KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:56
Winston__A (Excerpt from Y2K Novel) ID#244446:
Copyright © 1998 Winston__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved


May 11, 1999: Market Panic!



This is an excerpt from Jason Kelly’s novel, Y2K — It’s Already Too Late. To purchase the entire story, visit our order page.

http://www.y2kbook.com/Excerpts/excerpts.html



 May 11, 1999



Bank withdrawals reach their highest level in decades. Story at 11:00, said the news trailer.



All eyes glued on the television that night as heads across the country reported that withdrawals had increased by five percent in the past week. Five percent is a minor fluctuation for the banking system, but the media saw big news.



Some speculate that America is not taking chances with possible Year 2000 bank failures, reported news anchor Jane Roman in Los Angeles. An April 26 news release from prominent Year 2000 repair firm Solvang Solutions sparked widespread concern with the computer date problem. Worries have led many to literally take their money into their own hands. Lidia Aceves reports.



Lidia stood in front of the Glendale Wells Fargo building with a man in his thirties. Ryan Crabtree doesn't like taking chances with his money. Today he decided that he would rather have cash in hand than numbers in a computer. Ryan, what do you find most frightening about banks today?



She held the microphone to Ryan's mouth. Most of all I'm just thinking about my family. I don't want to leave my money somewhere I can't get it. Banks haven't figured out their computers, so I'm keeping my money until they do.



Were you afraid that if you waited there wouldn't be any money left?



Hell yes. It's all over the news. My grandparents told me about the Great Depression and I've been reading about it in the papers lately. If it happened back then it could happen today. I'm not going to get my family's dinner from a trash dumpster.



Why today? Why did you decide on this day to withdraw your money from Wells Fargo?



Because I was driving to work and I heard on the radio that people were lining up at the ATMs before the lobbies opened. One guy said he could only withdraw 300 dollars a day from the machine, so he got in line for a teller. I exited the freeway and saw a line at Bank of America and I said to myself, 'that's it. I'm getting my money.' So I came over here and got it.



Was there a long line?



Not a long one. But people were upset. There were a lot of old people in line and they stood very still with bank statements under their arms.



Similar news stories broke in towns everywhere. People heard 'banks,' saw lines, and jumped to conclusions. Small lines became big and big lines became huge. Within days, the number of withdrawals went from thousands to hundreds of thousands.



The five percent jump had occurred on a Tuesday. By Friday, more than two-million accounts had closed. Banks in Boston, Chicago, New York, Miami, and San Francisco put velvet ropes outside their doors to direct lines in orderly fashion. Muggings skyrocketed as burglars learned about the herd of people leaving banks with cash in hand. Police stationed themselves at major banks.



The FDIC received its first call on Friday from River Bend Bank in Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Bank President John Atkins said he'd reached his marginal limit and needed assistance. By the end of the day, Atkins was joined by 210 other small banks in the same predicament. Lines formed at 5:00 AM Saturday morning.



The FDIC could not immediately meet demand. It rationed its resources to banks the same way banks rationed resources to depositors.



The cycle quickened. People showed up at banks, the banks couldn't redeem their account values, word spread that banks were out of money, more people panicked to get their money, the banks requested help from the FDIC, the FDIC reached its limits, word spread further that banks had busted, and even more people wanted their money.



Sunday papers and weekend news broadcasts followed the crumbling bank scenario mercilessly.



Unable to get their money out of banks, hordes of investors began selling their stocks and mutual funds on Monday morning. There were more individual investors in 1999 than ever before in U.S. history. While they had proven to be resilient during market downturns such as the October 27, 1997 drop of 554 points on the Dow, they didn't behave so calmly in the face of losing their bank accounts.



 






Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:52
Selby (Another mine out of production) ID#286230:
Copyright © 1998 Selby/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Bitter legacy haunts northern Canadian mining town

YELLOWKNIFE, Northwest Territories ( Reuters ) - The residents of Yellowknife, a
sparsely-populated frontier town in the Canadian Arctic, are worried that a five-week strike at a
local gold mine will open scars left by one of the bloodiest labor disputes in Canadian history.
Frustration has set in on the picket lines outside the Con gold mine where 180 members of
the United Steelworkers of America local 802 have been on strike since May 14.
Six years ago, a similar strike at the nearby Giant gold touched off violence which led to the
deaths of nine miners and deep divisions in this once tightly-knit community of 18,000.
Miramar Mining Corp. , the owner of the Con mine, has hinted that it may close the high-cost
property if striking workers did not accept a cut to wages or benefits.
The Con mine produces gold at a cost of $330 an ounce, well above the average in
Canada's gold sector and higher than the lowly $295.60 an ounce currently fetched by gold
on the open market.
If gold stays at these levels and we can't find a way to improve our cost structure, it is
unlikely that the mine will reopen, said Miramar spokesman Brian Labadie.
The union has steadfastly rejected any thought of a rollback, and both sides now appear
braced for a long, idle summer.
The company is ignoring us. They just don't want to talk and I think we could be out here all
summer, said Tony Murphy, an electrician and one of several picketers outside the mine.
Murphy and his fellow strikers receive C$100 a week strike pay, a pittance in Yellowknife
where the cost of living is significantly higher than in most parts of Canada.
Vancouver-based Miramar, however, appears well insulated from the hardship of a
prolonged halt in production.
The company recently had hedged, or forward sold, about 105,000 ounces of gold at an
average price of about $441 an ounce, making it cheaper for the company to meet its
deliveries by buying gold on the open market than producing it.
Hedging occurs when a company takes a buy or sell position in a futures market opposite to
a position held in the cash market, minimizing the risk of financial loss when the price of the
commodity suddenly changes.
Despite the logjam in negotiations, Miramar said it had not considered using replacement
workers to reopen the mine.
It was the use of replacement workers during a 1992 strike at the nearby Giant mine that
triggered a summer of violent labor unrest between members of the Canadian Association of
Smelter & Allied Workers, an independent trade union, and replacement workers hired by
mine owner Royal Oak Mines Inc. .
Tensions between the two sides quickly engulfed the town. Vicious beatings were promised
and sometimes delivered in the streets and playgrounds that fateful summer.
Yellowknife Mayor David Lovell, a city alderman in charge of public safety in 1992, painfully
remembered the strike as an awful period in the town's history.
The guts were torn out of the town. You had fights in the schoolyards and in the streets and
you didn't dare break up a fight because you might be getting into something big, Lovell told
Reuters.
The violence reached a climax in September, 1992, when nine replacement workers, all of
whom had crossed the picket lines, were killed by a bomb blast after their mining car hit a
portion of booby-trapped rail inside the mine.
A former miner on strike at the time confessed to planting the bomb and was convicted in
1995 of second-degree murder.
The community has been licking its wounds ever since.
Although the use of replacement workers is legal in the Northwest Territories, one of two
federally chartered territories in the Canadian north, they have not been used since the Giant
mine explosion.
Lovell said he strongly opposed the use of replacement workers because they unsettle the
situation.
He is confident Miramar will not resort to using them.
Miramar will not do that. They are an adult company and more mature than Giant was.
( $1-$1.47 Canadian )

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:51
Prometheus (@gagnrad) ID#222235:
Yes, I don't mess with folks who keep 10' snakes.

Nope. Even if they look cute and fuzzy.


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:51
ERLE (Steve in TO_) ID#190411:
I don't know what to make of the talk of enormous naked silver short positions.
Iv'e got some Ag stock, and some physical.
If it goes up I suppose I'll notice.

I'm expecting a good spike in NGC, as I think that ROR cannot avoid the capitalist temptation. I will guess that he's in for 20,000 shares.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:50
Jack (Posterings and wishings) ID#252127:
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Many great societies have failed, look at the ancient Greeks and Romans an unsinkable ships go down.
Those who promote the paperclad theory of power and infailability obtain their power from the sweat of the the masses who receive paper promises or the obligation to pay the debt on these paper promises.

I just love supporting a government who encourages an industry that relocate so as to effect the livelyhood of its own citizens, in the name of Globalism. Who; when difficulties effect those greedy bastards, the government uses the sweat of the citizens screwed to to rescue them.
The crap will hit the fan and those responsible for the promblems created will along with all of us pay.
I feel that you believe in gold but have lost confidence in the peoples ability to set things straight.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:49
gagnrad (Prometheus, that's the snake's room, not the wife's. Wife wouldn't like to sit on a safe all day!) ID#43460:
Argent, no intrusion. ( %-^} )

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:49
tolerant1 (Iran is about to fall) ID#373284:
Bart Simpson is everywhere!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:43
gagnrad (Prometheus, thats 10' not 10) ID#43460:
And like I said, my wife won't let me have a Democrat ( particularly not the cute, fuzzy type ) in the house so I have to make do with the python. If I ever decide to have a home safe instead of using the bank safe deposit drawer I'm going to put it in the middle of her room.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:38
HighRise (They had been discussing Socialism on Kitco) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

6/22/98 -- 9:54 PM

Police: Man shot by friend trying to knock beer can off head.

ARJAY, Ky. ( AP ) - When Larry Slusher asked his best friend to shoot a beer can off the top of his head, police say the friend obliged - but missed.

Slusher, 47, was in critical condition Monday at the University of Tennessee Hospital in Knoxville with a gunshot wound to the head. His lifelong friend, Silas Caldwell, 47, was charged with felony assault and is being held in jail.

``The one that got shot put the beer can up on the top of his head and told his buddy to shoot it off. He missed the can and hit his head,'' said Bell County Sheriff Harold Harbin. ``I don't think there were any arguments or anything because they were the best of friends.''

Following the Sunday night shooting, Caldwell fled the scene and hid from police for about three hours before being apprehended, Harbin said.

``He was scared to death,'' Harbin said. ``He gave us his gun and didn't give us any trouble. He was just drinking and acting like a fool I guess.''

I Guess,

HighRise

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:36
Argent (gagnrad) ID#255217:
This topic has come up before and I agree with you. While pure ( 24K ) gold looks and feels good, it is not nearly so durable as the lower karat alloys. So if you anticipate ever actually using gold coins as a medium of exchange, it might be wiser to use the 22K or 21.6K coins. I have both. And I love the appearance of the 9999 maple leaf, but I would have some eagles ( fractionals ) on hand for spending money. Sorry for the intrusion.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:30
fiveliter (Silverbaron - Hoppe post) ID#341312:
Copyright © 1998 fiveliter/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thanks from me also for that Hoppe post. Guy was pretty astute about many things. I don't think confiscation is going to be that much of a threat, though. It depends on high degree of voluntary compliance and trust in government and there's not much of either around today in mainstream Americans, much less libertarian-leaning goldbugs! They'd have to resort to force with SWAT teams and all that Rambo sh*t and before you knew it you'd have Ruby Ridge 2, 3, 4, and then all those militia guys would just be chafing at the bit for a piece of the Feds...not too much like the early '30's. It'd be kinda funny seeing the media spin doctors trying to justify shootings and raids to get gold and silver when they've been selling it to Joe Sixpack as a war on drugs. One day he's watching COPS and they bust up a place on a drug raid and he's sitting back getting drunk cheering them on as usual and the next day they're raiding jewelers and ordinary people's homes looking for coins and he says Coins! What happened to the drugs? Huh? What's going on here? My mom's got some silverware and my wife wears gold jewelry! Then he sits back in his Barcalounger, pops the tab on another Bud and starts thinking:
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
And another libertarian is born.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:30
tolerant1 (Prometheus, Namaste' And I thank you for the link...) ID#373284:
A Tequila GULP to ya!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:29
Prometheus (@Hey!) ID#222235:
I keep getting my headings cut off. Don't know what is triggering it.

Anyway, Gagnrad who used to be known as 223, both of which are hard as hell to remember . . .

10 was a typo. You who hangs out with 10' snakes meant I to say.

Is it a young python, BTW?

I like to view the little one at the local store. The rest of the post was OK.


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:25
tolerant1 (gagnrad, Namaste' HmmmmmmmmmmmmmmMy best answer would be to give) ID#373284:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Russ Savage a call at Jefferson Coin-800-593-2585 or 504-837-3033 or you can mail him at RSavage@jeffinc.com I make this suggestion as I do not know where to guide you in order to make a purchase, nor do I have any idea what the cost might or should be. Russ on the other hand knows his stuff and might be willing to hunt down a coin ( s ) for you. As I have said before Russ is a great guy, I trust him, hell, he sends me Mumm Mardi Gras King Cakes for goodness sakes. Which I barely get a bite of when they arrive I might add!!!

Try Russ...tell him the barbarian on the Island that is Long told you to give him a ring...

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:25
Prometheus (@What! 10) ID#222235:
hee hee hee hee

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:24
Prometheus (@gagnrad) ID#222235:
Anyone who hangs out with 10 snakes and welcomes dialogue with ROR is OK with me.

Let me know if you're ever in San Francisco Bay area. Don't bring the snake.


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:20
oris (Miro and ROR) ID#238422:
ROR, Miro is right. Theory looks just about perfect,
the only problem that it does not work as planned. You
are lucky to deal with theory, not practice. At the end
you just hate both theory and practice...

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:20
Selby (Old Gold Re your 17:57) ID#286230:
I know very litle about the details but I agree that something to lower the US$ will have to happen or the rest of the world will be buying very little from the US. It will be very hard to borrow US$ --regardless of what some think of that idea.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:16
oris (TYoung) ID#238422:
Copyright © 1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Brother Tom,

What I see is similar to preparation of coktail - shaking
of numerous things together, with some tasting of mixture
in the process to find the right taste...Bartender seems to
be not sure what taste is the best...All we got to do
now is to watch this market together. Just relax for a week
or two, how about shooting some clays this week? I got ammo...

Your brother Oris.

P.S. Closed V&P lab, now trying to open W&C lab. Do you know
what W&C means? Think long and hard, it's what French food
stores are famous for...


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:14
Prometheus (@A gulp at ya, Tolerant1) ID#222235:
Judy Shelton works at Stanford University's Hoover Institute.

Here' their address. Don't know if it will reveal the article you seek.

http://www.hoover.org/

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:14
tolerant1 (Mole, Namaste') ID#373284:
A GIANT GULP of tequila to Ya!!! Thanks MUCH!!!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:13
gagnrad (Radical question for this forum.) ID#43460:
Tolerant1 would you happen to know where to obtain any 1908 Austrian gold 100 corona ( Francis Joseph 60th anniversary ) coins? IMHO this coin showing the Rudolph Marschall bas relief of the goddess 'Fame' is the most artistic female figure in modern coinage. If I could buy one European coin this would be the one!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:13
kapex (It's just ammaaaazzzzing the spin control that the media puts forth ) ID#218214:
for that that that that well you know!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:12
Mole (@Tolerant1) ID#34883:
http://www.intellectualcapital.com/

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:08
tolerant1 (Does anyone know where to find Judy Sheldon or Shelton?) ID#373284:
Someone posted an article by her in the past couple of days I cannot find it...TIA

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:07
Prometheus (@Yessir) ID#222235:
the trash Monica team is up and running and spewing in advance of whatever she reveals.

I really enjoyed the article read earlier today. If she was such a stalker, the Secret Service should have been all over her!

Alas, BC will prevail. The folks trying to pin him down are still playing by Cricket rules.


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:04
gagnrad (Hoiste on me own petard!) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Jack, you've caught me! You must remember that I have absolutely no expertise in anything related to money. But to answer your question ( like most folks who know nothing I have a wide array of opinions ) I think that if the USG minted a $500 coin it would either be before the fact to try to stabalize the rising POG at $500 ( which it would do only until Gresham's law sucked all the coins out of circulation ) or it would be after the fact when POG is actually much higher. Using today's POG and face value of Eagles ( +/- $300 and $50 respectively ) , that would mean POG of about $3000. IMHO

And for the day I think that the POG is $295 +/- because that is what it is. Tomorrow we have no idea what it will be despite all our posturings and wishings. Would have should have could be could have might have should be what if sounds odd. IMHO

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 23:03
Winston__A (@Robnoel) ID#244446:
It will be simple to stop y2k bank runs. Give depositors all the money they want, but only in Susan B. Anthony dollars. Also, people who want to can tune in to your morning show at http://www.amerifree.com/, what is it from--8 to 10 Mountain Time.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:57
Grizz (Sorry Mtn Bear - I don't know how that happened!) ID#431366:
My post got posted without my handle so it started with my address to you. Some things must've fell out of my pack on the way over the pass.
All the grief the other fellers are givin' you should be to me. I can handle it. My apologies cuzzin.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:52
Jack (gangrad) ID#252127:

Squirrel is off on the possiblity ( or hope ) that the US will mint 3 billion ounces of gold coin when we only have a reported 262 million ounces total.
But how the hell do you come up with $500 gold being the end of it all. Do you mean the $500 is to high or that it's not enough? What is youropinion of the right price for gold and why?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:51
Grizz (reify - you may have me confused with Mtn Bear) ID#431366:
'Twas my grocer you and I are referring to. I do not put my faith in little pieces of paper. I am only saying that most everyone else does. And since Gold has been driven out of our money, it makes using it to buy groceries pretty darn tough - on both grocers and grocery buyers.
I agree with the idea that we should have Gold coins - though the gov't looks on the idea as squirrely ;-}

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:50
EJ (Silverbaron: thx for Deja-vu, or prophecy Mon Jun 22 1998 13:14) ID#45173:
An excellent post.
-EJ

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:50
kapex (Prometheus It's not as hard as you think to get away with it when he has all the willing accomplices) ID#218214:
in the media. print and telegarbage.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:47
TYoung (AGoose....am I reading the eligible stocks right?) ID#317193:
Silver...52,033,624. Gold...174,646.

Tom

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:45
Prometheus (@Hi guys, just a thought. . .) ID#222235:
Copyright © 1998 Prometheus/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Remember when Clinton went to Africa?

He ducked some really damaging press stuff.

I remember over and over thinking that the timing was all planned . .

Well, the rumours are out that Clinton's smear boys are planning to portray Monica as a virtually obsessed stalker. And the leak of the recently divulged tapes ( which are alleged to be stolen and can't be verified ) are setting her up in a massive new PR action by Clinton's PR folks. This should be really intense, and, of course, BC won't be available during any of it. They've already got the full damage control to her deal with Starr in place.

Sometimes you've just got to hand it to the guy. He really understood Machiavelli.


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:45
kapex (Steven jon kaplan letter today.) ID#218214:
According to CDA/Investnet, gold mining is ranked #15 for insider
accumulation among all industries as of June 22, 1998.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:38
tolerant1 (gagnrad, Namaste') ID#373284:
True, but you can buy all the Helvetias and Soverigns you want and they are not reported and are currently not conficated under IRS existing laws.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:37
sharefin (Y2k Denial thread) ID#284255:
http://www.exchange2000.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-21650
Y2k thread
http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-16203

RealAudio interview of Peter DeJaeger.
It's a few moths old but little has changed.
http://www.annonline.com/ramfiles/980311.ram

Worth a listen?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:36
gagnrad (Advice about bears) ID#43460:
The mountainmen had some sensible advice: 'Never drop your gun to hug a grizzly.' Jim Hightower.

Does this have anything to do with the gold bear?


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:35
jonboy (Guarino predictions) ID#250251:
ERLE: Couldn't agree with you more, Guarino is a total quack who hasn't got a single prediction right since the early 90's.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:29
Prometheus (@crazytimes) ID#222235:
Thank you kindly for your clarification on Chinese holdings.

It is appreciated.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:28
gagnrad (gold coins) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
squirrel: I think nitrous oxide is illegal, unless you have a dentists license too. But seriously $500 face value gold coins would mean that either the government wants to inflate the dollar to 1/500 of an ounce or worse, they've thrown in the towel for a much higher POG. And say what you want, a POG much over $500US means that western civilization is in deep doo doo.IMHO

tolerant1: I like the US fractional gold coins instead. For one thing, since the're 22k they harder and liable to hold up better in circulation than the 24k coins. For another, suspicious types who know little about gold will sometimes try to 'ring' a coin before they accept it ( I learned this many many years ago when I had to sell a couple of Maple Leafs to make the down payment on a house, the only gold coins I've ever sold ) . 24k coins have a decidedly weak ring compared to 22k ones. IMHO


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:23
Max_Moseley (@The Skeptical Investor) ID#270221:
Apologies if someone has posted about this already but it is important:Shares in Long Term Credit Bank – Japan's 10th-largest bank with
assets of %26tr ( $305bn ) collapsed as rumours abounded that it
had been one of the five crippled banks identified by Tokyo in talks
with the US Deputy Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers.
Max

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:23
Prometheus (@Erle and Earl) ID#222235:
Youz guys is driving us crazy. ( It didn't take much. )

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:23
EJ (ERLE: regarding erle ) ID#45173:
Further, neither is myself, EJ. There was some confusion on this point over the weekend. Both ERLE and erle may be more attractive and intelligent than I, but I'm pretty sure I have a faster car. And, if you think about it, isn't that what really matters?

And why the heck do all the sites that report Asia trading stall out for an hour or so every night around 10pm EST?

And who won the Stanley Cup in 1947?

And so on.

-EJ

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:21
Reify (Did I hear a growl from a real BEAR) ID#413109:
Copyright © 1998 Reify/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mountain BEAR, I just couldn't let you recent post go without a quicky
reply.
Any gold, and silver, especially coins, my not be of special value to
you at the local grocers today. But this whole site is devoted to the
analysis of the subject for the purposes of preparing for an unkown
future.
If you wish to put your faith into a government that gives you little
pieces of paper that each day buys you less & less, and central banks
that try to set the rules by which you should live, then that is your
choice. But a little look back into history and I should imagine that
gold has had a better track reckord than any pieces of paper I could
think of, including the almight US$.
I remember a coke for a nickel and a Hershey bar as well, do you?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:16
IDT (NJ: I liked the article) ID#228128:
It defined the situation, but. It seems to confer omnipotent powers to Rubin. He can't control the flow of investment capital. They may be able to make the dollar, and U.S. stocks and bonds a little more or less attractive. However, as the article points out, the treasury and fed are between a rock and a hard place.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:15
crazytimes (@ China holding US Treasuries...great chart comparing 20's and now.....MINE fiasco?) ID#342376:
Copyright © 1998 crazytimes/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Does anyone subscribe to World Money Analyst? Anyway, in their promo they talk about China having 67 billion worth of US Treasuries. Most of them bought during the last four and a half years. China is according to them, the fourth largest holder of US Treasuries. Most of them bought, according to World Money Analyst by Wang Jun, the son of China's late vice president, Wang Zhen. Wang Jun is also the chairman of Poly Group Corp. and chairman of China International Trust and Investment Corporation.
Check out this link....A very good strikingly similar chart of the Dow in the 20's and 90's. http://www.taguru.com/29crash.html
I am recovering from the news on MINE. Believe it or not, the Fat Lady hasn't started to sing yet. It does not look good but this company has dealt with problems in the past and the fact that they are still standing leads me to believe there is still gold down there. It's really the ultimate contrarion play isn't it? A gold mining company that everyone assumes is a fraud...hard to get more contrarion than that, right? Do you think I'm rationalizing?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:15
kapex (kapex (mtn bear The fact that no one wants to own gold ) ID#218214:
now..................... at the lows............................... after this much of a decline.......................... especially the Central banks................................................ down here.................................. are you catching my drift?
I tried to put the space between the comments, it just wouldn't work.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:15
Steve in TO__A (Erle- Thanks for your opinion on Guarino . . .) ID#287337:
Copyright © 1998 Steve in TO__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I get a piece of junk mail from him once a year. It seems to me he overreacts to issues. Some years back when Clinton scandals were unmentionable in the mainstream media he sent a mailing out that stated that things would come out that would shock everyone- and he was right, but he also stated that they would force Clinton out of office and trigger a massive decline in the stock markets. He obviously didn't take the time to study how Nixon was forced out of office.

Now that silver is in a seriously unbalanced supply/demand situation, he's claiming silver will skyrocket- but is quoting commodity futures market returns. The price increases have to happen, but I remain to be convinced that they will happen in a short enough time frame for futures speculators to clean up! Maybe Guarino trips up over his enthusiasm and gets ahead of the facts.

What do you think?

- Steve

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:14
Squirrel (gagnrad - what's these bottles that say N2O on 'em mean?) ID#287186:
Could I trade wiff's from 'em for GOLD?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:12
ERLE (ROR) ID#190411:
After reading Speed's post,-- Whaddya think? Is Newmont Gold for you?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:11
The Hatt (The Game Is Over And The Majority Of The Population Have No Idea!) ID#294232:
That the game is even being played! Very similar to 1929.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:09
kapex (mtn bear The fact that no one wants to own gold now at the lows after this much of a d) ID#218214:
ecline especially the Central banks down here are you catching my drift yet?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:09
ERLE (Name confusion) ID#190411:
I am ERLE. Not to be confused in any way with earl.
earl is far more intelligent and succesful than I, contrary to what he said this weekend.--Probably better looking, also.
I spell my name differently than the smart earl, and I capitalised it to try to avoid confusion.
I hope that any who read this will not be perplexed anymore.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:09
Grizz (Mtn Bear (SE) - are you any relation?) ID#431366:
Copyright © 1998 Grizz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The average feller can’t spend Gold for groceries hereabouts. He can pawn it and get some cash like some local folks have done. He might even get 80 or 85 cents on the dollar.
The gov’t says the Eagle is only worth $5 face value. I suppose my corner grocer could subscribe to the Wall Street Journal - but the mail doesn’t get here ‘till noon or so! What with Gold up one day and down the next he could lose $20 overnight on just one “$5” Eagle! He could instead have his computer giving him quotes - if the charts & graphs work. “Bout the time he needs ‘em cuz some family wants to buy $200 in groceries - they’ll let him down and he won’t know how much green change to give her.
So what good is it besides wedding rings and fancy watches?
If Gold isn’t going to be used for money - the Central Banks don’t seem to want it used that way - then it ought to drop a hundred bucks or so. Guess that makes me a BEAR. ;-}

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:09
ROR (MIRO) ID#412286:
I have many friends relatives, acquaintances and travel experiences which are the baisi for my knowledge. You as I am guessing have an ax to grind against Socialism based on your experience under a dictatorial brand. What you really lived under was slave capitalism which was called socialism for the elite at the top. Color it USA today. Rail against the trade agreements or political correctness and see if you dont come close to a gulag existance or put into the Looney camp, If you think about it as a victim of previous oppression you understand. Socialisma Venceramos!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:06
sharefin (Protect your financial assets. ) ID#284255:
-
http://www.y2knet.com
According to the top experts the Year 2,000 Crisis will change the economic landscape of the U.S. ( and the world ) for many years to come. Dr. Edward Yardini, a highly respected Wall Street Economist, sums up the Y2K Crisis best: Plan for the worst, and hope for the best.

The economic shift prompted by Y2K will catch most people by surprise despite the escalating warnings from both the public and private sector. The Chinese word for crisis has a double meaning; danger and opportunity, the primary difference is early risk management. It is imperative that long before the Y2K Crisis you protect your assets in several ways.

Consider the worst-case scenario. What if the U.S. dollar should fail? In an age of fiat ( or phony ) money ( like we've had since 1965 when the U.S. dropped all tangible backing for the dollar ) , money only has value only as long as the public keeps its faith in the government. Today's money has no intrinsic value of its own. Former Fed economist John Exter refers to all post-1965 currency as I.O.U. Nothing money. If ( or when ) the public loses faith in the government, then the value of government-issued money can plummet overnight. Digital cash--the kind stored in your checking or savings account, CD's or credit cards--could be completely worthless if the computers go down for very long.

During an extended crisis, the first form of currency that usually surfaces is barter. People begin trading with one another ad hoc for the goods and services they need. After a while, a few items become the predominant medium of exchange. In the past, these have included cigarettes, ammunition, and tangible commodities. You might want to stock some of these items; ammunition, toilet paper, Bic lighters, coffee and tea, and sugar, etc.



The economic earthquake caused by Y2K may send us into depression, followed by a bout of hyper-inflation. In either case tangible assets will once again emerge as the best wealth protector, and may prosper wildly. Collectibles like; art, first edition books, and numismatic coins have maintained their value during periods of crisis, and in many cases, escalated to extremely high values.

In the world of year 2,000—a world without digital money--hard money, particularly silver, gold, and platinum will become the preferred method of purchasing goods. Such money is universally liquid because it has intrinsic value.

Gold and silver in bullion and numismatic forms are; portable, liquid, and private—all important elements in a crisis. There are three kinds of gold and silver coins: ( 1 ) Newly minted gold and silver bullion coins, such as the American Eagles, or the Canadian Maples Leafs, etc. ( 2 ) Junk silver coins, ( pre-1965 dimes, quarters, half-dollars ) that have been circulated and consist of 90% silver, and ( 3 ) Numismatic ( or rare ) coins that have a collectors value above and beyond the value of the metal contained in them.

For most barter purposes ( as opposed to investment purposes ) , junk coins are probably the best. The problem is the volume and weight of junk silver. Junk silver is good for small day to day transactions, but inconvenient for buying a parcel of land. Gold bullion coins are about fifty times more valuable than silver by weight today, making gold coins ideal for larger transactions. If you have a good deal of wealth that you want to transfer safely from one side of the crisis to the other, then you should definitely consider U.S. numismatic coins. Rare coins offer privacy from government snoops and are also portable, liquid, and provide long term wealth insurance against an inflationary spiral. Numismatic coins are one of the best means of maximizing the law of supply and demand for long term profit. A balanced Y2K-proof portfolio should include a diverse mixture of gold and silver coins.

Prior to year 2,000 there is a golden opportunity to multiply your tangible holdings by using a ratio-trading strategy. This allows you to exchange silver for gold or gold for numismatic coins maximizing the market imbalances that occur during periods of economic instability. Most experienced metals brokers can explain ratio-trading in more detail. We recommend Swiss America Brokers.

You don't have to be wealthy to start converting your assets into tangible hard money assets, you can get started for as little as $100. A reputable dealer with a long reputation that offers a two-way market and gives you physical delivery is your best choice. Swiss America leads the top brokerages in the U.S. for their longevity, educational resources, liquidity, and integrity. After you convert into tangibles, carefully consider how you are going to safely store them out of harms way.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:05
(Mtn Bear (SE) - are you any relation?) ID#206162:
Copyright © 1998 /Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The average feller can’t spend Gold for groceries hereabouts. He can pawn it and get some cash like some local folks have done. He might even get 80 or 85 cents on the dollar.
The gov’t says the 1 oz Eagle is only worth US$5 face value. I suppose my corner grocer could subscribe to the Wall Street Journal - but the mail doesn’t get here ‘till noon or so! What with Gold up one day and down the next he could lose $20 overnight on just one “$5” Eagle! He could instead have his computer giving him quotes - if the charts & graphs work. “Bout the time he needs ‘em cuz some family wants to buy $200 in groceries - they’ll let him down and he won’t know how much green change to give her.
So what good is it besides wedding rings and fancy watches?
If Gold isn’t going to be used for money - the Central Banks don’t seem to want it used that way - then it ought to drop a hundred bucks or so. Guess that makes me a BEAR. ;-[

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:03
kapex (Steve Why wouldn't he be buying(buffet)at these prices?) ID#218214:
Makes real good sense to me, and if this market was ready to go down a lot more people such as yourself wouldn't be making those comments at the bottom. No offense. Just a contrarian opinion.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:01
goldfevr@pacbell.net (CHART:ratio of DJIA/CRB - from Nightly Business Report & Bridge Commodity Research Bureau) ID#434108:
Copyright © 1998 goldfevr@pacbell.net/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I hope all kitcoites saw this ratio chart, on 'Nightly Business Report' tv broadcast, 6/22/98....attributed to 'Bridge'.
It's conclusion was:
stocks are over-valued...in contrast to commodities.

The chart is very revealing, and confirmation of the explosion
that is in the making ( -IMHO ) .

Try:
http://www.nightlybusiness.org ....
&/or your - search-engines - for:
'Bridge'
& for -
'Bridge Commodity Research Bureau' ....
to find the chart, if you did not see it on tv.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:01
tolerant1 (Shlomo, Namaste' I know you said you have PMs and are looking for something) ID#373284:
else as an investment vehicle. I have given this a great deal of thought as well. From what I remember you mentioned getting out into the country. I still suggest buying bags of junk silver dimes and smaller gold coins like the Helvitia and Soverign.

Over the next five years there will be no more solid investment.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:01
ERLE (Steve in TO_) ID#190411:
When has Guarino been right about anything?
He has been saying to be short on sp500 for the past several years.
And, I don't recall him ever mentioning silver, until he said, See, I told you so. You should have bought silver. -After the fact, of course.
Even when he beats up on Clinton, he gets names and stories wrong.
As with LGB's clock that doesn't run, he'll be right on something, -someday.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 22:00
Speed (Erle) ID#29048:
Copyright © 1998 Speed/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
ROR should read this....

NEM owns 94% of NGC.

CIBC Oppenheimer Corp. issued a Company Report on May 12, 1998 for Newmont Mining Corp..

On May 12, 1998 CIBC Oppenheimer Corp.'s Research Department issued a 3 page Company Report on Newmont Mining Corp. Report highlights: 'A STRONG BUY rating was reiterated with a price target in the $44-$55 per share range. The company reported a 1998 first quarter EPS of $0.17 versus a 1997 first quarter EPS of $0.21. The company also announced that it received a favourable ruling from the Supreme Court of Peru regarding the ongoing preemptive rights litigation between it, Buenaventura, and the French government agency, BRGM, over the ownership of the Yanacocha mine in Peru.'

Report No.: N0089349

The full text of this and over 30,000 other reports are available for purchase from Zacks.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:58
EJ (Nekkie plummeting) ID#45173:
Japan...Nikkei 225...^N225...10:02PM...15088.41...-220.68...-1.44%

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:54
EJ (Shlomo: Generally speaking, in a deflation hard assets normally purchased) ID#45173:
with debt, such as cars and homes, lose value quickly. A house that sold for $100,000 in 1928 could be bought for $15,000 in 1934. Imagine a world with very high unemployment, few people earning money, thus few people are able to borrow or spend. What little cash anyone has they hold in reserve, unsure when they will get more. In a period of widespread debt default, as has been pointed out here before, only assets that are no one's liability retain value. Gold, for example, and silver. Maybe others here have other advice. Best of luck to you and your husband.
-EJ

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:52
gagnrad (Squirrel) ID#43460:
You said Now if they started early with minting a billion US$500 1-oz Gold coins and a billion US$1000 2-oz Gold coins instead...

Better check the ventillation in your bomb shelter, dewd. Sounds like you've got some carbon monoxide down there. They ain't gonna mint $500 coins. That would make the POG go up overnight. ( %-^] )

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:51
Steve in TO__A (Warren Buffett still buying silver?) ID#287337:
Nick Guarino is claiming that Buffett is still buying silver and intends to hold a lot more than the 20% of supplies than he now owns.

Sounds a bit farfetched to me. Does anybody have a take on that?

- Steve

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:47
EJ (year2000.com up to 3 million hits per month) ID#45173:
http://www.stjoenews-press.com/06-21-98/Lo4.shtml

Wanna invest in generator wholesale biz?

-EJ

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:43
sharefin ( Year 2000 Poll Finds Nation Waking To Troubling Reality ) ID#284255:
-
http://www.exchange2000.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-4962588
( PR NEWSWIRE ) DJ: Year 2000 Poll Finds Nation Waking To Troubling Reality
DJ: Year 2000 Poll Finds Nation Waking To Troubling Reality of Computer Problem

ARLINGTON, Va.-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --June 22, 1998--

Concerns Grow as Clock Ticks Down

Almost one in four Americans believe that Year 2000 computer related
failures may force them to undergo lifestyle changes, according to a new
Wirthlin Worldwide poll commissioned by the Information Technology
Association of America.
Released today at the World Congress on Information Technology in Fairfax,
VA, the survey finds half of those polled believe elected officials and
business leaders are not doing enough to address the Year 2000 issue. The
three top reasons cited by respondents for this are that the computer
industry will fix the situation when the time comes; that businesses are too
busy making money; and that there are too many other problems to solve.
The Year 2000 ( or Y2K ) challenge relates to the inability of computers and
other intelligent devices to interpret the century from information coded in
software. As the calendar flips to the Year 2000, computer programs not
adjusted to recognize the new century are apt to fail or to make erroneous
computations.
That one in four Americans is now concerned about the Year 2000 is a
compelling fact. Just one year ago, a reference to the Year 2000 would have
brought blank stares or an image of Times Square at midnight. Americans are
beginning to worry and it is time for our elected officials and business
leaders to wake up, said ITAA President Harris Miller.

Of those expecting Y2K-induced lifestyle changes, the ITAA/Wirthlin poll
indicates:

-- 80 percent are concerned that their financial records may be distorted --
72 percent believe there will be business losses -- 68 percent anticipate
possible telephone disruptions -- 64 percent fear power outages -- 56
percent worry that they may lose their jobs -- 42 percent foresee shortages
of products or merchandise

Poll data also suggests that those individuals with the most to lose as the
result of Year 2000 failures appear to be the least interested. For
instance, those individuals earning over $60,000 per year seem far less
concerned about the issue than those earning under $15,000. Eighteen percent
of those in the highest wage category indicated concerns about lifestyle
changes as compared to 34 percent in the lowest wage category. Those with a
college education were similarly less likely to be concerned about the
personal impacts of the computer date glitch. Similarly, 90 percent of the
Y2K concerned group with some high school education fear business losses as
compared to 52 percent of those with post graduate degrees; 73 percent of
the former group expressed concerns about job losses versus 40 percent of
the latter group.
Better educated Americans also appear to be more satisfied that those in
charge are taking the necessary steps to correct the problem. Fifty-two
percent of those with post graduate degrees and 48 percent of those with
college degrees indicated enough is being done; only 20 percent of those
with some high school agree.
These results are drawn from the Wirthlin National Quorum. The Quorum is a
telephone survey based on a representative random sample consisting of 1000
adults residing within the continental U.S.
The ITAA/Wirthlin poll results are strongly reinforced by a second Year 2000
survey, conducted by ITAA of World Congress attendees. The ITAA
IndustryPulse results show that 61.7 percent of these global information
technology executives foresee a significant impact from the Year 2000. Fifty
percent of respondents believe national governments are not doing everything
possible to address the issue.
ITAA consists of 11,000 direct and affiliate members throughout the U.S.
which produce products and services in the IT industry. The Association
plays a leading role in public policy issues of concern to the IT industry,
including taxes, intellectual property, telecommunications law, encryption,
securities litigation reform, and human resources policy. ITAA members range
from the smallest IT start ups to industry leaders in the software,
services, systems integration, telecommunications, Internet, and computer
consulting fields. Learn more about ITAA and its positions on the issues by
connecting to its web site at http://www.itaa.org.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:39
Squirrel (So what if they just print more money?) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Perhaps the US Treasury has several US$500-note plates ready to go. If they used these instead of US$100-note plates and they ran all the presses 24 hours/day, 7 days/week they could crank out US$200 to US$300 billion in one week! Maybe - just maybe they could keep up with a cash run. BUT THAT WOULD IGNITE INFLATION FEARS and visions of wheelbarrows of cash for groceries. Never mind that folks were only exchanging computer ledger numbers or CDs for green cash. They would hear only that the government was printing more money.
Now if they started early with minting a billion US$500 1-oz Gold coins and a billion US$1000 2-oz Gold coins instead...

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:34
tolerant1 (Mole, TYoung, Namaste' and a giant Island that is Long gulp to the two of ya!) ID#373284:
A stock to take a look at for you and all, ITRO, it is a tiny stock. With a few dollars down you can buy many shares. J.Taylor and his newletter brought it to my attention. They produce fertilizer AND recycle silver. J. Taylor calls it a moonshot...but as time is moving along so is the company...the moon is getting closer each and every day...

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=itro&d=v1

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:32
gagnrad (1)mining news URL 2)GM strike idles workers) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
There is too much today in the Yahoo mining news section to list so I'll post their main url. Consolidations, drill reports, one ( Friday's news ) Chapter 11, et cetera, IMHO:

http://biz.yahoo.com/news/mining.html

I wonder if all those 121,500 hourly workers idled in the strike get listed on the unemployment statistics? As far as I know striking isn't allowable reason to file for 'pennies'. You can bet the union bosses will be sitting in air conditioning this summer, IMHO:

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/business/story.html?s=z/reuters/980622/business/stories/gm_28.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:31
strat (kapex re: shakeouts) ID#93232:
One of my relations works on Capital Hill and I understand that all vacations for House Judiciary staffers have been cancelled through August ( ! ) . Sounds like Starr is getting ready to serve dinner!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:30
Mtn Bear (SE) (@chas re Veneroso) ID#347267:
Hi; Think I ordered the free offer from macrogold@aol.com ---
By chance are yu and charlyj of the St Inv threads one and the same

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:29
Isure (Crop Reports) ID#368244:

Here in Louisiana it's day after day of 100 + degree days. The crops have burnt in the fields. I have never seen anything like it! How about some crop reports from other parts of the world. Cotton used to be king, only one farmer in our parish planted it this year. The corn is dead in the fields.

No rain for months, and none in sight. Yet prices fall... Gold is good!!!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:25
TYoung (tolerant1) ID#317193:
And a gulp to you, too!

Tom

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:25
kapex (A post to a Hecla board about PM stocks.) ID#218214:
Copyright © 1998 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Wow, what a shakeout. The XAU has, or is, in my humble opinion completing a second wave retracement. If you go to cbs.marketwatch.com and go to tech. charting, you can clearly see a 5 wave advance from the low in Jan.
If, when a trend is changing from one direction to another, the 2nd wave is usually a bear trap in that most people dismiss the initial upleg as a false rally of sorts. When you see the enthusiasm for a market dry up like the one for PM stocks has, it only confirms that this is a shakeout of MAJOR proportions! Lots of times, the technical picture will not show that you should be buying with both fists. But rather, convince most that another
decline is imminent. If this market was ready to decline to major new lows everyone would be extolling the last great opportunity to buy before it goes up. At tops the market wants to take the greatest # of people Down with it that it possibly can ( read Stock Market ) , and at the bottom take the fewest up with it when it begins.
A lot of the possibly cataclysmic events that could take place in the not to distant future are happening as I speak. People become conditioned to believe that what has been happening, will continue to happen. Clinton, poss. impeach, India and pakistan. Thats enough to scare the s_ _ t out of any intelligent person. The complete and utter belief that inflation is dead. And then of course there is the asian thing, which if you think
about it, with what the goal of countries around the globe is right now ( Keep the economies growing regardless of the possible effects is, is potentially very Inflationary.
So, what I'm trying to say is, Don't look back and say Gee we couldn't see the forrest for the trees, because the damn things are sequoia's and they're all around us!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:24
Shlomo (TYoung/Hard Assets, etc.) ID#288399:
My husband and I feel as you do: currencies are becoming toilet paper, slowly but inexorably. We went out and bought a brand new car ( we always bought used before ) and a second home for cash. Other than PM's, does anyone have other suggestions for buying something of value that will hold its value relative to moldering paper?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:22
Miro (@ROR - do you know what are you talking about?!?!) ID#347457:
Copyright © 1998 Miro/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
ROR,

while I don't agree with many things going on in this free market society, I have to question your knowledge of the real facts about other countries and their economic systems.

I came from Europe, a lot of my family members and friends live in European countries ( Switzerland, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Czech, Denmark, etc. ) . I spent a lot of time in those countries, working, I talk to my family, etc. It seams to me that your postings reflect mostly a theoretical experiences and not the real knowledge about how thing ARE. Without any desire to spend a lot of time on continuing this discussion, let me ask you just one question: Have you ever lived in any of those countries, not as American tourist passing by, but as a person making living on day to day basis?!?!


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:20
Squirrel (Allen - more figures to back up your 17:28) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
My local bank assures me the Feds have stockpiles of new and old currency and they are prepared to print much much more to meet a currency run on the banks.
Hmmm - I checked some Treasury sites and did some figuring.
The US Government could print $40 to $50 billion per week if they had to. I agree with Allen. This would still not be fast enough to cover a run on the banks with people turning their accounts and CDs into green cash. Allen’s figure of US$5500 billion compares well with the WSJ’s M3 figure of $5600 billion.
http://www.bep.treas.gov/nptemp.cfm?id=12
“The Bureau of Engraving and Printing produces 38 million notes a day with a face value of approximately $541 million. 95% of the notes printed each year are used to replace notes already in circulation. 48% of the notes printed are $1 notes.”
http://www.bep.treas.gov/nptemp.cfm?id=43
Each pair ( face & back} of presses at 8000 32-note sheets/hour could print 6 million notes per 24 hours. The western facility has 6 pair of presses and produces 40%. We may assume Washington has 9 pair for the other 60%.
http://moneyfactory.com/west.htm
All the presses running 24/hrs day, 7days/wk {less 38% down time}could print $40 billion per week - more with less down time and if they got Scotty to tweak them for an extra warp factor or two.
For current production refer to:
http://www.bep.treas.gov/pro.htm

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:17
ERLE (TYoung) ID#190411:
Sure it's scary out there, and I went in at the bottom of the goldstock market.
Cherokee, I believe is right about the grains. I'd like to know what he thinks about some of the grains going down in the face of all of the horrible weather in parts of the South.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:11
ERLE (hipshot) ID#190411:
I've got some Euro-Nevada too, but It doesn't seem to me that ROR is interested in that Canadian stuff.
He plays around with the socialist crap, but we all know that he is here to get the kitcoite poop on the goldstocks.
Maybe he could buy 10,000 shares of Franco-Nevada, but I still think that the NGC would give him more self-esteem.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:09
Mole (@Tolerant1) ID#34883:
Namaste!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:03
ERLE (Thanks Speed) ID#190411:
'Cause it has Gold in the name.
Seriously, I don't know. Aren't they pretty much the same? Sure I'll show my ignorance.
I thought that NEM's only large asset is NGC. Didn't NEM sell off nearly all of their non PM assets?
Enlighten me, and my good pal ROR, for he's interested in some too.
I have a small amt. of NGC.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:03
TYoung (Scared...h*ll no I'm terrified.......) ID#317193:
Copyright © 1998 TYoung/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If you have not noticed gold is volatile as of late. So are the stock markets. Likewise, currencies. Investors in gold mining shares have had their @sses handed to them at every turn.

I’m no ANOTHER follower but hard assets would seem to me to be the place to be. Commodities are the last bastions of wealth preservation. Look and see what is happening around you. Paper assets are on fire. Can the powers that be save the current system? Perhaps, but placing your bets on government seems rather risky to me.

Wealth preservation may be the theme of the here and now. I am just guessing like all the rest of you but the real money players have to be moving out of paper. Anybody got any alternatives but hard assets without debt?

I’m moving some funds back to gold shares before July. Paper, yes, but I have to hedge my bets. At least gold shares are tied to a hard asset. Same for silver mining shares. Gold may well be back in the $280’s. Good time to jump in. Try the grains...cherokee is swinging his bat...hard assets. Yes?

Unless paper assets stabilize very, very soon I suggest the exits will be blocked. Disney might be right, or at least his son, but I’ll not wait for Harmony @ $3.25. To much volatility in the paper.

Bullish...more like oh sh*t...time to protect ones assets.

Oris...F*...RJ...JD...what see yea?

Tom


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 21:00
EJ (Here we go again: Nikkei down, tomorrow the DOW takes a beating) ID#45173:
Japan....Nikkei 225....^N225....9:03PM....15185.76....-123.33...-0.81%

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:59
ROR (POOR GUY) ID#412286:
Democratic socialism is not the Communist dictatorship you refer to. Ask Germans, French and Canadians how many long for the US HEALTH CARE system or long to move here. Further, most Democratic Socialist countries put the Socialism for the BANKS of the US to shame. The USSR is dead and thank God as there went the biggest enemy and defamer of Socialism which ever existed. Viva la justice Economic and Social. Long live true freedom. Let the fog of propaganda be lifted and freedom come through. In other words TOLERANT1 wake up you are a smart guy.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:58
hipshot (ERLE) ID#348253:
I have followed Newmont Mining for years but not Newmont Gold. NEM is a first class mining company and an excellent buy at this price. Now it may get more excellent but I'm not a prophet. It will reward handsomely when POG goes up unlike so many other that have sold forward. The other stocks I consider on par with NEM is EN.TO and FN.TO. MY opinion and no investment advice offered.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:58
tolerant1 (ROR, Namaste' and a little more required reading...) ID#373284:
http://www.survival.com.mx/rants.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:56
Speed (ERLE) ID#29048:
NGC stuff from Yahoo:

http://biz.yahoo.com/z/a/n/ngc.html

Why do you like it over NEM?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:51
tolerant1 (ROR, Namaste' Further required reading...) ID#373284:
http://www.flashback.se/archive/IMPS-SOC.TXT

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:48
ERLE (ROR,) ID#190411:
I don't give a damn about Medicare.
I just want to know your opinion on Newmont Gold, ( NGC ) .
I'm trying to help you become assimilated into the capitalist class, and you just blather on about class warfare.
IMHO, if you buy 10,000 shares of NGC, you will be pleased with yourself.
OTOH, please don't sue them, for they aren't involved in any direct way with the health care system.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:48
HighRise (Honk Kong) ID#401460:

6/22/98 -- 7:33 PM
Hong Kong leader freezes land sales, moves to stabilize economy.

``The rising unemployment rate at the end of May, the continually weak economy in Japan and the drastic devaluation of the yen have added more uncertainty to
the already bleak economic outlook for Hong Kong,'' Tung said in a televised address.
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news101l.htm

HighRise

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:38
tolerant1 (ROR, Namaste', I will expect your paper posted by morning. Thank You...) ID#373284:
http://www.onelife.com/archive/socialism/index.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:37
ROR (Social Security/ Madicare battle) ID#412286:
Copyright © 1998 ROR/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Is about the US govt and Capitalist classes maintaining there elite power as world reserve currency status for the dollar and this depends on fiscal discipline of reigning in entitlements ie the SS and Medi WE pay for.Without this discipline the US dollar reserve status could be lost or shared and the ELITES in this country would lose a great lever in influencing events. THEY cant pay us and maintain their POWER through the dollar. This is why we here so much propaganda against govt dependency and personal responsibility. Rubbish, they want an inter generational war for THEIR benefit/ power so they wont have to meet the EARNED ENTITLEMENTS, they presently use to bail out BAD investments. No Personal responsibilty for the banks and investment house there ENTITLEMENT RULES. The Euro is coming about as there is realization that robbing the American worker of what he is owed is not such a sure thing.Fight to save entitlements and disenfranchise the IMF and the big institutions! When the Dollar system crashes we will have true freedom and Wall St will get its just desserts.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:35
gagnrad (Mr Disney) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You asked a rhetorical question this AM. May I answer? I don't think this is really off topic as much as it sounds as the fuzzy headed socialist mindset is the driving force for much of what is askew in the stock and commodities markets and the political control freaks are the ones who endanger private ownership of the PMs. IMHO

Whats the point
of debating with guys like ROR.
His opinions are set by some life
experience or a strange but unknown
loyalty .. maybe he is a member
of the Barbra Streisand fan club
... or a whoopie goldberg
admirer .. who knows .. who cares.
You wont put so much as a dent
in this bird's thinking. Save your
strength.

Debate isn't helpful per se but rather to draw them out so we can see the soft underbelly of their strange ideas, sans Madison Avenue hype. Plus when they condescend to talk to us it gives an idea what they're planning to steal next, who they're planning to defame and who they're going to rob. It allows us to see what ideas they ridicule and which ones reduce them to a cringing ball of venomous spit! IMHO

Spoken of course, by a fellow who keeps a 10 foot snake as a housepet. I wanted to keep a Klinton Democrat instead ( they can be very cute if you can teach them to talk your language ) but my wife was afraid I couldn't housebreak it. IMHO


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:34
Prometheus (@More Asian news. ) ID#210235:
http://www.desnews.com:80/biz/vv0r3rhw.htm

First ever ( Red ) Chinese bank goes belly up.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:30
Prometheus (@JP) ID#210235:
Re Hong Kong market, I have no clue how the market will react tonight.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:28
tolerant1 (Chas, Namaste' read this, been going down hill ever since...) ID#373284:
http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/Lobby/8350/serpico.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:26
sharefin (Y2k info) ID#284255:
http://farmboys.com/y2k/
http://208.228.76.74/defaultb.htm

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:22
hipshot (Allen(USA) your 17:28) ID#348253:
Yes, you are right it is time. However, I took an informal conversational survey at a wedding reception this weekend -- mostly college educated/mixed demographics. Hardly anyone was Y2k conversant and many lacked familarity with the issue. This could change overnight and probably will as normal people realize its acceptable to worry about the problem and maybe even do some planning -- after all, misfortune is primarily lack of anticipation. Right?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:19
Prometheus (@duh) ID#210235:
Cuero = Cuervo

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:17
ROR (Europe) ID#412286:
Copyright © 1998 ROR/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Has been designated the new base of wealth and prosperity through the new currency thanks to the durable social stability provided by its Democratic Socialist tradition. Already many of these countries boast of living stds way above the US. Further, they have trade surpluses versus the SUPPOSED competitive US economy HAHA. The US is being Dummed down, Morally dum downed and robbed of its its industrial and scientific base by the US Capitalist clas which seeks profit at any cost and has absolutely no national loyalty. This is in opposite to the Capitalists in countries which have a Socialist Economic system or more correctly a balanced system. Again the so called bloated Socialist systems of Europe and Japan have surpluses and the competitive US has deficits HELLO. The stk mkt gives the US the false look of success. The big money KNOWS the US cant last hence EURO. Viva La Socialisma!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:14
Gollum (@EJ) ID#43349:
No I didn't get to do much in the back room. Had to run some errands.
Did get a chance to see why elves said -180 on such a boring day. Lever
was out of place. Put it back.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:14
Prometheus (@Avalon) ID#210235:
Re your earlier question on China holding US $$ reserves. This reference is close - no cigar and Cuero yet.

http://www.insidechina.com:80/china/news/98061511.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:14
ERLE (NGC on sale today) ID#190411:
I wish I could swap ABX for NGC.
Newmont Gold is not going to stay here.
Make some money even as a short term trade, I think.
They are even profitable.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:12
Gollum (@JTF) ID#43349:
The antioxidents are all good. Also folic acid.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:12
chas (tolerant1 re Candy balls & RR) ID#344259:
We are heavily in agreement about these two. Talking heads, Leaden heads and leaden asses can only play their game. In their position, they should play for the country. It's real easy to raid the kitty and get away, if you can bullshit everybody else. They have the mouth, Charlie

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:12
sharefin (Email chatter) ID#284255:
I was watching a news program on PBS with Sen. Bennett and two
ther people concerned with the Y2K issue. Sen. Bennett said that
the fed chairman told him that they will print an extra 80 billion
dollars of cash for the weekend of dec 31 1999. Any comments on this?
It would seem to me that this will not be a good move economically.



Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:08
chas (Gusto oro re tia) ID#344259:
I can understand that, but I don't get the connection, please.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 20:04
James (John D.@Caught Rudi Dornbusch on CNBC this afternoon & if possible) ID#252150:
he's even more pessimistic than you re: Japan. He said that the last surprise from Japan was Pearl Harbor. He does'nt offer any hope for the short/intermediate term & feels that they will be in a depression for many years. I still think Rubin & Co. have a few tricks up their sleeves.

I think I see a pinprick of light at the end of the tunnel. Uh oh! it's that damned Japanese bullet express train about to demolish what's left of the SEAsian economies.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 19:50
bright (robnoel) ID#207240:
Copyright © 1998 bright/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The cash liquidity of banks is nil. Cash can't earn interest. The banks hold T-bills, T-Bonds, and government back securities as assets.
In the U.S. the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, looks more at the difference in duration of the Bank's assets. The Bank wants to take your demand deposit and invest in a 5 yr. Government security. The banks have agreements with other larger banks and the government to mortgage those securities for cash. If a bank suffered a local liquidity problems the bank would be answering questions for a while, on why they let it happen. If liquidity problems were widespread the government would pour cash on them, since most bank are about the same. When one is familar with the difference in duration, there is no way for a bank to survive without the aid of the government printing press in the face of such a crisis.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 19:50
James (Meat vs vegan@ big deal--Spock lived to 94. My hero Winston Churchill) ID#252150:
lived to 92 & enjoyed his roast beef & also Cuban cigars & fine brandy right to the end. Does anyone think that an extra 2 years on this planet is worth all that deprivation. I think not & am off to the pub to quaff a few & probably have a plate of nachos with lots of sour cream & maybe even some honey garlic wings. In the interests of nutrition though, I'll eat a raw carrot before I go.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 19:38
Carl (@mybear) ID#341189:
Barron's lists the info you seek for the Dow averages and the S&P 500 and the S&P Ind. Index in their Market Lab section. Market to book for the S&P 500 is 605% with P/E at 27.84.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 19:35
dirt (low cost producers) ID#215379:
One of the lowest cost producers in the world is Ashanti in Ghana, check it out..

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 19:35
James (MTN BEAR (SE)@I agree with you on POI going up & was heartened to see that ) ID#252150:
my oil service/drilling stock was up around 3% today. If they cut production by 6% they can increase prices by 30%. Even a dumb bureaucrat could see the wisdom in that & I don't think they're dumb. I feel that the Saudis let the price slip as low as it has in order to force the cheating miscreants into compliance & also to force a cutback in exploration. 2 goals which they have pretty well acomplished. Ther will definitely be a lot of turmoil because they still have to deal with Iraq.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 19:26
HopeFull (geoffs..) ID#402148:
Already had rolling correction. If not for the the largest popular stocks in the S&P, it would be down at least 20% now.

Many cyclicals are trading at crash of '87 lows on valuation basis.

HB

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 19:22
Avalon (Low Cost Producers; What are the lowest cost producers in each of 1. North America) ID#254269:
2. South Africa 3. Australia ?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 19:21
James (The JY bears are being set up for another thrashing. Currency Interventions are ) ID#252150:
like potato chips-you can't have just one. Do they think that RR would put his reputation on the line if he could'nt be successfull @ least for the short to intermediate term?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 19:04
Argent (CoolJing) ID#255217:
Try Squirrel; he has EVERYTHING. Get the spray can.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 19:02
mybear (1. information wanted 2. Y2K info for you) ID#349224:
Copyright © 1998 mybear/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
1. Information wanted: Hey, can anyone tell me where I can see the price/book, price/earnings and dividend yield for the DOW, the Nasdaq and the S&P500. Investor's Business Daily has this info for the DOW but told me that Mr O'Neill does not consider the statistics on the other two markets important enough ( I found out later that the div yield on the S&P 500 is there, you just have to look for it ) . This is despite the fact that the PE on the Nasdaq is perhaps 60. In fact, if you take out the four highest cap stocks in the Nasdaq, the remaining stocks have a PE about 80-90.

2. Y2K information: We've been looking into Y2K compatibility on the HP Vectra computers. Our company sells Vectras as part of our electronic measurement equipment and has been selling them since some time in 1995.

Tests on a 100 MHZ 486 Vectra ( vintage 1995 ) revealed it to not be compliant. That is, it does not roll over properly on 12-31-1999. It falls back to 1980 ( actually the system clock rolls over ok but does NOT faithfully update the real time clock ) . Evidently some Pentiums of the same vintage and earlier need BIOS changes to be compliant. Newer Pentiums are compliant according to HP. Visit their web site at HP.com for details.

One of our customers insisted in late 1995 in having an IBM true blue PC. This was because they had good IBM product support in Hong Kong. They just told us that their IBM PC 330 ( shipped as part of our product ) does not roll over properly. We are in the process of finding out how they can upgrade their BIOS. IBM also has information on the web for their PC's.

We are truly fortunate that most of our systems in the field are compliant. On the systems that are not compliant, they will not stop working ( when rolling over to 1980 in the year 2000 ) . They will simply print reports with the wrong date until the clock is set properly to the new millennium. Then they will work ok thereafter.

3. Further Y2K ramblings: Consider the case of a nuclear power plant using a personal computer to operate their access control system. Dates are often entered to determine what doors employees can access during certain time periods. Suppose the system clock ( the system clock is set from the real time clock at bootup ) reverts to 1980 or some other incorrect date. What if the program then allows everyone access? Or what if the program then allows nobody access? What if you were locked out of an important room or maintenance area?

If you can answer the question in 1, please email me. Thanks!

mybear@flash.net

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 18:58
JP (Prometheus--Regarding your post on Honk Kong frozen land sales ) ID#253153:
Any opinion what the Heng Sang may do tonight ?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 18:58
Gusto Oro (Not everybody...) ID#377235:
Geoff: Dines is calling for a big summer rally in the stock market that takes mining stocks along for the ride. He's very bullish on gold right now. --AG

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 18:56
Gusto Oro (@Chas) ID#377235:
Chas, tia is Spanish for aunt.' --AG

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 18:55
geoffs (Comments Keep hearing 20-30 % CORRECTION in DOW -Comning OURWAY) ID#432157:

Is evertbody saying this or what

Comments

Thankyou

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 18:54
Gusto Oro (@M&M 18:20) ID#377235:
I suppose if worst comes to worst you could always eat yourself. --AG

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 18:51
CoolJing (the REALLY big coin idea) ID#343171:
Copyright © 1998 CoolJing/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
We all remember two months back or so when there was talk of a millenium gold coin, minted by 'major gold mining companies', this I believe was floated by Barricks Munk and Placers Willson. The idea being that demand for the coin could mop up central bank selling.

I have seen ZERO follow-up on this, did I miss something or is this just more evidence of the industry leadership void?

I'd also like to see them both close out their hedges, maybe send a substantive message to the markets and support their own industry. A lot of these guys don't look at a hedge as a short sale!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 18:48
ERLE (Disney, darn if you wern't right.) ID#190411:
See Avalon's 15:45 URL.
It seems that the SA producers need some exprience in open cut mines.
So, they are after training mines.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 18:39
MM (World Bank News) ID#350179:
World Bank official warns poverty rate in Indonesia may double
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0622/i_ap_0622_74.sml

World Bank sees challenges for EU enlargement
http://www.abcnews.com/wire/World/Reuters622981602.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 18:38
CoolJing () ID#343171:
where can I buy some y2k jelly to protect my assets?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 18:21
tolerant1 (If Rubin or any of these other individuals had any sense of HONOR they would) ID#373284:
give up this criminal charade called the fractional reserve banking system. Why try to guess what the fox is doing in the hen house. There is no question that this game is up...it is merely a matter of time...If you are not prepared by holding things, coins, metal you are going to get hammered.

That is the simplistic way of putting it. Money in and of itself should not be complicated...not complicated at all...

Go ISLAMIC MINT!!!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 18:20
MM (EJ - Fidelity) ID#350179:
Some time ago I took possession of my 401 ( k ) from Fidelity. It takes longer than you might think... Anyway, at one point the customer service personnel could not find my check for three days. One segment of the system had been down, and the balance of my account had temporarily vanished - no visible trace. I was assured that an investigation had been initiated ( uh huh... ) . Why wait 'til Y2K when you can have the stress today...

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 18:13
chas (Donald re Rubin) ID#342315:
Do you think Rubin's insistence on a strong dollar for capital inflows is priority # 1 for marketing Treasuries? Not only new debt, but in case of treasuries sales from abroad. I feel the stock market may be # 2 because Goldman is nearly out and Rubin no longer cares that much. Relatively speaking.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 18:10
Prometheus (@Avalon) ID#210235:
Copyright © 1998 Prometheus/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Yes, thank you. I understand. I have also heard that conditions in Hong Kong are very sharply down, retail sales, etc., by half or more, but that official numbers are coming in much higher than what is. The HK gov't is trying very hard to avoid intervention by Beijing in their stumbling economy, and painting a much prettier picture than is real. I am concerned that deflation, once it's gotten to this point, will be hard to reverse.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/9806/05/text/business12.html

http://www.smh.com.au/news/9805/28/text/world1.html

http://www.economeister.com/news/1998_05/29/074900ec.htm

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 18:02
chas (Anybody re Veneroso) ID#342315:
I need email address. Mine screwed up. TIA

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:57
NJ (IDT) ID#20748:
Copyright © 1998 NJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A very interesting post from Veneroso.


We have had such an enthusiastic response to this piece, I am sending it to you.
It's subtle implications for a postitive move up in the gold price may be of interest.
Bill Murphy
Veneroso Associates


Veneroso Associates
June 22,1998 Frank A. J.
Veneroso

US Economy
A Rubin-In-A-Box?

The dollar has been in a three-year bull market. It has moved massively
against the yen and the exchange rates of many of the world's emerging economies.
Lastly, the Asian economies it has rallied against have now entered serious
recessions.
The US trade deficit is deteriorating rapidly. Given the lags in trade, much
of this year's weakness in these foreign currencies and economies has yet to impact
our trade deficit. Much more trade deterioration lies ahead.
The US stock market has recently shown signs of weakness because of adverse
earnings reports stemming from dollar strength and economic weakness in Asia. The
recent US/Japan intervention to lower the dollar against the yen and avert another
downward spiral of the currencies and economies of South East Asia caused worried
investors to breathe a sigh of relief and led to a reflex rally in US stocks.
Investors may now favor a weaker dollar.
The Rubin Treasury has pushed for a strong dollar in order to encourage short
term capital inflows into US stock and bond markets. It has feared a weak dollar on
the grounds that a weak dollar could reverse this capital flow, with negative
implications for US stock and bond markets.
We believe that economic weakness in Asia is setting the stage for a new
currency and economic crisis in Latin America. Because the US trades more with Latin
America than Europe does, such a crisis could weaken the dollar against the European
currencies. A declining dollar relative to Europe and Japan is the very dollar
weakness that the Rubin Treasury fears.
A strong dollar may now be bad for US profits and thereby for the US stock
market. A weak dollar may generate short term capital outflows, which may also be bad
for the Us stock market.
The following report sketches out a scenario. It is not a forecast. The US
stock market is a bubble which will eventually burst. Collapse of the US stock market
will cause a US recession. However, it is the nature of bubbles that they go on
longer and get larger than any same person can imagine. We set out in what follows a
dynamic path that could burst the US stock market bubble and lead to global deflation.
However, all the political constituencies in the world want economic growth and
reflation. It is our guess that, if this dynamic begins to unfold, policy everywhere
will move enough toward stimulus to result in reflation, not deflation, and thereby
postpone the inevitable denouement for a later date.

Past US Policy---Competitiveness Called For a Reasonable Exchange Rate
From the early 1970's onward, American industrialists have been concerned
about competitive inroads from lower wage countries on a rapid path toward
modernization. In the 1980's the focus was on Japan and its successful takeover of a
long succession of consumer durable goods markets ( autos, TV's, etc. ) and some high
tech markets ( semiconductors ) that were developed initially by US firms. By the
1990's concerns were rife that imports of an ever widening range of goods from lower
wage countries, particularly in the Far East, would hollow out America's industrial
base.
Past Secretaries of the Treasury in the United States conducted economic
policy with an eye toward preventing a loss of US competitiveness. Faced with calls
for protectionism from firms and workers whose industries and jobs were at risk, these
former Treasury regimes were biased toward a low dollar exchange rate which would
enhance the position of US industries in world trade without running the risk of trade
wars posed by protectionist solutions. Most of these Treasury Secretaries remembered
an earlier era when the US ran current account surpluses and was the world's largest
creditor nation. From this perspective, US current account deficits were a source of
weakness they wished to rectify. It was only a few years ago at 100 yen to the dollar
that Mickey Cantor and Lloyd Bentsen were fighting to improve US competitiveness in
global tradeables markets with, among other weapons, a threat of dollar devaluation.
The Rubin Treasury---A Strong Dollar Supports US Financial Markets
In recent years, the Rubin Treasury has differed from its predecessors in that
it has followed a very strong dollar policy. Secretary Rubin has differed in his
focus: trade competitiveness is seldom cited as an issue; instead, he emphasizes the
support a strong dollar gives to domestic financial markets. We see this clearly in
an interview Mr. Rubin granted to the New York Times, September 29th, 1996.

Mexico was still boiling when Rubin faced his second potential political disaster,
the fall of the dollar to below 80 yen.
For Rubin, this was more familiar territory: he had supervised the currency traders at
Goldman, and he knew both the fiscal and political risks. These kinds of occurrences
are not without consequences, Rubin said.
A declining dollar tends to drive investors out of American stocks, bonds and Treasury
debt, putting pressure on the federal government to raise interest rates. It would
take a while to show up, but I'm certain it would have happened, he said.

What can one say about Mr. Rubin's approach to exchange rate policy? First,
it presumes that destabilizing speculation rules the foreign exchange roost. If the
dollar was deeply undervalued at 79 yen to the dollar, US trade would improve relative
to Japan. Trade improvement implies an inflow of foreign exchange, which is
supportive to the exchange rate. US assets become cheaper relative to assets in
Japan. The cost of production of goods in the US falls relative to Japan, raising
returns to investment in the US at the expense of Japan. Such considerations should
draw in long term capital and thereby foreign exchange. Therefore, under such
conditions, the dollar would fall only if the flow of short term speculative capital
which chases price momentum rather than long run returns outweighs the exchange inflow
from the trade account and the long term capital account.
Economists have long argued whether speculation in any market is stabilizing
or destabilizing. In fact, in any market both exist, with predominance shifting
periodically from one to the other. There are always Milton Friedman's speculators
who stabilize markets by betting against a market that departs from its long run
equilibrium. And there are other speculators who, by riding trends, drive markets
away from such equilibria. Rubin's statements emphasize the role of destabilizing
speculation. For him, it is important to have a strong dollar to encourage trend
following speculative inflows of short term capital.

Encouraging strength in a dollar that is too low is constructive in that it
reverses the flow of speculative short term capital in a fashion that restores long
run equilibrium to the exchange rate. This is what coordinated intervention is all
about when it is on the right side of the fundamentals. This may have been
appropriate on the dollar's rise from its 1995 low at 79 yen. However, once the
dollar rises appreciably, such encouragement of trend following speculative short term
capital becomes questionable. It eventually can become destabilizing, causing a
speculative overshoot in the direction of extreme overvaluation. The dollar has risen
from 79 yen to 140 yen. The threat of deepening chaos in Asia and other emerging
economies and threats from China have finally forced Mr. Rubin to intervene against
the dollar. Yet Mr. Rubin still contends a strong dollar is in the interests of the
US and is warranted by the fundamentals.
It appears that Mr. Rubin believes that a strong dollar is always desirable to
the extent that it encourages short run speculative trend following capital inflows
which buoy domestic stock and bond markets and keep domestic interest rates low. The
other side of this coin is that a weak dollar from any level is dangerous in that it
will reverse such capital flows which can, to use Rubin's words, drive investors out
of American stocks, bonds and Treasury debt. A loss of competitiveness, a rising
current account deficit, and a growing net debtor position, all associated with a very
strong dollar, appear to always be outweighed by any potential risks from
destabilizing capital flows out of US stocks and bonds. This would appear to be an
example of the type of US short termism that one would expect from a trader from
Wall Street. It is noteworthy that this is the appraisal of Mr. Rubin's Treasury
given by the press organ of the Chinese central bank just prior to the US/Japanese
intervention on behalf of the yen.

Washington could cut interest rates and intervene in forex markets to stop the yen's
decline but feared that a sharp fall in the dollar would very likely cause an outflow
of foreign capital, causing a plunge in US stock and bond markets, it said. US
Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin had often touted the benefits to the US economy of a
strong dollar, it added. ( Reuters, June 16, 1998 )

Eventually, Relative Prices Matter
What, might we ask, does such short termism on the part of a trader from
Wall Street lead to when he becomes Secretary of the Treasury. When the exchange rate
is overshooting to the downside, as it may have in 1995, it admirably reverses
destabilizing short term capital flows, thereby restoring long run equilibrium. But if
pushed too long and too far, it fosters a new set of disequilibria. It results in a
loss of trade competitiveness. It propels asset markets ever higher with unstable
fuel from inflows of short term global speculative capital. In the case of the US it
is now hurtling the world's largest net debtor nation toward a record current account
deficit as a share of GDP. And it is helping send a stock market with an
unprecedented overvaluation ever higher.
At some point, encouraging trend following short term speculative capital to
support an exchange rate and stock prices at extreme points of overvaluation comes a
cropper. Why? Because relative prices do matter in the long run. Trade
competitiveness erodes. As the current account deteriorates ever greater offsetting
capital flows are needed to support the exchange rate. At the same time, returns to
investments in tradeables fall. Why would anyone build a plant in such an economy
when factor endowments and relative prices make it more profitable to build it
elsewhere? And, encouraged and abetted by speculative flows of international capital,
domestic share prices rise to valuations which are far too high relative to long run
prospective returns.
We are seeing ample signs of this in the US economy and markets. Every day US
corporations now report earnings disappointments. Owing to a strong dollar, they
suffer profit margin pressures. Owing to a strong dollar, they suffer eroding
domestic and foreign sales. In the present instance the outflow of short term capital
from the emerging world into the US has created financial and economic crises in these
economies which further weaken global markets for US industries. Overall, the
strength in the dollar exchange rate is now so great that US corporate profit
performance is deteriorating and is falling short of expectations. As a result, the
US stock market has been floundering, with weakness focused on corporations exposed to
the adverse direct and indirect consequences of the dollar's strength. Now, finally, a
key relative price, the US dollar exchange rate, may have moved so far from its long
run equilibrium that the relative price effect on US profits may pose a greater risk
to the US stock market than the possible withdrawal of the flows of short term
international speculative capital to which it may have grown addicted.

A Rubin-In-A-Box?
What might Mr. Rubin do if mounting earnings disappointments threaten the US
stock market with its unprecedented valuations? Like other Treasury secretaries
before him, he could move toward coordinated intervention against the dollar and try
to manage expectations by talking down the dollar. The recent intervention on
behalf of the yen was no doubt encouraged by investors' adverse reactions to earnings
disappointments arising out of a too strong dollar and to pressures from US corporate
interests that were adversely affected; in effect, prospects of a lower dollar were
seen as a positive for the US stock market. But, alas, if dollar weakness goes too
far, it might encourage the cumulative speculative capital flows of the last several
years to turn tail and run. By his own words, such dollar weakness could drive
investors out of American stocks, bonds and treasury debt.
Perhaps the penchant to purchase stocks by US households is so great that even
earnings disappointments will not undermine the US stock market.
( Note: We take this option very seriously. The US stock market is now driven
by bubble dynamics. Long run prospective returns no longer govern the formation of
investor expectations of future returns to stocks. Rather , investor expectations
formation has become almost completely backward looking or adaptive: it is the past
rate of stock price appreciation that determines expected future returns. We have
witnessed a one time move in stock valuations from historical lows in 1980-1982 amid
adverse economic conditions to record valuations amid unusually benign economic
conditions. This one-time rise in valuation has created a rate of appreciation in
stock prices that vastly exceeds trend. Investors with adaptive expectations of stock
price performance assume past 1982-1998 returns will go on forever. Surveys show that
80% of US households expect 14% or higher returns to stocks forever. In fact, at
today's lofty stock valuations, trend returns must approximate the growth in nominal
GDP ( 4.5% ) plus the dividend yield for an overall trend return of only 6%. Today's
stock valuations reflect unrealistic expected returns which in the end will not be
validated. Eventually, when disappointed, expected returns will erode, which will
reduce warranted valuations and the demands for stocks. Then the positive feedback
loop of bubble dynamics will go into reverse, drawing stock prices to and below their
long run equilibrium. But, near term, past positive stock price performance may still
drive investor demands for US stocks, resulting in a firm stock market despite
earnings disappointments. )

Perhaps we are wrong that the US stock market is 50% to 100% more overvalued than it
has been at prior historical peaks and that it exhibits classic bubble dynamics and
therefore is especially vulnerable. Then, Mr. Rubin faces no risks; neither
disappointing earnings nor a withdrawal of short term capital will threaten today's
lofty stock market. But if it is vulnerable, then Mr. Rubin may be caught in a
dilemma. He will have encouraged an addiction to short term global speculative
capital that has gone on for too long and that has gone too far. In the end, relative
prices will matter. Too rich an exchange rate will erode profits. Too rich a stock
market valuation will create unusual market vulnerability. Too high an exchange rate
will create current account deficits that may more than offset short term capital
inflows, which will in turn risk a sustained retracement of the dollar and a massive
withdrawal of short term speculative international capital. There may be no way out.
A sustained high exchange rate may lower earnings relative to unrealistic expectations
and imperil stocks. A move to lower the exchange rate may pull the support of large
cumulative speculative global capital flows. Mr. Rubin's sustained courting of short
run global speculative capital at the expense of almost all else may place him in a
box: a sustained high exchange rate may hurt too much and for too long, eroding the
current account, profits, and ultimately stock prices, and a declining exchange rate
may cause withdrawal of critical mobile global capital flows, which in turn may also
undermine stock prices. ¨





Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:57
OLD GOLD (outlook) ID#242325:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Selby: I agree with JIMS that we probably will base this summer. I look for a wide trading range of around $285-$310. Lots of opportunity for nimble traders.

I do expect POG to break out on the upside this fall when AG probably will start lowering rates to slay the dollar bull and head off a global slump. I am not nearly as pessimistic on the global econmy as JP, but do see considerable weakness developing in the months ahead. I suspect AG will begin to ease once the Dow breaks decisively below 8000. But I do not expect such a break until the fall.

We could get an upside breakout this summer if Japan takes decisive action to rescue its banking system. Odds of this no better than fifty-fifty in my judgement.

So the keys do a new gold bull ( assuming FV is correct that European selling is nearly done ) are a turnaround in Japan and when does AG start cutting rates.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:48
NJ (Prometheus : There are reasons.) ID#20748:
The real threat to world economy and, more importantly, to the Clinton Presidency, comes from China. A devaluation of the Chinese currency is what he dreads most, and China will devalue if it does not get what it wants from Clinton. At a time like this the Japanese are wise to wait and watch the outcome of this China visit.


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:44
Mtn Bear (SE) (Latest Email from Veneroso) ID#347267:
Copyright © 1998 Mtn Bear (SE)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

We have had such an enthusiastic response to this piece, I am sending it to you. It's subtle implications for a postitive move up in the gold price may be of interest.
Bill Murphy
Veneroso Associates


Veneroso Associates
June 22,1998 Frank A. J. Veneroso

US Economy
A Rubin-In-A-Box?

The dollar has been in a three-year bull market. It has moved massively against the yen and the exchange rates of many of the world's emerging economies. Lastly, the Asian economies it has rallied against have now entered serious recessions.
The US trade deficit is deteriorating rapidly. Given the lags in trade, much of this year's weakness in these foreign currencies and economies has yet to impact our trade deficit. Much more trade deterioration lies ahead.
The US stock market has recently shown signs of weakness because of adverse earnings reports stemming from dollar strength and economic weakness in Asia. The recent US/Japan intervention to lower the dollar against the yen and avert another downward spiral of the currencies and economies of South East Asia caused worried investors to breathe a sigh of relief and led to a reflex rally in US stocks. Investors may now favor a weaker dollar.
The Rubin Treasury has pushed for a strong dollar in order to encourage short term capital inflows into US stock and bond markets. It has feared a weak dollar on the grounds that a weak dollar could reverse this capital flow, with negative implications for US stock and bond markets.
We believe that economic weakness in Asia is setting the stage for a new currency and economic crisis in Latin America. Because the US trades more with Latin America than Europe does, such a crisis could weaken the dollar against the European currencies.. A declining dollar relative to Europe and Japan is the very dollar weakness that the Rubin Treasury fears.
A strong dollar may now be bad for US profits and thereby for the US stock market. A weak dollar may generate short term capital outflows, which may also be bad for the Us stock market.
The following report sketches out a scenario. It is not a forecast. The US stock market is a bubble which will eventually burst. Collapse of the US stock market will cause a US recession. However, it is the nature of bubbles that they go on longer and get larger than any same person can imagine. We set out in what follows a dynamic path that could burst the US stock market bubble and lead to global deflation. However, all the political constituencies in the world want economic growth and reflation. It is our guess that, if this dynamic begins to unfold, policy everywhere will move enough toward stimulus to result in reflation, not deflation, and thereby postpone the inevitable denouement for a later date.

Past US Policy---Competitiveness Called For a Reasonable Exchange Rate
From the early 1970's onward, American industrialists have been concerned about competitive inroads from lower wage countries on a rapid path toward modernization. In the 1980's the focus was on Japan and its successful takeover of a long succession of consumer durable goods markets ( autos, TV's, etc. ) and some high tech markets ( semiconductors ) that were developed initially by US firms. By the 1990's concerns were rife that imports of an ever widening range of goods from lower wage countries, particularly in the Far East, would hollow out America's industrial base.
Past Secretaries of the Treasury in the United States conducted economic policy with an eye toward preventing a loss of US competitiveness. Faced with calls for protectionism from firms and workers whose industries and jobs were at risk, these former Treasury regimes were biased toward a low dollar exchange rate which would enhance the position of US industries in world trade without running the risk of trade wars posed by protectionist solutions. Most of these Treasury Secretaries remembered an earlier era when the US ran current account surpluses and was the world's largest creditor nation. From this perspective, US current account deficits were a source of weakness they wished to rectify. It was only a few years ago at 100 yen to the dollar that Mickey Cantor and Lloyd Bentsen were fighting to improve US competitiveness in global tradeables markets with, among other weapons, a threat of dollar devaluation.
The Rubin Treasury---A Strong Dollar Supports US Financial Markets
In recent years, the Rubin Treasury has differed from its predecessors in that it has followed a very strong dollar policy. Secretary Rubin has differed in his focus: trade competitiveness is seldom cited as an issue; instead, he emphasizes the support a strong dollar gives to domestic financial markets. We see this clearly in an interview Mr. Rubin granted to the New York Times, September 29th, 1996.

Mexico was still boiling when Rubin faced his second potential political disaster, the fall of the dollar to below 80 yen.
For Rubin, this was more familiar territory: he had supervised the currency traders at Goldman, and he knew both the fiscal and political risks. These kinds of occurrences are not without consequences, Rubin said.
A declining dollar tends to drive investors out of American stocks, bonds and Treasury debt, putting pressure on the federal government to raise interest rates. It would take a while to show up, but I'm certain it would have happened, he said.

What can one say about Mr. Rubin's approach to exchange rate policy? First, it presumes that destabilizing speculation rules the foreign exchange roost. If the dollar was deeply undervalued at 79 yen to the dollar, US trade would improve relative to Japan. Trade improvement implies an inflow of foreign exchange, which is supportive to the exchange rate. US assets become cheaper relative to assets in Japan. The cost of production of goods in the US falls relative to Japan, raising returns to investment in the US at the expense of Japan. Such considerations should draw in long term capital and thereby foreign exchange. Therefore, under such conditions, the dollar would fall only if the flow of short term speculative capital which chases price momentum rather than long run returns outweighs the exchange inflow from the trade account and the long term capital account.
Economists have long argued whether speculation in any market is stabilizing or destabilizing. In fact, in any market both exist, with predominance shifting periodically from one to the other. There are always Milton Friedman's speculators who stabilize markets by betting against a market that departs from its long run equilibrium. And there are other speculators who, by riding trends, drive markets away from such equilibria. Rubin's statements emphasize the role of destabilizing speculation. For him, it is important to have a strong dollar to encourage trend following speculative inflows of short term capital.

Encouraging strength in a dollar that is too low is constructive in that it reverses the flow of speculative short term capital in a fashion that restores long run equilibrium to the exchange rate. This is what coordinated intervention is all about when it is on the right side of the fundamentals. This may have been appropriate on the dollar's rise from its 1995 low at 79 yen. However, once the dollar rises appreciably, such encouragement of trend following speculative short term capital becomes questionable. It eventually can become destabilizing, causing a speculative overshoot in the direction of extreme overvaluation. The dollar has risen from 79 yen to 140 yen. The threat of deepening chaos in Asia and other emerging economies and threats from China have finally forced Mr. Rubin to intervene against the dollar. Yet Mr. Rubin still contends a strong dollar is in the interests of the US and is warranted by the fundamentals.
It appears that Mr. Rubin believes that a strong dollar is always desirable to the extent that it encourages short run speculative trend following capital inflows which buoy domestic stock and bond markets and keep domestic interest rates low. The other side of this coin is that a weak dollar from any level is dangerous in that it will reverse such capital flows which can, to use Rubin's words, drive investors out of American stocks, bonds and Treasury debt. A loss of competitiveness, a rising current account deficit, and a growing net debtor position, all associated with a very strong dollar, appear to always be outweighed by any potential risks from destabilizing capital flows out of US stocks and bonds. This would appear to be an example of the type of US short termism that one would expect from a trader from Wall Street. It is noteworthy that this is the appraisal of Mr. Rubin's Treasury given by the press organ of the Chinese central bank just prior to the US/Japanese intervention on behalf of the yen.

Washington could cut interest rates and intervene in forex markets to stop the yen's decline but feared that a sharp fall in the dollar would very likely cause an outflow of foreign capital, causing a plunge in US stock and bond markets, it said. US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin had often touted the benefits to the US economy of a strong dollar, it added. ( Reuters, June 16, 1998 )

Eventually, Relative Prices Matter
What, might we ask, does such short termism on the part of a trader from Wall Street lead to when he becomes Secretary of the Treasury. When the exchange rate is overshooting to the downside, as it may have in 1995, it admirably reverses destabilizing short term capital flows, thereby restoring long run equilibrium. But if pushed too long and too far, it fosters a new set of disequilibria. It results in a loss of trade competitiveness. It propels asset markets ever higher with unstable fuel from inflows of short term global speculative capital. In the case of the US it is now hurtling the world's largest net debtor nation toward a record current account deficit as a share of GDP. And it is helping send a stock market with an unprecedented overvaluation ever higher.
At some point, encouraging trend following short term speculative capital to support an exchange rate and stock prices at extreme points of overvaluation comes a cropper. Why? Because relative prices do matter in the long run. Trade competitiveness erodes. As the current account deteriorates ever greater offsetting capital flows are needed to support the exchange rate. At the same time, returns to investments in tradeables fall. Why would anyone build a plant in such an economy when factor endowments and relative prices make it more profitable to build it elsewhere? And, encouraged and abetted by speculative flows of international capital, domestic share prices rise to valuations which are far too high relative to long run prospective returns.
We are seeing ample signs of this in the US economy and markets. Every day US corporations now report earnings disappointments. Owing to a strong dollar, they suffer profit margin pressures. Owing to a strong dollar, they suffer eroding domestic and foreign sales. In the present instance the outflow of short term capital from the emerging world into the US has created financial and economic crises in these economies which further weaken global markets for US industries. Overall, the strength in the dollar exchange rate is now so great that US corporate profit performance is deteriorating and is falling short of expectations. As a result, the US stock market has been floundering, with weakness focused on corporations exposed to the adverse direct and indirect consequences of the dollar's strength. Now, finally, a key relative price, the US dollar exchange rate, may have moved so far from its long run equilibrium that the relative price effect on US profits may pose a greater risk to the US stock market than the possible withdrawal of the flows of short term international speculative capital to which it may have grown addicted.

A Rubin-In-A-Box?
What might Mr. Rubin do if mounting earnings disappointments threaten the US stock market with its unprecedented valuations? Like other Treasury secretaries before him, he could move toward coordinated intervention against the dollar and try to manage expectations by talking down the dollar. The recent intervention on behalf of the yen was no doubt encouraged by investors' adverse reactions to earnings disappointments arising out of a too strong dollar and to pressures from US corporate interests that were adversely affected; in effect, prospects of a lower dollar were seen as a positive for the US stock market. But, alas, if dollar weakness goes too far, it might encourage the cumulative speculative capital flows of the last several years to turn tail and run. By his own words, such dollar weakness could drive investors out of American stocks, bonds and treasury debt.
Perhaps the penchant to purchase stocks by US households is so great that even earnings disappointments will not undermine the US stock market.
( Note: We take this option very seriously. The US stock market is now driven by bubble dynamics. Long run prospective returns no longer govern the formation of investor expectations of future returns to stocks. Rather , investor expectations formation has become almost completely backward looking or adaptive: it is the past rate of stock price appreciation that determines expected future returns. We have witnessed a one time move in stock valuations from historical lows in 1980-1982 amid adverse economic conditions to record valuations amid unusually benign economic conditions. This one-time rise in valuation has created a rate of appreciation in stock prices that vastly exceeds trend. Investors with adaptive expectations of stock price performance assume past 1982-1998 returns will go on forever. Surveys show that 80% of US households expect 14% or higher returns to stocks forever. In fact, at today's lofty stock valuations, trend returns must approximate the growth in nominal GDP ( 4.5% ) plus the dividend yield for an overall trend return of only 6%. Today's stock valuations reflect unrealistic expected returns which in the end will not be validated. Eventually, when disappointed, expected returns will erode, which will reduce warranted valuations and the demands for stocks. Then the positive feedback loop of bubble dynamics will go into reverse, drawing stock prices to and below their long run equilibrium. But, near term, past positive stock price performance may still drive investor demands for US stocks, resulting in a firm stock market despite earnings disappointments. )

Perhaps we are wrong that the US stock market is 50% to 100% more overvalued than it has been at prior historical peaks and that it exhibits classic bubble dynamics and therefore is especially vulnerable. Then, Mr. Rubin faces no risks; neither disappointing earnings nor a withdrawal of short term capital will threaten today's lofty stock market. But if it is vulnerable, then Mr. Rubin may be caught in a dilemma. He will have encouraged an addiction to short term global speculative capital that has gone on for too long and that has gone too far. In the end, relative prices will matter. Too rich an exchange rate will erode profits. Too rich a stock market valuation will create unusual market vulnerability. Too high an exchange rate will create current account deficits that may more than offset short term capital inflows, which will in turn risk a sustained retracement of the dollar and a massive withdrawal of short term speculative international capital. There may be no way out. A sustained high exchange rate may lower earnings relative to unrealistic expectations and imperil stocks. A move to lower the exchange rate may pull the support of large cumulative speculative global capital flows. Mr. Rubin's sustained courting of short run global speculative capital at the expense of almost all else may place him in a box: a sustained high exchange rate may hurt too much and for too long, eroding the current account, profits, and ultimately stock prices, and a declining exchange rate may cause withdrawal of critical mobile global capital flows, which in turn may also undermine stock prices. ¨





Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:44
Avalon (Prometheus; My read of the article you posted is that it only applies to ) ID#254269:
land the Government is selling to developers. Both Cheung Kong and Sun Hung Kai are two VERY large publicly traded developers and construction
companies in H.K. Another large developer is Wharf Holdings. I do not know what percentage they constitute of the H.K. stock exchange, but it would be sizable. All three of these companies are blue chip companies in H.K. ( and by world standards ) . What Chief Exec Tung is trying to do, is to prop up the land market and therefore the share prices.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:41
EJ (Y2K: how to do it right) ID#229277:
http://www81.fidelity.com/misc/y2k.html

Several months ago I posted that I had first hand knowledge that Fidelity has their stuff together on Y2K. Here now is some evidence of that, a clear, public disclosure of their effort.

Makes you wonder about ANY company that is NOT disclosing.

-EJ

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:35
Selby (Old Gold, Glenn, Oldman) ID#286230:
What is you view for gold over the next 3 months?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:35
robnoel__A (Thanks ALAN I feel a lot better now :-() ID#410198:
.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:31
Prometheus (@Avalon) ID#210235:
Thanks for the clarification. So this would only apply to new land for development, not the resale of an improved property.

I would suspect that in Hong Kong right now, after the collapse of this major development bank and the closure of land sales, that there isn't much property lending going on right now. What banker would lend under such conditions?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:31
MM (Along the lines of Strad Master's query) ID#350179:
What if the electronic payments system has a glitch during/after Y2K?
For example:
You pay your mortgage ( or any payment ) monthly via an automatic withdrawal, and either
A: the bank's ( sender ) system can't debit your account correctly or
B: the loan servicer's ( receiver ) system can't post the credit
- who would be legally liable?
You have the funds, but they simply can't be transferred correctly. Are there any payment insurers out there poised to make a bundle on this fear yet?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:28
Allen(USA) (Pair a noids) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Its time to seriously think about pulling some of your savings and CD's into cash. What are you willing to risk being locked into the system when bank operations are restricted? Do not make the mistake of thinking that all is well because your accounts ( up to a TOTAL of $100,000 only ) is FDIC insured, that is not the issue here. A cash crunch ( ie - not enough cash to saticfy withdrawl demand ) does not necessitate bank failures. What concerns me is two fold; 1 ) not enough cash at large, and 2 ) government intervention to stop you from getting cash ( when just a few put strain on the cash available ) . You will not know this is coming.

The folks at the Fed know what the flows are. They monitor cashouts of CD's, etc. They know when cash is dribbling out the door and not coming back in again, and where, and the rate of increase/decrease. They will not wait for lines to form in a lot of places before they stop the majority of people from trying to move some of their assets into cash.

There is an increase in activity of people moving some of their digital wealth into actual paper cash ( withdrawls from banks ) and PM coin. Six months ago this was not even discussed. Now it is being discussed along with survey information confirming the news that enough people in the general public are currently looking at Y2K issues as a determinant of their patterns of wealth preservation to create bank runs ( easily ) .

Each individual must consider their own interests here. I encourage you to have cash **now**, somewhere outside of the banks. You may feel very uncomfortable with this idea. It is possible that you see the problem but are defering action simply because it is to emotionally painful to consider doing something like this.

Remember, there is

US$140 Billion in cash in circulation ( in the USA ) and
US$5500 Billion in 'hot money' accounts.

A ratio of 1 dollar in cash for every 39.28 dollars in accounts which can move in an instant.

If 2% of that 'hot' money ( US$110 billion ) moved into cash then there would be NO CASH AVAILABLE ANYWHERE in the USA. What would it take to start a bank run? 1/2% ( US$27.5 Billion ) , 1/10% US$550 million?

Remember, the government has an interest in controlling behavior it deems as contrary to the public good. They make the rules. They change the rules. And one day the rules may not be slanted in your favor anymore.

Avoid the rush.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:22
tolerant1 (Prometheus, Namaste' The Manchurian Erection is clearly a profiteering traitor.) ID#373284:
Single-handedly he has dismantled the military, destroyed foreign policy and discarded some of our most ardent and strident allies. Pity America and the suffering financially world wide for his stupidity. Pray for the men and women that defend this country via our military because there is surely, as you sit, looking at your screen reading this, bloodshed over the horizon.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:21
Mtn Bear (SE) (Lazy Daze) ID#347267:
Copyright © 1998 Mtn Bear (SE)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All:
GOLD: OK, so we're in the lazy, hazy, hot days of summer. Let us NOT get too complacent and think that things cannot change and quickly. IMO gold is behaving quite well considering we are in the process of retesting the Jan 09, 1998 lows. Keep it in perspective: if the Jan lows are not broken, this could turn into a huge double bottom and portend a massive rise; breaking through the 315 area decisively is key. If the rise of last week was due to short covering, and the short position is as large as many say, any continuation upward could cause continued similar moves. We should all think on that as my grandaddy used to say. If it doesn't happen, we have a nearby low to signal a failure; what more could an investor/trader want

OIL: Why do I get the feeling that we ain't agonna see lower oil prices Methinks the oil producers have had it with these multiyear lows. Somethin is going to happen, although I admit I havent a clue as to what. I admit that I subscribe to the theory that major moves in oil and gold are interdependent. I guess I cannot see the wordwide
depression happening just yet, and maybe that is coloring my thinking. Anyways, I really like the look of that last little bounce!! Does anyone believe oil is gonna stay down here for the duration?

Sorry for the rambling, meant to post yesterday, but Grandson of age 7 took priority: Got that priority straight, anyway!!!!

August Gold: http://router.minot.com/~bohl/display.pl>http://router.minot.com/~bohl/display.pl
XAU ( 1 Year ) http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^XAU&d=1y
August Crude http://router.minot.com/~bohl/display.pl
Note: URL's do not seem to be copying right, just separate 'em and use if you wish.

Best regards; Mtn Bear

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:18
robnoel__A (One of these days I'll post proper English) ID#410198:
.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:17
Avalon (Hong Kong Land Sales. @ Prometheus. The article was not specific as I recall) ID#254269:
Copyright © 1998 Avalon/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
but in Hong Kong, as I understand it, land is in such short supply that the Government ( The Colony ) sells ( by auction ) land to developers who then build on it and sell to the end retail customers. Do NOT confuse this with a freeze on land sales between individuals. There are some very large publicly traded property developers in H.K. who constitute a large portion of the H.K. stock exchange.
This goes back to the old British system, that land belongs to the Crown and gets released to the developers for actual building. Of course, the developers will not bid at auction if they don't think they can sell the finished product. HTH.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:16
Donald (@Prometheus; Reserve Requirement details) ID#26793:
http://www.ny.frb.org/pihome/fedpoint/fed45.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:15
robnoel__A (Donald...So correct me if I'am wrong,a bank with 100 million in deposits would only to be able to ) ID#410198:
accommodate 70 jumbo CD clients.....what are getting worried about

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:13
Prometheus (@I have heard that the Japanese are just furious) ID#210235:
that Clinton isn't making the customary visit to Tokyo of a president travelling in Asia. He is really burning some important bridges here, both India and Japan are insulted, Taiwan humiliated. And all this while news is out that the Chinese Military paid 10% of the pro-Clinton Let's Get Back to Business Internet publicity site. Takes the breath away, it does.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:09
Prometheus (@Thank you, Donald) ID#210235:
That article I posted on Hong Kong's moratorium on land sales until April of next year, in an effort to halt the slide in land prices, just blew my socks off. Don't recall any historical precedent for this. One of their big development banks just folded, you see. Can't see why it isn't headline news. Am I missing something here?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:09
Donald (The numbers below are all 50 day moving averages.) ID#26793:
Spot gold $299.69, spot silver $5.65, XAU 80.08

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:07
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Gold/Silver Ratio = 55.34. The 50 day moving average is 53.16

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:06
FOX-MAN__A (Prometheus; Good reading. I seemed to key in on the part that says:) ID#288186:
increasing fears that the Asian financial crisis may spill over
into the Chinese financial system...
Fox-Man

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 17:04
Donald (@Prometheus) ID#26793:
Yes. It is 7% of deposits as I recall but it is calculated on Wednesday only. Investments such as T-Bills that are highly liquid can be counted as cash also. I am not entirely up-to-date on all the details.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:59
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
XAU/Spot Ratio = .231. The 144 day moving average is .255. My database contains 17 occasions where the XAU closed in the 68.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price today is #10. The #1 ranking was on 4/29/86 with a gold price of $345.00, an XAU of 68.71, producing a XAU/AU ratio of .199

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:58
robnoel__A (Prometheus....thanks that just explains why the banker boys are getting real worried...2% cash on ) ID#410198:
hand..mmmmmm...that takes care of the first hundred customers....no reason to think the others will panic....is there

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:57
Prometheus (@Hi, Donald) ID#210235:
Is there a minimum amount of cash on hand that a bank must keep on site relative to their total customer deposits?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:53
robnoel__A (JTF.....HOW WASHINGTON'S BAILOUT HELPED THE CHINESE....NY POST) ID#410198:
http://www.nypostonline.com/061998/business/3503.htm

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:53
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.48. The 144 day moving average is 28.64

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:53
Prometheus (@Sorry, Robby) ID#210235:
I answered the wrong question. Actual CASH on hand is not what I was answering. Actual cash on hand is lower than the 8% rate, somewhere around 2% on any given day, I believe.

Got to get Donald or SDRer online. They'll know for sure.


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:50
JP (A full scale depression in the US is a certainty NOW) ID#253153:
Copyright © 1998 JP/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A recession in the US has begun. The GM strike has created an environment for companies to lay off many employees and NOT be blame for it. This is in addition to the GM strikers and their suppliers. The Dow has entered a bear market. The top is in. With SE Asia sinking and South America on the verge of sinking, the fed has no options. NOW, it has to lower interest rates in a hurry. Folks , I submit to you that our politicians will be very scared when they see our unemployment skyrocketing next quarter and counter actions will be put in place to slow the accelerating recession. Unfortunately , it's too late and the damage
has already been done. Currency wars will continue and people will continue to lose their jobs. I was devastated by what I saw last week in Japan . It is only a matter of time before we face the same conditions here in the US.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:49
Prometheus (@Repost, because this is really news. Please check this out. ) ID#210235:
http://nt.excite.com/news/u/980622/07/business-hongkong

There has been moratorium on all land sales in Hong Kong as an effort to stem deflation out of control.

Any precedents on this? I don't recall any offhand but would be interested in any comments.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:44
FOX-MAN__A (FWIW; Latest Comex Warehouse Totals...) ID#288186:

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for June 22

-- TOTALS
Gold 998,394 - 26,324 troy ounces
Silver 87,590,432 + 164,648 troy ounces
Copper 68,457 - 2,318 short tons

N/A= Not available.
********************************************************************
Fox-Man

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:44
Strad Master (Another interesting (I hope) question) ID#250297:
ALL: Last week I asked about what someone ought to do if they won the lottery - a question that stimulated lots of interesting fanciful discussion for which I am grateful. Here's another: Which is best - to pay off one's home mortgage at an accelerated rate to try to be debt free by Jan 1, 2000 OR pay the minimum monthly payment. If Y2K hits what would be better. Gotta go - be back later for responses.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:42
EJ (Gollum: I see you didn't have a chance to get to the back room today) ID#229277:
That's ok. Maybe tomorrow.

Thanks for the advice on silver. That's my conclusion also.

-EJ

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:40
MM (Chinese Minister Hails Sino-American Relations) ID#350179:
But With Caution:
Don’t Flirt with Taiwan
http://www.abcnews.com/sections/world/DailyNews/china980622.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:36
robnoel__A (Winston...Thanks for that....Prometheus....the reason for the question,is I have it on good info ) ID#410198:
many bankers at a recent meeting were heard to voice concern that if the storys of the Y2K problem,spreads to Joe 6 pack ( not our buddy here ) they expect +- 30% of thier customers will pull thier cash.....which begs the question based on your info if they only hold 8% of cash on deposit,will this not cause a lot of panic.....plus in Feb of this year Alan Greenspan in a USA Today story said...the fed is ready to supply cash to banks in the event of a run on banks......just trying to connect the dots

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:35
JTF (US action to support Yuan) ID#57232:
pax: Perhaps the Japanese are right in doing nothing for the moment --imagine the turmoil if the Japanese did not know the Americans were indirectly supporting the Chinese Yuan by buying Yen. Perhaps BC convinced RR that he did not want a Yuan devaluation before his trip to China. Sounds like RR is getting micromanaged. I wonder how much more of this he will take before he resigns.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:28
pax (Fallout from last week's intervention) ID#227108:
Copyright © 1998 pax/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
On Thursday a week ago: Robert Rubin, The weakness of the yen reflects the economic conditions in Japan, and can only be remedied by restoring economic strength in Japan.

Then Wednesday a 10 point drop in Dollar. Robert Rubin: This morning, the Prime Minister of Japan outlined his Government's plans to restore the health of the Japanese financial system and to strengthen domestic demand. We look forward to implementation of a comprehensive action program that will create the conditions that are essential for a healthy and prosperous economy.

Friday this headline crossed the Reuters wire: Treasury's Rubin Says U.S. Not Expecting Policy Actions from Summers' Japan Trip.

Also on Friday: Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto said to me[Bill Clinton] that they were prepared to issue a statement which would be clear and specific about what they intended to do in a timely, but did not say whether it would be before or just after the parliamentary elections on July 12.

Then Dollar/Yen moved 2 yen in less than 5 minutes near closing. What a week! Can anyone guess what will happen this week?!?!?! Dow DOWN, Bonds UP to 124 again, Dollar UP, Yen DOWN, Gold DOWN. At least until mid or end of next week when a reassuring statement will be made by US/Japanese government AFTER THE US MARKET CRASHES another 300 points.

Today, the Japanese government is suggesting that because intervention was started by the U.S. in order to support the Chinese RMB it had little to do with Japan and they are not bound to take any specific action...

Such a bunch of clowns. Rubin is a clever fellow, why does he put up with such inept political intervention?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:27
JTF (Glad to hear your wife is doing fine. Logging off for chores.) ID#57232:
Gollum: Glad to hear all is well. Please look up the cardiovascular benefits of Vit E and Vit C supplementation -- she will benefit, and you as well. Lots of exciting stuff about nutrition these days -- you need to do a little digging beyond the health fad newsletters to see what is out there. Your physician may know about this.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:23
CoolJing (another scam bites the dust) ID#343171:
Copyright © 1998 CoolJing/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Monday June 22, 3:38 pm Eastern Time

SEC suspends trade in Golden Eagle Intl

WASHINGTON, June 22 ( Reuters ) - The Securities and Exchange Commission Monday suspended trade in gold mining company Golden Eagle International Inc.

because of a lack of current and accurate information concerning its securities.

Suspension went into effect at 0930 EDT on June 22 and will run through 2359 EDT on July 6, the regulatory agency said.

The SEC said questions arose regarding the accuracy and adequacy of assertions by the Denver, Colo.-based Golden Eagle and by others concerning the basis for its

claims of proven gold reserves on its Bolivian mineral concessions.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:21
jims (APH and Gene Inger) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Enjoy your discussion of the reasoning behind your trades, APH, congradulations on your latest moves in the silver and gold markets. You seem to do what is least comfortable - undoubtably necessary to make money in these two markets. I find it quite interesting the Gene Inger has turned mildly bullish. I see this as part of a developing change. Once we get APH on line after the 25th we'll have green lights abounding. Frankly, while lightly long, I'd like to see a little more dip, here, on which to add and thus hope APH is more correct in his timing that Mr. Inger. Gold and silver did steady up, they will rise if the yen appreciates at all over night.

Problem is it is hard to envision any real bull in the metals until ( a ) the Asian economies hit bottom, ( b ) there is some massive bailout, reliqufication of the Japanese banking system based on the inflow of US capital. We haven't reached either point yet.

Keep us posted APH - why is the 25th of June so significant and weren't you originally looking for a rally into the 25th?.

My take again - we are basing through summer - Gold ranges $310 - $290, Silver $5.20 - $5.50. Today on dim Yen news we approached the lower ends of hose ranges.

Where is RJ on Platinum

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:17
Strad Master (Gollum) ID#250297:
I second Retired Soldiers sentiments regarding your wife.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:15
Carl (XAU, 1 step forward, 2 steps back - is this any way to make progress?) ID#341189:
XAU at 68.2 with gold at 295.5. Last Wed. it was 70.53 with gold at 293.2.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:14
JTF (Something for you sharefin! North Korean sub caught in S Korean net.) ID#57232:
I remember a cartoon years ago about a fisherman who thinks he has caught a whale. He is terribly disappointed when he finds out it is a nuclear submarine. He wasn't able to keep it.

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980622/V000959-062298-idx.

html

Just paste the html part on the end, and you can read about the North Korean mini-sub that got caught in the net. I think the NKoreans are getting restless again.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:09
RETIRED SOLDIER (Gollum) ID#347235:
Thanks be to the Lord Our G-d, Shalom

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:08
Avalon (The next time Donald takes the day off, he must appoint someone to be LFD) ID#254269:
( Leader for the Day ) . This group has been totally unruly today !
Yawn !

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:07
Carl (@JTF) ID#341189:
Your last sentence - we don't have any savings - is exactly why we are at terrible risk for higher interest rates. Nearly everone I know thinks stocks are savings.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:04
Gollum (@RETIRED SOLDIER) ID#43349:
She's recovering nicely. She's back home now.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:04
Prometheus (@Avalon, Robnoel) ID#210235:
Yes, this is correct, if you take into account the holdings in Hong Kong. The next time I spot a reference, I'll post it.

ROBNOEL - I believe the rate for banks is 8.4%. Tried to find a recent article, within a day of the US dollar/yen intervention, about this. There was a major Japanese bank ( the largest private bank ) that had slipped to 8.2% and the bolstering of the yen was designed to prevent a major incident. Got it back to the minimum.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:01
JTF (There is one possibility) ID#57232:
Carl: What if Japan puts pressure on the US by selling more treasuries? I think right now the G-7 did not make any arrangements with Japan because they want Japan to act decisively. But perhaps the Japanese will not act decisively until they dump more of their vast assets down the black hole of debt first. It is always tempting to take the less painful way when you have a choice.

One thing about the US -- there is no way we could wait nearly 10 years to have our deflation -- we wouldn't have any options since we don't have the savings.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 16:01
Gollum (@EJ) ID#43349:
More silver.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:59
Avalon (China and U.S. Treasuries ; I read somewhere that China is the second largest ) ID#254269:
holder of Treasuries. Does anyone know if this is correct ? Any sources ? Cannot remember where I read it.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:58
Winston__A (@Robnoel) ID#244446:
Rob you had a good show today.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:56
OLD GOLD (production cuts) ID#242325:
Avalon; That article also said significant production are essential if gold prices are to rebound.. So far all we have seen is smaller planned increases. We need to go way beyond that.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:55
JTF (A sudden rise in US interest rates: gold up) ID#57232:
Carl: I agree -- something like the precursor to the 1987 market crash. It was a massive selling of US treasuries a few months earlier that caused the crash. Interest rates skyrocketed. And Gold equities doubled before getting caught in the downdraft. However, there is nothing on the horizon to even hint at a US dollar crisis.

The markets are probably not as strong this time as they were then, and the Japanese will be more cautious about selling large quantities of treasuries.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:54
HenryD (Namasté) ID#36156:
Copyright © 1998 HenryD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A male pastor walked into a neighborhood pub to use the restroom. The place was hopping with music and dancing, until people saw the pastor. As the room quieted down he walked up to the bartender, and asked, May I please use the restroom? The bartender replied, I really don't think you should. Why not? the pastor asked. I really need to use a restroom! Well, I don't think you should. There is a statue of a naked woman in there -- and she's only covered by a fig leaf! Nonsense, said the pastor, I'll look the other way! So, the bartender showed the clergyman the door at the top of the stairs, and he proceeded to the restroom. After a few minutes, he came back out, and the whole place was hopping with music and dancing again! He went to the bartender and said, Sir, I don't understand. When I came in here, the place was hopping with music and dancing. Then the room became absolutely quiet. I went to the restroom, and now the place is hopping again. Well, now you're one of us! said the bartender. Would you like a drink too? But, I still don't understand, said the puzzled pastor. You see, laughed the bartender, every time the fig leaf is lifted on the statue, the lights go out in the whole place.

Now, how about a drink?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:53
Avalon (Fidel Castro worth $ 100 Million according to this story :) ID#254269:

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/business/story.html?s=z/reuters/980622/business/stories/richest_1.html

( something ironic here ! )

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:48
Isure (Gold Stocks) ID#368244:

My stocks are beginning to go positive for the day. Hope this is a good sign.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:48
JTF (Yemen crisis - very much like Indonesia) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
MM: You don't just eliminate energy subsidies overnight to satisfy IMF requirements. We are not talking about a bank, but a living ( hopefully dynamic ) economic system. Such changes must be made gradually, so that the economic system can adjust. A 40% rise in energy cost overnight would be catastrophic in any country.

This problem exemplifies my point I made some time ago about the Gini index. The only strong economic system is one where wealth is distributed among the people. If wealth is kept by only 1% of the population, that economic system is bound to fail violently, like the fiefdoms of the middle ages, as well as numerous other historical examples throught the ages. Economies need to be opened up so that small businesses may thrive, and support a general rise in wealth so that people can afford higher energy prices. Government regulation the world over needs to be decreased, not increased. We only need enough regulation to eliminate monopolies, and make sure the basic rules of fair trade are applied.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:45
Avalon (Big is Better say Gold Miners; ) ID#254269:

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980622/markets_go_1.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:44
Carl (JTF) ID#341189:
I agree with your take on currencies. Add an additional wild card. A violent, or even not so violent reversal in the trend of US interest rates.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:38
tolerant1 (HighRise, Namaste' The idiot in the White House and the young punks in the ) ID#373284:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
state department have not got a clue about how to deal with the Communist Chinese. In the end there will be war, as to their attacking the mainland US with missles, who knows. We pet Lassie, they eat Lassie for dinner.

We should have let General M. take China so he could meet General P. for lunch in Moscow. Prez. B should have taken out Saddam...the list goes on and on and on...

More American men and women will die due to the sh_thead in the White House and the jerks in the state department...

The Coward Erect is not just a profiteering traitor in my opinion but he is a fatuous idiot as well...

Other than that...a GIANT gulp of tequila to ya!!!!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:33
JTF (Yen, Yuan(Remenbi) down, gold down) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Old Gold, LGB: I agree -- If the Yen goes into free fall, so will gold. I think Frank Veneroso may have better access than most into CB sales, but I don't think he is good at looking at the short, or intermediate term gold picture. His last June 98 post states that the hedge funds are betting that the Yen is going down -- so they are shorting the Yen and Gold. He claims that they are wrong, and that gold will go up with the Yen. In my opinion he is wrong, because there is no evidence that Japan has yet approached the only solution to their debt problem -- let the bankrupt firms fall to restore investor confidence. Gold will rise when SEAsians feel secure enough to buy it. Right now they may wish to sell some of their gold if they think Japan is falling into the abyss.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:31
robnoel__A (ASK BART ......hey BART WHAY DID YOU DO?) ID#410198:
.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:27
Avalon (Where...........................................is ........................................everyone.) ID#254269:
today ?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:14
APH (Sorry, That should have been Crystal Ball) ID#255226:
.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:12
APH (Trading) ID#255226:
Crysta Ball- We view things from a different perspective. I don't see any support for Aug Gold this week until we hit 285-290. I'll be looking to get long at the end of the week where ever prices are. I tell my self everyday my job is not to trade futures and make money but rather do everything possible to keep what I already have.
I do have breakeven stops in.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:02
Prometheus (@Currency crisis deepens by the hour) ID#210235:
http://www.newsroom.co.nz/stories/HL9806/S00115.htm

Top story in New Zealand today

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 15:01
BillD (zzzzzzzzz) ID#258427:
zzzzzzzzzzz....zzzzz..zzz..zz..z.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 14:57
HighRise (Tolerant, Clinton is in over his head!) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

I said you'll get a military reaction from the United States if China attacks Taiwan, Freeman recalled, and they said, 'No, you won't. We've watched you in Somalia, Haiti and Bosnia, and you don't have the will.' Then, according to Freeman, a senior officer added: In the 1950s, you three times threatened nuclear strikes on China, and you could do that because we couldn't hit back. Now we can. So you are not going to threaten us again because, in the end, you care a lot more about
Los Angeles than Taipei.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-06/21/178l-062198-idx.html

I remember when we sent those ships into harms way that something must be going on. It would have been a rather stupid move otherwise...and maybe was anyway.

HighRise

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 14:32
robnoel__A (Question to all.....what are the cash requirments,banks have to have on hand in relation to deposits) ID#410198:
.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 13:54
LGB (Dropping Yen = dropping Gold) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Monday June 22, 12:34 pm Eastern Time

NY precious metals lower at midday

NEW YORK, June 22 ( Reuters ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures were lower at
midday, with gold failing to recover from another battering in the yen overnight.

The dollar was stronger overnight, after the the Group of Seven meeting over the weekend
failed to instill much confidence in the struggling yen, leading to a sell-off in gold.

The dollar began to weaken throughout the morning, but consistant trade selling kept the
pressure on the gold market.

At 1224 EDT, COMEX August gold was trading at $297.20 an ounce, down $3.60 from
Friday's close, trading in a range between $295.40 to $299.00 an ounce.

In the bullion market, spot gold was $295.60/6.10 an ounce, compared to the late fix, which
was $294.75, and Friday's New York close, which was $298.50/00 an ounce.

``One of the investment banks was putting in good bids throughout the morning,'' said one
floor broker. ``But the trade were steady sellers. The weakening of the dollar seems to be
providing some support for the market. But we can't real;ly get any momentum.''

COMEX July silver was trading at $5.305 an ounce, down 4.7 cents, trading between $5.260
and $5.340 an ounce.

Spot silver was $5.31/34 an ounce, compared to the fix, which was $5.295 an ounce, and
Friday's New York close, which was $5.37/40 an ounce.

NYMEX July platinum was $357.00 an ounce, down $6.00 an ounce, while September
palladium was $286.50 an ounce, down $4.05.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 13:52
tolerant1 (Mountain Goat, Namaste' Welcome) ID#373284:
A gulp of Cuervo to ya!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 13:46
ChasAbar__A (Chinese tour-group leader) ID#340344:
Copyright © 1998 ChasAbar__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
While the markets are relatively slow, I want to take a
moment to share a thought. We are all fortunate because
we have discovered this Kitco website. It is difficult for me to
imagine a better place for people all around the world
being able to share ideas and learn from so many brilliant
and knowledgeable people, with so much wisdom. ( I am truly
honored ) . Because most of the posting is in English, and
the English used in each country is somewhat unique, and
because English is not the primary language for many readers,
I want to suggest that, when we post, we: 1 ) work a little
harder to proof-read before we submit a post. If a long word
is mis-spelled by one or two letters, I think we can all
usually figure it out. But when a mis-spelled word becomes a
different word, well, sometimes it just makes no sense. ( One
recent example was metals spelled meals. ) 2 ) Think for a
moment about some idioms you are using. I recall being on
a tour in China and the tour leader being so frustrated that
he almost cried, after members of the English-speaking group
used put it on the back burner, and I have other fish to
fry. [He said, I understand all of the words, but I do not
understand any of the meaning.] I am not suggesting that we
lower the sophistication of the writing, but I honor the
presence of posters from all languages and countries, and
I want everyone to be able to share the wisdom. Thank you.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 13:42
Mountain Goat (Hello @ ALL) ID#349183:
Copyright © 1998 Mountain Goat/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Just wanted to introduce myself to the group, and offer a hearty round
of applause to ALL of the posters here. I've lurked for several months,
and now cannot survive for long without my Kitco fix.

I probably won't post too often, as I have little to add beyond the
views of the 'man in the street', which are I suppose of some small
value. My position on gold ( and silver ) is this:

1. I'm a Database Programmer, and have been for 15 years. The Y2K bug
is very real, and there will be some moderate amount of disruption.
I'm guessing mainly in government services. I think I fall more
on the side of [Allen ( USA ) ] than [wetgold] in the great debate,
and I subscribe to the views of Ed Yardeni. ( http://www.yardeni.com )
While I don't work directly on the problem for the companies I work
with, I see their data and it ain't pretty. Changing the software
to fix the bug is one thing, going back and 'fixing' enormous
interconnected databases is another.

2. The media is in love with tragedy. Witness: OJ, Lewinski, the
Au Pair sillyness, etc, etc. Y2K is still too far off to be a 'real'
news story yet, but come 3rd or 4th quarter of 1999, this story could
become the whipping boy. Whether there are any real Y2K problems,
the media could certainly frighten the populace into withdrawing
their savings into 1st Matress National Bank.

3. There was a discussion here some weeks ago about Joe Sixpack.
I maintain that Joe Sixpack, a blue collar worker, hasn't got any
savings whatsoever... He's got 7 credit cards all red-lined.
However, Joe Microbrew, the white collar guy, has dumped all his
spare cash into mutual funds in order to achieve the 30% returns he's
grown accustomed to. ( Joe Microbrew also has 7 credit cards in
the red, by the way ) When Joe Microbrew sees the next quarterly
statement from Fidelity, Janus, or whoever, and sees that he's
LOSING money, he's going to have a conniption fit. He may even
look into other investments. Maybe. If he sees two, or three
quarters of lackluster or negative performance, he'll bail out.
He's in for the money, not the long haul. He's greedy.

4. There will be a 'market correction', and when that happens,
Mr. Microbrew will want out. Maybe not his 401k stuff, but his
retirement savings, IRAs, etc. It has to go someplace, and he's
already learned the hard way about equities and will thus be ready
to try something a bit more substantial than a piece of paper.
Will he go to PMs? Maybe. I hope so.

That's my take on the situation. Somewhere between a depression and
a recession. The average US citizen has been living so high, for
so long, mostly on borrowed money, that when the correction comes
it'll hurt much worse than it could have. So label me a pessimist
when it comes to the US and world economic picture, but be certain
to slap me with the 'goldbug' label as well!

Go Gold!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 13:40
Avalon (Quote of the day; From our very own Gollum at 8.01 this a.m.) ID#254269:

The best traders are those who can quickly form an opinion, but just as
quickly abandon it if circumstances dictate otherwise.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 13:39
tolerant1 (How wars begin, the Coward Erect is a threat to our collective future............) ID#373284:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-06/21/178l-062198-idx.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 13:35
Poorboys (yes it is) ID#227168:
Gold = Boring - Back to the lazy hazy days of summer

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 13:35
LGB (@ Today's off topic post....Dr. Spock...Meat vs. Vegan's) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Goes to show what happens when you lose objectivity and get pulled into cultic nonsense, even in your Golden years.

Dr. Spock recommends milk-free, meat-free diet in posthumous edition

Copyright 1998 Associated Press
June 20, 1998



NEW YORK -- Benjamin Spock, who revolutionized parenting for the baby-boom generation, has left behind a
pediatricians' stew by recommending a vegetarian diet devoid of dairy products after the age of 2.

Spock suggests posthumously in the seventh edition of his best-selling Baby and Child Care that kids should have a
diet free of dairy products and meat.

Children can get plenty of protein and iron from vegetables, beans and other plant foods that avoid the fat and
cholesterol that are in animal products, the book says.

The New York Times reported Saturday that many nutritionists and pediatricians -- including Spock's co-author,
Steven J. Parker -- believe the dietary recommendation from the influential pediatrician is too extreme.

Parker said Spock believed his vegetarian diet had given him a new lease on life, and that he wanted the book to be
in the forefront of linking animal foods and disease.

Spock, whose book is second only to the Bible as the best-selling book in U.S. history, died March 15 at his home in
La Jolla, Calif. He was 94.

Some of Spock's friends, including pediatrician T. Berry Brazelton of Boston, suggest that the baby guru's
final recommendations are absolutely insane.

Meat is an excellent source of the iron and protein children need, and to take away milk from children, I think
that's really dangerous. Milk is needed for calcium and vitamin D, Brazelton told the Times.

Since the first edition of Baby and Child Care was published in 1946, Spock had consistently recommended meat
and milk products for children.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 13:31
2BR02B? (@Silverbaron) ID#266105:

I picked up that same book at a three-for-a-dollar
used book sale a couple months ago. Mr. Hoppe had a number
of interesting things to say thirty years ago that have
well stood the test of time. Unlike many other things
said at the time.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 13:25
LGB (@ SilverBaron) ID#269409:
Some very prescient comments in that prophetic work. Most of what the author predicted came to pass....with the glaring exception of No selling of central bank reserves and Gold returning to it's former glory as a link to currency's ( with the exception of course of the new Euro, if you want to count a 15% ratio not locked in, as a genuine backing of the currency )

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 13:14
Silverbaron (Deja-vu, or prophecy) ID#289357:
Copyright © 1998 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I found the source of this in an antique shop over the weekend for $.25

It seems to me to be quite prophetic, regardless of being written 20 years ago in 1969. What do you think? ( my apoligies to the author, if there are typos )

bbml

************************************************************************************

The following is a quotation in its entirety from How to Invest In Gold Coins 1970, by Donald J. Hoppe.

Chapter XIV . A Look at the Future

Perhaps Keynes is more deserving of respect as a philosopher than an economist, for his more abstract reflections often reveal penetrating insights. He showed his genius, and that he was, by his ability to grasp so frequently the single vital point of seemingly obscure and chaotic situations. The Keynesian observation that introduces this final chapter goes a long way towards explaining why the Western nations have continued on such a disastrous economic course in recent years, despite the formidable lessons of history. It also provides a rather significant guide to the future course of events. Keynes himself was familiar with the propensity of politicians, bureaucrats, and academicians to accept others' ideas and speculations more on the basis of novelty than because of any capacity for critical evaluation. Shortly before his death in 1946, Keynes wrote: I find myself moved, not for the first time, to remind our contemporary economists that the classical teaching embodies some permanent truths of great significance.

Unfortunately the reminder was largely ignored; the promoters of the New Economics were not merely rejecting the classical doctrines; most were blissfully unaware of them. Spurred by ideas borrowed willy-nilly from the works of Keynes, Henry George, Norman Thomas, Dr. Francis E. Townsend, Huey Long, the Fabian Society, and other modern thinkers ( part genius, demagogue, and crackpot ) , the New Economics was launched in 1946 with the passage of the Full Employment Act in the U.S. This act, which is still the law of the land, sanctified deficit federal spending and domestic inflation as the cure for all economic and social ills. Simultaneously, the electoral triumph of the socialist Labour government ushered in a similar new era in Great Britain.

Such is the eternal optimism of man, that we can still look back after twenty years and pronounce the economic philosophy a great success, despite the ravages of an inflation that has destroyed the free economy of vast areas of the world, brought the British to their knees, and cut the value of the U.S. dollar in half. It was this peculiar myopia that prompted TIME magazine, in its December 31, 1965, cover story on Keynes, smugly to observe: We are all Keynesians now. I am not at all sure that Keynes would have entirely appreciated the compliment; Keynes himself was seldom a practicing Keynesian. But the lesson is obvious; the doctrines and practices of the New Economics will continue to effect the destiny of the Western world for some time to come. The so-called practical men of the world, the great uncritical majority of politicians, bankers, stockbrokers, business men, and economic journalists, are invariably prisoners of dogmas and doctrines not of their own devising or understanding. All too easily they accept the fatuous cliché that we will have to learn to live with inflation. Such living will prove more difficult than is generally expected.

The economic climate of the next ten years is very likely to be the most dangerous since the 1930s; the economic and political delusions that have brought us to our present sate of monetary and social disorganization are too well entrenched in the popular mind to be overcome short of complete disaster. The world's economic machinery is, in my opinion, on the brink of going completely our of control - or at least out of the control of Washington. Therefore, having written a book giving investment advice, I would be remiss if I did not conclude with a forecast of the possible events of the next decade. Some of these events will be quite shocking and unexpected; they will undoubtedly unnerve many investors and cause them mistakenly to alter or abandon sound investment programs.

First, the removal of all gold backing from the dollar and other currencies guarantees that the future will see an acceleration of inflation - but such forecasts are a dime a dozen. It will not be all that simple. There will be more inflation, far more than we have previously experienced, but it will follow an erratic and unpredictable course, whipsawing many an unwary investor. The money managers will push up and push down, alternately inflating and deflating the economy in a vain attempt to preserve the collapsing international monetary structure, to save the dollar, and at the same time to fulfill the mandate of the Full Employment Act of 1946 by pursuing an expansionist domestic monetary policy. The managers face an insoluble dilemma, and will do great damage without achieving their goals.

The next major event in the worldwide economic drama that is unfolding will probably be the complete collapse of the British pound. No matter what expedients the international bankers employ, they cannot alter the fact that virtually all the monetary reserves of Great Britain have been borrowed. Another pound devaluation is inescapable, and sooner or later the reality will have to be face that the billions loaned to England to save the pound not only will not save, it, but may never be paid back. Britain is nearly bankrupt.

The French franc is also in bad shape; the Paris riots have shaken the French middle class to the core and brought back all the bad old memories. It was de Gaulle who restored trust in the franc, and the unexpected knowledge that he was not infallible has weakened it beyond repair. The August 1969 devaluation of the franc signaled a return to the old monetary instability that had plagued France before the advent of de Gaulle.

Other wholesale devaluations ( including the dollar ) will follow the coming breakup of the world's major currencies and as a result the world will eventually turn to floating currencies; that is, currencies no longer will be defined and valued in terms of a fixed amount of gold, but will become exclusively fiat instruments, allowed to fluctuate freely in the open market - like some kinds of government bonds and Treasury bills. The price of gold may be entirely freed from monetary controls and it is quite possible that the restrictions on Americans regarding the ownership of gold may be removed, but the change may come too late for most of us to benefit from it.

The period of floating exchange rates will be a most difficult and dangerous time for the gold-coin investor - or any investor, for that matter. The price of gold will no doubt fluctuate considerably during this period, in terms of dollars and other currencies, and there will be much talk that gold will lose its value entirely. There is also a very real danger that in attempting to restrain the rampant inflation that is sure to follow the wave of devaluations, or the U.S. decision to abandon gold entirely, the money managers will push down too hard on the economy. Do not be surprised if the American economy is sent reeling into a severe recession, or even a depression, quite soon. But remember, when this happens the money managers will frantically reverse their position and stoke the fires of inflation more vigorously than ever.

Therefore, it is most important to the gold-coin investor not to react to any short-term uncertainty by selling. The world's monetary gold reserves are not going to be dumped on the free market, although your government may try to convince you that they will be. It is fair to ask, however, what will happen to these gold reserves in an era of floating currencies. Part of them will be retained as emergency funds for purposes of national security. Another part will be pledged to back some new international reserve currency created by the Common Market countries to replace the dollar. The dollar has been able to function as a reserve currency only as long as we have maintained its convertibility; a floating nonconvertible dollar will be useless for this purpose.

Neither will SDRs nor any other international fiat money be trusted by the European. The days of IMF, at least in its present form, are numbered. The Europeans may appear to play along for awhile with the present IMF arrangement and the SDR scheme, in order not to offend the powerful U.S. ally, but when the real crisis comes they will abandon IMF and set up their own fully gold-backed reserve currency. The dollar and other floating currencies ( perhaps including initially even some of the Europeans' own domestic fiat money ) will be left to float down the drain.

Other large amounts of gold will be used to back new kinds of debt instruments. Government and corporate bonds will be issued with gold clauses guaranteeing the principal and interest in them of fixed amounts of gold by weight, in order to insure the buyer against loss through inflation and devaluations. Believe me, before long that will be the only kind of bonds saleable. Other forms of international and internal financing will also be denominated in gold, as the inflationary illness rates. The U.S. itself has already started this trend by selling nonmarketable gold-guaranteed Treasury bond to the central backs of both Canada and Germany.

It will eventually become clear, even to the Harvard Economics Department and the U.S. Treasure, that gold, far from being an anachronism, is perhaps the most valued and most demanded single commodity on this earth. Many nations of the world, particularly the U.S., will then scramble to begin rebuilding their drastically depleted gold reserves. The price of gold in terms of domestic fiat currencies will soar. Perhaps in ten years or so we will have built up a national gold reserve adequate to permit a return to some system of national and international fixed exchange rates. A permanent price for gold will then be reestablised ( at a price far higher than the present ) . But much hardship will ensure in the meantime.

Inflationary eras are always accompanied by waves of social and political unrest. And this, in itself an additional economic burden, will not only continue but in all probability greatly increase in the next few years.

The eventual implosion of severe economic controls, regardless of who is president, is a certainty. Classical economic philosophy may not be resurrected for many years to com, perhaps not even in our lifetime. Governments will remain addicted to the philosophies of manipulation: political, social, international, and most assuredly economic. Indeed, we will have to learn to live with inflation, but we may at the same time have to live with business stagnation, massive social discontent, and government repression. The experience of France in the post-World War II years may to a considerable degree be repeated by the U.S.; a U.S. dollar at 1/200 of its 1940 value is not beyond the realm of possibility.

Barring a major war, the economic history of the U.S. in the next five to ten years will probably evolve along these lines:

1. Accelerating inflation: galloping price increases, massive labor unrest, crippling strikes, impossible wage settlement, staggering property tax increases.

2. Wholesale worldwide devaluations, with the pound, the franc, and the lira leading the way.

3. U.S. embargo on gold exports and refusal of all further redemptions of central bank dollar holdings. Result: de facto devaluation of the U.S. dollar in world markets.

4. U.W. action leads to : gradual worldwide abandonment of convertibility; floating exchange rates; wide fluctuations in the market price of gold; removal of all restrictions on private gold dealings; gold demonetization in the U.S. and Great Britain.

5. Collapse and breakup of the IMG; beginning of a new European Common Market gold-backed reserve currency.

6. Stringent economic restrictions imposed by the U.S.; tight money' policies resumed; partial wage and price controls begun; prime interest rates reach 10 to 15 percent.

7. Severe business depression begins in the U.S.; drastic declines in employment, stock prices, real estate, etc.; massive social unrest.

8. Panic resumption of federal deficit spending and lending, resulting in huge budget deficits - perhaps as high as $40 to $50 billion in the first year.

9. Foreign gold bonds and gold-guaranteed private debt issues appear; regular bonds and notes selling at deep discounts or virtually unsalable.

10. Only partial recovery from depression, but inflation resumes in earnest; paradoxically, purchasing power of paper dollar declines rapidly in the midst of general economic stagnation. Crime and disorder in major cities at times almost unbearable.

11. U.S. government adopts new authoritarian economic and social policies; severe wage and price controls enforced; national police fore established to assist local authorities in maintaining order and combating crime; permissive social attitudes strongly rejected by public.

12. U.S. government announces new gold policy: building of national gold reserve given first priority; all privately owned gold bullion ordered to be surrendered to Treasury at fixed price under pain of severe penalty for evasion; all gold in U.S. nationalized again ( except for gold coins of recognized numismatic value ) ; mining activity greatly stimulated by an increasing Treasury gold price, and by special grants for exploration, recovery, etc. Exports to gold-rich countries, such as Canada, South Africa, encouraged by special subsidies and government assistance.

13. National gold reserve greatly expanded; currency stabilized by a return to fixed parity with gold. New dollar established - old dollars exchanged at 10 to 1, 100 to 1, or who know what, with new dollars.

14. Great international monetary meeting to establish a new system of fixed exchange rates among major trading nations. Common market gold-certificate reserve currency adopted as new international reserve currency, resulting in a new fixed world gold price.

15. New era of international monetary cooperation begins; domestic economic restrictions eased; general prosperity resumes. But balance of power in the world substantially altered; U.S. no longer number-one trading nation - eclipsed by greatly expanded and united European economic community.

This chapter is not being written as a demonstration of psychic powers; the author claims none. I cannot and do not guarantee that all of the events I have outlined will take place, or that they will follow in the exact sequence described. But these projections are based on a long and intensive study of both economic history and human nature, and I believe they represent as accurate a view of the future as is possible to construct from that basis. There are other possibilities, of course, and they have already been mentioned in this book. The U.S. may succeed in turning the IMF into an international engine of inflation, although I believe the odds are very much against our being allowed to manage such and engine for long. We may be drawn into a major war. In either of these cases the effects in terms of inflation and the price of gold are obvious. The important thing, as I see it, is not whether these events occur exactly as forecast, but whether the investor is psychologically and financially prepared for them, or for events of a similar nature.

Nowhere in this book have I suggested or intended to suggest that gold coins should be your only investment, or even your major one. Real estate, in the form of your own home or place of business, provided that it is soundly financed and not overbought, has a place in most investment programs. Certain other business investments and some common stocks, particularly gold shares, may prove rewarding in the years to com - although I think that on the whole the stock market is greatly overbought and will be a very dangerous place for all but the most nimble speculators in the next few years. But what I do say is that a gold-coin collection, if properly accumulated, will prove to be one of the safest and most rewarding areas of investment in the foreseeable future. Admittedly gold coins are a defensive type of investment, but defending and protecting capital against the ravages of both inflation and business stagnation will be the major problem of the years between now and 1978 or so.

In any significant business downturn as a result of restrictive monetary policies, the high intrinsic-value coins will undoubtedly remain strong, but numismatic rarities will probably suffer important declines. The thing to do in this case is not to sell any of your coins, those of high intrinsic value or others, but to take advantage, to the best of your financial ability , of the opportunity to acquire rate items, particularly among U.S. gold coins. During any period of severely depressed prices, such opportunities may be of very short duration.

Another development that may cause concern to those who are not prepared for it is the possibility of wide swings in the price of gold during the period of floating exchange rates. There may be one or more sharp downward reactions, and understandably these dips may cause some anxiety among gold-oriented investors. Remember, any such occurrences should be temporary; the pressures of inflation that are a built-in part of our economic and political system should inexorably reassert themselves shortly thereafter. Look upon any gold-price reactions as opportunities to complete series such as the Mexican 50, 20, and 10 Pesos, to purchase interesting common European gold coins, or to acquire missing Eagles and double Eagles at bargain prices.

Although I think one should not in any way depend on it, it is possible that with a floating dollar and demonetized gold, the U.S. may once again permit the private ownership of gold bullion. In that event, it is possible that the availability of bar gold at or near actual intrinsic value will have a depressing effect on gold coins, which usually sell at a premium ( although that has definitely not been true in Europe ) . However, if such an effect should occur here, I believe it would be very temporary; for this reason: the inflation-scarred American public ( including some of our great corporations ) would quickly absorb all domestic supplies and production as a hedge against further inflation and debasement of our currency. As you know, we don't produce much gold in the U.S. We already are substantial net importers. Trying to buy foreign gold with inconvertible paper dollars will be an interesting experience; the net effect will be to drive the price of gold sky-high in terms of those dollars - and a rising price for bullion will certainly be reflected in a similar increase for intrinsic-value gold coins.

If I were offered the opportunity to buy bullion, I would not do it - except perhaps a small stamped ingot or two, just as a collector's item. I feel that the danger of government confiscation is just too great. It has been done before and it could be done again, without hesitation, whenever it is decided that such an action is in the national interest. A major war or a worsening of the world economic situation will certainly qualify as a sufficient emergency. In short, the precedent has been established in the U.S. that the federal government can confiscate private gold ( or silver ) bullion pretty much at will. So speculate in gold options or futures if you must ( assuming such opportunities are available ) , but I advise you to confine case purchases of the metal itself to coins. Besides, bullion has no possible numismatic value or potential; and as I've reminded you, the numismatic factor in gold investments in the form of coins is too important to ignore.

If the reader is inclined to view my 15-part scenario of future events as being somewhat on the pessimistic side, I should warn you that I feel it is the most optimistic position I can take under the circumstances. I left out the really bad parts: the very real threat of a big war in the Middle East involving the U.S., the possibility of large-scale resumption of the Vietnam conflict, or the danger of full-scale civil insurrection in some of our major cities.

It is a dangerous world we live in. We long for security and repose, but absolute security is an impossible dream and repose does not appear to be our destiny. However, as far as our financial survival is concerned, there are certain verities that seem to survive the most catastrophic adversity. The gold coin is one of them. In the last two centuries alone, several great empires have fallen into ashes; their paper currencies, their bonds, their glory, all their pledges and promises have been consumed in the flames. Little remains of those empires but the words in the history books. But their gold coins, those hat have been preserved, are now worth from five to five-thousand times their original value when issued. Surely this is a development worthy of serious investment consideration.


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 13:11
MM (Four dead in fourth day of Yemen price hike protests) ID#350179:
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0622/i_ap_0622_47.sml
Slow day...

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 13:06
MM (For first time, China closes state-owned bank for lack of capital) ID#350179:
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0622/i_ap_0622_45.sml

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 12:52
Crystal Ball (@ APH) ID#287367:
I congratulate you on your successful ( thus far ) Aug gold short. I agree with Cool Jing, gold has turned up short term, and see good support for Aug between 290 - 295, and also see this rally running up to around $310 basis August. Personally I would cover and reverse to go long Aug ~ $291. If you are convinced we are going much lower, I hope you have at least lowered your buy stop to $299. Nothing hurts more than watching a profit turn into a loss. Good luck!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 12:42
Isure (test) ID#368244:


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 12:39
CoolJing (from Inger Daily Briefing 6/22) ID#343171:
Copyright © 1998 CoolJing/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Oh; almost forgot; August Gold gave a buy this week, and actually closed above

the 40-day moving average. Again, news sensitive, but it ignored prior similar news. Resistance;

right here at 300. Support 295. Commercials are net long, but don't tell all the gold bears ( and

we're not even big gold bulls ) . Possible early 1998 low successfully tested. Now a rally to 310,

back off to 295-300 or so, and then up would be how to recognize a general continuation pattern

of an ….dare I say this ….actual uptrend.

As is more likely, the rally falters as Japan capitulates to pressure, comes down some, but not

much, then gradually stabilizes. We have considered Gold under 300 a value buy, but because of

various central banks sporatic ( and hardly predictable ) selling sprees ( something that didn't exist

in the pre-free Russia days, we haven't had any interest in playing it.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 12:38
Crystal Ball (@ J) ID#287367:
Your comment about making deposits in pork bellies gave me a laugh. Reminds me of the Bud advert where the lizard says, Dead moths and dragonflies, that's my currency. When I had a parrot, he used to make deposits on my shoulder all the time. :- )

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 12:26
J (High Rise: Yen as true currency for Gold) ID#174239:
As somone pointed out last week, it is all relative. You could just as reasonably say that Gold is the true currency for Yen, and oil is the true currency that US$ track. Since I get paid in US$ I think of that as the true currency that everything else rises and falls around. If I start getting paid in pork bellies, then that will be my constant that all other currencies and commodites rise and fall against. ( Though I'm not sure if the bank will let me make a deposit. )


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 12:23
OLD GOLD () ID#242325:
DEJ: Could not agree more.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 12:19
DEJ (USA Gold) ID#270236:
Copyright © 1998 DEJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Old Gold: I think you are right for the short-run: a Chinese
devaluation would be negative for gold. However, a Chinese devaluation
and Asian collapse would force the Fed to bail-out the entire global
financial system with lower U.S. short rates. This would be bullish
for gold ( long-run ) not just because of the inflationary consequences but because
it would tend to reduce the gold supply by discouraging forward selling,
central bank dishoarding and the gold-dollar carry trade. Lower interest
rates have this effect by reducing the spread between spot gold and the
futures and lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold vs. interest-
bearing dollars

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 12:10
snowbird (APH--You did not screw us up by trying to help us!) ID#290336:
Your comments are always valued and appreciated. You are giving us the same information that you use for your own investments. What more could you do than to give us your best information in this timely fashion? We need more unselfish individuals willing to share information as you do! Thanks for your honesty.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 12:10
OLD GOLD (USa Gold) ID#242325:
DRJ: My problem is not so much with their forecast of a Chinese devaluation ( although I think not now that US realizes the consequences ) , but rather with the idea that such a devaluation would be bullish for gold. The long-run impact might be bullish if it accelerated the demise of the current global monetary regime. But the short-term impact would be very bearish for POG.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:57
Prometheus (@Hey, Tolerant1) ID#210235:
a gulp at ya!

What the heck? When we were partying one evening a few years back in a very mixed ( globally ) crowd, we discovered that just about everything you could say has been used as a sexual innuendo somewhere by some small group. Why women's breasts alone could enjoy their own lexicon! Cheers!


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:57
LGB (@ Old Gold, re USA Gold) ID#269409:
Any bogus argument to pitch his coins eh? The irony is, Numismatic Gold is going up fast, but not for ANY of the reasons Kosares chats about...

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:55
LGB (For you Y2K buffs) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
SHOCKING RUSSIAN RESPONSE TO YEAR 2000 COMPUTER
PROBLEM
June 22,
1998
 
It is relatively common knowledge that Russia is way behind the West in dealing with the millennium
bug or Year 2000 computer problem that could disrupt life for almost everyone when the calendar turns
on Jan. 1, 2000. Wired News today reported that Russia's Atomic Energy Ministry has said that it will
defy orders from the Russian Prime Minister to prepare for the coming millennium problem by saying
that it will not even begin to fix its computers until there really is a problem. Spokesman Vladislav Petrov
told the Associated Press, We don't have any problems. We'll deal with the problem in the year 2000.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:53
Prometheus (@Are you scared yet?) ID#210235:
Analyst calls this the fear stage in natural resource stocks. Recommends some buys.

http://www.forbes.com:80/asp/redir.asp?/forbes/98/0615/6112198a.htm

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:51
DEJ (Chinese Devaluation.) ID#269191:
USA Gold is probably right if one assumes that the U.S. will do nothing
to prevent the Chinese from devaluing. The intervention prooves that
the U.S. is very aware of the deflationary impact of a Chinese devaluation and will do whatever it can to prevent the complete Asian
collapse that would result from such a devaluation.

My guess is that we can look for more joint intervention and if that
fails a cut in short-term U.S. interest rates with the inflationary
consequences be damned.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:49
Prometheus (@No land sales in Hong Kong until next April) ID#210235:
as Government tries to stop deflation.

http://nt.excite.com/news/u/980622/07/business-hongkong

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:44
RETIRED SOLDIER (@ Gollum) ID#347235:
Hope your wife is much better. You hav not said. Shalom

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:43
Prometheus (@Yeltzin plays his trump card. ) ID#210235:
Give me money or you'll have to deal with them. The problem is, will it work? The parallels between Germany in the 20's depression and Russia today are more than skinhead deep.

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100f.htm

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:39
Monkee Person (Like Searle said...) ID#288105:
a long while back: Not until that USD comes down.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:33
OLD GOLD () ID#242325:
Glad I hedged my recent small PM fund purchases with long-term treasuries. Bonds up, gold stocks down. But a major reversal due soon methinks.

USA Gold today arguesd that China will devalue and this will he bullish for POG. Don't know what they have been smoking lately -- must be strong stuff.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:33
Avalon (Japanese Banks in Deep .(........................................) (You fill in the blanks).) ID#254269:

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980623/world/world1.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:30
MM (Greet = great?) ID#350179:
Hope and confusion great new Bosnian currency
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/062298/world33_10938.html
dinars & marks, but no gold : (

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:27
HenryD (EJ - Errr...) ID#36156:
fair amount is an imponderable measure to say the least. Just the same, I'd go with Gold, but not for all of the valid reasons; instead because silver is such a pain in the butt to store. On an ounce-for-ounce basis Gold is more convenient to hold ... same could be said for Plat.

Of course, I'm sure you're asking in terms of which metal has the most immediate upside potential. For that, I'd be interested to hear what the experts say.

HenryD ( back from the Gold store... )

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:27
MtHighNC (LOL...HighRise/Gold,Yen) ID#347239:
Hmmmm....I was thinking exactly the same thoughts...tell me it is not true!!LOL

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:26
HighRise (Avalon) ID#401460:

It would appear that, everything drifts with the Yen.

HighRise

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:24
HighRise (Gold / Yen) ID#401460:

As the Yen goes down so does Gold.
Is Gold valued in Yen?
Is Yen the true currency of real value?
If so, what is the US$ really worth?
Is Gold valued in Yen and Oil valued in US $?

HighRise

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:23
Avalon (Currency Question ; @ Anyone; when you have these currencies drifting and ) ID#254269:
dropping like the Aussie and Canadian dollars, is that equivalent to an
interest rate drop or increase in that local currency ? And what is the corrleation between the two ? Thanks for any insight .

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:16
Avalon (Aussie dollar drifts with the Yen ) ID#254269:

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980622/world/world1.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:14
EJ (errrr... last post @Gollum) ID#45173:
But while I'm posting again anyway, I have a question. If you already had a fair amount of gold and a lesser amount of silver and you were convinced that PMs were pretty well bottomed out and ready to rock, would you buy more gold or more silver? My inclination now is to get more silver.
-EJ

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:13
HighRise (OIL) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

CL Q8
August Crude Oil Light
1358
+41
+3.1
1365
1328
55.1K
________________
HighRise

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:08
EJ (Toldja it'd be a bore) ID#45173:
If you're bent on making it more interesting, go ahead and crank a few levers, if you must. But don't unplug anything. And PLEASE don't trip over that heap of gold coins and send it down the stairwell again.
-EJ

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:07
Donald (Indian rupee at record low this morning.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980622/india_us_s_1.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:06
chas (Hopeful & Henry D Re moratorium) ID#342315:
I get the picture. I was headed to the creek, but the weather report says t-storms and you don't want to be in the water when the lightening strikes up in the mountains. Guess I'll have to play awhile, straddling anything in sight ( stocks & commodities ) Thanx for the perspective, Charlie

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 11:02
Donald (Canadian dollar at record low this morning.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980622/canada_dlr_1.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 10:58
HenryD (chas (KITCO posts) ) ID#36156:
Charlie; They're all out buying physical.

Hmmmm, what the hell am I doing here?!?

See ya.

HenryD ( on my way to the Gold store... )

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 10:58
HopeFull (-----chas----) ID#402148:
I agree, everyone is frozen in the headlights right now...stocks, bonds, commodities.

All traders are hungover and in sugar shock from overindulgence in the summer festivities over the weekend.

The mainstream conventional wisdom pounds the deflationary story like a jungle mail service...brainwashing all. A consensus is rarely right.


HB


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 10:56
Gollum (@EJ) ID#35571:
This is one of the quietest dullest most lackluster days I have ever seen even for a Monday. I swear if things don't liven up pretty soon I am going to go back there and pull one of those levers.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 10:50
HopeFull (KITCO is spot price.....) ID#402148:
the other quotes you cite are the month that futures traders are currently actively trading, aka, the AUGUST contract.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 10:46
chas (KITCO posts) ID#342315:
Is anybody getting on?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 10:45
Sniper (Gold Price) ID#210220:
CBS MarketWatch = 297.3, CRB Bridge = 297. Why is Kitco chart showing
slightly less than 295

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 10:44
LGB (Gold Market) ID#269409:
Given the poor showing in Gold shares at the end of last week, in the face of the one day Dead Hepcat Bounce, ....and given that you probably couldn't have more positive news for Gold that that which came out of France re European CB selling ( lack of plans thereof ) .... and given that G7 has delivered little or no news of import......and given that POG is now precipitously falling once again, I can only say;

ASB ASB ASB

With very poor prospects for change to ASB anytime soon.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 10:20
Gollum (@MoReGoLd ) ID#35571:
True. Of course, it's been a twenty year blip.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 09:58
MoReGoLd (@SPIN SPIN SPIN: The yen is the hinge pin, one dealer said. ) ID#348129:
Since when does Gold depend on any one currency for life? Although the US dollar has had an impact in recent years, this is only a small blip in history. The financial spin doctors will have the fools believing that the wind direction will dictate the price of Gold.......

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 09:57
Avalon (Hong Kong in crisis ; ) ID#254269:

http://www.abcnews.com/sections/business/DailyNews/hongkong980619/index.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 09:57
Gollum (@HopeFull ) ID#35571:
I agree. So do, I think, the yen bears. They have to be cautious in testing Rubins resolve. They got busted in the chops pretty heavy last
time. I bet the volume won't be very heavy as they approach 140 levels.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 09:56
John Disney__A (China and the Yen) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
For JIN
I think the yen will continue to soften in fits
and starts with several interventions along the way.
Target 155 to 160.
I have no idea anout the Chinese. They could simply
float their currency and see what happens. Maybe the
market has already set its level.
These moves .. the yen anyway.. would be disinflationary.
But things change .. and quickly. The subsequent move
would be dollar weakness.
Despite all the hubbub about rates .. I just dont
think they are that important. The problem is demand ..
and in Asia mainly .. I think the key there is China ..
and next Japan ( not that much of a consumer really ) ..
I really think these two countries will come through
ok. If not .. then there will be a lot of trouble.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 09:24
6pak (Competition is GOOD @ Why is the Competition asking for Bail-outs, from America?) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Talks end Sunday with no settlement

FLINT, Mich. ( AP-CP ) -- As the United Auto Workers began gathering in Las Vegas for a week-long conference, the stalemate continued here in talks between the UAW and General Motors.

With a market share of only 31 per cent, the world's largest automaker says it has too many workers in too many plants.


The competition is getting better at a faster rate, Joseph Phillippi, a senior analyst for Lehman Brothers Inc., told the Detroit News for a story Sunday.

Every day, you have to get more competitive on the shop floor to even hope to stay even with the competition.

For the UAW, which has lost 550,000 members in the past two decades, it is imperative to prevent further erosion of its membership base.

When Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler Corp. downsized in the 1980s, the UAW was unprepared, said Sean McAlinden, manager of economic studies for the University of Michigan's Office for the Study of Automotive Transportation.

Those workers who were laid off disappeared into nothingness -- they got nothing, he said.

http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.GM-Strikes.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 09:23
Avalon (Nick@ C; Good morning mate !. Your It's a Pity should be one of those ) ID#254269:
must reads every several weeks or so. Good stuff. Discipline and
patience are so hard to have sometimes.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 09:18
2BR02B? (@POG) ID#266105:


http://www.globalserve.net/~djb/shit.gif

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 09:10
Chrisophilos (Buy Gold!) ID#277302:
The Arab is about to shock the monkey out of its deflationary slumber.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 09:05
HopeFull (GOLLUM....YEN....) ID#402148:
Rubin already has YEN bears set up. Took pressure off the shorts and has them go long on close on Friday, let them regain confidence today, then as YEN/$ creeps over 140, WHAM, busted again.


HB

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 09:02
EJ (Gollum: if you keep up your accuracy at this DOW prediction thing) ID#45173:
you might see me shorting DOW index funds.
-EJ

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 08:53
downunder__A (EJ, Gollum) ID#27341:
NO NO, BUY ON THE DIPS, +50.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 08:36
Gollum (@EJ ) ID#35571:
I agree. My elves tell me the DOW will close down about 180 today, but
the tend to be pessimistic lately.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 08:27
EJ (Gollum: DOW will behave much as the Nikkei did today) ID#45173:
and as the DOW did thurs last week, without distinct direction or enthusiasm. It may close lower as more revised earnings reports come out. I feel that the direction of the DOW is downward for the foreseeable future, that we're in a bear market. PMs? As you have said, down too until the dollar heads into a sustained downward trend.
-EJ

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 08:23
G-Nutz (Freemen linked to gold, silver.) ID#433143:
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980620/V000886-062098-idx.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 08:16
ravenfire (Nick@C -- love your comments) ID#333126:
hehe...

I for one intend not to be one of those classified in your category of ex-goldbug ... I might miss a good stop loss or two, but I think I'll skip on the selling bit ... until the masses start buying gold at ridiculous prices ( now, what's $850 plus 18 years of inflation? ) ... with suitable profit taking along the way, i suppose.

timing is everything. only losers ... well, losers don't belong. :- )



Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 08:13
chas (MJPL re flight suits) ID#342315:
In fighter aircraft ( '53 ) the only thing the flight suit caught was barf. I never had a problem with that, there was an item called a piss tube- if you could reach it, but you had to unbuckle the chute straps. If you messed up the plane, you had to clean it. Lots of fun

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 08:12
Gollum (As we are now) ID#35571:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Given no new positve news from Japan this weekend, the markets are reverting to a classic cat and mouse game as the dollar slowly rises
against the yen to test if at some point the US/BOJ will once again
intervene. If the yen/dollar rises to much above the point of the last
intervention without anything happening it will be taken as a sign that
the last one was just a one shot affair and the metals prices will tank
again. If there comes another intervention it will be taken that there
is a cap on the level to which the yen/dollar can rise and prices will
tend to stabilize. Without any more proactive moves to solve the Jappan
delimma, however it is difficult to forsee any prolonged rallies in the
the PM markets, although some moderate action will most likely occur in
the case of another short lived intervention.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 08:01
Gollum (Nick@C(it's a pity)) ID#35571:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
There was a psychologist one time who put about two dozen test subjects
together in a room. He had a picture projected up on to a screen that
was completely out of focus. Even though there was no way to tell what
it was a picture of, he had them each write down on a piece of paper
thier best guess of what it might be. Then he would bring the picture
slightly more into focus and have them make another guess.

Eventually the picture would become so well into focus that anyone who
had been out in the hall all this time could come walking in and easily
and immediately see what it was a picture of...but no one in the room
knew what they were looking at!

The mind is of such a nature that it will form preconcieved ideas of what
a situation might be before it has enough evidence to make a completely
valid conclusion. Then as more data becomes available it will actually
distort it's way of percieving things so as to fit it's preconcieved
notions. It will ignore or underplay the significance of non-supporting
evidence and exagerate the significance of supporting data.

The mind has evolved in this way for millions of years. It is a survival
feature. Back in cave man days the guy who took off running as soon as
he saw a hint of stripes up in a tree lived longer than the guy who had
to go up and feel the claws and see the teeth.

But preconcieved ideas can kill a man in combat or break him in trading.
The Samurai had a saying that the man least afraid to die would be the
one to live. In evaluating markets for the sake of financial gain it is
the man least afraid to be wrong who will eventually win all the marbles.

The best traders are those who can quickly form an opinion, but just as
quickly abandon it if circumstances dictate otherwise.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 07:59
APH (Silver & Gold) ID#255226:
If you saw my post from Friday I reversed my silver longs purchased at 5.10 and sold at 5.43 and went short. It became apparent my original projections of 5.80 then 5.60 were not going to be met in this time frame. I hope I didn't screw you up. For this week I'm looking for mostly down But I'm looking to get long both gold and silver by Fri 6/26 +/- one day for a rally into the end of July. Any purchase of Dec Silver under 4.90 should be a good one, I'll have a better handle on price by the end of the week. I'm also short Aug. Gold at 300. Keep buy stops above Fridays highs.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 07:40
Carl (N Korean spy sub caught in fishing nets? ) ID#341189:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980622/korea_nort_1.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 07:33
Nick@C (Indonesian sovereign debt no problem...) ID#386245:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980622/indonesian_1.html

G'day/g'nite Carl. Keep up the good work. The above will have to serve as the joke of the day.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 07:27
Carl (Nick@C) ID#341189:
I think Donald must be away, so we must make do.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 07:25
Nick@C (Would Donald's missus...) ID#386245:
...please kick him out of bed!!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 07:24
Carl (deflation talk on Wall Street - amazing how fast the common wisdom changes) ID#341189:
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980621/ticker_tal_1.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 07:22
Nick@C (Japan sets bad loan plan timetable...) ID#386245:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980622/japan_econ_4.html

Almost time to go long the Nikkei

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 07:19
Carl (target 142 dollar/yen by end of week) ID#341189:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980622/dlr_kicks__1.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 07:15
Carl (Summers offers US help to Indonesia) ID#341189:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980622/indonesia__1.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 07:14
Nick@C (China affirms no devaluation...) ID#386245:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980622/china_econ_1.html


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 07:11
Carl (OPEC to meet - same old same old) ID#341189:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980622/oil_opec_1.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 07:08
Carl (IMF - give us more money - just in case) ID#341189:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980622/imf_says_m_1.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 07:01
Carl (Morning PM commentary from Europe) ID#341189:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980622/markets_pr_1.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 06:51
jims (Great Nick, re your its a pity) ID#252391:
So right on - I'm just thinking the deflation thing is getting a little over played vs. the potential not to warrent at lease some long position.

We'll you at $250, too.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 06:40
jims (Looks like the XAU was right ...) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
not to have rallied on Friday. Its very quiet out there. Seems we are all prepared for the inevitable decline in metal related investments - unless one is short. I'll venture ( and in fact am ) the complacency is misplaced and that it should be the shorts that are worried not the longs.

There's damer being overly exposed to the dollar and its strenght as was witnesses last week. The Japanese banks will be saved with American dollars providing a new asset base following the liquidation of the bad loans. The banks will again have the capital to lend, dollars will flow from America to Japan, Japanese interest rates will be allowed to rise and the yen/dollar/spreads will be reversed. Economies of Asia will reflate and the metals will rally. I believe the meals are beginning to anticipate this happening and will be met with sufficent investor demand to offset the hedge fund and small speculator on balance short selling. In fact, the weakest shorts and the big hedge funds, quickest to change direction will be trapped by committed longs. The rally that ensues will cause the lease program to become unraveled for gold and silver which will add tremendous fuel to a fire being rekindled by new investor demand for appreciating investments.

Unless there is an unepected scare thrown into the precious metal markets they will toss about until the end of the summer.

If Japan doesn't make meaningful changes along the lines of refinancing their banks and writting off bad debts or at least restructuring them, Japn may collapse under the weight of a paralyzed banking system at which time American Dollars will become the currency of Japan with the Fed in charge of the Japanes banks. America will have to act to reflate Japan and keep it operating if the Japanese do nothing themselves into a economic gridlock and paralysis. The explosion in US money supplie occuring in support of the yen or final catostrophic infusion will raise the metals.

Japan is at a crossroads. American banks and American dollars ( and the American taxpayer and saver ) will resue the Japanese from their own intrascience and corrupt financial system where money was lent carelessly and the system is still trying to deny it and not repend and take its tremdous losses - American bankers will own Japan..probably in the company of wealthy Off Shore and On Shore Chinese.

Maybe not today or this month but soon gold and silver will rise because of this repudiation of debt and a failed financial system.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 06:38
Goldbug23 (Nick @ C) ID#432148:
Unfortunately your analysis of many gold investors is on the botton, it applies to many investors in a down market. Will apply when the Dow goes into a sustained slump. The element of patience is, lost on many, and is totally lost to those on the margin. Well said and could be a good education for many new to the markets. Most of us have to learn it thru ( losses ) , however :- (

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 06:16
Nick@C (It's a pity...) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...that many goldbugs are not going to make any money on gold shares, even when the POG goes ballistic. Here's why:

Goldbugs have been buying shares in a falling market. All but the traders and short sellers are now losing money. The average investor/goldbug only goes long. Most goldbugs are holding shares bought at higher, and in some cases MUCH higher prices. The thinking goes like this--
1 ) Gonna buy some gold shares. Will make a fortune!!!
2 ) Price declines 10%.
3 ) Oh *#+&!!
4 ) I'll just wait. Prices will go up soon. The guys on Kitco said they would.
5 ) Price declines another 10%.
6 ) *&#@!!!!!
7 ) They couldn't possibly go any lower. Badly oversold. I'm buyin' more!!
8 ) Price declines another 10%
9 ) #*%*&%#@#&*!!!!!!!!!!!!!
10 ) Jeeez, people are talking about a depression. Maybe I oughta sell!
11 ) POG declines some more.
12 ) I am a waste of fresh air--totally useless--nobody loves me--I'll never be any good at this--coulda bought a new Mercedes with what I've lost--some Kitco guy said to use stop losses--gee, I'm dumb--where's that gun of mine--nah, waste of a good bullet--hey, Veneroso says gold's gonna go up soon--maybe--any day now--what the hell--I better start selling.
13 ) I'll sell a third now before the POG hits 250.
14 ) Jeeez, gold's goin' up!!
15 ) Better sell another third--QUICK!! POG ALWAYS goes down again.
16 ) I was right , it HAS gone down again--just a bit.
17 ) Better sell the lot!!! I've only lost 40%. Coulda been worse. Now I'll just watch those Kitco suckers suffer while the POG tanks. Bustards!!! IF IT WASN'T FOR THEM I NEVER WOULDA BOUGHT GOLD SHARES IN THE FIRST PLACE. It's that Nick@C's fault!! Jeeez, I feel relieved. NO GOLD SHARES AND NO GOLD. Boy am I gonna sleep well tonight!!! Gonna buy Microsoft tomorrow!!

18 ) Jeeez, Yen and Nikkei and gold are soaring!!$$ down!!
19 ) Gold up 20 bucks!! Suckers!! Won't last.
20 ) Who ever heard of Azerbaijan!! What nuclear bombs!!!!Why is Japan selling $$$? Why is gold up 50 bucks
21 ) Gold 450!!!! Jeeeeezzz, if ONLY I had those shares, they woulda been worth--oh *#&@!!
22 ) Gold 600!!!! ABX $125!!! I'M GONNA BUY SOME GOLD SHARES!!!!!!




RULES FOR EX-GOLD BUGS ( TO BE )

1 ) Always buy gold/shares in a declining market.
2 ) Never use stop losses.
3 ) Believe everything you read on Kitco.
4 ) Buy only the shares mentioned by the Kitco 'experts'.
5 ) Buy more as prices decline.
6 ) When gold gets to multi, multi-year lows and everyone starts talking about deflation and gold 250 or lower---start selling your gold/shares.
7 ) Make sure you have sold all of your gold/shares and totally capitulated by the time the US$$/bonds start going down.

You can now relax--the pressure is off--you have confirmed that you are a loser, which is, after all, what you wanted in the first place.

......................

For those having their morning java, remember it is 'happy hour' down under. This is payback for all the late night Canank-time posts we have to read!!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 05:28
downunder__A (()) ID#27341:
the unexpected may come from the russkies.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 04:54
downunder__A (EJ-02:33) ID#27341:
i left town after my post, yep,tolerantl is the winner today.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 04:47
John Disney__A (bounce .. what bounce ?) ID#24135:
newtron..
if there were a bounce .. which I
rather doubt .. I suspect Harmony
would respond the better of the two.
I doubt if rangold will do anything
until Siama is shining and thats July
earliest and rather independent of the
gold price I think.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 03:25
newtron (JP YEN support & deflation ) ID#335184:
Also couldn't the USG just print the USDs or foment the electrons to buy Yen in which case it's inflationary for USD & deflationary for Japan ?


Y.O.S.


TAR BABY

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 03:05
newtron (JP & Jiant Mouse) ID#335184:
Copyright © 1998 newtron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I am not familiar with the mechanism used by USG that you describe, but it seems to me that the opposite is true. The end result is to make the USD more available & the Yen more scarce & prescious to the market.
When the USG buys Yen they may raise the dough as you describe,
which is obviously deflationary, but they in turn put these USD's right
back in play when they buy YEN, a wash. OTOH, they are buying the Yen & adding them to the USG reserves which reduces the supply of Yen in circulation: Deflationary for the Yen & neutral for the USD. A lower USD would raise the cost of imports which would increase the CPI.

Dear Jiant Mouse,

RR can't set price of the Yen for any extended time, but he can spill so much speculative blood with but little powder that the dogs can be kept at bey until the Japs have had a chance to reform their line & counter-attack with meaningful reforms after their July elections.
RR has made it clear that the USG will only coordinate if these reforms are made ( this is actually a bluff as the US can't take more than a few months of increasing trade imbalance before all hell brakes out on the trade front anyway ) , in the meantime, RR has inflicted a vicious blow to the hedge fund speculators ( Fortunes have been lost this week by the Yen Bears ) & left in it's wake a big cloud of what all markets hate, uncertainty ! RR will wack them again when they are most vulnerable until he is convinced that the Japanese won't deliver on reforms wherein as you say the USD will rise through the roof & the POG will suffer terribly.
It is a terrible thing to believe that all this & all AU Bug futures depend on the Japanese Gov. to do the right thing, but some how I don't believe RR would have intervened without some assurance the Japanese banking & financial system would reform.
RR knows that no GOVT. intervention has any long term hope for success unless the fundamentals are mixed or headed in the right direction. Clinton's remarks indicated that there was not going to be a pre-announced time table for action meaning I believe that it will be handled after the Japanese election & to allow the Japanese to save face by appearing to be in charge of the timing of their internal affairs.
OTOH, if this is just a knee jerk response to Chinese pressure, a summit showboat move so Clinton won't have to deal with the issue in the face of the Chinese & the Japs don't do an RTC on their system, then it's Terminator II meltdown & duck & cover for all precious metal fans such as yours truly.
John, if we do get a bounce, what is your opinion of the best short term trading vehicle, Harmony, Rangy, other ?
My guess is that we will not get a tradeable bounce for PM & PM stocks until Japan succeeds or fails on announcing real reforms.If they are not meaningful, I am exiting all PM positions & shorting the XAU.

Y.O.S.


TAR BABY

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 02:46
JIN (John Disney....your views towards yen and reminbi!thanks!) ID#206358:
John Disney,

It would be great if you can kindly shared your views about the yen and reminbi toward the Asia/Global markets?
1 ) Stong/weak yen effect the markets?
2 ) Reminbi devalueation/stand still?

Thanks,
JIN

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 02:42
Mike K__A (EJ, Nikkei up 41) ID#153283:
Try http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/asia.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 02:33
EJ (downunder: Do you know where the Nikkei closed?) ID#45173:
Yahoo seems to be stuck again. How'd you do with your +400 bet? I guessed open slightly down but I made no guesses on the close. tolerant1 guessed open down but close up. I think he got it right. Cheers.
-EJ

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 02:18
downunder__A (Nikkie monday) ID#27341:
anyone seen a shirt? it cost about 259, this is not a good result all things considered,leave town now.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 02:14
MJPL (Rack) ID#153111:
Rack! Americans live through the 19th century tax free for the most part! The consitution prohibited a pol-tax which was a tax from Europe on all those who breathed the Kings oxygen. The income tax was present during the Civil War, but that was a tempory emergency tax, after the CW it was declaired unconsitutional. Not until 1913 was the income tax amement ratified.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 02:13
John Disney__A (Japan ..) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
For George ..
Yeah .. the mystery of the East .. Japanese retail
prices .. They have HIGH marketing/distribution cost.
To call them HIGH is absurd .. they are unbelievable.
But its not inflation .. its just high prices. I dont
think they are getting higher.
Also the marginal cost of seafood in Japan is much
higher than the Alaskan cost.. and thats what will
set the price for the whole market .. not the great
deal they got on some crabs from Alaska.
But along those lines .. I think the huge difference
in the price of things in Japan vs the USA will someday
force the yen to lower on a puchacing price parity
basis.
The failure of the G-7 to support the yen was in
the cards .. how can they do it .. they would only
set themselves up for the speculators to rip them
apart. The market will set the Yen exchange rate ..
not Rubin.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 02:07
SlingShot (missinglink) ID#105111:
Copyright © 1998 SlingShot/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Hey! Are you one of the Sasquach George_A refers to in his Sun Jun 21 1998 21:25 post?

It's possible for government service to be noble. Not all the 'crats are morons out to do nothing for big $ and majestic benefits the rest of us don't have access to ( remember when federal employees were only wage earners not required to sign up for FICA? ) . Some are genuinely trying to perform a vital public service, and to perform it well.

Most firefighters are simply professional heroes. The Center for Disease Control does a fine job and is admired by all people everywhere. I could go on.

Those who lie about the facts ( like the so-called cancer researchers who helped the tobacco industry perpetrate the lie that the smoking-cancer connection was unproven ) in the process of serving profit are NOT serving the public. I've been asked to lie a couple of time, myself, in the name of profit. So it's all relative.

Oh well, it's been fun, but I gotta go to bed. See ya.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 02:05
Rack (Slingshot-I am sure you are right about) ID#411163:
there being no income tax's in the begining as you make me remember. The country's total income came from tariffs as you stated.
The Constitution only allowed taxation on the people on an equal basis ( so much a head ) then they went to the graduated tax. I wonder what they will think of next to tax?


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 02:01
MJPL (Money = Monkey Business) ID#153111:
Any one who has ever read anything about the Founders of the American Consitution know's that they were paranoid of big government and so wanted it as weak as possible, to do that they intended to keep it poor. Yes tax was limited to tariffs and users fees.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:52
MJPL (After further thought on strat's comments) ID#153111:
Copyright © 1998 MJPL/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I reread strat's post about government give aways again and I have to differ on what he has to say about give aways on government land as far as mining and lumber are concerned. That land is not really the governments it belongs to the American People unless it is used for a specific purpouse like a missile range.

What did the government do to entitle Washington to get a piece of the action if someone on there own does the leg work to find minerals on public land? Payed for the 7th Calvary to make it safe for civilization 100 years a go? Is there some holding cost the boys in DC have to recoup for holding desert? Should not the income tax gained from high paying mining jobs be compensation enough for D.C. and the states?

Stupid laws taxing actual mineral exploration success is the stuff of the Third World and Bolsheviks Government. Laws like that make the creation of wealth more difficult for everyone.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:50
SlingShot (RACK) ID#105111:
Copyright © 1998 SlingShot/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Original country had no income tax, nor was there a head tax ( I thought I was taught that that was because the capitation tax clause prohibited that, but maybe I was hung over that day ... ) . Most U.S. gov't income was from tariffs and domestic fees, as I recall.

Basic idea of progressive income tax is not to overburden the poor. Best argument I've heard points out how the more money you have, the more government services you benefit from ( I'm not sure I agree with that, but let it stand for now ) .... so the more you should have, the more you should give. My complaint is that this very compelling argument is not used to persuade the wealthy to give more .... it's used to excuse using the power of government to TAKE more from them.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:46
themissinglink (Slingshot) ID#373403:
Tell your friends and relatives who feel that persuing their trade in private industry is selling out because they would be serving profit instead of the people that in a capitalist society those who trade in private industry for profits ARE serving the people.


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:42
JIN (G7 AND YEN!News from bt..!) ID#206358:
Copyright © 1998 JIN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Yen set to renew drift in
absence of G-7 pledge

Japan cornered into reform pledge but no G-7 accord
reached on support foryen

By Anthony Rowley


INANCIAL markets are unlikely to react positively this
week to the outcome of Saturday's meeting in Tokyo of
G-7 deputy finance ministers and their Asia Pacific
counterparts, and the yen is expected to renew its downward drift.

While cornering Japan into
giving commitments to
accelerate financial system
reform and economic
expansion, the meeting
produced no overt agreement
on concerted foreign exchange
market strategies among G-7
and Asian nations in support of
the yen.

US Deputy Treasury
Secretary Lawrence Summers
declared at the weekend that
foreign exchange markets will
be watching carefully what
happens in Japan after the
emergency joint meeting of the G-7 and the so-called Manila
Framework group of Asia Pacific states.

Yet his own boss, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, had earlier
cautioned against expecting any immediate results from Japan's
commitment to reform.

The yen appears likely to show fresh weakness while markets
await new Japanese initiatives.

What could have underpinned the yen in the meantime would have
been an explicit commitment by the G-7 to support a repeat of last
week's impressive joint foreign exchange market intervention by the
US and Japan -- along with agreement by the more reserve-rich
Asian nations to make at least a symbolic contribution to yen
support.

The only reported overt indication of support for the yen so far had
come only from Hongkong. In an interview in Saturday's
Hongkong Standard, Hongkong Monetary Authority chief
executive Joseph Yam said Hongkong is prepared to intervene to
prop up the yen to help avert a global currency crisis. If we are
invited to participate in any scheme we would consider it.

But Saturday's gathering in Tokyo, both because of its relatively
short ( four-hour ) duration and the status of its participants, was
able to produce only vague agreement to monitor developments
( in foreign exchange ) and to cooperate as appropriate.

Japan's financial vice-minister for international affairs, Eisuke
Sakakibara, claimed that this was new language and Mr
Summers argued that the language speaks for itself.

However, a senior Japanese financial official indicated to BT that
concerted intervention involving Asian countries as well as the US,
Japan and Europe to influence the yen-dollar rate would be difficult
to coordinate on an ad-hoc basis. The idea put forward by Japan
last year for an Asian Monetary Fund to provide standing funds for
such intervention had been squashed, making regional intervention
more difficult, he indicated.

Dealers expect the US to intervene again only if the yen shows
signs of falling decisively below 140 against the dollar. Some
analysts believe that even this unwritten understanding cannot be
taken for granted after President Bill Clinton's visit to China this
week is over.

Mr Summers admitted in Tokyo at the weekend that China's
concerns over the falling yen had been one factor influencing the
decision to intervene.

Mr Sakakibara declined to comment on the possibility of further
Bank of Japan intervention in foreign exchange markets. He
claimed that it was up to the market to decide whether the yen's fall
was over. I cannot control the market, he said.

Mr Sakakibara emphatically denied that any secret agreement
had been reached between Japan and the US whereby Tokyo
would accelerate reforms in return for Washington's support for the
yen.

The communique issued after Saturday's G-7 and Manila
Framework group meeting noted China's reiteration of its firm
commitment to maintain the stability of the renminbi. China's
assistant minister of finance Jin Liqun said that the Chinese
government is firm on its commitment to maintain the value of its
currency.

The vice-governor of China's central bank, Liu Mingkang,
meanwhile expressed hopes that the US and Japan would continue
their joint market intervention to bolster the yen.

Some analysts believe, however, that by getting together Japan and
China at the weekend meeting and effectively compelling them to
make respective commitments in front of their Asian neighbours to
undertake economic and financial reforms and to ensure currency
stability, the US has secured a means to exit from the onerous
responsibility of underpinning the value of the yen.

Both nations would lose face if they fail to follow through on their
commitments, it is argued.

The Tokyo meeting was held ostensibly at Japan's request but Mr
Summers admitted that a number of nations including the US and
Japan had wanted an emergency meeting in view of concerns over
the economic and financial situation in Japan and the instability in
foreign exchange markets.

Apart from the US and Japan, the participants included Australia,
Canada, China, France, Germany, Hongkong, Indonesia, Italy,
South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand and Britain. International Monetary Fund, World Bank
and Asian Development Bank representatives also attended.

The strongest language in the communique involved Japan.
Deputies recognised that restructuring in the Japanese economy
and financial system is urgently needed, it noted. It is of vital
importance to Japan, to the recovery of Asia, particularly those
countries affected by financial market turbulence, and to the entire
world economy that Japan restore its banking system to health,
achieve domestic demand-led growth and deregulate its markets.

In this context, they welcomed recent announcements by Japan of
its determination to restructure its financial system as a matter of
highest urgency, including the prompt disposal of bad assets, to
accelerate the implementation of a fiscal stimulus package and to
reform both corporate and individual income tax structures. They
emphasised the importance of concrete action to implement these
plans quickly, the communique said.

Ichiro Ikeda, director of foreign exchange at Credit Suisse First
Boston in Tokyo, said: The meeting made it clear that Japan is
being cornered to take early and bold actions on its bad loan
problem and economic policies, and the development of Japanese
steps will be the key to currency markets over the next month.

Meanwhile, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party policy chief
Taku Yamasaki indicated at the weekend that the party will decide
by July 8 on a plan to solve the banking industry's bad loan
problems.



Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:41
Rack (Slingshot-tax's) ID#411163:
The Constitution called for the taxation to be the same for everyone
ie rich and poor paid the same $ amount. It was amended in 1913? I think to be a progressive tax, the more you make the more you pay. In that way the Congress could buy the votes of the many with the money of the few ( rich ) and the rich couldn't do anything about it except slow the process by buying ( paying off the Congressmen ) One hell of a plan and it worked well until they bankrupt the Country. Then I think they
will blame it on us and start over.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:39
George__A (John Disney) ID#433172:
Since you lived in Japan for awhile maybe you know the answer? We sell something here in Alaska ( seafood ) to a processor ( Japanese owned ) for say $1.00. The same thing in Japan sells for $7-$10. No exageration, how the hell do they do it? Isn't that inflation in a big way? We can't send it privately,it must come into Japan under thier import liscense.
I studied Japanese for 2 years ( my wife is a coordinator for satalite Japanese at the local school ) . Very interesting, especially the Hiragana, unbeliveably complex, the Kanji.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:37
SlingShot (RON) ID#105111:
Thanks a bunch. link immediately bookmarked. I anticipate its usefulness in educating young anarchists I am charged with. I've been putting off buying a copy ( I loaned my old one and it never came back, must have been a freelance socialist ) until I found one properly indexed. But running a search engine on an electronic copy is even better.

Again, many thanks.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:33
Ron (SlingShot) ID#413195:
Federalist Papers Online: http://www.mcs.net/~knautzr/fed/fedpaper.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:29
MJPL (strat) ID#153111:
Ya strat, I'll give you that one. There is no bigger supporter of Big Government than Big Business. Like I said, government can be used against your competition if your connected.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:29
John Disney__A (Whats the point) ID#24135:
to all ..
of debating with guys like ROR.
His opinions are set by some life
experience or a strange but unknown
loyalty .. maybe he is a member
of the Barbra Streisand fan club
... or a whoopie goldberg
admirer .. who knows .. who cares.
You wont put so much as a dent
in this bird's thinking. Save your
strength.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:28
SlingShot (various) ID#105111:
Copyright © 1998 SlingShot/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I believe the everybody pays the same amount tax was the capitation tax that the constitution ( before amendments ) specifically prohibits. Quick, let me get my constitution .... here it is, section 9 of article I: No capitation tax, or other direct tax shall be laid unless in proportion to the census or enumeration herein before directed to be taken. Be damned if I know what that means. I was taught that capitation tax meant head tax ( i.e. same $ per head, or what Jeil was talking about ) , and that the constitution specifically prohibited it, for whatever reason the founding fathers had for that ( anybody got a well-indexed copy of the Federalist Papers out there? ) . The literal words above seem to say that it's OK if it's in proportion to the census, almost like they expected the federal government to tax the STATES, but only by head count ... anybody?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:27
George__A (Slingshot) ID#433172:
Yes get rid of those guys, don't matter what order,just rid,rid,rid. The freedom of our children depends on it
No victim -no crime
Outlaw all forms of health insurance-or any prepay system they can suck.
The whole economy is being vamped by suits.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:25
HighRise (Gold is holding up well!) ID#401237:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

http://www.drudgereport.com/
Shi Guangsheng: U.S. Becomes Largest Foreign Investor in China
http://news.stocksmart.com/ss-news/CX1065360.html

Monday June 22, 12:49 am Eastern Time
LTCB shares down sharply in afternoon
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980622/ltcb_8303__1.html

Monday June 22, 12:29 am Eastern Time
U.S. tells Japan economic plan not enough - MITI
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980622/trade_apec_1.html

Asia markets are weak, may not holdup till close. Japan continues to drop!

Gold still looks strong even in the face of what some call deflation. I think we have confirmation of the direction of things to come.
IMHO, Gold will now move up.

Good Night All

HighRise

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:22
Ron (in sack-o-tomatoes) ID#413195:
Copyright © 1998 Ron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All merkans re 50% tax rate: Let's not forget that in addition to federal and state income taxes, we must pony up an additional 23% ( on average ) for everything we buy to pay for so-called corporate taxes, which of course, someBODY -- some PERSON -- must pay. THIS hidden regressive tax hits us hard on every product and every service we purchase, even on things that are supposedly tax-free. The additional tax bite easily gets the average middle-class Joe to an effective tax rate of 73%, give or take a point or two. Throw in sales taxes, property taxes, govt fees, levies and tolls of every kind and description, and the average middle-class schmuck is stuck with a bill for 80+% of all he makes, 90% for a guy in the 39% fed income tax bracket. Our forefathers must be puking in their graves.

Screw the disciples of the social gospel.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:18
MJPL (SlingShot: ---> A little known Air Force Secret) ID#153111:
I have a friend who's father was in the Air Force, and he told me that there were no toilets on air craft. His Dad told me that the flight suit performs many functions that they don't talk about on the Discovery's Channel Wings program.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:17
George__A (Jeil) ID#433172:
Copyright © 1998 George__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The masses don't vote for anything now,except for the occasional referendum. No such thing as a federal referendum.
If everyone pays the same tax I guess those people who get very little will have to give a very large per cent for taxes?

I'm in favor of a direct democracy where the people vote for every issue, the executive just implements thier will, as in Switzerland. We can do it with the aide of computers. Representative government just don't work, we all know why.

I get money for free every year from the State of Aklaska and I like it, just so long as I don't have to do a damm thing for it. People CAN be given a certain amount of money for free without crimping the gotta do demons.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:13
JTF (Assessment of IDT's 6/22/98 Veneroso Fax) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: It is always tempting to be bullish gold, since FV is bullish. What makes me uneasy about this post is the following statements:

1 ) Japan wants to reflate, and since it is one of the world's largest creditors, it will, ending the deflationary period in SEAsia.

2 ) Worries about China devaluation lead to support of the Yen.

3 ) Japan and Asia have a competitive advantage over the US, due to their growing trade surpluses, versus a worsening trade account deficit in the US.

With regard to item 1 ) this is just what Japan has been trying to do for the last several years, without success. What Japan needs to do instead of reflating is to systematically shut down bankrupt businesses, in order to restore local and foreign investor confidence. If it does not do this, Japan will continue to deflate, and their markets will fall.

WRT item 2 ) a Chinese devaluation is inevitable, regardless of what happens with the exchange rate.

Item 3 ) -- US trade deficit. This will not get the US -- yet. What we have learned on Kitco is that SEAsian production has dropped, rather than increased. Now, when the SEAsian firms get back on their feet, then the real deflationary danger to the US will begin.

So -- I find much of this reasoning faulty. Most of the facts FV presents suggest more deflation, not reflation to come. The deflationary serial currency devaluations have not yet ended. We should at least wait for the Yuan devaluation. Also, commodity prices will probably bottom in the next 6 months -- not now.

If FV is right, and the shorts are frustrated, and short cover, it will not be for the reasons he states. It will be because the BIS ( and other CB's ) have decided not to let the price of gold go below 280/oz US. Or equivalently, the 'powers that be' have decided that the US dollar is too strong.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:12
strat (past my bedtime...) ID#93232:
Toilet seat was a special model...it fit where the sun doesn't shine!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:11
Tantalus__A (SlingShot. Nice post. Can I play too.) ID#374204:
6. EPA
7. Bureau of Land Mgt.
8. Dept. of Transportation
9. Social Security Administration
10. Klinton Administration

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:08
SlingShot (strat) ID#105111:
Anybody ever bother to find out if the $600 ( aircraft ) toilet seat was the special model that had to keep the poop in the pot at -5Gs?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:06
SlingShot (MJPL) ID#105111:
Maybe the sailors could benefit from those classes about condoms that Tantalus_A was telling us about.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 01:02
MJPL (Anchors Away) ID#153111:
SlingShot there is one other government agency I would get rid of: the US Navy. What do those guys do besides function as a back drop for Hollywood movies or as a vector for venereal disease around the globe. I can't think of a bigger waist of tax money that have high school grads enlist into a service that has no more defense function than a love boat cruise!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:59
strat (MJPL) ID#93232:
Corporation, very large ones anyway, ARE the government. Look at the careers of various bigwigs weaving in and out of both government and corporate jobs. Look at interlocking corporate boards ( same people; different boardrooms ) . Look at the deals ( welfare? ) lumber and mining companies get on government lands. How about $600 toilet seats for Pentagon? And we complain about the poor. I'm tired of #%@&*ing....Goodnight all

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:54
Tantalus__A (The politics of fear) ID#374204:
Copyright © 1998 Tantalus__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
In order to pass new restrictive laws and taxes, socialist
politicos need only whip up a fear frenzy from the pulpit.
For example, if votes are required from the teachers unions,
merely run TV ads showing decaying inner city schools and
the unfortunate children forced to attend. What parent could
ignore it? And VOILA !

A large new school bond issue, repaid by us all over the next
20 years. Kids now being searched for weapons when entering
campus grounds. Free condums for the kiddies, complete with
instructions.

And guess what. None of the students benefit from the bond issue.
The educational establishment, which voted for it, sucks
it all up. Schools still in decay. Kids still shooting kids.
These condums are great. Can I have some more!

And guess what. They're out of money again. Another politician
needs some votes again. etc etc etc etc

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:53
SlingShot (strat) ID#105111:
Copyright © 1998 SlingShot/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I have friends and relatives in government ( actually, I'm the black sheep in the family, the only one not feeding at the government trough like some retired navy types I know ) who feel that persuing their trade in private industry is selling out because they would be serving profit instead of the people. Sometimes this is very true. Some government service is indeed real service. Sometimes it's the opposite of service, is mastery.

What the U.S. needs to do ( actually the list is incredibly long, but I've got to summarize somewhere ) is get rid of America's Gestapo:

1. The IRS
2. The DEA
3. The FBI
4. The CIA
5. The BATF

These are all INSTITUTIONS dedicated to the idea that the citizen is the enemy. They gotta go, and soon.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:51
strat (Monkee Person...) ID#93232:
Shawnee Country!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:40
Monkee Person (@strat...in Pitt?) ID#288105:

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:38
Jeil (Equality and freedom are inconsistent) ID#253228:
Copyright © 1998 Jeil/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The only equality I want is equal taxes. Each person pays the same dollar amount. Democracy has degenerated into a political contest of who can get the most from government, all to be paid out of the pockets of someone else. If we each paid the same dollar amount in taxes there would be absolutely no incentive for the masses to vote for government largesse since they would net lose after the bureaucrats extracted their administrative fee from the tax pool before the funds were returned in the form of benefits. Then only the minimum government services would be demanded and government would become a shadow of its present self to the benefit of the overwhelming majority of us.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:38
strat (Slingshot, a wee bit more...) ID#93232:
Copyright © 1998 strat/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A friend of mine was an Asst. Attorney General in this fine state ( province ) who informed me one day she was taking a new job as a federal prosecutor going after medicare fraud. Then she explained to me she was anxious because she now had a quota ( !!! ) . Just the week before, I has been reading a bio of Vo Nihn Ziap ( I hope the spelling's right ) , Commander-in-Chief of the NVA. In his bio, for which he was interviewed, Ziap was explaining the when the communists took over the northern half of Vietnam in 1954, they prosecuted the few landowners who controlled the vast majority of property. Ziap offered that if the People's Courts did not meet a quota of convictions, these proletariat judges had to be replaced. Apparently the communists worried that if they didn't throw enough people in jail, they wouldn't be perceived as an effective government. Sound familiar? There is hope, though. I understand she's not too happy with her new position and is looking to do something more meaningful with her life. We shouldn't forget that often people in government are sympathetic but feel trapped.


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:38
MJPL (Government: a whole lot of shaking going on) ID#153111:
Copyright © 1998 MJPL/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Ditto to Sling Shot about limited government. I remember how in school we little Yankee Doodles were taught that the peak of corruption in the American System was achieved during the administration of Presidents Grant and Hayes. Washington was up for sale, but so what? The governmental mechanisms to intimidate corporate and private America were not present in the enlighten 19th century. Gee the bureaucrats, do gooders or your competition in business ( via a heathy contribution to the DNC or RNC ) could not put the squeeze on via the Income Tax code, governmental regulations, or a hostile court system. You could buy Washington one hundred years a go, but what did you buy? Really not much. The corruption in Washington was restricted to Washington. My how things have changed! My God, Washington is shaking down a waitress at a Denny's for income tax for tips she receives. Morally, what is the difference between the Mafia and the Government? They want a piece of the action, any action on their turf.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:35
SlingShot (various) ID#105111:
Copyright © 1998 SlingShot/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
6 pak: I will owe you forever for that one quote -- We're hoping the termites in the ceiling are holding hands. That's about as choice as it gets.

HighRise: It used to be worse. I can remember everone playing weird games with real estate so they could disguise earned income as capital gains and get 40% of 70% ( to yield the 28% we had as the new top in 1986 ) . Every now and then the government backs off.

Marginal tax rates varies, depending on the state, but I'm at about 50% right now, counting fed, state, sales, fica and the like. What's it like for the Ozzies, Kiwis and Canadians out there?








Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:28
JTF (A few more thoughts about Socialism) ID#57232:
MJPL: It is all about control of others -- the more people you have control over, the more of their wealth you control. That is what we must remind ourselves about everyday. We should not blindly follow that charismatic leader who claims to solve all of our problems, and in so doing controls our lives.

Big government, big business, big labor -- we must avoid monopolies of any kind.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:21
HighRise (Taxed over 50%) ID#401237:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

No Democracy has survived when their middle class is taxed over 40%.

The United States combined taxes on the middle class is over 50%.

It IMHO, it is a financial impossibility for the debtors of the US to ever pay off their financial obligations.

The average American can not figure out what is happening to them. They are both working but they still go farther in debt each day.

You figure it out: They are trying to pay for Mortgage+Groceries+Child care+Auto+Travel+Utilities+Etc. AFTER all taxes are paid.

My guess is, that the average person is contributing to his 401K plan, indirectly with his credit card, and doesn't even know it.

HighRise

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:20
SlingShot ((strat)) ID#105111:
Copyright © 1998 SlingShot/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Absolutely! American government is frequently corrupt, and the result is the phenomena your father observed and that drives people like ROR to embrace tyranny.

The amazing thing about Truman was that he apparently managed to get his job done in KC during his early years, and do so honestly, in the midst of one of the biggest and most corrupt machines of his time.

Even democracy doesn't get you fair treatment from government. I say again, the secret isn't democracy .... it's limited government. Every time you give the government more power to fix some injustice that outrages you, the weapon turns in your hand and is used against you.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:19
6pak (FWIW @ Canada ) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Economic growth still expected, but economists worried

TORONTO ( CP ) -- Late June typically means thoughts of warm weather for Canadians, but a cold economic wind blowing in from Asia threatens to freeze the country's fragile growth.

Business people are wary but not panicking, said McCracken.

( We're ) hoping the termites in the ceiling are holding hands.

Business confidence has been rattled by all the gloomy economic news, especially from Asia, and concerns about profits, according to the
Conference Board of Canada, an independent research group.

Based on surveys, the board predicts profits will stagnate this year -- growing only 0.9 per cent from 17.3 per cent in 1997.

We're nervous about the fact that all of the prosperity we're seeing right now could change quickly because of the debt situation consumers are in, said Peter Hall, an associate director with the conference board.

However, if unemployment rises, even by half a percentage point, look out.
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Economy.html

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:15
JTF (Democratic Socialism?) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
ROR: Why don't you look at Germany, France and Sweden where socialism is much more rampant than it is in the US? That will be the idyllic socialist society you seek. Millions of people on welfare so generous that they do not wish to work when jobs are available. Creativity stifled by free handouts. Why work when you get paid not to?

I grumble about US socialism, and how it is strangling our economy -- especially small businesses. Our infinitely wise bureacratic leaders respond to complaints about overegulation by adding more regulations, rather than eliminating the old ones that caused the problems. There is a well known US economist who has pointed out the extensive damage socalism ( excessive regulation among other things ) has already done to our economy.

What amazes me is the American ingenuity to earn a living despite the degree of socialism we already have. Ever think about why our economy is doing better than the European ones, and Japan? Part of it is because we are less socialised ( regulated ) . Consequently our economic system can adapt more quickly to changing external forces.


Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:14
MJPL (SlingShot! Quit goofing off!!) ID#153111:
When the Wife is away, the SlingShot will play!

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:13
strat (socialism/capitalism) ID#93232:
My father used to say that in America, it's socialism for the rich & capitalism for the rest of us. I live in a city that will spend about a billion dollars for two sports stadiums so those teams' employees can still take home millions of $$$. And recently, a number of friends of mine, who work for either the government or corporations have confided in me that they don't speak out ( letters to the editor, etc. ) because of repercussions. I gave up on the idea a long time ago that America is a free country...no such thing, only the illusion.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:11
JP (Newtron--In response to your questions) ID#253153:
I'm not really familiar with Japanese politics. Sales of dollars by any government is deflationary because the proceeds are converted to local currencies and repatriated from the US to that country.It actually shrinks the money supply in that country. The fed sells dollars by selling treasury bills on the open market and receiving foreign currency which it can't spend in the US.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:10
MJPL (Socialism and Human Sacrifice) ID#153111:
Copyright © 1998 MJPL/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
This is one I posted late last night, for everyone's reading pleasure I thought I would post it again

Just how many people have to be slain on the alter of Karl Marx before you
socialist are happy. Lenin and Stalin polished off over 20 million, the Great Leader of
the Nationalist Socialist Workers Party: Adolph Hitler ( oh yes he was a socialist! )
was responsible for a world war costing another 20 million and who knows how many
people died under Mao? Castro only a small mass murder, but then he only had a little
population to experiment with, social engineering kills. You rail on against the United
States, but we have one problem none of the great Socialist Experiments have ever
had, the problem of illegal immigration from your happy workers paradises! How can
you egg these butchers on? To propose socialism in the latter part of the 20th century is
to be stupid or blind.

I know people in other countries are concerned with how Washington is acting like a
bully boy, well before FDR came along the US for the most part minded its own
business. As the American socialist gather more and more power to do good they
decided to stop being selfish and extend the benefits of all of their wisdom to the rest of
the world too. Socialism implies a stong government with a Klinton or a Gore at its
lead.

For those who say that socialism has not been given a fair chance, what hasn't been tried? Is it that the leaders of these failed socialist experiments where not up to the task? As far as to what hasn't been tried yet I'll let the those who want to jump into that blood filled pool again answer it what may make socialism work. As far as if socialism's failure was due to unfit leaders, I think that is ridiculous! Given the track record of socialist paradise in this century, socialism is damn hard to implement, to hard in fact I would say. And failure to do the job right is terrible. Even if we got Plato's Philosopher-King to do this dangerous and difficult thing; what is to be done when he, like we all do dies?

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:06
SlingShot (MJPL) ID#105111:
Hey buddy! I tried to work, I really did. But they made such provocative remarks, I just had to hit that ole' submit your comment button.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:04
Skylark (Gold Price in Yen) ID#93130:
One would expect gold would higher when priced in Yen since the Yen has fallen vis a vie the dollar and it will take more Yen to buy gold. In Dollar terms, gold is off over $3.00. I do not attribute the significance that some due to the rise in gold in other currencies as this merely is a mirror image of the respective currencies vis a vie the dollar. More importantly, in Japan, demand is so soft that gold is selling at a discount to the dollar price, according to a recent article.

My appreciation to those who responded to my prior post.

Date: Mon Jun 22 1998 00:01
SlingShot (HighRise, Earl) ID#105111:
Copyright © 1998 SlingShot/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
HighRise: you're quite right ( re ROR ) , that argument was settled 40 years ago. My class in the history of Soviet foriegn policy many years ago was taught by the man who was Secretary of State of Czechoslovakia in 1968, a good man ... it left me with a lot of convictions as far as socialism is concerned, so I get a little excited. But it is a dated argument.

Earl: I appreciate the compliment.

I'm much more interested in some of the thoughts being put forth by Davidson and Moog in their latest ( The Sovereign Individual, I highly recommend it ) . A fine point that they make is that the power of government is being held in nearly universal contempt at the end of the 20th century. That government is now perceived as being INCAPABLE of solving the problems of the human race ( because, as I've pointed out to ROR, government is violence [see Harry Brown's book from the 96 campaign, he makes this point more eloquently than I] ) and violence just isn't getting the job done like it used to.

Case in point is what's going on in Japan right now. Bottom line is that Japan, even though not in debt at all ( Japan in fact is the planet's biggest creditor nation ) is in big financial trouble, and it is all largely the fault of an incredibly inept and corrupt government. See the site Bill Buckler recommended here a day or two ago. Japan's government is NOT dedicated to the service of its people, it's dedicated to the enrichment of its sponsors ( the Japanese equivalent of a Mafia / TriLateral committee hybrid ) .

I still think the best thing the Japanese government can do is let the bank fail, then proceed from there. The attempt to keep them above water is just pumping up the bubble. And the U.S. is telling them: print more Yen! It's gonna get real exciting over the next few months. Crash in Japan, Y2K.


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