Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:57
Earl () ID#227238:
Mozel: of government. ...... Yes but only in our perverted/inverted view of the matter. A healthy government being one that is solemnly pronounced moribund. Like gold; kick it soundly and it fails to respond. ..... {:- )

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:50
Gollum (@Bingo) ID#43349:
It might just be Geraldo being Geraldo. Sometimes he seems more like Charles Bronson walking through central park after dark than anyone sane.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:46
mozel (@Earl That's genius for a litmus test on health of government.) ID#153102:
If men are running for public office and not away from it, things are amiss.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:45
Gollum (@mozel ) ID#43349: YOU think those disputes existed only in the new world and did not exist in Europe? No one cares to be governed so much as they want their neighbor to be governed.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:43
Bingo (It's the strangest turnaround in opinion I've seen) ID#263254:
in a long time. Remember, Heraldo Rivera quit over a dispute about censorship on a specific broadcast about JFK on 20/20. Said the specific program was shelved by the big cheese of ABC at that time.
Now he's Dicky Clinton's best buddy, who can do no wrong. Something smells bad, really bad.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:40
Gollum (@mozel ) ID#43349:
There are always multitudes of nuances. In the end it always comes down to survival.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:38
Gollum (@Earl ) ID#43349:
Ah yes. Endless cycles. Endless variations. Seemingly chaotic at times but the same refrain in various key and chord.

Like the tide and shifting sand.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:37
mozel (@Gollum) ID#153102:
Do you really think that explains it ? Do you think there was no dispute over who OWNED the land, no dispute over the King's unbridled power to tax, no dispute over taxation to pay the priests of the Englush church, no dispute over freedom of the press ( Stamp Tax ) , no dispute over LAW ( the Vice-admiral's summary court versus the common law court of trial by your neighbors ) , no dispute over the King's standing army ?

I don't agree America has any obligation to protect anybody or anything overseas. I think America is about freedom here. And if they want it overseas, let them follow the example. If they don't that's fine, too.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:30
Earl () ID#227238:
Gollum: As long a men advance government any role, save the most mundane, the cycle is certain to continue. Heaven knows the private affairs and arrangements of free men can be less than ideal. But at least they are lacking in the sort of nuttiness that can unhinge entire nations and economies in one motion.

Until men regain a view government as something other than a benefactor, there is no hope for redemption from the endless chaos. Governments must be clasped in irons. Tightly. ....... We will know we are close when candidates for public office must conscripted from prospective jury rolls. ...... I don't believe we are even close.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:19
Gollum (@mozel,sharefin) ID#43349:
In the old country, people bearing arms was a threat to the King.

In the untamed wild new country, bearing arms was a neccesity.

There was a conflict of interests.

Lose the King, or lose the arms.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:15
Earl () ID#227238:
Gollum: Nor do intelligent men need to settle their differences.

Excellent ......... and all the more profound for its understatement.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:15
Gollum (@themissinglink ) ID#43349:
Ha ha. Good point. Wars are ost like that too. Everyone is ready to defend against the mistakes of the last one. So they lose to forgeting about the weak spots of the one before that.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:13
mozel (@sharefin) ID#153102:
I personally don't give a hoot how you live your life downunder. And have no plan to interfere. What I don't understand is why you Queen's country people can't return the courtesy. But, I'll tell you this, there's a clue here as to why it took guns to get the King out of America. I don't know if he was unintelligent or our forefathers were unintelligent, but there was a dispute about the right to keep and bear arms among other issues, and it took guns to get his agreement to leave the house. That's how it is with Kings and other forms of government.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:11
George__A (Goldfever) ID#433172:
I have gained more understanding of the economic factors underlying society by reading your poems than from any other source. I thank you.

The spiritual side of economics is hardly mentioned by most but possibly directly affects the process to great effect. So the dreadful effects of economic winter may turn out to be a blessing in disguise?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:10
themissinglink (70 year boom and bust cycle) ID#373403:
We goldbugs will live through this coming depression with the wisdom to always hold real assets, only to lose it all in the next paper asset boom 40 years from now. We have a countercyclical boom and bust which is just about to boom.


Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:06
Grizz (Enough time spent on these topics for now.) ID#431366:
I shall now turn this darn device off and retire with a good book.
But it has been an enlightening discussion.
Thank you one and all.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:05
Gollum (@sharefin ) ID#43349:
Nor do intelligent men need to settle their differences.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:05
aurator () ID#250121:
au contraire. I have found myself defending merkins' right to bear arms in discussions down here. The subject has only arisen at my instigation. I usualy start with I understand why Americans bear arms, and if I lived there, I would too. This is usually met with hoots of derision from my friends who, each one of them, would not favour any liberalisation of gun laws here.

I understand why you bear arms, but I don't think you understand why we don't. I am sure, that though I know very little, I know more about your history, than you do of ours.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:04
Auric (1918 Flu More Deadly than WWI) ID#240288:

At least 20 million, and maybe as many as 40 million people died in the influenza epidemic of 1918-1919. 20 million may have died in India alone. ( hope this URL is typed correctly )

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:03
strat (problems, problems...) ID#93241:
Mozel--It's pretty damn complicated, isn't it? I simply try to keep things simple. KISS ( Keep it simple strat ) . Not very easy these days...

Grizz--I share your sentiments...

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 23:00
Gollum (@Tantalus Rex ) ID#43349:

When I left off, we had come to a fork in the road. One path led downhill and i\one led up.

One goes down into deflation. No jobs, hunger and riots for the masses, but great plenty for those lucky enough to have some assets.

One goes up onto inflation, where the peoples savings are stolen and used to refinance the next business cycle, which will then repeat. People will begin to spend because they can only lose by not spending. Companies will start to earn a buck, even if a buck isn't worth what it used to be. Markets will start to go up......

Japan is now at the fork. Many are urging it to take the inflation path. The people's savings are there for the taking. Who can resist?

Say they don't take that upward repitative path.

The currency will continue to weaken. The peoples savings will be lost anyway, but lost to foreign interests instead of domestice restarting of the machinery.

Which path to take?

A question as old as the cosmos, die in the eventual loss of all entropy or die in the rebirth of the next cycle.

To be or not to be.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:59
Grizz (Envy - your 22:45 is a very eloquent piece.) ID#431366:
You nicely described much of what being an American means.
Thank you!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:53
sharefin (Mozel) ID#284255:
Intelligent men do not need guns to settle their differences.

And I am one who is glad that, 'us downunders' have no need to understand what you are talking about.

There is more than one way to live ones life.

Gone for real.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:53
USAGOLD (I continue to hear reports.....) ID#276111:
that a two tier market has developed for gold. Small amounts transact at the posted prices ( London -LBMA, New York-COMEX, et al ) but if you want large amounts -- from any source including BIS -- the price goes to $320-340. No, this is not posted simply to verify ANOTHER's previous allegations. This comes from a source not connected to ANOTHER in any way ( that I know of ) . What this means is that any hard gold purchased below $320-340 by the private investor takes advantage of a system willing to live or die by the artificially controlled posted price in the $280-300 range. The best way to prosper/survive ( depending upon your viewpoint ) is to purchase physical metal and store it for the possible upcoming spike. There is no way of knowing when the dike will break nor when the spike will occur; therefore, futures, options etc. should be considered speculative gambles and fodder for the short sellers who seemingly control this market at the moment. In other words: Refuse to play their silly game. Physical ownership solves the timing problem and simultaneously offers the most conservative avenue for medium to long term asset preservation. They can't take it away from you -- no matter what. Make no mistake, free market forces will enventually cause the dam to break and gold will challenger its old all-time high. As ANOTHER has pointed out several times, physical gold acquired at these levels takes advantage of an international monetary system in the throes of failure. Investors need understand that there is no subsitute for the real thing -- hard yellow metal near enough to feel the warmth of its glow. And to convey that opinion is the reason for this post........... USAGOLD

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:51
mozel (@strat) ID#153102:
I understood you to say you had adopted a disguise so as not to attract attention. I believe we pursue happiness in a series of negotiated transactions in property to enable those pleasures which gratify. And the right to that pursuit is private and individual and subject to no man's judgement so long as he harms no other or his property.

The further shakedown: Greenback devaluation. Increased abridgement of your right to the pursuit of happiness. Increased Demand for Slave Labor to the State ( Tax on Labor ) . Increased Ground Rent on Land. Further Abridgement of the Right to Travel. Increased License and Permit Fees and Events. Increased Asset Seizure. Increased reporting, monitoring, & surveillance for offenses against the law martial. In general, much less of your life, liberty, and property for you; much more for them.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:51
pot O gold__A (pot O gold) Mozel) your 22:29 post) ID#170196:
Same here: Can only use one bed at a time, one table, or one anyother thing. Moneys nice to have ( and I have some ) The gut takes more than food to rest easy, and float in bed.


Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:49
Grizz (I dread the circumstance where I may have to use deadly force) ID#431366:
I would prefer to avoid it altogether by not being in the wrong place
at the wrong time, or presenting an irresistable target of opportunity.
But I do not wish to unduly circumscribe my daily activities either.

I would prefer to BS my way out of the situation.
Failing that I would prefer to exit, stage right.

Next step in the escalation is deterrence - a subtle glimpse of steel.

It would truly complicate my life immensely if I had to use deadly force.
It would be a last resort. Grizz backed into a corner with no way out.

Notice in the above escalation that there is no call to 911.
Yes, I would call before the last stage if I could.
Phone in one hand and a gun in the other.

I do not wish to be in the situation used recently on television ads for a home security alarm system. The ad purports that the recording of lady calling 911 was a real call. She is in her bedroom after hearing glass break and someone downstairs. She is whispering to the 911 dispatcher that someone is in the house. She is pleading with the dispatcher {and thus the police} to please hurry. Again and again she whispers my God, Please hurry.

I want more than a telephone in my hand as I hide in the closet.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:49
Earl () ID#227238:
Sharefin: Again, I agree with you and would only add that the ability to add force to the equation is strictly limited to the province of my home. That I consider absolutely inviolate.

Stout doors and sturdy locks are the first line of defense. And they have been tested. ..... I do not carry firearms beyond my property line.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:48
aurator () ID#250121:
Thanks, I've heard of the Opal file, and recall discussing some of it about 10 years ago with a demented proponent of same. As they produce not one skerrick of evidence I filed it in the illuminati basket.

There it remains.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:46
sharefin (Envy) ID#284255:
Yes there are plenty of guns here.
But generally people don't use them to express their agression or fear.
That type of consciouness is not behind the act.
The police just busted a guy 30 miles away from me with a huge arsenal.

But guns are not a problem here. Yet.

I choose to go on a holiday to the hills for a short period of time only.
Only because I have read too much on Y2k.
And I expect, if things go wrong
That many will not know how to act sanely.

I am not digging a hole to hide in.
Rather removing myself temporarily.
From the centre of chaos.

As Paul Milne says
If you're within 5 miles of a 7-11 you're toast.

I think all towns, cities have the potential, to turn upside down,
For a short period of time.

As Tolerant1 put it, the 'actual reality' coming,
May shock and shake many.

I choose to distance myself from the many who will not understand this.
Those that will act out of character, temporarily.

This I do for my family and for myself.
Temporarily just for a few months.

Then hopefully things will start to settle down.
And I'll be out of the hills in a flash.

I like my home comforts too much.
And enjoy the company of many friends.
To be a neurotic hermit.

Nothing like a temporary holiday away from the masses.
To have the time to smell the roses.
To sit around the campfire.
Amazed by the heavens.

Then it's back to work as usual.

Off to the hills for the day.
A good friends 75th b/day today.
Time to celebrate life in the hills.
It's only 30m away.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:45
strat (sharefin) ID#93241:
The emphasis on guns in America comes in part from having to throw off the Redcoats ( no offense intended to the Commonwealth, water under the bridge ) and perhaps, more importantly, a rather resistant and populous aborigine population, known as Indians, which resisted European settlement rather violently, and for well over a century.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:45
Envy (US vs. the world) ID#219363:
The difference with gun ownership in the US doesn't have anything to do with the crime rate, how protected people feel, etc, it's much deeper. In some countries, it's considered a family obligation to do certain things, say, commit a few years to military service, or maybe own a certain amount of gold for emergencies, or maybe give away a camel to the bride's father, whatever. In America there is a history of gun ownership - it's in the constitution that we have the right to bear arms, and we have a history of militia, those being the folks who gave us independence. It's a deep cultural symbol - a man ready to jump up with a gun in the middle of the night to defend his country against an invader, and American's, especially the rural folks, feel it's their duty to own weapons. It's a different mind-set. It isn't bad, or good, it just is. It's sort of hard to explain. Equally difficult to explain is the American tradition of not trusting the federal government, again, you would almost have to have been born and raised in America to understand it, and to understand why so many people seem so paranoid. They really aren't, we just look at our government a little different that most of the rest of the world. Our government isn't like, say, the United Kingdom, where the government is just there - people in America sort of think of their government as, well, being allowed to exist until they get really sick of it. There's a constant discussion, discourse, that resides just below the surface of political discussions in America that sort of says Hey, don't get out of hand or you will be replaced. American's are always watching what goes on in their government, and smart politicians are keenly aware of it.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:44
Auric (Grim Reaper) ID#240288:

It has always been true that in times of social upheaval, disease and malnutrition kill many times more people than violence. Even in shooting wars, that is the case. I may arm myself as insurance against the unlikely, but BY FAR the greatest threat to my friends and family will be disease and malnutrition.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:43
Bingo (Mozel and Studio- re: the new symbol on greenbacks...) ID#263254:
Are we talking about the emblem of the Federal Reserve Branch, from
which the green back originates...which indeed has been changed
on new greenbacks

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:43
But I've made more money shortin' the stock market in the last four weeks than I've made buyin' gold over the past four years! As I've said before, THE BULL MARKET IN EQUITIES IS OVER, THE BULL MARKET IN HARD ASSETS IS ABOUT TO BEGIN!! DOWN HARD MONDAY!! RALLY ATTEMPT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY!! DOWN HARD THE REST OF THE WEEK TO NEW LOWS!! We watch this asset inversion together, yes? SHORT SPYDERS!! NO MARGIN CALLS, PREMIUMS OR EXPIRATION DATES!! Heh..heh!!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:43
Earl () ID#227238:
Aurator @22:23: Sorry I missed your comments earlier. ....... but in a word: Eggzactly correct. Though, in my mind at least, your order is reversed. It's public malefactors first and government second as physical threats. ..... and anyone who wishes to live his life without interference must give weight to those possibilities.

BTW, as a practical matter, is there any reason at all to form and fund a government, any government, if it will not protect its citizens from threats, foreign or domestic ..... If our experience is any indication, the concept of govenment has devolved into a process of providing pseudo gainful employment for hosts of misfits. Both elected as well as civil servants. Moreover, judging by past comments from youse guys downunder, your experience is not markedly different from ours. Even though it might be done with a certain regal panache, the net effect is still the same. Bummer.

Just be greatful for a large land mass and small homogenious population. ..... that is better educated than ours.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:34
Tantalus Rex (@Gollum - Great Post!!!) ID#295111:
I really like your last post. That's telling it like it is!!! a la Howard Cosell. I'll have to check later for your continuation.

My better half is asking me for a PUMP. Gotta go to work. CIAO.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:33
strat (mozel, a wee bit more...) ID#93241:
I'm not at all uncomfortable around people who are armed as long as the guns are holstered and not being pointed at someone ( I got too many dead friends already ) .

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:32
mozel (@Grizz I thank God our grandfathers had enough sense) ID#153102:
not to turn in weapons. Freedom is so precious. Those declarations of rights made on this continent are golden gold. The downunders have no idea what we are talking about.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:31
EJ (Donald) ID#45173:
Good post on deflation. The reporter didn't do his homework, though.

Interest rates can't fall further than zero.

In the early 1930s, Swiss banks offered 100% negative interest rates. The logic of this becomes more apparent when you think in deflationary terms. If you believe that your ability to generate earnings from capital is close to zero, then you need a guarantee that you will break even if your investment in a business fails. The only way you can stimulate investment in business is to lend $1M of capital with guarantee from the lendor that the loan can be repaid. Of course there were a lot of restrictions on how these 100% loans could be used, but the fact that this practice existed at all is a shock to most.


Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:31
Grizz (I do not plan, nor do I wish, to go blastin) ID#431366:
I contemplate only the defense of my home and community.
That may entail a shotgun as somebody comes through my door or window.
That may entail a rifle at longer range as I stand guard duty
on a windswept pass to prevent predators from entering my community.
Such passes are the doors to my community.

Like I said, if I could trust government to prevent circumstances
from reaching the above conditions - then I would gladly spend my
money on more computer toys and more BOOKS.
I would also like to be assured of continuing stocks at the grocery,
so I could use my closets for things like a wardrobe for a ladyfriend.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:29
strat (mozel) ID#93241:
A pauper? No, I'm not a pauper because I work. I simply prefer a modest lifestyle. Money and possessions might satisfy my appetites in life ( don't ask me how many fishing poles I've got ) , but true happiness is a function of one's inner life. My happiness, unlike many I know, does not come from owning a fancy car, or having one's minion's do my bidding, or even owning gold ( which I do ) . Happiness takes many forms, including contributing to the welfare of one's neighbors ( which is a real trick these days ) or making one's community a little better off for having been around, or catchin' a few 'cats? Believe me, through thick or thin, I find some happiness. As far as this numbered account thing, what's that? Social Security #? Something else?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:28
Earl () ID#227238:
Aurator: For many here, it is/may be a cultural thing. ..... If looking at firearms as an extension of one's manhood can be considered cultural.

Most would subscribe to Grizz' comment below. That is, an arm or two for sporting purposes and no more. Perfectly fine and laudable. But that is not our present circumstance. And until we return to our founding document nothing will change. It will only become worse. With or without y2k.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:27
sharefin (Strat) ID#284255:
Kudos to you.
You have a good attitude.

I have been faced with a gun pointed at my belly.
Loaded and aimed.

And I exited stage right.
Glad I did'nt have a bigger gun.

We have crime here too.
And in the bigger cities
Some stalk the streets at night armed.
But not many.
Then you hear of some loopy killing a few doz because he flipped his switch.
But generally many here feel and think like I do and Aurator as well.

I gotta agree with you.
When in Rome do as the Romans do.
But one doesn't have to go to Rome.

But there still is a big problem in the US
Where ones security revolves around guns and force.
And one lives in fear.

It all comes down to a personal choice of where and how one chooses to live one's own life.

But if Y2k is bad - no choice.
You'll all be stuck in the middle of this sort of consciousness.
With the agressive and paranoid blasting away.

A bigger stick doesn't make a bigger man.
Just a more dangerous man.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:27
goldfevr (Donald @ 21:39 & Sharefin @ 21:37) ID#434108:
Donald, ( forgive me repeating from previous post/s of mine: )

Real Estate is one of the Sacred Cows of the paper-money/artificial-credit world-economy,
that will be ( -is being ) reduced to 'hamburger' .

Sharefin, ( re.: Investech's Emerging Markets Index collapsing: )

They could have read my 9/27/97 post ( excerpted below ) ,
and saved themselves all that unecessary, redundant
research effort....belated as it is.
And by the way, how much does it cost, their subscribers?

from 9/27/97:
When the tent collapses,
it will not be the center-post that goes first;
it will be the side-postrs,
and even the stakes. ...

And regarding the anticipation of re-inflation...
I suppose anything is possible, even another
'Weimar-Republic-paper-money' re-inflation, but I doubt it.

All the powers & principalities of this world, cannot force people to spend, invest, consume, borrow..
if they do not want to.

For people are, by their very inherent, God-given nature,
free & independent souls,
who ultimatley abide by a higher order,
than the material world.

If banking, financial and governmental institutions
do not align themselves, as servants of the people....& thus
in harmony, with the basic innate nature of
what it is to be human...; then -

all their monstrous paper-money machines,
& artificial-credit banking engineers,
cannot force the people lof the world...
to spend, borrow, consume, stimulate, if they choose not to.

See Bank Credit Analyst's, charts on Velocity of Money,
such as The Velocity of Demand Deposits, NY Banks.

Velocity reveals just what it is that

no governments &/or banking/financial colluders
can dictate or control:
velocity of money reflects
humanity's innate freedom of choice..
of whether to spend, invest, save, horde, or do nothing
but survive, and wait.

Accelerating velocity, is built on growing confidence
and thus on increasing spending/investing/buidling/borrowing...

But, without growing, sustained confidence...
& growing, accelerating velocity....then...without that kind
of sustainable, stable pattern.... then...

but instead... then ....with...
collapsing confidence ( -for very good reason/s ) ...and
decreasing velocity, i.e. -falling turn-over... then -

what is revealed, is that ...
most people are more and more prepared to save & save,
and hunker-down,
and prepare for the proverbial rainy-day of...of..
Economic Winter ....
which is over-taking the entire world,
like a long-overdue, postponed,
built up torrent releasing & inundating the national economies of the world...

as a bloody dam of paper money & artificial credit ...
- a veritible sea of red ink breaking thru the vain controls'of
the powerless powers that be...

their feeble attempts to ignore, hold-back, postpone,
or avoid...this inevitable deluge..

for, in the name of truth, and honor, and dignity,
the piper must, and will
be paid. a terrible price...

that might be lessened for the courage of bold leadership,
that could still resurrect & salvage the world's economy
on the soundness of gold money.

And yet, fate seems determined, by blind men leading the blind,
to usher in
a frigid economic winter,
of collapsing debt... and unavailable credit,
in a flooding sea of worthless paper currencies
of every nation, hue & stripe...

as want & cold.....
continue to grip and envelop the world.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:27
Envy (@aurator) ID#219363:
I'm sure the culture is different. Of course, keep in mind that here in the states, most of the people who live in the city down own guys either, and wouldn't know what to do with one if they had it. It's mostly the rural folks who keep guns around, and those are mostly for deer hunting.

But also - and I don't have the stats handy, keep in mind that when the Aussies began to reclaim military weapons, that there were tons of machine guns coming in, and a lot of people wouldn't give them up. And I'm not talking assault rifles, I mean machine guns, the big ole things that they use in wars. Guns are out there, just as they are in the states.

Please don't get the impression that everyone in the states walks around with a pistol tucked away under his shirt - many cities don't even allow guns, and it is indeed a very serious matter to shot someone, even in self-defence, it doesn't happen often.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:27
3-cubed (DONALD) ID#344239:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:26
mozel (@Earl) ID#153102:
Boy, Oh boy. Read that link posted to the secret history of Downunder.

I think the downunders are indoctrinated sap suckers for One Worlder crappola. They're always singing the political correct whine on line. Nice guys. Just naive.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:26
Gollum (@Tantalus Rex ) ID#43349:
True, And it goes farther than that.

When the markets are going up and everyone thinks they are doing well, they spend.

They buy cars and housese and the makers of cars and houses do well.

The makers of cars and houses raise cash by selling stocks to the eager buyers and expand.

All is good.

Competition drives different makers to do what they can to help their own stocks perform.

They downsize to become lean and mean. Their stocks go up.

People begin to fear for thier jobs, slowly at first.

So instead of spending, they begin to save. Since the markets are doing well thay save by investing in stocks.

More downsizing.

Foreign money is drawn in. And foreign economies, losing money, begin to run into trouble which leads to cheap foreign imports and domestic producers find themselves unable to compete.

More downsizing.

So far those on the losing end of downsizing have been able to find new jobs because of all the new startup companies and fast food places doing good business because of all the cash in circulation from the sellers of stocks.

But things start to go badly. Net negative trade balance begins to take a toll and earnings turn down.

People quit buying stocks, quit spending. Money starts piling up in the banks. Markets go down business goes into recession.

Banks lower rates, but companies don't want to borrow.

Startup companies get into trouble and jobs are lost.

Deflation is on its way.

Savings rates go up.

But the peoples savings will lose it's buying power from the inflation brought into play by the government trying to combat recession.

.... to be continued.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:23
aurator () ID#250121:
Exactly! You have no alternative in the US, but to own guns for your protection. I was earlier going to mention about the degree of security we feel here as being absent from you fellas, you described it far better.

It took me a long time of listening to you folk to realise that my and my culture's ideas of weapons were not appropriate in the US. I now believe, as you state, it is because the merkin gobmint has abrogated its duty to protect citizens, that you need to bear arms, to protect yourselves from your gobmint, and from the loonies about you. There really are few other tasks of gobmint of greater importance than protection of citizens, and yours doesn't do much good at that. ALthough it likes to think it protects others around the world too.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:20
Earl () ID#227238:
Sharefin: If the lack of lawlessness on your city streets is so ingrained in the populace; why would you feel compelled to head for the hills? ...... Taking you at your word, life downunder is one of unbridled tranquility and uniform civility. Such being the case, y2k should present no more than an opportunity for a renewal of community spirit. Remain in your home and enjoy the conviviality of your neighbors and friends.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:19
Tantalus Rex (P/E Ratios) ID#295111:
If a stock is selling for 60$ per share, and the company earns 2$ per year. Then the P/E ratio is 30 to 1. ie 60 divided by two.

That is it will take the compoany 30 years to earn 60 bucks.

WOW, anybody who invests in COCA-COLA has a lot of guts!!!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:18
Bingo (tolerant 1...I can only hope that the look of stupifaction) ID#263254:
on our less informed and disbelieving brethren will be delayed
til Jan. 1, 2000....more or less for their comfort, as I think
reality will come around much sooner for the masses. It always
hurts when you don't face life ( reality ) head on.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:17
Grizz (I would love to turn in my weapons) ID#431366:
Except for maybe a .22 rifle & pistol for marksmanship practice.

If I could trust the national defense to do its job.
If I could trust local law enforcement to do its job.
If I could trust both of them to not turn on me.

It would make life so much simpler and more secure.

But when a neighbor calls for help -
and no help arrives until it is too late.
Then we have reason to take matters into our own hands.
For better or worse.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:17
aurator (It's a cultural thing....) ID#250121:
In NZ there are many guns. They are mostly owned by farmers for rabbit & possum shooting. Not saying that a shotgun or a .22 can't be used against people, but it's just not the way disputes are solved. Even way back in the gold mining days of last centuries, when many miners had guns with them, disputes over claims, frauds, women, were almost universally solved without guns or knives. If a miner brought out a gun or knife to settle a claim, he'd be run out of town.
It is not dissimilar today. I have NEVER known any of my friends who live in the cities EVER to own a gun in the city, NEVER.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:15
Auric (sharefin) ID#240288:

You may indeed be right about Y2K and the US. My guess is that guns will do very little of the killing. It will be things like starvation, cholera, and exposure to winter elements that will cause 99% of the deaths. You are doubly blessed in Australia. A relatively small population on a continent sized country, and the fact that Y2K will occur during warm weather. Our large and mostly urban population in the US will be our Achilles heel.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:14
Tantalus Rex (Price To Earnings Ratios) ID#295111:

The P/E ratios today are absurd. Consider a P/E ratio of 30 to 1.

What that means is that it will take 30 years to get you money back based soley on constant earnings.

That's not even taking into account Inflation!!!!!!!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:11
Earl () ID#227238:
Sharefin/Aurator: I cannot emphasize this too strongly.


Given that reality, what would you suggest for an alternate The list of alternate choices is a short one ....... and total helplessness doesn't appear on mine.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:06
Grizz (Earl - I didn't mean to attribute all that I wrote to you) ID#431366:
Only that you are concerned that showing Gold ownership is a red flag.

I used that as an example that if we are concerned about advertising that we own Gold now, we will be even more so after Y2K or during any chaos and anarchy that may ensue from that or other causes.

To all regarding guns 'n such.
We merkans seem to be in a Mexican standoff with the criminals.
Earl can't dismantle his fence and locks and offer a hand of kindness.
He will have anything in his hand stolen and perhaps get shot too.

We may have a similar uneasy standoff with our own government.
If we were not armed to the teeth they would walk all over us.
I know that such beliefs may be dismissed as pessimistic paranoia.
But we have examples where just such walking over has been done.

The worst thing Klinton has done is further undermine our trust in government. The best action a future President and Congress could take is to give us reason to trust them and all governments - local & state too. Perhaps then, and only then, would we lay down our weapons.
But given the last hundred years {since Lincoln and the Civil War} - we would always be looking over our shoulder. It may take a hundred years to undo the damage done in the last hundred and especially since the 1960's.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:05
mozel (@strat) ID#153102:
The way I read your tale, between the unorganized and the organized criminals, you have been reduced to denying yourself your right to the pursuit of happiness and to adopting the disguise of paupery. I know you have your digital account. So far. But, the shakedown has just begun.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:04
Tantalus Rex (@Gollum - like a 'run' on a bank) ID#295111:
When everyone goes to the bank to withdraw all their cash at the same time, then I think that's called a run on a bank. The Bank collapses cause they create money they don't have.

It's the same with a stock crash. When everybody tries to collect money from their stocks, it means everybody is selling and there are no BUYERS.

telling stock investors not to panic and to hold onto their stocks.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:00
Envy (@Sharefin) ID#219363:
Are you in Aussie or N. Zealand ? If so, and don't think I'm for massive gun ownership or anything, you guys do indeed have a lot of guns. So many, in fact, that the government had to pass laws to recall a large number of the more dangerous ones. It may not be a political issue there, but you better bet there are plenty of guns in your populations hands, plenty.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 22:00
Tantalus Rex (@Gollum) ID#295111:
I agree. In order to get money you must SELL the stocks, but more importantly there must be a BUYER.

And when withdrawing cash from a MUTUAL FUND, the fund reduces its short term cash position to fill the order, but sooner or later, it must be FORCED to sell. This is where the BEAR market comes in cause RETIREES need money to live such as PAYING MEDICAL BILLS.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:57
sharefin (Auric) ID#284255:
Is this the NWO way of population control.

Let every American have 20 guns and 20,000 rounds.
Then introduce Y2k and let them start blasting.
It will only take a week of massive fear and 50% of the pop will be dead.

I am astounded at the attitudes which necesitates massive gun ownership.

I guess if your neighbours has 20 guns you should have one more than him.

If Y2k turns out bad, the last place in the world I would wish to be, would be the US.

Most people here own no guns.
Most people here feel no need to own guns.
Most people here don't feel threatened.

Now why would I want to leave this comfortable world.

Something definately has gone wrong in the great old USA.
Paranoia to the extreme.

If you choose to leave your paranoid country.
You have to leave your guns and your paranoia behind.
Otherwise you'll create the same world you are leaving.

As I said.
There are places on this magnificent world, where people live in peace.
Where they feel comfortable and untreatened.
Where they have different consciousness levels.
That don't include violence, fear, agression.

There is a better way of life - believe me.
I am living it and enjoying it to.

If Y2k gets bad, know what's going to happen in the US.
Yuky, Yuky, Yuky.
Bang, Bang, Bang.

Not me, no fear.

I'll be puffing in the hills, with amiable fellows - good company.

No offence - just my humble opinion.
To all who feel stronger when looking down a barrel.

Esp when the barrel is bigger than the other fellows. ha, ha, ha.

You gotta be kiddin

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:56
Bingo (Sorry to say, the lovely island of New Zealand is ...) ID#263254:
not politically and economically pristine in the least, as much
as I would hope her to be ( got rellies there, you too Aurator ) .

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:56
Donald (Falling prices mean tough times; retail prices join the slide.) ID#26793:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:52
Envy (@Puetz) ID#219363:
I'll be paying a lot more attention to what you have to say from now on, now that you've said you are purchasing puts and have been for two months. That's laying it on the line, walk'n the talk'n. Hats off to you and yours.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:52
strat (sharefin 21:30) ID#93241:
If it's any comfort, I'm one American who feels safer without a gun than with one. I've had two friends murdered, been robbed, and have had friends mugged & robbed. I used to own a slew of guns, almost got shot by police, by crooks, etc., etc. and finally concluded if I had no gun, I'm no threat to anyone. I realized real life ain't like the movies. Even if you use a gun in self-defense, the police ( or prosecutors ) will go after you. So I adopted another strategy: I don't wear fancy clothes, I drive an old car, and I'm low profile. That's safety. When you got to carry a gun, you're not safe anymore. ( I'm gonna get roasted for this post... )
Obviously you're not from the States. What's crime like in...down under?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:49
Gollum (@Tantalus Rex ) ID#43349:
They may have THOIUGHT they were putting their money into stocks, but really they were just giving their money to the nice man who gave them the pieces of paper. The money has moved on.

Now they THINK they have cash in stocks which they can withdraw when the time comes.

Stocks are NOT like a bank or a bond a safe deposit box or s gold coin.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:49
Earl () ID#227238:
Sharefin: I support your sentiment. Unfortunately, we 'Mericans are are forced to deal with our world as it is presently constructed. Not as we would wish it to be. ....... I have a 6 ft chainlink fence and heavy steel gate. Still can't keep the bastards out. They cut through the fence and steal anything of value that is not secured. Though the word secured is a relative term. If it can be cut loose and spirited away they will do it. I speak from about a dozen personal experiences.

Real truth is that property crime in the US is not a sanctionable crime. Relief is found with one's insurance agent. The police can no longer be bothered.

Given that circumstance, disarming those whose only failing is a penchant for preservation of personal life and property is akin to something out of a fairy tale. ...... but we're always open to suggestion.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:47
mozel (@DownUnders Who Don't Comprende') ID#153102:
Well, I'm content we all know who and where we'd rather be. Maybe if you folks had fought for independence instead of receiving it from the Queen like a welfare check, we'd have more in common. If, in fact, you got any.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:47
Grizz (Sharefin - you are quite correct) ID#431366:
I would hope that Y2K will blow over without no blood in the streets.
And that freedom and liberties don't need to be defended by individuals
because the government of the dear USA and others will do it for us.
But many of us Yanks have no confidence in our government
nor the government of the UN or other nations
with a few exceptions such as OZ, NZ, UK and Canada.
( Am I being prejudiced by listing only some English-speaking countries?
- maybe you guys & gals could nominate some others )

We dream of ourselves as the shining champion of freedom everywhere - that some little besieged country trying to hang on to its freedoms can ask us for help and we will stand beside them. This is a noble ideal & goal.

BUT - our Presidents and Congresses and specifically the current bunch
have made us a despised enemy and meddling bully everywhere. We have left them oppress our own people and subvert our Constitution. And we allow the same petty tyrants to flourish in city councils and local school boards. We have turned our backs on the ideals of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

A small minority of us hang on to those ideals and the hope that someday we can set things right again. Through votes now and perhaps bullets later we will try. We need as many people on our side as possible.

Gold can be a means of bringing democracy to the people or
Gold can be a means of oppressing the people.
I see little effort to prevent the latter.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:46
aurator () ID#250121:
I know what you mean. Our merkin friends do not know how alien such gun-talk is downunder, but then again, the more I listen, the more I comprehend just how such a world-view is necessary in the US. If you declare a constitutional right to bear arms then all your citizens gotta be mad not to have bigger guns than the next guy. It's a feedback system born of insecurity. Like I said, it's a US thing, this gun-madness. We got rugby and the All Blacks....they got guns....
I just hope that our NZ customs are up to preventing our merkin friends carrying guns when they visit.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:46
Donald (Japan faces deflationary spiral; first year-to-year slump since 1974) ID#26793:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:45
Explorer (Specifically) ID#22882:

Homestakes indication that it intends to let those Prime Resources shares other than its own, to trade freely on merit; will allow a first class miner PRIME RESOURCES to seek its own level, to the benefit of both HM and PRU stakeholders.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:43
Puetz (Stock market crash) ID#222167:
Realistic: My call for a crash in the US was wrong last
year. I lost everything I had in S&P put options last year.
I haven't touched puts until about 2 months ago. I been
buying them since.

I may be wrong again, but I don't believe so. Right now,
four weeks after the peak, the DJIA is falling faster than
it was at this same stage in 1929, 1987, 1990 Tokyo, and
1997 Hong Kong. This is a sign that the 1998 US crash
will be steeper than any of those.

My prediction -- based on time cycles from previous crashes
-- is that the worst will come during late-September or
early-October. The only rally in this time frame should
be late-August or early-September -- but it's not a rally
I would trade.

Time will tell if I make up from my previous mistakes, or
whether I'm the perfect contrary-indicator. I'm still
looking for the DJIA below 5000 ( maybe even below 3000 )
in a month and 1/2.


Steve Puetz

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:40
Tantalus Rex (Finklestein & Metz) ID#295111:
As I say, I like Finklestein. He's given BRATapagliga a good fight on the CNBC debates every week.

My favorite all time bear is METZ at CIBC Oppenheimer. The guy is just great!!! I agree most everything he says. He packed it in though.

BUT!!!...They say that when the bears pack it in, the bear market is just around the corner.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:39
Donald (Property slump hits Shanghai) ID#26793:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:37
sharefin (Jim Stack) ID#284255:
INVESTECH FINANCIAL UPDATE: Saturday, August 15, 1998
We reiterate that from a technical standpoint, a bear market is clearly
confirmed by both our Negative Leadership Composite ( which turned negative
on June 18th, just 4 weeks before the final top ) , and by our Breadth
Disparity Index ( which began tumbling in February ) .
But our concern right now lies with the emerging markets, which are back in
the midst of an economic collapse. Our Emerging Markets Composite has now
fallen over 20% in the past 4 weeks... and that was AFTER already being down
over 50% from last year's high! The Russian stock market shut down
temporarily this week after falling 25% in just seven days. Nothing seems to
stop the downward spiral, and now the IMF is running out of both money and
Are we on the verge of a global deflationary crisis? That's a question no
one can answer yet, but it's a question that we certainly can't rule out.
And it compounds the danger, as well as the difficulty in developing a
strategy. For example, while gold stocks are being depressed by recent Asian
events and news... the pressure to reinflate could suddenly send them
dramatically higher. And while the Japanese market has dribbled lower this
week, ANY stability or bottom in Asian stocks would likely launch the Nikkei
onto a strong bull market.
Our portfolio allocations to these sectors are minimal and, we feel, still
warranted. They will be increased if the risk of global deflation subsides.
Meanwhile, over on the bear market front, the bear trap has snapped shut
with losses in most stocks now too large for investors to emotionally
exit... yet losses in the blue chips not even qualifying as a 10%
correction. We do think the neutral/ ( or favorable ) monetary climate won't
stop the bear market... but will make it more painful with 3 steps down, 1
or 2 steps up, etc. - just as we've been seeing.
Without that monetary confirmation, we favor a conservative bear market
strategy, and won't be adding to short positions except during overbought
Latest Readings...
MONETARY PROFILE : +13, frozen positive ( w/Fed policy ) .
NEG LDRSHP COMP : -100, heavy bear market DISTRIBUTION
BREADTH DISPARITY: +348, some short-term stability this week.
NASDAQ: -98, very bearish readings.
SHORT-TERM INDICATORS... suggest weakness on Monday, followed by a mid-week
rally attempt...
PRESSURE FACTOR: -13, halfway to oversold region.
CALL/PUT RATIO : -52, now in rally attempt territory.
FUTURES PREMIUM: 14.59, finished the week with trader optimism tumbling.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:36
Auric (sharefin) ID#240288:

There was a time, not all that long ago, when that was true for America as well. This country, while growing richer, has deteriorated in just about every other aspect. We made a horribly wrong turn somewhere in the last 35 years.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:36
Tantalus Rex (@Grizz) ID#295111:
You're the second guy posting a bearmkt site. this hour. These 'bear' sites are popping up all over the place.

This will give the Spin Doctors a better fight.

Try this one, I like Finklestein.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:35
Donald (Deputy Chrmn. of Russian CB addresses public on national TV. Depositors should remain calm.) ID#26793:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:34
mozel (@Grizz) ID#153102:
You need to think harder on this, I think.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:33
Earl () ID#227238:
Grizz: Huh? Did I really say that? ..... I don't think so. .... Is there an undocumented reading comprehension level here that I'm violating? .... If it be your intent to use my words as an entry point for something obverse, feel free to do so but skip the attribution.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:33
strat (Tantalus Rex 21:27) ID#93241:
3. Tax codes

Everybody's running from the taxman!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:31
Tantalus Rex (@3-cubed) ID#295111:
How often is the market commentary updated? Daily I assume.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:31
Auric (Grizz) ID#240288:

Here's a site for you. This fellow is so
bearish, he starts off his web site with
GRRRROOOOWWWLL! Interesting place.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:30
sharefin (My thoughts on all this gun talk.) ID#284255:
All I can say is,
God you Yanks scare the living bejesus out of me

No offence but.
I don't live in a country where people feel the need to arm themselves thus.
Maybe Y2k might change all that.
But at the moment no way.

Did you know that there are many places, where people live in relative peace.
And feel no need to do this.
Maybe if you sold your guns you could afford to change to a country where this is so.

I know I would if given the choice.
It is a nice warm secure feeling to not lock ones doors at night.
To walk the streets at night with no fear in ones heart.

And to look strangers in the eye and fell comfortable.

I guess Y2k is going to bring out the worst in Yanks.
Sure glad I don't live there.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:27
Explorer (Jims@19:30) ID#22882:

If Homestake takes Prime Resources out, it will be a negative development for both Homestake and Prime shareholders. Primes contribution will be just a pimple on the elephants butt, the HM elephant has too many mines, or specifically, many sources of potential problems.

Since Homestake already claims all of Primes production as a result of her 50.6% ownership, it will be a useless exercise to take her out.

If she needs Primes cash hoard, best she sells her Hemlo properties for cash and more shares of Prime, this will result in greater HM ownership in Prime and will set Primes shares free to seek their fair market level; this to both Homestake and Prime shareholder's benefit.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:27
Tantalus Rex (Baby Boomers) ID#295111:
I have nothing against Baby Boomers, cause I'm one myself.

So who's the culprit?

1. Baby Boomers for investing in large caps?
2. Spin Doctors for coaxing these Baby Boomers?

Answer? Both are.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:27
Donald (Head of Russian CB cuts vacation short; returned to Moscow today; devaluation rumored for weekend.) ID#26793:,1051,ART-13243,00.html

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:26
mozel (@Morex ) ID#153102:
Uh, Parner, you may likely find the only people in the market for a tanker of oil will be middlemen.

And the organized crime element, the foragers with orders to live off the land, the FEMA Alpha Teams with a tenuous connection to the Wizard in Emerald City.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:25
Grizz (Mozel & Earl - nothing personal - it just shows) ID#431366:
That what I thought about Gold being used only for jewelry, fillings & circuitry was correct after all. Since before Y2K I can't use it to buy groceries and after Y2K I will be too scared to use it for fear of drawing unwanted attention to my humble self and redoubtful cave.

Since folks ain't used to seeing Gold used as commonly circulating coinage to buy groceries, beer and gasoline it won't likely be accepted much after Y2K either. It will be something to show off only to close friends - like girlie magazines.

Reckon I'll stick with Silver - it's safer - and cheaper since I the tiniest Gold coin is 40 or 50 bucks!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:23
Tantalus Rex (More on Baby Boomers & Retirement) ID#295111:
I mean, most of us know that baby Boomers have been pumping money and LOTS OF IT into DOW stocks planning for their retirement. If a bear market starts anytime soon, then....
what happens when they begin to withdraw funds in ten years time


Maybe, just many, EITHER
1. There's a Bear market in Dow Stocks lasting 15-20 years.
2. Two Bear markets, one starting in the short term, the other as Baby Boomers start to withraw funds needed for retirement income.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:20
Donald (Russia has 1500 banks. Half will collapse if there is a devaluation.) ID#26793:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:19
Tantalus Rex (AG & Rubin) ID#295111:
Both AG & Rubin can't prevent the stock market mess that is due soon.

If a bear market in the DOW begins soon, what a BEAR it will be!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:16
Donald (Anyone know what the Glamis news is? Nothing on the net except this.) ID#26793:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:15
Earl () ID#227238:
Morex: No offense was taken. We understand where you are coming from and where you would like to go. ..... Just an opportunity for a little jocularity at no one's expense. .... hopefully.

Trouble with middlemen is that they have the king's ear and his law on their side. Must relieve ourselves of the king and his bastard law.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:12
Tantalus Rex (Interest Rates) ID#295111:
I'm not so sure AG will take down interest rates at all
Most likely, rates will stay the same.

Before he does something REAL with rates, he'll open his BIG NOUTH first. In the short term, his BIG MOUTH is just as good as effective. That is, IN THE SHORT TERM, he doesn't have to raise or lower rates at all.

Just like CB's have THREATENED to sell most/all their gold.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:03
3-cubed (NICE MKT.SITE) ID#344239:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 21:02
Tantalus Rex (@weiser Aug/14 23:16) ID#295111:
I have so many problems that I have a problem cataloguing them!!!!!!
Which problem are you referring to?
More importantly, what is your solution

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 20:41
Squirrel (I can't do this alone - I need reinforcements) ID#287186:
I admit it is a sharp fencerail to sit on.

The caution expressed here about advertising would also apply after Y2K.
You might have Gold but you could not easily spend it.
For the same reasons espoused below by Earl and Mozel.

We are stuck.
Maybe we should just wish for a 2-mile asteroid or rapture.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 20:38
MOREX (Earl) ID#347172:
Rough tactics were not intended. My point was, that with all the gloom and doom put forth here, the coming point of trade may be at the actual commodity producer level not in the abstract world of futures markets. This would allow the actual producer access to the physical currency that we all seek. Denying the 'middleman' the easy, non-involved living he has enjoyed for so long. Again, no harm intended, amigo.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 20:33
Dutchman (ALL) ID#215235:
When does AG begin dropping interest rates?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 20:31
crazytimes (For Prechter fans, here's his latest comments on the coming crash....) ID#342376:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 20:24
blooper (Recession) ID#207145:
After the great October fiasco comes a powerful 3 month rally. the bull has one more snort left. By march, heavy selling is back. The bull has breathed his last breath. Lower intrest rates have started to cause inflation, and gold has begun a rally. The dollar is losing ground. It is a bad time to face a new currency. The Euro appears to have its own problems due to recession in Europe. What a way to start a new millenium.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 20:21
mozel (@Morex) ID#153102:
Why sure, pardner. And if you want an after dinner cigar to cap off your big day pumpin', send somebody around. No Amex or paper accepted, you understand.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 20:20
Earl () ID#227238:
Morex: So sorry, Amigo. We have a gent hereabouts from OKC, by name of Studio R, ( or Studio IS, I forget now ) who is graciously providing us goldbugs with all the crude our gold plated hearts can handle. And he's such a nice man. None of that ruffian Texas stuff with firearms and such.

Be warned we're peaceable folks here. ...... Mostly.

Long and short of it is: Yer offer's too high. ..... {:- )

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 20:13
blooper (Horrible crash) ID#207145:
October bringgs the Armagheddon crash. Years of profits will be wiped out in just a few days of panic. By late October, just as in 1929, and 1987, there will be a rally lastingmore than 3 months. Then down thru the middle of the year approaching 2000. This October rally will be very powerful.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 20:13
Earl () ID#227238:
Mozel: LOL! ... and a good idea as well.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 20:11
Earl () ID#227238:
Squirrel: I must work on coming across as even more dangerous ....

That wasn't my intention at all. ...... Rather, it is: To avoid waving a red flag, when it will likely serve only to attract more attention than compensation.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 20:05
MOREX (Possible?) ID#347172:
Ladies and Gentlemen! Come one, come all. Pull your tanker truck up and I will fill it with Texas Crude, Black Gold, but the I do not take American Express only physical gold. Don't mind the big guy with the rifle, he will not hurt you. Sure. The 100,000 volt fence around the installation is just to keep the wild animals away. Sure. Come one, come all.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 20:04
mozel (Advice to the Tree Rodent) ID#153102:
Get the NY Regent's exam from around 1955, before the waterdown. Go down to the newspaper and the TV and radio station and announce you will award a one tenth ounce honest to God American golden eagle out of your inventory to the student who scores highest on the test which will be given on ___ at your store. Get more mileage on test day and more on award day. If you want to lie low make sure you say I donated my last gold coin to education in this county anytime people are in earshot.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 20:00
jims (To: Mozel - well put; and the Japanese) ID#252391:
Well said Mozel, no other comment necessary.

Re the Japanese: The mistake is made in assuming the Japanese wnat a strong curency. They hope their banks can be bailed out throught the dollar/yen/ bond spread and a cheap yen for export enhancement.

The government there is in the hands of the status quo business click. They haven't the imagination or the concensus to do anything dramatic. To sell their bonds and buy gold what will that do for them Give them a strong currency and further hasten deflation.

The yen will go to 150, gold will break down this week and take silver and Platinum with it. A high volumn spike may give the shorts sufficent volumn to cover in and give us a real bottom. Metal trends are down, commodity trends are down, stock market trends are down. Current prices will provide heavy overhead resistance to any rallies of anything.

I favor the scenorio: crash / interst rate cuts/ inflation, but we are a ways and many dollar and points down from that happening and I wonder if the powers that be will move in time to effect the best of negative possible scripts.

I'll repeat what I posted earlier: A close over $5.25 silver would be the first sign that the metal big bear scenorio is negated.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:58
Earl () ID#227238:
Squirrel: Following up on your secondary thought; I was not casting aspersions upon your strategy or intentionally suggesting that those who fear the future have no place in it. On the contrary, it was but a low key way of saying that risk and reward are always coupled. Especially, in periods of stress. At such times, a low profile is not cowardice. It's prudent.

Why invite the wolf in, if he was headed for your neighbors place? .... Rhetorically speaking.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:54
goldfevr (my '2nd cycle' attempt: the nature of repeating cycles - in monetary & economic panics) ID#434108:
the url listed at the bottom can lead you to
other web-site links,
where the following paragraphs,
are excerpted from:

Large areas of the world have low paid laborers who have almost unlimited access to
U.S. markets. This has resulted in regional deflation, and over supply in many sectors.
Contrasted to this, the more developed industrial nations have just engaged in a
massive bail out of many LDC financial institutions and banks.

This causes increasing instability. Large bailout borrowing within industrial countries
fuels inflation after a time lag. it also fuels blow offs in the market. But then comes time
to pay the piper. Bailout money finds its way into the markets. They explode upward,
but briefly. Ultimately, supporting the deflationary labor rates on the peripheral, cause
inflation at the center of the business world. As this disparity and imbalance grows,
another panic becomes inevitable.

When the markets suddenly awaken to increasing costs ( the inflation effect ) on the one
hand and decreasing consumer purchasing ( the deflation effect ) on the other, the
moment of panic is defined.

The pending crisis will mark the fourth such occurrence
since the founding of the United States.
Careful analysis of each panic
not only reveals the repetitive nature of the walk
on a slippery path analogy,
but also provides lessons later ignored by policymakers. ...

This is excerpted from a site-link, on ...
which is apparently not available on the same server
that is on.
The site's extension includes: ~magicelf/Longwave.htm.

The following, accessible URL,
was my starting place:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:54
Grizz (Go get 'em Squirrel!) ID#431366:
You should get some militaristic tattoos.
And start carrying a sidearm on a day-to-day basis.
That's a western tourist town right. Gotta play the part. ;-O

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:52
Squirrel (Earl - I understand - Thanks for the insight) ID#287186:
I must work on coming across as even more dangerous.
Tough fence to walk while I have the store.
Already there are those who think I am too radical
and thus they don't shop in my store.
I've gone after too many sacred cows around here
like poor schools, government spending, etc.
I have not learned to keep my mouth shut about such things.
I may have to take some lessons from Grizz.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:49
mozel (@cloutt) ID#153102:
What you are missing is that gold is political. It takes more than paper to buy gold among sovereigns. It takes black gold or something tangible in demand. Like weapons. Otherwise, gold sales among sovereigns are made for strategic reasons.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:42
Earl () ID#227238:
Squirrel: I was not suggesting that you would be viewed as a dangerous nut. On the contrary, my fear was that you would not be viewed as dangerous enough, under the projected circumstances. ..... If you get my drift. ..... {:- )

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:41
cloutt (Pondering) ID#344253:
If Japan holds 300 billion of US Treasury notes and there is a 300 billion Gold supply held by the CBs, the solution for all of Japan's ecomomic woes is at hand. They buy the Gold and back their currency, then they are the world's bank. They dictate terms, not Mr. Rubin. Obviously, their new prime minister and MOF have not read Judy Shelton's Money Meltdown. It is beyond me as to why they don't do it? I must really be missing something.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:41
Squirrel (Another thought - to Earl and others who quail at the risks.) ID#280214:
I am preparing myself to defend my most important stocks.
They can have the post-it notes and decorative stickers.
But a real nutcase with powder and lead will be defending the rest.
And come that time - I may get nuttier
just to make sure they get the point.

We can not defend this nation and our collective freedoms by
quivering in our hidey holes while the oppressors have free reign.
Damn it - I am not doing to let 'em have it without a fight!
I know there are others here with the same intentions.
We will do our best. With or without others' help.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:39
goldfevr (the cyclical nature of monetary & economic panics) ID#434108:
The re-copied paragraphs, below, are from

which I discovered/re-discovered, thanks to post-ers,
most recently - I believe - by Oldman - thanks.

And thanks to UrbanSurvival 's site,
and these related sites,
for this valuable, timely research.

Here is the excerpt, from the above url, regarding
the nature of repeating cycles of monetary & economic panics:

Proposed Conclusions:

Large areas of the world have low paid laborers who have almost unlimited access to
U.S. markets. This has resulted in regional deflation, and over supply in many sectors.
Contrasted to this, the more developed industrial nations have just engaged in a
massive bail out of many LDC financial institutions and banks.

This causes increasing instability. Large bailout borrowing within industrial countries
fuels inflation after a time lag. it also fuels blow offs in the market. But then comes time
to pay the piper. Bailout money finds its way into the markets. They explode upward,
but briefly. Ultimately, supporting the deflationary labor rates on the peripheral, cause
inflation at the center of the business world. As this disparity and imbalance grows,
another panic becomes inevitable.

When the markets suddenly awaken to increasing costs ( the inflation effect ) on the one
hand and decreasing consumer purchasing ( the deflation effect ) on the other, the
moment of panic is defined.

The pending crisis will mark the fourth such occurrence since the founding of the United
States. Careful analysis of each panic not only reveals the repetitive nature of the walk
on a slippery path analogy, but provide lessons later ignored by policymakers. ...

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:33
mozel (@jims) ID#153102:
It's not so simple. It took them decades to do it, but they changed the culture. They replaced the Christian common law Republics in the states with Socialist martial Republics. They replaced a nation of people trying to exercise individual responsibility according to scripture with a don't ask, don't tell crowd of amoralists. They destroyed the memory of gold as honest money and constitutional money. They made the saver a loser, the object of derision. They have trumpeted NO INFLATION. They have broadcast BALANCED BUDGET the SURPLUS. It doesn't matter. People aren't listening. The people are so dumbed down they can't even follow the cues of the Wizard anymore.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:32
Squirrel (Earl - I have a small retail shop.) ID#280214:
I sell anything from bulk honey, scrapbook supplies such as stickers,
pre-paid phonecards, business supplies, art supplies, kerosene cookers,
glass playing marbles, copies, faxes, e-mail and Internet access, etc. etc.

So what is special about selling Gold & Silver coins too?

But I do see your point. The average Kitcoite may be announcing to those around him that he has Gold.

But we have to get off the pot. Having Gold and Silver isn't going to help much if there is not enough out there to be used for money when the time comes that we need it to take up such a role.

I also hate religious prosletyzing - but perhaps Goldbugs need to do some
besides just to each other. One of the surest ways for a revolution to fail is when the general populace views the minority as dangerous nuts that need to be turned in to the proper authorities for the good of the community and all that rot. Even worse is that with effective propaganda the authorities could have the populace help them hunt us down.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:30
jims (NateDogg @10:56) ID#252391:
Several hours back I noticed you inquired of this board recommendations for individual gold stocks. I didn't notice much response as we seem to be taken up today with the stock market crash to be, the y2k crisis ( coming we rae told, and gun information ( my god ) .

Streams of posts will now follow light night does day about the impending doom of 2yk ( Note: 2yk posts are usually very long and particularly harsh on anybody who does not share the concern. )

I'd advise you look into HARMONY Gold Mining of South Africa. The falling rand helps its revenues and hance profits, its reserves are priced very low in relation to the stock valuation. See John Disney posts on the issue at the Golden Eagle site if your modem is fast enough to down load its information and you can rumage through the information at that site to find John's previous articles.

Also, check out Stillwater Mining ( SWC ) Palladium and Platinum producer - probably the only precious metal stock actuall up on the year.

Dispite the derision Homestake ( HM ) receives on this board it will undoubtably be a major beneficary of money flows into gold stocks when they begin. The chart formation of this issue is currented better than most due to the purchase of shares of a big German investor Von FLink ( sp ) . Also if HM gets the other half of Prime Resources it already doesn't have that they are seeking the company ( HM ) will be even stronger.
AND FOR SILVER - the stock speculators long term call on silver has to be Sunshine Mining ( SSC ) , be advised that grandmothers' and children's funds need not apply for investment. This stock/company may be worth to zero before it turns based on silver prices over $8 which, dispite the fall in Comex stocks, may not occur soon enough.

OK Y2K bugs letem' rip ...I've taken up too much band space
Start your posting NOW.....

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:24
Squirrel (Gold American Eagles are not sacrosanct re confiscation) ID#280214:
Anybody that makes executive orders can order anything they please.
It would be just like our the USG and Klinton to say Eagles are exempt.
Then turn around and renege on the deal. Just like EPA & other agencies
who have told property owners that what they are doing is sanctified
only to later tell them that it doesn't meet regulations and they must
tear it up and do it over. State & local gov'ts do the same.

I shy away from numismatics because I am looking for the most Gold or Silver for the least money. And I am preferring 9999 while I can get it.

P.S. I understand the London Silver market demands 99999 Silver.
Are there any coins minted with that purity? Or any small bars, etc.?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:22
Earl () ID#227238:
Squirrel: Your small gold coin sales strategy seems to be predicated on a continuation of civility in your small burg. Also seems to lie in direct contradiction to your survival strategy and preparation. ...... At least judged by your posts.

Should your neighbors and customers suddenly develop an undue fondness for your inventory, the outcome might become .... how shall we phrase it? ..... somewhat messy.

He who has had the foresight to prepare for the generally unforseen, will not likely be viewed as a visonary. Especially if evidence of such vision is on display in some remote portion of the countryside. ...... Away from prying eyes. Yes?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:14
jims (From the Prudent Bear) ID#252391:
The coming week should prove quite remarkable and certainly
volatile. On Monday we have the President’s testimony and on
Friday we have options expiration. Throughout the world we see
extraordinary financial crisis and economic troubles. We expect
the US Administration and central bank, in conjunction with
other governments and monetary officials to act to stem the
growing crisis. Increasingly, we see signs of desperation that
efforts of government officials, central bankers and the IMF are
completely ineffective. This has all the makings for a debacle.

At some point maybe not too far away the average man is going to realize that all the meetings of all the government officals are not going to accomplish he desired effect of stabalizing the current failing situation.

How much will the the HK authorities spend to defend the falling HK stock market. It will be interestikng to see that battle develope next week. My question is when do they sell what they bought on Friday. How to they sell without upsetting the apple cart. Is this how the People's Republic of China takes over HK by buying it up through the stock market. They started a little early but that may be the effect.

Government intervention may get a bad rap if the HK buys don't turn out to be profitable.. What will that do for the PPT.

As bearish as everything is here on this board for the stock market we've got to be in for one heck of an early week decline followed by another bounce that CNBC can trumpet.

Interest rates will come down. The inverted yield curve has to be tellingthe FED they have a recession on their hands. Why not cool off the dollar and lower rates - a little inflation has got to be better than jobs losses and recession. At some point this view will be adopted and may give gold a rally to many will use as a point of excit.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:13
Squirrel (Monday - slickster tries on a fresh rubber) ID#280214:
I should perhaps wait until Tuesday to set prices.
Slick Willy could convince the sheople he is a great guy
and that all is well with the world.
Thus Gold & Silver prices sink even further.
Or Starr could catch him with his pants down. ;- )
Then Gold & Silver prices may go up - though I doubt it.

What I do not understand about all this media coverage on Monday.
What do they have to cover? {other than each other's coverage}
Isn't Grand Jury testimony secret? {until leaks the begin}
Klinton may give an address after the testimony -
but what do we expect from that except more whitewash.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:13
Suspicious (I hear the fat lady warming up) ID#287312:
For the U.S. equities market and the Klinton presidency.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:11
mozel (The Only Certain Use For A Gold Coin) ID#153102:
is in the restoration of constitutional Christian common law government in the states. Why golden eagles:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 19:07
Earl () ID#227238:
Mozel: I cannot verify 29. It was several days before my arrival on the scene. But today is another matter entirely. Especially since Fed intervention in the equities market is both known and admitted.

OTOH, today's intervention may merely account for the phase shift apparent in the two overlays. Which is to say, that in the final analysis, they are able to shift and delay but they still cannot control markets.

And since the past is prologue, they are in need of a major crisis to solidify absolute control and justify the final noose around our collective necks. ...... 401k losses will be restored and so, most will go without so much as a small peep.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 18:56
Squirrel (Gazebo - a 3rd reason for Gold stocks to recover) ID#280214:
Massive demand from Joe & Jane 6pk buying an ounce or two each.
What drives the price for copper, zinc, lead, iron, etc.?
So lets crank up the demand.

I hate multi-level marketing programs - but lets use their example.
Each one of us hit up our friends, relatives and neighbors
to buy a few small coins - even a few 1/10 ounce coins will help.
I'd feel better selling 'em Gold or Silver than some MLM scam.

But be prepared for The Look -
given us nuts who think Gold can help save our freedoms.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 18:56
Isure (@ Blooper) ID#368244:

Good Lesson! One my dad taught me 45 years ago, and by the way he also said just when you think you got it all figured out, is when your gonna find out how dumb you are. Peace!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 18:49
Squirrel (So to do my small part to get more Gold out there - re my 14:28) ID#280214:
I shall try to sell 1/10 and 1/4 oz ounce Maple Leafs in this little burg
to the average walk-in trade - those who aren't dyed-in-the-wool Goldbugs but are more like Joe & Jane 6pk.
I can't afford much inventory - but with each sale, I can afford more.
I suppose I ought to try some of the small golden eagles too.
Too bad they are not 9999 fine Gold. But they are tourist items for folks looking for American memorabilia.
I don't want to price them too low. If the 10-grain Gold coin comes in at US$10 then it will look too expensive compared to $35 for a 1/10 ounce.
Since I want to help sell the 10-grain coin I should prepare the market with small golden eagles & MLs. Then the 10-grain ought to sell well.
I may be able to get away with $43.95 for the 1/10 ounce and $99.95 for the 1/4 ounce. Again - these prices are tourist prices. All of us here know where to buy them for a lot less than this - but I am not selling to the Kitco choir - I'm selling to Joe & Jane 6pk.
Just trying to do my part - instead of just talking about it.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 18:48

A little over 300 billion U.S. dollars buys every
ounce of gold in every Central Bank in the world.
When Japan crashes, none of this will be for
sale. Gold miners have sold forward about two
years production and speculators hold large short
positions - some experts even say it is as high as
8,000 metric tonnes. How high does the price go when
the $12 trillion in ( Japanese ) household savings
starts chasing an asset there is so little of?

IRONICALLY, the Nippons own about $300 Billion in
Uncle Sam's T-Bonds...

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 18:45
Gazebo (OK all you doom and gloomers........) ID#432298:
Let me put my 2 cents worth in. Gold and gold mining stocks are NOT going to recover UNLESS there is a war abroad or a recession here in the United States. Which do you think will happen first? Keep in mind such factors as our rate of inflation and the overall health of our economy. Will foreign markets be the cause of what will be to come?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 18:34
blooper (All 3 charts overlay almost perfectly) ID#207145:
Eerie isn't it.... I had rather think of this as 73--74. A 50 % haircut. Crewcut, followed by inflationary spiral. Buy low sell high still applies for us Jews and Gentiles alike.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 18:30
mozel (@Earl) ID#153102:
And isn't it an inescapable conclusion that the fed was manipulating then as now ?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 18:29
blooper (ISURE) ID#207145:
I have learned a good lesson. Wait for a double bottom to buy. And dont listen to gloom and doomers. Buy cheap and sell higher.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 18:26
Earl () ID#227238:
OLD GOLD ( Urban survival ) : Thanks for the site link. An amazing corellation between 29 and today. Only a small amount of phase shift between the two charts, in the present period. I have never really believed that the next market break would follow past patterns ( I thought it would be different this time :- ) ) but the evidence in those charts is very compelling.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 18:24
mozel (@Domestic Greenback) ID#153102:
OK, the new, little little thingy on the fresh funny money Studio withdrew and the G.S. set up to make billions in shorts in overseas trading accounts ( just too obvious and subject to unwanted discovery and publicity here; need a friendly overseas spot and government for a scam this big ) make me think it is time to re-read what Congress authorized in the way of a dual greenback currency arrangement. If somebody could dig up that text, it would be appreciated.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 18:18
Isure (@ All) ID#368244:

Maybe a crash, maybe not. Maybe gold up, maybe not. Seems somebody will be right. The trouble is, you boys and girls don't have a true sense of direction.

Well, here's mine. An event of such magnitude and suddeness will shake the US before mid 1999, that will render all charts and chartists useless. This might come in the form of the vaporization of New York or some other American city. Do you think who ever blew up two U.S. embassies are playing games? The time may soon come when mkt. values and the price of gold will not be found in the Sunday paper. Look to the East for a sign my son.

If in the year 2004 if I can look in the eyes of my family and see a warm happy smile, I will laugh and tell of the time when I was so stupid that I actually thought the world was in real trouble. I will tell them that no man can see the future, and I am living proof of that. IF!

I have already accepted my losses in gold stocks, they amount to about 10% of my net worth. If they recover, that would be nice. If they don't, I can live with that. But remember, just as the market is a market as none before, man's potential for total destruction and his willingness to do so, is as at no time before also.

When the highest official in the land doesn't know the definition of 'sexual relations', that tells me we just might be in trouble. Peace.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 18:18
blooper (StudioR) ID#207145:
We like bread and butta, we like toast and jam.Jeff Lynd, Roy Orbison.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:56
STUDIO.R (@bloOper....) ID#288369:
We goldbugs, the last remnant of a caring society, should take up a collection to buy AG, RR and LS some viagra. I do feel for these poor neglected spouses....but not enuff to take care of their mortal needs ( in a manly sense ) ....I'll send 'em some money, but I ain't their loverman.......not STUDio.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:52
blooper (Market dollars hasn't stopped them from raising rates in past.) ID#207145:
Suffice it to say, this will be stopped. Credit will be tightened. Or our US$ won't be worth anything. Then later, you lower rates.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:49
mozel (@crazytimes) ID#153102:
Yeah. When it tanks, we will read articles about the losses of the poor folks at G.S. to elicit our sympathy. The billions from shorts will be hidden overseas.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:48
blooper (Studio R) ID#207145:
Sometimes I do then again I think I wont. Glad AG is on the job, not Summers or some idiot like that. Hope Rubin's old lady don't divorce him.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:45
STUDIO.R (@bloOper......) ID#288369:
Greenspan will do whatever is necessary to throttle the outflow of dollars demanded by foreign creditors....and at the same time, he will need more dollars for the cashing of equities. Wow, this will be messy.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:42
blooper (StuduoR) ID#207145:
Japan will be OK. We need to tighten credit. You know how this is done? That is how you kill the bull. Loostening could prolong this bubble, maybe make it bigger.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:38
blooper (Studio) ID#207145:
You tighten credit to save your currency. We will have to do that?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:37
STUDIO.R (@bloOper....) ID#288369:
who was it this morning that cited the collapsed jap market and 1.5% prime? I guess it's possible to have a deep recession, inflation and relatively low rates....I'm ill-equipped to advance or refute this concept.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:31
chas (crazytimes your 17:20) ID#147201:
Isn't this the way as always. Set up the public and chop them up. Typical Wall St. move

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:26
blooper (Studio R) ID#207145:
Don't we normally have inflation to kill the cycle? How in the world do you kill a bad ass bull like this with low intrest rates?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:20
Leland (I Love This Kind of Humor) ID#31876:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:20
crazytimes (Holy Trick or Treat Batman!!) ID#342376:
I reread the article about Goldmans. The date will probably be in October!! Oldman said the partners at Goldmans stand to make BILLIONS by shorting it as opposed to millions by the IPO. It's all making sense now. Unbelievable! Abbey's got to keep up appearances ( remain bullish ) until then though. It's very clever buy sickening

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:16
STUDIO.R (@GOllum......) ID#288369:
your work, analysis, of the burden of impending cash demand ( liquified equities ) placed on U.S. banks is very interesting to me...I have not identified a fallacy that would serve to diminish the consequence of this phenomenon which you suggest. You're on to this point, I believe this is inflationary also. Keep thinking about this.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:15
TYoung (folks it ain't that tough...either the stock market bolts higher or...) ID#317193:
the current currency crisis flames out of control.

Buy gold or internet stocks depending on what happens. BTW...the same the internet that gave rise to the internet stock bull may well cause a currency crisis so devistating that the world economies will not recover for years. Information transfer today is AWESOME. Fear will travel quickly.

Derivatives...we watch this ne...never mind. Be careful out there...danger lurks. Cash is no good if currencies flame. Gold is no good if currencies are stable. Off to catch knives!


Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:15
blooper (Chas) ID#207145:
OK, I can be a bit of an ass at times. I am sorry. No strings.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:12
blooper (Thanks, Crazytimes) ID#207145:
And I worry about grocery money. damn.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:12
aurator (Foottie) ID#257148:
didn't see the game live ( was at 03:00 local ) , but you ruined my taped re-run!
still, must see how the the new All Blacks shaped up

Now, back to guns....

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:10
blooper (Bear markets) ID#207145:
Usually interrupted bu 2 or 3 rallys. Unless AG WJC and RR get in on it. They will save the election nor democrats? Would Clinton ask them. Save Clinton's sorry butt? Yes, Yes, Yes.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:10
crazytimes (@ blooper and Goldman's going public..) ID#342376:
Here's a link to an article. No date yet as far as I can tell but filing with the SEC in late August. Partners will all make millions from the IPO

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:07
chas (Blooper ) ID#147201:
Apology accepted and understood. Things should work well like this, Charlie

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:06
mozel (@crazytimes) ID#153102:
oldman has it nailed. The inside short is the fastest way to move greenbacks from pocket to pocket known to modern man. No indictments at G.S. either. Not with their Ruby jewel as Governor of the Fund.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:06
sam (oh no) ID#290287:

Sorry I missed the gun talk. For those that don't have any shooting experience, all this talk about calibers, effective range, vests, muzzle energy etc isn't very helpful. If you are interested in getting a gun for self defense the first thing to do is take a firearms safety course at your nearest firing range. Hopefully they have NRA trained instructors, if not try it anyway. You will learn a few very important things, and you might find out you love to shoot. They should talk about safety and give you some range rules. They should start you out with a .22 rimfire revolver or rifle, maybe a .38 special revolver. It should be fun. In the unlikely event the intructors seem creepy or start you out with guns that are too powerful, go somewhere else. Give it a shot.

My puter's hard drive is dying. May I not be back for a for a while.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:04
blooper (Crazytimes) ID#207145:
When is goldman going public? That is an interesting date. I,m sure it was't picked by accident.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:01
blooper (Gollum) ID#207145:
We know we got one comming. We're just arguing over the date!!!!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 17:00
Gollum (boiled down) ID#43349:
The business cycle is approximately four years. Upom occasion a cycle will skip having a recession and the cycle will go eight years.

The last low point was in March 1991. If the next low point is on track it will come in the first part 0f '99.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:58
blooper (Chas) ID#207145:
Sorry I upset you. I believe you stuck your nose into my business . Since I am not perfect myself, I will promise not stick my nose in yous, if you will do the same. I'm sure you are a good and decent man, and that my guesses should not upset you. Check mr realistic for the logical extension.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:57
crazytimes (More on Abbey...) ID#342376:
Don't forget Goldman's is going public. How are the partners of Goldman's gonna make hundreds of millions from the IPO if a Bear Market has been declared by their Chief Analyst? ( unless they short the stock, which is a comment made by Oldman on avidtrader )

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:51
chas (Blooper your posts) ID#147201:
If you would carry a little more consideration in your expressions and leave well enough alone, you might get a little further. There's not a damn thing you can say that would bother me, but there are some considerate posters here that could be offended by your BS. Thank you for your consideration, Charlie

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:50
blooper (I agree Abby Cohen and Elaine Garzarreli are bullshit artists.) ID#207145:
Just don't make any money guys. And sell your gold in late January, heah!!!!That old money is causin the END OF THE WORLD.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:45
Gollum (Gosh, Gertrude, don't confuse me with facts!) ID#43349:
US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

------------------------------ Contraction Expansion Cycle
----------- --------- ----------------
Trough Peak ( Trough ( Trough Trough Peak
From to Peak ) from from
------------------------------ Previous Previous Previous
Peak ) Trough Peak

December 1854 June 1857 -- 30 -- --
December 1858 October 1860 18 22 48 40
June 1861 April 1865 8 46 30 54
December 1867 June 1869 32 18 78 50
December 1870 October 1873 18 34 36 52

March 1879 March 1882 65 36 99 101
May 1885 March 1887 38 22 74 60
April 1888 July 1890 13 27 35 40
May 1891 January 1893 10 20 37 30
June 1894 December 1895 17 18 37 35

June 1897 June 1899 18 24 36 42
December 1900 September 1902 18 21 42 39
August 1904 May 1907 23 33 44 56
June 1908 January 1910 13 19 46 32
January 1912 January 1913 24 12 43 36

December 1914 August 1918 23 44 35 67
March 1919 January 1920 7 10 51 17
July 1921 May 1923 18 22 28 40
July 1924 October 1926 14 27 36 41
November 1927 August 1929 13 21 40 34

March 1933 May 1937 43 50 64 93
June 1938 February 1945 13 80 63 93
October 1945 November 1948 8 37 88 45
October 1949 July 1953 11 45 48 56
May 1954 August 1957 10 39 55 49

April 1958 April 1960 8 24 47 32
February 1961 December 1969 10 106 34 116
November 1970 November 1973 11 36 117 47
March 1975 January 1980 16 58 52 74
July 1980 July 1981 6 12 64 18

November 1982 July 1990 16 92 28 108
March 1991 8 -- 100 --

Average, all cycles:
1854-1991 ( 31 cycles ) 18 35 53 53*
1854-1919 ( 16 cycles ) 22 27 48 49**
1919-1945 ( 6 cycles ) 18 35 53 53
1945-1991 ( 9 cycles ) 11 50 61 61

Average, peacetime cycles:
1854-1991 ( 26 cycles ) 19 29 48 48***
1854-1919 ( 14 cycles ) 22 24 46 47****
1919-1945 ( 5 cycles ) 20 26 46 45
1945-1991 ( 7 cycles ) 11 43 53 53

* 30 cycles.
** 15 cycles.
*** 25 cycles.
**** 13 cycles.

Figures printed in bold italic are the wartime expansions ( Civil War, World Wars I and II, Korean War, and Vietnam War ) ; the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
From the U.S. Department of Commerce, Survey of Current Business, October 1994, Table C-51.

The determination that the last recession ended in March 1991 is the most recent decision of the Business Cycle Dating Committee.
The National Bureau of Economic Research ( NBER ) does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GNP. Rather, a recession is a recurring period of decline in total output, income, employment, and trade, usually lasting from six months to a year, and marked by widespread contractions in many sectors of the economy.

A growth recession is a recurring period of slow growth in total output, income, employment, and trade, usually lasting a year or more. A growth recession may encompass a recession, in which case the slowdown usually begins before the recession starts, but ends at about the same time. Slowdowns also may occur without recession, in which case the economy continues to grow, but at a pace significantly below its long-run growth

A depression is a recession that is major in both scale and duration. Further discussion of these concepts can be found in the NBER book, Business Cycles, Inflation and Forecasting, 2nd edition, 1983, Ballinger Publishing Co., Cambridge, MA.

An up-to date copy of this document can always be accessed on the Internet at

Public Information Office
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge MA 02138

For information on international business cycles, contact the Center for International Business Cycle Research, 122 East 42nd Street, Suite 1512, New York, NY 10168 ( 212 ) 983-2222

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:45
Mr. Mick (That's true, Moze, so who is more likely to tell you the truth?) ID#345321:
I vote for Tolly.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:44
blooper (Gianni) ID#207145:
I agree. But dooming and glooming is crazy. The world's not coming to an end. If this market gets under 6000, and rates are low, we could be off and running again to get overbought. Can you not see this?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:42
mozel (Mr Mick: Abbey is the one Mort Zuckerman , puts on the conver and pumps ) ID#153102:
up on the inside. She has sponsors whose purpose she serves. T1 doesn't.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:41
Mr. Mick (Honestly, all the market prognosticators and analysts in the world remind me) ID#345321:
of so many blind men describing the elephant.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:40
blooper (I sure don't want realistic on my butt.I predict he needs help.) ID#207145:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:39
Gianni Dioro__A (Blooper) ID#384350:
No bullshit man, I agree with you. I'm just saying that markets tend to peak before recessions kick in.

You were talking about 10 yr. cycles, and 1987 was a major top for the broader market. Sure the Dow quickly recovered and roared ahead, but not the broad-based Value Line index. Real estate values suffered greatly after the 87 crash and property values in parts of England or France still haven't recovered from the sell off in the late 80's.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:36
Realistic (@Puetz) ID#410194:
Hello Puetz,

I notice in your earlier message today that you predict a stock market crash again this coming September. Haven't you done so a few times last year?

In the following few examples ( look at the dates very carefully ) , 4 bearish indicators of yours and a full moon ( ! ) didn't make it happen... instead, the equity markets started a powerful rally to new highs!

Can you tell us how you did with your S&P put options?


Date: Sat Nov 08 1997 23:58
Puetz ( ) ID#222167:
Oldman: I believe you're wrong about the market not crashing short-term. Time will tell which of us is correct. In any case, I would enjoy having you as a subscriber to the Steve Puetz Letter.

By the way, I respect your non-confrontational, matter-of-fact way of disagreeing with me. The best of luck to you.

Date: Wed Nov 05 1997 22:25
Puetz (>> ) ID#170235:
Oldman: I'm glad to see you joined the stock market bears. The reversal in stocks today shows that tremendous resistance sits above DJIA 7700. For three days the DJIA has been trying to push above pre-Panic-Monday levels. The rally on declining volume is one of the bearish indicators. The high level of call activity on the CBOE is another. The 50% retracement is a third bearish signal. The reversal today is a forth.

LGB: Take notice. Time is running out. It's not too late to change your ways. Repent, now, you bullish-sinner. I'm still trying to save you!!

Date: Thu Nov 13 1997 17:24
Puetz ( ) ID#170235:
Slick and Nick: At this point, I don't believe there has been an direct intervention in the markets. Rather, short-sellers and put-option buyers have been liquidating their winning positions -- too early I might add. This is typical in the early stages of a crash. There bears tend to get out too soon.

What we saw today was just another short-covering rally. Don't forget, we have another full moon tomorrow. During crashes, the biggest declines occur after full moons. Look out below during the next 2 weeks!!!!

Date: Thu Nov 13 1997 19:42
Puetz ( ) ID#222167:
WSF: After the market close, BRIDGE News attributed today's stock market rally to short-covering. While market manipulation is possible, I don't think any significant amount has occurred. I have NEVER seen a case of a bear market or crash that went down day-after-day -- in a straight-line free-fall. Short-covering rallies typically interrupt declines for a day or two. I believe that's all we had today -- short-covering. The stock market should start falling again, as the primary bear market reasserts itself. The horendous advance-decline numbers today should be all the evidence bears need to feel confident that stocks are in a severe contraction. I'm holding all of my S&P put options

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:35
blooper (Actually misery loves company) ID#207145:
So I guess we can weep and carry on till late October when the Dow is below 6000...But you guys better hide till late January. You might make some money. And I know you wouldn't want to do that. By the way. I will then take my profit, and buy Gold. It will finally be time.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:35
Mr. Mick (Why should Abbey Cohen carry any more weight than Tolerant1?) ID#345321:
Who the hell is she?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:30
blooper (Markets discount the future, but not for 3 years) ID#207145:
This bulls goose will be cooked bu Y2K time, mid 99.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:28
crazytimes (@ mozel and Abbey Cohen of Goldman Sachs) ID#342376:
I think your dead on with your comment about Abbey. She's still bullish because she knows she carries alot of weight. She'll be bullish until all the biggest clients are out of the market, then she'll change her tune.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:28
blooper (Gianni, the market did not peak in 1987, now, did it?) ID#207145:
Markets peak and head down shortly before the economy ( 6 months ) .

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:26
Envy (Rally) ID#219363:
I think if there is a strong enough downside on the market, the rallies won't be nearly as strong. We can use Gold as the perfect example: it's had so much downside nobody can even understand it, it's a decade lows, everything has been against it, it appears to have nothing but upside, but there isn't a buyer to be found. I think the stock market is the same way, if there were enough losers, most people would think the dream was over, and would walk away from it.

Don't get me wrong, I think there will be a good rally after a major tank, but I'm not so sure it would last very long. Asia's graph has that written all over it. Fall, rally, tank, rally, super-tank, rally, devastation, rally.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:25
chas (Mike Sheller and Gianni Dioro) ID#147201:
The gold prices in the 1860's have a good reference in this book by Maury Klein. It refers to Jay Gould's attempt to corner the gold market. the Life and Legend of Jay Gould- Johns Hopkins Univ. Press- 1986.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:24
blooper (Gianni, Recessions hace started like this: 1960,70,80,90) ID#207145:
Fill in the blank Gianni. Bullshit is one thing. History is another.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:22
mozel (All of the technical parallels between these days and the pre-Crash days of the 20's) ID#153102:
tell me the federal was market manipulating then as now.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:21
blooper (With the Dow at 5700 in late October, plus a rate cut.......) ID#207145:
And you tell me there wont be a hellaceous rally heading into Christmas?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:20
Gianni Dioro__A (Blooper, Interest rates) ID#384350:
I think that rates will initially fall because the debt spiral will take hold. It will probably start a counter rally. However, once the markets starts to tank, and margin and other loans are forcing people to sell, a drop in rates will not have the desired effects.

Thenafter rates may very well rise, as liquidity dries up.

Govt Revenue ( taxes ) versus spending plus the massive trade deficit will eventually hurt the US Dollar.

Also your recessions start at the beginning of the decades, however markets tend to peak in the 2 or 3 years before: 1929, 1968, 1987.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:19
blooper (SWPI) ID#207145:
Yes. It will be a great factor in the recession of 2000.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:18
SWP1 (Blooper) ID#233199:
i.e. Redirected resources...

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:17
blooper (Gianni) ID#207145:
I see the market at 5700 in mid to late October. I hope you understand that a rate cut would start a stampede into stocks.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:17
SWP1 (Blooper) ID#233199:
When do you see Y@K recession kicking in?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:16
OLD GOLD (Blooper) ID#242325:
A powerful rally yes! But probably from Dow 7500 or so.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:12
blooper (Gianni Deoro) ID#207145:
Why does anyone increase cash. To buy. Otherwise he would have bought bonds. I agree one should stay out until mid to late October. I agree this is a dangerous market. I just say if AG drops rates in December like he will, I think. With an oversold market at Christmas, I see a powerful rally. A POWERFUL RALLY. Everyone has a right to their opinion. I hope you agree.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:12
kitkat (Numbers vs. Castles in the Sky) ID#208393:
Canadian Mining & Exploration
Stock Performance Apr. 6 - Aug. 14 ( inc )

Stock Apr. 6 Aug. 14 Percentage
PRU 11.70 11.00 -6
MNG 5.90 4.95 -16
PDG 20.80 15.65 -25
ABX 32.75 23.70 -28
ORV 1.85 1.01 -45
GEO 2.50 1.22 -51
SUF 13.60 6.45 -53
RNG 5.45 2.25 -59
GRE 10.30 2.15 -79

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:09
Envy (Baby bear) ID#219363:
I'm a little baby bear cub too, but after I see mama and papa bear take down a few bulls, I'll start feeling the confidence to run into the herd myself. Right now, I'm just learning by watching and don't have the experience, I don't want to get gored by the horns. But I am watching closely and picking up pointers where I can, learning about the weapons, learning to pick up the scent of bad news and earnings reports. If I were to charge in right now, I'd either get killed or chase a bull that gets away easilly, wasting my strength. But if the bears gather, I want to be prepared for the press.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:07
blooper (Old Gold) ID#207145:
When you and I have it all figured out, I promise you the market will confound us both.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:06
Gianni Dioro__A (Big Boys Gettin' Out) ID#384350:
Blooper, what do you think has been going on since last October's wake up call? The Big Boys have been getting out.

Buffett's company has increased cash and cash equivalents from roughly 2% to 13% during the past 18 months.

I expect a pennant formation to form like you see in Kondratieff tops. They say the market won't crash till October, but then again this year's January effect started in November.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:05
mozel (@Goldman Sachs Abbey Cohen) ID#153102:
has got to be a propaganda floozie for big boys, so some of them, at least, aren't out yet. Rate drop rally of some sort ahead.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:03
blooper (Our recession will be in 2000) ID#207145:
That means the bull has life. Let us see, now that you have killed him in your dreams, how long it takes him to die. By October he will look done for. By December he will be goaring you.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 16:00
blooper (Old Gold) ID#207145:
This bull won't die for you or me. It not be EASY to kill.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:57
OLD GOLD () ID#242325:
NOBODY can keep the bull going once the markets decide it is finis. Read the Armstrong piece about how interventions to artificially inflate stocks or currencies alweays boomerang. Perhaps a two day suckers rally.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:52
blooper (Actually we agree. I just stretch this biggest of bull markets out a little.) ID#207145:
This bull is no ordinary bull. It is the biggest of all times. It will not roll over like you say it will. It will be hard to kill, and very dangerous.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:49
Gianni Dioro__A (Chas, Swiss Francs) ID#384350:
Charlie, there is a difference between Swiss Gold Francs and Swiss Franc notes ( common currency ) . I believe Swiss Gold Francs are a BIS instrument.

I do not have any specifics on the situation in Switzerland, that is why I wanted to bounce the theory around here ( I also emailed it to USAGold for Another to respond ) . I used to have a book that talked of the Gold-link, saying that it had a low market value conversion rate, meaning that the Swiss Central Bank had to have more Gold than if it were by linked by market value. However, this must apply to notes and not to checkbook ( digital ) money, because if it did the Swiss Franc would be worth 10 times its current value IMO, as the Swissy has been devalued to a large degree along with other world currencies since the 70's.

A large demand for bank notes may force the hand of the Swiss Bank. These are the reasons for my suspicions of the attempt to de-link gold from the Swissy, why the referendum will not be an honest vote, and why it pass.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:48
blooper (10 year cycles defy the best of GURUS.) ID#207145:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:47
blooper (Things happen because noone thinks they can.) ID#207145:
AG and WJC and Rubin will keep this bull alive monitarily, because if it dies, so to will Clinton. How ruthless is he.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:42
blooper (Oldman) ID#207145:
Recession started in 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990. I say 2000 is the year. I'm not smart, but I can count.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:42
Envy (Bear) ID#219363:
It's true that only a few bears have come out of hibernation, and they are still slaughtering the animals in another herd, but as more and more of the weak get destroyed in the asian herd, the american herd's ears start to pop up, and a chilly cold touches them. It's been ignored so far, because the bear has only been heard of, but not seen, but more and more bears are waking from their sleep, and they are very hungry after such a long time. A few of the herd have already been taken down, the really weak ones on the edge near the woods, and the herd knows this, but is still confident. But that won't always be the case, eventually the herd will scare, scatter, and run, and the bears will charge in with force and take down the weak, the over-optimistic, the liars, cheats, the boastful. It's not at all obvious if the bears are out, but that gives them the element of surprise if they decide to feast on an unsuspecting herd. They are a part of nature, meant to weed out the weak, meek, the mutated, the spell-bound. The herd has seen a few loses, but suspects that the bear has went back to his cave, but the bear will come. The herd is big, slow, dumb, and nutritious.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:40
OLD GOLD (Martin Armstrong) ID#242325:
Martin Armstrong who has been deadly accurate on majpor trends in global financial markets now says a global equities bear market has begun. Looks for Dow to break 7000 before troughing. A second leg down in September. European bourses to plunge even more. He is bearish on everything except US bonds.

The Crash of ’98


By Martin A. Armstrong

August 14, 1998

Copyright Princeton Economic Institute

While of our clients have been amazed that our computer model called for the
peak in the stocks markets as July 20th, 1998 more than 4 years ago, some
visitors to this site have sent their emails of disapproval. We have even
received a nasty email suggesting that our forecast was perhaps
self-fulfilling due to the fact that so many institutions rely on PEI models.
Quite frankly, what we find more shocking is how the vast majority of
analysts and commentators can still be bullish even with technical models
aside. The more compelling fundamentals behind the decline in the world
share markets is none other than the fact that world news is overwhelmingly
disturbing. How anyone cannot see the seriousness of events building in
Russia, China and Asia as a whole and their potential impact upon global
economy is simply blind faith. We cannot expect the world to continue
upward and onward just because we wish it to do so. There has NEVER been
a bull market that was not followed by a correction. We do NOT see the end
of the world - merely a correction that might be 2 years in duration if
government gets its act together. The faster the decline in the early stages,
the higher the probability that we will also see a final low sooner rather than

With the closings achieved as of today ( Friday, August 14, 1998 ) , a sharp
continued decline appears to be inevitable. If this weekend brings more
chaos in Russia, next week may bring a significant continued decline
throughout Europe; Asia and US share markets. From our perspective, there
is no debate whether or not our computer has once again succeeded in
predicting what many consider impossible. Nonetheless, the precise turning
points of the Economic Confidence Model have been etched in stone since it
was first discovered back in 1971. The dates do not change for July 20th or
for the peak of the next business cycle come on February 24th, 2007. The
more compelling question among those who have become students of this
mode remains the next 4.3 years into the bottom of this current business
cycle due on 2002.85 ( November 6th, 2002 ) following the US congressional
elections at that time.

In our upcoming World Capital Market Report due next week, we will
discuss these issues with the target dates that lie ahead. For now, new highs
do not appear to be likely given the fact that the US market has now elected
3 Weekly Bearish Reversals for the first time in nearly 8 years. This
indicator provided by our models has clearly differentiated the current
decline from that of even just last October when no sell signals were
achieved beyond the daily timing models. Thus, we must remain objective
looking for a test of the Dow in the mid-6,000 range before a reversal of
fortune can be expected.

While there will be hate-mails from some, we all must realize that many
analysts who are employed by brokerage houses do not enjoy the freedom of
speech that others in the analytical community cherish. Those who do have
the courage to change their views should not be ridiculed when they try to
speak the truth even when the truth is not what everyone would like to hear.
We cannot forget the analyst who was fired because he warned about
Trump’s bonds before his troubles. While he was sacked by the brokerage
house for speaking the truth, in the end he was proven to be correct.

The majority never wants to hear about a bear market. Everyone wants to be
told how much money they can make effortlessly forever. Nonetheless, it is
always the bear market that eventually distinguishes independent analysis
from that, which is viewed to be only a token cost of doing business.

For now, we remain bullish on the US bond market at least going into 1999.
The US economy will also suffer the least decline when the final low print
has been established. The greatest danger remains that of Europe where
optimism over the coming Euro has blinded many to the problems faced
today by the world economy as a whole. We must be most concerned about
Europe for it is this region that is showing the highest tendency to unfold
into a bear market of significant proportions.

As of the close of Friday, August 14, 1998, the percentage declines for
those markets that peaked precisely on July 20th, 1998 stand as follows:

US Dow Jones Industrials…. 11.21%

S&P 500 Cash……………… 11.47%

S&P 500 Futures…………… 11.78%

British FT100 Futures……… 14.00%

German DAX Cash………… 15.94%

German DAX Futures……… 16.09%

French CAC40 Futures…….. 14.12%

Swiss Futures………………. 13.15%

So far our forecast for a decline in Europe that would outpace that of the US
market has begun. The above table illustrates that as of August 14th, the US
market has declined the LEAST. Given the fact that the European markets
have gained the most on the upside due to the view of the coming Euro, we
will also see the greatest tendency for a bubble top to form within German
and French markets in particular. A collapse in Russia will have a far greater
impact upon Europe than the United States. It is European banks that hold
90% of the exposure to Europe compared to US banks.

For now, we remain bearish as we look ahead to the weeks of August 17th
and September 7th/14th as the next key targets for turning points ahead. The
most concerning factor that we must consider is that there has been no
significant rally whatsoever since the July 20th peak. This warns that despite
the bullish outlooks that prevail, real selling is taking place and far less
bottom picking has emerged. The phrase buying opportunity appear to be
falling on closed ears. While at some point in time there will be a 7-10%
recovery from an initial low, the risk of a second leg down still remains
quite high by mid September.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:36
blooper (Another high will be made by the DOW) ID#207145:
THEN you will see the damdest bear you have ever seen, and recession in 2000. It is way too early for the end to play out now. 10 year cycles say 2000 is the bummer. Go back and check. 90, 80, 70, 60,.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:33
blooper (Oldman) ID#207145:
After the crash in October that takes away years of profits, ans scares the hell out of every man. This market will confound the best. Rates will be dropped to save investors. The market will then rocket skyward.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:28
blooper (Beware of foolish negativity) ID#207145:
October this market will crash. After that look out to the upside.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:26
blooper (Oldman) ID#207145:
I too am old, tho not as wise. You will be confounded as I will be aat what this market does. It is the biggest baddest of them all. It will not die easy.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:23
kitkat (@Bart) ID#208393:
Thanks for the reply. To clarify the vagueness, how would you characterize your coin sales this year as compared to last year? For instance I would quantify my gold investments as -50%. ( Ouch )

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:23
Leland (WASHINGTON POST Tells How Asia's Impact Varies Between Cities and States) ID#31876:
Click on Twin Cities Reflect the Impact of Asia's Troubles.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:21
OLD GOLD (Blooper) ID#242325:
Rates will be coming down, but do not count on a new high or even Dow 9000 again. Japan bond yields around 1.3% but their market still is dead meat. Declining rates will cushion the fall to a certain extent; they will not reverse it. Dow 8700 will be about as good as it gets and that won't last long.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:20
blooper (October crash) ID#207145:
However I won't be invested in October or November, but before you think you're smart: the FED will lower rates. The market will be renewed, and will climb to new highs.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:17
blooper (When rates fall, new highs will be made.) ID#207145:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:15
OLD GOLD (Urban survival) ID#242325:
The urban survivial site which has been deadly accurate on the stock market of late projectsd a short-term low of 8300 this week followed by a rally back to 8700. Then all hell breaks loose on the downside during September.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:15
blooper (I really dont care to trade a bear. Intrest rates to fall?) ID#207145:
That will spark a new top. New highs? Yes.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:14
crazytimes (Hundreth Monkey syndrome...) ID#342376:
Is the idea that thoughts can be trasmitted across species without direct communication. Something happens, when a certain critical mass of individuals in a species has some knowledge that then spreads like wildfire to the rest of the species instantaneously. Something like that will happen in the markets and everyone will begin selling. What that critical mass is and when it will happen are the big questions.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:14
Gianni Dioro__A (grant, customs) ID#384350:
Most countries have laws that make you declare whether you are carrying more than a certain amount of cash. Usually bullion falls into this category. The amount is usually around $10k US, however exchange rates can come into play, as some countries currencies have lost quite considerable value recently.

Not reporting may subject you to confiscation. I suppose you could play innocent, especially since it ain't paper money, and is more akin to a collection. I would say it's best to know the limits and to stay under them. You definitely don't put the coins in your checked in luggage. Usually a relatively small number of coins can be placed into a coin purse mixed with other common coins and then passed through the X-ray machine, without arousing any attention at all.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:13
blooper (Old man) ID#207145:
When has there been a bear without a reflex bounce ( secondary rally ) ?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:10
mozel (@Gianni @Grizz) ID#153102:
Swiss gold reserve for SF Digital & Paper. Interesting question as to what that ratio is. I think one purpose of Euro is to prevent stampede into SF. Deduction: ratio is in the neighborhood of 15%.

Grizz: Sounds like Grant in Tennessee, Sheridan in Virginia, & Sherman in Georgia to me.
The Big Lie is that there was a war between American States. There was conquest by the federal Seat of Government located in the 10 miles square of land. Then there was restructuring of the state governments into puppet Socialist International Martial Republics. It's a big country. Took a while for D.C. to consolidate its conquest and revive the feudal law; that's all.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:05
crazytimes (Posts have been unbelievable here at Kitco recently!) ID#342376:
I have learned so much from reading Kitco this last year. Gianni Dioro, what a thought provoking post! A person's head really spins when you think about all the factors. Your post reminded me of ANOTHER speaking about a two-tiered currency system, one backed by gold, the other not, but having a relationship to the one backed by gold. I'm amazed at people that can put all this together. The movements and dynamics of money seem to be as complex as thinking about quantum physics

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:01
chas (Blooper) ID#147201:
When I was a young man, I followed this trail. Now, I am 68+ and am still following the trail. Thanx for the GURU, but I am just following experience and details from some older folks with experience. Hope you have the necessary luck on this future Dow experience, Charlie

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 15:00
EJ (crazytimes) ID#45173:
Your point is excellent. My feeling is that the Internet and TV transmit information and create opinion quickly. Four months ago most anyone you stopped on the street was likely to believe that the DOW was going to 10,000. Now it's nearly impossible to find someone with that view. Four months ago Barron's was running bull sentiment articles with few if any that spoke to the deflationary trends in the market. You had to go to obscure Internet sites to see this contrarian news. Read Barron's now and you are treated to a 70/30 split in bearish to bullish sentiment reporting.

Now gold is an anachronism. If financial chaos happens, many of the rarified views of gold bugs will be adopted by the mainstream financial media.


Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 14:59
Gianni Dioro__A (Mike Sheller, 134 yr. support) ID#384350:
I feel that it is more appropriate to measure Gold in terms of its purchasing power, such as how many loaves of bread it can buy, how much gold for an acre of farmland, or even the Dow/Gold ratio.

Obviously, during the American Civil War, the Greenback was considered very risky. I suppose the price of Gold in London didn't change much at the time. This data is nonetheless quite interesting.

Please keep us informed with your project.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 14:58
OLD GOLD (Selby) ID#242325:
A few months ago you said several times that a rally to Dow 10,000 was about as sure a bet as can be imagined in the financial markets. Welcome to the ranks of those of us who have made bad calls. And those ranks now include the infallible oldman who was wildly bullish at Dow 9000.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 14:53
chas (Gianni Dioro your 14:46) ID#147201:
It looks plausible. I have tried every avenue I can find re current total issue of Swiss gold Francs. Also how much gold is behind this issue. No luck, Do you have any details on this. If so, I would appreciate this or links to finding out. Many thanx, Charlie

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 14:53
OLD GOLD (rebound?) ID#242325:
We may get a decent retracement rally soon or we may not. Do not bet the farm either way. Remember one reason why so many were caught flat footed in 1987 is that most considered the market heavily oversold and due for a rebound just BEFORE the crash.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 14:46
Gianni Dioro__A (All, Swiss Franc Notes) ID#384350:
It is my understanding that the Swiss Central Bank must hold a certain amount of gold for each Swiss Franc Note in Circulation. It is my understanding that this does not apply to checkbook ( digital ) money.

Now, with Y2K in the horizon the Swiss may be tempted to pull money out of the banks, i.e. convert digital checkbook money into Swiss notes. Also, think of wealthy Germans or French whose notes aren't going to be around in 2002. Wouldn't some of these individuals, who very well may have Swiss bank accounts or accounts in Swiss currency, be inclined to ask for Swiss notes in preparation of Y2K.

If a huge demand for Swiss notes occurs, then the Swiss Central Bank may be forced to increase its gold holdings. And obviously the Swiss have perverted their gold link by the exponential increase of broader money supplies. Wouldn't this be like a bank of the past who had lent out the same amount of gold several times over that when it is forced with redemptions it cannot cope?

If runs on Swiss banks occur, the Swiss Central Bank will obviously have a difficult time honouring the Constitution's Gold-link. The impact on the price of Gold isn't hard to conceive.

In addition, I believe gold is valued at a fraction of its market value for this Gold-link. So the masters have no choice but to abandon this link. You say the Swiss people won't vote for the referendum that would change the Constitution? I say if you believe there are still honest votes/elections in the World, you are naďve.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 14:39
crazytimes (@ EJ) ID#342376:
Your deflation with a twist post was superb, as are most of your posts IMHO. But I'm not so sure about TV and the internet informing. There is too much spin. Most people are in America On Line investment chat rooms, or Yahoo and the like, and I don't think they are talking about the things we speak of here ( deflation, fiat currencies, etc ) The only sites that talk of it are Gold Sites, like here and Gold Price Monitor on Silicon Investor. I thought your deflation with a twist post is a great example of why gold and PM's may be the only thing to hold when this thing unfolds.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 14:35
Dutchman (HUGO) ID#215235:
Your chart analysis for gold being bullish is interesting in light of other technical analysts who posit the reverse scenario. What is it about your charts that lead you to believe we are at the cusp of a gold rally? Please tell me more about call options on gold.


Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 14:34
Flash Gordon__A (dow jones and anything else you wish to think of) ID#326279:

I am undeniably one of the most fantastic contrarian indicators I have ever come across. In a desperate effort to shake this off, I'm making the following call:
the market is going to go down, the market is going to go up, the market is going to stay where it is ( in no particular order and in no particular time frame ) .

HA. Lets see you make me into a contrarian indicator now.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 14:33
chas (EJ your 13:57) ID#147201:
Your explanation is very appropriate. When paper currency ( cash ) is falling faster than you can get it to market, you have a problem. If you can think in terms of units of weight for gold and what this will allow you to buy in units of items, then a run to gold will take place. However, you have to anticipate an unexperienced situation to get in position. If all paper cash is worthless, what else is there to deal with but gold and silver. The silver is not out there in sufficient quantity to handle this, but gold can be produced to do so. The question is- how do you educate the public, Joe sixpak, to get ahead of the game

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 14:33
Goldilocks__A (Bill of No Rights) ID#377196:
I can't say I agree 100% with every word in this, but it makes some very good points about the current state of thinking in the US:

The following was written by State Representative Mitchell Kaye from Cobb
County, GA.

We, the sensible people of the United States, in an attempt to help everyone
get along, restore some semblance of justice, avoid any more riots, keep our
nation safe, promote positive behavior, and secure the blessings of debt-free
liberty to ourselves and our great-great-great grandchildren, hereby try one
more time to ordain and establish some common sense guidelines for the
terminally whiny, guilt-ridden, delusional, and other liberal bedwetters. We
hold these truths to be self-evident: that a whole lot of people were confused
by the Bill of Rights and are so dim that they require a Bill of No Rights.

ARTICLE I: You do not have the right to a new car, big screen TV or any other
form of wealth. More power to you if you can legally acquire them, but no one is
guaranteeing anything.

ARTICLE II: You do not have the right to never be offended. This country is
based on freedom, and that means freedom for everyone - not just you! You may
leave the room, turn the channel, express a different opinion, etc., but the
world is full of idiots, and probably always will be.

ARTICLE III: You do not have the right to be free from harm. If you stick a
screwdriver in your eye, learn to be more careful, do not expect the tool
manufacturer to make you and all your relatives independently wealthy.

ARTICLE IV: You do not have the right to free food and housing. Americans are
the most charitable people to be found, and will gladly help anyone in need, but
we are quickly growing weary of subsidizing generation after generation of
professional couch potatoes who achieve nothing more than the creation of
another generation of professional couch potatoes.

ARTICLE V: You do not have the right to free health care. That would be nice,
but from the looks of public housing, we're just not interested in public health

ARTICLE VI: You do not have the right to physically harm other people. If you
kidnap, rape, intentionally maim or kill someone, don't be surprised if the rest
of us want to see you fry in the electric chair.

ARTICLE VII: You do not have the right to the possessions of others. If you rob,
cheat or coerce away the goods or services of other citizens, don't be surprised
if the rest of us get together and lock you away in a place where
you still won't have the right to a big-screen color TV or a life of leisure.

ARTICLE VIII: You don't have the right to demand that our children risk their
lives in foreign wars to soothe your aching conscience. We hate oppressive
governments and won't lift a finger to stop you from going to fight if you'd
like. However, we do not enjoy parenting the entire world and do not want to
spend so much of our time battling each and every little tyrant with a military
uniform and a funny hat.

ARTICLE IX: You don't have the right to a job. All of us sure want all of you to
have one, and will gladly help you along in hard times, but we expect you to
take advantage of the opportunities of education and vocational training laid
before you to make yourself useful.

ARTICLE X: You do not have the right to happiness. Being an American means that
you have the right to pursue happiness - which by the way, is a lot easier if
you are unencumbered by an overabundance of idiotic laws created by those of you
who were confused by the Bill of Rights.


Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 14:30
BUFFORD (EJ *****when warren B shows up on CNBC) ID#253246:

When Buffet shows up on CNBC some morning and says he bought
a couple million shares of Newmont thats when gold will have hit
bottom. Most of the gold analysts scenarios that Barons printed have
had egg on their faces since spring of 96

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 14:28
Squirrel (Democracy depends on widespread commonly held Gold & Ammo) ID#280214:
Even Mozel would agree with that. Correct?

There is no way that just Goldbugs can buy enough ammo & Gold
to preserve this nation and return it to the ideals we cherish.
We can't do it alone. We need the help of Joe & Jane 6pack.
We need the support of a goodly portion of the populace.
We have to spread the word for tens or hundreds of millions
of individuals to buy their share of Gold and Ammo to help defend
themselves, their families, communities and their nation.

Even if they bought only a dozen boxes of cartridges {500 rounds}
and ONE OUNCE OF GOLD PER PERSON - as fifty 10-grain coins
they would be doing a lot to insure our democracy & freedom.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 14:25
EJ (Another difference between now and '29) ID#45173:
The dynamics of a debt cycle induced deflation were poorly understood and not as easily communicated as today via TV and the Internet. There will be no suckers' rally, only steady declines and periods of sideways movement punctuated with sharp declines.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 14:14
crazytimes (There's one big difference between '29 and now....) ID#342376:
The fact that Joe Sixpack is in the market now. Chas is right, the Big Boys will need to get out, so a few rallies would allow them to do that, selling a percentage with each rally. Sounds to me like the wealth distribution curve is going to get worse when Joe Sixpack is taken for the ride of his life. Yep, the rich get richer and the uppermiddle, middle, and poor get poorer. These are the things revolutions are made of. Say goodbuy to discount brokerage firms too after this is over.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 14:09
Envy (Thinking like a Bear) ID#219363:
Is easy - take the DOW graph, and the graphs in individual stocks, flip it over, and start looking for a bottom. The recent activity should feel encouraging, your graphs have made good gains lately, and there's a lot of bad news to push the graphs up even more. Remember the zero ceiling, our graphs have an infinite bottom, and a static top. Don't get caught holding shorts when your graph starts spiking down too much as there is unlimited downside potential. Remember that the strong stocks move up the slowest, and that as a bear, you've got to pick out the weak animals and chase them down, tear them limb from limb, and feast on their remains. Watch for companies that carry a lot of debt, companies that have high exposure to failing markets around the world, companies with poor leadership, or a history of bad decisions. Seek out liars, people who don't re-invest in their companies, companies with financial or legal troubles. Watch for things that could destroy bull-ish confidence in the markets or individual stocks. Watch for companies who have poor earnings outlooks, companies that are slipping, distoring the truth. Look for stuff that will go to zero, and forget about gold and oil, they're already topping out near zero, basically any good news will send them falling to infinity. It's important to get a taste for blood, watch for the bad news, and imagine all the stock owners as cash cows, big bloated pigs, good eat'n. Turn into a bear-dipster, and buy on days when the graph spikes down, because it's bound to go back up.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 14:04
Grizz (Mozel - that Grizzly future reminds me of medieval history) ID#424394:
Or maybe worse than medieval
Maybe I've watched too many movies.

Where the feudal lords send their troops out to collect the taxes.

And where occupation troops live off the land

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 14:00
blooper (Envy) ID#207145:
As long as we are being trashed here, I can guarantee you we will make money. Contrary? Si. Buy the way Chas knows the big boys. We got an inside srtaight. Good luck. I will chech out of this rally a little on the soon side.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:57
EJ (Deflation with a twist) ID#45173:
Agreed that in the short term, cash is a security blanket in a deflation. Unlike the past deflationary depressions, however, there are no currencies now that are not debt instruments. Modern cash notes are like non-interest bearing bonds issued by governments. When the world debt crisis peaks and the debt structure collapses, a currency will lose buying power at a higher rate than the interest that can be paid on debt denominated in that currency. Imagine a deflation where at the same time the money supply is imploding, the purchasing power of your currency is also dropping. No one has any money and no one can buy much with the money they have. So the historical rule that will be broken in this deflationary depression is that cash will NOT be king, because no cash exists, per se, only debt notes; debt will be destroyed and the currencies based on that debt will be ruined along with it.

Gold is a hedge against this most dark of possible scenarios. Perhaps the possibility of such a calamity explains why central banks and the IMF are holding onto gold reserves and not continually selling them off.


Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:56
blooper (Chas Knows what the BIG boys are doing) ID#207145:
You are very smart young man. I will call you GURU. Guru Chas and the BIG BOYZ. Great name for a band.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:47
Envy (It'll be a bear when ...) ID#219363:
The average person doesn't think of a fall as a temporary dip on the way up, but as a continuation of a decent that was interupted by a rally.

The people on television stop referring to people who get out as easilly scared, jumping ship and start referring to them as intuitive investors who realized it was coming to an end.

The average person listens to a bearish analyst and starts thinking the bullish analyst is a twit.

The average bull stops feeling like his/her persistence and faith is paying off, and starts thinking he/she is becoming a martyr.

The bears start smiling, and the bulls start crying.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:42
mozel (@Grizz) ID#153102:
Gee, your Future Vision seems close. No more middleman IRS. That's all.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:40
George__A (Anyone) ID#433172:
What if any significance does a steady volume of about 3% per day of shares issued have, at pretty much the same price. DROOY has traded about 70,000 shares a day recently, none of the other stocks have been that active even added together.

Sharefin- Good post on guns, especially paragraph 6....never use a gun to try and scare anyone,period.

Sighting devices, very important but whats best?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:36
blooper (Envy) ID#207145:
Secondary rallys average 62 %. I'm gone at 40%. ( of the retracement ) . Got to go, be back later. Daughter ( 14 ) needs a cheauffer.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:34
Goldteck (Gold and Newmont) ID#431200:
EJ Thanks Best Regards Goldteck.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:33
blooper (CASH) ID#207145:
Is a security blanket. Warm and cozy.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:33
Envy (@Blooper) ID#219363:
I'm calling rally as well, sometime next week I'm guessing. I think the rally will be easy enough to guess, it's the top of the rally that concerns me, timing that will be difficult, and it's important.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:33
chas (Rally ? on Dow) ID#147201:
I have to go along with the Bloop on this. How else are the Big Boys going to get out?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:32
blooper (Very nervous) ID#207145:
Trading the rally when it comes. Ain't this fun?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:31
Grizz (Unpaid military in Russia - same recipe for the United States.) ID#424394:
If the US Gov't can't pay its troops
will they still be willing to fire on their own people?
And be away from their families for months/years
while their friends and extended families back home
are at the mercy of rapists, thugs & thieves.
{Their immediate families might be on a military post -
but the troops will be on duty elsewhere - other cities or,
according to NWO conspiracy theories, in other countries.}

Will the troops work for nothing?
Especially after Y2K destroys the Gov't payroll system and
our economy disintegrates and there is little income to tax.
{Especially if producers are herded into concentration camps.}

What options will Clinton have?
Pay the soldiers in ever increasing amounts of scrip?
Just have them work for nothing? In capitalist America? NOT!
Pay them in Gold from Fort Knox - not bloody likely either!

Will these troops, esp. single guys and minorities with a grudge
from burned-out city cores with who have nothing left to lose
then become heavily armed FORAGING bands of looters themselves?
Combine tenuous authority from Washington to control the populace
with the above and even our most pessimistic forecasts
may not be pessimistic enough.

So we are back to lead & brass as the reserve currency.
Where does Gold & Silver fit in?
As bribes to the local military officer/dictator/gang leader?
What is to prevent him from taking your Gold instead?

What a Grizzzzzzly future!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:27
blooper (Puetz) ID#207145:
Looking for that volume reversal day to scalp a few bucks. Great rally for those who sell short to shine.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:26
sharefin (Gotta like this one...) ID#284255:
00-01-01:00:00 will be the equivalent of the world's biggest release of new software in history. *Every piece of code* will be run for the first time under real-world y2k conditions *simultaneously*.
Gullibility Virus Spreading over the Internet!

WASHINGTON, D.C.--The Institute for the Investigation of Irregular Internet
Phenomena announced today that many Internet users are becoming infected by
a new virus that causes them to believe without question every groundless
story, legend, and dire warning that shows up in their inbox or on their
browser. The Gullibility Virus, as it is called, apparently makes people
believe and forward copies of silly hoaxes relating to cookie recipes, email
viruses, taxes on modems, and get-rich-quick schemes.

These are not just readers of tabloids or people who buy lottery tickets
based on fortune cookie numbers, a spokesman said. Most are otherwise
normal people, who would laugh at the same stories if told to them by a
stranger on a street corner. However, once these same people become
infected with the Gullibility Virus, they believe anything they read on the

My immunity to tall tales and bizarre claims is all gone, reported one
weeping victim. I believe every warning message and sick child story my
friends forward to me, even though most of the messages are anonymous.

Another victim, now in remission, added, When I first heard about Good
Times, I just accepted it without question. After all, there were dozens of
other recipients on the mail header, so I thought the virus must be true.
It was a long time, the victim said, before she could stand up at a Hoaxees
Anonymous meeting and state, My name is Jane, and I've been hoaxed. Now,
however, she is spreading the word. Challenge and check whatever you read,
she says.

Internet users are urged to examine themselves for symptoms of the virus,
which include the following:

The willingness to believe improbable stories without thinking. The
urge to forward multiple copies of such stories to others. A lack of
desire to take three minutes to check to see if a story is true.

T. C. is an example of someone recently infected. He told one reporter,
I read on the Net that the major ingredient in almost all shampoos
makes your hair fall out, so I've stopped using shampoo. When told
about the Gullibility Virus, T. C. said he would stop reading email, so that
he would not become infected.

Anyone with symptoms like these is urged to seek help immediately.
Experts recommend that at the first feelings of gullibility, Internet
users rush to their favorite search engine and look up the item tempting
them to thoughtless credence. Most hoaxes, legends, and tall tales have
been widely discussed and exposed by the Internet community.

Courses in critical thinking are also widely available, and there is
online help from many sources, including

Department of Energy Computer Incident Advisory Capability at

Symantec Anti Virus Research Center at

McAfee Associates Virus Hoax List at

Dr. Solomons Hoax Page at

The Urban Legends Web Site at

Urban Legends Reference Pages at

Datafellows Hoax Warnings at

Those people who are still symptom free can help inoculate themselves
against the Gullibility Virus by reading some good material on evaluating
sources, such as

Evaluating Internet Research Sources at

Evaluation of Information Sources at

Bibliography on Evaluating Internet Resources at

Lastly, as a public service, Internet users can help stamp out the
Gullibility Virus by sending copies of this message to anyone who forwards
them a hoax.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:23
blooper (Mr Peutz) ID#207145:
I enjoy everyones opinion. I do not consider mine better than anyone elses. It is great fun? Yes.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:19
hugo (charts are extremely positive) ID#402151:
Contrary to some comments, imhview the weekly gold chart is setting up for a huge upsurge. Since the January lows we've traced out a familiar reversal pattern. The bears have failed to take out the Jan lows and are about to throw in the towel. If this coming week fails to move lower than last week look out above. In any event this next week will be the turning point.

If the Jan are taken out, we'll probably go below
$200. More likely, we'll be at 350 before November. Call options are exremely cheap

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:19
blooper (Negativity) ID#207145:
Way too much negativity. This is when positive things happen out of the blue. Long term VERY negative.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:19
Puetz (Stock Market Crash -- Update) ID#222167:
The Phase-3 decline ( that began on August 7th ) will last a
little longer than I originally thought. Stocks will
most likely continue decling this coming week, and possibly
into the following week -- before a strong counter-trend
rally takes hold during the last few days of August and
the first few days of September.

Even though the DJIA fell 170 last week, the action was
more like a top than a bottom. Bargin-hunting rallies
popped up all week. Finally, on Friday, various sentiment
indicators ( VIX, put activity ) showed that the bulls are
about ready to give up on bargain-hunting for a while.

A much larger decline should hit the DJIA this week --
probably in the 500-800 point range. The end of the
Phase-3 decline will probable be a record-volume hook-
reversal day -- with the DJIA down 300-400 points early
in the day, and recovering most of the losses before the
close. This will happen late this week, or early next

The big crash will take place during September. It will
make next weeks sell-off look like fun-and-games. More


Steve Puetz

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:18
EJ (Newmont Gold in Barron's) ID#45173:
August 17, 1998
Down, But Not Out

A host of stocks that may have been overpunished are ripe for the picking


John Manley, strategist at Salomon Smith Barney, warns that gold stocks, another group strongly
represented on our list, should be scrutinized more than other stocks because they don't usually
trade on earnings estimates-instead, they trade on the price of gold.

Nevertheless, Leanne Baker, Manley's colleague and a gold analyst, remains a fan of issues like
Newmont Gold, Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold, Placer Dome and Barrick Gold, on the
belief that gold prices are very close to a bottom, as the European Central Bank finishes clearing
its inventory and speculators quit selling. In fact, Baker believes gold may trade at $350 an ounce
next year. Her best pick is Newmont, where she raves about low-cost production.

Similarly, Gerry Sandel, a fan of out-of-favor situations who steers $1.1 billion Stein-Roe Special,
admires Barrick, noting that it's reducing costs, improving productivity, and enjoys good cash
flow, which gives it the opportunity to buy up other, more efficient mines, and a string of gold
hedges that can put off an appointment with death.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:12
blooper (Like Oldman) ID#207145:
I expect a .62 % retracement of the recent decline. Nikki at 15,000 means Japaneese government will be buying their asses of for 10 days or so.Probably to start Tuesday or so. After this secondary rally of up to near 9,000, The direction is down. In October we will have a mini--crash.
This market will confound the most astute of forecasters and investors. Also look for the Fed to reduce interest rates within the next few months causing a new top to be formed, complete with blowoff run ups. Sound strange? Just watch.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:10
Goldteck (Gold & Newmont. ) ID#431200:
Somebody mentioned on a Yahoo Board that Barron's has published this week- end an article on Gold and Newmont.If it's true what did Barron's say about Newmont.Thanks.Goldteck

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:07
jtaher (thanks for the info!) ID#249409:
Guns, gold, and grub - where else but Kitco can you get such good advice?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:03
sharefin (Who do you trade with?) ID#284255:
Many Securities Firms Do Not Have Y2K Plans, Survey Shows

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 13:00
sharefin (Email chatter: Y2k Insurance) ID#284255:
From what I have read at Gary's site and elsewhere..all but four states
have granted immunity to insurance coverage of Y2K relate events..Two
companies are carrying coverage with astronomical rates.. the rest don't
have to worry about it..
If your car doesn't start..your insurance company will not be paying..
I have seen reports from Australia this spring and now last week here in
Houston's paper also, that insurance of medical practice will not cover
y2k faults and so hospitols won't hire Dr.'s, who won't have coverage,
to accept patients, so sell you medical stocks soon.

Got physical

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 12:59
Envy (Fields) ID#219363:
Meadows, trees, grasses, the child's head tilted slightly to the side, these things fill his eyes. The valley stretches out far below, with homes, and towns, and people. Quiet, save the sounds of the wind in his ears, hair whipped about, shirt lifted and twisted, standing as a statue on the mountain over-look, clothed loosely and beaten by the gusty wind. Scents of dried leaves and honey, sun on his shoulders and neck, he just stands there, eyes steady, curious, intent, gazing across the valley below, distant mists, canopy of clouds. No expression, or words, or movement, watching, peaceful, no attention to the women resting moments away.

I wonder what he's thinking about, whispers one.
Mother frowns, It's hard to say, he's a strange child.

Somewhere one of our future leaders is dreaming.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 12:58
sharefin (Email chatter - not my writing) ID#284255:
Oh, how much you wanta spend?

1. Can't beat the lowly .22 LR in hollow point for 99% of practice and
pinking fun. My EMT brother tells me more death is caused by these than
all other calibers combined. Some protective vests will stop bigger
stuff but the lowly .22 can get thru. Bullet smashes up so much can't
be read for rifling and it zig zags around inside and well, assasins
like it. Get a pistol and rifle and 10,000 rds. Walmart, Kmart,
Academy best for .22's.

2. Chair throwing distances, front porch, next to the car, across the
room, then think, revolvers ( simple & reliable ) , and semiautos
( complexer, faster, can & do jam ) . I like .38/.357 rvolver, and .45
auto with double stack magazine ( fits big paws with more pops ) . Get a
couple of magazines worth of bad to the bone ammo like Magsafe fragile
rounds that is expensive, controlable and the MOST EFFECTIVE in any
caliber. A few boxes of factory hollow points. A sack load of cheaper
reloads in FMJ or HP to practice and trade with, oh say 3000 to 5000
rds, about $180 per 1000 of .45's, less for smaller calibers. Gun shows
best place to do these cash deals. If you all gonna be out and about on
farm land, or civilization carry a pistol for protection and
signaling, maybe smaller caliber for weight and convence or concealment,
I like like the AMT back up in .380 cal., pocket size 6 shot and with
Magsafe bullets, more stopping power that badest .45 hollow point!

3. To control the front yard or parking lot or barn yard from wild hogs,
or strange cars I like a shotgun, 12 or 20 gage with 00 buck or slugs.
The pump type will shoot all kinds/sizes of its particular gage, and its
chambering sound alone is effective, but got to work your arms and
elbows and can't do that well laying behind ground cover or around a
corner if people like me are aiming your way. An automatic is more
prone to jam and needs a specific size/power shell to work, but oh my
g-d what the modern 7 shot riot gun can put out in pellets in a hurry,
more than machine guns. I got one now but only after wild hogs became a
menice and realized that 300 to 500+ lbs each of several hogs at once
was more that the pumpgun or even military stuff was up to, even the big
dogs ran just on hearing them approach!. 100 rd of slugs, 400 rds
buckshot, and 500+ rds of field and bird and rabit shot. Packs of wild
'pet' dogs may also call for shatter gun use over pistolas or rifles.

4. Football size fleids, out past the pond, over on that rise, and way
down the road distances need the rifle. I like the $800 to $1200,
AR15's ( semiauto M16 ) , and the M1 action types like the $ 350 to $550,
Ruger Mini 14, in .223 cal. 300 yards is just warm up for it and most
of us ain't got clear views beyond that anyway, unless its overhead
flying objects. It is small enough to carry a bunch and is plenty
powerful in standard FMJ to go to war with. Costs around 15 to 18 cents
a rd. or about 165/1000. The more expensive and getting hard to find,
Nato SS-109 .223 ammo has boatail, hardened steel core, 62 grain, 3000
fps, 1300 ft lbs energy bullet and is more reliable than the also great
30.06 or .308 cartridges, to go thru metal or Kelvar vests and helmets
at over 700 yards. ( yeah, I know but look it up or try it ) costs about
.25cents a round and 1000 of this good idea. 5000 ( or double this ) in
standard FMJ ball and a few hundered in soft lead tips for hunting up to
deer size animals.

5. For beyond a fair fight distance like 1000 yards follow the inverse
square law of dig deepper in pocket to reach out furher. I got a .300
Win Magmun bolt action that is about 50% bigger/badder than 30.06/.308
and mostly for the rare kodiak bears and more common vechicle type
varmints. Many things in the elephant size guns and calibers that you
can shop for, but my experience here is limited and can't advise except
maybe the belt fed semiauto, converted, WWII type machine guns in 30.06
or .50 would satify most needs and wants w/o being a licensed Ferderal
gun agent. BTW .50 cal armor pericing is about 2 bucks a pop, but will
reach out and wreck most ojects at 5 miles. I see it in Sportsman's
Guide, 240 rds on belts for 180 dollars.

6. Remember if gun needed for people control; if it isn't dangerous
enough to die or kill for then don't shoot or show gun and if it IS,
then give no warning or show the weapon till the surprise ending. All
guns should always be loaded and thereby treated as if all are always
loaded. Teach kids what they are about and where they are so no
surprises and lay down the rules firm. Spend enough time and money to
play with what you get, to find the errors, parts faults and fumbles now
and not later. Give some thought to what you might have to do, we never
know till it happens but it helps to have the descion points set in mind
prior to trouble.


rest for practice and stock up on reloads mostly FMJ which is
Here are my main firearms

M1 Garand - 500 rounds

M1991A1 .45 ACP - 300 round

Here are guns I keep around to give to my family members when they finally come around ( that should be around 04/01/99 )

Ruger 10/22 - 5000 rounds

M1 Carbine - 500 rounds

SKS - 500 round

Askia rifle ( A Japanese rifle from W.W.II, uses a 7.7mm cartridge and is
bolt action ) - 200 rounds

Ruger 22 pistol - 500 rounds

Ithaca .22 Magnum Lever action rifle - 300 rounds

I would stay away from reloading equipment, unless you plan to mass
produce ammo before Y2K, otherwise you would be better off just buying the
ammo. Also the powder and primers in pre assembled bullets last much
longer that the individual components.

Here is my web address, the site deals with firearms and goes into greater details

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 12:52
crazytimes (Oldman....) ID#342376:
Oldman has noted on another forum ( avidtrader ) that he is a bear on equities. I would consider him one of our best forcasters, if not the best. He expects incredible volatility and a few crash ups to begin happening, but the trend is down. It is interesting that he told a story of how his relatives used to call him at the slightest dip in the market, but not now. ( complacency ) The market is 10% off it's highs and most aren't blinking an eye. I would love to hear what he has to say about Gold. Are you out there Oldman?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 12:52
George__A (Grant) ID#433172:
Whats a good sighting device? Those red dot ( not laser ) 45mm tubes? How about a good sight for a M1 3006?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 12:51
John Disney__A (Springboks 24 - All Blacks 23) ID#24135:
for Salty ..
Did you see it Some Game !

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 12:34
sharefin (US Gov't White Paper on Y2k) ID#284255:
Y2k for France
Y2k test for your PC.
cory hamasaki 508 days...

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 12:29
grant (And while I'm on the gun thing (there's gold in it), I missed the discussions) ID#432221:

early this mornin' on the subject of the best to have if you only have the minimum.
I certainly don't have the minimum, I do alot of shooting both competitively and here at home. Ive piddled with reloading, chronograph testing,accuracy and accuracy/velocity testing and development, accurizing, smithing and tuning, and terminal ballistics testing in silicone gum ( similar to ballistic gelatin but reuseable ) .
I've developed some strong opinions as to the best firearm/ammo combinations there are. Here are a few of 'em and then the gold part.
In a survival bugout situation that does not include humans shooting at you, .357 or .44 mag with a 8 bbl will do your hunting and defense work for you if you're a good shot.
In a bugout sit. involving possible defensive encounters with armed humans, a light military style .223 tuned and accurized, is what ya need ( Mini-14, AR-15,etc )
If you're stayin put and gotta worry about lotsobadguys, you cant do better than a minimum of a long barreled 12 ga. pump with a full choke. 35-40 yd guaranteed multi pellet hits with #4 buck 3' mag. ( 41 X .25 pellet ) .
Longer work- M1A ( civilian M-14 ) .308 , tuned and bedded will do .75-1.25 groups at 100 yds, 30 round mags, tough as nails, and reliability approaching perfection. Use 168 grain JHP Fed Matchking in any .308 or 30-06,
Sidearm- Para-Ordnance or equivalent tuned high capacity 45 Govornment. 15 round capacity, lotsa punch, and can be very reliable.
200 grain Flyin' Ashtray Speer hollow point bullet is the absolute best.
Gold part; traded a golden eagle for a M-1 carbine the guy wanted $365 for, when spot was $290. If you find the right guy, you can get great deals cause they know the value of the yellow stuff. There's another guy at the gunshow that will always trade gold for his guns.
Beans, bullets, and PMs. Gotta have it. If you ain't got it, get it. better hurry, and ya don't need to be leavin' your name behind.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 12:29
OLD GOLD (EJ) ID#242325:
David Tice is 100% on target. The Fed will be lowering rates before long to try and head off a seious recession. How successful they will be I don't know. But lower short rates sure will put the squeeze on the gold carry trade. A new gold bull is coming up, but it looks like new lows first. The APH target of $276 Decemebr gold looks quite realistic.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 12:24
oris (Jtaher) ID#238422:
Grant covered .303 question quite nicely. I got 2 of them,
and they are great guns in V.G.-Exc. Condition. Mine are
very accurate, because bore is O.K., like Grant said.
SMLE #4 can be shot very fast thanks to the design of the
action. I see the problem in design of the magazine - if
magazine lips are sligtly out ( bent ) , feeding may not be
reliable, particularly for the last round. But I like
.303 anyway. Good SMLE #4 should cost you at least $125.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 12:13
Jung (To Rhody) ID#237164:
you saind in a recent post:

... dollars which are already 18% overvalued ...

Could you tell us how you come to that conclusion? I have tried to
compare various currencies to the US$, and cannot come to that
conclusion ...


Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 12:08
Goldteck (A debt crisis in emerging countries is about to strike, and with it comes heightened fears of a glob) ID#431200:

What's that whistling noise?
A debt crisis in emerging countries is about to strike, and with it comes heightened fears of a global recession
By DAVID THOMAS Saturday, August 15, 1998
Economics Reporter The Financial Post
 Emerging markets are submerging at an alarming pace and, in the process, have stirred up all the financial ingredients necessary to create a global debt bomb.
 As the crisis looms larger, analysts say the only way to avoid a major explosion is to move to lower interest rates in the world's major economies.
 If that happens, the added stimulus can keep the economic expansion intact, allowing the West to buy up excess global production and keep the sinking nations afloat.
 Unfortunately, western economies are equally focused on a potential return of inflation and are still talking about raising rates.
 In the meantime, the clock keeps ticking.
 When the enormity of the Asian financial crisis became apparent last fall, the International Monetary Fund swept in to lead a rescue package that quickly escalated from a few billion dollars to nearly US$120 billion for Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines and Thailand.
 Now it appears last year's heroic first aid mission could end up looking like a flimsy Band-Aid on a gaping, festering wound. The recipients of aid are showing renewed signs of strain and several other trouble spots, including Russia, have since emerged to compete for the IMF's attention.
 We are dangerously on the brink of a major debt crisis, warns Chen Zhao, managing editor of emerging markets research for the Montreal-based Bank Credit Analyst Research Group. There are a lot of weak links right now and any one could break at any time.
 Unlike average investors, who are caught up in the daily swings of individual markets, Zhao's attentions are focused on wider liquidity flows in the global picture. That big picture has him, and others, growing increasingly nervous.
 The IMF cannot save the world because they've run out of money. I think somebody will have to go under.
 In a recent report, economists Giles Keating and Neal Soss of Credit Suisse First Boston Corp. echoed Zhao.
 Drawing parallels between recent events and the 1982 emerging market debt crisis in Latin America, Keating and Soss suspect several regional crises are due to take a turn for the worse.
 And there is a growing risk the crises will spread from regional events to a global one, they argue. Some of the weaker Asian countries still have the potential for new crises that would tilt the whole world over the brink into recession.
 International bank lending to emerging markets in Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe is estimated at between US$900 billion and US$1 trillion, according to recent figures from the Bank for International Settlements and the Organization for Economic Co-operation & Development.
 The BCA group endorses the lower US$900-billion figure and estimates private and other lending to be the same size, adding up to a towering US$1.8-trillion mountain of foreign debt held by emerging nations.
 It took years of negotiation, but in the end the 1982 debt crisis resulted in a writedown of about 35% of bad debt. If history repeats itself, creditors would be on the hook for writedowns of about US$630 billion -- enough to severely strain the global financial system and knock the world into a deep recession. CS First Boston estimates the IMF has only US$15 billion to US$20 billion in reserves to draw on -- a mere drop in the bucket.
 So how did the world get into this mess in the first place? Zhao of BCA says it boils down fundamentally to the reaction to a long-term decline in bond yields in the industrial world since the early 1980s.
 At that time, debt held by emerging market nations was less than US$400 billion and long-term U.S. borrowing costs were peaking at about 15%. The U.S. long-term rate is now about 5.5%, while the average rate in emerging markets works out to nearly 30%, according to a BCA study.
 That differential has led western investors to chase the higher returns of more risky, less-developed markets. Firms overseas, especially in the once-hot Asian tiger economies, borrowed in US$ and other currencies at lower rates abroad than they would get at home.
 Portfolio managers' love affair with emerging markets loosened credit strings and led, in turn, to massive overinvestment in industrial capacity that ran up the value of assets such as real estate.
 European banks were late in joining the Asian investment boom but, led by the Germans, they quickly made up for lost time. They now account for more than half of bank lending to both Asia and to emerging markets as a group.
 To avoid a major collapse, analysts say we need to see several developments, including: a move to lower interest rates in the U.S. and Europe's major economies; more IMF funding and some immediate action to back up promises of financial reforms in Japan.
 Crisis-plagued economies need to see an export-led recovery in order to attract foreign exchange and pay off debt. But industrial production and prices are collapsing and only strong demand from the West will stave off a deeper stumble.
 The afflicted economies also need to lower interest rates to kickstart their economies. Again, there's a big hitch because that would lead to a speedup in runaway inflation and to renewed runs on their currencies, leading to yet another round of devaluations and even higher debt costs.
 In the meantime, capital is fleeing the affected markets in droves. According to the BIS, global investors sent a net US$62 billion into Southeast Asian markets in the first half of 1997. In the second half, the balance swung to a net exodus of US$108 billion.
 Odds are rising that the emerging markets could remain locked in a vicious, self-feeding circle of rising interest rates, asset liquidation and falling stock prices and currencies, the BCA concluded in a recent report. At the end point of such a nightmare scenario, Asia's debt crisis would inevitably spread to other regions.
 You don't have to look hard to pick out some of the weaker links in the global debt picture. Russia has grabbed headlines this week as even a US$22.6-billion IMF emergency rescue package arranged last month has been unable to stabilize its debt crisis.
 Ukraine and Pakistan are lower-profile recipients of recent IMF aid packages. And South Korea is targeting Japan for bilateral aid after collecting nearly US$60 billion in last year's IMF-led bailout. Meanwhile, Indonesia and Thailand have had to go back to various international agencies for top-ups to last year's huge loans.
 The IMF is not able to keep putting these packages together indefinitely, says Amy Falls, an emerging markets analyst with Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. in New York.
 In Russia, the problems have piled up in a menacing heap. Stocks and the currency are plummeting in value; the government can't meet its short-term fiscal requirements and has been unable to raise money by issuing new bonds; interest rates are soaring; the number of bad loans is growing; the financial system is faltering; and a currency devaluation is likely on the way, despite government assurances to the contrary.
 The Russian government has vowed to bolster its finances by chasing millions of delinquent income tax filers. Meanwhile, a group of businesses has banded together to hire Burston-Marsteller, one of the largest public relations firms in the world, to coax some good feelings out of the West.
 Unfortunately, no amount of positive PR or overdue tax collections stands a chance of giving Russia a reprieve. Russia can't repay its debt at all, says Zhao bluntly. The IMF money has just bought Russia some time.
 Russia's foreign debt totals more than US$200 billion, according to the BCA research group in Montreal. Investor confidence has disappeared and it's costing a bundle for Russia just to stay afloat. Short-term interest rates have shot up recently from less than 30% to more than 200%.
 I think there's a real risk that Russia is going to have to restructure its debt and/or devalue its currency, says Falls of Morgan Stanley. International financier George Soros has joined the debate, calling for a 15% to 25% devaluation.
 A ruble devaluation would raise risk premiums and put added strain on other vulnerable markets, Falls says. You tend to see these selloffs happen in waves.
 If Russia goes, Brazil would likely be next and it would take Argentina down with it, Zhao says. South Africa is also at risk. Back in Asia, Hong Kong's pegged dollar is coming under huge pressure and is putting added pressure on the Chinese yuan, or renminbi as it is also known.
 Hong Kong is stuck facing a massive recession if it doesn't abandon its peg to the US$. Even if Hong Kong decides to hold its currency pegged to the US$, a much-feared currency devaluation by China would break the peg, Zhao argues.
 In the beginning, we thought China would not devalue, but now we think they'll have to.
 A 35% writedown on emerging market debt would translate into a staggering US$200-billion hit to European banks. Canada's exposure is much smaller by value, but nearly identical if calculated as a percentage of total bank capital ( 76.8% versus 78.5% for Europe ) .
 Banks in Japan, where there is already a ballooning bad debt problem in the neighborhood of US$1 trillion, have lent 118% of their capital to emerging markets. China accounts for more than half that total and the remainder has gone largely to crisis-stricken nations in Southeast Asia.
 Shifting from the scary big picture to daily markets, there are positive signs, such as Friday's huge gains for stocks in Hong Kong and Russia. But lurking in the background, the debt bomb continues to tick.
 It's time to be careful, Zhao says, then adds in an ominous tone: It's dangerous outside.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 12:02
sharefin (Assured Failure: Businesses Plan to Skip Testing) ID#284255:
SEC's Fall-Back Position: Tell Companies to File on Paper
What if Policemen Stay Home?
Good plug for golden-eagle....
Large Firms Predict 76% Compliance by 1/1/2000

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 11:58
EJ (As in the 'Twenties, it will burst, bringing deflation and painful recession) ID#45173:
August 17, 1998 [Barron's Online]

American Bubble

As in the 'Twenties, it will burst, bringing deflation
and painful recession

[thin rule]
By David W. Tice

While Wall Street wonders whether these past few weeks
signal the end of the stock market bubble, a more
important question for Main Street is, Is the economic
bubble ready to burst, as well? This bubble is the
result of America's new found limitless ability to create
credit, which in turn has induced businesses to expand
too far and for consumers to spend far beyond their

This credit-induced bubble will burst, sooner rather than
later. We've seen credit bubbles popping elsewhere, in
Japan nine years ago and in Southeast Asia recently.
These economies imploded because expanding credit turned
quickly into contractions. It could happen here, leading
to a self-feeding economic and financial collapse.

This, of course, sounds crazy to anyone looking only at
low inflation, moderate interest rates and a Fed chairman
who seems to have the economy totally under his control.
But there is more to economic health than stable prices.
Just because most recessions start with a rise in
interest rates, it doesn't mean they always do. A
tug-of-war between supply-driven deflation and
credit-driven inflation has yielded the stable price
level so prized today by the Fed and most investment
strategists. By separating these countervailing forces,
we can see the end of the credit bubble.

Let's take deflation first. Effective use of technology,
corporate layoffs and manufacturing outsourcing have
generally raised productivity and reduced costs.
Meanwhile, a worldwide capital-spending boom has brought
down the marginal cost of production. As a share of gross
domestic product, American capital investment has risen
to 17% in 1997 from 13% in 1990, representing a 30%
increase. Specifically, half the real annual increase in
investment has been in the high-tech sector.

One would expect all of this new capacity and efficiency
to result in lower prices overall. In fact, we should be
asking ourselves how consumer prices can be increasing at
all. Yet consumer prices are creeping higher at a rate of
1%-2% year. This rise in the general price level wouldn't
have been possible without substantial monetary stimulus
in the form of rampant credit and the issuance of new
equity. This liquidity boom has been the force tugging
frantically against deflation, creating a dangerous asset
inflation in stocks, real estate and luxury goods.

Our environment of easy, breezy credit can be
demonstrated both anecdotally and with hard numbers. The
U.S. money supply as measured by M3 has been growing at
an annual rate of more than 10% for the past year. The
balance sheet of Japan's central bank has recently grown
at a 50% annual rate, providing a massive injection for
bond and equity markets around the world. Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac have expanded their assets at compound rates
of 17% and 31% over the last five years. U.S. bank loans
for securities purchases have increased at a 50% rate
over the past year. Meanwhile, total household debt is at
a record percentage of GDP, and has grown as a percentage
of income to 95% from 68% over the past 10 years. For
that we can thank the home-equity loan, the six-year car
loan and junk mail with credit cards attached.

The boom in home-equity loans is especially worrisome.
When individuals who were arguably overleveraged before
are given the ability to borrow 125% of their home value,
families can easily live beyond their means.
Additionally, a tremendous amount of money has been
borrowed by consumers in anticipation of stock-market
gains, much of it in home-equity loans or loans against
401 ( k ) accounts. This is in addition to margin debt,
which has recently swelled at a 50% annual rate.

[Media] Economic bulls argue that credit expansion as
measured by the government has been modest, but
bank credit is only one ball in the credit lottery. Just
as our changing economy made the focus on M1 obsolete,
how we judge the growth in leverage in the economy is due
for an update as well. The formal banking system is
responsible for a much lower percentage of total lending,
thanks to a proliferation of new types of financial
institutions. Now there are also derivatives and
outperformance contracts, esoteric swap agreements and
overseas borrowing. There are loans made by non-banks
that are securitized and sold to institutions to the tune
of billions of dollars. We can't forget auto leasing, an
arrangement responsible for 30% of new car financings but
a figure still not included in the Federal Reserve's
accounting for consumer debt.

Loan quality and pricing are also important variables,
and it is disturbing that credit spreads are at record
low levels. The respected former chairman of Wachovia
Bank said recently that credit standards were more lax
than at any time in his 40-year career.

There is a precedent for this kind of behavior; we simply
haven't witnessed it in a while. In the 1920s, the Fed
was also fixated on the general price level while
speculative and credit excesses fueled the economy and
asset inflation. In America's Great Depression, Murray
Rothbard argued logically that inflation from credit
expansion obscured the deflationary forces in the economy
that resulted from an increased supply of goods. The
resulting low inflation of the 1920s persuaded the Fed to
maintain an expansionary policy. This fueled the boom
further and set the stage for the Depression.

Today's bubble will burst as did the bubble of the 1920s
and we will face the potential for dangerous deflation
accompanying a very painful recession. The trigger will
undoubtedly be a broad and deep stock-market decline set
off by any number of factors, most likely a sharp decline
in corporate profits or a significant problem in a
foreign economy ( but probably not higher interest rates ) .

After the credit-induced stimulus side of the equation is
wiped out by a stock-market plunge, the economy will be
left with the deflationary side growing stronger as
demand falls dramatically in the recession. Once
deflation starts, no matter how hard the Fed tries, there
could still be a contraction in the money supply just as
there was in the 1930s in the U.S. and currently in

The prevailing view today is that the 1930s Fed made a
huge mistake by being restrictive and, having learned its
lesson, will be extremely accommodative to avoid any
future deflationary bout. Rothbard found that the Fed
tried mightily to inject reserves, yet still there was a
contraction in the money supply.

Again this time, bankers will realize that they can't
continue to aggressively extend credit once delinquencies
start going through the roof. Therefore, again it may be
impossible to expand the money supply and prevent

Let's hope we can avoid mistakes in trade, tax and
monetary policy in the recession's aftermath that could
make a terrible recession even worse. The problem is that
it will be easy to make mistakes in an effort for a
quick fix to solve millions of citizens' significant
pain. It's just a shame that our policy-makers let the
party go on this long.


DAVID W. TICE manages the Prudent Bear mutual fund. His
Dallas-based research firm advises more than 150
institutional investors.

P.S. I strongly recommend to anyone at Kitco to buy a subscription to WSJ online. It's like $48/yr and you also get Barron's.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 11:56
africanminer__A (price of gold) ID#200305:
as long as the international investors continue to believe the US economy is sound then the dollar is going to be king and gold is goinig to remain depressed. But if there is a shift in the perception of the US situation money will flow out so fast, driving the price of gold up and dollar down. until this happens POG will continue in its established trading range $270-$314.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 11:54
EJ (If Past Is Prologue, Y2K Worrywarts Might Know Something) ID#45173:
August 17, 1998 [Barron's Online]

If Past Is Prologue, Y2K Worrywarts Might Know Something;
Four Downturns Began With Decades

[thin rule]
By Gene Epstein [byline photo]

New-millennium spooks who care about the economy might
take note of some disturbing facts. According to the
official arbiter of these matters, the National Bureau of
Economic Research, the years 1960, '70, '80 and '90 all
marked the beginning of a recession. Maybe even more
ominous, according to the same source, 1900 was a year of
recession that first struck in June 1899. So, as the year
2000 looms before us, do the gods of economics plan more
of the same?

Speaking of 1990, there's an equally unsettling portent
in the July 5 Wall Street Journal of that year, which
summarized the paper's semiannual survey of economic
forecasts. The article began, Falling interest rates
will bolster the sagging U.S. economy, helping to avert a
recession for at least another year, according to a
survey of 40 economists ...

Well, at least they were willing to speak the R-word,
even if they didn't realize the earth was already moving
under their feet, the 1990-91 recession having begun in
that very month of July. But who were they to predict
that Saddam Hussein would invade Kuwait in August and
bring the oil shock that sparked the downturn -- although
well into October of '90, even Fed Chairman Alan
Greenspan professed no recession was in sight? However,
Greenspan proved to be more alert than one of his fabled
predecessors, Arthur F. Burns, who as Fed chief in August
1974 assured Congress that the economy was still
expanding -- fully nine months into the severe recession
of 1973-75.

But past gaffes aside, most economists today believe the
current expansion will persist well into its ninth year,
which would technically begin in March '99. ( For the
record, this expansion would have to last beyond January
2000 to be the longest period of growth since World War
II, finally beating the 'Sixties run that lasted from
February '61 to December '69. ) I think the consensus is
probably right, and that despite the conflagrations on
the other side of the globe, Fortress America will remain

The main reason for believing the U.S. will stay the
course is that ours is still a relatively closed economy,
despite all that talk about the global marketplace.
Partly because other economies are hurting, we've been
exporting less and importing more. But when reduced to
numbers, the picture doesn't look scary. So far our
negative balance of trade has jumped from 1.8% of gross
domestic product in the second quarter of '97 to 3.4% as
of the second quarter of '98. Goldman Sachs senior
economist Ed McKelvey estimates that about half of that
1.6% isn't related to Asia at all, but to our growing
appetite for goods and services. That leaves a 0.8% ( half
of 1.6 ) drag, which just isn't enough to bring us down.

Then there's the erosion of profits, where Asia clearly
plays an outsized role. According to First Call research
director Charles Hill, after running 3.8% above a year
ago as of the first quarter, operating earnings on S&P
500 companies will probably come in at about 3.0% above a
year ago as of second quarter '98. Against the long-term
trend of 7% growth, that performance isn't great. But
setting aside what the news might do to stock prices, it
hardly means that Corporate America is doing without.
After all, it's coming on the heels of above-trend growth
over the past several years. So on balance, the bottom
line is doing quite nicely. Besides, some of the slowdown
in earnings growth is due to the happy fact that labor is
finally getting its piece of the action.

Finally, as Hoenig chief economist Robert Barbera has put
it, to a great extent, Asia's pain has been Main Street's
( and even Wall Street's ) gain. It's brought cheaper food,
cheaper oil, lower prices generally, lower interest
rates, and a gusher of money that has fled foreign
capital markets for our own.

But this all reminds me of a man I knew who was
pronounced healthy by his doctor after a thorough
physical -- and promptly dropped dead right in the
physician's office. ( Yes, it really happened. ) So in the
interest of not making the same mistake as Dr. Greenspan
in the wake of the last recession, and in a vain attempt
to anticipate the unanticipatable, let's consider those
forces that might cause the economy to contract. They're
threefold and interrelated: the stock market, Asia again,
and what's been called Y2K.

Last week, I pointed out that consumption is being
boosted not so much by a wealth effect -- buying that
results from unrealized capital gains -- but from a
windfall effect: consumer purchases financed by cash from
capital gains that are actually taken. If the stock
market stays flat over the next year or two, or even
declines by another 10%, then this windfall effect may
even intensify, as investors sell ever more stock and buy
things with part of the proceeds.

But something quite different would result if this were
the Big One -- a crash of better than 30% from the peak
with no rebound in the offing. That would cause a quick
erosion in consumer confidence that would more than swamp
the windfall effect. While investors would be taking
profits, they wouldn't spend the money on consumption,
but stash it rather into safe assets like Treasuries and
FDIC-insured bank deposits.

Wrightson Associates chief economist Louis Crandall
believes a market crash would not only break consumer
confidence, but hurt business confidence as well. Instead
of waiting to see whether growth in buying really does
slow, business will react on its own by cutting back on
investment and hiring. That's partly because the
avalanche of bad news from abroad has already made
businesspeople a bit jittery, says Crandall, and more bad
news might just send them over the edge.

Crandall may have a point. I'd add only that a constant
refrain from people I speak to runs like this: Nobody
realizes how bad it is in Asia ... Nobody but everyone,
it seems. So maybe the Asian contagion will turn out to
be a psychosomatic rather than a physical disease,
hurting confidence more than the economy -- but then
indirectly hurting the economy in the end.

Goldman Sachs chief economist William Dudley allows that
a market crash would indeed bring recession, but adds,
We agree with Abby that this isn't in the cards. He's
referring, of course, to the firm's chief investment
strategist, Abby Joseph Cohen, the Earth Mother of the
bull market, whose pronouncements have taken on a
charismatic quality of their own. ( It was fitting that
she recently issued one of them while vacationing in the
Holy Land. ) Her keen intelligence aside, she's come to
symbolize the confidence that is undoubtedly required if
we're going to stay the course.

I'd say confidence will hold. Over the past decade or so,
equities have built up such a huge fund of goodwill among
investors that faith in their ability to deliver the
gold, or at least the silver, will probably persist. Of
course, this reasoning is a bit circular, like many such
arguments about the stock market. If the Dow tumbles back
to 6000, then investors might prove fickle indeed. But
the only way for that to happen is if they lose their
faith in the first place ...

Speaking prescriptively, rather than descriptively, I'd
prefer to see a trading range market over the next couple
of years. That way, with earnings continuing to rise,
P/Es will look a lot more healthy. And at the same time,
as noted above, investors will spend their realized
capital gains and help keep the economy going. Especially
with Ms. Cohen around, a flat scenario seems a lot more
likely than broad retreat.

Another player on the economic stage, Deutsche Morgan
Grenfell chief economist and pessimist Ed Yardeni,
counters Cohen's metaphor of the U.S. economy as
supertanker with -- you guessed it -- the unsinkable ship
Titanic speeding toward an iceberg. Only in this case, he
calls the iceberg Y2K. Similar to that handful of
economists I know who never met an expansion they didn't
dislike, Yardeni sometimes strikes me as one of those
dismal scientists who would refuse to join any economics
club that would have him as a member. Having forecast Dow
10,000 by the year 2000 when virtually no one else was
doing so, he seems to have gotten uncomfortable with all
the company he acquired over the years, and is now
singing a very different tune.

The trouble is, it's worth listening to -- for if Cohen
is our deliverer, Yardeni has become our technological
Jeremiah. As he put it recently, if defective rivets sank
the Titanic, then computers are the rivets of our
economy. But because the year 2000 will appear as 00 in
the computer's two-digit field and be read as 1900, those
rivets will fail us, unless they're fixed in time. ( Hence
Y2K for the year 2000 problem. )

Next week, I'll be discussing Y2K -- the issues and the
challenges, together with how it fits in with the larger
story of recession risks -- but alas, I've run out of

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 11:53
sharefin (Steve in To) ID#284255:
Does that apply to the Japanese and US markets too?
And what of the currency markets?

Seems the best game in town is the rigged markets.
The ones where the big boys play.
And the sheeple follow.

So poignantly put.
Pasted and printed.

Actual reality, hmmmmmm....

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 11:48
Skip (Now it's HANG-ON time!) ID#287129:
Many of us listened to newsletters such as the Wall Street Underground, etc., etc. We took our money out of the DOW too soon and rolled it over into gold stocks and/or leveraged PM's -- and got absolutely bloodied through and through. Personally, I believe that I would be in far better shape right now if I had done NOTHING and the DOW had actually crashed in late 1996 as was predicted by some of these self-appointed analysts.

Nonetheless, if you're like me, you are licking your wounds ( figuratively speaking ) and trying desparately to find bandages to stop the bleeding; or you keep buying gold stocks at the firesale prices, only to find them going down further in value ( such as Pegasus going from .40 to .25 to .15 to .05 and now to .03 -- and down to zero? ) .

It is difficult to know the truth about whether the gold bear will soon be killed by a golden bull, or whether the bear will stay around long enough to send most of the world's gold mines into bankruptcy. However, those of us who have already taken our losses need to HANG ON to whatever gold stocks we have. If you sell out, your losses are GUARANTEED. If you hang on, there is a far greater possiblity of recouping your losses and possibly even finding our current stress and anguish becoming somewhat soothed by some profits. While the DOW bull cannot last forever, we can certainly have empathy for those who lose their shirts as some of us have already done. I certainly know what it feels like, because I'm already having my great depression -- and quite frankly, I don't need another one. This is the pits.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 11:44
EJ (@BUFFORD re: gold in down stock market ) ID#45173:
If we have a controlled, decline in capital markets, triggered by a 20% - 30% stock market drop, where the existing debt burden disallows a reversal of deflationary trends by increases in the money supply and interest rate reductions, then indeed the price of gold will fall much further. The buying power of gold, in dollar terms will probably stay the same. But cash is a better place to be, since the buying value of cash will increase in real terms in a deflation.

The wild card is the disproportionate debt behind the dollar versus other currencies, and the amount of US debt held by foreign nations. This makes the dollar very vulnerable to speculation. Thus while the dollar may be increasing in buying power in real terms, the dollar may be losing value faster due to devaluation relative to other currencies. If that's the case, then cash, bonds, equities, etc., are all bad places to be. That really only leaves gold and silver as safe stores of monetary value.


Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 11:40
Envy (@EJ) ID#219363:
Gotta be a subscriber to read the link.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 11:36
EJ (Barron's recession worries) ID#45173:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 11:33
grant (Jtaher, .303 is ballistically similar to 30-06, and the rifles are very common and inexpensive) ID#432221:

but unfortunately the majority of the older military ammo is/was corrosive.
Many, if not most, of the .303 Enfield I've seen have had pretty crappy bores. The two I've fired left alot to be desired in the accuracy dept.
If you're in the market for a .303, you should find one with a decent bore, which may take some shopping around. The good news is that some minor pitting does not necessarily equate to inaccuracy, but you should always avoid a rifle with pitting or wear of any sort at the muzzle.
One other downside, while .303 ammo is far from rare, it is not nearly as common as other high power rounds such as .308 or 30-06.
Always clean your bore thoroughly with hot soapy water then rinse and oil after firing ANY military surplus .303 ammo as most of it is corrosive.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 11:23
sam__A (The Price of Pigs in Korea) ID#284275:

So ya wanna buy a pig, eh? Here are some quotes for the 24 kt animals from Jin Bo Jewelry ( sic ) , ( tel: 02-798-8322 ) :

Weight ( g ) Price ( Won )
3.75 ( 1 don ) 75,000
7.50 ( 2 don ) 130,000
11.75 ( 3 don ) 190,000
18.75 ( 5 don ) 305,000
37.50 ( 10 don ) 585,000

There would be some play, of course. For example, another store quoted me a 1 don pig at 72,000. Haggling will bring the prices down.

The pigs are actually quite beautiful - solid gold, they are the symbol of prosperity in this country. The bodies are brushed while the snouts are left gleaming.

Aurator - I must head to the field tommorrow morning early. Will be back sometime around dinner, local time. Please send me an email or leave a message at the hotel. Will arrange something.

cheers all,


Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 11:19
jtaher (re:sat. morning gun crowd) ID#249409:
Any thoughts-comments-links regarding the .303 British rifle
( they go real cheap locally - built to take rough handling )
Thanks in advance-

and go gold!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 11:15
grant (Philharmonics from the Motherland) ID#432221:

I' preparing for a trip to Austria in mid September, and am wondering about customs regs I'd have to deal with if I were to bring back less than $10K worth of Phillies.
I have not decided definately yet, it will depend on exchange rates at the time. Any advice/ info will be greatly appreciated.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 11:11
rhody (@ robnoel: Thanks for the URL. It shows that the POG has ) ID#411440:
gone UP 8% in Canadian dollars since its low in Jan. Bufford is
worried that some gold companies may go under because of the
extended low gold prices. This may be true for some American
producers. But South African, and Australian, and now Canadian
producers are seeing their costs of productions being driven lower
by the same currency instabilities that are keeping the POG
ever lower. I would not invest in American producers, but if
even half of the currencies devaluations are translatable into
cost savings, the non-US companies are in good shape to withstand
this mess. In buying gold, one is really betting that the USD will
decline. It will. The only question is when. We will know for
sure in the next 5 months. I'm betting that we will know by the
end of September.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 11:09
NateDogg (the best gold shares?) ID#392134:
I'm interested in picking up some gold shares for speculative purposes and want to narrow my choices. Does anyone have any ideas as to what the 3 or 4 best gold mining stocks are, i.e. which ones will perform the best when the price of gold rises to say $350?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:55
robnoel__A (rhody....Being in the US one cannot see golds role or its is a URL that is one of ) ID#411112:

the best posted at gives you
instant charts of world currencies based on
either Gold Silver or Platinum you could
spend a lot of time here as I do.....and
whoever posted this link a big thank-you

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:53
STUDIO.R (@T#1...whew! (studious.stupido.saving.on.shipping)) ID#288369:
check the T top out...coool.coincidence...ya'll kick it hard today! ( gulp ) ( puff )

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:49
Mike Sheller (tolerant 1) ID#347447:
I'm outta here.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:49
tolerant1 (STUDIO_R, Namaste') ID#373284:
The box has landed...I will get it in a little while...thanks in advance...

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:48
Mike Sheller (Bufford) ID#347447:
I don't know where you heard that theory, but it's confused. The business/market cycle is essentially Bonds/Stocks/Gold rising in that order. Bonds top first, then stox, then gold. At the last leg of the rising biz cycle, ALL 3 assets are rising together ( as in 1993 before rate rises in '94 dampened the party down ) . There is still room in this major secular cycle to see Bonds, Stocks, AND Gold rising together. This would presage a possibly higher high in stocks. UNLESS gold manipulation by government/central bank interference and collusion is masking what should be a rising market. But then silver and platinum would be clearly bulling as well. They are possibly in a new bull phase, early stage, but gold is definitely not, yet. I think there is still a possibility that this cycle will run further before inverting and that means the day may still be ahead when all assets are briefly rising together. Bonds will top first, then stocks, THEN gold will have its day.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:47
BUFFORD (and Peter Munk get off you're *Fagina) ID#253246:

I talked with someone in Toronto this week whose company does
work with Barrick and he told me Peter Munk use to sell stereo equipment and he bought his first stereo from Peter Munk. I could
only hope that he has to return to this type of work because he
hasn,t down anything lately for shareholders.

He tossed this millenium coin in the air in the spring, talked about
buying gold back from the CB's and hasn't done anything. Poor
George Bush born with a silver spoon in his mouth and Peter Munk
with a silver penus in his

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:47
jonesy (DID YOU KNOW . . .) ID#251166:
. . . It was on this day, August 15, 1971, that the U.S. officially went off the gold standard?

Twenty-seven years it's been, today -- eighteen of which we've seen a bear market ( a percentage approching some Fibonacci number? ) . Twenty-seven years the world economy has floated upon NO metalic standard. Unprecedented.

Yes, things are different now. Happy Anniversary, Goldbugs!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:43
chas (Guns) ID#147201:
Hey! y'all-- a 26 bbl 45/90 is good for penetraion and knock down. You just have to design the bullet right. A sawed off model 97 Winchester will give you a lot of options too.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:42
STUDIO.R (@T#1......) ID#288369:
you needz this box. go getz that box. let me know if someone else gotz dat box. studio.saluda.usted

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:42
tolerant1 (Mike Sheller, Namaste', this being the case, I now remind you it is 58 minutes till) ID#373284:
docking procedure at Cuervo Central...uh huh...

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:40
rhody (@ robnoel: I agree. I do however, have difficulty understanding) ID#411440:
the rationale of people selling gold into a market which has already
been depressed to 18 year lows, in the face of a debt/currency crisis.

I guess it all comes back to the USD. People selling gold to buy
dollars which are already 18% overvalued ( minimum value ) can only
be explained by the purchaser's belief that the dollar will go to
20 to 30% overvalued. This by itself will collapse the US economy.
I repeat, too much of a good thing can be lethal.

We seem to be in a race towards two finish lines;

1 ) stagflation caused by FRB lowering interest rates in the US to
stave off a world depression.

2 ) depression caused by the FRB keeping rates high, and collapsing
Asia's economies.

The former is better than the latter, but the former cannot be done
until the American equity bubble deflates. So the question arises
will the bubble deflate before, or after Asia is driven into a

I think Greenspan will prick the bubble after the November elections
and then inflate ( lower interest rates ) as fast as he can.
Clinton may prick the bubble on Monday, or Star's submission to
Congress on the 21st may do it.

The durability of the American equities bubble is driving the world
into depression. But the PPT is providing the durability.

So, Bill clinton is driving the world into depression, merely to
assure 4 more years of the same kind of economic management that
got us into this mess in the first place!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:40
Mike Sheller (tolerant 1) ID#347447:
Having to use my own brain is cruel and unusual punishment, my friend, unusually cruel.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:39
BUFFORD (The theory that PM stocks go up when dow goes down**Bullshit) ID#253246:

Another blistering week of losses in my PM stock portfolio this week.
After being even the second week of April the value of $78K of PM
stocks is now worth $36K thats a %54. If there is a market crash
this PM protection will be wiorth zero. Whenever somebody calls
PM stocks insurance in a down market I tell them they don't know
what therir talking about.

Some these companies ( SSRIF, CAU, TVX maybe even VENGF ) will
be bankrupt by this time next year without a rise in gold & silver prices.
Gold Mutual funds are even bigger losers. A $10K purchase of BEGIX
in 2/96 is now worth $3.7k. CASH is king right now and if gold does
not go over $300 by Pearl Harbor there will be massive tax loss selling
this year even bigger than last year.

Barrick knows cash is king or they would already bought some of these
ailing gold companies, they know the price of gold is going lower and
they will be able to buy at even lower prices.

Buy Power Ball, go to LAS VENUS, you'll have a better time.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:38
Mike Sheller (Gianni Dioro) ID#347447:
Many Thanks for the Civil War gold market prices. Comes in very handy for a current project.
I guess one could say gold is now at 134 year support!? ( ;- )

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:38
tolerant1 (STUDIO_R, Mike Sheller, Namaste' no box, but I have not checked the post box in) ID#373284:
a few days...MS, yes, yes its true, painfull, but true...actual reality, by gum, just think of it, people actually having to use THEIR brains, uh huh...

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:36
DBog (Looking for Opinions) ID#267298:

IF Starr proves beyond all reasonable doubt that Slick committed
PERJURY, can he remain in office ?

What do you think will be the majority reaction of the following:

The Media

The American Public

Fellow Democrats

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:34
Max_Moseley (@The Skeptical Investor) ID#270221:
Steve in TO: Your 8.20 Soon it may be that there will be no rigged markets anywhere. At least the Canadian governement hasn't gotten into the stock market manipulation game. They have, though indirectly. The 20% maximum foreign content rule in retirement savings plans, pension plans etc. is intended to artificially direct savings into the Canadian markets - considering the much higher returns that can almost always be had from foreign investments this is an unambiguous case of market manipulation. Cheers, Max

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:31
Leland (California is Beginning to Feel Business Slowdowns - From L.A. TIMES) ID#316193:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:29
Mike Sheller (tolerant 1) ID#347447:
No, not ACTUAL reality!!!!!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:28
STUDIO.R (@T#1.....) ID#288369:
did you ever receive the cool box I sent ya? regular mail......probably heisted by a postal dud. hope not. happiness today. G&P to YA!!!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:26
tolerant1 (It just keeps getting better...actual reality...uh huh...) ID#373284:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:21
tolerant1 (its all just a glitch...right...) ID#373284:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:12
tolerant1 (to the fin that shares, Namaste' I believe the term you were looking for in your post ) ID#373284:
of 9:15 relative to cyberspace, etc. We have virtual reality, which is about to collapse via Y2K, leaving people in the world of actual reality. It is my contention that severe dementia will afflict 100s of millions around the globe adding to the millennial madness. Add the drunken spree the evening before on the soon to be infamous tick of the clock and think of the look of stupefaction on the faces of the revelers as they face an actual reality which makes the word stark leap to mind. In less than a millisecond they will leave the make believe dimension of virtual reality and be thrust into the ( for them ) painfully humbling world of actual reality.

Needless to say this will create an atmosphere of dislocation. Given the talk of family values mixed with the rhetoric of the politicians, and all others that use this catch phrase to plant seeds in the fields that are the minds of the masses from whom they seek money more than anything else, what they have not been able to accomplish will occur in one over arching global manifestation of actual reality. Things as it were will come directly home as they have to fend for their families, with the assistance of their neighbors. Centralized anything will find nothing but disgust as giant systems are crushed. Think locally, act locally will permeate their thoughts and guide their actions.

Actual reality…uh huh…

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:11
robnoel__A ( matter which way you cut it....the people will have the final say so...and if as we all ) ID#411112:

think the global economy takes a dump...the
people of Switzerland will never agree to
sell....just my 2c

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:05
Silverbear (Al Gore) ID#290408:
Assume that Bill Clinton lies again on Monday and says he did not have
a sexual relationship with Monica. Then assume that Starr drops the DNA bomb and Clinton still denies everything. Now assume that Congress does nothing. Can you imagine the questions that Al Gore
will have to face during the next election?

So tell us Al, do you believe Clinton told the truth?

If he says yes, his credibility is 100% shot.

If he says no, then the next question is So when did you realize the
president was lying?

Followed by:

Since you think the President lied to you, what effect will this have on any possible pardon?.

Personally I think the best way out for Clinton is to admit to a non-sexual relationship.

Press: Mr. President! How did this non-sexual relationship begin!

Clinton: Well, I had to go really bad but I really busy doing the peoples work, when Monica said Let me take care of that! It seemed a little strange at first, but you know it's a common practice in some parts of Asia, so I just said what the hell and let it flow!. It was totally non-sexual of course...

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 10:05
rhody (@ robnoel: 2. Switzerland can't sell its gold because of its) ID#411440:
constitutional requirement of a referendum to do so.

I had heard of this. It has been posted here many times.

The real question is, why does the Swiss CB WANT to sell its gold?

The simple answer is that it makes the Swiss Franc so expensive,
Swiss exporters have difficulty competing on the world market.
Too much of a good thing can be lethal.

Question is, is there something else operating here, like pressure
from the Americans?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 09:48
Leland (Prudent Bear's Usual Fine Market Summary (Linked From Fiend's SuperBear Page)) ID#316193:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 09:42
robnoel__A (rhody...Switzerland cannot sell its gold reserves unless its people say so in a referendum...its ) ID#411112:

gold holdings are in its
NGO group made a recommendation about a year
ago and this story resurfaces every time gold
trys to climb higher

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 09:22
Gollum (@JTF ) ID#43349:
Debt collapse is a funny kind of animal.

There are a certain number of dollars in circulation at any given time. Some are in bank accounts available to be loaned out. Some are out there distributed in the economy.

The more a bank loans out, the less it has available to be loaned out.

If a debtor should default, it has little impact on the money in circulation. The money is still out there, it's just not coming back to the bank anytime soon ( apparantly it's no longer in the debtors pockets either ) .

The more that reserves build up in the bank without being used in the economy ( less velocity ) the less inflation there tends to be and vica versa.

The banks cna be more or less conservative in their policies due to the fractional reserve banking system and to a certain extent control inflation/deflation rates.

If the money doesn't get back to the banks, they lose control.

What happens then?

Sometimes banking collapse leads to inflation, sometimes to deflation.

It depends on who is left pulling the reins.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 09:15
sharefin (Email chatter) ID#284255:
Exploring my 500 Day Millennium Split

Leslie Goldman

Received some good news in the mail yesterday
that made me jump for joy.
Cars before 1973 no longer need to
have smog test inspections.
I have a 1968 VW van, an original
Hippy car, yet everytime I attempt
to pass smog in recent years
I have faced the discomfort of having
my vehicle fail. Then I go through
every conceivable pretzel manuever
to get it to pass.

My joy lasted about two minutes after reading the good news from DMV.
I started to think about Y2K.
By fall 1999, from the daily reports
I read, not passing smog will
be the least of my concerns.

In the community houshold where I live,
we are facing more problems now
than can be solved in the remaining days
before potential calamities
becoming realities.

As the world looks to
500 days to go,
I am living in two worlds.

One world fills my mind
with daily reports from around the world
about Y2K,
but when I turn off my computer
my life is filled with another set
of issues quite outside
the realm that now
is merely in cyberspace.

There ought to be a name given
this kind of dilemma; I am not sure
what to call it.

Someplace deep down I find
myself praying that we each have
more time to learn, to correct our ways.

Surgeons take cripples
and restore their ability to walk.
They remove tumors
that would curtail existence here.

Modern medicine
gives us heroic measures,
yet only some supernatural
intervention will forestall
what appears inevitable.

I am banking on doing all I can
the next 500 days
to write a book
called Plant your Dream
and get my message out.

I want to do all I can to do my part.
to reinvite everyone I know
to rediscover Nature's Original Technology
that begins with Seeds.
I sense that if we are secure with
basic natural living skills,
we will be o.k. no matter what.

I am not enjoying feeling privy
to a reality that our country
is presently in a national state
of emergency, but few know this.
But then for more than 20 years
I have recognized that we were
in such a state. The difference
is that now this state seems
more eminent and near to touching my life,
to come knocking at the door.
Most who hear begin by thinking,
go away, don't tell me this,
I already have more than I can handle.
Perhaps we will soon have different
things to handle.

Is this a disease?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 08:57
STUDIO.R (@I take great comfort in the fact that........) ID#288369:
I am not what I used to be, nor am I what I shall be. off@guitarous.sphere g'dayO! to all.........

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 08:42
STUDIO.R (@the canons of studious........) ID#288369:
And the sheepelo will be led by their dick-for-brains shepherd through the valley of concaineous grasses. And this will be bad. The crazed sheepelo will savagely eat their master. And this will be good.
There will be 1.618 days of only night. And it will probably not rain much.

studious.seeing through cockeyes dimly. ;^ ) ~


Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 08:37
Suspicious (Rhody / IMHO the Swiss haven't sold gold because) ID#287312:
Da Aint Stupid

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 08:35
STUDIO.R (@mOzel.......) ID#288369:
yes, the little aeroplane is quite cute in blue/black ink. I suppose the boys thirst to know to what destination it doth fly....most o' mine will ultimately wind up in a bar in manhattan...along with my brains.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 08:31
JTF (Bearish news from Switzerland about the Swiss Frank?) ID#57232:
Gianni Dioro: As someone on this site once said, it is hard to be sympathetic of the Swiss plight -- they are at risk for being one of the world's strongest currencies again, once the US economy/dollar falters. They are awash in gold. Had the same problem in the 70's -- except then it was probably much worse. They inflated the Swiss franc, and regretted it later. Right now the US dollar is still quite strong, so they are not entirely left out in the cold.
My guess is that they are quietly trying to get their businesses diversified as much as they can so that any manufacturing they do is in countries where the cost of labor is cheaper. They are just buying for time.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 08:21
JTF (International Treasurer -- banker derivatives advice) ID#57232:
Donald, All: Here is an interesting journal that I would guess large multinationals, and big bankers are likely to read. Anything derivatives wise that spills into this journal is likely to be mainstream news among this select group.
All: Please note the concern about US investment risk in South America, and the bullish comments about the EU. Germany and the UK are described in a recent article as the key growth markets. Now, we know that the UK is very worried about recession, so one support leg for the European community is weakening considerably. That leaves Germany. Now -- just how much do they have in Russia -- and just how worried are they regarding to being fairly close geographically to Russia?

One last item. What we all must remember is that derivatives trades are not as open for all the world to see as the equities markets. When the stock market falls, we worry about the economy going with it. But -- if there are massive derivatives losses, we may not know the magnitude of the losses for some time to come -- months, at least. And -- for a time I'm sure creative juggling by the multinationals and international banks can keep derivatives losses secret for years.
That's what worries me -- speculative derivatives losses are more likely to creep up unawares on the international community than equity market losses. Most of it is OTC.
Another item that concerns me is that debt of over $1 Trillion US disappeared near October 1997 in the SEAsian collapse. That debt needs to be rolled over, or written off. Likewise the $600 billion SOES related debt in China, and the debt to be from South America. Any one have a guess about what will happen next? My guess is that if this debt is not rolled over into a package that taxpayers all over the world end up paying for in the future, we are at risk for a financial collapse fairly soon.
I think the bottom line is that inflation is connected with debt deferral, and deflation is connected with debt collapse when the deferrals and rollovers are pushed beyond the breaking point. From my experience with catastrophic failure theory, and nonlinear mechanical systems, we will not know when the debt collapse will happen until it happens. We just need to be on our toes, because it will not be completely without warning. Sure is hard to make money in precious metals when you know that inflation drives them up, but sudden equities market collapse ( and debt collapse ) drives them down. Easy these days to get whipsawed in the turbulence. Sure is temping to sit on the sidelines with cash ( or? ) and wait for the debt collapse to come. After the collapse, anyone will be able to make money in precious metals investment.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 08:20
Steve in TO__A (Sharefin - Thank you for your post on . . .) ID#287337:
Hong Kong stock market intervention. So I see the Hong Kongers have gotten into the PPT game. This is a sign of the end for Hong Kong. If I were living or invested there I would get out right away.

Soon it may be that there will be no rigged markets anywhere. At least the Canadian governement hasn't gotten into the stock market manipulation game.

- Steve

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 08:19
Selby () ID#286230:
A debt crisis in emerging countries is about to strike, and with it comes
heightened fears of a global recession

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 08:02
sharefin (Of interest perhaps -- Alvin Toffler quote) ID#284255:
Alvin Toffler writing in Powershift, printed 1991, quote from page 17...

The advanced economy could not run for thirty seconds without computers
.... Seems like Toffler was closer than even he thought -- I wonder what
his insights would be now? Perhaps y'all have some to add?

Some of you guys have not heard of Alvin Toffler. The rest of you can skip
this paragraph.

Alvin and Heidi Toffler wrote three books, each 10 years apart. The first,
Future Shock, printed in the early 70s, recognized that the economies would
be increasingly driven by knowledge. The second, Third Wave, was banned in
some countries for extrapolating collapse of some social systems because of
the new information economy. The third, Powershift, I've not yet finished
but is subtitled Knowledge, Wealth and Violence at the edge of the 21st
Century. Toffler is definitely a 5 on the future of the Nation State and
the rise of the knowledge worker ( sovind ) . Davidson/ Rees-Mogg wrote similar
books, as has Negroponte ( Wired backpages ) , Rifken ( The End Of Work -- ( what
shall we do with all the unemployed? ) ) and Lasch ( Revolt of the Elites --
( it is treason to abandon the nation state! ) ) .

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 07:58
vronsky (ROMAN POET VIRGIL) ID#427357:

Auri Sacra Fames means The cursed thirst for GOLD!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 07:53
vronsky () ID#427357:
Auri Sacra Fames -- Virgil

Ref Gianni Dioro__A ( The True Price of Gold )

Down through the ages preciously few men knew the real price of GOLD.
The Roman poet of antiquity was one of the few. He is reported to have said: Auri Sacra Fames.

Another person who knew the real value of GOLD expressed it in a more mundane fashion: Baron von Rothschild, creator of one of the most famous financial dynasties of modern times, was once heard to have said that: He only knows of two men who really understand the true value of gold - an obscure clerk in the basement vault of the Banque de Paris, and one of the directors of the Bank of England. Unfortunately, they disagree!

For an encyclopedic description of how men have valued gold down through the Ages, you might find very interesting the essay HISTORY OF GOLD - which may be found at the following URL - oh, it's necessary to delete the extra letters en in the word golden of the URL before posting it to the Internet:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 07:52
sharefin (Hong Kong - Critics blast intervention ) ID#284255:
Resplice the url.

The Government's heavy intervention in stock and derivative markets yesterday was met with broad criticism by analysts who said it was a short-term measure which would not arrest the market's decline or dissuade speculation.

Brokers estimated the Government had spent between $2 billion and $3 billion out of a total turnover of $8.54 billion - the highest level for two months - as they ploughed into the equities, futures and options markets.

The Hang Seng Index soared 8.47 per cent to close at 7,224.69 in its biggest gain in six months.

The Hang Seng London Reference Index closed up only 3.98 points to 7,228.67, amid heavy two-way trade, dealers said.

[The intervention] smacks of Japanese-style management, the head of sales at a US bank in London said.

HSBC Holdings chief economist Jan Lee said the intervention was cosmetic.

It's meant to distract attention from the fundamentals. You can't say that they have changed, he said.

Santander Investment head economist for North Asia Mark Mcfarland said the buying sent a confused signal.

Hong Kong is supposed to have a currency-board system which is supposed to guarantee non-intervention. They have completely fouled up the mechanism that is supposed to protect Hong Kong's economy, he said.

Another economist said: What the Government is telling the world is that if you are a long-term investor, don't buy Hong Kong stocks. They are saying the market is a battlefield between the government and hedge funds.

However, Real Estate Developers Association chairman Lo Ka-shui expressed support for the action, saying it was the Government's duty to maintain market stability.

It is an attempt to drive away the speculators. It is nothing against the free-market principles of Hong Kong.

Brokers said hedge funds had not suffered significantly yesterday with a comparatively small number covering short positions.

The gains just give the speculators the opportunity to get new shorts on at higher levels, ING Barings head of sales James Osborn said.

Speculators have made so much cash in the past couple of weeks that what the government did today is irrelevant.

The intervention could have been timed to deter a new speculative attack on the Hong Kong dollar over the long weekend, brokers said.

Celestial Asia Securities director Josephine Hui Suet-ming said the Government would need to sustain the market until the end of the month's expiry of the August futures contract if it wanted to hurt speculators.

Brokers forecast a fall when trading resumes on Tuesday, particularly if conditions in Russian and Japanese markets deteriorate.

The buying was against a backdrop of a stronger yen and news China Telecom would be able to decrease the size of its public float to 18 per cent.

Futures traders estimated that the Government could have spent up to $200 million buying up to 10,000 August futures contracts.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 07:43
rhody (@ Suspicious: re. Swiss gold ) ID#411440:
questi;on arises, if they have all this extra gold, why have they
not sold it? They are very negative on gold, and keep threatening
to sell it. This does not compute, hence, there is something going on
behind the scenes which we can only speculate about.

Any speculation? Let me try the first one:

1. They have not sold gold because they know that the price is at
a generation low, driven by a totally artificial exchange rate
on the U. S. dollar.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 07:26
Suspicious (Gianni Dioro_A It is my understanding that) ID#287312:
there is no actual link or gold backing to the Swiss Franc. Their
constitution requires X amount of gold to be held by the CB for every Franc in circulation. To change this requirement would take a vote of the public. No way Jose. However they have more gold than is required and can sell a considerable amount and remain within the their law.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 06:47
jims (Quick look at the weekly charts - hard to be bullish) ID#252391:
Silver looks like it wants to break down to $4.75 minimum. Plat is a breath away from falling through support at 370 with 345 the next real stop. PD is weak. The dollar index is just shy of a new closing high, the bonds made new all time highs. Stock indexes look like they are having just a little digestion problem in massive uptrends.

Weakness to all time lows or there abouts on the XAU further confirms all bear trends are in place with regards to the metals; breakdowns of recent support zones and critical lows such as gold's $280 are at hand.

Oil's rally won't extend past $14. Oil service sector stocks to go lower, yet.

Its a bear across the board with the exception of the dollar and bonds.

Major breakdowns in Silver, Gold, Platinum, Palladium look eminent. A run at 150 yen to the dollar will probably be the trigger along with fears of more commodity dumping from Russia weighing on the market.

A close above $5.25 silver would be the first signal that this bearish perspective has been voided - until then it's GOING DOWN.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 06:38
Gianni Dioro__A (@all, Swiss Gold-Link) ID#384350:
In light of nervousness surrounding banks in regard to the Y2K problem, how would a bank run in Switzerland affect its Gold peg to the Swiss Franc, and is this the underlying reason of the talk to de-link gold from the Swiss Franc?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 06:30
Gianni Dioro__A (The True Price of Gold) ID#384350:
It says here in War Cycles - Peace Cycles by Richard K. Hoskins, that the true price of gold during and shortly after the American War between the states was far higher than what is generally acknowledged. He says that gold was so scarce during these times, and the outcome of the War uncertain that the true market price was altogether different than the official price quoted by the Govt. He found in The New York Stock Exchange by Francis Eames, on p. 120 the following:

Highest and Lowest prices of Gold
Year High Low
1862 $134 -
1863 $173.50 $151.50
1864 $287 $151.50
1865 $233.75 $128.625
1866 $167.75 $125
1867 $145.625 $232 ( sic )
1868 $150 $133.25

Quite different than govt statistics will tell you. I wonder if this changes Elliott Wave analysis and above all we might be able to say that the price of gold today is trading at the same level as it did 134 years ago.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 04:35
Jung (nikkei, wave 5 ?) ID#237164:
Don't know much about waves, and all that, but look at the
three year Nikkei average^N225&d=2y
and one can almost imagine waves as follows:

leg ............ Date and value ............. change

........ October, 1996 at 21,000
.... 1 .................................... ( change of -3,500 )
........ Jan, 1997 at 17,500
.... 2 .................................... ( change of +3,000 )
........ Jul, 1997 at 20,500
.... 3 .................................... ( change of -5,700 )
....... Jan, 1998 at 14,750
.... 4 .................................... ( change of +3,500 )
...... Jul, 1998 at 17,250
.... 5 ................................. ( if as large as leg 1: -3,500 )
....... ( sometime in the future at 13,750 )

If leg 5 is at least as large as leg 3 then, wave 5 ends at 11,550, sometime in the future.

Who knows about elliot waves and can finish the pattern for the down leg?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 04:32
John Disney__A (You are smart ..) ID#24135:
Bloops ..
Brother Oris is right .. Your
only problem is you dont understand
MIGS ( and a few other things )

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 04:10
Stilgar (I apologise for blowing out the margins) ID#290306:
with that last post

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 04:09
Stilgar (Jung) ID#290306:
This is a multi-engine search - I can't say if it holds anything of value

Let me know if it works

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 04:06
Leland (The Big Black Hole Keeps Getting Bigger and Deeper Every Day - More on Russia) ID#316193:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 03:54
Jung (BankAmerica and NationsBank) ID#237164:
Does anyone know what BankAmerica and NationsBank exposure to Asia and
Mexico is?

Also, some months ago, in Newsweek or Time there was a chart of large
banks and their exposure to derivatives, which I recall as being in
the trillions of dollars, far exceeding their net worth. Does anyone
recall the article? Does anyone have the numbers?


Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 03:45
Stilgar (Golden Ballistics is it?) ID#290306:
Neck shots at 300m

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 03:21
mozel (@FT) ID#153102:
Is it my imagination or is a certain odor of desperation emanating from the pages of the FT ? The Brits are mired in the new continental bureauracy, I think. And having minimal effect on events and policies, while the day draws ever nearer when they must fish or cut bait.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 03:10
mozel (@FT Article) ID#153102:
What would this proposal achieve other than G7 mercantilism by currency exchange mechanisms. Geesh.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 03:04
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Later all.....

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:59
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Anybody got any info on shotgun 'flung' fleshettes ( sp ) ?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:55
ravenfire ( singlion (re: Singapore)) ID#333126:
nice to hear from a concerned investor from s'pore. I was in S'pore for 6 years not too long ago ( 6 years culminating in '94 in RJC )

As I remember, the last shock in the markets late last year caused COE prices in the Open ( or luxury? ) category to drop to $50 ( from $20,000 or so... )

perhaps this time when the devaluations come to stead again, we shall see a repeat of COE price drops, yes? I've started telling my old friends to start bidding for $100 COEs...

How is the mood over in S'pore over the 10 year low in the stock market index? How upbeat/downbeat has the local business environment become lately?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:52
James (Ole49r@Whoever asked what 49r means. 1849 was the year that the big gold rush started) ID#252150:
in CA., & the miners became known as 49rs. The Lady who posts under Ole 49r actually placer mines part time. She is probably the smartest individual that I have come across in my 2 years of surfing investment sites. She forecasted sub 300 POG & possibly 250, when it was around 370 & gave very good reasons.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:52
Junior (Russia Watchers from Outside of the Square - Interesting Thoughts) ID#248180:

SATURDAY AUGUST 15 1998  Financial Times London
 Personal View  

DAVID HALE: Russia and the dollar down under
Commodity-dependent countries would do well to target the Australian, rather than the US, dollar
The International Monetary Fund has intervened to stabilise the rouble through an emergency lending programme large enough to satisfy Russia's external creditors. But the Fund has left unresolved the larger question of whether Russia should anchor its currency to the US dollar.

Many countries use exchange rate targets as monetary policy anchors. But, in the case of Russia, it is questionable whether the US dollar is the best target.

The US is a superpower with leading high-technology industries and a booming equity market. Its dollar enjoys reserve currency status. Consequently, the US can finance currency account deficits by selling securities to foreign private investors when equity prices are buoyant and to foreign central banks when private investors pull out.

Russia, by contrast, is a transition economy heavily dependent on exports of oil, gold and other raw materials. Heavy pressure on the rouble this year came in part because falling oil prices were about to create Russia's first current account deficit since the end of communism. This, though not large in dollar terms, is a financial challenge for a country ordinarily subject to capital flight .

For these reasons, it would make far more sense for Russia to forge an exchange rate link with a sound currency not insensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices. Such a currency is the Australian dollar. Other commodity-dependent countries should consider the same.

Most people would be startled at the suggestion that Russia, or any other country, should develop a monetary link to Australia, a sunburnt country better known for its kangaroos and other exotic fauna and flora than for financial gnomes and monetary wisdom.

But Australia derives about three-quarters of its export income from gold, wool, iron ore and other commodities. Its central bank aims to minimise inflation but cannot eliminate exchange-rate volatility because the trade account and stock market fluctuate in response to global commodity prices.

The dollar from down under has emerged as one of the best indicators of global inflation expectations. When the world economy is robust and commodity prices are rising, it rallies sharply against almost all currencies. When the world economy softens and commodity prices tumble, it is not far behind.

It is thus emerging as an indispensable tool for forecasting US monetary policy. While the Federal Reserve does not explicitly target the Australian dollar, the past decade's big changes in US monetary policy have been preceded by fluctuations in the Australian dollar.

Its 1986 collapse set the stage for US monetary easing, while its sharp rally in the late 1980s did the reverse. The same pattern was seen when it entered a prolonged slump followed by a rally, along with commodity prices, in 1994.

The only time when a large drop in the Australian dollar has not triggered US monetary easing has been in 1998. The Federal Reserve has been so concerned about asset inflation on Wall Street that it has not responded to the decline in commodity prices by easing monetary policy. If the US economy slows enough to reduce corporate profits and damp the irrational exuberance on Wall Street, the Fed could well ease in order to restrain global deflationary forces.

If, this year, Russia had linked the rouble to the Australian, rather than US, dollar, monetary policy would have coped more easily with falling commodity prices. Instead of trying to keep up with America's high technology reserve currency, Moscow would have had a monetary link to a country with a responsible central bank struggling to maintain low inflation in the face of balance of payments constraints not dissimilar to its own. The rouble would have seen a moderate correction in line with Australia's dollar but not the threat of a complete loss of credibility.

Other developing countries should take note. Argentina has a currency board link to the US dollar, while Chile and Brazil have exchange rate targets for the US dollar. These make it difficult for them to adjust to fluctuations in commodity prices or the impact of a Wall Street boom on global portfolio investors' dollar demand. It would make more sense for Latin America, South Africa and other commodity producers to have currency boards pegged to the Australian dollar.

If it emerged as the de facto anchor for a southern hemisphere currency zone, the Australian dollar could even play a more explicit role in guiding the monetary policy of the US and Europe. Alan Greenspan has long referred to the gold price as a proxy for inflation expectations but the gold market is so distorted by central bank selling that it would make more sense to use the Australian dollar.

The European Central Bank will also need to use price targets as a policy guide until it can establish credible monetary aggregates.

The French would resent using the US dollar as a policy target. Thus, the ECB would satisfy markets and French alike by acknowledging it was, instead, informally targeting the currency of Australia.

Its emergence as an anchor for global price stability would certainly create protocol problems at meetings of the IMF, the Bank of International Settlements and other multilateral economic institutions. Instead of swooning over central bankers from the Group of Seven leading industrial countries, the world's financial journalists would besiege Australia's central bank governor for quotes. The BIS would have to let the Australians join meetings of the Group of Ten central bankers, not make them wait in the lobby.

And once Mr Greenspan admitted he was using the Australian dollar as an indicator, US cartoonists would start to depict him as a cerebral Crocodile Dundee and his congressional critics as reptiles trying to devour him. That would be OK too.

The author is chief economist at the Zurich Group

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:48
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
mozel -- And NONE of it answers how one can deal with it outside of the home!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:46
mozel (@Eldorado) ID#153102:
Somehow punks and jackboots and vests seem like a natural combination.
Still need ammo to penetrate vests. Mo Powah is too much of mo to qualify for simple prize.
I liked Skip's story a lot.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:43
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
sharefin -- Cut in rates coming? Hell yes, given this deflationary environment! Especially given all the 'liquidity' pouring into 'safety'. HAR! Our real rates have been too high for too long. Now the fat is in the fire, not that I do not believe for one moment that it has been done for the NWO and the supplanting of national sovereignties. The sooner countries break off of the dollar 'tit' and back to gold, the sooner they'll be better off. Of course, that is not yet in the cards. But it will have to be at some point, or some more real variation of same.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:33
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
mozel -- There is no real and immediate answer to the current problems. Perhaps 'real' is not the appropriate word to use in this frame, 'cause we DO know what the answers must and ultimately be. But in THIS current time frame, a certain 'reality' does exist. Part of that more than likely means shot-shell and bullets. Also stored food stuff and probably electrical generating capability. A stash of metals might be helpful at some time. NONE of the above is ANY guarantee from a jack-boot type entry upon your privacy anymore than from a gang of punks out to do harm and robbery. To be armed is the second line of defense; the first being your door. The caliber of your weaponry can only be limited by what is available and what you feel will be adequate. Punks with vests? Wouldn't anymore stretch my mind in seeing that. I say that if 'nails' need be pounded, then POUND them! Get the job done as efficiently as possible so that you can move on to more of the job or duties as they are.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:32
mozel (@Cut In Rates = No More Gold Carry. Oops.) ID#153102:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:32
Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug (Armstrong Con't From www. ID#432214:
Armstrong states There has never been a bull market that is not followed by a correction. We do not see the end of the world - merely a correction that might be 2 years in duration if government gets its act together

Now mix in some Y2K, a pinch of Russia, a dash of Japan, and hand full of currency devaluations.

Got Gold

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:28
sharefin (Email chatter) ID#284255:
Just listened to Ralph Acompora on WSW. He is now bearish. He said
Monday was the first time he saw the large cap stocks under pressure.
Between now and October there will be a sell off in the dow. 15-20% and I think he said to 7400 approx.

Cappiello was on and said cut in rates coming.

Also was said that volatility for next few weeks till proscecuter's report
if filed ( Clinton )

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:20
blooper (NEGATIVE POSTERS) ID#207145:
Are dead wrong. Until October. Post October it'S right back up. New high. Then a bear to scare all bears.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:19
Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug (Armstrong's new stock market forcast --Mid 6000 on the DJIA) ID#432214:
Oh my, I don't like his silver predictions but long live my Royal Bank PUTS....

Go Gold

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:18
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
mozel -- I can 'presume' that teflon tipped bullets would aid in penetration, but I personally would have no idea in how to go about it. Seems to me that 'mo-power' is a simpler answer. I use the 'KISS' philosophy at this time.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:18
mozel (@Eldorado) ID#153102:
Punks can't get vests ?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:17

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:16
Grizz (Eldorado - SAND) ID#424394:
Preferably packed well and tight.
Leaving nothing but the butt and legs sticking up.
That way NOTHING bothers those who have their heads so buried.

On that note - I too must hit the rack.

I hope we didn't run Promey off with all this gun talk.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:15
blooper (BIG strong RALLY COMING. You heard it here first) ID#207145:
Then a dive in October. But it still isn't over. Ever heard that the stock market predicted 4 of the last two recessions?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:13
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Rack -- Your shooting skills sound quite impressive!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:12
blooper (TTThe market has everyone fooled) ID#207145:
We are all too negative. Soon, you will see what I mean. Even gold stocks.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:10
Rack (Eldorado) ID#402131:
My post was not clear. NO standard vest will stop ANY centerfire rifle
bullet. Ceramic armor will stop a lot of it.
Griz-I reload don't you? Ammo is cheaper by far. Just have to buy components in bulk and I can reload .357 125gr HP. for $3.50 a box of 50 rounds. rifle you may as well buy unless you use premium bullets.
I use nosler 150gr balistic tip in .30 cal. My two best shot were one
at 450 yards in a 35 MPH wind. and One at 750 yards ( no wind and I had 10 minutes to set it up. 750 is too far to shoot but the wife wanted to sleep in the next day.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:10
blooper (Oris) ID#207145:
The Russian A man.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:09
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Anybody know of ANY armor that covers face/head?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:09
blooper (Oris) ID#207145:
Mabe you could get one of those outfits for ypur own.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:06
oris (Grizz & Eldorado) ID#238422:
Lat post for tonight, just could not resist it.

I know for sure that Russian anti-terrorist unit Alpha
is using vests reinforced with titanium plates, and also
they got titanium helmets. 7.62x39 steel core will not
penetrate this outfit even at point blank range. 3 years
ago developers of this equipment were demonstrating it
at the show of Russian Indusry in Washington, D.C. I was
there to meet old buddies and had a chance to look at
this vest. Of course, it was not light,
but not really heavy, but I liked helmet most of all -
it was state of art thing, with build-in radio and everything

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:05
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Grizz -- You and your 'short list' just plain and simply CRACK ME UP!!! HAR!!!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:04
Skip (A joke to lighten the mood...) ID#287129:
I heard a joke today, and decided to post it here to lighten an otherwise heavy mood that many of us might feel right now...

A burly-looking man was eating a meal at the Golden Meal Truckstop, when a couple of bikers came storming in demanding that he buy them dinner or pay the consequences.

He ignored them; and without even making eye contact, he took a sip of his beer. The first biker then spit in the beer. He said nothing; and instead, ate one of his french fries. The other biker then spit on his plate and said, Now, what are you going to do about it? The man still remained silent while getting up and walking out, leaving his meal for the bikers to finish.

Several minutes later one of the bikers said to the waitress, He wasn't much of a man, was he?

The waitress replied, Well, I don't know about that; but he certainly isn't much of a trucker. Did you see the way he crushed those motorbikes with his semi?

The man simply stood up and started walking towards the door, leaving his meal for the two bikers to finish.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:02
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
mozel -- You also have to wonder how 'vulnerable' you are away from home; grocery store, work, movie, vacation, or anything. If they want you, odds a better than even that they can get you with your 'pants down', so to speak. Shoot, perhaps you are on the phone at home when a half dozen windows and doors come crashing in. And it might not even be those in vests, but punks out to get you!!!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 02:01
Rack (Eldorado-vests) ID#402131:
There are several kinds of vests. A flack vest is OK for scrapnel ( grenade or out of the money morter round ) Two of them on top of each other will stop .45 ammo. I have a friend that watched the marines do it for kicks in Nam. Then a standard vest-they are good for .357 .44 mag and 9mm for a 2A threat level vest. The body armor that will stop ANY center fire rifle is ceramic. They weight a ton!!!!!!
If I had to pick three guns they would a pump 12 ga. with buckshot. A 30-06 scoped and magazine fed. And last but best a .45 Government. Magazine fed guns are easy to reload in the dark. try it once when in the dark. Then try a wheel gun.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:59
Grizz (MO POWER? Good Gosh!) ID#424394:
That 480-grain slug at 1600 fps may not penetrate
but it will certainly knock 'em for a loop!

I saw some 30-06 steel-core ammo piercing in Shotgun News.

Though they may not be finished with the design.
Where could I get one of those vests?

Rack: thanks for the info - #4 Buck seems a good choice.
Maybe I ought to subscribe to Guns & Ammo too.

I am on enough subscription lists that my dossier has me pegged
to be on the short list if FEMA and RENO come through here.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:56
mozel (@Eldorado) ID#153102:
I wonder what a little teflon dip would do. The idea of bad guys in vests getting clean away just bothers me.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:54
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Mozel -- Apparently, you'll need something more powerful than 30-06 in the nearer term. 300 Winmag pehaps. 50 cal. Hell, who knows!!!! Anything ought to blow them well off their feet though. And do they wear their vest over their face? Not likely. They'll still have to fear the simple shotgun blast!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:49
mozel (@Eldorado) ID#153102:
I'm saying I want my ammo to go through vests.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:48
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Grizz -- You haven't heard that they are developing vests that can withstand 30-06? Man, you need MO-POWER!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:46
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
oris -- Pleasant dreams.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:46
Grizz (Mozel - that's why I opted for 240-grain 44 magnum) ID#424394:
The Most Powerful Handgun in the World

But 7.62x39 steel core will do the job. So will 30-06.
Not many, if any, vests can stand up to full rifle ammo.

Now where were we? Oh yes. 22LR for small change.
30 caliber rifle ammo for larger denominations.
And Gold Bullets for special occasions and deserving VIPs.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:45
oris (Eldorado) ID#238422:
I intend to agree with you now.
Good night.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:45
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
mozel -- are you saying that the guy up the road would have maybe been more 'equal' utilizing a 300 Winmag or such? Or at least something other than a handgun?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:40
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Grizz -- don't use copper solid sabots in a non-rifled barrel. Very poor ballistics because of no spin. Better to use regular slugs in a non-rifled barrel. In the case of a vest, I would imagine it would make a hole of sorts in the person behind it even if it didn't go through. I don't even want to think about it!!!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:38
Squirrel (Oris & Mozel) ID#280214:
You guys are just trying to brew up a small acetylene torch for a tad of welding on Gold, Silver and Platinum jewelry. Right? That's what I thought.

Promey - you are quite correct. But do we have that much time?
We have to get them to mint the coins before Y2K.
I guess we don't have a chance on that end.
When you want a job done and done right - privatize it.
That's where Chas, Aurator and Tolerant1 come in.
Go get 'em boys!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:35
mozel (@Grizz) ID#153102:
A guy up the road aways emptied 9mm into a vest, but ain't here to tell abut it. Seems pointless to have ammo that won't penetrate a vest.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:34
oris (blooper, are you in food distribution business?) ID#238422:
I'm not a commie, and I am not
interested in your hand, bite it yourself...

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:34
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
oris -- Don't forget that the barrel length difference can mean a WHOLE lot in felt recoil. I.E., the shot shell will have approximately 4 times the length to get up to speed; 4 times the amount of time from the luger. Also the more massive weight of the shotgun makes a BIG difference. Personally, I hate those teeny butts on handguns. They tend to hurt.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:32
Rack (Griz-buckshot) ID#402131:
I think Guns and Ammo just checked out buckshot in an article a few months ago. #oo came out best but in the lighter loads ( faster recovery time as I remember. If I find it I will post it. I prefer #4 buck in magnum for the pellet count. It won't go through a car but thats not what its supposed to be used for

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:30
Grizz (Ballistics of Buckshot - for a Saturday morning) ID#424394:
00 Buck is 33 caliber but is only 54 grains and has poor ballistics due to roundness to start and deformation shortly thereafter. Though copper or nickle plating helps prevent deformation. Remington's Premier® Buckshot is hardened with 3% antimony, nickel-plated for additional hardness 15 pellets at 1210fps.
The Winchester page at
has a lot of info.

I agree that to reach down the hall or out on the lawn that a rifle may be needed or a rifled slug in that shotgun. The latter is a good idea if one has but one long weapon and maybe a handgun. Have an assortment of ammo for the shotgun: some light #4 Buck, some 00, and some slugs.
Somebody posted a while back about a cop getting hit with a 12 gauge slug and it killing him in spite of an armor vest. Must've been the shock to the heart from such a massive kick in the chest.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:28
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Themissinglink -- And I wasn't already 'paranoid' enough...

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:27
oris (Eldorado) ID#238422:
May be you are right with data.
Anyway, it's all pretty technical. Thanks.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:26
themissinglink (1.4 million personal bankruptcy's) ID#373403:
Put that number in the perspective of 90 million households in the U.S.. Year after year for the past few years.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:24
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Prometheus -- Brothers in arms.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:22
blooper (Oris) ID#207145:
Never bite the hand that feeds you. It might work. Are you a commie? Just asking, as the tone of your post was strange.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:20
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
oris - I'm sorry but from my data, a 9 mm luger muzzle velocity is 1135 ft/sec for a 115 grs bullet with energy at 329 ft.lbs. 00 buck velocity from a 3 shell carrying 15 pellets is 1225 ft/sec. They don't 'express' the muzzle energy. Take it as you will.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:16
Prometheus (@Eldorado) ID#210235:
Real money, real wealth, and real ( not paper ) assets - there's the best protection from the problem. Yessir, it's a real biggie. The fact that the US savings rate has actually dropped to 0% for the first time in history was pointed out in a news article I read today. Never really thought it would get this bad before the neo nifty-50 popped. 1.4 million personally ( not including business ) bankrupt last year. And that before the recession hits.

Oh my. Just standing back and giving it the cold calculating, purely statistical look is one of the most frightening exercises one could do! Let's join Tolerant1 and Studio in a great gulp to all who see through the haze to the realities. And especially to you.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:12
Bart Kitner (Kitco) (Mountie Update:) ID#259253:
TO Kitkat: You said Why did the Canadian Mint buy back the Mounties and melt them down?

They bought them back at $310 because they have to. It says so right on the coin. They own a put option for each coin in circulation, which they redeem as each Mountie is retired. The number of retirees is now 8,300 leaving only 21,700 in service. Just got word today.

You also said: Please share with us your perspective on what you foresee for the future price of gold.
You'll get some much better perspectives right here. We only trade the metal, having given up on guessing direction a long time ago. If you want a proven strategy play the volatility in the market by selling option premium when it is high. You'll almost always make money. Notice I said almost.

And your last query was Has the sale of Mounties increased in the same proportion as the golden eagles?
I don't know. Our ad for Mounties is ten times the size as Eagle ad so our numbers wouldn't be representative of anything.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:11
oris (Mozel) ID#238422:
Calcium Carbide was widely used in mining, including
gold mining. Nice source of power when electricity
was not available. Smirnoff is a famous brand of vodka.
Empty bottles is a product of modern society. Water
covers 70% of the Earth. Mixing is used in preparation
of coctails. I hope I covered it all...

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:10
Prometheus (@Gut reaction) ID#210235:
I've been following the trial balloon on the expected Clinton Grand Jury testimony. He actually may testify that he didn't purjure himself because his lawyer in the Jones case cleared a definition of sex based on sexual assault statutes which depend upon his touching another's genitals. I've run this past a few folks who are generally neutral on the Clinton issue and it's a real groaner. A big mistake for ol' I-feel-your-pain-Billy-boy. That he is nothing but a lawyer of the particularly sleazy variety just jumps out and grabs you.

Go for it, Mr. Bill!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:08
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Prometheus -- Counterfeit 'goverment' generating counterfeit 'money' and instituting counterfeit 'laws'. Now THERE's the problem!!!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:05
oris (Eldorado) ID#238422:
Sorry, but I'll try to correct you...

9 mm luger cartridge produces 250-350, 300 on average
foot-pounds of energy at the muzzle. Now, if you say that
15 much lighter 30 cal. ROUND pellets are more powerful
than 15 9 mm bullets, you are saying that shotgun blast
is producing at least 15x300=4,500 foot-pounds of energy
at the muzzle.

That seems to be too much...but may be I'm missing something.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:03
Prometheus (Jack) ID#210235:
your comments on counterfeit and the other kind of crooks are the best laugh of the day!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 01:01
Prometheus (@Squirrel) ID#210235:
You clearly don't have a beaurocratic bone in your swishy tail. 52,000 pages minimum for specifications. Doesn't matter if you don't need them. And a team of advocates to lobby each and every member of congress' staff to read it. Of course, no one will read it and you can substitute Malloy and Malone Dies repeated for all pages after 10,000. These are nonsense syllables repeated ad nauseam, and printed by the hundred-page by Samuel Beckett of Waiting for Go ( l ) dot fame.

Now we're cooking.

Power to the squirrel clan!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:59
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
JTF -- Counterfeit proof coinage, what a concept!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:55
mozel (@Squirrel) ID#153102:
Me and oris was talking about theoretical gold mining. That's all.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:55
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Grizz -- Pistol won't typically be worth much at longer range. Stick with a BARREL! I forget the exact equivalency, but a 00 buck shot is at or above 30 cal in size. a 3 shot shell carries 15 of them. Their velocity is greater than out of a handgun. You have 15 times the chance of doing like, or more, damage from a given distance with one shot than you do from a handgun. Longer range stuff is for neither pistol or shotgun.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:54
oris (mozel) ID#238422:
It depends...Kitco needs you, as I heard many
times, so do not put it in 5 liter bottle...ask
somebody else to do it....

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:54
Squirrel (JTF - I think you're on to something!) ID#280214:
What we need is a 50-page book of specifications.
One word, or one paragraph or one page won't cut it.
One drawback though.
Just think of all the research into brass, bronze, etc.
trying to get it right.
Ahhh - that's even better. An independent lab that has already done all that research - about 400 pages worth. {Just clone it out of a metallurgical reference}

Once the report gets up to around 1000 pages then that'll be something the bureaucrats and politicos will be able to deal with.

And you are right - NEVER - but NEVER mention the G word anywhere.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:52
mozel (@Jack) ID#153102:
Some people, I hear, just prefer paper. No point in arguing about it with them.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:48
Squirrel (Mozel - carbide lamps & bombs) ID#280214:
Used the former for caving back a while ago.
I heard about the bombs but never made any. Seems simple though.
So simple that we had accidents with too much water seeping into the carbide - which has a tendency to light a feller up - you might say.
And have a need to change his shorts too!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:47
oris (Blooper) ID#238422:
I got your point. You want to send food
to starving Commies, let them eat, and when they
are not starving any more, you'll hate them again...
You are really smart...I like it...

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:47
Jack (Mozel) ID#252127:

Like I said, does it make any difference. it's all there to be used to enrich the crooked souls. Best to buy gold with the both varieties.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:47
JTF (Gold coins) ID#57232:
Eldorado: What a great idea -- all we have to do is describe the concept of a gold coin to the right bureaucrat in our government, and presto -- we have a gold standard! Only problem, we will have to avoid the use of the word gold, as speaking of that 'thing' is strictly forbidden.

How about 'that unique gleaming yellow-orange metal' with the unusual chemical properties of being virtually impervious to the elements, and possessing unusually good wear resistance properties, making it ideally suitied for use as a currency. And, under the auspices of the proper analyst, counterfiet production can readily be ascertained, without resorting to fancy encoding techniques. Furthermore, coins made of this material offer intrinsic monetary value to any user, regardless of national origin. Also a counterfeit coin would have to be made of the same material as the real thing, since it is readily assayable. Consequently a counterfeit coin would be initially be the same value as the real coin. Sounds like the perfect prototype currency for the EURO.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:45
mozel (@oris) ID#153102:
That was an important operational detail, I think.
Would we be talking liter or five liter bottles ?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:43
Grizz (Thanks Oris, Eldorado & Squirrel - many good points) ID#424394:
5 yards is about all I need around the house.
But Oris has a good point - one 54-grain 00 pellet won't be much better than a 25 caliber Raven or a 22LR.

Maybe #3 buck would be best then with 24 to 27 23-grain pellets in a 3 shell. #4 buck has 41 pellets but they are lighter.

Probably best to switch to 9mm assult pistol or AK47 for longer range.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:42
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
oris -- Hmmm, Smirnoff; empty. I can deal with that.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:38
oris (Mozel, sorry, forgot to mention...) ID#238422:
Calcium Carbide and water should be in sealed bottle.
Empty bottle from Smirnoff will work...

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:38
strat (sharefin) ID#93241:
Thanks for the post. I saved it...pretty sure I saw it before, but it's nice to have for reference. It occurs to me that insurance companies will still get sued for exactly the reason you state...they knew a long time ago ( due diligence ) . There's gonna be a lot of rich lawyers out of this. It is a sad state of affairs. Maybe the best insurance is the kind we had before insurance companies were around...good neighbors. But that's no guarantee either. It's a real cluster*uck...hopefully, in the end, it leads to simpler times.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:38
blooper (JTF) ID#207145:
You have got it. I would send them condolences, and send N. Korea some food instead. I hate Communuists,. but not starving people. Clinton would say starving children.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:36
mozel (@Jack) ID#153102:
Do you think maybe some of that Canon Cash might go around ok when counterfeit gets scarce from the bank ?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:34
blooper (JACK, That was good, brother.) ID#207145:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:34
oris (Mozel, I'll post om calcium carbide...) ID#238422:
Mix it with water and watch...

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:33
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Sqirrel -- Also keep something decent with a longer range right at hand. Hard to beat a shotgun close up but you might otherwise be 'inconvenienced' from someone down the street who has longer range capability.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:33
JTF (What a great idea!) ID#57232:
Blooper: We just solved our foreign aid problem, and AG wanted to print US dollars anyway. I wonder -- just how fast can the North Koreans print that money? Can they keep up? Perhaps not.
We could send the Russians one, and the IMF would not have to ask for Congressional handouts to get the needed $18 billion US.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:30
mozel (@Squirrel) ID#153102:
I was kinda hopin' somebody would post on calcium carbide.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:29
blooper (Gold) ID#207145:
IT isn't going anywhere but down along with food, oil, and every natural thing on earth. Along with the stock market, jobs and our immediate future.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:29
goldfevr (in the final analysis) ID#434108:
only truth will stand
as the tree of life
in liberty
in the roots
of compassion, courage, humble work,
risk, creativity,
and enduring faith


the song
of eternal joy

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:29
Jack () ID#252127:

Counterfeits, what's the difference, both are created by annoited and unannoiated crooks.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:28
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
JTF -- Another reason for coinage of proper weight, size, and fineness. Tell them to counterfeit THAT! You know damn well that it had to be given them. Same as in Russia. Until the people regain their heritage, expect none else from our 'government'!

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:28
mozel (@Rivera) ID#153102:
ain't gona be in the clear til he says I want to suck you.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:27
Squirrel (ADM may be just such a vertically integrated predator of farmers) ID#280214:
And no - I have no financial or other interest in the book or author.
I just found it so enlightening and disturbing in the truth it tells
that I feel it should be read by as many of us as possible.

Grizz - I think double-ought buckshot packs the most punch but there are not as many pellets as in #4 buckshot.

Grant in a post on Sat Aug 08 1998 09:54 said:
Augment the aforementioned with a pump 12 ga stoked with 3 mag #4 buck and fully choked, and you can effectively guard your stash till someone gets the drop on ya.

Anybody else have any ideas?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:24
goldfevr (loving a pig - a metaphor for our times) ID#434108:
( the following, from Drudge Reports: )


Days after this space first reported the Monica Lewinsky story last
January, CNBC's Geraldo Rivera called the President of the United States a
pig on his national TV show.

RIVERA LIVE January 23, 1998, Friday

Geraldo: If this is true, getting oral sex from a 21-year-old, then he's
a pig. He may be a good president, but he's also a pig...

During the next six months, Rivera would experience a shift in opinion of
the president. During Rivera's media journey on the Lewinsky case -- he
would switch from calling the president a 'pig' to declaring love of the

RIVERA LIVE August 6, 1998, Thursday

RIVERA: Mr. President, we love you. I want to hug you. I'll say it again,
I want to hug you.

Rivera could not be reached for comment or explanation on his media

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:23
oris (Blooper) ID#238422:
BUT OUT, what is that? Explain, English is my second language..

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:21
blooper (JTF) ID#207145:
The North Koreans could then use US dollars made printing US dollars to buy food from US farmers.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:21
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Grizz -- 00 buck! Should be the best that might be used unless you are in the house and are afraid of stuff goin' through walls. In that case, you would simply back off to the real light stuff. You have to be the judge on that.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:20
oris (Grizz) ID#238422:
Buckshot is good at 10-12 yards, but then it spreads like
hell, particularly from the short barreled riot shotgun.
I tried it for fun a couple of times, and found that
effective range is very limited...If only one or two of
those 9-12 round pellets hit the target, it may not be enough
to deal with Y2K problem. Get a good old military style good old 30 cal....

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:19
blooper (Squirrel) ID#207145:
Think the Prez had that Diesel fuel and fertilizer in mind when he made overtures to farmers the other day?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:19
JTF (Just a thought!) ID#57232:
All: We have Cosco subcontracting our domestic satellite launches. Why not subcontract with North Korea to print US dollars for us? Apparently they are better quality than our own. Given our generous secret give away binge -- it seems logical to me.
When will this all stop?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:18
mozel (@Studio) ID#153102:
I've been thinking about that little symbol you found on the new greenbacks you withdrew. Wonder if it's the use by date in code.

I found a little U with a circle on a tax form that was never there before. Nobody could tell what it was or meant. They blow you off with it don't mean anything. Yeah. Right.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:17
blooper (I thought everybody made mone on this market. Someone doesn't?) ID#207145:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:16
Squirrel (For a great book on the farmers' plight) ID#280214:
Again I refer you to HARVEST OF RAGE by Joel Dyer {reviewed here by me on Sat May 09 1998 13:44} - but it is important enough to repost

Date: Sat May 09 1998 13:44
Squirrel ( HARVEST OF RAGE by Joel Dyer ) ID#290118:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
READ THIS BOOK! In an even-handed manner the author explains how farm folks {and rural folk in general} have been abused by government, banks and corporations. These conservative, peaceful, religious people have been pushed into a corner and feel they have no recourse but suicide or violence. He damns the patriots for profit and other opportunist right wing groups for taking advantage of these victims - likes flies & maggots on rotting meat. Both these groups and the government are to blame. Rural folk are caught in the middle and getting angrier by the day. The book's subtitle is Why Oklahoma City is Only the Beginning. The hardback book's cover has bullet-holes in it! For those of us who don't understand what is happening this book is a darn good explanation as to why. He interviews suicide hot line workers trying to help farm families. He interviews the most radical of the gun-toting right wingers from Republic of Texas to various militia groups and religious extremists. Many farmers are in debt up to their strangled necks and literally owe everything to a few multi-armed corporations. He spells out how a farmer is forced to deal with one large integrated multinational corporation that sells him seed, farm equipment, owns the bank, the grain elevator, the shippers, the packing houses, - the whole nine yards! Unlike other business owners - when these farmers are forced off their land their roots are torn from generations of heritage. Their land is part and parcel of their identity. Their anger and pain makes for a natural combination of common farm supplies: diesel fuel and fertilizer.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:15
blooper (JTF) ID#207145:
Like some intity is going to dilute this inflated money supply of ours.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:13
JTF (Rememeber those 100 dollar bills?) ID#57232:
All: Our government, in its infinite wisdom, just created the 100 dollar bills because of fears the old ones could be counterfeited. Well it seems that the North Koreans have already counterfeited the new 100 dollar bills. If the North Koreans can do it, why not terrorist groups, or?
Looks like someone in our government can't keep a secret -- but this time it is about our new dollar bills. So much for our security. No wonder the WhiteHouse wants to use the latest encryptation for their fiber optics link to the grand jury. I'll bet they are using something like 'pretty good privacy' rather than what they want the rest of the world to use.
If I were the US government, I would encode the serial number on a hidden digital mark in the ink somewhere else on the bill. Then -- it would always be possible to tell the counterfeit from the real, regardless of how good the counterfeits are, simply by reading the serial number, and compare it with the coded mark. With a little clever thinking, one could even devise counterfeit 'detectors' without giving anyone a chance to back engineer the encoding secrets.
Of course, the encoding secret must remain a secret.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:11
Eldorado (@!the scene) ID#173274:
6pak -- Undoubtably caused by a debt-based system backed by 'promises'. Judging from history of such, ( at least from the bit I've read so far ) what else might have been expected?

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:11
blooper (Oris) ID#207145:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:10
sharefin (Microsoft admits Windows 98 date snag) ID#284255:

Don't Don't Sue Me! Corporations Lobby for Y2K Liability Protection That Would Make Fixes Less Urgent,2326,201980814-14414,00.html>,2326,201980814-14414,00.html
US IT industry seeks protection from Y2K lawsuits
Wall Street seeks lessons in Y2K test
Citicorp Raises Year 2000 Cost Estimates,2326,201980814-14414,00.html

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:09
blooper (Six Pack) ID#207145:
Its the small ones I feel sorry for. ADM makin out like a bandit.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:09
oris (Wizened) ID#238422:
Do not critisize Blooper, he is making money...

By the way, if you need to borrow shiper rifle,
let me know...

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:08
Grizz (Oris - I concur on the #4 for ducks) ID#424394:
The NRA Rifle magazine had a good article on steel vs lead lethality.
Bigger is better, esp. with steel. There is a good case for #2 steel.

But I'm trying to find info on the various sizes of buckshot for defense.
Say from a 12 gauge riotgun.
After Y2K. Just in case somebody wants to steal my Silver or beef stew.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:07
blooper (Actually CROOKS DO WELL IN AMERICA. They become President.) ID#207145:

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:07
6pak () ID#335190:
Wednesday, August 12, 1998 Published at 13:55 GMT 14:55 UK

World: Americas US farmers in crisis

Such anxieties about the future have led to counselling sessions being set up, to deal with the depression, the stress-related diseases, and the talk of suicide among the usually stoical farming folk.

This is just as bad as the 1930s depression said one farmer, recalling a time when the combination of drought and the worldwide economic depression saw farmers leaving the land en masse.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:05
blooper (Wizened) ID#207145:
If youre not good enough to make money at this, dont criticise others. It does'nt mean you're honest, just unwize.

Date: Sat Aug 15 1998 00:00
I'll whip your arse boy.

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