KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 23:59
aurator () ID#257150:
non!

c'est mois!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 23:59
RJ (..... New E-mail Address For Me .....) ID#22849:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Just had a cable modem installed
At better than 3 MB download per second
Way fast, blazing speed, my hair blows back
Eyelids close to a slit, and cheeks puff out

Also even indeedy inasmuch so
I now have a new e-mail address

rjgold@home.com

Tis a simple and appropriate name
Suitable for this new gold market, yes?
Going to set up a web page soon
To post charts and other stuff

I'll post the URL when it is ready

OK

Oh yeah…… Happy New Year!!

A year is naught but within it brings
And most new years will offer no clue
To where it will take us
And how fast it will take us there
Whether we want it to or not

This, the last of a thousand
Is filled with mystery and potential
And great portends of good and evil

Will the new millenium bring chaos and mayhem?
Or will the changeover be more akin to
A lasagna burp after a big meal?
Not pleasant when first let loose
But soon enough it dissipates
And makes room for desert

To my extended ( and only ) internet family
I wish all here peace and success
May the gods of fortune give wings to your trades
May your family and loved ones be safe and prosper

For those in whose faces I have gotten
Forgive the sleight as heat of the moment
An realize all, we are joined together
Not just in our interest in the noble metals
And not in any arbitrary nationalistic sense

We ride this lonely and pale blue dot
On our elliptical path around our sun
And, as each year brings the stars
To the exact same spot in the sky,

I hope to see all here and more
At the beginning of the next
With glad stories and tidings
Of happiness and wealth
And other good stuff in 99

Brothers and Sisters of Truth and Curiosity
Thanks for everything this site has given me
And thanks to the folks who given it freely

We are all, to a soul, of Kitco blood, we

RJ



Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 23:59
Smithy ( ) ID#288353:
Ohhh baby!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 23:59
MM (Happy new year) ID#350195:
What time is it anyway?

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 23:57
Auric (aurator) ID#257312:

Good question.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 23:56
aurator () ID#257150:
I sit and wonder who will claim
The golden prize; everlasting fame,
The last post for ninety eight
Is mine, if I but wait, and wait and wait....

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 23:53
Auric (Happy Y1.999K All ) ID#257312:

It's here... Ohhh lordy.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 23:52
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Here's hoping that everyone will manage to have a happy and prosperous new year!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 23:46
John Disney (leaning on the everlasting arms ..) ID#24135:
for beansngold ..
life imitates art ..
greasepan as robert mitcham's evil preacherman ...
the phoney struggle between good and evil ..
.. hunting the kitco kids ...
I like it ..
you got copyrights ..

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 23:29
panda (Happy New Years all! And now to celebrate, look at who is throwing in the Y2K towel.) ID#184120:
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19981231/bs/millennium_2.html

U.S. Firms Prepare For The Worst Of Y2K

By Andrew Hay

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - The new millennium and its much-anticipated computer bug is still a year away but many U.S. companies are already

throwing in the towel.

They admit they won't be ready.


Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 23:29
JohnC (Best Wishes to all for the New Year) ID#24864:
Bart,
Thank you again for providing this Forum for another year.
To all Kitco ites, my family and I trust that 1999 will bring all that you may wish. Kind regards to all readers. John_C@Sunny_Brisbane

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 23:00
Forklift (by Yeats) ID#156161:
Copyright © 1998 Forklift/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
THE SECOND COMING

Turning and turning in the widening gyre

The falcon cannot hear the falconer;

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

The bloood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

The best lack all conviction, while the worst

Are full of passionate intensity.

Surely some revelation is at hand;

Surely the Second Coming is at hand.

The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out

When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi

Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert

A shape with lion body and the head of a man,

A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,

Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it

Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.

The darkness drops again; but now I know

That twenty centuries of stony sleep

Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,

And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,

Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 22:54
buff (Happy 1999 to ALL on this site and thanks Bart) ID#66144:
This is also a test due to rejects on recent post.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 22:14
tolerant1 (Hut, Namaste', gulp and a puff to ya...Happy New Year...this New Year you speak of is) ID#20359:
upon us eh... but of course we should... tolerant1@earthlink.net mail away and let us think of these things...

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 22:02
tolerant1 (the link...duh...) ID#20359:
http://homepages.enterprise.net/mlang/foghorn.html

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 22:00
arby (LI) ID#72316:
Where is this island that is long?


Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 21:58
tolerant1 (All of life is within...this link...a long time ago...posted by EB...to him a glass, don't grind it) ID#20359:
or nofing...a gulp and a puff........the following can only bring enlightenment http://homepages.enterprise.net/mlang/foghorn.html

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 21:29
Hut (Long Island Kitcoite Goldbug party) ID#400260:

Tolerant--we should think about a gathering of the LI Goldbugs next year as Mooney had in Toronto.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 21:18
beanzngold (Night of the Hunter) ID#212173:
@JD - I shall re-watch NotH, for now you come to mention it I realise that deliciously malevolent Mitchum *is* a prescient allegory for Greenspan.

Driven mad by his own greed, those love and hate knuckles on gold, the false voice of authority...

...only us kitco kids to save the truth.

got script for 99?

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 21:06
Nocte Volens (Happy New Year from Kamloops, B.C.) ID#390135:
May 1999 treat us goldbugs better than 1998 did.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 20:58
Donald (For the first time since the 30's the world economic problems are deflation and overcapacity) ID#26793:
http://comstockfunds.com/newsletter.cfm?category=CurrentOutlook&CFID=116881&CFTOKEN=6750

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 20:47
Speed (Happy new year y'all) ID#29048:
Thanks Bart!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 20:42
James (Was gazing out on the St. of Juan De Fuca , enjoying an ale & reflecting) ID#252150:
Copyright © 1998 James/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
on the surprises of 1998 & what will be in store for 99. We can be sure of turmoil & more surprises. My New Year's resolution is to never, ever have any pre-conceived investment ideas, & not get caught flat footed, but go with the flow. Although I made some good gains trading AU stocks, I lost even more because I was short tech stocks too early & too often. From here on I'm convinced that AG & RR are the masters of the universe until proven otherwise.

Listening to my Time Life cd of the greatest hits of 1950. I was 10 but remember them all well. This one is good advice for all of us:

Enjoy yourself, it's later than you think.
Enjoy yourself while you're still in the pink.
The years go by, faster than a wink.
Enjoy yourself, enjoy yourself, it's later than you think.

Going out for dinner with friends, then back to their place to greet the new year.

Happy New Year All!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 20:41
Snowball (New Year) ID#290213:
Happy New Year to all! May you each be blessed with health, love, happiness, wisdom, and good fortune through out the new year and your life.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 20:36
Donald (Derivative trading firm files for bankruptcy) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981231/u2.html

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 20:30
Schippi (Fidelity Gold UP) ID#105139:
FSAGX & FDPMX Hourly Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm
Frequecy chart of past Market declines
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/mrkdrop.htm

Best Wishes to All for the New Year !!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 20:22
tolerant1 (To one and all at Kitco with special thanks to Bart...a hearty, healthy and very ) ID#20359:
Happy New Year from the Island that is Long...gulp and a puff to ya...Namaste'

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 20:05
cherokee (@.......one.more.time.........yar.gullye.foyle........mystery.man........o2.....) ID#343449:

chop-asaki.....


may you live to see the next year.....
and may you have the answer to the hard question.....


chop-asaki kitco.......you know who you are.

cherokee!;....burning.the.ether.with.works.of.fire.....

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 20:02
Cobra (Hurricane is Coming!) ID#34459:
Copyright © 1998 Cobra /Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The Dow had a Fifth wave failure this past Tuesday, the 29th. From an Elliot Wave perspective, the failure to make a new closing high is significant. The closing action in the last 30 minutes of trading today should have set off alarms with all of the chartist. The Dow has completed all of the waves required to call it a complete top. It has been said here before but all one has to do is look at the dailey, the weekly, the monthly, the quarterly, and the yearly charts to see the sequences. When this profit taking episode gets underway, it may noy come back from the depths that it sinks to. The dow must rally or else it will fall away rapidly. Methinks the game is over. The Tulips are going to be Shorn and cash and Gold will be in fashion PDQ.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 19:57
Donald (Interest rate cut predicted for Euro soon) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981231/ro.html

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 19:56
strat (T1) ID#93241:
What's wrong with 6'5 out-of-work millionaires? Has a nice ring to it. I'm taller than that, definitely not a millionaire, and don't work in a circus ( although I make occasional posts to this circus ) . Happy New Year

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 19:52
MoReGoLd (@Very Interesting and Well Informed Article on the Gold Market Manipulation ) ID#348286:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Is Alan Greenspan Manipulating the Gold Market?

Almost to the day, the second great manipulation of the gold market began 132 years after the first.

On September 24, 1869, a pair of rascals named Jim Fisk and Jay Gould cornered the New York gold market, forcing short sellers to cover at any price. Around the same week of 1998, a man named Alan Greenspan began controlling the price of gold by lending the metal to investment bankers who sold it short each day to keep the market price from rising above $300 a share.

Fisk and Gould were out to make millions squeezing the short sellers. Greenspan's objective is to protect our economy. When the Fed head organized the bailout of the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund, a part of the problem was the fund's surprisingly big short position in gold.

Then it turned out that other hedge funds and institutional speculators were--and many still are--short of 8,000 to as much as 14,000 metric tons of gold, many times annual production. If even a few of these shorts were forced to cover their frantic buying, it would send gold skyrocketing by hundreds of dollars an ounce.

Can we prove this? No. But Fed Chairman Greenspan said that he would control the gold market if he had to. He spelled it out on July 24 in little-noticed testimony before the House Banking Committee. The chairman was trying to downplay the risk that some derivative contracts might produce a squeeze on short sellers.

He explained that there was no danger that the supply of oil to fulfill derivative contracts could be restricted. Then, he added, 'Nor can private counterparts restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.'

You can hardly get clearer than that. We should never have wondered why gold couldn't seem to break through the 300 level. The answer was right there in the Banking Committee hearings. It was buried in pages of boring testimony, but we have missed it. In other words, Greenspan told us two months in advance what the Federal Reserve would do to keep gold from going to the moon.

The market performance of the yellow metal shows clearly that it was controlled in a narrow band from 300 to about 305 from the last week of September--the 132nd anniversary of the 1869 gold corner--to the third week of October. Since then, control has kept gold bouncing from 292 to 300 and back again. And in the last three weeks the selling pressure has created a slight downtrend.

The possibility of manipulation of the gold market first hit us in the spring. We'd been predicting that gold would eventually recover from its long bear market, but every time it rallied the rally was aborted by sales of central bank gold.

It wasn't just the sales themselves that kept gold down, it was the way the central banks sold. Instead of carefully metering out their sales to get the best price and not disturb the market, they carelessly dumped their bullion and usually denied they were doing it.

At first we thought this was deliberate. Eventually we realized it simply reflected the attitude of the present generation of central bank bureaucrats. They hate markets, don't know how to deal with them and don't want to know.

As gold waterfalled down, producers continued to hedge the price of their future output and put further pressure on the market. Gloom reigned. It seemed to some of us that with inflation dead the naysayers might be right and gold was just another commodity. And then, in a move that rarely happens in any market all of the negative factors keeping the yellow metal down seemed to evaporate so abruptly that gold gained an amazing $20-an-ounce in only a couple of trading sessions, a $35 jump from the lows.

It rocketed straight up in a way not seen since the great gold bubble of the early 1980s. Gold rose as far as $315 and then settled back around $308. To traders and portfolio managers the question was: is the move for real or only another fake out?

The spring rally wound up going nowhere. It spent the summer trending down, down, down--until September, when it came back to life again with a sudden runup from its 18-year low of 277.90 to 300 in 10 days of heavy trading.

The buying was enthusiastic enough to shrug off the Czech central bank sale of 31 metric tons of gold thrown at the market right in the face of its upward surge. At the same time, the central bank of Luxembourg said it had sold most of its reserve, perhaps 10 metric tons.

The market ignored both sales. The problem for gold bears was that world currencies and its stock markets were all tanking, banks were reporting huge trading losses and Russia was coming apart.

Why was the barbarous relic moving up? Because people all over the world were beginning to worry whether the money in their pockets and purses was really as sound as all the central bankers claimed.

Without admitting any danger, the European Parliament backed calls for the creation of a 100-Euro gold coin as legal tender once the European Union's single currency becomes widely circulated. Sales of gold coins around the world were surging. U.S. bullion coin demand reached an 11-year high.

There were rumors that an Asian-type International Monetary Fund might be launched based on a gold-backed Japanese Yen. Indian gold demand was 19% higher for the first three quarters of the year over the same period of 1997. Demand for gold was up in Southeast Asia and in South Korea.

None of these factors was crucial; but they indicated that gold was sneaking its way back into fashion. And this was bad news for Greenspan & Company. So, it's reported that Washington got on the horn and asked Asian governments not to be aggressive buyers of the yellow metal while the Fed was trying to engineer a soft landing for the short sellers.

The Swiss government cooperated by asking its Parliament to approve sale of 1,300 metric tons of gold. The lawmakers cooperated but the people will get to vote on it in 2000.

It's reported that the countryside Swiss are not in favor of lessening the strength of the world's hardest currency. Even worse for the Fed, it's rumored that the gold backing of the Euro may be raised from the currently planned 15% to 30-35%. France has strongly pushed for this to make sure that the Euro will be strong enough to rival the dollar.

It's intriguing that half a dozen of the biggest investment banks have issued reports on gold in the past couple of weeks. Bear Stearns weighed in with a handsomely printed 86-pager announcing that precious metals are 'back on the radar screen,' and gold is a 'disappointing metal showing signs of life.'

Chief among the reasons given for this is that there has been less exploration and development, which has reduced supply, mining company costs have been cut, and gold is underowned and underrepresented in investment portfolios. The report also suggests that it may no longer be easy for speculators to lease gold and sell it.

Prudential Securities' study says 'we are warming up to gold' because there is more upside than downside in the next year. It forecasts an average price of $320 an ounce for 1999 compared with $297 this year. The Pru will not be surprised to see short covering rallies as hedge funds unwind their positions. It also notes the possibility that the European Central Bank will increase the percentage of gold in its foreign reserves.

Salomon Smith Barney says it's positive toward the gold sector and expects the metal will breech the $300 an ounce resistance level and average $350 next year as fears of central bank sales subside and short pressure eases.

Morgan Stanley Dean Witter's gold analyst, Douglas M. Cohen, comes down on the bear side of the fence. No crisis seems able to trigger a rise in gold and continued central bank lending are his principal negatives. Indeed, he says that Venezuela, Germany, Portugal, Austria, and Switzerland are new entrants into the gold lending market.

Old friend Bill Murphy, a veteran gold trader, who writes on the metal under the name 'Midas' [www.lemetropolecafe.com] says there's a cabal of investment banks who are leasing and shorting in cooperation with the Fed and others to cap gold at $300 an ounce. e believes that Goldman Sachs is a leader of the group which includes J.P. Morgan. Perhaps that's the reason, says Bill, that Morgan issued a report predicting that the price of gold will fall in early 1999 before steadying up later in the year.

If being negative on gold is an indication of membership in the short selling gang, then Lehman Brothers must be a suspect. A week ago, Lehman issued a flash meeting report titled 'Reiterating our Bearish View of Gold Equities.' In somewhat snotty tones, the report says, 'gold equities continue to discount a significant and sustainable rise in gold prices as if it were inevitable. It isn't.' Lehman maintains its long-term average gold price forecast of $290 an ounce, ending the note by pointing out proudly that this price forecast is 'the lowest on the Street.'

Though there's a ceiling on the price of gold created by Fed-facilitated borrowing and short selling, there appears to be a floor under the metal that keeps its price from collapsing below the $295 area. Each time gold hits the floor, it bounces just a little and then hits the ceiling. We assume that the floor consists of official buying by central banks. Poland and Russia have bought openly; China and Japan are believed to be buying and it's likely there are others. In addition there's growing private demand for gold in Asia as a shield against currency devaluation.

With gold unable to climb, it may seem strange that the gold-oriented mutual funds have recently performed so well. According to CDA/Wiesenberger Editor Stephanie Kendall, the month of September was truly golden for these funds with eight of the top 10 jumping over 50% in total return for the month. The reason: bullion did relatively well during the month and gold equities historically move three times as much as the price of gold. The move can be up or down. For September, Fidelity Select Gold posted a hefty return of 54.93%. But its year-to-date return is a minus 9.1%.

No one knows when gold will trade in a free market. The amount of the metal sold short by speculators is huge and the Fed and its associates may work at the unwinding for some time. And even when all shorts have been covered, the Fed may find itself riding a tiger wondering how to get off without being eaten.

The gold corner in 1869 only lasted days. Fisk and Gould had bribed the brother-in-law of President Grant to use his influence to keep the Treasury from releasing any of its reserves. But, the game was lost when Washington changed its mind and overwhelmed the corner with Federal gold.

We don't see a quick and easy end to the present control.

John Tompkins, a frequent contributor to Reader's Digest and former regional business correspondent for Time
Money Talks, http://www.talks.com

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 19:41
Donald (33% of Russians live in official poverty; inflation rate at 84% for 1998) ID#26793:
http://cnn.com:80/WORLD/europe/9812/31/PM-Russia-Economy.ap/index.html

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 19:32
2BR02B? () ID#266105:

t1- is that 12-14 year olds will not be able to support the music and film industry

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So that's why the ten most popular anything and its intended
audience is not one I'm of. And don't dangle your participles
in public.

Hippy new year, T. Gotta run.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 19:32
lsc (Forecross Corp.) ID#278287:
Gibbous
As I said before I am not a dreamer I am a speculator/investor .Those who dream are haunted.I am in this with my eyes open,not too long ago this stock sold in the $20,s.Go to www.forecross.com..And remember one thing A Good Speculation is Worth a Lifetime of Hardwork.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 19:26
Donald (Australian gold mining news) ID#26793:
http://www.smh.com.au:80/news/9812/30/text/business7.html

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 19:20
tolerant1 (The Hatt, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...and another thing...one of the dumbest) ID#20359:
decisions at the end of 98 will be the NBA strike or whatever you want to call it...believe me...a bunch of 6'5 out of work millionaires will only be able to get jobs at the Circus and the wages...

ah,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,
ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha...

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 19:17
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
XAU/Spot Ratio = .226. The 233 day moving average is .247. A year ago the ratio was .257, two years ago it was .317, three years ago it was .310

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 19:14
tolerant1 (The Hatt, Namaste' Gulp and a puff and a Happy New Year to ya...I agree and one) ID#20359:
thing folks have no comprehension of is how fast it will hit...one of my favorite aspects of the downturn is that 12-14 year olds will not be able to support the music and film industry...and that makes me one happy camper...

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 19:12
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Dow/Gold Ratio = 31.88. The 233 day moving average is 29.53. One year ago the Ratio was 27.40, two years ago it was 17.51, three years ago it was 13.20

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 19:05
The Hatt (Payback Time for the U.S.) ID#294232:
Copyright © 1998 The Hatt/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The U.S. Government is about to get its payback for being so arrogant to the world in terms of being the super power. Its citizens should assume a crash position as once the entire world realizes as Japan, China and Europe has that the U.S. is near bankrupt the almighty USD will crash! The bubble is about to burst and Clinton better hope he can get the trial over with first or he will find his sorry ass in jail, where it belongs! The EU will dominate from Monday forward and look for oil to begin trading for euros not USD. Watch for Rubin to resign shortly after the new year and Greenspan will follow. As you can probably tell I am not to upset about these events as IMHO the U.S. deserves everthing it gets and more. Sell all stocks and transfer the USD to gold and euros will replace the mania of buying on the dips. Yuppies and Baby Boomers are about to get a tough lesson in economics. May the words a new era burn in hell...

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 19:01
Tortfeasor (Putting my money where my mouth is) ID#37463:
Happy New Years all. The site is wonderful as usual. I have plunked down another $5,000 on gold shares in my 401 ( k ) account. I hope that I will be happier a year from now than I am about inestment in gold shares a year ago which have languished for 365 days in mediocrity. Get after it in 199 gold.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 19:00
rhody (@ Mooney: I agree that silver is less likely to tank ) ID#411440:
than gold as it less manipulated. But if the CRB goes to 160,
I think we would likely see $3.30 silver and $200 gold. Mind you,
the Canadian dollar would likely be worth .30, so both silver
and gold would have retained better buying power than paper
Canadian dollars.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 18:58
kapex (That's thoroughly enjoyed. I sure hope my analysis is better than my spelling!) ID#237256:
.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 18:55
kapex (To Bart and All!! Thanks for this wonderful forum! I have throughly) ID#237256:
Copyright © 1998 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
enjoyed the time that I have spent here. Happy New Year to ALL!!
Thought's for 1999!
Here is a year end look at some various charts and indicators. The first few are as Bearish as I have seen! Look at the Dows momentum and relative strength, as well as the Tripple top! I do not hear anyone calling for a top here like we did in July! .........TOP!!!!..........
I said after the October Lows that the rally would be breathtaking! I had no idea that almost all bearish analysts would throw in the towel and be looking for higher prices. This is IMHO the most dangerous market that I have ever seen! Just unbelievable!! On the other hand Gold and Silver look like they are or have completed a 2nd wave and will explode to the upside! As far as I am concerned the NYSE composite, the Russell 2000, the Value Line are all still in or completing a 2nd wave. My guess is that it's complete, Now!! Hindsight will tell which indexes were the true indicators of the stock market.
Silver, ( basis March ) in case you haven't noticed broke it's downtrend line from late March 98!


http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?w=600&period=180&chart=bar&chart1=ma&i0=6&i1=3&i2=4&i3=2&s=linear&symbol=%24indu&time=day
.
http://decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/CurrentPC.html
.
http://decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/ADCurrent.html
.
And some bullish charts!!
http://decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/XAU.html
.
http://decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/GoldSilver.html

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 18:44
Mooney* (Tomorrow, tomorrow, tomorrow - Annie!) ID#350194:
Hey - It's special and I have to correct my mistakes!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 18:41
Mooney* (Back To the Future!) ID#350194:
Envy - I won't listen to you for investment advice EVER again, especially when you say such crazy things as: ... CRB could see 160, silver off
a buck or more,... Blasphemer! ( ? ) Silver goes back to the lows of '93 ( ? ) and I'll trade my houses in, lock, stock and barrel!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 18:38
Rumpled (@Snowbird--I was only joking. I have worked all over Canada, and unfortunately the comments that ) ID#411251:
I've heard from people living outside the Maritimes, about Maritimers, were
not made in jest!
It's sad but true, that the rest of Canada, knows as much about the Atlantic Provinces, as the Merkans know about Canada!

HAPPY NEW YEARS!!!!


Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 18:25
rhody (@k Selby: Dabchick posts lease rates for gold and silver) ID#411440:
most days at 4:00 am. They were interesting this morning.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 18:18
Lou_Jan (New Year Reflections) ID#320136:
Copyright © 1998 Lou_Jan/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
With the advent of the Euro, it will be an attempt on the part
of the European nations to pull as much as they can of the
economic blanket over to their side and away from the American
economy by way of inducing their nationals to unload American
investments, and invest in their own economies and their own
stock markets, and if necessary, to increase the backing of
their currency with more gold. You could see as a result, stiff
competition between the two remaining successful economic
powers to remain ahead of the game. One or both of these
powers are going to see their economies shrink. It is
difficult to determine the extent, but it'll definitely be
downward, also depending upon the remaining confidence of its
investors.

My feelings are that at best we'll see a shrinkage of both
of these economies, and possibly, if it reaches panic
proportions, then possibly we've got a deflationary depression
and a return to the precious metals as the last remaining
store of value. And who knows how high the prices can go?

My belief is that sometime during the first quarter 99 we
should begin to see the playout of this forecast by way of
the U.S. and European stockmarkets -- the two remaining
robust world markets.

Until now it would appear that most economic pundits have
regarded the euro as simply a method to facilitate the
efficiency of their various currencies into one single
monetary unit, and ignoring what I believe the primary
motivation is to challenge the mighty U.S. dollar for the
purpose of keeping more of the European assets invested in
the European economy as opposed to the U.S. economy, stock
and bond markets, and American currency.

*******

May the New Year bring forth our long awaited PM MESSIAH and
grant each one of us health, peace and prosperity, for ever
and ever, AMEN and AWOMEN!!!!!!!

********

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 18:16
Silverbaron (Hoping that Y1.999K will be a banner year for Gold and Silver) ID#290456:

HAPPY NEW YEAR, ALL!

GO GOLD!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 18:08
Mooney* (T.O. Kitcoite meeting + other ramblings! If I don't crawl out of bed tommorrow - HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL!) ID#350194:
Copyright © 1998 Mooney*/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I still owe everyone a detailed accounting of the Dec. 12th 1998 meeting of 13. Yes folks!, 13 Kitcoite Goldbugs gathered on that historic day in one location ( somewhere in downtown Toronto, Canada ) to chat and party.
I doubt that I can do a 4 hour Kitcoite luncheon meeting, and a 6 hour
Kitcoite pub crawl, justice, by posting a 10 minute precis of said gatherings. Suffice it to say that it was an amazing experience and a grand time was had by all present. Aside from the tremendous discussions the spirit of giving exibited all year long on our Kitco website was certainly witnessed live and in person by all who attended, as no less than five of the participants brought sufficient gifts to pass a personal souvenier of the occasion to all others present.
( This was continuing a tradition established at the first Kitcoite meeting ever held, on July 30th 1998, when aurator graciously sent a copy of Charles Mackay's famous book, 'Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds' ( written in 1841 ) , halfway around the world to be presented at that first meeting 'for the best golden speech'. Mooney* presented that award in the presence of Rhody, Reify and wife, and Steve in TO, to Sam_A. It wasn't long before Sam_A ( Not Sam ) had a chance to return a favour in aurator's direction by picking up a 24k 'pig' figurine ( that aurator's girl hankered after ) while he was on a business trip in Korea, and sending it to aurator in New Zealand. Sam_A was so enamoured with his mission ( and the Golden Pig ) that he ended up purchasing two, keeping one for himself. He showed this 24k golden pig to all at the Dec. meeting and now everybody wants one ( especially Farmer and his wife! ;- ) ) )
So much happened at the Dec. meeting that I hardly know where to begin. The group included Rhody, Steve in TO ( pub crawl only, due to inescapable demands by others ) , MO in TO, Sam_A ( Not Sam ) , Selby, Mooney*, Bmacd, accompanied by longtime goldbug father Art, Farmer, accompanied by his lovely spouse ) , Mike Stewart, Ali ( whom travelled 2,000 miles specifically to attend, thus tying Bill in Oregon's 2nd place record at the summer meeting in New York ) , and last, but not least, our own Canadian - 6Pak - who managed to further Mooney*'s appreciation of historic Toronto architecture ( old city hall - remember 6Pak? ) sometime after midnight while searching for our horseless buggies.
There were quite a few others who wanted to attend but there were especially four possible participants who really wanted to attend whose stories need be told as they couldn't make it at the last moment: one a local Toronto Bay Street Exec. was called away by other pressing matters at the last minute. Glenn, in N.Y. city, couldn't get off work on the Friday, Tolerant1 had lingering health problems ( ouchh! ) and the other, Quixoticl1, from Concord N.H., had an extra special ( sad ) story. He was REALLY looking forward to it, and had been in almost daily contact with me discussing the upcoming event. This story, ( hope you don't mind the publicity Quixoticl ) , needs our sympathy. He was on the way to the airport and decided to stop and buy a present for the group, well, why don't we hear it in his own words,
...Stephen, Bad news...I had a minor fender-bender on the way to Logan Airport. I was coming out of Kelly's Restaurant with two lobster rolls for the trip, when a myopic blue-hair from Boston went through a stop sign. The rest is history. I have just returned from Boston, with my tail between my legs...as I had to call my wife to pick me up from the towing service. I'm not hurt, thank god. The worst part of all this, the crustacean morsels ended up all over the dash and floor. I'm still a bit shaken, but much better off than the lady who went through the stop sign,...
Please forward my apologies to the group. I was really excited
about finally meeting some fellow Kitco-aholics. It appears that I'll
have to wait till next time....

AAR - A Fantastic time was had by all present and I'm sure we are all looking forward to the next meeting. Anytime more than two Kitcoite's meet anywhere in the world a report should be filed here for prosterity! Prost!

Anybody else who was at that gathering, please share some of the moments! Ali's personal stories of the German inflation along with his 'fiat' example were most interesting! Rhody's 'without knowledge - you're toast' speech was also memorable! Help me out people!

HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 18:06
James (Caper@I know a few B.C. fishermen (trollers) & I can't imagine them clubbing) ID#252150:
Copyright © 1998 James/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
baby seals for a living. They're too laid back & mellow from the great B.C. grass.*G*

I was stationed in Halifax, Sydney & Summerside. PEI was my favorite place.

I have fond memories of the maritimes & don't doubt that most of the people are hard workers, but think that too many of them succumbed to the easy, unsustainable life style that the politicians institutionalized. Unfortunately 1000s of those people have never known any other life & are going to have a difficult time adjusting to the new reality.

No doubt about it. The poiticians/bureaucrats have pretty well destroyed the fishing industry on both coasts.

Parts of B.C. are hurting because of the commodities slump but Victoria & Vancouver & even the Okanagan valley will always do well because we have the best climate. Victoria was named by Conde Naste as one of the top 10 tourist destinations in the world & Whistler is now the worls's most popular ski resort. We already have the Canadian Peso, so may become Mexico north.*G*

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 18:03
snowbird (Rumpled: Us lazy bums in BC have never seen your money!) ID#285392:
We just wish that we would not be forced to send our money to you. We get 3 billion from the Feds in return for the 11 billion we send to them. The Maritimes and Quebec being the happy recipients.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 18:00
GIBBOUS (@Isc---Picked up some Forecross shares, during the week. Sure hope your hunch is right!!) ID#432395:


Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 17:54
Earl (Envy:) ID#227238:
You're an astute individual and I don't disagree with any part of your forecast but, if that's the view you hold I believe you have left out the concluding element. ..... REVOLUTION.

A forecast of such dimension as that would, necessarily, imply dire consequences. ...... If you have the time, I would appreciate it if you would expand on your reasoning.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 17:46
Envy (1999 Predictions) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sure, I'll take my chances *grin*. My 1999 predictions are: Gold and Oil haven't seen the bottom. Japan's Nikkei will hit 10000. South America will devalue. Interest rates will continue to fall. More trade barriers around the world. Increased violence in middle east and asia. More layoffs in manufacturing and production, especially in the United States, credit crunch in some sectors. Dollar will soar vs. everything. Real estate prices will fall especially in rural areas. Consumer confidence will be off. I think this will be the year of the dollar, the year you don't want to be making, mining, building, or selling stuff. This will be the year for cash. CRB could see 160, silver off a buck or more, new housing starts down. Increasing labor tensions around the world. That's what I think anyway.

NEVER LISTEN TO ENVY FOR INVESTMENT ADVICE

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 17:42
lsc (OIL) ID#278287:
OLD GOLD
If the price of crude goes 10/20% lower and stays there internal instability[revolution]will embroil the Middle Eastern Shiekoms.
Bullish for oil and gold.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 17:16
Envy (Market the Magician) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Like the magician who fools you with his sleight of hand, the stock market, so dazzling on the surface, is far weaker than it appears. More and more, the market, as we move into 1999, looks like a classic text-book description of a major top. Rather than being distracted by the magical pyrotechnics of the internet and other technology stocks, keep your eye on the factors that really matter; value, earnings and deflation, speculation, and breadth.

http://comstockfunds.com/newsletter.cfm?category=CurrentOutlook

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 17:16
OLD GOLD (inflation) ID#242326:
I notice that soime magazines -- probably to disguise price increases -- now quote one price for the magazine, but you must pay extra for delivery. I wonder if the government bean counters are picking up this kind of thing.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 17:15
Who Cares? (LGB - The Clinton Clone UnCloaking....) ID#242214:
Dang. I *knew* LGB was really a Clinton liberal.

Us - Loral sold secrets to China

LGB - So what? Everybody else does it. I only care about my stock

Man. I'm definitely buying more platinum. Can't trust NOBODY anymore. : )

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 17:05
BillD (@LGB...AND jOKES (with a little j)) ID#263456:

LGB...You are a fine fellow...and I enjoy your posts ( even if you did give secrets to China ) ...but I can tell you that you are not on the joke circuit...those jokes are
O...L...D...OLD...

Happy New Year to you and all Kitcoites..

cheers

bd

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 17:04
Mole (The Inflationary Euro) ID#34883:
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?FS=%3Ch3%3EEuro+Inflation

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 17:01
OLD GOLD (Happy New Year!) ID#242326:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved


I have switched my primary investment interest from gold to oil service stocks, but still follow this thread closely. I'm sure gold will move big time some day, but I am much more certain about oil service stocks in 1999 than I am about gold shares. ( oil and oil service stocks surged today ) Glad that Guru Mike Sheller is as bullish on oil as I am.

I view oil service as an investment with huge prospective returns over the next two years. But gold is and always will be a gamble. Still with RJ bullish, 1999 may be the year when the gamble pays off big time.

Man of the year -- MATT DRUDGE


MEMO ON THE MARGIN

December 31, 1998

Man of the Year: Matt Drudge

Memo: To Website Fans, Browsers, Ordinary Journalists
From: Jude Wanniski
Re: The Citizen Journalist

If you only heard the audience response when Matt Drudge spoke at the National Press Club last
June, you may have thought it was Saddam Hussein or Pol Pot they were kind of applauding
as they held their noses. There are individual journalists who like the guy and some who admire
him, but as an institution, the national press corps absolutely hates Matt Drudge. Here is a fellow
who was never trained by a J-school, never worked for a newspaper or electronic media, got his
first bits of news out of trash baskets, and now dominates journalism on the Internet with his
awesome Drudge Report. Fringe reporters are supposed to stay in the corner and emote via
low-circulation, no-advertising magazines printed on cheap paper. They are not supposed to rival
Playboy.com in the number of people who tune in each day to get a look at what they are
saying.

Whatever the disposition of the impeachment trial of President Clinton, history will record that
its earliest developments were driven by Citizen Drudge. What he had to say about Monica
Lewinsky and Linda Tripp and Lucianne Goldberg was so outrageous that it had to be no less
than 90% bunk. And when he reported that Sid Blumenthal was a wife-beater, and had to
retract the blatant falsehood in 24 hours and apologize, we were sure his reports probably were
uniform in their irresponsibility. Now, a year later, Citizen Drudge has been vindicated to a point
where it is fair to ask why the Responsible, Mainstream Press -- the trained professionals, the
Pulitzer Prizewinners, the Best and Brightest of the Fourth Estate were caught with their pants
down, so to speak.

Drudge knows the answer and he talked about it in an oblique sort of way at the press club. The
Establishment Press -- the mainstream press -- serves the status quo. If it leaves the prescribed
limits of the mainstream, it upsets the set relationships of all those who share the core of political
power. It shies from that which destabilizes because divergence carries risks that are ruinous to
relationships and career paths. As a young journalist in Washington in the 1960s, I remember
learning this lesson from a veteran Newsweek correspondent, Sam Schaffer, who told me that
there were things he could write and things he could not. If a controversial story appeared on the
front page of the NYTimes, he could write it for his magazine with some narrow
embellishments. Otherwise, it would be spiked. He told me that he attended a House
subcommittee meeting a few months earlier at which a vote was taken that could be interpreted as
favoring abortion. He wrote the story up and sent it to New York where the editors said it looked
suspicious and that it could not run. He mulled it over and took it to a reporter for the
NYTimes, Bill Blair if memory serves. Blair checked it out and it appeared the next day in
column one of the Times, at which point Sam’s editor called and asked for a new take on the
story.

It is not clear that the Lewinsky story would have been pushed into the mainstream if it were not
for Drudge and the leverage he got at the Internet. The fact that his information was free, timely
and not constrained by hard-copy publishing schedules was only one element in the importance
of the Drudge Report. The man is clearly responsible, as he first demonstrated to me in the
matter of Sidney Blumenthal. I’d seen his first report about Blumenthal being a wife beater and
although I’ve known Sidney since 1980, when he came to interview me for the Boston Globe
magazine in connection with the Reagan presidential campaign, it puzzled me to learn he was a
wife beater. It didn’t fit, but who knows what goes on in a man’s private life? But I was pleased
to see the following day when the Drudge Report came in that Drudge had apologized and did
so with obvious remorse at the boo-boo he had made by relying upon on unreliable source and
perhaps getting his husbands mixed up. Certainly no harm was done to Blumenthal because of
the immediate retraction and apology, which not many established newspapers would be so
quick to own up to. In fact, it was dismaying to me to see Sidney go after Drudge with a lawsuit,
supposedly acting on the principle that irresponsible journalists like Drudge who would report
the lies Monica was telling about her boss should be taught a lesson. Of course, we later learned
that it was Sidney’s boss who lied to him, going as far as to tell him Monica was the culprit, that
she had come on to him, threatened him, stalked him. It was upon learning of Sid’s testimony
before the federal grand jury that I suspended my support of the President and decided he had to
be impeached and have his arguments adjudicated by the Senate.

If there had to a Citizen Journalist break the ice on the Internet, I’m glad it was Matt Drudge,
because it turns out he is a principled man. I’ve come to trust his reports more than I have trusted
the reports of the major media in many areas. The officers of the press club tried every which
way to find out what evil mechanism exists to motivate him. It drives them nuts that he doesn’t
seem interested in making money, but gives away his awesome Drudge Report for free. He
still lives in his same little apartment in Hollywood, drives an old car, and wears the same
battered fedora and scuffed shoes he had a year ago. Several times he had to assure the newsies
that he is not financed by Richard Mellon Scaife, the amiable right-wing moneybags who is
interviewed by John Kennedy in the current issue of George. I suppose he does make some
money now with his occasional radio and television work, and I hope in the end he and the
Internet find a way that he can make enough money so that he doesn’t have to worry about it, at
the level, say, of a Walter Winchell.

He will be good for the print media and for the electronic media if he maintains his own sense of
humility and proportion, which he displayed at the press club event. In predicting that when the
dust settles, there will be 300 million reporters coming at us from Cyberspace, he meant that
everyone who has a bit of news can find an outlet for it, that it can’t be bottled up by an
Establishment press that serves the forces of the status quo. When the NYTimes editors first
apologized for having to report the Clinton scandals because they could not longer wish them
away, they had to admit that it was the depth of the fringe media, especially on the net, that made
the news impossible to ignore. Drudge knows about John Peter Zenger and seems to have
studied the wild-and-woolly press of early America, when our society was definitely at its most
fluid. The establishment then sat in London, with its royalist supporters in the colonies, and it
was the Matt Drudge’s of that era who cooked the soup of Revolution. The Founding Fathers
wrote a Constitution to protect the freedoms of the Drudges of the new nation and thank God
they live o

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 16:53
CPO@AU (all Y2K /power watchers.) ID#329186:
Copyright © 1998 CPO@AU/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
( c ) Copyright Daily Record and Sunday Mail Ltd ( Scotland )
STORM SPARKS MAJOR NUCLEAR ALERT AT PLANT
A full scale emergency was declared at a scots nuclear station when fierce winds knocked out the power to cool its reactors.
last night the plant remained shut after bosses pressed the alarm button on Sunday.
They could'nt restart the back-up generators,vital to keep the reactors two cores from overheating.
Frightened staff were called from their homes and battled for five hours to manually try to reset the safety systems before the cores went ctitical.
A boss was also rushed under police escort to Hunterston B,in Ayshire,it was claimed.
The astonishingsituation - sparking fears of a Chernobl-type reactor meltdown - happened after storms took out the national grid twice in the space of 12 hours.
The first time - at 11pm on saturday - the emergency back-up generators in the nuclear plant switched on automatically.

But there was not enough staff on duty to manually reset them before the grid went down a second time at 11am on Sunday - leaving plant bosses helpless.

An investigation is being carried out by the Nuclear Installations Inspectorate.
A spokeswoman said last night Two of our inspectors were called in as soon as the alarm was raised on Sunday and our investigators continue.
There was no power to the system that cools the reactor for a number of hours and we do consider this a serious incident.
Its a major embarrassment for Scottish Nuclear, who claim their safety systems cover all eventualities.
Roseanna Cunningham,the SNP's envireonment spokeswoman,said Holiday period or not, you can't afford to take risks with nuclear energy.
Questions must be answered on why Hunterston B was understaffed.
Earlier this year, the back-up at Dounreay,in caithness,failed when a digger cut power cables.
That distater was one of the reasons Scots Secretary Donald dewar ordered the plant closed.

A Hunterston worker,who asked not to be named,said the situation had been terrifying.
He said:The sirens were sounding all over the plant and there were police,fire and ambulances crew arriving.We didn't know what was going on.
it is the most serious incident we have seen.
Kevin Dunion,director of friends of the Earth Scotland,called for a full inquiry into the role of management.
He said people would be astounded to find fail safe procedures hadn't been worked out for the holiday.

my comment
Who the hell will believe we are fully compliant & tested whenever it is said.?




Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 16:52
Envy (Germany Urges Interest Rate Cuts) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
BONN, Germany ( AP ) -- German Finance Minister Oskar Lafontaine repeated his support of further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank on Thursday, just hours before the launch of the euro. In an article published in Germany's business daily Handelsblatt, Lafontaine said interest rate cuts in early December in the 11 countries joining the euro were a right step. The coordinated cuts on Dec. 3 lowered the ECB's key interest rate to 3 percent. Since taking office in October, Lafontaine has stirred controversy with repeated calls for lower rates to help Europe's governments fight chronically high unemployment and flagging growth.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn06.htm
--
Tim the Enchanter: Follow! But! follow only if ye be men of valor, for the entrance to this cave is guarded by a creature so foul, so cruel that no man yet has fought with it and lived! Bones of four fifty men lie strewn about its lair. So, brave knights, if you do doubt your courage or your strength, come no further, for death awaits you all with nasty big pointy teeth.
King Arthur: What an eccentric performance.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 16:44
Bill Buckler (The Seventy Cent Year) ID#256381:
According to both CBS Marketwatch and Quote.com, spot future ( gcg9 ) Gold closed 1998 at $US 289.20. It closed 1997 at 289.90. Down 70 cents on the year.

Name me another investment which would have generated so much debate/discussion while moving a grand total of 0.24% over an entire year - at least here on Kitco

Happy New Year to all - and especially to Bart!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 16:40
Envy (Japan Hopeful on 1999 Growth Target) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
TOKYO ( AP ) -- Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi expressed hope on Thursday that the world's second-largest economy would meet a modest government growth target next year, but stopped short of promising a full-fledged recovery. Japan has slipped into its deepest recession in decades and unemployment has hit a postwar high. The government estimates the economy will shrink 2.2 percent in fiscal 1998, which ends in March. Obuchi said the new fiscal year -- which begins in April -- would be better. We are making every effort to achieve our target of 0.5 percent growth, Obuchi said at a New Year's press conference. The government's target of 0.5 percent economic growth for fiscal 1999 is its lowest forecast since World War II.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0w.htm
--
Tim the Enchanter: He's got huge, sharp-- he can leap about-- look at the bones!
King Arthur: Go on, Boris. Chop his head off!
Boris: Right! Silly little bleeder. One rabbit stew comin' right up!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 16:39
Realistic (A year ago today (educational reality check!)) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Wed Dec 31 1997 18:25
vronsky ( Fęte 500 ) ID#426220:

In anticipation of $500 Gold in 1998, golden-eagle plans to organize the “Fęte 500” to celebrate the momentous occasion. Therefore, we had one of the best French Chefes in southern France DESIGN OUR FEAST, SENIOR Daniel. He suggests the following for our approval...

Date: Wed Dec 31 1997 12:16
farfel ( Oh, baby, my proboscis is tingling again...GOLD SHORT SQUEEZE ALERT ) ID#28585:
I woke up this morning with my nose feeling pretty numb,
Then I opened the drapes and felt the sweet warmth of the sun,
In no time at all, my nose started tingling,
And my heart got to singing,
I know the gold short squeeze has already begun!


Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 16:26
2BR02B? (growlll) ID#266105:

http://comstockfunds.com/newsletter.cfm?category=CurrentOutlook&CFID=116881&CFTOKEN=6750

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 16:25
ERLE (Stillwater closes 1998 at 40.00) ID#190411:
A fine effort by SWC management and miners.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 16:23
Envy (China's Import Checks Raise Surplus) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
SHANGHAI, China ( AP ) -- New financial controls imposed by China on its trading companies have drastically cut the flow of imports, contributing to a big increase in the trade surplus. Although exports barely grew in 1998 because of the Asian economic crisis, China's trade surplus rose 11 percent to $45 billion, according to official figures released Wednesday. The new rules, imposed in July to protect Chinese foreign currency reserves, make it harder for companies to get import financing and licenses.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0a.htm
--
An exploding missile from China in the escalating international trade war.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 16:22
ArmGold (RJ) ID#247428:
Sorry for the late response been busy getting my fish thank in order :- ) . I got the treasure chest fully working with bubbles and nice Gold and Platinum coins ( Grin ) . Thank you for taking your time and responding with a very well thought out post. Thank you for the contect names and places to search for more info. Some day I will return the favor, a day when I'm not so green.

Best Wishes to you and yours.

Kind Regards Friend
ArmGold

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 16:18
Rumpled (Them lazy bums in B.C. just don't want to work. I'll be damned if I'm going to send) ID#402236:
them any of my hard earned Maritime money!!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 16:15
Envy (Economists Predict a Slowdown) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- It may be a new year but the economic forecast for 1999 has an old familiar ring. Economists predict distinctly slower growth, somewhat faster inflation, slightly higher unemployment and, at best, lackluster stock-market gains. I like to call 1999 a 'bumpy soft landing,' said economist Nicholas Perna of Fleet Financial Group in Hartford, Conn. It will be a soft landing in the sense that it's a better-than-even-money bet that we're going to avoid a recession and bumpy in the sense that in some parts of the economy, namely manufacturing, it's going to feel a lot like a recession.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0o.htm

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 16:13
LGB (Talk about FIAT money......) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
This modestly successful busnessman, a multimillionaire, held a meeting with his three closest and most trusted friends. He handed each of them an envelope, each of which held One million, ten thousand dollars in U.S.currency, ......$100 bills.

The man explained to his friends, that he wanted them to hold the envelopes full of 1 million cash each, amd place them into his casket upon his demise so that he could take it with him.

To compensate his friends, he had placed that extra $10,000 in each envelope which they could keep for their trouble. His friends all signed an agreement with him, and assured him that he could count on them.

Sure enough, the man met an untimely demise a year later. At the funeral, each of the man's three friends ceremoniously placed their envelopes into the man's casket, just before it was closed and lowered into the ground.

As the 3 friends walked away sadly, friend 1 remarked.. I feel so guilty... I had these medical bills and wanted a new car so I borrowed $150,000 from the envelope and never had a chnace to pay it back..

The second friend piped up and siad YOU feel guilty.... I was oin the verge of bankruptcy and foreclosure...I borrowed $250,000 from my envelope and didn't get a chance to pay it back.

Then they both turned to friend three and said What about you/ You must feel REALLY REALLY guilty...it was obvious your envelope was totally flat. How much did you take?

Friend three looked taken aback in wounded dismay as he replied..

No way! What do you take me for? Every penny of that money is there. MY envelope has a check written out to our friend for the full million!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 16:13
Selby (rhody) ID#286230:
Where do you get the lease rate numbers from?

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 16:10
Envy (Jobless Claims Rise Unexpectedly) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Analysts say it's too soon to tell if last week's unexpectedly big jump in unemployment claims is a sign that tough times abroad are hitting U.S. companies harder. I wouldn't read too much into it, said Mark M. Zandi an economist with Regional Financial Associates in West Chester, Pa. We'll have to see early next year if these high unemployment claims are maintained. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits during the week ending the day after Christmas rose by 79,000 to a seasonally adjusted 368,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the biggest weekly increase since July of 1992. It pushed claims to their highest level since summer, when a General Motors strike temporarily boosted unemployment. The department offered no explanation, but noted that winter storms plagued some parts of the country. Comments on the data from state governments won't be available until next week.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0n.htm
--
Give me a break already. Anybody that didn't see this coming just hasn't been paying attention, these guys are making themselves look like morons. Check out those trade deficit numbers, take a glance at the CRB, look at manufacturing losses over the past year. Bad winter weather ? Yep, that's the reason. Bad weather is famous for forcing massive layoffs from places like the LA Times, Citibank, Boeing, etc.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 15:52
mozel (The Frankenstein Created By Congress) ID#153102:
http://thewinds.org/archive/government/executive_orders07-98.html

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 15:48
LGB (Gold bars ...can you take it with you?) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
And why do those errant apostrphe's...keep showing up in my post's unbidden? Some clever site protocal a la Golden Beagle? ( hehehe )

Anyway... this guy had a very impressive stash of Gold bars..the fruit of lifelong labor and accumalation of all his wealth. He went to his attorney to arrange a deal whereby he could Take it with him when he died.

For a very substantial sum, a deal was arranged with the attorney ( who presumably had some connections ) . Of course, ultimately the man met his demise..and showed up in heaven, a good while later....huffing, puffing, exhausted, at the pearly gates...wheeling this hand truck loaded with Gold bars up to Saint Peter.

Good old St. Peter looks the guy over and says, Why are you sweating and tired..what did you lug up here anyway?

The guy proudly steps aside to show his handtruck loaded with Gold bars. Whereupon St. Peter says You went to all this trouble to bring PAVING material up here?

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 15:44
Caper (2BRO2B?) ID#300202:
Clubbin' seals may look purdy good in B.C. soon.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 15:43
EZ Believer (Euro gold reserve percentage?) ID#173262:
Copyright © 1998 EZ Believer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Regarding the motivation for establishing the Eurodollar, I comlpetely disagree with the libertarian view brought to us by Erle. Rather than a tool to inflate it will be a powerful tool to standardize a fragmented montage of currencies. The threat to the U.S. dollar is very real. In the turbulent times to come, the first currency to inflate will be the loser.

With the introdustion of the Eurodollar at hand, what percentage of gold reserve requirement was established? Over the last couple years 5% to
15% was kicked around but I never have seen a firm figure. This should be an easy question for fellow Kitcoites..... What planet have I been on anyway?

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 15:41
LGB (@ Charles Keeling.... Loral story's) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
JD is right..my post was a blatantly transparent attempt at a pre-emptive missile strike,...assisted, aided, and abetted of course by telemetry data I was just getting ready to provide to some Chinese commies.

However, I also appreciated the fact that the Rueters story was a fact based story for a change. Notice for example that it mentions;

1 ) ``The select committee has found that the transfer of sensitive U.S. technology to the People's Republic of China goes beyond the Hughes
and Loral instances..


You bet.... using the rationale that the journalism pieces have been using re this story.... Sun Microsystems, Boeing, IBM, AT&T, et al...would be as guilty or more, of providing technology that could assist China's military endeavors.

2 ) ``These transfers are not limited to missile-satellite technology, but cover militarily significant technologies,'' he said.

Ditto #1 comment above

3 ) Earlier this month a classified Pentagon report concluded that Hughes scientists did give the Chinese valuable assistance after the 1995 crash
of a Chinese rocket carrying a commercial communications satellite built by the American company.

Notice the report says HUGHES...not Loral...that's HUGHES....HUGHES.... ( I always knew that Howard guy was a commie ..hehehehe ) . It makes sense to potulate that Huges may have transferred rocket or missile technology assistance. After all, they happen to also be in that business.

Loral is not in the rocket, missile, guidance, et al business, nor do they access to sensitive missile technology. How we at Loral, could transfer what we don't have even remote access to is beyond me!

4 ) The House committee looked at relationships between China and the United states over the last two decades, periods including both
Democratic and Republican administrations.

Uh huh....Prez Bush signed 11 Chinese launch waivers....though you'd never know it from the reporting we get...

5 ) The committee began its work after Republican allegations that satellite export deals concluded with the approval of the Clinton
administration may have been affected by political campaign donations.

How does this explain the same exact Chinese launch deals taking place with Bush administration before CLinton came along?

Anyway...bottom line is, the more actual facts that comes out, the more apparent it will be that the reporting which took place in this matter re Loral,.... has been about as factually solid as certain theories that Platinum is as common as beach sand! ( in atomic ppb of course...hehehe )

Sorry to take up bandwidth in defenz of the co. I work for... but since this Gold related story appears here so often.......




Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 15:38
rhody (@ all: Did anyone else notice that spot gold has had) ID#413307:
Copyright © 1998 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
two closing up days in a row? Dropping one month lease rates
indicate that speculators are hesitating to short it at these
levels. The funds will wait a few days while foolish goldbugs
bid up the price to the low 290's so the shorts have a decent
margin to operate in above 280. IMHO. The scenario I have
just described may typify the first part of 1999 unless the
ECB does step in to limit leasing by member banks. If the ECB
closes down leasing, watch for a pog rise, then a spike in lease
rates above 1% and right across the board.

If we see no firming of lease rates in January, watch out gold
will stagnate at these low levels. Earlier RJ said the 15%
gold backing of the EURO was a sham because there was no valuation
placed on the gold. I suspect we did that yesterday or today at
286-288. In other words, the valuation was the last fixing of
1999 in Europe. Since it was low, this will make gold on the
books look much better as it rises in 1999. I think the ECB
allowed the Americans to short gold down to the present levels
on COMEX for just this reason. Imagine this tiny gold exchange
that averages around 80 tons per day, is given as much weight
in the pricing of gold as the London exchange which averages
about 1200 tons per day. Hard to figure eh? We should have
a metal exchange in Vancouver, say with a volume of 2 tons and
see if we can manipulate the POG up between the closing of COMEX
and the opening of Hong Kong's exchange.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 15:33
nuggets (well to hear ANYONE on CNBC) ID#386129:
saying get GOLD is an omen...according to the wife who has just got up..& on the strength of it, is going out with the detector to find the first for '99

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 15:32
BigFisherman (nuggets) ID#258273:
My gold broker at Jefferson told me a couple of weeks ago that he has two new big customers. Bond traders. They are buying hand over fist and expecting a major collapse in all bonds in Q1.

Any others out there picked up on this?

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 15:32
ERLE (kitco is all fouled up) ID#190411:
Hit escape key if your stoplight doesn't go off.
I'll check the movies that y'all recommend.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 15:28
BigFisherman (Cage Rattler) ID#258273:
Read this last night. Pretty freaking amazing....

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 15:26
2BR02B? (Caper) ID#266105:

http://www.zolatimes.com/V2.39/britcolu.html

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 15:24
Goldteck (All: Happy new year higher gold price) ID#431200:


Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 15:15
bmacd (Oops-typo) ID#261322:
gor should be for! Guess my New Year's resolution should be some typing lessons.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 15:14
bmacd (Nuggets-CNBC) ID#261322:
I heard the same thing, shook my head to make sure I wasn't hearing things, then smiled. DOW's looking to close down, gold did close up for the year ( at least on the day-albeit $1.10- but hey that beats down ) ,and a buy suggestion gor the metal. If this portends 1999....
Happy New Years to all.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 15:02
Caper (James-Perceive u to be a bright.) ID#300202:
Copyright © 1998 Caper/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
U know the prob-what's the solution? Lived there in Nfld for 8 years 7 personally witnessed the seal hunt. The humane way of hunting them was not publicized now was it. They also put hooks in fishies mouths, same as people in British Columbia. Yes & B.C. has the benefit of the Asian trade
along with great natural resources. People of the East Coast have not been so blessed nor have we had the migration of multi-millionaires from Hong Hong. Methinks B.C. is not so rosy now. And NO-I do not want to engage in a fight-not my nature. As you say-you spent time in Cape Breton and on a cursory observation, you came to some very negative conclusions, however, at your leisure, take the time to read The Company Store & observe the root causes of our submission to slave masters. There-the tone was set. FOR ALL-WORTHWHILE BOOKMARKING-Universal Currency converter @ www.xe.net/currency.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 14:54
lsc (nuggets) ID#278287:
That was not a bond trader that was the gentleman who devised The Dogs
of the Dow Theory.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 14:50
Cage Rattler (The truth is out there - and we found it) ID#33182:
http://www.enterprisemission.com/truth1.htm

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 14:46
2BR02B? (beanzngold) ID#266105:

got counterparty for '99?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


party til you disgorge...

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 14:46
John Disney (great talent is golden ..) ID#24135:
for beanzngold ..
hats off to you .. James Agee it was ..
. the song I referred to was sure on this shining
night .. music by sam barber .. and a close second
is Knoxville summer of 1915.. ( same cast of characters )
an outstanding CD with roberta alexander on etcetera
..
.. the other Agee script was night of the hunter ..
an unforgetable performance by Bob Mitcham .. charles
laughton the director..

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 14:44
nuggets (happy new year..ooh my head..what a glorious start to) ID#386129:
1999....switched on cnbc just now....actually heared a bond trader give his forcast for new year...GET GOLD...do not be in stock market....are my ears deceiving me....maybe i died last night.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 14:37
2BR02B? (NTEOTWAWKI (mad ramblings of a goldbug)) ID#266105:

Re: your 12:26-- but that would be applying rationality and
common sense to the world of financial investments and assuming
a relationship rather than the mutual exclusivity currently
evidenced.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 14:18
2BR02B? () ID#266105:
-

Auric ( Theatre of the Absurd ) ID#257312:

Here's the deal on Drudge, if you are following this-- He said that if everything falls into place, the story will be out in 4 to 6 days. People are now heading to safe houses. It will shake the seats of power. Biggest story in the last 100 years. Now that sounds pretty
serious. Drudge has got hisself out on a limb with this. There better be some bygod earthshaking by January 5, or Drudge will join the ranks of discredited sensationalists.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...fwiw, some comments on net journalist Drudge:

http://www.polyconomics.com/

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 14:17
Silverbaron (BUFFORD @ Commodity Forecast) ID#288466:
It is now Y1.999K in Australia; their server is down.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 14:11
beanzngold (For The Caution Of Silas Marner) ID#212173:
Copyright © 1998 beanzngold/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
@ ~Silas~: My home was burgled two weeks ago. They opened my kids Christmas presents, smashed and rifled my partners little wooden box, ran off with a five year old vcr, which, after they'd cut it out, would have had 6 inches of mains lead. They took my passport and some printed paper.

*But* they are ignorant and irrelevant. Though they opened the ( not too heavy! ) drawer, they passed on my silver and glistening k-rands! With respect to you, Mr Marner, it is those cowards from afar that are the enemy, whom we should know and not underestimate. The local youths collecting for their pleasures are irritating gnats, it is the chauffered bastards collecting for the status quo that are the problem.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 14:07
James (Caper@Congratulations on retiring at 44. ) ID#252150:
Copyright © 1998 James/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
There are 1000s of newfoundlanders who have essentially been semi- retired all their lives. Well, they did share the work in fish plants in order to get their 6 weeks in so that they could get enough stamps to collect UI for another 10 months. Then again a few hundred are gainfully employed by clubbing helpless baby seals to death & in some cases ( filmed ) skinning them alive for a few weeks every year.
Yeah, I know that the dumb, corrupt politicians are responsible for institutionalizing the peoples dependancy on govt handouts. I also know that many thousands of them were quite happy with the status quo & planned their lives around 6 mks work & 10 months UI.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 14:02
JP (All: Happy new year) ID#249232:
I wish you the best for 1999.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 13:59
mozel (@Wake Up Call) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Supreme Court Rule 45. Process; Mandates
1. All process of this Court issues in the name of the President of the
United States.

The Code of Laws of the United States of America which is commonly termed the United States Code is a code established under the Military Powers of the United States and the Judicial Districts in 28 USC sections 81-131 are the establishment of Military Venues. If you look at 28 USC sections 81-131 you see the District of Columbia [sec. 88] and Puerto Rico [sec.119] listed in these sections. All of these judicial districts [Venues] are covered under the authority of Congress exercising the Military power of the United States. There is no other way these Territories, States, and the District of Columbia can be treated the same in the same sections of 28 USC [81-131] unless they are in the same Venue. In this section you have States, Territories, and the Seat of Government ( District of Columbia ) ? Under Constitutional law these Venue are separate and cannot be treated as the same. But under a Military power they can be. If you get a map put out by the Government such as the Regional and District Counsel Offices found in the IRS Hand Book 1100 Organization and Staffing. page 1100-19 it shows the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico [sic], Virgin Islands, the Several States, etc. Every entity is within a Federal Region.

Reading the judiciary Act at [62 Stat] 80th CONG., 2d SESS.-CH 646-June
25,1948 Chapter 21- General Provisions Applicable to Courts and Judges
Section 451. tells me Congress has included the Constitutional Federal
Courts into the Military venue of so called judicial Districts created in
28 USC 81-131. As I see it this converted the Venue of the Constitutional
Courts [being in judicial districts of the United States authorized by the Original US Constitution and Original Acts of Congress] to Military Venues.

When the people find out, Congress is going to claim that they were
exercising a Constitutional power. But the people will judge whether Congress and the President Abused the Military powers granted by the US Constitution for use in the most extreme circumstances and misused, abused, and deceived the people with them them to destroy the Several Republic's of the States and the independence of the judicial department and the security and liberties of the people. I also urge you to check the cases on the power vested in these United States Courts. It is not the Judicial Power of the United States [full power] as granted by the people in Article III. sec. 1. of the Constitution for the United States of America.

*Chief Justice Marshall, in the course of the debates
of Virginia State Convention of 1829-1830 ( pp. 616, 619 ) used the
following strong and frequently quoted language:

The Judicial Department comes home in its effects to
every man's fireside;...In a very early period of our history, it
was said in words as true to-day as they were then, that if they
[the people] value and wish to preserve their Constitution, they
ought never to surrender the independence of their judges. Rawle
on the Constitution, 2d Ed., 281.

Placing the Courts, Judges, and Citizens under the military powers of the
United States is surrendering the independence of the Several States,
Citizens and the judiciary. Is this proper and lawful use of a granted power by Congress or treason ?

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 13:54
BUFFORD (john disney** can you repost url from last night 01:30) ID#263262:
unable to get commodity forecast that was supposed to be at url
thanks

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 13:46
beanzngold (African Queens, Us pawns) ID#212173:
As an optimistic goldbug I make an enthusiastic silver-screener, so, RD, please let me praise James Agee ( and his nomination ) with you. btw, The Dead was as good as it was poignant.

And ( as it will never be known if ) I speak for many lurkers in thanking the garrulous here for this venue marked as home on my bit of Netscape.

got counterparty for '99?

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 13:46
ERLE (Millennialists, and oddities) ID#190411:
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?FS=+%3Ch3%3EThe+Year+2000

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 13:37
ERLE (Libertarian Euro comment) ID#190411:
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?FS=%3Ch3%3EEuro+Inflation

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 13:31
Silas_Marner (A happy 1999 to you all. A gulp and puff and all that too...) ID#285430:
Copyright © 1998 Silas_Marner/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
What a year it's been for the metals. Unless you're a palladium trader, it's been as exciting as watching soap opera reruns. Your friends in the stock market are all rubbing your face in it. As one rightfully pointed out: If you spent that money you spend in January on AOL stock instead of on gold, you could sell you AOL now and have 3 times as much gold as you currently do.

But I don't look at it that way. I look at my metals portfolio as steadily going up.

It all started with a single ounce of gold. Soon I got another, and then my portfolio jumped up in value 100%. Then I got some silver, a platinum eagle, and a bunch more gold. Just look at my portfolio grow! I had to put my silver in a different location, as I can hardly lift the damn box anymore to put it in it's secret hiding place. It's *never* gone down--only gone up.

To me, that's a gain on my investment. I invest my time, the sweat of my brow, and in return my box keeps getting heavier and heavier. I fear no financial crash--my only caution is the burglar of the night, of whom I have far more respect than the bankers who choose to steal from afar, like cowards.

Happy 1999
~Silas~

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 13:27
kuston (silver) ID#273290:
Something is going on in the silver market - anyone have any insight? PAASF is seeing some heavy positions being offered/bid. Haven't seen anything like this in 6 months. There is a new player today, USCT. I don't remember seeing them in the PAASF market.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 13:16
James (Posted 6 weeks ago) ID#252150:
Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 16:18
James ( Greenspoon@Blew whatever credibility he had left. He is showing that )
ID#252150:
he's afraid & has lost control.

Shorted PDG & added to my AMAT & INTC shorts. I don't think that they will let AU out
of the box & the shorts will wear out the longs.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 13:16
goldfevr (Predictions of - Economic Collapse -- thanks to 'Donald@Mozel' post, 08:46///12/31/98) ID#434108:
Copyright © 1998 goldfevr All rights reserved
for prompting me to write this 'response':

ECONOMIC COLLAPSE PREDICTIONS ( 12/31/98 )
both recent, and timeless….. from Fed. Res. Bank official,
from T. Jefferson ( and from 'yours-truely', 9/97 ) .

From recent words of a U.S. Fed. Reserve Bank official ( see below ) ,
come words of wisdom, insight, and warning ; words that
match and update … the foretelling words of Thomas Jefferson, 200 years ago;
and echo my words posted at kitco.com’s ‘discussion-board’, on 9/27/97.

ROBERT HEMPHILL ( Credit Manager of Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta, Ga. ) :
This is
a staggering thought. We are completely dependent on the commercial
Banks. Someone has
to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If
the Banks create ample
synthetic money we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are
absolutely without a
permanent money system. When one gets a complete grasp of the
picture, the tragic
absurdity of our hopeless position is almost incredible, but there
it is. It is the most important
subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is
so important that our present
civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and
the defects remedied very
soon.
( Thanks to Donald & Mozel, & kitco, at kitco.com posts, 12/31/98, for the above quote. )
……………………………………………………………

Thomas Jefferson: If the American people ever
allow the banking system to control their money,
first by inflation, then by deflation; their children
will one day, wake up homeless on the continent
their fathers conquered.
……………………………………

re-copy of my post, at kitco.com’s discussion-board, of 9/27/97:

When the 'tent' collapses
it will not be the 'center-post'
that goes first;
it will be the 'side-posts',
and even the 'stakes'. …
……………………………………….

In conclusion, on this Dec. 31st day, 1998,
I offer this New Year’s wish, and affirmation:

At this turning of the year,
may leaders, followers, and independent thinkers alike,
consider thoughtfully, the implications of these…. recent, and timeless…..words of warning ( above ) .
May we understand…and grasp fully what is happening…..and the underlying opportunity.

May we be willing to share more widely, our knowledge and understanding.


May we take action, accordingly…..to take care of ourselves, one another; our families;
to help our friends, our communities, and… others .

May we each do our unique, and vital part,
to heal, restore, and fulfill…… ourselves, one another, and our world.

May we address our governments and other leaders,
to reform, restore, and renew our monetary and banking systems……
so that …a permanent money system…….will be established…..
for the global economy and the world community of all nations.

May a restored, and just …. money and credit system, equally acceptable to all nations and all peoples,
be based in, and rooted in, an internationally trusted…….
standard of value, and
medium of exchange.

I sincerely believe that such a money system, is, and historically always has been;
and will be again -- found in gold ( -convertible ) money, and gold ( -backed ) credit.

I sincerely believe, that a portending world-wide economic collapse,
can thus be averted; and that
the global economy can thus be restored.
And I sincerely believe, such a restored, enduring, internationally agreed to ….
money and credit system; will provide the opportunity
for all human-kind, to learn to live in peace and prosperity.

Yours truly, Happy New Year,

David Blair Macrory

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 13:05
Tyro (Thanks, RJ!) ID#36977:
All -- Best wishes to all for a happy, healthy, and prosperous ( Go Gold ) Y2k-1.

The Privateer has a good commentary.
http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html

Bart -- hope this doesn't break any rules. If so, let me know.


Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 13:03
MM (nothing in particular) ID#347167:
-
Iran official says euro to ease dollar domination
http://www.foxmarketwire.com/wires/1231/f_rt_1231_13.sml

The dollar is also the currency in highest demand on Tehran's illegal but active foreign exchange black market, where many ordinary Iranians buy hard currencies as a hedge against inflation.
*****************************************
Nick@C - 6 days left on my off-the-top-of-me-head 57 days remark...
( Maybe Drudge visits Kitco? )

Yippee, I made a net 39.46% on gold gambles this year...

P.S. - my 21mo old son got some socks for Xmas - lo and behold, they had goldbugs imprinted on the bottom as a traction aid. A good a sign as any I guess.

Best of luck to all 1999

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 13:03
John Disney (.. preemptive strike ..) ID#24135:
for LGB ..
right on ..
the best defense is a sloppy offense ..

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 13:01
John Disney (.. vowel movements ..) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
for limey and crusty ..
Huston was wonderful .. sadly I have never seen his last
film .. The Dead .. a work of love .. it was a
retelling of James Joyce's great short story..

But so far no one has gotten the author of the
script for african Queen ..
.. therefore I will tell you about my mother in law..
.. she pronounces words oddly ..
.. a bat is a bate .. I saw a bate in that tree
.. a straw is a strow or stroe .. may I have
a stroe with my drink
.. bikers are bickies .. Hell's Angels are just
a bunch of bickies
.. and she once said that my wife's elder sister
was married to an anesthetic..

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 12:54
boro (RJ - Long Post please!) ID#7835:
RJ - can we have the long post that you refer to.

I need hope for the future!

Thanks

Happy and Prosperous New Year

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 12:54
boro (RJ - Long Post please!) ID#7835:
RJ - can we have the long post that you refer to.

I need hope for the future!

Thanks

Happy and Prosperous New Year

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 12:41
MoReGoLd (@OK ... RJ) ID#348129:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
My 1998 Award for best Calls on the PM Market is hereby awarded to you.

While im very dissapointed that you were right about Gold, it has given countless investors and Bugs another chance to get in cheap and cheaper. The various taps that are pouring Gold into this market have to run dry sometime - but when? 1999 is as good a year as any.

Your predictions are there for 1999, and let's all hope that your record on calling Gold will be left unbrocken.

IN ANY CASE, THE BEST OF HEALTH AND HAPPYNESS TO YOU RJ AND ALL OTHERS HERE AT KITCO-VILLE FOR THE NEW YEAR.......

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 12:36
Charles Keeling (@ LGB RE: Clintons Chinese Donor) ID#344225:
I had cut and pasted that article and was ready to
post it, but I said: NAH....It's Christmas/New Years
holliday time. Why be mean to LGB. I didn't pull the
trigger. Then you post it!

Way to go. Go figure.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 12:32
Selby (Mooney looks like a Winner) ID#286230:
Regardless of whether one is a conspiracy advocate or a wave theorist-- all must recognize that our man Mooney has successfully predicted several weeks in advance that the price of gold would essentially go nowhere until the end of the year--about 12 hours from now. Truly the Master.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 12:26
NTEOTWAWKI (mad ramblings of a goldbug) ID#389387:
Copyright © 1998 NTEOTWAWKI/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Cogitations on POG

A logical explanation for the price of gold is order. The various multitudes of variables, which drive the POG, are many. Various economic theories attempt to utilize groups of these variables by packaging the variables up with cause and effect relationships.

My question to the “Wave-theory chartists” is this: If the POG is manipulated and constrained to its current range of $275-$305 for political-prurient interests, then how can the wave-theory work in this environment?

Conversely to the “Manipulation” theorists I pose the question; If the wave theory is an accurate method of determining price due to behavioral purchasing, how can the POG be manipulated without affecting the natural cycle of the wave?

To the “supply-demand” theorists I will ask; In spite of the 175% increase in the publics’ purchasing of gold coins, why hasn’t the POG been influenced to reflect the enormous demand increase?

While theoretical physicists chase down the Unified Field Theory to explain the composition of matter-space & time, us goldbugs will probably parallel our quest as to the factors and relationships affecting POG. These are all random ramblings and wishes for the NewYear. Please do not try to answer the questions posed above. Because only REALISTIC knows the answer, and he refuses to tell us.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 12:26
Bottom$ (RJ- a year end thanks) ID#259221:
RJ- You are a gentleman and a scholar and are much appreciated for your prompt reply to my request. Please stay close to the keyboard during this upcoming year- one that seems to promise some tumultuous times! I always look forward to reading your posts and thinking through your analyses. While none of us mortals are omniscient, you come as close as any regarding PMs and I perk up whenever I see an RJ post. Again, a happy new year to you and all.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 12:23
Mad Hatter (To all...) ID#284230:
Happy New Year!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 12:23
LGB (Loral scandal news) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I leave for a couple days and no one posts this story? I thought this site was on top of this stuff. After all...this has been one of the most frequently posted topics here for all 1998. Since it has such direct relevance to Gold and mining shares o' course. JTF et al..where are you?

Thursday December 31 12:14 AM ET

House Probe Faults U.S.-China High-Tech Deals

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - A U.S. House inquiry has concluded that high technology deals with China, including in military equipment,
have damaged U.S. national security, lawmakers said Wednesday.

``I can tell you today that we have found that national security harm did occur,'' Rep. Chris Cox, a California Republican who chaired the
special investigating committee, told reporters after the panel adopted its classified report.

The report of the six-month inquiry, unanimously approved by the committee's five Republicans and four Democrats, included 38
recommendations for future dealings with China.

The probe was set up after allegations that Hughes Electronics Corp. and Loral Space & Communications Ltd ( NYSE:LOR - news ) . had
transferred technology to China after satellites belonging to Hughes and Loral were destroyed in Chinese rocket explosions.

``The select committee has found that the transfer of sensitive U.S. technology to the People's Republic of China goes beyond the Hughes
and Loral instances that were a significant part of the reason that the committee was formed,'' Cox told reporters.

``These transfers are not limited to missile-satellite technology, but cover militarily significant technologies,'' he said.

He declined to go into details, saying unclassified parts of the report would be made public in about two month.

Earlier this month a classified Pentagon report concluded that Hughes scientists did give the Chinese valuable assistance after the 1995 crash
of a Chinese rocket carrying a commercial communications satellite built by the American company.

Speaking alongside Cox Wednesday, Washington Democrat Rep. Norm Dicks said: ``These are serious problems that must be addressed by
the administration and the Congress.'' He said correcting the problems would require new legislation.

The House committee looked at relationships between China and the United states over the last two decades, periods including both
Democratic and Republican administrations.

Cox said China's ``technology acquisition efforts directed against the United States'' had been going on for more than the two decades the
panel studied. ``It's important to recognize also that that goes on even today,'' he said.

The committee began its work after Republican allegations that satellite export deals concluded with the approval of the Clinton
administration may have been affected by political campaign donations.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 12:18
rhody (@ all: Trust the grinnies on CNBC to put a positive spin) ID#411440:
everything. They just pointed to the fall in the USD and projected
further weakness in the months ahead as of benefit to American
exporters. True, but American prosperity over the past 25
years has been based on an explosion in the service economy and
the use of a strong USD to import an imflated standard of living.

I think the EURO is about to change all that, and holders of USDs
better convert them to either gold or EUROs fast!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 12:12
Cyclist (to all:) ID#339274:
Have a happy and a prosperous New Year.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 12:10
RJ (..... Repost for Bottom $ .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Why gold will go zoom in 99......

Having gone into great detail in the past on this subject, I will give the short version here. My story has remained remarkably consistent over the months, regarding gold, and it did not disappoint. Folks were calling me crazy to short gold last trip above $300. Although I posted I was looking for a modest move down to $285, some folks seemed to think I was calling for a wholesale crash in the POG.

A high US dollar has made producer forward sales attractive. I am not speaking of speculative short sales, which producers also participate in, but true forward sales. Since gold is traded in dollars, the high exchange rates for the Canadian Dollar, the Australian dollar, and the South African rand, have made these sales way attractive. Witness JD's posts regarding the windfall SA mines saw this year.

Outright sales and cheap leases, primarily by European central banks, have fueled this orgy of sales. When one can borrow some gold at .005% to lock in the high POG ( in terms of local currency ) , one is encouraged to lock as much production in at these levels as possible rather than a more expensive hedging strategy in the futures market. I posted some months ago that lease rates would rise at the end of the year and that the cheap gold rates would gradually go away. They are now in the process of doing that.

Since the newly created European Central Bank needs to approve any outright sales or leases of gold by its member nations; the spigot is being turned off. The introducers of the Euro ( which I still think is doomed to failure ) don't want to take the shine off this dubious and untested currency with more sales or leasing of gold. Lease rates will continue to rise, and short sales by producers will dwindle. This is a supply/demand argument, plain and simple.

The vaunted backing by a mere 15% of gold for this currency is a transparent attempt to make the Euro somehow more solid in the eyes of the world. Since no valuation has been determined for this gold, the 15% number is largely illusionary. Besides, any currency backed by gold, must contain therein an ability to convert this currency to gold. This is not possible with gold, since it is traded in US dollars throughout the world. The whole gold backed: thingy is a red herring and a shameless ploy to add value to a completely untested currency issued by nations that have had mucho trouble just not killing each other for the last millenium or so. Ask yourselves why Britain opted out of the EMU? Why would any nation give up absolute sovereignty of their own currency? This has never been done before, so any proclamations of the wonderful Euro becoming the new reserve currency for the world, are way premature at best.

An interesting aside: I asked Kirsten Peterson of the Austrian Mint what Europeans were doing in preparation for the introduction of the Euro, are they buying gold, I queried? Nay sir, says she, they are buying US $100 dollar bills. It seems as if the benefactors of the world's new reserve currency would rather hold the world's existing reserve currency - rather than their Euros, and rather than more gold.

The other piece of the puzzle is individual investor demand. The sales figures of the US Mint, the RCM and others, have all shown upwards of a 500% increase in sales of gold to individuals. I take calls from folks every day. These calls are mostly about gold, and mostly concerned about the possible ramifications of the whole Y2K thingy. The calls range from folks who think Y2K is the end of the world, to calls from those who have zero worries about Y2K but want to make profits based on other peoples worries. Regardless of the reason for the call, these are folks who have never looked at gold, or at least not paid it any notice for the last decade or so. This will grow to a groundswell in the first half of 1999 and propel gold back to its more traditional trading range of $350 to $400. Momentum buying from there could carry the prices much higher, but that remains to be seen.

Made a mistake in platinum this year, but after the bundles of cash the noble white metal made my clients last year, most understand that these trades, while costly to hold for extra months, will eventually turn into money makers. My record on silver is much better, but I did get nailed in some silver shorts a year ago. But gold, the reason we are all here, has done exactly as I have said it would. For the last 18 months, gold has move nearly dollar for dollar as I have told folks it would. Pardon the tooting of my golden horn, but I can't recall ever being wrong about gold on these pages. Now that I have made this boastful claim, the archive diggers will search to find the exception. I challenge them to do so. The yellow metal seems to bend to my very will, and recover just in time for all my trades to work out just peachy.

Sadly, there has been no clear opportunity to play gold from the long side these last two years. But that will change soon. I have been very vocal about folks taking delivery of gold when it was hovering in the 270s. I will do the same again, I hope folks listen. Actually, I think $280 will hold. The shorts want to get the books looking pretty by the end of the year. This will be followed by a great short covering rally which will bring us back above $300 - this time for good. This should be the last trip below $300 for at least the next 13 or 14 months. If the Y2K thing is just a hiccup, prepare to sell your gold and short the hell out of it.

Although I have been one of the most outspoken gold bears on this site for the last two years, I told folks that I would be just as enthusiastic about gold on the long side - when the market told me it would last. I am being told that now. I am beginning to load up again on gold coins for delivery and bullion for long term holders who do not want leverage or delivery. I have yet to place any trades on gold on the long side, but I will report it here when I do. If one is buying for delivery, $285 is a good spot price. This is within 5% of the $272 bottom - which will hold.

This was the short answer. I am glad nobody asked for the long one.

OK

PS
I'll dig up a couple of post on all the metals and repost.

Beats retyping them

OK







Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 11:50
BUFFORD (@BMACD ****ggo/pdg requires getchell shareholder approval) ID#263226:

The getchelll pdg requires majority shareholder approval and completion of deal not expected until end of march according to latest pdg release on their web site. One the reasons GSA stated why nem might bid on ggo is that nem may have to value their reserves at $300/oz at end of 98 instead of the present $350/oz ( reserves drop by 32% at $300/oz ) nem hi-grades with yanacocha/peru economicic at $300/oz

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 11:39
Cyclist (NEM) ID#339274:
Taking my profit 18 3/8.: )

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 11:30
Cobra (Rates are spiking up.........) ID#34459:
TYX.X chart looks like a rocket launch. Interest rates are going up..
Major change is in the air in many markets...........

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 11:25
Cyclist (YEN) ID#339274:
Yen is taking off,could be the signal of the end in YEN carry trade.
Watch the unwinding....all in 1999

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 11:18
POLARBEAR (latest RANGY spreadsheet for the details..) ID#183109:
JOHN D, do these figures check with you? Thanks. January 1st here already...Happy 1999 to all.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 11:15
POLARBEAR ( a RANGY picture worth a thousand words) ID#183109:
RANGY unchanged today at 1 7/16. Net Asset Value ( book ) is now $3.15 with a reasonable estimate of actual NAV north of $4.



But I guess Amazon.comicial is the place to be...



ftp://ftp.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/rangydisctonav.jpg

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 11:03
bmacd (BUFFORD-TVX) ID#261322:
Copyright © 1998 bmacd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You're very likely correct. Reports I've heard, are that PDG, ABX, NEM and HM are possibilities. PDG would be ideal- they already have some joint ventures with TVX, so the two companies would be good together. I've spoken to the investor relations people at TVX many times, ( I own some TVX and have for a long time, so obviously I've had some concerns ) . At one point a few months back there was mention that so we go back to what we were, a company that finds finds great properties, and moves into joint ventures Too bad this mess with Kassandra had to happen, but I guess it's the truth- a joint venture situation wouldn't be so bad. Unless PSG loses Getchell to a higher bidder ( and I thought that was done and over now, but maybe not ) , they're a little tight, but I guess they can always issue more shares to cover the takeover. I also own PDG, and really would be thrilled to see the two together.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 10:57
Bottom$ (RJ- a year end request) ID#206196:
Copyright © 1998 Bottom$/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
RJ- A week or two ago you posted your predictions regarding gold as well as, I believe, maybe platinum and palladium, too. I printed out your post meaning to peruse it and perhaps act upon it based on my respect for your analysis over the past year that I have been lurking here. But alas, I have misplaced the printout and do not relish trying to check the archives back a week and a half to find it.

Would you be kind enough, RJ, to repost your take on the economy and precious metals as we look into a new year? I would really appreciate it!
Happy New Year to you and all you KITCOITES! Thanks, Bart, for making this forum available!!!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 10:57
Cobra (Agree with Cyclist............) ID#34459:
A 50% pullback was all it could do, we are probabably entering a good C wave or maybe a 3rd wave up, this could be exciting. 1999 is going to be a good year for all who are true to the golden rule.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 10:49
rhody (@ all re lease rates: one month gold leases dropped) ID#411440:
by .33% to under 1% again, while one year leases rose by .24%
This is NOT BULLISH. In fact the jump in long term leases
suggests that some producer just forward sold at $287! This]
means there is at least one producer out there who thinks that
$287 will be the high for the year!

Happy New Year everyone!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 10:42
BUFFORD (TVX ****majors interested) ID#263226:
Copyright © 1998 BUFFORD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
After getting whipped good this year on my pm purchases i decided to buy more TVX this week after reading the januarry GSA issue. Reporting
Placer, Goldfields, Normandy, and Homestake interested in TVX. GSA predicting a 100 certainty of a deal***if i could only be so confident. hoping the third time is the the charm for myself as my two earlier entrances in to the pm market this year were false starts as pog never stayed over $300

GSA also predicting 100% certainty of a deal for GReenstone, Lihir, Vengold ( prefers vengold to Lihir ) , Canyon and preduicts Nem making higher bid for Getchell


Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 10:27
Goldteck (Bill GatesThe $100 billion man=10,725 tons of gold at $290) ID#431200:
$100-BILLION BILLBy LAUREN BARACK
Just call him the $100 billion man. At least that what's Microsoft's Chairman, Bill Gates, will be worth by this time next year if his company's stock continues to grow at even less than a third of its current rate. And analysts say, Microsoft is just at the beginning of its growth spurt.
http://www.nypost.com/business/7527.htm

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 10:16
Cyclist (looks like) ID#339274:
it was the third leg down.A leap upwards to 70 is possible now.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 10:13
Donald (Euro vs: gold) ID#26793:
I have the Euro VS: gold at 247 ( 247 x 1.16675 = 288 ) . Is there a site anywhere that will confirm that?

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 10:00
Cyclist (NEM) ID#339274:
Covered and long 17 3/8

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 09:33
RJ (..... JD .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Right indeedy, your crusty memory outperforms my lime addled one.

It WAS John Houston who was the American stranger, how could I forget that? As a kid growing up, before I realized his great directorial accomplishments, I just liked John Houston's style as an actor. He was always a bit off-kilter, with a knowing and slightly contemptuous air about him, he stood apart from, and always towered above, the rest of the folks he shared the screen with.

Regarding African Queen: The onlyest reason JH took the job was the opportunity to do a bit of big game hunting in Africa. Spent more time on Safari than on the film. The man lived a big life. Was in Puerto Vallarta this summer, and hung out in JH's favorite bar downtown. The place had certainly not changed since the day's of his former glory, and the place was thick with ghosts.

Great quotes from the flick there, fella', keep it up.

What's the story on the Chris Disney site you posted last PM? Does he run that site? I have often seen you speak of him, but never really got a bead on his background. You seem to have great respect for his opinions.

Away……tohaveaveryshorttradingdayb4ringinginthenewyear



Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 09:17
robnoel (Cage Rattler...either I not have been paying attention or just slow....I did not you were a boetie) ID#413273:

great snap shot .....spent many lazy days there.....getting to the beach was fun....leaving for the hike up the cliffs a pain in the butt......I used to promote proffessional surfing there every once in a while......worked for Capital Radio...those were the days......:- )

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 09:17
Caper (Mr Congeniality @ James ur 01.36) ID#300202:
Happy New Year James. Leave it to you to turn something light into the nasties. No one on the west coast has ever supported me nor would I request same. I retired @ 44 without your assistance.

Tom

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 09:16
robnoel (Cage Rattler...either I not have been paying attention or just slow....I did not you were a boetie) ID#413273:

great snap shot .....spent many lazy days there.....getting to the beach was fun....leaving for the hike up the cliffs a pain in the butt......I used to promote proffessional surfing there every once in a while......worked for Capital Radio...those were the days......:- )

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 09:11
Cyclist (XAU) ID#339274:
Support for today at 62.2 and NEM 16 7/8.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 09:10
kapex (From Peter Eliades. Its nice to see that he see's it my way! ) ID#275170:
Copyright © 1998 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Recent Research

There can be little doubt that this is the most overvalued market in the history of American securities markets. Unfortunately, valuation has never been an effective way of timing market tops and bottoms. On several counts our markets were at record overvaluation levels in 1995 when the Dow was around the 4500 level. That did not prevent the Dow from gaining a spectacular 100% over the next three years. It is only when extreme bullish sentiment and internal technical deterioration come together with record overvaluation that we can be confident the market is about to decline significantly. We believe those conditions are currently in effect.

When the Dow Industrials went to a new all-time high in the week ending November 27, the weekly advance-decline line was below its own one year ( 52 week ) moving average ( MA ) . Looking back at the data of the past 68 years, that has happened on only a few occasions. All of those occasions either immediately or very closely preceded important market declines.

The last time it occurred was in 1990, from May 18 through June 1. That preceded the July 17, 1990 top which led to a decline of 22.5% on the Dow and 31.3% on the Nasdaq Composite.

Prior to 1990, the next occurrence looking back was the week ending January 5, 1973. That was just one week before the all-time high of January 11, 1973, a high that would not be surpassed until almost a decade later. Just prior to the January 5, 1973 occurrence, there were four consecutive weeks between November 10, 1972 and December 1, 1972 that saw the rare phenomenon occur. They preceded the January 11 all-time high by anywhere from six to nine weeks.

The only other occasion over the past 68 years that saw the Dow go to a new all-time high intra-day on the same week when the weekly A-D line was below its own 52 week MA was the week ending January 8, 1960. That week marked an exact Dow high. The Dow declined 18% over the next nine months and did not move above the January 1960 high until over 15 months later.

That is the complete history of such coincidences over the past 68 years. Because there were only three or four prior occasions, we cannot consider the results statistically significant. If we follow former results, however, we should either have seen the final highs already or be, at most, six to nine weeks from the final high as measured from the week ending November 27. That would allow for a final high no later than Friday, January 29, 1999.

The next observations deal with our own CI-NCI ratio and the recent readings as some prices moved to new all time highs. On November 23 when the Dow moved to a new all-time high, both intra-day and on a closing basis, the CI-NCI ratio closed at .970. There have been few occasions over the past several decades when the Dow moved to new all time highs accompanied by a CI-NCI Ratio below 1.00. There have been even fewer occasions when the ratio at a new all-time Dow high was below .971 as it was on November 23. Since 1940, here are the only instances when that occurred.

1 ) January 5, 1960

2 ) November 10, 13 1972

3 ) January 11, 1973

4 ) May 14 through June 4, 1990 ( 9 different days )

5 ) November 23, 1998

If the above dates look familiar, they compare almost exactly with the statistics given above for the few times the Dow went to a new all time high accompanied by a weekly A-D line below its own 52 week MA.

Both of these indicators are measurements of overall market breadth although they cover different time periods. The one year MA of advances and declines obviously covers a 52 week period. The CI-NCI Ratio covers the preceding 39 weeks. They are both telling us that over the past 53-68 years, whenever the Dow moved to new all time highs accompanied by breadth figures as poor as the current ones, the market either was facing an immediate top of significance or was no more than 6-9 weeks from a top of significance. As we noted above, there is a strong suggestion from these two measurement sticks that the top has either been seen or will occur no later than January 29, 1999.

Next, look at the chart in the following link. It shows the S&P 500 on a monthly closing basis accompanied by the Coppock Curve for the S&P. The Coppock Curve is a long term momentum indicator. When we prepared this chart for a recent newsletter, we had no idea where the November close on the S&P would be. As it turns out, the S&P went to a new all-time high monthly close accompanied by a Coppock Curve that not only declined for the seventh consecutive month, but fell to the lowest level of the past three years and, in doing so, broke the support ledge that was formed between December 1996 and March 1997. That support ledge is shown on the accompanying cart and it is hard to conceive that the combination of the S&P going to a new all-time high monthly close accompanied by a momentum indicator that is going to a multi year low could be anything but very bearish over the intermediate to long term.



MAJOR MARKET WEAKNESS DISPLAYED

When we originally presented the following material in early 1998 and when we updated it for presentation on this website in July 1998, we made a case for a potential market crash in September or October 1998. The stock market did see some dramatic weakness into the October 8 time period, but it was not a crash by any means. Because of the market’s dramatic overvaluation, however, we will continue to update the periods most likely to see a crash according to the Puetz criteria given below. Here is how we explained those criteria in mid 1998:

We seldom use much newsletter space for the ideas of others, but the theories we are about to present fit together so well, we believe you will find them as interesting as we do. The two researchers are Steve Puetz ( pronounced pits ) and Chris Carolan. Chris just won the 1998 Charles H. Dow Award for his original research and the complete article is offered on his website at http://www.calendarresearch.com. The research by Puetz was first noted in our October 10, 1995 newsletter. Here is what we wrote:

Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let’s simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power –less than one chance in 127,000.

. . .Puetz ) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse –when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace.

There are two lunar eclipses scheduled for 1999, on January 31 and July 28. There are two solar eclipses scheduled, on February 16 and August 11. If a 1999 crash is to take place within the above discovered parameters as delineated by Mr. Puetz, such a crash should begin between January 25 to February 3 or between July 22 to July 31. When we say such a crash should begin, we mean a top of some kind leading to a decline of 35-50% within a few short weeks could begin within those time frames.

We emphasize again that crashes tend to be generational in nature. To attempt to predict the timing of one would appear to be foolheardy, but it could be fun, at worst, and financially enriching, at best, if the above dates prove to be prophetic. We will attempt to keep this website updated from time to time with further details of the above possibilities.

This page updated on 12/18/98



 

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 09:09
RJ (..... Surprise Surprise .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

No Russia platinum export quota seen to end Jan
06:42 a.m. Dec 31, 1998 Eastern

MOSCOW, Dec 31 ( Reuters ) - Quotas determining volumes of platinum and palladium to be exported from Russia next year will not be signed before the end of January at the earliest, Interfax quoted a Finance Ministry source as saying on Thursday.

The quota issue is now being examined by the government.

The source was reported as saying it was difficult to specify exactly when the quota order, which will allow sole platinum group metal exporter Almazjuvelirexport to start sales, would be signed.

Russia completed its deliveries of these metals to world markets under 1998 quotas in mid-December, Interfax said. It added that the government was examining different options for exports of the metals in 1999, but said they would involve exports of no more than 100 tonnes of palladium and 20 tonnes of platinum from all sources.

These include the state precious metals and stones reserve Gokhran, the central bank and the major producer, Norilsk Nickel.

No comparisons were given for 1998.

Quotas for 1998 exports were not signed until April, keeping the metals off the market for most of the first half of the year and sending prices soaring as a result. There were also major delays in signing quotas in 1997.

Russia accounts for over 60 percent of world palladium supplies and around 20 percent of platinum.


It go zoom, yes?

OK


Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 09:03
Cage Rattler (NY NAPM - A very serious contraction in manufacturing) ID#33184:
NY NAPM manufacturing index tumbles to 25.8 versus 50 in November. A very serious contraction in manufacturing. The non manufacturing index increased to 67.4 versus 57.1 in November. A reading above 50 signals an expansion and below 50 signals a contraction. The contraction in manufacturing is very serious but the service sector expansion is accelerating. This trend has been in play all year, and overall the economy is still very strong.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 08:56
Cage Rattler (Euro: Nothing can go wrong between now and 2002) ID#33184:
Copyright © 1998 Cage Rattler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
BRUSSELS ( AFX ) - European Central Bank president Wim Duisenberg said there is nothing that can go wrong with the EU's single currency between now and the introduction of notes and coins in 2002.

He was replying to questions after EU finance ministers set the conversion rates for the 11 currencies participating in the euro.He told journalists the ECB will do its utmost to ensure the euro is a currency in which European citizens can put their trust and which will keep its value over time.

He said today's fixing of conversion rates to the euro went off almost as
an anticlimax and without the difficulties many would have expected a year ago.

He said this was due to the decision to announce last May the bilateral parities between participating currencies.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 08:48
Cage Rattler (REPORT SAYS CHINA STOLE SENSITIVE U.S. MILITARY TECHNOLOGY ) ID#33184:
http://www.drudgereport.com/matt.htm

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 08:46
Donald (@Mozel) ID#26793:
Copyright © 1998 Donald/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thanks for this great post. It is said better than I have ever seen it said before, and by a Fed official!

ROBERT HEMPHILL ( Credit Manager of Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta, Ga. ) : This is a staggering thought. We are completely dependent on the commercial Banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the Banks create ample synthetic money we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system. When one gets a complete grasp of the picture, the tragic absurdity of our hopeless position is almost incredible, but there it is. It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 08:44
John Disney (Hoagy ) ID#24135:
retired Soldier ..
Wont cut it ... but good try !

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 08:44
Hunter500 (CNBC - US jobless claims up by 70,000 plus) ID#40477:
due to winter storms....she couldn't even say it with a straight face.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 08:39
Cage Rattler (Webcam at my local beach !) ID#33184:
http://www.mweb.co.za/summertimes/janicam/index.html

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 08:38
Roebear (Cage Rattler and all,) ID#412172:
Cage Rattler thanks for the Euro info, much appreciated! And to all at Kitco, a HAPPIER Goldbug New Year!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 08:33
Mike Sheller (peace train, the rain, flowers in the park....) ID#348257:
and other things.

Taking a brief respite from the crass materialism of mammon worship to wish all a peaceful, happy, glorious, enlightening, expansive, and, oh yes, prosperous, New Year.

Good Health and Good Spirits to Everyone!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 08:09
nuggets (happy new year goldbugs) ID#386129:
may our needs be given & our wants considered in 99

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 08:07
Crystal Ball (@ Mike Sheller) ID#287377:
Andiamo !!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 07:42
Cmax (Africanminer....you have missed the point) ID#344205:
Copyright © 1998 Cmax/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 03:40
May next year be prosperous and bright but more important may god grant unto all of us a free-market for gold bullion, free from the tyranny of Mr. Greenspan and all his global cronies and the old world aristocracy.

Gold is presently VERY free market. If one decides to sell his physical gold at a price determined by a paper derivative ( of a derivative ) market, that's his problem. Tale advantage while you can...while gold is subsidized by the world goverments. It has never been sooooo cheap, in all history. Real tyranny would be having all monetary systems declared as pertaining to a gold standard, and then legally prohibiting the ownership of gold ( again ) . Personally, I feel that the present situation is JUST WONDERFUL, and I hope it hangs on just a little longer.
Cmax

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 07:28
Mike Sheller (out of the golddrums?) ID#348257:
gold looks as if it has finished an abc correction off its first leg up from the very bottom. If this is the case, a rally from here will take us to 315 in about 3 weeks. Then, a little consolidation, a little excitement, a little disappointment, a little pessimism, and we're off to 370's by April May.

Avanti!

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 07:08
Cage Rattler (ECU final reference rates) ID#33184:
STG: 0.705455 ; YEN: 132.800 ; USD: 1.16675

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 07:05
Cage Rattler (Ecu first quoted in London at $1.1685/90 at time of euro lock-in rates) ID#33184:


Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 06:38
crazytimes (Just wishing everyone a happy new year....) ID#344326:
Just listening to some Cat Stevens.....Everyone get on board the PeaceTrain....

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 06:00
Cage Rattler (Euro info) ID#33184:
Copyright © 1998 Cage Rattler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Locking rates for the Euro will take place in about 3 hours so we are all watching history being written. Waiting for the birth of the new super currency here is some information about the trade weighted participation shares and bilateral fixings:

Trade weighting
DEM 27.3
FRF 18.9
ITL 12.8
NLG 12.2
BEF 11.7
ESP 7.5
ATS 4.5
IEP 1.6
PTE 2.3
FIM 1.3

Bilateral fixing rates ( since May 3, 1998 )
Germany 1, France 3.35386, Italy 990.002, Netherlands 1.12674, Belgium ( Lux ) 20.6255, Spain 85.0722, Austria 7.03552, Ireland 0.402676, Portugal 102.505, Finland 3.04001


Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 05:18
ChasAbar (RS,) ID#340344:
You teenagers! Is that all you ever think about? Oh, OK. Never mind.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 05:01
RETIRED SOLDIER (Hise Rise) ID#399147:
Cnaucks must be real limp richards, i'm 57 and still manage twice a day.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 04:51
RETIRED SOLDIER (John Disney) ID#399147:
Hoagy Carmichael? ( If si send my prize to Garmisch )

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 04:13
Dabchick (Wednesday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates) ID#258195:
Copyright © 1998 Dabchick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
For Wednesday 30th Dec calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3- month--------6- month---------12- month
$LIBOR-------------5.62--------------5.25-------------5.09-----------------5.06 ( Tues 29th Dec )
$LIBOR-------------5.06--------------5.06-------------5.09-----------------5.12 ( Weds 30th Dec )

Mean GoldLR------4.09---------------3.99-------------3.75-----------------3.45
Gold Lease Rate---0.97---------------1.07-------------1.34-----------------1.77
( Change ) ------ ( - 0.33 ) ------- ( - 0.07 ) ------- ( + 0.05 ) ----------- ( + 0.24 )

Silver Lend Rate----4.15--------------3.40-------------2.55-----------------2.20
Silver Lease Rate---0.91--------------1.66--------------2.54-----------------2.92
( Change ) --------- ( - 0.61 ) -------- ( - 0.24 ) --------- ( - 0.05 ) ------------ ( + 0.06 )
$LIBOR = BBA London rate fixed at 11am
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild
Lease Rate = $LIBOR minus Lending Rate .
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day

For comparison with $LIBOR, the FT rates for US Dollar CD's ( mid rates ) are as follows:
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
US$ CD's-----------4.90-------------4.77---------------4.76---------------4.72 ( Tues 29th Dec )
US$ CD's-----------4.82-------------4.84---------------4.86---------------4.87 ( Weds 30th Dec )
( Change ) ----- ( - 0.08 ) -------- ( + 0.07 ) --------- ( + 0.10 ) ------------ ( + 0.15 )

Please note the sharp reductions in 1-month and in 3-month $LIBOR yesterday, and the similar falls in US$ CD's. These interest rate changes have restored the 1-to-12 month $LIBOR yield curves to normal in that the 12-month now provides a higher rate than the 1-month. These changes have caused the 1-month and 3-month gold and silver lease rates to fall accordingly. I can find no reference in the Financial Times to explain this sudden $LIBOR change. Short ( 1 & 3-month Gold lending rates have also fallen since yesterday, which limits the effect of $LIBOR changes somewhat. See my post yesterday at 04:55 for the previous MGLR's.
Regards...........Dabchick

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 03:40
africanminer (happy new year kitcoites!!!) ID#257313:
May next year be prosperous and bright but more important may god grant unto all of us a free-market for gold bullion, free from the tyranny of Mr. Greenspan and all his global cronies and the old world aristocracy.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 02:56
mozel (@Highrise) ID#153110:
Maybe aurator could regale us with knowledge on the word graft. Seems fitting.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 02:31
Gollum (For followers of Selene) ID#43349:
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100q.htm

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 02:25
HighRise (MOZEL - Panama Canal) ID#401460:

December 31, 1999 the United States finally and completely gives up all control over the Panama Canal.

One of my employee's family is in Panama, thewy say that China now controls the ports at each end or side of the Canal. The US has a big problem, Clinton sold out the Canal to China.

HighRise


Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 02:16
mozel (@Stunning Long Wave Projections @December 31, 1999) ID#153110:
Driving down gold to the levels projected would be characteristic of a final outburst of fury by USG at the Euro threat to USD's reserve currency status. However, as I've said before, it doesn't matter what the price of gold is in London if you can't get any. It's also interesting that as the price of gold descends, the conjectured average price of production also descends. Something is not adding up here somewhere.

December 31, 1999 the United States finally and completely gives up all control over the Panama Canal.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 02:00
hugo (charts) ID#404312:

Fine looking charts out there.

buy gold without fear. there ain't no downside

silver might be a dollar higher in a week. a slow day tomorrow is your last chance for 5.00 silver

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 01:36
James (No doubt about it @Atlantic Canadians enjoy more sex.) ID#252150:
Not only among themselves, but they also manage to screw the rest of the Country as well by receiving much higher amounts of transfer payments per capita.
No wonder the people in B.C. have less sex. They're too tired from working overtime & second jobs in order to support their fellow Canadians on the east coast.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 01:36
Cage Rattler (Yen analysis) ID#33184:
Parallel line starting from the October low that is parallel to the monthly channel from 1995 has been broken. 113.86 is 0.50 Fibonacci retracement from the entire movement from April 1995 to fall of this year. In such conditions this adds a slight paperweight to the yen bullish end of the technical USDJPY scale. I am seeing reports that a 111.45 - 117.00 range is expected next week with major potential volatility in non-Euro rates...

Source: 'NY Yankee'

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 01:30
John Disney (AMAZING forecasts ..) ID#24135:
fella with similar genes on following site ..

http://www.ausinvest.net/community/Chris/061198a.htm

has a forecast for all commodities .. you may be
amazed ...

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 01:25
John Disney (.. we aint got no badges..) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
for salty and limey ..
Outstanding review of best movie of all time ..
Treasure of SM. However Limey omitted the fact that
the Americam tourist with the cigar in the white suit
that Bogey was hitting on was ... the director John
Huston ( son of walter ) ..
.. nice lines ..
think I'll have a look-see
5000 dollars is a lot of money ( used in many Huston
films )
swell dames
Im sure you both know Huston also directed African
Queen .. BUT do you know who wrote the film script..
clue .. he also wrote the words for perhaps the most
beautiful song in the English language .. and also
the script for robert mitcham's best film.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 01:23
dirt (thanks for the url , gulp & puff back to ya o' tolerant 1) ID#268404:

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 01:20
HighRise (Still Falling) ID#401460:
Yen
113.36
-1.74

HighRise

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 01:19
Cage Rattler ($/JPY =113.20 : first target is Oct. 7 low of $/JPY 111.60) ID#33184:


Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 01:14
Cage Rattler (RBA to include euro in trade index with 12.95% weighting) ID#33184:
Copyright © 1998 Cage Rattler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
SYDNEY ( AFX ) - The Reserve Bank of Australia said the euro will enter the Australian dollar's Trade Weighted Index ( TWI ) with a weighting of 12.95 pct from Jan 4.

The RBA said it has revised the weights used to calculate the TWI for the Australian dollar to incorporate the euro.

The TWI is normally reweighted every September, but in a statement the RBA said it considered the introduction of the euro of sufficient importance to world markets to justify a one-off reweighting.

It said the new calculation will include countries whose currencies were not previously included in the TWI.

The euro will replace the currencies of Germany, Italy, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Spain, which are currenlty in the index. However, the RBA said the new currency's weight will also reflect trade with Austria, Finland, Ireland and Portugal, currencies not currently included.

The RBA said the euro's weighting of 12.95 pct compares with the current combined weighting of euro currencies at 11.46 pct.

As a result, the weights of all other currencies in the index will decline slightly and one currency -- the United Arab Emirates dirham --will drop out, the RBA said.

The reweighting of the TWI will not result in any change to the level of the index.

The RBA released the following table:

New weighting Previous weighting

Japanese yen 18.6897 pct 18.8011
U.S. dollar 17.0484 pct 17.1500
European euro 12.9513 pct --
South Korean won 6.2748 pct 6.3122
New Zealand dollar 5.7965 pct 5.8310
Chinese renminbi 5.6704 pct 5.7042
British pound sterling 5.3361 pct 5.3679
New Taiwan dollar 4.3183 pct 4.3441
Singapore dollar 3.9154 pct 3.9388
Indonesian rupiah 3.4717 pct 3.4924
Hong Kong dollar 3.1949 pct 3.2139
Malaysian ringgit 2.7802 pct 2.7968
Thai baht 1.7686 pct 1.7792
Canadian dollar 1.6876 pct 1.6977
Indian rupee 1.5684 pct 1.5777
Swiss franc 1.2656 pct 1.2731
PNG kina 1.1871 pct 1.1942
Swedish krona 1.0592 pct 1.0655
South African rand 1.0376 pct 1.0437
Philippine peso 0.9782 pct 0.9841

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 01:12
HighRise (US $) ID#401460:

Yen
113.60
-1.50

HighRise

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 01:10
HighRise (LIft Off!) ID#401460:

http:///gold.graph.html

maybe

HighRise

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 01:09
Cage Rattler (@HighRise) ID#33184:
Yesterday pound ( very predictable ) and swiss franc were affected as EUR vs ECU position squaring took place.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 01:08
tolerant1 (dirt, Namaste', gulp and a puff to ya..e-gold is alive and well and has nice new look...) ID#20359:
http://www.e-gold.com/

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 01:04
HighRise (Cage Rattler - US$) ID#401460:

Yen
113.71
-1.39

This could be the start of something? EURO ?

HighRise

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 01:03
dirt (Is E-gold still around ?) ID#268404:
I need a place to put All my money into PM's until after the shakeout on Jan 1, 2000. Hey, if we all did this, E-gold would have to buy alot of PM's. Whaddaya think ?

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 00:59
Cage Rattler (Doolar free-falling vs yen - just hit 113.75) ID#33184:


Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 00:58
Auric (Theatre of the Absurd) ID#257312:

Here's the deal on Drudge, if you are following this-- He said that if everything falls into place, the story will be out in 4 to 6 days. People are now heading to safe houses. It will shake the seats of power. Biggest story in the last 100 years. Now that sounds pretty serious. Drudge has got hisself out on a limb with this. There better be some bygod earthshaking by January 5, or Drudge will join the ranks of discredited sensationalists.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 00:56
mozel (@Bills of Attainder @It's a slow night) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Cummings v. Missouri ( 1867 )
71 U.S. 277
Syllabus
1. Under the form of creating a qualification or attaching a
condition, the States cannot, in effect, inflict a punishment for a
past act which was not punishable at the time it was committed.
2. Deprivation or suspension of any civil rights for past conduct
is punishment for such conduct.
3. A bill of attainder is a legislative act which inflicts
punishment without a judicial trial. If the punishment be less than
death, the act is termed a bill of pains and penalties.
Within the meaning of the Constitution, bills of attainder include
bills of pains and penalties.
4. These bills, though generally directed against individuals by
name, may be directed against a whole class, and they may inflict
punishment absolutely or may inflict it conditionally.
5. The clauses of the Second Article of the Constitution of
Missouri ( set forth at length in the statement of the case, infra, pp.
279-281 ) , which require priests and clergymen, in order that they
may continue in the exercise of their professions and be allowed to
preach and teach, to take and subscribe an oath that they have not
committed certain designated acts, some of which were at the time
offences with heavy penalties attached, and some of which were at the
time acts innocent in themselves, constitute a bill of attainder
within the meaning of the provision in the Federal Constitution
prohibiting the States from passing bills of that character.
6. These clauses presume that the priests and clergymen are guilty
of the acts specified, and adjudge the deprivation of their right to
preach or teach unless the presumption be first removed by their
expurgatory oath; they assume the guilt and adjudge the punishment
conditionally.
7. There is no practical difference between assuming the guilt and
declaring it. The deprivation is effected with equal certainty in the
one case as in the other. The legal result is the same, on the
principle that what cannot be done directly cannot be done indirectly.
8. The prohibition of the Constitution was intended to secure the
rights of the citizen against deprivation for past conduct by
legislative enactment under any form, however disguised.
9. An ex post facto law is one which imposes a punishment for an
act which was not punishable at the time it was committed, or imposes
additional punishment to that then prescribed, or changes the rules of
evidence by which less or different testimony is sufficient to convict
than was then required.
10. The clauses of the Second Article of the Constitution of
Missouri, already referred to, in depriving priests and clergymen of
the right to preach and teach, impose a penalty for some acts which
were innocent at the time they were committed, and increase the
penalty prescribed for such of the acts specified as at the time
constituted public offences, and in both particulars violate the
provision of the Federal Constitution prohibiting the passage by the
State of an ex post facto law. They further violate that provision in
altering the rules of evidence with respect to the proof of the acts
specified -- thus, in assuming the guilt instead of the innocence of
the parties, in requiring them to establish their innocence instead of
requiring the government to prove their guilt, and in declaring that
their innocence can be shown only in one way, by an expurgatory oath.
11. Although the prohibition of the Constitution to pass an ex
post facto law is aimed at criminal cases, it cannot be evaded by
giving a civil form to that which is, in substance, criminal.
In January, 1865, a convention of representatives of the people of
Missouri assembled at St. Louis, for the purpose of amending the
constitution of the State. The representatives had been elected in
November, 1864. In April, 1865, the present constitution -- amended
and revised from the previous one -- was adopted by the convention;
and in June, 1865, by a vote of the people. The following are the
third, sixth, seventh, ninth, and fourteenth sections of the second
article of the constitution:
SEC. 3. At any election held by the people under this
Constitution, or in pursuance of any law of this State, or under any
ordinance or by-law of any municipal corporation, no person shall be
deemed a qualified voter, who has ever been in armed hostility to the
United States, or to the lawful authorities thereof, or to the
government of this State; or has ever given aid, comfort, countenance,
or support to persons engaged in any such hostility; or has ever, in
any manner, adhered to the enemies, foreign or domestic, of the United
States, either by contributing to them, or by unlawfully sending
within their lines, money, goods, letters, or information; or has ever
disloyally held communication with such enemies; or has ever advised
or aided any person to enter the service of such enemies; or has ever,
by act or word, manifested his adherence to the cause of such enemies,
or his desire for their triumph over the arms of the United States, or
his sympathy with those engaged in exciting or carrying on rebellion
against the United States; or has ever, except under overpowering
compulsion, submitted to the authority, or been in the service, of the
so-called Confederate States of America; or has ever left this
State, and gone within the lines of the armies of the so-called
Confederate States of America, with the purpose of adhering to said
States or armies; or has ever been a member of, or connected with, any
order, society, or organization, inimical to the government of the
United States, or to the government of this State; or has ever been
engaged in guerilla warfare against loyal inhabitants of the United
States, or in that description of marauding commonly known as
bush-whacking; or has ever knowingly and willingly harbored, aided,
or countenanced any person so engaged; or has ever come into or left
this State, for the purpose of avoiding enrollment for or draft into the military service of the United States; or has ever,
with a view to avoid enrollment in the militia of this State, or to
escape the performance of duty therein, or for any other purpose,
enrolled himself, or authorized himself to be enrolled, by or before
any officer, as disloyal, or as a southern sympathizer, or in any
other terms indicating his disaffection to the Government of the
United States in its contest with rebellion, or his sympathy with
those engaged in such rebellion; or, having ever voted at any election
by the people in this State, or in any other of the United States, or
in any of their Territories, or held office in this State, or in any
other of the United States, or in any of their Territories, or under
the United States, shall thereafter have sought or received, under
claim of alienage, the protection of any foreign government, through
any consul or other officer thereof, in order to secure exemption from
military duty in the militia of this State, or in the army of the
United States; nor shall any such person be capable of holding in this
State any office of honor, trust, or profit, under its authority; or
of being an officer, councilman, director, trustee, or other manager
of any corporation, public or private, now existing or hereafter
established by its authority; or of acting as a professor or teacher
in any educational institution, or in any common or other school; or
of holding any real estate or other property in trust for the use of
any church, religious society, or congregation. But the foregoing
provisions, in relation to acts done against the United States, shall
not apply to any person not a citizen thereof, who shall have
committed such acts while in the service of some foreign country at
war with the United States, and who has, since such acts, been
naturalized, or may hereafter be naturalized, under the laws of the
United States and the oath of loyalty hereinafter prescribed, when
taken by any such person, shall be considered as taken in such sense.
SEC. 6. The oath to be taken as aforesaid shall be known as the
Oath of Loyalty, and shall be in the following terms:
I, A. B., do solemnly swear that I am well acquainted with the
terms of the third section of the second article of the Constitution
of the State of Missouri, adopted in the year eighteen hundred and
sixty-five, and have carefully considered the same; that I have never,
directly or indirectly, done any of the acts in said section
specified; that I have always been truly and loyally on the side of
the United States against all enemies thereof, foreign and domestic;
that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the United States, and
will support the Constitution and laws thereof as the supreme law of the land, any law or ordinance of any State to the
contrary notwithstanding; that I will, to the best of my ability,
protect and defend the Union of the United States, and not allow the
same to be broken up and dissolved, or the government thereof to be
destroyed or overthrown, under any circumstances, if in my power to
prevent it; that I will support the Constitution of the State of
Missouri; and that I make this oath without any mental reservation or
evasion, and hold it to be binding on me.
SEC. 7. Within sixty days after this Constitution takes effect,
every person in this State holding any office of honor, trust, or
profit, under the Constitution or laws thereof, or under any municipal
corporation, or any of the other offices, positions, or trusts,
mentioned in the third section of this Article, shall take and
subscribe the said oath. If any officer or person referred to in this
section shall fail to comply with the requirements thereof, his
office, position, or trust, shall, ipso facto, become vacant, and the
vacancy shall be filled according to the law governing the case.
SEC. 9. No person shall assume the duties of any state, county,
city, town, or other office, to which he may be appointed, otherwise
than by a vote of the people; nor shall any person, after the
expiration of sixty days after this Constitution takes effect, be
permitted to practise as an attorney or counselor at law; nor, after
that time, shall any person be competent as a bishop, priest, deacon,
minister, elder, or other clergyman of any religious persuasion, sect,
or denomination, to teach, or preach, or solemnize marriages, unless
such person shall have first taken, subscribed, and filed said oath.
SEC. 14. Whoever shall, after the times limited in the seventh
and ninth sections of this Article, hold or exercise any of the
offices, positions, trusts, professions, or functions therein
specified, without having taken, subscribed, and filed said oath of
loyalty, shall, on conviction thereof, be punished by fine, not less
than five hundred dollars, or by imprisonment in the county jail not
less than six months, or by both such fine and imprisonment; and
whoever shall take said oath falsely, by swearing or by affirmation,
shall, on conviction thereof, be adjudged guilty of perjury, and be
punished by imprisonment in the penitentiary not less than two years.
In September, A.D. 1865, after the adoption of this constitution,
the Reverend Mr. Cummings, a priest of the Roman
Catholic Church, was indicted and convicted in the Circuit Court of
Pike County, in the State of Missouri, of the crime of teaching and
preaching in that month, as a priest and minister of that religious
denomination, without having first taken the oath prescribed by the
constitution of the State, and was sentenced to pay a fine of five
hundred dollars and to be committed to jail until said fine and costs
of suit were paid.
On appeal to the Supreme Court of the State, the judgment was
affirmed; and the case was brought to this Court on writ of error,
under the twenty-fifth section of the Judiciary Act.
FIELD, J., lead opinion
MR. JUSTICE FIELD delivered the opinion of the court.
This case comes before us on a writ of error to the Supreme Court
of Missouri, and involves a consideration of the test oath imposed by
the constitution of that State. The plaintiff in error is a priest of
the Roman Catholic Church, and was indicted and convicted in one of
the circuit courts of the State of the crime of teaching and preaching
as a priest and minister of that religious denomination without having
first taken the oath, and was sentenced to pay a fine of five hundred
dollars, and to be committed to jail until the same was paid. On
appeal to the Supreme Court of the State, the judgment was affirmed.
The oath prescribed by the constitution, divided into its
separable parts, embraces more than thirty distinct affirmations or
tests. Some of the acts, against which it is directed, constitute
offences of the highest grade, to which, upon conviction, heavy
penalties are attached. Some of the acts have never been classed as
offences in the laws of any State, and some of the acts, under many
circumstances, would not even be blameworthy. It requires the affiant
to deny not only that he has ever been in armed hostility to the
United States, or to the lawful authorities thereof, but, among other
things, that he has ever, by act or word, manifested his adherence
to the cause of the enemies of the United States,
foreign or domestic, or his desire for their triumph over the arms of
the United States, or his sympathy with those engaged in rebellion, or
has ever harbored or aided any person engaged in guerrilla warfare
against the loyal inhabitants of the United States, or has ever
entered or left the State for the purpose of avoiding enrollment or
draft in the military service of the United States; or, to escape the
performance of duty in the militia of the United States, has ever
indicated, in any terms, his disaffection to the government of the
United States in its contest with the Rebellion.
Every person who is unable to take this oath is declared incapable
of holding, in the State,
any office of honor, trust, or profit under its authority, or of being
an officer, councilman, director, or trustee, or other manager of any
corporation, public or private, now existing or hereafter established
by its authority, or of acting as a professor or teacher in any
educational institution, or in any common or other school, or of
holding any real estate or other property in trust for the use of any
church, religious society, or congregation.
And every person holding, at the time the constitution takes
effect, any of the offices, trusts, or positions mentioned is
required, within sixty days thereafter, to take the oath, and, if he
fail to comply with this requirement, it is declared that his office,
trust, or position shall ipso facto become vacant.
No person, after the expiration of the sixty days, is permitted,
without taking the oath,
to practice as an attorney or counselor at law, nor after that period
can any person be competent, as a bishop, priest, deacon, minister,
elder, or other clergyman, of any religious persuasion, sect, or
denomination, to teach, or preach, or solemnize marriages.
Fine and imprisonment are prescribed as a punishment for holding
or exercising any of the offices, positions, trusts, professions, or
functions specified, without having taken the oath, and false
swearing or affirmation in taking it is declared to be perjury,
punishable by imprisonment in the penitentiary.
The oath thus required is, for its severity, without any precedent
that we can discover. In the first place, it is retrospective; it
embraces all the past from this day, and, if taken years hence, it
will also cover all the intervening period. In its retrospective
feature, we believe it is peculiar to this country. In England and
France, there have been test oaths, but they were always limited to an
affirmation of present belief, or present disposition towards the
government, and were never exacted with reference to particular
instances of past misconduct. In the second place, the oath is
directed not merely against overt and visible acts of hostility to the
government, but is intended to reach words, desires, and sympathies,
also. And, in the third place, it allows no distinction between acts
springing from malignant enmity and acts which may have been prompted
by charity, or affection, or relationship. If one has ever expressed
sympathy with any who were drawn into the Rebellion, even if the
recipients of that sympathy were connected by the closest ties of
blood, he is as unable to subscribe to the oath as the most active and
the most cruel of the rebels, and is equally debarred from the offices
of honor or trust, and the positions and employments specified.
But, as it was observed by the learned counsel who appeared on
behalf of the State of Missouri, this Court cannot decide the case
upon the justice or hardship of these provisions. Its duty is to
determine whether they are in conflict with the Constitution of the
United States. On behalf of Missouri, it is urged that they only
prescribe a qualification for holding certain offices and practising
certain callings, and that it is therefore within the power of the
State to adopt them. On the other hand, it is contended that they are
in conflict with that clause of the Constitution which forbids any
State to pass a bill of attainder or an ex post facto law.
We admit the propositions of the counsel of Missouri that the
States which existed previous to the adoption of the Federal
Constitution possessed originally all the attributes of sovereignty;
that they still retain those attributes, except as they
have been surrendered by the formation of the Constitution and the
amendments thereto; that the new States, upon their admission into the
Union, became invested with equal rights, and were thereafter subject
only to similar restrictions, and that among the rights reserved to
the States is the right of each State to determine the qualifications
for office and the conditions upon which its citizens may exercise
their various callings and pursuits within its jurisdiction.
These are general propositions, and involve principles of the
highest moment. But it by no means follows that, under the form of
creating a qualification or attaching a condition, the States can in
effect inflict a punishment for a past act which was not punishable at
the time it was committed. The question is not as to the existence of
the power of the State over matters of internal police, but whether
that power has been made in the present case an instrument for the
infliction of punishment against the inhibition of the Constitution.
Qualifications relate to the fitness or capacity of the party for
a particular pursuit or profession. Webster defines the term to mean
any natural endowment or any acquirement which fits a person for a
place, office, or employment, or enables him to sustain any character,
with success.
It is evident from the nature of the pursuits and professions of the
parties placed under disabilities by the constitution of Missouri that
many of the acts from the taint of which they must purge themselves
have no possible relation to their fitness for those pursuits and
professions. There can be no connection between the fact that Mr.
Cummings entered or left the State of Missouri to avoid enrollment or
draft in the military service of the United States and his fitness to
teach the doctrines or administer the sacraments of his church; nor
can a fact of this kind or the expression of words of sympathy with
some of the persons drawn into the Rebellion constitute any evidence
of the unfitness of the attorney or counselor to practice his
profession, or of the professor to teach the ordinary branches of
education, or of the want of business knowledge or
business capacity in the manager of a corporation, or in any director
or trustee. It is manifest upon the simple statement of many of the
acts and of the professions and pursuits that there is no such
relation between them as to render a denial of the commission of the
acts at all appropriate as a condition of allowing the exercise of the
professions and pursuits. The oath could not, therefore, have been
required as a means of ascertaining whether parties were qualified or
not for their respective callings or the trusts with which they were
charged. It was required in order to reach the person, not the
calling. It was exacted not from any notion that the several acts
designated indicated unfitness for the callings, but because it was
thought that the several acts deserved punishment, and that, for many
of them, there was no way to inflict punishment except by depriving
the parties who had committed them of some of the rights and
privileges of the citizen.
The disabilities created by the Constitution of Missouri must be
regarded as penalties -- they constitute punishment. We do not agree
with the counsel of Missouri that to punish one is to deprive him of
life, liberty, or property, and that to take from him anything less
than these is no punishment at all. The learned counsel does not use
these terms -- life, liberty, and property -- as comprehending every
right known to the law. He does not include under liberty freedom
from outrage on the feelings as well as restraints on the person. He
does not include under property those estates which one may acquire in
professions, though they are often the source of the highest
emoluments and honors. The deprivation of any rights, civil or
political, previously enjoyed may be punishment, the circumstances
attending and the causes of the deprivation determining this fact.
Disqualification from office many be punishment, as in cases of
conviction upon impeachment. Disqualification from the pursuits of a
lawful avocation, or from positions of trust, or from the privilege of
appearing in the courts, or acting as an executor, administrator, or
guardian, may also, and often has been, imposed as punishment. By
statute 9 and 10 William III, chap. 32, if any person
educated in or having made a profession of the Christian religion did,
by writing, printing, teaching, or advised speaking, deny the truth
of the religion, or the divine authority of the Scriptures, he was for
the first offence rendered incapably to hold any office or place of
trust, and for the second he was rendered incapable of bringing any
action, being guardian, executor, legatee, or purchaser of lands,
besides being subjected to three years' imprisonment without
bail.
By statute 1 George I, chap. 13, contempts against the King's
title arising from refusing or neglecting to take certain prescribed
oaths and yet acting in an office or place of trust for which they
were required were punished by incapacity to hold any public office,
to prosecute any suit, to be guardian or executor, to take any legacy
or deed of gift, and to vote at any election for members of
Parliament, and the offender was also subject to a forfeiture of five
hundred pounds to anyone who would sue for the same,
Some punishments, says Blackstone,
consist in exile or banishment, by abjuration of the realm or
transportation; others in loss of liberty by perpetual or temporary
imprisonment. Some extend to confiscation by forfeiture of lands or
movables, or both, or of the profits of lands for life; others induce
a disability of holding offices or employments, being heirs,
executors, and the like.
In France, deprivation or suspension of civil rights, or of some
of them, and among these of the right of voting, of eligibility to
office, of taking part in family councils, of being guardian or
trustee, of bearing arms, and of teaching or being employed in a
school or seminary of learning, are punishments prescribed by her
code.
The theory upon which our political institutions rest is, that all
men have certain inalienable rights; that among these are life,
liberty, and the pursuit of happiness; and that, in the pursuit of
happiness, all avocations, all honors, all positions are alike open to
everyone, and that in the protection [71 U.S. 322] of these rights all
are equal before the law. Any deprivation or suspension of any of
these rights for past conduct is punishment, and can be in no other
wise defined.
Punishment not being, therefore, restricted, as contended by
counsel, to the deprivation of life, liberty, or property, but also
embracing deprivation or suspension of political or civil rights, and
the disabilities prescribed by the provisions of the Missouri
Constitution being in effect punishment, we proceed to consider
whether there is any inhibition in the Constitution of the United
States against their enforcement.
The counsel for Missouri closed his argument in this case by
presenting a striking picture of the struggle for ascendency in that
State during the recent Rebellion between the friends and the enemies
of the Union, and of the fierce passions which that struggle aroused.
It was in the midst of the struggle that the present constitution was
framed, although it was not adopted by the people until the war had
closed. It would have been strange, therefore, had it not exhibited
in its provisions some traces of the excitement amidst which the
convention held its deliberations.
It was against the excited action of the States, under such
influences as these, that the framers of the Federal Constitution
intended to guard. In Fletcher v. Peck, Mr. Chief Justice
Marshall, speaking of such action, uses this language:
Whatever respect might have been felt for the State sovereignties, it
is not to be disguised that the framers of the Constitution viewed
with some apprehension the violent acts which might grow out of the
feelings of the moment, and that the people of the United States, in
adopting that instrument, have manifested a determination to shield
themselves and their property from the effects of those sudden and
strong passions to which men are exposed. The restrictions on the
legislative power of the States are obviously founded in this
sentiment, and the Constitution of the United States contains what may
be deemed a bill of rights for the people of each State. [71 U.S. 323]
No State shall pass any bill of attainder, ex post facto law, or
law impairing the obligation of contracts.
A bill of attainder is a legislative act which inflicts punishment
without a judicial trial.
If the punishment be less than death, the act is termed a bill of
pains and penalties. Within the meaning of the Constitution, bills of
attainder include bills of pains and penalties. In these cases, the
legislative body, in addition to its legitimate functions, exercises
the powers and office of judge; it assumes, in the language of the
textbooks, judicial magistracy; it pronounces upon the guilt of the
party without any of the forms or safeguards of trial; it determines
the sufficiency of the proofs produced, whether conformable to the
rules of evidence or otherwise; and it fixes the degree of punishment
in accordance with its own nations of the enormity of the offence.
Bills of this sort, says Mr. Justice Story,
have been most usually passed in England in times of rebellion, or
gross subserviency to the Crown, or of violent political excitements
-- periods in which all nations are most liable ( as well the free as
the enslaved ) to forget their duties and to trample upon the rights
and liberties of others.
These bills are generally directed against individuals by name,
but they may be directed against a whole class. The bill against the
Earl of Kildare and others, passed in the reign of Henry VIII,
enacted that all such persons which be or heretofore have been
comforters, abettors, partakers, confederates, or adherents unto the
said late earl, and certain other parties, who were named, in his or
their false and traitorous acts and purposes, shall in likewise stand,
and be attainted, adjudged, and convicted of high treason, and that
the same attainder, judgment, and conviction against the said
comforters, abettors, partakers, confederates, and adherents, shall be
as strong and effectual in the law against them, and every of them, as
though they and every of them [71 U.S. 324] had been specially,
singularly, and particularly named by their proper names and surnames
in the said act.
These bills may inflict punishment absolutely or may inflict it
conditionally.
The bill against the Earl of Clarendon, passed in the reign of
Charles the Second, enacted that the earl should suffer perpetual
exile, and be forever banished from the realm; and that, if he
returned, or was found in England, or in any other of the King's
dominions, after the first of February, 1667, he should suffer the
pains and penalties of treason, with the proviso, however, that if be
surrendered himself before the said first day of February for trial,
the penalties and disabilities declared should be void and of no
effect.
A British act of Parliament, to cite the language of the Supreme
Court of Kentucky,
might declare, that if certain individuals, or a class of individuals,
failed to do a given act by a named day, they should be deemed to be,
and treated as convicted felons or traitors. Such an act comes
precisely within the definition of a bill of attainder, and the
English courts would enforce it without indictment or trial by
jury.
If the clauses of the second article of the Constitution of
Missouri to which we have referred had in terms declared that Mr.
Cummings was guilty, or should be held guilty, of having been in armed
hostility to the United States, or of having entered that State to
avoid being enrolled or drafted into the military service of the
United States, and, therefore, should be deprived of the right to
preach as a priest of the Catholic Church, or to teach in any
institution of learning, there could be no question that the clauses
would constitute a bill of attainder within the meaning of the Federal
Constitution. If these clauses, instead of mentioning his name, had
declared that all priests and clergymen within the State of Missouri
were guilty of these acts, or should be held guilty of them, and hence
be subjected to the like deprivation, the clauses would be equally
open to objection. And [71 U.S. 325] further, if these clauses had
declared that all such priests and clergymen should be so held guilty,
and be thus deprived, provided they did not, by a day designated, do
certain specified acts, they would be no less within the inhibition of
the Federal Constitution.
In all these cases, there would be the legislative enactment
creating the deprivation without any of the ordinary forms and guards
provided for the security of the citizen in the administration of
justice by the established tribunals.
The results which would follow from clauses of the character
mentioned do follow from the clauses actually adopted. The difference
between the last case supposed and the case actually presented is one
of form only, and not of substance. The existing clauses presume the
guilt of the priests and clergymen, and adjudge the deprivation of
their right to preach or teach unless the presumption be first removed
by their expurgatory oath -- in other words, they assume the guilt and
adjudge the punishment conditionally. The clauses supposed differ
only in that they declare the guilt instead of assuming it. The
deprivation is effected with equal certainty in the one case as it
would be in the other, but not with equal directness. The purpose of
the lawmaker in the case supposed would be openly avowed; in the case
existing, it is only disguised. The legal result must be the same,
for what cannot be done directly cannot be done indirectly. The
Constitution deals with substance, not shadows. Its inhibition was
leveled at the thing, not the name. It intended that the rights of
the citizen should be secure against deprivation for past conduct by
legislative enactment, under any form, however disguised. If the
inhibition can be evaded by the form of the enactment, its insertion
in the fundamental law was a vain and futile proceeding.
We proceed to consider the second clause of what Mr. Chief Justice
Marshall terms a bill of rights for the people of each State -- the
clause which inhibits the passage of an ex post facto law.
By an ex post facto law is meant one which imposes a punishment
[71 U.S. 326] for an act which was not punishable at the time it was
committed; or imposes additional punishment to that then prescribed;
or changes the rules of evidence by which less or different testimony
is sufficient to convict than was then required.
In Fletcher v. Peck, Mr. Chief Justice Marshall defined an ex post
facto law to be one which renders an act punishable in a manner in
which it was not punishable when it was committed. Such a law,
said that eminent judge,
may inflict penalties on the person, or may inflict pecuniary
penalties which swell the public treasury. The legislature is then
prohibited from passing a law by which a man's estate, or any part of
it, shall be seized for a crime, which was not declared by some
previous law to render him liable to that punishment. Why, then,
should violence be done to the natural meaning of words for the
purpose of leaving to the legislature the power of seizing for public
use the estate of an individual, in the form of a law annulling the
title by which he holds the estate? The Court can perceive no
sufficient grounds for making this distinction. This rescinding act
would have the effect of an ex post facto law. It forfeits the estate
of Fletcher for a crime not committed by himself, but by those from
whom he purchased. This cannot be effected in the form of an ex post
facto law, or bill of attainder; why, then, is it allowable in the
form of a law annulling the original grant?
The act to which reference is here made was one passed by the
State of Georgia rescinding a previous act under which lands had been
granted. The rescinding act, annulling the title of the grantees, did
not, in terms, define any crimes, or inflict any punishment, or direct
any judicial proceedings; yet, inasmuch as the legislature was
forbidden from passing any law by which a man's estate could be seized
for a crime which was not declared such by some previous law rendering
him liable to that punishment, the Chief Justice was of opinion that
the rescinding act had the effect of an ex post facto law, and was
within the constitutional prohibition. [71 U.S. 327]
The clauses in the Missouri Constitution which are the subject of
consideration do not, in terms, define any crimes or declare that any
punishment shall be inflicted, but they produce the same result upon
the parties against whom they are directed as though the crimes were
defined and the punishment was declared. They assume that there are
persons in Missouri who are guilty of some of the acts designated.
They would have no meaning in the constitution were not such the fact.
They are aimed at past acts, and not future acts. They were intended
especially to operate upon parties who, in some form or manner, by
action or words, directly or indirectly, had aided or countenanced the
Rebellion, or sympathized with parties engaged in the Rebellion, or
had endeavored to escape the proper responsibilities and duties of a
citizen in time of war, and they were intended to operate by depriving
such persons of the right to hold certain offices and trusts, and to
pursue their ordinary and regular avocations. This deprivation is
punishment, nor is it any less so because a way is opened for escape
from it by the expurgatory oath. The framers of the constitution of
Missouri knew at the time that whole classes of individuals would be
unable to take the oath prescribed. To them there is no escape
provided; to them the deprivation was intended to be, and is, absolute
and perpetual. To make the enjoyment of a right dependent upon an
impossible condition is equivalent to an absolute denial of the right
under any condition, and such denial, enforced for a past act, is
nothing less than punishment imposed for that act. It is a
misapplication of terms to call it anything else.
Now some of the acts to which the expurgatory oath is directed
were not offences at the time they were committed. It was no offence
against any law to enter or leave the State of Missouri for the
purpose of avoiding enrollment or draft in the military service of the
United States, however much the evasion of such service might be the
subject of moral censure. Clauses which prescribe a penalty for an
act of this nature are within the terms of the definition of an ex [71
U.S. 328] post facto law -- they impose a punishment for an act not
punishable at the time it was committed.
Some of the acts at which the oath is directed constituted high
offences at the time they were committed, to which, upon conviction,
fine and imprisonment or other heavy penalties were attached. The
clauses which provide a further penalty for these acts are also within
the definition of an ex post facto law -- they impose additional
punishment to that prescribed when the act was committed.
And this is not all. The clauses in question subvert the
presumptions of innocence, and alter the rules of evidence, which
heretofore, under the universally recognized principles of the common
law, have been supposed to be fundamental and unchangeable. They
assume that the parties are guilty; they call upon the parties to
establish their innocence; and they declare that such innocence can be
shown only in one way -- by an inquisition, in the form of an
expurgatory oath, into the consciences of the parties.
The objectionable character of these clauses will be more apparent
if we put them into the ordinary form of a legislative act. Thus, if
instead of the general provisions in the constitution, the convention
had provided as follows : Be it enacted, that all persons who have
been in armed hostility to the United States shall, upon conviction
thereof, not only be punished as the laws provided at the time the
offences charged were committed, but shall also be thereafter rendered
incapable of holding any of the offices, trusts, and positions, and of
exercising any of the pursuits mentioned in the second article of the
Constitution of Missouri -- no one would have any doubt of the nature
of the enactment. It would be an ex post facto law, and void, for it
would add a new punishment for an old offence. So, too, if the
convention had passed an enactment of a similar kind with reference to
those acts which do not constitute offences. Thus, had it provided as
follows: Be it enacted, that all persons who have heretofore, at any
time, entered or left the State of Missouri, with intent to avoid
enrollment or draft in the military service of the United States,
shall, upon conviction [71 U.S. 329] thereof, be forever rendered
incapable of holding any office of honor, trust, or profit in the
State, or of teaching in any seminary of learning, or of preaching as
a minister of the gospel of any denomination, or of exercising any of
the professions or pursuits mentioned in the second article of the
constitution -- there would be no question of the character of the
enactment. It would be an ex post facto law, because it would impose
a punishment for an act not punishable at the time it was committed.
The provisions of the constitution of Missouri accomplish
precisely what enactments like those supposed would have accomplished.
They impose the same penalty, without the formality of a judicial
trial and conviction, for the parties embraced by the supposed
enactments would be incapable of taking the oath prescribed; to them,
its requirement would be an impossible condition. Now, as the State,
had she attempted the course supposed, would have failed, it must
follow that any other mode producing the same result must equally
fail. The provision of the Federal Constitution, intended to secure
the liberty of the citizen, cannot be evaded by the form in which the
power of the State is exerted. If this were not so, if that which
cannot be accomplished by means looking directly to the end can be
accomplished by indirect means, the inhibition may be evaded at
pleasure. No kind of oppression can be named, against which the
framers of the Constitution intended to guard, which may not be
effected. Take the case supposed by counsel -- that of a man tried
for treason and acquitted, or, if convicted, pardoned -- the
legislature may nevertheless enact that, if the person thus acquitted
or pardoned does not take an oath that he never has committed the acts
charged against him, he shall not be permitted to hold any office of
honor or trust or profit, or pursue any avocation in the State. Take
the case before us -- the Constitution of Missouri, as we have seen,
excludes, on failure to take the oath prescribed by it, a large class
of persons within her borders from numerous positions and pursuits; it
would have been equally within the power of the State to have extended
the [71 U.S. 330] exclusion so as to deprive the parties, who are
unable to take the oath, from any avocation whatever in the State.
Take still another case: suppose that, in the progress of events,
persons now in the minority in the State should obtain the ascendency,
and secure the control of the government; nothing could prevent, if
the constitutional prohibition can be evaded, the enactment of a
provision requiring every person, as a condition of holding any
position of honor or trust, or of pursuing any avocation in the State,
to take an oath that he had never advocated or advised or supported
the imposition of the present expurgatory oath. Under this form of
legislation, the most flagrant invasion of private rights, in periods
of excitement, may be enacted, and individuals, and even whole
classes, may be deprived of political and civil rights.
A question arose in New York, soon after the treaty of peace of
1783, upon a statute of that State, which involved a discussion of the
nature and character of these expurgatory oaths, when used as a means
of inflicting punishment for past conduct. The subject was regarded
as so important, and the requirement of the oath such a violation of
the fundamental principles of civil liberty and the rights of the
citizen, that it engaged the attention of eminent lawyers and
distinguished statesmen of the time, and, among others, of Alexander
Hamilton. We will cite some passages of a paper left by him on the
subject in which, with his characteristic fullness and ability, he
examines the oath and demonstrates that it is not only a mode of
inflicting punishment, but a mode in violation of all the
constitutional guarantees, secured by the Revolution, of the rights
and liberties of the people.
If we examine it ( the measure requiring the oath ) , said this
great lawyer,
with an unprejudiced eye, we must acknowledge not only that it was an
evasion of the treaty, but a subversion of one great principle of
social security, to-wit, that every man shall be presumed innocent
until he is proved guilty. This was to invert the order of things
and, instead of obliging the State to prove the guilt in order [71
U.S. 331] to inflict the penalty, it was to oblige the citizen to
establish his own innocence to avoid the penalty. It was to excite
scruples in the honest and conscientious, and to hold out a bribe to
perjury. . . . It was a mode of inquiry who had committed and of
those crimes to which the penalty of disqualification was annexed,
with this aggravation, that it deprived the citizen of the benefit of
that advantage, which he would have enjoyed by leaving, as in all
other cases, the burden of the proof upon the prosecutor.
To place this matter in a still clearer light, let it be supposed
that, instead of the mode of indictment and trial by jury, the
legislature was to declare that every citizen who did not swear he had
never adhered to the King of Great Britain should incur all the
penalties which our treason laws prescribe. Would this not be a
palpable evasion of the treaty, and a direct infringement of the
Constitution? The principle is the same in both cases, with only this
difference in the consequences -- that, in the instance already acted
upon, the citizen forfeits a part of his rights; in the one supposed,
he would forfeit the whole. The degree of punishment is all that
distinguishes the cases. In either, justly considered, it is
substituting a new and arbitrary mode of prosecution to that ancient
and highly esteemed one recognized by the laws and constitution of the
State. I mean the trial by jury.
Let us not forget that the Constitution declares that trial by
jury, in all cases in which it has been formerly used, should remain
inviolate forever, and that the legislature should at no time erect
any new jurisdiction which should not proceed according to the course
of the common law. Nothing can be more repugnant to the true genius
of the common law than such an inquisition as has been mentioned into
the consciences of men. . . . If any oath with retrospect to past
conduct were to be made the condition on which individuals, who have
resided within the British lines, should hold their estates, we should
immediately see that this proceeding would be tyrannical, and a
violation of the treaty; and yet, when the same mode is employed to
divest [71 U.S. 332] that right, which ought to be deemed still more
sacred, many of us are so infatuated as to overlook the mischief.
To say that the persons who will be affected by it have previously
forfeited that right, and that, therefore, nothing is taken away from
them, is a begging of the question. How do we know who are the
persons in this situation? If it be answered, this is the mode taken
to ascertain it -- the objection returns -- 'tis an improper mode,
because it puts the most essential interests of the citizen upon a
worse footing than we should be willing to tolerate where inferior
interests were concerned, and because, to elude the treaty, it
substitutes for the established and legal mode of investigating crimes
and inflicting forfeitures, one that is unknown to the Constitution,
and repugnant to the genius of our law.
Similar views have frequently been expressed by the judiciary in
cases involving analogous questions. They are presented with great
force in The matter of Dorsey, but we do not deem it necessary
to pursue the subject further.
The judgment of the Supreme Court of Missouri must be reversed,
and the cause remanded with directions to enter a judgment reversing
the judgment of the Circuit Court, and directing that court to
discharge the defendant from imprisonment, and suffer him to depart
without day.
AND IT IS SO ORDERED.
THE CHIEF JUSTICE, and MESSRS. JUSTICE SWAYNE, DAVIS, and MILLER
dissented. In behalf of this portion of the Court, a dissenting
opinion was delivered by MR. JUSTICE MILLER. This opinion applied
equally or more to the case of Ex parte Garland ( the case next
following ) , which involved principles of a character similar to those
discussed in this case. The dissenting opinion is, therefore,
published after the opinion of the court in that case.
Footnotes
FIELD, J., lead opinion ( Footnotes )
­ 1. 4 Black. 44.
­ 2. Id. 124.
­ 3. Id. 377.
­ 4. Cranch 137.
­ 5. Commentaries, § 1344.
­ 6. 28 Henry VIII, chap. 18; 3 Stats. of Realm, 694.
­ 7. Printed in 6 Howell's State Trials, p. 391.
­ 8. Gaines v. Buford, 1 Dana 510.
­ 9. 7 Porter 294.
Cases citing this case . . .
The following 36 case ( s ) in the USSC+ database cite this case:
Collins v. Youngblood, 497 U.S. 37 ( 1990 )
Selective Svc. Sys. v. Minnesota Pub. Interest Research Group,
468 U.S. 841 ( 1984 )
Weaver v. Graham, 450 U.S. 24 ( 1981 )
Bell v. Wolfish, 441 U.S. 520 ( 1979 )
Nixon v. Administrator of General Services, 433 U.S. 425 ( 1977 )
Dobbert v. Florida, 432 U.S. 282 ( 1977 )
United States Trust Co. v. New Jersey, 431 U.S. 1 ( 1977 )
McGautha v. California, 402 U.S. 183 ( 1971 )
Griswold v. Connecticut, 381 U.S. 479 ( 1965 )
United States v. Brown, 381 U.S. 437 ( 1965 )
United States v. Gainey, 380 U.S. 63 ( 1965 )
Bouie v. City of Columbia, 378 U.S. 347 ( 1964 )
Kennedy v. Mendoza-Martinez, 372 U.S. 144 ( 1963 )
Communist Party of United States v. SACB, 367 U.S. 1 ( 1961 )
Konigsberg v. State Bar of California, 366 U.S. 36 ( 1961 )
Flemming v. Nestor, 363 U.S. 603 ( 1960 )
Speiser v. Randall, 357 U.S. 513 ( 1958 )
Trop v. Dulles, 356 U.S. 86 ( 1958 )
Lehmann v. Carson, 353 U.S. 685 ( 1957 )
Konigsberg v. State Bar of California, 353 U.S. 252 ( 1957 )
Schware v. Board of Bar Examiners, 353 U.S. 232 ( 1957 )
Ullmann v. United States, 350 U.S. 422 ( 1956 )
Marcello v. INS, 349 U.S. 302 ( 1955 )
Barsky v. Board of Regents, 347 U.S. 442 ( 1954 )
Harisiades v. Shaughnessy, 342 U.S. 580 ( 1952 )
Garner v. Board of Public Works of Los Angeles, 341 U.S. 716
( 1951 )
American Communications Assn. v. Douds, 339 U.S. 382 ( 1950 )
Everson v. Board of Education, 330 U.S. 1 ( 1947 )
United States v. Lovett, 328 U.S. 303 ( 1946 )
In re Yamashita, 427 U.S. 1 ( 1946 )
Bridges v. Wixon, 326 U.S. 135 ( 1945 )
In re Summers, 325 U.S. 561 ( 1945 )
Keegan v. United States, 325 U.S. 478 ( 1945 )
Williams v. North Carolina, 325 U.S. 226 ( 1945 )
Weems v. United States, 217 U.S. 349 ( 1910 )
Dent v. West Virginia, 129 U.S. 114 ( 1889 )



Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 00:54
HighRise (tolerant1 - Good Question!) ID#401460:

Being Canadians, I am not sure it would.

HighRise :- )

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 00:48
tolerant1 (HighRise, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...) ID#20359:
Did that percentage go up if another person was in the room?

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 00:37
HighRise (For You Canadians Out There.) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

National survey indicates Canada's have-not regions enjoy more frequent, better sex

TORONTO ( December 30, 1998 7:19 p.m. EST
http://www.nandotimes.com ) - A national survey indicates Canadians in regions with traditionally high unemployment and slower economic growth are having more frequent and better sex than their counterparts in the rest of Canada.

The bedrooms of the nation are busiest and happiest in the four Atlantic provinces of Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, but less so further west, according to a Southam News-POLLARA
survey reported in the National Post newspaper
Wednesday.

Atlantic Canadians, who generally face higher
unemployment and fewer economic opportunities, lead all Canadians with a sexual frequency of 8.28 times a month, the study said.

French-speaking Quebecers, who often pride themselves as masters in the art of passion, also managed a respectable showing with a sexual frequency of 7.78 times a month.

The Atlantic provinces and Quebec all have
unemployment rates higher than the national average of 8 percent.

Interest in sex, however, declines as one enters Ontario, the economic engine of Canada, and continues to drop off through the Prairie provinces and British Columbia.

Sexual frequency drops to 7.18 times a month in Ontario, 7.09 in Manitoba and Saskatchewan and 6.91 in Alberta.

British Columbia, considered to be one of the most desirable and prosperous places to live in Canada, was last with a sexual frequency of 6.57 times a month.

Overall, three quarters of Canadians said they were satisfied with their sex lives, with 43 percent saying they were very satisfied, the study said.

The findings dovetail with a similar nationwide poll published last year, which found Atlantic Canadians were more satisfied with their sex lives than other Canadians.

The poll was conducted last week among 1,000
Canadians from across the country and is considered accurate within 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

HighRise

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 00:11
Schippi (Fidelity Gold & Precious Metals Continue UP) ID#105139:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.gif

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 00:09
RJ (..... And the Final Two Posts of Last Year .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Date: Wed Dec 31 1997 23:58
Haggis__A ( aurator........... ) ID#398105:

G'Day,

You will have noticed that, in your dealings with Pommies, they don't tend to pop their heads up, too often. Hands up the Poms?!

Aye, Haggis


Date: Wed Dec 31 1997 23:58
aurator ( She's here ) ID#257148:

1998

Such a beautiful baby, full of promise.



OK……….

Who will hold the coveted position of last post for the year this trip around the sun?

Huh?



Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 00:09
mozel (@Mo In To @Silverbaron) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
@Mo In To We are absolutely without a permanent money system. No permanent money system implies to me no permanent money. I know we can't take it with us, but don't you think permanence of money is a basic requirement for social security ?

@Silverbaron Don't know McNab's Law. New Detention features of latest anti-terrorist legislation permit individual and group detention and much more.

These are what is known as Bills of Attainder which are allowed to No State under the Constitution. Theoretically. Actually, a good deal of what passes for legislation by State legislatures nowadays are Bills of Attainder.

Date: Thu Dec 31 1998 00:02
RJ (..... Envy .....) ID#411259:

Cool Image

Yep

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