Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 23:59
JTF (SEAsia and lower US rates) ID#210282:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: Although the US dollar is weakened, and gold is more likely to go up, the real benefit to the interest rate may be SEAsia markets. Any currency still pegged to the US dollar will be automatically devalued as well. Unfortunately there are less foreign countries that can benefit directly from this, given the turmoil in the SEAsia crisis began with currencies pegged to the US dollar -- but I think China and Hong Kong will still benefit.

Europe will benefit indirectly as they want to launch a strong Euro -- and the weaker the US dollar, the better chance they have of getting the EURO off the ground.

So -- now there are quite a few reasons for the US dollar to drop -- not just looming recession in the US.

We could be surprised by an Asia rally tomorrow -- even if I have no intention of being part of one.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 23:55
mozel (@Petronius) ID#153110:
Please post any online address explaining gasification in more detail. Or just explain it. TIA

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 23:53
morbius (Petronius (wood chips)) ID#35757:
Very interesting. Would you be so kind as to furnish some references?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 23:52
EJ (Japanese are stoked about the drop on their debt rating...) ID#45173:
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 11:49PM 14612.66 +199.66 +1.39%

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 23:50
Petronius (Generators - Ideal Fuel) ID#225236:
Copyright © 1998 Petronius/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Forget 2000 gallon tanks. Costs a lot of money, and you still only have enough energy to last you several months.

Did you know that you can use wood chips as fuel for 4-cycle engines? This has been done during WWII in Sweden through a process called gassification. In a nutshell, you partially burn wood chips in a special furnace. This produces a mixture of Methane and Carbon Oxide that can be used as fuel for any internal combustion engine ( 2-cycle, 4-cycle, or Diesel ) . 4-cycles are easiest to convert, converted diesels require small ammounts of diesel fuel for ignition. Swedish records indicate no unusual maintenence problems caused such conversions.

I am about to convert a 10KW Honda generator to run on wood chips. Could do it much faster if there were others interested in sharing the costs/rewards. The open market comercialization of such a product is rather impossible -- you deal with potentially lethal gases -- even though the whole thing is quite safe, it still can kill an idiot. ( Remember we live in times when Do Not Eat warnings are necessary on almost anything ) .

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 23:47
JTF (AG -- the inflation hawk -- lowers rates again.) ID#210282:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: I agree with one of our colleagues that it is puzzling that the markets and gold did not go up with the news. Sell on the ( expected ) news, perhaps? Regardless of what the markets are 'thinking', we need to think about why AG did what he did.

He has decided to steadily drop rates, and will probably continue to do so for some time. This is probably the strongest deflationary news we could imagine, since AG has so consistently watched out for inflation, and it would take alot for him to turn around and look the other direction.

I think we need to ask ourselves how close the derivatives/debt situation is to implosion -- somewhere in the world. Rudiger Dornbusch tells us that Brazil may go down the tubes around Carnival day -- not a wise thing to say publically, since the consensus has been that Brazil is 'too big to fail'. My reading of this, given the US interest rate reductions, is that the other shoe is about to fail -- somewhere.

We are going to have the rollercoaster ride of a lifetime -- gold equties will probably go down soon. If gold equities plumment, we will have an unbelievable bargain -- for a time at least. Short/intermediate term gold equity investors are likely to have some really nice ups and downs.

Just a thought for you all -- any thought about Y2k coming a year early? What is going to happen to all of those European derivatives trades on Jan 1999? All to be priced in Euros? Or -- just the new ones?

Just think what it must be like for a European Derivatives trader/banker type -- might be easy to screw up if you have to watch yet one more currency in your trades. All that commercial arbitrage might get messed up.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 23:46
morbius (kolorado ) ID#35757:
Import the best. Exploit the rest.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 23:45
aurator () ID#25490:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Yup PM of Malaysis is a murderer, he is not alone. Neither has he just become one. So, the thinking mind should enquire of Gore's goring: Why now? and Why not ( a ) earlier and ( b ) why not ANOTHER country?

This is surely the point, much as I have little time for our PM Shipley, she did get it right this time...The US ( Al Gore ) engaged in Foghorn diplomacy...just pissed off people who might otherwise have listened...

John B

Permit me to use your post for some THOUGHTS about coin mintages.
Was this part of Andy ( I want a subscription to the Antipodean Contrarian Newsletter ) Smith's article:?:

If the proposal passes
Parliamentary muster in debate on Tuesday November 17, it may, eventually and
on certain assumptions ( see below ) , easily absorb more gold than any coin in
history and soak up most of the pool of surplus EU gold reserves

At the lower figure of 1,000 tonnes, there are 32 million ( give or take ) 1 oz gold coins..They were talking of 100 Euro gold coins, we've not yet got a handle on how much gold would be in a 100 Euro coin, it depends, of course on the amount fixed.

At his higher figure of 21,000 tonnes ( quite a range, looks like our Andy doesn't know, he's out of the loop now, I guess ) that's 675 million oz.

According to my ( doubtful ) figures, there are about 500 million sovereigns minted and out there ( using 1/4 oz per sovereign -good enough for the calculation ) that's 125 m. oz about 3,800 tonnes.

If anyone has better figures please post. Would be obliged if anyone know of current total mintages of Gold–Eagles, Mounties, Phillies, WHU?

So, our mate Andy, is almost an optimistic bull now ( marvellous what a change of employer can do to one's outlook, eh ) . HE is now thinking that, at the lower limit of his possible ECU gold minting, there could be more 100 ECU coins than sovereigns minted.

I am starting to like this fella. Hey Nick@PrintingPresses....I think we should give ANDY SMITH a free trial subscription to the Antipodean Contrarian Newsletter. ( Just don't mention pork bellies this time. ) What ya think?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 23:38
EJ (@kolorado & savage) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

The Chinese woman you describe sounds like my wife ; )

I don't think you're gonna find Dell or Cisco in Asia. I still haven't quite figured out why, but Asia rewards conformity not non-conformity/inventiveness. In a world economy that expands with innovation, the US will continue to rule. Maybe that's not fair to all the hard-working Chinese. But capitalism doesn't necessarily reward work for its own sake, but work that produces the greatest incremental value.

Rice and beans, corn and beans, cabbage and beans. The question is not how long you can live on this diet -- probably years -- but how long others can live with you -- one, two evenings at the outside.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 23:27
Goldilocks (@ Savage - Both rice and beans, and corn and beans combinations) ID#377196:
will give you complete proteins, and as far as surviving on such a diet some poor South American farmers etc do so all their lives. But do keep in mind that complete protein is only part of the mix - you also need some greens and various vegetables for the vitamins etc, if for no other reason - and the better grown ( organic etc ) they are, the better. Most of those South American farmers get plenty of that stuff too, not to mention fruits. The rice and beans, or corn and beans just means you don't need meat or any other protein source.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 23:22
Auric (Rally Ahead For Gold!) ID#257312:

Kitco was very slow this evening. Can't even access the site now. Posting this from the mirror site. This is usually good for about a $5 gain.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 23:09
mole (hellooo) ID#350145:
The leader of Malaysia is a butcher. Get it?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 23:05
SWP1 (Re: Gore - That was his first shot in his presidential election publicity effort....) ID#233199:
I'm sure a lot of Americans will think he sounded suitably tough.

Oh well.....

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 23:00
Pete (Savage, OOPS,Lets try again) ID#42114:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 22:59
zeke (Diesel Power for Generators) ID#25257:
Diesel is more efficient and more reliable as I noted earlier, but don't forget to use additives for storage while cycling the fuel through tractors, Mercedes diesels and other machines. Gelation and Bacterial buildup IS a problem. Also, Electromagnetic Pulse will stop any electrically ignitioned engine, but not a diesel. If you don't think we are looking at a coming Decade of Nuclear Crises, you don't read the papers.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 22:57
Pete (Savage-Sharefins url) ID#42114:
Sorry, I forgot to add to my last message.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 22:57
Savage (Any dieticians about?) ID#290202:
Was it corn and beans, or rice and beans that made the perfect

dietary complement.? How long can you live on a tortilla diet ( corn

& beans ) ?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 22:51
Savage (Pete) ID#290202:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 22:45
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:
Further on the generator issue, propane stores indefinitely. Burns cleaner so plug fouling and carbon buildup is a much, much lessened problem. But do expect a 10% less power generating capacity from propane vs, gasoline. Natural gas is 20% less. ) Just means sizing the generator a little higher.

Make sure an inverter can handle the typical motor loads ( plus starting loads! ) . Loads such as well pump, furnace blower and refrigerator plus lights, tv and/or radio. No sense living in a 'tent'. Been there, done that, DON'T like it!

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 22:43
John B (Abstract of Andy Smith's Commentary Today ) ID#77133:
Copyright © 1998 John B/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Can a gold coin yet flip gold market sentiment? Yes, if the 'symbolic concessions' for Euro coins currently proposed by the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs and Industrial Policy Committee see the light of legislative day.

Moreover, this would be the real thing - no mere numismatic or collector's piece but a work-a-day, legal tender coin - a People's Coin: The value of the metal and the production cost must not exceed the nominal value. If the proposal passes Parliamentary muster in debate on Tuesday November 17, it may, eventually and on certain assumptions ( see below ) , easily absorb more gold than any coin in history and soak up most of the pool of surplus EU gold reserves.

The gold Euro baby could be thrown out with the technical bath water. Indeed, the political plug may yet be pulled: if the proposal passes its first reading in Parliament on November 17 it still has to get by the Council of Ministers, a second reading, and a second say-so by the Council - a Chinese water torture lasting until summer 1999. END


Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 22:40
kolorado (EJ, Who Cares?, Donald) ID#272206:
Copyright © 1998 kolorado/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Kitcoites are more sober now than during the recent $280 Gold dips. Why? These are the times we have been waiting for. I think many on this site are making the markets more complicated than they should. The equity markets are surging for no reason other than the amount of cash available in US private and public coffers. And why not? Stocks are much more fun to own than gold, especially when you can now trade online cheaply and snub your crooked broker! Stocks will keep surging until the thrill is gone. The breaking point was here in early October and passed, saved by the FED. Now the equity market will be even stronger. The Ponzi scheme will continue until Asia recovers. Then watch out. As usual big money is smart enough to recover from the Yen carry and error-modelled interest rate spread plays and move on to the next fad. This will again be Asia as US and European technology marches out to find the cheap labor markets. I work with a Chinese engineer from Beijing who is smarter than I am, can take care of her children,and work 8 hours a day, and get twice as much done as I do, and she works for less pay because she is afraid to ask for more. Not only that, but she is fluent in Chinese and English. This is what we all have to fear - people that deserve our standard of living and are waiting for their due. Some day they will get what they deserve, and we will get ours. The dollar will be in the dumpster and Pfizer, GAP, Microsoft, Cisco and Dell will headquarter in the Orient, where the growth will be. They will do more business in Oriental currencies than US, and they won't give a damn when the dollar tanks.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 22:38
Savage (TYoung, SIOP, Zeke, & Eldorado) ID#290202:
Thank you. btw what is sharefin's url?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 22:37
Pete (Savage, your 20:48 re: fuel and generators) ID#42114:
Copyright © 1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gasoline is the worst fuel to use because it has a minimum shelf life besides being dangerous to store near a residence in bulk and in all probability be illegal to do same.

Natural gas is also unreliable as a source of fuel also because who can say that it will be available due to Y2K.

Propane can be stored in tanks for an unlimited amnt of time but would need a large storage tank to run a generator for any extended time. I also believe that zoning laws in most areas, besides insurance, special permits, etc., require it to be stored underground because of threat for explosion.

Diesel fuel is the best choice. It has a longer shelf life than gasoline and can be stored in a tank above ground safely. A 500 gal tank ( +/-4' diam * 6' long tank ) will service your generator for approximately two mos or more depending on wattage used. These tanks can be rented and serviced by many local fuel suppliers. Another note, diesel engines are more reliable, stronger and will outlast a gasoline engine by better than 2 to 1.

Forget about converting a generator to run on alternate fuels as you will probably negate the warrenty and cut the life of your generator substantially.

A minimum of 8000kw ( 10,000kw is preferable ) would be neccessary to run your well pump, sump pumps, furnace, freezer, refrigerator, washer, dryer and of course your computor, TV, a few lights and electric space heaters if natural gas is curtailed by Y2K. An enclosed backup system with neccessary control panel for automatic operation for turn on and shutoff is the most desirable. You can get by with a smaller portable system of 5000kw and just plug in manually on an as needed basis if you want to operate efficiently without caring about the fuss and inconvenience entailed.

The cost would vary from $500 for the smaller system to $7000 for the larger backup system, ( 2 or 3 one oz gold coins? ( HOPEFULLY ) ) . If your fears about Y2K are realized, I believe you will be kicking yourself in the butt for not installing the fully automatic backup system. If Y2K amounts to nothing, you have at the least made a good capital investment to your property besides peace of mind.

Hope I have been useful to you,


PS: E-mail address for Slow speed Lister Petter Diesel Generator, 10,000kw, $2,000 +/- per unit.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 22:35
John B (Posted Earlier But) ID#77133:
Copyright © 1998 John B/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
worth a repeat if you haven't seen it. Any buy recommendation by a top Wall Street firm is a positive.

NEW YORK, Nov 17 ( Reuters ) - Bear Stearns analyst Mike Dudas said Tuesday he initiated coverage of precious metals companies Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. ( CDE.N ) , Homestake Mining Co. ( HM.N ) and Lazare Kaplan International Inc. ( LKI.A ) with BUY ratings.

Dudas also initiated coverage of Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX.TO ) ( ABX.N ) , Battle Mountain Gold Co. ( BMG.N ) , Cambior Inc. ( CBJ.TO ) , Helca Mining Co. ( HL.N ) and Stillwater Mining Co. ( SWC.A ) with an
attractive rating.

He started Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM.N ) and Placer Dome Inc. ( PDG.TO ) ( PDG.N ) with a neutral rating.

Further details were not immediately available.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 22:30
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:
Copyright © 1998 Eldorado/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Kinda' thought they would lower rates today. Thought that it would really cause the stox to rocket too. Well, they did that for a few minutes then died. I've been thinking since the weekend that today would be the last gasp in it, at least for awhile. Last gasp sure came up short of my expectations given the rate cut. Maybe they can hold it together for another week 'till the holiday is over.

Generators: Propane burning with a charger/inverter and a mean stack of batteries. Run generator maybe a couple hours/day on average to mainly recharge batteries and to take care of other heavy loads during those periods.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 22:16
Gollum (Away) ID#43352:
Good night.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 22:08
Winston (Former CIA director warns of y2k) ID#244418:
Copyright © 1998 Winston/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I just heard a real audio report from the McAlvaney Intelligence Advisor. McAlvaney heard former CIA director James Woolsey say that y2k would be worse than anyone expects, and that it will hit America like a storm. When Woolsey was asked about his own personal preparations, he replied that he was storing up food. You can hear this report, and seven or eight other ones by McAlvaney on Y2k, at
You will have to scroll down on the above page to McAlvaney Intelligence Advisor to select. There are a dozen other sources of Y2k audio reports on the same page.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 22:08
LazloT (American Liberty Currency) ID#316200:
NORFED has issued a currency directly convertable to silver.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 22:06
Gollum (@IGNATIUS ) ID#43352:
See my 21:29

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 22:06
Crystal Ball (@ EB) ID#287371:
Can't believe the Sheisskopfs lowered rates. I'm really p.o.'d ... totally buggered with my AOL puts. Snowball's chance in Hell !!

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:57
zeke (Generators) ID#25257:
Copyright © 1998 zeke/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The secret is to buy a diesel tractor which then allows you to purchase Farm Diesel for say 75 cents a gallon for storage in say a 200-gallon tank--on the farm of course. WINCO makes 12,000-Watt generator that connects to the power-take-off of the tractor. Only problem: Long-term storage of diesel requires an additive to kill Pseudomonas Aeroginosa bacterium and another to prevent gelation. Diesel engines are very stingy on fuel and much more reliable in extreme conditions such as during Electromagnetic Surge caused by an errant missile or such. They just keep on chugging.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:52
Tantalus (@Steve in TO, jpb, Nick@C - Leonids just another shower, not a storm) ID#317211:
Oh well, the fun is in the anticipation, no?
These astronomers get more excited than we Goldbugs.
And about mere grains of sand!
Someday, though, an entire ounce of Au.99999 shall decompose whilst melting through our atmosphere and POG shall rocket past the moon.

What a show it will be.

Meanwhile, this board is the best show in town. Regards to all.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:48
IGNATIUS (Leonids/IRA's) ID#381342:
Spent last night on ground under stars at the ranch SE Colorado ( went for firewood plus checkout coyotes and elk ) .Meteors after midnight frequent and so bright was awakened several times due to flickering light. Asia must have been wild!

Still searching for way to pull IRA rollover ( retirement ) away from brokers ( ie:take possession ) without tax liability.IMHO--- evaporation of co-mingled assets in these tax deferred accounts is most serious risk to all if system folds due to Y2k or other stresses.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:48
HepMeMoney_Hmm ( Andy Smith projected a figure of between 1,080 and 21,600 tonnes!!) ID#404124:
Copyright © 1998 HepMeMoney_Hmm/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gold just down in Europe, mulls gold euro

LONDON, Nov 17 ( Reuters ) - Gold softened during late European trade on Tuesday, uncovering support at $293.50 an ounce as dealers weighed the possible market impact of a European proposal for a gold euro coins.

Spot prices for platinum group metals moved little in response to tight supply outlooks released in a report by precious metals refiner Johnson Matthey.

London gold fixed at $293.80 in the afternoon, down on the morning's $294.60.

Bullion dealers also eyed Tuesday's meeting of the U.S. Federal Open Markets Committee ( FOMC ) and the much-touted possibility of an interest rate cut.

``Gold is just slipping gently but seems to have found support at $293.50,'' said one London dealer who played down the likely impact on gold of any rate cut.

``I think they have already factored in a 0.25 ( percentage point ) cut into dollar/yen,'' he said, adding that the significance of that currency cross for gold had declined in recent days.

Lower U.S. interest rates tend to weaken the dollar, which usually boosts spot gold on the expectation of increased physical demand for the metal priced in other currencies.

In France, European Monetary Affairs Commissioner Yves-Thibault de Silguy told Euro MPs there was ``real interest'' among national mints in deputies' idea to produce a gold euro coin. But he added such a coin could have only commemorative status.

The parliament had proposed minting a 100 euro coin made of gold as a way of using up central bank reserves and boosting confidence in the new currency.

Andy Smith of Mitsui commodities said in a report the potential offtake for such a coin depended on how many were minted and their gold content. He projected a figure of between 1,080 and 21,600 tonnes

``Can a gold coin yet flip gold market sentiment?'' he said. He felt it could but added that many hurdles remained to be cleared.

Spot gold was last trading at $294.70/$295.20, unchanged versus its previous New York close of $294.70/$295.20.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:43
HepMeMoney_Hmm (Go Gold ? What The &*($%$^$ ?) ID#404124:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:41
Gollum (Just irregularities) ID#43352:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:36
Gollum (When it comes time to go to the Euro, there may not be any left) ID#43352:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:33
pdeep (Al's MO) ID#174103:
The only way a rate cut made any sense to me is that Easy Al is aiming for nothing less than the complete destruction of the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency. Having been laughed at for his previous comments on the gold standard, he is creating conditions for a bonfire of fiat currencies. Either that, or he is completely bonkers.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:31
Mole (Hayek related research) ID#34883:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:29
Gollum (Meteor shower came too early) ID#43352:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:17
cherokee () ID#288230:

oil is STILL a buy imm....ltoww
as is gold.....

heard realistic has been doggin again.....
bring it on oh stinky one....i can smell
you above the ones here in d.c.....

time for ME to buy more gold amd crude calls....
you the dips....yar...for me..........


Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:14
panda (Who Cares?) ID#30126:
I don't discount the Dow or S&P going much higher, but, we've had a good run with very little retracement. I'm not saying bull or bear, but when did we throw out the 'pull back' phenomenon? On the other hand, gold on the monthly chart looks like a bottom being put in. The thing that I wonder is, will I live long enough to see a turn around in gold? :- ) )

And no, I have a 'few' more years to go before I won't get my SSI....

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:13
2BR02B? () ID#266105:

Tyoung-- @all...Japan...debt downgraded to Aa1


Read once that no sovereign nation-state in the post-WWII
era, once downgraded from AAA has ever regained it. Apparently
not just a 'rough patch' but more a formal recognition of that
which has become institutionalized.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:11
TYoung ( much gas...) ID#370218:
Go to sharfins page...find the link on making a DC charger from a small 3 hp gas engine with an alternator to charge a bank of batteries. Have the URL on the office computer if needed.


Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:10
Gollum (@Highhopes ) ID#43352:
Yeah, kinda weird looking. The last week or so the market has been flying on empty. Waiting for the great FOMC hope. Kinda like buy on the rumor, except not as much energy.

Finally came the annoucement. The last few buyers came rushing in.

To be met by smiling used stock salesmen making their exit.

Bonds the same way.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:08
panda (Who Cares?) ID#30126:
The risk lay in the collapse of the equity bubble. Lowering interest rates does wonders for confidence the first and second time, but like heroin, it loses something over time.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:05
TYoung (Well...ahhh..) ID#370218:
Donald...tops go to bottoms and bottoms go to tops...if we live long enough!

Who Cares....not if assest values which case loans are called and all hell hits the fan.

@all...Japan...debt downgraded to entity in any country can have a higher rating than the country...many funds and pension plans may not invest in less than Aaa the Japanese markets...not good.


Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:04
SIOP (Generators(Savage)) ID#286404:
I too have been thinking along the same lines as yourself on the storing of gasoline.I know that there are also diesel gen.s for sale ( starting at appx. $1500. ) .I think that a gen. that can run on propane and/or natural gas would be ideal.I remember people converting their cars to do this during the gas crunch days,I'm sure a lil' ol lawnmower engine can be converted.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:02
Highhopes (Gollum Ref. today's stock market action.) ID#404410:
I really thought today's action was very strange. Been watching markets since 1968. Weird action today! Get the impression that investor's might be asking themselves, What's wrong? What's the Fed worried about?


Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 21:02
mozel (@Who Cares @This Is Your Brain On Drugs.) ID#153110:
Congress in equilibrium Ha ! Absolute power imbalances absolutely.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:59
mozel (@Asset Growth @You Want It ?) ID#153110:
Tax assessors got it.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:57
EJ (@Who Cares? & Donald) ID#45173:
Donald, also, the wealthy folks I know feel entitled to wealth whereas most of the not well-off do not feel like they deserve to be wealthy.

Who Cares, I'm enjoying our discussion but have to run. I'd like to pick up later tho on your cash flow argument. You're right about that. That's why I say the rate of asset growth has to stay ahead of the rate of debt growth. You can't drop interest rates forever. Japan, for example.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:57
mozel (@ERLE) ID#153110:
Zola needs you.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:53
Gollum (Squiggles) ID#43352:
Path of man walking up to diving board tower, climibing ladder, walking out onto jiggly board, taking leap up into perfect swan dive...^dji

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:50
Who Cares? (No, no, no) ID#242214:
The debt / equity amounts don't matter. What matters is CASH FLOWS.

All Greenspan has to do is balance NET INTEREST PAYMENTS with NET
GROWTH in goods and services. That's all. Forget all this stuff about
huge debts piled up. There are two points where governments could
have done this. They screwed up the first point, where debt is
minimum. They still have one shot at equilibrium where debt is at
a maximum.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:49
EJ (Donald) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Nothing wrong with debt as long as your assets are appreciating faster than your liabilties. I don't believe in being debtless either, but I insist on productive debt. I won't buy a car on credit, for example. I also don't like high-risk debt, such as stock bought on margin.

We all have different risk tolerances. Generally speaking, the most wealthy people I know can tolerate a more risk than the least well-off folks I know. Most were born without a fear of living without money, either because they were born into a rich family or were raised in an environment where they felt secure and self-sufficient. Their expectation that they'll always have enough money was in their mother's milk. Paradoxically, it's their lack of fear of losing money that allows them to make so much.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:48
Savage (Question for.....any y2k chaos experts (Sharefin, Squirrel, Shek, et al)) ID#290202:
Checked out some generators today. The clerk explained pros and cons

of various sizes and then said, takes about a gallon of gas an hour to

run each of these. !!! At a gallon of gas an hour......if the blackout

period is two weeks or longer ( months? ) wouldn't that require a prohibitive

amount of gasoline to be stored? Several words come to mind: expensive,

bulky, flammable, looters, legality, obvious, smelly, dangerous, and how long can

it last.....what do you do this the right track....or, should we be

concentrating on other methods?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:47
Who Cares? (As Donald implies...) ID#242214:

being wrong gets old. I sure got tired of it. I have most of what little savings I have left in metals, but only because I'm totally paranoid at this point. : ) I don't expect to make any profit on them.

I'm completely unwilling to make bets against the status quo now.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:45
ERLE (@Who Cares) ID#190411:
Copyright © 1998 ERLE/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Well, you are provacative, as usual.
The savers in the US are getting to be a rather small lot. I don't see any way that they can be tapped for more paper than they have been already. Perhaps the FED will allow more debt creation against the bank deposits, but this would send a wave of treasury paper back home.
( This would be bad for gold, as it always goes down. )
Most Americans have zilch savings. They think of a 401k as savings, which it obviously isn't.
I heard that more than one-half of Merkin families have less than $1000. dollars in liquid assets, ( cash, demand deposits, and savings ) .
The leviathan can manipulate the financial markets so long as there isn't panic. Greenspan knows this, and I don't think that he cares a rat's ass.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:44
Who Cares? (Underestimating Greenspan) ID#242214:

Look, it's *working*. By forcing ever smaller returns on stocks,
money *is* flowing into bonds, reducing interest rates.

All Greenspan is doing is smoothing and lengthening the process
that naturally takes place during depressions. I think it's entirely
possible that the various governments around the world will be able
to smooth out business cycles, with government debt acting as a
gigantic capacitor.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:42
kiwi (US hypocrites...APEC fiasco) ID#194311:
Copyright © 1998 kiwi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Where were all the cries for freedom and democracy when everything was just honky-dory? Was Clinton asking for Suharto, Mahathir to go 2 years ago...bollocks he was....freedom and democracy when it suits.
Let's see f#$% faced Gore go to China and ask them for freedom and democracy...what a huge crock....goes around comes around...pull your head in America.

Hypocritical oafs....just how transparent are these fools and how much longer do we have to put up with this sh!t?

Why won't some of those Yankee militia get into Washington with a few truckloads of fertiliser and clean house real good?..take out media spin center while they're at it.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:42
Gollum (@gagnrad ) ID#43352:
And less incentive to lease gold to buy treasuries ( aka financial suicide ) .

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:39
EJ (Who Cares?) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I share your faith in Greenspan's wisdom and resourcefulness, he's a clever old coot, but I am not a Believer in the Models. Too many humans involved. Did Greenspan's models anticipate the LTCM fiasco? I don't think so. Did he have the wisdom and experience to understand what to do and react to it, yes.

You are prpbably correct that Greenspan is attempting to gradually move low-return savings into the real economy. However, it seems to be winding up in the financial markets instead. Anyone who's looking to solve the riddle of the balooning money supply that does not result in inflation is not looking at the market caps of US corporations. Talk about inflation.

As much fun as it is to attempt to modle them, markets and economies are psychological not mechanical phenomena. If a physical model can be said to approximate a market, then perhaps only a chaotic one applies. Widespread belief in financial rocket science is itself a very strong indication that we are at the top of a market.


Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:29
Gollum (@Who Cares) ID#43352:


Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:28
Donald (@EJ) ID#26793:
Something has been telling me that for thirty years but I have been wrong. Talked with a 54 year old today who is worth several million net ( by my guess ) but is heavily in debt. He could pay it off but thinks it is crazy to do so because he can do it later with cheaper dollars. So far he has been right and I have been wrong.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:26
gagnrad (Look on the bright side. Lower interest rates mean less incentive to buy bonds instead of gold.) ID#43460:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:23
Who Cares? (EJ and Greenspan) ID#242214:

Not true. You seriously underestimate the ability to monitor
markets, money, consumption and production in real-time. This ability
has never existed before.

Greenspan has a definite goal. Tied up hot money in long-term
low-interest loans to borrowers. If he can achieve this goal, he
can maintain a stable system for a long time. Perhaps another decade.

He has a goal. He has tools. He has credibility.

It's not wise to bet against him. yet.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:22
EJ (Donald) ID#45173:
Something tells me personal deficit spending is going to be out of fashion again before too long.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:20
Who Cares? (The Unanimous Decision IS a bad sign) ID#242214:
Copyright © 1998 Who Cares?/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

I'll agree with that. I'm surprised it was unanimous. That means
that many things are going on the background of which we have not
been informed. Either that, or the FOMC believes in Greenspan's
computer models now. : )

But I still wouldn't bet against the Feds until at least summer.

Heck, I'm starting to think they can buy us out of Y2K now. The
goal, the goal, keep thinking about the goal. Ultimately, Greenspan
wants to see all that hot money tied up in 30-year bonds and home
mortgages at 4%. THAT would do a *lot* to keep the economy running.

Greenspan is trying to narrow the chasm between borrowers and
savers. By reducing interest costs, savers have less incentive
to save - i.e. they start spending more; and borrowers are
saved from a debt implosion that bankrupts them AND the world

Theoretically, it's possible that he will succeed. If it weren't
for Y2K, I think I would favor the Feds 60/40.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:20
EJ (Who Cares?) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The Fed was conceived of as a reactive rather than a preventative agency. As it has adopted the prevention role it has naturally come to be seen as a predictor of the future. The Fed is no longer a central banking but a central planning agency. Thus the entire world stands by waiting to see what the Fed in general, and Greenspan in particular, is going to do.

The problem is that no one can predict the future. It's as foolish for the Fed to try. Soon enough the market learns the Fed's pattern and buttons and levers no longer work as the market predicts them before the Fed can act. That's why the market bearly reacted to the rate cut today. The rate cut was already priced in. With the financial markets driving the real economy rather than the other way around, and with the markets in a precarious bubble state ( did you read this month's Economist? ) , the Fed now HAS to do what the market expects the Fed to do. The real danger comes when the Fed, boxed in as it is, has to actually react to something that the financial markets don't expect. What if the Fed has to raise rates suddenly to avoid a speculative attack on the dollar? How about another hedge fund fiasco?

You're right. The Fed had no choice. But in his awkward and untenable role as Protector of the Future, Greenspan is set up for a bigger fall than that poor slob who raised rates before the crash of '29.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:15
AUH20 (IMHO) ID#200235:
The unamious decision by the FOMC is not a good sign. We at the Kitco roundtable have more knowledge about the financial crisis in the US and abroad than 99% of the worlds population.

It is obvious , now, however that the world economy is even worse than we thought. The unamious cut by FOMC illustrates that they have knowledge and information that far exceeds our ( KITCO ) previous prognostications.

We in deep doo do now.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:15
gagnrad (I would like apologise to the people of Malaysia.) ID#43460:
Al Gore does not represent the hearts and minds of the American people. He is a wicked man who should resign in shame.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:14
Nick@C (ERLE@algore fan club) ID#386245:
You are right, mate. At least George Bush had the good taste to throw up on the Japanese Prime Minister. algore has less panache.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:13
Gollum (@EJ ) ID#43352:
One generally expects a breakout either up or down just before or at the apex of a wedge formation. The chart looks like one may be starting on the downside. Could this be the beginning of the move toward APH's 4.40?

Silver is also looking kinf of weak against gold. This coupled with the steady increase in COMEX stocks the last few days does not bode well.

Of course, it might just be contrarian enough to head for the moon.

In any case, step lightly, silver bulls.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:11
Donald (Only old geezers think you need to limit spending to what you earn.) ID#26793:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:07
EJ (Gollum) ID#45173:
What's the wedge say, Gollum-san.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:04
gagnrad (jims re gold stocks, for all some unrelated historical links) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
jims, I have been happy with my DROOY this year. It has done fairly well as you can see from the graph. ( No advice nor recommendation to buy is stated nor implied. )

All, here are some interesting URLS I looked up today when just for the fun of it. They have to do with the check and balance which has been missing from 'Merkan politics since the first third of the 19th century.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:03
Gollum (Gold may hold another day or two) ID#43352:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:02
ERLE (Nick@C) ID#190411:
Why get worked up about the incomparably obtuse, algore.
I am sure that there are websites devoted to the bilge that floweth from its' facial orifice.
The fault lies with the Maylaysian government in not anticipating the situation. They should have had many whipped cream pies for the guests.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 20:00
Gollum (Silver wedge does not look happy) ID#43352:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 19:59
sig (The VP) ID#113316:
Its as simple as this; Al Gore is a dolt.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 19:58
Donald (Oil prices to remain depressed far into the next decade.) ID#26793:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 19:57
Nick@C (Leonid schmeonid!!) ID#386245:
There I was, up at 3:30 AM to look at the spectacular underside of total cloud cover. The only shooting stars I saw were from the Cuervo Especial of a few hours earlier!!!

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 19:55
ERLE (Silverbaron,) ID#190411:
Copyright © 1998 ERLE/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I don't think that you should be anywhere near gold at Y2K.
You did see in my extensively researched hypothesis, that gold will collapse on itself, somewhat like a neutron star. The gamma radiation will kill any gold bug that is near this danger.
If irradiated with the calculated 500k RADs/ sq cm, then you must seek immediate medical attention from your local gommint run health provider.
I wanted to clue you people in on the Grand Unified Theory of goldbuggery. The convergence of unusual celestial and planetary activity, Y2K, and golf, will become apparent to we astute observers, shortly. ......Damned shortly's.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 19:51
Who Cares? (I see unhappiness and surprise reign supreme at Kitco) ID#242214:
Copyright © 1998 Who Cares?/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

come on.

What did you guys think?

That Greenspan was going to crash the system?

It's not going to happen. In fact, I would now bet money on
another rate cut in the 1st quarter of 99. These guys are
determined to keep it going, and they can do it, too.

Shut yo' mouth

Who is the Fed that would risk his bonds for another Fed?


They say that Fed SPAN is a bad-mutha!

You guys cracked me up today. Greenspan will be sorry. Perhaps,
but not half as sorry as living perpetually in history as the Man
that Crashed the Market by raising real interest rates, like the
sap from 1929 that raised rates 1/4 point several months BEFORE
the Crash and never, EVER gets any credit for cutting them
immediately following the Crash. : )

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 19:49
Nick@C (G'day SDRer) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I don't know if 'shooting from the lip' is just an American disease, but American politicians sure have turned it into an art form. I'm sure the speech Gore made was first vetted by the Trouserless One, so the insult was obviously intended. It is not as if the Asians are not already totally pissed off with America. What purpose does further insult serve This is 'meddling in OUR internal affairs', according to the Asians. I don't know if using a sledge hammer on a dictatorial regime is the best method of turning it into a democracy, after America's own image. It just raises hackles even more and guarantees stiffer resistance to change.

Perhaps all American politicians should be compulsorily put through 'diplomacy school'!?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 19:43
BUGal (@ Nick@C.... ALgore) ID#206235:
I hope Al remembered to also mention that those dang ignorant Malay's oughtta quit cutting down trees to build themselves shelters and such.... because it just isn't nice to mistreat those tree's that way in Al's world ...

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 19:43
Donald (Swiss UBS reports US$660 million loss due to LTCM investments) ID#26793:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 19:32
BUGal (Kaplan Comments..... Bullish?) ID#206235:
Copyright © 1998 BUGal/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Uhhh do these comments by Kaplan mean he is bullish on general equities hehe

I WAS WRONG! To my surprise, the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates, apparently concluding that the rally in internet-related stocks and IPOs was faltering badly. There is some logic in the Fed's move, as there are a few of these stocks that actually have P/E ratios below 1000.

Instead of removing the punch bowl, Alan Greenspan decided to join the crowd and party on. The prospect of increased future inflation was not lost on bond market traders, the one segment of the market where intelligence is not derided as a major obstacle to success. There is not much that one can say about the euphoric pop and drop behavior of the Dow following the rate cut announcement, except to say that investors who buy stocks with the Dow above 9000 are going to get exactly what they deserve. The Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization shares, at least, remained in negative territory throughout the day. Precious metals will be the only winners in an environment of aggressive rate cutting combined with a high P/E equity market, as historical evidence has shown. Look for a substantial decline in the U.S. dollar over the next several months.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 19:31
Silverbaron (ERLE) ID#290456:

Should your illustrious forecast come to pass, I personally plan to purchase the entire supply of gold on planet earth on Dec 27, 1999.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 19:30
Donald (93,812 Japanese considered high income based upon 1997 taxes. Lowest since '87) ID#26793:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 19:28
jpb (Leonids from Tokyo) ID#248234:
Up twixt 3 and 4 am for the promised show. Quite a few others out and ready for fun. Clear skies, all constellations on display. Counted 18 in an hour. While walking home, a showstopper: rock of size or composition adequate to spark colors and leave its own fiery trail. Also left a smoke trail that remained for about half a minute. In sum: not as spectacular as hoped.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 19:27
Mole (@ERLE/19:06) ID#34883:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 19:17
MM (Oliver) ID#350179:
Il me semble comme ça...

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 19:16
ERLE (POG prediction,) ID#190411:
Copyright © 1998 ERLE/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Prechter, IMHO, chose the wrong wave pattern in his eleven-year-old price prediction of 200 USD for gold.
He obviously neglects the super-wave that is now upon us.
As one can easily see with the simplest tools- a gold chart and a see-through straight-edge, that we are in a fundlemental death-spiral.
Extrapolating the data, I get a POG of zero, on, or about 27 Dec 1999.
At that time, gold will collapse on itself, with a burst of gamma-radiation, and migrate to the center of the earth, where it will occupy a volume the size of a small facial blackhead.
Luckily for we hard-money types, it won't vanish completely, but will be held up by its own neutron-degeneracy pressure.
By acclaimation of all paid-up members of the UN, it will become the heritage of all personkind, and any gommint will be able to issue paper against our common heritage.
The period will be known as the Paper Golden Age Of Universal Prosperity And Plenty. In April of 2006, the forests will have been denuded, and we will collectively die.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 19:03
EJ (SDRer) ID#45173:
You raise an interesting point that I sometimes forget. It ain't just hedge funds and banks in the derivatives biz. There are a lot of companies out there doing derivatives trading, too. The new laws that go into effect Jan. 1 will require all to disclose. Will make for some interesting reading. And I thought McDonalds made hamburgers.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:59
Mole (The Four-letter Word/Wanniski re:****) ID#34883:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:58
EJ (Greenstone Gold ) ID#45173:
I'd have a lot more respect for Gore if I thought he'd insulted the Asian dictators on purpose.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:58
Donald (@SDRer) ID#26793:
I always liked that man. His head is screwed on right.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:57
SDRer (Nick@C--one wonders if the administration is working hard) ID#290172:
to start a war: the BigBananaThreat [there goes Europe], Elaine B losing her temper and insulting the Japanese ( serious enough to warrant a first page slot in FT, with comments about lack of diplomatic feeling...
Wild recklessness? Or is there purpose? Difficult to imagine what it would be...{:- ( (

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:56
EJ (Donald) ID#45173:
Er, then maybe it was me that was away. Anyway, enjoy your posts.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:55
Greenstone Gold (Al Gore..............) ID#428232:

Not only, but after......had a passing thought.......

Did I say something!!

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:51
SDRer (Donald--Volcker wins award for Quip of the Year) ID#290172:

``People have a feeling that, if Mr. Greenspan pushes the right buttons, everything comes right. Sometimes the buttons are not connected with the ( economic fundamentals ) .''

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:49
Nick@C (Al Gore was invited out to dinner...) ID#386245:
...and upon his arrival he unzipped his fly and pissed all over the dinner table. Or so it seemed to the Malaysians yesterday.

I agree completely with what he said. The way he said it exemplified to Asians everything that is crass and overbearing about America. He could not have insulted them more if he had actually done the above. This guy is not Prez material. He'll soon have the half of the world that does not already hate America doing so in short order.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:47
Donald (Doomsday looms for Russian banks and an item of special interest on Russian oil.) ID#26793:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:45
Squirrel (The gravy train halts service on 01/01/00 - Sharefin@11:59) ID#280214:
Responsibility will come home to roost.
Meanwhile - Gold continues to roll along in the gutter.
Might there be a stormwater drain coming up?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:44
Donald (@EJ) ID#26793:
Huh? Been here every day but usually post in the early morning.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:42
EJ (Donald) ID#45173:
I noticed you were away for a while. Missed your excellent links and commentary. Welcome back.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:39
SDRer (EJ--derivatives: Here is a toothsome candidate for Trouble) ID#290172:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
NEW YORK, Wednesday, September 23, 1998 -- The International Swaps and Derivatives Association ( ISDA ) called attention to September 30 as the cut-off date to sign its EMU Protocol, which amends existing derivatives contracts between signatories in anticipation of the replacement of the national currencies of EMU countries by the euro. Users of privately negotiated derivatives should determine their need to amend existing master agreements and act promptly, the association urged.

There was quite a bit of heavy breathing over this little bombshell. Merrill was dragging its heels, as was GS ( I think it was GS ) . Some salient facts about what Euro means to dollar:Euro-currencies denominated 'stuff' is beginning to sink in. A little difficult to feel to sorry for them; the ISDA held a big meeting for the New York players to explain the whole thingy-twenty, not senior, people managed to straggle in.

Goldman's International Bank didn't sign, nor did Merrill ( nor did MacDonald's for that matter ) …
To see who did and who didn't--
( 2 ) The actual list of signers…>

In point of fact, the euro offers a number of possibilities for high caliber disappointments.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:35
Donald (Paul Volcker says the troubles of the early 80's are linked to the problems of today.) ID#26793:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:33
Nick@C (LGB) ID#386245:
I am sending you the bill for the spilled coffee on my keyboard!!

I've been reading in the media about the meteor shower from comet Temple Tuttle's tail,.... have stated that it's outer orbit is Around Uranus.... I've been looking over my shoulder and down in paranoia ever since !!

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:23
Donald (Europe charges that Korea uses IMF funds to undercut their shipbuilding by 30%) ID#26793:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:16
Aragorn III (U.S. Fed spokeswoman says Fed Board vote to cut Discount Rate was unanimous.) ID#212323:
And now that you know...I gotta go.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:14
CompGeek (@oliver) ID#343259:
House of Cards, but a stacked deck, I think.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:10
EJ (Oliver: hello) ID#45173:
The derivatives data is hard to read. Most of the trillions of dollars of derivatives you read about are no more worrisome than, say, the derivatives a farmer uses to hedge against future low commodities prices, i.e., futures. It's hard to say what the real risks are. Sure sounds scary, but friends in the derivatives biz tell me the LTCM fiasco made the high-risk, high-leverage derivatives very unpopular all of a sudden and most if not all of these positions are already unwound.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:09
Re youe earlier Hopefully the emphemeris on Tuttle was Y2k compliant?

I'm not sure about that, but I do know that all the lectures I've been reading in the media about the meteor shower from comet Temple Tuttle's tail,.... have stated that it's outer orbit is Around Uranus.... I've been looking over my shoulder and down in paranoia ever since !!

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:05
FOX-MAN (ON GOLD STATS:9,944 oz's that were withdrawn, were from eligibles....FWIW) ID#288186:
See ya....

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:02
FOX-MAN (Comex Metal Warehouse Totals....) ID#288186:

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Nov. 17

Gold 818,145 - 10,040 troy ounces
Silver 75,700,736 + 600,372 troy ounces
Copper 69,515 + 0 short tons

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:02
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
XAU/Spot Ratio = .259. The 233 day moving average is .248

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 18:00
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.56. The 233 day moving average is 29.01

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 17:59
Oliver (Is everybody knockout?) ID#242259:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 17:43
Oliver (Typo!) ID#242214:
Card = Cards

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 17:41
Oliver (The NAKED EMPEROR sitting on a house of card!) ID#242214:
If Chase were to suffer a 10% loss in the derivative exposure which expires in less than one year, their entire asset base would be wiped out.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 17:36
Oliver (Sheevers.....!!!!) ID#242214:
Copyright © 1998 Oliver/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
From Cyclo Pro:

he Quarterly Derivatives Fact Sheet from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency ( OCC ) is a collection of derivative activity information from all banks. Each

bank must prepare a Condition and Income report from which the OCC gathers its data. The most recent report available is currently the 1998 Q2 report from

which the data herein was obtained ( the Q3 report should be available soon ) .

What is a derivative? The OCC glossary contains the following definition: a derivative is a contract whose value is derived from the performance of

assets, interest rates, currency exchange rates, or indexes. Derivative transactions include a wide assortment of financial contracts including structured debt

obligations and deposits, swaps, futures, options, caps, floors, collars, forwards, and various combinations thereof...

Perhaps the most striking single piece of information in the report is the fact that the total amount of derivatives held by U.S. banks is $28,176,000,000,000 -- in

case you did not count the zeroes, that's $28 Trillion!!

This staggering sum is comprised of $10 Trillion in futures and forwards, $11 trillion in swaps, and $7 Trillion in options. The rest is a fairly insignificant $129 Billion

in credit derivatives. $20 Trillion is concentrated in interest rates and $8 Trillion is in foreign exchange derivatives.

The top 8 U.S. banks hold 95% ( $26.6 Trillion ) of all reported derivatives. These top banks include the following ( with stock symbol ) : Chase ( CMB ) includes

Chemical from merger, J.P.Morgan ( JPM ) , Citibank ( CCI ) , NationsBank ( NB ) , Bankers Trust ( BT ) , Bank of America ( BAC ) , First Chicago ( FCN ) , and Bank of

New York ( BNY ) .

When looking at the percentage of credit exposure to risk based capital, JPMorgan has exposure of 728%, Bankers Trust has 373%, Chase has 334%, Citibank

has 194%, and First Chicago has 175%. The other big banks are exposed for less than 100% of their capital.

Up through Q2 ( June 30, 1998 ) , the banks have made money on their derivative positions, as follows: $1.4 Billion from foreign exchange and $930 Million from

interest rates.

JPMorgan derives 23% of all of its revenue from trading derivatives compared to the next closest bank, Citibank which derives only 7% from its derivative trading.

To be up-front, not all of the $28 Trillion exposure is currently at risk. Actually, when looking at only interest rate and foreign exchange derivatives, only $11

Trillion is at risk with an expiration horizon of less than one year and another $11 Trillion exposure for a 1-5 year expiration horizon. Whew, that's a relief!

It should also be pointed out that only $109 Billion in derivatives is exposed for less than 1 year for equities ( stock market ) . Commodities ( including gold and

precious metals ) are only $71 Billion for less than one year to expiration.

The following table demonstrates the breakdown by category of risk exposure for the 8 banks with the highest derivative positions held. The columns have the

following meanings: Assets is the total assets of each bank, Derivs is the total derivative exposure ( all expirations ) , One Year is the total derivative exposure that

expires in less than one year, Equity is the banks exposure to the stock markets, and 30% Corr is the amount of derivative loss if the stock markets suffer a 30%

correction within one year.




One Yr


30% Corr

























Bk Trust






Bk Amer






1st Chicago






Bk of NY






One you can see, if Chase were to suffer a 10% loss in the derivative exposure which expires in less than one year, their entire asset base would be wiped out. For

JPMorgan it would only take an 11% loss to wipe out their asset base.

For the banks exposure to only the stock markets, JPMorgan leads the pack. If stocks suffer a market correction of 30%, JPMorgan could stand to lose $16.2

Billion. And, that's only their equity derivative exposure with an expiration of less than one year. If the stock markets entered into a long-term bear market lasting 5

years or more, JPMorgan's exposure would be $76 Billion and a 30% correction over that time could result in a loss of $22.8 Billion.

It appears to me that several of these banks have been in a difficult situation for the past few quarters. Many of these banks participated in investing in the LTCM

hedge fund, in addition to directly holding derivatives, which magnified their exposure to market fluctuations. The near collapse of LTCM would have been a disaster

for many of these banks. First, the forced liquidation of the derivatives held by LTCM would have certainly caused the markets to fall even further. Second, the

leveraged exposure these banks had to the markets directly though their own derivative positions, would certainly have added to their losses. Third, with a portion of

derivatives expiring on October 16, 1998, it is no wonder that the FED stepped in to assist in a multi-participation bank bailout of LTCM and announced an

emergency rate reduction on the day before many derivatives were set to expire.

In prior articles, I mentioned that JPMorgan holds controlling interest in the stock of the Federal Reserve Bank, and the FED has been instrumental in making

market-moving announcements over the past few quarters -- it does not take much effort to suggest that ulterior motives may have been at work to influence the

FED's decisions.

The main problem currently being faced by the FED and the banks is what to do next. If interest rates are lowered again, it may cause rate-sensitive derivatives to

generate extreme losses for the banks. Chase has $2.2 Trillion in derivative exposure that expires in less than one year, JPMorgan has $1.6 Trillion exposure.

In addition, adjusting interest rates will also affect currency exchange rates. Chase and Citibank each hold $1.4 Trillion of foreign currency derivatives, and

JPMorgan holds $829 Billion, all expiring in less than one year.

If you have ever wanted to witness an ultra-high stakes situation where the players were literally between a rock and a hard place, this has got to be the very best

example that you will ever see. Unfortunately, none of the information will be made public ( if at all ) until well after the major events have taken place.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 17:35
WhisperingLow (Alberich, re:Edelson) ID#243415:
Copyright © 1998 WhisperingLow/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
IMHO the editors of Safe Money tailor their advice for conservative investors. They seem to try & protect their readers from disasterous surprises such as an ultimate target for gold to 190 also predicted by E-Wave guru Bob Precter. Although both see this as a distinct possibility in a very deflationary environment, they both suggest that gold may be a great investment in the longer view. Both may be wrong or premature. Precter has been taking this position since 1987. Weiss more recently has been incorrectly anticipating a sharp increase in interest rates. Edelson, on the other hand, predicted a drop in silver ( around $5.50 at the time which seemed a good call ) .

All in all, I think Safe Money is an excellent newsletter. But, at the same time, as an active investor I feel that we all have to carefully weigh recommendations. For example: ( 1 ) I'm not sure that I want to totally exit the market ( although I am defensively positioned ) . ( 2 ) S&P 99 105Leaps can get expensive ( unless offset by continuing to hold improving equitities in a risky market environment ) . ( 3 ) Shorting Telebras should be entered with caution. ( When looking at a monthly chart, TBR is bouncing off a September low of $50 ) .

Safe Money is perhaps better at judging world conditions ( fundamentals ) than at specific trading advice ( technicals ) which perhaps is to be expected in a monthly newsletter for conservative readers. ( They have a much more expensive fax service for specific trading advice ) .

And perhaps they are negative biasing a bit to launch their new newsletter slanted toward taking advantage of Y-2 concerns.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 17:34
EJ (Rate Cut: We were wrong) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Just goes to show how optimistic we goldbugs are. We thought the world economy was in turn-around and the US headed for a soft landing so that the Fed wouldn't have to cut rates for the third time in six weeks. No such luck.

After rising for so many years, the US is bumping along the top of a very steep peak. On the other side, an extremely sharp drop-off. The Fed has come to realize that the danger to the US and world economy is not Russia or Japan or Brazil. The biggest danger to the US economy and the world is the US economy: huge asset bubble, the health of which determines the fate of the real economy; heavy corporate and consumer indebtedness; and deflationary pressures, externally from imports and internally from -- paradoxically -- improved productivity. Since the financial markets are driving the real economy, supporting the financial markets with further rate cuts is going to get very dicey as the real economy slows.

AG will regret that he used up one of his shots so early. He'll need many toward the latter half of next year to cushion the impact of Y2K on the financial markets. Y2K represents the largest indeterminable systemic risk in history. You can't diversify a portfolio of stocks against this risk so portfolio managers will start to move into cash and bonds. This may save the US from a euro-driven US Treasury sell-off. Perhaps a perception of the US as more Y2K ready will help the dollar. Won't help the US stock market, though. Stocks will be perceievd as too high risk in the coming risk-adverse environment.

Soon enough we'll all be whining about how gold is so expensive and wishing we'd bought more when it was cheap.


Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 17:30
Oliver (LGB...look....Oh..Oh...S@h!t..) ID#242214:
Derivatives Banks expo:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 17:18
jims (LBG) ID#252391:
Thanks for pointing out the relative strenght of PDG - one that I haven't been watching closely enough, apparently.

There certainly have been some explosive moves since The end of August. The interest rate picture gives me confidence that things won't slip all the way back but rather consolidate for the roarings last year of the century.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 17:18
Hopefully the emphemeris on Tuttle was Y2k compliant? % )

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 17:15
JP (A cut in fed discount rate is very bullish for gold) ID#253153:
It's interesting to note that with a fed rate cut today the Dow ended down for the day. More important foreign trade number for the month of Oct will be announced tomorrow. We are in a slow moving gold BULL market with the price of gold holding above it's 200 day moving averages. Just hang to your gold and mining shares. The price of crude oil recorded new low's today closing at $12.45 bbl. Deflation is beginning to hit the oil patch pretty hard.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 17:14
STUDIO.R (@LGB.O..........) ID#119358:
we had damn little damage here at the house... ;^ ) ~

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 17:14
EJ (Gollum) ID#45173:
Yes, I'm betting the big money figures it's pulled in the maximum and it's time to skin 'em. Bought some more BEARX today.

Let the riiiiiping begin.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 17:05
LGB (@ Leonid Meteors) ID#269409:
As predicted.....the most intense part of the meteor stream is past..with nary a hint of a satellite hit. This'll be yet the latest disappointment to those who believeed the overblown and overhyped Danger to societal infrastructure as we know it.

Prelude to Y2K magnitude perhaps.......

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 17:04
Who Cares? (Greenspan cut.. and the market hovered) ID#242214:

In other words, our pal Al got exactly what he wanted. A bunch of
guys hanging in the market, earning a real return of 1-2%, and waiting
for a few more weeks before panicking.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 17:02
LGB (@ jims.... SWC, HGMCY only metal winners? ) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You said Buying SWC and HGMCY - only metal miner winners this year?. and certainly they have done quite well from their early 98 lows. But there are a number of other mining share winners, albeit not as impressive.

Placer Dome ( PDG ) for example, up approx. 100% from it's 98 lows.

The behemouth, Homestake Mining, up approx. 60% from it's 98 lows..and up 4% + today, outgaining most other mining shares.

Plenty of opportunity for gains in a sector that saw such horrific losses over the past few years. ( For those that can stay afloat and have reasonble reserves and production costs anyway!

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 17:01
korondy (Dow) ID#81288:
Is this turkey cooked yet?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 16:58
Silverbaron (New JP Morgan Report on gold leasing) ID#290456:

See NEM's post on the golden eagle forum at 12:37. Does anybody have a copy of this report?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 16:55
STUDIO.R (@mid-continent crude.........$9.75/bbl........) ID#119358:
gasoline at 75 cents all over about gettin' your face ripped off...ahhheeeee!!! somebody buy me a, my tab's maxed out! pleeeeese. a couple'o'buttons for your ol' pal studio.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 16:44
Bill Buckler (Buy - and Sell - on Fact) ID#256381:
Dow up 90 odd points only to close down 25, all in the final 90 minutes. Quite a series of events just passed and still to come

Yesterday: Moody's downgrades Japan's sovereign debt

Today: US rate cut - third one in six weeks

Tomorrow: Clinton off for a summit in Japan ( and South Korea )

Nov 25-30: Japan/China Summit in Tokyo. Chinese head of state to visit Japan for first time ever.

The plot is definitely thickening nicely.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 16:38
ALBERICH (SDRer, Aragron III: Thank you. I highly appreciate your comments) ID#212197:
re: Mr. Edelson.
This is insofar very valuable, as I'll put some money on this bet pro gold, expecting it to move up in connection with the EURO and ECB.

Very exciting!

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 16:21
Gollum (@EJ) ID#43349:
Face ripping time is getting closer, maybe Friday?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 16:18
James (Greenspoon@Blew whatever credibility he had left. He is showing that) ID#252150:
he's afraid & has lost control.

Shorted PDG & added to my AMAT & INTC shorts. I don't think that they will let AU out of the box & the shorts will wear out the longs.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 16:14
WhisperingLow (Dow gyrating Average confusing?) ID#243415:
After rate cut Dow moved up in response. Bonds moved down. Foreign currencies then moved down somewhat in support of dollar & bond market. Now at 3:45PM the Dow is down 25. Bond market off 12.

Perhaps the U.S. market is waiting to see how the foreign markets respond to a weakened dollar. Also the market had already anticipated the rate drop ( buy on rumor, sell on news ) .

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 16:05
Gollum (@jims ) ID#43349:
The market is driven by emotion in the short run and is only predictable on a short term basis at that level.

Long term lower rates would be bullish ( or at least less bearish ) for gold. For one thing it makes the gold carry trade less profitable, and with all the hot money running hither and yon, much more risky.

Buy/sell on the rumor, sell/buy on the news seems to be the order of the day.

Tomorrow and especially Thursday, I think, will do well, but no one is going to want to hang around for the weekend.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 16:05
Aragorn III (ALBERICH) ID#212323:
Copyright © 1998 Aragorn III/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Without saying too much, as I frequently do, let me give your question the briefest attention that may satisfy your curiosity. You said, ( a quote from Larry Edelson )
'According to my inside sources in Europe, the new European Central Bank
( ECB ) has unofficially declassified gold as a reserve asset. Bottom
line: Without official reserve status, it would be much easier for the
ECB to sell gold in the open market. In the worst case, gold could drop
through near-term support, fall like a rock and then test major
long-term support at $190 to $200.'
Could it be that Larry Edelson became a victim of deliberate

A bank may hold gold in a category as a monetary asset within their convertible currency reserves, OR they can simply hold gold as an asset of a different nature. ( see recent post by SDRer for the first part of the story )
Where Mr. Edelson gets into trouble is with the 'analysis' he puts on the rumour. He seems to be of the view that it is the official reserve status that has artificially manitained the price of gold at these unnaturally high levels. In fact, the opposite is true...the official attachment has acted as an anchor! Ballast to a hot air balloon. You should interpret ECB efforts as a means to cut loose this ballast, while they ride the ascending gold balloon to the skies.
Don't fear for a flood of gold to leave the will indeed remain an asset to the bank.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:57
jims (Gollumn and Cyclist) ID#252391:
Glad to see I'm in good company - life span of a gold bug, Mr. Cyclist

How did you do today Well, I hope and better on the long side tomorrow.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:53
jims (Hitting the bids on rate cut) ID#252391:
The little pop in stocks and mining issues seemed to have been hit by profit takers. Can't see how lower interest rates will be bearish for gold - but then I have been surprised.

Watch for the South Africans to lead higher tomorrow. Lower interest rate environment will be bullish for gold - wait till tomorrow.

Buying SWC and HGMCY - only metal miner winners this year?.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:51
Cyclist (NEM) ID#339274:
FWIW covered at 21 13/16

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:50
Cyclist (XAU) ID#339274:
FWIW we are getting in the middle of the range that could be bullish for tomorrow.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:49
glenn (XAU) ID#429363:
The way the XAU was up today, bode well for tomorrow but it has been coming down hard in the past half hour. Oh-well. I guess being a gold bug does not last long these days.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:41
SIOP (Ethno-Blaster) ID#286404:
John Disney:

I believe that there is quite some friction between Sephardi and Asheknazy and i have heard the Asheknazy called non-Semitic.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:31
Ridgerunner (My apologies if this has already been posted.) ID#356379:
Copyright © 1998 Ridgerunner/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Start of a trend?

RESEARCH ALERT-Bear Stearns starts precious metals

NEW YORK, Nov 17 ( Reuters ) - Bear Stearns analyst Mike Dudas said Tuesday he initiated coverage of precious metals companies Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. ( CDE.N ) , Homestake Mining Co. ( HM.N ) and Lazare Kaplan International Inc. ( LKI.A ) with buy ratings.

Dudas also initiated coverage of Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX.TO ) ( ABX.N ) , Battle Mountain Gold Co. ( BMG.N ) , Cambior Inc. ( CBJ.TO ) , Helca Mining Co. ( HL.N ) and Stillwater Mining Co. ( SWC.A ) with an attractive rating.

He started Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM.N ) and Placer Dome Inc. ( PDG.TO ) ( PDG.N ) with a neutral rating.

Further details were not immediately available.

Coeur shares closed at 5-3/8, Homestake Mining shares closed at 11-7/8, Lazare closed at 7-1/8, Barrick Gold shares closed at 20-9/16, Battle Mountain closed at 5-3/8, Helca closed at 4-9/16, Stillwater closed at 31-3/4, Newmont closed at 21-3/8 and Placer shares closed at 15-3/4 on Monday.

09:43 11-17-98

Back to the still...


Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:25
Cyclist (XAU) ID#339274:
FWIW out right sell signal,target 75 /76

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:23
Fordrik (@JohnDisney..Could you provide the address of the Global Intell. piece ) ID#271125:
you kindly presented re: Saddam and the US Foreign Nightmare. In regards to your wifes questions. The UK Sunday Times ( Nov 15th Ed. ) had the piece on Israels ethno specific weapons program. It is, by their account, both real, dispicable and continues .

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:19
NTEOTWAWKI (@glenn) ID#389387:
Just curious. Are you a gen-X or younger?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:18
Fordrik (3 seperate points..Could someone explain why one would not sell) ID#271125:
forward and buy in the spot as the mining firms do ( via cash or production ) and extract an extra 45-50 dollars in the forward market ? Is that not a 16% return. Perhaps the quoted forward sales that the likes of

Barrick and Placer require other 'hedging techniques'.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:13
glenn (Gold) ID#429363:
Copyright © 1998 glenn/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
My post at 10:36 which I stated I went long, I also clearly stated that this was a short term trade. Normally I do not post short term trades because I could be out before you read the message. ... I was and still am hoping for a pop to the upside off the rate cut today. I clearly stated I would be out of this long position by thursday of this week no matter what. The only reason I posted this was because it is so rare for me to actually go long these days that I could help wanting too. Again It should only be a few dollars and in hte end it will no doupt be a good opportunity to go short. I now that when we were above $300 I thought we would go to $310 and we did not. I lost money on that trade and the way gold closed today this one is looking no better. I guess the only way to make money right now in Gold is on the short side for me.

I still hope for the day, just like each and every one of you, that Gold soars like an Eagle someday....someday.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:10
Auric (XAU Up) ID#257312:^xau&d=1d

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:07
Gollum (And, of course, the glass WAS half full) ID#35571:
It's kind of bothersome that gold/silver didn't react all that much to the rate cut announcement. An initital slight move up which faded rather quickly...

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:07
EJ (Y2K and the bottom line for technology capital spending in 1999) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
RESEARCH ALERT - HP earnings threat

NEW YORK, Nov 17 ( Reuters ) - Hewlett-Packard Co. ( NYSE:HWP - news ) earnings momentum could rebound after the current quarter, but H-P faces the threat of a slowdown in computer spending later in 1999 as companies gird their existing computer systems for the Year 2000 datechange, Merrill Lynch said on Tuesday.

( snip )

``H-P could turn into a nice earnings momentum story'' after the fiscal first quarter ending in January 1999, he said. ``Unfortunately, earnings are back-end loaded and users could freeze second-half budgets due to Y2K,'' he said.

( snip ) and look at what the Y2K earnings news did the stock price...

H-P was the most actively traded stock on the New York Stock Exchange, falling 6-1/16 to 59-15/16 in mid-afternoon trade.
And the discounting for Y2K officially begins on the same day that the Fed lowered rates on apparently mixed economic news.

Looks VEEEERY bearish to me.

Time to buy some more gold and silver.


Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:03
Who Cares? (Euro don't need gold backing.) ID#242214:
The Euro only has to be slightly superior to the U.S. $.

Why work hard when you don't have to?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:03
robnoel (John Disney.....a few months back the Truth Commission said the same thing) ID#410165:
about the SADF.....

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:02
SDRer (Silverbaron re: yr 13:24) ID#286249:

THANK YOU! ( I owe you one--or two or three...{:- ) )

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:01
Who Cares? (The goal, remember, focus on the GOAL...) ID#242214:
and the goal of the Federal Reserve is.... achieve a stable
situtation where net outflow due to interest costs = net real
growth in goods and services.

I was right. Man, I *knew* it. That's what Greenspan is shooting
for. A sustained, real return on stocks of 1-2% ( well under the average
growth rate ) and a sustained, real return on bonds of under 5%.

They can keep this puppy going until next summer, and perhaps even
past that barring a Y2K panic.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 15:00
SDRer (Alberich, re: Edelson) ID#286249:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Very difficult to accept that Community law YEARS in the making, and finally passed in 1996, would be tossed aside in 1998, 45 DAYS before the Euro arrives?

Community legislation in force--Legal act [ 10.30.30 - Economic and monetary union ] 396R2223
Council Regulation ( EC ) No 2223/96 of 25 June 1996 on the European system of national and regional accounts in the Community
Official journal NO. L 310 , 30/11/1996 P. 0001 - 0469
Amended by 398R0448 ( OJ L 058 27.02.98 p.1 )

7.20. Definition: Financial assets ( AF. ) are economic assets, comprising means of payment, financial claims and economic assets which are close to financial claims in nature.
7.21. Means of payment consist of monetary gold,...

AND gold was FIRST mention! Do not believe Mr. Edelson's sources serve
him well.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:49
Cyclist (NEM) ID#339274:
FWIW sold and went short at 22 3/16

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:47
NTEOTWAWKI (@John Disney - Hoax, perpretrated by the same folks as the) ID#389387:
Jewish doctors invented AIDS to target another minority hoax.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:43
Gold Dancer (While I am on this subject.....) ID#377196:
Copyright © 1998 Gold Dancer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
let me say that when I predicted that DROOY would go to $15 by Jan
I had assumed that the short position was real and could not last for
long. Now I can see that this is not true. That these shorts are going
to be let out of their positions or at least most of them are.

You can see as well as I where DROOY is=$3!!!!!!So my prdiction was
wrong in its timing. However since the gold loans will not be repaid
in gold but currency this means that the central banks are going to end
up short a lot of gold come next year. And gold is what backs currecny.

As the central banks are forced to buy back the gold over a period of
time the price will rise more slowly and this is going to be better for
the stocks. A long steady rise over 18 months is better than a short
shot to the moon and then down.

Hence I will make another prediction: DROOY $25 by Jan of 2000.


Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:40
Auric (DJIA) ID#257312:^DJI&d=1d

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:34
Cyclist (looking for the ceiling) ID#339274:
FWIW top of this move 77.6/.8 break below 76 is a clear sell

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:33
Gold Dancer (Polarbear) ID#377196:
Copyright © 1998 Gold Dancer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A true short positions of 14,000 tons of gold is an untenable situation. Therefore I conclude that since the price of gold refuses to
rise that this short position is not a true position.

So far there is ample information that the gold shorts are not having
to return gold to the central banks but are paying off in currency.
WHAT currency we do not know. LTMC was let out of their gold contracts
and according to Murphy another fund was able to repay in currency.

My information is that the gold loans were set up allowing them
to be paid back in a hard curency. So the question is which curency?
Maybe it is the Euro. I don't know why I came up with this but the
hugh short position and gold not $600 already didn't make sense. What
does make sense is that the central banks get currency and then they
buy back the gold in an orderly manner. That way the price does not go
thru the roof in 2 weeks but takes 2 years to rise because the central
banks control the rate of returning gold.

The gold buy backs will only begin after the first of the year.
There is , I am sure, a secondary short position, which is much smaller,
which will be forced to cover anytime the price begins to rise. But
not 14,000 tonns!!!!!! No way is this true!!!! Most of the 14,000 will
be covered in currency. My guess Euro's and dollars.

I, however, do leave open the possibility that there are some players out there who are planning on making money by trying to get
the shorts to cover but they will need the force behind them and
this looks to begin after the New Year.

Next year is going to be far more interesting than 98 was.


Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:32
Cyclist (NEM) ID#339274:
FWIW went long 22 1/8

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:30
Fijian gold mine recommends ignoring Durban Roodepoort Deep's offer

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:27

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:23
RIGHT ON Bro.....

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:21
Delphi (Dow) ID#258142:
up 100+ in two minutes. There is a rate cut

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:20
OVER 78 ON THE WAY TO 93!!!!!

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:18

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:10
POLARBEAR (market could have a shortfall of up to 14 000 tons of gold) ID#183109:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:10
ALBERICH (Larry Edelson, who writes in Martin Weiss' Safe Money Report...) ID#212197:
Copyright © 1998 ALBERICH/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
says the following ( most recent issue, p.8 ) , which is exactly the opposite of what was said recently in USAGOLD and other commentaries:

According to my inside sources in Europe, the new European Central Bank ( ECB ) has unofficially declassified gold as a reserve asset. Bottom line: Without official reserve status, it would be much easier for the ECB to sell gold in the open market. In the worst case, gold could drop through near-term support, fall like a rock and then test major long-term support at $190 to $200.

Could it be that Larry Edelson became a victim of deliberate disinformation? His sources might play the game on the wrong side. Most likely, his inside sources are sitting in U.K. I think this above opinion from an American gold market specialist is the expression of war on gold. But it seems to me that Mr. Edelson has no bad intentions. He seems a victim.

He also predicted a while ago that silver would plunge, which didn't happen. It seems to me that he tries to spread fear among his investor clients. The more I think about this opinion the more it seems to me that there is the intention to mislead behind it.

Personally, I think the EURO will give gold a strong push north.

Any comments?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:07
Cyclist (NEM) ID#339274:
FWIW Action getting wobbly,sold NEM 22 not bad

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:07
Delphi (Dow) ID#258142:
goes vertical down. No rate cut?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 14:06
DOW DOWN 200 PTS!!! XAU SOARS PAST 80!!!! Heh...heh...heh!
The prophet has spoken!! CAVEAT!!!!!! This post is for recreational purposes ONLY and bears no semblance of reality.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 13:58
Cyclist (NEM) ID#339274:
FWIW little rally : )

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 13:53
John Disney (Ethno-Blaster ..) ID#24135:
To All ..
I have noticed no comment whatsoever from the Jewish
members on this forum on the Israeli Ethnic Biological
weapon .. does anyone know anything Is this maybe
a hoax .. My wife is concerned that it's an Ashkenazy
device and whacks Sephardics as well as non Jews.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 13:46
Cyclist (JEW) ID#339274:
Go with NEM

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 13:43
JEW (Cyclist) ID#25295:
which is right, NEM +3/8 pog -1.00

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 13:42
ORCA (F* and US Fed Rate Reductions...) ID#231337:
Copyright © 1998 ORCA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
F* .... I agree with you. The US Administration is increasingly creating a box out of which there are fewer and fewer exits possible. The import/export ratios are horrendous while the rest of the world increases its dependency to sell to the US; corp. profits are stagnant; foreign policy is haphazard at best; the move to alternate currencies is increasing ( EURO and potentially an Asian currency ) ; etc.. etc.

How is this to be resolved? It won't be in the short term but there will be some events that will essentially force the retrenchment of the US into its more comfortable isolationist position. Then standing alone, the rest of the world and world alliances will re-calibrate their relationship and position to the US without the massive interference from the US as we are seeing now.

That will mean many things... new and different military alliances, and amongst other things, a new monetary order. ANOTHER has a perspective on what will make this happen. It's a valid perspective, but things will get more complicated than even he/she envisages. Will GOLD play a role. There is no doubt and its bigger than anyone can foresee. That's why the ever increasing and desperate effort to manage it into 'their box'.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 13:40
Cyclist (XAU) ID#339274:
FWIW time and price have resolved,time to rise

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 13:24
Silverbaron (SDRer) ID#288466:
A scatter plot of your data ( where there are both members present ) sdr:plat & euro:gold doesn't look like there is a very good correlation between the two.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 13:20
kiwi (JTF....not gold) ID#194311:
Copyright © 1998 kiwi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
What I know about Maxwell's equations in the regular PDE form is that Maxwell himself never wrote them like that, but the essence of them was contained in some models ( mathematical ) which he had built up by initially imagining space to be a lattice of tiny meshing gearwheels. I would really like to see what his thinking was here, as it has parallels with some recent theories of space being made up of entirely Planck length scale vortices.
Do you know where I can get copies of these Whittaker paper's, these are little too old for our library? I have a pet project going on in formulations of a pair of scalar potential functions and it's equivalence to a vector potential function, as you might see at geometric algebra site.
I'm also curious to know more about the Abrahamov-Bohm effect and I don't really understand this hidden variable question without seeing the equations.
Perhaps we should take this off this board, you could email me at

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 13:05
SDRer () ID#93127:
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 17 Nov 1998 ) : 175.462 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 17 Nov 1998 ) : 294.600 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 17 Nov 1998 ) : 175.173 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 17 Nov 1998 ) : 293.800 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 17 Nov 1998 ) : 2.9482 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 17 Nov 1998 ) : 4.9500 US Dollars

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 13:03
SDRer (oh for heaven's sake...) ID#93127:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Early this morning the model asked me to define the relationship between two disparate figures. As 'it' doesn't understand, I haven't a clue!, it was necessary to scrounge around and see what it saw.
There superficially appears to be a 'relationship'.
Now, one must ask: could there be another 3P relationship acting as a aligning frame?

SDR plat v Euro gold

10/1/98| 253.95 | 252.311| 1.6390
10/2/98| 251.08 | 251.248| 0.1680
10/3/98| 000.00 | 252.112-No data.
10/4/98| 000.00 | 252.112-No data.
10/5/98| 244.21 | 248.338|-4.1280
10/6/98| 243.84 | 246.133|-2.2930
10/7/98| 250.48 | 245.746| 4.7340
10/8/98| 244.68 | 245.922|-1.2420
10/9/98| 243.71 | 246.477|-2.7670
11/1/98| 000.00 | 246.105 No data
11/2/98| 240.04 | 246.092| -6.0520
11/3/98| 242.53 | 244.962| -2.4320
11/4/98| 247.48 | 246.474| 1.0060
11/5/98| 247.07 | 247.057| 0.0130
11/6/98| 243.67 | 248.498|-4.8280
11/7/98| 000.00 | 249.83
11/8/98| 000.00 | 249.744
11/9/98| 242.68 | 250.043|-7.3630
11/10/98|243.35 |251.007 |-7.6570
11/11/98|000.00 |251.347
11/12/98| 253.53| 254.031|-0.5010
11/13/98|251.04 | 254.611| -3.5710

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 12:50
sharefin (NEW COMET!! Incoming from Pegasi: Christmas Comet) ID#284255:

Motion picture here.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 12:47
Cyclist (NEM) ID#339274:
FWIW covered and went long 21 5/8

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 12:33
Mooney* (Silver - Just a short-term Caution) ID#350194:
Yesterday's March Silver close was BELOW the bottom of a line connecting all the previous lower closing prices since the minor uptrend on the charts began in mid-Oct. You can see this yourself at:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 12:32
farfel (DEJ...Actually, either higher, lower, or same rates....) ID#341227:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...will be worse for general equities than gold at this point.

If the rates are lowered, it indicates government desperation and will certainly bring about sectoral inflation in the economy, specifically those sectors that are already in bubble mode, such as regional real estate and various services. Any sectoral inflation is bad for stocks and bonds while benefiting gold.

If the rates are raised, the bubble collapses for both general equities and bonds. With both assets falling, then gold is the only flight to safety.

If rates stay the same, then it represents a major disappointment for equities and bonds, both having already factored in a rate cut. The bottom falls out and again there is nowhere to turn but gold.

Of course, Greenspan, Rubin, and their friendly band of CB's will probably do whatever they can to suppress gold under any of the preceding scenarios. However, it seems we are reaching a point where the past techniques of suppression are proving increasingly ineffective.

Essentially, Greenspan and Rubin are certainly between a rock and hard place now. They have painted themselves into a corner.

That is why I honestly believe that global stagflation ( rather than pure deflation ) is the most likely future economic scenario.



Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 12:29
sam (@ALBERICH re Butler) ID#28882:

There was some discussion on Butler's piece yesterday afternoon; Mr. Butler himself showed up to clarify a couple of things.

My opinion is that his short nubers are on the high side; will clarify with a post sometime later on in the day - right now I have to work to meet my margin calls.



Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 12:27
sharefin (Montana UFO Sighting Update - The Gray,  It's Still There!) ID#284255:


NASA's LeonidsLive! Real Player Video Steam.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 12:23
Cyclist (NEM) ID#339274:
FWIW went short 21 13/16

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 12:22
ALBERICH (Ted Butler's Essay on silver is Worth to Read) ID#212197:
He says, among other very bullish things about silver, the total of shorts on COMEX is about one billion ounces. Who can confirm that?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 12:14
DEJ (Mapleman: Can't share your optimism.) ID#269191:
All news is bad for gold. Accordingly, if the Fed lowers rates, this
will be interpreted as bad for gold because lower rates are good for
stocks. If the Fed does nothing, this will be interpreted as bad for
gold because gold needs lower rates. Either way, we loose. Gold
is down now and after the Fed makes its announcement, the decline
will accelerate. My guess is at least down $2 for the day.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 12:13
Cyclist (NEM) ID#339274:
FWIW sold 21 13/16

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 12:02
mapleman (GOLD SURGE) ID#333264:


Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 11:59
sharefin (Y2K May Affect Billions Of Welfare Dollars ) ID#284255:
The GAO analyzed Year 2000 readiness in several systems, including Medicaid; Temporary Assistance for Needy Families ( TANF ) ; Women, Infants and Children ( WIC ) ; food stamps; child support enforcement; child care; and child welfare programs.

The GAO enumerated several potential problems that could wind up separating beneficiaries from billions of dollars, including: new recipients could not be added to the recipient file; eligibility for new applicants could not be determined; recipients could be denied benefits; payments could be underpaid or overpaid; and payments could be delayed.

The GAO also reported that approximately one-third of state systems for federal welfare programs are Year 2000-compliant so far. The area scoring the lowest in terms of total computer systems made ready is the Medicaid group with 16 percent of its total systems currently compliant. Half of the total amount of all state-run systems for federal welfare programs have been assessed for potential Year 2000 problems, the GAO added.
This one strikes closer to home.
And aren't they changing to electronic payments on?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 11:54
James (EJ@CNN poll--assasinate leaders. What would you expect from a bunch of) ID#252150:
mushrooms who think that WWF is the real thing?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 11:48
lady_bug (Glenn: ....I went long today........) ID#320202:
could you please tell me on what analyses, theory your opinion is based,? I remember a former post of yours ( oct.1 ) where you hoped and said , we should see POG at $ 310.00, and you will short it above $315.00 cause we're back down after this, ( your words ) so you don't believe POG will go that high, in what? short term? 3 month , 6 month?
your opinion is greatly appreciated
Thank you

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 11:41
Gollum (To cut or not to cut, that is the question) ID#43185:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It's too close to call, but if it comes down to a draw, I would have to believe the bias would be toward a cut.

Suppose they cut and it's the wrong thing to do. The economy would take off a little too strongly and they would have to eventually deal with inflation problems.

Suppose they don't cut and that turns out to be the wrong thing to do. The economy would spiral on down into recession and they would have to eventually deal with deflationary problems which would be by far the hairier animal to deal with.

So if they are not sure, I would think they would go the less problematical route.

This means if they don't cut, they need a fairly good reason for doing so.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 11:38
2BR02B? () ID#266105:

The action affects the rating of Japanese
government bonds ( JGBs ) , which make up
the lion's share of the world's
second-largest debt market. Because the
action lowers Japan's country ceiling, a
host of Japanese companies and
organisations also saw their credit rating

No entity can have a higher rating than its

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 11:33
Cyclist (XAU ) ID#339274:
FWIW 77.60 resistance

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 11:32
tolerant1 (gwyz, Namaste' dig it...gulps and puffs to Ya and the Lady...) ID#31868:
call me later.....................3 or 4...yup...uh huh...

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 11:30
tolerant1 (BillIinOregon, Namaste' gulps and puffs to you and the Lady...from the Island that is Long...) ID#31868:
our finest meadows grieve as they want for your footsteps to press the grass and leave impressions of your Honor of you an ounce of Gold shall be given to a to the Village...

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 11:29
Gollum (Sell on the rumor, buy on the news) ID#43185:
If looking at the glass half full is correct, gold has taken a dip from sell on the rumor thinking plus uncertainty as to what the Fed will do, but will rally as soon as the FOMC makes it's announcement.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 11:27
Lurker 777 (Got a Flu shot then the Flu.) ID#320226:
Glenn: Bought some more Dec 1999 290 Puts for $650 ea. this morning. Paid $700 yesterday. Hmmm I guess the floor is saying higher gold prices! I believe we will make a run for $275 one more time and I am still looking for $285 spot within two weeks.

Mooney: never mind! nuff said, yes!

RJ: Silver?

LBG: ¼ point cut!

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 11:17
Gollum (Looking at the glass half full) ID#43185:
If there is a rate cut, it will be bad for the dollar and therefore good for the price of gold, just as it was last time.

If there is no rate cut, it will mean the Fed is still concerned about inflation which will be good for the price of gold.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 11:14
sharefin (Eldorado - I'd guess everyones front door.) ID#284255:
Sacked minister echoes fears over millennium bug
By David Hencke, Westminster Correspondent
Thursday November 12, 1998

David Clark, the former cabinet minister who was responsible for overseeing action to resolve the millennium bug, yesterday backed a highly critical report which named nine ministries and agencies and three public bodies for failing to cope with the crisis.

The millennium bug is the syndrome whereby computers fail to work properly after 2000 because they cannot recognise the double zero in the date. Computer software therefore has to be upgraded before the millennium.

Taskforce 2000, an independent monitoring body funded by private industry, says it has no confidence in figures released by the bodies to cope with the problem.

Among the worst examples are the Civil Aviation Authority and the National Air Traffic Services, of which the report says there is no information on which to base any level of confidence. The CAA - responsible for air safety - says it has 75 systems to work on and that remedial work and testing was due to be completed this July.

British Nuclear Fuels is accused of providing no basis of confidence.

The Bank of England is said to inspire low confidence. This is doubly disappointing in that the booklets the Bank has taken upon itself to produce on financial sector readiness are excellent.

The nine departments described as high risk are the department of Trade and Industry, the Foreign Office, Home Office, Environment Agency, Medicines Control Agency, NHS Estates, Ministry of Defence, the Office of National Statistics and the Northern Ireland Office.

The Medicines Control Agency is truly alarming, says the report, and has not achieved all the work it was supposed to have done.

Mr Clark - speaking publicly for the first time since Tony Blair sacked him as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster last July - said that while the Government's intention was sound, he did not think it would succeed, particularly over the recruitment of specialist staff to cope with the problem.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 11:05
2BR02B? (Janpanese downgrades, banana peels & falls from grace) ID#266105:

Of the Group of Seven nations, only Japan, Italy and Canada do not have Aaa ratings for their domestic currency debt, according to Moody's officials in Tokyo.

3 down, 4 to go. Like they say, the trend is your friend.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 11:01
yellowcab (sensing positive turn in xau--right now) ID#18355:
firm tone after morning's tepid selloff. buy em

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:56
Cyclist (break out) ID#339274:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:52
Cyclist (NEM & Bonds) ID#339274:
Bought 21 1/4 and sold 127 '18

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:50
sharefin (For those who like to crack) ID#284255:

Army on standby over bug

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:46
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
EJ -- Y2K is what will probably bring the jack-boot to your very own door.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:40
JEW (glenn) ID#25295:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:39
JEW (glen) ID#25295:
thanks, good luck.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:36
glenn (Gold) ID#376309:
I went long today looking for a move towards $300. The up move I'm looking for should happen Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday I'm out no matter what. Enjoy.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:35
2BR02B? (remember what the doorknob said, the Fed's your head) ID#266105:

The targeting of stability as a
goal is paradoxically destabilizing, Grant says.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:22
Cyclist (nem) ID#339274:
FWIW sold 21 7/16

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:18
gwyz (Bubble Dow...) ID#432130:
...I think this Bubble is going to burst if the Fed decision is no rate cut, which they just might choose to do because consumer spending has increased! ( I cant believe that one! Consumers are sheeple, I guess ) . Anyway, this Dow is technically overvalued, and something has to give.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:17
FOX-MAN (Even more important is the BULLISH PLATINUM news from theJohnson Matthey report) ID#288186:
Copyright © 1998 FOX-MAN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
New York-Nov. 17-FWN--DEMAND FOR PLATINUM IN 1998 IS expected to be 5.13 million
ounces, which would be only 40,000 below the record level of 1997, Johnson Matthey has reported.

The forecast was included in the company's Platinum 1998 Interim Review released today.

Chinese and North American demand for platinum in jewelry fabrication continues to expand at
double-digit rates, and sales of platinum investment products have been rising, said Alison Cowley,
author of the report. This will compensate for lower demand for platinum from the Japanese jewelry
sector and from the world auto industry, the company said.

Industrial demand is expected to be little changed, supported by higher consumption of platinum in
specialized chemical and electrical applications, said the company. However, demand for platinum in
autocatalysts is declining, mainly due to wider use of palladium-rich catalysts to meet new emissions
limits in the United States and Europe.

Supplies of platinum in 1998 are expected to rise by 70,000 ounces to 5.04 million ounces, with
additional output coming from mines in the United States and South Africa, said the company.

Higher productivity and better yields have contributed to a small improvement in South African PGM
( Platinum Group Metals ) output, while mines in the USA and Zimbabwe have also made modest
additions to supplies, said the Johnson Matthey report. We expect these gains to be partly offset by a
decline in Russian exports, which were suspended again in the first quarter of 1998.

Total supplies will fall short of demand by 90,000 ounces.

The suspension of Russian sales in early 1998 caused the price of platinum to surge to $429 in April.
Since, in what Johnson Matthey termed an increasingly turbulent economic climate, the price has
declined to five-year lows.

Johnson Matthey commented that the critical factors for the price of platinum over the next six months
will be the pattern of Russian sales and expectations for the economy. The company forecast a range of
$325 to $375.

Demand for platinum is forecast to remain stable in the year ahead, said Johnson Matthey.
Autocatalyst consumption is expected to decline again, but jewelry fabrication should continue to
expand; demand in the Chinese and U.S. markets shows no signs of slackening, while stock reductions
by the Japanese jewelry industry are unlikely to recur on the same scale as this year. Advanced
technology applications will continue to support industrial use of platinum.

However, the pattern of Russian sales and the market's perception of economic trends are likely to
remain the most important influences on the price, which we expect to trade between $325 and $375
over the next six months.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:17
sharefin (EJ) ID#284255:
If all we get is a financial bump
Then what you say could well be the case.
But what of these effects outside your country?
How will they grow out of this change?

But if the grid goes down for a long time
And oil stops flowing?
What of the coming effects then?
Much will not be as it was before.

The balance of the scales
Between the rich and the poor
Will be turned topsy-turvy.

The man on the land, who has a green thumb
And knows the lore of the land.
May well be richer than the mogul
Who lives his life on the 40th floor.

But then the farmer who knows little
And relies on his technology.
May be worse off than the streetwise
Who know how to eek out a living.

Of one thing be assured, change is coming.^o-o^

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:15
FOX-MAN (From FWN; Palladium demand is exceeding supply...) ID#288186:
Copyright © 1998 FOX-MAN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
New York-Nov. 17-FWN--PALLADIUM DEMAND IS EXPECTED TO reach a record 8.2 million
ounces in 1998, exceeding supplies by more than 1 million ounces, Johnson Matthey reported today.
Overall, use of the metal is expected to be up 8%.

The forecast was included in the company's Platinum 1998 Interim Review.

Consumption of palladium in autocatalysts will rise by almost one-third to 4.2 million ounces as vehicle
producers use palladium catalysts to meet new emissions standards in North America and Europe, said
the company. Demand for palladium in other industries will fall, especially in the electronics sector,
where substitution of palladium by silver and nickel is becoming significant.

However, supplies are forecast to decline slightly to 7.19 million ounces, with a fall in exports from
Russia offsetting a rise in shipments from Western mines.

The resulting deficit has been met from market stocks accumulated in earlier years by investors,
financial institutions and fabricators, said Johnson Matthey.

Delayed shipments of palladium from Russia in the first half of 1998 caused turmoil in the market, with
the price peaking at $417 in May, said the company. The resumption of sales at a steady rate in June
led to lower and less volatile prices.

Johnson Matthey said it believes that Russia's strategy will be to sell palladium at a rate which supports
a price in the $250 to $300 range. However, said the company, another disruption of supplies in the
New Year cannot be ruled out. PALLADIUM SUPPLY

After high palladium sales near the end of 1997, Russian supplies were suspended again in the first
quarter of 1998, pointed out Johnson Matthey. Export allocations were granted in April and Almaz,
which remains Russia's sole marketing agency for platinum group metals ( PGM ) , began to ship
palladium later that month.

However, there was no immediate increase in market liquidity, and we believe that the first shipments
went directly to consumers in the USA, said Johnson Matthey. Availability eventually began to
improve in late May, as more Russian metal came onto the market.

It appears that Noril'sk Nickel has been given permission to export this year's output, estimated at about
2.5 million ounces of palladium, said Johnson Matthey. Russia's central bank has also been granted an
export quota and has been selling palladium from its stocks.

Johnson Matthey forecast that Russian shipments will total 4.6 million ounces in 1998, compared to 4.8
million the previous year.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:09
BillinOregon (Good Morning All) ID#262242:
and yes,its raining here in Oregon. The dow is down gold is down, where is golden cheesehead when we need him?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:05
Cyclist (NEM ) ID#339274:
FWIW bought 21 1/8 stop 20 3/4

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:04
EJ (ravenfire re: CNN poll on legal killing of other nations' leaders) ID#45173:
Disgusting. My countrymen have forgotten the premise of their nation's moral right to exist as a free nation.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:03
Mike Stewart (Lou_Jan) ID#270253:
Gold Fields of South Africa ( GLDFY ) was a holding company that chose to distribute their assets. Gold Fields Limited ( GDFDY ) is the pure gold portion of that.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:02
Cyclist (Bonds) ID#339274:
I meant bonds instead of gold,must have it on the brain : )

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 10:00
Cyclist (Ravenfire) ID#339274:
FWIW not to reduce rates is not to increase printing money,
bullish for gold.We are in a deflationary environment.
But let the market speak they are smarter

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:57
panda (What!? Bear Stearns initiating coverage on PM stocks?) ID#30126:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:56
Mike Stewart (Technical Update) ID#270253:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Stewart/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The Toronto Mining Issue McClellan Summation Index is rising, but without conviction. This is a slight positive.

The New Lows in Toronto Mining Issues have been below the benchmark 5 or less issues per day for eight of the past ten days. The two weak days saw 8 and 9 new lows. This is a positive.

The 200 day MA for Toronto Golds is at 6349 and declining. The index was at 6748 yesterday.

The 220 day MA for gold is at 294.63 and rising. Watch this level.

The trendline for Toronto Golds ( ^TGL on Yahoo finance ) , that rises at 2% weekly from the last major low is now at 5256 this week.

The indicators are positive overall, but getting weak once again. Mental stops on individual issues are in order.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:55
ravenfire (@cyclist) ID#333126:
wouldn't bonds be in slight trouble if A. Greenspan doesn't reduce interest rates? or would the outflow of money from stocks more than compensate for that?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:54
ravenfire (how's this for a poll?) ID#333126:

50% of CNN pollers agree that the US should change its laws to allow assassination of foreign leaders...


Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:53
Cyclist (Ravenfire) ID#339274:
FWIW Just went long dec bonds 127 '15 stop '7

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:53
EJ (Eldorado) ID#45173:
USA 2000 isn't Germany 1934. Even at the height of the Depression in the 1930's, the Communist Party didn't get much play in the US, although it got more votes than at any time before or since. The institutions of democracy and capitalism are strong in the US. A better bet for a 1934 German style fix to an economic disaster is Russia.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:51
Lou_Jan (@Mike Stewart) ID#320136:
Thanks for the info! I would assume then that
GLDFY ( Gold Fields ) is not one and the same stock,

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:47
Mike Stewart (Lou_jan) ID#270253:
Gold Fields Limited is GDFDY. It moves like crazy day to day, but I like it, and own it. Quotes are hard to get. Try and go to the quotes section for yesterday's close. They will list in New York someday.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:46
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
EJ -- RE: In an economic downturn, this indebtedness will bancrupt a large population of formerly middle class and now poor voters who will be mobilized to change economic policy in their favor.

You mean like the people in Germany in the 30's changed the system in 'their favor'? HAR! I DON'T think so...

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:40
Cyclist (NEM) ID#339274:
FWIW break below 20 1/8 is a outright sell,right now on the side lines.
sensing the mood : )

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:37
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
cyclist -- Re: Cycle bottom for grains; Yupper...

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:36
Cyclist (Ravenfire) ID#339274:
FWIW bullish this week,128 is breakout point with 127 20/32 stop

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:34
EJ (@sharefin & All) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Check out my 23:53 post from last night.

There is no precident that I know of for an economic disaster leveling the inequalities in society. The mechanism that produced the inequality in the first place -- institutions that limit access to the know-how and beliefs needed to create wealth -- are amplified under economic stress. During the Great Depression in the USA, the rich became fabulously wealthy relative to the middle class and the poor; the middle class became poor and the poor became destitute. Car manufacturers, for example, came out with new super-luxury cars even as they stopped production of lower cost cars that the middle class had been able to afford before the depression. Since only the rich had any money, the economy relied on thier spending to get it going again. However, the rich were so reluctant to spend their money that it became necessary for the US government to confiscate some of it or else see the society deteriorate into a Brazil-like political-economic hierarchy.

The great societal risk we are facing today comes from the indebtedness of the middle class. This indebtedness has been created by an elite that has changed the institutional rules to promote a system of credit to sqeeze the last dollar out of the middle class consumer. In an economic downturn, this indebtedness will bankrupt a large population of formerly middle class and now poor voters who will be mobilized to change economic policy in their favor. That means policies that promote redistribution of wealth via taxation and inflation.

This is a slow process, however, taking three or four years starting in early 2000, is my guess.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:32
Cyclist (NEM and XAU) ID#339274:
FWIW end of the week 18 and 63

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:29
ravenfire (@Cyclist) ID#333126:
what's your take on T-bonds for this week?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:26
Cyclist (Today) ID#339274:
FWIW minor reversal day,closing middle of the today's trading band
for gold.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:25
tolerant1 (Nick@C, Namaste' gulps...puffs and at this very moment...between clenched teeth) ID#31868:
the crack of the worm and the crush of the seventeenth peyote button...'tis not the evaporation of air round your my friend it is the thunder of my lungs, perhaps you see the leaves grow still, the sea go calm...a Mighty Cheers to ya approaches...I am that which gave lead direction...Peace to you and your family...

Every 1 is a kulak and I am every kulak's SERVANT...

a privilege...

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:21
Cyclist (Grains,Grains) ID#339274:
FWIW This is the cycle bottom for grains.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:15
ALBERICH (@sharefin: I liked your 8:27) ID#212197:
AAfter having found some release that Madeleine, the daughter of Dracula, didn't get her thirst for IRAQI blood satisfied, Al Gore's speech about the Malaysian economy attacked my stomach like a vicious virus.

Your post had a calming effect on my tortured soul.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 09:12
EJ (The Fix is In) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
With 87 votes in and the poll closed, the Kitco Crew has determined by a margin of more than 3:1 that AG is more likely to leave rates alone than lower them. Based on the stock market's performance yesterday, ours is a minority view. Based on the results of last week's gold price poll, we're likely to be correct.

I wonder, tho, if we voted what we think Greenspan WILL do or if we voted what we think he SHOULD do. We'll find out soon enough. Let the games begin!

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 08:57
Lou_Jan (GLDFY) ID#320136:
Perhaps it is simply Gold Fields ( GLDFY ) . Excuse
my ignorance. Anyone with any opinions on this

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 08:53
Fred(@Vienna) () ID#185448:
sharefin re your last post

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 08:52
chas (Eldorado re Bearden) ID#147201:
Thanx for the comment. It reminds me of those conversations- the one way capacitor. The very thing he talked about. This should be possible today with the E equipment that's possible. Somebody just needs to turn their mind to it. I agre re market

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 08:50
Lou_Jan (I'll try again...please,) ID#320136:
anyone have the ticker for 'Gold Fields', as refered to
in the Nick Goodwin article? Is this stock Ashanti or
a different one?

TIA, Jan

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 08:49
chas (Sharefin re funky capitalism) ID#147201:
You got that right. Too many scrooges.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 08:41
FOX-MAN (FWIW; CPI numbers are in.....up .2 // core up .2) ID#288186:
Copyright © 1998 FOX-MAN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Washington-Nov. 17-FWN--DRIVEN BY INCREASES IN FOOD and energy costs, U.S. consumer
prices increased by 0.2% in October, Labor Department figures reported today.

The Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) , a key government measure of what Americans pay for goods and
services, increased from September's unrevised unchanged rate on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

Excluding the often volatile food and energy components, the core CPI rose 0.2%. In September, the
core CPI also rose an unrevised 0.2%.

Analysts surveyed by FWN were expecting the overall and core CPI to have risen 0.2%.

The energy index, which fell 1.3% in September, reversed its declines and increased by 0.9%. The
index for petroleum-based energy increased 2.4% and the index for energy services fell 0.3%. Gasoline
prices increased by 2.7%.

The increase in the energy index was the highest since September 1997, the Labor Department said.
The increase in gasoline prices was the largest since August 1997.

Larger increases in the indexes for food and beverages ( 0.5% ) and transportation ( 0.3% ) were offset by
declines in the recreation index.

October's prices for food at home increased 0.7%, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 5.7%, the
Labor Department reported.

Apparel prices increased by 0.1% in October after a 0.7% decline in the prior month, the Labor
Department said. The housing component rose 0.2% in October, following a similar increase in

Medical care costs rose 0.2% in October, and are 3.6% above prices from a year ago. Prescription drug
prices jumped 0.1%. The index for hospital and related services increased by 0.3% after being
unchanged in September, the Labor Department reported.

The Labor Department will report on the November CPI at 7:30 a.m. CST Dec. 15.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 08:38
STUDIO.R (@share'O'fin..........) ID#119358:
strange but great thoughts....your 8:27. studio.waiting in front yard with ball glove wrapped in foil. come on God!..throw da' ball!!!

studio.tinkerin' da' office to oooze.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 08:30
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
Chas -- My take on Beardens work is that he's looking for a one-way capacitorI.E., One that can induce in only one direction, thus perhaps not allowing loading of an oscillating system as one extracts energy from it.

I think it will be one last big day up on the major stock indices today.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 08:27
sharefin (Strange thoughts in an uncertain world?) ID#284255:
It seems as though many leaders around the world
Are not looking to the great USA as a role model.

What they once viewed as a society to look up to.
They now look at with disdain.

If a society was to be valued on it's monetary policy.
Then the USA would/could be viewed as the pinnacle of success.

Perhaps in these troubled times, they are looking through different coloured glasses.

Most Kitcoites have a sense of reality when it comes to the US markets.
We know they aren't founded on reality.
They are founded on a political society.
Where to have the biggest/brightest/best/
Most-est of everything at the expense of the rest of the world
Is to be considered the rule.

Perhaps as these foreign countries see how they have been duped.
They will come to reconsider their ethics and morals.
And to turn away from this relentless capitalism.

Money sucking, when one already has enough
Is not a neccessary way of life.

Now I know there is much corruption and greed in many other countries.
I am not saying that there isn't.
And I'll probably get flamed for saying what I just have.

But perhaps there is a consciousness change coming about in regards to the USA.
I am not trying to condemn the US
Rather trying to look over the fence.
Wondering what the other people are thinking in thess troubled times.

And if you think they are not troubled.
Perhaps you need to take a look outside the US.

To my mind big money is eating up
The life realities of many other countries.
It is tearing the faces off many small people.
And all in the quest for bigger profits.

To me this is capitalism at its worst.
Capitalism is not who can make the most profits at the expense of many.
It is more so a system where capital freely flows in an equitable way.

This has not been the case and perhaps some are awakening to the game that is.

I don't like the thoughts of what Y2k will bring.
But in some ways I welcome it with both hands.

It could well be the great leveler.
A compulsory return to a saner way of life.

Whispers are around that electricty will be defunct.
Not on time.

If this was to be so then all big business is history.
Oil, food, information & cyber money will cease to flow

Just think?
If they can't fix it over a 2/3 year period.
Then what chance have they
If they cant fix it in the first month?

If they cant fix it in the first month.
Then be prepared.

Really prepared.^o-o^

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 08:12
SDRer () ID#290172:

Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 17 Nov 1998 ) : 175.462 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 17 Nov 1998 ) : 294.600 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 16 Nov 1998 ) : 175.820 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 16 Nov 1998 ) : 294.850 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 17 Nov 1998 ) : 2.9482 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 17 Nov 1998 ) : 4.9500 US Dollars

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 07:59
Silverbaron (Gold Funds.....a good site) ID#288466:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 07:55
FOX-MAN (tryed=tried// Boy, sometimes my brain forgets how to spell simple words...) ID#288186:
: )

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 07:53
FOX-MAN (Hey everyone! I just got into work and tryed to page another employee. His) ID#288186:
pager gives a constant busy signal. I tryed mine and it does the same.
Is this a coincidence, or did some communication satellite get hit?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 07:53
chas (JTF re T.Bearden) ID#147201:
I had quite a few discussions with Tom back in the late 80's. I have several of his papers. I have to agree with you that the written word is difficult to comprehend. Of course, I'm not a physicist, but in conversation with Tom I could get a lot more. Where do you think he is now- in the development of his work? I started out with Tesla, but fizzled on Tom's papers.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 07:52
sharefin (SDR - JTF) ID#284255:
The Euro comments came out of a email questionaire that is circulating amongst the geeks.

What they are talking about is the data bridges between one and all and how they will function.
Seems they'll have their bugs early.
And will be an interesting interlude before the big one.

Here's the gist of it.
Please excuse the initial impression that this may be off topic for a Y2K
mail list, but my question is about the first big shock that electronic
trading systems will receive in seven weeks time. The level of readiness
there may be a precedent for things to come.

I'd like to survey the financial institutions on this mail list on their
readiness. The major European markets will switch on 4th January 1999 to be
redenominated in euro. As a result, data feeds will show a discontinuity
as of that date. Will there be turbulence because of unprepared automatic
trading systems? Or is this an easy data change that anybody that matters
is ready for?

As Julian Walmsley says, US investors holding any of these securities will
have to be ready. This is not just a new currency. Quotation and accrual
conventions are changing, equity par values may change ( important as
regards preference shares ) and there are a host of detailed issues such as
new securities numbering of French government bonds.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 07:48
Gollum (Maybe flip a coin?) ID#35571:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 07:44
Silverbaron (JTF) ID#288466:
Although I think Richard Hoagland is a pretty bright guy, he obviously has a penchant for delving into the fringe areas, and I never accept any of this stuff on face value.....For me it's more like a mind exercise, sort of like the fuzzy logic of the gold market. could the gold market be a case where the data is fudged also I think we already know the answer to that question.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 07:41
Gollum (Really, I sent the check in, honest.) ID#35571:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 07:38
POLARBEAR (follow-up RANDGOLD comment) ID#183109:


New NAV spreadsheet, hot off the keyboard.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 07:36
Copyright © 1998 POLARBEAR/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

( AS OF 30 SEP 98 )
15,000,000 RAND CASH
NAVACHAB ( 10% )
T.G.M.E. ( 75% )

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 07:33
Gollum (Rumblings from Asia) ID#35571:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 07:30
Silverbaron (XAU & XOI T/A) ID#288466:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 06:30
Gollum (Newmont 10-Q, gosh, a gold mine with positive earnings) ID#43349:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 06:28
JTF (Lunar anomalies url) ID#210282:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
SilverBaron: I don't know what to make of that, either. I am more accustomed to mainstream-type physics literature, not fringe stuff.

I think one needs to think like an intelligence officer to assimilate information from such sites. I confirm from an independent source before considering as truth. Sadly, there is no other way. Interesting that both Tom Bearden and Ed Dames were both intelligence officers, isn't it? Could be that they have been telling us only part-truths. Would not be hard if this was your profession.

Your profession, and mine has always emphasized the truth, although I have known physicists who have 'fudged' data to make the results come out right.


My predition is that interest rates remain unchanged for now. And Gold goes down. I agree with Mike Stewart that -- if gold does not go down this week with all of the bearish stuff -- that would be a very good sign indeed. We are certainly at a major turning point in gold trends.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 06:24
Donald (London morning dollar news and comment) ID#26793:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 06:20
Donald (Mayor of Moscow says the IMF is to blame for all Russian problems.) ID#26793:

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 06:11
jims (JSE ALL GOLD back to unchange...) ID#252391:
or almost after a couple percent lower opening. Suppose the volumn is very light as all eyes look to the FED. Also, I suggest that once the Fed holds unchanged on the rates down she'll go back to the previous week's low - another set of rally hopes dashed.

Key to watch is Platinum. If the world economies are preceived to be bottoming out ( hence the lack of need for rate cut ) industrial demand might pick up enough to encourage inventory building of key commodities.

I know ...that's a long shot.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 06:10
SDRer () ID#290172:
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 17 Nov 1998 ) : 175.462 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 17 Nov 1998 ) : 294.600 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 16 Nov 1998 ) : 175.820 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 16 Nov 1998 ) : 294.850 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 16 Nov 1998 ) : 3.0085 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 16 Nov 1998 ) : 5.0350 US Dollars

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 06:09
JTF (Quaternions) ID#210282:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Kiwi: I thought I might find a mathematician who knew on Kitco! My forte is applied math/experimental physics. Whittaker and Watson was not my favorite reading material.

Did you know that the second edition of Maxwell's 'Treatise on Electromagnetism' was extensively modified -- the first 9 chapters -- by Mr W.D. Niven, at Trinity College, Cambridge, around 1881?

However, these changes were probably intended by Maxwell, who apparently died suddenly. And -- they probably were simplifications that more appropriate for the analysis of Faraday's work.

By the way, have you seen any books accurately summarizing Faraday's original work?

I have a question for you. As far as I can tell, the Quaternion formulation of Hamilton translates into the vector analysis of Heaviside, which is a clearly more palatable analytic tool. And -- I have found nothing from tidbits of Michael Faraday's work that indicates that the Quaternion formulation offers any additional insight over and above Maxwell's equations as modified by Heaviside.

What I have surmised from E. T. Whittaker's two 1909 papers:

1 ) 'On an Expression of the ElectroMagnetic Field Due to Electrons by Means of Two Scalar Potential Functions', and

2 ) 'On the partial differential equations of mathematical physics',

is that the entire electromagnetic formulation of Maxwell's equations can be condensed down into two scalar functions that have a much more simple relation with charged particle motion than the displacement current, and the magnetic intensity. E.T. Whittaker -- a brilliant mathematician -- did not use quaternions for this derivation like Tom Bearden claimed, but the Heaviside formulation of Maxwell's equations.

Regardless, this is highly significant, even if most of what Tom Bearden says is nearly incomprehensible to me.

My guess is that the key problem to a major advancement in electromagnetic theory is to guess optimal formulations of the two scalar functions of Whittaker, F and G. The classical formulation of Maxwell's equations can be derived as two symmetrical second order differential equations involving F and G. This is a non-trivial matter, as there is little physical evidence, with the exception of the Abramov ( sp? ) -Bohm effect, that shows the magnetic vector potential is important to electron motion, even when the magnetic field is zero. Unfortunately this is very much like the 'hidden variable' concepts in quantum mechanics.

How do you come up with the right 'hidden variables' to describe the magnetic vector potential -- or for that matter, F and G -- when all you can measure is D and H? I think more experimentation with the Abramov ( sp ) Bohm effect is needed to resolve this matter.


Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 05:54
Silverbaron (What happens Dec 7th?) ID#290456:
The world keeps getting weirder and weirder...

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 05:45
Fred(@Vienna) () ID#185448:
For father Nick:

There's something in't,
More than my father's skill, which was the greatest
Of his profession, that his good receipt
Shall for my legacy be sanctified
By the luckiest stars in heaven: and, would your honour
But give me leave to try success, I'ld venture
The well-lost life of mine on his grace's cure
By such a day and hour.

Richard two too

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 05:32
Nick@C () ID#386245:
The bay-trees in our country are all wither'd
And meteors fright the fixed stars of heaven;
The pale-faced moon looks bloody on the earth
And lean-look'd prophets whisper fearful change.
These signs forerun the death or fall of kings.

--William Shakespeare, Richard II

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 05:21
Fred(@Vienna) () ID#185448:
Temp around 0°. Snow. Gold down. F***.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 04:36
Paul Gold (Emperor's board guilty of obstruction says DROOY) ID#21484:
Copyright © 1998 Paul Gold/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Durban Roodepoort Deep ( DRD ) said on Monday that it could only detail the terms of its proposed offer for Fijian gold mine Emperor Mines once it had been given access for a due diligence inquiry. Emperor has thus far refused such access.

DRD rejected a statement made in Australia earlier on Monday by Emperor's finance director which claimed that DRD had given no indication of whether all Emperor shareholders would be afforded an equal opportunity of participating in the offer, and that DRD was expecting these shareholders to accept the offer without knowing its value.

DRD has clearly stated - in both a letter to Emperor shareholders and a public announcement - that, should it acquire a majority holding in Emperor, all shareholders would be given the opportunity of disposing of their shares for a consideration equal to that paid for the controlling interest.

Contrary to Monday's claim by Emperor, this would give all shareholders, including the minorities, adequate protection.

To facilitate negotiations for its initial acquisition of at least 51% of Emperor and thereafter its offer for the remaining shareholdings, DRD has asked shareholders to delete a provision in the company's articles of association which bars any one shareholder from acquiring more than 20% of its shares without an upfront offer to all the Emperor shareholders to acquire their shares.

DRD said on Monday that it had been forced to communicate directly with Emperor's shareholders as certain members of the Emperor board appeared to be acting in a manner designed to frustrate DRD's attempts to move negotiations with the company forward in the normal manner.

DRD has not been given access to company operations and information which it requires to assess Emperor's current value and the potential for improvement, and thus to determine the price it is prepared to offer for the company.

DRD has also been denied timeous access to the company's shareholder register.

See DRD's open letter to Emperor shareholders at

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 04:24
jims (Markets seem to say no ease by FED) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
With the currency market weak relative to the dollar and stocks overnight retreating on GLOBEX seems there is a sentiment growing that the FED out ouf prudence will not ease. Of course this will send the market down at first, bonds higher, then the market will take the steady rates as bullish because it implies the world fiancial situation is sounder and of course the FED could always ease the next time around.

So stocks up after no easing - down if the Fed eases after a flurry.

Gold just down under any scenorio imaginable.

( DO notice that sentiment is increasing bearish on this board along with price declines . . .we have a few $200 predictions, nobody is truely bullish in the short term. Butler's silver article has been dismissed an inopertune, untimely, and clearly out of sinc with the market. - Reading: headed a little lower than a bounce back to the higher end of the range $5.05 silver, $297 gold, 79 XAU.

The trading range continues

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 03:38
Andraschkov (Auric / Gold ... That is true and it brings back to me one of my Father's ) ID#256191:
old sayings, It's only worth what someone will pay for it, no more and no less.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 03:17
Auric (Andraschkov-- What Is Holding Down Gold?) ID#257312:

Paper, in all its forms such as leasing, forward selling, derivatives etc., has Gold in a box. It seems to be very well contained between $280 and $325. As long as folks maintain present levels of confidence in paper ( i.e. dollars, EMUs, and ¥en ) , those boundries will likely hold.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 03:16
mozel (@In a world turned upside down by Fraud,) ID#153110:
Paper is heavier than Gold.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 03:04
Andraschkov (Gold) ID#256191:
I was just winding down and catching the 'Kitco gossip' when I just realized; gold has been down 300 and under for an entire year now!
Nothing seems to be able to drive the price up. Good economy, bad economy, stock market up, stock market crashes, stock market up again. Gold just kind of hovers and ripples in the sub 300 level. I ask my fellow Kitcoites, What keeps suppressing the price of gold?

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 03:00
Nick@C (@Cuervo South) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Never knew grapefruit juice could taste so damned good. Cheers, T1.
I am singin' dem ol deflation bluuuuuuues.
JD--good post on the possibilities of deflation.
There is so much excess in the price of jae ( just about everything ) that I am expecting a dramatic return to reality. I already know what will hold up best in a deflation, and I have prepared appropriately. Gold may well go to 200 or less. You will still consider it a blessing ( owning gold ) when your house and everything else you own is 1/10th its former price!!!
I have picked the last two turns in gold to the day. It has made/saved me tens of k ( nice stuff that k ) . I don't feel good about another imminent turn. Then again, I ain't Lazarus. Don't know why. I just have a lousy feeling about ALL investments. My dogs bark BEFORE an earthquake. Gonna buy my dogs some gold!!!
Crash When it is LEAST expected!!

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 02:26
mozel (@Survive As A Nation) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Power and the law are not synonymous. In truth they are frequently in opposition and irreconcilable. There is God's Law from which all equitable laws of man emerge and by which men must live if they are not to die in oppression, chaos, and despair. Divorced from God's eternal and immutable Law, established before the founding of the suns, man's power is evil no matter the noble words with which it is employed or the motives urged when enforcing it.
Men of good will, mindful therefore of the Law laid down by God, will oppose governments whose rule is by men, and, if they wish to survive as a nation they will destroy that government which attempts to adjudicate by the whim or power of venal judges. --Cicero

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 02:16
Nick@C (Wouldn't you know it) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Cloudy here this afternoon. I'll be up at 3 AM anyway hoping for a break in the clouds. C'mon Leonid--do your stuff.
ravenfire--I read the Zola on Clinton that you posted. And I thought the Kitco krowd were anti-Clinton!!
Don't quit your day job.
How's the wether over there, mate Sorry, weather
Some analysts that I respect say we are going for another ride UP soon. I am currently ambivalent. Problem with 'corrections' is that sometimes they 'correct' a lot more than anyone expects. Some of my favourites are getting CHEAP again, so I am currently sitting on my trigger finger to stop me from pulling it. That should spark some comment.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 02:00
RETIRED SOLDIER (Return to work & Kitco) ID#399147:
Next Monday I start work in a new job in Garmisch and will be able to post again!! I have really missed the action, am told I missed some postings by OLD GOLD that needed a response just add my regards to the ol'boy.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 01:42
Auric (Leonids, Derivatives) ID#257312:

Well, so far no satellites knocked out of
commission by the meteor storm. Guess we'll have to wait for December 10, when that EQ Pegasis ship lands, eh! On to derivatives-- The article referred to by Winston @ 23:35 and Leland at 01:11 is simply a must read.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 01:28
roc (ytk) ID#40799:
Copyright © 1998 roc/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
some news from the bbc regarding UKs preperation for 2000

Monday, November 16, 1998 Published at 21:14 GMT


Army and police join forces to

beat bug

The Army could be on hand to help with millennium emergencies

The Army is working with police to draw up contingency plans to deal

with a millennium bug emergency, a senior police chief has revealed.

High-level talks are under way to provide military support to police in

the event of chaos caused by computer failure in the year 2000.

The Army could provide air support and other assistance to help move

police from hot spot to hot spot if emergency services, hospitals,

transport systems and other computer-controlled networks collapse

because their equipment fails to recognise the double zero as the

year 2000 dawns.

John Evans, Chief Constable of Devon and Cornwall Police and the

Chairman of the Millennium Co-ordinating committee for the

Association of Chief Police Officers ( Acpo ) , confirmed that the Army

was involved in emergency planning as he signed the Millennium

Pledge, a promise to take action to tackle the computer bug, on

behalf of Acpo.

Mr Evans said: Discussions are going on up and down the country

with top Army officers.

From there, individual forces are

building their plans to see what

military assistance they will be able

to make use of in the event of


The talks were part of regular police

contact with the Army to discuss

contingency plans for emergency

situations, he said.

Possible military involvement in

providing police support in the year

2000 emerged earlier in November

after a leaked memo from Scottish

Secretary Donald Dewar suggested

Territorial Army soldiers could be

necessary to maintain services.

And in another move to prepare for the dawning of the new

millennium, Mr Evans said leave was being cancelled for all police

officers over the four-day extended bank holiday to ensure forces were

up to strength.

Gwynneth Flower, Managing Director of Action 2000, the company

set up by the government to encourage companies and services to

tackle the bug, said the police would not be the only ones going into


Between 40% and 50% of the UK's employees would be called in

over the bank holiday - many of them to ensure that computer

problems were solved before the start of business after the break.

Acpo said police forces were on target to make their systems Year

2000 compliant in time for the millennium.

So far £12m has been spent updating networks including force

computers, the Police National Computer and fingerprint database.

'No special plans'

The Cabinet Office played down the significance of the Army's

involvement in emergency planning for the millennium.

The discussions were part of a regular liaison between the emergency

service and the army to ensure measures were in place to deal with

any civil emergency, a spokeswoman said.

But there were no special plans for the millennium.

She said: Under normal circumstances, any possible emergency that

might arise might have some sort of contingency plan. That's normal


There are no special plans for the millennium. There are normal

plans in case anything happens.

An Army spokesman at the Ministry of Defence confirmed that the

police and army officials had begun talks.

But he said: These discussions are at an embryonic stage and no

commitment has been made by the army.

We are open to approaches and we are well placed to assist in

certain areas, he said.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 01:11
Leland (BANK DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE REPORT by Steven Williams (Thanks to Fiend)) ID#316193:
In prior articles, I mentioned that JPMorgan holds controlling
interest in the stock of the Federal Reserve Bank, and the FED
has been instrumental in making market-moving announcements
over the past few quarters -- it does not take much effort to
suggest that ulterior motive may have been at work to influence
the FED's decisions.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 01:10
James (To cut or not to cut@I think that AG will ease but if he does it won't be as good for ) ID#252150:
the mkts, short term, as most investors believe. If he cuts I think that there will be a reief rally of 200 points or so but the smart money will be selling on news. Then the mkt won't be able to count on another cut next month so I can see the dow selling off at least 5-700 points & stalling. If he does'nt cut there will probably be a pull back to 8600 but then with another cut to look fwd to I could see the Dow making new highs. I like the latter scenario as it will allow me to complete my short sales.

We will see.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 00:13
SDRer (This may be of interest---) ID#288155:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Continuity of Contracts upon the Passage to the Single Currency: Certain Legal Aspects affecting Investors
D.R.R.Dunnett, Head of Division, Legal Affairs Directorate, European Investment Bank

…Within this ferment of activity one range of issues has received less attention than it merits. Contracts involving payments in ECUs and national EC currencies over a long term are deeply affected by the onset of monetary union.

The evolution of bond prices will be affected. The real economic burden of the payment of fixed rates of interest will change and, in the case of commercial ECU obligations, the legal and commercial character of the denomination of the debt will undergo a basic modification. The present paper discusses the key legal issues affecting the revolution that is in preparation.

The phone line that serves our modems was down all day. Something has been gerryrigged so data can be acquired, but everything will be-is-late.
Sorry. Goodnight all.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 00:10
Charles Keeling (@ARAGORN III RE: YOUR 18:12) ID#344225:
Copyright © 1998 Charles Keeling/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I love your 18:12 post. I share your view. But what happens if
the EURO launch is a dismal failure?

I see the possibility of a EURO failure as 1:3. We all know that
it is extremely unusual for a country to give up ( willingly ) it's right to print it's own currency.

Then we must also take into consideration the fact that the EURO is being
launched at a time when the Y2K problem can bring it down. The possibility does exist that the EURO will have a very short life

Tomorrow----will AG do what is right for the USA, or will he do what is good for the NWO and global trade.? Personally, IMHO, the NWO is
dead, and global trade was launched on a very shaky foundation of floating exchange rates.

I suppose that this global trade/exchange rate problem will be fixed on the fly rather than stepping back and fixing the underlying problem. If this problem were left to AG alone, he would know what to do in order to make a global economy viable. But it is not left to AG. It is a political problem and it will be fixed eventually through evolution.

AG needs to stand firm on interest rates with neither an increase, nor a decrease. If this is done, we are going to see an irrational exuberance bubble get pricked.
The US equity market needs a correction of perhaps 20 -30% in order to end the reckless speculation that is occurring. This needs to happen now, before we are indeed faced with an even more serious financial complication.

IMO, AG would have held steady on the last easing except for the DERIVATIVE mess that was hanging over the head of the global economy. AG is looking for a soft landing. He is allowing the hedge funds an opportunity to unwind their positions. Many analysts
are betting that he will ease once again even in the face of a 9000 dow and irrational exuberance like we have never witnessed before. If we see an easing, following tomorrow's meeting we will also see a 10,000 DOW in January of 1999.
( Yeah I know, it's already factored into the market )


If the EURO is a huge success, and the Y2K problem is resolved without an impact on the EURO, many DOLLARS will indeed come home, and we could very well see a stagnant economy with inflation. The increase in interest rates needed to fight off inflation would tank the equity markets, and our trade imbalance would send the dollar downward. We may find ourselves unable to purchase certain goods that are no
longer made in America without paying an exorbitant price.

We are now seeing some deflation, and we like it. Yes? How long before this deflation triggers an International war? Russia has nothing to lose right now. They have seen deflation, devaluation and serious hyper inflation. Today, Russia listens to analysts who come from Argentina. MANY countries are no longer friendly to
the USA and the DOLLAR.

IMHO the deflation we are seeing now will turn around soon, as the dollar sinks to new lows and interest rates continue downward. GOLD will lift all commodities higher as more and more paper money is put into circulation creating STAGFLATION.

AG knows what he should do, but the votes will not be there. It is much easier to take the path of least resistance: AG & the FOMC will ease tomorrow.

Date: Tue Nov 17 1998 00:08
EJ (zeke) ID#45173:
You're cracking me up tonight. If you think Kitco is a bummer, you ought to check out Something you said in a post tonight reminds me of the common references to the earth as the dirtball on the newsgroup. Maybe one of us can spend some time over there and talk those guys into buying some gold.

On that note. Time for some sleep. Got to rest up for the big day tomorrow.

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