KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 22:54
Spock (Belated Xmas wishes) ID#210114:
Copyright © 1998 Spock/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Hoping that everyone had a wonderful Christmas with their friends and families.

I was intrigued by RJ's comments on a strong recovery in gold next year.

I'm inclined to agree for two reasons. Firstly, gold has built a base this year. It has essentially been between $275 and $300 all year. The big declines were in 1997. Secondly, I just find it difficult to believe that the POG will stay where it is for another 12 months. This plus Y2K fears and the potential fall of the US stockmarket may just very well get us to $US350.

Having said that, I would have thought that we'd got above $300 this year but it didn't eventuate.

Time will tell.

Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 21:46
neer-do-well (Deflation?) ID#391172:
Watching TV and an add keeps coming on whereby a lending agency promotes putting all an individuals together, payiong them off and all they have to do is negogiate a mortgage on their home. Easy apyments. sort of makes debt painless. Conclusion; lender is betting on deflation, certainly not inflation. Who is doing it...so,mebody with a whole lot of money...who wants more.

Jerry Spence? sounds pretty good.. Give Me Liberty

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 21:03
ptwoskool (@Greenstone Gold) ID#225369:
Yes,it would not surprise me if the bonus was paid.Imagine what our investments in gold and other defensive investments would have done if the bailout had not been engineered by the fed.The goldbug bonus was postponed.Preempted.

Makes you wanna' pay your taxes don't it.

What did it teach me? Don't fight the fed.What did I learn from it? The fed doesn't fight fair.What do I feel? I want MY money!

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 19:30
Greenstone Gold (LTCM....the bhouys doing it tough.........) ID#428218:

http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_241000/241793.stm

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 19:21
ERLE (Everyone must be snoozin') ID#190411:
Turkey naps.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 17:10
mozel (@There Is No Gold Carry Trade) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gold is not being carried. The greenback is being carried by suppressing the price of gold by allowing production promises to trade on a par with gold out of the ground and by leasing of gold to favored parties which have no use for it and sell it to obtain leverage capital and by some outright sales.

Likewise the so called yen carry would be better named the greenback bond carry.

American strategy has been to attract capital to its capital markets with tax exemptions and growth so that the prospect of an end to the greenback carry would involve other countries to help carry it. A lot of the capital that was attracted was reloaned to Asia and South America at an advantage. This strategy worked best with Japan, UK, and the children of UK, Can, Aus, and NZ. Hence, the cooperation of LBMA in allowing paper gold into the gold market at par and the gold sales.

Soon every reserve unit lost to ECB in a drop in the greenback will be compensated by an increase in their gold reserve market value.
When no other party except USG is dishoarding gold via leases and sales to carry the greenback vis a vis gold, the greenback carry will be over.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 17:03
morbius (@Gollum (Over the crest)) ID#35757:
Very interesting! Thanks.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 16:59
cherokee (@...running.with.a.roadrunner....) ID#288231:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee All rights reserved

the engine of our success....subsidies the wheels.....

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha65.gif

if one were to live the mantra of the greatest traders
of all time.......this market would be in the pocket so
to speak.....it has been for me..as has gold for what seems
an eternity....the crude one and gold are as birds of a
feather....they flock to the ground together..and await
the shot of the gun....my quiver lies empty upon the
sands of the recent past.....the very life-blood of the
machine--cheaper than water!! physics relegates changes.

chaos and flux demand the pendulum return from whence it came...
the arc attained...she moves toward those who know they are
out of harms way...it is the way...peopleo wake up dead all
the time........better to awaken NOW......yes, that is how.

cherokee!;...spitting.turkey.feathers....how!

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 16:57
Goldteck (NBA Sad Christmas for the players?) ID#431200:
Copyright © 1998 Goldteck/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
NBA, Union May Meet This Weekend By CHRIS SHERIDAN
AP Basketball Writer Stern has set a Jan. 7th deadline http://wire.ap.org/APnews/main.html?PACKAGEID=SPTbasketball DECEMBER 24, 16:09 ESTAgent: NBA Owners Have Advantage By HAL BOCK
AP Sports Writer NEW YORK ( AP ) — When millionaires get into a bankroll battle with billionaires, the millionaires lose.
That's the view of longtime player agent Norman Blass, who believes the National Basketball Players Association is at a permanent economic disadvantage in its lockout battle with NBA owners. http://wire.ap.org/APnews/center_story.html?FRONTID=BASKETBALL&STORYID=APIS6Q1AQ R80
 

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 16:48
morbius (@Skeptic ) ID#35757:
Removal requires 2/3. A tie is not possible.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 16:38
Gazebo (AUwolf & mole.......) ID#432298:
May your dreams be marry....Gold on the rise in '99.

I doubt it very much, at least not until years end.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 16:34
AUwolf (ohmmm) ID#254130:
Copyright © 1998 AUwolf/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
http://www.newsday.com/ap/financex.htm
3:48 pm Grains, Soybeans Up; Trading Light
3:44 pm Mercedes-Benz Alabama Exec Promoted
3:37 pm Indonesia Rights Group Eyes Mobil
3:22 pm Thursday's Money Rates
3:17 pm Retail Money Funds Down in Week
3:14 pm Nonferrous Metal Prices
3:12 pm Personal Income Surges in November
3:06 pm AP Financial News at 3:10 p.m. EST
2:39 pm Bonds Fall for 4th Straight Session
2:35 pm Dollar Up Vs. Most Major Currencies
2:31 pm Thursday World Gold Prices
1:15 pm Kids' Toy Car Is Updated
1:12 pm First Mortgage Rate Hike in 6 Weeks
1:08 pm Europe: Dollar Mixed; Gold Lower
12:46 pm London Shares Close Lower
12:27 pm TWA, Machinists To Renew Talks
12:23 pm Thursday World Gold Prices
12:12 pm China: Banks OK Under Spending Plan
11:37 am Soybeans, Grains, Move Higher
11:35 am Treasury Bond Prices Continue Down
11:11 am Thursday Gold Coin Prices

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 16:18
AUwolf (Lots of Bear Sightings in 1998) ID#254130:
Copyright © 1998 AUwolf/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn05.htm

By BRUCE MEYERSON AP Business Writer

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Was it a bear market?

Let the historians decide. No matter how they choose to describe what
happened in the stock market in 1998, there seems to be a bull galloping
its way into 1999.

Then again, since the majority of today's investors have never been
through a real bear market, 1998 had to have been a sobering
experience, regardless of its huge autumn rebound.

( more )

Ho Au Ho

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 16:11
mole (currency strength - U.S. dollar and other musings) ID#350145:
Copyright © 1998 mole/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Relative currency strength is determined by many variables. I think the euro may be competition for the dollar because the euro may have slightly more strength variables than the dollar. January may be a good month for gold stocks because of weakened dollar ergo stronger gold and post tax loss selling. I would not be surprised to see gold go through $300 and silver really looks like it wants to go through $5.00. Might there not have been tax loss selling for gold and silver? One could sure see the tax loss selling in the mining stocks. My intuitive barometer is sure positive for January. We shall soon see. Merry Christmas to all. mole.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 15:59
NTEOTWAWKI (@Skeptic) ID#390337:
EcoGore = More Pollution Control via Pushing for ratification of Kyoto Protocol.
Reduction of unburned hydrocarbons in all unregulated diesel engines easy first target.
Implementation of Pt, Pd & Rh catalysts a given.
Rest of PMs go for the PPM ride.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 15:27
Skeptic (If the impeachment vote in the Senate was a tie and Algore was the tiebreaker) ID#280110:
would he: vote the party line and eliminate his chance to be president, vote for impeachment and maintain his Mr.Clean image excluding Monkgate,
which would also allow him to be president,or abstain claiming a conflict of interest? What impact would this have on the price of gold and the stock market? Character does count. It would be interesting to see the reaction of the Democrat Party if he did vote for impeachment. Merry Christmas everyone. Ho, Ho, Ho!

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 15:19
mole (correction 1sc not Irs - you can tell where my head is at ) ID#350145:
Should check my other facts as well. Sorry 1sc, honest mistake.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 15:03
mole (re Irs's 10:46 post re gold takeover's - I agree - below best gamble 99) ID#350145:
Copyright © 1998 mole/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A little known fact is that Vengold ( mentioned above ) has wts good until June 13, 2,000 ( T.ven.wt.a or b ) Strike $1.30 for B wts and $2.35 for A wts. 1 for 1 ( caution-wts can expire worthless ) . PD bought $46 million worth of stock at $1.75 summer of 98. Vengold holds about 20% of lihir ( 40 mil oz - I think ) . I have been buying for 3 months. Any rise in gold above $300 should blow the stock through strike for B wts. It's a gamble, but great leverage. I hope the gold carry theory is corrrect, but if not, I still believe the falling dollar is pretty likely based on euro and huge trade deficit which should cause a corresponding rise in gold. Gold at all time low and dollar very high - good bet for 99. Hope this info turns out to be a good christmas present for someone. I finished buying fri - picked up my last batch of B wts at .15 - my Christmas present. good luck - mole

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 14:59
Gollum (Over the crest) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The top of the hill is a good time to make sure one's seat belt is fastened on any typical roller coaster ride.

The irrational exuberance in the equities markets is primarily fueled by the cash in the hands of mutual funds, but they are running low on fuel:

http://www.marketgauge.com/charts/cmfcash.htm

It looks like we may be just on the verge of the next leg down:

http://www.marketgauge.com/charts/cmacd.htm

Got seat belts?

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 14:55
Silas_Marner (Merry Christmas) ID#285430:
Warm wishes from Silas & friends down in sunny Florida.

~Silas~

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 14:29
sam (Happy Holidaze) ID#288140:
May your down days be few and your up days be many.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 14:10
haulpak (NEM: Both the predator and the prey....) ID#402183:
It will be a year or two before cash flow from Batu Hijau ( and a slow down of capital spending there! ) will permit Newmont to go back on the acquisition warpath. In the meanwhile I see them as potential prey for Anglogold....

IMHO!

Haulpak

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 14:09
Goldteck (Excess Capacity Slowing Japan's Recovery) ID#431200:
( Excellent article ) WAKAYAMA, Japan—The mystery of why Japan's economy continues to sink, despite a series of costly government rescue attempts, can be explained here in this seaside town south of Osaka.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-12/25/112l-122598-idx.html

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 13:55
Squirrel (What of the new dollar coin?) ID#290118:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Comments requested on proposed designs by Dec. 28th. at
http://www.usmint.gov/dollarcoin/finalist_home.cfm
Personally I like the young Native American Sacagawea portrayed in relief in #97 - she portrays hope and vision rather than a back turned toward us. The religous could see her as looking up to the great spirit.
The soaring Eagle in #35 best portrays freedom and perhaps air power.
#15 is beautful but the message of freedom is not as strong as #35.

Too bad we won't see this coin until late 1999 or 2000. Too late.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 13:45
gagnrad (The key to the whole bizzness) ID#43460:
John Disney summed it up when he said it. Being an intuitive response from a man used to crunching numbers he may have missed the significance. IMHO of course. I suspect that the gold carry market is but a fraction of the size of the yen carry however .. I dont think
it is big enough to replace it

I think that may be the key to $2000 or even $5000 gold if ever there is one. Ain't enough to go around, unless we are going on the Furby Standard instead. IMHO

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 13:28
tolerant1 (to Micki...before beauty was birthed...aye...priror to the concept...when HE sent the ) ID#20359:
Angels out to look...when they returned...the crunch of their feet on the snow shattered all the windows...the full weight of their understanding...all that is you was what God saw...He then gave the rest of us a word representative of what His eyes beheld...

Merry Christmas...to YOU...from the Island that is Long...

This Glass is raised in Your HONOR...

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 12:41
Goldilocks (Welcome lsc and for sure you'll be accepted by us crazies.) ID#430221:
Many thanks for the information also - much appreciated.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 12:23
Tantalus Rex (Merry Christmas to all) ID#295111:
!

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 12:19
Cage Rattler (The breaking world crisis) ID#33182:
The next +/- 6 weeks is forecast to be critical ... scroll down about 8 paragraphs to section 1.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 11:35
quion97 (TVX) ID#176235:
Since the fall of 97 shares of TVX have dropped 67% the convertibles have also fallen 40%. An interesting situation convertibles since November 6 1998 have increased 13% although the price of shares keeps dropping. Have a Joyeux Noel.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 11:34
PCM (Speed: re Abelson excerpt on dollar & euro. Japane's bonds, too) ID#169332:
Copyright © 1998 PCM/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
offer an alternative to the US Treasuries.

Who will take 'em? Japan has the bonds, no buyers
By Andrew Morse

TOKYO, Dec 23 ( Reuters ) - Who's going to buy 'em?

That's the question the Japanese government bond market, currently the second-largest in the world, wants answered.

Traders are so nervous about the deluge of debt -- the government plans to issue a massive 61 trillion yen ( $525 billion ) in bonds to the market in fiscal 1999 -- that long-term bond yields have risen nearly 60 basis points in two days, and more than doubled to 1.90 percent over the
past two months.

Why interest rates have risen is no mystery.

In what is seen as a snit with politicians, the Finance Ministry said on Tuesday its trust fund bureau will no longer absorb the extra bonds the government prints to pay for stimulus packages to spend Japan out of its worst post-war recession. The ministry's purchases of government
bonds had in effect paid for the country's own bail out, keeping interest rates low while providing funds.

Not any more. Worried about runaway debt that has already cost Japan its AAA rating from Moody's Investors Service, finance mandarins...
politicians they needed to find someone else to pay for their profligacy.

The problem is, no one seems willing to step up with an open checkbook.

Banks have already indicated they won't buy them, selling bonds heavily over the past two days.
Although fixed-income portfolios have been one of the few bright spots on their otherwise dismal balance sheets, rising yields are beginning to erode the capital gains they've made on their holdings.

Individuals, who hold close to $10 trillion in personal savings, may pick up some of the extra paper. After all, 1.9 percent seems a lot better than 0.1 percent they can get on regular deposits at the bank.

But economists say that sooner or later the Japanese government is going to have to make the parochial JGB market more accessible to foreign investors, turning it into an Asian equivalent of the massive U.S. Treasury market.

**[Economists estimate that as much as 50 percent of the Treasury market, including short-term debt, is owned by foreign interests. By contrast, less than ten percent of Japan's debt is held abroad.]**

``It may take five years or so,'' said Soichi Okuda, senior economist at Nippon Credit Bank. ``But foreign money is going to have to play a larger role.''


**[Already, the government has taken steps to make the market more attractive to overseas
participants, who can always take their money to the U.S. market -- the world's most liquid and creditworthy.

On Tuesday, the Ministry of Finance said it would reform the method in which it issues financing bills, selling more directly to the market. It would also induce foreigners by scrapping withholding taxes on interest income for non-residents and exempting all holders of Treasury
bills and FBs from withholding taxes on bond profits.]**

While the moves were welcomed by the market, economists said they may no be enough to salvage bonds, which in January will have to compete not only with Treasuries, but also with the new Euro bond market opening up on January 1.

They say with higher rates available abroad, foreigners might be making a mistake to park their money in Japan, where a currency risk could prove more dangerous and yields -- despite the recent rise -- remain low.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yields 4.7 percent, compared to the 10-year JGB's 1.770.

``Exemption of the withholding tax on profits earned at redemption of financing and treasury bills could be a factor to lure foreingers to invest more in JGBs, but it's not enough,'' said Takeshi
Naito, senior market economist at Daiwa Securities. ``It all depends on coupon rates.''

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 11:28
MoReGoLd (@nation's 17 biggest banks were in much worse shape than the banks themselves had estimated.) ID#348286:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...Can we draw a parallel between Japan now, and the US in the near future? --- Why would the same situation not arise if the US stock bubble were to suddenly collapse?
( Stocks are only worth what the next person will pay for them. ) Will there be buyers of Amazon.Com to perpetuity?...


December 25, 1998
Japan watchdog unveils bank inspection results

 TOKYO, Dec 25 ( Reuters ) - Japan's financial watchdog, the Financial Supervisory Agency ( FSA ) , said on Friday the nation's 17 biggest banks were in much worse shape than the banks themselves had estimated.
  The agency's long-awaited results of its inspections of the 17 banks showed that their problem and questionable loans totalled 49.49 trillion yen ( $426.6 billion ) as of the end of March, against the banks' own assessments of 44.08 trillion yen, a difference of 5.41 trillion yen.
  The 17 banks posted 7.56 trillion yen in loan-loss charges as of the end of March, but inspections showed they needed to post 8.60 trillion yen, an FSA official told reporters.
  The agency also found the banks' assessments of their loan portfolios as of the end of March diverged from its findings, as errors in classification were found at all of the banks, the official said.
  The announcement confirmed suspicions in financial markets that Japanese banks had been loose in assessing bad loans and poorly prepared for potential risks of questionable loans.
  Two primary discrepancies were uncovered by recent FSA inspections, said James Fiorillo, an analyst at ING Baring Securities ( Japan ) . Assets had been misclassified and the level of reserves was inadequate, he said.
  Banks classify loans into four categories: Class One are healthy loans; Class Two are those where the creditworthiness of borrowers raises concerns that recovery may be more difficult than in ordinary obligations; Class Three are those to firms with management difficulties but in no immediate danger of bankruptcy; and Class Four are unrecoverable loans.
  The results of the inspections have drawn close attention both domestically and overseas because of Japanese banks' lack of disclosure of their exposure to problem loans.
  Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi has repeatedly promised to tackle bad loan problems weighing on the banking sector -- a root cause of the nation's long recession.
  The FSA's inspections have already found two major banks to be insolvent -- Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan ( LTCB ) and Nippon Credit Bank ( NCB ) -- and the government placed them under temporary state control in October and December.
  The agency said it found problem and questionable loans at LTCB and NCB totalled 7.86 trillion yen as of the end of March. But according to the two banks' own assessments, such loans stood at only 5.99 trillion yen, a difference of 1.87 trillion yen. The two banks needed to post 832.3 billion yen more in loan-loss charges as of the end of March, the agency said.
  Some analysts said the announcement of the inspection results would add pressure on some big banks to obtain as much public money as possible to write off their bad loans.
  Masamitsu Ohki, an analyst at Societe Generale Securities ( North Pacific ) in Tokyo, said major banks had already factored in the FSA's inspection results in their problem loan disposal plans for the latter half of the business year ending next March.
  In November, 12 of the 17 banks said they would sustain parent current losses this business year to post a total of about seven trillion yen of loan-loss charges for the year, much higher than some 1.8 trillion yen they had originally planned.
  With confidence in Japanese banks and their regulators deteriorating, investors are unlikely to be convinced that the FSA's findings reveal the true picture of the banking sector.
  U.S. rating agency Standard & Poor's said this week Japan's financial institutions now sit on gross problem loans of 140 trillion yen, much higher than 87.5 trillion yen calculated under their self-assessmentS as of the end of March, and such loans could worsen if more firms go under in the current recession.
  ( $1-116 yen )

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 11:26
tolerant1 (lsc, namaste'...gulp and a puff to you and yours...Welcome...) ID#20359:
don't be afraid as the door shuts behind you...it is only me...that sound you hear is the rust falling off me as they don't leave the cage door open often...

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 11:26
EJ (You heard it here first) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Global Economic Meltdown Part II begins June 1999.

The trick that turned the tide of stagflation in the 1980s and made the 1990s low-inflation, high employment economy possible was to turn the US into the tax haven for the world's rich. Purchase of US debt funded economic expansion and the development of technologies that increase productivity. These technologies also increase overcapacity, producing deflationary effects. By mid-year, tension from competing pressures on rates will lead to a new crisis: Fed must lower rates to keep the US economy from slowing too quickly and Fed must raise rates to slow euro currency reserve diversification by Asia and Europe away from dollars. The Fed will choose in favor of protecting the economy over the dollar by lowering rates. A weakening dollar will fuel a bear market in stocks. The real economy will be hit with a negative wealth effect, further accelerating the slowing of the US economy, leading to a unvirtuous cycle.

Trigger for the crisis comes from surprise location: US corporate debt. More later.

Merry Christmas to all.

-EJ


Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 11:24
Selby (Greenstone ) ID#286230:
Copyright © 1998 Selby/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved


Greenstone Resources Ltd -
Greenstone raises $13.4-million
Greenstone Resources Ltd GRE
Shares issued 63,648,524 1998-12-23 close $1.3
Monday Dec 28 1998
Mr.James Anthony reports
Greenstone has reached agreement in principle with its bankers to relax the terms of its
revolving credit facility and increase the cash available to the company by $5-million
( U.S. ) , subject to the normal borrow base calculation. The company has also entered
into an underwriting agreement with Nesbitt Burns Inc. for $8.4-million ( U.S. ) consisting
of 10.8 million common shares at a price of $1.20 ( Canadian ) per share.
Greenstone's bankers have agreed to waive the 1998 production test in the loan
agreement. Failure to meet this test would have made the loan due and payable on Jan.
28, 1999. Following a due diligence review of Greenstone's key projects by an
international minerals consulting firm, the banking syndicate has agreed to revert to the
original maturity date of July 28, 2000 which is reviewed annually based on production.
Greenstone's bankers have also agreed to remove a condition requiring the company to
maintain cash balances and/or unused credit under the revolver totalling $5.0-million
( U.S. ) . As consideration for this waiver, Greenstone has agreed to cap the revolving
credit facility at $18.663-million and increase the interest rate by 0.50 per cent.
Greenstone is obligated to raise a minimum of $7-million ( U.S. ) in equity. Completion of
the $8.4-million ( U.S. ) equity financing will satisfy this condition. Closing of the equity
financing is expected on or about Jan. 7, 1999 including clearing a short-term
prospectus. Greenstone has granted Nesbitt Burns an option, exercisable at $1.20
( Canadian ) per share for a period of 30 days following the closing of this offering, to
purchase up to an additional 1,620,000 common shares to cover over-allotments, if
any.
These steps will provide Greenstone with the capital to complete the strategic review
process that is underway and the mine commissionings at Cerro Mojon and San
Andres.
On Dec. 1, 1998 Greenstone had retained Nesbitt Burns as advisors to assist the
company in identifying and evaluating alternatives to enhance shareholder value. Mr.
Fronk said that the additional financing will provide the financial flexibility to continue
with the strategic review process which is proceeding under the supervision of a special
committee of the Greenstone board. The underwriters have the right to replace two
directors with nominees who would also be appointed to the special committee.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 11:15
PCM (yellowcab: Ashanti (ASL) added value to it's shares?) ID#169332:
When Ashanti closed their hedge ( $56 mil. profit, ) the shares rose a hollar, to 9 or so ( have since backed off ) . They recently got very favorable financing from London, which indicates to me they are more highly regarded than many S. Africans. I don't think they cheapened value of their shares; and don't know of any takeover interest in them?
--PCM

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 11:09
Speed (Barron's Alan Abelson ) ID#29048:
-
Excerpted

But there's nothing fixed about the supremacy of the dollar. And indeed, the newly minted euro in the fullness of time may pose a credible challenge to that supremacy. More immediately, the euro already has cost the greenback a bit of its luster. According to the knowledgeable LDC Bond Watch, with the advent of the euro, the goliath Japanese life insurers and other Nipponese institutions are moving to change the mix of their foreign investments from the current 70% dollar --30% European to an even split between the two.

So far, the dollar's slippage has been very mannerly. Should it ever increase in intensity, however, the decline might easily begin to set off alarms in our financial markets, since a weakening dollar might put a halter on the Fed's ability to continue to blithely cut rates and pump up the money supply.

The entire article can be found at BARRON'S which charges a small subscription fee.

The U.S. dollar is going to weaken and this is bullish for commodities which have begun to rally already. Next week the bottom fishing in beaten down energy and mining stocks begins. MERRY CHRISTMAS GOLDBUGS!

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 10:46
lsc (gold) ID#278287:
Copyright © 1998 lsc/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
To all goldbugs,
The January issue of The Gold Stk Analyst says that 1999 will be the year
of gold co. consolidation.Like the oil cos,autos, banking and telecom the gold industry will continue to merge.
The Hunters.1]ABX 2]NEM 3]HM 4]PDG
The PREY.1] TVX 2]GRENNSTONE 3]LIHIR AND VENGOLD 4}CANYON 5} another bid for GETCHELL.TO a somewhat lesser extent GOLDCORP,CROWN and SUTTON.As for the prey the first five are a 100% certainty.According to The Bloomberg News service TVX has 9 Majors interested.In fairness to all
I am a stockholder in DROOY and TVX.
Merry Christmas to all of you.
PS I am new to this post and hope that I am acceted by you {fondly}
crazies.









Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 10:26
tolerant1 (cherokee, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya from the Island that is Long...) ID#20359:
Merry Christmas to ya and yours...gnome flesh is tasty...and I thought they only made cheese...yummy...yup...uh huh...

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 10:24
yellowcab (merry Christmas. Ashanti buys a present for itself.) ID#18355:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/981224/ashanti_go_1.html

i think ashanti just closed out a hedge, and they now buy a few cheap shares. ashanti is cleaning up -- could be a takeover candidate.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 10:19
cherokee (@......peace.on.earth...........----last.one.btw.) ID#343449:

gold......

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha70.gif

may the manipulators feel the wrath of chris cringle...

MERRY CHRISTMAS........and chop-asaki.

cherokee!;....stoking.the.hearth.heartily.....

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 10:14
tolerant1 (the last time I put my foot down an earthquake hit the stadium...yup...) ID#20359:
the Swiss Government and Central bank is/are garbage...gold sales my Island that is Long butt...eating gnomes on the Island...tasty morsels on Christmas day...mmmmmmmmmmmMMMMMMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmm...good...

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 10:09
Gazebo (Your money ahead.......if you put your gold investment money in a bank .) ID#432298:
Yes, you would be money ahead in the coming year if you put your gold investment money in the bank rather than in paper or physical gold. I will consider reinvesting in late '99 in preporation for the new millinium. Until then...... BE CAREFUL!! For the millinium....GO GOLD!!


Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 10:01
Sovereign (Prediction.... No move on gold until major producers close-out hedge books) ID#275201:
Happy Christmas every one of you.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 09:48
Mtn Bear (SE) (Happy Holidays) ID#347321:
To Kitco and All:
From a seldom poster and a longtime lurker, the best of the season. Must admit I am now only 5% in gold ( longtime CEF and just bought FCX for the Copper Gold combination potential ) . This site added something to my life earlier this year, particularly Sharefin and his poetry; for that I am grateful. Have a safe, happy and prosperous New Year!

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 09:46
Bill El Zebub (Repost...Heard on TV an FNN talking head said the *whisper* word on the) ID#261352:
the street in New York was GOLD. Asked for comments from her guest. He
gave standard inflation/gold retort. I think something is starting.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 09:45
Donald (Weak year for exports ahead; company after company will be announcing layoffs) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981224/mh.html

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 09:39
Donald (A bleak Christmas for the A$ and goldbugs. (Swiss comment not accurate I hope)) ID#26793:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au:80/finance/4210621.htm

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 09:34
Gazebo ('99 another year like '98 for gold....) ID#432298:
Nothing will change in the coming year that would positively effect the price of gold that we at Kitco have been longing for. Gold is a political metal and will be held at bay for as long as possible. Fortunes are to be made elsewhere and not in precious..? metals like gold. Maybe in the new millinium.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 08:43
tolerant1 (sharefin, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...) ID#20359:
May you live Forever...and the last voice you hear be that of A Loved One...

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 08:24
John Disney (more ramblin.. on lease rate) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
for rhody ..
My problem is with perceptions which you tossed into
the game by saying that people are anticipating the
yen to RISE against the $. ( that may be true but
WHY considering the interest rate differential ) ..
the same COULD apply to gold .. maybe it will go
up maybe not BUT IF the lease rate is LOW relative
to the US interest rate I would expect it to fall
.. and the same for the yen ..
there are a lot of things we could argue about ..
nominal rate or REAL rates adjusted for inflation..
.. but anyway .. the smaller the differential between
the gold lease rate and the us short term interest
rate .. I believe the less likely it would be for a
man to borrow gold sell it and put the dough in short
term instruments to make a few bucks .. his risk is
constant at best .. and his reward is decreasing ..
thus it seems to me that at constant short rates ..
increasing gold lease rates should favour a firmer
gold price ..
.. at constant gold lease rates .. softer short rates
should favour a firmer gold price ..
.... BUT the independent variable is neither lease
rate NOR short rate .. it is the spread between the
two..IMHO
... The question of a competing carry throws some
cr@p into the picture ..
... Please analyze these ideas with historical data,
program into quick basic and have it on our desks by the
end of the year ( only kiddin rhody )

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 08:11
tolerant1 (awakened this morn by an email...from a young Lady who is deaf...she wanted me to) ID#20359:
call my Great Niece and read her the Christmas greeting she had created...I be 270 some odd pounds of mush...Merry Christmas all...soaking up tears on the Island that is Long...

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 07:49
John Disney (tumblin tumbleweed and a ramblin post ..) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
for rhody ..
I understand .. my question cuts much deeper than
that..
The yen prime rate dropped from 1.62 to 1.5 a few
months back .. Im suggesting that you should superimpose
yen carry as in input to your study ..
if for example .. one is pretty sure that the yen
will crash and the $ be strong .. he lays off gold
and trashes the yen and the normal effect of a low interest
rate in Japan is amplified several fold.
however .. if the yen borrowing rate is perceived to
be likely to RISE .. that game is too risky to
continue playing and one must shift to gold carry..
I suspect that the gold carry market is but a fraction
of the size of the yen carry however .. I dont think
it is big enough to replace it ( ? my impression ) ..
... BUT all that you and I have said is qualitative in
nature ..
I would like to establish a mathmatical relationship
.. I think this area contains the key .. both for
setting the direction of currencies and that of gold ...
... another thought .. with the short US interest rate
at 5 % and the euro at 3 % and Japanese still lending
at 1.5 % .. tell me WHY daddy do we make the
assumption that the US $ will be WEAK.. I know its
a worthless scrap of paper .. but so is the euro ..
and the yen.. but it pays a higher interest rate
( in terms of worthless scraps of paper that is ) .


Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 07:42
Donald (Bema news) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/981224/bema_gold__1.html

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 07:34
Donald (Inspection results show Japanese banks are in worse shape than previously reported.) ID#26793:
http://nt.excite.com/news/r/981225/05/business-banks

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 06:51
Gusto Oro (Envy 1:16 post...) ID#377235:
Beautiful as the falling snow!

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 06:03
tomo (Too all.) ID#372214:
Iunderstand that XAU held and then advanced.I think I was wright.So I get to post again.Thank You...

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 05:59
rhody (@ John Disney re your Dec 24 at 1:49 am. One month) ID#411440:
Copyright © 1998 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
gold leases are 1.72 and yen can be borrowed at 1.5%. Why not
borrow yen instead of gold for conversion into T-bills at 5%?
You are asking about the relative merits of the gold carry over
the yen carry. The difference is gold right now can be shorted
down safely, as Europe appears to be out of the market, while
the yen appears to be strengthing relative to the US dollar.
The rise in gold lease rates to 1.72% from about 1.5% has been
over the past few days, indicating that the funds think shorting
gold is safer than shorting yen. I must say, this is not saying
much for gold!

I think this is extremely dangerous for the funds. By shorting
gold, they are betting that the US dollar will rise. Every
sign points to the opposite happening. The US dollar will have
major competition in the world starting on Jan 4. If only
some USD are converted into EUROs, it cannot be positive for the
dollar. Dollar down, gold up, and the funds will have to cover.

I think both the yen carry and the gold carry are about to end.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 05:54
tomo (Too All.) ID#372214:
From what I understand...JESUS is GOD and LOVES all!!!!

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 04:50
mozel (@Santa Claus @Happy Holidays ) ID#153110:
Santa appeared as the patron saint of commerce at Christmastide at about the same time as the greenback. It is difficult to conceive now that there was a time when there was Christmas without Santa Claus. And there will be again.

Thanks for sharing the whole year through. Joy to your world.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 04:09
tomo (AURATOR) ID#372214:
The same as the last post only with a slight spelling error.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 04:02
tomo (@aurayor) ID#372214:
Peace be with you.Thanks for your support.God bless you and your family.MERRY CHRITSMAS!!!!!!!

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 02:28
Strad Master (Christmas Wishes) ID#250297:
ALL: To all Kitcoites who celebrate Christmas, may this be a special, blessed, and meaningful one!

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 01:16
Envy (Christmas Night) ID#219363:
virginia mountains

small town in the valley

street lights

ancient building of brick

downtown history

large window

view of the train station

cobblestone

ice and snow

sparkle on the shrubs

jack frost

peaceful crystals

fallen leaves

cold wind in dark forests

hidden paths

forgotten places

tree from a farmer

glass orbs

angels and stars

ribbon and crimson paper

warm comfortable bed

she sleeps

exhausted

holiday excitement

parties

early breakfast with juice

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 01:08
aurator (Merry Christmas~~~Peace to you all~~~and your families~~~~and friends~~PEACE on Earth~~~) ID#250122:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Merry Christmas one and all.

A gloriously hot Traditional Christmas day here. Spent by the pool,riding horses, eating cold meats and salads. Suntan lotion and insect repellant. {the sandflies hereabouts have teeth}

Several books received by the aurator...one The coming Residential Property Collapse in New Zealand is as interesting for the timing of its release as the content. Wondering when a book like this would appear.


And, in the trivia box May you live in interesting times is not and has never been a Chinese saying, curse or utterance of Confuscius.


Thank you Bart, for the site;
and to all who have generously shared their knowledge, wit and wisdom on the pages@sages.kitco

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 00:22
Squirrel (This Christmas morning what do we find under the tree) ID#287186:
KITCO and this great forum of great friends.
THANKS BART!

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 00:18
Mooney* (@Merry Christmas One and ALL!) ID#350194:
Copyright © 1998 Mooney*/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
ALL - Bulletin ( KNN ) Santa has just about wrapped up all his deliveries in his native territory and has been spotted by Norad finishing his northern deliveries near Niagra Falls, Ontario and it is suspected that he is about to cross the US/Canada International Boundry near Fort Erie on his way to Lackawana ( Reify ) and points south. It is rumoured that once again this year he will make a whirlwind tour of the Globe bringing joy to millions of chidren on every Continent; and that his final destination this year is the Middle East, where he hopes to once again instill some hope into the hearts of the despairing population.
And So This Is Christmas; I Wish You A Good One; One Without Any War - Without Any Fear! - John Lennon
Merry Mooney Christmas - ALL!

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 00:12
TheMissingLink (FOMC policy) ID#371380:
Copyright © 1998 TheMissingLink/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
November 17, 1998

A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, November 17, 1998, at 9:00 a.m.

-cut-

The downward trend in the utilization of capacity in manufacturing left the factory operating rate appreciably below its level of late last year.

-cut-

The staff forecast prepared for this meeting continued to point to considerable slowing in the expansion of economic activity to a pace appreciably below the estimated growth of the economy's potential, but the expansion was expected to pick up later to a rate more in line with that potential. Subdued expansion of foreign economic activity and the lagged effects of the earlier rise in the foreign exchange value of the dollar were expected to place considerable, albeit diminishing, restraint on the demand for U.S. exports for some period ahead and to lead to further substitution of imports for domestic products. Domestic production also would be held back for a time by the efforts of firms to bring inventories into better balance with the anticipated moderation in the trajectory of final sales. In addition, private final demand would be restrained a bit by the tighter terms and conditions that were now imposed by many types of lenders and by the anticipated waning of positive wealth effects stemming from earlier increases in equity prices. Pressures on labor resources were likely to ease somewhat as the expansion of economic activity moderated, but inflation was projected to rise considerably over the year ahead in association with a partial reversal of the decline in energy prices this year.

In the Committee's discussion of current and prospective economic developments, members observed that indications of some moderation in the pace of the economic expansion were still quite limited, but they generally agreed that the economy appeared to be headed toward slower growth. Relatively tight profit margins and less ebullient growth in wealth were among the factors expected to be damping investment and consumption. In addition, even apart from the possibility of further financial contagion in Latin America, the weakness in foreign economies continued to be seen as a persistent source of restraint on demand in a number of domestic sectors, notably manufacturing, agriculture, and some extractive businesses.

-cut-
Did the Federal Reserve just refer to the gold market as some extracive businesses?
-cut-
Indeed, even though the recent evidence relating to prices was somewhat mixed, several broad measures of prices suggested that inflation might be on a declining trend.
-cut-
Cant they just say the word, DEFLATION?
-cut-
In light of these developments, members believed that the continuing fragility of financial markets and the increased scrutiny of the credit quality of borrowers, though the latter was in some respects a welcome development, posed a considerable downside risk to the expansion. The very recent behavior of equity prices was difficult to explain satisfactorily, and potential movements in those prices posed risks on both sides of the most likely forecast: A future substantial increase would bolster wealth and spending, but a sharp decline also could not be ruled out--especially if, as seemed quite possible, added increases in prices were not supported by robust increases in profits.
-cut-
We dont like it but we now support moral hazard and the wealth effect with the full faith and credit of the Federal Reserve System.
-cut-
It seems that when the market was at 7600 a few months ago that Clinton was wishing for prosperity without the booms and busts of the business cycle. Strange, now that the market is back to new highs and internet investing resembles a lucky craps table, he is silent about wanting to temper the boom in the business cycle.

Date: Fri Dec 25 1998 00:11
Gusto Oro (Christmas Carol...) ID#430260:
Copyright © 1998 Gusto Oro All rights reserved
To: dean poets ( 805 )
From: Alan Whirlwind Friday, Dec 25 1998 12:08AM ET
Reply # of 806
Pinky's Tailing Box Christmas Eve Edition...

Yuletide at POGton Place...

Are you almost ready Jeeves? Our audience awaits.

Sorry Sir. Just placing a bit of coal by the fireplace for stage effect.

By the way, Jeeves, a Dickens' Christmas Carol presentaion at POGton
Place for our Kitco friends was a smashing idea!

Thank you Sir. Ah there, the curtain rises...

$

Good Sir, our president is in danger of losing his job to a scandalous
Senate trial. Could you spare a modest sum to help accommodate his legal
expenses?

Are there no workhouses? Are there no prisons?

But he'd rather lie, er...die than lose his job.

Then let him die, er...lie and use government vouchers to pay for it and
thereby decrease the current budget surplus.

$

Hello Bob. Where's my uncle?

Ah Fred. I'm afraid Mr. Screwed is out.

Well Bob, put some coal on the fire. I'm here to warm uncle Screwed up
way or another.

RING-A-LING

Cratchit! Why is it so warm in here?

I'm sorry Sir; I added more coke to the fire.

I'm sorry I didn't add more COKE to my portfolio.

Merry Christmas Uncle!

Bah! Goldbug!

$

Here's your paper Sir...

Agh! My Zappa Resources stock is selling at .08 a share.

Tax write-off selling Sir.

It's a poor excuse to pick a man's pocket every December 25th.

$

What's that rattling sound? I must be imagining things.

It's me Ubemiser--your partner in life Martin Armstrong.

Well, what do you want?

3.25 silver.

Bah! Goldbug! Why, you're probably nothing more than a bit of mustard, a
slice of beef, or a crumb of cheese--there's more of gravy than of grave
about you.

I'm 51% in PM's and 49% in the Dow.

My mistake. There's more of grave than of gravy about you. But you were
always a good man of business.

I own 10,000 shares of Dayton Mining.

You were always a stupid speculator.

Make ready for the three spirits...POOF!

$

SNORE...huh? Who are you? The light, it's blinding my eyes.

That's because I'm shortcovered with gold. Come.

But I am mortal, spirit--I'll fall headlong and be killed.

Would you rather be long the XAU?

I'd be killed worse...coming!

$

Why, it's my old schoolhouse. And there--my old girlfriend!

You could have taken stock in her--why didn't you marry her?

I did take stock in her but I learned never to marry a stock.

$

SNORE...huh? Another spirit!

This is Cratchit's favorite child, Shiny PM.

Poor Shiny PM.

Let him rather die and decrease the COMEX surplus.

You use my words against me spirit.

No, those are Martin Armstrong's words--a washout spike down to take out
the silver stockpiles.

Oh tell me spirit, will Shiny PM live?

If the present manipulations go unaltered, next Christmas I see a POG by
the hearth without a support level to hang on.

$

SNORE...huh? Oh Spirit, I fear you most of all. Tell me, are these the
shadows of things that will be, or may be? What? Maybe they will be? I
shall change my way of living! I shall never buy on the VSE again! Oh
give me another chance!

$

SNORE...huh? What? It's light out!

SCREETCH...

Boy! Yes you! What day is it today?

Why, it's Christmas Day Sir.

Do you own any shares of Royal Oak Mines?

No Sir.

A remarkable boy--an intelligent boy.

Sir?

Is that prize turkey still hanging in the corner shop window?

No Sir. It's Al Gore, er...all gone Sir. But the next shop down has one
even bigger.

Really? What do they call that turkey?

Commander-In-Chief, Sir.

Well go buy the Command-Her-In, Chief and I'll give you ten shillings.
Do it in 5 minutes and I'll give you half a crown.

$

Fred!

Who is this?

Your uncle Screwed.

Why, I didn't recognize you without your pockets stuffed with Zappa
warrants. Welcome to Christmas Dinner!

$

Cr-e-e-a-a-k!

Mr. Cratchit!

Yes Sir!

You're late.

I'm sorry Sir. I did make merry yesterday, it being Christmas. It's only
once a year. It won't happen again sir.

Well I won't stand for it! And therefore...therefore I'm going to give
you all my Zappa!

Thankyou Sir! I've always wanted enough money extra to buy some aluminum
cans.

$

A wonderful play Jeeves!

Thank you Sir. And, A Merry Christmas to you.

Merry Christmas Jeeves, and to all our Kitco friends. = )


 
 

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