KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 23:58
goldfevr (Gold mining stocks continue to lead gold higher.) ID#432170:
Copyright © 1998 goldfevr All rights reserved
XAU up 5.73% today, and rising 60% in less than 6 wks.
Today's action -- increasing volume with rising share-prices --
adds more fuel to the fire -- more evidence
of the gold bull-market pressure building.
Earlier in the week I suggested that we were witnessing the
last chance to buy gold below $300.00.
( See my re-copied comments, below. )
Today, Thur. Oct. 1, the closing markets in gold mining stocks,
and in gold & gold futures, confirm
the completion of gold's base-building period.
Its backing & filling pattern since late last year...
-- both above & below $300/oz. --
is now a completed base or foundation,
for a new, long-term bull market in gold investments.

Gold will march thru the $300 range, and find itself at $400/oz.,
in perhaps less time than what most could have imagined possible.
--------------------------------------
_____________
from
10/1/98 ( intraday )
XAU & mining shares holding early gains...good-bye gold below $300.

from
9/29/98
Next advance in gold is due now. JSE & XAU both closed near their
highs, on Monday. Since the end of August, there has been a pattern
of surging volume ... in gold stocks, coupled with persistent
appreciation...
Gold is now due to break thru the mythological barrier of
$300/oz., for good.
Last chance to buy it below $300.00 is.....'history'.

from
9/28/98
....gold mining stocks again leading the next advance
in gold, which will take it thru the $300.00 barrier.
XAU's near-term target is 80.

from
9/25/98
Gold's bull market ( is ) at LIFTOFF....The new bull market
chapter in gold is just beginning.

from
9/5/98
Sept. 3rd & 4th's accelerating share prices in mining stocks
on 3 to 5 times average daily volume, set's the stage...
the fuse is lit.... ( in gold's new bull market )


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 23:49
goldfevr (Gold mining stocks continue to lead gold higher.) ID#432170:
Copyright © 1998 goldfevr All rights reserved
XAU up 5.73% today, and rising 60% in less than 6 wks.
Today's action -- increasing volume with rising share-prices --
adds more fuel to the fire -- more evidence
of the gold bull-market pressure building.
Earlier in the week I suggested that we were witnessing the
last chance to buy gold below $300.00.
( See my re-copied comments, below. )
Today, Thur. Oct. 1, the closing markets in gold mining stocks,
and in gold & gold futures, confirm
the completion of gold's base-building period.
Its backing & filling pattern since late last year...
-- both above & below $300/oz. --
is now a completed base or foundation,
for a new, long-term bull market in gold investments.

Gold will march thru the $300 range, and find itself at $400/oz.,
in perhaps less time than what most could have imagined possible.
--------------------------------------
_____________
from
10/1/98 ( intraday )
XAU & mining shares holding early gains...good-bye gold below $300.

from
9/29/98
Next advance in gold is due now. JSE & XAU both closed near their
highs, on Monday. Since the end of August, there has been a pattern
of surging volume ... in gold stocks, coupled with persistent
appreciation...
Gold is now due to break thru the mythological barrier of
$300/oz., for good.
Last chance to buy it below $300.00 is.....'history'.

from
9/28/98
....gold mining stocks again leading the next advance
in gold, which will take it thru the $300.00 barrier.
XAU's near-term target is 80.

from
9/25/98
Gold's bull market ( is ) at LIFTOFF....The new bull market
chapter in gold is just beginning.

from
9/5/98
Sept. 3rd & 4th's accelerating share prices in mining stocks
on 3 to 5 times average daily volume, set's the stage...
the fuse is lit.... ( in gold's new bull market )


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 23:47
arden (cyanide and such) ID#257344:
Copyright © 1998 arden/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mike, I am not quite sure where this discussion on cyanide started but let me add a bit. I am deadly scared of the stuff. I have purchased and used many tons of it and have been told that only a few grains under your fingernail can kill you! You die by cardiac arrest so I have been taught. I have a particular sensitive nose for it for some reason. I remember going into the mill office in Homestake's Lead, S.D. operation and telling the chief metallurgist there that I sure could smell the cyanide. He went ballistic, because they had state of the art equipment to detect any trace of hydrogencyanide gas. I guess my nose was better than the equipment.

As I understand the evolution of gold recovery, the very first processes used chlorine gas in about the late 1890's or so. Chlorine is a very good lixivant ( don't you love that word ) for gold. However iron compounds interfere with the process.

Not long after the advent of the chlorine process, Henry Dow succeeded in processing brine water in Michigan and providing a cheap source for bromine ( ever hear of Dow Chemical? ) which was a much faster solvent for gold than chlorine. The early Dow Chemical Company had a thriving business going providing gold operations but they were soon in competition with German interests who tried to undercut their prices.

This was about the time the cyanide process was introduced. My books are vague on the origins. It is possible it was discovered in many different places, but the actual development could have been almost anywhere. Certainly New Zealand and South Africa are probable locations.

About the time of World War 1, the cyanide process became in vogue. Partly because of the lack of cheap German bromine due to the war, and most likely because of better chemistry.

Cyanide is used univerally in the world gold business. There have been efforts to use other compounds such as ammonium thiosulfate and thiourea which also can dissolve gold ( much less onerous than aqua regia ) . I have never experimented with the ammonium compound, but I did research the use of thiourea. I actually purchased some of it from a US chemical supplier for test work after hearing great stories about its usage in a plant in the USSR and elsewhere. Well, the package came to me in a triple protected container with absorbing vermiculite particals between each layer of packing material. Why? Because the US Government has classified this compound as a carcinogen! Great! Try to permit a plant with that chemical! Cyanide is still the best. I am not sure if I am more scared of it or Grizzly Bears. One just kills you, the other kills you and eats you!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 23:36
mozel (@The Church of the Moon Landing Fraud) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
So far in response to the issued challenge I have heard:
I believe because we have an advanced civilization.
I believe because Government Employees told me so.
I believe because I don't believe in conspiracies or government secrets.
I believe because the Moon Walkers also told us they were buzzed by Alien Spacecraft.
and My Personal Favorite ( from A RocketMan )
I believe because my company makes weather satellites.

I visited the Main Sanctuary of the Faithful over at NASA and, of course, NASA has heard that there are disbelievers. The only thing of interest I found was a NASA statement that the astronaut suits were subjected to thermal vacuum tests at 250+ and - F. I guess this is where the idea of the thermal vacuum got started maybe.

They did go back, SDRer. Apollo 14 is my favorite mission. The lander was presented as being on the moon for thirty-three hours and there was E. ( xtra ) V. ( ehicular ) A. ( ctivity ) , as they call it, of over nine hours without interruption. Wow, they didn't do this by halves, did they ?

Looked at the moon. Bright. Even so far away and through the atmosphere, it reflects a lot of light. It looks like a hell of a bright place from here. The Moon Walkers sure got a lot of good contrast in the photos from there though. Filters and stuff, no doubt.

But, it's a darn good thing they put one of those little backpacks on the camera. I mean, there it is generating heat in its insulated radiation shielding case in a perfect insulating vacuum. You could approximate that one at home. Wrap your battery powered device in foil and put it in the thermos, while running, close the top tight and come back in a few hours to see how hot its little self is. It would be hotter on the Moon.

I was hoping someone would post something like: NASA calculated the caloric load of received heat from the sun at X and internal heat from equipment at Y and human beings at Z calories per hour. The actual caloric load per source per hour during the flight was A,B,C. The caloric load during the Moon Walk was calculated at Xx. The actual was Yy. XXX gallons of water absorbed the caloric load during flight and YYY in the backpacks during E.V.A. The craft's coolant water was at a temperature of A at lift off and at Z on landing.

I know more detail of the Last Supper than I do of the life support science behind the Moon Walk ( Fraud ) .

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 23:25
MiloTrdr (@Sharefin(like your charts, the 'last' final straw to invest in color printer.)) ID#350358:
Copyright © 1998 MiloTrdr/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thank's for sharing your charts in the format of choice.

All: Growing up in a small town, being rather conservative ( financially speaking ) without alot of 'formal' economics training, I've never been in debt ( except during big inflation times ... 70's ) and my gut just didn't like or understand the idea of borrowing your way to riches. Have watched friends credit card balances paid at the minimum so there's more money for the monthly BILL to the investment plan. It just can't keep going, but it has kept going for a LONG time. I thought the d**n DOW was overpriced at 7600!

Bought gold @ spot 277 to 288 ( not because 'it can't go lower than this!' ) but I was d**ned comfortable to OWN it here.

I'll speculate with you fellows and gals with my dry powder as it does what it does, and have had fun with NEM as of late.

Anyway, found you guys AFTER purchases. Talking gold to my boomer friends doesn't lead to long conversations. People are used to not understanding what makes a stock go up, they just always DO!!!

G & P to you all!
Namaste'
Milo

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 23:14
bulldog (advice) ID#78136:
There appears to be an opportunity to make some money
on the short side of equities. Any advice on shorting
the market, or individual stocks, not gold. I have
been buying physical, but I think there is a good
likelihood for gain in riding the coming down
market. I haven't done this before so would
appreciate some advice.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 23:09
MoReGoLd (@WHOA... READ THIS --- Japan going into depression, possible the Japanese Government was insolvent) ID#348286:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Downward spiral grips Japan

By Tony Boyd, Tokyo

Japan has delivered a new shock to the global economy with the release of an alarming business conditions survey that economists say shows the country on the brink of a depression.

The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey showed a deterioration in business conditions in the September quarter and the prospect of worsening corporate finances, rising inventories, rising unemployment and downward revisions in capital spending plans.

This is basically the day of reckoning for Japan, said Mr Cameron Umetsu, senior strategist at Warburg Dillon Read in Tokyo.

Mr Andrew Shipley, chief economist at Schroders, said: You could make an argument that Japan is sliding into depression.

The grim Tankan survey – combined with the 237-point fall on Wall Street's Dow Jones Average and heightened worries about the financial system's stability – knocked the benchmark Nikkei 225 sharemarket index down 209 points, or 1.5 per cent, to 13,197.

Earlier the market had fallen by as much as 388 points, or 2.9 per cent.

The fall followed a big drop on Wednesday, taking the Tokyo market down 4.5 per cent in just two sessions.

Investors heavily sold banks stocks for the second day yesterday and targeted heavily geared stocks, particularly trading companies.

It is now painfully clear to most market experts that if the banks were forced to dispose of, or reserve against, a high fixed portion of their overall bad and problematic loans, and were forced to mark their securities portfolios to market, one would be hard pressed to identify a major bank with positive capital, said Mr James Fiorillo, banking analyst at ING Barings.

Both domestic and foreign fund managers are being advised to steer clear or sell all risk-related assets, buy Japanese government bonds and hedge the Japanese yen against the US dollar.

Mr Umetsu said that despite the devastation in the Japanese economy evident in the Tankan survey, the Government had still not responded adequately. The scariest thing, though, is that it still does not look as though we have reached that threshold point where the sense of crisis is finally feeding through and prompting a bullish policy response, he said.

Japan's Prime Minister, Mr Keizo Obuchi, has promised to increase fiscal spending by ¥10 trillion ( $125 billion ) but Japan's output gap is closer to ¥40 trillion or 8 per cent of GDP. Public works account for 10 per cent of Japan's GDP so economic recovery is dependent upon a sustained private sector recovery – which is not envisioned in the Tankan survey.

The closely watched manufacturing diffusion index in the Tankan slumped from minus 38 in June to minus 51 in September, worse than the consensus market forecast of minus 43. The sentiment among small manufacturers was worse, with their diffusion index falling from minus 49 in June to minus 57 in September.

Japan's economic growth has been stagnant since the bubble economy burst in 1990. It entered its worst recession since World War II in April last year.

Mr Shipley said a case could be made that Japan was now moving into a depression.

A depression occurs when the supply curve is completely flat and even as prices rise companies are not willing to produce more and output gets stuck at a level below potential output, he said.

Since 1992 Japan has promised ¥70 trillion in fiscal stimulus packages with only one year of strong economic growth in 1996, but that year's GDP was boosted by the construction boom that followed the Kobe earthquake.

Massive fiscal spending has created financial problems for the country's prefectural governments and raised fears about the central government's finances, which are being reviewed for a possible downgrade by ratings agency Moody's Investors Service. Although Japan is the world's biggest creditor nation with $US212 billion ( $357 billion ) in foreign reserves, economists have begun to raise doubts about the solvency of the Government.

I think on top of the private banks problems the public debt overhang is quite serious but it is not a subject of discussion yet, Mr Susumu Kato, chief economist of Barclays Capital.

Mr Kato said it was possible the Japanese Government was insolvent, which, if it was true, would pose a threat to the global financial system.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 23:09
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Copyright © 1998 Eldorado/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You all who are adamant about holding metals stocks through the 'scenario' should be aware that you had BETTER be good at getting out of them at an opportune time! When the 'fit hits the shan', NOBODY will be willing to take your expensive paper off your hands and it WILL become what it really is; PAPER! People will be more apt to be having their minds on SURVIVAL, than in acquiring 'stocks' that they just lost their life savings on!!! I don't think these paricular folks will be willing to buy at the top again anytime soon! ANYTHING of non-survival/tradeable-value! Best be buying the physical, digging a hole under the 'rose bush', and burying it.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 23:05
Gianni Dioro (JTF - Good Post) ID#384350:
You wrote, the derivatives situation threatens a liquidity crisis of biblical proportions.

They provoked HIM to anger with their inventions: and a plague brake in upon them.--Ps 106:29- 31

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 23:04
arden (a thought) ID#257344:
Jim Bob - there is one place for you to look for maximum leverage in a gold stock. I suggest that you go to your second favorite site, Steve Kaplan, and click on the obvious banner. Read the CEO message and then send him an email. The rest is up to you.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 23:04
EZ Believer (Silverbaron....Glad you took in in the right spirit.) ID#173262:
Copyright © 1998 EZ Believer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Just a little good humor jab for someone who watches these markets
twenty hours a day. One thing that has always bothered me in 17
years of serious investing is the reliance on technical analysis. Jeil's
charts based on past events pointed to PM's declining with the overall
market. How could they, when they were beat up to near historical
lows. The major decline had already taken place, and I'm sure you
have noticed the PM's have moved opposite the overall market.

We are certainly not out of the woods yet, but things are looking promising. Moving in now doesn't involve much opportunity cost
because most of the PM's are just starting to rumble. Furthermore,
they could move a little lower again if the war on gold is intensified
to promote confidence in the faltering world financial markets.

This is why we must not think too short term. Many of the better juniors
are still priced like call options with no expiration date. Looking forward
to reading some of your picks.

EZ

PS Even though I have been pedal to the medal since August some
of my picks are lingering in spite of a decent market. Even though
RANGY has severly lagged the SA's I own a bunch cheap and think
it will have it's day. Golden Knight Resources GKRVF has also under-
performed. The good news is there are many good companies available
at super bargain prices. See you at the top!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 23:00
Speed (Goldtek) ID#29048:
Here is one site for RANGY. http://www.geocities.com/~polarbear47/rangy.htm

Vronsky has some good info on his board

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:49
tolerant1 (Jim Bob, Namaste' gulp to ya from Long Island...I have two suggestions that are) ID#31868:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Canadian...OROP is partners with Pan American Silver in some very nice properties in South America...extremely under priced in my opinon...

TNX is an exploration company in Africa...if it hits big and I think they have been proving up excellent results it is my contention that they are Hunting in Elephant country and could sky-rocket in a large move up...The press release materials will fill in many of the blanks...

I own both and they are penny stocks...but to gamble on these two in my opinion is an excellent shot at making large money for small outlay...

There are several other good companies...and others here can tell you about those...

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:46
Caper (JTF) ID#300202:
Tks. Ur views r always balanced & subsequesntly appreciated.

Secret Fan.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:45
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Steve in TO -- If one is going to play the CONfidence game to the 'marks', one must ALWAYS talk the proper CON line! I.E., NOTHING CAN GO WRONG, GO WRONG, GOoooo Wrooooooonnnnnnggggggg..........

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:39
MoReGoLd (@More directionless wishy washy comments from the Mainstream Press) ID#348286:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Canadian gold stocks climb as bullion edges higher

 TORONTO, Oct 1 ( Reuters ) - Canadian gold stocks continued to climb on Thursday as nervous investors rushed to hold gold bullion as a safe haven against falling equity markets and a softer U.S. dollar.
  Gold and precious minerals stocks had gained an average 4.2 percent on the Toronto Stock Exchange, Canada's most important stock market, by late afternoon on Thursday, helping to sustain a 62-percent rally during the past month.
  The uncertain direction of the U.S. dollar, the recent safe haven of choice for skittish investors, once again boosted confidence in gold. Gold bullion touched a high of $301.10 an ounce on Thursday before profit-taking pushed it back to $299.60 an ounce.
  The U.S currency fell this week after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, prompting a flow of cash out of U.S.-dollar denominated securities.
  Sour international equity markets also prompted buying of gold.
  In North America, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 187.44 points to 7655.18 in late afternoon trading, while the benchmark TSE 300 index fell 147.62 to 5466.50 points.
  The softness we have had in the U.S. dollar is a main change of events over the last month and the stock market is in such disarray that we're getting a bit of an uptick in gold as a counter to it, said Manford Mallory, analyst with Research Capital Corp. in Toronto.
  Firmer bullion prices have helped to offset a miserable summer for gold producers and investors alike.
  Gold, a traditional hedge against international crises, had not benefited from months of financial turmoil in Asia and Russia despite fears the contagion could sweep through Latin American and eventually hit the U.S. economy.
  Mallory said he expected Canadian gold stocks could continue to benefit from uncertainty in equity markets, though he said it would be difficult to sustain bullion much above the psychologically important $300-an-ounce level.
  Mid-sized gold producers, such as Kinross Gold Corp. and TVX Gold Inc. , were the big winners among Canadian gold companies. Gold and precious minerals account for 5 percent of the TSE 300.
  Toronto-based gold producer Kinross rose C$0.54 to C$5.15 a share, or 11.7 percent, while TVX climbed C$0.34 to C$4.36 a share, or 8.5 percent.
  Some analysts, however, warned the current bullishness toward gold might be premature. Canada's gold stock index has only gained about 4 percent since the beginning of the year and remains 40 percent lower than its 1997 high.
  ( $1 $1.55 Canadian )
 

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:37
pdeep (JTF) ID#174103:
The only problem with your scenario wrt to gold is we could wake up tomorrow and find that a couple of hedge funds are in liquidation phase, buying up their short positions in gold. Waiting until this happens to invest in the yellow could be somewhat counterproductive, as you might be buying it at a significant price premium to that now existing.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:37
pdeep (JTF) ID#174103:
The only problem with your scenario wrt to gold is we could wake up tomorrow and find that a couple of hedge funds are in liquidation phase, buying up their short positions in gold. Waiting until this happens to invest in the yellow could be somewhat counterproductive, as you might be buying it at a significant price premium to that now existing.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:32
Steve in TO (Ravenfire - Re: Japan will try to disprove 2.5% . . . ) ID#209265:
Copyright © 1998 Steve in TO/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It's no wonder the IMF is such a mess. Camdessus doesn't even know what's going on within his own agency. The article you linked to quotes Mr. C as stating that the IMF expects a 2.5% contraction in Japan.

Just yesterday the Financial Times published an article quoting one of the IMF's own economists as predicting at least a 4.5% contraction in Japan. Other people have predicted at least a 3% contraction. Either Camdessus is out to lunch or he's trying to mislead people.

BTW, we're now seeing the chaos Ian McAvity predicted once the Nikkei went below 14,000. Many banks, which had included stock holdings in their reserves, now have a negative net worth. This has dried up lending, and you'll see the effects ripple throughout the JApanese economy, with business failures among companies in other sectors.

- Steve

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:31
JTF (Thoughts about what is happening -- a bit of 1929, a bit of 1987) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: Is JP right that we are deflating -- yes, but it is more complex than simple deflation, IMHO.

Here is what I think is happening in the US ( other countries a separate topic ) :

The treasury trend clearly shows a deflationary trend as JP notes. Commodity prices could still be dropping rather than bottoming. And, if more of the world goes into a depression you can rest assured prices of imported goods, and importable labor will drop some more!

AG knows he is caught in this deflationary spiral whether he likes it or not. All he can do is devalue the dollar -- 'not too quickly' or 'not too slowly' Tall order, as in reality he probably doesn't really know who fast the dollar must come down.

The beauty of the currenct scenario is that the WJC situation is keeping the baby boomers from investing in the markets, among other things, thus giving foreign investors an incentive to invest in their own countries, instead of the US. In 1925 the scenario was very similar in one sense, since many European countries were deep into a depression, and desperately needed cash. To do so, they enticed the US FED to lower rates with the subsequent painful events that followed. But now -- the WJC situation prevents AG's expansion of the money supply from ballooning the equities markets, and presto! - equity starts flowing to foreign countries where they are needed.

Also, by inflating the US dollar at this point, AG may also be figuring that he is insulating us from a future depression, since he is expanding the money supply now, rather than after a recession or worse is evident.

IF AG pulls this off, the inflationary effect of expanding the US money supply will exactly cancel the deflationary effect of market forces outside the US. HA! Quite a juggling act.

This is the ideal situation. In reality, the path AG has to take is fraught with minefields, the odds heavily against him ( and us ) .

First, as Grant of the Interest Rate Observer notes, our monetary credit/debt/expansion method of stimulating the economy progressively weakens it, so that each time the FED does this, the stimulus is less effective. So, nearly 70 years from the great depession, the margin of safety must be very narrow.

Secondly, the derivatives situation threatens a liquidity crisis of biblical proportions.

Thirdly, financial shocks from Japan + China, South America, or Europe threaten to disrupt the orderly process that AG wants.

So, AG may be brilliant as a FED chairman, but he would need to be nearly omnipotent to pull this off. Highly unlikely. I think he is human, despite the hype.

So -- my conclusion is that we are most likely to be buffeted alternately by inflationary and deflationary trends for some time to come, until the current debt implosion/deflationary period in the world is over. World derivatives trades winding down to nothing, and worldwide equity markets much lower than they are now.

Then and only then will gold equity investments be safe. Until then we must be very alert to ride the highly unpredictable gold bug Tsunami, or bail out and buy physical gold.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:31
Jim Bob ((let's get ready to rumble!)) ID#249395:
Copyright © 1998 Jim Bob/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Since we've all lost loads since Feb. '96, I would appreciate gold
stock ideas ( and reasons for ) to help engineer the best recovery
possible, which means avoiding the dead money dogs.

I had dropped $ 400K by August 31 from May '93. So, I have been
seriously observing this web site for strategies. It's been a great
relief to recover $ 200K in one month and a day as I was in extremis.

However, I would like to compare recovery strategies. I'm about 50%
in Euro-Nevada and Franco-Nevada because they are cash cows. I have
been 35% in South Africans due to the restructuring and the rand drop,
which made the large mines very competitive. And, the balance is in
Stillwater and some juniors. I'm thinking about a little Balaclava -
any comments?

Speaking of some dead money, I have RANGY. Since the value of their
13.9% ownership of DROOY is now 66 cents, one gets the rest of the
company for zero. Isn't Randgold Resources worth something? And what's the status of the Harmony options? Someone said HGMCY needs to go to
$ 10 first!? I'll be lurking.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:30
EZ Believer (The Golden Profit....Van Eck Hard Assets.....You are so correct!) ID#173262:
Copyright © 1998 EZ Believer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Derek Van Eck is one of the biggest chasers of past returns I have ever
seen! He puts Money magazine subscribers to shame. I have follwed
this fund closely for the last two years. The only reason it is called Hard
Assets from the prior Gold and Natural Resources fund is so he could
chase the already run-up REIT's. This fund is the dog of dogs.

When will he move into gold stocks? After the big move in gold!!! When the strong ecomomy dependent hotels and commercial real estate have
tanked!!!!! His reason for the large exposure to RE besides it's PAST
appreciation is a lousy 6% yeald. This at a near 100% occupancy rate.
The slightest blip in the economy will send these securities to the cellar.

When they do move into gold they will buy the seniors because they have produced the best returns, then they wil turn to the mid-tier because they followed the seniors. Last they will buy some juniors after
they have been run-up. If we are lucky and own some of the best performing juniors Derek will provide all the liquidity we need to sell
at the top!!!!

If I sound a little bitter you a right. I have actually invested and put clients in this mega-dog.

Your intuition is right on the money!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:27
nobody (on a secure international phone line somewhere in the pacific) ID#375160:
Copyright © 1998 nobody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Keizo Obuchi: Hello

Robert Rubin: Obuchi-san, Bob Rubin here!

KO: Your Rubiness, how are you?

RR: Not good, I just spent another day preaching my solid growth, low inflation crap to the sheeple! I'm getting really sick of this, it's cutting into my fishing time!

KO: What can I do for Your Rubiness?

RR: Obie, I saw you let the Nikkei slip below 13,000. You can't let that happen again!

KO: I'm so very sorry, but we intervened quickly.

RR: Yes, but you need to pump it still much higher!

KO: We are running out of money, we need to sell Treasuries.

RR: NO! NEVER! We can't give you the money for the Treasuries because we need it for our Hedge Fund Boys and the PPT which is currently buying SPOOs as we speak. Remember, pump on a Friday, we can't let the masses panic over the weekend! Obie, if you want to stay in the club, then INTERVENE MORE!!!! otherwise you're out like Hashie!

KO: But, where will get the funds?

RR: PRINT you idiot! PRINT, PRINT, PRINT like there's no tomorrow! Hell, the sheeple will never know. Didn't you watch the news, we had a budget surplus party and noone used a calculator.

KO: Yes Your Rubiness! You are right, you are always right!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:22
pdeep (World's Smallest Political Quiz) ID#174103:
http://www.self-gov.org/lp-quiz.shtml

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:20
vhale (APH - Where are you?) ID#424424:
Didn't hear from you today...... What's your predictions for tomorrow?
Need advice : )

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:19
ravenfire (news from Hong Kong) ID#333126:
Copyright © 1998 ravenfire/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
economic woes reign their ugly head during China's national day
http://www.scmp.com/news/hk/tophk.idc
( scroll down to the economic woes section )

Malaysia puts currency carrying controls into practice
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/Asia-Template.idc?artid=19981002015643022&top=asia&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2255

Japan will 'try' to disprove forecasts of 2.5% contraction
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/Biz-Template.idc?artid=19981002010556013&top=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=3130


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:15
EJ (tolerant1) ID#45173:
Yessir, I tried that, but the yahoo doodah has some kinda whatnot that redirects the thingy to the whatsis. That's HTML lingo for it's all f*cked up. Oh, well.

A shot of Vodka to you.

A friend I talked out the stock market in May and into buying gold called me tonight to thank me. A great man with two sweat kids and angel for a wife. Now that's satisfying. Think I'll have another shot on that.

-EJ

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:14
sharefin (Why should I be so bearish?) ID#284255:
-
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Charts/Swing.htm

Seems like this 'Ping' is rather close behind the last one.
Check the up/down volumes for this.

Momentum is going beserk.

Price and time is getting extreme.
The oscillators are achieving full cycles in 1/2 the time.

Advance/decline ratios are saying no bull.
Non confirmations everywhere.

And my swing is rolling over this last top beautifully.
My imaginary puts are doing very well.

And this is just the top of the curve.
If they can't hold it here then it's going lots lower very quickly.

Watch out below.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:13
jumpstart (bmg any news out there? 32days 3 1/16 to 6 5/8 not bad.) ID#254239:
Any news on takeovers?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:12
Jupiter (Golden Constant) ID#252207:
Indeed Sheller is a deserving soul.

I appreciate your synopsis of The Golden Constant I have been looking high and low for about two years now, with no luck.

I think perhaps some people are learning gold is maybe a good thing in a deflationary cycle, contrary to the popular mantra that gold is a better inflation hedge.

Most people tend to forget that the 1930's were a boom time for gold mining companies, while much of the rest of the economy languished.


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:11
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Copyright © 1998 Eldorado/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
pdeep -- It's all about usury, debt, credit, and the need to create ever and ever bigger piles of ever faster moving paper to be able to repay that debt. 'Course, it can never do more than pay on old debt while ever having to take out new and bigger debt to do it. The day eventually must come when the 'buck' stops, as debt servicing becomes toooooo big a part of the circle. Just let a crack then show! Just let that finger put into that crack in the dike not be big enough. Doesn't matter. The bulwark holding back the flood was just made out of dirt anyway. The TIDE ( sic ) will wash it ALL away....... WEEEEeeeeeeeeeee.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:08
muse (Mr. Disney , where is Angly going?) ID#346308:
Would you please, give us your analysis and insight. Thanks in advance.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:04
George (Midas touch) ID#433172:
Copyright © 1998 George/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Bufford- I don't know anuthing about 137 in Montana but I view it as unwise to inflict our process on the enviornment if it actually is harmful. They have destroyed the river life in SA using mercury without remorse. Cyanide solutions are used in electroplating, the boys dumped some in a stream we collected samples in during my school days, ugly.
Our real treasure is the natural enviornment, it is ours in common, it should be protected at any cost.
I have my money invested in gold mining companies ( is Brimstone in Montana? ) but to hell with it if it's destructive. I can live without the gold but not without nature.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:03
EJ (Envy) ID#45173:
The Nikkei was in the black there for a minute. The forces of good and evil battle in the night. The South Korea market is up. But in the low 100's? That's not a stock market. That's a yard sale. I'll be buying into it as soon as it looks like it's bottomed, and as soon as it's clear I won't lose my profits in currency exchange values when the dollar implodes.

South Korea Seoul Composite ^KS11 9:59PM 306.08 +0.44 +0.14%

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:01
Mike Stewart (crazytimes) ID#270253:
Don't expect people like Prechter or Armstrong to get it right precisely! They have had the direction and general timing down better than most of us. When the bear ends and prices rise for real, they don't ring a bell.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:01
pdeep (The Illusion) ID#174103:
Gollum said it well when he pointed out that the liquidity of the past few years was anything but real ( that is, backed by tangible assets ) . It has been a paper illusion.

What I find somewhat disconcerting is the idea that the implosion can be stopped by fiddling with interest rates. As if that will somehow treat the overinvestment debt flu plaguing the world's economy. The reason I find it annoying is that the implication is that the Fed makes the economy run, not the productive work done by anyone here in the US, or anywhere else in the world.

Grumble.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 22:00
tolerant1 (EJ, Namaste' and a gulp and puff to ya from the Island that is Long...you just need) ID#31868:
to type some more words which wrap on this first line...otherwise people must click on Full Text Mode in order to click on the hyperlinks...

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:57
zeke (cyanide) ID#25257:
All this talk about cyanide makes me think of Cyano-cobolamine, which makes me run and jump. What ever happened to good 'ol Aqua Regia for dissolving the precious?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:57
EJ (Oh, screw it. Cut and paste it is.) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thursday October 1 4:30 PM EDT

Stock Market Problems Boost Gold

By CLIFF EDWARDS AP Business Writer

Gold futures rose sharply Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rising above $300 an ounce for the first time
in months, amid concerns the world's economic woes have seriously curtailed the chances to profit on equities markets.

On other markets, the price of energy futures collapsed despite several refinery outages that will curtail production, while
pork futures also fell sharply.

Gold futures jumped as the Dow Jones industrial average tumbled a second day on fears corporate earnings in coming
weeks will show serious weakness because of the economic crisis that began in Asia and has spread to Russia and Latin
America.

Market participants also said there was persistent talk that several large U.S. hedge funds were on the brink of collapse,
which would add further instability to prices.

Gold appears to have shaken off a yearlong reluctance among investors to use it as a traditional ``safe haven'' tool.
Metals tend to hold their value better than other investments during times of economic and political instability, but
investors have been reluctant to buy gold as equities markets provided better returns.

Gold instead has drifted in a range for weeks, rising on the fortunes of the U.S. dollar against other major foreign
currencies. A dollar-denominated currency, gold is more likely to be sold by foreign investors so they can lock in profits
when the dollar rises.

Gold for December delivery rose $3.10 to $302.10 an ounce, its highest in three months.

Energy futures tumbled on the New York Mercantile Exchange as concerns about weak global demand outweighed
continued refinery outages in the U.S. Gulf region as a result of Hurricane Georges.

Amid fears that the U.S. economy will follow other nations into recession, investors looked with consternation on
inventory data that showed storage remains nearly 7 percent higher than a year ago despite storms and attempts by world
oil producers to slash daily production.

Even though anecdotal reports confirm that members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have come
very close to 100 percent compliance with output cuts, market participants expressed consternation that inventories
remain well above last year's levels.

November crude fell 71 cents to $15.43 cents a gallon; November unleaded gasoline fell 1.24 cents to 45.94 cents a
gallon; November heating oil fell 1.84 cents to 41.56 cents a gallon; November natural gas fell 1.9 cents to $2.414 for
each 1,000 cubic feet.

Pork futures fell sharply on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange amid renewed concerns about the large U.S. hog herd.

Market participants are worried that producers' efforts in the past year to increase their herds amid anticipation of pent-up
Asian demand has backfired. With the Asian economy showing no sign of recovery and continuing global weakness,
investors believe weak world demand could continue well into next year.

Most-active December lean hogs fell .88 cent, or 2.2 percent, to 39.52 cents a pound; February pork bellies tumbled
2.83 cents, or 6.6 percent, to 44.37 cents a pound.

and...

Thursday October 1, 8:08 pm Eastern Time

Canadian gold stocks climb as bullion
edges higher

By Paul Simao

TORONTO, Oct 1 ( Reuters ) - Canadian gold stocks continued to climb
on Thursday as nervous investors rushed to hold gold bullion as a safe
haven against falling equity markets and a softer U.S. dollar.

Gold and precious minerals stocks had gained an average 4.2 percent on the Toronto Stock Exchange, Canada's most
important stock market, by late afternoon on Thursday, helping to sustain a 62-percent rally during the past month.

The uncertain direction of the U.S. dollar, the recent safe haven of choice for skittish investors, once again boosted
confidence in gold. Gold bullion touched a high of $301.10 an ounce on Thursday before profit-taking pushed it back
to $299.60 an ounce.

The U.S currency fell this week after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, prompting a flow
of cash out of U.S.-dollar denominated securities.

Sour international equity markets also prompted buying of gold.

In North America, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 187.44 points to 7655.18 in late afternoon trading,
while the benchmark TSE 300 index fell 147.62 to 5466.50 points.

``The softness we have had in the U.S. dollar is a main change of events over the last month and the stock market is
in such disarray that we're getting a bit of an uptick in gold as a counter to it,'' said Manford Mallory, analyst with
Research Capital Corp. in Toronto.

Firmer bullion prices have helped to offset a miserable summer for gold producers and investors alike.

Gold, a traditional hedge against international crises, had not benefited from months of financial turmoil in Asia and
Russia despite fears the contagion could sweep through Latin American and eventually hit the U.S. economy.

Mallory said he expected Canadian gold stocks could continue to benefit from uncertainty in equity markets, though
he said it would be difficult to sustain bullion much above the psychologically important $300-an-ounce level.

Mid-sized gold producers, such as Kinross Gold Corp. ( Toronto:K.TO - news ) and TVX Gold Inc.
( Toronto:TVX.TO - news ) , were the big winners among Canadian gold companies. Gold and precious minerals
account for 5 percent of the TSE 300.

Toronto-based gold producer Kinross rose C$0.54 to C$5.15 a share, or 11.7 percent, while TVX climbed C$0.34
to C$4.36 a share, or 8.5 percent.

Some analysts, however, warned the current bullishness toward gold might be premature. Canada's gold stock index
has only gained about 4 percent since the beginning of the year and remains 40 percent lower than its 1997 high.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:57
THE GOLDEN PROPHET (HIGHRISE--) ID#372262:
Be careful with Van Eck Hard Assets--last time I checked they were 40% in Reits and 16% in cash!! WHEN WILL THEY START BUTIN' GOLD STOCKS

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:53
EJ (Er, let's try that again) ID#45173:
The first URL is

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/financial/story.html?s=v/ap/19981001/bs/commodities_14.html

The second is

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981001/bo5.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:52
tolerant1 (O'tay...so what have we learned...Federal anything is criminal...and when you use) ID#31868:
gold and silver as money the sbags that are the Federal anythings can't control your lives...uh huh...gold and silver let you decide what to do with your money and how to raise your family...


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:49
EJ (Ah, so there is a relationship between the imploding equity asset bubble and gold) ID#45173:
Until quite recently, you'd have to be a goldbug to believe such a thing.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/financial/story.html?s=v/ap/19981001/bs/commodities_14.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981001/bo5.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:45
aurator (Empty archives.......humbug) ID#257148:
-
By Jove

A gentleman too.

Sheller shall have it!

As to the golden constant, I have read it, borrowed from Wellington Public library here about 10 years ago. I've never seen a copy in a bookshop, and I scour bookshops!

I have had a disaster with my archives and have lost everything since 7 February 1998, I am paranoid because they're out to get me, othewise I think I had more info than this at hand....

Here are the primary tables contained in his work

Purchasing Power of Silver & Gold in Inflationary cf Deflationary Times
INFLATIONARY
Years CMdty Price % Silver% Gold %
1623-1658 51 -34 -34
1675-1695 27 -13 -21
1702-1723 25 -18 -22
1752-1776 27 -22 -21
1792-1813 92 -33 -27
1897-1920 305 -61 -67
1933-1979 2149 241 27


DEFLATIONARY
Years Price % Silver % Gold %
1658-1669 -21 27 42
1813-1851 -51 69 70
1873-1896 -45 -6 82
1920-1933 -69 32 251
While the study is not without limitations, it does show that you're crazy to hold gold during inflation, and crazy not to hold it during deflation.


Four pronounced price deflations took place in the four centuries recorded, with the three most severe occurring since 1800. In all four price recessions operational wealth in the form of gold appreciated handsomely. When one sees that just by holding gold for 13 years from 1920 to 1933 operational wealth would have increased 2 1/2 times, one realizes that gold can be a valuable hedge in deflation, however poor in inflation.


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:42
Jack (Pete) ID#252127:

Regulating the hedge funds would destroy the efficiency
of the FEDS henchmen.
These guys make the Cosa Nostra look like Minor League.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:41
Envy (@EJ) ID#219363:
The night is young and autumn still weaves her subtle spells, tis the season of illusions.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:33
Jupiter (Slow Boats etc.) ID#252207:
Aurator,

You are a scholar and a gentleman. To tell the truth, I actually own a copy of Extraordinary Popoular Delusions. Maybe it would be better if you use it for a prize for another deserving soul. I am looking for another book though, The Golden Constant The English and American Experience,1560-1976 by Roy Jastram. I can be reached at jupiter@golden-nevada.net

Thanks!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:33
Jack () ID#252127:

The cyanide method of extracting gold from oxide ores was first developed by a Noo Zeelander of Maiori extraction well before that land was invaded by greedy investment bankers from Great Britan.
The name of the developer is in a Noo Zeeland secret file.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:27
Mike Sheller (aurator) ID#347447:
The solubility of gold in cyanide solutions was first observed by Scheele in 1783, and again
by Bagraton in 1843. The first commercial cyanide process was developed by J.S.
MacArthur, R.W. Forrest and W. Forest in 1887.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:26
6pak (Russian Settlement of defaulted treasury bonds & $10 billion in currency forward contracts(U.S $?) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
RUSSIAN-WESTERN BANK RELATIONS BECOME
FROSTY
A Moscow arbitration court on 30 September froze the assets of
U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers held in Russian banks. On
24 September, Lehman Brothers had a British court freeze the
assets of Uneximbank and Inkombank held in British banks, which
reportedly owe them $87 million and $25.9 million, respectively,
for unfulfilled forward contracts ( agreements to buy a certain
amount of currency at a future date, see RFE/RL Newsline, 24
September 1998 ) . On 28 September, Lehman obtained an
additional court order freezing the British bank accounts of
SBS-Agro bank, which it claims owes it $15 million. Bloomberg
reported on 30 September that the agenda of Russian government
talks with domestic and foreign holders of defaulted treasury
bonds has been expanded to include discussion of the settlement
of more than $10 billion in currency forward contracts. JAC
http://www.rferl.org/newsline/1-rus.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:22
crazytimes (Princeton Economics Institute....) ID#344326:
Is VERY Bullish on Gold. What a joke! It was a month ago they had an article Next leg down on Precious Metals? Martin Armstrong changes his forcasts so much he can always come up with one that's right. Although to be fair to him, he did call the top in the Stock Market long before it happened.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:17
EJ (Japan spending a fortune tonight to keep the Nikkei over 13,000) ID#45173:
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 9:13PM 13053.27 -143.85 -1.09%

But just bearly.

-EJ

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:14
Pete (ALL-C-SPAN JUDICIARY HEARINGS-WATCH & LISTEN IF INTERESTED IN SUCH.) ID#222231:
http://www.c-span.org/watch/extra.htm

Especially note comments by Independent Barry Sanders. No doubt he is a socialist but he's got his head on right.

Our illustrious bankers of the world, elite monied interests and FRB make the MAFIA look like choir boys. They can posture their policy of TBTF rationaly and with such conviction that even I'm beginning to believe them.

Enjoy,

Pete

PS: Does anyone really believe that Hedge Funds will be regulated and reigned in. Do'nt bet on it.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:13
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
BUFFORD -- Just another reason to hold the PYHSICAL! It's already out of the ground and the cyanide ban is bad news for ANY paper 'metals'. The bad news for the paper will only be even better news for the out-of-the-ground physical.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:11
aurator (By Jove!!) ID#257148:
Jupiter

Awesome answer. Please either post your email address or email me c/o chas cdevoto@abts.net , include your physical address and a copy of extra pops will be on a slow boat heavenwards. ( airmail is v expensive from Finis terra down under )





Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 21:09
Silverbaron (EZ Believer) ID#288295:
Copyright © 1998 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

OK, OK, rub it in..... ( ;^ ) )

Hey EZ, my friend, I might be cautious, but I ain't stupid...the London spot at $300 was what I was waiting for. I try to always have the trend with me, and if you'll check out Bill Buckler's Long-term US$ gold P&F chart, you'll see that the breakout was JUST NOW confirmed.

I was only THINKING ABOUT the HM puts, based on Jeil's work - I never bought any, or really gave it any serious consideration. And it's not 5% mining stocks anymore - I just added a bunch of SGOLY and HMGCY today. But I'll be patient waiting on silver stocks- right now silver doesn't look too good in comparison to gold.

I hope you've made a bundle - congrats for getting there afore me.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:53
BUFFORD (@Anyone*******thoughts on Iniative 137 Montana cyanide ban) ID#253246:
Closing in on the November 1 vote on the whether to ban cyanide in Montana and it has been difficult to get a read on this. CAU stands to be hurt the most if this passes however their share price did go back to a half a buck today. If this would pass this is one trend that won't be a pm investors friend.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:53
Voyeur Professor (zeke on your 18:34 post to me.) ID#231101:

If no insult was intended, then I take no offence. Thanks for the clarification and good luck with your high hopes for gold.

Silverbaron,

I just noticed your question for me regarding my discussion of real interest rates, but I can't seem to call your post up again. Apologies. I'll try to respond later.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:51
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Silverbaron -- It's amazing how long a market can look 'toppy'. Stocks looked toppy for many for years! It may be time for silver to see some correction, but at this time, the chart ain't 'broke' yet.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:50
EZ Believer (Silverbarron....Bet you are thrilled with your 5% PM's and HM puts......) ID#173262:


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:45
HighRise (Gold / Silver) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Gold ( CMX )
Dec
302.30
303.40
302.30
303.20
+1.10
10/1/98
17:17
303.20
302.80
Silver ( CMX )
Dec
529.50
531.00
528.00
531.00
+1.50
10/1/98
17:22
531.00
530.00

They are probably up or down a couple bucks by now.

HighRise

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:45
Jupiter (Aurator Re: Cyanide process) ID#252207:
Aurator,

The solubility of gold in cyanide solutions was first observed by Scheele in 1783, and again by Bagraton in 1843. The first commercial cyanide process was developed by J.S. MacArthur, R.W. Forrest and W. Forest in 1887.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:43
Donald (Stock market problems boost gold) ID#26793:
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/financial/story.html?s=v/ap/19981001/bs/commodities_14.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:41
Silverbaron (Princeton Economics metals commentary) ID#288295:

Click on Global Markets View ( left menu ) then #4. ( right menu )

Gold VERY BULLISH; everything else looks toppy or worse.

http://www.peicommerce.com/HMEFRAME.HTM

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:39
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Is everybody out there getting their situations 'crisis' proof? If not, you best shake a leg! Only the very first 'ripples' of the tsunami have yet been seen.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:25
Donald (Fed says credit crunch is in the making ) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981001/bmb.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:22
PH in LA (Quotation, question and a REALISTIC assignment.) ID#225408:
Copyright © 1998 PH in LA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

...if there was any validity, even a scrap to your post, I'd respond. There isn't so I won't....I'm not an advocate for metals or paper. I'm an advocate for honesty. From the collected works of LGB.


Question: What kind of honest advocate replies only to valid points and refuses to address himself to those that he finds invalid?

Answer: Only one who enjoys arguement for its own sake; not for the sake of truth. Hardly one who would appear to be an advocate for honesty.

REALISTIC: Why don't you do some of your famous research and get to the bottom of this apparent contradiction...if you can tear yourself away from your self-inspired crusade to heap abuse on Farfel and Puetz for a few moments, that is.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:22
TYoung (Buckler...and the answer is....) ID#317193:
I don't know...you got a thought. If you feel like sharing.

Tom

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:21
HighRise (Tantalus Rex (Abby Cohen)) ID#401460:

Can we send your last post to CNBC, seems appropiate.

HighRise

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:19
crazytimes (Latest from Bill Murpy....) ID#344326:
Everything is right on schedule. The bears: aussies, the fed,delation players, still fighting the inevitable. It is a fierce struggle, but the bears will lose.
I will talk about this in my next Midas commentary, but it came out today that the Bank of Italy has $250 million invested in Long Term. The big bank in Luxembourg has $30 million. Lux, says it is all gone. Italy says they will get it all back. This is one big crock. Italy is lying and they probably have gold loan shorts that long term has to cover. watch this one.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:18
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
And then they want to implant everybody with the chip. The chip is named MARC and it'll be overseen with the BEAST computers. No telling what they power the chip with. Couldn't be good if it were to leak though.

The Acronyms actually stand for something, for which my memory currently fails to dredge up, but one can easily get 'Marc-of-the-Beast' out of it. Where have we heard that term before...

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:17
Oak (FYI (HM) Homestake) ID#240241:
per a 13D schedule posted today, August Von Finck currently owns
30,000,000 shares of HM or 14.21%. Per the 13D, he is trying to
acquire 24.99%.

Loving the ride & hope it doesn't end soon, Go HM,BGO,BMG & DROOY!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:10
Tantalus Rex (@stradmaster 19:22) ID#295111:

Let me echo compliments.

GREAT POST!!!!!!! F!ckin AYE MATE!!!!!!!!!

The DOMINO EFFECT IS REAL FOLKS!!!

One hedge fund like LTC collapsing will cause many other dominos to fall.

As of today, I'm finally making money in gold and gold stocks after being on the losing side for such a long time.

Thanks to this forum, I was able to buy a truck load of gold and gold stocks when POG hit 280.

THANKS TO ALL CONTRIBUTORS.

( And I'n not selling either. Will only consider it when POG hits $3,000/oz )

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:07
Mr. Mick (Mybear, thanks for the info..........) ID#345321:
I'm sure Billy Bob Clinton will be the first to volunteer the US citizens for the new chip. IMHO

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:05
Goldteck (RANGY) ID#431200:
I would like to get a few URL on RANGY.Thanks.Goldteck.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:04
HighRise (Japan) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Japan
Nikkei 225
^N225
8:03PM
13087.45
-109.67
-0.83%

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:00
mybear (Regarding yesterday's post about credit cards with integrated circuits in them.) ID#349224:
Copyright © 1998 mybear/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
This post is in response to some of the drivel that was posted yesterday about credit cards with integrated circuits in them, commonly called chip cards or IC cards. I have been a manufacturer of equipment for the production of magnetic stripe cards for 20 years. Here are some facts to read and digest:

1. The credit card manufacturers have been excited for the last 10 years about the prospect of making chip cards. This is very much about value added. When you put holograms, signature panels, fine line printing, IC's, bar codes, optical data panels ( read by laser ) , and other features into a credit card you increase the profits dramatically.

2. IC manufacturers have invested in credit card manufacturing plants in an attempt to broaden their market. There are hundreds of millions of credit cards made each year, maybe more than a billion; I am not sure.

3. A credit card with a microprocessor and memory in it might cost 5-10 times more than one without. Talk about profit! The low cost chip cards are the ones with memory only, similar to a fusible link prom that gets burned each time you make a purchase. The ones with the microprocessors are much more expensive.

4. Europe has opted for the chip card in a big way. This is not so much because of the marketing sizzle ( the marketeers have really sold the sizzle ) , but because the communications infrastructure is not as extensive in Europe as it is in the USA. Here in the USA it is very easy and inexpensive to process on-line transactions over the dial-up phone lines. In Europe such transactions are much more expensive.

5. The advantage of a chip card is that it can easily be used for a decrementing application. That is, you can put $50 or $100 in it, draw it down, refresh it and so on. It can be used as a decrementing card for telephone calls, buying a burger etc. A normal magnetic stripe credit card cannot be used this way, because it would be too easy for a thief to scam. There are secure magnetic stripes, but they have not made inroads, and have in fact had their growth stunted by the lure of chip cards.

6. One claim of the chip card marketeers is that a chip card is secure. Wrong! Once you write your PIN ( secret number ) on the signature panel it is no more secure than a magnetic card.

7. There have also been other successful attacks on chip card security involving using special probes, electron microscopes, power/current probing etc. Nothing is completely secure.

8. One huge barrier to acceptance of chip card is that most or all of the point-of-sale terminals would have to be replaced. This is happening in Europe. Much of the expenses of this changeover in France was subsidized by the government.

9. The bankers in the USA like the on-line transaction system presently in use and cannot yet justify the excessive costs of chip cards. The bankers can exert a great deal of control with the present system. If a card is stolen, it can immediately be deactivated systemwide. This is a huge benefit. A chip card in an off-line network does not share this advantage.

10. One big factor to consider about the advisability of instituting a large chip card system as a replacement or partial replacement for cash is that your anonymity is gone. Big brother can trace your every expenditure. The only reasonable way to ensure the anonymity of the chip card in a decrementing system is to allow cards to be purchased or refreshed anonymously. If we could ask George Orwell if this is likely to happen, he would probably doubt it.

Mybear
mybear@flash.net

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 20:00
Tantalus Rex (Abby Cohen) ID#295111:
Has anybody heard Abby Cohen lately?

Where the F!ck is she! She must be in hiding! Maybe she received a chastity belt made of gold or something.

I WANT TO KNOW WHAT THE HELL SHE IS SAYING ABOUT THE MARKET NOW.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:56
Highhopes (Strad Master's message of 19:22 most important to read) ID#404410:
What a message! Startling, if your source is right!

Highhopes

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:53
zeke (Nervous in Navarra) ID#25257:
I'm so nervous about almost everything, I think I might have bought more gold and silver today. Oh Please! Don't chastise me. I'll believe...I'll believe, in TA--just so it doesn't point downward.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:53
Silverbaron (rhody @ silver mining stocks) ID#288295:

I agree...I'm holding back some of my reserves for silver and oil stocks, but not buying either now. I'll be watching the gold/silver ratio for a turn downward ( maybe around Gold/Silver =60 ) before I buy silver mining stocks again. I sold out most of my positions in silver mining stocks a while back ) However, I did notice that PAASF and FSR were up today, despite silver's decline. I dunno why. Silver does look sick now, and ended the day on a sour note.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:52
Mr. Mick (Looking for Mina Proana (Mexican silver mine).............) ID#345321:
Anyone know about this company? What is their sign on the stock exchange?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:52
Tantalus Rex (SPIN MEISTERS & GOLD) ID#295111:

Still very little talk about gold's gains. This is very good news indeed!!! Not all baby boomers who've invested in mutual funds are THAT stupid. SO, IN A NICE WAY, SPIN MEISTERS ARE SHAFTING THEMSELVES!!! I love it.

The smarter baby boomers will begin to realize that they are getting screwed big time and will move out of Mutual funds and into gold since gold stocks have made TREMENDOUS gains in a very short time.


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:50
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
XAU/Spot Ratio = .264. The 233 day moving average is .247.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:49
Bill Buckler (Clinton's 1998 ) ID#256381:
Mr Clinton announced a budget surplus for fiscal 1998 of $US 70 Billion. First surplus since 1969.

Here are the numbers from the U.S. Treasury's debt to the penny page. The latest data is for Sept. 29, 1998. One day to go in fiscal 1998.

09/29/98 $5,523,785,740,880

09/30/97 $5,413,146,011,397

That's a debt increase of $110,639,728,483 ( according to my calculator ) .

The Social Security surplus is a wonderful thing, isn't it? Especially since it consists entirely of U.S. Treasury IOUs.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:48
Strad Master (MIKE, TOLERANT, & ELDO.) ID#250297:
All is well at this end although I have no where near enough time to do what I want. I rarely get to post to the afternoon shift at Kitco anymore, so I miss chatting with all youse guys. In fact, I ought to be off practicing right now. Concerts coming up...
As to unprecedented - let's put it this way...it is unprecedented in recent memory. How about that? That J.P. Morgan did the same during the 27 crash only makes the parallel to those days even more startling.
Gotta get to work, but I'll keep checking in....

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:48
plaintalker (PPT) ID#217338:
Once again as a fast falling dow hit 250 down the PPT came in with futures buying programs, it worked but only marginally this time. I wonder how much taxpayer money has been used and lost in the last two days efforts.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:44
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Dow/Gold Ratio = 25.44. The 377 day moving average is 26.47. This is the first day that the Dow/Gold Ratio has been below the 377 M/A since July 29, 1994, when the ratio was 9.87

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:44
MoReGoLd (@From S. Kaplan --- Yeltsin is major Gold Bug ....... ) ID#348286:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
RECESSION
is almost certainly where we are heading over the next several months in the U.S., as the evidence builds gradually but conclusively. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury is lower than the discount rate, 4.90% vs. 5.00%. The stock market has declined moderately, which often precedes a recession. The premium of platinum over gold has dropped from more than 40% in the summer of 1997 to less than 20% currently, which much of the drop occurring in recent weeks. Since platinum is more heavily used as an industrial metal than is gold, an economic contraction tends to depress platinum's price relative to the yellow metal. One important question is the kind of recession that we are likely to experience. In 1974, the economy remained generally strong in the U.S. since commodities were rallying sharply, so the value of farming, energy extraction, and mining output was boosted at the same time that financial assets were collapsing, thus muting the impact on the workplace and keeping unemployment relatively low. In the early 1930s, the financial collapse led to a general economic slowdown and high unemployment. Since commodities are generally at multi-year lows, with gold rising from a historically depressed base, it is possible that the upcoming recession will be primarily financial, causing P/E ratios to contract and pushing down the value of equities without severely impacting the overall health of the economy. One wild card is that U.S. household exposure to the stock market is by far at an all-time high, so that declines in U.S. stock prices will affect more families' wealth than during any previous bear market. It is possible that this could tip the balance toward a more severe than average recession, and may lead to a double- or triple-dip recession in which one or more attempts at recovery are thwarted by the negative wealth effect of individuals' depressed equity valuations. One interesting fact of the current U.S. situation is that the ratio of equities held in retirement funds to non-retirement funds is by far at an all-time high, so most of the impact of the bear market will be on money which was intended for future rather than present consumption. If baby boomers feel substantially less secure about their retirement, they may be induced to work more hours or to retire at a later age, which would presumably have a positive productive effect.

COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities fell moderately on Thursday, while precious metals closed mixed. Gold gained $3.10, with the spot price for the yellow metal closing above $300 per ounce in late trading for the first time since May 22, 1998. Silver dropped 6.5 cents, platinum fell $1.90, and palladium rallied $3.35. The U.S. dollar fell sharply against most major currencies, following its typical historic pattern of following equities lower. Meanwhile, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury touched 4.88%, a historic low, before closing at 4.90%.

On Thursday, Boris Yeltsin came out in favor of the restoration of a gold ruble, a Bolshevik-era system under which the value of the Russian currency is pegged to the amount of gold in state reserves, and not to hard currency reserves. He called on the Central Bank to start working on how to implement this measure.

According to a report released by the World Wide Fund for Nature, one third of the earth's total natural resources were consumed during the years 1970-1995.

According to a survey sponsored by Connecticut-based Phoenix Home Life Mutual Insurance Co., 24% of Americans with retirement funds diverted or reduced their retirement savings in the last three years to make a luxury purchase or take a vacation. According to the same survey, more than 75% of those between the ages of 13 and 21 could not define mutual fund or compound interest. [Presumably no one was asked to define dividend yield, a term some consider obsolete, or bear market, still often confused with the phrase healthy correction, as in the sentence, The Korean stock market has experienced a healthy correction of 87% in U.S. dollars ( 92% if adjusted for inflation ) in the past nine years.]

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:43
Tantalus Rex (XAU TODAY) ID#295111:
Copyright © 1998 Tantalus Rex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
XAU END OF DAY SUMMARY
1998-10-01
ABX-Barrick Gold------CLOSED AT $21.1250 1.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 1.37
ASL-Ashanti Gold-----CLOSED AT $09.5000 0.3750 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.13
BMG-Battle Mountain---CLOSED AT $06.6250 0.5625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.42
CDE-Coeur D'Alene----CLOSED AT $07.4375 0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.01
FCX-Freeport Mc------CLOSED AT $12.0625 0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.07
GGO-Getchell Gold-----CLOSED AT $20.5000 -0.5625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.06
HL-Hecla Mining--------CLOSED AT $05.0000 -0.0625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.01
HM-Homestake Gold---CLOSED AT $12.8125 0.6875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.47
NEM-Newmont Mining-CLOSED AT $26.3750 2.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 1.08
PDG-PlacerDome Gold-CLOSED AT $14.5625 0.7500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.61

XAU CLOSED AT 79.29 4.3

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:42
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
The next 'politically necessary' scenario will be war. For two reasons. Boost commodity prices so economys might still have jobs available, and to detract the sheople from what is happening in the markets. Time to get aboard the physical markets if you haven't already.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:38
rhody (@ Silverbaron: you are buying more silver, and I am increasingly) ID#411440:
nervous about the silver equities that I already own. I do not
like the way silver is acting on the spot market. One month leases
have come down to the level at which the silver carry may reactivate.

I just don't like the feel of this thing. Do you know something
I don't and should I put my right brain to bed and just roll with
logic and fundamentals?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:37
Bill Buckler (IMF? RIP) ID#256381:
Copyright © 1998 Bill Buckler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Let's look at the record. The IMF is supposed to be the world's lender of last resort. They were front and centre during the whole Asian Crisis up to the de-facto Russian DEFAULT at the end of August. Since then, Mr Greenspan started hinting about a US rate cut on Sept. 4 and all but promised one on Sept. 23. The FOMC delivered on Sept. 29.

Throughout September, the chorus was growing: The IMF ( pick one ) blew it, needs to be reformed, needs to be abolished, needs funding, doesn't need funding, etc. What also became dangerously clear as September wore on is the simple fact that the IMF is NOT the lender of last resort and never has been. That is the job of the U.S. Treasury.

A Fed rate cut was looked upon as the universal financial cure-all. Well, sugar pills sometimes work, but this one obviously hasn't. The initial reaction is that Uncle Sugar hasn't made the dose sweet enough. Now, the chorus is: We need more and bigger cuts, and THAT will solve the problem.

Please note, in connection with this chorus, two simple facts. One, we have plummeting U.S. stock markets and plummeting Treasury long-bond yields, a phenomenon unseen in the U.S. since the 1930s. Two, this scenario, with bond yields and stocks racing each other downstairs, is precisely what marked the initial stages of the Japanese meltdown in the early 1990s. And look at Japan ever since - especially now.

Gold is stirring, without doubt. Next week, we have the IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington. Most of the participants will know that these are crucial. The world is no longer looking to the IMF, it is looking straight at the Fed and the Treasury. They issue the world's Reserve Currency, and they control the value of the cash that everyone from Potemkino to Patagonia has stashed under a rock as getaway money.

We have updated the Dow/Nikkei comparison charts and the $A/$US Gold comparison charts at The Privateer website.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:37
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Oops. Should have been if they are not VERY VERY careful. Underline NOT.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:35
Silverbaron (OH NO! The Censors got the Treehouse Elliott Wave Guy's Pages) ID#290456:
Hmmmmmmm.....maybe he shoulda said the Dow was gonna go up. http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Floor/9823/frames.htm

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:34
aurator () ID#250121:
Gee Mike,

Either my reference books are wrong ( always a chance ) or you're just guessing! Your answer reminds me of Hillary

Close, but no cigar.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:34
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Strad -- That about sums it up well enough in my opinion. If they are VERY VERY careful, we're going to hear the word 'oops' VERY VERY loudly!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:33
gagnrad (aurator re prize) ID#43460:
Sorry, no idea at all. I'd suppose though for the sake of guessing that it was Lavosier in 1813?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:33
ERLE (panda and Highhopes,) ID#190411:
Did you see that Newmont Gold closed at 29.00 +3.4375.

...............,,,,......Newmont Mining Cl @26.375 +2.125

Ratio NGC/NEM is 1.0995, not NEM's BS of 1.025.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:32
tolerant1 (Strad Master, Namaste' and a gulp and a puff to ya...I would not doubt any of what) ID#31868:
your friend told you today...after listening to AG and RR one MORE time they are nothing more than common street schills/bookies...no more no less...Were Merrill Lynch or any of the other big houses here to crumble they would throw the higher ups and the brokers off the roof tops in Manhattan and the rest of the country...Martial Law...Schmaritial Law...the pigs would get slaughtered...period...I of course will sit back and watch it all on TV with popcorn and beer...

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:31
Mike Sheller (aurator) ID#347447:
The cyanide process for extraction of gold from ore was discovered by Rodney Blevane, in 1878.


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:31
cherokee (@........the.high.desert.............................) ID#288232:

high rise...

WAR!
hmmmmm.....geeeeeewhizzzzzzzzz....

wonder where i've seen and heard the wardrums of late

i've taken a lot of flack from what i've peceived as being
right around the corner....WAR...good god ya'll.....what is
it good for?.....absolutely nothing......sing it again..........

war IS just around the corner....time will tell......


cherokee!;..watching.the.cricket.from.the.ant.hole......

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:30
gagnrad (Silverbaron, matter of semantics) ID#43460:
Now are you just a fool like the rest of us here or are you a Fool with a capital eff who plans to make triple his money over the next year? The question here is whether a man is just a fool wearing mufti or a Fool wearing Motley. I'm hoping to win my Fool's cap this winter with my gold portfolio. ( I don't suppose Fools wear spurs or I'd say I hope to win them too. )

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:29
Mike Sheller (Strad) ID#347447:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
First of all, how the hell are you? Second, I don't know if unprecedented is the right word. As AG himself pointed out, old J.P. Morgan convened an entourage of bankers during the panic of 1907 and kinda did the same thingie. When he instructed everyone to go into the market and buy stocks, the complaint to him was but we're down to our reserves! Ol' J.P's response was use 'em...that's what they're for.

True, while the erstwhile young Alan Greenspan was a free market objectivist ( thanks be to our Lady of Free Markets, Ayn Rand ) today he finds himself, as Bankah Numbah One, in the same position as ol' J.P. Hey...a man's gotta do what a man's gotta do.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:28
aurator (Glittering Prizes) ID#250121:
Mike Sheller
Not according to my sources. Thank you for playing :- )

BTW previous winners ineligible.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:27
snowbird (Sorry, here is the url) ID#220325:
http://tiger.golden.net/laird/TimeSPX.htm

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:27
MoReGoLd (@glenn) ID#348286:
glenn, I think your wrong, but your a short term trader, go for it..........

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:27
Mole (The Lawyer Cartel) ID#34883:
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?FS=+%3Ch3%3ELawyer+Cartel

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:27
BillD (Come..on Realistic) ID#261295:

You are becomming a bigger PITA than Puetz. At least he is a gentleman.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:25
Silverbaron (gagnrad) ID#290456:

Yup! And I'm one of those fools.....doubled up today on the morning dip, but gonna save the rest of my dollarettes for oil and silver stocks. ( ;^ ) )

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:25
tolerant1 (HighRise, Namaste and a gulp to ya...war huh...I say we take all the politicians kids) ID#31868:
and send them first...then all the mouth piece consultants...we send their kids in the next wave...yup...tired of all this manipulative crap...you bet I am...yup...uh huh...

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:24
snowbird (Money to be made here. This chart PREDICTED EACH of the recent SNP moves!!!) ID#220325:
In the event that it has been overlooked this chart has been posted twice in the last two weeks. Please look it up and verify the dates of the recent major moves and compare the results. Here's hoping it helps someone.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:23
MoReGoLd (@Puetz) ID#348286:
Thanks for your updates. Keeping an eye on this situation very closely.
This market may yet prove you right. Hedge Funds may be the knockout punch........

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:22
Mike Sheller (aurator) ID#347447:
The cyanide process for extraction of gold from ore was discovered by C. Edward Chambertin, in 1901.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:22
Strad Master (Calling All Bears!!!) ID#250297:
Copyright © 1998 Strad Master/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
ALL: I haven't had time to post this before but for those who are concerned that the market may tank due to over-leveraging this story will be of interest. I have a very close friend who is a stock analyist for a small fund ( $100 million or so ) . This little fund was just bought up by Merill-Lynch. On the day the Fed engineered the bailout of Long-Term Capital she happened to come over for a visit and she was telling me how bizarre it was for the Fed to call together heads of these big brokerages at the Fed office in NY. Apparently, it is not only unprecedented but almost illegal insofar as these people are not supposed to be in contact with one another so that insider trading laws don't get violated. What was more disturbing, though, was that she said she had a chance to look over the internal statements of Merill-Lynch and it was her conclusion that Merill is leveraged at a rate of about 97 to 1. If so, it is no wonder the big brokerages were willing to pony up to bail out Long Term Capital. If LTC suddenly had to dump all their holdings into the market it would cause such a spiral of selloff that Merill would soon be under water as well. It was her feeling that if the Market went down another %10 below the recent summer low, Merill would be out of business! As she put it, If the Fed and the brokerages can't stop this selloff soon, we are all going back to living in mud huts. Pretty scary stuff, coming from her. She is a very conservative, generally bullish, long-term investment-oriented professional with no leanings toward gold, doom 'n gloom, astrology, or anly other contrarian viewpoint. Anyway, if she is right, Puetz's crash due to leverage feeding on itself may not be quite so farfetched. Comments?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:18
aurator (Glittering Prizes----) ID#250121:
gangnrad

I shall be happy to forward a paper-back copy of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds to the first poster who correctly advises who/where and when the cyanide process for extracting gold from ore was discovered.


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:12
Realistic (@Puetz) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Are you sure the crash has started?

You confirmed this scenario quite a few times in the past an the market has always turned up.

Are you really really sure?

Date: Mon Oct 27 1997 14:38
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#170235:
The bear market in stocks has been confirmed. DJIA has decisively broken below 7500-7600 support. I'm am now in a maximum bearish position. Greatest crash of all time has started. It's very possible that the big circuit breaker at DJIA -350 will kick in soon. Watch what happens when the bulls get trapped into the market and can't get out.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:10
HighRise (Drudge Report!) ID#401460:

Whoops!

FBI TAPE BOMBSHELL: LEWINSKY OFFERED TRIPP MONEY FOR SILENCE!

I hope Monica received complete immunity.

HighRise

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:08
cherokee (@......looking.forward.....seeing.the.past...) ID#288232:

put in a gtc for 4 dec99 gold calls 390 strike
at 160 or better....did not get filled....
FIRST time the sucker fish did not take
the cheese ball.......he WILL bite friday..

going on for some crude calls too.....the time
is NOW.......imm.....yes......IN MY MIND.....
the cannon has fired the mighty projectile ( s ) ....
the arc of the bomb is traceable with aplomb...

don't be afraid of the lawnmower blade....
cherokee!;..trying.to.be.patient...heading.back.to.tonto.tonight...wooo..


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:08
Tortfeasor (Rich) ID#37463:
Although not a practicing accountant I would have to say that $300.40 is a close about $400.00. If I were an accountant I would ask the question do you want it to be above $400.00? I am satisfied enough that we are on the cusp of a raging bull that I am putting $5,000 of our firm's profit sharing money into gold mutual funds tomorrow over the objection of one of my paper happy co-trustees. He said he would not veto the move but insisted that the records reflect that he voted against it. So we will see if I incur the ire of my fellow co-trustees.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:05
gagnrad (Looks like the Fools are noticing mining stocks today) ID#43460:
http://fool.yahoo.com/fool/evening.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:03
old gold (gold for gas) ID#241261:
can someone tell me that with $2000oz gold, will i have to bring $100 bills to fill my gas tank once?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:02
rich (Gold @ $300.40) ID#411320:
do any of you gold bug think $300.40 constitutes a close above
$300. What do you think gold will do tomorrow morning. I could
have taken some profits, but I think this is a beginning of a
gold bull market...in fact I am betting on it.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:01
gagnrad (Gold Dancer re delusions and crowds) ID#43460:
Here is a url listing 3 volumes of electronic manuscript of Mackay's book, 'memoirs of extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds'. This is available free via project gutenberg, just delete everything after the word gutenberg to get to their main book catalog.

http://www.ul.cs.cmu.edu/gutenberg/authors/m.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 19:00
glenn (gold) ID#429363:
Gold should pull-back overnight and into friday morning. Do not be affraid. BUY IT! I'm looking to buy more at $300.50. We should see $310.0 next week. I'm leaving for vacation tomorrow. The next time I post here I'll be short above $315.00 cause we're going back down after this.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:58
HighRise (Now War?) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

OK, ....here we go, IMHO, Saddam Hussein has a big problem. On NBC, The UN, President George Bush, Kissinger, etc. are calling for backing up our threats with action. It appears that the powers to be are giving Clinton backing for a major strike against Iran. The media is really hyping the need for an Attack, “all that is left is for Clinton to do it”

The UN and the US Secretary of State are threatening Air strikes in Serbia/Kosobosinova ..... where ever.

War will again pull the World out of depression. They have to get oil prices up!

They have to have inflation in fuels or Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Indonesian and others will never survive.

The US can afford higher oil prices if it keeps her out of depression.

They are warming up the F-16s as we speak.

Buy Gold and Oil.
Tomorrow, I move more funds into Van Eck Hard Assets Funds ....... and maybe the Fidelity Contra Fund, it is below 48 today.

HighRise


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:58
Gianni Dioro (Puetz - Your Crash Date Scenario) ID#384350:
Didn't you compare 1929 to 1998 and came up with a 55 day after top crash scenario or was that Prechter?

Anyhow as Prechter has pointed out this Bull market has many features that are double to the 1920's Bull market. So might we see a crash type day around double the 55 days, that is 110 days from July top. I think that would put it around Nov 5. A drop to Oct 97 lows and counter rally should play out before IMO.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:56
Envy (US Market) ID#219363:
Just my opinion - most are expecting the DOW to drop, many think it will go below the recent low, possibly as low as 7000. I tend to agree BUT if the DOW does drop and it drops THROUGH 7000, some people will be seriously afraid and I wouldn't be holding equities unless I had fire-proof gloves. People aren't in a panic, they aren't even really that scared right now, they're just concerned. If that concern does change to fear, I think it'll spiral. People will be more likely to sell this time, because this time it's about real money.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:47
zeke (@Highrise) ID#25257:
No. I'm fairly sure it was Walmart, 'cuz K-Mart had the Greenspam Facial Pooty Paper.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:45
tolerant1 (SteveIS, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...) ID#31868:
and in fact I will drink to your entire last post...gulp...yup...

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:43
JTF (Accelerating Deflation -- logging off.) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
JP: Question for you. If deflation is to continue for some time, how can gold bullion go up? Also, wouldn't you expect commodity price indexes to drop? They seem to be bottoming to me, although the gold bullion trend is far more bullish.

If you are correct, I would conclude that this gold rally will burn itelf out, and commodity prices will drop once more. I find it very hard to guess what is just aroung the corner, so I am reduced to watching for dropping commodity prices, and a possible stock market collapse.

If the dollar continues to drop, eventually we will have a period of rising rates, although it may be temporary, followed by more deflation.

If bigtime inflation returns soon, it will probably be due to a falling dollar.

I think the only thing that is clear is that the markets will have a rocky road ahead -- with future upswings and downswings. We will not have a steady deflationary fall in interest rates. Or steady gold rallies. We goldbugs will have to be nimble so that we do not wipeout in the goldbug Tsunami.

Much tougher than simple inflation, as we are being swept to and fro.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:42
SteveIS (RE: Surplus) ID#280339:
I trying to give the best arguments for buying TBonds which I regard as suicide. Of course there is no surplus. There is only green toilet paper.

Namaste' to all living things excluding Clinton, Clinton defenders and the IMF

BUY GOLD!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:41
HighRise (Zeke) ID#401460:

Nah!, if it were for sale at Walmart the price would be going up. More likely that it is being sold at a K-Mart near you.

Can you believe that it went down today? Somebody needed cash bad. They probably were selling so they could buy NEM.

HighRise

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:41
Puetz (STOCK MARKET CRASH -- UPDATE) ID#226307:
Copyright © 1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
BUY THE RUMOR ( of a Fed easing ) held the DJIA up 2 weeks longer
than what is normal for a Phase-4 upward correction.

Througout Europe and Asia, the Phase-4 rally lasted about 1-week --
which is normal for a crash-pattern. Also, in those countries, the
Phase-4 rally ended on the 1st trading day after a Solar Eclipse. This
is also a pattern that indicates a crash is at hand.

Throughout Europe and Asia, stock markets have already taken out
their pre-September 1 lows. It is only in the United States where the
markets continue to diverge from the rest of the world -- where stocks
are in a free-fall.

The divergence has now stopped -- ever since SELL THE FACT time
( when the Fed actually did lower rates ) . Now the only remaining
obstacles are support at DJIA 7400 and S%P 960. Once these
levels are penetrated to the downside, we will witness the most
ferocious market-crash mankind has ever had to endure.

It looks like the crash to DJIA 3000 has been delayed by a week or
two. Nonetheless, it's coming. I now estimate the height of the crash
will arrive the week of October 12-16.

Stay tuned to Kitco for the play-by-play.

Regards,

Steve_puetz


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:38
Gold Dancer (On the big T- bond rally) ID#430221:
Copyright © 1998 Gold Dancer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I remember reading the book Popular delusions and the Madness of
Crowds some 15 years ago. I have always remembered one thing in this
book that stuck out because it was such an odd thing to happen.

The French currency had been inflated a great deal and bonds were
in the toilet and looked like the end was near. Then for some reason
over the next couple of years bonds rallied almost back to their highs
even as debts increased!!!Much as what is happening in the US today
since 1982 when the US debt build up began and interest rates came
down.

Once French bonds peaked out however, there was a free fall and a
year and a half later they were worthless. So I asked myself how could
this hugh rally have taken place with debts increasing all the time?
Now I know. Faith and the denial of the inevitable. I mean the
Federal Reserve has really done an incredible job of pulling the wool
over everyones eyes and Greespam will be leaving just as the whole
system heads for the toilet. I mean look, people, they actually
pulled this off!!!!! The biggest debtor in the world and our interest
rates are falling!!!!! This is one for the history books!!!!

Thanks, and GO RANGY YOU SORRY EXCUSE FOR A GOLD MINE!!!!

Actually must be some big selling in there. Maybe Something about
a merger coming up or something like that. Probably just technical not
fundamental. Let's hope.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:34
zeke (VP on TA) ID#25257:
Sorry if I offended. I too depend upon TA, and listen closely to people like The Preacher for advice. However, at times--like when a pilot changes from IFR to VFR--one must observe the more obvious and act accordingly.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:33
Spud Master (@SteveIS: Please stop repeating FedGov propaganda!) ID#28586:
Copyright © 1998 Spud Master/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Dammit, THERE IS NO FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SURPLUS!

Go to the US Treasury Public Debt to the Penny! http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

For this fiscal year ( which ended yesterday ) we are $112 BILLION deeper into debt. ( 9/28/98 $5,525 trillion - 9/30/97 $5,413 trillion = $122 billion ) .

US Federal debt just keeps increasing;
the lies we told just keep increasing:

Bill Clinton ( wagging his figer at the camera ) : There is no budget deficit. I did not have deficit spending with that Congress.

The Emperor's New Budget Surplus. Man, baaaaaah, baaaaah, sheeple.

Of course, we now accept any lie as irrelevant, why not believe the lie that budget is balanced! Why not believe that we can float to the stars? Why not believe all is well, all is well?

Spud


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:29
tolerant1 (HighRise, Namaste' gulps and a puff to ya...bookies man...I'm tellin ya...bookies...) ID#31868:
and comparing them to BC...yikes...that's cold...I love it...but that's cold...yup...uh huh...

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:26
zeke (ad lib) ID#25257:
JP, keep it up; excellent reportage. I always look for and enjoy your posts.
HIGHRISE, Meant to tell you: I saw some Rangy Certificates for sale the other day---Walmart has a special...Pooty Paper on a roll.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:25
tolerant1 (SteveIS, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...the US has a surplus...what...huh...when...where) ID#31868:
roll me one out of your bag...budget surplus...nah...you can't believe that...nah

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:23
HighRise (tolerant1) ID#401460:

The AG & RR double talk today was like listening to BC. AG was really treading on the edge of what the real relationship of the Fed is to the private banking system.

He just about came out and said that the Fed and the private banking world are one in the same.

HighRise

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:23
Gold Dancer (Here is what Mac Masters of THE REAPER says:) ID#430221:
Copyright © 1998 Gold Dancer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved


As I've written in previous Reapers, gold needs to close above $300 an
ounce to issue an intermediate buy signal, and above $315-$320 to issue
a major buy signal. Also, as I've previously penned, if I were a global
central banker, and I wanted to kick start the global economy, what I
would do is depreciate ( devalue ) the value of the world's reserve
currency ( the U.S. dollar ) and inflate the price of gold. This would
increase the velocity/turnover of money and encourage borrowing and
spending, exactly what they need presently globally. ( The other
alternative is a war. )

_______________________

This is exactly the way I see it. Gold goes up or the fiat-money-
banking-debt-implosion begins soon. May anyway. But time will tell.
Inflation could come sooner than we think. Gold answeres all
questions of doubt and probabilities.

Thanks, GD

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:21
SteveIS (Gold vs. TBond) ID#280339:
Copyright © 1998 SteveIS/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The world economy is slowing. Greenspan will continue to lower interest rates. The US government has a budget surplus. Commodity prices are falling. Prices of manufactured goods are falling. We are going to have a recession.

These are all good reasons to buy TBonds. So why is gold also rallying?

Both rallies represent a flight to QUALITY. The bond rally is stronger so far. But the QUALITY of long term US government paper is highly suspect.

The price of TBonds will depend on supply and demand.

If the world economy is slowing down then government expenses will rise. Also their revenues will fall. They will have to make up the short fall by selling Bonds. Also banks world wide are in deep trouble. This is obvious when you look at the price of bank stocks. The government will have to sell bonds to finance failing banks. So supply looks to greatly increase in the future.

Demand depends on the value of the investment return. This depends on the value of the dollar. If the dollar falls then the bond payments are worth less. We are in an environment where the $ must fall.

Our trade deficit is increasing. The euro will cause most foreign governments to sell Billions in dollar reserves. The falling stock market will drive dollars out of the US. The continuing lowering of our interest rates lowers the return from US investments. Lower interest rates always hurt a currency.

So we are lookin at a hugh increase in supply of TBonds. We are looking at a large decrease in the value of the payments ( a declining dollar ) . A decreasing value is garanteed to reduce demand. Voila! A BEAR MARKET in Tbonds.

BUY GOLD!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:17
Voyeur Professor (zeke and your not so intimidating ad populum slur.) ID#231101:
Copyright © 1998 Voyeur Professor/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Sir,

I have no idea why you choose to stoop to slinging ad populum, and rather infantile diction at that, slurs, rather than offer a rational and documented analysis of your, apparently, belief that anyone who stoops to measured analysis is a TA ( I have inferred the abbreviation refers to tight asses, repressed, constipated, spoil-sport, commentary that demands empirical evidence rather than hysteria for one's most cherished beliefs ) . If I am wrong in my caution, you should demonstrate that error in an objective and supportable critique. Too much of your sort of howling against ideas you despise or can't understand characterizes the behavior of mob psychology. Many on this site have denounced the sheepish followers of the Dow. We should not forgive in our own behavior what we despise in others. But I won't be drawn into the sort of food fight that you may desire. Enough.

Richard Burke,

I take it that we agree that gold and the Dow are at the crossroads?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:14
tolerant1 (What have we learned...AG and RR are a couple of bookies and they said nothing) ID#31868:
that meant a damn thing today...yap...yap...yap...gold IS money... Clintler is still garbage and Camdesuss...Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...beware the Hound of the Island that is Long...grrrrrrrrrrrrr...

Other than that a lovely day on the Sound...Fall approaches...and the Sec of St. and Def. are still at the wrong party...sheesh...

LOOOOOOOSERS............

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:09
gagnrad (Zeke re RANGY the dysfunctional stepchild and SWC, the star pupil) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
IMHO RANGY may have formed a bottom. If I had any money left, I'd buy some more. As it is I used up all my speculation money on DROOY and SWC so am merely watching from the sidelines.

IMHO SWC has fairly broken 31 and held. They are having a good year. They're still making conservative forward sales but have been getting the numbers right at least. http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981001/zp.html

( Never listen to Gagnrad. He doesn't give investment advice. Standard disclaimer still applies. For the newbies that means you and your lawyer both can kiss my *ss if you think something I say leads you astray. Your investments are your investments and mine are mine. )

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:03
TYoung (Rangy=bad dog with over 4 million harmony options @60 rand....) ID#317193:
If Harmony ever gets to 60 rand or above before 2001...Rangy will really benefit. Of course gold has to get to around $325-35 for that ( a guess ) . Not such bad odds for such a dog.

Tom

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:02
Lurker 777 (5% downside risk!) ID#320226:
For the first time in a long time the Mountie is a better deal than the Phillies!

Phillharmonic: $313.50 per coin and a December 99 310 Put option for each coin $17.10. Total $330.60 ( 100 coins minimum order )

Mountie: $326.70 each with a built in January 2000 310 Put option. ( no minimum )

Buy the Mountie NOW, its cheaper!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:58
MM (Turkey reportedly massing 10,000 troops on Syrian border ) ID#350179:
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/100198/world26_3152.html

Turkey accuses Syria of harboring Turkish Kurdish rebels fighting for autonomy in Turkey's southeast. Relations are also strained by the growing military and diplomatic ties between Turkey and Israel, which Syria claims destabilizes the region.

MY ADJUSTED XAU EXIT TRIGGERS: 70.71 and 92.60

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:56
JP (Deflation is accelerating--Why interest rates will continue to decline) ID#253153:
Copyright © 1998 JP/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Again, the long bond recorded new high's with the yield closing at record low's of 4.87 %. I'm beginning to sound like a broken record. Some of the posters on this forum argue that interest rates will rise as the dollar declines. Since Feb 1998 I have been advocating the idea of a runaway deflationary phase. The long bond has been confirmiing the deflationary phase all along. As deflation deepens and we enter a depression ( in 1999 ) business expansion will come to a complete stop. There will be NO business expansion. If this is true, then the demand for money will collapse and individuals and corporations either will pay off their debts or default. In that environment ( like in Japan ) interest rates will decline substantially from current levels. Remember, the bond bull market started in 1982 when Treasury bonds were paying 15 % . This bull market is about to enter it's final phase. I believe long term interest rates will decline to 2% or less by the end of 1999. Short term rates also will decline probably to 1% or less by the end of 1999.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:53
G-Nutz (Zeke) ID#433143:
KAAAABOOM!!!!! sorry about my cannon I lost my muzzle. hehe btw, hearing the average joe ( 6pack ) talk about gold funs on CNBC. Uh-Oh.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:48
HighRise (AUH20) ID#401460:

RANGY I have a bunch of this dog too, but I will not sell when a stock is down. They will eventually find it when they see the value compared to other mining stocks which have moved already. Therefore, maybe we all should be buying Rangy?

Check out Pegasus up 60% today to $0.09/share and the company is in chapter 11?

I would of answered sooner but my computer couldn't handle 4 frozen Kitco pages/windows at once.

HighRise

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:40
Richard Burke (XAU) ID#411318:
My post re XAU at 1\1/2 hours before closing indicated technicals weakening. XAU did drop a couple of points in total, but rallied back the two points +/- to set a new high for this leg-up at 79.3. This is just over where it got stopped three or four times before. I wondered at the time if gold stock buyers would be happy enough with Dec gold staying in the 292-3 range to buy more stocks - the market tells us they were. It will be interesting to see what gold does overnight. The 79.3 is so close to the old resistance it may just be part of that resistance.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:37
aurator (do ray me far so la te doooooo) ID#250121:
Richard Burke
Thanks!

All
Steve in To earlier reminded us of a Jewish maxim sell Yom Kippur. I believe that one day, ANOTHER, more ancient Jewish Proverb will once more be currency around the world:

With gold in your pocket you are wise, you are handsome, and you sing well too.


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:31
zeke (R. Burke) ID#25257:
Richard,
Which one of your fathers was from Montana?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:26
zeke (et al) ID#25257:
Copyright © 1998 zeke/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Joe Bettipaglia is on CNBC in a few minutes. Bet his lizard shoes need a buff and shine. Don't worry Joe, that Buttaroma gal CNBC is grooming to take over will help you out.
Meanwhile the TA guys on this site are sharpening their pencils and laying straight lines with their see-through rules, saying: Gee, if we get above 305 soon and stay there for a week, we'll call a gold bull rally! Relax fellas, have a Venetian Ice or something. The Gold Bull Lift-Off has already begun--Hope youze got onboard.
Can you believe it?...Two majors up more than 2 points. ( Of course our disfunctional favorite son, namely RANGY, is down again. Bye the bye, HIGHRISE, it was our buddy who plugs SA stocks over NM stocks ( the same one who has his own Gold site ) who introduced RANGY. For some comfort it should be noted that Getchell was down also today--AFTER GAINING ALMOST 6 POINTS IN A WEEK.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:26
Envy (US Market) ID#219363:
Cha-ching! Few hundred points between me and my new sports car. Go bears.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:23
RJ (..... Regarding Advertising… Availability… Demand… and Enthusiasm .....) ID#410215:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Monex has advertised, gold platinum, and silver on a rotating and ongoing basis for many years. CNN Headline News, CNNfn, CNBC, Investors Business Daily, etc. Perhaps some have seen these ads for the first time, but they have been present and continuing since CNN’s inception in 1980.

The term pushing seems to connote some skullduggery. It is a fact that gold and platinum coins are excellent buys right now. I wonder how this morphs from getting the word out about Y2K, perilous equities, and currency woes, and what can be done to protect oneself…… to pushing? The ads are also geared towards physical delivery, which, it seems, is the Holy Grail hereabouts; physical possession of recognizable and readily accepted gold. One would think a round of Hurrahs would be forthcoming from the further protected masses, but perhaps it has been drowned out by the general enthusiasm.

No worries, though, the gold and platinum is flying out the doors - and now physical silver is tight. PH in LA posted on K2 that I have denied the shortage of gold coins. On one occasion, when another poster insisted that there was a shortage, I told all gathered here that I had no problem getting gold coins and could ship many thousands within 48 hours of wired funds. Perhaps PH missed the 3 or 4 posts of mine in the last month which specifically warned all of a 2 week delay in gold coins, and the fact that the problem is at the source; the mints cannot keep up with demand. Platinum seems to be OK for now, but delays are now running 2 weeks for silver coins like the Sliver Maple Leaf. The tightness in overall silver supplies is starting to show.

I think I posted about this shortage last week, and the US Mint’s 1.2 million ounces-o-gold sold so far this year ( normal yearly sales 300K - 400K ounces ) . This was told to me by Phil Diehl, Director of the US Mint, last week at dinner. I posted these comments last week, and maybe a couple days ago. I understand if PH has missed these posts and take zero offense. I have been majorly busy myself, and have had little time to dig through these pages in the last few weeks.

And speaking of busy, I have been remiss in responding to several e-mails to me by some readers of this site. I apologize, but the interest in precious metals is phenomenal and the phones keep ringing, everybody wants gold or platinum or silver NOW. We received over 5000 inquiries last month.

As Monex is well recognized throughout the country, one could view this increase in traffic as a fairly reliable cross section of the country. Not as good as a direct poll, but a decent indicator that the country as a whole has increasing interest in gold. I think this will be received as welcome news to folks here who have suffered much at the paws of a merciless gold bear.

I still think they - the omnipresent THEY responsible for all gold machinations - will whack it once or twice more before the year is out. A reasonable downside target would be $285. I only suspect this is likely for reasons I have stated many times before, so I will do no rehash here.

I was also quite public in my enthusiasm for delivering gold coins into people’s hands for under $300. Delivered some for under $290. That’s delivered cost, including shipping and commissions. I have been a merry little goldbug for the first time in two years but I understand it may be hard for some to recognize my new spots. I wrote here a year ago that I would be just as enthusiastic about the upside in gold as I was in shorting the hell out of it for two years - when the market indicated that this enthusiasm was not misplaced. To be completely honest, I put in some new gold shorts this week with the $285 retracement target I mentioned earlier.

This may seem as if I am talking out of both sides of my mouth, but I have always drawn a sharp distinction twixt trading and delivery. I trade a lot, but this is a speculation and is done by those who wish to speculate, and can afford to do so. Taking delivery of gold at these levels is one of the safest and most conservative things one could do to prepare for the next couple years. The two mindsets are entirely different but they are not incompatible.

I will play the volatility for a bit and, when gold looks to be a good buy again, I start calling my clients and recommending delivery. I have a client who took delivery of gold at $278 spot, who was happy to place a modest short at $300. That he is speculating that gold could fall back some is not inconsistent with the long term goals of pulling money out of the system and into gold in preparation for the change in the millennium, and all that event may bring.

People come in all shapes and flavors and their reason for owning gold vary. I think my company is pushing protection of assets and delivery. Whenever I get a new call, I always ask which the client is interested in. If delivery is the answer, I always take care that those needs are met before suggesting any type of speculation. They called to buy and hold gold, my job is to ship them gold, not put that money at risk in a speculative trade. Many times the client will want to do both, in which case I usually suggest that we take care of the delivery needs first and then look at the market later to see if it makes sense to speculate.

As for unanswered e-mails, I will try to get to some this weekend. I will take a well deserved day off tomorrow to kayak in Newport Bay and cavort with the sea lion pups and cleanse my mind and soul of too much talking about metals to many folks for weeks on end. Those that e-mail me at the Monex site would see quicker responses if the were to mail me at rjd@pacbell.net.

All this said, and most of it done, is to clarify what seemed to be unintended impressions. Now that it is said, I can go have dinner, yes?

Go Gold

Righty O


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:23
Richard Burke (Gold Mine Poem (Actually song)) ID#411318:
Aurator: It does get on your mind, doesn't it! My father who came from Iowa, North Dakota and Montana used to sing the song while he was shaving in the morning when I was a boy ( latter half 1930s ) . I have a hunch it was written in the twentys or early thirtys by one of the then popular song writers. Perhaps in the early part of the depression; it would fit. I would be glad, and I am sure you would too, to hear from someone else who might have more information.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:17
24K (Retry on Dilbert cartoon) ID#264289:
It was a case of You can't get there from here so try this one.

http://search.nytimes.com/diversions/cartoons/

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:16
AUH20 (Highrise) ID#253260:
I currently hold 8000 shares of Rangy. Have over 50 % loss at this time. Do you think it will turn around or should I take my losses at this time. It keeps going down in an up market?

Opinions form everyone greatly appreciated.

Thanks in advance.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:14
panda (@Suddenly, there was access to KITCO....) ID#225220:
As if someone threw a switch….. There it was. The Kitco Web page……….

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:12
aurator (Pome) ID#250121:
Richard Burke

Some months ago you posted this rather fine song:.

“There's a gold mine in the sky, so far away.
We will find it you and I some sunny day
Then we'll sit up there and watch the world go by
When we find that long lost gold mine in the sky.
Far away, far away

Is it your own composition? I should like to give credit where credit is due, darned thing won't leave me alone!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:10
HighRise (Kitco) ID#401460:

Bart this crazy, I am still waiting to see my last post as I write this one. I have two Kitco windows open so that I can continue to access your site while I wait for the other one to load or open.

Maybe by the time I get this one entered I will be able to see it on the other window while this one loads. If not I will have to open a third Kitco window.

HighRise

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:09
24K (Dilbert on Y2K) ID#264289:
Oct. 1 Cartoon at this site:

http://weblink.unitedmedia.com/servers/weblink/SOTD/bin/sotdsrv01.cgi?Strip=dt

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:08
Isure (Dec. gold) ID#368244:

Bouncing around + 90 cents

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:04
TYoung (Gold vs. Long Bond.....) ID#317193:
The war is afoot...this one is going to determine the fate of our financial future. We watch and wait. It will be BLOODY.

Tom

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 17:04
HighRise (RANGY?) ID#401460:

Trash, NEM +80% RANGY +0%
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=rangy&d=b

Who said to buy this junk!

HighRise

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 16:57
goldfevr (first volley in looming trade-wars) ID#434108:
Copyright © 1998 goldfevr/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
9/29/98:

Steelmakers ready to file unfair trade charges

WASHINGTON ( CBS.MW ) -- U.S. steelmakers are preparing
to file
official complaints of unfair trade practices against
several nations,
including Japan, Russia and Brazil, The Wall Street
Journal reported
Tuesday. The complaints would charge foreign
competitors with dumping
hot-rolled steel at unfairly low prices. South Korea is
not expected to be
named in the charges submitted to the Commerce
Department and
International Trade Commission, perhaps because most
Korean steel
imports are destined for a California mill that is
partially owned by USX
Corp. ( X ) . The United States could impose punitive
tariffs on imports
from those nations if the complaints are proven.




Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 16:52
Voyeur Professor (Gold's critical juncture. . .) ID#231101:
Copyright © 1998 Voyeur Professor/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

As Charles Dickens once wrote, these are times that try men's souls. I believe both the gold bear and the Dow bull stand, at inverse points of course, at a historic juncture which may very well determine their future. Gold at $302.6 as a close today has nudged the very threshhold of its upward resistance. If gold breaks through this resistance and closes past it for the next few days, then, I believe we can regard this recent rally the beginning of a rally to $315-325, and possibly to $340. Psychologically, gold must demonstrate its mettle to the vast army of doubting Thomases, particularly the shorts who have played gold down for over a year. But the breakthrough would also signify a rather obvious reversal to the general public who are only dimly aware of gold investing. In short ( no pun intended ) , the relation of gold to its resistance and the Dow to its resistance has monumental significance. Most technical analysts have established 7200 to 7400 as a bottom resistance for the Dow. In fact, many like Ralph Acampora have touted the fact that the Dow has achieved higher lows and higher highs since July 17th. If the Dow holds its resistance at 7400, then the market will rally again, at least to retrace a higher high of maybe 8500. Gold, suddenly seen by many as a refuge or haven investment, would have to fight the old tiresome psychology that has depressed it since 1996. Gold, then, must break through its current resistance and the Dow must crash through its bottom at 7400 to insure the legitimacy of gold's recovery. With apologies to Old Gold who seems convinced the gold bull is dead, I think all the evidence needs to surface before we celebrate.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 16:46
morbius (Do you smell ...) ID#35757:
Smoke?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 16:45
2BR02B? (Why do Kay? Well, why not.) ID#266105:

http://www.thesitefights.com/wepatrol/mil_bug.gif

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 16:37
xau5 (test) ID#210163:
.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 16:35
ROR (USGOV) ID#412286:
Time to start the 30 year auctions and lock in these rates.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 16:35
TYoung (Gold bull...confirmation) ID#317193:
Do we get a weekly close above $300 tomorrow...which supposedly confirms the bull? Venture a guess folk. Don't know what to do...all my gold hedges are well up and my physical just sits there: ) .

This is exciting...no matter which way she goes.

Tom

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 16:33
moa (UBS....stock value -60% since Aug 4....gold loan debacle...next.) ID#269128:
Copyright © 1998 moa/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
UBS

MARTIN TAYLOR, chief executive of Barclays, is reported to
be dismayed at the collapse of his share price. But if Mr Taylor
thinks he's got problems, he should take a look at the price of
UBS, Europe's largest bank. Down another 15 per cent
yesterday, the shares have fallen all the way from 650 Swiss
francs on 4 August to 270 by last night's close.

In part this is down to the general malaise in the banking
sector, but in UBS's case there's an extra dimension. Last
week the bank disclosed a SFr950m provision against its
investment in John Meriwether's Long Term Capital
Management. The discovery of this exposure is the cause of
bitter recriminations within the bank, for both in size and
substance, it went way beyond that of anybody else.

As part of what was supposed to be a normal trade, UBS
bought a large part of Mr Meriwether's interest in LTCM, and
that of other partners, the supposed reason being so that Mr
Meriwether's gain could be counted as capital rather than
income for tax purposes. This position went completely
unhedged, with the result that when the balloon went up, it was
UBS that was left holding the baby. Forget all those stories
about Mr Meriwether and others facing personal bankruptcy;
actually they are sitting pretty on UBS's money.

UBS was formed out of the recent merger of Union Bank of
Switzerland and Swiss Bank Corporation, owners of Warburg
Dillon Read. As it happens, it was the UBS part of the group
that was responsible for the LTCM investment. It had nothing
to do with the old guard at Warburgs or its Swiss Bank parent,
although they did know about it at the time of the merger.
Whether or not this involvement complied with established
UBS rules and practices, the knives are out and heads are
bound to roll.

Chief among these could be the chairman himself, Mathis
Cabiallavetta. He was chief executive of Union Bank of
Switzerland before taking up his present position as chairman
of the combined group, and was therefore the ultimate line
manager for this and other suspect trades. The Swiss Bank
faction is demanding he be held responsible. There's still an
outside possibility he'll be able to pass the buck, but the betting
is heavily that he'll be the first heavyweight victim of the
LTCM affair, possibly before the week is up.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 16:28
MM (Got a little hectic there at the end :)) ID#350179:
INDEX___OPEN____CLOSE___%CHG____CHG
DOW___7842.62__7632.53__-2.679%__-210.09
XAU______74.99____79.29__+5.734%___+4.30
NOTE XAU is measured from prior close.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 16:23
FOX-MAN (COMEX METAL WAREHOUSE TOTALS...) ID#288186:
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Oct. 1

-- TOTALS
Gold 958,389 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 73,142,231 + 345,621 troy ounces
Copper 67,729 + 0 short tons

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 15:29
EJ (Riiiiiiing! Riiiiing! Riiiiiing!) ID#229207:
DOW -200. Time to wake up. Whoah! Have I been sleeping that long? I knew it'd go off, but I figured sooner. Time to put on a pot of coffee and get back to work.
-EJ

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 15:19
EJ (Riiiiiiing! Riiiiing! Riiiiiing!) ID#229207:
DOW -200. Time to wake up. Whoah! Have I been sleeping that long? I knew it'd go off, but I figured sooner. Time to put on a pot of coffee and get back to work.
-EJ

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 15:14
LGB (@ Puetz.... U.S. economy in trouble) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Puetz.....The mighty U.S. economy is in trouble. Asian contagion threatens our shores. Deflation, led by a bust in the equities markets..., falling profits, fear induced panic, could all spell big trouble for what is currently an extremely healthy economy.

Forget Robert Rubin, forget Bill Clinton, forget Allan Greenspan, forget the FED, the IMF, world bank, et al.

There's only one person who can help us in our time of trouble. Yes Puetz...only one person can restore confidence to these U.S. markets. It's on your shoulders man. You and you alone can do it.

Will you kindly post a Crash update on this day of precipitous decline, and repeat your predictions of 3000 to 4000 point drops in the next week or two. In so doing you will assure an immediate turnaround in bearish sentiment, and secure a support level for stocks that will lead to rally.

Thank you.

P.S. to PH...if there was any validity, even a scrap to your insult post re Fman, I'd respond. There isn't so I won't. Please feel free to re-impose your policy of not adressing me here. Thank you.

All.... Off to rocket science now.... Go GOLD....and Gold shares...and SSC...and silver...and Loral stock ( oops...off 4% today! What me worry? heheheh )

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 15:00
MoReGoLd (@Hugo) ID#348286:
Relax, yesterday everyone was saying it can't break 300. !
Enjoy the ride. The only reason to worry is if your not on board the train yet ( or short ) .
Hedge funds will get obliterated once we have a
$10. + move in Gold. IMO a matter of time.....

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:59
Steve in TO (Ravenfire - I loved your post yesterday about the . . . ) ID#209265:
Copyright © 1998 Steve in TO/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
stupid McDonald's Snoopy craze that is sweeping the world. Reminds me of the Cabbage Patch doll craze that had people fighting in lineups and paying ridiculous prices.

People forget that big moves in markets are driven by emotions, not logic.

October seems to be the month when people are most susceptible to mass, irrational action- to being stampeded, if you will. People on this site keep talking about next Monday being a key date. Well, next Monday ( Oct. 5 ) is also the next date of the full moon. We'll see soon enough whether October turns out to be another panic month like it was last year- and whether the PPT can hold the fort this time!

- Steve

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:46
Richard Burke (XAU) ID#411318:
At 11:30 PDT - Dec gold closed just below 303 after hitting it. XAU 60 min chart shows XAU below upward trendline from yesterday and deteriorating stochastics, Williams %R and MACD. Will gold stock buyers be happy enough with Dec gold holding between 302 and 303 to keep buying? Comments?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:46
BigFisherman (@LGB) ID#258273:
Copyright © 1998 BigFisherman/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thank you for your response. Like you, I come from the high tech sector. I start software companies, and have done well. My research into market opportunities of a few years ago led me to believe we are in the downleg of a 50 year credit cycle. I have a Ph.D. in biometrics and recognize that in nature all things cycle. Why should man be any different. Fighting the cycle only causes discontinuities as the forcing function is exogenous. That is, it is a natural cycle driven by the length of the human life span. We should go with the flow and live well.

Because of it debt exposure, I have little to no hope for the US economy in its current embodiment as a supertanker; however, I do see a vital future. Decentralized, physically disjoint, but effective. Like a fleet of speedboats. For my part, I am starting a pattern recognition company for internet commerce. I am not accepting investment from perma-bulls or perma-bears. Until recently that has been a problem. No more...

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:46
ravenfire (@LGB (hmm)) ID#333126:
one paragraph seems to have gotten truncated in my previous reply to you. can't remember exactly what i wrote and it's probably not worth repeating anyway...

once again, good luck with that Loral :- )

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:37
hugo () ID#402151:

2:32 dec gold close 301.8-302.00 weak close .don't like it one bit. when it pushed through 303.2 it should have shot up. failure is ominous or am I just paranoid
still...gained 3.00

silver in the toilet dec 5.300. maybe what held gold back along with platinum.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:36
hugo () ID#402151:

2:32 dec gold close 301.8-302.00 weak close .don't like it one bit. when it pushed through 303.2 it should have shot up. failure is ominous or am I just paranoid
still...gained 3.00

silver in the toilet dec 5.300. maybe what held gold back along with platinum.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:32
veg (spz close belo 972or in between1016 any body for+1016 take your pick- ) ID#423159:
where isppt?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:31
sharefin (Clinton's secret war games -- part 2 ) ID#284255:
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/exclusiv/980930_exbre_clintons_secr.html
President Bill Clinton could enter a few key strokes on a computer and selectively disable all electronics anywhere in the world, including within the U.S., using a top secret satellite system known as LEO. That ability is not unique to the U.S., however. Other countries and even terrorists could knock out electronics equipment anywhere in the world.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:27
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
CageRattler -- The end of the government. All those 'Gs' you here about will be king; Gold, Guns, Grub, Ground, Grub and any others you can think of ( not necessarily in that order ) !

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:24
OLD GOLD () ID#242325:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The 19 year old gold bear is over now that deflation has replaced inflation is the chief enemy. Real interest rates are headed considerably lower which will drive POG well above $300 before long.

Canadian columnist sees perilous financial waters.

October 1, 1998

Perilous financial waters

By ERIC MARGOLIS
Contributing Foreign Editor
How many more shocks can the shaky world financial system take?
Asia is toast. Russia's financial Potemkin Village has collapsed. Latin America is facing a lethal currency
crisis.
Late last week the world as we know it nearly came to an end: a little-known hedge fund, Long Term Capital
Management ( LTCM ) almost went bust to the tune of US$100-$120 billion. LTCM's collapse and asset
liquidation could have triggered panic on Wall Street, and even led to a crash of world financial markets.
Derivatives and hedge funds are a casino for big financial institutions and fat-cat investors. The opening ante
for LTCM investors was $10 million. These plays are like huge side bets made at a high-stakes crap shoot.
When on a roll, they soar, but once things go wrong, watch out.
LTCM's financial alchemists managed to miraculously transmute an opening investment of $4 billion into $100-$120 billion in
hyper-leveraged assets through aggressive borrowing, purple smoke and mirrors. The money wizard and two Nobel laureates
who ran LTCM used complex computer models to predict bond movements, and then bet enormous sums of borrowed money
on arbitrating spreads between short and long sales.
Russia's collapse and the ensuing international financial panic put the kibosh on the best-laid computer plans of LTCM, leaving
it bankrupt, with some $10 billion in debts. Washington organized a hasty rescue, funded by big banks to whom LTCM owed
billions. It was, as Wellington said, a close-run thing.
Also, one rich in irony.
Two years ago, pyramid investment schemes - modern versions of the old Ponzi swindle - brought financial chaos and political
collapse to tiny Albania. The western media heaped scorn on the rustic Albanians for their gullibility in believing they could get
returns of 30%-40%.
LTCM was an Albanian pyramid scheme, writ large, run by smooth Wall Street hucksters in wide suspenders and Brooks
Brothers suits. The sophisticated, fat-cat investors, who expected returns of 30%-40%, got plucked as surely as the poor
Albanians. American banks will take a big hit. Switzerland's largest bank, UBS, lost a shocking - and humiliating - $750
million ( though sources tell me it made $1.2 billion with LTCM in 1997 ) .
Last year, I was offered a share of a New York hedge fund that was sure to return 30%. I demurred. My years in Mideast
bazaars taught me that any investment that makes 30% without effort or crime is more likely to lose 100%. This was Las Vegas,
not investment. The fund is -20% today.
The LTCM crash was observed with mordant satisfaction in Tokyo. For years, Americans have been scolding, sermonizing
and hectoring Japan to reform its financial institutions, let insolvent ones fail and come clean with transparent accounting.
Japanese watched gleefully as Washington scrambled to save LTCM from bankruptcy and sort out its murky, tangled accounts
that seem as mysterious and opaque as the Tibetan Book of the Dead.
More scarifying, only a handful of experts understand derivatives. There are 4,000 hedge funds of varying sizes, all operating
in a financial and regulatory seventh dimension. No one knows how much multiplied debt has been accumulated by speculators.
Estimates run to $1.4 trillion!
These huge pools of speculative investment are like naval mines floating free in international sea lanes. Which will be the next
to explode and take down a major bank, as Barrings was wrecked in 1995 by a 27-year-old trader who ran amok playing
derivatives?
There are arguments to be made for and against saving LTCM. Its collapse could have ignited an international financial panic.
But government has no business saving speculators from their own greed and recklessness. Remember, though, the 1930s'
Great Depression was triggered by the collapse of a small Viennese bank, Credit Anstalt.
What next? Brazil? Another LTCM? Germany wrecked by socialist quackery?
We are entering perilous times. Extreme prudence in public and personal finances is in order.



Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:23
OLD GOLD () ID#242325:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The 19 year old gold bear is over now that deflation has replaced inflation is the chief enemy. Real interest rates are headed considerably lower which will drive POG well above $300 before long.

Canadian columnist sees perilous financial waters.

October 1, 1998

Perilous financial waters

By ERIC MARGOLIS
Contributing Foreign Editor
How many more shocks can the shaky world financial system take?
Asia is toast. Russia's financial Potemkin Village has collapsed. Latin America is facing a lethal currency
crisis.
Late last week the world as we know it nearly came to an end: a little-known hedge fund, Long Term Capital
Management ( LTCM ) almost went bust to the tune of US$100-$120 billion. LTCM's collapse and asset
liquidation could have triggered panic on Wall Street, and even led to a crash of world financial markets.
Derivatives and hedge funds are a casino for big financial institutions and fat-cat investors. The opening ante
for LTCM investors was $10 million. These plays are like huge side bets made at a high-stakes crap shoot.
When on a roll, they soar, but once things go wrong, watch out.
LTCM's financial alchemists managed to miraculously transmute an opening investment of $4 billion into $100-$120 billion in
hyper-leveraged assets through aggressive borrowing, purple smoke and mirrors. The money wizard and two Nobel laureates
who ran LTCM used complex computer models to predict bond movements, and then bet enormous sums of borrowed money
on arbitrating spreads between short and long sales.
Russia's collapse and the ensuing international financial panic put the kibosh on the best-laid computer plans of LTCM, leaving
it bankrupt, with some $10 billion in debts. Washington organized a hasty rescue, funded by big banks to whom LTCM owed
billions. It was, as Wellington said, a close-run thing.
Also, one rich in irony.
Two years ago, pyramid investment schemes - modern versions of the old Ponzi swindle - brought financial chaos and political
collapse to tiny Albania. The western media heaped scorn on the rustic Albanians for their gullibility in believing they could get
returns of 30%-40%.
LTCM was an Albanian pyramid scheme, writ large, run by smooth Wall Street hucksters in wide suspenders and Brooks
Brothers suits. The sophisticated, fat-cat investors, who expected returns of 30%-40%, got plucked as surely as the poor
Albanians. American banks will take a big hit. Switzerland's largest bank, UBS, lost a shocking - and humiliating - $750
million ( though sources tell me it made $1.2 billion with LTCM in 1997 ) .
Last year, I was offered a share of a New York hedge fund that was sure to return 30%. I demurred. My years in Mideast
bazaars taught me that any investment that makes 30% without effort or crime is more likely to lose 100%. This was Las Vegas,
not investment. The fund is -20% today.
The LTCM crash was observed with mordant satisfaction in Tokyo. For years, Americans have been scolding, sermonizing
and hectoring Japan to reform its financial institutions, let insolvent ones fail and come clean with transparent accounting.
Japanese watched gleefully as Washington scrambled to save LTCM from bankruptcy and sort out its murky, tangled accounts
that seem as mysterious and opaque as the Tibetan Book of the Dead.
More scarifying, only a handful of experts understand derivatives. There are 4,000 hedge funds of varying sizes, all operating
in a financial and regulatory seventh dimension. No one knows how much multiplied debt has been accumulated by speculators.
Estimates run to $1.4 trillion!
These huge pools of speculative investment are like naval mines floating free in international sea lanes. Which will be the next
to explode and take down a major bank, as Barrings was wrecked in 1995 by a 27-year-old trader who ran amok playing
derivatives?
There are arguments to be made for and against saving LTCM. Its collapse could have ignited an international financial panic.
But government has no business saving speculators from their own greed and recklessness. Remember, though, the 1930s'
Great Depression was triggered by the collapse of a small Viennese bank, Credit Anstalt.
What next? Brazil? Another LTCM? Germany wrecked by socialist quackery?
We are entering perilous times. Extreme prudence in public and personal finances is in order.



Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:23
BillD (Cage Rattler...that would) ID#252302:
rattle a lot of cages...not likely in your or my lifetime...

Haven't you heard...we have a budget surplus ...why we'll just pay those bonds off. Heh heh

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:21
ravenfire (@LGB) ID#333126:
You say you'll dollar average back when the Dow reaches 7000. I'm just a tad more bearish than that.

are

Waiting to see if Mr. Ure's predictions ( www.urbansurvival.com ) hold any more water than Puetz's myself ...

good luck with that Loral stock - you'll need it after the beating it's had the past few days...

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:21
BigFisherman (CNN ticker) ID#258273:
Kind of nice to see newmont and stillwater show up on the ticker today. Getchell started showing of and on a few days ago. Will give echo some company. Will the masses notice these little green up arrows among all the red?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:21
BillD (Cage Rattler...that would) ID#252302:
rattle a lot of cages...not likely in your or my lifetime....

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:20
PH in LA (Did someone say mud?) ID#225408:
Copyright © 1998 PH in LA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Dear Mr. LGB:

Please allow me just this once to violate my own self-imposed prohibition towards addressing you directly long enough to reply to your own spin-filled, distorted interpretation of Mr. Farfel's words.

Do you really claim that two months of cooling is enough to disipate whatever over-heating Farfel is refering to? If you do, please be so kind as to prove it, rather than merely following your usual pattern of asserting it.

Your remarks about the state of the dollar's health appear to miss Farfel's point entirely. The dollar IS in freefall. This is not because of a .25% cut in interest rates; it started long before even Stradmaster hinted that a rate cut was coming many weeks ago. Take a look at the Spanish peseta for confirmation. Yesterday I posted at USAGold that it has fallen over 7% since August and today it is down nearly another peseta. As I read him, your nemesis Farfel is forecasting that such a fall will impact our markets by turning into a wholesale flight of foreign capital in the near future. Yesterday's rise in Tbills does not by any means prove that they will continue to rise forever. As Gollum said just today: Booms are always followed by busts. Always have been, always will be.

By unemployment, Farfel was refering to his own reference to layoffs in the banking and financial sector to avoid bankruptcy. Insisting that he is addressing the state of the help-wanted ads in your own rocket science industry or your home-town is an excellent example of your usual short-sighted distortions being foisted off on us to further your own agenda.

An agenda which has become more than stale for a long time now. Let me hereby ask you one last time on behalf of many here to desist in your mindless, spin-doctoring attempt to discredit Farfel. Otherwise, you will be treated to reposts of some of your own more mindless and contradictory posts from the past ala REALISTIC. If you feel you must disagree with the content of Farfel's posts, please feel free to do so. Just spare us the distortions, the spin-meistering and the name-calling.

( Just in case you were thinking of it, please spare us any mud-slinging too! )

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:20
moa (Gold Shorts.....hand on the knob.....) ID#269128:
time to hit the close....GOGOLD

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:19
hugo (ravenfire ) ID#402151:

bonds do look overextended
unfortunately I blew all my cash on gold calls

2:17 dec gold 302.7 too many stinkin shortsighted bears. Are those dingbat gold producers still selling here at the bottom... will make for an extended gold bull run

2:19 303.1 finishing strong


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:13
powmain (Gollum, You found the lever) ID#21275:
hang on

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:13
Cage Rattler (What would happen if the US defaulted on its bonds ?) ID#33184:


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:13
LGB (@ Big Fisherman) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Yours in not an unreasonable approach. We don't really disagree on much. One who has benefited enormously from a booming economy, is wise to pull some chips off the table when dark coulds form on the horizon. I have done much the same.

The potential for global deflationary collapse reaching our shores is certainly a possibility. However, current U.S. economic numbers do not yet reflect a need to fear it's inevitibility. There have been Guru Gloom and Doomers predicting such depressions for 50 years...and their followers have essentially lost out on the huge gains everyone else made in a thriving economy.

It's wise to be prudent..we agree. But I wouldn;t place to large a wager on the demise of the world's strongest economy. Rumors of it's death are premature and greatly exagerated.

Like I said...I'm no advocate for putting heads in sand. That's why I read every scrap of bad news I can find as well as the good. That's why I hang out here...to keep a balanced perspective. I don't respect the spindoctoring thoughtless stock cheeleaders any more than the thoughtless
Gold ones.

I'm trying to look at ALL sides and maximize my family's quality of life. So far, this balanced approached has reaped us great benefits...which we would not be enjoying had I listened to the Gloom and Doomers of yestertear.

Good luck on cabin... don't forget the generator and I can ASSURE you those contractors would rather have U.S. dollars than payment in Gold!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:11
Richard Burke (XAU Moving) ID#411318:
At 11:06 PST XAU at 79.2, just thru previous resistance and keeoing avoe upward trendline from yesterday. 5 min chart about one hour of prior basing and it looks like a move to the upside.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:09
hugo () ID#402151:

1:56

hesitation
dec gold 302.7
sil 5.335

1:58
dec gold 303.00

2:00 302.5 trouble
2:03 302.3 more trouble
2:04 302.8 recovery 25 minutes for bears to get out
2:05 303.3 ahhhhhh
2:08 303.0 perhaps tomorrow

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 14:00
lenaxe (Between now and the close we will see) ID#316209:

if gold and gold stocks have legs for an immediate move up. The gaps from this morning have not been closed, and that's a really good sign. Also, futures seem to be holding near their highs of the day. NEM ought to be a good bellweather to watch for the direction. So far, in this rally phase, each time it looks like they are going to blast off, they retreat; but then again rally from a higher low. Kind of keeps one off balance. But, today's gaps haven't been closed yet. Here's hoping.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:59
LGB (@ Ravenfire) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 11:21 ravenfire ( funny, LGB keeps very quiet on market down days ) ID#333126: where's the hordes of 401k investors putting money faithfully in the market month after month now, eh?

Raven..I wouldn't want to leave the question unanswered.

As I've said TOO many times here..... I take the long view of markets. Up days and down days mean very little to me.

I consider the current bearish phase in the U.S. market, very healthy considering the global economic crises, and the overvaluation levels we were reaching, not to mention the prospects of falling corporate profits over the next few quarters.

That's why I have NOT been in mutual funds for over a year now...as I've said here only about 900 times.

I bought Gold shares this earlier week for the first time in 10 years. I have been trading SSC as well. I have been diversifying into bullion, GFold, silver and PLatinum. Said so many times.

I'm NOT a cheeleader for the DOW or for some pro stock point of view. I AM a cheerleader for truth and honesty. I made 1000% plus gains in stock mutual funds during the Bull run. I ulled out of mutuals 14 months ago when the DOW hit 8300. When I see 7000 approaching, I'll cautiuosly dollar cost average back in over a period of 1 to 2 years. While maintining my Gold, & silver hedge.

I'm not an advocate for metals or paper. I'm an advocate for honesty however. Let's not be dishonest by portraying all those who have been rewarded by a booming U.S. economy, as being stupid.

The most successful U.S. investor of all time...Warren Buffett, believes this current downturn in stocks is bringing forth excellent buy opportunitys in a market that had been greatly overvalued. I tend to agree with him.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:58
Pedro (Rubin speech) ID#224151:
In essence is saying that World Financial system changes are coming. The Current
crisis....which Washington now recongnizes as such and not a “Glitch” is forcing it. Will
Gold have a more up front role. Current strength in this historic store-house of value
commodity suggests the answer is yes.Go Gold.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:57
ravenfire (30 year bond yield at 4.90%) ID#333126:
darn - fingers itching to make a call and buy some puts ...

will those bonds just keep going up?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:56
moa (Financial Panic...global fear...everything's rosy eh Lurky?) ID#269128:
Copyright © 1998 moa/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thursday October 1, 1:29 pm Eastern Time

Omega Advisors' Cooperman denies fund losses

NEW YORK, Oct 1 ( Reuters ) - Leon Cooperman, chairman of the hedge fund Omega Advisors, rejected
rumors that the fund has suffered severe losses.

``It's completely inaccurate,'' he said, adding that ``we do not have a penny in borrowing and we do not
have any swaps.''

``So I don't know where the ... rumors are coming from,'' he said. He declined to discuss specifics.

Last month, Cooperman acknowledged in a phone interview with Reuters that the fund had some losses in emerging markets. ``As you saw ...
George Soros lost money. You can assume I lost some money too,'' he said last month.

Since then, Cooperman has let go some traders and reorganized the fund's day-to-day management, he affirmed.

The fund has significantly trimmed its emerging markets investments over the last several months, Cooperman said in the interview last month.

Market speculation of troubles at Omega has been circulating for the last three months since the fund was said to have been a large buyer of troubled
Russian domestic debt.

Recent rumors about Omega and other hedge funds have gained momentum after the near-demise of Long-Term Capital Management L.P.

Cooperman is to appear on CNN's Moneyline Thursday evening.

U.S. Stocks Sharply Lower Amid Global Fear

By Holly Rosenkrantz

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Stocks dropped sharply Thursday, following the lead of overseas markets, with shares of
technology companies taking the hardest fall.

In afternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 149.07 points, or 1.9 percent, at 7,693.55. In the broad
market, declines led advances by a 23-to-8 margin on heavy volume of 500 million shares.

``The fever is not over yet,'' said Doug Myers, vice president of equity trading at Interstate/Johnson Lane. ``It looks like it
will be rough going for a while as we come to grips with the churning in markets worldwide.''

The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index fell harder, declining 61.18 points, or 3.61 percent, to 1,632.66.

``The Nasdaq is certainly taking more than its fair share of the beating today,'' said Peter Coolidge, senior equity trader at Brean Murray & Co. ``It
had been the financial stocks because of their exposure to hedge funds and overseas markets, but now it's the tech stocks that are taking it on the
chin.''
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19981001/bs/stocks_464.html

Thursday October 1 12:52 PM EDT

Fed Finds Tighter Business Credit

By DAVE SKIDMORE Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON ( AP ) _ A survey of bank lending conducted before this week's interest-rate cut detected signs of what could be the start of a
business credit crunch, a Federal Reserve report suggested today.

``Results indicate that there has been a fairly widespread tightening of standards and terms for commercial and industrial loans to larger firms,'' the
Fed said.

It routinely conducts such surveys of senior loan officers at large banks every three months, but today's was a special survey, taken in
mid-September ``to assess the impact of recent financial turbulence on the bank loan market.''
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/financial/story.html?s=v/ap/19981001/bs/credit_crunch_3.html

Thursday October 1, 12:03 pm Eastern Time

US lawmaker seeks antitrust review of LTCM rescue

WASHINGTON, Oct 1 ( Reuters ) - A key U.S. lawmaker on Thursday called for the Justice Department
to review whether the consortium put together to rescue ailing hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management
would be too powerful.

``The combination of many of the world's most sophisticated financial powerhouses to operate jointly
hedge fund activities may add up to more sway over relative currency values than any central bank or
finance ministry in the world can match,'' House Banking Committee Chairman Jim Leach said.

Leach made the call for the review in a statement released at a committee hearing into the LTCM rescue.

``The bailout may involve a tendency toward concentration that the Justice Department has an obligation to review,'' the statement said.

Speaking at the hearing in reply to a question from Leach, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan said he was less concerned about
concentration of power. ``I myself am far less concerned than you are with respect to the concerns that might arise from that,'' Greenspan said.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:56
BillD (Steve in Fl....MONEX) ID#252302:
is also advertising on CNN...pushing Gold Coins...what is this world coming to heh heh

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:56
BigFisherman (LGB) ID#258273:
Copyright © 1998 BigFisherman/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I respectfully disagree. There are those who have correctly predicted the currency crises, the bear market, a bull market in gold, and our pending banking collapse. Their common theme includes a deflationary credit implosion. While I agree that premature statemnts are a dis-service to us all, I see a great bear market in real estate starting next year.

I have sold my home after an 18% run up this year alone, and put half my profits in a mix of gold, gold shares and bearx. Happy camper. I have been unable to sell my lakefront property in the sticks. That market has already corrected.

I guess the real issue is whether you believe whether or not we are in the early phases of a global deflationary depression. If so, one must hedge his/her real estate ( debt ) positions. I am not interested in making payments on a mortgage that exceeds the value of my home. I prefer to be cashed out, or renting.

Perhaps I will take my profits in gold shares this past month and build a Y2K cabin on that lakefront property next summer. The local contractor and mills will accept gold if necessary. While the property's value will likely cycle down for several years, at least property taxes will be much lower....

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:54
Steve in FL (Monex is pushing Platinum...Why? Hhhhmmmm...) ID#213335:
Finally my gold shimmers. What a beautiful sight!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:52
BillD (@rich...re:drooy) ID#252302:
Sure was a better buy a few weeks ago at 1 7/8 ... but I bought some today at 3 1/2...who knows...but I'm up for the day....

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:50
General (Platinum coins better, worse, or same as Y2K hedge?) ID#365216:
Just wondering what opinion is out there on the advantages and
disadvantages of holding platinum coins ( such as the Eagle $100s )
vice gold as an investment and Y2K hedge in the event of a banking
or financial meltdown? Platinum is rarer and higher priced but
it may not be as liquid on the open market: is this correct?

Thanks. That is all.

T1: thanks for the kevlar tip. Namaste and a gulp and puf to ya!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:49
rich (Drooy Good buy) ID#411320:
Do any of you gold bugs know some infor of Drooy? like Cash positions
and is it a good buy a 3 3\8 a share?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:48
Sojourn (stocks, XAU, and gold looking for a jump) ID#28939:

The centre point of the move or point of recognition is fast approaching for gold in wave 3 of ( c ) . Should see some gapping action beginning soon. The Dow is approaching the same juncture in the opposite direction. Gold targets for wave ( c ) is still in the 332-338 range.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:48
hugo () ID#402151:

12:48

dec gold 302.8
here we goooooo...

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:42
Richard Burke (XAU posted time error) ID#411318:
On my last post the time noted was Pacific Daylight Time.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:39
hugo () ID#402151:

1:38
dec gold 302.2
sil 532.00

bears gave it their best shot
timid bulls left
moving up...coiling....

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:33
Dramis (LTCM bailout was Plan B) ID#261372:
Check story on LTCM on CNNfn : http://www.cnnfn.com/hotstories/washun/9810/01/ltcm/

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:32
Richard Burke (XAU - Critical Juncture) ID#411318:
At 10:24 XAU at critical point on support ( 78.2+/- ) of upward trendline from yesterday intraday. It tried to break upper resistance of 78.8-78.9 this AM again, failed, and if it finds support here will try again. Dec Gold similarly has been trying to get above 302-303 resistance. There is a major battle going on.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:32
FOX-MAN (Mike S.; I agree..Not that I'm superstitious or anything!) ID#288186:
Go GOLD! Go Silver!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:30
powmain (Trust in RR & AG, they will save you) ID#21275:
In order to be saved you must sell your gold safety nbet

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:24
LGB (*Fword's repost) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I'm sorry, but I can't allow such inane commentary to pass by unchallenged. PH just reposted a lengthy piece by the infamous banned poster, Fword. It starts with these comments;

The real estate market is overheated in most major American cities. Financial corporations are laying off workers in droves ( not downsizing this time but bankruptcy avoidance! ) . Increasing unemployment means less consumption and less investment in 401k's, etc. The dollar is falling far too quickly, inspiring foreign capital to head for home

How can we give this Ffellow any credibility on any point, when his first few points are blatantly false? Point by point;

1 ) The real estate market experienced a typical summer boom, but is off in August and Septmeber. Certainly far from overheated.

2 ) The latest unemployment figures show a continued decline in unemployment, to decade+ level lows. Completely false to say there is increasing unemployment leading to... etc etc. We read about all the corporate layoff's because that's what's reported. We DON'T read about all the jobs going begging. Even here in the silicon valley, where much semiconductor industry is tied to the Asian economy, every announced layoff is countered by multiple new job openings going unfilled. And I'm NOT talking hambuger flippers here, I'm talking a diverse basket of skilled technical , engineering, and manufacturing jobs.

It's completely false to say unemployment is rising. The usual fabricated facts of a zealot who has no respect for truth.

3 ) U.S. Treasury's SOARED yesterday, and foreign capital continues to invest in U.S. Tbills. Far from a wholesale flight of capital. I'm sure the dollar will fall further...by design....as interest rates are driven lower. This is a good thing. But to call record investment in Tbills as we saw yesterday a wholesale flight of capital!

The spinmeisters do themselves no favors by making their points via blatant falsehoods. Whether they be stock proponents....or GOLD proponents.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:21
James (Mangy Rangy@Goldilocks have you ever looked at their fin statements?) ID#252150:
They may have great properties, good mgmt, etc., etc. But as I already posted here...THEY HAVE NO WORKING CAPITAL. If POG doesn't get well above 350 soon, they will be forced to sell off most of their assets at firesale prices. All IMHO.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:21
Gollum (@EJ) ID#35571:
Uh, how about minus fifty?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:19
James (Mangy Rangy@Goldilocks have you ever looked at their fin statements?) ID#252150:
They may have great properties, good mgmt, etc., etc. But as I already posted here...THEY HAVE NO WORKING CAPITAL. If POG doesn't get well above 350 soon, they will be forced to sell off their assets at firesale prices. All IMHO.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:15
Gollum (@skinny ) ID#35571:
Anything can happen, I guess, but I just looked at gold and it looks pretty solid to me. So I don't think it was the gold lever.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:14
mole (@the golden prophet - want to bet?-the silver prophet) ID#350145:
silver will reach $10 before gold reaches $600: A DOUBLE IS A DOUBLE IS A DOUBLE.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:14
EJ (Gollum) ID#229207:
Hey. Nothin' happened. Yaaaaawn. ( Streeeeetch ) My eyes are getting heavy. Think I'll take a nap. Set my DOW alarm to wake me up at -200.
-EJ

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:12
LongorShort (goldilocks 11:24 : rangy) ID#318271:
me too on the note. for me, it was an url posted to s.a. newpaper article saying something like rangy might be dead by the end of the year-i liq 1000 rangy on apr 2. later because of the seemingly worsening of the commie/crime/racial news from the volks ( white ) newspapers, touching my heart, i liq 1000 hgmcy and 1000 drooy on jun 15. that money went elsewhere ( to gold shares )

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:10
Pete (PH in LA) ID#222231:
Your reposts of FOA and F* should be read and reread for ones financial health. Seems to me that three of the best posters with the most relevant insight to the markets were chased off this forum for reasons that seem obvious.

Best regards and thanks,

Pete

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:09
Mike Sheller (hmmmm) ID#347447:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
many voices at Kitco today declaring the unravelling of the world financial structure and the imminent explosion of gold. Several even coming up with disjointed elbows from patting themselves on the back. Others counting their profits even before they have cashed them in. Hmmmm. I start to worry for gold under these circumstances of frenzy ( Auric ebulliance? ) Let us be a bit more morose and claim that gold will disappoint once again, thus sending it ever higher. Are there no cries of $150 any longer?

Just trying to help the cause guys n' gals...just trying to help the cause ( ;- )

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:08
Gollum (DOW -142) ID#35571:
All righty. Show of hands. How many think the DOW will finish ABOVE 7800 today?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:08
skinny (Gollum) ID#28994:
If gold takes the big swan dive just before closing I will tell the Gods it was just the wrong lever.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:04
geoffs (Allen(USA)) ID#432157:
Can you give us any details of the Hedge fund that is 1.25 Trillion short---------------PLEASE

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:02
Gollum (@chris ) ID#35571:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
As I mentioned this morning, I've got a baaaad feeling about silver. PEI switched from long time bearish to bullish a couple of days ago. Appearances of future price movements look suspiciously like someone buying silver puts in anticipation of a silver sell off. Someone sneaky, buying when markets were mostly asleep and generally when gold movements were contra.

The silver market is not hard to manipulate. Anyone with ten to fifty million dollars and perhaps a private warehouse can move enough silver into and out of COMEX stocks to influence prices. If someone was in a position to do so, he could make a lot in the paper market.

But then, perhaps I'm too cynical.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:00
Allen(USA) (OK, you all can relax now.) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
No bout a doubt it, we is toast and the tobbagen, she be pickin' up speed. Hope ya got the physical: cash, metals ( precious and smokin' types ) , food. We have chewed this scenario to death since last Fall .. and we were right. The big boys were wrong .. and the shorts/derivatives deviates will be served up shortly with a nice garnish and apple in the mouth.

S&P 993 and falling ( Snap and Pop )
Long Bond 4.9% and falling ( bonds away )
Dollar falling ( Pride goeth before a fall )
Gold/silver rising ( the much maligned and hated )

Position covering in all arenas has yet to begin. What we are seeing is an anticipatory selling/covering. The real positions are yet to be dealt with. The new 'owners' have a frightening prospect before them .. sell now and lose big .. or sell later and lose all.

One fund exposure US$1.25 TRILLION. As my wise old uncle used to say, That's alot of zeros.



Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 13:00
MoReGoLd (@WONDERING ?) ID#348286:
At what point will the media change their often repeated market commentary term Profit Taking TO Loss Taking ?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:52
PH in LA (Repost from K-2) ID#225408:
-

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 04:28
farfel ( Interest Rates Must Rise Now...or PULLING THE GOLD TRIGGER! ) ID#341227:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The real estate market is overheated in most major American cities. Financial corporations are laying off workers in droves ( not downsizing this time but bankruptcy avoidance! ) . Increasing unemployment means less consumption and less investment in 401k's, etc. The dollar is falling far too quickly, inspiring foreign capital to head for home. Contrary to the assertions of JP and other deflationary exponents on K-1, we are about to witness the most amazing STAGFLATION in the history of this country. Pure deflation Not a chance! Can't happen...won't happen! Too many people today with too many AMerican dollars, no matter whether the stock market caves in today or not.

Greenspan knows damn well that there is only one logical direction for interest rates...UPWARD! THe world is engulfed in countries enacting competitive interest rate hikes ( except Japan & America ) . These rate hikes are all designed to save various countries' respective currencies from complete collapse. That's why Greenspan cut a mere 1/4%. He must protect the value of the dollar above and beyond the stock or bond markets themselves. He is protecting the Big Boys who are cash rich and already out of both stock and bond markets. His move was nothing more than a ruse, designed solely to get the last suckers into the bond and stock markets before the Big Boys slam everybody via a much needed interest rate hike! It will appear out of the blue, sooner than later. In the end, the Dollar will remain relatively strong against world currencies as interest rates move up on a competitive basis.

Gold above 300? Ridiculous...try gold above $1000 and then you are entering the right ballpark! If you have a gold stock trading today at $5.00, then that same gold stock will be worth at least $40 after the dust settles. Those who think that CB's will contain gold below 300 until '99 have no comprehension as to the speed at which the global financial system is coming apart. It is a rolling snowball and the CB's priorities must be shifting just as quickly. Concern about containing the gold price? How about concern in getting your loaned gold back? Concern about creating parity for the Euro and Dollar at the start of '99 How about concern in simply protecting the Dollar from plummetting into the depths?

But most importantly, LONG TERM CREDIT must be saved in order to avoid upsetting the most amazing pyramid scheme ever erected in world financial history via an initial 5 billion dollar investment. LTC bet the farm on interest rates rising...and so they must in order to save America's largest financial institutions. How ironic that in order to save some of the major financial institutions in this country, INTEREST RATES MUST RISE! Yet, think about it....if the Fed must choose between saving Chase, Goldman Sachs, etc. vs. saving the little guys in their mutual funds and 401ks, then whose interests do you think they will favor? When interest rates are raised, the bond market will CRASH. Not a correction...not a slight downturn...but a CRASH!

I always thought that the stock market debacle would precede any bond market debacle. Now I am convinced bonds will be the first market to tumble, and in its tumble, the trigger will be pulled for a stock market dive. The bonds bubble has become even more outrageous than the stock market bubble. The big money departed bonds some time ago...does anybody remember that Buffett exited bonds several months ago? The only people buying bonds en masse are, unfortunately, your grandmother, your parents, your neighbors, and all those who have been conned into believing that bonds are somehow a radically different investment vehicle than stocks. The only true flight to safety.

When the bond market goes, precious metals will roar. The CB's will be powerless to contain PM's as populist demand for the metals will far outweigh CB ability to sell or loan gold into the market. The last and only true flight to safety. CB's will recall gold loans en masse...the gold lease rate will skyrocket well above the extant treasury rates. The gold carry trade will die on the spot. GOld shorts will be running around like chickens with their heads cut off trying to find metal that is simply unavailable at these historically low gold prices.

If you're not on board the gold train yet, then you missed it.

Standard disclaimer:
The act of reposting the above should not be interpreted as agreement with or endorsement of the views contained therein on the part of the perpetrator of said repost. No investment advice is implied or expressed. All investment decisions remain the responsibility of the individual investor. Any attempt to discredit or malign the perpetrator of this repost by authorized and/or unauthorized Kitco content supervisors will be vigorously and systematically resisted, even to the point of mudslinging and/or name calling.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:50
hugo () ID#402151:

12:49

dec gold 302.4
dec silver 534.00

if we get back to 303 the lid will blow

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:49
PH in LA (Repost from K-2) ID#225408:
-

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 04:28
farfel ( Interest Rates Must Rise Now...or PULLING THE GOLD TRIGGER! ) ID#341227:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The real estate market is overheated in most major American cities. Financial corporations are laying off workers in droves ( not downsizing this time but bankruptcy avoidance! ) . Increasing unemployment means less consumption and less investment in 401k's, etc. The dollar is falling far too quickly, inspiring foreign capital to head for home. Contrary to the assertions of JP and other deflationary exponents on K-1, we are about to witness the most amazing STAGFLATION in the history of this country. Pure deflation Not a chance! Can't happen...won't happen! Too many people today with too many AMerican dollars, no matter whether the stock market caves in today or not.

Greenspan knows damn well that there is only one logical direction for interest rates...UPWARD! THe world is engulfed in countries enacting competitive interest rate hikes ( except Japan & America ) . These rate hikes are all designed to save various countries' respective currencies from complete collapse. That's why Greenspan cut a mere 1/4%. He must protect the value of the dollar above and beyond the stock or bond markets themselves. He is protecting the Big Boys who are cash rich and already out of both stock and bond markets. His move was nothing more than a ruse, designed solely to get the last suckers into the bond and stock markets before the Big Boys slam everybody via a much needed interest rate hike! It will appear out of the blue, sooner than later. In the end, the Dollar will remain relatively strong against world currencies as interest rates move up on a competitive basis.

Gold above 300? Ridiculous...try gold above $1000 and then you are entering the right ballpark! If you have a gold stock trading today at $5.00, then that same gold stock will be worth at least $40 after the dust settles. Those who think that CB's will contain gold below 300 until '99 have no comprehension as to the speed at which the global financial system is coming apart. It is a rolling snowball and the CB's priorities must be shifting just as quickly. Concern about containing the gold price? How about concern in getting your loaned gold back? Concern about creating parity for the Euro and Dollar at the start of '99 How about concern in simply protecting the Dollar from plummetting into the depths?

But most importantly, LONG TERM CREDIT must be saved in order to avoid upsetting the most amazing pyramid scheme ever erected in world financial history via an initial 5 billion dollar investment. LTC bet the farm on interest rates rising...and so they must in order to save America's largest financial institutions. How ironic that in order to save some of the major financial institutions in this country, INTEREST RATES MUST RISE! Yet, think about it....if the Fed must choose between saving Chase, Goldman Sachs, etc. vs. saving the little guys in their mutual funds and 401ks, then whose interests do you think they will favor? When interest rates are raised, the bond market will CRASH. Not a correction...not a slight downturn...but a CRASH!

I always thought that the stock market debacle would precede any bond market debacle. Now I am convinced bonds will be the first market to tumble, and in its tumble, the trigger will be pulled for a stock market dive. The bonds bubble has become even more outrageous than the stock market bubble. The big money departed bonds some time ago...does anybody remember that Buffett exited bonds several months ago? The only people buying bonds en masse are, unfortunately, your grandmother, your parents, your neighbors, and all those who have been conned into believing that bonds are somehow a radically different investment vehicle than stocks. The only true flight to safety.

When the bond market goes, precious metals will roar. The CB's will be powerless to contain PM's as populist demand for the metals will far outweigh CB ability to sell or loan gold into the market. The last and only true flight to safety. CB's will recall gold loans en masse...the gold lease rate will skyrocket well above the extant treasury rates. The gold carry trade will die on the spot. GOld shorts will be running around like chickens with their heads cut off trying to find metal that is simply unavailable at these historically low gold prices.

If you're not on board the gold train yet, then you missed it.

Standard disclaimer:
The act of reposting the above should not be interpreted as agreement with or endorsement of the views contained therein on the part of the perpetrator of said repost. No investment advice is implied or expressed. All investment decisions remain the responsibility of the individual investor. Any attempt to discredit or malign the perpetrator of this repost by authorized and/or unauthorized Kitco content supervisors will be vigorously and systematically resisted, even to the point of mudslinging and/or name calling.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:48
Cyclist (Marketbottom) ID#26467:
Copyright © 1998 Cyclist/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
FWIW Cyclical Major market bottom due second week of October.
Wheat/Corn spread is money in the bank.Main thrust of gold
will be three weeks prior to its multi month cycle high.Platinum
to bottom next week ,ready for 450?
Still in pause mode,except for Rangy ,Sgoly and ARZ
Sgoly was 23 in the middle eighties and will perform likewise.
Rangy starting up a mine and usually will have their critiques,
Arz is in the same situation.All trading at their bottoms and
I will sell them when everybody else wants them.
Sold DRooy,Nem,ABX,PDG and will move into Harmony,less hype

Have a nice day.

Disney :Thank you for being an excellent resource to all.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:47
cherokee (@.........the.winds.of.chaos.and.flux..........they's.amux.us.all..........) ID#288232:

the recent paper diaspora is lending credence to
the gold-bug-for-lunch-bunch....

just put in gtc's for dec'99 calls....waiting for
the sellers to make some more mistakes....

houston..........we have lift-off.....
the ssm has cleared the pad and has
made contact with dora and lazarus long......

my darling dora....to me my love...
along with my gold-n-crude calls....

cherokee!;..accumulating.faster.than.a.speeding.bullet...

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:47
Cyclist (Marketbottom) ID#26467:
Copyright © 1998 Cyclist/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
FWIW Cyclical Major market bottom due second week of October.
Wheat/Corn spread is money in the bank.Main thrust of gold
will be three weeks prior to its multi month cycle high.Platinum
to bottom next week ,ready for 450?
Still in pause mode,except for Rangy ,Sgoly and ARZ
Sgoly was 23 in the middle eighties and will perform likewise.
Rangy starting up a mine and usually will have their critiques,
Arz is in the same situation.All trading at their bottoms and
I will sell them when everybody else wants them.
Sold DRooy,Nem,ABX,PDG and will move into Harmony,less hype

Have a nice day.

Disney :Thank you for being an excellent resource to all.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:35
Gollum (DOW -158) ID#43185:
Strange. I must have pulled the wrong lever. I better go back downstairs and check. Now that I think about it, if it wasn't the DOW lever, which one was it?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:33
rich (Cheap Calls) ID#411320:
Glad I loaded up on those cheap $300 gold Calls when they were only
$410 a per contract. Thanks Clinton for having me live up to my
my code name.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:32
THE GOLDEN PROPHET (TO ALL SILVERBUGS!!) ID#372262:
Who wants silver when we're headed for a global DEpression? Silver is only an INflation hedge. GOLD IS BOTH AN INFLATION AND DEPRESSION HEDGE!! BUY GOLD and wait till the reflation for silver!!!
We ain't seen a gold market like this before!!!! Gold will leave everything in the dust, including silver, UNTIL THE REFLATION!!! Buy some real money--BUY GOLD!!!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:32
THE GOLDEN PROPHET (TO ALL SILVERBUGS!!) ID#372262:
Who wants silver when we're headed for a global DEpression? Silver is only an INflation hedge. GOLD IS BOTH AN INFLATIONARY AND DEPRESSION HEDGE!! BUY GOLD and wait till the reflation for silver!!!
We ain't seen a gold market like this before!!!! Gold will leave everything in the dust, including silver, UNTIL THE REFLATION!!!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:28
NightWriter (Contrarian) ID#390415:
Nasdaq -3.5%

XAU +4.5%

Clinton 66%

Starr 42%

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:28
powmain (Straight talk from Mr. Greenspan & RR) ID#21275:
is the kind of garbage that has put the world finical system on the brink of collapse.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:26
Freasyberry (LTCM - How did they do yesterday ?) ID#338418:
If I am short T's and long corporates/high yield , didn't I get killed yesterday? And again Today? Anybody add to discussion. Thanks.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:24
chris (GOLLUM) ID#344207:
PLEASE pull the silver lever to!!!!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:22
moa (Shorts are stubbornly protecting $300...) ID#269128:
should be a titanic struggle or LIFT-OFF! at the close today.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:21
chris (what going on ?) ID#344207:
Why is silver not following gold?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:19
Gollum (DOW -144) ID#43185:
If everyone is ready....

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:19
sharefin (Eavesdropping on Europe) ID#284255:
-
http://www.wired.com/news/news/politics/story/15295.html

If the European Parliament has its way, the lid is about to come off what is reputedly one of the most powerful, secretive, and extensive spy networks in history -- if, in fact, it really exists.
In October, Europe's governing body will commission a full report into the workings of Echelon, a global network of highly sensitive listening posts operated in part by America's most clandestine intelligence organization, the National Security Agency.

Frankly, the only people who have any doubt about the existence of Echelon are in the United States, said Glyn Ford, a British member of the European Parliament and a director of Scientific and Technical Options Assessment, or STOA, a technology advisory committee to the parliament.

Echelon is reportedly able to intercept, record, and translate any electronic communication -- telephone, data, cellular, fax, email, telex -- sent anywhere in the world. The parliamentary report will focus on concerns that the system has expanded and is now zeroed in on the secrets of European companies and elected officials.

Unlike many of the electronic spy systems developed during the Cold War, Echelon is designed for primarily non-military targets: governments, organizations, and businesses in virtually every country, the report said.

According to the STOA report and stories in The New York Times, The Daily Telegraph, and The Guardian, Echelon consists of a network of listening posts, antenna fields, and radar stations. The system is backed by computers that use language translation, speech recognition, and keyword searching to automatically sift through telephone, email, fax, and telex traffic.

The system is principally operated by the NSA and the GCHQ, but reportedly also relies on cooperation with signals intelligence operations in other countries, including the Communications Security Establishment of Canada, Australia's Defense Signals Directorate, and New Zealand's Government Communications Security Bureau.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:17
skinny (Lou Paquette) ID#28994:
The people of Canada always insisted on a socialist economy.
They are now reaping the benefits.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:15
goldfevr (XAU & mining shares holding early gains, 10/1/98.//Good-bye Gold below $300.) ID#434108:
Date: Tue Sep 29 1998 00:19
goldfevr ( Next advance in gold is due now. ) ID#434108:
JSE & XAU both closed near their highs, on Monday.
Since the end of August, there has been a pattern of
surging volume in trading in gold stocks,
coupled with persistent appreciation in mining shares.

Gold is now due to break thru
the mythological barrier of $300.00/oz.,
for good.
Last chance to buy it below $300.00 is...... 'history' .

Return to Kitco Homepage

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:11
powmain (Greenspam double speaking now) ID#21275:
I am smarter than any one I know except WJC. Don't bug me and don't ask stupid questions.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:09
John Disney (RSA stocks ...) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
to all ..
Most of You guys know as much about the south
africans as I do .. and I find that very
gratifying... I love to make money ..
it smells like ... VICTORY .. but
I also like my friends to make money ..
so Don I think it was .. IMVHO ..
Harmony is good .. Anglogold is good
and easy ... Sgoly is good and hard
to buy .. Rangy is starting to look
good .. but not until there is a move
on the London exchange on Rangold
Resources ( which actually went up
$0.10 today ) ..
I really think that DDeeps is now
flying a bit on hype .. but maybe
thats my sour grapes for selling out
too early and switching to harmony
and e-dagga .. but I kept 30,000
options and Im starting to sell those
off also ..
Randfontn is also good but hard to
buy ..

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:09
Gollum (DOW -126) ID#43185:
In a couple of minutes I'm going to give it a REAL yank.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:08
JTF (Erratum) ID#254321:
Given what gold is doing today, I regret not using more powder when I had the chance several days ago. But -- the gold bears may still retaliate.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:07
Lou Paquette (@kitkat - wouldn't it be sad if we resorted to that ) ID#320200:
and the C$ then fell to US two bits - a head of lettuce would go for $5, loaf of bread, $6. But those idiots in Ottawa would keep telling us everything is fine, it's good for the economy!

On second thought, clean the slate and bring on Michael Walker to manage the economy, after all he and the Fraser institute predicted this long ago.

Sorry, getting off topic, started with the currency and has become political. But we are seeing that politics has everything to do with the downward spiral of the canadian economy and disintegrating prosperity.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:07
Gold Dancer (RANGY) ID#377196:
Copyright © 1998 Gold Dancer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Bought some last week but don't like the action. Hugh volume today
and the stock is down.

Polarbear: If you have really sold DROOY for RANGY that has been a
big mistake. DROOY has doubled and Rangy has gone no place. But todays
volume is really worrysome. Why is Rangold performing so badly. What
have you missed or is all this just mis-information on your part?

No offense but it is the worst performing. And now the big volume
when gold goes over $300 vs. Dec.

Is there new gold project failing them? Looks like it. Maybe their
costs are $310 and not $210?

Thanks, GD


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:06
HighRise (BART@Kitco) ID#401460:

Thanks!

HighRise

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:01
Gollum (DOW -137) ID#43185:
I'm tired of wacthing the DOW be down. I'm going to go downstairs and hit the UP lever. I'll be back shortly.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 12:00
Gollum (@jims ) ID#43185:
By inference. Gold and silver generally maintian a loosely correlated gold/silver ratio. When gold goes up by about a percent, silver normally follows by about twice that. When the ratio departs from that there is generally a reason.

If the times when it departs from that is in the overnight futures markets even though the spot hasn't moved much, one grows suspicious. If the pattern repeats over a period of time one grows even more suspicious.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 11:59
JTF (Bear market vs correction, Gold doing nicely, even with dropping markets) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: Surprised to learn my dad's investments were down 20% this year. For over 20 years he has been pro-gold, and he is well-read. He thought that his 'defensive' investments in foreign European equities would do well. 50% Cash and 50% equities right now. I know he still has some gold equities, but the last two years have discouraged even him.

He was surprised that I had not lost money in 1998, and that I believed that we were in a bear market. He, like many others, must be assuming that this is just a correction, and that WJC will overcome his tribulations. He did know about LTCB, but his comment was that they wer just Hedge fund operators that overextended themselves -- not a sign of potential global financial disaster.

Please look at the SP-500 in 10 year graphical form, and you will see that it has a regular cyclical pattern of rallying and leveling off, reaching newer highs on each rally. This time however, the 'correction'/downturn has gone almost all the way back to the beginning of the 1998 rally.

My point is this -- the cyclical rally pattern is probably still intact, and fairly soon the US markets will go up, and the boomers ( and others ) are likely to pile in -- only to find the rally fail. A 'bull trap' for those who naively think the bull market is still intact. The previous cyclic pattern of the market bull gives an estimate of how long this bull trap will last -- I would guess peaking early next year.

Any comments from the Elliot wave theorist when we will have our bear market rally?

Gold is doing very nicely today. Perhaps AG has left gold alone this time so that the dollar can devalue. Perhaps the CB's have bought the gold they need -- for now. Now I regret using more powder. But -- if gold continues to rally in the face of falling worldwide markets, we have our proof the the gold bull has begun. Will be interesting to see how far they can fall before the gold equity rally fizzles.

Of course, if AG sees a real financial crisis, he will do his best to push gold down once more.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 11:54
Gollum (@Steve in TO ) ID#43185:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
That is exactly right. Anticipation of further cuts is helping to hold bond prices up. They are up substantially more than one would expect ( record low rates for long treasuries, despite expected recession or worse, and falling dollar ) because we have global panic pushing even more money into the US bond market.

However....

Consider what happens if rates are being cut by 1/4 point per quarter, but the US dollar is dropping at say, 1% per quarter. The real interest rate for holdiing a US treasury is then a minus 3/4% per quarter than holding an equivalent security in some other country whose currency is either stable or rising.

One of the reasons that US securities were so attractive is that the dollar was rising which made the real rate of return higher than expected.

When the panic slows, and it is percieved that the dollar is declining,
the fit will hit the shan.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 11:52
ravenfire (@Steve in TO) ID#333126:
Copyright © 1998 ravenfire/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
hiya Steve,

I believe that the full moon correlation with stock market crashes might work if Puetz doesn't make a fuss about it on Kitco ( thereby proving the ultimate Puetz contrarian trade ) , his earlier prediction of a major crash in September having expired.

Markets are driven by emotion, agreed. The difficult part is gauging it. When does greed turn to fear? How much must be lost before panic sets in? I've got puts that are currently losing money ( but hopefully should do good when the Aussie market reopens, hehe ) that say the trend is downwards...

On Indonesia, mho is that there will be no revolution until the people there truly forsee that there is no other way out. That has not happened yet. Signs of the authorities losing power there haven't yet manifested ( so my Indonesian friends say, though it's third hand information since what I hear is what they hear from their family back home ) .

events are accelerating. maybe HK will open with mega-losses later today. China might under pressure... some war or other might start in the Middle East ... so many things to watch, so little time...

I love kitco. :- )


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 11:48
EJ (S&P under 1000) ID#229207:
S&P 500 993.31 -23.70 ( -2.33% )

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 11:40
Steve in TO (Ravenfire - I loved your post yesterday about the . . . ) ID#209265:
Copyright © 1998 Steve in TO/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
stupid McDonald's Snoopy craze that is sweeping the world. Reminds me of the Cabbage Patch doll craze that had people fighting in lineups and paying ridiculous prices.

People forget that big moves in markets are driven by emotions, not logic.

October seems to be the month when people are most susceptible to mass, irrational action- to being stampeded, if you will. People on this site keep talking about next Monday being a key date. Well, next Monday ( Oct. 5 ) is also the next date of the full moon. We'll see soon enough whether October turns out to be another panic month like it was last year- and whether the PPT can hold the fort this time!

- Steve

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 11:30
kitkat (Canadians - cut some trees and print) ID#208393:
Why not print paper and buy $US like the Russians?
IMF Warns Russia On Printing Money, Inflation

WASHINGTON, Oct 1 ( Reuters ) - The International Monetary Fund on Thursday warned Russia against printing money to try to revive its economy and said the country needed to improve ties with disgruntled creditors and reform its banking system.

So exactly what controls are in place to control a country's printing press? Roubles are going into $US at a furious pace. Perhaps the Canadian government should cut some trees?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 11:27
Steve in TO (Something people following the Asian crisis haven't . . . ) ID#209265:
Copyright © 1998 Steve in TO/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
been thinking about is the fact that Indonesia may dissolve into civil war or a sort of feudalism where individual islands and ethnic regions become de facto independent from the Jakarta government.

Go to the Strategic Forecasting site ( www.stratfor.com ) and have a look at their latest article on Indonesia. The Straits of Malacca are a key choke point for trade between the Western Pacific and the rest of Asia & Europe. The collapse of Indonesia would lead to the resurgence of piracy in the area, and other countries, particularly, Japan, would have to use their navies to keep the straits safe. This would require changes in the way Japan views its military. The Chaostan site has been talking about this threat for a while.

Jin - are you there, do you think Indonesia will stay intact?

- Steve

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 11:24
ravenfire (bloomberg reports on mutual fund flows) ID#333126:
http://www.bloomberg.com/feature.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 11:24
Goldilocks (About Rangy - Someone several weeks ago posted) ID#377196:
some information about Rangy that got me to write myself a post-it note saying Don't get Rangy. Being an idiot, I didn't note down why it was so undesirable, but I was convinced at the time and wouldn't buy it now. Can anyone identify what that reason might have been? - must have been a good one. And obviously other people have such notes, mental and otherwise, down to influence their buying or not buying it.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 11:23
Lou Paquette (Solution for the Canadian currency crisis) ID#320200:
Tie politician's pay to performance like the private sector does. Deduct failures to meet pre-set standards of performance from their fat salaries and golden pension plans. Fire the Senate. Jail them when caught with their hands in the cookie jar, ( B.C. tax auditors submit false expense reports, well documented by the vancouver sun ) . Stop the billion dollar handouts to special groups.

Do this and much more or the C$ is going to $0.50 US.

I'd also advocate the return of hanging but maybe that's a little harsh.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 11:21
ravenfire (funny, LGB keeps very quiet on market down days) ID#333126:
where's the hordes of 401k investors putting money faithfully in the market month after month now, eh?

all indexes down ... except the XAU .... hmmm... approaching 80 :- )

there was a news report of how much inflows mutual funds had in September. spin, spin and more spin. hmm... i'll go look it up.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 11:18
goldfevr (Japan topples into the abyss) ID#434108:
http://www.afr.com.au/content/981002/world/world1.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 11:17
TheMissingLink (RANGY) ID#373403:
I have been watching many of you talk about this stock and it just sits there dead. Every other stock is fluctuating 20% to 40% while gold is moving between $278 and $315 since April and RANGY does nothing?

What is up with that?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 10:56
zeke (Lying Spin Doctors Still at the Swill) ID#25257:
Even though the Dow and Nasdaq are reluctantly tanking, the Spinmeisters were goading folks to buy Bank Stocks this AM--if you can believe it. After our superb early climb-out in Gold Stocks, my list shows many are selling into this rally. Good thing I saved some dry powder, right Mr. Griddley!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 10:47
jims (Quadruple Top) ID#252391:
So far we have the makings of a Quad Top in the XAU. Four times in the last week we've been here at 78 only to fail. AGAIN?

Gollum, how do you tell if puts are being accumulated.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 10:47
Steve in TO (Gollum - bonds up, dollar down is . . . ) ID#209265:
exactly what you expect after the recent Fed interest rate cut. Lower interest rates drive bond prices up, and foreigners reduce their US investments because of the smaller returns, so they buy less US dollars and the 'price' of US dollars goes down along with reduced demand.

Now it wouldn't seem like a measly 0.25% cut could drive this much of a change, but traders are anticipating future trends, and they are all certain that the Fed will have to introduce further Funds Rate cuts. Thus, a lot of the fluctuations are due to anticipation.

- Steve

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 10:45
goldfevr (a once in a life-time opportunity) ID#434108:
http://router.minot.com/~bohl/history/option/Gold

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 10:39
goldfevr (JSE in up-side breakout of 12-mo. highs) ID#434108:
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^JGAI&d=2y

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 10:32
Digger (CNNfn makes bullish gold comments?) ID#269469:

Popular media notices gold upswing, market instability. This is a good sign.

http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/wires/9810/01/gold_wg/


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 10:28
Grizz (Some computers may not display the name Göre correctly) ID#424394:
It properly should have a two dots or a diaeresis over the o.
Thus it should be Al Göre - as in Hermann Göring.
Yes!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 10:18
POLARBEAR (DURBAN vs. RANDOLD and the winner is......) ID#183109:
Copyright © 1998 POLARBEAR/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
DROOY vs. RANGY

I’m in the middle of a new detailed spreadsheet comparing DURBAN and RANDGOLD.

It is very obvious after seeing the numbers that RANGY is the better buy. I’ll have the spreadsheet posted within the next couple of days after I verify a few final figures. For now, take the following as an approximation:

Mid-1999, price of gold $400

Durban earns 80.6 Million bucks, while RANGY earns 27.4 Million.

So Durban earns THREE times as much, YET DURBAN SELLS FOR ROUGHLY 6 TIMES RANGY’S MARKET CAP! So, RANGY is TWICE as undervalued as Durban….IMO : )

You guys know where my money is going…..

And these figures above do not include MORILA, coming on line in 2000 at a cash cost of around $118 with resources now over 2.2 million...

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 10:04
lakshmi (What's ahead for the upcoming generations) ID#26350:
Copyright © 1998 lakshmi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Communist Party is postering in my town in the good old US of America- recruiting the kids to their chapter meetings. I remember my Dad pointing out to me that the Soviet Communist Party would never grow enough wheat to feed the Russians because communism takes away personal initiative. Also reminded of Ayn Rand's comments about the US of A--if people don't value their freedom enough they loose it. Hope Communism is not the party of choice for the world's young people. I like owning what I earned too much!

Looking at the fund reports ( and US stocks in general ) , people got smart and sold funds in August, not so smart people bought in September. Reporters in the WSJ today calling it the August correction, however we've still got an inverted yield curve and high PE's, which are two ingredients that keep stock markets in check. The other is deflation--if you get all three ingredients, the correction has a tendency to get even bigger.

I can't figure silver out! Regards, Lakshmi

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 09:47
zeke (We have a Major Lift-off) ID#25257:
XAU already up 2.57; BMG up 3/8. ABX up 11/16, and so forth. I think we can see the:Whites of their eyes. Dry powder now in muzzle. Fire when ready Griddley.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 09:42
zeke (We have a Major Lift-off) ID#25257:
XAU already up 2.57; BMG up 3/8. ABX up 11/16, and so forth. I think we can see the:Whites of their eyes. Dry powder now in muzzle. Fire when ready Griddley.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 09:38
POLARBEAR (reliable gold quotes....20 minute delay...) ID#183109:
http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/commodities.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 09:34
JT8D (CNBC) ID#197328:
Reference the countdown clock on CNBC counting down the time to opening of the markets::

Mark Haines just said Why is that clock counting down in hundredths of a second? Looks like the countdown to a bomb.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 09:28
Gollum (GCZ8 302.6 SIZ8 5.440) ID#43185:
At about 9:00 ET, DEC Silver jumped up to align itself with the gold increase. It has now weakened again. It really looks like someone is accumulating puts.

The stock market is now about to open, first day of October '98

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 09:25
Donald (@Zeke) ID#26793:
I am not the best one to answer your question. Perhaps John Disney will reply.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 09:23
EJ (Brazil opens down 3%) ID#45173:
Brazil Bovespa Index ^BVSP 9:09AM 6393 -201 -3.04%

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 09:22
Shek ( Gold Coin Sales Up; Stocks Down; Y2K Fears ) ID#287279:
Copyright © 1998 Shek/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
http://www.cleveland.com/business/lnews/f30coin.htm

Jim Irwin can't help laughing when talking to some of his customers at Shaker Coin Stamp & Jewelry.
As the stock market has become increasingly volatile and the Year 2000 draws nearer, Irwin has seen sales of gold coins soar.
They think Armageddon is coming, Irwin said. My wife and I always think they're crazy. Now we're not so sure.
Well, maybe not Armageddon, but something sure is feeding gold fever: The gold market two months ago saw its lowest prices in nearly 20 years. Investors have stomached double-digit losses in their stock portfolios.
And then there's the Year 2000 issue, which some doomsayers think could turn financial accounts into vapor.
Coin dealers locally and nationwide report a near craze in gold buying. First-time customers. Long-time customers. Rich. Middle-class. Mattress-stuffers. Gen X computer whizzes.
Some people are in disaster mode, agreed Val Holmes, partner at Carat Coin Collectibles in North Olmsted.
It's partly because of the recent stock market drop, Holmes said. Some people lost 10 to 20 percent of their money in a couple of weeks. They got a little scared, and now people want to put money into a sure thing. . . .
Bryan Kissling, senior vice president at Everen Securities Inc. in Westlake, agreed it's good to have 5 percent to 10 percent of holdings in a commodity such as gold to hedge yourself against rampant inflation or some extreme financial crisis. But he said he'd personally recommend energy stocks, which have performed better than gold.
People who bought gold coins 15 years ago have lost at least 20 percent, he said.
Besides, buyers of gold coins don't earn dividends, and buyers have to pay varying commissions. And financial turmoil at all corners of the world increase the possibility that countries such as Russia could sell their reserves, flooding the market to either lower values or hold them in check, Kissling said.
Liquidity and dividends actually make gold stocks more attractive investments, he added.
Still, demand for America's gold coins, the Eagle, is so high that employees at the U.S. Treasury minting facility at West Point, N.Y., are working overtime and weekends.
Bill Miloher of Executive Coin Co. in Stow, northeast of Akron, said his sales of gold coins have increased tenfold in the last six months. Some people buy one at a time, some ten a time, one guy just bought $300,000 worth, he said. He doesn't look for sales to slow until prices reach at least $400 an ounce, compared with the current price hovering around $300.


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 08:33
wert (Dabchick re: 6:02 posting) ID#243250:
I find your analysis very thought provoking please keep all of us posted.
However the likely hood of these two actions ocurring after last night's action in Asia & Europe seem remote. The collary seems more likely. Enjoy the day.............off to stand on someones shoulders etc,etc..... ( :={o )

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 08:27
wert (Dabchick re: 6:02 posting) ID#243250:
I find your analysis very thought provoking please keep all of us posted.
However the likely hood of these two actions ocurring after last night's action in Asia & Europe seem remote. The collary seems more likely. Enjoy the day..off to stand on someones shoulders etc,etc... ( :={o}..

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 08:25
zeke (@donald) ID#25257:
With the rand ratio back above 6, how should we ( in US ) position ourselves in the SA mining shares--assuming this continues for a while.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 08:22
Donald (Brazil September dollar outflow soars vs August) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981001/hg.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 08:20
Gollum (VERY SEVERE STORM WARNINGS!!!) ID#43185:

Globex strongly down - - continuation of yestrday, only worse

Bonds up, but dollar stiffly down - - what is wrong with this picture?

Metals up - - but silver still looks very weak


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 08:20
BillD (@ XENNA...Thanx for the URL) ID#258427:
Sure is nice WHEN BARTS FRAMES work...but I bookmarked your URL

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 08:16
Donald (South African rand weakens, Polish, Czech currencies on the ropes today also.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981001/e4.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 08:13
Gollum (@Cage Rattler) ID#43185:

Oh, yes. Many will actually benefit as flight money comes rushing back home. Some currencies and economies have'nt done too badly. Take India for example. Their rules and regulations have kind of insulated them from the strong dollar hurricane. Consequently they will be more secure as the hurricane winds down.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 08:11
zeke (@rhody) ID#25257:
rhody,
How about those Lease Rates? Someone once wrote:As the song goes: What a difference a day makes...24 little hours...
This thing is in resonance, flip-flopping on a daily basis. Wait 'til all the players have taken a hit before counting the cards. Some call it blackjack. Besides, my SA stocks don't show a great deal of concern about lease rates.
What's your call for Today?
Thanks. Ezekial

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 08:08
Xenna (Reliable Spot Gold from Amsterdam Options Exchange) ID#133136:
http://www.aex-optiebeurs.nl/koers/GD.htm

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 08:06
EJ (The myth of the long term mutual fund investor) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
August's redemptions, or the amount of money flowing out of equity funds, surpassed the level following the October 1987 crash, when panicked investors pulled $7.5 billion out of stock funds.

Stock funds see $11.2b pullback in Aug., ICI says

By Lynnley Browning, Globe Staff, 10/01/98

Unnerved by Wall Street's summer gyrations, mutual fund investors yanked a hefty $11.2 billion out of stock funds in August, the first month in eight years that money has flowed out of such funds.

The withdrawals by fund shareholders, reported yesterday by the Investment Company Institute, were the highest ever, and came as this decade's bull market ran out of steam. August's redemptions, or the amount of money flowing out of equity funds, surpassed the level following the October 1987 crash, when panicked investors pulled $7.5 billion out of stock funds.

Despite global market volatility, however, investors began buying again in September, according to some early reports.

The data from ICI, a trade group, suggests that contrary to what many market watchers suggest, fund investors do not simply sit tight when stocks take a roller-coaster ride. Instead, they jump into action, not only shoveling money into more conservative investments such as bond and money market funds, but dumping stock funds as well. Money market funds attracted a record $50.9 billion in August, topping the previous record in January 1992.

Investors have poured money into stock funds during the 1990s, reaping strong returns, helping to fuel history's longest bull market, and sparking the fund industry boom.

Like August, September has had its share of market turmoil, including a 2.9 percent drop yesterday in the Dow Jones industrial average. But many indexes ended up last month. After losing 14.6 percent in August, the Standard & Poor's 500 index, a proxy for the broad market, gained 6.2 percent in September.

Pointing to that relative improvement, mutual fund companies said September sales were on track to reverse August's activity. Still, investors, who entered September smarting from the Dow's 6.4 percent drop on Aug. 31 began buying stock funds only in the last 10 days, fund firms said.

Boston-based Fidelity Investments, the nation's largest fund firm, estimated net sales ( which is total sales minus redemptions ) of stock funds at $500 million in September after outflows of $1.8 billion in August. Bond funds attracted $500 million, more than three times August's level, spokesman Scott Beyerl said. But net sales of ultrasafe money market funds slowed dramatically to $500 million from $4.5 billion in August.

''Investors are returning somewhat to the equity market,'' Beyerl said, adding that growth funds, which invest mostly in large-company stocks, and sector funds, which concentrate on a particular industry, were the most popular at Fidelity.

Overall, stock funds took in a healthy $19.3 billion in September, according to estimates by Mutual Fund Trim Tabs, a fund tracking firm in Santa Rosa, Calif.

Both August and September were volatile months on Wall Street, which raises the question of why investors dumped stock funds in one month but slowly came back the next. The ICI data may suggest that investors will shrug off volatility if the market is generally heading upward, as it did last month relative to August. By contrast, August's gyrations drove market indexes below their July peaks.

For their part, fund houses spent August preparing for higher redemptions, cheap buying opportunities, or both. The average equity fund had 6 percent of its assets in cash at the end of August, up from 5.2 percent the month before, ICI said.

Overall, the mutual fund industry lost 8.2 percent of its assets in August, finishing that month with net assets of $4.73 trillion. Stock funds saw 15.9 percent of their assets, or $447 billion, erased, mostly because of lower stock prices, not redemptions.

Mutual funds hold around 19 percent of all publicly traded US stocks, which makes them significant players during market swings. Still, August's stock fund outflows represented less than half a percent of stock funds' total assets, ICI said. By contrast, outflows in October 1987, when the market plunged 22.6 percent, equaled 4.5 percent of assets.
-------
Once mutual fund investors smell panic, they will panic too. No cushion from Joe Sheeple. He may be dumb enough to sell into the downturn rather than taking his profits at the top, but he's not dumb enough to stay in and lose all of his money.
-EJ

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 08:05
BillD (MR. KITCO...OH BART.....) ID#258427:
I know the discussion site is going to die today...but could you make the frames work please....tia...

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:54
Gollum (@Mike Sheller ) ID#35571:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Japan sees deflation, gold sees deflation, indeed the globe sees deflation, because of the high US real interest rate of return. Thge resulting differential and spreads allowed BIG money hedge funds to suck the life out of foreign currencies and economies, gold and other commodities, and the operation of various carry and leasing schemes.

Even as US money supply expanded.

That spring has now been wound as tight as it can go.

Once the dollar starts to drop, and the bond/treasury market starts to unwind deflation is over.

Japan, gold, indeed everyone sees deflation while the life is beeing sucked out of them.

The hot money hurricane is running out of fuel. Once gold gets down to near the cost of production the gold carry trade becomes unprofitable. We saw gold over $800 to begin with now sucked down to less than $300. We saw Japan as king of the financial world in the 80's now staring depression in the face. Once the globe is broke there is no more fuel for the cyclone.

The time is at hand.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:53
Auric (Portugal Halts Trading) ID#257312:

Market down 15%. Portugal's leading private
bank off 24%.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981001/fq.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:52
arby (@ ravenfire) ID#72316:
New limits a couple of months ago---27

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:48
kapex (Gee, I wonder if the 4th wave is finally over! Or was it the 2nd wave,) ID#275194:
no the 3rd of the 3rd. Oh well, whatever, its waving bye bye to the stock market right now. Hindsight will give us the proper count. All possibilities were pointing down anyway!
Elliot wave on the XAU: The XAU appears to have made a 5 wave up to wave 1, then a A-B-C to less than a .382 retracement for wave 2, then a wave 1 up, with an A-B-C for wave 2, all of the 3rd. IMHO the XAU is set to explode on the upside.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:48
MoReGoLd (@AU AU AU ) ID#348129:
YES, we broke the almighty 300. Dec. 301.90 +2.90

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:44
Speed (Suspicious) ID#29048:
Bloomberg tv is another good place for spot quotes early in the day.

Europe, Asia, the U.S. are all depressed. AG didn't give the junkies enough of a fix. Somebody should open a clinic for margin addicts. Time for gold to shine!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:41
Gollum (@ravenfire) ID#35571:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I would say we are getting very close. October has been associated with crashes in the past. This may be no exception.

The stock market decline really hasn't been too bad. Many people were concerned about p/e ratios and looking for a correction despit Abbey Cohen long before the decline started. So it wasn't entirely unexpected.

Indeed, the broad market has been declining steadily since the end of March. In not too disorderly a fashion. The sharpest drop being that 519 point thing followed by fairly large size rises.

But....the bond market crash looks to be unexpected. Long treasuries are at RECORD LOW rates. With global recession and declining dollar staring us in the faces.

The month of doom is here!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:40
rhody (@ BUFFORD: Every good sport should be part owner of a soccer) ID#411440:
club.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:39
ravenfire (on globex limit moves) ID#333126:
sorry. i seem to have been mistaken. 10% & 20% seem to be the limit moves. 20% being limit for the day. hmm...

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:38
Ersel (@ Suspicious....) ID#230376:

We're there now......lots of hedge funds are marked to the market in commodities. When getting a margin call it is due NOW.....or liquidation.....or if you really owe , big time, you get bailed out !!!!!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:36
ravenfire (a LOT of red in european markets) ID#333126:
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

getting increasingly interesting.

US$ down, gold+silver slightly up, Globex down ...

don't think I've ever seen Globex down 2100 points before.
hmm... look over at http://www.cme.com/clearing/spex/csq-070.htm

- it seems to have limit movements of 1500 points. what gives?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:36
vhale (APH - what in the world do we do today?) ID#424424:
What's your calls? Always grateful for advice.....

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:36
Suspicious (Correction !) ID#287312:
That would make margin calls from today fall on Tuesday Oct. 6th.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:33
Suspicious (Margin calls Oct. 4th ) ID#287312:
We could easily fall into serious margin call territory today. Fed margin calls 3 days later would begin the serious tumble.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:29
JTF (Bull market in cigars? Is it smoking, as Jim Carrie would say?) ID#254321:
suspicious: I'll bet that Castro is making a fortune, and having a good laugh about their uses.

Reminds me of my visits to Castroville in Calif. where so much effort is made in coming up with new uses for artichokes.

Bet Fidel's got his own list for new uses for Cigars.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:26
jims (To Gollum) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Your 07:00 was so originally insightful that I took the liberty to forward it on email to my non Kitcoite friends and family. They'll wonder what the heck it means. I titled it Beware this Scenerio

South African golds up 7-8% eclipsing their July peaks at 1165. Rand back down to 5.98 to the dollar.

Do we get the slam dunk at today's close? Gold is poking its nose over $300 where it doesn't belong. It shouldn't be doing that.....

I think the concern over Silver, while warrented in the short term, should be made in the context that silver has moved 20 odd percent since its lows. An equivlent move would have put gold at $325. The Platinum group metals are lagging as well. I should think the attention wouldn't be with the industrial metals at this time, on this day, given the fall in stock markets and the implications that has for industrial production.

I also believe lease rates can be low if nobody wants to lease. I should think that strategy may be slightly suspect and viewed as potentially explosive to its undertakers.

I suspect we'll see noise about European interst rate cuts here pretty soon.

Brazil is expected to devalue after the elections this weekend.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:23
Suspicious (Lewenski ( probe ) cost 4 million dollars) ID#287312:
I didn't know cigars had gotten so high : )

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:19
ravenfire (bond puts anyone? (Gollum?)) ID#333126:
when I last asked about the possibility of speculating in bond puts, Gollum advised me to wait for the yield to drop further.

back then the 30-year T-bill yield was 5.17%. now, i see http://cbs.marketwatch.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/squote?source=htx/http2_mw&ticker=$TYX quoting it at below 5%

Gollum, is it worth a punt *now*? Dec98 puts? hmm.... mighty tempting...

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:18
Suspicious (Speed: Thanks for that spot gold link) ID#287312:
Europe is having one lousy market day Hu ?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:16
JTF (Logging off -- Must prepare for my other life outside the Aether.) ID#254321:
Should be some more anti - WJC rumors coming out today, with more Kennethe Starr papers coming out tomorrow The Linda Tripp tapes included, IMHO -- Monica's spoken words may have an impact.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:10
JTF (Makes sense: Dollar drops, interest rates down. Then dollar drops,interest rates rise.) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gollum: There could be a delay between the dropping dollar and rising interest rates. Takes a while for the financial market to shift from bullish treasuries to bearish treasuries, since confidence in the US dollar is probably more basic than confidence in the US markets.

But -- if confidence in the US dollar fades, look out below for the US dollar -- and be ready for a fantastic gold bull Tsunami. For a time, anyway. AG will not be able to stem the hemhorrage of the US dollar if it really gets going, though he will try to prop up the dollar short term go using gold derivatives. Eventually the gold bull will be so strong that even AG will not be able to stop it. Could be months from now, though.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:10
Cage Rattler (@Gollum: Will any bond markets in the world escape the US effects?) ID#33184:


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:09
Speed (Spot gold at 299.80 half an hour ago) ID#29048:
http://quote.yahoo.com/m5?a=1&s=XAU&t=USD

December futures at 302.40 and rising..


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:07
Mike Sheller (Gollum) ID#347447:
what if there is an out and out deflation and US interest rates go to 1 or 1/2% ( as has happened already in Japan ) ? could not bond prices be reduced by half, yet rates have still gone DOWN?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:07
mole (@robh thank you for the posting info) ID#350145:
i got fully invested over the last six weeks. as i have posted before i feel the hugh recent buying of coins will go a long way toward muting short sellers. to jtf: in 1987 pegasus wts went from about .20 to 5.25. many of us in alaska made that play sucessfully. it was short and sweet.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:04
Robh (Mole Gold must be Dec Futures rather than spot) ID#407135:
GOld is Dec not spot

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:04
EJ (World markets now pricing in the collapse of the Japanese economy) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
and of Latin American economies and all that this implies -- huge US investment losses and loss of export income.

Evidence of this will be rallies following hopeful pronouncements that the IMF will bail out Latin Am. However, the market has become jaded about the effectuality of IMF and worldbank bailouts, just as it does not believe interest rate decreases are a viable solution to world deflationary events, so the rallies will be weak.

Another down day today. My sense is that we are in for a series of three or four down days before the market finds the right price for stocks in this newly gloomy environment.
-EJ

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 07:00
Gollum (@JTF) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You said:

The US dollar is dropping, and the financial markets are not responding in the usual defensive manner. That must be telling us something, but I don't know what.

Let me address this issue. Basically the foreign markets as well ae the US equities market are tanking. Flight money is rushing to US bonds and treasuries. This is building into an even more extremely explosive position than before since the dollar is dropping. It's the big blow off before the drop.

Very bullish for gold.

When the bond market collapses there will come the deluge of dollars and financial chaos larger than anything we've seen yet. The bond market is capatilized some 200 times and more the the capitalization of the equity market.

Sharp rise in rates, sharp drop in dollar, sharp run up in gold and commodity prices.

Booms are always followed by busts. We are in the final stages of a bond boom.

The writing is on the wall.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:59
JTF (Bond market crash? Any historical comparisons come to mind?) ID#254321:
Gollum: If the market decline remains orderly, gold equities will probably do reasonably well, since gold bullion will be stable or rise. What worries me is a disorderly, rapid decline in the US markets. Even a dropping dollar is not enough to insulate gold equities from a market panic of some kind. Good thing only the pros will be panicing, and we still have the boomer cushion.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:57
Robh (Mole re night prices ) ID#407135:
try this for night prices http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/dbcfiles/market_monitor.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:52
BUFFORD (rhody***congratulations on your part ownership of greek soccer club) ID#253246:
Now does TVX know to handle public relations in Greece or what

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:49
Gollum (Severe storm warnings...) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Globex increasingly down, bonds up, dollar down, metals up ( silver still weakliy up ) , oil mixed.

Before the sudden rise in silver these last few days there were many mornings when silver futures would mysteriously rise in the overnight markets. Especially under cover of rising gold prices. It was as though someone was methodically and quietly accumulating calls in anticipation of a big silver buy.

Now I see the opposite happening. Perhaps someone is accumulating puts?

Bonds are going up....and the dollar is going down. How long before the foreign flight money begins to realize that if the dollar is going down they aren't really getting the interest they think they are?

You thought stock amrket crashes are bad, there is absolutely nothing to compare to a bond market crash.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:49
mole (s@p futures still falling as i sit here-long bond still rising) ID#350145:
any updates on price of gold and silver, still can't find at night?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:47
Carl (As wealth is lost and credit dollars vanish, what will the reserve banks do?) ID#341189:
Looks like we are ready for panic #2, which will be much worse than #1 because the relief rally will be seen to be a bear trap. The question which has been discussed here in the past is what will the reserve banks do? I suggest that we will see unpresidented actions to indemnify losses by private parties world wide in an attempt to keep credit from vanishing.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:47
STUDIO.R (@ Ban Da' Buck.........) ID#119358:
I'm very surprised that this movement has taken sooooooo long to develop.....especially in central and eastern Asia. The U.S. will be very lucky if it gets outta' this mess with bucks still circulating in Central and South America...they should fall back to this maintainable position. In Asia, sorry sir, we only take the golden yen and Chinese Express....and sometimes the Euro Express!!!

In Europa......sorry sir, we only take the golden euro or the Euro Express or goooooooooold. we do like gold.

GO GOLDBUGS!!! bbmon. bayou.bound.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:47
JTF (Gold vs the Yen/Nikkei 225) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
John Disney: It does seem different this time. Perhaps gold will continue going up despite the dropping Nikkei 225. If I was more confident of this, I could have made enough money in gold equities in the last 3 weeks to cover all my losing trades since the end of the gold rally in 1993-1994. All I have actually done so far is break even precious metals wise since January.

Perhaps if the dollar/gold carry trade is unraveling, the dollar/yen carry trade will too. That should mean US dollar down relative to gold, and US dollar down realative to the Yen. As I recall the dollar has been dropping relative to the Deutschmark, which is interesting given the new leader they have. Perhaps there is a EURO/dollar carry trade developing, despite the EURO-bearish news we are picking up. The EURO, as the new 'kid on the block' may be getting preferential treatment. The EUROpeans certainly have lots of US dollars to sell, like Japan and China.

It may be my basic suspicous nature, but I am worried about Communist China, Japan, and South America financial/market troubles doing a number on the US equities markets, gold equities included. All depends on whether the US dollar continues to drop, thus tending to push up the price of gold.

One last item -- I also get nervous when the US dollar drops -- shades of 1987. Did have a nice gold equities rally for those that were nimble and gutsy, before everything crashed. No signs of rising interest rates to indicate a financial crisis in the US dollar -- interesting, isn't it? The US dollar is dropping, and the financial markets are not responding in the usual defensive manner. That must be telling us something, but I don't know what. Unless -- the dollar is expected to rally -- again. More flight to safety coming, but this time the dollar and gold both go up?

But this time flight to safety may be only to US financial markets, tempered by what foreign investors think of the WJC XXXGate scandals.

Interesting times. I agree with Panda. Gold is looking better than it has in years. But -- is there a torpedo heading our way we do not see, and are all equities worldwide about to go under? Hard to say, but it certainly does suggest that we should keep most of our powder dry. Lots of opportunity to make money in gold stocks, as our recession gathers strength. And US dollar inflation will return -- eventually. Gold will be thousands of dollars an ounce by 2010-2015.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:46
Cage Rattler (S&P 500 DEC98 1004.00 -2200) ID#33184:


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:44
Fred(@Vienna) () ID#185448:
Last post for today:
One of the worst days for european bourses, I remember!

Go Gold!
Take care, brothers.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:42
Fred(@Vienna) () ID#185448:
I would have been nervous also in his position.

Remember a talking head in German TV, it was in very early July, when they seriously discussed, if the DOW or the DAX would penetrate 10.000 first. This guy said, the DAX, as it would have more potential. Maybe we will see the DAX fall through 4000 one of the next days.

One side of the coin makes me very glad, as my opinion concerning the markets have turned out to be right.
The other side is: The possible implications of this crisis make me very very worried.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:42
Mike Sheller (Observation of the night) ID#347447:
EJ in his :07, re the new U.S. $20 bills:

Out of this context, this well known and trusted point of distribution, the local ATM, the bill looked like nothing more than a piece of paper with numbers printed on it.

Bingo.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:41
Xenna (Spot Gold just hit $300 in Europe) ID#133136:
No text

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:34
rhody (@ Dabchick: re LEASE RATES for gold and silver: Thank you.) ID#411440:
Copyright © 1998 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
One month gold lease rates are still comfortably above 1% @ 1.37.
This precursor of the gold bull is still positive.

Silver on the other hand, does not look as good. Lease rates here
are still falling for one month silver, indicating increasing
liquidity in the speculative market. Not good for silver.
But the price is still slowly firming. Either the shorts are
leery of shorting any precious metal right now, or we have a
bull trap building, and silver is going to get hit. One year silver
is still at prohibitive rates and rising. That may indicate more
producer hedging. The pattern for 3 month and 6 month silver leases
is still quite high, too high for silver carry. So my first
impression of speculators backing away from one month borrowing
may be correct. What are these guys going to do when there is no
silver left to borrow? Answer: they are going to try to buy that
which is no longer there.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:33
Donald (@Fred-Vienna) ID#26793:
I saw Barton being interviewed on TV yesterday when he made that comment. He was clearly nervous, his body seemed to squirm and he was reluctant to answer directly. He looks even more worried than his words relate.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:31
Fred(@Vienna) () ID#185448:
Remember: Euro-CB has a lot of two things: USD and Gold.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:28
Fred(@Vienna) () ID#185448:
Donald:
From your 6:15 citation, I like the following passage most:

``I'm half frightened and half bearish,'' Barton Biggs, the influential chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, told
CNBC cable television.

``I think we are still in a bear market. There is still a chance we'll have a rally that is going to last a couple of weeks and take up
another five to 10 percent before we plunge into the abyss.''

Icecubes ahead.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:28
Donald (Nissan Motors has loss of 76 billion yen on securities.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981001/ce.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:27
Auric (Europe Tumbling) ID#257312:

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:26
Cage Rattler (Dollar/mark just broken below 1.65 !) ID#33184:


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:25
Greenstone Gold (Speed (Ban dollar, circulate gold) ID#428232:

Good on ya Boris....

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:25
Fred(@Vienna) () ID#185448:
Re My 6:08
Penetration successful. Now no belt will keep these pants up.
Buy gold.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:15
Donald (Asian crisis zaps Europe today) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981001/eu.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:14
Speed (Ban dollar, circulate gold) ID#29048:
-
October 1, 1998
Yeltsin Says Dollar Should Be Banned In Russia - Reports

Dow Jones Newswires
MOSCOW -- Russian President Boris Yeltsin, whose newly formed cabinet is
introducing Soviet-style currency controls, said Thursday he favors banning the use of dollars in Russia, news services reported.

Yeltsin told the Interfax news agency that he favored a ruble backed by gold reserves, and said the Russian central bank should seriously work on the idea.

Later, Yeltsin denied earlier reports that he supports plans to ban free dollar trading in Russia. The idea of limiting the free market in foreign currencies in Russia was raised during a meeting between Yeltsin and
Eduard Rossel, governor of the Ural's region of Sverdlovsk.

I didn't support the idea of prohibiting the dollar from freely circulating in Russian territory, Yeltsin was quoted as saying by Interfax.

Recently, some Russian politicians, including Rossel, have called for severe restrictions on the dollar's circulation to limit the run on the ruble.

The meeting ( of Yeltsin and Rossel ) covered various subjects, including this one ( the dollar circulation ban ) but in no way was this the main point of the debate, Yeltsin's spokesman Dmitry Yakushkin was quoted as saying.

Later, Yeltsin also had a telephone conversation with Viktor Geraschenko,
the Chairman of the Russian central bank, but they didn't talk about banning the dollar from circulation, Yakushkin said.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:10
Gollum (Definitely NO reversal) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Yesterday it looked like there would be at least a slight reversal this today, but not this morning.

Globex down, bonds up, dollar down, PM's up, oil slightly up.

Silver is looking weak. I've got a baaad feeling about silver. It's not keeping up with gold. The log is not going with the current as fast as it should.

Bonds as a safe haven? I've got a very baaaaad feeling about that. Especially with the dollar nosing over and starting down the Nikkei trail. They may do OK for a while yet, but a bond boom is followed by a bond bust just like any other boom.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:08
Fred(@Vienna) () ID#185448:
Copyright © 1998 Fred(@Vienna)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Austrias Stock-Index ATX probably penetrates the magic 1000-point-line ( guess what direction... ) . This is the lowest level since Jan 1996 and a harsh freefall since in May it peaked over 1600.
Know some guys n´gals, who are fully invested in Austrian Stocks, because it is so safe. With very little exceptions they are still invested ( Fully... ) . They get nervous, all the gains of the last twoandahalf years are - äh - somewhat reduced. P/E-ratios have reached a level that makes me already think about investing a leetle. But the time aint right yet. I caught the golden knife while falling - this time I wait until it hits the floor.
If the Dollar continues the decline we will see a ( competetive ) devaluation of euro-currencies. Dont underestimate Duisenberg and the cajones of the pre-Euro.

BTW:
The fix Exchange-rates between Euro and the various european currencies will be published the 31st Dec 1998, 11.30 am MEZ. That means that from Jan 1 99 all bank-transactions are ( also ) nominated in Euros. Means that the Euro is fact then, the printed money will be circulated later.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:04
jims (London gold gets to $299.65 . . . ) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
than backs off to $298.45 - close but no cigar.

NIck Hastings on the European Money Wheel on CNBC commented that moenly is runningfrom one investment to another looking for a place to hide, but can't find one . . . . When he says the word gold in his comments - gold will have CLOSED over $300.

Central Banks on full alert to shoot to kill any bull sighted. Who would bluy today after Friday's smashing - only a few odd lot shorts running for cover. Like a bunch of children playing hide and seek, creeping up in the still darkness on the central banks at the watch over $300 gold.

How does the drill go Gollum - up in the London season, then press down into the NY Openings . and crunch her ( gold ) if the stock market is weak .. . I'm waiting for the new movie..

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:02
Silverbaron (kuston) ID#288295:

Look at the chart of DM and SF in terms of US dollars from 1995. It appears that both are just approaching a long-term trend line. A break of this long term trend would be serious, but things could easily go in the opposite direction, and also with strength. Roll the dice.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 06:02
Dabchick (PH in LA re the LTCM scam) ID#258195:
Copyright © 1998 Dabchick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Your 00:12 which reported the posting on USAGold by Friend of ANOTHER reminded me of the old chestnut about how the Rothschilds scooped the London Stock Exchange after the battle of Waterloo in 1815........you know it I expect..........Rothschild has courier pigeon at Waterloo and makes sure everyone in LSE knows he has. Battle rages and no-one knows who's winning.........pigeon arrives in Rothschilds pigeon loft at LSE and he immediately sells everything...........panic........all assume Wellington defeated by Napolean..........all prices drop through the floor........and Rothschilds acolytes buy evertthing. Rothschild now richest financier in Europe.

1998 version as told by Friend of ANOTHER.......A Greenspan ( =Wellington ) fights currency battle.......tells his Big Boys in Commercial Banks to lend lots to LTCM as they will make killing if thay bet, against all expectations, that dollar will win. Banks don't want to be embarrassed by making so much, so ask Greenspan to engineer lull in dollar battle..........dollar falls..........Big Boys from Banks ride in on Greenspans orders and buy LTCM cheap............................................................... ( Still to come..........dollar battle enters final stage, rallies sharply...........value of LTCM [now owned by Big Boys] rises sharply .......... US Banks now richest financiers in World )

They say we never learn anything from history........so Friend of ANOTHER must be right.

P.S. Here is gold input..........If the dollar index rises above its 27Aug high of 115.8 on the Bank of England index and reaches 120.0, and gold falls on the Dabchick gold index below its January 9th 1998 intra-day low of 67.5 to 60.0............then if these two events happen together, gold will fall to $226. ( Sorry Glenn, but you still lose your bet, cos you said $225. )

Regards............Dabchick

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 05:54
Gollum (@Ersel ) ID#43349:
And H bombs.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 05:53
Gollum (@kuston ) ID#43349:
If and when the dollar crashes, it won't be a matter of bonds not being to rise it will be more like how fast and how far to run. When the bond markets unwind they are going to drop faster than a Japanese stock market.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 05:50
Ersel (jims) ID#230376:

close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 05:48
jims (London Gold $299.25) ID#252391:
How close do you want to get -

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 05:41
Ersel (ASA.....) ID#230376:

crusty, are you still long ASA calls ?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 05:28
Steve in TO (Dirt - Steve Kaplan hasn't updated his site because . . . ) ID#287337:
he's Jewish and the High Holy Days ( Yom Kippur ) have been going on since Sun.. Yom Kippur was yesterday, so he should be back online today or tomorrow.

BTW- the old Yiddish saying about sell Yom Kippur is proving to be true, isn't it! The mood of news reports has changed palpably since yesterday evening- this will lead to further financial meltdown as fear finally moves to the forefront over greed among all the non-Kitco-reading sheep who are unprepared.

- Steve

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 05:24
kuston (John Disney - Advance Get and DM/SF) ID#273227:
Are you tracking the DM or SF with Advance Get? I'm trying to figure out what to do with a US Bond fund I have. If the dollar crashes, I don't see how the Bonds will continue to rise.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 05:22
Nicodemus (Hello Beamer where you gettin your POG data? Can't seem to get tonights spot on) ID#335379:
anything I got. Thanks.
Nicodemus
PS. Nice car, Are you in Bavaria?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 05:17
Nicodemus (Hello Cherokee Sir: and a good early morn to you as well.) ID#335379:
Could you please sir, offer some reco's for the oil play ? I have watched this game from a political and mega game playing point of view but do not have good stock reco's for investing. Please share some of the old wisdom. Peace pipe in hand to you.
Nicodemus

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 05:12
Steve in TO (Japanese Financial Crisis) ID#287337:
Copyright © 1998 Steve in TO/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved


Japan Slowly, Slowly Slips Into the
Abyss

Market value of bank holdings of equity now less than book value

The Japanese economy, the world's second largest, appears to be on the brink of depression.

A flurry of dreadful economic data yesterday revealed a further collapse in household income, retail sales, housing starts and industrial production.

This portrait of an economy already in recession and rapidly decelerating helped drive the benchmark Nikkei 225 index of stock down 3 per cent to a 12-year low at 13,597, on a day when Japan's corporate sector closed its books for the first six months of the fiscal year.

The market was further undermined by the surprise decision by Moody's, the US ratings agency, to downgrade the debt of Nomura, the biggest and most powerful of the Japanese brokers.

Many companies which value their equity portfolios at market rates will have to record accounting losses on their holdings, warned analysts. Banks will also suffer huge paper losses.

The losses on equities will be very significant for groups such as the trading companies and steel companies which have large portfolios, warns Kathy Mitsui, strategist at Goldman Sachs in Tokyo. Some will have to book huge losses that could wipe out their entire operating profits.

At yesterday's Nikkei level the market value of portfolios held by the top 19 banks was some ¥4,600bn ( £20bn ) below their book value, said Yoshinobu Yamada, an analyst at Merrill Lynch. At these levels only Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi is recording a profit, he says.

Today, the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey is published, and is expected to show a further sharp deterioration of business sentiment. Yesterday's data underlined the impression that the economy was entering a downward spiral. Production cuts are leading to lower overtime and take-home pay, which is undermining retail sales, causing higher inventories and forcing further reductions in output.

Consumer confidence continued to crumple. Manufacturing sector overtime collapsed an annual 16.5 per cent in August, while average pay declined 4.8 per cent, the biggest fall since January 1971 when the Labour Ministry began collecting statistics. The fall in take-home pay hit retail sales, which in department stores during the month dropped 4.3 per cent year on year. Housing starts dropped 11.4 per cent year on year.

Industrial output dropped 8.5 per cent year on year, the 10th consecutive month that production has fallen. Inventories fell 0.5 per cent from July, but the Ministry of International Trade and Industry warned they remained at a high level.

The government was yesterday reported to be considering increasing the scale of tax cuts and providing additional spending in a supplementary budget. However, analysts pointed out that many local governments were already so indebted that they could not afford to spend more. Public sector construction orders fell year on year by 14.7 per cent in August. Bureaucrats believe most tax cuts would be saved by anxious consumers.

The Financial Times, October 1, 1998

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 05:11
John Disney (READ YOUR POSTS .. FELLA ) ID#24135:
For Kuston ..
I refer you to Kapex posting ..

Date: Wed Sep 30 1998 22:47
kapex ( Interesting analysis from Tom Joeseph of
TTI. ) ID#218222:
Password in Capitals WAVE5, In caps again TTI.
http://markets.tradingtech.com/Financials/SP/SPDaily/SPD/SPD_0.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 05:09
kuston (I found it.) ID#273227:
Sorry - haven't read 9.30 yet.


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 05:06
John Disney (Morning Mantra ..) ID#24135:
Man Alive .. IF Harmony breaks FIVE
Pick up sticks .. we gonna see SIX
Dont be LATE .. next stop is EIGHT

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 05:05
kuston (John Disney - where would I find this? please) ID#273227:
Copyright © 1998 kuston/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 02:21

John Disney ( Advanced GET ) ID#24135:

To All

Please do see Tom Joseph's analysis on the sp500. This

is one guy I would NEVER go against mainly because he

has no axe to grind and no agenda other than making

money with his software .. which is the BEST.

If HE says that the sp500 is looking at a failed 5th

wave down or a double bottom .. better listen IF you're

interested in profits.

Also .. see his chart on ASA .. perfect .. target

top of wave 4 down or 27 .. it was there for all to see.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 05:02
Cage Rattler (Dollar hitting new lows versus German mark ) ID#33184:


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 04:59
Auric (Japan's MOF Wants Short-Sale Curbs) ID#257312:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981001/ef.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 04:58
John Disney (Son of Morning Reflections ) ID#24135:
To all ..
Jse Golds up 65 .. Rand weak to 6.02 ..
If Harmony breaks $5 .. we will see $6 very quickly..
I hope.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 04:55
John Disney (Morning Reflections ..) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
to all ..
For those interested in gold price as a function of
real rates ..
Yes it is .. I used to use 4 % real as the break
point but it has shifted lower I think .. NEGATIVE
rates over a sustained period will drive gold to the
moon .. as in the 70s.
The other side of the coin is the rate of increase
in the cost of obtaining an incremental oz of gold.
Prior to 1980, I used to estimate that at 4 %
based on declining grades in existing South African
mines. This all changed in the early 1980s ( in Australia
mainly but also in NA with exploitation of surface
deposits ) .. so the RATE of CHANGE of cost of an added
oz of gold became NEGATIVE. Gold falls fast in that
environment... but even faster if interest rate are
positive at the same time.
The present situation is that is has become increasingly
costly to FIND and EXPLOIT low cash cost surface deposits.
.. evidenced by companies like ABX with low CASH COSTS
and great hedges .. making little dough as their
average costs are HIGH. In RSA, average costs have
been falling due to the end of ring fencing, restructuring
mining groups, slashing manpower .. The leading edge
of the industry is here at present IMHO.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 04:47
Hedgehog (brick upon brick upon brick thy bolster rarely used) ID#39857:

a round bracelet of exotic metal
its circular sine wave
depicts its period of chaos
this movent a flower
in a vase of static
places a spell, soothes and goes towards its exhaustion
our economy its vacuum
it trancends with harmony

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 04:47
Auric (Should Say HELD 100 Million in LTCM) ID#257312:


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 04:43
Auric (Sumitomo Bank Holds 100 Million Dollars in LTCM) ID#257312:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981001/d7.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 04:40
jims (DEC Gold 301.10) ID#252391:
DEc Gold is on its highs - the dollar has lost ground to all currenccies. The Bonds and other debt instruements are rallying.

It's going to be interesting. AGree with the comments just below that the stock market sell off didn't have the markings of something that wanted to accelerate. But I'm not going to try and pick a bottom in that arena. Had my fill of bottom picking in gold - if it pays off I'll never do it again. If it doesn't I may never do it again either.

Go gold

Silver off half a cent.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 04:33
jims (So African golds up 5.5%) ID#252391:
Surpassing the 1100 level the So Africans are poised to challenged their July highs at 1160 +/-.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^JGAI&d=1y

Central Banks are circling their wagons - lease window wide open, are there any takers for free money today. The technocrats that are so dutifully defending the $300 from attack for reasons not totally clear at least to me may have their happy scenerio up set by a bunch of roudy gold bugs. I hope the hell so!!!!!!!!!!!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 04:33
sharefin (Dabchick) ID#284255:
-
I'll get those charts done soon.
Have to arrange the data into a file for supercharts first.

Thanks for the data.

-----------------
All
Want a 'web-spider
http://www.davecentral.com/822.html
Teleport Pro is a fully automated, multithreaded, link-following, file-retrieving webspider.   It will retrieve all the files you want and only the files you want from any part of the Internet.   Teleport Pro can --- Create an exact duplicate, or mirror of a website, complete with subdirectory structure and all required files, Completely download a website, enabling you to offline browse the site at much greater speeds than if you were to browse the site online, and Search a website for files of a certain type ( and even size ) .

Goes real well with the 'Web Ferret'
http://www.ferretsoft.com/netferret/sales/

Go gold

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 04:31
ravenfire (lotsa red ink in Europe tonight) ID#333126:
France -2.38%
Germany -4.55%
Netherlands -3.58%
Switzerland -2.10%

gold up marginally, globex down a bit, US$ down slightly.

today's outlook for NY markets - overcast with chance of sudden showers. thunderstorms cannot be ruled out at this stage.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 04:28
Nick@C (I have made a small fortune buying gold shares!!) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The only problem is that I started with a large one{ ( :- ) ) .
..........................
Watch Dec gold ( GCZ8 ) go up -- near live.

http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes
..............................
Just returned from 3 days of whale watching off the south east coast. Humpbacks are beautiful creatures. It will be a great loss if they become extinct at our hands.
.................
Gold gathering strength for another run at 300. Beamer--You may have been looking at futures rather than spot. Don't get me excited!!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 04:17
sharefin (J Stack) ID#284255:
-
When the tail is wagging the dog, it's hard to get a valid reading from
technical models. For example, market breadth wasn't nearly as negative
today as a -240pt DJIA and -40pt NASDAQ loss would imply. And the Russell
2000 Index was down the equivalent of only 50 DJIA points. So today looked
more like hedge fund unwinding instead of real selling. We could be wrong,
but it just doesn't feel like this market is going to accelerate to the
downside RIGHT NOW.

But note that the DJ Transportation Average ( which originally triggered the
Dow Theory sell signal ) tumbled 4% today and is only 1% from hitting new
lows. The NASDAQ Advance-Decline Line did surpass its previous low on
today's close.


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 04:00
Dabchick (Wednesday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates) ID#258195:
Copyright © 1998 Dabchick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Here are the Lease Rates calculated from data published in the Financial Times this morning.

MGLR and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild .

GOLD------------1- month---------3-month--------6- month---------12- month

LIBOR--------------5.34--------------5.31--------------5.25----------------5.06

MGLR--------------3.97---------------3.64-------------3.54-----------------3.29

Gold Lease Rate-1.37--------------1.67-------------1.71------------------1.77

( Change ) ---------- ( - 0.10 ) ---------- ( + 0.01 ) -------- ( - 0.01 ) ------------- ( - 0.01 )

SILVER-----------1- month---------3- month-------6- month----------12- month

LIBOR--------------5.34--------------5.31--------------5.25-----------------5.06

Silver Lend Rate--2.80--------------2.00--------------1.40-----------------1.40

Silver Lease Rate-2.54--------------3.31--------------3.85-----------------3.66

( Change ) ---------- ( - 0.10 ) --------- ( - 0.25 ) ---------- ( 0.00 ) --------------- ( + 0.06 )

The lines labelled ( Change ) = change in lease rates since yesterday's figures.

Regards................Dabchick

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 03:59
Beamer () ID#193163:
...$300.00!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 03:55
Beamer () ID#193163:
and now $299.90....

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 03:51
Beamer (Spot Gold) ID#193163:
Just moved into the black from New York close - now $299.50 ...
here's hoping it keeps moving up.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 03:23
Envy (Markets) ID#219363:
Bam! Germany, France, Switzerland, etc. I love seeing comments from oleman, APH, and my own thoughts line up on the money, it makes me feel like something might actually move my way *grin*. Throw in Sharefin's swing chart ( which is looking serious ) and the shorts just might make out for the next coupla days.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 03:15
cherokee (@....tonto.nat'l.forest.........) ID#288232:

just for the record.....crude is a buy....
this not to bolster my current ( increasing )
positions....as some have alluded....

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha14.gif

i ride alone against the wind, and she is my friend....
dgtrygf...and there is only one dotssm....

war...look at history.....to know the future...

cherokee!;..wondering.at.audaucious.peopleo....&.their.motives....goway..

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 03:15
Dave in CO (Compared to the rest) ID#229141:
Perot is Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 03:10
Greenstone Gold (Kitco is..........) ID#428232:

alive and kicking today.....

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 03:09
2BR02B? (Haggis) ID#266105:

Perot: A Slim Pickens in every plot. And televised
capital punishment Monday nites.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 03:05
Greenstone Gold (A question to the Kitco Club Americans.....) ID#428232:

As an outsider, a Scot living in Western Australia, I tend to get a warmish feeling about Ross Perot.....he appears to represent the 1950/60's American values, a time when the US$ and American influence overseas was real.

What is the go with this guy, relative to Clinton ?

Haggis

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 03:05
Auric (German Stocks Down 3.7% in Early Trading) ID#240288:

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^GDAX&d=1d

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 02:33
sharefin (Globex down 5 points in as many minutes.) ID#284255:
http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes

What's the news?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 02:32
Crystal Ball (@ dirt) ID#287367:
Kaplan hasn't posted because of the Yom Kippur Holiday

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 02:29
sharefin (AE_Calgary ) ID#284255:
-
Thanks
It was a good read. Enlightening.
It is a good review and I have enjoyed all the previous ones too.

-----------------------------
Avid chatter
---
oleman . . Wed, Sep 30, 9:04PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
DM and SF are poised for a HUGE move. Aint gonna say which way, but you may
get ziggy to sell you his next signal. Or you could just wait and read it in
the papers. A HUGE move. You saw it here first..........

oleman . . Wed, Sep 30, 9:13PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Sure wish bondzai would answer me. If I just knew what he's selling
strangles on, it wud make it easier for me to figure this thing out.
mebbe.: )

oleman . . Wed, Sep 30, 9:16PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
grizz: If ziggy got long 4 weeks ago, he aint one to be faded. That puts him
in right at the bottom of the move. He didnt wait to read that one in the
TIMES.: )

oleman . . Wed, Sep 30, 9:21PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
grizz: a real dilemma here. A BIG move is imminent. If ziggy really did get
long 4 weeks ago, he's got about $5k per profit accrued. Chances of him
making another 5 grand are slim, so you fade him. But, if he's flat and just
doing a Clinton on us, the move MIGHT be up. IV is high enough to make a
long straddle/strangle problematic, at best. Oh!, to know what bondzai is
selling strangles on!!

zigzag7 . . Wed, Sep 30, 9:23PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
oleman: the main system is long in DM and SF ( for 22 trading days ) but I'm
now tracking about 70 commodities, financials and currencies, so I don't
take every signal in every market ... in the currencies I'm currently just
short the Dollar Index for the past 19 trading days - so far similar price
move to being long DM or SF

oleman . . Wed, Sep 30, 9:27PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
22 trading days? That's only a little over $4k per contract in 3 weeks. You
cant sell a crappy system like that. Bondzai would NEVER cough up the dough
for sumpin that misses the bottom by 2 WHOLE days!!: ) : ) TWO days after the
bottom. Heck, your copy of the TIMES woulda been in the bird cage for 24
hours.: )

zigzag7 . . Wed, Sep 30, 9:28PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
oleman: LOL ... ok, ok, I'm working on it ;- )

oleman . . Wed, Sep 30, 9:29PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
grizz: I shudda knowed it! bondo up about 2 handles in last 24 hours. That's
a short strangle for a rich man, fer sure. 'Course he aint gonna be rich
long, now, is he?

grizzly . . Wed, Sep 30, 9:32PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
oleman what makes you think they are gonna make such a big move and if you
don't know which way then how are you so sure? Not being smart just trying
to figure what it is you are seeing.

zigzag7 . . Wed, Sep 30, 9:33PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
oleman: incidentally the main system is long bondos for the past 85 trading
days ( profit of about $9,600 per contract ) but I ain't in that trade :- ( ...
looked like bondos were getting too toppy, but they weren't

legend . . Wed, Sep 30, 9:34PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
ole: my best wishes to you. You have were dealt yourself and most others
here a scattered hand when AVID and COLBY codified your posts. Henceforth
you are working against yourself. Never, Never, should you have given so
much. Morally..its comendable. Statistically ..... its the end. 2 - 5 months
out.... its gonna get tough. You are to be complimented for sharing.
Regardless.

oleman . . Wed, Sep 30, 9:40PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
legend: Wrongo! On the rare occasions when I come here in real time and give
a signal, NOBODY believes it. Usually just derision. First time was
December, 1996, last time was a week ago Monday. No matter what you know,
you still gotta be able, as mitstop says, to buy the terror and sell the
exuberance. If I gave fokes software that would place the order to the
broker everytime I placed an order, you might be right. But everything I
ever put on here still requires some one to recognize it and ACT on it.

oleman . . Wed, Sep 30, 9:46PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
legend: ALL the setups I've disclosed here require one to sell a market that
has been moving up, or buy one that has been dropping. Anyone who can do
that is already making money, and doesnt need my stuff. Those who cant do it
wont be helped by my stuff. Granted, there may be ( And I HOPE thereare ) a
handful who will be helped by my stuff. But, since it requires an emotional
strength that few posess, it wont be enough to mess up my trading, IMO.

oleman . . Wed, Sep 30, 9:52PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
pt: topx may be right. He's right more often than he is wrong. If he is, I
hope to be aboard before the train gets too far down the track. I'm bettin
my money that there's more down here. May be only early in the a.m., or
maybe a couple hard down days. Hafta wait and see. It AINT the end of the
world. Broad mkt has seen full bear of 40%+ down. Big boyz need to catch up
a little here and now. All the easy money on the down side will be in the
bank by end of nesxt week.

oleman . . Wed, Sep 30, 9:56PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
grizz: Its just the 'shape' of the charts on DM and SF that tells me a big
move is imminent. Look at those 2 dailies----burn em into your 29 yr old
brain. Then note what they do in October. Then dont ever forget it.

oleman . . Wed, Sep 30, 9:59PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
babber: I said last Wed that the chart was sick on that close. I held longs,
( a mistake ) simply because the entry was so good. I sold ytd and bought
puts, cause the sickness had become more acute. I cant see the future as
good as some. I believe we will trade lower in the morning, or ai wouldnt
have held onto those mountaineers. Where we'll close, I dont know. If 999
breaks---the 9/21 low---the way to the 9/1 low is open.

oleman . . Wed, Sep 30, 10:10PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
grizz: topx will win on every trade until the last long of the bull. He has
both the $$ and the guts to stay the course. So does hum1. most fokes who
bust out of trading do so simply because they do not hav e the combination
of capital and guts to allow the trade to work. All the teachers stress
'close' stops, but that only prolongs the misery. Especially in the stock
indexes. Pac Man will find those stops and gobble them up. Then move 20
handles in your direction, while digesting your grubstake. If I cant trade
with close stops ( most of the time I dont even have a stop in the market )
why the heck should I espect the 'newbie' to do so. I dont. I think newbies
should learn everything they can learn about options and use ONLY options in
various combinations and permutations, until the have enough dough to watch
markets move against their position without panicking and running.

oleman . . Wed, Sep 30, 10:14PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
bondz: IV on hogs is at multi-year highs. I'm short a lot of premium there.
JY also. fwiw.

oleman . . Wed, Sep 30, 10:50PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
grizz: I almost never straddle, except when IV is at a 2 year low. DM and SF
are midrange now. I'm playing the SF in one direction only. I just aint
sayin what that direction is.: ) I'll be selling some premium in JY tomorrow.
IV is at a 2 yr high there.

barbarian . . Wed, Sep 30, 10:56PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
I bet the oleman is going long swiss...I just betcha he is : )

oleman . . Wed, Sep 30, 10:57PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
sleepy. nite all. gone........

oleman . . Wed, Sep 30, 11:03PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
back for a quickie------grizz: You are a perfect example of what I was
talking about earlier. You are operating on limited capital, but your
knowledge of options will allow you to stay in the game until the $$ are
plentiful enough to allow you to branch out. Keep up the good work.
GONE..............

craig . . Wed, Sep 30, 11:57PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
October: a bear killer.........october's reputation as a bear killer comes
largely because it has experienced so many violent confrontations with the
enraged beast. actually , only the bear markets of 1957,1960 and 1966 were
official victims of the october reputation. but conditions of extreme panic
have often been dramatically reversed or moderated during the period, as in
1937,1946,and 1974. the market low in that last year ( 1974 ) came in october,
though a pair of sullen performers in the dow-30 dragged that index to a new
low in december of 1974. in 1987? the bear may have been killed but it was a
frightfull victory. in 1914 when the NYSE was closed from august-november,
the actual low came in october, so that remains an unofficial tally for the
bear-killer reputation. another nasty october encounter came with the cuban
missle crisis in 1962 and the twin october-massacres of 1978-79. despite
the months reputation, the secular adv/dec ratio of 53 to 47 isnt
impressive. oct.29th and 1987 are paired as frightening bear legends, but
both sept.1931 and march 1938 caused more djia damage. annual hi/lows,
highs:5 since 1950:3. lows 6 since 1950:4best and worst performances gains=
1982+10.7,1974+9.5 and 1931+9.1%. losses= 1987-23.2, 1929-20.3 and
1907-14.8% yearly record 53 advances 47 declines, major tops and bottoms.
bull markets: ( 0 ) : no bull market has ended in october. bear markets: ( 4 )
oct.22 1957 high-volume end to sputnik I shock. oct 24th 1960, mini-bear
discounted kennedy victory. oct6,1966 another mini-bear finished after 9
months and oct 19th 1987. end of a classic panic. dow down 508 points w/nyse
volume of 604million shares. all data is through 1990.


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 02:21
John Disney (Advanced GET) ID#24135:
To All
Please do see Tom Joseph's analysis on the sp500. This
is one guy I would NEVER go against mainly because he
has no axe to grind and no agenda other than making
money with his software .. which is the BEST.
If HE says that the sp500 is looking at a failed 5th
wave down or a double bottom .. better listen IF you're
interested in profits.
Also .. see his chart on ASA .. perfect .. target
top of wave 4 down or 27 .. it was there for all to see.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 02:11
ravenfire (property prices continue falling) ID#333126:
Singapore
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/4/fprop41.html

London
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/4/fprop21.html

ditto NY?
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/4/fprop22.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 02:07
mole (highrise - dec gold) ID#350145:
thanks highrise - that was new to me

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 02:03
2BR02B? (Durban Deep) ID#266105:

http://www.bday.co.za/98/0930/company/c9.htm

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 02:00
HighRise (Japan) ID#401460:

Looks like they are trying to give the market support again, if Clinton can fake it everybody can.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=1d

Good Night All, and good luck tomorrow, it will be another interesting day for sure.

HighRise

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:59
John Disney (Somebody say Harmony ) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Someone .. I forget who.. keeps saying that Harmony ..
my favorite stock .. is not keeping up with the
other mines ...

well now ..

lets look at a few mines ..

taking the price at january 1 1998 ..
Harmony 2.26 now 4.875 for gain of 115 %
Dbn Deep 1.52 now 3.4 for gain of 123 %
Homestake 8.82 now 11.82 for gain of 34 %
Lihir 1.05 now 1.27 for gain of gain of 21 %

note for Lihir I used a aussie $ price of 1.06 on
January 1 and a Aussie $ of 0.65 .. I think
the calculation is OK.

Deeps has outperformed Harmony by a little bit
.. this was ok with me as I was in it up to 2.75
and still have a stack of options .. However I
believe that heavy touting by Jim Blanchard is
a big factor in its price.. I think Deeps wants
to buy Harties from Avgold .. and it will need
to be a big share deal to do it as they dont
have cash or much in the way of earnings.. Deeps
will have to pay over the market in the form of
stock issuance and I think Harties may prove
troublesome for Deeps to run..


For romance and adventure ( and maybe lots of money
.. buy deeps )
.. for lots of money buy harmony ..
.. for lots of money and sweet dreams buy Anglogold.
.. for less money and plenty worries buy lihir
.. for much less money and heartburn buy Homestake.

I think Buffett said something like .. you want
to buy a company that can make money even if it's
managed by idiots .. because most of the time it
will be ...
.. such a company is Anglogold .. it cannot miss.
Harmony is great ( but NEEDS its management ) .. and it has
built a great resource base.
Deeps is appealling .. no doubt about it .. Im sure
my options will make money and Ill own the stock again..
it's an irresistable Company... and what a crap shoot.


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:52
HighRise (Gold) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

GC Z8
December Gold
2993
+3
+0.1


CL X8
November Crude Oil Light
1614
+16
+1.0
1618
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/curcommt.html?SOURCE=core/dbc

HighRise

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:48
mole (@ private investor) ID#350145:
could you please explain the significance of open interest. one of those things that i should know, but somehow escaped me. thanking you in advance.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:47
snowbird (Sorry here is the main site with all the charts) ID#220325:
http://www.iqc.com/lookup/index_often.htm

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:47
HighRise () ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gold ( CMX )
Dec
299.10
299.50
298.20
299.30
+0.30
9/30/98
22:11
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm f

ASIA/EUROPE
SPOT PRICE
September 29, 1998
6:12PM New York Time

Timezone Equivalents
.
Bid
Ask
Change from New York close
GOLD
294.70
295.20
+0.30
+0.10%
http://www.kitconet.com/gold.live.html#londonfix

Gold
2993
+3
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/indicators.html?source=core/dbc

ASIA/EUROPE
SPOT PRICE
September 30, 1998
11:59PM New York Time

Timezone Equivalents
.
Bid
Ask
Change from New York close
GOLD
296.50
297.00
-0.20
-0.07%
http://www.kitco.ca/gold.live.html


294.00 -0.40 Sept. 30 Not sure what year?
http://www.goldsheet.simplenet.com/

HighRise

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:45
snowbird (Check these charts out ( wide variety )) ID#220325:
http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?symbol=$XAU.X&chart1=ma&period=120&time=60m

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:44
Envy (@Snowbird) ID#219363:
What was APH's last call ? Always interested ...

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:42
snowbird (APH You are as dependable as usual) ID#220325:
I think we should clone you so we would always have one of you on Kitco,THANKS.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:40
PrivateInvestor (open interest ) ID#225283:
Copyright © 1998 PrivateInvestor/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

anyone know where it stands as of this moment? was up 2105 last I checked up to 177338 on the 28th...Silver is streaking...Buffet is attempting to Hunt down silver inTokyo,and London,and closing on a corner...I say we break 300 soon and have clear sailing to 327 or at least 315 by Thanksgiving...Long Term's situation is worse than the public could imagine.They plan on covering their shorts in Tokyo according to friend that has his ear to the ground...I put my ear the ground and could hear the rumble of the distant herd...Golden Star & Durban Deep are looking mighty cheeeeeaaaaappppp!!!!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:40
bulldog (y2k and FAA) ID#78136:
On June 8/98, the FAA reported that 141 out of
430 mission critical systems were y2k compliant.
By September 30/98, the remainder were scheduled
to be either renovated or replaced? Anyone hear
if they made it? No chance.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:36
HighRise (Preacher ) ID#401460:

I have a bunch of bookmarks but I am having a problem finding a real current live Gold price. Could you be so kind as to give me a URL that is alive. Thanks,

HighRise

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:36
dirt (Kaplan's gold outlook) ID#215379:
Anybody know why he hasn't posted the last two days Thanks

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:36
Open-Loop (Japan. NNNRRRRRRR(Dive bomber sound from old movie) Smoke in cockpit) ID#65118:
Flak all around, firing at the 13,000 ft level, engine sputters..........
.
.
.To be continued... I hate that!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:34
mole (mole 1 or 2 @ mole 1 or 2) ID#350145:
just to let bart and mole 1 or 2 know that there is another mole on this web. i did not post to Gianni, although the comment could have been mine. have not seen any other thinking by this other mole, but so far so good. mole 1 or 2.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:32
HighRise (Perot Site) ID#401460:

CHECK IT OUT! 99% say hang the bastard! Of course majoriety are men. Women like his treatment of women on the job.
http://www.perot.org/

HighRise

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:30
Randomwalker (Nikkei swinging wildly...) ID#409232:
in 10 minutes went from -380 to minus 240 back to minus 350

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:23
Open-Loop (Japan. Gollum must be sleep levering. Nikkei leveled out just above 13k) ID#65118:
I heard the swoop here....

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:22
EJ (Japan) ID#45173:
panic n 1: a sudden overpowering fright; esp : a sudden unreasoning terror often accomponied by mass flight 2: a sudden widespread fright concerning financial affairs and resulting in a depression of values caused by violent measures for protection of securities or other property.
- Webster's

Good luck tomorrow. When Brazil goes, and it will if commodities don't make a miraculous comeback, then best of luck to all of us.

When the ride gets this rocky, fasten your golden seatbelts.
G'Nite all.

-EJ

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:22
Preacher (Dutchman & gold) ID#227290:
Copyright © 1998 Preacher/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It's almost an hour since you posted about the POG, but gold is down $.40 at $298.60.

Hopefully, the third time will be the charm for gold to break $300. I find it interesting that with the Nikkei falling to new lows, gold is holding above its lows. Prior to a month or two ago, this was not the case.

If we are seeing a panic move into gold as a safe-haven, then we could see a $70 rise by Christmas. Who knows, maybe more?

I am always skeptical about moves on the last day of the nonth. Many times some traders are squaring their books for the new month and prices move in opposite directions of the trend. If we get no $5 drop in POG tomorrow, I'll feel a lot better about our chances.

So far, this has been a rather powerful move from #275. September was the best month I remember for many years.

Take care,

The Preacher

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:21
Mole (@Gianni) ID#34883:
No, I am not the author of the article, thanks for the concern though.
Methinks the conception of omnipotent government is more the cause of the problems we face today rather than conspiricies by individual bankers and media tycoons, not that those groups don't include their share of turds though.

I post URLS that touch upon perspective of how I see events. My experience has been that the perspective is rare. My own ineptitude thankfully curbs my defense of this perspective in my own words.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:20
Randomwalker (Nikkei bounced off 13K up slowly 50 pts) ID#409232:
......

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:17
DBog (All) ID#267298:
Is Asia a tad in the red tonight or

are my GOLD tinted glasses playing tricks on me ?

Go Gold


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:16
rich (Clinton was not lying) ID#411320:
He had his fingers crossed under the table. This is the mantality
of the liberal Clinton supporters...ever ask yourself why he is
always in Southern California?

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:15
Open-Loop (Japan...Do I hear below 13,000, gone once, gone twice,...............gone.....) ID#65118:
.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:13
HighRise (tolerant1) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

I have never read so much doom and gloom news reports in my life. And the actions and words of the president and his henchmen has sickened me even more. The man continues to lie to the people. It is not funny now.

The world is collapseing as we watch. China is in the Panama Canal. The UN is ready to strike in Europe. Russia is going back to communism after taking billons of US dollars. Germany has a new government after we let them take Chrysler, one of the big three. Who will build the M1 now, Germany? Brazil is about to collapse, China is about to devalue the HK dollar, Etc. Etc. And we thought Carter was bad!

Our worst fears, of last fall, are coming true!

HighRise

By the way, what is Gold doing? Hey Bart the World is crashing and Kitco charts and live gold reports are dead again?



Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:12
Randomwalker (Nikkei minus 390 now) ID#409232:
dumping time

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:10
Randomwalker (Nikkei down 335 and dropping fast) ID#409232:
:- ( ( so solly

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:09
tolerant1 (HighRise, Namaste' I found the intense manner in which Perot used the military as) ID#31868:
a club against BC...very interesting and he pounded home how anyone in the military would be in jail cracking rocks by now...

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:07
DBog (Highrise) ID#267298:
The most unfortunate thing is that many Americans still

believe the SICK SLICK

Go Gold

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:06
Open-Loop (Nikkei down 303 pts. Paper burning. Tomorrow will be a ride...) ID#65118:
.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:02
HighRise (Perot is calling for a grass roots movement!) ID#401460:

Grass roots movement to get the Rabbit out of the White House.

Fill out the survey.
www.perot.org

Our great leader, the World is in such great shape.....sure it is. The market drops 280 pts and he is out bragging about some fictitious economic report. Unfortunately the man is sick, and fortunately Gold appears to know it.

HighRise


Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 01:01
Auric (Japan Economy Worse Than Expected, Gloom Spreading) ID#240288:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/980930/bob.html

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 00:52
tolerant1 (HighRise, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...) ID#31868:
YUP!

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 00:52
Envy (Market Going Lower) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You just know the DJIA will go lower. Last October we fell to a level lower than the lowest low put in on this drop, and things were looking bright back then! Corporate earnings were headed up, things were looking peachy - now we're still above those levels, and some analysts are talking about corporate earnings being at 1991 levels! This is a no-brainer for the market bears. It if looks like a flying pig, it smells like a flying pig, it feels like a flying pig, and has that distinctive *oink* sound of a flying pig, then invite your friends over, kill it, cut it up, throw it on the barbecue, serve it up with some home-brew beer, and see if it tastes like a flying pig. I'm holding more PUT options against this market than I have dimes in my little piggy bank.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 00:49
HighRise (Don't you just love the Guy?) ID#401460:

We have got a Rabbit in the White House

Ross Perot

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 00:44
Rack (Highrise-I was wondering about protectionism also.) ID#411163:
Copyright © 1998 Rack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
North central USA-Montana, North and South Dakota are now stopping Canadian grain trucks for inspections. Farmers are blocking roads with grain and trucks and the Gov. of the 3-states are not backing down to political pressures. Farmers are going broke in droves!!!!! I have never thought about people going hungry in the USA until this week. It appears as though the Feds, by subsidising farm income, have created an extremely financially weak market sector. It is now so bad that the weak are bringing down the strong-none have any equity left. By the time things settle out food may be a better savings than gold.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 00:27
Dutchman (The Current POG) ID#215235:
Does anybody know what gold is trading for tonight? I think we are running out of time to finish off those final long positions while gold is still barely beneath $300/oz. The next strike through the $300 level should confirm a rally. Any comments? Thanks.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 00:24
Jack (SOMETHING TO PONDER) ID#252127:

The WJC affair and other emergency drills on the world stage are ploys to divert your attention away from their attempt to achieve world domomination over you and yours.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 00:23
HighRise (Protectionism next?) ID#401460:

Wednesday September 30, 9:34 pm Eastern Time

U.S. Steel Cos. Complain to Gov't

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Leading U.S. steel companies accused Japan, Russia and Brazil Wednesday of dumping hot-rolled carbon steel on the U.S. market at prices dramatically below
production costs and home market prices.

Just the beginning of future earnings problems!

HighRise

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 00:22
Open-Loop (@EJ. the feds are spending millions on an ad campaign to promote...) ID#65118:
Your new $20's. One would think that the dollar would not need promoting.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 00:12
PH in LA (USAGold: Repost) ID#225408:
Copyright © 1998 PH in LA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The following was posted this morning over at the new discussion at USAGold by Friend of ANOTHER. It makes as much sense as anything I have heard yet on the subject. A lot more than the talking heads who posit gradual interest rate declines over a period of time to give business time to improve earnings, etc. After reading this I wouldn't bet too heavily that low interest rates are here to stay! BTW, there have been some incredible posts over there. For those interested:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/day1.html

For some time, Another has posted that dollar rates were about to be taken up, in his opinion, to defend the currency against the coming Euro. At this late stage of currency war preparations, it¹s world economy be dammed, the battle is about to begin. The LTCM group knew this, so they bet the farm on higher rates. These people, at this level of power are not stupid. Gamblers, yes, stupid no! They work on real knowledge, not a traders guess as the press has portrayed them as doing. Problem is that their bet was as large as most countries and it would have caused a further CB embarrassment had so much money been made on an inside decision. I think they talked of lowering rates first to destroy their capital, then later took them over on the news. When it¹s done, rates will rise. That¹s why these major players are now selling off the Dow Jones on a rate cut, they know what¹s coming. Their position in the old LTCM portfolio will be sold off with a big profit, just as their old management had bet it would. The obvious portent from all of this is that the US economy is about to take a hit of unimaginable proportions from a currency war fought during a collapsing world economy. Wow! My best financial advise? Forget gold, buy a super fast computer so you can access this site later on! It¹s going to get real interesting! Thanks.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 00:12
rich (Nikkei down to 13,130) ID#411320:
Looks like japan is in full meltdown mode now. Look out below dow
Jones industrials tomorrow.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 00:07
EJ (Notes on the new US currency) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Today I withdrew $100 from an ATM. Two tens and four 20's. The 20's were the new ones.

My first reaction was disappointment. The bills looked cheap. Fake.

The font used for the numbering on the back and the extra white space reminded me of Carribean money. Pretty but not valuable. The graphic rendition, open and friendly. Wrong. The appearance of the bill does not connote permanent value. Reserve Currency? The seal on the obverse seems primative. President Jackson's eyes are tense, his brow furrowed. He looks worried. On the back again, what, has the White House been renovated by Beverly Hills architects?

My wife kept asking me, Are you sure it's not fake? as she turned it over and over in her hand when I got home and handed her one. My wife's from a country where the greenback has always meant real money. But this bill does not look like real money to her. I wasn't certain. The source conveyed its verity; it came from an ATM. Surely no bank will put fake money in their ATM. If a man I did not know and trust had given it to me in exchange for a purchase, I'd have asked for a real $20 bill.

Out of this context, this well known and trusted point of distribution, the local ATM, the bill looked like nothing more than a piece of paper with numbers printed on it.

On the 'fridge under a magnet is a Mexican 1 peso note from my childhood dated 1967. I recall clearly that it bought a candied apple from the window of the schoolbus as we sat waiting in the heat with my legs sticking to the torn plastic seats for all the kids to board in Guadalajara. I returned there with my second wife twenty years later. Muy malo, muy malo! said the anonymous voice on the hotel phone in a call to our room after we'd just checked in without a marriage certificate. From that trip on my desk is a coin that bought me another candied apple two decades years later. A 1000 peso coin. The 1000 peso coin was pulled from circulation in the early 1990s after revaluation in Mexico's latest attempt to make the peso a meaningful unit if value. Does that mean the old 1 peso note is now legal tender? For all debts?

Tonight this became clear. The US government must do anything to maintain our faith in the dollar. Everyone's faith. For when faith is lost, all is lost. It is nothing to destroy a nation's economy to preserve the dollar. Where dollars are truly challenged soon bombs will fall.

Shall we sell Treasuries for gold? taunted the Japanese premier over a year ago in the boldest angry challenge to the dollar ever publically expressed. The Euro is an ostensibly peaceful challenge.

Do not misunderstand or underestimate the implications of this.

The seeds of war.

-EJ

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 00:04
tolerant1 (Jack, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...) ID#31868:
Its called the Constitution...uh huh...that is the BEST reason...yup...

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