KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 23:45
Petronius (Y2K problem is HISTORY - The gov. sends big bad welfer mammas to the rescue!!!) ID#225236:
Copyright © 1998 Petronius/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
We goldbugs are so stupid. Getting all excited about Y2K while the government had it all figured out. Not enough Y2K programmers, NO PROBLEM!!! Just take some of the welfare mammas and turn them into the Y2K programmers:

http://www.cnn.com/TECH/science/9811/27/t_t/welfare.y2k/

The first candidate is sort of interesting -- Davis, a widowed mother of four, had lost her job in a department store and her house before she was chosen to join the first group of 51 welfare recipients to undergo TekAid's intensive, two-month training.

It kind of teaches you humility. Here I am, a programmer with 15+ years experience and graduate education in CS, getting paid $200+/hour and doubting if we will live to enjoy the world as we know it after the Y2K fiasco. Enter a welfare mamma who after a couple of days of training knows how to debug a computer. Wow, what an amazing thing that government of ours, isn't it?!

Sleep well then!!! Nothing to worry about!!! Welfare mammas will fix everything.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 23:43
Dabchick (Tantalus...rhody...1 - month Gold and Silver Lease Rates) ID#258195:
The sharp jump in one - month gold and silver lease rates is caused by nothing more sinister than the sharp rise in $LIBOR from 5.03% on Thursday to 5.56% on Friday. Why it happened I cannot say, but at a guess it could be that the man at the FT pressed the wrong button. Sharp moves like that should always be treated with a sceptical eye, I suppose. Maybe I should have drawn attention to the irrational move in the 1-month $LIBOR when I posted at 10.09
Regards............Dabchick

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 23:41
sharefin (Consumer FAQ: Oil and Gasoline ) ID#284255:
-
http://www.zdnet.com/zdy2k/1998/09/4723.html
By Mitch Ratcliffe - ZDY2K

Q: Will oil and gasoline continue to flow at reasonable prices?

A: It will flow, but the price may well rise. The problem of Y2K in the oil and gas production supply chain is a tremendously complex one. There are embedded systems at every step along the way, from oil rigs and the drills at the bottom of the North Sea and the middle of nowhere stretches of oil pipelines in Alaska, Russia and the Middle East, to the systems that control refineries and distribution systems. An oil rig might contain 10,000 microprocessors, according to a Shell executive speaking London recently. Additionally, the computer applications that control the infrastructure may suffer from Y2K problems.

In April, 1998, World Oil magazine reported that the industry can expect to remediate less than 30 percent of the overall potential failure points in the production environment. This does not mean the 70 percent of the oil-related systems around the world will fail, only that the industry will be able to address 30 percent of the total possible problems.

That means that some oil drilling, refining and distribution systems are going to fail. There can be no doubt of it, in fact, because the oil industry is one of the most computerized in the world. Too, many of the systems used pre-date 1990, when few embedded systems manufacturers contemplated Y2K issues.

According to their Y2K Web sites, Texaco and Mobil both expect to encounter some problems. Mobil has focused on bringing its supply chain into compliance, emphasizing its business systems, like purchasing, sales management, intercompany communications and EDI applications. Without these working in good order, the company would have no way to pay for the oil it buys and sells. Texaco has dedicated $75 million to its remediation project. So far, it has found 800 applications that need Y2k work. In April, 1998, the company had 60 percent of its control systems inventoried and projected that between two percent and four percent would ultimately need to be repaired. It expects to be finished with upgrades and to begin testing by the end of 1998.

According to recent figures, the U.S. consumes about 47 million barrels of oil a day. Worldwide, oil use continues to rise with expanding industrialization and is expected to reach 75.6 million barrels a day. Oil production worldwide is about 51 million barrels a day. So, the globe is always operating off its reserves rather than what is being produced, which puts considerable pressure on the distribution system to keep oil flowing and prices steady.

As we all know, oil is a volatile commodity. Anyone who lived through the OPEC oil crisis of the mid 1970s has worried that prices could exceed $4 a gallon, someday. In many European countries, gas does cost more than $2.50 a gallon. An event like the Persian Gulf War may drive prices up by as much as 50 percent. However, in the case of the Persian Gulf War, it was largely profits from speculation that raised prices at the pump; there was never actually a major shortage. The U.S. government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve ( SPR ) released less than one-quarter of one day's worth of oil to the market during the war.

Y2K may produce the same kind of price bump, simply due to of market jitters about what will happen. Actual failures will certainly raise speculation and, hence, prices at the pump. Additionally, whatever the cost of Y2K remediation in the field, it will immediately be passed on to consumers -- it has always been the case that costs were quickly moved from the driller, to the refiner and via the distributor to the consumer.

What would happen if 30 percent of the world's oil supply were interrupted due to Year 2000 computer and embedded chip problems?

First, the President would have the option to release fuel from the SPR, a 563 million barrel oil storage system along the Gulf of Mexico. If the domestic distribution system is functioning, the feds will be able to move oil to refineries very rapidly to make up for the deficit. But, that will not prevent prices from rising, because oil from the SPR is sold at competitive prices. Should the price on the world market be $40 a barrel, instead of today's $19 or so, that's what the feds will charge.

A 30 percent reduction in production would translate into a U.S. deficit of 14.1 million barrels of oil each day. The SPR contains enough oil to keep the nation rolling along at its current consumption levels for roughly two months. Because the SPR can only release 4 million barrels of oil a day ( see below ) , the supply would last for 240 days at current levels.

zdy2k.com queried Rick Furiga, deputy assistant secretary for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at the Department of Energy to find out what the agency planned in response to Y2k. Here is an excerpt of the reply:

Whether the SPR would be used in the event of oil production being interrupted by a year 2000 computer problem will be a matter for the President to decide at that time. It has always been a principle of SPR planning that the Federal Government will maintain complete flexibility to respond to supply interruptions, and will not define a trigger for drawing down the inventory of the SPR.

We do not believe that the production of crude oil throughout the world will be substantially affected for a prolonged period by the year 2000 problem. However, for the sake of discussion, if production were to be negatively and substantially impacted, the United States in coordination with the other 22 countries that are members of the International Energy Agency would consider the volume of production loss, the inventory situation, the reaction of unaffected producers with spare capacity, and reports of shortages. If the situation appeared serious the Department of Energy could recommend to the President that oil be sold from the SPR. The decision to sell or not sell would be at the discretion of the President. If he decided to sell oil from the SPR it would be contingent upon issuing a finding of an energy supply emergency.

In the event that such a drawdown and sale were ordered by the President, the Department of Energy would issue an immediate solicitation for bids, and would be prepared to actually deliver oil within 15 days. In January 2000 the maximum rate of delivery from the SPR will be about 4 million barrels per day, and that rate would decline after the first 90 days. If all of the oil were to be sold, the SPR would be exhausted after 240 days. However, it is highly unlikely that a full scale drawdown would be required, because whatever the shortfall, some of the shortage would be offset by expanded production from excess capacity and other International Energy Agency country sales of emergency oil stocks. Of course, the slower the rate of sales from the SPR, the longer the 563 million barrel inventory would last.

Based on our research, we're confident that oil and gasoline will be available at or near current levels. Speculative pricing of oil and gas, however, almost certainly guarantees that prices will rise in response to the approach of the millennium or to actual problems caused by Y2K errors.




Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 23:18
sharefin (it's a repeat - what's the chances?) ID#284255:
http://www.wbn.com:8080/

WBN believes the Y2K downturn will begin in 4Q99 as oil ratchets up to $30 due to a shutdown of non-Y2K-compliant oil producing wells in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
------
$30 oil?

Where would that send gold?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 23:09
rhody (@ Tantalus: Yes I saw it. So we are back above 1% for one) ID#413307:
month gold lease rates. Either this is the start of the bull ( again )
or gold is about to be hit by short selling. I guess we are
about to find out if gold will really hold up well under all this
deflationary price action in other commodities. I have heard all
week about how resilient gold has been this week. Monday should
be interesting.

I think gold is about to be hit. Hope I'm wrong.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 22:54
Caper (Tks Gagnrad) ID#300202:
Enthusiasm-that's what we needs to get gold up. Dow 10,000/Gold 6000.
Meme chose ( sans those little hooks above the e ) . Gone to supplement my Pois Verts avec Wintergarten Wine. Ever tried powdered milk. Lived in complete isolation in Labrador-threw away my powdered milk.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 22:37
Tantalus Rex (@Kapex) ID#295111:

I hope your right. The top may not be in. It may go up a little, the DOW may even hit 10,000. BUT IN ANY EVENT, THE US STOCK MARKET IS ABSURDIDLY OVERVALUED. Common sense says to stay out of this market.

However, I've decreased the odds that a major crash will occur in a short period of time. I'm now tending towards a very long bear market in US Stocks. With the new NYSE 'crash' prevention rules in place, it gives the Spin Doctors to convince baby boomers to stay in the market for the long haul.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 22:19
aurator (Marcel Marceau and others memes......) ID#257150:
gangrad
I'm new to the meme thing ( La même chose ) , so I might not have got it, but, is
Good as Gold a meme? I heard my favourite proverb again this am from my waitress who was serving us brunch.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 22:15
Charles Keeling (@ KAPEX RE: Long Term Leap Puts) ID#344225:
Copyright © 1998 Charles Keeling/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
For KAPEX:

I sure do appreciate your enthusiasm!!! This is what we need here during
this maddening flat POG period.

However-----all the FEDS take a long, long weekend over the holidays.
Clinton was incognito eating turkey at Camp David. AG was busy
taking his blue pills in order to keep up with his younger wife. RR was
probably out fishing some trout stream somewhere. LTCM was not
active during this time frame since they needed a respite from dumping
all kinds of good stuff in order to unwind the margin that they enjoyed
for several years.

The S&P futures is owned by these arse holes who were absent from
the market during the looong holiday weekend.

Based on an article by Princeton Economic Institute that was posted here
just 2-3 weeks ago, the overseas european bonds owned by LTCM are
being DUMPED s l o w l y by LTCM and the proceeds are being funneled
in to the S&P futures. This article was convincing about the fact that THIS was the reason for the miracle recovery of the DOW in this past 45-60 days.

YES...YES....I do indeed want S & P long term leap puts. But our FEDERAL GOVERNMENT controls that index. The Fed plays with funny money that they either print, or withdraw from the slush fund that is controlled by WJC & RR. They BUY S & P future CALLS without fear of losing. It IS S& P Futures that push the DOW up.

How will LTCM get their cash out of the futures? If you had inside information that the S & P was going to go up strong for the next 30-60 days, and that the stock market would rally back to all time highs, could you recoup some lost earnings?

Moreover, if you knew that RR & WJC could write checks from a 50 billion dollar slush fund to BUY S & P Calls in order to support the stock market, would you be a bull or a bear during that time frame in question? Perhaps the Fed could be buying futures while you are selling futures, huh?

Face it LTCM is presently being bailed out by the FEDS. You don't want to get in the way, or you will just get crushed. Most of the market manipulation is, and has been, going through the S & P futures.

IT IS THE ECONOMY STUPID! This was the campaign cry that sent Clinton to the White House. This same pledge, to those who play wall street, got him elected again in 1996. Clinton faces impeachment. He is fighting it with his every breath. He did everything that he could to get elected in 92/96 and he is now doing EVERYTHING he can to keep from getting impeached.

IF WALL STREET CRASHES-----Clinton is outa there. Polls are 65% in his favor ONLY because he produces on WALL STREET.

WJC & RR are joint trustees of a 50-60- billion dollar slush fund that was set up to protect the US dollar from attack. It takes the signatures of the President & the Secretary of the Treasury to draw funds from that account. The Congress does NOT have oversight on this account. An audit would show that many billions have been thrown
away by purchasing S & P futures that expired worthless. Also a billion or two have been flipped to country's like S. Korea and PERHAPS Indonesia. All of this American taxpayer money has been spent for one purpose: To keep WJC in office.

Where did this slush fund come from?

Based on what I have been able to determine, the slush fund was originally set up from funds gained from the consfication of GOLD many years ago. It was ear marked for protecting the US dollar from attack. Is it not interesting that the fund has seen intense
usage during a time when the dollar was at all time highs? Congress---where are you.?
AG, and RR how could you be a part of this? Do you all just want a BUBBLE economy like Japan enjoyed?

Market manipulation. In a supposed FREE economy. SICK.

BUY GOLD & SILVER & beat the batards.


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 22:12
TYoung (SDRer...I'm green with envy...or) ID#177105:
is that gold with greed...love the pic's...NOT.: )

Tom

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 22:10
kapex (A repost of my 11-26-98 post. Good night!) ID#218222:
Copyright © 1998 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Date: Thu Nov 26 1998 13:22
kapex ( Here may be an E-wave explaination to the stock markets behavior ) ID#237260:
Copyright © 1998 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the last few months. As I've said, ( oh, HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE )
before, my predisposition is to watch the sentiment. When this is at extremes like it was, IMHO, ( for the PM's and the
stock market ) earlier this year, then I feel confident of expressing an opinion as to a change in the trend.
http://markets.tradingtech.com/Financials/DJI/DJILongTerm/DJIL/DJIL_0.html
It is then that I will look for corroboratting ( sp ) tools to validate my suspisions as to wether the markets have truly changed
direction. Elliot is one of the best tools for telling you where you were! Notice I said WERE. It's predictive ability comes in
when you ARE on the right count and can forecast future moves with respect to correct count and the use of fibbonacci
levels of retracements.
The market declined in July in 5 waves down with 3 waves up right to .382 levels of the declines. What it didn't tell you is
that this bubble had a little further to go.
With that said, lets see where we stand right now by looking at the internals as well as the current sentiment of the stock
market, that is obvious to all, as well as other gages that are not looked at nearly as closely.
Back in July, the put call ratio nearly tied its 5 year low by hitting 40 puts for every 100 calls. This level was hit two days in
a row
back in August of 97, right at the top. The A-D line Finally failed this July after confirming every new high previously.
Mutual fund cash levels were at levels NEVER seen before, I believe and the Investors Intelligence survey of bulls vs
bears were also at highs. In July I don't believe they were 5 year highs. We all know the public's sentiment on the market,
as surveys and comments have been posted here many times. Everyone I talk to is not afraid,AT ALL!!!
Now lets take a look at where we are right NOW!
Friday and monday, the put call ratio tied those two back to back 5 year records of 39-40. Investors intelligence shows the
level of bulls at 5 year highs of 57% last Wednesday.The A-D line did not even surpass the last little high it made on the
way down.
But heres the thing that has convinced me that this market is truly done. Even the prominent bears who were looking for
much lower prices during the decline have all agreed that this market has got more left on the upside.

Where are the bears? The Great 401K Bubble of 98is complete.
The advance from the lows was so breathtaking that it sucked everyone back in. Yet all internal measures of the markets
health are screaming, run for the exits!!
Now ask yourself a question. If this were to be the supercycle top, and we are headed into the abyss, how do you think it
would end?
Right, with as many as possible looking for higher prices!!
Gold and Silver are the same only in reverse!

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 22:07
kapex (Correction;) ID#218222:
There were 10 times more analysts and advisers who were bearish into the top in July versus now. Sorry!!

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 22:04
kapex (Tantalus: I will be buying puts on Monday.) ID#218222:
It's just one of those things with me I guess. J. Paul Getty was right, if the majority wants to buy it we should sell it to them, and if they want to get rid of it, I'll buy it! There were 10 times more analysts and advisers who were onto the top in July versus now. This is a low risk call guys! And, IMHO, the Top!

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 22:01
APH___b (To Jims: SWC) ID#255226:
Feeling is mutual. SWC is trading on its own merits. The AMEX
shorts will only exacerbate the move.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 21:54
gagnrad (Caper it amazes me that there is so much knowledge on the internet!) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I hadn't heard the word meme used for many years, since leaving post graduate training, then it was applied in a very tightly defined sense related to the linguistic proliferation of shared delusional systems. So I looked it up on the internet and found that not only had it become a popular word, there had developed a science of memetics!

So I will leave you with some links and a simple meme ( with semantic bomb attached ) to pass on to 1000 of your friends. Liberal girls are easy.

http://maxwell.lucifer.com/virus/alt.memetics/what.is.html
ftp://planchet.rutgers.edu/nanotech/papers/memes
http://www.brodietech.com/rbrodie/meme.htm
http://www.lycaeum.org/~sputnik/Memetics/day.life.html


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 21:50
Tantalus (@ kapex The Top is in. Sure hope you're right.) ID#317211:
Gettin' tired of waitin' for this bubble to burst, and sooner,
rather than later, is best with when all other looming economic
gremlins are taken into consideration.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 21:35
A (Can't get any better than this!) ID#254172:
I was reading Andy Sarlos's book Fear Greed and the end of the Rainbow and I was struck by a statement concerning situations where the pros tell you that it doesn't get any better than this. That means it won't.
I also means it's time to preserve capital in truly valuable assets and take a vacation while things get a lot worse.

King Steven

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 21:34
Caper (gagnrad) ID#300202:
Cudn't agree more. Meme chose U.S. Buck assimilation/anhilation.

Tom

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 21:28
gagnrad (Caper, sorry I don't get to read all the posts) ID#43460:
You can have the idea as your own for Canada. It applies to the southern US, Wales, Kurdistan, Tibet, Brittany, lots of other places. Human nature being what it is beople just don't like to lay down and die when they are faced with assimilation.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 21:24
Tantalus (@Dabchick's 10:09 - Did I read that right? Gold Lease Rate is 1.27%) ID#317211:
Got my heart racin'.

Rhody, you around here?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 21:21
Caper (gagnrad) ID#300202:
Like ur take on it-but one I posted before-Jesuits at one time controlled PQ.-made the Anglais shopkeepers & French farmers thinking the French would rule La Belle Province. In fact-English reigned supreme for years.
Jewish shopkeepers in Germany meme chose. Just another H.O. If they separate, Eastern Canadians have quicker access to Toronto. As Selby posts Y2K no problem-off to eat my Y2K stash of Pois Verts

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 21:17
THC (To Jim re Pd Price) ID#367411:
Copyright © 1998 THC/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thanks for the update!

I appreciate your friend's position. However, if you ever happen to get the full story over a couple beers, pls let me know. I continue to be very interested in Pd.

Looking at what happened in Pd here in Japan, I noticed that went the Pd price when haywire, the spot/near futures prices skyrocketed, while the furthest future prices did not move nearly as much.

That tells me that with the far out futures you get the drunken mule volatility, without the returns you see on the spot price.

So....I am playing around with the idea of taking delivery & waiting for another big move.........but I need to see how the system works for delivery,storage & resale........

Right now Pt looks good......holding.....

Nice to hear about gold.....if that comes true.......then some of the quality juniors which are now half-dead.......will be our Yahoos....yes?

Sitting & waiting.......let's have a cup of sake while we wait......the kind with GOLD flakes in it.......

Good luck to all.

THC



Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 21:07
gagnrad (An ill informed opinion about Canadas troubles.) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Bearing in mind that I am not saying I have any idea what I am talking about here, except that my wifes relatives are of French ancestry. They are nice people but completely different from Scots-Irish:

IMHO the problem is that this is what you get whenever you have two ethnic groups with dissimilar traditions trying to live in the same area. French/English problem dates from the time of the Norman conquest and will never be resolved. Unless one group is willing to assimilate until their ethnicity goes away the only answer is dissolution. So the sooner you split up the better. Remember the Robert Frost poem? Good fences make good neighbors...

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 21:03
kapex (The Top is In!!!!...... The Great 401K Bubble of 1998 is complete!!) ID#218222:
Copyright © 1998 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
O.K. guys, I'm calling it, right here, right now!
The stock market Top is in. IT'S OVER!!!
Go get the monday edition of Investors Daily, then turn to page A22 and take a look at the various indicators they follow. Then combine what I said in my Thanksgiving Day post and you will see where I'm comming from.
I've never been as confident about anything as I am about this!!!!!
Long term Leaps ( PUTS ) on Monday morning early.
Why do I feel like I'm the only one who see's this.
Oh well. I guess I felt like a fool for a while on August 12th 1987 too!
Get the hell out ..............NOW!!!
So I don't leave you with more questions than answers, the put call ratio Friday hit 33 puts for every 100 calls. It's not that this is just the lowest # in I don't know how many years, but rather an indication of the public at large as most professionals are on holiday Friday. This is a reflection of that NO Fear!! attitude on the part of the Individual Investor. If you also look at the mutual fund cash position, it declined in October. Novembers #'s are not in yet. Gee, I wonder where they will be! A Bubble is only ready to be popped when almost all are Convinced that the trend will continue. Is this not the current situation?
Tulip's anyone?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 20:54
SDRer (Hey! The Kitco group photo is ready! Turned out pretty well.) ID#93135:

I'm not sure whether I like the one of us in the field best, or the one in front of the building.
If we group order, we may get a reduced rate.

http://www.nwsi.demon.co.uk/

go to galleries
go to les oiseaux





Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 20:53
gagnrad (A, I think you are right) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
IMHO there is a sad lack of dedicated attention to quality advertising for bullion products. While the Platinum Guild, Society of American Silversmiths and other organizations have helped a little they seem to target the top 5% of the potential market. For investments the hypsters, fast talking side show hucksters and promoters of get rich schemes seem to be the prominent advertising force.

The situation is worse for the physical metal. Artists most often work in other media, jewelers work quietly , discretely and with little notariety, and investment advisors push altenative products which show better recent historic gains. The public is so ignorant it is willing to pay $50 for a pewter belt buckle using $.50 worth of metal but won't demand the same thing in silver for similar cost but worth $10 melt value. Small artisans would rather cast pewter at 400 degrees using rubber molds not silver at 1600 degrees. Mass produced silver trinkets are cheaply made, expensively priced and just plain tacky. There is no real place any more for mid priced silver cutlery, silver cane heads, silver buttons et cetera and no purchase source for them if they ever did become popular. IMHO

So now PMs give a message to the public, either they are overpriced and meant for the elitists or are cheap and tacky meant for the professional wrestling afficiandos of the world. IMHO

Compare the situation in the West with that of India. In that ancient nation's cultural language silver means solidity, family, tradition, stability and middle class values. There is always a corner jeweler with a touchstone available for free or cheap consultation and always a ready market for recyclable silver. IMHO


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 20:52
Charles Keeling (@ The Hatt RE; Junior Golds) ID#344225:
A very timely post. Things are happening NOW in the junior golds.

I took a ride on ARP-V recently that was a real thrill. Now I
am off of that one and I have jumped onto QTR-T. Watch it
Monday--I bet they hit a million share day.

The seniors have had a pretty good boost already, and I also
look for the juniors to move upwards with heavy volume.

The next 60 days will be interesting. So much to short, and so little time.


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 20:47
ravenfire (talk of Japanese bonds going south) ID#333126:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news2.cgi?T=news2_ft_topww.ht&s=330564922

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 20:04
The Hatt (The Junior Golds!) ID#294232:
Copyright © 1998 The Hatt/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Count them three seperate articles suggesting that the junior golds have bottomed and will start to correct. Have been following a number of juniors who are active in Nevada which is being touted on the street in Vancouver as the next major area play. Take a look at the charts on Claimstaker Resources and Coral Gold which I believe is the ray of light that indeed the VSE is about to rally. After all from 2000 to 400 is a very severe bear market that is poised to offer much leverage. Many are beginning to see that the big boards have more downside risk than upside potential and a small percentage of this money will begin to go looking for fundamentally sound Juniors. Spoke to a number of news letter writers at the Randol Gold Show and the concensus was that junior producers would be the first to turn followed by those who were working on projects. Well perhaps they are right as Claimstaker is now a producer and drilling in Nevada and Coral is drilling in Nevada and working on reopening their mine! White Knight Resources is another junior drilling in Nevada as is MIQ which I donot follow. Lots to choose from if you are looking to get in at or near the bottom......

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 20:02
tolerant1 (Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...the information age huh...Hmmmmmmmm...well you would) ID#20359:
figure if this is happening then people will begin to understand that gold and silver are money...when the information is available only one conclusion can be reached...gold and silver = money...no more...no less

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 19:56
A (Wine Racks for silver) ID#254172:
Copyright © 1998 A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The other day a friend of my client came in to our workshop in Orillia, Ontario and spotted 2 of my wine racks. He asked me how much for the pair of them and after some consideration I stated that I wanted a 5oz bar of silver for them. He didn't understand what silver was or what it cost. I thought this was strange, he agreed to pay $50.00 for the pair however the deal was never concluded. This lack of knowledge on the part of a car salesman of european origin concerning precious metals is rather incredible. Perhaps this general lack of knowledge on the part of the public is a contributing factor to lack of investor interest and low prices.

Does anyone else agree or have an alternate theory?

King Steven

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 19:48
Caper (Interestin' Read) ID#300202:
Called MediaByPass-Go to: www.4bypass.com.

The Rainbow currency Has Arrived
P9 features: He who owns GOLD makes the rules.

Enjoy

Tom

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 19:44
jims (To THC re PD) ID#252391:
Well, sorry to report my friend is very tight lipped about PD...stating it would be outside his arrangment with his paying clients to give me their target purchase price...he did say that he expects a move to $400 gold to start in the new year ( that's not very original I'll admitt ) but he has been very cautious and non committal about the yellow metal til now....so where goes gold so goes the rest

More here about PD price when and if I hear he has gone long.


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 19:30
jims (APH) ID#252391:
McClellan bullish on gold - how did that square with being bullish on sotcks - wish I had seen that interview. Was that on Channel 22 in Bos Angeles

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 19:29
jims (APH) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Oh yes - I noticed that -b after the APH ( APH-b ) that must be the imposter, yes. Funny who would want to do that - maybe it's his name too.

Anyway, So McCellan is bullish on stocks in all time phases Oh well, Actually seems one ought to be, we had our bear market now it is up again.

Agree, XAU looks headed for a dip, if it goes through its 200 day moving average ( AGAIN ) - talk about whipsaw and a useless trend indicator for this index - it would seem a move into the high 60s will be at hand. Something about the way gold is acting, the short covering that is taking place, suggests to me gold will not fall very much and that the decline in the XAU will be on very light volumn, mostly due to tax loss selling and lack of interest..

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 19:19
Mo in To (Break on Through) ID#347205:
Stephen,
Are you still having trouble getting through to my e-mail? If so, please advise via KITCO or my phone #. ( re:meeting )
thanks a bunch
MofromTo

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 19:12
Goldbug23 (Aldebaran - We agree) ID#432148:
As for the PE on Yahoo - how do you like 366 times next years est. earnings of 60 cents per Alan Abelson's column in Barrons Nov. 30 issue. This is mania pure and simple in my book. And a lot of people are going to pay the price and sooner or later they will wake up and realize they have paid.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 19:11
APH (McClellan) ID#255226:
Jims - McClellan the inventor of the oscillator was interviewed on local TV Friday. He's very bullish on all time frames, he also liked gold.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 19:09
snowbird (CC My compliments on your extremely well written post) ID#220325:
Copyright © 1998 snowbird/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I would agree that what you propose is reasonable. I do not however believe that the Separatists demands are. Quebecer's do not think that the rest of Canada has been carrying them for the last 30 years, but statistics show they have. I believe that all citizens should be treated equally and none given special status or concessions. That leads to jeallousy and dissention. For my part I believe in assimilaltion as has been done with all of the other ethnic groups in Canada and the US. The Quebec ethnocentrism will be destructive to them and to the rest of Canada. The poster that suggested that Canada should separate from Quebec has made a brilliant suggestion. I think that Quebecer's are great people and they should stay in Canada however Most of us are not willing to pay their asking price. I wish they would go or stay but get it on now.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 19:06
Lou_Jan (the Quebecois perversion) ID#320136:
Copyright © 1998 Lou_Jan/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The Separatist hardline politicians will strike out for an
independent country. Middle of the road separatists will use
the same trump card time and time again, throw the same old
tantrum, whine and moan and get to have their Canadian cake and
eat it too.

Their game that they play so well is good old blackmail. They
will never bring in a majority vote for all out separation -- the
referendum question, which has already been posed on two separate
occasion by the Bouchard gov't, the results of which continue to be disregarded until they get a 'yes', are based on a very vague
question -- sovereingty-association. In other words - a separate
Quebec, with Canadian passport and currency. ( !? ) As long as
English Canada panders to their devious political objectives, Canada
will never be at peace.

Just a thought of mine.. but it would seem that Jean Charest, the
Quebec liberal candidate, is not pushing all that hard for victory.
He's highly intelligent and politically shrewd... I wonder, perhaps,
if he intentionally wishes to usher in the Bouchard gov't, with the
logic that the next 4-year term will be hell on earth in Quebec,
as in the rest of Canada and internationally, from an economic and financial standpoint... ( which we Kitcoites well understand ) thus
allowing overall public contempt to fall on the shoulders of the
ones in power, namely the Bouchard gov't, once and for all ridding
Quebec of this insidious and devisive menace from the landscape
that is Canada -- so admired the globe throughout, as being the world-class country that it is, and should remain.

This, from a weary resident ( and goldbug ) of Quebec who, for the
better part of her lifetime has had to live with and suffer from
linguistic prejudice in a perverse political system.


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:58
APH (Jims) ID#255226:
That wasn't my post on SWC, a copycat. But to answer your question I wouldn't consider shorting this market in this time period until the SnP hit at least 1240 and even then the likely correction will be more sideways then down. The puts are so fat in premium it would take an enormous drop to make any serious money. The xau looks like it wants to head down to 65-66. I still like 4.40 silver and 277 gold as long as the xau stays above 65.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:45
sharefin (Anonymous donors leave gold coins in Salvation Army kettles) ID#284255:
-
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/wires2/1128/n_ap_1128_140.sml

----
THIS WEEKEND IT GETS SERIOUS
http://www.wbn.com:8080/
That nose is saying the global economy and markets are in for trouble big time in 1999. WBN lines up with the Yardeni scenario of a 70% likelihood of worldwide recession except that our number at this point is 99%. WBN believes the Y2K downturn will begin in 4Q99 as oil ratchets up to $30 due to a shutdown of non-Y2K-compliant oil producing wells in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Three events of this weekend will help shape Y2K going forward:

60 Minutes to Air Y2K Segment Sunday, November 29th

French Finance Minister Strauss-Kahn: Aircraft Worldwide To Be Grounded January 1, 2000

The NY Times Gives Y2K Top Billing
----------------------------------------------
Nuclear systems could crash in 2000, study says
http://www.gcn.com/gcn/1998/november23/6.htm

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:38
jims (Gollum) ID#252391:
I'd be interested in your gold Tbond chart but the URL you sent was a one day chart of the DOW. PLease is the correct URL available.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:36
Envy (@Gusto) ID#219363:
One more note: I like to get stuff to pay for itself. If you are on high ground, put the access point on your end and charge anyone with line-of-sight to your access point for wireless service, pass some of it on to your service provider for the bandwidth, and pocket the rest. Been there, done that, works great, everyone wins.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:36
jims (Some food forthe bears lunch) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Notice the McCellon ( sp ) ossilator and the summation index. Running out of steam..... Notice the osscilator - the red line - if we have a 200+ negative advance decline line on Monday the ossilator goes into negative territory, this will start pulling down the summation index which has spirted after having briefly stalled.

http://decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/McOsiSumCurrent.html

Keep an eye on this - if the oss goes negative I think we could have a drop of significance ( 5-10% ) - I'd rather see more rally in stocks a drift down in gold shares to Cyclist's Dec. 7th date - timing would be good then for a Christmas selloff and the commencement of the Euro anticipation rally in gold.

Watch the ossilator.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:32
CompGeek (Gollum) ID#343259:
Ahhh so. I see. No causal relationship at all, just immaterial patternings gaining significance by virtue of the mind-stuff being individuized and disturbed. Now I can relax. Really. I can. ... ... ooops. What's that? It feels like fur and claws!

Thanks. I feel better. The part about everyone looking at the same charts from their own point of view - that explains a lot. To expand the chess analogy... White's game looks different from Black's point of view. Off to a movie with the better third.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:32
Envy (@Gusto) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If your ISP is up for it, you just have to mount a small dish on top of their building and a dish on top of yours, facing each other of course. *grin*. You can get the exact alignment up and running after you get the equipment in place, one of the end devices has a power level meter that says how strong the signal is. I have verified the operation of this equipment and it works great. The installation I did had one failure in the two or three years it's been up, and that was because the power on one of the devices failed because a workman shut off the power at the fuse box. Weather doesn't seem to affect the devices either. The device itself is connected to the dish with up to a maximum of 50 feet of cable, the device is an indoor thing'y, the dish outdoor. The devices have ethernet connections on them ( 10base-T ) so you can just plug straight into them. One end-point has to be an access point which controls the LAN. Any number ( up to 256 I think ) end devices can be attached to the access point as long as they have line-of-sight, but each device reduces the bandwidth as it is shared across all end points. You can install multiple access points at the source to increase bandwidth in increments of 3megs up to I believe 18-21mbps. The access point installation runs a few thousand, about 2.5K$US I think, and the end-points depend on what you're using exactly. The end points can be a bridge, or a device that has one OR four ethernet ports to which you can attach ethernet devices. If you have more than four mac addresses, you'll have to use the bridge. The bridge installation costs about 500$US more than the access point installation. If you're within 600 feet or so of the access point you can also use a PCMCIA card that'll allow wireless access at the same speeds to the access point ( Look mom, no hands! ) . The security of the system is controlled through a token that is entered into each device, no other wireless device can connect to the LAN unless it knows the token, even if the device is from the same vendor. Once it's in place, it just works, and I recommend it whenever you have line of sight to bypass the phone companies expensive leased line rates. Here's the vendor for the equipment I used. End result: Pay 5K$US up front and avoid the 1K+$US the phone company will charge you per month for a T-1. Cheers.

http://www.breezecom.com/

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:30
Gollum (December gold / 30 year treasuries) ID#43349:
http://204.71.196.173:443/912295901150?User=Eric%20Scott%20Hunsader&Pswd=ewokers&DataType=GIF

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:24
CC (Snowbird, Mike Stewart, Selby and all other Canadians) ID#334219:
Copyright © 1998 CC/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It is unfortunate that Canada must go through this paradox again. Despite the fact that Bouchard is likely to be elected by more than 66% of the french quebeckers, the reality is that not more than 20-25% of the quebecquers are hard-core separatists. For that reason, I don't think ( and I must add... I hope ) that Q will never separate.

So that leaves us with two choices:

1 ) We continue to live with this uncertainty, with the liberals and the pequistes changing chairs every 4-8 years or,

2 ) we put an end to this circus and Canada agrees on constitutional changes that will satisfy the majority of the non-separatist quebecquers.

Don't ask me what Quebec want's... there are too many answers to this question. Our politicians all over Canada, not only those in Quebec, are responsible for this situation that has last for 3 decades now...

IMO, the move that will initiate a true solution to this problem is the election of a strong canadian prime minister from English Canada, that is fully bilingual and able to gather together all english canadians behind a formal proposal to Quebec.

Can we find that man.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:22
Gollum (@Envy ) ID#43349:
Exactly. The stiffer the requirements for the priveledge of giving you money the more you can get.

Kind of like the hedge funds.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:20
James (Another reason for substantial pullback next week-besides Barron's article) ID#252150:
on the equity mkts being at least 10% overvalued, according to Fed's
valuation model. ICE-an influential semi-conductor industry consultant is forecasting flat growth for 99. The analysts can in no way justify the hi P/Es that most semi Cos now sport.
Intel led the S&P up & I look for it to lead it back down starting Mon. Would'nt be surprised to see 200+ down day Mon. & 600 down for week.
If not & they somehow take it higher I will be adding to my shorts. They can't defy gravity & logic forever.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:17
Gusto (Envy: ISP connection) ID#42999:
Copyright © 1998 Gusto/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Envy: I was very interested in your suggestions to IDT for remote ISP connections using wireless ethernet. I happen to live more or less ( some tree foliage ) within line-of-site to my friendly ISP provider, about a 1 mile shot. Do you have some names of suppliers for appropriate hardware? Posting might be of interest to some, or if you wish you can E-Mail me at det@opus1.com. 1-3 mbps would be great. I also have a DirecTV satellite system which works very well. They do offer an internet down channel on one of their products, but you still have to have a back channel. I haven't heard if anyone has used this with satisfaction yet. Thanks for your ideas, on gold of course.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:12
Envy (@Gollum) ID#219363:
Good thing to keep in mind if you're a business person trying to put together financing for a project. Just go into it with the feeling that money is just another part of the equation, and be very careful about who you'll accept it from. Kinda get in the frame of mind that investors should feel priviledged that you might let them in on the deal. So many business people seem desperate when they're looking for money to do something, and THEY are doing all the work! : )

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:12
Nick@C (From Auric--read the last couple of lines.) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Denmark's state Central Bank has begun stockpiling cash in an effort to convince customers that *customer* stockpiling is not necessary. This report says, We want people to know that we have enough notes so there is no reason to start hoarding.

Denmark is doing this by slowing the destruction of bank notes. This is one of the strategies that could be pursued by the Federal Reserve if increased demand nails U.S. banks. But the Fed has also increased their order for additional cash, something Denmark apparently doesn't plan to do. Furthermore, U.S. banks are ramping up a huge public relations machine to convince banking customers they don't actually need to access their own money. The name-calling game has already begun, and the FDIC, as reported here over the last few days, is even now attempting to use the fear of criminal investigation to discourage the withdrawing of cash.


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:08
Gollum (@General ) ID#43349:
They might.

On the other hand, they might be carefully only putting a small percentage into gold or silver, just in case.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:06
Gollum (@Envy ) ID#43349:
Or at least makes the attempt.

The speculator tries to back the right businessman.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:06
General (gates and buffett) ID#365216:
If Bill and Warren were real smart, wouldn't they have a few billion
( pocket change ) in Gold, Platinum, and Silver JUST IN CASE.
I know I would ( and so did Celine Dion, Jackie Onassis, not to mention
several other smart people ) .

Go gold, plat, and silver.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:04
Gollum (Kondratieff) ID#43349:
http://www.amshar.com/intro.theory/megatopics/kondratieff.html

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 18:01
Cyclist (jims) ID#339274:
You don't sound ,you have much fun.I do,trading is like surfing.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:59
Envy (Indonesian Rupiah) ID#219363:
Interesting graph below, people were giving them away. Ruble graph looks like that but hasn't start gaining back any of it's value vs. the $US, will it ? Hmm. Tis the question.

@Gollum: Difference between an investors and a business man ? Investor buys assets and passively hopes they appreciate. Business man buys assets and actively MAKES them appreciate. *grin*

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:59
Cueball (Gusto Oro @Wis) ID#344286:
I still have property up at Boulder Jct. The Muskie Capitol of the World

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:58
ERLE (It's touching, the deference to IDT's move to Ann Arbor, Michigan) ID#190411:
Copyright © 1998 ERLE/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Firstly, there ain't no wilds in that part of the state, unless you consider the fever swamp maintained by the sappy taxpayers of the one- time Sovereign State of Michigan.
It would be my pleasure to see the socialist cell that is the seat of higher learning go through a forty-eight hour Y2K cleansing process.
In my state, I'd rejoice with the cutoff of electricity to the misnamed University of wesconsinnnn.
I do recall the bilgewater that flowed from the professoriat.
Mole had it right when he had a link to a critique on econ texts.
I came away from that dump with an attitude, which, obviously, I haven't lost.
I did go on to advise a dissipated heir of an insurance bundle of the merit of gold. He made twelve million on it.
The truly foul creatures that rule us at their momentarily noticed time of fame are going to make me a pile.
Maybe not, but, you can still carry a visceral hatred for them, can't you?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:52
Gollum (Whooping in the dark) ID#43349:
The stockmarket analyst looks a leading economic indicators to get a glimpse of where the stock market will go. The economist looks at the price of stocks to get a hint of how the economy is going to do. The gold bug looks at bond prices and the bondsman looks at gold prices.

They all look at charts and all analyze fundamentals.

None are as rich as Gates or Buffet.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:40
Envy (@Crystal Ball) ID#219363:
Nah, nothing to be gained from tormenting this forum w/ ugly gold graphs : )

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:38
SDRer (There is a currency to fit your every need. And it is the same currency! ) ID#93135:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
in a different 'mood'...

When comparing the yen across USD, XEU and SDR & Gold SDR, one gets the VERY strong feeling it is being 'positioned'. Take a look.
11/9/98-
XEU:JPY-- 140.289
SDR:JPY-- 170.060 [XAU:SDR:JPY-- 151.1274]
USD:JPY-- 119.660
11/10/98
XEU:JPY- 143.076
SDR:JPY- 170.410 [XAU:SDR:JPY-- 151.4384]
USD:JPY-- 122.570

11/16/98
XEU:JPY-- 143.429
SDR:JPY-- 166.940 [XAU:SDR:JPY-- 148.3547]
USD:JPY-- 121.550
etcetcetc

I peel and portion
A tangerine and spit the pips and feel
The drunkeness of things being various.
Louis Macneice, Snow


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:37
Gollum (@CompGeek) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
We tend, particularly in our western society, to look for causality in places where often it does not exist.

We say, a bird flies because a bird has wings. Yet there are things ( like penguins ) which have wings and do not fly as well as things which fly ( like balloons ) yet have no wings.

Bonds and the price of gold move loosely together. They are both affected by the cost of money as opposed to the cost of things. One can look at either and get a hint of the other.

At times either can be the canary in the coal mine.

Once the Japanese situation is thought to have been reconciled, money will flow back to the land of the rising sun.

Many times our problem in interpreting the flow of events is our own mind. It enables us to see things which are not there or to fail to see things which are there.

In olden days this was a survival feature. The man who took off running when he glimpsed stripes in the underbrush survived a lot more often than the man who had to also feel fur and claws.

Nowadays it tends to make for a lot of misdirected running.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:36
Envy (Currencies) ID#219363:
Anyone think it's time to buy the Rupiah or the Ruble ? They're both looking pretty beat up, question is, will the continue to get beat up as much as they are now ? *grin* What are the chances that any currency is going to out-perform the $US in the long run ? Anybody ?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:32
Crystal Ball (@ Envy) ID#287404:
now plot gold vs. the Yen over the same time frame- - - ughh!

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:26
jims (Can I take this to the bank? CYCLIST) ID#252391:
Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 15:53
Cyclist ( Cycles and seasons ) ID#339274:
Gold will be under pressure until DEC 7.stockmarket going to
alltime highs and crude sagging,wonderful world for the USD.

Seems pretty much in keeping with the fashion of the moment.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:26
Who Cares? (CompGeek confounded by complexities of the economic system :)) ID#244450:

Welcome to the club.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:26
ORCA (Interesting news from a junior exploration firm.) ID#231337:
Copyright © 1998 ORCA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
For those following junior mining interests, note the following in what appears to be a very encouraging opportunity. Madison, a junior exploration operation in Vancouver, Canada ( partnered with CPC of Australia ) has announced excellent results from their site in Papua New Guinea. Their site, Mt. Kare is located some 8 - 12 kms' from Placer Dome's very productive site ( reserves of about 25 M oz, and producing 1M oz / year ) at Porgera. The resource calc. has been completed by an excellent firm, and all indications are very conservative. Here's a brief summary:

Watts Griffis McQuat released their calculation of gold resource ( equivalents ) at a 1.0 g/t cut off 4.0 mill oz gold and at a 1.5 g/t cut off 3.80 mill oz gold. This covers only about 20% of Mt. Kare possible targets. The resource calculation is from a total of 109 holes - - they have now completed 130 holes with results awaited.

Madison's announcement is at http://www.madison-enterprises.com/news/nr-981126.htm

As always.... remember, this is a junior and so they are a long way from the goal line. But very interesting never the less.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:22
jims (Try this SWC chart) ID#252391:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/_charts/achart.htx

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:21
crossbow (@Gollum) ID#342397:
Thanks for the site. Some interesting links to follow.


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:20
powmain (Big Al is not responsible) ID#225127:
Copyright © 1998 powmain/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The AG only provides the oil for the FIRE, HE dosen't put out FIRES.

Below was cut out of an article By Jim McTague in this weeks Barrons.

Greenspan told Lindsey: I spent all of my working life observing how the
economy functions. I was at various times a specialist in virtually every majorindustry and generally knowledgeable about the remainder. When you gothrough every industry over your lifetime, you should know how the systemworks.As a result, Greenspan was able to distinguish a strong economy from aninflationary one and deal effectively with the supply shock, Lindsey relates.The Fed's policies have had the side effect of creating an asset bubble, thestock market being a prime example. But Greenspan told Lindsey that it isn'tthe Fed's job to prick the bubble: It presumes you know more than themarket. There is also a problem of timing. You might prick it too soon, inwhich case it comes back and you might make it larger the next time. There isalso the very interesting question as to whether the central bank is intervening appropriately in the market. This raises some fascinating questions about what ourauthority is and who makes the judgment that there actually is a bubble.Lindsey writes that Greenspan is optimistic that a big correction in stockswon't derail the economy: Remember the big one-day decline we had backin October 1987? Its impact on the economy was not all that great. Thenthere was the severe decline in stock prices in Japan early this decade. True,it took growth out of the system, but most of what they have experienced since is the result of an increasingly corrosive nonperforming-loan problem. There's no guarantee that even if you get a 1929, you'll end up with a 1932.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:20
jims (To APH re SWC) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/_charts/achart.htx

Above I have attmpted to bring in a chart of SWC - STillwater Mining

New all time highs the day before Thanksgiving. Recent advances have been made on lower than average volumn which suggests to me a pull back is very likely to the break out area around 34. This and a pont below should provide a good buying and adding opportunity.

SWC recently has acted with very little correlation with the PD and PT markets. It has rather gone up with the stock market. The security is about 70% owned be institutions and mutual funds. I believe $2 a share will be seen for 1999's earnings. When 50 cents of that is posted in April following the company's first set of results abscent the effects of the $135 PD hedge, the stock will trade at $50.

For me the stock has good medium term potential, great long term potential ( internet like ) but is slightly overbought currently and due for a pullback.

APH - still bearish the metals and bullish stocks, I presume.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:12
SDRer (The Power of One Price, revisited…) ID#246299:
The Power of One Price, revisited…
Friday, November 27, 1998
1 Chinese Yuan Renminbi = 14.8293 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen ( JPY ) = 0.06743 Chinese Yuan Renminbi ( CNY )

Friday, November 27, 1998
1 Gold ( oz. ) = 36,367.7 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen ( JPY ) = 0.00002750 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU )

Friday, November 27, 1998
1 Gold ( oz. ) = 2452.42 Chinese Yuan Renminbi
1 Chinese Yuan Renminbi ( CNY ) = 0.0004078 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU )

3P Price of Gold--Yuan Renminbi 36367.7 mmmmh

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:11
CompGeek (Gollum Geez, now I'm even more confused.) ID#343259:
Copyright © 1998 CompGeek/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Silverbaron showed me some nice charts explaining that the long bond acts as a leading indicator for gold. Here, this economist in the article says that gold is telling him what the long bond will do.

Then the contrarian view saying that gold looks like it's put in a bottom.

Then we talk about yields of 4.x percent in the same breath as Returns of 17.x percent this year, and I'm honestly confused. Mix this with the fact that we know ( don't we? ) that gold is a manipulated price, then what, pray tell does the POG tell us about anything?

I understand your explanation that Japan has not opened the kimono on the banking situation yet, AND MAY NEVER!, and that future rate cuts on the USD are imminent, for whatever reason, liquidity, bond market, etc, keeping the UDS strong relative to JPY. Lets say Japan said, OK here's the sad story we are upside down x The market factors that in, and life moves on. Do JPY start flowing back to Japan then? If USD rate is getting lower, then the yen carry trade is out of business, no? ( Borrow Yen, buy USD, use interest on USD to pay JPY interest, put rest in pocket, repeat )

It's too much really for me to try to understand in a direct causal manner, like you do x and y happens. My understanding of these issues is like playing chess. There are certain Threats, and influences apparent by a certain move, but there is another player with another mind in the game. More like driving a boat instead of a train. Anyway, I'm trying to understand the forces at play here, even in isolation, and it's a bit daunting.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 17:03
Envy (Riddle) ID#219363:
Q: What looks worse than gold long term vs. the dollar ?
A:

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 16:46
APH___b (SWC) ID#255226:
Any news on Stillwater Mining. It looks good technically and as long
as ther is no more dumping the stock could move higher, especially
being listed on the AMEX were there are over zealous shorts.
( by dumping I mean of the metals themselves )

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 16:38
Envy (Savings, RE: Portfolio Valuations) ID#219363:
So in essense, savings = powder that hasn't been burned on assets, debt, etc.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 16:34
Crystal Ball (http://www.coinprices.com/cdn/grey_art.htm) ID#287367:
Anybody want to see how hot $20 Saints are lately?
Current Coin Dealer Newsletter ( Grey Sheet )

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 16:34
Envy (Portfolio Valuations) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
This all speaks to a wider challenge and that is simply calculating the value of your portfolio. When I get a sheet from my broker, it always strikes me that there is a dollar value beside the assets in my account, and I'm constantly aware that those assets are not dollar denominated. What I mean is, it may say on there that I have a thousand shares of something, and show that as a 10000$US asset, but it's not that at all, it's a thousand shares of something or other, and that's all it is. Just because my car is worth 30000$US doesn't mean I have 30000$US in savings, liquidation of that car requires a buyer, it's not cash, it's barely even an asset because it's value depreciates so quickly. An ounce of gold is an ounce of gold, not 300$US. An acre of land is an acre of land, a house is a house. That's the challenge behind calculating the REAL US savings base. The average guy on the street might show a million dollars on paper, but it's usually just a bunch of paper, a house, some dollars, and the odd vehicle or two. Most assets are not savings because they require a market for liquidation. I think savings should be savings, not a representation of total assets.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 16:32
IDT (Thanks for the input on internet hookups. What a talented group here.) ID#228136:
Copyright © 1998 IDT/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Envy: I haven't found a home yet so I won't know the exact setup until I get there. I may be back in touch if you don't mind.

General: A lot of considerations went into the decision to live in the country. Y2K and other possible breakdowns in our high tech and low moral society are a factor but not at the top of the list. Our main reason for moving to the country is because we like it and because its a good place to raise kids. I think we will have a greater sense of well being there if that makes sense. I would rather pick a more remote spot but I have to go where the job is until I salt enough away to retire. If and when gold takes off, I will.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 16:30
Gollum (@CompGeek ) ID#43352:
Today. 15:57

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 16:29
Gollum (@crossbow) ID#43352:
http://www.sciam.com/askexpert/physics/physics32.html

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 16:24
CompGeek (Gollum re Bonds and Goldfinger) ID#343259:
Thanks. Do you have a date/time for that post, or ... how to find?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 16:20
Squirrel (Mike@09:53 and Mooney@12:10 re separatism) ID#280214:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
There is a parallel in some American states where a large city or dominant region controls the politics of the entire state. I speak of Colorado where the West Slope chafes under the rule of Denver, of North & Western Pennsylvania which is estranged from Philadelphia & environs, of the UP of Michigan which no doubt feels the same toward Detroit.
Perhaps the rest of Canada should separate from Quebec.
Though once that process begins, perhaps each province will go its own way just as in the US where a few hundred states and even several independant nations could result from such separitism. Hopefully each of these separate nations/states could get along better than those in the Balkans.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 16:18
Aldebaran (Goldbug23 the impending Crash) ID#256361:
Copyright © 1998 Aldebaran/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I understand PE ratio's, and I have a very vauge understanding of the other stock indicators you mentioned. But thats part of my point. I see lots of analogies used to describe why there will be a crash, but the analogies don't seem to indicate how bad it could be. It pops into my mind that these past 10 years or so the stock market is like skydiving. Freefall is extrodianry fun. The longer it lasts the more fun it is. Thats where the stock market is at, a phase of a cycle where all the pleasure is. But in skydiving, you really have to pull the rip cord. You don't want to because it ends the fun, but if you don't the fun will last a bit longer and then be abrubtly ended anyway.

When I opened my commodities trading account the broker was concerned, he wanted all kinds of personal details, I had to prove to his satisfaction that the money I was wiring him really was discretionary and not the 6 year olds college fund. At a number of times in a number of ways he made sure that I knew this money was at RISK of going away forever. As it is, options won't be written, covered or not from my account, unless I have a very long thourogh chat with him.

But with 401k plan, perticularly for blue collar workers, the human resources person hands you some forms and smiles and explains how you can automaticlly SAVE money with this plan, and how that money can grow. Somewhere in the fine print I'm sure it's mentioned that there is the possibility of risk. But this isn't mentioned or if it is it is in the context of past performance over oh say the last 10 years.

In july as the djia was dropping to 7500 I mentioned at work to the smokeing club that lots of people were getting hurt. I didn't say who I was thinking of, and I was surprised to see shrugs and expressions to the effect, well thats not us, thats rich people who invest in stocks. I guess they think mutual funds are money printing companies.

So what could happen is maybe as soon as monday, Big and smart money leaves the stocks, and it drops maybe as low as 6000, but lots of little money keeps flowing in. The market recovers and Big Smart money looks astonished and elated to see that the BULL can't die. So they go back in. This could repeat itself alot. Each time reinforcing the idea of this immortal bull and converting anybody stupid or smart from being bearish to bullish. But Jack and Jill @ 7.40.wage don't know they have a ripcord, don't know where it is and don't know that they should pull it. Big Money knows all these things, but the actions of stupid money have taught big money that they don't need to pull the ripcord even though the altimiter is showing some scary readings.

You mentioned PE ratios, so what is the PE ration for Yahoo? Reason has departed, and the ground is coming up very fast. You can't make a rational prediction where the stock market should top, well I guess you could, but it's probably around 3000-5000. I have read a bit very recently about elliot wave analysis, maybe it works maybe not, I don't know, but if its is the study of mass psycology, I doubt it takes into account that lots of the market participents, don't know that they are participents. Theres going to be a splat sound, maybe soon, maybe a long time from now, but it won't be anything like it was in the late 20's. We have circuit breakers now. Think thats good? Day after day those circuit breakers will pop on the way down. Night after night it will be on the news, one of the nights some talking head will mention that this could just might possibly affect 401k's and Jack_and_Jill@wage.slave.inc Civilizations have collapsed from alot less. Oh, my wife is home, she got batteries for flashlights and I have to go play light saber with my 4yr old.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 16:10
crossbow (@JTF) ID#342397:
Since this is a slow day.....
I have read with interest your posts on Zero Point Energy. Is there a site you know of that offers an overview to the layman.

Many thanks.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 16:06
snowbird (Mike Stewart & Mooney You both are exactly right) ID#285392:
Copyright © 1998 snowbird/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
We cannot afford Quebec any longer. I wish they would take their per capita share of the national debt and just go, the litany becomes tiresome. If memory serves correctly we in B.C. pay 11 billion $ to the federal govt and get back 2 billion per yr. Guess where the rest goes? Manitoba lost the main Canadian National Railway headquarters and the Trans-Canada Airlines ( now Air Canada ) To Montreal as two examples of the continuous drains on their economy. The reason for this is that the elections are over at the Ontario border. The West does not have enough population to influence the vote. Alberta and British Columbia would be better off going it alone. I'm all for a united Canada without those who are determined to destroy it. GOODBY TO THE DISSATISFIED ONES AND GOOD RIDDANCE!

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 16:05
JTF (Savings rate -- must log off for chores) ID#210282:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Envy,2BROTB: According to Harry Dent, the aging baby boomers in the US have a bimodal savings rate -- peaking at ages 35-44, and 55 to 70 or so. The gap is due to the expense of educating their children. Could be that most baby boomers in the US have kids in college now. Hence the negative savings rate. Of course it is not really that simple.

On the other hand, I see little evidence of saving in the US with the exception of real estate and retirement - 403b, 401k,IRA accounts. Few people keep their money in banks these days to earn 1% interest. No tax advantage by keeping cash in the bank.

So -- perhaps the data is skewed. The measurements may not be focused on the right source of info.

I am looking forward to Harry Dent's prediction of a US spending wave, peaking around 2010. Problem is -- we have to get over the hurdle of the next two years or so without a world-wide financial collapse.

It is exciting to be in the middle of the information revolution -- something that rivals the industrial revolution. I think we will have a little winnowing out near y2k.


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 16:03
TheMissingLink (Savings) ID#373403:
Personal savings are estimated by subtracting consumer spending from take-home wage income.

Even if this fails to account for 401K and non-monetary executive compensation, it is very telling indeed. The fact that it was negative means that people were dipping into their 401K savings. It also means that there is no unspent money being used to retire debt. With personal debt at 99% of personal income and a negative savings rate, this consuption driven economy is running on vapors.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 16:03
Gollum (@CompGeek ) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
We have yet to see the full extent of the problems in the Japanese banking system. Until all the cards are on the table the yen can not strengthen to any great extent ( except mometary usurges associated with unwinding of hedge fund carry trade ) .

The markets feel that there are further rate cuts by the Fed forthcoming. The US dollar will not weaken untill:

1 ) Flight money sees better opportunity at home than safety in the US.

or

2 ) It is felt there will be no more rate cuts coming as the economy slows.

See my post on Bonds and the gold finger.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 16:02
General (Asian crisis spurs suicides in Korea; will Y2K/US Crash do the same?) ID#365216:
Copyright © 1998 General/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9811/28/asia.suicide/

If only Uncle BIll would do the honorable thing.

But seriously, there is always hope; suicide should never be an
option. God loves us all and wants us to be with Him; suicide
is the final rejection of God. Hopefully, God will have mercy on
many suicides and take into account their state of mind before
He passes Judgement as only He can do. Never dispair over material
things; do what you can and must but never forget God's love for
you.

Got God, gold, guns, grub, and generators?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 15:59
Envy (@2br02b?) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Good thing they don't include capital gains *grin*. Imagine what the savings rate number would be if capital gains turned into net capital losses. It'd sure go negative real quick. Agree that including the capital gains tax w/o including the gains makes the number more negative, but it's hard to disassociate capital gains and losses from personal income at a tax level because the gain or loss is so woven into the way that personal income is calculated for tax purposes. Away from all that: Capital gains that have not been realized are imaginary. I don't think anyone who holds 10000 shares of GE stock actually thinks that's part of their savings, if they do then there's a problem. 10000 shares of GE stock that have been SOLD for curreny market, now that's money. Same for real estate, it's not worth anything until someone buys it. If/when the economy eventually heads south ( it always does at some point ) , then all kinds of mystery money isn't going to be there anymore.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 15:57
Gollum (Bonds and the gold finger) ID#43349:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news2.cgi?T=news2_ft_topww.ht&s=329971882

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 15:56
CompGeek (@Cyclist) ID#343259:
And what happens on the 7th? A sneak attack by the JPY on the USD?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 15:53
Cyclist (Cycles and seasons) ID#339274:
Gold will be under pressure until DEC 7.stockmarket going to
alltime highs and crude sagging,wonderful world for the USD.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 15:53
CompGeek (Gollum (or other who might explain)) ID#343259:
Copyright © 1998 CompGeek/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I've just had a look at the USD vs JPY chart. It looks like we are in for an intersection of the 60 day MA at a fairly sharp rise. What I don't understand is this. If the Fed lowered 3 times recently, shouldn't that make the USD weaker? If so, why is the JPY still weaker? Also, a big hike in Friday gold and silver lease rates. Last time that happened, I thought, Wow, here we go, the gold carry trade is becoming less profitable, so what happened. Gold went DOWN. It just does not make sense to me. Can you shed some light on what I'm not considering. ( I know, Gambler last time remarked about naive people ) I'd say only that I don't yet understand the forces at play. It seems like gold Ought to go up on that Lease news. It seems like the JPY should strengthen with USD rate cuts. but it doesn't seem to work out that way.
What I would like to know, is my basic thinking OK, and there are other factors I'm not considering, or is my basic thinking flawed.
TIA -cg

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 15:49
2BR02B? (Envy-more) ID#266105:
-

from the web--

The personal savings rate is not -0.2%. This statistic is merly an artifact of the fact that economic statistics created to monitor the Industrial Age have not kept up with what is happening in society. Personal savings are not estimated by adding up people's bank, brokerage and 401K savings accounts. Personal savings are estimated by subtracting consumer spending from take-home wage income. This savings estimate fails in two ways. First, savings in 401K plans are completely excluded from personal savings statistics. Even if economists haven't noticed, many people have the bulk of their savings in their 401K account. Second, gain-sharing arrangements are not counted as personal income. An increasing portion of personal compensation is in the form of gain-sharing arrangements such as stock options, company stock, profit-sharing and so forth. Economists haven't noticed the advent of widespread gain-sharing and thus keep no formal statistics on this form of personal income. By ignoring gain-sharing and not counting 401k's as savings, economists systematically undersestimate personal savings. The only remedy for for this is for economists to create a new set of Digital Age economic statistics which properly include gain-sharing as income and 401k's as savings.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 15:37
2BR02B? () ID#266105:

Envy-- dunno the quantifications which would be interesting.
Taking all into account...gains taxes subtracted from the
savings rate as calculated while ignoring the doubling and
redoubling of the market...I would imagine a different
picture. Don't forget real estate.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 15:33
JTF (Detecting gravity waves and black holes) ID#210282:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: A little diversion for you all, while we wait for the next gold rally. Sort of like watching paint dry sometimes. This site is worth a little browsing -- I like the concept of Gravity waves causing wrinkles in time. Don't know what is lost when Gravity waves are emitted -- something must leave the binary star or whatever the source is. This LIGO device, used to detect gravity waves, is fascinatingly like Michelson's interferemeter. Michelson failed to detect the Aether, but now we are looking for Black Holes and Gravity Waves with a similar device. Poetic justice of sorts, IMHO.

http://www.ncsa.uiuc.edu/Cyberia/NumRel/LIGO.html#LaserInterfere


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 15:20
Envy (@2br02b?) ID#219363:
But isn't that how it was always calculated ? If yes, the trend is still down, which is the important piece of information about the savings rate. Unless the formula was just changed, the trend has been down for a while now.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 15:14
2BR02B? (lies, &%#@ lies, statistics) ID#266105:

A couple of caveats on net negative American savings.
Capital gains are not included in savings yet taxes
on gains are included in expenditures subtracted from
the savings figure. Herein lies unaccounted trillions.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 15:09
Envy (@IDT) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Really depends on a lot of things. Usually what I do when I start up a venture in a new area is check around to see exactly where the local ISP's have their boxes, then figure out the shortest and easiest way to get there. One particular installation I did involved simply buying a few wireless ethernet boxes and putting them up on the roof, that particular solution requires line-of-sight to the provider, or a nice high place to put a box you can bounce off of ( say, on top of a local mountain ) . That'll get you about 1-3mbps which, of course, rocks all over the world of cable modems and dial-up connections. That solution costs about 2K$US per node, gets you about 30miles with the right dish, requires line-of-sight, does NOT require any FCC entanglements ( spread spectrum ) and is free forever once it's installed ( you still have to pay your service provider for the bandwidth, however ) . The boxes are so low power that you could set up a y2k battery solar cell combo to run them, which is especially nice if you're dropping a box on a mountain top to gain line-of-sight to somewhere. All kinds of other options, that's just an example of a recent project. I think we'd all need to know more about the site and how far away your provider would be to give good advice.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 14:58
Squirrel (Stores of Value - Gold vs other stuff) ID#280214:
Gold stores physical effort and material wealth. But what of information, ideas, and human creativity? Much of why we have attained what we have is the fruit of human minds - but how does one store that value? Now there is a question for us weekend philosophers.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 14:49
CompGeek (@esotericist Islamic Dinar @NickC Kerosine) ID#343259:
Copyright © 1998 CompGeek/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Esotericist:

Let's look at it from a different POV...that of gold as equalizer. Gold is gold is gold. There might be some politicialness to it when stamped or cast in a form, but when remelted and restamped, is is apolitical again. If any bloc, religious ( Muslim for example ) or national ( gee, pick your favorite gold-loving country, say Russia ) were to say, We're tired of being manipulated by people with printing presses, and we'd like to have honest money, an honest store of value, and we believe that gold, for all the reasons given throughout history will accomplish this for us, and we are going to use gold for currency only in our country ( bloc ) , then 1 ) Would it be possible? 2 ) How much gold would it use up to have Russia go 100% Gold backed. IE: Paper notes REDEEMABLE for fixed weight of gold. If there is not enough gold for the whole world to go this way, then how many countries could? I see references to All the gold mined in the history of the world would only fill a cube 66 feet on a side. You;d think, as long as I've heard that, that it would be at least 67 feet by now. :- ) The only thing I see wrong with the current gold situation, is that gold is not being allowed to be what it is...money. From your esoteric standpoint, if something is not allowed to be what it is, the pressure buildup for change is incredible.

You mention working together. I think, that people, put in a room with each other will tend to get along. I also think that national and religious division accomplish 2 opposite goals... 1 ) They *expand* the feeling of identity to something larger than a ) myself b ) my family c ) my community to d ) My country. But, at the same time, they limit the further expansion to e ) my planet, or e ) my solar system. The NWO folks would just love to use that rationale to expand their agenda. The problem with the NWO is that the question who gets to control it?' is unanswered. Up until now, nation states have been a hedge against total one-world-control, and the limits, engendering fighting, and hate are the price to pay. But, one could argue, that the powers-behind-the-nations merely manipulate one against another for their own ends. I don't know what the reality is, but I don't have any difficulty in imagining 1 ) That it ALL is controlled or that 2 ) No one could possibly control it. Put me down as undecided.

Further, you ask Do you think you could get agreement from any two Islamic banking groups any more than you can get agreement from any two or more other groups of people with their own vested interests. OPEC ! European Union, APEC etc.

No, I think you are right. However, if gold is gold is gold, do I really care if some Dubai banker decides to charge a fee instead of interest ( Interest being against the teaching of Islam as I understand it ) , the world will still turn. The question is, can I get gold?

@Nick: Kero Fridge with Fiberglass walls, man. Uncontrolled fire is just plain dangerous.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 14:30
Gusto Oro (IDT...) ID#430260:
I live near Wausau, Wisconsin in the northern part of the state. Anyone who can call toll-free to Wausau has a choice of 9 providers toll-free. I'm sure Ann Arbor has more as Wausau is only 40,000 population. --AG

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 14:21
General (info on Certified Mint, Inc.) ID#365216:
Copyright © 1998 General/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
See President Bill Haynes' website at:

www.certifiedmint.com


For seventeen years, CMI has published Monetary Digest, a newsletter
which deals with economic, political, and social matters that affect the
precious metals markets. To gather meaningful content for Monetary
Digest, Bill Haynes, the editor, reads dozens of publications with
subscriptions costing thousands of dollars a year. Many clients brag of
having copies of Monetary Digest going back fifteen years.

Recent issues have covered the economic turmoil in Southeast Asia, the
stock market mania, the Millennium Bug, Japan's near bankruptcy, and the
impact of central bank selling on the gold market. The October 1997 issue
exposed the lie of a balanced federal budget, a lie that continues to be
perpetuated. Regularly, Monetary Digest updates the latest
supply/demand fundamentals for gold, silver, and platinum.

Furthermore, Monetary Digest alerts readers to scams which offer
overpriced coins, medallions, and so-called collectibles. The money
saved by not buying such rip-offs more than pays the Monetary Digest's
cost of $59 for twelve issues. Investors placing a minimum order of ten
ounces of gold or platinum or 1,000 ounces of silver receive free the next
twelve issues.

For a back issue of Monetary Digest, e-mail bill@certifiedmint.com

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 14:02
tolerant1 (IDT, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...if you can get running water and electricity you) ID#31867:
are not moving to the country...if you WILL be getting water from a well and generating your OWN electricity you may wish to look into a small satellite dish...

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 14:02
gagnrad (Mooney* re your 12:10) ID#43460:
Gotcha! ( 8-^] ) Remember? Politics equals power equals armies equals gold! IMHO

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 13:55
General (to IDT) ID#365216:
Is your move Y2K inspired or do you just like the country?

That is all.

Sorry, don't know the answer to your question.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 13:43
SDRer (It would appear… (Maybe! Perhaps? Might it be?)) ID#246299:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sure looks compelling in the model?

Might be that calibration central revolves around the actual XPT/XAU ratio ( from, e.g., Oanda ) as a match to the daily quote of XPT:XEU.

And, the actual quote XPT:XAU, when things are working as they ought-from cb pov-will equal SDR:XEU. {Yes! )

Further: ( 1 ) it appears that key 'trainers' are 'shoelaced' to key 'runners' ( sorry-bad pun-blame it on the holidays ) for example
11/17/98-when things were mathematically 'correct'-
XAU;XEU = 249.407
XPT:XDR = 249.700
And
XPT:XEU = 294.031
XAU:USD = 294.500
All of which aligned USD and XEU through the maze of XEU:USD=1.18; SDR:XEU=1.18 and the calibrator-XPT:XAU=1.18

And, this puts the entire fiat relationship index ( that long list of fiats and PM ratios that made your eyes glaze over ) neatly and tightly in line.

All of which may mean that gold has an upside here to 300-305.
Early, EARLY days on this work…so please take it all as 'ponder material', NOT put hard money down facts.
Enjoy your holiday. Ciao {:- ) )


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 13:42
IDT (Moving to Michigan) ID#228136:
I'm moving to a country location and am wondering how I will maintain an internet connection. Most providers only cover major urban areas and I don't wish to incur a toll fee every time I log on. Could some of you country gentry advise me on how you handle your hookup. I am aware of call packs where for an extra fee you can extend your local calling radius, and internet via cable T.V. service. I don't know whether these services are available where I am heading ( Ann Arbor area ) . Is there anything else I might look into? Thanks in advance.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 13:34
mapleman (go gold) ID#350288:

Just had to post today but had nothing to say. go gold

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 13:11
AGMan (death) ID#254386:
The current cnn headline relates to the increasing suicides in Asia. The situation is not improving. The only thing buoying asian stock markets is the last-ditch attempt to make fast bucks before depression. It is inevitable. The psychology of the mainstream has changed. The West will surely follow.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 12:57
Cage Rattler () ID#33182:
For Erle... you could try http://www.mst.co.za as an online broker - they seem to be the forerunner.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 12:44
hugo (charts) ID#404312:
Copyright © 1998 hugo/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

dachick, thanks o the lease rate info

lots of incentive for keeping gold in the toilet-- Bloomberg news 11:52 ( sorry, webtv can't send you there ) . trillions floating around in stocs and bonds and don't want to spook Greenspan so they protect their investments by keeping gold low, bonds high. Just not enough ammo to boost gold.

Charts do still look promising. Monthly gold is about to post a higher close than Oct. Dec looks like at least a rise to 320. Monthly silver is ambiguous.
Weekly gold is also very positive with three weeks trying to break down. Sideways market at the very least. The low of 4 weeks ago should have given way if we're headed lower. Been forming head and shoulders bottom for last 25 weeks. Been a year going sideways. weekly silver looks precarious, or maybe just well supported. three months. It too should have busted through support, but didn't.
Dailygold may be in oneof those steady climbs that everyone expects to crash through support but doesn't. Head & shoulders bottom very evident. Wish US markets had been open fri to see how low they could have taken it and how much support there was. Good EU support fri and good lease rate news may keep that drop through support line from happening. The rising curve may yet turn over but just as likely is a break upward. Weekly chart tells me if wee break down to Nov lows we will be in a long sideways mode. Daily silver looks weak, but that's good news so far since Aug and Oct lows are holding and we're approaching a cyce low-Aug low midpoint between May low and Nov-Dec low. If the low doesn't come by Wednesday, it is already in and it should be up up and away

Always ( almost ) the optmist--gogoldnsilver

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 12:21
Mole (@Mooney*) ID#34883:
I'll take your cue...only Gold.

Hear is some ancient gold art:
http://falcon.cc.ukans.edu/~hoopes/objects.htm

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 12:17
Mooney* (@ Mike Stewart and ALL - Toronto Get Together) ID#350194:
Mike - BTW - If we make the Toronto Kitcoite Luncheon/Dinner on, say, Dec. 11 or 12th - will you be able to mke it? How about the rest of you? As per previous posts ALL are invited to attend for the purpose of meeting fellow Kitcoites in an atmoshere of camraderie, good food and good cheer!
E-mail me at: moonstep@idirect.com with suggestions and for updates.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 12:10
Mooney* (@Mike Stewart @Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 09:53) ID#350194:
Copyright © 1998 Mooney*/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mike - Since it is so terribly slow here this morning I will break my own rules and make a political post. After BEGGING the Americans, after thousands of political posts, to cease and desist, ( and yet the beat goes on ) , I guess we are allowed one or two of our own. I just want to say that, Sad to Say, every word you say in your 9:53 is EXACTLY right. I love Canada, but we have been duped and abused for too long by the whiners who get everything their own way and yet are still never happy. Its a tragedy but this endless angst cannot go on for another 30 years. Time to divide the assets and kick the cry baby out of the house. Trouble is - even this process will take 15 years of agony as every last toothpick will be argued over.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 11:56
Mole (Miseducation) ID#34883:
Gene Epstein of Barron's is one of the outstanding economic
journalists of our time, and he also deeply influence by Misesian
theory. Here are excerpts from his November 23, 1998, column
on economics texts: Wrong Lessons
The trouble with economics textbooks

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?FS=%3Ch3%3EMiseducation

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 11:45
MoReGoLd (@Dabchick) ID#348129:
Are you on Silicon Investor ?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 11:42
MoReGoLd (@Thanks Dabchick for the LR info (and QTR)) ID#348129:
Looks like Fridays rates soared. Hope it translates to highter prices fast,
and helps my seniors.
The new year will turn Golden IMO. On the TSE, watch QTR, it has broken out on bullish plays, and may have a very explosive week.....

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 11:37
Envy (@Mike Stewart) ID#219363:
We had a couple of states pick up their stuff and leave the party once, but I hear it didn't work out very well. There are a lot of historic sites around where I live that kinda show that it didn't work out very well. Viva Canada.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 11:36
wert (Dabchick) ID#234182:
Morning from the Rockies ! Hows is the weather in Lomdon this afternoon? Damp for sure.Little slow with Kitcoid dialogue today. This is a bullish sign for the price of gold next week. Hope all is well with you please keep up the GDI figures; between your figures and DONALD's ratios Ithink Ifeel better informed. ( ;+ ) ) ps. whats a dabchick if you don't mind the question?..regards wert

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 11:15
kapex ( Pentagon's nuclear weapons need more tests for Y2K bug ) ID#275194:
Copyright © 1998 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved






  
• Companies set up Year 2000 war rooms - November 27, 1998
• Government said to lag in Y2K fix - November 24, 1998
• Clinton inks $3.4B Y2K budget - October 23, 1998

Search CNN.com:

Pentagon's nuclear weapons need more tests for Y2K bug

WASHINGTON ( CNN ) -- An apparent misunderstanding led the Pentagon agency responsible for the safety and security of the nation's nuclear stockpiles to misreport data on whether its computer systems have been programmed to handle the Year 2000 bug.

Three mission-critical computer systems were classified as Y2K-compliant by the Defense Special Weapons Agency ( DSWA ) without completing the required independent testing, according to a Department of Defense Inspector General's report.

Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Patrick Sivigny said any computer failure by the nuclear stockpile agency would not affect the nation's ability to defend itself. This has nothing to do with command and control of nuclear weapons, he said.

Navy Capt. Michael Doubleday, a Pentagon spokesman, said Friday that the Defense Department is systematically addressing the Y2K challenge and has conducted more than 200 audits in the past year to ensure officials are conducting the proper tests.

We view it as we do any kind of war fighting situation, Doubleday said, noting that Year 2000 testing has become part of routine Pentagon operations and training.

One member of the congressional committee overseeing the agency said it's a problem, but one that can be dealt with.

I'm pleased that we learned about it 13 months ahead of time. I am not pleased that the problem exists, but there certainly is sufficient time for us to address the issue, said Rep. Thomas Barrett, D-Wisconsin.

George Ullrich, acting director of the weapons agency, noted in a letter to the inspector general's office that he and other agency officials had been unaware that independent testing was needed to verify that a system would not crash in the year 2000. Pentagon officials said the agency had been following outdated policy.

The IG report also noted that since the discrepancy was discovered, the weapons agency had tested two of the critical systems, but still needs to test the third.

DSWA has managed and tested the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile since 1947. It also verifies arms control treaties and pacts. The agency was absorbed by the new Defense Threat Reduction Agency on October 1.

Many older computers across the country are programmed to recognize only the last two digits of any year. So when 00 shows up on January 1, 2000, computers could read it as 1900 -- which could result in turmoil in how data is analyzed or could result in freeze-ups or massive malfunctions.

In a report over the summer, the inspector general noted that only 25 percent of the 430 critical Pentagon computer systems were certified as Y2K-compliant.

As a result, the report warned, systems may unexpectedly fail because they were classified as Y2K-complaint without adequate basis.

Correspondent Carl Rochelle and The Associated Press contributed to this report. Special Section:
Y2K Bug - Millenium Mahem Related stories:
Companies set up Year 2000 war rooms - November 27, 1998 Government said to lag in Y2K fix - November 24, 1998 Clinton inks $3.4B Y2K budget




Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 10:11
Dabchick (Valuing Gold independent of fiat currencies) ID#258195:
Copyright © 1998 Dabchick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Here are the Dabchick Gold Index figures ( calculated from the London Bullion Market figures as supplied to the F.T. by N.M.Rothschild ) for the past week. All figures refer to the London close.
These figures are intended to show changes in the True Value of Gold relative to its value in January 1982. Because these values are independent of debased fiat paper currencies, they are also independent of the inflation caused to all other prices by governments that indulge in currency debasement.
Date--- | Close | High | Low |
23 Nov | 70.08 | 70.25 | 69.97 |
24 Nov | 70.10 | 70.28 | 70.00 |
25 Nov | 70.43 | 70.57 | 70.31 |
26 Nov | 70.27 | 70.32 | 70.16 |
27 Nov | 70.48 | 70.53 | 70.32 |
( Basis : Jan 1982 = 100 )
After the preceding week's breather in the 68 - 70 trading range, gold gapped up out of the range first thing Monday morning and rested just above the 70 support level all this week. The gap up was minimal, ( less than the hoped-for 0.50 gap ) but the similarities to the Sep 92 bottoming action have again been confirmed. Regards............Dabchick.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 10:09
Dabchick (Friday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates and Weekly Summary) ID#258195:
Copyright © 1998 Dabchick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
For Friday 27 Nov calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
$LIBOR--------------5.56--------------5.25-------------5.28-----------------5.12

Mean GoldLR------4.29---------------4.22-------------3.86-----------------3.57
Gold Lease Rate---1.27---------------1.03-------------1.42-----------------1.55
( Change ) ----- ( + 0.48 ) ------- ( + 0.01 ) ------ ( + 0.16 ) ----------- ( 0.00 )

Silver Lend Rate----4.65--------------4.00-------------3.50-----------------2.75
Silver Lease Rate---0.91--------------1.25--------------1.78-----------------2.37
( Change ) -------- ( + 0.28 ) -------- ( - 0.30 ) ------- ( + 0.64 ) ---------- ( + 0.30 )
$LIBOR = BBA London rate fixed at 11am
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild.
Lease Rate equals $LIBOR minus Lending Rate
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day.

Weekly Summary of Gold and Silver Lease Rates
Monday 23rd Nov to Friday 27th Nov
GOLD
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 0.84,,,,,,,0.81,,,,,,,,0.77,,,,,,,,,,0.79,,,,,,,,1.27
3-Month - | 1.08,,,,,,,1.06,,,,,,,,1.04,,,,,,,,,,1.02,,,,,,,,1.03
6-Month - | 1.30,,,,,,,1.29,,,,,,,,1.27,,,,,,,,,,1.26,,,,,,,,1.42
12-Month-| 1.58,,,,,,,1.59,,,,,,,,1.56,,,,,,,,,,1.55,,,,,,,,1.55
SILVER
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 0.68,,,,,,,0.68,,,,,,,,0.63,,,,,,,,,,0.63,,,,,,,,0.91
3-Month- | 1.75,,,,,,,1.75,,,,,,,,1.55,,,,,,,,,,1.55,,,,,,,,1.25
6-Month- | 2.42,,,,,,,2.42,,,,,,,,2.42,,,,,,,,,,2.42,,,,,,,,1.78
12-Month| 2.69,,,,,,,2.72,,,,,,,,2.67,,,,,,,,,,2.67,,,,,,,,2.37
Regards..............Dabchick

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 10:08
esotericist (@gollum) ID#224230:
Options Account is now O P E N. Calls being purchased Monday. Sure those are levers labelled correctly ?
And polished and oiled so they won't squeak too much when you YANK them severely ?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 09:53
Mike Stewart (Quebec Politics) ID#270253:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Stewart/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Canadians in English Canada have never understood the Quebec political dynamics. They assume that deep down, Quebec is just like them, but translated into French. They seem shocked every time the separatists win an election. Face it, 2/3 of francophones vote separatist, and voted Yes in the last referendum. It is pretty clear.

This in spite of the fact that Quebec based politicians have controlled our federal government for at least 30 years. They want it ( and get it ) both ways.

Meanwhile, we anglos do everything to keep the family together. The Quebec based politicians can run circles around the rest of the country. They are very clever and know the game well. This is nothing new. Quebec always gets what they want in government contracts, their own income tax system, their own pension plan etc. This is a sweet deal for them as they can't lose. Those from the rest of Canada act vulnerable and weak, much like parents of an out-of-control teenager that is destroying a family. There is no tough love in Canada. We just want harmony and any cost. It is painful to watch.

It is time for the teenager to move out.


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 09:40
Mooney* (@Tantalus @Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 07:39) ID#348169:
Only possible hole is timing on selling and buying back the stocks.. Good Trading!

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 09:02
Gollum (@esotericist ) ID#43349:
I presume we are done with flat and Monday the levers get hit.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 08:13
esotericist (Freedom...) ID#224230:
Copyright © 1998 esotericist/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Can't disagree with that in essence. Though I think that were one able to accurately and completely sum up the reasons for the conditions on the planet in a one liner - so to speak - there would be nothing to talk about. And there's plenty to talk about. Why various societies have remained docile in the face of totalitarian and authoratitive regimes ( of their own people - this ain't a colonial thing ) is my #1 question. ( I live in a corrupt third world country that thinks it is developing because all the rich drive Benzes - they're free to corruptly follow their lowest corrupt immoral instincts because there's no discipline in the society and no system of social justice. Too much freedom...without control or self-control ? It's a difficult one to ponder.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 08:01
alrea (esoteric/working together) ID#200274:
The precise reason that some of us are not in poverty is because there is a system in which the individual can be freed to seek higher ground. The reason 2/3 are in poverty is because they have labored in collectivist economies or under totalitarian regimes.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 08:00
alrea (esoteric/working together) ID#200274:
The precise reason that some of us are not in poverty is because there is a system in which the individual can be freed to seek higher ground. The reason 2/3 are in poverty is because they have labored in collectivist economies or under totalitarian regimes.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 07:52
alrea (activity on kitco) ID#200274:
This place has slowed down. Look for gold to rally NEXT week. The pressure is off, they can't hold it down much longer.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 07:39
Tantalus (@CompGeek & Jims & All: Two tiered market?) ID#370236:
Copyright © 1998 Tantalus/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The paper-gold market seems manipulated, range-bound and madeningly ( sp? )
impervious to supply & demand, monetary & political crises, even war.

But the coin market may be where it's at. Ordered some Sovereins & Roosters 7 weeks ago, still not here. Called the dealer and was told they would ship next week. I've also been to local coin shops, and
they have nothing but wheat-back US pennies, buffalo nickels and way overpriced numismatics. Gold coins are getting very scarce in the USA.
Waiting list for Double Eagles.

Gonna dump my gold stocks in Dec. for the tax loss. What the heck, can always buy them back in '99 at same or lower cost.

And order gold coins in bulk and sell them one at-a-time to local shops for a tidy, non-taxable profit.

Any holes in this train of thought? Comments appreciated.



Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 07:34
Selby (This should produce boos and cat-calls) ID#286230:
Copyright © 1998 Selby/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Canadian companies largely ready
for Y2K

Millennium bug: Biggest fear is on international side, Jean Monty
says

By JILL VARDY
The Financial Post
Those feeling panicky about the impact of the coming of the year 2000 will find their
fears largely unfounded when the new century dawns, the head of one of Canada's
biggest companies said yesterday.

But that doesn't mean Canadians will be safe from Millennium bug glitches originating
in other countries, warned Jean Monty, president and CEO of phone giant BCE Inc.
and former chairman of the Year 2000 Task Force.

Mr. Monty said Canadian companies are in good shape to beat the Millennium bug
expected to hit computer systems on Jan. 1, 2000.

I think this is going to be dealt with in Canada. Our biggest fear now is on the
international side, Mr. Monty told a parliamentary committee studying the impact of
the Year 2000.

Older computer systems and embedded computer chips that record only the last two
digits of a year date will record the date as 00 when the century turns.

Computers that haven't been reconfigured will interpret that date as 1900, throwing
their internal timers out of whack and likely causing shutdowns.

He predicted concern about the impact of the Millennium bug will intensify as the
date grows nearer. As of today, there are 399 days before the turn of the century.

We might have a little panic next summer, people are going to ask a lot of questions.
But there is so much good work being done that I think we will be able to comfort
consumers, Mr. Monty said.

Panic is justified, though, in some areas of the economy. Jayson Myers, executive
vice-president of the Alliance of Manufacturers and Exporters of Canada, said he's
worried that Canadian producers are not taking this problem seriously enough.

There is a considerable amount of work to be done across this sector, Mr. Myers
said.

There is still quite a lot of disinterest that this is a serious problem.

He said 58% of manufacturers say they have a formal plan in place for 2000.

Both Mr. Monty and Mr. Myers said companies who don't have action plans in
place need to develop them fast.

Mr. Monty suggested companies create an inventory of computerized processes that
need to be checked, and check them in coordination with other systems.

Systems should be assigned colors -- red, yellow or green -- to illustrate how much
risk of shutdown they face.

At BCE, for example, 92% of systems have been checked. We're mostly green,
with a few yellow spots, Mr. Monty said.

He noted the intensive work done by large companies to ensure Y2K compliance is
cascading down through smaller companies, who are forced to do their own Y2K
preparation to remain suppliers to the bigger firms.

That's what has happened in the airline industry, the committee was told.

The Air Transport Association of Canada and the Air Transport Association of
America have jointly developed a database on the Y2K preparedness of all North
American air industry suppliers. A similar database is being completed in Europe.

Clifford Mackay, president of ATAC, said Canadian airlines will only fly where it is
safe to do so on Jan. 1, 2000.

He said the airlines in Canada will spend $110-million getting ready for the year
2000.

Air Canada, for example, will do on-site audits of 60 of its vital suppliers to make
sure they're ready for Jan. 1, 2000.

Janice Robinson of Air Canada said the airline will begin integrated tests with all its
flight partners and feeder airlines in February in time machine sites set up in
Vancouver, Winnipeg, Toronto, Dorval, and Montreal.

Mr. Monty also recommended that Statistics Canada, which is contracted to survey
companies for Year 2000 preparedness in January, should ask very specific questions
on exactly which sectors and individual companies still have work to do.

That still gives the government time to push those companies into compliance before
the century turns.

Better business bureaus and consumer associations, meanwhile, should be helping
consumers make sure the electronic products they buy in the next 399 days won't stop
working on Jan. 1, 2000, he said.

BCE is independently testing all the products it sells.


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 07:15
esotericist (@compgeek et al. Islamic Gold Thang) ID#224230:
Copyright © 1998 esotericist/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I've read about this one. On the face of it, it seems barely more than a wishful thinking twinkle in the eyes of a group of idealistic people. Miniscule amounts of the shiny stuff as yet involved. But the difference between ideals and ideas are wings.. ideas have wings - so they can fly. This one's as yet a turkey. Looks like a bird ...

Now - from an esoteric POV....what we're seeing here over the last few years, in many aspects of life on this little globe, is a variety of challenges to various groups of humanity to WORK together. It's the only way out of many situations : from planetary environmental to response to meterological conditions to the spectre of worldwide economic collapse. Trouble is that THE ONLY ANSWER - cooperative working together - which seems so obvious but being what we are...is also so difficult.

Do you think you could get agreement from any two Islamic banking groups any more than you can get agreement from any two or more other groups of people with their own vested interests. OPEC ! European Union, APEC etc.

The forces of separativeness ( based on the illusion of self ) are SO STRONG that any of these things will take a long time. They couldn't agree on a united approach to any problem unless it was the last possible option. Which it will be.

We're all RIGHT here at Kitco about GOLD and its manipulation etc. but timing is the issue. When the hell will SOMETHING -possibly external - happen to make people WAKE UP we all think. The sooner we bite the bullet as a race the better. 2/3 of the planet live in absolute poverty - how can anybody claim that we as a species have it figured out.

Grrrr.....Don't get me going here !

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 05:56
Jack () ID#254288:
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

I believe Mapleman's poll is almost unanswerable.
The paper gold interests control the market price
have much to lose if incorrect.

At least three of the four choices in the poll are intertwined and that will probably give answer five.
 
Brokers have a large stake in both commissions and the
final market price that these paper gold bets end up at, they also have close ties to CB's and may be controlled by or control the large bank houses. These guys are intertwined.

They hardly ever lose their bets and that's something to think about. If the tide turns against these interests
or their valued clients big sums of money are lost, even a systemic failure might occur. We seen evidence of this with a number of close calls; governmental support has been evident.
 
Since gold and by proxy, the value of national
currencies are linked ( currency to currency; or gold to
currency ) ; a sudden robust gold price can play much havoc with the good buddies club, such turmoil can effect commisions and the trading profits of the large investment houses.
 
This is a game where the super-nationals and the
super-rich are insured by average taxpayer funds when
the sh!t hits the fan.
 
Many might say that Greenspan lowered rates to
invigorate the US Economy and Stock Market. I DON'T BUY
THAT STORY.
 
One has to ask; what does the market do after a big
correction? We all know that over the past ten years it
has always increased.
P/E ratios mean little, most everyone believes that the
present values are reasonable and that most all
corporations will prosper into the long term horizon.

In other words I believe that AG lowered rates to save
the world, a world that his buddies control.

Foreign investors are brained washed about the US
economy and will probably keep investing here until
the proverbial occurs.
 
Again, the good buddies were saved by AG;s words and
actions. The large interests will make up their
losses. Ask yourself; who will be holding the bag? 
 
I feel sure that Greenspan and the large houses being
the root know the problem very well. In the interim, there's still time to make some commissions
and to put overpriced investments into the hands of the public. In the end the taxpayer is always available to save their ass.
 
I vote for #5. A combination of powerful interest acting in their own behalf, without regard for their own nations interests. Some call it treason.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 05:26
Nick@C (Nice to see some good posts...) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...on the graveyard shift.
Comp@geek -- When I lived in Papua New Guinea, I had a wood stove and a kerosine fridge. Don't know if you've ever seen a kero fridge, but basically a big pan of kero under the fridge with a wick burning up a glass tube, much like an oil lamp. House next door burned down when the glass cracked and fibro wall went up in flames. Stinky bugger as well. Also a real pain to refill every few days.
...................
ER@LE -- I'll listen to nick@c more, in the future.
Would you have a word with my missus, mate
...................
I am still relatively goldstockless at the moment ( sold about 80% when we bounced off 300 for the third time in a month--still have a helluvalotta juniors ) . That was the sign to me that there was not enough momentum ( read that 'panic' ) to overcome the manipulators that want to hold gold range-bound 290-300.If we can avoid massive deflation, it will take a buying spree and or shift in fund/gubbermint strategy to get us through 300 convincingly. When that happens, sub-300 gold may be a thing you talk to your grandchildren about. Sonny, when I was a young whipper-snapper I bought gold for $295. WOW GRANDPA, you must be a genius!!
..................
http://www.homepower.com/hplead.htm
Nice article here on a young couple hooking their house up to solar power in Belize. Just goes to show that nothing is certain in this world. Hope they survived the hurricane.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 05:22
Jack () ID#254288:
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

I believe Maplemans poll is almost unanswerable.
The paper gold interests controlling the market price have huge interests, at least three of the four choices in the poll are intertwined and that will probably give answer five.
 
Brokers have a large stake in both commissions and the final price that these paper gold bets end up at, they also have close ties to CB's and may be controlled by or control the large bank houses.
They hardly ever lose their bets and that's something to think about. If the tide turns against these interests or the valued clients big sums of money are lost, even a sysmatic failure might occur. We seen evidence of this on a number of occasions and as governmental support has been evident, time and time again.
 
Since gold and by proxy, the value of national currencies are linked ( currency to currency; or gold to currency ) ; a sudden robust gold price can do much damage to the club, such turmoil can effect commisions and thr trading profits of the large investment houses.
 
This is a game where the super-nationals and the super-rich are insured by average taxpayer funds when the sh!t hits the fan.
 
Many might say that Greenspan lowered rates to invigorate the US Economy and Stock Market. I DON'T BUY THAT STORY.
 
One has to ask; what does the market do after a big correction? We all know that over the past ten years it has always increased.
P/E ratios mean little, most everyone believes that the present values are reasonable and that most all corporations will prosper into the long term horizon.

In other words I believe that AG lowered rates to save the world, a world that his buddies control.

Foreign investors are brained washed about the US economy and will probably keep investing hereaa until the proverbial hits the fan.
 
Again, the good buddies were saved by AG words and actions. The large interests will make up for their losses. Ask yourself; who will be holding the bag? 
 
I feel sure that Greenspan and the large houses being the root of the problem know the problem very well. In the interim, there's still time to make some commissions and to get out of overpriced investments; the taxpayer is always available to save their ass.
 
I vote for #5. A combination of powerful interest acting in their own behalf, without regard for their own nation

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 05:09
bondsman (jims story (1:36) part 2) ID#263119:
Copyright © 1998 bondsman/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Part 2: And the oblivious and independent will spend and consume more than they earn and will become accustomed to a high standard of living. And the stock market will create much wealth for them in effect enlarging the money supply ( stocks are a collateral against which one can borrow ) .

Part 3: With the same speed and in reverse the bubble will collapse in effect shrinking the ( credit ) money supply much faster than the fed can inject liquidity into the system. The amazing falling collateral values and the amazing evaporating credit hits those who have become accustomed to depend on it. The general liquidation and distress.

To what hights will they rise? The answer is: zero.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 04:54
CompGeek (@Esotericist -Islamic Dinar -Pyramid) ID#343259:
Heard about this again tonite. It is for real? Is it happening? It would seem almost too easy for a bloc ( any bloc, Muslim is fine ) to use real money, and use up the gold supply in a hurry, ie, to remonetize it. If so, wouldn't they need to buy a *bunch* o gold? Any more on the pyramid story? How much gold would be used?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 04:39
esotericist (@compgeek) ID#224230:
Glad you got my ; ) !
Your anecdote supports much of what we've been hearing in the last 3 months or so here. The world over, retail Gold Sales is really happening - now for a little trickle up theory ...

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 04:30
CompGeek (@esotericist) ID#343259:
Sorry, Right eyebrow. ICQ=null, IQ?

I was actually quite suprised by his remark. I suspect he really is in the gold rope, gold jewelry business, but not too much into coins, even though his sign for coins was 18 high. Either he really wasn't in the business, or got caught short. Just an isolated report, but it raises some curiosity. Think I'll stop in some other stores to check 'em out.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 04:28
Goldbug23 (Earl - Yes, Groppi was one big phoney in my book too) ID#432148:
That was a few years back. Gold is doing better than he is ;- )

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 04:15
Goldbug23 (Aldebaron - you make some good points but) ID#432148:
I think you should take a good look at the Historical items we talk about like PEs, book value, sales to price, etc. and you will see they are very well above prior figures, even above '29 which is considered one of the all time highs, historically. Considering these figures my bet is 20,000 will not be seen for many a moon. Over, 10,000, certainly possible for some of the reasons you state. But my bet is the next big move will be a downer. When?, who knows. Your contribution was excellent, keep em coming.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 04:14
esotericist (@compgeek - Eyebrow raising ?) ID#224230:
I'm a compgeek too.... ICQ sub halfmillion...

Now tell me, when you couldn't get a gold coin back there, which eyebrow did you raise ; )

Here on Kitco it's important to be specific.....

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 03:54
CompGeek (Gold Demand from the ) ID#343259:
Stopped into a shop that advertised Gold, Guns, Coins, Buy, Sell today just to nose around. I asked, Got any coins? Reply: Nope. The demand is too high. Everyone is asking for coins. I haven't got a single coin. NOT A SINGLE COIN. I asked, Are you a buyer or a seller. His response. Well, I buy and sell, but, I have to say that at these prices, I'm a buyer. Just a random encounter, but raised my eyebrow.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 03:45
CompGeek (Less than 400 days to go) ID#343259:
Down to 398 days, or 9,576 hours, or 1,014 productive working hours.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 03:45
Auric (Star Wars Update) ID#257312:

LA Times to run page one story on China developing a satellite buster. Wonder if this is part of that big leak of national security documents. http://www.drudgereport.com/

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 03:22
CompGeek (Kerosine) ID#343259:
Copyright © 1998 CompGeek/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Cowgirl. Don't know all your answers, but here's a start. Kerosine is also known as #1 fuel Oil or #1 Distillate. It can also contain other stuff as well ( see the following URL ) . You will need to concatenate the next 3 lines together as it is a very long URL, and I understand long URLS don't do well on Kitco. Just string them all together without any spaces.

http://seweb2.phillips66.com/hes/msds.nsf/

21a3a60b39343907862565b40055fde7/8170f36ca39d99a7862566590064

addc?OpenDocument

#2 fuel oil is regular diesel fuel. It may or may not contain additives for motor diesel use. Also known as heating oil. There is no difference really, except it is labelled as Heating Oil to be taxed differently ( In my understanding ) .

#1 fuel oil is used to cut #2 diesel for cold-weather use. Typical cuts are between 10% and 35%.

#1 will burn cleaner than #2.

To those heating with wood. Take the time to learn about safety. I heated with wood for years ( sole source of heat ) . Neighbors house burned to the ground. He, his wife and baby escaped the wall of fire at the front door by going through the broken bedroom window in 5 feet of snow, and -20 F weather. The fire department arrived, set up shop, and the pump broke in the extreme temperature. They stayed at our house, crying all night. He had put a paper bag full of coals that had been cold three days on a wooden porch.

Please, take the time to learn what you are doing. Stories like this are not rare around places where wood is used for heat.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 03:06
Aldebaran (gagnrad thanks for the wood heating links. I gotta get a saw and and axe) ID#256365:
Copyright © 1998 Aldebaran All rights reserved
I gotta get a two person saw and an axe. I've used both before and it's terrible, but if this y2k is real, then a chainsaw won't be usefull for long. But I'll make use of it while it works. Found a recipe for bugs of all things. Next summer when the bugs are in the garden I'm going to try. Getting beans and rice, learned that together they make a complete protien. Getting vitemins. Ordered already a water filter from a company called katadyne, supposed to be long lasting. Lookign for sales on canned meats.

I don't want to live like a cave man, but I got a wife and two sons, nothing else matters.



I was at the store today, and a woman noticed my cart, she had some stuff too, and she said y2k? I said No, doomsday comet cult



You know in a couple of hundred years, humanity might have gotten it all together, what the hell happened?



I quit school my 3rd year into a BS in systems analysis. I'm so out of date that I can't tell if this is going to happen or not. But I know that if it does happen, its going to be bad.




Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 02:37
Aldebaran (mapleman poll 1&2) ID#256365:
-
I think supply and demand are controlling the price of gold. The consensus on kitco seems to be that the stock market is in some insane bull. Say thats so, then who would invest in gold when they can make just SO much money in the stock market? And kitco consensus says there will be a crash, and I found this website of some economist Yardini? who was analysing things and his old predictions seem to be comeing true, he is saying the same sort of thing. But thats not important if the people with money to invest don't believe it. The stocks will go up and up, sure someday they will crash, and I bet EVERYONE knows it, but the think they can get in now and it will go up and they can get out before it crashes. geeze, I'm drunk, what I'm saying is all the money is going to stocks, and theres no increase in demand for gold.

Meanwhile from what I read here the gold producers have low production costs, and are gearing up for an increase in production. It looks like they are slitting their own throats, but if the price of gold falls they can sitll be ok if it is above their very low production cost. So this means supply is increasing and will increase more. the price of gold dosn't drop much becasue the producers don't want to sell at a discount even though they could still make a profit.

But from what I read here, the central banks,both european central banks and the FRB have serious motive to control the price but maybe for different reasons. Europe reason is maybe accumulate gold to back the Euro and FRB reason because apparently ( according to what I read at kitco ) the chairman wants to keep the price of gold stable. If this is so I bet he thinks hes doing a good job! But these two sides will perhaps part company after the Euro is launched? Then perhaps there will be a clash of what they want. Then we will see if the central banks controll the price of gold or if supply and demand does. Well maybe, it wouldn't be conclusive, Europe might want gold to go up aginst the dollar ( IF the Euro is to be backed by gold and I can't find any evidence of that other than at goldbug sites ) US might want gold stablilized against the dollar. If gold goes down after intro of Euro, then it's supply and demand. Only the miners profit if gold goes down. I know that dosn't make sense, but if their costs go down, then what does it matter to them.

Someone said that there will be an Asian currancy? Like the Euro? I don't see that for sometime, but then I don't know of such things, but maybe Asian centralbanks are soaking up all the extra gold.

It's supply and demand, but the central banks are participents, it looks kinda automated, the producers forward sell if gold is greaterthan y and some central bank or other institutions buy if gold is lessthan x wehre y =296.7 and x=295.5

I presume the producers can forward sell more than the buyers are willing or able to purchase? If so then my gold options were indeed a stupid newbie trade.



P.S. the stock market may not crash for a while. I don't know the percentages, but there is loads of money in 401k's you all know that, but most of you are in a different socio/eco class than me. the people I work with ALL have 401k's and have about the max deducted for it. They think they are being responsible and SAVING money. They have a very fuzzy udnerstanding of where their money is going in a 401k. I know you people know this, but REALLY, they think their 401k is for their retirement, and the have NO doubts that it will be there. There are alot of workers. That means alot of money going in to the stocks and this money is very slow and unsophisticated. The stock market may crash hard and a good percentage of investors won't realize it has anything to do with them until they get some letter from the manager of their 401k plan months after the crash. You all know these things intellectually better than I do, but I don't think any of you are really wage slaves. You think that if the djia drops 3000 points we are having a crash because there will be additional selloff, but my undeducated guess is that lots of money will still be flowing in $30 a week per worker bee. Some of you think it will go to 10,000 then crash. Ok, I am a fool, but I think it will go to 20,000 before the lights go out. Most all of you have a better understanding of this than I do, so you shake your heads and say 20,000 can't happen can't happen but I don't think smart money is running this show, stupid money is. and stupid money has no concept of what is realistic weather thats djia at 20000 or dec99 gold at 390


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 02:33
John Disney (.. Off shore trusts ..) ID#24135:
For Erle ..
If you had been sharp enough to have bought the rand at
6.5 .. not only would you have a 14 % appreciation but it
was paying over 20 % short term .. in an offshore account
this would have been tax free .. suggest off shore trust ..
trade from shelter ..

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 02:23
John Disney (the misuses of altruism) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
To all ..
The theory of the social safety net .. and taking care of
those who have fallen on hard times in one way or another ..
.. I do not believe that this is a function of Government
in any way shape or form ..
Before the more brain dead among you attack me for this
statement on grounds that I am a heartless rat, let me add
that charitable agencies that collect money voluntarily given
using labour that has been freely donated has always provided
this service in the past. Either mankind IS or IS NOT willing
to take care of his less fortunate brothers ( and sisters ) ..
If he IS .. then he will use charitable agencies and give
freely ( or even use the church ) ..
If he IS NOT .. then having the Government coerce people
into taking care of others .. is obviously FALSE by
inspection. It is insincere as the Government truely cares
nothing about anything but assuming more power ..
It is ineffective as a large fraction of the money spent
in collecting the funds is consumed in the very effort
of their collection.
It CREATES and has created an underclass who have learned
to live and benefit from the very fact that they are society's
victims.
Lets start over from scratch ..

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 02:14
Rack (SIOP-150 HP should be able to turn a 32kw unit but it didn't!) ID#411163:
I'll report when I get a chance to talk to this guy for a bit. He is no dummy and stated that it did't have what it took to do the job. I thought he would have had 3 times what he needed-I'll let you know next week

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 02:10
Skeptic (Russia) ID#288260:
Copyright © 1998 Skeptic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Found this at http://www.urbansurvival.com/ Thought you might find it interesting. GO GOLD!

From From Long Wave
participant Dennis Sherwood: Sources are reporting that Russia will default this Wednesday. If you were getting
this vital ( free ) information ( details how below ) you would have read: Russian negotiators this week have informed
western creditors that they will renege on the terms of scheduled payments on US$28 billion of mostly Soviet-era
debt. This indicates that the coming interest payment of US$724 million will not be met when due next Wednesday
( December 2, 1998 ) . The Russians proposed paying only a partial payment in bonds worth about 13 per cent of
their face value. Russia is effectively losing control of its banking system, with many banks on verge of closing, and
its currency being replaced by the US dollar in their domestic economy.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 02:07
Retearivs (Dvos data) ID#410196:
Copyright © 1998 Retearivs/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Since the board is so very quiet, some golden information

Horsepower rating in vehicles is a bit like power output in home stereo equipment. As many here will understand, a close examination of a claim of 200 Watts of audio power for an amplifier turns out to actually be the sum of 100 Watts for each of two channels and even that rating turns out to be music power or some similar rubbish rating. The real, continuos duty, r.m.s. power will probably turn out to be more like 30 Watts a channel.

In the same way, a horsepower is not a horsepower. Horsepower ( kW ) marked on the plate by a mainline manufacturer on an alternator tells the truth. At the other end of the spectrum is the horsepower rating of an automobile engine. /That/ horsepower is not the truth. A 200 hp automotive engine operated at 200 hp continuous duty would die. Promptly.

( This is the same beginner's mistake that is made with marine engines, by the way. A chap looking over engines to be installed in his new pleasure boat sees that what is being sold for marine use is unbelievably big, clunky and expensive. It puts out very small horsepower, too. Because of his vast experience gained in tinkering with automotive engines when he was a youth, he realizes that all he has to do is to install an automotive engine with a marine manifold. He can have four times the horsepower and in a smaller, lighter package and, boy oh boy, will it be cheap compared to what these marine engine builders are charging. )

The truth here is that vehicle engines, with some exceptions, are not rated for continuous duty but that is what an alternator will demand at times and always, if charging a battery bank ( and what is required hour after hour in a vessel at cruising speed ) . In the marine business, a vehicle gasoline engine is routinely derated to a third of its supposed output by fellows who know the realities but even then they are not expected to last. Automotive engines used in marine applications are cheap so it doesn't matter much so long as care is taken to change them out frequently or to do rebuilds frequently.

Another factor here is the specific fuel consumption of the engine. What seems to be of interest is long term use and consideration should be given to this matter. An engine running at the upper limit of its rating might not be such a bargain in the end if fuel consumption per kW generated is considered over a long term. Hours between rebuilds might be a factor in such a long term operation, too. The saving realized by being able to run, say, twice as many hours between teardowns might pay for an engine a third larger in output and, at the same time, an engine more economical of fuel in the proposed service.

Now let's all hope for a rejigging of monetary relationships over the Christmas holidays. That would the next logical time to make a quantum change. Not only will there be holidays to distract the plebeians but the ECU is coming on line to excuse or explain whatever it is that happens.


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 02:07
ERLE (so much for me) ID#190411:
Thanks JD

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 02:05
ERLE (jims, INX.X) ID#190411:
I have seen some cryptic disparaging remarks about James Dines here before. I subscribe to his letter, and if I had taken his advice, well.....Fat-bankrolls-R-us
Fundamentals mean nothing anymore.
I'm still considerably ahead of the S+P this year with my ridiculously high content of goldshares. I am more lucky than good.
Why didn't I dump SWC this past week? Or PDG.
I'll listen to nick@c more, in the future.
Fleckenstine's comment of today is as morose as any Kitcoite's wet dream.
..... This next week........

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 02:04
John Disney (Brokers and Separatists ) ID#24135:
For Erle ..
I dont do On-line .. I do it the hard way .. ML has offices
in JB and CT.

for Salty ..
I love separatists.. I am a separatist .. put me in
something .. and I'll separate .. except for Kitco of
course. Free Quebec .. Viva ..

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 01:37
ERLE (Fr. Groppi is dead.) ID#190411:
Gold is still comatose.
It reminds me of the Twilight Zone episode, where the woman awoke from a fifty-year coma, and died from the fright of her aged circumstance.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 01:36
jims (Three stock markets in one) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Reading around the net about stocks today I come to the conslusion that there are now three stock markets. The first is the solid value growth company with market PE that is keeping pace with the S&P - up 20% in the last two months -about even since July, paying dividends - a stock that's been around and there is pretty good assurance it'll weather most storms in the future.

Second set of stocks are things like the golds and oil service companies and other commodity type stocks - stuck - missing out on the action - going - no where or down - concerns are expessed for them about bankruptcy, especially if commodity prices should fall further. Hard to make a bullish case for these stocks nobody will listen. A Long term time horizon is suggested.

The third set which we all wish we owned, had had the courage to buy and are being almost taunted into buying, are the internet related stocks whose valuations bear little ressemblance to their business successes. Their futures have been discounted well into the next decade if not beyond.

This holiday party season the intoxicated talk about this sector will be very grand as will be the self opinion the brave ones who took the plunge and were almost instantly rewarded with 10-100% gains per day. These men and woman are the heros of the moment - smarter than the street, smarter than the prudent, smarter than those who have worried and let their investments reflect a vision of the economiy in chaos or under inflationary preasure.

The gunslingers, the gamblers, the young, the uninitiated, the wildly bold, the computer nerds, they have the new wealth to talk about. Such is the American dream: one of optomism, invention, independence obivious to what the skeptics should say.

To what new heights will they soar.?//

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 01:34
Jack (Still early but some fine holes reportrd today) ID#252163:
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
About Aurizon, it makes money during both good and bad times,this says something for them considering golds poor performance.
This could very well be mine number three for Aurizon ( arz ) .
#1 is Sleeping Giant ( 50% )
#2 is Beaufor ( 50% )

Headline -Aurizon's drill Results Confirm New Discovery at Casa Beradi

Casa Beradi has an existing mill and mining infrastructure already in place. This release is at their web site. Look around if you will. If I remember correctly the existing mill is rated at around 2,200 tonne per day. http://www.aurizon.com/content/news/112798.html

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 01:28
Earl (Erle:) ID#227238:
Kulture is me middle name. Often appended with the word 'low'. ..... Yes, I bleeve yer correct we did scour the memory banks for the name of that mountebank. Fr. Groppi. A collossal liberal fraud. Hope he has done as poorly as gold.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 01:23
ERLE (aurator,) ID#190411:
I have the song of which you refer. Jerry Lee Lewis. I had no inkling of the breadth of your kultur.
Yessir, Mr. Earl, we went through your MKE connection a while ago.
You know, we tried to recall the name of Father Groppi: I think that gold was about 294.50 way back then. I haven't looked since then.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 01:20
Earl (Salty:) ID#227238:
I bleeve that would be, .... with yer white socks, 'n red neck 'n ______ ________ beer.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 01:17
Selby (aurator) ID#286230:
Not in favour but don't care. Quebec takes about 5 billion from the rest of Canada ( Ontario and Alberta ) and gives us nothing back but constant irritation and costs about 10 cents on the C$. It used to be that people said that Quebec was a great barrier to US influence because of the language requirements for all products etc. But someone recently noted that these requirement hold for the French speaking Canadians spread around the country anyway so who needs a constant and costly pain.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 01:16
ERLE (Si, Sr. aurator, mi nombre es cabeza de queso, not.) ID#190411:
I don't know Mr. GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD, but, yes we are both from the badger state ( named for the Cornwall miners that worked the lead deposits in the south-western corner of our sovereign state. )
My sister had a fine herd of Jersey cows, that are big fat producers for the cheese industry. My wife thinks that our family should, by way of diet, single-handedly support the dairy industry.
GOLDEN cheese leaves me cold. I like the silver stinky Swiss, and the bleu.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 01:12
Jack (test) ID#252163:
testing

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 01:12
aurator () ID#255284:
Earl
What made Milwaukie famous and made a lying fool out of me?
Selby
If you are hinting that you are in favour of separation of Quebec, I would like to listen to you as such a view runs contrary to all that I have been told about Canada. Perhaps we could email on this one?
Earl
How big are them mocassins fella?
bbll


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 01:06
Earl (Erle:) ID#227238:
Will it increase the confusion if I confess to having lived in Milwaukee for most of the 60s? ....... The word Orygun is derived from the meso-paleolithic period in Amerindian culture, I believe. ... Though some here will disagree, I'm sure. ...... It means: Rains like pouring pee out of a mocassin

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 01:01
aurator (Franglais) ID#255284:
Erle
Oregon
Sure is gone, that gold.

Getty Orgone Energy?


Wisc. Does that makes you a cheesehead? I am quite ignorant on such things, so I do not mean to insult.

Getty Fromage?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 01:00
Selby (aurator) ID#286230:
Lots of separtist spell it AU. Even the ones in Quebec

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:55
ERLE (aurator,) ID#190411:
I'm Erle of Wisconsin.
You might be confusing me with the Earl of Oregon. I wonder what the derivation of Oregon is?
Ore..Gold?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:55
aurator (Selby) ID#255284:
Not if they were separatists

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:54
Earl (Salty:) ID#227238:
French letters? With or without lubrication and/or reservoir ends? .... LOL! .... How does one spell Trojan in French I confess to the lack of a classical edjacation. ... added the 'd' just so there's no mistake on intent.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:53
gagnrad (ERLE, and good wishes for you. All, re furbicide) ID#43460:
I have only 16 months left until pronounced 'cured', hopefully will dodge the bullet of having to have radiation. One would hope you too will be well, live long and prosper, with lots of gold in your stocking this holiday. ( 8-^] )

Idly wondering if all the years having to breath the smoke from that damned fireplace caused it

All, so now to bed with thoughts of furbicide dancing in me 'ittle head!

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:52
aurator () ID#255284:
Ooops
I wasn't paying attention. Those last 2 posts to Earl were actually aimed at Erle.
Looks like I 'urled them at the wrong Earl.
Apopoleptic apollo loggies all round.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:51
Selby (aurator) ID#286230:
Would be the same wouldn't it?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:48
aurator () ID#255284:
Earl
Are the only two gold letters Au?
And what was that brand called in french letters?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:47
ERLE (@John Disney) ID#190411:
I missed out on the currency runup of the Rand/Dollar, an Aussie/dollae.
I take too long to find a stock broker.
Is there an online discount broker on JSE that you trust? Or do you have to go through the conventional brokerages yourself?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:46
Earl (Salty:) ID#227238:
Strategy meetings are held by those found to be strategically challenged. Ergo, the need to Getty a strategy. .... a gofer will be sent out to Getty the spaghetti. ..... Uh, go gold.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:45
aurator () ID#255284:
Earl
The best kero heaters have their brand names written in gold letters.


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:42
Earl (Erle:) ID#227238:
LOL. ..... there must be 50 ways to leave yer lover. Yes?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:42
aurator () ID#255284:
4bear
I know your cousin, skin. Axully, THE priest said he was in a stragety meeting. You and I may attend strategy meetings in which we discuss forward planning and other tautological nonsense, but THE Priest gets to stragety meetings, and I dunno what goes on in them, and I'm willing to wait and see what erupts thitherward.

Earl
If one attends enough stragety meetings, can one become a Getty?

Getty Spaghetti?



Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:39
Selby (gagnrad) ID#286230:
There a few of the US toilets around here and there and they sort of cut you short. Best part of being in a Canadian hospital is that you don't have to pay for it. Bad part is you have to be sick to get in.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:37
ERLE (gagnrad, smile thingy) ID#190411:
Funny commentary, as usual.

I think of you now, and then, and hope that your treatment will cure you.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:34
aurator () ID#255284:
Earl
pardon, I did omit the purpose of the infernal licence, it is a driving licence.

I'm driving down the highway that's cobbled with good intentions, running over dwarves escaping from basements...heading to oblivion in a manner of my choosing....


Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:32
John Disney ( NAV values ..) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
to all ..
If you read my posts .. you may recall that I had been
buying JCI-gold and CAM .. Reason was that they were both
at a massive discount to their NAV. I had no interest in
Western Areas although I had heard the rumours of Placer
sucking around them as well as around avgold a while back.
.. point is all this pays off sometimes ..
the placer/ western areas action has raised areas some
25 % or so.. but the big play was JCI-gold .. my average
cost was about 4.25 rand ( I only started buying no more than
2 months ago ) and it closed at 6.25 yesterday.. CAM was almost
as good as CAM owns a lot of JCI-gold .. my average was
about 80/85 and it closed 1.03 friday .. this has been in
a weakish gold market too.. I feel like taking the rest of the
year off .. after slowly taking profits.
.. Rangold is also at a big discount .. but it
will take an event of some kind to awake interest
in the stock .. I suggest a sharp up move in
RRS will do it

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:30
ERLE (Earl,) ID#190411:
Copyright © 1998 ERLE/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If you run across one of the Bombardier kerosene heaters at a dealer, look into one.
I didn't get any instructions with it, but, it has good ones on the unit in French and Anglo.
Coupling the heater thread with the recent holiday:
I have a friend that has a worship for any society other than his own.
He is orphaned, so, I'll cut him a bit of slack.
Anyway, he has a full sized teepee in his back yard, or, I should say, used to, as his new-age wife drove him and his teepee on the trail of tears.
The teepee is an extraordinary Y2K dwelling. It has more room than the cardboard boxes of the homeless, and, affords better weather protection.
While roomy, the squaw cannot hang useless decorations on the walls, as the walls are slanted, and plunging nails in the wall will diminish the rain protection.
Ventilation is superb, ( no kidding ) . A kerosene heater, supplemented with a fire, when it can be tended, might save our sorry butts.
Someone might help me on a way to fit gold into this mess.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:29
aurator () ID#255284:
Limey I agree
Parents ought to consider Furbicide without delay. I found a young girl's e-diary by following a random link in the Furby NetRing. She called her Furby Loo Loo and was chronicling its development and mastery of Ingrish. She promised to update her diary daily.

Wouldn't it be altogether too ghastly to contemplate a world in which the only certifiably Y2K compliant consumer product was a Furby? Imagine! On 1/1/00 the only sound electronic that may be heard is the eldrich cacophony of a million Furbies saying I love you.



Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:29
gagnrad (Selby and EARLE) ID#43460:
You folks might have the beginnings of a pretty lucrative black market if you can figure out to swap 'Merkan heaters

( with a place to boil a kettle ) for 5 gallon Canadian toilet tanks. The trouble is that if you get caught they'll impound all your gold as 'evidence'. Plus in the US the police will shoot you and then when you flee wounded across the border they will put you in a Canadian hospital! ( 8-^] )

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:28
TheMissingLink (Wood burning stove) ID#373403:
http://www.warroom.com/stoves.html

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:23
Earl (Salty:) ID#227238:
If we purchased a Polaroid camera for ever bureaucrat for his or her birthday, they could completely satisfy their simple taste in instant photography without involving the rest of us. ....... but hell they'd come up with a license fee just to cover the cost of their film.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:20
Selby (ERLE) ID#286230:
When I was on the phone to the heater dealer he mentioned that they were selling a lot of them to people in Montreal and that they wanted an older model that allowed for the heating of a pot on the top something the new Canadian regulations prevent in new heaters. He volunteered that in addition to the Quebecers and the cottagers he was selling them to computer guys, engineers and the like who are concerned about the Y2K problem. I'm more concerned at this point about the ice storm that was moving this way last winter and fortunately stopped about 60 miles to the east.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:19
4bear (got a god damn camunicashun breakdown) ID#26390:

with da preacher man, who informed us that he was in a strategy meeting but failed to give details. hey preacher man whats god got to say for
itself?

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:17
Earl (Salty:) ID#227238:
Copyright © 1998 Earl/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Seems to me to be a complicated system of receipting. Anything to prove the conveyance of the proper amount of danegelt should prove satisfactory. ...... to everyone except Polaroid of course. ..... And to those who find wretched excess impossible to achieve.

BTW, is this a universal license Including perhaps the right to mayhem? Does it include the right to licentiousness? Or is it limited to the aspiration of such? ...... a lifetime license sounds like a very important document. You have us on that one. The closest we can come to it, is a social security card. It keeps us secure, you know. .... Secure in everything except our persons, papers and personal property.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:08
ERLE (Selby,) ID#190411:
I ended up with a kerosene heater, by way of trade. It was rather battered, but it worked when I put kerosene, and a new D-cell battery in it. The single D-cell is for ignition. It works well. It'll cook you if you are in front of the reflector.
If you are suicidal, you might want to experiment with other fuels.
The unit is made by Bombardier, the snowmobile fokes. They wont run on alternative fuels either.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:04
Earl (RJ:) ID#227238:
LOL. .... Always wondered whence the term: foggy bottom.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:03
aurator () ID#255284:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Earl
I never said the compensation was fair, nor that it left those dispossessed of their land enamoured of the gobmint. Most kiwis have always felt a deep disrespect for gobmint. There may be a test of that disrespect on the horizon.

In the early 80's the then gobmint began issuing lifetime licences. They are ugly plastic impregnated paper certificates of awkward dimensions so they have to be folded at least twice to be fitted into a wallet. Our gobmint now wants to issue new lifetime licences that will have a digitised photo of each licence holder in a card. It was leaked to the press a couple of weeks ago that the contract had already been won by polaroid last June.
The legislation, which was passed through Parliament last week was slowed only by the argument over the cost to the licensee. Originally it was to cost us NZ$60 each, but the Gobming showed its merciful side at reduced the cost to $30 odd. This for ANOTHER liftime licence with a photographic ID.
Many of us are unpleased by such action. Already there have been calls to disobediance as part of the legislation makes it a crime Not to carry your licence when driving.

Earl
We're catching up real fast. Reel fast!

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:02
Earl (Selby:) ID#227238:
Copyright © 1998 Earl/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Perhaps things have changed in recent years but in the late 70's I tried heating my garage workshop with a kerosene heater. I didn't use it for very long and decided it was for very limited application and useage.

In my mind the products of combustion demand containment and exhaust. Period. Dwellings in cold climes tend to be more airtight. Ergo, greater danger.

Another approach I have considered for emergency heat is to use my wood fired tent stove. Place it on the deck or patio outside a patio door. Form a sheet metal containment around the stove ( excluding the stove pipe ) and seal to the door frame. Not super efficient but safe and reasonably effective. ...... Knocking out a window is still a better idea.

Date: Sat Nov 28 1998 00:01
RJ (..... Earl .....) ID#411259:

And all it takes to declare an area wetlands is for a septuagenarian Senator to develop a leak in his Depends whilst visiting a privately held property.

I have always wondered why his shoes would then not also be federally protected?

Seems odd………

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