Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 20:51
Donald (Bank of England warns of massive financial turmoil on Euro launch) ID#26793:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 20:37
Delphi (Short term) ID#258142:
POG goes down. Sorry

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 20:04
EJ (People are saying the current world crisis is worse than World War II or 1929 ) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A Champagne Evening Awash in Gloom - October 9, 1998 New York Times


WASHINGTON -- To the casual observer, the meeting of international
finance ministers and central bankers that ended here Thursday had all the
elements of a glittery affair of the type often portrayed in movies: a mix of
big money and bright thoughts as the world's rich and powerful gather in one spot.

But beneath the gloss was gloom. With a world financial crisis hanging over the
meeting, international bankers and business executives had to forsake their traditional
bonhomie. Instead, in the hallways, away from official seminars and in quiet voices,
international bankers here were visibly troubled by a wave of financial woes washing
from one country to the next.

I woke up this morning an optimistic man, said David Komansky, chairman of
Merrill Lynch & Co., who came here earlier in the week for a day of meetings. By the
end of the day, I wanted to jump out the window.

Komansky, of course, did no such thing. But his views aptly summed up the mood.
What I've seen is fear and people frightened, he said. It's probably gone to a great
extreme. But people are concerned and frightened and that fear kind of feeds on itself.

Frequent visitors to the gathering, sponsored by the International Monetary Fund and
the World Bank, said they have never seen an atmosphere so downbeat, even though
the usually lavish parties and lengthy policy debates continued unabated.

There's a real sense of pain, said Sharif Ghalib, director of sovereign rating for the
London office of Standard & Poor's, a rating agency. All the major financial players
are criticized for not anticipating the problems and for having no mechanisms to deal
with it. I don't recall a meeting as gloomy as this one.

The gloom comes out in everything from gallows humor to grim words in official
speeches to the 10,000 attendees here. The shoeshine man at the hotel where the
conference is held has seen fewer Guccis and more wingtips and worn heels,
according to an IMF newsletter circulated at the gathering. The same newsletter shows
funny pictures of conferees with one captioned: Do you think this guy knows his
portfolio is worthless after yesterday?

Official speeches were a cascade of bad news: Hans Tietmeyer, head of Germany's
powerful central bank, warned there is certainly no panacea for overcoming the
present problems. He was followed by Gordon Brown, chancellor of the Exchequer
in England, who said market turmoil is going to have an effect on world growth and
in Britain. Kiichi Miyazawa, finance minister of Japan, talked of a risk of a serious
deflationary spiral of the entire world economy.

Of course, words like those haunt bankers from emerging markets who came also to
do business -- the raising of money for their countries from Wall Street and European
financiers. Many foreign bankers said they are frustrated because their countries, often
in relatively good financial shape, are now being shunned by U.S. bankers and
investors who once threw money at them.

I am concerned, said Miguel Martins, a senior manager at the International Bank of
Mozambique. He said that despite solid economic indicators, Mozambique is proving
to be a hard sell.

Clearly, you can have a domino effect, Martins said. You have problems in the Far
East, then Russia and Latin America. Southern Africa is showing good indicators, like
Asia when it started to boom. Yet we are being rated as though we are in second grade.
That is very frustrating.

There were actually two parallel gatherings going on. One hotel had all the IMF and
World Bank official meetings, with policy presentations that drone on. At another hotel
-- in what some call the Shadow IMF -- emerging market bankers and Wall Streeters
met to cut deals.

It was at the Shadow IMF where Merrill Lynch; J.P. Morgan; Donaldson, Lufkin &
Jenrette; Lehman Brothers; Citibank; and Credit Suisse First Boston have set up shop
in a high-class version of a Middle Eastern bazaar. J.P. Morgan, for instance, had
three days of meetings where its salespeople and economists met with international
bankers and government officials from Colombia, the Czech Republic, Brazil and 14
other countries. Merrill did, too. ING Barings feted Japanese bankers and
co-sponsored the 1998 Emerging Markets CEO of the Year award.

Despite this interest, international bankers said they were being grilled like never before
and feared that a credit crunch may develop, cutting off much-needed capital to help
their economies grow.

Emerging markets are scared of a credit crunch, said Hakan Ates, chief executive of
DenizBank, a Turkish bank. Ates brought a multicolor presentation that he had
prepared for New York financiers, showing Turkey's strong economic-growth rates
and solid industrial output. Our message is 'Please don't mistreat us because of
Russia,' Ates said. Due to the global crisis, they are asking all kinds of questions
about Turkey as well.

Despite the misery and increased cries for help for poor countries, those making the
cries and feeling the misery participated in a social ritual that makes the IMF and World
Bank gatherings famous: lavish and, seemingly, nonstop partying.

A limousine gridlock enveloped the city as bankers rushed from one fancy gathering to
another. The hottest ticket in town was to the Republic Bank reception at The National
Gallery, featuring the van Gogh show.

Saudi bankers took over the National Air and Space Museum, the Kuwaitis the Four
Seasons hotel, J.P. Morgan showed off bankers and Impressionist paintings at the
Phillips Collection and the Turkish Bankers Association held a sumptuous feast of
Turkish culinary specialties, in amounts that looked like they could feed the entire

Merrill Lynch's gathering was at a Georgetown estate once owned by descendants of
Martha Washington's family. To highlight the history, attendants in colonial garb
played musical instruments and announced the guests as they made their way up a
cobblestone path to an enormous tent that covered what looked to be a
wedding-in-progress. At one bar, bankers drank whisky and talked about the crisis at
Long Term Capital, the Greenwich, Conn., hedge fund, at another, the concerns were
over Croatia.

In such a beautiful setting, with liquor flowing and food in abundance, it was hard to
be entirely pessimistic.

People are saying the current world crisis is worse than World War II or 1929, said a
banker from Abbey National, a British bank, who asked not to be named . But you've
got a lot of people looking at the problem, so surely, something will be done.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 20:04
Crystal Ball (@ Envy) ID#287367:
I've seen this before too. Check out how short term oversold mines are- Homestake down 12% in one day!! MONSTER gold rally next week.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 20:01
Donald (Nigerian forces invade Sierra Leone gold mining town.) ID#26793:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:55
Tortfeasor (Talking heads) ID#37463:
Copyright © 1998 Tortfeasor/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I was just listening to the news. There was a bit of fanfare about the great day in the paper markets. However, they were quick to point out that most of the comptrollers are paring back operation, letting people go, things that do not demonstrate faith in a robust economy. The governmentment is going to have to come in an drop interest rates, bring back the investment tax credit, the write off which we used to have on passive investment and in general bring us a good dose of inflation to heal the sick patient. I think this flight up today in paper is just an aberation which may last a couple of days. Emotion may take it up one day but it won't keep it there. Emotion may tank gold today but its glistening aura will rise because after all gold is gold and gold is king..

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:49
Gollum (LTCM denial) ID#43349:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:49
Donald (Five major European banks face downgrade over involvement in bottomless derivative pit) ID#26793:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:48
aurator () ID#25490:
Grammar? Otahuhu?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:46
Envy (@Chicken man, MM) ID#219363:
Deja vu, I know I've seen this pattern somewhere before, complete with today's equity rally.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:45
moa (Auric...blues) ID#269128:
gold 'n blues old school rugby colours.

John Lee Hooker strummed pretty good and harp too.

Sonny Terry and Brownie McGee ..awesome combo

T-Bone Walker struts his tuff.


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:40
Donald (Cash still flowing out of Brazil bigtime) ID#26793:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:35
Gollum (Donald's 19:28) ID#43349:
Good find.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:34
(back) ID#20769:
Copyright © 1998 /Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Long time no see. Was out of the country an disconnected from financial markets for a little over a year and missed out on all the spectacular developments: Gyrations in almost all precious metals prices and
dreadful wipeout and subsequent partial recovery in XAU.
The deflation scenario talked about here about a year ago is taking more concrete shape. Interesting in this regard the downard move in platinum and the failure of palladium to follows suit. Seem to remember that Tiger fund went long palladium in a big way some time ago and now is in trouble ( for other reasons ) . It seems that palladium is a short here. If a full blown recession develops we should see palladium below 100 USD again.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:34
Chicken man (MM @ We both have the same plan!!!) ID#341297:
I love it. Picked up just about enough to buy one of those 100 oz. bars
courtesy of the bond boys. Caught the Orient Express with EB earlier in the week they gave me a 100 oncer when I stepped off. ( if I had the nerve
to ride the whole day I could have had a Jaguar to boot! )
IHMO now is the time to play the liquidity squeeze on the short those derivatives

Chicken man

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:34
Donald (Moodys ready to cut credit ratings of 5 Chinese financial trusts after major failure.) ID#26793:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:32
RB (LSteve ..NEM ) ID#408170:
I think your right a classic buy.

A great day trade.

Again I'm with you on your ( 14:30 )

All this noise in the market place did not change

my mind one bit. This is a fight for the soles ( & wallets ) of men.

No great trade is ever easy, tears your mind up too.

Have Gold in all forms Phy - Fut - Stocks. Bought a little

at $400, a lot at $310, added at $288.

No one can tell me it isn't valuable. I make jewelry for a living.

I've seen the look in women's and ( men's ) eyes when they take

it in their hands and feel it's power. It's real and it's desirable.

Millions have killed or been killed for it.

( This trade is not just any trade!!!! )

This ones for the Gipper


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:31
Gollum (Black gold) ID#43349:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:28
Sojourn (Homestake mining providing a nice clear picture) ID#28939:

A short and quick ( what isn't these days ) fourth wave decline for HM should coincide with the 2nd wave rally in the US markets. Homestake did not break to new lows in August when the XAU, ABX, TSE golds, and others did.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:28
Donald (Hedge funds dumped treasury bonds en masse this week.) ID#26793:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:23
Auric (STUDIO.R--Blues) ID#255151:
Having got snookered by buying a collection of Marcelle Marceau CDs, I decided to try some Blues. Picked up The Best of Bobby Bland and The Best of Albert Collins. Is this a good place to start? Any other recommendations? Also, got a CD called Before the Blues, a collection of the roots of the Blues music from the late 1800's.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:21
Gollum (@EJ) ID#43349:
Every jump from one spot to the next wears down the flight money so over the course of time the volatility dies out.

Until that happens there are lot's of overbought or oversold opportunities indeed.

Panic is like that.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:21
Donald (Newmont news) ID#26793:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:18
2BR02B? (interviews) ID#266105:

Interview Nick Goodwin - 09 October, 1998

AH: Nick Goodwin joins us now, our gold guru. Nick is it time to start lightening perhaps on your gold holdings, after gold's inability to break through $300 an ounce?

NICK GOODWIN: Yes Alec, what concerned me this week is gold's battling to get to $300. It's currently sitting at 297. Also the rand was much stronger. Last Friday the rand was R6.10 to the dollar, it's now at R5.78. That also affects gold shares. They just outrun themselves a little bit for the moment. I think we are looking at a potential 10 to 15% setback which could bring the index down from 1260 to about 1050 where I think that will be a buy area again. For people who don't really want to sell out now, they don't have to, but they must just live
with bit of a setback.

AH: How long might it last, Nick?

NICK GOODWIN: Well you always ask me this, and I always tell you I can't time it. It's got to do with cycling. I think it will be maybe three or four weeks, but I think when the next price is low enough and I get another short-term buy, then I will indicate to you at that level.

AH: So it's likely that we are going to see a little bit of a sell-off but the longer term trend?

NICK GOODWIN: Still up, so for people who would like to live through this little bit of storm that we are going through now, they must just understand what that means.

AH: That's the word from our gold guru, Nick Goodwin. Well Mike Howarth, you heard what Nick Goodwin had to say, we've seen gold shares having a terrific run for a while and he says perhaps they are in for a bit of a fall.

MIKE HOWARTH: Yes, I think until the static is out of the currency markets, which is basically what Nick is really talking about, it's perhaps the weakness in the dollar and the short covering on the yen and so on. It's probably time to head for the coast and take a break from the markets for a while, unless you are really playing.

AH: So if you are worried about the tax man, just hang in there, but expect that your gold shares might actually lose value, otherwise if you are a trader, trade through it?

MIKE HOWARTH: Yes, traders will probably have great fun over the next few weeks, because the volatility certainly is going to be there, but I would hate the average guy in the street to get caught in the static and what
we are going to have over the next weeks is basically going to be urrency-led static.

AH: That's the word from our man on a Friday, Mike Howarth of Absa Securities.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:16
MM (Alchemy for the new millenium) ID#350179:
My plan is to ride the ups in paper.
Sell at a profit. ( well it is a plan )
Turn the profits into metal ( ta daa )
( Repeat )

Keeping it simple.
Paper covers rock?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:13
STUDIO.R (@Haggis......all eyes on Kookynie.........) ID#119358:
aye. salud! un GulpO y un PuffO to YA!!! ( gulp )

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:12
Donald (Near collapse of LTCM Hedge Fund has caused gold investors to change strategy) ID#26793:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:10
moa ('re a goddamn jewel.) ID#269128:
...and your news is much appreciated.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:09
Copyright © 1998 HOOSIER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
jims & Gold Dancer

Well said, both of you in your 18:36 and 18:21 posts!

Goldbugs, Kitcoites, ( alias ICEMEN ) Let us together keep our moderate, termperate status/emotional keel through buying physical at bargain price levels ( which can't last forever ) and keep to our game plan, losing on some plays/market moves and successful on others in this war of PAPER VS. GOLD, not becoming bored or complacent/apathetic to the rational truth concerning real worth and value, until the powers that are or Central Banks make an irrevocable, tragic mistake in this unrealistic, imaginary game they are conducting, and we receive eventually the TOPGUN trophy for our efforts. What is the worst that can happen? We will leave our physical to our ancestors as our legacy to truth.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:07
kapex (Quick post; We are now in the 2nd wave up. Look for a .382 retracement of the ) ID#218252:
whole 277 point decline in the S&P 500. The 1030 level should contain the 2nd wave, then look out below!!! Catch you all later. By the way, sure are a lot of I told ya so's on the XAU and PM's. Us contrarian's love to see that wall of worry! Sell everything!!!

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:06
Donald (Job cut announcements are accelerating sharply.) ID#26793:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:06
moa (Most active traders for the markets, eh?) ID#269128:
1. Federal Reserve Board

2. Hong Kong Monetary Authority

3. IMF Currency Desk

4. LTCM... ( under guidance of FRB )

5. LMBA Stabilisation Fund... ( covert Brit. Schoolboy Rogerers )

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 19:00
Donald (Gold Fields news) ID#26793:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:56
Sojourn (Market similarities and animals, Gollum and others) ID#28939:

An old trader once told me there are no bulls or bears in the stock market only PIGS!!!! After a week like this I have a better understanding of the mud slingers. He also told me to think of the worst thing that the market could do at any given moment and you will probably be close to the truth.

In any event has anyone noticed the similarity between the stock pattern of the US market starting on July 18, 1990 into October of that year and the present pattern? Very striking in nature. I'll let you draw your conclusions for the next three months.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:55
moa (Gold is a scam market, no?...let's all email these guys....) ID#269128:
Copyright © 1998 moa/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
What a farce why isn't SEC investigating CB activities in gold market?
Manipulation?...nah..never...just control...hahahahahha!

Friday October 9, 6:22 pm Eastern Time

New e-mail address to report Net securities scams

WASHINGTON, Oct 9 ( Reuters ) - Investors can report suspected financial
scams on the Internet to a new e-mail address created by the North American
Securities Administrators Association, the state securities group said on Friday. will act as a neighborhood watch program where
investors ``look out for themselves and their neighbors on the Net and alert
regulators when they see something suspicious,'' Peter Hildreth, president of
NASAA and director of New Hampshire's securities regulation, said.

He said regulators needed the assistance of investors to help them root out suspected online scams, given the
size and growth of the Internet.

``Regulators can't do it alone. It's like expecting one precinct house to patrol all of New York City. It simply
can't be done,'' Hildreth said.

In recent months state securities regulators have brought actions against suspected Internet fraud, including
online casinos, pyramid schemes and supposed investments in ``soon-to-be-produced'' motion pictures.

And Internet sites, news groups, chat rooms and e-mail messages are increasingly being used to pitch cheap
stocks known as microcaps -- a major concern of regulators at various levels, NASAA said.

When sending a complaint, investors should include the state in which they live as well as information
about the suspected scam, it said.

Hildreth said that when NASAA gets the e-mail messages it will pass them on to the proper authorities,
including state regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:55
STUDIO.R (@el studio's continuing musical score for the Days of Kitco.........) ID#119358:
.........yesterday.....I hear that train a comin'......a comin' 'round da' bend.......

........and today......The Colonel Bogey March ( the theme from The Bridge over the River Kwai ) ...daaa da...da da da daaaaaaa da da daaaa..da ...da.daa...daa..daa.daa..daa.
( sound of GoldTrain falling off bridge into river )
( sound of one pistol shot )
( plop )
( sigh ) ( gulp ) ( puff ) ( ( puff ) )
( sniffle ) damn sad movie.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:55
Donald (Legislation expected this weekend will impair ability to obtain Saudi oil.) ID#26793:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:55
Oak (cheer up, there is a lot of good news, just a price correction.) ID#240241:
Copyright © 1998 Oak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mitsubishi Materials Corp will open The Gold Shop on the first floor
of its headquarters in Tokyo.
*****It hopes to cash in on increased interest in gold as a way to protect individual assets.*****
The Otemachi shop will sell gold coins & men's jewelry in addition to gold bullion. Customers will also be able to open gold deposit accounts. They forcast 300 kilograms of gold sales in fiscal 1999.

Aurizon Mines Ltd. Aurizon reports record gold production of 41,118 ounces for the nine months ended September 30, 1998, exceeding its annual gold production record of 39,668 ounces set in 1997.
October 7, 1998

Oct. 7, 1998--Dayton Mining Corporation is pleased to announce that its
Andacollo Gold Mine located in central Chile produced a record 25,076
ounces of gold, at a cash operating cost of US$226 per ounce, for the
quarter ending Sept. 30, 1998.

Royal Oak Mines Inc. Royal Oak Mines Inc. announced today that it's new
Kemess South gold-copper mine in north central British Columbia has
reached commercial production after meeting design criteria at the open pit mine and concentrator ...
October 8, 1998

There is another piece of news a couple of days old, but just saw it.
I'll wait until I've bought some before I mention it. *grin*

Thank goodness I had some cash today, had put a couple of low bids in
on TVX & HGMCY, got them both just above their bottoms for the day.
Took a hit on GSR that pretty much erased the 25% from the other day.
But still in the money ( barely ) . Hopefully positioned ok now. Gonna
sit back & let it ride, Win or lose, should be a helluva ride!
Go GSR,HGMCY,TVX & my little rug rat CCH ( no one loves you! )

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:54
LGB (...How did market climb?....) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Hmmmm.... moved the last 1/3 of my cash assets into Loral stock yesterday and waatched it make the biggest one day percentage move up since the IPO today ( +14% ) ... not that I'm crowing...I'm still in a loss position for the year with Loral... and now have every last egg of 401 cash invested in it, despite JTF's warnings to the contrary.

Now I searched diligently through the past 2 days posts and can't find the reason for today's broad rally. You know... I mean it could ONLY have been caused by Puetz doing a crash update.... but I couldn't find one! Has he been posting on another forum somewhere maybe? And for you skeptics, let me just mention that anyone who doesn't believe Puetz has this power over the market..probably also believes men have walked on the Moon!

Cage Rattler.... excellent call yesterday...the market did precisely as you predicted. I'm hoping we'll see more of the same on Monday and Tuesday so I can move some cash back out of Loral.

Yes...Loral is off topic...but I have to find consoloation somewhere since Harmony, SSC, and Gold, silver, & Platinum are all down today. ( And my holdings in those area are real as opposed to the paper holdings in a 401K that can't be touched for 20 years more anyway! )

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:53
EJ (@aurator and Gollum) ID#229207:
aurator - no offense taken! This woolgatherer has not been royally rogered yet. But if some day I find myself standing pink and shivering in the mist, with gold @ $200, and my tupping crayon askew, I shall recall your words. Of course, I say that if gold goes to $200 that's because oil has gone to $6 and a hamburger will go for $1. But then I would say that :- )

Gollum, thx for the rattlesnake explanation. There are ops for the quick-footed trader. We must all hope that the snake tires out, tho, and reaches equilibrium. Otherwise this might end badly.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:40
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
XAU/Spot Ratio = .259. The 233 day moving average is .247 and we have been above it for 12 consecutive trading days. We were below the 233 for the previous 91 trading days.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:40
MM (Aurator) ID#350179:
Thank you, kind sir. ( Yet another cocktail party discussion topic. )
Woolgathering, yup same meaning here.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:40
moa (Gold Dancer...good thought let's shoot AG ) ID#269128:
turncoat goldbug, virtual economist....I've got RR in my crosshairs too.

HAHA...that should get the price of gold moving!

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:39
JimX67 (@Gollum....Rattlesnake) ID#239365:
I like your 18:04. Everything on the markets is panic at
present time : selling panic, buying panic, all over again.
We have to bet on excesses, short term shifts and gaps :
10% in one day, which is frequent, should be taken...
The only problem is to keep with tempo...

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:37
Tortfeasor (Aurator) ID#37463:
Aurator thou art indeed profound. Your salient wit and wisdom has resulted in the condensation of moisure in this attorney's eyes. Tease us more with your profundity and perhaps wool get the price of gold off its knees. Thanks for sheering that bit with us.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:36
jims (Are we the greater fool?) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Looks like precious metal and mine holders are in for another period of decline as the Central Bank / Hedge Fund Gold Leasor Cabal has won yet another round. The feeling here is a capitulation that gold won't see prices above $300 until.....well, next year. We have, therefore, an opportunity to pick up more bargins during the tax loss selling season. It is difficult to look at the fundlementals and want to sell and put the proceeds to work in the stock market. But that is what market action has consistantly told us is where the reward is. At some point this mentality will be broken. It looked like a good chance this week with all events moving in our favor - but alas, not to be.

It does seem to me that rate cuts around the world and probably soon again in the US ( the pushing of the string ) ultimately lay a strong foundation for gold and precious metals. Will we see a reflationary coordinated effort to maintain the economies of the world at a politically acceptable level of prosperity. Seems we will. Lowering interst rates is the only course of action the governments and bankers have at their disposal. The action in the bonds tells me that the long term effect of coordinated rate reductions will be bullish for gold - the reaction will, it appears, be delayed and further opportunity to commit at lower prices abundant.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:34
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Dow/Gold Ratio = 26.66. The 233 day moving average is 28.65 and we have been below it for 29 consecutive trading days. The D/G Ratio was above the 233 for the previous 933 trading days.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:23
aurator (I've been woolgathering, how 'bout you?) ID#25490:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Ah, so the term woolgathering is not in common use in your, ahhem, neck of the woods?

It means Idle or absent-minded indulgence in fantasy, daydreaming.

I do not mean to offend. It's what we goldbugs are good at, the wish for return to the sanity of real money, no? Hence the goldbugs inherent propensity for being fleeced, shorn and, ahhem, right royally rogered.

A tupping crayon is strapped to the underside of a ram, so the cocky* can tell which ewe has been right royally rogered.

*cocky ( NZ & Aus. sl. ) farmer,

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:21
Gold Dancer (Japan-making them spend) ID#377196:
Copyright © 1998 Gold Dancer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Like all people the Japanese are subject to emotion. Right now
that emotion is to hold on to as a way of survival. This always
happens when you think you can get more by waiting. It is another
way of expressing greed.

With paper money, the way to get people to get rid of the stuff is
to devalue, thru inflation, that which they have saved. This can
be done in two ways. Print more YEN or create shortages in real goods, which should create higher prices which should get the economy going
again. Oil would be a good place to start. That would drive up the price
of everything.

Y2K may create shortages.

They love to speculate also. Inflation causes speculation in
markets and rising markets create more speculation. We need to somehow
convince them that GOLD is the only way they can survive and they need
to buy as much as they can now!!!!!!!!!!

Total war would be another way but that would destroy too much of
what we would like to buy with our gold profits. So that is out.

So it looks like economic recovery, peace and happiness is what will
get people to spend on consumer goods. That and good wages.

I'm all for the above. I think the Central bankers are too now that
they have f***** up the world enough for ten lifetimes.

Come to think of it, I think if we fired Greenspan that might get
things going. Let's get a pro growth in the real economy type in there.
Alan is just a virtual economist anyway.

Go GOLD, sometime. Looks sideways for awhile to me.

Thanks, GD

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:12
aurator (Where's Silas Marnar when you need him?) ID#25490:

We have had little news ( gnus? ) from the LBMA of late, setting aside for a moment the fact that we were in complete darkness about this instituition until a couple of years ago, I am wondering, not about the paper trading volume as much as the physical gold underlying the trade in vaults under the Bank of England.

Anyone any recent info on the LBMA

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:11
Gollum (So how does one play a rattlesnake market?) ID#43349:
In a bull market you pick something that looks good and go long. In a bear market you pick something that looks bad and go short.

In a rattlesnake you forget how it looks. Whatever is down, buy some and wait for either the flight money to come your way or some short fund to get in trouble and have to unwind. Whatever is up, go short and wait for either the flight money to go dashing off or some long fund get in trouble and have to dump.

In a rattlesnake, positions are like street cars. If you miss one, another will be along in a little while.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:08
EJ (aurator -- Sir, whatever do ewe mean?) ID#229207:
Goldbugs, we are a herd but sheep we are not! We are as mules in that we are stubborn. We are as wolves in that we are fierce and ready for a fight. We are as frogs in that we sit in the pan as it heats until we die. We are as monkeys, always chattering. But we are not sheep! No one shaves the wool off our backs without hearing a elongated, quasi-religious diatribe. Abbey's passive Sheeple don't say a word! And that's the real difference. Words! If words were dollars we'd all be richer than if gold were $30,000/oz.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 18:04
Gollum (Rattlesnake market and today) ID#43349:
Everyone more or less understands bull markets and bear markets, but we haven't seen any really good rattlesnake markets for mant decades now.

Bear markets are generated by the excesses built up in the boom bust cycle unwinding. The inital stages of bull markets are popped off by short covering of bear market positions.

A rattlesnake market occurs when great leveraged derivative positions get built up and then have to unwind due to adverse market positions.

Stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities can move in wildly contradictory diretions as one position or another unwinds. Fundamentals mean nothing, charts mean little, and basic relationships can vanish.

Flight money runs from one safe haven to another in panicked bewilderment.

Today we saw precious metals declining even as the dollar fell.

Basically what happend is that today's save haven was short term bonds. Money that had flown to long term treasuries was afraid to stay there in the face of the falling dollar and it's inflationary implications. Money that had flown to precious metals was afraid to stay there because of the rise in interest rates ( and it's deflationary implications ) as long term bonds fell.

So even though foreign demand for metals will uncrease tremendously due to the falling dollar, metals fell as large funds sold out to rush to the safety of short term notes and bonds.

Panic selling.

Once they notice how rapidly COMEX stocks are dropping, and commodity prices rising as more virtual wealth is created among foreign buyers they will all come rushing back.


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 17:49
Delphi (In Amsterdam) ID#258142:
call/put ratio:
Gold 1.66
AEX ( main bourse index ) : 0.74

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 17:17
Gollum (Meanwhile India (big users of gold and silver) are gaining virtual wealth) ID#43349:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 17:12
Silverbaron (SDRer) ID#290456:

No problemo......

Just tell them that their money will expire on Dec 31, 1998 ( ;^ ) )

Foolproofo....Slamdunko....Guaranteedo to work.

Of course, I expect a 1% commission from all sales for this suggestion.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 17:12
Greenstone Gold (moa (Greenstone...point taken)..........) ID#428218:

ALWAYS go to the convent !!

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 17:11
Obsidian (SDR: easy assignment...give them more massa cards, it's worked) ID#237299:
a charm here in the U.S.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 17:09
moa (Greenstone...point taken) ID#269128:
but if ya can't get a f**k at a party of catholic schoolgirls...then it ain't gonna happen!

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 17:09
Gollum (On the other hand, they're afraid of inflation?) ID#43349:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 17:07
moa (How low will silver go?) ID#269128:
What happened to Mr. Buffets floor....looks like he'll be living in the basement for a while eh?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 17:06
Greenstone Gold (SDRer..................with respect, get real...........) ID#428218:

We need to put together, over the weekend, a comprehensive and foolproof plan to MAKE the Japanese spend their money......

The Japanese survive buy saving, and not spending, their money !!

Who has more in common:

1. A Japanese and an American

2. A Japanese and a Scotsman

3. An American and a Scotsman

A coconut for the winner..............

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 17:06
Gollum (Now the hedge funds are betting on deflation?) ID#43349:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 17:01
Greenstone Gold (moa............GOLD price........) ID#428218:

A one night stand, does not represent a marriage !

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 16:59
Gollum (Bashing bonds) ID#43349:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 16:58
SDRer (ALERT: Critical Mission Assignment/Kitco Bored) ID#290172:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Bulletin: The Economist, Oct 10th ~ Oct 16th 1998
Japan, the yen and the dollar
Japan, alone among the rich industrial countries, is suffering from genuine deflation: consumer spending is dropping as people postpone purchases in the hope of buying more cheaply later, and personal savings are rising.

SOMETHING MUST BE DONE, SOMETHING DRASTIC, to encourage people to spend again and TO MAKE SURE they have the wherewithal to do so. Economist, p 20

We need to put together, over the weekend, a comprehensive and foolproof plan to MAKE the Japanese spend their money. The other day in a ( I thought at the time ) tongue-in-cheek post, I mentioned Consumer
Police ( redundant middle management persons might make an excellent force ) . Should the Japanese have a Spending Quota? Should there be Designated Shop Days, an on alternate days thingy ( A-M on Tuesdays and Thursdays, e.g. ) ?

This is obviously the Grand-Plan-in-Waiting. Forget gold. Forget Family and Friends. Forget gold, gun and grubs ( why are we gonna eat grubs anyway? ) Let's put our heads together and design the Spending Plan That Saved The World Financial System. We CAN do it!

PS-Remember now, it is NOT a question of getting money into their hands, the challenge is making them turn it loose!

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 16:57
Greenstone Gold (One must remember..................) ID#428218:
Copyright © 1998 Greenstone Gold/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

moa ( Gold's darkest hour. ) ID#269128:
Gold's failure to even flicker in a week of near panic in financial markets means somebody really does have control of gold markets.

What this means for the metal as a future monetary instrument is not clear, but it is not good. ................

The price of GOLD is controlled by a cartel.

One must sit back and reflect.

The US National debt, both direct and indirect.....

The export of the US$ and it's hidden infaltion......

The would suggest that Russia never had, by an order of magnitude, the debt of the US.......

The Japanese investment in the the Japanese own the US ?

GOLD, and who controls the mining and banking related to this....

Young WJC, someone has to take the fall. Impeachment, the decline of the DOW, the decline of the US$.........all happening at once.....

The EURO..........

The GOLD derivative market, the vacuum of 8000 tonnes short gold......

The GOLD price, in a significant number of currencies has already's turn relative to the US$ will take a wee bit of time.....

And, last but not least.........lets leave this one open !

When you add fuel to the fire, the fire keeps on burning........


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 16:54
MM (huge) ID#350179:
Now trying to figger an entry point. Maybe in a couple of weeks.
What is a tupping crayon? ( revealing even more of my ignorance )

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 16:52
Gollum (Just imagine) ID#43349:
The money an Austrailian or Japanese or whoever could have made shorting gold today.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 16:47
Gollum (That was quite a day) ID#43349:
Now for the long wait untill Monday.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 16:34

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 16:29

This is occurring while August von Finck increases his holdings. See second story down

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 16:25

This is occurring while August von Finck increases his holdings. See second story down

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 16:20
aurator (got tupping crayon?) ID#25490:
is the phrase wool gathering in popular usage in Merka?

Cos gold bugs have been wool gathering for years. How about ewe?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 16:13
MM (Approx close) ID#350179:
( PCLOS = prior close. )

It was a good run, +30% what's to complain about?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:57
moa (Gold is no longer an option.....) ID#269128:
It's stocks or debt ( bonds ) .

While there isn't ANOTHER player big enough to move gold out of OTHERS control we are doomed to be slaves to debt and usury.

I'm going hermit to escape this mind control.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:56
EB (tol#1.....Namastæ señor.........) ID#230216:
I have been long the futures since the golden substance first graced my tonsils....AGULP....y pero claro........APUFF to ya. If you care to pick me up on the way to help with the sisters travel comforts please let me know. I am a giver remember.....always a giver never a taker........give give give.......that's me.

Although at end-o-October I will be LONG Oct RUM futures.....whilst cruising in a BIG boat ( royal carib ) ..................the pit boss already has my seat location at Roulette and a my favorite corner spot at the crap table................To bad they can't race ponies on board.............too crowded they say.......with the scantilly clad peopleos and all................. ( smile ) ............... ............................. ( plenty-o G$P's to be had ) .........I am counting the hours until my toes squish between the lush sandy beaches of Jamaica................perhaps some relaxing surf and sun and fun and rum and golf and G$P and etc etc etc........lots-o-that ( ! ) ...

Too bad......I usually close out all my positions before HOLIDAY......and I think end-o-October will be pretty lively......oh well, ya need a break now and again........may as well be flat on my back in a the sand on a balmy night with a fully should I say glaze..................... ( ohmy ) !

Life is good TOL#1 that you are in my life......uh huh.

go beanies.......go Padres............... ( ! ) .. grind and help humans to see clearly now the rain is gone.......


oh yeah......go gold. today is much faster now that we don't seem to have huge repetive postings............

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:52
OLD GOLD (XAU pounded) ID#242325:
XAU down about 8% as Dow Jones soars. Looks like those of us who sold near the top hoping to buy back at considerably lower prices will get our chance. All the way with RJ.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:43
EJ (rich ) ID#229207:
Patience, my friend. The sheep must first be rounded up before you can collect the wool.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:38
mozel (@Control of POG) ID#153110:
Taking Angel at his word, the Fed controls POG. This will end when gold is no longer traded at LBMA for greenbacks.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:37
aurator (Yes, it's flocking behaviour ) ID#25490:
I agree entirely with your post, except that Blanchard has been recommending Trillion for over 3 years, not just one.

I guess, by the laws of statistics, he's got to be right one day, eh? I remember a broker I approached some years ago with my gold mutual fund prospectus asking me if I'd heard of Trillion ( spoken with messianic zeal, glistening in his eyes ) well, I hadn't then. But I started to watch it.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:37
Silverbaron (aurator) ID#288466:

PS I don't own any DROOY.....sold it & but may buy it back if it drops below $3.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:35
Gianni Dioro (Gold and Hedge Funds) ID#384350:
Wasn't there a rumour that LTCM had a short position around 280 and a long position around 310?

If they had written calls and puts on these positions in a straddle then maybe there is a reason why Gold has been holding a range.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:32
mozel (@Allen) ID#153110:
How would it change your scenario if you were informed that the Banks have been made federal tax payment stations by Act of Congress ? I can dig out the documentation if anybody is interested.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:31
pictech (her are the facts) ID#214218:
here are the facts- yearly global production of gold 3000 tonnes. fabricators - sold forward 8000 tonnes Mines - sold forward about 3000 tonnes hedge funds - about 3000 tonnes Australia - about 40m ounces USA - about 20m ounces SA - about 20m ounces I do not recommend anyone using these numbers for trading, these numbers were given to me on Thursday and could have changed.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:31
Gollum (DOW +175) ID#43185:
Past 7900 and climbing...

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:30
Silverbaron (aurator) ID#288466:

Yep....Front-running is common, although I have no idea if it is the case with this particular stock ( since he has been pushing it for a year now ) .

I've learned over the years NEVER to buy anything recommended in one of these newsletters ( Blanchard's or otherwise ) until a few weeks/months and all the hype passes. You can almost always get things cheaper if you're patient and do your homework.

Even so, there are a lot of people out there looking for the latest hot story and they will buy as soon as the story reaches them.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:30
aurator (CC = ¿Cash Costs?) ID#25490:
I guess you've not been around long enough to know of Randlord Disney's novel and most illuminating number crunching methods. I suspect you are just taking the company's cash costs, as the company states them, rather than ( Ludd forbid ) read the annual report and mine the data. It's all there. From memory, last time crusty ( what a •truly• generous fellow he is , to share his *own* work with us ) posted his cash cost analysis of Barrick, it was something like US$310 per oz. You will note there is some disparity between this figure and the company's own figure.

Randlord Disney may yet illuminate you, if you ask him nicely.

Got Balance sheets?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:30
messy79 (rich) ID#346209:
You don't suppose the stock market has already *discounted* the bad news.
Re XAU:loads of candlestick sell signals yesterday and I got nervous
last week when all the gold bears suddenly got bullish. Then I heard that John Murphy was bullish ( usually a sign of a top ) .

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:26
Jack (Cage Rattler) ID#254288:
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

You're right gold falling or remaining static with a
falling dollar effectively has made it cheaper in
foreign currencies. Ideal time for Japan to carry out its past threat.
I read somewhere that gold purchases by indiviguals has
increased materially in Japan.
This is also the case in the US. It seems that WJC's
boys have got to stop this logical trend and hold gold
down at all cost.
I wonder what effect the stock market fall has had on the administrations projected plan of keeping the balanced budget farce intact ( not considering the addition SS payments ) .

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:21
MM (Fire) ID#350179:
Going, going, gone to whoever will take it. I'm gonna miss those aether paper bits... sniff XAU at 76.87

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:18
aurator (Front-running ain't so good for your readers, they are back-runnNing....Do YOUR OW RESEARCH) ID#25490:

Of all the Gold Newsletters I have seen, Blanchard's The Gold Newsletter is the best, but I sometimes get the feeling that he's off-loading his own stakes in his recommendations to his clients.

As we've been talking trillion recently, here's what Blanchard said
June issue of Gold Newsletter. 1995 :

As the saying goes, If you liked Trillion at $6.00, then you gotta love it at $3.70. All joking aside, the only thing that's changed since Trillion was selling for $6.00 is that the news has gotten better.

( well the price didn't improve much, eh? )

Some call it front-running. Others say it's business as usual. ASB

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:11
rich (So the stock markets loves bad news) ID#411320:
Job layoff by major companies, impeachment inquiry, financial global
financial meltdowns, looks like the game is a bit rigged wouldn't
you say.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:09
Gollum (DOW +154) ID#43185:
DOW moving right on up there. Everybody getting ready for Monday.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:07
TYoung (When will they lose control?) ID#317193:
Gold should have risen much more considering the current events. They held the price down. How? By selling more than others wanted to buy. Simple Econ 101.

Who are they? Try further simple participants. Hedge funds are in this catagory. Open your minds eye...maybe a bunch were long from the $270's and sold when they got margin calls.

The definition of hedge fund does not include...short gold. If I was betting on the long bond going down long gold is not a bad hedge?

Just a thought.


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:07
Cage Rattler (VIX analysis yesterday proved to be pretty accurate for the Dow today) ID#33184:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 15:03
CC (DISNEY) ID#334219:
Copyright © 1998 CC/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I don't know all the numbers for the XAU, but Barrick And Placer which are more than 50% of the XAU have total mining costs of US$160 per ounces.

As for valuation, Take Barrick. It is certainly selling more than Harmony on a P/E and reserves basis...but that doesn't make it that much overvalued compared to HGMCY. Barrick is selling for a Cash flow ratio of 15. As you know in NA, cash flows are what's count...not PE.s No matter what accounting methods are used.... the bottom line is how much it costs you to mine the stuff.... That is why the XAU seems to be selling at a premium vs SA golds.

Don't misunerstanding me, I am not againts SA golds. When gold makes its run to $1000 the SA's will soar. My problem is that if gold goes below $200 for a long period of time ( say 2 years or more ) , Barrick and Placer will still be around and in good financial shapes...but will the SA's be in good shape. How do their current short term assets compare to Barrick strong cash position.

Finally, ask yourself this one question:

Why is a stock like Harmony..that has similar reserves to a Barrick and greater than Placer, is unable to produce more than 1/3 or 1/4 the ounces ABX and PDG are producing on an annual basis ? No matter the answer to this question, the implication is that one cannot value Harmony's reserves in the same way one values Barrick's reserves. Who cares if HGMCY can produce 1M ounce/year for 80 years...I prefer a company who can turn out 3-4M ounces/year for 20 years.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:52
LSteve (Check out this chart.) ID#316256:
Copyright © 1998 LSteve/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Check out this chart for NEM

Notice the steep price fall on declining volume. By the end of the day this stock will be relatively cheap. It will have a strong up day on Monday. Media will pound everybody over the weekend about how bad things are or are getting. People will be buying this guy Monday morning. Sit back and watch or make some money.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:49
Silverbaron (Mooney @ silver and the gold/silver ratio) ID#288466:

$4.60/oz or so is a good first target for silver ( this would be at a gold/silver ratio of about 65 ) .....but the REAL make or break point for silver is at a gold/silver ratio of 70, which would be at about $4.00/oz

This is where the current short-term uptrend ( for the ratio ) hits the longer-term down-trend, which should be VERY good overhead resistance. Don't be too surprised if the $4.60 fails, and silver goes to about $4.00 before starting back up for good.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:42
sno__A (XAU to high?...may be boomers) ID#289417:
I think, what we may be seeing, is the boomers moving into gold mutual
funds/mining shares.....going by past experience, they don't care about
underlying value, as long as something is moving pm stocks may
rise, even if gold stays flat....good luck....steve

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:40
Cage Rattler (What if the gold price has effectively already fallen and no one had noticed ?) ID#33184:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:39
rube (gold) ID#333127:
It's fri, no need to hold gold

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:37
Jack () ID#252127:

In view of the sharp dollar fall it is difficult to see gold in this continuous rut, surely with all the negatives globally more than a few $10 to $20 dollar plus days in spot gold are in order.

That these people can create credit money from nothing for their commrades sorry asses, is probably the reason; or maybe golds inaction is a delayed reaction.

I have more respect for counterfiters, at least they have to prepare the plates, print and distribute their booty, a bit more laborious than the fractional system.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:31
Silverbaron (Mass mailing ... for DROOY article in Gold Newsletter) ID#288466:

Today I received a free copy of the current issue of GOLD NEWSLETTER which is dedicated to DROOY.... I would expect this to pull in some additional buyers next week who aren't subscribers of the newsletter.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:30
LSteve (Excessive pessimism) ID#316256:
Copyright © 1998 LSteve/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Ok, golds down a little today, mining stocks are doing some retreating. What do we know. Apparently the Fed can control the price of gold. So all this talk of Japenese and Indians buying gold isn't going to affect the POG. What we've got are hedge funds that are in deep kim she. Think about it. The head of one fund that just went into receivership didn't bother calling his banker, hell he went straight to the Fed. Ah, the Fed again. Also rumors are that the options don't expire till December. They don't want gold to get cheap again because that would fuel the fear of deflation..depression. They can't let gold get above $310 because the hedge funds would really get hammered and possibly induce global financial meltdown. So what will happen. They'll keep the price right at $300.00 until the hedge funds they care about are unwound, then they'll let gold go up again. When? End of this year, early next year. Meanwhile gold equities will get a little cheaper, and then off to the races again. Take this opportunity to buy, cause I ain't seen nothing that says the meltdown has been averted, and Y2K still lurks out there waiting to unleash its chaos. Next week we'll be talking about Brazil alot!!

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:27
tolerant1 (EB, Namaste' and a huemungous gulp to ya from the Island that is Long...some advice) ID#31868:
go long tequila futures at the end of October...I will be in Meh-hee-coh and intend on putting a serious dent in the export of their world renowned Blue Agave offerings...yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

Futures...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...where else would we live if not there?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:27
Obsidian (Allen(USA) I don't think you should pull any punches, Allen-) ID#237299:
now that you've told us the optimistic version, why not tell us what
you really think? ;- )

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:25
Charleston Gold Bug (COMEX Trading) ID#344389:
Does anyone know if COMEX trades gold
Monday October12 ? Thanks

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:24
Open-Loop (Drooy, Newmont sold And mopping the floor with Rangy And Homestake) ID#176200:
Dumped both for a tidy profit and ammo now dry for the expected pullback.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:22
mozel (@SDRer) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The basic tool for the manipulation of reality is the manipulation of words. If you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use the words.

I would amend this to read manipulation of political power instead of reality. In our day such word art is practised both in the legal profession and in the legislatures and by the journalistic, scientific, and academic factotums of intelligence agencies. As well as openly in partisan political activities. Hence, a babble exceeding Babel.

BTW, thanks for the Aristophanes. Here was a man who held up a mirror to his society and government, so that others might see, truthfully portrayed, another view of them. The employment of dramatists by the State, directly in more totalitarian times and places and indirectly as in some parts of today's American film industry, means the masters control the mirror as well as the thing supposed to be reflected in it.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:22
Boardreader (A target price for gold .......) ID#20767:
Copyright © 1998 Boardreader/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

October 9, 1998

We are as yet by no means out of the woods, but it will have to stay a bit scary to keep the Fed on its toes. The problem remains a deflation that will not end unless enough liquidity is added to get the gold price up beyond $325 but not beyond $350, where inflation kicks in again. Little by little, the financial establishment is learning about true monetary deflation -- and that it doesn’t like it.


After reading Jude Wanniski's course study of recent economic history, from which the above is a quote, I am amazed that the most important SE Asian event in 1997 is not even mentioned. The student wishing to gain useful intelligence, in any subject area, should first read, and fully understand the implications of, Edgar Allen Poe's The Purloined Letter.

Bob in DC

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:21
Silverbaron (Last chance to buy cheap gold coming up?) ID#288466:

Looks like about $283 is a good target for the next bottom....

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:12
Allen(USA) (chas@TheNotes) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Federal Reserve Notes ( FRNs ) are a known quantity to most people wereas gold and silver coinage is a rare if not unique experience. There are four instances ( IMHO ) in which FRNs become worth-less: 1 ) overpopulation of notes vs economic activity ( classical money printing in a pre-electronic money system ) , 2 ) popular preference for another form of currency ( barter, other paper, precious metal coinage ) , 3 ) demonetarization of that particular type of note by the government ( replacement due to counterfieting threat, etc ) , 4 ) overthrow of the government by a power ( internal or external ) hostile to the interests which hold the current paper as an assett ( for example communist takeover of China ) .

I feel that most of the world which will have no centralized government ( even a weak one ) remaining will revert to barter. I think that most 'first world' countries will continue to have governments, but they will be very, very weak and operate on a cash basis since bonds will not be trusted again for generations.

To my thinking we will see a horrible deflation from an electronic credit system to a cash only system. We could go as low as a 1% valuation based on a paper 'cash and carry' vs the electronic system of credit which prevails at this time. Paper money is what people know and it will be what they turn to in order to protect themselves and deal with in the future. There just is not enough gold and silver to deal with this problem practically.

Gold and silver will be hidden. There is so much less of it then paper cash floating around that it is absurd. Governments will use it as collateral to finance oil and other absolute necessities across international trades.

I believe that some time in the late 2000's, say 2005 or 2007 we will see a stabilization where gold and silver will be brought more out into the open as a reserve assett used in finacial operations. If you own gold then you will be 'in', a wealthy person. In this case a fractional gold coin would be useful to more finely tune ones transactions and investments.

So one strategy would be a high level of self sufficiency ( farm ) , barter-ables ( food, clothing ) , alot of common coin and small denomination paper money ( unadvertised ) , a well hidden batch of silver and gold coins for the rebuilding of the future economy.

We must think of rebuilding after a war as an example. In the USA the physical infrastructure will still be there, slowly rotting away. Someone once said that war was the act of reducing the enemy's economic strength by at least 10%. I believe we will experience a reduction of economic activity by 75 to 90%. So I think this is comparable to Europe after WWII. We are going back to a subsistence lifestyle in a big way .. those who survive the transition.

I fully expect tens of millions of people to die in the first year in the USA alone do to privation, starvation, violence and disease. Disease will take the greatest portion. Our sins are great, especially toward the defenseless unborn. We will pay for this by our own hand not by bombs dropping on us.

Your project is commendable in that it should reduce the entry level threshhold for purchasers if you can get to it in time. I would buy some. But the idea of reverting to a gold and silver based economy, well I don't think that will likely happen this time around. Maybe later as rebuild starts, but not as daily money in hand.

I am collecting copper pennies, copper coated zinc pennies ( seperately ) . I believe there will be a dismantling of cities to supply the growing ring of villages surrounding their remains.

Also a thought in the US: If you can't verify a property's rightful owners who will buy? If our legal systems and documents are all scrambled and loans are not purged then who has rightfull ownership? Who can transfer? Who will be willing to commit to a property whose boarders, owners and rights could be in dispute? No one. There will be some nasty business over this problem I'm sure.

OK. This all sounds pretty tragic and it is. I'm sorry if this upsets anyone. This is what I see. Course corrections are always done, but you have to have a target you are shooting at ( moon ) . The above position is profitable regardless of the severity of the coming tome of retribution.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:11
OLD GOLD (EB) ID#242325:
I think you are right in arguing that gold will not go much above $300 anytime soon. Gold's performance of late has been pretty pathetic considering all the turmoil in global markets including a huge drop in the dollar. Even Martin Armstrong is surprised that gold hasn't responded better to this market turmoil. So it does look like we may head back to $290 on POG and 70 or so on XAU. And looks like RJ's argument that we will have to wait until next year for a really big move will be proven correct.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 14:02
Envy (World Markets) ID#219363:
When dollars sell with bonds and Gold stays stable in dollar terms, something extremely counter-intuitive is happening. Either 1 ) gold had already figured it in, or 2 ) Kitco's deflation is accelerating and we're basically sitting in a little boat, drifting slowly around the edge of the vortex that will eventually take us to the bottom.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:58
lefty kiwi (my previous ) ID#32176:
low price should be $103.50 of course

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:55
Gianni Dioro (Irish Central Bank lowers Interest rates 1¼%) ID#384350:
Trying to bring rates more in line with low Euro rates, the Central Bank lowered key interest rate 1¼%.

The ISEQ index was only slightly higher, and key financial stock Bank of Ireland was off 6 at 974.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:53
Cage Rattler (@suspicious - Selling of what ? Equities, bonds or something else ?) ID#33184:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:52
John B (MM) ID#77133:
Fitting piece for today indeed.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:47
Gollum (DOW +77) ID#43185:

Resetting levers in ten minutes. Starting countdown.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:47
John Disney (XAU) ID#24135:
to all
Someone just posted that the XAU is overvalued. I
could not agree MORE. I am curious about the average
mining costs of the various mines that constitute
this index .. Also the number of oz of resource per
share ..
However.. the better RSA mines are not overvalued ..
I believe Harmony will come out with about a rand per
share for the quarter .. that's 4 rands per year ..
at a 10/1 pe thats a 40 rand ( $6.97 ) share .. at a
typical North American p/e its a lot higher.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:46
lefty kiwi (re gold's failure to keep rising) ID#32176:
Just to remind you that 18th October appears to be a foci point on a Carolan Spiral Calendar ( f25 ) for gold back to the August 1976 low of $1103.50.
This spiral is confirmed by a number of significant hits and I would be very suprised if a low or high is not recorded close to this date . IMHO this spiral has to end before gold can increase significantly .
Gold should show weakness through to this date but accelarate upwards from then .

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:44
Gianni Dioro (Repost) ID#384350:
I posted this about 1 and 1/2 weeks ago. Info by email from a really bright futures trader I know. A great call on Beans.
I am currently expecting it ( S&P futures ) to top out on Oct. 1 ( this Thursday ) ,
probably at about 1105-1115. From there, I expect the bear market to
resume, taking it down to the 850 zone by mid November.

I think Gold will continue to decline moderately into February, at which
point a bull market should begin.

I think the Euro-currencies, bonds, and Euro$ will continue higher as
long as the S+P declines. So the rallies will presumably continue into
mid November, when the S+P hits bottom. I'm less otpimistic about the
Yen and Canadian; they should both rally, although more moderately.

The soybean and corn markets have big turns coming up next week,
probably on Oct. 6. They are both due to make significant lows at that
time, particularly soybeans. It looks to me like they are going to begin
major bull markets, probably lasting into June/July 2000. I would
strongly consider taking a position next week.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:41
Gold Dancer (IMHO Gold vs. Silver) ID#377196:
Copyright © 1998 Gold Dancer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Nothing happens the same as in the past. Those of you who are
looking for silver to be the first metal to rise as it did in 1979 to 1980 period are going to be dissapointed. Those times were different.
We had rampant inflation and the Hunt's cornering the silver market.

Today we have defation in financial markets and hedge funds short
thousands of tons of gold. Plus thousands more tons of leased gold.

The past is not the future. Gold will rise first and be the # 1
choice of investors. THis is already obvious in the markets. Don't fight
the tape.

The gold market is huge. It is the money for international settlements
and trades every day at hugh volumes.

Silver is secondary money. Useful only in junk silver coins and
I reccomend having some. Silver dollars are OK.

But if your stock portfolio is heavy into silver you will underperform
for quite a while.

My weighting is 90% gold and 10% silver/nickle/zinc. In the future
as gold multiplies my gold stock investments I will slowly move money
more and more into industrial metals. But that could be 1 1/2 to 3 years
from now.

It isn't that I don't like silver. It is that it is not as good as
gold in this environment.

I have heard the stories on Buffett. Did he really buy all lthat silver? Probably, but it wasn't that much to him. I bet all my net
worth that he has bought many times more gold: either stocks or metal.
Silver announcement was just a diversion. After all, how does some one
like Buffett get any position without creating higher prices? He
doesn't talk about it!!! And makes people look the other way. Buffett
make a mistake? I don't think so.

I have no proof of what he has done. I just look at the markets.
Buffett is smarter than I am and gold is by far the winner. So are gold
stocks. BY FAR.


Thanks, GD

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:41
MM (For some reason this popped into my head this morning...) ID#350179:
by Percy Bysshe Shelley
First Published in 1817

I met a traveller from an antique land,
Who said--Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desart . . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, the heart that fed;
And on the pedestal, these words appear:
My name is Ozymandius, King of Kings,
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

XAU searching for direction - bounced at 78.7 not inspiring.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:38
Suspicious (Let's see if we are in margin call territory at about 3pm et ) ID#285121:
Late day heavy selling today means we're on the threashold of a margin call induced decline. The majority of people in the market are to stupid to panic yet, or buy gold either. I know that's blount but it's certinly true. Let's just bide our time.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:38
Voyeur Professor (Crazytimes: Is Gold Dead?) ID#231101:
Copyright © 1998 Voyeur Professor/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

I remember reading an appealing essay posted in Gold Digest entitled, Is Gold Dead? The article traced the noble history of gold and conclued that gold would rise when this bull market shuddered. I believe the article appeared in the summer of 1997. Well, the market has shuddered, the dollar gone into retreat, the promise of falling Fed rates which would drop real interest rates, the emergence of a challenge to the dollar's hegemony in the euro, a paniced flight to safty sentiment throughout the world--all surely bullish for gold. Yet gold remains moribund, or carefully manipulated to keep it impotent. I must confess that if these circumstances weren't enough to help gold break through its resistance at $303, I believe gold's future to be no brighter than it has been over the past two years.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:31
James (POG acting dismal@With the poor performance of treasuries & the USD) ID#252150:
it should be doing a lot better. Up another 2.20 CDN on my PDG short, with a close buy stop in place.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:26
NightWriter (Very disappointing day) ID#390415:
Was hoping gold could bust through.

If it can't make it in these times, when will it?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:21
chas (SDRer your 12:50) ID#147201:
This is funny. It appears to be a joke. However, the next to last PPG is true, unless you think for yourself. I think you should write a sequel to Lewis Carroll.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:20
moa (Gold's darkest hour.) ID#269128:
Gold's failure to even flicker in a week of near panic in financial markets means somebody really does have control of gold markets.
What this means for the metal as a future monetary instrument is not clear, but it is not good.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:19
Realistic (Who's in juice?) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Historical low prices in most commodities are taking care of the excess supplies due to the Asian slowdown but as soon as there is a little disruption to the perceived abundant inventories, these low prices are exploding to the upside.

For those working with charts, you can take a look at what Soybeans did today but especially Orange Juice.

Some USDA reports were released this morning and some friendly numbers caused a big adjustment in the prices of these commodities.

Minor inventory drawdowns in most commodities can now cause severe price disruptions ( to the upside ) because price levels are so low.

If Silver inventories continue to drop and/or as soon as the perception will be that worlwide economy is on the recovery road, a severe price explosion to the upside is also a possibility.

Silver and Platinum are on line for the explosion but patience, prudence and sustaining power are required.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:15
Cage Rattler (Bonds went limit down recently) ID#33184:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:14
ravenfire (did someone forget to pay the US govt?) ID#333126:

must be all that smoke from the economy and the impeachment. but even civil servants need to eat sometime.

'night ( or morning or afternoon as it might be ) all.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:13
Good ol' boy (Whats it all about Alfie?) ID#26362:
Copyright © 1998 Good ol' boy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Have been hunkered down now for some time with excellent properties, good miners ready to start mining bonanza grade properties, waiting fo things to turn for the better. Seemed everyone was enamoured with the stock market and could care less about precious metals. No venture capial was available, no matter how good the deal. Now it seems the worm has turned. The market is down. There are problems aplenty in view and on the horizon which should dictate that precious metals regain some of their luster. But what has happened. Gold is barely holding its own and silver fell out of bed. What is it all about Alfie. I haven't a clue.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:11
EJ (The word on the street of fear: sell into any rallies ) ID#229207:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
By BRIAN HALE in New York

Wall Street's most volatile week this decade is ending in near-panic with a plunging currency and a tumbling long-bond yield keeping watch on the death-throes of the seven-year bull market.

( snip )

The mood in the world's financial centre has gone from negative to dismal to black over the past week, with Wall Street awash with rumours and hedge funds liquidating positions while beset by worries about a global credit crunch and fears of an apparent sudden fading in the strong American economy.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:10
crazytimes (Gold) ID#344326:
I can only think that the financial markets are in such bad shape that gold must be kept down at all costs and that this is the calm before the storm. If that is not the case, then gold appears to be hopeless. I am wondering if the people of the fiat have won.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:09
Gianni Dioro (LTCM, Russia) ID#384350:
Bloomberg news had reported that over half of the cash infusion to LTCM had been used up including the repayment of a loan in which CHASE was involved. Sorry for the lack of details, the story is no longer in the top 10.
Russia Turns to EU for Food

What was once ( pre 1917 ) one of the World's greatest exporters of food, it is now cap in hand before the EU.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:03
steady (XAU .VS. METAL) ID#285233:
XAU index has historically led the metal by one to there months in major moves up. Only once in the last 30 years both took off at the same time. As the debt gets liquidated during this deflationary crash gold's initial rise may be stiffled more than other times. The final outcome of the ongoing global financial explosion is clear. Buy the metal and selected gold mining stocks. Stay the course. The rewards will be incredible.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:00
Allen(USA) (SDRer @The BoneYard) ID#246224:
So I prophesied as I was commanded: and as I prophesied, there was a noise, and behold a shaking, and the bones came together, bone to neighboring bone. Ezekial 37

Dem dry, dry bones!

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:00
Mad Hatter (SDRer) ID#284230:

George Orwell defined it best in 1984 as Doublespeak and Newspeak

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 13:00
chas (Allen your 12:06) ID#147201:
Copyright © 1998 chas/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I assume you have noticed some of Sharefin's stuff on Y2K. There are certain areas where the awareness is strong. I have noticed that your warning re FRN's is moving out thru the population. If you are able to get the FRN's, it appears to me that they may become worthless. I wonder what you think about having spendable gold coins in the event that FRN's drop drastically in value ( domestically ) . From emails and some of the Y2K sites, I suspect that the lower income portion of th population have already looked at gold coins as a hedge. With a thoughtful consideration, do you think the 10 grain coin is one answer to the time when FRN's may become worthless?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 12:56
Bingo (AllenUSA) ID#259404:
Sorry, I meant your 12:06 post and left out the word to.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 12:50
SDRer (Welcome to the First Annual Celebration of Lewis Carroll Day) ID#93127:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
HK, Oct 9 1998
Only `legal' Gitic loans will be repaid
A spokesman for the mainland's central bank yesterday said repayment priority would be given to creditors who had extended loans deemed legal to the collapsed Guangdong International Trust and Investment Corp ( Gitic ) .

The basic tool for the manipulation of reality is the manipulation of words. If you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use the words.
Philip K. Dick. I Hope I Shall Arrive Soon, Introduction, How to Build a Universe That Doesn't Fall Apart Two Days Later

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 12:50
Bingo (Allen in USA) ID#259404:
On your 12:09 post, could you please post a reference site your figures.
Thanks much.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 12:43
Cyclist (HGMCY) ID#26467:
FWIW Sold XAU puts and bought back HGMCY ,nice prices.
Have a great day.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 12:37
DEJ (New Lows in the cards for gold?) ID#269191:
Copyright © 1998 DEJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I think so. This rally has been for the most part nothing but short
covering. The environment for a strong move in gold has been ideal:
collapsing dollar, sharply lower short-term interest rates, and weak
financial assets. So far all we've seen is an anemic $20 move in the
metal. Today's action is particularly disappointing.

I'm beginning to think the bullish arguments for gold are all suspect.
If there really is a big deficit between mine and scrap supply and fabrication demand and
this monstrous short position of 8,000 tons, why haven't
we seen a bigger move? Frankly, I bought into these but now I have my

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 12:22


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 12:21
ravenfire (@hugo) ID#333126:
well, a good profit is a good profit. congrats on a good call.

i'll be happy when my stock puts are in the money.

what worries me is the possibility of a bond *crash* ( like Gollum suggested ) -- now if only I had those bond puts ... would have sold enough to cover my money today ... leave the rest to see how much further they'd go... ahh. wishful thinking. c'est la vie.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 12:21
Cage Rattler (Anyone notice that the pound has just been taken out !!!) ID#33184:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 12:18
Mooney* (@APH) ID#350194:
APH! That's what I was asking you a few weeks ago. It seemed to me that you had thought we might still get another downdraft to those levels ( in Silver ) but then you had changed to predicting the then current bottom as being about $4.85 and then up. Well it looks to me that you were right on on that call and then it did make a healthy turn upwards. Now of course we are headed back down for a few days. If we do head down to fill that gap I will be jumping in feet first as that is a VERY low risk entry point and if it did drop from there it would be buy and hold time! ;- )

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 12:18

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 12:17
RB (mozel 05:04) ID#408170:
Like your train if thought. My wife says almost everything
is a lie or some sort of coverup or deception in this world,
so I said to her, taint so. I know for a fact they had to kill and skin 10 naugas to cover my office chair. They told me so, for sure!
Thanks RB

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 12:13
EJ (Investor Savvy) ID#229207:
Savvy investors sell when they HEAR the truck coming.

Less savvy investors sell when the SEE the truck coming.

Naive investors sell when they FEEL the hot grill on their skin.

Most 401K and mutual fund holders have heard the truck but haven't really felt it yet.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 12:09
gunrunner (Interesting indeed) ID#354133:
With Plat and Silver taking a nose dive, Gold is holding up well.

Jan Plat 345.60
Dec Silv 487.0
Dec Gold 300.1

Preacher - Thanks! Wish you could post more.

T-1 - Jealous I am. G & P to 'ya! Don't forget plenty of protection for your long positions....

Mozel, Open Loop - ! ( Interesting reads... I could tell you some stories about the ATF... )

J -

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 12:06
Allen(USA) (chas) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Right now it seems to be awareness and risk evaluation first time around stuff. But the fact is THEY are asking outright. Mostly people in the upper technical areas, possibly whose spouses has looked into it recently. Getting confirmation? Asking about our business position.

Not guns, not yet anyway.

More about banks .. and withdrawing cash.

My standard response is ( with all seriousness aside )

Wait until you see a line at the bank, then get in it.

They understand after that. Those who are first in line never knew they were first in line, did they?

Only US$140 billion in circulated cash.

Over US$30 TRILLION in accounts, bonds and other 'liquid' assetts.

Over US$3 TRILLION in cash accounts.

The FED publicly says they are 'concerned about liquidity' and have a plan to have US$200 billion to throw at the problem ( !! ) .

My read: You can bet your sweet bippy we will not allow the 'herd' to leave the pens. We have this cash in case the Federal Government must operate on a cash basis. It will not be going into the publics hands at any cost or for any reason. We will regulate you to death like a python .. little cash allowed to be withdrawn at any one transaction.

Count on it. They know the situation. They can do basic math. They are preparing for a world not like today .. except in Indonesia.

Anecdotal comment by exwife of Fed employee,

My ex says they are very worried at the Fed where he works.

Enough said.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 12:02
Mooney* (@Mexico) ID#350194:
Tolerant1 - Ya did it! heh..heh...heh...aribaaaa, areeeeebbaaaaaa, ArrrrrreeeebbbbaaaaaaHHHHHHH!!! ( I guess you'll be too busy while there to send back detailed reports about which Gold and Silver mines are looking best in the land of the burning sun eh? ;- ) )

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:57
APH (Silver) ID#255226:
If long at 5.09 you should have been stopped out with no more then a 4 point loss. Buy Dec silver under 4.65. A monthly gap betweem 4.61 and 4.62 lies in wait.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:57
SDRer (de ankle bone connecta to de...) ID#93127:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
FT-Thursday, LTCM updates Bankers fear mounting LTCM losses

Concerns are growing among the financial institutions bailing out LTCM……since the terms of the bailout were finalised…several markets in which the fund has substantial arbitrage investments have turned even further against it.

For example, the spread between Danish mortgage bonds-in which LTCM is said by some bankers to be the SINGLE LARGEST foreign investor [read…this puppy is illiquid-SDRer] and Danish government bonds has widened from 193 basis points to 205 basis points since the rescue.

Spreads in the UK asset swaps market ( the spread between government bonds and interest rate swaps ) , in which LTCM was believed to be a significant participant, have also widened sharply in the past two weeks.

One market observer said hedge funds would generally have three times as much exposure to swaps as to bond markets, because the former are more homogenous and liquid.

There has also been speculation that LTCM hedged its exposure to the UK swaps market via the futures market in German government bunds. A squeeze in the September bund future caused mayhem in that market in late August and early September, though there is no suggestion LTCM was responsible.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:53
hugo (ravenfire-bonds) ID#402151:

noticed your post last week on the desire to be short bonds.
I took the plunge and bought a bunch of puts because it looked like a spike top to me. Sold out yesterday 1 hour too early. Doubled my money,but am sitting here beating my desk--made a $25,000 mistake just so I could hurry and go long gold.
c'est la vie

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:52
Allen(USA) (Selling to meet margins.) ID#246224:
Everything, anything, etc. Getting out if they can. We are headed to the slaughter house and they know it. The smell and sight of blood .. the Bull becomes the meal. Even the bones are used.

Imagine being the guy in the 'factory' that has to de-snout hogs to saticfy the demand for dog treats? 50 to 60 hours per week slicing off snouts. I think such a person would never be able to look at another person's nose without a twinge of somekind inside, eh?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:52
chas (Allen- your 11:46) ID#147201:
Are there any specific things mentioned in those queries you mentioned? IE- how do I protect myself, or is this just the beginning of awareness. Also, can you make any distinction between the herd and other income levels? Many thanx for any thoughts, Charlie

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:52
ravenfire (columbus day possibilities) ID#333126:
Copyright © 1998 ravenfire/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
adapted from various Motley Fool bear communion posts ( plus some imagination ) :

it's a holiday but the exchange is still open. thus, Joe and Jill Sixpack can stay home and watch as the ticker goes at the bottom of their TV screen as they watch their holiday afternoon show. market declines. having recently seen his 401K/mutual monthly report, he decides to go consolidate some profits/limit losses and take that holiday to the Caribbean he always wanted. so he calls his broker. unfortunately for him the lines are jammed. the brokers are not contactable. many million stock holders had the same idea. at the same time.

hehe. possible? just a pipe dream? comments?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:50
Preacher (Climax) ID#225273:
Copyright © 1998 Preacher/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I wanted to post this last night but wasn't able to get onto Kitco.

I think that yesterday provided at least a short-term climax in many markets. From here, the common stock markets should rally, the dollar should rally, and the precious metals should fall.

Still, the fundamentals say the opposite should happen.

The XAU is coming back to earth now. It has some downside gaps that it should try and fill.

It is troubling that with the devaluation of the dollar this week, gold did not rally in congruity with it. But I think a delayed reaction is inevitable. Gold should make up some ground on the dollar.

Short-term, though, I think being long the Dow stocks, long the dollar, and either short the precious metals or out of them altogether is the way to go.

Panic gripped the market yesterday, but the Dow 30 did not buckle, although most other stock markets made new lows.

The Preacher

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:47
tolerant1 (Mooney*, Namaste' and the last gulp to ya from this fine bottle of Patron...ahhhhh...) ID#31868:
prefer is such an ugly term...why choose...what good is one bookend without the other...heh..heh...heh...aribaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:46
Allen(USA) (People are waking up, folks.) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
People starting to ask the 'computer geeks', So, do you think we will make it..? There is a sea change happening. The herd is awakening. I have never had anyone ask about this in two years of following the Y2K thingie. In the past 2 weeks over a dozen have asked ( initiated conversation, inquiries - people with whom I have never mentioned the topic once mind you ) . The public word is being adsorbed ever so slowly. But it is being assimilated. As the financial 'contagion' begins to fell the strong and mighty, people are beginning to wonder what other things they have been missing in their state of benign slumber. Their world is getting increasingly more unstable. Once they start into 'protection mode' their will be no stopping them .. other than nothing to use for protection anymore.

Gun sales up this Christmas?

Preparedness companies in grid lock already?

You going to wait for someone to tell you there is a problem?

Somethings money can't buy. Can't buy me love .. no!

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:36
Mooney* (@Mexico) ID#350194:
Tolerant1 - Make us all real jealous and tell us that they are gorgeous twins and that they are both after you and that on this trip they are going to go all out to make you decide which one you prefer. Meheecooowwww!

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:36
Allen(USA) (Recent surge in 'rural' living course ..) ID#246224:
most programmers who are preparing ( upper state New York ) .

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:35
Silverbaron (RayZer) ID#288466:

Almost makes you think that everything with a US dollar price tag is on sale, doesn't it.

Gusess what? I think that is EXACTLY right.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:34
Allen(USA) (Gollumn) ID#246224:
I sell jumper wires with aligator clips if you want to bypass any of that 'safety' stuff. Throw the bar, man. Let's get moving!

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:34
Monkee Person (@ravenfire) ID#350199:
Sheez! That's the second time he's done that in...3 years. Wonder if his ( Dennis Hayes ) backers in Singapore and HK escaped unscathed?

Back to the markets.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:32
Silverbaron (EZ Believer) ID#288466:

Sorry - I don't do options on individual equities ( although I've looked at it recently a couple times ) , so I can't give you any good advice there. Generally, I use options as a hedge, not as a speculation. Maybe ENVY can help you out on your questions.

Notice that SOMETIMES there isn't much difference between someone who owns the shares and someone who owns call in the case of Pegasus. The only difference in such a case is you know at the time you bought them, when the calls are going to zero. ( ;^ ) )

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:28
BG (@ MM) ID#263465:

Keep one in the chamber for me......

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:22
MM (Safety is off) ID#350179:
Finger getting close to the trigger...
XAU 79.67

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:22
Gollum (DOW -26) ID#35571:
Strange. The ENGAGE button doesn't seem to work. I guess I'll have to back downstairs and start everything going by hand. Won't be quite as smooth. I'l be back...

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:22
J (Gold Commercial on TV) ID#174239:
While doing my normal channel surfing this morning I saw a long Monex commercial for the Canadian Monty. Usually I see mutual funds advertised in these spots.

This is the first Pro-Gold sign I've seen outside of Kitco.

I suspect this is the last chance to get out of stocks before they drop further and the last chance to buy gold at these prices ( at least until the world recessionary trend reverses ) .

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:19
Realistic (Gold) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Another very interesting article on Gold from Hightower Report, posted early this morning.

Dealers are still mostly bullish toward gold even if they are disappointed with the magnitude of the gold rally given big Yen gains. Traders today have to decide if they think the recent Forex action is capable of sustaining support of the gold market because without that contingent gold might slump. There was a story out last night about the soaring Yen causing a sharp increase in Japanese retail gold buying which is the beginning of the type of news needed to put the gold market into a more bonafide uptrend. Reportedly wealthy investors are buying bulks in kilogramme bars according to a member of the World Gold Council. The WGS forecast September gold sales were 5 times larger than the prior month to about 8 to 10 tons. It would help if Indian buyers would join in because gold needs a rounded demand scheme to start some optimism. Thus far gold is having trouble shaking the negative investment mantle thrown on it by the Central Bank issue. Freeport McMoran Chairman predicted golds return as a financial instrument citing hedge fund problems. Therefore, the trade is countering to a good degree the damage done early this week by the Central bank threat and could be slightly overbought. We expect the $300 level to hold and to move higher, an extra catalyst is needed.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:15
Novice (Gail Dudack on Wall Street Week:) ID#375108:
Don't miss it tonight. Gail, the elf Louis loves to hate ( but not as much as goldbugs and bond ghouls ) , is going to be one of the panelists. This, I think, will be the 10th straight week that Gail has been correctly bearish on the markets and the only elf awarded a halo. Louis will doubtless try to skewer and belittle her.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:11
tolerant1 (EZ Believer, Namaste' and a gulp to ya from the Island that is Long...options and) ID#31868:
such I do not fool around with...I would point you to ITRO in the US market and in Canada, FSR, MFL, and my personal favorite which I have been following for a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG time TNX...Tan Range Exploration...I think you will find that they do not provide the risk but offer what you are looking for...

Oh yeah...CFB in Canada...when silver pops...and it will...CFB will explode to the upside...

Good luck with whatever you decide and good hunting...

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:11
RayZer (Hmmm) ID#408147:
Dollar down, bonds down, stocks shakey, gold down...something's got to give here soon...

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 11:01
tolerant1 (I am living the good life and it just got better...yup...I have been invited to go to ) ID#31868:
Mexico to accompany a flight attendant and her sister...Meh-Hee-Coe...ah ha...Tequila...I have dun died and gone to Heaven...ariba, ariba ah ha...

7 days...six nights...if the revolution won't come to Kevy...Kevy will go to the revolution...and all that TEQUILA...BLUE AGAVE...

Carly Simon will have to re-write Anticipation...grrrrrrrrrr...chomp...chomp...chomp at the bit...

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:56
Gianni Dioro (Difference between bonds and bills) ID#384350:
is in my opinion likely due to the unwinding of the Yen-Carry Trade. Many European Bonds have been weaker as well likely from the same cause.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:55
EZ Believer (Silverbaron and all Kitco PM options experts.) ID#173262:
Copyright © 1998 EZ Believer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Just closed out my last short position and put options in the general market. Not that there might not be more to go, but the
premiums are high and the extreem valuations of many
have been slashed. In my opinion, the risk/reward of new
positions is less favorable than other potential alternatives.

I have stated many times on multiple forums the belief that certain
low priced junior mining companies offer the leverage of an
option without the menace of an expiration date. The returns of
certain out of the money put options purchased last spring remind
me that this is a bit of an overstatement. Yes, juniors offer multiple
returns but not like a bunch of out of the money options when the
timing is right!

Never having owned a PM equity, index, or futures option,
lets have some experts from Kitco kick around the following

How many PM mining companies have options trading
and how do you find all of them for research and comparison?

What are the alternatives for LEAPS for individual PM companies
and indexs.

Assuming the normal premium pricing for strike price
and time, what type of out of the money calls represent
the best value in terms of pricing for long expiration?

Finally, Let's assume the POG explodes and we hit it on the
head with some cheap out of the money calls.
-With every derivative there is a counterparty, even if traded
on a major exchange. What are the chances that the writer,
and due to a flood of losses, the options exchange might

With equity ownership at least one owns paper that represents
ownership of actual reserves. So perhaps when the dust
settles after a tramatic finacial event value might be realized.

Please advise.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:53
ravenfire (how many of you use Hayes modems? (or at least hayes compatible ones)) ID#333126:
the leader in modem technology ... *sigh* ... declares bankruptcy

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:51
tolerant1 (an excellent read if ya have the time...) ID#31868:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:50
Silverbaron (QUICK...check this out if your're interested in oil) ID#288466:
RNTK ( Rentech )

Worldwide agreement for licensing synthetic oil process to Texaco.

Watch the price.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:48
Boardreader (From Gold Price Monitor ......) ID#20767:
Copyright © 1998 Boardreader/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Secret deal on $US-yen dive


The word on the street of fear: sell into any rallies

One interesting/humorous trade that Long-Term Capital supposedly had, was short gold and long Venezuelan T-Bills. That would be one for the history books. .....Fleckenstein ( via Waldo, SI Thread )

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:46
ravenfire (tomorrow's Sydney news) ID#333126:
sell any rallies

AMP below float price ( hehe... pity I didn't buy those puts )

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:42
SDRer (Mozel Assay--) ID#290172:
Mozel's mind = Precious Mettle

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:41
tolerant1 (Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...I agree completely...yup...uh huh...yowzer...) ID#31868:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:39
tolerant1 (O' Canadaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa...) ID#31868:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:38
ravenfire (those long t-bonds) ID#333126:
mind you, i'm still not happy having *not* bought those bond puts a few days ago... oh well. c'est la vie

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:37
Gollum (@rich) ID#35571:
We'll move down in that direction. I see 7000 as about the bottom though, so I'm going to save it for a while.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:36
ravenfire (captain Gollum!) ID#333126:
sir! set coordinates have not been accepted by the navigational computer!

engaging warp drive now could result in unpredictable results!!

oh well.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:35
Gollum (A new trend?) ID#35571:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Not so long ago the Fed lowered rates by 1/4, London has followed suit, Chile will be. There has been much interest voiced for a coordinated lowering of rates by the G7 countries.

What would be the effect of EVERYONE lowering rates?

Much of the crises in the financail markets is associated with the US real interest rate being too high compared to other countries. If they all lower together, it will still be too high.

Of course the dropping dollar has greatly lowered real US interest rates, but we shall ignore that for the moment.

The net effect globally would be to make bonds less attractive than equities. Money coming out of bonds will counter the deflationary trend engendered by the various carry trades.

All together: Good for gold.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:33
chas (mozel) ID#147201:
The BULL ROARER is still alive.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:33
rich (@Gollem Which way is your lever) ID#411320:
Mine is pointed down to the 7000 mark how about yours.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:23
Gollum (DOW -28) ID#35571:
If everybody is strapped in, I've got the levers all set. Now I'm going to hit the ENGAGE button.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:09
Elroy (Jims) ID#228134:
Thanks for the post with regards to Greenstone

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:05
Straddler (Lurker 777, Chicken Man) ID#280215:
Copyright © 1998 Straddler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sorry I couldn’t respond sooner, but as I’ve said recently, I can’t access as much as I used to. I do try and post though when in my opinion, I see something happening. In this situation, I see an opportunity.

Lurker 777: Not sure if your prices are DEC 1999 or not, but I bought DEC98 300 Calls at 8.00 and DEC98 300 puts at 6.20. I agree that the 305’s would be better for the downside move. I just decided to buy closest to the strike at the time, which was closer to 300.

Chicken man, and Lurker 777: A minor difference between the 2 prices, but the calls are really just insurance in case my analysis is incorrect. The way this market is going, we could still get a run to 315 to 320, which would still be a great profit. The good part is that if this happens, the divergences will even be greater and there could then be a big move down, which would then also make the puts even more profitable than the calls.

Normally, my strategy is to try to buy the straddles when prices are in a triangle and going nowhere. In this situation, Bollinger Bands are usually real skinny. The calls and puts are cheap then due to the lack of volatility. You then usually get a profitable move in one of the directions at a decent profit. I subscribe to the theory/analysis that you usually get a sharp move in one direction when the triangle is broken. Then I exit both the puts and calls when the move is complete.

This time I am going against the norm and betting on a volatility play, and attempting to profit in Both directions. This is a volatility play for me this time. I’m hoping we get that rally to make the calls profitable enough to at least cover my costs for the calls and puts, and possibly a little more. But this time, I won’t sell the puts. I’ll leave them out there and wait for the drop to see if they can become profitable also.

My analysis tells me that we’re going down, but that we could still get some rally attempts. This is completely different from my normal triangle strategy. In the triangle strategy, I don’t even care what my analysis tells me. I just buy the triangle formation. In this scenario, I’m banking on some tech analysis to help out. If I’m wrong, I won’t lose money, just won’t make as much.

The only problem with any straddle play is if the price stays in a small range for a long time. This happened to me in gold some months ago and I had to exit for a small loss ( almost break even ) . Most of the time, however, I make something on these moves. In the straddle, if I lose, I don’t lose my shirt and I can simply buy another straddle and try again. Hope some of this helps. Good luck!!

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 10:05
Goldteck (Gold Is Hot Now, but Don't Be Blinded ) ID#431200:
Copyright © 1998 Goldteck/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Friday, October 9, 1998
Gold Is Hot Now, but Don't Be Blinded
By PAUL J. LIM, Times Staff Writer
  What,s New?
Given their phenomenal performance in recent weeks--and the new weakness in the dollar--gold mutual funds are all the rage again.
     But investors thinking of getting in now should tread carefully, fund managers and sector analysts say, because all that glitters in these portfolios isn't necessarily gold.
     Indeed, the vast majority of gold funds, which are still the second-worst-performing fund category over the last decade, don't own a single ounce of gold.
     Instead, they invest in gold mining and exploration companies, whose shares are often more volatile than the actual commodity.
     Recently, this has worked to their advantage.
     While gold prices have moved up only about 8% since the end of August, the Standard & Poor's gold stock index has shot up nearly 76%. Mutual funds that invest in these shares are up, on average, 48.5%, during this time, according to the fund tracker Morningstar Inc.
     The problem, as always, is that if gold prices should go down 10%, these stocks could go down 20%, 30% or 40%, said Jean-Marie Eveillard, manager of the SoGen Gold fund.
     What's the chance that gold prices will fall?
     Few expect a significant drop in gold prices right now.
     Indeed, Merrill Lynch & Co. precious metals analyst David Christensen believes gold could rise from its current price of about $300 an ounce to as much as $310 or $315 in the near future, especially if the dollar further weakens and loses its place as the currency market's haven.
     But analysts say a small drop isn't out of the question.
     That's because gold producers have been selling into recent rallies, notes Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. gold analyst Douglas Cohen. And rumors persist that the International Monetary Fund will soon sell off some of its reserves, raising the supply and pushing down prices.
     Should the commodity fall in price just 1%, that could translate into a 4% drop in earnings for gold-related companies because virtually all of their revenues are tied to this single commodity, fund managers say.
     And in this market, companies that can't meet earnings expectations can expect to be punished.
     Gold prices have been improving since late August as the global financial crisis worsened and as the dollar began showing signs of weakness, especially against the yen.
     The U.S. dollar serves as a global reserve currency as long as the U.S. economy is strong, said James Stack, editor of the InvesTech Mutual Fund Advisor in Whitefish, Mont. But now, with some initial fears of recession appearing and with the U.S. economy's feet firmly planted in midair, there's a likelihood that gold could retain its status as the currency of last resort.
     On Wednesday, for instance, when the dollar suffered a record decline against the yen, gold prices rose $4.60 an ounce to $300.70 in New York.
     Expectations for gold also rose as hedge funds that shorted the metal began to unwind those positions--that is, they had to buy gold to close out their short positions.
     Bill Martin, lead manager for the $169-million American Century Global Gold fund, said most hedge funds have finished doing that. Yet, we're still at about $300 an ounce, he said. That I view as negative.
     For gold prices to break out of this trading range--prices have been stuck between $275 and $315 an ounce all year--Martin believes interest rates would have to fall significantly, renewing concerns about inflation. Historically, investors held gold as an inflation hedge.
     What does all this mean for gold fund investors?
     Fund analysts say those investors who are buying into gold funds for defensive purposes--and not to speculate on gold prices--ought to stick to one of the following categories:
     * Funds that own some gold bullion. The presence of gold bullion in a fund tempers moves both on the up- and downside, said Christine Benz, a mutual fund analyst with Morningstar. For conservative investors, she recommends the Lexington Goldfund, which recently held nearly 20% of its assets in bullion.
     * Funds that invest in larger stocks. Not only do more established firms have predictable earnings, their shares are more liquid, fund managers say. So, if investors who recently moved money into gold funds turn around and redeem, fund managers who invest in larger companies will have an easier time managing their portfolios, Benz said. One example: American Century Global Gold invests more than two-thirds of its assets in medium and large companies.
     * Funds that invest more in North American mining stocks as opposed to South African companies. Stack notes that South African companies are known for running the highest costs in the industry. Should gold prices fall, then, South African mining firm margins would be hurt well before those of North American outfits. Stack recommends Fidelity Select American Gold, which invests more than 90% of its assets in North America.
    The Metal vs. the Stocks
     When gold prices rise, gold stocks and the mutual funds that invest in them soar, as they have since the end of August. Likewise, when gold prices fall--even a little, as they did in the first eight months of this year--gold stocks and gold funds tumble.
     Jan. 1 to Aug. 31
     Gold price: --4.6%
     Avg. gold fund ( Morningstar ) : --34.1%
     Gold stocks ( S&P gold index ) : --35.9%
     Aug. 31 through Tuesday
     Gold price: +7.9%
     Avg. gold fund ( Morningstar ) : +48.5%
     Gold stocks ( S&P gold index ) : +75.8%
     Sources: Morningstar, Bloomberg News

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 09:32
tolerant1 (Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...and I thought he jest brewed beer...huh) ID#31868:
´´All might be free if they valued freedom, and defended it
as they should.´´ --Samuel Adams

Visit THE FEDeralist at:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 09:08
jims (Has aph been heard from lately) ID#252391:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 08:54
Smithy (APH) ID#288353:
A penny for your thoughts on gold/silver/SnP....

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 08:27
EJ (Not a technical correction -- The Beast feeds on itself (big cut-and-paste from pay site)) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Business Council Survey of CEOs Finds They Expect to Reduce Spending, Hiring

October 9, 1998 Wall Street Journal Interactive Edition


WILLIAMSBURG, Va. -- Jolted by the deteriorating global economic picture and a likely
squeeze on profits, a majority of chief executive officers say they will reduce capital spending
and hire fewer workers in coming quarters.

According to a survey released Thursday by the Business Council, 95% of CEOs believe
financial troubles in the world's emerging markets will affect them; 41% said the effects would
be significant.

In the survey, council members broadly agreed that their company's pricing power has
weakened over the past year. Some 62% replied that they had less pricing power, and half of
those members expect pricing power to worsen in the next six to nine months. To address
these conditions, 80% of council members called for the Federal Reserve to ease interest rates,
69% advocated international fiscal-rescue programs, and 27% supported tax cuts.

Made up of active and retired CEOs of about 300 of the nation's largest companies, the council
meets three times a year to discuss economic and public-policy issues. The group's survey is
conducted twice a year. The most recent survey was compiled late last month.

The dour findings contrasted sharply with the mood seen in the group's meeting in May, when
80% of the survey respondents predicted that the worst effects of the international financial
crisis would soon be over.

Starting Friday, Business Council members will meet here in this historic Virginia hamlet for
two days of leisurely talks. They will ponder the state of the global economy and its effect on
business and discuss how they plan to weather the global financial crisis.

The group's survey, which includes views of about 75 Business Council members, suggests
that a majority of CEOs believe the U.S. economy is slowing. Three-quarters of those
surveyed say the slowdown in global growth would last through most or all of 1999. As a
result, a new wave of austerity is sweeping across the land. Indeed, 64% of the survey's
respondents said they plan less hiring, and 36% said they are reducing capital spending. Some
38% of respondents said they are capitalizing on conditions to purchase foreign assets at
attractive prices.

Yet the group's executive committee held a fairly upbeat press conference Thursday night, at
which many members expressed confidence in the fundamental soundness of the U.S.
economy and a belief that the business community can rise to challenges ahead.

Among five CEOs on the panel -- Larry Bossidy of AlliedSignal Inc., Ralph Larsen of
Johnson & Johnson, Walter Shipley of Chase Manhattan Corp., John Snow of CSX Corp.
and Douglas Warner III of J.P. Morgan & Co. -- only one, Mr. Warner, believes the U.S.
economy is headed toward recession. Still, Mr. Warner said this recession is likely to be
short and shallow.

He said corporate plans for cost cutting and reduced capital spending reflected in the survey are
traditional reactions to a slowing trend.

The CEOs were heartened by very low inflation and the federal government's budget surplus,
which they characterized as fiscal ammunition from the government.

Mr. Bossidy of AlliedSignal said the current U.S. economy is in good shape. He said there
is no denying that global crises will crimp U.S. growth and hurt some businesses along the
way. However, Mr. Bossidy said there is no reason to panic. We're not going to see carnage
the likes of which some people are talking about, he said.

Mr. Snow of CSX, a railroad and shipping firm, echoed that sentiment. He said CSX is
ramping up capital spending for its railroad business and is continuing to hire for domestic
shipping activities. The company is planning to cut back slightly on some foreign operations,
however. Of CSX's shipping business, Mr. Snow said that while there has been a reduction in
the traffic of goods leaving the U.S., the company is experiencing the highest demand ever
seen for import activity. Overall, Mr. Snow said: As of right now, the American economy is
still reasonably strong.

The CEOs all seemed to have an unusual comfort level with current world financial events.
Much of it comes from a feeling that they can react quickly to changes. I don't think American
corporations have ever been better prepared to deal with some of these things, said Mr.
Larsen of Johnson & Johnson.

Mr. Bossidy summarized the tone of Thursday's meeting: We will batten down the hatches,
he said. But it isn't going to be Draconian.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 08:27
Greenstone Gold (Studio.R......) ID#428218:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 08:22
Donald (European gold news; wealthy investors buying gold in bulk) ID#26793:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 08:21
Greenstone Gold (STUDIO.R ........nope..........) ID#428218:

I am presently involved with a private Kalgoorlie based company,my current project being at Kookynie in Western Australia.

My associates do have a potential project in Niaragua, on the door step of Greenstone Resources - which is a Canadian based company.

Keep your eye on Kookynie.............

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 08:14
Khamba (psychic powers) ID#269231:
RADAR LOVE yehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 08:13
Shek (Greenspan) ID#287279:
Copyright © 1998 Shek/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...So which is it Mr. Greenspan? Will you continue to argue for public subsidy of private risk? Will you continue to promise a slow squeeze on interest rates to grease the wheels of commerce and industry? Or will you do the right thing and argue for massive tax cuts instead so that resources might remain in the hands that created the wealth in the first place?
Do you stand for liberty and the sovereign individual, Mr. Greenspan? Or is the culmination of your life's work to be remembered as nothing more than the wilted shill of what is perhaps history's most talented and luckiest con man?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 08:10
Donald (European liquidity dries up; currency traders frozen with fear.) ID#26793:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 08:08
STUDIO.R (@Oris........) ID#119358:
we still got our chocolate deal, right? ( handshake ) off! to agitate spruce, maple and steel ( and perhaps scribble on paper ) . salud! to ya!! oris.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 08:08
panda (T-Bond/Bill spread.) ID#30126:
In case anyone missed it, and I'm sure you did because it took forever to load, I posted a chart of the T-Bond/Bill spread last night. Yes folks, people bailed out of the long bond and went in to 'cash' ( T-Bills ) in droves yesterday. Looks like AG was right. Everybody just wants 'out'. T-Bills being viewed as the 'ultimate' place of safety. Short term and liquid.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 08:01
oris (THC, you made me mad...) ID#238422:
What you did last night was bad, bad, bad.
You are bad boy ( girl? ) . Your trillon is bad too...
Never ever do this again, even by accident...

If you do it again, Earl and me will form a special
task force to deal with your problem.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 07:53
STUDIO.R (@Haggis........I must ask.........) ID#119358:
Are you affiliated with or provide geological services for this gold company called Greenstone? I have noticed posters talking lately of this public company.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 07:46
STUDIO.R (@GoOd Morning to Gollum y Chas.S........) ID#119358:
I happy to report that the mornings have been quite delightful of late, a wisp'o'nip. salud! to YA!!!

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 07:40
Greenstone Gold (And now for something completely different........) ID#428218:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 07:38
Gollum (@BCIWN) ID#35571:
I don't know. There have been some other levergae requests put in earlier. Some people are bored with silver as opposed to gold, others with the DOW as opposed to the broader range market. Once I get all those taken care of we'll see what time it is.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 07:29
Greenstone Gold (ROTHSCHILD.........) ID#428218:

start production management at the Davyhurst and Bannockburn gold projects in Western Australia, in an attempt to claim back some AU$ 50 million ...... problem is, little mineable reserves, and what exists should last 6 months to one year. A interesting test of character....

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 07:29
CharlieS (Studio.R) ID#298380:
You have an excellent view of the morning sunrise from the island
that is long I'm envious.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 07:28
Gollum (@STUDIO.R ) ID#35571:
Why does the word Becket come to mind?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 07:19
Greenstone Gold (Jims............) ID#428218:

Gold, in US$ terms, cannot be seen to having any influence in the role of events as they unfold. It's a case of ....give the US$ enough rope to hang itself, and only then will GOLD step out from the shadows as the new GOLDEN LIGHT showing the way to one and all.

This will undoubtably take timeeeeeeeeeee...............

Check out GOLD against a range of currencies.....



Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 07:12
Greenstone Gold (READ ALL ABOUT IT........the Australian GOLD exploration scene...) ID#428218:


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 07:09
STUDIO.R (@all the President's apes.) ID#119358:
Clinton doesn't have the balls to kill anyone...........but some of his squad do. In the nucleus of Clitton's atomic organization exists an incredibly insidious man...a believer who would perform any act to maintain the power of the cause and his master. This brilliantly insane advocate gives the orders to threaten, coerce, execute. Billy probably knows damn little of the bloody details.

Ask yourself who this man could be.....what would be his traits? I would put carville on such a list.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 07:05
Greenstone Gold (Correction......185 metres at 11.8 g/t) ID#428218:
Copyright © 1998 Greenstone Gold/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sunrise Dam Drilling Results

The ongoing exploration drilling programme at the Cleo gold deposit has identified a further extension of the ore body beneath the Sunrise Shear. Diamond drill hole CD306W1, which is a wedge hole off diamond hole CD306, has intersected 185 metres at 11.8 g/t gold between 549 metres and 734 metres. The intersection represents a southern and deeper extension of a zone of mineralisation below the Sunrise Shear known as the Western Deeps. This new extension of the Western Deeps is not yet clearly defined due to insufficient drilling. The intersection in CD306W1 appears to be associated with a steeply dipping zone at least 15 metres wide and extending to at least 650 metres below surface. Gold mineralisation within the steeply dipping zone is characterised by quartz lodes and breccia veins.

Och aye the nooooooo............

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 07:00
Greenstone Gold (Acacia Resources, Sunrise Dam project..... ) ID#428218:

115 metres at 11 g/t exploration drill hole intersection intersection ........RIPPER........

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:55
Roebear (Auric, many thanks) ID#412172:
Copyright © 1998 Roebear/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
For your 03:07 post of FT URL. Quoting from one of the dollar run articles, this makes great sense. There may have been more substance at the G-7 ( guess it is G-8 no more, haha; sorry CIS ) than they reported. I pay more attention to what they do than what they say.
From FT:

In recent days, some analysts have suggested that U.S. authorities were
tacitly encouraging the decline to help relieve financial pressure on Southeast Asian and Latin American countries and to prompt European central banks to lower their interest rates.

Jim O'Neill, a currency strategist at Goldman Sachs International, said he perceived a subtle but significant shift in Washington's stance toward the dollar in recent days in the comments by Mr. Greenspan, which many analysts took as a hint of further Fed easing, and by the Treasury secretary, Robert Rubin, who voiced concern about yen weakness rather than his customary defense of a strong dollar.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:52
Suspicious (War ! Hurry Slick and bomb somebody.) ID#285121:
It's the only way the Democrats can save their sorry political hides.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:52
STUDIO.R (@goldman, sachs & durban, ltd.) ID#119358:
the accumulation of durban shares is becoming quite obvious ( to my tired eyes ) . It is quite likely that some of our friendly, nice-guy, do ya' a big favor, brokerage houses are buying big for the house. Here in a couple of months you will be able to buy some durban from them @ 6 or so. Might we expect a recommendation forthcoming? teehee. ( we have upgraded DD from toasty to accumulate aggressively at any cost! ) oh hell, they could use some profit right about now.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:51
BCIWN (@ Gollum) ID#259323:
Good morning sir.

Gollum, I was wondering if you could do me a favor this morning at 11:15 or so

Would it be possible to move the gold lever a couple or 3 notches in the appropriate direction to put a little zip in the market this afternoon?

I will certainly appreciate it . Thanks and have a good day!!

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:50
rhody (@ aurator: Assuming your question is not rhetorical, swapping) ID#411440:
economics for war sounds like a good exchange to me. As goldbugs,
we signed up for this war as soon as we took a position in the
pm market. I wish I'd known that 3 years ago. On the other
hand, the herd is going to be conscripted for this war.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:46
Silverbaron (Does the REAL fun begin on next Monday?) ID#288466:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:43
Cage Rattler (Big hedge fund losses ...) ID#33184:
I hear this morning that hedge funds have been big sellers of Prime European government bonds, esp Bunds as they scramble to raise cash. LTCM reportedly has gone through half of its $3.5 bln bank bailout package, and that Tiger management took $2 bln in losses yesterday in the yen. I can't even imagine a position that large. I agree London that traders will welcome the Columbus day break, but hedge fund could still have some wood to chop. I would not be surprised that some are just hoping to make it intact to the weekend.

Source: Forex Forum

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:43
rhody (@ jims: Thank you for the COMEX silver stockpile data.) ID#411440:
The silver market is deceptively quiet. The projections I have
indicate a trading range around $5 for the next 3 ( THREE ) months!
So far Moore Research Center projections have been uncannily
accurate. It looks like it will be the new year before we
have much improvement in silver prices. With stockpiles dwindling,
we could have a run on silver before that of course. If that
happens, it will be shorted back rather than risk unwinding the short overhang.
All this just makes stockpiles shrink all the faster. Yawn.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:38
Silverbaron (S& P Analysis from Advanced GET) ID#288466:

Jims - looks like something is wrong with the silver stock numbers between 7th and 8th.....difference is more than 400K ounces.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:33
aurator (¿Have you seen the elephant? ) ID#25490:

The laws of supply and demand are not extinguishable, but we must ask ourselves •what• is being traded? We, touching only part of the elephant, see the outlines of what we know, silver and gold, dollars and yen, Dow and Dax. Others are seeing different patterns
What if the real trade was in not commodities, but in nations?
What if the real trade was not in paper currencies, but in sovereign power?
What if the real trade was, actually, war?
What would the elephant look like then? ¿Incomprehensible?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:33
jims (To Alrea) ID#252391:
So the Japanese are buying some gold - thanks for confimring to me that all rationality has not been lost - I feel better.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:33


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:33
Gollum (@alrea ) ID#43349:
Good post. I suspect not only in Japan. With the decline in the dollar gold and silver are coming down to bargain rates in many countries.

As demand picks up and sales mount, not only will PM prices be positively afffected but the dollars decline will be stabilized.

I wouldn't want to be in the bond market right now.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:30
jims (Rhody - does this help) ID#252391:
COMEX - 73,513,165 ( down 63,257 )
Oct 8 1998, 5:04PM EDT, mo102

COMEX - 73,974,982 ( unchanged )
Oct 7 1998, 4:35PM EDT, mo102

COMEX - 73,974,982 ( down 196,481 )
Oct 6 1998, 3:44PM EDT, mo102

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:25
alrea (buying bars) ID#200274:
Copyright © 1998 alrea/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
By Ayumi Moriyama
TOKYO, Oct 9 ( Reuters ) - The yen's surge against the dollar and recent turmoil in global financial markets has sent Japanese investors on a buying spree for gold, traders and industry sources said on Friday.

Gold has been selling a lot both yesterday and today. Wealthy investors are buying gold in bulks of kilogramme bars, like 10, 20, 50 bars at a time, said Itsuo Toshima, area manager of industry body World Gold Council ( WGC ) in Tokyo.

WGC estimated gold sales in Japan in September jumped fivefold to roughly eight to 10 tonnes from a month earlier.

People are turning to gold as recent events like the plunge of the New York stock market destroyed the safe-haven status of the dollar. This reflects the fact the world is in serious trouble, Toshima said.

Japanese investors, traditionally bargain hunters, have also taken the yen's surge against the dollar, which pushes yen-based retail prices down, as an opportunity to buy.

According to Japanese bullion house Tokuriki Honten Co Ltd, retail gold prices stood at 1,193 yen per gram on Friday, a level last seen in August 1995.

Yen-based gold retail prices began recovering last month after having been sustained above 1,300 yen per gram between April and August, as the dollar battered the yen owing to lingering concerns over Japanese financial woes.

But the U.S. currency made a sharp retreat against the yen this week, weighed down by sales by hedge funds and mounting concern over the U.S. economy.

It's a good deal when you calculate the price of gold in yen-terms using the current dollar/yen rate, said a trader at a major Japanese trading house.

Spot gold prices were quoted at $299.20/9.70 an ounce by 0749 GMT on Friday, up from Thursday's New York close of $299.80/30.

On Friday, Tokyo bullion was quoted around $1.50 over the London benchmark, reflecting the popularity of the metal, traders said.

A relatively large number of buyers were lacking gold supplies and that has fuelled purchases in the cash market since yesterday, the trader said.

Some industry experts said distribution channels for gold have diversified in recent months, with an increasing part of retail purchases made through the banking sector, in addition to traditional bullion houses.

The banking sector, including some major Japanese and foreign banks, has been a new participant since the Big Bang ( financial reforms ) started in April, Toshima said.

Competition within the financial sector has intensified as a result of the Big Bang reforms which aim to liberalise the country's financial markets by 2001.
05:48 10-09-98
Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:23
jims (Rhody - I think you are right...) ID#252391:
and from the miniscule size of the rally in gold and silver given the problem I'd say the CB and the funds have this thing pretty well under control for themselves. Maybe in the new year with the Euro that will all change? I am falling into the camp that believes nothing happens until the new year. A steady dollar price for gold and a falling one in terms of their own currencies seems to be what the European bankers will benefit most from.

I have a headache.

Off subject - noticed today in the press that the Chinese government has banned the Starr report in China.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:20
aurator () ID#25490:
If your puter is messed up, why apologies are always accepted in these parts.

You might like to ponder on this:

Happy is the man that findeth wisdom and getteth understanding. For the merchandise of it is better than the merchandise of silver, and the gain thereof than fine gold.
proverbs ( 3:13-14 )

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:18
rhody (COMEX STOCKPILES: Does anyone out there have figures on last) ID#411440:
two days of silver drawdowns on COMEX? With prices back down under
$5, stockpikes should be falling again. I wonder if even zero stocks
will cause a rise in POS I'm beginning to wonder if there
still is a law of supply and demand.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:13
jims (Quiet session ahead?) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Would appear that we are headed for a prettey quiet session in stocks and metals on Friday. Yen is hovering around 118.50 with a positive tenor. European stocks are up 1-2% and holding. S&P Globex is up 400-500 and gold is up one dime in London. Silver is dead unchanged.

Seems there will be more interest rate cut activity in Europe. How can AG cut US interest rates without pushing the yen up. ? I'm getting confused - not long ago we thought the yen too weak and lower interest rates would be good to correct that imbalance, now rates can't go down for fear of triggering another fall in Japanese exporters profits igniting the last steps to depression. Man what a mess.

Gollum - silver rose early this year then lease rates shot up, if memory serves me correctly. I think its a demand and inventory situation regarding silver. The price of the stuff is pretty weak everywhere to differenct extremns, of course. There is no shortage, why build inventories. Once we get another series of interest rates cuts and Japan tries running the printing presses maybe the Japanese will wake up ( WAKE UP!!! ) and put their money in metals -heck, they could lease it for as much as they are getting paid to hold domestic debt instruments. As cheap as gold and silver are NOW in yen - what an idea. Never expect the Japanese to do the logical from a Western perspective, anyway.

( If I offend any Japanese lurkers, don't be, at least you are here. Your country men have managed to buy the top of every investment bubble in the last twenty years. For once buy something that is cheap and set a positive example - help the world out of its mess by rising undervalued commodity prices and making some money in the course of it!!!! An idea, lost on those who will not listen - can't listen. )

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:12
ravenfire (which of these guys would you trust your money to?) ID#333126:
experts indeed... yeah right

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:08

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:04
rhody (@ Gollum: Yes, short term lease rates spiked up just before) ID#411440:
Copyright © 1998 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
silver tanked. This reflected increase demand for silver for
the purpose of shorting. The Funds shorted silver back down to $5,
and now they have the price where they want it and have stopped
borrowing metal. Lease rates drop. The same is happening to gold.
I think this shorting/lease rate action is defensive, not related
to trading for profit. If the funds let pms rise, the short overhang
is unwound. This would bankrupt many hedge funds, and pitch the
world financial system into chaos.

With lease rates so low, the Funds now have the means to control
pm prices in sync with CBs. Most CBs have more vested interest in
paper assets than pms. Ergo, CBs will help out the Fund's efforts
to keep POG/POS down, and USD up. IMHO. Hope I'm wrong.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:01
Gollum (Morning) ID#43349:
Globex up, weak, and falling
Long bonds up, short bonds down
Dollar down
PM's steady gold a little weak, silver a little firmer
Oil up

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 05:53
Gollum (@jims) ID#43349:
Silver will be very interesting to watch the next day or two. Lease rates are dropping ( whoever was leasing it to short the price down has quit ) and it's showing the pattern in the overnight markets where gold weakens but silver strangely does not.

My theory is that the guys who previously bought puts and then dropped the price are now accumulating calls as they prepare for a rise.

Wouldn't it be interesting if we get a big drop in COMEX stocks in the next day or two?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 05:46
Gollum (@rhody ) ID#43349:
Remember how lease rates for silver jumped up and then silver dropped?

Now lease rates for silver are falling.

Let us watch what happens next...

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 05:45
Ersel (SHOUTING.....) ID#230376:

auracious is hurts the eyedrums and the earballs......gottago bbml after a glorious golden sunrise........


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 05:44
jims (Falling lease rates not bullish) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gosh I wish for once those lease rates would rise. I'm tired of this. Must be that the money borrowed for leased and sold gold is so relative cheap that it will be the last positions to be unwound. There is probably the knowledge that Central Banks will defend $300.

Do you suppose there are five or ten people in NY and London that really know the people that pull the levers. You'd think they sell their story to the National Enquirer. How have they been kept quiet all these years?

Or do you suppose there isn't really anybody who knows and what we see is just the function of a free market.

Market action tells me gold and especially sivler isn't read to rally - have infact crashed in Japanese, DM and Swiss terms.

I'd pull up the cross currency/metal charts but I'm in a relatively high building and the window is open.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 05:35
jims (RE: Greenstone Resources / GRERF) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Earlier poster had asked what was happening with GRERF. Various sources say one house or fund was liquidating shares as part of an unwinding of a rather over agressive position. Company spokespersons saying all is well with projection of 150-200,000 oz production this year and 400K next.

Oct 8 1998
10:41PM EDT

I have watched GRE trading pattern on TSE. Trading
house 15 Bunting has sold over 1,65 million shares in the
last month. Just today they net sold 534,4000 shares. I
looked at the chart for today and noticed that they must
have sold into the market thus bringing the price down to
$2.00. They stopped all trading for the day after that. I
hope they are finished, but if they are not GRE will not
make any gains until they stop.

I spoke with GRE today. The lady they had to answer
questions didn't really know what was going on. I told her
that Bunting was killing their stock. She told me that
Bunting had a buy recommendation on the stock at $5.00.
I repied well they have a funny way of showing their
support for GRE.

I purchased this stock in two sperate accounts and I
beleive it is a good company. But we will have to wait and
see. I went thru this with Dayton as well, and I don't want
a repeat.

Note: Dollar amount are Canadian.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 05:32
aurator () ID#25490:


there's really no need to shout. There are many here who can ignore you just as easily if you use ordinary case typing.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 05:29
rhody (LEASE RATES for gold are under 1% again for one month terms.) ID#411440:
Lease rates for silver are falling. This is strongly deflationary.
Are you listening AG, or are you behind this?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 05:25
Ersel (Attorneys at law...) ID#230376:

G'day auracious ! remember........ if you laid all lawyers end to end...............that would be a good start. Go gold!


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 05:25
Gollum (@EJ ) ID#43349:
Remember what you said about CB's making money by selling gold? Think about this.

The CB's have large reserves in US dollars and treasuries.

The dollar is declining.

They are losing reserve value.

How will they pump it back up?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 05:20

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 05:18
aurator () ID#25490:
mornin', Eddie, mo:

Two small boys, not yet old enough to be in school, were overheard talking at the zoo one day.

My name is Billy. What`s yours? asked the first boy.

Tommy, replied the second.

My Daddy`s an accountant. What does your Daddy do for a living? asked

Tommy replied, My Daddy`s a lawyer.

Honest? asked Billy.

No, just the regular kind, replied Tommy.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 05:12
Ersel (ATTN: Cheeseheads...............) ID#230376:

For all skeptics of y2k .....Wisconsin will be ready; not complient, mind you, but ready. Be sure to page down .......Gooday from the chilly Midwest......


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 05:04
mozel (@What Markets ? or More Willing Suspension of Disbelief) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The Great Debate over the Is or Is Not status of the PPT reminds me sometimes of the Beer Commercial Debate: Tastes Great versus Less Filling. I think the PPT is akin to the Yeti. It has a certain ambiance when the subject of reports, but up close and personal, it just stinks. The pragmatists say, So what if there is manipulation. Just trade. I think it's a little misleadsing to talk about trading and investing in what is merely a betting parlor.

Anybody who thinks the rise of the Yen in recent days was a market event probably also believes in the Moon Walk. What Japan, Inc. did was official. It was governmental. There was no invisible hand involved. It was visible, hands on manipulation.

Let's get a little more real, people. The market in a global context has about as much in common with a real market as naugahide has with a tannery. What is going on is a charade, a huge mime's drama.

Thanks to the miracle of modern communications I am able to watch news from around the world. Watch is the operative word because I don't understand a syllable of Polish, Finnish, Turkish, Russian, Mongolian, Algerian, Japanese, etc. The talking heads, though, all follow the same format and the pictures tell a great deal, especially what you see in the background. You see culture. And what I see is how ridiculous it is to talk about stock and bond markets in the Orient in the same context as stock and bond markets in the Occident. Or courts. No, friends, the Orientals are doing an excellent imitation, but that's the sum of it. They have the form down pretty well, in some instances exceedingly well, but no grasp of the substance. Listening to the sounds of the sing song tongues, the mind boggles at the notion of doing half as well with something from the East as they have done with stuff from the West. It's astounding really how much of western culture they have picked up well, even if superficially. And how could it be anything more than superficial when the substance is not even tought in the West anymore, even in the majority of the law schools. If there is an exception to my observation, it is in the lost cause colony of Hong Kong or in India where common-law Law was taught for a hundred years by British administrators of uncommon rectitude and knowledge. America's Greenback Empire trained the colonials in what is essential for commerce; that, with the techno-science component included, was all.

What you need to do to appreciate fully how this thing must fly apart is go and read the Austrian School of Economics with an eye to how many of the assumptions and values are culturally centered. And contemplate the phrase Red Chinese Stock Market alongside the phrase Marxist Theory of Labor and Capital.

Japan, Inc. is a western misconception. Japan Tribe is more objectively to the point.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 04:53
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Dow/Gold Ratio for yesterday was 25.79. The XAU/Spot Ratio was .278

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 04:39
Donald (Freeport CEO bullish on gold) ID#26793:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 04:33
contrarian (jims) ID#203236:
yes I guess with all the hullaballoo looks like a lot of assets being liquidated, maybe including the metals and gold

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 04:29
Donald (Yen rise is a paper currency disaster in the making.) ID#26793:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 04:24
jims (Weakness in the metals to conclude the week.) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Well, by the time this day is over we'll have out in full force the posters will projections of gold to $286, 280, 250 and lower. Happens ever time we start down. Given the dollars weakness to all in Euope and Japan gold and silver have been dropping through the floor.

Failure of silver is especially disconcerning - seems the deflationists, recessionist are winning that day.

Gosh did any body notice the big withdrawal from the comex of Gold yesterday. Something like 8% of the gold left the vaults. HELLO!!!

With liquidity shrinking in the paper market place, I suppose there is less for gold. Think we are setting up for a stock market rebound of significant proportions beginning no later than today's close. Wish I had sold out my gold shares at the opening yesterday and picked up the SPY as it broke to new lows at 92. Think we'll be seeing 100 very soon on short covering.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 04:05
EB (speaking of Apaches.......(north 'merkan natives)....) ID#187109:
they never had much use for gold.....couldn't eat it.................couldn't burn it..........made for lousy arrows.......................what's the big deal?

And white man killed 'em for it............hmmmmmmm... ponder this.....and spill worms from the can....


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 03:59
Dabchick (Weds and Thurs Gold and Silver Lease Rates) ID#258195:
Copyright © 1998 Dabchick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Here are the Lease Rates for Weds 07 Oct calculated from data published in the Financial Times yesterday.
GOLD------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
Gold Lease Rate-0.60---------------1.52-------------1.58-----------------1.87
( Change ) ----- ( - 0.48 ) -------- ( - 0.21 ) ------- ( - 0.20 ) ------------ ( - 0.08 )

SILVER----------1- month--------3- month-------6- month----------12- month
Silver Lend Rate--3.20--------------2.20--------------1.70-----------------1.50
Silver Lease Rate-2.21--------------3.11--------------3.46-----------------3.41
( Change ) ------ ( 0.00 ) -------- ( + 0.10 ) ------ ( 0.00 ) ----------- ( 0.00 )
Here are the Lease Rates for Thurs 08 Oct calculated from data published in the Financial Times this morning.
GOLD------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
Gold Lease Rate-0.60---------------1.53-------------1.60-----------------1.87
( Change ) ----- ( 0.00 ) -------- ( + 0.01 ) ------- ( + 0.02 ) ------------ ( 0.00 )

SILVER----------1- month--------3- month-------6- month----------12- month
Silver Lend Rate--3.45--------------2.50--------------1.80-----------------1.50
Silver Lease Rate-1.96--------------2.81--------------3.36-----------------3.41
( Change ) ------ ( - 0.25 ) -------- ( - 0.30 ) ------ ( - 0.10 ) ----------- ( 0.00 )
The lines labelled ( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day's figures.
MGLR and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild .

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 03:56
EB (you been smokin'.......) ID#187109:
too much THC...
uh huh.

go gold uh uh..... GO PADRES!!

John D. - Say a little thanks to your Jeans Genes for me. He did call a nice bottom in Yenno......a spectacular bottom......yesso he swimming in buckos right now Perhaps he can buy Ben a new collar or something...........Platinum with diamond studs......just a thought : )

APH - tis time to take notice o' them grainos....still long the Oats? Perhaps we can make a few bucks.

Stu-stu-studio - Sell them pumps to whoever is buyin 'em.....makes sense to me ( ? )

SILVER - I can see you at $4.50......and then $4.00..........Just followin' trends..............everyone pull out yer rulers ( eh Nick? ) and draw yer can see it too...............don't deny it. Don't worry 'bout the funnymental picture.........this is purely technical. ( reminds me ) ...............ANYONE SEE DJ LATELY....OR HIS CHANNELS A.P.B. CALLING ALL CARS...

GOLD - ( like I said ) ...........305±........anything else is a pipe dream........... ( right now ) ........ ( the straight edge thingy again ) .........Prove-Me-Wrong. Didn't John D. sell his DD Remember....he's da one wit dat fancy GET stuff..........

now....lets see if I can post this just ONCE ONCE ONCE ONCE......... ( skip ) ........ ( skip ) ......... ( skip ) .... snooze........zzzzzzzz....... ( I can't really sleep for the last heart is still thumping from this currency thingy ) ........what a RUSH! Like bettin' the ponies.......¡ohmy!

.....charts don't lie.....eventually ;- )

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 03:44
sharefin (Envy) ID#284255:
I reckon Dow to under 1500
But you'll have to wait a while yet ( :- ) ) )

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 03:07
Auric (From The Financial Times) ID#257312:

Three good articles on the reasons for the
dollar's decline and possible consequences.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 02:58
mozel (@Fear of Gold) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The Apaches were in the neighborhood intimidating the peasants last night. THUMPER, THUMPER, THUMPER. So low the house was shaking. In MORE CIVILIZED days positioning a device over someone's dwelling at night to disturb the occupants out of a sound sleep would have been actionable as a trespass. Nowadays, there is one set of Goons at one end of town forcing me not to put a little satellite receiver in the yard or even a sign and another set of Goons stomping around the heavens.

The point is the System that is supposed to abolish fear itself perpetuates itself by fear and creates FEAR, intentionally. There is not anybody who has read this far who is not in fear of the IRS. There is not one gunowner who does not have in the back of his mind from time to time that he may be terrorized by BATF. There is not one businessman who is not intimidated by the alphebeters.

The jackass, Yankee, Socialist Supreme Court Jusitice Oliver Wendell Holmes penned that Taxes are the price we pay for civilization. I wish he were alive today to have an Apache fly up his butt. And that he might marry a FemiNazi.

I can tell you this, if you got 'em, smoke 'em. Those little NicoNazi ordinances are pretty toothless. Restaurant help is not really trained like the gut shooting uniformed Goons that enforce the theive's civilization on us. They mostly just look at you as if you had farted, and I promptly do my best to fit circumstances to their facial expression.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 02:48
THC__A (@Earl, Re: Trillion/newsletters) ID#367411:
Hi Earl!

Alright, no more posts of recommendations.....

But I think it may well be a good contrary sign when someone who recommends a stock at $4, $3, $2, $1 and then sells at $0.25 finally throws in the towel ( dealing the final blow to his follers ) . Capitulation at rock bottom.......

I feel sorry for those that bought earlier, but I think it makes for interesting speculation at 25c. Yes, it is risky, but I think the risk/reward ratio is better than it's been for a while.

Good luck,


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 02:18
mozel (@Schultz @OpenLoop@T1 @mole) ID#153110:
Thank you for your posts which made statements that I wish I had penned.

@mole I am so fretted over thievin' Commie Socialist Nazi bastards running the con of sharing and caring that the strength required for outreach to the innocent misguided is beyond me at the moment.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 02:16
Leland (John Crudele -- How Soaring Treasuries, Sinking Dollar Score One-Two Punch) ID#316193:

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 02:07
contrarian (10 million dollar club) ID#203236:
my broker says there is now no market for $us/Yent transactions as banks refuse to quote rates in this volatilty. How many moe banks and fin institutions will go to the wall now?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 02:03
Envy (Market Crash) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Would you guys stop saying the market is going to crash, you're making me drool all over the keyboard, and I'd hate to get my hopes up and then have it not happen *grin*. Seriously though - looking at the prices on some of these options, I'd absolutely hate to be the one who had to cover them. Hope the banks weren't the ones writing all these damn contracts, if so, and the market tanks, they're going to be hating life, bridge and window jump'n all over the place, and I'm not trying to be funny. I'm betting there are a lot of institutions out there seriously crushed by the action already that we don't even know about. Isn't the market closed on Monday ? I seem to remember it was a holiday or something, hard to say. I'm tired of trying to guess day-to-day what this thing is going to do, I'm just going to hold on to my shorts and wait for the graph to go vertical. If it does, it does - if it don't, it don't. If it DOES, I think 7000 is a good bounce, but it doesn't make a good bottom, try 6000, or 4000. This market has been over-bought for so long, people don't know how to place a value on stocks anymore. That's why I think we're headed down, simply because everyone has been so optimistic that P/E's have gotten entirely fantastic and brokers are operating in a dream-like state of mind, reality has to come home eventually. I predict we will get to a point when people, before making a stock purchase, will close their eyes and think to themselves What am I willing to pay for this, regardless of what everyone else does ?, and that'll be the bottom. If the market were to tank, I wouldn't want to be holding any Equities, including gold. Actually, I wouldn't want to be holding anything that starts with an E for fear it would get slammed in sympathy. Hell, I wouldn't want to be holding anything that starts with Bonds, Cash, Dollars, Equities, etc, I'd skip the alphabet all the way up to Gold before I started buying. *grin*.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 02:03
Frustrated (FWIW...Trillion Resources...) ID#298259:
Be careful when newsletter writers quote others as recommending stocks. In Adrian Day's most recent newsletter...Oct 1998...he has placed a SELL on Trillion Resources with the comment... Mali sale fails; needs cash. I myself don't follow the stock. See everyone at market to bed.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 02:01
Elroy (Greenstone Gold Crashes !!!) ID#230198:
Anybody now what happened to GRE today?...ouch!

Regards Elroy,

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 01:54
Earl (THC_A:) ID#227238:
I'm afraid that all you have done by floggin' that little bastard is to turn all potential buyers of Trillibum Res. into active short sellers. The load time here is extraordinarily long and you are persisting in wasting bandwidth with pages of unmitigated crap. Take it elsewhere willya?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 01:42
EJ (ravenfire - chart thx to Ralph Steadman & Hunter S. Thompson) ID#45173:
Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 01:38
EJ (Shadowfax -- read my mind. The tide is moving out. Fast or slow? I dunno. ) ID#45173:
@all, Thx & G'Nite.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 01:37
tolerant1 (Schultz...Mozel..others..yes you...Hmmmmmmmmmmm...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...) ID#31868:
we are those who seek to provide a moments peace...under the Willow less...Namaste'

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 01:35
THC__A (Trillion Resources) ID#367411:
Copyright © 1998 THC__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Web Site:

Blanchard Write-up:

Adrian Day

Out Of The Park
If only the great Casey had as many swings at-bat as Trillion Resources — the
home-run king might have been spared the indignity of striking out.

But what makes this junior mining company such an exciting play is that they’ve
already scored a few base hits. Now it appears they may have hit a home run with one
project...and there are at least four more sluggers coming up to bat.

As mining and exploration goes, Trillion ( TLNOF.Nasdaq ) has focused its attention
on the African continents and has projects in six different countries. From
southern Africa including Zimbabwe, Botswana and Mozambique to the Congo
( formerly Zaire ) in the central region to western Africa’s Ivory Coast and
can get dizzy trying to keep track of all the gold, nickel, copper and diamond
projects this company has in progress.

While having so many widely varied products is a long-term benefit for Trillion, it
has been difficult for even professional mining analysts to add up the value of the
company’s many interests. The potential this offers is obvious when you consider
that, even in today’s temporarily depressed market, the sum total of Trillion’s
established projects imply a value far higher than the company’s current market

This means that — even if the gold or mining share markets don’t improve at all —
Trillion investors could reap generous profits when just the current value of the
company’s projects is recognized by the market.

Profiting From Project Focus

The good news is that Trillion’s management team ( which I consider to be among
the best in the industry ) , after spending its first six years establishing itself
throughout Africa is now employing a strategy that should finally unlock the full
value of this company’s many ventures.

First, the company in now concentrating management and financial resources on
its core high-potential gold exploration projects in Zimbabwe. Second, virtually all
of its other projects will be operated through joint ventures with other companies,
allowing Trillion to advance the projects with little distraction and, most
importantly, with other people’s money.

To give you an idea of the tremendous degree of leverage this provides, consider
that over the next 12 months Trillion will have approximately US$15 million of
exploration work done on its projects mostly at the expense of other companies.

That’s enormous free value that you get with Trillion. But just as important, it
permits Trillion to focus its financial resources ( currently C$21.0 million in cash
and liquid securities ) on developing and acquiring projects in its core area of
Zimbabwe, where its recent acquisition of the Indarama Mine represents a single
asset that, all alone, more than justifies the company’s current share price.

Multiplying Gold Assets

Trillion has 28 targets being worked on in Zimbabwe, which is basically the
epicenter of the company’s operations.

Here’s the line-up in Zimbabwe: Three acquisition projects, two producing gold
mines, two advanced gold prospects under option, seven gold targets identified for
initial drill programs over the next 12 months, one diamond prospect, 13 early
stage gold exploration prospects and several acquisition projects under evaluation.
This is all in addition to the company’s currently active Jena mine, which is
already producing gold at about 20,000 ounces of gold annually.

Trillion’s strategy has been to take small-scale gold producers in highly
prospective regions and subject the surrounding area to modern exploration
techniques. The best indicator for gold is gold itself, which means that a small,
inefficient, high-grade gold mine has a decent chance to be surrounded by other
deposits which can be expanded into a larger more efficient mining operation that
can become a huge cash cow..

Here’s the kicker: This strategy has just paid off for Trillion. In spades.

In 1996, Trillion purchased a 20 percent interest in the Indarama Project in central
Zimbabwe for US$3 million, with an option to acquire the remaining 80 percent by
November 1998 for an additional US$21.5 million. Management believed that the
drill-indicated resource of about 500,000 ounces of gold at Indarama could be
greatly expanded with additional exploration.

They were right. The company has just announced that, after about one year of
exploration work, it has outlined a resource in excess of 1.33 million Indarama, and has exercised its option to purchase the remaining interest
in the project.

As I noted earlier, I think that Trillion’s management team is among the best in the
business. You can get a feel for how good they are by the fact that they exercised
their option for Indarama 14 months ahead of time, and negotiated the price down
from $21.5 million to $16.5 million. I expect that Trillion’s work at Indarama quickly
outlined the potential for much higher gold reserves than they’ve so far announced,
and management wanted to lock up the property while they could still get it at a
discount, and get to work on it quickly.

In other words, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Indarama grow, and grow
significantly, as exploration continues over the next year.

With the mine and mill facilities already on site, management has already
announced an increase in gold production at Indarama from the current 15,000
ounces to 30,000 ounces a year. That alone will significantly elevate the
company’s rank among junior gold producers.

But Trillion believes that the project will justify a much larger operation to a
minimum 80,000-ounce per year range. At that level, gold production at Indarama
alone will more than justify Trillion’s current share price.

Free With Any Purchase

Trillion has the operational and financial experience to upgrade the facilities at
Indarama, so I have little doubt that future production here will place a floor on the
company’s share price near current levels.

Which gives you, essentially, a continent-full of exceptional exploration and
development projects essentially for free. Importantly, each of these projects has
the very real potential to multiply Trillion’s price. Let’s review just some of the
more exciting ones...

World-Class Nickel Reserves

Trillion has a 15 percent working interest in the huge Biankouma-Touba laterite
nickel project in the Ivory Coast. This project includes four near-surface deposits,
containing a total inferred resource of 290 million tons, grading 1.48 percent nickel
and 0.11 percent cobalt.

What makes the deal even better is that Trillion’s JV partner is mining giant
Falconbridge, which just announced a US$15 million exploration budget for the
Biankouma-Touba 1997-98 field program. Big news regarding the project’s
pre-feasibility study is expected early next year, and I expect this to be a
short-term trigger that could lift the stock quickly.

But if you have patience to wait long term — let’s say 12 to 18 months, if you
consider that to be long term — this nickel project alone could see Trillion jump
50-100 percent.

And Copper Too...

Here’s another freebie. This spring, Trillion and 50/50 partner Melkior Resources
pulled quite a coup by snapping up — from under the noses of dozens of other
companies — a huge copper/cobalt property in the Democratic Republic of Congo
( formerly Zaire ) . This vast, 2,800 square kilometer property encompasses 12
known copper/cobalt deposits, and sits strategically on the prolific Congo/Zambia
Copper Belt between the two famous projects of Tenke Mining and American
Mineral Fields.

Trillion and Melkior have already completed a comprehensive airborne
magnetic-radiometric geophysical survey over the property, partly to confirm
information from DRC’s state mining company, Gecamines. According to
Gecamines, the property has already yielded more than 52 million tonnes grading
6 percent copper, and boasts additional reserves of 58 million tonnes grading 2.59
percent copper and 0.33 percent cobalt.

Obtaining this project was quite a coup. As the rebels in resource-rich Zaire began
to tilt the conflict in their favor earlier this year, the base camp of the revolutionary
government took on a circus atmosphere as dozens upon dozens of mining
companies flocked in to curry favor. Many were trying to get the revolutionary
government of Laurent Kabila to validate their established deals with the old
regime, but most were looking to grab some of the fabulously rich deposits still up
for grabs.

In my opinion, Trillion, with its vast experience and contacts in Africa, had already
secured one of the best projects available. They were able to get the agreement
ratified by the new government when it assumed power. Any mining company in
the world would kill for this project.

Right now, Trillion and Melkior have the right to immediately develop any one of
the deposits. They opened an office in Lubumbashi, the largest city in the region,
and are currently evaluating deposits to determine which one they should select.
The DRC is not without political risk, of course, and as was recommended in a
brief discussion of Trillion in the July edition of the Gold Newsletter, this play may
take some time. But it could unquestionably yield huge returns.

Home Run Potential Across The Continent

In addition to its solid and growing gold production, and the exploration projects
mentioned above, Trillion has a number of other projects with extraordinary upside
potential. Two of these stand out as among the best in the world:

1 ) Diamonds in Elephant Country. Trillion is participating in a 50/50 joint venture
exploring for diamondiferous kimberlite pipes in southwestern Zimbabwe, and has
already seen some encouraging results. Diamond exploration is typically a high
risk/very high potential undertaking, but in this case it’s low risk/very high
potential, because the exploration program isn’t costing Trillion a cent.

The company recently announced that is has discovered a new kimberlite pipe on
its Sansukwe property and has another 13 targets to complete testing on.

A single economic diamond deposit can add more than a billion dollars in value to
a company’s bottom line, and early results on Trillion’s highly prospective ground
are encouraging. Keep an eye on this wildcard.

2 ) Gold In Mali. Trillion has a net 25.5 percent interest in the Segala Gold Project
located in Mali. The present global geological resource calculation shows 15.4
million tonnes at an average grade of 2.75 grams per tonne for contained gold at
1,366,000 ounces.

Segala is immediately North of the 1.5 million ounce Tabakoto project of Nevsun
Resources and within 30 miles of the large Sadiola project of Anglo American and
Iamgold. The whole region is considered highly prospective and is attracting the
attention of major multinational gold mining companies.

Exceptional Financial And Management Resources

Trillion’s cash and investment portfolio ( currently around C$15 million and its
financing capabilities provide it with the resources to implement its long-term

The company’s equity interests include a stake in Consolidated African Mining
Corporation ( the fourth largest mining house in South Africa, controlling JCI ) ; and
holdings in various of their joint venture partners.

Why are these liquid assets so important? In the wake of the Bre-X inspired
setback in gold stocks, investors will focus on companies with gold production, a
track record, and cash in the treasury.

Just as important are management resources, and it is here that Trillion truly
shines, with a senior management team boasting more than 125 years of
experience. Key figures are: president Jens Hansen ( an engineer and
geophysicist with over 30 years experience ) ; chairman Ron Netolitzky ( a geologist
famed for several important discoveries, including the SNIP.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 01:34
ravenfire (Japan's bank recapitalisation not enough) ID#333126:

btw, EJ, what period is that graph you showed from? What *is* it?

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 01:22
Schultz (Mozel from your lips to God's ear) ID#288349:
Copyright © 1998 Schultz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thank you for your eloquent posting. I grow weary of the oft repeated disclaimer Of course no one wishes for a crash which is so often used as a preface to postings at this site.

Those who support the current system noisily shout down anyone or anything who would threaten their dreams of a Shangra-La existence living off of some pitiful socialized pension at the foot of their lord and master.

These same people whine that a crash would destroy everything and leave nothing but misery and ruin in it's wake. How dare anyone celebrate such an event!

They have no understanding that what many hope for is not destruction but a shot at something we can someday all be proud of.

The greatest threat to our existence is not that we will be banished from the welfare trough, but total indifference to the long lost idea of laissez-faire government acting as caretaker and trusting it's populace enough to make freedom it's primary cornerstone.

The government that cannot trust it's populace must rule by force and threat since it has long ago ceased to fulfill it's true mission which is to educate it's citizen's to use their freedoms responsibly and shun those who seek to create a separate social class of our leaders.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 01:21
EJ (I shall now demonstrate the correlation among the gold/DOW ratio, systemic failure, & hot showers) ID#45173:
For my next act, I shall climb to a platform atop a 30 foot ladder and dive into a damp washcloth.

To prove my very important point, please refer to the following CHART that shows a distinct HEAD AND SHOULDERS pattern with CONDITIONER and a rare CIGAR uptic that indicates, conclusively, that the DOW will CRASH tomorrow*.

Thank yah.


* If the moonies are in retrograde and have paid their taxes to the Korean government.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 01:17
Open-Loop (@mozel. The System Warm and FUZZY) ID#65118:
Copyright © 1998 Open-Loop/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
In discussing the up and coming market crash with friends I get the distinct impression that everybody believes the powers that be would
never let that happen. The masses truely believe that all is well and that they are being watched over for thier own good. Most do not have
any problem giving up personal freedom for a more secure society. They
are only concerned about themselves, thier yuppie houses that they can
barely afford and that the BMW needs a SHOWER. The system is doomed to failure and few see it.
I argue almost daily with my Father who is 77, WWII vet and retired tire
worker. He is making more money with Social Security and a pension than
he made in any year while he was working. He insists that a nuclear
terrorist would never happen. The system just won't allow it.
This kind of attitude is absolutly everywhere I turn.
When we paid off our home, We were ridiculed by many of our friends
for making such a foolish move. They asked why? I replied that I did not
want to be a slave to it. Now I am just a slave to those property
taxes that still irritate the hell out of me. They simply did not see it!

I enjoy your posts because you are one of the few real Americans that
I have come across these days. Not to worry, the system will fail.

Regards, O.L.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 01:11
Shadowfax (Larry Woods (Tech Review)....good speel) ID#290281:
Copyright © 1998 Shadowfax/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Nasty day for the bulls, but as Yoggi so eloquently put it, it ain't over until it's over. A few thoughts that might be useful in plotting strategy for the coming week or two
Bull markets need several things to sustain them, the three most important for this observer being growth of money flows into the markets, stable or falling interest rates, and above all else, earnings growth.
Big Bang ( part one ) , on April 1, 1998, provided a massive add-on to the money flows coming into our markets, as the Japanese savers stripped their banks and walked the dough to the local American bank branch. That money flowed into our markets as a river after a dam break. While initially it was an add-on, over the last few months, it acted as a replacement, as the flow of funds to mutual funds declined by half on a year-over-year basis. Now, the big R word has raised its ugly head in mutual fund land, and the Japanese money has peaked. Worse still, as of this morning, those unfortunate Japanese savers are staring at a staggering 50% currency-plus-stock price decline, and they've only been here for a few months. Think of it. Eight years of falling native stock markets ( no chance to make money there ) , lousy 0.5% interest rates and now, when he finally has a chance to jump into that gorgeous American ( grass is greener ) market, he immediately gets clobbered.
What happens now? Two things,...the beaten-up Japanese saver retreats, and part two of Big Bang, ( which has been a worry for this bear ) , disappears and is of no concern. In passing, kiss goodbye to the big inflows of funds.
Next, consider rates. Yes, Alan chopped them a tad, but it was not consequential. More importantly, DEBT is the big global problem and the largest debts in the world are called U.S. treasuries. The world is afloat in them and they are starting to return to the roost. We called the U.S. dollar lower months ago, and it is starting to happen. As the Euro kicks in, treasury selling will accelerate ( already moving into gear ) which will pressure the dollar more, and push rates up. Younger market participants are about to learn the meaning of the old expression pushing on a string. You can flood a system with liquidity but if there are few who wish to borrow, or even fewer with the required collateral, no borrowing takes place. Japan is a perfect example,....real estate down 85% means that the former valuable collateral is now close to worthless. Falling currencies also put rates under upward pressure.
In summary, while Alan can diddle with the rates at the short end, the bond vigilantes will dominate the rest of the bond spectrum and a borrowing strike is about to emerge in any event.
Earnings growth has been heading south for three quarters, at least for those of us who manage to read a quarterly or two, rather than relying on the nonsense of the AJC's of this world. It will get much worse. The statistical figures already provide plenty of evidence from which much slower earnings growth can be expected ( GDP, capacity utilization, etc ) . The real crunch relates to the fact that most consumer buying has been based on borrowing and the borrowing has been based on wealth effect ( stocks up ) . As the market falls, American consumers stop borrowing. No borrowing equals no buying. No buying equals an economy heading for the dumpster. Unfortunately, the momentum is now building. Sub prime borrowers and lenders have both tanked ( witness the many corpses floating to the surface of late ) . And Alan was doing his darndest to cut this off in any event. Middle class America is worried ( stocks down, lay-offs increasing ) , and debt is HUGE. Carriage trade types have cashed in plenty of stock ( see capital gains tax explosion ) and are hunkering down for the long winter ahead. In short, the buying is and will continue to dry up, which means the economy will wind down considerably. This is not the stuff of which wondrous earnings rebounds are made. It does provide the ingredients for a meltdown, when the world's last remaining bastion of purchasing, quits buying.
Big picture to me is an inevitable slide from this point onward. But what type of slide,....a slow grind down, or off the edge of the waterfall?
Tomorrow is Friday, and the market has been hit on Friday-Monday combos in the past, especially in its favourite month of October. If today ends badly, the margin calls tomorrow will be big, and the credit managers will be brutal. ( interviewed plenty of them over the last few weeks ) . Could be the trigger. On the other hand, if we limp through the next two weeks without a meltdown, we'll get a decent relief ( phew,...we got through that nasty month again ) rally. For the moment, it makes sense to me to hold about 50% of one's resources in short/put positions and hold back 50% in cash. If the meltdown occurs over the next week or so, money is made. If the relief rally occurs, I suspect it will represent a wondrous last opportunity to whack the lambs in a consequential way.

We live in interesting times, especially this current and coming week.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 01:07
mole (@ Mozel re hot showers) ID#350145:
Let me ask you Mozel: what exactly do you hope or expect will happen if the system fails; and exactly what system are you speaking of, democracy? and where in all of history or any where on earth have you seen the human species behave any better than they do here and now. i am afraid what you do not like is, the human condition. I know i am going to hate myself for starting this.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 01:06
tolerant1 (Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...boys with necks like my waist...wide eyed and ) ID#31868:
ready...Mozel...with all due respect...TALK IS CHEAP...these United States are ALIVE and WELL...Namaste'Our death is a breakfast for an American child to learn grits...

Austin, TX, Newberry, SC, Berea, KY..............

I don't like most Americans, but I hate anything that ain't...American...

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 00:59
DBog (Trillion Resources) ID#267298:
All: Does anyone know if Trillion Resources has a web site ? If so
could you post the URL.



Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 00:45
mozel (@Hot Showers) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Somebody posted earlier that they hoped the System would not fail, that any civilization was better than none at all because they just could not stand living without hot showers. No one can deny the strong appeal of a hot shower, particularly after a long train or bus ride. But, I must say this put me in mind of the apology made for fascism, that, at least among the fascists, the trains ran on time. It also made me reflect that we have been at this place before.

We have nothing to fear but fear itself. - FDR. Indeed, I think we have forgotten that the original purpose of the System was to abolish fear. A means to abolish causes for fear and , ultimately, fear itself is what the phrase socialization of risk describes. In the words of the US Supreme Court, the Social Security program is an undefined, non-contractual insurance scheme. The System encompasses now everything that touches, however remotely, on health and welfare at home, work, and in the government schools. Socialization of risk means moving in the direction of governmental total control of the individual. It means preventing the individual from undertaking unapproved risk for which there has been no underwriting, no research, no official guidelines.

I hate the System. Everytime I have encountered some arbitrary stupidity, I have been told authoritatively that It's the System. I cannot tally how many times I have heard a commonsense proposal for improvement or idea for innovation put down with the comment, The System would never allow that. I could go on in this vein for quite a while. I devoutly hope the System fails.

Be not dismayed. Hot showers are not produced by the system. Society is not the government. The government is not the country. The government is not the economy. None of these identities are true except in TOTALITARIAN times and places. The demise of the System will be reversal of the trend to totalitarianism and I hunger and thirst for it.

I earnestly pray the System fails before it starts sending people to the showers. In fact, systemic failure may be the last, best chance for Freedom on this globe. Gold is Freedom. The paper System is slavery.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 00:38
Squirrel (No wonder Kitco has been slow tonight) ID#280214:
THC__A loaded his book four times in a row.

We understand that newbies make such mistakes - but 4 x 1400 words!!
In the future...
Please be patient enough to wait ten minutes or so for it to post.

Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 00:23
JEW (Lou_Jan) ID#25295:
What if your money was all ready in US$, would gold futures look good. W.B. style of getting into metals.

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