Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:58
TheMissingLink (gagnrad ) ID#373403:
I can personally guarantee that the EPA would never take such a bold step to clean up the water supply as requiring water pipes to be gold plated. In fact, I have been opposing the EPA in several instances where they should go further to clean up the water supply and require the Army to be more protective of human health and the environment.

See for yourself.


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:52
CoolJing (Pete) ID#343259:
good call,
how long till IMF dick-tates term to US?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:42
Maria Bond (MARKET BOUNCE ) ID#348265:








Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:41
kolorado (oldman, what's next) ID#272206:
after the retracement, a retest of the lows from Aug 31 then more downside?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:41
jims (Retracement Rally time) ID#253418:
It's the coming of the Lunar/Eclipse Peutz Rally.

Get your calculators out and fiqure out the points of likely resistance. As volitile as these markets are becoming we'll likely get there in a few days. I'm thinks that the premiums on options are rising so fast the market can go up and the vlue of Puts still rise.

Up then down - but if today in Asia is any indication its up up up in the S&P before down.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:41
Who Cares? (Poor Puetz) ID#242328:
Copyright © 1998 Who Cares?/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Eventually, the PPT team *will* fail. The key word here is

I think it's pretty obvious that Greenspan's speech on Friday was
timed so that investors would have three days to interpret it as a
speech about cutting interest rates.

Ergo, the crash for next week is likely to have been pre-empted now.

One major difference between now and the Olden Days of Plunge
Protection, i.e. John Law, is the ability to keep the vast majority
of the population in mental lockstep through television, and the
monopolization of information through a few major news outlets.

The belief system has to break down first, before a real crash
can take place.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:27
crazytimes (Clinton losing all support....) ID#342376:
Copyright © 1998 crazytimes/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Doors closing on Clinton escape routes
By Hugo Gurdon in Washington

THE crisis threatening to bundle President Clinton out of office in disgrace accelerated yesterday amid signs of panic in the White House and defection by Democrats.

Having hoped that his week in Russia, Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic would shore up his leadership, Mr Clinton returned to Washington to discover that he is vastly weakened.

White House aides said Mr Clinton was shattered by an attack last week by his ally, Democratic Senator Joseph Lieberman, which made him accept that the crisis was not manufactured by his enemies and not one he can escape through the usual mixture of denial, defiance and wounded pride. He is quite disorientated and very stricken, one political adviser said, agreeing with those who thought his appearance in Dublin with the Prime Minister, Bertie Ahern, was that of a haunted man.

Jim Moran, a senior Democratic congressman, said yesterday that Mr Clinton would be very fortunate if he escaped with no more than formal censure by Congress. Mr Moran said: I don't think that's an option, I think we are bound to go through impeachment proceedings. I don't know how he can ever recover.

There were more body-blows to the President from Senator Patrick Moynihan, the senior Democrat who first broke ranks and in 1994 called for an independent counsel to investigate the Whitewater scandal. Yesterday, he said Henry Hyde and Orrin Hatch, the two Republicans who will lead Congress in deciding whether to impeach the President, were first rate men of impeccable standing. This forestalls any effort by the White House to attack them as partisan.

The doors on Mr Clinton's escape routes are being shut one after another and confidence and unity are bleeding away. Aides were reported as saying the mood in the executive mansion was unbelievably depressing . . . somewhere close to despair. Like President Nixon a generation ago during Watergate, Mr Clinton is ever more isolated. One insider said: Nobody is managing this crisis, the loop is down to two people, Bill and Hillary Clinton. They are doing it all themselves.

The Governor of Maryland, Parris Glendening, cancelled a public appearance with Mr Clinton, and the President's one-time close aide, George Stephanopoulos, said: The Democratic Party is running away from him.

With the President's own party saying such things, there is now talk that Mr Clinton's end could come quickly. Mr Moran and others suggest that if the report due shortly from Kenneth Starr, the independent counsel, reveals not just sordid details of sex sessions in the Oval Office but also clear evidence that the President tried to cover it up, a delegation of Democrats will tell Mr Clinton to resign.

Officials say the President recently made a catastrophic blunder that has had the unintended effect of forcing Mr Starr to include in his report all the grubbiest details of Mr Clinton's affair with Monica Lewinsky. The error was to insist under oath and in his televised confession on Aug 17 that he had been legally accurate when he swore that he never had sexual relations with Miss Lewinsky.

To enable Congress to decide the truth, Mr Starr is now obliged to explain exactly what Miss Lewinsky and Mr Clinton did with and to each other behind closed doors. There are rumours that the details are such that even hitherto-ardent supporters would be too embarrassed to defend. Speaking of the report, which could be delivered to Congress this week, one presidential adviser said: It's going to be blistering. It is going to connect every dot and draw every negative inference.

The crisis has moved into a phase that pundits say confirms the old Washington maxim that presidencies are destroyed not by misdeeds but by cover-ups. It is now being asked whether Mr Clinton's use of tax-financed government departments and aides to perpetuate a deliberate lie amounts to abuse of office. Trent Lott, majority leader in the Senate, said: The answer could be yes. It looks very bad.

Senator Lieberman's speech has destroyed the White House's strategy for the past eight months, which has been a combination of insisting that his relations with Miss Lewinsky were private and attacks on Mr Starr for being a biased, political enemy.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:27
gagnrad (Gogold re optimism) ID#43460:
You realize that if gold goes to $325 and stays there for any length of time I could retire and move to the country? So, considering Murphy's Law, we can anticipate either it will stay here in the doldrums or continue to drop so low that they will start to gold plate sewer pipe for its corrosion resistant qualities. In fact with my luck they'll probably come out with an EPA edict that all water and sewer pipes must be gold plated to protect the water quality, seize all the gold for that purpose and THEN it will go up to $325! ( 8-^{}

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:25
Oldman (Rally) ID#186147:
We have just seen the worst slide from the top in the stock market in 60 years. A rally, on the order of 50% or so, is baked in the cake. Timing of the rally was the only question. The reappearance of our leading chicken little, calling for a lunar-induced crash, takes care of the timing problem. Buy the first dip on Tuesday for a 50 handle bounce in the Spoos.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:22
Shek (1) ID#287279:
HK up 7%.
Who is investing there? Drug addicts?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:20
Pete (CoolJing-Maylaysian suckers, NO WAY. Read my post to farfel on K2-23:02) ID#222231:
Copyright © 1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:02
Pete ( farfel-The winds of change are here. ) ID#222231:
Copyright © 1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gold is on its way UPPPPP! The following article posted on Yahoo TVX
site by tunaclipper says it all. Maylasia has told the IMF where to stick it
and look what is happening in their market. Up several days in a row and
up 19.5% as of now. How long will it take for other nations under the
thumb of the IMF and the dollar to catch on? Methinks it has happened and
will snowball. Go gold!!!!!

The winds
change are
Sep 6 1998
12:03PM EDT

After reading about a dozen countries pushing a
gold standard, Jack Kemp and company pressing
for gold backing, Malaysia closing its doors to
currency speculators and going toward gold, the
rush to gold has begun. If there are shorts out there
betting that gold will go down to $270 or so, watch
out! The reports from so many countries and so
many political leaders jumping on the gold
bandwagon is telling me that our time has arrived.
For those waiting for the fuze to be lit, it has
already been lit and the explosion is imminent. The
press has grabbed a hold of the gold movement and
is no longer fighting gold and glorifying the dollar. I
usually ignore the gold bug publications because
they are always touting the value of gold and we
grow numb to that. When the mainstream press
jumps on board and Mr. Average Investor and
politician are hit with it in the newspapers and TV
newscast, it will not be a blip. The time has
arrived!! ( Could I be wrong though?.......Naayyyy ) .

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:15
sharefin (Nuclear plants pose Y2K challenges) ID#284255:

Looks like the globall PPT is hard at work.
Or is this the Lunar impulse coming in.

I guess that Greenspan has been wispering in many ears this weekend.
So he should...

So a up crash before downcrash looks on the cards.

Who am I to fight the might of the PPT.

J. Stack
The tail is starting to wag the dog as mega-hedge funds scramble to unwind
their derivatives. This is what has sent the Dollar tumbling and gold stocks
soaring ( late this week ) . It's about time, and we have no remorse for those
speculative, if not manipulative hedge funds ( some of which we've heard have
lost 'everything' ) . Perhaps we'll start to see global markets on a less
distorted basis.
Two factors have surprised us this week. First is the degree of damage
control exerted by what you might call talking heads on Wall Street.
Again, call it belligerent complacency, but NO ONE ( at least no one from a
major Wall Street firm ) is willing to call this anything but a temporary
correction. Even the Wall Street Week elves shifted more bullish to +4. From
a contrarian standpoint, that news couldn't be worse for the market. The
other surprise was the extreme heavy buying that came in from nowhere on two
critical occasions this week... first, overnight on Monday to pop the stock
index futures to a huge premium that ignited Tuesday's rebound... and
second, in the closing hour on Friday when the DJIA was down 200pts and
destined to finish well under last Monday's important close. Instantly,
3/4's of that loss disappeared.
Whether the buying was institutional or from the Fed's plunge protection
team, we suspect they realize the importance of last Monday's closing level
near 7500. Psychologically, investors have been pushed toward the brink of
panic. They've held on - because of Tuesday's rally ( also the 2nd biggest
ever ) , and because of the repeated rhetoric that we CAN'T have a bear market
under these economic conditions. We'll see...
BONDS: bond models remain bullish, but we're neutral. There is risk if
commodity markets ( especially gold ) continues the upward surge of late this
GOLD: amazing 20-30% rebound in gold stocks on Thursday & Friday. Still
vulnerable in a meltdown scenario; but for now, a safe bottom appears in
JAPAN: struggling ( and also vulnerable in a meltdown ) , but very encouraging
that it bucked Wall Street's big sell-off last Monday

In closing, it's always an amazing feeling to see EVERYTHING we own rise in
a week when everyone else is losing money ( not to mention the sleep ) . This
is a bear market... and it's NOT over yet. If DJIA 7500 is broken within the
next week or two, a crash scenario is still probable. NOTE: the Transports
and Utilities have already broken well under Monday's close.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:11
gogold (It is almost time) ID#431187:
up $2 for 2 consecutive days
325 by 11/11/98 - don't tarry

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:11
panda (Globex......) ID#30126:
FWIW, it's up 1400.......

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:10
panda (Good night all.) ID#30126:
Got to finish that 'Labor Day' house painting tomorrow.... :- (

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:09
CoolJing (Malaysia up 22%) ID#343259:
living proof that a sucker is born every minute

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:06
panda (Rhody) ID#30126:
Copyright © 1998 panda/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The only fly in the lease rate argument is what you might call, 'an extraordinary event clause'. These are not 'normal' times. Comparisons that are so often made to the past will fail in the future because the same conditions do not exist in the here and now. We are in uncharted territory in some respects ( fundamental ones at that! ) . We used to know how to use a compass and compensate for magnetic declination. Now it's, I got my cell phone. Now where the hell did I put my GPS unit? In other words, a piecewise linear system has become the normal assumption for models. We were operating in the 'linear' of the 'piecewise linear' system. The question should be centered around the discontinuity that's about to occur. People don't always think in linear terms, or do they? BTW, I like your posts on the lease rate information. Keep it up. It does work when the assumptions are linear. What inquiring minds want to know ( Enquirer ing? ) is what happens when the earthquake happens in the middle of the Pacific ocean and a little 12 inch 'wave' appears on the surface... I wonder, what does that 12 inch wave mean for us continental shelf lurkers? :-0

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:04
Realistic (@Puetz (important & urgent)) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A few minutes after the markets in New-Zealand opened today, you said that the crash had already started there because the lunar-eclipse has now passed. The market opened close to 2% down. ( I don't agree that a 2% down opening is a crash but you are entitled to your opinion ) .

Anyway, at this moment, it is now ( New-Zealand ) down only 0.6%.

Would you mind taking a few minutes and give us some explanations? Do you think the market will still crash by the time it closes or is it that the effects of this latest lunar-eclipse are already cancelled for that country?

What about for North-American stock markets? Will is still be influenced by this event?

Thanks for clarifying these things for us.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:25
Puetz ( New Zealand and Gold ) ID#222167:
Copyright © 1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Now that the lunar-eclipse has passed, you are
already seeing the changed psychological effects in New
Zealand. The post-eclipse crash has started in far away
New Zealand. It will probably spread to Asia and Europe
as those markets open. By Tuesay morning, when US stocks
open, a rout could already be in the making . I believe,
somehow, the maximum tidal ( gravitational forces ) that
occur during a lunar-eclipse effect the thinking of a
large number of people. It was this delusional thinking
that helped create the Sept. 1 - 4 upward consolidation.
With the eclipse gone, investors thinking will become
more normal. They will realize the terrible financial
situation, and sell heavily.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 23:00
jims (To REALISTIC) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Interesting and rare perspective is yours. Add to it that after CLinton hands over the keys to the White House whlich should be a few weeks away we'll have that behind us and it'll be construed as bullish, of course.

Tend to concur the anxiety level may have recently peaked. A lower dollar, easier rates, steadying stock markets and a higher trending commodity market may be picture for the next couple of weeks. Just about the oppositie form what was envisioned last week. How things change so quickly.

Do think you perspective deserves some thought - the sellng may be done, for a bit at least. Have to get those ossilators off the floor.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:58
panda (Puetz) ID#30126:
Thanks for the reply. I believe the situation, the problem is, no one else does. If I try to say anything to anyone ( whom I suspect are in denial ) about this market being done, so stick a fork in it... Well, I'm labelled as 'negative'. :- ) )

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:55
panda (Crazytimes) ID#30126:
PPT is real. Whether or not they enter the markets as times as some suspect is another matter though.

Do you remember the 'set up' on gold the last time we had a three day weekend in the States….?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:53
jims (Good night America) ID#252391:
As you all peddle off for a good night's sleep and tomorrow's holiday the Asian markets are acting kindly. HK and Japan up 400-200 points. Yen near 132, Australian stocks up big, mining shares up 4%.

Yahoo is asleep.

Notice that short term rates are up 8-9 basis points - seems interst rate cut may be in the offing - or at least some parties think it is.

S&Ps on globex up 900 +/-.

Hell of a start to the eclipse lunar crash . . .

Government controls working wonders on Malaysia stock market - idea may spread.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:52
panda (Auric) ID#30126:
How does that expression go? You aint seen nothin yet…

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:52
gagnrad (Gusto Oro, Squirrel and All) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gusto Oro, your experiance is good advertisement for cash-only accounts. With one of them there is less chance either the customer or the broker can margin the stock holdings. IMHO

Squirrel, re y2k. I decided to take the plunge so I set my dos date setting to 9-6-2000 and rebooted. The first thing that happened was my cookie file expired so I had to look up my password. I'll keep you informed about other glitches I find in my win3.1 and netscape 3.01 as they come up. BTW if you guys are serious about worrying over y2k I would think that aerobic physical fitness trainng would be more worthwhile than monitary fiscal fitness. Gonna' have to chop a lot of firewood. ( 8-^ ) ) IMHO

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:50
Realistic (Change of psychology) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The change of psychology around the world is already a bit noticeable in the stocks indices that are already open in the far east and as mentioned a couple of weeks ago, worldwide anxiety is now due to come down from the excessive levels that we have witnessed lately!

It will be good for commodities and the metals. Even for Gold but no excessive gains though for the yellow metal, just a bit.

The Russian government will soon be installed ( one way or the other ) and Latin American troubles will abate in a few weeks.

Looks like Latin America's problems will complete the circle of the stressful economic events that started in Asia last year.

We will always be far from a perfect world but worldwide calamities have now been so much publicized ( and rightly so ) and on the mind of so many politicians that the planet could now be on recovery type of a road for a few years to come.

We shall watch this together eh!

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:50
Jujube (Oooooops) ID#252286:
That last post was supposed to go to K2, I'm not supposed to post here. But now that I can...... No, back to the dungeons.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:50
CoolJing (Lurker 777: those Aussies aren't forward selling!!!) ID#343259:
'bout time they checked fire, hope the SAfricans chill too, nuttin worse than premature e-speculatin

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:47
Lurker 777 (Spot Gold Up $1.15 @ $288.15) ID#317247:
YES, I can see the clouds.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:43
CoolJing (Lurker 777 take gold ta heaven!!) ID#343259:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:37
RETIRED SOLDIER (Gianni) ID#347235:
Thank you very much

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:33
Lurker 777 (Spot Gold UP $1.10 @ $288.10) ID#317247:
Take me Higher!

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:33
Pu'ukani (Editorial from Monday's London Times) ID#226327:

This is by William Rees-Mogg, the editor of the London Times. This is as mainstream as you can get in Europe. I think this is highly significant that it this material is starting to come out in a mainstream newspaper.

From Little Rock to the Oval Office, Clinton trails a
stench of depravity and corruption

On every count, a moral bankrupt
It is not a good idea to make a charismatic sociopath the
leader of one's party, or the President of one's country.

When the Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey says that
President Clinton's conduct is immoral, he is entitled to
say that. He lost a leg in Vietnam when Bill Clinton was
dodging the draft in Oxford; he ran against Clinton for the
nomination in 1992 and in 1996 observed that Clinton
was an unusually good liar.

When Senator Joseph Lieberman says that the President
has compromised his moral authority, he should add an
apology of his own. Senator Lieberman should say sorry
to the American people for helping to persuade them to
elect and re-elect a morally defective President.

The psychological truth about Bill Clinton is relatively
simple. He is not wholly a madman; he does not hate his
fellow human beings, as Hitler did, nor does he wish them
ill; he is obsessed with power and with women; he is a
brilliant emotional campaigner, but there is a piece missing.
He has no moral compass; he does not know right from
wrong. This was always apparent in the way he acted as
Governor of Arkansas, but the Democrats, the American
press and, worst of all, the American public, chose to
overlook that. It was equally apparent in his behaviour to
hundreds of women. He had a standard operating
technique, and had a staff to handle it. The women were
called bimbo eruptions; the technique was called

The rub-a-dub involved telling the women to lie about
the affair; if there was still a risk that she would talk, she
was offered the choice between a good job, if necessary
on the federal payroll, or having her character blackened.
Sometimes this was accompanied by physical threats,
given at second-hand; one woman has testified that an
emissary of the Democrats threatened to break her pretty
legs. The Arkansas police say that they had to cover
assignations with more than 100 women. Apparently
President Clinton told Monica Lewinsky that he had
connected with some hundreds of other women since he
was first married. It is addictive conduct; it is also a
destructive abuse of women.

Yet this is the less important part of the President's moral
blindness. In the Arkansas years, he helped in the
cover-up of the mass importation of cocaine into Mena
airport, of which there is evidence that he had knowledge.
He set up the $700 million Arkansas Development
Finance Agency ( ADFA ) , which made crony loans in
return for kickbacks to the Governor's political funds. The
ADFA records have disappeared. His wife had corrupt
partners in the Rose Law Firm whose records were
shredded shortly after the death of Vince Foster, the
former White House counsel.

Clinton was the associate of Arkansas criminals, including
his bond-dealing friend Dan Lasater, convicted for a
cocaine felony and pardoned by Clinton. Lasater's
executive partner, Patsy Thomasson, is still in the White
House, and was one of those who went into Foster's
office to clear up after his death.

Clinton failed to seek proper investigation of the
suspicious deaths connected to these scandals. The
numbers are high: four Clinton associates died in doubtful
circumstances; eight people investigating allegations also
died; nine witnesses died. Of these 21 deaths eight were
found to be suicides, including those of Vince Foster
himself, of Kathy Ferguson, the former wife of the trooper
who allegedly solicited Paula Jones, and of Ed Willey, the
former manager of Clinton's campaign finance committee.
Five of the suspicious deaths occurred in plane crashes.

The pattern of abuse of public office continued in the
White House, in raising funds for campaign finance, in the
transfer of FBI files on political opponents, in the false
prosecution of the White House travel staff. Some of the
deaths occurred after Clinton became President. Jerry
Parks, a private detective in Little Rock, was shot two
months after Vince Foster's death. He had compiled a
dossier on Clinton's sexual conduct, apparently at Foster's
request. When Foster's death was announced on
television, Parks turned to his wife and said: I'm a dead

Mrs Parks alleges that the Clinton dossier was stolen
shortly before her husband's murder and that she had
been unable to secure a satisfactory Arkansas police
investigation. Arkansas politics have long been a violent
and corrupt affair, and neither as Governor nor as
President did Bill Clinton help to reform it.

The Republicans, Kenneth Starr and now the Democrats
have concentrated on the sexual scandals. There are a
number of reasons for this. The corrupt maladministration
and fundraising are very difficult to prove. Heaven knows
who did the Arkansas murders, or how many of the
suspicious deaths were murders. They belong to the
hinterland of corrupt Arkansas politics in which Bill
Clinton operated. The American people do not want to
recognise that their President is not only a sex addict but a
deeply corrupt politician.

Yet this is far more than a sex scandal. Democratic
congressmen running in the mid-term elections are
distancing themselves from him and after the elections he
will no longer have much power to reward or punish. The
loaves and fishes will be provided, if at all, by the
publishers. Monica Lewinsky's book is being offered for
$10 million.

After Watergate many of the participants, some of whom
had gone to prison, wrote their accounts of the Nixon
White House. What will Patsy Thomasson's memoirs be
worth? She knows what went on between Dan Lasater
and Clinton in the old days; she knows what she found in
Vince Foster's office; she knows the reality of Bill and
Hillary's relationship.

The next two years will see more and more of the truth
coming out. Some of it may even exonerate Clinton from
particular allegations. Unfortunately, much of it will be like
the evidence of Monica Lewinsky or Gennifer Flowers, at
first denied and then proved to be true. Once Clinton
admitted that he had lied about Lewinsky, all the other lies
he has told have ceased to work.

Clinton's position is therefore likely to get worse and
worse, as the Starr report is published, as the evidence
continues to flood out, and his party rejects him. The
American people will begin to understand how defective
he always was, how willing to abuse his power.

On The Frost Programme yesterday Chris Patten said
he thought the best thing to happen would be for the
American people to turn over the Clinton leaf and let him
finish his term of office. If it were all only about Monica
Lewinsky that might be possible, but there are too many
other scandals. Miss Lewinsky was the norm, not the
exception. There cannot be a clear-cut resolution of the
Clinton scandals so long as he remains in the White

The authority of the President of the United States
depends on public confidence in his moral character.
Clinton now has no more moral authority in politics than
Robert Maxwell, another charismatic sociopath, had in

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:32
Gianni Dioro (Ret Soldier, Gold into Germany) ID#384350:
When in doubt you should always seek professional advice. Normally when someone moves to another country they are allowed to bring into the country personal possessions, exceptions notably being automobiles.

A personal coin collection not for immediate resale shouldn't be subject to VAT in my non-professional opinion. You might try to call the airport in Frankfurt or Munich or wherever you are flying to and ask to speak with the customs department.

Since you are not yet resident in Germany, you should be able to bring in personal posessions free from tax, and possibly a used car.

Otherwise, when you clear passport control, you pick up your luggage and proceed through customs. You would then declare your coin collection. If they are going to tax it, you may wish to forward it to a nearby country that doesn't tax Gold.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:28
hugo (regrets) ID#402151:
Copyright © 1998 hugo/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

After losing a pile of money attempting to catch
the top of the stock market, I laid off in June. I
expected the S&P 500 to top near 1220 and was
looking to buy a 1100 Sep put which was recently
worth about 40,000, a 2000% increase.Sigh.
A week ago Yen calls were cheap, the charts looked
bullish. A $100 option is now worth about
So what am I into now? You guessed it--gold.
Stinkin pokey gold. Trillions of frenzied dollars
running around the globe looking for a home and
relatively few finding it in gold ( or silver ) . Are
these billionaires stupid? A billion dollars
invested in silver could drive the price to $100
an ounce. It would take a lot more to drive up
gold. Did the Hunt brothers scare everyone off?

The silver market could easily be driven higher
because it is now primarily seen as a commodity
and is less available relative to demand. Perhaps
gold is now primarily seen as a commodity, and not
as a monetary phenomenon. The recent price action
would support this thesis. From 7/21 to 8/28 the
Dow lost about 14%. Gold lost about 8%. The
dollar, using the dollar index was down about 1%
and even now is only down about 4%. Gold is now
down only 3% from 7/21. Apparently, enough people
don't think gold is money. The Yen, the
Deutschmark, the Ruble are money. And since
whatever people think is money is money, then
maybe gold is no longer money. It is precious
because goofy teenagers like to punch holes in their ears, noses, lips, eyebrows, and whatever else suits their adolescent fantasies, and insert gold trinkets. Maybe gold is of no more use than a beanie baby and us Kitcoites are simply waiting for the gold craze to catch on. But if deflation means people have less money to through at stuff, then gold is in trouble.
I hope I'm wrong....go gold....puleeeeeeeeeeeze.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:27
jtaher (re:gun tips) ID#249409:
Thanks to all for the advice - will get to practice, practice

Now, if only someone could figure out these markets as easily.....

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:19
Goldteck ( Kinross Gold,Kubaka gold mine,on a gold mining project, taxes add at least US$60 an ounce . ) ID#431200:
Copyright © 1998 Goldteck/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
 In early 1995, Kvaerner began work on the Kubaka gold mine in the Magadan province, east of Siberia. The project was then owned jointly by Cyprus Amax Minerals Co., of Denver, and a group of Russian investors. Toronto-based Kinross Gold Corp. became the operator in June when it merged with Amax Gold Inc., previously a 59%-owned subsidiary of Cyprus Amax. Saturday, September 5, 1998

Mine developer trumpets its inside experience in Russia


Mining Reporter The Financial Post

 Others may choose to write off Russia and its brief, thus far spectacularly unsuccessful romp, into free market economics, but Ian McColl is going to stay the course.

 McColl, an executive vice-president at one of the world's major mining engineering firms, says Russia's untapped mineral wealth is too impressive to ignore.

 The country's economic chaos and political instability will eventually pass, he believes, and lessons learned by western mining companies over the past few years will make Russian projects easier in future.

 McColl's company, Kvaerner Metals, has more experience in Russian mining projects than any engineering firm in the world, a competitive advantage it intends to keep.

 Kvaerner Metals is a Toronto-based subsidiary of Kvaerner PLC of London. The Toronto office co-ordinates the mine design activities of 22 other Kvaerner locations around the world.

 Before being bought and renamed by Kvaerner in 1996, Kvaerner Metals was Davy International Canada Ltd., a subsidiary of the 140-year-old British engineering company that had operated in Canada for 50 years.

 Over the past four years, Kvaerner has worked on 14 projects in Russia and the nearby republics of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Usually the work has consisted of performing bankable feasibility studies -- a detailed study of a mining project's prospects, intended to help raise financing -- for North American companies.

 Kvaerner was the first western company to design and build a gold processing plant in Russia. The firm's engineers consider the project, at the Kubaka gold mine in far eastern Russia, the most difficult mining job the company has done.

 It's a good market, McColl says calmly, just days after a sharp devaluation of the Russian ruble has pitched the country into economic crisis yet again.

 If you look at the size and [mineral] resource base of this region, sooner or later it's going to be developed. It must be.

 Not only will Kvaerner continuing pursuing jobs in Russia, but the company is considering taking on jobs on a fixed-price basis -- where the engineering firm, not the client, swallows cost overruns.

 So far, Kvaerner has designed and built two mine-related projects in Russia, both on a cost-reimbursable basis. If costs flew beyond Kvaerner's stated estimate to its client, the client paid up. We are prepared to do it, given the right project, McColl says of a fixed-price deal.

 It's expected most Russian mining projects over the next several years will be owned by small mining companies and that will create pressure for fixed-price contracts, he says. Since those juniors can't assure lenders they will be able to handle cost overruns, engineering firms will be expected to offer guaranteed prices.

 Kvaerner is fully aware of the risks and pitfalls of taking on big, costly projects in Russia. Related stories:

• Friedland's Siberian adventure

• Mine developer trumpets its inside experience in Russia

 The country's tax system, McColl says, threatens to stifle mineral development. On a gold mining project, he reckons, taxes add at least US$60 an ounce to a company's costs.

 Mining companies need to understand that only high-grade ore bodies are likely to become economic projects in Russia, he argues. The company's own recent experience has made it clear how expensive it is to work there.

 In early 1995, Kvaerner began work on the Kubaka gold mine in the Magadan province, east of Siberia. The project was then owned jointly by Cyprus Amax Minerals Co., of Denver, and a group of Russian investors. Toronto-based Kinross Gold Corp. became the operator in June when it merged with Amax Gold Inc., previously a 59%-owned subsidiary of Cyprus Amax.

 Kvaerner's job was to design and build Kubaka's processing mill, where ore from the mine is crushed, ground and soaked in a cyanide solution to extract gold.

 The project, in an area so remote there is no road access to other parts of the country, posed formidable transportation and cultural challenges. McColl freely admits Kvaerner learned some painful lessons.

 By the time the mill was completed in February 1997, Kvaerner had spent US$178 million, a figure McColl will say only was significantly beyond original estimates.

 Transportation costs, particularly for air freight, were much higher than expected and the project required more skilled expatriate labor than had been budgeted for.

 Everybody learned a lot in the first generation, McColl says. We now know the indirect costs of building in this region are probably twice what they are in North America -- freight costs, transportation costs, fuel costs, housing costs, food costs.

 In the first year of construction, it became clear most of the 600 Russian laborers hired for the project lacked proper experience in pouring concrete and erecting structural steel, particularly in cold weather. Kubaka's owners had encouraged Kvaerner to keep the number of highly paid foreigners to a minimum, which McColl says was a big mistake.

 During the second winter, the number of expatriate tradesmen brought in as supervisors shot up to about 80 from just 20 the year before. These tradesmen, recruited from Canada and the U.S., were paid a premium -- or uplift -- of 35% on top of their usual domestic pay rates. So a tradesman getting $70,000 a year in Toronto was paid a salary of about $94,500 at Kubaka. Expatriates would be flown home for two weeks rest after six weeks of work on the project.

 Russian laborers, meanwhile, were paid about US$6 an hour, with a roughly equivalent amount in taxes being paid to the governments of Russian and Magadan.

 Kubaka's biggest challenge, however, was the task of getting a huge amount of material and equipment to the worksite.

 The closest year-round road to Kubaka stretches from Magadan, the region's main port, to Omsukchan, 600 kilometres to the north. The remaining 300 km from Omsukchan to Kubaka can be travelled only by helicopter, or on an ice road open from early January to late April each year. In warmer seasons, the road becomes an impassible stretch of marsh and muck.

 Kvaerner had to get 50,000 tonnes of material, everything from cement to construction vehicles to the mill itself, up that ice road during the two winter seasons available to them.

 Doing so meant hiring about 400 trucks, most former army vehicles now owned by the men who drove them, to make the three-day round trip between Omsukchan and Kubaka.

 John Hadden, a senior engineer at Kvaerner who headed the Kubaka project, estimates the truckers, hauling loads of about 15 tons, made as many as 3,000 round trips over the two shipping seasons. On one day during the second season, 250 trucks headed north out of Omsukchan. For each trip they made, the truckers insisted on a separate contract.

 We wrote 3,000 contracts with the truckers. That's the Russian way of doing things -- everything requires a contract.

 Most material came from North American suppliers -- North America is much closer to Kubaka than western Russia or Europe -- and was shipped by sea from Seattle to Magadan.

 Other materials came in from Alaska on regular weekly flights between Anchorage and Magadan. During the summer months, helicopters would be used to fly in materials being stored at Omsukchan. Because Kubaka has no airstrip, materials being delivered in warm weather months had to be flown from Anchorage to Magadan, trucked to Omsukchan and then flown by helicopter to Kubaka.

 We underestimated the difficulty of the logistics of getting stuff in time, says McColl. The air freight costs were much higher than anybody had anticipated.

 But McColl and Hadden see those mistakes as lessons learned, and say Kvaerner has no intention of backing away from Russia.

 Kvaerner is in the midst of preparing a bankable feasibility study for a proposed silver mine near Omsukchan, which is 70% owned by Pan American Silver Corp. of Vancouver.

 It recently completed a feasibility study for Armada Gold Corp.'s Baley gold project in southern Siberia.

 And McColl expects to learn soon whether Kvaerner has won the contract to do a feasibility study for the Jerooy gold project in Kyrgyzstan, owned by a joint venture that includes Normandy Mining Corp.

 We can't afford to back away from Russia, he says. We have a very strong foothold right now -- this operation has done more work there than any other engineering company in the world. We want to keep it that way.


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:19
RETIRED SOLDIER (Grant) ID#347235:
Thanks but I am concerned about getting is INTO GERMANY. Shalom

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:17
crazytimes (Good going Farfel! (I think)) ID#342376:
I thought it was real. In one of F* posts, where he cut and pasted a previous Jujube post, the ID number matched. So I figured the fight was real. Unless Jujube is really RJ, as well as Farfel. RJ is a clever one ( as well as Farfel ) I could see him doing that. OK, if Kitty Karlisle and Orson Bean were here now, who would they think told the truth? Will the real Farfel or RJ please stand up?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:13
Forklift (Asian markets) ID#156161:
Nikkei 225 up 2.76%; Hang Seng up 6.12%

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:12
Shek (PPT information) ID#287279:
Copyright © 1998 Shek/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Some quotes:
The government has a real role to play to make a 1987-style sudden market break less likely
In a crisis, a lot of deference is paid to the Fed, a former member of
the Working Group said. They are the only ones with any money. VERY GOOD ANOTHER

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:11
2BR02B? (grant) ID#266105:

Head crash, concatenated files.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:06
grant (Farfel, that you?) ID#432221:


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 22:04
Jujube (Okay, the truth) ID#252286:

Had you all going, didn’t I? Just my little impression of RJujube going berserk. It gets so slow on K2, I have to do something to keep people reading. I hope you all enjoyed the joke. Congratulations, Tyoung, you were the first to figure it out. A gold coin to you, my friend!



Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:59
grant (Retired soldier, here's the skinney for the inbound,courtesy Auric) ID#432221:
Copyright © 1998 grant/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Money and Other Monetary Instruments

There is no limit on the total amount of monetary instruments which may be brought into or taken out of the United States nor is it illegal to do so. However, if you transport or cause to be transported ( including by mail or other means ) more than $10,000 in monetary instruments on any occasion into or out of the United States, or if you receive more than that amount, you must file a report ( Customs Form 4790 ) with U.S. Customs ( Currency & Foreign Transactions Reporting Act, 31 U.S.C. 1101, et seq. ) . Failure to comply can result in civil, criminal and/or forfeiture penalties. Monetary instruments include U.S. or foreign coin in current circulation, currency, traveler's checks in any form, money orders, and negotiable instruments or investment securities in bearer form.

Gold coins, medals, and bullion, formerly prohibited, may be brought into the United States. However, under regulations administered by the Office of Foreign Assets Control, such items originating in or brought from Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and North Korea are prohibited entry. Copies of gold coins are prohibited if not properly marked by country of issuance.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:58
2BR02B? (donald's dept.) ID#266105:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:52
Roebear (jtaher, Retired Soldier) ID#412172:
Copyright © 1998 Roebear/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Remington made a .22 bolt gun that was near replica of their model 700 .30-06. It was a great shooter but has collectors value and may be expensive. Anyway, it would be a good way to train as long as .22 is same type of gun and action etc. As for converting to the .30-06 without losing skills I suggest a compensator. I have one I had made custom that drastically reduces recoil and can be dialed in to increase accuracy much like the BOSS that browning makes ( and now many others ) . Its a work of art but the smithy begged me not to put him through it again! If this is the way you want to go I am sure a good gunsmith could be found but you must go with the highest quality work. I do not believe the BOSS reduces recoil as much, but there are many varieties commercially available already installed on .30-06 guns. Also, an autoloader reduces recoil of .30-06 ( M-1 Garand, Remington and Browning have semi-autos ) but not as much as a compensator. A compensator increases noise to the shooter, use ear protection!
My apologies to non-gun folks, perhaps we who like to burn powder should have a guns and GOLD button!

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:51
RETIRED SOLDIER (Auric) ID#347235:
Thank you very much, however it says nothing about what the Germans will do when I take it there. Does anyone know the answer to that?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:46
crazytimes (@ cherokee) ID#342376:
Thanks for that link. I remember reading a web page called George Soros, evil incarnate that was similar. When I tried to access it a week ago, it was gone. So you think the Rothschilds have lit the fuse? If they did, there will be fireworks alright. If you think about it, there have never been this many people in the stock market with so much at stake. It could be considered the most monstorous trap ever created. No doubt the present day Rothschilds would want to outdo Nathan, it's in their blood.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:45
G-Nutz (thats all the Customs page says about it, so is gold a monetary instrument or not?) ID#433143:

Gold coins, medals, and bullion, formerly prohibited, may be brought into the United States. However, under regulations administered by the Office of Foreign Assets
Control, such items originating in or brought from Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and North Korea are prohibited entry. Copies of gold coins are prohibited if not properly
marked by country of issuance.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:38
Goldteck (The dollar's latest drift lower stems partly from concerns about U.S. loans to Latin America) ID#431200:
Copyright © 1998 Goldteck/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Recessions may injure dollar

By Don Knox

Denver Post Business Columnist

Sept. 6 - LONDON - You'll never guess who they're betting soon will be drawn into the rolling currency crisis.

That's right - the United States.

Sealing our apparent fate is the crisis' recent expansion to Latin and South America, a prominent economist here says. Where effects in the Far East were minimized ( too distant ) and Russia were ignored ( too Don Knox small ) , the sad fact is that fully 40 percent of the world's economies are this week in recession.

The dollar's latest drift lower stems partly from concerns about U.S. loans to Latin America. And nowhere is its decline more apparent than in pricey London, financial capital of western Europe.

Sinking and shrinking

The sinking dollar ( vs. the pound ) is shrinking pocket books in a serious way.

An already high cost of living is made intolerable by a currency rate near its lows of the past half-decade.

In Houston, I had a mortgage. Here, I'm renting a house for twice the cost, and it's half the size,'' says Patton Jones, who runs the Heathrow office of a U.S. aviation-services company, Source One Spares Inc.

The thing that's shocking is the living expenses. A sandwich in the U.S. is $5. Here, it's $11. Now we stay at home almost every night.''

Travelers on the new non-stop Denver-to-London flights, inaugurated last week by British Airways, noted the poor currency prices but generally said it wouldn't markedly influence their vacation plans. In England, dollar costs have bounced around during the past three months but have trended sharply lower since Aug. 15. Since 1992, they have been lower only once before - in fall 1996, and then only briefly.

For the year to date, the dollar also is lower vs. the German deutschemark, the Italian lira and the French franc. It is substantially higher only against the Russian ruble, which was devalued.

The divergence between dollar and pound came after a string of seven interest-rate hikes over 18 months in the United Kingdom that were meant to slow a booming local economy. It seems to have worked; the 3.6 percent growth rate of the year's first half is expected to slow to 1.5 percent growth in the second. It's cyclical rather than structural,'' says Paul Messyessi, oft-quoted senior economist in London for Deutschebank. The sterling follows the fortunes of the U.K. economy.''

The dollar's decline recently - against the pound and other currencies - is directly related to the global crisis, he says. Currency traders are selling to square their positions as they look to cut risk. Most are retrenching to their local markets.The traders are taking the view that the world is a chronically uncertain place today,'' Messyessi says. The dollar was seen as being a safe haven amid market crises in Asia and Russia. But now there is the small question of Latin America.''

Last week's devaluation of the Colombian currency signals that the contagion has increased, compounding pressure on the U.S. A detrimental trade deficit exacerbates the decline.

The dollar's strength in recent years even allowed the Federal Reserve to avoid adopting a tight-money policy to keep growth in check. Now, a slowing economy calls for an easing of credit, Messyessi says.

Ominously, that will further pressure the dollar.

Brazil a worry

Deutschebank's outlook is for more of the same: Continued declines in the dollar against slimmer declines in the pound.

Messyessi's forecast calls for a sixmonth range $1.60 to $1.68 dollars per pound. We're already getting fairly close to the top of the range.''

Don't look for interest-rate cuts in the near future - that's too aggressive, Messyessi says.

Don't expect the Federal Reserve to alter its current strategy of keeping the economy growing without intervention.

But do worry about Brazil.

Do worry about all of South America.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:37
Auric (RETIRED SOLDIER) ID#257312:

Here is US Customs page on currencies/Gold.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:34
Rack (Jtaher- .22 vrs the 30-06) ID#411163:
Any shooting is good for practice. Like retired Soldier said the recoil has to be gotten used to with the 30-06. One nice thing about the 06 is that you can sight it in at 100 yards to shoot 1.5 high and the gun will only be 12 low at 300 yards-thats if you shoot the cheap ammo-boattail ammo would be 8 low at 300 and 24 at 400 yards. Best get a bi-pod for the long range stuff though

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:33
cherokee ( ID#288229:

a gift from another....

in honor of mozel and haggis....and the truth...
do an internet search for this type of material
about these taskmasters and 'see' what is available....

read it, and bear witness to WHO and WHAT really pulls the
strings of ALL the peopleo.......ooowwwwwwwwwwwwww.
bookmark it.....the truth is VERY hard to find....


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:29
MoReGoLd (@Re PPT - Did You Know That - ) ID#348286:
When the DOW was plunging, Clinton was updated on an hourly basis. The white house is extremely concerned..........

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:25
crazytimes (@ BCYWN) ID#342376:
PPT is plunge protection team The notion that there is some secretive effort by the government to prop up the markets when they are in danger of crashing or falling too much. Most likely, by buying futures on Indexes or perhaps consulting with companies to buyback shares. ( such as IBM did in Oct 97 that turned the market around )

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:25
Goldteck (The Titanic was considered unsinkable when it slammed into an iceberg. ) ID#431200:
Copyright © 1998 Goldteck/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
What Brought the Bears Back?
Once Upon a Time, 'Goldilocks Economy' Was Just Right. No More.
By Steven Mufson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, September 6, 1998; Page H01
The Titanic was considered unsinkable when it slammed into an iceberg. Bankers at a New York training seminar recently used that example as evidence that when a calamity is considered unthinkable, it becomes more likely. After all, why turn the ship away from the iceberg if the ship is unsinkable?

Last week, many young stockbrokers, mutual fund managers and ordinary investors smacked into an iceberg they had been lulled into viewing as unthinkable. Even though many companies' stock prices had been sliding for months, it took Monday's stock market swoon, when the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 513 points, to end several years of smooth sailing for investors. In a few flickers of an electronic stock ticker, about $2 trillion in paper wealth disappeared.

The market has experienced a really bad accident, and bad accidents require extensive repairs, said Steve Shobin, an analyst at investment banking firm Lehman Brothers Inc., who predicts a slow recovery in share prices.

What brought about last week's collision with reality? With the benefit of hindsight, a number of stars were aligned in the firmament to steer world equity markets into panic on Monday and into an unusually volatile week in U.S. markets overall.

One must start with the growing sense that U.S. equity prices were simply overvalued. Stocks were priced to perfection, analysts said, based on a view of the U.S. economy as a Goldilocks economy, running neither too hot nor too cold.

But the global turmoil is getting strong enough to hurt corporate earnings and call the Goldilocks story into question. That uncertainty about the future, as Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan noted in a speech Friday night, was enough to cause investors to pull back.

When that degree of confidence in the future is high . . . so are the prices of equities, Greenspan told his audience at the University of California at Berkeley. But when the future becomes sufficiently clouded, he added, human psychology is such that people stop committing money for investment.

The ratio of stock prices to corporate earnings, historically in the mid-teens, touched 30 earlier this year, a level that could be justified only by continued rapid growth in corporate profits. Before last week, the shares of companies such as Coca-Cola Co., Warner-Lambert Co. and Microsoft Corp. could drop by half and still sell for multiple what would be considered historically high. Even at the end of such a damaging week, and with a 17.9 percent drop since July 17, the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index were selling for an average of 23 times earnings.

It's like the Road Runner cartoon, said James Angel, a professor of finance at Georgetown University. The coyote runs straight off the cliff, looks down and realizes there's nothing below him, and falls dramatically.

Another factor was the creeping concern that the U.S. economy cannot remain immune to the economic ills of other nations. Though parochial American investors paid little attention more than a year ago to the unraveling of Thailand's currency, the baht, its fall touched off a vicious cycle of economic woe. July 1997's losses in Thai currency swaps, Bangkok real estate and Thai stock markets spread late last year to Malaysia, Indonesia and eventually South Korea, until then the world's 11th-largest economy.

Thailand lit the match, said David S. Berry, a bank analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc., a New York-based securities firm. We all talked about how Thailand wasn't very important. Then Indonesia and Malaysia happened. Then South Korea made people sit up, but we put together a lifeline and everyone congratulated themselves about containing the Asian crisis.

The congratulations were premature. Asia's problems were deeper and more serious than people in the United States could guess. Asian economies went from being the world's fastest-growing into a free fall, making a mockery of the International Monetary Fund's late 1997 forecast for slow but continued Asian growth. Most important, Japan, the world's second-largest economy, was stagnating, and the government seemed incapable of making the tough decisions needed to fix the country's ailing banking sector.

Investors began seeing the flip side of the globalization of the world economy. The Asian crisis undermined the world's fastest-growing market for certain U.S.-made products, such as computers and specialized machinery. It also cut costs for many Asian manufacturers and thus created cheap exports to compete for the U.S. market with both American firms and firms in other developing countries.

In late June, eight months after the Asian market panic of October 1997, Citibank's vice chairman, William R. Rhodes, gave a speech to analysts in which he warned that the second stage of the Asian crisis was taking hold. If Asia had the flu, however, Russia would soon sink into a coma. In August, the Russian government's defense of the ruble crumbled and Russia defaulted on $38 billion worth of debt.

Though Russia's economy is roughly the size of Denmark's and not considered a crucial part of U.S. trade relations, Moscow's decisions dealt a blow to major banks, whose stocks dropped by about 25 percent in one week after several of them disclosed Russia-related losses, and raised fears that the Asian contagion was spreading ever further. Russia wasn't the cause of last week's plunge in the U.S. stock market so much as it was the last straw.

The troubles abroad are contributing to and coinciding with a slowing of U.S. growth. Analysts in the United States have noted that profit growth at U.S. firms is leveling off. Some of the biggest categories of U.S. exports -- vehicles, electrical machinery, office machinery and chemicals -- dropped during the first half of the year, largely because of Asian woes. Rising U.S. labor costs are starting to add to the profit squeeze, and for many multinational firms, the strong U.S. dollar reduced the significance of earnings overseas.

Looking forward, there is little, if any, relief in sight on any of these fronts, a Salomon Smith Barney analyst wrote before last week's crash. Consequently, this year's squeeze on corporate profits will extend into 1999. Given how swiftly the market punishes firms that fail to meet profit forecasts, that was sobering news for investors.

Market prices are a mix of psychology and economic reality. And political uncertainties have added to the market uncertainties in recent weeks and damaged market psycho logy.

Russia's government is virtually leaderless. President Clinton has been preoccupied with the Monica Lewinsky scandal. German Chancellor Helmut Kohl is fighting for his political life. Japan's leadership has seemed incapable of grappling with the country's banking problems, and South Korea's unions demonstrate frequently to protest economic restructuring. Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress is balking at providing the IMF with money, and the international agency has almost run out of funds.

Last week, it all came home to roost. Monday's rough day on the stock market turned into a rout in the final hour that erased the last of the year's gains in the major stock indexes.

On Tuesday, stocks roared back, and the Dow recovered almost half the ground lost Monday. On Wednesday, however, the market seesawed, finishing down modestly, and Thursday and Friday saw further losses. For the week, the Dow was off 5.1 percent. The technology-laden Nasdaq Stock Market was down 4.5 percent. The performance was especially dramatic because interest rates remained low, which over the past couple of years has sent most investors looking for stocks that might bring higher yields.

Perhaps no stock symbolizes the change in stock market sentiment more than Travelers Group Inc. On April 6, investors hailed the announcement of a merger between Travelers and Citicorp. The Dow sailed past the 9000 level for the first time, and Travelers stock hit a high of $73 a share. But last Monday afternoon, Travelers revealed net losses of $150 million at its Salomon Smith Barney unit, an announcement that sent the already-plunging market into its final spin. Friday, Travelers closed at $39.06 1/4, down 46 percent since the merger announcement. Travelers Chairman Sanford I. Weill himself lost about $702 million on his own stake in Travelers, analysts estimate.

The wild week forced many people to take stock and realize that while blue-chip stocks were down almost 20 percent from their July 17 highs, most stocks were down much further and had been dropping since April.

Many young brokers who hadn't lived through a downturn were taken aback by the ferocity of the week's sell-off.

This is not to be seen as anything less than a crash. People are selling indiscriminately, said one dejected but unbowed high-tech broker. I don't buy that we're heading for an economic collapse in this country and that's what the markets are telling us. He called this a buying opportunity and said we'll look at this time as a frivolous speck in the next couple of years.

Other businesspeople weren't surprised. It's unnerving, but pricing was getting awfully high, said a venture capitalist from Kentucky. No ladder goes to the sky. It is more attractive to build for the long term now.

While some in America chalked up the week to the whims of the market, many people overseas were less forgiving. Malaysia's prime minister ousted his rival and well-respected deputy Anwar Ibrahim and closed off the nation's currency markets. Even as market capitalism was celebrating its triumph over other economic systems, it was betraying its faults.

We're living through a period where markets are not giving very accurate information like they taught me in microeconomics, said Berry of Keefe, Bruyette.

It remained unclear at the end of the week whether the market plunge would throw the U.S. economy off track by damaging consumer confidence and giving people pause before buying new homes, cars or other major items.

Greenspan indicated in his Friday speech that he was worried about that possibility and hinted that the Fed would likely lower interest rates to help spur the economy if the global turmoil worsened and appeared as if it might pull the U.S. into a recession. He noted that in just three years, gains from the stock market added about $6 trillion to U.S. household net worth, making people feel wealthier and more inclined to spend than save.

It is difficult to explain the recent record level of home sales without reference to earlier stock market gains, Greenspan said.

Investor confidence has been shaken, but will individual investors remain as calm as they did during the crashes of 1987 and 1989?

What happens next is anyone's guess, Angel said. You can expect some days of very hard rallies as well as hard reversals. Where the market is going to end up a week, a month, or a year from now is just about anybody's guess.

© Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:24
Donald (There is no sign that Greenspan is going to give the market the quick fix it wants.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:22
Lurker 777 (Spot Gold UP .90 @ $288.00) ID#317247:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:22
PooBoy (PPT) ID#222209:
Plunge Protection Team: Made of Alan Greenspan and Robert Ruben. They are in charge of keeping the stock market up so Clinton stays high in the poles.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:21
Nick@C (Aussie gold shares) ID#386245:
UP 5%+
Good start to the week.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:15
Lurker 777 ( Spot Gold UP .70 @ $287.80) ID#317247:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:15
ray (State of the dollar) ID#409286:
Copyright © 1998 ray/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I wrote this a few weeks ago on anothear msg board and things in this world change fast. Still think it matches current disscussions:

The state of the dollar

as you pointed out, the dollar is strong due to US technology, resulting in a booming economy.

I would like to start with the assumption currencies are as strong as their ability to pay debt. Normally this is based on debt as a percentage GNP/GDP ( I don't know what the exact number is, Speete would
be the man to ask, but I think it is less than 3% ) . While at present the US has good ability to pay, what is the US's ability to pay debt in the future?

As good as we think are ability to pay debt is, it is not as good as it appears.

First off, let me express my view of deficit. While our government states the deficit is balanced and is currently planning ways of spending future tax receipts which is estimated at a surplus of $100 billion.
The bulk of surplus budget is based on capital gains. The whole budget gets thrown out the window as soon as the stock market drops. I think from the top of the market to the close as of yesterday ( 500 point drop ) , The total loss was something like 2 trillion ( $600 billion yesterday alone ) . 20% ( capital gains ) of 2 trillion is $400 billion. So now we have a $400 billion tax loss + $ 100 billion ( budget surplus ) = $500 billion change in the budget. Realizing this is only speculation and the market may bounce back, and also this is only a round about estimate ( B.S. ) . Still, serious consideration should be given to the ramifications of the ability to pay debt and the venerability of the dollar with a market drop.

Now couple this with the $200 billion trade deficit. Granted, countries under currency crises require dollars. But, once the dollar cracks, these additional dollars will be sold. The US cannot continue to
buy everything on credit and not expect ramifications of its' ability to pay debt.

An interesting thing about derivatives ( which I admit I don't understand ) , is that it caused several mutual funds to go bankrupt last week. These funds had something like 7% of their portfolio invested
in derivatives, the Ruble devalued so fast in Russia that loses in derivatives magnified to the extent it bankrupted these funds ( I heard this on CNBC, unfortunately I can't document this, perhaps someone on this board can document this. ) . This is not even counting what the devaluation did to many of the U.S. banks. While many of the analyst point out that the U.S. exposure to Russia is not that
great and we should not worry. This is exactly why we should worry. Latin American will be the next to fall and we have far greater magnification of exposure their than we had in Russia.

Why will Latin American currencies fall? First off, These countries our competing/providing the U.S. many of the same goods and services as Asia. Latin American is losing the competition; How can
they compete with countries 2000 miles away who have devalued their currencies to half the value of Latin America. Secondly, What would Latin American have to do to keep their currencies strong. Answer, raise interest rates. However, by raising interest rates, Latin America would place negative impact on the economic activity at the very time they are competing with the world for goods and services. Raising interest rates would, in time, put them into recession and ultimately they will still

At this time most of Latin American is barely paying debt. Take for example Mexico: Much has been said of what a great job they did four years ago. They did what the IMF said and restructured debt
and took recession and saved themselves. Guess what, four years later they are struggling with debt.

Now comes the part of devaluation, If one of these countries devalues, competition among each other will force all to devalue. How will the U.S. economy and especially the U.S dollar be effected by devaluation of Latin
America. First off, has happened in Russia to US banks, investors, mutual funds will happen TEN FOLD in Latin America. I do not know the extent of US investment in Latin American, although I do
not it is substantial. Derivatives are new to the world and I don't think anyone knows the extent trading in derivatives will have in causing calamity. However, by understanding Russia and Asia, we can
understand how fast bankruptcies can occur. One of the oldest banks in England ( forgive me as I have no idea what bank, as I'm writing this from memory ) went bankrupt trading derivatives in Hong Kong last year. How can a 300 year old bank go bankrupt trading from a branch office even if the manger was derelict in his duties?

Now analyst like to say that only one third US economy is export driven and as a result our economy is not threatened by the world economic crisis. I tend to differ. 30% of $7 Trillion GDP trade deficit is $2
trillion in exports ( not sure one can assume this, however if you look at the trade deficit as 10% of the total trade you come up with the same number of $ 2 trillion, $200 Billion/10% = $2 Trillion ) . Now
approximately 30% of the U.S. exports are to Latin America. Say Latin American currencies devalue 10%, Which means 10% less buying power which constitutes $60 Billion less in exports for the U.S.. Put another way, this adds $60 Billion to the Trade deficit. Instead of having a $200 Billion trade deficit, we now have a $260 Billion trade deficit. Were talking only 10% reduction in currency, what happens to the dollar if Latin America devalues 50%. How many banks and mutual funds will be
crushed. What will the dollar do. If this happens, Where will all the foreign investment go. I tend to think Tony Bull is right. If this happens, it is going to be sudden.

I'm not sure I'm right as everything you said about the dollar is correct at present. Perhaps what I say is nothing but B.S. based on B.S.. But if I'm only half right, were in a pile of sh*t. Deep sh*t.


Responce to a poster asking if I used un realized profits or realized profits:

You are correct, Realized profits and my mathematical model just used paper profits. But also loses against profits should also be identified. If one has only losses, one is only allowed to deduct $3,000/year on those loses. I was only tying to stress a point, that the budget would get clobbered with a sharp drop in the market.

To do a correct forecast for a stock market drop one would have to get the congressional budget forecast on capital gains. Actually, the best way would be to get the last ten years of capital gains data
from the IRS and use linear regression using multiple slopes to obtain a mathematical model leaving the % stock market gain/loss as a variable ( would have to get the book out for the proper terminology ) .
You end up with something like this.

Total Capital Gains taxes Received = ( % Market gain/loss for the year ) X ( Slope from your model for profits ) + ( % Market gain/loss for the year ) * ( Slope from your model for profits-losses ) + ( % Market gain/loss for the year ) X ( Slope from your model for losses ) .

Sorry, don't have time to do the proper math, either does congress.

All my numbers could be off by as much as 50%, The part about Latin America was off by 60% based on another post. The point I was trying to make was the logic, not the math ( the math was used to visualize the logic ) . This logic could very well be B.S. based on B.S. from a burned out engineer.



Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:15
MoReGoLd (Hmmmmmm --- Short covering ? --- Wait for Gold) ID#348286:
Sunday September 6, 9:06 pm
Dollar Falls More Than 2 Yen In Tokyo From Early High To Trade At 132.55 Yen--Traders

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:13
AZAU (Puetz) ID#247273:
Copyright © 1998 AZAU/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I agree with your research and conclusion about PPT. But, it may in
fact delay the outcome. And, since there are many diehard brokers and
this-time-it-is-different disciples out there, they will only capitulate
when forced to by the margin calls of which you speak. Those mechanics and technical forces will drive the market, which has heretofore been driven by spin and hype. Remember, our financial industry is now engaged in what they criticize the Japanese for having done, i.e., hiding the losses. Delay, delay, and maybe we can cover. So, timing of your call may be affected, but probably not the outcome. IMHO


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:11
BCIWN (What do the letters) ID#206298:
PPT stand for?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:08
Puetz (Gold prices) ID#222167:
Copyright © 1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Ray: A some point, gold prices will take off because investors
will want something the can own where they don't have to worry
about the return of their asset. Gold isn't a credit-market
instrument -- where you have to worry about someone repaying
you. In the developing deflationary environment, that will
be a big plus.

I don't have a definite timetable for when the price-rise
will start, or how quickly it will start. Predicting a
bull market is not as easy as predicting a crash ( like
stocks now -- over-valued and over-leveraged ) . Although
the sizeable short position via gold loans suggest that
the initial gold rally could be very powerful.

If the developing financial crash doesn't immediately
ignite the precious metal fire, it shouldn't be long
after that when they finally take off.


Steve Puetz

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:08
Gusto Oro (Malasia...) ID#430260:
only up 12.60 now. Asia 50% red so far.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:07
Realistic (@Puetz) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

You mentioned earlier today that margin call liquidations are a trigerring effect of the coming stock market crash that will materialize this week.

You also metionned it to be an important reason of the crashes that were supposed to occur last year but instead, record new highs were reached.

Do you some possibilities that the same thing could happen again this time?

Thank you.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:06

The first round of margin calls creates massive forced sales. These forced sales cause prices to drop, causing more margin calls. The process feeds on itself until the markets have crashed and the leverage has been mostly liquidated. The story is always the same. This time will be no different.

A Halloween Massace on Wall Street still looks highly likely. Watch out for October 31st. Once the support at DJIA 7500-7600 is broken, the crash will be confirmed, the panic will start. I believe that could happen tomorrow -- October 27th.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:07
RETIRED SOLDIER (Auric) ID#347235:
I have sent other less sensative items to my destination USPS has made me fill out customs declaration each time.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:03
MoReGoLd (@Market Update from AUSI, Gold up in Asia ) ID#348286:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Banks, golds help Australian stocks open higher

Gold NY 286.85 Asia 287.30

SYDNEY, Sept 7 ( Reuters ) - The Australian share market opened firmer on Monday as hopes of a U.S. interest rate cut improved market sentiment and buyers went bargain-hunting in the resources sector.

The All Ordinaries index was 23.6 points higher at 2,527.6 by 10.15 a.m. ( 0015 GMT ) on low turnover of A$49.5 million.

``There seems to be some overseas money coming into our resources sector again,'' said broker Tony Russell of Morgan Stockbroker.

``A lot of people are talking about the resources sector, and the gold sector in particular, being very undervalued and people are trying to buy at the bottom now,'' he added.

Gold stocks jumped 4.4 percent, boyed by the higher bullion price around US$287 an ounce. The banking sector improved 1.5 percent on the back of the bond market's response to comments by U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, suggesting the next move in U.S. rates would be down.

( Note: this article is ``in progress''; there will likely be an update soon. )

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:03
Lurker 777 (Grant thats nothing, Look at Malaysia! UP +16.60%) ID#317247:
Malaysia KLSE Composite ^KLSE 9:07PM 423.78 +60.34 +16.60%

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:00
RETIRED SOLDIER (Grant) ID#347235:
To the best I have been able to find out U.S. Customs is not interested in amounts of $10,000 or less, I called them though trying to find out what the Germans would do and they didn't even try to help, told me to call the Consulate, I did and found them closed for Labor Day Weekend!!! Thought it was our Holiday not theirs!!!! We dont take German Holidays off when working over there!!

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:00
Realistic (Important week ahead) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Just quickly checked things out around the world and so we are watching signs of another huge crash supposedly starting this week.

Let's be on alert and on our toes.

S&P: Up 650 right now on Globex. Kind of a strong start but yeah I know it's still very early in the week. Let's keep watching...and we'll be watching this week unfold very very closely, we are talking about a major situation here because there could be a drop of 1000 points ( !!! ) according to Puetz. It is a huge drop. Not to mention what's in store for the week after.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:06

Next week, I believe the DJIA could fall 1000 points. The
week after ( week ending Sept. 18 ) the DJIA could fall
2500 to 3500 points.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:00
Puetz (Plunge Protection Team -- Interest Rate Intervention ) ID#222167:
Copyright © 1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The PPT Team won't be able to stop a crash. In every great
mania, there has usually been some type of informal PPT
group with the intent of holding up the market if it ran
into trouble. In 1929 ( read my book Total Collpase ) , the
group of big bankers that pooled their funds to buy the
market whenever investors panic caused the phrase:
organized buying support to emerge as a phrase to restore
confidence to individuals.

The problem was, it worked for about a week the 1st time
organized buying support emerged. The 2nd time, it
worked for a couple of days. The 3rd time it was required,
the public realized it was no long-term fix, and they
dumped shares massively onto the organized buyers --
thus swamping their bids and making the buying inefective.

The same thing happened with John Law in 1720 ( Mississippi
Bubble ) . In fact, John Law bankrupted France by
purchasing over-valued Mississippi shares from the public.
And it didn't stop the collapse of Mississippi shares

PPT teams never work in the long-run. A market that is
over-leveraged and over-valued must come back to earth.
It is the urgency of margin calls that will force this
inevitable consequence -- no matter how low Alan Greenspan
lowers interest rate, and no matter what any actual or
informal PPT Team does to stop such a crash.


Steve Puetz

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 21:00
grant (Auric, sounds too easy,,,can you do that (legally)?) ID#432221:


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:56
Lurker 777 (Got Gold?) ID#317247:
Kitco has Gold UP .30 at $287.40

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:55
grant (Is anyone lookin at the Nikkei?) ID#432221:

Off like a rocket. gb

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:52
Auric (grant, RETIRED SOLDIER) ID#257312:

How about mailing the Gold coins to your destination?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:47
cherokee ( ID#288229:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee All rights reserved


get your guns out and shoot them.
it matters not as to the caliber.....start with open
sights.....when you can shoot the eyes out of a gnat,
and castrate a fly....then get a becomes
a reflex moving targets? i keep both
eyes open with open sights when....well...blasting some ass......
get a slug gun.....100yds...300+gr. 1-1/2pattern....
reach out and touch some one......the copper sabot slug....
that is the ticket....and very things will deflect or
stop it........yes......the copper sabot from a 12GA.....


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:47
Forklift (jtaher) ID#156161:
If one is a beginner, or very rusty, the rudiments
of marksmanship and safety can be transferred from
a .22 to any other firearm.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:46
grant (R. Soldier, I had a very similar ? about a week ago) ID#432221:

What would be involved in bringing say $5,000 worth of Phillies back to the US from Austria?
If you find anything out, let me know, and I'll do the same.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:45
Gollum (@crazytimes ) ID#43349:
I son't know about Asia, but look out for London.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:44
Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug (From the South China Morning Post) ID#432214:
Copyright © 1998 Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Monday September 7 1998

Precious Metals
Players switch stocks for bullion

Gold rose for a fifth day in New York on Friday,
gaining more than 4 per cent for the week, as
investors were lured from tumbling stocks markets.

Stocks fell in the United States on concern that
slowing economies would erode corporate profits,
encouraging investors to look elsewhere for a safe
haven for their money.

We've seen a lot of investor interest in gold [last
week], in part because people look at their screens,
read the newspapers and see what seems to be a
general meltdown in the world, said Bridget Fraser
of Bankers Trust.

People are watching the stock market with a morbid
interest because every man in the street and his dog
have something to lose - the focus was deflation
first, safe haven next and they want to be in gold.

Gold for December delivery rose US$1.80 to
$290.10 an ounce on the Comex division of the New
York Mercantile Exchange. December silver put on
eight cents to $5.03 an ounce.

In London interbank trading, gold for immediate
delivery soared $1.90 to $286.85 an ounce, while
spot silver gained seven cents to $5.025 an ounce.

In Hong Kong, gold improved HK$8 to $2,628 a tael
on Saturday.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:42
EJ (This guy suggests we do more for Russia because) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...the West's failure to help Germany recover after World War I, resulting in Hitler and World War II. But Russians are not Germans.

An interesting piece. Gotta run now but I'll be back later tonight.

Free market fallacies

By Robert Kuttner, 09/06/98

The swooning stock market, the East Asian collapse, and the Russian implosion have a
common genesis. All are casualties of the great illusion of our era - the utopian worship of
free markets.

Half a century ago the democracies of the West, chastened by two world wars and a
depression, by the brutalities of pure capitalism and the menace of communism, concluded
that a market economy needed to be tamed and domesticated, to coexist with a decent,
stable, and just society.

But the stagnation of the 1970s, the resurgence of organized business as a political force,
and finally the collapse of communism revived an almost lunatic credulity in pure markets
and a messianic urge to spread them worldwide.

Consider the East Asia crisis. For the most part, East Asia has productive workers and
firms, households with high rates of savings, even prudent government budgets.

Some countries did suffer from business-government cronyism. But what wrecked these
economies was their sudden exposure to international speculative forces beyond their

Financial speculators first overinvested in their currencies, stocks, and businesses - and
then abruptly pulled the plug. This sudden vulnerability, in turn, reflected ultra free-market
norms imposed by the United States and our proteges at the International Monetary Fund.

Obviously the real value of an economy does not fluctuate by 80 percent in a few months.
What fluctuates are the guesses of foreign speculators. But in an exposed economy, these
become self-fulfilling prophesies.

The US stock market is a casualty of the same naive market-worship. Just weeks ago,
prestigious commentators were still proclaiming a fundamentally ``new economy'' of
permanent prosperity, eerily echoing the 1920s. Supposedly, the combination of
deregulation, globalization, low inflation, and technology meant stocks had nowhere to go
but up.

In truth, the stock market got dangerously overvalued because markets often misvalue
things. Markets misvalue human labor, education, and universal health care; they misvalue
clean air and water. And, occasionally, euphoria breaks out and markets misvalue stocks.

Ironically, what has saved the stock market from even steeper collapse is that nemesis of
financial-market purists - the good old capital gains tax. Investors are riding out the down
market rather than paying a tax on what's left of their gains. The same free-market
fundamentalists who considered globalization an unmitigated plus now offer this
contradictory reassurance: The contagion won't seriously damage us because America is
still relatively isolated compared with the poor suckers who took our advice and are now
more globally exposed than we are!

Alas, America is no island. Calamity in Asia, Russia, and Latin America, in part the fruit of
our own ideological exports, can't help but affect the United States and Europe. The most
dangerous of all these events is the collapse in Russia. It recalls the West's failure to help
Germany recover after World War I, resulting in Hitler and World War II.

The United States spent $9 trillion to win the Cold War. But once communism collapsed,
we concluded that market forces would do the rest. Western aid to Russia peaked at just $2
billion a year, a tiny fraction of postwar Marshall Plan aid to Europe.

There was a historic moment, in the early 1990s, when a ``grand bargain'' with the
emerging post-Soviet Russia was on offer. With serious aid we could have helped true
reformers build an effective democratic state and a modern mixed economy. Instead, the
Russians got laissez-faire gangster capitalism. Today, weirdly, the most effective
opposition is the Communist Party.

Economic reconstruction after World War II accepted the necessity of a mixed economy. In
that era, the United States and the International Monetary Fund recognized that emergent
economies could not be the prisoners of private speculative capital.

The postwar system regulated private money flows and stabilized currencies to allow
nations to develop. Today's IMF perversely demands exposure to speculators as a
precondition of assistance.

Increasingly, nations like Russia and Malaysia are imposing unilateral and defensive
controls on capital. But instead of being part of a coherent system of stabilization and
development that includes necessary buffers, these ad hoc moves are isolationist and
destabilizing. Until the economic priesthood of the West revises its ultra-market view of
free financial flows, more such moves will follow.

What we need is a program of stabilization and reconstruction in the spirit of the post-World
War II years, with limits on speculative money flows and more development aid.
Sometimes it takes a crisis to change official thinking. Let's hope conventional wisdom
shifts before crisis turns to catastrophe.

Robert Kuttner's is co-editor of The American Prospect. His column appears regularly in
the Globe.

This story ran on page C07 of the Boston Globe on 09/06/98.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:41
crazytimes (Here's my thought...) ID#342376:
The PPT ( if it exists ) has some control over the US Markets, but are powerless over others. If the dollar continues to drop, and or, global markets tank tonight and tomorrow, it could really set off panic as our markets are closed tomorrow and there is no way out until Tuesday. I wonder if there could actually be some contrived plan by Asia or whoever to take advantage of this. I think I've been hanging out on Kitco too much. My mind wanders onto conspiracies very easily now.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:41
Puetz (Margin Calls) ID#222167:
Copyright © 1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Panda: I read Abelson's column about the bank not making a
margin call. Recent derivative problems have shown that
this case is somewhat normal.

That's what I mean when I say the triggering event has
already occurred. Especially among unlisted derivatives,
there aren't always good ways to value these illiquid
pieces of paper.

Sometimes, trades don't take place for many months. If banks
use the last trade method of figuring current values, they
can be grossly out of whach with current conditions. Even
if they used an average of current bid-ask prices, this still
may not be accurate if they are forced to sell at the bid,
and there is a wide range between bid and ask prices.
Finally, the bid may be a request for a small volume and
may be an innacurate indication of the value of a derivative
if a large volume was sold in a distress situation.

So, once again, I say the triggering event for a crash has
occurred. Now, the banks need to find out how bad their
derivative exposure is, and liquidate the necessary securities.


Steve Puetz

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:40
kitkat (@Rob - K2) ID#208393:

Do NOT go there unless you are prepared to enter the schizoid mind of a crazed bug. The site used to offer comic relief, now it truly frightens.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:39
RETIRED SOLDIER (Still need advice) ID#347235:
If any body answered whether or not I will have trouble importing my Maple Leafs and American Eagles into Germany I missed thier post.
To be prudent I pland to sell off any in excess of $10,000 so I wont have a problem with U.S. Customs. I am leaving in about three weeks would appreciated comments from anyone with recent experience. Shalom

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:33
Rob (crazytimes) ID#412273:
Crazytimes, that kitco site has always been trash. I never go there.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:32
TYoung (F*=RJ...any more I don't know.....K-2 caos....?) ID#370218:
nite...nite good folk.


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:26
Speed (Globex is open and the dollar is dropping) ID#29048:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:25
Speed (goldfevr @ currency & gold conversions) ID#29048:
Try this:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:23
crazytimes (@ rob and K2) ID#342376:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:23
goldfevr (rhody's lease rates) ID#434108:
Copyright © 1998 goldfevr/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
how old are lease rates
are they as old as gold?
are there no times thru-out history where gold did not 'spike' up,
when there were no lease rates even in existence?

what about that old addage: never swing on a single branch?

couldn't lease rates be just one indicator of gold market direction?

Wouldn't it be prudent to weigh & value a series or collection
of determining timing....
rather than swing on a single branch ?


I'm sure you've doneso before, but would you be good enuf to offer a short, simple definintion and explanation
of lease-rates,
and the lease-rate 'makers'. ...
Are 'they' the 'gods' of the gold market?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:15
goldfevr (constantly updating, current gold prices? (gold is the weapon of peace)) ID#434108:
( and it doesn't require 'practice' .... only commitment )

Does anyone know a good web-site,
where one might follow the continuously updating price of gold
in U.S. dollars,
on Asian markets, and then in Europe, and then in the U.S. ? ....
since Bart's kitco chart-page is not always updated to current
world markets.
Many thanks,

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:15
rhody (@ ALL: We are having a fine arguement about whether this is) ID#411440:
Copyright © 1998 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
a secular bear, and will it take down all stocks including gold
equities, and whether gold has bottomed and finally turned up.
The chartists say it is too soon to tell.
The traders say secular bears take all stocks including golds.

Lease rates are still at all time lows ( 0.4% ) for one month gold.
This means that there is nearly free gold to available to short any
significant rise, but few speculators are actually borrowing gold to
short it. This means huge liquidity in the gold market. This is
hardly the conditions for the start of a gold bull. It is the
conditions for keeping gold near or at its lows.

I will repeat, there has never been a gold spike without one month lease
rates rising first. One month lease rates are low and stable.
A gold bull is characterized by a rapid rise of one month lease rates
to 3% or more, and a corresponding drop in forward rates to under 2.4%.
Forward rates are over 5%. This is not a bull IMHO.

Gold is firming, but unless the general public begins to buy physical,
on top of normal demand or until gold production falls further, there
will be no bull as the shorts will knock any significant rise back
down with ease. After all, shorts can borrow gold to do it at
only .4%. If the Fed eases interest rates, that would improve things
by dampening the gold carry. Every indication is that the Fed will
hold rates up until the bubble deflates more. That means the gold
carry, and low gold prices are still on.

I will make a bet with you. Any attempt by gold to pass $300 will be
met by a massive short attack, if it even gets that high. I wish it
was not so, but lease rates say it is.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:14
Rob (K 2) ID#412273:
What is K2 ? I've been on this site for years and never heard of it.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:12
Auric (Panda) ID#257312:

I'm guessing that the White House inner circle is divided over the scorched earth policy of using the info in FBI files and private eye investigations. Do they release all the dirt? There are risks in doing so, such as opening up Mena, Ron Brown and other suspicious deaths, etc. My congressman, Dan Burton, is probably an early victim, and meant to serve as an example. The utter corruption and criminality of the Federal Government would shock and stun most folks ( not Kitcoites ) . This is getting most interesting and entertaining! Best to have some Gold.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:09
RETIRED SOLDIER (jtaher) ID#347235:
Not really no amount of .22 shooting will prepare one for the increased recoil of 30/06, best to practice with what you need for defense.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:09
arden (crazy) ID#257344:
Crazytimes - I glad you liked the site. I have watched the information presented there developed for the last thirty years. The guy is a PhD electrical engineer - excellent scientist- was building microcomputers in his basement the same time Steve Jobs was building them in his garage! Oh yeah, he's also my older brother.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:05
jtaher (To Kitco Gun & Gold Club:) ID#249409:
Hope I'm not too late to ask some advice from those who know
before the gun shop closes for another weekend:

I agree that there is no substitute for practice -
but is it possible to get lots of practice with a .22 rifle
( with cheaper ammo ) and have those skills transferrable to
my hunting rifle ( 30-06 ) ?

If so, what are ways to optimize my practice with the .22 to
make me more proficient with my other rifle ( eg use same sight
or )

Thanks in advance - and go gold

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:04
cherokee (, ID#288229:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee All rights reserved

check out the price of options into late '99.....
my oh my.........this is a natural see
the chaos and know the mantra of the richest
most successful investors in history.....

'buy the market that is overlooked, and in dis-favor......
the one that has no value......or possibilities.'

gold fits their description to a tee....the great robber
barons of the early 1900's would be buying pm's hand over fist....

the first wave has crashed upon the shores of the eagle....she flies
high and 'sees' that which cometh....the legacy of man....war and carnage due to greed and avarice....'woe be to man'.....she cries....


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:03
crazytimes (correction...) ID#342376:
Fight is on K2.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:02
panda (@) ID#30126:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:02
TYoung (DO NOT GO TO K-2...RJ/Jujubie...has had a F* attack...butt ugly...) ID#370218:
maybe a beer would calm him/her down?


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 20:02
crazytimes (One last post....I can't help it.) ID#342376:
The mother of all fights has broken out on K1. I don't need to tell you who's involved. I say this not for the spectacle of it, but there does appear to be a strange energy that I'm picking up on the web in general tonight. Perhaps there is much to the lunar eclipse. Global Markets have TWO days to affect what may happen on Tuesday here. If it's bad, maybe a crash really is in store. My apologies to arden. That site has good information but I couldn't help but comment on the heading. I didn't make that clear in my post.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:58
panda (You know....) ID#30126:
Being the worlds defacto reserve currency can be a b#$%ch sometimes. Poor AG, what a spot. RR still ranting about a strong dollar... Starr report due... Dem poo bulls. What to do? Sigh, how about a raaaalllly on a Fed rate cut? If it happens, could one be so inclined to sell the s*** out of it? Inquiring, or is that Enquiring, minds want to know.....

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:56
Inflation is already taking off with prices of many goods
leaping 50 percent to 100 percent over the past few days.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:49
panda (Gusto Oro) ID#30126:
What about the bank/brokerage that should have issued a margin call? To bad they didn't mention the name of the bank/brokerage in the article, I wouldn't want my money there either. Imagine having an realized gain on the books AND NOT COLLECTING IT because you don't know about it?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:45
Gusto Oro (Panda...) ID#430260:
I bet that evil underling won't be expecting a cigar for his work.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:41
Dyzd (Where can I get gold prices in Asia?) ID#22985:
Kitco doesn't have them right now. Thanks!

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:39
CPO@AU (Squirrel (finding fellow Y2K converts ID#280214) ID#329186:
Copyright © 1998 CPO@AU/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Yes the thought of being targeted fot stockpiling occured a while back My neighbour I trust & give him printouts including the conspiracy theories ( he is also a good source of History ex prof ) .
A few selected others get info but I was given a real suprise this week ~I visited my almost 11 year old daughter a couple of weeks ago and as ,to my suprise ,her mother on a prevoius visit was concerned about Y2K I brought a big bundle on her mother and I have great difficulty in agreeing anything.My surprise when my daughter said Daddy we are moving near to you ( from outside London ) I now have at least one of my Y2k worries reduced.

Today's Sunday business almost missed a y2k article one of the best for the UK, the writer stated everybody including the plumber should be concerned and also commented that Blair ( the pratt ) had left it too late.........and after all the waffle when he addressed the midland bank in march

Global awarness day was not aimed at joe Public for sure
at least silver is dissapearing from the coin dealers where I am so maybe a few are awakening

Take care
go Gold

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:38
panda (Gusto Oro) ID#30126:
The funny thing about the Barron's article was that the Fund Manager implied that some 'underling' must have bought that foul, evil, derivative thingee.... He wouldn't have done such a thing. Yup, I can hear it now... It's only a little white lie, look at Clinton. He lied and...... Ooopppps.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:37
Gusto Oro (Mnt. Bear...) ID#430260:
I had an internet account with schab, but they refused to trade my penny mining stocks except through their expensive brokers. At one point it cost me some dough, so I left. Also the net site was terminally busy whenever there was volitility and I would get bumped repeatedly trying to send trades. --AG

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:34
panda (Let's not forget one thing here...) ID#30126:
While the masses may not know to hold some gold, the few whom have much wealth know what assets to hold and what to fold. If stocks go to hell in a hand basket, unemployment climbs, trade deficit explodes, can the dollar and U.S. Bills, Notes, & Bonds be far behind? What asset is NO ELSES OBLIGATION? Why would you want to hold an IOU from someone who's credit worthiness is ... 'declining'?.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:34
TYoung (robnoel...if you have read any of my posts you know the answer....) ID#177105:
Tom : )

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:29
kapex (One last thing .............Bear markets want to take as many down) ID#218249:
with it as possible. As far Bob Prechter's target for gold, he had a target for the stock market TOO. ......Bull markets want to start with as few on board as possible.....Perfect scenario, everyone BELIEVES that it has further to go on the downside and it takes off without you! Be careful.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:29
Gusto Oro (Gagnrad Margin of error...) ID#430260:
I suppose there is some Mickey Mouse fine print there, but as long as I get my stock back, I can live with it. I'm considering taking a Greyhound down to Missouri to picket the main office if I don't.


I see what you mean. I bet that guy signed with fine print too. --AG

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:23
Highhopes (From BARRON'S (SEPT. 7, 98, p. MW12) ID#404410:
From Merrill Lynch latest Commodity Market Trends
The time to turn bullish ( on gold ) is when 300-400 tons of annual mine capacity is actually forced to close down...but that won't happen for quite a time, in our opinion, because mine costs in the Western world are now running at an average of around $230 an ounce.


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:23
Mtn Bear (SE) (@ Gusto Oro) ID#347267:
Who is present Broker, pray tell? And Why leave good ole Schwabee

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:21
kapex (Be careful in making assumptions that gold has to respond to global) ID#218249:
Copyright © 1998 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
deflation by tanking along with their stock markets. At the tops of any manias, many reasons are bandied about as to what caused the market to decline. Most ignore the fact, and this IS a fact, that when sentiment is all on one side, the market reverses itself. It begins to collapse under its own weight. Almost everybody here knows that just about everyone, is IN this stock market in one way or another. It is also true that most FIRMLY believe that You just invest for the long term. That this happens after 60 or so years of excesses and debt buildup beyond imagination is the reason that the complacency is so complete. I don't care what the Bull- Bear #'s look like because the individual hasn't or is about to get a rude awakening. That this happens 2000 points below the top is ominus indeed. IMHO it only confirms that we are in dire straights. A lot of you are wondering IF gold has made a bottom! Based on my take on sentiment in the PM's, I think that we are in for a moonshot!
The fact that BOLD aticles came out the day after the low was the kind of thing that you will look back on in the future and say to yourself, it happens every time, I just wish I wasn't so damn scared, or I would have bought more. Just don't ass-u-me that gold will deflate with everything else. You might be left holding your dollars and stocks!

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:19
panda (Gusto Oro) ID#30126:
Your situation is NOT FUNNY. Your situation was not what I was commenting on, ( the funds whom haven't received their margin calls yet were the subject ) . I have had problems with Schwabee in the past. If your stocks were transferred and you were not out on any margin, then SOMEBODY OWES YOU MONEY! The brokerage ( s ) screwed up royally if that was situation.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:17
gagnrad (Gusto Oro re broker mistakes) ID#43460:
When the dust settles and you win your suit with the broker would you let me come and work for you, cleaning your swimming pool? Unless of course you've signed an agreement in the fine print agreeing to binding arbitration. ( ;-^ ) )

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:15
Highhopes (Robert Prechter's Gold Call) ID#404410:
From BARRON'S ( Sept. 7, 98 ) page 48
Gold, silver and precious-metals stocks remain in the grip of the bear market. Gold has no support until about $180 an ounce. Delation is the unifying force behind these declines. They have a lot further to go. This is from his Sept. The Elliott Wave Theorist.

Note: if gold was to head higher ( ? ) from here, Prechter would probably miss the move he has been waiting for, since he is somewhat of a goldbug, but waiting for lower prices.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:12
gagnrad (squirrel and other members of the church of y2kology!) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Looking for something else ( color scanners and ocr devices if you must know ) I stumbled across a link which tells of a y2k device that is being sold and which people are putting into their 'puters even as we speak. I downloaded the test program and alas, my 'puter failed it. Not that I'd plan to rush out and buy their device. All the usual disclaimers apply plus one more: Ain't NOBODY gonna make ME eat 5 year old powdered eggs! Had too much of that in the service. I'd sooner boil up a mess of poke salad with a side order of home grown corn bread and tender fired squirrel first! Yup, if ALL the 'puters fail...well never mind. Go gold.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:12
Gusto Oro (Panda...) ID#430260:
It really isn't funny. My brokerage sold most of my utility stock the other day. When I asked my broker what's going on he said the stock was transferred to his firm on margin. I said I never bought any stock on margin and he said that's between me and Schwab, my former firm. Well I called Schwab and they said I never had any margined stock. I guess I'll find out more on Tuesday. And here I thought utility stocks were relatively safe. --AG

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:11
2BR02B? (Shek) ID#266105:

I like that Tolstoy quote, the infinite regressions mapping the

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:11
panda (@The ready...) ID#30126:
If Barron's is correct ( and I have no reason to doubt them ) , then the Bovine Scat has yet to truly hit the fan. WOW, Imagine being so lucky as not to receive margins calls... :- ) )

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:11
Mtn Bear (SE) (Gloom and Doom) ID#347267:
Copyright © 1998 Mtn Bear (SE)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gonna pull a Sharefin and post somethin from Avid ( NEVER in this world will I reach 1/100th of the usefullness of the Fin who Shares ) :

grizzly . . Sun, Sep 6, 1:22PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
One thing is for sure.. so many have said the stockmarket is the best indicator of the economy directly ahead and A. Greespan knows this and his comments should not be taken lightly. He sees the writing on the walls and is powerless to prevent it. As oleman says though it will be a horrible thing for Ma, Pa and the economy and even though I had always dreamed of being short for the big one I would rather get stampeded by bulls so that I may live in prosperous times. If we do 'crash' in the next two months then I had better catch a big piece of it so that I'll have something to live off of. My mother always said becareful what you wish for because it might just come true....How's that for doom and gloom.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:10
nuke (Price of Gold during a recession.) ID#389211:
If the US enters a recession in the near future how would this affect the price of Gold? I have looked at 1990 and 1991 historical gold prices and Gold held steady during 1990 when the Stock Market had a poor year and then dropped during 1991 when the US entered a recession.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:03
panda (Speaking of margin calls...) ID#30126:
Did anyone catch the article in Barron's about the fund manager who didn't realize that he had some 'derivatives' ( ? ) in his fund until they went to ZERO? Apparently he was more upset at the fact that he DID NOT receive a margin call from the bank on the other side of the deal than the loss of the money itself! He immediately ordered that NO TRANSACTIONS be done with that bank because, clearly, they didn't know what they had or didn't have for asset values.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:02
crazytimes (@ kapex) ID#342376:
Thanks for the Elliot Waves 101. I actually understood some of it. I better stop posting now, I'm having too much fun. I better quit while I'm ahead. So long....farewell.....alveiterseign ( sp? ) .....goodnight.....I hate to go....and leave this pretty site.....

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 19:01
2BR02B? (definitions) ID#266105:

Strong Buy- sell.

downgrade to Buy-- hey, it's 50% off.

Accumulate-- it's still trading.

downgrade to Hold-- sorry, we didn't see it coming.

Sell-- does not exist.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:58
Michael (Hey brother, can you spare a ruble?) ID#346404:
Copyright © 1998 Michael/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

AOL mentions Russia wants more GOLD:
ussia Seeking Help From the West

MOSCOW ( AP ) -- Russia still wants aid and cooperation from the West, acting Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin said today on the eve of a crucial meeting that could help determine the makeup and course of Russia's new government. He said Russia needed to at least double its gold and foreign currency reserves, ``hopefully through the ( assistance ) of the global financial system.'' His remarks were the latest effort by Chernomyrdin to reassure Western governments and Russian reformers that he hopes to avoid retrenchment into Soviet-style economic isolation, which some people have predicted.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:57
Ray (crash and the gold price) ID#411149:
Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:06
Copyright © 1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Here you made your current prediction the the stock market,
what is your prediction for the gold price. I have your book out to review
this evening.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:55
panda (Jim Dines declares the 'Father of all Bear Markets' has started...) ID#30126:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:53
crazytimes (@ arden) ID#342376:
Great link!! Yes, YOU too can cash in on Chaos! I love my moniker...

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:52
jims (Maybe a little prematurely excited) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I looked at weekly long term charts of Gold and The Yen. I'd like to post them here but doubt my machine will accomplish the transfer. If one looks at the yen one sees a double botton and a perfect rally this week to the major downtrend line. Similarly, if you look at Gold its rally was just an up move beyong the point of recent breakdown, just short of its major downtrend. Gold stocks, of course, were much stronger but it seems they are a little ahead of the physical.

Perhaps Mr. Peutz' senorio about a world finanical breakdown will happen now thatthe moon has done its thing, and that will lift the yen and gold above their downtrends giving a true buy siganl - we'll see.

What I like about PEUTZ's call is that we'll know in a few days ( not months ) whether he's all wet. ( Memories of last year )

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:50
kapex (crazytimes; This is what it means, fa so te do.) ID#218249:
Copyright © 1998 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Wave - a movement in the market, either up or down. The size of the wave depends upon the period of time that is being

Impulse Wave - a wave that moves in the direction of the main trend of the market. It subdivides into 5 smaller waves
( 1-2-3-4-5 ) . Waves 1, 3, and 5 move in the direction of the market's main trend. Waves 2 and 4 move against the market's
main trend. ( They are called corrective waves. )

Corrective Wave - a wave that moves counter to the direction of the main trend of the market. It subdivides into 3 smaller
waves ( a-b-c ) . Waves a and c move against the market's main trend. Wave b moves in the direction of the market's main
trend, but subdivides into 3 waves.

Types of Impulse Waves

Basic 5-Wave Structure ( 1-2-3-4-5 ) - if the main trend is up, wave 3 is higher than wave 1...wave 5 is higher than wave
3...and wave 4 does not correct below the top of wave 1. If the main trend of the market is down, wave 3 is lower than wave
1...wave 5 is lower than wave 3...and wave 4 does not correct above the bottom of wave 1.

Extended Wave - a complex impulse wave where one of the subwaves ( either 1, 3, or 5 ) further subdivides into 5 waves.

Failure - when the 5th subwave of an impulse wave fails to move beyond the end of the 3rd subwave...indicating a strong
and/or prolonged move in the counter direction.

Diagonal Triangle - a terminal wave ( often called a wedge ) , either a 5th wave or c wave, where the 5 subwaves subdivide
into threes ( a-b-c ) . Upon completion, there is usually a strong move in the counter direction.

Type of Corrective Waves

ZigZag - a corrective wave ( a-b-c ) ...where the b wave retraces only a part of wave a and wave c moves beyond the terminal
point of wave a. Waves a and c subdivide into 5 waves and wave b into 3 waves. ( Double zigzags are two zigzags in
succession connected by an x wave. )

Flat - a corrective wave ( a-b-c ) ...where the b wave retraces all or more of wave a. Wave a subdivides into 3 waves and wave
c may or may not terminate beyond the terminal point of wave a.

Horizontal Triangle - a corrective wave ( a-b-c-d-e ) ...which often develops after a very strong move in the market...with 5
subwaves, each further subdividing into threes, i.e., 5 successive corrective patterns forming a sideways pattern in the market
( more or less ) .

Combination - a prolonged corrective wave that combines into one larger corrective wave 2 or 3 corrective waves, which are
connected by one or two x waves. Two corrective waves connected by an x wave is called a double three. Three corrective
patterns, each connected by an x wave, is called a triple three. The x wave, like other corrective waves in the direction of the
main trend, subdivides into three waves ( a-b-c ) .

Other Elliott Wave Concepts

Wave Degree - each 5 wave and 3 wave cycle can be found to subdivide into waves of a smaller scale and/or be found to
comprise a part of a wave of a larger scale. Waves can be labeled in degrees which last only a matter of minutes or as long as

Parallel Trendlines - waves tend to channel between parallel trendlines. Depending on the time period analyzed the market
may channel between parallel trendlines on an arithmetic scale chart or on a semi-log scale chart.

Extent of Corrective Wave - generally, a corrective wave will take the market to the area of the 4th wave of one lesser
degree...especially when the corrective wave itself is a 4th wave. In other cases, the market will often find support at the top of
wave 1 of one lesser degree.

Rule of Equality - two of the subwaves of an impulse wave ( 1, 3, or 5 ) are often related equally in terms of price advance
and time.

Rule of Alternation - waves, especially corrective waves, tend to vary in complexity and/or type from one to the next.

Fibonacci - a series of numbers created by adding the last two numbers in the series to produce the next number in the series,
i.e., 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, etc. Successive numbers in the series relate to each other by the ratio .618 or 1.618. This
ratio has sometimes been called the golden ratio and underlines one methodology of analyzing the mathematical relationships
between waves.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:46
Bill El Zebub (Respects to you all . A lurkers question...Would an agressive move to ease) ID#261352:
alter the course of events? Talking heads are talking CRB bottom.
Is there anticipation of a war against deflation. Will it stop
DOW declines like those Puetz and Donald have posted? Will my
put options suffer and Au take off anticipating stagflation.

Your fiend, Bill.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:46
arden (In Mike's abscence) ID#257344:
Crazytimes - if you really want an insight into the eclipse stuff -

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:45
Gusto Oro (Puetz) ID#430260:
You really believe that all this gold and silver physical as well as paper stock I'm owning will make a move in the next few months? What exactly will make metals move as opposed to continuing to deflate with everything else. Thanks for your insight. --AG

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:44
Shek (crazytimes) ID#287279:
No doubt.
I am sure that she knows what is going on around the world. The question is why did she announce her bullishness? For political reason, to help her friends?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:43
crazytimes (@ kapex) ID#342376:
Do Me Me....Me So So....Ray Fa Fa.....La Te Te...

But what does it all mean?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:41
crazytimes (@ Where's Mike Sheller!!!!) ID#342376:
Still serving tea to James Whitmore? If you're out there can you give a brief comment or two on the lunar eclipse?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:40
kapex (Steve Puetz; I have the current wave count as wave 1 complete an ABC) ID#218249:
2, then a -1- and -2- of the 3rd, with the 3rd probably extending as another 1,11,111,1V,V. This being the crash portion of this FIRST 5 Waves down. Your thoughts.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:38
Grizz (I'd rather be a live pariah than a dead sheep) ID#424394:
Cases of beef stew and dried eggs ( they must've improved since my Boy Scout days ) and lots of guns and ammo to ward of the pariah-haters.
I also think I will buy some junk silver and some tiny Gold 10-Grainers so I have something to barter with - cuz they ain't getting my food or ammo.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:37
crazytimes (@ Shek) ID#342376:
Denial? Maybe, but I'm more inclined to think she knows how bad it could get.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:33
AZAU (Puetz) ID#247273:
Copyright © 1998 AZAU/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The analysis by Jim Bianco shows that at 7539 on the DOW, this grand pile of dough melted by 43%.....breakeven since 1990 is at 5474 on the DOW
...the average mutual fund investor doesn't really begin to hit the panic button and dump his fund shares until the magic breakeven point is breached....end of quotes from Jim Bianco. The Virtual vs. Real money[capital?] point as discussed by Gollum.

Looks to be consistent with your scenario.

What about government intervention, PPT? Provision of Liquidity, which the Fed has promised?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:32
Puetz (Astrologers) ID#222167:
Crazytimes: I don't follow any of the astrologers you
mention. In fact, I don't believe in astrology. What
I have found in the lunar-eclipse/market-crash connection
is a statistically significant correlation. What I don't
know is the cause of the correlation. I simply speculate
that there might be some type of connection between
changing gravitational fields and the thinking-process
of some individuals.


Steve Puetz

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:31
crazytimes (Shek) ID#342376:
I've got no sympathy for Abbey. She's looking out for her own self-interests and the interests of Goldman Partners, while potentially slaughtering Joe Sixpack that might pay attention to what she says. Although I concede that if she turns bearish now, the market may crash. She should have changed her tune some time ago. Olman posted on Avidtrader some weeks ago that Goldman's may be shorting their own stock to make billions instead of millions made on the IPO. Whatever is going on, rest assured Abbey will be making money and lots of it.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:25
Puetz (New Zealand and Gold) ID#222167:
Copyright © 1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Lurker 777: Now that the lunar-eclipse has passed, you are
already seeing the changed psychological effects in New
Zealand. The post-eclipse crash has started in far away
New Zealand. It will probably spread to Asia and Europe
as those markets open. By Tuesay morning, when US stocks
open, a rout could already be in the making . I believe,
somehow, the maximum tidal ( gravitational forces ) that
occur during a lunar-eclipse effect the thinking of a
large number of people. It was this delusional thinking
that helped create the Sept. 1 - 4 upward consolidation.
With the eclipse gone, investors thinking will become
more normal. They will realize the terrible financial
situation, and sell heavily.

Bonds will soon fail to be a good flight-to-quality vehicle.
When that happens, and it may have already started last week,
gold and silver prices will sky-rocket. That's because
the precious metals are the only sound, solid, and stable
moneyes ever used by mankind.

An eventual gold price well in excess of $3000 seems
likely to me.


Steve Puetz

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:25
Shek (crazytimes) ID#287279:
Could this apply to Abby and her views on stocks and gold?
I know that most men, including those at ease with problems
of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest
and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to
admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in
explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to
others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into
the fabric of their lives. - Leo Tolstoy

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:24
crazytimes (@ Puetz) ID#342376:
Do you follow Rebecca Nolan, Arch Crawford or Henry Weingarten? ( all Financial Astrologers ) I get Nolan's quarterly letter. She's got the market going up Tuesday and Wednesday, then down Thurday and Friday. She's not saying major correction till third week in October. Weingarten says market at 7000 on last day of the year. I'm not sure about Crawford. You seem to be more intersted in pinpointing crashes than day to day market trends though.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:19
Myrmidon (Timed coincidence?) ID#339212:

How many big millionaires are known who lost fortunes in the 1929 crash?
Those who saw the crash comimg sold out, exited the market and put their fortunes in the banks. They waited patiently...

When the market bottomed out, they switched from cash into stocks, THEN the banks closed! What a wonderful coincidence for the coup de grace to the masses!


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:14
Shek (crazytimes) ID#287279:
Abby is in a tough situation. Does she reverse herself? Or does she lose her clients money? At least Robert Rubin will do all he can to help her out.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:14
Puetz (stock market crash) ID#222167:
Copyright © 1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
AZAU: The trigger events have already taken place.
They are:

1 ) A large enough stock market decline to trigger massive
margin calls.

2 ) A long enough time-span ( 7 weeks ) to break down nervous
leveraged players. A leveraged speculator can take a few
days of stress, but if the past is a good guide, they cannot
take more than 7 weeks of repeated stress. We have now
reached the point in time where speculators will break
down and dump their leveraged positions onto the market
at any price -- just to get out of the market and relieve
the emotional stress.

3 ) Big banks are under tremendous pressure to reduce their
derivative exposure -- huge losses have already been reported.
The stock prices of most major US banks have been cut in
half. This pressure to liquidate is probably coming from
the CEOs of the major banks.

So, as you can see, the triggering events have taken
place. All that's needed now are the subsequent action
to be carried out. Those actions involve liquidating
massive amounts of leveraged positions. The consequence
of these actions will be the predicted DJIA collapse to


Steve Puetz

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:11
Shek (crazytimes) ID#287279:
Achetez le bas, vendez la haute, convertissez les bénéfices en métaux précieux, buvez du vin et riez des imbéciles ( Buy low, sell high, convert the profits into precious metals, drink wine and laugh at the fools. ) Cousin Luc-Christophe Tigana, Summer 1724

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:11
Lurker 777 (Steve Puetz) ID#317247:
What is your prediction for the price of Gold during and after the crash of the DOW?
New 5 year low for New Zealand: NZSE 40 6:12PM 1754.32 -34.75 -1.94%

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:07
crazytimes (correction) ID#342376:
contrarian investor should be contrarian indicator

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:07
Squirrel (CPO@AU - finding fellow Y2K converts who may become neighorhood pariahs.) ID#280214:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A lady come in the shop the other day looking for supplies and advice.
She was so relieved to find somebody she could talk to who shared her concerns about stockpiling and other preparations. She wanted to talk only when no one else was in the store. I think she had been getting the look from so many people that she was afraid to talk about the subject any more. She expressed concern about telling neighbors and friends - for fear of word getting out about her stockpiling and thus making her a target. But she also dearly wanted to help others too. We talked about the advantages of neighbors, friends and relatives having at least a year or two of food and supplies because they would be beating on her door if they didn't. For her I suggested FIVE years of food and supplies - especially since that could become one year or less when neighbors, friends and relatives showed up that she emotionally could not turn away.
She agreed that the hard times could last years or even a decade.
To make it worse for her, I suspect she also believes in the Biblical Prophecies since she is quite the evangelical Christian. But there too, she has no doubt gotten the look and has learned to keep her mouth shut about them - even to a fellow Y2K convert. People like her may become more and more shut out and shunned by their neighbors, friends and relatives as they are perceived as paranoid pariahs {until after Y2K}.
I gave her a copy of Toms Take and we likely will share more info.
{Too bad she is married, with kids and too religious for my mindset}

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:06
Gollum (Politicians) ID#43349:
People say that politicians lie and are hard to trust. Perhaps it is just that they speak a different language. I have found their pronouncements to be very reliable. As an example, if a politician comes on the air to say there is nothing to worry about, it means it's time to REALLY start worrying.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:05
crazytimes (Shek) ID#342376:
I just made a post over at the back up Kitco site on Silicon Investor about how Abbey Cohen could become the perfect contrarian investor. If the market keeps diving and she holds her position, she'll actually begin to cause the market to fall, not rise. Grandpa was smart.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:04
Shek (crazytimes) ID#287279:
Selling the bulbs before everybody sobered up made us look like geniuses. - Uncle Jaap Van Halteren, Spring 1724.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:03
robnoel ( are a lawyer...that be bad news unless of course you differ with ROR :-)) ID#396249:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:03
Puetz (Crash Pattern) ID#222167:
Copyright © 1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Donald: I know what you mean by the 1929 pattern. I believe
we will follow a similar pattern this time around. The only
difference I see is that the initial decline will be much
more severe than the 1929 crash.

We began this crash on July 17th with the DJIA above 9300.
At that time, the DJIA was at least twice as over-valued
as it was during August 1929. To get a dividend yield of
3% ( where the crash began in 1929 ) , the DJIA would have to
decline to around 5000.

To get a dividend yield of 6% ( where stocks stood at the
end of October 1929 ) , the DJIA would have to decline to
around 2500.

We are dealing with an animal that is much more over-valued,
and many times more over-leveraged than the 1929 beast. Hence,
the coming crash should be more severe. That's why I
believe we will over-shoot the 5000 projection based on
1929. DJIA 3000 seems more likely. Hence, a secondary
rebound to 7500 during the spring of 1999 seems too high.

I believe the DJIA could rebound to 5000 to 6000 early next
year -- but that's probably the upside.


Steve Puetz

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:59
AZAU (Gollum, Puetz) ID#247273:
These are all well said economic facts Gollum, regards.
Don't you believe that there must be a further trigger event for the scenario which you propose? Besides the moon and so on, no disrespect intended, but the translation to reality must take some form,
such as collapse of major banks ( JAPAN ) . Can you be more specific?
Comments, anyone?


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:59
Shek (crazytimes) ID#287279:

The more they pronounced the strength of the market and the economy, the faster we sold our stocks. - Grandpa Bill Roe, December 26, 1929.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:58
Donald (Monday morning in the Western Pacific) ID#26793:
New Zealand opens down 1.76%

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:52
Gollum (@mozel) ID#43349:

In a time of credit creation, favor equities. In a time of credit destriction, favor bonds. In a time of currency destruction, favor capital and other tangibles.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:51
TYoung (Gollum...out of the park...nice hit...) ID#177105:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:48
TYoung (mozel...even though I am an attorney...I love your posts...lighten up on some of us...) ID#177105:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:48
Gollum (@AZAU ) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Paper wealth is based upon illusion. The only real wealth is physical real wealth.

I have already discussed what happens when the illusion of how many dollars there are in the equity markets collapses and how it arose.

But the dollar itself is a kind of virtual wealth. And in a way is even more of an illusion than equity wealth.

An equity is at least a claim on the assets of a company, and the company may well have real physical assets as well as fiat dollar ones. So that iven if a dollar becomes worthless, the share of stock is still worth something. In the great hyperinflation in Germany the people who had their wealth in stocks still had about 25% of their buying power left after the Mark became worthless. People in cash or savings accounts lost everything, but people with real assets did the best.

When the confederacy lost it's war with the North. Confederate paper became worthless, but cofederate gold was still gold after all.

Wealth is based on faith. So long as people chasing tulip bulbs believe in tulip wealth it remains. When that faith evaporates so does the wealth even if the value of the guilder remains. But even the value of the guilder or the dollar is based on faith.

With equities no one is under any legal obligation to give you back what you paid for them, although they must share with you the uderlying companies fortunes.

With bonds they must give you back as many dollars as you paid plus interest on the time they were using those dollars.

With gold you have something that has shown it's ability to survive even the worst times. Putting wealth into gold is like buying insurance.
One shouldn't mind paying a premium on insurance. During boom times of great plenty the premium goes down. During times of deepest turmoil when even the dollar is at risk the premium goes up.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:47
Mtn Bear (SE) (Pictures) ID#347267:
Copyright © 1998 Mtn Bear (SE)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: Here is a word picture of how I feel about the maqrkets at this juncture: This is a one picture cartoon showing one of my favorite funny paper' cartoon characters, Hagar the Horrible. ( It is from some years back, wish I could post it here. ) --- Hagar, the Viking leader
is leading his motley bunch of battle weary troops up a VERY narrow mountain ledge; --- to the right is a precipice, a yawning ABYSS. The troops are tired and complaining, many are bandaged and bleeding from the last battle --- ( not unlike the yuppie fun mangers in the last
week or two ) . Hagar, the ever confident leader, cheers them on: Stop complaining, men; BETTER TIMES ARE AHEAD!!, he shouts. ( Kinda like Abby, yu know )
Unknown to Hagar, just beyond the next bend in the mountain trail, comes a HUGE GRIZZLY BEAR down the path.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:47
Donald (@Puetz) ID#26793:
If we were to follow the 1929 pattern, and I think we are, the next few days would have us at the level of Sept. 96, 5800. From there we would have a fast snap-back over two or three days recovering up to a level in the 6400-7000 range. The next four months would bring us back to where we are tonight. That is where the real trouble starts with a steady drop over two or more years down to below 1000, or 90% down from the top at 9300.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:41
crazytimes (This was posted over at S.I. ) ID#342376:
Copyright © 1998 crazytimes/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Industrial condition of the United States is absolutely sound ... nothing can arrest the upward movement - Oct 14, 1929
The markets generally are now in a healthy condition ... values have a sound basis in the general prosperity of our country. - Oct 15, 1929
Charles E. Mitchell, Chair of Citibank

I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher than it is today within a few months. - Oct 15, 1929
Irving Fisher, Professor of economics, Yale University.
[he was Abby of the day]

There is nothing in the business situation to justify any nervousness. - Oct 30, 1929
Eugene M. Stevens, President of Continental Illinois Bank

The fundamental business of this country, that is production and distribution of commodities, is on a sound and prosperous basis. - Oct 30, 1929
President H. Hoover

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:39
CPO@AU (Sharfin ( your markets & Charts and 2000 pages) ID#329186:
Just discovered them last week wow they are so well laid out and when anyone asks about gold its so easy now, I always enjoy your posts and like the look of your home to


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:37
mozel (@TYoung) ID#153110:
If you go to the X Y plot site for currencies and plot the ruble vs gold ( NY ) , you will see something astounding.

If you want to corrupt, confound, and destroy a nation, debase its money. Ours was fraudulently debased by Executive Order indemnified by legislation over decades and explained away by economists and by the success of the Greenback Empire in colonizing other nations. We are near the end of a long time.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:36
CPO@AU (CoolJing ID#343259 blindsided thats whats coming) ID#329186:
Copyright © 1998 CPO@AU/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Just heard Flight recorder on swiss flight has been recovered

Yes I find it strange when out and see families oblivious but will now only open the conversation on y2k if its brought up.
This happened 3 weeks ago a young man and his father have been trading import/export in Rusia 2 years or more no belief in Y2K appeared to be comfortable suggested he bought maple leafs His reply but there is no return .....................yes but this is insurance the discussion went on and i got a little drunker.oh well
I can quote large company budgets etc . the Barclay Brothers ( 2 fairly reclusive UK probably billionares ) the bought an island ( hunk of rock ) in the English channel several years ago now a fortress helipad etc.....they started early.
Bought some numanistics the guy e-mailed me and said he liked gold but all the central bankers were selling I replied with Sharfin's great page of links still waiting to hear if i have converted him..

And if i attempt to comment on klinton not being such a great guy I am told he has done a great job ( well at least my neighbour listens and buys gold and more gold and now got him into silver )
sorry for the ramble
Got gold got silver
and patience


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:29
Leland (@mozel) ID#31876:
Thank you for your 'reality checks'. Here is a complimentary

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:28
Squirrel (Cowgirl and all re barter with PM coins after Y2Kaos) ID#280214:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Silver's top end for a convenient coin is 1-ounce but more than a few in the pocket becomes darn inconvenient and hard on the pocket. A one ounce Silver coin currently is worth about TEN 30-06 cartridges or 5 gallons of fuel. There is a large gap between it and a 1/10 oz Gold coin which is worth 3 boxes or 60 rounds of 30-06. The proposed 10-grain Gold coin is currently worth a tad more than a 1-ounce Silver coin AND it will be much more convenient - a roll of 48 of 'em matches the Silver coin's weight. For portable wealth I'd carry junk silver for small change {1 quarter = 1 gallon of fuel}, a few dozen 10-grain Gold coins for most transactions, several 1/10 oz and a few 1/4 oz Gold coins for larger purchases and a some 1-ounce coins for long-range air or bus fares.
Total weight of the above - 12 ounces {half Gold and half junk silver}.
To save weight I'd go heavier on the 10-grain Gold coins and cut back on the silver. And just like a cash drawer - I'd rather have more $5 and $10 sizes {10-grain coins} and less $50's and $100's {1/10 oz and 1/4 oz coins}. The $500 notes {1-ounce coins with a little inflation} would break most business's ability to make change - even the 1/4 oz could make it tough unless you were filling up twin tanks on a motor home.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:24
TYoung ( cash in hand is debt based but I can spend it fast if required.) ID#317193: could have educated a bunch of people with that high fast ball to a high fast ball


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:22
STUDIO.R (@the view from my window.....) ID#119358:

we have now eclipsed the Bowl's record heat and lack of rain....we are allowed one swig o' water in the morning and a swig@dusk. My lips resemble those of the model airplane designer on the flight of the phoenix. i have loaded the mattress on the mercedes.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:20
TYoung (mozel...actually it's in a time of debt destuction, currencies based on debt...) ID#317193:
just go poof.


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:18
Gollum (@TYoung) ID#43349:
When the virtual money collapses, real money is king.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:18
crazytimes (@ Puetz) ID#342376:
Copyright © 1998 crazytimes/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I love this part:

The DJIA has now started the Panic-Phase of the crash.
Huge daily declines will become the norm. Panic, hysteria,
and blood-in-the-streets will become widespread.


Steve Puetz

You don't mess around! DOW 3000? I have to give you credit. Sticking your neck out like that takes guts, especially after all the flack you get. If your right it's the call of the century, even if your other predictions fell flat. I'd say good luck but DOW 3000? We'll all need luck if that happens. Anyway, anyone that can post on Kitco with such a severe prediction like that has my respect, if only for the courage.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:18
TYoung (mozel...knew I bought gold and silver this year for a reason...) ID#317193:
We watch...


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:16
Donald (This post for miners, not minors.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:14
mozel (@Tyoung) ID#153110:
In a time of credit creation, favor equities. In a time of credit destriction, favor bonds. In a time of currency destruction, favor capital and other tangibles.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:10
AZAU (Mozel, et at.) ID#247273:
Thank you for your analogy.
Astounding to learn the Bill Gates is probably not worth much.
And all those bondholders -- they are worthless!
Money market accounts -- also worthless!
As a goldbug and gold investor, I find this reassuring.
But my virtual capital is like the virtual reality of the computer in
am sitting in front of. Economics is indeed a dismal science.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:09
mozel (@Leland When an economist wakes up from the illusions necessary to perform ) ID#153110:
as a barker for the credit carnival, he ceases to exist. Poof.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:07
Myrmidon (Mr. Mick, grains growing is the new paradigm!) ID#339212:
Copyright © 1998 Myrmidon/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

The world has been growing grains since day one without hybrids.

Although hybrids are necessary for yield enhancement, many fields can
yield a reasonable crop without the use of hybrids. When it comes to
survival, many of us will plant some corn, or whatever, if we didn't have
the monetary resources to buy it.

The now starving nations ( SE Asia ) had concentrated on industrial
production overlooking agricultural development, as income from consumer
products and work in the factories was much greater than farming.

Now that the citizens are faced with reality, they even plant their own
rice, as some time ago a posted URL here at Kitco showed an individual
planting rice to support his family.



Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:07
TYoung (mozel... the question is when capital that is debt based is destoyed...) ID#317193:
til then you got to use what the system allows. I think we are close but my C ball is no better than most. All you can do is hedge all bets and play the game at hand. Beat them at their own game.



Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:06
Copyright © 1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The lunar-eclipse has come and gone early this morning.
Ironically, that's the area of my research that's getting
the most attention these days. Dan Ascini ( Elliott Wave
analyst ) , Robert Prechter ( The Elliott Wave Theorist ) ,
Peter Eliades ( Stock Market Cycles ) , and Jim Davidson
( Strategic Investment ) -- all have noted about the Sept.
6th lunar-eclipse, the 6-week topping-pattern, etc. in their
most recent newsletters. All of this has been positive

Conversely, my book, Total Collapse has gotten a negative
reaction from CNBC anchor, Mark Haines, on friday morning,
Sept. 4th. While Total Collapse was written 1 1/2 years
ago, and described in detail the coming global deflation
and financial crash, Haines called the book mush -- just
like Joe Kernen's brain. I take it that Haines doesn't
think it's possible to have a global financial melt-down.

2 weeks from now, Haines may view things differently. The
6-week topping pattern is now complete. The lunar-eclipse
has passed. The topping-pattern in 1998 has been far
weaker than similar patterns in 1929 and 1987, suggesting
that the coming 1998 crash will be far worse than either
of those crashes.

Right now, it still looks like DJIA 3000 by the end of this
month is a reasonable projection. With the 30% circuit
breaker set at -2600 before the DJIA closes for the day,
it won't take to long to get to 3000.

Next week, I believe the DJIA could fall 1000 points. The
week after ( week ending Sept. 18 ) the DJIA could fall
2500 to 3500 points.

The DJIA has now started the Panic-Phase of the crash.
Huge daily declines will become the norm. Panic, hysteria,
and blood-in-the-streets will become widespread.


Steve Puetz

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:01
Leland (There Are So Many Economists (Like This One) Who Are Saying, Just Print More Money) ID#31876:
I wish that they'd wake up. Until nations return to some kind
of gold standard, there will be no solutions....

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:01
CoolJing (Goldilocks/Donald: thanks) ID#343259:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:58
mozel (@Destruction of Capital) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Let's suppose that water was banned and government by decree made air pass for water. Then, people would talk about freezing water and boiling water and saving water. But, since every operation was being carried out on air, nothing observed would make sense. This is similar to what has actually happened.

Gold and silver coin are capital. But, they have been banned by decree and now credit is what people call capital. Credit on books and credit printed on paper can be created and destroyed. Capital has to be found and mined and refined and minted. Except for a nuclear event, capital cannot be destroyed. That is why it has the quality of lastingness that defines capital.

All sorcery uses words of art.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:49
Squirrel (I prefer Gold Maple Leafs because they are .9999 fine) ID#280214:
Same can be said for Mounties and most other Gold coins EXCEPT the Eagles which are only 22K {but they would wear better in use}.

How about the following standard to compare Gold's price to?

Currently one grain of Gold = one 30-06 cartridge.
30-06 180 Gr, Sierra Pro-Hunter SP RN, Box of 20 = $12.95
Premium ammo could cost 2 grains per cartridge.

After Y2K both ammo and Gold should go up in value together.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:48
mozel (@grant) ID#153110:
The campaign by cold blooded homicidal sociopaths in government offices to convince public opinion that all modern violence originates from suicidal idiots is more successful today than at any other time in history.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:48
TYoung (Gollum...) ID#317193:
Yes, I know...but your response will be appreciated. Just replace dollars with rubles. Yes? Hedge all bets!


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:47
Goldilocks (@CoolJing re RYURX) ID#430221:
Yes there is a $25,000. minimum to start with, but RYdex does have other funds including a money market fund, and one that does the opposite of bonds, that can be included in the $25,000. I think also there may be ways to get in through other brokerage firms - ie not buy directly from Rydex - and that may get you in cheaper. Ironically I started out with the requisite $25,000. bought directly from Rydex, but by the time it went down and I transferred it into my Schwab acct and then sold a few shares, it is now way way under that sum. I live in hope though - it did do splendidly last week.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:47
Donald (CoolJing) ID#26793:
Rydex Ursa has a $25,000 minimum if you buy direct from the fund. It is no-load. Many brokers and discount brokers let you buy it at minimum, starting at $500, but they charge a commission for the trade.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:44
Mr. Mick (Myromidon - re: Lawns and vegetable gardens........................) ID#345321:
people need seed that self-propogates. Most of the seed sold today is hybrid, and does not generate a new viable seed that can be planted next year. Think about it..................

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:43
Fred (To: Gollum) ID#341234:
Your post on money in the stock market was excellent. I e-mailed it to a few friends who just do not understand.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:41
Myrmidon (TO: grant re - 15:40 and grains) ID#339212:
The sharp drop in grain prices may be attributed to the fact that many of the starving countries have now started their own grain growing programs to avoid foreign exchange bleeding. If the bad times continue, many lawns in the US will also be converted into vegetable gardens!


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:41
TYoung ( cut off...short term T bills....) ID#317193:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:40
AZAU (Interesting distinction ... virtual vs. real capital@Gollum) ID#247273:
I like your premise;
But where do you draw the line between virtual ( on paper ) vs. real ( definition? ) . Is REAL capital only that which is hard assets or cash or . I am interested because it goes to heart of currency, money supply, multipliers, etc. Can an investor only consider his capital real if he cashes out or exchanges for non-paper? thanks

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:39
CoolJing (Goldilocks) ID#343259:
thanks for responding. I read that the fund has a minimum of $25,000 entry, is this so?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:36
Lurker 777 (Cowgirl The BEST Gold Coin is: ) ID#320226:
Copyright © 1998 Lurker 777/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The Austrian Philharmoiker one oz. 999.9% pure Gold coin. They have the highest monetary face value of any Gold bullion coin ( 2000 Shilling or $162.00 U.S. ) without paying a premium for it. I think they are the most popular coin in the world and as a added bonus, if the price of Gold were to collapse the coins could be redeemed for their face value. Try giving RJ a call at Monex because I think he can beat anyone’s price on Gold coins. ( 800-949-4653 #2262 )
I was concerned about the recent plunge in gold price so I e- mailed the mint and here is our correspondence:

An: Marketing
Betreff: 1 oz Philharmoniker Gold coins

I am interested in purchasing some 1 oz. Austrian Philharmoniker gold
coins. Would you please answer a few questions I have?
If gold fell in price, would I be able to redeem the coins for the face
value of 2000 shillings? Who guarantees the face value of 2000
shillings. Is the Philharmoniker a legal tender ( money ) coin? Thank you!
I look forward to your response. Lurker 777

Dear Lurker 777,

The Vienna Philharmonic coin is a coin of Austria and as such is legal
tender in Austria. Its face value is guaranteed by the Central Bank of
In the unlikely event that gold fell below the equivalent of 2000
schillings per ounce, its face value would be greater than its gold bullion value. Under such circumstances gold bullion coin dealers would base their purchase price on the face value rather than the bullion value. In this manner the face value would serve as a floor for the value of the coin.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:33
Squirrel (Cowgirl - dragging me back to our regular topic - GOLD) ID#280214:
For investment & convenience holding large quantities - 1oz coins.
For most barter transactions after Y2K - 1/10 oz coins or smaller.
1oz coins would be do for large purchases such as 200 gallons of propane or other petro fuel. Even a 1/10oz coin could be too much to fill up a pickup but would do for a few bags of groceries. A couple of 10-grain coins would be better for filling up a Subaru or buying a box of 30-06 at one grain of Gold per cartridge.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:33
TYoung ( what are my gold coins...and my cash...don't tell me about my short term treasury ) ID#317193:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:30
Goldilocks (CoolJing re Rydex Ursa Fund) ID#430221:
Copyright © 1998 Goldilocks/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
This fund ( RYURX ) has been recommended by the Weiss Safe Money Report for a year or so, as well as a few other newsletters/analists also. It does exactly the opposite of the DOW and does it very well. This means that I lost my shirt until the past few days, being in it for the past year - ie way prematurely - but it is looking very wonderful indeed now and went up substnatially last week. Just on my observations, I'd say it seems more gradual and conservative in its movements than BEARX which seem to react more rapidly but also a bit more unexpectedly. My solution is to have some of each - I think they're both good.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:28
rich (Gold Maple leaf) ID#411320:
Just bought 10 Maples friday, looks like where in for some stormy
times ahead. My game plan is by gold .999 1oz every $5.00 down from
the present price...then everthing going be alright.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:27
CoolJing (oops) ID#343259:
that should say 'marine' company; they were fighting at Chosan resevoir and got caught by overwhelming numbers of NKorean and Red Chinese regulars and had to fight back to their lines...

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:26
crazytimes (@ sharefin) ID#342376:
You're 11:10, great post

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:25
CoolJing (good read) ID#343259:
Copyright © 1998 CoolJing/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
all of this rifle talk let me toss in a great book I just read by Bill? Owen: 'Colder than Hell' about a maire corp rifle company fighting in Korea in 1951; won't be able to put it down.
More good reading, this one about the market collapse:

I can't believe I am sitting here on a beautiful high Sierra afternoon, but the net has so much info about the events that are soon to shape our lives in such a profound way it is impossible to resist. Most frustrating is the hordes of people that are going to be totally, err I mean TOTALLY blindsided by whats coming; then again they are at the lake having a carefree day!!

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:23
grant (Scott Ritter may have just single handedly averted a war.) ID#432221:

He is clearly articulting our ( US ) weakness in tolerating resistance to WMD inspections. Can't blame Saddam if we don't live up to our end of the bargain.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:20
Squirrel (John Disney - you are quite correct) ID#280214:
Forecasting Gold prices with dried eggs is not possible - at least not in the same manner as a yolk in the dog dish, since dried eggs come pre-scrambled. Come to think of it, the same can be said of POG predictions and Klintler's behavior.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:15
Squirrel (22's n such - Oris, Roebear, Cowgirl, Old Soldier, Isure) ID#280214:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thanks for info on 22Mag.esp for warning from Roebear on larger bullet diameter than 22LR. I checked out Winchester & Remington pages and looked through old American Rifleman issues but got far more info from you guys! A semi-auto is made by Winchester and others.
I agree with Cowgirl about retreat {or at least retreat until better a better opportunity}. The besieged may miss, they may hit “only” a non-vital area, or they might just hit the whites of the assailants eyes - do the varmints want to take the risk?
The 22LR seems more versatile - from quiet 22 shorts that won’t alert the neighborhood to 22LR hollow points for more punch. I have heard of folks in Pennsylvania taking deer with 22LR. We should not discount small calibers - Even 25 Ravens have killed people - a bully in local bar got a few in the chest several years back and didn’t survive. I took out a cat with one off my city porch without stirring up the neighbors - but it was not a clean kill - even with a good chest shot. No hollow points available in 25 semi-auto - thus 22LR HP or 22Mag JHP would be better for stray dogs - some of which weigh 100lbs {people get ‘em for personal protection - which is another preparation we should consider}.
Since the greatest threat comes from 100+ lb critters then the 40-grain 22Mag JHP may be the best balance of quiet and effectiveness.

P.S. 30 caliber #1 Buckshot is 40 grains at velocity similar to 30-grain 22 short - but 24 of ‘em in 3” 12 ga. and a helluva lot more noise!

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:09
Gollum (@MoReGoLd) ID#43349:
I wonder what dear Abby will be saying by November.

Never mind, I think I already know.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:08
CoolJing (thanks) ID#343259:
Copyright © 1998 CoolJing/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Tolerant1, Charles Keeling and Cowgirl, appreciate your info.
Cowgirl, on puts and calls I can say I am just not cut out for 'em,
I had PWeber puts on the Nikkei in 89 and made out great, then some tiny forays over the years, usually lost. Last ones were in Oct97 where I was way up but did not sell anywhere near where I should have. Plain answer was greed, got hosed by the PPT but still should have sold on day 2 of the 500 pt drop, realising that the PPT was getting set to intervene.
I have a traders speed and sometimes instinct but options are bad karma for me. Many times they don't react as fast or as far as I'd expect and that tweaks my brain pan!

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 16:06
Gollum (@AZAU ) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Capital doesn't get destroyed in market down turns. It is virtual capital that goes away. And it wasn't really there to begin with.

During a boom people buy stocks or tulip bulbs or whatever. They taka the money they have and trade it for some equity paper ( or a bulb ) . The money is now in the hands of the guy they buy it from.

In their mind, they think they still have that money. As though it were money in the bank. If the prices go up, they think they even have more money. Perhaps they use it as collateral to borrow more money ( which, as it turns out, might even be their original money ) .

Meanwhile the guy they bought from either puts the money in the bank ( to get borrowed ) or buys some other stock himself ( sending prices up ) or buys something else with it.

The guy HE buys it from might do the same thing.

Because of our fractional reserve banking system the same money might be loaned out several times over. Because of leverage and derivaitves ( which also create virtual wealth ) people may think they have many times the amount of original wealth.

This all works as long as prices are going up, but if a significant number of people go to get their money back as cash the whole thing collapses. This leaves everyone wondering where it all vanished too.

It's kind of like a stage magicians trick. The coin is gone long before he opens his hand and shows you that it has vanished.

Everyone gave away their wealth when they invested. They hope to get it all back plus more when the cash out. First one out wins.

The original amount of dollars still a few lucky many people owing money they didn't owe to begin with.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 15:48
Charles Keeling (@ CoolJing RE: Rydex Ursa) ID#344225:
Robert Proechter, the Elliot Wave guy, says that this is the vehicle
to be in during the BEAR that we now have. But I like
BEARX also.

RP says this is going to be one vicious BEAR.

What did one coconut palm say to the other as the Hurricane BEAR
approached? Grab hold of your nuts, this aint no average BJ.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 15:47
Cowgirl (CoolJing while you're at it check out BEARX) ID#34191:
It is the Prudent Bear fund, I just got into Friday. My commodities brokerage account will be open soon and I was planning to buy some calls on gold and some puts on the DOW or S & P. Tell me again why you won't do that?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 15:40
grant (Maybe the IMF oughtta buy all the surplus grain in the US and give it to Russia and other starvers.) ID#432221:


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 15:40
tolerant1 (Just spoke to Mike Sheller...he is happily cornering leaves in his yard...raking to ) ID#373284:
be done soon...and bagging soon thereafter...he sends his regards to one and all...actually...right now he is serving James Whitmore a cup of Iced Tea...who knew...

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 15:33
John Disney (dried eggs are fine ..) ID#24135:
squirrel ..
But lemme see ya try forecasting the
gold price with them .. too unstable..

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 15:24
AZAU (destruction of capital) ID#247273:
Copyright © 1998 AZAU/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
As I have often asked, what becomes of the capital destroyed in market downturns? Ask the Asians, Russians, et al. Some have said that it just moves to other investments and markets. I dont believe so, because
at least a portion is swept away on the tide. Barrons interview and article with Fred Hickey and William Fleckenstein reinforces this observation.
Says Fleckenstein: Personally, just from a macro standpoint, I don't see any reason to want to own stocks, long, between now and the year 2000. Think about it. We have destroyed all this capital. It is clear we are going to have a slowdown in the'll be better off sitting on your hands. Or maybe in gold stocks, though you'll laugh at me. Some of these stocks have been so bludgeoned that you can effectively buy gold at a steep discount via the stocks. But in general why bother? Take 5% and come back in 15 months.
You are not going to miss much.

I agree with most of what he said, but do believe the gold stocks are a good opportunity to catch the fear wave as it propagates through the market. IMHO.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 15:24
grant (Dammit sorry for the double. SCOTT RITTER Adsessing some govornment sumpinornother) ID#432221:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 15:22
grant (Mozel, any suicidal idiot could bring down an airplane) ID#432221:

if he wanted to. I think they oughtta have non-uniformed security on all commercial airliners and one of those emergency air supply devices for every passenger. Those little O2 masks are innefective in poison gas situations. It's entirely too easy for the afore mentioned idiot to generate
an extremely large quantity of poison gas in a quick hurry.
I'm flyin' to Europe next week, and I'm none too comfy about it. gb

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 15:22
Fred (Y2K Commentary) ID#341234:
Here is some interesting Y2K commentary by Joseph Farah. You will need Real Player to listen.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 15:20
tolerant1 (CoolJing, Namaste' and a gulp and a puff to ya from the Island that is Long...the fund) ID#373284:
you mentioned and BEARX are your two best bets...owned and operated by decent...honest folks...uh huh...

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 15:17
grant (Mozel, any suicidal idiot could bring down an airplane) ID#432221:

if he wanted to. I think they oughtta have non-uniformed security on all commercial airliners and one of those emergency air supply devices for every passenger. Those little O2 masks are innefective in poison gas situations. It's entirely too easy for the afore mentioned idiot to generate
an extremely large quantity of poison gas in a quick hurry.
I'm flyin' to Europe next week, and I'm none too comfy about it. gb

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 15:15
tolerant1 (cherokee, Namaste' and a gargantuan hoist on the flagon of tequila and a puff to ya...) ID#373284:
harummmppphhhhh!!! that my boy is why ya gots style...ha..chacha...cha!

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 15:15
CoolJing (rydex ursa fund) ID#343259:
I know its paper but does anyone have any input on this fund? I am not trying to clinton my way out of doing my own due diligence. Any idea for a bit of diversification, have plenty of au stocks and a handfull of ounces, would like to capitalize on the downside without buying puts.
Tried thatin the 500pt down day in October 97, got in way before but was not fleat of foot as a pro would have been.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 15:11
Cowgirl (Eagles or Maple leafs, one's vs. 1/10's?) ID#34191:
Right now I have some of each. I'm thinking about buying more coins when my cashed out mutual fund money gets here. What do you like best? My broker charges 5% over spot for the one oz coins if I order enough. 6% over for small orders. Can't remember what premium I paid to own the 1/10 oz Eagles. The Eagles and Maple Leaf's were the same price. Which is better to own? If the DOW rally's this week maybe I can buy the dip! If not I'll probably buy anyway.


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 15:10
MM (Only) ID#350282:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 15:06
MoReGoLd (@PLEASE, Shut-up Already.........) ID#348129:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Goldman's Co Hen sees stocks rising

WASHINGTON, Sept 6 ( Reuters ) - Goldman Sachs & Co. stock strategist Abby Joseph Cohen, a longtime bull, on Sunday reiterated that she expects stock prices to rise.

``We think from these levels the stock market direction is up over the next few months,'' she said on the CBS television program ``Face the Nation.''

``The only way that the current level of the stock market makes sense is if we indeed are going into a mild recession in the United States and we don't see that this year or next,'' she said.

Despite tumbling stock prices, Cohen has previously held to her earlier year-end price targets that would be put the Dow Jones industrial average at 9,300.

The Dow closed on Friday at 7,640, 18.4 percent below the all-time high of 9,368 set July 17. The benchmark index fell 411 points for the week after losing 482 points the previous week.

Cohen said that although market interest rates have already been falling, any decision by the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates would be positive. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on Friday hinted that the Fed might cut interest rates.

``I think if the Fed moved further ( to lower official rates ) ... it would be viewed in a favorable way,'' Cohen said.

She said investors have been too preoccupied by Russia's economic woes, since Russia accounts for less than 1 percent of U.S. trade.

Selling of stocks by institutions that had invested in Russia using borrowed funds has added to recent pressure on equities, Cohen said.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 15:00
grant (C-Span is showin' some pretty fierce sword rattling.) ID#432221:


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 14:59
MoReGoLd (@cherokee ) ID#348129:
$50. Oil means $900. Gold !

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 14:58
Cowgirl (squirrel, where do ya get those eggs?) ID#34191:
A person ought to partner up with a neighbor or two on the eggs. Take turns opening a #10 and split it, with both of you storing it. Also, will it freeze? I'm hoping to keep the freezers going with generators if necessary. We used to run 'em twice a day in the mountains. It worked OK for meat, but not very well for the bread. Gonna do bisquits, hotcakes, and spaghetti.....forget the bread.

Got gold, grub, and guns?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 14:53
grant (squirrel, will you trade a Maple leaf + mintingcosts for an ounce's worth of your little coins) ID#432221:

or perhaps a Maple leaf for a little less than an ounce of the Wee Ones?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 14:45
Squirrel (Dried Eggs - Powdered Gold) ID#280214:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I just made a small batch of scrambled eggs from Walton Feed's dried egg mix. They were pretty good! One needs TWO tablespoons though to make the equivalent of one egg ( contrary to the label ) . Also, contrary to the label saying to store the cans at 40 degrees or lower, I had them at room temperature for 6 months. Once opened ( or just before ) I'd keep them cold. I ate 'em about two hours ago - we'll see by midnight.
#2.5 cans are expensive per egg - about 2.5 times store bought.
#10 cans are much cheaper - only about 1.6 times store bought.
But using 108 eggs without refrigeration might take too long,
unless you were feeding a bunch of folks {an army squad} each morning.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 14:44
cherokee (@....going-to-$50bbl-in-a-heartbeat......) ID#343446:

THE REASON for the west's success....

earl....boys....there's earl in them thar sand dunes......sic 'em.....


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 14:42
cherokee (!!!) ID#343446:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee All rights reserved

that which has----through subsidies----driven the western economies.......
the purveyors have decided to extract that which was taken at the
end of periods of chaos and flux......

oil....and the control there-of using proxies.......shah of iran, saud of arabia........and many others.....they have come to the end of the line.
the change will be one of purification with fire and ice.....extremes
create extreme conditions.....our manipulation of others has come full
circle....the controllers the controlled.....the door wide open for the
cells to have formed and prepared for their signal from the east.........
jihad in the great satan's 'is the way' used by the us
for generations to subvert and institute changes from the will of the
many, to the few. this would be considered an act of war were it to
be committed by ANY country here in the us.....yet we forment revolution
and assassinations throughout the world to control the energy sources
of the world. wwI & wwII fought for the truth is abominable.......
freedom? hell no......CONTROL.

think about it.......our future is not about is about
WHO will determine for the errant selves......peopleo...they do not know...except what they are told.......

who will YOU turn to.....billy and al yes, the gov't has plans for its'
dis-illusioned masses.....the camps are being built here in the us NOW...
THEY KNOW what s coming....DO YOU?


cherokee!; ) .....driver-of-the-smoke-signal-mobile......ted..light.the.hubbly..

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 14:40
JimX67 (to: Silverbaron) ID#240370:
Thanks for URL but it doesn't help me converting Gold quotation
to USD per ounce...What costs 0.475 HKD ? Thanks again...

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 14:29
TYoung ( in rubles....:) :)) ID#317193:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 14:17
SDRer () ID#286249:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 14:16
MoReGoLd (@YYYEEESSS --- F*** the IMF --- F*** Camdessus --- Re-Inflate --- Other countries will follow) ID#348129:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Russia inks money presses

Deputy prime minister says country will print rubles to wipe out debt

September 4, 1998: 3:24 p.m. ET

MOSCOW ( Reuters ) - Russia will print money to wipe out its domestic debts so it can start reforms with a clean slate, First Deputy Prime Minister Boris Fyodorov, who drew up the acting government's economic plan, said late Friday.
In an interview with Russian public television, Fyodorov spelled out in fuller detail the economic plan unveiled by acting Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin in an earlier address to parliament, which called for economic dictatorship starting in January, and controlled monetary emission before then.
Fyodorov said Russia would print money to pay off all its debts before tying the ruble strictly to the country's foreign reserves.
He conceded that the plan would cause a short-term burst of inflation, but said it is necessary to begin serious economic reforms unburdened by the debts the government racked up in eight years of half-hearted reforms.
We have to settle accounts with the past. Today we have an enormous quantity of debts, the budget is not balanced. Everybody wants ( monetary ) emission. Listen to what they are saying in the ( parliament ) , he said.
The plan we offer is very simple. With the aid of certain operations, about which it is still too early to comment, we will pay just about all the debts that can be paid, he said.
Then we will balance the budget, the ruble will be strictly tied to the country's hard currency reserves, tax reform will be carried out, tax collection beefed up, and a row of other measures.
Fyodorov, who held the post of tax chief in the outgoing government of reformist former Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko, was renamed first deputy prime minister with control over the economy Wednesday by President Boris Yeltsin.
Why is it necessary to settle accounts with the past? Because otherwise everybody will tell us, look, you owe us this and that. Now it's -- okay, fine. You'll get it. You want everything, fine. Take everything today. But be aware that prices will rise.
After that, either we can continue to print money, in which case prices will still continue to rise, or we can stop and finally begin to carry out reforms, Fyodorov said.
Prices have already been rocketing with the fall of the ruble. Inflation soared to 15 percent in August against 0.2 percent in July, the state statistics committee said Friday.
But some prices have risen at an even more alarming rate -- crossing the 50 percent monthly threshold into hyperinflation -- as retailers tried to keep up with the dizzying descent of the ruble, which has lost nearly two-thirds in value over three weeks.
Fyodorov headed a group that drew up the new economic plan that Chernomyrdin, who is seeking confirmation from parliament, presented to the Federation Council upper house Friday.
Fyodorov and Chernomyrdin have met former Argentine economics minister Domingo Cavallo this week, giving the impression that they hope to institute a currency board, which would directly link the amount of rubles in circulation to hard currency reserves. Cavallo oversaw such a plan in Argentina, which broke that country's hyperinflation in the early 1990s.
Chernomyrdin and Fyodorov haven't specifically said their plan will lead to a currency board.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 14:00
mozel (@Swissair @Shadowfax @Russian Economy 40%) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Some of you may remember an accident at Boston many years ago in which a PanAm freighter did not survive an emergency landing. As I recall, the source of the smoke turned out to be a spilled corrosive liquid. In any event, the crew donned their oxygen masks...but it was too late. They were dead before the touchdown.

Other than by bomb, has there ever been proved a case of sabotage in an airplane crash ?

Whereas in Russia where Central Planning and Control has been disrupted, Law-Enforcement can report that only 40% of the economy is controlled by criminals, in the USA that figure is still very close to 100%.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 14:00
Silverbaron (JimX67 @ gold in HK dollars) ID#288295:
You can use this charting system for gold in HK dollars:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 14:00
Squirrel (Will - re 10-grain coins) ID#280214:
Progress is being made
I hope to be selling 'em in the next few months.
e-mail me at

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 13:30
Charleston Gold Bug (to:JimX67) ID#344389:
I am unable to convert reliably as well.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 13:20
George (Goldfevr) ID#433172:
I completely agree with your last post. A rare but pleasant event for a contrary person like myself. You have certainly kissed the pretty girl at one time or another in your dreams...Rhetoric by name.

Anyone watching the tube..Roots of evil..crime and punishment.. both woth the watching.

I'm really worried by y2k, Sharfin and others convinced me. Like many problem situations we could pull out of it cleanisd of our lawyers and laws, prisons and debt system, fabricated paranonia. Maybe a rude awakening for a lot of Budwisser football fans tho. Me too.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 13:04
JimX67 (@Charleston Gold Bug) ID#240370:
As I just asked to Goldteck:
how much Gold do you get with HKD 0.475 ? One HKD being
0.1293 USD I am not able to convert your quote to USD/oz.
Thanks for help

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 13:00
Silverbaron (Tantalus @ Jeil's stuff) ID#290456:
Copyright © 1998 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Why sure, just turn the charts upside down and read from right to left ( or use a mirror ) .

I'm sure it goes against your goldbug's nature to short ASA or HM, but how 'bout the S&P500?

Check out charts on these SPX LEAP put options when you get some time ( will do charts for options )

LSYXN SPX Dec 98 LEAP put strike 70 ( S&P = 700 )
LSYXO - strike 75 ( 750 )
LSYXP - strike 80 ( 800 )
LSYXQ - strike 85 ( 850 )

If Jeil's chart on S&P 500 is close to correct - all will be in the money ( strike 70 just barely ) by end of the year.

This is not intended as investment advice. However, I do own a spread of these options.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:58
ERLE (EB has been eating squirrel brains.) ID#190411:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:57
Charleston Gold Bug (To Goldteck) ID#344389:
Thanks for Hong Kong info :- )

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:56
Donald (Swissair crash not an act of terrorism) ID#26793:
Copyright © 1998 Donald/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mystic Doctor Dead In Air Crash - ( PEGGY'S COVE, Nova Scotia ) -- Swissair says a doctor
from Mystic was among the 229 people killed aboard Flight One-Eleven that crashed off Nova
Scotia. Family members say 35-year-old Tara Nelson was flying to Europe to help her sister give
birth and to meet her fiance. Investigators say it does NOT appear the crash was an act of terrorism.
Other victims from the crash are reported to be the president of a Bridgeport tool company and his
wife... a former Watertown councilman and his wife... and a retired New York Times executive and
his wife.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:55
ERLE (Isure's quiet can include CB caps.) ID#190411:
Nice for city hunting, when I was a kid.

grant, not all CZ product is good. Their small motorcycles stunk.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:52
EB (wow) ID#187109:
I check into kitco for a little fun and I see it is true that:

The more things change, the more things stay the same.

Guns, WJC, Conspiracies.......ohmy!

The Swiss-Air flight was a conspiracy? Sheesh. How could I be sooooo gullible to think that it was just an accident of sort. It couldn't be so because Swiss-Air is soooo safe and one of their planes would NEVER crash. ( unless shot down by a CIA supplied stinger missile ) . I should have known that this was all tied to GOLD GOLD GOLD.

Talk about spinning stories............

Paranoia will destroy ya.............. ( the Kinks? ) ...

I prefer living in ignorant life and Blood Pressure are normal because of it..........well, mostly normal anyway....I still read kitco ;- ) look over my shoulder


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:50
Donald (The Brazilian interest rate hike on Friday will not be enough to stop dollar outflow) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:46
TYoung ( to go be dad for a while...) ID#177105:
sorry for some of these dumb questions but got to ask someone.: )


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:44
Isure (22 cal.) ID#368244:
Copyright © 1998 Isure/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I have tried to steer clear of the gun debate, but now let me add my two cents. Being from Louisiana, I own a firearm in most calibers and learned to shoot just about the time I was learning to walk.

On the subject of 22 caliber, do not neglect the 22 short--- this little round will put food on the table and will do so with virtually no sound. This is the only round that I have used over the years for taking rabbits, squirrels and virtually any type of bird. Browning makes a take down auto 22 rifle chambered exclusively for this round. It comes presighted from the factory at 50 yards and is so light and compact that you should be able to hit what you can see at this distance and do so in rapid fire.

Although it is not legal to do so, on many occasions as a boy I took deer with this round, deadly accurate to 50 yards and whisper quiet . One in the ear from this little fellow will cause a severe headache.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:42
Donald (@Tantalus) ID#26793:
Your comments on Jeil's charts. Scroll to the very bottom of his page. He explains why they appear that way.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:41
JimX67 (@Goldteck) ID#240370:
How much Gold do you get with HKD 0.475 ? One HKD being
0.1293 USD I am not able to convert your quote to USD/oz.
Thanks for help

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:26
grant (Tom, oris did not steer you wrong) ID#433422:

I've never heard of a CZ product that did'nt do exactly what it should. I've got a 52, got it for a song, it's a tank that shoots the screamin' hot 7.62 x 25.Goes bam every time, no questions asked.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:22
TYoung (oris...I doubt you could offend me...) ID#317193:
BTW...thoughts on large capacity mags for the 9mm rifle? Say 30.


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:20
tolerant1 (Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...) ID#373284:
The Island that is Long sends a most glee-filled,palms up welcome to matter what a breakfast may represent to you and yours, I shall do my best to represent that here in my home for you...arrive at my home and I will strive to know you and your history...


and as I learn my feet will never touch the ground...our laughter shall be shared and tears will seep from your soul unto mine...from within our fears will create a garden that all the children of the world may play in...anything less is not our best...

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:20
grant (Roger Kubarych on Bloomburg just said he expects a 4 yr bear) ID#433422:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:19
TYoung (grant...75B...per Bro oris recommendation...) ID#317193:
I had been away from such things for a long time...good to have someone to help point me in the right direction.


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:15
robnoel (Shadowfax....Thank you.. rather than repeat myself heres another link I'am on) ID#396249:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:15
oris (TYoung) ID#238422:
PMSP, brother. Let me know when you get CZ, I'll
celebrate with you. Sorry if I offended you with
some sarcastic answer to you ammo question, but I
want you to be safe and careful, you must practice
a lot, as Old Soldier said, do not consider your
CZ as an investment, shoot it...shoot it, be a pro
and surprise everybody at the range...

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:14
grant (Tom) ID#433422:
52 or 75 ?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:10
grant (Agree and concur with Old Soldier's comments (always have) on practice.) ID#433422:
Copyright © 1998 grant/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

but would add that varied and constant practice is key, ie big targets fast, small targets fast, moving targets, moving shooter, running, laying, dropping, from cover, drawing, loading, reloading, shot count,, etc,,,, all safely. Now is your last GOLDEN opportunity to sharpen your survival/defense skills before what may be the time you really them.
My hopes are that we see an economic collapse deep enough to spur a political revolution, kill fiat money, destroy NWO plans, and drive home the need for sound economic policy in govornment and individual.
My fears are that it won't stop there.Best of luck to all Kitcoits, keep your head down and your powder dry cause here it comes.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:10
TYoung (SDRer...value it...YES Brother oris....) ID#317193:
Physical for sure. Mining shares...almost back to even with my hedge in shares. Keep asking myself how much more of either to buy and when...think I'll wait to see gold above $300. PMSP as Brother oris keeps reminding.

oris...skills are slowly coming are right about these guys next to me at the range...what a hoot. CZ...comes this week.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 12:02
Goldteck (Charleston Gold Bug Hong Kong Saturday Gold Prices) ID#431200:

Time Quote Hong Kong Gold 20:03 0.4750 Loco London Gold 06:21 286.60/10 Loco London Silver 06:24 5.0200

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:59
Caper (SwissAir) ID#300202:
Eyewitness has come forward. States 90 secs prior to crashing into water-
a blue flame was clearly visible emanating from left wing area.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:53
BillinOregon (Kitco meting August 15, 1998 - Long Island New York) ID#262242:
In attendance were Tolerant1, Mike Sheller, Crystall Ball, Reify and BillinOregon. Many things were discussed, many problems were solved and a good time was had by all.

It was a great pleasure meeting all of you. What a great group of ladies and gentlemen

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:52
Old Soldier (.22 magnum effectiveness) ID#185274:
Copyright © 1998 Old Soldier/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Squirrel, 01:03 Agree with previous comments by Oris and Roebear. I have considerable hunting experience with .22 mag. In hollow point ammo, it makes virtually explosive wounds. Melon shaped wound channel 4x5 inches or greater. Thus it is extremely good for killing small animals that are pests but not too good for something you plan to eat. With full metal jacket ( FMJ ) ammo, it is an excellent turkey caliber. FMJ does not expand and tear up your turkey. Unfortunately FMJ will not reliably bring down tougher animals like coyote and fox.

Best use of .22mag? Get a Ruger single action revolver with two interchangeable cylinders, one .22 mag and one .22 long rifle. Practice with the .22LR cylinder for 5,000 rounds of cheap practice. Use the .22mag cylinder and hollow point ammo for serious social work. Trust me, a man who can hit what he is shooting at with a .22 mag. Is vastly more effective than someone who misses with all 14 rounds of a high capacity center fire pistol.

Learning to shoot high power rifle and pistol effectively in combat situations takes thousands of rounds and years of time. If you do not have that kind of dedication, stick to the smaller more easily handled stuff.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:52
oris (Old Soldier) ID#238422:
Copyright © 1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Got your message, you mean really tiny. Guess, we are
talking 10-12 yards max., but to hit a fly even at this
distance is quite a challenge. I must say you are absolutely
correct in your approach. I am always amazed watching this
kind of training when big guys in the uniforms shoot
at MAN-sized targets at 7-15 yards, holding the gun with two
hands, in nice shooting gloves, terribly concentrated and
serious, and mostly hitting this awfully big target in rapid
fire mode...I think it looks great but....I perfectly
understand the beauty of being able to hit a fly w/o being
really concentrated and serious - this makes you real pro
with a handgun...My respect to you.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:48
Shadowfax (Mozel: Some ramblings from a retired Commercial Airline Pilot) ID#290281:
Copyright © 1998 Shadowfax/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Whenever there is smoke in the cockpit of any commercial jet, the first thing the pilots do is dawn their smoke masks.Oxygen is supplied through the mask from an oxygen cylinder which is also on the flight deck. I used to practice these procedures while in the simulator doing instrument approaches. The 6 minutes of silence would be a short in the radio system somewhere which would not allow transmission of the radio signal or pilots could have been unconscious already and the airplane being inherently stable and disconnected from the autopilot could conceivably fly for 6 minutes before violently impacting the water. The pilots also could have been very busy trying to find where the smoke was coming from and also doing a smoke removal procedure. While having the oxygen mask on, keying of the microphone is usually done by using the mike button on the control column or in some cases could be on the control stick. I heard on the news that the aircraft had reached 10,000 ft and was 10 miles out over the ocean.
Halifax airport is very close to the ocean. Oxygen is not required below 10,000 ft but if there is smoke, oxygen is definitely required. A visual check is also made to make sure that there is oxygen flow once the smoke mask has been placed on the face. The question is.. were the bottles of oxygen tampered with? They are separate and one for each flight deck crew member. When the Eastern Airlines L1011 crashed in Florida everglades, all 3 crewmembers were very busy trying to get the landing gear down and locked that no one was flying the airplane and it impacted the ground in a somewhat flat attitude, still killing everyone onboard.
The L1011, has a flight crew of 3, but I am unsure of the number of crew members on MD11 but probably two. Two would certainly be busier than three, especially if one of the pilots had to leave his seat in order to explore where the smoke might be coming from.
I just this minute returned home from a road trip and noticed that we presently have a full moon which would certainly make seeing the surface of the water easier. Also I do not know what the cloud conditions were. What were the weather conditions? Maybe someone could supply me with that as I have not seen TV or read a newspaper in days.
I also heard on the radio in my car that they had to dump fuel in order to land at Halifax because the runway was too short for a heavy aircraft. Hell, why didn't they do an overweight landing?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:45
TYoung (SDRer...someday we will have an idea...I guess:)) ID#317193:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:41
patti (Denver Airport) ID#224301:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:41
2BR02B? (the president was merely proving you can get sex from aides) ID#266105:

Old Gold-- on the point of cashing in options and capital
gains on equities...should the market downtrend continue
it will be interesting to see the impact on revenues.
Not only disappearance of gains but capital losses to
be counted against other income.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:40
Charleston Gold Bug (Hong Kong Saturday Gold Prices ) ID#344389:
Does anyone have a sources for Hong
Kong gold prices? It trades there on
I am viewing the strong price gains in the hicap gold stocks
which as of Fridays Comex close
remained unconfirmed by the metal

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:26
Old Soldier (Marksmanship) ID#185274:
Oris, Very important. Go back and read my initial response on marksmanship. I said tiny targets; shotgun shells, flies, dots, etc. Beer cans are good as other larger things but they do not provide precise enough feedback on exact location of each hit. Also excellent is tiny dot on white paper. It is very important to see results of each shot. Target analysis after a series of shots is worthwhile but best is immediate feedback about the location of each hit.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:24
OLD GOLD (CEOs) ID#242325:
Have seen several article in the press about the poor CEOs who are suffering now that their stock options are worth a whole lot less. Hopefully many of these SOBs who have made huge fortunes at the expense of their employees will give back a lot more of their ill gotten gains before this bloodletting is finished.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:23
SDRer (TYoung-yr 07:19) ID#290172:

June 23, 1997: XEU:AU was 297.622; XEU:USD was 0.8807; USD:XEU was 1.1355 and Gold in USD was $358.750

September 5, 1998: XEU:AU was 252.400; XEU:USD was 0.8807; USD:XEU was 1.1355 and Gold in USD was $286.60

To answer your query, then gold should be around $310….? ( ref: Yen 'ripples' )

If you'll tell me what gold is priced in,
I'll attempt to price it! {:- ) )

Until then, we shall both continue to VALUE it, yes?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:22
robnoel (From FR...Kemp calls for gold standard on FOX....again) ID#411112:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:15
Tantalus (The Baron of Silver - Jeil's charts scare the hell out of me.) ID#370236:
They are contrary to my contrarian view, but so astoundingly accurate.
Have you seen anything Jeil does with an up side between now and year
end? beanie babies er anything? - Regards

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:11
EJ (Flight 111) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A few weeks back I was drinking a beer in a bar at the asurdly enormous Denver Intl airport, waiting for my next flight. I had the pleasure of the company of a man who's occupation is to fly around the world analyzing airplane crashes. He had just come back from Singapore via Japan and had noted that the planes there fly empty due to the Asian depression. We talked mostly about the economic conditions in the countries he visited and didn't talk too much about airplane crashes, since an airport bar is not the best place to conduct such a conversation. We exchanged biz cards and said goodbye.

A few days back I called his business and left a msg on his voice mail, asking about the Flt 111 crash, if he was covering it, how he's doing, and if there's anything he can tell me. Last night he returned my call, said he could not tell me much except that it appeared that the plane had the wiring repair completed and either the standard fix doesn't really fix the problem or it creates a new problem, in either case it's likely the MD11's will be grounded for new repairs. He said the tragedy seemed to stem from the pilot misjudging how quickly the electrical fire and resulting smoke was spreading and how little time he had to land.

Is it time yet for regulations to force airplane mfrs to require automatic fire suppression equipment? As a frequent flyer, I say it is and I'll gladly pay the few more cents of extra cost per ticket to pay for it.


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:11
sharefin (The coming economic crash ) ID#284255:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:10
sharefin (Anyone Buying gold?) ID#284255:

Don't worry. Be happy. The dollar is sound. You will have no problems financially. The stock market will go up forever. The dollar is safe. Your 401k is secure. Don't worry about gold- it is a barbaric relic. Invest for the long haul. Mutual funds are like savings accounts. Your bank is stable, there will be NO RUNS on banks. There is plenty of currency to go around. Y2K is a hoax. Your new platinum card is on the way. You are qualified to borrow 125% of the value of your home. There are no currency crises. There is no Asian Contagion. Monday was just a correction. We don't use your tax money to manipulate Wall Street, and neither does any other government manipulate their bourse. Y2K is a hoax.This is a buying opportunity. Central bankers don't threaten sales of gold they don't have, to keep the price down. Gold IS NOT money. There is no truth to the story that 8000 tonnes of gold have been forward sold. Silver IS NOT money. There is no truth to the story that COMEX supplies of silver are at their lowest levels in two decades. Paper is money. Electrons are money. Mutual funds are not stocks. Y2K is a hoax. The stock market WILL NOT crash. We didn't use taxpayer money to prop up the yen. Inflation is under control. There is no threat of deflation or stagflation. What you are seeing is merely irrational exuberance. The stock market WILL NOT crash. Y2k is a hoax. We will not impose wage and price controls. There will be no inflation. There will be no economic collapse. The peso is not about to disintegrate again. The Canadian dollar is sound. You will have no financial problems. Don't listen to the morons who tell you to buy gold, or sell stocks and buy silver like that idiot Warren Buffett did. Oil will be cheap forever- there will be NO oil supply crisis again within two years. Your food supply is assured, just go to the grocery store every two or three days as always. Y2K is a hoax. There will be no turmoil in Russia- those nice people were standing in line because the Russian banks were offering free Beanie Babies to new customers. Gold is only a commodity. Silver is only a commodity. Electrons are money. Paper is money. Inflation is good. Don't worry about watching the news- there's a football game on the other channel. Bud-WISE-errr. Bud-WISE-errr.


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 11:01
Donald (Russian Deputy P.M. favors allowing stores to use dollars and DM; avoid rubles.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 10:59
goldfevr (To ease or not to ease - Dr. Kellner @ cbs.marketwatch 9/4/98) ID#434108:
Copyright © 1998 goldfevr/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
My reply to Dr. Kellner:

Dear Dr. Kellner,

I always enjoy your editorials at cbs.marketwatch.

But this time, I feel you are uninformed &/or unclear, as to the
severity of the
global economic crisis.

It is not realistic to suggest that Greenspan, even if he does lower
interest rates, could 'salvage the situation', or 'save the day' : --

'Greenspan ... must take arms against this sea of troubles, and by
opposing, end them.

The heart of the world crisis, the root of the problem, is a MONETARY

The amount, availability & cost of credit, ( and currency ) are only one
part of the picture, the puzzle, the problem, the crisis.

There is an expression - you cannot push on a string.
Japan is a good example of a national economy that is demonstrating the
truth of this monetary principle. Record low ( -practically non-existent )
interest rates, but still no economic recovery/growth or expansion.

It is the principle of the velocity of money, that is so often missed,
and misunderstood, when it comes to economics, monetary policies, and

The Fed probably will lower interest rates, soon;
but it will be a day late, and a dollar short. ( so-to-speak )

It will only be a fleeting,
feeble, band-aid approach to a hemorrhaging, global monetary crisis...
that is reflecting a world-wide collapse of confidence -- the crushing
of governments' failed fiscal and monetary policies.

The root of the problem is simply ( metaphorically ) -
cancerous monetary blood .

In other words, artificially created currencies, and credit, created out
of thin air, by the billions, every week....
sooner or later these 'chickens have got to come home to roost' .

We are witnessing the politically manipulated and corrupted monetary
and fractional-reserve banking institutions, that have evolved over
several generations, and that are hallmarked by the Bretton-Woods
monetary agreements and alliances, as they are now beginning to crumble,
and collapse.

The global economy will eventually recover, and thrive...
in a new and prosperous economic world.

But not until internationally trusted & accepted form of money &
is agreed upon and adopted.

This universal standard of money and credit, will be defined in weights
of gold,
and backed thereby.

Once the world evloves to this realization, and to the acceptance of the
discipline and integrity and equalizing justice of an international
there will be a balance between savings & investment;
world trade will thrive on the stability of a 'common denominator';
free enterprise and prosperity will have the best chance of reaching the
greatest numbers of the earth's citizens; and
economic cycles will no longer be characterized by extreme booms &

And finally,
governments will be restrained from corrupting themselves, their banking
and their economies...
because they will no longer be able to create money & credit out of thin
to pay for political promisies, favors, subsidies and deficits,
that they are not willing to tax for.

The new millenium looks forboding indeed,
in the current global economic & monetary crisis.
Economic & monetary illiteracy abound every where.
Political and financial/banking corruption, subterfuge, manipulation,
and wishful thinking...
as the blind continue to 'lead' the blind...
seems to be the only 'growth industry' and 'bull-market'... on the

It may take the international community of collective humanity and
world leaders, several painful years yet - even decades -
to learn the lessons of the sound principles of honest money and credit.

Once the basic foundational building blocks are set in place,
the global economy will restore itself, and flourish.

Sincerely yours,
David B. Macrory

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 10:55
Cowgirl (.22 Caliber..... is a good choice just from the expense standpoint.) ID#34191:
You can stock your arsenal will thousands of rounds inexpensively. That doesn't exclude the good ol' .30-06 and the .243 for distance and power. Most people would retreat from an assault, even if it's only .22 caliber.

P.S. Hi, DD. Welcome aboard the KOOK site.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 10:44
oris (Junior, I mean gonna, not donna.) ID#238422:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 10:43
oris (Donald's post at 8:07., also Junior) ID#238422:
Copyright © 1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Russian law inforcement says RUSSIAN ECONOMY controlled
by the criminals, and expects more troubles ahead. This
is a classy case of Russian style reasoning why
nationalization of major part of Russian economy is a must
to do thing for the sake of mother Russia...It is coming.

Junior, I hope you donna be O.K. with your mines in
Siberia, but you better consider such possibility, particularly
if you do not have very friendly relations with high-level
local bosses. On the other hand, as I said before, if you
are friendly, you may get Armand Hammer status, which
is not too bad for making buck...Wish you luck.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 10:41
sharefin (Analysis on Projected Profiles of Gold,) ID#284255:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 10:31
oris (Roebear, thanks for your info on 22 mag.) ID#238422:
I promise not to shoot 22 LR in 22 mag.chambered gun.
I believe Squirrel asked about it and he should also
promise not to do it. We want him not to have any
troubles, even such small one as stuck bullet in the barrel.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 10:23
Selby (Did Bill finace Mass Murder too) ID#286230:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 10:04
chas (Tantalus re soil) ID#147201:
There is an outfit in SanAntonio which deals in all sorts of organic gardening and supplies. It' BIG. Malcolm Beck is the man, the phone is 210 651 6115. He will test and report and if its good he will use it

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 10:02
Suspicious (Dollar Slide) ID#287312:
If you were a Japanese holding US Bonds you lost almost 2 years earnings from your bonds over the last week and a half as the dollar fell against the Yen. What would you do?
( 1 ) Buy more
( 2 ) Sell
( 3 ) Hold

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 10:01
chas (mozel re 6 minutes) ID#147201:
I'm afraid you have it. If this can of worms gets opened, who knows?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 09:33
crazytimes (@ Jeil projections) ID#342376:
Amazing accuracy so far, but someone better send a link to the Baron in Germany about Homestake.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 09:27
Lan Man (@Jeil Projections for Homestake) ID#320108:
Based upon his projections, someone will be paying me a couple of bucks to buy this stock? Hotdog!

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 09:20
Mr. Mick (Donald, All - It's lovely to wake up to all of this positive news!!!!!!) ID#345321:
:- ) ) Just kidding............Carry on.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 09:12
Boardreader (Go Jack, Go!!!!!!) ID#20767:
Kemp on FOX with Tony Snow - NOW!!

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 09:10
robnoel (Mozel/Donald....IMO you and me think the same on most things its that 6 minutes that says it all,) ID#413273:
according to the transcripts released yesterday and from someone who heard them said the final responce from Swissair sounded like the pilot was speaking with a a mask on....if correct how could he pass out from smoke from an electrical thinks that smoke was no fire......Donald I have a great webmaster who constantly adds links to my web page care to check it out tell me what you think....and possible links I need to addif you have a web I'd love to add it

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 08:49
Donald (S&P refuses comment on rumors of change in Australian sovereign rating.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 08:45
Silverbaron (New gold share bull market, or the edge of the cliff?) ID#288295:
Take another look at projections from our friend Jeil before you buy....

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 08:41
Donald (Boy, age 10, files for bankruptcy) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 08:39
Caper (Clinton) ID#300202:
The Star-sister of The National Enquirer published THE CIGAR STORY. No
longer necessary to carry stories bout Aliens amongst us or Two Headed
Baby born in pumpkin. I just glance at these stories in the supermarket.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 08:35
Donald (Reduced auto demand triggers largest bankruptcy since WW II; Toa Steel, Japan) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 08:31
Donald (Unnamed official says rumors of Sakura Bank (Japan) demise are absolutely false) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 08:23
Donald (World Bank cuts off credit to Burma after loan default.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 08:22
TYoung (Donald...and it was even currency related...) ID#317193:
Is that paper I smell burning...everwhere. Perhaps a currency that does not burn might be a good hedge very soon. Not an investment...wealth preservation.


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 08:17
Donald (Police tighten security at Jakarta Airport to prevent Indonesian bankers from fleeing.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 08:13
Donald (Global jitters taking a toll on Brazil; no quick fix seen.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 08:07
Donald (40% of Russian economy controlled by criminals; expected to increase) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 08:04
Donald (Bolivian coca farmers march on La Paz over crop eradication.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 07:57
Donald (U.S. farm income down 12% so far this year) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 07:52
Donald (S&P downgrades 9 Philippine banks) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 07:45
Donald (Hedge fund up 256% this past week.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 07:42
Donald (Going to ruin my reputation by posting good news for TYoung.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 07:38
Donald (Venezuela miffed that their credit rating is the same as Bulgaria) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 07:33
Donald (Pakistan situation dire; reserves nearly gone; $42 billion debt due ) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 07:33
TYoung (Donald...any good news out there...just kidding...) ID#317193:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 07:30
TYoung (SDRer...or the JY is going back to around 145) ID#317193:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 07:28
Donald (Singapore situation worsens; Malaysian holding at risk; bank losses mounting; etc.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 07:23
Donald (Moody's ready to downgrade HK and China currency, state owned banks.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 07:19
TYoung (SDRer@10:52 on 9/5...mmmmmmm) ID#317193:
then gold should be around $310....?


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 07:17
Donald (Ten Latin American presidents call on G-7 and the IMF to do something to restore stability) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 06:17
mozel (@Bank Wars, another front in thhe War on Gold) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Charles Saphos, in his statement before the House Committee on banking and financial services phrased this choice as follows: the financial institution, before it does business in the United States, has a choice it makes. It may choose to do business in the United States and by making that choice, elect to make all of its records available to a Court in the United States, or it can choose to respect the confidentiality of its nation's statutes and not do business within the United States. See Testimony of Charles S. Saphos before the US House of Representatives Committee on Banking and Financial Services.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 05:43
mozel (fwiw @caper) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
SION, Switzerland ( CP ) -- Switzerland's ambassador to Canada died when he was hit by a train in this southern Swiss town early today, local police said.
Daniel Dayer, 58, was waiting on the platform at Sion station as the Brig-to-Geneva train approached, Valais state police said in a statement.
He tripped, was hit by the train's locomotive and killed instantly. Local authorities have opened an investigation into the accident, the reasons for which were unclear.
Word of Dayer's death darkened an already sombre mood at the Swiss embassy in Ottawa.
It's too much at this time, said Bertrand Louis, an official at the embassy. We are a small team.
Louis said 10 people work at the embassy.
Dayer was on his way back to Ottawa at the end of a three-week visit home, which included attending an ambassadors conference, Louis said.
The embassy official said Dayer was travelling with his family, but didn't know if they were at the scene of the accident. Dayer is married and has a daughter and son, both in their 20s.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 05:02
Roebear ( oris 22mag) ID#412172:
Copyright © 1998 Roebear/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
.22 Magnum is .001-.002 larger than regular .22 Long Rifle and so if .22 LR is fired in .22 Mag then there is no resistance for smokeless powder and the power of .22 LR cartridge fired in the larger chamber/barrel is greatly reduced. Main danger is that the projectile will get stuck in barrel causing gun to blow with next round fired. Different guns would produce varied results depending on actual bore diameter etc. DISCLAIMER, do not try this at home! I have test fired same and found .22LR performance reduced 1/2 to 2/3, no noise and still can be deadly though may be injurious to operator as noted above. .22Mag yields 350+ in foot pounds and new ammo available may give up to 2500+ feet per second with lighter bullets. Damage with hollowpoints is extensive, will blow small animal like squirrel ( no offense Squirrel! ) in half. Many different types of ammo available for different performance levels but nothing will make it a 223. Very accurate round to 150 yards. Low muzzle blast compared to centerfire rounds and no recoil to speak of, would be good close in round if made in reliable semi auto of which I have no experience. Gotta run, go GOLD!

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 04:42
mozel (@Earl) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
That is exactly what would happen--what does happen, replied Dr. Tesla. It is an engine that does all that engineers have ever dreamed of an engine doing, and more. Down at the Waterside power station of the New York Edison Company, through their courtesy, I have had a number of such engines in operation. In one of them the disks are only nine inches in diameter and the whole working part is two inches thick. With steam as the propulsive fluid it develops 110-horse power, and could do twice as much.

You have got what Professor Langley was trying to evolve for his flying machine--an engine that will give a horse power for a pound of weight, I suggested.

Ten Horse Power to the Pound

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 03:46
mozel (@Could anything be devised better suited to secure the covert operations) ID#153110:
of intelligence agencies and the maneuvers of their masters from exposure than the destruction in public opinion of any currency for the word conspriracy.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 03:34
mozel (@jims) ID#153110:
Has the freight manifest been made public ? Why are you so certain you would be able to identify the cargo from the wording on the manifest ? It's not essential for there to have been gold on the flight if the purpose of a sabotage was to unofficially embargo gold movement out of the NY Fed. It would be sufficient merely to demonstrate the capability by sabotaging a route which would be used for gold transport. Murdering a lot of people in the course of the demonstration merely underlines the threat.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 03:29
mozel (@jims) ID#153110:
Has the freight manifest been made public ? Why are you so certain you would be able to identify the cargo from the language on the manifest ? It's not essential for there to have been gold on the flight if the purpose of a sabotage was to unofficially embargo gold movement out of the NY Fed. It would be sufficient merely to demonstrate the capability by sabotaging a route which would be used for gold transport. Murdering a lot of people in the course of the demonstration merely underlines the threat.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 03:14
jims (JTF - gold looking better and CLinton) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I agree with you the days of CLinton look numbered. Watching him on TV he looks like he knows it too. Has a hang down look that says its over. When the book is written it will be said that Clinton know he was on borrowed time. But what Hilary know and when she knew it that will be interest. Oh, I don't know that it will be - she knew seven months ago about Lewinski and about all the other dirt as it happened.

The Starr report should be out in a couple of weeks. It contains much more than sexgate; I bet Clinton resigns by the 15th of September and doesn't even put up much of a fight, though the REpublicans ought to release the report's information and let the world know just what a scum bag Clinton was or is and how obviously culible left wing and average Americans were to a shinning face and broad smile. Coming soon: Presidient Al Gore - oh boy!!

As to gold investments - personally I've come on with just about everything I can in precious metal mining. I'd be about 150% if some funds good be directed to gold ( perhaps I'm better off that they can't be - forced diversification ) . I'm going to be buying more. I'd rather hope this bull gets off to a smooth and gradual start so as to get more at low prices. Soon it'll be time to get physical - if it isn't already.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 02:59
jims (To: Hatt, Mozel, the sleeping Gollum) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sorry I passed off there for a couple of hours; was rather enjoying our conversation.

If there wqas gold on that plane that went down it would be on the manifest and it will be known by the FAA. Mozel, you have beuatiful prose but I think perhaps a little too conspiratory.

Hatt, thanks again for your take on the ABX situation. Again, I have to think a little like the skeptic over on SI which wondered how such vital information as the direction of ABX's hedge fund would fall into the hands of a Kitcoite.

Gollum your wife must be very understanding of your time on Kitco, mine wnats to ration me.

OH, JOHN DISNEY!!! - how about HGMCY 4 1/2 and good old SGOLY - little break out above $3 US.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 02:34
mozel (@John_D) ID#153110:
It would have been contrary to all we know of human nature for people to have been swayed by talk, however well disposed they might have been to its content, when money was walking so tall, so much of it was being directed their way for free, and things for so many seemed ever so much better. We shall see how much pledging of allegiance goes on when people learn the true meaning and the actual burden of having feudal masters.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 02:22
John Disney (erly in de mornin) ID#24135:

sorry .. Mozel
make that

Is that there never were enough of you..

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 02:18
John Disney (The big problem ..) ID#24135:
Mozel my brother ..
Is that never were enough of you..
.. I could see that in 1981 ..
.. so I left..

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 02:04
JTF (G'Nite all!) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Looks like I'm the only one going strong -- long day ahead for me. Moving trailer to tiny lot about 25 miles from town. Does offer self-contained shelter and heat/refridgeration for about a month with minimal electical needs.

Am quietly accumulating a little cash too -- no harm done in being prepared. Spouse is now beginning to think I am not nuts when I show her news of the average Russian growing crops to keep body and soul together. In the story I read to her, someone stole the 16 chickens, so no eggs -- just crops and goatmilk.

Come to think of it -- there was a day when horsethieves and chickenthieves were dealt with fairly harshly in the good ol' USA.

I think we all need to remember that if hard times do come, the ones that willsurvive will not be the single families in the middle of nowhere, unless that nowhere is practically at the end of the world. For most of us, secirity will come from banding together in small towns all accross the country. So -- stock up on books on how to, get a small supplly of seeds -- but most importantly develop a skill that makes you a worthwhile member of whatever group you might join.

I hope I am wrong, and this prosperous country blithely passes without incident into year 2000, but I am not optimistic. Too must history indicates otherwise. And -- if we do not have a financial collapse by y2k, it will just be later.

One thing is very clear from watching our world-wide problems. And -- that is that the 'powers that be' will not give up until they have thrown everything into the fire ( pyre? ) . Look at Japan and Russia as examples -- how will they extract themselves from the clutches of the Gangsters, except by cleansing with fire.

Russia only knows totalitarianism. And -- for the second time they are getting a bad taste in their mouths regarding free enterprise and democracy. So -- revolution is very likely. And -- a return to the cold war -- either with lots of little nuclear Russias, or one big one.

What we have going for us is the information revolution. That advantage may go away during y2k.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 01:58
mozel (@These Days) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Because gold mines are the unique circumstance in world of investments, their owners will suffer a unique problem of definingwhat they really own!

Where there is no land held by allodial title, is there is any allodial gold ? Where are the freemen ? Where are the men who will own the gold they find and mine ? Where is Natty Bumpo ? Where are th breed of men capable of A DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE. We are conquered and occupied. Where is the land of our birthright to bequeath to our posterity ?

We are landless people in our own land of birth, disposessed by a rogue government that was founded to secure our land for us, and soon many will be houseless as well as landless. But, thy tax home shalt thy have always with thee. How low have we been brought ! Lo, the pitiful, pathetic American whose forefathers once looked on a world of peons, peasants, and coolies with compassion is brought down to their level of landless subsistence and impoverishment by taxation. And for our land we have received endless, unpayable debt and the legal right to be perverts governed by perverts. Yes, there is everything in America but shame.

Strange days are in our destiny, my friends. There will be a time during which there is no official POG in any currency. It requires no great feat of thinking to foresee the coincidence of the disruption of the world by Y2K and the disruption from the chageover to another world reserve currency is not accidental. The one will serve as a kind of extra cover for the other. Open thine eyes lest thee be taken unawares to the slaughter.

Runaway. Runaway. Runaway. There is no place to hide. Wherever you conceal thyself in self-deception, you will emerge from there to find the same demands again being made on you to grovel.

You have no place to live free when you have no land unbeholden. They can not only eject you from it for unpaid feudal fee, but for any other default of obligation that they may lay on it or on you. They may regulate what they own in any fashion they please, as may any landlord. There is nothing in your life they cannot rule over when you have not land unbeholden.

They speak openly now of government by martial law, which is no law but rule by the whim of men. But, they have been practicing it for quite a time. Our House is open to the rain and the wind and the boot.

The illusion of our security, the illusion of freedom even in such minute proportion as is remaining from Independence, will disappear with the suddenness of waking from a dream.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 01:55
oris (Squirrel) ID#238422:
Copyright © 1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
22 Magnum is approx. 2 times more powerful ( muzzle energy )
than 22 LR, with speed up to 1,900 ft/sec. It has jacketed
bullet, and bullet diameter is slightly different than 22 LR.
It is not so quite as 22 LR. You can not shoot 22 LR in
22 Magnum firearm, unless you like to take your chances...
I have no practical experience with this caliber, but it
seems to be O.K. for small game but pricey for it's
effectiveness. For 5-6 dollars per box of fifty you can get
the same amount of much serious ammo, like 9x18 ( Makarov ) or
even 7.62x39 ( in large quantities ) . Hopefully, some Kitco
brother knows this stuff and will share details with other
fun-loving brothers....

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 01:47
JTF (Gold investments looking better) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: I did not realize last week how much trouble WJC is in. I think it is a good bet that he will now have to step down -- and the gold rally may be reflecting this. Local editorials are now running consistently nearly 100% anti-Clinton. Only a few weeks ago it was cyclic -- oscillating on a weekly basis from almost 100% pro to almost 100% anti. Not any more.

I think it will be worthwhile to have a 5-10% holding in gold equities right now, despite the possibility of a market meltdown. And that is -- if WJC really is toast, gold will go up even if the markets go down.

I would still not bet the farm on gold equities, as paper can burn rather easily. Too many matches out there -- still little news on the credit/debt crisis bombshell in South America.

I hope to add to my currently small precious metals position early next week. Perhaps a small fixed monthly amount until it is clear that the equity markets and precious metals are decoupled.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 01:37
JTF (E-mail still down -- new addresses on Prodigy) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: Still haven't switched e-mail to prodigy internet. Can't beat this 56k speed at $14.95/month.

mozel: I liked your comment about whether the Government controls markets. We say that we like regulation of markets to prevent one party from unfairly taking advantage of another -- and we do need that.

But -- your point is very well taken. Once the government realizes that is has control of a market -- via regulation -- it is tempting to take advantage of it too. So -- we avoid one evil -- private market manipulators -- and create another one. Government market manipulators.

I guess the most important point is that if you give the power of something to an entity -- be that entity an individual, a corporation, or a government -- eventually that entity will figure out how to manipulate that something to its advantage.

'Absolute power corrupts absolutely -- or something to that effect'.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 01:30
JTF (56 K baud modem, P75, and Windows 95B) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: Just upgraded my US robotics modem for $60 to 56k. Software upgrade. Had some problems downloading the software, as my 03/00 expiration date caused the autmated system to reject my credit card. Fortunately had another card with an earlier expiration date.

After a couple of hours of surprises -- had to reload software several times -- I am up and running. Amazing! I even got 56k on the new Prodigy 56k internet link. Did finally get a call from ATT ISP server -- guess they got my angry message about being cut off for son logging on when I was on, unbenownst to me.

Just so you know -- 56k is not just talk, it actually works, and this software upgrade to the most advanced 3com has to offer is well worth it!

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 01:03
Squirrel (Old & Retired Soldiers, Dave, Earl, El Dorado, et al) ID#280214:
How does 22Magnum compare to 22LR? Your posts about 22 convinced me to seriously look at this caliber for quietness and effectiveness with wise and experienced use. I admit to ignorance regarding whether one can use 22LR in a 22Magnum rifle. The 22Magnum ammo may be five time more costly than LR unless compared to premium LR ammo.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:55
oris (SlingShot, gold related stuff...) ID#238422:
Come back will be here.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:42
SlingShot (been looking around a bit tonite at gold related stuff) ID#105111:
and I have one thing to say:

oh boy oh boy oh boy oh boy oh boy oh boy

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:41
Gollum (Yawn) ID#43349:
Well now it IS time to retire. Long weekend.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:39
G-Nutz (Ok well heres a couple of weird links.. Java games and such. Be warned...) ID#433143:
Warning.. Following link is rated XXX contains partial nudity of err Bill

Warning.. Following link contains graphic violence

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:37
Tantalus (jims - as other Fidelity funds are a large player at new boss's 401k) ID#317211:
I'll be giving it a try tuesday am. Will let you know if we can fight
city hall on this.
What p*sses me off is that 401k fund managers aren't with this.
Oh well, the squeaky wheel gets the grease, yes?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:34
oris (Old Soldier) ID#238422:
Copyright © 1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thank you. I know what you mean because I also shoot at small
targets, mainly empty plastic bottles from shampoo, beer cans,
clay pigeons and ammo boxes, and as a formal training,
at 6 diameter black circle paper target at 25 yards, each
time it is usually 200-250 rounds of .22 rimfire and 50
rounds of 9mm or 38 Special ( sometimes 357 Mag, but not
very often ) .

In regard to low-level thinking of terrorists - as a rule,
their planning is very poor, right. But, if you take some
bad guy who has 200 mil., you would assume that he may not be
stupid or at least he can buy some brains. We'll learn
in some time the reason of this airplane crash, which
looks to me like pretty violent crash, with 6 minutes of
COMPLETE silence from the board before impact...looks real
strange from the technical point of view considering numerous
systems ( on such big airplane ) backing up each other,
particularly systems of communication. And why it happened
with airplane of so much neutral Switzerland? But, of course,
it's my speculation...

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:28
mozel (@Tantalus) ID#153102:
Everything done by USG has been rigged against gold from the violation of the constitution that No state shall .. make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debt onward.

On rigging in another context, look into ERISA.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:24
Gollum (@jims ) ID#43349:
That was Caper going to bed. I was just wishing him sweet dreams.

I quite agree. The short covering primarily hit gold. The stocks just sort of followed along for the ride. If the short positions being liquidated by the hedge funds were large enough, they would have been wise to buy some stocks first....

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:23
jims (To Tantalus) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Have the same problem with 401ks and their direction not toward natural resource stocks. I think what is required is for individuals in the plan to request modification to the fund list their funds can go into. I plan to do that next week. I sure would like to have money going into Fidelity's Oil Service energy fund and the Fidelity Fund that has some expousure to South African golds.

A top for gold ( or an interm top ) will probably occur when 401k plans start including gold. I think its going to be a long bull market and the valuations will get as czarried away as Yahoo's and Amazon's.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:22
mozel (@jims) ID#153102:
It is conjecture based on the plane's point of origin and on the other facts I put forward.

The transfer of gold would be a secret operation for obvious reasons. The Swiss could not announce there was gold on the plane now for the same reasons. It would compromise future shipments. And invite salvage operators to the scene as well.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:20
The Hatt (My thoughts re: ABX closing out their hedged position!) ID#294232:
Copyright © 1998 The Hatt/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
As goldbugs we pay close attention to trading action and sentiment! Exactly two weeks ago I reported that the trading action in ABX was changing and it was taking the appearance of accumulation! I have been following ABX,PDG and a VSE Junior for the last four months in real time and have not missed one minute of trading during this time! Last weeks trading further convinced me that both ABX and PDG were being accumulated by strong hands and these hands are looking for size. On Friday when most day traders would be flattening their positions you would have thought that these stocks would of pulled back however that was not the case...
Placer finished witin a nickel of its high and ABX also closed near its high! Something is afoot here and now is the time to take notice.. When i recieved my info re the proposal to close out the hedge position things started to add up! As we all know ABX has announced its intention to buyback shares this year! Since then TECK and Cominco have also made public their intentions to do the same! If ABX were to close out their hedge and accept one billion dollar gain would that not put them in the perfect position to take a run at another low cost producer! Things are getting very interesting and the market simply confirms that something is indeed up! Lets hope the info proves to be accurate!

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:16
jims (To Gollum) ID#252391:
I thought you were going to bed

I don't think that all the move in the metal stocks could be attributed to short covering though Gold's move may certainly have been.. As short as these markets are I think they could run along ways on short covering, especially as the longs have to be the hard core bugs.

It won't be long before gold and metal shares are up on the year and the DOW and SP down - when those comparisons start being made more brokers will be listened too that suggest a part of one's portfolio be in gold.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:16
Tantalus (Gollum - I currently have two 401k's going,) ID#317211:
( one job to another,eh ) and have found no provisions in either for focus
on investment strategies towards gold. Sigh

401k's also rigged against our precious?

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:10
Gollum (Momentum) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The initial jump in gold seems to have been prompted by frantic short covering triggered by the market decline and ensuing margin calls as well as weakness in the dollar also triggered by the market decline.

Short covering does not a bukk market make.

New money must flow into the sector. I notice with increasing hope that some funds and analysts are starting to rcommend gold and gold shares. No doubt becuase the couldn't help but notice the large run uo in prices due to the short covering even as other sectors were declining.

I sure wouldn't mind eventually seeing a lot of that 401k money coming into the PM sector. Get enough of it in and the government would have some strong motivation to keep it from declining as the social security system run on into the baby boomer problem.

If gold continues to rise more and more will come to see it as a safe haven from paper chaos.

Let's keep that ball rolling.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:08
jims (To Mozel) ID#252391:
Do you have any information that supports the belief that their was gold on the plane to Switzerland - or is that just conjecture.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:07
Tantalus (Whooops, to continue) ID#317211:
I may have a soil remediation process solution. Anyone here who could
suggest a free enterprise contact?
Do not want to deal with EPA etc.. 'til later on.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:04
Tantalus (the tolerant1 recently mentioned a group opposed to gold /silver mining) ID#317211:
because of environmental consequences. I'm sure there are many such groups.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 00:03
mozel (@Gianni @Swissair) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gianni. You should read this.
When you do, look for the part detailing the portion of trade transactions settled by Swiss Banks and that settled by US Banks.

If you must move gold today, and sometimes you must move it further than across the aisle in a bank vault, you will move it by air. Note the MD-11 is an air freighter, having more freighter capacity than any other wide body jet.

If your ability to move gold when it is necessary to do so is compromised, the reliability of your settlement services are cast in doubt.

You may rest assured there are powerful USG and international banking interests who prefer the IMF/World Bank system to Euro. Traucher says they will stop at nothing to preserve their position as master of world usury. Stopping at nothing means not stopping at murder. Murder by professionals with the best training and materiel that money can buy. Is the transfer of gold from NY contrary to the National Security interests of the USG ? If so, the murder can be sanctioned. It is preposterous to suppose the CIA or its hirees could not penetrate the security at the NY airport to place a pulse emitting device on board that would confuse the advanced avionics on this aircraft ( mimicing a wiring problem on the flight data record ) and install a gas canister to make certain the plane would not be flown by the crew and to mimic an electronics fire on the flight data voice record. A gas to produce unconsciousness followed by cyanide would be good because planes contain a lot of items that produce cyanide gas when burned. NTSB will blame the plane or the crew based on the empirical data at hand.

Knocking off a Saudi Prince certainly does not decrease Saudi insecurity, which has also served USG aims. If that were the main show, however, they would have already captured the terrorist or at least somebody would have taken public credit for the act.

The wipe out of a previously 100% reliable aircraft is suspicious. If the cockpit crew stopped talking for six minutes, that's suspicious. But, susceptible to explanation, as I said. The fact the plane broke into such small pieces suggests to me there was no pilot control when it hit the water. Likewise the fact a 12 foot buoy was sheared. Even if the flight data boxes are found, who will open them ? It's Vince Foster and Flight 800 all over again. The Swiss won't say anything publicly. How can they ? Unless they want to try to convince the world USG is a terrorist organization. But, you can be sure word will be passed in the back channels of yet another outrage of a government that is wild with power.

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