Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:59
ROR (Earl ) ID#412286:
Any progressive worth his or her salt knows that incentive is critical to new product development and human progress.The goal of Democratic Socialism is to allow growth but limit or regulate it to the extent that its growth diminishes competition and progress. Govtal involvement is critical to keeping the playing field even. Further an egalitarian ethos and structure is healthy to cooperative development. The current wage differentials and difference in wealth can only be described as nazified in extreme further this is compounded by the relative acceptance of abortion especially late term which is clearly MURDER. But then the rich and powerful always want to have their cake and eat it too. Why should we be surprised!!!!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:55
vronsky (ASIAN CONTAGION) ID#427357:

As the East goes... so goes the West

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:53
In the fullness of time, mein Herr! The night is still young, nicht wahr? Don't forget! I'm NOT predicting a washout UNTIL THE END OF THIS WEEK, AND THEN, ONLY IF VOLUME EXCEEDS ONE BILLION SHARES!!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:53
SWP1 (Mr. CheeseHead) ID#233199:
It's not that it's so hard to scroll past your annoying CAPS, but in the event you actually care about what you write ( I do. ) why do you insist on making reding your posts so difficult?

Please do us both a service an consider fromatting your posts in such a way that they are more easy to scan ( by eye that is ) .

Don't waste you effort - if you are proud of your words let them be readable.

Thank you,


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:48
OLD GOLD (Cheesehead) ID#242325:
Spoos down 700 points on globex. Not a huge decline. We will have to drop much more than this to get the kind of washout you are expecting.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:47
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (NIKKEI DOWN 365!! @ 2.4%!) ID#394240:
Now below 14,800!!!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:46
Earl (ROR (6pak): ) ID#227238:
Well at least you got 3 sentences correct out of 4. ..... Please cite your evidence that a government beholden to labor cares a fig about entrepeneurs? A gouge is a gouge and neither will concern themselves about whose pocket is being lightened.

Small contractors especially have been driven out of business, labor with the full connivance of government. There are more union laborers capable of the vote, than contractors. It will always work just that way.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:46
mozel (@T1 @Your Words) ID#153102:
So grievous; so true.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:45
Envy (Nikkei) ID#219363:
Down to 14806.44, -317.49, -2.10 percent

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:45
Spud Master (@Charles Keeling re. Clintler's resignation) ID#288235:
nope, the guy's a sociopath. Like Hitler, he'll order the
subways flooded before he resigns; meaning he will inflict maximum pain on the American people -- precipitating the collapse of the stock market, etc.

I really expect, however, this creep to proke a national emergency and declare Martial Law. Then we'd see just what Article 2 really means.

Clinter et al should ignore Benjamin Franklin's advice about hanging together ; )

Spud, let the Impeachment begin!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:40
Envy (Japan, Nikkei and Land Prices) ID#219363:

Nikkei plummets to below 15,000
Asahi Shimbun

Shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange were sold across the board this morning, falling below the 15,000 mark for the first time since June 26. The benchmark Nikkei stock average closed the morning session at 14,913.09, 210.84 points below Friday's closing.

Land prices fall 5 percent
Asahi Shimbun

Land prices for housing fell an average of 5 percent as of Jan. 1 compared to the level a year ago for the sixth consecutive year of decline, according to a government report released this morning.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:38

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:37
Envy (Indonesian security forces brace for riots) ID#219363:
Thousands of police and troops were deployed or put on alert in the capital and other cities Sunday, the eve of nervous celebrations to mark Indonesia's national day. Rumors that riots may break out during the celebrations have swept much of the country.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:34
ERLE (Grizz,) ID#190411:
Try flechette 12 gage rounds.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:30
tolerant1 (Mozel, Namaste' and a gulp to offense taken, and none inferred in my previous) ID#373284:
post to law...exactly my point...the USG has gotten to the point that it slaughters the very sons and daughters that it is designed to protect and serve...

and We the People get to watch it on TV...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:30
arkbuilder (To Grizz ( re shotgun)) ID#247447:
Regarding your thoughts last night re: shotgun effectiveness. You might want to get hold of these people and discuss the special barrels they use on their shotguns.
They use a barrel that has been specially modified, back bored so the entire barrel becomes a choke. It is called a Vang Comp System. Using a Rem 870 with this barrel and ghost ring sights I was consistently putting 9 00 pellets on a 9 inch target at 25-30 yards in their shotgun course. And I was one of the least skilled shots there!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:28
Flash (Lurker 777 - Phillies) ID#301318:
From whom do you purchase your Phillies from?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:28
Earl (6pak (ROR 20:30:) ID#227238:
Bravo! And once put to flight, throw snakes at their heels.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:27
Fred (Y2K Advertisement) ID#341234:
I just saw a TV advertisement for Conns, an apliance retailer. They were saying that at Conns, you can buy a TV with no payments until the year 2000. The advertisement showed a family in a bomb shelter watching the ball drop on their new big screen TV. When the new year hit, the power went out and they turned on their generator. They were even eating food out of cans. I am not making this up.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:26
DOWN 6%!! Nikkei NOW BELOW 14,900!!!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:26
pdeep (All) ID#174103:
Anybody notice China down 6.13% Woof! Wonder what HK will do on tuesday.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:24
ROR (6pak) ID#412286:
I apologize, the true entrepeneur is just as much a victim as everyone else. My point was the propaganda of the corporatists to adopt entrepreneurialism as part of their ethos. Of course they hate true entrepreneurialism as it is a challenge to their power. In fact, a progressive govt which honors labor protects entrepreneurs at the expense of oppressive capital.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:23
mozel (@T1 No offense and No debate offerred) ID#153102:
but someone who thinks government is a gun impresses me as being one who has adopted the mentality of martial law, which is to say, no law.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:22
rhody (@ chas: thank you for your kind offer this pm re rhododendrons.) ID#411440:
There are severe restrictions on the transport of plants and soil
across the US-Canada border. Seeds are great however as no
restrictions apply. I continue in my hybridizing efforts to
achieve a perfect............ ( what else ) yellow rhododendron.

The wife and I will eventually get down to the Carolinas and
hopefully see Roan Mtn. It is exquisite in season.

I did summarize my most recent observations re. lease rates about
6:00 a.m. this morning. They show a bottoming pattern in both
one month and one year rates. My attempts at analysis are of
course included.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:19
6pak (skinny) ID#335190:
O tundra King.? : ) : ) : ) Take Care eh!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:19
Nikkei down 210!! Am looking for the DOW to nosedive into tomorrow's close and attempt a rally on Tuesday and Wednesday, ( IF BC APOLOGIZES ) , that will FAIL and lead us to NEW LOWS by the end of the week! This week could be a short term washout that will set the stage for a nice tradable rally next week.

BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE TRADING VOLUME OVER 1 BILLION SHARES FOR THIS TO OCCUR!! If volume remains anemic, we're destined to go LOWER until we see some sort of volume capitulation!!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:19
OLD GOLD (Bug) ID#242325:
If governments could control markets the Nikkei would still be at 39,000 instead of 15,000. Puetz and JP may be too bearish but you are much too complacent. The authorities probably can prevent a sudden crash a la 1987 but they cannot head off a severe bear market if the fundamentals justify such an outcome.

Stocks still are greatly overvalued and the Dow probably will be flirting with 7000 sometime this fall. Not the end of the world, but a punishing smash nonetheless.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:17
Envy (China) ID#219363:
Down 5.6 percent. Is that a big deal at all ? I'm not convinced.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:16
mozel (@Themissinglink) ID#153102:
I smell a fix.
I will be watching to hear if ANY questions are asked by the grand jirors themselves. Or just by government attorneys. A grand jury is not the instrument of the government. It is the instrument of the people. Let's see what kind of grand jury passes for a grand jury today. We shall watch the function of this government together... Yes ?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:13
skinny (Six Pac) ID#28994:
Talk at U later O tundra King......... Wife who is far too young and must be obeyed has shut me down....nite.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:10
tolerant1 (Mozel, Namaste' and a gulp at ya...Now...Hmmmmmmmmmm...believing one's) ID#373284:
point of view or propaganda is a matter of opinion are fierce within the defense of your beliefs, which are of course, not your own beliefs, because you are simply a follower as the beliefs you defend so vigorously…were not invented, nor created, nor dreamt of, nor developed in any manner, shape of form or thought by YOU…unless of course you are a reincarnated member of the original grouping of individuals that created the thoughts and documents which you defend…

Actually the government is nothing more than someone with a gun…that is government…no more, no less…

And the holder of a gun, any gun, can indeed be Jack’s ass…and therefore dumb…

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:08
themissinglink (Clinton/Starr) ID#373403:
I am watching all these talking heads discuss sex about tomorrows testimony on CNBC.

I think Starr is playing the president like a cat with a piece of string. Tomorrow the questions will focus on China and Loral. Maybe a question or two about the FBI files. Are campaign finance questions illegal? Will the president try to claim priveledge? There must be some lattitude in grand jury questioning.


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:07
strat (mozel) ID#93241:
I am reminded of a quatrain by the Indian saint, Kabir:

What is the world like?
A flock of sheep.
One falls in a ditch
And the rest jump in.

Goodnight all. Long day in the salt mine tomorrow....

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:06
IDT (Puetz) ID#228128:
I'm interested to know how you made your calculations for a big down move over the next week or two. I looked at the 87 and 29 crashes myself. Start by counting as trading day 0 the peak of the market. We had a corrective rally starting on the 21st trading day in 87 and on the 24th trading day in 29. With a July 20 peak in 1998 counted as day 0, we have the 21st trading day on August 18 and the 24th trading day on August 21th. So, if the history of these patterns repeats itself we should begin a corrective rally this week. I might add that the timing of the current first wave down, the second wave correction and the third leg down all bear striking resemblence to these crashes. The 3rd wave down might not be complete as yet but I expect that sometime soon we should get that correction. By the way, welcome back to Kitco

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 23:02
mozel (@Grizz) ID#153102:
I don't know why people believe their own stupid propaganda about how stupid government is. Somebody posted how USPS delivered a letter that had only the name on it. Now, FYI, USPS is part of DOD since Nixon. Think about that one a minute.

I think the notion that North Korea suddenly developed couterfeiting expertise in greenbacks when owed greenbacks by D.C. stretches credulity. Think about that one a minute. What kind of a regime does that sort of thing ?

We all know the announcement of a federal budget surplus was a baldfaced lie. And we each can think of other lies told to our face by this government. Think about that for a minute. Think about what is business as usual for government now. Think about what we have become accustomed to morally and tell me whither matters tend.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:58
tolerant1 (strat, Namaste' uh...huh...the Gorge...Hmmmmmmmmmmm...KY...) ID#373284:
yea buddy...ya know podge...truly KY is beautiful...gulp at ya...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:56
skinny (Six Pac) ID#28994:
FASCISM....A philosophy or system of government that advocates or exercises a dictatorship of the extreme right, typically through the merging of state and buisiness leadership, together with an ideology of beligerent nationalism.
That is the proper explanation..... The term Fascism is being misused on this forum. Mussolini was a faciast far more than Hitler, And to put it in place you need a dictator.
I have read these figures from 1936 about The 119 organizations that were for Hitler........ I don't believe it but I would wager there are far more today. But consider this, I do know that in Canada all members of Parliment must vote party line.or else... So you have 5 year dictatorships. One dictatorship after the other.
The same problem arises somewhat here in the States.
No one ever seems to be happy except for the socialists who imigrated to North America.
I think we all, Capitalist or Socialist have a good thing going in this part of the world and it would be best we not destroy it.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:51
Squirrel (Envy - ROR's credibility didn't have far to drop) ID#287186:
But 6pak's did rise a little - in the eye's of this small business owner.

Both are okay when it comes to markets and Gold and such.
But ROR, in particular, really wastes our bandwidth
when he gets on a rant about Social Democrats and all that.
This is not a forum where such views meet with acceptance.
But that is like some religious zealots who insist on trying to convert
the pagan heathens - right up until the pot {& tempers} begins to boil.

I look forward to the day when the fire burns out all the strangling
underbrush and we can begin anew with a new crop of fresh growth.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:50
tolerant1 (Grizz, Namaste' and a gulp at ya...just noticed your post, funny cause I was messing) ID#373284:
around with that n thing you asked earlier when I saw it...cheese and crackers...too much work for this, onto more serious matters, ...I pray/prey that it does not happen...bloodshed is WRONG...and yes I realize that there are times when it must occur...I grew up in Manhattan and I can tell you sometimes the situation calls for blood-letting, no choice or be dead...but...hopefully, like I said, Jack's ass in D.C. does not get that arrogant or stupid...

The American people when ired will slaughter with zero forgiveness and let history and lawyers sort it out later, years later...

I raise this glass...and a gulp to it not happening...but when faced with worse than death...anything less than freedom, well...see previous sentence...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:48
Perhaps you misread my enthusiasm for a Nikkei/Yen debacle! Contrary to popular opinion, I am NOT a cheerleader for global depression! I take no particular pleasure in the meltdown of the world economy! However, I am a REALIST! Like others here at Kitco, I see what is REALLY taking place behind the establishment fascade of Louis Yukaiser and Joe Battypaglia! The crash of the global economy is the result of decades of central bank manipulation and deception with the complicity of socialistic government leaders! It HAD to happen! The ONLY QUESTION unanswered until just recently was WHEN!! Anyone who really wanted to know that this would be the result of a world trading system divorced from the discipline of the only universally accepted, proven and reliable store of wealth--GOLD, could easily have discovered this by logging on to KITCO over the past several years and heeding the wise advice of those who post here! But alas, as is usually the case, prophets of doom are seldom heeded until their prophecies begin to come to pass, and by then, it is usually too late! Those who DO heed them, sometimes become disilliusioned when the prophecy does not come to pass as quickly as forecast, lose heart and sell out at just the time when the prophecy DOES start to come true! So they LOSE DOUBLE!! The tell-tale warning signs of this debacle are and were all around us, have been for several years, but, like the end of the world, the exact day and hour knoweth no man! So while I admit, I AM SHORT THIS AGED BULL AND MAKING BIG BUCKS BECAUSE OF IT, it is also true that I take no particular pleasure in seeing my bearish predictions or the bearish predictions of others here come to pass, nor in the hardship and suffering they may cause those who fail to heed them. BUT, I do admit to enjoy seeing the aforementioned PROPHETS of PERPECTUAL EUPHORIA receiving their due comeupance and the leaders of the world economy scrambling to find a safe anchor on which to moor their crumbling global financial edifice! My final word of warning is that the global meltdown we are now witnessing will be used by the globalist monied elite to gain total power and control over the nation-states of the world, and to introduce a globalized electronic cash system with which to enslave and control the world, its peoples, its resources and its trade!

Herrn Keeling and Puetz--

Thanks for the kind words and encouragement! I have no intentions of not
posting things as I see 'em! As for you Mr. Puetz, your only sin was being TOO EARLY! But as we all know--better too early than TOO LATE!!! Keep posting 'em as you see them! Now EVEN THE OLDMAN IS A BEAR!!! Heh..heh..heh!!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:44
strat (tolerant1) ID#93241:
So ya' didn't make it to the Gorge, eh? Pretty country down there. The Happy Hunting Grounds, ya' wonder that Dan'l Boone settled into the Bluegrass, yes? I'm due for a trip to them hills myself.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:41
Grizz (tolerant1, Namasté) ID#431366:
In a way I hope the USG tries something on a large scale.
Then, as you say, the average American will be so enraged that a civil war will ensue ( and Hanoi Jane can stay in Argentina ) .

But if they nibble at as one at a time, not enough in any one chunk to really get the host irritated enough to take effective widespread action against the parasites, then they could perhaps pull it off.

Then too, both sides can play the taunt and escalation game.
The militias will not remain quiet while this occurs.
When they eventually trip our trigger it will be bloody ugly.
And any sympathizers caught in the crossfire will be dog meat.
Some nests that are beyond hope will be razed to the ground -
most likely by those living therein since they will self-destruct
since they know nothing else to do. Just as well.

The price of lead and brass may surpass the price of Silver and Gold.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:41
Envy (@6pak) ID#219363:
Needless to say a lot of business owners saw that when it was posted earlier, and I think ROR's credibility value dropped substantially. Let's just drop it and move on.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:39
tolerant1 (strat, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...nah, ya wires ain't crossed...STUDIO_R bless his) ID#373284:
heart...had a cylinder miss-fire and forgot that was not going to be until after the Island that is Long festivities...and I make sure large men with bad attitudes are under the leaves, in the trees and on the roofs watching over me Mumm...and then its into those parts of KY where the good fun takes place in dwellings which ain't off a paved road...uh huh...and I promise...several gulps to ya of the good stuff...caramel color or clear...but of course...but on this evening...a gulp of Cuervo to ya...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:37
6pak (ROR 20:30) ID#335190:
Is it possible that you have erred, as in At the behest of the Capitalist Corps and Entrepreneur's

Entrepreneur -- ( 1852 ) To undertake, one ( human being ) assumes the risk of a business.

Capitalism -- ( 1877 ) An Economic System of Corporate ownership.

Corporate -- ( 1512 ) Formed into an association and endowed by law with the rights and liabilities of an INDIVIDUAL --A group of merchants or traders UNITED in a trade GUILD

Guild -- ( 14c ) ( more at GELD ) - medieval association of merchants or craftmen UNION ORDER SOCIETY CLUB

Geld -- ( 14c ) CASTRATE to deprive of a natural or essential part.

ROR you suggest, that an Entrepreneur is a party to such SYSTEM of tricks, trickery, trickster's, obviously, you do not know eh!

An Entepreneur will make this weeks payroll from his personal funds. Yes, such responsibility is a happening each and every week, no Union, Order, club, or Society, will provide the weekly funds. ( IMF-World Bank Etc. )

Yes, you have erred, suggesting that an Entrepreneur is part of the team to gain control over your economic rights and freedoms/liberty, the Entrepreneur, is as much a victim, as are the Citizen/Taxpayer/Worker.

FWIW Take Care

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:33
themissinglink (Japans big bang, Clintons testimony, and Y2K) ID#373403:
I find it amazing that events begin going in directions obviously leading to crisis yet no one can veer away.

Y2K. I just got an Airedale Terrier puppy. I might get another. They are great dogs. Patient with kids and protective. Might be more effective than a gun in moderately dangerous situations.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:32
Lurker 777 (FYI) ID#320226:
Now that Gold is DUMPING and could go lower, I got concerned about my gold holdings and sent this E-MAIL to the Austrain Mint. Here is our correspondence:

I am interested in purchasing some 1 oz. Austrian Philharmoniker gold
coins. Would you please answer a few questions I have?
If gold fell in price, would I be able to redeem the coins for the face
value of 2000 shillings? Who guarantees the face value of 2000
shillings. Is the Philharmoniker a legal tender ( money ) coin? Thank you!
I look forward to your response. Lurker 777

Gesendet am: Donnerstag, 6. August 1998 05:10
Marketing Marketing
Betreff: 1 oz Philharmoniker Gold coins

Dear Lurker 777,

The Vienna Philharmonic coin is a coin of Austria and as such is legal
tender in Austria. Its face value is guaranteed by the Central Bank of

In the unlikely event that gold fell below the equivalent of 2000
schillings per ounce, its face value would be greater than its gold bullion value. Under such circumstances gold bullion coin dealers would base their purchase price on the face value rather than the bullion value. In this manner the face value would serve as a floor for the value of the coin.

Let me know if you do purchase some coins and how you made out on the

Kirsten Petersen

As all the old-timers here know, I have been buying and recommending the Phillies for the last seven months. Now there is NO doubt about it, the 1 oz. Austrian Philharmonic 999.9% pure Gold coin is the BEST coin in the world! It has a face value of $160.00US and cost no more than other bullion coins. Right now they are under $300 per coin and if you got to buy Gold Bullion coins buy the best.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:29
strat (tolerant1) ID#93241:
How was KY? Weren't you down in the hills last week or do I have my wires crossed?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:28
tolerant1 (alright already with this slave talk crap and the big bad USA and all of the rest of the) ID#373284:
initial groupings jack's ass in the District of Columbia have come up with...all you people need to know is that one individual can now carry far more destructive power than at anytime in history...

missles for pennies that can take out zillion dollar whatevers...wake up to the smell of coffee...sheesh...and when your nostrils are filled, your brains jumpstarted, and your mindseyes wide open, prey the federal jack's asses are not that stupid...this country will see more blood than in the Civil War...prey that does not that happen...I have told you when Mr. and Mrs. regular America gets angry...YIKES!!!

Oh yea...all the big brother jerks...nah...nah...nah......nah...nah..nah

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:21
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
mozel -- I've also heard 'guillotine' camps.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:20
mozel (@Earl) ID#153102:
I ain't paranoid. I'm informed. The armaments are on the street already. Seen by American eyes. And, naturally, that's not the whole iceberg.

It's one plus one. The computers for IRS are hopeless. The Executive Order is written authorizing IRS, BATF, and other agencies to live off the land. For what other purpose than foraging do they need all this armament ? By pretending that the states are still as they were before the restructuring into puppet Socialist Republics and are rebellious, they can forage under international law. The federals did it in 1860-65 EVERYWHERE. Read the documents from the times. Don't they show that part in the movies or print it in the sanitized history books ?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:16
just got in from a lovely dinner with Reify and his wife, me and Mumm...the kids were out of control...tequila...of and chips, gumbo the right way...Canterbury Ales on NY Avenue in Huntington if you care to visit it at any time...

The warmth of dear people, good food, good drink...uh is always good when the preceeding reigns...oh, of course, beer...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:16
Envy (China) ID#219363:
Just passed the -4.30 percent mark. Just FYI.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:13
Puetz (Stock Market Crash) ID#222167:
BugAl: I'm predicting a big down-move in the DJIA this week
based on time-cycles from previous crashes. I have studied
all of the major market crashes since the Tulip-mania -- in
great detail.

They all follow very similar patterns. I believe it has to
do with the patterns of crowd-psychology -- so it's more of
a psychological study than an economic or financial study.
Where manias end, crashes begin.

It is based on these patterns, that I predict a huge down
move this coming week. I think the DJIA will decline by at
least 400 points, but it could be down as much as 1400 by
next friday. We shall see next weekend.


Steve Puetz

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:08
AUH20 (kapex) ID#200235:
I hope you are right. I am fully invested in gold stocks now . I bought heavily in March of this year, thinking that was the bottom.
I will do whatever it takes to buy more on any serious downside.

ABX at l0.00 would be like theft ( stealing ) but Asia tanking as we speak can only mean POG goes down further.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:08
Gollum (@Scotty ) ID#43349:
Good luck.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:07
Envy (January 1st, 2000) ID#219363:
Don't you just wish you had a Barron's Weekly for that day.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:07
Earl (mozel (@What Federal Foragers Will Bring To The Party):) ID#227238:
If the IRS stuff is grounded in fact, does that mean we 'do' have a reason to be paranoid? ....... Could it not mean that the IRS is preparing to defend each taxpayer and his assets from unwarranted seizure? That must be it.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:04
Gollum (Clinton eve contimues) ID#43349:
Market indices still down. Dollar still down against ALL major currencies. PM's now weakly down.

If the past is any guide the DOW will be down tomorrow on low volume.

It is of interest that the Yen is up despite the Nikkei's travail, and even so, the PM's are not responding well.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:01
kapex (AUH20.........I'm taking NOW and have been! Don't think it'll go much lower) ID#275194:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 22:00
mozel (@Grizz Pretty Good.) ID#153102:
I think ROR said they would be re-education camps.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:59
AUH20 (any movement would be welcome) ID#200235:
POG has been in 280 - 290 range for too long. Move will come this week. IMHO, it will be down............. the key is going to be determined in china and russia. If both tank this week or next, then 250 POG is a real possibility. At 250 POG I would be willing to mortgage my house and buy gold stocks with both hands.
At 250 pog, ABX = l0.00, Newmont = ll.00 ( US ) . Any takers?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:59
Bingo ( can't put out commentary like that) ID#263254:
and not verbalize your concepts, as you see them. You gotta do it,
for the sake of all to see. A lawyer, Im not, but you can bet I'll
be reading it. Sort of juice up the Sunday read here at kitco! Yeah.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:55
mozel (@Grizz) ID#153102:
It ain't hard to trap a turkey with corn. And they are more wary than most critters. The American people have been corn trapped by their government. Tax deduction here, school loan there, and always the lure of social security. They're gonna' be sittin' in a cage sayin' where's the corn ? And somebody is going to pass a bill for all the corn they've had on credit between the bars to them.

As long as we have arms and gold there is some chance.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:54
Grizz (Skinny - we will have to keep an eye on ) ID#431366:
Social Democrats and similar supporters of budding tyrants.
They may be far more dangerous than we may ever know.
As we speak here,
They are keeping a black notebook or computer file on us.
For use when their friends knock on our door.
Or kick it in.
to consfiscate our computers, files, food, guns, ammo,
and our Gold and Silver.

And then haul us and our families off to relocation camps.

Mozel, is this more like it?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:54
EJ (A tale of two Chinas) ID#45173:
China Shanghai Composite 1132.777 -35.249 3.02%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 7224.69 +564.27 8.47%

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:54
Mike Sheller (Sufficient unto the day) ID#347447:
are the evils thereof. Tomorrow might, or might not be added to the list of War, Crime ,and Disaster events on August 17th. Enjoy.

In 1863, Federal batteries and ships bombarded Fort Sumter in Charleston Harbor in South
Carolina during the Civil War.
In 1877, F.P. Cahill became the first man to be mortally wounded by Billy the Kid -- notch number 1
for the Kid.
In 1917, Italy declares war on Germany & Turkey.
In 1940, Hitler orders total blockade of Great-Britain.
In 1942, during World War II, U.S. Eighth Air Force bombers attacked Rouen, France.
In 1943, US 8th Air Force loses 60 B-17O at attack on Regensburg/Schweinfurt.
In 1943, US troops under Gen Patton over run Messina.
In 1943, the Allied conquest of Sicily was completed as U.S., then British, forces entered Messina.
In 1955, Hurricane Diane, following hurricane Connie floods Connecticut River killing 190 & doing
$1.8 billion damage.
In 1959, USSR & Iraq signs contract for building Iraqi nuclear reactor.
In 1959, a 7.1 quake struck Yellowstone National Park.
In 1962, East German border guards shot and mortally wounded 18-year-old Peter Fechter, who
had attempted to cross the Berlin Wall into the western sector.
In 1969, 248 people were killed as Hurricane Camille slammed into the Mississippi Gulf Coast.
In 1976, Mindanao, Philippines: earthquake and tidal wave left up to 8,000 dead or missing.
In 1988, 10 years ago, NYC first case of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever ( 9 year old Bronx boy ) .
In 1990, Iraq said it would play host to all foreign citizens in the country who were from aggressive
nations, and place them in military and civilian targets until the threat of war was over.
Goto Top

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:54
6pak (Spock @ 21:10) ID#335190:
The quote is recorded as having been stated by, Pres. Franklin D. Roosevelt, on April 29 1938 Message to Congress, Senate Document No. 173 75th Congr. 3rd Sess.,

FWIW, Take Care

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:53
3-cubed (DOW) ID#344239:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:52
3-cubed (DOW) ID#344239:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:52
robnoel__A (I thought there were MEN here I guess all who fear CONFISCATION are a bunch of wimps......) ID#411112:


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:51
Scotty (Checking In!!) ID#290271:
Hi everyone! I've been busy lurking, but not too busy posting. So, what's the haps on gold? I'm still contrarian and proved it by putting a chunk down last week in a gold mutual fund -- I think we'll see a nice 10% bump up in the next couple weeks. Get in -- get out; and then sit it out for awhile. Maybe buy on the next dip

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:50
tsclaw (@ WINSTON_A) ID#327123:
Do you honestly believe that the market is going to rally with Gore as President. Get Real! If anything the market goes down and GOLD goes up.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:48
kapex (A-B-C... Correction to the upside should carry the Dow to the 8716 area.) ID#275194:
This is a .382 retracement of the 1st 5 waves down.
8960 area if a .618 retracement.
Don't think it will get that far.
IMVHO, if we go below the 8320 low this market is in trouble.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:40
Winston__A (The day Clinton is forced out) ID#243420:
The day Clinton is forced to resign will be the beginning of the biggest one-day market rally ever. Not a good time to be short.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:36
Spock (Beaming out............) ID#210114:
Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:34
mozel (@a,j, @National Emergency) ID#153102:
The 1976 legislation following the Church hearings DID NOT. Nada. Just cleaned up the statutes administratively.

The federal usurpations in law are so far ahead of the average citizen's conception of what is possible that my head spins over how to communicate the facts.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:34
The Hatt (More important than japan minus 276pts....) ID#294232:
Is the fact that china is off almost 4%. Continued pressure will force an immediate devaluation.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:33
Mike Sheller (Steve in To) ID#347447:
Steve, don't get me wrong. I DO believe government will attempt confiscation of gold sometime again. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next year, maybe not in the next decade. But I do not believe for a MINUTE that it is not a possibility, indeed a likelihood, under the right circumstances.

As for someone's comment that they wouldn't confiscate US Eagles ( not US golden eagles., mind you ) because they market them, that is nonsense. The loss of revenue from sales will be dwarfed by the benefit at the service of fiat money as far as the fed and the government is concerned. There is no contest. Coins will go too. Pronto.

You gotta know where to hold 'em.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:33
Grizz (If Hitler had met adequate resistance early on...) ID#431366:
That was a comment made during one of the WWII documentaries.
Pardon me Mozel, for being overly optimistic.
Perhaps gun ownership by Americans who would resist a petty tyrant
is a safeguard, albeit a thin one, against an Arkansas-bred tyrant
or a successor thereof from ever getting so out of control that he
or she would constitute a threat to his or her nation and the world. Petty tyrants like Hitler or embryonic tyrannical governments,
because their people acquiesce during the formative years, eventually become too powerful to stop with just votes or citizen militias.
They then involve neighboring nations and eventually the world.
Perhaps this is just inappropriate rationalization of gun ownership
and I am placing far too much hope and responsibility upon Americans
or any similar people anywhere to nip such brewing trouble in the bud.
But it is an interesting perspective, Yes?
To provide armed resistance early on while such resistance can still
be effective. Perhaps in America, that opportune time has passed -
in which case we are all in for a lot trouble - Canada in particular.
Imagine, if you will, America as an tyrannical powerful enemy acting
in cooperation with China and other communist or tyrannical governments
to oppress freedom throughout the world. Small nations and their freedom loving peoples wouldn't stand a chance against such forces.
Come to think of it, from the perspective of other small nations now,
that time has come. Nations all over the world are feeling the iron heel
of an American government which has grown beyond the ability of its
citizens to reign it in. Dark days truly may be on a stormy horizon.
Please correct me where my line of thought has erred.

If the above is true, and the examples from WWII still hold,
then holding Gold is indeed a wise move, if we can hang on to it.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:32
Spock (Trying the Vulcan Mind Meld...) ID#210114:
No-one talking to me today..........

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:31
6pak (skinny @ The Land of The Free?) ID#335190:
Sun Aug 16 1998 19:57 skinny ( 6 pac )

I am told that 95% of you socialist swine live within 100 miles of the American border. ( gonna have to keep an eye on yu eh )

skinny you can be sure that your trusting corporate/government has been doing just such, for many years. Like, since the war of 1812.

Not to worry, Canada is the only industrialized country in the world, that has been taken over, without a shot being fired.

Consider if you will, that the USofA in 1936, according to researcher's, there were 119 pro-fascist organizations in the good old USofA, having connections with 5,000,000 people.

By 1940 the powerful pro-Hitler American First Committee contained representatives of much of American Industry. The fact that after Hitler came to power, there were no Trade Unions in Germany, made a powerful impression on many American Industialists.

you socialist swine eh!
FWIW - USofA pro-fascist organizations EH!
Take Care

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:30
Steve in TO__A (Mozel - I fully expect the money laundering rationale . . . ) ID#287337:
to be used to justify the next gold confiscation. I've already heard rumblings about gold from a Swiss character in the proceedings of a money laundering conference.

The gov't will issue press releases about how drug runners are using gold coins and bars to move their ill-gotten gains around, and right on cue some alarming stories will appear in the media about how gold allows the drug barons to operate with impunity.


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:28
mozel (@What Federal Foragers Will Bring To The Party) ID#153102:
The most recent budgetary figures show that the IRS has already purchased a million dollars worth of SigArms high capacity semi-automatic handguns, and by the year 2000 the IRS will have spent $200,000 more on high capacity Remington shotguns. Fiedor site

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:26
Mike Sheller (Puetz's Puts) ID#347447:
Now I admit I'm just a shade-tree astrologer, and a half-ass*ed technician and chart reader, but it looks to me like the doughty Dow has put in a nice leg down, a mid-decline consolidation, another equal sharp leg down, a spike bottom, a bounce, and a test of that bottom. Five waves anyone? With all this happening at a rare Mercury station squaring NYSE Sun ( and conjuncting Bill Clinton's Sun! ) which is now moving away in the retrograde ( hey Steve, this is REAL mundane horary astrology - not that ersatz eclipse stuff you fiddle with ) . Add to that that half the list has already undergone a correction of 20% or more, and new lows are swamping new highs, I would think that the crash is just about over. A rally should begin this week, even if it is ONLY an abc correction of this completed wave. And it may be surprisingly more than that. I will await the opening on Wall Street tommorrow with much enthusiasm. Thanks for making the Bloomberg News at coffee exciting again, Steve! Gold just wasn't cutting it for me anymore.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:25
themissinglink (Depression era jewelers) ID#373403:
Can anyone shed some light on what strategies jewelers followed during the depression? Become a buy shop?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:24
Steve in TO__A (Mike S. & Bug_Al - Gold confiscation) ID#287337:
Gold confiscation has been a common ploy of governments throughout history. There have been repeated cold confiscations- FDR's was only the most recent. FDR's was preceeded by the one in Russia!

Governments have been stealing for millenia- why do you not think they would do it again in a national emergency which is what the coming financial meltdown will be called?

In the 3 most recent gold confiscations, numismatic coins have been left alone, even in the Russian case. I guess the theory is that they're out to confiscate gold hoarings rather than people's coin collections.

- Steve

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:24
Spock (When greed takes over from the common good.) ID#210114:
Bretton Woods was designed to stop a repeat ofthe Great Depression. Money movements were controlled, and currency were managed.

It was dissolved in 1971 - 73.

Now we have the same pre-Depression system of uncontrolled capital movements and are seeing the same result. Financial meltdowns, recessions..... perhaps even depressions.

We don't ever learn do we

Live Long and .... well I was going to say prosper but.....

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:21
Spock (Nikkei Down) ID#210114:
226 points or 1.5%

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:17
mozel (@Bugall @Is sheeite or sh*t more expressive) ID#153102:
Your odds of losing your gold to the government depend entirely on whether or not somebody in Law-enforcement sees it or not. If they see it, they can seize it. Then, they got it.

They outlawed drugs. They can outlaw gold again. They can outlaw cash. They can outlaw anything they want to cuz what is there to stop them ?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:15
sharefin (Fiedor yanks media blanket off Clinton's Oriental Bed) ID#284255:
The Executive Order Above All Executive Orders
The Whitehouse Library

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:13
Mike Sheller (ROR, Earl) ID#347447:
ROR, Earl just said it all for me. After giving me the laff of the nite about his repast, I really do think he echoes most kitcoites when he tars corporate and special interest welfare with the same brush. What is the old saying? Socialism is state welfare for the people - while Fascism is state welfare for the rich. We must have Fascialism then, no? Maybe we will suffer an Indeflation as a result.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:13
Steve in TO__A (Charles K. - Dick Morris says that Clinton said . . . ) ID#287337:
he would never resign! I think you underestimate the determination & staying power of these two. WJC is a psychopath, not in the sense most people think of it, but in the clinical sense. I have had to deal with one of these, fortunately not a criminal psychopath, and I tell you, they amaze you with their willingness to ignore what everyone else considers the bounds of common decency and common sense.

- Steve

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:12
kapex (digdeep/charles.........That would take Character, integrity and dignity) ID#275194:
. I do not believe he posseses these qualities. Does anyone?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:12
Spock (Jung) ID#210114:
Hong Kong on holiday today. You'll have to wait until tommorrow for the crash.

Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:10
Spock (I need a SOURCE) ID#210114:
Someone posted this a few weeks ago. Does anyone know a book where I could get these quotes?

On April 29 1938 President Franklin D. Roosevelt told Congress “the statistical history of modern times proves that in times of depression concentration of business speeds up. Bigger business then has larger opportunities to grow still bigger at the expense of smaller competitors who are weakened by financial adversity.” “American business might be forced to turn to some form of disguised Fascistic dictatorship” announced H. W. Prentiss, former president of the National Association of Manufacturers. President Roosevelt took note of it by declaring that “the liberty of a democracy is not safe if the people tolerate the growth of private power to a point where it becomes stronger than their democratic state itself. That, in its essence, is fascism...”

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:10
George__A (Mr) ID#433172:
If you are out trolling and start to catch fish they sometimes just keep coming aboard, so you just keep going. Then afterwhile you notice your just going along...nothing happening. So about then you realize you've run out of the fish. Seems simple but it happens all the time , over and over. It takes years to learn ( at least me ) when to turn around and stay with them. It's an art.

Maybe the stock market is a little like that, and I think they've run out of the fish. Why would the Japanese invest in American stocks or bonds? They just did that in nippon, and they know whats going on here now. They will do the unperdictable.

I think Puetz is right, we are in the begining stages of a receeding market, and it will go fast. I'm going to average down my Canadian jrs.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:07
Gianni Dioro__A (3-Cubed, Swiss Gold Backing) ID#384350:
Thanks for the info. That figure must only apply to notes in circulation. The gold link must be perverted by the increase in checkbook money ( digital money ) through fractional reserve banking. The Swiss National Bank could not honour the Constitutional Link very easily if people started withdrawing money from their accounts and asking Swiss Francs in notes to put under their matresses.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:05
Charles Keeling (@ DIG DEEP RE: Clinton resignation) ID#344225:
If He is very, very, smart he will take his winnings and go.

If he hangs sround for impeachment, he will lose everything.
Even a 10% chance for impeachment makes it worthwhile for him
to tender his resignation. Much more stuff is to come!

I agree with you. Tomorrow night he will resign. I would if
I were him. Hillary probably will insist. Pack it up and get out of Dodge. He still gets to keep all the benifits, and the legal bills
will stop. Has a deal already been reached?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:05
Envy (@Jung) ID#219363:
Try again, Japan just nose dived.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:03
Jung (nikkei down) ID#237164:
At 9:05 pm eastern, the Nikkei is at 14956.79 -167.14 -1.11%

Hong Kong will open soon, and lets see what happens to the
artificial support.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:03
Suspicious (Complacency) ID#287312:
If the market does indeed seriously tank this fall as many of us expect
The public may become much more aware of Y2K looming. If the bear is indeed here people won't have the money to prepare for Y2K. Unless they
sell what little is left of their mutual funds. I fear 1999 will begin
in fear and end in caios.
The only positive is, in five years you won't be able to find a liberal anywhere.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:02
Earl (ROR/Old Gold:) ID#227238:
I believe each of you would be hard pressed to find any sympathy whatsoever in this forum for banks or corporate welfarists. Or the wealthy moneyed interests for that matter.

I think I speak for most here by expressing the opinion that corporations should sink or swim on their own merits ...... just like the rest of us. To label us otherwise is an insult.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 21:02
Spock (BUGal-A: Gold for Arms) ID#210114:
Tha was fifty years ago. The times they are a changing...

Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:59
kapex (The Liberal Left Wing Media.) ID#275194:
Isn't that just quaint, how the movie An American President is on TBS tonight. The day before Clinton testifies, or lies Again. It doesn't matter to the TV and print Media.
He could be the biggest Pervert around and they would still defend him. It's just doesn't matter, because the media told us so!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:54
BUGal__A (@ Mr. Puetz) ID#259260:
On what basis do you predict this market crash and panic? Many have come before you as prophets of Doom with timetables. The great crash of 1990, etc.

I would just say this.

If one predicts global disruption from a colliosion with a comet or meteor, one will eventually be proved right and be considered wise.

If one predicts that such a collision will take place next week, one might be thought a fool.


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:53
Charles Keeling (@ BUG_al RE: your prediction) ID#344225:
You well may be right. If you are then the fall, when it comes,
will be even more dramatic and painful. If the dollar doesn't
go down soon, we are in for a REAL problem. If the USA really
wants a global economy to last, this is not the way that it is done.

Over half the world can no longer afford to buy US goods. If China
goes, make that 2/3rds. The dollar being too strong can have devestating
impacts. But our boy President is pre-occupied. No one is watching.
We are now engaged in a war of the currencies. When will that translate
into just another war?

The USA needs a 30 % correction in order to keep the other currencies of the world afloat. If it doesn't happen, we are going to see the other countys of the world outlaw the holding of the US dollar. China could be the first.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:53
robnoel__A (ROR ...did you read the artical I posted for you by Charlie Reese) ID#411112:


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:51
Earl (ROR:) ID#227238:
Sorry for the delayed response. I was in the midst af an expansive repast made all the more enjoyable for knowing that many would suffer on my behalf. What sheer lunacy! ....... In point of fact my evening meal was probably much less inviting than yours. A leftover salad and superb roast beef sandwich compliments of yesterday's roast.

None of us hereabouts bear any animosity toward the less fortunate. And few of us lift their wallets in guise of helping them. ... If you get my drift.

Forgiveness and compassion are wonderful character traits which all of share in common. A developed sense ofpersonal responsibility would likely reduce the need for the other two.

What I find irritating is your inability to recognise that since we cannot control our brothers profligacy at the outset, we are under no obligation to chip in to bail him out of his difficulty. ........ and add to your personal income in the process.

Your social conscience always seems to have a direct connection to your personal income.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:50
Digdeep (Resignation) ID#267276:
I think there is a 10% chance that clinton will resign tomorrow nite
This is based on my belief that much more criminal charges will get him impeached. The congress may have offered him an escape hatch by using the
monica card as his out. This would keep the country from going through a
difficult and dirty period.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:49
Gollum (Clinton eve.) ID#43349:
Market indices are down. Dollar is down against ALL major currencies. Precious metals are weakly up.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:47
BUGal__A (5 Tons of Gold............for arms) ID#259260:
A most fascinating show today on the A&E channel. The sinking of the Edinborough in WW2, which contained 5 tons of Russian Gold which was being exchanged by Stalin for Western arms. The show focused on the recovery efforts that took place in modern times. The Gold was recovered.

But to a GoldBug, one fascinating aspect was the direct transaction of Gold for arms. It would seem that no Ruble or dollar or Pound was involved. When the going gets tough, in times of war, the tough believe in Gold.


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:43
Bully Beef (Submit! submit ! Submit!) ID#259282:
I think I have submitted to the MACHINE....WELCOME...WELCOME...TO THE MACHINE! PINK FLOYD

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:42
BUGal__A (One Clinton Comment.......... Markets and ratings will be up by Friday) ID#259260:
Being we now are a nation who puts sentiment before honor, feelings before truth, selfishness before values, Groupthink before real think.
Psychobabble before honest analysis. Spin before fact. Victimhood before responsibility.

Being also that we have an ultra leftist media / Govt. complex which will do all in it's power to support tomorrow's spindoctors from the Clintonian camp. This is what we shall see, in markets.

Clinton will deliver his lawyerly weasal words of apology for his little indiscretions. The nation of vacuous feelgooders, will then forgive him, with the full approval of the media. We will lose sight of all the real issues immeditely. Filegate, Travelgate, dead associates, coverups, sold influence, Foreign intervention through campaign financing, et al.

The sheeple will feel good about their forgiving heart. In reality it is their 4WD Yuppier cars they seek to protect. By week end, Starr and Lewinsky will be vilified. Congress will continue it's inaction, even after the final report.

Markets will rise across the board as this crises is put behind us. As we of course have been told 6000 times in the past weeks, we all desperatetly want to happen.

I am sad for my children. Yet I will continue to speak of things lost. Values, responsibility, truth, family, honesty, genuine debate, and a responsible and free press.


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:32
JIN (Both hangseng and indonesia stocks closed on holidays!) ID#206358:
Heard any news about the speculators will attack on hongkong market tomorrow, ( tuesday ) ?!
see u!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:30
ROR (Mike) ID#412286:
I am a Dem Socialist who was an organizer for Reagan's Kick off campaign in Orange County California in 1984. What I have seen happen is American Conservatism since then betray liberty EXCEPT FOR WEALTH. If wealth is a requirement of freedom then we dont live in a free society. I have many friends in France and Germany and the situation of the average person there compared to her is embarrasing. Then we bailout the investorsa with taxpayers money. Further, why do you think Lat Am mkts flourished while the residents did not. Brady Bonds..WE back all lat debt through this crap to keep econ stability in these countries so companies can move there and exploit cheap labor. YOU KNOW WHAT I LOVE IS THE NON REPORTING OF THE LATIN AM SITUATION...GUESS WHOSE ON THE TAB so that the corps could go there..If I were Rubin I'd reasign too. Remember BRADY BONDS wake up. Lat Am rates only went down because of US backing at Taxpayers Expense AT THE BEHEST OF THE CAPITALIST CORPS AND ENTREPENUERS. this is now unraveling and they are scared to death at revealing the welfare given to underwrite business HEY going to make Social Security hard ta meet. BANKRUPTCY AN ACT OF PATRIOTISM AND FREEDOM!!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:29
BUGal__A (@ Mr. Sheller............Gold Confiscation) ID#259260:
Sadly, I must say that it is no longer within the American spirit to stand up and say enough over losses of freedon and liberty.

When the free world's most important leader, can achieve a 60% approval rating whilst weighing the properly worded spin for telling us what a lying sleazeball he may be, then the people/sheepul have lost their ability to rule themselves.

We, the world's last remaining superpwoer have become weak and complacent.
We may need to come to grief, before we recapture the spirit of our forefathers.

Meanwhile however, the U.S. Govt. is a huge seller of Gold Coins. This through their marketing efforts via the Treasury department. Even in such corrupt times, a confiscation is extremely unlikely.


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:27
Puetz (Stock market crash) ID#222167:
Golden Cheesehead: I feel the same enthusiasm as you do with
the plunging equity markets. I feels good to have put options
in a plunging market. This is the week when a higher degree
of panic develops. The 1st wave of panic ended with the Aug. 4
plunge. Another wave of panic -- larger than the 1st should
develop this week. The final wave of panic -- and the
greatest panic -- should take place throughout September.

I just hope the markets can hold up enough to purchase one
final batch of S&P put options tomorrow morning.

Also, give my the story on Oakland-Green Bay today.


Steve Puetz

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:27
Spock (Gold Steady but outlook remains bleak.) ID#210114:

Gold price steadies but
outlook remains bleak

By Stephen Wyatt

Gold managed to scramble up from near its 18-year lows
in trading late last week but remained under constant
pressure from the weak yen, slumping Indian rupee, rising
concern that China could devalue the yuan and renewed
fears of central bank selling.

It was the sharply weaker yen that initially knocked the
gold market to its lowest level for seven months. A
weaker yen prompted fears of a further slowdown in
demand for gold from Asia.

Already gold demand has slumped in east Asia, a region
that traditionally consumes about 20 per cent of the
world's gold.

Taiwan Finance Ministry figures released last week
showed a 45.3 per cent collapse in Taiwanese bullion
demand in the first seven months of this year, with gold
imports in July 83 per cent lower than in July last year.

The same story applies to Japan. Japanese gold imports
for the first six months of the year totalled 33.16 tonnes,
compared with 70.92 tonnes for the corresponding
period last year, a fall of 52 per cent year-on-year.

The yen did recover, however, from its eight-year lows,
and so did gold. But just.

After falling to within $US4/oz of its 18-year lows of
$US278 in January, it finished the week trading around
$US284/oz. A very dead cat type bounce.

One thing going for gold at the moment is that it has fallen
so far so fast and the market is short. In other words,
gold's market internals are such that, despite negative
fundamentals, its downward momentum has now slowed.

The fact that the funds are already very short suggests
that the downside from here should be limited, said Mr
Angus MacMillan, research manager at Billiton Metals, a
London-based metals trading group.

Also, the US dollar gold price is below marginal cost, so
producers are much less willing to forward sell gold at
current US dollar price levels.

But Mr MacMillan added that equally, there appears to
be little upside potential in the near term.

Certainly, analysts' projections that the yen is on its way
to ¥150 to the US dollar, rather than ¥140, is a negative
for gold.

So is the fall in the Indian rupee. Last week, it fell to a
historic low against the US dollar of 43.35 rupee. And
because India is the world's biggest consumer of gold,
this is a major factor limiting gold's upside.

Central banks, the holders of a third of the gold ever
mined and the major factor behind the 33 per cent fall in
the US dollar gold price over the past two years, are also
back in the news.

Rumours that Venezuela's central bank ( later denied by
the bank ) had sold 1.66 million ounces of gold were
followed by confirmed reports that the National Bank of
Poland had bought gold. This purchase was confirmed
but quantities were not.

The World Gold Council said Polish reserves rose by 2.4
million ounces ( 74.5 tonnes ) in May. But this did little to
push gold prices higher.

On Friday, Swiss sources were saying that Russia would
be selling 200 tonnes ( a gold swap ) of gold early this
week. Russia holds 501 tonnes of gold.

Given Russia's current economic and currency fragility, a
swap could be justified on the basis of dire need for hard
currency, said Mr Kamal Naqvi, precious metals analyst
with the Macquarie Bank group.

But who knows, said Mr Ted Arnold, of Merrill Lynch,
who recently forecast gold over the next five years to
trade a range between $US200/oz and $US300/oz.

Mr Naqvi said: The key central bank issue remains the
gold reserves of EMU members and the level of control
the European Central Bank adopts.

The ECB is not expected to address this issue until
October at the earliest.

To date, the ECB has said that gold will comprise 15 per
cent of its total reserves. This puts the ECB's initial gold
holdings at 5.925 billion ECUs or, if gold is valued at say
$US250/oz, 812 tonnes of gold. This leaves 11,806
tonnes in EMU-member central bank vaults. It is a lot of
gold that has a massive opportunity cost.

If gold is now more of a commodity than a currency, if it
is de-monetising like silver did this time last century, then
this central bank gold will eventually drip out of central
bank vaults, just as silver did.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:26
robnoel__A (Unlike Mike I have not seen a good steak since I left Africa however I have had a few Bass Ales in ) ID#411112:

the Arizona sun....something I've been
meaning to post for a while about Gold and
its role in the big sceam of most
know I'am a dealer in physical metal I do not
believe in paper gold only the real
thing...Gold is not hard to understand ...its
is insurance..pure and simple...because it is
insurance most CPA's Acountants etc. recomend
you hold between 5/20% of your investment
dollar in a hard asset that you
control...just the same as having a cash
reserve of 3/6 months in the event you lose
your job or some other problem
arises.....folks that put everything into
gold or gold stocks are nuts.....lets look at
the insurance side because gold is the
cheapest insurance money can buy for
example.....if $9000.00 is 10% of your
investment dollar you could buy 30 1 oz US
Eagles.....we are now facing a problem we
know is 16 months one has a clue
whats going to happen....lets say nothing
happens and on Jan 2nd we all look like fools
and gold is trading at production cost of
$250.00 you then sell your gold for a
$2500.00 capital lose ( yes its tax
deductable ) that means it cost you $2500 for
16 months of piece of mind...then again gold
could be where it is right now and your lose

would not matter however you have had
insurance for 16 months for free....or the
SH#T could hit the fan and gold soars to
$3000.00 per oz bingo JACKPOT....remember the
KISS formula keep it simple stupid

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:26
Spock (Beaming in.....) ID#210114:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:24
BUGal__A (@ Mr. Kolorado speak the truth) ID#259260:
Your 18:52 was well spoken. Many here seem to believe that a stock market crash is imminent. This is a remote possibility. Infusions of liquidity from Govt. sources will forestall a crash whenever FEAR appears to be winning it's struggle with GREED.

In the interim, we will see this buy the dip mentality continue as you so rightly pointed out. In previous stock market crashes, we did not have billions flowing monthly into the market from baby boom 401K plans.

Also, the U.S. economy remains very strong. Foreign investment dollars will continue to flow to U.S. shores.


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:23
Mike Sheller (BUGal) ID#347447:
I think the point is not how big or small a profit government was kind enough to allow citizens when it confiscated personal property like gold. It is the act of confiscation of something like GOLD that is the horror here. Some kitcoites will forgive me, but I can even understand a debate about guns ( I stand for the right to own 'em, so don't shoot ) because they are at least highly dangerous objects in and of themselves. But gold coins? Bars? The confiscation of these items is true barbarism and an admission of being unfit to govern. How sad that we do not simply recognize that fact, and do not vow to stand against this ugly crime if it were to ever threaten us again. There ARE some things worth fomenting rebellion over. Often they are seeming little perhaps tea? Is not gold and what it stands for worth more?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:21
Bully Beef (Wish I had something to add. Just to say, ROR you are persistant and that in the ) ID#259282:
political spectrum I am closer to you than many here.Not that it means anything.I don't think people honestly can get past all the bad propaganda they have had associated with the word socialist. You see I was brought up to believe that anarchy= bad terrible =chaos. Whereas when I got an education I learned that its real meaning is simply without government which many here consider a good thing. Kitco is full of anarchists.
Anyhow... GO GOLD... Go to bed!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:17
BUGal__A (@ Mr. Cheesehead) ID#259260:
I'm curious why you seem to be cheering a Japanese market downturn. It would seem to me that this would bode poorly for the Yen, and thus also bode poorly for the POG tomorrow.

Soon the Japanese will be freely investing the bulk of their funds in the U.S. Equities and Bond market. This also bodes poorly for the Yen and POG. It is also one of many reasons that we will not see the all out crash in U.S. market at this time.

Thank you OldGold for reply. We agree, crash will come but not yet.


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:15
Charles Keeling (@ Golden Cheesehead-----Re Give em hell) ID#344225:
I appreciate your gung ho give em hell attitude.
Hang in there and keep calling em like you see em.

OALAHEHO....You have a right to yours.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:14
14,950!! Gettin' my Nikkei quotes off Yahoo finance international.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:12
BUGal__A (@ Mr. Mozel, Gold confiscation) ID#259260:
I appreciated your early AM observations regarding the unlikelyhood fo Gold confiscation. On this we do agree.

One minor point I would argue. You stated that the U.S. Govt. paid U.S dollars for Gold, at a slight increase thus allowing a small profit for those turning in their Gold above the $26.00 exchange rate.

While this is true, is it not also true that the U.S. Govt. then turned around and revalued Gold at $35.00 an ounce, thus reaping the benefit of a huge increase in value, in percentage terms. An increase which was not passed on to those who turned in their Gold?


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:11
Bill2j (@Kolorado) ID#259400:
Egads, a thinking man on Kitco. Kolorado, I have not seen your posts in the past so I assume you are indeed a lurker. The long and short of it is I don't know any more than any one else does for sure about the way things are going to go but I think a lot of Kitcoites are going to be astounded at the way it does go.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:11
Where's the NIKKEI PPT?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:11
OLD GOLD () ID#242325:
I am not as bearish as KASS. I see a 25-30% drop in the market and a recession next year. Fed will lower rates to head off a total disaster. But wanted to point out that JP, Puetz, and Prechter are not the only super bears extant today.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:10
tsclaw (@GOLDEN CHEEZEHEAD) ID#327123:
`What site are you getting Asia opening markets from? Bloomberg has't updated yet for the opening

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:09
Mike Sheller (ROR) ID#347447:
That supposed old saying about conservatives is almost as disgusting as finding out you're eating cats n' dogs in your steak. It's philosophical, sociopathic chickensh*t, is what that saying is.

I am not a conservative. They are too confused, muddled, and liberal for me. I am a g*damn libertarian laissez faire reactionary, is what I am. But my concept of maximum freedom, for myself and my brother and sister citizen, is because I respect my fellow human being, not patronize him/her. I would prefer to live in a society that functions on maximum respect. You are confusing reason and respect in social organization with charity. There is nothing to prevent liberals conservatives, socialists or communists, for that matter, from pooling their own resources to help whomever they choose. You are free to feed the poor, to share with them, to offer them your home. Are you doing that? To imply that this ugly thought, of glee in another human being's misery, is the goal or the fuel of thinking in conservatives, or anyone other than your own, is a cruel and ignorant injustice. Even in my most vitriolic posts vs liberals ( as WW would attest were he still around ) I have accepted that they are motivated by some kind of desire to improve the human condition. It is one thing to call another misguided in their political philosophy. It is quite a more serious thing to call them purposely cruel. Save that for the obvious horror that will come when the seams of society start to split, as they do every so often. The conservatives you pillory are pussycats, to whom you will run for their strength and discipline as allies, when the real monsters surface again. For one so solicitous of the dignity of others, methinks you play too lightly with human values and human lives you obviously know little about.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:08
ROR (The decimation of) ID#412286:
the financial mkts is a Democratic Socialist Hope as justice will arise therefrom. Go Hope Go!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:08
BUGal__A (@ Old Gold....Kass article) ID#259260:
Do you share Mr. Kass's views? It would seem he is quite the pessimist. Now do you not see differences between his 1929 comparisons and today's market? It would seem to me that the DOW juggernaut has not yet met it's iceburg. IMHO we have one more push left in this U.S. behemouth before it falls on hard times.


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:06

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:06
OLD GOLD () ID#242325:
Cheesehead: The Nikkei close will be far more significant than the opening.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:06
ROR (Bankruptcy) ID#412286:
given how the govt is willing to bailout big US BANKS and other investors with public money from bad investments they WILLING MADE makes personal bankruptcy under the circumstances a patriotic act as it weakens the ability to publically underwrite Corporate bad decisions by the taxpayers. GO BANKRUPT and the truly BANKRUPT will suffer. No taxes no ticki for investments overseas..let em fail let the red ink flow. American taxpayers are not responsible to protect capital anywhere unless capital pays us big time. Earl are you a corporatist welfarist dont you feel guilty helping the grossly undeserving rich.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:05
a.j. (Does any one have the url for the page where it delineates the Publc Law passed by Congress in 1976 ) ID#257136:
ending the National Emergency and thereby eliminating the need for any executive orders or other power grabbing devices?
I will be most appreciative if it can be re--posted!


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:05
OLD GOLD (ROR) ID#242325:
Rignt on! Isn't it interesting that so many people who are far from ultra rich rush to defend the ultra rich at every opportunity. Shows how effective media brainwashing can be.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:04
BUGal__A (Gold's popularity rising) ID#259260:
Pardon if this has been posted previously.

Latest Treasury figures indicate a doubling of Gold coin American Eagle sales in the past year. This year, sales will be well over a million ounces and a new record since the program began.

A million ounces may be a drop in the proverbial Gold market bucket, but consider the shift in the attitude of the mass psychology, indicated by these numbers. Can a turn in the overall market be too far off?


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:03

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 20:02
OLD GOLD (Coming Bull Market in Cash) ID#242325:

Douglas Kass: The Coming Bull Market for Cash

By Douglas Kass
Special to

Despite the market's many attempts to rally since the recent downturn, and
despite the healthy debate about the market's direction, I believe that the
great bear market of 1998-2000 has already started and we will have a
mini-depression in 2000.

Many of you who know me understand that I have a proclivity toward
negativity. The Wall Street Journal dubbed me the Bear of Boca earlier
this decade. But I believe the bullish tones that have so dogged the bears
for these past several years are starting to fade.

Most of Asia is already in depression. The current unemployment rate of
4.1% in Japan ( an all-time high ) would be equivalent to a 20% rate in the
U.S. The Japanese banks have $1 trillion in bad loans. Chinese banks have
substantial amounts of bad loans. The weakness in Asian currencies is
already affecting the profits of multinationals in the U.S.

The Asian Flu is infecting economies from Vancouver to Buenos Aires to
Moscow. France is already in a depression. It has a true unemployment rate
of nearly 30%. Then there's the declining price of oil. Further drops in
oil prices would put enormous financial pressure on the already ailing
economies of Russia, Indonesia, Venezuela and possibly Mexico.

There is also a derivatives problem. There is an estimated $50 trillion
outstanding worldwide in derivative contracts written by banks ( half by
U.S. banks ) . About 40% of derivatives written by U.S. banks are for Asian
customers. More importantly, the 20 largest banks in the U.S. have equity
capital of $250 billion but a derivative credit risk exposure of $370
billion. This is a disaster waiting to happen.

Valuations on stocks are ridiculously unprecedented. Price-to-earnings
ratios are at incredibly high levels. Old valuation measures, such as the
dividend yield, are miles from historical levels. Speculation is high --
higher, in my opinion, than the speculative heights reached in 1929.
Household involvement in the market is heavier, with some 50 million
persons active in stock trading and investing in mutual funds. There are
almost 5 million speculators trading online for $10 or less a trade. A
$10 ticket is a great lure for compulsive gamblers.

The massive involvement in this market is breathtaking. I recently met a
young chap in Boca Raton whose father is a cardiologist. His dad comes home
lunchtime and trades options for an hour. A few months ago, a friend took
me to a public trading parlor in Florida. There were 25 traders sitting
in front of computer terminals. My childhood friend, a heart surgeon, is
playing the market even though he isn't clear what a P/E ratio means.

I know people in today's market dislike comparisons to 1929. But such
comparisons are almost eerie. Back then shoeshine boys and taxi drivers
gave tips to customers instead of the other way around. Expectations of
stock market profit are very high. Fear of loss is very low.

The party's over and either nobody knows it or wants it to be over. Or both.

The best top-down economic forecaster in the country I know ( not a
professional economist by trade ) thinks we are about ready to have an
old-fashioned capital goods recession later this year, or early next. I
agree and predict we will be in a recession by year's end.

U.S. corporate-profit growth has slowed dramatically. Multinationals like
Coca-Cola ( KONYSE ) , McDonalds ( MCDNYSE ) , Gillette ( GNYSE ) and American
Express ( AXPNYSE ) ( Warren Buffett's Fab Four ) are going to have their
earnings severely reduced by unfavorable currency translation owing to the
super-strong U.S. dollar. Earnings on growth stocks are overstated anyway.
If companies like Microsoft ( MSFTNasdaq ) , Dell Computer ( DELLNasdaq ) and
Cisco ( CSCONasdaq ) properly accounted for stock options ( which all their
employees get in lieu of salary increases and cash bonuses ) , their reported
earnings would be reduced by between 60% to 80%, according to my calculations.

In the great Bear Market of 1973-74 ( the Yom Kippur War/Watergate bear
market ) the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 48%, but some of the Nifty 50
one-decision stocks of that day -- Polaroid ( PRDNYSE ) , 3M ( MMMNYSE ) and
Avon Products ( AVPNYSE ) -- plunged by 90%.

Almost all the technical and sentiment indicators I look at have been
flashing major sell signals over the last three months odd-lots, the OEX
put/call ratios, the equity put/call ratios, mutual fund cash, Lowry's
Buying/Selling Power lines, breadth divergence, new highs/new lows, volume
patters, advance/decline and up volume/down volume Moving Averages, TICKS,
Dow Theory signals, market reactions to good and bad news, investment
advisor sentiment, etc.

The thin-reed indicators are all there, too

Citicorp ( CCINYSE ) and Travelers ( TRVNYSE ) merger announcement of April 4
( breadth topped out on the New York Stock Exchange the day before ) .

Some 12,000 people converge on Berkshire Hathaway's ( BRKNYSE ) annual
meeting in Omaha.

Abby Cohen, the bullish strategist at Goldman, on the cover of Business
Week in early May.

Goldman Sachs announces its plans to go public.

Market commentator Joe Granville, talking on CNBC in May, calling for the
mother of all bull markets ( 14000 by 1999 ) .

Jack Grubman, a telecommunications analyst, receiving a $25 million
compensation package, according to published reports.

And then there is President Clinton. Equities rarely fare well when the
president is under attack. Again, witness the 1973-74 bear market.

This is going to be a long, deep, multi-legged bear market. The OTC market
has already experienced its first downleg. The first leg down on the Dow
started June 10 when Alan Greenspan gave his bullish testimony to Congress
and implied interest rates would not be raised at the June 30th meeting of
the Fed Open Market Committee.

The Great Bear Market will hit bottom in the first quarter of the year
2000, with the economic and financial distress caused by the Year 2000
problem. The DJIA will have dropped by three-quarters by the first quarter
of that year from its high of 9400. The Nasdaq Composite Index will have
dropped by a similar amount by then.

I predict that 90% of the stockbrokers now practicing will be out of a job
by Jan. 1, 2000. The overall unemployment rate will rise to approximately
15%, a mini-depression number. Yes, these are extreme views.

How can I be so certain about all of this? One final reason Recently, a
majority of my limited partners withdrew their capital from Kass Partners,
L.P., my short fund, causing me to close the partnership!


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 19:59
(Gold, Silver, DOW...This week) ID#205188:
It is my opinion we'll see a rise in all three, albeit a modest one.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 19:57
skinny (6 pac) ID#28994:
Know what your talking about..... But after you make that 1 million $ it is only worth 500 thousand. If you go south,har har.
I am told that 95% of you socialist swine live within 100 miles of the American border. ( gonna have to keep an eye on yu eh )
Talk at u later O Six Pac...... Wife who is far too young and must be obeyed needs computer to play bridge.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 19:57
chas (Gianni Dioro re Jay Gould) ID#344259:
First, the silver cup. If you really want one, I'll find it. Next, re Jay Gould, you are right, but to answer your question, the dollar bills being used were U.S. Notes authorized by Lincoln which were obligations of the Treasury without any reference to convertiblility to gold. The $20.67/oz is correct for gold certificates. To go thru the math, a dollar's worth of gold for a gold certificate was 25.8 grains .900 fine. This was 23.22 grains 999. Divide 20.67 by 480 ( grains per oz ) you get $.04306 /grain. Multiply this by 25.8 and it's $1.111. 90% of this is $.9999. The only way to do this conversion with the bank etc is with a gold certificate. The greenback was fiat currency. Why the market in gold was quoted in this unit of account, has to be researched. Probably because the farmer was paid that way and the big market for grain was overseas and the O/S importer had an advantage when the POG rose in greenbacks. I am still working on this. Hope this helps

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 19:54
Envy (From CNN World News) ID#219363:
Floodwater Inundates 1,217 Wells in Daqing Oilfield


DAQING ( Aug. 16 ) XINHUA - Floodwater has inundated 1,217 oil wells at northeast China's Daqing Oilfield, China's largest, whose annual output accounts for half of the country's total. Of the inundated wells, 527 wells were forced to close. Floods reduced Daqing's oil output by 6,821 tons between August 12-16. With more than 25,000 oil wells, Daqing produced 60.9 million tons of oil in 1997. Most of the wells are now operating normally.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 19:53
ROR (Earl) ID#412286:
WHY DO YOU HATE JUSTICE AND FORGIVENESS. The old saying is true...a conservative cant enjoy his meal unless he/she knows someone is starving..Right now there are alot of people starving so the conservatives should be worried that they dont justly provide the feed.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 19:45
Mike Sheller (Kitco Konvulsions) ID#347447:
Good Lord! I just come back from a sumptuous real estate corporation board luncheon at Peter Luger's, one of the best steakhouses in New York, and what do I find at Kitco? That incredible rare porterhouse I just et was really cats n' dogs and chickensh*t! And my wife even brought some meaty bones back for Pepi. That makes him a freakin' cannibal!!!

I really should stay away from this site. If I'm bullish and I surf in, I get convinced to be bearish in about 20 minutes. If I'm bearish when I surf in, I get a case of the bull's b*lls in about 5. Now, one of the few pleasures I have LEFT in life - a good steak - is totally disgusting to me. As for chicken, I never liked the way they looked before they got cooked anyhow. Dirty little birds.

Next thing you know they'll be telling you Martinis are no good for you. I'll need 3 of 'em now, to wash that offensive offal I et out of my system. Hmmm...maybe this chickensh*t thing ain't so bad afterall....

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 19:41
EJ (Why Gold and Silver will rise in poplularity) ID#45173:
US banks will begin to pay the price of over-eager loaning to individuals and corporations with insufficient reserves to support them through a deflation. Many defaults will lead to a banking crisis as in the 1980s but far worse. At the same time, the government will have to begin finding buyers for the US Treasuries that foreign nations are selling. The dollar will come under heavy attack. This will limit the ability of the government to rescue the banks. With no other currencies surviving as safe stores of value, gold and poor man's gold, silver, will begin to be used as an alternative to currency reserves until one currency establishes itself as the new reserve currency.


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 19:37
Mike Sheller (kolorado and all) ID#347447:
KOLORADO makes a very good point about the stock market being able to swallow a 25% correction and keep going. Half the overall list has already undergone a 20% correction, and new lows versus new highs are shouting bottom. The 2 decade rise from 1949 to 1966 underwent 2 corrections of roughly 30% each before making marginal new highs in 1972 and then tanking for the 50% count from 1973 to 1975. THAT is when the asset inversion that carried gold into the stratosphere actually began. Too many people expect either a roaring bull or a monster crash. Tho time has been telescoped dramatically these days, the crowd may be unprepared for one of the most intriguing market phenomena of all - the BIG TOP. Hurry, Hurry. Getcha cotton candy, the show is about to begin.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 19:36
gunrunner (Dang . . . ) ID#429121:
I was out chasing 'tang all weekend and missed some good firearms discussions. ( Not to mention a few good conspircy theories... ) Oh well, priorities you know...

A 21 gun salute to all of you Kitco firearm advocates. Keep the faith.

My utmost respect to those of you with differing opinions. May we all maintain some semblance of freedom that will allow us to continue expressing our views.

My sympathies to those of you whose governments no longer trusts you to own them.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 19:34
Bingo (Aurator and Auric...going down the perilous path of health risks coming our way...) ID#263254:
Bring on the Plague, Anthrax, Ebola, baby...we got it covered.
Get out your soldering guns and get to work..I'd say, with what's coming don't have anything to lose. But seriously, this technology is far from new, however it has been very effectively suppressed. Cheers! and good health to all in the new millenium... ( the following articles only scratch the surface ) -

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 19:32
6pak (skinny @ 18:38 ) ID#335190:
All is well, with the 50 cent peso. We get many jobs, say government/corporations, we will be competitive eh! We the people, of the tundra, is on the cheap, by gar !
Take Care

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 19:32
EJ (Stock Trader's Week in Hell) ID#45173:
This will be a significantly bad week for stocks. Fear and loathing everywhere. If the yen gets hammered early tonight and the Nikkei closes under 15,000, the DOW will take a vicious beating. If the Nikkei continues down during the week from 15,000 to the 14,500 area, expect the DOW to end the week under 8000.

Notice they now go down together. Japanese capital is no longer flowing out of Japanese equity markets into the US equities markets, or US real estate, or US Treasuries.

Amazing how long this took to build up and how quickly it's unravelling.


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 19:23
Earl (ROR:) ID#227238:
By golly, the weekend wouldn't be complete without the latest from the Demo/Soc point of view. I hope you notice that no one argued with that post. ..... The bankruptcy thingy is another matter but it ain't worth pursuing. ...... A man who CHOOSES to sell forward his productive capacity has no beef coming about usury. It was his choice and the rest of us are under no obligation to bail him out. ..... and what the hell, all those bankruptcies provide you with a nice living. Yes?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 19:15
skinny (Sam) ID#28994:
You are so right. and possibly a little wrong......... How much does film cost for a digital camera...How much does it cost to develop it.. ZERO
Henry has a lot of stock to unload...Bought a Nikon zoom there a few years ago , cheap with U.S.A. $

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 19:11
Donald (Nikkei 15,100 seen as a crucial level; downward spiral if broken.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 19:04
Donald (DEFLATION in the U.K.; business can't raise prices, workers pay raises decreasing.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 19:03
sam__A (@Squirrel re your 17:39 - The threat of digital photography?) ID#284275:

I am a tecky and I used to think like this too. So I did some market research; I went down to my local camera store ( the biggest one in town - Henry's for those in T.O. ) and asked what he thought. Well, digital cameras accounted for less than one percent of new camera sales, and all of this was in the high end. But this isn't the figure to watch for when estimating film consumption. For this, you need to look at the installed base. The installed base of silver-based cameras is something like 100,000 times greater than that of digital cameras. To significantly put a dent in this you'd need new sales of digital cameras to at least be greater than 1%, which it isn't.

I agree, one day these new-fangled cameras will supplant silver-based cameras. But this day, using simple arithmatic, is a long way off. And with silver at 5 bucks, there is certainly no incentive to hasten this day.

cheers from the land of traffic, fish and many unfinished bridges.


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:55
SWP1 (@ Mozel Please try agin) ID#286224:
Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:28
mozel ( @oris ) ID#153102:
If Chinese invade, waste everything. Spread the deep sh*t around. Itried to post the real sh*t, but got censored.

What got cut? Where's you see it? Try posting again please.


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:55
Donald (Columbian rebels attack gold mine; kill 5, steal 10 kilos.) ID#26793:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:52
kolorado__A (@Bill2j) ID#272206:

I’m basically a lurker here for the past 2 years, but I post every now and then and I liked your question to Mike Sheller. I am also heavily invested in precious metals paper and have suffered heavy losses. I recently watched in horror as SSO ( SSRIF ) crashed and burned. I don’t think that dog ‘ll ever hunt again. My take on the DOW and POG is this: The bull market in stocks is not over yet. The average American baby boomer is sold hook, line and sinker on the stock broker buy the dips paradigm. Foreign money will stay in the US because there is no other healthy market. There is so much loose cash around that a 25% DOW correction would not dry it up. ( I realize many stocks have already corrected by 30% or more ) . US corporations will eek out enough profits to keep the ball rolling until Y2K. Asia will calm down by 1999 because cash will materialize out of thin air ( fiat currency which is the same thing ) to bail out their currencies. Remember, the G7 is not an organization of weak governments but a proxy for many of the multinationals that already run the world economies. What is fiat currency for if not to sustain the multinationals who need political stability in the emerging markets to sustain their own profits. I travel to Mexico and observe many of the border plants owned by US medical companies there. Their operations have less than ½ the overhead of the US counteparts. And the workers like it, take home their modest pay and spend it on goods sold by the multinationals. There are 250,000 jobs in Juarez alone as the result of these border plants. DO YOU THINK THIS IS GOING TO STOP JUST BECAUSE CURRENCIES ARE UNSTABLE? OR BECAUSE CLINTON IS A LIAR? Remember how quickly Mexico was bailed out in ’94. Methinks the Asian crisis will subside next year and inflation will start up in earnest. All of that fiat cash will start chasing commodities as soon as the factories in Asia fire back up. Whether the gold mines will stay solvent until then I don't know.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:51
skinny (Envy 18.44) ID#28994:
They have very few lawyers and very few repeat offenders.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:44
Envy (Iraqi News) ID#219363:
Odai Hussein, the son of the Iraqi leader, today announced that an investigation was underway regarding alledged mis-conduct of the military in their dealings with the citizens of Iraq. Pending the completion of the investigation, a military hearing is anticipated.

Oh, wait, that's not what really happened ...

Odai Hussein, the son of the Iraqi leader, ordered six members of an elite commando unit who used their positions to rob people be punished by having a hand amputated, an Iraqi newspaper reported Saturday.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:44
ROR (Definitions) ID#412286:
Welfare dependent--A citizens desire for any help from the government during economic misfortune even though they have paid taxes or actually paid for the program like Social Security.

Profit--Something that needs to be increased at all costs to enrich executives as part of stock option arrangements. Firing employees is now the preferred way of achieving this objective..Pat explanation overseas competition.

Personal Responsibility--A euphemistic term applicable to working citizens who should not insist on high cost benefits or pensions from either govt or their employer. This however, emphatically does not apply to overseas investments or any investment which goes bad for major investors. Here the citizen is to coalesce his/her interest with the Corporatist and understand how this is in the Nation's best interest. A Bull market in stocks helps along with CNBC like hype with Wall St's Help.

Communist/Socialist--Anyone who even suggests that citizens should derive any benefit from the taxes they pay in the form of the entitlements promised in return for payment. By definition a Communist/Socialist also lacks personal responsibility..see above.

Reform--this is a term used on a worlwide basis. It is very clever as most people think of reform as a good thing. Its real meaning is disempower workers, lower social safety nets so that corporations can increase profitability by locating in the new host country. The descriptions under profit and welfare work well in underlining the spirit of reform.

Ensuring that reform continues and the markets stabalized---Using the resources of the ciitzens of the developed countries who are being encouraged to embrace personal responsibility to protect the bad investments and loans by corporations and others in countries where reform is being pursued so that it doesnt fall back into the communist socialist state where reform fails and the people do not exercise personal responsibility.

Financial Markets---GOD

Corporation/entrepeneur---Angel, saint take your pick.

Laid off worker due to overseas job placement or any one whose economic fortunes turn negative as a result of reform and the pursuit of profit---LOSER

Family Values--not if you complain about your family's economic situation. See Communist/SocialisT above and profit.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:38
skinny (6 pac) ID#28994:
How's the 50 cent peso doing up on the tundra.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:35
Gianni Dioro__A (Chas- Jay Gould's Gold Corner) ID#384350:
Charlie, Hoskins talks briefly about Jay Gould in War Cycles Peace Cycles. He says that Gould and his partners ( notably Jim Fisk ) attempted to corner the Gold market where shorts had used 90-95% leverage to sell more Gold on margin than what was readily available for sale. When the shorts were forced to cover they had to pay whatever price Jay Gould demanded, sometimes well over $1000/oz.

Then there were rumours that the Govt was going to sell its gold onto the market. A scared Gould went to see President Grant who was uncommitted. However, Gould mischievously led everyone to believe that Grant was in Gould's pocket. The shorts panicked and tried to liquidate their positions. It was at this time that Gould secretly closed out his positions and exited the game, without telling his partners. Jim Fisk got ruined.

What I consider strange is that I thought dollar bills were convertible into gold. I thought there was a gold window with a redemption value of $20.67.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:34
JP (Why is the stock market such a good forecasting tool ?) ID#253153:
The stock market has a way of discounting events many months ahead of time. Why ? Because the wealthy have their own private channels of information about what is most likely to come and they act , accordingly, well in advance of coming events. That is why the public is often dumbfounded because the market doesn't act the way that some of the newspapers and market services say that it should. Thus, let face it, we are active participants in quite a game. A game that is going to strip us all of our belongings if we don't watch out. A slump in the stock market is the final result of excessive speculation, a time when the general public has been overly optimistic. In a primary bear market , as now, the path of least resistance is down,. As an investor , the best part of experience is the ability to accept the inevitable without too much emotional stress. I would wate no effort in trying to stop what is going to happen anyway. Personal investments seldom follow the DJIA exactly, not generally. The BEAR has a way of clobbering selected stocks at various times , all of which leads to emotional stress. prepare yourself by thinking along these lines.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:33
6pak (Mad-Cow @ Industrial Farmer's Chicken Manure $15 ton cheap & Alfalfa $125 cost eh!ton) ID#335190:
Bargain breakfast.

Agriculture experts say a slew of new and questionable methods of fattening cattle are being employed by farmers. To trim costs, many farmers add a variety of waste substances to their livestock and poultry feed--and no one is making sure they are doing so safely. Chicken manure in particular, which costs from $15 to $45 a ton in comparison with up to $125 a ton for alfalfa, is increasingly used as feed by cattle farmers despite possible health risks to consumers. In regions with large poultry operations, such as California, the South, and the mid-Atlantic, more and more farmers are turning to chicken manure as a cheaper alternative to grains and hay.

Lamar Carter is one such cattle farmer. Carter recently purchased 745 tons of litter scooped from the floors of local chicken houses, stacking it 12 feet high on his farm near Dardanelle, Ark. After allowing the protein-rich excrement to heat up for seven to 10 days, Carter mixes it with smaller amounts of soybean bran, and feeds this fecal slumgullion to his 800 head of cattle. My cows are fat as butterballs, Carter says. If I didn't have chicken litter, I'd have to sell half my herd. Other feed's too expensive.

Health officials are not as enthusiastic. Chicken manure often contains campylobacter and salmonella bacteria, which can cause disease in humans, as well as intestinal parasites, veterinary drug residues, and toxic heavy metals such as arsenic, lead, cadmium, and mercury. These bacteria and toxins are passed on to the cattle and can be cycled to humans who eat beef contaminated by feces during slaughter. A scientific paper scheduled for publication this fall in the journal Preventive Medicine points to the potential dangers of recycling chicken waste to cattle.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta estimates there may be as many as 80 million incidences of food-borne illness each year in the United States, and about 9,000 deaths. Salmonella accounts for 4 million cases, of which 500 to 1,000 are fatal. Campylobacter, which causes acute gastroenteritis, afflicts between 4 million and 6 million people annually, killing about 100. E. coli, the bacteria that was found in the tainted Hudson Foods beef, causes up to 250 fatalities and triggers serious illness in up to 20,000 people annually. At least 17 people have fallen ill from eating contaminated Hudson beef.

In addition, some 40 billion pounds a year of slaughterhouse wastes like blood, bone, and viscera, as well as the remains of millions of euthanized cats and dogs passed along by veterinarians and animal shelters, are rendered annually into livestock feed--in the process turning cattle and hogs, which are natural herbivores, into unwitting carnivores.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:28
mozel (@oris) ID#153102:
If Chinese invade, waste everything. Spread the deep sh*t around. Itried to post the real sh*t, but got censored.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:24
oris (Grizz, sorry interwiev=interview) ID#238422:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:22
mozel (@Somebody Asked Who Wins In A Depression.) ID#153102:
I didn't have it in me to tell you, but it's lawyers. Filing bankruptcies. And doing probate for suicides. Who were stupid enough to go to lawyers for a will.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:20
oris (Grizz) ID#238422:
If Chinese invade, do not waste your Gold, Silver or ammo...
Congress will vote to allocate
additional funds for resolution of problem...
Also, media will interwiev Chinese invaders to death.
If not media, then lawyers sue them to death...
If not lawyers, then some brave girl performs the trick
on the top Chinese Commander, Commander will resign and
invaders will withdraw with their tales between their legs...
If top Chinese Commander happens to be not sexually active,
then it's time to offer them Gold. If they refuse to accept
the Gold ( or Silver ) , then all of us, goldbugs, are in
deep sh*t...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:17
mozel (@ROR) ID#153102:
Hell, let's cancel everything and start over. Without lawyers.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:17
Gianni Dioro__A (Squirrel, Colloidal Silver Treatments) ID#384350:
Silver is said to have medicinal purposes. I'm still trying to find me a Silver cup to drink from.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:15
ROR (WAve of the future in USA) ID#412286:
BANKRUPTCY..lets toughen up the laws on consumers to protect those poor poor banks who didnt know they were making an unsecured loan and had no knowledge of their client...except their client's high interest rate to be paid. The rates are high on credit cards because of THE KNOWN RISK. Free mkts...DUH not for banks they are to get welfare and the public gets screwed. See everyone is socialist your just considered a dead beat or a welfare mother if you want to infringe on the Corporatist protection racket or their share. MARKET DISCIPLINE FOR THE CONSUMER and WELFARE FOR THE RICH ( worldwide thru I ( a ) MF ) ....CAPITALISM 1990S STYLE FEED THE RICH SCREW EVERYONE ELSE BUT MAKE THEM THINK IT IS FOR THE BEST.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:11
mozel (@U.N.) ID#153102:
I think Pataki should propose moving U.N. to Massachusetts. Maybe it will never get there. I'm willing to risk it.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:09
Squirrel (Strat - the rabbit(s) and the ground squirrels) ID#280214:
After the fire they will emerge from their burrows and, after a few rains get the new vegetation going, will have a glorious time. The slate will have been wiped clean and they will have the world to themselves - but only if they had squirreled away enough grub to see them through the lean times until the fresh growth sprouts up.

Sadly though, the tree squirrels will have succumbed - along with their previously arboreal brethern. - Though one never knows, maybe a few of the arboreal crowd also found burrows to hide in and cousins to hide with.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:08
3-cubed (SWISS FRANC) ID#344239:
Last night someone was asking about the gold reserves
for the Swiss Franc. It is a minimum of 40% for every Swiss
Franc in circulation. At the ( 1995 ) gold market price, actual
gold reserves {were} in excess of 150% of currency in circulation

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:00
Squirrel (mozel - maybe some Silver compounds have heretofore unknown medicinal properties) ID#280214:
They could be batteries to provide juice to human chemistry.
Back to reality though
For all sorts of portable electronic devices - the battery is the lead weight holding down the development of phenomenally small devices.
That and data storage.
All the computer components could be the size of thin paperback book
EXCEPT - the power supply ( batteries ) and mass data storage.
Data storage is solvable with technology currently in the labs.
Batteries or other power supplies are holding up the whole show.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 18:00
6pak (cherokee @ USofA Corporate/Government Standards, and you, and your loved one's health) ID#335190:
Sun Aug 16 1998 15:43 cherokee ( )

chicken waste is used as fertilizer for crops that carbo-earth-anouts consume...

awaken peopleo....things are not as you would have them...IF you knew..

************Chicken manure, anyone? *****************

From: jacko ( )
Subject: Chicken manure, anyone?
Date: September 19, 1997 at 12:48:00 EST

*****...Some cattle are fed chicken manure; it's legal.*********

by Michael Mansur
Knight-Ridder Newspapers

KANSAS CITY, Mo. - E. coli was bad enough. Now, Deven Scott has to worry about chicken manure hurting the beef business.

.........Yes, chicken manure.

Scott is executive vice president of the North America Meat Processors Association in Reston, Va. The group's 365 members sell much of the steak and other beef eaten at the nation's fine restaurants and hotels.

And yesterday, Scott was reeling from yet another black eye for beef following the Hudson Foods recall of meat. This one, though, was more disgusting than sickening.

I can't imagine the thought of eating anything that's fed chicken wastes, Scott said.

Wastes have nutritive value

The wastes have some nutritive value, such as protein and calcium. But they also can contain pathogens such as salmonella and campylobacter bacteria, which can cause illness in humans.

Some people may find this unappetizing, McCarty acknowledged, But what we're really talking about is providing nutrients to an organism. It's like putting chicken manure on your tomatoes.

. . . No one finds that unacceptable.

A paper to be published next month in the journal Preventive Medicine will raise questions about the practice of feeding animal wastes to cattle, contending that there has been too little research to determine whether it's actually safe.

There's no law that says it has to be processed properly, Barnard said. And there are farmers who probably don't bother to process it properly. . . . If you're feeding chicken ( manure ) to cattle, then you're asking for trouble.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:57
tolerant1 (Grizz, Namaste', yeah, but I ain't that formal and all...regarding COSCO anybody) ID#373284:
wishing more information on the traitor in Chief can simply type COSCO into any search engine and read the documents for themselves...and there is one heck of a whole lot of I have said before, there will be loss of American lives, directly responsible is the Coward Erect...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:48
JP (Debt implosion to create banking crisis ) ID#253153:
Interest rates today are higher in real terms than in nominal terms because the rate of inflation is so low. These high interest rates are making the dollar stronger, encouraging imports, discouraging exports, and dampening economic activity and inflation. Short term interest rates will now turn now down because the US economy is turning down . So we are beginning to see tremendous surpluses in oil, gas, copper, lumber, sugar and other commodities. This is called deflation. The reason is that the tremendous explosion pf dollar debt that began in the 60s and accelerately greately after Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, is COMING to an end. Domestically, bank loans are leveling off and in the Eurodollar market, loans are shrinking. We are beginning the debt implosion phase. The only exception to this is the federal government. This means defaults and business failures and banking crisis the the governmental authorities will be unable to contain. People are going to need a vehicle to protect themselves against this deflation. A severe financial crisis is about to occur as credit is destroyed and the dollar shortages worsens. There are two ways to protect yourself. One is to have Treasury Bills and cash. The other way , the best way, is to have gold coins and gold mining shares. Gold mining will become the only truly profitable industry when the crisis comes to a head.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:48
strat (Just got this...) ID#93241:
The LAPD, The FBI, and the CIA are all trying to prove that
they are the best at apprehending criminals. The President
decides to give them a test. He releases a rabbit into a
forest and each of them has to catch it.

The CIA goes in. They place animal informants throughout
the forest. They question all plant and mineral witnesses.
After three months of extensive investigations they
conclude that rabbits do not exist.

The FBI goes in. After two weeks with no leads they burn
the forest, killing everything in it, including the rabbit,
and they make no apologies. The rabbit had it coming.

The LAPD goes in. They come out two hours later with a
badly beaten bear. The bear is yelling: Okay! Okay! I'm a
rabbit! I'm a rabbit!'

p.s.-I'm outta here. The fish are a bitin'...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:47
mozel (@Squirrel) ID#153102:
Of the three scenarios you listed, cataclysm, chaos and anarchy, I wonder which was in the mind of W.B.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:46
Grizz (Tolerant1 - Namasté) ID#424394:
( does your screen show the accent over the e like mine does? )

When the Chinese invade or at least send groups of infiltrators
then having a stock of 7.62 x 39 and an AK myself would be fortuitous.
If I should be so lucky as to capture their weapons or ammo in the inevitable firefights or sniper action then I could use either or both myself - unlike having an AR15. Then too, they could use my stuff.

Would they accept bribes of Gold or Silver to leave people alone?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:44
skinny (Gianni Dioro,,,Bill2j) ID#287114:
The wife that is far too young or she that must be obeyed, has a Robotics Palm Pilot. You can carry it in your shirt pocket, I cant believe what she does with that thing. ( whatever it is ) . Small computer of sorts.
The world is changing so fast ,I have machinery in my plant that gets outdated every few years.
I will go with digital cameras as a big retail item within two years, including all depressions,wars, Bill Clinton and other natural disaters.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:39
Squirrel (I guess that tears it for Silver) ID#280214:
If Y2K does not cripple the digital photo development & deployment then Silver is sunk! We have to get Silver back into coinage or come up with some other use for it - such as the batteries that have been mentioned.

Perhaps that also explains why Kodak doesn't own Silver production. The long-term costs of owning such an enterprise combined with a write down of those assets when digital photography debues may be more expensive than just buying Silver as they need it - since that need may be temporary.

Thus we are back to the only hope for Silver ( and Gold ) is worldwide cataclysm, chaos and anarchy.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:38
oris (Blooper, are you hiding something?) ID#238422:
You did not explain your post to me, which was BUT OUT.
Please do not keep me in the dark...What is BUT OUT?

By the way, a couple of days ago you were supportive
of starving people of North Korea, to the degree that
you had nothing against sending them some American food.
Cage Rattler posted some news, it seems starving North
Korea can afford to buy any food they want. Are you Commie?
I think you are...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:35
tolerant1 (Grizz, Namaste' and a gulp at question, Clintler has put these United States) ID#373284:
at tremendous risk...3000 some odd miles...but if they nuke NY I would imagine the world would glow...Clintler personally intervened and forced the deal in Long Beach to go through...AK-47s were seized on a COSCO owned freighter...but Clintler's only mention of the AK-47 is that he wants them gone from American soil...uh huh...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:31
mozel (@strat) ID#153102:
Actually, corporations cannot vote and are not citizens, just persons in law. We live in a country in which the word individual in a statute and on a government form can have the meaning you intended or can mean artificial person, like a corporation is an artificial person. So, anyone with that legal alter ego or artificial person in existence with their name lives on the same tier as G.M., just with considerably lesser means.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:26
Mtn Bear (SE) (Quote without comment:) ID#347267:
Mutual Fund Strategist weekend hotline, Saturday, August 15.
This week saw a fairly significant decline in the major market indices.
The blue-chip S&P 500 Index lost 2.5%, while the over-the-counter
NASDAQ Composite Index dropped 3.1%. The very important breadth
indicators, the New York Stock Exchange advance-decline line and the
number of new 52-week lows, remain exceptionally weak. As of Friday's
closing market data, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite have declined
10.5% and 11.1% respectively from their recent all-time highs. The market
has now reached a level of weakness that can confidently be described as
a strong intermediate correction. Whether we will now see a capitulation
into a bear market, with 20% declines in both of these indices, remains
to be seen. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite remain above their
200-day moving averages -- a measure looked upon by many market analysts
as indicative that the bull market remains in force. However, it would
only take a drop of eleven S&P 500 points and 46 NASDAQ Composite points,
as of Friday's data, to move both indices below their 200-day averages.
Whatever happens -- it is obvious that there is a lot of risk in the
market right now.
Our MIRAT-Rydex Growth Portfolio is 100% invested in Rydex Ursa fund.
This portfolio increased 2.9% during the past week and has increased
12.6% year-to-date. As a reference point the S&P 500 Index is up 9.5%
year-to-date and the average U.S. growth fund is up less than 3.0%.
The current status of our timing models is as follows:
U.S. Growth funds - Sell short;
U.S. Bond funds - A sell signal was generated per Thursday's closing
prices. Friday's closing prices brought a reversal of this signal,
which places this model back on a buy signal. Quick reversals of our
timing models are relatively infrequent; we know of no better
way to manage ongoing market risk. U.S. High Yield Bond funds - Sell;
International Growth funds - Sell; International Bond funds - Sell;
Precious Metals funds - Sell; Asian funds - Sell; European funds - Sell;
Latin American funds - Sell

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:25
Bill2j (@Skinny) ID#260389:
Silver based film will go the way of the dinosaur in five years.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:24
Grizz (Tolerant1 - a most interesting question you may have missed.) ID#431366:
We can hope this is an academic question - but it may not be.
How many ballistic miles is it to Long Island from Long Beach?
And do the serve fortune cookies on those flights?

For those who may miss the importance of Long Beach -
the Chinese have it now - as a west coast base of operations.

And thank you to whomever posted the info or link thereto
that mentioned that Chinese missiles were being shipped to
the west coast for US satellite launches.
( I hate it when I can't remember where I read something. )

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:23
mozel (@North Korea's Counterfeit Expertise) ID#153102:
Boy, Oh boy. The US promises greenbacks to North Korea in return for some nuclear concession. Then doesn't pay. Then M Albright ask the Japanese to ante up and they refuse. Then N Korea develops this sudden expertise in couterfeiting greenbacks to pay for oil. Is it just possible that somebody in USG helped N Korea ? A few bales of treasury paper for printing greenbacks and everything is solved, diplomatically. Nobody has to embarass themselves asking Congress or IMF or anyone else for the greenbacks. Nah. Couldn't happen.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:22
Gianni Dioro__A (Skinny, digital cameras) ID#384350:
You're guess is as good ( or as bad ) as mine. I think that digital camaras won't make inroads for awhile. First like Tolerant1 says for the moment they are too expensive. Second you need to have a computer to use them. I suppose that many people still like to have photos on paper, and so then people would not only need a computer but also a printer, and the quality of prints wouldn't be the same.

Also, Y2k may put a lot of people off computers and digital technology if it gets as bad as some people think.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:20
strat (mozel) ID#93241:
Unfortunately, we live in a country with a two-tiered citizenship: individual & corporate. Corporate citizens certainly can afford to do things and access the government in ways individual citizens certainly cannot.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:19
tolerant1 (skinny, Namaste' and a gulp at ya...aye buddy, but the battles are more fun than) ID#373284:
conventional warfare..uh huh...oil interested...check out ERHC - USA

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:16
strat (Mtn Bear) ID#93241:
Read the one on Saudi Arabia...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:13
mozel (@Your disadvantage in the legal system as a plaintiff or defendant) ID#153102:
for your legal alter ego starts at the courthouse door. Because you are paying for the other side's lawyers. You subsidize the government's lawyer with your slave labor and the corporation's lawyer is a tax deduction for the corporation. You pay your lawyer out of what is left over after tax.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:12
Mtn Bear (SE) (Leland's Oil) ID#347267:
If you are at all interested in Black Gold, and even if you are not, READ THIS.
The next war may very well originate in the Caspian Basin.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:11
tolerant1 (CharlieS_A, Namaste' and a gulp back at and me and another for ya...and of course) ID#373284:
I used to live next to the sports writer, goodness, twenty some odd years ago...great guy, lovely wife...since then I can tell you NewsDay has gotten huge...another great place for history on the Island that Is Long is Finnegan's on wall street...uh huh...I honestly believe some of the people at the bar were on Long Island before there were trees here...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:08
skinny (Tolerant1) ID#287114:
Agents from the empire of Tequila Herradura Reposado have been trying to unseat you as the King of the island that is long,,,,//////// The gouchos from the forces of Cueruo Especial are defending your position.
A few gulps and keep a sharp eye.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:03
tolerant1 (I figure GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD is most likely on life suport with GB losing 17-0 to) ID#373284:
the Raiders...I just saw an ambulance leave the stadium...a gulp to him for a speedy recovery...Namaste'

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:03
CharlieS__A (Tolerant,about Long Island) ID#342416:
You probably know about this, but just in case.

The website originates on LI
It has a very comprehensive history of
the island that is long click on the far upper
left of the homepage.Namaste' and a gulp to me.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 17:02
Cage Rattler (North Korea's financial dirty tricks ) ID#33182:
Stellar workmanship behind counterfeiting of U.S. currency

This exclusive report is excerpted from the latest issue of Western Journalism Center's off-line monthly magazine Dispatches. For sample copies or annual subscriptions, go to our Online Storefront.
By Anthony C. LoBaido
Copyright 1998, WorldNetDaily

North Korea is surviving a killer depression and famine, in part, by counterfeiting U.S. currency.

The Stalinist state can be proud of the stellar workmanship it put into reproducing the new U.S. $100 bill. The fake bills have been circulating around Thailand and Cambodia of late. A recent sting operation conducted by the U.S. Secret Service resulted in the arrest of North Korea's ace counterfeiter Yoshimi Tanaka -- a Japanese leftist who defected to North Korea in 1970. Tanaka was captured after a wild car chase across the Cambodia-Vietnam border.

South Korean military intelligence officials believe that North Korean agents have purchased printing presses identical to those used by the U.S. Treasury Department. The presses were obtained in the global banking haven of Switzerland. That's only the half of it, says South Korean Army Intelligence Officer Kim Jung-min. The North Koreans have identified the exact formula for making U.S. Treasury paper.

By uncovering the exact mixture of pulp and cotton used on American money, the North Koreans have reached a new level of expertise. In fact, U.S. officials now claim that North Korean copies of the U.S. $100 bill are better than the originals made at the U.S. mint.

The North Koreans have lowered their counterfeiting skills to avoid suspicions, adds Kim.

Other sources of cash include the sale of ballistic missiles to Libya -- while other North Korean sales to Pakistan and Egypt have also been alleged by the CIA. The much ballyhooed attempt of North Korea to buy high-level nuclear waste from Taiwan in exchange for storage space in the Northern tip of the Korean Peninsula, ( not to mention a cool US $1 billion in cash ) was thwarted by pressure from the U.S. Congress and South Korean environmental activists.

South Koreans were also shocked when an elite commando unit of North Korean special forces infiltrated the South on September 18, 1996. The unit, consisting of 25 men, was neutralized by South Korean counterinsurgency units. Some were believed to have committed suicide. One commando is believed to have made it safely back across the DMZ.

North Korean dirty tricks have now reached into the realm of cyberspace as elite computer warriors were recently suspected of hacking their way into the U.S. Air Forces' top command facility. Using the name Kuji the hacker broke into the computer operations center at the Rome Air Development Center in upstate New York. Undaunted, U.S. military computer operators fought back, launching over 150 cyber incursions into foreign military, governmental and commercial computer systems worldwide in an effort to track down Kuji.

According to Jim Christy, the top computer crimes investigator for the USAF, there existed a grave concern that the North Koreans would perceive the U.S. counter-cyber attack as an aggressive act of war. The breach in security that the North Korean cyber-warrior found was a backdoor opening to the USAF mainframe via the South Korean Atomic Research Institute. Kuji also recruited a 16-year-old British national known by the handle of Datastream Cowboy to help him hack into the top secret U.S. files. The British teenager has been apprehended and is still awaiting trial in the U.K.

Undaunted, Kuji remains at large and can be occasionally found chatting these days on where the elusive hacker can socialize and recruit amongst a global audience.

In a non-related cyber matter, the [North] Korean Central New Agency has launched an English-language web page which can be found at The site carries official anti-U.S. and South Korean propaganda and other news items. By law, South Koreans cannot read North Korean periodicals or listen to their broadcasts. Thus far, South Korea has not made any attempts to block the Webpage, which is carried by a Japanese company.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 16:59
mozel (@robnoel) ID#153102:
Yes, discussions about what is legal or not legal are pretty much an event of non-significance in the arbitrary and capricious jusrisdiction of emergency martial law. People in general will probably never acknowledge this and stop hiring lawyers, since human beings are always willing to pay for hope, even false hope, in desperate circumstances.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 16:48
tolerant1 (skinny, Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, oh, Namaste'.......Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm) ID#373284:
sorta like one of them Little kings, a king, but not THE I will claim to be the tequila Emperor...uh huh...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 16:38
skinny (Tolerant1) ID#287114:
I can remember when VCRs and cel phones and lap tops cost too much.
Many gulps to yu.....are you still the KING of the long island.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 16:34
tolerant1 (skinny, Namaste' gulp at ya and now, onto digital cameras and their unrealized) ID#373284:
promise...simple...they cost too much...plain and will be quite some time before silver drops out of the film business...this conversation has been going on longer than when the original comment was made...or question asked...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 16:30
Mtn Bear (SE) (@Envy) ID#347267:
Sorry, url didn't post:
You can research from this url charts etc.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 16:29
tolerant1 (ssc-nut, Namaste', Hmmmmmmmmm, I am not high on ssc at all, at current prices) ID#373284:
I suggest you look real hard and long and in this order, PAASF, FSR, CFB, I think anyone not looking these three companies is making a very serious error...but I am nuts and that can be confirmed in writing from any who attended our afternoon on the Island that is Long yesterday...

Uh...huh...gulp at ya and good luck...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 16:28
robnoel__A (Mozel...I agree with you on confiscation ...if they want it no matter what it is they will TRY and ) ID#411112:

take it....I never saw your post outside of what Mr.Mick said about your statement to him that US Eagles are I said many times this is a non event when making a call on whether to buy bullion or numis.....some dealers read the 33 law as saying any collector coin that has a price higher than 15% of its intrensic value is a numismatic non-confiscateable piece and then try and sell you Proof Eagles which do have a premium over also comes in a real pretty box and a certificate of which you pay big bucks for.....

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 16:28
Mtn Bear (SE) (@Envy) ID#347267:
Here is a list to research: These are my favorites. Only one I own right now is KGC ( Kinross ) and GOLDX Gabelli Gold Fund. I do not play the small juniors because of volatility. Got burned on some of them earlier in the year, but used mental stops and got out after 10-12% losses. In KGC now at 2 1/4 and 2 5/16. Gonna hold till hell freezes over or gold rises! IMHO don't neglect the funds; GOLDX has some S. African exposure. Good Luck!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 16:28
Mtn Bear (SE) (@Envy) ID#347267:
Here is a list to research: These are my favorites. Only one I own righr now is KGC ( Kinross ) and GOLDX Gabelli Gold Fund. I do not play the small juniors because of volatility. Got burned on some of them earlier in the year, but used mental stops and got out after 10-12% losses. In KGC now at 2 1/4 and 2 5/16. Gonna hold till hell freezes over or gold rises! IMHO don't neglect the funds; GOLDX has some S. African exposure. Good Luck!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 16:27
skinny (Gianni Dioro) ID#287114:
With the new digital cameras what is the future for silver and film.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 16:26
Suspicious (Klinton to lie tomorrow ! ) ID#287312:
Oh Well, just another day !

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 16:21
Bill2j (@Envy) ID#259400:
And every one of them is going to sell short.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 16:19
Envy (@Cherokee) ID#219363:
Hahahaha, okay already! I know I know. I'm talk'n actual companies that are already pulling gold out of the ground, the ones that have just been hurt by the low POG. Not looking for a guy with a shovel and a dream.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 16:04
mozel (@There's Blood In The Streets In Indonesia) ID#153102:
Must be bargains in Indo juniors and think how far even the $CDN will go in rupiah.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 16:03
Mtn Bear (SE) (End of the Weekend) ID#347267:
JP says: ---- With cash items at all time low, the funds will be forced to sell stocks within the next 6-8 weeks. Who is going to get hurt ? Almost everyone. The moment of truth has arrived. Why ? over 65% of the trading on the NYSE has been by mutual funds.

All should pay attention. Many of the more seasoned and knowledgeable
investors use newsletters for investment advice. Fabian, Charlie Hooper, and other mutual fund newsletter writers have issued sell signals. Even Jim Stack is finally gonna be right ( he cost me money in 1996-7 ) . Fabian is usually the last to sell, takes usually between 5 to 10 percent move down to trigger, depending on the previous strength of the market. I consider the folks that sell now in response to these signals NOT the average joe and jane, but the selling has started, just as JP says in his post. There will be a panic day, probably within his timeframe or soon after, when it will be impossible to reach your mutual fund family or broker by phone in order to sell. This does not necessarily apply to gold funds, but if a panic occurs, all will be hurt. I like Jerry Favors idea that a rally may be close, and hope so
so that all may at least lighten up on investments before that panic down day happens. Best regards to all; Mtn Bear

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 15:59
tolerant1 (Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, mining stocks, o'tay, Canadian be these...) ID#373284:
ASM, CFB, FSR, TNX, ING, OROP, IPJ...uh huh...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 15:50
mozel (@Mr Mick) ID#153102:
Using the asset forfeiture statutes, government can seize any property. That is a quite different legal process than followed in 1933 where people were given legal tender paper for gold.

Collectors use the word numismatic in a collector's sense of the word. Government uses the word numismatic in a legal sense of the word. There is no fixity or security of law under emergency martial law, which America has been under constinuously since March 9, 1933.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 15:43
cherokee ( ID#173410:


ever consider penny stocks?.... the coming bio-nightmare ( s )

i'm fixing to do that which i swore off....buying paper...the coming
bio problems fixing to be encountered will make 1000% gains for the
bio-pennies common-place.....

our zero waste chicken growing methodology is but one of the lit fuses...

consider the implications of this factual scenario...

chicken waste is used as fertilizer for crops that carbo-earth-anouts consume...

chickens that die 'un-natural' deaths, are ground-up and fed to the healthy chickens...the diseased birds are 'recycled' back into the
'zero waste' system..the mutagenic possibilities are staggering!!

we live in a constantly changing organism rich environment...the number
of 'critters' that we cannot see.....and that can/will ---in a short time---mutate into deadly 'critters' due to the afore-mentioned 'zero-waste-modern-chicken-rearing-techniques' is huge.....this is fact..
it is at your super-market NOW...just as antibiotic laden beef..
tam bien....

awaken peopleo....things are not as you would have them...IF you knew..

cherokee!; ) ....chomp....chomp....chomp.......

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 15:29
Leland (Links From Richard Maybury - Don't Miss Oil In Troubled Waters) ID#316193:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 15:29
chas (The hatt re Jipangu) ID#147201:
Excellent comment re Jap money going into gold. I don't know, but I feel certain there are more private groups of money from Japan doing more of this. No clues, but a survey of suspect juniors may turn up something. Private Jap money is distinctly different from the public variety. It may be that the Jap money is not the only source of funding. Look at all the penny stocks and decide which you would put the money in. Good luck

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 15:27
Gianni Dioro__A (Envy, Kodak and Vertical Integration) ID#384350:
There used to be a movement for companies to diversify and to integrate vertically, now that seems to have changed back to focusing on the main business.

Kodak has to ask itself if it wants to get into the mining business, what rate of return it could manage on it, what are its costs of funds, and consider the risks involved. Usually as long as there is plenty of competition from the suppliers, it doesn't make a lot of sense buying into your suppliers' industries. Also consider that big customers can sometimes command better deals from their suppliers, though that might not be the case with Kodak and Silver.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 15:18
Envy (C'mon guys) ID#219363:
I know someone is gazing into a monitor right now - what are the best deals on mining stocks right now, best bang for the buck.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 15:11
ssc-nut__A (silver mining stocks) ID#288286:
does anyone else day trade ssc?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 15:10
The Hatt (EJ/ What about those that have borrowed to invest!) ID#294232:
Saw a recent interveiw where a couple put a second mortgage on their house in order to contribute more to their favorite fund... Recently read that they are not alone and that many have used their visas etc to pump money in... Donot know how wide spread this is but it could only make matters worse....

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 15:03
Envy (Mining Stocks) ID#219363:
Honest to goodness typo - I'm POSTIVE others CAN comment.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 15:02
chas (Gold: re it's value) ID#147201:
Back in 1869 when Jay Gould was working the RR, he decided to a plan to raise the price of gold. At that time, as far as I can determine, gold was taded in $100 units. U.S. code said then that a gold dollar was 25.8 grains, .900 fine. So, $100 was 2580 grains. With 480 grains/oz , the $100 unit was 5 oz and 7.5 pennyweights. His initial plan was to get traffic from Midwestern farmers to the export market. Farmers wanted pay in greenbacks and European importers wanted pay in gold. If he could increase the price of gold, it would increase Ag products to the East and European importers could buy more for the oz. This looked like a win/win deal and he decided to go with it. The higher the price of gold the better for the farmers and since this higher price was a devaluation of the greenback, the importers got more grain for the oz. The gold was a standard unit of weight traded against a unit of account. The grain was a standard unit of weight evaluated in a unit of account. He went ahead with it and the consquences worked for a while. If this doesn't make sense, let me know- I had a heelofa time working it out. There's a book titled Gold Panic. That;s all I have on it, but it should turn up somewhere.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 15:01
Envy (Mining Stocks) ID#219363:
Some that I found, I'm sure others can't comment more - ANZ.TO/0.16, AMZ.TO/1.95, AXPL/3.50, AE.V/0.05, APG.V/0.04, AMS.V/0.05, AGE.TO/5.15, BZZ.AL/0.15, ACA.TO/1.32, EMG.V/0.24, BAM.AL/0.27, CKS.V/0.54, BSX.TO/0.33, BSW.TO/0.16, RDK.V/0.49, GNN.AL/0.14, EMR.V/0.29, DRS.V/0.60, NNE.AL/0.38, AFRI/0.4375, DROOY/2.00

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 14:59
mozel (@sharefin @Living Off The Land @Future Vision) ID#153102:
@sharefin The road to hell is paved with good intentions, compadre. It was good intentions what gave us fiat paper for our store of devalue, unit of noaccount, and medium of exchange by legal robbery. Most realistically, all any Lizzy Borden child needs for mayhem is an ax. There seems to be more Lizzy Borden events than ever before. But, then, it's easier to publicize than ever before.

Arms are a political, not a social issue to me. I think I have the natural right to self-preservation and self-defence. When people mean to do you harm because they don't agree with your demand to be let alone, that's a political not a social issue. Some people just don't like to hear NO for an answer. Put up your dukes is movie talk. Big people can hurt you. Maybe you are a big man. Two big men can hurt you. Three can kill you easily with their hands. Now, you can either cook and wash for them and do whatever else they insist on or defend yourself. But, that takes means.

You may be interested to know that government in America has no legal obligation to protect a citizen. If you call 911 and they don't answer, they have no liability. I can about guarantee the same is true everywhere in the world. But, they certainly do promote the opposite impression with their media, don't they ? As part of your Y2K preparation, I suggest you get a letter from your local constabulary guaranteeing you the right to summon them, that if you call, they will come within a specific interval. And stand guard over your household if there are foragers, looters, murderers, kidnappers, or rapists loose on the land.

@Living Off The Land You either live off the land by your own toil or by somebody elses. There is an Executive Order authorizing agencies to live off the land, There is a manifest indication that tax collection by process of law will not function after Y2K. There are going to be federal foragers out and about looking for fuel, food, and other valuables, and people to cook and wash for them. These are going to be the groups at the top of the predator foodchain because they are well armed, warfare trained to kill, organized, and have authorization from a government having international recognition. They have legal authority ultimately from the U.N. and if you don't want war with the U.N., you won't cross them.

@Future Vision::: U.N. Blue.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 14:58
EJ (JP) ID#45173:
JP, a lot of folks over 40 in mutual funds who are still in are thinking this weekend about getting out next week. They are reading the Sunday papers about a world economic collapse, with the US the last man standing. The US savings rate is 0.2% because holders of mutual funds bought the idea that they didn't need to save, that the stock market was a guaranteed return on investment. Now they see that their retirement money is at risk. They will get out at a faster rate than previous weeks.

Folks will start to go into savings and rsk-reduction mode. They will pull their money out of the stock market and cut back on purchases.

So deflation begins in earnest from this change in psychology and behavior.


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 14:54
OLD GOLD (RJ) ID#242325:
Just wanted to thank you for the excellent weekly PM summaries at the Monex site. Your projections very close to APH.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 14:52
The Hatt (JP you are so right!) ID#294232:
Most Mutual Fund holders are putting their head in the sand regarding the losses they have experienced over the last sixty days. The boomers continue to stay the course however one must remember that to date most have only given up this years gains and once they go beyond that point and begin eating up what they percieve as real money the flood gates will open. The credit lines being used to fund redemptions will only make matters worse when the funds start to realize that they will have to begin liquidating positions to not only cover the credit lines but also the barrage of redemptions. The crime being committed here is that the funds are using the unsuspecting average investors money to prop up a market that appears destined to correct in a big way.... Have always maintained that mutual funds in the future will be defined as the vehicle used to set up an historic fleecing of the masses and if I am wrong I will die a poor man while the masses will prosper in wealthy retirement!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 14:47
EB (Spoke to TeddO yesterday....) ID#187109:
He says hello to all who care. His Irish amigo is in town. Sean Whelan......some may remember the last time he visiTED last year. They had a drinking fest unmatched in Cape Breton history. Well, it is more of the same....and Sean had 'broke up with the old lady' ( his words ) you can imagine the Rum intake has been stepped up a wee bit.

He is starting his own newsletter also. The first issue will be available sometime in the next year...or five. It will be reasonably priced at around five thousand................pesos.

He wanted me to tell you all his predictions regarding the DOW and GOLD. So w/o further babble, here goes.

DOW = 119 ( no typo ) by Feb 10, 1999
GOLD = 40,916.00 ( US$ of course )

there you have it. the clock ticks....and tocks...

He is getting sick and tired of living like a hillbilly ( US slang...figure it out ) and is looking forward to the day this is all done. He figures completion will be in Nov/Dec. And he will be back at Kitco to give everyone weather reprts from beaUtiful Swans Island, Maine.

That is all. Have a nice day.

oh yeah.......i almost forgot.........he said:

go gold! go ABX! arf! arf!

he is also VERY flattered that the Hep has taken his rally call as his moniker.......AGULP to Hep.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 14:43
Leland (Crazy Compensations Packages, Part of the Problem in Corporate America) ID#316193:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 14:40
chas (rhody re your 8:33) ID#147201:
I'm in Morganton, N.C. Have friends all thru the mtns. If this is not the Rhody capital, it's close. Is there anything around here that you would like? I can find it . I'm not that familar with intimate details of plants, but I have been able to make them grow. There are several shrubbery growers here that are knowledgeable and will tell me what I don't know. Let me know if I can help, Charlie

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 14:36
The Hatt (Mike re:Japanese) ID#294232:
Appreciate your comments! Yet it seems to me that I would prefer to side with those that have cash and no debt versus those with no cash and an ever growing foreign debt.Yes Japan as a country and an economy are in serious trouble but it is difficult to ignor the fact that they still hold the trump card that being US Treasuries. Never under estimate Japan as there is no doubt in my mind that they have an economic plan in place and all of these foolish, market and currency shaking statements are nothing more than a means of lining up the ducks..... For what I wish I knew!!!!!!!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 14:28
DEJ (Mr. Tice's comments in Barrons.) ID#270236:
I used to think, using the arguments that Mr. Tice used, that deflation
was inevitable. However, after observing the Asian collapse, I'm not
so sure.

While the Asian economies are in a state of depression, they are not
deflating. With currency collapse their inflation rates have soared.
This suggests that any global depression need not be deflationary but
could rather be inflationary in nature with central banks preventing deflation through massive inflation even while
real economic activity is declining.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 14:06
tolerant1 (, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...and yes, the start of the finish...) ID#373284:
chao...and flux...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...and with Herr Clintler's butt on the burner...I just gotta drink a gulp to that, uh to ya, take em to the cleaners and turn more of that cellulose into the real and silver...the fiats be damned...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 13:55
JP (Mutual funds holders are about to be taken to the cleaners) ID#253153:
We are in a confirmed Dow Theory Bear Market. Look for big holes to appear in the stock market as buyers vanish when they see large blocks of stocks offered for sale. Large blocks for sale usually scare buyers half to death. Mutual fund redemptions should be exceptionally heavy as the little fellow takes his losses in them. With cash items at all time low, the funds will be forced to sell stocks within the next 6-8 weeks. Who is going to get hurt ? Almost everyone. The moment of truth has arrived. Why ? over 65% of the trading on the NYSE has been by mutual funds.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 13:46
cherokee ( ID#173410:

the city of lights gets brighter by the day...the number of casinos grows as if money grows on trees.....well, money has come from trees since gold was de-coupled from the us$...........cellulose as a medium of exchange....what a ruse...and the peopleo have bought it!

my cellulose is being given to the purveyors of greens in the desert...
played angel park yesterday.....what an incredible view of that which most never notice, and that which cellulose cannot buy....the mountains of the desert southwest.....there's gold in them thar mountains boys...
and it comes in 2 for the pocket, and for the memory bank...
my memory bank banker is in awe of the deposits being am i...

chaos and flux...........billy klinton...the imf.....fed...nwo...ira...jihad....sig's.....etc....etc....
the die cast.....and the band played on....the dance starts shortly, and ALL WILL DANCE to a song....the song of fear and panic, as their world crumbles from foundations made of cellulose....the same foundations that
gave way in '29.............

howdy t1 and stradman.... is the little queen of kitco doing
anyone speaking to ted please give my highest regards and salutations...


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 13:44
pdeep (David Tice's article in Barron's) ID#174103:
Just read it. The guy seems familiar with the Austrian economic school. The bottom line is that deflation has been masked by massive liquidity creation. Debt levels of individuals are 95% of a year's income on average. Margin rates are essentially 100% since credit is used to buy equities. When the bubble bursts, it will make quite a noise!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 13:37
ravenfire (M. Sheller (re: events at 1st annual Kitco meeting)) ID#333126:
Namaste' to you, sir ( in the style started by tolerant1 ) . Thank you for your entertaining report. May there be many more gatherings ... sponsored by our pooling some small amount each from our profits during the gold bull run to come ( I can hope, can't I? )

I look forward to meeting some of the esteemed Kitcoites in person someday. somewhere....

preferably when we're all squillionaires ( eh, Nick? ) ...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 13:35
Envy (Mining Stocks) ID#219363:
Could all of you guys go through a list every Gold, Silver, Platinum, etc, stock that you know about including the big corporate mining operations all the way down to the smallest junior and below. Any information about how hard their stocks have been hit over the past few years appreciated, as well as a danger level for holding the stock, in cases where you think the company might have to close it's doors for eternity. Many thanks.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 13:22
Envy (Kodak) ID#219363:
I keep hearing about Kodak and silver, quick question - why doesn't Kodak own the means to produce it's own raw materials ? I mean, it's pretty usual corporate strategy to want to own everything from nature to delivery, and Kodak certainly has the resources to invest.

If you took all the girls I knew
When I was single
And brought them all together for one night
I know they'd never match
my sweet imagination
Everything looks worse in black and white

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 13:00
tolerant1 (Mike Sheller, true enough, only the concentration of tequila saved me from a) ID#373284:
coronary...boy if nothing else, I am laughing at the media circus regarding Clintler and the politicians squirming to say something, without saying anything intelligible...Clintler and the rest of them are in charge...boy, do I feel secure, safe...NOT!!!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 12:59
Speed (IDT...Bill Murphy @ silicon investor) ID#29048:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 12:56
robnoel__A (ROR...heres a article by one of my favorite will lie it :-)) ID#411112:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 12:54
IDT (Leland or anyone) ID#228128:
Can you provide a URL for that discussion with Bill Murphy et al. or a name of the discussion group. I've been over to the SI site but can't locate this group. Thanks.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 12:44
Mike Sheller (tolerant) ID#347447:
that WAS a scary moment on that cliffside hairpin curve, wasn't it?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 12:42
tolerant1 (Mike Sheller, Namaste' a touch of madness, I'm in, uh huh...I especially hope it) ID#373284:
applies to us with an overdose of it...and gulp to ya, and we did have a fine time of it yesterday eh...your concise write up covered it...yup... and another gulp to some great folks...I am glad you trimmed that giant red beard though...your head now has a shape which better fits your body and in addition I didn't have to fear your getting it caught in the steering wheel again...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 12:39
Mike Sheller (sharefin) ID#347447:
Sir, will you marry me?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 12:36
Mike Sheller (The Hatt) ID#347447:
Though I agree about the wonderful bargains that are rife in little golds, the Japanese can hardly be described as smart money.

Perhaps, like a stopped clock...tick...tick...

Actually, you could accumulate enough of a few beaten down juniors to hold enough stock so that when the big turn comes down the road, you could reap a true fortune. Many of these miners that are now .50, .25, and even less, will be back to their bull highs of $3 and $4, or more in the next wave up. All it takes is patience and a touch of madness.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 12:35
sharefin (Strat) ID#284255:
No problems.
I make a great housewife - lots of practise.

Suculent Scampi served on chile rice?
Chablis on the side.
Fresh percolated coffee
Washed down with a few bottles of Drambuie.

You won't get me out of the kitchen.
Cooks get perks too. ( :- ) ) )

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 12:30
Mike Sheller (ROR) ID#347447:
A US economic collapse will result in increased government interference. People will cry that the free market stinks, and must be controlled ( after having ridden the bull up for several years quite happily ) . A total collapse, the kind that would EVENTUALLY, over perhaps several decades at soonest, bring some responsibility to freedom and natural law, would be a tragedy of incredible proportions. The only answer is to seek a steady, enlightened reformation, but this does not seem to be proceeding fast enough, nor can it catch up with the accumulated time bomb of a fiat banking system.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 12:30
rhody (@ ROR: I agree, a great article. The hyperperformance of) ID#411440:
the American economy over the past 20 years is due in large part to
the advantages of having world reserve currency status, a la Bretton
Woods, but then not living up to the terms of that agreement.

Should we bestow on the Americans praise for having the world's
strongest economy, when it has been at the expense of the rest of
the world? If America is the epitomy of free enterprise and
capitallism, God help us all. Capitallism is better than communism,
I grant you that. After all, it has lasted 10 years longer.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 12:16
Written by a business writer of the conservative US News and World Report in todays paper. The article is titles DEADLY DISPARITIES Americans' Widening Gap in Incomes May Be Narrowing Life Span. The article basically lays out the ill effect of wealth disparities and how I would call the countries more progressive systems have longer lifespans for the populace. This belies the touts of our US HMO medical system. I will quote the last part of the article whichg I appreciated.

But consider, for a moment, the slender basis for much of what we currently accept as economic gospel. Communism collapses, and the most timid forms of social planning are seen as a first step down the road to the gulag. Western Europe falters, and we are ready to throw a century's worth of social welfare measures in the trash. The American economy goes into high gear for a few years, and the idea of corporate executives who earn hundreds of times as much as their employees becomes a law of nature. Indeed, the the confidence with which eternal verities are thrown around by experts, and accepted by masses of people, in the capitalist and market-driven part of the world these days recalls nothing so much as the Soviet Union a generation or two ago. This dogma too shall pass, and we will all be better off.

There is hope, a US economic collapse will result in more progressive freedom.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 12:10
strat (sharefin) ID#93241:
...and another thing. As long as you have the smallest amount of cooking ability, you shouldn't need a gun.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 12:08
strat (sharefin) ID#93241:
...I'm laughing. And KP? KP=kitchen patrol

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:54
sharefin (Gandalf) ID#284255:
The letter was dam well not mine.
I just dam well thought all you dam kitcoites would enjoy a dam good laugh.

Reminds me of the one about the US Destroyer and the lighthouse.
Neither would give way till it was spelt out to the Gov't that the light was on a large rock and could well force the US Navy to have to go around the long way.

Sheesh - You got to be rock steady to move the Gov't.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:54
The Hatt (Small Cap Golds About To Rally!) ID#294232:
Have always admired the Japanese for their forward thinking and I believe that they have for sometime now been moving cash into gold and gold shares. They are the true contrarians but unlike us they choose not to make their feelings public. Sometime ago Codeman posted some unusual information on a company called Claimstaker Resources! The fact that the Japanese were involved got my attention so I decided to investigate his story. The chain of events and the timing could be a classic indicator that the smart money is moving back into golds!
Over the last ninety days a company called Jipangu out of Tokyo has invested over $7,000,000.00 cash in Claimstaker for the purpose of putting two small gold mines into production. At a time where raising cash is near impossible you have to ask yourself about the timing! Why do they choose now? The first mine is scheduled to produce its first gold in October and the second will begin producing in Spring of 99. The mines have cash costs of about $200.00 an ounce which tells me that Jipangu is looking for substantially higher gold prices.
Now there is talk from the company that they are about to embark on a substantial exploration program on what appears to be some promising claims in Nevada! I keep hearing that Jipangu is again going to fund this program although there has been no public statement on this. However, having invested $7 million to date it would be hard to believe that they would not! With gold trading at $284.00 an ounce you have to ask yourself why is this Company pouring cash into this VSE listed Junior? It appears to me that they want a source of gold in the physical form. Let me explain.
Finding information on a Japanese private company is usually very difficult but in this case much to my surprise Jipangu has a web site. With some help from a Japanese speaking friend i discovered that they are one of the few pure gold companies in Japan. Whats even more interesting is that they have huge sums of cash and they believe that gold is about to explode to the upside! So you have to ask yourself with what appears to be around $100 million in cash are they looking for more cash or are they looking for the ability to buy $200.00 an ounce gold through production. They want the gold.
I have always known that gold never ever telegraphs its moves and one must always look for subtle indicators that money is moving in and I believe that this is a strong indication. Poland was another this week!
With a currency crisis looming using the words of the ppt the enviroment for an explosive move is right! The dow is in trouble, the mainstream press is talking about alternative investments and gold is becoming a topic not visited for sometime. When gold breaks to the upside the junior golds will come back to life and create a sense of excitement not seen since Bre-x. Gold is getting ready to explode..... Just one mans opinion!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:54
The Hatt (Small Cap Golds About To Rally!) ID#294232:
Have always admired the Japanese for their forward thinking and I believe that they have for sometime now been moving cash into gold and gold shares. They are the true contrarians but unlike us they choose not to make their feelings public. Sometime ago Codeman posted some unusual information on a company called Claimstaker Resources! The fact that the Japanese were involved got my attention so I decided to investigate his story. The chain of events and the timing could be a classic indicator that the smart money is moving back into golds!
Over the last ninety days a company called Jipangu out of Tokyo has invested over $7,000,000.00 cash in Claimstaker for the purpose of putting two small gold mines into production. At a time where raising cash is near impossible you have to ask yourself about the timing! Why do they choose now? The first mine is scheduled to produce its first gold in October and the second will begin producing in Spring of 99. The mines have cash costs of about $200.00 an ounce which tells me that Jipangu is looking for substantially higher gold prices.
Now there is talk from the company that they are about to embark on a substantial exploration program on what appears to be some promising claims in Nevada! I keep hearing that Jipangu is again going to fund this program although there has been no public statement on this. However, having invested $7 million to date it would be hard to believe that they would not! With gold trading at $284.00 an ounce you have to ask yourself why is this Company pouring cash into this VSE listed Junior? It appears to me that they want a source of gold in the physical form. Let me explain.
Finding information on a Japanese private company is usually very difficult but in this case much to my surprise Jipangu has a web site. With some help from a Japanese speaking friend i discovered that they are one of the few pure gold companies in Japan. Whats even more interesting is that they have huge sums of cash and they believe that gold is about to explode to the upside! So you have to ask yourself with what appears to be around $100 million in cash are they looking for more cash or are they looking for the ability to buy $200.00 an ounce gold through production. They want the gold.
I have always known that gold never ever telegraphs its moves and one must always look for subtle indicators that money is moving in and I believe that this is a strong indication. Poland was another this week!
With a currency crisis looming using the words of the ppt the enviroment for an explosive move is right! The dow is in trouble, the mainstream press is talking about alternative investments and gold is becoming a topic not visited for sometime. When gold breaks to the upside the junior golds will come back to life and create a sense of excitement not seen since Bre-x. Gold is getting ready to explode..... Just one mans opinion!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:47
sharefin (Mike S) ID#284255:
Yeessss Sah!!!

What's KP.
Sounds like hard work.

Please excuse my comments earlier.
I ran out of patience with the thoughts of what too many guns can do.
Seeing children bear guns cause of parents attitudes bugs me too much.

What worries me most is not the gun situation of today.
More so the possible reactions from cornered humans in a chaotic envirionment.

The stepping stones have been laid
And if the path of Y2k is to lead to societal breakdowns.
I fear for how many will lose their heads and react badly.

These stepping stones have been in place for a long time.
But the path has not been well worn of late.
Many will not know how to traverse these passages of time.

I hope and pray that it does not come to this.
But this is what I fear and expect.

It's not the hoods and crims I worry about.
They will be taken care of.
More so the average Joe.
Who is cornered and angry,
And lashes out in frustration.


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:43
Goldteck (Getting to know Canada may be worth your while by Cynthia L. Kemper Denver Post) ID#431200:
international business
Getting to know Canada may be worth your while
By Cynthia L. Kemper
International Business Consultant
Aug. 16 - It isn't easy for a mouse to share the same stall with an elephant.
Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau described Canada's relationship with the United States that way in the Los Angeles Times in 1973. Canadians used to say that's the way it is with Canada and the United States. They can live together, but the mouse has to watch the elephant's every move.''
Unfortunately, things haven't changed much in 25 years. Canadians still know a great deal more about us than we do about them, and most Americans make little or no effort to understand Canada.
Granted, the United States boasts 10 times the population of Canada, is the most powerful country in the world and takes a far more aggressive, visible stance in world affairs when compared to its more reserved neighbor. But, that is still not much of an excuse.
A common complaint by Canadians, even today, is that they follow current U.S. happenings daily via Canadian newspapers, radio and television news shows, but, little or no Canadian news is covered in American media.
The average Canadian knows everything about the politics, history and economy of the United States - most Canadians can rattle off the names of many of our presidents and all of our 50 states. But, 99 out of 100 Americans cannot name more than one Canadian prime minister or know that Canada has 10 provinces and two ( soon to be three ) territories. Even fewer know their names.
We are your best friends, your best customers, and you hardly acknowledge our existence,'' declared a Canadian businessman recently. Yet, the issue of Canadian viability and survival as an economic and cultural entity within the shadow of giant America continues today. Canada is like the U.S. in many ways - of common origins with an American-style society reproduced in its essential respects merely on a smaller and colder scale.''
But, Canada is far more international and multicultural than the U.S.,'' explained Canada's Consul and Senior Trade Commissioner in Minneapolis, Wayne Robinson. We have more of an inherent international focus.
Canada is essentially a mosaic society. . . . Our history is really quite different than yours,'' he said. Everything goes back to how our countries were formed and settled. You fought a war to gain your independence, we negotiated ours. As a result, Canadians are far more likely to prefer a negotiated settlement than call in attorneys. We generally prefer less conflict and more consensus.
But, Canadians will always beat up on themselves, . . . maybe we're not big enough to be arrogant,'' Robinson said. The average Canadian doesn't realize our greatness. We're so bombarded with American culture through the media.'' When asked about the differences he's seen between Canadian business approaches and those found in the United States, Robinson said, Americans tend to be far more aggressive, bold and pushy than Canadians. There's an expectation that decisions should be made quickly, . . . get it done now!''
He also suggests:
• Do not assume that doing business in Canada is the same as in the United States. With China or Japan, people know there's a language difference, so they're prepared for difficulties. But Americans often express surprise that the Canadian market is so difficult for them as well.
Usually that's because they place their Canadian business under the domestic sales group,'' Robinson said. That's a big mistake. Canadian sales operations and quotas should be under international' - not compared with the United States - it's another country with different laws and a different currency.''
• Never talk politics. Canadians don't appreciate others beating up on them - especially not Americans. Don't make the huge mistake of taking a side in the federalist/separatist debate. Your clients may be separatists.
• Think North-South as the natural order in trading with Canada. If you're in Colorado, you should look first at British Columbia and Alberta and then to other provinces.
• Alternatively, look to Canada to export for you. Canada is the United States' number-one export market by far,'' Robinson said. And, Ontario is number two.
. . . There's just an enormous amount that we don't know about each other.'' Cynthia L. Kemper is a Denver-based consultant and trainer who specializes in international business issues. Her column appears every Sunday. E-mail her at

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:41
APH (IDT) ID#255226:
The SnP has already done 5 waves down on a 60 minute chart and a normal correction on a weekly chart from the Jan lows. More importantly the 1x1 lines of the gann box cross at the 1055-1050 area. This usually marks a point of a bottom or a point of acceleration to the down side. If you want to probe the market both ways you would want to buy near 1053 with stop and reverse orders under 1050.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:41
Gandalf the White ((sharefin's 11:06) Spring Pond Dam ) ID#433301:
Please do not leave us all hanging out without telling us of the response to your beaverdam letter to the MI state environmental officials. That is truly a classic response.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:40
Leland (The Most Lively Gold Discussion This Morning is at Silicone Investors) ID#31876:
For members, tune-in to Searle Sennett, Ole49r, Bill Murphy,
et. al., on Dutch Central Bank Announcement

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:29
Rising Sun (Leland@10:12) ID#411331:

Interesting article involving the swiss Banks. Could somebody please tell why the Rothchilds never intervened in this situation. Something just doesn't seem right. Never the less, I am happy for these people who are going to be compensated

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:26
Winston__A (NOT! The News) ID#243420:
see below URL for the home page of
Not!The News ( Because it's not news, it's our opinion )
Not! the News is affiliated with the following stations:
NBS - No Broadcasting Standards.
JBS - Just Blowing Smoke
MBS - Media BS.
NNH - No News Here.
NJS - News for Joe Six pack.
INF - It's Not our Fault.
WKB - We Know Best.
LWN - Left Wing News
WWN - We Write the News
WIF - We're In your Face.
WLY - We Lie to You.
WHA - We have an Agenda.
For the complete Not!The News website, see

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:23
Mike Sheller (sharefin) ID#347447:
I expect you to fall out for live fire range at 07:00. And by the way, tie a white towel around your bunk rail tonite - you got KP tommorrow troop.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:20
Mike Sheller (Steve Puetz) ID#347447:
Speaking of feeling pain, Welcome Back Steve! I am sure that after your over 40 days and 40 nights in the wilderness you have new enlightenment to share, and you will delight us once again with your bold and courageous predictions and analyses. We are all both right and wrong here, but few are as dramatic as you. You'll add some needed prognosticating color, I'm sure, as opposed to many of your drab critics..

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:14
sharefin (Email chatter - not my own) ID#284255:
I sat here reading the posts about firearms and ammunition and several thoughts ran through my mind.

1. Firearms will probably be needed for a period of time. Depending on where you live, they may be more important than other places. Ammunition quantities will also depend upon your location.
2. A good revolver or handgun in the 38 Special and upwards calibers, a good shotgun ( pump or semi-auto ) in 20 gauge or 12 gauge, and a good rifle in one of the calibers larger than .22 long rifle would be all the average person needs. ( I do want to add that backup weapons for each
of those listed above would be nice, but if the original weapons purchased are of high quality, backup weapons may be a diversion of funds ) . If I was purchasing weapons today, I would go strictly with military style arms that have good parts availability.
Most commercial arms would remain out of service if they malfunction and need service. The 1911A 45, AR15, SKS, AKs. M1 Garands, M1As, etc. Complete parts kits can be obtained through mail order or at gun shows. ( Case in point would be the Ruger Mini-14 that has no
usable serviceable parts. If the firing pin breaks, it has to be sent to the factory for replacement or taken to a very good gunsmith who could fabricate install, and verify correct operation of the new one. ) If you have a military based firearm, you can buy parts, install them yourself and with little or no fitting, have a serviceable firearm again. Gun shows are an excellent place to ask questions, buy firearms and repair parts. Ammunition for military calibers is usually much cheaper than commercial calibers that are not in military use.
3. Ammunition quantities need to be larger if you live in major metropolitan areas. If you are not familiar with firearms and the shooting sports, you cannot believe the quantity of ammunition you can run through in one afternoon at the range. If you are practicing with an AR15, SKS, etc,
you can easily fire over 200 to 300 rounds of ammunition. Since many times a firefight with others
involves a large expenditure of rounds just to change position or create confusion, a single firefight could eat up 100 to 200 rounds if multiple participants are involved. If I was trying to survive in a metropolitan area, I would have as a minimum 5000 rounds of ammo for my battle rifle, 2000 to 3000 rounds of ammo for each of my handguns, and 1000 to 2000 rounds of ammo for my shotgun. There is always the possiblility of gaining arms and ammunition from the deceased in a firefight.
4. If someone is going to try to survive in a metropolitan area, it would be wise to find a neighbor or associate that served time in the military in a position of authority who is/was responsible for setting up firebases and who is knowledgeable about such things as fields of fire,
positioning, sniping, and perimeter defenses. If a person is being attacked by a small group of armed looters or other generally bad people. you could lose your life in the first second of confrontation. A smart group of looters, etc. would have a couple of snipers in position to remove you from the equation before you even start. This would also hold true in rural areas.
5. It would be worth the time and effort to determine the actual factors involved in a defensive position. You should have some idea of penetration protection of different materials against various weapons calibers and firepoints for defense without exposure. In real life, it doesn't
do you much good to hide behind a trash can or dumpster if someone is shooting at you. You have to consider other factors as movement to other over etc. Warfare is a learned skill. You can't just pick up a weapon and expect to confront another armed person or persons and expect to survive on luck. You may find that making a stand in a wood frame house with wood shake shingles a loosing proposition. The flaming arrows we used to see in westerns on television are possible and there are many other improvised methods of setting fire to structures.
6. You will not be able to survive alone if you have to depend on weapons and continued confrontations with armed opposers. You wil have to have the support of neighbors and
family. It's going to take cooperation and mutual defense to survive if and when it gets to the point of weapons usage.
7. I wouldn't place too much emphasis on hunting as a means of putting food on the table in most areas. The available wildlife will be gone in a matter of months as well as all stray dogs, cats, etc. The hunting weapons just don't make sense for most areas.
8. People of like mentality gather together in groups. There will be many starving ruthless people who band together to live off what they can steal and kill for. These groups will be as large as their ability to steal and plunder. Some may grow as large as 50 to 100 people. It will be very
hard for families and small communities to repel these groups. If the worst case scenario
develops, it will take several months for these groups to be rounded up and removed. The choice of a few individual weapons are not going to make much difference. These groups will have the numbers to overcome military patrols and gain access to weapons that will render opposition futile.

I have spent enough time on this post for today. I don't want to pour fuel on the fire, but it might be a better choice to spend more time on preparation as community than in a standalone survival mode. Some remote areas may have a chance in these circumstances, but anyone within a 150 to 200 mile radius of large cities, will not be able to withstand this kind of scenario alone.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:13
Mike Sheller (Bill2j) ID#347447:
Well, then, it looks like you and me will just have to go out and start a war! ( ;- )

Everything you say is true, but I believe in cycles, and I also believe in unbelieveable things.
Your gold shares down 50% is not a big deal. That means they are down 50% from historically LOW prices ANYHOW. Perspective is very important. If you look at a lontterm gold chart you will see that we are all standing in king kong's footprint looking around for a monkey. This is a long term play, and as I have said over and over again, we are really waiting for a major new cycle to come in. That is solely what I am basing my readings on - along with very powerful astrological indications for fireworks in 2003-2005. Especially for silver. That doesn't mean we wont start creeping up before then.

As for losses in longterm hold positions, take heart from my recent Astrological Investor feature about BICO. I spotlighted it at 12 cents a share in February for heavy astrological activity in July/August. The shares went down to 3 cents!!! Then exploded to .37 in one week in July. It could still have some more life in it. So if you bought it at .12 and watched it go to .3, you would have cursed me roundly ( as some did ) or sold out ( as others did ) . But if you had HELD until I said you should ( at least ) then you STILL would have tripled your money, even after having lost 75% of it on paper. This is not to say I'm so good. It's just to say that you have to have faith in a long term position and let it work out. You must only enter a long term position with a general understanding of how long you are prepared to wait, and why. Then you can hold your ground and not be swayed by others, or market fluctutuations. Ain't easy, sure, because we are all human. But that is the general rule. You will be surprised, and look back on this year as the time you should have bought even more ( if that's possible with us goldbugs any longer ) . But I feel your pain.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:09
IDT (APH) ID#228128:
Are you counting waves on the S&P? Looks to me like we are in a 3rd wave down. 1053 would make a pretty weak 3rd wave completion.. That would put it just above the the 200 MA at 1051. Is the 200 day MA the basis for your call for 1053?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:07
Leland (For Sunday Morning Surfing - Scroll to Personal Web Pages) ID#31876:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:07
strat (Bill2J) ID#93241:
What WAS in those drinks?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:06
On August 19, 1994, consistent with the authority provided me under the
International Emergency Economic Powers Act ( 50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq. ) , I
issued Executive Order 12924. In that order, I declared a national
emergency with respect to the unusual and extraordinary threat to the
national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States in light
of the expiration of the Export Administration Act of 1979, as amended ( 50 U
.S.C. App. 2401 et seq. ) . Because the Export Administration Act has not
been renewed by the Congress, the national emergency declared on August
19, 1994, must continue in effect beyond August 19, 1998. Therefore, in
accordance with section 202 ( d ) of the National Emergencies Act ( 50 U.S.C.
1622 ( d ) ) , I am continuing the national emergency declared in Executive
Order 12924.
This notice shall be published in the Federal Register and
transmitted to the Congress.
August 13, 1998
This was an actual letter from and reply to the Michigan Department of

Environmental Quality, State of Michigan:

Mr. Ryan De Vries
2088 Dagget
Pierson, MI 49339

Dear Mr. DeVries:

SUBJECT: DEQ File No. 97-59-0023-1 T11N, R10W, Sec. 20, Montcalm

It has come to the attention of the Department of Environmental
Quality that there has been recent unauthorized activity on the
above-referenced parcel of property. You have been certified as the legal
landowner and/or contractor who did the following unauthorized activity:
Construction and maintenance of two wood debris dams across the outlet
stream of Spring Pond.

A permit must be issued prior to the start of this type of activity.
A review of the Department's files shows that no permits have been
issued. Therefore, the Department has determined that this activity is in
violation of Part 301, Inland Lakes and Streams, of the Natural Resource
and Environmental Protection Act, Act 451 of the Public Acts of 1994,
being sections 324.30101 to 324.30113 of the Michigan Compiled Laws,

The Department has been informed that one or both of the dams partially
failed during a recent rain event, causing debris and flooding at
downstream locations. We find that dams of this nature are inherently
hazardous and cannot be permitted. The Department therefore orders you
to cease and desist all unauthorized activities at this location, and to
restore the stream to a free-flow condition by removing all wood and
brush forming the dams from the stream channel.

All restoration work shall be completed no later than January 31,1998.
Please notify this office when the restoration has been completed so that
a follow-up site inspection may be scheduled by our staff. Failure to
comply with this request or any further unauthorized activity on the site
may result in this case being referred for elevated enforcement action.
We anticipate and would appreciate your full cooperation in this matter.

Please feel free to contact me at this office if you have any


David L. Price
District Representative
Land and Water Management Division


Dear Mr. Price:

Re: DEQ File No. 97-59-0023; T11N, R10W, Sec 20; Montcalm County

Your certified letter dated 12/17/97 has been handed to me to respond
to. You sent out a great deal of carbon copies to a lot of people, but
you neglected to include their addresses. You will, therefore, have to
send them a copy of my response.

First of all, Mr. Ryan De Vries is not the legal landowner and/or
contractor at 2088 Dagget, Pierson, Michigan - I am the legal owner and a
couple of beavers are in the ( State unauthorized ) process of constructing
and maintaining two wood debris dams across the outlet stream of my
Spring Pond.

While I did not pay for, authorize, nor supervise, their dam project,
think they would be highly offended that you call their skillful use of
natural building materials debris. I would like to challenge your
department to attempt to emulate their dam project any time and/or any
place you choose. I believe I can safely state there is no way you could
ever match their dam skills, their dam resourcefulness, their dam
ingenuity, their dam persistence, their dam determination and/or their
dam work ethic. As to your request, I do not think the beavers are aware
that they first must fill out a dam permit prior to the start of this
type of dam activity.

My first dam question to you is: ( 1 ) are you trying to discriminate
against my Spring Pond Beavers, or ( 2 ) do you require all beavers
throughout this State to conform to said dam request?

If you are not discriminating against these particular beavers, through
the Freedom of Information Act I request completed copies of all those
other applicable beaver dam permits that have been issued. Perhaps we
will see if there really is a dam violation of Part 301, Inland Lakes and
Streams, of the Natural Resource and Environmental Protection Act, Act
451of the Public Acts of 1994,being sections 324.30101 to 324.30113 of
the Michigan Compiled Laws, annotated.

I have several concerns. My first concern is -- aren't the beavers
entitled to legal representation? The Spring Pond Beavers are
financially destitute and are unable to pay for said representation -- so
the State will have to provide them with a dam lawyer. The Department's
dam concern that either one or both of the dams failed during a recent
rain event causing flooding is proof that this is a natural occurrence
which the department is required to protect. In other words, we should
leave the Spring Pond Beavers alone rather than harassing them and
calling their dam names.

If you want the stream restored to a dam free-flow condition --
please contact the beavers -- but if you are going to arrest them ( they
obviously did not pay any attention to your dam letter-being unable to
read English )

-- be sure they are read their Miranda rights first. As for me, I am
not going to cause more flooding or dam debris jams by interfering with
these dam builders. If you want to hurt these dam beavers-be aware I am
sending a copy of your dam letter and this response to PETA. If your dam
Department seriously finds all dams of this nature inherently hazardous
and truly will not permit their existence in this State-I seriously hope
you are not selectively enforcing this dam policy -- or once again both I
and the Spring Pond Beavers will scream prejudice!

In my humble opinion, the Spring Pond Beavers have a right to build
their unauthorized dams as long as the sky is blue, the grass is green
and water flows downstream. They have more dam right than I do to live
and enjoy Spring Pond. If the Department of Natural Resources and
Environmental Protection lives to its name, it should protect the natural
resources ( Beavers ) and the environment ( Beavers' Dams ) .

So, as far as the beavers and I are concerned, this dam case can be
referred for more elevated enforcement action right now. Why wait until
1/31/98? The Spring Pond Beavers may be under the dam ice then and there
will be no way for you or your dam staff to contact/harass them then.

In conclusion, I would like to bring to your attention a real
environmental quality ( health ) problem in the area. It is the bears.
Bears are actually defecating in our woods. I definitely believe you
should be persecuting the defecating bears and leave the beavers alone.
If you are going to investigate the beaver dam, watch your step!
( The bears are not careful where they dump! ) Being unable to comply
with your dam request, and being unable to contact you on your dam
answering machine, I am sending this response to your dam office via
another government organization -- the dam USPS. Maybe, someday, it will
get there.


Stephen L. Tvedten

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 11:00
APH (Metals and a little Java) ID#255226:
Mooney - This could be the week that was or is for both gold and silver. Metals
and metal stocks are losing their downside momentum which doesn't mean they
couldn't move some what lower in price. But any new lows in the first few days
of this week could mark the bottom before a substantial rally. The XAU should
bottom in the mid 50's, Dec Gold is a low risk buy at 276, if you are a trader you
may want to short it here and reverse at 276. Silver has solid support on a
weekly chart at 5.05 and in Dec at 5.10. If these numbers are taken out by more
than 5 or 6 cents then 4.85 silver is likely and opens up the possibility of 4.50. If
this happens it will be because the weakness in gold has dragged it down. I'd
rather be long at 5.10 with a $100 stop then long from 5.25 or higher and watch it
collapse back down again. This is one of those times when you could be short
gold and long silver at the same time and make money. If you like your Java Hot
buy Dec Coffee at 108.50 use a 2-3 point stop.

Current positions:

SnP - Flat could bottom near 1053
Gold - Flat
Silver - Long from 5.10 Dec
Wheat - Long from 2.72 Dec

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 10:53
Leland (The Toronto Market is Now Down 19.5 Percent...) ID#31876:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 10:48
rhody (@ crazytimes: you are most welcome. To serve helps to temper) ID#411440:
the soul.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 10:48
wert (rhody;thanks) ID#245136:
In all due respect to Bart, the page and its readers.....its Sunday and time to fade from Au & Ag psyco-analysis. Regarding AU and R.albiflorum... I'm short on both and will be until next spring. Thx again...greensideup.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 10:46
Bill2j (@All, Great, great news.) ID#259400:
I found out at a party last night that all our fears of a market collapse are unfounded. Seems there is a law on the books that forces mutual funds to buy stocks when they go down a certain amount. This will prevent the markets from ever dropping very far so all my worries about a market crash are for naught. I am so reassured now I feel like ordering up a bunch of stock monday. By the way, no alcohol was served at this party.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 10:44
crazytimes (@ rhody) ID#342376:
Thanks for all your vital information on gold lease rates.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 10:32
rhody (@ wert: since rhodies are alpines, you might try dwarf (under) ID#411440:
the snow types such as R. lapponicum, R. Keiskei, R. dauricum,
R. mucronulatum var. Cheju. Some of these are zone 5 but
If they keep under the snow, they may do OK.

You do have one indigenous azalea called R. albiflorum, which despite
the name is a nice golden yellow, and hardy to -40. There, I hope
that satifies Bart re content but in case it doesn't, what is your
opinion about the relationship of gold's popularity and the
popularity of yellow rhododendrons?

You might consider joining the ARS ( American Rhododendron Society )
and hooking into their seedex programme. The ARS is on the WEB.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 10:26
Selby (The end is near) ID#286230:
Ten reasons why tomorrow will be a better day

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 10:22
Bill2j (@Mike Sheller) ID#259400:
Mike, I hope and pray with all my heart and soul you are right. If you are I am in fat city. I own enough gold shares to sink a ship. Problem is they are all down about 50% in value. I have long ago accepted the fact I made a bad bet and lost so I am past losing any sleep over it. I have even become a better and smarter investor because of it. I now look at things with somewhat more objectivity and less emotion than I did in the past. Having said all that I have some deep seated fears about gold ever going back up. It has been said gold is the mother of all inflation barometers. Unlike many others who post on this forum I have less confidence that the fed can reflate or stir up inflation. If you look at the historical record you find that inflation almost always is associated with war or the after math of war. During peace time the natural tendency of economys is toward over production and deflation. We have all been fooled somewhat by the fact that the cold war was a unique set of conditions that allowed war time conditions to exist within the economy for over 40 years. By the way, I have often wondered if that anomaly might not somehow or another throw off the Elliott Wavers counts. Just a thought. In any event with no real war in sight and conditions of over supply and over production all over the world I seriously question whether the fed could reinstitute inflation. Japan is down to .5% interest rates and they can't do it. If we continue to deflate, and that is my worry at the moment, I can see nothing that could turn it around until it hits bottom. I feel as though we are in a pause half way down and gathering steam for the big plunge. The whole world is now in recession except for the US. If we go into recession I see nothing below but the abyss. Would of course be glad for any insight you could add that would cause me to think otherwise.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 10:12
Leland (Steve Dunleavy on Swiss Banks) ID#31876:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 10:11
Desert Queen__A (Mike Sheller) ID#257191:
U have a long memory and may it never fail you especially during these crictical phase of world economy.How crictical will the melt down in Russia be as the economy n currency is under immence pressure.
Your comments have been noted and for the moment Im gonna wait n see. Well I must say the see-saw effect of the market has been to my advantage this year especially when I needed to replenish on my physicals. Being in this part of the world has given me better pricing advantage.
If u should pass thru my knack of the woods pls email me.
E-mail at All lower case.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 10:09
wert (rhody 8:33 post) ID#245136:
rhody; I new it when I first read your post that you were a gardner. It's my passion as well. We live in the foothills east of the CND. Rockies ( zone 2 ) growing season short. Any suggestions for Rhodies? Elevation about 4885asl. Currently have about one acre of wild flowers under cultivation for seed collection. regards.....

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 10:09
Spud Master (@Bill's testimony tommorrow...) ID#288235:
spent yesterday gagging while listening to various bought American
journalists kiss-up, lick-up, cover-up & do everything in their
power to exculpate one of the most corrupt, venal and manipulative
politicians alive. Stunning to see the depths to which America has sunken.

No one should be confused about the testmony tommorro -- it is calculated & orchestrated by Clinton et al to make Bill look like the contrite, repentant sinner...

... and Ken Starr as the evil monster who practically forced Bill to do commit the crime, perjury. etc!

This is just a voodoo transferance ... I'll be close to a toilet while I watch Bill's crocodile tears.


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 10:07
HOOSIER (The Return of Mr. Puetz!) ID#401183:
Mr. Steve Puetz: Welcome back to the Kitco Site!
Feel free to spill your guts on a more consistent and short time frame during this historical economic period of time.
Your insight and perspective are most generously appreciated!
Thank You, Hoosier.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 09:54
robnoel__A (Mr.Mick...The value of numismatics like all collectables is in the eye of the beholder...however ) ID#411112:

supply and demand also play into current
price of numis coins...I deal in low grade
common date pre 33 gold coins because of its
price stability and its past
performance....however dealers who get a call
from an investor looking to buy bullion based
on a lost leader SELL BULLION 1%
ABOVE OUR COST.....will then pitch the fact
that bullion is not what they want because of
reporting requirments and confiscation...they
will then pitch high grade numis coins...for
example MS 66 Saints for $2600.00 in most
cases the commission is around
for the law as written the best source is
COIN WORLD ALMANAC....its in most libarys I
do not have a web page with that info....I
have been in bus for 20 years I know where
all the bodies are buried

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 09:52
Mike Sheller (Desert Queen) ID#347447:
I sure do remember you. Love your new name. I don't think I'm the one you'd want for any kind of chair for social events. I'm too disorganized. But I do like to have fun.

As for gold near term, though as u know I'm a longterm bull, the next few weeks seem real critical to me. The support for gold of the past 2 decades seems to be 285ish. Let's say between 275-290. If this band is decisively broken on the down side, I might have to conclude that the deflationists were correct and everything is going down the tubes.
If you put a gun to my head, I'd say we are at the bottom, and this support will hold. The configuration of this plunge since '96 is such that there is usually no follow through on a pattern like that. It's an exhaustion move for the WHOLE corrective wave pattern for gold since the '80 top. I really think THIS is the moment - '97 and '98 will prove to be the last chance to get aboard at bargain basement prices in bullion and shares. I feel the same way about oil as well.

So I figure gold has to define itself relative to 275-290 soon, and when it does we'll know. If it can rally above 315-320 from here, it won't look back. If it goes below 275, it's truly a new era. And a big error for me.

Stay out of sandstorms!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 09:50
rhody (@silverbaron: e-mail is sent. I hope it gets through as) ID#411440:
several times I have tried to use hot links off a posting here at
Kitco, it has not worked. ( Apologies to those I may have seemed
to ignore, but it was a technical problem, not discourtesy )

I did no crosses this year as the market and Y2K concerns have
altered my concerns and behavior. If gold is a bust, then no one
will have any money, or time resources to devote to horticulture.
The same can be said for antiques.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 09:44
Mooney* (Virus Alert) ID#350194:
Good Day ALL! I usually don't do this kind of thing but this one sounds serious enough to pass on and seems legit:
This is a new twist. Someone is sending out
a very desirable screen-saver the Budweiser Frogs.
But if you download it, you will lose
everything!!! Your hard drive will crash!!! DON'T
AS POSSIBLE... If you download some jerk from the
internet will get your screen name and password!
Please send this to any names you can
think of and remember never download BUDDYLST.ZIP
This is a new, very malicious virus and not many
people know about it. This information was announced
yesterday morning from Microsoft. Please share it
with everyone that might
access the internet. Once again, pass this along to
EVERYONE inyour address book so that this may be
stopped. Also do not open or even look at any mail
virus will attach itself to your
computer components and render them useless.
Immediately delete any mail items that say this. AOL
has said that this is a very dangerous virus and
that there NO remedy for it at this time. Please
practice cautionary measures and forward this to all
your on-line friends ASAP.

Susan Flemming
Newcourt Systems Department
Phone: 416-594-5276
Fax: 416-777-0876

Fellow Kitcoites - This message came to me via someone who works in my office and I did check by phoning that the Susan Flemmming phone # is legit. I understand that you can download something containing a virus but I always wonder about the message that is generally attached to these warnings about not opening mail that says 'undeliverable' or 'could not send' as this often happens if you are sending out e-mail. What is the harm in reading your own undeliverable mail and how can you check who you sent it to without opening it? AAR - Remember - No Green Frogs ( and if you want to get silly - NO GREENSPAMS! )

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 09:30
Leland (.....the miners and other unpaid workers wanted to take the summer off from) ID#31876:
organizing an overthrow of the government so they could raise
some vegetables to avoid starving this winter.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 09:29
Desert Queen__A (Mike Sheller) ID#257191:
Hello Mike
Remember an old friend from Malaysia who took some advice from you.
Thanks all the same. I have relocated to Dubai - City of Gold.
Unfortunately there isnt very much glitter these days but Im in it
for the long run and business as usual.
Perhaps the inaugral kitco get together should be made a yearly affair
and we could plan it on our calender. Like to vote u in as the pro-tem
chairperson.Any seconders?

Whats your outlook for our metal over the short term ... wont hold u to it.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 09:21
Silverbaron (rhody) ID#288295:

You an I share some common interests re: rhododendrons and antiques, as well as gold. If you would like to discuss, shoot me an email at

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 09:09
Mike Sheller (Yesterday's Kitco Konvocation) ID#347447:
The Saturday, August 15th meeting of a small group of Kitcoites on lovely Long Island, New York was a resounding success, so I will resound it for you all here in this report. Gathered at the pretty waterside town of Cold Spring Harbor was tolerant 1, reify and his lovely wife, crystal ball and his charming girlfriend, bill in oregon ( in New York for the day ) , and yours truly.

The mid-day convocation began with introductions and amazed looks at each other as we tried to put real faces with imagined impressions carried for so long. Since I had already visited with tolerant on a couple of prior occasions, I was able to at least avoid THAT shock. Reify and Bill distributed thoughtful gifts, and Crystal Ball passed around some magnificent historical gold and silver U.S. coins. I think he got them all back, but I'm not absolutely sure.

Lunch was enjoyed in the nearby, and delightful town of Huntington, always an elegant, yet homey place to visit. A remarkable combination of New York sophistication and North Shore Long Island casualness and historical charm. A perfect August afternoon shone brightly outside as we munched and quaffed at Finnegan's bar and restaurant, in a cool, slightly dim atmosphere of dark wood, tons of intriquing old photographs, cigarette smoke and the distinct smell of beer. The glints of sunlight and occasional glimpses of the people outside in their shorts and tank tops passing by coming through the window was a nice counterpoint to the festivities inside. Between mouthfuls of fish n' chips, Irish stew, and rigatoni ala Vodka, we laughed, talked about gold ( laughing even harder ) and the markets, and talked about all you guys and gals that weren't there.

Between remarks like So did you hear from Squirrel?, How about sam-A, Prometheus said..., bystanders ( and sitters ) at the bar must have thought we were some kind of gangland meeting, or something. Lunch, needless to say, took up most of the day, and when we returned to the hotel where reify and bill were staying, we were treated to some real, live, actual photos of some kitcoites that reify had smuggled into the country with him. Strad, Sharefin, and several more were exposed to our incredulous gaze one by one, like french postcards being hawked outside a schoolyard.

Saying goodby to each other was definitely a very family experience. It was a warm day in more ways than even el Nino could have stimulated. In all it was a wonderful example of that amazing new phenomenon that tolerant has been talking about lately - ACTUAL REALITY. It has a few bugs, but I think it's going to work.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 08:47
Mr. Mick (Robnoel, so what you're saying is that numismatics or semi-numismatics are only worth) ID#345321:
the same as bullion ( in a situation where the dollar goes south ) . Dealers are therefore fleecing people with these higher prices, yes?
By the way, do you have the text of the applicable laws, by any chance?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 08:45
Gianni Dioro__A (Western Usurers are Pillaging Russia from Without) ID#384350:
Today's Sunday Times says, The scramble to raise cash, and particularly to raise DOLLARS to pay foreign banks, has brought even Russia's strongest banks to their knees. The central bank has had to give $200m to Oneximbank and $100m to SBSAgro.

Dollar denominated loans are the key to the Usurer. This is how SE Asia got screwed. They couldn't come up with dollars to pay their creditors ( read: Usurers ) .

As SEQUIN pointed out a couple of days ago, the Sunday Times echoes, Devaluation could damage other countries. German banks have $30 billion of exposure to Russia or about 13% of their capital.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 08:43
robnoel__A (Mr. Mick...Mozel could be confussed with laws pertaining to collectables...the law as stated refers ) ID#411112:

to numismatics issued before 1933 from a US
Mint with a collector value higher than the
intrensic value of its gold content....then
again as I have said many times before
confiscation in my opinion is a red herring
used by numismatic dealers to bump gold
buyers into higher commission sales...if
there are going to recall gold they will sign
a new Executive Order to override the
existing law.....

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 08:33
rhody (@ Tantalus: You are welcome. We all try to do our part in ) ID#411440:
watching this gold market for the Kitco community.

Yes, I do have some physical gold ( about 10% of my portfolio ) .

Yes, the one month lease rates could go lower. The lowest I have
ever seen is about 0.65%. You should be aware that some CBs will
not lease gold at under 1%. The lease rates that Kitco posts may
represent the minimums. Going lower, is still possible, but
represents extreme diminishing returns for the CBs. The fact that
lease rates are this low implies that some CBs want gold still lower.
Who benefits from that? I can think of only one entity that would
want this: the United States government. I think the Europeans
are happy with gold anywhere under $300.

Re. my handle ( Rhody ) , it does not refer to rhodium, but to
rhododendrons, which I hybridize ( breed ) as a hobby-potential
business. Rhododendrons are flowering shrubs. My other interests
are mineralogy, antiques, and of course precious metals. I am
a geologist and teacher.

I am considerably to the left of most people on this forum, but
given that the political spectrum is a circle, this distinction
may be meaningless. ( Look at the implications of the PPT re the
convergence theory for right and left wings of the spectrum. )

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 08:28
Gianni Dioro__A (The Ever Shrinking Cash Flow) ID#384350:
The Sunday Times has an article in today's business section entitled, Wall St Props up a House of Cards. In it Bill Martin writes that much of many countries' GDP growth is related to the bouyant stock market in the US, that US consumption has been the world locomotive, and thus the world is vulnerable to a crash in the US.

He says, a big fall ( in the stock market ) would deal a deflationary blow. As illustration, my model suggests a 50% vertical drop in share prices today would induce a fall in American GDP next year even if interest rates were slashed. The shock would be greater than in 1987, partly because equity wealth has doubled as a proportion of household income and partly because the market is now more overvalued.

He also points out that private sector cash flow is now contracting. On provisional figures, America's private sector is now running a cashflow deficit worth an unprecedented 3.5% of gross domestic product ( GDP ) .

True M1 is contracting since January, and how can interest be paid to the usurer if M1 is contracting? Perhaps by a liquidation of stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 08:21
Tantalus__A (Looks to be a lazy Sunday here, as it should be.) ID#374204:
Got my arsenal; worms, shiners and crankbait. Off to test my skill
vs the wiley Florida bass. Shall check in later.

See you in church if the windows are clean.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 08:18
Mr. Mick (Can any of you American gold dealers clear up the confusion on confiscatable gold?) ID#345321:
Mozel posted last night that only American Eagles were non-confiscatable, however the article he referenced had as much opinion in it as fact. Can anyone post the law as it reads, just the text and references, whether it is US Code, Executive Order, Treasury Department Regulations, or whatever, but only the text, no opinion, translations, etc. It would be much appreciated by all.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 08:13
Tantalus__A (all - I've been looking at some polls,) ID#374204:
and remembered that someone here asked the other day if they had
ever been polled. I didn't see any responses. I'll ask again:

Has anyone here ever been polled? Know anybody that's been?
Know anyone who knows anyone that's been polled?

Where do they take these things? The Beltway? Large cities only?
Statistics 101 says this can't be sound sampling.

Oh, I forgot. Everyone here has been poled recently. ARRRGGGGHHH!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 08:05
Tantalus__A (rhody, been wanting to thank you for a while for keeping us posted) ID#374204:
with your updates and ideas on the lease rates. If it's at 0.80%,
can't it go lower? 0.50%, even zero? Nothing the CB's do to keep
down POG would surprise me. Or are the producers just tired of taking
it the teeth playing their game?

Anyway, keep up the good work.

PS: Do you have gold? Why the handle?

got rhodium?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 07:53
Carl (@Donald, A vote for inflation: John Neff in today's NY Times) ID#341189:
As manager of the Vanguard Windsor fund for more than 30 years,
John Neff accumulated one of most admirable investment records
in the mutual fund industry. He did not follow the crowd, but sought
opportunities in places where other portfolio managers failed to look.

While his contrarian nature sometimes caused him to be early in expecting
market downturns, it left him in a good position to benefit from the
inevitable rebounds. His long experience through up-and-down markets
makes him an excellent source for perspective on the current volatility.

Though he is officially retired, Neff, who is 66, still helps manage money
for colleges and foundations.

The recent downturn has not been a surprise to him; he expects the
correction to exceed the level of 10 percent reached on Friday.

Q. ( italics ) Does a period of volatility worry you, or do you see it as
offering opportunity? ( end italics )

A. Well, it seems to me that this market has been sharply overvalued. I
welcome the correction because it means that you don't have to take a
more substantial correction later on that would potentially set off other
things in the economy, like people spending less because they suffered so
dramatically in the market.

I've been saying for a while that we should be seeing a 20 to 30 percent
correction. So we've got a further distance to go. That would bring it
down to a more reasonable level and remind people that they shouldn't
think that stocks are going to go up 18 percent a year into perpetuity.

Q. ( italics ) In managing a portfolio in a period like this, do you have a list
of stocks that you want to buy, or do you try to move some money into
safer havens in bonds or some other asset class? ( end italics )

A. Well, before I recently went on a week-and-a-half golf cruise around
Ireland and Scotland, I peeled off part of my personal portfolio. And now
I'm thinking about putting some of that back in, particularly in some areas
that have gotten baked pretty badly: basic commodity cyclicals, maybe
steels and commodity chemicals.

Q. ( italics ) It seems that when you were managing the Windsor fund you
frequently had some money on the sidelines either parked in bonds or in
cash. ( end italics )

A. 1987 was the best case. We had about 20 percent in cash. The
thought was the shareholder had given us money to be invested in
equities, but when you couldn't find sensible things to buy, we told the
shareholder that at the margin we could go as high as 20 percent in cash.
We wouldn't do more than that because, one, we could be wrong and,
two, we'd been given the money to invest in equities. But we did that
about three or four times and successfully each time.

Q. ( italics ) Now the conventional wisdom is that individuals should stay
fully invested and not try to time the market. Does that make sense to
you? ( end italics )

A. I think you can do something at the margin when the market gets as
crazy and overvalued as it's been recently. One of the five myths out there
is, Thou shalt not market-time. Well, you know when that gets into the
conventional wisdom and consensus, it's time to question it. And you
know there have been times in the postwar period -- 1974 and 1987
particularly -- when it made some sense to take your foot off the
accelerator. When you do it, then you're beholden to put the money back
in when you get the opportunity.

Q. ( italics ) What are the five myths you mentioned? ( end italics0

A. Thou shalt not market-time. Inflation is dead. The cult of common
stock says cash flow burgeons into perpetuity. Bond rates are going
down. And the final one: Earnings continue to move up noticeably.

Q. ( italics ) Earnings is one that a lot of people are focused on now. ( end
italics )

A. Particularly in that valuations have gotten high and we run on earnings
trust. You've never had anything short of 1929 that was this high, so
you're looking for some better earnings gains to justify these prices. Here
we are 23 1/2 times earnings. I think earnings will be up 2 percent this
year, and I'd guess 2 percent next year. That's not exactly the kind of
trust that you'd ordinarily like when you pay this kind of heavy multiple.

Q. ( italics ) Are the things that are causing earnings problems for some
companies now deep-seated problems, or are they more of a transient
nature? ( end italics )

A. When you get to these frenzied markets, it drives managements or
portions of managements to hanky-panky. Cendant and Sunbeam have
already announced accounting irregularities. I don't know about Oxford
Health, but certainly they didn't know where they were in pricing and
expenses to their clients at all. When you push too hard and strain, you
create the circumstance under which it becomes more difficult.

Generally, the 2 percent increase in corporate earnings that I expect both
this year and next year is simply the pressures of a slower economy,
increased wage rates and the difficulty in passing those costs along in a
very competitive environment.

Q. ( italics ) Do you worry about or look at anything other than earnings?
Does the situation in Asia or how currencies are valued or the uncertainty
in Washington give you pause? ( end italics )

A. Well, certainly that overlay is taken into consideration by the earnings
numbers. That brings me back to the myths that inflation is dead and bond
rates are going to go down. I'd say already we've set into motion the
forces that are going to push the CPI up to 2 1/2, 3 percent and we'll be
looking at that kind of annualized rate as we get into the end of the year.
And if that's right, bond rates will be moving up instead of down. I'd have
them up maybe 75 basis points, to 6 1/2 percent or so on long
governments, from 5.7 percent or so now.

Q. ( italics ) Sounds bleak. In 1988, after the big decline in '87, you said
that the average guy in Peoria and Oshkosh really didn't care about the
stock market as long as he kept working. Aren't things are a little different
now, given the popularity of 401 ( k ) programs? ( end italics )

A. One of my other myths is that cash flow is guaranteed into perpetuity.
Obviously I'm resorting to hyperbole, but you know the mutual fund
investor can be and has been fickle. If the market got too high and then
the subsequent correction was too dramatic, you would lay waste to all
those dollar-averaging programs that seek to buy on the downturn. That's
what I've been concerned about, and I thought it could eventually have an
impact on consumer expenditures.

But I don't think the size correction that I'm talking about particularly will
do that, in that we've already experienced some of it. It's going to become
more of a thinking man's market. Of course, you do get negative earnings
surprises and attendant 15, 20, 25 percent corrections on those stocks in
one day.

But on the other hand, the companies that measure up won't go down as
much or won't go down maybe at all. Or they might even go up even
within a marketplace that could slide another 10 or 15 percent.

Q. ( italics ) You mentioned a couple of things that might look good to you
now, like some of the commodity cyclicals. But if you think that earnings
growth is slowing down, is that a good time to buy those stocks? ( end
italics )

A. Well, first, they didn't go up, to speak of, except briefly, and they've
been really slammed lately because of the Asian overlay. An awful lot of
their products -- steel, chemical, paper, aluminum -- are influenced by the
consumption numbers going down in those countries. I'd look for them to
stabilize and come back.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 07:50
Suspicious (Jung / 30-1) ID#287312:
Jung, you forgot to include taxes along with inflation.
Can you say PONZI ?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 06:56
rhody (LEASE RATES: gold is toying with its january lows again, but all) ID#411440:
is not the same with respect to lease rates for gold. Consider:

Jan. 8 1998, POG at 277 one month gold lease was 1.63% and one
year gold lease was at 1.75%

Aug. 16 1998, POG at 284 one month gold lease is at 0.80% and one
year gold lease is at 1.70


Low lease rates for one month gold indicate low demand for short
term, speculative attack ( shorting ) . In Jan. one month lease was
up at 1.63%, indicating many people were willing to lease in order
to short gold lower. Now the lease rates are so low, the only
interpretation is that demand for speculative shorting is near
implies we are at or near a bottom for spot gold.

Low lease rates for one year gold indicates low demand for hedging.
That is to say, gold producers are not forward selling gold by
borrowing from CBs to sell now, in order to replace the borrowed gold
a year from now with new mine production. Hedging activity is lower
now at 1.70% lease rates than in Jan at 1.75%. I recall in Jan, that
there was much news about producers buying back their hedges, and
indeed, KGM just made such an announcement. So producer forward
selling in bottoming, just like in Jan. this year. IMHO, this also
implies we are at or near a bottom for gold.

We are virtually at the bottom as far as leasing gold can operate
to drop the price. If gold goes down to retest its lows from here,
it will be strickly a function of the rise of the U.S. dollar.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 06:55
sharefin (Aurator) ID#284255:
Stick em up - your dukes that is ( :- ) ) )

Living in the USSA


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 06:33
sharefin (Russian official says no reason for bank run) ID#284255:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 05:47
Dave (@let me go to sleeep ) ID#261155:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 05:46
Dave (@here a kiss so at ) ID#261155:
least you got one before you got screwed give one back....
because I need one too.......if I am gonna get screwed....^s^..ha haha

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 05:35
mozel (@Nah ! We can't be the first citizen-subjects of a New World Empire Order.) ID#153102:
That would have to involve a conspiracy or treason. Neither of which is possible in modern America.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 05:31
Dave (The town clown even gets a blue HAT.......) ID#261155:
the US of A is subservient to UN do we have a Constitution.... blooper earlier said.....tis his at last who says it best..
tho oft expressed and many have is his at last who says it best......^SSSSSSSSSSSSS^.nite all and BTW..La Te Da and F*king La Ta
De.....:^ ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 05:23
Dave (The town clown even gets a blue HAT.......) ID#261155:
the US of A is subservient to UN do we have a Constitution.... blooper earlier said.....tis his at last who says it best..
tho oft expressed and many have is his at last who says it best......^SSSSSSSSSSSSS^.nite all and BTW..La Te Da and F*king La Ta
De.....:^ ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 05:19
Jung (P/E ratios of 30 to 1 ...) ID#237164:
Someone said that P/E of 30 to 1 implies 30 years of earnings to equal
price of the stock.

This does not mean that any of it is paid out as dividend. Even if all
of the earnings gets paid out each year, it actually would take much
longer than that.

P/E of 30 means the E/P is 0.03333 or 3.333 %.

If inflation is 2.5 %, then even if all of the earnings is paid out
to you each year, you are getting paid ( 3.5 - 2.5 ) % or 0.833 % or
0.00833. It would take 1/0.00833333 years, which is 120 years.

Hence, the motivation in buying a share at 30 to 1 can not be the
expectation of getting any of the money back from the earnings.

If inflation is 3.0% then it would take 300 years !!!

So then, what is the motivation of buying stock at P/E 30 to 1 ?

For people who think along these lines, bond at 5.5% might seem like a
good deal.

When you think of P/E in these terms, its not too bad an idea to buy
gold at 300 and then maybe sell it at 284.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 05:15
mozel (@Dave) ID#153102:
That sure summarized their drift pretty well. And since the states have been restructured from Christian common law Republics to Socialist Republics, puppet governments of D.C., the Governor and everybody down to the cop in the neighborhood is answerable to the blue hats.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 05:12
Dave (@god am I am alone out here....) ID#261155:
don anyone see.....shit it's nytol time's
to La Te Da and La Te F*king De.....some one come see about me.....^s6..

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 05:07
Dave (@the USof A......has by Treaty agreed to abide by UN ) ID#261155:
Mandates.....and that the UN is in fact made up of our government agencies liasioned with it.......they got a blue hat...that makes them
subject to the mandates of the UN...under penalty....mind you to preform for the UN....the U.Sof A has infact submitted to the UN authority!!!
so where does that put our Constitution.....subservient to the UN Charter......^s^.........ROFLMAO.....because it is so simple.and sweet..
nobody even seen it......^s^..the UN security Council tried to hold out for veto of indicments..but didn' get it...the whole thing is UN controlled and they have all the authority of the laws of any nation to work under and if they aren't sufficient ......they use thier OWN....
^s^.... get the blue hat......^s^.....

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 05:04
mozel (@Dave I do get your drift on the 2nd and 9th Amendments & agree.) ID#153102:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 05:02
mozel (@auric Something to win a few more Republican seats in the fall.) ID#153102:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 05:00
Auric (mozel) ID#255151:

What do you think Starr will have Clinton say?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:57
mozel (@Dave) ID#153102:
If I don't get your drift, and I don't, I doubt abyone else here does.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:56
Dave (@Leland.......I am comming from ) ID#261155:
the ninth conjunction with the second says Congress was not to construe any authority granted it..that could or would deny or disparage those rights reserved to the people....that to me means the Congress is without the authority to enact laws denying or disparaging a right reserved to me....and those laws are void.and this even before reversal.....^s^....and screw this forum if it don agree with the Constitution and the law....^s^ offense Bart.. because I do believe this forum does agree.....with the Constitution......and love it because it does....even if the frustration here is often mis-directed....^s^

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:55
mozel (@auric) ID#153102:
This is all so put up that I anticipate Clinton will be reading from a script written by Starr when he testifies.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:49
Auric (Sharks Circling Around White House) ID#255151:

Rather than execute another Saturday Night Massacre, Clinton's palace guard has surrendered to Judge Kenneth Starr. This is from Bob Woodward at the Washington Post ( story accessed via Drudge Report ) --

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:49
Dave (@you better look at the law of the decent of estate..there Mozel....) ID#261155:
and the Constitutional prohibition of impairment of the decent of an estate........^s^....

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:47
mozel (@NRA) ID#153102:
They could spend a few bucks telling people admitting to having a Social Security Number makes them subject to the jurisdiction of Congress ( and U.N. ) unless they are a citizen by reason of being posterity of a freedman. And even those folks can argue the 14th only applied to their fathers alive at the time of the 14th and that they themselves were born free on the land.

If people would examine what they applied for, they would realize they are self-declaring the existence of a social security number. NRA though is like ACLU. Professional lobbyists for citizens of the United States. Conceding in advance all the real issues at law.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:46
Leland (@Dave) ID#316193:
are you coming from. I don't think you belong on this

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:40
Dave (@well you can ask the court to enter a plea for you ) ID#261155:
Earl....but there is no right to a try the law in a misdemeanor,
and they have done away with demurrer in favor of there it is...raise issue of law under 12b....and failure to state a what I would do....upon issue of law....screw the fact......^s^...

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:35
Dave (@Leland.well they could spend a few) ID#261155:
bucks and see if congress has authority to regulate a RIGHT RESERVED EXCLUSIVELY TO THE PEOPLE!!!! ^s^....

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:33
Dave (@they all get blue hats..NOW Mozel...if all else fails get the blue one...) ID#261155:
ROFLMAO.......they superseded the Constitution with a Treaty....HA HA HAHA ^s^....what do you think all that UN Sh*T was about in June....3 New courts and all those new laws......

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:32
Leland (@Dave) ID#316193:
Since 1968, it has been a tremendous battle for the NRA. With
all of its flaws and near bankruptcy, the NRA still deserves
our support. God better bless the USA if the NRA goes belly-up!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:31
mozel (@Dave) ID#153102:
And you don't go to trial on law and fact or fact until there is a plea.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:28
mozel (@Dave) ID#153102:
I think the s.o.b.'s have treaties up their sleeve. U.N. caca.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:28
Dave (@that's right you don' get to try the law on a misdemeanor....before a Grand Jury..) ID#261155:
and there is other stuff about that a prosecutor must do..
that is in house stuff....but contempt of a consideration.
to raisin any issue of a trial of the fact!!!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:23
mozel (@Earl) ID#153102:
I guess an indictment is by Grand Jury. Dave has me on the 12b, etc. relative to a misdemeanor. But, a close examination of the Bill of Information is always in order. It has to be sworn to by the informing party. They are often slack here, too.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:22
Dave (@Leland...if you read the ) ID#261155:
9th Amendment with the gotta wonder why the NRA is offering up carrots instead of a gun regulations!!!!!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:17
Leland (Suggestion) ID#316193:
If you have sons and grandsons, a gift of lifetime membership
in the NRA is almost as good as leaving them a few gold coins.
( This is all that I'm going to say about about the gun subject. )

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:08
mozel (@Earl) ID#153102:
I guess you saw Eastwood in The Unforgiven. Thinking about your hypothetical made me realize that there probably should have been a lawyer killed off in the plot along with the crooked sheriff.

If a female on her own in life, a femme sole, was charged with prostitution at common law, the court might well have required a lawyer to appear for her as her attorney for her protection. And to sell her out. After the Bar Monopoly was created, the lawyer had to sell the client out if he got those judicial indications or give up lawyering. Collecting fees to appear for whores was lucrative and supplemented the fees for appearing for incorporeal whores, or corporations. The whole growth of lawyering might have been stymied if the common law had just allowed a whore to speak for herself in court. But, the lawyers even abuse chivalry.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:07
Dave (@La Te Da and ) ID#261155:
La Te F*king De, GOooooooooooo Silver.......

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:06
Dave (@Earl) ID#261155:
If you didn't demand an Indicment, before the Information was filed.....
you are going on the facts......not on the law.....unless you can get a 12b in.......ha ha ha ha........^s^ don' count on raising any issuer of law in a trial of the FACT.......

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 04:01
Auric (White House Cries Uncle!) ID#255151:

This Washington Post story, by Bob Woodward,
says Clinton forces are conceding to Starr.
His lawyers are hoping for mercy from Starr.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 03:29
Dave (@La Te Da and ) ID#261155:
La Te F*king De, GOooooooooooo Silver.......

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 03:24
mozel (@Earl) ID#153102:
As I think we can safely assume you have adopted the aforesaid alter ego and have an artficial person in existence in the law bearing your name and other non-physical identifiers ( Driver's license, Social Security Number, Land Registration ) , you will first need to read the charging statute. A morals charge at common law would be the State in the role of Sovereign Defender of the Faith. That's a public responsibility relating to public morals and decency. The lack of a prohibition recorded in scripture would limit the legislature. I hope it was not a public act.

You might demand a Bill of Particulars and be prepared to compel the prosecutor by questions to admit he is proceeding against you in the venue of martial law for which there is no authority in the constitution. The only jurisdictions they have are law, equity, admiralty, & maritime. If you are subject to the jurisdiction of a law martial statute, it is through your alter ego. Admit no address or number. Make them prove there is an alter ego subject to the statute as worded. Many statutes are defectively drawn. As they are accustomed to having lawyers sell out their clients, they have become very slack.

They will be impatient of any opposition. Probably if you don't enter a plea, maintaining your questioning of jurisdiction and particulars of the nature and cause of the accusation, the judge will enter a plea for you. At once declare the matter res adjudicata as you do not believe the judge would violate the prohibition of practicing law from the bench.

If it goes on anyway, there will be an amercement. Motion the court to specify the tender demanded by the court for the debt of the fine. If it doesn't specify gold or silver coin, ignore it. It's like State taxes.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 03:23
aurator (In the interest of a better understanding.........) ID#255284:
here's an engrish merkin dickshunnery

keep your pecker up!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 03:20
aurator () ID#255284:
you should try a swim at the beach christmas day, followed by a barbie..

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:58
CPO@AU (Gollum @ suspicious ID#43349 PVC ........?) ID#329186:
If my memory serves correct burning PVC gives off cyanide gas and would therfore onlybe suitable for fumigating the oval office

get gold


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:58
Auric (aurator @ 02:34) ID#240288:

As I posted earlier, you are twice blessed with land and a Y2K summer. ( still say summer in January is the craziest thing I ever heard of )

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:57
aurator () ID#255284:
enjoyable discussions. Family calls. bbll
BTW settlement details for kiwi coin purchases on classified ads delayed until I can open another bank account at a bank that actually wants the business.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:54
John Disney__A (Hurrah for Bonny Blue Rugby..) ID#24135:
For Mozel ..
BLUEBELLIES .. Spoken like a true John Reb.

For Salty ..
You are resting your national defense on the mighty
shoulders of the ALL BLACKS .. Maybe you should consider
adding a few guns.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:50
Earl (Mozel:) ID#227238:
On a personal note; when my morals charge hits the docket, can I count on you for guidance ..... {:- )

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:50
blooper (10--4 Earl) ID#207145:
Well i like you any way. Gollum I don't know about. Ha, Ha. All is well with the world. Goodnight, Goday, over and out.And don't shoot a lawyer lessun you get a chance.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:43
Earl (Bloop:) ID#227238:
Hell no I can't and furthermore, Gollum's Goldberg Variations on the lawyer's lawyer theme was a final straw. ..... {:- )

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:42
mozel (@aurator) ID#153102:
I daresay it's the same in NZ as it is here as there is still some law in common. A lawyer cannot be your attorney until the court grants permission. Lawyers got their start appearing in court as attorney for what could not appear and speak for itself: Corporations and the Crown. Just like the King was allowed to appoint a Champion to fight his combats, he was allowed to appoint a lawyer to speak for him in court. A corporation is incorporeal and has no mouth. Hence, the phrase mouthpiece for an attorney.

At Christian common law, every man spoke for himself. A femme sole was allowed to be appear by attorney. A man spoke for his wife.

People in America adopt an alter ego when they accept the benefits of a statute. It is this alter ego which the attorney actually represents. It is all those ever changing statutes that they argue over. Might be the same in NZ. From year to year the wording of the Ten Commandments hardly changes at all. And the Christian God only holds a man accountable for what he does that he intends to do. An honest to God accident is not a crime. Further, before the feudal corruption ( so the King could collect amercements ) , the punishment at common law was restitution for the victim or his family, not deprivation for the perpetrator. If the head of my household is murdered and there is no one to plant the crops, what good is it to me if he is sitting in the King's gaol for offending the Majesty of the Crown ? I want the perpetrator in my fields doing the work that would have been done by the man murdered. And the right, if he won't work, to kill him. So he is properly incented.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:40
blooper (Bye, Bye Love) ID#207145:
Bye, Bye happiness. Hello loneliness, I think i'm gonna cry. not. good night all.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:34
aurator () ID#257148:
Don't forget , we're more likely to use are fists to settle a fight if that be needed at all, than guns, and this place is so small, it's just small time. Population of, what, Seattle? You never get far away to run here. Usually it just takes 2 or 3 questions to find a common friend/acquaintance relative when you meet a stranger.
I recall travelling on a bus in Auckland and overhearing a conversation of the people sitting behind me talking about someone I knew from Dunedin about 1000 miles away.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:33
blooper (Earl) ID#207145:
Would you repeat that.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:31
Earl (Gollum:) ID#227238:
Yes of course in an unbounded case each of your assertions are true. Potentiality and Actuality supplanted by infinite possibility. ..... But lacking the actual connection to our universe of limits. A consciousness that becomes aware of an entities existence.

In your limitless vision, software is already emulating hardware. It is doing its thing daily ...... but, as yet, we are unable to grasp it.

This becomes more recondite by the minute but why on earth must we assume that these entities of which you speak are some cosmic gift? A natural part of the universe since t not equal 0. You speak of them as part of an infinite shopping list of potentially available goodies.

It should be equally valid to consider each entity nothin more than a construct and meaningless outside the range of our existence.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:25
blooper (Tween them hoop skirts, and my long underwear,) ID#207145:
I wuz glad thar weren't no condoms back then.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:23
blooper (Mozel) ID#207145:
Some of the belles were a little ruffled to. But not much. Us Rebs really ruffeled them Yankee girls up Pennsylvania way.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:23
blooper (Mozel) ID#207145:
Some of the belles were a little ruffled to. But not much. Us Rebs really ruffeled them Yankee girls up Pennsylvania way.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:22
aurator () ID#257148:
and how will mozel's christian common law system function without lawyers? and lawyers' lawyers?
lawyers are easy to dump on, Ludd knows I do it myself, my crients are all lawyers, and you ain't seen the worst side of lawyers until you have them as crients, but if you're in trouble with the law, go see a lawyer better see a lawyer's lawyer. unless you're of a type that would do your own surgery on yourself

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:21
Gollum (conundrum) ID#43349:
Lawyer's lawyer claims lawyer's lawyer told truth.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:20
mozel (@aurator) ID#153102:
I'd say a pedal bike is a Y2K item for NZ. Your petrol is a national defense materiel.

Americans don't understand what an Executive Order giving FEMA, BATF, and the like authority to live off the land means. Southerners who know their state's history understand. The title of the film was Gone With The Wind, but the food and gold was gone after the BlueBellies came through.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:19
Auric (aurator @ 01:55) ID#240288:

I'm thinking that OZ and NZ will fare better than most in the next 500 days. The reasons are: the land size, the isolation, and a smaller, less urbanized population. The 250 million Americans are mostly in big cities, and mostly unaware of Y2K.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:19
blooper (Lawyers are good deep down) ID#207145:
10 feet deep.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:18
Gollum (Death and taxes) ID#43349:
Lawyer's lawyer lies

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:16
Gollum (Men working sign) ID#43349:
Lawyer's lawyer lies here.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:15
Gollum (The saddest epitath) ID#43349:
Here lies a lawyer's lawyer.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:12
blooper (Perhaps you well armed fine folks could shoot a few lawyers.) ID#207145:
Excuse me, I meant wolves.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:08
mozel (@Earl @gollum) ID#153102:
The readiness is all, as I read somewhere. It takes some practice. They have the advantage of surprise. They say Earl X. You say, Yes ? Already you're off to a bad start.

gollum There's laws on the book. But all your active government types are like Clinton, a lawyer's lawyer.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:07
blooper (Auric) ID#207145:
Some slow ones might have to shoot sheep.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:04
blooper (Gollum) ID#207145:
Jake bernstein is offering a FREE 60 minute tape called THE COMING EXPLOSION IN COMMODITIES. I will call the number and get the tape. I posted earlier that, after the crash will come deflation, followed soon with inflation, which AG is so good at. ( witness our bubble ) .

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 02:02
Auric (Earl) ID#240288:

In a worst case scenario, folks are going to need to have guns to protect themselves from rats, wild dogs, coyotes, and other quasi-wildlife. Animals, not people will be the big threat. Some may even need guns to protect themselves from angry sheep! : )

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:57
aurator (ps) ID#257148:
our 3 months supply could be spun out by rationing, that would take us to April/May and winter..

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:57
Earl (Mozel:) ID#227238:
Just as money ( FRN's ) equals debt, banks equal government. To hold anything of interest to the gestapo, in a bank safe deposit box, is an open invitation to them. Better to take your chances with personal safeguarding, IMO. ...... and follow your advice. Say nothing to anyone under any circumstances.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:55
Gollum (@mozel ) ID#43349:
The sad part is that it is no crime for a federal officer to lie.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:55
aurator (sheep™~~~~~auric~~ewe slay me...) ID#257148:
ah yes
mammals that have never been domesticated though thrive around human habitations. I have seen rats the size of my thigh scuttling amongst beggars sleeping on Delhi Streets in the frozen winter morning. Searching for those that have succumbed overnight.

Rats! Polynesian rats were eaten by the Maori, but, with the very first European ships came the Norwegian rat. Nasty beasts. unpalletable, so unlike sheep™ and long pig.

I should imagine a knowledge of the herbs of healing might be valuable in the worst Y2K scenarios?

I reckon NZ's worst vulnerability may be that the Rest of the World ( ROW ) hasn't got itself back to exporting oil. Despite our large gas reserves, NZ is utterly dependant on imported oil for our 2 cars per household and 1 boat in 5 lifestyle.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:50
Gollum (@Earl ) ID#43349:
Of what is a triangle made? Is it a thing of substance like a tree? I think not.

Is it then a thing of imagination as a Cheshire cat? I still think not.

What is geometry and switching state?

If a triagle is drawn upon a sheet of paper, was not the triangle there before the lines were drawn to denote it?

Does the boolean state of off need any sort of switch to so denote?

Or the state of on no less?

And if none of these, then does a conscious thought require some piece of neural jelly to contain it?

Was it not so even at the moment of creation?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:50
Earl () ID#227238:
Auric: It's probably not unique but here in Puddle City, the coyotes are already making the local press. They be snatchin' up many of the suburban yuppie's pet kitties and dogs. ..... Something must be done about it. ..... If they reduce the number of feral cats it will be a blessing.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:46
mozel (@Holding Onto The Gold) ID#153102:
I've been thinking about the FACT that Congress enacted NO LAW for the seizure of gold according the web link posted here on the topic of confiscation. Congress did pass a bill of indemnity. The web site took no note of that.

I've been connecting those dots with the story related of how bank managers would call depositors to come in and there would be a Treasury agent who took the gold and gave greenbacks at the rate of $20.67 per ounce. An apparent gain of .67. Just compensation ? Hard to argue it was not at that time and place. In the street outside the $20.67 of greenbacks were as good as gold.

The part of the fifth amendment which will protect you is the part that says keep your mouth shut; it's your right. Not the part about just compensation. They have made it a crime to lie to a federal officer. The only thing that can't be used against you is nothing. So, that's all you can safely say.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:44
Auric (Another Thought) ID#240288:

Diseases from animals will be a problem in rural areas as well. Coyotes, wild dogs, and rats will proliferate in profligate numbers. They and the diseases they carry will be a threat to cattle, pigs, and sheep™.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:40
Earl (Gollum:) ID#227238:
First line: A point well made. My assertion the result of parochial thought.

Emulation? In the abstract only. A switch is still only a switch, after all. Assuming, of course, that we provide no necessary first cause in terms of initial productive capacity. .... Too parochial again {:- )

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:36
blooper (Anybody got a BIG PIN?.....Thar she blows.) ID#207145:
Shivver me timbers, we're all poor.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:34
Earl (Mozel:) ID#227238:
A daily occurence. Without introspection.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:34
Gollum (@Suspicious ) ID#43349:
PVC is tough stuff if it's the middle of winter, hands numb, starving....

I guess you could try to melt it in a fire ( does PVC melt? ) , but there's all that ammo in there....

Meanwhile those punks from down the hill are getting closer....

Maybe the hacksaw blade could be wrapped in oil cloth and plastic and duct taped to the outside or something.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:34
blooper (Greenspan and Rubin will be burned in effigy. The rats.) ID#207145:
How dare they stop our gravy train buy turning up the printing presses. BLOW UP THAT BUBBLE BOYS.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:29
The bubble can take it. Keep them dollars comming. JUT LIKE JAPAN. Lets have us a REAL BUBBLE.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:29
Gollum (@Earl ) ID#43349:
Without knowing the pedigree of our own Creator it is a little hard to say for the first time ever.

Ha ha, silicon eating worms, but of course! Pesky little nanobots.

Perhaps at any level introspective consciousness is profound no matter how much it trivializes itself.

It is intersting to consider Asimovian philosophists seculationg as to how the true nature of death is when the software finally succeeds in emulating the hardware in software too.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:26
mozel (@Earl When you no longer know your name.) ID#153102:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:25
blooper (GREENSPAN reflates US stock market) ID#207145:
He's such a great guy--till the market goes down. Then where is the rope.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:24
Earl (Mozel:) ID#227238:
Terrific opening line. ROFL!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:22
blooper (Greenspan the goat, Reflation causes Jap. style equity bubble.) ID#207145:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:22
Suspicious (Gollum / Thought about that but figured ) ID#287312:
it would rust away quickly. If the turkey isn't resourseful enough
to get it open, well you know :{

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:22
Envy (16th) ID#219363:
Elvis died today. Shed a tear for the king, baby.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:20
Earl (Gollum:) ID#227238:
Agreed. .... And in consideration, two things come to mind:

1. Should a self replicating silicon surrogate come to pass, it would mark a radical departure from the original ( natural? ) process. For the first time ever, a creature of the evolutionary process will have successfully assumed the role of creator. Assuming of course, that his creations will know that they know and successfully weather the hazards of adaptation. After all, in that brave new world, silicon eating worms are equally posssible.

2. Viewed in successive stages; at what level does the process of introspection and personal identity become a silly enterprise?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:20
blooper (JTF) ID#207145:
He will reflate again after the crash. This futile effort to save the market and this economy will cause inflation. That inflation will last many years. Gold will go up year after year. Hallaluya.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:18
Gollum (@Suspicious ) ID#43349:
With maybe a hacksaw blade taped to the outside.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:16
blooper (JTF) ID#207145:
Greenspan is to blame for this bubble. He over stimulated this economy, caused an equity bubble almost exactly like the Japs did in 86, 87, 88.
He will go down in history as the reason for this crash. Part of the reason.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:14
Suspicious (Survival capsule) ID#287312:
Made of: One 6 dia. X 9 PVC with endcaps cemented on.
Suitable for burial

Contents: 10 ea. 1oz. maple leafs
1 ea. Tarus PT-99 stainless 9mm
200 ea. rounds of 9mm ammo
1 ea. Note that reads:

No there's no food here stupid. It would spoil. If with this gun and this gold you can't acquire food, your too stupid to survive anyway.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:14
mozel (@Earl) ID#153102:
As I got that bit of legal trivia from a lawyer, naturally no useful information came with it.

But, on the broad question, there is a provision in the US Constitution heretofor known as liberty of contract. The prohibition was laid on the States ( naturally ) . It should be obvious that many New Deal enactments have abridged our liberty of contract. Social Security participation, Minimum wage law, affirmative action law, etc. etc. By the subterfuge of concurrent jurisdiction, to which the State governments treasonly agreed in return for the use of grants of green lucre from D.C., liberty of contract was abridged.

Moreover, the ninth amendment would have secured it. If there was a will to secure it.

In your state constitution, there were also no doubt protections and protections also came to us in common law. That is to say, your state's Christian common law constitution before it was amended in whole or part in the restructuring of state governments into Socialist Republics. Without free markets and freedom to enterprise, you cannot live free, can you ? We ain't birds.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:04
Gollum (@Earl ) ID#43349:
True, only too true.

But then the early CHONS ( carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, sulfur ) forms undoutedly had a failed beta test or two before they got something right.

Turing was one of the earliest.

As to questions of identity wherin does entity reside? We are process not substance.

Just as a candle flame is a process rather than the glowing chemicals passing through it's space.

Just as a triangle is there whether it is demarked by smears of graphite or not.

Our bodies substance dies, is sloughed off and replaced day by day. Even the individual atoms in your bones are not the same ones you were born with. Some say every atom in our bodies is replaced every seven years.

The computations of even the most complex computer are because of the switching states and not the material of which the swiches are made. Relays, transitors, mechanical, biochemical, or layers of silicon it matters not.

We are the fist, not the hand. The wave, not the water. The flame, not the wax.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:02
JTF (As Oldman said, this bear will not be pretty,) ID#57232:
because so many baby boomers do not know we have a bear. Also, there is a mindset that develops over a long bullish period -- namely that the market cannot go down -- longterm.
I agree with blooper that we will have a major bearish period, enough to scare AG into reducing rates -- partly to save WJC's neck, and partly to stimulate a flagging economy. If the markets have any life left - and they might - given the mountain of accumulating money from the babny boomers, they will go up.
But, if we are approching a deflationary period, the market rally this time may not be very strong. And if there are too many layoffs, the subsequent debt defaults might be too much for the economy, and too much to be corrected with low interest rates. Look what happened to Japan -- low interest rates had little clear benefial effect in preventing a depression.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 01:02
Earl (Aurator:) ID#227238:
Geeez! Sometimes I feel so inadequate. And when it happens this late in the day there's no chance for recovery. ...... But thanks anyway. 'Cause I did not know that. ... Turing. I had visions of a 10 speed bicycle. With a chip, of course.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:54
aurator () ID#257148:
Earl ( belatedly )
Hear! Hear!


The Turing Test that we now understand is something like
the following: The interrogator is connected to one person
and one machine via a terminal, therefore can't see her
counterparts. Her task is to find out which of the two
candidates is the machine, and which is human only by
asking them questions. If the interrogator cannot make a
decision within a certain time ( Turing proposed five
minutes, but the exact amount of time is generally
considered irrelevant ) , the machine is intelligent.
This test has been subject to many different kinds of

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:54
Earl (Auric:) ID#227238:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:53
Earl (Mozel:) ID#227238:
In what context was such ruling made? Narrowly defined or broadly applicable? ....... Also: Except for the proscriptions originally imposed on government and the implication derived therefrom, is there any portion of the Consititution that specifically speaks to the inviolability of free markets? I just don't recall seeing any.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:51
blooper (Post crash) ID#207145:
AG will reflate. Gold rises then.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:50
Auric (Earl 00:37 Charms, Gazeefuses, and golden eagles (delete the en ) ID#240288:

We shall NOT watch this together! Yes?: )

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:47
Earl (Gollum:) ID#227238:
Which raises larger questions of identity that I am ill prepared to respond to. ...... As much, but not only, because I know not your reference to Turing?. Is he a prototype of the Gates branch? If programmed in Win 98 it will surely turn out to be another failed branch. ...... Perhaps a Beta test of NT5.0?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:43
mozel (@MC) ID#153102:
A dog that bites a human being once can never be trusted. The dog has transgressed the law of the pack and he's outlaw and consumed by guilt thereafter. He will only go on to worse. That's why at common law a dog got the first bite free, but thereafter his owner was liable for the harm done by the dog.

The confession of market intervention in Gold and in the Stock Exchanges by American government is like that. Hardly anybody knows it but the Supreme Court ruled long ago that Americans have no right to free enterprise. I think they think they do. I think in this and other matters American government has transgressed the tacit law which among people is the same as the law of the pack among canines. This is hardly the first bite taken by this government. And an outlaw government can only go on from worse to worse.

This is the context in which I see the perversion of the process of law on public display in D.C.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:37
Earl (Auric:) ID#227238:
Last week, as I recall, we had agreed that a roll or two of eagles in a front pocket, lent a man a certain charm. At least insofar as the term be applied to matters of romance. At the moment I fail to see an extension of such arrangement to matters of disease. But, willing to be convinced. ........ Plainly, a case may be made for the deception of the former leading to the onset of the latter. Yes?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:31
Gollum (@Earl) ID#43349:
If irony would be amusing, given only the smallest fraction of time it took for our carbon based forms to evolve, there is a risk our offspring will have eyes of silicon and nerves of copper with no fear of vacuum as they radiopathically whisper psalms to the great gods Turing and Gates.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:27
Selby (Can't match you) ID#286230:
Old Gold: Your congratulations may be premature. I can't compete with your daily --some times several times daily-- predictions that gold was about to go up---for over 2 years and a hundred dollar decline. However I'm not one to turn down an invitation and can only say in reply that- so far-- I am barely worthy of your warm regards.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:25
MC (URL referenced article ) ID#350291:

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:24
Earl (Gollum:) ID#227238:
A Creators amusement? LOL. ..... On that basis the present branch should remain a source of mirth unto infinity ...... and free of interference. That's not to say however, that the number of clowns allowed onstage will not be subject to some revision.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:23
Auric (Earl--Immunity) ID#240288:

Would like to think a roll of Gold coins protects against them bad bugs. It offers some immunity to the currency virus loose in the world today. Why not against disease and pestilence also, eh!

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:21
MC (Report on Clinton Testimony) ID#350291:
Just read the Washington Post article in tomorrows Post. I have been trying to figure out why Clinton suddenly capitulated and agreed to talk so soon, and before the November election! Could it be because he has to ask forgiveness BEFORE the economy crashes and all of those baby boomers lose it all. They wouldn't ( we won't ) be so forgiving of him at that point. Remember that closed door talk with Rubin and Greenspan some time back. They probably told him the handwriting was on the wall. Watch out.


Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:20
mozel (@auator) ID#153102:
Credit to Earl. Hear, hear for the wisdom in it.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:14
Gollum (@Earl ) ID#43349:
Perhaps it depends upon how long we continue to amuse.

Dinosauers grew boring.....

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:11
Earl (Gollum:) ID#227238:
A work in progress? ........ Or a withering branch?

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:08
Earl (Auric:) ID#227238:
Not a pleasant prospect. Can we hope for some sort of selection process?

If one exists it will be based on the immune system and will likely have little to do with all those things that human vanity holds dear. .... Pity. I was such a handsome fellow. Good family background 'n all. {:- )

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:07
Gollum (Tracks in the mud....) ID#43349:
We give many reasons to why we do as we do. But underneath the folds of cortex rationalizing, scheming, and philosophizing there moves the same old reptilian mindless beast that crept up out of the waters of past geologic time.

We protect our territory. We seek to replicate our genetic code.

We pretend to be holy as we partake of each offered apple.

We build great towering structures of wonder as do the ants and termites.

We engage in cooperative social endeavor as do the bees.

We destroy our own as do rabied dogs.

We seek to hold dominion, not only over these, but our own kind too.

Upon occasion, though, we paint a Mona Lisa or pen a Midsummer nights dream.

And upon very rare occasion, we willingly drink the cup handed to us.

Which that old reptile would never do.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:01
aurator (mozel-- Here! Here!) ID#250121:
If men are running for public office and not away from it, things are amiss.

Date: Sun Aug 16 1998 00:01
Auric (And Furthermore...) ID#240288:

The report said at least 675,000 Americans
died from the 1918 flu. The population today
is in many ways more vulnerable to an
epidemic than was the case in 1918. There are
some very bad bugs that have now established
a foothold in our population. They are only
being contained by the most advanced,
expensive, and computer dependent technology
available anywhere. During a prolonged
disruption, those bugs would get loose in the population and wreak havoc. And don't forget
TB, AIDS, and...influenza. The numbers are
simply staggering.

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