KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 23:58
Jack () ID#254288:

Japanese Yen strong at 115.30 to the dollar. Last couple of days New Zealand's market been making solid gains; tonight its up about 1.98%.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 23:47
gagnrad (Sharefin, thoughts on the Kitco community) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You know if an outsider were to look at Kitco they'd say we were all blathering idiots to debate James Carville, social democracy, the y2k risks, the global deflation and Russian platinum supplies. But, I've been keeping tabs and it appears that we are actually an eclectic bunch, with a fair representation from many different jobs, professions, skills and backgrounds ( at least as many as could be represented by English speakers ) . So, despite our disagreements as to the potential risk or benefit from any specific market force it remains refreshing to be able to come in and look at what others think. Thankyou. ( Even though I'm not worried about y2k. )

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 23:44
gagnrad (Sharefin, thoughts on the Kitco community) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You know if an outsider were to look at Kitco they'd say we were all blathering idiots to debate James Carville, social democracy, the y2k risks, the global deflation and Russian platinum supplies. But, I've been keeping tabs and it appears that we are actually an eclectic bunch, with a fair representation from many different jobs, professions, skills and backgrounds ( at least as many as could be represented by English speakers ) . So, despite our disagreements as to the potential risk or benefit from any specific market force it remains refreshing to be able to come in and look at what others think. Thankyou. ( Even though I'm not worried about y2k. )

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 23:19
Skeptic (Spin, Lies, and Deception to win elections have payback when used in excess. ) ID#280110:
Copyright © 1998 Skeptic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The recent trend in politics to repeat a lie until people believe it may have had its roots in the campaign by Landslide Lyndon where the little girl holds the flower when the atomic bomb goes off implying that Barry Goldwater would start a war. Within a matter of months the Gulf of Tonkin incident was used as a pretext by Johnson to escalulate the Viet Nam War. A later example was when George McGovern proposed to give everyone $1,000 without explaining where it came from. If he had better understood the Federal Reserve System, he would have realized that banks creat dollars out of nothing and he would have proposed a plan where the people deposit $110 and the bank would then create the $1000 to be given to the people. A recent example was the 1996 election where the Democrats accused the Republicans of cutting Social Security when the cut was in the rate of increase and they demigoged this so much that the public did not understand the difference. Now Clinton is proposing to save Social Security when he demigoged the Republican plan to do so. The latest example is the alleged budget surplus. There can not be a budget surplus when the deficit is increasing by more than $100,000,000,000 per year as demonstrated on the National Debt page on the Internet which is updated daily. Either both parties are lying about this or they are too naive to recognize the distinction. The claim is made that inflation is under control without recognizing that the Federal Reserve has created additional money and that most of it has been funneled into the stock market. It is interesting to note that the increase in the money supply almost exactly tracks the increase in the value of the stock market. The public then believes that Clinton did something that caused the increase in the stock market and they love him for this and can see no wrong that he may have done. A recent Gallup poll discussion on the Michael Reagan site made the observation not widely reported that 90% of the people who had read the Starr Report favored impeachment. The bubble continues and Joe 6 pack thinks he is making 30% per year indefinitely. The bubble will pop and the crash will occur. The Y2k problem with embedded systems guarantees it. The only question is when but no later than January 2000. In 20 years History will not look kindly on the Clinton administration. It will be remembered that Clinton and Mr. Technology Gore were in charge when time was available to fix the computer problems and they did nothing. Senator Monihan of New York warned the President back in 1996 and he did nothing. Even simple things like establishing a common date standard such as 12-30-1998 were not done until early 1998. It is too late. The Federal payment system will crash, there will be no social security, Federal salary, medicaid payments etc and panic withdrawals of cash will bankrupt the banking system even if the power grid still works which is not a sure thing. An article by Gary North included in the post by Supernaut Sun Dec 20 1998 03:13 explains in detail why this will happen. This crash will make the 1929 Depression look like a recession due to the fact that the producing economy has been replaced by a service economy and there will be no demand for most of the professions with no payment system in place to let them function. Time magazine announced the man of the year to be Ken Starr and the President. A better choice would have been Gary North who tried to warn people as this would provide more visibility to his warnings. The press apparently does not understand Y2k issues or does not want the truth to get out before they can run the market up higher and get their money out before the crash. The spin, lies and deception will leave the little guy holding the worthless paper and will decimate the middle class.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 23:18
sharefin (TheMissingLink - coming soon to a town near you) ID#284255:
-
Year 1999 bug threat
http://webserv.vnunet.com/www_user/plsql/pkg_vnu_comp.top_ten?p_story_id=71995&l_to_date=23-DEC-98

Y2K Will Arrive Ahead of Schedule
http://www.intellectualcapital.com/issues/98/1203/icbusiness2.asp


IF Y2K IS NOT OKAY

If you switch on the lights and you're still in the dark,
If you turn on the stove and you don't get a spark,
If you turn on your faucet and it's dry as wheat,
If you open your freezer and find melted meat,
If you go to a store and find nothing to buy,
If you get to a gas pump and find it runs dry,
If you turn on your t.v. and get a blank screen,
If your music won't play and your washer won't clean,
If your phone is as dead as the Internet now,
If computers won't work any way, any how,
If the banks don't have money to let you withdraw,
If your wood pile is shrinking and nothing will thaw,
If there's nothing to eat but what sits on your shelf,
If there's hardly enough for your pets and your self,

What will you do with your family and friends?
Will there be new beginnings or frightening dead ends?
Will you contact your neighbors and hope they will share?
Will you hide in your terror, afraid they won't care?
( What will you do if they don't? )
What will you do without doctors and crops?
What will you do without firefighters, cops?
What will you do with the smell of your waste?
With your thirst and your hunger, your dreams now erased?
What will you do with the time on your hands
And the dirt and the quiet and the dark as it lands?
What will you do without booze or a pill
Or tobacco or sugar to strengthen your will?
What will you do to keep Life in the Light?
What is left? What went wrong? What was right is not right.

Will you kick yourself sideways for having ignored
All the warnings that came from the press or the Lord?

Will you have a replacement for things automatic
That require no power or is that too dramatic?
A can opener, oil lamps and hand tools will be
Very precious and useful and necessary.

Begin to take notice of what runs your days:
How do water and heat and t.v. come your way?
By the touch of a button or the flip of a switch
You can get all you want but there is one big hitch:

If the power that brings you such fabulous service
Cannot operate, it can make one quite nervous.
So, what if there isn't such power to buy?
Do we sit in the dark? Do we lay down and die?
( Some may, if they think to prepare is extreme,
If survival sounds crude, paranoid, some bad dream. )

To believe *they* won't fix the millennium bug
Is like sweeping America under a rug.
Technicians designed it. They know what to do.
( If it's not done in time, what will happen to you? )
Electronic everything: toys to transactions -
*They* won't let these stop: They are major attractions!

Yet each time we say, They will do this for us
We confess our dependence while denying the fuss.
We could work on awareness of modern-day living
And see all the power that to power we are giving.
We all have machines and equipment galore
For opening cans, mowing lawns, cleaning floors,
For watching and listening, communicating, too,
So, without that which runs these, what will we all do?

It's blasphemy not to have faith in the way
That America runs every hour every day.
Saying, That just won't happen to Y2k fears
Is something that everyone every day hears.
Yet what if it does and we're left on our own
Without light, heat or food, water, sewage or phone?

The government's telling you things may go wrong
for a while yet you smile and you're sure Not for long.
So you don't stock up water, you don't buy canned food,
And you don't plan for any change in life, but you could
Be prepared ( just a little if fear's in your way
Of what effort it takes, what the neighbors will say ) .
Seem foolish today or be foolish tomorrow
When left without Time you will beg, steal or borrow.

by Susan M. Kuhner, Ph.D.
December 1998


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 23:13
gagnrad (TheMissingLink, finished spruing the Arkansas Razorback today!) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Well, 'tis done. 20 grams of wax, plus 10 grams of sprue, for a total of 19 sprues and 2 risers ( probably overkill ) . This thing will be huge for jewelry, had to use my 4 inch casting flask! Will let you know how it turns out. The ancient Celts would have cast in 22k ( no, I'm using regular investment plaster, as auroch dung is hard to come by around here ) but I will be happy to use silver since it will weigh 6+ ounces when finished. Usually for something like this I'd use silicon bronze or brass, but anything to help the price of silver!

BTW, here is an URL for the parental firearms safety page most commonly recomended by the folks who know. Sorry for nagging. http://www.nra.org/rstar/rstarpgs.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 23:11
EJ (Free markets? Who needs free markets?) ID#45173:
Taiwan bolsters emergency stock fund's mandate

TAIPEI, Dec 21 ( Reuters ) - Taiwan's finance ministry said on Monday the state-led T$283 billion stock stabilisation fund would ``intensively'' and ``regularly'' buy stocks to help stabilise the stock market.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981220/en.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 23:07
JTF (Bottoms in gold - broad indeed!) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Reify: Any idea what the time scale is? Gold has been dropping for 20 years, and some of us gold bugs are a bit paranoid, if you know what I mean! Even now gold ( corrected for the US dollar value ) is dropping in value due to worldwide deflation. And, it is increasing in value relative to the commodity price index ( cry0 ) . On the other hand, it does indeed look like it is peeking out of its 2 year down channel. But we have little experience with big time deflationary periods, given their rarity -- every 60 years or so.

My real problem is that we will almost certainly to have another 'gold fire sale' if deflationary credit collapses occur yet again. Perhaps South America or Europe. If the credit collapse occurs in the US, the US dollar will plummet, and gold will do very nicely. Though we definitely will not like what else happens.

I feel that we are on the edge of a very nonlinear process. Sort of like playing with reality itself. The suspense is killing me, as they say!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 23:05
Caper (Tks gagnrad) ID#300202:
Got Snake Oil?

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:57
TheMissingLink (FEMA assessment of state and municipal emergency services Y2K readiness) ID#371380:
Copyright © 1998 TheMissingLink/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
http://www.fema.gov/y2k/rpt1216.htm

I have to believe that the coming panic is exactly the kind of systemic disaster which an investment in gold is best suited for. Gulf wars, mild recessions, and other things we pinned our hopes on for higher gold all happened within the framework of institutional stability. This will shake peoples faith in the system, as the system fails to serve them properly.

Banks, brokerages, and the financial system in general seem vulnerable to date related files. Inneficiencies introduced into our highly efficient movement of money, ( and hence an increase in certain risks which velocity hedged ) will in itself cause systemic problems absent a complete collapse in the system.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_236000/236206.stm

Even the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is saying that limited power failures are certain before and after 01-01-00. What difference is being compliant if your power goes off intermittantly. With just in time systems, a supplier being down for a few days can mean idling your own facility, which in turn may idle who you are supplying. Not a collapse but inneficiencies which are absent today, largely due to computers.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:56
John Disney (I always agree with Lefties) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
for various leftys
Yesterday I had a brief encounter with what I would
call left wing ( for lack of a better term ) thinking.
In a roundabout way, I was accused of lack of
compassion and of favoring a system of social
Darwinism.
Maybe that's right .. but whether I'm bad and
my antagonist is good .. because of that is a
matter of little concern to me.
My problem is mathmatical .. my accuser says that
everyone has a RIGHT to education and healthcare ( I
assume that means FREE ) ..
Now I dont agree with this at all ..since NOTHING
like this can be FREE. What the chap in question
must mean is that we must provide health and education
for those unable to pay for it. ( but for some reason
he doesnt want to say it like that )
So to prevent social darwinism .. lets accept that
we must take care of those less fortunate then ourselves.
Look at a typical unemployment rate .. take 10 per
cent .. so IF we have to provide the above goodies
for the disadvantaged members of society .. a levy
of 10 per cent on everyone else's income should do
it nicely ( oddly coincident with the religious concept
of a tithe ) . The remaining 90 % take care of themselves.
Having this administered by a self serving bunch
of politicians doesnt work however .. the levy winds
much higher than 10 per cent and the disadvantaged
dont get taken care of anyway.
I prefer having discussions that involve a few
numbers and avoid the idea that right wingers
are greedy and leftys are really generous guys ..
.. or the reverse .. that right wingers are men
of honour and lefties are hypocital phonies.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:55
tolerant1 (An interesting piece on Y2K...yup...uh huh...) ID#20359:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
But Snow's essay foretold the larger cause. Most people have no conception of science and technology, he wrote. The general public is tone-deaf, he continued, over an immense range of intellectual experience, [and as] with the tone-deaf, they don't know what they miss. So the technologists making the warnings could not really talk with their intended audience. The result is that whatever damage Y2K does, the wound will be mostly self-inflicted.

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-12/09/010l-120998-idx.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:52
gagnrad (Caper, one more URL re Carville bio) ID#43460:
http://www.washspkrs.com/speakers/j_carville/j_carvfr.htm

The best way to see what he is about is to go to th epublic library and check out one of his books:

And the Horse He Rode in On
We're Right, They're Wrong

Carville is a master of the demagogery, surpassing Al Sharpton and Rev Jackson. Possibly the best show since that young man kicked the police dog just before the newsy snapped his pic down in Birmingham back 30+ years ago.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:50
Caper (Tol1) ID#300202:
Ur Nando Link speaks loud/clear.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:36
Caper (Strat N'Tol-Prosit-will further explore!-tks) ID#300202:
He sure wud not blend in with our pip pip politicos. U guys know him.
Maybe just smoke n' mirrors today. Perhaps a pussy in real life. Course-ur Supreme Commander comes across as a wussy-sometimes!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:35
ptwoskool (Hold on-----) ID#225369:
Copyright © 1998 ptwoskool/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
just a little longer,gentlemen.Don't jump yet Farfel.The gold and silver bull comes closer and closer to the gate.

I have felt for a long time that our fourunes were dependent on the policies of the current administration.This administration is distracted and fragmented presently.

If the man can bomb Iraq ,he might very well release the bear on the market to show those who question his ability what a truly great president he has been.I have been betting against them for over 14 mos. now in a serious way and I have never been more convinced that something big this way comes for the faithful.Now, more than before,it could happen.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:32
CHUCK (conversations w/G JTF) ID#342315:
THANKS FOR POSTING YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE BOOKS I HAVE READ IT. AND WAS TRULY INSPIRED, GLAD TO HERE OTHERS BUGS MAY HAVE SIMILAR ASPIRATIONS..

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:30
tolerant1 (a breath of fresh air...someone who speaks in real terms...huh...flat out amazing...) ID#20359:
http://www.nando.net/opinions/story/0,1098,264-480-4978-0,00.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:21
Reify (Sorry for the oversight) ID#413109:
I can always plead aging......actually I do, often.
http://www.chartingyourfutures.com/dailyworksheets.htm

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:21
lady_bug (Squirrel) ID#310222:
( ( ( ( But I've only about 500 cans so far. ( tuna ) ) ) )
500 !! how many cans of tuna do you intend to eat per day ? and for how long? ( are you planing !? ) 1 year ? 2 years ? You think the power will be out that long? I guess I am missing the big picture, but even if I try to paint a small picture to my family, they think I am totally crazy ! ( still, even I have started to buy canned food now, ) and stacking wood up )
cheers
l_b

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:20
TheMissingLink (Y2K and gold) ID#371380:
Copyright © 1998 TheMissingLink/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
When do you all expect Y2K uncertainty to creep into the mainstream? I realize the average sheeple cannot remember what the newscycle was two months ago but I would fully expect that their ability to smell fear is very keen. When does the preparation of the early achievers start to cause the masses to question their own preparations?

When the calenders show 1999? Psychologically, 1998 is two years from the year 2000, 1999 is one. Jan 1999.

When long term storage staples become hard to find on store shelves? The news is sure picking up on this. May-July 1999.

When companies push back their estimates and meaning of compliance? That should happen soon as most companies expected to be fully compliant by 12/31/98. None have announced completion yet. Feb 1999.

Not until the first negative effects happen? June-Sept 1999.

Not until the full effects are upon us. 01-01-00

Steve

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:20
strat (Caper) ID#93241:
Copyright © 1998 strat/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
James Carville, long-time political consultant to Democratic Party, hailing from Louisiana ( which comprise one of the three foriegn entities incorporated into the U.S. Republic: California and District of Columbia being the other two ) . Carville does not have bad hair days. He has no-hair-days ( grass does not grow on rocks, yes? ) . Made his reputation helping to elect Clinton to the presidency in 1992. In 1994 ( ? ) , dropped out and married conservative political commentator, Mary ( that was his wife he was arguing with on Meet The Press this morning. He's amusing at best, a boor the rest of the time.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:19
Reify (Read the comment on the CRB chart) ID#413109:
I'm referring to the second CRB chart, and compare this and what
I said earlier, and maybe it'll make some sense to those that wish
further confirmation of the likelyhood of gold PMs going up, along
with other inflation hedges.
It's always nice when one has fundamental ideas and technichal
work that backs up these ideas, Yes?


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:19
tolerant1 (Caper, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...some links on Carville...) ID#20359:
http://www.salonmagazine.com/columnists/jcarville.html

http://msnbc.com/news/110648.asp

http://www.spectator.org/archives/97-08_york.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:15
Envy (Japan Stocks Fall at Mid-Session) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
TOKYO ( AP ) -- The U.S. dollar fell against the yen in Tokyo trading Monday morning after the U.S. House of Representatives voted over the weekend to impeach President Clinton. Japanese stocks fell. The dollar bought 115.20 yen as of late morning, even with its price late Friday in Tokyo but below its late New York level of 115.61 yen on Friday. The benchmark 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average shed 126.89 points, or 0.89 percent, to 14,067.40 by the end of morning trading. On Friday, the average closed up 67.30 points, or 0.48 percent. The U.S. House's move Saturday to impeach Clinton hurt confidence in Washington's ability to demonstrate leadership, especially as the world economy reels from crises in Asia and Russia. The overall dollar sentiment is bearish. There is still caution about Clinton's impeachment, said Hajime Sato, assistant general manager of the treasury department at Daiwa International Trust bank. Hours after the House vote, Clinton rejected calls for his resignation and vowed to remain in office until he completes his four-year term in 2000. His case has been sent to the U.S. Senate for trial. On the stock market, share prices fell following weakness in the dollar and concerns about rising interest rates as the Japanese government moves to issue more bonds to help pay for a record budget deficit.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1y.htm

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:05
Caper (CARVILLE) ID#300202:
I only watch Cdn T.V. Heard of Carville before but saw him for the first time tonight. This guy is scary lookin'-unless he just had a bad hair day. Anyone care to provide me with a mini background and or url or should I do a NWO search. Precis appreciated.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:01
Reify (Envy your Dow inverted chart) ID#413109:
Copyright © 1998 Reify/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
was interesting, but it may give the observer the wrong
picture, or at least idea. You see there's a strong possibility
that we're going higher and maybe making, what many have liked
to see in every chart ( why I'll never know ) the head of a head and
shoulder pattern. This could mean the Dow goes to say 10-12K, along
with the other averages, and then dives quite sharply and then tests
which would then make the other shoulder some time next year.

Guess I'm a little foolish for looking into the long range future
but prophesizing can be fun, especially when the weather kills the
golf, and one thinks of markets instead of y2k.

BTW gold and PMs are, IMHO, going north from here. Why--- well I've
already said it last week the base is similar, very much similar,
to other gold bases. A large formation and about 1/2 in a smaller
formation, like the one made in '82, and '89 bottoms, and several
others as well. It seems to be the way gold bottoms are formed over
a period of several weeks or months. Since this is a sizable bottom,
enjoy the pun, we could see a move of some size as well...

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 22:00
Reify (Envy your Dow inverted chart) ID#413109:
Copyright © 1998 Reify/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
was interesting, but it may give the observer the wrong
picture, or at least idea. You see there's a strong possibility
that we're going higher and maybe making, what many have liked
to see in every chart ( why I'll never know ) the head of a head and
shoulder pattern. This could mean the Dow goes to say 10-12K, along
with the other averages, and then dives quite sharply and then tests
which would then make the other shoulder some time next year.

Guess I'm a little foolish for looking into the long range future
but prophesizing can be fun, especially when the weather kills the
golf, and one thinks of markets instead of y2k.

BTW gold and PMs are, IMHO, going north from here. Why--- well I've
already said it last week the base is similar, very much similar,
to other gold bases. A large formation and about 1/2 in a smaller
formation, like the one made in '82, and '89 bottoms, and several
others as well. It seems to be the way gold bottoms are formed over
a period of several weeks or months. Since this is a sizable bottom,
enjoy the pun, we could see a move of some size as well...

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 21:49
camster (Dr suess) ID#159112:
To who ever posted the dr suess spill, that was great im still laughing you gold bugs are great please let the author no : )
go gold you can't stay minipulated for ever

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 21:47
JTF (Inversion) ID#254321:
Envy: When was the last time you saw your Opthalmologist? It does look like the inverted DOW is about to 'rally' I must admit. I think you will find the German DAX most interesting ( either way up ) if the average German investor realizes what it means for the corporate tax rate to go from 28% to 50% on Jan 1, 1999. Perhaps y2k is coming a year early in Germany.


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 21:42
tolerant1 (here is the UTNE Reader Y2K Booklet I mentioned, it is on the net...) ID#20359:
http://www.utne.com/y2k/

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 21:41
JTF (Logging off!) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Tortfeasor,Duke: Have you both read the books :

'Conversations with God' parts I,II,II? Apparently it is now a worldwide best seller, translated into 24 languages.

Fascinating reading. The bottom line is that what really matters is what you do for others, as we are all part of the same 'world of souls'. 'Unconditional love' is the ideal. Not sexual love like the president. But rather more like what Buddha, Ghandi and Christ believed in. And -- none of the World's religions really tell us completely what it is all about, because all have been altered by time and the human hand. But -- we do get a strong clue by comparing what is best/common to all of the world's great religions. The golden rule, for example, or the idea that family is not really limited to blood relatives. 'Family' is all sentient beings.

Hard for me to remember during the trials and tribulations of daily life. I try to get along with everyone. I will do my best -- especially over the Holidays.

Happy Holidays, everyone!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 21:39
Envy (@EJ) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Check this one out, it's awesome. Even though the DOW bear chart looks pretty ugly and appears to be headed for new lows, the DOW bear Transportation chart is looking fairly strong. Not only did it rally this summer, but it hasn't followed the DJIA bear down like it usually does, it's disconnected. The forces of chaos and flux seem to have a pretty good hold on the Transportion bear, maybe the DOW bear will rally with it ? I'm thinking either the Transportation bear has to fall across the chasm, or the DOW bear has to rally. It's so hard to call a bottom. This recent rally could just be long covering.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 21:36
gagnrad (2BR02B? , glad you liked the URLs.) ID#43460:
It was just serendipity that the news would turn to propagandist fearmongering and ranting after I posted the propaganda analysis sites today. I had retired to the garage and spent a few hours spruing some waxes for investment casting next week so missed it all, doing my part for silver consumption and all that. I guess we should buy Mr. Carville a nice warm brown shirt for his present.

It is confusing isn't it that Carville would carry more of an Hitlarian style and Clinton more hale and hearty like Mussolini?

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 21:13
EJ (Envy) ID#45173:
You're playing with my head, Envy. That ain't no DOW chart, that's a gold chart. Sheesh.
-EJ

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 21:13
JTF (Operation Desert Fox a success?) ID#254321:
All: If operation Desert Fox is a success, why did the Pentagon say that only 18/89 targets are significantly damaged?

http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/mideast/121998iraq-rdp.html

How odd! I guess someone in the Pentagon forgot to read their script from the WhiteHouse. I still think WJC is no match for Saddam -- long term. And -- what happens the next time we determine Saddam is about to lob something deadly? Even England may not support us then.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 21:11
Tortfeasor (Duke) ID#37463:
Those are golden thoughts you express there. Its really what we give adn not what we receive which brings us the happiness we all seek.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 21:01
JTF (EURO launch: A Riddle within an enigma) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
SDRer: I think we are agreeing. There are two power groups in Europe -- the ones currently in power who are up to their eyeballs in debt/entitlements -- even more than we are. Since they cannot resolve their problems, they are doing the same thing the countries that the IMF is bailing out are doing: Raise taxes,etc., instead of really resolving the problems at the grass roots. Human nature ( it seems ) is not to repair the corrupt/decrepid existing economic system until it collapses completely. Japan seems to be an exception probably because of their wealth. So far.

The second group I assume is the BIS and the 'old money' -- currently out of power in Europe. England ( the Bank of England ) is straddling the fence between these two groups -- currently swinging closer to Germany -- I gather, given what they are doing to restrict the offshore havens and the Hedge funds.

If the EURO falters, the 'old money'/BIS group will bail the socialists/bureaucrats out -- for a price. And -- the EURO becomes backed by gold. However, this will not happen until we have a crisis much worse than the 1993 crisis, IMHO.

Where is the US in all of this? Possibly on the sidelines -- all depends on whether we have a separate crisis of our own. Could be bullish for the US dollar.

I must admit -- looking through the crystal ball to see which way gold will go is getting harder and harder. Really risky business to invest in gold equities when another deflationary crash is likely. Intuitively I would guess at least not for a few months, given the way the US markets are going. Up -- not down. So -- gold/gold equities may experience a minor rally -- but not much given that both US and European CB's will be watching gold bullion with eagle eyes during the first few months of the EURO launch. It's not easy to invest in a political metal. And -- if gold bullion plummets or skyrockets right now, it means the CB's have lost control. I think I would be in only short term in that situation, as that would be very serious indeed -- for the worldwide markets.

Got real paper money?

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 21:00
Duke (True Meanings........... Merry Christmas To All) ID#267255:
-
Dear Santa

Snowflakes softly falling
Upon your window play,
Your blankets snug around you,
into sleep you drift away.

I bend to gently kiss you,
when I see that on the floor
There's a letter, neatly written
I wonder who it's for.

I quietly unfold it
making sure your still asleep,
It's a Christmas list for Santa.....
one my heart will always keep.

It started just as always
with toys seen on TV,
A new watch for your father
and a winter coat for me.

But as my eyes read on
I could see that deep inside
There were many things you wished for
that your loving heart would hide.

You asked if your friend Molly
could have another dad;
It seems her father hits her,
and it makes you very sad.
Then you asked dear Santa,
if the neighbors down the street
Could find a job, that he might have
some food, and clothes, and heat.

You saw a family on the news
whose house had blown away;
Dear Santa, send them just one thing:
a place where they can stay.

And Santa, those four cookies that
I left you for a treat,
Could you take them to the children
who have nothing else to eat?

'Do you know that little bear I have....
the one I love so dear?
I'm leaving it for you to take
to Africa this year.
And as you fly your reindeer
on this night of Jesus' birth,
Could your magic bring to everyone
goodwill and peace on earth?

There's one last thing before you go..
so grateful I would be
If you'd smile at Baby Jesus
in the manger by our tree.

I pulled the letter close to me;
I felt it melt my heart.
Those tiny hands had written
what no other could impart.

And a little child shall lead them,
was whispered in my ear
As I watched you sleep on Christmas Eve
while Santa Clause was here.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 20:52
SDRer (Donald--They set-up for a very advantageous gold buy!) ID#93135:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Donald-yr: 7/31/98 Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa further weakened the yen…

Interesting that THAT JUST HAPPENED to be one of those happy times when
USD:JPY - 144.xx

And
Friday, July 31, 1998
1 Gold ( oz. ) = 41,668.0 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen ( JPY ) = 0.00002400 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU )

contrast with….

On Tuesday, May 13, 1997: AU:¥ was 41,513.1

USD:¥ = 0.008394, ¥:USD=119.1300 ~ Yen worth more against the USD, right?
POG:USD was 348.1672
PPP:¥ was 348.1672

¥ POG 41478.1

There are a NUMBER of ways to manipulate markets!
CRAZY LIKE A FOX!


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 20:49
Envy (Equity Bear) ID#219363:
Will the equity bear graph finally start moving up, has the bear's bear ( bull ) went back to his pasture, or will we break lower still ? I think if this graph falls much further, it'll fall like a rock before it finally hits bottom. This thing is going to take off like a rocket when it finally takes off, you can see just this summer it tried to rally. Nothing falls forever.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 20:32
Envy (Japan) ID#219363:
Continues down, shooting for that ole 14K level again. Short term bottom is at about 12 3/4K or something close. Go Japan, Go. Talk about a trend you wouldn't want to bet against.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=t

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 20:25
STUDIO.R (@auratOr.........the road never ends...........) ID#119358:
with my longhorned compliments.......

http://www.dallasnews.com/lifestyles-nf/hp1.htm

G&P.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 20:21
SDRer (PPT and Congress has to approve 'gold sales' and BELIEF in our 'open' government…) ID#93135:

Might we take under consideration those 'policies' which a government might pursue within the sealed envelope of National Security?

BIG, plain, brown, unmarked, sealed [with that 'post-it' glue] envelope... mmmmh {:- (


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 20:05
Isure (@ Squirrel) ID#421269:

Are you close to Creede, or Lake City?

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 20:05
skinny (Donald) ID#287114:
Canada and many other countrys play into the currancy markets regularly to protect there socialist dollars. This is not rigging the markets,the speculators are right there with them. Pure Capatalism... put up your bet...you win or lose. It would take many countrys working together to fix the markets. And then take Canada as an example,,, buying into the markets with a 60 cent dollar.......no wonder the Socialist wonders have worthless fiats. Trying to protect the worthless.







ca

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 20:05
SDRer (JTF-Strong? Weak? JTF that's old paradigm! {:-))) ID#93135:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

NEW paradigm is STABILITY, with growth…or as it is sometimes known Sustainable Development. Sound familiar? Yes! That's EXACTLY where you heard it…the Greens, the UN, on ad infinitum.
One is waiting [impatiently] for 'them' to realize that sustainable development is one of the disciplines of THE GOLD STANDARD.

The folks at your friendly ECB have commissioned a new oratorio [Handelian, one feels sure-in the manner of 'Messiah'-to herald the wonders of growth and stability and the triumph of modern central banks. It should be finished just about the time they are….

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 19:58
2BR02B? (Donald) ID#266105:

From the PPT article:

All we have is suspicion..

Pretty nebulous proof. It isn't a physical impossibility
that an agency underling at the Treasury is sitting at a
terminal executing massive block trades through a bogus
shell government account whenever warranted. Just highly
improbable.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 19:50
ravenfire (i have seen the beginning of the end of Amazon.com) ID#365190:
and its countenance was the form of websites that compare prices live online

http://www.pricewatch.com/
http://www.mysimon.com/


hmmmm...... $15 billion dollar market cap.... hahahaha....

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 19:41
Donald (@Skinny; Japan will intervene in currency market when necessary) ID#26793:
http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/9807/31/miyazawa/index-txt.htm

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 19:34
Snowball (True wealth) ID#290213:
Copyright © 1998 Snowball/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved


This is beautiful. Merry Christmas to ALL!
----------
The story goes that some time ago, a man punished his
3-year-old daughter for wasting a roll of gold wrapping
paper. Money was tight and he became infuriated when
the child tried to decorate a box to put under the Christmas
tree. Nevertheless, the little girl brought the gift to her father
the next morning and said This is for you, Daddy. He was
embarrassed by his earlier overreaction, but his anger flared
again when he found the box was empty. He yelled at her,
Don't you know that when you give someone a present,
there's supposed to be something inside it?


The little girl looked up at him with tears in her eyes and said,
Daddy it is not empty. I blew kisses into the box. All for you.

The father was crushed. He put his arms around his little girl,
and he begged for her forgiveness. It is told that the man kept
that gold box by his bed for years and whenever he was
discouraged, he would take out an imaginary kiss and
remember the love of the child who had put it there.

In a very real sense, each of us as parents has been given a
gold container filled with unconditional love and kisses from
our children. There is no more precious possession anyone
could hold.

You now have the choice, you can:
1 ) Pass this on to your friends
2 ) Delete it and act like it didn't touch your heart


As you can see, I took choice number 1.



Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 19:30
Donald (@Skinny; Plunge Protection Team active on Oct. 28, 1997, market drop.) ID#26793:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/7744/rallies_971029.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 19:27
OLD GOLD (Crazy ) ID#242326:
I'm afraid the US appetite for aggression will continue to escalate until somebody finally hits back effectively. The way things are going it would not surprise me if the US before long threatens to bomb any weak nation that sells T bonds or buys gold. Sounds crazy but, hey, these are crazy times.

The UN now is more bankrupt than the old League of Nations ever was. The League essentially fell apart when it failed to oppose Japanese, Italian, and German aggression. But at least it did not actively connive at aggression as the current UN has done.


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 19:27
Squirrel (Tolerant1 and Mooney - Namaste') ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Tabasco is too expensive. Other Hot Sauces cover more for less.
Rice IS nice. Besides, I've way too much pasta. If other cultures can survive on it and some fish then it must be okay. Tuna - just about the cheapest canned meat on the market. But I've only about 500 cans so far.
Maybe I should get some canned chicken and beef for variety.
Didja ever try spaghetti, tuna & tomato sauce? Different but it's filling.
SILVER - now THAT yields a better lining. Historically the money of the masses. I should buy a few more pounds of it - junk and Eagles. But the local economic depression has consumed most of my dry powder. Little to no snow here high in the Colo. Rockies. Folks without work and thus not spending much. The local Zinc/Lead mine is slated to close next year too ( not enough Gold, Silver and Copper values to help the other two ) .

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 19:22
2BR02B? (skinny) ID#266105:

Berlin--and its wall. Wup a little policy on'm, let it run
fifty years, check the results. A common people with common
history of common experience divided at a common point in
time. The evidence is in.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 19:20
Donald (@Skinny; scroll down to item 4) ID#26793:
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/pf/pf.htm

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 19:19
Tantalus (@tolerant1: That was no priest, it was Col. Sanders) ID#317211:

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 19:13
Mooney* (@Squirrel) ID#348169:
Rice is nice - but the rest of your plan needs revision. And Tuna ? You got cat's or What?

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 19:08
skinny (Donald) ID#28994:
Show me the proof....anyone can talk.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:58
Who Cares? (JTF - Euro DOA, Not Surprised. :)) ID#189232:
Copyright © 1998 Who Cares?/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I'm not surprised at the German tax rate. Trust me on this. The
ENTIRE dynamic of what we are witnessing vis a vis the global
economic situation is being driven by OLIGOPOLIES.

The Euro will do exactly the MINIMUM necessary to compete with
the $. Since the number of relatively attractive countries is
small, they will NOT compete with each other. They will monitor
the responses of their competitors and do the minimum to compete.
And, they WILL retract even that minimum amount if they perceive
that the de facto oligopic leader is doing the same.

I've been pondering this for months. My wife and I rehashed this
last night. Ultimately, in order to maintain maximum protection
against the New Global Oligopic Order, we only see two alternatives -
metals and gems. Most paper can't be guaranteed and its mobility
outside of the system is limited. Drug dealers have already
hashed this all out themselves. That's why they use the U.S. $$
for now.

It's a drag.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:57
SWP1 (@EJ) ID#233199:
Thanks for your response...

I keep thinking that the stock market is a naked as the emperor.
Is the price of shares as eveindenced in the record PE multiples like the mulltiplier effect of bank reserv requirements given that all the money exchnged for shares go to some other ( sucker? ) to use in turn to buy more shares?

Just how leveraged are we I wonder?

...swp1

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:57
Goldteck (Bill Clinton and Kenneth Starr,Men of the Year) ID#431200:

http://cgi.pathfinder.com/time/moy/menofyear.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:54
Donald (@Skinny) ID#26793:
Yes, I think it is true, some governments are even bragging about it. I don't think they can do it for much longer however. Ask the Russians, ask the Japanese, ask the Indonesians or Malaysians if it works. The market is the master of us all.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:52
tolerant1 (Squirrel, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...) ID#20359:
Don't forget the Tabasco sauce...now about that silver...

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:49
Goldteck (Clinton man of the year ) ID#431200:

http://cgi.pathfinder.com/time/moy/menofyear.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:49
JTF (More thoughts about Armstrong's EURO 'Tax War' the EURO to die just as it is born?) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: There are some very interesting comments in this article. First, France and Germany are trying to level the playing field -- not by reducing their taxes and entitlements -- but by eliminating 'loopholes' elsewhere. For example, the ECU is trying to eliminate all the tax havens. I think there is some real truth to this, as I got a complementary copy of 'Resident Abroad' and was surprised to see that all sort of new regulations/rules have been set up on tax havens. Martin Armstrong also mentioned that there is a move afoot to go after the international Hedge funds. Apparently, for some reason, Britain has been coerced to acquisces to Germany's desires on this to eliminate 'tax havens'.

Also, on Jan 1 1999, the German ( corporate ) tax rate will rise from 28% to 50%. Apparently a mass exodus of German companies are leaving for greener pastures.

What a fiasco. The EURO launch should have been a renaissance in free enterprise. Instead, it is apparently an attempt to export German and French socialism instead.

The conclusion is obvious -- there will be a 'flight to safety' in US dollars, even with the Clinton situation. Also -- G. Soros' prediction of a crisis driven by differential interest rates ( tax rates too? ) is probably about to come true.

A gold/US dollar/US equity market rally is likely if the EURO really goes sour. I wonder how long the honeymoon of the EURO will last. Not long, apparently.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:37
neer-do-well (Forever) ID#391172:
Copyright © 1998 neer-do-well/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Around Easyer we hear that Forever,forever,forever song by Handle

We hung in there in Vietnam...Forever...f....f...

We hang in there on Cuba...Forever...f...f..

Now it's Iraq..Forever...f...f...

And support for Isarel.. Forever...f...f...

American forged policy is iron-clad consistent,do you remember the Vietnam war years and how the spin peoples leveraged an attitude to discredit the protesters your not supporting our brave boys. You hear it even to this day and peoples are still eating it up. They like it that way.

No amount of protest means a dam thing when compared to the easily manipulated bulk of American patriots.

The scrafice does not justify the war..say it until you understand it....the war must justify the scrafice..that too.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:35
tolerant1 (church going family man...) ID#20359:
http://www.nando.net/front/photopage/0,2081,,00.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:34
Squirrel (Tolerant1 - other than some heirlooms and some new MLs for tourists) ID#287186:
Other than hanging on to the above just in case, I own no Gold for you to take off my hands. My exposure is under 1 ounce - of Gold. But lead and powder in brass cases - THAT I may have hundreds of pounds of - just in case. And lots of canned tuna, chili, pasta, rice and beef stew. I need to find someplace to store several hundred more pounds of GRAIN.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:33
skinny (Donald) ID#28994:
You posted it.... Now,,, Do you think its true.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:28
Donald (World governments and CB's are rigging stock and bond markets) ID#26793:
http://www.smithers.co.uk/standard59.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:27
APH___b (About inflation of stocks) ID#255226:
Amen!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:26
Squirrel (Feeding Frenzy Among Sharks (with apologies to real sharks) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Carville and Clinton's other hit men and women will follow the behavior of other cornered dangerous animals. They will lash out at anyone regardless of whether friend or enemy. As with sub-dominant males who have just taken a licking from the dominant male, may luck help anyone unfortunate to be in their path. Clinton and his cronies will also take out their aggression on any group or nation that appears vulnerable. Domestically that means groups and individuals who go against the grain whether they are viable threats or not. Internationally that means any country that can be lured into looking crosswise at Clinton and the US.
Any available target is at risk.
Like an injured raging bull or ape in the forest - only two solutions apply. 1} head for cover ( but with the resources of the US, there is nowhere to hide. 2} Remove him from office and fumigate Washington.

I am not picking just on Clinton and his lieutenants.
The Republicans will eventually do the same to anyone crossing them.
Castro had better watch out. He presents the nearest target for all this aggression. Hmmmm - maybe we don't want Clinton taken down too early.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:18
EJ (SWP1) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Much has been said of the so-called wealth effect which causes investors with a nice balance showing on their mutual fund or 401K statement to feel like they have a lot of money when in fact they own a lot of stocks. Folks who feel like they have a lot of money do indeed spend more. But the effect is indirect and marginal. A more direct effect is folks refinacing thier homes and thus paying less interest and having more to spend on goods. With a 20% increase in the money supply in a year, you have to ask, Where's the inflation. The answer appears to be in the price of equities rather than the price of goods and services.
-EJ

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:13
Jack (ANOTHER is a gentleman. Sorry bad wording 3rd para) ID#254288:
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Some here believe that gold /is/has been/will continue
to be/ manipulated. Some will not openly admit it, fear
of not appearing politically correct is probably the
reason. Another's opinions were welcome by many -
/right/wrong/or otherwise/.
This means that not every one believed in 30 grand gold, but who knows the future and Another just expressed his
thoughts.

No question; Today, A lot more paper is circling the
globe than before. Currencies are /topling/bobbing/ all
around us, perhaps because speculators like to attack
fiat. Whose next?
Can one imagine the dollar; it really hasn't been a
dollar since the early seventies.

Another is believed by some to be Middle Eastern. How
would we feel giving our resources away so that some
Middle Easterners could live the good life
while we were not doing all that well.

We have to admit that oil a fairly old form of energy,
but it turns the worlds industrial machinery and much,
much more. What happens if the oil producers shut the
spigot?
Hell it can't happen because the dollar /was/ as good as gold, after WW2, look what happened since.

Was Jimmy Carter really wrong about Energy Self
Sufficiency? Imagine if we developed the Colorado Shale
Oil Deposits or other energy forms, even went full out
for nuclear energy which is not PC. Or Canada went full
blast on its Oil Sands or nuclear energy.
After 20 years; would these forms of energy been as
expensive or as dangerous as they were at their outset?

No we rather spend fiat on war or for space travel to a
distant solar system that will take a lifetime to get to because we fear that an Asteroid will end it all.

Mr. Another is a gentleman who expressed an opinion, I
don't see any fault with that. Considering_____?

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:03
Jack (ANOTHER is a gentleman.) ID#254288:
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Some here believe that gold /is/has been/will continue to be/ manipulated. Some will not openly admit it, fear of not appearing politically correct is probably the reason. Another's opinions were welcome by many - /right/wrong/or otherwise/.
This means that not every one believed in 30 grand gold, but who knows the future and Another just expressedhis thoughts.

No question; Today, A lot more paper is circling the globe than before. Currencies are /topling/bobbing/ all around us, perhaps because speculators like to attack fiat. Whose next?
Can one imagine the dollar; it really hasn't been a dollar since the early seventies.

Another is believed by some to be Middle Eastern. How would we feel by giving our resources away so that some Middle Easterners so that they could live the good life while you were not doing at all well.

We have to admit that oil a fairly old form of energy , but it turns the worlds industrial machinery and much, much more. What happens if the oil producers shut the spigot?
Hell it can't happen because the dollar /was/ as good as gold, after WW2, look what happened since.

Was Jimmy Carter really wrong about Energy Self Sufficiency? Imagine if we developed the Colorado Shale Oil Deposits or other energy forms, even went full out for nuclear energy which is not PC. Or Canada went full blast on its Oil Sands or nuclear energy.
After 20 years; would these forms of energy been as expensive or as dangerous as they were at their outset?

No we rather spend fiat on war or for space travel to a distant solar system that will take a lifetime to get to because we fear that an Asteroid will end it all.

Mr. Another is a gentleman who expressed an opinion, I don't see any fault with that. Considering_____?

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 18:00
tolerant1 (I will take the gold off anybody's hands who thinks gold is stuck in pricepoint for years) ID#20359:
to come...like a barbershop...NEXT!...

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 17:56
Donald (Iraqi oil facilities intact after bombing, prices seen headed even lower Monday.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981220/1.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 17:52
Squirrel (I agree with Farfel on the POG - but there is hope after the end) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Nothing in sight or even over the horizon can help Gold in the face of its enemies. There is reason to believe that forces are trying to hold the POG up so that favored Gold producers and sellers don't get stuck holding the bag when the POG collapses to a price reflective of its non-monetary status. If the bubbles continue perking along then Gold is relegated to an ever-decreasing role as a medium of foreign exchange, especially when consolidating currencies make for fewer foreign exchanges that can't be done with one of the major reserve currencies {assuming Yen or Euros assume that role too}.

Given all that has transpired in the world in the last year, it seems nothing short of global devastation and civilization collapse could help the value of Gold as a store of value and medium of exchange. But with that severe of a correction folks will be using grains of wheat instead of Gold.

THERE IS HOPE FOR HOLDERS OF GOLD THOUGH - if they hold it long enough.
Such a collapse would last a century or more. Perhaps the survivors of our great grandchildren {if we have any} could dig it up from our caches and pass it along to their surviving grandkids so they could use it to begin to rebuild monetary civilization anew - around 2,200 AD or so.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 17:48
APH___b (Larry Flynt) ID#255226:
Consider the source, Larry Flynt the scumbag of morality thinks he has religion since he got put in that wheelchair. I dont think that
has changed the character of Larry Flynt!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 17:48
APH___b (Larry Flynt) ID#255226:
Consider the source, Larry Flynt the scumbag of morality thinks he has religion since he got put in that wheelchair. I dont think that
has changed the character of Larry Flynt!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 17:48
Tortfeasor (James Carville) ID#37463:
-
This may have already turned up here this morning but I watched James Carville and Mary Matlin on Meet the Press this Morning. I was sickened by Carville's vengeful attitute. It would have been interesting to have been in their car on the way home. Carville is a mad dog and he is Clinton's mad dog. He is threatening to turn out all the House who voted for impeachment. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I for one will be out to vote in 2000 but it certainly won't be out to vote for Clinton supporter. I find the polls that cite in the news exactly opposite to CNN and ABC internet polls. I guess that means that if you have a computer generally you are more conservative. I should have notice when I bought that firt Mac that I was less caring and more vindictive about the downtrodden. When I bought my G-3 Mac, well you must know how fascist I feel now. It will be interesting to see how gold goes this week. When Farfel loses faith in gold I become somewhat fearful myself.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 17:33
Donald (Flynt ready to name big fish Republican and much, much more.) ID#26793:
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/pl/story.html?s=v/nm/19981219/pl/hustler_4.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 17:32
EJ (farfel) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
We do not know why a great speculative orgy occurred in 1928 and 1929... Far more important than the rate of interest and the supply of credit is the mood. Speculation on a large scale requires a pervasive sense of confidence and optimism and conviction that ordinary people were meant to be rich. People must also have faith in the good intentions and even in the benevolence of others, for it is by the agency of others that they will get rich... The common folks believe in their leaders... Such a feeling of trust is essential for a boom.

- J.K.Galbraith, The Great Crash 1929

Just at the moment when everyone is in complete agreement that the markets have been made foolproof by the Fed, the markets prove them wrong. I take it from your post that the moment is near, since you have succummed to the prevailing belief that the Fed can control the economy, when in fact it can only influence it, sometimes profoundly, at other times hardly at all.

-EJ

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 17:29
skinny (WDL) ID#28994:
What hisses me off is The Right Wingers ( my type ) who all of a sudden turn into a bunch of Lefty Bleeding Hearts ( phoney bunch ) they are.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 17:27
SWP1 (@ EJ _ Clarification please) ID#286224:
Copyright © 1998 SWP1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You wroter:

[.... Money is going into financial assets rather than the real economy, thus the prices of goods and services continues to be stable. ...]

Could you help me ( and others perhaps ) how money that goes into financial instruments does not continue on into the real economy ( market ) as demand for goods and services?

I have a hard time seeing financial assets as safe-deposit boxes for hot money ( or any other kind of money ) . I think it comes out as as fast as it goes in..somebody is spending that cash on something.

I do hope you can clarify this for me. I'm probably just being over simplistic.

Thanks...

...steven

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 17:23
Who Cares? (Next Clinton Scandal) ID#189232:
Copyright © 1998 Who Cares?/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Here's a link to the story at Conspiracy Nation. For those who
don't know, the editor is probably the basis for the Mel Gibson
character in _Conspiracy Nation_.

http://www.shout.net/~bigred/cnns1219

Here's the important stuff from the story -

We have heard, and from some rather credible sources, that
there are quiet discussions going on about invoking the
25th Amendment should Clinton begin to act even remotely
strangely. Many members of Congress believe that Bill has
a substance abuse problem and the term cocaine psychosis
was repeatedly used in one such conversation as several
congressional staffers from different offices were trying
to understand the recent Reuters wire story about Bill
being in denial.

CNNS later spoke by telephone with our source, the journalist
mentioned above. This source tells us that Bill Clinton has
repeatedly, while president, made covert trips to Arkansas for
the purpose of partying. The source calls these Clinton
mini-vacations covert because Air Force One was not used to
transport the president to and from Arkansas on those occasions.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 17:21
Donald (Markets open in NZ, dollar gaps down on impeachment news but trading is light) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981220/bp.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 17:15
farfel (@ALL... Random Thoughts from Farfel....) ID#341227:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Back from a one week vacation and I just thought I would check in with KitcoLand.

I do not expect to post much from this point on, NOT for the same reasons as PH in LA. Rather, time bankruptcy is the central factor...and I suppose cynicism is the secondary one. What am I cynical about? As I wrote some time ago, I am NOW truly of the mind that, so long as Rubin and Greenspan remain the de facto architects of the Free World economy, then the chance for notable appreciation in the price of precious metals is somewhere next to zero. These two fellows have completely subverted the once free financial markets in America...and their incessant intervention ( in collusion with friendly central banks, international monetary institutions, Wall Street institutions, and Big Media ) to preclude these markets from moving to their natural equilibrium points is profound, overt, and extraordinary.

In a nutshell, the preceding paragraph encapsulates about ALL I really have to say about precious metals today. As I have said before, my only real expertise lies in the areas of economics and psychology. However, I studied FREE markets at Yale, not centrally planned markets ( as we NOW have in America ) . So, I cannot begin to analyze or predict the movements of today's controlled markets except to acknowledge that, indeed, the Trend is Your Friend because that seems to be the dominant desire of Wall Street and the government it controls.

In the same vein, I have nothing substantive to offer in terms of mass psychological interpretation and how it affects the markets. Essentially, any idiot can figure out mass psychology in today's markets and it does not take an Ivy League education in any way shape or form. The mass psychology is very simple: there is no fear anymore because ALL Americans essentially believe the government will ALWAYS intervene to support the markets and preclude financial failure for its citizens...just as it did in Fall, 97 and Fall, 98. SO, that is where we are at today...Americans now hold ingrained BUY AND HOLD perceptions of the market...and nothing will shake those perceptions until the day arrives where the government will not ( or cannot ) support the market.

As I have stated previously, I am baffled as to why the American investor even bothers to consult with financial analysts or advisors any longer. It seems that Wall Street institutions should advocate a major downsizing within their own ranks, specifically the mass firing of all financial analysts. Only the traders need be retained. With an intrusive government supporting the market, then who really cares what any analyst has to say about a stock's prospects? The strategy to making money is simply brain-dead: Buy a major DOW or NASDAQ blue chip company and hold it indefinitely, content in the knowledge that America's financial masters will NEVER allow you to lose money on your investment.

Essentially, I have nothing further to offer this forum other than the analyses provided above. I could continue to reiterate them ad nauseum but it would be a waste of my time and your time.

As deep as my cynicism may run, at least I am content in the knowledge that I am NOT alone. I see that my frame of mind is spreading like wildfire throughout the country.

RJ's compelling, articulate 12:54 is a good example of that cynicism. He posits that there really is no difference between Democrats and Republicans insofar as they are both mostly concerned with the search for power. He is correct.

So, take your pick...Democrat or Republican hypocrisy. Clinton rails against the politics of personal destruction yet, by clinging desperately to the reins of power, he practises the politics of national destruction. Republicans demand that the president be a moral exemplar while every indication suggests no such person can be found within their own party.

Yet, despite all the hypocrisy, I honestly believe that the only antidote to such rampant national cynicism is a swinging pendulum. It has been stuck in one position far too long and it is time to clean house. Time to say Adios to Clinton and his partners in crime and invite fresh faces to steer the national boat.

Will the new captains guide us to a better world? Not necessarily. But the journey will certainly be different...and America desperately needs to try another path than the one currently leading the country and the rest of the world to ruin.

Good luck fellas...and Happy '99!

Thanks.

F*










Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 17:12
Donald (Next Japanese budget to be 71 trillion yen, 61 trillion will be borrowed.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981220/w.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 17:07
WDL (@Iraqi situation) ID#235295:
-
With regard to skinny's earlier post...don't you think those Iraqis are
thinking right now of how to avenge our recent Cruise missile attacks.
The world is a much smaller place! What would it take for some Iraqi agent already in this country or arriving from overseas to poison our water supplies. Many of you problably know what a little bit of anthrax
could do to citizens of this country. Talk about the Flu epidemic that struck this country after World War I...small potatoes! We're talking about a catastrophe of monumental proportions. Or what if an Iraqi
agent left an atomic device in a suitcase in Times Square or on Wall Street. Wasn't the New York City police on hightened alert during the missile raids? Can it happen? My sad prediction is IT WILL HAPPEN!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 17:04
EJ (@CC, Envy, SDRer) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
CC,
Thanks. I'm off by a factor of ten with the current dollar count. A 1000% increase over $4T is $40T.

Envy,
The 120,000 metric ton world gold supply can increase by only 2500 tons per year maximum, or 2%, while dollars can be, and have been, created at a rate of up to 20% per year as they have in 1998. The net result is that some day, if there's a panic, the demand for dollars will drop and the demand for real assets will rise. I'm not sure that true deflation is possible when the value of the currency has no basis other than perception. What we have now is an artificial deflation based on a perceived shortage of dollars relative to commodities. What is untested and entirely new and different about this case than the 1920s is that the dollar has no real value, whereas in the 1920s it did. What happens when there's a panic and the perception of the value of the dollar goes out the window during a panic to liquidity?

I 100% agree with your excellent post on Iraq. Russia and China are correct. It sets an odious precident for two nations to decide on their own without the agreement of an international body to perpetrate an act of war against a sovereign nation. I expect there will be prepercussions.

SDRer,
It's clear that the dollar must be devalued further. Whether this is done in an orderly way or not is uncertain.

To me, the most pressing issue is the continued inherent instability of the world financial system. The flux of currency values relative to the euro is another destabilizing factor. What will be the outcome of dollar cash versus gold in the event of a more severe panic than we had last summer? The NYT ran an article today ( posted below 13:44 ) suggesting that corporate debt grew so extraordinarily high after the Fed dropped rates recently that defaults are not out of the question in a significant downturn in the economy. This will easily snowball, since the usual cure, new easy credit, is the cause, so the Fed will have to step in some other way to halt a domino debt default fiasco.

Thanks for your comments.
-EJ

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 16:58
JTF (Martin Armstrong's comments about European Tax War) ID#254321:
SDRer: Any comments? Do the Europeans really want a strong EURO and a weak US dollar, or do they just want the EURO to dominate world trade?

You know more about this than the rest of us posters combined, IMHO.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 16:45
OLD GOLD (Iraq) ID#242325:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The human cost of of the Iraq attack.




Iraqi says thousands of casualties in attack

WASHINGTON, Dec 20 ( Reuters ) - Iraq's ambassador to the United Nations said on Sunday that U.S.
and British attacks on Iraq killed or wounded thousands of people.

``There has been enormous damage, mainly to the civilian infrastructure and to human life. I am told the
casualties are in thousands, in terms of people who were killed or wounded, but we don't have any final
figures,'' Nizar Hamdoon told CNN.

Hamdoon said Iraq would ask the U.N. Security Council to lift immediately the economic sanctions
imposed after it invaded Kuwait in 1990. ``We think we deserve that,'' he said.

It will argue that the lack of poisonous gases from the U.S. air raids showed that it was not developing chemical or biological weapons, the
ambassador added.

Hamdoon repeated the Iraqi position that Iraq can no longer work with the chief U.S. arms inspector, U.N. Special Commission Chairman Richard
Butler.

``I don't think there is any possibility ( of that ) ,'' he said. ``Butler was coordinating and conspiring together with the people in the ( U.S. )
administration here to try to bomb Iraq and to provide the pretext for that,'' he said.


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 16:39
skinny (Ever since W.W, one) ID#28994:
Chemical warfare has been a No No.. you can nuke me ...shoot me ..or hiss on me till death.... but the first sunabitch that I even think is even looking at me with germs is gonna get his ass cruised into the ground.
That is if I had any say in it.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 16:27
Who Cares? (JTF - More Interesting Clinton Factors) ID#189232:
Copyright © 1998 Who Cares?/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I pretty much agree with your commentary on Congress, Iraq, etc.

Some more interesting things that were hard to track down -

Four Americans died during the Iraq attack. It's being reported
as a pre-attack training accident in order to minimize it, but
the report I say was made YESTERDAY, not prior to the attack.

Next Clinton Scandal - Drudge has made references to a new story
out of Arkansas. I've now seen other references, but not SPECIFICS,
it was driving me nuts so I spent several hours yesterday tracking it
down. I'll repost the original article, but it's back to cocaine
in the President's nose. It has the ring of truth.

Jane Does - I'm watching MSNBC. It is now clear to ANYONE paying
attention that our media IS aware of many rumors, but have been
ordered not to mention them on-air. One commentator just brought
up the Clinton Rape / Juanita Broadnick stuff without being specific,
and John Dean signalled off-air to the commenator to drop it, and
the commentator, whathisname, come on, come on, anyway, NONE of the
guests or commentator would mention specifics, and moved on to
another topic after a brief conversation. It was weird. The
clueless in the audience had to be wondering what the hell was
going on. Very interesting.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 16:04
2BR02B? (gagnarad) ID#266105:
-

Word Games
Name-Calling
Glittering Generalities
Euphemisms
False Connections
Transfer
Testimonial
Special Appeals
Plain Folks
Bandwagon
Fear


Good propaganda sites, one of which I'd previously been through
to its full extent fairly recently. The refamiliarization with textbook
propaganda techniques served well innoculation against recent events.
Long after all had been said, just that everybody had not yet had the
chance to say it...there was little said NOT comprised, in whole or
in part, overtly or more subtly, of these basic textbook techniques.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 16:01
JTF (Senate impeachment trial -- logging of for chores) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
whocares?: Good point about the longer time between elections in the Senate. I was listening to Dale Bumpers Friday night, who said confidently that WJC would be impeached, and that the trial in the Senate might not be the 'shoo-in' for the president that he expects. I respect Dale Bumpers very much, as he is one of the ( rare ) honest politicians, even if he is a Democrat. He is also retiring this year -- another reason for him to speak truthfully.

I think the key question is whether the members of the Senate have the stomache to battle with the 700 or so FBI files, and if they are willing to release the real dirt about WJC. Clinton doesn't stand a chance if all the dirt comes out -- he would make Nixon look squeaky clean. But -- Kenneth Starr was ordered to stay away from the sensitive stuff.

Perhaps the Senate will let some of it leak out -- just enough to finish WJC once and for all. That would be a fitting end for someone who thinks the polls are everything, and that anyone associated with him is expendable, as long as he gets votes. Even Iraq. Don't get me wrong -- I don't want Iraq to have weapons of mass destruction. But -- I have no delusions that we have ended the terrorist threat on American soil -- by 4 days of pounding sand and empty buildings. The really dangerous stuff is obviously in deep underground bunkers. Can't imaging Saddam is dumb enough to keep them in his quarters, or party headquarters aboveground. He might have lost all of Bagdad if we got lucky with one of our cruise missles.

Anyone hear that we used our bunker busters on anything? I think we would have heard about that if we had hit the mother lode. If the mother lode was in Baghdad, there would have been a boatload of dead Iraqis and foreign journalists. Not from our missles -- but from what they hit.


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 15:59
tolerant1 (Envy, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...) ID#20359:
Brabo!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 15:51
gagnrad (Envy re Reality Check ) ID#43460:
Well said!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 15:38
Who Cares? (Factors in Senate Trial) ID#189232:
Factor to consider -

Senators faced elections every six years.
House Reps face elections every two years.

Ergo, many Democrat Senators may feel that their elections
are far enough into the future to vote their conscience.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 15:36
JTF (Dick Morris: The (Clinton) secret police do it again!) ID#254321:
All: Here is a tidbit from someone who knows alot of dirt about WJC.

http://www.nypostonline.com/commentary/7299.htm

I find it hard to believe that WJC's private eyes have stopping digging things up, and have voluntarily closed all those Republican FBI files strewn all over their desks! I bet that the new investigations are focused on ( mostly Republican ) senators this time.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 15:35
Envy (Reality Check) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
We just BOMBED a country.

Imagine you're sitting there in your little house with your family all hanging out eating some chips and reading a book. You've been listening to your government on the radio talk about doing this or that, talking about this big place called Iraq that has all these missiles and stuff. Those guys have a different religion than you do, you don't know anything about them, they're way over the ocean doing their own thing, and they're a rich country, the supreme force in the Universe as far as you've heard. Whatever, Iraq can do it's own thing, you just don't care. You just want to be left alone so you can do whatever it is that you do and take care of your wife and your kids. You probably think your own government is stupid, everyone thinks their government gets out of hand sometimes and does stupid things. Your government has a point though, but then so does this place called Iraq, they're making some sense too, especially after your government just invaded your neighbor, Canada, and got beat on as a result. A lot of people in your country died in that little war, and Iraq was teamed up with all it's neighbors to do the killing.

But after that war, Iraq starts making moves on your country. They now say you aren't free to do whatever you want anymore. Not only are you not allowed to do some things, you have to let people in from Iraq and their friends to double-check that you are doing what they said to do. They've also put up barriers that mean your country can't ship out oil, and you are having trouble getting food.

AND NOW this place called Iraq has the nerve to shoot these sophisticated missiles over your heads and blow up parts of your city ? What the hell ? What's up with that ? Iraq could have killed one of your children, high explosives aren't a joke. Then you hear that this leader in Iraq is saying that you might want to think about killing off your own government officials, what the hell ? Who do these guys think they are anyway ? You want food for your family, you want to sell products to the rest of the world, you want to protect your family, and you want to have pride in your country which has been on the earth far longer than this Iraq place. You don't even understand these guys religion, which is very important to you. You know they don't understand your country, your religion, your people. You see yourself as a sovereign nation, along with all the other nations around you that share your religious beliefs. And these Iraq guys just bombed some other countries around you that share your beliefs, your traditions, your culture.

I suspect if you have missiles wizzing over your head, you're getting really irritated about now, you're probably thinking Iraq is getting out of control, and you're going to end up having to do something about it if they keep screwing around with you and your people. You're a patriot at heart, and if you're forced to, you'll go to any lengths to make these guys pay. One of your neighbors knew a guy that worked in one of the places that just got blown up. As an American, as a man, you aren't going to stand for this crap from some country you don't know anything about. The human animal can do anything when it puts it's mind to work, do these guys in Iraq honestly think you can't come up with a way to protect yourself if you decide to ? Do these folks honestly think you won't come over there and find a way to kick their ass ? You might not have a lot of money, and you might not have all those expensive cruise missiles, but you ain't stupid either, and you can get pretty inventive when you want to be. The resentment builds, and you start watching Red Dawn re-runs on the television and your mind wanders. Your little girl cried last night because she was so afraid that one of those missiles was going to hit your house, and that really chimes your clock. The guys in the bar are starting to talk, and your minister at church is making more sense everyday when he talks about these Moslem guys.
--
First rule of a normal human being: Never make your own death the easiest solution to a problem. Never create a problem that your destruction would solve. Never under-estimate the power of the human heart. This isn't about some liberal humanitarian save the children junk, this is about making enemies where you could be making friends.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 15:28
3-cubed (@ JTF MORE ON EURO) ID#344239:
Copyright © 1998 3-cubed/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Friday, December 18, 1998
Why the euro is creating a stir


Market Analysis
With the introduction of the euro less than three weeks away, I thought it might be appropriate to discuss some of the reasons that it has been creating such a stir. Eleven European nations will be involved in the first round of currency unification on January 1, 1999: Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Finland, Ireland and Portugal. The second round of participation, which will likely include Great Britain, Greece, Denmark and Sweden, should take place in a few years. One of the reasons that many investors are confused with the single currency, is that a tangible euro in the form of hard currency will not exist until some time in the year 2002. Banks and businesses will have the choice to manage their books with either the euro or their local currency in 1999, and in order to make the transition easier, many have indicated that they intend to report results in both.

Participating countries should feel benefits immediately.
Participating countries should be feel benefits immediately. Competition should be promoted, as it will be easier for consumers to compare prices. Cross-border investment will be easier, as transaction costs will be eliminated, and businesses will need to handle only one currency. Countries that currently possess more stringent banking laws will open up, creating more competition between euro members. Cross-border consolidation by the banks is inevitable as bigger players take advantage of relaxed laws that govern them, to get their foot in the door of smaller markets. As a result, companies will benefit from lower borrowing costs and this broader access to capital will spur growth. Finally, individual investment in other countries will be easier and less risky.

The introduction of the euro has significant implications for dollar, as it has been the reserve currency of choice for central banks of the world. The dollar was represented on one side of 83 percent of all currency trades in 1995, while 57 percent of the world's reserves were in dollars in 1997. Nearly all of the world's commodities are priced in dollars and about half of the world's trade is invoiced in dollars. It is only logical to assume that a shift to euros will occur to more accurately reflect trade flows.

A weak dollar will result in a reduction in imports.
The U.S. has been living on borrowed time with respect to our surging economic situation. We have had rapidly advancing current account deficits that have been offset by major capital inflows. These diametrically linked forces have permitted this incredible bull market. As investors and banks begin accumulating reserves in euros, the dollar will lose some of its support. A weak dollar will result in a reduction in imports, ultimately slowing our economy. Investors would be wise to find international investments that suit them to diversify away from the volatility that we are bound to endure.

On the move
Nike ( NKE ) reported earnings for the second fiscal quarter of 24 cents a share. The athletic shoe and clothing retailer was expected to earn 22 cents a share.

Stock Picks Portfolio
Shares of Ciber were stronger on Thursday, regaining much of their losses from the last week. I would expect the whole IT group to rally in the coming weeks. Once the holidays are over and 1999 arrives, I believe that the millennium bug will receive renewed attention. With the less than a year to go, many companies that haven't addressed the problem are going to have to place the Y2K issue front and center. The IT consulting firms should receive a nice pop as a result. Ideas and Trends
The millennium bug will receive renewed attention in 1999.
Is this a topsy-turvy market or what? We begin bombing Iraq, which - in a market that hangs on every move and word of the government and the Federal Reserve - is the same as going to war, and defense stocks drop. Furthermore, oil stocks were substantially weaker as well. Granted, our attacks didn't take out any of Iraq's oil reserves, but the fact remains that the country is still one of the world's leading oil producers, and assaulting their country is going to disrupt production in some way. Gold and silver, traditionally safe havens in times of conflict, both were also weaker on the day.

Perhaps some of this backward investing style has something to do with triple witching, which occurs on the Friday prior to the third Saturday of the month - or tomorrow. Triple witching is different from option expiration in that triple witching is the expiration of S&P 500 futures, equity and index options. It is tough to analyze the market action on days that are so heavily influenced by traders covering their positions in so many different derivatives. We will have to wait until early next week to get a better feel for how this market is reacting to our attacks in Operation Desert Fox.

Please send us your ideas. Cousin Bob is always looking for suggestions, and he also welcomes any questions from readers.

go2net Stock Picks is a free service provided to our users with the purpose of outlining our approach to analyzing stocks. Those companies selected for inclusion within our virtual portfolio are done so based on exhaustive research that in our opinion reveals potential investment opportunities ( please see Company Reports ) . go2net has no financial or other interest with these companies that in any way influences our unbiased investment opinion.


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 15:24
gagnrad (RJ, Tolerant1 et al) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A short listing of propaganda demonstration, analysis and history pages. I think that among these resources you will be interested to see examples of ROR's compatriots, those of WJC, and others. I think that to understand the fundamentals behind the POG one must understand the politics behind the fundamentals. I think it behooves us all to see what hate looks like when it is cloaked in love, what lies look like masked in rhetoric and what greed is when hidden behind a glad hand. IMHO

http://carmen.artsci.washington.edu/propaganda/home.htm
http://faraday.ucd.ie/~daragh/articles/a_chpm.html
http://www.calvin.edu/academic/cas/gpa/index.htm
http://www.mcad.edu/classrooms/POLITPROP/palace/central/library.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 15:23
The Hatt (Japanese Buying Gold/ Here is the proof!) ID#294232:
Since May of 1998 Jipangu of Tokyo has acquired 23.8% of the outstanding shares of Claimstaker Resources, a Junior Gold Producer on the VSE. IMHO they have been buying gold and gold equities for some time now using that old trading stategy of ACCUMULATION. Take a look at Claimstakers chart! It becomes very obvious!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 15:23
JTF (Delusions and the Madness of Crowds -- or -- the crazy years) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
panda: I find it incredible that anyone would be unable to make the connection between the Iraq bombing and the Impeachment proceedings. But -- there are still alot of Democrats out there as well as poll takers that still do not see the light. My guess is that if someone was able to prove in a court of law that WJC commited treason by causing the massive security leak in the Commerce department, or that he ordered the intimidation of Kathleen Willey, easily 1/3-1/2 of the Democrats would believe that it was a conspiracy to overthrow the government, and still support the president.

I very proud of our US House of Representatives, and of Bob Livingston. More than 1/2 of the House realizes that the honor ( and future ) of our Democratic system is at risk. And it is nice to see our Congress acting like one of the three major branches of government -- for a change. WJC will never understand why Bob Livingston resigned.

Now, the tricky part is to make sure that the public knows what our congressional leaders know, but don't want to talk about. If the real dirt about WJC comes out, Dems and Republicans alike will be besmeared. But if the dirt does not come out, the Republicans will get nailed in the next election, and all of the patriotic activity of the last week or so will be for naught.


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 15:22
Leland (JTF, your 14:56 ) ID#316193:
Underscores some of the huge economic problems in Europe
that are just now coming to light. I still shudder when
I read of the hardships befalling the Russian populace.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.detnews.com/1998/nation/9812/20/12200017.htm

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 15:15
SDRer (EJ yr: 10:37-Thoughtful Observations & Interesting Questions ) ID#288155:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

One suspects that the CBs have long been aware of the need to manage a controlled devaluation of financial assets [not to mention financial LIABILITIES!]. The Euro presents that opportunity to the eleven: as of 1 Jan 99 ( or very soon thereafter with regards to government bonds/then private bonds ) the numbers will fit more comfortably with their gold holdings. And, if one wishes to 'buy', one will do well to purchase gold through one's Euro account somewhere in Europe.

When one sweeps aside the dollar cobwebs, and applies a standard unit of measurement to each fiat's POG, the devaluation of the dollar against the other fiats becomes apparent.

In 1991, Daniel Burstein wrote Euroquake, in which he claimed a seismic shift is occurring in the composition of global wealth. It is
convulsing the structure of international power relationships and changing the rules of international business competition. He made
numerous observations about America's financial management and wrote that A new global currency agreement will be hammered out
between 1995 and 1997... It may even be the precursor of a single globe-spanning currency for the Triad [United States, Germany and
Japan] as a whole. The new exchange rates will reflect the economic strength achieved by Europe and Japan, and the erosion of competitiveness in the United States. Although the system itself will be intricate, the bottom line will be a massive devaluation of American assets roughly analogous to fixing today's exchange rate at $1.00 = yen 1.05 and deutsche mark 1.2. This book was published the end of 1991 when the dollar was as 1.25 yen and 1.52 deutsche marks.
http://www.ninehundred.net/~jveon/1WORLDCU.htm

Has a financial devaluation of such magnitude ever been 'managed' before?
Thank you again for sharing your thoughts.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 15:06
panda (JTF) ID#50148:
What I find curious about the gold miners is that the consolidation is taking so long. How about this; Gold stocks don't really start to move until the industry consolidates to a handful of big mining companies. Something like a return to the seventies. No 'assortment' of explorers, juniors, seniors, or whatever. Just a handful of big names, sort of like the MicroSofts and GE's of gold mining. It's just a thought.........

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 15:06
Who Cares? (Euro, $ and Greenspan) ID#189232:
Copyright © 1998 Who Cares?/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Part of the reason that Greenspan's rate cuts aren't shifting liquidity
where he wants it is the structural nature of the U.S. If this
were truly a free market, liquidity would tend to flow throughout
the economy. Since we really have an oligopoly, liquidity is instantly
redirected back into the controlling entities, which pump it back into
the stock market.

Envision the pumping of water into a system of many fine capilleries,
versus pumping into a system of a few arteries.

The Crash will destroy a great many oligopolic entities, and reduce
the power of others, at which point the economy will function
correctly again. Of course, it might take a few decades to restore
enough trust for people to invest again.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 15:03
tolerant1 (panda, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...) ID#20359:
This bombing of IRAQ will have had limited success but it has harmed our international standing in a major way.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 14:59
panda (Envy) ID#50148:
The question becomes this; What did WJC know and when did he know it? Butler's report was supposedly in WJC's hands on Sunday. Why the delay in the attack if it was so urgent? Then again, when was the House vote going to be taken?

Strange how the mission is now deemed 'over' after the House vote. This man has too many coincidences 'happening' at just the right time to be believable. If I had half the 'luck' that this probability would imply, then Bill Gates would have to move over in the 'who's the richest...'

:- ) )

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 14:56
JTF (Tax war! The EURO vs the US dollar) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Donald: I think you did it again!

Q: Why are big German firms buying US firms?

A: Is it because Germany is in better shape than we are? No! It is because they see trouble ahead in Europe!

The Europeans do not want a strong Euro relative to the US dollar, because then the Americans could not buy their goods. Also, Europe is far more socialized than we are -- with very high tax rates, and entitlements. To keep their governments/economies going, they will have to inflate the Euro some more and raise taxes , and at the same time compete for all the US dollar-denominated financial trade. So -- as long as the European economies are functioning resonably well, they will not dump dollars. The only thing I can see in clearly their favor is that the transition to the EURO makes an almost perfect setting to 'roll over' debt to new kinds of securities -- delaying the debt deflationary process. They can also use the transition to the EURO as a 'cover' so that they can transfer bad debts to expendable concerns, and keep the healthy ones.

Competitive devaluations, here we come. I'll bet that AG lowers rates some more -- if not now -- in January. I think he is desperately hoping that something holds the markets down so that the increased liquidity goes where he wants it to go, instead of into the markets. But -- just like in the 1925-1929 period -- I think he will find that the crazy euphoric deluded Clinton years are not over yet -- and nothing short of a nuclear attack will bring the US markets down.

Now -- it seems that the House is evenly divided between those who see that the Emporer has no clothes, and those that naively think he is wearing something. I don't know about the Senate. Any idea how long it will take enough of the public to finally figure out something is not right, so that the markets take a dive? My intuitive guess is that it will take longer than we at Kitco could possibly imagine. Maybe the US markets will survive all the way to y2k.

My guess is that the markets will rally in January 1999, and that precious metals will either remain stagnant, or start to rise. I will be relatively confident that gold equities are a good short term investment as long as the US markets or some major foreign market such as South America doesn't crash outright. We can forget the US dollar dropping alot more -- if it does, it will be despite the efforts of the Europeans and possibly Japan to keep it up. Anything to keep the current euphoric party period going -- as long as possible. And the US economic machine is what is keeping the party going. Can't keep going nonstop forever.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 14:52
panda (tolerant1) ID#50148:
One more thing, Bill doesn't like budgeting money for those cruise missiles, but dang! They sure seem to come in handy for him. :- ) )

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 14:48
Envy (Umm) ID#219363:
We just impeached our President. I'm not sure what to think about all that. I mean, you see it coming and you think maybe something is going to happen to him, but then the House of Representatives actualy impeaches him. He has been impeached. I'm still in a little bit of shock, not that I don't think it's a good thing, or a bad thing, just an amazing thing. Oh yeah, we just bombed the hell out of a country with cruise missiles too. Interesting times.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 14:48
panda (Tolerant1) ID#50148:
Copyright © 1998 panda/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
T1, a satellite up about 22,000 miles takes a picture of a car on the earth. A man is reading a newspaper laying on the hood of that car. How much gasoline is in the tank of that car?

The point is, we have no idea what or who is actually in those buildings. The launch of so many missiles makes for good video and not much else. On the other hand, if we were sinking aircraft carriers with those missiles, then that is a measurable quantity from the sky. Did we destroy the supposed nuclear/biologic/whatever weapons? If so, can anyone prove it without physically inspecting the locations? Perhaps this is why ground troops have always been necessary in wars.

Wag the Dog…………….


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 14:44
Cobra (Wrong URL) ID#34459:
Here is the correct URL to get to Yvan Yauger's page, sorry



http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/wrapup.html#wrapup

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 14:43
ROR (RJ) ID#35770:
Copyright © 1998 ROR/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
As a Democratic Socialist I am delighted with what is happening. A Dem Leadership Council guy IMPEACHED and rescued to some extent by the TRUE LEFT. This augurs well for progressivism. Also, I think the GOP will now start to distance themselves from the SOCIAL/Christian right.GOOD These were former working class democrats who crossed over in the Reagan Revulsion now they will come back and push the Dems to the left economically and to the right socially. How do you spell FDR REDUX.. how do you spell HIGHER ESTATE TAXES and a CAP off the SOCIAL SECURITY TAX. Things are finally starting to turn in the right direction after 18 long years. Down with THE Democratic Leadership Council, up with pro worker progressivism!!!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 14:38
Michael (topsy turvey world...) ID#346404:

The US spent about a half billion dollars to destroy a large number of empty buildings and tick off the arab world, Russia, France, and China. Why didn't we just buy their facilities, it would have been cheaper... Big bill got impeached never-the-less and now the UN inspectors are completely kicked out of Iraq. This is not a success! Air recon can never match ground inspectors... Sounds like a victory ( but not for US ) . Even the Pope deplored the aggression. Time to watch some NBA action. Oh nevermind...

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 14:37
panda (Tantalus) ID#50148:
Copyright © 1998 panda/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
An old, but frustrating question! The answer lies in the fact that socialism/communism is based on thievery. As long as there are those who find easier to steal ( by use of the 'government' if possible ) , we shall have this curse upon us. Socialistic ideas appeal to those who see themselves as being 'disadvantaged' by some 'power'. Thus the 'evil Republicans' who would take away government monies from those who were 'abused' by the powerful elite. The bad guys are cast as Satan himself and only the 'good' guys ( the liberals, who have managed to twist this once proud title in to something that it is not! ) can save the oppressed! The saving, though, comes at a terrible cost. Witness the current impeachment process. The Republicans are cast as The Great Satan. The Great Satan must be dealt with at any cost because we ( the liberals ) are on the side of 'good' ( entitlement programs, etc. ) Thus, we the liberals, ( fighting EVIL, of course ) , can employ whatever means, and indeed, all means possible to defeat them ( the Republicans ) . The liberals, after all, are on the side of GOD, and therefore, can do no wrong in fighting EVIL.

This is how socialism starts and grows. The point of the defense of William Jefferson Clinton is NOT THE DEFENSE of Clinton, but the defense of what he SAYS ( not, necessarily what he does ) . Thus we arrive at the bizarre situation of the Democratic Party defending an admitted liar, and morally bankrupt political leader. The fact that Clinton has done wrong, they say, is not just cause for his removal. After all, he is so popular!

When we as a nation arrive at the point where a man can be excused his crimes because of his 'popularity' ( O.J.Simpson ) we are in deep do doo. This, after all, is how Adolph Hitler came to power, no? So what if the Brown Shirts beat up those people selling wine to the school children! The police never did anything to them! Yes! The Brown Shirts did a good thing!

Funny thing though, History looks back and views the Brown Shirts and the Third Reich slightly differently. National Socialism versus Communism versus Democratic Socialism versus…. Ad nauseum … Look at the basic principle here, no one wants to hear the bad news, only the good. This is how corruption ( as in decay ) begins. Old Rome, here we come… Bring on the Christians! Loose the Lions!

And yes, one of the ( black ) Democratic Representitives got up to the podium in defense of WJC and accused the ( white ) 'Right Wing' Christians for the current proceedings. Yes, history repeats. I'm just waiting on the greatest redux of all, the grand old war between Moslem, Christian, and Judaism. This is what Clinton is playing with in his 'Wag the Dog' game in Iraq. Don't think that this is lost on Saddam…


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 14:36
tolerant1 (Donald, JTF, all, Namaste' gulp and a puff, I think it was one of you looking for this) ID#20359:
type of information, but if I remember incorrectly, here is a link about WIN95 and DOS...hope it helps ya...

http://www.explorer.oaktree.co.uk/explorer/sdam.htm

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 14:35
Cobra (XAU Update By Yvan Auger) ID#34459:
Yvan Auger has an upbeat message this week for AU prospects, I agree with him , we are sitting on support at XAU 63-64. Its a fibonnacci retracement number and should be strong support.. Take a look at the chart of AEM last few days, already bottomed and heading up. My long term position is a major up move lies just ahead for AU. Stock market has made a 33% retracement and could drop. Check out Yvan at the URL

http://mgl.ca/~yauger/wrapup.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 14:30
tolerant1 (415 Cruise Missiles are said to have been fired during Desert Fox...is it me or is this) ID#20359:
a huge sum of money...roughly $300,000,000 ( just missiles remember ) for a campaign with dubious motives and yet to be correctly measured for effectiveness...

I keep seeing the media show examples of destroyed barracks...does anyone truly believe that there were troops in these buildings during bombing raids?


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 14:04
tolerant1 (RJ, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...an eloquent post and in keeping with the Holiday) ID#20359:
seasons that are unfolding around the world...Brabo!...and in keeping with my positivity during this fine Holiday season I would like to close with a thought which I know will make the world a better place for all...

GET CAMDESUSS!









Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 13:57
ALBERICH (@RJ) ID#254112:
I liked to read your post. I share your despisement for both sides in this war of rats.

I only do not share your view of ANOTHER. I think in a long term perspective hiw views were very inspiring. But that's o.k.

Anyhow, thanks for your very thoughtful post on the current political events.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 13:55
Cobra (RJ--Your 12:54 post) ID#34459:
Copyright © 1998 Cobra /Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
RJ, while I have refrained from making any political comments during my short time at the Kitco Forum, I must tell you , your post of 12:54 made me think deeply, it was an eloquent post, given from no doubt many years of experience and or much practical application. I will most certainly look closely in the future to any futher contributions you may make. I for one appreciate your candid remarks. I can only state what I know is a fact about politics, First, it is about Power, second it is about Money, and who will be in control of both. Lastly ,politics is mostly a local issue. Those who do not vote really have no business casting stones at the party in power. As an aside I am grateful that today at least, Kitco is up and running for me, I follow it everyday and do miss it when it is unavailable on the WWW. Lately it's been tough getting it to come up.

CoBra

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 13:44
EJ (The solution to the Summer's financial panic the cause of the next?) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Big cut 'n paste from pay site.

December 20, 1998


ECONOMIC VIEW

Panics Always Start in Left Field

By LOUIS UCHITELLE

hink back to late summer and early fall. Financial panic seemed the order of
the day. On top of the Asian troubles came the Russian meltdown, and as
investors fled these and other developing regions, lending dried up or pulled
back everywhere. Even the United States seemed in danger of tumbling into recession.

All that is history now. Or is it?

The American economy is perking along energetically, shrugging off the Iraqi bombing
and the impeachment proceedings. The year-end forecasts from many quarters are for
continued good times, or at least not frightening times. East Asia and Russia are
unlikely to produce new episodes of financial panic. How can they? The big investors
there have either yanked their money or lost it.

There is no longer the wherewithal in these regions for another round of capital flight,
another round of plunging currencies and another round of economic collapse.

But the financial system that gave rise to the East Asian and Russian crises is still in
place, and trouble could erupt elsewhere -- suddenly, unexpectedly -- setting off a
fresh round of financial panic, with its aftermath of painful recessions. Potential
trouble is not easily calculable, said Paul Volcker, the former chairman of the Federal
Reserve Board. When it happens, it tends to be off the charts.

The debate over what lies ahead has settled into two channels -- one traditional, the
other haunting. The attention these days is focused mainly on the traditionalists, who
concern themselves with standard economic forces.

The consensus view, or at least the most common view among them, is that the
American economy will slow next year as consumers pull back on both their
extraordinary spending and their extraordinary borrowing to finance their spending.
But almost no forecaster foresees a recession.

Falling prices for many goods and a very low inflation rate are squeezing corporate
profits, they note. That can hurt the stock market. But with the economy holding up so
well, nervousness that stock prices might really plunge has faded along with alarm
about the Asian and Russian crises.

True, stocks may not go higher, said James Glassman, a senior economist at Chase
Manhattan Bank. They may even fall some. But we don't think there is a bubble
propping up the stock market, he said.

Above all, there is faith that the Federal Reserve has the leverage to give the economy
enough stimulus, through lower interest rates, to counteract any blow from abroad.

The worst may well be over for a battered and bruised global economy, wrote
Stephen S. Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, in his latest
forecast.

Roach anticipates rising economic growth around the globe by 2000 -- even in East
Asia, now mired in recession. One stimulus, he says, is the $160 billion in loans and
loan commitments that the International Monetary Fund has disbursed in rescue
packages.

All this is rather traditional forecasting. At a less audible level, there are some haunting
caveats from the less sanguine.

The worriers acknowledge that Asia, Russia, Brazil and Japan are not likely to prompt
the next financial panic: Those countries' problems, while acute, are known and are
being dealt with, more or less. And investors here and abroad, scared by Asia and
Russia, have been paying down debt.

No one knows exactly how much debt has been reduced, but it is likely that when the
next panic comes, there will be fewer borrowers in danger of default or forced into
hasty actions that make matters worse.

Panics, though, are responses not to known dangers but to events no one thought
would happen. No one is, for example, anticipating that Argentina will default on
foreign debts or devalue a currency that is pegged by law to the dollar.

Neither is anyone expecting a rude shock to come from right here in the United States,
said Albert Wojnilower, an economist at the Clipper Group, a Wall Street firm.

But it could. Business debt in the United States, rising for several years, jumped
sharply in the third quarter, to $522 billion, the Federal Reserve reported recently. That
is equivalent to about 6.5 percent of the gross domestic product, a very high level of
business debt.

What if an indebted multinational, its profits squeezed by falling prices, found itself
unable to keep up the payments on its loans? Wojnilower wondered. That picture is
conceivable, but in today's rosy economic climate, it is certainly unanticipated. Of such
surprises are financial panics made.

Nervous lenders would pull back again. In a global market where money flows freely
everywhere, the blow to America would spread. Short-term loans might be called in
from potentially shaky emerging markets. And a debate that has faded in recent months
-- how to regulate capital flows and how to make the IMF a more effective agency --
would once again take center stage.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 13:38
2BR02B? (political science is an oxymoron) ID#266105:

RJ- well said.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 13:35
Tantalus (@Donald: How many times must socialism/communism be tried) ID#317211:
before human beans realise that IT DOES NOT WORK.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 13:33
tolerant1 (money is a medium of exchange...that is all...no more...no less...no matter what form it takes...) ID#20359:
the FED is a drug dealer and it has created a world of addicts...the only way to cure the world of its addiction and eventual financial death is to lock the dollar in step with gold and silver...

If this simple remedy does not take place the world financial system will collapse...plain and simple...

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 13:27
Donald (European tax war could spark a major Depression) ID#26793:
http://www.pei-intl.com/TOPICS/TAXWAR.HTM

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 13:20
Tantalus (@Envy) ID#317211:
You're not such a bad economist. Pretty good, actually.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 13:10
Tantalus (@RJ re: PH in LA & Stuff. Hear Hear!) ID#317211:
Hittin' the nail squarely on the head.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 13:09
Envy (@EJ) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I'm not much of an economist, but I wanted to make a comment on your most excellent post. In my opinion ( which may or may not reflect reality ) there is a certain amount of wealth out there in the world. Wealth to me is kinda like stored up potential, something that has value that can be leveraged to do something. The vehicle or instrument of that stored potential can be just about anything that has value. If you own thousands of tons of steel, that's one way of saving wealth. If you own hundreds of acres of land, that's another. I've heard that this Christmas the thing people want their wealth to be stored in is Furby ( whatever that is ) . Anyway, there are millions of instruments for storing wealth, for storing potential, gold is one, the dollar is another. All of these things can be spent and have value, and that value is relatively constant ( not the price, the value ) . A dollar is a dollar, a gold coin is a gold coin, a Furby is a Furby, an acre of land is an acre of land, and a share of Amazon is, well, a scrap of paper that doesn't even pay a dividend.

The PRICE of these stores of potential, these stores of wealth, changes more often and is more volatile. The price ( not the value ) changes based on how much of something is in the market place, what it's prospects are for the future, how much people want it. A barrel of oil has a lot of value, but it's price is low right now because it's prospects are ugly for the future, because there is an inflated amount of oil in the market right now. The price of a share of Amazon is high, not because it's valuable, but because everyone wants it, it's the craze of the day. The price of a Furby is high right now because there aren't enough of them, and every child wants one for Christmas which is quickly approaching. The price of gold is down, because there's a lot of it in the market, and it's not in fashion. The price of a dollar is high, despite the fact that the FED is inflating the number of dollars in the market place, those dollars are leaving the market place faster than the FED can pump them in. Everyone wants dollars, and so the price of them goes up. The price of financial instruments in general is really high right now, everyone seems to want their money in the markets, I think that's a direct result of the automated 401-k machine in action, too much money chasing too few goods ( financial instruments ) .

If the stock markets fortunes change, then they'll change quickly, because the prospects for the stock market in the future may turn ugly and people holding equities will start feeling like ticket scalpers who are still holding tickets when the concert has started, or like Furby scalpers who are still holding a hoard of Furbys when kids start opening their presents on Christmas. If the markets go to hell I believe the dollar will lose value and rise in price. It will lose value because the FED will continue to multiply the number of dollars in the economy, but will rise in price because everyone who gets their hands on a dollar will squirrel them away and take them out of the economy ( save them ) , leaving few dollars out there for people who want them. It's a credit crunch, and I see it in the future. Prices on commodities, goods and services would continue to fall in that case as producers lowered the price of their goods ( not the value ) to attract some of those hidden dollars into their own hands. Dollars could become very hard to find.

What would make the price of oil move up ? Well, better prospects for the future would do it, say if too many wells started closing down and drillers went out of business, or there was a war and it looked like the world would need more oil but that there wouldn't be as much of it. The value of a barrel of oil would remain the same, it gives you a certain amount of power per liter, but the price of oil would go through the roof in certain situations.

What would make the price of gold move up ? In my reading, for a long term increase in price ( value remains relatively constant ) , you'd have to see massive inflation. I think that could happen at the other end of the deflationary pig. If the FED is pumping money into the market place, then suddenly deflation were to happen and everyone squirrels away their money, the FED will have to continue to pump money in ( which essentially during a severe deflation would go straight into someone's savings account and wouldn't stimulate lending ) . BUT, on the other end of that pig, when the money finally started coming out of the closet, there would suddenly be TONS of dollars out there chasing too few goods and services, and the price of gold would rocket in the presence of all those dollars. Note that this seems to happen after a recession to some extent. After recession, or slow-down, people start spending the money they have saved up, but many of the things they want to buy didn't live through the recession, and it forces up the price of those goods as too many dollars chase after what remains.

So I guess I'm thinking a good strategy right now IF you believe we are in, or going into, a deflationary time, is to hoard dollars, beat everyone else to it. Hoard dollars NOW, while dollars are relatively in-expensive, save money, pay off debt. On the other end of the pig, spend dollars like crazy on gold before everyone else does, before all the dollars come out of the closet and start buying stuff. It won't be like buying stuff right now, because on the next trip around, there will be a LOT more dollars to buy stuff with, and much less stuff to buy. That's what I think anyway. For sure the time to sell financial instruments is NOW, when everyone wants them, else you get stuck holding a bunch of Furbys after Christmas when the markets go south. The game remains the same as it ever was: Buy low, sell high. The time is upon us to buy some things, and sell others. Most people are stupid though and sell the things that are priced low vs. the value they hold, and turn that money into more Furbys. I think the jury is still out on gold.

NEVER LISTEN TO ENVY FOR INVESTMENT ADVICE

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 13:01
Donald (Russian official says IMF was informed of default action two days early but loaned anyway) ID#26793:
http://www.russiatoday.com:80/rtoday/business/news/98121605.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 12:54
RJ (..... PH in LA & Stuff .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

PH, reconsider, if you would, and stick about a bit.

Most folks here recall some pretty long words twixt PH and myself - most of them sharply at odds with the each other. Although I have been called to task on more than one occasion by this fellow, I have always found his arguments to be fair, and not without considerable merit.

On more than one occasion, PH has forced me to peer deeper into my own motivations and actions, and I have found these diggings more productive than a gaggle of agreeing posts showering accolades and good tidings. We do not agree about politics, nor do we agree about great swaths of economic theory, but I have found his posts well reasoned and thought provoking.

The fellow simply does not like the rancor into which this site sometime descends, but rancor is an inevitable ingredient in any discussion of opposing views regarding money, politics, and morality. With practice, one could keep this level of rancorous exchange within the bounds of good taste and polite observations. For the most part, PH has comported himself in this manner and ( an opinion I have held for some time ) , he is a valuable asset to this forum.

I must challenge PH's assertion that ANOTHER was run of this site. I still maintain that ANOTHER ran himself off this site, when his cover story, and his mystery proclamations began to dissolve into contradictory blather - all hot air and cutsie affected speech mannerisms, added up to one thing: Somebody wanted to sell a book and, in turn, sell an agenda which furthers the lining of pockets for the originators of this farce.

It has always been PH's chief complaint about me, that I speak in such harsh terms of this ANOTHER fellow. The argument went something like, Who cares what guise he comes to us under? The important thing is WHAT he has to say, not who he is. I never accepted this argument, fanatical as I am about learning the source of any information; words are useless unless one can judge the source. ANOTHER was not run off this site. Like Rush Limbaugh, who is afraid to take any call from anyone who is not a worshiping disciple, ANOTHER found the kitchen too hot for his half baked and wholly unsupportable and un-provable assertions regarding the gold market. Since these have all been proven wrong, or never come to pass, ANOTHER's credibility is shot for all time, best I can tell.

PH also expresses his disgust with the political process currently underway. He makes the grand mistake of trying to argue facts of the case. This is a wasted enterprise. The facts are as they are. Using the same set of facts, one set of folks thinks the Pres is a worm deserving of the most viscous impeachment. Others feel as if the poor Pres is being attacked by a bunch of rabid politicos run amuck. The two camps can never find grounds for agreement.

There is a reason that politics and religion are grouped together as subjects to avoid in any congenial gathering. Both require a healthy dose of faith to support beliefs that cannot otherwise be empirically proven. One does not change a belief based on faith because of the logical arguments of others. The logic may be flawless, but it is not logic that drives our beliefs. Feelings, supported by a bridgework of experience and lessons in morality, can never be argued away. Politics and religion occupy an inviolate space in our psyche. We will never change our minds because of what another says. Nor rarely at what another may do. This is just the way it is.

I just wish that folks would not resort to debating the facts of the case. This is the greatest waste of time that I can see. To get to the root of this mess we find ourselves in, read the following paragraphs and see the wisdom buried within:

Its all politics. Morality has nothing to do with it. The arguments against the president, logical as they sound, are nothing but a cover for a group of folks that will drag down this president by whatever means, fair or foul. This is why the polls are meaningless. Forget the facts, folks, we've made up our minds. This is PURE politics and the Republicans will chainsaw this president into bits if they have a chance. Why? Because they hate him. They hate everything this arrogant, smarmy, lying, cheating, twofaced bastard stands for - or more accurately does not stand for. The president was stupid enough to hand them the ammunition and now the opposition is using that ordinance with gleeful abandon.

The other side of the isle ( the left one ) is filled with lying, hypocritical, quick talking apologists who try to claim the moral high ground, but are brought down by the myriad of contradictions contained in the ever more complicated and convoluted explanations of how and why this is all wrong. These gutless wonders, bend the words of the law to suit their agenda. They lie in the most egregious manner conceivable. They will argue a point of high moral honor in regards to this president, but cannot reconcile their lofty arguments with their past protestations regarding Anita Hill and others. The exact same folks used some smut talk and hairs on Coke cans to deny a man a lifetime appointment to the highest court in the land. They now say sex in the workplace, twixt a boss and employee, does not make the man unfit for the job. This is because the man in question agrees with them politically. Then they say that lying is not lying when it comes to sex. A new caveat must now be inserted into the oath of office and the oath of honesty in which one must uphold the constitution or tell the whole truth only when this does not involve sex. OK.

I have zero respect for any Democrat defending this worm. They descend to the level of OJ supporters in my book. I have zero respect for the Republicans, who cannot admit that this is a hatchet job, pure and simple. They have wanted this guy's testicles on a platter since day one and have been holding the mallet high and ready for too long to let it do anything but fall under its own weight and smash what balls it may. The Dems will subvert the constitution an twist the intent of laws to further their fractured logic. The GOP is arrogantly sailing the ship of state thought treacherous and reef riddled waters with a recklessness that will come home to haunt them.

There are no winners here. I may be rightly counted as an anti-Clintonite. I never bought into this guy's crap from the first. But the man has done little harm to this country, and my personal feelings cannot alter the fact that I have seen worse presidents in my lifetime. But do not cast me in the GOP baptismal pond, for the high and mighty posturing by these folks makes them into liars just like the accused.

This whole thing is about getting the other guy. It is the Republicans with the wooden stake in their hands this time. Before it was the Dems, as it is destined to be once again. This is the system we have chosen. A two party adversarial government body, insures that we never swing too far to either end of the spectrum, and if we must have an occasional political bloodbath to demonstrate this genius of this type of government, so be it. These things are needed every generation - to clean out the bad blood and to cull the weak from the flock.

I will not argue the political thingy with folks here. If they are in government, they are crooks, better suited to pick our pockets than to lift our worth. This is axiomatic. The very people who want these jobs ( Senator, Congressmen, President ) are those who are the LEAST suited to lead. Their very ambition destroys any good they could do. All morals and conduct of daily affairs will always subordinate themselves to the need and burning desire for more power over people. There is ZERO difference between the GOP and the Dems. They are all beneath any semblance of honor. They all deserve our scorn an derision.

And we all deserve what they give us, we elected them.

The answer then - is to never vote.

When you vote for them, you only encourage them.

If they want the job, they don't deserve it

This - sadly - is the way things are.

Anyway, this post started out in support of PH in LA. While I do not agree with much of what he says, I like the way he says it, and consider him an asset to this forum.

OK

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 12:52
Tantalus (Just watched James Carville & Mary Mattelin-Carville on Meet the Press) ID#317211:
LOL

My God. If those two can sustain a marriage, there may yet be hope for
Dem's & Rep's to properly govern the USofA.

If ya can't take a joke, then f*ck ya. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 12:52
ravenfire (the history of money) ID#365190:
the oldest form of money. silver.

http://www.discover.com/oct_issue/cradle.html

hmmmm......

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 12:40
JP (We are in a confirmed Dow Theory Bear Market) ID#249232:
Copyright © 1998 JP/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
We are in a primary bear market which is not worked off by any means. The primary trend downwards ( with bear rallies ) could last well into the 2000-2002 time frame.
New values for gold and silver:
With 5000 years of monetary value behind it, there is no uncertainty about gold and silver. Both are scarce and valuable metals, and they will continue to be that way. The people of the world have always attached a great value to gold and silver, and I doubt that it will ever changed. There may be temporary periods of doubt and uncertainty about them among the public, and when that happens, the confusion of it all leads to a depression and the downfall of the political leaders who sponsored that confusion. That is where we are now. When gold and silver go up in terms of the currencies of the world, then the first step towards the next period of prosperity has been taken. Right now, silver is down, and gold is being pushed around as though it has no value. That may last until the end of Dec 98 as year end tax selling to establish losses takes place. Therefore, I feel that we have about 2 more weeks to sweat our losses in gold and silover stocks. During 1999,the upmove in these mining shares ( gold and silvers ) should begin. I look for it to be very slow, at first, and to gain momentum in the 2000-2002. It has been my contention all along that a devasting depression will be needed to change the politicians and central bankers minds regarding US gold backed dollar. ONLY a major depression will force our politicians to relate our money to gold. We are headed that way.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 12:29
CC (EJ) ID#340286:
Are you sure your $400T figure for US equity, bons and other financial assets is right.. A 1000% increas from $4T would be $40T or so.

How about worlwide financial assets. Still extremely huge vs the small belwo $1B total gold assets.

IOW, I agree with you....there is now way we can loose. Patience.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 12:29
ravenfire (impeachy light reading) ID#365190:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news2.cgi?T=bbco_baum.ht&s=343762100

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 12:25
ALBERICH (@ERLE: Thanks for your personal comment on my post.) ID#254112:
Copyright © 1998 ALBERICH/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I felt very flattered that your remembered how I used to sign my posts.

Yes, I learned a lot here at kitco, from these excellent posts provided by independent spirits, sharp thinkers and people, much more knowledgeable in many respects than I am. The most important thing which I learned to understand since I lurked here for the first time in January 1998 is the money character of gold and it's overwhelming importance for the financial markets. Even though things do not appear that way.
I was already a goldbug before I started to post here since decades and I was full of mistrust against the FED and the bankers who own it. But what wasn't clear to me was the fact that an economy and financial markets can only work in a fair and correct way, when currencies are tied to gold in a reliable way.

I'm still watching the gold hoard of the Nibelungen in the river Rhine and listen to the singing of the Loreley from the mountain above.

Alberich the Dwarf

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 12:13
ravenfire (trade sector going bananas) ID#365190:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_238000/238370.stm

hmmm..... train's a little late, but it's still coming.

Gollum - when's that Phoenix thingie of yours starting?

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 12:12
Isure (Into The Loving Hands of Kitco I Commit Myself) ID#421269:
Copyright © 1998 Isure/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

1. Sounds like Bill Buckler read Atlas Shrugged, a very good book, one that should be read by anyone with a brain, and that works for a living.

2. Anyone that is extremely angry over Clinton's impeachment is a politician, or making his living off sucking the blood from others. { same thing, isn't it ? }

3. PHinLA, it does not suprise me that you find honor in lying and cheating and believe it better to continue than to remove ones self with dignity. If you don't have honor, it is a lost concept and no amount of explaining will ever make it clear.

4. Bob Livingston, thank you sir, and may God help you make it through the pain that comes from telling the truth and doing that which is right. May God bless your house!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 12:11
Donald (Impeachment expected to have minor impact on stocks.) ID#26793:
http://nt.excite.com/news/r/981220/12/business-markets

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 12:10
Cueball (JD@) ID#351148:
Copyright © 1998 Cueball/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

John,

You have referred to those Kebbles as finding Au where previously there was thought to be

none, and I have been looking into this refactory stuff, and although much more

digging needs to be done, more and more I'm becoming convinced that if any single factor

can bring about permanently $250.00 gold or lower, it's here!

The SAF miners along with Mintek have been extremely secretive regarding their advances and

very few others except Newmont are ahead of the curve. So perhaps they didn't over pay.

and development ore from Turquoise Ridge.

Currently, Getchell processes 1,900 tons per day from the mill from the Getchell underground

mine and development ore from Turquoise Ridge.

http://www.northernminer.com/free/2.html

http://www.newmont.com/carlinb.htm#Carlin

new production is coming from complex refractory ores that require pretreatment before the

gold can be recovered.'

'For all its success, 1996 was a transitional year on the Carlin Trend. Surface deposits

of the easier to process oxide ores are being depleted and, increasingly, new

production is coming from complex refractory ores that require pretreatment before the

gold can be recovered. Gold produced from underground mines nearly tripled from

1995 to 306,800 ounces. Production through the refractory ore treatment plant, or

roaster, rose 52 percent to 540,000 ounces. The company also demonstrated the

commercial success of two patented processes for heap leaching low-grade refractory

ores using bio-oxidation and the direct application of ammonium thiosulfate.'

'Newmont's Carlin operation has become as complex as its ores.'

'During 1996, the company mined 242 million tons of rock — 142 tons for each ounce

of gold produced. Of that, 11 million tons of ore were milled, 42 million tons were

placed on leach pads and five million tons were stockpiled for future processing.'

'five million tons were stockpiled for future processing.

http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-23633


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 11:58
AUwolf (US cruise missile/Iran.....ooops) ID#254130:
Copyright © 1998 AUwolf/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
thr 036
iran-u.s.
swiss embassy: u.s. regrets landing of missile at khorramshahr
tehran, dec. 20, irna -- the united states has expressed regret over
landing of a stray cruise missile at iran's southern port city of
khorramshahr, the iranian foreign ministry quoted u.s. interest
section at swiss embassy in tehran as saying on sunday.
the swiss embassy said the u.s. had not intended to violate the
sovereignty of the islamic republic of iran and that the missile had
landed at khorramshahr accidentally.
coincident with the u.s. and british air strikes on baghdad, a
stray cruise missile landed at khorramshahr, southern iran thursday
night, destroying residential units located within a radius of 200
meters of the point hit by the missile. it caused no loss of life.
the iranian foreign ministry summoned the swiss ambassador to iran
rudolf weiersmuller who looks after the u.s. interests in iran as
well as the british charge d'affaires on thursday to protest at
landing of the missile.
the foreign ministry will follow up the case.
ss/rr
end
::irna 20/12/98 17:58

http://www.irna.com/newshtm/eng/29175826.htm

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 11:44
Donald (@EJ) ID#26793:
I don't follow the S&P but the purchasing power of gold has increased since July 16th as it relates to the Dow. It will increase further in the future although there will certainly be setbacks. History says that an ounce will by a greater amount of shares by a factor of 25 or more in the next 4 years.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 11:44
AUwolf (class action) ID#254130:
Copyright © 1998 AUwolf/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sellers of Bankers Trust Common Stock
and Call
Options and Purchasers of Put Options
During the Period Oct. 26, 1998 Through
Nov. 20,1998 ( BusinessWire )
A securities class action lawsuit was
commenced on November 25, 1998 in the United
States District Court for the Southern
District of New York on behalf of those
persons who
sold the common stock or call options or
purchased put options of Bankers Trust
Corporation during the period October
26, 1998 through November 20, 1998,
inclusive.

- Dec 17 5:04 PM EST


The complaint charges that the
defendants falsely denied that Deutsche
Bank and
Bankers Trust were engaged in takeover
discussions and negotiations during the
Class
Period in order to artificially depress
the price of Bankers Trust common stock
so that
Deutsche Bank could purchase Bankers
Trust at an artificially low price.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/981217/bernstein__2.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 11:36
ERLE (Astute commentary on Il Duce) ID#190411:
http://www.federal.com/dec14-98/Spectacle

I don't know if this will work, as it is from a pay site. The essays of Mr. Zehr are worth the cost of the site. ( low )

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 11:36
Goldteck (Dabchick) ID#431200:
Thanks

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 11:33
EJ (@Donald, BillinOregon, ERLE) ID#45173:
Donald,
Good point about buying power of gold. In your opinion, has the dollar price of a share of the S&P and an oz. of gold support the idea that the buying power of gold has increased?

BillinOregon,
Y2K may very well be the event that causes a panic to liquidity.

ERLE,
Gold will not go to $8000/oz. but it's going to try to get there. If the CBs are successful, it will not rise at all. But I wonder if the weapons of adding liquidity and selling gold will work in all cases.
-EJ


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 11:29
ERLE (Donald, another superior post.) ID#190411:
Does anyone know how to find the number of ADR stocks issued?
I can look up the total issue, but I need to know what the float is in the ADR market.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 11:27
Dabchick (Goldteck....At 13:49 yesterday you wrote....) ID#258195:
Copyright © 1998 Dabchick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Dabchick . Do you know an URL that publishes the Gold and Silver Lease Rates. Thanks
Goldteck: I don't know of any URL that publishes the Gold and Silver Lease Rates and as far as I know, nor does anyone else here at Kitco. That is why I agreed ( September ) to calculate them each weekday from data published in the Londan Financial Times. I post them each Tuesday to Friday at 04:00 Kitco time, and on Saturdays at 10:00 with the weekly summary. If anyone else knows of a URL please say so and I will stop posting them.
You can of course go to the World Gold Council site ( via the Kitco link ) but theirs are usually 7-10 days out of date, I believe. Regards...........Dabchick

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 11:24
Donald (Comments on the Fed meeting scheduled for Tuesday) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981220/z.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 11:17
ERLE (EJ) ID#190411:
Copyright © 1998 ERLE/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
There will never be anything resembling the 8000./oz. What I am banking on is the return to a free gold market that will allow the miner to make a profit on a well run operation.
Gloomy times are here again. There is no end to the negativism here. The gommints around the whirl are doing everything in their power to foment a gold bull. We should look to the recent past to get a bearing on the importance of a metal money system.
This impeachment stuff has ignited a small interest in constitutional law. A very few will carry forward to a renewed commitment of liberty.
During this time of unsettling politcal manovouer, the forces of liberty will advance.
Who knows, Maybe Ron Paul will force an audit of the Federal Reserve. Or, an inventory of Ft. Knox.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 11:15
BillinOregon (EJ) ID#262242:
Excellent post EJ. I think the hot money will come home to roost next year as the reality of Y2K sets in.

Can't go to church this morning, we are snowed in here. Went to a Christmas party in town last night and barely made it home, it was snowing hard. Maybe its time to visit my friends in N.Z. and Australia. Nick, is your wife a good cook ( smile )

Go gold and sunshine please please please come back.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 11:12
Donald (@EJ ) ID#26793:
Copyright © 1998 Donald/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You ask: But how can the money supply can be pumped up by nearly 20% in a single year while the price of gold stays constant and the price of oil falls?

I think the answer to this one is that the money pumping is going into the stock market, replacing hedge fund losses and going overseas to be used in countries where the locals do not wish to hold their own currencies. It does not impact U.S. prices of goods because of deflation of imported goods from stressed out countries.

Try not to focus on the price of gold, just notice that its purchasing power is increasing as the ounce buys more stocks, oil, clothing and food than before. In my example last week I noted that hogs sold for 9c a lb. on December 11th. That was the same price as in 1941. However an ounce of gold would purchase only 389 lbs. in 1941. Today it will purchase 3222 lbs.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 11:02
Goldteck (GOLD FIELDS (Nasdaq:GLDFY)) ID#431200:
Is it the S.A. company that is the second gold producer in the world?The shares are selling at 1 11/16 on Nasdaq.How many shares are issued ?What is the URL for the company ?Thanks. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=gldfy&d=v1

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 10:57
AUwolf (More Thrills, Spills On Wall Street In 1999) ID#254130:
Copyright © 1998 AUwolf/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
By Pierre Belec

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Keep those safety belts on. There are more thrills and spills for
Wall Street in 1999.

Some experts even say it will be tougher to make money in the stock market next year
but the Federal Reserve could stack the deck in favor of the bulls if it keeps chopping
away at interest rates....

...``My guess is that it will be tougher to make money in the market in the latter part of 1999
but the first half should bring a rally in the Dow probably to the 10,000 mark by April,'' he
said
Corporate earnings are expected to shrink, but investors won't care much about eroding
earnings......

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19981220/bs/stocks_1077.html

ok, where's that big red button that says, ''don't push''


8' ) -~

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 10:52
APH (P.S.) ID#255226:
Happy Holidays Everyone, May we all prosper in the New Year!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 10:49
APH (Trading - week ahead) ID#255226:
Copyright © 1998 APH/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Short week, thin markets, more of the same.

SnP should dip lower going into Xmas eve after which the rally should resume to the 1250 area.

XAU hasn't performed well these last couple of days. But it has held the 65 area, any further weakness look for 59.00- 58.50.

Feb. Gold - The metals could hit their bottom price any where in this area before year end target still remains 277-272 Feb.

Mar. Silver - Silver failed to close outside of the weekly down channel line. Not has likely as it was a couple weeks ago but the ideal target remains 4.40-4.35.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 10:37
Goldteck (Why has the bottom fallen out of the oil market?) ID#431200:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-12/20/046l-122098-idx.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 10:37
EJ (Theory of gold as market-based monetary asset) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The dollar price of gold and the demand for dollars are negatively covariant ( Jude W.'s thesis ) . A deficit in the money supply shows up as depressed gold ( and oil ) prices.

But how can the money supply can be pumped up by nearly 20% in a single year while the price of gold stays constant and the price of oil falls?

The dollar price of oil is now more than usually effected by demand. Normally, demand plays a smaller role in determining the price of oil than the demand for dollars versus the money supply, i.e., the actions of CBs. However, the rapid fall in demand in Asia has pushed the price of oil down. So let's focus on gold.

The Fed has this year taken action to increase dollar liquidity, issuing more dollars as debt at lower interest rates. A portion of this hot money goes into the equities markets rather than less risky, lower return markets because the perceived risk/return ratio of the equities markets has been skewed by the continuous, automatic and unqualified influx of capital from 401K plans and foreign investment. Money is going into financial assets rather than the real economy, thus the prices of goods and services continues to be stable.

Let's say there is an event that causes another more serious financial panic to liquidity than we had this past summer, one that's followed by a panic from dollar denominated paper ( cash, bonds, equities, etc. ) into hard assets. Alan Greenspan has indicated that in this event, the CBs will use their gold reserves to battle it out with the market to keep the price of gold down to prevent newly created liquidity, intended to prevent a credit crunch and forstall escalating financial panic, from showing up as higher gold prices. If the banks have 1/3 of the gold market to fight with, how much paper will be pushing against them by the market from the other side? Who is likely to win?

My objective here is to get a sense of how well armed are the two sides, the CB gold sellers versus the market of paper sellers.

- In 1971, when the US went off the gold standard, there were about 90,000 metric tons of gold in the world and $4T dollars in financial instruments ( cash, bonds, equities, etc. ) .

- In 1971, nearly half of the gold ( 40,000 metric tons ) were and are still held as reserves by CBs.

- In 1998, there are about 120,000 metric tons of gold in the world and $400T dollars in financial instruments ( cash, bonds, equities, etc. ) .

- CBs now hold only 1/3 of all the gold.

- At current gold prices ( $289 per oz. ) , $700B dollars buys all of the gold in the world.

- Assume that the quantity of dollars has increased 1000% since 1971, from $4T to $400T in 1998.

- Assume that in a panic to hard assets, all of the dollars held as finincial instruments is liquidated. The increase in the money supply thus created will cause the dollar price of gold to attempt to rise to reach an equilibrium ratio between the price of gold and the quantity of dollars that existed in 1971. That means a gold price of, say, around $8,000 per oz.

- The CBs have 40,000 metric tons, or $233B worth of gold, to sell to hold the price of gold down that is attempting to rise toward $8,000/oz. from the liquidation of $396T dollar-based paper assets.

Even if I'm off by an order of magnitude, it's hard to imagine how the CBs can succeed with this.

Thoughts?

-EJ

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 10:34
Selby (The Privateer) ID#286230:
Copyright © 1998 Selby/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Here is the theme for your next editorial:

It is equally certain that no government
can run an economy in which Gold is the medium of exchange. If
you want a reason why the price of Gold has failed to move up
throughout the crisis which began in the middle of 1997, this is the one.

An interesting -but as yet unexplored view on the current impeachment entertainment -is the complaint that the vote is on purely political lines. As I understand the US constitution it did not anticipate the development of a 2 party system and is more in tune with the politicians voting their conscience. The US Constitution is frozen in time as they say and can not adapt to changing times--unlike the English system, for example,which has moved a long way from 1776. I never fully appreciated this view until this week.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 10:13
ERLE (@Retearivs) ID#190411:
I liked your comments.
Don't watch the political shows, as they will only vex you.
BTW, What channel is Teletubbies on? What's that anyway?

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 10:08
Tantalus (@PH in LA - please return when you're feeling better) ID#317211:
Copyright © 1998 Tantalus/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All politics aside, your takes on gold and the markets are well considered here, and potshots at WJC are not directed at you in
any way.
That being said, remember that the Ken Starrs' office was created
by the Democratic controlled Congress when they couldn't lay hands
on the presidency. The political torture dealt to the likes of
John Tower, Clarence Thomas, Richard Nixon, Robert Bork and Newt
Gingrich have now come full circle as the Republicans have now
used these same tactics on Tom Foley and now Bill Clinton.

Nobody I've ever met thought that politicians were nice people.
Members of both parties have only one thing in common -
The hunger for power...plain and simple.
Do not feel sorry for Bill Clinton. Feel sorry for his daughter.
There are millions of wanna be Napoleons roaming the corridors of
power, and he can be replaced easily. Besides, the Republicans cannot
get the necessary 2/3 votes in the senate to actually remove him
from office.

Do not confuse political cannabalism with our search for what is true
and decent here, and please come back when you're feeling better.
My prescription for you is a large bounce upwards in the PM's.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 10:06
Retearivs (Plain talk) ID#413175:
Copyright © 1998 Retearivs/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved


JD, ahh, is it true that a certain, ahh, 'head' of state has no plans to visit the U. of S.A?

===

The observation about the I.Q. of Ph.D. and M.D. holders stuck a note! How many others here have concluded that their M.D. is not overly bright? How many have had to do their own detailed medical reading out of frustration?

===

A recent comment and its responses cover old ground. The board is plenty quiet, let's try something out.

Readers of this list newly arrived must understand that they are not engaged in debate with the arm bending habitués of the local beer parlor. ( Mind you, we will admit of the occasional exception! )

The It Depends where One Stands department. Here's a nutshell analysis; remember now, it depends where one stands. For many of us here, Government is a convoluted and expensive mechanism developed by those who won't get off their behinds to read, think, work, invest and manage resources to steal for themselves the assets earned by those who do. After construction, the ugly machinery is carefully and solemnly draped. It is then consecrated by calling it laws.

Any country at any stage of its development relies on the smart, able, producing members of its society. It cannot survive, let along advance, without them. One type of producer in society is the investor and that's what we are here. The production of a society's investors is working out the best allocation of society's resources. Investors put society's resources into the most productive enterprises so that those resources produce for society and are not squandered. Producers, including investors, must be rewarded or they won't produce.

Unthinking observers of some of the debate here see avarice in discussion of the endless assaults on investors by government. It is not avarice but the very survival of western society that is at stake. If a society is to survive, the free riders cannot be allowed to pile on endlessly; the production of the producers will, beyond a certain loading, taper off. As is true of anyone, they won't work ( take investors' risks ) for nothing. We are crossing that point of inflection right now in North America and /that/ is what such debate here centres upon, not greed.

Those of us struggling under this ever growing burden imposed by losers are about fed up. Free riders have discovered that by declaring, /de novo/, that something is an obligation of The Government or, even better, a right that they can obtain yet another free ride.

The experiment of making The Government responsible for everything has been made time and again and it doesn't work. It is that prospect that many here see approaching. Some on this board have personal experience of the matter.

===

Now, what to watch this morning, CNBC, Bloomberg or Teletubbies?



Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 10:04
ERLE (@ALBERICH) ID#190411:
Since you first posted on this forum you have undergone a remarkable change. I do believe that you a going native on Kitco.
I never went for the crap Give me your tired and huddled masses, that was plastered over the neat gift from the French.
I'll just welcome seekers of liberty as you, Mr. Dwarf.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 10:00
Pookie@Aussi (More to Entitlement) ID#221124:
Copyright © 1998 Pookie@Aussi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
First, the paragraph starting with InsAllah God willing sould continue ... we will learn from the experience.

Just to show you how far things have progressed here. Recently a bikie get arrested for having AUD 400,000 cash in his possession when stopped by police for a routine check, for he felt under no obligation to tell the police as to where the money was coming from. This is a total reversal of the legal principle Innocent until proven guilty The bikie might end up having to prove his innocence!!!!! I let you ponder the impications of this.

Bill Buckler's article can be found here:

http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html , known as The Privateer's Gold Pages

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 09:56
tolerant1 (ALBERICH, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...) ID#20359:
http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 09:53
tolerant1 (Namaste' and a giant Island that is Long gulp and a puff to all those at Kitco that do) ID#20359:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
not candy coat the verbal feces of the mass media, Clintler and the remaining social re-modelers of our times. Clintler will be solely responsible as the puppet leader of his comrades for the resurrection of bigotry taking on many forms in the United States and on a global level.

There will be bloodshed and hatred and this dirtbag will never be able to wash his hands. I have nothing but contempt for this coward hypocrite, his removal from office will not undo the damage already inflicted, but it is a start.

Lawlessness in any form is the enemy of freedom.

Clintler in any form is the enemy of freedom.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 09:52
ALBERICH (Why is the US in Decline?) ID#254112:
Copyright © 1998 ALBERICH/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I didn't have a chance to read Bill Buckler's comments. But it sounds extremely interesting. Can somebody point me to it?

I'm convinced that the US's decline has a lot to do with the total power which the international financial oligarchy has achieved to obtain here in the US. What was the method to obtain this totalitarian power?

It started on the 23rd of December 1913, almost exactly 85 years ago, when the FED was installed by private international bankers. They obtained the monopoly to create money. Sixty years later they were successful in detatching the dollar completely from the gold standard.

Since then, the US has a currency totally backed by thin air. The enormous advantages for the financial oligarchy are just immesurable.
They completely dominate the media, Hollywood, almost all politicians are their assets. They run the show. They hide the genocidal bombing of Iraq and the killing of a quarter million of Iraqi children through the economic sanctions behind the curtain of a dirty impeachement theater against a rat of a president. They are in total control.

The means to bring America down has a tremendous lot to do with the elimination of gold. This gives total power to the financial oligarchy and their intent to destroy all cultures around the globe and the economic welfare of all peoples.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 09:39
Charleston Gold Bug (The Nitty Gritty) ID#344389:
I nituce a total lack of mention
of where gold is headed. So here goes.
I think it will spike down to $285
cash Monday. The XAU will take out
support in the 64 area and turn down
to 60. This is where it gets hard.
IF this does not hold, I believe
both gold and the XAU could go
much lower. If this happens the
major stock indexes will soon follow
gold down in a repeat performaance
of August. AG will then come to the
rescue again with more rate cuts.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 09:21
tolerant1 (Spock, it is clear that you know nothing about gold. It would be a card carrying simpleton) ID#20359:
whose garbled ramblings could possibly consider gold without politics. Your attempt to separate the two is evidence enough. What is the registration number on your card.


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 09:19
BUFFORD (SIlver standard Shareholders any new s on lien against Rusians) ID#263226:
Has anyone read any news on the lien against the Rusian partner
Geolog. It was my understanding that some type of legal decision was pending in the Canadian courts in mid December. I understood that Geolog had product at a Canadian smelter or refinery and that the
undpaid loan would be a lien agaist the product. SO far I've been
unable to get a responcse from SSO management

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 09:12
Pookie@Aussi (Bill Buckler's recent article) ID#221124:
Copyright © 1998 Pookie@Aussi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Ok, I'm a subscriber to The Privateer so I might be a bit too supportive of Bill's philosophy. Anyway, I agree with his and John Disney's comments on this Entitlement belief system. To Spock, in theory it sounds all nice with entitlement to healthcare, education etc., however as mentioned already, if we allow the state to provide it then we have to pay for it. Now, here in Australia the government in increasingly treating us as children, after introducing this Entitlement crap ( excuse my using the WC's inventer's name in vain ) in the late seventies or so. The antismoking laws are being driven to extrems ( I am currently a non smoker, never smoked more than a few of the stuff a day and fortunately never got addicted to it ) . The reason for this as being pointed out by the government is that it costs the country zillions of dollars to supply health benefits to smokers. They conveniently neglet to inform us that smokers pay more than their fair share in taxes for cigarettes. I believe cigarettes here are amongst the most expensive in the world!

I could go on and on. The problem is that by allowing the government to look after us we are giving our sovereign right to privacy, property and individual choice of how we enter heavenly kingdom, or hell as the case might be, away. We are allowing them infact to legally steal our mony even before we see it. I am convienced that governments all over the world have totally grown out of control. I find it is totally unacceptable to be told how we conduct our life. As I mentioned some time ago, her in Aussiland you are compelled to wear a bicycle helmet, for your own good, even on an island holiday resort where no private cars are permitted. Like in the good old US, all sort of government intrusion into the private lives of the citizens have been enacted, anti everything laws, of course only for your own good, government knows best! I AM SICK AND TIRED OF THIS NANNY STATE APPROACH AND CAN'T WAIT FOR IT'S DEMISE. If the collapse of the former Soviet Union is anything to go by you, Spock, you had better learn the virtue of self reliance. This is what I plan to teach my children. That with rights comes responsibility, that everyone is entitled to their own foolishnes as long as one takes responsibilty for their own actions rather then trying to blame someone else for it. Legal Drinking Age, what a lot of BS. As soon as my kids, at the age of three, asked to try my beer, I let them have a sip, the boy liked it, the girl didn't.
The biggest problem with employing former East Germans according to employers in the West is that they work well etc., but they can't think for themselves. The current problems in Russia are a direct result of the socialist experiment. InsAllah, God Willing.

Spock, maybe you should read The Animal Farm, by George Orwell, you might reconsider your attacks on Bill Buckler. Maybe you ought to have a chat with people who lived in the former communists countries, quite an eyeopener!

The above is of course not intended to offend or attack anyone, just an expression of my own thoughts.

Pookie

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 09:08
ravenfire (JD @ McDonald's Big Mac index) ID#365190:
in Malaysia, not only is the Big Mac priced at ... hmm ... your figure might be outdated ... since the Ringgit is now 3.8 to the US$ instead of 2.5 ... I'll personally go and check the price at a local McD's one of these days and tell ya.

the thing I originally wanted to say was that, in Malaysia, for some weird reason, McDonald's also sells fried chicken. ... can anyone say KFC? hehe...

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 08:38
TYoung (Dear uncle Al.....) ID#317193:
Copyright © 1998 TYoung/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Dear AG:

Uncle, I know that you know what I don't know about what is realy going on in the world financial markets. However, the holidays are here and I was wondering about my present. The FOMC meets this Tuesday and I need to borrow a little more US dollars. Are you folk going to lower again? TIA

Your INDEBTED nephew and friend. Tom

Dear Tom:

Nephew, I am sorry to report that what I know that you do not know can not be disclosed but what I do know is that what I know is that I do not know enough to know what impact raising or lowering rates next week will have on the world financial environment.

The Committee plans to weigh all the data and then call upon me to decide what course of action to take. I have an ingenious plan...I will flip a coin ( gold ) and action will be taken as follows: HEADS...lower rates, discount and fed funds by 50 basis points... TAILS...raise both rates by 50 basis points...

If, perchance, I flip the coin and it is taken in mid-air by one of the members...then I will resign for if any of these fools knows the true value of gold all is lost. The foolish American public would not be far behind.

Al

PS...thanks for gift...Amazon.Com stock is very valueable...one share almost equals one ounce of gold. Hope you don't mind my exchanging your gift.


Furhter correspondence will be posted in due course.

Tom

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 08:15
STUDIO.R (@JOhn Disney........) ID#119358:
My continued appreciation for the posting of your analysis of the mining stocks........especially the RSA's. Muchas garcias ( cabo spelling ) ! y Feleeeeeeeez Navidad ( jose feliciano ) ...!!!!!
Awaaaaaay to da' ranchO for an early Christmas celebration with mi mama y mi familia....! we're having ( real ) hickory smoked ham and BBQ ribs!!!.......we have found that turkey makes you phart. teehee. HO YO YO YO!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 07:47
STUDIO.R (@evidence of the existence of a higher form of life...........) ID#119358:
The Omnipotentate Earl.O@22:51 Saturday. Earl, you got mo' beans than Van Camps, yessir!!! A Gulp...A Puff to YA!!! y all the Earl.O's....

Referencing the 70% approval rating of clitton.......the red-faced ( a reflection of the shame and anger he has brought forth in the ) people of Oklahoma have been polled...and to noOne's surprise........71% or our simple electorate have offered to shoot the lousy summabitch. I guess that's why I live here.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 07:30
John Disney (taking the rest of the day off..) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The argument about right to health education etc is
really absurd IMHO particularly .. in the US .. The US
has about 5 % unemployment .. so it takes about 30 %
of the income of the people who are employed in order
to take care of the 5 % who are not .. all to
prevent what a recent poster calls social darwinism.
.. perhaps some of this RIGHT TO EDUCATION should
have been applied in the area of simple arithmatic ..
... IF the government did NOT confiscate peoples
wealth .. they would have plently of funds to
provide charity and we would have a more caring
compassionate society instead of one based on
confiscation non existant RIGHTS entitlements quotas
victimhood political correctness and self rightousness.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 07:15
John Disney (amazing how we agree ...) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
For me to reply honestly to your last post would be
extremely rude.
****************************************************
Dont hold back just for little old me
*****************************************************
Suffice to say that there seems to be a genuine lack
of human compassion in the right wing of politics.
*****************************************************
This is not about compassion .. its about
confiscation .. you know .. doing good works with
somebody else's money .. somehow that does not
impress me .. suffice to say there seems to be
a genuine lack of honesty in the left wing of politics
********************************************************
Social darwinism is not my idea of a rewarding
society in which to live.
*****************************************************
without Darwinisn .. we'd still be neanderthals ..
.. I guess you just dont like progress ..

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 07:09
sharefin (India's Central Bank Extends Compliance Deadline to March 30) ID#284255:
http://www.expressindia.com/fe/daily/19981218/35255274.html

Slip sliding away - mud slim slime & the blue horizons?

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 06:58
sharefin (Canaberra) ID#284255:
-
If he's only 1/2 right we'll still be in the doo-doo
And it'll be higher than Aurator's gumby's.

My brother who's a train buff was just at a conference in Sydney.
One of the speakers there stated that the coming oil debacle because of Y2k,
Will have far greater impact and make Y2k look like a little blip.

Recently spoke to the local Labour member
Who thought that it was being taken care of.
Absolutely no knowledge and was a little shaken when I left.

Oh well, back to the bottle.
Stinking hot weather here and humid to boot.
Gotta replace those body fluids.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 06:54
Spock (P.S. John Disney) ID#210114:
For me to reply honestly to your last post would be extremely rude.

Suffice to say that there seems to be a genuine lack of human compassion in the right wing of politics.

Social darwinism is not my idea of a rewarding society in which to live.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 06:51
Spock (Beaming Up Now......) ID#210114:
Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 06:50
John Disney (glad we see eye to eye ..) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
For Spock ..
lets go point by point ..

Nothing to do with WJC. He's ot my President.
********************************************
Nor Mine
**********************************************
I just think its ridiculous to argue that the US is in
decline because ti doesn't have a gold standard.
*************************************************
Righto .. the WORLD is in decline for that reason
****************************************************
Oh yes and there is such a thing as the right o
health, and the right to a decent education.
*****************************************************
who says ? you also have the right to get sick
and the right to be stupid .. that doesnt mean someone
else must pay for it ..
****************************************************
If that has to be funded by the state, then so be it.
There is no-one else who has the resources to do it.
*****************************************************
The State HAS NO FUNDS other than what they steal
from their citizens .. I am not responsible for
YOUR health nor you for mine nor would I want you
to be .. Stuff the state..

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 06:39
John Disney (Viva Savimbi ..) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
.. Dos Santos of Angola after announcing with great
fanfare that Unita's base in the cetral highlands at
Bailundo had fallen .. had to admit on Saturday that
three Government regiments had been defeated by Unita
in the assault.
Unita captured 30 armourmed vehicles along with the
regimental commander of the 19th mechanized infantry
unit. The government also lost 2 attack aircraft.
The Government has had to withdraw one battalion from
Congo where they were assisting fat boy Kabila in
his fight with the tutzi led rebels ..
.. sources say South African mercenaries are
involved on both sides.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 06:25
Spock (John Disney) ID#210114:
Nothing to do with WJC. He's ot my President.

I just think its ridiculous to argue that the US is in decline because ti doesn't have a gold standard.

Oh yes and there is such a thing as the right o health, and the right to a decent education. If that has to be funded by the state, then so be it. There is no-one else who has the resources to do it.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 06:22
nuggets (bang on) ID#386129:
..the nuts squirrel

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 06:18
John Disney (look on the bright side of life ) ID#24135:
.. for Spock ..
I see no flaws .. what flaws ? I think you're
in a bad moood because WJC was peached .. am I
mistaken
Don be a meanie .. mr paganini

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 06:12
John Disney ( The view from McDonald's) ID#24135:
.. Big Mac Index ..
US price is $2.63 ( basis ) ..
RSA price is $1.44 .. cheap and tasty burger

other spots ..
Israel $ 3.25
Germany $2.99
Japan $2.39
Russia $1.22
China $1.20
Malaysia $1.13 ( el cheapo )

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 06:08
Spock (John Disney) ID#210114:
Safely on the Bridge.

My point is that Mr William Buckler should stick to his excellent gold analysis rather than flawed political philosophy.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 06:02
Jack (McWatters Mining) ID#254288:
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

They sell for $0.75 Canadian, about 1/2 buck US
and I believe they will produce about 220,000
oz in 1999, ( 180,000 oz in 98 ) . The two
mines that they operate have produced over 10 million lifetime ounces.

PDG owns about 15% of its shares. They are getting less than $300 per oz. and not really losing bad and have cash flow.

They are starting to find gold at the surface at
the Sigma Mine, no stripping ratios given ( ? ) but mining costs were only $142 per oz. in this
open pit, so far in 1998. Underground the costs at Sigma are high, but they are improving the UG
operation and milling rate.

The new ore seems shallow, ( 40 meter ) see the
release. What they need is a good gold price, it might help their 15% holding in Dayton that they can sell and continue to improve their Canadian properties. Their Kiena Mine has always done well.
While the balance sheet is not pristine; whose
going to tangle with PDG who sold them the
properties in the first place. All IMHO

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981214/xi.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 05:58
John Disney (try a little ten-der-ness) ID#24135:
for spock ..
An uncalled for attack on willian buckler .. I am
shocked and dismayed by yoah outburst Mr Spock .. I
think you should be made to travel on the OUTSIDE of
spaceship ENTERPRISE .. beam him out..

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 05:56
Spock (aurator) ID#210114:
Touche

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 05:53
aurator (Who me? Political?) ID#255284:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Spock

More Churhillian quotes {most are authentic}

In the course of my life I have often had to eat my words, and I must confess that I have always found it a wholesome diet.

Although prepared for martyrdom, I preferred that it be postponed.

It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others
that have been tried.

I like pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.

We are all worms, but I do believe I am a Glow Worm..

I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an
enigma. {Vronsky might like to make a note}
Radio broadcast on October 1, 1939


Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.

Don't talk to me about Naval tradition. It's nothing but rum, sodomy, and the lash.
as reported by Sir Peter Gretton in Former Naval Person, 1968.

To jaw-jaw is better than to war-war.

Everybody has a right to pronounce foreign names as he chooses.


Land, which is a necessity of human existence, which is the original source of all wealth, which is strictly limited in extent, which is fixed in geographical position -- land, I say, differs from all other forms of property, and the immemorial customs of nearly every modern state have placed the tenure, transfer, and obligations of land in a wholly different category from other classes of property.

All men are created equal says the American Declaration of Independence. All men shall be kept equal say the Socialists.

Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance and the gospel of envy.

Socialism is contrary to human nature.

Government of the duds, by the duds and for the duds.

Capitalism is the unequal distribution of wealth. Socialism is the equal distribution of poverty.

If I were asked the difference between Socialism and Communism, I could only reply that the Socialist tries to lead us to disaster by foolish words and the Communist could try to drive us there by violent deeds.

Socialism assails the pre-eminence of the individual.

Socialism is inseparably interwoven with totalitarianism and the abject worship of the State... This state is to be the arch-employer, the arch-planer, the arch-administrator and ruler, and the arch-caucus-boss.

No Socialist system can be established without a political police.

and, finally....


The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes.
Winston Churchill

nytol©Teddo
Thud.


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 05:36
Spock (Winston Churchill; A true advocate for democracy) ID#210114:
The best argument against democracy is a five minute talk with the average voter.
- Winston Churchill

Winne also said:

Should Britain suffer a national disaster let us pray to god that he sends us a man with the strength of mind and will of an Adolf Hitler.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 05:29
aurator () ID#255284:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Skwirl
Good to see you back.
The best argument against democracy is a five minute talk with the average voter.
- Winston Churchill


Necessity is the excuse for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of the tyrant and the creed of the slave.
- William Pitt


Truth is always the strongest argument.
- Sophocles ( B.C. 495-406 )


Cutler Webster's Law: There are two sides to every argument, unless a person is personally involved, in which case there is only one.


The modern definition of 'racist' is someone who is winning an argument with a liberal.
- Peter Brimelow

When you argue with a fool, chances are he is doing just the same.
--Unknown

Never argue with people who buy ink by the gallon. --Tommy Lasorda

Weak arguments are often thrust before my path; but although they are most unsubstantial, it is not easy to destroy them. There is not a more difficult feat known than to cut through a cushion with a sword.
--Richard Whately


Any authentic work of art must start an argument between the artist and his audience. --Dame Rebecca West


Hedgehog
Hole in one!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 05:10
Squirrel (PH in LA (and ROR and those of similar ilk)) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
PH in LA also wrote yesterday at 21:08
discussion at Kitco has long degenerated into weak-minded political posturing by intellectual midgets.

That was bloody uncalled for!

To refer to Tolerant1 and others such as he {such as I} as intellectual midgets is a pretty haughty assumption on your part and means you are grossly ignorant of fellow Kitcoites or you have an IQ above 140 which puts you in the upper 1% of people in advanced countries and thus ONLY in the upper half of Kitcodom {I estimate that nearly all of us are likely above 130}. If the PH means you have a Doctorate then be it known that the IQ of PhDs, MDs, and JDs averages only 125. Whether we have a formal piece of paper or not - some of us have that IQ beat ( some of us by a fairly large amount ) .

P.S. Intellectualism is not entirely defined by IQ, it also includes breadth and depth of knowledge and experience - both of which many of us on this forum ALSO have considerable amounts of. So dear PH in LA and others of similar ilk - when you start tossing around insults to our intellect you best consider that you may be a midget among us!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 05:09
Spock (Fodder From Bill Buckler) ID#210114:
Copyright © 1998 Spock/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Now, for the first time, we will mention Gold. It is certain that Gold will re-appear as an official monetary asset with the introduction of the Euro in just over two weeks. It is equally certain that no government can run an economy in which Gold is the medium of exchange. If you want a reason why the price of Gold has failed to move up throughout the crisis which began in the middle of 1997, this is the one.

There is no reason that gold should re-appear as an official monetary assett. The Euro is not backed by gold. The ECB is merely holding 15% of its foreign exchange in gold. The US also holds a % of its foreign reserves in gold but no-one, especially not Bill Buckler, would suggest that the US$ is backed by gold. If you are right, why are the Swiss going to get rid of 1300 tonnes?

This is total fodder.

Bill, normally your pages are excellent, but this week's commentary is total fodder.

The US is not declining because of the welfare state ( not that it really has one ) or because it no longer has a gold standard.

The US is declining because all empires fall. Name me one empire in all of history that has survived. Its an historical process.

Get on the ball.

Give us good balanced reporting of the gold situation. You have always been excellent.

But keep your ridiculous right-wing arguments about government to yourself.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 05:07
Jack (I like Harmony ) ID#254288:

John Disney; they are a very impressive company.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 05:05
Nick@C (Gary North via finnie) ID#386245:
'Cheerful' Sunday/Monday reading anyone And I thought that 'I' was a doom and gloomer!! If Gary North is correct, we are all in heap-big doo doo.

http://www.reformed-theology.org/realitycheck/realitycheck.32.htm

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 04:52
John Disney ( you're right..) ID#24135:
squirrel ..
calling him a dirtbag is being
generous ..
Im sure T1 will agree..

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 04:49
John Disney (PDG) ID#24135:
for Jack ..
Okay .. just for info The numbers I gave for Harmony
were RESERVES at 25 mill or so .. their RESOURCE
number is a stunning 105 .. their present price
values these at less than $3/oz .. and Harmony
makes a PROFIT and the present gold price with little
hedging ..
I liked PDG's buy in to wes-areas south deep field..
but I still have a problem with the getchell merger..
I just dont get it .. they paid way too much IMHO

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 04:49
Squirrel (PH in LA and ROR if you are lurking) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
PH in LA wrote:
My own departure from this forum will not be missed. I can no longer participate honestly with posters incapable of posting without using the word dirtbag,... Or with posters who believe implicently any sludge dredged up by Matt Drudge.

Well....
1 ) I agree dirtbags was not appropriate. traitors is more accurate.
2 ) I agree Drudge is not implicently believable - only when his information is corroborated from various sources and in many ways {which is most of the time BTW}.
3 ) The House Judiciary Committee was remiss in its Articles of Impeachment - it missed some:
Treason,
Soliciting Bribes from Foreign Interests,
Racketeering,
Conspiracy to Commit Murder,
Subversion of the Constitution,
Dereliction of Duty
Fraud
Defamation of Character including Slander and Libel
Contributing to the Deliquency of Minors {by example}
Demoralization of America ( as to morals not morale

and lesser infractions that troops under his command are cashiered for:
Conduct Unbecoming An Officer ( as Commander in Chief )
Sexual Harrassment
Drug Trafficking ( and use )

To Tolerant1 and others of similar intellect and powers of observation:
What High Crimes and Misdemeanors did I miss?

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 04:33
sharefin (PH in LA) ID#284255:
Good for a last look?

http://www.cairns.net.au/~gunbury/ANOTHER21.html

There is always room for change and change we must.

What is happening is intolerable.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 04:31
Jack (IT'S A TOUGH WORLD FOR MINERS) ID#254288:
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

If a fiat lender isn't treatening forclosure, or some major insn't buying up a developing miner for a song ( At least PDG didn't attempt that with GGO ) ,
then a former claim hold initiates a suit, even after they sold a property years ago to before serious exploration took place.
Frivolous Complaint Filed Agaist Romarco
Romarco just sold these claims to Euro Nevada & Franco Nevada for approximately Can $33 million in tradable shares of the two companies.
http://www2.cdn-news.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?1998/12/17/1217026n or just go to http://www.cdn-news.com and type in Romarco at the proper prompt.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 04:29
EB (SDReeeeeer........) ID#187109:
I'll bet AGAINST mr ¥en ANYTIME .....bring it on ( . )
a.....w.........a............................y.......
Éß

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 04:18
sharefin (Supernaut) ID#284255:
You'll find all Gary North's Remnant letters online here:
http://www.reformed-theology.org/realitycheck/



Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 03:58
EB (back from a GOLDEN party.....) ID#187109:
Thank You John Disney......for your expertise..........

That is all.......

away................. ( oblivion ) .....................

Éß@this,thiskitco

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 03:57
Jack (John Disney) ID#254288:

Sorry for the misunderstanding, I meant resource.
Here's an article from the Northern Miner about the potential PDG/GGO merger. Old PDG is a mine maker and I wish them the best in Sud Afrika.
http://www.northernminer.com/free/2.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 03:52
aurator () ID#255284:
Auric™
Glad to pick up the tab. Forward me the bills!

Nick@C
No telling how long it takes to heal, when you get your nose out of joint. If ya nose what I mean.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 03:44
Jack (John Disney) ID#254288:

Sorry for the misunderstanding, I meant resource.
Here's an article from the Northern Miner about the potential PDG/GGO merger. Old PDG is a mine maker and I wish them the best in Sud Afrika.
http://www.northernminer.com/free/2.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 03:29
Nick@C (PH in LA) ID#386245:
Sad to see you go. Too bad you never learned to use your scroll button.

I hope that your nose heals and your spitten face forgives you.

You will be missing more than you will ever know.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 03:18
Selby (Bill and Tony) ID#286230:
http://www.nationalpost.com/commentary.asp?f=981219/2116847

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 03:15
Hedgehog (aurator....a hollow man there and a straw man here...) ID#39857:
its the only way to be......and it just goes to prove the Law keeps peekin in the wrong box.........yeh. thats if your into good causes or ankle biting the governments.
for a total blast from the future a must watch with the kiddies is Mars Attacks where Monica chews gum but really she is a Martian chewing on a substance releasing Nitrogen into the blood stream, and the Martians just hate anything that will fly and country and western kills them.
Sci-fi schlock........oh yehhhhhhhh

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 03:14
John Disney ( getchell ) ID#24135:
Jack
my info source getchell reserves is August
issue world Gold ( mining journal ) .. it gives
6.2 mill total end 1997 at 350 $/oz ..
.. 2/3 of this at turquoise ridge .. It also
shows them losing $.73/share in 1997 and
$0.08/share in the first quarter of 1998 ..
.. 20 mill oz RESERVES from 6.2 end 1997
seems a big ask .. what is your info source

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 03:13
Supernaut (THE RE-MONETIZATION OF THE PRECIOUS METALS) ID#288115:
Copyright © 1998 Supernaut/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The Subject of Dr. Gary North's December issue Remnant Review. It being the weekend and all I thought I would reproduce it here in it's entirety for the further enlightenment of my Kitco brothers and sisters. Of course with Dr. North's permission to do so. If you are offended by extremely long posts 'prepare to be offended' Here we go:

I have been thinking about this topic for 35 years. Always before, it was a strictly theoretical question for me. I asked myself, how could modern society move back to a monetary system based on the precious metals? What would be the steps? I could never get a clear mental picture of this. The reason for this, I now believe, is that I was thinking in the way a politician or bureaucrat does. How can I design a transition to a new system? Wrong question. The right question is this: How might the free market produce a new monetary system under market-driven pressures and incentives?

Franklin Sanders is a coin salesman and the editor of a hard-money tabloid, THE MONEYCHANGER. ( moneychanger@compuserve.com ) He is a self-taught economist, a Calvinist, an only partially reconstructed Southerner ( central Tennessee variety--these people are localists ) , and an opponent of fiat money. Recently, he wrote about the re-monetization of silver. That got me thinking again about this subject. There is money to be made, i.e., wealth to be transferred our way, if we think this matter through correctly and then act in terms of what we think.

Before I begin, I will survey briefly the reasons why the present monetary system is immoral, is in opposition to freedom, and is doomed. When we are to go through the fire, we need to know that it's worth it, not just in terms of capital appreciation but in terms of moral duty.

First, debasing the currency is immoral. It is a very old practice. The prophet Isaiah described it 2,750 years ago. Thy silver is become dross, thy wine mixed with water ( Isaiah 1:22 ) . It was in this enviroment--debased money, debased morality--that the nation's political rulers had become corrupt. Thy princes are rebellious, and companions of thieves: every one loveth gifts, and followeth after rewards: they judge not the fatherless, neither doth the cause of the widow come unto them ( v.23 ) He warned the nation of the wrath to come:

Therefore saith the Lord, the LORD of hosts, the mighty One of Israel, Ah, I will ease me of mine adversaries, and avenge me of mine enemies: And I will turn my hand upon thee, and purely purge away thy dross , and take away all thy tin: And I will restore thy judges as at the first, and thy counsellors as at the beginning: afterward thou shalt be called, The city of righteousness, the faithful city ( Isa. 1:24-26 )

To purge away tin from money was to burn off the cheap metal--a base metal--from the valuable silver. To purge away evil was to remove the imitation, paid-for justice from the court system. The imagery of fire was not accidental.

Kings had debased the coinage--actually bars. ( round coins came two centuries later in Greece. ) The smelters had added cheap metal to the liquid silver. The coins looked like pure silver, and they could be spent into circulation as silver. They could be spent at yesterday's prices--lower prices--because the public believed the coins were pure silver. But the added dross made it possible for the government to issue more money because the bars were not pure silver. It was cheaper to produce each unit because the cost of buying dross was less than the cost of buying silver. More money came into circulation, prices went up, and sellers of goods countered by debasing their products: wine mixed with water. Debased currency led to debased products. Prices may have stayed the same for some items despite the additional currency, but their quality went down.

Debased currency is the product of debased morality. It is the economics of theft through deception. It takes advantage of the public's initial willingness to trust the orginization that issued the money, e.g., the government.

Second, let's move from debased coins to the next level: debased paper money. It's even easier to fool people with counterfeit money than it is with debased coinage. People can't weigh the paper, the way they can weigh coins, to see if the paper is counterfeit. If the paper looks and feels like honest money, the public gets fooled into accepting it in exchange for goods and services.

Counterfeiting is immoral for the same reason that debasing the coinage is immoral. The counterfeiter increases the supply of money, thereby reducing the purchasing power of all the other currency units of the national currency he is counterfeiting. This reduction of value may be tiny per bill, but it is applied across the economy. It robs many people a little bit. If counterfeiting were legal, too many counterfeiters would get busy, and the currency unit would be debased. This is why one military strategy is to print counterfeit bills of the enemy and distribute it. This weakens the other nation's ability to fight. It undermines the purchasing power of money that is held by the rival public In the Civil War, the Union did this toward the end of the war, but the strategy was a failure. The fake bills were of such visibly higher quality than the debased bills of the Confederacy by 1864 that the public spotted the fakes too easily.

In the modern world, which has no metal-backed currencies, counterfeiting is a challenge to the existing, government-licensed counterfeiters. Private thieves extract wealth from all existing holders of money, so the official counterfeiters resist this strongly, since this reduces the return on their license to steal. It's also a violation of trademark law.

Third, we come to fractional reserve banking. The same criticisms apply. Fractional reserve banking, as a system, multiplies money. For every initial deposit of $100 in a system with a 10% reserve requirement, the banking system creates $900. A local bank takes in a deposit. The first deposit of $100 turns into $10 in reserve and a $90 new loan. That $90 loan becomes a $90 deposit in a bank ( the same or a different one; it doesn't matter ) . This becomes a $9 reserve and an $81 loan. The $81 loan becomes an $8.10 deposit and a $72.90 loan. Step by step, the $100 deposit becomes $900 in money.

Fractional reserve banking is counterfeiting on a massive scale.

To persuade people to make deposits, the bank tells the depositor that he can get his money out at any time, either by check, credit card, or cash. Then the bank lends out the money. The bank uses the reserves of all the depositors as a kind of slush fund to pay off those few depositors who withdraw their money on any day. Most of the time, this deception works. During bank runs, however, the entire banking system is threatened. Individual banks go bankrupt ( bank+rupture ) , and depositors in these banks lose their money.

Banks are BORROWED SHORT ( depositors can get their money on demand ) and LENT LONG ( borrowers do not have to pay back the bank it's principal for [x months or x years] ) What's morally wrong with this picture? The bank has established SIMULTANEOUS LEGAL TITLE for the same money for TWO PEOPLE: the depositor and the borrower. This is impossible; property can be owned by one person or a group operating as one person. ( Consider the rival concepts, mine and yours. Young children understand the concept of mine far more readily than yours. So do politicians. Bankers never get either concept straight. ) So, the bank's offer of dual ownership is fraudulent. It should therefore be made illegal. ( The clearest theoretical case against this form of fraud that I have ever read was published in the Spring 1998 issue of The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics: Against Fiduciary Media, by Hans Hermann Hoppe, a disciple of the late Murray Rothbard. )

For 35 years, I have followed Murray Rothbard and other defenders of 100% reserve banking. If a depositor lends his money to any lending agent ( broker ) , including a bank, he should not be allowed to get his money back until the loan matures. If his money is placed in a diversified loan fund, then the deadline for maturity of all the loans made by that fund must be the same day. The bank is lent short and borrowed short, or lent long and borrowed long. If a depositor wants the money back before the loan matures, he can take out a loan from the bank, with his deposit as collateral. This way, only one person has legal claim on any deposit at any time: the borrower during the term of the loan, and the depositor on the loan's day of maturity.

The other major benefit of this system is that the banking system cannot create money out of nothing. If reserves are 100%, then the bank can loan out only what it has taken in as deposits, and depositors cannot spend money into circulation which they have surrendered to the bank for a fixed time period. This would end bank runs. Depositors can't demand what they do not own.

With such a banking system, there could be no artificial economic booms or subsequent economic busts, which always follow fiat-money booms. On this point, see Ludwig von Mises, Human Action ( 1949 ) , chapter 20.

I am not opposed to banking. Bankers perform valuable services. They screen borrowers in terms of risk. They pool depositors' funds to diversify their loan portfolios. They enforce contracts, i.e., put pressure on borrowers to repay. All of these services would be performed by bankers in a 100% reserve system. What corrupts the system is a fraudulent offer: depositors are told that they can get their money on demand.

In 1999 and 2000, all over the world, depositors are going to receive an unforgettable personal lesson in the nature of fraudulent offers.

MONEY AND SOVEREIGNTY

As I said, for 35 years, I have manufactured hypothetical mental scenarios about how we could go to a 100% reserve banking system. I read Murray Rothbard's materpiece, Man, Economy and State ( 1962 ) , in the summer of 1963. The basics of chapter 10, on money, have been in my mind ever since.

Before we begin, let me get one thing perfectly clear: I am NOT an advocate of the gold standard. A gold standard presumes that some government guarantees a nation's monetary standard. The State can safely guarantee only one thing monetarily in the long run: debased State coinage. Its silver will become dross. So will its gold. Count on it. The temptation to debase the currency almost always wins. There is only one major exception in man's history: the Byzantine empire's gold bezant, which lasted for eight centuries. The odds are against us if we allow the politicians to control our money.

The State can and must enforce private contracts. If company A issues a gold coin, and says that it is .995% gold, one troy ounce, then it must be held legally accountable. Its coins must meet or exceed this standard.

If national government, as the final arbiter of contracts in the courts, would authorize the use of some kind of certification mark for private coinage companies to use, this would be legitimate. Standards would be public, which would open the minting market to all comers--no government monoplies. The government would not produce the coins; it would only authenticate a coin as being the weight and fineness that is stamped on the coin. Instead of filling the courts with lawsuits over this or that coin after the fact, the government would authenticate coins in advance. This would increase their acceptance.

What else should the State be allowed to do to control money? It can declare what kind of coinage it requires for its collection of taxes. Anything else? No. We must keep governments out of the money business. Control over the issuing of money is a mark of State sovereignty that should be repealed. ( As John Wayne's character used to say, That'll be the day! )

A great book on the Roman Empire's use of its coinage to promote the divinity of the emperors is Ethelbert Stauffer's Christ and the Caesars ( Westminster Press, 1955 ) . Stauffer traces the fall of pagan Rome by tracing its progressively debased coins. It was no accident that during the Jewish revolt known as Bar Kochba's rebellion, 133-35, the Jews issued coins without any depiction of a man. They well understood two things: man's lust for self-divinization and Rome's propaganda tool, i.e., its coinage.

THE END OF FRACTIONAL RESERVE BANKING

There is no money center bank on earth that is compliant. None has advanced to the testing stage. Final testing takes 40% to 70% of a y2k repair project: seeing if the repaired system works. It never does. Programmers must go back and fix code again. Then they must test again. And so on.

The major U.S. banks started on their repairs no earlier than 1995. Most began in 1996. It is clear that no money center bank will meet the deadline. The world banking system, if it survives the bank runs of 1999, will go into 2000 with its computers messed up.

Think of one word: CHECKS. What happens to the means of payment if checks won't clear? It means the reconstruction of civil government above the county level--and I mean very small counties. Governments have bet the farm on being able to get paid by check, and to pay by check. That's why the great revolution is less than 13 months away. The governments have bet everything on the banking system. The banking system will not get compliant. Unless it can switch to manual operations overnight in 2000, it will not survive.

All over the world, governments will collapse. So will economies. The only ways around this collapse are these: ( 1 ) find a silver bullet for y2k that every bank will adopt, in every major country; ( 2 ) switch, worldwide, back to pen and paper entries. I argue that neither is possible. You must decide.

A minority of depositors will see this in 1999. What percentage? I do not know. What I do know is this: in the United States, currency held in reserve by banks constitutes 1.7% of their deposits. There is also FDIC bank insurance, which constitutes 1.25% of deposits of $100,000 or less--a statistic which has remained fairly constant for at least two decades. These FDIC reserves are held in the form of U.S. government debt.

It is clear that the percentage of skeptical depositors need not be high to produce a run on the banks that will force the system to renege on its promise to redeem all deposits on demand. The banks will ration currency.

When that happens, it will alert millions of depositors to the looming y2k crisis. At that point, saving will stop and panic credit card spending will begin. People will start looking for items such as wood burning cook stoves, diesel power generators, and other items that are already almost unobtainable today. They will start buying food supplies. They will cease lending money for 30 years or even 30 months. Maybe for 30 days, but probably not. Would you lend money if you knew the computers were likely to breakdown, taking your money with them? ( If you still have a pension fund, your answer today is sure. ) People will run their credit card to the max.

Banks will have to lower credit card spending limits. That will accelerate the panic. The banker's game is a confidence game. It always has been. In 12 months, there will little confidence in anything, anywhere.

Central banks will have to buy government debt to liquify the system. They will create high-powered debt money that serves as the monetary base. This is what Japan is doing now. This has not brought back the boom in Japan. It will not stem the panic in late 1999. It will only serve as a propraganda tool. It will be used to increase confidence. It won't work.

The central banks are not themselves compliant. Bank wire transfers are not compliant. The governments that have granted monopoly status to central banks are not compliant. A minority of depositors will understand that the confidence game will end on January 1, 2000. It will only take a minority.

Noncompliant computers will revoke State sovereignty as nothing has in man's history. We are heading into a true revolution--a revolution in faith, law, and expectations. We are also heading into a revolution of money.

Q. WHAT DOES THIS COST? A. WHAT HAVE YOU GOT?

It is January 4, 2000. The typical person, all over the world, goes into a store, assuming that stores have anything left to sell. He sees something he wants to buy. What does this cost? This question is the heart of every economic transaction. There will be no single answer. Price is negotiable.

His bank is closed. If it's open, there is a long line in front of it. People are holding last month's printouts of their accounts. But those accounts are a month old, and Christmas has taken place since then. No one can prove to a bank teller what he has in his account today because the bank's computers will be down or inaccurate or no longer trusted by the bank's officers. Our computers are down. The paralysis spreads.

He has currency, but not much. He has a credit card, but it will be rejected by the card machine: borrowing limit reached or expired or bank closed. He has a checkbook, but the store owner will not trust his checks. Has he spent everything already? Is his bank solvent? Will the store owner's bank be paid by the check writer's bank? Has a bank gridlock occured? For that matter, is the store owner's bank solvent? Will it pay him?

The risk of nonpayment skyrockets in 2000. That kills fiduciary media--promises to pay. That shrinks the money supply by about 90%. Maybe more. Houston we have a problem.

The problem is this: transactions become possible only for cash. But what will people accept as cash? YOU HAD BETTER GET THIS QUESTION ANSWERED ACCURATELY EARLY IN 1999.

GOLD. How many people own gold coins? Not many. I would guess, no more than 3% of the U.S. population. On what basis do I make this estimate? By the seat of my pants and the fact that there are no more than 100 local coin companies in the U.S. that sell bullion coins regularly, and probably it's closer to 60. Since 1980, gold coin sales have been declining. Only a comparatively few die-hard gold bugs have invested in gold rather than stocks. The anti-gold sentiment has been strong in the U.S. since about 1933. That is two generations.

In 1997, a Chicago coin store, Harlan J. Berk, Ltd., which has been in business since the 1960's was selling less than $500,000 in bullion gold coins a year. Sales in the third quarter of 1998 were $3.5 million. This is obviously y2k related. I called the store. I asked if this reflected lots of new buyers or higher-ticket orders. The salesman told me it's the latter. As he put it, the average size of each order is astronomical.

So, gold coins are owned by a small percentage of the population. The general public has never seen gold coins, surely not in transactions. People buy and sell gold coins for fiat money, not goods. The coins are not money today; they are investment assets. Gold remains de-monetized.

The question is: How will gold coins move from investment assets to money? How will they move from the portofolios of eccentrics and suspicious investors into the marketplace? The answer is, slowly.

Think about it. Will someone with enough money today to have been able to afford a portofolio of gold bullion coins go into the local market and start buying items for gold coins in 2000? In the midst of a breakdown? Not if he's smart. The guy on the other side of the transaction will think, Gold coins, eh. I'll bet he has a lot more of them. This is not good. Gold coins in a crisis are for buying absolute necessities from people you hope will not kill you. You become the goose that lays golden eggs. You may recall what happened to the goose in the story.

Then when will gold become money? When will it be re-monetized? In the rebuilding phase. When the life and death nature of the y2k crisis has passed, men will look for sound money. That's when the person with the gold will become a buyer of capital assets, such as houses, or will become the local lender.

I spoke to Burt Blumert of Camino Coin Company ( 800-348-8001 ) . I asked him how he thinks gold will move into the marketplace. Here's what he told me. In Russia today, there are flea markets and farmer's markets. These are the real markets. At these markets, there will be one or more coin dealers. The farmer who sells produce doesn't try to figure out what some foreign coin is worth. He doesn't want the risk. He sends the coin holder to a moneychanger. The moneychanger buys it for currency, probably paper dollars, and the coin seller goes back to the farmer to pay currency for the food.

If there is a breakdown here, the same thing will happen. The local flea markets will provide oppurtunities for somebody younger than I am to go into business. He will buy and sell coins and currency. He will integrate the local market's money system with the markets outside. If he does a good job and operates on tight commissions, he will prosper. If he doesn't, he will get competition. If he cheats too many people, he will disappear. This scenario is market-based. It makes a lot more sense than my previous mental scenarios on how we could re-monetize gold and silver. This one begins with real people making decisions to buy and sell.

But the problem remains: How will gold become a common currency? This will happen only after law and order have been restored. If every man with gold coins is a marked man, other currency units will function as money in the vast majority of markets. Gold will be a black market currency, or a hidden market currency. Those who sell it for goods and services will have ways of protecting themselves. Gold will mean guns--or guns will mean gold!

That's because of the present distribution of gold: narrow. It is owned by people with money to spare, meaning middle aged people or old people. These people do not defend themselves with their bare hands. They defend themselves with police officers. If there are no policeman, these people will be armed. If they aren't they will not remain visible owners of gold for very long.

SILVER. Silver coins are common. People who attend gun shows are often silver coin owners. They are good old boys. ( If you attend these shows, you'll notice that some of the women are, too. ) They do deals in cash. A silver dollar is still recognized at gun shows. You can buy guns and ammo with silver coins.

Silver coins were still in circulation 35 years ago. They looked like today's antimony-plated copper coins. There is some continuity. But not many people know that a silver dime is worth more than a dime. It will take experience to change this opinion. If the price of silver falls far enough in the next great depression, a silver dime might only be worth a dime in 2000.

The price of silver this year has fallen from over $7 to under $5. But the price of a bag of silver coins has fallen from $5,100 to $4,500. Silver dollars have gone up. Since February, there has emerged a 25% premium for silver coins over silver bullion--even more for silver dollars. Why? WE ARE SEEING THE PRE-MONETIZATION OF SILVER COINS. The government isn't making silver coins anymore. People know the original producer. The original mint was not a now-defunct private mint. The INFORMATION COSTS of using these coins is lower than using privately minted silver coins.

Will the price of silver bullion fall in 1999 and 2000? Yes. It's an industrial metal. Demand will drop in the recession. But the demand for U.S. silver coins will increase as the price of silver falls. The premium for silver coins over bullion will increase. Can it get to 100% or more next year? I doubt it. I expect y2k panic money to go into gold coins if the price of silver bullion falls to less than 50% of the price per ounce in coins. In any case, as I discuss later, the big money will go into gold coins in 1999.

There are very few people who own silver U.S. coins. The coins have been melted down for years as they have come onto the market. That is because they have not commanded a monetary premium. This has changed only since early this year. The monetary problem is the same as for gold coins, namely, how to get these coins into general circulation as currency. It will take law and order. But, initially, it will take more and more exchanges among good old boys. These people are in larger numbers in the country than the city.

What I say here I do not know from personal experience. I surely don't know it because of a scientific survey. PEOPLE WHO EXCHANGE SILVER COINS FOR GOODS AND VICE VERSA DO NOT PAY TAXES ON 100% OF THE PROFITS THEREFROM. Do I need to spend a lot of space defending this statement? This is another way of saying that silver coins will function as money earliest in those circles in which respect for the government is quite low. Put another way, members of these groups do not today grant full acknowledgement of the government's claims to sovereignty. They still use silver coins, not because they are U.S. coins, but because they WERE U.S. coins, and they aren't being produced any more. They use silver coins because these coins are money within a subculture that doesn't use bank accounts for all of it's transactions. These people have not left a paper trail, or more accurately, an electron trail. They are outside the conventional monetary system.

When electronic money disappears in 2000, those people who have been on the fringes of the electronic money system will have many advantages over the rest of the population. First, a low percentage of their wealth had been in a bank or retirement fund. Second, personal contacts with others of like mind: a personal division of labor based on cash. Third, a lifestyle based on a lower division of labor. Fourth, skills in making cash transactions. Fifth, familiarity with firearms. Sixth, an unwillingness to be pushed around. ( Have you ever been at a gun show, that free market so mistrusted by President Clinton? Visit one sometime. Take a careful look at the attendees. There is something about them that says, don't go up to this fellow and say, 'I'm really interested in environmentalism. What about you?' )

FIAT CURRENCY. I include here paper money and token coins. I call token coins Teddy Kennedy coins. The 1964 Jack Kennedy halves were 40% silver. Teddy Kennedy coins are different: gray on the outside, pink on the inside. I think they will be very valuable in 2000.

I have discussed this before. First, they are widely recognized. Second, if electrical is off and/or the banks are down, both of which I expect, today's fiat money will be nearly in fixed supply. You will be able to get new paper money--if any--only from a government agency on a face-to-face basis, such as a military office, or through an agency licensed by the government. This could be a local coin store. Burt Blumert tells me that in 1968, as the deadline approached for redeeming silver certificates for silver coins, the coin stores became the primary agencies for the exchange.

There will be a massive deflation in 2000. Electronic money will cease to exist, or at least it will not serve as money for most people in common transactions. Transaction costs among will rise too much for electronic money: the verification problem. It will be like credit cards when the card's computers get jammed up and the phone-based verification system stalls: no store will accept payment. People will then use any form of money they can, which means today's fiat currency. What I expect is THE DE-MONETIZATION OF ELECTRONIC MONEY. By default, this leaves fiat currencies.

People will make do with what ever they have in 2000. New monies will appear. Money has these features: scarcity, high value in relation to volume, recognizability, and divisibility. Fiat currencies will be scarce. Because there will be tremendous demand for money, prices will fall. The value of fiat money will therefore be increasing. Fiat currency is recognizable. But it will not be divisible, so you had better have small bills and coins. People will not be able to make change.

In a breakdown, canned tuna will serve as money. In the country, chewing tobacco in tins or sealed pouches will be currency. In cities, cigarettes will be money, until they get too stale. Pipe tobacco in sealed cans will function as money. So will dip. You probably don't know what dip is. Dip is smokeless tobacco that is not chewed. It is also called moist snuff, but not by it's users or salesmen. Skoal Bandits is one brand. Another is Renegades. Expensive whiskey in the original bottles will be money. ( When I say jack, I mean Jack Daniels. ) Bags of white sugar will be money. Coffee will be money. These commodity monies will appreciate over time because most people who want to exchange anything for them will consume them, and supplies will not be replaced that easily. As they get more valuable, fewer people will give them up in common exchanges. This is why these commodities will not serve as money for very long. They will be transitional currencies in 2000 and 2001.

When the welfare checks stop coming in 2000, the modern welfare State will lose most of it's legitimacy. This will happen almost overnight. By 2001, today's computerized world will have a completely new world order politically: a decentralized order. This will produce an unprecedented reduction in the State's perceived moral authority and hence a reduction of it's sovereignty. This will make for a much faster acceptance of new forms of money.

Part 2 to come in a little while. I need to to rest my digits.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 03:06
Auric (Nick @ C, aurator, Colleen) ID#257312:

Colleen-- Good to have you back @ Kitco. Been a long time since we've heard from you. Hope things are going well. Nick--Will pass your bill to aurator, along with mine. We'll figure out how to get a 3-way hook up next time. Looking forward to it. Time for bed... ( thud )

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 03:04
John Disney () ID#24135:
Erle ..
Anglogold blew a lot on its takeover of Minorco's
mines .. However .. it is a super monster company ..
.. of the two I like harmony the better because it's
still seriously undervalued ..
.. but Anglos has real LOW AVERAGE COST gold and
unbelievable resources ..
.. If people wake up to anglogold .. it will
skyrocket .. after all it comprises western deeps
vaal reefs joel fregold .. it never ends ..
... If the brits start buying .. anglogold will
go up a lot.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 03:03
Jack (Getchell Gold) ID#254288:
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Getchells reserves at 14.8 million oz., PDG hoping to increase them to 20 million oz. by end of 99; if merger goes through. Getchell properties are contained in one area of Nevada, sought of like NGC and ABX were in the old days.
If PDG likes Getchell, it's a good bet that something real good is there. This shows great confidence by a major miner in Getchell who has not operated well in the past.
PDG is not perfect ( they make mistakes occasionally ) . As a developer of mines, PDG has much expertise.
Considering the low gold prices, it is difficult to fault many miners for having a hard time. Many have many shares and/or big debts. This because gold has been artificially held below $420 for many years now, while they built in big expensive projects on that price basis.
Soon the merchant/bullion banks may own quite a few of these companies.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 02:51
Goldteck (North Korean tragedy) ID#431200:

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/world/asian/story.html?s=n/the_japan_times/world/19981218/19981218403

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 02:48
ERLE (TVX is still a two bagger trading vehicle.) ID#190411:
Someday I'll do it.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 02:46
ERLE (J.D.) ID#190411:
Another dopey question:
I bought harmony at the last downturn ( 3.125 ) . Anglogold did its dive, but has not recoverd as much as Harmony has.
Where's your bet on these? Short?
bbin the morning.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 02:37
John Disney (.. and another thing ..) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Another comparison ..
Harmony has about 25 mill oz of RESERVES for
about 65 mill shares at $4.5 .. that makes
12 $ oz versus say 25 for TVX .. so the rise in
price for harmony and the fall in TVX is starting
to bring things into line..
.. However we must remember that the high cost
RSA mine makes a profit while the low cash cost
TVX mine loses money..

.. you know .. its like clinton's 70 per cent
popularity in the polls.. if you control the worlds
information network .. it's hard not to use that to
your advantage..

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 02:35
ERLE (IIIIII) ID#190411:
Isn't that odd how I had six Is on my last post?
I'll be more careful about that in the future.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 02:29
ERLE (John Disney) ID#190411:
I already have about 8000 adr SGOLY. I took a big position for me in this company.
I am going to dump all of my ADR's and will go to an account on JSE.
I looked for Kalgold around here, and there was no way to get into it in the US.
I have set up a small account in Australia, and I will do the same in SA.
I am leery of the treatment that the ADRs get here.
I always moan about the loss of Western Deeps to Anglogold.
Just about the time that WDEPY was going to go, Anglo took them out.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 02:26
aurator (bok thingies) ID#255284:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Nicko
Auric didn't mention that he paid the bill for talking to me! Well, listening actually. Auric, yourself, and Fred, real gentlemen. Auric. I have now worked out how to get a 3 way simultaneous conversation, and did that the other day talking to Nick@C and Fred@Vienna ( who is going through a technology change, and so can't get online ) We'll coordinate and get Nick, yourself and mois to a party line one day soon.

Crusty
I'm all for saving the boks, and the books too:
Who kills a man kills a reasonable creature,
God's image; but he who destroys a good
book kills reason itself, kills the image of
God, as it were, in the eye.
-- John Milton, AREOPAGITICA.



Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 02:25
John Disney (TVX) ID#24135:
TVX ..
This stock is pretty cheap .. say 10 mill oz
of gold reserves plus another 3 as silver equivalent.
.. they have 162 million shares so assuming a price
of 2 dollars .. makes 320/13 or 25 $/oz for RESERVES.
that not unreasonable.
For comparison Getchell had 6.2 milliom with 31
million shares at 11 $ ( ) .. say 325 mill $/6.2
= 55 $/oz ..
I can understand PDG price coming off after this
merger

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 02:18
Nick@C (Auric) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Your bill for the phone call is in the mail{:--- ) ) ) .

We'll have to talk again some time. You mid-west blokes are the salt of the earth--just like them Kiwi fellers. Yanks are great!! Rebs too!! It's your gubbmint that sux ( but no more than ours--well maybe just a little bit more ) Still way ahead of them UNdemocratic countries!!

Did you see them Demos march out today A fine example of Democracy in action!! You know why bjC was impeached They're all jealous that he was getting more than they were!! A little Xmas humour, mate. For in-depth political analysis, you'll have to read my book.

I would say something witty about gold right now, but I don't like to use bad language on line. Still, I guess it even rains on the Rock of Gibralter on occasion.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 02:17
sharefin (Ed Yardini) ID#284255:
-
COMMENT: Inflation rates are moving very close to zero around the world. We
are literally on the edge of deflation. Expect even more signs of deflation
in 1999, despite further central bank easing and lower government bond
yields. I still believe we are heading into a global bear market for
stocks, which already started in 1997 for Asia and Latin America, and in
1998 for Europe and some sectors of the US stock market. The global rally
since mid-Oct pushed US stocks to a possible double-top. The advance has
been very narrow both among NYSE stocks and global stock markets, which
have not recovered to their previous record highs. ( See GLOBAL MARKETS
BRIEFING. )

Y2K COMMENT: I've spent the past 4 weeks studying the Y2K disclosure
statements of the S&P 500 corporations in their third quarter SEC filings.
I didn't get a warm, fuzzy feeling. I would really like to lower my
subjective probability of a global Y2K recession, which remains at 70%.
But, I found no reason to do so in what I read. America's largest
corporations have had to increase their total Y2K budgets by 26%, on
average since the end of last year. They've spent only 42% of their latest
estimated budgets, which are likely to continue to rise through 1999. Of
the 11 S&P industry groups, utilities were dead last with a
spending-to-budget ratio of 31%! ( See the latest four issues of THE Y2K
REPORTER. )

STOCK VALUATION: In addition to tracking the Greenspan Model daily for
you on my home page, I am now monitoring earnings expectations and stock
valuation for Canada, the UK, Germany, France, and Japan every month in
GLOBAL VALUATION MODELS.

IMPEACHMENT NEWS: An informed source in the White House ( not an intern )
expects that Bill will agree to resign, but only if Hillary replaces him in
the Oval Office. She will then pardon her husband before filing for a
divorce. You heard it here first. Maybe I scooped the Drudge Report.

Happy Holidays and Happy New Year, Dr Ed

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 02:07
John Disney (read any good bocks lately ) ID#24135:
For Erle ..
there is a website .. http://www.sthelena.co.za

their phone number is +27- ( 11 ) 6442400
fax +27- ( 11 ) 4840626
This is the Goldfields number in Joburg

if you phone ask for the St Helena company secretary .. and
request he airmail you info on their quarterly
results and annual report.

I was just kidding about the Boks not taking showers..

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 02:05
SWP1 (The nice thing abotu weekends...) ID#286224:
....is the price of Gold doesn't seem to fall...

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 02:03
TheMissingLink (Anti-environmentalist, dont read this.) ID#371380:
Copyright © 1998 TheMissingLink/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
My 18 month crusade against the U.S. Army's unwillingness to address the 1,000,000 rounds of artillery in Lake Michigan fired from Fort Sheridan has ended, in success! My petition to the U.S. EPA has resulted in the completion of the Preliminary Assessment and the recomendation to move on to a site assessment.

What does this have to do with gold? Nothing, but now I can spend more time with you guys. X-mas is going gangbusters. More dry powder about to be fired on GSR, NEM, and bullion. Maybe some Mapleleafs to retail to the public when Y2K hits and gold skyrockets. And I don't mean 01-01-00, I expect public awareness to rise exponentially in April 99.

Y2K preparation beginning in earnest now. Gun, grub, water, cash ( and equivalents ) , nine month old Airedale Terrier, getting rid of debt. Preservation of capital and lifestyle.

Read this, it will scare you. http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP105.HTM

Steve

http://www.familyjeweler.com/rdx.htm

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 02:02
sharefin ('Ol Saint Slick) ID#284255:
-
T'was the night before impeachment and all through the House
All the Congress was stirring, even Conyers, the louse.

The Articles were hung on the Capitol with care
In hope that 'ol Bubba would be trapped in his lair.

Republicans were warmly nestled with the Feds
While visions of perjury danced in their heads

And Barr with his rhetoric, and Hyde with his trap
had just settled in for an afternoon nap.

When out in the Gulf there arose such a clatter
They tuned CNN to see whats the matter

And what to their wondering eyes should appear
but Tomahawk missles cruising like reindeer

With a presidential address, so lively and quick,
They knew in a moment, it must be Ol' Slick

More loyal than beagles, his supporters they came
And he whistled and shouted and called them by name

Now Conyers, Now Gephardt, forget about the Vixen!
On Barney! On Albright! Hey I'm no Nixon!

From Capitol Hill to the Washington Mall
Now dash away, Spin away, Fool them all

And then the Republicans heard on the roof
the prancing and pawing of each little goof

As they scratched their head and were turning around
Resilient ol' Slick polled another rebound.

No longer was he eating his big humble pie
While assaulting Saddam with bombs from the sky

A bundle of uncompliant weapons he had flung at Iraq,
It looked like again, Slick Willie was back.

His eyes how they twinkled, his dimples so merry
he grasped for an intern - he wanted a cherry.

His droll big mouth was all drawn in a grin
he knew all at once he had fooled them again

The stump of a stogie he held in his teeth,
The smoke had encircled his head like a wreath

He had a broad face like an old lumberjack
and two baggy eyes from doin' the crack

He was confident and strong, a right jolly old elf
the Republicans, they wept in spite of themselves

A wink of his eye and a twist of his head
soon let them know, they had something to dread

He spoke the right words, and went straight to his work
Ignoring the fact, that some think him a jerk

And shaking his finger, and thumbing his nose
by Wagging the Dog, up the polls he rose

He turned to his spinmeisters and gave them whistles
They cheered Slick Willie, as he launched planeloads of missiles

They heard him exclaim, with Impeachment out of sight
Happy Ramadan to all, and Thank God for this fight

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:58
Nick@C (PS ERLE) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Don't listen to me. Fred@Vienna is the real Australian share expert. Where do these Viennese get their Aussie share info Aurator and I had a 3-way conversation with Fred recently. They are both gentlemen and scholars. You meet the finest people on Kitco!!

Haggis@gold driller. When are we getting more 10-bagger tips? I could use a 10-bagger about now. A 5-bagger will do in a pinch though.

I can't believe it. My last post went through in 5 seconds. Yesterday I had time to re-read War and Peace in between posts!!!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:52
ERLE (J. Dandy to the rescue...go jim dandy ..Go) ID#190411:
Is there a web site that offers the info that you just posted on St. Helena, or, should I just call?
As far as the Springbok stuff goes, They were far too gentlemanly when they came to our town, and were accosted by the local taxcow lowlifes.
For tough guys, they were quite likeable. I'd like to see them back.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:49
Nick@C (G'day ERLE) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Just got in from Christmas drinks with friends and first post I see is from you, asking about Anvil Mining. I got stopped out of a rather large position at .12 1/2. Now down to .06 or .07 maybe less. Thank goodness for stop losses and the discipline to use them. I could not trade without them, cause I would have been out of poker chips long ago!!! Damned inconvenient of them to have a war in the Congo just after I mentioned this beaut little miner. One of the richest deposits on earth. Difficult to mine with lead flying over your head though. Probably the buy of the decade if you've got more dollars than sense.

If there are any other lousy tips I can give you, don't hesitate to ask.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:47
John Disney (an excellent summary ..) ID#24135:
jinx44 ..
of a sad situation ..
just holding my breath for some
lawyer to post that the rapist's
human rights were violated

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:43
Mole () ID#34883:
Copyright © 1998 Mole/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
couple of charts to make your mouth water... http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=AMZN&d=2y
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=YHOO&d=2y

must be a constant battle of avarice keeping those stocks...of course, I don't know. wonder if those 'vacationing' traders are keeping an eye on them. just buy the dips! egads. nothin against tech stocks mind ya.

mondays ado's:
http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/bridge_news/150.1.html

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:41
ERLE (Auric,) ID#190411:
I am glad that you were able to dissude the antipodeians from their imminent attack on merka.
I have at my feet an application for account at GreenLine.
Mr. nick@c had better come up with some stuff that I can lose money on.
Is your favourite Congo miner still depressed?

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:39
John Disney ( the gold dust factor ..) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
for Erle ..
thanks .. the st helena quarterly says .. that during
1998 substantial quantities of gold had been recovered
from mill clean up. This stopped in June 1998 to
improve management control and consequently the mills
have been reabsorbing gold during the current ( third )
quarter. Recovery grades in september indicate that
the mills are approaching saturation and recovery grades
are expected to improve during the december quarter.
I phoned them and asked what they meant by management
control .. I got the impression that they feared the
vaccum cleaner guys were walking away with gold dust
in their pockets.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:30
Steve in TO (Nightwriter - don't believe anything the polls from . . . ) ID#287337:
Copyright © 1998 Steve in TO/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the US mass media say! You neeed to look at the polls done by the companies that do voter polls for politicians. The Zogby organization is the best in the USA IMHO.

Remember in 1996 when the media were all trumpeting that the polls indicated Clinton would win by a landslide? Clinton ended up getting only 47% of the vote, only 2% more than Dole, although he ended up with a lot more Electoral College seats.

The Zogby poll called the election within 2 points of the actual results: he was calling for 49% of the popular vote and for the results to be very close to Dole's.

I don't know whether the mass media are incompetent, or whether they have an agenda to influence events with these poll results that they publicize.

- Steve

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:30
ERLE (Colleens' tons-o-coin) ID#190411:
They don't count the old stuff that if marketed here.
If you buy old coins, will the goddamned gommint count that?
.
Buy old gold, Make way for the new!

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:29
gagnrad (Mr. Disney,) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Am going to bed now, but would be interested in your ideas about where the Rand is going relative to the USD, and how much you see SA gold stocks are undervalues vis a vis NA stocks. Will check back in our morning.

BTW, FWIW, a large part of the prezzes popularity stems from possibility number 4 ) propaganda; the fact that a large segment of the US population is brainwashed. I know little old ladies who are TERRIFIED, afraid that the Repubs will do away with their pensions the day the get in office. I know lots of 'Merkan blacks who are afraid that the day a Repub gets in they will be put back into slavery. IMHO all due to the most effective propaganda machine in the world since Hitler burned the Reightstag ( sorry about the spelling, am not a German speaker, recall the big government building he had burned to gather support against his political enemies ) .

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:28
Auric (Comments) ID#257312:
Copyright © 1998 Auric/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

1. Any thoughts that the auratious one harbors any ill will toward the US were quickly disspelled after speaking on the phone with him. Had an absolutely delightful conversation! I got a genuine sense of warmth toward Americans. Same with Nick of Canberra. Would love to sit down over a six pack or four with these guys sometime. I would urge you all to phone one another on occasion. It's really not all that expensive. ( Especially since Nick @ C picked up the tab! ) 2.The Church Ladies solution to High Crimes and Misdemeanors-- I heard that guy got religion and has now joined the choir. As a soprano.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:27
jinx44 (John Disney and the amazing Khosa pecker-hacker) ID#57290:
Copyright © 1998 jinx44/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Or Zulu or whatever. People in the excited states just can't remember that the vigilante was the law in a lawless frontier. Most good people want to be treated fairly and left alone. When angered, by too much or too little civility and law enforcement, take matters into their own hands. Since we wanked yanks can't make our own system work for sh*t anymore, we whine and bitch. Never would we have the balls to admit we are incapable of handling our own affairs. We want the government to take care of us, to make those naughty criminals go away from our gated community. Well pard, bacon don't fry that way and we don't get justice from our failed system. Thank goodness that there are still people in the world that know how to put a stop to inappropriate behavior when the system doesn't work ( and most of the people don't either ) . Up with 32Batt near the cut line in '82, we had a local Af who raped a nannie. No trial needed. Over a barrel and at 'im with the shambok. Eye for an eye. Worked wonders. Everyone happy including the perp, he stayed out of jail! Pomberi ne hondo.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:24
John Disney (.. a serious development ..) ID#24135:
Morbius ..
YES .. this means that in the future politicians
may be unable to LIE .. this may mean the end of
Government as we know it .

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:23
ERLE (@John Disney) ID#190411:
Your fount of info floweth over. As a shareholder in St. Helena, I can never get the free poop that you offer here.
I know that the mine is old ( 1951 ) . I went by the figures published on their site, an came up with a value of 9.00US/oz in the ground. I am willing to let this one ride for the duration ( however long that might be ) .
Is there a good reason why they would vacuum, or Highgrade the mine?
In the US, or Canada, it is impossible to get relevant, timely, information on these companies.
Thanks for all of your past information.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:19
John Disney (Puleze ..) ID#24135:
Salty ..
Boks .. not bocks ..
Boks play rugby .. people read bocks..

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:15
morbius (@PH in LA ) ID#35757:
Yes it is a dark day for our republic. After today any president caught commiting perjury can be impeached. What are we comming to when our highest officials cannot perjure themselves and get away with it? Anarchy. That's what it is.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:15
John Disney ( I have TWO explanations ..) ID#24135:
Someone asked ..

Does anyone have an explanation for this?
He is back up over 70% approval in the polls.
Why does America love this man?

EXPLANATIONS
1. Americans are idiots
2. Polls are rigged
3. any combination of 1 and 2 above.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:12
colleen (Gold Coins@Y2K) ID#33164:
Copyright © 1998 colleen/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Y24K
( Source: Deborah Stokes, THE NATIONAL POST, 12/14/98 )
The Geneva-based WORLD GOLD COUNCIL which monitors gold demand worldwide says that 772,000 ounces ( 24 metric tons ) of gold coins were sold in North America in the third quarter of this year—nearly three times the highest quarterly volume since 1990 when the council began tracking the data. One of the most popular coins is the Gold Maple Leaf, which comes in five sizes ranging from 1/20 of an ounce to a full ounce, which currently sells for $650 ( US ) . The popularity of the Canadian coin is attributed to the fact that, at 24 karats or 99.99 percent, it offers the purest gold on the market. ( JG )
Link: http:www.nationalpost.com

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:10
John Disney ( see ya in court ..) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
For Erle ..
The US system of trial by jury doesnt apply in RSA...
Here you are tried by a panel of judges .. This is
the case in many countries ..
I dont think TBJ is so great anyway .. IMHO .. I
cite the OJ case as an example ..
This presently genitally challenged chap did not
get tried by jury nor judge .. but by VICTIM !!!!
Frankly I rather like the concept ..
And by the way the US practice of lawsuits whenever
possible wont apply HERE .. these girls got plenty
of nothing .. the lawyers would get paid in old
bread knives.

For James
Rommel was a stand up guy .. amd a student of
Stonewall Jackson.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 01:09
aurator () ID#255284:
JD
That explains why the bocks are playing soo much better.

Erle
I cann't get may hands on the address of the Korean Pig right now, I'll go looking for it and post details
In meantime
http://www.gold.org/Inve/Bars/Pigb_19.htm

I musta missed your URLs for the FDIC, although I have read several recently on it.


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 00:56
John Disney (St Helena ..) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Erle ..
St Helena is an old mine .. it only uses about half
of its milling capacity .. BUT it owns 15 % of the
new Oryx mine .. it could mill for them on
consignment..
There are plans .. St Helena has a tax liabilty
so joint ventures with partners or takeovers are
always likely for this alone .. Goldfields has
majority control and will probably make a generous
offer to the remaining shareholders some day..
I would wait and see how the fourth quarter results
pan out .. This mine is always full of surprises.
I still hold some shares .. I had made a small
profit and cashed it in on a lot of the stock
however.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 00:55
NightWriter (Clinton approval rating rises after impeachment - CNN) ID#390415:
Does anyone have an explanation for this?

He is back up over 70% approval in the polls.

Why does America love this man?


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 00:54
Carmack (Buckler) ID#277224:
The political establishment seem to be holding most of the chips
and making up the rules to the game. Even though there are chinks
in the armour who or what is in the wings as a replacement.
Who also would be the combatants in this civil war,the Democrats
and the Republicans or the gold buggers and the CB's

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 00:54
ERLE (Hey John Disney,) ID#190411:
In that eyrie that you command, how is it going for the state of gommint?
It is humorous to post news bits about suspected serial rapists in SA, but, it doesn't seem that the accused perpetrator got much of a trial.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 00:47
Earl (JD:) ID#227238:
LOL. ...... The hand of God 'operates' in mysterious ways. .... Often with crude instruments. .... But, here in the land of the brave and the home of the free, those same ladies would find themselves sued out of their collective garters and bread knives.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 00:45
ERLE (aurator, My Constitution is better than yours,) ID#190411:
Yeah, I know.
I do know where you are commin' from.
And, you had better get it into your head that I have the greatest respect for you.
Do you know where I can get a look-see at one of those 2rands?
Another thing, Those Korean Pigs: Did you get an address for them?
My wife wants a trinket, and she doesn't like k'rands.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 00:37
John Disney ( Capital punishment no ) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Genital punishment YES ..

Members of a Church Choir in rape-ravaged Alexandra
township recently captured an alledged serial rapist
who had attacked one of their colleages.. Complaints
against the man had been lodged with the police but
no action was taken. Perhaps the Police were too busy
protecting the station from burglers to assign the
case a high priority.
.. so the good women of the choir captured the
man and took him to a place where they would not
be disturbed. They then cut off his offending member
with a dull bread knife.
... afterwards they beat him a lot and poured
water on him .. he screamed and asked for his penis
back .. They put it in the pocket of his trousers.
They then called the police ( silly girls ) but no
one came .. they tried calling an ambulance but it
didnt come .. finally they took him to Joburg
hospital.. They say they think his penis was
reattached ..

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 00:37
Quixotic 1 (PH in LA Synergy bleeds from the wound of another falling pillar.) ID#48200:
PH in LA,
I personaly would hate to see you fall from the same horse as so many others. I will sorley mis your style and content. It's all are different perspectives that create this eclectic framework that, nary-a-grain gets thought. I, we, the whole of this great website, need everyones own personal bias, attitudes and beliefs.

Synergy bleeds from the wound of another falling pillar...Gary

Please emial Quixotic1@mediaone.net

Gold for the Good Guys...

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 00:35
ERLE (@Bill Buckler) ID#190411:
In my limited way, I was saying that the Italians have led the way for the most important loss of faith in the political system.
The problem with the Italian ( Legge Norde ) leadership, is that they are not the issuers of the global currency.
In that, they will have to defer to the bailed bankers.- For the fleeting moment.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 00:26
aurator (It's a bean thing) ID#255284:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Erle
I apologise if I appear hostile towards the citizens of the United States, as you put it. That is not my intention.

Oftimes I am taking the piss out of ya, it's what we do downunder when we like people, and, I guess the humour doesn't travel. I hope you manage to laugh before you get angry with my posts, cos I spend most of my days laughing at the ridiculous world we inhabit and the too, too serious shenanigans of the human beans upon it. Laughing. Laughing like a drain. Which is pretty wierd, when you think about it, laughing drains?

Anyway, I apologise to ya. I had no idea that merkin had another meaning when I coined it, but it's too funny for words that some take offence at the word.

There's no need to take a fence, old buddy, there's just an open field of friendship between you heart and mine.


Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 00:25
PCM (Greenstone Gold: re Greenspan article) ID#169332:
Copyright © 1998 PCM/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The article on Greenspan is an excellent read. I am not an expert on monetary policy, ‘tho I have studied it peripherally for some years ( often relying on the information published by the American Institute for Economic Research, mentioned in my earlier post on Swiss gold sales ) . It seems to me that what Greenspan has said may somewhat contradict what he's done, as in pumping up the money supply in recent years; and, not acting since 1995 to restrain the growth of the current stock market bubble ( which may have been a more fiscally responsible thing to do ) . This resembles fine tuning and smoothing out the economy by destroying the value of the currency, the same old policy; with new twist of making us a debtor nation vis a vis other nations. Doesn't some of the responsibility for this rest on Greenspan?

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 00:24
Bill Buckler (TYoung - Erle - Tolerant1 - Carmack Re Privateer Gold commentary) ID#256381:
Copyright © 1998 Bill Buckler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Glad you enjoyed it. Carmack. A total breakdown of the system is NOT required for Gold to rally. What IS required is a breakdown of the total control of the system which has been exhibited to this point.

The fact that the U.S. has got involved all the way up to their necks in bailing out the system is best exhibited by the Fed's three rate cuts. The fact that the system is seen to be in good shape by most Americans is best shown by the stupendous comeback on the stock market between early October and late November.

Sure as you and I are breathing, there is going to be some political blood on the floor over this impeachment. But the greatest risk for the system as it stands is the risk that the political debate will veer towards the fundamental flaws in modern Western government.

If that happens, the system will come under the kind of scrutiny it may not be able to withstand. If THAT happens, then holding down the Gold price will prove more and more difficult.

But the political establishment is obviously losing its grip. When Democrats start talking about civil war as several did during and after the impeachment debate, the situation is clear.

I must repeat, though, that total collapse is not necessary. What is necessary is the breakdown of total control.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 00:22
Earl (Erle:) ID#227238:
Sorry for the discontinuity. ..... I agree with your earlier comments re liberals. I've often thought they were revisiting the Divine Right of Kings. ...... Only possible for those defective in reason. ..... A rose smells better than a cabbage. Therefore it makes better soup. ..... Got a problem? Hold a candlelight vigil.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 00:19
neer-do-well (More theory) ID#391172:
The dollar is backed by gold right now, you can buy all you want for spot. If lots a people want some and the supply is reduced the price will go up. Supply and demand, like goldfevr says.

Question is where is the supply coming from eh? Could uncle be the supply, to support the fiat dollar? If his supply begins to feel pinched we will see the price go up....maybe never eh? Maybe next week.

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 00:16
ERLE (@ John Disney) ID#190411:
Because you have been right so much in the past, I'd like to ask you about St. Helena. I saw your report earlier today about the vacuum deal. Is there much left of this company? I had read about the flooding of the shafts near to St. Helena's shafts, courtesy of Harmony. BLAH, etc
Is it a hold for three years?

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 00:04
John Disney (Sunday Morning Reflections ..) ID#24135:
for aurator ..
The springboks are much more acceptable now than they
used to be .. they made them start taking showers .

for PH in La ..
.. the question of intellectual midgetry.. so long ..
shorty ..

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 00:03
ERLE (@aurator) ID#190411:
Look, your hostility toward citizens of the United States is misplaced.
You are the one that keeps bringing up the political topic.
I do agree that the despicable policy of the ersatz gommint will cause nothing but pain.
Did you ever pick up the links that I posted to you about your pet peeve? ( The FDIC )
If you ever come to the US, you will have a place with my family. I know that that is tawdry to you in NZ, but, that's the way we operate here.
Can you post the Two Rand Piece?

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