Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:50
aurator () ID#25490:
What I meant to say was
In Europe, you're up to your arse
In everything past

I'm Just murdering a perfectly great song by Terry Allen

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:50
John B (Ravenfire) ID#77133:
Very doubtful that the government will shut down - would look bad for the Republican dominated Congress.

Also, seems probable that the U.S. stock market made a short to intermediate term bottom intra-day last Thursday ( DJ 7468.27 ) .

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:46
HighRise (aurator) ID#401460:

I think you have me mixed up with someone else, maybe High Hopes or someone like that.


Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:44
6pak (World Corporate WELFARE BUMS @ Globalization Bailout by TAXPAYER'S/Worker's/Citizen's) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
October 11, 1998

FOCUS-U.S. Congress readies deal on IMF

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Congressional Republicans Sunday hammered out a draft agreement to free up $18 billion for the International Monetary Fund, but were unlikely to finalize the deal until other budget disputes were settled.

It's done, one Republican aide said of the IMF funding and reform package under negotiations with the White House.

The administration had warned that some of these demands would be impossible to implement at the IMF, which reports to 182 governments, not just the United States.

The Republican proposal would also create an advisory commission to report to Congress on the future roles and responsibilities of the IMF, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization.

The reforms are necessary, Armey told ABC television on Sunday.

The IMF can have American tax dollars if the IMF is responsible and productive in the world economy.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:41
aurator () ID#25490:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

a couple of days ago you wanted to purchase & take delivery of a respectable amount of physical, if your requirements would be satisfied by NZ 9999 coins or bars please let me know.

The wonder about Doug Graham's idle/idol THOUGHTS and dicta about allowing the land owner the Ag and Au rights is that anyone with title to the land would gain the precious minerals. As far as the greenstone and other things like fishing rights, that's only for the maoris.

Beautiful Jewel says Gidday, she turning into a goldbug. Now she wants a panda around her neck. Darned thing is that I turned down a 1/10 panda about 8 weeks ago in favour of a 1 ouncer: relative value: and couldn't justify the premium for 1/10. I know, looking back, I'm going to laugh that I hesitated over a few dollars extra.

Didja see Gollum's post at Sun Oct 11 1998 09:30?

Looks like our beloved soverinis attract VAT in Europe, your up: to arse..

Speaking of which, I wonder if the brand new stralian gobmint will exempt 999* from GST? I suggest that You and The Privateer start lobbying.


Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:41
HighRise (ASIA) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Hong Kong
Hang Seng
Nikkei 225
I guess everything has turned around now.

11:30 and still waiting! I will try again!
11:39 I will try again, still waiting.

Gianni Dioro saw your post on another window while screwing around with this post. Was the Revelations verse the one you were looking for?


Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:38
ravenfire (what's the skinny on the US govt. budget?) ID#333126:
are they gonna shut down govt. again? last i heard the deadline was today...

what's the latest news?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:37
John B (Looking at the Facts ) ID#77133:
The notion that there are massive short positions in gold by funds of one stripe or another was smashed by the Commitments of Traders ( COT ) report issued by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission ( CFTC ) this past Friday afternoon at 3:30pm. Commercial firms ( those that use or fabricate gold for commercial purposes ) reversed their future positions from long to short. Longs positions went from 105,870 to 90,553 contracts and short positions rose from 96,553 to 132,205 contracts. Worse,large speculators absolutely REVERSED their previous positions of two weeks ago by reducing short positions from 32,286 to 12,919 contracts and increasing long positions from 13,373 to 36,588 contracts.

Two points - since commercials are considered the most knowledgeable of gold demand and supply trends, their move to short is negative for the POG; and secondly, since large speculators are now 3 to 1 long over short forget about any hedge funds being squeezed out of their short positions because there aren't any.

Finally, the dollar has lost about 12% against the yen in the last two days and gold did NOTHING. None of this sounds very good to me for our beloved notions about the sanctity of gold.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:37
ravenfire (what's the skinny on the US govt. budget?) ID#333126:
are they gonna shut down govt. again? last i heard the deadline was today...

what's the latest news?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:27
Nick@C (What Crash) ID#386245:
Honkers and Nikkei up big.

Is volatility an Italian pick up truck

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:26
Gianni Dioro (Highrise) ID#384350:
Thanks for the reference. It is a good passage, though not the same story as the said fable by La Fontaine.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:24
G-spot (Nick@C Stock markets open but banks/financials closed) ID#434226:
in U.S for Columbus Day.Canadian closed for Thanks Giving Day.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:24
HighRise (More Problems for Bill & Hillary) ID#401460:

The pattern of evidence obtained by the committee implicates the president and the First
Lady in the possible theft of government property, the report states in its opening summary.



Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:21
Chicken man (Gianni Dioro @ More frogs) ID#341297:
High Rise beat me to it...Another reference to frogs..Revelations 16:13..
Talks about three foul spirits like frogs ...happens at a place called
Armageddon....Agree with High Rise...Romans, then the book of John....
About a man who is your greatest friend in life...and in eternity..Jesus is the way to that inner peace that all mankind is desperately seeking.

GO Jesus

Just a thought...Chicken man..

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:20
tolerant1 (Splendid be this Day...) ID#31868:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the crunch of leaves, the rush of air through limbs I dream of...Italian kit cars, made in England, with French speed...183mph...

and they know why we grin...heh...heh..heh...

the keys to this baby look fast...

oh yeah...had a barbecue at the compound this I threw fifty pieces of gold on the lawn...

priceless...ah ha..........

the children knew...the adults...had not a clue...

the yittles know that of a life...thought is the MOST precious...

a blanket without a loom or shuttle...woven of warmth from within...

and one look at their pupils is gift...there are no desks...but the Teacher is there...everywhere...

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:18
HighRise (US Government Shutdown) ID#401460:

Clinton will shut the government down and have the unions in the streets during the election.

And For now we will go to war in Europe.


Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:17
ravenfire (high risk/reward plays?) ID#333126:
will anyone now recommend that I buy puts on T bonds? S&P?

straddle positions?

hmmm......... so many options ( gee ) , so little time..

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:14
ravenfire (US markets) ID#333126:
Nick@C - I think it was mentioned that the bond markets are closed while the stock market will remain open.

Wonder about the commodity markets though. are they gonna be open?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:13
John B (Nick) ID#77133:
U.S. banks and bond markets closed tomorrow - I believe all other markets are open

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:13
HighRise (Third Kitco Window Open) ID#401460:

This really works! Last two windows are frozen.
One says Your comment has been posted...Please wait

Another says nothing, it is just grey with the charts blinking once in a while?

Must be a threat that Gold is going up.



Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:09
contrarian ($US DOWN) ID#203137:
$us back down to 116Yen. Kitco platinum chart shows big rise. is this correct?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:08
contrarian ($US DOWN) ID#203137:
$us back down to 116Yen. Kitco platinum chart shows big rise. is this correct?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:06
HighRise (GOLD) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Gold ( CMX )


Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:02
Nick@C (Highrise) ID#386245:
Your post got here a minute before you sent it!!
Aussie gold shares down 2 1/2 to 3% so far today. Light volumes.
Are US markets open tomorrow

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:00
HighRise (I Spoke to Soon) ID#401460:

I had to open another window to see if my post made it to Kitco.


Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 23:00
skinny (Rhody) ID#28994:
Just Curious....Who does the gold mines in Canada sell there gold to.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 22:58
sharefin (Swing chart updated) ID#284255:

Is this the bottom of the slide?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 22:56
HighRise (Gianni Dioro) ID#401460:

Frogs and Things, Old Testament?
Try Exodus 8:2

New Testament, has the latest news.
Check out Romans! Paul says it like it is.

Kitco posts are smokin now!


Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 22:49
rhody (World Gold Council announced that Bank of Canada sold another) ID#413307:
7.9 tons of gold last month, as part of their on-going policy of
converting reserve assets into interest bearing financial instruments
( read USD T-bills )

I e-mailed the BOC, and informed them that they have been
buying USD paper that was 30% overvalued in order to cash in on
a gigantic 5.5% interest rate on the t-bills. I told them they
were idiots, selling real money for a stack of paper.

I wonder if I will get an answer. It's only courtious you know.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 22:46
HighRise (Connect:Host contacted. Waiting for reply...) ID#401460:

Well I can post but can't get the site to update.


Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 22:33
Gianni Dioro (Les Grenouilles qui Demandent un Roi) ID#384350:
Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 16:36
mozel ( @Gianni There is also a Book of Kings in the Old Testament ) ID#153110:
which relates similarly to the frogs and the stork.
I'm a bit new to this religous ideology. Since my youth, I had been misled by organised religion. Now I'm learning that there is God's Law and Laws made by Man, and that the man cannot be held accountable or subjugated to Laws passed by other men when they contradict God's Laws.

Can someone please post a more exact reference to the Frogs and the Stork in the OT book of Kings?


Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 22:27
HighRise (Connect:Host contacted. Waiting for reply...) ID#401460:

Well Kitco has out done itself to night! This site is a mess. I couldn't even get access a while ago and just now I had to open 3 windows to get one that would work.

I would imagine this will post in about an hour.
Now that I have said that watch Kitco start flying.



Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 22:25
Envy (Stock Market Crash Forecaster) ID#219363:
As posted on Kitco some time ago. Slipped to -8

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 22:09
Envy (@Chicken Man) ID#219363:
Proud to know ya. Something poetic about an ex-farmer squeezed out of his assets in the 80's coming back to press the bondo boys for 75K$US, I just love that to no end. Agree - there are a lot of smart folks on the forum w/ great strategies and information, speaking of which, where's Sharefin with his swing chart and Oleman update *grin*.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 22:08
AUH20 (SsilverPlate) ID#200235:
Sorry about the double non post.

Too much negative comment on POG should indicate up move for gold tomorrow.

ANOTHER positive indicator for gold is severe shortage of Onions in India, which is the #l consumer for gold in World. Indians will be buying gold with all the money they cant spend on onions. : )

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 22:02
strat (EJ 19:21) ID#93241:
Thought you've heard it all? Actually, according to some, the Earth has two moons. In astrology circles this moon is known as Lillith, in others as Anoolios, or Kimespai, meaning never-to-allow-one-to-sleep-in-peace. But what do I know? You may be right. At my age, my eyes are going, though my glasses make good telescopes.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 22:02
rich (@silver plate, I have a call in all ready hit my strike price ) ID#411320:
Think it going go up some more.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 22:00
AUH20 (Silverplate) ID#200235:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 22:00
AUH20 (Silverplate) ID#200235:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 21:59
rich (no it not you there is a case of the slows) ID#411320:
After the stock markets sucker rally goes up a couple a hundred
I am going short the hell out of the dow.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 21:57
silver plate (Goldbugs) ID#234253:
Reading over todays posts leaves me with the impression that this site is composed of squashed goldbugs. Such pessimism would presage tomorrows price of gold and equities to be up. Go gold

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 21:52
Doctor Gold (Kitco Site is Exceptionally SLOW!) ID#272136: it me or has this site almost ground to a stop?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 21:08
Chicken man (The Hatt @ Gold bugs) ID#341297:
Copyright © 1998 Chicken man/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I've been sitting here trying to figure out what a true gold bug is...could it be someone who read Jerome F. Smith's THE COMING CURRENCY COLLAPSE in 1980....great book....excellent chart comparing money supply vs. inflation on long term basis ( since 1950 )
If I may...I would like to tell you who Chicken man is...51 years old.. wonderful wife.. three great kids...a ex-farmer who went busted in the early 80's... I found out the hard way what a liquidity squeeze is... cost me every thing I owned... needless to say, you can more than likely figure out I was literaly broke, no savings, no IRA, no 401K...I'm a self employed contractor, ( own Golden Rule Const. ) ... the only money I have has been with the sweat of my brow.....nothing wrong with working tho....just my body is getting tired and sore...ever pour and finish 9 trucks of concrete in 6 hrs...made less than $200.00....slow way to try to increase one's PM holdings...after helping with college expenses I'm broke... learned ( still learning!! ) about the leveraging in options.. to me, this is my only chance to try to obtain some coins to buy PM...forgive me for bragging but..last week made some bets... clipped those boys for over 75K...long Yen and short T-bonds...going to try
it again plus short the XAU..the reason I'm telling all of you this is there is enough $ in these markets for all of us....providing you have no history of heart troubles ( ha! ) ... I'm willing to share with anybody how these critters work....there are other posters here that know a heck of a lot more than this 'ole country boy...for real.. lots and lots of bright minds here..excluding me!!....sorry for using so much of your time reading this crap!.. I would just like to help...something I wish someone would have offered me...If you have a trading stratagy that works I would like to hear about it

Just a thought...Chicken man..

PS ...left, right or other wise I not afraid to tell you the results..ain't the first time I ever been wrong. ( or the last..ha )

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 20:40
Fred (To: gagnrad) ID#341234:
Before people actually start trying the beer and ice cream diet, they need to know that dietary calories are actually kilocalories. That is, unless you eat ice cream while on the moon. It that case, the vacuum of space would turn the ice cream into cheese. Ever get the impression that some people on this site need to go back to school and get their G.E.D.'s?

As for predicitons, my guess is that it will be a down week for both gold and the stock market. I like that cycles chart at

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 20:38
SDRer (How Italy made the cut?) ID#290172:
From the Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Borrower List [Success follows success on the world stage the banner proclaims]

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
LIT 2.5 trillion, zero coupon Notes due 2048 ( the lira will have been gone how many years? )
Went to market Jan 1998

European Investment Bank
LIT 3 trillion 5% notes due 2008
Went to market Mar 1998

5.5 trillion-quite a war chest

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 20:21
Chicken man (The Hatt @ Gold bugs) ID#341297:
Copyright © 1998 Chicken man/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I've been sitting here trying to figure out what a true gold bug is...could it be someone who read Jerome F. Smith's THE COMING CURRENCY COLLAPSE in 1980....great book....excellent chart comparing money supply vs. inflation on long term basis ( since 1950 )
If I may...I would like to tell you who Chicken man is...51 years old.. wonderful wife.. three great kids...a ex-farmer who went busted in the early 80's... I found out the hard way what a liquidity squeeze is... cost me every thing I owned... needless to say, you can more than likely figure out I was literaly broke, no savings, no IRA, no 401K...I'm a self employed contractor, ( own Golden Rule Const. ) ... the only money I have has been with the sweat of my brow.....nothing wrong with working tho....just my body is getting tired and sore...ever pour and finish 9 trucks of concrete in 6 hrs...made less than $200.00....slow way to try to increase one's PM holdings...after helping with college expenses I'm broke... learned ( still learning!! ) about the leveraging in options.. to me, this is my only chance to try to obtain some coins to buy PM...forgive me for bragging but..last week made some bets... clipped those boys for over 75K...long Yen and short T-bonds...going to try
it again plus short the XAU..the reason I'm telling all of you this is there is enough $ in these markets for all of us....providing you have no history of heart troubles ( ha! ) ... I'm willing to share with anybody how these critters work....there are other posters here that know a heck of a lot more than this 'ole country boy...for real.. lots and lots of bright minds here..excluding me!!....sorry for using so much of your time reading this crap!.. I would just like to help...something I wish someone would have offered me...If you have a trading stratagy that works I would like to hear about it

Just a thought...Chicken man..

PS ...left, right or other wise I not afraid to tell you the results..ain't the first time I ever been wrong. ( or the last..ha )

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 20:17
EJ (The timing of US/NATO intervention in Kosovo recalls) ID#45173:
another time long ago when the dollar was under attack...

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 19:33
Donald (Russian domestic produced gold being added to central bank reserves.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 19:31
EJ (The moon does not exist. It is projected upon the sky by aliens) ID#45173:
to break human confidence in human perception of reality.

Thank ya.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 19:08
gagnrad (Thermodynamics 101) ID#43460:
This works better if the beer is in a silver cup and the ice cream eaten with a silver spoon. But it doesn't work with freeze dried astronaut ice cream because they remove all the negative calories when they dry it. I don't know the author.

( Also called Thermodynamics to the Rescue )
A little technical - but keep reading
==============================================='s the ultimate diet for you
Beer and Ice Cream fans

As we all know, it takes 1 calorie to heat 1 gram
of water 1 degree centigrade. Translated into meaningful
terms, this means that if you eat a very cold dessert
( generally consisting of water in large part ) , the
natural processes which raise the consumed dessert
to body temperature during the digestive cycle literally
sucks the calories out of the only available source:
your body fat.

For example, a dessert served and eaten at near
0 degrees C ( 32.2 deg. F ) will in a short time be
raised to the normal body temperature of37 degrees C
( 98.6 deg. F ) . For each gram of dessert eaten, that
process takes approximately 37 calories as stated above.
The average dessert portion is 6 oz, or 168 grams.
Therefore, by operation of thermodynamic law,
6,216 calories ( 1 cal/gm/deg. x 37 deg. x 168 gms )
are extracted from body fat as the dessert's
temperature is normalized.

Allowing for the 1,200 latent calories in the dessert,
the net calorie loss is approximately 5,000 calories.

Obviously, the more cold dessert you eat,
the better off you are and the faster you will lose
weight, if that is your goal.

This process works equally well when drinking very
cold beer in frosted glasses. Each ounce of beer
contains 16 latent calories, but extracts 1,036 calories
( 6,216 cal. per 6 oz. portion ) in the temperature
normalizing process. Thus, the net calorie loss
per ounce of beer is 1,020 calories.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to calculate
that 12,240 calories ( 12 oz. x 1,020 cal./oz. ) are
extracted from the body in the process of drinking
a can of beer.

Frozen desserts, e.g., ice cream, are even more
beneficial, since it takes 83 cal./gm to melt them
( i.e., raise them to 0 deg. C ) and an additional 37 cal./gm
to further raise them to body temperature. The results
here are really remarkable, and it beats running hands down.

Unfortunately, for those who eat pizza as an excuse to
drink beer, pizza ( loaded with latent calories and served
above body temperature ) induces an opposite effect.

But, thankfully, as the astute reader should have
already reasoned, the obvious solution is to drink a
lot of beer with pizza and follow up immediately with
large bowls of ice cream.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 19:02
Silverbaron (Bill2j) ID#288295:


Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 18:59
NJ (Secret Deal) ID#20748:
Copyright © 1998 NJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The report lifted from AFR.

[Commonwealth Securities]

[Saturday, October 10, 1998]

[Trading Room ] [Markets ][Financial Review ]

[Toolbar ][Search ][Archive ]

[News ]
[World ] [Previous Story] [Next Story]
[Investment ]
[Markets ]
[Features ]
[Information ] Secret deal on $US-yen dive
[Banking ]
[Property ] By Tony Boyd, Tokyo
[The FIN ]
[Perspective ] A secret agreement between the world's two
[Smart Money ] economic superpowers, Japan and the US, lay
[Verbatim ] behind the sudden dumping of the US dollar.
[Editorial ]
[Jobs ] The 15 per cent free-fall in the dollar
against the Japanese yen over the past week
[Special Reports ]has opened the way for the Bank of Japan to
begin a massive money-printing exercise to
rescue the nearly insolvent Japanese
[Home ] banking system.
[Feedback ]
[Letters ] But it is a high-risk strategy that could
threaten the US role as the engine of
[AFR Collection ] economic growth and kill any chance of a
recovery in the Japanese economy.
[AFR Books ]
It may also threaten a new wave of
financial contagion triggered by the sudden
dramatic unwinding of highly leveraged
positions in world capital markets by hedge

Currency strategists are convinced that the
week's movements in the dollar have never
been seen before in 25 years of floating
exchange rates, and that this will
inevitably produce big winners and big

Japanese exporters are being butchered in
the Tokyo stockmarket, which on Friday fell
to its lowest closing level since December

Japanese retail investors who pumped an
estimated 30 trillion yen into US dollar
bond funds have suffered severe losses, and
Japanese life insurers and pension funds
also have heavy exposure to higher-yielding
US dollar assets.

Asia is a winner, as shown by movements in
regional stockmarkets on Friday, with the
Hang Seng Index up nearly 4 per cent, Seoul
up 6 per cent, Jakarta up 7 per cent in
early trade and Manila up 4 per cent. The
Australian market was quiet, losing 12
points to 2491.30, while the Australian
dollar maintained its relationship with the
higher yen, trading around US61.70¢.

A strong yen is good for Japanese banks
because every Y1 fall in the currency's
value against the $US forces Japanese banks
to cut their assets by Y1 trillion to
maintain their capital adequacy ratios at
the minimum level demanded by the Bank for
International Settlements.

Even those who doubt that there was a
US-Japan plot to strengthen the yen believe
that the latest foreign exchange movements
will enable the BoJ to monetise Japan's bad
loans without risking a free-fall in the

The US has abandoned its strong dollar
policy in favour of rescuing the Japanese
banking system, which it sees as the
biggest problem in the global financial
system, said Mr Ken Landon, currency
strategist at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell.

The Japanese Government knows they have to
recapitalise the banks, and to do that the
BoJ has to start the printing presses. If
they tried to do it at 130 or 140 yen to
the dollar there would be a run on the
currency and the yen could free-fall to 180
or 200 yen.

Mr Landon said the comments on Friday by US
Treasury officials in Washington and
officials from the Ministry of Finance in
Tokyo supported the view that both
countries want a weaker dollar.

He believes the deal between the US and
Japan was agreed in September, when the
first signs emerged of an end to the bull
trend in the dollar.

During the week, US Treasury Secretary Mr
Robert Rubin refused to confirm that the
strong dollar policy remained, and Japanese
Finance Minister Mr Kiichi Miyazawa said he
was worried about volatility but did not
comment on the yen's sudden strength.

Mr Ravi Bulchandani, chief currency
strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter,
said: The Ministry of Finance is modestly
approving yen strength because it knows the
amount that will have to be injected into
the Japanese economy will open the risk of
a yen free-fall, and they are trying to
start it as high as possible. Because they
are so concerned that any attempts to
inject liquidity into Japan will just leak
overseas, they are making it very
uncomfortable for Japanese investors to
send money abroad.

Mr Bulchandani said the change in the
strong US policy was bad news for the world
economy because a falling dollar made it
less likely that the US could continue to
be the growth locomotive for a faltering
world economy.

Deutsche Morgan Grenfell's Mr Landon said
the strong yen strategy carried high risks,
but it fitted well with the desire of
industrialised nations, especially Japan,
to punish highly leveraged hedge funds
which are the main source of the world's
speculative capital flows.

Financial markets are fearful that the
sudden yen movements, including a ¥12
movement on Wednesday and ¥10 movements up
and down on Thursday and Friday, will lead
to more huge losses at hedge funds.

The extraordinary leverage of the hedge
funds was revealed when the rescued New
York-based LTCM admitted it had borrowed
$US50 billion in funds for each $US1
billion in capital.

* $A rise continues as hedge funds unwind
* Deadly act of imbalance
* Coming to grips with frustration


© This material is [Back To Top ]
subject to copyright and
any unauthorised use, copying or mirroring
is prohibited.


Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 18:58
Bill2j (@All Goldbugs) ID#260433:
If you felt a real buying opportunity was coming up soon and you had your choice of five gold mining companies to invest in which five would you choose? Will be thankful for any and all input. Thanks.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 18:48
Nick@C (Let's throw Occam's Razor out the window!!) ID#386245:
Off to collect more moon rocks:
It's enough to make you give up drinking moselle!!

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 18:44
Cage Rattler (Cash is king ...) ID#33182:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 18:37
NJ (Secret Deal?) ID#20748:
This news report suggests a secret deal which led to sudden drop in USD/JY.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 18:33
BUGal (@ Pete.... Moon and OJ verdict) ID#206235:
Green Cheese? No we all know the Moon is made of silver! You know, By the light.....of the silvery Moooooon

All I know is that if I ever commit any major felnonies, murder perhaps, I want Mozel to be my jury Foreman.

Mozel, you didn't sit on the OJ jury by any chance?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 18:24
Pete (MoonMozel) ID#222231:
Next thing your going to tell us is that the Moon is'nt made out of green cheese. Now that would be sacrilege. Did'nt you know that the reason gold has been dropping in price is because ABX and Loral have been mining it from the Moon by the ton? Hmmmmmmm, ANOTHER potential website!

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 18:21
Jack () ID#252127:
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

When you make price predictions like Martin Armstrong which tend to be all over the board you're bound on occasion to be correct. Read his works and you'll know what I'm alluding to, or you might conclude that he just protecting his clients possitions.

One Junior Explorer that you should keep a close eye on is Romarco ( r Toronto ) , they will sell one of their properties abuting the Ken Synder Mine for Can $33 miilion to Euro and Franco Nevada for shares in these sister companies.
Romarco also has about Can $15-$17 million in cash and no LT debt. With the quality shares of Euro/Franco their overall value is greater than the stocks recent market price and some interesting properties are not included in that price.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 18:21
baal shem (;should I sell my bonds (Canada) and buy gold Physical bullion? stocks? calls? Gold funds ) ID#259253:
Gold MUST be headed higher. Has to be. Look around, look at the value and long term potential it has relative to all other assets. This IS the only way to go. Clearly.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 18:18
Cage Rattler ($/yen update) ID#33182:
Talk in the market is that there are *major* sell orders at the 120 level. $/yen may rise from 117 level to the 120-121 range and then possibly fall at a very fast pace.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 18:13
gagnrad (DJ re channels) ID#43460:
I've always appreciated your postings. Thanks.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 18:13
Envy (@Chicken Man) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I'd be interested in hearing which bonds are your targets and more information about how you're playing them. I guess we'll watch all this together, and we'll either be right or wrong together. The most comforting things I've seen this week are 1 ) the failed decline the other day, it was frenzy by all accounts, and the reason for that was 2 ) when the dollar fell, and bonds ate it, that was a clear signal ( to me at least ) that the captain has turned on the sell America light, and that we should take our seats and fasten our safety belts. Equities dropped on the news because they feared that the equities markets would be sold off by foreigners as well, which I'm betting they will be, this week or next. If that reasoning is true, that's why I'd be betting against the equities and the bonds at roughly the same time, because the trend of bonds up, stocks down depends too much on a belief that the whole stinking market can't sell off when there's anxiety.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 18:11
IDT (Market update) ID#228128:
Copyright © 1998 IDT/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thanks guys for the market updates. Chicken: I agree that Monday may bring more upside for the markets. If it peaks in the afternoon, I may buy some lotto tickets alla APHs post from the other day. I read the M. Armstrong article everyone was commenting on. There seems to be one counterintuitive comment on gold there. If the Tiger fund is in trouble and they are short gold, then it would follow that they will drive the POG up when they are forced to cover their shorts. After thinking about that a bit though it would seem logical also that the Central Bankers of the world will arrange another off-market swap for hedge funds in trouble. When they run up against a market call then some European CB will sell them their gold without disturbing the market. So, it would seem that we long suffering gold bugs are gonna get screwed again. The question however is can they keep the lid down on this thing forever or is it gonna get too big for them to handle?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 18:07
crazytimes (BugAl....) ID#344326:
Copyright © 1998 crazytimes/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
In case you have any doubts about manipulation, here is a post from Bill Murphy.....

The essence of it is ( my opinion ) the fed and other central banks are fixing their problems one at a time. They are making gold available from all corners for borrowing purposes. As you know capital availability is contracting in most all corners. In gold it is increasing. Why?
1. governments do not want it to appear that there is too much fear and panic in the market place. Gold is a symbol of that
2. And most important. Gold is a source of money for hedge funds that need it to solve their other problems and it is a way for the central banks and financial institutions to be on the same side of the program.
EX on the hedging side of what is going on - a very well known producer is being offered gold to forward hedge with almost no credit requirements which they have had to utilize in the past. NONE. The producer has never been offered these terms before. The Wall ST. firm offering the transaction is closely tied to Rubin.They want gold to hit the market place to keep the price down for now. Of course, the pressure cooker builds.


Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 18:05
Obsidian (Xenna: thank you for posting the link for the gold options) ID#237299:
Copyright © 1998 Obsidian/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It would be interesting to smooth the data, correcting the gold price to a flat line on the X axis and imposing this correction on the option price movement. All things being equal, it should show a gradual slop downwards reflecting the diminished value as time erodes it. With this smoothing one could more accurately see what else was going on.

I noticed this was on futures option prices; is there another link for physical options?

As for the spikes on the 12th or 13th and the 17th. Wopuld be interesting to go back and see what news hit the media those days to account for the surge.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 18:02
crazytimes (BugAl....) ID#344326:
Then there was Angell on Lou Dobbfs moneyline earlier in the week. I watched this former FED official, state that the FED has recently been sucessful in stopping the decline in POG ! Thus staving off deflation.

Spin, spin, spin. I think he is outright lying. The FED is stopping the increase! A rise in the POG now would signal the panic and true troubles in the system. All the factors are in play now to make gold rise. A declining dollar, a troubled financial system, declining equities. Why would the POG decline? MANIPULATION!

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 17:58
downunder (Request from my neighbour for the expertise at Kitco) ID#27341:
She would like to know the top 5 gold producers in Australia ( least risk )

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 17:44
Cage Rattler (Golden Pension) ID#33182:
Heard on local radio station that Alaska is only state where a pension is backed by physical gold.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 17:44
Donald (Brazil says interest to stay at 50% until early 1999) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 17:40
BUGal (Gold / Dollar paradox..... Angell) ID#206235:
Copyright © 1998 BUGal/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The events of the past week are somewhat baffling. We had the largest drop in the dollar, particularly against the Yen in 15 years. The stock market saw huge volatility swings, with very bearish indications towards week end. Interest rates were lowered by several countries with rumors of further FED lowering abounding. There was unrest worldwide with increasing escalation of war and rumor of war...Middle East, Bosnia, Turkey, etal.

All these events are suppsoed to be very bullish for Gold. Yet what happened on Friday? Big drop. I'm somewhat confused by this.

Then there was Angell on Lou Dobbfs moneyline earlier in the week. I watched this former FED official, state that the FED has recently been sucessful in stopping the decline in POG ! Thus staving off deflation.

Now I'm sure FED policy can affect the POG in U.S. dollar terms...but can someone tell me how allowing a huge drop in the dollar, and cutting of interest rates, and a long term policy that has been deflationary minded for the past year..... how can all THESE actions be considered as the FED stopping the decline in POG? This is baffling.....

Interesting times......

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 17:20
Oak (skinny) ID#240241:
if only you had posted a few minutes before my last post!! *sigh*

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 17:11
Hedgehog (Productivity Paradox) ID#39857:
Copyright © 1998 Hedgehog/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Computers find fruit for thought
By ROBERT MATTHEWS, The Telegraph, London
ECONOMISTS call it the Productivity Paradox: the fact that despite spending a trillion dollars a year on information technology, productivity growth in the Western industrial countries has plummeted by two- thirds since the 1960s - from an annual increase of 4.5 per cent to a piffling 1.5 per cent. What is more, the big users of IT, such as the service industries, have been suffering worst.

The most plausible explanation is that the jobs that computers do well - such as turning out nice-looking letters - make little difference to productivity. That said, there is one area of human endeavour whose productivity has been boosted beyond all imagining by the computer: scientific research.

Astronomers now use computers to do reruns of creation, to see how to get from events 15 billion years ago to what we see in the night sky today. Geophysicists have built computerised models of the entire earth, to see if they can mimic such weird effects as the sudden flip-over of the magnetic poles which occur from time to time, but whose cause is as yet quite unknown.

My favourite example of the productivity pay-off from computers in science is their impact on meteorology. The idea of forecasting the weather using the laws of physics was first proposed about 80 years ago by the English mathematician Lewis Fry Richardson. His pioneering efforts fell on rather stony ground however, not least because the calculations needed to predict the following day's weather took him about three months to do. There was also the small technical problem that when he finally finished his calculations, the forecast was complete nonsense.

Now meteorologists, using supercomputers, can compute the whole world's weather up to 10 days ahead in about half a hour. Their predictions are even occasionally right, too.

Curiously for a profession whose members were crucial in the invention of the computer, mathematicians have been rather chary about putting their faith in the boxes on their desks. But now they, too, are beginning to warm to the idea, following two triumphs of man and machine versus mathematical mysteries.

The first took place in 1976, when two mathematicians used a computer to solve the Four Colour Theorem. About 120 years earlier, a student at University College, London, remarked that one never seemed to need more than four different-coloured pencils to fill in a map so that no two countries with a common border had the same colour.

During the '50s, a mathematician showed that the infinitude of possible maps could be boiled down to about 10,000 special cases. If these turned out to need no more than four colours either, the theorem was proved. Mathematicians wheeled out a computer to do the colouring, and proved the theorem. Or at least, claimed to have proved it, for a number of mathematicians were pretty unhappy about trusting their faith in a computer-assisted proof.

Still, nothing succeeds like success, and the fact that no flaws have ever been found with the proof has helped to build confidence in the use of computers.

Such computer-aided maths has recently had another victory, with the announcement of a proof of Kepler's Conjecture: that it is impossible to stack oranges more efficiently than the way shops do it, with one layer fitting in the dips created by the one underneath.

During the '50s, the proof of this 350-year-old riddle had again been shown to boil down to a huge family of special cases. And in August, Professor Thomas Hales, of the University of Michigan, announced that he had knocked them all off, using computers to help with the drudgery.

Before too long, some amateur mathematicians may be claiming similar breakthroughs. For today's home computers are as fast as the supercomputers of the 1970s, and there is some incredibly powerful software to run on them.

Mathcad 8 is a new and astonishing set of programs which does not merely add and subtract, but performs algebra and calculus, giving the answers as formulae. If Mathcad can find an even better way of stacking oranges than Hales claims, you will be the first to know.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 17:10
BUGal (@ Mozel) ID#206235:
Copyright © 1998 BUGal/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I promised myself I wouldn't address this subject being unworthy of even basic debate.....but just for clarification for those who might wonder. The unshielded heat in space, at our distance from the sun, is approximetely 249 F, for an object that is non reflective, ie thermally absorbent with full exposure to radiation.

This has of course been well understood since the inception of the space program. Those of us in the satellite biz understand it well, and use reflective materials and appropriate thermal / vacuum screening tests on all space level hardware, accordingly.

Anyone who has witnessed or understands the technology of protective gear...., for example, shuttle astronauts doing 6 to 8 hour EVA's, realizes that it is not a difficult problem to spite of some lunatic whacko fringe website nonsense with total lack of scientific peer review that someone puts up on the net. In fact, the environmental problems are not nearly as difficult to resolve as a few hundred other issues are. Witness all the recent launch vehicle failures......

Last week I wacthed the Apollo series once again on the NASA channel. Which includes by the way, all the dozens of serious problems and snafu's that plaugued the program. It boggles my mind that anyone could ever study this issue, and conclude that the moonlandings and moonwalks were a fraud.

You'd have to subordinate all intellect and analytical reasoning entirely to do so. Perhaps replacing both with a willingness to believe virtually ANY unsubstantiated allegation that fits with a preconcived hypercynical world view of anything related to a Govt. program.

All the major U.S. Govt. conspiracies have been uncovered in their entirety, particularly since the legislation allowing full public access to Govt. archive documents. Everything from FBI abuses under the Hoover era, to biological and chemical tests performed on unsuspecting particpants for example in the 50's and 60's.

Re the Moonwalks of the Apollo program, it strecthes way beyond credible believability, to weigh all the physical evidence, testimony of extremely credible witnesses in the thousands, and documented evidence of all kinds, written, photographic, and the Apollo program......ALL said evidence pointing to a single conclusion.....and cast it all aside to favor some whacko with an inane and totally discredited theory who posts on some unreviewed website.

One might as well question whether Elvis remains alive and well at a Seven Eleven in Arkansas...though that conjecture would have far less evidence aginst it than some Moonwalk fraud theory.

But then, this is the beauty and curse of the web. Free speech is totally free and unrestricted by authorities or media spinmesiters, thus allowing us such gems as the Drudge site.

At the same time however, any hallucinating whack job nut case can put anything they please on the web and claim to be matter how outrageously ridiculous their facts. The anti immunization morons from hell come to mind.

But then.... there are always those who look at 1000 pieces of evidence, and conclude that if 999 indicate one conclusion, and 1 inicates the opposite, the one must be right.

the weight of evidence in the Apollo issue is so overwhelming as to make discussion of Moon Walk fraud nothing short of absurd in the eextreme.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 17:08
Oak (mozel) ID#240241:
Copyright © 1998 Oak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Let me get this right, Your saying that your smarter then all of the
worlds intelligence agencies Or are you saying that they all got
together & planned it together? And that we should ignore the 1,000's
of people who were personally involved in the space program? That they
were all brainwashed or hidden the truth? I'm sure there is a site
you can go to so you can discuss this with others who might actually care. Hell, I believe the world is round, never seen it myself of course,
could just be a bunch of faked photographs. I believe in gravity, though
I couldn't discuss why, except that I'm not falling off the ground when
I walk. So even if it was a fake, so what? Now, if you could discuss
the possibility of gold ore on other planets & the requirements to get
it, then I might start paying attention to what you had to say.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 17:00
skinny (just got back) ID#287114:
FROM checking with the common sense Gods... was informed that if a person responded to STUPIDITY,,, he may also become STUPID.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 16:58
DJ (Channels) ID#215208:
Copyright © 1998 DJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
EB - I'm still alive. Was badly bruised when my channels didn't hold up back when the PM's made new lows ( early Sept? ) . Since then I haven't been able to construct channels that I had confidence in, so haven't bothered to post.

I rely a lot on the relative movement of metals to provide the hints for constructing the channels. Lately, the movement has been wildly divergent.

I did manage to construct a channel that predicted the reversal in silver. Actually was short at 5.39 for a couple of days. However, I was spooked by the strength of gold, and covered the short at roughly breakeven. Sigh ......

Gold - Broke through the top of long-term down channel. Barely. But no follow-through. And Friday's action is ominous. I took profits on 50% of my RSA gold stocks and will be watching next weeks action closely.

Silver - As mentioned, the channel very accurately predicted the reversal. It now predicts silver will break 4.50 before the decline slows or reverses.

Platinum - Some hope, as PL did not follow silver to new lows. Also, PA broke out the top of the wedge pattern it was in. Will watch next week's action with interest.

Wild and wooly!!

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 16:37
Chicken man (IDT @ Market hours) ID#341297:
My broker told me...currencies and finacials closed..Wall street open..could be one heck of a bear trap...USA Today had good bull article in it on Fri...Rumor of another rate cut...nice chance to run the market up without the FX and the bonds getting in the way

Just a thought... Chicken man..

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 16:36
mozel (@Gianni There is also a Book of Kings in the Old Testament ) ID#153110:
which relates similarly to the frogs and the stork.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 16:30
mozel (@Ed Dames) ID#153110:
Is a spook.
The spooks own the Church of Scientology.
Hell, the markets so-called are spooked. A spook in France reports there is a spook in the Bundesbank telegraphing bank moves and strategies like they used to spy on troop movements and military strategies.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 16:23
mozel (@gagnrad @mobius) ID#153110:
I never wondered. Radiated heat which is not reflected will be absorbed. Ever walk on white sand at mid-day in summer on the Gulf ? Or put your hand on the chrome bumper of a white car then. The heat received in space is much higher. There is no night in the space from the earth to the moon.

Mobius, so, what ?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 16:21
Donald (@IDT) ID#26793:
Stocks are open; Treasury bonds are closed.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 16:04
IDT (Are the U.S. Markets open on Monday) ID#228128:
Can anyone tell me whether or not the U.S. stock markets are open on Monday? Since its Chris Columbus day I was wondering if they have the day off.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 15:59
Chicken man (Envy @ NICE stratagy!!!) ID#341297:
Copyright © 1998 Chicken man/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
WE're thinking along the same lines!!
Hope to buy the 128 Nov puts sometime Tue or Wed. Be nice to sneak them at less than $.10 again. 50 contracts @ $.10 would cost 5K ( plus tax,license and dealers prep-- ( commision ) little joke )
Check out the graph on interest rates... if rates go above 5.09--5.10% the long term trend line will be broken! Next stop for bonds would be 106-107 ( old weekly bottoms )
At that price, the boys ( and all their friends ) at LTCM would be setting pretty.IMHO..I still think they are short....power might have something to do with it!!!

Let's put ( haha ) a pencil to it...50 contracts times 20 ticks =1000...
Now a 1000 times a 1000.... can't figure... toooo many 0's nice to plunk that down on physical... maybe save a little for some cheap gold calls!!

Just a thought.. Chicken man
Gollum.....Where is that rattlesnake hiding?...Nothing like a snake bit to get one to panic!!....snicker..snicker

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 15:30
rich (How I got rich on gold calls and shorting the dow) ID#411320:
using my welfare checks. This way you can't loose...just the working
stiffs, and if I hit big I can still collect the checks,and if
I loose I still collect the checks. BE WISELY WORLDLY BE NOT
WORLDLY WISE it is kinda like corporate welfare. What do you financial
people think.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 15:26
morbius (@Mozel) ID#35757:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 15:15
Envy (Volatility) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
My strategy is to burn the rest of my gambling powder if we rally in the morning on S&P PUT options, far out-of-the-money, in what amounts to a crap shoot at a severe market decline over the next week or two. If it doesn't happen, oh well, that's why they call it gambling. If it does happen, I'll wait for a capitulation day when everyone claims the world is ending and society is going to have to learn to forage for food all over again, at which point I'll be selling my PUT options and purchasing CALLs against financials and the S&P. If that pans out ( an IF the size of Kansas ) , then I'll ride the rally up, sell my CALL options, and re-purchase PUT options against whatever rallied well and the S&P for liquidity reasons in anticipation of the decline that always happens after the rally that always happens after a big decline. During the rally I would also be watching bonds to see if they got massively inflated during a decline, then deflated during the rally - if that happens, after I sell the PUT options on the bounce, I'll be shorting the hell out of bonds based on the data gathered during the moves. The only certain thing that will happen is that I'll be watching South Park on Comedy Central next Saturday night like I did this past Saturday night - the question is whether I'll be watching with a little less money in my pocket or sitting there with a big fat bloated wad of cash whilst my girlfriend paws at me with lustful eyes.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 15:11
Jack (Wish I knew what goes on behind closed doors) ID#254288:
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

And I'm not talking about sex.

Just those 12,000,000 oz of silver that pushed the price down to $4.80 on friday. I offer two quesses, for what there worth, anyone else?

#1 Tiger Fund is believed to have lost over 20% of its portfolio while shorting the Yen during the past two months. Tiger also plays heavily as a long in precious metals and might have been forced out of some of its long silver positions.

#2 Some months ago it was reported here that Goldman Sachs took delivery of 20,000,000 oz of silver and it was never reflected in the Comex stocks. Perhaps the silver stood there in the same catagories and just changed ownership. Again when the 12 million oz transaction took place a namechange took place. Kind of how official gold is transfered at the NYFED.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 14:49
Cyclist (Volatility) ID#26467:
Copyright © 1998 Cyclist/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
FWIW.We going for a rough ride for the next two weeks.
I closed out my bankleaps last week that I bought past July and will get
some bank call options in light of Lehman's priceaction.
The US Treasury will not allow a single bank to go under and will do
anything to prevent this to happen.Liquidity is demanded and will be
provided.Gold will be manipulated downward and burned out of the
weak hands.At bottom it is difficult to buy wellrun gold stocks back.
My strategy is now to pick up those choice goldminers SGOLY/Harmony and short NEM,either through options or shares.If gold does go down to 285
in the next couple of weeks the downdraft in Newmont is going to be fierce.We still have to make a high sometimes in November.
I have trade goldstocks since '71 and it feels like a deja vu.
Big money is going to be made out of the junior gold mines in the next
two years,the small cap stocks will fly as well like LOR.
You are going to see the reliquification of the banks in a big way now,
that will ultimately sows the seeds for rampant inflation down the road.
To me SnP will go up from here and make a possible retest at the end of the month,after the congressional elections.The market will be considerable higher by the end of the year to prevent taxloss selling.
This is politics for you,the Administration have to look good in keeping
the Big SUrplus intact.If every body were selling their losses than the
budget would show a deficit.
Have a nice day and don't get to excited when gold falls out of bed.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 14:45
gagnrad (Mozel, you are funny sometimes!) ID#43460:
Ever wonder why there is so much white and reflective surface on spacecraft?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 14:45
Gianni Dioro (Rhody - your transaction tax) ID#384350:
Well I am certainly against a global transaction tax whose receipts would likely go to the UNITED NATIONS.

There is a fable about the frogs who asked for a king, and then they got what they asked for: a stork that came and ate them all.

It is a fable in french by La Fontaine. I wonder if there is an English equivalent ( Aesop ) .

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 14:42
gagnrad (Old Gold, Gollum, all, some historical links for a quiet Sunday) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I think one keyword some of you are striving for is carrying capacity and another is catastrophic failure. IMHO the problem is one of population exceeding carrying capacity, not be just population reduction, famine, nor downsizing but a more complex and chaotic future. I think that rather than global catastrophe there will be population displacement, areas of catastrophic failure and a trend toward evolutionary change. IMHO

What I mean is it would seem a possible future will include pockets of dieout, genocide, invasion and replacement of one population group with another. While we may continue to focus our worry, money and attention on Europe, US and Russia, I'd think the big pattern will be the an increasing displacement of ethnic Chinese southward, until the population of Australia will be mostly Chinese or perhaps displaced southeast Asians. ( Present day 'Stralians may be kept on as house pets. They are very likable and easy to train. ) I suspect the same will happen in central Africa as well, but there will probably be more of the Semitic ,Indian and European peoples there, perhaps ending with up to 30% mixed European and Mid Eastern and 20% Indian. IMHO

The Japanese may well continue on the forefront of the world for a while longer but their insular and racist nature points more toward continued confinement to their island, another violent breakout like their 1930's style invasions and subsequent defeat. Defeat by China will be much more thorough than WWII, and I'd anticipate they will suffer a fate similar to the Etruscans 2000+ years ago. ( There may be a second alternative for the Japanese. Their human ant farm probably has the only society which could succeed in space colonization within the next 20 years. More on this later if you are interested. ) IMHO

In the end there may be a few hundred thousand racial Africans in Africa left but they are on the decline due to aids and numerous other health related reasons. I believe their biggest 21st century stronghold will be in the US and Brazil, so mixed with Europeans to lose their distinctive racial characteristics, ending up as merely an extreme end of an ethnic moulage. Europe will take on a more Semitic culture, probably Turkish if I read the tea leaves right. IMHO

Well, here are a few links to titillate historical interest:

Linkpage re Irish Famine:

Background for discussion re US native genicides of 1600's through 1900's

One of many pages from the USC archives, discussing some social stresses of LA. As you know LA is the official US laboratory for social experimentation.

Basic junior high level intro to dark age tribes, recalling the end of the Roman empire.

Malthus' Essay

How does this apply to gold? Well I'm a firm believer that if society is truly falling downhill gold may be a crucial rappelling tool. But, as always pay no atention to Gagnrad. His musings are not meant as any sort of advice.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 14:40
Silverbaron (Market cycles - spot COMEX gold) ID#290456:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 14:36
Silverbaron (Hmmmm....Dr. Doom interviewed again on Art Bell) ID#290456:
Scroll down to Interview with Ed Dames on Oct. 1, 1998

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 14:32
Silverbaron (Yvan Auger's XAU Elliott Wave site updated) ID#290456:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 14:30
chas (Aurator Blowed if I know) ID#147201:
This is a real opportunity for the establishment of real ownership. Do you have any relationship with the natives in NZ? It looks like the fundamental ownership of minerals is up for grabs. I bet this has some application in Australia also. I have had some succes dealing with these problems in the USA. The situation is different, but the title to mineral rights is the fundamental ownership to deal with. What's up

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 14:20
EJ (rich ) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
That's what makes a horse race. Hope you're hedging your bets on a big stock market rally, tho. Something tells me that the stalwart long-term investor that got into the market in 1995 and is still looking at a nice, fat 70% increase in their paper value and is running out of confidence that they can do better than to take the profits now. And the folks that got in this year are looking at a nice opportunity to take a paper tax loss against real income for the 1998 tax year. The market was up a hundred plus points last week. What an excellent time to take Lynch's advice and sell on the rallies.

I also have another theory about why the mutual fund investor has been hanging in there so far through this bear market. The reason is that they're too preoccupied with other things, especially their 80 hour work seek, to act on their beliefs. That's why they got into mutual funds in the first place. But here in the states they have Monday off, but the markets are open. After reading the papers and talking it over with the spouse, Monday's a good day to take action.

Pure speculation, of course. Perhaps wishful thinking for a holder of BEARX. On the other hand, stock market bull Leon Cooperman has this to say in this week's Barron's:

I want to point out that the dramatic narrowing of the market's breadth warrants concern. Put another way, the problem is that the valuations of some high-profile, mega-capitalization stocks still do not reflect a lot of the bad news we've been discussing. The reason the S&P 500 and the DJIA are still up for the year is that a few winners have driven those indexes [see table A]. If we were to exclude a very short list of companies, the market's overall performance would be a lot worse. Specifically, just five stocks -- Dell, Lucent, Microsoft, Pfizer and Their median return, through that date, was 75%, versus a median return on the other 495 stocks in the index of a negative 6.1%. Need I add that a lack of market breadth frequently signals a bear market?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 14:16
2BR02B? () ID#266105:

This moon landing debate hoax cannot long survive in
such utter ( ed ) vacuousness. Surely it never happened.

And don't call me Shirley.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 13:51
mozel (@Mobius @Gollum) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Deep space between earth and the moon is a perfect insulating vacuum. ( Earth orbit is not. ) In such a vacuum heat is gained and lost only by radiation. We know this because of experiments with vacuum on earth. See the thermos for a practical, insulating application of an imperfect vacuum. The amount of radiated heat to which an object is exposed in the deep space between earth and moon is much more than that to which an object is exposed on earth in the hotest place on the hottest day of the year. Because the absorning mantle of gases which is earth's atmosphere is not present. Radiated heat that is not reflected by an object is absorbed. The problem with man in that perfect insulating vacuum is that, absent countermeasures, he will overheat to death merely from the accumulation of his own body heat. The great amount of radiated heat which will be absorbed by his suit or craft adds to the task for the countermeasures. Nobody will bring any science to the table on this issue because the technology of the 1960's and the size and design of the craft that was supposed to have taken a man to the moon won't support the burden of the life support countermeasures required.

The Moon Walk Fraud was simply another Lie necessary to win The Cold War. It demonstrated the superiority of our System and influenced minds to our side.

@Gollum Be specific in showing the faults you allege to be present in my understanding of vacuum physics and radiated heat.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 13:23
Delphi (Russia to Mint Gold Coins from Reserves (hope, was not posted before)) ID#258142:
Copyright © 1998 Delphi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
MOSCOW, Oct. 09, 1998 -- ( Reuters ) Russia plans to boost its budget and
guarantee bank reserves by minting gold coins from central bank reserves,
the leading business newspaper Kommersant Daily said on Friday.
The newspaper, which cited unnamed sources in the government and
central bank, said that according to a draft government resolution, 20
tonnes of reserves would be used by the end of the year but up to 200
tonnes could be used in all.
The Russian government is scrambling for funds to finance a budget deficit of almost 100 billion rubles planned for the fourth quarter of the year.
The plans call for the issue of coins of six grams of 583 purity with a 10 ruble value as legal tender but a metallic value of 1,000 rubles, and coins of 15 grams of 999 purity with a face value of 100 rubles and a metallic value of 5,000 rubles.
The paper said the first stage of the project would bring the budget 5 billion rubles. Of this, 3 billion would be used to guarantee private bank deposits, 1 billion to pay wage arrears and 1 billion to pay off government GKO t-bill debts.
Commersant said the decision had been taken as gold was the only item of
value in the central bank's reserves.
But it could not be sold abroad for fear of flooding the market and could
not be used as loan collateral abroad for fear the gold would be seized to pay debts. The paper added that the chance of the resolution being
approved was extremely high.
Russia in mid-August froze its once booming GKO t-bill and OFZ bond
arket pending a restructuring and is now more or less shut off from
financing via the international capital markets.
The head of the central bank's precious metals operations said in
September that the bank had gold reserves of more than 500 tonnes.
$=15.82 ( ( c ) 1998 Reuters )

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 13:22
Xenna (Obsidian: Gold options) ID#133136:
The site for gold option quotes is

I got myself some ( Y2K ) Dec 99 390 calls this july so I've been watching the option price movements on that one. The picture below is a graph of the POG with a graph of the gc9z290c option price and the trading volume.

There are some interesting spikes in the middle of august. Maybe someone with a lot more cash toplay with than me placed a little bet of $500K.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 13:19
rhody (@ Donald: thank you for your 9:02 posting on the subject of the) ID#411440:
Copyright © 1998 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Tobin Tax. I mentioned this last spring, and got no reaction from
this forum. Perhaps insufficient people understood the implications
of the tax, and although in trouble, the world was not at the edge
of a financial abyss. Now it is. It's time to introduce the tax.
The ordinary citizen would hardly notice the tax, but Soros, and his
like, and bankers would be sharply limited by a hit in the only area
they care about: the bottom line.

The world financial crisis is a product of flat money, and too much
credit. The Tobin Tax would tend to direct money into directions
more condusive to economic growth and the well-being of communities
which actually operate the economic activity.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 13:18
morbius (oops..) ID#35757:
Mark McGuire:Babe Ruth :: Bill Clinton:Harry Houdini

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 13:18
The Hatt (Sounds to me like we have many weak hands this weekend!) ID#294232:
Copyright © 1998 The Hatt/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It never ceases to amaze me how investors move from one extreme to the other and it even more amazes me how goldbugs are so easily shaken out of their positions. The tone on this discussion group has in many cases done an about face after a $3.50 drop in the POG on what I might add was light volume. The gold stocks fell on even lighter volumes. Should gold move back over three hundred next week we will probably see another about face and that just tells me that many in this group are not true goldbugs. That in itself is alright however one should recognise these eratic shifts and understand these posters donot understand the true meaning of why one should be in gold!
For those that brag of their short term trading gains I would love to track their follow-up posts should out of the blue we have a limit up day! Gold always has a way of shaking out the weak hands and Fridays action was in my opinion just that! Yes gold may go back to the $290.00 level but to the true goldbug it is of little concern. With major producers hedged out as far as ten years one does not need much more evidence that this ponzi game is about to end. Murphys post on the fed attempting to coerce sales just makes me that much more BULLISH! Waving credit lines is a form of desperation and extraordinary actions. If one were to relate this to the equities it would be the same as waving all margin requirements on Dell. Would that be viewed as opportunity or would that raise the red flags!
Shoes are ready to drop throughout the world and short term trading has never before carried more risk! The credit crunch has already taken its place as is evidenced by the fact that there is NO MARKET AT ALL for Corporate Paper! Has it reached the consumer level? Yes, in Canada Canada Trust has pulled its car loans off the table! They will not lend money for the purchase of a new vehicle! My how things have changed. A year ago Alan Greenspan was God, Bill Clinton was untouchable and John Merriwether was rich! Now look at them.
The price of the dow in gold chart has topped and should be studied by all! The previous corrections have since 1925 always been swift and forceful.Look at the coin sales as have been reported on this forum. Sales on a monthly basis have in some cases reached previous yearly levels. Blanchard reports his August sales were more than his entire forcasted quarterly projections! Now what do you think will happen when the baby boomer population decides that it is prudent to own gold and silver? My opinion is we are about to witness the bull of all bulls as scared fiat chases what we all know is the only real true currency.....

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 13:17
morbius (@Gollum) ID#35757:
Mark McGuire:Babe Ruth :: Harry Houdini:Bill Clinton

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 13:14
Gollum (Away for real this time.) ID#43349:
I got delayed by the Rottweiler getting off her chain and refusing to come when called. The old offer-her-a-car-ride trick worked once again however.

She somehow has figured out how to work the little clasp thingee. Amazing. So now I have everything so bolted together I will have to change her name to Houdini if she gets off.


Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 13:10
Gollum (@mozel ) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sorry, but I neither affirm nor deny. I have looked at both sides and you offer nothing convincing. If you can offer sufficiently convincing evidence to outweigh the oppostion or sufficiently damning evidence to discredit the oppostion I will be quite happy to believe the moon landing was a hoax.

So far on their side there are tons of muntually supporting and non-contradictory evidence. There is actual equipment known to have been placed at the site in question, lunar samples brought back, etc, ad infinitem.

So far on your side is an exhibited lack of knowledge of vacuum physics and indomitable skepticism.

So what else can you offer?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 13:06
rich (@gwyz yeah like what kind of week?) ID#411320:
Stock market making new highs and gold going down to $
mean that kind a weak?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 13:06
rich (@gwyz yeah like what kind of week?) ID#411320:
Stock market making new highs and gold going down to $
mean that kind a weak?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 13:05
morbius (@mozel) ID#35757:
I read your posts day after day. You are obviously very intelligent ( vacuum is an insulator ) : Therefore you could not possibly believe the theory you propose ( it would get too hot on the moon ) . There is no question then : You are pulling our legs ( the moonwalk was a hoax )

QED ( ain’t logic great? )

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 12:58
SDRer (Canada--folks, it looks like Elizabeth owns it! From mineral rights to the anthem) ID#290172:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
( B ) to a place outside Canada from any area of land not within a province that belongs to Her Majesty in right of Canada or in respect of which Her Majesty in right of Canada has the right to dispose of or exploit the natural resources and that is situated in those submarine areas adjacent to the coast of Canada and extending throughout the natural prolongation of the land territory of Canada to the outer edge of the continental margin or to a distance of two hundred nautical miles from the baselines from which the breadth of the territorial sea of Canada is measured, whichever is greater, or

( 2 ) Fees, levies or charges imposed under this section constitute a debt due to Her Majesty in right of Canada and may be recovered as such in any court of competent jurisdiction.

This Act may be cited as the Escheats Act. Escheat 2. Where Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada is entitled to any land or other real or personal property by reason of the person last seised or entitled thereto having died intestate and without lawful heirs or by reason of any corporation, association or society having been finally dissolved or wound up or having ceased to exist, the...

God Save The Queen was found to be in the public domain as the Royal Anthem of Canada, but for O Canada the committee deemed it essential to take such steps as necessary to appropriate the copyright to the music providing that it shall belong to Her Majesty in right of Canada for all time. This provision would also include that no other person shall be entitled to copyright in the music or any arrangements or adaptations thereof.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 12:56
morbius (@mozel) ID#35757:
I read your posts day after day. You are obviously very intelligent ( vacuum is an insulator ) : Therefore you could not possibly believe the theory you propose ( it would get too hot on the moon ) . There is no question then : You are pulling our legs ( the moonwalk was a hoax )

QED ( ain’t logic great? )

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 12:53
EJ (Donald Thx for all the great posts today) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I'm trying to work an arrangement to export software to a Brazilian distributor. Want to guess what the import duties are? 80% And with short term interest at 50%, the cost of money is so high they have to provide goods to their resellers on consignment; the resellers can't afford the float on the inventory. I don't see how Brazil is any kind of export market for the US today. As an investment opportunity Brazil is already a basket case.

Looks like the IMF and World Bank will come up with $30B by year end, but they need at least $80B. Everyone seems to be hoping for a short-term solution to Brazil's problems. I don't get it.


Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 12:40
Donald (Russia to mint gold coins from Central Bank reserves. 20 ton min., up to 200 ton) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 12:40
mozel (@Gollum The Believer @Perfidious Albion In Right of Canada) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
He who affirms has the burden of proof. It is you, the believer, who is affirming that man walked on the moon. You must come up with something better by way of explaining the science of the life support that kept your man alive in that perfect insulating vacuum utterly exposed to raw sun in great gobs of radiated heat and utterly exposed to other waves or particles of radiation from all around.

@In Right of Canada I conjecture Her Majesty is exercising a right retained as Sovereign in the treaty with her dominion, Canada. ( I wonder what Her Majesty will do with $2 Billion to earn 5.X% per annum. Lend it to Parliament for 7.X% per annum ? )

Perfidious Albion retained rights in the Treaty of Paris that was signed by Sam Huntington, President. If you haven't read it, you are still unaware of facts in the founding of this government that you were not taught in the government school. The federalists were much less than completely forthcoming about their motives in urging ratification of the Constitution.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 12:37
Gollum (Away to see what else goes on today) ID#43349:
I'll be back tonight.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 12:35
SDRer (Her Majesty in Right of Canada) ID#290172:

So far-this is all I've got…
Relief from Forfeiture
145. The Minister may, at any time after an application has been made under section 144, order the thing seized to be returned to the applicant if security is given to Her Majesty in right of Canada in a form and amount that is satisfactory to the Minister.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 12:34
Gollum (@sharefin ) ID#43349:
I wonder how many paper Rubles there will be to the Gold Ruble?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 12:30
sharefin (Snipped from email) ID#284255:
In a suprise move, Finance minister Yuri Primakov announced that
on January 1, Russia will begin issuing gold coin Rubles to it's
citizens as a substitute for the worthless paper Ruble currency in
circulation. This is being done to set a new benchmark of value for Russia's cur
In opening Russia's large gold metal reserves, several sizes of coins will
be issued. 10/9/98 ITN News

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 12:29
Donald (Brazilian auto sales and production plunge for 11th consecutive month.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 12:28
SDRer (CHRISTO) ID#290172:
Try Mark Twain Bank--can denominate in any currency in small amounts

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 12:21
Gollum (@mozel ) ID#43349:
It's stil just not creditable. You'll have to come up with something better.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 12:20
CHRISTO (Suspicious & all) ID#330209:
Any idea how I can get exposure to Swiss currency or bonds in the US?
Thanks in advance.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 12:20
Donald (@Wert: always thought ANOTHER was wrong about oil & gold. Deflation reduces demand) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 12:16
mozel (@SDRer @Donald) ID#153110:
I didn't even know Globes could issue notes.
Sounds like something the Shakespearean Company might have underwritten. ( Maybe, corrected for time, it is. )

If you ever do decode the phrase Her Majesty In Right of Canada, I sure want to read about it.

Donald, Hoover Flags started flying not too awfully long after the tune Anything Goes was popular, as I recall. Deja vu ?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 12:09
OLD GOLD (Eve of Destruction) ID#242325:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

October 10, 1998

The eve of destruction?

The world financial system, at the best of times a shaky house of cards, could collapse if a
few big institutions suddenly go under

Contributing Foreign Editor
Ends of millennia are scary times. In October, 998 AD, most people in Europe were convinced the world was
about to end, and they were headed for hell. Comets, visions of monsters, angels and fiends were
commonplace. Strange cults flourished.
A thousand years later, people are acting just as jittery and weird. Many believe the world - or at least the
financial world - is doomed and punishment is at hand for the mortal sin of greed. The Princess Di cult now
rivals the Virgin Mary. UFOs have replaced angels and fiends. A rumpled economist named Alan Greenspan
speaks with the solemn authority and majesty of medieval popes.
Last week, Pope Greenspan proclaimed to the world that while the U.S. economy was still healthy, the
outlook had weakened measurably. He hinted interest rates would be further cut in coming months. Shortly
after, leading American analysts predicted the U.S. would slip into recession in 1999.
Scary psychology was driving markets down more than they deserved, Greenspan explained. Indeed. Over the past month
the eternal yin and yang of investing - greed vs. fear - has tilted firmly to the latter. All stock markets are speculative bubbles.
So, to a lesser degree, are banks. Healthy finances depend on confidence, and anticipation of future profits.
Optimism has run out from New York to Tokyo. What began last year as a tiny paper cut in Thailand has turned into massive
systemic gangrene. The world economy is in recession. Markets are dropping. Hedge funds and banks are registering almost
inconceivably large losses. Not since the Great Depression has the international economy been so battered and demoralized.

Asian trouble
Japan is a mess. The government is hinting it will pump 10 trillion yen ( US$76.8 billion ) of taxpayers' money into the
insolvent banking system. But previous attempts to kick start the economy have been expensive fiascos. The rest of Asia is in
worse shape. Near-bankrupt South Korea seems jinxed: recent floods wiped out half the nation's crops.
Russia has defaulted, leaving western bankers, who should have known better, with $100 billion in bad loans. Brazil, 45% of
Latin America's economy, is hanging on by its fingernails. A meltdown in Brazil would be a calamity for U.S. businesses and
banks, whose exports and loan exposure to Latin America exceed those to Asia.
In spite of the pounding they have recently taken, U.S. stock markets may still be overvalued by 15%. Corporate earnings are
falling. No one knows how many new financial land mines are waiting to explode - like Long Term Capital Management, the
mysterious hedge fund that went broke to the tune of $100 billion the week before last, nearly bringing down the world financial
Frightened investors everywhere are dumping stocks and pouring their money into the safety of U.S. Treasury paper - which
has replaced gold as the premier medium of value. ( Pre-Trudeau Canadian securities were once considered an even safer haven
than U.S. bonds and currency. ) Bankers are restricting loans. New stock issues are being withdrawn.
Commodities have dropped to levels unseen since the 1930s. Prices for industrial goods are also falling. In effect, decades of
accumulated inflation are being purged from the world economy by growing recession and deflation.
The gathering momentum of worldwide deflation, and an investors' flight to safety, is producing a dangerous credit crunch.
Banks are not lending. Stock and bond markets, which have replaced banks as the main source of capital, have ceased
producing capital. The primary force of economic growth, consumer spending, is slowing fast. Real estate may be the next
investment to drop. Cash is king.
As the world economy contracts, finance ministers met last week in Washington at the International Monetary Fund to plan a
rescue. They failed. The reason: there is simply no effective political leadership among the world's leading industrial powers.
In the U.S., the Clinton administration in paralyzed by scandal. Japan, the world's second largest economy, is semi-comatose.
Its ineffectual government is viewed with deserved contempt. Europe, saddled with chronic high unemployment and bloated
welfare states, seems headed into recession.

Canadian leaders inept
Canada's inept political leaders and central bank have badly damaged its economy by allowing the Canadian dollar to free-fall.
Punishing taxes, an all-devouring federal government, and falling productivity are turning Canada into a Third World nation. By
contrast, Brazil's President Cardoso and, ironically, China's Communist leadership are taking forceful measures to combat the
world financial storm by cutting government spending, reducing bureaucracy and, when necessary, raising interest rates to fight
currency speculators.
Fortunately, the United States still has the highly capable Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, and Treasury
Secretary Robert Rubin running economic policy. The U.S. and Europe could remain havens of security in a sea of storms. But
much of the rest of the world is in big trouble.
Last week, delegates at the IMF meeting called for a new international financial architecture based on far greater transparency,
and standardized accounting rules.
A laudable idea.
But the danger remains that the world financial system, at the best of times a shaky house of cards, could collapse if a few big
institutions suddenly go under. The free-fall of Brazil's currency, huge surprise losses by a big American bank, another hedge
fund horror, or collapse of major financial institutions in Japan could set off a lightning chain reaction of called-in loans that
might topple the already unsteady banking system. This, not wobbly stock markets, is the principal danger.
Deflation, a credit crunch, huge loan defaults, investor fear, and consumer worry all add up to really bad mogambo.
Taking advantage of the current disarray of world capitalism, left-wingers are pouring out of the woodwork, gleefully
demanding bigger government, more controls of capital and restrictions on its international flow. These jejune socialist nostrums
are not the answers. Nor are exchange controls and unconvertible currencies.
To paraphrase Winston Churchill on democracy, capitalism is the worst system there is - except for all the others.
Like even the best cars, capitalism occasionally breaks down. Still, democracy and capitalism remain the greatest engines for
personal enrichment and human progress the world has ever seen.
We need better accounting, open books, and bankers who know something about the outside world, not more government
bureaucrats restricting commerce and investment.

No more free lunch
We need political leaders who have the courage to ignore polls and do the right thing by telling voters the era of the government
free lunch is over.
The market system, like love and life, moves in cycles. Some are up, some flat, others down. Forget all the recent bunkum
about paradigm shifts and globalization. When speculation outruns sensible investment - such as recent 30% annual returns
from stocks - the Grim Reaper of economic reality always steps in.
The go-go era that began in 1991 is over. What goes up, comes down. Markets will stay dangerously turbulent for the next 3-6
months. By next year, 5% may look like a great return. Twentysomething brokers will no longer make $2 million annually
peddling stocks to the unwary. Risk, a word that has largely disappeared from our vocabulary when talking about investing or
personal behaviour, will again become current.
The world is not really coming to an end. In 18-24 months - or even sooner - the global economy, its speculative dross burned
away by recession, should revive and grow to new heights. Until then the byword is caution, more caution, always caution.
All those speculators who are now gnashing their teeth and wailing they should have gotten out sooner ought to recall the reply
of famed financier Bernard Baruch when asked how he got so rich: By always selling too soon.

Eric can be reached by e-mail at
Letters to the editor should be sent to

CANOE home Columnists CNEWS / SLAM! Sports / Jam! Showbiz / Money / Search / Help

Sun Media: Calgary Sun / Edmonton Sun / Ottawa Sun / Toronto Sun / London Free Press / Financial Post

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 12:09
wert (Donald ) ID#243250:
Copyright © 1998 wert/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thanks for all the Reuters finance posts , you make a very valuable research contribution to this site in this regard. I'm in the oil buz.and a couple of the articles caught my attention. Unfortunately flat demand curves 12 to 18 mos. out and the harsh reality of of lower financial returns caused by low crude prices are what the game is all about these days. Not to overstate the obvious but the commodity business faces the spector of over production worldwide. Who said oil and Au can't flow in the same direction at the same time! As indicators in our industry I tend to watch for trends or sign posts such as downsizing,a narrowing in the heavyoil light crude pricing gap and finding/production costs. Normally things get better after these shake-outs.
As this is a webpage divoted to Au. discussions, to stay on topic, let me conclude by saying the following: calls & puts are a mugs game unless you have a significant share position, powder should be dry by now, watch the CRB index for trends , stick to what you know best from an analyitical view point, watch yield curves,lease rates and always help old ladys cross the street. This is my HOO.but looking forward my bet is that it aint going to be pretty and I really hope I loose the bet.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 11:57
Mole (Perfidious Albion) ID#34883:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 11:56
mozel (@Gollum) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Was cost ever any obstacle to expenditures for national security reasons during the Cold War ? Get serious. Do you really believe USG has published anything budgetary of a truthful nature for some time ? Force and fraud are cardinal in war. War is the art of deception. USG is on a war footing, Gollum, and has made no secret of it. Like most Americans you seem to labor under the misconception that there is some legal requirement for those in government to tell you the truth. Nothing could be further from the truth. It is a settled point of law that, if duly authorized, people in government can lie to you about anything at any time so long as they are not under oath or creating a public record. Ever hear of undercover agents ? BTW NASA makes a point of emphasizing the fact that the Moon Walk ( Fraud ) had no legal significance whatsoever because of the terms of the space treaty'.

What is not credible to me is the lack of scientific explanation and fact about life support during the Moon Walk Fraud and when the NASA assisted movie of Apollo 13 suggests cold space, my suspicion antennae are put on red alert, because that is an outright lie. Then, the harder you look, the less conclusive is the photo evidence.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 11:53
SDRer (One felt sure that we would get round to the Tobin Tax eventually.) ID#286249:

Remember Carl? )
Would like to point out that Dr. Tobin is also a Nobel Laureate.
The Tobin tax, named after James Tobin, the Nobel Laureate economics professor from Yale who first proposed it, is a 1/4 of 1% tax on the purchase of national currencies.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 11:51
2BR02B? (Harmony 10/11/98) ID#266105:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 11:43
SDRer (A question -) ID#286249:

JP Morgan issued US $2,000,000,000 in 5 ¾ Global notes due 2003 labeled as follows: Her Majesty in Right of Canada

What exactly ( or 'inexactly' for that matter ) does this mean?

Donald@DCR Frankly, the awful Mae family has been at the trough so frequently, and slurping up soooo much, that eyebrows are raised about
their health too...just concerned lil whispers...

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 11:38
mozel (@Gollum) ID#153110:
Is there a word for the concept of having actions coincide in time ? Plan, maybe ? You know, I'm sure, that the magician puts things up his sleeve before the performance.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 11:35
Gollum (@mozel) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I have checked out some of the sites that have evidence the moon landing was faked. As well as many sites discussing the landing. I am afraid that in any court of law, the theory that the moon landing was faked would fail miserably.

There are the rock samples, the various pieces of experimental equipment left behind, the tapes and recordings collected by both proffesionals and amatuers on the side of it being a fact, and a collection of arguements varying from absurd to ludicrous on the side of it being a fake.

Then there is the matter of cost. The cost of faking everything even to the point of fooling foreign governments listening in who would have LOVED to have detected a fake is so high, it would be far chepar to just DO it.

There is also the matter of being able to keep it concealed and covered up by all those involved for all these years by people who can't even hide what they do with their cigars in private.

It's just not creditable.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 11:28
ALBERICH (Demand for gold coins was higher than ever before...) ID#254112:
during the last weeks.
This told me a gold and coins dealer in Maryland's Coins Exchange store
last Friday. They had no gold coins available and had to order from a central deposit to satisfy customer demand. I bought five Kruegerrand for my kids.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 11:24
Gollum (@mozel) ID#43349:
Apparently it was put there at exactly the time and the place the faked landing was taking place as the whole world watched. Quite a coincidence, no?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 11:22
mozel (@Gollum) ID#153110:
There is no dispute that equipment can be put into space. Or onto the surface of the moon or another planet.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 11:08
Donald (Duff & Phelps downgrades several mortgage companies. MUST READ reasons why!) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 11:08
Gollum (Apollo Laser Ranging Experiments) ID#43349:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 11:02
Gollum (Moon Geology) ID#43349:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 11:02
Donald (Steel companies being downgraded; here is just one. Read why.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 11:00
Suspicious (Dear Mr. Greenspan,) ID#285121:
Please lower interest rates as much as possible. I love what it did for my Swiss Francs.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 10:57
Donald (Duff & Phelps downgrades many Brazilian deals. Read the list of reasons why.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 10:54
Mole (@Rhody) ID#34883:
Another central planner comes out of the woodwork.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 10:51
Gollum (Antarctic Geology) ID#43349:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 10:50
Donald (@Rhody, @Mozel) ID#26793:
Rhody: my post at 9:02 has information about the Tobin Tax.

Mozel: wearing the flag; in the Great Depression out of work men would walk around with their pants pocket lining sticking out. They were called Hoover Flags

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 10:42
Donald (Lower oil prices causing credit rating downgrades of oil producers) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 10:40
mozel (@Rocky Wearing The Flag A.K.A. Nick@C) ID#153110:
If I wanted rock which I could present to the world as moon rock without any fear of contradiction, I would obtain it from Antartica where noone goes to research without a government permit and NATIONAL SECURITY CLEARANCE. Lots of old volcano areas there. As old as the moon, I would imagine.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 10:40
rhody (To all: The world does not need exchange controls. the world) ID#411440:
needs the Tobin Tax. ( It's a small fractional %tage levey on all
financial transactions ) Govt. deficits would melt away in a few
years with the extra revenue. Bankers turn purple if you just
mention the word tobin. Browse it out. The fact that nobody
has mentioned this, is an indication how corrupted ( and subservient )
gov'ts have become to the financial institutions in their respective

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 10:33
Donald (Meet the latest victims of DEFLATION) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 10:30
wert (Rumpled 9:20 post) ID#240230:
Yes, the CND markets are closed on Monday its our Thanksgiving Day.We here in the great white North preceed ( anticipate ) most actions in North America by at least ONE month.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 10:28
Donald (There is serious overcapacity in the Japanese banking system) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 10:26
mozel (@Razzle Dazzle) ID#153110:
But, Captain, there was nothing there just a moment ago ! It's impossible for them to fool me and my eyes. Ancestor of Nick

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 10:23
gwyz (Hey everybody...) ID#432130:
ready for a wild week? Here it comes!

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 09:34
Tantalus (A large bow to the Baron of Silver) ID#370236:
Purchased some physical last week. My timing was probably horrible,
as usual. But got it for the long haul, so that temporary ups & downs
are of no consequence.
In any case, i used much of the info you supplied to me here in July.
- THANQ & Best Regards

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 09:30
Gollum (Meanwhile back at the EU) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
EU fin mins to exempt investment gold from VAT
08:21 a.m. Oct 09, 1998 Eastern
BRUSSELS, Oct 9 ( Reuters ) - Investment gold traded anywhere in the European Union will be exempted from value-added tax from January 1, 2000 under a long-awaited law due to be adopted next Monday by EU finance ministers, officials said on Friday.

Ministers will separately review Finnish and Greek budgetary forecasts, the first to be examined under the EU's stability and growth pact, and discuss the possibility of extending European Investment Bank ( EIB ) loans to Russia, they said.

Ministers from Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein will also join their EU partners for lunch for a debate on international currency turmoil, the officials said.

The proposal on investment gold -- which has been on the EU's legislative table since 1992 -- lays down guidelines for the tax treatment of gold used for investment and industrial purposes.

Under the directive, investment gold is defined as coming in wafer or bar form in weights recognised by the market and having a purity of at least 995/1000.

Gold coins are also covered if they meet certain criteria. These are: a purity greater than 990/1000; that they were minted after 1800; were legal tender in their country of origin; and that their price does not exceed the open market value of the gold they contain by more than 80 percent.

The EU will draw up a list before July 1 each year, starting in 1999, of the coins that meet the criteria.

The directive, a copy of which was obtained by Reuters, says EU countries ``shall exempt from value-added tax the supply, intra-EU acquisition and importation of investment gold, including investment gold represented by certificates for allocated or unallocated gold or traded on gold accounts.''

It says the law also covers gold loans and swaps, as well as futures and forwards contracts which would involve or affect ownership of the underlying metal.

Britain, which revived the long-dormant directive during its six-month EU presidency which ended in July, won clauses in the text to protect the existing operating procedures of the London Bullion Market, one official said.

However, all traders of gold in the EU will be obliged to keep records allowing them to identify customers involved in ``substantial transactions'' for up to five years, or similar rules to prevent money laundering.

German officials said on Friday that acting Finance Minister Theo Waigel would attend the EU meeting for the last time following last month's general election. Waigel is the EU's longest-serving finance minister.

( ( Nick Antonovics, Brussels Newsroom +32 2 287 6830, fax +32 2
230 5573, ) )

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 09:22
Silverbaron (John Disney @ XAU vs HM options) ID#273432:

Yes - my observation of HM options over the last couple weeks indicates that there is not much volume there as compared to the XAU options.

I'll give it another look before buying. I also like Cyclist's suggestion of NEM puts ( or maybe HUI index puts would be good ) .

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 09:20
Rumpled (Are the CDN markets closed tomorrow?--Thanks.) ID#411251:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 09:15
Gollum (Telling it like it is) ID#43349:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 09:15
Tantalus (I tried to purchase some pre-1933 US$20 Liberty coins last week.) ID#370236:
The lovely lady on the phone said that they had none to sell, and have
not had any available for over a month now. She could not even give me a
price on them.
What's the price of gold? Hmmmmmmmm

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 09:02
Donald (Recent ASEAN experience shows that all third world countries should have currency controls) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 08:55
Gollum (Oh yes, almost forgot) ID#43349:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 08:54
JTF (See you all later ) ID#254321:
The 'Real Boss' beckons -- chores yet again.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 08:54
Gollum (The dip) ID#43349:
I have noticed that whenever the precious metals make a significant move upward they precede it with a vicious dip in prices. At the end of August we saw this happen, the again a few weeks later, and now a sharp drop in silver ans gold prices Friday.

Jims mentioned The Privateer's site this morning. It seems worthwhile to examine the gold market bottoms they show.

Then sit back and wait for Monday.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 08:51
JTF (IMF supporting Banks only) ID#254321:
Bill in Oregon: Sadly, you are right. I was referring to the people that make up the economic system that makes it all work. It is ludicrous just to support the banks.

All: Just upgraded to a P166 with 10ns ram for $400 ( 86MHz memory bus ) -- posting is now a pleasure instead of a chore. Can't afford PII's for every one in family.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 08:46
JTF (Why all the flap now about Capital Exchange controls?) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: Beside the obvious bit with the financial dominoe effect beginning with SEAsia, much of the more recent talk may be rising fear of more US dollar turmoil. The US dollar has dropped from 102 to 92 in about a month -- and this alone is bound to cause economic disruptions. Even if US interest rates go down, not up -- for now, anyway.

The dollar drop is almost certainly derivatives related -- everything is interconnected anyway. Wonder when the next liquidity crisis will turn up. The next one is likely to be more than a twitch.

The Gold bug Tsunami is getting more turbulent -- easier I think to get smashed against the sand.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 08:41
BillinOregon (JTF) ID#262242:
I would like to disagree with your last sentence. Certainly not the IMF, whose track record is no wins no draws -- all losses. There have been big wins, the banks that were owed the money

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 08:35
JTF (International Capital Flow controls requested?) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Good morning Donald! I've been busy with work/projects. Looks like we are repeating the 1929 scenario with a new wrinkle -- capital exchange controls, rather than trade wars -- for the moment, anyway. Not a good sign. Guess the worldwide financial crisis is upon us, and the 'powers that be' are worried that their ( foreign investor ) liquidity will wind up on the wrong country -- not theirs. Could be that South America is moving closer to the brink. Will be interesting to see if the G-7 ( ? ) panics enough to sell the IMF gold. Possible.

Well -- if this is serious ( and it probably is ) there will soon be a massive sucking sound as any investors remaining in foreign countries exit to avoid getting caught on the wrong side of the fence before the curtains come down.

I don't see any way free trade between countries can continue, if every one clamors for capital flow controls. As we know very well, the 'powers that be' do not understand that the problem is with the fiat/debt economic system -- they are defending something that is dying -- and exchange controls will probably hasten its demise. At best, the world's economic systems will become more severely distorted by 'well meaning' governments -- not less.

If the 'economic domino' proces that began in SEAsia contines, South America will be next, and then Europe. Somewhere in all of this we will hear more of India and Pakistan, and then the US will be last, once again. Wish there was some 'White Night' who could step to the fore and solve all the problems -- but there just isn't anyone out there with the 'right stuff'. Certainly not the IMF, whose track record is no wins no draws -- all losses.

But then -- we should be very careful to support just any White Night -- as he/she may be a Trojan Horse.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 08:32
Gollum (@jims ) ID#43349:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 08:12
jims (Privateer URL ) ID#252391:
Anybody have the Privateer URL - I must have the wrong spelling or something...I put up and I get an X rated page with teenage girls which is almost as exciting as this absurdity of capital controls and Pakistan going on the gold standard.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 08:08
Greenstone Gold (G'Nite....) ID#428218:

A Scotsman and a Jew went to a restaurant. After a hearty meal, the waitress came by with the inevitable check. To the amazement of all, the Scotsman was heard to say, I'll pay it!, and he actually did.

The next morning's newspaper carried the news item:



Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 08:07
jims (Everybody in favor of Capital Controls..) ID#252391:
yet Japan needs 500 billion to fix one trillion banking problem. Guess they can home grow those monies.....

Keep the absurdity coming Donald . . this stuff is brazaro....

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 07:55
Greenstone Gold (Donald.........Pakistan does not have much gold....) ID#428218:

No recent production is recorded, with the eception of small alluvial diggings.

The largest resource is the Saindak copper-gold-silver orebody in Baluchistan, near the Iran and Afghanistan border. it has a resource of 412 million tonnes @ 0.38% copper, 0.005oz/tonne gold, and 0.009 oz/tonne silver. Annual production of gold is anticipated at 47 000 oz per annum.

Gold Dinar....... I don't think so..........

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 07:18
Donald (Japan needs US$580 billion to fix US$1 trillion banking problem. ) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 07:09
Donald (India calls for international capital flow controls) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 07:01
Donald (Pakistan scraps constitution, will rule from Koran. Gold dinars any day now?) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 06:59
jims (The stopping of Hot Money) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Get on the bandwagon. .. everybody is going to stop excessive money flows - its the new politically correct thing to suggest. From the French minister on the subject:

``Governments and central banks should avoid everything which could contribute to volatility of exchange rates between the dollar and European currencies or which could cause excessive exchange rate movements. I know the new German authorities share this concern,''
he said.

Now what are all those things that are going to diminish volatility
Wasn't it the restriction of trade that brought on the Great Depression.? Are we seeing the 21st century's version of the same thing? Currency flow restrictions. All we need is for governments deciding what is and is not a suitable reason to buy and sell another currency.

One positive for gold - if money can't go running after the best interest rate ( more the case back in the late 70's ) maybe it will sit at home in gold. Ouch!!!!!!!!!!!!

This increasing madness of the world's stage is deflationary, depressionary, destructive.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 06:49
Donald (Brazil interest rates to stay at 50%; Brazil President called IMF puppet.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 06:45
jims (Gold in Swiss Francs makes new 22 month low) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Who needs this barbaric relic!!

A very useful web page is:

from which one can do any number of currency and precious metal cross charting. The page is pretty quick for its complexity - hats off to its wemaster.

Take a look at gold in Swiss Francs - just went to a new low. Take a look at Platinum in Yen - how do you spell CRASH - Platinum in Yen. All gold purchasers in yen in the last 22 months are under water as is just about everybody else in the G7 group of nations save Canada. Not exactly the kind of performance that encourages investment. Maybe all this selling at Dollar 300 is just old European and Japanese longs getting out - the heck with the CBs and hedge funds activity.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 06:44
Donald (Kinross news) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 06:40
rich (Gold call from $290 up Gsr mining from $1.50 up To $2.00 up.) ID#411320:
maples leafs from $285 per coin up. When and if gold goes
down more I will increase my position. Equities are the suckers

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 06:36
Donald (France wants international capital flow controls) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 06:32
Donald (Mexico wants international capital flow (read outflow) controls) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 06:27
Auric (New Currency From Mars) ID#255151:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 06:18
jims (Holding on to mining shares because.....) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
of all the reasons that make sense for shares to rally has been a suckers game. As rallies develope the price action and the improving technicals begin to confirm the fundlemental belief metals should reign surpreme, and complacency warmly establishes itself right when it is most dangerous.

Then there's the fear that this stuff could take off one day like a shot and be gone. Of course that has been echoed for 18 years, and I suggest as the world cirsumstances have seeminly become more favorable for such an occurance, the biggest thing we've seen in gold, as far as an overnight move, has been $2.

Monday we'll be down to $290-292 in a shot and WB will be able to take a tax loss on some of his silver as it dusts off $4.25 later in the week.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 06:06
jims (To John Disney) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I suppose I'm looking for and hearing the bearish signals for the stock market. A pretty oversold condition did manifest itself on Thursday of last week. I can not see the US stock market rallying very far and am out of that arena. The preasure on gold mining shares from the failure here at $300 I believe will be sufficent to contain rallies in the mining shares as you seem to feel as well. These things must be played at the extremns. A little lower and we'll be in the middle of the range around which we'll chop around at best. This whole drive for liquidity thing will preasure equities in general and I don't think the metal miners have enough going for them to resist a downward trend.

Along time ago I used to ask, what is bullish for gold. What fundlmental or news event could lead to a prolonged rally. We have had everything as an excuse for a rally but the forces that want to contain gold are overwhelming in their strenght.

We go down in gold, silver and mining shares or at best sideways to down which I feel is the best the general stock market will do - until participants in the Central Bank / hedge fund gold lease cabal start jumping ship and the $300-$315 wall can be breached.

The best reporting on this board have been those who have sold the rallies, doubted the sustainability of these counter trend moves and been able to reposition on new lows. Holding on to mining shares because of all the reasons that make sense for shares to rally has been a suckers game. And I'll admit in part I've been one of them.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 04:58
Nick@C (Best quote of the day) ID#386245:
A gulp to ya T1

'If ears were clitoral I would be in need of a snorkel...'

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 04:45
Nick@C (Lunar Madness) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The absolute nonsense posted on this site about man not walking on the lunar surface is the product of over-active imaginations that delight in conspiratorial phobias.

Not only has man walked on the moon, but he has brought back physical evidence that has a chemical signature unlike anything found on the earth.

NASA would have had to spend a large part of its @$40 billion budget making fake moon rocks.
Here is an analysis of moon rocks along with a few references for further exploration.

o Native Iron-1 vol% in some mature regolith ( also from meteorite debris, about 0.1% of regolith )
o Nickel and Cobalt
o Platinum Group, Ge, Re, and other siderophile elements, e.g. Au
o TiO2-13 wt% from ilmenite ( some in basaltic regolith
o Oxygen and iron ( FeO-22 wt% in ilmenite-rich Basalts ) can be by-products
o Al2O3-35 wt% ( SiO2-45 wt% ) from CaAl2Si2O8 ( anorthite, the dominant mineral in lunar anorthosite )
o Silicon ( Aluminum )
o Oxygen
o Sodium

o Cr2O3-0.5-1 wt% from ( Fe,Mg ) ( Cr,Al,Ti ) 2O4 ( spinel in regolith )
o MgO-wt% from ( Mg,Fe ) 2SiO4 ( olivine )
o Note: Significant concentrations of olivine near the base of near surface basalt flows were noted and sampled at the Apollo 12 exploration site in Mare Cognitum.

Other useful elements
o P2O5-0.5 wt% in phosphate minerals in KREEP
o Na2O-1.2 wt% and K2O-3.6 wt% in KREEP
o Rare Earth Elements, Hf, and Zr concentrated in KREEP related materials

Indigenous volatiles
o Chlorine and fluorine from pyroclastics ( orange and green soils )
o Zn, Mn, Cu, Pb, and other chalcophile elements if processed in large volumes.

Lunar raw materials:

Other references:
Desai, C.S., et al, 1993, Development and Mechanical Properties of Structural Materials from Lunar Simulants, in Lewis, J., Matthews, M.S., and Guerrieri, M.L., 1993, Editors, Resources of Near-Earth Space, University of Arizona Press.

Haskin, L.A., et al, 1993, A Geochemical Assessment of Possible Lunar Ore Formation, in Lewis, J., Matthews, M.S., and Guerrieri, M.L., 1993, Editors, Resources of Near-Earth Space, University of Arizona Press.

Heiken, G., et al, 1991, Lunar Source Book, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 736p.

Lewis, J., Matthews, M.S., and Guerrieri, M.L., 1993, Editors, Resources of Near-Earth Space, University of Arizona Press.

Sullivan, et al., 1991, Using Space Resources, NASA Johnson Space Center, 27p.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 04:45
John Disney (Numbers R Us) ID#24135:
for jims ..
I calculate one dollars worth of
newmont represents one oz of gold
One dollars worth of Harmony represents
three oz.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 04:25
John Disney (The new Twenties..) ID#24135:
.. seem to be partly xeroxed...
xeroxing rather than engraving will
facilitate expansion of money supply
by the massa to his slaves.
Oh lordy lordy ..

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 04:23
tolerant1 (STUDIO_R, Namaste' and gulps to ya...oh yeah...a special puff...) ID#31868:
Me and Willie Dixon are jammin to the good music...this album...huh...

If ears were clitoral I would be in need of a snorkel...

I leave now for stop to get a pretzel at Mill Dam...

59th Street Bridge...great folks...cobble stones...yowser...

Would that the glow of your music could teach these city lights to shine...

AWE...yup...uh huh...when dumb was founded I was a willing participant...

No compass shall ever define you...

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 04:16
John Disney (bullish/bearish) ID#24135:
for jims ..
Refer to the advanced GET trading site that
was posted earlier. They forecast the sp500
to hold about where it was trading and it did.
They seem to see support there followed by
a failed fifth wave or at best a double top.
Thus Id be surprised at a stock market
collapse next week .. However Im not enthusiatic
about gold/mines at the moment .. it looks like we
might be entering a corrective wave 4. Dunno.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 03:34
Auric (New Vs Old $20 Bill) ID#255151:

Compare and contrast--

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 03:30
jims (To John Disney Re Harmony PE) ID#252391:
Earlier I posted a list of stocks and their revenues to valuaiton. Nemont has something close to a 3::1 ratio. HGMCY has ( as I estimated ) a ratio of 1.3:: 1 ( revenues of 1.3 million production X 300 devided by 75 million shares ) .

Rhody took this to mean a 1.3 pe I guess.

Concern is that a stock market dump this coming week will take everything down with it. Your ideas?

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 03:17
Rack (EJ- I have been piling them up the last two weeks) ID#411163:
They look like SH*t. The woman at the bank offered to change them for the older kind. I got $2,000 this week that were mixed, every other one old/new. I dammed near just went and bought a couple bags of silver. I don't know why as the $50 and $100 never got to me this way.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 03:13
Copyright © 1998 JIN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Heard that the PM Dr.mahathir is going to run the new currencies system around here very soon.Somethings called:Bretton woods's system...What do you think...?!
But recently,i noticed that the local markets is short of metal.The reasons should go to:
1 ) The differences of the currencies rates.
2 ) Both the reatil/wholesales are dropped badly.
3 ) Foods is more important,
4 ) Some big guy buying up...not sure...!
5 ) ?
6 ) ?

The lalina is in the corner now,probably end of this month!Let's see..blowing in the wind...
Cheers .....

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 02:32
EJ (Anyone on Kitco tonight outside the US curious about the fuss about the new $20 bill) ID#45173:
If so, I can scan and post...

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 02:16
mozel (@Kitco Slow then Kitco Fast) ID#153102:
If anybody is reading, it appears slow relates to the archiving interval.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 02:13
mozel (@SDRer @Animal Spirits) ID#153102:
Information is just a circumstance according to my way of thinking.

BTW, your post on the Euro Derivatives Protocol was colossal in portent. And has even WSJ taken note of this situation ?

@Animal Spirits always play a part in human affairs. But, today, in the financial markets, I think they are the tail and not the dog. The dog is a convergence of the consequences of unbridled usury, seventy years of accummulated governmental liability, and legal crime, nationally and internationally.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 02:08
John Disney (Oboy goin to the opry TODAY) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
For Panda ..
By the way that's Ceausescu I think and it was
Romania not Albania. Happily, he was killed by firing
squad in 1989 or so after the student revolts. He was
a horror story. To Robert Mugabe the slimeball of Zimbabwe
he is a hero.

for Silverbaron ..
curious .. why do you go for puts on XAU rather than
Homestake .. Is it liquidity or what .. you must have
a reason.. On the surface .. HM is really vulnerable.

for Rhody ..
How in the world do you calculate a p/e of 1.3 for
Harmony .. I wish it was ..

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 02:08
tolerant1 (Namaste') ID#31868:
a privilege.............................

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 02:01
mozel (@T1 Puffs and Gulps all around. (Absolutely) And thanks for the kindnesses.) ID#153102:

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 01:58
EJ (Hedge funds have to brace for huge redemptions, come December 31) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
October 12, 1998 Barron's Online

A Lousy New Year

Hedge funds have to brace for huge redemptions, come December 31

By Jaye Scholl and Andrew Bary

The U.S. hedge-fund industry may be about to face one of the most serious challenges in its
nearly 50 years of existence. The industry's current problem is highlighted by the disaster that
befell Long-Term Capital Management, the Greenwich, Connecticut, hedge fund that had to be
rescued by 14 financial institutions last month. But beyond that, the hedge-fund industry's heavy
losses on Russian bonds in August, combined with losses suffered on last week's swings in the
currency markets, have left hedge-fund investors deeply disappointed. That disappointment is
likely to lead to substantial withdrawals late this year, when most investors will get their first
opportunity to withdraw money from U.S. hedge funds.

( snip )

Topping last week's hedge-fund news was word of losses at Julian Robertson's Tiger
Management, with its $20 billion under management. Robertson lost about 9% on Wednesday
alone, largely because the value of the Japanese yen, which he was short, soared against the U.S.
dollar. Despite losing about 10% in September, Robertson had been one of the few winners among
so-called macro hedge-fund managers, meaning the folks who make big bets on the direction of
markets and currencies. If his losses last week are contained to 9%, he would still be in positive
territory for the year, up almost 10%, before fees.

( snip )

Some hedge-fund managers complained last week of what they describe as a reign of terror by
Wall Street lenders that are placing increasingly high margin requirements on the hedge funds'
bond-trading positions. This is forcing the liquidations of some positions because the hedge funds
can't meet the raised margin calls. The view among some hedge funds is that major banks and
brokers are raising margins so high that they are forcing liquidations at distress prices. If so, the
banks and brokers could then sell the securities at a profit to other institutional customers. This was
what David Askin alleged four years ago when his hedge fund blew up.

As an example of the tightened rules, hedge-fund managers point out that floating-rate securities
issued by federal agencies, which involve little risk, now require 5% margin in some cases, up
from 0.5% prior to the crisis at Long-Term Capital. A 5% margin sounds minimal compared to the
50% margin required for stocks, but it is coming as a shock to the leveraged hedge funds playing
the bond market.

Among the rumored casualties of the hedge-fund industry meltdown is Eagle Capital Management
of Bloomington, Minnesota. Run by veteran trader Paul Upcraft, its portfolio of hedged
covertible-bond positions was said to have cratered after a major Wall Street brokerage house
forced the issue by yanking its credit line. The fund is believed to have assets under management
of around $300 million, levered up to a multiple of five to 10 times that amount. A call to the firm
went unreturned. Subsequent calls to Eagle's main number elicited only a recording saying that no
one was available to take any calls.
It's a big article. Lemme know if ya wanna see the whole thang.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 01:58
tolerant1 (aurator, Namaste' children hold their palms up and wish you well...their depth is) ID#31868:
reversed...the well is somewhat different from this perspective...I have no idea what I was to matter...

out to the lawn...strum each and every blade of grass...

From the children...for you...a symphony...

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 01:56
mozel (@aurator) ID#153102:
Hurray for Graham ! ( Also admire his family's crackers. ) Allodial title ro all rights of land. The land title of freemen in a Constitutional Republic.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 01:45
aurator (The gold belongs to ;;;;;) ID#25490:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

your comments some day ago, concerning mineral rights, you might find this news interesting. The current position is that Ag Au and the grant of mineral rights are always retained by The Crown. This is a most interesting devolution of rights.

The Government relinquished its control over pounamu ( greenstone ) in its settlement with the South Island's Ngai Tahu tribe, which passed into law last week. Mr Graham said it was unclear what justification there was for retaining rights over minerals such as gold and silver.

There may be a good reason for it, he said. Blowed if I know what it is. If the Government can't justify doing it, then it should give the damn things back.

This should apply not just to Maori claimants but to anybody who happens to own the land, just as a matter of principles of good government.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 01:42
EJ (The stock slump probably is forecasting a recession, but...) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Another pay site posting. Shhhhh!

Barron's Online October 12, 1998
Foggy Crystal Ball

The stock slump probably is forecasting a recession, but...

By Gene Epstein

If the recent market selloff is any guide, then there is a better than even chance that the U.S.
economy will soon be in recession. In fact, it's even possible that a recession has begun. Then
again, maybe the market has it wrong, which wouldn't be the first time. Nobel laureate economist
Paul Samuelson supposedly quipped that the stock market has anticipated eight of the past four
recessions, and his remark has been widely interpreted to mean that when it comes to such
important work, the market isn't worth heeding. Maybe try an economist instead, whose track
record is probably zero out of the past four.

But even Samuelson's estimate translates into 50-50 foresight, and the S&P 500 always has been
included in the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, which must say something about the
economics profession's respect for the market's forecasting ability. So maybe the ominous chart
on this page is worth a look.

What it's telling us is that, based on the selloff that began after the July 17 closing high on the S&P
of 1186.75, the odds of recession might currently be four chances out of seven. The word might
must be used here because strictly speaking, based on closing prices, we haven't yet seen a bear

So far, the S&P has fallen 19.3% from high to low, and to qualify as a full-blown bear, the
slippage must run at least 20%. Still, we're close enough to the precipice to start worrying: In four
of the past seven cases of a better-than-20% drop, a recession occurred.

However, every bear market is unlike every other, and in this case, our economic impact statement
should include both good news and bad. The good news is that a bigger-than-usual piece of this
decline is probably a much-needed correction from valuations that were unrealistically high. So
maybe the impact on the real economy will be muted. The bad news is that the decline is dealing a
heavy blow to the lives and fortunes of heavily invested U.S. consumers -- what economists call a
negative wealth effect. So maybe the impact on the real economy will be disastrous.

Another piece of good news is that as recently as 11 years ago, a bear market struck and no
recession occurred.

The accompanying chart tracks the daily close on the S&P from May 29, 1952, to the present. For
those unfamiliar with the kind of graph we're using, it's what is called a logarithmic chart,
designed to highlight percentage moves instead of absolute points.

Since 1950, bear markets in stocks have occurred seven times, but
recessions have followed in only four of these instances, usually within
a year or two. With a little luck, the economy may weather the market's
latest selloff. The chart above represents a log-scale of the S&P 500,
with the shaded areas marking recessions and the arrows showing
periods since 1952 in which the market fell at least 20% from high to

The arrows highlight the seven prior bear markets that have occurred since 1952. Notice that, in
each case, a dot is inserted to mark the point at which the drop passed the defining threshold of

For those old enough to remember, the worst bear of the past half-century struck on January 11,
1973, passed the 20% mark on November 27 of that year, and hit bottom on December 9 of 1974.
It produced a stomach-churning fall from high to low of 45.44%.

Maybe, not surprisingly, that particular market crash was accompanied by the severe 1973-75
recession. The grey areas mark all eight sharp economic downturns that occurred since 1952, and
by following the story from the beginning to the present, we can squeeze out all the wisdom this
chart contains.

Before each of these eight recessions, the stock market has either declined or gone into a trading
range. It never actually rose, unless we credit the slight uptrends going into the 1953-54 recession
and prior to the short-lived recession of January-July 1980.

The chart also reveals that the market always declines after a recession has actually begun, a fact
that could prove to be useful, since sometimes even the experts are blind to what's really going on.

Back in August 1974, then-Fed Chairman Arthur Burns was publicly denying that an economic
downturn was under way, even though the history books say one had started in November of the
preceding year.

And the current Fed chief, the omniscient Alan Greenspan, was in similar denial as of September
1990, a good two months after the 1990-91 recession had begun. The stock market declines that
were quite evident in both instances might have provided a useful corrective to such empty
assurances. Given this history, the current selloff on Wall Street is at least alerting us to the
possibility of trouble.

But still, it's always helpful to know exactly how far a decline has to go before it warrants a cry of
all hands on deck; man the lifeboats. And here the lessons of the past get a bit fuzzy.

Two of the four bear markets that did accompany recessions were practically over by the time a
20% drop had occurred. The 1981-82 recession was the very worst since the Great Depression,
and yet the bear market that accompanied it hadn't officially formed until June 1982, just six
months before the economy bottomed out. In fact, only the bear of 1973-74 was truly on the
money, forming itself by November '73 -- the very month the recession began, even though the
event didn't enlighten Fed Chairman Burns.

Today, however, given the near-bear experience of a 19.3% decline, we do have fair warning. Of
the three out of seven bear markets that proved to be false signals, two struck in the 1960s.

The first, from December 1961 to June '62, sent a colossally wrong signal, since it came at the
beginning of the longest peacetime expansion of this century. The second, from January to October
1966, at least had the virtue of occurring in the midst of an expansion that was markedly slowing.

The third false signal was of more recent vintage, accompanied by the worst one-day crash since
1929 -- the Black Monday of October 19, 1987, when the market fell more than 20%. From the
August 20 high to the October 26 low, the full decline ran 32%, and yet the economy continued to
grow until well into 1990.

But there still is some logic to the idea that a bear market helps anticipate a recession.

Why? The respectful theory is that the market somehow reflects the rich reservoir of knowledge
that comes from all those securities analysts scrutinizing the earnings prospects of all those
companies. But the trouble is that, during this downtrend at least, analysts' forecasts seem to
follow the market rather than lead it. Right now, according to the tracking firm First Call, the
bottom-up forecast on the S&P for the third quarter is running negative 3.3% versus a year ago,
which is probably in the ballpark. But for the current quarter, the analysts are posting a positive
8.1% -- and for the first quarter of 1999, 13.4%. First Call's research director, Charles Hill,
confidently predicts that, as reporting periods draw near, reality will set in, and these percentages
will start to decline.

The alternative hypothesis for the merits of the market as leading indicator is more convincing.

First, there's the negative wealth effect, as noted above. Never have so many Americans had so
much money in stocks, and if the market continues to slump, consumption will suffer. Second, a
market decline hurts consumer confidence, which also weighs on consumption. Much of the recent
decline in confidence is probably market-related.

The main source of hope for staving off recession is that Greenspan has ample cushion to ease
interest rates and seems determined to do so even before he sees the whites of a recession's eyes.
Let's hope he shoots straight -- and that this time around, the stock market's implicit forecast
proves to be as wrong as it sometimes has been in times past.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 01:38
tolerant1 (mozel, Namaste' 7 quarts be in me...not proud...I have been examining your vent of ) ID#31868: very much you re-kindle thoughts of the most fabulous mind was such that I ever encountered...NewBerry...South Carolina...

John Summers...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

You not be him...proper cloth betwen the two of you and my Ears would Dwarf my body for the listening...

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 01:33
mozel (@Rule of Law vs. Rule of Gold) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If a person believes that there is a Higher Law to which all men are subject, then that person believes in the Rule of Law. Sub Deo et Lege. Under God and His Law of Nature and of Scripture. If a person believes that the law is made by men, then that person does not believe in the Rule of Law. Then, anything goes. Whatever is decreed by the Leader or the Legislature or jointly is legal and whatever is legal is the law.

The foundations of British and American common-law Law recognize a Higher Law. But, everything added onto those foundations in the twentieth century does not. Moreover, the Law of Nations or International Law never has recognized any law but paramount power and force.

When the banking system failed in the Great Depression, the government in America, in bankruptcy, put itself on a new footing of governing by necessity of emergency. And it licensed Banks to issue emergency scrip backed only by the government's power to borrow, Federal Reserve Notes, for the people to use. A license is always issued to permit the holder to do something which without the license would be unlawful. In other words, it would be unlawful for a Bank to issue Notes on thin air, but the Bank can do so with a license. Then, the government declared these thin air Notes of nothing but credit were money. This was a violation of the Higher Law which says that substance must be exchanged for substance.

In international law or the Law of Nations, one nation may demand tribute of another. This is clearly not an exchange of substance for substance. So, the use of gold in international transactions was purely by agreement among sovereign powers, by treaty. It was never in recognition of a Higher Law. So, the agreement of Bretton Woods, which stated that current account deficits would be paid in gold, was just an agreement among participating nations. But, agreements between nations and even treaties may be broken. The United States broke the Bretton Woods agreement by continually reducing the amount of gold it would settle for every dollar of deficit. Finally, it cancelled the agreement altogether. The replacement agreement was the International Monetary Fund.

The domestic US consequences of violating the Higher Law that substance must be exchanged for substance have been uniformly destructive. It led to others, so many others that the Communist Manifesto has effectively been legislated here. An ideology which recognizes no Higher Law is now the statuatory law of the land by Act of Congress. The lawyers are taught that the law is man made and, basically, anything goes.

The international consequences parallel the domestic. If you doubt that anything goes at the UN, just read the Resolutions. The creation of a global risk insurance fund and hedge fund regulation will not change anything. It will no more prevent legal fraud and legal theft and robbery internationally than the FDIC and domestic regulation prevented the Savings and Loan and Commercial Bank frauds and thefts of the 1980's. Nor is there any power to enforce global regulation even if it is adopted.

Nations will return to gold for settlement of accounts, not in recognition of a Higher Law commanding it, but because it works, provides more security for more sovereigns than it disadvantages, and costs sovereigns less than the alternatives. That it may involve gold plus paper is kind of beside the main point.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 00:04
rich (tallyho! and a way we go) ID#411320:
watch gold go monday afternoon...and stocks drop like a rock.

Date: Sun Oct 11 1998 00:02
Chicken man (Cyclist @ Let's place out bets and go for the ride!!) ID#341297:
We are thinking alike!! IHMO.. I don't think we will see this kind of opportunity again in our life times. I couldn't stop buying XAU puts
Thursday...ended up with 41 of those pups
Gollum's Rattlesnake market could be a Humdinger

Just a thuoght...Chicken man...

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