KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 16:21
chas (Panda URL) ID#147201:
Thanx very much for the URL. I have done my dirty work- we watch this together-yes

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 16:20
zeke (The Silver Lining) ID#25257:
Gold Bugs have some good news: A few issues were up on the day--
Good old RANGY, that oft-touted-bowow known to all kitcoites was up; BGO also up a bit, as well as TKOCF. HM unchanged.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 16:12
vronsky (sound familiar?) ID#427357:

Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted

E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the
New York Herald Tribune, October 30- 1929

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 16:12
TYoung (Positive THOUGHTS....anybody got even one...) ID#317193:
Negatives, negatives...come on folks even in a down market there is a bright spot. The world economic system probably will not implode and gold will thus probably rise. However, if such occurs, then perhaps your hard assets will serve you well to protect your wealth, whatever that may be.

If you have your health and if your children have theirs you are rich. Prepare for the worst and enjoy this ride of life. No one is always right or wrong. Show some heart and give some love...it matters.

Tom

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 16:12
Gianni Dioro__A (Hatt, all - Republic Bank of NY) ID#384350:
Does anyone have a link or source for that loss? That's HUGE. rougly 100 times the loss that took out Barings.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 16:08
Allen(USA) (SDRer) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The world's greatest creditor nation goes down the tubes while the world's greatest debtor nation garners the desperate flight of capital throughout the world. A unique paradox. Or is it two drunks holding each other upright as long as possible? The very fabric is shredding before our eyes. Certainly a clever trick will be the birth of a Euro currency in the midst of such crazy times as these. I wonder about the condition of the Continental Commercial Banks. With so much 'abroad' do you think they can make it? If RNBof NY has 110 billion in losses in one quarter, then what elsewhere?

We shall see.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 16:07
JJ__A (Bear Funds) ID#254199:
Can you please tell me the name of the bear mutual funds?

Thanks,
Jerry

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 16:02
SDRer__A (Allen(USA) yr. 14:44) ID#286249:
A perfect 10!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 16:01
vronsky (hear tell fisher was Abby's grandaddy (:-))) ID#427357:

The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most.

Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at
Yale University - November 14, 1929

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 16:01
tsclaw (@all) ID#327123:
Expect more Middle East problems soon. Mondays market opening may have to deal with the problems.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:57
vronsky (stocks are cheap here.....?) ID#427357:

We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices.

Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in
The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:52
SDRer__A (Frustrated--Thank you very much...) ID#286249:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I work scenarios very carefully indeed, but my scratchpad math is hopeless! {:- ) ) Incidently--my 'equation' is somewhat different, by the Disney 1st Law is certainly close enough for testing!
-----------------------------------
Re--Japan
The greatest concern for Japan is the reliability or stability of the unified currency, the euro. If the newly born euro is unstable, exchange rates for the yen and the US dollar will inevitably fluctuate greatly. When EU monetary integration is realised - and if the newly born euro becomes a stable currency - flows of goods and capital between Europe and Japan can be expected to grow further.

On the other hand, the arrival of the euro will have a major impact on the future of the international monetary system. Currently, the position of the US dollar as a key currency is on an eroding trend: the US
currency, whose GDP world share is a mere 25%, accounts for over 50% of the global reserve currencies ( compared with 14% for the DM and 7% for the Japanese yen ) . This is the fundamental cause of the instability of the present monetary system, with the dollar functioning as a key currency. Nor should we overlook the fact that the US is the world's largest debtor nation.
Yoh Kurosawa ( Chairman, The Industrial Bank of Japan Ltd, Tokyo )
http://amue.lf.net/q_a/global24/conf_3.htm


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:50
Mountain Goat (@Toledo) ID#35087:
What you say is true... And I like your idea of the coin, except that the coin should be minted with the word Down on BOTH sides, so you'd know where Gold was headed. ;- )

Seriously, though, there are some here who are buying Gold for a reason.
That reason is still 16 months away for me.

But I do thank you for the refreshing & accurate perspective, and hope you continue to lurk and post.

Regards,

MG ( Go Gold! )

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:50
jtaher (Lurker 777 : puts insurance) ID#249409:
Copyright © 1998 jtaher/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Now how's that for a concept in today's markets
- insurance ( puts ) for your insurance ( physical gold ) -

Totally agree with the idea - but here's another approach
-for those with a stock account but no futures account, how about
puts on stocks ( Barrick 2000 Leaps, Placer Dome 2000 Leaps,etc. )
-haven't done the number crunching to see how many options/oz of gold, but there are some advantages-
-stocks tend to move with greater leverage than gold ( up and down )
-with the general markets in trouble, gold stocks may also
participate in the downturn, even if gold does not to the
same degree ( ie 1987 )

Just a thought-

And now that I have some puts, go gold! ( up or down )

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:50
Allen(USA) (Aragorn) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thanks. I appreciate your encouragement. As a certified Kitco 'weirdo' ( have ceritifcate here on the wall to prove it - with seal and everything ) I can only wallow in my self delusion and smarty pants ways.
Am looking forward to being a 'millionaire' at your most gracious convenience. I will never see it otherwise, eh? ;- )

Its the Bonds.

Its the derivatives.

Makes Godzi'r'a look small and weak.

See the note below on National Republic Bank of New York .. $US110,000,000,000 loss in one quarter ( last quarter mind you ) ?

Gadzukes! The waters swirl ever higher about skwirl's knees. He tries to flee. But finds the canyon walls stretch high to eternity. Looking left and then right he finds no escape. Turning, he finds its to .. late.

The canyons are flooding with flash floods. Many victims will only be found after the clouds have gone by.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:45
Silverbaron (Toledo) ID#289357:
Copyright © 1998 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I try to give information, not advice. But if I or anyone else here does give you advice, remember that it is worth just what you paid for it.

Also remember that you can be right in the long run, but be broke in the short run - and not ever be able to reap the benefits of being right.

There are all types of people here - traders who don't care which way the price goes ( as long as they are on the right side ) , contrarians who are looking for a bargain, fundamentalist gold bugs who will buy gold no matter what, and perhaps many others. Consider the source of any information you receive. The world has gone completely mad, and we are for the most part just trying ( collectively ) to make some sense out of it all.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:38
Allen(USA) (Toledo) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Can appreciate your sense of doubt as to the immediate benefit of many of the ideas expressed here. Hope you can understand that many here have spent a considerable personal effort in thinking about this and done do for years. We all benefit by listeaning, but not necessarily following, others perspective and decisions. You will find that some here have good track records in short to midterm TA trading. Some have a different perspective ( years out ) .

At to flipping the coin, well that's another opinion and your two cents worth. Can always blame the coin, eh? ;- ) We all would like to hear about how your coin does. Maybe, possibly, if your coin works well we could subscribe to the coin's wisdom and become rich together!

I can see there are two basic approaches to this thing. The first if fundamentals ( supply/demand, etc ) and the other is technical analysis ( follow the trend regardless of WHY it is a trend ) . There are short, medium and long term perspectives as well. All these things interact, as well as the emotional state of the holder.

The 'coin' will work in a down market and an up market. It will tell you eventually which way the market is trending. You will lose some in the process. The trick is, of course, to bypass the coin and look at the market itself ( thereby eliminating the 50% success/failure cloud ) .

In my estimation we are in a down metals market driven by world events. So play it on the down side. There's SO much yet to happen that is negative out there. Things are not getting better any time soon.

~~~~~~

So where are you in your investments?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:38
cherokee (@....bow.drawn....flaming.cyber.arrow.from.above.at.the.ready.....) ID#343446:

'weirdos on this forum'....what a broad stroke of the brush.....
the picture words paint can cause the application of war paint.....

best stick to what you do best......lurking quietly....
let the calls be made....time vindicates,or eviscerates gumblios....

cherokee!;..mouth.monitor....mr.chop-asaki.tam.bien...ready.to.loose.it..

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:36
sam (woody) ID#286234:
Everybody knows what FRN is. Almost everybody knows what a silver dime is. Most people know what a silver dollar is. Fewer know what a Maple is. Fewer still know what a ten ounce bar or silver round is. And what will you get in trade for your rare Indian head penny in a barter situation?

Last week I bought all of the common date Morgan dollars my local coin shop had, instead of the silver rounds they just took in and wanted to get rid of. This week I could have got 'em cheaper of course. If they're even cheaper next week I'll definitely get some more.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:33
Gold Fevor (Toledo Post) ID#432137:
Well said post Toledo
Lots of bulls--ters on Kitco Posts.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:32
James (Toledo@Good post. You should post more often. Some of us here appreciate) ID#252150:
opposing views & occasionally a good dash of cold reality.

I flipped a coin today & bought another 1000 St. Jude lottery tickets.
At $.96, now cheaper than 649 tickets.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:32
clone (Toledo - I forgot to mention...) ID#267344:
Welcome to the forum!
-c

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:26
Aragorn III (Allen(USA)...I have not forgotten you--it is in the works.) ID#212323:
Copyright © 1998 Aragorn III/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Your lengthy post below is a fine bit of fresh thinking that many would do well to ponder long and hard on. You touched upon some elements that electrified some filaments in my own awareness...things known but long misplaced in the dim clutter. Thank you for the helping-hand out of the dark!

The history books may well record that unimaginable foolishness was perpetrated in the blind effort to satiate the appetite of the many-tentacled paper monster. As the obligations to honor unwinding derivatives are pursued with more focus than the consciousness upon the means employed in doing so, all notions of the meaning of value will appear to have been temporarily suspended. Step back and don't get caught in the downdraft. What you can put your arms around at the end of the day may be your only building blocks for the future.

got resolve?
got value?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:26
clone (Toledo - you are correct) ID#267344:
Don't ever take the advice from any of the wierdos on this forum. I must add, however, that this forum is designed to discuss the issues surrounding gold. Much of this discussion touches on politics and liberty - but that is what gold is about. This forum is not designed for you or anyone else to get sound investment advice - remember that any advice coming from this forum is free. Tis forum a medium of exchange of ideas. That is all. For sound investment advice, see your local witch doctor in what ever shape he/she appears. -c

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:25
Lurker 777 (How low can we go?) ID#320226:
Copyright © 1998 Lurker 777/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
No rally today! Maybe Monday will give me the opportunity to buy some more Gold Puts. At $240 Gold I will be using my credit cards $100k+ to buy more Phillies. The next rally we have I will buy 4 Dec 250 Puts. Dollar cost averaging with limited downside risk.
I am heavily invested in Gold Coins but cannot lose anymore money no matter how low gold goes. I have one December 99 290 put for every one oz. Gold Phillarmonic that I bought for under $300. each. Hmmmm Phillies selling for $274 + 3.3% = $283.04 AND 290 Puts selling for 18.00 each. $283.04 + 18.00 = $301.04 Can’t lose! . Please be careful out there with your hard earned money. Gold is a political metal and the CB’s have the edge. The real war is just started and we are taking on a lot of casualties. If you own physical and have any powder left, COVER YOUR ASSests! Puts are cheap insurance. IMVHO

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:20
Mountain Goat (@Gollum) ID#35087:
Isn't it about time for the day traders to jump out?
( Got any guess for a close number today? )

MG ( Go Gold! )

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:19
panda (chas -- try this URL for the Treasury) ID#30126:
http://www.ustreas.gov/menu.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:15
Real Money__A (Price of Gold) ID#40881:
Copyright © 1998 Real Money__A All rights reserved
Have been lurking for some time now and find that I have much in common with many Kitcoites. ( Bought mining shares too early, for one ) . And Studio, my bride doesn't know the complete status of my holdings either! Gollum, do you have frequent flier miles?

Anyway, I have read Robert Prechter's At the Crest of the Tidal Wave mentioned earlier, and found it quite interesting. The thing that bothers me the most is his scenario for gold. He has been predicting an ultimate low in gold of under $200 since 1982. Well IMO, adjusted for inflation, we are there. So to me there is no conflict in Prechter's prediction and the current thinking that puts us close to a bottom now or in the near future.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:14
Toledo (Gold weakness) ID#325184:
Copyright © 1998 Toledo/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I have been lurking on this forum for over a year, but didn't think it worthwhile to submit my two cents. But, a person is entitled to change his mind, so here goes:



This gold movement is very interesting. The market goes up, gold goes down. The market goes down, gold goes down even more. Political crisis, war, failed economies throughout the world, haven't helped gold. Yet, most of the goldbugs on this forum have repeatedly proclaimed that these things would be bullish for gold. I have recently seen a lot of comments that the strong dollar in relation to the yen has been keeping gold down. Yet, when the dollar weakens against the yen, gold still goes down. There are lots of hang in there, gold is due for a reversal. The truth of the matter is that there are a bunch of people on this forum that really have no better idea of what is going on then the average Joe does. So for those of you who haven't yet lost your life savings and are thinking of investing, I say flip a coin and base your decision on that. Your chances are probably as good or better than taking advice from some of these gold experts.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:13
Gollum (George__A ) ID#35571:
A dollar is a dollar. How safe is it? It's as safe as everyones faith in the US economy.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:10
Gollum (DOW -107) ID#35571:
Oh oh, less than 45 minutes to go and we've developed an engine fire.

I've got a bad feeling about this.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:09
woody (Charles_S Thanks for the info) ID#24563:
As an investment, would it be better to pay more and get the Maples or Eagles rather than the lower priced Silver Rounds? Which would be better for barter?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:03
George__A (dollar) ID#433172:
Whats a good guess on the near term for the US$ ? How safe is it? At what point does it become unsafe? Lowering of interest rates? Any risk of freefall?

Allen says in one paragraph he's comfortable with it, and in the next it's on it's way to slaughter.? Can you clarify that Allen?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 15:03
Frustrated (SDRer__A) ID#298259:
So far you have presented the most rational explaination for what is happening to the POG. I continue to follow your posts with much interest.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:59
James (RJ@Dow 10,000 Wow!! Hope you're not doing a reverse Peutz. ) ID#252150:
If so you may have to put up with some ribbing ( good natured of

course-not ) . I hope you are right because I covered my only short for an $8. gain & am long. Since I'm long AU stocks, techs, natural gas stocks

& a biotech stock a rising mkt will help me much more than a dropping mkt. I'll be very happy to see 9000 again.

You are right on with your comment about Clinton murdering people halfway around the world for personal gain.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:56
Allen(USA) (Hatt) ID#246224:
Bond and Derivatives loss. See my post below.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:55
CharlieS__A (woody,silver rounds) ID#298380:
Silver rounds are 1 ounce silver pieces about the size of a silver
dollar. They are minted by the silver companys like Engelhard and
Johnson-Mathey for bullion purposes. Engelhard calls theirs the
Prospector

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:48
The Hatt (Take a look everyone and this will help to explain why gold is acting funny!) ID#369369:
Republic national Bank of New York has reported a 110 billion dollar loss relating to loans in Russia. HELLO, this is a Bullion Bank with a seat on the London Gold Exchange..... Does anyone think that perhaps this loss is related to Gold..... Food for thought!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:44
woody () ID#24563:
Has anyone heard of silver round coins? What are they?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:44
Allen(USA) (IMHO) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The rivets are shearing
and the metal is screeching.
The glass is shattering
.
.
and the people have yet to start screaming.

The big news was the World Bank AA bond 86 basis pt ( in one day ) rise on last Friday. The next biggest piece of news was the Long Term Credit Bank of Japan's admission that it will fold and leave $US 375 Billion in defaulted derivatives exposed.

The major action is in currencies, bonds and derivatives. They are melting down. The equities are a sideshow.

This is a SELL ALL market. PM's will go down and down and down. The momentum is down and alot of PM's are dominated by the futures contract market, not the physical market. People are getting margin called left and right, up and down. They have to sell something, they will sell everything ( paper ) . This is the meltdown, folks. It is not starting in the equities, but they will catch on soon enough.

Alot of precious metals TA has not taken this external market chaos into account. This has thrown everyone off. Momentum players will simply sell everything into exhaustion.

The collapse of the bond markets is at hand. This market is very, very, very large in relationship to any other market. Sovereign nations are defaulting on or publicly discussing default on their bonds.

I chastised Martin Armstrong here a few weeks back. I could not follow his logic in declaring a crash in PM's. I am now starting to think that he was not laying his cards on the table because this would have been counter productive. Possibly he has known for a while the what and how and why of his conclusions, but could not admit to publicly describing it. His predictions may very well pan out, but not for the reasons he gives ( which may be his intention ) .

Prepare to be out by 14th Septmber. Panics to begin then. Get out of the way now .. avoid the rush.

Paper is burning. That fire will spread and consume everything in sight that is burnable. This is why the PM's are going down now; because they are dominated by paper markets that purport to be real. At least this is true for silver, platinum and paladium. As for gold, the political metal, .. enough said.

I am very comfortable with gold bullion, silver bullion and cash ( $US ) . Real things need no promises to pay to be what they are. Everything else is a promise to pay ( even the US$, though it is usefull at this time ) . Promises are being burned in the fire and will continue to be burned until they are all burned up.

Don't you know that they herd cattle into pens in order to put them onto rail cars, in order to bring them to slaughter? All the 'pens' ( assets in non-reserve currency commitments ) are being loaded onto the rail car called the US Dollar/Bond. That car will transit to the slaughter house and all those who are aboard will be killed. This is not a conspiracy. It is divine judgement.

You are witnessing history in the making. You are part of it. Cattle, silver and gold in hand. These things will never be destroyed by the thrashing of the world system as it dies a death of a thousand cuts.

~~~~~~~~~

It is possible that a rate cut by Greenie will soften the current fiasco. But I think a rate cut will indeed be seen by the professionals as an admission of descent into an economic depression of great depth. They will not act as the rate cutters think. Unintended consequences will ensue.

We make very poor, little gods indeed. And we deserve our just deserts.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:36
Mountain Goat (@JTF RE: your 14:05) ID#35087:
Copyright © 1998 Mountain Goat/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
As an analyst/programmer, I can answer the latter part of your Santa Fe & Union Pacific merging question.

You are correct in saying that 2 years should be enough time to 'merge' two rail scheduling programs.

But here's the 'rub': When a company builds a working system ( like a scheduling program ) it then builds a few ancillary links from that system to it's other existing systems. Then it procures a few more systems which ride on top of the existing systems. Then it builds a few home-grown applications, databases and other stuff to support it's business. A typical large company like Union Pacific might have several *hundred* computer applications, each with various databases and interfaces.

Now you merge two such companies. Chaos results if you try to disconnect any of these spider-webbed programs from one another... So, how do you merge their computer systems? Often, you don't. You just add ANOTHER layer of complex and confusing software over the top of all the other systems. A layer that combines the outputs of the similar parts of each company's systems, to give one result for the whole company. Thus, you merge two computer systems, and end up with three seperate computer systems - not one, which would normally be the desired result.

As a graphic example, how would you physically 'merge' two office buildings?
You could deconstruct both, move them, and build something new from the pieces. Very expen$ive.
Or, you could build an 'atrium' betreen the two existing buildings, and then simply call it one building. Much less expen$ive.

Which way is best in the long term? Probably option #1.
Which way is best to keep stockholders happy? Probably option #2.

Thus, all of these mergers that we hear about will exacerbate Y2K, not help solve it. Of this I have first-hand knowledge and experience.
So if you're looking for companies that have a hope of making Y2K, look for those companies that HAVE NOT merged within the last 5 years.

My 2 centavos.

Regards,

MG ( Go Gold! )

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:36
SDRer__A (JTF--our man in Switzerland...) ID#290172:
I ( prayerfully ) agree. There was a great deal of violence,overkill if
you will, in the whole ugly thing.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:33
SDRer__A (vronsky, re: not effect business... ) ID#290172:
Right up there with Wriston's
Sovereign nations don't go broke. {:- ) )

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:33
STUDIO.R (@T#1.............there will be blood in my house.) ID#119358:
Not. It's only heinz ketchup! and a couple of bags of BIG onion rings, and a few empty buuuuuudweizzzzzers. Yup, Still got food here, no problemO. yumm yumm. ( gulp )
Of course, if Lini finds out how much I'm down on my little gold HABIT......uh, no more rings, including the one on my second finger.
Uh huh, Silence is golden....Mumm is da' word. Yes....studio.showin'.no.sweat ( 'til she finds out ) ...g'dayO

Also.....studio.receptive.to.blackmail uggggggum

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:32
(Test) ID#20460:
Testing cyberpath to Kitco

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:32
JTF (Do you believe?) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
gollum: Great post! That is the essence of a bull market! Problem is, it is foolish to think that faith in something standing on a steadily weaking foundation can laste forever, like Never Never Land. And loss of faith has a nasty tendency to fail abruptly.
For our markets to go up, we must have faith in two things -- first, in the US dollar, and second in the US markets. Faith is a necessary part of the equities markets, but we do not need to add to the risk by using the modern 'fiat' currency dollar in the foundation, when alternatives exist. Wonder why the Swiss Frank went up nearly 3% yesterday. Faith, too? Or, something more substantial?
SDRer: Liked your post to mozel. I'll bet that all those Swiss Cantons will never approve Swiss gold sales, no matter what the Swiss banking authorites have in mind. Too bad we did not learn out lesson in 1980.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:19
vronsky (BEST PREPARED FOR THE MILLENNIUM MENACE) ID#427357:

Ref: JTF ( Another thought about y2k )

Q: Which countries will be best prepared for y2k?

Ironically, the greatest possible devastation might be wrought right here in the USA. The reason is simple. No other nation on the globe depends more on computers for its heretofore high standard of living. In sharp contrast, a totally undeveloped country like Afghanistan will go relatively unscathed in a worse case scenario of the MILLENNIUM MENACE.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:12
tolerant1 (PUBLIC NOTICE...to the Great people of Russia...we do not have much, but we) ID#373284:
will take the time to care...from the Island that is Long...our hearts and cares are with you...your troubles are our troubles...I cannot speak for the rest, but in our home, a candle shines for all of you...Namaste'

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:10
Strad Master (Moral idiocy!) ID#250297:
OLD GOLD: Thanks for posting Gore Vidal's preposterous anti-American rant. It is sad to think that there are actually people who's ability to distinguish right from wrong is so far out of whack but given that Mr. Vidal is the poster child for the morally challenged, his statement does make for some humorous reading.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:05
JTF (Another thought about y2k) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All:

Q: Which countries will be best prepared for y2k?

A1: The ones that use the most modern computers, and upgrade frequently.

A2: The ones that use computers very little.

However, A1 assumes that all computers are appropriately upgraded, no matter how small, if they perform an essential function. Even a few % failures will bring down a finely oiled mechanism.

I still find it amazing that the merger of Santa Fe and Union Pacific ( Names right, I think ) has actually reduced the efficiency of railroad freight traffic in central USA. It seems that their computer systems are incompatible. I am at a complete loss regarding why in this modern era this has not been fixed nearly 2 years later. Railroad switching and car routing systems would be an easy matter for a modern computer -- if I/O and programming done wisely. Sign of the times, I guess -- and this has nothing to do with y2k.


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:03
JP (Let's talk about gold) ID#253153:
Copyright © 1998 JP/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
As you know, I have been advocating all along the position that the only way to get us out from the coming depression to prosperity is the make the US dollar convertible into gold and create a stable currency which is good as gold ( plus some other structural changes ) . Unfortunately our government is in chaos and no one knows what to do. As I see it, the Sep equities crash will signal to the whole world the new phrase, DEPRESSION. I expect this massive depression to last 10-15 years. So why gold is not rising now as an hedge against bankruptcies ? It will start moving up slowly after the crash towards the end of Sep or early Oct. By the end of Sep, most portfolio's will be down 50% or more. The public will panic and will continue selling equities on any subsequent rallies. Although I do expect a big Dow rally after the crash , it will be within the confines of a bear market and deepening deflation. The Xau is down 95% from it's former high's of 1980. What should we do ? Now, just sit tight and do NOTHING. Around the end of Sep , start increasing your investments in gold and gold mining shares. By Dec 1998, you should be Fully invested in the precious metals plus have sufficient cash on hand .I foresee a tremendous gold bull narket starting within the next 4 -5 weeks. Some of us probably will use the Xau weakness and buy now, but I would wait a few more weeks. I hope it helps.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 14:01
ravenfire (MSNBC breaks bad news for Micro$oft) ID#333126:
http://www.msnbc.com/news/190860.asp

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:59
Goldteck (Rate increase adds $1B to debt) ID#431200:
Copyright © 1998 Goldteck/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Friday 28 August 1998
Rate increase adds $1B to debt
The Ottawa Citizen
The Bank of Canada's one-percentage-point increase in its overnight lending rate could cost the government an additional $1 billion over the next year in increased interest payments on its $583.2-billion debt.
The increase in the bank lending rate to six per cent from five per cent marked the first increase in eight months and came after the dollar lost eight per cent of its value against its U.S. counterpart since late June.
In his fiscal 1999 budget, Finance Minister Paul Martin estimated a sustained 100-basis-point increase in interest rates over one year would boost interest expenditures by $1 billion.
As longer-term debt matures and is refinanced at the higher interest rates, the negative impact on the budgetary balance goes up, reaching $2.4 billion by Year 4, Mr. Martin's budget documents said.
The federal government is paying $43.5 billion in debt interest through March 31, 1999, up from $41.5 billion in the 1998 fiscal year.
Copyright 1998 The Ottawa Citizen

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:58
vronsky (oh really?) ID#427357:

This crash is not going to have much effect on business.

Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois
Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:57
chas (Anybody re US treasury) ID#147201:
Is there a URL for this place? TIA

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:53
Gollum (Coming to the close) ID#35571:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
. Peter flung out his arms. There were no children there, and it
was night time; but he addressed all who might be dreaming of the
Neverland, and who were therefore nearer to him than you think:
boys and girls in their nighties, and naked papooses in their
baskets hung from trees. Do you believe? he cried.
Tink sat up in bed almost briskly to listen to her fate.
She fancied she heard answers in the affirmative, and then
again she wasn't sure. What do you think? she asked Peter.
If you believe, he shouted to them, clap your hands; don'tlet Tink die.
Many clapped. Some didn't. A few beasts hissed.
The clapping stopped suddenly; as if countless mothers had
rushed to their nurseries to see what on earth was happening; but
already Tink was saved. First her voice grew strong, then she
popped out of bed, then she was flashing through the room more
merry and impudent than ever. She never thought of thanking
those who believed, but she would have like to get at the ones who had hissed.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:52
JTF (Brief visit -- hard to get on today) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: Notice the high volume on ABX when it went down yesterday? I think we will have a bottom in gold equities in a few months when the CRY0 bottoms. Don't know why the CRY0 is so widely followed but it is. And RJ has stated he is a gold bullion bull.

I'm not sure about DOW 10k, given WJC's fading fortunes. Certainly not for months. But -- it is possible if AG lowers rates significantly. And, the US markets are clearly doing the best worldwide. I don't envy AG's position, as he has little wiggle room. One benefit of these inflationary 'fiat' currencies is that serious recessions can be eliminated, but that is balanced against a less stable economy. If AG pushes when he should pull, things could head south quickly. Someone on this site stated that the US markets could rally to 10k after we survive y2k. That is possible, because the fear of any kind of y2k disaster can have a very dramatic effect on the markets long before y2k gets here. The markets may be quite bearish heading into year 2000, and may respond favorably when the air clears and the world is still there -- after some difficulties.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:46
OLD GOLD () ID#242325:
Gold's failure to rally on extensive follar weakness today is EXTREMELY BEARISH.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:38
Suspicious (I'm beginning to believe Prichters $200 Gold) ID#287312:
but I'm not happy about it. When the dollar starts falling IMHO.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:36
SDRer__A (Frustrated--Clean hit! {:-))) ID#290172:
We're hitting airpockets and suffering ancillary miseries, but pretty much holding to the filed flight plan...
bbl

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:33
Cage Rattler (Tale of a friend who learned a lesson) ID#33184:
Six months before the 1987 'crash' he qualified as a chartered accountant in his mid twenties. Markets were going up and up and it seemed a good bet. He borrowed quite a sum to buy stocks. Six months later his stocks were not worth much but he had huge debt.

Two years ago he finally finished paying off all his debt!!! Needless to say, he learnt his lesson and has not been troubled by the market this time.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:32
OLD GOLD (Oh What a Lovely War!) ID#242325:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved




OH WHAT A LOVELY THING IS WAR. HOW
DIVERTING. HOW UNITING. HOW AMERICAN.

A CONSTANT STREAM OF 'ENEMIES' IS THE
ONLY JUSTIFICATION FOR A HALF-CENTURY OF
MILITARY PROCUREMENT.

By Gore Vidal
Sunday - The Guardian - August 23, 1998

Forty per cent of the American people in the Malls
Assembled, our agora, decided that the strikes against
Islamic Satans in the Sudan and Afghanistan were intended
to divert attention from the Commander-in-Chiefs
problems with Savonarola Starr. Such figures were enough
to make a patriot weep and turn yet again to Henry Adams
The Degradation of the Democratic Dogma ( 1920 ) , must
reading this August on the better beaches.

How can the one indispensable nation turn so rapidly into
the one, apparently, indisposable global empire and world
policeman? What has gone wrong? Why are they blowing
up our embassies? Who are they? Or as a lady asked me at
a political meeting in Orange County, California, during the
Cold War: I have two questions. First, what can I do as an
average American housewife to fight Communism and,
second, what is Communism?

No president can do much of anything domestically. The
economy takes care of itself, Nixon once observed and,
besides, he added, its pretty dull. That leaves the President
foreign affairs. Trips abroad. Pageantry. Nixon himself had
a vastation equal to that of Henry James in the Galerie
dApollon of the Louvre when he first marched past the
gorgeous royal guard of the king of the Belgians. Reeling at
the glory of it all, he ordered Ruritanian uniforms for the
White House security men, uniforms that to this day dress
many a far flung production of The Merry Widow.

But pageantry to one side, there are the pleasures of
showing that the empire is no poor helpless ( brain-dead )
giant. Stand tall. Light the missiles. Bang! People always
rally round the President when hes telling foreigners whats
what  the Palmerston manoeuvre.

No one can count the number of covert and overt wars that
the United States has fought since 1945. Governments
overthrown in Guatemala and Iran. Then bloody police
action in Korea  no triumph, as it turned out. A dozen
years of containing China by trying to destroy its millennial
enemy, Indochina. The destruction, in the process, of
Cambodia and Laos.

Then war on the cheap. Reagan invades the island of
Grenada, forgetting to tell its Queen, your Queen, in the
process. Reagan also dropped bombs on Gadaffi in Libya.
Bush had his light show in the Gulf. Defied by the great
Satan Noriega, for whose capture we invaded fearsome
Panama, we kidnapped Noriega, put him on trial in a Miami
court that had no jurisdiction over him, then put him in jail
for crimes that make no sense. What is this all about? For
one thing, a constant stream of enemies is the only
justification for a half-century of military procurement; $5.5
trillion thus far. When Communism folded, two new wars
were launched. First, against drugs  an unwinnable but
highly enjoyable and profitable enterprise for the
prosecutors, and even the victims of our paranoia.

Then there was the war against terrorism. What is a
terrorist? Well, anyone who objects, say, to our support for
Israel. To dramatise these enemies we put snarling faces on
them. Enemy of the Month Club. Arafat for a long time.
Gadaffi, whose eyeliner still offends American manhood.
Nasser, who died. Noriega, who got kidnapped. Saddam,
who got away, if not with Kuwait, with his defiance. Now
Osama bin Laden of Saudi in Afghanistan.

The CIAs demonising process is fascinating, swift,
unvarying. Each demon admires Hitler. Keeps a copy of
Mein Kampf beside his bed. Is a poofter  red silk knickers
are found in his closet. He also has mistresses and takes
cocaine. In Noriegas case the captured cocaine paste
turned out to be tortilla flour. Cant win them all, as they say
at Langley, Virginia. The fact that there are more than a
billion Muslims in the world, as opposed to a quarter of a
billion Americans ( by no means united in this enterprise ) ,
gives no one pause. Twin devils: drugs and Islamic terror
fuelled by an insane fundamentalism  who can forget
Olivier as the Mahdi?

It was irresistible for Clinton to push the revenge button
against those responsible for the embassy bombings.
Unfortunately, we dont actually know who they were or, if
do we know, were the missiles accurate? Sandy Berger
looked definitely shifty at the National Security Council
press conference. Madeleine Albright, due to some
configuration of her handsome lips, seems always to be
extruding snakes and toads and scorpions. It appears that a
guess was made. Action was taken. Allies... Forget it,
Boris! We stand alone. And we stand tall.

Also, a matter of some relevance to the recent troubles in
Washington, should something unfortunate explode on
American soil, under the Constitution the President assumes
wartime powers and is beyond the reach of all law and
custom, as Lincoln discovered when he invoked the sombre
constitutional phrase military necessity, which allowed him
to cancel habeas corpus, shut down newspapers and free
the slaves. Oh, what a lovely thing is war. More to the
point, as the eloquent Spiro Agnew once said: The United
States, for all its faults, is still the greatest nation in the
country. More to come.


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:31
SDRer__A (moa--) ID#290172:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Think you will find John Disney's 1st Law of Goldomics very helpful in clarifying this! {:- )

I think the absolute floor is 250.00, even with the roiling of the currency markets, which is making everything more difficult.

Also--

A brilliant colleague, when asked to review the Euro/Dem/USD Box, offered a number of sound, rational, perceptive stumbling blocks, among which was, about the 77 trillion of derivative holders who have their world turned upside-down overnight. More dead banks than you can shake a stick at overnight. It would be too risky, methinks. Even friends of politicians could get hurt.

The Derivative Demon is the Stumbling Block Supreme. In a sense, they make planning anything impossible!

However, there is reason-probable and plausible-to believe that the action to be taken would be something like this:
31 December 1998, the Euro is 'taken-off-line and adjusted as necessary and brought back in 1 January 1999 where it needs to be. Needs must. And they have pulled it out before, for 'adjustments'.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:28
CoolJing (Gene Inger last night:) ID#343171:
Copyright © 1998 CoolJing/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
....
Debt implosions and derivatives concerns were my primary fear for the
worst-case outcome for this year's market, and we have both ( precisely the
subjects that weren't welcomed when they were publicly discussed by yours' truly
some months back ) . Gold continues as a poor holding, as we have also argued
consistently, for the simple reason that Russia ( among others ) is using it, and now
Oil, as sources to obtain desperately needed hard currency.

Even the Dollar is now coming under a bit of pressure, as a sense of economic
slowing and recession becomes more pervasive, on a worldwide basis. No
surprise. The dollar's decline was due, but will be narrow and not macro, unlike
other currencies. We hold by our view that the generational low was back in 1992
and tested in 1995, but a correction here was and is appropriate.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:26
Frustrated (SDRer__A - 8/28/98 case?.........also THANKS much Panda...) ID#338228:
SDRer__A are you saying 1/1.0935=x/278.20? If so, I get $254.41 POG. Am I interpreting this wrong?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:20
Squirrel (impatience makes for double posts) ID#280214:
so do double clicks on the submit button

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:16
robnoel__A (To all looking for data from the begining of time to date from stocks,Exchange Rates to gold,silver ) ID#410198:
http://www.globalfindata.com

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:14
Cage Rattler (Future Shock - An analysis) ID#33184:
http://www.intermoney.com/rp14.htm

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:13
moa__A (Sour bank deals accelarating....derivatives of velocity?) ID#281175:
Copyright © 1998 moa__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Global exposure to Russia
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19980828/bs/outlook_1.html

BankAmerica big losers
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19980828/bs/earns_30.html

CB head resigns
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/financial/story.html?s=v/ap/980828/financial/stories/malaysia_central_bank_1.html

Fuji near junk bond status
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19980828/bs/banking_7.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:12
panda (Frustrated -- hui index) ID#30126:
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. ( AEM )
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc. ( FCX C pfd )
ASA Ltd. ( ASA )
Glamis Gold, Ltd. ( GLG )
Battle Mountain Gold Co. ( BMG )
Hecla Mining Co. ( HL )
Bema Gold Corp. ( BGO )
Homestake Mining Co. ( HM )
Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. ( CDE )
Kinross Gold Corp. ( KGC )
Echo Bay Mines Ltd. ( ECO )
Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM )
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc. ( FCX )

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:10
TPher (Silverbaron) ID#372235:
Thanks. Looks like the XAU is starting to resume its downtrend.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:05
panda (Frustrated-- Well, that didn't work...) ID#30126:
Copyright © 1998 panda/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Description
For 7,000 years, gold has been coveted for its aesthetic appeal. Today, jewlery production remains gold's leading use, but it is also required in electronics, dentistry, and, of course, as a hedge against inflation. The AMEX Gold BUGS Index follows short-term movements in the stock prices of gold mining companies that minimally hedge their production. World demand for gold for hedging purposes is the major factor affecting its price.

The AMEX Gold BUGS Index represents a portfolio of 13 major gold mining companies that have hedging ratios of less than 1 1/2 years of production. Options on HUI are intended to give investors exposure to near-term movements in gold prices, reflected in the share prices of Index components. For a current list of Index components and more details, go to HUI Contract Specifications.

http://www.amex.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/AmexWeb.woa/67451000007836000000083020000011/MainNavBar.wo/320130000031/3/7/205.187.189.19?38,29

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:04
Delphi (Russia) ID#258142:
There was an interview with Yeltsin at CNN half an hour ago. He has old-man’s amazing on his face. The only one thing that is interesting for him is to remain in his chair till Y2K. If any group of people will try to force him out of Kremlin, he will bring tanks to Moscow again - if he will be in his mind at the time

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:04
Silverbaron (TPher (XAU)) ID#289357:

An ascending triangle is a corrective pattern which usually resolves in a continuation of the direction of main trend. In this case, it is DOWN.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:02
panda (Frustrated) ID#30126:
Copyright © 1998 panda/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Try this link. If it doesn't work...
http://www.amex.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/AmexWeb.woa/67451000007836000000083020000011/MainNavBar.wo/320130000031/3/7/205.187.189.19?38,29>http://www.amex.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/AmexWeb.woa/67451000007836000000083020000011/MainNavBar.wo/320130000031/3/7/205.187.189.19?38,29

Description
For 7,000 years, gold has been coveted for its aesthetic appeal. Today, jewlery production remains gold's leading use, but it is also required in electronics, dentistry, and, of course, as a hedge against inflation. The AMEX Gold BUGS Index follows short-term movements in the stock prices of gold mining companies that minimally hedge their production. World demand for gold for hedging purposes is the major factor affecting its price.

The AMEX Gold BUGS Index represents a portfolio of 13 major gold mining companies that have hedging ratios of less than 1 1/2 years of production. Options on HUI are intended to give investors exposure to near-term movements in gold prices, reflected in the share prices of Index components. For a current list of Index components and more details, go to HUI Contract Specifications.

http://www.amex.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/AmexWeb.woa/67451000007836000000083020000011/MainNavBar.wo/320130000031/3/7/205.187.189.19?38,29

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 13:00
Cage Rattler (FED comment) ID#33184:
St Louis Fed President Poole said FOMC will follow Market if it is right on the economy and cut rates.

Keep in mind he has been a dove on the FOMC.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:55
TPher (XAU) ID#372235:
Looks like the XAU is forming ( or trying to form ) an ascending triangle formation as viewed on the 10 minute chart at Quote.Com
( http://www.quote.com/layout/index.frames.html?/cgi-bin/jchart-form ) .

Could we be looking at a short term popup in gold stocks towards the end of day?

Please advise.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:53
Gollum (Remember remember the depths of September) ID#35571:

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:51
moa__A (People are scared......we're getting there but ain't a PANIC yet.) ID#281175:
Copyright © 1998 moa__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
PANIC and despair....late Sept. or Oct., fat ladies'll be a wailing!

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/financial/story.html?s=v/ap/980828/financial/stories/world_markets_8.html

Russian gold coins within two weeks from Central Bank....Russia IS the k

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/financial/story.html?s=v/ap/980827/financial/stories/russia_gold_ruble_1.htmley!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:48
chas (Silverbaron re currency) ID#147201:
Do you have a web that is good for paper currency back to about 1860? TIA, Charlie

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:48
Silverbaron (chas & Skip) ID#289357:
Copyright © 1998 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Charlie - I don't know of any site for currencies back that far.

Skip - I hated to dump PAASF because I believe in silver's fundamentals and it is one of the better silver mining companies. ( I managed to turn a hefty profit into a modest loss by holding this one. ) However - sometimes I must let money management take contro of riskl.

It is becoming more apparent that the mining stocks are going to follow the overall markets down, and maybe get hurt more than the overall markets - I think it will only be a question of lack of ready buyers when the panic hits ( perhaps in a week or two ) .

When Nathan Rothschild coined the phrase Buy when there is blood running in the streets, he meant blood ACTUALLY running in the streets. We ain't there yet in the mining stocks, or in the overall stock market. I'm just doing what I can for some of the blood not to be mine when the time comes to buy.

Are we there yet in gold and silver ( metals ) ? I don't know, but in any case, I will keep up my practice of dollar-averaging into the physical market. I think I can ride through a crash holding my current small percentage ( and hedged ) exposure to mining stocks.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:47
Isure (PhinLA) ID#421269:
One thing you can rest assured of, a laughing GOLDBUG will be a hard thing to find, unless he has finally lost his mind. Totally possible!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:46
EZ Believer__A (Skip - Hang in there at all costs!) ID#226287:
Copyright © 1998 EZ Believer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Your comments mirror the feelings of many battered and beaten PM investors, including Me at times. A diligent study of past super bear markets will reveal a consistant fact: When the last bulls throw in the towel and there seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel, the turnaround is nea! Many PM stocks are selling at a fraction of book value. This does not consider vast sums of money spent on determining reserves which having already been proven, will be THE candidates for future takeover and production. A junior with proven reserves is a valuable company in spite of current perception by fickle investment community. The key is cash. On this forum several weeks ago, there were many negative comments on the importance of the cash positions of mining companies. The truth is currently being exposed. Companies with cash can weather the storm. The Juniors biting the bullet are those who have run out of working capital and have no hope of getting a financing package.

The silver lining in this cloud is that at current prices it takes very little new investment capital to double up our positions. If one is fully invested
at this point get out and work your as_ off and increase your positions.

My greatest concern for fellow Kitco brothers and sisters is an attitude buried in Skip's comments: untill we can just get a return of invested capital. Many PM investors have been permanently scarred and will miss the run they worked so hard to achieve. As soon as PM's recover they will sell at break even. Then the momentum investors will appear from nowhere and reap the rewards. Not Me.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:46
FOX-MAN__A (Well folks, I guess I've been defeated. The manipulators have won. I've known) ID#288186:
ever since I got in to futures that I could lose big. Of course, greed
was telling me I could win big. I know there's probably a little hope left in me, but all in all, I'm not sure I'll ever get back to even.
Prayers are needed for those of us fools for which our money has departed. Thanks, Foxman

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:45
moa__A (SDRer...howsat $269 figured?) ID#281175:
1USD=1Euro=1/269 gold ounce?...I don't get it.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:45
Gollum (@Avalon ) ID#35571:
That's all right. We haven't been taking any passengers since Tuesday. Too risky. Sent out a rookie Wednesday. Got blown out of the sky during midst of Hurricane Bonnie Thursday. Went back armed today. Successful mission.

Skies should be safe for flying next week or two, but I did see some VERY dark clouds out on the eastern horizon while we were buzzing around over the front lines.

Ominous.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:43
SDRer__A () ID#290172:
Yen/USD Trading Survey ( week starting 8/24/98 )
http://plaza4.mbn.or.jp/~skoike/survey_e.htm

Elliot Wave Analysis-Japanese version
http://plaza4.mbn.or.jp/~skoike/elliott.htm

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:33
Suspicious (I do believe that the PPT ) ID#287312:
is spending some of our money today.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:29
Avalon (Captain Gollum; You need much larger checkin counters and more ticket) ID#254269:
agents. Couldn't get on the flight yesterday or this morning.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:27
Gollum (DOW -27) ID#35571:
Have completed mission. The Eastern menace is elminated!!! Am returning to base for great VE day celebration!!!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:22
hamlet (Cambior earnings up) ID#390259:
Just had a chance to read CBJ 2nd half financial report. Net earnings were up 10 times. And still the shareprice tanks. Wonder what such a report would do with MS, GM etc. Hold out as I do. Our time will come
Hamlet

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:17
SDRer__A (PATIENCE -- Our day is coming...) ID#290172:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Considering all the turmoil in the currency markets, They are doing remarkably well. There is difficulty keeping the dollar up, but you will note that the Chinese received a 10% or so devaluation against the Euro, which will be USD in five short months.

One obtains a good view of the wizard's magic when one views the crosses -the gold crosses not the straight currency crosses.
It is not an easy passage -Their pilot was perhaps trained by Gollum?

As of 7/8/98-
1 Euro = 152.853 yen;
1 Euro = 8.969399 CNY;
1 Euro = 1.0833 USD.
1 Euro = 1.9808 DEM

1 ounce XAU = EURO 268.306
1 ounce XAU = $530.94 DEM
1 ounce XAU = $292.400 US Dollar

For the 1 USD = 1 Euro, absolute parity, gold must move to $269.444 ( or thereabouts )

As of 8/28/98
1 Euro = 156.403 Yen
1 Euro = 9.0542 Chinese Yuan Renminbi ( shall we discuss devaluation? )
1 Euro = 1.0935 US Dollar
1 Euro = 1.9760 German Mark
1 ounce XAU = 254.203 Euro
1 ounce XAU = 502.485 German Mark
1 ounce XAU = 278.200 US Dollar
For the 1 USD = 1 Euro, absolute parity, gold must move to $269.444 ( or thereabouts )

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:10
chas (Silverbaron re currency) ID#147201:
Do you have a web that is good for paper currency back to about 1860? TIA, Charlie

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:03
Gollum (DOW -94) ID#35571:
Have dropped bombs and completed Immelamnn turn. Will go back down to access damage.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 12:02
cjk (Gold Stocks) ID#340262:
My penny gold stock portfolio is holding up better than
my blue chip gold shares - I am keeping myself about 30%
in cash and will be buying more gold shares on big dips.

If I was living in south America or central America I would be
getting out of my local currencies as soon as possible in light
of what has happened to asian and other currencies - cjk

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:56
cjk (gold stocks) ID#340262:
My penny gold stock portfolio is holding up better than
my blue chip gold shares - I am keeping myself about 30%
in cash and will be buying more gold shares on big dips.

If I was living in south America or central America I would be
getting out of my local currencies as soon as possible in light
of what has happened to asian and other currencies - cjk

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:56
cjk (gold stocks) ID#340262:
My penny gold stock portfolio is holding up better than
my blue chip gold shares - I am keeping myself about 30%
in cash and will be buying more gold shares on big dips.

If I was living in south America or central America I would be
getting out of my local currencies as soon as possible in light
of what has happened to asian and other currencies - cjk

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:54
cjk (gold stocks) ID#340262:
My penny gold stock portfolio is holding up better than
my blue chip gold shares - I am keeping myself about 30%
in cash and will be buying more gold shares on big dips.

If I was living in south America or central America I would be
getting out of my local currencies as soon as possible in light
of what has happened to asian and other currencies - cjk

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:54
lady_bug (skip, many are in the same boat as you) ID#320202:

I don't know, ...in all that gloom and doom,.....I see something good,
have you all realized that they are starting to talk and write about gold, almost daily now on CNBC in the financial papers, etc.etc......
that too me , is a good sign, ...it will come , ....patience.....

l_b

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:54
cjk (gold stocks) ID#340262:
My penny gold stock portfolio is holding up better than
my blue chip gold shares - I am keeping myself about 30%
in cash and will be buying more gold shares on big dips.

If I was living in south America or central America I would be
getting out of my local currencies as soon as possible in light
of what has happened to asian and other currencies - cjk

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:43
2BR02B? (Frustrated) ID#266105:

I think the HUI is an index of unhedged producers.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:39
TYoung (AG, AG...warning .....) ID#317193:
Commodities are tanking in US$ terms...think this is a currency problem...please fix ASAP... Continued spiril down will cause a world crisis.

Please respond to this situation...NOW!

Tom

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:36
MM (Losing radio contact) ID#350179:
Gold fixed Friday morning at a 19-year low of $273.40 an ounce, the lowest since May 30, 1979, when it fixed at $272.60.

Gold hits 19-year low
http://cnnfn.com/markets/wires/9808/28/gold_wg/

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:25
Gollum (DOW -115) ID#43185:
We have sighted the enemy and are going doen to the attack! It looks like they are at 7900 feet.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:25
HopeFull ($ tanking, NEM up, HM steady............the swing to gold may be at hand) ID#402148:
.............as the BIG STOCKS are taking their hit.......Japanese gonna take theur money home, letting YEN slide a few days to make the postage cheaper?


HB

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:18
Woody__A (Skip) ID#243166:
I am there with you, however the sentiment is so extremely bearish that we have to get a rally soon.....don't we? Rather be in PMs now anyway with the Dow ready to take out 8000 any minute.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:17
MM (Bumpy ride) ID#350179:

Gollum - any icing? Watch for micro-bursts later on...

In Wall Street parlance, this would mean an ice-driven bear market, a radical departure from the fire-driven bear markets of the past, meaning inflationary fire as the economy overheats.

Deflation May Herald Onset of Bear Market
http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/NATION/t000078474.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:16
Woody__A (Skip) ID#243166:
I am there with you, however the sentiment is so extremely bearish that we have to get a rally soon.....don't we? Rather be in PMs now anyway with the Dow ready to take out 8000 any minute.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:16
John Disney__A (freight train .. freight train .. gone agin ..) ID#24135:
yeah salty ..
a million or so spins ago I was singin
this very song and a pickin mah geetar
in Adelaide at night in a coffee shop.
I wasnt a purist .. I did it to pick
up girls .. sometimes it worked.
Talking dustbowl blues .. if you
aint got the do re mee .. yeah

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:16
rube (abx) ID#333127:
ABX is in free fall mode

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:14
Skip (@Silverbaron) ID#287129:
Copyright © 1998 Skip/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You wrote: I'm a major silver bull, but scared as hell of the current market in any stocks......

You went on to describe the current scenario as a nightmare. That's about the best choice of words I've seen to describe what has happened to us goldbugs over the last 18 months. I wish to God that I'd gotten totally out of silver last winter; but after Buffet's purchase, it seemed as though $8.00 silver was a certainty. My plan was to get out at $7.50 - but it would never stay up there long enough for me to sell. Would to God that I'd sold all at $7.25!!!

Indeed, this IS a nightmare. Every time I believe that gold can go no lower, it goes lower. Every time I believe my gold stocks have finally hit bottom ( after some 95% losses ) , they go lower. Naturally, I was heavily invested in Pegasus, which is now less than three cents per share. Just look at the charts and you'll see where Pegasus was in the spring of 1997. Ouch!!!!!!!!!! Also, my other heavy stock was Caledonia Mining, which is at about 15 cents per share. ( I bought at $5.00 per share. ) Although CALVF may be de-listed from Nasdaq next week, I believe the company will survive this nightmare fiasco, which is more than I can say for Pegasus. CALVF is also on the Toronto exchange as CAL-T. Assuming that gold turns around within the next few months, I believe that Caledonia Mining is a steal at these prices...and I only wish that I could buy more shares. Instead, I might be forced to sell.

Will this nightmare turn into a decent dream soon?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:13
Frustrated (HUI - Gold Bug Index?) ID#298259:
Can someone tell me what stocks comprise this index? Down only 0.32% today.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:09
trader_vic__A (OldGold and EJ) ID#369352:
Copyright © 1998 trader_vic__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Yee of so little faith...ANOTHER will be proven correct in time...his thoughts are not for the short trade, but those of a seasoned speculator...truth sometimes takes a long time to manifest itself, such as the Bill Clinton affair...especially with markets that are being manipulated by those who have considerable influence on the markets. ANOTHER is not to be judged as either a fake or charliton, but as a person who expresses his view as he sees it...you don't have to believe him if you don't want to, but as all of us have our opinions, we don't have to cast him/her as an outcast...personally, my 25 years of trading sees me siding with his comments and directions...Rome was not built in a day...but as Rome, it too fell over time.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:07
PH in LA (Laughing at realistic chatter!) ID#225408:
Copyright © 1998 PH in LA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Many thinking ones laugh at such foolish chatter. ( ANOTHER )

All:
Here is what we can now look forward to:

Dear ANOTHER, Gold has now been below $280 for 24 and one-half hours. Why do we not see the BIS buying gold for all to see?

Dear ANOTHER, Gold has now been below $280 for 25 hours. Why do we not see the BIS buying gold for all to see?

Dear ANOTHER, Gold has now been below $280 for 25 and one-half hours. Why do we not see the BIS buying gold for all to see?

Etc. etc. etc.

Baa, Baa, Baa...

Foolish chatter.....more foolish chatter....even more foolish chatter.

Realistic:
Do you realistically think you will ever see anything the BIS does?

Do you really think you have any point at all, when what you quoted was written in January? Is the world the same now as it was then?

Oh well, you just keep on making a realistic fool of yourself. We'll all just keep on laughing.






Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:07
Gollum (@trader_vic__A ) ID#43185:
Say again. Lot's of static. Did you say Rouble or rubble?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:04
TYoung (Realistic... BIS is buying on the open market....I know I have seen it....) ID#317193:
Fred BIS, a long time friend, bought a gold coin yesterday for $280. Didn't seem to move the market, however. : )

Tom

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 11:02
Gollum (@Puetz ) ID#43185:
Never fear Mr Puetz. No Kamikazee dives today. Everything is as quiet as a church on Thursday afternoon.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:55
Puetz (PREVIOUS POSTING) ID#226307:
MR. GOLLUM: THE PREVIOUS POSTING FOR FOR YOUR
ATTENTION -- AND YOUR AIR-LINE PILOTS.

PUETZ

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:52
Puetz (WHAT KIND OF PILOT ARE YOU?) ID#226307:
YOU NEVER TOLD ME A KAMAKAZI DIVE WAS PART OF THE
FLIGHT PLAN FOR TODAY! LET ME OUT. I WANT A REFUND.

REGARDS,

A SCARED MR. PUETZ

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:51
rube (to Skip) ID#333127:
A lot of us in the same boat.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:51
Suspicious (No bounce today is VERY BEARISH) ID#287312:
Sold a few puts this am to pickum back up after the bounce this afternoon. Ouch so far :{

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:47
Skip (Time is running out...) ID#287129:
Copyright © 1998 Skip/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Will someone get rid of this gold bear before it kills the rest of the gold bugs?

EZ Believer wrote: Instead smell the roses! There has never been a better time in history to earn vast sums of valuable fiat currency! Anyone who can't make money in this economic climate is either incompetent or lazy. Now is the time to be eliminating debt and stacking up substantial positions in PM's for pennies on the dollar! I hope things continue as they are for as long as possible before the USA gets sucked into the financial hurricane.

It would be WONDERFUL to eliminate debt; but for some of us that's impossible until we can get at LEAST a return of original capital on our premature PM investments. Buying gold and PM stock too soon put many of us into a no-win situation. I gambled and lost...and lost...and lost... and can only pray to break even at best, unless there is a financial miracle. God, I wish that I had never even heard of the Wall Street Underground and other newsletters that urged me to sell my stock and buy gold and PM stocks in recent years.

Maybe this buying window of gold is good for those of you that still have money; but for many of us, time is our enemy. Time is running out...

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:42
Realistic (@ANOTHER) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gold has been well below US$ $280 for almost 24 hours now.

Can you tell us how come the BIS didn't come in to buy it OUTRIGHT in the OPEN for all to see?

Thanks.


Date: Sat Jan 10 1998 21:03
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
Someone once said, “noone wants gold, that’s why the US$ price keeps falling”. Many thinking ones laugh at such foolish chatter. They know that the price of gold is dropping precisely because “too many people are buying it”! Think now, if you are a person of “great worth” is it not better for you to acquire gold over years, at better prices? If you
are one of “small worth”, can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? I tell you, it is an easy path to follow! An experienced guide is not needed for this trail, look around you and see. The real money is selling ALL FORMS of paper gold and buying physical! Why? Because any form of paper gold is loosing value much, much faster than metal. Some paper will disappear all together in a fire of epic proportions! The massive trading continues at LBMA, but something is now missing? The CBs are no longer lending! They will not anymore! We have reached production costs. Oil will have nothing of “gold paper” if gold must stay in the ground! And a CB values the wishes of oil far above it’s return of leased gold! Hear me now, “if gold tries to go lower than US$ $280 the BIS will buy it OUTRIGHT in the OPEN for all to see”! They must! They will! I know. For no currency system could stand if “Oil” were to bid for gold!

Oil has kept “the deal” as the CBs sold paper to lower golds price! All is fair. Asia will bid for gold not as in the past. They now know that the free flow of oil has more value than the Pacific economy. But the price that was paid may be more than the world currency system can endure.

To close:

The US$ has risen on a flight of fear. That will now end as the LBMA shorts are given to wolves. If this fire burns too hot, gold will turn and it’s trading halted. The price of oil will explode as gold becomes the “world oil currency”! Even now oil has locked the IMFs gold, Asia will bid against them no more. We come to extreame times.

Risk not your wealth in paper, we enter a period of truth.


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:39
TYoung (Gollum...let the folks on the ground know your up there...) ID#317193:
I see some fear starting to show!

Gold...I suspect if you bought @ $290 that $270 is an even better dael. Yes?

Tom

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:39
Silverbaron (Unloaded about 80% of my PAASF this morning at the open) ID#289357:
I'm a major silver bull, but scared as hell of the current market in any stocks......

Market exposure now only about 20% - still holding SWC, DROOY, RANGY, PAASF and a few cats and dogs which will ride thru to the other side of this nightmare. All else is now cash and coin of precious metal, plus some LEAP SNP puts.

Just my status & this is not investment advice

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:37
Gianni Dioro__A (Hoskins' comments on Y2K) ID#384350:
-
When I spoke to Hoskins a few weeks back, I told him I wanted to get a rural cottage with a vegetable garden. He said you better start planting right away, telling me to be sure that the seed I used was not hybrid/sterile like much of it is these days.

He spoke of how the US imports something like 50% of its food, and fears what Y2K might do to the US as the food won't be able to get from point A to point B ( this applies to many countries ) .

Hoskins says, Everyone should be prepared at all times for an unexpected calamity. The US has become a rigid fragile empire vulnerable to any dislocation. When empires fall, people die En Masse. If the Y2K does what some envision, 40% of the population will be dead in 30 days. What's needed? - Food, clothing, weapons, and transportation. Where's a safe place? - where your friends are.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:35
Gianni Dioro__A (Aurator, StudioR - Billy Bragg) ID#384350:
-
I saw Billy Bragg in Paris about 6 years ago. He had to move to a smaller venue because the French had never heard of him. He was a little bitter about it, but it was pretty cool, kind of like seeing a garage band. He didn't play long though, and between each song he would go on ranting against John Major, fascism, rascism, and conservatives.

A friend tells me Billy Bragg was sent to the Falklands while serving in the Queen's army, and some of his songs are war protest songs, like Help save the youth of America.

He has 2 great albums that I'm aware of: Talking to the Taxman about Poetry and Don't Try This at Home. I'll look out for the new effort. It could be another Jagger/Richards. Also Billy has a strong accent, he could take an elocution lesson or two.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:35
Gollum (DOW -41) ID#43185:
I came down a little to survey the scene. Dead and wounded everywhere. I think I'll go back up a couple of hundered meters to get abouve these infernal barrage balloons.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:33
Selby (A Test of the Elliott Wave) ID#286230:
Just read the Precter interview posted below by Vronsky. If he has got it near right I'd be long tuna and water purifiers. A Must Read for everyone looking beyond 7500 DOW.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:33
trader_vic__A (Kitco) ID#372228:
This Kitco site must be tied to the Russian Rouble...it keeps going down...Gollum, I hope your airline doesn't fly like this...it's to early to crash land...

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:26
skinny (Bill D) ID#28994:
You Wonder Watsup with the Dow.
Investers are fleeing the stocks and are considering the $ U.S.A. as the safe haven for their investments.
What they are not taking into consideration is the U.S.$300 plus Billion trade deficit, this will force a crash in the greenback sooner than later. The American economy will falter under this kind of trade inbalance. As Gold is still the second choice as a safe haven for investors the price of gold will rise on the decline of the dollar.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:25
BillD (@Golden Prophet) ID#258427:
?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:17
THE GOLDEN PROPHET (Bill D) ID#372262:
Obviously not the BOW WOW DOW!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:17
Colombo (CNBC talk about gold) ID#337168:
I just saw CNBC interview Douglas Cohen ( a gold analyst ) .

He told us that gold was weak right now but that $250 was an 'ulitmate bottom' but he believed it woulnt get so low. When asked what would cause the POG to rise, he stated a weakening in the US$.

It was the first time I saw CNBC even mention gold. I wonder if this might give Mr sixpack some new investment ideas...

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:17
THE GOLDEN PROPHET (Bill D) ID#372262:
Obviously not the DOW!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:16
vronsky (Robert Prechter Says This Is the Big One) ID#427357:
Copyright © 1998 vronsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Nationally-syndicated journalist Rick Ackerman conducted the
following interview with Robert Prechter for the San Francisco Examiner.

Exactly sixteen years ago, with the Dow Industrial Average wallowing in the doldrums near 800, Elliott Wave theorist Robert S. Prechter tweaked Wall Street's imagination with his prediction that the most spectacular bull market in history was about to begin. And so it did, right on schedule, with a seismic lurch in mid-August 1982 that forever etched itself into the memory of anyone who was working in the trading pits, as I was. In the decade that followed, with the Dow ratcheting inexorably toward Prechter's once seemingly unattainable target at 3600, his influence and fame became legend.

Prechter is not only a bear, he is a GRIZZLY BEAR!

The tantalizing interview may be read at the following URL. Delete extra en letters in the word golden before posting it to the Internet:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/ackerman082898.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:14
Gollum (DOW -27) ID#43185:
Ahhh it feels good up here in the open air, scarf blowing in the wind and the smell of hot castor oil from the engine. The wookie reports no enemy in sight. But he's keeping the twin Vicker's at the ready just in case.

Looking down over the edge I see no movement as we proceed toward the eastern front Lot's of signs of carnage with columns of black smoke rising here and there.

Ah, there's a railroad track down there. Now where did I put my map?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:13
panda (xau5 @ 9:30) ID#30126:
ROTFL! :- ) ) :- ) )

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:06
OLD GOLD (RJ.) ID#242325:
We may disagree on the Dow, but we agree on ANOTHER. You have long said he is a total fraud; reluctantly I am forced to concur.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 10:03
BillD (Whoa...what happened....) ID#258427:
dow up +40...look next down 20 ... a 60 point drop in 5 minutes

whatzup

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:51
SDRer__A () ID#290172:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Russian fears seize markets in Eastern Europe
Plunge exceeds even the hefty falls in Western Europe
( 1 ) [LONDON]
From Warsaw to Lisbon and Oslo to Athens, European shares skidded yesterday as markets feared for the worst in Russia, with anxiety at its keenest in the east of the continent where investors showed signs of beginning to panic.
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/5/nfrnt02.html

( 2 ) Easier monetary policy but no 'shocking' measures: Daim
He sees M'sia returning to growth of 1% by next year
By Eddie Toh in Kuala Lumpur
MALAYSIA will shift gear and pursue an easier monetary policy to resuscitate the cash-strapped economy but there will be no shocking measures which the markets have feared following recent remarks by the Prime Minister, said Special Functions Minister Daim Zainuddin yesterday.
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/5/nfrnt04.html

( 3 ) BT News Update: ( 7.30pm )
Malaysian Finance Ministry confirms departure of central bank chief
KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 28 - MALAYSIAN central bank governor Ahmad
Don, a close ally of beleaguered Finance Minister Anwar Ibrahim, has thrown in the towel after months of bickering with Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad on the direction of the country's monetary policy.


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:50
cherokee (@....peopleo....will.believe.anything.......) ID#288229:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee All rights reserved

where is the open buying of gold that 'ANOTHER' dummy said would
happen?

big trader.......another......THOUGHTS FROM ANOTHER...wooooooooooooo

and double woooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.....bull sh!t...

yes, i see them now......maw & paw kettle are buying an ounce a month...
out in the open too!!! wow what an avalanche of buying....guess the
bottom is in.....

time for more THOUGHTS......mmmmmmmmmmm....me thinkum another do
thinkum for meum........thinkin thoughtsem.....mmmmm goodem......

see the wayum now......do as they sayum, not as they doum.....okum.

cherokeeum.....paying-homage-to-peopleo..with.histrionics...fd.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:39
EZ Believer__A (Contrarian Indicator) ID#173262:
Copyright © 1998 EZ Believer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
When the Kitco fans start throwing in the towel over the POG and PM equities my heart is warmed. Our time is about to come! We are currently presented with the greatest opportunity of our lifetimes. The length and depth of this great bear market only serves to coil the spring. Many speak of buying when there is blood in the streets, but few have the foresight or the guts.

As for those who keep praying for a crash in the DOW, wake up! If you are decieved enough to think this will improve you life you are a blind fool. A full blown depression in the USA could be enough to push many of your PM equity holdings over the cliff. Then we will see how wonderful your life is cluthching your yellow and white metal as your world unravels.

Instead smell the roses! There has never been a better time in history to earn vast sums of valuable fiat currency! Anyone who can't make money in this economic climate is either incompetent or lazy. Now is the time to be eliminating debt and stacking up substantial positions in PM's for pennies on the dollar! I hope things continue just as they are for as long as possible before the USA gets sucked into the financial hurricane.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:35
OLD GOLD (DOW 10,000?) ID#242325:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
RJ: Dow to 10,000? Possible but very unlikely.. We are now in a confirmed Dow theory bear market. Until this kind of wishful thinking ( undoubtedly shared by many others ) is erased the tend will remain down, ooccasionAL sharp rallies notwithstanding.

Shepler has been deadly accurzate about this bear to date and he remains VERY BEARISH.


SHEPLER MARKET TIMER
for 8/28/98

Current Position: Rydex Ursa fund since 8/12/98
Purchase NAV: 10.24 ( split adjusted )
Current NAV as of 8/27/98 close: 10.75

Return on current trade: 4.98%

Shepler Market Timer Returns since 4/8/98 inception: 16.36%
Buy and Hold S&P 500 Index Returns since 4/8/98: -5.36%


Market Commentary:

We're back from our recent travel, and very happy to see the market
continued to follow our bearish prognostications. Thursday was quite a
day for Shepler Market Timer subscribers, as the S&P 500 cash index lost
41.6 points ( 3.83% ) and the September S&P futures continued to sell-off
hard after the cash market closed finishing at 6.59 discount to cash.
This suggests that Friday's trade will see more deterioration unless the
futures rally in overnight trade which is highly unlikely. We think that
we have just witnessed the start of the crash wave that we have been
expecting in this timeframe. The market is giving us several indications
that Thursday's bloodbath was just the opening salvo in a much larger
downwave.
Market internals were at record setting bearish levels Thursday. New
lows hit an eye-popping 1009 issues Thursday. We have not verified it,
but we are fairly certain that this is an all-time record. Meanwhile new
highs were a laughable 14 issues. That's right, new lows beat out new
highs by a whopping 72 to 1 margin! Decliners continued to trounce
Advancers by an 8 to 1 margin at 2871 issues to 358 issues. To make
matters worse for the bulls, all this is happening on expanding volume,
confirming the strength of the decline. Thursday's trading saw 939
million shares trade hands, the second highest volume ever on the big
board. Of that 939 million shares, 882 million was down volume, an
all-time record down volume. The nearly record setting volume coupled
with the major deterioration in the new lows versus new highs leads us
to believe the main event has gotten underway. We will have to watch
events closely over the next few days, but if volume continues to
increase as prices drop, we could be in for some major fireworks. Our
proprietary buy/sell indicator is getting close to the buy zone, but is
not there yet and will require more heavy selling if it is to get there
in the coming days. If we see another very large decline Friday, then we
could be set-up for a mini ( or not so mini ) crash low on Monday or
Tuesday of next week.
On the market sentiment front, speculators continue to buy the dips,
showing an incredible level of complacency despite the clear bear market
warning signals. The OEX put/call ratio Thursday was .66, an
astonishingly low value for a day that saw the Dow fall 357 points. This
put/call ratio is the type of reading that would normally be seen at
record highs as opposed to the depths that the market is currently
trading at. We cannot overemphasize the danger signalled by such
speculative complacency. An OEX put/call ratio of .66 is a signal of a
topping market, not a bottoming one. It is spectacularly bearish to see
such a reading on a massive down day like Thursday. What it tells us is
that bulls are still in denial, searching frantically for the next major
bottom. We wonder how much damage the market will have to sustain before
they finally capitulate. Rydex fund switchers seem to have gotten the
message though, as the Rydex ratio jumped to 129%, and assets in the
Ursa fund surpassed $1 billion for the first time we can remember. Some
johnny come lately bears are joining the party, but that doesn't mean
the party is over yet. A Rydex ratio of 129% may have been a buy signal
in a bull market, but who knows how low it will fall in a real bonafide
bear market such as the one we are currently in. Remember, oversold in a
bull market is quite a bit different than oversold in a bear market.
Bulls are going to get slaughtered trying to pick bottoms in this bear
market as we get oversold and stay oversold trending ever lower.
The bull market mantra was buy and hold, and let the trend be your
friend. We are going to employ this in reverse, as we sell short and
hold, and let the trend be our friend. This baby bear has a long time
yet to mature. We remain short the market via our current highly
profitable Ursa trade, with no intentions to make any switches until the
dust settles.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:34
OLD GOLD (DOW 10,000?) ID#242325:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
RJ: Dow to 10,000? Possible but very unlikely.. We are now in a confirmed Dow theory bear market. Until this kind of wishful thinking ( undoubtedly shared by many others ) is erased the tend will remain down, ooccasionAL sharp rallies notwithstanding.

Shepler has been deadly accurzate about this bear to date and he remains VERY BEARISH.


SHEPLER MARKET TIMER
for 8/28/98

Current Position: Rydex Ursa fund since 8/12/98
Purchase NAV: 10.24 ( split adjusted )
Current NAV as of 8/27/98 close: 10.75

Return on current trade: 4.98%

Shepler Market Timer Returns since 4/8/98 inception: 16.36%
Buy and Hold S&P 500 Index Returns since 4/8/98: -5.36%


Market Commentary:

We're back from our recent travel, and very happy to see the market
continued to follow our bearish prognostications. Thursday was quite a
day for Shepler Market Timer subscribers, as the S&P 500 cash index lost
41.6 points ( 3.83% ) and the September S&P futures continued to sell-off
hard after the cash market closed finishing at 6.59 discount to cash.
This suggests that Friday's trade will see more deterioration unless the
futures rally in overnight trade which is highly unlikely. We think that
we have just witnessed the start of the crash wave that we have been
expecting in this timeframe. The market is giving us several indications
that Thursday's bloodbath was just the opening salvo in a much larger
downwave.
Market internals were at record setting bearish levels Thursday. New
lows hit an eye-popping 1009 issues Thursday. We have not verified it,
but we are fairly certain that this is an all-time record. Meanwhile new
highs were a laughable 14 issues. That's right, new lows beat out new
highs by a whopping 72 to 1 margin! Decliners continued to trounce
Advancers by an 8 to 1 margin at 2871 issues to 358 issues. To make
matters worse for the bulls, all this is happening on expanding volume,
confirming the strength of the decline. Thursday's trading saw 939
million shares trade hands, the second highest volume ever on the big
board. Of that 939 million shares, 882 million was down volume, an
all-time record down volume. The nearly record setting volume coupled
with the major deterioration in the new lows versus new highs leads us
to believe the main event has gotten underway. We will have to watch
events closely over the next few days, but if volume continues to
increase as prices drop, we could be in for some major fireworks. Our
proprietary buy/sell indicator is getting close to the buy zone, but is
not there yet and will require more heavy selling if it is to get there
in the coming days. If we see another very large decline Friday, then we
could be set-up for a mini ( or not so mini ) crash low on Monday or
Tuesday of next week.
On the market sentiment front, speculators continue to buy the dips,
showing an incredible level of complacency despite the clear bear market
warning signals. The OEX put/call ratio Thursday was .66, an
astonishingly low value for a day that saw the Dow fall 357 points. This
put/call ratio is the type of reading that would normally be seen at
record highs as opposed to the depths that the market is currently
trading at. We cannot overemphasize the danger signalled by such
speculative complacency. An OEX put/call ratio of .66 is a signal of a
topping market, not a bottoming one. It is spectacularly bearish to see
such a reading on a massive down day like Thursday. What it tells us is
that bulls are still in denial, searching frantically for the next major
bottom. We wonder how much damage the market will have to sustain before
they finally capitulate. Rydex fund switchers seem to have gotten the
message though, as the Rydex ratio jumped to 129%, and assets in the
Ursa fund surpassed $1 billion for the first time we can remember. Some
johnny come lately bears are joining the party, but that doesn't mean
the party is over yet. A Rydex ratio of 129% may have been a buy signal
in a bull market, but who knows how low it will fall in a real bonafide
bear market such as the one we are currently in. Remember, oversold in a
bull market is quite a bit different than oversold in a bear market.
Bulls are going to get slaughtered trying to pick bottoms in this bear
market as we get oversold and stay oversold trending ever lower.
The bull market mantra was buy and hold, and let the trend be your
friend. We are going to employ this in reverse, as we sell short and
hold, and let the trend be our friend. This baby bear has a long time
yet to mature. We remain short the market via our current highly
profitable Ursa trade, with no intentions to make any switches until the
dust settles.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:34
OLD GOLD (DOW 10,000?) ID#242325:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
RJ: Dow to 10,000? Possible but very unlikely.. We are now in a confirmed Dow theory bear market. Until this kind of wishful thinking ( undoubtedly shared by many others ) is erased the tend will remain down, ooccasionAL sharp rallies notwithstanding.

Shepler has been deadly accurzate about this bear to date and he remains VERY BEARISH.


SHEPLER MARKET TIMER
for 8/28/98

Current Position: Rydex Ursa fund since 8/12/98
Purchase NAV: 10.24 ( split adjusted )
Current NAV as of 8/27/98 close: 10.75

Return on current trade: 4.98%

Shepler Market Timer Returns since 4/8/98 inception: 16.36%
Buy and Hold S&P 500 Index Returns since 4/8/98: -5.36%


Market Commentary:

We're back from our recent travel, and very happy to see the market
continued to follow our bearish prognostications. Thursday was quite a
day for Shepler Market Timer subscribers, as the S&P 500 cash index lost
41.6 points ( 3.83% ) and the September S&P futures continued to sell-off
hard after the cash market closed finishing at 6.59 discount to cash.
This suggests that Friday's trade will see more deterioration unless the
futures rally in overnight trade which is highly unlikely. We think that
we have just witnessed the start of the crash wave that we have been
expecting in this timeframe. The market is giving us several indications
that Thursday's bloodbath was just the opening salvo in a much larger
downwave.
Market internals were at record setting bearish levels Thursday. New
lows hit an eye-popping 1009 issues Thursday. We have not verified it,
but we are fairly certain that this is an all-time record. Meanwhile new
highs were a laughable 14 issues. That's right, new lows beat out new
highs by a whopping 72 to 1 margin! Decliners continued to trounce
Advancers by an 8 to 1 margin at 2871 issues to 358 issues. To make
matters worse for the bulls, all this is happening on expanding volume,
confirming the strength of the decline. Thursday's trading saw 939
million shares trade hands, the second highest volume ever on the big
board. Of that 939 million shares, 882 million was down volume, an
all-time record down volume. The nearly record setting volume coupled
with the major deterioration in the new lows versus new highs leads us
to believe the main event has gotten underway. We will have to watch
events closely over the next few days, but if volume continues to
increase as prices drop, we could be in for some major fireworks. Our
proprietary buy/sell indicator is getting close to the buy zone, but is
not there yet and will require more heavy selling if it is to get there
in the coming days. If we see another very large decline Friday, then we
could be set-up for a mini ( or not so mini ) crash low on Monday or
Tuesday of next week.
On the market sentiment front, speculators continue to buy the dips,
showing an incredible level of complacency despite the clear bear market
warning signals. The OEX put/call ratio Thursday was .66, an
astonishingly low value for a day that saw the Dow fall 357 points. This
put/call ratio is the type of reading that would normally be seen at
record highs as opposed to the depths that the market is currently
trading at. We cannot overemphasize the danger signalled by such
speculative complacency. An OEX put/call ratio of .66 is a signal of a
topping market, not a bottoming one. It is spectacularly bearish to see
such a reading on a massive down day like Thursday. What it tells us is
that bulls are still in denial, searching frantically for the next major
bottom. We wonder how much damage the market will have to sustain before
they finally capitulate. Rydex fund switchers seem to have gotten the
message though, as the Rydex ratio jumped to 129%, and assets in the
Ursa fund surpassed $1 billion for the first time we can remember. Some
johnny come lately bears are joining the party, but that doesn't mean
the party is over yet. A Rydex ratio of 129% may have been a buy signal
in a bull market, but who knows how low it will fall in a real bonafide
bear market such as the one we are currently in. Remember, oversold in a
bull market is quite a bit different than oversold in a bear market.
Bulls are going to get slaughtered trying to pick bottoms in this bear
market as we get oversold and stay oversold trending ever lower.
The bull market mantra was buy and hold, and let the trend be your
friend. We are going to employ this in reverse, as we sell short and
hold, and let the trend be our friend. This baby bear has a long time
yet to mature. We remain short the market via our current highly
profitable Ursa trade, with no intentions to make any switches until the
dust settles.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:34
OLD GOLD (DOW 10,000?) ID#242325:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
RJ: Dow to 10,000? Possible but very unlikely.. We are now in a confirmed Dow theory bear market. Until this kind of wishful thinking ( undoubtedly shared by many others ) is erased the tend will remain down, ooccasionAL sharp rallies notwithstanding.

Shepler has been deadly accurzate about this bear to date and he remains VERY BEARISH.


SHEPLER MARKET TIMER
for 8/28/98

Current Position: Rydex Ursa fund since 8/12/98
Purchase NAV: 10.24 ( split adjusted )
Current NAV as of 8/27/98 close: 10.75

Return on current trade: 4.98%

Shepler Market Timer Returns since 4/8/98 inception: 16.36%
Buy and Hold S&P 500 Index Returns since 4/8/98: -5.36%


Market Commentary:

We're back from our recent travel, and very happy to see the market
continued to follow our bearish prognostications. Thursday was quite a
day for Shepler Market Timer subscribers, as the S&P 500 cash index lost
41.6 points ( 3.83% ) and the September S&P futures continued to sell-off
hard after the cash market closed finishing at 6.59 discount to cash.
This suggests that Friday's trade will see more deterioration unless the
futures rally in overnight trade which is highly unlikely. We think that
we have just witnessed the start of the crash wave that we have been
expecting in this timeframe. The market is giving us several indications
that Thursday's bloodbath was just the opening salvo in a much larger
downwave.
Market internals were at record setting bearish levels Thursday. New
lows hit an eye-popping 1009 issues Thursday. We have not verified it,
but we are fairly certain that this is an all-time record. Meanwhile new
highs were a laughable 14 issues. That's right, new lows beat out new
highs by a whopping 72 to 1 margin! Decliners continued to trounce
Advancers by an 8 to 1 margin at 2871 issues to 358 issues. To make
matters worse for the bulls, all this is happening on expanding volume,
confirming the strength of the decline. Thursday's trading saw 939
million shares trade hands, the second highest volume ever on the big
board. Of that 939 million shares, 882 million was down volume, an
all-time record down volume. The nearly record setting volume coupled
with the major deterioration in the new lows versus new highs leads us
to believe the main event has gotten underway. We will have to watch
events closely over the next few days, but if volume continues to
increase as prices drop, we could be in for some major fireworks. Our
proprietary buy/sell indicator is getting close to the buy zone, but is
not there yet and will require more heavy selling if it is to get there
in the coming days. If we see another very large decline Friday, then we
could be set-up for a mini ( or not so mini ) crash low on Monday or
Tuesday of next week.
On the market sentiment front, speculators continue to buy the dips,
showing an incredible level of complacency despite the clear bear market
warning signals. The OEX put/call ratio Thursday was .66, an
astonishingly low value for a day that saw the Dow fall 357 points. This
put/call ratio is the type of reading that would normally be seen at
record highs as opposed to the depths that the market is currently
trading at. We cannot overemphasize the danger signalled by such
speculative complacency. An OEX put/call ratio of .66 is a signal of a
topping market, not a bottoming one. It is spectacularly bearish to see
such a reading on a massive down day like Thursday. What it tells us is
that bulls are still in denial, searching frantically for the next major
bottom. We wonder how much damage the market will have to sustain before
they finally capitulate. Rydex fund switchers seem to have gotten the
message though, as the Rydex ratio jumped to 129%, and assets in the
Ursa fund surpassed $1 billion for the first time we can remember. Some
johnny come lately bears are joining the party, but that doesn't mean
the party is over yet. A Rydex ratio of 129% may have been a buy signal
in a bull market, but who knows how low it will fall in a real bonafide
bear market such as the one we are currently in. Remember, oversold in a
bull market is quite a bit different than oversold in a bear market.
Bulls are going to get slaughtered trying to pick bottoms in this bear
market as we get oversold and stay oversold trending ever lower.
The bull market mantra was buy and hold, and let the trend be your
friend. We are going to employ this in reverse, as we sell short and
hold, and let the trend be our friend. This baby bear has a long time
yet to mature. We remain short the market via our current highly
profitable Ursa trade, with no intentions to make any switches until the
dust settles.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:30
xau5 (xau5) ID#210163:
Gold is proving to be a hedge against capital gains.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:26
SDRer__A (Paper Trails...) ID#290172:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Tokyo market commentary
[27AUG98 13:45 JST]
The dollar was mixed in the morning session with selling from US funds and buying from domestic cutomers. The dollar opened around 143.80 after triggering sell stops at the 143.70/80 level. It edged up to 143.94 along with losses in the Nikkei stock average which briefly hit as low as 14,378. US funds were said taking profits on their long dollar positions to offset huge losses arising from emerging markets. The US currency dipped to 143.42 but buy interests from Japanese investment trust funds pushed it back to 143.90 where US accounts again were seen selling dollars.
http://plaza4.mbn.or.jp/~skoike/mktcomm.htm

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:21
newtron (Several wise heads are calling for significant retracement today & even a few are looking for that ) ID#388209:
mythical 10k x 9/4 call, but CoheebaGate, not to mention Euro consternation over the Russian Bear will mute the retracement substantially if not nip it in the bud.
Don't be hysterical in the joyous Gold Bull expressions as they take up the hammer for the first time in 18 years, they are still delirioius from the joy of swinging the hammer at someone else's head, instead of their own ! But, please don't give us the sanctimonious crap about the histrionics that go along with the slaughter of innocent, but greedy Joe 6 & dumb as dirt soccer moms.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:18
RJ (..... Gollum .....) ID#411259:

My last post assuredly does not apply to you.
I have found your posts to be
Balanced, realistic , and often funny.
I read them all and find much of value within

Yes

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:17
RJ (..... Gollum .....) ID#411259:

My last post assuredly does not apply to you.
I have found your posts to be
Balanced, realistic , and often funny.
I read them all and find much of value within

Yes

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:17
panda (BOY! Talk about multiple postings!) ID#30126:
Yeltsin's speech to be made at 04:00 GMT.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:16
Junior (India Economic Times Reports - Efforts to Prevent US$ Dependence) ID#248180:
Copyright © 1998 Junior/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Friday 28 August, 1998
India sends team to press for barter trade with Asean
Our New Delhi Bureau

IN A move that carries implications for global trade, an Indian business delegation has taken off on a visit to ASEAN nations in order to press for barter trade and trade in local currencies with ASEAN countries, to prevent a dependence on the US dollar as the preferred currency for trade in the region.
The proposal, if accepted, will protect trade between India and these nations from being hit every time the local currency in any of these countries devalues against the dollar, officials said. This would also hurt the monopoly of the US dollar in international trade and prevent forex fluctuations from hampering bilateral or even multi-lateral trade.

The issue is being discussed by a business delegation from India, led by commerce secretary P P Prabhu, which is currently on a visit to three south-east Asian countries - Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines.

Officials here said the delegation will explore the possibilities of barter trade between India and ASEAN with their counterparts in those nations to avoid over-dependence on the US dollar. An official release said the delegation would also explore possibilities of trade in local currencies.

Discussions will also be held on extension of line of credit by the Export-Import Bank of India to Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines. The delegation will also study the possibilities of investment in these countries in view of the opportunities thrown up by the Asian currency crisis.

The business delegation members is scheduled to hold one-to-one meetings with their counterparts in the region. Talks will focus on thrust areas such as agricultural commodities - oil meals, meat, meat products and rice -, gem and jewellery, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, software and electronics goods.

The release said the visit assumes importance in the context of the currency crisis and India's `look east' policy aimed at giving a new thrust to trade with ASEAN.

India's trade with East Asian countries declined during April-May this year to 2.49 per cent compared to the same period in the previous year due to the south-east Asian crisis.

India has already said it favours barter trade with ASEAN. Commerce minister Ramakrishna Hegde also said in Singapore last week that the possibility of such trade was being explored to stop the overdependency on one currency.

Compared to the US dollar, the Japanese yen has slid by about 17 per cent since last year, South Korean won by 35 per cent and the Indonesian rupiah by over 80 per cent.












Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:13
trader_vic__A (Russian Gold) ID#372228:
Copyright © 1998 trader_vic__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A remark this morning on CNBC stated that gold was down $5 because of the fear that Russia would sell ALL THAT GOLD TO SAVE THEMSELVES....what a pile of B*llSh*t...first off, Russia just sh*t on all the financial markets yesterday because the rest of the free world wouldn't throw money at them and eliminate all their problems...also the mofia wanted all that money as it came into the country first...secondly, the last thing Russia would do right now is sell all their gold to save face with the world financial banks, or the people, or anyone else for that matter....and third, Russia has already sold almost all their gold prior to this....and forth, Russia has not paid their gold miners for a year now so why would anyone think that Russia had anymore coming in....so for the time being, the world financial spinmisters spin another story to control the masses...soon someone will have to say The King Has No Gold ( clothes ) !...

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:09
Tantalus__A (Like many here,) ID#374204:
Copyright © 1998 Tantalus__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I got some gold months ago thinking that this bull market had about run
it's course. While the Dow will most assuredly hit 10,000, it will first
hit 7,500 or lower.
And while I was cheerleading the Dow downturn, it was not in enjoying the
plight of others, so much as thinking I'd protected my own @ss and the
financial security of my FAMILY.
But it seems gold has lost it's luster, good for only jewelry and dental
work.
I've turned in my pom-poms and taken a seat in the bleachers-
cheerin' for the Christians at the Roman Coluseum.

LIONS 78, CHRISTIANS 0. Wherefore are thou, Demetrius?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:08
Woody__A (BMG) ID#243166:
BMG is exhibiting excellent relative strength. Any thoughts as to why? Thanks.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:05
panda (Gollum, I'm having a hell of a time getting in here....) ID#30126:
Copyright © 1998 panda/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
But to finish your 8:26; What if the Russians backed the Ruble with gold whilst all others around them 'melted away'? What if THEY stepped in and SAVED the others ( Eastern Europe and maybe more ) ? Is the Cold War over? Are the Communists done for? So many questions and so many damned fools in high places playing games... This is going to be one hellava ride...

Back later if I can get in! Even my ISP is bogging down... Must be those damned internet quote/trading things :- ) )

P.S. Yeltsin speaks tonight in Russia....
Commodity view---- http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/soapbox.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

Another good read --- http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/stwatch.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:03
panda (Gollum, I'm having a hell of a time getting in here....) ID#30126:
Copyright © 1998 panda/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
But to finish your 8:26; What if the Russians backed the Ruble with gold whilst all others around them 'melted away'? What if THEY stepped in and SAVED the others ( Eastern Europe and maybe more ) ? Is the Cold War over? Are the Communists done for? So many questions and so many damned fools in high places playing games... This is going to be one hellava ride...

Back later if I can get in! Even my ISP is bogging down... Must be those damned internet quote/trading things :- ) )

P.S. Yeltsin speaks tonight in Russia....
Commodity view---- http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/soapbox.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 09:02
panda (Gollum, I'm having a hell of a time getting in here....) ID#30126:
But to finish your 8:26; What if the Russians backed the Ruble with gold whilst all others around them 'melted away'? What if THEY stepped in and SAVED the others ( Eastern Europe and maybe more ) ? Is the Cold War over? Are the Communists done for? So many questions and so many damned fools in high places playing games... This is going to be one hellava ride...

Back later if I can get in! Even my ISP is bogging down... Must be those damned internet quote/trading things :- ) )

P.S. Yeltsin speaks tonight in Russia....

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:59
panda (Gollum, I'm having a hell of a time getting in here....) ID#30126:
But to finish your 8:26; What if the Russians backed the Ruble with gold whilst all others around them 'melted away'? What if THEY stepped in and SAVED the others ( Eastern Europe and maybe more ) ? Is the Cold War over? Are the Communists done for? So many questions and so many damned fools in high places playing games... This is going to be one hellava ride...

Back later if I can get in! Even my ISP is bogging down... Must be those damned internet quote/trading things :- ) )

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:49
FOX-MAN__A (Gollum; Yeah, by London's showing, silver looks ok, but I'm still scared) ID#288186:
sh*tless, that it's going to tank. And I probably ought to be.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:48
Donald (HSBC official says risk of a 30's style global depression are real) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980828/interview__3.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:47
Think Long & Hard On This (Gold Rubles) ID#358309:
May I present the following scenario:
1. Russians tout gold ruble currency. Goldbugs rejoice!
2. Markets recover somewhat in sucker rally
3. Markets begin to crash - this time it's the big one
4. Investors discover gold and the price rises
5. Gold ruble rejected, list of reasons given why it wouldn't work as a currency in today's world
6. Gold price tanks - rookie investors lose shirts, go back to paper.
Big one postponed yet again...

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:47
Silverbaron (XAU - gotta know when to hold 'em, & know when to fold 'em) ID#289357:

XAU chart is not a pretty sight - and does NOT look like a buying opportunity to me. More like the start of a meltdown, with price riding the lower Bollinger Band, and bands flaring out.

http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=120&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=bb&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=%24XAU.X

Silverbarondumpingminingstocksattheopen

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:45
Gollum (@FOX-MAN__A) ID#35571:
Got silver?

http://www.kitconet.com/silver.graph.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:37
Gollum (The Great Russian Bear trap) ID#35571:
Watch your charts, ladies and gentlemen, watch your charts.

http://www.kitconet.com/gold.graph.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:35
SILVERFOX (10K) ID#113316:
Copyright © 1998 SILVERFOX/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The DOW is NOT going to 10K, at least not in the near future. This is a confirmed bear market. Short term sharp rallies, followed by sell-offs to lower levels. Next target 7,500. Could happen in one day, maybe one week, maybe longer.

Inaction by US and Japan is the main cause for this world wide currency crisis. Both sides acting like they are playing a game of chicken. Who is going to flinch first. US needs to lower short term rates, Japan needs to raise short term rates. Dollar-yen needs to be stabilized. If that does not happen, then how can the smaller currencies be stable?

PMs are in a bear market expressed in dollar terms. Australians, South Africans, etc. looking at a bull market expressed in their currencies.


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:35
SILVERFOX (10K) ID#113316:
Copyright © 1998 SILVERFOX/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The DOW is NOT going to 10K, at least not in the near future. This is a confirmed bear market. Short term sharp rallies, followed by sell-offs to lower levels. Next target 7,500. Could happen in one day, maybe one week, maybe longer.

Inaction by US and Japan is the main cause for this world wide currency crisis. Both sides acting like they are playing a game of chicken. Who is going to flinch first. US needs to lower short term rates, Japan needs to raise short term rates. Dollar-yen needs to be stabilized. If that does not happen, then how can the smaller currencies be stable?

PMs are in a bear market expressed in dollar terms. Australians, South Africans, etc. looking at a bull market expressed in their currencies.


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:33
Realistic (@Puetz) ID#410194:
S&P is up extensively this morning...

Do you still think that the Dow will open 100 points down?

Thanks.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:09
Puetz ( STOCK MARKET CRASH ) ID#226307:
It looks like rough flying conditions for Gollum Air again tomorrow.
The S&P is trading at 1034 -- a 9 point discount to the S&P cash
close. It look like another 100 point loss for the DJIA on the opening
tomorrow morning.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:32
lefty kiwi__A (Aurator not hiding ........ ) ID#32176:
just scared to look at POG , i was hoping at last a bottom in gold but maybe some more long months with strange looks from wife and friends , Why does he buy gold

a bit p....d off tonight Otago B lost to Waikato

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:32
lefty kiwi__A (Aurator not hiding ........ ) ID#32176:
just scared to look at POG , i was hoping at last a bottom in gold but maybe some more long months with strange looks from wife and friends , Why does he buy gold

a bit p....d off tonight Otago B lost to Waikato

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:31
MoReGoLd (@Report: Russia May Mint Gold Rubles ---- NOW, I Really Like That !!! ) ID#348286:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Rumours that Russia is selling Gold is probablly more B/S from the shorts....

Thursday August 27, 10:25 pm Eastern Time
Report: Russia May Mint Gold Rubles

MOSCOW ( AP ) -- Russia's Central Bank is considering minting a batch of gold coins worth a total of $127 million in an attempt to help restore confidence in the ruble, a news report said Thursday.

The Association of Russian banks, which proposed the idea, has already secured support from members of the government and both houses of parliament, Dmitry Ignatyev, a department head with the association, told the Interfax news agency.

If the Central Bank agrees, the coins would be in circulation within two weeks, Ignatyev said. The value of individual coins would be set by the Central Bank.

The Central Bank has suspended all currency trading since Tuesday amid the latest economic crisis, as confidence in the ruble has nose-dived.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:28
newtron (Several wise heads are calling for significant retracement today & even a few are looking for that ) ID#388209:
mythical 10k x 9/4 call, but CoheebaGate, not to mention Euro consternation over the Russian Bear will mute the retracement substantially if not nip it in the bud.
Don't be hysterical in the joyous Gold Bull expressions as they take up the hammer for the first time in 18 years, they are still delirioius from the joy of swinging the hammer at someone else's head, instead of their own ! But, please don't give us the sanctimonious crap about the histrionics that go along with the slaughter of innocent, but greedy Joe 6 & dumb as dirt soccer moms.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:26
Gollum (panda and goldy88) ID#35571:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
This kind of explains why the Russian banks were only bidding to buy gold, not sell.

Let us dwell upon the way the Rothschilds, Warburgs, and Morgans operate.

What if they had a great exposure in Russia and were about to lose a great deal of money if Russia tanked? The IMF method was tried and tanked. Something more desperate was needed.

What if gold could be driven down to really low levels via market panic and paper manipulations. What if while the whole eorld was selling Mother Russia could buy every ounce of physical they could get their hands on?

And I guess a few other in the know might go long, say some unnamed large NY and European banks for instance, to recoup their losses.

What if the Russians then announced they were going to issue gold backed Rubles?

What then, my friends, what then?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:25
FOX-MAN__A (RJ; Wow! 10k on the dow? I certainly don't wish or hope for a market crash) ID#288186:
either. I guess my thinking on the DOW rebound would be to 9000 at
the most. But I'm only a beginner in this game we all play. That's
why this site is so great! You get to hear all the angles, from
amateurs to professionals!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:17
RJ (..... Cheerleaders .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Yesterday’s drop in the Dow was the third highest point drop ever.
This means that both of the bigger point drops reversed and led to new highs
The Dow WILL go to 10K, though some here, who speak of heart
Cheer for a crash, ignoring the lives it affects.
I wonder why some goldbugs feel
They must get rich only as all others loose their shirts.
Some seem to revel with glee whenever the Dow drops.
These folks, who claim to see the far horizon
Are instead myopic and callous and cruel
Cheering losses by others and praying for a crash
So that their measly gold may be worth a few more bucks.

Reminds me of president Clinton murdering innocent people
Halfway across the world, to gain a few points in the polls.

Every large drop in the Dow seems to bring out the folks
Who shout and swear and say, This is it! The crash is here
The same words they repeat every time the Dow drops
One day they too will be right, but not this year

Dow to 10K, not because I say so, but because it will.

OK

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:16
Gollum (@panda ) ID#35571:
As hte man said when his horse fell and broke it's leg, some good may come from this.

Russia appears to be done for. What if they, even more lost in the international financial crisis than any other, shoul follow through on their gold Ruble plan....AND IT WORKS!

Just baseing some currency on gold brings confidence back and life returns to eastern Europe.

Would not others then think, If they can do it, so can we?

Let us pray for our Russian friends.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:13
HopeFull (kapex, could not get in, what are his upside targets?) ID#402148:


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:11
Mtn Bear (SE) (Bounce in Dow?) ID#347267:
One technical reason for a bounce here: The Dow closed at around 8166; this is a long term support area because of the highs around Oct and Dec 1997. ( Previous highs act as support for those not technically inclined )
See http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^dji&d=b

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:11
FOX-MAN__A (panda; Boy, that news you just posted seems like it would be positive for) ID#288186:
Gold wouldn't it? I don't know how Gold and Silver will react today,
but it sure looks like the DOW wants to attempt a short term rally.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:10
Gollum (I need volunteers.) ID#35571:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
To stand picket duty and guard the generators back here at Kitco. It wasn't fun to have my instruement panels all go black just as that ground to air got launched at me yesterday.

I have recieved an intelligence report from my agents in the field who think they've located the missle site. I've got my leather flying helmet and jacket, my goggles, and a long scarf to wear around my neck. The wookie and I are going back up armed this time for a little bombing and strafing action. He's going to man ( ? ) the tail guns.

We've readjusted our grand strategy map to take into account the lost of our high perfomance albeit unarmed figher yesterday:

www.mrci.com/correl/lbrc001.htm

Merely a minor setback, and the September rally is still on, peak around 8900.

Now if you guys can stay awake and guard our rear, we're going to go roaring out of here.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:06
aurator () ID#257148:
FoxMan
Flat Pickin'...?
Yee Haa.

Gotta get myself to one of them festivals..
Maybe next March.

The music of the people, has always been so....cos it paints pikture in the brain and mesmerises the emotions.


I wish I could...

Flat pick an ol guitar....



Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:06
panda (I hate it when that happens!) ID#30126:
Russia may mint gold Rubles;
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980827/russia_gol_1.html

Russia banks propose gold as alternative to dollar;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980827/russia_gol_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 08:05
panda (I don't know if anyone has posted these stories, but) ID#30126:
they are damned interesting...

Russia may mint gold Rubles;
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980827/russia_gol_1.html

Russia banks propose gold as alternative to dollar;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980827/russia_gol_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:59
FOX-MAN__A (aurator; Yep. I'm a big Bluegrass-aholic if you want to narrow it down.) ID#288186:
Pickin' and Grinnin'!! That's what it's all about!! Big BG Festival
is coming up Mid Sept in Winfield ( south about an hour ) . National
flat-picking championships and what-not. This, to me, is REAL music
and talent!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:55
Silverbaron (ROR @ XAU mining stocks) ID#289357:
A word of warning.....Jeil's projection for HM thus far has been deadly accurate, and yesterday's action reinforces the proposition that the XAU stocks will go down with the overall stock markets. Use close stops if your do.

Caveat Emptor, baby.

http://www.pcis.net/jeannev/hmdaup.gif

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:54
aurator (off topic~~~muso stuff~~~) ID#257148:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
FoxMan
Thank you, squire. Forgive me if my memory is deficient, did you join the chorus in praise of David Grisham or Vassar Clements the other day?


There are many great musicians from all musical histories who hail from merka..I am priveleged to know but a few...

Many other kiwis are music fanatics and know their specialised genres..I have heard foreigners say that our knowledge of music, and musical influences is something unusual. We have, I have been told more than once by a Texan, the best music shop in the World in Auckland REAL GROOVY records ( gimme an extras discount, guys )

Then again, they've never heard me sing...

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:43
goldy88 (ROR your 7h15 post) ID#42039:
Please more information about your comment concerning BMG Calls
strike7,5 jan april.
goldy88@hotmail.com

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:42
aurator () ID#257148:
trism=truism

time to count sheeps

click go the shears, boys.
Click, click click.


where's that lefty kiwi hiding?


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:41
FOX-MAN__A (aurator; Throughout history, the great leaders are not appreciated in their) ID#288186:
own land. They are even rejected! Anyway, glad to meet ya! You, too,
have good music tastes along with da Studio! Go GOLD!!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:39
lakshmi__A (Has the fed tightened?) ID#26350:
Copyright © 1998 lakshmi__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Here's James Grant in the WSJ editorials today: As a matter of fact, the Fed has already tightened by doing nothing in the face of a broad-based decline in market interest rates....Greenspan may presently ease, and this may temporarily reignite the speculative boom. But let the record show that Japanese money market interest rates were 7.5% in 1991, as the Japanese economy began to slip under the waves. Now they are 0.5%...economy still slipping....
Also I hear devalue in two obverse meanings here and abroad. You can say a currency ( the ruble ) is being devalued, but then actually the US dollar is devaluing because it increasingly buys more ( value ) . Would you more correctly then say the ruble is inflating since it buys so little?
I had a friend in Thailand said when the Baht dropped suddently everything become increasingly expensive.
Also RE: Russia--speculations on whether or not they will be able to get their commodities to market? Even if they want to sell or produce a lot of resources, won't the supply side fail due to lack of ability to transport them? Or perhaps the low oil price will make gas balnace in price.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:39
aurator (There's a sucka born every minute((WJC comforts himself with this trism))) ID#257148:
newtron
You been pullin ma tit? ha ha.

roll out Phineas T Barnum

ha ha

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:38
sam__A (@jims (7:12) -- Rate Cut) ID#286284:

If the Fed is saying it _won't_ cut rates, it shows they are under considerable _to_ cut rates. This is also what the long bonds are saying. it is also what common sense dictates.

Real discount rate now around 5% - historically this is very high. To maintain these usurious rates during a period of severe global illiquidity is misguided, to say the least. Drop 'em now or suck ash.

If we have another week like this week, you'll see a rate cut quicker that you can say meltdown averted.

sam__a.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:37
goldy88 (Russia CB only bids to buy gold) ID#42039:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980828/russia_gol_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:33
aurator () ID#257148:
newtron
perhaps you could find John Prine's CD collection:Great Days or Steve Goodman's ( aka chicago Shorty ) I don't know where I'm going, but I'm going nowhere in a hurry, blues. ( Miss ya Steve )

Funny thing, I have met & interviewed several Texas singer/songwriters who all complain they are not known in their own land.


Could it be that we ( downuderds ) ( ( Kool mispelling I'm unwilling to correct ) ) have gained more merkan wisdom from the great singer/songwriter rovers than merkans themselves?

why?


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:30
newtron (Just kidding about the part of being a Stanford PHD ! And, well also the part about being a PHD. ) ID#388209:
But, I'm dead sereious about the other stuff & my brother Jimmy really does hold a PHD degree from that wacky joint in laser physics. He pitched all that & now he's an eye DOC from Duke & Mayos' . Went in duumb, come out dumb too !

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:26
kapex (http://markets.tradingtech.com/Metals/GC/GCLongTerm/GCL/GCL_0.html) ID#275194:
WAVE5 is the password, and TTI is the ID.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:25
Ersel (@ 'ratious etal........) ID#230376:

If'n that url was too long for some try http://www.dbc.com/ and go from there. Out to the froggy, froggy dew........bbml

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:24
kapex (Take a look at what Tom Joeseph was looking for back on June 10th) ID#275194:
in his long term of Gold! http://markets.tradingtech.com/Metals/GC/GCLongTerm/GCL/GCL_0.html
When you get there, in Capital letters password enter WAVE5, then in the box below put in, in capitals again, TTI. he was looking for Gold to bottom at $273 area.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:23
newtron (ROR, I just happen to be a Stanford PHD , but I don't have a job or any money left) ID#388209:
to chase that silly XAU. It does appear for the umpteenth time that a final artificial wash out is under way, but who has any strenghth left to wade in ?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:20
FOX-MAN__A (jims; If we've seen the top in for T-bonds, wouldn't that possibly, just possibly) ID#288186:
be good for Gold? If yields have nowhere to go but UP, from here,
then I'd say there's a good chance Gold is seeing it's turn as well!
But, it's costed dearly to be wrong so far in this investment game.
I'm about tapped out!!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:18
Ersel (@ auratious and all...) ID#230376:

Dec. gold@$278.60......High $281.90......Lo $273.80...Opened @ $279.90 http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/indicators.html?source=dbcc

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:18
Gianni Dioro__A (Dow Wave Count) ID#384350:
-
There is the possibility that the pattern for the past 2 weeks has been wave 4 and not wave ( 5,ABC, I, II ) , yesterday's action being wave 5 which would finish up this morning. The key point IMO is if this thing can hold 8000 and turn around positively which might be difficult with the long weekend coming. The Nikkei held up ( it should have been much worse ) likely due to govt intervention with people's Post Office bank account monies. Thus if the market can hold, we might see an ABC counter rally for a week or two, setting itself up for the major fall.

The market is still in a very precarious position. We could still interpret this thing as being in wave 3 of 3 down ( or I,II, 1 of 3 ) . A drop below 8000 would start the snowball rolling, and normal folk ain't gonna want to be in this market over the weekend. Today should be a struggle.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:15
ROR (BMG) ID#412286:
Jan or April 7.5 calls. When this starts it will be sudden and dramatic..any day now..maybe even today.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:14
aurator () ID#257148:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
FoxMan
Are you the line-man for the county?

I am posting from Auckland, NZ, and that is quite south of you! and half a spin away too. I used to have a radio show, before that just a soapbox, now I have, ahhem, found my voice in cyberspace.....I hope it is not too squeaky ( nor squidgey- thanks to Chuck & Di - ) and I'm grateful for the audience of one..:- )


It is the middle of winter, and we've just had ANOTHER 17 degC ( that's 62F ) day, so back in my short sleeves.

Mind you, it's been p!ssin with rain, but it rains tropically in summer too.


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:13
ROR (Some poster) ID#412286:
Yestergay said if the xau closed below 59.91 he would get a good buy signal. I think it is time to get in. It cant be too long before someone figures out the implications of all these potential defaults. You dont need to be a Stanford Phd.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:13
FOX-MAN__A (STUDIO.R; Yep...That's where I be. And you're just 3 hours South of thee.) ID#288186:
I've seen your posts. Good taste and good music are good for the
heart and soul...

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:12
STUDIO.R (@auratOrious............) ID#119358:
Damn, you sing pretty! I'll check the Blagg/Guthrie disc out. muchas garcias ( cabo spelling ) ....g'dayO! me gotta' go-O! bbl.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:12
jims (Foxman) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I doubt that anything can be made of this volitility. The direction will certainly seem this way then that. We may have seen some extremns about the time European markets got open. Silver got down to 4.66, for example.

The press pretty well has the story distributed that the Russian gold has been on the market in Switzerland and that Australian mines have been selling. STill I son't think we'ver seen the end of any of the downside, though I wouldn't be surprised to look back a couple of months from now and see that we hit the top in bonds this morning and that they along with the dollar started a decline from here.

The metals need something pretty dramatic to turn them around - doubt we'll see any sustained rallies in them for some time and probably only from levels below today's lows which may hold for a while. The selling and panic accross the board seemed to really hit a peak when Europed was opening - those losses have been reduced by half.


Everything will probablly end up about unchanged. The fire workks show has been seen. The Fed's statement that they are holding interest rates where they are removes a light to a reversal in my opinion.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:10
Reify (Thinking out loud again) ID#413109:
Copyright © 1998 Reify/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If a real change in trend is about to develop, as I feel is the case in the gold market, wouldn't
you think that the pros, and the traders, and the market makers and shakers, would first do a
little shaking of the tree, and let the ripe and rotten apples fall, before a major move?

This to mean we've got a large pattern of base building which began in January, and is now
about to reverse, as in the past, about 8 months later. Base building means accumulation by
smart money, and before starting a major move the weaker holders are usually shaken loose
which means to me the breaking of resistance, or new lows in this pattern.

What I'm looking for here and now is the return back into the pattern, 'cause we've had
the drop, we've had the increase in volume, and now, let's say September should start
a pattern of consolidation---- to the upside, no? This followed by a sizable move into, say,
the spring of next year, or approximately 6-7 months into the future. Nice scenario

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:09
newtron (Share, thanks for the post, but when I go in nothing is hot to click !) ID#388209:
Also wich heading has the VIX ?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:07
STUDIO.R (@FOX-MAN.........posting from the land of....) ID#119358:
aeroplanes and Kochs. I abide in what's left of OKC....bombs. droughts. dust. solar bursts....

auratOr@island'o'paradismo

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:02
FOX-MAN__A (STUDIO.R & aurator. It's interesting to learn where people are from. I gather) ID#288186:
that you're both straight South of me. I'm posting from Wichita.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:02
jims (Turn around Friday) ID#252391:
Rush back into big cap stocks to turn AMerican markets around this Friday Rewarding the dipsters would be quite fashionable. So African Golds turning around reducing losses. DISNEY bought all the SGOLY on the cheap.

Looks like Mr. Toad's wild ride coming up.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 07:00
aurator (Freight train, freight train, goin' so fast......) ID#257148:
studs

have you heard that Woodie Guthrie's grandaughter ( ? ) asked Billy Bragg to put some of her grandfather's later lyrics to music? He stopped writing music and performing by 1946 ( I can be corrected ) but continued to write poetry.

There is a new album of never-before-heard songs of Woodie Guthrie, as interpreted by Billy Bragg ( I think ) just released, I intend to buy it tomorrow.


We are all


dustbowl refugees.

eh, crusty?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:57
sharefin (Neutron Bomb) ID#284255:
Try
VIX.X on
http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes

Shows the premium you pay for your put positions.
When it's high you're paying too much.

Not to say it won't go higher.

Statistical average is approx 22 - 24
Currently high 30's

Globex rally of 20 points over such a short period of time shoes big money speaking.
Dirrection is being sought by the big boys.

Success they hope.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:56
FOX-MAN__A (WOW...I got up early to see what's a happenin'....Dec Gold hit a low this) ID#288186:
morning of 273.80! It's now at 278.60 per Globex. Dec silver has
hit a low of 4.80! It's now at 4.83 ( not much better ) . Sept S&P500
hit a low of 1019.60. It's now at 1041.60. Sept T-Bonds hit a high
of 127 22/32. It's now at 126 19/32. /////////////////////////
Is there some serious volatility going on or what!!
I'm open for suggestions...Do we hold the course a little longer
on PM's or get out while the gettin's good?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:53
sam__A (Donald - 6:48 - Venezuala rollover) ID#286284:

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. I thought I had problems.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:52
STUDIO.R (@auratOr.........flatlanders (blank).......?) ID#119358:
If you should ever become weary of being an honorary Texan ( not LIKELY! ) ....I will proudly proclaim you an OKIE....a brother to Woody Guthrie and Will Rogers. At your notice, I will arrange the ceremony at the capitol.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:51
sam__A (Swiss Franc up - wonder why?) ID#286284:

The BOC, to protect the falling loonie, should simply say that it will forthwith purchase all Cdn mine production at London spot + $1. The beleagured loon would jump a nickel in a wink. hey - if it works for the Swiss...

sam__a.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:48
aurator (PMs) ID#257148:
Eddie
Kitco has gold at $275.55 ( your money ) and Silver at $4.78. What you got?

I guess it's time to stock up on 2 & 5 kg Silver door stops?

( just in case there's a shortage on 2/1/00 ( 2 Jan 2000 for the englishly impaired )



Got Door stops?


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:48
Donald (Markets worry over ability of Venezuela to rollover $630 million in T-Bills today.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980827/venezuela__4.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:45
STUDIO.R (@cherOkee.......) ID#119358:
you write right. turn your amp up and cut their heads off. salud@smokemobile!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:45
Caper (Quick Blurp) ID#300202:
CBC News Early MorningBusiness Report-Although Gold is holding fairly well,

there are rumours of producer selling & Central Bank selling

ANOTHER-would you drop a dime on me now? I wanna know.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:43
newtron (Sharefin, would you be so kind as to post a good url for following the VIX today ? Thanks !) ID#388209:


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:43
Ersel (What fools these mortals be.........Puck) ID#230376:

Good day from the chilly Midwest ! The globex shows S&P up 360 ...Yen down 44....somebody is tring to rally the heck out of merkan stuff. PPT? In case no one noticed Gold has been rising all morning ( here ) , with a strong dollar. Does not make sense. Any comments would be appreciated. Mates? JD?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:42
aurator () ID#257148:
Haggis
There is some ugly Sassenach Greenstone Gold tryimg to usurp your handle, as many have tried to usurp your throne before ( I know what you're thinking, any usurper's better than no U surp..ahhh ) but I thought you should know, no?


Greenstone = Jade = Pounamu



Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:38
Delphi (aurator) ID#258142:
Thanks for explanation. In the mean time Europe continue to go up. S&P on GLOBEX +4,6

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:35
STUDIO.R (@T#1.......de nada................) ID#119358:
It is my great privilege to be your friend. Harm shudders at the fearful thought of you....You been dealt strength for a reason. May the gods continue to bless you and me Mumm.

Now....WE ENTER ZONE RED....where turds are turds and gold is gold.

Live Long and Prosper. GO GOLDBUGS!!!!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:35
Donald (Japanese economy contracts 3 quarters in a row; worst since 1955) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980828/japan_grow_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:33
sharefin (Reversal time?) ID#284255:
Everyone expects BC to appear today on TV.
Hence major reversals throughout Europe.

This rally may provide the last chance for cheap puts.
Watch the vix if we do rally.

Swingchart updated:
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Swing.jpg
Looks like a crossover.
Sellers entering the market?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:31
Speed (WSJ recap) ID#29048:
-
August 28, 1998
Gold Prices Reach 19-Year Low On Russia Woes, Japanese Data

By VANYA DRAGOMANOVICH
Dow Jones Newswires

LONDON -- Falling currencies in major gold-producing countries, political
instability in Russia and data showing a sharp drop in Japanese imports
combined to send gold prices tumbling to a 19-year low Thursday.

The spot gold price in London dropped $5 a troy ounce to a low of $277.40 in the afternoon session after selling by producers and hedge funds forced it down through key support at $280, triggering stop-loss sell orders.

The sale was initiated by Australian producers in Asia trading. As the
Australian dollar dropped to US$0.5605, its lowest point since it was floated in 1983, producers sold heavily to take advantage of high prices in local currency terms.

Gold received a further blow when Japan released figures showing its imports so far this year were down 50% year-to-year at 36,500 kilograms.
As European trading kicked in, funds joined the rout, traders said.
There is little to support prices, said Tony Warwick-Ching, an analyst in London for stockbrokerage Robert Fleming & Co. Analysts were reluctant to predict just how far gold could slide but they certainly saw more downside potential.Thursday's slide comes after weeks of lackluster trading in which the gold price has meandered between $282 and $286, seemingly ignoring the political and economic turmoil unfolding around it and undermining its status as a safe haven for investors.

Gold was traditionally a safe haven for investors, said Mr. Warwick-Ching, but the irony of it is that with the currency and equity markets in turmoil, there is a sell-off instead of run into gold.

Russia's crisis remains a big drain on gold-market sentiment. Earlier this week the Zurich gold market was flooded with gold believed to stem from swaps made between the Russian central bank and several Swiss, American and German banks. Premiums for gold deliveries in Zurich, usually at ten cents above the London price, dropped sharply, suggesting oversupply, traders said.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:30
aurator (Darn it Nick@Canaberra--there's bad juju stalking the good guys this moontine) ID#257148:
-
Tennesee's not the state I'm in
Satisfied is not the way I been
I can feel my world turning
as I watch the bottle spin
still, Tennesee's not the state I'm in


Butch Hancock as sung by Joe Ely ( a couple of Texan boys )

Peutz, ( pr Pits )

Okee

so you were one year early. You said hereabouts that you lost money in your wrong call last year. I hope you have money on your position now. Yes. I hope you have the strength of your convictions and put your money where your mouth is: Cos you deserve to reap the fruit of your research...you deserve, Mr Peutz, to make a sh!tload of dollaros this time around.

You have proven yourself to be a man of honour. I salute you.


----
Any good Texans can name the members of The Flatlanders not so much a band as a legend? Only produced one eponymous album.


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:28
Donald (Japanese banks downgraded on stock slump; credit lines under review) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980828/foreigners_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:25
Donald (Malaysian CB Governor and Dep. Gov. resign.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980828/malaysia_c_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:23
Donald (Ukraine in meltdown along with Russia. Stocks at zero, currency fears etc.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980827/ukraine_ec_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:17
Donald (Dollar weak, Swiss Franc at 5 month high; currency news and comment.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980828/dlr_subdue_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:11
aurator (more antipodean humor) ID#257148:
Gollum
Someone tell me again about the BIS buying below 280. Where did that idea come from?

Why, my_@mythical-Rube-GOLDBURG-Pilot_amigo_from_ANOTHER___BTW~~FLAPS__UP~~~~

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:06
Bill2j (@Gollum) ID#259400:
Rest easy my friend, none other than the legendary Another proclaimed the BIS would step in and buy gold for all the world to see when gold and if gold ever hit 280. I can hardly wait for the announcement on CNN.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 06:01
Gollum (Turning point?) ID#43349:
The Hong Kong market has closed. For the nexr couple of hours we are in the hands of the LBMA.

Someone tell me again about the BIS buying below 280. Where did that idea come from?

Yesterday saw some large price drops on low volume. Later there was lots of paper trades pushing gold prices down, but physical buying. It will be interesting seeing what the COMEX totals look like this afternoon.

I've got to go find where the wookie is hiding.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 05:53
Donald (Market crash and deflation; Robert Prechter interview with Fox Business News) ID#26793:
http://www.elliottwave.com/newsroom/cavutointerview.htm

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 05:52
ROR (Silicon Chat Rooms) ID#412286:
CNBC touting how investors on chat rooms view this as a buying opportunity. They should visit KITCO.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 05:51
aurator (bungees and Melbourne the Statue of Liberty and fine wine...and Eureka Stockade ) ID#257148:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Delphi
It's the bungee effect. Did I ever tell you about AJ Hackett, inventor of the bungee trying to sell me his crossbow he tried to use to shoot a line over the Statue of Liberty for a bungee attempt ( after jumping off the Eiffel Tower ) of course he was arrested before he could get the darned thing to his shoulder?

bouncie_bouncie

sharefin
It stands to reason, NZ business has be unregulated and unprotected for 15 years, those that have survived have no illusions at all about the future, truly, we are the Merchant Adventurers of Aotearoa.

I suspect that the protected & bloated economies of merka and stralia are not so nimble. OTOH we have only the population of Melbourne in a country larger than the UK.

I'll be in Melbourne next month, taking Beautiful Jewel to the site of the Eureka Stockade and trying some Victorian White wines too.. Any Melburnians know places I should not miss?

mozel
Perhaps when I return I shall post about the Eureka Stockade, my merkan friends may view antipodean democracy and freedom from the yoke of Victorian Imperial dependancy in a different light. Such freedoms were not given: but fought for.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 05:36
jims (Disney) ID#252391:
Thanks for the SGOLY quote. Putting up the price on me are you. Think you caught it right at the point of panic, here. Silver got down to 4.66 in the selling wave, the DOW went through 8000 on Access all the way to 7900 or something. Just hope SGOLY stays down till NY opens - doubt it will.

HK to do something to make its intervention not necessary - what will that to be. ?


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 05:26
John Disney__A (Oh by the way ..) ID#24135:
to all
Ive seen 4.8 on silver ..
Thats one hurdle cleared.
hope we dont have to clear 4.5

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 05:26
Delphi (Europe) ID#258142:
Looks like recovery is on it's way. FTSE from -5% to -3%, France -1.7% ( was much more ) , Russia only -2.5%

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 05:24
John Disney__A (Sgoly) ID#24135:
jims ..
5800 on offer at $2.3 .. I didnt
ask questions .. I took it ..

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 05:24
sharefin (Aurator) ID#284255:
-
T'is the folly of mankind.

When It can't get better than this
The future projections are rosier then ever.

When one should be truely greatfull for what one has.
One always sees the bright-side and wants more.

The transparency of modern thinking staggers me
Right and left.

It's not a case of when they will learn.
Moreso will they ever learn.

Makes me feel like a grain of sand.
Shining quietly on Mt Manganui beach.

Ahhh such a feeling.

~~~~~~~
Envy
Kudos to you
I agree emphatically.

Too easy to critisise, when one is wrong.
Regardless of efforts applied.

Flaming requires no efforts.
Just a liitle bit of angst.
As we have all seen.

I hope Steve needs a semi-trailor.
I would love to share a drop of amber liquid
With the man.
He deserves much plus more.

Obviously
IMHO

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 05:19
paths () ID#22571:
Copyright © 1998 paths/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
On Cnn The drops are so large, it's not just fundamentals driving this, people are scared, said Robert Allen Feldman, chief economist at Morgan Stanley ( Japan ) Ltd.

Well that may be true for the Japan market, but the dow is so overvalued that that it sounds silly for someone to say that the fundamentals are not driving it. The markets are getting hit and the fundamentals are supporting that move nicely, no? Even the weakness in gold today seems to have some fundamentals involved, although they may be shorter term.

Stock markets in Hong Kong and Singapore also continued their plunge
Thursday. After only 15 minutes of heavy trading, Hong Kong's Hang Seng
Index was down 48.10 points to 7,874.87. There are tremendous selling orders and no one's buying except the government, said Antony Mak, a dealer at the city's Vickers Ballas Holdings Ltd. There is a battle going on.

For two weeks, the Hong Kong government has been propping up the local
stock and stock futures markets in an effort to punish speculators. If the government wins, stocks could move higher Friday, but with world
markets sharply lower, the forces working against that possibility were
intense, analysts said.

like catching a falling piano?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 05:14
John Disney__A (For the future .. read the past ) ID#24135:
for mozel ..
yes Russia is going to be a BIG TURKEY.
My forecast of ruble in 25 years is oh
Id say about 200,000 to the $. BUT
NOT the GOLDEN RUBLE .. if there is one.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 05:03
sharefin (Email chatter) ID#284255:
Just finished watching the news, the DOW just took a 376 point hit
and is still going down, I guess those 20 one ounce silver eagles were a
good investment after all.

P.S anyone know where I can find up to date prices of precious metals on the internet

Peter
~~~~~~~~~

Got Gold, Grub and Guns?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 05:03
Envy (@Sharefin) ID#219363:
More than just about anything, I hope Steve is sitting on more PUTs than he knows what to do with. He took so much abuse here it's not even funny, so I hope he makes out like a BANDIT. It would also be sweet reward for the money he lost last year.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 05:01
paths (Skinny - (mine sales) and cherokee (00:13 ww3 no way)) ID#22571:
Another reason Gold mines can't sell to the public is that their output has to go through a refinery like JM to get to .9999 and weighed into precise quantities. The mine bars are oddball weights and have silver etc mixed in. It would not be cost effective to have a gold refinery set up just for the output of a single mine.

Cherokee WWIII from the link in your 00:13, good grief lots of lapses in critical thinking on that page, can't place much weight on things written like that, I hope.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 05:01
aurator (the merchant adventurers of aotearoa) ID#257148:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

with all this inbound chaos and flux, I think cherokee might be visiting soon in his smokemobile, I'm looking forward to it.

Funny thing, despite the massive drop in Oil per barrel, price at the pump in noo zil hasn't changed....båstard oil companies

Donald
Another manufacturer/assembler of car parts goes into liquidation here, mostly owned by Japanese, but employing NZ'ers who now are added to the unemployment lines.


sharefin
Gold and Deflation mentioned on the Holmes TV current affairs tonite, crisis is inevitable ~~~~~ yet self, business partners and NZ business in general are all highly optimistic on our individual futures we are creating for ourselves, according to recent survey of business confidence released today. We have got light-footed downunder, freed of gobmint interference/subsidies for more than 15 years, many here are humming with anticipation of new markets to conquer...



Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:59
sharefin (Envy - good man) ID#284255:
I have some good friends who are short the SP500 at the moment.
Smiles all round.

Just proves you can't be right all the time.
But once in a while a good move pays off.

I hope Steve has a pocket full of puts.
He deserves it for his work and efforts.

I too should be short.
But my funds went towards my home.

I am not happy I'm not shorter. ( :- ) ) )


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:52
Jack (A stock to keep and eye on) ID#252127:
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Lets assume that gold turns positive, here's a gold stock that you may want to look into--And Keep An Eye On.
No guarantees;
but McWatters Mining ( mcw ) Toronto and montreal is scheduled to produce about 180,000+ ounces this year from its Kiena and Sigma Mines that they picked up from PDG in 97. Their last quarter was profitable.

( Both Kiena and Sigma as stand-alone Mines before PDG took them over carried prices over $30 Canadian, they were good overall mines ) . I feel that they are still good, but thats only my take --- but a good gold price will certainly help.

Now they plan to merge with Minorca. Minorca has about a 32% interest in McWatters, and the way I understand it those shares will now disappear, additionally about $8 million in cash from Minorca's treasury, plus a number of companies will come to McWatters if/when the merger goes thru. One of the items will be Minorca's 15% interest in Dayton Mining. Dayton like most gold miners is presently on the ropes but is slugging it out.

I am not sure, but think that the number of shares for McWatters will increase about 8 million on top of those outstanding.

You can read their news stories and form your own opinions at Yahoo by putting in their symbol, or at http://www.cdn-news.com
then scroll down and follow directions.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:47
Greenstone Gold__A (19 reasons why GOLD has bottomed.......) ID#427265:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/turk082498.html


And I used to think that there were only Ten Commandments?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:45
sharefin (Space Weather Outlook) ID#284255:
SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. A SPORADIC CLASS M FLARE IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION
8307. THE DEVELOPING COMPLEX OF REGIONS 8314/8319 IS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE FREQUENT SMALL FLARES WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER ACTIVITY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:42
sharefin (Silver plumets) ID#284255:
SIU8 hit $4.66 recently.
GCZ8 hit $273.80

SPU8 hit 1019.6

And Europe slip sliding away.

Skiiing downhill

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:42
aurator (Envy) ID#257148:
snowballs and hades, imho

the Golden Great Spike Down...

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:37
Envy (US, Europe) ID#219363:
What are the chances of the markets finding a bottom today ?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:37
Greenstone Gold__A (The reality is...............ALL gold producers are in a BULL GOLD market) ID#427265:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/goldbug082598.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:27
Greenstone Gold__A (Mircosoftly. microsoftly........out the side door.........) ID#427265:
Copyright © 1998 Greenstone Gold__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Related QuotesMSFT
109 1/4
-3 5/16
delayed 20 mins - disclaimerThursday August 27, 6:24 pm Eastern Time

Gates,Allen sold $2 bln Microsoft shares since May

WASHINGTON, Aug 27 ( Reuters ) - Microsoft Corp. ( MSFT - news ) co-founders Bill Gates and Paul Allen have sold well over $2 billion worth of the company's common stock since May and have plans to unload about $111 million more, their recent regulatory filings showed.

Chief executive Gates and two other entities -- Gates Library Foundation and William H. Gates Foundation -- disposed of 11,750,000 shares worth over $1.3 billion from July 28 through Aug. 17.

And Allen dumped 11 million shares valued at almost $1.2 billion from May 22 through Aug. 17.

The co-founders of the Washington State-based software giant also said they planned to sell just over one million shares, or about $111 million worth around Aug. 20. It was not immediately known if the shares were sold.

They disclosed their recent sell-offs in Form 144 filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Companies' executives file the 144 to show intention to sell stock, but are not obliged to do so. They will also sometimes reveal how much stock they have actually sold.

Microsoft has about 2.5 billion common shares outstanding.

Spokespersons for Gates and Allen have said that past sales were a routine part of their diversificatio

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:27
mozel (@Greenstone_Gold) ID#153110:
That ruble-gold plot looks terminal to me. And Turkey looks the same on a different time frame.
I think we know very little of the secret acts of governments around the globe. But if a government can manipulate its own home market with credit, then another government can just as easily secretly invade with fiscal agents to do the same.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:24
Leland (John Crudele's Take on Wall Street's Woes (Linked From Fiend's SuperBear Page_) ID#316193:

http://nypostonline.com/business/5029.htm

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:23
sharefin (Globex) ID#284255:
Just hit 1020

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:23
Hedgehog (Tank Girl, you'd really get off on this.) ID#39857:
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^GDAX&d=5d

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:23
Delphi (Europe is crashing) ID#258142:
now

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:17
HopeFull (AUSSIE GOLD PRODUCERS COVER THEIR HEDGES!!!!!!!!) ID#402148:
Just read over on YAHOO ( Rueters ) .

HB

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:15
sharefin (What's the bet?) ID#284255:
-
That BC is on TV today?
Just as the premium soars 40 odd points.

Spending 3 times as much as yesterday.
Trying to stop this slide.

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Fedbuy.jpg

Truely a political bull market
Dying a lonely death.

Spinmasters galore hard at work.
What can we do, they say as tempers flare,
And they then throw their hands in the air.


I bet they do ....... indeedy so.

Does this mean Kitco will crash again?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:15
Envy (@Sharefin) ID#219363:
Okay, maybe just a few more words - I did listen to Steve to some extent, not just him, but all kinds of different sources. Some people here helped me figure out how to trade PUTs, something I had no experience doing, and I made a trade weeks ago. As fate would have it, I seemed to have had all the right information at the right time, and my PUTs paid off really big today. There are a lot of people here that I have to thank for that, and Steve is certainly one of them.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:14
jims (WOW!! Double WOW!!!) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Man they hit PT and PD - SWC will be at 15. Gold down the toilet. Yes, the bears' perdictions are looking pretty good.

Disney, how's SGOLY looking today - trying to buy that little number for some time now - looks like today I'll get my chance if there is some volumn. HA! probably blow right through me. Shold have taken your advice some time back and held off on Harmony till the 3s were on the tape. What's happening down there the economy coming apart?

Y2K - I don't think we may last that long - this is getting serious.

HK indexes other than the Hang Seng were off 10% - particularly the Red Chips. Like a previous poster can quite fiqure why the authorities have kept on buying unless the selling has been so very intense. Record volumn today, small caps took the biggest hit.

Well, if we wanted to see a panic wash out - looks like we've got the makings of one doming soon to a quote machine near you.

Put on more air sickness bags there Gollumn.

WOW!!!!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:10
sharefin (Seems like Steve was on the ball - bout time.) ID#284255:
Should have listened to him ( :- ) ) )

Puts galore

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:06
sharefin (Gold and Dow in tandem) ID#284255:
If the DOw is bound for 5000?
Where will gold finally lie?

$250 - $200 or even lower.

NASB

Europe tanking hard and still sliding.

Globex now down to 1026

Tank time.




Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 04:04
Greenstone Gold__A (WHO CARES.............wake up Mate........) ID#427265:

Globalisation, free trade...........the ongoing current situation means THE END to all this........

When ALL has failed, do you seriously expect the US$ to be standing HIGH............?

I think not.

Do we all adopt a North American view of the world...God dame it, lets start another war, good for businesss.

Get real.....who cares ?!
http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:57
Envy (Last Words) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Everything is perfectly what it is. Gold is at it's perfect price based on everything that has acted perfectly on it. Silver is perfect, perfectly found where it was perfectly deposited and perfectly dug up when it was the perfect time. The President is going through everything he's going through, perfectly, based on everything that has ever influenced him or affected his course. Russian rubles are doing exactly what they were supposed to do, what they had no choice but to do, in perfect harmony with the Universe. Somewhere in Japan a child is getting to spend more time with her father because he doesn't have a job, and it's perfect. Somewhere a tree isn't being cut down in the forest because a logging company has gone under, in perfect sync with the currency, which has been acted on perfectly by other economies. At some time in the future, Gold will likely go up in value, and it'll be because it's time, because everything is in place, because the right series of events has happened, because it's perfect, and there will be no other choice for it. I hope I see the perfect bottom, and ride to the perfect top, and if I don't, it'll be because things are perfect, and I didn't have the intelligence or experience to see it.

The world is beautiful the way it works - and the more we can see the perfection in it, the patterns, the Tao, the better off we'll be, stripped of the delusions cast at you, enhanced by quiet, peaceful, intuition - it's amazing and wonderful. Tis wisdom, is it not ?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:56
John Disney__A (for info ..) ID#24135:
...
Jse industrials off 10 % Golds OFF
51 points Gommint bonds 21 % ( with
6 % inflation rate ) .. no buyers
only sellers ..
Son says dec Gold bottom is 273 minimum
if breaks then 240.. He has bought
randfontein and O'Okiep copper.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:54
Greenstone Gold__A (Mozel........very intersting observations.......) ID#435212:

It is indeed a sad fact of life that when all end fails, a military option is never far behind.

Do nyou have any specific insight as to WHY the Rubel has turned to Rubble ?

Taking a guess - what derivative transations have gone AWOL?

The near vertical growth in the Ruble gold price is a fearful sight, image if the US$ goes the same way !

Currencies and PM's..........and the EURO

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:52
Spock (Bad news continues) ID#210114:
New York--Aug 27--Nearby gold futures and spot prices took out January
support levels, reaching fresh 19-year lows. Most of the pressure came from
producer selling from Australia, South Africa and Canada as those
currencies continued to crash against the US dollar. Dec gold lost 2.0% in
value. Sep silver sank 2.2% to a fresh 10-month low and platinum 2.0% to a
fresh 2-month low. By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News, Story .2333

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:50
Jack () ID#252127:
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

With many currencies having already fallen off the clift and many others with poor footing, soon to follow; I think; if the fed toys with interest rates, it will be a prayer of hope, a hope that Pavlov's dogs will react as desired.

The so called strong dollar in a field of weaklings is a poor hope for the already devaluated- the great US productivity, if in fact true, will not stand in a world of devaluated currencies.

In a situation where almost every currency has or is about to fail, what can they do?

When Gold, a proven salvation is painted as the villan, a relic, that men plunder for, what will replace it.

The fact that Rubin has been very mum lately indicates that all stops have failed, that neither he or Greenspan have the answer.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:47
Who Cares?__A (Gold Falling, Tempers Rising) ID#242328:

Well, I, too, thought that a deflationary collapse would drive gold
up in a short panic spike, for a brief period of time.

However. Ultimately, what is important is how gold fairs relative
to currencies.

But, it wouldn't surprise me now if Pretcher's scenario plays out,
with gold bottoming around $200.


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:45
Goldbug23 (sam - buying on the way down) ID#432148:
There is an old saw in the markets about not buying on the way down, but buy on the way up. I have not always followed this and have been buying gold on the way down for some time now, as you have. I did the same thing in '73-'74 with a tech stock I liked ( EGG ) and it turned out to be a golden egg ;- ) ( But then, like most people, we only talk about our successes don't we? )

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:44
Spock (Unchartered waters.) ID#210114:
Gold falling like a stone. Any thoughts that its going to rally because of world financial crisis are WRONG.

Buckler thesis of gold rising after Oz dollar price of gold rises no longer holds.

Oz dollar price WAS $500, and gold tanked badly. Now $US 271 and falling. Oz Dolllar price now $485 and falling.

Goldbugs; be afraid. Be very very afraid.

Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:35
Beamer (Polar Bear) ID#260108:
Thanks for your response -- I'm hoping he's wrong about gold too,
but in the OPPOSITE way he was wrong about oil.....

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:35
crazytimes () ID#342376:
Copyright © 1998 crazytimes/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
RJ, If you want to talk about emotional responses, I can post plenty from you. Your festering, unrelenting resentment towards Farfel probably has as much bandwidth as your posts on PM's. I am not defending Farfel for his actions as he made some awful accusations, but don't keep shining the light on him as YOUR shadow is showing. I may get 404'd for this and you're certainly worth more on Kitco for your facts but it is the heart that really matters. I imagine you can't find yours and that's why your facts are so good and havn't lost any money. By the way, is the DOW still going to 10,000 not because you say it is but because it WILL? I'll leave you to play King of the Hill, your favorite game.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:32
Hedgehog (Incoming) ID#39857:
Left field!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:32
mozel (@aurator @sharefin) ID#153110:
I don't actually know for certain.

@sharefin Some perceptions and reasonings are more trustworthy than others, and those I seek. Your observation about the larger enterprises being more likely to be computer dependant is well made and well taken.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:30
tolerant1 (STUDIO_R, NAMASTE) ID#373284:
your gift...the tears rolling off my cheeks...what a gift...crying...and for the Ladies in your LIFE...the creative rapture which is you and your family...my lawn is watered as I as a midget could dream...you SIR are much that I envy...and just so ya know...I beat the snott out of the five Marines and the two clowns from the Naval place I guess they have boats...heh...heh...heh...you and your family...when I fall asleep and dream...if I could only be so much...

SIR...thank you...from the Island that is Long...THANK YOU...

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:28
sam (Goldbug23 ) ID#290287:
I look at it in a different way. I see golden insurance as getting cheaper so I just increased my coverage. If it gets cheaper yet, I'll buy a little more. I think this is a good insurance policy.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:24
Gandalf the White (OOPS) ID#433301:
Looks as if the bottom just dropped out of the Au bucket !
Barts post says DOWN 5.55 at 0323
Look out tomorrow Gollum as the downdrafts are going to be hurrycanes.
GW

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:23
POLARBEAR (Beamer, I wouldn't give too much thought to Armstong's $190 SPEW) ID#183109:
posted on S.I. by Giraffe:
Martin Armstrong in the May 31,1996 issue of Silver and Gold Report,
You're going to see oil most likely reach the $60-$80 range over the next 2 to 3 years...
...Roughly, there's a 64-year cycle in gold, which is due for a peak around 1998.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:22
Who Cares?__A (Europe is opening the red - 2 to 4% down) ID#242328:


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:21
Who Cares?__A (Why is HK Propping The Market?) ID#242328:
Copyright © 1998 Who Cares?__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

HK might be acting just like a rectifier. If they truly believe,
or want to believe, that a market downturn is temporary,
it would only make sense to smooth out the excessive gyrations.

Buy the market as it's falling, sell the market when it's moving
it back up.

It really does make sense in a way. It's just a variation of the
Keynesian theory of borrowing that governments have
folllowed for the past fifty years. It's a logical extension of
the philosophy from debt to equity markets.

That's one reason that I believe AG will succeed one more
time in propping the U.S. In a way, governments around
the world are trying to act as a mondo capacitor, absorbing
holding and regurgittation money in order to smooth variations.




Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:21
mozel (@AKAU) ID#153110:
That article reinforced to me how unlikely a little trader is to make money consistently against those brilliant pros with giant bankrolls. Anyone who does is truly exceptional in my book.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:20
aurator () ID#257148:
lefty kiwi

Has anyone done the maths on the gold/human ratio you enquired about the other day? The same thought has alos occured to me, but perhaps we should exclude those under 15 in the calculations?
Well, most of them, just today I bought a gold name-ring for my new god-daughter, made lovingly by my friend and gold-craftsman extraordinaire, it is so cute, so tiny, to fit on a baby's finger, it has her name etched around it...aaaaahhhhhhhh


Nick@Cantalever
Report please, didja get out?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:18
Goldbug23 (RJ - Tai Chi) ID#432148:
I find about 10 minutes of Tai Chi first thing in a Golden Calif morning gives my day a good start. Takes a bit to learn how to handle it of course, like most things in this world. Your business will be picking up drastically, and soon I suspect.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:14
sharefin (Lacking Money, Russian Firms Do Business in Twilight of Barter) ID#284255:
-
http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB904110397260803500.htm
KOSTROMA, Russia -- Away from the mayhem in Moscow, Igor Sizov, director
of the Kostroma Textile Machinery Design Bureau, has more urgent matters
to worry about: 6,000 pairs of thick woolen socks for the local police
department.

No money will change hands. In the economic twilight zone inhabited by
most Russians, it rarely does. Instead of rubles, Mr. Sizov will get a
reprieve.

The deal is simple. Kostroma's police, among the millions who get paid
late or never, will get warm toes. In return, they will take the heat
off Mr. Sizov's decrepit plant over its unpaid taxes. This is not a
solution, says Mr. Sizov, it is just a way to keep going.

But in which direction? Behind all the sound and fury in Moscow -- where
the ruble, government debt and now the government itself have been cast
to the wind -- lies a fundamental question about Russia: Is this market
capitalism as it emerges from its chrysalis or the survival mechanism of
a system unable to embrace real market forces?

In the saga of the socks lurks the dead soul of Russia's economy. The
deal helps police to patrol the streets, and the Textile Machinery
Design Bureau to stagger on. But, along with countless similar
transactions, it hobbles Russia's clubfooted transition to capitalism.

Mr. Sizov's plant can't sell its products, it can't pay its taxes, it
can't pay its electricity bills, and it often can't pay its workers.
( They, too, get stuck with socks. ) But like tens of thousands of
crumbling Russian enterprises, it has survived, just.

Syndrome X

Protected from the harsh discipline of money and markets, it finds
shelter from bankruptcy in a ruble-free zone of barter, debt and favors.
This sanctuary has saved Russia from mass unemployment, but it has
dulled the promise, along with the pain, of the market.

A government report dissecting Russia's deformed economic anatomy calls
it Syndrome X. The International Monetary Fund refers to it coyly as
Russia's structural agenda. Clifford Gaddy, a Brookings Institution
authority on Russian industry, dubs it the virtual economy.

An official survey of 210 enterprises at the backbone of the economy
estimated that barter, debt-swaps and other nonmonetary deals accounted
for 73% of transactions in 1996 and 1997. The businesses surveyed paid
only 8% of their taxes with real -- what Russians call live -- money.

An announcement Wednesday by the central bank that it would curtail
support for the rapidly dropping ruble will add another layer of
unreality. The withering of Russia's currency, while making it easier
for companies to pay off their bills and debts, is likely to further
entrench barter.

For this surreal system to survive, however, every link in the chain
must hold firm. In Moscow, markets and the government buckled under the
strain. And in Kostroma, too, the chain is badly fatigued; city hall
went dark for several days this summer. Across Russia, a showdown looms.
The outcome will decide whether taxes, bills and wages get paid and
whether the discipline of live money takes hold.

Debt Disease

Until last week, foreign investors stood aloof from such woes. The
markets were tumbling, but the causes seemed to lie elsewhere. Today,
investors have been sucked into the virtual economy. They, too, might
not get much more than socks. Last Friday, Sergei Kiriyenko, then prime
minister, told parliament: We are getting rid of a disease. It is
called the habit of living in debt. Two days later, President Boris
Yeltsin got rid of Mr. Kiriyenko.

The disease has spread to every vital organ, from the central government
in Moscow to factories across the country. All live in debt. Workers are
owed more than $11 billion in unpaid wages -- equal to what the IMF
pledged in new loans to Russia for the entire year. The electricity
network, RAO Unified Energy Systems, or UES, owes the government at
least five billion to six billion rubles but says it is owed twice this
by deadbeat customers. RAO Gazprom, Russia's natural-gas monopoly, owes
12 billion rubles in back taxes but says it is owed 13 billion itself.

The blood of industry is cash, says Yuri Filippov, head of the
Kostroma region's industry department. There is not blood in our
veins. Without money there are no real prices; without prices there can
be no effective market.

Kostroma, 200 miles northeast of Moscow, has a peculiar relationship
with cash. Five years ago, when the government canceled all Soviet-era
money, it chose the region as the graveyard for notes bearing Lenin's
portrait. A cavalcade of trucks lumbered through the city, carrying
coffins of cash to a ballistic-missile base outside town. Billions of
old rubles now sit rotting at the bottom of unused silos.

The region's Communist-backed governor, Viktor Shershunov, declares the
cash-clogged missile silos an environmental danger and laments the
irony: The place is jammed with useless rubles even as our biggest
headache is getting money. He hasn't had his power cut off yet but has
taken precautions. We have a stock of candles ready, he says.

The problem for Kostroma, and the country as a whole, is that while the
currency of Lenin's realm has been buried, the economic system it oiled
still rumbles on. Factories have been put in private hands, but not into
a real market.

Lights Out

In the main workshop of Mr. Sizov's plant, a handful of men hammer
chunks of metal in semidarkness. The lights are off to save money.
Unable to sell the machine technology it was set up to develop for the
Soviet Union, the plant now makes primitive spare parts, mostly nuts,
bolts and washers. Payment for them clogs corridors and offices: plastic
bags stuffed with wool from a textile mill in Uzbekistan; heaps of
blankets from a Moscow manufacturer; a mountain of tablecloths and heaps
of flax from a linen combine.

The flight from money began as a rational response to hyperinflation.
Back in 1992, it made sense to accept solid goods, not withering rubles.
But the habit became a crippling addiction.

Now, Russia's newly reinstated prime minister, Viktor Chernomyrdin,
faces a critical decision: Feed the addiction or force cold turkey. His
past makes the former more likely. As prime minister from 1992 until
March, he nurtured the debt habit. Earlier, he ran Gazprom, the biggest
pusher of economic painkillers.

Last year, Gazprom's Russian customers paid only 15% of their bills with
cash, covering the rest with IOUs and barter. Gazprom, in turn, begged
off paying taxes. Moscow has tried this year to halt the cycle. It told
all companies to pay federal taxes with money. From Moscow to Magadan in
the East, the virtual economy shuddered. And, in Kostroma, the lights
went out in city hall.

A Revolutionary Idea

Gazprom's domestic gas supplier, Mezhregiongaz, had passed the pressure
to pay on to its local customers. In Kostroma, this meant
KostromaEnergo, a branch of the UES electricity network. It acknowledged
owing 173 million rubles for gas but said it couldn't pay until it got
paid itself -- by Mr. Sizov, by the police, by bureaucrats and by other
customers.

Mezhregiongaz refused to budge. In May, it turned off the power
company's gas. The power company got some fuel from a neighboring region
that owed it a debt, but when that ran out it pulled the plug on city
apparatchiks. I warned them, says its director, Yuri Nazarov. It was
very simple: Pay up or we'll cut off your power.

Simple, but also revolutionary. I've worked in this business for 37
years, and this is the first time anything like this has happened, he
says, waving sheaves of paper listing his deadbeat customers. So novel
is the notion of mandatory payment that the main power station last year
raised output by 46%, while consumers paid only 1.8% of their bills with
money.

At city hall, the lights went off, computers crashed and bureaucrats
scurried to the canteen, the only room left with power. The mayor, Boris
Korobov, rushed back from a trip and sent an SOS to the military.
Russia's strategic rocket forces came to the rescue: The local commander
provided an emergency generator. Nobody likes this mess, the mayor
says. This is not the market. It is the Middle Ages.

After three days, the power came back on. Municipal authorities agreed
to pay up in part. Gas and electricity companies reshuffled the pack of
unpaid invoices. Gas supplies resumed. But while the blackout has left
much bitterness, it solved nothing. The spiral of debts and counterdebts
has begun again.

Blanket Exemption

This Monday, KostromaEnergo struck a deal with Mr. Sizov's
textile-machinery plant for 50,000 rubles' worth of electricity. We
didn't have to pay a single kopeck, said Alexander Dobrokhodov, the
plant's deputy director. In return for power, the factory is giving 400
woolen blankets to a camp for handicapped children. Their value will be
deducted from KostromaEnergo's local taxes, just as the socks for the
local police will wipe out part of the machinery plant's own municipal
tax bill.

And why does Mr. Sizov have blankets? He got them from a Moscow factory,
in return for deliveries of wool, which he earlier got from a textile
factory in Uzbekistan in return for equipment.

Meanwhile, the Kostromskie Vedomosty newspaper has just sold off the
last of hundreds of linen sheets and pillowcases that for months
cluttered its offices. It got them in return for money it had on deposit
with a bank that closed after one of Mr. Sizov's old customers, the Big
Linen Manufacturer, failed to repay a loan.

Under the socks and blankets hides both the tenacity and decrepitude of
the past. The Kostroma Textile Machinery Design Bureau was once a flower
of Soviet industry. It never had to look for customers: They were
assigned. Today, nobody is interested in buying my equipment, Mr.
Sizov says. All my customers are in a deep crisis. Their products
cannot compete.

Slow Decay

In a market economy, they and he would be out of business. A new
bankruptcy law will encourage that, but only a tiny fraction of the
estimated 800,000 technically bankrupt companies are expected to file.
And even those that do rarely close. For some, the new law allows up to
10 years in court-administered limbo.

More important is political will: Can government embrace a discipline
that throws millions out of work and into cold darkness? More likely is
slow-motion decay. Mr. Sizov has slashed his work force to less than 100
from 260 and evacuated all but the lower three floors of a seven-story
building, to save on heat and power. ( He rents the third floor to
homeless soldiers. )

Production has shriveled to a few rudimentary parts and the odd
lightweight weaving machine. The plant's only new product is socks --
made on equipment it can't sell, from the wool it gets from customers
without cash.

Now that the federal government wants its taxes paid in money, Mr. Sizov
has turned one of his offices into a cash-only emporium of barter
flotsam. The system is very difficult for people like me, says the
58-year-old engineer.

Barter Broker

It is less so for people like Vladimir Zelentsov, a 39-year-old maestro
of the barter system. Dressed in a black-denim jacket and jeans, wearing
a chunky gold ring, he crisscrosses the country stitching together
deals.

Recently he was in Kostroma to see an old friend, the director of a
linen mill whose workers haven't been paid for two months. It has been
closed for an extended summer break, though the director does have one
achievement he is proud of: He recruited a 6-foot model from the local
fashion school as secretary. She was top of her class, he says.

Together, the director, 38-year-old Yevgeny Shibanov, and Mr. Zelentsov
play the barter game, shuffling IOUs, electricity allowances and goods
from one end of the country to the other. Chemicals for the linen mill
come from a factory in Chuvash region at the end of a long chain, while
part of its electricity comes courtesy of a nuclear power station in
Kursk that owed money to KostromaEnergo -- and needed linen to complete
its own elaborate barter sequence. ( KostromaEnergo, meanwhile, has three
tractors and tons of Siberian lumber that it got in lieu of live money. )

Americans won't understand this, says Kostroma's mayor, Mr. Korobov.
You have to have gone through the university of our market economy to
understand what is going on.

The head of the region's industry department, Mr. Filippov, thinks
someone should write a book on the bizarre and perilous system. It will
be more interesting than a horror film, he says.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Y2K no problem for cars
http://x5.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=336989374&CONTEXT=900286514.33030303&hitnum=1
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
More chaos?
http://www.cnn.com/TECH/space/9808/27/solar.flare.reut/
Solar eruption causes geomagnetic storm on Earth

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Solar winds blowing at more than a million miles per hour hit the Earth's magnetic field on Wednesday, sparking what U.S. government scientists say could be a significant geomagnetic storm.

The U.S. Geological Survey said charged particles from a solar eruption hit the Earth's magnetic field around 3 a.m. EDT ( 0700 GMT ) and the resulting fluctuations in the field could cause power outages, satellite failures, disruption in communications and the aurora borealis.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Is this what is upsetting the happy punters.
Lunar - solar - lunar eclipses go hand in hane.

The sun is lending its muscle to this one.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:14
aurator (By the Right!....Quick! Copy!.......) ID#257148:
mozel

Do you know the legal status of these copyright messages in the US? I really have no idea whether there is a valid copyright possible here at kitco in cyberspace?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:11
Envy (@EJ) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
That was really interesting, thanks for posting it.

I'm not afraid of the market going down, even crashing - same goes for the dollar, I just want to be in the right place ( position ) when it all happens. That's what I find so bizarre about the Hong Kong thing - whether they are keeping the market up directly, or trying to burn the speculators ( and thus keep the market up indirectly ) , what's the use ? It's just stupid, it's not like you can stop what's going on or something, it's a big joke. Why not just let it happen, even help it happen if you must, and work the problem ? This pig ain't gonna fly until everything is in place for it to go back up, and there isn't a bit of foolin with the gauges that's going to make it any different. The world is simply going to slow down for a while, it's in the cards, it ain't anybodies fault - sure, somebody will take the blame for being the catalyst, but it ain't anybodies fault. It isn't the Japanesse bankers fault, it isn't the Japanesse governments fault, it isn't the Russian's fault, it isn't oil's fault, and it isn't the President's fault. It just is. I just think it's funny they'd try to get in nature's way.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:06
AKAU (@ mozel) ID#256217:
FWIW - I noticed the article I forwarded dealt with intraday trading. If you noticed today - the indicator using the five-minute tick on S&P/Dow gave a perfect buy signal at the 11:45 low and then a 9 count reversal at the 1:20 test of resistance ( 1056/8316 ) . Final sell off is still incomplete - looks like down the first hour then will give a buy signal. I admit it doesn't always work this well but it can provide windows for trend changes.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:06
Goldbug23 (sam (A Golden Twinkle)) ID#432148:
Great bit of humor when many of us need it in view of what the gold ( and other ) markets are doing to us. And to think I bot those gold stocks as insurance. Well, in due course I still belive they may serve that purpose. But why does the cost of that insurance keep going up? When history and logic would seem to say this is a time when gold should be doing the reverse of equity markets. All in good time as our ole friend Ed Hart used to say, we trust. Ingotwetrust that is ;- )

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:04
mozel (@Envy) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
In the exploit of Jay Gould in manipulating the US gold price with greenbacks after the War of Northern Aggression lies the model for every panic and depression since. It is impossible not to have manipulation when credit has purchasing power on a par with gold money. It is inevitable that governments mimic private manipulators like Gould. The temptation to power is too great for men in government to resist. For men in socialist government manipulation of a market with credit has not even a barrier of scruple to cross.

It is an axiom of the common law writ down in days of yore when men were wiser and better than today that No man is wiser than the Law. But, being wiser than God who gave us the Law referenced in the axiom is the boast of modern man and of his fiat credit based commerce. The mills of the laws of nature and of nature's God grind slowly, but exceeding fine. Not a perspective for short term trades. But, perhaps we are near the end of a long time.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:04
sharefin (Mozel) ID#284255:
Copyright © 1998 sharefin/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Yes, yes, yes.
There are definately two dimensions.

Just like 20% of farms produce 80% of the crops.
And the bigger the farm the more it relies on computers.
Or something like that.
So 80% of crops are reliant on PC's.
etc
One could go on and on.

Whatever the stats,
It is plain and obvious that much is intertwined.
Interconnected to such a degree,
And on a global scale.
Much relies on the completeness of the systems in place.
Break the weak link and the chain gives way.

Figures can be manipulated so well.
Perception is in the eyes of the viewer.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:02
EJ (Envy & All) ID#229207:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A government that attempts to support a market is on a fool's mission. The market will win out in the end.

I've been this week so far in NYC, Austin, San Jose, Denver, and Chicago. The mood everywhere is somber, no place more than in the Red Carpet Club in the Denver airport this pm, where a disproportionate number of stock market affectianados were pounding martinis like they were putting out a fire. No one thinks the thing is going to go back up. Everyone can see the torrid, inexorable meltdown.

Damned if the one really good deal I have cooking this quarter for a few million bucks isn't with Brazil. My luck I find a good company to partner with and their country's economy collapses.

The scene is ugly. No joking matter. The machine is completely haywire, heading out of control. We're all passengers, even governments cannot influence the progression toward global debt liquidation.

Will gold go up? In a manner of speaking. The dollar -- the world's reserve currency -- will crash. When it does, governments and individuals will rush to gold in the ensuing chaos.

This will not be fun. Political change will accompany this economic turmoil to change the face of the earth. It shall never be the same. It will not be so good as it was. No silver lining.

Good Night.

-EJ

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 03:01
RJ (..... Swab Them Decks Sailor .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Salty -

I can see the picture in my mind
Did some of that poop deck practicing
On the week long cruise I was on in June
The folks thereabouts looked at me like I was a maniac
And tended to keep their distance.
In 20 years of practice, I have only had to use them once
And then only because the guy started punching me
Through my open car window
He thought I was fooling around with his wife
Home boy don’t play that, but my innocent protestations
Fell on angry and hurt ears, so he punched me
I only whacked his arms a couple times
Just to make him stop hitting me
Funny thing is, I don’t even view them as a weapon anymore
More like your Tai Chi, and an excellent and meditative workout

Get off thine chair and Chi that Tai

But get a quick pint at the pub first

( Loosens up the muscles, or so I’m told )


JD -

Fumpy must indeedy be
Zee sun of zilly persones
Ees mootherer was a hamstear,
Ond ees fazzer smelt of elderberrees
( How is that? OK? )

OK

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:59
Envy (@Sam) ID#219363:
Re-worded, Youth is wasted on the young. But at least now there's Viagra.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:57
Envy (HK) ID#219363:
Wombat: I like hearing that, I mean, at least that puts a sane ( albeit mis-guided ) motive behind the whole thing, that's better that just being weird and bizarre with no rhyme or reason. I was just having trouble figuring out what the hell the rhyme could have been. *grin*. Seems like it'll back fire in a lot of different ways - There can be no gain but that there is an equal loss, re-worded, junk always comes back on ya.

Tolerant: Re: Sweet dreams, thanks, I could use some sweet dreams tonite.

Aurator: Re: Delusion - and much much more.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:56
Beamer (Armstrong) ID#260108:
Any opinions on Martin Armstrong's forecast of $190 gold/ $2.50
silver - it's not looking good tonight......

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:55
aurator () ID#257148:
wombat
did you hear the story that the aussie gobmint entered the forex market to support the currency?

Do ya follow the footie? After 4 losses in a row, will the All Blacks win on Saturday? I gotta NZ silver dollar say YES.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:53
sam (a golden twinkle) ID#290287:
Copyright © 1998 sam/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Life is tough. It takes up a lot of your time, all your weekends, and what do you get in the end? I think that the life cycle is all backwards. You should die first-get it out of the way. Then you live for twenty years in an old-age home. You get kicked out when you're too young. You get a gold watch; you go to work. You work for forty years until you're young enough to enjoy your retirement. You go to college. You party until you're ready for high school. Then you go to grade school. You become a little kid. You play. You have no responsibilities. You become a little baby, you go back to the womb. You spend your last nine months floating. And then you finish up as a twinkle in somebody's eye.
-- Anonymous

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:50
tolerant1 (Love to you ALL...) ID#373284:
Love...good evening or morning...Sweet dreams no matter what time of day it is...each and every one of you...like trees I have never seen...leaves which are you falling to the earth, and me...my love wants to be your cushion...my wealth is your eyes...when children smile...

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:50
wombat (Envy) ID#23941:
The HK Government will be trying to keep the market up until the end of today ( settlement date for future contracts ) . The government decieded last week to try and hit the speculators ( shorting the Hang Seng ) where it hurt by driving the market up.

I think this will backfire on them next week if and when they stop supporting the market ( 10-20% drop will result ) .

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:46
John Disney__A (WEEEEE) ID#24135:
Rand opens 6.76 .. Gold price 1882
rands per oz.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:46
aurator (HK) ID#257148:
Envy
Extraordinary Popular Delusions?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:42
Envy (Hong Kong) ID#219363:
Maybe they just don't have any idea what they're doing, I guess that's possible - scary, but possible. Like I said before, to me it's just like busting out the glass on the gas gauge, pushing the needle up with your finger, and actually thinking that's going to help get you to the gas station. Just freaky. Kinda funny even if you think about it.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:38
John Disney__A (French Knights are Cool) ID#24135:
RJ
Good .. my comment was made with good intentions..
I used to rise to his idiot verbiage bait .. but
realized I was wasting my time .. anything is preferable
to acknowledging the existence of frump.
Perhaps .. if you must .. give him the dreaded
response of the French Knights to the forces of Monty
Python ..
Ah f@rt een yoare zhenerale direcsion..

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:34
aurator () ID#257148:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Limey
You triggered a memory, on a boat in Indonesia between Java and Sumatra, a red-tinged golden dawn. A crew-member on the poop-deck practicing his nanchuka~ beautiful and dangerous, part inducement for my decade long practice of T'ai Chi, now lapsed as I vegetate@kitco

Envy
it is the temporary victory of enthusiasm/panic/naivete over history.

To run onto the tracks in front of a speeding train to save a currency may be valiant, but it will ultimately be proved to be merely stupid.

I also heard that the Stralian government also started to intervene with the Aus$, hope they bought Nick@Cranberry's gold stocks too.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:34
clktech__A (@Envy) ID#338111:
RE Hong Kong intervention - maybe it's because the communist government can't decide if it's in the business of business - or government. From a free market perspective, their actions are so danagerous. When they run out of money, and they will, the HK market will tank.

I agree with you, it makes no sense. No government intervention in the financial markets of late has made any sense. And we will all pay dearly for it.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:30
John Disney__A (South will Rise Again) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
For Gianni D'oro
Correctomundo .. I think it is altogether possible
that the only gold mines left operating five years
from now may be in the southern hemisphere .. the
NA mines can operate for a few years due to fako cash
costs but cannot generate money for capex to find
new reserves .. Gold could be at 200 and the Sprinboks
and Aussies rocking along with their currency half
what is now.
Mozel's last post on the dollar is at the heart of
things .. US power and prosperity is PARTLY due to
its lead in computer and military technology.. BUT
MAINLY due to being able to produce the wealth it
desires by printing it. The dollar is desired everywhere
and IS everywhere .. from Russia to the Congo.. But
suppose people tire of it and substitute something
ease woops . things will change.
Another weakness of the USA lies in their military.
The cruise strike involves no risk of loss of US life.
The US cannot take losses. If the enemy has suicide
troops and YOUR army cannot afford to take losses then
I think you have a problem.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:29
Envy (Hong Kong) ID#219363:
Or is it that the goal is to have state control over private business ?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:25
Envy (Hong Kong) ID#219363:
What on earth could the government of Hong Kong hope to gain by buying into the market to keep it up ? I just don't get it. It's so bizarre, it's like, beyond the realm of reason or something. I mean, so now what - the government of Hong Kong has tons of shares in XYZ corporation of HK, what are they going to do with the shares ? Or are they not buying shares ? If not, how the hell are they manipulating the market ? So strange.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:23
RJ (..... JD .....) ID#411259:

I think I will heed your words this time around

Indeedy so

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:22
tolerant1 (just arrrived home..the light in MY Mumms hallway was out....they will tell you,) ID#373284:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
those that have heard my pipes, five who claimed to be Marines and two from the Navel Academy...I walked into the dark after telling out my name MY not wanting to harm anyone...broken shoulder nose and the rest of me...in Me Mumm's hallway...let's just say it was not a fair fight...IN ME MUMM's hallway....HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM...I did ask them to forgive me and they were polite...ME MUMM's hallway...this is me Mumm....I guess they did not realize I could smell them,...MY MOTHER's hallway...anything that might cause Me Mumm harm...has to go meet it's God...drunk, home and HAPPY...anyway if you can read this...I send MY LOVE to YOU and YOURS and I AM DARN PROUD TO BE AMERICAN...


I will not make an excuse for being an AMERICAN...nope...WE love YOU our government SUCKS...all that is AMERICA...sends LOVE...this then is the TRUTH...

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:14
Envy (Hong Kong) ID#219363:
Found out why the Hong Kong graph looks so bizarre. In this article, written after the market opened, they say that basically the government in Hong Kong is buying the market all to hell and back. Weird. That's why the chart looks like a heart-beat.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980827/hk_stocks__4.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:13
Squirrel (Thanks Bart) ID#280214:
If the server is down for long
there could be a lot of very inebriated Kitcoites.
We may not have the ability to typ tw0 werds rite - hic!...

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:10
John Disney__A (The moslem situation) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
RSA Moslems ..
BBC last night carried a brief story about the
danger of RSA moslems and the rise of PAGAD ( which
sounds scary but means people against gangsterism
and drugs ) ..
1. These are not BLACK moslems .. Blacks are
exclusively Christian .. In 10 years here Ive
never seen a Black moslem.
2. These are not middle easterm moslems .. few if
any palestinians iraqis etc. They dont have a direct
axe to grind with Israel and USA over land etc etc.
3. These are moslems that originated in Malaysia
and Java. They were brought here during the days
of the British East Indian Company .. They inhabit
the Cape. They generally run businesses and are
craftsmem. Every tailor in Capetowm is a Moslem.
The Indians that the Brits brought over were to
farm sugar cane and live in Natal.
4. The womem look great.
5. They say they caught 3 guys at the airport
as suspects.. a tipoff .. thats how crime works
in RSA .. its the reward/tipoff system
6. The argument of PAGAD is with the coloured ..
who deal drugs ..However..
7. Found out last night that drugs in Capetown
( ecstasy, crack, etc ) are NOW controlled by Moroccan
immigrants ( Nigerians control Joberg ) . THEY are
MOSLEMS TOO.. So things are getting more complex.


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 02:06
RJ (..... Nighty Night and Righty Right .....) ID#411259:

Seems the conversation is tending
Towards the lowest common denominators
I will leave them to themselves as I take zero offense
Some even complain about the way I write things
Which is vastly different than how I speak
Seems another emotional response

I don't like the way you say things
Doesn't matter that you are right
Don't confuse me with the facts
I've made up my mind.

OK

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 01:56
HepMeMoney_Hmm (RJ) ID#404124:

Bite It!!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 01:53
mozel (@Dimensions of Trading) ID#153110:
It may happen that by a combination of covert attacks, cyber attacks, cruise missle attacks, propaganda attacks, and derivatives attacks the $ masters will subject all nations to their fiat credit utopian socialist empire and enslave the world to work for military scrip after the fashion of the American people.

On the other hand, it may happen that the nations of the world will resist being enslaved. To do so they must seek support from the ancient staff of sovereignty. The hinge of our fate in this issue is cast of gold.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 01:47
RJ (..... From a different perspective .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved


I studied martial arts when I was younger and developed a passion for the nuchakus ( Noonchucks or, to really confused folks: Numchucks ) . Most surly know what these are, but for the uninitiated, I will briefly explain.

In feudal Asia of old, peasants were not allowed to carry weapons of steel. To compensate for this, and to defend themselves and family, these peasants adapted various wooden farm implements into weapons. The nuchakus are two pieces of heavy ( often octagonally shaped ) wooden dowels about a foot long each, connected by a rope or chain, ideally the length of which should be slightly narrower than the width of your hand. These were used to flay wheat to separate the chaff.

This is a fearsome weapon that can easily crush bones and flesh. One grabs one dowl and swings the other in various arcs and jabs. The free flying stick moves at tremendous speeds and even a mild impact can be very painful.

All this to say: I use to teach some of my friends in the army how to use the nuchakus. They would want to get one of those foam rubber coated practice kinds rather than a good ebony or ironwood nuchakus. The reasoning is obvious, if you slip and whack yourself on the back of the head, the rubber coated sticks do little damage. I tried to explain that this would actually lengthen their time for mastering the swift sticks, and instill downright dangerous habits.

I explained that a good heavy set of nuchakus is a self teaching device; if you make a mistake, you know about it immediately and bumps tends to rise on the head. Knuckles can get bloody when new at this and the whole thing seems to not be worth the effort for the pain endured. The key is that if you whack yourself a couple of times, your body tells you to not swing the stick in that particular arch again. The learning curve in greatly reduced. When one uses a practice pair, he may hit the beck of his head with no more than a wince. This is not good. When they move to the real thing, the first time they bash their head, they will knock themselves out cold.

They haven’t learned by their actions, because their actions had no consequences.
Those who learned on the real thing, don’t hit themselves, they have learned by experience.


I guess what I am trying to say is this:

Why do some people keep smacking the backs of their skulls with this devotion to gold? It is what it is. It has no magic, it is inert. These markets are truly self teaching.

If what you have been doing has not worked, why keep doing it?

If you do the same thing over and over, why would you expect different results?

I was one of the most bearish voices on this forum for more than a year. I like gold here, and I am buying. I may be a bit early, I may not, but the market dictates what I do, not whatever emotion is tugging at my sleeve. I still occasionally whack the back of my head, or maybe catch an elbow, but after years of practice, this is the rarer occurrence.

If it was wrong yesterday, it is probably still wrong today.

OK

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 01:38
mozel (@sharefin @linear fallacy) ID#153110:
It seems in many production situations that 20% of total this provides 89% of total that. It's a saw that 20% of accounts provide 80% of sales. So, I have to wonder if it is not a linear fallacy to suppose that 60% of wells produce 60% of output. It is almost a certainty that 20% of the electric utilities in North America produce 80% of the watts.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 01:36
Gianni Dioro__A (@Disney, RSA Gold Shares) ID#384350:
-
I don't know if you saw Fin. Times comments on RSA Gold shares yesterday, but they thought the situation looked favourable in relation to a high Gold price in Rands.

I ask you, won't these companies ultimately have to refinance at much higher rates, such that the long-term benefits are not as significant?

To all, I remember back in 1987 people said the cost of production for Oil was around $18 per barrel. So people were saying that oil wouldn't stay below this level for long. Short-term they were right. Long-term, the cost of production went a lot lower. We should see something similar with Gold, as mining costs in RSA, OZ, Canada, etc become cheaper in US Dollar terms.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 01:36
Goldteck (Mexicans scrape by on shrinking wages) ID#431200:
Copyright © 1998 Goldteck/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thursday August 27, 7:20 pm Eastern Time
By Rene Villegas MEXICO CITY, Aug 27 ( Reuters ) - With the peso shrinking by the day and inflation creeping higher, millions of Mexicans are asking themselves how they will make ends meet on $171 a month.
``You want to know how we do it?'' said Baltazar Ruiz, a doorman in a middle-class Mexico City building, with a wife and three children. ``We manage by living in complete poverty.''
Ruiz earns 1.5 times the minimum wage per month, equal to about $137 at current exchange rates, for 10-hour days and six-day weeks. His wife earns about $50 a month washing clothes.
``We earn enough to live like dogs,'' he said. ``You should tell that to our leaders.''
Ruiz is one of almost 12 million Mexicans who earn slightly above the minimum wage, and over half the country's economically active population of 37 million earn a maximum of twice the minimum wage, or $171 a month, according to a recent congressional study.
The minimum wage in Mexico, on average, is $2.35 a day, or $85.50 a month.
Mexican unions estimate that some 50 million of the country's 93 million citizens live in poverty, with half of those in extreme poverty, numbers expanded by the economic crisis and deep recession that followed the December 1994 peso devaluation.
A Senate study showed that the minimum wage's purchasing power has fallen 76.4 percent between 1976 and July of this year.
The wage in dollar terms is shrinking daily along with the peso, which has been ravaged in past weeks as investors have fled Mexico and other emerging markets amid economic turmoil from Asia to Russia. On Thursday the peso fell to a record low of 9.99 to the dollar in the local foreign exchange market.
Most economists are forecasting that inflation, fueled by the falling peso, will easily exceed the central bank's 12 percent target for the year.
Joel Lopez, president of the Labor Congress ( CT ) , a pro-government union confederation, said the country's wages are at the point where they have become a ``national security'' issue.
``We should be ashamed when we talk about minimum wages,'' Lopez said in an interview.
A recent internal CT report said that poverty was increasing in Mexico at an ``accelerated and dangerous'' pace.
``We are facing the eventual explosion of this social time bomb,'' the report said.
Labor leaders cite a series of pacts implemented in 1987 between government, business and labor that sought to control inflation through wage and price controls as partially responsible for minimum wage dilemma.
``Wages fell behind and they've never recovered,'' Lopez said.
Meanwhile, in the widening gulf between Mexico's rich and poor, the wealthiest 10 percent of the population account for 41 percent of national income, according to government statistics.
Lopez said the CT was calling for President Ernesto Zedillo to ratchet up the minimum wage each month to compensate for inflation.
The government's policy has been to grant wage increases in line with annual inflation goals. But this year economists expect inflation to be closer to 15 percent than to the 12 percent central bank target.
Even inflation-indexed salaries would not make up for Mexican workers' lost purchasing power, Lopez said.
``There could be 10 minimum wage increases but that still would not be enough,'' he said.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 01:33
crazytimes (@ RJ) ID#342376:
I lied. I need to say one more thing. I appreciate your expertise, it is the manner of its presentation that I dislike. To me, it comes across as arrogant. Arrogance is what will take this strongest economy down too. That is my prediction.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 01:29
sharefin (Oils ain't oils.) ID#284255:
-
Ok, let's say that through some miracle every last Y2K
bug in the US is fixed. . . Every embedded controller,
every OS, every application in every industry, government
branch, department of defense and so on. . We're safe right?

Or not. . We already know that there are many governments
such as most of Asia, Russia, Germany and others ( what about
South America ) , who either are way way behind, or refuse to
admit that there are any problems at all. Same goes for
a lot of businesses in these countries. What's happening in
the middle east with Y2K work? Refineries? Oil wells?

Seems to me that even if we ( the US ) got its act together and
pulled it off, we still could have major problems. What if
40% of the oil coming out of the middle east stopped? What
if 10% of the communications satellites stopped? What if 20%
of the power generation in all those countries stopped? Seems
to me that given the current state of the global economy, we
could have a ***MAJOR*** depression, even though we were 100% Y2K
ready over here.

Just a side note. I was taking a class out of state a week ago.
One person in that class works for a major oil company. That
company drills wells ( land/sea ) and gets the oil out of the
ground into pumping stations. At that point the oil is sold
and isn't their problem any more. This company is one of the
largest companies of it's kind in that state, and it's a big
oil producing state. This person is one of their Y2K coordinators.
Their evaluation? They are prioritizing their wells/pumps/systems
for Y2K remediation. At best they expect to get 60%-70% fixed by
1/1/00. The rest will have to be shut down since the risk
of environmental disaster, and equipment damage is too great.

So if ***EVERY*** oil producer is in a similar state, world oil
production could be cut by 40+%. . Industry runs on oil and
electricity. . If fuel cost double or triple, guess what happens
to the cost of good manufactured, or airplane tickets. Major
inflation on top of economic crisis. . .

Anyway, just my 37.5 cents . .

Bill Vojak

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 01:29
Bart Kitner (Kitco) (Technical Glitch Procedures) ID#259253:
Copyright © 1998 Bart Kitner (Kitco)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Do not adjust your monitors. There are no posts for the afternoon of Aug 27 because of computer failure. Here's what you can do next time you have problems accessing our group to get it back up a lot sooner.

If this happens:

You are trying and trying and trying to connect until after a few minutes you get an error message telling you what you already know...

This is what you should do.

step 1. ) Try it again. If no success, go to step 2.

step 2. ) Try it again. If no success, go to step 3.

step 3. ) Go make yourself a coffee, drink it and then try again only after waiting ten minutes or finishing the coffee, whichever comes first. If no success go to step 4.

step 4. ) Repeat step 3 replacing the coffee with Russian vodka to help support their economy. If no success go to step 5.

step 5. ) Find your own creative way to kill another twenty minutes. I'm all out of good suggestions. Then try it again. If no success go to step 6

step 6 ) OK. You've waited patiently about 40 minutes. Now its time to fire off an email to dedicatedsupport@wipc.net, very nicely telling Matt that the Kitco server seems to have hung and would he kindly shut it down and reboot it.

step 6a ) Now you have to wait a bit. This would be a good time to either get re-aquainted with your spouse or do what you used to do before your company made the mistake of giving you full internet access on your desktop.

step7 ) Send me an email at bkitner@kitco.com and then restart from step 1.

Remember to take down Matt's email address NOW and keep it somewhere. Don't use the other address I posted last time. Ed left the company and took it with him.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 01:26
sharefin (Fill It Up, With RAM: Cars Get More Chips) ID#284255:
http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/yr/mo/circuits/articles/27carr.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 01:22
Junior (RJ - Now Understands) ID#248180:
Glad you do. Very well stated. But my heart hurts and is broken when I get the attack/loss from the wallet contents in the hip pocket. Ouch.
We would always like to move with our hearts, yes. The heart does not have a place in commercial realities, graphs, charts, trends etc.
Wanna buy a PGM's Mine in Siberia?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 01:16
John Disney__A (top site this) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
to all
1. Glenn's call on gold was excellent .. I suspected
it would be but hoped it wouldnt.
2. Oris forecast on Russia was inspired .
3. This site is the best source of info I know of.
4. Son's call on yen was also not bad but dont tell
him I said that.
5. RJ always good but dont push his frumpy button.
Someone said he was the only guy that wanted to
stomp on frumpy.. not true .. where are my boots ? ..
the ones with spikes.. believe frump only exists
in the responses one writes .. RJ is unwittingly
KEEPING the DORK alive!! Let him dissapear .. or
only be seen fleetingly in various disguises .. like
Adolf in Peruvian villages. I know how mad he can
make you .. but ANYTHING you can do is time better
spent than responding to frump.
6. In line with RJ current feelings .. I feel not
good about silver .. I said 4.5 .. them I said 4.8.
I dont think anything good will happen till it clears
at least 4.8.
7. Im only in golds because of the cheap rand and the
piles of dough the RSA mines are making .. However I
would have been better off staying out altogether in
dollars.
8. Believe rand ( now 6.64 ) can easily go to 7.35.
Government Bonds here ( now 19.5 up from 13.5 ) can
go to 25 % yield should that rand rate eventuate.
9. At a rand rate of say 7 the worst rsa mine can
cruise along forever at a gold price of 250 .. The
North American mines would be finished . This is
just begining to be seen in the heavy falls of mines
like ABX Homestake and Newmont. The Aussie mines will
be good too as the aussie dollar is joining the rand
in crapola country.
10 .. Sorry for long post .. couldnt get on yesterday
and was desparate to blurt something out.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 01:06
Junior (Thoughts to Share & Wonder) ID#248180:
Copyright © 1998 Junior/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Russia's Chernomyridin within one week of his temporary post as PM saves Russia a reported $33Billion US$. Not bad for a week. The Russian Boys learn the capitalist ways of the West Bistro. Bankrupcy, and differ debts, bond swaps etc = Write-offs.

The possibility of Japan and other countries selling off US$ in/on mass will be tempting to most countries. Conversion to a partial or total gold standard is beginning to shout and is more and more accepted as sound and wise; especially if ones country currency has been burned by it's attachement to the US$.

We do live in interesting times. Batten down the hatches, as a lot more than Bonney lies or is a blowing over the ocean.

ORIS: Soon the Ruble will be golden, Yes/No? Vodka backing will make for liquid gold ruble. Keep your pickles crisp. Speaking of pickles, new Russian pickles are now packed with VIAGRA additive. Keeps them crisp and benefits the drinker. We use the generic form of Viagra that is called Mycoxaphalyn.
Cheers JR.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 01:01
Squirrel (Chas - re your 21:03 - I want a roll of Gold for my store to sell) ID#280214:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I should be able to sell 10-grain coins for US$10 or so.
and none of this vinyl envelope stuff. People like to fondle them.
These are meant to be used - traded for cases of beans & toilet paper.
Let's see -
If each of us buys in with 1 measly ounce and then sells 48 coins
to our friends, relatives, acquaintances and any other likely person...
Good gosh! We ought to have an initial minting of 100 ounces or so.
Not much risk - we can sell 'em at a profit buy 'em at $7 or $8 sell 'em at $10 or $11. This sure beats buying at $280 and selling at $315 {which is the same as buying at $8 and selling at $9}
And if they don't sell now - we have spendable Gold for after Y2K.
Hmmmm
Make that two rolls - one for me to sell and one for me to keep for Y2K.
Got Gold?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:59
Who Cares?__A (Hong Kong Market) ID#242328:

Holy cow, there really *is* something wrong with that graph of
the Hang Seng. Very, very interesting. Looks almost like a
power supply recitifer, trying to buffer those 120 v AC cycles
into a smooth 12 v DC.

Very interesting. In fact, several of the Asian markets have
surprisingly flat trading periods. I normally don't watch anything
intra-day. I'm really surprised at how manipulated they look
compared to the U.S. market.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:57
RJ (..... Now I Understand .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Could someone please explain how a currency that does not exist
Issued by nations with a millennium of animosity, murder, and hatred
Will replace the strongest currency to ever trade hands?
No lofty theories about what will happen or may happen
If and when and why so and so and so and so happens
This is the reality today, and today is where we live

The US dollar is coveted by every nation on earth
For in every nation on earth
The people within know they can exchange
This fiat currency for goods and services
While all others about them fail

This may be said of gold during certain times
But it is an incontrovertible fact
That this is the ways things are now
And have been for quite some time.

Perhaps that could change, but betting that the strongest
And most productive nation this world has ever witnessed
Will fall by the wayside based on newsletters and articles
From people who have been calling for this thing to happen
For more than two decades. And they all were wrong.
For 20 years straight they were wrong, why still read them?

Yet these same names are bandied and discussed to no end here
But simple market insight by myself, DA, APH, Oldman, Glenn and others
Is passed right over to get at the next Puetz Newsletter
In order to find out which eclipse will cause the inevitable crash
( By the way, given enough time, all things are inevitable )

I have never been one to criticize people who have lost money
For this has struck us all at one time or another
But, given these, and many other points of view hereabouts
Its no wonder that the money is going down the drain
If they continue to follow boneheads who are always wrong
They too will be always wrong, but they continue to believe

Perhaps some could cut down the belief time
Rather than blindly follow a guy that bats zero for 20 years
Give ‘em… say… 5 years. If they are wrong five years in a row
Dump the adviser down the memory hole with the remains of Fumpy
And don’t cry and moan about your losses.
Everybody here chooses their own path
The information that gold would fall
Has been offered in excruciating detail here.

I notice many of the same names
Yelling at the same bears
They were yelling at when gold was $400
I am beginning to understand
That all this hostility
By a few folks hereabouts
Is the manifest pain
Of suffering so many losses.

I can no longer take any offense whatsoever

It is not me you are mad at
You’re pissed at yourselves
For listening to cheerleaders
Instead of knowledgeable pros

When one invests with his heart
Rather than his brain
One’s successes will almost always
Be substantially under the odds
Of the mere flip of the coin

Sorry, but it needed to be said.

OK

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:51
6pak () ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
August 27, 1998

FOCUS-Asian markets dive on U.S. fall, Russia fear

SINGAPORE, Aug 28 ( Reuters ) - Asian markets plummeted early on Friday as investors rushed for the exits after Wall Street's overnight slump, and Japanese shares crumbled to a 12-year low.

Markets from Australia to Malaysia lost between three and four percent of their values after the U.S. sell-off appeared to confirm fears of a global economic downturn unleashed by Russia's meltdown.

Tokyo's 225-share Nikkei average sank below the critical 14,000 level, falling more than four percent to touch 13,792.76, its lowest level in just over 12 years.

It's cycle of one weak market triggering another weak market, triggering another weak market, said Michael Wilkins, a dealer at Credit Lyonnais. Where's the end?

Overall sentiment is very bad on fears a global recession may come true, said a dealer at a local brokerage. Best thing is to hold on to your cash.

Japan's top financial diplomat, Eisuke Sakakibara, told Reuters he would not be surprised if the yen continued its rise, and currency traders said the U.S. currency remained under strong selling pressure.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/MARKETS-ASIA.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:50
SDRer__A () ID#290172:
Does America Need A Gold Standard?
by F.R. Duplantier

Gold isn't just another commodity. Gold is money. Some day an international monetary crisis may rudely awaken us to this reality.
http://members.accessus.net/~eamiller/af/1996/sept96/96-0922c.html

Goodnight.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:44
THE GOLDEN PROPHET (The Yeltsin era is over!) ID#372262:
Nobody supports him any more! We will now see nationalistic socialism or civil war in Russia. Chaostan will lead the world to depression and war!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:38
crazytimes (RJ) ID#342376:
So if I respond to you, I declare war in your eyes, YES? If I don't, I'm a wimp that let you get to me, RIGHT? Enough childhood bully games, later......

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:34
Envy (Hong Kong) ID#219363:
What is up with that Hong Kong chart ? That's weird.

http://www.golden-eagle.com/asian_corner/asian_id_charts.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:32
newtron (John Dizzy say something pithy about how we can make some money tomorrow for gosh sakes !) ID#388209:


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:31
6pak (Numismatics (15 best coins 1997) Latvia 10-lats @ Russian 50-ruble gold coin.) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
REPUBLIC OF LATVIA MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS
CURRENT LATVIA
June 8 - 15, 1998
Wk. 24/98 ( 252 )



COMMEMORATIVE COINS RAISE THE COUNTRY'S PRESTIGE

The 10-lats coin that the Bank of Latvia issued within the framework of the international program The Smallest Gold Coins of the World has won recognition in an international competition organized by the well-known German magazine Deutsches Muenzenmagazin, which specializes in numismatics. The coin was included in the list of fifteen best coins issued in 1997.

The jury, which was comprised of well-known numismatists, evaluated the design, quality and theme of coins as well as other aspects that endow coins with numismatic value. One more coin issued by an Eastern European country, the Russian 50-ruble gold coin, was included in the list.

Presently, the 10-lats coin is this country's smallest. It was designed in Latvia by artist Janis Strupulis and struck at Valcambi SA in Switzerland. The coin's fineness is .999.9. The reverse features the gaff-sail schooner Julia Maria built in the 19th century.
http://www.mfa.gov.lv/MFA/PUB/ZINAS/CUR/CUR252.htm

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:28
newtron (APH, Do we load the hay ride on silver here or what !) ID#388209:


Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:28
SDRer__A (Mozel, would you take a look at this please?) ID#290172:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

It seems to me that these various considerations shed light on the situation in which we find ourselves today. The apparently incomprehensible decisions of our government find here an explanation which would take the true gravity of the stakes we face into account. It goes without saying that the spectacular decisions of the Federal Council would precede the popular referendum, the obligatory consultation for any modification of the Federal Constitution. It is also very probable that the anger, the lack of understanding, and the disgust of a large part of the population will lead to the rejection of the decisions of the Federal Council. This is all the more probable as the Federal Council will not be able to explain to the people the true stakes of its policy of treason against the interests of the country, and of the reasons of its suicidal strategy of blind submission to the dictates of the established global financial order.
JeanMarc Berthoud, Lausanne, March 1997
http://www.wavefront.com/~contra_m/ab/berthoud/swissgold.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:25
RJ (..... crazytimes .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Than this is none of your business, yes?
I speak for none but myself on these pages.
Last I saw, you and a couple of others
Were trying to police me

I have no problem with you or anyone else on this site
I cannot post on K2, my password does not work
A few comments on the muddled thoughts of Fumpy
Seem to elicit a very emotional response from you

What have you invested in this?
And why should you ( and a couple others )
Take it upon yourselves to try to control me?
I do you no harm. If you like Fumpy, get his e-mail
And trade sweet cooings in each others ears
Posted on K2 a few weeks ago
Was an e-mail from Fumpy
Signed D. ( farfel ) Cohen
He claims to live in Beverly Hills

Look him up, I could be wrong
But I think he is one of those guys
Ubiquitous, unkempt, and smelly
Who sells maps to the stars homes
For three bucks apiece

For myself, I have made every attempt
To bring these markets into clearer focus
For the readers of theses pages
To whom this market is new and confusing

Fumpy comes in with his one tune cacophony
And blows his wacky theories out into the ether
But there are thousands more lurkers than posters on this site
Many who may not have the market acumen you possess

Whacked out theories that have zero basis in reality
Tend to send these folks into bouts of confusion
Particularly and indeedy, when the market is moving fast
And the price is falling rapidly, Fumpy sees a shorts squeeze
After that dunderheaded blunder, bleated with glee,
He now rails again against the gold shorts
A looser complaining that the winners took his pie away

But who is making the money?
It ain’t the longs.

So therefore even indeedy and truly
Why not ignore my words about the Fumpster?
This would seem a less disruptive, less antagonistic, and better way , yes?

If not, feel free to bait away at me
Perhaps with some more of your reckless accusations
About drugs and alcohol and other imagined failings
Methinks your imagination is active and well
Or paranoia has you in its icy grip
For you look for demons were none reside

I promise to not respond
If you decide to continue complaining
I must set this good example
Of fine Kitco citizenship

Still and all, when all is said
I hope that you learn
The matter has naught to do with you
Quiet your pugilistic ways
For you will be boxing shadows

Not I

OK

PS
If you really want to do some good
Let’s take up a collection
To get Fumpy a new pie
He needs it

Yep

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:25
JIN (The end of the world?!...NO WAY!) ID#206358:
Copyright © 1998 JIN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Lost in stock investments,currencies and metals too.
Retail/wholesale also dropped nearly 80%...
So many negative news around the global..
..from elnino,bombs blasts,war here and there,turn around of the value of societies,crimes,economy slump,tensions building up everywhere....How we lived in this darkness?!

I accept,i believe and i'll be back when my wounds cure.
What i did,i decided,i choose,i never never regret.
For i know what i am and what i believe...!
by no-name

walking tall everyday,every moments,now and then!

rgds,
JIN

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:24
Selby (Found it) ID#286230:
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980827/V000827-082798-idx.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:22
crazytimes (@ Mozel) ID#342376:
A brilliant take on the matter! It ties in with ANOTHER's claim that oil will be priced in EURO's which will have a terrible impact on the dollar.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:22
Selby (mozel ) ID#286230:
Is there any substantiation of the gold rouble report?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:14
mozel (@Offensive Actions ) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The surprise attack by USG on Sudan and Afghanistan served several purposes. One purpose not much mentioned is the effect of these offensive actions on the Kingdom of Saudia Arabia. As the Arab, Moslem, Gulf nation hosting infidel American troops, Saudia Arabia can be expected to be as much a target of Islamic jihad retaliation as the USA itself. As Saudia Arabia is also a nation which we suspect is vitally involved in the introduction of the gold reserve Euro, one might conclude the Euro itself is the currency target of the cruise missles. The objective will be to force the Saudi to ask for American military support. In return the Saudi will be required to abandon the Euro.

In Russia the Central Bank announces that $127 Million of ruble gold coins can be in circulation in two weeks. Is that fast mint work or are the coins already in bags ? I am of the opinion the Russians think strategically and have no intention of becoming dependent on the $ like Japan. As $40 Billion of Russian private savings is reported to be in $ and the credit ruble is a washout, only gold coin can protect Russian monetary sovereignty. The appearance of any gold coin as standard currency is an arrow at the heart of all fiat credit currencies. Whether intended or not, the Russian anouncement is offensive action against the $US. Perhaps it is tactically planned to extort more Western $ from Clinton. If so, it certainly brings real pressure to bear.

At some point the LBMA will also be the scene of offensive moves by one or another nation in this ongoing currency war.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:13
cherokee (@....time.for.REAListic.consideratons.......) ID#288229:

wwIII....read on....

http://nw3.nai.net/~virtual/sot/dow9000h.htm

thanks fin-man....the ether is my friend...as is the wind...

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:12
Envy (Envy's Velocity Meter) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
After 5 percent correction

DOUBT n. 1: uncertainty of belief or opinion 2: a state of affairs that causes uncertainty or suspense 3 a: a lack of confidence b: an inclination not to believe or accept

After 7 percent correction

ANXIETY n. 1 a: painful or fearful uneasiness of mind usually over an impending or anticipated event b: a cause of such uneasiness

After 10 percent correction

FEAR n. 1 a: an unpleasant often strong emotion caused by expectation or awareness of danger b: an instance of fear or a state marked by fear 2: anxious concern

After 15 percent correction

TERROR n. 1: a state of intense fear 2 a: a cause of fear or anxiety b: a dreadful person or thing

After 20 percent correction

HORROR n. 1 a: painful and intense fear, dread, or dismay b: intense aversion or repugnance 2 a: the quality of inspiring horror b: something that inspires horror

After 30 percent correction

PANIC n. 1: a sudden overpowering fright; esp: a sudden unreasoning terror causing mass flight 2: a sudden widespread fright concerning financial affairs that causes hurried selling and a sharp fall in prices

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:10
Steve in TO__A (Chas - Info. on coins of the Roman Empire came from . . . ) ID#287337:
Copyright © 1998 Steve in TO__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Eerdman's Handbook to the Bible- a compendium of all sorts of interesting information about biblical life & times. Nothing fancy. They had a section on money as well as measures of length, volume, etc..

The Roman system of coinage required very good arithmetic skills. Their equivalent of the penny was a tiny copper coin called the Quadrans. The next coin up was the As, which equalled 4 Quadrans.

The Denarius was an alloyed silver coin ( 90% silver in the 1st century ) which was equal in value to 16 As ( or 64 Quadrans. )

25 Denarii equalled 1 Aureus, which was the Roman gold coin. It was very small, just like the Denarius. The Romans didn't make larger coins. You either had to carry a lot of Aurei or switch to one of the other currencies.

The Romans were not very strict about who could make currency, and were very liberal in allowing people to coin their own money. They didn't try to maintain a state monopoly on minting currency. Throughout the empire, local peoples continued to mint their traditional currencies, including the Hebrews, who minted the Lepton and the Shekel. There were 512 brass Leptons in 1 silver Shekel.

Greek currency was also minted in several cities, with the silver Drachma being approximately equal to the denarius in value, with 2 Drachma= 1 Didrachma, 4 Drachma= 1 Tetradrachma and 100 Drachma= 1 Mina. 60 Mina= 1 Talent, and so based on our calculations from before, the Mina would be approximately equal to a few hundred dollars, and the Talent to a few thousand dollars in purchasing power.

The Mina and Talent were used for transporting serious amounts of money.

Steve

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:07
Nicodemus (Hello and good evening morning to all... Future posts...) ID#335379:
Copyright © 1998 Nicodemus/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If Barts time bracket select would simply bring us flight reports from Gollum for future dates we might be able to settle all the debates about in-de-stag-re-flation, POG
Klinton impeachment, DOW bear-bull, and whether all our beloved here at Kitco will
survive WHYTOOKAY..... Bart did say that he was updating the site!
All time comes to us from the future, is percieved in the moment, and is remebered as the past. Use the past as wisdom for the future but not as a blueprint.
Also would like to remind us not to get caught in whipsaw effect. wait, keeep powder
dry, let wisdom, not emotion or greed guide your choices. Tough one I know. But we can do it.
Nicodemus
Get gold, gun, grub, good friends, and agua. ( water )
I think i'll trade in some of this old paper for some more of the gold stuff.Tis easier than alchemy!!!!

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:06
Suspicious (Nikkei down 3.05% // 13974) ID#287312:
:{

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:05
Suspicious (For a perfect head and sholders pattern:) ID#287312:
Look at a 90day SPX chart. Are we ready for the big one or not ?

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:04
Jack () ID#252127:

The Yen at 141 plus a pair to the US dollar at @
11:50 PM EST, looks like the Russian problem broke the
strange yen/gold relationship over the past few days.

I can't believe that Buffett just accepted the opines of the experts relative to silver before his purchases.
With his resources, I'm sure he had qualified people
checking out any possibility of hidden supplies.

Go SILVER, go GOLD, go Yen and JAPAN buy some of that gold with the stronger Yen, in fact if the yen weakens still buy it.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:03
sharefin (Live in a cold climate? save this one) ID#284255:
Chop wood, haul water
http://athena.ampsc.com/~imager/Y2k/Chopwater/chopwater.html

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:03
palmac (DUTCHMAN) ID#22751:
Thank you much. True to your form.

Date: Fri Aug 28 1998 00:02
sharefin (J Stack on Y2k) ID#284255:
-
It's difficult to find any historical precedent for comparison with the Y2K
problem. So in that regard, no one really KNOWS what the impact will be. All
we can say with certainty is that it'll be expensive and take a lot of time
between now and 12/31/99. In addition, it's a safe bet that if anyone
doesn't get the patches in place, it'll be government and Third World
countries.
Would I be on the first plane to land under air traffic control at JFK on
January 1st of the year 2000? Absolutely not! But most of the scare tactics
about lost bank or brokerage accounts are pure nonsense. The point is,
nothing gets wiped out or obliterated merely because a computer or program
crashes. Virtually all systems can still be brought up under a fake
( earlier ) date with backup data if necessary. Sure, some corporations who
didn't adequately prepare and test will shut down temporarily... or perhaps
permanently. And some government programs may cease to function for several
months as they scramble to fix the problem. The fears and rumors will likely
increase throughout the next 16 months.
If I had to make a wild guess [based on historical experience and today's
technical confirmation of a bear market], I'd say there's a high probability
of seeing the bear market lows and buying opportunity in December 1999 or
January 2000 at the time of maximum pessimism. Remember the Gulf War?!

As yet, the U.S. Dollar remains the global currency of choice. That is
likely to continue as long as international or emerging markets are
tumbling. We will advocate hedging the Dollar only after its own top appears
to be in place... until then, the currency speculators are in control.


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