- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:57
Earl () ID#227238: - Mozel: Rescind your voter registration ab initio nunc pro tunc
Sounds both groovy and sinister at the same time. ..... But what the hell does it mean? How does one proceed in the face of imponderable latin? ..... would it not be sufficient to just tell them all to go to hell?
And BTW, your neighbors and mine .... and everyone elses for that matter, WILL all be screaming their collective heads off, for a Maximum Leader. As they have, in times of stress, since the beginning of time. It's too obvious to even merit passing comment. ....... Pity that Maximum Leader will be in the ROR model ....... and not much to our liking.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:56
HighRise (Blooper, pact with the devil.) ID#401460: -
Clinton. He has made a pact with the devil.
YES, and in a way all those who are defending his behavior have also. And they are many and very powerful. They ignore the truth and all that is important to this Nation.
We are witnessing spiritual warfare at maybe it's highest level. Will this Nation and it's Office of the President survive?
HighRise
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:55
ERLE (Highrise) ID#190411: - Soros wants the milkcow taxpayers of the several donating countries to supply Russia with more reserves so that he can capture them by slamming their currency.
Doesn't he just bleed kindness? Ask Malaysia.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:54
Jeil (I am not having fun yet) ID#253228: - I have been for a few months been posting my little charts/projections at:
you knok the routine + www.pcis.net/jeannev/jeil.htm
I have had some kind comments which I appreciate, and perhaps others have been also kind by not expressing their opinions. I originally started posting to demonstrate how my particular approach to market analysis worked.
I lose perspective sometimes like right now when the disappointments of life seems to overwhelm my otherwise bright outlook. Anyway I continue to be bearish both on the S&P500 and Homestake. It will be interesting to see if Homestake can actually crater with the Baron von Finck draining shares from the marketplace. At least he is buying closer to the bottom than T. Boone Pickens who I think went in at $24 for a significant position.
Best wishes for successful trades, Jeil ( Neil )
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:54
ERLE (Highrise) ID#190411: - Soros wants the milkcow taxpayers of the several donating countries to supply Russia with more reserves so that he can capture them by slamming their currency.
Doesn't he just bleed kindness? Ask Malaysia.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:52
Jeil (I am not having fun yet) ID#253228: - I have been for a few months been posting my little charts/projections at:
http://www.pcis.net/jeannev/jeil.htm
I have had some kind comments which I appreciate, and perhaps others have been also kind by not expressing their opinions. I originally started posting to demonstrate how my particular approach to market analysis worked.
I lose perspective sometimes like right now when the disappointments of life seems to overwhelm my otherwise bright outlook. Anyway I continue to be bearish both on the S&P500 and Homestake. It will be interesting to see if Homestake can actually crater with the Baron von Finck draining shares from the marketplace. At least he is buying closer to the bottom than T. Boone Pickens who I think went in at $24 for a significant position.
Best wishes for successful trades, Jeil ( Neil )
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:50
Tamerlane__A (Fed Funds) ID#372276: - mozel,
What's the difference between the Fed Funds rate and the Real Fed Funds rate?
thanks,
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:49
blooper (America has never been attacked) ID#207145: - It will be. Ballistic missiles. After depression is war. They have MIRV.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:48
6pak (highRise @ Russia Disasterous YES) ID#335190: - Wednesday, August 12, 1998 Published at 12:36 GMT 13:36 UK
Business: The Economy
Kiriyenko gets tough
Russian Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko is trying to avert a meltdown
Russian Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko has vowed to pursue his government's economic policies despite a new crisis in the country's financial markets.
Kremlin under pressure
The Kremlin has been struggling to reassure nervous investors that Russia is not heading for a financial meltdown.
A senior Kremlin official said the central bank had at least $17.5bn in reserves and did not need to draw upon credits received from the International Monetary Fund.
Alexander Livshits, the deputy head of Russian President Boris Yeltsin's administration, said the finance ministry had enough funds to service all its debts for the coming month.
He said: We are not expecting a collapse.
However he acknowledged: The situation may slightly deteriorate or stay at yesterday's level
http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_149000/149729.stm
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:47
goldfevr (Humble Gold/Towering Dow//One Last up-side Chapter for the S&P, and Dow....due now.) ID#434108: - Economic Indian Summer'...
is approaching, unfolding...
just now, and just ahead.
The final chapter of false - prosperity
built upon a sea of credit/debt,
will attempt and achieve
it's final death-throes
in the false - euphoria
of the weeks
just ahead.....
as the DJIA reaches...seemingly triumphant..
toward '10,000' .
I continue to feel/believe/sense...
that a final-hook...
of the 'masses'
trapping them...at the top - still not yet here,
is -but- soon approaching...
( Meanwhile, seemingly far away....
and from more humble ground...
other golden opportunities, abound. )
Seems to me,
there needs to be a final, paternalistic assurance,
that - 'all is well'.
...
in this time of denial
and approaching, economic, and human
hell.
Ego-fancies,
and
institutions-of-corruption-&-greed,
and wishful-thinking...
seem to thrive...
everywhere...... galore.
The fewer few, yet continue,
to exploit, endlessly:
the humble, burgeoning hordes;
as the many -
honestly work, and create, and produce...
expecting & trusting
in exchange for their endeavors .....
an HONEST WAGE - in pay.
But alas,
we yet distract ourselves,
with numerous Neros who fiddle,
as more & more
Romes burn:
with Presidents & their laisons;
with electorates compliantly willing,
to go along...politely forgiving...
as they surrender
unknowingly;
and apathetically & ignorabntly the blind,
being led by the blind...
to their
mutual
slaughter.
Ignorance and denial, seem to rule this day...
of the centuries sunset, and waning way.
Yet, all of us...
on this monetary, economic, social, cultural & spiritual..
and very huan planet,
are interdependent;
we thus depend on
one another.
This eternal, golden truth,
will ultimately be understood, and accepted...
across every land & sea.
Meanwhile, we yet pretend, here, in the good ole USA,
of 'Economic Indian Summer' ....
that - what happens ...
in So. Korera, Malaysia, Russia, or Mexico,
are not that important, to us, here,
today.
But slowly, we are waking up, tomorrow...
to the fact, that -
we cannot -any of us - live ....
pretending to be,
economically self-reliant and independently separate...
even for -just today....
from the rest of the nations & peoples of the world.
The economies, cultures, & societies...
of the USA, Europe, Japan, China,
SE Asia, etc.,
are intimately, essentially, and vitally,
inter-connected, and inter-dependent upon one another.
The economies of such recently proud, flourishing,
and virtuous/self-reliant nations...
( - such as So. Korea, where they now give-up their children,
to adoption agencies/orphanages....
- because their devoted parents are desperate,
and can no longer feed their own children ) ...
This example -
'this' - is not a symptom of...
their internal, national corruption, or failing...
it is just one of the growing symptoms,
and siren-calls of warning...
of a global economy,
that is now imploding...
into world wide economic depression
because it - humanity - the collective 'we' -
( -and our 'representative' powers that be ) ...
keep refusing to:
acknowledge, base, and establish
money & credit,
on a sound footing:
of universal acceptance, trust and unquestioned integrity...
free of any nation's domination and manipulation.
The spreading, 1997-1998 collapse ...
of currencies, & economies, around the world....
are symptomatic of a global economy...
that is succumbing to the cancer of false and artificial -
money and credit..
created out of thin air
by the political & banking engineers..
who respond to, and comply with
the political pressures, of the power-structures that be.
This unfolding world-wide economic crisis & depression,
is rooted in the fact that:
a global economy insists on a ... :: )
universal,
trusted,
proven,
convertible,
accountable:
medium of exchange ...
and
store of value .
That is:
a currency redeemable, as : -
and a credit-unit/instrument, inherently definable as : -
a universal, independent standard and weight of gold.
Such a weight of measure,
and money - currency & credit,
is the only reliable, proven
currency and credit,
that history affirms,
and that humanity can count on..
in the impending flood.
Real money....civilized humanity's life-boat.
Such a real money, must enroll,
by it's very nature, history, and purpose;
the acceptance, trust,
and willing, unfettered, un-coerced
use of -
exchange of -
&/or savings of ......
by the universal, vast majority of all peoples -
of all nations, ethnic origins, creeds & races.
What will the entire world agree upon, and trust,
as the foundation of money & credit ?
Only gold based-credit, and currencies-convertible to gold,
will provide the life-boat,
that the Titanic global economy, now
so direly
needs.
The denial, avoidance, evasion, distraction and postponement..
of politicians, government power-structures,
and their wishful-thinking institutions & supporters...
and blindly-led electorates....
not-withstanding.....
in the chaotic, final, painful, shuddering chapter,
of this concluding 20th Century;
and in the re-birth of humanity....
in the new, fumbling, faith-filled, unfolding promise
of the 21st Century...
we will discover, and re-discover...
that honorable, trust-worthy, freedom-based,
and inherently independent ....
gold-defined & gold-convertible money and credit,
are essential
to any civilization...
that honors
the sanctity, devotion, humility, honor, beauty, freedom...
and entitled fulfillment..
of each & every member
of the human-race...
of humanity - the one, human family.
Sincerely yours,
David Blair Macrory
San Diego, CA
essene@k-online
goldfever@k-online.com
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:47
Gianni Dioro__A (War Cycles - Peace Cycles) ID#384350: - Earl, in May, I posted these articles found in Nexus Magazine, extracted from the book, War Cycles-Peace Cycles. I just recently got the book in the post and I am reading it now. FWIW, the book has many biblical references in it.
You might wish to get a copy of his book. tel: +1 ( 804 ) 384-3261
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q2/1998_05/980513.173237.gianni_di.htm
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q2/1998_05/980513.183135.gianni_di.htm
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q2/1998_05/980513.205248.gianni_di.htm
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q2/1998_05/980514.174852.gianni_di.htm
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q2/1998_05/980514.234101.gianni_di.htm
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q2/1998_05/980515.013302.gianni_di.htm
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:43
blooper (HighRise) ID#207145: - The pact I spoke of was the one to let Loral give MIRV technology to China. One day the missles willl be loosed upon us. He gets away with it because Americans are as sorry as he is. We deserve him.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:41
robnoel__A (Skip...Low grade common date saints and Libertys have had a slow but steady increase since September) ID#411112: -
of last year....ie.MS 61 Saints in Sept were trading for $429.00 now $499.00.....they have been $20 higher but have pulled back the last few weeks......my supplier still needs notice if I need to order 100 or more.....not much product is being sold....MS 60's are still hard to find in quantitys..
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:40
robnoel__A (Skip...Low grade common date saints and Libertys have had a slow but steady increase since September) ID#411112: -
of last year....ie.MS 61 Saints in Sept were trading for $429.00 now $499.00.....they have been $20 higher but have pulled back the last few weeks......my supplier still needs notice if I need to order 100 or more.....not much product is being sold....MS 60's are still hard to find in quantitys..
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:40
tolerant1 (STUDIO_R and Third in the House of ARAGORN, NAMASTE' delicious are the) ID#373284: - tears that roll off my cheeks, would that I might bring joy to each of your lives...that the likes of you consider me friend...truly I am blessed...truly blessed...and Leo rocks eh...uh huh...
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:32
blooper (HighRise) ID#207145: - I am worried. Have started using St. John's Wart, and drinking lots of coffee. I am planning on buying bullion at the lows, just in case , at some point our money is debased. Am thinking about paying off my home. It's like I'm getting my affairs together. Am concerned about the sheep, li ke you said, getting eaten by the wolves in times of peril. I know exactly how you feel. Also about Clinton. He has made a pact with the devil.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:29
HighRise (6 pak & blooper) ID#401460: -
Soros said the Group of Seven leading industrial nations should provide a further $15 billion to shore up confidence in the new regime, adding any delay would be
disastrous.
It looks like others are worried, DISASTEROUS
HighRise
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:29
Wizened (How right you are... True North) ID#242303: - The mining Industry is primarily out to enrich it's managers at any cost. What other industry would work on such low margins. What other industry has such an abysmal record of paying dividends.
They are lucky that the allure of gold and 'the big strike' has seen investors happy to jump on board with financings and propping up the share price.
Things not looking very good Dow down Gold down, Dow up Gold down!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:29
themissinglink (Boy I wish I had some more dry powder) ID#373403: - Newmont is just so enticing......
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:28
Dave (@IMF in 1977....) ID#261155: - @war on drugs 1988........@UN assumes control of world oceans...establishes world criminal/civil/maritime Courts..with penalty for non-compliance with UN directives by any and/or member country officials 1998.....cool....^s^
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:28
Skip (How have gold coins done?) ID#287129: - Does anyone know what has happened to the value of numismatic gold coins in the last year and last six months? ...such as pre-1930 US coins, St. Gaudens, MS-62, MS-63, MS-64, etc...? Have they also gone down, or up?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:27
weiser (robnoel__A) ID#202123: - Enjoy!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:25
HighRise (blooper - wall of worry, for sure.) ID#401460: -
I think so, but no one else appears to be bothered by what is going down. Most Americans are totally unaware of the events that are unfolding around them. Many don't see a paper and many can't even read a paper if they had one.
Of course that wouldn't matter, the media is totally controlled by Big Brother all is well.
It is a sex issue and is not important.
China? where is it exactly, near Mexico? Dah!
Buy the Dips!
Good Night All
HighRise
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:25
tolerant1 (mozel, seet is not a word) ID#373284: - My very best kindness to you...honest, my very best...
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:22
Bingo (Mozel) ID#263254: - Aragorn III dissertation can be found in the form of a theory
posed to ANOTHER on USA Gold update August 11th. I look forward
to your comments!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:22
6pak (Soros @ Russia ) ID#335190: - August 12, 1998
Soros urges Russia to devalue rouble
LONDON, Aug 13 ( Reuters ) - International financier George Soros called on Thursday for a devaluation of the Russian rouble and suggested the introduction of a currency pegged to the dollar or euro.
In a letter to the Financial Times, Soros said Russia's financial markets had reached a terminal phase.
He conceded the currency board he was proposing for Russia was too rigid, but said that in the present circumstances, it is the most efficient way to stabilise the situation.
The billionaire philanthropist, who made a fortune betting against the European exchange rate mechanism in 1992, said Russia would need $50 billion of reserves to back a currency board, whereby it would be committed to exchanging roubles for dollars or euros at a set rate.
Soros said this rate should be 15 to 25 percent below the current exchange rate, to reflect the impact of the collapse in the oil price.
The Financial Times said Russia had more than $17 billion of reserves, with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank having agreed to provide a further $17 billion of assistance.
Soros said the Group of Seven leading industrial nations should provide a further $15 billion to shore up confidence in the new regime, adding any delay would be disastrous.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:20
Fred (To: Steve in TO__A ) ID#341234: - From what I have read, I think you hit on the two biggest bear funds. I have already started investing in Prudent Bear. I like their name, and they have a great web site with a picture of a real bear. What more could you want?
http://www.prudentbear.com/
Also, compare their performance with the S&P and it is almost a perfect mirror image.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=BEARX&d=1ys
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:18
robnoel__A (weiser....no I'am in the dessert and have a fine cold BASS in hand....appointed by HMTQ) ID#396249: -
.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:17
mozel (@Earl) ID#153102: - I've been meaning to lecture you on this tendency to utter the discouraging word.
Talking Heads will approve of it. Broadcast Poll Results will approve of it. People whose credit accounts are filled from the federal credit account directly or indirectly will approve of it. The National Association of Police Chiefs and other Law-Enforcement will approve of it. Nothing new in all this so far.
Rescind your voter registration ab initio nunc pro tunc if you have not done so already. Why associate yourself with it in any way or give any grounds for saying you willingly participate in it ?
In 1765 it was illegal to have a press in Virginia without the license of the King and all of the media was a friend of the government. Do Tyrants ever sleep soundly and have seet dreams ?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:16
HighRise (What is the real price of Gold?) ID#401460: -
No one really knows, let's all admit that!
http://www.kitco.ca/gold.graph.html
http:///gold.graph.html
A/EUROPE
SPOT PRICE
August 12, 1998
11:00PM New York Time
Timezone Equivalents .
Bid
Ask
Change from New York close
GOLD ( Spot )
285.10
285.60
+2.40 +0.85%
Gold ( CMX )
Dec
286.90
287.40
286.60
286.70
-0.10
8/12/98
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:14
blooper (HighRise) ID#207145: - It's a GREAT BIG wall o worry. Like a wall of China wall o worry.Soon to be a spyder short wall o money.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:13
panda (CRB............) ID#30116: - In the FWIW column, this chart of the CRB index is.....?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:12
Earl () ID#227238: - Gianni Dioro__A: Good stuff! I seem to recall a Mozel post that dealt with the very same topic. Post more or a link, if possible.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:08
weiser (robnoel__A You must be drinking warm Canadian) ID#202123: -
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:07
Fred (To: truenorth__A ) ID#341234: - Great example of the higher production & lower cost spiral the mining companies are in. I just wish you had been able to convince me of this a few months ago.
To: CC
Production is a small percentage of existing gold, but it is a large percentage of the physical gold that is put up for sale. Most physical gold is used in jewelry, and jewelry is rarely melted down and put back on the market. You are right that a large amount of fresh demand could easily push up the price. Unfortunately, other countries that have recently dealt with stock market crashes have not turned to gold, rather they sold gold and stopped buying jewelry. The U.S. may not be any different. I am not trying to depress fellow gold bugs. I just do not want them to go broke.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:06
Lou_Jan (POG) ID#320136: - Gold up $2.40
Go Yellow!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:02
HighRise (And The Beat Goes On) ID#401460: -
At this rate we will not make it to October!
Japan ... well you know, the same old, same old, ...
Russia Bank Defaults
Indonesia Bank Defaults
Hong Kong drop the Peg
China Devaluation
Canada Devaluation
Latin America Devaluation
Commodity Price Deflation
US Stock Markets TUMBLE ( media word )
Clinton Side Show
Russia, thanks to Clinton, has a super computer.
China, thanks to Clinton, has a multi warhead ballistic missle,
Two US Embassy's attacked / blown up, an act of war.
Yah Boy, Billy Bob,
You are really doing a great job Bill, keep up the good work! What else can you F++K UP!
Question, at some point, does the US$ have to devalue? Nah!
HighRise
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:02
weiser (zeke--- Thanks, and you're right. ) ID#202123: - Anyone coming into this page, should get the feel of it.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 23:00
zeke (The Bull-on-a-Bear Mode) ID#25257: - We're lookin' at a short term bull--about 30 to 45 days of flaming unequivocating screaming bull market. Tuck it in for this small time frame and live! After that...Bonzai Billy! Back to the trenches.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:56
Gianni Dioro__A (War Cycles Peace Cycles) ID#384350: - The following is the introduction from the book, War Cycles-Peace Cycles by Richard Kelly Hoskins, 1985, Virginia Publishing Company, tel: +1 ( 804 ) 384-3261
In the Spring of 1980 I was asked to speak at a financial seminar in Washington DC. At that time gold had just traded at $850 and ounce. Other commodities were reaching fantastic heights. During the seminar speaker after speaker rose to comment on unending inflation.
This flew in the face of history. When my time to speak arrived, I told the audience that based on the prior three economic cycles since this country was founded, we could expect lower commodity prices, higher stock markets, and then- a 1929 type depression.
The example I used which made it all inevitable is the example below:
If there is only $10 in existence, and you lend it to someone under condition that he repay $11, and if he agrees to this, he has agreed to the impossible.
A usury contract impossible to fulfill has been made. Another fish has been caught. If you understand this you can dispense with reading this book. You already understand usury.
The audience at the seminar was not satisfied. That afternoon most of them met in a hot crowded meeting room for a question and answer period. After almost 3 hours we had to call a halt. I promised that I would elaborate on their questions and put it down in a book. After 5 years this book is the result of that meeting.
Money is simple. The same things occur throughout history time after time. It is like a car going around the block. One time it may be green, another time orange, another time black. After the 16th time it doesn't matter what color the car is. You recognize what it is. Once we grasp how simple the system is, it becomes easy to make an accurate educated guess what will come next. What is happening now has happened before, and it will happen again.
-Richard K Hoskins
--------------------------------
Excerpts from the first several pages are linked below.
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q2/1998_05/980513.173237.gianni_di.htm
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:56
Earl () ID#227238: - Mozel: So, USG is only going to do superficial preparations for a shift away from reserve currency status for the greenback and for Y2K.
It's a rich opportunity for the consolidation of singular national power..... and the people will demand it. That's what so sad.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:55
Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug (Bank of Canada & Gold Sales (Gold sold at $329.76 per oz) ) ID#432214: - The Canadian Dept of Finance announced on August 6, 1998 that the bank had an increase in reserves of U.S. 55.4 million due to sales of 168,000 oz of gold. ( www.fin.gc.ca/newse98/98%2D073e.htm ) A calculation of the above figure gives a $329.76 per oz sale price. The press release states that these are changes in the the banks official international reserves during the month of July, 1998.
As we all know gold did not trade at $329.76 during the month of July!
I called the Department of Finance number at the bottom of the press release ( 613 ) 992-4468. I asked how the bank had realized a $50+ premium on the spot gold price during the month of July.
I was told that the actual sales were in the futures/options market and the actual delivery was during the month of July. So when did the Bank of Canada Sell the gold
I was also told that the Bank's policy is to sell the entire gold holding. ( Now only 2.9 million oz ) MAYBE ITS WAS SOLD MONTHS AGO )
Can any gold trader tell me when the bank could have received $329.76 per
oz, on the OTC, this will tell us when they were selling!!!
Go Gold
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:55
robnoel__A (weiser.....by far my favorite commercial...as for the beer where I come from we call it wesil piss) ID#411112: -
.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:55
themissinglink (Confiscation) ID#373403: - Besides the few of us Kitco hardcases, who else will be holding bullion when we are forced back on the gold standard by a failed fiat currency system? Our gold is being confiscated right now, legally, by holding prices down a.k.a. Switzerland, Australia, Portugal, Argentina?, Belgium.
4,500 years of human instinct for money with an intrinsic value thrown out in 1971. Within several decades, the middle 50% of the population is screwed out of their savings as fiat burns.
Fiat cannot burn? Whats that I smell to the East? Whats that I smell to the South? Burning paper. Sometimes fire cannot be contained once it gets big enough. Omigosh! Whats that mound of paper doing underneath us here in America?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:55
Gusto Oro (Weiser) ID#377235: - Here's the Bud free postcard sending site--just for fun.
http://www.budweiser.com/outdoors/postcardindex.html
--AG
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:53
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (HATT, HIGHRISE, MOREGOLD--) ID#394240: - SHH!!!!!!! Quit your barkin'! You'll wake up BEN!! He may be blind, but he ain't DEAF!!! Somethin's rotten in HK!! Heh...heh...heh!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:53
Steve in TO__A (Bear Funds) ID#287337: - I'm thinking of comitting goldbug heresy and sinking some money into a mutual fund- but one of the bear funds designed to make money when the markets head south.
I'm aware of the Prudent Bear Fund and the Ryder Ursa Fund. Does anyone know of any other bear funds?
ThankQ,
Steve
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:50
Earl () ID#227238: - Steve in TO: The shadow govt has been bandied about for some time. I don't know that anyone has ever gotten a handle on it. Rather than view it conspiratorily, I try to look at it as nothing more than the age old problem of inners and outers. Inners being those who would seek their fortune with the full aid of a government. ..... And Outers being the rest of us who are forced to devote too much time and effort in the enterprise of escaping the affections of the Inners.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:50
weiser (robnoel__A--- bad choise of words from me.) ID#202123: -
Got the name weiser from a can of Budweiser.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:50
sharefin (Watch Asia slipping downhill) ID#284255: - http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/YAsian.htm
From
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Sharefin.htm
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:49
Steve in TO__A (Gogold - I know you think some of the folks are fearmongering . . . ) ID#287337: - but if you weren't afraid of the USG before maybe you will be after looking at http://www.fear.org/
F.E.A.R. stands for Forfeiture Endangers Americans' Rights, and they have some pretty horrifying examples of how certain government agencies can get out of control when there's money to be gotten.
Steve
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:45
MoReGoLd (@New Dog In Town) ID#348129: - HK now in meltdown mode: 6638.79 -220.69 -3.22%
How long before these falling dominos reach the overbloated US markets?
Do we need to wait until October ?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:45
mozel (@Bingo) ID#153102: - Earl stated precisely my meaning.
Domestically, USG needs turmoil. It needs people crying out Order, Order at any price. To seize more power and justify the usurpations already made in unpublicized legislation. Public safety is such a powerful phrase in the Constitution. Look up the context in which it occurs. So, USG is only going to do superficial preparations for a shift away from reserve currency status for the greenback and for Y2K.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:37
HighRise (HK) ID#401460: - Hong Kong
Hang Seng
^HSI
10:42PM
6682.74
-176.74
-2.58%
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:34
zeke (Weiser) ID#25257: - Thanks for the Eye-Opener. Thought we had a Johnny Weismuller. Next time play the game for awhile. These guys are serious; haven't you noticed?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:33
truenorth__A (CC) ID#189268: - I dont want to beat a dead horse here but, this is an excerpt from a release issued by Goldcorp today. Note higher production and lower cash costs a prevalant theme.
Wharf Mine
- higher production, up 20% for the first 6 months to 58,067 ounces
( 27,169 ounces produced in the second quarter )
- lower cash production cost per ounce, down 21% for the first 6 months to $190 ( $187 per ounce in the second quarter )
- South Dakota approves mine expansion application; reserves increase by 100%; total permitted reserves increased to 1.3 million ounces
These cash cost keep going lower therefore Gold prices will keep going lower.
Increased production does matter in the face of decling prices. No industry increases production when your product is in abundant supply in the form of leased gold by Cb's. It is a self-fulfilling prophesy. Leased gold gets sold into the market which drives prices down, attracts short sales which lowers prices further which means a company must sell more to maintain profitability. This is a vicuous circle. If the next six months bring the same activity as have the last 6 you will have many casulties like Pegasus a $30 stock a few years ago now worthless or Greenstone a developing company not an exploration company which has seen its' stock price slashed from $10 in April to $2.60 yesterday. This is what I mean by a sense of urgency. There is no desperation that I can see in light of these examples.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:32
robnoel__A (weiser.....sorry about the spelling error ....I skiped that class) ID#396249: -
.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:31
HighRise (Two Views) ID#401460: -
http://www.kitco.ca/gold.graph.html
http:///gold.graph.html
HighRise
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:30
The Hatt (Asia turning red again!) ID#294232: - Hong Kong down 2.5% and the rest are starting to follow! Further evidence that an up day on wall street means nothing! Let me correct myself it only means something to the pros who are unloading paper into every rally!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:30
weiser (Zeke I'm 51 and have been dickin' around with PM since 1979---) ID#202123: -
Most of the time, I've had the d--k put to me. Sorry if I pulled your chain the wrong way.
Jerry
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:23
gogold (Thanks for the URL - but Coin Universe doesn't have a population report) ID#353204: - in the form I'm looking for.
If you moranises think the U.S. Government
would destroy the village in order to
save it, then you haven't been employed
in a government job before. Stop fear
mongering based on some nonsensical
premise - the U.S. Government is not
some all-powerful, unyielding, unthinking
entity. Check your passport if you have
one and tell me the same thing with a
straight face. Or do you have a chip
implanted in your butt so it doesn't
matter where you go?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:23
mozel (@Bingo) ID#153102: - Well, I regret to say I missed or don't recall the AIII dissertation, but I will say people on this forum have not grasped the significance of what happened in 1977 when the IMF was founded.
USG will import foreign troops to master the civilian population if necessary and do so legally on the authority of Treaties made.
The ultimate, complete internationalization of the legitimacy of USG was implied in Lincoln's first inaugral address. Lincoln declared the federal had a legitimacy from the law of nations completely independent of the grants of power made by the States in the Constitution. In other words, he stated the federal was an international sovereign not depending on the Constitution for its existence. This full internationalization of USG's legitimacy has now come to pass under the noses of the people. Martial law is the law of nations. The federal are your masters.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:21
weiser (robnoel_A--- that period made you wiser, and friends always come in first.) ID#202123: -
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:18
Steve in TO__A (Earl - Concerning the real US gov't . . . ) ID#287337: - just thought you might like to know that J.E. Hoover referred to his office in private memos as Seat of Government and used the acronym SOG for it.
People have postulated that there has been a shadow government operating in the US since the Truman era.
Steve
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:15
zeke (Weiser) ID#25257: - Hey, Your the kind of guy that makes it. The sloggers have been bangin'
it for years and suddenly you come in. They've been saving and planning for the big one. After awhile they become compacent and begin eating the reserve. At day 101 you enter and take over the cave. Bingo-Bango you're the big guy, full of wisdom and cunning. You saw. You saved up for the big one and survived. The old guys--the old guard--nowhere to be found. They cut and run too soon. Welcome hero!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:14
Leland (Reuters on Polish Central Bank Reserve Gold Purchase. (Thanks to Everyone Who Helped Confirm.)) ID#316193: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980812/markets_co_1.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:12
robnoel__A (wieser.....I have a case of peanut butter and jam...pork and beans...I lived through the 70's on ) ID#396249: -
that diet...and with a little help from my friends
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:11
Earl () ID#227238: - Bingo: I believe Mozel is saying that the USG is willing to allow all of those things to come pass and be visited upon the world, in an effort to maintain its present position on the world stage. Given the quality of governance in the US today, that hardly seems surprising.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:11
Steve in TO__A (Does anybody have any info. on . . . ) ID#287337: - Ursa Major International Inc.
90 Adelaide St. W. Suite 400
Toronto, Ontario Canada, M5H 3V9
Tel: ( 416 ) 864-0615 Fax: ( 416 ) 864-062
http://www.ursa-major.com/pr.htm
They appear to me to be a very speculative exploration company. I'd appreciate hearing any scoops you may have on them.
Thanx,
Steve
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:07
robnoel__A (gogold.....here is a URL.....keep your shots on guys) ID#396249: -
http://www.coin-universe.com
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:06
weiser (God, I love this site) ID#202123: - Someone here, months ago mentioned beefstew and today, I bought another 20 cans of Dinty Moore for $1.19 ( 24oz cans ) .
Gold dipping below 285, what could I do--- I bought. Silver, what could I do--- I bought.
Do I believe in doom? No! Do I believe in being prepared? YES!
There's an economic beast out there, and it's going to kill everyone it can.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:03
zeke (Furrball 98) ID#25257: - Y2K-compliant Joe, I installed Windows 98 on my old Pentium-133 a month ago and it furrballed--i.e. it went brain-dead. OK this, Scandisk began to unravel my harddrive. Hundreds of dollars later, I am the proud owner of a six-Gig attack machine with 28-bit sucker-bear savvy. If I'm not Y2K compliant now, I'll spend my vac time with Bill. Can you dig?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:02
CC (Fred & TrueNorth) ID#334219: - I don't think that gold production is the big issue in this equation. Gold production is still only 2% of all above ground gold. Who cares if the miners reduce this production to 1.5% of total stock. When some of the big money shift from Wall Street to gold, production will no longer matter.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:01
gogold (How does if your to cheap to pay, well thats life translate into English?) ID#353204: - I give free advice on here all the time. Do I ever charge for
it? Do I ever tell people, Well, if your to cheap to pay, that's
life? Man, give me a break. You can't tell me we don't have
even one coin dealer who frequents this site. Is that what you're
telling me? That not one coin dealer ever reads this site?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 22:01
gogold (How does if your to cheap to pay, well thats life translate into English?) ID#353204: - I give free advice on here all the time. Do I ever charge for
it? Do I ever tell people, Well, if your to cheap to pay, that's
life? Man, give me a break. You can't tell me we don't have
even one coin dealer who frequents this site. Is that what you're
telling me. That not one coin dealer ever reads this site?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:56
CC (TrueNorth_A) ID#334219: - What you say may be true for South Africans... most their mines are in SA and their costs are in local currencies. But this ain't true for many Canadians who are mining all over the place. A great portion of their operating costs are in $US. I also get hundreds of quarterly and annuals..and there are very few Barricks that are hedged at $400 and still making money. As for increasing production...well I can understand this coming from Barrick as they open the 750K ounces/year Pierina mine..but there are more plans that are being postponed than are moving ahead. These are tough times...but like it happens in the past, the industry will survive and will come back roaring with the next bull.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:51
Bingo (Mozel, so what you are trying to tell us is....) ID#263254: - USG is not about to revalue the dollar as per Aragorn III's dissertation, even though it would allow business as usual and perhaps a realtively smooth transition into a new world reserve currency with the EURO-to the benefit of all citizens of all countries.
USG wants chaos, panic, starvation, death and ultimate control
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:51
mozel (@Earl @aurophile @Silverbaron) ID#153102: - Earl. Thanks for the read. And the good word. Disney's report on the behavior of USG people in Kenya is another indicator of what I see as an incipient siege mentality in our public masters. The civilians ( a.k.a. natives ) are almost restless.
aurophile Thank you, too. Silver is understating the hazard.
Silverbaron The USG in place is not the USG empowered by the Constitution. It did not survive the War of Northern Aggression and any vestiges were scheduled for erasure by the consequences of the New Deal. I think Devolving Constitution is apt.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:49
HighRise (Yr2K Windows98 NOT!) ID#401460: -
I hope I didn't post this earlier, if so, I am sorry for the repost.
It gave the following error message:
This computer failed this test, there is a high probability that you will have date related problems after 1st January 2000. It is advised that you consider upgrading this Operating System to a later version.
Prove It 2000, made by a company of the same name, failed the operating system.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_148000/148556.stm
All you WinTel people will just have to anti up to King Bill again next year. Buy Mac 89, it is a much more reliable OS.
“But, if it is any comfort to users, despite their findings, the makers of Prove It 2000 say Windows 98 is year 2000 compliant.”
MSFT has probably threaten to put them out of business.
HighRise
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:41
HighRise (Whoa!) ID#401460: -
http:///gold.graph.html
BLIP!
HighRise
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:40
JTF (Agreed: Euro is only supported by gold, but that is better than no gold ) ID#57232: - Spock: Until we are officially informed that the EURO is being actively backed by purchases and sales of gold to keep its worth constant, it will not be a serious threat to the US dollar. Eventually there will be such a currency, but I suspect there will be many years and much turmoil before the public insists on such things. The most likely origin of the first major currency actively backed by gold will be from SEAsia, simply because they have already had their debt crisis -- or will very soon.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:40
sharefin (Y2K MOVEMENT ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATIONS) ID#284255: - http://www.azstarnet.com/~nuu/Y2K/Responses_to_AR/Y2K_A&R.htm
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:39
zeke (The Gold Bug Lure) ID#25257: - All this is what I like about the gold schtick: Nobody knows--nobody knows! Matt Dillon strides out into the dusty street...Miss Kitty watches from the saloon. Am I fast enough; will I kill or be killed?
The Gold Bug rests the heal of his hand on the butt of the 44. The stranger winces in the glinting dusty sunlight. ( No whistling spaghetti Western music please! ) Dillon spreads his sweaty palm anticipating the stranger's move. Bamm Bamm Bamm! Someone blinks. Someone dies. In six weeks we all will know. Someone will ride off into the Sonrise.
Love, Zeke
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:37
chas (Squirrel re Hi grading) ID#147201: - High grading is an art that only hard rock miners know. There is really no way to prevent all of it. High pockets Heidrick could tell you a lot if he was still with us. If they ever get out if the mine with it, they are free.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:33
sharefin (Rhody) ID#284255: - Could you please email me re lease rates
sharefin@cairns.net.au
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:30
JTF (Read your post again) ID#57232: - JP: Am I right that you are thinking long-term about the US dollar backed by gold, post debt collapse -- whenever it happens? That I will agree with -- but that could be many years from now.
What is more likely in the not so distant future is that gold will rise when the threat of inflation returns. Perhaps commodity prices will bottom within a few months, and begin to rise. A less likely scenario is severe turmoil in the US markets for a long period of time, with some desperate investors bailing out for more secure investments, and falling back on 'gold standards'.
I would place my bets on gold not rising significantly until AG begins to inflate the dollar to keep a sinking economy from sinking further.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:29
truenorth__A (CC Mining companies) ID#189268: - Sorry CC but you have not seen the last quarter reports for many major companies as I have. I sampled many reports from many companies in Canada, Australia and South Africa. The theme is the same. Increased profits, especially in South Africa, increased production and lower costs of production. They achieved this mainly because their currencies have been chopped. I did not say there were no mergers but there is not the type of activity you would expect when the price for your product goes down $120 in two and half years. I do not see any urgency. Do you realize that the major companies in North American like Barrick and Placer have all stated they would close higher cost mines, in Barricks case about 5, yet their projected output for the next three years is actually higher than thier previos forecast!! Is this consistent with an industry in turmoil? If the price goes lower we wil see how lean and mean they are. There is only so much you can do with the high-grade ore you have at your disposal and you can't count on a debased currency indefinately.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:27
EZ Believer__A (EZ Believer (Sharefin)) ID#173262: -
Thanks for the Investech report.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:24
Isure (@ GoGold ) ID#368244: -
One last time, PCGS and ANACS has the information for a small fee.
If your to cheap to pay, well thats life.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:20
Spock (JTF) ID#210114: - Despite what some will tell you a gold backed currency won't be the Euro.
People here are arguing that the Euro is 'backed' by 15% gold.
It isn't. The ECB is holding 15% of its foreign reserves in gold. The U.S holds 60% of its foreign reserves in gold yet no-one hear would suggest that the US dollar is 60% 'backed' by gold.
Only the Swiss franc is backed by gold and that link is about to severed.
Live Long and Prosper.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:15
JTF (Gold backed US dollar?) ID#57232: - JP: You lost me on that one. Any country with a currency solidly backed by gold must be prepared to buy and sell gold as an active reserve currency. As AG said once recently, this worked very well in the past. Probably a bit more complicated these days with electronic money.
The problem I have with your scenario is that I do not believe that we have enough gold in Fort Knox to back the US dollar -- at the current price of gold. Switzerland might be able to do this, but few other countries could.
I am no economist, so I do not know precisely how much gold is necessary -- I do not think the reserves need to be 100% of the monetary base. It is probably something like the reserves of a local bank -- one needs reserves to cover fluctuations in holdings, and a little extra for the emergencies.
I doubt that AG has been secretly buying gold -- but he would be very smart if he was. Even then the price of gold would have to go up quite a bit so that gold could be used seriously as a US dollar reserve currency. Going back to a corollary of Gresham's law, there probably will be no threat to the US dollar until some other currency that competes with the US dollar is backed by gold. I would be very interested in hearing your thoughts about which currency that might be.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:14
goldy88 (LBMA VOLUMES) ID#42039: - TO ALL:Anybody knowsWhere can we check LBMA Daily average volumes?
Thanks.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:12
Fred (To: truenorth__A ) ID#341234: - I wish I had figured it out a few months ago. I hate denial.
To CC:
The mining companies have cut everything EXCEPT production. Still, I do not believe it is really their fault. It is just the way the free market works; everything goes in cycles. Look at what has happened to oil.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:08
gogold (Hi, does anyone have a CCDN population report?) ID#353204: - I'm looking for quick answers to questions about U.S. Commemoratives
before 1935 grading MS-66 or higher. Thanks in advance for your help,
and please stop sending me links, I want live bodies.
sjulins@hotmail.com
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:07
HighRise (Double Bottom?) ID#401460: -
http://goldsheet.simplenet.com/ratio.htm
HighRise
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 21:05
RJ (..... No need for my input this fine eve .....) ID#411259: -
Was going to revisit The Rolly's and further elaborate on The Worth of Gold, but squirrel has taken up the lance and is acquitting himself proudly. Gold will not rise in a vacuum, all else will rise also. Holders of gold will pretty much keep what they got, but they will not get rich.
A rising tide, raises all boats.
The Squirreler of Fodstuffs, has clear vision on this matter, so I will go rinse off my kayak.
You go, squirrel...
Indeedy O
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:58
CC (Truenorth_A ) ID#334219: - I am not sure what you are talking about but mining companies have been living mean and lean for some times now. Very few are making profits, they have curtailed exploration programs and cut everywhere they could. There are mergers taking place. And yes many will survived despite the few casualties.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:58
Earl () ID#227238: - Mozel @19:16: You remain one of the few for whom I would devote extraordinary effort to understand. That opus required 3 complete passes but was worth it.
In the end you understated the sense of the final paragraph.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:55
Fred (To: Tantalus Rex ) ID#341234: - A full 20% of my assets were in the gold mutual fund. I feel much more comfortable at 10%. This is a better “play money” level, and I plan to hold on through most of ‘99. In the near future, I plan to put some money into a bear market mutual fund, maybe 10-15%. I will also continue to buy physical gold. The rest will stay in the money market
Preparing for Y2K is another issue. I have invested in the Texas concealed weapons class. Anyone who tries to take my gold can have some lead for free. I plan to put some real cash into my safe deposit box before the end of the 1999. If things start to look bad due to failures in January 1999, I will buy plenty of supplies and maybe even invest in a rural get-away place. I will stash more cash and gold, and the only “account” I will have will be a federally insured money market account.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:49
JP (Hopefull- A gold backed currency is the most important element for the next prosperous phase) ID#253153: - Floating currencies creating chaos and confusion. Look at the Far East, Russia, Africa, South America, Australia and Canada, all these countries are having economic difficulties. Floating currencies are the primary cause of deflation and we are in a deflationay phase now. The strength of the dollar does not indicate strong economy, it indicates an economy on the verge of a credit collapse, and I think that after Nov you will agree with me.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:41
sharefin (J Stack) ID#284255: - INVESTECH FINANCIAL UPDATE: Tuesday, August 4, 1998
Is it an omen... or what? Tonight, for the first time in 10 years at our new
InvesTech Offices on Whitefish Lake, we had to chase a live black bear out
of our office garbage dumpster. THAT is no joke!
We're now entering a critical stage for this market. The blue chip indices
are down only about 9%, but the Russell 2000 Index is already off over 18%.
The DJIA did close today just several points above its 39-week moving
average. Any downward thrust from here, WILL start triggering the momentum
sell programs. Crash scenarios usually unfold at around 10-to-13% losses;
and that is now between here and DJIA 8000.
The losses in today's closing hour were blamed on one of the most vocal new
era advocates announcing on CNBC that ( quote ) : I think we're at the
beginning of something that's bigger than what I thought! Well, WE think
he's right... just a little bit late in flip-flopping... and still
underestimating the downside risk at 15-20%.
Nonetheless, we aren't sure if this bear market will accelerate from here.
Monetary conditions remain stable. S&P futures ( at this time ) are up several
points in after-hours trading. The problem is that you have everyone ( and
their relatives ) waiting and hoping for a get-out-even rally. For that
reason, we expect any rallies to be brief, and narrow.
We should also note the stability of both the Japanese Nikkei and of gold
stocks on today's action. While not bullish trends, they are acting well. We
should also note that little can be determined on the technical front on a
day like today... as it's almost impossible for technical gauges to keep up
with this rate of decline. The real tell-tale evidence will come during the
next rally attempt. Our bet is that our Breadth Disparity Indexes head
south, and that our Negative Leadership Composite is soon bumping -100.
As for our short positions. It would have been nice to be more aggressively
short, but perhaps not prudently feasible in such a stable monetary climate.
IF tomorrow does accelerate downward, there will likely be no opportunity
( at least over the near-term ) to add to positions. But we believe there's a
good possibility of a short-term rally... and if it unfolds, we will add to
our bear fund positions or consider selling short the S&P SPDRs ( symbol
SPY ) traded on the American Stock Exchange. Selling the SPDRs short is, in
essence, the same as buying Rydex Ursa fund except that trades can be
executed anytime during the day.
SPECIAL UPDATE, 8/5/98
SPECIAL INVESTECH FINANCIAL UPDATE: Wednesday, August 5, 1998
On Tuesday's regular update, I announced that we would update after any
50-pt rally during this week only. The reason is for exactly what unfolded
in today's session... a reflex rally on extremely poor technical strength.
Even during the BEST of today's rally attempts, breadth never came close to
turning positive. Our Breadth Disparity Indexes finished the day down
sharply. Both our Leadership Indexes tumbled; and our Negative Leadership
Composite did drop down to -100... it doesn't go any lower than that.
Wall Street was out in full force today with damage control as noted
analysts reaffirmed their projections for higher prices by year-end. And
Merrill Lynch dumped a big buy program on the market just before the close,
we suspect to push the blue chips to at least a superficial gain.
In our InvesTech Market Analyst equity portfolio, we are establishing an
additional 5% short position by SELLING SHORT the SPDR's ( symbol SPY ) on the
American Stock Exchange. They are called Standard & Poor's Depositary
Receipts; and selling them short is, in essence, the same as buying Rydex
Ursa... EXCEPT the trade can be executed shortly after tomorrow's open
instead of taking the risk of whatever closing price you might get.
We'll be blunt on this: we don't know that this bear is heading straight
down from here. As we said, those on Wall Street with a vested interest are
doing everything possible to ensure it doesn't. AND monetary conditions are
only neutral. In addition, the S&P Futures Premium closed strong today as
trader optimism climbs back on stable footing. But we do believe there has
been a critical shift in investor psychology... instead of blindly buying
the dips... there are a lot of bloodied investors out there who would likely
treat any rally as a selling opportunity. We'll see...
INVESTECH FINANCIAL UPDATE: Saturday, August 8, 1998
As might be expected, Wall Street damage control was out in full force after
Tuesday's 300pt drop. If not for some big ( well-timed ) buy programs,
Wednesday would also have finished with a substantial loss; and seldom have
we seen so many analysts on CNBC ( reaffirming their bullish forecasts ) .
While Japan held fairly steady during Wall Street's turmoil, Asian markets
went back into freefall with our Emerging Markets Index tumbling 7% this
week to new lows. Yet another Fed Governor confirmed that the NEXT move by
the Fed is more likely to be in RAISING interest rates. In any case, Fed
policy and our MEP Monetary Model are truly frozen in limbo for the time
being.
On the technical front, this week saw a lot of deterioration - up until
Friday's bounce ( which occurred on fairly broad breadth ) . Both our
Leadership Indexes fell sharply this week, and our Negative Leadership
Composite tumbled to -100 in DISTRIBUTION ( it doesn't go any lower ) .
Our Breadth Disparity Indexes did bounce- but more due to distortion from
the size of Tuesday's loss than any real turnaround in breadth. We suspect
that over the next week or two, we'll see more rally attempt in the first
real test of the public's buy-on-dip conditioning.
It's still a time for patience. Personally, we believe the bull market's
final highs are in place. But without a visible monetary trigger ( and with
our MEP still positive ) , nothing can be ruled out in a monetary bubble. We
do know that if Asia stabilizes, and Japan starts to recover, investors will
be shocked at how fast the Dollar turns downward, and U.S. bond yields turn
upward.
Our strategy is still to position for the growing probability of a bear
market, and to seek out defensive alternatives. Consequently, we did add a
5% short position in the S&P Depositary Receipts ( SPY ) on the AMEX to our
InvesTech Market Analyst equity portfolio. As discussed in last week's
issue, selling short these SPDR's is equivalent to buying the Rydex Ursa
fund except that the position can be entered or exited any time during the
day. We are considering increasing our Rydex Ursa position in our Mutual
Fund Advisor portfolio.
INVESTECH FINANCIAL UPDATE: Tuesday, August 11, 1998
Global markets, particularly emerging markets, are back to the near-meltdown
status where they were last October. Only this time, the IMF and central
bank resources are wearing thin. There aren't many strings left to pull if
this thing starts accelerating to the downside.
Once again today, like Wednesday of last week, heavy buy programs ( right
before the close ) miraculously turned the market around and cut a -200pt
loss in half. Technically though, it left a lot of carnage ( just like last
week ) . Breadth remained near the worst levels of the day... the Nasdaq and
Russell 2000 Indexes still finished off the equivalent of -200 DJIA pts.
Right now, with a very positive +480 closing tick, we'll likely see what
another rally attempt can muster. Based on today's dismal evidence, it
should only be another opportunity for adding to short positions.
Concerning our other holdings... Japan is actually holding up better than
the vast majority of international markets. There is a vulnerability to
Asia, but Japan still represents one of the best value and contrarian
alternatives out there.
Gold stocks have been hammered, at least initially, by this broad decline.
But insider buying in the gold stocks is heavier than virtually any other
sector on Wall Street. This position, at only 8% of our portfolio, is as
much insurance as a contrarian investment.
Bottomline, the possibility of a crash scenario is rising with each day
that unfolds like the last couple. Yet overall, we should keep in mind that
the monetary picture is still supportive; and crashes usually don't occur
until a failure of a big rally attempt. So stay defensive, remember this is
only the START of a bear market, and don't overleverage short positions just
yet.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:39
HopeFull (JP, why would we want a gold backed dollar?) ID#402148: - The strong currency countires suffered most during the drepression, per Lord Rees Moog.
HB
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:39
Bully Beef (Hold the course matey's....Don't flinch ttttttill you've seen the whites of their eyes.) ID#260119: - When you've sweated every bullet you have? ( you are dead and dehydrated ) When the going gets tough the tough get going...and ...and ...and Frick 'em if they can't take a joke!
Jeepers ...Where could you get this much excitement for one quarter of your life's savings. I've already written it off so they can't hurt me now. DAMN THE TORPEDOES...FULL SPEED...AHEAD!!!!!!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:38
Spock (Poland's gold reserves.) ID#210114: - http://www.gold.org/Pages/Home1.htm
According to the August edition of International
Financial Statistics, published by the IMF,
Poland’s gold reserves rose sharply in June from
0.907 million ounces ( 28.2 tonnes ) to 3.303
million ounces ( 102.7 tonnes ) , an increase of
2.396 million ounces ( 74.5 tonnes ) .
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:35
Spock (A little good news.) ID#210114: - Caracas--Aug 12--The Venezuelan Central Bank said today it had not sold,
nor did it foresee selling, monetary gold that forms part of its
international reserves. By Ben Backwell, Bridge News, Story .15149
Johannesburg--Aug 12--South Africa's Anglo American Platinum Corp.
( Amplats ) , the world's largest platinum producer, lifted annual production
of refined platinum by 9.4% during the financial year ended Jun 30 to
1,898,400 ounces from 1,735,200 the previous year. By Tim Smart,
INet-Bridge, Story .14809
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:35
Spock (Leland) ID#210114: - Yes, I heard of Polish purchases from the WGC syte.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:32
truenorth__A (Fred (Gold Supply/Demand)) ID#189268: - I came to the same conclusion you did many months ago. I am absoultely amazed at the lack of ability of this industry to cooperate, consolidate or arrive at some way of staying in busiiness. Most companies that made money did so because their currencies have fallen in some cases dramitically. The Aus$ was US$.80 last year now at US$0.595, Canada currency likwise fell from US$.72 to 0.6650 and the RAnd has fallen dramitically in the last few months. The Gold mining companies are all reporting profits and higher production, to what end? AS they supposedly strive to survive they are digging their own graves. When they can no longer mine higher grade ore and can no longer get any benefit from a lower currency what then? Do these companies not realize what they are doing? I see no consolidation in this industry, no production cuts and
no sense of urgency. The junior companies will disapper very soon, the mid-size companies will not be able to start up their new mines because they will become uneconimical. If this continues only a handful of large gold companies will be left to sift through the carnage. This does not enhance shareholder value. It might take this dire scenario to evolve before there are drastic changes. Time will tell.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:31
Tantalus Rex (@Haggis_A - Joke for ya 'Delias Gu Brath) ID#295111: - President Clinton's Chastity Band
Bill Clinton ( BC ) was worried about leaving Monica Lewinsky ( ML ) alone with all those horny 'insiders' and close associates at the Whitehouse. Who knows what she might do, talk or what else?
So BC went to the CIA for some advice. After explaining his predicament to a CIA research wiz, the agent said that he'd see if he could come up with something, and asked the president to come back in a week.
A week later BC was back in a research laboratory where the inventor was showing him his latest invention. It was a Chastity Band... except that it had a rather large hole in the most obvious place. This is no good! BC exclaimed, Look at this opening. How is this supposed to protect my mistress?
Ah, Great Great President... just observe. said the CIA researcher as he searched his cluttered work bench until he found what he was looking for. He then selected a strong thick solid oak drum stick.
He then inserted it in the gaping aperture of the Chastity Band whereupon a small guillotine blade came down and cut it neatly in two.
Oh Man, you are a genius! said the grateful BC. Now I can leave and do what I want, knowing that ML is fully protected.
After putting ML in the Chastity Band, the President then set out upon his political endeavors, showing the American people how tough and resliant he is to any potential scandal. The guy has nine lives you know.
A few months passed when he summoned ML for some REAL work at the Whitehouse. He began to sense something was wrong after a quick session with ML.
Immediately he assembled all his associates into his private room and had them drop their trousers for an informal 'short arm' inspection. BC didn't even trust Greenspan or Rubin who were absolutely required to be present.
Sure enough! Each and every one of them was either amputated or damaged in some way. All of them except Greenspan and Rubin.
You wonderful two men, exclaimed BC. You're the best. You guys have made me look real good with all your economic wizardry!!
Only you two among all the rest have been true to me. So true. What is it in my power to grant you? Name it and it is yours!
Both Greenspan and Rubin wanted to respond, unfortunately they were speechless for the first time.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:31
JP (Hopefull-- The reason for gold rising with the US dollar simultaneous is safety ) ID#253153: - I have maintained for a long time that we must have financial panic if the dollar is to be backed by gold. Rising dollar and gold price will create these conditions for a panic within the next 6-10 weeks. Only a depression will force the US government to back our currency with gold.
The dollar will rise until the financial panic takes place and then will begin to decline. Gold anticipating financial panic will rise because money will seek it's safety. Also, after the panic, the gold price movement upward will accelerate because the market will begin to anticipate a gold backed US dollar.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:28
The Hatt (Lip Service By Japan! Yen Now At 1.46.55) ID#294232: - If japan was serious about defending its currency why would they disclose it to the world. After all the potential for a massive short squeeze seemed likely with surprise intervention which would limit the reserves needed to move the yen back to comfortable levels. Just more stall tactics from a Nation who believes that they can export their economy back to good health.... The world needs to wake up to the fact that we are on the edge of the most serious worldwide currency crisis in history and it could have a dramatic effect on all of us. The Dow acted like the Asian problems were over and my prediction for tommorow will be that this move today will prove to be nothing more than a bear trap. Gold will continue to lose strength until the world comes to grip with the seriousness of this problem... When some of these countries hit the wall as Russia has just done the USA will experience first hand the meaning of monetary inflation... At that point Gold will become very scarce and very valuable. This will not be a pretty picture for anyone but it will be a little easier to deal with for those that own gold..... The paper fiat is beginning to smoke which will only spread to those stock certs on the Dow!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:24
aurophile (Leland) ID#201109: - I have no knowledge of the Polish Central Bank purchase, but I recently visited there for the first time and was very impressed with what is happening in many senses. They seem to be doing many things right.
Curiously, despite the enormous truck traffic east and westbound, one saw very few Russian-based trucks on the roads.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:22
Tantalus Rex (@Fred) ID#295111: - Well, I made the assumption that most of your wealth was in the Gold Fund. Maybe you use a Gold Fund for petty cash like I do?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:22
Bully Beef (This feels like deja vu all over again but...) ID#260119: - I think the market in this scenario is now to make a pretty good run up as the buy the dips crowd purchases what they suppose are good deals.This will increase the cow jones significantly. Join in and buy for a couple of weeks. Will you know when to get out? I wouldn't. You roll first.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:19
HopeFull (JP, i can see the USD part, but why gold too?! Thanks.) ID#402148: -
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:19
Spock (Does a bear sh*t in the woods) ID#210114: -
New York--Aug 12--Gold futures slipped to a new contract low after funds
pushed prices into sell-stops, while silver saw an 8-week low. Many think
the yen's downside momentum against the US dollar has only paused, not
halted, so precious metals aren't out of the woods yet. By Melanie Lovatt,
Bridge News, Story .2333
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:17
goldfevr (Serb atrocities aga. Kosovo; see the LA Times article, of 8/12/98) ID#434108: - ( my opinion, only: )
another event or two
( or two million )
in humanity's dance of death
in humanity's inhumanity
brought down
upon itself
another festering
spiraling
series of events unfolding...
another step in the greed & fear
of the guillotine's march
another pathetic & unnecessary chapter of
war, mayhem, rape & ruin
the next sequel
in civilization's apparently determined,
denial-ridden
yet inexorable advance ... toward:
over-flowing ethnic & religious & regional warfare,
in the Balkans;
and as it spreads,
potentially igniting
and uniting
the entire Moslem world
Apparently,
humanity & civilization
will continue to flirt with .... abandoning
their humanity
surrendering their civilized values and ways
spiraling down
into an abyss of mongrelizing war, fear & hatred
embracing
more and more
exclusively
only evil days
Would it - ?
would we - ?
-- the universe of all humanity,
go so far, as to
flirt.... with WW III ? !
We shall see.....
( or will we )
?
...................
The above words/comments, are strictly my own opinion,
and interpretation,
of the growing possibility,
of unfolding world events.
Sincerely,
David B. Macrory
----------------------------
I express them here,
with kitco.com discussion board participants,
as I was motivated to, after reading an article
-- Self-Inspired Panic Clears Kosovo Villages,
by Richard Boudreaux, Tmes Staff Writer --
from the referenced 8/12/98 issue of the LA Times.
I suggest & recommend visiting:
http://www.latimes.com
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:17
Tantalus Rex (@Fred) ID#295111: -
I feel sorry for you Fred!!! Selling half your stake in your Gold/PM Mutual fund was a mistake UNLESS you needed the cash for
1. to pay your bills/live
2. to buy physical Gold
3. to buy high quality Gold Mining stocks
At the present time, investing in gold is the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Now is the time to buy!!!
Many goldbugs here are pissed off cause gold has dropped in price and I was too and rightly so!!!!!! BUT I'VE CHANGED. I like the low POG!!!!!!!
I love the low POG cause I can now buy more gold than ever. ( In a way, I'm like the Central Bankers who've fixed the POG low ) If you can't beat em, join em I say.
Sorry to say so, but you'll regret what you've done soon enough. I truly feel sorry for you.
May I ask, what are you doing with your cash?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:17
Spock (Beaming In............) ID#210114: -
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:14
Squirrel (PH in LA - both your and my last posts assumed that) ID#280214: - the POG rose independently of everything else. That the price of flour remained at US$10 or so per 50lbs and that hourly wages stayed more or less in the same range as they are now. Or at least the prices of flour and wages would'nt skyrocket like the POG.
If Gold had to cover all the world's M3 or even M2 or M1 then the POG would indeed have to go to US$30,000 - in 1998 dollars. A 10-grain coin would then be worth US$600 or so {or about a 6 months of food for a frugal squirrel}. If the POG went that high due to inflation then miners would be making over US$1000 per hour and convenience store clerks would be making a few hundred per hour.
I know. Now I am exaggerating with those wheelbarrows again.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:10
Silverbaron (Squirrel) ID#288295: -
If the USG nationalizes gold mines, I'm switching to investing in uranium mines. The long term supply-demand fundamentals are better than for gold, and everyone - I mean everyone - is looking the other way.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:03
JP (Foreign exchange controls imposed in Russia) ID#253153: - Someone on this forum posted a story about Russia limiting Forex internal intervention to $200 M per day because they are running out of reserves.
This is the beginning of TRADE WAR. Limiting free movement of capital will accelerate the outflow of money out of Russia . Other countries will now impose exchange controls on their own currencies with the results that THE DOLLAR AND GOLD WILL RISE AT THE SAME TIME.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 20:01
Fred (Gold Supply & Demand) ID#341234: - When I originally bought into a gold mutual fund 9 months ago it was because I liked the supply/demand fundamentals. Demand was at 4000 tonnes/year, and mining supply was about 2400 tonnes/year. With the price drop, I figured supply would be cut even more. Man, was I wrong.
I have finally realized that the reasons I had for buying gold stocks no longer exist, and my assumption that supply would be cut was false. Supply is not being cut at all; mining companies are producing more gold than ever. I am convinced that they will continue to flood the market with gold no matter how low the price is. Exploration has been cut, but that may not have an affect for years, when the mining companies finally mine themselves out of business. Gold mining companies are run more like PBS than real businesses. They are non-profit and providing a public service.
In countries where the currency is losing its value, like Russia, South Africa, Canada, and Australia, mining companies are able to cut their mining costs and pretend they are profitable. I say pretend because they keep reporting that idiotic “cash cost” of mining. Why not just put up a big sign that says, “gold is only worth $200 because that is our ‘cash cost’”. With cash cost at 200 and spot at 280 compared to 360 a year ago, the ingenious mining companies figure that all they have to do is mine twice as much gold to make the same profit. Gold mining companies are digging their own graves ( good metaphor ) .
On the demand side, the same currency devaluations that are increasing supply are choking demand. Even though many of us look at gold as an investment, most of it is used for jewelry, a luxury item. Financial turmoil virtually eliminates demand for luxury items like jewelry, even in gold loving lands such as India. Eagle sales may be up, but if they sell a million Eagles, that is only 31 tonnes. That is barely a drop in the bucket compared to what is being mined.
Even though gold has a reputation of being good in a crisis, the developing global financial crisis will not be good for gold mining companies. The smart money is getting out of gold stocks as well as the market in general. Gold bullion, on the other hand, will always be a store of wealth. A severe global deflationary collapse could diminish much of its value, but even then, it will only drop to the point where it is no longer worth mining.
For the above reasons, I sold half of my gold mutual fund today. I kept half because following the gold market is a lot of fun, and this analysis could be completely wrong. I do still own plenty of physical and plan to buy more. I hope for the rest of you gold bugs that my thoughts are a good contrary indicator.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:58
Squirrel (Nationalization of Gold mines - some considerations) ID#280214: - I agree that the government wouldn't want people mining money at a real honest to gosh US$ four or five digits - equivalent to a month's or a year's working man's wages. But you can bet the miners would resurrect all the old methods of high-grading. The security at Gold mines would be like what I understand diamond mines to have. Would the government outlaw gold panning in one's backyard? Many backyards hereabouts are old mine dumps. The government may have to outlaw Gold possession altogether. There may be a black market in Gold - if there is a demand for it {which, unlike cocaine, you can't snort to get high}.
Back to the realities of such a high POG. I asked a local ex-miner about what would happen hereabouts if Gold got over US$1000/ounce. {local miners and ex-miners watch the POG}. First I had to to get past his firm emphatic belief that there is no way it would get that high and stay there. He figures that when economies around the world get worse Asia and other countries will be selling their Gold to survive. {if that doesn't happen then at least Gold consuming countries won't be buying as much}.
So what was his answer to a POG over US$1000? He and all his friends and relatives would be panning for Gold - in his backyard among other places! That heap leaching operations would spring up all over the place. That ASARCO would open-pit the old mining district. I asked him if he would quit his present job to mine {some contract miners make over $100,000 per year}. No, he wouldn't because he feels Gold won't stay that high for long. {These guys have seen the markets go up and down so many times they are tired of being hired on and laid off and moving all over the country for work - they now have families to consider}. He would not want to quit a good job to work for a year or two and be laid off again when the price of Gold dropped back down.
But what do guys like him know? They're only hard rock miners for Gold and other metals. They even buy groceries with folding fiat money! What good is their opinion regarding our government and our economy? Maybe guys like him have something to be listened to - they built this industry and this nation {and nearly all of 'em have plenty of guns & ammo}!
I don't know, maybe nationalization could be pulled off. Since regular folks don't need to own it any more {Goldbugs don't count since we know they're nuts}, then there would be no hue and cry if they outlawed the private ownership of Gold and nationalized the Gold mines {since most of the Gold is byproducts of base metal mining, they would have to nationalize copper, zinc, lead, and most of the other hard rock mines too.
Want to see a bunch of angry miners armed with AR15's and 45's? It wouldn't be the first time the army was called in against miners hereabouts. Last time the miners lost. Any bets on this time?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:57
Leland ((All)) ID#316193: - Click on the URL below. Then click on N.Y. Precious Metals
Review. Then read, Central Bank of Poland added 2.4 million
ounces in May.
Has anyone heard of this?
-----------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.crbindex.com/index.htm
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:57
Tantalus Rex (@dirt) ID#295111: - Then I recommend this following course of action for YOU...
STICK WITH dirt DIRT!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:55
dirt (Just talk) ID#268404: - You see what happened when there was no actual large purchases of the Yen, just talk won't get it. Rubin if you don't want a world wide collapse, you better sell lots of $US....
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:51
dirt (gold is a pure commodity) ID#268404: - Won't go to no $30,000. Lots of gold in grown and CB vaults. Not a very necessary commodity at that. I wonder if Kaplan will still be bullish on gold at $200 ?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:49
JP (A Russian default or devaluation will increase the likelihood of a Chinese devaluation) ID#253153: - The Chinese Yuan will fall like a rock in the event of Russian default or devluation and it will trigger further devaluations in Asia by all countries. Russian devaluation or reneg will unleash a competitive source of cheap labor and basic materials that will accelerate the the currencies war.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:45
sharefin (//Scoping Out The Y2k Enemy: Financial Asset Protection//) ID#284255: - By Randy Flink
I am a financial consultant by trade. No, not a stockbroker working
for commissions who calls himself a financial consultant, but a fee
based financial consultant who gets paid by the hour or week or month
for constructing and administering financial game plans for
individuals and their small businesses. This includes cash flow
management, retirement planning, investment portfolio management, and
especially wealth protection. Over a year ago, Y2k appeared on my
radar screen as a slow-moving object headed in the general direction
of my client's financial assets. Now, the radar screen gives a more
precise warning. Y2k has picked up considerable speed and is now
heading straight for my client's financial assets and general welfare.
I need act now in order to lessen the impact of a likely collision.
So do you.
Preparing your financial assets for Y2k is like preparing for battle
on foreign soil. You know the enemy will be out there waiting for you
but you aren't certain where he will hide, what he will look like and
what tactics and weapons he will deploy against you. In many cases,
you won't be able to pinpoint the enemy until he shoots first, and the
consequences could be fatal. So, you need to anticipate many things.
At the end of the day, your success in coping with the enemy will be
based in large measure on your innate skills combined with your degree
of preparation, but there will always be an element of luck and timing.
With Y2k, we have a host of potential financial and economic enemies.
Here are the major ones:
* Spiraling deflation - usually brought on by serious recession or
depression, which could be the end product of Y2k disruptions. The
best way to fight this enemy is with highly liquid and safe assets
such as banknotes and US Treasury bills and notes, and with a minimum
of indebtedness.
* Hyperinflation - caused by severe commodity shortages, a likely
result of Y2k disruptions, and/or massive increases in the money
supply as a means to end recession or depression. The best way to
fight this enemy is with precious metals bullion, stockpiles of
essential commodities and 13-week US Treasury bills, which can be
rolled over at frequent intervals to capture rising interest rates.
* Simultaneous deflation and inflation ( like fighting Rambo ) - the
worst case Y2k scenario, where a developing recession or depression is
accompanied by severe commodity shortages. The best way to fight
these dual enemies is with all of the above.
* Government price controls - a way for Uncle Sam to keep a lid on
hyper-inflation induced by severe commodity shortages potentially
caused by Y2k. However, this impedes capital formation and delays the
inevitable recovery by diminishing the financial incentive to produce
scarce commodities. The best way to fight this enemy is with
stockpiles of essential commodities because price controls imply
prolonged shortages.
* Government rationing - often used to thwart panic and stockpiling
during times of anticipated or actual shortages. This could occur
pre-Y2k and post-Y2k depending on the nature and scope of the
situation, and usually gives rise to a thriving black market economy
and hyper-inflation which does not show up in the official statistics.
The best way to fight this enemy is with banknotes, precious metals
bullion and stockpiles of essential commodities.
* Bank failures - one of the many possible Y2k outcomes should things
get really out of hand. This is a prelude to a depression. The best
way to fight this enemy is with highly liquid and safe assets such as
banknotes, US Treasury bills and precious metals bullion.
* Widespread unemployment - a likely outcome of a Y2k-induced
recession. The lost job may be your own. The best way to fight this
enemy is with very little indebtedness and a high degree of
self-sufficiency since it could be a long time before normal
employment conditions return.
As you can see, each of these enemies will warrant a different degree
of preparation. Since we cannot tell in advance which of these
enemies will appear on the horizon, we must take them all into account
as we prepare for Y2k. For a guideline on how to safeguard your
financial assets from Y2k disruptions, see the Y2k Personal Insurance
Plan ( last updated on 8-6-98 with information on the reduced
investment minimums for US Treasury bills and shorter-term notes ) .
The Y2k Personal Insurance Plan by Randy Flink can be found on the Y2k
Weatherman Archive at:
http://y2kwatch.com/showart.php3?idx=81&rtn=y2kman.htm
---
//Y2k Weatherman Comments//
In Randy's Y2k Personal Insurance Plan, it is strongly advised that
you get your financial house in order by March 31, 1999. This means
have your financial plan for Y2k completed by 3-31-1999, not just
started. This does not mean that you will not make any modifications
after 3-31-1999, but it does mean that if you have plans now to move
to cash positions or reallocate your portfolio, you need to have this
fully executed before 3-31-1999. More on this in Randy's next report.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:43
Donald (Mexican peso closes at new historic low) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980812/mexico_pes_1.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:35
Silverbaron (mozel) ID#273432: -
@USG
Spot on. I like the way you think on this.
Unfortunately, the depression solution as a means
of USG self-preservation would cause a de facto
destruction of the bond market ( and
coincidentally, the greenback ) because of a
precipitous shortfall in revenue and an
explosion of the debt service requirements, especially contingent liabilities.
USG = Dead duck, either way.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:31
aurophile (Mozel) ID#201109: - What a pleasure to read such a well-reasoned and well-written analysis.
On the subject of default risk premiums, Steve Silver has been cautioning those with adjustable rate mortages to lock in rates now as he fears default premiums in a major slowdown could grow to 3-4% on mortgages even in the absence of an underlying rate increase.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:28
JP (Russia total foreign debt is estimated to be around $150 B) ID#253153: - If Russia defaults or devalue, Western Europe will suffer the most because of massive refugees influx as well as capital outflow to countries with gold backed currencies, namely the Swiss Franc.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:25
skinny (Flash) ID#28994: - The repatration of the gold to the holocast survivors has been in the making for sometime. One of the most powerfull man in the world Edgar M. Bronfman is behind this project.
The actual project is operated by the World Jewish Restitution Organization.
Read the book The making of A Jew... By Edgar M. Bronfman ISBN 0-339-14220-7 . Bronfman is from the Seagram empire, another good book worth reading is the Bronfman Dynasty,I am sure if anyone reads these two books they would more understand the power some people have worldwide.
The price of gold will stay low until the 1.5 billion has been restituted.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:20
Tamerlane__A (All re: Martin Armstrong & Ag,Au) ID#372276: - Was just over at Princeton Eco. researching. He says:--
Uzbekistan has already sold 120 tones of its
silver reserves just recently, which has contributed to the
recent decline. More is likely to appear since Uzbekistan
is a net silver producer. Russian banks are now allowed to
sell precious metals directly under the new deregulation
and the first sales are starting to hit the marketplace.
Russia itself has yet another $4 billion in gold and 300+
million ounces of silver, according to our sources. The
more deflationary things appear in emerging markets, the
more selling of precious metals we expect to see over the
next two months.
Some have alluded to possible indiscretions regarding Armstrongs objective analytical integrity concerning Silver. In part because Armstrong was caught with a large short position in Silver when it zoomed up to $7? I would assume he has had ample time to cover. What do you lads think about his take & his 'sources in Uzbekistan'?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:19
Spud Master (@JP & Russkie default....) ID#28586: - but, but, but what about all those billions of dollars we paid them fer the International Space Station?!
As my good Brother in Ada software engineering EB would say, looking at his Disney stock:
...oh ... my ...
Spud: Impeach the lying conartist scum.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:18
moa__A (Greetings ) ID#281175: - the old, the new, the eternal.
Of these we will pose, ponder and pontificate.
Good as gold!
Is gold good?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:16
mozel (@Lease Rate @USG) ID#153102: - @Lease Rate It seems to me the lease rate affects apparent gold supply in a way that parallels the way the Fed Funds rate affects what they call money supply, which is a misnomer for credit use.
Lowering the Fed Funds rate increases the spread between the interest gained on a loan to you and the interest paid to the Fed for the funds and a lower final rate to you causes credit to flow from the Fed to the banks and thence from pocket to pocket. Assuming a general willingness to borrow exists, of course. I can well remember how by the 60's the old attitude of stay out of debt had been replaced with a new attitude that was convinced that going into debt was smart because people thought they were going to pay back with devalued units of credit. They thought this because they were told the inflation rate was higher than the interest rate. In fact, the reported inflation rate, not the Fed Funds rate, is the real tool for stimulating mass credit demand. Now the unmanageable thing is that even though Government has been reporting no inflation, the mass cultural attitude change toward borrowing persists. Mass or crowd behavior is irrational.
When you get down to it a vital credibility necessary for Government running on credit to operate is sufficient credibility that if Government says inflation is up, people will believe it, and start spending and borrowing to spend. HeeHawing stables of subsidized economist and talking head jackasses that parrot and discuss and analyze the objective inflation report assist. The other essential credibility factor for Government running on credit is that its ability to collect tax to pay interest is unquestioned. That is why tax payment protest is anathema to government running on credit. A really severe bunch of tax collectors is equally essential ultimately to keeping up the fiction that the Government is running on something other than make believe moeny, i.e. credit, the allocation of which it absolutely controls. Above all, people have to believe they are really paying real money for taxes. As soon as they realize they are not, some of them will realize they are slave labor and some of them will start saying instead of us paying taxes, just have Government credit its account without taking any from our credit account. Or, better yet, just put credits in our account so we don't have to do depend on the productivity of what we do for our living and can study stars, torment primates with pointless experiments, or whatever, according to our personal preference. The key is pumping up public opinion to approve of what you want credits for. Or rebating to politicians.
Credit may be usefully put into the categories of accountable credit and unaccountable credit, the latter being what government lends to itself.
In essence, the more accountable credit that is used the more future purchases are made today. The more that credit is shunned, the greater the number of purchases that are deferred until the funds are saved. Now the aggregate number of purchases equates to what they call economic growth. Some of this growth is from saved credits and some of it is from borrowed credits. The latter is apparent growth because it is future purchases shifted to the present.
But, there is another factor controlling credit use and that is creditworthiness. Both a lower rate of interest and lower qualifications for borrowing influence credit use. ? A little thinking through will convince you that over time credit allocation tends to favor those credit risks which cannot be refused regardless of their ability or willingness to repay. At the extreme, who in China's government will refuse a loan application from the PLA for one of its enterprises ?
Therefore, loan defaults, which create black holes in the credit universe, are cancellations of future purchases. So, Japan, Inc. has cancellations of $1 Trillion + of future purchases in its present economy. Globally, future purchases are being cancelled at an accellerating rate. Loan defaults also reduce the credit population. An uncreditworthy person, corporation, or country might just as well never have been born or created when considered from a viewpoint within the credit economy. The credit population of Japan, Inc., Russia, Inc., Indonesia, Inc., South Korea, Inc, etc. is shrinking every day. Yhis is more accurately termed the greenback credit population.
People say the Fed can lower rates. But, do they know what portion of the bank system's spread is preallocated to servicing past cancellations of future purchases, e.g. defaulted S&L loans ? Remember that opposite the gold lease rate is the T-Bill or like note rate. The two rates together determine the forward rate or gold borrow incentive rate. The T-Bill or Bond is the intersection of the yen carry and the gold carry. Because there is this intersection, yen and gold track.
Default in the gold lease economy will create a black hole in supply there and a black hole in demand in the credit economy. It will be a cancellation of future production, the product and earnings from which have already been used up and spent. Whammy, whammy.
Flipping the gold lease economy from greenbacks to Euros resolves all difficulties, however, because gold is a Euro reserve whereas there is no banking connection whatsoever between gold and the greenback.
@USG For its own preservation, USG would destroy the globe. As an organism on the planet, it regards its existence as the prime directive. So, if the choice is world depression or a threat to the existence of USG, there is no question what course it will follow. This is an important reason why the world cannot live with the greenback as its reserve currency.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:15
aurophile (Selby) ID#201109: - I show NY low cash close of $278.70 on 1/9/98.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:15
Donald (Serbs in massive attack on Kosovo; NATO readies air strikes.) ID#26793: - http://nt.excite.com/news/r/980812/15/news-kosovo
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:14
JP (Have you noticed that : The dollar and gold are up tonight against the Yen and D Mark) ID#253153: - It may indicate imminent default or devaluation by Russia. West German banks are owed almost $40 B by Russia. Japanes banks are owed about $ 20 B and American banks are in for $10 B.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:14
James (JP@Are you serious--POG 400 & long bond @ 2.5%?) ID#252150: - Would'nt a 2.5% long bond indicate that inflation is dead & investors still have confidence in the $U.S.? Hardly a harbinger of a higher POG.
As for the SF increasing. If the SF starts to increase the Swiss will do what they have done in the past--threaten to sell AU. They rely much more than the U.S. on exports & cannot abide an overvalued, uncompetitive currency.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:09
Donald (Bank of Canada has spent $1billion on C$ support since Friday.) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980812/canada_dol_3.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:08
Spud Master (@Silverbaron & COMEX drawdown...) ID#28586: - AHHH.... an inarticulate sound of pleasure...
Thanks for the post, Baron : )
The shorts just dived for their foxholes as the first round goes overhead....
Spud
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:07
Silverbaron (WOOOOPS) ID#273432: -
Make that $25 Million; not 250.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:05
Donald (Chile fears Central Bank intervention to support the peso.) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980812/chile_stoc_2.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:04
Silverbaron (JUST IN CASE YOU MISSED IT) ID#273432: -
Somebody removed $250,000,000 ( roughly ) from COMEX gold stocks today...Hmmmmm.....Hey Kevan - was it you?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 19:03
DEJ (Recent low for gold.) ID#269191: - I believe the low in January was $278.30.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:59
Donald (Argentina making plans to repatriate $9.52 billion from Deutsche Bank NY to boost reserves.) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980812/argentina__1.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:57
PH in LA (Squirrel: Lettin' the Good Times Roll!) ID#225408: - Squirrel:
Re: Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:32
If Gold goes to US$30,000 an ounce - and stays there for a few years -you can bet your sweet bippy that the miners will be making at least US$1000 per hour. Get out the wheelbarrows{which, BTW, would cost several thousand dollars!}
Your words are well-taken, especially among those unable and/or unwilling to comprehend that $30,000/oz gold will come about only through a very far-reaching change in our financial landscape. At those prices, and in such a world, governments might very well feel justified in declaring the mining of money illegal and nationalize gold reserves found within their national territories. Miners would have to work for an hourly wage just like everyone else. If some felt that their efforts should somehow be tied to the price of gold, others could probably be found with more flexibility of thought that would quickly be hired to replace them.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:54
Donald (Swiss reach agreement on Holocaust payment) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980812/swiss_holo_1.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:48
Flash (Swiss agree to pay 1.25B to holocast survivors) ID#301318: -
Anyone have any details on how this may effect the POG?
Payments are to start in 90 days...
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:48
JTF (Great to have you back!) ID#57232: - Haggis: We missed your refreshing posts! I don't know what is about to happen and when in the markets, but it certainly will not be pleasant. Gold will eventually rise in value relative to other things of thought to be value, regardless of whether we have debt collapse, deflation, or inflation. But it will take its own time in doing so.
I think you have something with the Greenies. Perhaps we should point out to Al Gore that we are wasting trees at a prodigious rate when we print dollars. Gold as a currency is recyclable indefinitively -- so it is a far better choice than dollars. He might actually buy it if WJC or AG is not around. If anyone responds that we are moving to plastic/electronic money anyway, all we need to do is alert them to the mountain of dollars the Federal Government has stashed away somewhere. If we are moving to electronic money and we will have no fiat currency problems, why bother printing dollars?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:48
Donald (Pegasus gold news) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980812/pegasus_zo_1.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:48
Silverbaron (COMEX totals) ID#273432: -
Gold: 1,084,131 ( - 89,598 ) OHMY!
Silver 78,883,310 ( - 252,334 )
I can't wait to see the breakdown of registered and elligibles on gold, as at last look there was only about 10% in the elligible category.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:41
JP (Nostradamus says : As Russia goes, so goes the West. (The latest interpretation)) ID#253153: - No bail out package will succeed in bailing out Russia. The IMF bailout
package is good money thrown at bad money.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:37
John B__A (Vronsky) ID#17470: - Your question was Who the hell is selling…? More importantly, who the hell is buying!!
Isn't it possible that a single floor trader could be churning buy and sell orders all day just to scalp a penny or two on each trade?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:34
Cage Rattler (Russia - how much worse can it get !) ID#33182: - President Clinton has discussed the world economy with his advisors. No doubt the focus of these talks will be on Russia. Since January, the RTS-index has lost 3/4 of its value. This week the market lost 20% of its value. Yields on short-term ruble denominated debt are in the neighbor hood of 150%. To put it mildly, things are coming undone and individuals are reaching for the exscape hatches. Many foreigners over the last month have stopped hold Russian GKO bonds. The desire of foreigners to leave theRussian market and Russian banks to hold hard currencies have put tremendous pressure on the ruble, which breached the government protected currency trading band today. Over the past few weeks, a billion in U.S. currency every week has been used to keep the band in place. The governement has announced it can no longer afford to spend so much on FOREX intervention. There is self imposed limit of $200 million per day. How much longer will the band hold?
( c ) Currency Trading News
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:33
Haggis__A (Cage Rattler (World Equity Summary)....) ID#39862: -
Impressive figures...... does this mean that they will change tomorrow ?!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:33
Haggis__A (Cage Rattler (World Equity Summary)....) ID#39862: -
Impressive figures...... does this mean that they will change tomorrow ?!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:32
John B__A (APH Posting?) ID#17470: - Perhaps I've missed his postings lately. Does anyone recall when he last posted? Thanks much,
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:32
Haggis__A (One for the road.............) ID#39862: -
It was an Irishman who invented the poilet seat......
And, it was a Scotsman who figured out to put a hole in it !
Aussie gold still hanging in there at AU$ 480.....
Apply the Tasmanian principal to Wall Street....in the beginning God made heaven and earth, Tasmania was an offcut..... for example, what is a Tasmanian's idea of foreplay: Hey Mum, WAKE UP!
Have a nice day.....
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:29
CoolJing (canadian dollar) ID#343171: - Just figured out why the Canadian dollar has been so weak, aside from the strong US$: they are going to go broke on the Mountie redemptions for $310US when gold bottoms at $250
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:29
Cage Rattler (World Equity Summary) ID#33182: - IDEA's technical analysts bring you in-depth two to three-day forecasts for the world's major stock market indices.
USA ( Dow Jones industrial average )
Outlook -- negative
The Dow Jones industrial average finished at 8,462.85 on Tuesday. Support levels are at 8,300 and at 8,140. In the longer-term, the Dow should move toward 8,000. InterMoney sees the Dow falling as low as 7,000 by October.
UK ( FTSE-100 )
Outlook -- negative
The FTSE-100 September futures contract finished at 5,485. Falls to 5,455, 5,400 and 5,373 are likely. ( Resistance is at 5,523, 5,548 and 5,573. )
Japan ( Nikkei-225 )
Outlook -- negative
The Nikkei-225 share average finished at 15,378.97. Tokyo stocks could slide to 15,270, 15,122 and 14,977. ( Resistance is at 15,534, 15,793 and 15,885 ) .
Germany ( Dax-30 )
Outlook -- positive
The Dax-30 September futures contract closed at 5,413. It could rise to 5,465, 5,502 and 5,505. ( Support is at 5,386, 5,359 and 5,326. )
France ( Cac-40 )
Outlook -- positive
The Cac-40 September futures contract ended at 3,960. A recovery to 3,995 and 4,031 is possible from where more falls are likely. ( Support is at 3,904, 3,870 and 3,840. )
Hong Kong ( Hang Seng )
Outlook -- negative
The Hang Seng share index closed at 6,859.48. Technical analysis suggests the Hang Seng will weaken to 6,708, 6,250 and 6,000 in coming sessions. ( Resistance is at 7,100, 7,254 and 7,382. )
Australia ( All Ordinaries )
Outlook -- positive
The All Ordinaries index finished at 2,551.0. Look for Australian issues to rise to 2,561, 2,575 and 2,597. ( Support is at 2,526, 2,511 and 2,496. )
© 1998 Independent Economic Analysis ( Holdings ) Pty Limited
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:23
Haggis__A (Aye, it's those Americans AGAIN.............) ID#39862: -
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980812/markets_pr_2.html
....the cause and the problem...........
Very strong IRISH influence in America.... how do you count bank notes...
One, two, three, four, foive, another, another, an....!!!
The Irish are very good at inventing a cure for which there is no known disease.....very applicable to Wall Street.....
Those boms on Africa.....spin, spin, spin.....
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:13
Selby (Gold's Low) ID#286230: - What was the recent low for spot gold?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:13
Donald (The numbers below are all 233 day moving averages) ID#26793: - Spot gold $300.98; spot silver $5.64; XAU 78.91; Dow/Gold Ratio 28.02
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:11
Donald (The numbers below are all 144 day moving averages) ID#26793: - Spot gold $298.82; spot silver $5.89; XAU 75.15
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:09
Donald (@ Kitco) ID#26793: - Gold/Silver Ratio = 55.06. The 144 day moving average is 50.80
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:07
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793: - XAU/Spot Ratio = .213. The 144 day moving average is .253. There have been 11 occasions where the XAU closed in the 60.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, today is #11. The #1 ranking is the same as last night.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:07
Haggis__A (To all...........) ID#39862: -
Does anyone want to purchase a gold mine...... NOT going cheap.....
email: haggis@ludin.com.au
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:05
zeke (@Silverbaron) ID#25257: - Good site on hedging. Hope to hear from rhody on Top Ten unhedged gold mining stocks.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:04
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793: - Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.22. The 144 day moving average is 29.52
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:03
Haggis__A (JTF (Gold Trading volume at LBMA -- actually it is low relative to US dollar trading)) ID#39862: -
There are alot of dollars in the world..........hence the vanishing forrests ( I am not a Greenie ) .
Not so much gold.......the only issue saving the WA mining scence at this time is the low Aussie Dollar.......long may it stay low until we have a US Market correction.......which I can only see happening early next year.
Wall street is rallying, the DOW is up.....spin, spin, spin spin....
You chaps don't even play Cricket, neither do Scots for that matter !
Waiting for the gold price to turn.... it like being an Irishman who, with his bride, sat up ALL night, waiting for his sexual relations to arrive !?
Och aye the noooooooooooo.........
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:03
Gold Dancer (I repeat: The US Treasury OWNS the gold) ID#430221: - What ever showns on the books of the Fed is just a lease
agreement from the Treasury. I do believe this is true. The rest
follows.
Thanks, GD
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:01
JP (Part 2---My consultation with the Oracle) ID#253153: - 1.All none gold backed currencies to become worthless. That includes the Ruble, the Yen ,South American currencies, Chinese Yuan ,etc.
The Swiss Franc to start rising with the Dow below 7000.
2. Oil price to decline to 8 bbl by Q3,99.
3. Real estate prices to decline by 15-20% in 1999.
4.US budget deficit to rise from surplus to $200 B by the end of 1999.
5. Us consumers to stop spending money on luxuries.
6. The US to repeat the Japanese experience over the last 8 years.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 18:01
Squirrel (Gagnrad - good question as to what wages to compare POG to.) ID#280214: - Notice that in my 16:07 and 14:32 I compared the POG to wages of hard rock miners or plumbers and not to the dole given to bureaucrats and drug addicts {both of which may apply to some like the coward erect and his minions}.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 17:57
Tantalus Rex (@Gold Dancer) ID#295111: - Good reply to Professor. Signing off to have some dinner. Ciao for now.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 17:55
Haggis__A (Tantalus Rex (@vronsky LBMA SNOWJOB) .........) ID#39862: -
I say old chap...................
At long last somebody realizes that the LBMA and associates is a GOLD CARTEL...... a closed market
You have got to be a Member of the Club.........
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 17:53
Gold Dancer (Vronsky) ID#430221: - I know this thought is not popular but as to who is buying I say
the governments are buying ( actually a lease back ) from the
central banks. The US central bank does not own any gold, if it shows
on their books it was a lease transaction from the Treasury of the
US at probably very low interest.
I maintain that the governments are leasing back the gold from
their Central Banks. It is just a paper trade but it gets good press
and keeps the price down. The central banks know that they have 'gone the
limit' as far as the debt monster goes and are now being forced to
give the gold back to their respective governments so when the s***
hits the fan they have nothing to give to anyone. Up steps the
Treasury and according to the constitution creates some form of
honest money.
I think this is going on all over the Western World. The Euro I don't
think can make it, what with Y2K etc. It also may be just a cover.
The military of any country would never let their governments get
rid of the gold or be forced to get rid of it in a panic.
Who is buying all this gold? That is the question. 8000 tons short
in the market? I doubt it. The lease is just a paper lease back of
something done a long time ago. I cannot prove any of this. It may
all be untrue. But it does explain what is going on in a more
realistic way than some of the other things I have heard.
We will watch this together, Yes?
Thanks, GD
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 17:53
Tantalus Rex (@vronsky - LBMA SNowJob) ID#295111: - However, dear Professor V., I'll have to read the REDBARRON article at a later time... much of your stuff from reputable authors over the world at 'golden-eagle' is great reading.
Keep up the good work!.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 17:46
Tantalus Rex (@vronsky LBMA SNOWJOB) ID#295111: -
The only explanation I can find is that gold is traded among friends at no profit to anyone. ie collusion. The goal is to drive the POG down. It's donw this way.......
For example. I buy tonnes of gold from you. Then you buy the tonnes back from me at a lower price. Then I buy back from you at an even lower price and so on and so on and so on.
At the end of the year. I give you my profits to square off your losses and we still have what we had at the start EXCEPT!!!!!! the POG is lower.
Note, that the reverse is true, buying at a higher price each time ups the POG.
This kind of trading is illegal, but when it's done by a bunch of BIG BIG players like central banks...who can fight them.
The example I gave you involed 2 players to make it simple, but this collusion can be played by many parties.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 17:45
JTF (Erratum) ID#57232: - All: What AG fears --
1 ) Deflation/depression
2 ) Inflation
3 ) Sudden loss of confidence in fiat currency ( ie, US dollar ) .
I think he fears inflation the least. It will be really hard to tiptoe through the economic minefields and avoid 1, 2, and 3. Hard to imagine that evil inflation as the least frightening of what may head our way in the USA.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 17:39
JTF (Gold Trading volume at LBMA -- actually it is low relative to US dollar trading) ID#57232: - Vronsky: There is another side of the coin. The total daily gold trading volume is a tiny fraction of the daily US dollar trading volume. That means to me that most people do not consider gold as a necessary currency for trade. Just wait until something happens to the US dollar markets, and gold trading as a currency starts to move up. Since there is not enough physical gold to rival the trade of the US dollar at the current dollar price, the effect on the price of gold could be astounding.
I think this is what AG fears -- that confidence in fiat currency might fade suddenly in a big way. Somehow he must engineer a graceful drop in the US dollar. Really hard to do with all this deflationary stuff heading toward the US, pushing the US dollar up instead.
As I have said many times, I do not wish to have AG's job -- I'll stick to my day job.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 17:27
jims (JP - agree but...) ID#252391: - I would agree with the ORACLES perdictions but we need ( a ) a devaluation in Russia, a devaluation in China, and yen over 150. Get all three and I think you are right in believing the Oracle that we are going lower.
Wil gold turn and depart from the dollar or asset deflation in general - that's the kicker. Seems at some point it would. The ORACLE's plan of buying gold and silver stocks in this Sept-NOV window is what I'm doing, but I've yet to get very willing to buy as the trends in the metals are down and there seems no sign of a bottom yet.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 17:22
robnoel__A (From our good friends at Free Republic...The Plunge Protection Team....... ) ID#396249: -
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a497213.htm
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 17:20
JTF (Appreciate the comments about Sir Isaac Newton, English recession) ID#57232: - Trinovant: Regarding 'standing on the shoulders of giants', I have always had a hard time imagining Newton as modest. Your description sounds more likely. Always pays to go back to the source.
With regard to England, this is part of why I think Europe may not be such a hot place to invest, despite the message that we are supposed to get. If Europe is coming out of a recession, has a boatload of debt floating around from SEAsia ,and Russia, it may very well remain in a recession, or worse. Especially if the US buying machine goes into recession. Come to think of it, gold might very well rise next year because the EURO falters.
The deflationary scenario is looking more and more likely, given the serial devaluations, first with SEAsia, and now South America. Brazil was to be a showcase of modern economic ( fiat currency ) type wisdom. Rudiger Dornbusch and a number of other well-placed economists engineered the current Brazil model. ( In all fairness to the economists, it may be that Brazil did not follow the guidelines recommended ) .
However, as JP ( I think ) pointed out, we have had 60+ years of fiat currency inflation, and we in the US are ripe for a collapse ( like every one else ) , regardless of the brilliance of the fiat currency economists. The only question is when. For example, could the US by some miracle avoid the current debt collapse virus spreading around the world, and have one more inflationary cycle before joining the rest of the crowd? I don't know, but I sure wouldn't bet the farm.
Interesting times. Keep your powder dry, because if deflation/depression comes before inflation, gold investments will do poorly for some time to come. However, after the deflationary collapse the cost of mining gold will drop dramatically, and gold stocks will soar into the stratosphere. Those gold bugs that still have some cash left will do very well indeed.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 17:17
vronsky (LBMA SNOW-JOB) ID#426220: -
Yahoo Breaking News just announced the following:
Low gold prices and depressed volumes in July pushed London DAILY clearing turnover to the lowest monthly figure on record, the London Bullion Market Association ( LBMA ) said on Wednesday.
Clearing levels for gold fell across the board from the previous month and from July 1997 as well,'' the LBMA said in a statement.
In value terms, the $8.8 billion recorded was the lowest level reached so far, based on an average gold price of $292.87, it said, referring to data records it has released each month since October 1996.
Troy ounces transferred by LBMA clearing bank members, a measure of the
bullion business done in London, totaled 30 million, 14 percent down on June and 19 percent down year-on-year.
People are just taking a little less interest in gold. It doesn't mean less profit because we have other things to look at instead of spot, said one senior bullion dealer.
People are reflecting on what's going on. The European central banks for
example are more or less out of the market for now, he added.
To fully appreciate the SNOW-JOB perpetrated by the LBMA, one must translate their terminolgy:
London DAILY clearing turnover… - this means SALES
Troy ounces transferred… - this means SALES
A measure of the bullion business… - - this means SALES
After all the subterfuge, they are saying that the average daily GOLD TRADING SALES VOLUME for the month of July was 30 million ounces - valued at $8.8 Billion.... D A I L Y
Let's think about this. Apart from all the gold traded in New York, Zurich, Paris,Hong Kong, Singapore, TOKYO, Dubai etc, LONDON ALONE TRADES 30 MILLION ONCES OF GOLD DAILY. That's a little over 900 metric tonnes each and every trading Day!!! That's equivalent to approximately 40% of the WORLD'S ANNUAL MINE PRODUCTION - That is to say LONDON trades DAILY nearly TWICE the amount of gold dug out of South African gold mines every single YEAR!
Who the hell is selling…? More importantly, who the hell is buying!!
Not too many months ago an analyst - who goes by the name the handle of
RED BARON - published a series of reports about the mysterious machinations of the LBMA and its monumental daily gold trading. For those who have not yet read the series - called THE GRAND LBMA EXPOSÉ: A Collective-Mind Analysis -the series may be found at the following URL. But it's necessary to delete the extra letters en in the word golden before posting it to the web:
http://www.golden-eagle.com/research/redbaronndx.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 17:10
CoolJing (a joke that embodies us kitcoites:) ID#343171: - a farm bureau man new to the area is making his rounds, meeting all of the farmers in his district. On one farm he comments to the farmer how if he fed his pigs apples they'd put on some weight and not look so scrawny. The farmer said he'd give it a try.
Weeks go by and the ag man desides to check up on the farmer, pulling up he sees the farmer holding a pig under an apple tree as it munches an apple. As he walks up the farmer sees him and says hey fella, these pigs are doing real well on these here apples, at this the ag man says, almost screaming yes but what about the waste of time?, at this the farmer gets another pig, holding it up to eat an apple and shruggs hell whats time to a pig?
( as a dyed in the wool gold bug I feel just like the farmer most times )
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 17:07
JP (Predictions---I have consulted with the ORACLE and would like to share the info with the group) ID#253153: - 1.The stock market to drop to 6000+ - 5% by Sep--Oct 30.
2. A decline below 7000 on the DOW will trigger a a gold bull market.
A dollar decline will commence with the Dow at 7000.
3. The CRB to decline to 180 or so by Oct.
4. Use price weakness in gold and mining shares for accumulation.
5. A depression will be visible for most Americans by Q1 ,1999.
6.By Q1, 1999, the CRB to decline to 150 with gold and mining shares showing strength and gaining respect among investors.
7. By Q2 1999, the CRB to drop to 125.
8.Unemployment to skyrocket to 10% by Q2,1999 and 15% by dec 1999.
9.By Q3, 1999, gold will be very strong and over $400 oz.
10.By Q4, 1999, the long bond yield to drop to 2.5%.
God help us all.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 17:05
OLD GOLD (highet gold a signal to BUY stocks again?) ID#242325: - Some bottom fishers looking for a jump in gold as a signal to buy stocks. The rationale -- if gold jumps that will indicate intense investor fear -- just what is needed to turn the stock market around.
From the street.com today:
By Dave Kansas
Editor-in-Chief
It takes no expert to understand the truth. This market isn't healthy.
James J. Cramer may declare the market's rebound in the last half-hour a
victory, but don't plant the flag yet.
Despite the last-minute bounce, stocks did not get off easy. Small stocks,
again, took the brunt of the damage and breadth was terrible. And, as with
other rebound attempts throughout the session, the final spree was very
narrow. Exhausted bulls are fighting with all their might, but the
much-anticipated bottom has not yet arrived.
Throughout the year I've focused on Intel ( INTC:Nasdaq ) and Japan. Intel,
while off its lows, is still well off its record levels of earlier this
year. Japan, despite the modest excitement following the recent government
shake-up, is still a basket case. And patience with emerging markets is
wearing thin, with Indonesia and Russia looking equally nasty.
With the Dow taking another nasty pratfall, investors are looking for a
chance to buy the so-called dip. Finding a bottom is an art, and it
requires many different things. Essentially it is impossible to predict the
bottom, but I polled some folks to find out what sorts of things they are
searching for as they watch stock prices cascade lower.
* Bottom-fishing: We're not there yet. The kind of fear associated with a
bottom has yet to surface. Even in the midst of Tuesday's downdraft,
GeoCities ( GCTY:Nasdaq ) , an Internet IPO, managed to open at 33 -- well
above its offering price of 17. In really nasty downturns, IPOs get
shelved, delayed or canceled. Where could that mixture of fear and
intensity occur? Take a look at Dec. 31 closes for the major averages.
We're still a few percentage points away, but the elimination of this
year's once-solid gains would inject a nifty level of terror into the
market.
* Watch the bonds: Back in October 1997, the first true indication of a
turn came when bonds began to sell off. In typical markets, whatever that
means, bonds' rise bodes well for stocks. But bonds have taken on a
different tone in the past few months -- as they did during the frenetic
October 1997 selloff. Bonds have replaced gold as the haven in a storm.
Nervous investors from Asia and the rest of the world have parked their
assets in bonds, waiting for the right moment to re-enter the fray. When
they do re-enter the fray, they will first sell bonds. Therefore the bond
market needs to show real weakness before it's clear that investors are
diving back into U.S. stocks. Late Tuesday, bonds sold off ahead of the
late, index-focused rally.
* Corporate repurchases: Again, back in October 1997, on the Tuesday
following the Monday market closure, IBM ( IBM:NYSE ) weighed in with a
high-profile share-repurchase announcement. We have not seen that same kind
of news as yet, despite the sharp drop in prices among many bellwether
stocks. Keep your ear out for news from a General Electric ( GE:NYSE ) or a
Dell ( DELL:Nasdaq ) or a Merck ( MRK:NYSE ) announcing a major
share-repurchase initiative. ( James J. Cramer informed me after this was
published that Merck announced a $5 billion repurchase on July 28. So if
they, for some reason, announced another buyback, then you'd have a very
bullish indicator. )
* Japan: Reading this past week's edition of The Economist, one brief item
shocked me. A Japanese diplomat was fired for saying things too kind about
the U.S. concerning the Okinawa military base problems. The story indicated
that Obuchi and others are not pleased with perceived U.S. bullying on the
economy. If that's so, then it's difficult to see how an Obuchi-led
government will make the economic changes that the U.S. and other nations
are recommending. As I have mentioned before, Japan is absolutely vital to
this market. The recent election there was more problematic than anyone has
admitted and that spells more trouble from Japan, not less. Radical change
from Japan is needed in order to shift Asian-driven negative sentiment.
* The media: More panic in the streets, and less of this
calm-as-the-day-is-long type coverage. Some more front-page stuff in The
New York Times or The Wall Street Journal. Problem here is that these
publications blew it out last week, and they will be less inclined to do so
quickly again. That means we need to get lower in the next few days so the
Sunday papers and the national newsweeklies really lay the bear-market hit
on us coming into next week.
* Volume: We need the eye-popping volume associated with a true bottom. At
that time, buyers and sellers converge with a special ferocity that makes
the exchanges quiver. We have not seen this kind of activity thus far, and
given the steady increase in volume in the past 10 months, it will take
probably close to a 2 billion-share day on the New York Stock Exchange to
indicate a special kind of frightened bottom. At midafternoon Tuesday, with
the Dow Jones industrials down 250-plus, fewer than 500 million shares had
traded. That's not pell-mell activity.
* Precious metals: Another leg of fear would be a surprise move into gold.
This metal has not acted as a store of value in some time, but real fear
might make people return to the oldest saws they can uncover. That would
mean gold.
* Fund redemptions: More news of funds getting redemption calls, coupled
with a rise in money market fund assets. The money market fund asset
reports come out on Thursday, and they should show some hints of movement
by fund players.
* Presidential resolutions: Sad to say it, but the Clinton/Starr battle
needs to move off the front page. Hard to get traction before the Aug. 17
testimony of Clinton. We may get a bottom, but accelerating through that
mess -- absent some sort of pretestimony resolution of the crisis -- will
be most difficult.
* Financial stocks: Right now, as James J. Cramer pointed out, stocks like
Citicorp ( CCI:NYSE ) are in a damned if they do, damned if they don't
position. Rates will go higher if people sell bonds to get back into
stocks, and higher rates aren't great for financials. Rates will go lower
if damage is so nasty that there's no place to go but bonds. In that case,
Citi and other financials suffer with the rest of the market. A sharp turn
upward by the group -- especially the brokerage firm stocks -- would
indicate an end to that double-negative thinking.
* Another bull to the bear camp: Will Jeffrey Applegate at Lehman Brothers
capitulate? How about Abby Joseph Cohen at Goldman Sachs? Too much status
quo among the punditry, not enough shifting to more cautious positions.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:56
J (Gold Dancer: Commodities, stocks, and balloons. ) ID#174239: - Comparing the stocks and commodities in the 30s with now is an interesting observation. I read somewhere ( possibly here ) a theory that inflation has always been about 6%. However in the past few years it APPEARS lower because the excess pricing has been mostly in the stock market. I imagine the whole economy as a long skinny ballon. Normally, as air is pumped in, the whole ballon gets bigger. But it is possible to hold your hand around one part as new air is pumped in. This causes the unrestricted part to inflate even faster, while the restriced part does not inflate at all. You can even tighten your hand and shrink one part, forcing the other part to expand. Our economy is a very big ballon and the government, media, corperations, etc. all have thier hands on it somewhere. Apparently the net effect lately is a deflation in the commodities part and an inflation in the stocks part.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:56
Steve in TO__A (Heh, heh- I told you guys not to buy Windows 98 yet . . . ) ID#209265: - Well, Win98 is Y2k compliant! It passes every Y2k test from an independent contractor with flying colours.
Unfortunately, it has sort of an amazing bug: It's not New Year's Day compliant. Under certain conditions, when the computer's clock ticks over from Dec 31 to Jan 1, in any year, it either gains two days or loses one!
To read up on the bug go to:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_148000/148556.stm
MS always releases new software with bugs in it. Wait another 5 months before buying your copy.
All the best : )
Steve
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:55
Trinovant (There goes my tea...) ID#359316: - The new £2 coins have standing on the shoulders of giants
stamped onto the milled edge. Why?
* This is a quotation from a letter by Isaac Newton, who was both
a top scientist and later Master of the Royal Mint. It appears
on two-pound coins ( and on a book by Melvyn Bragg ) because of a
misconception about what it means.
According to a press release about the coin issued by the Mint, the
words refer to Newton's work on gravity, and indicate the modest
way in which he described his success as being based on the work
of his predecessors. None of this is true.
The words come from a letter written to Robert Hooke many years
before the work on gravity was published. They are part of a
bitter correspondence between the two. Hooke claimed that Newton
had stolen his own colour theory of light. It happens that Hooke
was a very short man, with a twisted back. Newton's reply was that
if I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of
giants- meaning I have no need to pinch ideas from a little runt
like you, and implying that Hooke was an intellectual pygmy.
John Gribbin, ( author, Newton in 90 Minutes ) , Brighton
Notes & Queries, The Guardian, Wednesday August 12th, 1998.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:55
Silverbaron (Gold hedging link) ID#288295: -
The link I just posted, is old - but may have some value to you who are trying to put together a list of non-hedgers.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:52
Silverbaron (Gold hedging by South African miners) ID#288295: -
http://www.btimes.co.za/97/0223/news/news2.htm
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:50
jims (ABX stay away from Harmony) ID#252391: - Keep you hands off HGMCY, ABX. We don't need a good stock spoiled by a take over. HGMCY a $4 stock today is a $32 stock waiting to happen
Looks like Arch Crawford scheduled quest on CNBC this time period didn't show up so they are runnig a repeat of the alternative investment story they ran yesterday - in which gold and gold shares are mentioned positiviely - also share of companies that have gone down - hello gold shares.
No Crawford Must have gotten lost in the stars.
Do you think Fleckenstein will issue a buy signal - wish he'd talk about PAASF - no chance.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:50
James (RJ@CDF) ID#252150: -
Date: Sun Aug 09 1998 17:29
James ( THE WORST@Kaplan has the worst PM forecasting record that I have
seen ) ID#252150:
since POG was 400. Old Gold is a close second. When I first joined the Navy in
1960, the old Chiefs used a derisory abbreviation to express their disgust at one of the
hands who was particularly inept. They would say he has no CDF. After I overheard
1 of the old chiefs mention to another chief that Smith had no CDF, I asked 1 of the
seamen what it meant. He replied it means he has no common dog fu*ing sense.
Kaplan & Old Gold doubtlessly have high IQs, but I think they are lacking in CDF.
Kaplan has been relying on the commercials since POG was 400 & has been wrong
ever since. It's quite obvious that the small specs have been right & the commercials
have been wrong. Old Gold has been talking about the final washout at 380, 360, 340
& all the way down. It did'nt take a genius to recognize well over a year ago that AU
had many negatives going against it:
1 ) CBs threatened & actual sales + an incredible amount of producer fwd selling.
2 ) No inflation.
3 ) POG tied almost umbilically to the collapsing JY.
4 ) Most importantly-the collapse of SEAsia, which was providing the strongest
incremental demand. And now of course, China is imploding along with Japan &
demand in the sub-continent has virtually collapsed.
None of these negatives just sneaked up unannounced. They were all telegraphed well
in advance.
I stated in Jan. that the POG would be stuck in a range from 280-320 this year. I now
think that we may get a tradable rally when it bounces off 278, but doubt if we will
even get back to 300 because of Australian & S. African producer selling over 295.
And yes, I think that Glenn, Armstrong, Ole49r & all the doomsayers may be right &
POG could get to below 250 & possibly even 200 in a severe deflation.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:49
ROR (Russky) ID#412286: - Communist Party Backs major national strike in Russia Set for October by workers and unions..from Russian News Wire..IMHO CLINTON and IMF better get some more money there and quick.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:43
jims (To APH) ID#252391: - Good call on Wheat - the golden grain - 268 low, 275 high and close, only grain to rise, coming off lows not seen since the seventies.
Silver however hit 5.25 and with the special bonus offer of green stamps and frequent flyer miles thrown in to entice borroweres to lease/sell silver the market was turned back to yesterday's lows.
Interesting Note: Yahoo for some reason has dropped Sunshine Mining SSC from its quote - hopefully just a technical problem ( probabpy y2k related- hopefully not a delisting )
Japanese yen retreated from highs hit just before trading started in NY. Gold and silver fell in lock step. Russia about to revalue, China may devalue, japan is devaluing, silver and gold mining share portfolios devaluing - BUY WHEAT !!!!!!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:41
gunrunner (I like it...) ID#354133: - My favorite quote from the movie Bridge Over the River Kwai ( sp? )
Madness! ....... Madness!
What's going to be the dynamite that blows the bridge
And since I we all need a good joke here today ( other than $30K gold ) .....
Jesus and Satan have an argument as to who is the better programmer. This
goes on for a few hours until they agree to hold a contest with God as the judge.
They set themselves before their computers and begin. They type furiously
for several hours, lines of code streaming up the screen.
Seconds before the end of the competition, a bolt of lightning strikes,
taking out the electricity. Moments later, the power is restored, and God
announces that the contest is over. He asks Satan to show what he has come up with.
Satan is visibly upset, and cries, I have nothing! I lost it all when the power went out.
Very well, then, says God, let us see if Jesus fared any better.
Jesus enters a command, and the screen comes to life in vivid display, the voices of an angelic choir pour forth from the speakers.
Satan is astonished. He stutters, But how?! I lost everything, yet Jesus'program is intact! How did he do it?
God chuckles, Jesus saves.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:39
gagnrad (squirrel re prices) ID#43460: - I'm always curious. How would you denominate prices when a fourth of the population makes nothing nor and contributes nothing except as a 'consumer' of goods and services, paid for in one way or another by government spending? IMHO we vastly underestimate the amount of resources being spent to prop up the welfare system whose only product is votes for the tax and spend candidates. Figuring it in the old English way, each citizen on the dole has an income in the range of ten pounds of silver per month. ( 8-^* )
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:39
Trinovant (Secret gold supply is plundered from cliffs) ID#359316: - Thieves have hacked off more than six tons of
a seaside cliff face to plunder its deposits of gold.
The Hope's Nose site at Torquay, Devon, is a
protected area and was once known only to
geologists as the richest vein in Britain.
But since the deposits were mentioned in
publicity for the resort, robbers using pickaxes
and even petrol-driven saws have almost emptied
the cliffs of their gold-bearing ore.
Yesterday the local council and scientists
appealed to the public to watch over the area.
[Shutting the stable door?...................]
Geologist Dr Kevin Page said: This is a unique
site and it is being carted away by the load.
The Daily Mirror, Friday July 31st, 1998
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:34
Speed (Gold report) ID#28861: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980812/markets_pr_2.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:32
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265: - Trinovant -- Only supposed to export debt, like the US!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:31
Bingo (curmudgeon, if you've never had credit card fraud ) ID#263254: - perpetrated upon you, then you wouldn't know that the person calling you to buy fraud insurance was yanking your chain. The establishments that take credit cards and you the consumer pay for this each and every time you use your card.
Had a visa card stolen from my home and did not know about the fraudulent usage until my bill for $15,000 came in for charges at several east coast establishments ( I reside closer to the west coast ) . The fraud division of the credit card company asked several questions and then took care of it. All fraudulent charges were reversed the next month. They shelved the paperwork for a number of months because they were so backlogged, and I know this because I was curious to know who it was that ripped off my card from my home. In their own words, this happens every day, all day and the cost is huge.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:19
Trinovant (Do I smell burning...) ID#359316: - Manufacturing orders fall and 1300 more jobs cut!
£28 billion wiped off value of leading shares as global confidence wobbles!
The malaise in manufacturing has spread to all regions of Britain,
the Confederation of British Industry warned yesterday. But the
Government stuck to its insistence that the strong pound was not
the cause, blaming Asia's massive economic downturn instead.
The Treasury Chief Secretary, Stephen Byers, said the Far East Crisis
was responsible for the latest round of British redundancies, which
were nothing whatsoever to do with sterling.
His comments followed news that three British companies - BOC, the
industrial gases group; Molins, which makes machinery for the
manufacture of cigarettes; and Royal Ordnance, the small-arms
producer- were cutting more than 1300 jobs between them. The huge
merger announced yesterday between oil giants BP and Amoco is expected
to lead to further redundancies.
The FTSE 100 index of major stocks went tumbling, due to a global
attack of nerves over the far-reaching effects of the Asian meltdown.
More than £28 billion was wiped off the value of leading shares
as the index hurtled downwards for the third day in a row, closing at
its lowest level for seven months.
A sharp rise in the numbers unemployed and claiming benefit is expected,
too, in jobless figures out today.
Mr Byers said falling orders from Asia were to blame for manufacturing's
problems. The reality is that we are seeing a recession in the
Far East and as a result of that some companies based here in the UK
who trade worldwide are having to make some very difficult and very
painful decisions he said.
BOC today have said the main reason is to do with a downturn in the
world market. We've lost 500 jobs in BOC announced today- that's
disappointing. They have announced 4000 jobs are to go worldwide-
that can't be the fault of the level of sterling he said.
But the CBI said the strong pound was adding to the impact of the
Asian crisis by making it harder for companies throughout the
country to sell goods abroad. Its latest survey of industry
shows that for the first time since the end of the last recession
in the early nineties, orders are down as confidence collapses in
every region of Britain bar Northern Ireland, where the peace process
has buoyed business hopes.
The strength of the pound is having an impact on manufacturing right
across the mainland, said Sudhir Junankar, the CBI's associate
director of economics.
Export orders fell steeply in most regions, particularly the North-west,
Yorkshire and the East Midlands.
Announcing the closure of its Peterborough factory yesterday, with the
loss of 360 jobs, Molins blamed sterling's strength for harming its
sales of cigarette-machinery. BOC said its planned 500 job cuts were
part of a productivity drive in the face of tougher overseas
competition.
The TUC general-secretary, John Monks, said a recession in
manufacturing was inevitable unless the Bank of England cut the cost
of borrowing. The Government should bring forward its investment
plans to stabilise the domestic economy, targeted at areas of
high unemployment, he added.
Earlier in the day the Deputy Prime Minister, John Prescott, denied
that the Government saw job losses as a necessary price to achieve
its long-term economic goals.
Charlotte Denny and David Gow
The Guardian, Wednesday August 12 1998
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:17
newtron (All, tune in CNBC BUBBLE VISION. They're about to bradcast a food ) ID#335184: - fight between Joe i Feel Good Battataglia the grunting raging bull of grunting Gruntal & Billy the Kid Gallahad Fleckenstein !
Vegas currently is showing The Kid by a TKO, before the 1st Bell ! If Joe hears the bell, he starts salavating & foaming & the Fight Doctor will have to stop the fight !
Yo Adrian, don't let Joe chew your ear off !
Chow & Rock Steady !
TAR BABY
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:07
Squirrel (Mountain Goat - thanks, must be the mountain in you.) ID#280214: - For the doubters...
Most hard rock miners here are making $30K to 50K per year after taxes {some higher some lower}. A week’s wages therefore is about 2 to 3 ounces of Gold. Let’s figure it takes the equivalent of two day’s labor to produce and refine one ounce of Gold. The only way for the POG to double or triple and stay up there is for the cost to mine and refine Gold to increase to the equivalent of a week or more of labor per ounce. Low grade ore bodies would become feasible to mine again.
Such a scenario would have all the Gold mining technology pushed to the stops and beyond as companies wrung every last 1/4 ounce out of every ton of ore. They’d be strip mining whole mountains that were once worked with tunnels {I know of several square miles east of town here to which that description would apply}.
Where is that demand going to come from. CBs buying it hand over fist? Goldbugs buying it hand over fist? The average Joe & Jane 6pak and winecooler4pk buying it hand over fist? Okay, let’s assume that kind of demand emerges and doesn’t let up for a decade or so - and the POG goes to the equivalent of a months wages for the guys who mine & refine the stuff. There will be another Gold rush into these mountains the likes of which was last seen a century ago. The price of flour may again be 1/2 ounce of Gold per 50lb bag - as it was here during the last Gold rush.
P.S. we have to get away from a POG in US$ and denominate in real goods and services - such as how many bags of flour an ounce buys or how many hours of work will a plumber do for an ounce of Gold.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:05
zeke (@rhody) ID#25257: - Your idea of an unhedged-mining stock list is an excellent one. Since, as you say such a list would be somewhat fluid, a Top Ten list based on capitalization might be in order. By-the-bye, which issue in your opinion are the Top Ten now?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 16:04
Gold Dancer (SWP1) ID#377196: - Understand. But that strong? No other stock with that many
shares trades so little. Therefor, I guess that Peter is going
after HGMCY and we will see an offer shortly?
That is the only thing that makes sense. All RSA stocks will
benefit.
Let us watch this together, shall we?
Thanks, GD Too much volume in DROOY and RANGY to suspect
anything going on, but HGMCY....
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 15:58
SWP1 (@GoldDancer) ID#286224: - I like that!!!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 15:58
Gold Dancer ( Karma, Peter, It's called Karma) ID#377196: - Go DROOY GO GOLD
Thanks, GD
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 15:57
SWP1 (@GoldDancer 14:31 Re: Harmony (HGMCY)) ID#286224: - Low Volume = held by Strong Hands
YES?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 15:54
aurator (Dogs have fleas upon their backs to bite 'em and those fleas have other fleas and so on ad infinitum) ID#255284: - Meanwhile
in ANOTHER banana Dominion a government falls into chaos and the NZ$ looks to test below US$0.47
http://www.nbr.co.nz/Detail.cfm?ID=846526&Page=2512
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 15:53
Gold Dancer (Here is another senario) ID#377196: - Barrick makes offer on DROOY. Analysts take a look and drop the
price of ABX to $10 a shre and bid Drooy up to $15. In the mean time
ABX loses its suit over the BRE-X fiasco and has to pay 2 billion to
settle. Stocks drops to $2 and DROOY makes a bid for ABX and wins.
Peter is last seen walking around in a fog....can't remember
his own name or what happened.
Thanks, GD
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 15:51
sam (on insanity) ID#286234: -
Madness takes it toll, please have exact change.
( author unknown )
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 15:50
The Hatt (Japan pays lip-service to the yen!) ID#364255: - It didnot take the markets long to recognise the fact that if the japanese had any intention at all to defend their currency they would not be disclosing their intention to the world. As i watch the yen lose ground again it becomes painfully obvious that more and more traders are being sucked into this bear trap! Japans problems have not gone away and in fact they have yet to disclose the severity of them if they themselves even know. A reliable source has told me that in very short order we will see not one not two but three banks go under in Japan....
Being the mad man I am it would not surprise me to see this happen over the long weekend! All such announcements from Japan have occurred over weekends. Take off the rose colored glasses and deal with the facts America!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 15:42
Gold Dancer ( Price of gold) ID#377196: - Here is the best senario. Producers sell forward to keep price of
gold low so juniors cannot get into production. Price of gold goes
up suddenly and lasts for 9 months to a year. Only the producers
can make any money, by the time any junior gets into production the
majors have made so much money they are still the king pins.
Majors then sell the hell out of gold driving price down again and
buy up juniors at low prices after they have spent the money on their properties to prove up reserves. Maybe to even try to get into production.
Thanks, GD
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 15:41
Tantalus Rex (@Gold Dancer) ID#307155: - You're right, Munk the Skunk is burning a hole...isn't he...and it smells bad.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 15:38
Tantalus Rex (ABX Cash) ID#307155: - Something is up at ABX with all the cash they have. As I've said earlier, I have an EMail messgae that their share buyback program is under review and that THEY HAVEN'T EVEN RE-PURCHASES A SINGLE SHARE!!!
That means they think they can use the cash better elsewhere.
Rumor has it that they plan to use the cash to min Gold in Russia.
But to me, that is F!cf!n risky business.
Personally, I would buy back shares and talk mergers with other gold mining companies. I mean, there are so many mergers going on like BP and AMoco recently, The gold miners have lacked action in this regared.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 15:27
Mountain Goat (@Squirrel - Support) ID#35087: - I read your 14:32 and it made sense to me.
POG goes way up, more miners to dig it out of the ground.
More gold out of the ground, POG goes down.
Basic supply/demand
Your point was: It doesn't matter what the POG is in terms of dollars...
Dollars fluctuate ( Inflation/Deflation ) .
What matters is POG in terms of what it purchases.
I didn't see any lunacy in that statement/assumption
But then again, I'm a goldbug, which in the traditional investment
community makes me certifiably insane.
Regards,
MG ( Go Insanity! )
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 15:19
chas (Re Allen's Story and Squirrel) ID#147201: - It seems to me that what they are pointing to is when the time comes that all paper currency is worthless. what else besides gold and silver is there
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 15:03
Trinovant (One day-) ID#359316: - -there may be a new television programme-
Kitco New Bear Channel ( KNBC )
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 15:02
BillinOregon (Thank You) ID#262242: - Thank you silverbaron, the site is very comprehensive and I should be able to find the information I need.
To bad you can not be at the Kitcoite get-to-gether in New York Sat. I would enjoy meeting you.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:59
Gollum (Bandwidth) ID#35571: - Will the internet expand to infinity? Will an infinite number of new users be found? Will automobiles become a thing of the past as everyone sits glued to their internet screens, leaving the highways to the trucks that haul the food and take away the waste? Will an inifinte number of new communication lines be laid to hande the increased bandwidth of all the new virtual goodies?
Or will it progress more slowly than that?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:48
Squirrel (Midas and Ladybug) ID#280214: - Refute my premise.
Prove to me that I am wrong.
Or is it the POG staying in 4 digits that is the exageration?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:47
Gold Dancer (PMF) ID#377196: - That is exactly what I am talking about!!!!! Something is very
wrong out there in the world of finance.
We watch this together, yes?
Cheers, GD
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:39
Gold Dancer (ABX and it's cash) ID#377196: - I wonder whether Barrick is going to go after an RSA gold like
HGMCY or DROOY or RANGY? It would make sense as it would boost up
their reserves per share. But I wonder if they could be successful at it?
Could they get enough shares? What are they going to do with
their cash? Miramar also has about 100 million in cash. By the end of the
year it may be too late for them to act if gold is rising strongly.
Maybe the next 30 days will be interesting. It sure is boring now.
Wake up Peter. Your destiny calls. Your money is burning a hole
in your shareholders pockets.
Thanks, GD
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:36
Midas__A (@Squirrel, Reality check please........) ID#340459: - .
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:36
lady_bug (Squirrel) ID#320202: - .....your posts keep amazing me, you really like to exaggerate
l_b
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:33
blooper (CNBC CRASH party in October. not.) ID#207145: -
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:33
PMF (@Gold Dancer) ID#224363: - Re: Price of Commodities
Here is a rambling review for you to consider.
On the topic of hedging, does anyone know how much hedging occurs with the basic commodities ? If it is a lot perhaps we have the same kind of problem as with gold. If it is not a lot, do we have tremendous over-supply ? If neither of those, eat some bread and buy a big gas-guzzler. Enjoy the low prices while you can.
There can be now doubt that something is very very wrong. I have an immense problem with Yahoo, Amazon, etc. having market caps in the billions of dollars.
Plain and simple. This is wrong. Yes the Internet is great but...what was the market cap of RCA ( or the early TV networks ) when television started appearing homes. Was their market cap as excessive as the internet companies ?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:33
Silverbaron (BillinOregon @ hedging) ID#289357: - Nope don't know a central resource for hedgers; but there are some comprehensive spreadsheets of mining companies available at
http://goldsheet.simplenet.com
which may contain the information. If not, you might query the site if they know a source for hedging info.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:32
Squirrel (PH in LA - Never will the POG stay over a week’s wages for a miner.) ID#280214: - The Price of Gold may rise to several hundred dollars per ounce or maybe even US$1000 for several months, maybe even for a year or maybe two. But at that price there will be enough mines re-opening and old tails re-worked that the POG will stop rising and may even fall back down into the mid-hundreds - a week’s wages.
How do I arrive at this conclusion? I live among those mines and talk with those miners and mine engineers on a daily and weekly basis. It would put this town back into boom times! My friends would have great paying jobs again. Maybe even me too! Yes!
It matters not what dollar value you put on the POG -whether it is US$10, US$500, or US$30,000 per ounce. The criteria is a week’s wages for those digging and hauling it out of the ground and milling and refining it into Gold bullion. If Gold goes to US$30,000 an ounce - and stays there for a few years -you can bet your sweet bippy that the miners will be making at least US$1000 per hour. Get out the wheelbarrows{which, BTW, would cost several thousand dollars!}
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:32
kitkat (Russian c.bank says to limit forex purchases) ID#208393: - Wednesday August 12, 1:50 pm Eastern Time
MOSCOW, Aug 12 ( Reuters ) - ``From tomorrow we are introducing limits on some banking activities, in particular for buying foreign currency just for their own needs as reserves,'' Sergei Aleksashenko told ORT public television. ``We are telling banks that what you have today is the level which you do not have the right to exceed.''
Aleksashenko, first deputy chairman of the central bank, said market participants were trying to stock hard currency by cutting their rouble reserves. ``We intend to take under strict control, every minute and every hour, activities of the banks whose positions are causing serious suspicions of instability,'' he added. ``We intend to prevent
the interbank crisis from spreading further.''
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:31
Gold Dancer (Haromony) ID#377196: - Harmony hardly ever trades more that a few thousand shares a
day. Are there 60 to 70 million shares outstanding? Seems strange.
Anybody know why?
Thanks, GD
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:29
newtron (rhody, ! Where did you get the noyion to tar me that swipe about following ANOTHER ? I've never read) ID#388209: - one of his posts without scepticism or commented on his THUOGHTS without tonguie thingie pressed firmly to cheek !
As to FED supremecy & speculating that they will dictate POG to an
automatic pilot world depression in order to protect the role of the USD as the world reserve currency, I DON'T THINK THEY HAVE the power, design or inclination to do this; the USD be damned !
Don't forget those designing socialists on the continent. I don't think they are going to all this troble to unify their monetary sphere so the can play bean bag with the USD ! The world, especilaly the arab & ailing tiger world in the fiery rim that is still smoldering will do more than just cheer them on !
Y.O.S.,
TAR BABY
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:27
PMF (@Gollum) ID#224363: - I understand and agree but ( the big but...or is that butt ? )
ABX has a fair chunk of change in the closet. They are by no means ailing. PDG also isn't doing too badly. NEM has had better days but they are not hedging ( so they say ) . Bunch of smaller producers have said they bought their hedges back. The Aussies seem to be hedging like crazy. Don't know about S.A.
Of the group, ABX and the Aussies seems to be the biggest problem. And if it is shareholder value that they are trying to improve through their hedging, they aren't doing a very good job.
Maybe they are in fact, smarter than all the rest of us. Maybe they guessed that the POG would sit below $300 for a few years and set up their hedging programs because of that. Maybe they are the ones to watch ( or maybe they are the ones that are helping keep the POG down ) .
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:25
Allen(USA) (RJ in response to your post asking for comment ..) ID#246224: - may your patience with this flea on the tail of your servant's dog be long. I humbly offer these thoughts for your esteemed amusement.
Indeedy, we must think long and hard on this: currencies are the moment in time in between the transaction of goods and services for other goods and services. The vast bulk of currencies no longer exist as physical paper. The immense 'wealth' which is 'represented' by digital accounts is THE realm of transient value today. US , State, Local government and Corporate debt now stand on the order of $US 15 trillion in addition to the US$ 5.7 trillion in M3 accounts that are extant; this equals over $US 20 trillion. All digital and all held with the view of redeeming this 'currency' for real things at some time in the future.
But there is a problem on the horizon to which you allude and are cognizant: Year 2000. This problem threatens the viability of the entire system and practise of holding value ( in terms of currency units of account ) in the etherial form of digital accounts. Regardless of the assurances of those vested interests who will claim to the end that 'everything will be OK' enough people will begin to move a portion of their digital wealth into a tangible reality as that date draws closer.
In a recent CIO magazine survey 80% of those surveyed believed that the Year 2000 problem was already ( ?! ) or will be taken care of. Yet 25% of the total respondants would close their accounts and put cash under their mattress or in their home if they felt that the problem was not being resolved fast enough by mid-1999. 41% of the total respondants said they did not know what they would do if they found that in mid-1999 things were not being fixed enough.
Some of this 'money' will find its way into the purchase of goods which pertain to 'survival' or 'preparedness'. But much of it will still want to be in the form of some kind of 'cash'. Unfortunately there is too little physical, paper cash to be had at large. This 'money' will then look for what it considers 'cash equivalents', which we call gold and silver.
~ ~ ~ A Little Story ~ ~ ~
There was a small village were the economy was overhelmingly based on the numbers written on the town chaulk board. A custodian was charged with maintaining the integrity of the numbers of account. When a transaction was done the parties went to the chaulkboard and made their agreement in front of the custodian, who - with all gravity - changed the figures on the chaulk board.
But there were a few in town who held an old form of money that most people no longer recognized as real money. It was gold and silver. These old ones often met to discuss their views at a tavern called 'K1'. They believed that gold and silver were real money and the chaulk board money was to unstable to be relied upon. Some of them said that the chaulk board was a useful device and others joined in at the tap only to stir up trouble with the more arguementative of the old ones.
As time went by the small town grew and its economy prospered under the chaulk board, which grew bigger still. It was now true that even though the gold and silver coins could be bought and sold for chaulk board money, these precious metals in their 'chaulk board value' were to lowly to accomodate the size of the village economy.
One day a great storm arose, a hurricane the likes of which had never appeared in all the history of the village. The 'chaulk board' house roof was completely torn away and the rains washed upon the chaulk board for hours and hours. People trembled in their homes. Some were killed. Some lost everything from the floods that destroyed their life's work.
As the day of reprieve dawned, and as the skies cleared, the people began to clean their homes and mend their lives. But they were struck by a growing chorus of cries which came from the center of the village. Many of the able quickly rushed to the square and found the greatest devastation was .. that the chaulk board had no marks on it any more. The cries of dispair slowly changed into cries of rage. Soon the entire village unleashed their furry against what remained of the old chaulk board house. It lay in smoking ruins for days, reeking a coiled rope of acrid smoke to the sky.
I won't trust anything called 'money' I can't touch and see! exclaimed one father. Give me a money that will not ever be washed away again! shouted another. Many others murmured their agreement. The old ones, who had been at the edge of the crowd for days, came forward. The oldest one of them all, the one called Donald, raised his voice for all to hear.
Friends, hear me now! Many of us have lost everything today, but all of us have our future. We still have each other and the willingness to work honestly for a better life. We had placed our trust in a chaulk board which was ruined in one hour. Let us say from this moment forward, 'Never again!
The crowd swelled with 'amen's and 'here here's.
There is a better way, Donald continued A way that was used for many centuries before we resorted to our folly of the chaulk board. Gold and silver coin will never be washed away by water, neither burned to the ground by fire. Settle it to be your 'money' again today!
The crowd roared its agreement. They hoisted Donald high into the air and paraded him to the square for another lengthy speech and rounds of applause and approbation. The other old ones smiled politely and appreciatively, though they felt a bit left out.
And they quietly considered their place in the new order of things .. for they had gold and silver.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:23
blooper (Gollum) ID#207145: - Did you say crash? The most positive time of the year coencides with a bottom. That is a double positive. Noone knows. I will take a limited shot, selling into strength. Got to make a buck. Or lose one.Thanks for the compliment crash.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:18
Gollum (@blooper) ID#35571: - I still see a decline into at least December. It's possible we could see a faster decline ( crash? ) before then and subsequent short sucker rally, but I don't see any sign yet that the world's woes will be cured in the next couple of months.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:18
Gold Dancer (The Worth of Gold) ID#377196: - I was thinking last night about what is going on in the markets.I came up with the following observation: REAL MONEY ( gold, silver,
wheat, corn, copper ) are all selling at or below their prices of the
30's on a dollar adjusted basis. Here I just take the price and divided
by 9 for a 90% depreciation of the dollar. Gold 282 divided by nine=
$31.33, wheat: $2.50 divided by 9 = $.28.
Then I notice that items that are backed by debt are selling
at sky high prices: Stocks ( business ) , homes, etc. Take the Dow and
divided it by 9= 8500divided by 9 = 944. A house worth $270,000 is
equal to $30,000. All are 5 to 10 times their prices of the 30's.
Now I suppose we must adjust for general improvements. But it still
seems that gold is underpriced. So is wheat, oil etc.
I conclude that commodities must rise in price or debt backed items
must fall in price.
Nothing new here but it is clear what must happen. When is the
question.
Thanks, GD
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:17
blooper (Depression of buyers) ID#207145: - Big Rally lacks buyers. No wonder. See you later in October. Trick, then hopefully treat.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:14
Gollum (@PMF) ID#35571: - In the late twenties, the stock market was the only game in town. The US was still a big agricultural country, but the farms were in trouble. The economy was turning sour and the handwriting of the coming depression was already on the wall.
Putting money into the bubble was not a good idea.
Except that the markets were going up.
Some got out in time, most didn't.
Times went sour for the mining companies several years ago.
Leasing gold for sales is not a good idea.
Except it allows an ailing producer to turn a buck.
How many will make it out?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:14
PMF (Out on a limb...DOW will close down) ID#224363: - If as has been speculated before that day-trades are playing an increasing role in the ups and downs of the DOW, I am going to go out on a limb and suggest that we will end down today ( or very slightly above less than 10 points perhaps ) .
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:13
BillinOregon (Hedging) ID#262242: - Does anyone know where I can find a list of hedged gold mines
Thanks
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:13
blooper (I Love) ID#207145: - Cash.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:11
blooper (Gollum) ID#207145: - No we wait for the 1. Crash, 2. The orderly retracement. ( My money on crash still, but I give you benefit of doubt.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:09
blooper (Gollum) ID#207145: - Don't you think there will be a bounce after October?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:08
vronsky (crazytimes (@ Vronsky)) ID#427357: -
gonna name ya SPEEDY-GONZALEZ
...goes to show great minds run in the same path ( :- ) )
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:07
Gollum (@blooper) ID#35571: - Yes.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:07
kitkat (Russian Banking Crisis) ID#208393: - According to our estimates, interbank ruble and foreign
currency trade has virtually halted.
Russian banks have suffered acute liquidity problems since a financial market crisis started in May, causing many investors to withdraw funds from domestic ruble-denominated securities and convert them into dollars.
http://www.msnbc.com/news/187419.asp#BODY
and Gold is STILL down
What happens when the US$ goes sour?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:04
PMF (@Gollum, D.A., and others) ID#224363: - I've read the comments concerning the relative pro's and con's of hedging by the world's gold mines and it seems to me ( as mentioned here before by someone ) to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Hedging of one's production seems to be a smart ( and common ) practice in the commodities market. As R.J. ( I think ) said before, 'everyone hedges everything, including oats, wheat, etc.'. At issue though is the degree to which the mines are allowed ( or encouraged ) to hedge. It almost appears that by virtue of the availability of cheap loans, hedging has been encouraged in excess, and the gold mining firms have taken complete advantage of that. ( Sort of like the concept of cheap and readily available money from financial institutions and credit card companies ) .
This would appear to be a very classic case of over-abundance of supply, which cheapens the perceived value of the commodity. One need look no further than the oil producing nations to see how a supply glut can kill the price. The Saudi's says 'we will decrease our production' and the Latin countries say 'the hell with you, we are going to produce more to make up for it'. The net result is ZERO change in the market supply and price.
Perhaps I misunderstand the whole process but it would appear that it is up to the mining firms to slow down their use of hedging and indirect acceptance of gold loans in order to decrease the supply of available ( and cheap ) gold. Given that the Central Banks are quite content getting a few miserable percent on their reserves, I see no other alternative or event acting as a catalyst to an increase in the POG.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:04
crazytimes (@ Vronsky) ID#342376: - Beat you to it!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:03
JP (JTF-- Financial panics are always short in duration---say--6-10 weeks) ID#253153: - We are in a CONFIRMED DOW Theory primary Bear market. The DOW Theory is the oldest, most tested and most reliable theory. Both the Dow and the Transport indices are below their 200 day moving averages. This bear market can't be worked off by any means. As we look around the globe, we see that many countries are having financial difficulties. We have had 60+ years of inflation. The time has come for a depression. A financial panic is a confirmation of the coming depression.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:02
GFD (D.A. - Good To Hear From You!) ID#424345: - Thanks for your comments on Another - I tend to agree with your analysis - not to mention that of the position of the gold mines.
Do you have any comments about the lack of activity in the COMEX silver warehouses I don't know whether it means anything or not but I recall a comment of yours from the beginning of the year that the some holders of COMEX silver will not release their silver until much higher prices - which I am assuming to be the registered stockpiles.
It is starting to get a little unerving to see all those zeros day after day... ( maybe everyone is on vacation... )
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 14:00
vronsky (Merrill Lynch forced to add $100 million to Y2K costs ) ID#427357: - FOR ALL CASSANDRAS
US finance house Merrill Lynch admitted yesterday that
dealing with the millennium bug would cost it $100 million
more than it had originally expected.
The company said it expected to spend $375 million in all
on its Year 2000 project, up from a $275 million estimate
made as recently as March this year.
The Securities Industry Association, which just completed
initial millennium testing of systems connecting Wall
Street traders, estimates that its members will spend $5
billion on achieving Y2K compliance ( see separate story ) .
There is additional irony in Merrill's statement as the
company recently released a report that downplayed the
likely impact of the Year 2000 problem, saying there would
be little economic damage and most companies would get
through problems as they would in a power cut.
http://webserv.vnunet.com/www_user/plsql/pkg_vnu_news.right_frame?p_story=60866
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 13:59
crazytimes (If you like poking fun at Merrill Lynch, read this link) ID#342376: - Merrill Lynch adds $100 Million Dollars to Y2K budget AFTER press release saying there will be little economic damage from Y2K.
http://webserv.vnunet.com/www_user/plsql/pkg_vnu_news.right_frame?p_story=60866
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 13:53
JTF (You may be right) ID#57232: - JP: The serial devaluations always seem to make the US dollar stronger -- flight to safety - and that could continue for some time to come, but with more ups and downs. The baby boomers will not give up easily. I will certainly put some of my assets into the US markets if they look like they are heading for the stars one more time. Right now, I don't really know of a better place for equity investments -- short to intermediate term -- if you are nimble. But I will still keep most of my powder dry. I would use only derivatives if I were more skilled in their use - to keep the risk down, and keep the rest in treasuries. Slowly learning.
The hard part will be to know when the panic is over -- might take several months. Also -- depends on the US economic indicators looking positive.
In a year or so, SEAsia ( Malaysia? ) may be the best place to invest, given the principle of buying what has bottomed, but is otherwise fundamentally sound. Long term, the US markets are probably a bad idea until well after y2k -- and the derivatives/world debt question is more clear.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 13:52
blooper (JP ) ID#207145: - I think the rally will be great too. I don't think I would chance it past February...unless intrest rates look like they are going down.
t
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 13:45
JP (Newtron---Not really, there is always a bounce back after a large market decline) ID#253153: -
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 13:43
newtron (JP, is that based on some kind of projection based on assumption that we'll get a repeat of 1931-32 ) ID#388209: - ?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 13:37
JP (Blooper-- Once the financial panic is over--I expect a tremendous rally in ) ID#253153: - stocks to recoup at least 50% of previoud losses over a period of 3-6 months.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 13:18
newtron (Goll, I'm guessing the S&P topped out for the day. Close negative or close to even.) ID#388209: -
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 13:13
blooper (Gollum) ID#207145: - Do you still think stocks will go lower turu end on the year?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 13:13
JTF (October temporary bottom?) ID#57232: - blooper: I would add a proviso to your scenario about where to invest. The following are out: China, most South American countries, and probably Japan. Where does one invest? Lets say South America continues to fall, and the Chinese internal problems put a stop to their 8% annual growth. China has nothing to lose by devaluing the Yuan if their economic machine is faltering anyway, and the Japanese Yen continues to weaken. Russia is not looking good at all -- unless the leaders over there can wrest control of the economy back from the gangsters. Very much the same problem in Japan with the Yakuza.
So -- is Europe really a safe place to invest? I'm not so sure, because the serial currency devaluations may spread. I still don't have a clue how that 1.5 or so trillion $ of SEAsia debt is getting rolled over. Much of it Japanese and European. And there will be a boatload of more debt to roll over from South America -- this time alot of it US-based. I do not know how many economies in the world can fall to their knees before everything winds down.
I would guess that the safest location for investment would be in international corporations that offer goods that are necessary during harder times when cash is relatively hard to come by, either through local inflation or deflation. Basic defensive goods. Pawn shops too. I would not gamble on a rip-roaring European economy given what is happening right now elsewhere. We should let the dust settle first.
I would also invest in treasuries or their equivalent in a very strong currency 'backed' solidly by gold. German marks, Austrian currency, Swiss franc, and ?.
It wont' be long before AG must come to terms with a dropping equity market, faltering economic indicators, and a dropping monetary velocity. This time things will be worse than the 199-1993 situation, because there won't be as many international markets to jumpstart the US economy again. As far as I can tell, AG will be forced to drop short term rates to put them more in balance with long term rates, 6mo to a year from now.
And -- that will be bullish for gold, and bearish for the dollar, esecially if the US markets are dropping.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 13:11
blooper (JP Bond correction) ID#207145: - This will coencide with the September, October crash of stock values. Do you think, as I do, that a playable rally will ensue thru january?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 13:09
Silverbaron (rhody) ID#289357: - Why can't the mines just buy back their hedges?
In previous gold bull markets, this has been sort of a supercharger to the price - buying back hedge positions into a rising market.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 13:02
rhody (@ booper: Gold seems to move before oil. Bullion is safer than) ID#411440: - gold equities. I think every goldbug needs to find out about
forward selling exposure before investing in gold stocks.
I don't think it matters near term, because the public will
buy anything with Gold Mine in its title if gold prices rise,
but to hold, I think we must do due diligence.
Several months ago I suggested we compile a list of
unhedged mines. The problem with the list, it would
become dated fast.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 13:00
Gollum (@D.A. ) ID#35571: - I know. After all, if they got it back they wouldn't forclose.
The producers stand to lose more than the banks.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 13:00
Silverbaron (blooper) ID#289357: -
I'm not convinced about financial astrology, but FYI - here's a forecast with some time markers. Caveat Emptor, yesindeedy.
http://38.209.4.67/arc/rundown98b.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 12:57
Gollum (DOW +96) ID#35571: - Gee, only another 17 points and it'll be back up to yesterday's high/open.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 12:56
JP (Fox-Man-- US Treasuries are in a long term bull market ---BUT) ID#253153: - I think we will have a correction with rates rising to 7---7.5 % temporarally. As commodities prices and stock prices sink further, a rush for liquidity will intensify and some countries will sell their US bonds to raise capital. This will be coupled with the financial panic in stocks which I expect within the next 6-8 weeks. After the financial panic is over, US Treasury bonds will resume their upward movement with yields sinking to 2 % within the next 2 years.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 12:52
D.A. (not.quite) ID#7568: - Gollum:
The banks do not get their gold back. It is already in your backyard, and around my wifes neck. The banks which have lent the gold take losses on their loans. The CB's probably do not force the bullion banks to return gold they just get paper scrip instead. When all is said and done it is seen that the central banks have actually sold maybe a third of their physical gold holdings.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 12:43
PH in LA (2nd Words....on the Worth of Gold) ID#225408: - RJ:
Thank you for your post of Wed Aug 12 1998 01:57 The Worth of Gold ..... which does in part explain your absence from our presence these several days. You obviously do not aspire that it be considered the last word on this subject as you invite comment by saying I am asking these questions to invite criticism, and truly hope some example could be made where gold would attain otherwise lofty value heights.
Perhaps you could start by clarifying your passing reference to these, our more heady days, after decades of inflation has brought gold to all time record low. Yours is obviously a new way of considering the relationship between inflation and the price of gold. As you are surely aware, the accepted conventional wisdom has traditionally been that the inflating of the fiat money supply cheapens ( sooner or later ) the value of that money and causes ( sooner or later ) a corresponding increase in the price of gold in that currency. Would you mind explaining your contention ( that I hear now from you for the very first time ) that decades of inflation have brought gold to all time record lows? since many of us believe that it has been the actions of Central Banks and governments that have caused gold to act unnaturely ( for now ) supressing the price in spite of decades of inflation.
You also make the extremely unconventional statement that I submit ( and have in the past ) that gold does not store value which also seems to fly in the face of the hitherto well-established conventional wisdom of the ages. If I recall correctly, most of human civilization has placed a high degree of value in gold, including such widely-separated societies as the Ancient Greeks, the Sumerians, the Hebrews, the Romans, the Incas, the Aztecs, the Chinese, the English, and not surprisingly, even 20th-century America. Surely you do not really think that you have somehow negated all of history by the use of a transparent literary ploy. Your Rolly family, subsisting in 1998 America on their $10,000/year food budget laughing in the face of a visitor from ANOTHER's postulated gold-at-$10,000/oz nearby future is amusing but totally fails to confront any part of the reality summoned up by ANOTHER. I think even you would agree that if gold was being traded at $10,000/oz, Father Rolly would not hesitate to grab that one-ounce gold coin the instant it appeared at his front door. What you have done with your masterful and amusing pen is combine two contrasting realities without admitting it. Surely not an unintended device on your part!
To better appreciate the future reality that ANOTHER so carefully documents, one might be well-advised to peruse Aragorn's post in the Kitco archives of Date: Tue Jul 21 1998 20:19 entitled ( THOUGHTS! ) by ANOTHER...I certainly DO like the way the numbers play out. Any careful thinker who loves numbers as much as you profess to do, should appreciate Aragorn's thoughts. If you are sincere in your professed beliefs, you will surely feel called upon to comment on Aragorn's post. ( Incidentally, the post is reproduced at the USAGold site as part of ANOTHER's latest postings. )
Again, thank you for your own thoughts concerning The Worth of Gold and be assured that I look forward to their further clarification.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 12:42
FOX-MAN__A (JP; Huh? You take a pretty strong Deflationary stance and you think the) ID#288186: - Long Bond yield could temporarily spike up to 7% or more? I think
both fundamentally and technically, if/when Bonds get to that level, they
would continue upwards wouldn't they? Maybe I missed something. TIA
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 12:35
JP (Blooper---A break in the Sep long bond below 121.50 will signal a major correction) ID#253153: - in long term US Treasury bonds. A drop below 118 will for sure get us to the 7---7.5 % on the long bond.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 12:35
blooper (Temporary Bottom in October) ID#207145: - Everyone knows this. The ensuing bounce will be a dead cat bounce, but will last thru January. This will be the exit point. Invest in Banks, Oil , Europe. Anybody have a better scenario?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 12:27
curmudgeon (Fractional banking, bubble? Naaaah) ID#340256: -
The rot and stench of the fractional banking system reached my house yesterday. A 2x4 upside the head can focus ones thoughts. Lady from Visa called. Sir, we would like you to spend $240 per year to insure your good credit. Last year a few hundred million was lost from fraud. Sorry to hear that says I. People are breaking into the banks computer systems, not ours, taking credit card numbers, charging large amounts and you do not know anything about it until you get the bill. And you are responsible for it. You know that you have to report a lost card within 24 hours and your liability is $50.00.
Lady, I say, I am not paying you $240 to insure anything. Hung up. What to do? Only have two cards so I can handle this quite nicely. Call the first bank. I want to lower my credit limit to $500.00. You cannot do that. Present limit is $25,000. Why can't I do that? The lowest limit you can have is $5,000. You're a good customer and this is the type of card you have. What kind of card can I get that will give me a $500 limit? Well, send us $500 and we can give you a secured card. No thank you, just lower the limit to $5,000. Called the second bank, found the limit was $35,000. I want to lower the limit to $500. OK, sir it is done. For Pete's sake, I had $60,000 setting out there for someone to steal and I would have to pay it. But in reality, I had nothing, zip,zero, nada. The magic of the banking system. They used to hang bankers in the early days, I wonder why that quaint custom never survived? When does the revolution start?
Well the end result is I now have one credit card with a $500 limit. I am looking forward to some thief taking that card number and trying to buy a new car with it. How embarrassing for the poor fellow. How many credit cards are there in the world? How many do you have and what are the limits of each? How much can you afford to lose? Seems like cash and gold are a better alternative to this system. Cash, gold and trading, how sweet it is.
Cheers
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 12:26
Dave (@blooper) ID#261155: - you gonna give me the url to that jake's place?^s^
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 12:25
JP (Blooper---Yes, but now I think that we will have a temporary spike in interest rates) ID#253153: - After rates rise a bit , say to 7-71/2 % ( on the long bond ) , I think they will represent good value.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 12:17
blooper (JP) ID#207145: - Correction, Long term bonds.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 12:15
blooper (JP) ID#207145: - In other words, I should be in bonds ( short term ) , instead of cash?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 12:12
Dave (@nytol after last post) ID#261155: - ^s^,sorry bout that.....zzzzzzzzzzz
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 12:11
John Disney__A (This is Awful !) ID#24135: - to all
.. Disney's first law went away ..
but it came back ..
.. 41250/145.85 = 282.8 only
40 cents below actual ..
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 12:10
JP (The CRB is flirting with the 202 level ) ID#253153: - A drop below the 200 level will set up the stage for a temporary rally and then a big drop to the 150-160 level. As deflation accelerate and mounting defaults by foreign countries and corporations are announced, the CRB will drop further down probably to 100-125 level.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 12:08
blooper (rhody) ID#207145: - That is oil and gold and a lot more. On oil, would you think late October would be a gool time to invest in a fund? Also, the physical bullion is the way to own gold?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 12:05
Caper (Lookin' Backwards In the Footsteps of Giants) ID#300202: - Seem to recall upon being quizzed about timing to exit Gold Stocks.
I believe Another on one occassion stated $360/oz & later a subsequent call for $400/oz. Nonbelievers will of course await a higher price. I
will not.
Tom
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 11:59
rhody (@ blooper: ANOTHER made some good points. His basic asumption) ID#411440: - that the US dollar was the overwhelming culprit in international
finance was dead on. They violated Bretton Woods! Twenty five
years of fiscal excesses are coming home to roost. The USD is
going down, as the world can no longer carry 5% of the world's
population consuming 20% of world production, and paying for it
by just printing paper! ( an exaggeration but still true )
And oil is going to get a lot more expensive in the United States,
as are a lot of other things!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 11:51
blooper (rhody) ID#207145: - Sorry bout typo.. I too believe this guy is extreme.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 11:49
blooper (Rhoady) ID#207145: - Give the devil his due: the Euro with gold held ( no backing ) , might undermine the dollar, thereby making oil etc. possibly much more expensive.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 11:46
Bingo (What's this I am hearing about) ID#263254: - speculation/recommendation that Hong Kong should change it's currency to the US dollar? Or is this just newspaper blather. Anyone?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 11:45
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (The Mad HATTer Speaks!!) ID#431263: - And all who are wise will LISTEN!! Today's rally will soon fade into the sunset as the funds liquidiate stock positions before the LONG WEAKEND and BC's upcoming comupance! ( Did you see the anguish on BC's face as he got off the helicopter this morning? ) THE WASHOUT IS STILL AHEAD OF US!! Ma and Pa Kettle need time to think, overcome fear, screw up the courage, and pull the sell string. Mutual Funds low on cash will need to raise some in anticipation. Anticipate a wave of liquidation over the weekend. DAY-TRADERS BEWARE!! This nascent BEAR ain't over by a LONG shot! The pressure on HK and China and Russia to devalue is growing increasingly unBEARable by the minute! BIG CAP Oil stocks now helping to disguise broader DOW weakness! Money-center banks now at or below their 200 DMA!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 11:42
rhody (@will__A: ANOTHER'S comments would require a publisher. In fact) ID#411440: - there is a book published about his 'thoughts'
He thought:
1. that the USD was going to implode.
2. that the price of oil was linked to the price of gold.
3. that gold was worth $30 000 in imploded USD.
Most people consider his views too extreme.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 11:40
Gollum (DOW +74) ID#35571: - Not what one woul call a buying frenzy, but it is going up.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 11:35
Gollum (@D.A.) ID#35571: - So the central banks in leasing, rather than selling, gold are able to get the gold prices down while still owning the gold.
Then when the price rises the banks can call in their gold.
Mines go bankrupt and banks forclose.
Banks end up with all their gold plus the mines.
Cool!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 11:30
rhody (@ JTF: I'm with you. I'm very afraid the FRB will wait to long) ID#411440: - to inflate, or that the DOW will take too long to tank. I don't think
the Fed can lower rates, unless the DOW tanks, and I don't think the
Clinton administration wants the DOW to tank ( a la PPT ) . So Clinton
won't let the Fed lower rates because it would mess the fall elections.
So Clinton is driving the world to depression.
SO MILLIONS OF PEOPLE WILL BE RUINED, JUST TO GET THE DEMOCRATS
REELECTED FOR 4 MORE YEARS. THE AVERAGE DEPRESSION LASTS 10 YEARS
AND 30 MILLION PEOPLE DIED TO END THE LAST ONE!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 11:26
D.A. (perverse.indeed) ID#7568: - Rhody:
You have read it correctly. It is by no means a lock but a small but real possibility exists that a substantial rise in the price of gold could bankrupt many gold mines. The country which has the most aggressive forward exposure is Australia, and they would probably be the first ones to go.
At current prices of gold in A$ terms the industry as a whole in Australia is probably flat or underwater on their hedges. The banks which hold the other side of the loans must determine how far underwater that they will allow the mines to get.
Suppose we get a generalized currency devaluation, where the prices of all things go up in all currencies. In this case, mining costs might go up as fast or faster than the price of gold. Mines which borrow gold hedge thier selling cost but not thier production costs. If it turns out that mining is not so profitable at higher gold prices because costs are rising as fast or faster then the mines profitability would not look so great even at higher prices. Those that lent them massive amounts of gold would be rightly concerned that their loans had real risk. Given the extremely low return on these loans only extremely low risk can be tolerated.
One other point on the loan business. If the gold loans are underwater, the banks lending the gold will incur internal capital charges. At the point where the loss on income on the capital charges exceeds the paltry return on the gold loan it no longer is a profitable business for the bank.
Some day the headline might read, Gold Price Rises to new Highs, Chase Manhattan forecloses on the XYZ mine.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 11:23
The Hatt (PPT will regret drawing a line in the sand at 8400!!!!!!) ID#364255: - It seems to me that the PPT has made a huge mistake by drawing a line in the sand at 8400 as it is this mans opinion that we will break through that level by Friday and then watch all hell break loose. Todays so called rally is already showing weakness for the simple fact that the any upside movement is simply attracting more selling. Over the last two days on CNBC they have been telling the world that the institutions are on the sidelines and when asked about the retail investor they state that they are holding their positions. The obvious question to these highly paid spinsters is who is selling? The mutual fund industry is playing their cards very close to their chests as they struggle to keep up with redemption requests and their lines of credit are dropping quickly. The unwind is near as liquidations of huge baskets of stock are unleashed into the market..... Donot expect a warning as a market that is suffering from a liquidity problem never serves advance notice.
An old friend of mine describes a bear market as such. If you drop an anvil from the 14th floor one does not stand on the fifth floor and try to catch it instead they go down to the street let it land then pick it up. One morning soon the anvil is about to drop and there will be few hands reaching out the windows between the floors!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 11:13
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (RON INSANA REPORTS THAT RUSSIA'S CB ON THE VERGE OF FINANCIAL COLLAPSE!!) ID#431263: - RESERVES ARE RUNNING OUT AND THE NEXT 24-72 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL!!!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 11:12
HighRise (+62.50% in One Day) ID#401460: - PSGQF
10:47AM
0.065000
+0.025000
+62.50%
8,800
HighRise
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 11:10
JTF (CB Fiat currency survivial tactics) ID#57232: - rhody: I hope you are wrong that the FED ( and other CB's ) would risk worldwide depression just to keep the US dollar above water. I can see how fear of what happens after the US dollars start flooding back to the US might stimulate irrational behavior.
What I think is more likely is the reinforcing, reflexive process that G. Soros refers to -- and that is that once a certain process such as the gold loans/leases gets started, it has a life of its own, bigger than any one central bank. The increased oil production by the weaker oil producers during this current oil glut is an example, or the lemming-like over production of computer memory chips.
We know that the US FED cannot even begin to control the US dollar given the 1 trillion plus US dollars traded daily ( including derivatives, I think ) . So -- the answer is through manipulation of the price of gold. But perhaps the CB's aren't as unified as we think, and don't have as much control as we think they have. And the CB's are more allied with the US and the IMF than they are with the BIS. So -- it will probably take gold buying by the BIS to finally tip the scales -- and do what the CB's are unwilling to do. This will certainly not be publically announced, and it may not be at 280/oz. But -- it will come -- and as you say the longer the authoritis wait for this, the more unpleasant it will be.
I'll bet that some of the CB's are arguing that the drop in the price of gold is actually due to a world-wide 'deflation', and not due to the US dollar. Of course the CB's in the countries where the local price of gold is rising would disagree.
All we can do is wait and pray -- pray that the authorities do not wait too long to stabilize the US dollar. I would rather have a little commotiion now if the dollar drops, than world-wide depression with the US the last country standing. Better to have the dollar drop now. I think it is foolish to thing that if this happens that the US would avoid the depression cycle alogether. That 1% savings rate in the US says it all.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 11:07
Gandalf the White (Au SHORTS) ID#433301: - Looks as if the NY Shorts just removed about $2 from the spot price.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 11:00
Mad Hatter__A (shakytown) ID#284230: - 5.3 in Cal
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 10:56
Will__A (Rhoady RE: Anothers comments...) ID#234427: - Would you mind expanding on your view of anothers thoughts for the benefit of those of us who are relatively new to the group and not as familiar with Another as you may be? Skepticism is a healthy characteristic when dealing with money.
Thanks
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 10:48
rube (curious) ID#333127: - Does anyone have anything good to say about any of the PM's. Nearterm I can't think of a good reason for gold to go up.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 10:48
rube (curious) ID#333127: - Does anyone have anything good to say about any of the PM's. Nearterm I can't think of a good reason for gold to go up.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 10:46
tolerant1 (Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmnever less than drunk...........................) ID#373284: - Having spoken with God, no better man could be created within all the dreams I may have...upon the anvil I strike my hammer…this then is friend…and now a glass of wine with Mozart…......any who bring harm to Sheller is mine enemy...
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 10:43
lady_bug (Joey,) ID#320202: - hallo, nice seeing you
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 10:35
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (CIA ROCKET EXPLODES OVER CAPE!) ID#431263: - SAN FRANCISCO EARTHQUAKE--5.3 on the Richter!!!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 10:34
chas (rhody re lease rates) ID#147201: - How about emailing me re your discussion on lease rates. Tnax, Charlie cdevoto@abts.net
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 10:26
a.j. (DAVE @ 02:36) ID#257136: - Haven't done anything lately, but....
First, here's an url for Richard Maybury's page.
It can lead you to where the understanding of mozel is facilitated.
www.chaostan.com
As to my recent post which you may have missed, here it is.
Another tirade by one who has intimate knowledge of the animal which is devouring OUR Nation.
a.j. ( Rob Noel In your 22:22 you feel there are not enuf troops to do the job of
confiscation. ) ID#257136:
One part of me wants to believe that's rhe way it will go.
The other part of me remembers that ol b.j. was given authority to hire 100,000 Hong
Kong cops by the New Congress.
He has hired none as yet.
Hong Kong is no longer free.
He is in bed w/ the commie leaders.
They have been given a sea port.
Other commies have been given a complete military post.
The Presidio, with the military hospital and everything else.
All on the left coast ( appropos, no? ) for convenience's ,sake.
Ruby Ridge, Waco and the long forgotten incineration of Gordon Kahl here in
Arkansas.
These atrocitries, as well as the OKC bombing were deliberately done to test the
sheeples' tolerance for ambiguity and governmental cruelty.
The sheeple will accept anything.
They will even volunteer to help rob a hoarder if Martial Law is declared outright.
Never underestimate the cowardice of the New American.
Many of those under 55 years of age have never missed a meal or had to shiver
through a night under a shelter half in a freezing rain.
Or undergo any other hardship.
I don't think there are over 5% of our people who wll have the courage to stand
against the dipstick and his minions.
The remaining 95% will be shivering in their tracks and wondering what they can do
to speed up the process of rounding up the dissenters.
Of course, I would not want to be responsible for restraining the 5% or 13,000,000
who still have cojones.
And GUNS!
Don't forget that the mongol troops who quelled the disturbance in Tianenmen Square
are available to ol' b. j. and his masters.
As an addendum, to aid in the thinking through of my scenario, I offer the fact OUR
GREEN BERETS will be training the RED BERETS of the RED Chinese army in all
of our Special Forces weapons and tactics.
Howsabout that?
Don't it make ya wanna get it on b 4 they can consolidate their plans?
Wait and see and live and learn!
Boy do I hope the above is all a pipe dream!!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 10:26
rhody (@ DA: Did I read your essay correctly, or did you imply that) ID#411440: - a fall in the USD, would trigger a calling of loans to gold mines
that had financed their construction using forward sales? This
would mean that a rise in the POG is the last thing that many
gold mines would want! If this is true, what a goldbug needs is
a list of mines that have not and have a company policy against
hedging, or just buy physical.
Did I misunderstand or is the gold mining industry just as perverse
as human nature?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 10:25
Squirrel (vronsky - thanks for the url to the doomsdecade!) ID#280214: - I'm afeared that
The five years of grub I've got squirreled away is only the beginning.
Over the next few months I must squirrel away ANOTHER five years worth!
The latter to be in securely packed, de-oxygenated, pails and cans so
they can last until 2010.
Yes, the folks who plan on buying a little extra, i.e. a few extra
cans, boxes, and jars to tide 'em over for a few days or weeks are going
to be left starving out in the cold.
If friends & relatives show up at my door, and I can't turn them away,
then my ten years may be only enough for 10 months!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 10:20
PMF (Its early yet but...) ID#224363: - Dow didn't rise this morning nearly as fast as it fell yesterday. I would say that each and every down day is scaring more and more people out of the market.
Of course, the day is still young and a lot can happen in the next 5.5 hours. ( unless of course you are talking about gold and we all know that absolutely nothing will happen with it. Except maybe another CB will sell or lend some, or perhaps somemore mine hedging, or maybe even a swiss nazi gold scare )
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 10:16
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265: - vronsky -- Just the peception by people of what it MIGHT be can cause at least half the problems. 'Course, who can blame 'em...
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 10:16
rhody (@ John Disney: Go to the bottom of this page and click on) ID#411440: - the graph symbol at left, which takes you to CURRENT QUOTES & NEWS
Scroll down to GOLD & SILVER LEASE RATES and click on it.
It's just below the 24 hr charts hot link.
Or go to /gold.live3html ( I hate typing out URL's )
I am not an absolute believer in lease rates. It is one sign of
a pending bull. I would much rather see a drop in short term
lending rates in the US. I know what that would do, and we could
see it before any change in lease rates I think.
There are charts and graphs of past leasing patterns as well.
See the posting I made to neutron this morning for that URL.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 10:13
vronsky (Y2K…OPTIMIST, PESSIMIST OR WORSE?) ID#427357: -
There is growing concern about the looming MILLENNIUM MENACE. Many very well-known economists and analysts are voicing their concern over the potential dangerous fallout when computers may bite the dust on January 1, 2000. One of the more prestigious economists is Dr. Ed Yardini.
Recently, he published a report on the Y2K Bug. Dr. Yardini expresses grave concern about the potential dangers. He particularly criticized published Merrill Lynch reports - which to Yardini were under-estimating the possible gravity of the pending situation. He believes ML is unrealistically OPTIMISTIC. In essence Yardini said he was pessimistic about what will happen when computers worldwide are unable to distinguish between the year 2000 and 1900.
Although Ed Yardini frets about what will occur, Roger Voss feels Yardini still has not grasped the real magnitude of the problem. Voss made an insightful review and rebuttal on Ed Yardini's report. In contrast to Yardini's cautious pessimism about the dire ramifications of the Y2K peril, Voss is a unabashed DOOMSDAYER.
Per custom, it's necessary to delete the extra letters en in the word golden before pasting the URL to the Internet locator:
http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/voss081198.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 10:08
Grizz (Gollum) ID#424394: - methinks troops in the streets would have a very bloody time
trying to root out those kids with the streetsweepers.
Two handed 12gauges. Good gosh. Puts twin 44's to shame!
Puleese mister teenage gangsta superpredator,
my family is starving and all I got is Gold.
Could you spare a couple cans of tuna?
Blam, Blam, no thank you mam!
Now I gots the tuna AND the Gold! Har de Har Har!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:56
Silverbaron (vronsky) ID#289357: -
Actually, I believe that the Merrill Lynch numismatics endeavor was a limited partnership, rather than a Mututal Fund. Too bad nobody ( that I'm aware of ) is bold and contrarian enough today to open up a new one.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:53
John Disney__A (Im a believer...) ID#24135: - Rhody ..
Now where is the best place to follow
the lease rates ?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:53
Squirrel (Auric - re your 22:07. I ain't on the map!) ID#280214: - Which is fine by me.
Ole Mountain Goat and I shall be lost to Microsoft's eyes in the sky.
That and the thin air, cold & long winters, deep snows, damnable terrain, etc. etc. should keep the Y2K refugees out of our hair long enough for them to kill most of each other off. Come spring ( June ) we will be ready for 'em.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:50
vronsky (MERRILL LYNCH NOT ALWAYS BEARISH ON GOLD) ID#427357: -
REF: HopeFull ( MERILl bearish on gold all the way to $800.... )
in the 1970s...it's the party line.
Interesting you mention this. Yes, during nearly the entire gold bull of the 1970s the Illustrious Gurus at ML were consummatre Bearson the yellow meatal... that is until near the end of the GREAT GOLD BULL MARKET. Then the ML Illustrious Gurus decided to climb on the bandwagon in order to get their share of the action. Subsequently, they sponsored and were the investment management company for, GET THIS, A MUTUAL FUND that only invested in precious metals coins. It went public literally at the peak of the Gold Bull.
The results of the fund were disastrous. The NAV plummeted in short order. And if memory serves, ML was pummeled from all directions with law suits - finanally forcing it to liquidate the Fund.
Unfortunately, I do not remember the name of the Fund. If someone out there does, please post it - as I would like to research the story.
Also, would appreciate sources of more details of the Monumental ML fiasco.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:48
D.A. (gold.and.silver) ID#7568: - All:
Sorry not to have shared much info over the past while, but my main business is currencies and most of my energies are devoted in that direction.
The gold and silver markets have been exceedingly quiet over the past couple of weeks even though we have seen some price movement. The last rally in silver did not follow through as the houses that pushed some of the fund shorts to cover, left when the covering began. It is quite unclear what the positions of the large spec funds are at the moment. Best guess is neutral to a little short.
It is interesting to note that silver is behaving more like an industrial metal than anything else and is actually moving closely with the base metals as a whole.
On the gold side, the trade is focused on dollar/yen. This morning some news came out that Venezuala unloaded 1.6 million ounces over the first half of the year. The apparent reason was to bolster dollar reserves. South America in general has been a huge lender of gold into the market in an effort to shore up currency accounts. It is likely that other selling has occured in this area. BTW, the lease rates which are quoted for gold are annualized, so that a one month rate of 1% actually returns 1 / 1200 ounce in a months time.
Gold is still enslaved to the US dollar. Somewhere along the line the massive current account deficit will take its toll. When it does, owning gold will be a very fun thing. The fact that the Chinese are unloading Yen because they think that there is more downside, shows that CB's have turned into traders. They are no longer content to sit on a pile of reserves. Instead they feel the need to manage. If the dollar starts to go down, the management will be begin. They are trend-followers like the rest of us. Because they play with other peoples money, they can afford to be more foolish.
GFD:
With regards to the 'another' theories. The remonitization of gold is a possibility, albeit an extremely small one. It seems most unlikely to me that central banks and governments are going to relinquish perhaps their greatest power over their peoples.
The oil connection makes no sense whatsoever, as the scale of money is too small to matter. Put another way, Saudi Arabia et al is not going to be calling the global economic tune for any time to come.
If you want a fantasy about gold going to large numbers here is a much better one. Suppose that for some reason the dollar begins to fall and the price of gold begins to rise. Lets guess that the current lease book for mines is somewhere in the neighborhood of 120 million ounces. Lets also guess that the bullion banks make something on the order of 1 percent a year on the spread between borrowing the gold from central banks and loaning it to mines to sell so as to finance future production. This leaves the bullion banks making about 360 million dollars a year from the operation with gold at $300. Now each dollar rise in the price of gold knocks off 120 million dollars from the mark to market position of the gold loan. At some point in a price rise, the mark to market exposure of the bullion banks might get to some egregious level, like in billions of dollars. Now the bullion banks have to look at their loan portfolios and decide if its reasonable to allow the mines to hold mark to market losses of billions of dollars in order that they might recieve 360 million dollars a year in profits. They may decide that the gold loan business is too risky and simply call in the loans. This might result in a massive short squeeze with physical gold going into huge backwardation.
Ah the stuff of dreams.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:44
rhody (@ neutron: the in the nut shell pattern for the relationship of) ID#411440: - gold lease rates vs the price of gold is:
1. Before a gold bull begins, the 1 month lease rates decline to
below 1%. ( They are now .85%. )
2. They can remain below 1% for over a year ( eg Apr. '93 to Nov. '94 ) ,
but before there is a rise in spot POG, lease rates rise steeply
to 2% or more, then the POG moves up rapidly.
( In the last two weeks the lease rate has moved from .70% to .85% )
The above two points are signs that the bear is breaking.
3. The gold bull is in full form when 1 year lease rates get up to
3% ( about double present levels ) and forward rates for one year
get down to under 2.5% ( forward rate = profit margin between
interest on t-bills and the lease rate cost. Forward rates
are about 4% At this point, CBs lose control, and speculation
on the long side push the price up, along with short covering
from the previous bear.
This is the pattern from the past. God only knows what the CBs
( read FRB and puppet CBs ) will do next because in what's coming,
they will be protecting the reserve status of the USD. IMHO
The FRB may drive the entire world into a depression rather than
risk the status of the USD. I am very much afraid that they will
do this. If you were the US gov't which would you consider worse,
the world returning 3.6 trillion USD to your shores and saying give
us goods and services, or allowing the world to sink, and blaming
it all on the 'Asian Crisis'?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:40
Gollum (DOW +53) ID#35571: - Sheesh! What a difference a day makes.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:40
kitkat (@Bart) ID#208393: - Why did the Canadian Mint buy back the Mounties and melt them down?
Please share with us your perspective on what you foresee for the future price of gold. Has the sale of Mounties increased in the same proportion as the golden eagles?
P.S. Please give the quotes a boot so that we can see the price rising for a change. ( Check the code for a line that says if GOLD rises, then stop updating. Remove this line an ALL our problems are solved. ;- )
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:36
Gollum (@Squirrel ) ID#35571: - Yes sir. I can think of several places, even within a few city blocks of here, where the little kids are ALREADY packing 9mm's and .38s. Perhaps even a 12guage streetsweeper or two.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:32
Gollum (@trader_vic__A ) ID#35571: - Quite right. Even a broken clock is exactly right twice a day.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:30
Squirrel (RJ - Yowsah to your 01:57. Well Done!!!) ID#280214: - I especially liked the part about the starving Goldbug pleading to buy some food with his 1 ounce Gold coin while two 50-cals look down upon him from the roof.
This scene is right out of a likely Y2K reality check.
Okay - maybe not 50cals. But a 12gauge riotgun and an AK47!
The little kids will be packing 9mm's and .38s.
( Did I say the landscaping was mined with claymores? )
As fast as I can, I am converting any fiat scrip that comes through my hands to hard assets on my floor. The Rolly family would be plumb admiring of the pile of goodies I have set aside. But if they come knocking they would be met with dual 44's and a double-barreled 10 gauge.
We won't tell 'em what is hidden behind door #3.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:30
HopeFull (MERILl bearish on gold all the way to $800....) ID#402148: - in the 1970s...it's the party line.
HB
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:25
lakshmi__A (price of gold) ID#26350: - Ted Arnold is a constant gold bear ( has been correct of course in some instances, but didn't predict the last rise in price ) . Taking a constant view on the future of anything's price doesn't strike me as actually predicting. I remember Wayne Angel stating the correct price of gold was around $285.00/oz about a year ago, due to the average cost of production being reduced to that cost. It is interesting to speculate on the dollar price of an oz of gold and/or cost of production due to the fall of most currencies against the dollar. I can see that makes gold cheaper in dollar terms. But the nature of all paper currencies is to fluctuate in both directions isn't it, including the reserve currency ( US dollar ) , so that to me would indicate there will be changes ahead for the dollar as well. I was interested to see today that the Wall St. Journal finally admitted there is a global economy, not just Asia vs. the US. To keep prices up on anything, financial assets, produce, etc., there has to be someone on the buy side somewhere making an offer. One thought--perhaps the dumping by Central Banks is in reality the end of nations and so called national wealth. Surely individuals will buy gold irregardless of how much CB dumping there is--thereby the real wealth will fall again into the hands of men and women who are willing to take responsibility for the future of their families and personal interests. It is really the only way I see that individuals can do what is best in order to insure their futures and create stability in one's personal and community life. One's future should never be out of one's own hands, as decisions can only be made within the hearts and minds of souls, not by any crippling organizations like the IMF has turned out to be, and/or what we are calling governments in the world today. As individuals we must outshine in our vitues the aspirations of the IMF which are clouded, vague. Such an organization should not own gold to my way of thinking, should not interfere in the real life of the people of the world. False apprehension grows from endeavors which fall under the realm of propaghanda. Life is such a reality--and must be constantly in flux and under re-evaluation by our own personal thinking, feeling awarenesses--that is where stability comes from, human charity and faith and the ability to clearly see the future and prepare for it.
Regards, and thanks for the quote.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:25
trader_vic__A (Gollum - on Ted Arnold) ID#372228: - I understand your comment, but think that Ted will never cover his short positions because he will be one of the last Bears in the PMG market...If he didn't cover his shorts on silver when Warren bought, he won't cover his shorts on PMG until he is out of money...or out of his clients money.
Silver went from $4.18 to $7.50 and Ted was squeeling like a stuck pig all the way up...
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:25
cherokee (@....international.non.denomenational.chaos.and.flux.........) ID#288229: -
how bad is it going to get? look at how good it got....
the sewers have just started back-flowing....greed
and the buy-on-the-dips-for-lunch-bunch are birds
of a feather...
as equities crumble, and billy klinton's presidency
craters.......the worms will surely crawl from the
wood-work.....this portends quite a period of chaos
and flux.....
the embassy bombings are directly related to the current
yellow house occupants.....it is their legacy....as is
billy's sexual antics....it will be his.
this can only be positive for pog...negative for the
carbo-earth-anouts...
time was by wishbone ash......yes, the times wuz good...the
best ever.....now the white buffalo rides with his agenda.
cherokee!; ) ..dotssm.........hi.earl....mozel....e.beeeeee!!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:20
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265: - Messy79 -- Re: your 2:30 AM posting. I like that 'evolving constitution' thingy. Just how does that work? Does that mean it can mean something different on the whim and fancy of your 'elected' leaders? How 'bout changing it per day of the week. Perhaps we also have an 'evolving Bible'. Make anything mean whatever you want, whenever you want. This a 'feel good' type of thing?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:13
Gollum (@trader_vic__A ) ID#35571: - Also, during all the time Ted Arnold has been bearish on precious metals they have gone down.
What if before they go up, he becomes bullish and covers his shorts?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:05
newtron (Jin & ALL !) ID#388209: - Do you think those Chi Coms would pull their Yen unless they had alreay decided to officially dejure devalue the yuan ? IMHIPO, No Way !
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:05
trader_vic__A (Ted Arnold and his Gold Forcast - What a joke!) ID#372228: - Ted Arnold has most recently ( last 2 years that I know of ) has been a bear on precious metals and has been associated with the benine law suite aledging a cornering of the silver market by an unknown trading firm...later to be identified as Warren Buffett...Ted and his crowd are on the short side of everything precious and when this bull starts up he will be facing some very steep losses...just like when Warren pinched him. You will notice that Ted left out of his analysis any mention of the US$...and so if the dollar gets devalued by 50% or more, that immediately translates into a gold price of $600+/oz. that hardly looks like $200-$300/oz to me! Besides, no one, including the Central Banks want gold to go any lower than where it is now, so his analysis is full of Sh*t...Sorry Ted, you won't get away with talking it down this time...at least with me.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 09:01
newtron (rhody, Well at the risk of asking you to repeat yourself, in a nutt shell, what) ID#388209: - do it say !
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 08:58
Squirrel (Mozel - it's a matter of nutty ducks!) ID#280214: - If it works like a duck, walks like a duck, etc.
Granted that the ducks may be getting skinnier and that one must eat more of 'em to fill one's belly {I'm a BIG squirrel who's gone omnivore}.
I also grant you that it is all a game of make believe.
I make believe that the folding stuff in my pocket is money.
The nutshop makes believe it is good enough to sell me nuts for.
The nutdistributor makes believe it is good enough to sell nuts for.
The nutgrower makes believe it is good enough to sell nuts for.
The nut tree tenders make believe it is good enough to get paid in.
The grocers believe it is good enough to accept from the tree tenders.
And around and around it goes - as long as all involved have faith in it.
Break that faith - and I agree it is easier to do with fiat money -
and the whole circle or chain stops.
MY POINT, MOZEL is that before we or others undercut fiat money or it undercuts itself, we must restore people's faith in Gold. The easiest way to do that is to get it back into circulation so I can use it to buy nuts with. And the nuts in the bar across the street can use Gold to buy more Golden. FOR MOST PEOPLE GOLD IS AS ESOTERIC AS DIAMONDS OR MOON ROCKS. Sure the wife may have some on her finger but that's about it. That must be changed. Instead of folding fiat and a bunch of nickle-clad copper disks - we must get real Gold and Silver back in people's pockets. Then when the subject of Gold comes up, the average Joe or Jane can dig out a $10 or $20 Gold piece {about 10-grains} and see what your talking about.
Even the kids could see it - as they use GOLD TO BUY PIZZA WITH!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 08:52
rhody (@ Junior: here comes the war of words against gold. Lease rates) ID#411440: - at under 1% can't do it any more. Words have the advantage of being
cheap.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 08:44
Junior (Gold under Heavy Fire & Relentlessly Attacked - Still) ID#248180: -
WEDNESDAY AUGUST 12 1998 from The Finacial Times - London
Commodities
GOLD: Price forecast at $200-$300 over five years
By Kenneth Gooding, Mining Correspondent
The gold price will range between $200 and $300 a troy ounce in 1998 dollar terms during the next five years, according to Ted Arnold, analyst at Merrill Lynch, the investment bank.
Long-term forecasts of this type are unusual, but Mr Arnold, who said Merrill was asked to produce one for a client, gives some of the reasoning behind the predictions in Merrill's latest Base & Precious Metals Monthly publication.
He suggests prices significantly below $200 an ounce would cause drastic production cuts and even closures.
It would also spark a considerable volume of investment buying in the west on the view that gold is 'dirt cheap' and should rise in the medium term for a useful capital gain. Sub-$200 prices would certainly produce an awful lot of investment buying interest in the price sensitive demand centres of the world: India, the Middle East and Asia.
However, prices substantially above $300 an ounce would encourage disinvestment from these regions and renewed bouts of forward selling by gold producers.
Prices above $300 would also encourage central banks to sell much more from their gold reserves. Mr Arnold suggests that, at some point in the next five years, the International Monetary Fund will sell some of its gold reserves.
Mr Arnold, reputed to be one of the market's big bears, suggests the European Central Bank will be a filter for other central bank sales. We are looking at some 12,000 tonnes of 'free' central bank gold eventually available for sale to the market.
Other analysts involved in long-term forecasting are not as pessimistic as Mr Arnold. Philip Klapwijk, at the Gold Fields Mineral Services consultancy said that if the dollar remained strong and there were no international political upheavals, $300 an ounce in real terms was reasonable but $200 is excessively bearish. I would be more comfortable with a forecast of $250 to $350.
Looking further ahead, Mr Arnold suggests the Asian crisis will stimulate economic reform in the region similar to that in Europe after the second world war, since when French and Germans have progressively sold their gold holdings.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 08:31
rhody (@ newtron: I can't give you my lease rate vs gold price graph,) ID#411440: - as it is hand drawn, but I can give you th URL for the lease rate
base graph. It can be found at /history.leaserates.html
I superimposed the gold prices onto this graph by hand.
Very illuminating.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 08:23
robnoel__A (John Disney....you are right we agree to disagree on that....do you know this link from SA .........) ID#411112: -
http://www.barney.co.za
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 08:21
JIN (the news read.......) ID#206358: - .........Apart from Wall Street, the early mood was also influenced by a BBC
news report that said the Chinese government has been reducing its
yen-dominated foreign currency holdings as the Japanese currency
weakens.
The news report, which traders heard over their radio first thing in the
morning, said the Chinese state administration is understood to have
sold off billions of dollars' worth of Japanese bonds to cut its exposure
to the yen. It added that officials say China is likely to offload more if
there is a further slide in the value of the yen.
Analysts said about one third of China's US$140 billion in reserves
were in yen, and by unloading the battered Japanese currency, China is
sending a strong signal that it thinks there is more downside, while at the
same time adding to anxiety levels in the market.
.............
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 08:20
rhody (@ neutron: I see that you too expect the BIS to become tired) ID#411440: - of the machinations of the FRB, and to step in if the POG should
drop below 280. I hope that you have more than merely the words
of ANOTHER to base this opinion, as many on this forum are now
sceptical of any words from that source.
World wide competetive currency devaluations are making the
costs of production for gold in local currencies cheaper and
cheaper. For example, the average cost of prodcution in SA
was over $300 per oz last year, and now it is closer to $200.
In Canada, the costs based on exchange have dropped to 260
per oz. Because of these artificial economies, the drop in
the POG has not lead to as much curtailment of production as
one would normally expect. Hence the POG has tended to fall
faster than even lease rates can account for. This is a
negative feedback system which continues until collapse of
all local currencies, or the USD. The question remains,
when or will the BIS intervene? If the BIS does intervene, it
may not be at 280, but lower again based on currency driven
economies. Please note: these are mining costs, not total
costs per oz.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 08:09
JIN (Global's future and option infos address?help please?Thanks!) ID#206358: - rgds
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 08:06
newtron (rohdy, I certainly do not know, but since I know that despite all the subtrefuge to the ) ID#388209: - contrary, the CB's know the true value of Gold & therefor I'm guessing it is the latter !
Also, 12% interest is not too expensive when you consider the commissins charged, the T- Bill arbitrage of say 5.7% in hand & the mouth watering potential of riding the short downon POG to the tune of say $20 bucks in one weak !
For that they do the bidding of Wall Sreet & the US Treasury !
All, ofcourse, IMHIPO, unschooled as it may be !
Y.O.S.,
TAR BABY
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 08:06
JIN (JTF/DONALD,Thanks for the update news!) ID#206358: - Donald and Jtf,
Yes,china in troubles ahead!Even now,they need helping hands from Hong kong and Taiwan to raise the fund for the flood victims.Many charities orgs set up,appr 500 millions worth food/supply been send up.....!Think that more negative effects turn up soon!Total agrred with you two!
rgds
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 08:03
John Disney__A (Death Penalty.) ID#24135: - for Robnoel
To argue if the death penalty
is a DETERENT is stupid.
It is a very effective means of
ELIMINATION.
Mbeki is a jerk. Mandela is a
total jerk. Clinton is a jerk.
.. Yassa and the Libyan helped
Mandela when he needed help. He
is a little slower to stab his
allies in the back than some other
leaders. I find it hard to
criticise him for THAT ( although
there is plenty more to criticise
him for ) . I suggest we dont start
this kind of crappy time wasting
argument. I know your position.
It is totally negative.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 08:00
Gollum (Great thoughts) ID#35571: - Look carefully and you will see how the great thought of WJC compares with these many others:
http://www.execpc.com/~jfish/quotes.txt
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:58
Leland (Commodity Research Bureau -- Comments After Trading Closes Today Will Be Interesting) ID#316193: -
http://www.crbindex.com/index.htm
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:56
newtron (rhody Would you post your lease rate chart or is it top secret propritary) ID#388209: - & mystical like the riddles of the ruddy Knight's Templar, Ben ?
Y.O.S.
TAR BABY
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:55
rhody (2 neutron: @ .85% for one month gold means an annual rate of) ID#411440: - .07%. Now that's cheap enough to encourage the gold carry despite the
danger of shorting gold near 25 year lows, on the brink of a meltdown
of the USD. I don't find a .85oz per 100 oz borrowed, per month, a
particularly attractive rate if t-bills are 5.6%
The idea with lease rates is to create the impression of worthlessness
for gold. .85% per month = 10.2% per year, if the former. This
is expensive, not worthlessness! So IMHO, it is the latter.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:53
JTF (Disorder in China after massive flood) ID#57232: - All: A followup to Donald's posts about this. 240 million people affected, authorities called in to maintain order.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/china/china.htm
I think this is the end of the current Chinese 8%/year expansion cycle. There will be the typical cyclic economic contraction in China, with civil unrest and military crackdowns. In a few years or so, the economic expanion will begin again, slightly altered, but with the Communists still in total control.
Also - think about all of those warehouse full of unsold goods. Don't know what they are.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:47
Silverbaron (jims) ID#289357: -
Looks like there are only two alternatives here with commodities, - wheat, gold, silver, oil, copper, mining stocks, etc., etc.
( 1 ) This is 'blood running in the streets' time, a la Nathan Rothschild, and you can be rich if you are a contrarian with guts, OR
( 2 ) We are at the crest of an economic collapse tidal wave ( not far off ) , and you will lose money on EVERYTHING except perhaps cash held in so-called hard currencies...'blood running in the streets' as a buying opportunity is still some ways off.
Personally, I'm betting about 35-40% on the former scenario, 60-65% on the latter. Things in the next couple of months may get really interesting. This is not a time to be bold, except with money you can afford to lose, or at least you can wait to recoup the paper loss.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:46
jims (To Silverbaron and Neutron) ID#253418: - Thanks for the update on the political risk insurance that PAASF may have purchased. Wonder if that includes being run out of town by the Mafia. Look forward to any update.
PAASF recent press release said they had had prepared and were reviewing bankable feasibility study on Russian silver mine.
Silver up to $5.25 - it's a rally - lower the lease rates, throw in some frequent flyers miles to willing borrowers. Stop the run!!!
Donald you are great with the references - must have gotten A+ in school -thanks.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:40
STUDIO.R (@and strat.........) ID#288369: - Law, my friends, is the absence of love WoW.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:40
robnoel__A (John Disney.....With all due respect the death penalty as you know is still enforced here in the USA) ID#411112: -
unfortunatly it has done nothing to stop thugs from killing....Mbeke in my opion is a jerk things will get worse now that SA new best buddy Yassa now joins Gadafi to recieve SA highest honour
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:40
rhody (@ Gollum et al: Yes, it's exactly the inverse. Yesterday at ) ID#411440: - this time the S&P was down 8, and now its +8.10
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:39
Gollum (@sharefin ) ID#35571: - A quiet lesson
Quiet as a morning pool
Followed by so few
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:38
STUDIO.R (@and Eldo..........) ID#288369: - ( If elections made any difference, they would ban them! ) ...amen, brother.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:36
jims (More on Wheat) ID#253418: - Dec Wheat closed at $270 1/4, Sept Wheat at $2.50 - you have to go back to 1977 to find prices below $2.50 for front month wheat. What would you say the inflation adjusted price of wheat is, now.
All I can say is APH you've put on an interesting trade but like everything else its in a down trend.
Man I missed that one. Wished I'd shorted wheat back in 1996 at $7 - who would have guessed then the price would be cut by 2/3rds. Gosh I hope all those lovely people just featured on the CNN report about the market who have no fear of this little stock market correction, don't have the same thing happen to their 401s, IRAs, and other savings funds.
I'd say we are in for a recession.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:35
newtron (rhody, mine is only the rude uneducated ignorant guess of ANOTHER,) ID#388209: - but Iguess strongly that it is the former. 1 point/mo for a lease of gold sounds cheap to me for some one to loan precious Gold, even if the stuff never leaves the CB's vault. It's only 12% /year. Calling the lease rate 1% / mo. makes it sound like Gold is worthless doesn't it ? Like it's a harmless after thuoght of thoughtful Central Bankers merely earning a little over head for the people from the Gold sweepings on the floor. What marketing wizards & wordsmiths these fine young cannibles are ! We mustn't alarm the people & inform them that their patrimony is subject to the wreckless credit default risk of the Pirate Carry Trade !
What is incredible is that you & others report that the 1 year lease term is under two %. Wow, now that's an incredible inverted yield curve. It would be like T-bills @ 12% & the long bond @ 2% ! What kind of recession/depression does that signal.
In fact, this is merely the engine/mechanism to the whole rotten Pirates of the Carrybien Trade allegory of Ben's dream revelation scheme to depress the POG & the US Treasury's herding the world into subsidizing & floating the boat of the US short term deficit finacing debacle in progress & to float the boat of RR's yachting pals at Goldman Sucks Your Money & various assorted fat cat insiders of Wall Street !
In order to herd the World's money into UST'S & the S&P, the POG must be kept at artificially low levels even if they have to give the lease rate away to weary & leary speculators who have heard the far off twilight bark of the guard dog BIS & now @ $280, they can hear the vicios growl & see the sharp incisors of Ben's canine friend !
Later, I will share the secret of the Fandango dance of the moin a tuo, as revealed to me by my canine spirit guide dog, gentle Obie One Canobie One, Ben the wonder dog !
Y.O.S.
TAR BABY
PS, Don't you think I could give ANOTHER a piss for his money ?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:33
JTF (COSCO) ID#57232: - All: What is the next step? Allow COSCO to join hands with our military by letting them bring cheap workers to a site in Los Angeles to build missles? Just think how much we could save on our defense expenditures if we could subcontract to the Chinese!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:31
rhody (@ jims: last time I looked, silver was up 6 cents to about $5.25) ID#411440: - as the yen firms 2.1 to the dollar to just over 1.45.
Re. PAAF, that 650 million oz of Russian silver is real, but only
if you want to risk hundreds of millions invested in a country
which may implode. Two other concerns: Any business investment
in Russia means picking up a relationship with the Russian Mafia.
The Mafia is that widespread. That 650 million oz, what is its
cost per oz for extraction? Twelve dollars? I have heard no
feasibility reports on the project.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:31
JTF (Al Haig and COSCO) ID#57232: - All: Are we importing foreign missles to the US for communications satellite launches? Looks like COSCO is the beneficiary.
What really disturbs me is that we cannot afford to use our own missles anymore -- what happened to that private firm that was to make cheap launch missles to supplant NASA? I guess we no longer have access to our own technology, or the interest in using it. Perhaps we just export the technology, and they buy the launch missles after they are built.
There is one problem with this, as we well know. Those missles can be sold to other interested buyers. And, we have lost yet another technology to foreign hands. Whatever happened to good old American ingenuity? Perhaps it is the high cost of labor that has lead to this. Much cheaper to build missles in China.
I don't like the looks of this.
http://www.WorldNetDaily.com/btlines/980812.btl.long.march.long.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:29
STUDIO.R (@happiness is..........) ID#288369: - a golden gazefuss, of the 20 oz. class. clanga-a-langa ding dong.
EB...you are a zick puppy. zi zenor. off to da' studio.muzac
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:26
Donald (A multi-year global decline in wheat prices) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980810/crown_futu_1.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:23
Gollum (Inverse) ID#35571: - This morning practically everything that was down yesterday morning is up and vica versa. Except not quite as much.
So I guess the markets will be up in the morning followed by a sell off in the afternoon.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:23
Silverbaron (jims, newtron, et al @ PAASF Dukat, Russia venture) ID#289357: -
According to a research report from Salman Partners dated March 11, 1998 - Pan American plans to purchase political risk insurance for the Dukat venture in Russia. I have just this morning sent an inquiry to the company to determine whether ( 1 ) this is the case ( 2 ) if so, what are the terms and who is the underwriter of the insurance.
I will post any information received in this regard.
Research reports can be obtained through the 'contact us' section of the Pan American Silver website:
http://www.panamericansilver.com
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:22
rhody (@ sas: Thank you. I had come to that conclusion as well.) ID#411440: - The gold carry only works in a bear market, and low lease rates
accelerate the bear. The reverse also applies. The longer the
bear in gold lasts, the longer and more explosive is the following
bull.
With some gold stocks at 15 to 20% of their 1997 highs, gold is
telling us that the DOW will plunge to similar lows in this cycle
if one applies a contrarian rationale. God is telling us that
we are in for a depression.
WHY CAN'T THE FRB SEE THIS AND HEAD THIS THING OFF BEFORE IT'S
TOO LATE! Sorry for shouting ( not shouting at you ) but I find
the political and financial machinations intolerable at times.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:22
Mtn Bear (SE) (Fabian Sell) ID#347267: -
Tue, Aug 11 1998
This is a special Fabian report for Tuesday August 11th. Sell Signals have been generated in the Domestic and International Plans funds. It is therefore recommended to move all domestic equity funds and international/global funds into money market positions.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:21
Donald (Chinese retail prices in steady slide since last October.) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980812/china_infl_1.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:21
STUDIO.R (@Many thanks to.........) ID#288369: - mozel, for his fervent and brilliant posts. I was worried during your absence.
cherOkee, for stopping by while barefoot dancing on the white hot sands.
SDRer......thanks for the memories and..........WHERE DA' HELL ARE YOU?
;^ ) ~ ...and BART.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:18
jims (Weekly Chart of Wheat) ID#253418: - $2.72 wheat looks like about as low as its been since 1990 and for years before that. Man this is deflation.
http://router.minot.com/~bohl/display.pl
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:17
Donald (Chilean peso weakens on Asia worries; stocks slump.) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980811/chile_stoc_2.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:16
sas (Nick@C) ID#289187: - Spotted your posts yesterday regarding Normandy. NDY is one of my long term holdings so I haven't sold any during the recent plunge. However, I felt obliged to buy some more last week at 1.22 and a heap today at 1.12, as well as call options. This stock doesn't have the massive upside that some other mining stocks have, but it has a certain inevitability that I like. After a disastrous year in its base metals business, it will still earn close to last year's $120M profit. If the bottom for NDY wasn't today, it should occur prior to the release of full year results on Aug 19.
Cheers, sas
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:08
jims (Thank you SAS and to Newtron re PAASF) ID#253418: - PAASF had been holding $8 very well as silver was in the $5.25-50 range. It broke on the worening news from Russia. Furthermore I believe that the Russian mine will require them to spend much of their cash in the development process. They have a feasibility study in their hands I read today in a press release they issue a week or two ago. I think the break in PAASF is due to their Russian involvement and the prospect that company resources spent there may be lost. Additionally, a big chunk of the 650 million ozs they claim as reserves in each of their releases is in that Russian mine. Investors may be writting that off and getting down to what's left of the company.
Anybody have a current silver quote - still up only 3 cents - saw London was at $5.20.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:04
JTF (Oops! forget website -- M Drudge) ID#57232: - xttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/clinton/
stories/report081298.htm
Please paste together, and replace xttp with http
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 07:03
JTF (Wonder who leaked this one) ID#57232: - All: From Matt Drudge. Kenneth Starr report to be released in weeks, focus to be only on Monicagate. The Whitehouse spinmeisters are already at it, saying that this is good news for WJC.
And -- if Janet Reno can hold her breath regarding campaigngate independent counsel, does that mean that Kenneth Starr's grand juries etal get dismantled before Campaigngate gets investigated?
Looks like what will bring down WJC will be the market fortunes, not Kenneth Starr. Even a popular president cannot withstand the pummeling of a market gone sour. Campaigngate will probably stagnate until then.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 06:57
jims (APH) ID#253418: - Pretty good targets. Is December wheat really at $2.72 - my gosh I haven't been watching that. That must be a 20 yr low, almost. $2.72 Dec wheat!!!! I've got to look that one up. That's got to be pretty close to the cost of production. Wonder what the lease rate is on wheat Just a nonsensical joke, don't want to create any animosity.
I hope you'll see your $276 Dec gold - would be surprise to see that number and not $4.95 silver, agian.
$2.72 what can't believe it.
Rhody we should fiqure out if a 1% one month lease rate is 1/12th of one percent for a month or in fact 1%
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 06:57
sas (Lease Rates) ID#289187: - Rhody - lease rates are almost always quoted as per annum rates. Therefore, a 1 month lease rate of 1% means your interest rate will be 1/12 of an ounce per month for every 100 ounces borrowed. As you suggest, this is what makes the gold carry trade attractive provided that gold is in a bear market.
Cheers, sas
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 06:56
Dave (@I finally got it Sharfin.....) ID#261155: - thanks...
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 06:53
newtron (Jims) ID#388209: - Cannot disagree with your dismal observation about PASSF invovement in the inscrutable enigma, but can't the weakness in it's share price be easily explaimed as the share's a liquid proxy for he POS ? It appears to mirror POS & not so much turmoil in Russia. Do you really believe that the Russia play is such a drain on it's reserves ? I don't think so, but if that perception helps to drag down it's price, I would salivate even more when Ag zigs it's bottom here shortly! That is if, I had any cash to commit away from my precious S&P shorts !
Y.O.S.,
TAR BABY
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 06:51
Speed (Japan wants yen at 130 to the dollar) ID#29048: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980812/japan_mof__1.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 06:50
Speed (Early metals news...) ID#29048: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980812/markets_pr_1.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 06:50
JTF (European Markets mostly in the black this AM) ID#57232: - All: My guess is that the US markets will head up today. Wish I could say the same for South American equities -- everyone please scan Donalds posts about SA this AM. Anyone hear from D.A.? What worries me is that there is alot of US investment in South America. This is very different from the SEAsia meltdown. Looks alot closer to home, doesn't it? Goldbugs beware, you may not like what you wish for.
Also: Someone mentioned last night that the US dollar's demise might begin with a country awash with US dollars from trade, such as China or Japan. Makes sense, especially given the fact that the US trade deficit is going to go into the stratosphere.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 06:48
Dave (@sharfin) ID#261155: - would you repost that thing for Desee, or send it to my email..
coolto32.hotmail.com.please
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 06:43
rhody (@ neutron: I'm glad you find my lease rate posts interesting.) ID#411440: - I'm still learning about them. I have a graph of one month lease
rates plotted back over the past ten years, on which I have
superimposed the spot POG. It makes an interesting pattern, which
I have summarized several times on this forum.
I am still unsure about what a one month lease rate of 1% means.
It either means that at the end of one month, a leaser must pay
back 101 oz after borrowing 100 oz or, it means the leaser must
pay back 100 oz plus 1/12 oz. If the former, that's a pretty
steep interest rate on money, and I don't see the gold carry being
economic. I lean toward the latter, annualized rate as the
only possibility that makes the gold carry possible.
What do you think?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 06:42
APH (Trading) ID#255226: - Jims - Here's where I'm at right now;
SnP - Flat, would short top of cannel today approx. 1084.
gold - Flat, still looking for 276 Dec
Silver - Flat, still looking for 5.10 Dec, it may have already bottomed
Wheat - Long from 2.72 Dec
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 06:40
Dave (@BTW, No Agnecy of the U.S.) ID#261155: - may rule or hear a question which has to do with the constitutionality
of the rules they operate under.....that priviliege is reserved explicidly to the Judiciary branch of the Government, in particular the Supreme court.....So Mozel.....if Igot's lil problem with the Rubin boy!!!....I would plead that it wasn't really Rubin that was the problem, but the Constitutionality of the Rules that he is working under, that was/is the problem..THE AUTHORITY BY WHICH RUBIN CLAIMS TO ACT AND/OR NOT ACT...and get my matter heard in a REAL Court AND not by some administrative....yahoooooooooo ^smile^......
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 06:36
strat (sharefin) ID#93241: - Didn't Thomas DeHartmann quote Gurdjieff as saying, When you live among the wolves, you must howl like a wolf?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 06:31
sharefin (Why not) ID#284255: - Be still
So Lao Tse advised
Silence the breath
Still the tumult of the intrusive mind
Be still
And let the Golden Lotus
Unfold in heavenly beauty
Only be still
Commanded the Zen Master
And the unuttered may be heard
The mind illumined with
The unspoken word
Be still
Advised Gurdijeff
And let the work unfold
Effort destroys the work
Govern the unconscious flow
And Spirit will instruct without words
The seeker on the way
Be still
Said the carpenter
In the quiet mind speak with the Father in secret
Be still
The lord Buddha said
Put all desire away
Only be still
And enter into unity with him
Be still
The lord Vishnu said
Be still
Calm the mind
Master thought
And so escape the wheel
Be still
Counselled Mahomet
Be still
And he will reward thee with peace
The Masters teach us thus
To be still
The vision is seen only in deep quiet
The gift granted to the still spirit
The treasure is nurtured in the soundless centre
It is a great vanity to seek it beyond the self.
~~~~
Back to the neighbours BBQ
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 06:28
newtron (rhody, I have just awakened from my dreams about you & the intriguing notions) ID#388209: - that you have arroused in my mind whilst ruminating on the lease Gold concepts that you have commented on recently. What an odyssey of the mind for this little grasshopper, like Jimmy Carter on a trip of
Purple California Sunshine !
In my sleep & dreams, Ben came to me & said, with no particular excitement or accent, in a malted sort of muted breathy tongue, do you Know the Twylight Bark of the BIS ? You are worthy, but first you must solve to me the riddle of what thing Roosevelt & Hitler & Lenin had most in common !
Then, in surreal fashion, Ben danced the Fandango on his authoritic hips & sang a song about, Buddy the unworthy First Dog & his moin a tua with the mongrols of the black pirates of Carrybien Gold trade.
If you cannot guess the answer to the Templar's riddle you may e-mail Buddy at: rsa/diz.fridgedair.com or you can signal your resignation to me & I will forward another clue as to the Fandango & the unholy dance of the moin a tua ( sp? ) prirates !
Y.O.S.,
TAR BABY
PS- Rhody, Please, I have tried not to lose sleep over PASSF's investment in Russia as you know the elixer of producing Gold, priced in USDs in a toilet paper currency. Also, the ruskies, although inefficient & corrupt, do have a history of mining & exchanging the PMs for hard exchange which is some thing that even Lenin could grasp !
At least there is always Hope ! That is, only after Faith, Chastity & her sister, Charity, have turned you down !
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 06:04
jims (Gosh South and Central America headed lower and ) ID#253418: - Rhody pans PAASF. Have to agree I don't want anything to do with anything that has russian in the mix. PAASF could be a pretty good little stock but will be under preasure for its Russian experiment until the metal is freely floowing and being converted into $$$ - which I'll bet is a long way off. Been watching the stock and considering it as a silver play but its really a call option on Russian survival as a silver mine.
The problem with Russsia of course is if you stop the IMF support what happens - more implossion. Ugly picture.
What's APH perdicting or doing - anybody see - probably bought silver at $5.16 and the S&P at 1060 - probably two sloppy days up then down again for both.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 05:55
Dave (@mozel...well to get back to the Rubin) ID#261155: - question and excetera....if you want to look up title 5 at sec.554.you will see in the annotated version, that and Administrative agency can't rule on the Constitutioanality of the rules they operate on..^Smile^
under the jurisdiction section!!!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 05:51
Donald (Bema gold news) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980811/bema_secon_1.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 05:47
Donald (@Rhody) ID#26793: - Looks like there are more ratholes for the IMF to throw money down today. Russia is a bottomless pit.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 05:44
Donald (Peruvian currency falls sharply) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980811/asian_worr_1.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 05:36
Donald (Venezuelan indians blocking access to gold miners.) ID#26793: - http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/international/story.html?s=v/ap/980810/international/stories/venezuela_lost_world_1.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 05:33
John Disney__A (Ugly Americans I saw the movie..) ID#24135: - To anyone ..
Americans made very bad impression in Nairobi.
Despite efforts by Israelis and French to help
those trapped in demolished building next to
embassy, Yanks only isolated Embassy building
itself and refused assistance to rescue
activities next door.
Was this reported in controlled US press.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 05:32
Donald (Mexican peso under renewed pressure) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980811/analysis_m_2.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 05:24
Donald (Brazilian currency stumbles; CB said to intervene. Devaluation will dwarf Mexico, 1994) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980811/brazil_mar_1.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 05:18
Donald (Indonesia says it is not defaulting; just re-scheduling ) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980812/indonesia__1.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 04:53
rhody (@ Donald: Thank you for your Russian post. Anybody who puts) ID#411440: - money into Russia needs their head examined. They have a tradition
of being a monetary black hole. During the Civil War in 1936, Spain
sent her gold reserves to Russia for 'safekeeping'. After Franco
won, they never came back. The Russian govt has a history of
defaulting on bonds, not because they are broke, but because of
policy. Foreign investors are never given compensation when Russia
undergoes one of its intermittent upheavals. Perhaps this partly
explains the share weakness of PAAF, and BGO, both of whom have
made recent investments in Russian pm deposits ( and diluted shareholders
interest in perfectly viable western orebodies in order to do so ) .
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 04:41
mozel (@Disney) ID#153102: - Thanks. Hope it was a margin squeeze. BBL.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 04:36
John Disney__A (Sorry ) ID#24135: - Mozel ..
I must have dozed off..
I assume you mean that big dump
last week that took it below
2 bucks the first time .. I guess
it was a fund In any event, it
was a very costly sale ..
But I have no idea who it was ..
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 04:33
aurator () ID#255284: - Auproducer
At last you're back. email heading your way. Steinie futures always good. November? Our early spring ( 19C ) yesterday is v worrisome, I suspect it'll be shirty for some time. But I guess you know something about the fishing I don't.
Mozel.
Point taken.
Good to see you posting. Settlement details will be posted this weekend on classifieds.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 04:30
John Disney__A (Rob Ernie Els .. How dare you) ID#24135: - Farmers in RSA are frequent targets for violence.
The latest development is that they are threatening to
withhold taxes until attacks on farms stop.
This threat led Derek Hanecom ( Afrikaaner ANC
member and Agriculture Minister ) to complain
that the farmers never stopped paying tax when
Apartheid was in force.. The obvious response
was that under the Apartheid Government they were safe. Now they are not.
However, Blacks did not pay tax or rent under
Apartheid and still dont ..
In a weekend attack on Apple Grove farm
near George, 4 people were murdered after a night
of rampage involving 6 other crimes including an
attempt to rob Ernie Els' house. The suspect
was apprehended after a shootout at a roadblock.
When Chief dork Mandela is put out to pasture ..
they can re-introduce the death penalty and things
will improve ..
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 04:22
mozel (@Disney) ID#153102: - It's when those ROR's congress that they are insufferable.
I keep posting to you asking if you know who dumped 500,000 Drooey at $2.
Do you ?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 04:17
mozel (@Squirrel) ID#153102: - I don't think you get it, Squirrel. You can make believe rocks are nuts and people can make believe paper is money, but make believe nuts are going to break your teeth and make believe money is not going to spend one day. By successive devaluations, you reach zero, do you not ?
The paper has already gone past zero at least once by little steps. But, now, I think we are in the period of giant steps. Round and round the world that's what I see. All the paper in the world is derivative of a make believe money of credit issued on a make believe debt. What else would you call a debt that can never be paid ?
Now, here's something you can do as a consortium of one. You can stop and ask yourself that if No State can make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debt and if a tax is collected as a common law action at debt ( and the Supreme Court said it was a long, long time ago ) , just who and what are you paying State taxes to. It sure as hell ain't no constitutional state. So what mafia is it ? And why are you working for them ?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 04:17
Donald (Chinese yuan will not get intervention support from the U.S. or Japan) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980812/japan_yen__1.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 04:14
Donald (Russia: going, going............) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980811/russia_usa_2.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 03:59
John Disney__A (Too Much Barking ..) ID#24135: - To all ..
Yen pulled itself together and gold looks better.
Gold Index here is flat at the open and the Rand
is at at 6.28. Spot gold is 285.3.
Ben wishes to remind all those other dogs who
barked at the indices last night .. Barking only
makes them go BACK UP .. IF you want them to go
DOWN .. you must be very quiet .. it's like catching
a squirrel.
For Mozel ..
If the world was full of RORs .. I would be on the
next moon rocket.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 03:33
Auric (Leland) ID#240288: -
Thanks for the links, especially the one to Nick Chase. A fine, scary read, complete with a Halloween orange background and black lettering. Just the thing to sent a Goldbug peacefully off to sleep. Good night all.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 03:22
Leland (HighRise, You Asked About Russia. This Link (Unreliable) From Russia Does Tell Us a Lot) ID#31876: -
http://www.interfax-news.com/TodaysFSUNews/today.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 03:11
AuProducer (Back On The Net) ID#256223: - Aurator- There are no reporting requirements for US citizens on any purchase of Gold, coins bullion or otherwise. A US citizen may sell up to 99oz a day without reporting requirements. I am back on line after a week computer failure. I lost EVERYTHING. Please send me an email. I arrive NZ November 20 and fully expect to redeem my Steinlager futures which as I remember were valued in US dollars.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 03:08
Leland (Nick Chase Has Some Strong Opinions Every Kitcoite Should Read (Linked From Fiend's Super Bear Page)) ID#31876: -
http://fennel.assumption.edu/view/warmline.htm
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 03:07
mozel (@aurator) ID#153102: - On all this reporting CRAP, I consider first the policy of the Congress and the Commander In Chief, to wit, DON'T ASK, DON'T TELL
What about Bart's free classifieds ? And a solution for the little matter of SETTLEMENT.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:44
aurator (Reporting requirements--Bullion---Kiwi Gold Coins -- Mounties--) ID#257148: - Robnoel/anyone
Are there any reporting/accounting requirements for American citizens when purchasing not bullion but collectible bullion coins from a foreign jurisdiction, say NZ?
The reason I ask is that the NZ mint considers the kiwi 9999 gold bullion coin ( with 11 less edges than the Mountie ) a collectors coin, rather than a bullion coin. Therefore the cost for 1 oz ( current US$330.50 in lots of 10 +p &p ) reflects the fact that it is ( a ) collectible and ( b ) guaranteed to contain only New Zealand gold, which, as everyone in the free world knows, is clean, green & serene gold.
NZ has such strict Privacy Laws that purchasers' details are virtually guaranteed to remain confidential, the seller would find itself in deep doo doo.. No sales taxes and no reporting requirements on sales.
Is it of any benefit to buy such things from NZ?
Would you buy a used kiwi from this aurator?
Sorry if this sounds like a plug, but we're all going down the gurgler..
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:43
mozel (@RJ) ID#153102: - Congratulations on acquiring an admirer. You guys can lean on each other since he obviously doesn't want to stand on his own two feet.
Evolving Constitution, my ass. Let's just get it on the table. Government evolving by Act of Congress according to No Constitution is what messy and ROR want so they can take what of our lives, our liberties and other property, and our pursuit of happiness they please from the rest of us.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:36
Dave (@what did you do) ID#261155: - a.j.? since I ca't go back...to previous page here....
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:33
Dave (@sharfin...thanks) ID#261155: - I can't load whatever you put there.....could you email it to coolto32@hotmail.com for me....thanks in advance...maybe you got to join that thing before you can use url
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:30
messy79__A (RJ) ID#293184: - I have been a lurker here for 6 months or so, getting 'educated' by some very bright people who seem to be going broke while they are 'right' and
remain very reactionary, hoping for the good old days of rugged individualism and the Constitution as it use to be but happens to be in evolution just as computer technology evolves. Anyway I pay my bills with digital money from my home computer and I am grateful not to be bothered wheeling around a cart full of gold coins just to go shopping, like in the good old days. But I do trade XAU just to make money; I don't love the XAU. In summary, I agree with RJ. Regards.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:29
Dave (@that is a cool looking link ) ID#261155: - Mozel...and if you have anymore laying around I would appreciate seeing them....well it looks like my puter is going to co-operate now that I am getting tired......
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:26
RJ (..... James @ CDF .....) ID#411259: -
Containing Definite Facts?
Certain Dumbass Folly?
Cretin Demanding Focus?
Crummy Disingenuous Foible?
Certainly Doo wa diddy For y’all?
These are some CDF possibilities.
What does your's mean?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:26
mozel (@George) ID#153102: - Well, I'm all for peace, but do you know anything that will stop a congress of the ROR's of this world besides a bullet ?
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:26
sharefin (Dave) ID#284255: - Deesse does'nt have a web page.
She is a regular at Avid Chat.
At http://avidtrader.com/chat/
You'll have to register to access the forum.
She's a great trader with a lovely personality.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:20
Auric (Earl @ 01:48) ID#255151: -
That 01:48 post presented other side of that coin very clearly and succinctly. Hadn't considered how utterly dependent so many in our population are on governmental power. Hmm. This could get downright mean and complicated. Think I'll just try to stay low and hope no one notices that roll of Mounties!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:17
James (RJ@Your latest is chock full of) ID#252150: - CDF
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:15
TPher (Gold Mining Outlook URL) ID#372235: - Steve Kaplan's Gold Mining Outlook has a new URL. It is http://www.investor1.com/writers/kaplan/index.asp
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:14
Rack (Rush Limbach today ) ID#411163: - Rush today said he didn't believe Y2K was anything to worry about.
He then took a call from a stockbroker that agreed with him. Funny thing about the stockbroker was that a lot of his clients were very worried about Y2K and he said many planned to sell out before the year 2000. I'll follow the clients advice here. Teh odds are 2 against many.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:14
Dave (@sharfin) ID#261155: - can you slip me the url to Desee?please
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:12
Dave (@ I can't get back to see where we ) ID#261155: - left off but I think it was a bout china walls and the ABA.....hee hee
anyway I ain't going to try to catch up on what was said before this segment because I CAN'T!!!!!! ^s^
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:06
sharefin (What's a $100 million?) ID#284255: - http://webserv.vnunet.com/www_user/plsql/pkg_vnu_news.right_frame?p_story=60866
More to this than meets the eye.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:05
Dave (@WELL I AM BACK....) ID#261155: - again...but I don' think I wil say much just lurk, cause every time I try to reload, I loose the damn kitco url....shezzzzzzzz
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:04
mozel (a.j.) ID#153102: - Probably most of the people on this list insufficiently appreciate what you have done for freedom and at what price, but I think I do.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:00
Rack (Farmland costs in the midwest) ID#411163: - I do not know price per acre but in the upper midwest the farmers are going broke in droves!!!! I have talked to two farmers that tried to cash rent their land this year and got no takers. You can't produce a living on it. Even good land!! One local dealer of farm chemicals told me yesterday that they are sweating getting paid for the goods. Things are very bad.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 02:00
mozel (@Gianni @George @aj) ID#153102: - Gianni Thanks. Those are still good addresses, I think.
George Hook up with the guy at this page http://www.alaska.net/~winter/
He is a genius with cojones and 4000 law books. Alaska is a mess. Three Constitutions. It has taken Ralph years just to find a court of record.
Get the Botty course.
Study the Behold materials.
In these ordnance aggravations you are in the area of administrative law.
Agency rules of due process, not judicial rule of law. Procedure is most of it. The first thing to realize is you don't have a freeman's title to your land. Government is more and more operating on the presumption that all land is public. I know you like that handout you get every year, but probably the price of it is any standing to say no to anything government there requires of you. Welcome to the land of no free lunch from government.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:57
RJ (..... The Worth of Gold .....) ID#411259: -
Regarding 30K gold
Or any other arbitrarily high POG, which reflects a weakness of currency rather than inherent strength of gold. Many platitudes are tossed about regarding gold’s ability to be a store of value, but these conveniently avoid comparing dollars for gold in some bygone era with dollars gold may buy in these, our more heady days, after decades of inflation has brought gold to all time record low. I submit ( and have in the past ) that gold does not store value, unless the definition of store includes erosion within, or perhaps value has a short half life I am yet unaware of. I’ve offered the numbers here B4 and will not focus on the irrefutable numerical proof of God’s mathematics in a universe that, as far as we can observe, obeys these immutable laws - without fail.
Rather, I will take a more common sense approach and invite criticism. I will use arbitrary numbers that may be substituted with other arbitrary numbers, so the quantities matter not a wit. What does matter is the value we will inherit gold with throughout what many see as the inevitable fall of the US dollar, the US economy, the world economy, baseball, and apple pie. Some here seem to revel in glee when contemplating a mighty fall of the sky high Dow and yearn with a righteous ache for the day the bubble economy goes, POP! and we are all splattered with the remnants of the world we knew, but is no more; it has now moved on.
These same have expressed some thinkings that perhaps they would be getting rich, while all about are loosing theirs, not realizing that all will fall as one when indeedy the fall comes, yes? They imagine that their gold will reign supreme, and the new Lords shall be only those with a golden luster in their eye. To some extent this is true and would come to pass, but not to the degree that many seem to imagine.
Let’s take the arbitrary POG of 10K per ounce, Okey Dokey? ‘Tis but a third of the vaunted 30K figure that has been tossed about these archives, but I like the whole base 10 thingie and would be an exclusive user of the metric system if only our government would relent and give up these wretched inches, pounds, feet, and miles.
Anyway, 10K buys a lot of stuff these days. Lets pick a well fed, perhaps even rotund, family that eats everything they see. Let’s say that this cots this rolly polly collection of mouths about…. Oh.. say…… approximately……. $833.33 in food bills per month. $200 per week, no starvation here, rightly? OK, so their yearly food bill would be 10K. That is to keep a steady stream of food into all those perpetually vacuuming orifices. Or perhaps gasoline rises to $10 per gallon, or maybe cigarettes are $10 per pack, 10K would buy a thousand of either one of those, indeedy?
Then there is a knock on the door, the Rolly family holds their collected breath ( sucked in through their noses, for their mouths are full ) and wonder who it is. Why, it is a hungry goldbug looking a bit waifish, with an Oliver Twist aura about him/her. This goldbug is standing on the stoop with a single, one ounce gold coin. The door is answered. It is Roland Rolly himself, 440 pounds of American Consumer and he is pissed that his dinner has been disturbed. He asks a barely intelligible, whayoowon? through bits of tamale and green peas and raspberry sorbet.
Does the goldbug offer his gold for a year’s worth of the Rolly family’s food?
How about a thousand gallons of gas for the generator? Or a thousand packs of smokes?
How loudly will Mr. Rolly laugh?
Does the goldbug then pull a gun and demand food ( gas, cigs ) ?
Does Mr. Rolly point out his two pudgy sons manning the 50 cals from behind armor plates on the roof? Does the goldbug then apologize for the gun and explain that all he/she has this gold, but nary a tamale or a pea. wydingasayso?, exclaims Mr. Rolly, My guess is that coin might be worth 'bout a weeks worth of food, take it or leave it.
Does the goldbug take it?
Am I full of it?
These are honest questions.
PS
Gold will certainly buy pretty much what is has in the past and therefore carries pretty much the same value. If the argument were put to me, Looky here, Arj, if things go all to hell, I want my golden and silvered coinage, your cursed dollars be damned!, you will find zero argument with me about this. If you were to say, This Why Too Kay thingie, has me worried all to hell, I don’t think planes will take off, I think the entire economy could be dealt a serious, maybe even fatal blow. I want to keep what I got. The only way I know to do that, is gold., you will be preaching to the choir. If you say, gold will make me rich, I will snort and chortle, and ask when this has been so? Divorce gold from any currency. Look instead at what it buys or can be exchanged for. When has gold proven itself mightier than the world market says is so? Where, in a world of strife, is gold worth more than what the world market says is so? Please no stories of the 49ers paying $5 for cakes of soap, that was gouging a stupidly new rich a century and a half ago, and not dissimilar to charging $20 per gallon of water in a hurricane zone nowadays. These profiteering slugs will get theirs in another life and are not our concern here. Likewise also even definitely indeedy so much so no comparisons of 1700’s economies a la’ Puetz, nor even 1929, for these are dead eras with scant similarities with the instant global economy of today.
I am asking these questions to invite criticism, and truly hope some example could be made where gold would attain otherwise lofty value heights.
If so then
Righty O
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:53
Auric (Those Wacky Monks!) ID#240288: -
Seems there's this monk in Cambodia who got
expelled from his temple for karoake singing. Someone even got stabbed with nail clippers along the way. http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/081298/world28_15819.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:52
Earl () ID#227238: - Dave: You and Mozel do a fine job of helping to clear some of the legal mist that obscures the field of battle. Please continue.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:52
skinny (Gianni Dioro) ID#28994: - I found the book, it is called The Making Of A Jew...By Edgar M. Bronfman.
This is the book that tells of the world Jewish Restitution Organization. and the restitution programs.
IBSN 0-399-14220-7
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:49
HighRise (Russia) ID#401460: -
Is this currrent?
Russia
Moscow Times
^MTMS
11:36AM
228.89
HighRise
-64.14
-21.89%
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:48
Earl () ID#227238: - Auric: Unfortunately I am posting these thoughts without a great deal of reflection but I do believe it would be grave mistake to underestimate the fundamental venality that festers in the liberal soul. Especially as regards the lives and fortunes of any who would dain to reject the blandishments of the Great Father that resides in the DC tepee. For the liberal brethren are his handmaidens and entirely dependent on him for support. What would become of them should that support fail in their hour of greatest need?
I would submit that it's a liberal categorical imperative that all presently harnessed to the federal cart, remain so pressed to further service. Without exception.
We have ample evidence of the negation of rule of law. The RICO statutes, rulings against ( and seizure of ) private property without due process ( whatever that means ) and control of private property through the environmental laws are but the beginning of a long list. These things remain the bread and butter of those who woefully find themselves priviledged without merit and absolutely lacking in any regard for the personal rights and property of others.
By their hand, with the experience of decades past, they are accustomed to control the lives of others, all the while using the system to maintain their own, intact. They will not willfully give it up. I can think of no finer example than the comments issuing from our house Democratic Socialist. As a lawyer and governmental insider, he will continue to keep his as others are deprived, by law, of theirs. All in the interest of a mystical, ill defined, egalitarian principle. .... If the term principle can ever be applied to such a dreadful business.
Earlier, AJ commented on the percentages of people willing to stand for their rights in any confrontation. He optimistically projected 5%. In fact the number will likely be fewer. He went on to say that the majority would agitate and aid in the round up all who would seek to escape harness. ....... Unfortunately, AJ understands his fellow man. All too well.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:47
George__A (a.j.) ID#433172: - Nothing is simple...there is enough ethnic and racial hostility, and enough extremists in every camp to take it all apart without help from anybody.
It's not going to be easy to keep together, so much childish macho swagger and exagerated self-importance. A legacy of plenty.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:38
George__A (Strat) ID#433172: - Thanks..I've got the book on order.
Anyone know what farmland is going for in the midwest? Not the best, medium to poor.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:28
ERLE (duh) ID#190411: - Well, at least you can get there from my last.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:26
ERLE (Gianni Dioro,) ID#190411: - Thanks to you.
Crystal Ball, try this sorry
http://www.investor1.com/gmo
G'night Sorry---------------------
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:25
ERLE (Gianni Dioro,) ID#190411: - Thanks to you.
Crystal Ball, try this sorry
http://www.investor.com/gmo
G'night
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:24
ERLE (Gianni Dioro,) ID#190411: - Thanks to you.
Crystal Ball,
Http://www.investor.com/gmo
G'night
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:19
Dave (@all right......... were was I before ) ID#261155: - I got knocked off the damn web!!! back from an hour of kickin asse and takin names...... whew.....surrounded and outnumbered by commie cybers...
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:19
Gianni Dioro__A (@mozel et al, links) ID#384350: - Hi Mozel, good to see you back. Here are 2 URL's that you posted several months back.
http://announce.com/~behold/
http://www.obnet.com/users/rdjbotty/
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:13
a.j. (DAVE------- If you would like to learn a lot more about the way our laws were and how they became ) ID#257136: - what they now are, do a search on CHAOSTAN and follow it to Richard Maybury's web page.
He has written a lot on the subject.
I eliminated his url from my bookmarks by accident, so can't give the exact url.
It is easy to find using the Chaostan approach.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:12
Auric (Not Rooting For a Collapse) ID#240288: -
I believe we will have one in the next 17 months. It doesn't matter one iota if we wish it or not. One of the side effects will be a blood fury on the part of the American people, looking for a target. I think the would be Fed goon squads will have bigger things to worry about than taking our Gold. Like hiring attorneys to keep them out of prison. And taking extraordinary security precautions. I am guessing that their capabilities to act on any large scale in such circumstances, are vastly overrated.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:12
EJ (kuston ) ID#45173: - We are in an early stage of a deflationary cycle. The change is slow if you're watching day to day, although it feels more rapid thatn I expected. Look how long it took the US stock market to react to the implosion of Asian markets for US goods in Q4 1997. It will be a full year before you really feel deflation. The machine has a lot of inertia in the inflationary direction. The machine will have just as much inertia in the reverse direction. The period of time it needs to stop and reverse depends on the rate at which the equity markets implode.
Most documentaries of The Great Depression give you the sense that there was a crash on Monday and soup lines on Tuesday. Not so. A machine that's been getting faster and more powerful for 60 years doesn't stop on a dime. It will take months or even years to stop it, and many years to stop the counter clockwise motion and get it moving clockwise again.
-EJ
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:11
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299: - A number of hours away begins another wakeful day. Goodnight all...
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:10
Crystal Ball (Gold Mining Outlook) ID#340392: - anybody have a new URL? getting 404 message at old site
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:10
ERLE (mozel) ID#190411: - I am not at all put off by Christian.
You sir, should never be apologetic if you are one.
I will apologise about the off topic nature of my reply.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:06
Envy (Final Thoughts) ID#219363: - It's past mid-night here on the east coast of America. It's the 12th day of August in the year of our Lord nineteen hundred and ninety eight. After today is gone, it'll be gone forever, one less day for each of us to do those things that we have always wanted to do, another day that slips away into the ether of history. For all that you are, have been, or ever will be, for all that is holy, in Christ's name - make it count. Today, make one of your wishes come true. Teach a child something. Make a woman laugh. Give a dollar to someone who needs it. Make this one day perfect. Pretend it's your last day, and just this once find contentment without searching. This is the most special day, the only day, because it's the 12th day of August in the year of our Lord nineteen hundred and ninety eight, and once it's gone, it's gone.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:02
cherokee (@....scotsdale.....hot.as.hale...........) ID#288229: -
the times are-a-changin........yar by gar..
having not had the time to peruse the halls of kitco...i can well imagine
the fires that are blazing here....and where better to be...than at the
smoke-shack in the ssmfatimmb...
my new e-mail address is cherokeeeee@msn.com
where is the phone....i need to make a call....
what can we expect from the hottest summer ever? who said that?
the coldest winter ever recorded....
the wannabees have waited and planned their jihad against the west
and their taskmasters in judea for aeons.....the time is well nigh upon
us....the rivers of life have over-run their banks, and the flood is one
of dissolution......the dissolution of life, and the determination of the many,
by the few.
CHOP-ASAKI to all......a broadhead betwixt the medulla for the rest.
cherokee.!: ) ...in.arizona...and.bolbwaisp....yar.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 01:01
ERLE (mozel) ID#190411: - I tried Dogpile search engine, but got way to many replies on my request. Do you have an address for Behold?
I am somewhat surprised that there is so little comment about POG, or much of anything said about the near term effect of the Yen.
I still am utterly unconvinced that the coupling of POG with the yen has any basis other than a self fulfilling prophesy. Who conceived this relationship? Where did this first appear? Why is the last remaining asset bundled with a sick fiat currency? The Japanese prefer platinum as ornament, they are not a large consumer of gold.
I asked at the time of their CB support of the yen, Why don't they sell US paper for gold? They could have had tons for the squandered assets.
It doesn't add up.
Buy when cheap.
Or, there is no real money anymore. -Maybe that's it.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:56
kuston (George_A) ID#273227: - Funny, both of your examples have been strongly influenced by technology in the past decade - just like the computer equipment I buy. In my examples, the Vette has also been influenced greatly. And the recomended price and performance reflect it. 40K vettes and 80 cent silver salmon sound great, but they don't exist in my world! More spin doctor work I think.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:53
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299: - a.j. -- It would appear everyone has a very serious decision to make!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:49
a.j. (Rob Noel In your 22:22 you feel there are not enuf troops to do the job of confiscation.) ID#257136: - One part of me wants to believe that's rhe way it will go.
The other part of me remembers that ol b.j. was given authority to hire 100,000 Hong Kong cops by the New Congress.
He has hired none as yet.
Hong Kong is no longer free.
He is in bed w/ the commie leaders.
They have been given a sea port.
Other commies have been given a complete military post.
The Presidio, with the military hospital and everything else.
All on the left coast ( appropos, no? ) for convenience's ,sake.
Ruby Ridge, Waco and the long forgotten incineration of Gordon Kahl here in Arkansas.
These atrocitries, as well as the OKC bombing were deliberately done to test the sheeples' tolerance for ambiguity and governmental cruelty.
The sheeple will accept anything.
They will even volunteer to help rob a hoarder if Martial Law is declared outright.
Never underestimate the cowardice of the New American.
Many of those under 55 years of age have never missed a meal or had to shiver through a night under a shelter half in a freezing rain.
Or undergo any other hardship.
I don't think there are over 5% of our people who wll have the courage to stand against the dipstick and his minions.
The remaining 95% will be shivering in their tracks and wondering what they can do to speed up the process of rounding up the dissenters.
Of course, I would not want to be responsible for restraining the 5% or 13,000,000 who still have cojones.
And GUNS!
Don't forget that the mongol trops who quelled the disturbance in Tianenmen Square are available to ol' b. j. and his masters.
As an addendum, to aid in the thinking through of my scenario, I offer the fact OUR GREEN BERETS will be training the RED BERETS of the RED Chinese army in all of our Special Forces weapons and tactics.
Howsabout that?
Don't it make ya wanna get it on b 4 they can consolidate their plans?
Wait and see and live and learn!
Boy do I hope the above is all a pipe dream!!
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:48
mozel (@ERLE) ID#153102: - Botty's material is great. A tremendous bargain in education. But, it won't help you understand the structure of government today or how they do what they do. For that you need a focus and the material from Behold is invaluable for that.
A lot of people are put off by the word Christian. But, the days of a free ride are about over. Between the Socialist, international martial law Republic and the Christian common law Republic of our forefathers, we must choose.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:46
strat (George_A) ID#93241: - Check out: http://www.nolo.com/item/ryc.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:44
kuston (the net is so slow tonight - ) ID#273227: - EJ - My last post was poor, the point I was trying to make is that anything of quality has gone up a great deal lately. I am sure that the junk of the world has decreased in price and quality probably also. Regarding unemployment - in my universe of friends all the productive people are getting huge raises. The unproductive people are getting laid-off, except for the quota people. They never go away.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:42
George__A (Kuston) ID#433172: - I don't dispute your contention that inflation is the trend, I've found the same thing here in Alaska. On the other hand the fish sold up here are going for $.15/lb for troll caught pinks, $.80/ lb for silver salmon. Wheat is the same price it was 40 years ago, and maybe corn. Thats a lot less than the $.42/lb for silvers in 1961 and a lot less for grain if you correct for the dollar differential.
So whats going on?....Service has become overpriced? llike the DOW? Fact is we are worse off now than ...
Mozel- I'm always getting in trouble with laws. The local boys are trotting out one ordinance afeter the other. Is there a good reference book for representing yourself in court? It's a little girls game but I have little choice.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:31
EJ (kuston ) ID#45173: - The impact is not immediate. First you must have higher unemployment as a secondary effect of price pressures on profits. But first you see a peak in inflation, as sellers expect decreased sales in the future and attempt to sqeeze the most money out of the tail end of the inflationary system. Check back with me in a year on those golf ball prices.
-EJ
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:30
mozel (@ERLE) ID#153102: - The only way to win, generally, nowadays is to stay out of their courts and understanding the concepts of venue and jurisdiction and some procedure well enough to have a fighting chance to do that is the first area of knowledge to master. I recommend the people at Behold for that.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:22
kuston (EJ- don't believe those press clippings) ID#273227: -
Deflation - HA HA!!! Prices falling? WHERE? My local McDonalds just
raised the price of my value meal 10%! I stopped into the Chevy garage last week to look for a new vette ( end of the year deal? ) . Edmunds says the dealer's cost is 34-36K. I found a 1 year old car for 48K. The salesslime laughed when I mention under 40. Silver coins, I read a claim 60 cents over spot - I called yesterday and found out the real price was 1.10 over spot. My rent is up 6% since November. Strata golf balls - the Indian reservation is selling 3-ball sleeves for $9.99+2% tax. Best deal in town, and golf is a pretty big business here in Phoenix! My GB Packer tickets have went up each of last 3 years, the plane ticket to see opening game was $350+. First time I've ever paid over $300. The only thing I buy that is cheaper today then it was 3 or 6 months ago are green fees on computer parts. 110 degrees does what $110 does in January - weed out the faint of heart. Insurance, wages, shoes, books ( Rainbow Six was $27.95!! ) , gas ( how can crude fall 50%? and I'm still paying 1.20 - 1.30 a gallon? ) . That deflation crap is spin by the spin doctors.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:18
ERLE (mozel) ID#190411: - try this-
http://www.obnet.com/users/rdjbotty/lessons.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:15
ERLE (mozel) ID#190411: - I printed out his materials list, and I found it.
http:///www.obnet.com/users/rdjbotty/lessons.html
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:14
strat (mozel) ID#93241: - You're right...the law in America was once accessible to all. The rise of the ABA was the downfall of the common man's access to law. Check out Nolo Press: http://www.nolo.com/ They publish some interesting material.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:11
blooper (When war is declared) ID#207145: - Big bankers and the devil smile.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:07
mozel (@strat @ERLE) ID#153102: - strat, you really know how to hurt a guy. Actually, at the time of the War of Independence, Americans were generally able to sound like lawyers when the occasion required. ( I don't mind sounding like one of them. ) Law books were the best sellers in the colonies. Real Law Books like Coke and Littleton. There was no Bar Association. The Declaration of Independence and Constitution did not spring forth from among a people ignorant of law. If you want a government under God and under Law, you first must know what it is the government is to be under.
ERLE For self-preservation I believe I would start with the folks at Behold and then buy Botty's course to grow on. I lost my URL list in a data disaster.
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:06
EJ (Shlomo) ID#45173: - In a deflation, there is less money around. Less money is earned by those who work as wages are cut by corporations in an effort to stay profitable enough to survive, and workers gladly accept their lower wages. Many corporations do not survive ( e.g., Japan, Korea, etc. ) so there is high unemployment with fewer people earning an income. If you are unsure whether you will have a job in the future, or whether your wages will decrease, you are motivated to save the income you earn and spend carefully and only on necessities. If your income drops enough and you have enough debt, you default. You don't let go of your savings or take on debt to buy things until you are certain where your money is coming from tomorrow.
-EJ
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:06
A.Goose () ID#20137: - Date: Tue Aug 11 1998 22:46
Earl ( ) ID#227238:
Well Earl, we have seen it happen before, but one of these times it is going to be to low for some folks to pass up. Maybe, when they are looking for places to park money when U.S. bonds and U.S. stocks are dropping.
At some point in time, the U.S. dollar is going to continue its slide and at that time I doubt that U.S. equities and bonds are going to hold up.
But it sure is taking a long long time...
- Date: Wed Aug 12 1998 00:05
gogold (Hey everyone. I'm looking for a CCDN population report.) ID#353204: - Anybody have one? Thanks in advance.
sjulins@hotmail.com
Return to Home Page
