KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 23:59
Rob (6 pac) ID#410114:
Texaco started to sponser the Met in the 1940's after the public found out that Texaco had been selling petro to the Spanish facists during the second world war. the spanish facists puchased more than they needed. Facist Germany was an friend of facist Spain. Texaco could sell gas/gasoil to Spain as the spanish were not directly involved in the war.


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 23:56
Schippi (Fidelity Select Gold Chart) ID#93199:
Copyright © 1998 Schippi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/enens70.htm

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/ces70.htm

FSAGX & FDPMX hold at CRITICAL support level!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 23:56
rhody (@DBog: 5 meter thick dikes won't cut it in the NWT. They must) ID#411331:
Copyright © 1998 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
be mined by expensive shrinkage methods, and at 1 ct per tonne and
$300 per tonne, that is rich, but the tonnage is unknown. As a
general rule, in the NWT, dikes and sills won't do for big money.
That's a classic speculative spike you are looking at there at
Winspear, in a commodity that will tank when the bubble bursts.
I think you are still looking at 5 years until production, and
then a collapsed diamond market may delay that.

Windspear was interesting as a pipe play. The dikes and sills
may have been related to a fracture system surrounding a large
pipe under Snap lake. Such radial/ring fracture systems are
common around diapirs such a kimberlite pipes, and other
volcanic systems. I got out of Windspear when the dikes did
not lead to a pipe. The dikes were unusually rich, so if they
had ever found the causative pipe, it would likely carry similar
grades. But they have not found the pipe!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 23:46
DBog (Beamer) ID#267298:
Thanks for the info

GO GOLD and WINSPEAR


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 23:43
SlingShot (all) ID#105111:
Copyright © 1998 SlingShot/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Those of us in the all-volunteer service ( Army, Navy, whatever ) had this great equalizer in our relationships with others in the service. No matter who was giving you grief, you could remind yourself ( and quite often them ) that they, too, had been stupid enough to enlist. Quite a common denominator, in the final analysis.

We have some of the same camaraderie here. Many of us, having lost faith in the idiots that run our government ( s ) and the fiat money they have foisted upon us, have put faith in gold. If money is corrupt, our thinking went, then gold is pure.

Yet here we are, gold, mining shares and gold fund shares in hand, and gold is just not doing what we expect. And, in spite of the rich vein of corruption Starr has struck in Arkansas and Klinton's downright weird performance as president, most of America still approves of the president. Where did we go wrong?

I was raised to cherish simple ethical principles of integrity, honest work, fairness and freedom. These values no longer seem to interest most of my fellow Americans. When asked to evaluate this very corrupt president, America's answer seems to be I got mine. Don't bother me. Some times I feel very out of touch with most of the people in my own community.

Then I log onto this site and find a bunch of libertarian gold bugs like myself and it just plain cheers me the hell up.

---- Here's to our noble selves! There's damned few of us left. A massive gulp to you all! ----


On a good note: I try to pass on the values I was taught to my kids. It seems to be working. I busted my 15 year old son in his room the other day, reading. He had Shirer's Rise and Fall of the Third Reich on his bed and Durant's Caesar and Christ on the desk ( he likes to mix it up a little ) . All is not lost.



Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 23:41
Jack (A large number of hits to Kitco from small Brazilizn town) ID#252127:

Seems they been reading all of Retired Soldier's posts about Viagra.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980625/brazil_via_1.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 23:35
rhody (@ Gollum: the CBs use the rumor weapon when gold threatens the) ID#411331:
$300 threshold.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 23:28
Beamer (DBog Re: Winspear) ID#26144:
Copyright © 1998 Beamer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
They recently did a bulk sample and came up with over 1 carat per
ton diamonds. The important thing is that they had some BIG diamonds,
not micro ( less than 1 mm ) Among the parcel sent to Belgium for evaluation were a nearly 11 carat, an 8+ carat, some 6 carats,
and others. Apparently the 8 carat was the show-stopper, coming in
at one grade less than the best possible. No one has said whether they
are coloured or not. They have not found the pipe, only a dike, although
some are of the opinion that this may be enough to make the company
very profitable. The grade of the parcel evaluated rated an
evaluation of between $350 and $400 per carat, depending who you read.
Vancouver has been terribly brutal lately, with any upward move cut
off in short order, but this maybe different - 7 million shares today,
a LOT for Vancouver. Just be careful...........

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 23:26
trader (Farfel....Peter Lynch bullish?) ID#374307:
I have never heard Peter Lynch say he was bullish on gold. Do you have a URL for that?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 23:26
Gollum (@rhody ) ID#43349:
It seems, also, that when the shorts are not active they don't keep bugging us with those central bank sales rumors either. I guess there's no point to wasting a good rumor.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 23:19
rhody (@ALL: one year lease rates are unchanged at 2.06% and the forward rate) ID#411331:
Copyright © 1998 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
is also unchanged at 3.75%.
The conditions under which the gold carry trade
operates are unchanged; hence gold is range bound.

As others have suggested here tonight, the shorts
are less active today as they watch a weakening
yen and wait for a currency intervention by
Mr. Rubin.

It is interesting to note what happens to gold
when the gold carry trade moves off for even
brief periods. The POG firms.

If the US$ has indeed topped, then the shorts
will head home for good and the beast will
begin to roar. I will continue to watch the
lease/forward rates and post.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 23:05
goldfevr@pacbell.net (just an intuitive hunch) ID#434108:
lifeless gold, and lifeless mining shares, are about to come to life...bullish life

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 23:04
STUDIO.R (@Cuba Libre por todo el mundo!) ID#288369:
nytol. ( copyright teddO )

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 23:01
arby (@6pak) ID#72316:
Hmmm,, Facism,,, If I were a poor Iraqui or Cuban I wonder what country I might think would fill that bill...

rb

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:59
bright (EJ) ID#262458:
The Hog is in the tunnel ? Is that like the monkey whose tail is caught in the lawn mower, and says It won't be long now.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:58
Gollum (@Starque) ID#43349:
Depends on how many stops are in and on which side. The London market closes at noon in New york and by one oclock the markets begin to thin. Watch especially after noon on Fridays before a big weekend.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:55
arby (Bill 2 j) ID#72316:
Sorry , you have to type in dx8u

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:54
arby (USDX @Bill2j) ID#72316:
Yes there is a US dollar index,,,
USDX,, couldn't find where the actual index is but here is the sep future.

http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?symbols=yhoo


rb

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:52
Gollum (@EJ) ID#43349:
Neither. I just read it. Or used to.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:48
Starque (Regarding pog fast movement ) ID#286353:
I notice that the pog has a tendency to make major price moves around 1:00 eastern time. Im wondering if anyone can tell me what it would take to move the price of gold either up or down 1 doller in less than a minute. How much gold would have to be sold or bought to move the price $1.00. Would it be possible for someone to manipulate the market by buying gold at 292 an ounce. The price goes up $100 so you sell it at 293. Just wondering.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:48
blooper (Cherokee,) ID#207145:
Where are you? I think beans gonna burn in Aug, Sep. They gonna burn slap up. This is good fer gold. It's great for bean options.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:47
Starque (Regarding pog fast movement ) ID#286353:
I notice that the pog has a tendency to make major price moves around 1:00 eastern time. Im wondering if anyone can tell me what it would take to move the price of gold either up or down 1 doller in less than a minute. How much gold would have to be sold or bought to move the price $1.00. Would it be possible for someone to manipulate the market by buying gold at 292 an ounce. The price goes up $100 so you sell it at 293. Just wondering.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:41
blooper (StudioR) ID#207145:
You get to know yourself when things get hard. OK now back to silly.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:38
STUDIO.R (@inspector...........) ID#288369:
Eggsactly! I'll never forget when the concerned wife of a miner logged on to Kitco wanting to learn the future of gold. Her husband's employer had made the decision to shut his mine. Boy howdy, that brought the point home to me.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:38
farfel (EB...you old drunk bastard...) ID#340302:
Happy Birthday.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:32
tolerant1 (EB...NAMASTE') ID#373284:
Hmmmmmmmmm...twenty one SHOTS of RESERVA salute in your HONOR...HAPPY BIRTHDAY!...

Damn the kidneys...full steam ahead...yEEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:30
blooper (StudioR) ID#207145:
Investments can be pretty impersonal. Occasionally one must realize there are people out there trying to make a living. I have also had to work hard on these energy investments, and have lost sleep. May lose more. It will work out well in the end.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:30
TYoung (F*...I would like to say someting good about gold but...) ID#370218:
Gold up then down before July is not correct. The up cometh but the down remains. Gold in the low $280s or upper $270s is the time to jump.

Grains on a down day are good...corn, beans but I like oats and wheat too. Walk in the paw prints of a short person. Change, coming to a town near you, soon.

Gold is the reserve currency of the world...sixty years does not change truth. Yes?

Tom

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:27
6pak (FWIW @ Corporate defence of Hitler and Fascism 1936 ) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Since the begining of time there are not many cases on record in which corportions have willingly acquiesced in transforming profits for themselves into pay raises for their employees.

There are few calamities that cause the corporation deeper anguish than to increase costs by increasing pay.

No policy, if official United States Senate hearings are an accurate gauge, is too degraded, no means too brutal, no frame-up too heartless, to be discarded by monopoly in the drive to prevent or liquidate increased payroll costs.

Corporations as a matter of fact many of them were becoming intrigued with the methods of Hitler and talk of fascist seizures of power, begining on the lunatic fringe of the Christian Front, the German-American Bund, and other organizations, was increasingly being repeated by industrial leaders of substance and prestige. Henry Ford, T. J. Watson, president of International Business Machines, and a host of lesser tycoons accepted decorations from Hitler, who was fast becoming the hero of much of American business.

American business might be forced to turn to some form of disquised Fascistic dictatorship, announced H. W. Prentiss, former president of the National Association of Manufacturers.

Covert talk of a fascist seizure of power was general in many quarters by 1938 when General Butlers' testimony that he had been urged to lead such a fascist coup revealed that it might be more than talk.

The President himself took note of it by declaring that the liberty of a democracy is not safe if the people tolerate the growth of private power to a point where it becomes stronger than their democratic state itself. That, in its essence, is fascism...

The fact that after Hitler there were no trade unions in Germany made a powerful impression on many American industrialists. Payroll costs were not rising there where monopoly controlled a state in which all democratic opposition had been eliminated.

1940--the powerful pro-Hitler America First Committee contained representatives of much of American industry.

From the first corporations made valuable use of the House un-American Activities Committee in its effort to split labor by the charge of red.

Then an underling on the committee, J. Parnell Thomas, later to be imprisoned for payroll padding, told industrialists in a speech that their un-American Committee was serving corporations well by the gathering of a huge blacklist. He said on January 6, 1941:

There is material of vast value to management in the files of the Dies Committee. ( McCarthy ) We have the names of thousands of men whom we have reasons to suspect because of their connections past or present with subversive organizations. THESE FILES ARE AVAILABLE TO YOU.

McCarthy was elected with the aid of American Action, Inc. whose members included Colonel Robert McCormick, owner of the Chicago Tribune, ( defender of rights of the individual ) , and General Robert E. Wood, former chairman of the America First Committee.

Representative Wright Patman, of Texas, described the members of American Action as fascists seeking to preserve property rights and ignoring human rights.

FWIW Labour fights/strikes/demands, is the key to any action in the price of Gold. Organized Labour ( Unions ) is the only force that can expose the corporate agenda. Yes, labour leadership are policemen, to serve and protect WHOM!. Look to the actions of the rank and file citizen/worker/union member.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:27
EJ (@JP, geoffs, Gollum) ID#45173:
JP, gold breaking away? Silver will lead. The hog is in the tunnel, yes?

geoffs, sorry I don't know any more about the Japan bank failure rumors but I expect events may begin to move in fast forward there soon.

Gollum, do you speak Madarin or Cantonese?

-EJ

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:25
STUDIO.R (@Inspector Bloopeau..........) ID#288369:
Thank you for your thought. On the serious side ( rare for me ) , it has been very difficult to keep my wits about me during this last test.
Even though we were raised around boom and bust, good to dust......it's still been very hard to take....yet I know, Patience!

Gulp & puff to ya! Hope the nickname sticks....it makes me smile....I got you pictured as Peter Sellers.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:23
tolerant1 (that my soul...be enough, to live, within a body...Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...truly I ) ID#373284:
would wish, to thrive in the fields, I am the freshly picked cotton which is woven into the blanket that keeps your children warm...

they left the cage door ajar...yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAAAAAAA...loose...

an edge of toe in the dark...I am gone...when they mutter slip in the harbor they all know it ain't wet clay or a boat dock or a Ladies undergarments...

Namaste' to you all.....................


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:22
blooper (Quion 97) ID#207145:
Media favors Justice Dept and Clinton of course.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:22
EJ (Mike Sheller: you asked last night about my new job) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thx for asking. I'm now in charge of OEM/ISV business development for the consumer side of a relatively new software company. They've been around for about five years and public for only one year. Suprisingly, they have a market cap of $2.2B with only a few hundred employees. They have technology which, until very recently, was considered impractical but which within a few years will be ubiquitous. You will hear less from me starting in a few weeks ( not such a bad thing ) . I hope to soon bring new perspective from my travels to my friends here at Kitco.

Looks like the Nikkei tonight is not processing the news of securities firm failures gladly.

-EJ

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:21
DBog (Winspear Resources, A little off topic) ID#267298:
Winspear Resources, a diamond play trading on the Vancouver,
stock market shot up about 50 cents today to I think $ 1.65

Anyone have an opinion concerning Winspear ?

Go Gold


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:17
quion97 (Win 98) ID#230244:
Just installed Win 98, much faster than Win 95.

I had also heard all the negatives about Win 98, what the hell $89.00 how much can one loose. Well I am very happy with results so far. Very fast covered all my usual site visits in 1/2 the time. Connects very quickly. So far so good.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:12
blooper (StudioR, ) ID#207145:
Oil is heading into seasonality with CNBC talking it down big time. I hope for your sake things improve price wise, as I had time to think about how hard things were for you and yours for last nine months or so.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:08
blooper (Mountain Goat,) ID#207145:
Kudos to the sure of foot.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:05
Mountain Goat (@blooper re: polls) ID#349183:
Copyright © 1998 Mountain Goat/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The poll-taker, spoken in the kindest of voices to Joe:
What rating would you give Mr. Klinton with regard to the current prosperity of America and such low unemployment?

Joe Sixpack:
Uhhhh... Well.... I guess it's ok.

Poll-taker to statistician, quietly under breath:
Ok, that's 1, for.

Statistician to poll-taker:
Ok, let's not take any chances and screw up these results. We've got what we came for.

Poll-taker gleefully to Joe:
Thanks ever so much for participating.

Results of poll:
100% of whatever you wanted it to be.

Regards,

MG ( Go Gold! 100%! )


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:04
STUDIO.R (@M. Sheller........re: golden, flame-broiled sirloin stocks...........) ID#288369:
Yep, stick that fork in me, I'm charred on the outside, and bloody on the inside. ohmy! gin or wodka tuni's?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:03
blooper (Long term GOLD is much better to hold) ID#207145:
Than DOW paper. Gold is a value play as is jJapan, Asia, Oil, grains.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 22:03
snowbird (Mike Sheller) ID#220325:
Thanks for the reply, I will research your erudite missive.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:58
blooper (Japan,) ID#207145:
What if tey did come across? Japan might just be feeling the heat. Contrary. Yes. I've made some money being con when 100% is pro.The yen is due to go up. The dollar is due to go down. Long term Japan's sun is rising, while ours must set for awhile. Counter cyclical. Great for gold. Just a matter of time. The yen is destined to go up. When? who knows.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:56
farfel (I would like to say something good about gold today...) ID#340302:
...but I am left hopelessly sputtering, unintelligible to the world at large....

gggggaaaoloolaaaoladaaaiisssguuuotttoottodott

Thanks.

F*

P.S. Duh...is gold dead?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:54
Mike Sheller (snowbird) ID#347447:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I post 'em as I find 'em. Right now I'm sipping a late evening Martini and can't rack my little brain for the nonce. Check The Astrological Investor at Gold ( the one and only financial website ) Eagle now and again for new thoughts from this 'other'. I have a brilliant and, as usual, beautifully written essay on the world's first FIAT K-Wave. Tell the family! It's a great read, if only for its use of the english language. As a technician and price chart freak, HOWEVER, I can tell you that the gold shares ( and, of course, silver ) are oversold and ready to rally. Also, Silver look like it may have just completed a big abc correction off a 5 wave leg up, and if so, is ready to rumble. I would be a buyer of some of these cheap shares we have all been lamenting here of late. Actually, I did buy more last week. SSC looks nice, and I think a recovery pop in ECO could double the stock in any decent PM rally from here. Let's get RRRReady to RRRRRummmbbblllle!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:52
blooper (Downunder,) ID#207145:
If you were asking the polling questions, Clinton's approval rating would be minus 87%.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:50
STUDIO.R (@EBirthdayBoy?) ID#288369:
Oh MY Dear God!!!! Is this your B-Day Huh-a-Huh? Your post was a wee bit cryptic ( as in one-foot-in-the-crypt-ic ) . If this is soooooo...............den, blow and go. your pal, studio.r, wishes you a life without END. ( as in buttsky ) !

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:47
blooper (Before blaming the people,) ID#207145:
I might like to see the polling questions, how they were asked. The MEDIA is so uniformly behind Clinton philosophically that Joe sixpac could be spun. And head faked.Force feeding of the entire public is such a huge positive for liberal democrats. They are the REAL scum.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:46
Mike Sheller (Squirrel) ID#347447:
Sure, what did you THINK the TAX COURT would have to say on the matter?!

This only points up the sorry state of pro-gold forces in the U.S. and their intellectual , philosophical, and legal bankruptcy. And so sad that the one man who would have been a marvelous President of the Gold Standard Party is Alan Greenspan, who has apparently plighted his troth with some other wench. I am getting as disgusted as Tolerant. And almost as intolerant.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:45
snowbird (Mike Sheller) ID#220325:
Do you have dates for forthcoming planetary alignments? How do these dates coincide with auspicious market moments, up, down or not at all. Thanks

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:41
Mike Sheller (EB - Happy Birthday!!!) ID#347447:
So sorry to have missed the boat - Yesss! Happy Birthday to the Sun in Cancer, Moon in Aries EB! Sensitive, bold, pioneering. Willing to go where no man has gone before ( just so long as someone goes with him ) . Congrats on your trading streak to date. & Many more! Until Bryant Park...

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:38
blooper (Downunder,) ID#207145:
When times are good, skitrs are short, values are not valued. Gay 90s, Roaring 20s etc. We need to fear prosperity, as hard times bring out the best in people. People are not themselves when they are spoiled by prosperity. I am not advocating hard times, as we can surely suffer prosperity for a while longer.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:37
Squirrel (Mike Sheller - IRS does not view Eagles as worth only $50) ID#287186:
Champion of tax on Tue May 05 1998 15:35 wrote: Basically, Smith sold timber off his land only in exchange for Eagles which he valued at face of $50. The Tax Court agreed with the IRS that Eagles are property not money and thus must be valued at market

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:35
Bill2j (@All) ID#259400:
Is there such a thing as a dollar index? If there is where can I find it? I would like to start tracking the dollar against a basket of other currencies. Thanks.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:34
kapex (SPEED.....Thankyou for posting that, I had only heard about it's content.) ID#218253:
That in my very very humble opinion, is the the clear sound of a very LOUD bell being rung........................................................................ A contrarian might see this as a bullish sign for gold, but the real message may be about the mutual-fund industry. If gold
funds are closing, merging and can't be marketed in a bear market, what may happen to the fund industry when the stock
market as a whole turns down?
Might see this as a bullish sign, naahhh must be that character flaw I have.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:34
Mountain Goat (@Downunder_A) ID#349183:
Not to worry, mate. It's damned hard to hear anything politicians say these days without cringing. I wonder if there's a one of 'em that isn't in someone's back pocket. And hearing dear ole' BC's voice is enough to make me want to smash the radio at times too.

No harm done, I would guess.

Regards,

MG ( Go Gold! one of these fine days... )

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:33
STUDIO.R (@downunder............) ID#288369:
carry on, brother. I'll buy the beer and gas.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:33
blooper (downunder,) ID#207145:
The people support Clinton, even after all he has done. It is the people who are to blame.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:32
EB (*Mike Sheller*) ID#187109:
you-da-man.......nuff said.
away......to b-day celeb..... ( horns and whistles and baloons and stuff and gulps and puffs too ) ..... ( fine S. Americans no doubt ) ...... ( uh huh ) .... ( 36 ) ( ? ) ..... ( ugh ) .......................ohmy ( ! )


go gold ( ? ) ....no......go Plat ( ? ) .....hmmmmmm
w/w

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:24
downunder__A (tolerantl-bloopa-all) ID#27341:
Copyright © 1998 downunder__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
my friends,yesterday,after i calmed down,i realized my reply in regard to the bc speach i neard on radio sent you in the wrong direction, the words were my take on the CEs words,not his.
i,m a short fuse when it comes to politicians, in this good ol land to, bull bull,wink wink nod nod,sell you down the drain, selfinterest, power, money,seems everything is more important than a person,and honesty.
How a person could stand up and sympathize, virtually justify a government in respect to tibet and T,sq , and thier designs on T, is a sell out.
Leaders today here and there are, crap,lying, cheating, bastards,
i have many faults, and in most respects a lesser person, but i know truth ( honesty )
tolerantl my friend please forgive if i have given you pain.
and all

GM

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:22
STUDIO.R (@T#1..............carly simon.) ID#288369:
We both liked your mirror over-rated chop...a lot! ( gulp & puff ) to YA!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:22
BillinOregon (Retired Soldier) ID#262242:
Thanks for the letter. Tried to respond but my letter was kicked back.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:20
Speed (kapex...mea culpa.. here is the correct one) ID#29048:
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q2/1998_06/980613.093811.speedeeee.htm

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:18
Speed (kapex) ID#29048:
Barron's article on gold posted here Sat Jun 20 1998 11:48

http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q2/1998_06/980620.114827.speedeeee.htm

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:13
Mike Sheller (kapex) ID#347447:
there are indeed trace amounts of gold in Barron's, but recovery values are far from economical at this time.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:13
Speed (Russian Palladium...do they really have 200 tonnes?) ID#29048:
http://www.crbindex.com/story2333.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:10
Mike Sheller (By the Way...) ID#347447:
The same leverage can be utilized with a US SILVER eagle coin which, I just looked and noticed, has a US face value of One Dollar. The coin is taken at a small premium to spot as an inducement - the premium increases the purchaswe power of the buyer, or holder of the coin, but is calculated to still make the forgoing of income reporting more than worth the premium to the seller of the goods for the coin. $5 worth of business is transacted, but only $1 income is reportable as to face value US coin.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:09
kapex (Copied from my post on a Hecla ) ID#218253:
board.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:08
STUDIO.R (@F*................) ID#288369:
These fellows sure like to buy cheap, huh? stingy, tight-ass bankers! Like ol' Bill L. Bledsoe, of the Hunt Bros. fame, once told me....Ronnie, if you buy somethin' cheap enough, well hell, it's half sold, son.

F*.....I bet four Louisiana Highway Patrol couldn't lift M. Camdessus' safety deposit box! Salud! to ya!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:07
kapex (farfel) ID#218253:
Subject: Re: PM stocks are setting us up!
Date: Thu, Jun 25, 1998 20:41 EDT
From: Kapex


At a low this is what you would want to see. If news gets negative for PM stocks down here and the last few throw in the towel, your going to feel like your soooooo wrong about owning these things. From what I understand, some of the PM mutual funds are even getting out of PM companies and buying other things. If were not at the BOTTOM right now then its not very far off. Wasn't there a story about gold in Barrons in the last couple weeks?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:04
TYoung (tolerant1) ID#17796:
Mirrors...reflections of truth and lies...depends on the viewer. Crazy one, truth is your reflection.

and a gulp to you and yours.

Tom

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 21:03
Mike Sheller (CompGeek, All re Barter) ID#347447:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A thought just occurred based on the Maple Leaf/Pizza equation: Suppose a deal is made by a supplier or producer of a good or service to accept a one ounce golden eagle ( the American bullion coin, not the website ) for every spot gold value of goods. So if gold is $300 per oz, and the TV set is selling for $299.95, a U.S. bullion coin will do the sale. Now the coin owner has liquidated his coin but does not have to register same as a sale to a dealer, and the goods producer registers the sale as having taken in $50, or the U.S. face value of the coin. Since the US gold coin is legal tender, it must be legal tender at face. Thus the seller of the goods receiving the coin legally forgoes reporting $250 of the $300 sale, and does not pay tax on it. Holes in this, anyone?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 20:59
farfel (@STUDIO R...interesting story about old Waldo...) ID#340302:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...and I would say that, for myself, a turning point in my decision to make a significant increase in gold purchases occurred when PETER LYNCH, progenitor and chief mastermind of the great mutual fund index cartel, turned ultra-bullish on the metal.

I wonder how many other mutual fund managers ( former or current ) are transforming secretly their cash hoards into metal equivalents?

I know there are a plethora of negatives released into the gold market on almost a daily basis...and yet...?

My favorite brain dead maxim revolves around the notion of dropping gold demand in Asia owing to their rapidly contracting economies...

Yet, nobody ever suggests the possibility that a huge upspike in N. American gold demand could conceivably dwarf any contraction in Asian demand? Of course, such a radically new development is descredited by gold antagonists on the basis that there is no established history of a comparable huge N. American gold demand by the average consumer.

Hey...but we're in a New Paradigm...anything's possible, right?

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 20:57
bmacd (ROR (BMG)) ID#261322:
I think you got a good deal. If I weren't so short of funds, I'ld be stocking up on more BMG, stock or options. It's an amazing company, it will ride out this storm, and it's an unbelievable steal right now. Any idea on why Placer Dome hasn't moved much at all even now that the Venezuelan mess has been cleared in it's favour? I figured it would behave better than this.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 20:48
tolerant1 (yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!) ID#373284:
giving gold to babies...in strollers...casting bubbles about...life is good...dancing and laughing....

America...life on the Island that is Long is magical...infinity is the diving board we seek, each time tiny eye-lids allow us to endlessly find ourselves...we need take only one look in their eyes and each of us will know the mirror is over-rated.......................

Namaste'...................................................

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 20:44
STUDIO.R (@A smart friend...........) ID#288369:
Copyright © 1998 STUDIO.R/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
J. Waldo stopped by my office this morning about 10:00, a pleasant surprise visit. But John did not have his usual Oxxford suit on; rather, he had a ratty ol' T-shirt, jogging shorts and a Discman on. He looked unusually well rested. You see, John is the head and substantial owner of Oppenheim & Co., an old, established investment banking firm here. They have placed paper for almost 100 years, and a damn fine lot of it.

Now it seems that John has sold the firm to a publicly held regional banking concern for a handsome amount of CASH. He wanted to assure me that my accounts with Oppenheim would receive good care in the future.

I also learned that this savvy ol' college mate o' mine is currently of the opinion that these paper products could catch fire. We came to a quick agreement that the well-dressed 21st century man should have at least 15% of his worth in gold ( which I will assist him in acquiring ) ....and should never be seen in glen plaid.

So let the record show that Mr. Waldo is a bright man having an uncanny sense of timing. Also, let it be said that this is the third banker-friend o' mine that has moved a bit o' cash into gold.

Oh, there's one less shack on Wall Street. huh.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 20:29
Squirrel (CompGeek & Grizz - I'll accept Silver at my store) ID#287186:
But only cuz I like Silver. I doubt my vendors would accept it for what I buy wholesale from them - cuz they can't pay THEIR suppliers with it. So the Silver buck stops at my purse - for I can not pass it on. THAT is what defines money - the ability for it to be freely exchangeable and to be used to pay all debts. Grizz is right - Gold and Silver are no longer valuable as MONEY! But if the US or some country minted BILLIONS of GOLD & SILVER COINS then our precious twosome could return to what we talk so much about them being.
Aurator? Will your mug be on your Gold & Silver Coins?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 20:15
BillinOregon (Winds of change) ID#262242:
The Nikkei is down 107 and falling.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 20:12
strat (y2k liability) ID#93232:
It seems state governments are beginning to take action regarding y2k...there is legislation pending in over a dozen states to limit government liability for damages and wrongful actions occuring as a result of incorrect, computer-generated dates. Now, if only Arkansas Willy and the Capitol Hill Clowns would follow suit...

http://www.itaa.org/Y2Klaw.htm


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 20:09
Strad Master (LGB Thanks!) ID#250297:
Thanks for your gold perspective. Why such a wide range in the long term prediction?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:58
JP (EJ--- One additional comment) ID#253153:
We may be seeing gold beginning to rise against all currencies ( including the US dollar ) . This is the end predictable way for all fiat currencies.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:56
Gollum (bank failure?) ID#43349:
Rumors of a bank failure would increase the run on the yen which would heighten anticipation of intervention. The yen bears wouldn' mind such a rumor because then they could test Rubin's resolve without having to stick their own necks out.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/financial/story.html?s=n/ap/980623/financial/stories/japan_bank_rescue_7.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:54
CompGeek (Barter? (USA centric question) but probably valid anywhere) ID#343259:
What is the legality of offering goods for sale for exchange with another commodity? I was intrigued by the Pizza Post earlier, where someone offered a 1 oz Silver Maple Leaf for a 6.95 Pizza. If I owned a Pizza Store could I say Pizza 6.95 or 1 oz fine silver. If legal, and biz owners ( who are interested in PM's ) made such offers, it might raise common awareness as to usefulness of gold/silver. Usually, retail markups are such to bury minor fluctuations in silver/gold, and if POG/POS changed radically, change the silver price. But, is it legal?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:49
Michael (Japan Bank) ID#293379:
Copyright © 1998 Michael/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

World: Asia-Pacific
Close banks, says Japanese politician

A senior Japanese politician Seiroku Kajiyama of the ruling Liberal
Democratssays half the country's banks should be closed, and tens of
billions of dollars in bad debt written off.

His comments came as the Long-Term Credit Bank announced a major
restructuring, and said it was seeking a merger deal to avoid collapse.

The bank -- one of the world's largest -- is also laying off twenty
per-cent of its staff.

The BBC Tokyo Correspondent says the bad loans that banks are carrying
are seen as one of the fundamental obstacles to Japan's economic
recovery.

She says the government has promised to come up with a rescue plan
before next month's elections, but the public reamins sceptical.

From the newsroom of the BBC World Service

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:48
RETIRED SOLDIER (BillinOregon,Isure) ID#347235:
Bill nothing I would like more than to come to NY for the Kitco Bash, unfortunately done have enough leave time from my post retiremnt job to go everywhere I want too. Will save leave and money for next year though just let me know where and when!

isure, sorry I feel uncomfortable with the term COON- and Ass together, both used in other contexts are VERY negative. I know several cajuns though and all of them having been female loved em all!! Let the good times roll for sure good buddy. Shalom to all.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:47
6pak (FWIW @ When choice is gone & workers and small business is destroyed. What then?) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sud Master @ 15:21, Unsold GM cars --GM want this strike? Hmmm..

Yes, my view suggests they want this strike. Yes, Corporate U.S ofA. is on the move, and yes, Labour ( citizen ) must be destroyed, as well the small family business, as was the small family farm. Why should the Corporation be concerned with the local community, and community standards.

Hell they are busy doing business in a world community and require all the depth ( wealth ) that the U.S. of A. citizen can produce. They require high tax rates, Government hand outs & Bail outs. All citizen's ( Canadian & USofA ) must get with the program right?

We all know, as well trained and educated citizen's and good consumer's, what is good for BUSINESS ( corporation's ) is good for the CITIZEN ( consumer ) .

Note:

Canadian auto dealers seek listings

TORONTO, June 25 ( Reuters ) - Canada's retail auto sector was jolted on Thursday by news that a major auto retailer in southern Ontario intends to take its shares public and seek a listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Two Toronto financial services firms are drafting real estate investment trust funds as another way dealers can raise cash.

The shakeup could transform the industry within five years, DesRosiers said.

Two out of three of Canada's 3,400 new car dealerships are family owned with the balance run by corporations.

In five years there could easily be 1,000 fewer retailers and two-thirds of those remaining will likely be company run, he said.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/AUTOS-CANADA.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:43
Gollum (Watch gold and silver tonight) ID#43349:
Tonight you will see the way the precious metals would behave if the damn shorts would keep out of things. No one wants to take too big a short position becasue ol' man Rubin may be out there huntin Yen bears.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:39
Michael (Bloomberg global commodities) ID#293379:
Copyright © 1998 Michael/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

In NEW YORK, gold was little changed as the Japanese yen
weakened for a fourth day against the dollar, making precious
metals more expensive for Japanese buyers.


In late New York trading, the yen fell to 142.13 yen to the
dollar, surpassing 142 yen for the first time since the U.S. and
Japan sold dollars last week to boost the Japanese currency. The
yen has weakened 3.7 percent against the dollar since Friday.


As Japan struggles to fix its sluggish economy, a weak yen
increases the cost of dollar-priced precious for buyers using the
Japanese currency. Japan is the world's seventh-largest gold
consumer and third-biggest silver user.
``The gold and the silver markets are held hostage by the
dollar-yen'' exchange rate, said Leonard Kaplan, chief bullion
dealer at LFG Bullion Services in Chicago.


Gold for August delivery was little changed at $295.10 an
ounce, up 90 cents, on the Comex division of the New York
Mercantile Exchange. July silver rose 7.3 cents, or 1.4 percent,
to $5.335 an ounce on the Comex.


Gold surged as high as $296.70 in New York as the yen
strengthened briefly on unsubstantiated speculation that central
banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, were checking exchange
rates -- a precursor to intervention.




In LONDON, gold for immediate delivery also was little
changed at $293.90 an ounce, up $1.05. In London, spot silver
rose 10.5 cents, or 2.0 percent, to $5.38 an ounce.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:39
kiwi (hmmmm.....here's a vision...) ID#194311:
should please the 1 who is tolerant on the island that is long.

Bill Clinton is not coming back from China....at least not alive.
He has passed his use by date and will expire as his master,s wish.
Too much to tell, too little time, highway to hell.


gotta get off that mescal....i think i saw the worm turn.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:37
geoffs (CALLING EJ EJ EJ -More Info On Jap Bank Failure---PLEASE) ID#432157:


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:35
BillinOregon (Retired Soldier) ID#262242:
Copyright © 1998 BillinOregon/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Glad to hear you are going to Israel next year, you will love it. I went last year. Our tour guide was Ronnie a Major in the Israely army. He took us to many places and showed us sights that most tourists don't see. We got to meet Reify and his lovely wife in Tiberias and had a delightful dinner. We are getting together in New York the 15th of August, be nice if you could make it. Tolerant1 and others from the Kitco group will be there. All are invited.

Aurator,,I would like to talk with you, I am thinking of coming to New Zealand. Bjack@cdsnet.net

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:34
Gollum (@JP) ID#43349:
If you already have Explorer 4.x on your Windows 95 machine you won't see much difference going to W98. Just a few more bells and whistles.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:31
Gollum (@EJ) ID#43349:
Oh, by the way, if the buttons and levers are all marked with kanjii, I think I wouldn't have too awfully much trouble unless they are some really obscure characters.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:31
kiwi (Yen drifting out to sea ..142.3) ID#194311:
change's in the wind, sails luffing........gold's acting wierd.

Heave to, hoist the kite.....get on the gold calls

catch the first puff, the strongest.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:30
kitkat (@ strat) ID#208393:
Could one of the key days be April 1'st?

( Sorry, couldn't resist it. )

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:29
geoffs (Did everybody MISS IT --Jap --Bank failure__Rumor More Info Please) ID#432157:


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:28
strat (Y2K in Shawnee country) ID#93232:
My neighbor is an engineer at GE jet engines and told me of a recent conversation with some other engineers. Apparently, they were discussing embedded processors in jet engines and their lack of y2k compliance possibly causing a failure on any one of four key days in April '99. None of them apparently is quite sure what will happen if this failure occurs, but the upshot of all this is that they were warning each other not to fly in April. I think I'll stay home next year...

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:26
Isure (@ Studio R) ID#368244:

I be fine, drink a little wine, and I'll be ready to powder this gators behind.

Glad to hear daughter #2 is coming to LSU , GEAUX TIGERS.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:26
Gollum (@J) ID#43349:
By 2001 we may be well into a run from the dollar into the Euro which will dramatically increase the dollar price of gold. Of course you aren't neccesarily gaining any buying power since the price of everything else in dollars will be going up too, but you won't be losing any like you would if you had it all in cash.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:25
OLD GOLD () ID#242325:
JP: If you are not Puetz, then you are his ideological twin. But cheer up. The crash forecast may finally come true this fall.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:24
ROR (BMG) ID#412286:
I have purchased 70 BMG Oct 7.5 calls for an average price of 3/16 over the last couple of weeks. The options seemed cheap given the time and the fact that BMG reached 7.5 when gold hit 315. Comments. Another tax loss or a trip to Veradero Beach in Cuba?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:22
Michael (silver COMEX inventory) ID#293379:


TOTAL STOCKS CHANGE
GOLD 1010619 ounces dn 511
SILVER 86777885 ounces dn 798294
HG COPPER 65331 tons dn 514
--------

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:21
Gollum (@EJ ) ID#43349:
Well, yes, the kanji are from the chinese but the katakana and hiragana are Japanese and that is one of the reasons they beat the Chinese in the world war.

In English the world's fastest typists type around 215 words per minute with very few errors ( you lose points for errors ) . In the Chinese the worl'd fastest typists type around 11 words per minute. In English or phonetic Japanese telegraphy via morse code is fairly easy. In Chinese it is a nightmare. By the time you get through deciphering the message that the Japanese are coming they are already there.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:17
STUDIO.R (@Isure.......we be sure of what?) ID#288369:
Let it be known that the Kitco Coon Ass and the Kitco Okie ain't gonna' buy no mo' gold stocks...thank you very much. how you do?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:16
Avalon (Haggis, re MIM, thanks for your comments; Management can be changed quicker) ID#254269:
than changing the assetts. Stock is selling for half of where it was a
year ago.Thanks.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 19:08
Isure (@ Retired Soldier) ID#368244:
Us Louisiana Red Necks Say, Laisser La Bon Temp Rouler , but call us COON ASSES, we come from a long line of ASSES.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:57
JP (EJ--I'm clueless as to what the Nikkei will do tonight but I got a feeling that ) ID#253153:
the US dollar may in the process of topping out. The number of people
in the US and Canada losing their jobs is rising. The GM strike is not helping and manufacturing can't compete with the inflow of cheap imports. I think the big companies are beginning to exert pressure on the administration and congress demanding lower US dollar.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:57
J (LGB: POG predictions) ID#174239:
Copyright © 1998 J/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I'm very curious why you predict such gold price increases ( or US$ decreases ) after Y2K.

I can see a Y2K inspired intirest in Gold around 2000. But, once everyone realizes that it is 2001 and the world is still chugging along about the same, won't the price drop? I see three longer term ( decades ) trends against gold.

1. Central Banks seem to want to minimize thier holdings. The world seem to need less gold to act as money.

2. Technological improvements make gold production cheaper. Mines should be able to proiduce more gold at a lower price, but still make profits by reducing thier operating costs.

3. Increasingly, technology also helps manufacturers cut costs by finding ways to make things using less gold, waste less gold, and to use cheaper materials to do the same job as gold .

More supply + Lower demand = lower price.

Perhaps my assumptions are wrong or there are more positive trends that I havn't considered.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:56
Prometheus (@JP) ID#210235:
Copyright © 1998 Prometheus/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Hi. There was an important event yesterday, when Sanyo Securities announced it's shutting down after unsuccessfully contacting over 40 possible suitors, in an attempt at reorganization. This bodes badly for Japan's large and critically important bank, which will apparently try the same tactic to prevent total collapse. I'd guess folks are getting kind of nervous. When the yen falls below 140, I've heard, this bank has insufficient capitalization for BIS rules, although the Japanese government has shown willingness to bend its own rules to keep the show on the road.

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980624/japan_sany_1.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_company_file/newsid_119000/119717.stm

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:52
Miro (@Delphi) ID#347457:
Agreed

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:50
Miro (JP, you are kidding, right?! ;-)) ID#347457:
Windows 98 faster? Hmm, le'me see .. cleaning up a few bugs and integrating MS explorer into Windows functionality .. looks to me like the performance would be the same ( at best ) , more likely worse due to additional software layers incorporated into basic functions. You want better performance? Look for a bigger and faster machine, not for the new release of operating system.


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:49
CPO@AU (Charles Keeling @LGB Roll Back the calender) ID#329186:
Euro plan Fails to make 1999 due to Y2K conflict ~ I love it, seems one of the better things to think about.........lets hope it derails the euro gravy train and occupants

buy Physical gold and hang on

cpo

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:48
RETIRED SOLDIER (LGB) ID#347235:
Any Windows 95 bought in 1996 or later will be Y2K compliant, at least on all systems in the Army that is. Our contracting offices have insisted on it for the last three years.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:47
Argent (George__A) ID#255217:
Didn't know that; but it fits right in, doesn't it? Thanks.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:46
JP (Steve in TO_A---Thanks) ID#253153:


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:45
JP (Steve in TO) ID#253153:


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:45
RETIRED SOLDIER (Argent) ID#347235:
He is a redneck living in Louisiana. Since he lives there thats what I call him, understand the Cajuns do too.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:43
Delphi (Miro, 18:11 - sliding window) ID#258142:
Copyright © 1998 Delphi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Miro, nothing is new under the moon. Sliding window included. Of course, it is not a silver bullet. The reason why I have posted this message about sliding window approach to Y2K problem is very simple: for a long time ( maybe except today ) I saw only negative info about Y2K on this site. This is just an example of positive activity around this problem ( I think it is positive, because at least it gives some approach to deal with old data, like spreadsheets without hiring professionals ) . In practice governments, companies, all kind of institutions are working on it. It is a serious problem, very costly But I doubt that it will cause global disaster.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:43
Haggis__A (Life on the Other Side.............) ID#39862:

Obtaining a different perspective is, I believe,important ....... therefore, how many of our North American cousins have read:

hidden Agendas, by John Pilger. Published by Vintage 1998.
ISBN 0099741512

Interesting read................

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:42
EJ (JP: It was an interesting day at the DOW, with Gollum's tinkering) ID#45173:
But he can't get over to Japan to do anything there. Even if he could, the levers and buttons are marked with Chinese characters ( the Japanese borrowed the Chinese written language, in case you didn't know ) .

Any bets how the Nikkei may react to bank failure rumors?

-EJ

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:38
Steve in TO__A (JP - I'm not going to install . . . ) ID#209265:
Copyright © 1998 Steve in TO__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Windows98. I've been reading the reviews, and they all say that it doesn't provide much new functionality, except for the WWW browser being available from anywhere in the operating system, including applications. It fixes a few bugs, and runs more reliably, but won't give you any more speed, according to them. They were all fairly ho-hum about it.

We're moving away from Windows95/98 anyway to Windows NT- now there's an operating system that actually does speed up you computer, as well as crashing less often, etc.. We've had so much grief from Windows95 that we just don't want to have to deal with it or its successor any more. It crashes too often.

- Steve

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:37
Argent (RETIRED SOLDIER) ID#255217:
Do you REALLY have a cousin named Le Neck Rouge? What a GREAT name! Is he from Louisiana?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:37
LGB (@ JP...Windows 98) ID#269409:
The experts tell me that Win98 is Y2K compliant, where Win95 is not.... sounds like advertising hype to me...buy Microsoft stock!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:27
Haggis__A (Avalon.........) ID#39862:

MIM

Great assets, shocking management.

They are about to open a new base metal mine in Queensland, also Earnest Henry Cu-Au and Ravenswood Au going well.

Might be worth a punt......but he management ?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:25
Haggis__A (JP...........) ID#39862:

Not only that..........

A Banker is defined as, one who goes through life as a Wanker, one who cannot admit anything to anyone.....

Imagine......

A Banker arrives home at night....Hello Dear, I was thinking about you today.......

STRUTH.................

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:22
Avalon (Haggis , Och aye my man; Good morning Dear Sir, I thought you were lost ) ID#254269:
in the wilds of W.A. Have a question for you. What do you think of
MIM at present. Stock is real cheap at present. Thanks for any comments.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:22
LGB (Strad, Keeling, Allen, all....... Y2K and POG) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Regardless of how severe or mild the effects of Y2K bug work out in reality, I DO believe that the public perception of the problem will be enough to cause some bullish movement in POG prior to the event.

AS I posted Tuesday, we had a rather large, color illustrated, faeture article in the San Jose Mercury News re Y2K and it's effects on Gold coin purchases & other preperations locally here. You'd have really thought this article was written by a Kitcoite! Among other things, they showed a hguge photo of Gold & Silver coins, and another photo of a local coin dealer selling coins, with an accompanying interview in which he stated he has several Y2K related coin buyers a day now, as opposed to none a few weeks ago.

Strad, Short, medium, and long term?

Short term.......Flat, ( 1998 little movement above $320 )
Medium term.......Higher ( 1999-2000..... $340-$420 range )
Long Term........Highest ( 2001-2007..... $420-1200 range )

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:17
JP (Has anyone installed Windows 98 on your PC ? Is it much faster than Win 95 ?) ID#253153:


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:12
RETIRED SOLDIER (HAGGIS) ID#347235:
Glad to see you back it was dull without you.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:11
Miro (@Delphi on IBM and sliding window?) ID#347457:
Delphi,
nothing new and positive about the sliding window. Sliding window was NOT invented by IBM, it is used as one of the technical approaches from the beginning of this Y2K thing ( was used even before the Y2K thing ) . It cuts down the effort comparing to full expansion of the dates, however, it's no silver bullet - requires a lot of changes, you need to clean up the data ( so that algorithm does not give up on you ) and the testing is no fun.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:11
RETIRED SOLDIER (JP) ID#347235:
I DO plan to be in Isreal next year Jerusalem is definately on the list! Then hope to see Reify in Haifa. Shalom. Glad you and MM have a sense of humor.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 18:10
Haggis__A () ID#39862:
Copyright © 1998 Haggis__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

WHAT IS THE LIKELY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN INDONESIAN DERIVATIVE AND ANY OTHER DERIVATIVE ?...........NONE

Is it ( the deficit ) US$20 billion, or US$30 billion, or US$50 billion,
or US$70 billion? he wonders. I don't know of anyone in the government, or the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund or the private sector who has a real good handle on how far, how deep it goes, and what the final number will be.What's more, the examiners say that the potential bank rescues could pose a dilemma for IBRA, which was created at the behest of the IMF to resuscitate Indonesia's financial system. That's because the government agency is likely to be torn between trying to protect the integrity of the banking system, and footing the bill for what may prove to be bogus transactions.
....................

Not to worry, John Wayne and the IMF to the rescue.........

Och aye the nooooooooooooooooooooo..............

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:59
JP (Donald-- I just received a telephone call from Tokyo regarding a rumor) ID#253153:
about a possible major bank failure . Would you please be on a look out
for any info. Thanks,

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:51
Avalon (Susan McDougall freed. ) ID#254269:

http://www.abcnews.com/sections/us/DailyNews/mcdougal980625.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:50
JP (Retired Soldier-- Shalom to you too-- Next year in Jerusalem , Yes ?) ID#253153:


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:48
MM (RETIRED SOLDIER) ID#350179:
*THAT* left me tongue tied... ROTF ( she smiles in thanks, though )

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:45
RETIRED SOLDIER (JP) ID#347235:
Maybe Old Gold misspelled PUTZ?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:45
George__A (Huh?) ID#433172:
5 out 15 stocks ( jrs ) I own have a lower last price than the bid price?

Very small volume.

Argent-- Japanese PARTS are way overpriced, crazy.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:43
CoolJing (avalon) ID#343171:
Susan McDougall was sent home for 90 days detention for medical reasons, a spinal condition was mentioned.
At least she has a spine, unlike her pal the linguini spined Klinton.

The sh*t/fan interface approachs towards Klinton, with direct positive implications for gold.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:43
RETIRED SOLDIER (MM) ID#347235:
Blackadder, quite like Ian Flemings James Bond a cunning linguist yes?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:40
Miro (@ Rolling back calendar ) ID#347457:
Copyright © 1998 Miro/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Folks, rolling back calendar is one of the accepted Y2K solution techniques. In Y2K technical circles it's known under the name of encapsulation and time shifting You move all dates in program input routines ( from input screens, files, date routines, etc ) back in time. You don't need to change any algorithm ( with small exception for some hard coded date literals ) , and you move all dates forward on output routines by the same date offset. Multiple of 28 years is used for offsetting dates as calendar, leap years, and day alignment repeats every 28 years ( with exception to some rules for leap years, however these usually don't come into play )
This minimizes a number of required program modifications. Techniques is used mostly in cases when the system will be replaced in a few years, and you want to minimize the effort - do just what you need to get you through the next few years. No applicable for each system but it works and it's successfully used out in the field. You will see much more of these techniques as we are running out of time.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:40
MM (Vote!) ID#350179:
http:///chartsurvey.htm

And a prediction ( with the help of chicken entrails... )
POG to $425/oz tomorrow ( in Canada... )

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:38
JP (Old Gold--- I resent your statement suggesting I'm Steve Puchz , I'm NOT.) ID#253153:


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:34
Donald (The numbers below are all 50 day moving averages) ID#26793:
Spot gold $298.78; spot silver $5.60; XAU 79.13

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:33
CoolJing (CompGeek, all) ID#343171:
Copyright © 1998 CoolJing/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Most of Asia is past the event horizon as far as regaining control of the currecy markets, banks, equities. It is just too late and too big to fix, even if 'confidence' in the system ( Asia ) could be made whole again by spin the aggregate loss of paper wealth, real wealth and liquidity is beyond comprehension.
Derivatives are the hidden catalyst that have the potential to engulf the world in ruin ( don't you just catastophic lingo? ) .

ps. Gold derivatives will explode in the news some day as well, like copper derivatives a couple years back, the papeer gold markets are even more rigged and fragile than Summitomo found in the copper trades when Yasuo Hamanaka cost them 2.6 billion US$. )

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:33
SWP1 (F* Perhaps you know ...) ID#233199:
...one of those fance eCONomist words for when spot Gold goes up and mining sahres go down?

All the word I come up with only print with all those hastericx thingies ( f*** ; d*** etc... see? ) .

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:33
MM (Warning: Not Gold Related) ID#350179:
I Have A Cunning Plan....
http://www.geocities.com/TelevisionCity/8889/bladder.htm

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:33
Avalon (Indonesian Derivatives; repost from this morning ;) ID#254269:

http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q2/1998_06/980625.110641.speedeeee.htm

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:32
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Gold/Silver ratio = 54.88. The 50 day moving average is 53.55

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:29
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
XAU/Spot Ratio = .236. The 50 day moving average is .264. My database contains 16 occasions where the XAU closed in the 69.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, the reading tonight is #8. The #1 ranking was on 4/24/86 with a gold price of $345.10, an XAU of 69.70, producing a XAU/AU ratio of .202

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:27
JP (I just heard an interesting discussion on the radio) ID#253153:
A definition of an economist--- A person who goes through life doing nothing.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:26
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.43. The 50 day moving average is 30.12

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:23
Trinovant (Evasive Dirt) ID#359316:
- anagram!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:22
Strad Master (Hey LGB!) ID#250297:
What is your short, medium, and long term view on the price of gold?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:20
Avalon (Drudge Report and Free Republic are carrying headlines that Susan McDougall ) ID#254269:
has been ordered freed from prison. Also supposed to be carried by MSNBC and NBC. I have not seen any further details.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:17
RETIRED SOLDIER (F*) ID#347235:
P.S. BUY gold now while it is still cheap

Wish I had bought more of it in 73-74, I only have about 13 of those still. They are still my best investment, the ones since January are holding thier own thanM G-d and I will be ok for a while yet.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:15
CompGeek (Keeling) ID#343259:
I agree with your post.
Buried in there was what I term The other shoe, the derivatives situation. That shoe dropped today in Indonesia. I KNOW that it will drop in Japan as well. They world will then find out that normal banking practice has been a front, and that the security has been sold out the back door. No longer are 30 year assets tied to 30 year debt. Nothing is tied to anything. Banking security is gone. The risk is greater than imaginable... it's even worse, because people believe that the bank has been prudent. It hasn't, its been greedy. IMHO Yen down.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:14
RETIRED SOLDIER (F*) ID#347235:
As my cousin Le Neck Rouge would say the NEW PARADIGM and a pair of dimes still only equals $ .20 HAR HAR

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:09
Charles Keeling (@ LGB RE: Roll Back the calendar) ID#344225:
Copyright © 1998 Charles Keeling/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Good idea! It would be nice to roll the calendar back to 1963 which
was the date our computer was installed at the Tower Of Theft in
Miami Beach.

After looking it over carefully for a week or so, I went to my boss
and said: This operating system is only using two digits for the
year, and that is not going to work when you hit the year 2000.

He said: Keeling---I am going to be long dead and gone by then and
you will no doubt be retired. Don't bother me with BS like that.
Go write some code.

It seems that the same thing happened to programmers and analysts
throughout the world. During that time a DP Manager ( now MIS ) was
not hired because of his expertise with compters because no one
had any experience. Top management of Corporations knew absolutely
nothing about computers and avoided the subject ( and the computer )
at all cost.

Every shirt sleeve programmer knew that a date of reckoning was coming
30 + years ago. Top Management did not listen to the people on the
front lines.

You say you want to budget a project to bring the date situation up
to specs for 2000. If you were the one who said that in 1990, you were
laughed out of the monthly board meeting. Other priorities prevailed.

tick...tick...tick...THERE WILL BE FIREWORKS NEW YEARS EVE OF 1999.

But before that we will have just a little bit of panic and a lot of
hoarding.

Don't you just love the smell of gloom and doom?

Why stop with Y2K?

Japanese Banks COLLAPSE as YEN slides to 235-
Derivatives to bring down US Banking system-
Panic on Wall Street in Oct 98 after Bill Clinton resigns-
EURO PLAN FAILS TO MAKE 1999 TARGET DATE BECAUSE OF CONFLICT WITH Y2K-
GREENSPAN RETIRES AND IS REPLACED BY RR-
Dollar is devalued as BOJ sells 50 % of it's US Treasuries

tick---tick---tick---- BUY YOUR S & P 500 LEAP-PUTS NOW.....



Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:06
Trinovant (Contemplate this) ID#359316:
-
Think now, why do people see not that which is set out so clearly, even
as many businesses set aside great sums to fix the computer problem
of 2000?

The secret protects itself yet the secrets are set out as openly as
any recipe. Their eyes slide over them, because they are not set out in
an expected way. Computers and machines usually work, do they not,
and when they go wrong someone will make amends? Beware, for though
the secrets of Year 2000 are simple, yet they are as the death of
one thousand tiny cuts. These facts, startling or even shocking in
their implications may be discovered by many as they simmer
quietly in the mind- in contemplation, as more speak of the subject, but
some act not, even for preparation just in case, they are foolish
before the day that will come to truly test their resolve.

I offer these thoughts for quite contemplation, it may be for the
good of all, yes?

Student of ANOTHER

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 17:01
LGB (@ CoolJing re ANOTHER) ID#269409:
We watch this together...yes! Truth may withstand the fiery barbs of the biting ears, but nonsense will fold the tent and seek fresh and naive pastures of sheep.... ( As Puetzky did, yes )

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:59
Prometheus (@Aurator) ID#210235:
Copyright © 1998 Prometheus/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Here'a link that will answer that question and take you to wonderland, too.

http://www.rapidresearch.com/advanced.asp

Nothing quite boggles the brain like pulling up lists of stocks trading at 20 times book value with PE's over 70.

Lucent, for examle, with a PE Ratio of 242.8 and Price to book just over 20. Yessir Fun and games for the whole day.

There's AOL with a PE Ratio of 324 and Price to book of 50!

MSFT is only 66.4 and 18.88; Yahoo has a price to book of 54.34. No earnings, so no P/E ratio.


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:59
robnoel__A (WILL THE LAST GM WORKER TO LEAVE PLEASE TURN OFF THE LIGHTS AND BRING THE FLAG WITH YOU) ID#410198:
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1023.htm

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:58
themissinglink (Federal Reserve Board) ID#373403:
Remarks by Vice Chair Alice M. Rivlin
Before the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York, New York
June 18, 1998

The Federal Reserve is paid to worry about threats of inflation that could undermine the health of the economy and make growth unsustainable, and, at the moment, absent the imminent prospect of Asian spillover slowing growth to more sustainable levels, we would be worrying very hard indeed.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:58
LGB (Almost forgot... ) ID#269409:
...ASB....

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:52
Isure (@ Studio R) ID#368244:

When I started on this post, I had to stop and back up to keep my raw emotions in check. My friend I have never lost on many deals in my life.

It does not feel good! I think when this is over, most if not all juniors will be out of business. It is my hope that I will have one, to over come many. In the mean time I am buying the { real stuff}. Gold at 3000, silver at 100 , you bet...but not until the game has been played out. No, I don't want anymore GOLD STOCKS, not now,not ever...Harmony at 25 cents you say, I just might have to think on that.


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:51
CoolJing (LGB : ANOTHER) ID#343171:
Ears that Bite I can't recall when that cropped out but I remember getting one of the best true laughs in a long while. Him gots mad at da widdle kitcoers that were mean to him. Now he has - trumpet sounds: FRIEND OF ANOTHER as his mouth piece, probably on recomendation from the shrink.
We watch this together no?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:49
EB (*Mate* wants some MSFT) ID#187109:
Try 'is 'un...
http://chart4.bigcharts.com:80/report?r=cobrand&site=avidtrader&onbad=cobrandsymb&symb=msft&time=20&uf=0&sid=3140&sec=c&xyz=177631219&s=29238
how's that for a Yahooooo!
away...

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:43
pyramid (Rambling Thoughts) ID#217268:
My calendar shows the FOMC is scheduled to meet June 30 & July 1, 1998:

* Just before lots of folks leave for a long holiday weekend.
* The end of the 1998 and beginning of the 1999 fiscal year.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:41
Peter (George S COLE) ID#225157:
Hey George are you still waiting for your gold BULL? Do you have any money left over from the beating that you have been taking over the past couple of years?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:40
Gollum (@LGB) ID#43349:
Maybe we should look up the last year that started on the same day of the week as the year 2000 and has the same number of days in Feb.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:37
themissinglink (Let me get this straight) ID#373403:
I buy 100 ounces fine gold and start selling it as an investment. I offer to hold the gold in my safe as a service. After a year I sold all the gold and notice that only a few people ever want to take possession.

So I resell the same gold to other investors figuring I can always cover for the few people making withdrawls. My attorney tells me that this might not be right so I should instead sell a contract good for physical delivery so that it does not appear that I sold someones gold to someone else.

This is legal? This is COMEX?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:34
aurator () ID#255284:
All
Anyone tell me current P/Es of Microsoft and Yahoo please?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:31
LGB (@ Cooljing re ANOTHER) ID#269409:
Cool you said I saw with eyes that saw....

and I saw with Ears that Bite !!

( ANOTHER and Kosares are One...Ooohhhhhmmmmmmmmm )

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:30
Jack (Think that Bobby and the Boyz are preparing for a second attack on the currency spec's) ID#252127:

Yen at 142.05 to the $. Wish they do the same to the gold shorts.
http://quote.yahoo.com/m5?a=1&s=USD&t=JPY

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:27
LGB (Roll back calender to 1900) ID#269409:
Just think, in 35 years it'd be 1933, and we could make sure the Gold standard stayed in place instead of scrappping it and confiscating Gold! You fiat currency haters would be in seventh heaven.....Even if it DID induce a second massive depression!!!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:24
HenryD (Alert! Off Topic! Off Topic!! Off Topic!!) ID#36156:
-
Answering maching answers:

WE ARE BORG. RESISTANCE IS FUTILE. YOU WILL BE ASSIMILATED. But
we're not home right now. So leave a message at the tone, and
we'll assimilate you later.

-----------

Hi! Rob's answering machine is broken. This is his refrigerator.
Please speak very slowly, and I'll stick your message to myself
with one of these magnets.

-----------

Hello, this is Rob's toaster. Rob's new answering machine is in
the shop for repairs, so please leave your message when the toast
is done... ( Cachunk! )


-----------

Hello, caller number nine, you're on the air.

-----------

( Very fast: ) Hi, this is 904-4344. If you want to leave a message,
please wait for the tone. If you want to leave your name and
number, please press pound, 3, then dial your name, then press 6
and dial your number. If you want to leave your name and just a
message, press star, 6, ask for extension 4443, then leave your
name and message. If you want to leave your number and the time
you called, please press star twice, spin in a circle, press 1
twice, talk loud and ( BEEP )

----------

This is the Literacy Self Test Hotline. After the tone, leave your
name and number, and recite a sentence using today's vocabulary
word. Today's word issupercilious.

-----------

Greetings, you have reached the Sixth Sense Detective Agency. We
know who you are and what you want, so at the sound of the tone,
please hang up.

-----------

I can't come to the phone now because I have amnesia and I feel
stupid talking to people I don't remember. I'd appreciate it if
you could help me out by leaving my name and telling me something
about myself. Thanks.

-----------

Thank you for calling the CSU Automated Hearing Test Line. Prepare
for Test

1.*Is this tone louder in your left ear or right ear? ... BEEP

----------

( Rod Sterling imitation: ) You're dazed, bewildered, trapped in a
world without time, where sound collides with colour and shadows
explode. You see a signpost up ahead -- This is no ordinary
telephone answering device... You have reached, The Twilight Phone.

----------

( In a bored voice: ) Heaven, God speaking...

-----------

Lucifer speaking. Who in hell do you want?

-----------

I can't come to the phone now, so if, well, actually, I CAN come
to the phone now, I mean, like, I'm at the phone NOW, recording
this message, but I'm doing this NOW, while you're listening to it
LATER, except for you I Guess it's NOW, like, when you're
listening to it... I mean, like, wait, gosh. This is so confusing.

-----------

You have reached the CPX-2000 Voice Blackmail System. Your voice
patterns are now being digitally encoded and stored for later use.
Once this is done, our computers will be able to use the sound of
YOUR voice for literally thousands of illegal and immoral
purposes. There is no charge for this initial consultation.
However our staff of professional extortionists will contact you
in the near future to further explain the benefits of our service,
and to arrange for your schedule of payment.

Remember to speak clearly at the sound of the tone. Thank you.

-----------

You have reached the number you have dialled. Please leave a
message after the beep.

-----------

Hello, this is Rob. I've got a puppy in one hand and a Smith &
Wesson .38 in the other. Leave a message or the puppy gets it.

-----------

A is for academics, B is for beer. One of those reasons is why
we're not here. So leave a message.

-----------

Hi. I'm probably home. I'm just avoiding someone I don't like.
Leave me a message, and if I don't call back, it's you.



Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:22
LGB (Keeling, Allen, et al...Y2K solution) ID#269409:
The solution is simple. We roll back the calender and relive the 1900's beginning 1/1/00......

In this way we can undo the mistakes of the 20th century!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:20
LGB (@ CoolJing...your Y2k Preperations) ID#269409:
Did you say K*Y jelly, or Y*K jelly? Just wanted to make sure you have your priorities straight here!!!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:18
Charles Keeling (@ DAVE IN CO RE: Y2K BUG) ID#344225:
Copyright © 1998 Charles Keeling/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
While I was on Vacation in Florida I looked up some of my old friends
who are still in the computer field with a major firm.

The Y2K bug is taking all of their time. Moreover, they are adding
people to the staff quite rapidly to fight the monster.

First they spent a lot of time looking for a quick fix. Several
software writers had developed helpful tools. Nothing really worked very well. So now they have to face the fact that each program and each
line of code in each program will have to be examined in order to
come up with a fix that will be 100%.

I talked to another old friend who has been in DP at American Express.

She had the same story. They looked for the silver bullet first and
wasted a lot of time. Now they are adding HUNDREDS of programmers to
the staff. This is the Am Ex DP department located in Ft. Lauderdale
Fla. ( Sunrise I believe )

As a retired Analyst, I am tempted to re-enter the fray. 100K a year
would entice me out.

I put main frames in as the Systems Services Manager for NCR during
the 65-90 time frame. My territory was West Palm Beach South to Key
West.

The date bug could be looked at as analogus to building a 100 story
building on a bad foundation. It is pervasive.

Most of the programmers who are left in the main frame arena inherited
the application code from us old timers so they are really LOST.

To LGB: This Y2K bug will be the most signifigant financial event
of modern times. Opportunity is knocking for those who would like to buy long term S & P 500 put/leaps.

NO my name is not Peutz ( sp ) .

Have a good millineum--------

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:18
LGB (@ Allen...Why Two Kay Ignoramuses) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Allen. While I freely admit to complete ignorance on the complexity and depth of the Y2K bug issue, the skeptical and cynical side of me screams out Where have we heard this so many times before?

Then I look at what many insider MIS guy's have told me at various companies I visit, what my Juror friend shared, at the frenzied media hype ( which has now reached all populist media as I mentioned earlier ) , at the money and resources being thrown at the problem.......and I have to ask myself.

Does it make reasonable sense that an economy / society which got along just great with little or no computerization 2 decades ago, is now going to self destruct because of this one programming problem, to which billions of dollars and man hours and resources is being devoted, and which we still have a year and a half to resolve?

Count me.....skeptical......

I think that 5% number you use, will apply to the overall level of disruption, and inconvenience after 1/1/00......It'll amount to about 5% for awhile as the final bugs are corrected and then fade away.

I don't minimize a huge problem of which I do not have detailed expert knowledge...I minimize the apocolyptic prophecies of those who have no faith in the history of ingenuity and problem solving.... that we've been displaying in thh high tech world for the past 20 years already.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:16
EJ (The rest of my Y2K preparations) ID#229277:
And a gun. I know, I know. I'm not a big fan of guns. But if the FAA doesn't keep the planes flying I can't do my job. I'll be sitting around playing cards with my buds, drinking beer, gin, vodka, etc., but not all at the same time, of course. After a few months of this I'll probably be so bored I'll want to shoot myself.
-EJ

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:13
CoolJing (My Y2K preparations: napalm) ID#343171:
1 ) 55 gal. drum y2k jelly

2 ) 55 gal. drum un-leaded


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:11
EJ (My Y2K preparations) ID#229277:
1 ) Store 12/1999 bank, insurance, credit card, etc. statements in a safe place, like anywhere except my desk
2 ) Store a month's worth of cash in the safe deposit box in case people go nutty and take out their money
3 ) Buy a lot of beer
4 ) Buy a lot of champaign
5 ) Buy a lot of vodka
6 ) Buy a lot of gin
7 ) Buy a lot of mescal
8 ) etc., etc.

Ok! I'm ready!

-EJ


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:05
LGB (@ Allen...Hucksters and such) ID#269409:
I got the impression that the guy was quite well respected in his field, and I don't believe he was telling me he was a huckster...only that he and his peers were profiting nicely and awash in job security...in part due to the magnitude of the problem yes, but also in part due to unwarranted hysteria and hype....have you opened any Newsweek, Time, WSJ lately?

You can't escape alarmist articles on Y2K...As popular a topic as Monica Lewinsky....It ain't exactly going to take anyone by surprise.....

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:04
CoolJing (Farfel:) ID#343171:
LGB was a Puetz antagonist, he speaks true, I saw with eyes that saw ( oops I just blew my ANOTHER disguise )

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:04
Allen(USA) (Opinions&EveryoneHasOne) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Opinions are based on whatever a person determines he/she holds as reality. If a person is fond of their own conceits then there is no need to have a basis in hard fact or careful thinking. Any person's thoughts on Y2K issues are of very great concern to anyone who has the faintest clue as to the potential problem involved.

If a person states an opinion based on something other than conceit then those who hear it may examine it for its validity. This is normal discourse. Some opinions are not very well formed or reasoned out. Some are based on inaccurate premises. Some do not explain how a particular asserted solution can be practically accomplished in the real world.

My basic problem with the opinions of those who 'laugh' off scenarios which imply a destruction of what we consider a normal social and economic order is that I find their opinions are not based on very good premises, data or solutions. Further these opinions do not take into account the magnitude and extent of the problem.

It is my due diligence to carefully examine an arguement or opinion; to test it and prove it. It is not a matter of whether it fits with my preconceived notions ( a form of team forming ) .

Here are the typical things I find that do not wash:

1 ) 'People are working on this very hard. We will be OK.'

Prove this. Tell me who and how many and where and the plans and the extent of accomplishement of these people. Tell me about all the success stories.

2 ) 'I'm an expert and I am sure that this thing is not that hard to fix.'

What are you an expert in? Everything in the whole world? Tell me more.

3 ) 'There will be problems but nothing to be worried about.'

If you accept the idea that no one truly knows the outcome then you can not accept this answer any more than a person saying it will be bad.

4 ) 'All the doom sayers are profit mongers.'

This is a blanket slander. Prove it. Does this go along with 'trust me'? There are some very consciencious people out there who do not need this problem in order to live the good life. Please show evidence that these people are ego maniacs.

5 ) 'Even if this or that fails everything else will basicly be OK.'

Tell me how you got here from there. Walk this through for me. Show me how this works in practise. If the government systems fail then how is it exactly that this will not materially impact everything else in a very bad way. Have you ever lived in anarchy before? Give me two good, non-trivial examples of major problems which, when we walk it through, will not touch the fabric of our society.

---------

Let's say this: 5% of all systems will fail.

5% of Electrical generation AND distribution.
5% of telecom.
5% of banking.
5% of transportation.
5% of governments.
5% of all scheduling AND supply systems.
5% of energy supplies.
5% of raw materials.
5% of military systems.
5% of international banking.
5% of financial and commodities markets.
5% of medical technology.
5% of all manufacturing capacity.
5% of businesses.

Completely randomize the 'where' of all of the above. In some places nothing occures, in others it all happens. This happens all at once.

Since these things form an interdependent supersystem we are not talking about simple failures here but compounded, cascading failures. If electricity is not available to a Y2K compliant business, bank or telecom provider then they shut down. PERIOD. This is garranteed. On it goes. Those companies feed others which feed others.

One US shipper, UPS, handles 7% of the GDP of the USA. That's just one transport company, folks. What else do we not think about because we have not tripped over it yet?

Every entity has vital relationships with outside suppliers and customers. If these break down then the entity freezes and can not function.

If, on average, there are less then 1 vital interconnection for each entity in an economy then any particular problem will tend to die out.

If there is, on average, greater than one vital interconnection for entities in an economy then the whole thing will cascade: like a nuclear chain reaction; like a wild fire; like an epidemic.

Between an average of 1.01 and 1.99 interconnects there is a parabolic acceleration of effect. Any average level of 2 or greater will produce an explosive disintegration.

This is not speculation it is the mathematics of the problem. It is there and real. It is predictable and it is bad. I will post an Excel sheet which does this simulation later.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 16:00
LGB (@ LGB...My Y2K preperations) ID#269409:
1 ) Keep Dec. 99 statements.

2 ) Buy Kleenex for all the laughing till I cry that I'll be doing on 1/3/00 when I start reposting some of the current dire Kitco predictions on this board, that fail to materialize!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:56
LGB (@ Wizened, Farfel) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You really ARE a short timer here Farfel...Puetze's disciple? Ha! Ask anyone, I was his most vociferous detractor! Not only did I NOT lose money on Puetz, I MADE money because I used him as a reliable contrary indicator, and made broad market index plays, short term, every time he called for a crash!

Ask anyone who was around at the time, or go back into the archives. Wish Puetzky was still here, he'd have called for a crash this week for SURE and I could have made a 2 or 3 day profit play into the S&P, just as I did with him so many times before during Full Moon and Eclispe induced crashes and such....

Come back Puetzke!! I'm ready to make buckage after the next pullback, when you predict an imminent crash!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:46
EJ (Gollum: Whaaaaadayatink. Ize born yestatay?) ID#229277:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
That wasn't you! Programs kick in at 2pm. Ha!

Still wide-eyed at the showing on the Hang Seng today. For the past longest time that market has been a giant, 350,000,000 horsepower cash dispose-all to anyone putting money into it yet lots of folks jumped in today. I bet that positive enthusiasm can turn on a dime, tho.

Had lunch with a TV generation friend today. He's been a hardcore in it for the long term, mutual funds as retirement funds bank, new era, go stocks, yahoooo! guy for as long as I've know him ( about 3 years ) . Today he said he was dumping his mutual funds this week because, as he put it, the market seems to have lost its momentum to 10,000 and a crash would be devastating to me and my family. Asked why he thought it might crash he said, Because everyone keeps talking about it being overvalued and crashing.

There's one little snowball rolling off the mountain. Hope breeds hope. Fear breeds fear.

Thanks for the excellent analogy, by the way.

-EJ

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:46
kitkat (Spot Close - $293.70) ID#218388:
No legs
No major low
No minor high
No Venerosa $50 increase
No massive Japanese Gold buys
No $30,000 / ANOTHER oz.
No CRASH
No Cheesehead





Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:44
General (another reason to fear y2k) ID#365216:
Copyright © 1998 General/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Not only will a y2k bug cause power, food, water and other
shortages/disruptions, it will allow our soon-to-be Ex-President
Clinton to INVOKE MARTIAL LAW AND STAY IN POWER INDEFINITELY.
We should fear this more than any other calamity. At least I
can prepare for a food storage or a riot ( load up on ammo ) .
How can I fight a power-mad president? Can a president be impeached
while Martial Law exists or does he basically have dictatorial
powers? Something to think about.
PS Check out http://www.euy2k.com

That is all.
Dismissed.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:43
Grizz (Folks are used to coins being small change) ID#431366:
Even the US$1 is small change anymore and the new dollar coin will reinforce that impression.
The days of US$5, $10 or $20 coins are long gone.
These denominations are now expected to be paper notes.
The habit has been broken - and so has been the back of Gold and Silver Coinage been broken.
Buy a bag full of junk Silver quarters and each coin is only with US$1 at today's ( US$5.35/oz ) Silver prices - small change!
96.45 grains of 90% Silver = 0.18 ozt = 97 cents!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:42
Prometheus (@An interesting find) ID#210235:
Some thoughtful analysis of gold and silver here.

http://135.145.5.70/bobmeier.htm

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:38
MM (DOW down, by Gollum!) ID#350179:
8923.62

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:30
kitkat (Deutsche Morgan) ID#218388:
Anyone? - Is Deutsche Morgan brokerage based in Germany?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:29
farfel (@WIZENED...you mean LGB was a disciple of Puetz...) ID#340302:
...NOW I understand why he is so hateful toward the poor fellow.

IMHO

OK, yeah, uh huh, duh, OK, I get it, Duh?

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:28
kitkat (@OLD GOLD) ID#218388:
I'd love to wager on the price of gold with you, but my money is already committed. We won't see legs until CHEESEHEAD rolls out the barrel. THEN WATCH IT EXPLODE!!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:27
Wizened (Did someone say 'peutz the preacher of armageddon is back) ID#242303:

Many a dollar was lost following this pied piper- even by the erudite LGB.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:23
Jack (My Y2K Preparations ) ID#252127:
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

1. Keep statements of all accounts.
2. Keep an adequate amount of large tins containing meat and vegitables, to be consumed only/if food shortages occur.
3. Have an adequate store of wood and charcole and water for cooking purposes.
4. Keep full tank of gas in my autos, plus a full 5 gallon can for each auto.
5. Have all firearms in the ready mode.
6. Have flood lights on my roof to warn airplanes so as to keep them from crashing into my house and igniting the gas cans which will burn the neighboorhood down.

Actually I consider 1, 2 & 3 as important but do not expect having to resort to them.
Hope you take 6 as a joke.

Feel that Y2K is a desperation attempt by some gold bugs, who while not entirely losing touch of what the powers are doing to their country and savings are relying on absolute fear to drive the price of gold up.

Better to own ten acres of cultivatable land with water rights when you get right down to it.


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:22
STUDIO.R (@Isure...........) ID#288369:
Thought I might compare buy signal objectives with you on our SA stocks. I hope to add to my holdings at these next entry prices: Rangy, a dime; Drooy, a quarter; Harmony, fifty cents. How does this look to you? Probably, will buy a tranche of ABX at two bucks.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:21
Spud Master (@6Pak: another view of th GM strike...) ID#28586:
is it possible that big inventories of UNSOLD GM cars led GM to
WANT this strike? Hmmm....

Spud

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:20
farfel (@OLD GOLD...in defense of Puetz...) ID#340302:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...you cannot declare that there are any more absolute rules in this stock market.

We are in a New Paradigm, remember? It is an existential world today. The fact that reality was one thing yesterday does not mean that today will be a replicant of that reality or that tomorrow will be a replicant of today's reality.

After all, if all the old rules applied, then we would NOT have a market today at 9000....if all the old rules applied, then why does Switzerland ( of all countries ) constantly talk down the value of its most precious asset?

Forget the old rules...we are swimming in the Age of the Clinton Anti-Logic. The old rules will fall apart this year with the arrival of some most interesting left field event.

IMHO, of course.

Meanwhile enjoy the party....and rock with me, rock with me all night long!

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:19
OLD GOLD () ID#242325:
Modest gold and gold stock rally today. Anybody want to take bets this will have legs?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:18
Argent (LGB) ID#255217:
You are absolutely right. Everything is subject to the context from which it's taken. We all tend to pigeonhole things according to our own arbitrary judgements, which can be dangerous. That old note might be worth $20 today, but no way could it be worth a $100. If you had seen it, you would have agreed. It was limp. And it was common. But I wish now I had a few hundred of them. Maybe there's a moral there, somewhere, too.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:14
OLD GOLD (CRASH CALLS) ID#242325:
NASDAQ now in the minus column.

JP: If you are really Steve Puetz using another handle as I suspect, this is the third crash you have called that failed to materialize. Spring 1997, fall 1997 and now summer 1998. You forgot the golden rule; AS LONG AS GOLD IS WEAK AND BONDS ARE STRONG, A 10% CORRECTION IS AS BAD AS IT GETS FOR US STOCKS.

If gold finally troughs this summer as I expect and is in a major bull phase by fall, then we may finally get that crash, or, at least a severe bear.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:10
Trinovant (Y2K) ID#359316:
Seems that the Y2K bug could cause anything between nothing
and global thermonuclear catastrophe. If it comes out somewhere
in the middle, well, I for one think it prudent to take
reasonable precautions, including at least an insurance
percentage of investments in PMs.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:07
Trinovant (farfel: Is it here?) ID#359316:
See a dentist.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:06
Allen(USA) (As to LGB's expert acquantance, ..) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I'm a bit perplexed. Do I take seriously a person who admits to being a huckster in order to inflate his importance in the eyes of current and potenial customers ( as regards Y2K and networks ) ? Will I take this person's word about THE VIABILITY OF THE ENTIRE WORLDWIDE INFRASTRUCTURE of embedded systems, software and connectivty ( networks ) though he only knows what he knows ( a very small segment of that sector ) ? I will listen to this one person laugh as many people with integrity and expertise far in excess of his are pointing to grave difficulties or worse?

Will I laugh along with him as the current SEC reports indicate that in the USA ( the most advanced country in terms of awareness and remediation ) reports that fully 2/3rds of all filing companies have not moved past 'assessment and inventory' ( even though a/i pertains to approximately 15% of the entire effort to remediate ) ? Will I laugh loudly enough to convince myself that if 10% of all systems ( including power, telecom and banking ) fail simultaneously then there will only be minor disturbances?

Ha. Ha. Ha. Bring on the clowns.

No blessing is ever recorded to a mocker. In fact mockers are cursed and punished.

What we need is evidence and commitment. Evidence of companies who garrantee that they are compliant and their boards, president and chief officers sign statements which bind them all to liability for the company's failure to be free of adverse material effect due to internal Y2K issues.

Find me two or three of these. Rather find me 23,000 of these in the USA, this being 1/10th of 1% of the 23 million small and medium sized businesses that are threatened. Forget the Fortune companies. They are ultimately dependent on these 23,000,000. Please show me the 40,000 added daily to this initial list of 23,000 companies whose leadership is confident and willing to lay their @sses on the line. Then I will feel much better.

Thank you.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:06
robnoel__A (farfel.....buy numismatics and smile with me <:-)) ID#410198:
.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:03
LGB (@ Oldman) ID#269409:
You were right as usual...you called the DOW move PERFECTLY..... If folks followed your market calls the past few years instead of buying Gold, they'd have a helluva lot more paper to buy Gold with!!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:01
LGB (@ Argent...Old bills) ID#269409:
Argent, you said I'd like to have seen the look on HIS face when a coin dealer later told him how much the bill was really worth.

Coin dealer? Don't you mean PAPRE dealer? ( hehe ) ....also, the look on his face would depend on how long he waited. It's worth $20 to $100 or more these days depending on condition and series and such. ( And they say here on Kitco that paper isn't worth anything!!!! )

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:01
6pak (FWIW) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
GM to escalate plant idling to conserve cash

DETROIT ( Reuters ) - General Motors Corp., desperate to save cash in the face of crippling labor strikes, is moving to shut down the rest of its North American manufacturing facilities,

***** according to the memo from GM's Manufacturing Managers Council.****
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/AUTOS-GM.html

NOTE:
1938--In describing the ever-growing attack against the CIO's unity and very life. John L. Lewis, its president and moving spirit, at the first constitutional convention in 1938 when it was reconstituted as the Congress of Industrial Organizations, he said:

To millions, because of this movement, the word liberty has acquired new meaning. Often those who seek only license for their plundering, cry liberty. In the guise of this old American ideal, men of vast economic domain would destroy what little liberty remains to those who toil. The liberty we seek is different. It is liberty for common people--freedom from economic bondage, freedom from the oppressions of the vast bureaucracies of great corporations, freedom to regain again some human initiative, freedom that arises from economic security and human self-respect.

April 29 1938--President Roosevelt told Congress:
Close financial control, through interlocking spheres of influence over channels of investment, and through the use of financial devices like holding companies and strategic minority interests, creates close control of the business policies of enterprise which masquerade as *independent units*. That heavy hand of integrated financial and management control lies upon the strategic areas of American industry. Private enterprise is ceasing to be free enterprise and is becoming a cluster of private collectivism; masking itself as a system of free enterprise after the American model, it is fast becoming a concealed cartel system after the European model.

( ( The government National Resources Committee reported in 1939 that the nation's economy was largely controlled by eight ( 8 ) comparatively small groups of men by no means independent of each other The eight ( 8 ) groups, controlling $61,000.000.000 of investments in industrial corporations, railroads, banks, and public utilities, were Morgan-First National, Rockefeller, Kuhn, Loeb, Mellon, du Pont, the Chicago group, the Cleveland group, and the Boston group. ) )

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 15:00
farfel (And the Dow Fiesta continues in Full Swing...) ID#340302:
...drop some more acid and join in the fun.

C'mon Oldman, put on your dancing shoes, baby!

We're gonna boogie-woogie woogie till we just can't boogie no more!

Yeah.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:57
Delphi (Spelling) ID#258142:
compatitor = competitor

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:56
HopeFull (FED IS EASING....) ID#402148:
...or JAPANESE are doing it for them. THe 3 month t-bill at 4.99%, and dollar down against all except the YEN. Rush in of dough from Japaness to safety is gonna give N. American economy a jolt.

HB

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:55
farfel (I would like to say something positive about gold today....) ID#340302:
...but unfortunately words escape me.

It's grim out there, real grim.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:54
Avalon (Dave in CO; I understand that tolerant 1 is signing up to run HRC's) ID#254269:
Presidential bid but please keep this to yourself until the public announcement is made.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:53
farfel (RE: AVALON'S 14:42...A MUST-READ...) ID#340302:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...for laymen in Economics.

Samuelson is one of the most astute economists in the US. His analysis represents the first official warning ( at least, as far as I have read ) concerning the amazing bonds bubble developing in this country...far worse than even the stock market bubble.

Samuelson recognizes there are strong inflationary forces at work in the economy such that there can not be a pure deflationary scenario unfold domestically.

Essentially, he is a stagflationist ( although he will never raise the dirty word in public ) .

Any left-field event will cause massive drops in both bonds and equities.
In this, The Year of the Left Field Event, you must be extraordinarily greedy to be either a bonds or equities bull today.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:53
Argent (Grizz, at least you tried. Good for you!) ID#255217:
-
Back sometime in the 1960's when I was young and foolish, a friend of mine and I were drinking beer at various and sundry places and I decided to play a trick on one, young sweet thing behind the bar. I happened to have in my billfold an old, well worn $1.00 bill, series 1923. This is one of the old, large size saddleblanket notes. They look just like the new, small-size notes on the front, only about 50% larger.

I ordered a beer and handed her the old note as she placed the beer in front of me. In the semi-darkness of the bar, she took the $1.00 bill and tried to put it in the cash register with the other $1.00 bills, but of course it wouldn't fit, being much larger.

She tried it again with the same results, then took a long hard look at the note and handed ir back to me. I can't take this, she said. Why not?, I asked. Because it's counterfeit., she said. No, ma'm, it isn't., I said, and was about to explain when her boss, an older man who had been watching all this came up and said, I'll take it., and gave me back my change ( a beer in those days was less than a dollar ) .

Moral #1: Age and experience make a big difference. Youth combined with inexperience can cost you.

My friend and I had a good laugh over that one. I lost maybe a dollar, because the old bill was so worn that it was worth only about $2.00 at that time in the sixties. It was worth a dollar to see the look on that girl's face when she tried to put that big bill in the register with the other ones.
Her boss probably though he had been shrewd and had picked up a rare bill for a dollar. I'd like to have seen the look on HIS face when a coin dealer later told him how much the bill was really worth.

Moral #2: Things are not always as they seem.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:51
CompGeek (Gollum yeah, but...) ID#343259:
Right now we are seeing a sloow slide in the Yen. What is the Rubin team gonna do? Wait for some number and make a big $2B or $4B slash like the last time, or quietly buy it down, unannounced?
If I were a market mover, I might me tempted to try a 10 minute trade. Since I'm not, and you are ( Don't pay any attention to the man behind the curtain ) , I'll keep ya' covered while you try it. :- )

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:47
Delphi (Some positive info about Y2K bug) ID#258142:
According to Byte magazine, IBM developed sliding window approach to Y2K, defining two-digit years according to 100-year window around current date, 19 years to the future and 80 years to the past. In many cases this approach resolve software problems. This technology of Big Blue was adopted by Lotus in its new office software package - SmartSuit Millennium - compatitor of Microsoft Office.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:47
Dave in CO (@Y2K opinions) ID#229103:
All predictions about the outcome of Y2K are opinions, and opinions are like ... Everybody has one. Unfortunately, if the gloom-and-doomers are even close in their predictions, anyone who has not prepared is at risk, and the people who told them not to worry will be even more at risk from retribution.

Future presidents Gore ( high-tech expert ) and Hillary should be saying what LGB and others are saying if Y2K is a non-issue. Why are they silent? Are they waiting until after the Nov. election to tell us GOOD news?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:42
Avalon (Stock Market worries Fed, according to Samuelson,) ID#254269:

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980625/interview__2.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:37
Gollum (@CompGeek) ID#35571:
They're all afraid ol' Rube's up there on the hill side with his intervention shotgun awaiten for one of them boys to stik his neck out too fur.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:33
CompGeek (Yen makin' a run at 142) ID#343259:
Why wouldn't someone come in right now, short the YEN, big time, and buy back at Y148 or so, or does Rubin have the market makers in the bag?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:18
Gollum (@Grizz) ID#35571:
A lot of people sotckin up on gold and silver coins for surviving in the days after civilizations collapse are gonna find you can't get a pizza for them then either. They should be stocking up on tools and large tanks full of fuel oil and stuff worth trading for.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:14
Wizened (Jeil) ID#242303:

Where are you hiding? Your forecasts and reality seem to have parted company significantly.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:13
Gollum (@EJ) ID#35571:
Hey, EJ! Got your eye on the DOW? Watch me drop it right in there. Perfect three rail shot. Wait til you see what silver does tomorrow.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:09
EJ (LGB: the guy you met works with newer networks not with legacy systems) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It's the older legacy systems that have the big Y2K problems. Some of these systems are 20 year old or older. The reason these systems are still in place is because they were patched together over many years as software applications were written to automate more and more organization functions that used to be done by hand with paper. Think of these systems as fossilized business processes. These fossil systems were deposited under the business infrustructure railroad tracks that the operations run on. These fossils are now holding the tracks together long after the original railroad ties, the by-hand methods, rotted away. Newer systems will work faster and more reliably but there is too much at risk to the operations of the company to replace them, the risk/reward isn't there. It is because these fossil systems are so critical to the business that they are so old -- that's kind of paradoxical. And it's because they are so old that they are so vulnerable to Y2K problems.

Fidelity began work to fix their legacy systems over five years ago and now are at the point where they can offer public statements about their readiness. I posted here a couple of days ago a public statement from the Fidelity web site on Y2K readiness.

I don't subscribe to the Y2K La Fin Le Monde school either. The bottom line is this, don't do your banking, invest your money, expect electricity or insurance or phone service, etc., from any company that is not in a position to make a similar statement within the next year. The beauty of the free market system is that you can move your money and investments from a bank or investment company that is not compliant to one that is. That's tough nuts for the competitors that didn't do it. But we're going to have to count on the SEC and other gummint orgs to see that the utility, telecommunications, and other regional monopolies fix stuff.

-EJ

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:03
Straddler (LGB) ID#280215:
Copyright © 1998 Straddler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Don't always agree with you, but it's obvious here that some will pounce on anything to try and prove you wrong, probably because you've been right too many times for some to handle. As you stated in your last sentence, the basic point to all is that it will definitely be a pain in the rear to many and might even cause delays and major problems in many areas. But it won't cause the end of civilization and economic depression. That's the point of his post, IMHO. Again, this is my opinion, but I agree with him. Give the technical world more credit. They got us in to this problem, and they will get us out. This the perfect example of why there always seems to be so much bickering on Kitco. Making a mountain out of a mole hill and getting angry because someone disagrees with your opinion. Grow up!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:02
kiwi (LGB If you don't mind me asking....) ID#194311:
Copyright © 1998 kiwi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
beyond network consultancy what else is this expert knowledgeable on?

I have yet to speak with one person who has correctly stated the problem. I agree there are scores of consultants over-stating the problem for the quick buck...but good on them if the fools who don't know enough to be duped.
Quite often here some people allude to the possibilites, Alberich has come closest to defining what may happen, but not once have I seen a statement from a machine level programmer from pre-1995 that correctly states possible outcomes. You see nobody has to deal with machine code any longer for good reason, it's murder, nowadays low-level programmers use symbolic machine level representations so even they could not go back and learn BBC assembly for the Motorola 8082 or such.
It is an unknown quantity this problem and that is it biggest downside. Do not believe any expert who cannot tell you what might happen to date sensitive machine code for they only know half the story.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 14:01
CPO@AU (J(Y2K -Non Technicals ID 174239 so you are an ex programmer ) ID#329186:
Copyright © 1998 CPO@AU/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Why could you not stand the pace if you are happy for them to get it right over a period of time with hit & miss fixes perhaps you should consider where you will park yourself |~ when a few Nuke power plants melt down and maybe the odd Nuke ICBM by accident or design launches itself.
There is quite a lot of missing code perhaps you have been ex for a long time but please do not try to lull others into a false sense of security
Maybe you should also consider the other part of the World that has not begun to address the problem of Y2K ( I presume you are aware that their systems can taint the so called compliant systems...........
..please think of mankind before you plans to retire after 2000

cpo




Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 13:59
BillD (Long Drooy @) ID#258427:
2 7/32...go gold


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 13:58
Grizz (Tried buying a US$6.95 small pizza with a Silver Maple Leaf) ID#431366:
The counter clerk wouldn't take it. He said It ain't worth squat. Why, asked I. Cause it's silver and silver ain't worth squat. I persisted. He said I'd have to talk with the owner - but she isn't in today.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 13:56
Skip (LGB (Y2K fanatics....)) ID#287129:
Copyright © 1998 Skip/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thank you for posting your comments about the Y2K bug. Assuming that what you were told is true, that would validate my own opinions that I've held for many months regarding Y2K...

1. It IS an expensive problem to correct.
2. Most companies WILL be Y2K compliant shortly before ( or after ) 1/1/00.
3. The seriousness of the problem will be BOTH overstated and understated, because of ignorance and/or because people might have something to gain ( or hide ) by overstating or understating the problem.

Somehow I do not believe that the economy will crash; however, I can easily see more people buying PM's just to be on the safe side. Also, it is logical for the expense of correcting the problem PLUS public concern to have an impact on the DOW.

These are my opinions.

--Skip

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 13:54
HenryD (Skip - I only noted the obvious, the thanks go to you.) ID#36156:
It takes courage to bear your thoughts the way you did. The real reward was in watching how your fellow Kitcoites rallied to your side.

It was a very special cyber-moment.

HenryD

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 13:44
LGB (Y2K fanatics....) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
For the more zealous among you...you're mistating the intent and content of my post. It's not MY opnion, it's a true credentialed experts opinion, and one who has his finger on the pulse of the problem in the center of the high tech. hub of the universe...the Silicon Valley.

Secondly, as I clearly stated in the first post, the guy didn't say it was a little bug or that it was no problem...what he said was that with the enormous amount of money and resources being devoted to it, the frenzied media hype, the total awareness, and the level of compliance that already exists, the effects at Y2k day one will be minimal, and that an economic Armegeddon is laughable.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 13:33
MtHighNC (Gagnrad) ID#347239:
Do you have anymore Bulge url's?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 13:31
Skip (Thanks to all) ID#287129:
Copyright © 1998 Skip/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I was quite touched by some of the comments posted in response to what I posted yesterday regarding the bleeding goldbugs. Just now, in going through today's postings, I ran across HenryD' comments, which are worth reproducing here ( thank you, HenryD! ) :

I have just finished reading last night's discussions, and in particular the plight of our brother Skip. I was moved by the collective outpouring of support expressed by this cyber-family. It was a communal embrace of empathy and encouragement.

Last night you restored my faith and pride in being a Kitcoite. I haven't felt this way in a long, long time.

Kitco truly, truly has a Heart of GOLD!!!

HenryD ( Thank you for a GOLDen moment. )

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 13:20
Argent (Japanese imports, FWIW) ID#255217:
-
Back around 1990, I decided to try my hand at photography and make serious pictures ( mostly landscape stuff ) . To do this I felt I needed some serious camera equipment and over the next couple of years bought some high quality, medium format stuff. The total came to several thousand dollars and I did my thing with photography for several years.
Virually 100% of the equipment was made in Japan and I bought at a time when the yen was probably at, or near its peak.

Being conservative, I bought with caution, with the intention of keeping the equipment for a long, long time. Since that time, however, the Japanese manufacturers have continued to upgrade and improve nearly all their cameras and lenses, with appropriate increases in prices, of course. As anyone in photography knows, the dealers in the US are continually pushing the new equipment.

But now, especially in the past six months to a year, there seems to be an incresed urgency in the marketing of Japanese cameras. Hardly a week goes by when I do not receive a new brochure in the mail, trying to entice me to trade in that old equipment for new, better stuff. And, what really surprises me, is that the prices are still horrendous, even with the trade-ins. But it is obvious that somebody, somewhere is going all out to sell new stuff from Japan.

That the Japanese are hurting very badly is clear. But you would think that they would perhaps lower their prices as an added inducement for American consumers to buy. This has not been the case in my ( limited ) experience. I have no intention of making new purchases at the current prices. I believe that if the Japanese truly want to improve their situation, they will HAVE to lower prices to reflect the greatly reduced value of the yen vis-a-vis the dollar. If they do not do so, then they will continue their slow, steady decline with devastating results.

Although I haven't checked, I suspect that Japanese cars are pretty much the same. When the Japanese get serious and lower prices by 20, 30 or 40 percent, they might get my attention; not before.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 13:13
John Disney__A ( A transparent ploy..) ID#24135:
Salty ..

Some guys will do ANYTHING to sell
insurance..

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 13:08
aurator () ID#250121:
-
Crusty

as to Y2K I am sure that different countries will be effected differently, depending on the computer-age of the relative infrastructures.

Hereabouts I am most concerned about the systems in our Hydroelectric power stations. Many were built between '50 and '70. But my concern is born of ignorance. Some govt depts like Social Welfare, may have computer problems, but that is an advantage, I'd have thought. Most hospitals, schools, businesses have more modern PC network, client/server systems and the effect will be minimal.

However I was slightly discomforted by the statement from the CEO ( ? ) of NZ Insurance, posted here a spin or two ago, It will be a calamity.

As for anarchy in the cities?


How could our Merkan friends tell the difference?


salty in a power-filled paradise

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 13:05
MM (Goblin went long today , talking heads, DOW round top) ID#350179:
How OPEC miscalculated
http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/9806/25/beutel_intv/

IMF, Jakarta sign new accord, call for help
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0625/i_rt_0625_36.sml

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:58
aurator (Bob Dylan's investment secrets---- Chapter 5) ID#250121:
-
J

Kool handle.
What about Real Estate you asked? That depends a little. Now, if I was holding inherited estates, I'd hang on to them, for these are held in trust emotional for future generations.The disposition of inherited estates is tantamount to intergenerational theft. But, if I was holding land encumbered by Mortgage or land I purchased some years ago showing good capital profits, I'd sell ( well I did, actually ) and watch and wait.

About time Mozel showed up again to help us with the concepts of Capital, and herds, Real Estate, Royalty and Pieces of Eight.


A hard Wayne's gonna fall



Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:57
Gollum (pop goes the weasel) ID#35571:
You guys all watching gold prices?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:56
STUDIO.R (@Lord Disney.......) ID#288369:
Contact the IMF, they may have your balls soon. ;^ ) `

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:54
John Disney__A (Gadzooks..) ID#24135:
.. pretty soon the Southern Hemisphere wont
be able to afford to buy balls ...

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:51
John Disney__A (It all evens out ..) ID#24135:
To All ..
The southern hemisphere beats the Northern
Hemisphere at all sports ..
The Northern hemisphere gets even with
the exchange rate.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:49
STUDIO.R (@EBrother............) ID#288369:
Muchas Garcias ( cabo spelling ) por su informacion del gran Bandito, el Teddo. Tengo el numero.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:47
John Disney__A (Leaky cricket bats ..) ID#24135:
To All
1. Forced to agree with Leakey Gum Boots on 2YK. God ..
I hate to have to do THAT. From what Ive heard 2yk
is the most overdone item in a long time.

2. S&P is closing in on target of 1180/1200

3. Rand has hit 5.6 .. that was my target for
Buy Back from dollar.

4. Cyclist is on the money.

For Haggis .. sorry am aussie for Rugby, Yank for
tennis, South African for cricket .. Were there any
Scots on that England that was just demolished by
10 wickets

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:46
aurator (Down Periscope) ID#250121:
ALL
APPOLOGGIES for my 12:31, I thought this was a PM discussion site, looks like I surfaced in a Code Crunchers Retirement Home by mistake. all is Y2K

Now, where is that pesky Navigator? Let's look for the Transit of Venus. Perhaps we can discover a New Land ( again ) .


Tip of the hat to Charles Fort


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:37
MoReGoLd (@Y2K - LBJ) ID#348286:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
PLLLLEEAASSEE learn the distiction between Network People ( Client Server Applications ) which are relatively new and hence less loaded with
date problems, AND, MAINFRAME applications ( Legacy etc. ) which use huge databases, VSAM files, sequential, DB2 CICS etc., which are all loaded with 2-digit years and the logic that accompanies it.
Some programs are 15000 lines of logic code!
I personally know many people who are struggling with such systems and
the problem is there and it's REAL.
Almost ALL large companies have, or are exposed to data form these systems.
If you want to believe what this dude told you then thats your choice, but
do not cloud the facts for other people.......

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:36
Prometheus (@Check out the front page of the Beijing) ID#210235:
newspaper. At least somebody thinks Bill Clinton is a hero!

http://www.washtimes.com/index.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:35
J (Y2K - Non Technicals) ID#174239:
Copyright © 1998 J/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I used to be a programmer and agree that as a technical problem I doubt it wil be that big a deal. Software is always buggy. People usually find workarounds and wait for the next version to fix the bug. With all the Y2K attention, these bugs will get fixed much faster than normal bugs.

Thats probably the technical reality. As politicains are well aware, public perceptions are often more important than realities. If the majority of the population worry that the 1's and 0's in thier bank accounts are going to disapear, there may be a good old fashioned run on the banks. Even though I'm not to worried about the banks computers, I do worry that if I don't pull my cash out before everyone else does, I won't be able to access it at all for a while.

The market depends on people having faith that the companies they invest in will make profits and grow. If everyone looses thier cofidence that companies will survive Y2K, they may want to cash out while they still can.

It's sort of a self fullfilling prophecy. If no one knew about Y2K the damage would probably be barely measurable. But with enough hype the damage may be very serious, even if Y2K was just a hoax.

My personal strategy is to load up on physical PMs now. Wait for the Y2K hysteria to make them more valuable. Sell them as close to the peak as I can guess it in 2000+, and buy all the cheap post-crash stock I can with the PM profits. After that I think technilogical advances will continue to improve PM production, making them a poor long term investment compared to most other types.

What about real estate?


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:35
Gollum (@Bill2j ) ID#35571:
If the US/BOJ decide to continue intervening in support of the yen to give the Japanese time to do their restructuring and adjustments, the POG
could easily make 340 by fall....

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:34
kiwi (LGB ...it's just a small bug, right?) ID#194311:
Copyright © 1998 kiwi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
in fact most modern day programmers wouldn't know where to start looking. If your guy hasn't programmed in assembly code ( or machine code ) he doesn't have a clue what the problems might be.
All higher level languages Fortran, C, Pascal, Cobol codes will probably be fixed no problem as you say....but the real problem is the machine operating systems code that is running the CPU's. It will be a lottery as to which of these will push an extra bit into a critical register an crash the whole system regardless of what higher level language is being solved.
This low level problem is in the basement, where pipes and wires are in a nasty tangle....let me tell you never go there...I did and it sent me round the bend...but made me wealthy.
I have programmed at the lowest level for safety shutdown systems on oil/gas rigs, refineries, power stations and nuclear reprocessing. There is no way that the electronic safety shutdown systems on all PLC ( programmable logic controllers ) can be guaranteed Y@K compliant. Go ahead phone up Modicon, Allen-Bradley, Honeywell, or others and ask if pre-1995 PLC's are Y2K guaranteed......I can tell you the answer, also.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:31
aurator (Rugby, Gambling and Gold...can life get any better?) ID#250121:
Haggis 08:23

You gonna give me a slice of that action? I say S Africa to win.

Wager 1 Silver Peace Dollar or 1/2 0z 9999 Au kiwi. What say you, sporran man? Pity about the soccer.

BTW the Cooks are Crooks. Keep your money outa the Cook Islands.


All

Would someone post the P/Es of Microsoft and Yahoo please, ( tis for another wager )

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:30
Frustrated (BGO completes acquisition of Arian Resources...) ID#338228:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980625/bema_arian_1.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:27
Bill2j (@Steve__A) ID#259400:
Copyright © 1998 Bill2j/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
What are you looking at that leads you to see 340 gold by fall? I am having a hard time seeing any fundamental change that would lead to the price of gold running up that much. Supply/demand should be about the same. The CB's are divesting themselves of gold as time permits. No new industrial use is on the near horizon. Everyone talks about the Japanese changing the way they run their economy but I can't see that happening. They have no internal consumption economy to speak of so they live or die by the ability to export to our market. If they upset that equation they are out of business so I would expect business as usual.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:20
BillD (lbj...IF YOU WANT THE EXPERT OPINION) ID#258427:
go to this url...here are the real-experts

http://www.csis.org/html/y2ktran.html


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:19
John Disney__A (Harmony forges ahead ..) ID#24135:
To all Harmony fans..
The word on the street is that Harmony has just
acquired over 80 % of Evander .. Evander is made up
of the prior Kinross, Winkelhaak, Bracken, and Leslie
Mines. Evander has about 11 million oz of reserves
and over 30 million oz of resources. I think this will
give Harmony about 30 % more resources than Barrick.
And people still buy ABX... amazing .. I dont even
buy Harmony .. at least not until I can get it at
$3.25.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:18
Gollum (@LGB ) ID#35571:
Yup.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:14
Prometheus (@oh yea, the short form) ID#210235:
In short the IMF agreement says, cause we were so completely wrong about our previous agreement's affect on your country, and you're now a basket case, there is no possibility except to give you more money. We'll go get it for you ( and our 10 million dollar cut, and our fees, of course ) . Of course, you'll probably need more soon, because we're assuming everything will magically reverse itself for no apparent reason in a few months.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:09
Prometheus (@Here's the text of the new IMF/Indonesia agreement.) ID#210235:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980625/indonesia__12.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:07
LGB (Y2K.....An expert's opinion from the Silicon Valley) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Just spent two weeks on jury duty, and many hours of waiting time discussing Y2K with an expert who runs his own network consulting biz ( quite sucessfully ) .

This Network consultant, has worked with dozens of complanies in the SIlicon valley, of all types and sizes, including financial institutions. Without going into great detail on what he said, ( Much of which I admit I didn't understand ) .....his bottom line is that ;

* Y2K will create some problems, but it is WAY overhyped already as to magnitude, most companies have become compliant already or are close enough that he has no doubt they will be by Y2K.

* Only some large legacy apps. which havn't been replaced recently and are administered by large beaurocracies ( such as IRS ) may not be fully compliant in time, but the problems associated with this will be fairly minor, and will not result in loss of data, but instead, difficulties in processing data.

This guy also stated ( quite honestly ) that Y2K consultants, such as himself, are overstating and overhyping the magnitude of the problem in order to puff up their own importance, and profit from same.

When I told the guy about the Gloom and Doom, depression and end of the economic world scenarios offered here on Kitco, relative to Y2K, the guy couldn't stop laughing!


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:07
STUDIO.R (@ERLE....................your prayers...............) ID#288369:
We have clouds today..........an amazing sight! Keep up the good work. ;^ ) ~

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 12:00
Argent (gagnrad) ID#255217:
I was too young to be in WWII, but a few years ago, I met a fellow somewhere, I can't remember now, who claimed he had been with Mcauliffe at Bastone. I was quite impressed but he treated the whole affair as though it was a routine engagement and didn't make a big deal
out of it. I think he said he had been a sergeant in Mcauliffe's outfit.

God bless him and all those like him. We need more people of that caliber in our country today.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 11:43
24K (Meditator/Gold's Subtle effects?) ID#264289:
About a week ago, Meditator, you posted an article about Dr.Tony Nader receiving double his weight in gold. It was mentioned that gold had some subtle effects on one's physiology. Do you have any other information about this? I also have some other questions for you that are not pertinent to this group and I would like to discuss these in private e-mail. I can be reached at: unifield@cnnet.com

Thank you.

JGD

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 11:42
jonesy (Next US/Japanese Intervention) ID#251166:
-
I think the indicators to look for for another dollar/yen intervention will comprise a combination of the yen in the 140-150 range and the Nikkei below 15000, the second factor being the most immediately important. Japanese banks count their stock holdings as a portion of their reserves. The Nikkei below 15M knocks Japanese reserves below international trade requirements, et al.

Another intervention means another rise in POG. Temporarily. Until the dollar tanks, nobody's gonna give much look at gold.

Until the dollar tanks, nobody's gonna give much look at the shennanigans of that consummate political animal, Bill C.

More smoke and mirrors on the horizon.

IMHO


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 11:37
2BR02B? (CNBC vs. CNN viewership) ID#266105:

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980622/television_2.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 11:35
Steve__A (@steve in TO) ID#288244:
Appreciated your insights 6/24 @ 19:22

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 11:31
Trinovant (derivatives = evasive dirt (anag.)) ID#358318:


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 11:26
Gollum (@EJ) ID#35571:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Each dollar put into the equities now is like another flake of snow settling upon the mountain peaks. Eventually as the economy slows the unemployment figures will begin to rise, ever so slightly. Out of all those TV kids putting their savings for retirement into the equities markets some will have to make some unplanned for withdrawals. Each withdrawal is another small ball of fluff rolling down the slope....

Even if they never see the clouds or the fins or hear the splashing and grinding, the system itself will tkae care of things. It's a positive feedback system. Euphoria feeds on euphoria and fear feeds on fear.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 11:23
Steve__A (@cyclist) ID#288244:
Let's chat...I think you're a little pessimistic. More than likely, I see a move to 340 by fall.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 11:21
Avalon (Speed; thanks for posting. ) ID#254269:
@ EJ ; what's an iceburg ?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 11:19
chas (tolerant1 re slob) ID#342315:
I think it's a futile search, but can't blame you for trying, Charlie

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 11:12
tolerant1 (Pockets loaded with gold coins...off to town to pull magic out of children's ears) ID#373284:
and still in search of anyone who actually LIKES the Coward Erect...I have yet to find one person on the Island that is Long that likes the slob.


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 11:06
Speed (Avalon - WSJ story on Indonesian Derivatives) ID#28861:
-
Hidden Loans, Derivatives Raise Cost of Indonesian Bank Bailout

By S. KARENE WITCHER

Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL



Shareholders of several shaky Indonesian financial institutions are in for a shock: their banks are in even worse shape than they look. International accountants called in by the Indonesian Bank Restructuring Agency, or IBRA, to examine a clutch of troubled banks have turned up large amounts of so-called loan repurchase agreements, commonly known as repos. At some banks, they have also uncovered big bets on derivative products including exotic, high-risk roller coaster type foreign-exchange contracts.All told, the net effect of such hidden loan and derivative transactions, which are typically kept off a bank's balance sheet, is that the tab for bailing out Indonesia's banking system is going to be higher than previously thought. Early estimates by banking analysts put the cost of recapitalizing Indonesia's banking system at more than US$20 billion, but the country's deteriorating economy and damage caused by May's riots have made that figure obsolete.The final condition of [the banks] is worse than what might be obvious from the declared balance sheet, says a person who participated in the bank review. Like other people involved, he declined to be named, citing confidentiality agreements. He added that the kinds of transactions he saw raises the question of just how big is the cumulative hole in the banking system. Is it US$20 billion, or US$30 billion, or US$50 billion, or US$70 billion? he wonders. I don't know of anyone in the government, or the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund or the private sector who has a real good handle on how far, how deep it goes, and what the final number will be.What's more, the examiners say that the potential bank rescues could pose a dilemma for IBRA, which was created at the behest of the IMF to resuscitate Indonesia's financial system. That's because the government agency is likely to be torn between trying to protect the integrity of the banking system, and footing the bill for what may prove to be bogus transactions.PT Bank Tiara Asia was among the first banks to be taken over by IBRA, and is in the first batch of banks on which due diligence has been completed. The others are PT Bank Danamon Indonesia, PT Bank Umum Nasional, PT Bank Dagang Nasional Indonesia, PT Modern Bank, and PT PDFCI.Suriyanti Lauan, Bank Tiara's general manager for financial controls, says her bank plans to call an extraordinary meeting of shareholders on June 26 to give them a peek at the due diligence findings. The other banks are expected soon to hold similar shareholder briefings. Officials at the other banks either declined to comment, or weren't available for comment. Officials at IBRA couldn't be reached for comment.It's all very well having these reports; now [IBRA] has got to figure out what to do next, says Martin Brown, a Sydney-based partner in charge of credit-risk management at international accounting firm Coopers & Lybrand who participated in the due diligence reviews. Mr. Brown declines to discuss specifics, but says he was part of a team of more than 40 Coopers & Lybrand operatives who spent about three weeks in Jakarta examining Bank Danamon, a large bank.IBRA's options include liquidating a bank by paying off depositors, and selling assets such as loans. Alternatively, IBRA could recapitalize a bank by injecting sufficient capital to get it back on its feet, and sell it to new owners. Or, IBRA could opt to take the bad loans out of several troubled banks, then merge the healthy parts into a new bank, and sell that entity.Patrick Vath, a director of KPMG-Barents, a firm that specializes in financial systems in emerging markets and is working for IBRA, says that these due diligence reviews are an essential first step in determining the extent of the trouble so that a proper resolution can be developed. KPMG-Barents advised Mexico on its financial system in the wake of the 1995 peso crisis, and has done similar work in Bulgaria and Poland. Mr. Vath also declines to discuss specific cases but says he has had a team of around 40 people doing due diligence work for IBRA. Several people who have combed the books of various banks say they have been struck by the sheer scale of some of the transactions, particularly high-octane multicurrency derivative instruments typically maturing in five years or less, and large amounts of loan repurchase agreements. Indeed, an examiner who scrutinized one of the smaller Indonesian banks said he was favorably impressed with the quality of management, the bank's meticulous record-keeping, and the credit-worthiness of its borrowers. But he was struck by the size of the bank's derivative holdings, which have been its downfall. They were very complicated instruments, he says. I'm sure they didn't know what they had. Being familiar with the practices of Indonesian banks, says the bank examiner, I expected to see some crazy things and I saw them. But at another bank he saw credits to individual borrowers that exceeded the legal lending limit set by Indonesian regulators of 20% of a bank's capital that were so far over the limit it's unbelievable. The repurchase agreements, denominated in various currencies, are an even thornier problem for IBRA. Typically, banks use such agreements to raise cash. For instance, say Bank A needs a quick cash fix. It agrees to sell a loan with a face value of US$10 million to Bank B for US$9.8 million in cash. But as part of the transaction, Bank A agrees to buy the loan back in say, 30 days time, for US$10 million, giving Bank B a profit for its trouble. However, in some guises, this type of transaction can be used to hide bad loans from a regulator's prying eyes, or cover up questionable transactions made to parties with ties to the bank, including its owners. For IBRA, the repurchase agreements pose a two-fold problem: outstanding repos mean a drain on cash-flow at the troubled bank when they have to be bought back, and the repurchased loan may be uncollectable from the original borrower. So, potentially, IBRA could find that it honors a transaction to preserve the integrity of the banking system, only to discover that the transaction was bogus. These are tangles that in some cases will involve lawyers, says one person advising the government. With the list of banks headed for IBRA's umbrella growing, people familiar with the situation say the picture could get worse. Prior experience in Indonesia [suggests] we'll find similar creative accounting and, shall we say, diverse interpretations of Bank Indonesia's rules, says a veteran reviewer. The question is a matter of degree, he adds. Looking at one or two or three of these banks is the beginning of it.



--Jay Solomon contributed to this article


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:59
EJ (Gollum: knocking the DOW down a bit....) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Whew! That was close one. Looks like you got it just in time.

As relentlessly bullish as these TV kids of the DOW Titanic are, the icy Atlantic still looks scary from 9000 feet and getting higher and staying there will be tough. Through a pair of binoculars, you can see a big Y2K iceburg far off in the distance. Except no one brought any binoculars. From the portholes of the lower decks you can see sharks in the water, except no one's looking out the portholes. In your cabin at night you can hear bearings grinding and water rushing, sounds you can't quite recall hearing before, but maybe you just missed it over the beautiful orchestra playing on deck. Whatever. If it's anything, time will tell. In the mean time, full speed ahead!
-EJ

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:58
MM (Japan Times: Domestic News - Liquidation Likely) ID#350179:
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/news6-98/news.html#story2

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:53
Cyclist (Bill2j) ID#26467:
FWIW Two scenarios are developing
a: we hit the 256 area in the the July 30 area ,we will stay
below the 300 area for the rest of the year.
b:we successfuly test 276 area in July,we have the start
of a bull market in gold.
November 10 will be higher than July 30.
All time low for goldstocks still to come third week Feb '99.
Have a good day.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:49
gagnrad (markets and old battles) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Today's market quotes from a couple of sources ,Stockmaster and CBS, I like CBS 'cause you can directly link with several areas of interest but stockmaster is concise.
http://www.stockmaster.com/wc/form/P1?template=sm/navindexes
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/marketdata.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

For all you Mcauliffe ( the hero of Bastogne ) fans sitting there in the darkness waitng for the next assault by the shorts with sharpened pencils but not much else:
http://www.army.mil/cmh-pg/7-8_CONT.HTM

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:42
Avalon (Clinton cartoon in WSJ; Page A22 has article titled Needed; A China Policy and) ID#254269:
there is a cartoon of Bubba and the Chinese Premier walking away from the viewer. They have their arms around each other and the Chinese Premier has a missile he could stick in WJC's back at any minute.
Haven't read the article yet; cartoon got my attention.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:35
Avalon (Derivatives; Just picked up my WSJ to take a quick look and there is small) ID#254269:
lead on Page 1 re hidden loan and derivatives Deals at troubled Indonesian Banks. Full story is on Page A17. Important story if anyone can post it electronically.p

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:33
Gollum (@EJ) ID#35571:
Ha ha. The year 2000 is untold ages away so far as the equity markets are concerned right now. There is beginning to be a little more awareness of it, but not much.

Let's say you get an earnings report that says your company had to pay an unanticipated $5million because of the Y2k problem. Today that would be bearish because the earnings are down from what you expected. In September of 1999 it would be bullish, because it means your company has dealt with the Y2K problem everyone is in fear of at that point.

Errhhh, excuse me, I have to go knock the DOW down a bit....

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:32
james2__A (peeeU) ID#252197:
Another sign of the times perhaps?

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1009.htm

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:31
Avalon (credit cards; OLD GOLD, there was a similar letter in Dera Abby column here in ) ID#254269:
our local Dallas newspaper.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:30
Bill2j (@Argent) ID#259400:
Argent, you have cleared up my confusion with your cogent, inciteful reasoning as to why gold will go up. So far yours is the most logical reason I can see for the price of gold to go up.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:25
MM (dow 9000) ID#350179:
Sheesh...

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:17
OLD GOLD (signs of the times) ID#242325:
A letter in our local newspaper pointed out something very interesting. Seems that some credit card companies are enclosing product offers from affiliated firms with credit card bills. And they automatically charge your account unless you notify them you are not interested. In other words if you just throw away the offer, they will be charging you for it on the next credit card bill. Just another example of how far the ongoing financial madness and profits uber alles mentality has gone. Forewarned is forearmed.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:16
Gollum (@EJ) ID#43185:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
In the face of globalization the markest have become highly sectorized.
Perhaps that is just a reflection of the fact that the economy has become highy sectorized. The Asian crises is bad for those who have to sell to foreign markets but good for retailer who find higeher sales of cheap foreign goods. The low oil prices are bad for oil producers and distributors but good for transportation and producers who make oil based
products such as tires ( unless they have to sell to foreign markests ) . High unemployment is good for retailers since lots of consumers have jobs, but bad for inflaition expectations and likelihood Fed will raise rates. And so forth.

Some goods and bads are long term, and some are short term. Todays TV kids have very short attention span and tend to focus on the band playing on deck but ignore the water filling the holds. And of course be virtually unaware of the dark clouds on the horizon. They'll worry about them when they get here ( after they deal with the shark fins ) .

So a news event has to be evaluated with respect to it's near and far term implications together with an estimate as to how long you plan on holding so as to decide whether the near or far term implications are the ones that will effect your plan.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:15
Bill2j (@/cyclist) ID#259400:
Cyclist, where do you see gold by the end of the year?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:10
EJ (Gollum: uncertainty the market hates; Y2K is a perfect market nightmare) ID#45173:
No clear resolution, no clear estimate of downside risk. When does the market begin to see and fear it? When corporations begin to issue negative revised earnings estimates citing Y2K repair expenses or even costs associated with Y2K impact, possibly as early as this Fall.
-EJ

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:07
Dave in CO (@HenryD, Skip) ID#229103:
HenryD, your 8:50: Very well said.

Skip: I started buying nat. res. stocks in a big way ( for me ) about 2 years ago also, so I know the feeling.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:02
Cyclist (Sell ) ID#26467:
FWIW perfect sell ABX 18 1/2 would be perfect with today's high
plus 1/8 as stop.Tightning of the spread still going on,very bearish.
Objective 256 July 30.Happy trading.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:02
cherokee__A () ID#287358:

can someone post the url for wine spectator or bmi quotes for
commodities....

thanks..

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 10:00
JTF (Silver looking good) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: Forgot I have a substantial investment in PAASF. Looks like the long term trend is up, provided that we are repeating the 1993 pattern in silver. Silver is still leading gold, and either way you look at it, commodity prices will be at a long-term low in 6 months or less. A 6-10 year cyclic minimum in commodities is coming up. So - another reason for silver to go up, irrespective of supply shortages.

Even if the general public thinks prices are not rising, the pros will notice the JOC and the CRY0 -- if trend confirmed, and act accordingly. A general summer equities rally will only add fuel to the fire.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 09:58
Gollum (@EJ) ID#43185:
Yesterday was misplaced exuberance about OPEC and celebration of Microsoft good news. We still have the gloom of declining earnigs reports to digest.

The market is a funny kind of animal. It hates uncertainty. If there is a threat of major impending war the market will decline, but once either war or peace is declared it will go up.


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 09:55
EJ (Question) ID#45173:
The stock market goes up and down on interest rate hopes and fears tied to inflation expectations. How will such an inflation-conditioned market respond when the Asian tsunami of deflation begins to wash over other sectors of the US economy in Q2 and Q3 as it did the manufacturing and high tech sectors in Q1?
-EJ

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 09:51
HopeFull (Greenspan Gold Standard) ID#402148:
Copyright © 1998 HopeFull/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Right as Wayne Angel was leaving service at the Fed, he indicated Greenspan was a gold bug and wanted to peg the dollar at $360 an ounce. Adjusted for inflation that would be about $400 now.

Pragmatically, Greenspan knows the the Euro is gonna attract attention away from the dollar. As the dollar drifts lower into Jan. 1, 1999, a sort of INTITIAL PEG well be set for the Euro vs. USD.

Rubin and Greenspan have deliberately run dollar up, so that it will slide into this EURO PEG from a higher level than the currency traders might otherwise allow. As USD drifts lower where would Greenspan like to see it at the Euro inception?

$400.


HB




Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 09:49
JTF (Steve Kaplan site good read -- Logging off for chores already!) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: Steve Kaplan is strongly bullish about gold -- cites JOC rise.

http://www.investor1.com/gmo/

To cover my bets, I just bought some FidSelRetail ( 15% of total ) , and FidSelEnergy ( 5% ) to go with my Gold equities ( 15% ) . Rest of liquid funds cash. I think we can be reasonably confident that these funds will go up faster than gold stocks -- for the next month, at least. The 'flight to US safety' continues. The China devaluation certainly won't happen while WJC is in China.

Do you remember my bullish comments about rising sunspot intensities, and rising markets, commodity prices? Well -- its happening. Gold will be going up once the upturn in commodity prices is confirmed. And -- JOC is historically more reliable than CRY0 as a predictive indicator.

All: Don't forget to watch EB and Cherokee profit from the pending US food commodities surge. We are going from an El Nino to a La Nina, although the ENSO index is still in positive territory. I would guess heat and more fires in the US this summer, with possibly a cold wave this fall. Hard to predict accurately in US, but SEAsia is very likely to become cooler soon.


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 09:49
Argent (Bill2j, your 07:57) ID#255217:
Yes,Bill, gold IS going up, and the reason is ...ugh, ......, ugh, .........ugh,...
ugh, ....................................... ! OK?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 09:46
EJ (Gollum: The market run-up yesterday was in anticipation of the good news) ID#45173:
side of today's GNP numbers and today we'll see some downward pressure from the bad news side?
-EJ

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 09:34
Gollum (@EJ ) ID#43185:
Dow very close to even today, maybe -20

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 09:25
sharefin (Cop Killing: A Meeting of Radicalism, Religion) ID#284255:
-
http://www.sltrib.com/1998/jun/06211998/utah/39732.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Y2K: Nuclear Weapons Computer System Pose Worldwide Threat
http://cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/9806/14/sm.02.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Year2000 Chronicles
http://www.computerworld.com/home/features.nsf/all/980622chron
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Y2K and City Infrastructure A Case Study of the Greater London Area
http://www.mobility-net.com/ump/issue1.htm
1/3 way down the page
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Public Service Challenges For A Year 2000 Project
http://www.year2000.com/archive/NFpublicservice.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GREENSPAN Q&A -- Part V: Millennium bug impact
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980610/greenspan__19.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Circles of Risk
http://www.year2000.com/archive/NFcirclesrisk.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 09:08
EJ (panda: good catch on Q1 numbers) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Botton line:

WALL STREET EXPECTED +5% GDP IN Q1
Q1 GDP REVISED TO +5.4% FROM +4.8%, HIGHEST SINCE Q2 1996

But, INFLATION UP ( very slightly ) .

Hey, where's Gollum. Think the DOW might go UP today or what?

This one's got me confused, tho:

Q1 BEFORE-TAX PROFITS FALL $13.5B.
Q1 CORPORATE PROFITS REVISED TO +$9.2B FROM +$4.4B EARLIER.

Seems contradictory.

-EJ

PROFITS DOWN
DEFENSE SPENDING DOWN
GOVERNMENT SPENDING DOWN
IMPORTS RISE
EXPORTS FALL
CORP SPENDING UP
PERSONAL SPENDING UP
GDP REVISIONS STEM FROM HIGHER EXPORTS, INVENTORIES
INFLATION UP ( very slightly )



Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 09:07
rube (opinion) ID#333127:
Gold will stabilize with a bailout of any other currencies, maybe go up a bit.
Until the dollar goes down in value it remains the storehouse of value. Gold goes the opposite of the currency in power.....

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 08:58
panda (More news on the numbers...) ID#30116:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/econ.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 08:54
panda (GDP NUMBERS ARE OUT!) ID#30116:
Check the 8:30 release,
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/headlines.htx?source=core/dbc

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 08:52
sharefin (Straddler - margin blowouts) ID#284255:
The margins will be blown out by posting long urls.
These can be cut in half by the poster and re-spliced together by the viewer.

Also they get blown out by repetative posting of a single letter.
ie. hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh etc.
This is what caused the latest blowout.

If all posters take care to avoid doing these two actions.

We all will have better viewing.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 08:50
HenryD (All - Regarding Skip) ID#36156:
I have just finished reading last night's discussions, and in particular the plight of our brother Skip. I was moved by the collective outpouring of support expressed by this cyber-family. It was a communal embrace of empathy and encouragement.

Last night you restored my faith and pride in being a Kitcoite. I haven't felt this way in a long, long time.

Kitco truly, truly has a Heart of GOLD!!!

HenryD ( Thank you for a GOLDen moment. )

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 08:46
G-Nutz (browsers) ID#433143:
microcrap...

use netscape..

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 08:35
geoffs (Correct---Right margin is amess) ID#432157:


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 08:35
Caper (Straddler) ID#300202:
40% of my usage on this site-I experience same utilizing I.E. v 4.01.
My problems r eliminated totally using Netscape v 4.05. Hope this helps
a little. I have Mac Performa 5260/120. BBL

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 08:33
geoffs (OFF TOPIC-tried to download IE4.01 but it said 8.00hrs-Correct-Help) ID#432157:


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 08:30
Straddler (Bart, Anyone RE: Margins Glitch) ID#280215:
This may have been addressed before, but has anyone addressed the problem I am having that the right margins of most posts are going way out to the right about a mile or two. Is this a browser problem or is this a Kitco problem? Or both? Any assistance would be appreciated!

Thanks!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 08:23
Haggis__A (John Disney......lets take a bet ?!) ID#39862:

Union........

Australia vs South Africa,
Perth, Western Australia
17 July

Do I hear..............

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 08:22
Haggis__A (John Disney......lets take a bet ?!) ID#39862:

Union........

Australia vs South Africa,
Perth, Western Australia
17 July

Do I hear..............

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 08:22
AJT__A (Y2k report fromUS senate) ID#254276:
Copyright © 1998 AJT__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The y2k problem report by the Congressional Research Service ( CRS ) dated May 5, 1998 is available from your US Senator. Titled: 97036: The Year 2000 Computer Problem: Activity in the 105th Congress. Report prepared by Richard M. Nunno, Science, Technology, and Medicine Division.

The opening SUMMARY first two and the last paragraphs read as follows:

Many computers in use today will not be able to process dates beyond the year 2000 unless they are modified, Currently many computers only store two-digit number for the year, which makes the year 2000 indistinguishable from 1900. Without correction, computer malfunctions will cause many costly problems in commerce and government.

Although some many may still doubt the seriousness of this problem, most business managers and government officials are now convinced that this is a major problem that will be difficult and time consuming to correct. Federal agencies have established year 2000 program offices, and an interagency committee has overseen several government-wide actions. State and local governments, private sector business, and foreign organizations also face the year 2000 problem for their computer systems.
... [skip 5 Para's]
For the remainder of the 105th Congress, and even into the year 2000, Congress will continue to hold hearings to raise public awareness of the problem, to oversee federal agency efforts at correcting their computer systems, and if necessary, to pass additional legislation to ensure that private sector systems are year 2000 compliant.

The report is 14 pages in length, very thorough and presents the problems associated with both hardware and software.

Recently Senator Bennett ( R-UT ) was appointed to chair the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem. One focus of the committee ( 7 in all ) will be litigation prevention. Interesting that there are an equal number of both parties on the committee.

Happy summer reading!!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 08:20
HopeFull (I wouldn't short gold here....) ID#402148:
.....Last time YEN/$ intervention came on heels of officials denying they would.

Now there is silence.

Yen bears need to close out profitable trades if going against them.

What better time to burn them than in thier quarterly, now ending, bonus.

HB

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 08:10
OLD GOLD () ID#242325:
BillD: Gold will follow the Asian currencies and markets. I see a final washout for these this summer with a strong rebound later in the year. Once POG turns, the huge spec short position will add to the upside fireworks.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 08:04
Bill2j (@Old Gold) ID#259400:
Old Gold, you are one of the most respected posters on Kitco. I agree with your short term down for XAU. Having said that, I am having difficulty seeing anything out there that would cause it to rise to 100 by year end. For that to happen one would have to have a sizable uptick in the price of gold. I see no level of shortage or increased usage to cause the price of gold to go up. What is your rationale for seeing an uptick in the XAU?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 07:57
Bill2j (@APH) ID#259400:
You are looking for a trading low 6/25-7/1. Fairly safe prediction. All you have to do is wait 30 days and another trading low in gold will come up. I have been following gold for several years now and it seems to be a one direction commodity. It only goes down. I have read where at some time in the distant past it also went up but that was long before my time. Does anyone at Kitco still believe gold will go up? If so, I would like to see a logical argument stating why.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 07:53
Paul Gold__A (DROOY) ID#21484:
Durban Deep NASDAQ, Johannesburg Stock Exchange and London Stock Exchange closing prices are updated daily and expressed in US$ at current exchange rates on http://www.drd.co.za/.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 07:48
OLD GOLD (projections) ID#242325:
The short-term ouitlok does look bad for gold and the yen, but I still see this is the final washout. XAU 50-55 in July, but pushing 100 by year-end. Dow 9500 this summer, but 7000-7500 by fall.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 07:47
RLM (Y2K ) ID#412350:
Copyright © 1998 RLM/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Following courtesy of TOURBUS@LISTSERV.AOL.COM

A report by UK-based Corporation 2000 forecasts the new millennium

will throw New York City into chaos, severely disrupting power

supplies, schools, hospitals, transport and the finance sector. The

study predicts that on January 1, 2000, electrical supply will be

only 50% available for 10 days. Wall Street will be closed for eight

days, hospital service will be emergency-only for a full month, and

serious problems will cripple telephone, transportation and postal

services.

Visit these sites for additional info on the Year 2000 issue:

http://www.garynorth.com - Gary North

http://millennia-bcs.com/nfcass.htm - The Cassandra Project

http://www.y2kchaos.com/survival/s35p121.htm - Understand Y2K in 5 Steps

http://www.y2kwatch.com - The Y2K Watch


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 07:46
Donald (Orders for British exports lowest since 1983) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980625/dollar_wan_1.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 07:44
geoffs (People-We will never understand the Japanese mind see below -GOD) ID#432157:

But the meeting approved, as recommended, retirement payments for directors who resigned in connection with the racketeer scandal.Mitisbushie

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 07:37
arby (Ticked off) ID#72316:
Sorry to belabour this point, however whenever one of us can't pay our debts they come and take everything away, when they can't pay their debts they still come and take our stuff away. There is an obvious concerted effort to lend vast amounts to unworthy size borrowers and then transfer the debt to the back of the workers and their offspring..

there, I don't know if I feel any better yet. :- )

rb

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 07:33
Junior (Euro vs USD If Size Matters Market Share & Circulation Potential) ID#248180:
http://www.ft.com/specials98/q261e.htm

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 07:29
arby (GRAB) ID#72316:
Copyright © 1998 arby/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
apanese officials insist that it would be politically foolhardy for the
government to act before then, but that plans are secretly being drawn up
for unpopular measures such as using vast amounts of taxpayer funds to
relieve Japanese banks of hundreds of billions of dollars in loans that are not
being repaid. Japan plans to set up a government-funded institution to buy
bad loans from banks and dispose of the property that was used as
collateral.


such as using vast amounts of taxpayer funds to
relieve Japanese banks of hundreds of billions of dollars in loans that are not
being repaid.


This is the punch line...

rb



Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 07:21
arby (CRISIS) ID#72316:
Note how this word is used a lot when the taxpayers money is grabbed...

http://www.iht.com/IHT/TODAY/MON/FIN/yen.html


same in Mexico, S&l robbery and on...

The elite see all this dough in Japan's accounts and they want it while it's still there..

rb

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 07:19
OLD GOLD (THE ACTION) ID#242325:
GOLD FLAT THIS MORNING DESPITE SHARP DROP IN DOLLAR INDEX. VERY BAD ACTION ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT. LOOKS LIKE MORE DOWNSIDE FIREWORKS COMING UP SHORTLY.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 07:08
Donald (Critics say Mexican Bank bailout benefits only wealthiest Mexican families) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980624/mexico_ban_1.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 07:08
Hedgehog (more than enough tears, angels beneath the veils) ID#39857:
Copyright © 1998 Hedgehog/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
ISRAELI SOLDIERS KILLED IN DAWN
ATTACK
Thursday 25 June, 1998 ( 4:29pm AEST )






Lebanese security officials say two Israeli soldiers were killed and four
wounded in a dawn attack by pro-Iranian Hezbollah fighters near the
border in southern Lebanon.

Earlier Hezbollah announced it had carried out a series of attacks on an
Israeli position in the so-called security zone occupied by Israel.
It said the attack targetted an Israeli patrol in the central part of the
zone.


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 07:02
Donald (Mexico issues warning on volcano) ID#26793:
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/international/story.html?s=n/ap/980624/international/stories/mexico_volcano_1.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 06:58
Donald (Nothing will come out of Japanese plans to deal with their debt) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980624/dlr_yen_en_1.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 06:57
APH (Metals) ID#255226:
We are entering the time frame for a trading low 6/25 - 7/1. Look for a possible intra day wash out low taking July Silver down to 4.80, Aug Gold mid 280's, any purchase of Dec Silver under 4.90 should be a good one.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 06:53
Donald (IMF wants Mexico to raise value added tax to 20% ) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980624/imf_direct_1.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 06:51
Fred(@Vienna)__A () ID#185448:
Copyright © 1998 Fred(@Vienna)__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
slingshot
You say:
MJPL tells me to say that at start of Volker admin ( 77 ) , currency in circulation was $99 billion, at end ( 87 ) it was $204 billion. This is called inflation.

77-87 surely was an inflationary period. But a rise in money circulating per se is not yet to be called inflation. As a definition its a period with rising aggregated price-indices ( like the GNP-deflator ) . A rise in money supply alone is a nominal thing, getting interesting when you take prices and Q into account.

IMHO inflation is reality in the stock-markets. The thingy you buy, is an expectation of future payments. The price for those payments increased sharply over the last years. - Asset inflation.




Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 06:41
Donald (OPEC looking for more than 19 bucks a barrel.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980625/oil_opec_1_1.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 06:37
Donald (@Sling Shot) ID#26793:
And just how do the Chinese recommend that the Japanese situation be brought under control? China will devalue; count on it.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 06:32
Donald (Hong Kong retail sales fall 16%; sixth straight drop.) ID#26793:
http://www.iht.com:80/IHT/TODAY/WED/FIN/uk.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 06:19
Haggis__A (Squirrel) ID#39862:
..........independant free state populated by the freemen of Kitco in noo zilundd?.......

Why not the Cook Islands

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 06:17
Donald (Russian Forex and gold reserves still falling.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980625/russia_res_1.html

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 05:58
jims (All's quiet on the European front) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gold up 45 cents in London, silver up two cents. Dollar :: yen just under 141.

No reason form much interest, I guess.

What happen to RP and Platinum

What happened to AHP and his call for a seasonal low tomorrow in silver. His short term trades in gold and metal have been right on. His stop to buy on gold was above last Friday's highs for gold if I remember. some technical computer trading systems turn neutral and/or positive above 301. Same systems would reverse from short to long silver at $5.51. Those prices are at the close.

I guess, right now, we are worried how far this stuff will fall as a result of yen weakness which the world expects.

Come back to us APH and RJ

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 04:15
John Disney__A (Bum Visions) ID#24135:
For Bloomer..
You said you saw bottoms .. Thats because I mooned
you.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 03:45
sharefin (Prudent Paranoia) ID#284255:
-
http://www.itpolicy.gsa.gov/mks/yr2000/paper29fp.htm
From an interesting Y2k site - lots of great papers.
http://www.itpolicy.gsa.gov/mks/yr2000/papers.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Year2000 New Zealand
http://www.year2000.co.nz/
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
More interesting sites:
http://www.comlinks.com/
http://2000.jbaworld.com/index.asp

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:33
Rack (Blooper and ALL) ID#411163:
China will devalue, they are bleeding big time. If the Asian area problems were just a passing thing they might try hold the PEG but this thing has legs! The fact that they have not yet devalued tells me they
have some reason/reward coming for all their suffering. Now if I could figure out what/why I could make some money on it. Someone is trying to delay this deflation, buying ?the USA? time?
I hate these rubix cube economic things

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:30
HighRise (C-SPAN) ID#401460:


Congressional Hearing

CIA Director and Lt. Gen Air Force of NSA on
C-SPAN Year 2 K problems WOW! A real scary situation, Banks and other Country's security systems ...warning systems may go crazy.

Will not be ready by Yr 2K!

Nuclear concern is at the top

Shortage of people to take care of problem and they are concerned about terrorists. Worried about security with all the foreigners working on all systems.

HighRise

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:29
blooper (Jimmy Carter Sling Shot) ID#207145:
Must've been James Earl Carter Who saved us Sling. You got it, M1, M2,M3, ha.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:26
SlingShot (you guys are fun) ID#105111:
but I have to go post a few Z's.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:21
blooper (Slick Willie Jefferson Nazi SS, who can't salute,) ID#207145:
What a wicked web we weave, when attempting to decieve

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:20
downunder__A (bloopa-real deeeeep is right!) ID#27341:
GM

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:19
SlingShot (blooper) ID#105111:
MJPL tells me to say that at start of Volker admin ( 77 ) , currency in circulation was $99 billion, at end ( 87 ) it was $204 billion. This is called inflation. ( source is Barron's ) . MJPL will have more to say after his electrons commence to flow again, probably tomorrow night.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:18
Dave in CO (@SlingShot) ID#229103:
I heard a rumor that Karlito was the president of the Bardstown Ladies ( investment ) Club. He/she reportedly left under a cloud because of creative accounting practices ( as will many corporate executives and fund managers in the near future ) . But I have to admit that the Rubin rumor is more logical.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:15
blooper (downunder,) ID#207145:
You could be right. Clinton really couldn't deal that, as survival of China would be at stake. Willy is getting in real deep.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:13
farfel (@SLINGSHOT...once you become PM of Japan...) ID#340302:
...there will be amazing changes in your life.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:13
cherokee__A (@..do.the.math.for'96......) ID#287358:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee__A All rights reserved

here is another......what do you see grass-hopper

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha81.gif

the almighty bean.....too much rain in the upper-midwest...
gol-darned ( who would-a guessed ) smokin heat wave in the south
with record breaking heat....

woooooo..woooooooo..wooooooo.....counductor won't you let that whistle blow.....the eagles.....

eb...where you..be?....gumblio..

beans in the teens.....1000k in '98.......chop-asaki.


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:11
SlingShot (farfel) ID#105111:
I like your theory about Hashimoto, I really do. How come nobody ever offers me women in return for my cooperation? Sometimes I feel really left out.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:10
blooper (Slingshot,) ID#207145:
Bullshit.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:10
downunder__A (SligShot,bloopa-china wants in to the WTO and much more,what would be the deal with willy) ID#27341:
GM

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:09
SlingShot (blooper) ID#105111:
MJPL just called me. He was prepared to refute your praises of Volker with numbers galore ( he tracks M1, M2, M3 .... from now back to Moses ) but a thunderstorm knocked him off line and he's running on flashlight at the moment. He asked me to send his apologies.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:06
farfel (@SLINGSHOT...rumors abound that Karlito was really...) ID#340302:
Treasury Secretary Rubin.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:06
blooper (Cherokee,) ID#207145:
Am in deep; energy, oil drillers. Relief rally due? Draw downs after July 4th...........?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:04
SlingShot (hey everybody) ID#105111:
whatever happened to Karlito ( Carlito ) , whatever the spelling was. Was his/her true identity ever revealed?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:03
farfel (@SLINGSHOT...my own pet theory....) ID#340302:
...as to why Japan is not acting in its own best self-interest?

I figure someone must fly Hashimoto into Vegas regularly, comp him a penthouse, a huge stack of chips, and set him up with a room full of knock-out, insatiable blond All-American hookers.

Keep the man satisfied and he'll NEVER rock the boat.

Tanks.

F*

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:01
blooper (Down Under,) ID#207145:
They're an exporting country pegged to the dollar.That makes them uncompetitive at a bad time.I don't believe it. They will do the deed if things get much worse.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 02:00
SlingShot (china has already threatened to devalue, unless ) ID#105111:
the japanese situation is brought under control. China can't afford to be the only strong currency in Asia.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:59
farfel (@SWP1...and naturally, my compliments to you...) ID#340302:
...keep up the good work.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:59
cherokee__A (@.....cirrus-city...amongst.the.cloud.people......) ID#287358:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee__A All rights reserved

had a hankering to swing the bat of life lately scared you might hit a home-run here is the opportunity of a life-time....1 contract in '96, when it broke out of the channel, pyramided conservatively, would have generated 200k+...

the plate is always there...the players waiting.....SWOOSH....

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha63.gif

the options i suggested to kitcoites are paying off big....wait for the limit moves after SOL finishes cooking ALL the grains.....this heat wave was predicted here 3 months ago.....who got on-board......watch this next winter......the coldest ever....heating oil options will make SOME-ONE a lot of money.....i'll be there with my tickets.....ALLABOARD...

mr chop-asaki is buying crude calls, ho calls, bean oil calls, corn and bean futures......fixing to add more gold calls next week.....have been ignoring them in favor of the 'smokin' grains....and they have not even
gotten out of bed......yet.

who has a url for futures open--high--close--

cherokee!; ) ...flying-in-phoenix.....really.awesome.powerful.place..oommmm

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:56
downunder__A (Blooper- china will not devalue, unless the games stuffed) ID#27341:
GM

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:55
farfel (@MJPL...I agree with you, sir...) ID#340302:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...in terms of your describing the ruling political elite running things in their own financial interests...

Obviously, this has been the Japanese problem...

However, do not get too down on Japan...

It is certainly an American problem as well...

After all, do you not think the ruling American political elite is ( deceptively under the guise of pure free markets ) running things in their own financial interests?

Oct. 97...active government intervention to prevent the markets from seeking their natural downward equilibrium point? A 24 hour rebound thus creating the impression in American investors' minds that the US gov't will NEVER let them lose any significant monies in the markets? A stock market bubble growing just as big as the Japanese Eighties' equivalent?

Rubin and his Goldman Sachs buddies.... recent yen intervention in the markets ( provoking a 200 point drop thus wiping out all the call options players ) the day before June options expiry date? After promises of no such intervention?

I wonder how big Rubin's mansion will be once he retires from gov't?

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:53
blooper (China Devaluation) ID#207145:
Will come when our market shi+s. Then Asia will be a buy and hold for 2-4 years.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:49
blooper (Asian debacle.........when to invest?) ID#207145:
One more leg, China devalues. Am I correct. H E L P

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:47
tolerant1 (MJPL, Namaste' well deserved and my dogs would not let S. Donaldson get any) ID#373284:
where near ya...they have standards, my dogs, do don't ya know...

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:46
farfel (@HAGGIS...you follow the COMEX inventories...) ID#340302:
...there seems to be a lot of back and forth action occurring over the past month with reserves going in and out.

More activity than normal.

What do you think is happening?

Who is taking delivery?

I bet you know, yes?

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:45
MJPL (farfel) ID#153111:
Copyright © 1998 MJPL/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Your right as far as the game now played seems to be by American Rules, but you missed my point, my point is that when government, any government takes the controls of the markets to influence the economy of the nation they command, little problems are allowed to fester into big problems.

I didn't say it out right but any government that manages a economy will ultimately run the economy for the benefit of the political ruling class, and that means they will not accept market discipline. Without market discipline you finally get a block of downtown Tokyo valued more that the Island of Manhattan and a stock market with a P/E ratio greater than the IQ of Albert Einstein.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:44
SWP1 (Re: F* at 21:30) ID#233199:

farfel ( I would like to say something good today about gold... ) ID#340302:
...but it's grim, real grim out there.

Thanks.

F*

Well it that's not a contray indicator this isn't Kitco!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:43
tolerant1 (A.Goose, Namaste' Gulp to ya...SlingShot..the asian basin is now empty) ID#373284:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
and we end up in a bay of pork scenario don't we with a weak American President ( respect to BillinOregon there ) on the Chinese payroll... Too much has been given up...much too much...Korea is ready, Indo, Pak, India and the list goes on...China has a 200million man standing army of robots...do you think the scumbag of square-T cares about one human life, this global crap you have been hearing about? Not...

The leader of China is a murderer...do not be too white, nor Christian to miss the fact that this is a pragmatic, sterile, clinical scumbag you are dealing with...perhaps you are sitting on the porch petting your dog...this clown would just as soon eat your dog, your friend...as have a cup of tea...

War you ask...I ain't digging any fox-holes pal I am just telling you what I smell coming...today is as good as any to die for a man with a clean conscience...and I have just been to the dry-cleaners...it is always the others I think so very deeply about...

sorry..................John Lee Hooker and the dark makes me yammer like this................meant every word...surely I did and do............

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:43
blooper (Sling Shot,) ID#207145:
He also slew the gold monster. Lets kick his ass.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:41
farfel (@HAGGIS...come back and elucidate further...) ID#340302:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...what gold deal did Australia make with Soros? You have any further info?

Also, your thoughts on why Switzerland talks down gold every time it begins to rise? Is Switzerland covertly aiding American government purchases? Or is it just that Switzerland no longer owns the requisite gold reserves necessary to back the Franc so it must hide the missing gold by declaring its effective sale in '99?

The mainstream argument is that Switzerland wants to avoid an excessively strong Franc, thus it desires a weak gold price. Yet, given that, over the past century, the Swiss Franc has been the SECOND de facto reserve currency in the world, then a weak Franc would not seem to be desirable.

Give us your thoughts.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:41
blooper (Reagan, through Volker Slew the inflation monster,) ID#207145:
Setting the stage for 17 years of decreasing intrest rates.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:39
bright () ID#207240:
Someone must be keeping all the markets nice and tidy, why slick Willy is out of town. Couldn't look any better if you just posted the numbers up yourself.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:38
SlingShot (MJPL) ID#105111:
Warning! I have detected praise of Volker on the Kitco site! Sick 'em!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:37
blooper (Sling Shot.) ID#207145:
Reagans fed. reserve chairman, Paul Volker wrung all inflation out of the system, causing a gut wrenching recession in 82. ( srart of boom ) . He and he alone is responsible for these 16 years of prosperity.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:37
SlingShot (farfel) ID#105111:
Copyright © 1998 SlingShot/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Some cool thoughts there. Agreed that there are a NUMBER of things Japan could do to change their situation, besides the obvious ( to myself and MJPL ) one of allowing Darwin to do his thing with the more egregious failures in Japan's banking system.

But .... I have to ask, why has Japan been such a complete idiot in its fiscal policy lately? These other actions you cite might work, but where is the leadership to attempt them? They don't have the leadership to attempth the obvious solutions, so I don't expect anything on the not-so-obvious front, either. But they were neat ideas.

Sometimes, when Japan acts in ways that seem really bad for Japan, but also seem to be doing the US some good, I wonder if there were some secret clauses to the treaty signed on the Missouri way back then.



Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:33
MJPL (tolerent 1) ID#153111:
Thanks for the pat on the back for the Iron Oxide Curtain it just came on me. I noticed that that entry got the copy write on it. Does that mean Bart will give me royalites when Sam Donaldson quotes me on it?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:33
blooper (Sling Shot,) ID#207145:
Perot talked about balancing the budget. It caught on, but watching returns from South Dakota, Kansas, etc, Irealized Republican strongholds were going Clinton. I knew Perot was to blame. He also looked and talked silly.Good ideas, but unelectable. Bush did nothing except sign demo tax bill ( read my lips ) . then they blamed it on him. Preppy dumbass.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:32
SWP1 (@ F* Thank you ) ID#233199:
Not jsut your screen de plume ( which brings back fond memories ) but sometimes before it snaps shut that mouth of yours says some good stuff...

....keep it up

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:30
MJPL (SlingShot) ID#153111:
Copyright © 1998 MJPL/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I can't listen to Klinton, seriously I just can't he makes me ill. So if he gave away millions of people to a despotism, well it would not surprise me. Klinton know neither right from wrong. He is capable of being cheerful Josef Stalin. Uncle Joe always said one death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic. What he did to Billy Dale with the Travelgate scandal shows just how callous he can be. He tried to destroy a hard working man with the full fury of the FBI just so the press would think he was a good guy when he replaced the travel office staff to buddies of his. That the FBI allowed itself to be used like that is chilling!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:29
EB (want to change your name) ID#187109:
I did.......
http://www.fadetoblack.com/farrakhan/namekahn.htm
away.....to the real deal
Saleem

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:28
EB (Copper BITES.....(so much for the pennant).....(ugh)....) ID#187109:
ALL metals BITE!
away...to the real gold......grains and softs


go BEANS!!!!!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:27
blooper (Sometimes we get paranoid,) ID#207145:
However it is important to realize that this world has been here a long time, and will probably be here for a while longer. We however are finite, SO EAT DRINK AND MATE MARY, hell, life ain't so bad.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:23
SlingShot (blooper @ perot) ID#105111:
Copyright © 1998 SlingShot/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
What a wonderful time we all had with that guy in 92! He wasn't as much fun in 96, not sure why.

People told me in 92 that if enough people voted for Perot, Clinton would win ( which seems to be true ) and that the economy would tank ( not true yet ) .

I wonder what the lead time is for political action and its effect on the economy? Is the boom now due to the policies of Reagan ( and maybe Bush ) and 6 years from now we get to pay for Clinton?

Where the hell is the boom in the US economy coming from? I can identify no policy that accounts for it. Joe sixpack tells me he loves Klinton because he brought us prosperity, but when I ask what administration policies accomplished this wonderful result, they cannot identify them. Heinlein said that there is nothing a government can do to an economy that doesn't act like positive feedback, which, if you will kindly remember your class in control theory, results in wild oscillations. Perhaps that's all we're seeing.


Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:19
farfel (@MJPL...categorical statement that is simply NOT true...) ID#340302:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You say: Their is no way out but liquidation and starting the Japanese economy out on a clean balance sheet with new management. People can be so selfish, to make the Japanese people suffer for so long over a matter of pride!

F* says: That's only true if Japan plays by the American Rules of the Game...rules that are leading to the country's destruction.

Yet, Japan has many other wild cards it can play:

1 ) It can declare economic war by disturbing the status quo and selling off US treasuries and US dollars en masse. At the same time, raising interest rates to stop capital outflow and forgiving bank debt. Japan might even consider adopting gold currency as a form of exchange instead of US bucks as a means of freeing itself from US hegemony.

2 ) It can ally itself with the ASEAN nations and create a new currency standard, also allowing Japan freedom from US dollar hegemony.

3 ) It can arrive at a socio-politico accomodation/ alliance with China, thereby terminating its dependence upon American military might. Without such dependence, Japan can finally collect on its American debts. Japan's dependency ( real or imagined ) upon American military muscle is probably the sole reason Japan has NOT disturbed the economic status quo.

In other words, there are radical approaches that may leave Japan certainly no worse off than they are ( and are becoming ) .

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:18
blooper (Treasuries dear to Japan, China,) ID#207145:
Where else they gonna get a return? Stupid to sell unless intrest rates are rising in USA. Which would cause a loss. This is a possibility, otherwise wall Street will go straight up ( with lower and lower rates ) .
Lower and lower yield on bonds.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:17
A.Goose (What has been going on in the copper market and what does it mean ...) ID#256255:
Copyright © 1998 A.Goose/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I haven't been popsting lately for two reasons;

1. There hasn't been alot to say
2. I started working again to feed my gold habit

Today's Silver warehouse

TOTAL REGISTERED
-11,232 -20,056 35,522,499
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
0 20,056 52,053,680
COMBINED TOTAL
-11,232 0 87,576,179




Today's gold warehouse

TOTAL REGISTERED
831,765 0 11,793 -11,793 0 819,972
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
191,158 0 0 0 0 191,158
COMBINED TOTAL
1,022,923 0 11,793 -11,793 0 1,011,130

Today's copper warehouse

Total 67,068 0 1,223 -1,223 65,845


*******

April 24

silver

TOTAL REGISTERED
-20,298 60,639 33,539,231
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
0 -60,639 55,244,805
COMBINED TOTAL
-20,298 0 88,784,036


gold

TOTAL REGISTERED
475,204 0 0 0 0 475,204
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
169,237 0 0 0 0 169,237
COMBINED TOTAL
644,441 0 0 0 0 644,441


copper warehouse stocks

Total 109,288 151 288 -137 109,151

Date: Tue Mar 10 1998 18:54
Realistic ( COMEX DATA ) ID#410194:
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Fell 32 troy ounces to 478,974

Silver: Rose 192,885 troy ounces to 90,990,192

Copper: Fell 336 short tonnes to 116,599


*****

I think the really interesting trend has been in copper. 116,599 short tons in March now 65,845 short tons. LBMA has been having a similiar trend. All the while copper prices have been falling.

What does this trend tell us. Well, maybe just maybe, it is daying that someone ( or many ) is moving out of currencies into key commodities. Copper is normally looked as a leading indicator for a booming economy - this time it may the leading indicator for a world currency crisis.
*****

New York-April 15-FWN--A HUGE DRAWDOWN IN LONDON METAL
Exchange ( LME ) warehouse stocks and tightness in the
market have pushed high-grade copper futures sharply higher
in early trade today.
One trader here said there had been market nervousness
about the recent rises in prices, then came news today of a
drawdown of 8,525 metric tons ( MT ) in LME warehouse
inventories. This has prompted short covering, mainly by
dealers and banks but probably funds as well, he said.
The May contract earlier traded as high as 85.80 cents,
which was a gain of 4 cents from Tuesday's final level and
its loftiest level since 86 cents back on Dec. 1.
The New York market opened sharply higher on the back
of a big jump in three-months metal in London, which has
traded as high as $1,876. Three-months copper is currently
up $56.50 at $1,858.50.
Sources noted copper prices had been moving up over the
past week, as a series of drawdowns was reported in LME
stocks even before today's massive fall. Today's 8,525-
metric-ton draw left total inventories at 315,050 MT.
There were good drawdowns in Europe and Singapore, said
Martin Squires, head of research at Rudolf Wolff.



London June 24-FWN--COPPER PRICES KEPT WITHIN THEIR
recent trading range in thin London Metal Exchange ( LME )
dealings this morning.
Traders said a lack of fresh developments on the
fundamental front left little to influence the market, where
attention remains focused on the Japanese currency.
The yen's fresh slide this morning was negative for
copper, but the impact was limited as it came back up on
talk of central bank intervention, said one dealer.
In latest LME trading, three-month copper--so far
confined to a very narrow $16 range--was changing hands at
$1657.50 per metric ton, down $10 on Tuesday's final
level.
With the technical indicators holding steady, Rudolf
Wolff said in its metals report that it expect copper to
continue trading within its current $1,640 to 1,690 range.
Look to establish a long position on a confirmed
breach of range resistance at $1,693--the 30-day moving
average, the report noted. Such a breach would target
$1,720 and then $1,735.
Today's LME stock figures, meanwhile, showed copper
inventories down by a further 750 tons to 250,400.
A total of 1,350 tons was delivered into warehouses and
2,100 withdrawn.
In late New York trade Tuesday, high grade copper
futures finished the day with a loss, but prices remain in
their recent ranges.


********

It seems to me that something this way cometh - and it doesn't look good.

High USdollar is in more danger than ever, a meltdown is very likely IMHO. But then again I had to go back to work to support my gold habit, hopefully my stock options will buy me a TON of gold....

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:16
SlingShot (tolerant1, old buddy ...) ID#105111:
this talk of war .... where is this coming from? Did I miss some nasty new today?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:14
downunder__A (the hang seng is porforming nicelly for clinton!) ID#27341:
GM

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:11
SlingShot (MJPL) ID#105111:
Did you hear the Chief Molester talk today? Been told by others on the sight that our prez today gave away Taiwan and Tibet. Seems to me that this could only further the impression that Klinton is the paid toady of China, though I remember Buckler predicting months ago that we would have no choice but to give up Taiwan since China holds a really big pile of US treasury debt that, if unloaded, could bring the US economy down.

Whattaya got to say on that?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:10
blooper (Tolerentl,) ID#207145:
If it wasn't for Perot, I don't think attention would've been focused. Nothing would have been done at all. Clinton wanted to Tax and Spend don't ya know. Are you from Wisconcin?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:10
tolerant1 (slingshot, Namaste' the financial debt is of the least concern my friend. I be not an) ID#373284:
alarmist...however...I say this...there will be war...everything can be replaced but not a human being...no...no...no...a house, a flower, a book, but never a human being....

This then is my worry...AND I do NOT like, nor enjoy this type of worry.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:06
blooper (Japan has more money, less debt than US,) ID#207145:
Japan is just at the bottom, and we're at the top..Actually they are in a better position than we in the long run. Short term they suck.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:03
tolerant1 (MJPL, Namaste' Gulp to YA! Grand Reserva don't ya know...) ID#373284:
Iron Oxide Curtain...nice touch...nice touch...

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:03
SlingShot (blooper) ID#105111:
Copyright © 1998 SlingShot/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I wanted him to keep his promises re balanced budgets. Politicians buy their constituents votes on the backs of our children and I repudiate every politician involved. I know he had help from the congress and that in fact congress gets most of the blame since the Constitution gives them 99% of the authority over the national purse strings, but Reagan should have raised a bigger stink than he did. I give him full credit for the accomplishments you listed. Like I said, he did better than I expected. But I will not forgive any modern politician, especially one with the influence Reagan had, for leaving my children with this monstrous debt. It was and is a crime.




Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 01:00
MJPL (The big picture) ID#153111:
Copyright © 1998 MJPL/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Well I thought I would join in the conversation tonight, looks like some good things being discussed here.

I see some stuff on the Japanese situation, you know how Japan is the worlds largest creditor nation. That's true alright, but then I saw something about BRE-X and a thought occurred to me, for the most part, all paper pretty much comes from the same place: trees. The really good paper is made from cotton. BRE-X paper was bad not because it came from sweepings from a saw mills floor but because the people who backed it were dishonest and not fully out coming with all of the facts. Question: just whose paper are the Japanese holding? Are the Japanese and the world only looking at the fine bond quality of the paper and beautifully engraved printing of this paper, or should they be looking at the institution backing these bonds? Does Japan really have much in the way of reserves?

For myself I don't trust any government paper, especially governments that insist on one accounting standard for private industry and another one for themselves. As far as the Japanese situation is concern it is a lost cause. Typically when the government gets involved in any market, at some point becomes a issue of national honor that problems get swept under the rug.

It would have been better for Japan if the government stayed small and uninvolved. It would then have been able to oversee the liquidation of the bubble that popped in 89 and the Japanese economy would have now been in its 4th or 5th year of recovery. As it is a full 10 years later, the incredibly over valued real estate and other bank assets as still in the same hands of the same incompetent banker, as these same bankers await their benefactors in the Ministry of Finance to find a way out for them. Their is no way out but liquidation and starting the Japanese economy out on a clean balance sheet with new management. People can be so selfish, to make the Japanese people suffer for so long over a matter of pride!

I keep reading the problem with the Russian economy is that the government can't collect its taxes. Bahh Humbug! This is something that would be in favor for the Russian economy! The truth is, is the real government can and is collecting all the tax they want and then some: the Russian Mafia. Boris Yeltson is a buffoon, to think that many of the movers and shakers in government and finance are waiting for Boris Yeltson to fix Russia's problems when he can just get some more money is indicative of what problems we have over on our side of the Iron Oxide Curtain.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 00:59
tolerant1 (blooper,) ID#373284:
NAMASTE' GULP of RESERVA to YA! One more for GOOD measure...GULP! Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 00:59
blooper (Women love Clinton,) ID#207145:
That alone should prove they are the weaker sex. Also dumber sex. One caveot; this does not apply to sensible women, just vagina-heads.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 00:52
blooper (Tolerantl') ID#207145:
Do not apoligize; I feel the same way you do.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 00:50
blooper (Sling Shot) ID#207145:
When Reagan went to China, he met with 75 dissidents, much to the chegrin of commies. He told Gorbachev tear down this wall, and got everything he wanted for the USA. He along with the Pope, and Lech Walensa DEFEATED COMMUNISM. The were scared of him, so were democrats. What more do you want?

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 00:45
tolerant1 (blooper, Namaste' I understand your comment...I still say William Jefferson) ID#373284:
Clinton is a dirtbag and a traitor...do not confuse disgust with anger...
What goes around will most certainly come around...

Listening to John Lee Hooker right now...sitting in the dark...

I mean no disrespect to you and yours...NONE...some STUFF just gnaws at my guts that's all...A HUGE Island that is Long GULP of RESERVA to YA!!!

Most welcome in my HOME anytime...



Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 00:44
SlingShot (bloooper re we got the prez we deserve) ID#105111:
Copyright © 1998 SlingShot/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Damn straight! I've voted libertarian every election but one since I turned 18. The only vote I regret is the but one. Would have been glad to vote for Barry Goldwater or Harry Truman but I never got the chance.

It's been a long time since either party put up a candidate I could respect. Though I have to admit that Reagan turned out better than I expected, he was still less than I thought the country needed.

What's up with this country? When we needed help fighting for our freedom, France was there for us. Maybe they were less than perfect allies the next two centuries, but still we owe the generation that helped us a great deal, even if their descendants are undeserving. How, with this in our history, can we turn our backs on the people of Tibet and Taiwan who want only to be allowed to run their own affairs? I don't want to go to war necessarily, but can't we at least say that China coveting the land of these erstwhile free people is wrong?

I agree that Clinton is the president we deserve, but he behaviour today demonstrates why we should be ashamed of that.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 00:29
blooper (If we can agree that gold kinda sux right now,) ID#207145:
That is the best contrary indicator of all. Too bad we're almost broke.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 00:24
Squirrel (OOPS- BARTS BARS are in GRAMS) ID#287186:
So his smallest bar is US$16.37 now - for one gram.
http:///gold.sellbar.html
Reckon it could be denominated at US$20.
And since I like round numbers and a higher POG
The rest could be $100, $200, $400, $1000, $2000, and $10,000
OH SCREW THE US DOLLAR OR ANY CURRENCY!
Let's have the new Gold money denominated in GGs ( Grams Gold )
and Small Change in GSs - ( Grams Silver )
Maybe somebody can think of a sexier name.
Me- I'm hitting the rack.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 00:23
Spud Master (@Schippi) ID#288235:
Old boy, trusting Fidelity gold funds is not wise; these boyz have a vested interest in PAPER .... having a gold fund look good is anathema to them & most of the other big mutuals...

... must gut feeling is that they let them languish with no attention at best, and at worst ... The Plunge Acceleration Team.

Spud

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 00:21
blooper (john Dissy,) ID#207145:
Where are you little johnny Dissy. Sorry I shot down your toy Mig. It was an inferrior toy.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 00:17
blooper (Tolerantl,) ID#207145:
Chill. We elected this bastard to 2 terms. America asked for Clinton. We got what we deserved. Bob Dole is not my idea of a president either. Elizabeth is a better candidate. Bush was a creep also. I'm a Reagan republican. Clinton is America's choice. We are in deep sh*t.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 00:15
Schippi (Fidelity Select Gold Chart) ID#93199:
Copyright © 1998 Schippi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Fidelity Select Energy & Energy Service Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/enens70.htm

Fidelity Select Computers, Electronics & Software Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/ces70.htm

This FSAGX close is BELOW January's Low!
My yacht has shrunk to a row boat.
Soon I will be high & dry with just oars!

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 00:12
SlingShot (gollum) ID#105111:
I've been searching for a record of how much US debt Japan is holding. The number I get is about 200 billion $US, but that number is a few months old. Interest on that at 5% is about 1 billion $US ( per month ) . But their capital flight is about 20 billion $US per month. In other words, I don't think their US debt holdings are big enough to make a difference.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 00:07
Squirrel (Is there no hope out there? Except BART & AURATOR) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mtn Goat - in your Wed Jun 24 1998 17:37 you express hope that Joe Sixpack will start buying if enough of an alarm is sounded. BUT THERE AIN'T ENOUGH GOLD that Joe Sixpack can buy to make a difference in the monetization of Gold. All the old and new Gold coins together are not enough. MAYBE BART CAN SELL A BILLION BARS to the Joe Sixpacks - he has 'em in a nice series of denominations 1 gr, 5grs, 10grs, 20grs, 50grs, 100grs, and 500grs. If Gold ever gets back over $400/oz we could trade these bars at $1 per grain.

BART & AURATOR ARE OUR LAST HOPE - For there ain't enough Gold coins ( see my Tue Jun 23 1998 22:49 ) . Somebody should start minting billions of them real soon - in a nice denomination series like BART'S BARS.

AURATOR had a few posts in the last few days where he said the following: The more I think about it, the more logical it is to form and independant free state populated by the freemen of Kitco in noo zilundd? No country on earth will manage to invade noo zilund. The Maori know that, and so do the pakeha. The NZ Reserve Bank hold less gold than aurator I am thinking of issuing my own currency
GO FOR IT AURATOR!!!!!
YOU AND BART CAN SAVE THE WORLD!
WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM YOUR KITCO FRIENDS
WHO WILL MARKET YOUR COINS TO EVERY JOE AND JANE SIXPACK THEY SEE.

P.S. I figured the new day crowd should have a crack at this post too.

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 00:05
tolerant1 (I am going to go for a walk...there will be many dead Americans...but before I get) ID#373284:
tears for them I shall think of the Taiwanese we sold out...watch, learn, it is YOUR world people and this Coward is selling your children's dreams to murdering bastards...

NO MATTER WHERE YOU LIVE THE ACTIONS OF THIS BASTARD WILL IMPACT YOU AND YOUR LIFE FOR THE NEXT TEN YEARS...EASY...

Date: Thu Jun 25 1998 00:04
Squirrel (Clone: re civic life - been there tried that) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I've run for a city council & county commissioner - lost both.
Tried to get various committees and boards to work on our problems - got outvoted by all the others to my one. Others have had similar experiences. The best qualified are refusing to step into the fray.
The apathy and sense of futility is pretty pervasive.
Even down at the school board level. We finally elected a school board member that started getting the rest of the school board's attention. Trouble is that the paid off friends and relatives of the school board are likely to succeed at a recall - and I think they will. If they succeed it will be a clear message that no one else had better try cleaning the closet of old skeletons.
So why bother?
Because I do not want to go to war!

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