Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:56
HighRise (The Scumbag) ID#401460:


Drudge Report

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:55
mole (@chicken man re wts) ID#350145:
Copyright © 1998 mole/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the northern miner carries them and brokers can get them. some can be looked up. for instance sunshine mining has wts good until may 2001 @$1.38 strike ( symbol silvz ) . in 1987 a bunch of us made a killing on pegasus wts - they were good for 3 yrs @14.57 ( still remember-amazing ) . we paid .30 and sold out at about $5.00. big wheel turning a little wheel. the most amazing thing is that wts can be a more conservative play - if they re long term because before pegasus went up it went down from $11.00 to $6.00, but the wts barely budged because they had time and leverage value. truly a free lunch! but one has to be careful because it takes time to learn how to handicap them and short term wts can be deadly. sorry if that sounds patronizing - i just don't know your level of experience. the advice was given with good intent only.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:54
Chicken man (Winston @ good question?) ID#341297:
Think Dec calls too close to Y2k...favor the Sept calls myself....trying to stay ahead of the curve...might be to much panic by then...secret is staying one step ahead of the crowd...tough sometimes!!!

Just a thought... Chicken man...

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:51
Jack (Viceroy Resourse) ID#254288:

Claude Cormier of The Gold Bug Comment has been eyeing Viceroy, his comments can be found over at Silcon Investor's Viceroy thread.
His attention has partly todo with a the potential of an Argentine property and and exploration successes at their producing Brewery Creek Mine.
Also Canacorde been buzzing around the Argentine prospect.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:50
TYoung (Brother oris...humor is a goldbugs best friend....Brabo...) ID#370218:
Thanks again..........


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:50
HighRise (Party in Japan) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Nikkei 225

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:45
Winston (Question for Chicken Man) ID#243420:
To Chicken Man: I have some gold calls for Dec. 99. Can the counterparty
who sold me those calls ( such as a hedge fund ) simply default, leaving me with nothing? Or is there some protection against that?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:45
Mooney* (@APH@21:06and@22:09 - History Rewritten?) ID#350194:
Copyright © 1998 Mooney*/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
C'mon APH - Think Back. I KNOW you can do it. Remember now? Good. There are many here who may have only been teenagers or less at the time and so we must take care to point out that there were many probable ( and plausible ) causes for the run-up in Silver and Gold at that time in history. The Hunt portion of the equation was a large one in the Silver story but without the motivating factors behind the upsurge even the Hunts would not have been involved. For the full story to be understood one must read many volumes and do much research on the period, however a brief recap of some of the most important factors should be given to whet the appetite of neophytes to that interesting period.
1 ) There was a huge inflation taking place which was becoming obvious world-wide.
2 ) One of the main triggers of this inflation was the huge American military spending on the Vietnam War, the Cold War, the Space Race, and the resulting Government deficit spending ( printing of money ) .
3 ) OPEC's realisation of the situation ( inflation ) and subsequent quadrupling of wholesale crude oil prices ( begining in 1973-74 ) , which then lead to further inflation.
4 ) Skyrocketing interest rates. ( Due to the bankers realising that money was going to less valuable next year than this, thus their demand for higher interest payments. ) This lead to everyone realising that inflation was unstoppable and this then lead to a general paranoia that paper money was going into melt-down. Thus commodities and especially Gold and Silver were again VERY desirable. Thus supply and demand factors for the precious quickly came out of equilibrium. The surge was phenomenal and eventually became unsustainable.
5 ) At the time that the panic was reaching its height Iran decided to lay seige to the American Embassy as the Ayatollah had declared America to be the 'Great Satan'. True or not the world's focus was now on 21% interest rates, paper money inflation, commodities and Gold and Silver skyrocketing, and a few dozen Americans being held hostage about a month before the rumoured 'shoot from the hip' Reagan was to become President. American special forces were to try a rescue mission but it died in the sandstorm raging desert. People were thus also worried that if the Americans ( embassy staff and spouses ) were killed we might be looking at a nuclear war breaking out. Severe instability in the mid-east at the least and America's and Europe's oil supply being at risk.
6 ) Canadians to the rescue! Hooray! ( Captain Doolittle of the Royal Canadian Mounties reporting for duty Sir! ) Just as the crisis was at its worst, the Canadian embassy staff pulled off one of the most amazing rescues since WW2 and smuggled the majority of Americans out of Iran posing as Canadians. The further crisis was averted when the evening before Reagan was to take office the Iranians gave up the remaining Americans. They WERE scared that Reagan might drop the bomb or do other great nastiness to their country.
7 ) Crisis cooled and the soon to be 25% interest rates never happened, and thus was repeated the new-old storey - What goes up comes down - and the descent began.

Now can anyone direct me to APH's latest technical musings on Silver and Gold's probable support and resistance points?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:44
Chicken man (Obsidion @ You got one of my tail feathers!) ID#341297:
Copyright © 1998 Chicken man/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thx for being so sharp and catching that...I used the wrong number trying to make my point...point being that the first buyer to exercise are going to get one the others are not.. I see this as sort of like musical chairs...might be I'm way off base but I think I see somthing here that don't look right..big money could establish a very large position silently then squeeze..

Question to all: how come in the Sunday paper money market rates wre higher than 180 day money? Dean Witter paying 5.11% MM----4.85% 6 mo.
Is this saying money is tight?

Just a thought..Chicken man..

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:42
George (Maybe) ID#433172:
Looks like the pig will fly again tommorrow...might not make any difference to Gold. I'm begining to wonder just what tie in to the stock market gold has, maybe not a profound one?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:42
Oak (mole) ID#242232:
Copyright © 1998 Oak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All I use at the moment to dig around is MSN investor & clearstation.
I've got a few 100 gold links & have been to most of the company web
sites. I listen here, then check fundamentals ( LOL, there usually aren't
any! ) . Mainly I check to see if profitable or close to being profitable.
I look at volumne, some technical charts. I started out only playing
the big guys, made & lost money on BMG, HM, ECO, & RYO. 6 months ago
I wouldn't have dared invest in anything with less then $50,000,000 cap.
Either I'm getting more daring or more stupid, not sure which, but I've
moved to what I consider to be some risker situations. Any advice from
anyone is appreciated as long as they can point me somewhere to verify
what they say. I was advised early on to be wary of pump & dumpers.
I checked out the newsletter you mentioned, haven't subscribed yet. But
probably will if you think its worth it.
Off to bed now, will catch up in the morning before work.
Thanks again mole!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:41
EJ (oris) ID#45173:
No, but you might get a bit on the Jews faking the moon landing.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:40
Nick@C (thanx crazytimes(good handle, mate) ) ID#386245:
What did Singapore know on FRIDAY that we don't

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:33
oris (Reify, I am good person...) ID#238422:
Copyright © 1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Here is a good old Jewish anecdote from Soviet Russia,
don't know if you ever heard it...

Rabinovich got news that sourcream, which was in short
supply many months, was finally dumped by the Soviet
power into one the stores.
So, Rabinovich rushed into the store to buy some sourcream...
The first thing he sees inside the store is a long line
of Russians waiting to buy sourcream, and then he sees
a big poster on the wall...NO SOURCREAM FOR JEWS.
Rabinovich got real angry, grabbed director of the store,
Abramovich, whom he knew for many years, and shouted
at him: Abramovich, you are Jewish yourself, how
can you refuse to sell sourcream to Jews?!?...

Abramovich quitly said...Listen, you really
think I would sell this rotten sourcream to the Jews?..


I hope this anecdote will not trigger angry reaction from
gold loving Kitco brothers, which could result in 3 days
discussion on how the Jews conspire to feed the American
people with bad sourcream....If it happens, I swear
I will never eat sourcream again...

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:28
EJ (Did I read that right?) ID#45173:
is the USD @ 113.40 yen? Seems like yesterday everyone was fretting that by now the we'd see the yen at 160.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:25
Chicken man (mole @ prices?) ID#341297:
where do you get prices on warrants?

Thx--Chicken man..

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:24
silverrain (Chickenman) ID#289350:
Jerry Garcia and the Greatful Dead-I don't know but I've told it's just as hard with the weight of lead

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:24
Obsidian (Chickenman: If gold jumped $100 they wouldn't be out of the money.) ID#237299:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:22
RAN__A (SOS as in disgusted again. Early nights- Globex indexes down, bonds) ID#411140:
down, dollar down, & with these fundamentals what should the PMs be doing that once again they are not? Will go to bed and see if it changes by morning, by mon. evening, friday close, october close, year close, end of

June option expiry. Hangin with hope but prefer profit.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:22
jumpstart (merill lynch) ID#254239:
when did they become bullish on gold last I heard they were still in the company of Ma and Pa and baby bear.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:21
Monkee Person (@pardon the double-spaceing. the AFR did it.) ID#350199:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:19
Monkee Person (@Camdessus - ) ID#350199:
Copyright © 1998 Monkee Person/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
This guy is much more than just dangerous! Seeing the opportunity, they wanna' move right into CONTROL. Just one of the hazards of that organization's very existence.

Global financial catastrophe

possible, says IMF chief

International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) managing

director Michel Camdessus said today that a global

financial catastrophe could be on the cards if world

credit dries up and that the IMF was considering

improving access to money for countries in


Speaking to France's Europe 1 radio station, the

IMF chief said such a catastrophe isn't excluded

but can be avoided.

Nevertheless, Camdessus said IMF forecasts of

growth next year of slightly above two percent

for the world and 2.5 per cent for Europe were

being maintained.

But, he added, the recent Federal Reserve-led

rescue of the US hedge fund Long Term Capital

Management had been an extremely hard blow for

financial institutions.

This case creates a risk of diminished private

financing in all the emerging countries, including

Brazil, he said.

If credit is interrupted until the beginning of next

year, something will have to be done to find

public capital, he said.

He added: We're in a liquidity crisis and the hopes

of seeing a 1999 better than 1998 are crumbling,

unless the international community gives itself the

means to step in in place of the banks.

The IMF's current resources allow it in times of

crisis to put forward around $US110 billion ( $A172.9

billion ) , he said. To respond to the demands, it

would be necessary to probably at least double

that sum.

Two options presented themselves, he said: either

a dependency on national budgets and thus the

taxpayers, or the IMF's reserve fund, the Special

Drawing Rights, put up by industrialised nations.

Camdessus added the IMF was presently looking at

a new issue of Special Drawing Rights ( SDR ) to

head off the global credit crisis.

Camdessus said under the idea, the industrialised

countries would put surplus central bank reserves

at the Fund's disposal so it could lend them to

countries in difficulty.

Recourse to the SDR could be topped up with

central bank reserves, Camdessus suggested, then

lent out to countries in dire need which would in

return promise to get their economies in shape.

The IMF's board was likely to make a decision on

the idea in the coming month, Camdessus said.


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:15
Jack (Sojourn) ID#254288:

Try and find search field. Put in full or part name under organization.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:12
mole (@Oak re stock) ID#350145:
Copyright © 1998 mole/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Oak, i don't follow those. TVX is an established major/junior. probably a normal gold proxy. The last two i know nothing of. i have a phantom memory that golden star was hooked up in asia somewhere, but that could sure be wrong. where do you get your info? i would recommend your subscribing to the northern miner and stockwatch. the northern minor gives you the news and stockwatch provides the research. if you are going to invest you really need good info. those three may be fine, although the last one sure seemed quiet, but that is not necessarily bad. i have pretty good resource info and i think there may be better plays.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:12
crazytimes (Nick@C) ID#344326:
Singapore up 9% was Friday. I've done that myself alot of times. You need to look at the time on Yahoo World Markets.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:10
Chicken man (The Hatt @ Options) ID#341297:
Copyright © 1998 Chicken man/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Who would exercise out of the money options? IMHO alot of people!!!
Check out the open interest in both the futures and the options pit...Thur # are futures-183,059 -4,120 ( need new buyers if we are going to rally ) and the options #is 329,918 calls and 151,924 puts....when gold starts to go on the bull run to stairdom the squeeze will start in the gold call options can't trade more call options than you have futures contracts without something happening....if... just if... gold jumped up 100.00 ..those 300 calls Przytula-A bought for next year would look good....if the real thing ( ole yellar itself ) scarce,the easiest way to obtain it would be to take delivery on futures contract...ever buyer has the right to demand buy calls for next year ,exercise the calls,receive a futures contract,then demand your gold!!! and at a good price!!!....but there is a problem....not everybody can do this...some call buyers are going to be out of luck!!! those #'s ...twice as many call buyers as there are the first to exercise their calls are going to receive their futures contract....and the rest ...well tough!
So back to your question as to who would do this?... well.. I'm going to be ONE!...don't think there will be any sellers on this website!

Przytula_A ..Put a pencil to the $ value of contract traded ( price times # units ( oz,$,bu,barrels etc. ) ... tbond contract worth 3 times gold contract...costs the same but...more LEVERAGE..tee hee!

Close with a quote... anybody Greatful enough to tell me the author?

I don't know, but I've been told
A man can't run with a pocket full of gold

Just a long thought...Chicken man..

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:06
Nick@C () ID#386245:
Nikkei up strongly. Singapore up 9%+. Wonder what they know that we don't

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:05
EB (Sheller re...........Bryant Park Bum....and limits) ID#187109:
He must be one of APH's old crients......... ( ugh ) ....

It has been my understanding that the front month ( futures ) has NO limit in the gold market. Which is true with many commodities, no?

.....oh well........not likely to happen any time'll happen the same time the Padres win a World Series.......................... ( damn padres ) ..........

go golf ( ing ) ........

away...back to the tube

Éßhohum.....another run

savage - how 'bout that OJ run...........missed it...............more oh well........

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:00
Nick@C (G'day ArmGold) ID#386245:
I was being a bit facetious about Merrill Lynch. They have been correct to be bearish on gold for a long while. They have also made some amazing boners.

Does anyone have that Merrill prediction on gold a couple of years back

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:56
Roebear (Forex trade 1.5 trillion per day, 87% US dollars) ID#412172:
But the rate of growth is slowing. Any comments from currency astute kitcoites? I'll read'em in the rapidly approaching AM, goodnight all.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:52
ArmGold (Nick about Merrill Lync) ID#247428:
Copyright © 1998 ArmGold/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

You stated that Merrill being bullish on gold scares you. I think it should calm you. Think of all the people Merrill is going invest in gold. Think of all those people who look to Merril for advice on capital investment and Merrill says GOLD. I used to be contracted by Merrill for computer stuff ( hvac ) I have seen the data centers. Huge amounts of clint lists up the wazoo. Think of all the capital flowing in. Take the Dow for instance all the bullish talk about the Dow reaching 9300 and it did. Now all the bulish talk about gold reaching ? and it will get there.

anyway it's my 2cents worth

Kind Regards

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:37
skinny (Sojourn) ID#287114:
My ol pappy said... one of the best ways to lose money is to have a short memory.
China is communist,,,stay clear,,,Dig out some history books.
British Columbia Canada is also Communist.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:37
Nick@C (Buy the rumour, sell the news) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The old saw works once again. Many gold bugs down here have been buying Resolute ( RSG ) in anticipation of the vote by Preston Resources to purchase RSG's Bulong nickel mine. A couple of you have asked me this past week about what a positive vote would mean. I mentioned that the news was already factored into the price and to be very careful.

Well today, after the positve vote, RSG's shares are down 4.29%.
Today there was a very nice article in the AFR about gold being good stuff ( Fear factor could lead to a gold rush ) . All this good news about gold bothers me. I make a living as a contrarian. Merrill Lynch is now bullish on gold. Andy Smith is now bullish on gold.

I didn't answer Mike's question about the bottom. Actually, I was asleep. I thought the bottom was definitely in, but am now not so sure. I respect Dabchick's and glenn's views. Both have mentioned the possibility of 225. I think that is much too low, and I hate to think of the economic conditions that would bring us that price. Then again, I never thought we would get to 278.50 either. The POG is going to be whatever the 'Holy Triumvirate' want it to be. That scares me.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:33
Oak (thanks again mole. you have an opinion on tvx,gsr & laorf?) ID#242232:
I just bought tvx & gsr again *grin*, can't seem to stay out. Have an
order in to buy laorf in the morning. Laorf had some good test results.
And I liked what I heard here about tvx & gsr. Plus, though I guess
it doesn't count for much, they are both under book. Guess I'm to used
to using the book value/share in the regular market to let go. LOL.
Thanks in advance.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:29
JP (Reify----I need your advice) ID#253153:
I understand that you are based in Israel. I'll be in Jerusalem on Nov 5 staying at king David hotel. How far is Heifa from Jerusalem ? Also, how is the weather in Israel in early Nov ?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:29
Sojourn (Anyone know anything about a company called Pan Asia Mining) ID#28961:

I believe it has gold, copper, and diamond assets in China

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:29
tricky (Dollar tanking tonight.) ID#304282:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:18
Reify (ORIS, you're either) ID#413109:
a good person, or you only see the good in others?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:27
oris ( Reify, why did Mike do it? ) ID#242258:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:15
3-cubed (FUNDS) ID#344239:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:15
jims (APH / and the gold survey) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
APH enjoyed your recountance of the '79 run up in gold and silver. I remember of friend of mine who had silver long at $10 per oz. His broker called him and told him that the company was advising everybody to liquidate their longs. He did and of course missed out on a small fortune. The silver market just went limit up day after day. The top was in for gold I remeber when Public radio mentioned it had surpassed $800 - then it ws down like a rock every day.

I think the gold hit bottom survey was great. 4 to 1 that it has. Ought to be a question eery week. If gold takes out 296 on a weekely close I bet the ratio will go to a more even number. We are all ( or mostly all ) too influenced by the direction of the last tick.

Gold is off 60 cents in Asian trading not loking too robust at $299.40.

Looking at a chart of the DOW and that off XAU rather think the DOW chart looks much better. ABout ready to cast off how I think the markets should reflect the fundlementals and go strictly with the way they are whether that seem right or wrong.

What got into CRK - slide to 3 and change and jumps 32% in one day - is there more or was that a reflex rally. Again forget what should be and go with what is. But what was the reason for it to have gone to 3 in the first place.?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:12
Roebear (Mike Sheller) ID#412172:
Thanks for the post, BTW, I made note of your CRK post the other day but lost it under a pile of charts. Drat, that was a nice candle! Sometimes charting doesn't pay, not when you lose a great MS post under them!!!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:12
EJ (just a tiny bit of deflation in Japan... ) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Japan Oct 1st 10-day domestic WPI down

TOKYO, Oct 19 ( Reuters ) - Japan's domestic wholesale price
index ( WPI ) fell 1.6 percent in the first 10 days of October
from the same period a year earlier, the Bank of Japan said on

The following is a breakdown of WPI for the first 10 days of
year-on-year change from previous
10-day period
Overall -1.5 -0.4
Domestic -1.6 0.0
Exports +1.1 -2.1
Imports -3.9 -1.5

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:10
Nick@C (APH) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I too remember those hairy, scary days of 79/80. My goldbuggery dates from those days. I sold an apartment I owned in California. I was then living in Papua New Guinea and had very poor communications with the US. It took me 3 days to get through on the phone to tell my business manager what to do with the money ( $83,000 ) . I had just finished reading a Harry Browne book, so I told him Buy gold bullion with the lot. Gold was then @200/oz. You could not wipe the smile off my face for the next few months. I would like to tell you I sold at $850, but I cannot tell a lie ( didn't one of your prezzies say that ) . I watched it go up, and I watched it go down. Still doubled my money--but in hindsight, if I had known what a stop-loss was, I would've gotten out for at least $600. I remember at the height of the boom, everyone was talking about $1000, $3000 gold etc. You would be INSANE to sell now!!! I learned a lot from that experience. Now I only make mistakes on every other trade!!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:10
oris (Mike Sheller) ID#242258:
Brother Mike, we'll drink together, even if no
trees are available...It is even better if trees
are not there, because we can watch the stars...
like in this old English anecdote:

Why Robin Hood can see much better at night than
at day?..Because at day the trees in the woods interfere
with his vision...and at night he does not see these trees...

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:09
APH (kitkat) ID#255226:
Copyright © 1998 APH/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The limits today are $75 up and down for gold and $1.50 for silver. What caused the rapid run up? Greed I guess, the gold story was plastered across the newspapers along with the story of the Hunt brothers. The Hunts were trying to corner the silver market and prices were rising until the goverment decided to break them. They forced the margins so high the Hunts couldn't meet the calls. They had to unload millions of oz of silver, the market cracked. Unlike Vegas dealers brokers sell them selves to the client. The client is puting their faith in the broker and invests with him or her and a relationship of sorts is born. Unless the client is a real jerk its disappointing not to fulfill the clients goals but you learn to live with it but you don't become numb to it.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:09
EJ (NY Fed McDonough urges attention to Y2K problems) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sunday October 18, 9:15 pm Eastern Time

NEW YORK, Oct 18 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
President William McDonough on Sunday urged the world's financial
community to address computer problems related to the Year 2000, also
known as the Millennium Bug or ``Y2K.''

``I do not think it would be possible to overstate the importance of the
Year 2000 problem as an issue for financial markets,'' McDonough told
the Regional Y2K Meeting for Financial Regulators in the Asia/Pacific Region.

McDonough's speech delivered in Sydney, Australia, was also available in New York.

``The Year 200 problem is an issue for every country, firm, organization, government agency, bank and piece of
critical infrastructure in the world,'' McDonough stressed.

The millennium bug could wreak havoc on information systems or global financial transactions after the century
changes if old software programs are unable to correctly process two-digit year references in dates after December 31,
1999. When the year 2000 arrives, systems could mistakenly interpret the ``00'' in the year field as 1900 -- causing
them to crash or corrupt data.

McDonough also stressed the importance of cooperation and coordination, as well as information sharing and
disclosure, as key steps to address the Y2K problem.

``Of the many different elements of a sound Year 2000 project plan, perhaps none is more important than testing,''
said McDonough who also underscored contingency planning in the global financial industry.

McDonough also is Chairman of the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision of the Bank for International
Settlements ( BIS ) .

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:09
SWP1 (Mike Sheller : Re: Synchronism vs. Causality) ID#233199:
Thanks for making that clear...

....planet responsible ( actually synchronistic would be more like it )

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 22:06
Spock (Beaming Up Now.....) ID#210114:
Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:59
Spock (Russian Gold Coins) ID#210114:
I'll be Russian to get some. Have a feeling that they will be collector's items in years to come.

Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:57
glenn (TO APH @ 21:06) ID#376309:

A must read!

This game is very hard & dangerous and it will NEVER be easy to make money.

To KitKat - I think I have said this several times. A limit move in Gold is $75.00 ( Up or Down it does not matter ) Then after the limit is reached they close Gold for 15 minutes and start back up again. So Gold can go up $150/ounce in ONE day. I am not sure what happens at the second limit up.
For silver it is $1.50 per ounce

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:57
Spock (Love It!!) ID#210114:
The number of responses to my posts has been overwhelming. Makes it all worth while.

Still long on the noble metal. Still hoping for the big bull to make it all worth while.

Otherwise all I have got is a lot of really big bull.

Life goes on.

Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:55
Bully Beef (True story.Long before the US vertical insertion into Grenada sleepy WW2 Father and Mother) ID#260119:
Copyright © 1998 Bully Beef/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
travelled there to visit a first cousin who went there with CUSO. They took photographs of the new airport under construction with Cuban military personnel etc.I saw the pictures and they were extremely boring and you know being polite and all I seemed interested.
Two years later there was Ronald Regan waving secret satellite pictures of an airport that was going to be used to nuke the continental US of A.Those satellite pictures somehow legitimized the invasion.This is the same airport my parents laughed and joked on with workers.I am not saying that Grenadians are unhappy that the Americans came. I am saying that Ronald and Nancy need'nt have used satellite photos. If they had gone on holiday in Grenada they would have got much better photos.But it would not have inspired young Americans to risk their lives. ( Ron and Nanc in Bermuda clothes. )
I relate this only because I have a computer and it is capable of making calculations for a warhead. However I can't make it make those calculations.You see it all depends on what you think the definition of the word is is. Technology is going everywhere. You can't stop it.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:54
oris (AUH20) ID#242258:
Copyright © 1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I really wanted to post on this gold idea from Russia,
but I think I did it before, also RJ did, quite correctly.
But lets try it again.

Do not trust it. Do not trust any Russian financial deals.
Enough people got burned... No way it will work as some
people outside Russia think it will work. The ONLY
purpose of this idea is to officially exchange a lot of
paper roubles ( that a FEW rich people in Russia have ) to
such valuable form of wealth as gold. This is some form
of conspiracy inside the Russian power circles to preserve
capital of RICH and POWERFUL in Russia, who are in this a situation when dollar is kind of getting
scarce... This trick is very well known to Russians, and I
can promise you that these coins, if minted, will disappear
immediately upon being officially injected into circulation.

This is the STING, and nothing else. Besides all,
Russia does not have enough gold for this plan to work,
as RJ also pointed out. I agree with him on this subject,
but of course he did not open my eyes...

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:54
mole (@Oak re south africa golds) ID#350145:
as mentioned, i don't know much about south african golds, but i would suspect no. american golds like abx might carry a premium because of the stability of no. america. many people wonder if so. africa can hold together after mandela passes on.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:50
Roebear (Public sentiment) ID#412172:
Copyright © 1998 Roebear/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
While buying a very good bourbon, an occasional habit I picked up somehow related to gold equities, the sales clerk made an unusual statement which immediately got my gold bug antennae alert. She was having difficulty with the change and she said And can you believe it, they are thinking of making gold coins too!. I almost fell over, for she obviously in the context of our short conversation, meant gold coinage as in gold coins with real face values relative to our currency to be used as currency. I immediately asked her where she heard that. She said on the news and could offer no further details, whereupon I surmised she had heard a news blurb on a Russian gold coin or some such thing. Disappointment, but of course it would have been to good to be true. Trying to salvage SOME information I asked her, So what do you think of that, if they mint gold coins again

Her reply ( HONEST! ) , Dumbest damn thing I ever heard of. I must admit my jaw dropped a bit. I said why would you think that? She said ( HONEST! ) Why what GOOD would they be? while she was cracking a roll of fake silver quarters into the till. I bid the quintessential middle America sales clerk good night and went home to ponder who was more brain washed, she or I! My final decision was to pour a stiff one from Jacobs Well, then I tied a ribbon around that bottle of fine double barrel bourbon. My next tipple from it will be when gold clears $318 an ounce.

One should only drink in celebration.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:49
MoReGoLd (@Why is it that every Central Banker has a twisted view of reality when it comes to Gold ? ) ID#348286:
S. Venkitaramanan, former chief of the country's
central bank, said the country's appetite for gold
signified a continuing fear of inflation rather than a
sense of wealth

I would bet him an Ounce of AU that it's exactly the opposite of his BULL-SH........

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:44
Mike Sheller (Reify) ID#348257:
Never mind gold, did you see CRK?
I love it when a plan comes together!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:42
NTEOTWAWKI (numismatic St.Gaudens cranking up on ebay) ID#390337:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:39
Spock (The Bottoms of Bulls) ID#210114:
Bottom in I don't know but it would appear to be the case.

Bull market

Not until gold moves decisively up in a short space of time. Moves up to $US300 are nice but I'm talking moves from $US300 to $US 350 - 370 in the space of two months etc.

Love to see it but no signs yet.

Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:38
Mike Sheller (oris) ID#348257:
We will drink wine ( and Vodka ) under the willow trees, my brother!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:36
Spock (Indian Gold Demand Strong (Sorry Again)) ID#210114:
Copyright © 1998 Spock/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Gold maintains lure in
India despite
economic slowdown

India's economic slowdown has done nothing to
dampen the country's long-term love affair with
gold, especially ahead of the Hindu holiday season.

Demand is surprisingly very good, said Ravi
Vasantraj, analyst at gold trading house Mecklai
and Mecklai.

We had expected it to remain either steady or fall
from last year because of the ongoing slowdown,
but we've been pleasantly surprised.

India is the world's largest gold consumer, and
demand is especially high before Diwali ( Festival of
Lights ) - which falls today - when Indians
traditionally buy gold jewellery for themselves.

India's gold production is negligible, so almost all its
gold is imported.

Makhanlal Damani, president of the Bombay
Bullion Association, said imports were expected to
rise to 700 tonnes this year from 675 tonnes last

There is good demand for gold and international
prices are also soft, Mr Damani said.

Initially, there was some doubt that domestic
demand could be down due to the economic
situation, but it hasn't happened so far.

Mr Vasantraj attributed the steady demand partly
to the decline in the stock markets and the Asian
financial turmoil, which was prompting many
investors to turn to the traditional save haven of

This asset diversification is also one of the reasons
for the good demand for gold, but the main reason
is retail buying, he said.

Indian stock markets have been taking a beating in
the past several months due to political uncertainty,
the regional financial meltdown and, most recently,
unit redemption concerns at the country's largest
mutual fund.

The economy grew 5.1 per cent in the past fiscal
year to March, compared with 7.5 per cent in the
previous year.

Poor first-quarter results in the current year have
led to forecasts of a further decline, although the
government remains adamant that it can achieve
growth of about 6.3 per cent.

In the midst of all this, demand for gold has never

The Geneva-based World Gold Council said
Indians bought 737 tonnes of gold last year, up 45
per cent from 1996.

The council's figure includes imports, domestic
production and estimates of domestic recycling of
the metal.

Gold is traditionally bought in India during the
marriage season as a gift for brides and during
Hindu festivals.

A decade ago, almost all gold imports were
smuggled into the country but in 1989 the
government relaxed controls on buying, selling and

In 1992 it introduced further deregulation by
allowing Indians returning from abroad to bring in
five kilograms of gold, a figure that was doubled

In October last year, import licences were
scrapped and, for the first time, a group of state-run
agencies and banks were allowed to make
unlimited gold imports.

Mr Damani said the scrapping of the licences saw a
13 per cent decrease in prices last year.

Less than 20 per cent of the imports are now
smuggled, he said.

Analysts said India had about 9,000 tonnes of gold
worth more than US$100 billion stocked privately.
Total stocks are put at 128,800 tonnes.

S. Venkitaramanan, former chief of the country's
central bank, said the country's appetite for gold
signified a continuing fear of inflation rather than a
sense of wealth.

Gold in Hong Kong closed at US$298.25 an ounce
on Friday, down 30 cents from Thursday. It closed
later in London at $298-$298.50 before edging up
to $299.70-$300.20 in New York.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:35
Mike Sheller (Roebear) ID#348257:
sad to hear about BCMD. It was on my Obsidian Wave list ( certain astrological conjunction I track ) 2 years ago, and came through with that pop that you described. A spectacular chart. I never bought any, but it certainly helped that's year's portfolio lis percentage-wise.
Interesting that the planet responsible ( actually synchronistic would be more like it ) brings either regeneration or bankruptcy for a corporation.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:34
Spock (Indian Gold Demand Strong) ID#210114:
Copyright © 1998 Spock/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Gold maintains lure in
India despite
economic slowdown

India's economic slowdown has done nothing to
dampen the country's long-term love affair with
gold, especially ahead of the Hindu holiday season.

Demand is surprisingly very good, said Ravi
Vasantraj, analyst at gold trading house Mecklai
and Mecklai.

We had expected it to remain either steady or fall
from last year because of the ongoing slowdown,
but we've been pleasantly surprised.

India is the world's largest gold consumer, and
demand is especially high before Diwali ( Festival of
Lights ) - which falls today - when Indians
traditionally buy gold jewellery for themselves.

India's gold production is negligible, so almost all its
gold is imported.

Makhanlal Damani, president of the Bombay
Bullion Association, said imports were expected to
rise to 700 tonnes this year from 675 tonnes last

There is good demand for gold and international
prices are also soft, Mr Damani said.

Initially, there was some doubt that domestic
demand could be down due to the economic
situation, but it hasn't happened so far.

Mr Vasantraj attributed the steady demand partly
to the decline in the stock markets and the Asian
financial turmoil, which was prompting many
investors to turn to the traditional save haven of

This asset diversification is also one of the reasons
for the good demand for gold, but the main reason
is retail buying, he said.

Indian stock markets have been taking a beating in
the past several months due to political uncertainty,
the regional financial meltdown and, most recently,
unit redemption concerns at the country's largest
mutual fund.

The economy grew 5.1 per cent in the past fiscal
year to March, compared with 7.5 per cent in the
previous year.

Poor first-quarter results in the current year have
led to forecasts of a further decline, although the
government remains adamant that it can achieve
growth of about 6.3 per cent.

In the midst of all this, demand for gold has never

The Geneva-based World Gold Council said
Indians bought 737 tonnes of gold last year, up 45
per cent from 1996.

The council's figure includes imports, domestic
production and estimates of domestic recycling of
the metal.

Gold is traditionally bought in India during the
marriage season as a gift for brides and during
Hindu festivals.

A decade ago, almost all gold imports were
smuggled into the country but in 1989 the
government relaxed controls on buying, selling and

In 1992 it introduced further deregulation by
allowing Indians returning from abroad to bring in
five kilograms of gold, a figure that was doubled

In October last year, import licences were
scrapped and, for the first time, a group of state-run
agencies and banks were allowed to make
unlimited gold imports.

Mr Damani said the scrapping of the licences saw a
13 per cent decrease in prices last year.

Less than 20 per cent of the imports are now
smuggled, he said.

Analysts said India had about 9,000 tonnes of gold
worth more than US$100 billion stocked privately.
Total stocks are put at 128,800 tonnes.

S. Venkitaramanan, former chief of the country's
central bank, said the country's appetite for gold
signified a continuing fear of inflation rather than a
sense of wealth.

Gold in Hong Kong closed at US$298.25 an ounce
on Friday, down 30 cents from Thursday. It closed
later in London at $298-$298.50 before edging up
to $299.70-$300.20 in New York.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:33
AUH20 (ORIS) ID#200235:
Could you comment on MoReGold's 2l.0l about russian coins?

Great Idea. Is it possible that the politboro can pull this off? Interesting that the country that has lost the most, has almost nothing to lose, could be the one country to put us back on a real monetary standard.

Thanks in advance

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:33
ptwoskool (Gold's bottom) ID#225369:
I ask ,Relative to what?

I don't see gold much higher plus or minus 10% for a long time.

I want to say Bull, when someone on CNBC announces that gold rose to 400 in overnite trading.I will only use the Bull word in disbelief.

God................I hate politics.Do you?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:31
kapex (The latest on our SOB, sorry, scumball, ooppps, I mean slimebag,oh jeeeess) ID#218222:
Copyright © 1998 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
you know, #!%&@#*!
SAT Oct 17 1998 13:59:08 ET


An examination of the Clinton administration's export policies on China, based on interviews
as well as government and industry documents, shows that the looser regulations enabled Chinese
companies to obtain a wide range of sophisticated technology, some of which has already been
diverted to military uses.

So reports NEW YORK TIMES hotshot Jeff Gerth in Monday editions.

The DRUDGE REPORT obtained a prerelease of the Gerth expose that has been hotly anticipated in
official Washington circles in recent days.

Senior officials have told Gerth that President Clinton decided to change U.S. export rules and
policy -- involving sales of computers and other cutting-edge technologies -- without a
rigorous review by intelligence officials or other national security experts.

Commerce Department internal documents reviewed by the TIMES show that China has been a major
beneficiary of the new Clinton policy: According to a 1995 estimate, more than $1.9 billion in
annual trade with China had been removed from federal scrutiny.

In 1996, Chinese companies bought 77 high-speed computers from U.S. companies, which can be
used to predict weather patterns but can also scramble secret communications or design powerful
nuclear weapons, reports Gerth.

CIA and other federal agencies have concluded that at least some of those computers are now
being used by China's military.

Gerth's nightmare runs 3,000-words and was bumped from the paper's lead spot on Monday because
of developments in the Mideast peace talks, it has been learned.

The Senate Intelligence Committee and a special House panel have held a series of closed-door
hearings in the past few months. Gerth outlines the red zones of the probes.

The Clinton administration's new policy on tech sales to China relied on industry executives to
raise questions about their own sales, according to the report.

They were required to seek a Commerce Department license only if they believed the equipment
would end up in military hands. Aerospace officials say they are ill equipped to make such

AT&T and other U.S. companies sold hundreds of millions of dollars in sophisticated tech
equipment in to Chinese companies building civil telecommunication networks in 1994.

The TIMES reports that an examination of the deal by the General Accounting Office, the audit
arm of Congress, has found that the equipment was sold to a Chinese-U.S. joint venture, Hua
Mei, without Commerce review, even though the company was partially controlled by several
high-level members of the Chinese military.

Developing hard.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:27
oris (Reify, why did Mike do it?) ID#242258:
Brother Mike Sheller is smart. He knows that gold is going up,
so...he want to buy more to benefit from this move, right?
So, as you mentioned in your post, as the result of
bullish forecast arranged with Mike's participation,
gold will drop tomorrow, right? So, Mike will buy more
on this dip...and then he will arrange for the vote
of the opposite nature...then gold will go up...he will
be rich...

I'm proud to have Mike Sheller as my brother, dah!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:25
mole (@Oak re abx and anglo) ID#350145:
Copyright © 1998 mole/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
my knowledge here is like swiss cheese, big holes, but: book value has little meaning in mining shares because different properties have different potential for discovery of additional reserves. you have to sort of know the mine, district other properties and much more. i don't know anything about any stocks outside of north america. before the net it was too hard to gain the knowledge. most of my information comes out of the northern miner, which i have been reading for almost 20 years and a couple of gurus i subscribe to. abx, hm, newmont, placer and a couple of others is about as creative as the institutions and wall street get; which is great because that leaves the others to us little guys and sometimes we can make a nice hit. even high quality juniors like high river gold pretty much get left alone. but i like the intermediate little guys, because they often get overlooked until they hit and then they explode. there are tons of bargins out there. there are many stocks out there that in a normal mkt would be selling for $5.00 or more that are selling for .25 to .75 cents. its also tough to get even a double out of abx, but to many of the smaller guys its just takes a glance at higher prices in gold. i don't think that answered your question, but it must have answered some question.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:24
kitkat (@APH) ID#208392:
Interesting times indeeed! Your posting brings to mind several questions. What is the limit today? Is there a down limit? How did the mining stocks react to this euphoria? Was there a discernible trigger that caused the ball to get rolling? With time, the brokers must get numb to the feelings of others as fortunes come and go...much like a blackjack dealer sees only chips coming and going and becomes insensitive to the humanity that throws down the cash.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:22
SWP1 (To buy or not to buy...(mkt guesses...)) ID#233199:
Rangebound through mid-nov $289.xx - $304.xx
Mid Nov. to Jan 99 breakout to $339.xx
Year end ( '99 ) over $400.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:22
BCIWN (@JP) ID#259323:
I very much think you have it right JP!!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:21
Roebear (Oak at 20:11) ID#412172:
Copyright © 1998 Roebear/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Just in case you didn't know, BCMD ( Brush Creek Mining and Development Co ) has released its intentions to file bankruptcy, if they can scrape the 50K or so needed to file! If not they will liquidate, many of their assets have already been seized by authorities for back taxes. A sad story for many investors, it was a year ago their press release of finding a sizable amount of gold in one of their mines caused their stock to run from .06 early in 97 to over $2 in Nov of 97. I was posting on their news here at the time. Actual figures did not hold the promise of the news releases and the stock gave way, finally a reverse 10-1 split in May, taken to keep their Nasdaq listing, an offshore financing and a few other such things had the stock down to about .37 before the news announcement of potential bankruptcy. Currently at .03 to .09, which is a real thrashing after a 10-1 reverse and many people had bought in the $1-$2 range BEFORE the split. I know the story of many of these investors and many of them have held to the bitter end.

This was the worst example of a gold investment I have seen since BRE-X, but they were very believable at first, with a video of their mine, investors touring their mine well ppublicized on the Net, and a very good PR. All of which would have been OK if they had found more than a few hundred ounces of gold!

This was also MY first experience with what now appears to be a scam, and thank goodness I have some charting discipline or I would have had my head handed to me on a golden platter, rather than just a haircut. Nevertheless, looking back, I believe it will be a very valuable experience for me if I utilize what I learned there. For some reason, I seem to have developed a rather keen instinct for when the boom is about to be lowered ( grin ) , I even escaped my OEX puts hours before Big AL spread the manna from CB heaven ( VBgrin ) .

Bottom line, be CAREFUL with Juniors. Shoot, be careful with ANYTHING right now.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:20
skinny (Mo Re Go Ltd) ID#287114:
Your obvious disgust with the $50 value being placed upon the Canadian Mountie gold piece is a great example of the power that a currency of one country may have on another. This effect of course runs world wide. We all know that this particular coin has its value established in US dollars. All other countries then convert the value to their monies.
The way the Canadian government has been handling their finances in the last 30 years, it is probably correct that the $50 be placed upon it.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:18
Reify (Darn you MIKE SHELLER,) ID#413109:
just when things were getting comfortable and gold looked better,
you had to go and request a Kitco vote.

My second nature ( contrarian ) has turned into a doubt mode.
After studying the techs, I was feeling fine. Now......scared!

Why do you do these things, and I thought we'd become friends?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:18
Mike Sheller (APH) ID#348257:
a very graphic portrayal of the end stages of a runaway bull.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:15
Dutchman (BOTTOMS UP) ID#215235:
Gold has BOTTOMED. It is now in a consolidation pattern. Gold will trade between $290 and $305 for the next few weeks, then move up in November. The next few weeks should be used to accumulate. 1999 will begin a new bull run and those who wait for final confirmation will pay higher premiums for what is cheap physical and even cheaper stocks at today's bargain basement prices.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:12
Mike Sheller (EB - my short term gold view) ID#348257:
I think the bullion and the shares are going to do a steady, accelerating march upward from here. Everyone will be waiting for the reactyion which will not come until everyone has panicked and jumped in fearing the train was leaving without them. The correction will not be very deep. There'll be a triangle, or a nice clean Rhino formed, and then an upside breakout that will bring on a hundred dollar rally, or more, easy.
Then it will be clear that we are in a gold bull. ( at least this is what they guy who sleeps under the newspapers in Bryant Park tells me ) .

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:07
James (Gold query@POG will trade where the CBs want it to trade.) ID#252150:
They are a cabal & AU is anathema to their fiat currencies. In the near term it will track the USD ( negative correlation ) . But they won't let it become too competitive against their paper ( 276-320 ) . If I'm right & the unemployment situation in Euroland becomes intolerable to the socialist govt's, they will be steady & persistent sellers. Not unlike the impoverished aristocracy that were forced to sell off their family jewels & silver, in order to keep up appearances. Worst case scenario: POG under 230 by 2000.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:07
Spock (Today's Madness (Sorry about mispost)) ID#210114:
Copyright © 1998 Spock/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
In contrast to these markets, the gold market continues to
find support from investors who are turning to it as a safe

Alchemy was the most popular applied science in the
naturally mad 14th century, said Andy Smith,
London-based commodities analyst with Mitsui Global
Precious Metals. He suggests that in today's madness it
may be becoming popular again.

In fact, gold might have received a golden punchline
after last week's warnings from the chairman of the US
Federal Reserve, Dr Alan Greenspan, that there had
been a dramatic change in the whole risk profile of the

What is occurring is a broad area of uncertainty or fear,
Dr Greenspan said. Individuals are basically saying, 'I
want out . . . ( and ) we ( the Fed ) do not yet see the
impact . . . ( of this ) somewhat scary psychology.

Spot gold finished trading in New York at $US300/oz. It
remains in a broad $US295/oz-$305/oz trading range,
well above its late August 19-year lows of $US275/oz

In contrast to these markets, the gold market continues to
find support from investors who are turning to it as a safe

Alchemy was the most popular applied science in the
naturally mad 14th century, said Andy Smith,
London-based commodities analyst with Mitsui Global
Precious Metals. He suggests that in today's madness it
may be becoming popular again.

In fact, gold might have received a golden punchline
after last week's warnings from the chairman of the US
Federal Reserve, Dr Alan Greenspan, that there had
been a dramatic change in the whole risk profile of the

What is occurring is a broad area of uncertainty or fear,
Dr Greenspan said. Individuals are basically saying, 'I
want out . . . ( and ) we ( the Fed ) do not yet see the
impact . . . ( of this ) somewhat scary psychology.

Spot gold finished trading in New York at $US300/oz. It
remains in a broad $US295/oz-$305/oz trading range,
well above its late August 19-year lows of $US275/oz

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:06
APH (KitKat) ID#255226:
Copyright © 1998 APH/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Kit Kat - I became a registered broker in the fall of 1979 and went to work for a commodity firm in Dec. of 79. I thought I was going to learn about trading instead they wanted sales people. The company charged big up front loads. The clients didn't care they just wanted to be in the market at any price. I thought this was easy. The market was soaring. Every morning I'd come in and there would be checks from all over the country for as much as a $100,000 sent to a broker by a client with only a phone call as the contact. By late Dec early Jan the market was locking limit up $25. The clients couldn't get in the market because the market was locked limit all day. The limits where expanded to $50. Margins requirements went though the roof. A silver contract had a margin of $50,000. The market finally stopped gong limit up and the client buy orders were filled of course now was the top. As fast as it went up it came down even faster. Silver and gold were locked limit down for days no one could get out. All those clients with big ideas of making a killing were wiped out and owed the firm money. Some of the toughest calls I've ever made. Hello Mr. Jones the market locked limit down by the time we got you out your $20k was gone and you owe us another 20k and we want it now. A lot of pissed off people and several lawsuits followed. None of them had any grounds. Several of the brokers quit after that a few clients called and told us about their divorces due to their loses. It was scarier than a roller coaster, which it was.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:06
HighRise (skinny) ID#401460:



Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:04
Spock (Today's Madness) ID#210114:
Copyright © 1998 Spock/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
n contrast to these markets, the gold market continues to
find support from investors who are turning to it as a safe

Alchemy was the most popular applied science in the
naturally mad 14th century, said Andy Smith,
London-based commodities analyst with Mitsui Global
Precious Metals. He suggests that in today's madness it
may be becoming popular again.

In fact, gold might have received a golden punchline
after last week's warnings from the chairman of the US
Federal Reserve, Dr Alan Greenspan, that there had
been a dramatic change in the whole risk profile of the

What is occurring is a broad area of uncertainty or fear,
Dr Greenspan said. Individuals are basically saying, 'I
want out . . . ( and ) we ( the Fed ) do not yet see the
impact . . . ( of this ) somewhat scary psychology.

Spot gold finished trading in New York at $US300/oz. It
remains in a broad $US295/oz-$305/oz trading range,
well above its late August 19-year lows of $US275/oz

In contrast to these markets, the gold market continues to
find support from investors who are turning to it as a safe

Alchemy was the most popular applied science in the
naturally mad 14th century, said Andy Smith,
London-based commodities analyst with Mitsui Global
Precious Metals. He suggests that in today's madness it
may be becoming popular again.

In fact, gold might have received a golden punchline
after last week's warnings from the chairman of the US
Federal Reserve, Dr Alan Greenspan, that there had
been a dramatic change in the whole risk profile of the

What is occurring is a broad area of uncertainty or fear,
Dr Greenspan said. Individuals are basically saying, 'I
want out . . . ( and ) we ( the Fed ) do not yet see the
impact . . . ( of this ) somewhat scary psychology.

Spot gold finished trading in New York at $US300/oz. It
remains in a broad $US295/oz-$305/oz trading range,
well above its late August 19-year lows of $US275/oz

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:04
Mike Sheller (Kitco Konsensus is BULLISH) ID#348257:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
By 4-1, the Kitco Konsesus is bullish indeed. Out of 36 responses to the Kwestion: Is the gold bottom in? Yes or no?, 29 answered YES that the bottom WAS in, and only 7 answered that prices would go lower.

Lou-Jan WAS counted twice inasmuch as they are a father/daughter tandem. It is delightful to see a parent and offspring so closely attuned to the gold market. Doin' a great job with that kid, Lou ( or Jan, or whichever Dad is ) .

The Kitco Konsesus also taught me not to flirt in cyberspace with any Blondes. I had to count the votes with Blonde's male. I understand why she refers to him that way. Nevertheless, the chemistry wasn't all that bad, and we're going out thursday night.

Any additional replies may be logged by others if you so wish. The last Kitcoite I included in the poll was Tantalus Rex ( the noblest Kitcoite of them all ( ( I think they named a dinosaur after him ) ) ) .

What conclusions may be drawn from this is anyone's guess. The most obvious might be that the overwhelmingly bullish response could indicate further lows ahead ( contrarian philosophy ) . On the other hand ( OTOH ) the Kitco Krowd being so damn witty, urbane, and erudite, the Konsensus might just be right on the money. The fun part is we get to find out...don't we?!

Thanks again for the response.
May all your positions

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 21:01
MoReGoLd (@Russians to Use Gold as Money) ID#348286:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

This is great news. Hats off to the Russians, I hope it will help them.
But much more important, this may be the beginning of a trend that could spread, quite possibly to the Asian monetary system.
Also of importance is the Russian coins would contain the actual face value in PM's.
The asses in Canada sell the one ounce Maple with a $50. Can face value stamped on it. Pure idiocy.

Russia may back rouble with gold and silver coins

 MOSCOW, Oct 18 ( Reuters ) - Russia is considering minting gold and silver coins from state reserves to back the rouble and help the government honor its crushing financial obligations, a senior official told NTV commercial television on Sunday.
  Dmitry Ignatyev, deputy head of the state precious metals reserve Gokhran, said the final stage of consultations between Gokhran and the central bank would take place on Monday and the plan could take effect next month.
  Central bank chairman Viktor Gerashchenko would determine whether or not the project goes ahead, but possible designs for the coins were already being discussed, he said.
  If the plan gets the green light, the coins could be used as a means of payment and be traded on exchanges, he said.
  We are considering backing for the national currency, or more precisely for ( rouble ) emission, with resources from the reserves of Gokhran, Ignatyev said.
  Between 100 billion and 200 billion roubles ( $6.25 billion and $12.5 billion ) worth of the coins could be issued, he said.
  I stress that we are talking about possibilities. What will actually happen today from the point of view of regulating the financial situation of Russia we can only entrust to our chief banker Gerashchenko, he said.
  In order to back 30-40 billion roubles, we need to mint something like 100 ( metric ) tons of gold. But now, in the first stage perhaps as an experiment, we may be talking of minting 10-30 tons of gold and silver coins.
  The Russian government is scrambling for funds to cover a budget deficit estimated at almost 100 billion roubles for the fourth quarter of this year. The central bank says it will not print unbacked roubles.
  The prospects for borrowing on domestic and international markets are virtually nil following a decision in August to effectively devalue the rouble, default on domestic debt and declare a moratorium on some foreign debt repayments.
  A subsequent collapse in the banking system has worsened already dismal tax collection rates, but federal tax service chief Georgy Boos told NTV that he hoped to bring in more than 35 billion roubles in the fourth quarter.
  NTV said the plan to issue gold and silver coins had been amended from an initial version, details of which were published earlier this month in the leading business daily Kommersant.
  NTV said the nominal value of the coins, in contrast to the initial plan, would correspond to the real value of their precious metal content.
  If the coin has 500 roubles written on it, that is the amount of gold it contains, it said.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:59
skinny (High Rise) ID#287114:
W.I.M. William Resources Toronto Ex.
A high flyer when gold was a better price, was at one time on Toronto 300 index.
Day traders having fun with this one.
As an investment.. like a Vegas slot machine, $1000. may get you $10000.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:56
Lou_Jan (Green spin/span/spawn.. whatever.) ID#320136:
Poor AG-- I think his name will turn out to be his
very nemesis. Can you see it now? SPAN of green...
as far as the eye can see...$$$$$ here's to voting for/
dreaming in $30,000-technicolor!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:56
Pete (Nick@c) ID#222231:
Great post. Anyone taking bets? I say mozels hard headed propensity will have a comback. What say you? Or better yet, maybe he will stop and desist.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:56
ravenfire (confidence in HK at levels not seen since Tiananmen square incident) ID#333126:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:55
ravenfire (HK says rate cuts might have no effect on them after today) ID#333126:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:54
Oak (Thanks for the response mole. Heres something else with another ?) ID#240241:
Copyright © 1998 Oak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The following 12 stocks have increased consistantly in avg. daily vol.
starting from last year to last qtr. to last mth. to the last 2 weeks.
abx, nem, drooy, gsr, rangy, laorf, bvn, ric, rgld, angly, tvx & mkau.
Thought it was interesting that a lot of the favorites were here.

Drooy has a book value/share of $33.92. Fridays close was $3.56. Has
a market cap of 7.8 million. Can anyone explain why the enormous
difference? Is this an error? If not, why hasn't it risen to at
least half its supposed value?

Angly has a market cap of 7.6 billion but only 1.5% is held by
institutions. Compare that to ABX with 7.9 billion of which 33.8%
is held by institutions. ABX's daily volume for the last 2 weeks
is 3,098,000 & Angly's is 57,500. Who's holding & apparently not
trading Angly's shares?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:52
ERLE (Bottom not in...) ID#190411:
Copyright © 1998 ERLE/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I agree with Silverbaron, and Blonde. Gold- up/down is based on your currency perspective. I came up with a Yen converted price of 251.00, which Sdr'er pointed out should be 249.00.
There was a post earlier today that mentioned some possible CB support of the USD from Europe, which might account for the POG disparity between Yen and Euro currencies.
As Nick@C pointed out earlier today that POG in Aussie is down bigtime.
I say it has made new lows, and will stay, or go somewhat lower.-Damned paper money.
Glenn's POG prognostication of a few weeks ago seems to be in the money from a non-USD currency point of reference.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:50
JP (From Capetown--South Africa-- Greenspan lowering interest rates is a confirmation of an ) ID#253153:
Copyright © 1998 JP/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
accelerating deflation. The fed is very worried and fighting deflation by lowering rates. Like in Japan, interest rates will continue to decline until they reach almost zero in the next few years. Industrial production in the US is declining rapidly and economic activity overall is also slipping. Speculators--both gold and silver shares still offer an opportunity of a life time. Why not trade your paper ( play ) money for gold and silver shares? As early 1999 approaches, we will begin to see a major depression in business unfold. Both gold and silver will gain the full respect of investors. The will skyrocket in late 1999 and in years 2000-2002 as the depression hits all around in all business and in almost all kinds of stocks. Don't take it lightly, it's once in a life time event we are about to witness. Just a personal note, I'm not a pessimist. I have been an optimist all my life and was a super bull on stocks and bonds from Aug 1982-to Feb 1998. Circumstances have changed and it's time to adapt to the new environment.
By the way, Capetown is a beautifull city. I'm here on the first leg of my African vacation. On Tuesday I'll travel to Kenya and join a Safari in the wild for 7 days.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:48
oris (Mike Sheller, we got those bottoms in, dah,dah,dah!) ID#238422:
Brother Mike,

Thanks for the fun you offered to us - gold bottom lovers.
Immediately upon learning that we are invited to play with
bottoms again, I arranged for a powerful XXX-rated ( even worse )
vodka/pickle test. Anyway, at the end of the day it became
clear that this bottom finally in...but you know,
it still hurts...

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:48
Earl (Blonde (Faux Blonde): ) ID#227238:
It ain't just gold that's disappointing. By virtue of your disclaimer, Sheller is now suffering a case of fantasy interruptus.

Mike Sheller: POG 280 is the bottom. ...... My fantasy has always been that Another is both credible and correct. ..... Also mostly interruptus.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:47
Nick@C (Physics 101 for mozel) ID#386245:
Its a shame that you flunked high school physics, mozel. Your non-moonwalk nonsense won't assuage the guilt. Perhaps you should see a psychologist to ease your conspiracy persecution complex.

Thermal Regulation

How a Thermos Works
Thanks to Gollum.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:46
HighRise (Skinny) ID#401460:

What is WIM? I can't seem to find it on Yahoo quote search.


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:44
au*stralian (Gold bottom vote) ID#25174:
The gold spring has been wound so tight that it cant move much anymore. Players are now firm in their positions so their is only one way to go, UP. Greenspin must have sore fingers .

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:39
NTEOTWAWKI (gold bottom vote) ID#390337:
Due to my currrent hedge spread position and the possible chaos theory Butterfly affect, my vote is ... maybe.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:36
BCIWN (My take on this weeks action is) ID#259323:
the US dollar will weaken because of expectations of rate cuts in the near future.
Gold will rise to about $310 with the $xau up to 90+ because of lack of heavy short selling, a weaker dollar, and some buying as a hedge against reinflation.
The DOW could approach 8700,break above the 200 day moving average,for what is hopefully the high of a truly great suckers rally, and then begin a long retreat to 6300 or lower by the end of the year.
If this happens, I will be rich and happy!!!
If it doesn't happen, well... ignorance is bliss!!!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:34
au*stralian (Aussie gold stocks) ID#25174:
undecided in opening trade, small upward pressure , probably waiting on DOW ,

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:34
skinny (Mole) ID#287114:
One thing about the penny golds... the management has a lot invested themselves.
They try harder.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:30
HighRise (Lou_Jan) ID#401460:

Our being positve may be negative for Gold,

Not this Time.


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:28
mole (@oak re senior mining co's) ID#350145:
Copyright © 1998 mole/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
there are many who know more than i, but i think in general the institutions stick with the majors. they feel they can't justify the risk with most juniors. but, there are other groups and private investors that work there way down from majors to pennies. it has been my observation that the majors get fully valued ( in a price rise ) quickly and then just sit and churn. at that point many will move down to big juniors, etc. of course there will be a certain amount of movement in the juniors as well. sometimes when gold and seniors are moving up, some juniors and exploration stocks will actually move down as money is drawn out of juniors and put in seniors because, as mentioned, they can be relied upon to move in almost perfect sync with a gold or silver priice rise. good question.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:26
Lou_Jan (Excuse me/us but...) ID#320136:
with this near unanimous and zealous POG prognostication, doesn't
this actually bode negatively for the POG? Can we ever win?

p.s. Mike, I know you said not to vote twice -- but we're actually
a father/daughter team ( Lou and Jan ) , so we really should get a
2nd vote.

GO GOLF, GARDENING, GREEN-SPAN ( please print more $$$$ ) ,
and, oh yes, .... GO GOLD!!!!!!!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:25
BUFFORD (T-Rex if we hit bottom Barrick should have made an aquistion by now) ID#253246:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:24
skinny (Bill El Zebub) ID#287114:
Stagflation... Is defined as the situation where we have both inflation and recession at the same time.
In other words a bottle of Scotch is 5 cents and a can of beer $5.00.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:19
Blonde (Faux Blonde) ID#263278:
Well, well. I spend an afternoon with the girls and what happens? My male, an unreconstructed gold bug, got on the net to post his opinion. Couldn't wait until he got to work and post on his own. I can see it's stimulated a bit of fantasy--not unlike the fantasy that gold is going up. It may be that the bottom is in, but the performance of gold has been disappointing, to say the least, when compared with the decline in the US$ that has taken place since early August. Sorry for the confusion--got to try to keep this guy under control in the future!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:17
Tantalus Rex (@Mike Sheller) ID#295111:
Copyright © 1998 Tantalus Rex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
My vote to the Konsensus survey is that we have hit the BOTTOM.

To clarify a bit, as I've said before at Kitco ( but I've been wrong many times too ) is that Gold cannot go below $280 oz for long.

On a prolonged $280, ( on worldwide averages ) the marginal cost of producing gold becomes greater than the marginal revenue generated from sales of gold. So many gold mines will shut down forcing the POG to rise.

What is key though is that it has to be a PROLONGED $280.

If only I was right all the time...I might not be posting here as much and thereforespending more time at the gold course.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:11
Oak (vote & a couple of questions) ID#240241:
Copyright © 1998 Oak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Bottoms in -------- ummmm, unless it drops by $10 tonight.
Then I reserve the right to change my mind.

Is the book value/share worth anything with gold stocks?
The following is based on Friday's close.
Reason I ask, did a pull on all Gold stocks. The 10 most
overvalued based on book value/share are DMM.B, hm, rgld,
mdg, bmg, pdg, abx, nem, eco, ggo. Average Institutional
holdings for those stocks is 36%.

The bottom 10 ( or most undervalued based on book value/share )
are bcmd, tgbry, ngasf, drooy, rdmmf, goldf, calvf, hvgo, mglcf
& tlnof. The average institutional holdings for these stocks
is %1.

Since the largest stocks have the most institutional holdings, at what point do they believe a stock is overvalued? Do they move down the food chain or just bail in & out of the top caps?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:00
Bill El Zebub (Stagflation....fuels gold,hurts the general market,fosters fearful) ID#261352:
consumers.Could it happen?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 20:00
ArmGold (My Vote) ID#247428:

The Bottom is here from now on it can only go up. If by a slight chance this is not the Bottom I'm going to split more hairs, that is not a good thing considering that I'm getting thin up there ( grin )

Go Gold!



Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 19:56
TYoung ( in European currencies....) ID#317193:
and the ECU's going down for a purpose Any THOUGHTS. Interesting.


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 19:56
Grizz (Morbius - do you promise? Gold Double Eagles again?) ID#431366:
Getting the Gold/Silver ratio back down into the twenties would
close the gap between big Silver coins & teeny Gold coins.

Though I would be happy with Silver Double Eagles ( 1oz = $20 )
It's a joke that US Silver Eagles have a face value of US$1.00
OTOH, it agrees with your prediction of Silver at $1.
And what of Gold? Those 1oz Eagles have only a $50 face value.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 19:47
James (Can't you just picture the light bulb turning on in Geenspam's head) ID#252150:
From Alan Ableson:

What Mr. Greenspan knew in a rather abstract way was that, economically
speaking, the world was going to hell in a handbasket. Which he found
interesting until it dawned on him that the U.S., including the Federal Reserve
Board and its chairmanship, is part of the world, and then he found it alarming.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 19:44
EB (gold...moon...BASEBALL...) ID#187109:
MikeS - yes, what is YOUR vote? Not long term mind you....we know that one ;- )

Mozel - we will keep the moon debate going on in your absence...........maybe.

Baseball - I hope the umpiring is better tonight. The Yankee grand slam should have NEVER ocurred last night. The pitch before was STRIKE THREE! It was pretty obvious from my seat............... ( on the couch ) ................. ( sipping Anchor Steam ) ............. ( eatin' pretzels ) ........... ( smokin' fine Dominican's, etc. ) ....................................oh well. That is the human side of the greatest game on Earth. Go Padres!! Go golf...

nteotwawki - I like yer stuff...............good on ya.

Aurator - Yankees or the Padres? I'm bettin HEAVILY on what you say........................

Who said this was a gold channel? the couch..............wiff me brew......


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 19:39
kitkat (Gold Highs of LONG Ago) ID#208392:
Anybody here old and wise enough to have been invested in gold during those periods when it was rising by leaps and bounds? If so, please tell us about it. I faintly remember a newscaster announcing that gold had risen by $40 dollars in one day, and repeating a similar rise th next day. When this started - how did you react? Where there any signs that led up to the quick rise? How was the end signalled? Did you make money?
I'm sure a lot of us would be interested to learn from history. Thanks.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 19:38
Charles Keeling (Ate The Scene---Gold has seen its lows) ID#344225:
The bottom is in. It may be tested one more time
before moving much past 300.00.

Jack Kemp thinks that GOLD should be driven to
at least 325 to stave off deflation. Commodities
must rise.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 19:37
aurator () ID#251168:
We have a language barrier. My no worries colloquialism was meant as my lending support to you. I had not read of your problems with the arrest warrant then. My apologies if my post read differently.

I hope you continue to post of your fight with the 'thorities.

It's only words, and words are all I have
to thank you for your thoughts.

Are you related to the Gibb brothers? The Bee Gees?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 19:37
HighRise (GOLD) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Gold ( CMX )

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 19:36
Mike Sheller (Delphi, the Kitco Konsensus Kwestion) ID#348257:
my vote is that the bottom is in.

Thanks again for the responses gang - Please do not vote twice. I am keeping a count. Mozel can vote from jail. We'll wait for skinny to get clear on this, and gagnrad's guess is suspect considering no chicken livers have been involved in his calculations. But we'll count it anyhow. Please hurry up and get your vote in. Blonde has emailed me privately and we are going the votes together.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 19:36
RAN__A (My commodity advisor's e-mail arrived a little late this sunday.) ID#411140:
He is recommending 1 S&P short. Says action last week was typical of savage bear mkt rally that can occur in the early stages of a bear mkt when there are still enthusiasts wanting to buy what they think is low and those who are scared of being short. The popular imagination perceives a bear mkt in stocks as a one-way street which of cours it is not, any more than a bull mkt goes only upward.---Colin Alexander
Five Star trading.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 19:29
TYoung ( a double roll of'll need it) ID#317193:
Not so much gold as gold shares. got mine...did not need to ask. The thank you still stands.


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 19:26
morbius (@Grizz) ID#35757:
Yep. Gold will go to $20.00 and silver will go to $1.00. It will be 1960 again, and we will be back on a PM standard.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 19:20
NTEOTWAWKI (backyard gold & y2k) ID#390337:
Copyright © 1998 NTEOTWAWKI/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I was enjoying a Henry Clay & ESB Red Ale in the backyard today. Gorgeous cirrus clouds drifting overhead. Small sulfers dancing on the butterfly bush. Fall is quickly approaching and the first frost is near. These little buggers are getting in their last feast and sex fest before winter sets in. Got me to thinking about y2k preparations and gold.

Gold? Gold!

Son, I says. ( not his real name ) Yes daddy? ( my real name ) We forgot about the gold buried in the backyard. We rushed to the shed to grab a shovel and a spade, then off to the backyard. The area had been freshly mowed of overgrown weeds and we began to dig in the appropriate spot.

Sure enough, after digging frantically, there they were. Dozens of golden orbs. As we wiped the soil off of them and threw them into his junior sized Playschool wheel barrow, he made a remarkable comment usually heard only from the mouth's of babes. Daddy we're rich!

Enough teasing. We had just brought in our garden potato ( e Dan Quayle ) crop of Yukon Gold. As we collect our various forms of gold for y2k I have a question for you all. Are you all adding 'g'ardening to your 'g'- list of must haves?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 19:19
Grizz (Gold has not bottomed yet) ID#431366:
It has a long ways down to go.
That's my vote.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 19:06
HighRise (International News?) ID#401460:


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 19:03
IDT (Gold survey) ID#228128:
The bottom isn't in yet. I'm not confident enough yet in this opinion to be short.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 19:01
HighRise (skinny) ID#401460:

What mines are you buying?


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 18:59
Delphi (Mike Sheller) ID#258142:
And what is your vote, Mike?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 18:46
skinny (The bottom) ID#28994:
Copyright © 1998 skinny/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Does it really make any difference? Most commodities at the present are in a depressed state. Whether gold depreciates now and then rises at a later date, does not really matter. The whole situation is just a matter of time. All markets being relative to economic conditions and supply and demand, gold will at some time rise. Myself, I have been inclined lately to invest in the gold mining stocks as the value of them can appreciate many times over while the hard commodity of gold itself would be hard pressed to double its value.
To divert attention from the moon walk, my opinion is that Y2K will be no more than a mere fizzle. I intend to buy my 1st hard gold from Kitco on New Years day providing they're sober. Failing that, the next day for sure. I hope I will be able to acquire some gold that is embedded with the year 2000.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 18:43
Boardreader (Glenn: As Oleman says .........) ID#20767:

Winners are lonely people.

But are you alone?

Bob in DC

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 18:43
crazytimes (Gold..) ID#344326:
Has bottomed IMHO. Since gold is having a tough time getting over 300, it may reverse course to 295 before the launch over 300. I say 340 by years end.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 18:41
Boardreader (George: Unfortunately.......) ID#20767:


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 18:40
HighRise (glenn) ID#401460:

My bet has been placed for some time.


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 18:40
RAN__A (Here in Tennessee we have a democratic candidate for governor who ) ID#411140:
accepts no campaign contributions in excess of $100, and then only from those who are registered voters within the state. His only campaign topic is campaign financing, though he has been heard to utter we will

never have a better country until we throw all the bums out. He wears Abe Lincoln stovepipe hats, longtail coats, and sues the incumbent governor for the right to hold fundraisers in the governors mansion.

He is approximating a Bullworth candidacy but is generally thought to have only the proverbial snowball's chance in h___. Got my vote though for sure.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 18:36
mole (federal reserve and gold floor) ID#350145:
i have heard it rumored that the fed had become concerned about low commodity prices and actually put a floor under gold. i don't know the truth of this, but it does make sense to me. if that is true - then we have seen the bottom.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 18:29
glenn (Only 30 minutes until gold opens in NY!) ID#376309:
Everyone get ready to place your bets!!!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 18:27
glenn (Gold) ID#376309:
Copyright © 1998 glenn/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You can tell what is going to be said before you read the posters comments. You have people who are bullish no matter what and then you have... well ME! I'm still bearish, as much as ever.

Gold's going DOWN! The bottom is NOT in. Get short.

I know that I've been looking for the next wave down for a while and it has not happened but everyone else has been looking for a big move up and that has not happened either. The jury is still out and only time will tell.

Go Luck to everyone. Gold will enter a bull market one day just not yet.

We will close lower this week!!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 18:15
Pete (The bottom is in-ANOTHERS POST at USAGOLD on 10/16/98) ID#222231:
Copyright © 1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
ANOTHER has always said that $280/oz was bottom because of BIS. Comments LGB, RJ?

ANOTHER ( 10/15/98; 22:06:54MDT - Msg ID:602 )
Mr. Kosares, The new day we begin from a dark long night. The Greenspan, he
has seen the end of his dollar as king! See now, how the assets are removed
from the back of this
weak beast. It was planned for this time, from years that have passed, how
these last days will show a new direction. Your Federal Reserve does now see
this new war as a “battle
fought while in retreat”! Indeed, this retreat will become evident as “rates that
rise” over a dollar “that does fall”! Gold? You have seen the small sales from
small countries? I have waited, with patients, for large sales as some say
would surely come. From the time of the Belgium deal, this year early, gold is
offered no more. A US dollar price below $280 held the BIS as “the bank with no
teeth”! A “one tooth cat” they are not, as this bank does mate with the great
tiger of the orient. The last meeting in Hong Kong did
change that world. Both now have the large hunger for gold and consume it as I
write. In Europe, my friends the Swiss, they speak of selling yet buy with both
hands and both feet!
This new day for gold, it be right indeed!----------- --------------------- “ the world does
float upon
the ocean of dreams, when the wind of our mind blows full with a truth
redeemed” Another

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 18:14
George (Broadreader) ID#433172:
What truth? Did I miss something?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 18:07
Bingo (Mozel...I stumbled onto some fascinating research docs) ID#263254:
on manned space missions that I think you will find intriguing as well. Could you post an email address so that I may share this with you?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 18:05
Pete (Bully Beef) ID#222231:
Not really. Now I have to buy an AMIGA system. FWIW, The Amiga was manufactured by Commador, say 15 yrs ago and was far ahead of anything else on the market at that time, especially for graphics. Goes to show you what mind control and marketing can do to offset a good product ( GOLD ) . I found that the best way to avoid mind control was to intake 5 very dry vodka martinis, shaken, not stirred. Off for my daily intake......

See ya ya Bully

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 18:05
Boardreader (What is disinformation?) ID#20767:

Obfuscation of TRUTH!

Pretty much what has happened at Kitco today.

Bob in DC

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:58
HighRise (We Have Seen The Bottom) ID#401460:


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:53
mozel (@Silverbaron) ID#153110:
Thanks. Your esteem is valued.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:45
Jack (German and Italian opinion on golds importance) ID#254288:
Pole believed to have maximum error of +/-5%.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:44
Silverbaron (mozel) ID#288295:

My comment was meant not in sympathy for your adversary, but more as a complement to your knowledge and abilities...from a layperson's point of view you are quite overwhelming in this regard.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:43
jims (gold has bottomed) ID#252391:
Answer to simple question: YES, the low is in and the $300 resistance will soon be broken to the upside.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:41
George (Gold-Moon) ID#433172:
Copyright © 1998 George/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I have intuited gold is on the way up. I don't have a decent rationale, but the equities market is cooking, the Japanese are playing thier hole card, and it's time for some excitement.

It occured to me many times that the moon walk thing could be ersatz, discounted since I don't care one way or another. They never went back, THEY NEVER HOOPLAED GOING BACK___WILL THEY NEVER RETURN Is that our little premature ejactulation into space Technical questions notwithstanding, aren't you a little curious why the cat didn't bounce?

Why did the Soviet Union dissolve so quickly? I left town to do a little job out of radio range and when I returned it was over.. There must be a lota people who don't talk about what they know.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:40
Ridgerunner (The bottom in gold is in, but) ID#409404:
Copyright © 1998 Ridgerunner/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
we may not see much of a run up until the Euro is launched in January. I still think the European Central Banks will try to benchmark their new partially gold backed currency as low as possible at its debut. Then they will let the gold genie out of the bottle to stengthen their new currency as it begins to compete with the US dolar.

The real question for me remains the weakness in the silver market. With a boatload of the stuff basically taken out of the game by Buffett and company, why hasn't silver ralled above $6? Especially now as we begin the Indian holiday period.


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:36
Lou_Jan (Gold bottom: been there, done that!) ID#320136:
Fundamentals are screaming for gold to move up
from here. Silver, I think, will go along for
the ride, especially considering the low Comex
stocks for the metal, and possibly increasing
Russian demand for coinage. Wouldn't it be dandy
if we could get master Warren to give us his
perception from here?! :~ ) ) ) ) ) Warren, are you
out there?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:29
mozel (@Gianni @Silverbaron @Debtor's Prison) ID#153110:
@Gianni At the arrest warrant stage of things, they have already got you. Even though they have not located my body yet.

@Silverbaron I don't think this is because I don't believe in the moon walk. Never feel sorry for a prosecutor.

@No doubt in these modern days goes by mumbo jumbo legalism and nothing so plain spoken as debt and prison in a phrase. But, you are still in custody whatever the mumbo jumbo.

Put this in your Y2K pipe and smoke it.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:28
gagnrad (gold vote) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
mike et al: my hunch is that gold may get up to the 310 range then fall again maybe to 290 before it gets to 325 on the next swing. be warned that the deli where i stop for lunch has not been able to get any chicken livers for 6 weeks so this prognostication is made on the basis of two polish sausage, mustard and garlic + red pepper sandwiches, hardly scientific at all!

for silver my hope is that there may be one more dip to below 4 dollars but i really suspect it will move up to the 7+ range based on several demand factors, increasing demand for chemical grade metal ( non photographic uses ) , the india/pakistan peace movement and russian coinage needs. this will lack confirmation until the chicken liver shortage is relieved. ( 8-^ ) )

If platinum ever makes 310 i'll sell the house to buy it and swc stock, then retire to a chicken ranch to await the market change.

( disclaimers apply. my investments are mine and yours are yours. divination by means of chicken livers, sausages, et cetera only work for me and results can't be replicated elsewhere. )

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:24
Bully Beef (Don't get drawn in Mr. Sheller...) ID#260119:
It's a right wing plot to...well it will be all over T.V. and that Starr feller will try and hang ya. So steel yourself sir. Your country depends on you! The flesh is weak but...Yes ...go golf...That's what I do.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:23
Savage (WINSTON) ID#290202:
Thank You.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:22
2BR02B? (@blonde) ID#266105:

Then there's the one about the two still arguing over what
kind of animal made the tracks they were examining when the
the train hit'm.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:19
Silverbaron (Mike Sheller) ID#288295:

The bottom is NOT most western European currencies - SF, DM, ECU etc. Looks like a wave 4 triangle to me.

The bottom in currencies which have been recently weaker than the US dollar.

As to gold in the US dollar ..... I would say 2 chances in 3 the bottom is IN. ( But a retest may be forthcoming in the 4th quarter )

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:17
Blonde (And thank you too, Mr. Sheller...) ID#263278: do make me see stars... Bye!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:16
Gianni Dioro (mozel) ID#384350:
Prayers are with you. Hope they don't get you.
Live long and prosper.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:16
Bully Beef (Pete.. . where can I get MINDGUARD for only six...) ID#260119:
That's right folks only six monthly payments of 40 ...that's right folks only...40 dollars... a month.Wow I 'm glad I bought MINDGUARD...are you?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:15
moa (2BOR2B...russian gold roubles) ID#269128:
well we won't be wiping our bottoms with this money.

bottom's long gone...may test $US296 or may just go straight up and never see $US300 while this yankee toilet paper is in existence.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:03
2BR02B? (russian rouble coinage) ID#266105:

The Russian government is scrambling for funds to cover a budget
deficit estimated at almost 100 billion roubles for the fourth quarter
of this year. The central bank says it will not print unbacked roubles.

( ... )

NTV said the plan to issue gold and silver coins had been amended
from an initial version, details of which were published earlier this
month in the leading business daily Kommersant.

NTV said the nominal value of the coins, in contrast to the initial
plan, would correspond to the real value of their precious metal

``If the coin has 500 roubles written on it, that is the amount of gold
it contains,'' it said.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:02
Jack (Big Al's and L'll Bob's take on gold - Word flow correction) ID#254288:

Big Al: I plan to push the gold price to about $310 by X'mas. L'll Bob want's a strong dollar so his friends on Wall Street will have a chance to buy Asia and Russia come hell or LTCM. The vibrant global economy will come after achieving these goals.

L'll Bob: The strong dollar combined with the highly
trained and productive US work force will allow the New US Empire to reign supreme and Goldman Sach's to float its IPO. Keep up the good work Abby.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 17:02
Silverbaron (mozel) ID#290456:

I pity your adversary in any court proceedings....this isn't about the moon-walk challenge is it?

BTW, say HI to Art Bell. ( ;^ ) )

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 16:56
Jack (Big Al's and L'll Bob's take on gold) ID#254288:

Big Al: I plan to push the gold price to about $310 so by X'mas. L'll Bob want's a strong dollar so his friends on Wall Street still have a chance to buy out Asia come hell or LTCM. The vibrant global economy will come after achieving these goals.

L'll Bob: The strong dollar coupled with our highly trained and productive work force will allow the New US Empire to reign supreme and Goldman Sach's to float it IPO. Keep up the good work Abby.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 16:55
Obsidian (payers? make that prayers although, given the circumstances) ID#237299:
payers may be what you need. ;- )

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 16:53
Mike Sheller (blonde) ID#348257:
thank you so much. It was good for me too.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 16:53
Winston (@Savage, re: gold volatility charts) ID#244418:
has gold futures volatility charts.
Select gold; after it loads the page scroll way down
to see the charts.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 16:51
Mike Sheller (mozel) ID#348257:
don't know what you did, but my thoughts are with you while you are on the lam, or otherwise detained and distracted from life as usual. Or is THIS life as usual for our mozel?

God speed, man. You might need it.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 16:50
mozel (@aurator) ID#153102:
Now in the last post was a typo for No.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 16:50
Obsidian (Mozel! I just retraced your comment about the warrant:) ID#237299:
Godspeed. One set of payers at your service.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 16:45
Copyright © 1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Everyone should acquire MindGuard vers. 3.01 to safeguard against mind control such as being espoused by Mozel regarding MOONWALK. Is Mozel under the influence of the gub'mnt and retained as a misinformation specialist whose purpose is to confuse and demoralize Kitcoites? You will need an Amiga to run the above software, hence there is no hope for us.{;. ) )

P.S. I predict the price of gold will go up, sooner or later.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 16:42
Blonde (...yes......yessss!...Ohhh.....YEESSSSSS!!) ID#263278:
It's going UP! The gold bottom is IN!!!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 16:41
APH (Trading (Mooney you should be interested)) ID#255226:
New lows in Gold? On the fence, 50/50 chance. Sell Dec Gold above 304 stop 307, gold will test the top of the down channel before going higher, reverse or buy under 290 stop 287. Dec Silver sell at 5.00 stop 5.05, buy or reverse at 4.40 no stop. Dec Snp sell above 1082, not sure what reasonable stop is anymore. Arch Crawford sold the snP on Thurday at 1035 with a 1041 or 1042 stop. His stop was filled at 1071.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 16:38
Obsidian (From Bondsman_A's 4:25 post @ Rubin's quote. I read statements like these and) ID#237299:

can only shake my head.

One of the main challenges is to bridge the gap between ``the sovereignty of nations on the one hand, and the demands of the transnation global economy on the other hand,'' Rubin said in a speech to fellow alumni of the Yale Law School.

Don't you just love that word demands. Roughly translated this would read:

Sovereignty of nations is an impediment to the implementation of New World Order; but were working on it.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 16:31
bmacd (The bottom for gold ) ID#261322:
is in

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 16:21
mozel (@aurator) ID#153110:
Now worry for you. You aren't facing the possibility of becoming another of their casualties while in custody.

I repeat. The arrest warrant is no joke. It is only because you do not understand their theory of the statutes that you think I am joking, I suppose. And I'm not too proud not to ask for the prayers of the believers, which hereby I do.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 16:21
2BR02B? () ID#266105:

COMPANIES: A busy week which includes the release
of gold quarterlies from Anglogold, Harmony and
Driefontein. More quarterlies will follow next week from
Anglovaal, Durban Roodepoort Deep, Randgold and Goldfields.

Monday: Harmony Gold quarterly results, Corpgro

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 16:17
John Disney (VOTING FOR GOLD) ID#24135:
to all ..
I really like voting for whether or
not gold will go up or down .. I
think it's kind of .. democratic..

Platinum to see 310 !! ( my vote )

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 16:12
mole (options, futures, senior, junior and penny mining shares, wts) ID#350145:
there is a time and place for all of the above vehicles, depending on what is going on. i use them all and anything else i can find. the real key is the KNOWLEDGE of how these work and the multitude of tricks, perspectives, an variables. it is also great to be at the possible bottom of an 18 year bear mkt. a new long term bull mkt will forgive a lot of mistakes. i already have some great profits in junior mining shares from the wash out a few weeks ago, which i was lucky enough to catch a bit of.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:55
RAN__A (The crashupdate website has adjusted from -8 to -2 indicating increased) ID#411140:
market faith. The url is . Personally I disagree with this assesment. There is no fundamental justification for increased p/e's, nothing has changed globally ( omitting inconclusive plans for IMF funding to Brazil & Japanese banks getting a public funds boost. )

As for POG the Dec. contract is above 300 once again and pushing resistance for the fourth time. It is critical that it succeed, or the path of least resistance is then inevitably down. IMHO only 2 occurences can push gold through resistance. 1 ) a market crash or 2 ) the forced unwinding of gold leasing and the later is actually dependent on the former. I rate a market crash possible though not probable.

I think the interest rate cut was thought necessary with the first cut but was held up to the advantage of LTCM. It has occured now because

the bulk of their unwinding in bonds has occured. They remain in business on the backs of gold carry ( just an opinion ) and they are not going away. These players are doing the business and will of the treasury in this respect. The most certain absolute in the markets is that the POG will not be allowed to rise, until as Steve Kaplan says things really get beyond the control of the government.

IMHO I add the government has nothing to lose by squibbing the books or non-reporting whatever money printing they are doing. I read a Y2K post that said the presses are all rolling round the clock to provide the cash demand for Y2K. Or is it hidden behind the need for all the new dollar bills. 1/01/2000 we will awaken to a new world where all the books will have to be wiped clean and martial law will prevail under a Pres. Clinton. So I don't look for the PPT to run out of enough money to

keep the market pumped.

I just hope I am wrong about all of this!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:52
mole (@Mike Sheller - 3 to 1 the bottom is in) ID#350145:
we had such a nice wash out in gold, silver, and mining stocks, with a great rebound. i don't think the shorts are going to want to do that again.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:51
Gusto Oro (Silver Barron--Elliot Waves...) ID#430260:
XAU below 50 around November 10th? These guys are idiots. --AG

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:49
cherokee () ID#343449:


who in the world would ever exercise out of the money
options buy a futures contract to take delivery?
who intimated such?

half a haarruuuummmmpppppph!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:48
GIBBOUS__A (@Aurator--THANKS---Are you a walking dictionary) ID#423380:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:37
aurator () ID#25490:
no worries, you crabby båstard. Look forward to seeing you again when it's time to come out of your shell once more.

Welcome to kitco, your cousins hereabouts include Mooney*. and moon. No doubt cousins Wax and Wayne will soon gather around the waterhole of kitco.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:34
Squirrel (Enough - before I start a food fight) ID#287186:
Back to our regular programming...
Hammering Gold.
{or does it hammer us?}

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:31
Squirrel (Mozel has passed the Turing test) ID#287186:
But obviously he needs to hijack a body and explore his world.
He knows little but the theories within his own neural network.
I shall disappoint him.
I stand by my comparison of a campfire and the sun
for the purpose of explaining radiative heat gain and loss.
But his ear does not hear for he likely has no physical ear -
only a cyberdisplay {and maybe not even that since he may be cyber
himself and thus gets these characters directly in digital form.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:25
Squirrel (2BR02B? - thanks for the Many Worlds urls) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Again the collection of knowledge, experience, wisdom and intellect on this forum is awesome. That is why, when I delve into areas I do not know well, I suspect {rightfully so} others here have understanding far beyond my ken. Thus, when I have my wits about me, I toss out ideas or ask questions so as to learn from others here. In turn, some may be able to learn from me for I too have areas where I am fairly well informed or experienced. It is a component of my personality that feels it is inappropriate at best and ludicrous at worst when others blather on without adequate knowledge or, worse, assume they know so very much when they really don't. Their ignorance is obvious {and sad} to some here - but most of us are tolerant of such ignorance and try to enlighten them by sharing references to more information. Those who refuse to be swayed by the facts or pretty strong evidence, and continue on in their ignorant blatherings deserve only one response - we ignore them.

The above also applies to pollyannas who dismiss threatening rumbles from Y2K, monetary and economic collapse, treasonous presidents, etc.
We ignore them unless they compromise our survival - in which case stronger action is warranted. Their freedom to swing their arms in abandon stops at the end of my nose. ( to paraphrase a cliche ) .

I too think Gold has not yet bottomed. It may drop much much further.
This is just a naive hunch. I have no wave analysis to predict this. My basis is my profound lack of confidence in humanity to do anything to save itself - which includes returning Gold to any semblance of common circulating monetary usage.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:23
mozel (@CompGeek @Squirrel @ALL) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
@CompGeek Sorry to be argumentative. It was me fruitlessly posting all along. My last post was not a joke. I suspect, but don't know for sure yet, that it has to do with a revised and refurbished legal tool of the Sovereign Beast which previously was known as debtor's prison.

@Squirrel Your comparison of the sun in space to a bonfire in the campground leaves me speechless. I am yet more mute in the assurance you will deny you made the comparison. However high I am in my own estimation, I am nowhere near the height of a squirrel in a tree.

@To those who appreciated my posts, you are more than welcome. Best wishes. Hope to post again someday.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:23
GIBBOUS__A (@AURATOR--Probably more accurate than Elliott's waves!) ID#432395:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:20
Przytula__A (Gibbous) ID#225273:
Just wanted to let you know that I saw Elvis yesterday at a mall in Nashville ( and he was wearing LOTS of gold! ) .

As far as my opinion on a bottom in gold: I like it's chances to go up from here, but that means it will probably go down! I.E. I loved Washington +14 points today at Minnesota! LOL

Oh well, either way, it should be an interesting week.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:14
Cyclist (bottom?) ID#339274:
FWIW The bottom is in for this cycle,to see a higher bottom
for next February/March,gold has to top at least 325 in
the second week of November.All said SA gold stocks will perform
better relative to their NA counterparts due to a rebounding Dollar
in '99

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:09
aurator (who do vodoo? ) ID#25490:

If the lion arrives at the watering hole before the gazelles, but after the elephant then the bottom is in. Otherwise, expect another lower low in US$.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:08
What a waste of time, all this moon landing talk! How about sticking with
the important issues, like is ELVIS really dead?

My gut feeling on gold--The bottom is definitely in. I think it will probably
linger now for a time, between 290-300, although a $10 spike up any
day now would not surprise me. Looking for 310 by the end of the month.


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:08
Pu'ukani (Mike Sheller -been waiting to log on at the same time as you) ID#22584:

Thanks for all your ongoing insight and humor. A question- what is a good entry point into financial astrology for someone who already has a fair working knowledge of astrology ( yes, I even can calculate charts without a computer )

Please e-mail me privately at


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:08
Savage (MIKE SHELLER) ID#290202:
I guess I'm betting that either the bottom is in, or, the final washout may
be too fast for me ( who must work, and cannot just watch the markets
every minute ) to get aboard ( in the manner that I would like ) . However,
if you could arrange it, I would appreciate a slow final dip wherein I could
load up with some dec '99 or june '00 options. Thanks much In Advance!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:08
Przytula__A (The Hatt) ID#225273:
A few months ago when gold had hit 18 year lows, I bought 10, Dec 300 calls for $180.00 each. My commisions cost me $350. 3 Weeks ago I sold the last of them at $900.00 each. My total investment was $2150.00. In two months I made $5780.00 on my $2150.00 investment. That is a 269% return on my money ( 1,613% return yearly ) .

I reinvested some of my profits in February calls. I hold 8, 300 calls. They cost me $380.00 each. My total investment here is $3320.00.
I like those kinds of returns and I like being a position to turn a little into a lot.

Could I have lost my money? Sure, nothing is risk-free. But my trading strategy is to focus on markets that are at significant lows or highs. When gold was at $270.00, how much lower was it going to go? $250.00? It could have, but I wasn't convinced. Especially when it costs around $200-250.00 an ounce to produce.

Anytime silver is below $5.00, I look to buy some. When it's near $4.50, I borrow money if I have to! Just so I can buy as much as I can. Why? Because it will go back up. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but eventually it will ( usually sooner than later ) .

It doesn't always work though. I lost money going long on the grains earlier in the year and took a dump on heating oil. Overall though, I have done well.

This is my philosophy and it works for me. Hope this was a little insightful. I just like making my money work, and options are a good vehicle for that.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:07
CompGeek (Concern about M*zel) ID#343259:
I've been watching the physics debate and I always watch m*. Over the last two weeks, its as if someone else other than m* has been posting using his handle. Admittedly, I have'nt been here more than 6 months, but his demeanor has always appeared to me as unanxious to get into a fray over trifles, but forthright in his ability, and understanding to convict thinking based on faulty assumption.

I am worried about his last post, as I am worried about all free-thinkers. The new m* is argumentative to a fault. His farewell message also strange.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 15:00
NJ (Gold) ID#20748:
The bottom is in for gold. Not so sure for gold shares.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 14:51
Boardreader (Mike Sheller: the BOTTOM IS IN ............) ID#20767:

The asymtotic low occurred 8/28-9/2.

Bob in DC

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 14:50
Mike Sheller (Kitco Konsensus) ID#348257:
Remember gang, the Konsensus Kwestion today is :


A simple answer is all we seek.

If you have not answered as yet, please do.

Thanks to all who have already added their welcome and respected opinions. It will be interesting to see what the bullish/bearish consensus is on this sterling and erudite forum.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 14:45
Mike Sheller (pennies from heaven) ID#348257:
there is absolutely no question that many many lowpriced juniors and even many very crushed seniors, will return 1000% or more within the next 2-3 years. This will be looked back upon as one of the great buying opportunities in an industrial share sector ( PM's ) in stock market history. All that's needed is Courage, Patience, Faith, and a place up on cherokee's shoulders to see ahead. Oh yes, a little cash to buy shares with wouldn't hurt either.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 14:43
The Hatt (Savage/ For what it is worth!) ID#294232:
Copyright © 1998 The Hatt/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Please donot get me wrong Savage I donot have anything against options it just occurred to me that some of these penny resource stocks could be used as a timeless option on gold just as you have suggested. One must be very careful in their selections as to avoid Cherokees end result that being toilet paper. Your selection of White Knight is interesting as I have maintained for sometime now that Nevada will turn into an area play beyond all description should one of these Juniors hit! White Knights first hole further indicates that they definitely have a gold bearing system although thats not to say they understand it yet! I might also add that this September when most of the claim leases expire Placer, Barrick and Phelps Dodge were grabbing up claims left and right! This further confirms that the big boys want all the land along the Roberts Mountain Fault. I also own WKR and should they hit a high grade intersection or more width we will enjoy the ride to ten dollars plus. If they do get earth shattering results keep an eye on CLN and CLH as they will get a great boost from the area play that will develop! Have always done well by being informed of the players in an area and while the attention is on the main player have been quick to load up on the others which always follow suit. Lets hope!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 14:36
morbius (HATT) ID#35757:
Please explain wipsawed out of your position

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 14:22
Savage (Oh yes........) ID#287223:
I finally broke down this week and bought some more junior shares that
I have been watching ( some touted on this forum ) . Dayton Mining ( DAY ) ,
Trillion ( TLNOF ) , Tan Range Exploration ( TNX.AL ) , and Golden Knight
( GKRVF ) . I also bid on Campbell Resources but ( it ) would not cooperate
by dipping far enough ( yet ) . Today's penny stocks, tomorrow's ten
baggers---I hope, I hope. All caveats apply, do your own due diligence.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 14:12
2BR02B? (Squirrel) ID#266105:

Q1 Who believes in many-worlds?

Political scientist L David Raub reports a poll of 72 of the leading cosmologists and other quantum field theorists about the Many-Worlds Interpretation and gives the following response breakdown [T].

1 ) Yes, I think MWI is true 58%

2 ) No, I don't accept MWI 18%

3 ) Maybe it's true but I'm not yet convinced 13%

4 ) I have no opinion one way or the other 11%

Amongst the Yes, I think MWI is true crowd listed are Stephen Hawking and Nobel Laureates Murray Gell-Mann and Richard Feynman. Gell-Mann and Hawking recorded reservations with the name many-worlds, but not with the theory's content. Nobel Laureate Steven Weinberg is also mentioned as a many-worlder, although the suggestion is not when the poll was conducted, presumably before 1988 ( when Feynman died ) . The only No, I don't accept MWI named is Penrose.

The findings of this poll are in accord with other polls, that many-worlds is most popular amongst scientists who may rather loosely be described as string theorists or quantum gravitists/cosmologists. It is
less popular amongst the wider scientific community who mostly remain in ignorance of it.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 14:11
DJ (Channels) ID#268233:
Copyright © 1998 DJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mike - My vote is the bottom is in.

Gold - IMHO, something related to gold is NAB. Its strength relative to the other PMs is very unusual, at least for the last couple of years. Perhaps it is related to the beginning of a flight to safety. Or perhaps it is related to the weakening of the US dollar relative to the currencies of gold buyers. Some of you ( such as Nick@C ) may remember this chart. It is not as valid as it once was, as I haven't updated the table defining the % of gold bought by the various countries. However, IMHO, it still has meaning.

I show gold near the top of an up-channel. This suggests that it can take a hit, but won't drop to new lows. In fact, I will be watching the action of silver and platinum closely. My expectation is that they both will drop to touch the bottoms of the channels shown. If gold isn't at the bottom of its channel at that time, this may be as low as it goes, and a new, steeper may be defined.

Silver - Seems to still be in a down-channel, and may see 4.40

Platinum - Also still in a down channel and may see 320

This is my best guess, and I have taken action accordingly. Reduced by gold portfolio by 75%. However, like John Disney, I am nervous. I can easily construct another set of channels that show silver and platinum ready to turn up, and gold near the bottom of a very steep up-channel and ready to soar. Anyone have a reasonably priced, slightly used crystal ball they want to sell? How about just renting it out for a day?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 14:09
Savage (HATT) ID#287223:
I do like your idea of junior shares being low-priced call options without expiration.
( although I have also bought some gold options for the leverage ) Let's
all keep each other informed of the great bargains available.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 13:58
Savage (CHEROKEE) ID#287223:
The ^VIX measures the volatility of the stock indexes ( as you know ) . Is
there a comparable measuring stick ( symbol ) for the gold options
volatility ( since, as you also know, volatility is the name of the game
in options playing ) there a URL for this monitor? TIAdvance

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 13:55
The Hatt (Cherokee lets be real!) ID#294232:
Copyright © 1998 The Hatt/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
How many out of the money option players decide to take delivery of the commodity! That is sheer BS and you know it! You play options for the leverage and at 100 ounce contracts how many players you know could afford to or would be stupid enough to take delivery of gold on an out of the money option. Furthermore it is pretty obvious at least it should be to anyone who has played options that the majority of the time you end up wipsawed out of your position! Not looking for an argument nor am I being sarcastic, just looking for the truth. Really donot care how anyone invests and I certainly donot need anyones dime never have never will! Venturing into the options game is dangerous and I am sure if we totalled all of the option moves touted on this site the end result would be red ink!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 13:45
2BR02B? () ID#266105:

Let's see, heads roll as UBS loses 3/4bil and Andy Smith
sings a new tune at a new job. I'd like to hear a little more
about that one, preferably from Mr. Market.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 13:40
Savage (!!!) ID#287223:
SPEED: I am constantly being surprised at the depths that many otherwise
upright and beyond suspicion will stoop, in order to pry a dime out of
my hands, or anyone else's whom they suspect may have one. ( I hope
you are right on this conjecture, and I certainly appreciate your thoughtful
responses ) Re: gold mining stocks; the name of the game may not be
magnitude of profit, but Control.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 13:38
cherokee () ID#343449:


thanks for the compilation of urls....


thanks for speeding-up the 52k modem
smokes @ kitco as much as the ssm since the upgrade.......

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 13:31
cherokee ( ID#343449:


because it is another avenue into the game...
and most importantly.........the leverage.......

options and futures allow incredible leverage. can actually take delivery of the
commodity...something N/A with stock certificates.... can take delivery of the commodity.....
what will the bearer of stock certificates take delivery
of when the valuations collapse? toilet paper.


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 13:24
Squirrel (Gagnrad - and that may be where baby universes come from) ID#287186:
They bud off from that standing wave and become a big bang.
As to the arguments that divine power made all the cosmic constants just right so that we could exist. There is also the premise that those embryonic universes that didn't have constants which worked would simply be eliminated - non-survival of the least fit. Evolutionary selection on a grand scale.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 13:24
sharefin (Subject: The Memo we Never Saw) ID#284255:
Federal Bureau of Investigation
    Crime Lab 2A-3356N
    Washington D.C.

    Subject: DNA Test Results for Clinton, William Jefferson.

    Dear Judge Starr,

    The test on the dress stain came back, but unfortunately the results
    are inconclusive. Apparently, everyone in Arkansas has the same DNA.

    Best Regards,
    FBI Crime Lab

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 13:19
Squirrel (Back to Gold - Mozel stated:) ID#287186:
Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 20:00
Just in case anybody didn't hear, you have to have people passing gold coin from hand to hand in their pursuit of happiness in order to be able to own land and other things absolutely. And have constitutional states.

And saying that it will just happen when needed is as much assurance as talking heads saying the Y2K bugs will be fixed in time.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 13:13
gagnrad (Blathering) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Pardon, but I couldn't help but add my own blithering to the blathering going on here. Is the orbiting golf ball gold? If so, how much does it weigh, or rather I should ask what is its mass? What is its volume and how much is that volume reduced when the surface is dimpled? Do the dimples have any effect in changing its ratio of absorbed versus reflected energy?

Let me leave you with another conjecture, gleaned from a book by that great philosopher, Tim Allen. The universe is merely a standig wave form superimposed on an unknown substrate. It is conjectured that one cubic meter of empty space contains more latent energy than is contained in all the matter in the universe were that matter to be obliterated to be made into energy. ( )

Go Golf!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 13:12
sharefin (Don't ask me why?) ID#284255:
For bottom dwellers.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 13:08
mole (@Mike Sheller re Ayn Rand) ID#350145:
as you can guess, i was never an Ayn Rand fan, so i never found out. can't even remember how to spell her name.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 13:07
The Hatt (Why would anyone buy an out of the money call on gold when!) ID#294232:
Copyright © 1998 The Hatt/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You can spend the same amount of money and own shares in a Junior producer? No time limit, no premium! The VSE is about to awaken and there are a number of attractive plays that make much more sense than playing options on gold. Take a look at CLN,WKR,CLH. All about to begin drilling exellent properties in Nevada! CLN has also just started commercial production on its Blackdome mine in Canada. Forcasted production of 3600 ounces per month! CLH has a joint venture with Placer and have just recieved one half million dollars! WKR are now drilling as we speak in Nevada. All three of these Companies are drilling in a known gold belt that has a reputation for low cost mining! Watch the leverage go to work with a rising gold price or a sniff of gold! Just one mans opinion......

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 13:03
Silverbaron (Yvan Auger XAU Elliott Wave page updated) ID#288295:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:58
Speed (Savage) ID#29048:
Copyright © 1998 Speed/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
To the best of my knowledge, no restrictions similar to confiscation have ever been placed on mining stocks ( or any other kind of stocks ) . The entire gold and silver industry is so small compared to the national debt, GDP, or stock market valuations, that confiscation isn't worth the time and trouble. Why would the government expend the effort to grab such a trivial thing as privately held gold? They already have 1.5 trillion in annual revenues, working control of the entire finance sector via the FED and designs on the 401 ( k ) , IRA and other retirement funds. Would you stop to try to pry a dime out of the hands of an ornery goldbug, if you were counting thousand dollar bills? Besides, if the government really wants the gold they will make us trade it for food and gasoline. bwdik

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:57
Squirrel (Nick@C, re: your 08:47 about high school physics) ID#287186:
I'm afraid most high schools now teach Mozel's physics if they teach physics at all. Even the teachers probably think Mozel is right. The dark ages are not coming. They are already here - in our public schools.

NTEOTWAWKI's post of Sat Oct 17 1998 22:14 should have laid this stupid argument to rest but Mozel is not diverted by the facts. HE IS BAITING US! Just like ROR used to do {and may yet do again}.

Now back to the subject of mining GOLD ON THE MOON.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:52
strat (mozel) ID#93241:
We aren't gonna read about you in the papers, are we? You puttin' your money where your mouth is?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:49
strat (Mike Sheller) ID#93241:
The bottom's in...I think. IMHO, if we have a new bottom, it won't be much below 270...260 maybe. But I don't think so. Once everybody starts realizing what a shambles the dollar is in, gold will move up. I don't think the Euro will impact gold as much as a prolonged weakness in the dollar. But I've certainly been wrong before.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:43
Grizz (Gold (and Silver too) ID#431366:
Going down, down, down, into that roaring ring of fire.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:41
Squirrel (Ravenfire and Gollum show that Goldilocks beats Mozel!) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gollum's url is much better than mine. Here it is again.

Ravenfire's post that the equilibrium temperature in our neighborhood is 280° Kelvin or 7° Celsius needs only translated to 44.6° Farenheit. The reason we are so warm down here is our insulating atmosphere.

Now regarding moon walking - how about
Metallic meteors under the lunar surface are very rich orebodies
much richer than most orebodies on this soon to be mined out planet.
To compare such figures for Gold and other PMs go to:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:41
mole (i can't believe it - are we next going to debate if the world is round ?) ID#350145:
i really think we should attempt to raise the level of sophistication of our discussions just a little. at this rate before we know it we are going to be back to discussing the wheel. come to think of it though, the world doesn't look round - just kidding. need i say that?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:40
Delphi (Bottom) ID#258142:
IMO, bottom is in, but might be re-tested

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:40
Savage (SPEED: Thank you for your answer last evening.) ID#280222:
Were there ever any restrictions placed on trading gold mining shares
after confiscation? Should we expect any after future confiscation? TIAdv

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:40
Bill2j (Bottoms) ID#259400:
The bottom is not in. New lows ahead.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:31
Speed (Mike Sheller) ID#29048:
Increased demand for physical, bullish prognostication from traders like RJ ( for 1999 ) , and great rumor chasing by Bill Murphy put me in the going up in 6 months camp . Short term, volatility will make every prediction right.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:30
Cage Rattler (Stay in stocks despite drop; chances of recession remote) ID#33184:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:26
Bully Beef (OH! OH! ...I knew THEY would come!) ID#259282:
I hope they are gentle. I have always relied on the kindness of strangers.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:22
EB (this way) ID#187109:
it will fly alot farther when hit by one of those moon walkers........¡ohmy!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:21
EB (shelldog ;-)) ID#187109:
Issa gonna maka da new lowz...

and I vote 432 dimples for the new golf/gold ball

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:18
Squirrel (Nick@C - thanks for the 04:55!! Now on to Goldilocks (the effect) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mozel's 02:43 only proved the depth and breadth of his ignorance!

In my rebuttal to Mozel's blatherings I forgot the Goldilocks effect.
We inhabit the orbital zone where it is neither too hot nor too cold
for a planet with liquid water and comfy temperatures for humans.
Before Mozel starts blathering again - the proof is that we exist
for if it was to too much either way, we would not be here to blather.
I agree that a spacesuited human, especially on a sunlit airless surface,
would have a massive cooling problem inward of Venus. Said human would also have a massive heating problem outward of Mars. Between said distances from the sun it is only a matter of balance. Rotating a spacecraft is largely sufficient to permit surfaces to radiate the heat they absorb by turning them into the cold dark side. The radiation is most effective when they are still warm. IF YOU HAVE STOOD BY A CAMPFIRE ON A COLD NIGHT YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN but Mozel ignores such experience.

I dislike long quotes when a URL will do - But this snippet directly applies to Mozel's premise that space is hot and his other vacuous arguments about radiation.
Based on Planck's law that all bodies emit energy that can be documented on an electromagnetic diagram. Depending on the length of the wave they can register anywhere from X rays to radio waves and everything in between. A bodies emission of energy is contingent upon the constituent
elements of the body, the amount of surface area of the body and the
surface temperature of the body. The body that emits the greatest amount
of energy is a so called black body. Using Planck's Black Body Curve as
a guide Dicke theorized that the Cosmic Background Radiation of the Big
Bang should be about 3° above absolute zero....Dicke and Peebles were confident that there instruments would be the first to detect this Cosmic Background Radiation ( Parker ) . At the same time Penzias and Wilson were busy attempting to measure radiation from the Milky Way Galaxy. This noise originated from cosmic radiation and had a temperature of 3°K. It seemed to be coming in from all directions and never fluctuated.

Enough already! As I said in my 23:36
Jousting with Mozel is a waste of time since he will never be swayed from his beliefs, regardless of evidence or experience {such as living on a cool planet} to the contrary.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:18
John Disney (Bottoms ..) ID#24135:
.. It is not in ..

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:18
mozel (@Just learned of an arrest warrant out for me. Don't know for what.) ID#153110:
Will be gone for a time.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:17
Cage Rattler (Bottom as measured in what ... US dollars ... South African rand ... ?) ID#33184:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:16
John Disney (Moon Questions) ID#24135:
1. Why did we go to the moon in the
first place
2. Why did we stop going there if it
was so easy and so much fun

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:14
Tortfeasor (Bottom Feeding) ID#37463:
The bottom is past. Long live the bottom.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:08
sharefin (Why not?) ID#284255:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:08
Mole (Konsensus) ID#34883:
The bottom is in, Murrstien caveats apply.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:07
Cage Rattler (Good Managers Work More and Pay Less Dividends ) ID#33184:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:07
Gollum (Frown. Away to do chores.) ID#43349:
Oh well.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:03
Mike Sheller (gold query -Kitco Konsensus) ID#348257:
thanks strat. I would like to put it out as a very informal Kitco Sunday Survey ( you can bring your own beer ) as to how everyone thinks gold will the Kitco Kwestion is...


Please answer simply, without humongous reams of reasons and justifications, or Ayn Rand/Ludwig Von Mises inspired tracts of philosophy. Reply by saying either



Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:03
mozel (@Gollum Now that you have invoked the magic word system all further thinking ) ID#153110:
can safely cease. After all, it was the system that put the man on the moon, wasn't it ?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 12:00
Gollum (@Mike Sheller ) ID#43349:
Long term, as long as the dollar continues to fall, gold has to go up.
Short term, it is harder to say, inasmuch as there is much manipulation in the markets. It seems though, that with options expiry out if the way for now gold will be released to float upward some more.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:58
strat (Mike Sheller) ID#93241:
It's hard to get a good read on the markets. IMHO, gold holds ranges where it has ( up to $300 or so ) for 6-8 weeks and definitely up in 6 months. I think there needs to be more changes in the currency markets, i.e., a devalued dollar, for gold to really move.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:56
Mike Sheller (gollum) ID#348257:
I am by no means a scientist. A metaphysician, perhaps, but a scientist no. Perhaps it's because I'm an Aries, but I usually run off under 90% inspiration and try to fit reality to the revelation. When it works, it's spectacular. When it doesn't, it's amazing how life goes on. I do appreciate scientific minds and the need to mistrust them as well. I trust most the kind of people I can most easily mistrust. I guess that's the silver lining. Now what about gold?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:55
Gollum (@Mike Sheller ) ID#43349:
I am not discussing whether men walked on the moon or not. I am just looking at some of the proofs being offered.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:53
Mike Sheller (so guys...) ID#348257:
gollum, mozel, guys ( or whatever ) ....what do you each think gold's gonna do medium term - like in the next 6-8 weeks? And 6 months? Really. I'm srerious.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:52
GIBBOUS__A (Test....test---*****TEA!!!!) ID#432395:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:52
Gollum (@Mike Sheller ) ID#43349:
A big part of science consists of mistrusting. Of course, it takes more than being good at mistrust in order to do good science.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:51
Mike Sheller (gollum) ID#348257:
re your 11:47 -give it up. I already explained THAT in my 11:32.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:49
Mike Sheller (expectorating on spectography) ID#348257:
Without being put into the I think the moonwalk was a hoax camp, I must confess I have always distrusted specTROgraphic studies.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:48
Gollum (@Mike Sheller ) ID#43349:
Any one of those will work.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:47
Gollum (@mozel) ID#43349:
mozel ( @Now I get it. The tea stays hot so long in the silver teacup because silver is ) ID#153110:
the real secret of the thermos. Gollum ancestor in cave: Move me closer to the fire. I'm hot.

Obviously you do NOT get it. The thermos is a system. It does not work without the vacuum, nor does it work without the silvering. By the way, one does not need to use silver to do silvering.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:47
Mike Sheller (mozel) ID#348257:
God Bless you for having so much silver. Way to go Moze!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:47
(TEST--TESTING*****----TEST!!!) ID#207179:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:46
Mike Sheller (gollum) ID#348257:
what kind of dessert do you reccommend for the putting of one's hand on a chrome bumper thereupon therein? Like maybe a nice Key Lime Pie? or perhaps a cherries jubilee?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:46
mozel (@Sheller) ID#153110:
Moving silver around makes me hot. And tired.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:44
Gollum (@mozel) ID#43349:
mozel ( @Gollum on Comet Ice ( if there even is such a thing ) ) ID#153110:
Check it out. Sun orbit is not the same as the orbit of a comet. I don't know, of course, how graduates of The Visible College Feel about this.

If a comet does not orbit the sun, what does it orbit?

The evidence for comet ice comes from spectographic studies.

Truth is truth, regardless of what graduates of The Visible College might feel about it.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:44
Cage Rattler (IMF: Fund Credit Outstanding by Country ... most interesting) ID#33184:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:43
Mike Sheller (mozel) ID#348257:
moving me closer to silver makes ME hot

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:42
mozel (@Now I get it. The tea stays hot so long in the silver teacup because silver is) ID#153110:
the real secret of the thermos. Gollum ancestor in cave: Move me closer to the fire. I'm hot.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:41
EJ (Hi, all. Just lurkin' today) ID#45173:
Now off for a walk on the moon...

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:38
Gollum (@mozel) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:16
mozel ( @Gollum What does ice on comets have to do with a man on the moon ? ) ID#153110:
You said the real secret of the vacuum thermos was silver; I didn't.

Neglecting that I said silvering not silver, yes, it is true I said that and you didn't.

That is a part of the problem. You neglect to mention all aspects of an issue. The thermos needs all of it's parts to function. The lowering of surface radiative heat transfer properties as well as conductive and convective properties. Silvering alone would not work ( put your hand on a chrome bumper or mirror in the dessert if you do not believe me ) Vacuum alone also would not work.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:38
Cage Rattler (IMF eyes Internet as transparency pressures rise) ID#33184:
Copyright © 1998 Cage Rattler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
WASHINGTON, Oct 18 ( Reuters ) - The words ``It's on the Web'' have become a mantra for beleaguered officials at the International Monetary Fund as they defend themselves against charges of obsessive secrecy and opaque lending rules.

The Web site,, already includes detailed ``letters of intent'' from some of the countries borrowing money from the IMF and reports about the strengths and weaknesses of more than half the IMF's 182 member states.

But that trickle of information may become a flood if the IMF board approves a string of demands from the U.S. Congress, which tied approval of $18 billion in U.S. funds to tougher lending rules and more openness at the IMF.

Congress' demands, toned down considerably from initial documents, ask the IMF to release key documents and minutes of its thrice-weekly board meetings, albeit with a 90-day delay.

The IMF must push borrowing countries to liberalize trade in goods and services and fight against crony capitalism.

``My broad instinct is that it will have some effect in pushing the fund to display and publish more information, as well as reinforcing stuff that they are already doing,'' said William Cline of the Institute for International Finance.

``But it's unlikely that it's going to be a real roadblock for the fund. It's not a radical or unacceptable change by any stretch of the imagination.''

Even before the tough negotiations with anti-IMF forces in Congress, the U.S. administration was lobbying for change at the IMF, to the chagrin of countries which said information provided to the fund should be kept secret.

In the last 12 months or so, borrowers have been encouraged to publish details of reform programs underpinning their loans, complete with timetables of how they will open markets -- something already mandated in the IMF articles of agreement -- reform fragile banking systems or scrap costly subsidies.

``I hope, as you go through this report, as you visit our Web site and as you attend the increasingly frequent briefings by fund staff that you will realize that the fund is moving steadily ... in the direction of greater transparency,'' IMF number two Stanley Fischer said when the IMF released a review of capital markets last month.

New IMF rules ``strongly recommend'' that countries publish fund reviews of their economies, and officials frequently refer reporters to the Web site to find answers to their questions.

Countries against the transparency drive say authorities could be more reticent if they know information will go to a broader forum than the IMF. Some say directors will not speak frankly if the fund decides to release minutes of their talks.

``Over the last two years we have always acted by consensus, arguing about things among ourselves and then coming up with a decision,'' said a member of the IMF's executive board. ``People will immediately become guarded, especially if information is going to be released within days.''

IMF officials agree the Web site could be the most appropriate vehicle to release the additional information requested by Congress, like the minutes, although they stress that changes must be approved by the 24-member board.

Patricia Kane, in charge of the Web site, said the page, received a record 1.47 million hits last month, up from 80,000 when it was launched two years ago.

``Every month seems to be a record,'' she said. ``Every time there's a crisis that probably increases the number of hits.''

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:36
mozel (@Gollum on Comet Ice (if there even is such a thing)) ID#153110:
Check it out. Sun orbit is not the same as the orbit of a comet. I don't know, of course, how graduates of The Visible College Feel about this.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:34
Cage Rattler (G7: Why are Germany and France the odd ones out ?) ID#33184:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:32
Mike Sheller (duhhhh to the third power) ID#348257:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
so let's see if this ol' shade-tree astrologer, huckster, and erstwhile stock promoter got it right now? You take out the silver lining from the thermos, put wheels on it, don't remove the engine, and it walks on the moon in a vacuum ( san atoms ) in a temperature of - 289 degrees.
Is that farenheit or centigrade? Did someone shout farenheit? God Bless you! All because the thermos is a system and it can't run without an engine. That's if you actually believe the government's hoked up plot to make us think there really ever was a thermos that walked on the moon.

Did one?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:31
mozel (@Gollum @ravenfire) ID#153110:
E.L.F. Infested Spaces The Journal of Possible Paradigms - Austin, Texas based multidisciplinary investigations into all aspects of UFO related topics. Includes *The Visible College* ( Earth's First UFO University )

If you can't get answers from NASA on the moon walk fraud, try these people. A Ph.d. from The Visible College can probably help you now that you understand that silver is the real secret to the thermos. I expect next you will reveal to us that your finger on the shutter is the real secret to the camera.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:30
Gollum (@mozel) ID#43349:
For any object in space the sun is only up on the side facing it.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:28
Gollum (@mozel) ID#43349:
I didn't say ice in space had anything to do with anything, but now that you bring it up it does make me wonder how hot golf balls have anything to do with anything either.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:28
Mike Sheller (mole) ID#348257:
Who is John Galt?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:26
Gollum (@mozel) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A vacuum is a perfect conveyor of radiated heat. Radiated heat propagates through space with NO attenuation from it's source to it's sink. If we were to consider the vacuum as an insulator, that is to say as a medium to retard the transfer of heat, we would have to say the vacuum acts perfectly as a non-inhibitor of radiated heat.

The heat transfer characteristics from object into space depend upon the SURFACE prpoerties of the object. The vacuum itself neither sinks nor sources.

A thermos would work very poorly is one did not inhibit radiative heat
transfer. On the other hand it works really well with proper atttention to same since the conductive and convective modes of heat transfer need not be considered.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:22
mozel (@Gollum @ravenfire) ID#153110:
@Gollum You and the authors of your link have a disagreement about tense.
@ravenfire The sun is always up in the space between earth and moon. I stated the ball would be hot, not how hot, precisely. But more than 100F for sure.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:18
Cage Rattler (Bulls Charge But Does Bear Trap Await?) ID#33184:
Copyright © 1998 Cage Rattler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Is this a tough stock market, or what?

Wall Street is just coming off one of its worst beatings in decades, but the market won't stay down. Smart, punch drunk or just stupid?

Some experts say the market's moonshot recovery is not sustainable.

For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 517.24 points at 8,416.76. The Nasdaq composite index was up 128.45 at 1,620.95. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 72.10 to 1,056.42.

Even the surprise move by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the second time in less than a month did not dramatically change things -- though it may have diverted attention from the 11th anniversary Monday of the 1987 stock market crash.

The cuts in interest rates, which came out of left field and sent stocks soaring, merely underscored the seriousness of the problems facing the global economy, as well as the need for quick action to control the damage to the United States, analysts said.

``Nothing has changed significantly in the global economic environment since the market topped out in July and went into a tailspin, and yet, this market is still straight up in the air,'' said Richard Smiley, chief executive officer of Union Bank of California Investment Services.

From its record 9,337.97 in mid-July, the Dow Jones industrial average has fallen as much as 1,900 points, bottoming out at 7,400 on Sept. 1. Trading Friday at about 8,400, the Dow is up about 5 percent for the year.

Is this the right time for investors to jump back into the stock market? No, says Smiley.

Stocks may be more susceptible now than ever before to a major sell-off.

``Markets do not go through that level of decimation and bounce right back,'' he said. ``What will happen when it drops 30 or 40 percent? Then we could get a full scale panic.''

Investors are making knee-jerk reactions to short-term events and they need to take a step back and evaluate the world's economic situation, said Smiley, who heads the San Francisco-based brokerage house unit of Union Bank of California.

``The vulnerability has been increased by the people's ingrained approach to stock investing,'' said Smiley, a 25-year veteran of the securities industry.

``Since 1990, some 90 percent of investment money has gone into mutual funds and those who manage the funds have convinced customers that all they have to do is 'buy and hold' stocks,'' he said.

Wall Street is also advising the investors that if 'they snooze, they lose.' In other words, the best strategy is to buy into any corrections, regardless of whether it makes any sense from a fundamental standpoint.

Smiley reckoned that investors may have developed a 1929-type market psychology that says stocks can only go higher.

The fundamental standpoint?

Stocks have shot higher over the last three years on constantly rising earnings. But the earnings story has now changed and analysts are slashing their profit forecasts.

Sure, boatloads of low-priced Asian toys and VCRs are arriving to U.S. shores, but the same ships are crossing back empty because the Asians can't afford to buy American products.

Analysts say the earnings for the latest quarter will be the poorest in seven years but the price-to-earnings ratio of the Standard & Poor's 500 index stands at 25, twice the historical average.

``A lot of first-time investors should not be in the market because they don't understand risk,'' he said. ``Their expectations of what stocks will do is unrealistic.''

Smiley sees some similarities between today's U.S. market and Japan in 1987.

Tokyo stocks were floating through icebergs and it was apparent the market was way over-priced. But Japanese stocks stayed afloat for another two years before sinking.

Tokyo's Nikkei stock index has not recovered and hovers at a 12-year low of 13,000 points.

``Even though we have sustained great corrections, the U.S. market has had the ability to go back up again,'' said John Geraghty at North American Equity Services, a consulting firm. ''The reason is that the cash flowing in has been greater than the cash flowing out.''

But the fund story may be souring.

For the first time since 1990, investors in August pulled out more money than they put into stock mutual funds.

Stock mutual funds reported a net outflow of $11.2 billion in August after an inflow of $19.53 billion in July, the Investment Company Institute said. It was the first net outflow of money from stock funds since a $520 million decline in September 1990.

Wall Street may be in a state of denial. There are fewer good earnings out there but investors continue to project into the future the earnings growth of the past few years.

Smart, punch drunk or just stupid?

Only time will tell.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:16
mozel (@Gollum What does ice on comets have to do with a man on the moon ?) ID#153110:
You said the real secret of the vacuum thermos was silver; I didn't.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:16
sharefin (Something for everyone ^o-o^) ID#284255:

Don't forget to scroll down.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:15
Gollum (@mozel) ID#43349:
Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:09
mozel ( @Gollum Correction: a vacuum has NO insulation value respecting radiation. ) ID#153110:
And NO shielding value either.

Exactly. And that is why the surfaces have to have their emissivity and absorptivity lowered. Otherwise their is unaccetable heat loss or gain.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:14
ravenfire (@mozel: just one thing) ID#333126:
before you misquote me, allow me to state that I'm refuting your point about a golf ball in orbit having an equilibrium temperature of 245F ( 280F, whatever )

i don't doubt that astronauts would need a cooling system in their spacesuits.

you are welcome, sir, to withdraw that crazy statement about hot golf balls.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:14
Cage Rattler (Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate) ID#33184:
We examine whether a link exists between oil price shocks and the U.S. real effective exchange rate. The results show that the two variables appear to be cointegrated and that causality runs from oil prices to the exchange rate and not vice versa.

Source: Bank of Canada

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:12
Gollum (@mozel) ID#43349:
It is about the engineering and design of a vehicle which WAS built, and necessarily includes references to design and engineering which took place beforehand. One cannot simply throw something together and hope it works. Even an automobile or computer required years of experimentation, careful thought, and much researh before they could come into fruition.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:12
ravenfire (@mozel: 245F 280F what's the big difference) ID#333126:
a black body in earth orbit facing the sun will have a temperature of 280K

212 F is boiling point of water which is 100C or 373K

all evidence I've seen so far points to a temperature closer to freezing than boiling.

I'll be back with the equations and the numbers.

sleeping on it. good day to you, sir.

go golf :- )

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:09
mozel (@Gollum Correction: a vacuum has NO insulation value respecting radiation.) ID#153110:
And NO shielding value either.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:08
Gollum (@cherokee) ID#43349:
I agree, it is one of deceit and lies by governments...and the maintenance of same....

Unfortuneately when one uses poor physics and invalid arguements it tends to strengthen the counter position. One ends up helping to spread darkness rather than light.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:06
mozel (@ravenfire It appears that basic science is your strong point.) ID#153110:
Can we have those temperature calculations again, Herr Docktor ? The sensors report our astros are well done.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:02
mozel (@Gollum Did you realize your 10:22 link is for a vehicle to be built and) ID#153110:
contains 1990's references ?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:01
Mr. Mick (Well, I guess I didn't miss much. Moze is still trying to ) ID#345321:
figure out how a vacuum works. Good luck. Bye for now.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 11:01
ravenfire (@chicken-man) ID#333126:
I bought some Nov T-bond puts at the close.

ahh... either gonna make some major bucks or lose that funny money...

turmoil, turmoil....burn and boil... may there be mass panic unwinding of t-bonds as currency markets go crazy ...

it's a critical week. chartists say the indexes ( well, the DJ and S&P at least anyway ) stopped close to critical levels. Interesting bet on whether they go up or down from here...

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:57
Cyclist (Yen /Dmark cross) ID#339274:
FWIW With a war in interest rate cuts between Europe and US,
a Yen /Dmark cross could be highly profitable.
Hedgefunds are mainly short Yen and long Dmark,unwinding of those
derivatives before December is still to come.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:57
cherokee (@....howdy.from.the.piney.woods.of.e.texas.......@..the.don.-the.fin.who.shares...) ID#288231:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee All rights reserved al...

gentlemen....the point is not 'whether man walked on the moon...'

it is one of deceit and lies by governments...and the maintenance
of same....

we know the to what degree? remember pearl harbor?
the us gov't had advance warning of an impending attack by the
rising-sun-ones....yet it was allowed in order to insure there
was an incredible back-lash, and thus total support for the cause...
how many american lives were lost at pearl on that day?

and what was the cause?

OIL!!!!!!! and control there-of......

they now aspire for control of the mind....and have the means...the media..which they control...

earl....vere r u?'re FROM the moon....tell'em about it!

'listen to your eyes....they are screaming.....'


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:55
Mole (astrology) ID#34883:
Am finally beginning to understand astrologers. They read Atlas Shrugged... How else do you deal with this soup? I still miss the Gong Show.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:54
Gollum (@ravenfire ) ID#43349:
Well, silvering is just part of it. The problem is that radiative heat loss or heat gain is a big factor for surfaces of high absorptivity or emissivity - - especially in Vacuum where conduction and convection plays no role.

Mozel is correct that vacuum is a good insulator for objects that have low radiative heat transfer properties.

Vacuum however is a pooer insulator for objects with high radiative heat transfer properties.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:47
ravenfire (@mozel) ID#333126:
Gollum was just advocating the use of silver ( right, Gollum? ) . We all know the secret of thermoses are in the vacuum.

give up your physics arguments. pick up a high school or college physics book and read the chapters on thermodynamics, radiation and heat. you might learn something.

arguing the moon walk was a fraud based on conspiracy theories is one thing. arguing against basic science is another altogether.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:45
Gollum (@mozel) ID#43349:
A thermos is a system. Like all systems it require all it's part working together to function properly.

Will your car work properly without it's wheels? Without it's engine? Without fuel?

Can by removing the wheels from a car we prove that it is wheels which makes it go?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:42
mozel (@ravenfire) ID#153110:
This ain't rocket science ravenfire. Do you cool down as long as you are next to the bonfire ? No. When you next open your eyes, check out the big bonfire that rises in the east and sets in the west. ( Ask a child to show it to you if you have trouble with this part. )

The figure was 245F and it came from satellite rocketman LGB who I daresay asked sombody with brains at his company.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:36
Chicken man (sharefin @ 100 Trillion) ID#341297:
Don't think people realize what 100 trillion is...20 times our national debt!!!!...the spring is wound so tight don't think there is a chance that it can be unwound without parts flying in all directions!!...main thing right now is to try to keep from getting hit by the flying pieces...

Just a thuoght...Chicken man...

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:35
mozel (@Gollum OK, Now we know the secret is silver, we can remove the vacuum part and the) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
thermos will still keep hot things hot, huh ?
It turns out that there is an even better insulator than foam, however: a vacuum. A vacuum is a lack of atoms. A perfect vacuum contains zero atoms. It is nearly impossible to create a perfect vacuum, but you can get close. Without atoms you eliminate conduction and convection completely. What you find in a thermos is a glass envelope holding a vacuum. In the figure at the right you see the glass envelope as a blue line. Inside the glass is a vacuum. The glass envelope is fragile, so it is encased in a plastic or metal case. In many thermoses you can actually unscrew and remove this glass envelope.

A thermos then goes one step further. The glass is silvered to reduce infrared radiation. The combination of a vacuum and the silvering greatly reduces heat transfer by convection, conduction and radiation.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:33
ravenfire (physics of a golf ball 1/2way between the earth and moon) ID#333126:
Copyright © 1998 ravenfire/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
initial calculations ( assuming a black golf ball ) indicate a possible equilibrium temperature of around about 280K

that's 280 Kelvin, not Fahrenheit. for the unintiated, 280K is 7 degrees C, much closer to freezing than boiling.

I will be checking these figures shortly ( they were initial calculations from a physics student ) . with someone better in physics -- some professor, if possible.

I ought to be able to do the figures myself but I don't have the numbers for the incoming radiation per surface area at that distance from the Sun and it's been a long while since I last used that black body radiation equation...

mozel -- perhaps you can show us your calculations? I really like to see how you arrived at the 280F figure.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:33
Gollum (What is the temperature in space?) ID#43349:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:30
mozel (@Disney) ID#153110:
The appearance here of dinkum thinkum explains to me how a perfectly good continent could be turned into a rabbit warren. Understanding the statistics on rabbit propagation must have been as challenging to aussie natural science as understanding how the thermos knows hot from cold is to one certain aussie downunder with dinkum in his thinkum. How many dingo with dinkum in the thinkum walkabout there ? Enough so the science of clean water is over the unders, clearly. Tell me, do they need an aussie with a Ph.D. to have their air conditioners repaired in Cantaberra ?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:29
Mr. Mick (Dropping in..............) ID#345321:
Was out on vacation for 2 weeks, guys. What did I miss? Anything important?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:29
Gollum (How a thermos works) ID#43349:
The real secret is in the silvering

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:27
Chicken man (Gollum @ chemicals of life) ID#341297:
Next time you are tempted to eat one of those little doughnuts with that white coating on ,stop and read the ingrediants.....Titanium dioxide...that the stuff that makes white paint white..same stuff that makes white roof coating white!!!...Don't think our God put that stuff on this planet for us to EAT!!

Just a thought..Chicken man..

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:27
sharefin (Chicken man) ID#284255:
To pop a bubble?

Probably an awful lot of nano-seconds.

Like asking what sort of sucking sounds do $100 trillion of derivatives make when they implode.

Shame we don't really have any case evidence on this one.
In the '87 crash there were basically no derivatives.

Unlike the Titanic, we're sailing through uncharted waters.

Seems the same for Y2k.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:22
Gollum (Rover thermal regulation) ID#43349:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:17
Bingo () ID#263254:

The Secret Life of Bill Clinton, is not about 'Clinton bashing,' per se but portrays the larger situation of an elite class -- Democrats and Republicans -- full of decadence, corruption, and snobbery, and stubbornly resisted by the common people of the United States.

AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD, a 10/26/97 Abbreviated Transcript of C-Span Interview and commentary on his book.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:09
John Disney (.. and wearing handcuffs ..) ID#24135:
for Nick ..
With all due respects .. that photo is not very
compelling ..
The list of 170 odd astronauts you offer is misleading ..
we're not talking about astronauts .. we speak only
of moonwalkers ..
.. think about it ... 1969 .. 30 years ago .. how many
times have we gone back since and why not

.. the next moon walker will be David Copperfield ..
and he'll go on the OUTSIDE of the capsule all the
WAY !!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:09
Gollum (Chemicals of life) ID#43349:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:08
Chicken man (sharefin @ Question--) ID#341297:
Great post on UK's sunday edition news...the question I have is....How many seconds does it take for a bubble to POP?....especially with this electronic age that we are living in!!!

Just a SCARY thought...Chicken man...

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 10:07
Gollum (Comet ice) ID#43349:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 09:43
Chicken man (Cage Rattler @ Brain Storming) ID#341297:
That is a class 5 hurricane type of brain storm!!!.....what is really scary is it could very well happen...This is the type of think tank idea flowing that this site is good at.... I hope that last thuoght makes cents to you... If we all use our brains together on this site, I think we will be able to see the traps that are being layed in the markets...

I see some real opportunities coming up with these wild movements in the markets....need funny money to buy real money ( gold ) ....

Just a thought...Chicken man...

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 09:39
Nick@C (A grave disservice to these brave men:) ID#386245:
Buzz Aldrin standing on the moon:
Biographies of 174 astronauts. If you believe mozel's moonwalk nonsense, then you also must believe that these men are fakes/liars/conspirators.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 09:34
powmain (BIG AL & little Robert have assured banks, brokers and hedge funds) ID#21275:
that the risk is great, but the Fed and Treasury have patched this bubble with their new paradigm supper glue.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 09:31

70% chance - silver and/or gold price will move up. ( probably starting in '99 )

Interesting perspectives?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 09:28
sharefin (Bennett: An International Perspective) ID#284255:
Assume that all of them work, you're still going to have countries -- and I say countries -- that will simply drop off the radar screen on January 1st, with enormous problems.

I believe the Year 2000 problem will be with us for at least two or three years after January 1, 2000. And one of the criticisms that my Committee has leveled against the Defense Department, for example, has been that they have started through their Year 2000 problem without that kind of prioritization.

For example, my daughter who listens to me far more now than she did when she was a teenager, has decided that she's going to fill her garage with food on the assumption that there won't be any food on the shelves of the supermarket as a result of the year 2000.

And then she turns to me and says Dad, why don't you do that? I say well, you know, that really wouldn't send too good a signal if the Chairman of the Senate Committee was filling his garage with dried food.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 09:18
sharefin (Nick@C) ID#284255:
I wish that were true.
But when the local white collars are saying we're going to get a lot cheaper, well?

Cairns, unfortunately is far away from the suburbs of Sydney or Melbourne.

Our local market's reeling from the Asian contagion.
It's been on a downhill trend for the last 5 years and slipping fast at the moment.

I stuffed up by getting rid of my rentals first.
Would be $50k+++ better off to have sold the mansion first.

But I guess hindsight's almost like investing these days.
It doesn't take long before you find out.

What does Alan Greenspan know that we don't?
Emergency surgery
In the next 90 days we are going to see cutbacks in staff and operations by banks and other financial institutions on a scale you have never seen before.
He knows more than the markets do about the scale of the credit crunch and the problems in the banking system. The global crisis has moved on. This cut was all about that credit crunch.
 Forecast for Monday, October 19, 1998
The forecast for the DJIA for the next three weeks is DOWN.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 09:11
kolorado (@Bill2j) ID#272206:
Copyright © 1998 kolorado/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Are you still lurking? If so, drop me a line at Seems a little odd that the doom and gloom goldbugs are stewing even tho they are finally about to cash in because the USD has tanked. Many on this site complain about AG and his manipulation of the US stock market. Who said that Wall street was a free market in the first place? WAKE UP GOLDBUGS! All of us that invest in PMs are automatically locked into the most manipulated market in history. When the US FED decides to inflate the world economy they may succeed in propping up stock markets for a while. SO WHAT? Gold will now escape and fly to heaven - they can't keep the CBs in line if there is no reliable reserve currency. China and Japan are already buying Gold. Stop shorting the stock market and start buying metal stocks!!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 08:51
Cage Rattler (Watch Tuesday and Friday next week ...) ID#33184:
FWIW, the timing models of Princeton Economics International indicate Weekly Panic Cycles for most major currencies. This will likely impact the stock market... In case you're wondering, a Panic Cycle is a model that tries to predict in advance the probability of an Outside Day ( or a day when the range is greater than that of the previous day ) . We see Tuesday 10/20 and Friday 10/23 as the key days to watch next week.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 08:47
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...with more than a high school knowledge of physics to speak up.

Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:14
NTEOTWAWKI ( @mozel , the never ending thermodynamic equation thread. ) ID#390337:
Copyright © 1998 NTEOTWAWKI/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Is there such a thing as an infrared telescope? Of course there is. You can choose materials and coatings ( Au, gold ) and layer them on low thermal expansion quartz or glass. These coatings will reflect the infrared energy with minimal absorbtion. These same infrared coatings are applied to metal surfaces as well. Plus the spam in the can is a cylinder and cone arangement which allows you to perform a rotate on the axis maneuver to not have a hot soak on any one area. A bar-b-que spit in space as it were. When the hot portion is rotated into the near zero degrees Kelvin background space ( pretty damn cold ) , most of the hot energy is reradiated back. Second subject is the insulating properties of various layers of material which have extremely low thermal conductivity properties. Take a look at that EL8 32 layer suit the astronauts on the Moon wore. Teflon/dacron/neoprene/mylar/aluminum/cotton, makes you wan't them to go back there so you can go long on DuPont % ) And get this, the helmets are coated with GOLD!

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 08:30
panda (Supernaut ) ID#30126:
Copyright © 1998 panda/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
First of all don't upload .BMP files! They're huge. Upload files in .GIF format as most browsers will recognize this and the file will usually be under 50 KBs.

I don't know what you're running for an O/S, but if it's Windows NT or maybe Win '98, try looking for 'MicroSoft Photo Editor ( photoed.exe ) ' on your system. Then copy the chart to the clipboard and and then paste the clipboard in to MicroSoft Photo Editor. Now, select 'Save File As', and chose the directory and file format that you want to save ( preferrably .GIF format, it's more compact ) . Then upload the file. See! It's easy! :- )

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 08:28
Cage Rattler (What sex is the Euro? ) ID#33184:
A daft question, but the French actually set up a commission to debate this issue. Language experts decided it should be male, and so in France it will be called le Euro.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 08:25
Bully Beef ( in Eastern Ontario. We have been poor and ignored since Confederation.) ID#259282:
The beast ain't interested in us.He ain't interested in no Cape Breeetonnner either. Maritimers and rural people across the country will be fine always. As for the cities who polititians must pander to for representation by population...most of them don't get it.. they can't support themselves.Cabbage at a premium...for gold. I don't really get the YK2 thing.How will it affect my wood pile ,my garden and my 10 foot long freezer? oops! Got generator? better.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 08:23
Cage Rattler (Want to get away from it all ?) ID#33184:
25 ACRE ISLAND only US$47,000! Beautiful Nova Scotia, Canada. Fax: ( 702 ) 432-0386 Email:

Advert in INTERNATIONAL LIVING Classifieds

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 08:22
grant (Oh, I see, the sovereignty of the nations is the problem, silly me) ID#432221:
One of the main challenges is to bridge the gap between ``the sovereignty of
nations on the one hand, and the demands of the transnation global economy
on the other hand,'' Rubin said in a speech to fellow alumni of the Yale Law School.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 08:18
sharefin (The King Kong of Y2K ) ID#284255:
Will Y2K Lead to a Global Flight to Quality?
Y2K could disrupt global financial and trading systems.

Financial markets are the central nervous system of the global economy; a vast, complex network of linkages among corporations, financial institutions, exchanges, regulators, depositories, and clearing firms. Not only is the international financial system heavily reliant on computer hardware and software applications for core operations, it is also dependent on continuous, real-time information flows. Failures in telecommunications or power networks could disrupt information and capital flows at critical junctures.
Planning in the Dark?
Y2K Implications for Global Telecommunications
In other words, when the next millennium arrives, the many undebugged date-sensitive routers, switches, gateways, servers, mainframes and embedded systems ( devices that operate with microprocessing chips ) interconnected to the world telecommunications networks may trigger erroneous signals throughout the entire system, causing connection slow-down and even disabling calls worldwide.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 08:00
sharefin (THE STARR-CLINTON GAMBIT:) ID#284255:
In a desperate attempt to save his own life, Bill Clinton entered
into a secret pact with Special Prosecutor Kenneth Starr. The
plan would be to use Monica Lewinski as pawn to maneuver the
President into a course of action that would result in
Impeachment--but a course that would, ironically, save Bill
Clinton's life and the life of his wife and daughter.

From his early days in Arkansas, Clinton has been controlled and
used by elements of power working inside and with the CIA.
Clinton has never been free from the hooks planted in him when he
was Governor. The long list of dead men around Clinton is stark
evidence to the circles of high inner power that have manipulated
him from the beginning of his public life. The piles of evidence
of drug-running and corruption are well known. With so much
knowledge of crime and corruption within the government, any
attempt by Clinton to try and escape his handlers would result in
the death of his family first and then himself.
Over and out
The risk business

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 07:57
Mooney* (@Cage Rattler) ID#348169:
500 points is no longer worthy ( historically or percentage-wise ) of being known as a 'Black' day. However IF we had a 500 pt. down day and PPT lost control on following day we might experience a historical deluge.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 07:56
Cage Rattler (Simulated bank crash: 6 months into Emu, and it's time for another crisis) ID#33184:
Copyright © 1998 Cage Rattler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
October 1998
Sigma triggers global meltdown
Six months into European monetary union there's a crisis, but this has little to do with the euro. It's a classic banking fiasco kicked off because too many people believed in one man's Big Idea. Sound familiar?

David Shirreff reports
Tuesday July 20 1999

Perseus Marconi, executive chairman of Sigma Banking Group, a E20 billion conglomerate based in Amsterdam, rides a limo from his canal-side residence to the bank's space-age headquarters in Foppingadreef. He is delighted with his London-based investment bank's huge underwriting of a E5 billion equity issue for Hermes, a UK-based phone and satellite company, not to mention a sister issue of E3 billion in high-yield bonds. For Marconi, this is the future, the fusion of banking and telecommunications into a single sector - Wnance and information delivered instantly to any point on the globe - and beyond!

Things have been looking better by the day. A thriving Europe has slowly been pulling world markets out of recession. Stock markets have made up a lot of the ground they lost in the second half of 1998. Even bank stocks are improving.

Marconi riZes through his Financial Times hardly glancing at a news item buried at the foot of the front page: Mobile phone scare widens. But at Sigma's oYces the dealing room has already been in uproar for two hours. The US market last night and the Asian markets this morning took the phone scare seriously, dumping any stocks that had been buoyed by mobile phone hardware or franchises and, incidentally, satellite communications too. Why?

Writing in the New England Journal of Medicine, scientists at Harvard Business School say new studies leave little or no doubt that mobile phones cause brain tumours. Moreover, a Slovak Wrm says it has developed a way of encoding short-wave transmissions into long-wave, allowing them to bounce oV the ionosphere - making communications satellites redundant. The sharp end of the telecom industry is suddenly blunted, at least as far as short-termist stock analysts are concerned.

0900 ( all times are GMT ) Marconi's PA hands him a slip of paper; he reads: Market risk report. Telecom shares fell 10% in the US and Canada yesterday. There was less reaction in emerging markets. US and euro interest rates were steady. The US long bond yield stood at 6%, and the German 10-year euro Bund benchmark at 5%.

The E8 billion equity and debt issue for Hermes has become unplaceable and is stuck on the books of Sigma and its subsidiary MHB Investment Bank. The bid price for the shares is down to E4.50, less than half the issue price. But that isn't the end of the problem. The market suspects MHB hasn't placed the shares, or the debt. The Sigma group also, just yesterday, made a Wrm bid of $2.1 billion for a mobile phone franchise in China. In the US there are fears that Sigma's insurance arm will face heavy claims from mobile phone users with brain tumours. Seeing the entire Sigma group as a telecom risk as much as a banking risk, banks have started to cancel interbank lines with Sigma subsidiaries Great Northern Bank in the UK and Rhein-Ruhr Bank in Germany. Great Northern faces an immediate funding shortfall of £3 billion which it has to meet by 1700 GMT.

And there's another concern. Sigma has been under attack by a US predator, Mega Corp, and its investment bankers, Wood Stanley. Two weeks ago Mega made a private oVer of E15 billion for the group. Marconi refused even to talk to Mega chairman Bob Richter - because of a long-standing personal vendetta. And there isn't much love lost between Sigma and Wood Stanley, which last year snapped up Sigma's star telecom analyst Max Smith after he was Wred for being too gloomy.

The markets are playing into the hands of Mega and Wood Stanley. The raiders don't even need to talk down Sigma's share price - it's happening before their eyes. Their plan is to take the group over, strip out the telecom business, and divide up the banking units for assimilation or sale.

A strangely familiar world

This is the start of what later becomes known as The Sigma AVair, a deliberate attempt to bring down one of the world's biggest banks. It's not exactly a conspiracy, but it turns out to be a severe test of the Wnancial system and the people who run it: the regulators, major Wnancial institutions, central bankers.

The banks are Wctitious, but somehow strangely familiar - old favourites Chemical Bank and Continental Bank are resurrected. Midshires and Anglia, Bayerische Kreditbank, IBN Flanders Bank and Crédit Général represent the big players of the world Wnancial system. In the eye of the storm is Sigma Bank, Dutch-regulated, although its major operations are in the UK ( MHB and Great Northern Bank ) and in Germany ( Rhein-Ruhr Bank ) . Apart from its expertise in telecom Wnance, Sigma is one of the market leaders in credit derivatives, with 120 banks signed up to its own credit risk model, StreetCred40.

At Sigma in Amsterdam, Marconi's faith in telecom/banking is unshaken, but in the engine room of the bank reality is dawning.

0930 Rufus Franklin, Sigma's chief risk oYcer - renowned as a brilliant but erratic rocket-scientist - is faced with a write-oV on the Hermes underwriting of up to E8 billion, but the cash isn't payable for 10 days. His colleagues consider illegally stuYng some of the securities into funds managed by MHB Asset Management, Sigma's $200 billion asset management arm. But Franklin's more immediate problem is the falling value of Sigma's telecom shares and bonds posted as collateral against various equity and derivative positions. The collateral must be topped up, but with what? Franklin hires US investment bank Fischer King to negotiate a block sale of Sigma's equity portfolio, worth E5 billion yesterday but losing value fast.

Europe's central bankers are already concerned by the funding problems at Great Northern Bank and Rhein-Ruhr. They also suspect that the Hermes issue is mostly still on Sigma's books. They ask UK and Dutch banks to keep their credit lines open.

The international banks consider their positions. Few are heavily exposed to Sigma. They are more concerned with their equity and credit spread positions in the telecom sector. But Bayerische Kreditbank ( BKB ) closes out its exposure to Rhein-Ruhr Bank apart from a two-week deposit of E250 million that it can't cancel. BKB chairman Eugen Toplitz, stung last year by the crash of newly acquired Mulhouse Brand, is predicting a stock market crash.

1030 The vultures are circling. Midshires Bank of the UK is interested in acquiring Rhein-Ruhr Bank. The maverick Sir Miles Lewis, head of Anglia Bank and once described as the most dangerous man in the world, loses no time turning others' distress to his advantage. He consults Wood Stanley on how Sigma will be carved up, and expresses interest in some of its investment banking activities.

Tony La Salle, head of corporate Wnance at Wood Stanley, advises the international banks to foreclose on Sigma, split up the business and auction it oV. The US money-centre banks are slower to see opportunities in the break-up of Sigma.

In fact, Sigma is far from dead and buried. Marconi won't go down without a Wght. Looking suave in his white linen jacket, the man who was once the darling of the UK stock market tells the press Sigma is still wholly committed to the telecommunications industry and is unshaken by the market turmoil. Chief risk oYcer Franklin - sinister and unshaven in a black roll-neck shirt - admits that Sigma holds pretty much the whole of the Hermes issue. But we've always said we would be happy to own the business, he adds unconvincingly, his eyes darting everywhere to avoid meeting others.

1230 European regulators are slow to coordinate their eVorts as the crisis builds. During a hastily organized conference call, Jürgen Stark of the German Wnance ministry takes the initiative: As government oYcials we have no formalized system of collaboration. He proposes that they should collaborate, but without making the fact public.

1300 Market risk report. Western telecom stocks have fallen another 20%, and a similar fall is expected in New York when it opens. Credit spreads widen on telecom bonds and loans. The US long bond yield goes to 6.25%, the German Bund stays at 5%. In Asian and European trading the US dollar has fallen 3% against the euro. The Bank of England cuts its repo rate by 0.25%.

Bank of England governor Eddie George is reported as saying that Sigma is solvent and a going concern ( in a subsequent inquiry George denies he said any such thing ) . Central banks and treasuries are pooling information and ready to do damage limitation - but they are adamant this wouldn't include bailing out Sigma. US oYcials read the situation diVerently. Treasury secretary Robert Rubin and Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan are angry the Europeans haven't consulted them, but they see a way to turn that to their advantage. Eddie's done two things here, Rubin tells Greenspan. One, he's going to do a bail-out. Two, this gets us oV the hook. We were told by the UK authorities that Sigma was Wne. That allows us to completely isolate this. I'd really hammer Eddie on this one. You tell him 'I'm not supporting that statement unless you're taking full responsibility'.

But Greenspan has one eye on the US economy and possible overheating. Wrong-footing the punters he raises Fed fund rates by 0.25%.

1520 Dutch central banker Tom de Swaan is elected chairman of the consolidated board of European central banks and Eddie George, not on the governing council of the European Central Bank, is invited to join. They decide to force Sigma to oZoad some of its positions. The long-term plan, says De Swaan, if Sigma is insolvent, is that we regulators go in and force the break-up.

Toplitz of Bayerische Kreditbank continues to give dire warnings of a crash in bonds as well as equities. The UK banks are in a dangerous position, he says. He also worries about how the German banking sector will cope when, as he predicts, Rhein-Ruhr Bank goes down.

1600 In the Netherlands, Dutch banks are anticipating the collapse of their biggest rival. It's a bitter-sweet experience. They don't want to be tarred with the same brush, but if Sigma goes down, says Jan Chambers, chief risk oYcer of IBN Flanders Bank, there will be pickings for us. His chairman, Gerritt Aesop, explains: We're not interested in buying Sigma, but we're interested in buying assets. He's Xabbergasted, however, at the apparent incompetence of his counterpart at Sigma: Everybody seems to say that the senior management of Sigma is foolish. How come someone who seems to have a reputation for excess is head of a very large bank? ( It's happened before and it can happen again. )

Let the market decide

Chambers predicts that the Sigma crisis could result in taking 1% oV the GDP of Europe. But, he cautions, the regulators should only intervene if they think there's a serious systemic risk. At this moment it's still concentrated in Sigma Bank. If it stays
that way then the market can solve the

Rescuing Sigma would be a mistake, says Aesop. It would be the Japanese/French type of initiative.

1620 The crisis isn't big enough to goad central bankers into a rescue. But they are concerned about the liquidity of Sigma's two commercial and retail banking subsidiaries, Great Northern and Rhein-Ruhr. European oYcials worry that informal arrangements between central banks and their banks may not be enough to avoid a liquidity crisis. Says ECB president Duisenberg: We want some form of agreement that short-term lines can't be withdrawn.

Eddie George is reluctant to pump £3 billion of liquidity into Great Northern Bank - more than its own capital. He tells Howard Davies, chairman of the UK's Financial Services Authority: I'm not a regulator any more. But I refuse to provide liquidity so you must shut Marconi down or bail him out.

In theory, none of these regulators or central banks is allowed to bail out a bank any more. European monetary union relies on the principle that no single country, or bank, will be bailed out. The European Central Bank is not a lender of last resort. Although the UK is not an Emu member the ECB has a legitimate interest in the liquidity of banks in London, as an important Wnancial centre. But there is no obvious deus ex machina to support Sigma unless the European banks club together to prop it up. And there's no sign of that - they want to tear Sigma apart.

1640 At Sigma, chief risk oYcer Franklin - a man of slippery, weasel-like cunning - is coming to terms with Sigma's pressing obligations. Although the Hermes proceeds aren't payable for 10 days, if the shares can't be sold, Sigma has to raise the cash, perhaps with a Wre-sale of assets or subsidiaries. Franklin tells his adviser, Brad Cohen of Fischer King, that the best candidates to buy Great Northern are the UK banks Midshires and Anglia, since they have loan exposure to Sigma of $2.5 billion and $3.4 billion respectively which they might convert to equity. Franklin is also toying with the possibility of temporarily parking some of Sigma's credit portfolio, perhaps by means of a three-month credit default option, to bring down its regulatory capital requirement.

1800 But European regulators aren't impressed by Sigma's attempts to dress up its balance sheet. Stark and other European regulators interrogate Marconi, who on his own admission isn't a numbers man. Stark tells him: We're very close to losing all conWdence in you as the manager of the Sigma group. We may replace you.

Marconi: Clearly we have an overnight liquidity problem. Great Northern's requirement is £3 billion and Rhein-Ruhr's is $1.5 billion. But we've just signed up Fischer King to act as our advisers to liquidate $5 billion worth of our equity holdings with minimum disturbance to the market and to pursue contacts with potential buyers of part of our group.

Stark: I don't believe Sigma is a going concern.

Davies: All the Wgures we've been presented with are utterly meaningless.

Duisenberg: It's not going to get better. Remember the insurance market is going down, Sigma is exposed. We need an independent administrator we can put into Sigma.

But it's some time before an administrator is found. In the meantime Sigma's value is slipping away, with interbank lines cancelled, retail deposits withdrawn, a falling share price, and margin calls and payouts on its credit derivatives.

2030 Greenspan in the US, mistrusting any Wgures conveyed to him about the Sigma crisis, attempts to ring-fence his own banking system. In an unprecedented move he forbids US banks to buy any Sigma assets. The US banks are Xabbergasted.

Hand of Greenspan

Can Greenspan request that? asks Cohen of Fischer King. Fischer King is not regulated by the Fed but this seriously undermines its eVorts to sell oV assets on behalf of Sigma. Mega Corp, the media giant owned by the aggressive Bob Richter, isn't Fed-regulated either, so feels free to pursue its campaign to destroy and then devour Sigma. Wood Stanley's La Salle, acting for Mega Corp, asks Chemical Bank to provide bridging Wnance. But Chemical chairman Rick Strange, primed by Greenspan, is cautiously negative: Why overpay for something [Sigma] that's fundamentally Xawed? What we're getting here are businesses that are completely bad. Investment banking business that is underwriting stuV but not placing any of it. Credit derivatives which are completely bad. Technology businesses that have completely gone wrong. I mean I'm tempted to just say forget it.

2045 Duisenberg and the European regulators tell the press that they have put in place arrangements to ensure adequate liquidity is available to members of the Sigma group, to avoid discontinuity in their business activities. He explains they will be reviewing appropriate longer-term action. Meanwhile, Marconi and his management team are still in place. But the markets continue to dive.

2100 Market risk report at New York close. Telecom stocks fell another 20% then recovered slightly. Utilities and broadcasting were also down. Credit spreads widened in all these sectors, triggering payouts on some credit derivatives. Rating agencies prepare to downgrade. The long bond yield is 7%, the Bund is 5.5%, and the US dollar has lost another 3%.

At the end of the Wrst day of crisis, the Wnancial markets continue to function more-or-less normally although billions of dollars have been wiped oV stock values. Banks can still generate meaningful value-at-risk Wgures and assess their credit-risk and market-risk exposures, although correlations between markets are slipping.

Marconi, who says he won't let the buggers get him down, is seen at the new production of The Damnation of Faust at Covent Garden, with Hermes chairman Jack Faraday.

Wednesday July 21 1999

0900 Market risk report. The dollar has continued to fall in the Far East, losing 5% against the yen and euro. Asian telecom stocks have been heavily sold and are down 30%.

0905 Rating agencies warn they will be downgrading Sigma after a severe blow to the banking and insurance group. Other banks with close banking relationships with Sigma are also on creditwatch until the impact of those exposures can be assessed, the agencies say.

0915 At Sigma the coVee cups and detritus of all-night dealing litter the workstations. It's been a tough few hours for Franklin and his senior traders, working East Asia for pockets of liquidity. Marconi, well-rested after his evening's entertainment in London, touches town at Schiphol airport and tells the local press: We managed to get overnight support from central banks and we're still in one piece.

When he gets to the oYce he discovers his chief risk oYcer Franklin has a diVerent view: We're going to die fairly shortly, Franklin says. Sigma is technically insolvent: Stocks have fallen 30% overnight so our collateral won't be enough. The central banks accepted the $4 billion portfolio at 50% as collateral. However, my view is that we're bust actually but not publicly. So we should merge with Wood Stanley and Mega Corp immediately.

Marconi won't see the destruction of his core company: I'd like to consider selling oV subsidiaries before merging.

Lewis of Anglia Bank has a secret meeting with Franklin who he judges is more amenable to a sale. He's oVering to buy 51% of Sigma's UK subsidiary Great Northern Bank, for £1.5 billion, plus assumption of £3 billion of its short-term debt.

Franklin ponders the deal: It was worth £5 billion and we're selling it for £1.5 billion which isn't a catastrophe. But the bigger picture is alarming: We still have an
E8 billion hole in the balance sheet. We've just sold our biggest asset, 25% of the group, for £1.5 billion. That values the group at much less than E8 billion. So this rolling programme of asset disposal is not going to work. And we still have a $2.1 billion mobile telecom franchise we're committed to in China. The one remaining jewel is MHB Asset Management which handles clients' funds totalling $200 billion. That should fetch a good price, but not in a distress sale.

Asian thunderbolt

0930 Memo to Sigma Banking Corp from Bank Austerlitz, its subsidiary in Singapore: We have been instructed that Ravi Asian Bank, Jakarta, is refusing to pay the $300 million leg of a spot foreign exchange transaction with Sigma in New York and is keeping the Indonesian rupiahs in part payment for outstandings owed by Sigma. Sigma's insolvency is suspected following its credit downgrade.

The $1.5 trillion a day foreign exchange market relies on absolute integrity of trades. Once a deal has been agreed and funds released for one leg of a foreign exchange transaction, the other party to the contract is bound to release the counterpart funds. There may be delays because of time-zone diVerences, but there should never be a delay because one side refuses to pay. Ravi Asian Bank's hot-headed action could cause a dislocation of the entire market as banks lose conWdence and seize all the cash they can to cover receivables.

Sigma in Amsterdam immediately reports the problem to the Dutch central bank. Eddie George and Dutch regulator Tom de Swaan discuss a contingency plan.

George: What we should be doing is creating a function for the FX and let the trades wash through.

De Swaan: We can say that if it appears there's a problem we will put in place clearing arrangements for FX contracts with Sigma.

0931 The London Stock Exchange suspends trading in Sigma shares.

1030 The European regulators decide to put an administrator into Sigma. Eddie George has other worries besides the FX hiccup: The thing that concerns me increasingly is the systemic risk that would come through if Sigma went down and took their credit derivatives book with them.

Sigma is a market leader in credit derivatives. It has its own credit risk evaluation model, StreetCred40, which is subscribed to by 120 banks. It uses StreetCred40 to price its own portfolio and to make bid-oVer prices to its clients, and to some extent to the market at large. That's Wne in normal markets. But Sigma's own credit rating has deteriorated and its clients are not prepared to take a risk on its performance, especially on large credit derivatives positions. Sigma's credit derivatives book, with over $100 billion in notional principal, is becoming a millstone round its neck.

Eddie George talks to De Swaan, Sigma's home supervisor: Sigma has a matched book of $100 billion of credit derivatives, I presume that's notional. On top of that they lost $4 billion yesterday. I would like you to get Perseus Marconi to construct some form of special purpose vehicle where the matched book would go in, or that we would get the banks who are involved in that matched book to novate, sign new agreements where they would cut out Sigma as intermediary. That way we would reduce systemic risk dramatically.

De Swaan volunteers IBN Flanders Bank: I'm going to suggest they do it, for a short-term facility fee.

1130 IBN Flanders Bank is happy to consider taking over Sigma's matched credit derivatives book. It would act as intermediary on each deal, providing a better credit to the counterparty than Sigma could, and charging a fee that would come out of any proceeds from unwinding the derivatives book. IBN Flanders is also eyeing Sigma's subsidiary in Germany, Rhein-Ruhr Bank, as a means of expanding its operations there.

Chemical Bank is considering converting Sigma debt obligations into equity as a way of getting some upside potential. Chemical chairman Rick Strange asks his regulator Greenspan, in view of his recent embargo on US banks buying bits of Sigma, if there are now any restrictions on us buying any parts of Sigma, because we're potentially interested in the investment banking operations - MHB Capital, MHB Investment Bank, MHB Securities. Greenspan raises no objection at this stage.

1145 In a private meeting with Sigma chief risk oYcer Franklin, Strange agrees a deal - conversion of $2 billion of debt into 30% of Sigma. But it isn't clear whether this 30% includes title to assets such as Great Northern Bank and Rhein-Ruhr which are at the point of being sold. Franklin, it's clear to Strange, is plotting the removal of Marconi, presumably to become chairman of Sigma, or what's left of it, himself.

At midday on the second day of the crisis international banks are seeing the implications of the global telecom sell-oV, its impact on credit spreads and equity prices, deepened by the fear that central banks are far from orchestrating a bail-out. Nor will the US regulators involve themselves in what they see as a European aVair. This is a time of recrimination not constructive eVort.

1150 The German banks are distancing themselves. They are angry at being drawn into a non-German crisis. Says Toplitz, head of Bayerische Kreditbank: This has begun in the Netherlands. Perhaps it's a European crisis but not especially a German one. So we as German banks don't see why we have to pay the bills.

1230 Greenspan continues to keep his distance. He says the US expects European regulators to rescue the situation. Sigma's problems arose as a consequence of a new European regulatory regime that is still at an early stage of development, he argues.

Greenspan explains why he blocked a merger between Mega Corp and Sigma: We're not impressed that our friends in Europe have a complete handle on the situation. We think that this whole euro adventure has taken oV with a number of teething problems and that some of the regulatory aspects were not fully anticipated.

US treasury secretary Robert Rubin adds his own analysis: Were it not for the Europeans and their sloppy thinking this mess wouldn't have arisen in the Wrst place.

1230 In a move calculated to irritate the Europeans further, the US Federal Reserve once again raises rates by 0.25% to head oV possible inXationary tendencies in the US economy.

1300 Market risk report. Industrial and emerging telecom stocks are down, and western bank stocks are following in a highly correlated decline. Other stocks are beginning to fall.

In Washington, chairman of the Securities & Exchange Commission Arthur Levitt can't ignore a report that Wood Stanley has been talking down and possibly manipulating Sigma stock. He confers with Rubin and Greenspan:

Levitt: I have to decide on an investigation into Wood Stanley. I haven't gone so far as to suspend trading.

Rubin: You'd better get cracking on the suspension of Sigma shares. We'll nail Wood Stanley down some other time. You as the SEC are more concerned with propriety in the marketplace. Are shareholders being hurt? That's the question. We've got a bunch of vultures here, at Fischer King, Continental etc. It sounds to me like Joe Ordinary Investor's getting screwed.

Greenspan: Bill McDonough [chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York] is concerned at the very large volumes of securities and deposits traded at Sigma's branch in New York. He wants to close down that branch.

Rubin agrees.

1311 Marconi gives a riotous press conference with Lewis of Anglia, conWrming its purchase of 51% of Great Northern Bank for £1.5 billion plus the assumption of the bank's £3 billion funding shortfall. Other creditors are angered by this side-deal - some are jealous that they didn't think of it Wrst. Lewis conWrms that Anglia has completed a $3 billion bond issue led by Wood Stanley, but there is considerable doubt whether, in these turbulent markets, the issue has been securely placed. Marconi also announces the sale of Sigma's matched book of credit derivatives to IBN Flanders Bank. IBN Flanders will stand in the middle between Sigma and its counterparties, to overcome the impaired nature of Sigma's credit. But Marconi denies that any debt/equity agreement was reached with Chemical Bank. Either he doesn't know about the deal between Strange and Franklin, or he's keeping it secret.

1315 The ECB cuts short-term euro interest rates by 0.25% and may cut them again within the next hour, market sources say. But it seems the US and European regulators are still at odds, with the US raising rates and Europe cutting them. Duisenberg gets Greenspan and Rubin on video link to discuss interest rates, and the coordination of insurance regulators. Sigma insurance operations in the US could draw the US into the crisis.

Rubin notes that insurance regulation on both sides of the Atlantic is somewhat fragmented: Increasing dependence between banking and insurance raises the question who would actually jump in at the same time on the insurance side? But he's more preoccupied with the dollar: We're going up, to try to defend the dollar a little bit. We're up half a point. I don't think we want to go very much further, we're in danger of overcorrecting. But we're not averse to further rises if necessary.

Duisenberg: We haven't heard what's going on inside Sigma's New York operation.

Greenspan: We're aiming very shortly to suspend their activities. We want to make sure that the integrity of the US banking system is not aVected.

Duisenberg: The US federal insurance commission will presumably close down Sigma's insurance business. I want to make sure that anything we do in Europe takes account of the fact that residual value will come out of the US insurance group. At the moment the US federal commission has to do it state by state; it's a nightmare.

1412 The US SEC says it has suspended trading in Sigma shares, at $3 a share, pending investigation of their volatility. The US treasury, on behalf of the federal and state insurance commissions, suspends Sigma's insurance subsidiaries from writing further business or paying out commercial claims, for a period of Wve days. Greenspan also suspends the operating licence of Sigma's New York branch.

1456 Press reports in London put Sigma's marked-to-market derivatives losses, apart from its matched book, at at least $5 billion and perhaps as much as $7 billion. There is some confusion about who is ultimately responsible for this paper loss, now that IBN Flanders is standing in as counterparty for some of Sigma's credit derivatives deals. But IBN and the Dutch central bank understand that IBN is responsible only for the matched book, not positions that are unhedged. However, it's possible that the matched book was only matched according to Sigma's own risk management software, StreetCred40, which may have come unstuck in highly volatile conditions.

1500 The US banks have now fully woken up to the opportunities, rather than the dangers, in Europe. They seek to stymie Wood Stanley's aggressive tactics and unleash a press campaign against the investment bank's alleged talking-down and manipulation of the Sigma stock price.

Tony Ringo, chief financial oYcer at Continental Bank, conWdes to US regulators: The way we read it, we are the big pockets in town. We've got $50 billion in capital. Chemical has $2 billion exposure to Sigma, we have $800 million. We think there's an opportunity to convert it into equity in Sigma. It's an opportunity to take a position in Europe in the telecom sector. It's good for US business, and good for us if we can do it. The downside is that instead of the stock rebounding it may continue to slide. We're not going to give them an open-ended guarantee.

Rubin: My biggest concern is that we get stuck with you and Chemical between you taking over 50% - eVectively we've bought the problem oV the Dutch.

Ringo: If the worst came to the worst, Chemical and Continental could merge.

Rubin: Be careful because then Duisenberg will happily stuV you with all this. Just like the US before Pearl Harbour, US regulators are determined not to be drawn into what they see as a European crisis.

But the foreign-exchange problem may soon engulf them all:

1520 Memo from Sigma New York to Sigma Amsterdam: We're still waiting for the $300 million from Ravi Asian Bank through the CHIPS system. If it doesn't appear we may indeed have liquidity problems. There are reports from the far east that Ravi Asian may not open for business tomorrow.

European oYcials now fear a systemic crisis. They consider putting in clearing functions for foreign exchange, acting as a provider of liquidity for held-up trades. They also consider a worst case if Sigma goes bust. The ideas Xy around. They have obviously done no collective contingency planning as European central banks - the principle of no-bail-out being so Wrmly part of the Maastricht Treaty.

De Swaan: Do we enter into a risk-sharing arrangement between various central banks?

Duisenberg: We could announce that, on the assumption that the overall exposure is, say, E10 billion for the sake of argument, the Europeans will collaborate.

Duisenberg: They're telling us there is systemic risk, what's the reason for that?

De Swaan: The systemic risk is actually more about uncertainty.

Stark: Would the European central banks be so sanguine about seeing banks go under? Surely they wouldn't.

De Swaan: No-one is going to go under.

Duisenberg: We need to get the Americans in. I think we're getting out of control. [enter Marconi and Franklin]

Marconi: The good news is we've just struck a deal with IBN Flanders Bank to sell oV Rhein-Ruhr Bank for E2.5 billion. But ...

Franklin: ...we have a credit derivatives portfolio which is under water to the tune of $13 billion. This is in addition to the matched book.

George: We've got the classic problem, do we just close down the book? We don't really know the true position.

De Swaan: We wouldn't provide liquidity to them unless the government are willing to stump up the taxpayers' funds, that's it.

Duisenberg: Then we concentrate on the banks that might be aVected. We provide them with support. We feel more conWdent in stopping the line there than we do about stopping the line with Sigma.

Marconi protests that he has £1.5 billion cash from the sale to Anglia. But that cuts no ice with the regulators. It's clear to everyone but himself that this is the end of the line for him.

1648 The Dutch central bank moves to quash rumours that it is providing support to IBN Flanders Bank to take over Sigma's matched credit derivatives book: We're just taking something that's not a problem and ring-fencing it, says a spokesman. Sigma has other credit derivatives positions where it maintains principal exposure.

Meanwhile IBN Flanders has placed a bid for Rhein-Ruhr, offering $2.5 billion, which they estimate at 1.1 times net book value. Tony Ringo, CFO of Continental, calls Aesop. He's heard IBN wants to do a Wnancing, in highly volatile conditions.

Aesop: We wouldn't mind consolidating some of the cash position and want to consider raising say $500 million. I think that's as much as the market would tolerate now.

Ringo: What's your exposure to Sigma?

Aesop: $1.5 billion. We've written down to zero all our telecom.

Ringo: It could be helpful to you perhaps if you were able to sell something. We'd pay you $1.5 billion for a package of the telecoms equity and the Sigma loan.

Aesop: We'll come back to you.

1837 Showing he's right on the ball, Sir John Furniss, chairman of Midshires Bank, tells a reporter he's about to make a bid for Rhein-Ruhr Bank, despite reports that IBN Bank has already bought it.

Bayerische Kreditbank is anxious to spoil these foreign bids. BKB's chief risk oYcer Chuck Rivers plots with his chairman Toplitz: We have to create a crisis that decreases the value of Rhein-Ruhr and anybody who's not there in the German system will run a mile. We are then the only buyers. Toplitz spreads a rumour of possible fraud in Rhein-Ruhr's mortgage portfolio.

1700 Firm complaints about the aggressive tactics of Wood Stanley, as it tries to soften up Sigma for a potential takeover by Mega Corp, have reached the ear of SEC chairman Arthur Levitt. He announces an investigation. But the damage has already been done. The dive in Sigma's reputation is now costing it liquidity everywhere, especially in the FX market:

1800 Memo from Sigma to the Dutch central bank: Ravi Asian claims that Sigma is in default and that it's seizing rupiah funds from a foreign exchanges transaction to cover other exposures. Banks worldwide are reacting by cancelling payments to Sigma and reviewing their exposure. Correspondent banks have seized nostro accounts. Sigma appeals for liquidity to the Dutch central bank, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bundesbank to tide it over. Sigma is haemorrhaging.

1830 There is a severe risk of dislocation in the foreign exchange markets unless regulators and central banks worldwide cooperate on a standstill and rescue. Hasty calls by central banks establish that the major banks have forex receivables from Ravi Asian Bank totalling $16.2 billion, with IBN Flanders and Crédit Général the most heavily exposed ( $3.3 billion and $3 billion respectively ) .

1920 At a Sigma press conference the media are howling for blood, probably Marconi's. He's jeered and hissed as he takes the rostrum to make what must be his resignation speech. Marconi admits: I have been destroyed by numbers. I shall go oV and start other business ... you will hear from me again. An administrator is appointed.

Chief risk oYcer Franklin, determined to stay on the technical high ground, defends the credit derivatives model StreetCred40 which has produced a paper loss on the Sigma portfolio of at least $4 billion: The model you are referring to has been bought by 120 institutions, and there have been no prior complaints about its operations or its ability to model credit risks. There have been suggestions that the numbers it throws up are consistently diVerent from all the other models on the street. We are not in a position to comment on that because we have only run our model on our own portfolio. As you know most banks have option pricing models, value-at-risk models and so on. Many use the same underlying assumptions but apply them diVerently and they get diVerent results. [laughter and catcalls from the auditorium] StreetCred40 does apparently give results diVerent from CreditMetrics and CreditRisk+. But on the other hand [says Franklin in desperation] no one can say that our model is wrong! The conference ends in uproar.

2100 Market risk report. Stock markets are in free fall, with telecom and banking stocks leading in western as well as emerging markets. There's no safe haven except the Swiss franc and gold.

At the end of day two, Sigma is no longer a going concern, although an administrator has been appointed. The foreign exchange markets are in turmoil, but central banks appear to be stepping into the breach with liquidity where it is needed. The hyenas are tearing up Sigma. A Werce debate rages over credit derivatives and the models used to price them.

Thursday July 22 1999

0900 Market risk report. The Singapore and Hong Kong stock markets suspend trading. Tokyo is hovering on the brink. In London and elsewhere in Europe traders expect a 60% drop.

0915 The Bank of England announces unequivocal support to ensure Asian defaults on FX payments do not spiral into a systemic market crisis.

0917 European officials are baZed by the markets. They are wondering how to intervene, and where. They conclude that stabilizing the equity markets is the key to pre-empting a meltdown.

Duisenberg: These equity markets are behaving a bit like FX markets now. They're going down because people are shorting. The minute they realize there's some money going in the other side to call their bluV.

1030 The European oYcials decide to set up discount facilities with banks to encourage investment and pension funds to buy equities, and for companies to buy back their own shares.

This is the situation in the middle of day three. Sigma is contained, central banks have intervened heavily, and are prepared to intervene some more; foreign exchange markets are functioning in slow motion; equity markets are being supported by new credit lines from banks, pre-empting the need for over-extended investors to raise cash from parts of the market that are still liquid. But the situation is precarious. The banking system has been tempted to extend credit to the equity markets way beyond normal banking prudence. If equity markets don't bounce back, who will pick up the pieces?

1400 Press release. Dr Mervyn Schmidt, dean of Harvard Medical School, announces to Bloomberg that Dr Wong Lok Suk and Dr Okie Moon have been arrested and charged with fraud. They were the authors of the article published in last week's New England Journal of Medicine alleging that intracranial tumours were associated with even modest use of mobile phones. Wong and Moon are found to have built up substantial short positions in mobile phone stocks, using a $150 million line of credit from Ravi Asian Bank. There is no evidence for tumour incidence, says professor Schmidt.

Bitter conclusion

Can you put the toothpaste back in the tube? After the market mayhem, and the collapse of Sigma, the losses of the last 48 hours can't be reversed. A bubble has burst, and the management of a major bank was removed. Perseus Marconi, visionary though he is, won't get his old job back, and Sigma is dead or dying.

But, for bankers and regulators, The Sigma AVair is a reminder that markets tend to grab information and trade on it before examining whether it's good or bad.

In this case governments and Wnancial regulators were quick - perhaps too quick - to intervene to limit the consequences of imprudent banking. Sigma had hardly experienced its Wrst funding problems and been hit by adverse market rumours before the regulators and central bankers were all over it, pumping in liquidity and encouraging its dismemberment and sale.

That is probably symptomatic of today's banking landscape, in which every institution and its components are a target for acquisition or merger: good for pre-empting systemic crises, bad for building businesses and corporate identity.

Sigma went down, but its retail subsidiaries didn't. Nor did the Wnancial system, despite a foreign exchange crisis, a stock market crash, and a surprising spat between US and European regulators, as the European System of Central Banks learnt to Xex its muscles. With extraordinary generosity, European central banks subsidized banks to buy shares and stabilize the stock markets.

Would governments in real life have pumped in so much cash? Probably. Does that encourage banks - and investors - to take foolish risks? Draw your own conclusions.

The events and dialogue above were compiled from tape-recordings, press releases and notes made by the players. This material is entirely Wctitious and in no way represents the behaviour of real-world bankers or government oYcials, despite the use of some real names.

Many thanks to PA Consulting Group, the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation, JP Morgan [for the risk room], Cityforum and Crisisplay International.

Virtual battle
In the leafy grounds of an 18th-century mansion in Kent, a month before Russia's August collapse, three dozen Wnancial experts gather to rehearse a world Wnancial meltdown. Forgoing the golf course, the lake, the tennis courts, gym and swimming pool, they settle down to pit their wits against the worst that disaster-monger David ShirreV can throw at them.

This is The Sigma AVair, a virtual banking crisis designed to test players and the system to their limits. The Wnance professionals, playing bank chiefs and risk managers, central bankers and government oYcials, each with their own agenda and set of information, must live and Wght through three days rolled into one. They are supported by arbitrators and controllers, and goaded by journalists, including a Wlm-crew from Reuters Television.

The battleWeld is a suite of private rooms with telephones from which each interest group can communicate, arrange meetings and brief the press. There are two plenary rooms for press conferences, refreshments and gossip. PA Consulting Group's management centre at Sundridge Park has become a microcosm of the world Wnancial system. Rooms and corridors become countries and Xight paths.

Sigma is a large, diversiWed commercial, investment banking and insurance group, based in Amsterdam, with a capital of E20 billion. Sigma chairman Perseus Marconi is obsessed with telecommunications, whose future he predicts will be ever more closely linked to that of Wnance. His banking group, with major operations in London and New York, has many debt and equity participations in the telecom sector.

A clutch of Wctitious banks represent the world Wnancial system. Each bank is staVed with an executive chairman and a chief Wnancial or chief risk oYcer. Other players act as leading regulators such as US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, treasury secretary Robert Rubin, Bank of England governor Eddie George and European Central Bank president Wim Duisenberg. A press corps is there to disseminate information, or disinformation. There is a risk room, where banks can learn about their market-risk and credit-risk positions - if they ask the right questions. If the markets are liquid enough, they can trade. A team of arbitrators and controllers tries to keep the game on the rails while it goes through three trading days, each day compressed into a three-hour period by means of a fast-running clock. Once the initial conditions are set, the system is on its own, and it is up to the players and the press to save the world, or put themselves Wrst and risk driving it to oblivion.

Dramatis personae

Sigma Banking Corporation

Perseus Marconi - chairman and CEO

Rufus Franklin - chief risk oYcer

Wendy Nelson - in-house lawyer

Rhein-Ruhr Bank:

Rainer Eggers - executive chairman

Great Northern Bank:

Sir Roy McTaggart - chairman

UK banks

Midshires Bank:

Sir John Furniss - chairman

Harry Duggan - chief risk oYcer

Anglia Bank:

Sir Miles Lewis - chairman

Rupa Fanshaw - chief Wnancial oYcer

Other European banks

IBN Flanders Bank:

Gerritt Aesop - chairman

Jan Chambers - chief risk oYcer

French Banks

Crédit Général:

Charles Lemaitre - chairman

Yvonne LaWtte - chief Wnancial oYcer

German banks

Bayerische Kreditbank:

Eugen Toplitz - executive chairman

Chuck Rivers - chief risk oYcer

US banks

Chemical Bank:

Rick Strange - chairman

Lynn Darke - chief Wnancial oYcer

Continental Bank:

Bill Speke - chairman

Tony Ringo - chief Wnancial oYcer

Wood Stanley:

Dick Fletcher - chairman

Tony La Salle -head of corporate Wnance

Fischer King:

John Friend - chairman

Brad Cohen - chief Wnancial oYcer

US officials

Alan Greenspan - US Federal Reserve

Arthur Levitt - SEC chairman

Robert Rubin - treasury secretary

UK officials

Howard Davies - chairman FSA

Eddie George - Bank of England governor

Alistair Darling - chief secretary to treasury

German officials

Wolfgang Artopoeus - president of BAKred

Jürgen Stark - state secretary, federal Wnance ministry

Hans Tietmeyer - Bundesbank president

Other European officials

Jean-Claude Trichet - governor, Banque de France

Tom de Swaan - director, Nederlandse Bank

Multilateral officials

Wim Duisenberg - president European Cental Bank

Michel Camdessus - managing director IMF

Andrew Crockett - general manager BIS


Hugo Chew - chairman, Ravi Asian Bank

Bob Richter - chairman, Mega Corp

Karl Bellwether - High Hedge Capital

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 07:25
Cage Rattler (Sakakibara: World in crisis action) ID#33184:
Eisuke Sakakibara, vice minister for international affairs at Japan's Ministry of Finance, said this morning the world economy is in a critical condition as a credit crunch is spreading across nations. Sakakibara warned problems in Japan and Brazil could ignite a fire causing a worldwide economic meltdown, and to prevent this kind of gloomy scenario from becoming reality, Japan needs quickly inject public funds into banks

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 06:53
Cage Rattler (Black Monday 19 Oct 1987: Dow Jones falls over 500 points) ID#33184:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 06:05
Gianni Dioro (Banks, Hedge Funds & the Fed) ID#384350:
The Sunday Times reports,

The collapse of LTCM has opened up a can of worms as American banks admit to billions of dollars of loans to risky hedge-fund operator
HUGE hedge-fund losses are pummelling American banks.

The latest victim, BankAmerica, said last week it was writing down $372m ( £219m ) of loans to DE Shaw, a troubled New York investment bank and hedge-fund operator.

The extent of LTCM's problems were not known until after the bailout. As other hedge funds have collapsed or failed to meet margin calls from lenders, the banks have tightened credit to everyone. Just how serious the situation has become was shown on Thursday when the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter point for the second time in 16 days. It said the move was necessary to avert a liquidity crunch that could drive America into recession.

A further interest-rate cut is expected by some analysts when the Fed's open-market committee next meets on November 17.

Another hedge-fund casualty last week was Ellington, which was forced to sell $1.5 billion of mortgage-backed securities after margin calls from its bankers.

But the biggest fear is that the banks themselves may be hiding huge derivative losses. Shaw insists its venture with BankAmerica was not a hedge fund but a proprietary trading desk for the bank itself.

One prominent hedge-fund manager says: The proprietary trading desks of the brokerage firms and banks are the biggest hedge funds of all. If one of them goes bust, we are all in the soup.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 05:28
Gianni Dioro (The Sunday Times (London) says European Central Banks Intervened to Support $) ID#384350:
In a small article on the front page of the business section, The Sunday Times reports, European central banks have been SECRETLY INTERVENING in the currency markets to prop up the dollar and prevent a fall in the greenback's value from disrupting the value from disrupting the start of the single currency.

But there are worries that Alan Greenspan's cheap-money policy and fears that an American credit crunch will lead to recession will send the dollar tumbling, causing havoc in Europe...Analysts believe there will be two more quarter-point cuts before the end of the year, and more reductions, to 4% or below, early next year.

The dollar has dropped sharply against the yen...but the fall against European currencies would have been sharper, analyst say, if not for central bank intervention.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 05:17
Nick@C (Sharefin) ID#386245:
You may one day consider yourself fortunate that you have not yet sold your property. You know what my BEST investment was for the past week Aussie $$. UP 10%. You know what my WORST investment was in the past week PHYSICAL!! Down 40 bucks!! I am tempted to just sit in cash for a while. Now what is 10% times 52

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 05:07
sharefin (For those who like to tinker - Y2k proof? Keep those beers cool?) ID#284255:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 05:01
sharefin (Nick@C) ID#284255:
You mean Laird futures?
Is that like a downpayment on my future prodgeny? ^o-o^
I just have to agree with this comment.

I am in awe of the power of the market manipulators. Whatever else you may think of Greenspam, Rub-it-in and the 'Weenie-in-Chief', you must admit that their manipulative powers are awesome. These markets are on a string.

Yes, they are playing a politcal market here.
Just ask Oldman.
And will endeavour to hold it till after the elections.

It amazes me to see the depth of damage done over LTCM.
And AG had his work cut out trying to stabilize these markets.

Well this latest blip last week makes me feel that an even bigger one has just gone belly up.

AG might have deep pockets, but it seems all hell is about to break loose.

Local lawyers, accountants, and bank managers are warning their clients to get out of shares and property.
Reckon we're in for a depression like the 30's.

Makes me wonder what they know?
They must have just received a major learning curve.
Normally these local guys have blinkers on.

Us here on Kitco may know better.
But those dudes coming out with that info spooks me muchly.


I love plagarising ( :- ) ) )

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 04:55
Nick@C (Squirrel) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It is nice to see some sanity returning to this site. The Joseph Goebbels acolyte will roast you for this post. I am pleased to roast with you for the sake of the truth. The physicists on this site have still got their fingers up their bums, so not much support as yet. Some posters on this site do not listen to evidence or reason, especially if it does not conform to their conspiratorial theories. Darwin had to put up with similar taunts. Cheers, Nick
Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:36
Squirrel ( gagnrad - in the story they did try torching off the methane ) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Regarding Mozel's radiationless arguments...
Though he may have some wisdom on some subjects - maybe even Gold...
I've been ignoring his blatherings about moonwalk fraud & radiation.
You cause me to go back and figure out what he was trying to say.

Before I start - Let's ask Prof. Mozel one question.
Why is Earth not a parched, toasted surface at a few hundred degrees Celsius?
Because it has reached an equilibrium temperature which radiates heat ( as on clear nights ) as fast as it comes in ( on a global basis ) . White clouds and ice contribute to an albedo which increases our reflectivity.

Unradiated heat - unless trapped in a perfectly reflective ( inside coating ) cocoon there would be no such thing as unradiated heat.
If an object has a temperature above zero Kelvin then it has heat
AND it will radiate at it's black body ( oops - sorry about the technical term ) temperature ( less inefficiencies due to texture, color, etc. ) . The key is to keep the absorption surface as cool as possible and the radiative surface as hot as possible.

I believe the space program tried metallic surfaces first under the theory they would reflect the heat. But anyone who has grabbed a bright metal tool which has been laying in the sun knows better. Typical of government they spent mucho money learning the obvious. White reflects much better - thus the rockets and suits were changed to white.

A refrigeration unit with a radiative coil could dump the excess heat into black space - which would present a temperature near zero Kelvin to radiate into ( actually a few degrees above zero due to leftover radiation from the big bang ) . Actually into is incorrect but close enough - radiation out with next to nothing in ( except starlight ) .
If that was not enough then venting water vapor would be very efficient
but a waste of valuable water ( likely only an emergency backup ) .

I could go on, especially if I re-read material available to me. But this IS a Gold forum. And jousting with Mozel is a waste of time since he will never be swayed from his beliefs, regardless of evidence or experience ( such as living on a cool planet ) to the contrary.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 04:47
sharefin (Supernaut) ID#284255:
Save the file as a .gif or .jpg

bmp files are a killer on size.

You can take a screen snapshot by pressing these buttons.
shift + alt + print screen

This coppied snapshot can then be pasted into a graphics program or into MS Word97 where it can be saved as a gif.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 04:40
sharefin (Asia's economic rebound likely to be shortlived) ID#284255:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 04:36
sharefin (Hedgehog) ID#284255:

There are some excellent articles here but I couldn't find the one you want.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 04:31
bondsman__A (Japan) ID#261102:
Virtually no good news on the corporate front.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 04:27
Nick@C (Sharefin) ID#386245:
I thought you were a pacifist.

Been buying lead futures, mate

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 04:25
bondsman__A (The authorities understand the problem.) ID#261102:
Copyright © 1998 bondsman__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Rubin sees no quick fix to world financial

NEW HAVEN, Conn., Oct 17 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert
Rubin said on Saturday that there is no quick fix for the world's financial
problems but the path to solving them and preventing future turmoil seems

One of the main challenges is to bridge the gap between ``the sovereignty of
nations on the one hand, and the demands of the transnation global economy
on the other hand,'' Rubin said in a speech to fellow alumni of the Yale Law School.

World financial market turmoil, the collapse of growth in Asia and fears of a global credit crunch are forcing
economists to lower their forecasts for global growth and admit that recession cannot be ruled out.

But Rubin, a 1964 graduate who received the school's award of merit on Saturday, expressed optimism a more
successful global financial framework can be hammered out.

``I believe that we have a good understanding of the crisis, what needs to be done and the components of an effective
architecture for the future global financial system,'' he said.


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 04:19
sharefin (Good site for the Aussies) ID#284255:

You can create watch portfolios signing in as a guest.

Great for monitoring your gold stocks etc.

Also displays stats for markets, currencies and commodities.

Local Queensland power providors Y2k statement.

Check out rule #1 for Year2000 compliancy ( link on page )

Seems like no power company will ever be able to claim compliancy adhering to this rule.

This one interesting?
Read their statement and check their product list.
And Germany is so far behind the 8-ball. DUH!

Got gold, guns & grub?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 04:03
bondsman__A (Leaders don't lead and confidence imperiled.) ID#261102:
So what's new?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 03:57
tolerant1 (with REGARDS...Namaste' to all...and I will personally attest to e-gold and the very fine) ID#31868:
and HONORABLE people there...Douglas Jackson is good folks...yup...uh huh...

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 03:53
Andraschkov (Mozel (ring).) ID#256191:
Copyright © 1998 Andraschkov/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I first saw the two dolphins meeting design in the mid 80's. It is now very common and you can find them here in the Wallmart/Kmart costume jewlery section or in the trinket shops south of the border. Look on the inside of the band. If it is gold ( and wasn't had made by a student or amateur ) it will has the gold content stamped on it. If it is not stamped and you 'really' think its gold and want to test it, you will need a test kit which are available at coinshops/ hobby shops ( At least here in Arizona ) . If you can't find one, the key ingrediant to the test is Nitric acid.
Have a small bowl of backing soda set to the side to neutralize the acid. place one drop of acid on the surface of the ring. If it starts to 'fizzle' and turn green it is not gold or mearly plated. After several seconds if it does not turn green but produces a brownish stained area it is 10k. If only the slightest blemish forms it is 14k. If nothing happens whatsoever, you have an 18k plus ring or your acid is spoiled. You can test the acid on a piece of hideous costume jewerly or an old piece of pipe you don't care for. Of course after you witness the above phenomenom, place the ring in the baking soda completely for a bit to neutralize the acid. Once the acid is neutralized, rub the blemished spot with the baking soda and the blemish will rub out. ( If it turned green, it will not rub out! ) I learned this from a buddy who has a pawn shop and sells me a gold coin or two when they pop up.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 03:50
Nick@C (Now I am REALLY worried.) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Jenny Prabhu writes a good Column in Sunday's Canberra Times.
She mentions Andy Smith of UBS turning bullish on gold ( this has REALLY got me worried ) .

When a gold perma-bear comes out of its cave and grows horns and starts kicking up some dust; it may just be time to buy some gold puts.

I am in awe of the power of the market manipulators. Whatever else you may think of Greenspam, Rub-it-in and the 'Weenie-in-Chief', you must admit that their manipulative powers are awesome. These markets are on a string.

If you are expecting a crash before the elections, go have another think!!The 'Vote-Purchasing-Triumvirate' know what they are doing. This market will be held up until AFTER the November elections. They want Mom and Pop Americanus eating apple pie and counting their share 'profits' on mid-term election day. If you want to bet against them--you had better have very deep pockets!!

More air will be 'allowed' out of the bubble AFTER election day. If you think I am getting cynical, then go back and re-read the last year's Kitco posts. They document manipulation on a massive ( and successful ) scale.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 03:47
messy79 (Scams?) ID#346209:
Anybody trust 'E Gold'? ( ref:that kiwi scam of the past )

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 03:43
Leland (John Dizard -- You are still well advised to wait for the correction in the) ID#31876:
gold price to continue. The real bull market in gold is still
just over the horizon.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 03:29
aurator () ID#25490:
In total agreement digital is sterile, lacking warmth

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 03:22
Nick@C (John Disney) ID#386245:
I have got over 10,000 records and about 2,000 cds. I prefer listening to the records. A good mate of mine bought a Marantz? valve record player last year. Along with some $3000 speakers, the sound is extraordinary. I also have 17 jukeboxes. If you ever get back to Oz we'll have a night of 'golden sounds'.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 03:22
aurator () ID#25490:
Russel turns up everywhere and would lose the holes in his Lifesavers™ if he hadn't already eaten them.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 03:19
aurator () ID#25490:

Any discount depends upon whether the sheep are wearing red high heels and fishnet stockings.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 03:13
Nick@C (To the Kitco Kiwis) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
C.T. 18-10-98

Edinburgh: Crafty crofters on Scottish Islands are wangling cheap ferry trips to the mainland--by taking their sheep on holiday with them. Now ferry company Caledonian MacBrayne is reviewing a discount scheme meant to help them take livestock to market.

A Cal-Mac spokesman said, There has been some abuse. Certain drivers have been taking one or two sheep in their cars on ferries so they can benefit from what is a very generous discount scheme. We know that some of these drivers were just going on holiday or on other business.
What kind of discount do you Kiwis get between North and South islands

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 03:12
John Disney (digital .. schmigital) ID#24135:
Technology is great .. It not only gave us the moon
hoax and all the special effects fall out .. It gave
us the compact disk ..
... problem is lps sound a lot better ..

.. tell me about no inflation .. try buying a valve
amplifier ..

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 02:54
mozel (@aurator @Disney) ID#153110:
Have no such apparatus on board.

I had an inkling either you or Russell would be laying a claim to that ring.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 02:43
mozel (@NTEOTWAWKI @Wrong Wrong Wrong) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A golf ball ( this is a golf site ) in orbit around the earth at a distance one half the distance between earth and moon would be HOT. not cold. Not cold anywhere.

I don't know if the idea that space is cold came from Walter Cronkite or Star Trek or because it is cold on Mount Everest, but it is wrong, wrong, wrong. Deep space is a vacuum. There is no ambient temperature in a vacuum. There is no gain or loss of heat from convection or conductance in a vacuum. This is why the household thermos keeps hot things hot and cold things cold. There is only heat gain and loss from radiation in the perfect vacuum of deep space.

There is constant radiated heat from the sun in the space from the earth to the moon. So, a craft will be constantly absorbing heat and radiating heat. Its temperature will rise to some equilibrium temperature. For an unreflective object, that temperature is 245F per LGB. You can use white to minimize absorption of the sun's radiated heat, but a lot will still be absorbed. Further, the craft is utterly exposed to all the forms of radiation thrown off by our pal, the sun; things like gamma and x-rays and corpuscular radiation. And the first structural requirement on the craft is that it remain pressurized. Rotation of the craft will have no effect on the rate at which it radiates heat and hence no effect on the rate at which it offloads heat.

Whatever that equilibrium temperature is after design is the beginning of the heat problem. Add to it heat from electronics, heat from motors for pumps. etc., heat from batteries, and heat from the people on board. The excess heat has to be absorbed by a coolant which can be ejected. How else can you get heat off the craft ? The kind of radiator that will work on earth by convenction won't work in the vacuum of space.

The surface of the moon is worse, because the sun's heat is already absorbed there, radiated, and reflected from there and the sun is shining still. Sure all those layers of different materials are going to be a countermeasure to the heat. But, will none get through ? It's at least 245F underfoot. And inside the suit in a vacuum you will overheat just from your body heat unless cooled. And you have to carry your air and some apparatus to circulate it. How did they get heat out of and off the astronaut's suit ? Or what did they absorb it into ?

Earth orbit EVA is significantly less of a challenge than EVA on the moon. And I don't think they are using the same suit in earth orbit as the one in the movie.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 02:34
ERLE (Judge Crater) ID#190411:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 02:31
John Disney (oboyoboy) ID#24135:
to all lp fans ..
just bought a second hand Linn Sondek
with a Riga arm for 2800 Rand ..
$ 500 US. Included were 2 Ganz moving
coils and a moving magnet with 2 extra
stylus.. a GOLDEN deal .. Now listening
to Stratas sing K. Weill in the AM. Nice.
Golden Oldies ..

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 02:31
Hedgehog (cherokee, angel web has snared a thief.......) ID#39857:

Prof. Paul Davies in The Age Melb Aus Sat 17 front page sat. extra
chaos and socio-economic systems, .......look out ........he stole some
thunder and I hope he knows how to use it.............he wants to
credit his references but he doesnt know how I will do it for
him........ummmm thanks guys. Another Kitco score......................
no mention on flux but laser..............focus the chaos and Mother Nature
will do the rest.............ooooopppps
Can anyone post this article please.................

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 02:28
Gollum (Signing off) ID#43349:
Tomorrow I'll be busy getting all my snake levers ready for the coming week. So I'll go rest up. Good night.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 02:26
John Disney ('bout dat ring ..) ID#24135:
For brother Mozel ..
You-all jes found ma paw-paws RING !! Ah dropped it
in the lot when ah went visitin Russell .. please
send ..

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 02:20
Gollum (@ERLE ) ID#43349:
I think you're right. It's been so long ago. At least I got all the letters right.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 02:18
ERLE (@Gollum) ID#190411:
I believe that was Judge Crater.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 02:14
lefty kiwi (Jules Verne is a figment of my amigination) ID#32176:
i have always believed Jules Verne was a psychic...
His book correctly predicted the exact time as the actual moon flight
over 50 or 60 years before the occurence ........ however ...
seeing that the moon walk is a fraud , Jules Verne did not exist
and there are no such things as submarines
And I am a believer in government conspiracies .


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 02:07
2BR02B? () ID#266105:

Coulda been my inner child, last spotted on a milk carton somewhere.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 02:02
Gollum (@2BR02B? ) ID#43349:
Was a famous disappearance case in NY I believe many years ago.
Many many years ago.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 01:52
Przytula__A (Kiwi. . . Monday would be a good day.) ID#227290:
I don't know if Monday is going to be D-Day, but I agree that we are far from being out of the woods.

I have to wonder about people who go on national TV and proclaim that the bear market is over. They read off their list of reasons and they sure do sound convincing! Besides, they have a $150,000 education and a diploma to back it all up with. Too bad it doesn't work that way. That would be something though, a 6 week bear market.

Is it just me or am I missing something? The only thing predictable about world markets are their unpredictability. Ever wonder why favorites only win a third of the time in horse racing? It's because the rest of the time the majority is wrong. Know what? I don't need a $150,000 education and a piece of paper to back that up.

Sure, why not? Monday would be a good day. = )

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 01:52
2BR02B? () ID#266105:

Judge Carter doesn't ring a bell either. Perhaps a former
risk manager for one of the major money center banks...?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 01:50
aurator () ID#25490:
Who'd want toas alligator chum?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 01:47
Gollum (@2BR02B? ) ID#43349:
Ooops. I meant Judge Carter.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 01:45
aurator () ID#25490:
the porpoise ring sounds very beautiful. How much does it weigh? If you can scan it I'm sure some of the folk here would appreciate it.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 01:42
2BR02B? () ID#266105:

Don't know that one, Judge Cramer. I was thinking maybe
a key witness in the impeachment inquiry.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 01:38
Gollum (@2BR02B? ) ID#43349:
Maybe Judge Cramer?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 01:35
2BR02B? (Gollum) ID#266105:

Or Deep Throat.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 01:31
mozel (@aurator) ID#153110:
Got out of the car in a strange parking lot yesterday and picked up a ring from the pavement. The top is open with two porpoises facing, their tails blending into the ring. One is silver or white gold and the other yellow gold and the two meet at the halfway point of the ring proper.
Don't know how someone could loose that off a finger without noticing. Can't imagine how to find the party. Any idea what it is worth ?

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 01:29
Gollum (@2BR02B? ) ID#43349:
Are you sure? Looks a little more like Jimmy Hoffa.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 01:21
aurator () ID#25490:
This one from the now defunct Auckland Coin & Bullion Exchange. This oufit scammed kiwi investors by offering gold certificates guaranteed to be supported by bullion in the AC&B's vaults.

When the scheme blew up, suprise suprise! There were more certificates than bullion. Investors left to suck air as the bank debenture holders secured the gold against their losses.

One that got away

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 01:08
aurator () ID#25490:
current Gold Kiwi coin

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 01:03
Supernaut (All) ID#288115:
Copyright © 1998 Supernaut/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I just submitted a file to Bart's server for all to look at. It's the Dec to Feb Comex Gold Spread. I've been using this to trade Durban since last December. Very effective, not perfect, but effective nonetheless. I think the reason it works so well is due to the gearing Durban has to the POG. Just thought I would share with all.

Also, this is the first time I've posted a file here and needless to say the file is quite large ( 600+Kb ) . I use Supercharts and was wondering if anyone could explain to me how to send a Supercharts window that is smaller in size. I've seen others here that use Tradestation and Supercharts and their files are much smaller Kb-wise. How do you do that? Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 00:52
2BR02B? (Bre-X geologist Guzman finally found) ID#266105:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 00:21
kiwi (Final call.) ID#194311:
Just for the record I have an eerie feeling this stock market has been set up ripe for a huge crash on Monday....1000 point down day, perhaps, if she really get's a rolling.
All the pieces are in place.
But I've been wrong before.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 00:17
kiwi (EJ...aurator....good health to ya.) ID#194311:
I'm off to remedy my liquidity problem...damn parched actually.

Think it'll be a Guiness....yer wiv us or yer a Guiness?

Go gold.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 00:12
EJ (aurator) ID#45173:
Flying Dog Ale

Think I'll have another. Cheers!


Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 00:05
kiwi (aurator..Andy Smith) ID#194311:
Copyright © 1998 kiwi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
yep definitely ex-UBS..rat's leaving sinking ships and all that...he is now the authority for some other crowd but Bridge still quote's his latest, it's on Cnn-fn bridge news.

A report from Andy Smith, analyst at Mitsui Bussan, pondered
possibility of a golden punchanged line amid changing attitudes
investors to risk.
Suddenly gold looks cheap--if crude--insurance against
pestilence, said Smith, adding that gold had barely half the historic
volatility of foreign exchange, bonds or Wall Street.
A report from analyst GNI Research was blunter, Gold should
to benefit from the quality flight argument, and also further
weakness in
the dollar. Buy gold.

Changed his tune...undoubtably knows a lot more about the situation at UBS than most...already down a cool bill on bond derivaitve meltdown...will the gold loan debacle wipe them out?

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