Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:57
sharefin (Email chatter) ID#284255:
The Dollar and the Fed.................
The beautiful simplicity of it all in words so eloquent written by Andy Xie of Morgan Stanley:
An asset bubble can only be sustained by external liquidity. When Japan's bubble burst in 1990, the subsequent outflow of Japanese liquidity fueled credit bubbles throughout Asia. In economies with no control over asset supply, it led to overinvestment. In Hong Kong, with tight control over land supply, it led to asset inflation. Japanese liquidity no longer flows into Asia. Instead, it is going to Europe and the US. It is unlikely that Hong Kong can sustain its property bubble in the current environment.
The Hong Kong government, in the end, will have to cut taxes or even give tax rebates to stop the economy from sliding further. The deflation of an asset bubble is contractionary, which leads to a rise in the savings rate in response to diminishing wealth. The only effective macroeconomic tool, in the absence of a monetary policy, is to reduce taxes. Hong Kong has accumulated fiscal reserves equivalent to one-third of GDP. This is the time that the government should deploy these resources. As the newly elected legislature starts to put pressure on the government, we believe that Hong Kong government will have to cut taxes. Any delay, though, would reduce the effectiveness of such a policy.
We will get an extremely bullish scenario in Gold one way or the other, IMO. There will be no avoiding it. The only real difficult element to predict is when in time it will occur.Probably when the fed is forced to raise interest rates not because the economy is overheating, but rather because the liquidity bubble is bursting.
here it is , yet another sign.
every time we have moved the dollar from folding money to change, inflation hit.
IMHO they just never watch the single dollars close enough when it comes to money supply. With all this other new money the funny $100 & $50 bills. Now the $20 and a new dollar coin. this may just do it.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:43
JTF (Solar-planetary resonance?) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
chas: You may have noticed the tone of my post changed slightly when I started talking about solar tides and planetary conjuctions. The conventional answer is no -- because the sun is a big ball of liguid fire -- plasma to be more precise -- and the planets move about it, and cause weak solar tidal movements. What made me hesitate a little is the sun is a dynamic system, consisting of a nuclear fusion furnace that makes the heat, with a spinning motion that constantly twists north-south magnetic field lines. At time of sunspots, these magnetic field lines 'break up' and form the two-ended columns that extend out form the surface of the sun -- solar flares form at this time too -- if the phenomenon is strong enough. What I don't know is how these planetary movements affect the stability and extent of the solar flares. The sun's magnetic field flips could also drive the earths magnetic field, with possible eventual undesireable consequences, since the earth's magnetic field is essential for stopping several types of deadly solar or cosmic rays. We do know the earth's magnetic field flips every 50-100 thousand years or so, for unknown reasons. I have checked on this, and se no evidence that we should worry about such a flip in our lifetimes.

So the answer is still no, I don't think any planetary motions could cause life threatening solar activity. If the sun were that unstable, I doubt that life could survive on our planet. But a small doubt remains in my mind, and I hope there is a solar physicist out there working on this problem.

I maintain that the real threat for the future of humankind is not a future planetary conjuction -- but an asteroid, a supernova that is too close, or some object that passes too close to our solar system.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:39
AZAU (sharefin, deflation) ID#247273:
Copyright © 1998 AZAU/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Your are very astute, and give excellent references. 1998=1928? Only time will tell. I, too have been reading from 1928 sources, and am surprised at how remarkably aware and rational they were. These were not all party animal roaring twenties types. For us the question is, what can we learn from them, and how to apply to NOW? Deflation that we see is destroying money ( credit ) almost as quickly as it is created, which indicates saturation of the system, and the system response to that condition. Credit ( money ) creation becomes dependent upon more credit creation, until some saturation is reached. Apparently, they reached it in the 1928-30 period, and we seem to be nearing a similar circumstance. could it be that this time is really NOT different?
Names have been changed to protect the guilty.
I am searching for that saturation point, and how it is induced.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:38
sharefin (Golden Cheezehead) ID#284255:
Couldn't agree more.

As to where the charts are pointing;

Here's an email I posted out a couple of hours ago.
I'm not sure about the charts at the moment.
There are at a very pivotal point.
To early to tell. - They are very oversold.

I think the fundamentals are going to slam gold.
This rumour of Russia selling,
I can see being taken up by many countries who are broke.

Look at OZ - 70% of our exports to Asia
Current account deficit blow out by $2 billion to $7.5 billion
No one to buy our goods and we're spending like there's no tomorrow.
Wouldn't surprise me to see OZ sell more gold.
Like before - so US Corps get their money.

I don't like to be so bearish on PM's
But the global economies are weak and getting weaker.
I guess there will be more selling of PM's.

Have yet to post Lihir but will soon.
My appologies for being slack.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:35
John B__A (Australia Bullion Up Nicely at This Hour) ID#77133:
Gold stocks recovered some of Tuesday's 4.3 percent fall as bullion improved to nearly US$293 per ounce, but dealers said investor confidence in the sector remained very fragile. Lihir Gold ( AUS:LHG ) rose six cents to A$1.98 and Normandy ( AUS:NDY ) two to A$1.41, while several smaller gold producers retreated further.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:30
sharefin (Email chatter:) ID#284255:
-little room for monetary policy to alleviate problems ( interest rates already so low )
-fiscal stimulus not really working. anyway, with such a huge fiscal deficit, there is little room for much to be done
-exchange rate depreciation will help exports and the inflationary results are probably a good thing for japan ( suffering a deflationary gap at present ) , so long as the fall is not too fast
-japan/asia must recover before gold can take off again. so far asia has been very bearish for gold
-japanese elections are approaching
-financial crisis deepens as 5 major banks debt rating downgraded by Moody's. Another 4 on the cards
-unemplyment rate at 3%
-there is little domestic pressure for change since low interest rates mean that it costs the gov little to service its debt. the pressure is really from abroad.

Hong Kong.
-first time in 13 years there will be economic contraction
-Asian contagion likely to continue to affect HK
-HK will affect Europe if HK$ devalues and breaks its US$ peg since this will affect the cost of repayment and servicing of European loans

S. Korea.
-6.7% unemployment is a 12 year high
-going into recession
-recent changes in law will allow for mass redundancy
-1st quarter gdp declined 4%
-debt/equity ratio=400-500%
-Chaebols resisting change and likely to be a long process ( took Japan 10 years to start painful process of change )
-President Kim must take on the union demonstrators, and make full use of the implicit support he has from the people
-must implement IMF measures
-Yen devaluation will make for pressure for Won devaluation

Will Asia affect Europe?
-if Yen continues to depreciate and sets off another round of devaluations ( Yuan, HK$ )
1 ) asian debt to European banks ( servicing and repayment )
2 ) cheap asian exports competing directly with european manufactured goods
3 ) inflationary effects of devaluations ( more expensive imports of raw materials )

-tripling of interest rates to defend rouble
-the crisis has been an ideal opportunity for the communists to attack the governement for mis management
-russian fundamentals are good however and the man in the street is not much affected
-IMF $700m approved after russia makes an attempt to get its fiscal house in order by revamping tax collection and cracking down on dodgers ( oil industry and other large enterprises ) to cover deficit
-the russian mafia have an interest in keeping gov weak by not paying taxes, yet they don't want the gov to be toppled siince they are the ones sustaining their power.
-but measures are feared to be insufficient to maintian investor confidence
-g7 package likely to sustain the rouble

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:29
HighRise (Mtn Bear (SE) ) ID#401460:

Thank You

I wish Bart would post a notice if he is having problems or is working on the URL stuff. He may have done that and I missed it?

Thanks again,


Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:29
Thanks for the memories! Too bad they're all about to come to a TV screen near you and me! The answer to your most important rhetorical question IMHO is YES! In this scenario, gold will be cheap AT ANY PRICE! When this all hits home, no one will ask what the price of gold is because without it, no one will survive the devastation caused by the collapse of the PAX AMERICANA and its god in whom we trust, the US DOLLAR!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:24
sharefin (Solzhenitsyn lays bare the evils of modern Russia) ID#284255:
A Great Russian Nationalist view...
By Alan Philps in Moscow

ALEXANDER Solzhenitsyn, the Nobel-prize winning writer, this week
publishes a bitter indictment of the evils of modern Russia.
The author's attack, in a book called Russia in the Abyss, will make
unpleasant reading for the Kremlin just as the government tries to
weather the worst financial crisis of the decade.
According to Solzhenitsyn, 79, it is not just the finances of Russia
which are rotten: the state which grew up on the ruins of the Soviet
Union is facing collapse, taking the Russian nation to its doom.
The Russians, he writes, are committing mass suicide while their rulers
and the new rich feast off the wealth plundered from the countryside.
Our frenzied rulers are stabbing Russia to death, he writes. We are
barely living - caught between the oblivion of the past and looming
annihilation in the future.
The language of his polemic proves that Russia's greatest living author
has not lost the messianic zeal which he used to destroy the communist
party, exposing the crimes of Stalin in Gulag Archipelago. In his new
work he sets himself up as the defender of the majority of Russians - 98
per cent according to him - for whom the reforms of recent years mean
only poverty, unemployment and helplessness.
Russia, he says, is ruled by band of selfish people who are indifferent
to the fate of the people and do not even care whether they live or
die. The Russian state is a phantom where elections and a so-called
free press are just an empty boast, he writes. One of Russia's key
tasks, he says, is to create a sense of American-style patriotism,
without which there can be no normal society.
The book is due to go on sale on Thursday. Excerpts have been published,
at the author's wish, in two newspapers outside the control of the
notorious oligarchs who own most of the mass media. But only 5,000
copies are to be printed, raising the question: who is listening to
Solzhenitsyn's call to reject the flesh-pots of Moscow and live the
simple, peasant life? The publisher and critic Igor Zakharov said: This
is a book mainly for people who professionally worry about the fate of
Russia, and secondly for his literary admirers, but there are not many
of them left.
The writer's rejection of Russia's smash-and-grab capitalism is so
absolute that he has become a national irritant, so much so that few
people want to listen to him. Mr Zakharov said: The Moscow elite and
the money men hate him. They don't want a prophet of asceticism
preaching in the market square. For ordinary people, he disturbs their
peace of mind too much. They do not like to hear that they can lead a
moral life if they just listen to their consciences.
Solzhenitsyn has long been out of favour with the authorities. When he
returned to Russia in 1994 after 20 years of exile, he was given a
fortnightly television slot, but it was axed supposedly on the grounds
of low ratings. Many suspected it was because his message was so
With his beard and antique vocabulary, Solzhenitsyn appears to many to
be a caricature of the Russian writer turned prophet.
Defenders of the current regime say that Solzhenitsyn and other
disaffected intellectuals have done a lot of harm by painting the
blackest picture of economic reform.
Published comment in Moscow about Solzhenitsyn tends to be polite but
dismissive. But he claims to receive thousands of letters from the
provinces, which he calls Russia's Third World, where people live a
primitive subsistence culture.
Konstantin Eggert, a commentator at Izvestia newspaper, said:
Solzhenitsyn has failed as a prophet in Russia. If he wants to help the
dispossessed, he needs to find a way to influence the decision-makers.
But he has lost that audience. He has failed to make himself part of the
The Moscow elite, for whom the future is bright, criticise him for being
out of touch with aspirations for a richer and more comfortable life.
Russians, they argue, want more wealth, more evenly distributed, not a
return to the 19th Century.
His tirade would no doubt be balm to the soul of the provincial
dispossessed, but they do not buy many books. Indeed, they rarely see
money at all.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:19
Gianni Dioro__A (Selby) ID#384350:
Thanks for the Bre-X link. Now I know what Ron was talking about with his gravitational Force.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:18
sharefin (Is the World Headed Toward a 1930s Style Depression? ) ID#284255:
Is the World Headed Toward a 1930s Style Depression?

Would Americans Follow Bill Clinton If He Issued FDR's War Powers to Revive a Depressed Economy?

By: Mary Mostert, Analyst, Conservative Net

On the first day of trading in 1998 the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 0.72 per cent at 7,965.04. The economic indicators looked great and the financial commentators were talking about the market hitting 8000 in a matter of days, then 9000, and, perhaps by the end of the summer, the magic of 10,000.

A couple of days later, Alan Greenspan spoke at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association. ( AEA ) and spent 15 minutes talking about the danger of deflation.

Deflation? Like the deflation of the 1930's Depression when bacon was 10 cents a pound and candy bars at 2-3 times larger than today's candy bars sold for 5 cents?

Deflation has not occurred in the United States on a broad scale since the Great Depression of the 1930s and Greenspan declined to say whether there was an imminent risk of a deflationary cycle, but said it could be at least as bad for the economy as inflation.

Both rapid or variable inflation and deflation can lead to a state of fear and uncertainty that is associated with significant increases in risk premiums and corresponding shortfalls in economic activity, he said.

Economists listening to Greenspan's speech were struck by the attention on deflation after decades in which the Fed has made the fight against rising prices its overriding mission, Reuters Wire Service reported. Greenspan's comments were taken as an indicator about his views on raising the interest rates. However, inflation was running at 2.1 percent, the lowest level in a generation, and did not seem to be a problem requiring higher rates.

Reading Thursday reports from the Singapore, Hong Kong and Toyko papers on their worsening economic situation is a sobering reminder of the worldwide economic depression which in the 1920s which eventually hit America's shores. Then President Herbert Hoover noted in his 1930 State of the Union Address, During the past 12 months ( since the October 1929 crash ) we have suffered with other Nations from economic depression.

In tracing the origins of the depression, Pres. Hoover said that to some extent it could be traced to a speculative period which diverted capital and energy into speculation rather than constructive enterprise. Had over-speculation in securities ( stocks ) been the only force in operation, we should have seen recovery many months ago, as these particular dislocations have generally readjusted themselves.

Other deep-seated causes Hoover told the Congress were chiefly the world-wide over production beyond even the demand of prosperous times for such important basic commodities as wheat, rubber, coffee, sugar, copper, silver, zinc, to some extent cotton and other raw materials. The cumulative effects of demoralizing price falls of these important commodities in the process of adjustment of production to world consumption have produced financial crises in many countries and have diminished the buying power of these countries for imported goods to a degree which extended the difficulties farther afield by creating unemployment in all the industrial nations. The political agitation in Asia; revolutions in South America and political unrest in some European States; the methods of sale by Russia of her increasing agricultural exports to European markets; and our own drought - have all contributed to prolong and deepen the depression.

Wednesday's worldwide financial news prompted me to re-read that quote, which I used in an article for the Michael Reagan MONTHLY MONITOR issue on the economy and the 1930s depress for March, of this year. A year after the 1929 Crash, Herbert Hoover still believed in the Fundamental Soundness of the Economy, but recognized that a dramatic new era was opening up. Those changes, he realized, were dramatically altering the economy.

The 1920s, like the late 1990s, were an era of rabid anti-trust suits to control the new industries, such as the Radio Corporation of America, and bring to heel old industries, like the anthracite coal companies. Hoover said, in a 1930 speech before the Gridiron Club, It is scarcely five years since the anthracite coal industry was, in the view of many people, so infected with the sin of monopoly that it demanded instant Federal action. In the meantime the scientists have found so many substitutes for anthracite that the industry is now struggling for existence.

Today, it is possible to burn anthracite in one's grate without any feeling of participation in wickedness. Today the primary evil is electrical power. We must all agree that especially the electrical current developed from water has become mortally sinful. That sort of electricity is supposed to come like manna from heaven and consequently can be produced and distributed free.

Today, worldwide, we have speculators and over-production of manufactured and agricultural goods and, in America, a new policy in Washington to haul the industries that are largely fueling the economic boom into court for their success which have caused them to become world industrial leaders.

We now have plummeting stock markets in Europe, Asia, South America and, in the last couple of days, the United States. On August 7, 1997, the Hong Kong Index shot up to a high of 16,673 points. On Thursday, May 28, 1998, the South China Morning Post reports today, that Hong Kong Index dropped 498.78, a 5% drop in a market that closed at 8,983.43. Since late March, the market has lost almost a quarter of its value. Strategists have warned in the past few days that they see few reasons for a recovery in share prices.

The London Telegraph today reports an 80% rise in interest rates in Russia, coupled with a 40% drop in its stock market THIS MONTH. This is not encouraging news. Interest rates in Russia have now reached 150%. CNN reported that, of 55 stock markets in Asia, Africa, Europe, North America and South America, around the world, all except for Buenos Aires and Mexico City, fell yesterday. ( see )

The Korea Times reports a massive labor union strike by the Korea Confederation of Trade Unions would put the already-beleaguered national economy into extreme chaos.

And what is apt to be the reaction of the American people to a looming world economic problem? First, will the average American even hear about it? They seem to have stopped reading newspapers or even watch TV News. This non-reading, non listening trend which has become quite obvious since January when the Lewinsky-Clinton sex scandal broke could save America.

Increasingly people say that they won't listen to the news because they know we are not being told the truth or because I just don't want to hear it.

This phenomenon makes the American people very hard to lead as we limp towards the 21st century. I personally doubt that today's Americans would react with the sheep-like behavior of the 1930s. Hysterical reactions to economic problems in Germany and Italy led to the people in those nations to choose dictators to lead them. Economic problems in the United States led to the people, in a panic, to support FDR policies and actions that were blatantly unconstitutional. While many of his plans were blocked by the Supreme Court, it accelerated an era of increasing government control over the lives of a once free people.

How long, do you suppose, if America DID slide into depression, would it take Bill Clinton to resurrect the March 9, 1933 FDR instigated Senate Report 93-549 which invoked presidential war powers by declaring a national emergency? Under those powers the president could: seize property; organize and control the means of production; seize commodities; assign military forces abroad; institute martial law; seize and control all transportation and communication; regulate the operation of private enterprise; restrict travel?

Does anyone recall President Roosevelt's Proclamation 2039 which began, Whereas three have been heavy and unwarranted withdrawals of gold and currency from our banking institutions for the purpose of hoarding....

The purposes of hoarding? The gold belonged to individuals. They were withdrawing the gold because they didn't' trust the banks. The proclamation provided that anyone violating the presidential order by withdrawing their own money from the bank would be fined not more than $10,000 and jailed for not more than 10 years. In 1932 a $10,000 fine was equivalent to at least $100,000 in today's money. Ten years in jail is a greater sentence than given today in many cases for murder.

And for what reason? For withdrawing their own money from the bank. Somehow I can't imagine most of the young people I know meekly standing still while Bill Clinton, ruled the nation with executive orders and orders to Congress as Franklin Delano Roosevelt did.

For one thing - Roosevelt didn't have Newt Gingrich as Speaker of the House.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:13
6pak (USofA Neutral WW II 1936 to 1941 @ Gold & Death (LEST WE FORGET)) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
June 2, 1998

U.S. report shows neutral countries aided Germany's war effort

WASHINGTON ( CP ) -- Neutral countries kept Nazi Germany's war machine running with hundreds of millions of dollars of trade in key materials, according to a new U.S. government report.

Much of it was paid for by gold that Adolf Hitler's troops looted from banks and by valuables taken from Holocaust victims, says the report, being released today.

The report concludes that although Switzerland was Nazi Germany's banker, other neutral nations -- Sweden, Portugal, Spain, Turkey and Argentina -- provided materials to keep the war going.

You can't fight with money, but you can fight with supplies, said one U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

In all, those five neutral countries handled $730 million Cdn in assets for the German government and its citizens during the war and dealt in $438 million in looted gold, the U.S. official said Monday. That would be $10.2 billion in today's dollars. Assets could include those from war trade or from private individuals and companies who held foreign bank accounts.

That first report also noted Germany relied heavily on neutral countries for supplies. To varying degrees, each of the neutrals co-operated with Nazi Germany for their own economic benefit, it said.

FWIW........ History brief..

1933..Adolf Hitler begins 12 years as dictator of German. Franklin D. Roosevelt begins 12 years as President of the United States.

The NATIONAL SOCIALIST ( NAZI ) PARTY, and Adolf Hitler as Chancellor, come to power in Germany, on a rising tide, of nationalism and economic unrest.

The National Socialist Party ( NAZI ) open the first concentration camp at Dachau near Munich. The facility is for jews, gypsies, and political prisoners.

The United States abandons the GOLD STANDARD April 19 by presidential proclamation, but Roosevelt rejects a currency stabilization plan proposed by the GOLD STANDARD countries meeting in JUly at a World Monetary and Economic Conference at London. In October he authorizes the Reconstruction Finance Corp. to buy newly mined GOLD at $31.36 per ounce. .27 cents above the world market.

March 05 President Roosevelt proclaims nationwide bank holiday, and forbids GOLD export.

March 06, Congress passed The Emergency Banking Act, and gives the president control over banking transactions and foreign exchange, the act forbids hoarding or export of GOLD.

April 05 Presidential order requires that all private GOLD holdings be surrendered to the FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS in exchange for other coin or currency.

June 16 Congress passed the National Industrial Recovery Act ( NIRA ) provides for code of fair competition in industries and for collective bargaining with labour, Industry agrees to shorten working hours and in some cases limit production. ( Annual earnings: lawyer $4,218 - physician $3,382. - college teacher $3,111 engineer $2,250 public teacher $1,227 - construction worker $907 - hired farm hand $216 )

Spring 1936..Italy completed it's conquest against Ethiopia also signed an alliance with Germany.

USofA Washington, and Russia Moscow, establish relations for the first time since the 1917 revolution. CATHOLIC values and traditional order, Franco's Falangist Rebels, rose in revolt to stop the spread of GODLESSNESS and worse.........Propagandist's For these rebels ( Falangist ) strove, with considerable success, to identify the cause of the REPUBLIC with that of KARL MARX

In drib and drabs young men drifted out of CANADA, eventually to arrive in Spain to enlist in the Mackenzie-Papineau Battalion of the International Brigades fighting for the REPUBLIC

Thousands of working men, from the USofA and the world over, went to Spain after 1936 ....helping a democratically elected REPUBLIC battle against Franco-Hitler-Mussolini ( Hitler & Mussolini had invaded )

December 1936.. Abdication of Edward VIII ( England )

January 23 1937..Joseph Stalin purges the Communist party and Soviet army of alleged Trotskites.

July 16 1937..Germany's Buchenwald concentration camp opens on a plateau overlooking Weimar. The first inmates are mostly political prisoners of every religious belief.

May 1937..George VI - crowned King ( England )

March 1938..Germany annexed Austria

September 1938..Germany agitates issue of Czechoslovakia ( German minority ) a French ally. Hitler demands cession of Czech ( British frightened - French and Russians would bring forth involvement )

March 28 1939..Spanish Civil War ends. Germany and Italy have withdrawn by June. Spain will remain **neutral** in the new European war. Estimates put the total dead at well over 1,000,000.

September 1939 - Britain and France declare war on Germany - South Africa did likewise - Australia and New Zealand - Ireland remained **neutral** - Canada found itself at war for the second time in a generation.

June 1941.. Canada and Russia allied, for Europe to get governments of their own choice.

December 1941..September 11, Roosevelt issues an order that German or Italian vessels sighted in U.S. waters are to be attacked immediately.

October 17 - U.S. destroyer Kearney is torpedoed by German U-Boat.

October 31 - U.S. destroyer Reuben James sunk by German U-Boat.

December 07 - Japan attack USofA Peal Harbour, USofA entry into the second world war. ( December ,08 Senate votes 82 to 0 for declaration of war on Japan - The House votes 388 to 1 ) ( Japan also declares war on Britain )


Some 12,500,000 American, men and women of every faith, national origin, color, creed, and political belief, joined the armed services, fighting and dying from Kasserine Pass in Africa to the Coral Sea in the Pacific. Before the war was over some 300,000 Americans were killed or missing in action and 700,000 were wounded.

Across 2,000 miles of battle front in Soviet Union blazed the fiercest battles in all the history of mankind. Such was the tremendous power of the Nazi assault thrown against the Soviet Union on June 22, 1941, when 6,000,000 troops, then thought to be invincible, plunged into Russia, that Winston Churchill said that no other government ever formed among men would have survived the shock.

Over six million ( 6,000,000 ) Russian soldiers died in battle as hundreds of thousands of Russian civilians acted as partisans behind the enemy lines, ambushing, trapping, harrying the Nazi foe.

General Douglas MacArthur said, The scale and grandeur of the effort mark it as the greatest military achievement in all history Prime Minister Churchill added, Future generations will acknowledge their debt to the Red Army as unreservedly as we do who have lived to witness these proud achievements

John Foster Dulles, during the middle and late thirties paid extravagant compliments to Hitler, Mussolini, and the Japanese imperialists. He defended the Nazi seizure of Czechoslovakia on March 19, 1939, declaring, I dislike isolation, but I prefer it to identification with a senseless repetition of the cyclical struggle between the dynamic and static forces of the world He considered Nazism dynamic and wrote We have to welcome and nurture the desire of the new Germany to find for her energies a new outlet

World War II - USofA Corporate profits soared to an all-time high, 250 per cent higher than the prewar level, while prices rose 45 per cent and wages were frozen at 15 per cent above the 1941 level.

Nazi MONOPOLIST'S, many of them with connections with American bankers, formed the NATIONAL SOCIALIST ( NAZI ) PARTY. Their Hitler, committed suicide on May 01 1945. ( MAY DAY - International Labour Day. )

FWIW Take Care.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:12
STUDIO.R (@Dust Bowl II..........air cond. cooler than gold...........) ID#288369:
98 degrees @ 10:15....unreasonable, unseasonable. Yes it's a hot night in the city.....BBWed.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:11
ERLE (@oris, and squirrel, and constitutionalists) ID#190411:
Shotgun News, one of theeeeee most subversive, according to DC of all free maket publications, most likely has advertisements for these weapons.
Noone cares; an Enfield MkIII should be sufficient.

All of the guns against the gummint crowd, had best beware.
The stuff to be used against any undesirables, will include laser blinding weapons that will render any infantry type adversary either permanently blind, or blinded for a long while.
Plus, the really techno-neat part about it is that they operate on multi-optic frequencies.
In other words, if you shield your eyes for one type of laser, you will be blinded by another frequency.
But, I am quite sure that Mr. RETIRED SOLDIER will avail you of the facts, and the manufacturers of such weapons.
After all, only mozelites and conventional republicans, need fear any of this.

Got gold?
Bad boys, whathcha' goin' to do?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:10
sharefin (Gusto Oro) ID#284255:
Send him to Ted's Island.
Four years of hard labour
With Ted swearing at him daily
And making him do all sorts of penance
Should be a start.

Email Chatter:
The British health ministry has finally approved the use of VIAGRA.
The first shipment arrived yesterday at Heathrow and was hijacked
after leaving the terminal.
Scotland Yard is looking for a gang of hardened criminals...

I watched Dan Rather on CBS evening news and his people were out interviewing the common man. They all must be reading something because they all are slugging their dough into the STOCK MARKET and they are all getting rich. The Stock Market is just the NEW type bank the U.S. has created where you puts your money in and get a 40 Percent return in 12 months. Goes on year after year. Pretty soon I won't know what to do with all my money. All the interviewees know that for a fact.
Just look out for that guy eating banana's and throwing the peels on the ground.

Because of excess liquidity, lower interest rates, low inflation and only mild deflation here, if at all, I think that the market will continue higher. This is the general picture, but the devil is in the details. These details include, IMO, some weakness here as we speak, particularly in the high techs, which will end later in June. Then I see a vigorous ( liquidity and low interest rates driven ) rally to about mid August or so before we go into a more severe decline ( bottom late October early November in the 8200 to 8300 range ) . Once this catharsis is over, the impact of the Postal money on liquidity will blow this bubble away, IMHO. I would not want to be short late this year and early next year. At least that what I see now. If the Pakistani and Indus nuke each others, than all bets are off.
The shadow of a full-blown recession haunts the region as the financial crisis takes another lurch with markets plunging, industrial output tumbling and economic growth grinding into negative territory.
Here is a link to the story

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:07
Cmax (@ANOTHER) ID#339320:

Maybe I'm just the only ignorant one, but just in case I'm not, ANOTHER'S postings can now be followed at:

This format should prove to be more productive, as sneer fraternity and jeer squads cannot interfere. In his shoes, I would do exactly the same.

Thank you sharefin for the Mozel posts, and Mr. Mozel for your thoughts!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:03
Prometheus (@Liberty) ID#210235:
Thanks for the first good laugh of the day. Yes.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 23:01
Preacher (The POG) ID#225273:
To all:
I just checked the CBS MarketWatch site and August gold is up $1.80 tonight at $295.00.
Silver is down $.008 at $5.160

Love to see a rally.

The Preacher

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 22:54
Preacher (Reify & the Gap) ID#225273:
Copyright © 1998 Preacher/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

I looked at the chart you posted. If you'll notice Friday's close, then moving forward you see that on Monday the XAU gapped open to the downside. Today was an inside day, which is usually a consolidation formation prior to the resumption of a trend.
I gave what I thought would have to happen for the chart to look like it was going up.

So I'm curious to know your reasons for your conclusions, which I certainly hope are correct.

The Preacher

PS. Thanx for all the nice comments. After I got blown out of the water last week, it's good to hear some positive feedback

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 22:52
trader ed (EB, regarding your 23:45 post) ID#373349:
This is a good time to take your cotton profits. A big drop in prices will start late this week, or early next week. Good luck.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 22:52
trader ed (EB, regarding your 23:45 post) ID#373349:
This is a good time to take your cotton profits. A big drop in prices will start late this week, or early next week. Good luck.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 22:50
Copyright © 1998 GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
And more INFLATION for ASIA! If Russia IMplodes, the world EXplodes! US DOLLAR WILL SOAR TO UNCHARTED NEW HEIGHTS! US WILL BE UNABLE TO EXPORT AND WILL FALL INTO A RECESSION WHILE THE REST OF THE WORLD FALLS FURTHER INTO DEPRESSION! Look for another round of competitive devaluations ( this time from China, HK and Japan ) , more social unrest, and a resurgence of nationalistic protectionism! Gold will soar in all currencies EXCEPT US DOLLAR and may yet plunge to the $200-250 level before the end of the year! This will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime as US Dollar loses its reserve status to Euro. ME will demand payment for oil in Euros and US dollars will be dumped on the market to buy Euros to buy oil! PLUNGING US DOLLAR, GLOBAL DEPRESSION, Y2K DEBACLE, CLINTON IMPEACHMENT AND GLOBAL NUCLEAR SABOTAGE will all converge at the end of 1998 to make GOLD the store of wealth for the beginning of the new millennium and beyond! Until then, it's more of the same BS! Oh yes, don't forget! AG will be leaving the FED in April of 1999! This is when gold will soar in US dollars as the US dollar is finally REVALUED in terms of GOLD! The revaluation will take our collective KITCO breath away as ALL DOLLAR-DENOMINATED PAPER IS REVALUED TO ITS MOST PRODUCTIVE AND BEST USE--TOILET PAPER, and gold is again revalued to its most productive and best use--AN ETERNAL STORE OF MONETARY WEALTH AND MEANS OF EXCHANGE!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 22:49
AZAU (Buttload?) ID#247273:
EB, what exactly is a BUTTLOAD?
I agree with your call on sugar. Those areas most affected by the unusual weather seem to be some of the sugar producing areas, now in drought. Something to consider. Bona Fortuna.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 22:43
Snowball (Reasons to buy MORE gold) ID#234218:
Kitco charts have been down!!! Always a good indicator.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 22:42
EB (It's like a way....¡AZUCAR!) ID#230216:
For some people anyway......

I bought a BUTTLOAD of out-o-money SUGAR calls for October 98 and January 99. It feels sweet too. ;- ) ( I had to tell someone why not tell the Kitco world ) . We are bound to have a rally here.......someday. It struck me the other day, too, that ALOT of Commod's are WAY underpriced ( DUH ) so I have been accumulating MANY out-o-money calls in those depressed markets. ( and I ain't been one to throw money AWAY like I'm doin it now......never ) . But I can't seem to go after gold.........hmmmmmmmmm. I don't 'believe' in it right now......uh uh. Next year I will consider it or towards winter ( northern hemishphere ) ......uh huh. quench my recent sweet tooth.....and to convince my broker-dude that I is not crazeeeees

EB talkin about that consolidation-triangle-pennant-double-bottom-oil-thingy I am usin my magicnation and i sees it too. oh boy.....what to do..... ( ? )

Kuston - I may be coming to Pheonix in July ( mid to stuff ) or so. I'll look you up and we'll smack the little ball around, eh? In between sweating and beers......... ;- )

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 22:32
Selby (modulation of natural solar tidal oscillations.) ID#286230:
ANOTHER Bre-X Moment:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 22:32
Lan Man (@Barr Update) ID#320108:


WASHINGTON, DC -- Following an announcement by the White House that it

will not appeal a federal district court ruling against an executive

privilege claim, and will instead pursue an appeal based on

attorney-client privilege, U.S. Representative Bob Barr ( GA-7 ) released

the following statement:

Once again, the White House has decided to trade away some of the

power, prestige, and respect of the American presidency in an all-out

effort to thwart a legitimate criminal inquiry. It is obvious that as

soon as the Supreme Court set a firm deadline on the frivolous claim of

executive privilege, the President's lawyers quickly decided to

circumvent the Court's strict time limit by changing the subject, and

trying to buy more time by doing so.

However, the law is also clear on this new appeal. Government lawyers

cannot be prevented from testifying about possible criminal activity

observed in their official capacity. White House lawyers are paid by

the taxpayers to handle official matters, not personal misconduct by the


Consequently, if the President does discuss personal matters involving

criminal misconduct with government-paid lawyers, those conversations

are not protected by attorney-client privilege. In fact, if the

President has been using government-paid lawyers for personal legal

matters, it raises a question of conversion of taxpayer resources for

personal use.

Hopefully, the courts will act quickly to force a prompt resolution to

this latest claim so the American people do not have their access to the

truth impeded by a White House that will stop at nothing to obstruct


Barr, a former United States Attorney, led the successful prosecution of

dozens of Democrat and Republican elected officials for corruption. He

serves on the House Judiciary and Government Reform Committees.

For further information, please visit our website at

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 22:29
AZAU (Hoppers AZ) ID#247273:
I see the 'hoppers here in the headlights; last time such occurred was 1980, hot and Mt St.Helens. Remember? Product of weird weather, but I won't say the El word.

What the significance is, I have no idea, just reporting the facts.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 22:29
Gusto Oro (Sharefin & Clinton) ID#377235:

I was out of the country when Slick Billy got elected. If you have any suggestions on how we can get rid of him they are welcome. If Billy boy is dominating Australia I guess it explains why you guys are called
Down Under. --AG

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 22:15
robnoel__A (Reify,Sharefin,Snowball.....forgot to mention the grasshopper plague in Arizona...some are saying ) ID#411112:

these arn't grasshoppers they are locusts....and if you divided 3 into 1998 you get.............

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 22:08
chas (JTF & Gianni) ID#344259:
Is it possible that with planetary alignment, the forces could resonate and magnify the otherwise ordinary addition of forces?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 22:07
JTF (Must go home before spouse locks me out) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gianni Dioro: I have the Time article -- May 3, 1998. The fossil evidence from 6000 years ago could not be accurate enough to make a link with a planetary alignment. That fellow Salt is correct that the earth's crust could slip at some time, but it would not be due to the planets lining up.

There is one possibility. That is that it is clear that celestial motions of planets and other bodies such as asteroids, etc are syncrhonized ( quantized ) . But -- this syncrhonization is complex, and involves harmonics of many types. Regardless of the precise synchronization, anything that could produce the destruction that the Lloyd's people are worried about would mean the end of the world as we know it. And -- we would see what ever it is coming at us. I admit that is a somewhat perverse form of humor, but Lloyd's would never have to worry about payment to their clients. If it doesn't happen they make a little ( a lot of? ) money.

What could do the earthly damage Lloyd's is taking about? An asteroid, a nearby supernova that melts the earths polar icefields in a massive ( electron ) electromagnetic pulse, etc. So -- whatever happens we would see the reason for a world-wide catastrophe -- It would not just be the conjunctions of several planets.

I could be wrong about this -- but I challenge the Astronomers or Astrologers to prove me wrong with firm historical data. I can't recall any historical major earthly event that is that was exclusively due to a planetary conjunction of any kind.

On the other hand -- the effect on the markets could be substantial. On another post I can mention the effect planetary movements have on solar tides, which drive the solar temperature ( solar constant ) and sunspots. In a nutshell this is complex, and involves relativistic resonance effects. I don't think any current solar experts can tell you exactly what this kind of a conjuction could to the the sun -- it would probably be a very long cyclical effect, what ever it is -- and not likely to produce the planetary crust slippage -- or any really catastropic effects by itself. The best way of putting this is that the planetary conjuction effect is veray weak, so all that really happens is a modulation of natural solar tidal oscillations. This will not be enough by itself to cause a massive solar flare and a cooked earth. Hope this helps. If I learn more about the solar cycles driven by planetary motions, I will post what I learn.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 22:07
oris (300 mil. oz. of silver from Russia...) ID#238422:
Copyright © 1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
seems to me like a huge amount...Russia is not a big
producer of silver. Pretty good silver production in
the former USSR used to be concentrated in Asian Republics,
I believe it was mostly Uzbekistan...Russia does have
strategic reserves of silver kept for emergency, but
300 mil. oz sounds like a huge stockpile...I'm in doubt.

By the way, to understand the meaning of strategic reserves:
here is an example for you, gunloving brothers of Kitco,
do you know that you can buy ( in the U.S. ) such rifles as
Mosin-Nagant mod.91, made in the beginning of the century,
kept in storage somewhere in Siberia and now being imported
to the U.S.? Or Mauser K98 rifles and
Luger PO8 pistols, captured by Russians in WWII, kept in
storage for 50 years ( in good shooting condition ) and now
being imported to the U.S.? Just imagine what Russians keep
in storage besides these gizmos. They do keep a lot of
materials, as they say, in case of war emergency...including
silver and platinum, but I do not know even approx. numbers.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 22:06
Mtn Bear (SE) (@ Preacher) ID#347267:
Also am a very appreciative reader of your Market Comments. An observation re oil and oil stocks/gold: XOI and XAU bottomed together on Jan 12, '98, have been going down together lately, so why not a rise togrther starting 'bout NOW?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 22:05
NJ (Reify : You will like this url.) ID#20748:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:59
Mtn Bear (SE) (HighRise, Your 19:51) ID#347267:
Had the same question on a few days ago- no one responded either. Called the KITCO 800 number and was told they are having technical problems, should be fixed soon--FWIW. Must be so, since I was able to access the charts a few times since.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:57
Reify (Sorry NJ) ID#413109:
No offense was taken, and when chartists' differ, it makes life

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:56
Snowball (@robnoel_A re: your 21:27 and Preacher) ID#234218:
Loved it, just loved it! I just wished you hadn't been so vague. I don't know charts from f**ts and the only wave I understand is at a football stadium, but your post, along with fear of mutuals, says why I keep on buyin' mining shares and physical.

PREACHER: I can't tell you how much I appreciate your comments ( as well as many others ) . I read and study, but you sure help put it together for me thanks.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:54
NJ (Reify) ID#20748:
You know TA much more than I do. I was just looking at the gap down yesterday on that chart, and felt that that is what Preacher had in mind. No offense.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:49
Bully Beef (Rising Sun...I see the point that you are making and many people in both our ) ID#259282:
Copyright © 1998 Bully Beef/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
countries will agree with you when you express yourself the way you just did. There just doesn't seem to be any solution to inner city madness.Generations of people without meaningful work. Work to me is a bit of privlege. ( SP? ) I would go nuts if I didn't work. Imagine having to watch daytime TV for hours on end...enjoying Gerry Springer...looking forward to the Wheel of Fortune.I feel the best after I have been hard at work. As stupid as this sounds there is only one solution and neither the capitalists or the socalists will do it and that is to take a leap of faith and try to hire some of these people even when you know they would perhaps rather fleece you than work for you. The other thing is that many of these people don't exist in the statistics and there would be a glut of labour should they decide to work. This would further beat down what is left of the middle ( read taxpaying ) class.I would like also to say spending some more money on their education would help but no its been tried. Nice bounce in gold today but if the dead cat bounced it wasn't because it was decayed.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:49
Reify (NJ ?) ID#413109:
I looked, NJ, and I saw the same thing I see each day when
I look and study my charts, of which I keep dailies, weeklies and
monthlies. I also look at time, stochastic, MACD, comments,etc etc,
what is your point?
I interpret the charts of XAU daily and weekly not to mention monthly
as having bottomed and is now going up, so?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:48
STUDIO.R (@Be there or be we'll hop on over to..........) ID#288369:
Whoopee! Wednesday..........BYOB.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:48
sharefin (Robnoel) ID#284255:
You forgot to mention;

Leap year
Leonoid showers
Planetary lineup
400 year sunspot cycle
Financial bubble
Boomer bubble
Beanie bubble

Plus lack of common sense
Gold is sooo cheap.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:42
NJ (Reify : Take a look.) ID#20748:$xau.x&time_period=Daily&bars=100&newstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key=&mode=D

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:39
ChasAbar__A (Beanie... Gold) ID#287358:
Copyright © 1998 ChasAbar__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Yes, 240,000,000 beanies were essentially sold out at McDonald's
in about 10 days. Twelve different @ 20,000,000 per figure.

I recognize the insanity of the above. However, my truckload of plastic
boxes to house beanie babies arrived today, and I will sell them, to
create paper, to exchange for silver. Others will have the beanies, and
their shiny plastic boxes, and I'll have the silver.

Hummin' birds make da hummin',
Honey bees make da honey.
Good Lord make all dem pretty girls,
And I make da money.

Quote from T-Bone Walker, blues guitarist.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:37
A.Goose (Seems like their is interest in getting delivery in gold... ) ID#256255:
Copyright © 1998 A.Goose/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

927,753 0 0 0 0 927,753
149,568 0 161 -161 0 149,407
1,077,321 0 161 -161 0 1,077,160

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today

0 0 19,386,626
0 0 36,175,089
516,173 0 53,969,459
516,173 0 90,144,548

Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )
point previous received withdrawn net chg total

Total 82,998 0 769 -769 82,229


Gold 35,000
Silver 15,000
H.G. Copper 7,500

-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --
ISSUED TODAY 222 0 642
SO FAR FOR JUNE 2,163 4 8,091


Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:36
Reify (Start off each day with a song, even when things....) ID#413109:
It's always nice to read a cheery report, it make one feel good, and now
I can look at the future more optimistically. Are you sure
you didn't leave anything out? Famine, pestilence, disease or
any of the other goodies?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:33
Skylark (What Does Gold Look to As A Price Point) ID#93130:
Copyright © 1998 Skylark All rights reserved
I posted this on the Veneroso web site, and am repeating it here for critical consideration as it expresses my conviction on what Gold really looks for as a price point.

Although Veneroso and Associates, WGC, CPM Group and other gold analysts appear to concentrate on physical supply and demand to explain and predict the movement of gold, economists use inflation, currency movement, interest rates and other economic factors to explain and predict gold price movement. From charts and historical studies I have personally reviewed, gold clearly prefers to follow economic theory and political considerations - rather than supply/demand considerations based on a commodity analysis.

Inflation has been steadily decreasing due to global opening of markets, deregulation, decline in oil, etc. In addition there is no global strife. Thus, the decline in gold is exactly what it would be expected of it in response to these economic and political conditions regardless of what the Dutch or any other CB is doing, producer hedging, leases, etc. Moreover, such CB sales, leasing, hedging are only a reflection of and as a result of such economic and political conditions. CB sales may temporarily affect the gold market, but the market will come back to its equilibrium price based on economic and political factors.

It is margin which make markets move, and this margin will be determined by the investor based on economic and political conditions. And when such conditions are ripe for investment, or when the market anticipates them to be ripe, then gold will rise significantly - but not
beforehand. And when it is ready to rise, no CB selling, Producer Hedging, Leases, or Speculative Short Selling will stop it.

And thus gold analysis based solely on supply and demand rising from producer and CB sales, Indian usage etc. is an attempt to predict the price of gold on an illusory premise and as a result will continue to suffer from reliability.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:33
pdeep (Japanese Devaluation) ID#174103:
Copyright © 1998 pdeep/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It was interesting to read RR between the lines, warning the currency markets not to short the Yen. It would appear that the Yen is a prime target for the shorts, even with a bunch of US$ in reserve. A few hundred billion $ in reserve is no match for the mountain of debt coming due. One possible scenario: Yen drops ---- BOJ sells US T-bills to support currency --- US rates go up ---- US equities and bonds take a dive ---- dollar weakens as foreigners cash out ---- Japanese exports to US go down ---- further contraction of Japanese economy ---- BOJ generates more stimulatory debt ---- Yen drops further.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:29
Reify (Preacher) ID#413109:
Copyright © 1998 Reify/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Read your comments after checking crude and XAU daily.
Agree with you on crude, give you the benefit of the doubt on
gold and silver, but looked at the daily on XAU and don't see
a filling of the gap before heading lower. We've had a normal
correction of the up move, and are now heading higher.

That's what make a market, I guess.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:29
Let X=X__A (n obvious outcome) ID#318126:

Even with the all of clintons china problems

who wants to bet he will still renew mfn status tomorrow?

There is no choice

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:27
sharefin (Tantalus Rex) ID#284255:
Do you know why OZ sold its gold

Because BC told JH too.
It was premeditated by the boss of the US.

Do you know where the money went

It went to Asia - Indonesia.
So that US corporations would not loose too much.

Blame who?
OZ for being dominated?
Or the US for being the dominator?

OZ has plenty of gold in reserves.
Most of it still in the ground.

What we don't have is strong minded leaders,
Who won't kow-tow to the mighty US.

Japan the yoyo = down 252 pts

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:27
robnoel__A (I need to say this before I go crazy) ID#411112:
Copyright © 1998 robnoel__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Europe has no clue as to what will happen with the Euro.Russia is possibly days away from implosion Asia has only just started to feel the painSouth America is a basket case can't decide who its friends areThe most powerful man in the world is about to go downMideast sees the soft warm underbelly of its number 1 enemyAfrica is so far down the hole daylight is not even possibleIndia and the Pakkies are about to end world hungerChina has 13 maybe more US cities in the nuclear cross hairsUS troops soon in country 102 Kosovo might as well be WaterlooMore US citizens go BK than any other time in US historyWhat were Americas friends are now enemysMore money is now in mutual funds than all banks combinedMutual fund investors say they in for the long termAnd now we learn the US Government gets an F for Y2KAND YOU ASK ME WHY I BUY GOLD AND LOTS OF IT

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:26
JTF (Brazil) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Avalon: I don't really understand that post about Brazil, but I think we are safe in saying that Brazil may be trying to float treasuries with no takers. Next step - interest rates skyrocket, or currency devaluation. This fits with the steady dropping for the last month of the Mexican index ( MEX ) .

sharefin: Stormclouds ahead. Batten the hatches. I think we are in for another round of currency devaluations. Brazil, Russia, and ? And -- gold equities will not do well until the storm blows over, so much for the pre-correction gold bug Tsunami. Hope you are out of equities, as you advised me. When the musical chairs end this time, there will be a few more 'fiat currency' chairs missing.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:26
grant (Reify thankyou) ID#433422:

this is GOOD news

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:21
Gianni Dioro__A (inverted yield curve) ID#384350:
The yield on the US 5 and 10 yr notes just crossed each other.
10 yr: 5.550%
5 yr: 5.551%

The flatness of the yield curve usually points to economic slowdown.

Also, I found the article about LLoyd's and Planetary alignment
you need to register ( free ) then use resources, library, search for back issues. 3 may, 1998. Click on Contents. The article is called, Lloyd's braced for insurance claims from outer space

Says the last time there was a conjunction of 6 planets was 6,000 years ago, and that fossiles show that it caused earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tidal waves.

Says that the conjunction in 1812 of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune caused freezing temperatures in the N Hemisphere in this year of no Summer.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:18
ChasAbar__A (Another) ID#287358:
Do you know what Another would say about the 16:30 post?

Noone wrote that book.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:16
Reify (Gold spot $291.5) ID#413109:
Grant- Bookmark the fol for future reference.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:15
Preacher (Market Comments) ID#227290:
Copyright © 1998 Preacher/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
To all:

In looking at my charts tonight, something very stark jumped out at me. In the crude oil market, there is the most pronounced bullish non-confirmation I ever remember seeing on a chart.
Two weeks ago crude made a new low for the year. But whereas at the last low, the stochastics were below 10, this time they remained above 40 even though the price moved to a new low.
So the momemtum indicator did not confirm the price decline by about the widest margin I've ever seen.
I don't follow it too closely, but it would seem there is a meaningful rise coming in crude oil in the not-too-distant future.

In the metals, what a difference a day makes:

Gold bounced off the level of the March low which was a new low for this decline and then closed higher for the day, a nice reversal. I'm good for a rally back to $300. After that, we'll have to reassess. Gold needs to get back over its MAs and the uptrend line that it broke last week to convince me the uptrend is still in tact.

The XAU had an inside day, where the low was higher than yesterday's low and the high was lower than yesterday's high. Usually, this is a consolidation pattern and we would expect the trend to continue ( in this case downward ) in a day or two.
In this case, the XAU gapped down yesterday and now will probably make a strong attempt to fill that gap. If it gets the job done, it's no great shakes as the top of the gap is not too far above the current price.

On the plus side, stocks like BMG and KGC today rose further than they fell yesterday and are now positive for the week. HM has rallied into yesterday's gap already, and while not positive for the week, today's high was higher than yesteray's high. And it's things like this that make yesterday's action appear exhaustive.

What would be positive is a gap open tomorrow making the last two day's trading action form an island reversal.

The XAU does not look as positive as gold itself tonight. I want to see some more positive action before I get excited. It is good, though, that the March low held.

Silver is threatening to break out of the congestion of the past several days, to the upside. It has turned from a very oversold condition on both the daily and weekly charts. The 200-day MA is at $5.73. I think this is its first target.

I bought SSO today at C$4.60, so you can track how I do, to take advantage of a move up in silver.
AZS is back up to where I bought it on May 15, despite gold being about $7 lower. AZS is much stronger than BGO right now for some reason, probably the fact that BGO has interests in Russia and AZS does not. Anyway, I'm even on AZS but down on BGO, but plan on making a profit on both before it's over. We'll see.

Right now, silver looks the best, gold is second, and the XAU is third. And don't forget crude oil.

Happy trading,

The Preacher

PS -- BTW, I told you a couple of weeks ago about an exploration stock named Global Mineral & Chemical ( GCO.Alberta ) with its copper/gold property in British Columbia. One of the newsletters recommended it strongly yesterday and today it moved sharply higher from C$.11 to C$.18. If you follow it, nothing new has happened to the story, it's just that some buyers came in on the recommendation of a newsletter writer.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:11
kitkat (Russia - UP 13%) ID#208393:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:10
grant (Someone PLEASE post NY close gold spot) ID#433422:

What a day!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 21:07
Liberty (@ REHTONA.......Gold Thoughts) ID#263379:
Copyright © 1998 Liberty/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Earth waves and flashes of “Big” light beneath all, between Near and far East, reveal more than we can see. India, Asia, Indonesia. Change will soon show itself inside, as we see the only the tremors of the outside.Rivers of yellow and white will flow from these places as they seek paper of the West.

Leaders of state banking, are now revealing the new way of thought, for the “Bear to the North”. Ruble’s become fit for wiping orifices, as all that has value, takes flight across borders. See how foreign paper, takes wing and becomes paper of the West. “Whiffs” of deflation, mean some things held precious will fall. Oil, Gold, commodes ...that is commoddities. These can be had for less paper, in future days, as viral spread of devalue diseases goes worldwide.

Open selling by Northern bankers, will lead to rumor of CB sale to the South. EU will not give protection to precious yellow, as it loses appeal from this “open” selling. Can a government own oil and sell it for paper? A big northen oil maker,finds no buyers to trade for paper of the West. This governing, loses heart as no bids are found for the oil. This reveals the new thought which will spread to all places to the South and East.

A minor sell of Gold and Silver from merchant Bear of the North, sends a new message. “Bring Gold back to the $ 280 to $310 level”. This will be hard as it may create a “rush to cover” for saddened Longs. These caught the $311 wave, wishing for lofty heights. Let us watch closely as this Old Gold market, behaves “as before”, yes?. Thank you.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 20:54
Silverbaron (chas @ earthquake sites) ID#288295:
I think these are the two earthquake sites you are looking for:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 20:48
Tantalus Rex (The Blowout - Sharefin) ID#295111:
Now that's what Australia deserves for selling gold reserves. Let their currency rot!!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 20:42
sharefin (Blowout leaves markets reeling) ID#284255:
The Australian dollar plummeted to 12-year lows and the sharemarket tumbled yesterday, driven down by sliding gold and base metal prices and concerns over the deepening economic crisis in Asia.

Almost US0.75¢ was slashed from the $A, which fell as low as US61.11¢ its weakest since September 1986 before recovering slightly to be trading at US61.18¢ late yesterday.

The pressure on the $A was increased by new figures showing Australia's external accounts are heading towards Banana Republic territory following an Asia-induced record blowout in the current account deficit in the March quarter.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics figures showed the deficit widened by 33 per cent to $7.5 billion in seasonally adjusted terms the largest dollar increase recorded with analysts predicting it would worsen.Given the absence of any factor the $A can rally on, the direction of the currency is down, said Mr Craig James, chief economist at Colonial State Bank.

We've got low gold prices, a slowdown in Asia, speculation of interest rate cuts, world financial market instability and a widening current account deficit.

As markets reeled:
The All Ordinaries Index fell 50 points at one stage, led by gold and base metal miners, but ended down 18 points, or 0.67 per cent, at 2671.1.

Gold plumbed five-month lows, shedding $US4.50 to $US288.45/oz in New York amid fears that Russia would sell its gold reserves, and waning demand from India, the world's biggest gold consumer. It faltered even further in Asia, trading at $US287.65 late yesterday.

Copper fell 2 per cent and nickel slumped to a 4-year low.

However, US stocks, which have been hit by concerns that companies with Asian exposure will have their earnings slashed, made a modest gain in Monday trading. The Dow Jones gained 22.42 to 8922.37.

Regional equity markets were mixed, with Hong Kong weaker, and the Nikkei 225 1 per cent firmer.

Currency analysts see little prospect of the $A firming this year, with the US dollar pushing ¥140 and only a slim chance of commodity prices particularly gold recovering. Yesterday's slump in gold hit the Australian sharemarket hard, the gold index falling 4.3 per cent. Gold producer Newcrest Mining dropped 11.9¢ to $1.90 while Normandy lost 6¢ to $1.39. The Reserve Bank of Australia met yesterday. However, with the $A perilously close to record lows and tipped to fall to US60¢, the central bank is seen as holding off on an interest rate cut.

The lower the $A, the less chance of a rate cut, said Ms Su-Lin Ong, a senior economist at RBC DS Global Markets.

Fears of an Asian recession have intensified since Hong Kong and Malaysia both recorded negative growth in the first quarter. Indonesia's Central Bureau of Statistics said yesterday it expected GDP to shrink 10.1 per cent in 1998.

The $US surged to ¥139.92 in New York Monday. It eased to ¥139.43 late yesterday, but any falls were limited as the chances of Japanese economic recovery became more remote. The fall in gold below $US290/oz was spurred by India announcing it would raise import tariffs on the precious metal, and fears Russia would be compelled to dump its gold reserves for hard currency to shore up a flagging rouble.

Russia is a new concern for us and the $A because it has commodity price implications which are not yet clear, said Ms Helen Camp, an international economist at Westpac Banking Corp.

Surprising the markets, April building approvals posted a 8.3 per cent rise.
Gold sector rating warning
Moody's Investor Services has warned the Australian gold sector that companies face a new round of rating downgrades because of the recent slump in the gold price which will further erode profits.

The Gold Index fell another 49.5 points, or 4.3 per cent, to 1,101 yesterday after the Moody's warning as gold analysts suggested gold could again test the 18-year low of $US278 an ounce hit earlier this year.

Gold shares were dumped on the market in large volumes yesterday with most of Australia's leading miners carrying the brunt of the new wave of negative sentiment.

Joe Gutnick's Great Cental Mines lost 16¢ to $1.96, Newcrest was 14¢ weaker at $1.88 while Acacia was down 12¢ to $1.87.

Normandy Mining and Sons of Gwalia both lost 6¢ to $1.39 and $4.15 respectively.

Reports from Moscow that bank bullion sell-offs were being considered also led to heavy selling on the New York metals markets.

The gold price, which slipped another $US4.50/ounce to $US288/oz yesterday, prompted fears that a rerating of North American gold companies could spill to the Australian sector, causing even greater problems in raising funds and lowering profitability.

Those fears mounted once Moody's warned that gold companies faced further debt rating downgrading unless there was a substantial recovery in the price.

Moody's this year has downgraded six US companies affecting about $US2.1 billion, and said total debt from 15 miners investigated for a special report totalled about $US6.2 billion.

However, Australian gold industry authorities said yesterday that local miners were far more protected than their North American counterparts through strong hedging portfolios and the weak Australian dollar, which had maintained revenue streams.

Another interesting comparison between ourselves and those on the other side of the pond is that we calculate our reserves on a price of $A450/oz, Normandy Ltd corporate manager Mr Colin Jackson said.

Most North American companies were using a basis of $US350/oz. So they are already $60 south right now, Mr Jackson said.

Australian producers were generally hedged up to four years out, with some substantially further than that, while North Americans that hedged were generally over just one or two years.

The executive chairman of Sons of Gwalia Ltd, Mr Peter Lalor, said the Australian industry had seen a substantial shift from equity to debt fund-raising over the past five years, but hedge books allowed the underwriting of a greater degree of debt.

You wouldn't want to be exposed to the gold price without hedging, he said. Australian producers are much more hedged.

The low Australian dollar also meant revenue streams were still present for the local producers, affording banks some confidence in lending money.

Mr Clive Donner, the head of the Golden Arrow Fund, a Rothschild Australia subsidiary, said reratings could impact on the lower end of the gold market, but were also likely to create further opportunities for investors.

It's very fertile ground for investors who want to take a longer-term view, he said. But you need to be an investor rather than a trader.

When you have gloom round about, you can always pick out an opportunity and bring something into the company where you can quadruple your money if you get it right.

Mr Andrej Karpinsky, president of AmeriCorp Finance Australia, said larger companies with low costs were unlikely to be affected. Anyone who has positive cash flow won't have problems.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 20:27
cherokee__A (@.....home.of.the.erectus.dis-gracius........shame..shame..) ID#287358:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee__A All rights reserved

the drought/heat wave is upon moves in-exorably north-ward....
the smoke signals reported this months before !;el nino was recognized...
with nino-el having reared its' head....there is substantitive reason to
consider the signals sent many full moons ago...we are very close to a key reversal in grains.....the asian flu will not be able to stop the reaction---huge moves---- due to the action----drought/heat wave--- in all the grains this year.....1000k in '98......

in order to hit a home run, one must swing the bat of life....


Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 20:27
Prometheus (@Velikovsky) ID#210235:
One person didn't laugh at him. Albert Einstein supported his work right until his death; they founded a University together, too. Have his book but haven't read it yet.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 20:27
sig__A (No sense discussing gold?) ID#286404:
Copyright © 1998 sig__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Y2k, Hitler, neo-SS Nazis, planetary gravitational influence........what a bunch of mumbo-jumbo! This site's beginning to show its age. The fact is gold will show strength when inflation is reality. Inflation will begin with a shortage of crude oil and an almost immediate increase in the price of labor. No sign of either in the near future. Gold will punch through $275/oz with the xau at 61 within the next 90 days. Hold your hat.

In the mean time, here's a bit of fun brought to you by two great US Americans:

Clinton's no Nixon; he hasn't the class!


Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 20:17
Reify (D Deep) ID#413109:
@ John Disney-
Based on this chart why would you sell more?
Maybe I missunderstood- please email, as I can't read all posts.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 20:17
Silverbaron (chas) ID#288295:

I'll try to find those links for you in an hour or so, as I think I discarded them. ( wife says I have to give the dog a bath ) . BTW there is a ton of stuff with reference to nuclear tests and earthquakes on the net.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 20:12
chas (Everybody) ID#344259:
OK, I'm sober now. I apologize for a raunchy post. I appreciate your patience, Charlie

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 20:10
Ron (Gianni) ID#413195:
I said nothing misleading!!! I do apologize, though, that I didn't set up the example with the truck passing by in a vacuum tunnel, so that everyone would understand I wasn't talking about wind.

But then I would have had to talk about the spring dampened roadbed so that no one would think I was talking about the vibrations.

Plus have you ever driven past a cattle truck and had a cow pee in your face? I would have had to talk about that, too!

But it didn't seem like it was worth the effort.

Again, my apologies.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 20:02
Spock (Recovery but...........) ID#210114:

London--Jun 2--Spot gold's drop overnight was a result of an overreaction
to Russia's Uneximbank's moderate 1-tonne export and news India had raised
its gold import duty, analysts said. Prices have since recovered, but the
market remains in oversupply. And currencies in the key consumption regions
of Asia are considered unlikely to stabilize and restore gold demand. By
Miranda Maxwell, Bridge News, Story .14340

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:55
gagnrad (Deep doo doo for the investor formerly known as 223) ID#43460:
Ok guys, I'm sneaking in a post while the big bad wife is out! She saw our checkbook today. In our usual arrangement ( I buy investments, she buys things ) she's in line for a new car or downpayment on a vacation house to equalize things, unless I can talk her into buying gold jewelry! Talk about socialism! Gold at $600 per ounce is here, at least at my house. See you next week or next month. 8-^ )

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:51
HighRise (Bart or Anyone ) ID#401237:

New Kitco Policy?
How do we get a name and a password, so we can access the spot info?


Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:48
HighRise (Carl ) ID#401237:

288.20 FOR 3 DAYS!

It is a big secrete,


Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:34
Avalon (kuston. Smith has a website Just checked it and it does not yet have ) ID#254269:
the J.R. interview. Check it in a day or so.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:33
Gianni Dioro__A (ron, ) ID#384350:
I see your point, nonetheless your original comments were misleading.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:28
kuston (moneyline - Y2K) ID#273227:
Thanks Avalon, hopefully someone caught it or knows where it is online.

I hate to bring this up, but I opened a new account at Bank of America today. I asked them about the Y2K problem. They were very proud to respond that they were already compliant. The branch manager was very well prepared and had a great answer. So, if everyone I've talked to about this is correct/truthful I know there will be atleast 1 health insurance company, 1 bank, and 1 phone service functional on 1/1/00. Almost forgot - the golf course told me they were ready also.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:26
Avalon (Brazil. Gianni, just reread that post. If I understand it correctly, the interest rate) ID#254269:
gets set AFTER the thing matures ( and all this grief for 35 DAY notes )
Sounds like a major loss of confidence in their currency to me. Think I'm interpreting it correctly.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:25
Isure (Avalon) ID#368244:

It will cost 20 millon for security and expenses, the taxpayers would be better off to give the bum a millon ,and tell Hillary and him to stay home.

Gee, what a joke and at taxpayers expense.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:23
Dutchman (The Clinton Factor) ID#215235:
President Clinton soon will be in the stew,
and this is mighty good for me and you,
'cause the US greenback will not hold
as speculators and investors will load up on

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:20
Gianni Dioro__A (Avalon, Brasil) ID#384350:
Senator, It looks like no one wants their stinking Bonos. That and with Russia resorting to revolving it's debt on an almost daily basis, this has all the hallmarks of Berlin, June, 1923.

Maybe the peasants are starting to realise that these bonds are promises to repay with worthless paper. There is absolutely nothing redeeming about it.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:19
Carl (Today's spot close? Help me out.) ID#341189:
I've got 3 different prices. What was the comex spot close?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:16
Avalon (tolerant one; Yep, it's a million dollar fundraiser, so I guess 40 donors. Being ) ID#254269:
sponsored by a well know Dallas developer ( Ray Nasher ) . I wonder what sort of hamburgers you get for 25G.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:16
Rising Sun (Bully Beef) ID#413372:
Copyright © 1998 Rising Sun/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

I apologize for offending you and others. I didn't mean too. The point I was trying to make is that here in America, the argument of Socialism is being presented in a class struggle diatribe. This diatribe is contributing to class hatred very similiar to what Adolph Hitler capitalized on. Under this argument, success is built on suppression. If your down and out, it's not your fault. It's the rich man. The reason for Americas inner cities in chaos is because Capitalism is not aloud to flourish. Capitalism is not alound to flourish because of the presence of Socialism. I stand corrected, Capitalism is aloud to flourish although this is Crony Capitalism which I view as another form of Socialism. You might say, how in the hell can you equate Crony Capitalism with Socialism. It's easy. Usually the people representing socialistic ideals are the ones who have a hand in ownership or other profit angles in these depressed areas. Here in America, we call them poverty pimps.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:14
Ron (buffeting wind) ID#413195:
Copyright © 1998 Ron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gianni Dioro__A: My point, of course, was just that the gravitational force of all the other planets combined, acting on us here on earth, are negligible ( even when the planets are in alignment ) compared to the gravitational forces common terrestrial objects exert on us everyday: walk within inches of a fat man and he will have a greater gravitational pull on you than all the planets combined . . . I NEVER confused the buffeting winds of a passing truck with the force of gravity!

IMHO, astrologers cannot rationally attribute the effects they study to gravity . . . something else, maybe, though I doubt it . . . but not gravity.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:13
tolerant1 (Avalon, I guess life is grand) ID#373284:
25 of them...Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:07
Avalon (tolerant one; Your buddy WJC just flew into Dallas for a $25,000 fundraiser dinner) ID#254269:
here in Dallas this evening. I just saw Air Force One make its approach about 45 minutes ago. Impressive plane.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:06
Avalon (Tiger Fund; kuston, I made the post last week. The show was on Adam Smith's Money) ID#254269:
Line last night. Unfortunately, I forgot all about it myself and caught
the last 30 seconds of Julian Robertson in which he said I am grossly overpaid and I intend to continue to be grossly overpaid. He takes 20% of the capital gains. Nice work if you can get it .

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:05
The US and the other wealthy countries YADA YADA RUSSIA ASIA YADA YADA. And Second Prize the roaring US economy.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:04
Neophyte (Sorry - I'm having trouble posting the Rubin and Russia report.) ID#390249:
It's on Drudge under AP breaking news about 30 stories down. Gives an overview of world financial markets.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 19:00
Neophyte (Rubin scrambles to prevent financial meltdown in Russia) ID#390249:
The attached is a very interesting read.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:58
tolerant1 (Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...) ID#373284:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:55
Isure (WJC) ID#368244:
Gonna pull 50% out of the market in the morning. Have a feeling that serious s--t with our pres. is about to hit the fan. Something is going down and I will not be short gold. When this baby moves it might be a heck of a lot faster than anyone expects.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:55
Gianni Dioro__A (Ron, Gravity Pulls) ID#384350:
Sure an 18 wheeler has gravitational pull. I just meant that the pull you feel when one comes roaring past you is due to differing air speeds, not the negligible gravitational pull.

With all them planets lining up on one side of the sun and the earth on the other, I have some suspicions that a tiny, miniscule, extra pull could possibly affect earth changes.

Pyramid, thanks for the link.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:51
Good ol' boy (A little humor for fellow gold bugs- we can use all we can get!) ID#26362:
What's this ( envision girl with lips pursed, cheeks puffed out ) Monica Lewinsky withholding evidence.

Yes, it is true that viagra causes vision problems. Women's eyes have been popping out.

Go Gold! Giddyup!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:50
kuston (TV- interview with the head of the Tiger fund) ID#273227:
Last week someone posted that the head of the Tiger fund was going to be interviewed on TV yesterday. Did anyone see it? Could you summarize for us?

EB - You ever come over here to Phoenix to play golf?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:48
Gianni Dioro__A (jtf, gollum, pagoda, Polar Shift) ID#384350:
All I'm saying is that if I was the earth, lying in the sun, I would turn over every 10,000 years or so, and let the other side bask in the sun.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:47
Avalon (Brazillian Govt. Debt (can someone please explain this one to me, thanks)) ID#254269:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:45
Ron (massless trucks?) ID#413195:
Gianni Dioro__A: The truck has mass and thus exerts a gravitational force on other objects, including you and me. We just don't feel it because it's negligible, just like Jupiter's gravitational force here on earth.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:42
Hut__A (Thanks Preacher) ID#347235:

and by the way--I'm trying not to be be bearish on gold ,but have been beaten up so much lately , it's tough

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:42
Avalon (Monica fires Ginsburg; has new attorneys;) ID#254269:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:36
chas (Silverbaron re quakes) ID#342315:
That damn Murphy got me again. Both Mr. Lee and gov quake sites are not responding on favorites. Can you help. Thanx, Charlie

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:35
JTF (Saw your messages -- You need a break) ID#57232:
chas: I know what you need -- and it is not on Kitco. Have a nice break! There's really nothing we can do now, except wait for the other shoe to fall. Either it will, or it won't. But if it doesn't, it will later --eventually. That is not as compact as NAB or SAB, or whatever that was.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:31
chas (Unknown and strange forces) ID#342315:
I'm doing some heavy duty research on quake effects, evidence and references. Got to take a break and I came up with one universal= If the mass of the ass is divided by the result of multiplying the inverse square of the hair and then multiplied by the heat of the meat you can arrive at the bore of the whore, DesCartes

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:31
clone (Something is wrong - very, very wrong...) ID#267344:
- c

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:31
JTF (It was 'Worlds in Collision') ID#57232:
by Immanuel Velikovsky. His foreign accent and relatively poor public speaking skills were part of the problem. I remember too much about this -- so I must have heard him lecture. Or someone I knew very well did. It was unfortunate how he was ridiculed. And -- he was right. Only 20 years out of sync.

It was much worse than the Robert Gallo lecture I attended, where his claim of finding a Human T cell Leukemia virus was ridiculed. Stanley Pruisner and his prion story was given similar same treatment. Now - both vindicated.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:30
Preacher (Hut & Dead Cat Bounce) ID#225273:
I think it's too early to tell if this is a DCB or something more meaningful. We'll know if gold breaks back above its MAs and its broken trendline.
I'd have to say, so far so good. We got what Promey called Turnaround Tuesday.
the exceedingly bearish emotions running through both you and me ( and others ) could be an excellent argument that this will turn out to be something more than a DCB.

More later,

The Preacher

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:25
chas (JTF re V) ID#342315:
You got that right. I believe it's Worlds in Collision. I have this and Ages in Chaos. Exceptional reading- not only up to date, but beyond. Thanx

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:21
Gianni Dioro__A (Ron, 18 wheelers) ID#384350:
The 18 wheeler passing by your car is not a gravitational effect, it is an effect of airspeeds moving at different rates.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:18
JTF (Planets in Collison(?)-- Logging off -- must finish my work.) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
chas: I think it was Immanuel Velikovsky -- pretty sure about the title of the book. He was literally laughed out of the scientific community about 20 years ago. Now we know otherwise, after the discovery of the Iridium layer by the the Urey brothers ( sp? ) . And -- the images of the comet Yanatuke ( sp? ) hitting Jupiter. Made a few little waves there, but the same collision on Earth would have been our undoing. Strange how scientific minds ( human minds ) are only ready for certain new concepts when they are ready for them, and not before. Galileo had the same problems.

So do we gold bugs. If others listened to us years ago, we might not be looking at the brink now. But the non-believers still do not believe, do they?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:15
Bully Beef (Dear Rising Sun ... Please tell 30 million Canadians that their system of government is the same) ID#259282:
as nazism. It will tell them volumes about yourself. Inner cities in the U.S. has to do with socialism? I just got home from work so forgive me for lacking the milk of human kindness but quite simply you are wrong and I really don't think this is worth an argument. Hey! How about those hockey scores...Zeig Heil!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:07
zeke (Inverse Square Law) ID#307271:
Copyright © 1998 zeke/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If one embraces the idea of Descartes, that there exists no space empty of field, and follows this through the general theory of relativity to the theory of pure gravitational field, it becomes compelling to believe that there is no truly empty space at all.

I believe those of us who recognize our natural intellectual limitations as that of a spiritual blindness will reconsider some of the basic postulates of our existence, namely the beliefs of our founding fathers. The nuances of our environs are of a far more miraculous origin than our tiny brains can grasp. Before there was even space or time ( both of these are still in debate among the finest minds we can muster ) …

The earth was without form, and void; and darkness was on the face of the deep. And the Spirit of God was hovering over the face of the waters. Inverse square law? How quaint.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:06
Rising Sun (ROR) ID#411331:

Democratic Socialism is philisophically related to National Socialism. As you know NS is NAZISM. I shudder at the thought when Socialism wins the day. Unfortunately, I think it will. The class envy and hatred that exist today will propel the Socialist movement that much faster. Any body that has a bank account with savings will be on suspicion. I hope I'm dead before that happens. If you look at any inner city in America, you will see the plague of destruction that Socialism brought.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 18:05
Hut__A (Gold bounce?) ID#347235:
Preacher et al... if today wasn't a classic dead cat bounce, maybe there's no such animal. Opinions appreciated

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:55 (Why the Russian Domino can threaten Europe's Markets) ID#432170:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:51
chas (JTF and Gollum) ID#342315:
Did y'all ever read Velekovsky? He makes a good case.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:48
Ron (unknown forces) ID#413195:
Copyright © 1998 Ron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gollum: Me either. And I wouldn't want to try; been on enough wild-goose chases in my life. I don't deny that they *might* exist. But if they do, they would have to be just so incredibly ghost-like to escape the notice of a hundreds of the world's most brilliant observers over the last several thousand years that . . . well, I just can't bring myself to buy into unknown forces arguments -- the Occam's razor type of approach, you know: Entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily. Besides, that's the scientific approach, isn't it: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence?

That's my story and I'm sticking to it, as always, whenever I'm befuddled or otherwise uncertain.

Away . . . to vote Libertarian.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:42
JTF (Slippage of the Earth's skin) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
gollum,pagoda: Gollum is right -- there is pretty good historical evidence for a sudden shift of the earth's skin, which certainly would have affected the earth's polar ice packs. In fact, melting of the earth's ice packs could possibly have lead to a slippage of the earth's skin, due to a destabilizing of the earth's rotatonal motion, with possible catastrophic effects.

The most likely cause of such a disatrous event such as the one that froze the wooly mammoths in their tracks about 10-12,000 years ago might have been a very close encounter with an asteroid, or the heating effect of a supernova that was too close.

Gollum -- I am impressed with your scientific knowledge. Someday you might like illumninating us a little regarding your background. Your posts are very insightful.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:42
Aragorn III (ERLE) ID#212323:
Their merger with Kinross became effective June 1st.
got it?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:39 (Personal Bankruptcies Soar in U.S.) ID#432170:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:37
robnoel__A (Who of you gave ROR that hemp jacket.....hes just smoked it..) ID#410198:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:36
Aragorn III (beanie babies...such is the senseless world of paper, too) ID#212323:
Copyright © 1998 Aragorn III/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Remember K-Tel? Hear much about it lately? After a one month run-up ( bid-up? ) from 3 to $40 per share by early May, just a month later it is now back down to $14 per share. Plenty of downside potential remains.

got frustration?

These investors ( that bought between $15 and $40 ) are no doubt telling themselves it is only a paper loss that doesn't count unless they sell. Fine. But were these decisions greed-based, or did they invest in VALUE?
I'm sure none of them bought shares because they truly wanted to be a co-owner of the company K-Tel. This could be a micro-study of the broader markets.

People are indeed getting burned on individual stock investments.

got Netscape?...DOWN from $75 to $20 over the past two years. How many individuals have given up on their own and are funnelling their money into professional managers at mutual funds that mimic the DOW or S&P index? Could we in fact already be in a general equities bear market without the indexes ( or indices ) showing it? Yes, indeed.

These same people who got burned on individual stock selections won't likely write-off a falling DOW as merely a 'paper loss'. They will anticipate getting out at the first sign of trouble.

got signs?

We've got a whole world of trouble. Pick your disaster of the day. What are you here for? Is it about survival or having fun? Remember, you do NOT control the punchbowl at this party. When it gets taken away will you be able to arrange a ride home?

got gold?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:35
Redneck (Planets Alignment ) ID#403234:
Hey! maybe May 2000 is when the magnetic poles will do their flip flop.
Don't they do that every 50,000 years or so? Have to make sure my compass will comply. You guys look good on my new dual 21 monitor, 266mzh, 128meg, system. ( Just had to tell somebody ) Wonder how many ounces they had to fork over for this. ( Guess you figured out I didn't pay for it )

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:32
JTF (Falling Dominos) ID#57232:
Larry_n: Doesnt look good for gold until the dust settles, does it? I don't think we want AG's or RR's jobs. I would be thinking about retirement, but I'll bet that any talk like that causes WJC to go orbital -- how about that for planetary dyanamics?

Seriously, I expect that RR will go first, expecially if he senses WJC's future is not good. As Oldman said, the market's and WJC's fortunes probably go together. RR's resignation would be a sign of trouble ahead for the markets.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:31
ROR (Democratic Socialism) ID#412286:
We must hope for its victory to preserve freedom and liberty for mankind. The imbalances evolving from state capitalism are eventually aN ANETHEMA TO FREEDOM as wealth an power become to closely controlled and the democratic process becomes a propaganda farce. With Socialism combined with an incentive based Capitalism with a strict rule of law this concentration of power is more difficult. Long live Freedom Long Live Socialism the two are intertwined!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:29
Gollum (I'll be back ) ID#43349:
Well, guys I gotta go shoot some pool. Catch ya latah.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:26
Gollum (@pagoda) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
There is some evidence to suggest that the earth's axis
of rotation relative to locations on the surface were
not always where they are now, not by just the few inches
they wander around now but by thousands of miles. Some
people feel that the shell sliped on top of the
underlying planet, other feel it was just something to
do with continental drift.

One of the wilder theories is that the differnces between
the polar moment of inertia of the earth and that of
it's minor and intermediate moments of inertia is so
small that wouldn't take much melting of the ice packs
to, say, raise the average ocean level 30 feet ( which
also removes the weight of the ice from the poles ) and
chage the earth's preferred axis of rotation. Bummer!

Me, I don't know.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:25
robnoel__A (US in deeeep sushi...heres Y2K report....sure theres nothing to worry about) ID#410198:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:25
chas (MM re tests and quake) ID#342315:
Possible. I'm waiting on map from USGS showing plate boundaries and major fault lines in Afghnistan. One of the best places for a good gold deposit in in a fault break. Will let you know if they get on the ball

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:23
ERLE (Anyone know what happened to Amax?) ID#190411:
No news, whay did it dive?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:23
larryn__A (JTF- Brazil) ID#316232:
Someone over the weekend said that Brazil had a bunch of Russian debt and therefore would be in big trouble if Russia fell. The dominos keep falling.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:21
Squirrel (Prometheus, I caught that socialist at the following fishing hole) ID#287186:

I started a discussion header called GOLD, GUNS, GUTS 'N GARDENS

I also cross-posted it to a bunch of other NGs {socialist, republican, democrat, etc.} which you can see when you call up the post.

there is also
and lots of others.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:21
Shlomo (JTF re: Brazil/RR) ID#288399:
JTF, it wasn't Rubin who said Russia was Indonesia with nukes. Nor did RR say, specifically, that Brazil was next ( that's just my call ) , although I see the Bovespa had a dead-cat bounce today. There was a good article today in the NY Times about Russia's problems. The LAST sentence said Russian government might have to tap into reserves.....isn't that code for devalue Someone help me on this, please.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:16
larryn__A (l/r**2 and 18 wheeler) ID#316232:
Copyright © 1998 larryn__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I agree with Ron that an 18 wheeler passing me has more affect than Jupiter, but if an 18 wheeler of earth size passed earth, we would notice. It is as if every atom was passed by an equivalent 18 wheeler at the same time.

Without planets, we have definite gravitational enfluences from the moon and sun, what I call a varying steady-state condition. Add other heavenly bodies and we have some additional small effect, whatever the amount. If the bodies align as they don't do very often, then we can expect a maximization of that small effect, possibly large enough to be evident. Gravitational force does not concentrate on one object; it affects everything to a very small degree and therefore the entire planet is affected from astrological bodies. That affect may be enough to change mental states of brains ( physical/ electronically ) which we already know are affected by the weirdest things.

Physically, the earth crust as a whole is sliding around and the sea obviously moves, and both could be enfluenced by an apparently additional unusual weak force applied over the entire earth.

Whatever happens, Clinton will either take credit or blame Newt, but due to y2k, no one will hear him.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:14
Gollum (@MM) ID#43349:
I think it's entirely possible that the shock from an
underground nuclear test can trigger an earthquake that
was getting close to happen anyway. That region is has
a great deal of tectonic activity anyway inasmuch as
the subcontinent of India is plowing into the asian
land mass ( and building the Himilayas in the process ) .

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:13
MM (Who said...(three different persons)) ID#350179:
1. If you cannot - in the long run - tell everyone what you have been doing, your doing has been worthless.

2. Even for the physicist the description in plain language will be the criterion of the degree of understanding that has been reached.

3. Most of the fundamental ideas of science are essentially simple, and may, as a rule, be expressed in a language comprehensible to everyone.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:12
robnoel__A (Gollum..just be here the next time Greenspan speaks...then you can tell us what he said :)) ID#410198:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:11
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Gold/Silver Ratio = 56.44

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:09
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
XAU/Spot Ratio = .251 The 50 day moving average is .272. My database contains 11 XAU readings in the 73.XX range. The reading today is #11. The #1 rank reading was on 12/26/91 when gold was at $354.53, the XAU at 73.61, producing a XAU/AU ratio of .208

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:09
Trinovant (Steep Dow drop) ID#359316:
Check out the steepness of the drop in the Dow about 3.10 pm
Is that unusual? Looks interesting...

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:06
RETIRED SOLDIER (@ Schlomo) ID#347235:
Isn't the only female intuition in our Govt belong to HRC & Maddy ALLDyke? There I go being Politically INCORRECT AGAIN!!! Drat.
Shalom to you

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:06
Gollum (@Ron) ID#43349:
I would be willing to bet there are unexplained forces.
I'm not sure how we would go about finding one though.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:02
MM (Plate Tectonics) ID#350179:
Has anyone heard of any possible link between the Pakistani/Indian underground tests and the Afghan quake? ( About as gold related as the alignment question ( smirky thing )

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:02
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.47 The 50 day moving average is 29.81 ( Gold at 291.80 and silver a 5.17 was used for all ratio calculations today )

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 17:00
Gollum (@robnoel) ID#43349:
I know what some of them mean, I think, but
I am not altogeher sure if they are english.
Actually, the bigger, rarer, and harder to
understand the words an expert uses the less
likely he is to truly undersatnd them himself.
Most concepts can be explained in simple layman
terms if one really knoews what he's talking
about to begin with.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:59
Gusto Oro (GOLD & SILVER) ID#377235:
Jack, I think you meant to say BECAUSE instead of IF!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:58
Avalon (Beanie babies, solar flares, planetary alignments, Colma Effect, ..............yeah, I guess , ) ID#254269:
this is a gold site . ( big silly grin from ear to ear )

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:57
Who said we had to be politically correct. Our holding gold shoots that down as you know. Besides you can't have any fun being PC,Shalom

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:54
JTF (Brazil next?) ID#57232:
Schlomo: Who said Brazil was next? RR? That does not sound like the politically correct thing to say, and neither does describing Russia as Indonesis with nukes. Interesting.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:49
Shlomo (Bob Rubin/CNN w/Lou Dobbs last night) ID#288399:
Good 'ole RR didn't look too well last night on CNN where he was talking live about the Russian meltdown ( he didn't use that word ) and how could spread and affect the whole world ( critical I think he called the situation ) ; basically, RR was crying the blues to get the U.S. taxpayer to fork over money to the Reds. Russia: Indonesia with nukes, someone said. And Brazil is next, except it has no nukes, just African curses. Anyway, RR looks worn down and as if he is contemplating contingency plans....IMHO/female intuition/etc.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:47
JTF (Ultimate disaster? Flip ice pack due to planetary motion?) ID#57232:
pagoda: That is pure hype. The planetary alignment stuff is more subtle than that. Probably affects human behavior only - if anything. More significant effects of planetary action have no scientific basis -- even with the 'new' physics.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:42
Shlomo (Bob Rubin/CNN w/Lou Dobbs last night) ID#288399:
Good 'ole RR didn't look too well last night on CNN where he was talking live about the Russian meltdown ( he didn't use that word ) and how could spread and affect the whole world ( critical I think he called the situation ) ; basically, RR was crying the blues to get the U.S. taxpayer to fork over money to the Reds. Russia: Indonesia with nukes, someone said. And Brazil is next, except it has no nukes, just African curses. Anyway, RR looks worn down and as if he is contemplating contingency plans....IMHO/female intuition/etc.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:38
Ron (in sack-o-beanie-babies) ID#413195:
LGB: Alas, beanie bubble won't burst until the merkan public learns that 200 million of any item do not a collectible make.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:37
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Russia will flood the silver markets with 300 million ounces of silver.

When silver goes to $7.50 India will start exporting vast hoards of silver, but they never indicate that India already exports silver in the form of jewelry, nor do they indicate that in India, silver is a form of wealth and is used for transactions between the people. Such silver has little chance of ever leaving India, it may go around, but not out of India.

The conservative Swiss are going to sell half their gold reserves. This is taken as fact even before a referendum.

That all countries experiencing currency problems convert their precious metals into US dollars; a flight to a safe haven that happens to be the biggest debtor nation on the planet.


Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:33
Ron (reality check) ID#413195:
That 18-wheeler that passes you in the next lane has a greater gravitational influence on you than Jupiter -- even when Jupiter is at opposition, the closest it ever comes to earth. If the stars and planets have a greater influence on us than, say, a beat up cattle truck, it must be through some as yet unexplained force, not gravity, no?

I wouldn't go betting the rent money on the existance of unexplained forces.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:30
pagoda (re Planetary Alignment: Book by Richard Noone title 5/5/2000-The) ID#22650:
Ultimate Disaster says that the graviational force will tip over the ice mass in Antartica and lead to polar shift. That heat under the polar cap is loosening the ice cap. Might heating be what is causing ice melt in the North?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:27
Selby (Good ol' boy) ID#286230:
Could you post the URL that shows gold. I have been relying on Kitco and that seems a bad decision today.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:25
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
LGB -- And then we can sue car manufacturers!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:23
JTF (You are right -- solar flares and space junk/meteorites) ID#57232:
Greg: I think you are right about your priorities for y2k. We still don't know what knocked out Galaxy 4. We have had big solar flares in the past, one which wiped out an entire power grid for a time. I really don't think we have enough experience to know if our current satellites are sufficiently 'hardened'. And, as LGB says, a little kinetic weapon in the form of a meteorite would be devastating to a satellite -- regardless of how 'hardened' it is.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:20
Good ol' boy (Runaway) ID#26362:
Amidst the solar flares, planet alinements and such, we seem to be having a runaway in gold. Giddyup!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:17
JTF (The 1/r**2 rule still applies) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
pyramid: I know where you are coming from with the 1/r**2 rule. However,that does not explain the Colma effect. Consider the following: The gravitational model of 1/r**2 still applies globally to two bodies in gravitational interaction -- that is a given for old model and new. But -- with the new model, the 1/r**2 does not apply ( locally ) during the brief shadow effect -- a new nonlinear perturbation effect is added. If you do not believe this, you should look up the historical Bradley Siderographs on the Astrikos web site. For some reason, the planets do have an effect. I have puzzled over this for years. Obviously whatever it is is not inverse square law. And -- the best guess that I have right now is the nonlinear 'shadow' effect. This model needs the confirmation of the Colma effect that the British physicist is working on -- during the next solar eclipse.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:17
LGB (@ Greg...Communication satellites) ID#269409:
Good post..and also, I would not that the meteor storm this coming November, and another in 1999, will be the most intense in decades, and threatens all our satellites. Most of these grain of sand size projectiles, ( several hundred per hour ) will have the equivelant velocity and damage causing ability of a .22 shell fired into the satellites. ( Which are very poorly protected when it comes to armor against such projectiles )

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:14
LGB (@ Gold & investment manias) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Today's news is filled with reports that Beanie Baby mania has caused a run on McDonalds, cleaning them out of their stock of 200 million or so Beanie Babies in mere days of promo beginning.

This amid reports of folks buying Happy meals and discarding teh food to get the Beanies, folks buying 4 dozen Happy meals at a time, speculators buying the set of McDonald Beanies for $75.000 plus, and other speculators selling earlier Beanies for as much as $5,000.00 !!!

All this for a little stuffed animal. Hmmm, maybe I'll have to rethink that bubble market, SHeep kinda stuff I see discussed here so often!

( Any bets on when the Beanie mania bubble will burst? How much are those Tickle me Elmo dolls that sold for $500 last Christmas goin for? $10 bucks )

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:12
Greg (Gravitational forces yes, but sun spots wipe out communications satellites) ID#249206:
A bigger concern to me is the ten year peak in solar flare activity at that time. Solar flares wipe out communications satellites. We have not had a major break out since our information society has become dependent upon them. Just the odd satellite gets burned.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:08
Aragorn III (Allen...twins--so it would seem, but you're not slower--my COMPUTER is just faster) ID#212323:
Pyramid--thanks for the site. I am dismayed to see Earth alone on the wrong side of the Sun. Kind of blows a once-in-a-lifetime view of the nighttime sky. Damn.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:06
LGB (@ JTF...The Force be with you) ID#269409:
Come over to the dark side is your destiny......

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:05
HighRise (Kitco) ID#401237:

Is anyone else having a problem with the Kitco Charts and other images, along with slow access to this site?


Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:05
LGB (@ Guns & Gold, do they mix (Weekends at Kitco say they do)) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Today's off topic post. The Gold part was just a tease.

Will Suing Gun Manufacturers Save Lives?

By John R. Lott, Jr.
Copyright 1998 Investor's Business Daily
May 27, 1998

Enticed by the proposed $ 516 billion tobacco settlement, some crime-ridden cities are mulling similar class-action
lawsuits against gun makers. The cases may look alike, but the legal arguments are much different. And the
difference is in the data.

Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell first raised the possibility of a city's suing firearms makers to recoup costs from
gun-related injuries and deaths. And if Philadelphia sues, Detroit and Miami may follow.

But the case is much harder to make than these mayors imagine. Simply claiming that murders are committed with
guns is not enough. Unlike tobacco firms, gun makers have powerful arguments pointing to the benefits of gun

Until recently, tobacco suits went nowhere because juries usually found that smokers knew the risks of smoking. But
the states' class-action suit against tobacco firms was different. It emphasized what the companies knew about their
product, pushing what smokers knew about the dangers of their habit to the background. No comparable strategy
exists for guns, since no one denies that guns can kill.

In the tobacco suit, the states relied on specious claims. They argued that smoking costs them money. That was
wrong. Of course, people die from smoking. The question of state health- care costs isn't whether people die -- we
all die sooner or later - but whether the illnesses produced by smoking are more costly.

Smokers live shorter lives. When they get sick, they tend to die relatively quickly. It's true that states must bear
these health-care costs sooner, but that's offset by shorter illnesses. And once the long-term savings to state pension
programs are taken into account, tobacco clearly saves states money.

For obvious reasons, tobacco companies were never comfortable with this argument, and judges weren't
sympathetic. That left the state attorneys general to make wild accounting arguments in which they counted only the
costs and not the benefits to state coffers from smoking-related deaths.

But the cities shouldn't expect to have the same leeway in a gun lawsuit. With city police officers carrying guns, it
will be difficult for cities not to acknowledge some benefits. More important, criminals also tend to attack victims
that they perceive as weak, and guns serve as an important deterrent against crime.

The Justice Department's annual National Crime Victimization Survey shows that while passive behavior is normally
a safer course of action than active resistance, that's not true for all types of crimes or victims.

The chance of serious injury from an attack is 2.5 times greater for women offering no resistance than for those
resisting with a gun. For men, behaving passively is 1.4 times more likely to result in serious injury than resisting
with a gun. People use guns defensively about 2.5 million times each year, and 98% of the time simply brandishing
the weapon is enough to stop an attack.

The defensive nature of guns is further reflected in the different rates of hot burglaries, in which the victim is at
home when a burglar strikes. In Canada and Britain, where gun-control laws are strict, almost half of all burglaries
are hot. In the U.S., where greater gun ownership is allowed, only 13% of burglaries are hot.

Criminals aren't behaving differently by accident. U.S. felons say in surveys that when committing crimes, they
worry more about armed victims than about police.

In my own research on gun ownership rates across states over time, I found that higher gun ownership rates are
associated with dramatically lower crime rates. Further, the poorest people in the most crime-prone areas benefit the
most from gun ownership. Lawsuits that raise the costs of gun purchases will reduce gun ownership and hit poor
people the hardest.

Suing gun makers is surely a lose-lose proposition. If the cities lose, Mayor Rendell is right to worry about the $ 1
million such litigation could cost his constituents alone. If the cities win, law-abiding citizens across the country
will pay much more for the right to protect themselves. And the poor, who can least afford to pay these higher
prices, stand to lose the most.

John R. Lott Jr. is the John M. Olin Law and Economics Fellow at the University of Chicago School of Law and
author of More Guns, Less Crime ( University of Chicago Press, 1998 ) .

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:04
robnoel__A (Report on UPI and reuters...sorry could not post link....USG gets an F for Y2K compliance) ID#410198:
DOD has 600,000 to 900,000 chips that need replacement changing a 1000 a day guess what...not enough time...DA

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:04
JTF (Unusual gravitational effects) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
golum: Now you know why I am interested in the physics of Astroinvesting. I might get a clue to the age-old puzzle of where inertia comes from, and the cause of the gravitational 'force'. There is much that I did not mention that suggests that it may be possible to 'shield' gravity and inertia. I do not expect that this will lead anywhere in my lifetime, but I sincerely hope so -- I would like see the human race reach for the stars.

Gianni Dioro: I think you and I are on the same wavelength. I cannot make head or tails out of Mike Shellers profession, except that Astroinvesting apparently works in competent hands. What interests me is what can be quantified. I know that there is something out there -- as I can see bits and pieces, especially with lunar effects on the markets. The Bradley Siderograph effect is also real, but still mostly over my head. We are at the threshold of an awakening in Physics that will revolutionize our understanding of the Universe. Lets just hope that we have an intact earth, and and intact economic system to allow us to bear the fruits of our endeavors. Here's to the future of humankind! We certainly need things to hope for these days, don't we?

It is my hope that we gold bugs will be able to retain enough assets of value during the difficult times ahead to cushion the likely economic collapse that is looming ahead of us. Someone will be needed to jumpstart the stalled economy. I have much respect for the competence of AG -- but I am not certain that anyone human would have the skills to avoid a US market bubble collapse over the next few years. Hence my interest in a little insurance for us all.

I would love to be financially independent, and just focus on sponsoring 'zero point energy' research. But -- that is not in the cards.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 16:01
RETIRED SOLDIER (Paradigm) ID#347235:
As my cousin redneck would say. Ain't dat 20 cents?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 15:53
Allen(USA) (Gollum) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Doesn't it appear to you that Greenspan looks as if he had at one time had a hold on one of the Rings I only appeal to your experience here.

As for their ability, to me it will look like they are in control until they are not in control. That is, I think they are benefiting from the context. When things dump they could be doing the very same things they are doing now, only the context will have taken a jerking lurch to the left, leaving them with steering wheel in hand, speeding in thin air ( see Wile E. Coyote on this ) .

There is some talent there; far more than I possess. But it seems that we always credit the big dogs with having created and sustained good times when in fact they have neither created them nor can sustain them beyond their failing momentum. But it makes good light&sound bites. Who knows what BC, RR and AG talked about a few weeks back. But it sure did look like they were in control. What if they were saying 'well, we're toast in six months'? But it looked like they were 'working on things'. Perception and stagecraft.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 15:51
lady_bug (Dan Kennedy on Socialism) ID#310222:
Copyright © 1998 lady_bug/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Without an employer, no employee,.....what did socialism/communism do the last 75 odd years?.......don,t you think it had it's chance, , but , it did not work ! What makes you think it will work now?

Socialism dulls people enthusiasm to excel, why should they? There is no initiation to work harder or longer?

Every one is waiting for hand outs with open hands, gimme , gimme,

where shall it come from?

Free enterprise - capitalism with a healthy dose of socialism-read humanity, IMHO the best way ! Wherever there are fanatics ( blindfolds )

it is dangerous and very unhealthy !!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 15:47
Argent (Down tomorrow) ID#255217:
It might be nice if I mentioned the subject we're supposed to be here for. Imagine that.

I love to see both gold and silver up for a change. Whaddaya wanna bet that it doesn't hold? Either one. Down tomorrow. Color me pessimistic. I WOULD LOVE TO WRONG!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 15:46
LGB (@ Pyramid..planetary alignment) ID#269409:
Great website, thanks. I'll note for the record that it seems to be Y2K compliant also since you can go forward to dates beyond! ( hehehe )

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 15:45
Silverbaron (LGB) ID#289357:
And our biggest export to them is......empty containers.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 15:43
robnoel__A ( use very big words and I'am sure no spellcheck.....but do you know what all those ) ID#410198:
words mean in english.....some of us are a little slow

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 15:43
LGB (Tidal Forces Continued...Asian Tsunami) ID#269409:
My congrats to those here who rightly postulated that the rising dollar, ravished Asian currencies would lead to a Tsunami of Asian imports into the U.S.

A report today on the volumes at the Nation's two busiest ports, L.A. harbor and Santa Monica, reveals that import containers from Asia are up 19% from one year ago, and exports to those countries are down 7%.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 15:41
Allen(USA) (Aragon III) ID#246224:
I always seem to be about 37 minutes behind you in my thinking. Are we twins, and I'm the slower of the two?

Got Au, Ag and $$$.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 15:40
pyramid (Planetary Alignment) ID#217268:
For the curious, this Web site will allow you to look at the alignment of the planets for about any time from 4,000 BC to 4,000 AD ( or thereabouts ) . You just need to use the appropriate calendar and click. May 5, 2000 does show a peculiar alignment. Calculating the effect using the 1/r2 rule would be interesting. The sun and moon, to my way of thinking, are the big swingers here ( pun intended ) .

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 15:33
RETIRED SOLDIER (@ Argent) ID#347235:
If he is like most socialists I have met he doesn't have the cojones to use it.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 15:23
Argent (Squirrel, your 14:30) ID#255217:
My comment: Dan Kennedy may need that gun he totes.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 15:20
RETIRED SOLDIER (Argent, Squirrell) ID#347235:
Argent John Disney and I agree on more than you know, I have come to understand his sense of humor and a lot of his attitudes lately. I disagree with you on the number of people asleep at the wheel, I dont think that there areAS MANY AS YOU THINK.

Squirrel, I just sent this to Dan Kennedy, Your head is in your @ss if you think socialists will take over. Plus a few more choice words.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 15:14
Prometheus (@Studio.r called it, but didn't stay around to watch -) ID#210235:
Turnaround Tuesday, gold spot $291.79 up $2.96.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 15:12
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
Aragorn -- Actually, What 'shape' a bank is in need not matter. This IS a con/confidence game and should the depositors rather put the cash under a mattress, so be it ( IF the feds will allow them to withdraw it! ) .

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 15:08
Argent (RETIRED SOLDIER) ID#255217:
I beg to disagree with your assertion that eventually, the masses wake up. I believe that is wishful thinking. I believe it depends a great deal on WHO the masses are and what kind of pacifiers they have been receiving and for how long. I suggest that the masses who DO wake up, in most instances, were never really asleep in the first place, perhaps just dozing a little. I prefer to accept the premise of A. Lincoln that You can fool ALL of the people SOME of the time, and SOME of the people ALL of the time, but you can't fool ALL of the people ALL of the time! But SOME does not constitute the aggregate. Additionally, there are always SOME who are ALWAYS asleep, and SOME who NEVER sleep ( damned few ) . John Disney is probably one of those.

John Disney's posts may sometimes sit harshly on tender intellects, but if that is true, perhaps it is the intellect that needs reminding that reality itself is frequently harsh, if not brutal. I include myself in that group.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 15:03
J (Gravity and Gold) ID#174239:
Copyright © 1998 J/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
LGB: Lets not be too harsh on the guys who got 'D's in college physics and therfore had to go into the insurance business instead of engineering or research.

JTF: If gravitational observations equally support both old and new theories, then does it matter in this case? Both theories should equally predict that aligning distant Mars, Venus, and Mercury will have effects too small to measure here on Earth.

Perhaps the cumulative effect will make it slightly cheaper to mine dense gold on the side of the earth facing the sun and slightly more expensive to mine it one the side facing away from the sun. Based on this I predict that in May 2000, the profits from gold mines that only work during the day will go up by 0.0000001%.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 15:02
Aragorn III (This may not be gold-related...) ID#212323:
Anyone, what degree of planetary alignment is imminent? Which planets, and what variation? Both sides of the sun or not?

Last fall I was pleased to see during an evening walk Jupiter, Mars, Venus, and Mercury all in the same quarter of the sky. And of course Earth was at hand and just a hint of the Sun. Seeing this with the unaided eye helped strengthen my my appreciation for all the great men who walked before me. These same men, I'm sure, valued gold.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:58
Gollum (@JTF) ID#43185:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The great beauty of alternative hypothesis is that upon
occasion they lead to great breakthroughs that would not
even have been thought of by mainstream orthodox theorists.
Whether gravity and inertial forces arise from the distorion
of the space time continuum or shadowing or quantum
electrodynamic reactive interaction with the vaccum is not
so important as that alternatives continue to elaborated upon
and explored. Pick the right paradigm and one might find
anti gravity and time travel to be not only possible but feasible.
Hopefully though, it would turn out that only large quantities
of gold could be used to drive the neccesary device.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:55
Gianni Dioro__A (JTF Colma effects) ID#384350:
I would assume in a solar eclipse, gravitational effects on the moon might change as well.

This time you will have not only the sun and moon, but a host of other planets as well, all in a line. I think it's the first time this has happened for a very, very long time. If anyone can find a link, I'd appreciate it.

You and LGB obviously know much more about this area than I do. I feel however, that it might just be the straw that breaks the camel's back. There could be a host of quakes, volcanic eruptions, etc.

I am like you, I agree that there is some behavoiral effects on man by the planets, sun, and moon, but I don't consider them strong enough to spend any serious time researching astro-related behavior.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:50
Prometheus (@Squirrel) ID#210235:
Where was that place you did your posting?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:50
Aragorn III (Allen, from your 13:31 I assume you gained inspiration from my 12:26 post.) ID#212323:
Copyright © 1998 Aragorn III/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thanks for the good follow-up. I repeat your last paragraph here for emphasis.
For each $ removed from a bank there are [could be] between 8 and 10 dollars of
outstanding loans that become unsupported by the underlying capital
requirements of that bank. At a certain point the bank must borrow
capital to retain its loan portfolio. If the problem is systemic to many
banks or the country or region then interest rates for these interbank
loans rises to high levels, such as has happened in Asia recently. The
question arises, If a bank must borrow at a high rate of interest then
what shape must it be in? Answer:Not good enough to loan them the

I hope others gain insight from our effort to post these thoughts.
got gold?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:49
Prometheus (@Squirrel (re Science fiction)) ID#210235:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:46
James (Gollum@RR & AG re: Fed rates) ID#252150:
I think they are smart enough... But will they be lucky enough?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:46
JTF (Planetary alignments -- continued) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gollum: As you often are -- you are right on the money. Lloyd's is only interested in the pereception of the effect of a planetary alignment near y2k. Namely, if people will pay extra during this time for insurance. That belief need not come from scientific fact. But -- it is hard to quantify perception, and determine how long it will last. No matter what happens, the time near y2k will be perceived as a period of turmoil. Many people will be looking for a sign, whether it has basis in fact or not.

I wonder whay Lloyds has not volunteered to consider insuring for y2k? I doubt I would want to risk that, as it might be like trying to insure Marylin Monroe's legs. Where would the liability end?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:45
jonesy (Final Spot Prices, from Kitco) ID#251166:


June 02, 1998

2:42PM New York Time

Timezone Equivalents

MARKET IS CLOSED ( Will open in 17 hours 45 minutes ) .

Bid / Ask / Change / Low / High


291.00 / 291.50 / +2.80 / +0.97% / 289.50 / 291.90


5.17 / 5.20 / +0.10 / +1.97% / 5.08 / 5.25


370.00 / 371.00 / +5.00 / +1.37% / 364.00 / 374.90


297.00 / 307.00 / +8.50 / +2.95% / 270.00 / 322.00


640.00 / 690.00

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:41
Cage Rattler (Planetary Alignment Non-Effects) ID#33184:
This will be a non-event since the sun exerts approximately 99.85% of the total gravitational influence over the earth.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:37
JTF (Planetary Alignments) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gianni Dioro: I differ with my esteemed colleague LGB about planetary alignments. He is absolutely correct that conventional tidal effects almost exclusively come from the moon and the sun, and not the planets. However, there is a gravitational model which is based on what I call a 'shadow effect'. This would put most conventional physicists into a tizzy, but as Irving Langmuir once said: those who fail to consider the possibilities are condemned not the see the significance of experimental phenomena around them ( paraphrasing ) . This topic is highly controversial, because the model consists of gravitational 'attraction' being due to a nearly isotropic particle ( pressure ) flux of some kind coming from the universe around us. The gravitational force then comes from a shadowing effect -- you can calculate earth-sun or earth-moon 'attraction' and still get the inverse square law - it gives the same answers for gravity. Also, the concept of inertia cannot be explained with conventional physics, but it can with a model like this. There is real data supporting this, as there is a physicist in England studying the 'Colma effect' ( may be misspelled ) whereby there is a 'moire-like' wave pattern seen only at the time of total solar eclpises. He thinks there are very weak gravitational waves passing through the earth during solar eclipses -- with the new supersensitive gravitometers, he thinks he can detect these waves. Makes sense if the elementary particle flux shadowing effect of gravity is correct. There is another study of torsional pendulum anomalies during a solar eclipse in Physical Review ( a mainstream high-powered physics journal ) -- forget the specific reference.

How might this work with planets? The 'shadow' of the planet would have to pass over the earth -- then the effect might be significant, even for distant planets. I do not know which planetary orbits are sufficiently collinear with the earth's orbit for significan shadow effects to happen, but it is very likely that some are -- at least for a period of time. So -- there may be a scientific explanation for certain aspects of Astroinvesting after all!

One thing I've learned over the years is never to assume that anything is total nonsense -- like the link between astronomical events and human behavior. Can't ignore the fact that astroinvestors make money, even if the cause is unknown.

One caveat about planetary alignments, however. The theory I have mentioned is still poorly understood. And the individuals who request advice on the effects of planetary alignments are therefore at risk for getting poor or inaccurate advice. On that item I do agree with LGB.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:32
Squirrel (My post in the libertarian NG dredged up ANTI-GOLD sentiment.) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Tue, 02 Jun 1998 14:22:08 -0400
From: Dan Kennedy ( )

Don't forget that some of us socialists tote guns too, and, if we get our way ( we will eventually ) your gold won't be worth squat!!! Socialism is the *scientific* evolution of government. Yes, for a while, capitalists and socialists will live together...just as modern man and the neanderthal did....but eventually modern man it will be with true socialism ( not state capitalism ) .

So, keep up your watch, as your paranoia is warranted. The true parasities you worry about, however, are the ones who control the gold and make their profit off of other's blood and sweat. Yes, indeed, the capitalists are the true parasites, exploiting the working class for too damn long!! Do you think that if YOU controlled the capital, then the world would be okay? just became the parasite. I'm laughing to myself because you obviously sound insane!!

Wake up and face the world.......socialism is coming and there's nothing you can do to hinder it!!!!!!!!!

See you at the front line......

I thought the above would interest Kitcoites.
What do you think?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:23
Gollum (@LGB) ID#43185:
Although I doubt the EMF from the clock would have nearly
as much gravitational effect as the mass of the clock, I
agree with everything you say. However, I really think
Lloyds of London is really more interested if they can get
someone to pay higher rates than they are in whether there
is actually any valid basis for the increase.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:19
Squirrel (Prometheus - the long view has also been attended to by) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
many very highly and broadly educated people who have researched and experienced the human condition and how, where or whence it may change. These people have authored much literature which explores how future occurences or changes affect humanity as a whole, the sociology of communities and nations, and the psychology and interaction of individuals. We as readers of their works are offered future scenarios down different forks in the road - as it were. For instance, what would be the affects of the widespread application of nanotechnology ( which is being developed as we speak ) ? Many scenarios have been written on that topic. Mozel dismisses it all as science fiction. In many respects, what he envisions is no less a fiction - it is just a possible or probable.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:16
Silverbaron () ID#289357:
Copyright © 1998 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Preacher @ GSR:

What I think may be coming, is a reversal in the GSR from the bottom of the channel, back down to test its previous low - This should be good for the price of silver. If the GSR begins falling again, the direction for gold - would not be easy to predict. All this is only speculation for now, as the ratio has stalled for a few days, but not turned down yet.

Gianni Dioro:

I find all this weird/counterculture/fringe stuff entertaining, and frequently even interesting, as there may be a hidden truth somewhere in there. There does seem to be something there with certain aspects of financial astrology. However, I rarely take any of it seriously, and certainly don't plan my life around it. On the 5/5/2000 planetary lineup question, I think LGB has it just about right. A moon-sun combination ( as in an eclipse ) would have a tremendously stronger gravity effect on earth.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:15
KMTMAN@VANCOUVER (Double Bottom Formation 1970 to date) ID#270315:
Copyright © 1998 KMTMAN@VANCOUVER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

2 Cents/3 Cents
½ Dimes/Dimes
Half Dollars
Silver Dollars
Gold Dollars
$2.50 Gold
$3 & $4 Gold
$5 Gold
$10 Gold
$20 Gold

Gold Spot Price ( 1970 to date )
The graph below shows historic information about the coin index. The y-axis measures the value of the index and the x-axis measures the date in history

1 year | 3 years | 10 years | 1970 to date | Summary

©1998 Collectors Universe LLC. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part in any form or medium without express written permission of Collectors Universe LLC is prohibited. CU3000, CoinLinks, Coin Universe and NumisNet and their respective logos are registered trademarks of Collectors Universe.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:11
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
Retired Soldier -- Agreed, but if one has a gun pointed at his head, it largely makes no difference whether one likes it or not. One either 'does' or 'dies', or makes an escape. The where to make an escape to is now very elusive if not non-existent. Choices. Always choices!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:10
FOX-MAN__A (Current Prices as of 14:10 et) ID#288186:
Aug Comex Gold @ 292.90
July Comex Silver @ 5.160

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:06
Prometheus (@The art of the long view (WHY I ALWAYS READ MOZEL)) ID#210235:
Copyright © 1998 Prometheus/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Peter Schwartz wrote this wonderful book which I will again recommend, THE ART OF THE LONG VIEW. Here's a quick peek at the intro, describing a method for investigationg important decisions called the Scenario process.

In a scenario process, managers invent and then consider, in depth, several varied stories of equally plausible futures. The stories are carefully researched, full of relevant detail, oriented towards real-life decisions, and designed ( one hopes ) to bring forward surprises and unexpected leaps of understanding. Together, the scenarios comprise a tool for ordering one's perceptions. The point is not to pick one preferred future, and hope for it to come to pass . . . Nor it the point to find the most probably future and adapt to it or bet the company on it. Rather, the point is to make strategic decisions that will be sound for all plausible futures. No matter what future takes place, you are much more likely to be ready for it - and influential in it - if you have thought seriously about scenarios.

You or I may not embrace Mozel's scenarios as logical in terms of our daily life experience. But I fear that more and more, I am finding evidence of the collapse of constitutional government as he describes it. If I hadn't read him, I wouldn't have started looking. Here's an example I found just this morning:

As for the common law ideas, many here are decendents of freemen, and look to the common law as our shared heritage, about which we know next to nothing. I am discovering a newly shared kinship of ideas with my ancestors, hard to put a price on that.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:05
RETIRED SOLDIER (Eldorado @ the scene) ID#347235:
About the only people that like the chains are liberal commiecrats that would vote for the coward erect and his buddies.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:05
Gianni Dioro__A (LGB, LLoyd's of London) ID#384350:
Maybe you can get a job as a consultant for LLoyd's. They seem to be taking it seriously.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 14:02
Avalon (Neutral Nations aided Nazis;) ID#254269:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:59
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
Retired Soldier -- Nazi Germany didn't work either. But you notice it didn't fall from the inside neither! Yes, people can and do wake up. Sometimes to find themselves bound in chains! Generally it's best to open ones eyes before that day. 'Course, some people DO like those chains and wear them proudly!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:55
RETIRED SOLDIER (@ John Disney) ID#347235:
John, don't give up the fight, that is the only way the wackos can win! As long as we fight it, they can't win. I speak with people daily who won't roll over and play dead as I won't and hope the smart people here never will. Jere

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:54
LGB (@ Gianni Dioro.....Planetary Linement) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Apologies for injecting some Rocket science background into the issue here...but when it comes to the gravitational pull of the planets on Earth, aligned or otherwise, and aligned with Sun/Moon or otherwise...their effect is so infintesimally small, ( compared to the Moon and Sun ) that you might as well postulate that spitting in the ocean might cause a tidal wave.

Variations in global air pressue, Sun and Moon's gravitational pull, ground water seepage based on unusual rainfall or lack thereof, and a lot of other natural phenomena, are so much stronger than the puny influences of the other bodies in the solar system, as to render their alignment completely meaningless.

The EMF from the clock on your wall, has more gravitational influence over you, than the combined effect of all the planets in alignment. The Sun and Moon exert thousands of times the pull on teh Earth.... yet we seldom here about their combined or opposed pull causing worldwide calamities.... yet we can see with our own eyes, the effect on the tides, and even the earth's crust of those massive gravitational forces.

Planetary alignment is interesting.....but the effect on the Earth at these distances will be Zero. ( Unless you want to talk potential metaphysical effects )

Sign me...professional in the field of orbital sciences and gravity

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:49
John Disney__A (I dont think so) ID#24135:
RT ..
the masses arent as smart as they
used to be .. plus NOW they have
been socially engineered .. be thankful
at least one guy tries to fight it.
I gave up a long time back.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:48
Gollum (@Allen(USA)) ID#35571:
It is possible for the Fed to lower rates without our bubble becoming
a bubble bath. They would need to let the markets decline, and the
economy slow a bit first. Then they need to lower rates enough to
just bring things into a soft landing rather than a crash.

It's tricky becasuse if rates are lowered too late or too much demand
for the dollar will slaken too quicky taking liquidity out of the economy
rather than maintaining or adding it.

I don't think they are smart enough. Any bets?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:47
Preacher (Novice, Thanx, I got to the sight) ID#225273:
Everything is Aok on K2.

I looked at the chart of the GSR. I think you are saying a rise in that ratio should be good for gold. Is this correct?

The Preacher

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:45
John Disney__A (XAU and homestake puts ) ID#24135:
To anyone ..
Was taken out of june 70 XAU puts
at 1 3/8 after buying last week at
3/4. They hit 2 3/8 yesterday. I was
robbed. But 50% not bad and covers loss
on some deeps I sold. Now buying Homestake
puts july striking 10... cheap ..
Hope to sell more deeps tomorrow ..
buyers should surface.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:39
Avalon (Quote of the day; ) ID#254269:
There is no gain in arguing with the market . Gene Inger

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:37
Gianni Dioro__A (Silverbaron, The Fifth Day of May 2000) ID#384350:
This is real. The planets will be align themselves. The gravitational effects on the earth could be enormous.

LLoyd's of London has set up a millennium study group to examine the possible effects of the planetary alignment due to occur in May, 2000. The conjunction of planets, which includes Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn plus the sun and the moon, is predicted to generate a collective fravitational pull that could instigate earthquakes, tidal waves and volcanic eruptions.

The study group, formed by DP Mann, one of the biggest non-maritime syndicates at LLoyd's, has asked Dr Julian Salt, an insurance expert specialising in risks posed by natural perils, to examine the possible threat for a seminar for LLoyd's directors and underwriters.

-from Nexus
( sources: The Sunday Times, 3 may 98
The Australian, 4 may 98 )

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:36
RETIRED SOLDIER (Mozel again) ID#347235:
I agree that Mozel is probably a very smart person, probably smarter than I as many of you are. I just think he is wasting his intellect with this single minded insisting on a worldwide conspiracy. The NWO,OWC and all that. IT wont work! That has been proven with the downfall of every large empire in history, eventually the masses DO wake up. Shalom

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:32
NightWriter (Good day) ID#390415:
XAU up 3.4%

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:31
Allen(USA) (The makings of great drama ahead) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Our economy ( USA ) has been steaming along steadily with ( historically low and lowering ) unemployment and inflation ( as reported by the government ) has not ramped up. FOMC tottered on the brink of a minor rate hike but knows that this would draw even more captial to the US markets. Instead ( as conjectured by Crudelle ) there may be some rational for actually lowering rates in the USA as a means of slowing the movement of capital into the US dollar.

If this happens it is an interesting capitulation to the Asian problem ( including Russia and other indirectly affected economies ) . The problem would be that our already bubble based economy would become a veritable bubble bath. Currently our dollar is very uncompetitive overseas. If more capital flows here then our dollar will become even more overvalued and our exports will become even less salable. This should lead to a devaluation of our currency if there was not so much fear in the forex markets.

The problem here is one of fear and flight rather than one of fundemental soundness. The US$ and markets are becoming valued by the relative 'not-ness' factor: not Thailand, not Korea, not Japan, not Mexico not .. . The issue here is 'could the folks who are motivated by fear become the problem as they slosh about running from one catastrophy and then from another. Martin Armstrong seems to think this is a very big concern, estimating US$10 or 12 Trillion of money so motivated.

If to much frightened money washes ashore here, then when it leaves it will create one heck of a mess ( devaluation, interest escalation, marlet slumps ) . But why would it leave and where would it go?

When freightened money learns that all the world's 'systems' are about as secure as a row of grass huts in a hurricane then I suspect they will try to move this wealth from systems virtual wealth into real things. A real thing does not require a system to exist. I don't think we have ever seen such a disenfranchisement of 'money' from the system before.

For each $ removed from a bank there are between 8 and 10 dollars of outstanding loans that become unsupported by the underlying capital requirements of that bank. At a certain point the bank must borrow capital to retain its loan portfolio. If the problem is systemic to many banks or the country or region then interest rates for these interbank loans rises to high levels, such as has happened in Asia recently. The question arises, If a bank must borrow at a high rate of interest then what shape must it be in? Answer:Not good enough to loan them the money.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:30
Preacher (APH & Markets) ID#225273:
Copyright © 1998 Preacher/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thank you APH, I'll certainly keep that advice in mind. I bought some SSO this morning at C$4.60 and am still trying to get some more. Go Silver... Go Gold.

To all:
Gold and silver are not steadily deteriorating as the day wears on and neither is the XAU. Gold is now up $3.10, which although not the high for the day, is the highest at any time I've checked on it.

Last week I posted that David Marantette said that a cycle low would come in gold on May 31 and this should give us a tradable rally. It looks like we're there. Six or seven more dollars on the gold price should bring some profits on AZS and BGO which I'm in.

I also bought some Guyana Goldfields ( GGFI:Canadian Dealer Network ) yesterday. Drill results are pending and I hear through the grapevine they will be very good.

The Preacher

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:26
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
Retired soldier -- Not I, said the cat!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:25
Thanks, Sharefin, for putting Mozel's words together. Reading this guy is an adventure in thinking out of the box. Mozel is truly a force unto himself. There is an historical perspective here that is virtually unavailable elsewhere.

No one can be a great thinker who does not realize that, as a thinker, he must follow his intellect to whatever conclusions it may lead. John Stuart Mill

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:22
Silverbaron (sharefin) ID#289357:

Just goes to show ya - you pays your money, and takes your choice. Very interesting how people have different opinions.....

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:20
Silverbaron (sharefin) ID#289357:

I sure hope this set of transcripts doesn't find its way to fame and fortune as ANOTHER's did. There are very many smart people here, but I think nearly all of us ( myself included ) are in awe of mozel's intellect and his insights. Thanks very much for the effort in putting this together.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:20
RETIRED SOLDIER (Sharefin) ID#347235:
Who cares about Mozels transcripts? Hec has wasted more bandwidth
than anybody on this forum with his relentless postings about banks, common law and other fearmongering. I asked him for clarification on his raves about executive orders and he got sarcastic about it. You posted a source for executive orders and I went there. Read many of them and fail to find most of what he is ranting about. I am sure we all have better things to do with our time than read all of his fantasies at one sitting.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:19
Gollum (goblin) ID#35571:
Whichever goblin had been stepping on gold in New York right after the
London market closed seems to have taken a vacation day.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:17
gagnrad (Gold Quote URL) ID#43460:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:12
sharefin (Mozel's transcripts) ID#284255:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:05
ravenfire (anyone taken a look at Russia's SE today?) ID#333126:^MTMS&d=t

sure looks like volatility big time... hehe ...

anyone wanna punt on when the gold bull is gonna start ( for real this time ) ?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:04
APH (Silver) ID#254201:
Preacher don't doubt what you see.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 13:01
Frustrated (HighRise) ID#298259:
Did you check on Pegasus lately, looking a lot better than 10 cents did.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:50
EB (new email......) ID#230216:
ya like that 2000 part
for me mates........ work

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:45
in the US it is ballot day today. This is just a gentle reminder. Now......git yer asses out there and vote......... ( I don't want any NZer's telling me that MY country ain't 'free' ) .

Home, home on the range.......

where EB plays golf and frolics free all day

where seldom is heard ( or listened to )

a discouraging word ( unless you are 'down under' )

and the skies couldn't be bluer all day........


now, go vote. lose the jockies and be real free


Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:42
Silverbaron (preacher @ silver) ID#289357:

As I noted to JTF the other day...

A similar situation may be occurring with the Gold/Silver ratio....
that is - rising up to, and reversing at/near the bottom of the previous downtrend channel. A reversal here would be bullish for silver unless gold simultaneously took a dive. A GSR chart can be found at

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:42
Novice (Preacher) ID#375108:
K-II appears to be operational. $250 gold predicted there, in typical K-II fashion. Agree with you that this afternoon will be important in determining the price of Au, short-term. BTW, Abbey Joseph Cohen was trotted out this morning to say the markets are going up... Hmmmmm. Where's Joe Battapaglia? Regards, N

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:42
kitkat (New Home Sales up 5.2%) ID#218388:
Copyright © 1998 kitkat/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

New home sales jump 5.2
Leading indicators nudge up 0.1 percent
That's cause they are cheaper now, right F*?

WASHINGTON, June 2 —New home sales
in the United States jumped 5.2 percent
to a new record in April, propelled by a
home-buying spree in the South. Sales
rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate
of 888,000, the most since the
government began tracking them in
1963, the Commerce Department said

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:38
New post today on this site by friend of ANOTHER ( ! ) ( 2 is better than 1 ? )
I used to think that ANOTHER's posts were sometime challenging and I was openminded ( not as vehement anyway as some of his detractors ) .
If I am against ad hominem attacks and everybody has a right to make calls on this site and choose whatever handle he likes, ANOTHER's bashers had the positive impact of forcing people to scrutinize his thoughts with an enhanced critical bias.
The concept of oil- gold relationship if not new was exposed under a different light by ANOTHER with emphasis on the BEIRUT agreement and its implications.
However , ANOTHER thoughts , seems now somewhat repetitive and without substance ( I know some will say it never had any )
So, I think the likelihood of a set up operation to promote a web site stands now at 50/50.
What bothers me is that the GOLD market holds its breath on ECB GOLD reserves in %. GREAT.ANOTHER bases his whole analysis on this concept and thinks a tremendous shift of liquidity will favor the EURO because GOLD will somewhat back ECB's reserves.Let 's not forget that it will only be intervention reserves.The money supply won't be backed by GOLD in any official way not to mention convertibility.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:38
NJ (Sequin) ID#20748:
Thanks for the information and comment.

Decisions made by ECB are very important to the course of POG. As these are going to be made within the next few weeks, we should all keep a collective ear to the ground and share the information.

Thanks again.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:31
RETIRED SOLDIER (Razer) ID#347235:
Don't laugh it should work.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:30
RayZer (correction...) ID#408147:
Actually, the year after 199F is 19A0 -- LOTS mores yours to correct the Y2K bug... ( 19A1, 19A2...19Bx...19Fx..1Axx, 1Bxx ,1Cxx..., 1Fxx, 1FFF, 2000!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:29
Preacher (K2 & Market Comments) ID#225273:
Copyright © 1998 Preacher/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Has Bart closed down K2? I tried to tune in for the daily comedy routine and haven't been able to access it.

Gold has found support at the level of the March low and has made a sturdy bounce off that level. This afternoon will tell us a lot. If we see a continuation of the move or even if it holds this level, that will be a good sign.
But if we get a slow and steady deterioration throughout the day, then we're right back where we were.
My immediate target is the $300 level, around which gold will run into the bottom of the trend line it broke through last week.

The XAU has also bounced off its March lows. The same comments I made on gold apply to the XAU. My immediate target is the 80 level, where the XAU will kiss the bottom of the trend line it broke last week.

Silver has begun to move higher from very oversold levels on both its daily and weekly chart. Its 200-day MA sits at 5.73, so this would be target #1.
Silver will have to break over three barriers to resume its bull market. The 200-day MA is the first one, in my mind.

As bearish as I feel, this could be the start of something big. But I doubt it.

The Preacher

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:27
RayZer (News flash!) ID#408147:
In light of the seriousness of the Y2K problems Congress has just passed a bill to convert our date system to the hexadecimal system. The dates 1998 and 1999 will remain as notated, but the years after 1999 will now be 199A, 199B, 199C, 199D, 199E, 199F and 2000. This gives business an extra six years to correct their Y2K bugs.

On a similar note, Microsoft expects Window 9B to be released by 199D.

( snicker )

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:26
kitkat (@GBL) ID#218388:
:- ) ) You sound just like him!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:26
Aragorn III (The FED and interest rates...) ID#212323:
Copyright © 1998 Aragorn III/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
In an ideal world, a government would look after its citizens' well being rather than its own self interest--this rarely happens. Government functions to maintain itself above all others.

Accepting that, why would anyone entertain the notion that the FED, a private banking corporation, would do ANYTHING other than what is in the best interest of its member banks?

With the unprecedented stock market bull, it is clear that savings accounts have been drained for investment on Wall St. Further, we have all seen advertisements or read articles that point up the fact that people have even obtained loans to further invest on Wall St. As twisted as they are to begin with, the Rules of Banking have nonetheless NOT been repealed. Fractional reserve requirements are still in place, and liabilities vs assets remain subject to scrutiny.

Given the the flight of private cash from banks, does it seem likely to anyone that member banks might have to BORROW cash from the Federal Reserve to maintain the required balances against the outstanding loans? To raise the interest rate is to put the screws to ALL the member banks who have almost certainly borrowed Fed money to offset the flight of individual savings accounts. Additionally, NEW loans cannot be made without the requisite reserves on hand. When private money is absent, these reserves can ( and would ) be borrowed from other banks. Keep in mind that banks make their money through interest on outstanding loans. Do you think that the Fed has much choice, as a self-serving corporation, in regard to its decision on the direction to move interest rates? They won't be going up.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:25
NJ (ECB) ID#20748:
D.A. : I was out for a bit, hence the delay in responding. Many thanks for the information.

Decisions made by ECB are pivotal to the price of POG. So do please pass along any information that comes your way. One of these days we shall know the reasons behind the European CB sales and everything will then become crystal clear. In the meantime I confess to being one among many other blind men trying to describe an elephant by the sense of touch ( POG ) alone.

Were you the trading house cited by our illustrious friend at PEI ?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:21
Mike Stewart (Schippi) ID#270253:
I built the Toronto Gold Mining Index McClellan Summation Index several years ago. It is volume adjusted to compare with the NYSE McClellan Oscillator/Summation Index. I get the daily numbers from the Globe and Mail and enter them into a Lotus spreadsheet. I could post more details in my weekly technical update if people want to see it.

I use the Summation index to find low risk entry points on a long term basis.

For more info on the McClellan Summation Index, do a search and several documents will come up.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:21
HopeFull (FACES) ID#402148:
It's cause old faces have lost all their money.


Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:20
LGB (@ REHTONA...Gold Thoughts) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Earth waves and flashes of “Big” light beneath all, between Near and far East, reveal more than we can see. India, Asia, Indonesia. Change will soon show itself inside, as we see the only the tremors of the outside.Rivers of yellow and white will flow from these places as they seek paper of the West.

Leaders of state banking, are now revealing the new way of thought, for the “Bear to the North”. Ruble’s become fit for wiping orifices, as all that has value, takes flight across borders. See how foreign paper, takes wing and becomes paper of the West. “Whiffs” of deflation, mean some things held precious will fall. Oil, Gold, commodes ...that is commoddities. These can be had for less paper, in future days, as viral spread of devalue diseases goes worldwide.

Open selling by Northern bankers, will lead to rumor of CB sale to the South. EU will not give protection to precious yellow, as it loses appeal from this “open” selling. Can a government own oil and sell it for paper? A big northen oil maker,finds no buyers to trade for paper of the West. This governing, loses heart as no bids are found for the oil. This reveals the new thought which will spread to all places to the South and East.

A minor sell of Gold and Silver from merchant Bear of the North, sends a new message. “Bring Gold back to the $ 280 to $310 level”. This will be hard as it may create a “rush to cover” for saddened Longs. These caught the $311 wave, wishing for lofty heights. Let us watch closely as this Old Gold market, behaves “as before”, yes?. Thank you.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:19
lady_bug (no faces) ID#310222:
......hope you are right ! I am new in here, but been a gold bug for a while

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 12:08
kitkat (New Kitcoites - Welcome) ID#218388:
Last November when I started posting on Kitco, someone remarked on the flurry of new faces at Kitco. It was noted that the same thing had happened just before the last great Gold Bull. There do seem to be a lot of new names posting. Or am I seeing things again

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:52
Schippi (McClellan Gold Index) ID#93199:
Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:19
Mike Stewart ( Technical Update ) ID#270253:
Good day to those patient souls at Kitco.

The Toronto Mining Issue McClellan Summation Index continues to decline.

How or where can you obtain this McCellan gold Index

Thanks in advance!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:52
Maverick (Buffett and Silver) ID#34761:
Agreed, the NY Times article wasn't very meaningful - probably there to show that even an investor as astute as WB can't make money investing in a barbaric metal. If you believe that PM's prices staying low are a necessity to continue the status quo - high US dollar, bubble equities, and William the Erect maintaining residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, this article was spread by the media with malice aforethought.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:50
Gusto Oro (Selby 11:39) ID#377235:
Very well stated Selby. --AG

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:49
sharefin (Avalon - and then you read this?.) ID#284255:
Asia gears up for the onslaught of Y2K
Start banking on a euro bug
Millennium bug seen holding world economy to ransom
``I have got my finger on the trigger. If I don't see any specifics from the G-8 by the middle of June, I will be raising the odds of a severe global recession from 60 per cent closer to 100 per cent,'
IT Japan 2000
Systemic disruption in the financial markets in particular could cause critical damage and loss of credibility to every firm in the supply chain for a given industry, and across industries globally,
Too little too late.
And for the snake oil salesmen;
A crash course in `catastrophobia'

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:47
chas (Mike Stewart re your 10:19) ID#342315:
Your comment re S&P - ..a likely top and subsequent bear.. Can you expand a little on this part of your comments? Thanx, Charlie

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:40
JTF (Intraday Charts -- Dow and SP-500) ID#57232:
All: It does look like the Oldman was right -- that rally last wednesday failed to follow through. Now even the Dow is drooping a bit -- not what you expect to see with 'flight to safety'. And -- the Nasdaq really looks bad.

So -- are we waiting for some sort of signal for the market rally to continue? Perhaps we have to cycle down one more time -- a significant drop like Jeil has predicted? Or -- has the confidence in this 'permabull' ended?

As Oldman said, the boomer bulls will not give up easily, no matter what happens. So -- where are they? Waiting for the verdict on BC?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:39
Selby (miles__A) ID#286230:
I estimate that only 1% or less of the population has to know about YK2 and these are the people who will get it fixed or not. The other 99% are along for the ride and most of them don't know they are on the train--and it wouldn't matter if they did.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:39
Preacher (Mahathir & ANOTHER) ID#225273:

For what it's worth, the theory put out by Mahathir is essentially the same explanation ANOTHER gave for the currency crisis in Asia.

The Preacher

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:35
Frustrated (ORCA_A ...try this...) ID#298259:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:32
Prometheus (@on a serious note . . .) ID#210235:
Copyright © 1998 Prometheus/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

A college professor had just finished explaining an important research project to his class. He emphasized that this paper was an absolute requirement for passing his class, and that there would be only two acceptable excuses for being late: A medically certifiable illness or a death in the student's immediate family. A smart-alec student waved his hand and spoke up. But, what about extreme sexual exhaustion, professor?

As you would expect, the class exploded in laughter. When the students had finally settled down, the professor froze the young man with a glaring look. Well, he responded, I guess you'll just have to learn to write with your other hand.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:31
sharefin (Not now but soon?) ID#284255:
We will have the opportunity of purchasing PM's at bargain prices.
I go along with PEI's report.

This was so in Asia.
This will be so as this global financial contagion
Travels the globe.

Debts will be paid in real assets
When ones paper buys little.

When this wave finally hits the US
After that, then we will see gold shine.

Doesn't sound nice.
But isn't this what's happening?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:30
ORCA__A (USAGOLD.... ) ID#231337:
Has anyone been able to access the USAGOLD site today? I have not been able to access it since early yesterday.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:27
Gollum (@Aragorn III ) ID#43185:
I agree. Much of what is supposed to be analysis is just tripe
put out by some guy who hasn't got a clue but he does have a
deadline to meet.

And a lot of the rest of it is put out by somebody like Mr. PEI
who has a hidden agenda.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:26
chas (Pu'ukani) ID#342315:
How are you with the Kahuna's? They seem to be pretty much on the ball. Like to hear from you on this, email if you

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:26
a.j. (The Boys in Cammo Clothing-) ID#257136:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:24
miles__A (Selby.) ID#344236:
Copyright © 1998 miles__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You are absolutely right. There are about only 400 or so working days left before we find out who's right and wrong. My suspicion is that we will find out long before then....
Just imagine if it is actually going to happen though...
My kids think I'm a bit whacko. I sit at my computer monitor, tutt tutting every now and then as I chance upon another bit of Y2K stuff.
I'm not paranoid. ( At least that's what my psychiatrist says and I trust him implicitly.... )
But the bottom line is this.
We are about to be hit by a big steam train and 80% of the population is going to look at its headlights in a startled way - much like a cute little deer does before its hit by the lead messenger and meets its doom.
There is enough sh1t in the world at the moment; India/Pakistan/Albania/Yugoslavia/Dow Jones/El Nino etc etc etc.
The year 2000 stuff is just another bit of the jig saw puzzle that we have to contend with as we hit the new millenium.
All I can say to my 3 kids is that I love them. THAT I KNOW FOR CERTAIN!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:21
Aragorn III (Is THIS tripe what passes for standard market analysis these days?) ID#212323:
Dow trims morning gains, bargain hunters buy techs
NEW YORK, June 2 ( Reuters ) - Blue chips pared most early gains Tuesday
morning but bargain hunters kept technology issues near their highs. [I ask, Where are the bargains if they are near their highs?!]
Dealers said there was little fundamental news driving the market and
the gains were more a technical reaction to Monday's sharp sell-off on
the tech-heavy Nasdaq. [So now we know what drives the *smart money*]

The techs got overdone on the downside and we saw some bottom fishers
come in on relatively light volume, said Peter Coolidge, senior equity
trader at Brean Murray & Co. But it was not a broad-based rally. There
is a top to this market. [Bottom fishing! On the high flying Nasdaq! This entire quote hangs together like toilet paper in the rain. And the term overdone is the single-most meaningless word that is 'over'used in reporting the financial news.]

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:21
aurator (I hear the Phrase Good as gold several times a day, it warms my cockles....) ID#257148:
Your 22:23 yesterday re the new loonies and toonies. I had never seen these new coins, my first day in Toronto last June, my nephew escorted me to the underground, we were heading to a cybercafe on Young St. I handed over a $10, and the ticket collector muttered something about something not working and handed me some coins. I looked at them and I thought he had given me subway tokens, I turned to my nephew in extreme puzzlement and asked where do I put these tokens, the queue of very polite citizens grew longer as I wrestled with the difference between tokens and money. I took it as an opportunity to start to to talk to him about real money. Thing is, you put real money in anyone's hands and they can feel its history, weigh its worth, good as gold.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:15
JTF (Thoughts: Dollar last 'currency on earth'? Perhaps) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: Could be, in a sense.

Tent Analogy:

Someone on Kitco posted the tent analogy to the world economy, with the US and Europe being the central pillars. The idea was that the less substantial or outright shaky economies would go first, with the US and Europe last. Makes sense. Gold may not rally until the central pillars weaken.

Musical Chairs:

Another analogy is the 'musical chairs' one -- the 'fiat' currency mindset being what it is, every time the music stops, there is one less 'fiat market' chair for the money to 'flee' to. Finally there is only one chair remaining. Unfortunately, it seems that the shift to hard assets will not begin in earnest until that last chair is the only one left. Where does the 'smart' money flee to then, except hard assets?

World Financial Crisis effect:

Often if there is a world financial crisis of some kind, gold and the US dollar go up together ( assuming the US dollar did not cause the crisis ) . Recently it seems only the US dollar is going up, but not gold. This is probably due to the fact that deflation the world over is dominant, causing many CB's and countries to sell or loan gold. This is very different from the 1993 gold rally when gold and the Dollar went up together, or the inflationary times of the 60's and 70's when gold went up. However, just wait till all the gold selling is over, and the US dollar is one of the few currencies that have not been devalued. Then a US dollar-based crisis is more likely as the 'flight to safety' from other currencies/markets is over. Then -- gold will go up -- not down.

None of the above gives us a clue as to the precise 'when' gold will rally. But it does give some insight into the process. Interesting times we live in. I never imagined how determined the 'fiat' currency addicts are -- they are worse than gold bugs. It appears that they will not give up until the there is only one chair left.

Now, if the US markets start to droop all on their own, due to internal problems of some kind ( there are many possibilities ) , then the shift to gold will be accelerated. Its tough being a gold bug when you know that a gold rally may be a bad sign -- but I certainly don't plan to follow the Lemmings off the next cliff.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:14
Midas__A (@goldfevr, your 9:37 - Mahathir of Malaysia is 100% Right, The attack dogs like Soros were unleashed) ID#340459:
Copyright © 1998 Midas__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
on S.Asian currencies and after decimatating it for e.g: Thai,Indo,Korea, IMF moves in with lending based in US paper, then rates are raised and local govt asked to devalue their currencies, squeeze credit to biz, thereby screwing them more and procuring all natural resources and tangible assets of a target country by yoke of ( US paper ) debt.

This Financial COLD WAR is being waged by International Finance Mafia in Asia, Eastern Europe, S. America and elsewhere with shrewd planning and loaning of US paper accounts ( US currency is backed by NOTHING but a promise ) and with strategic moves by Soros/IMF/Moody's. These entities work in tandem and slowly turning poor nations into labour concentration camps by financial manipulations of epic proportions.

Atleast, Mahathir has the BALLS to speak out instead of lying low and taking it like the Japenese ( The Richest creditor of the world and yet piss poor according to Wall St. economics and Moody's CREDIT ( ? ) evaluation )


Bema is a good buy today..

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:14
Midas__A (@goldfevr, your 9:37 - Mahathir of Malaysia is 100% Right, The attack dogs like Soros were unleashed) ID#340459:
Copyright © 1998 Midas__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
on S.Asian currencies and after decimatating it for e.g: Thai,Indo,Korea, IMF moves in with lending based in US paper, then rates are raised and local govt asked to devalue their currencies, squeeze credit to biz, thereby screwing them more and procuring all natural resources and tangible assets of a target country by yoke of ( US paper ) debt.

This Financial COLD WAR is being waged by International Finance Mafia in Asia, Eastern Europe, S. America and elsewhere with shrewd planning and loaning of US paper accounts ( US currency is backed by NOTHING but a promise ) and with strategic moves by Soros/IMF/Moody's. These entities work in tandem and slowly turning poor nations into labour concentration camps by financial manipulations of epic proportions.

Atleast, Mahathir has the BALLS to speak out instead of lying low and taking it like the Japenese ( The Richest creditor of the world and yet piss poor according to Wall St. economics and Moody's CREDIT ( ? ) evaluation )


Bema is a good buy today..

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:05
Selby (miles__A) ID#286230:
Unlike the uncertainty of the price of gold the YK2 problem and its fix are moving ahead daily to the turn of the century and we will know very soon whether the problem was dealt with or not. i

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 11:03
fergie__A (Buffett and Silver) ID#14431:
Noticed the earlier posts about how Buffett has lost money on his silver investment. I remember a quote from Buffett: Never buy a stock that you wouldn't be delighted to see fall by 20%, so you can buy more.

Think Buffett is upset about being under water a little on his silver investment? Not a chance. He'll buy more!


Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:58
Cage Rattler (Apologies - obviously I meant $291 !!!!) ID#33184:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:55
John Disney__A (I agree ..) ID#24135:
Sharefin ..
with what you said .. I see this
present runup as a nice chance to redude
positions in a pleasant way .. was
stymied on Deeps today .. will try
again tomorow.
For tsclaw .. gold 10 minutes
ago was 291-291.5 spot. You will
not miss any boats regardless of what
you may hear over the next few days.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:55
tsclaw (@JohnDisney) ID#327123:
The Harmony stock holders meeting is at 1400 S.A. time on June 10.

They are having an option holder meeting immediately after. The whole thing is to deal with odd lots. apparently there are alot of odd lot holders out there and they want to reduce or eliminate them prior to increasing authorized share capital. I dont have a scanner or I would post the important parts.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:53
EB (tsclaw) ID#187109:
NO. think wishful thoughts about the white metals


Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:51
miles__A (Selby / Let those with eyes see..) ID#344236:
Copyright © 1998 miles__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The Royal Bank of Canada says that 70% of Canadian businesses have done nothing on y2k.

If this is up to date, then it says Canada will collapse.

If this is old information ( and the page says that it has been updated this spring ) , then the Royal Bank's site is useless. It is on this site that it says that it is working hard on the problem -- no updates regarding its actual progress, however.

* * * * * * * * *

How big is the Y2K problem?

The Y2K problem likely affects about 80 per cent of the world's computer systems, and will cost an estimated $600 billion to correct. In Canada alone it is a $35 billion to $45 billion problem. It's estimated only 30 per cent of Canadian business are doing anything about the problem now. Studies show that only 50 per cent of businesses that may be affected by Y2K problems will be ready to deal with it by the end of 1999. That's why the Royal Bank is raising the issue.



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Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:50
Cage Rattler (My source says gold is $391 - Correct?) ID#33184:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:37
Selby (YK2 in the Land of Ice and Snow) ID#286230:
There was a report yesterday that Canadian private business is spending 12 billion in 1998 to handle the YK2 problem. Federal provincial and municipal governments are also pouring lots of $ into the fix but I have seen no estimate of total government expenditures. It may not prove to be enough but the notion that nobody knows or cares about the issue should be discarded

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:29
Avalon (sharefin. Today's WSJ has Y2K article on Page B2 re effect on small business.) ID#254269:
Quote; only one in six businesses has even looked into the issue with less than 20 months to go according to study by National Federation of Independent Business and Wells Fargo Bank.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:28
D.A. ( ID#7568:
Copyright © 1998 D.A./Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

I don't have any info on the ECB news. The gold market is apparently being driven higher by JP Morgan who called the recent decline and have now reversed themselves and are looking for higher prices in the short term. They apparently put their money on the line and purchased on the order of 150,000 ounces last night.

On the silver side, J.Aron ( Goldman ) is once again the featured buyer and seems to be having a bit more success of it today. There are at least 2 very large shorts in the silver market whose total position may be on the order of .6 buffetts or near 80 million ounces.

The news war, and the price war in silver continues unabated. Last night the boys were at it again on the access market, sweeping it down to try and get low prints. The strategy is starting to lose effect, as each time it is getting absorbed quickly. Mr. PEI is reputed to be on the sell side of these forays. His recent article on the 300 million ounces of silver to come out of Russia would seem to jive with the idea that he is a committed short. As an aside, it very hard for me to believe that the Russians have any meaningful stockpile of any metal, let alone 1.5 billion dollars worth of silver. Their economy has already been through the ringer and under as much pressure as one could imagine short of revolt. Any liquidation of stocks would have occured a long time ago, and you can bet your last ounce that they have been in no position to accumulate new stockpiles. Just how do you think the price of palladium reached $115 in late 1996?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:28
miles__A (John Crudele / US$ soaring like its last curency on earth) ID#344236:
Copyright © 1998 miles__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
WILL the Federal Reserve have to lower interest rates?
As I said before the last Fed Open Market Committee meeting, the Central Bank knew that it needed to raise interest rates to get the stock market bubble under control, but it couldn't because of all the economic trouble overseas.

Since the last Fed meeting on May 19, there have, of course, been several other large problems overseas. Chief among them was the rioting in Indonesia and the meltdown of the Russian economy with the predictable rescue by the International Monetary Fund.

This, on top of the collapse of the Asian economy, has troubled investors worldwide so much that they've piled into the U.S. bond market with such force that interest rates here are dropping dramatically.

What are the chances of an interest-rate hike here?

A number of Fed officials and a bunch of foreign big shots may have wanted rates up in the U.S., but it looks as if the Fed lost its last best chance at the May meeting. The bias toward higher rates adopted by the Fed in March could end up being all talk and no action.

With the dollar soaring like it was the last currency on earth, an interest-rate hike here would make the greenback way too strong.

So, will the Fed - despite concerns about asset inflation, product inflation and excessive money supply growth - actually have to cave into market forces and reduce rates?

If the interest rates on long-term bonds fall to near the rate on shorter-maturity financial instruments, that may be the odd twist that's coming.

Put another guru down as a believer that a stock market crash is coming.

Sir John Templeton, the guy who gave his name to the Templeton Funds, is comparing the U.S. stock market with Tulipmania and says that over the next five years the market could have a 40 percent correction from its top.

In other words, he thinks the Dow Jones industrial average could lose nearly 3,700 of its 9,000 or so points if today's level was the peak.

But Templeton isn't willing to venture a guess as to where the top will be.

I spoke by telephone on Friday with Sir John, who was finishing up work at his Nassau, Bahamas office. I think there's a better than even chance that there will be a 40 percent correction over the next five years, he said. Why? Just history. I've been in this business 55 years and it's very unusual for a stock market not to have a correction.

In fairness to Templeton, he doesn't think a 40 percent decline could be called a crash and he thinks the drop will be orderly. Ten markets are down 80 percent in less than a year recently, he pointed out in order to show what a crash really is.

A 40 percent decline, he said, is just the natural order of things and doesn't even need to be caused by some event. Sometimes it just turns. There was actually no event in 1929.

Prudential Securities is making a case that the stock market is already correcting. But it's a stealth correction.

In the March-April period, for instance, Pru says 60 percent of all over-the-counter stocks lost 20 percent of their value.

And it says this stealth correction isn't over yet.

What has them worried is that second-quarter earnings shouldn't be much better than the first's sluggish results, especially if the Asian recession starts hurting American companies. Since we are already into June, companies should start to get a case of the guilts and will soon be pre-announcing these expected poor results.

The hottest stock on Friday was a company called Bay Networks, which has been moving up steadily on rumors that someone would try to buy it.

One of those someones that have been mentioned is Northern Telecom, a north of the border telecommunications company. And it just so happens that a lot of the trading volume lately - it did more than 8 million shares on Friday - has been coming out of Canada.

Coincidence? A takeover speculator I know says, Those Canadians tend to be prescient on their takeover rumors.

Other possible buyers named are Lucent and Alcatel.

Bay Networks restructured its sales organization last week, with employees apparently finding out only on Tuesday. There has been a debate on Wall Street as to whether this helps or hinders a takeover.

The Canadians apparently think it helps.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:23
tsclaw (GOLD) ID#327123:
I have two sources showing gold up $12.60 @ $300.50. Is this for real?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:22
AUH20 (Sharefin and frustrated) ID#200235:
Sharefin very good advise

Frustrated when the market breaks, the pop will be 30 or 40 dollars per oz.

Buy the market when it is going up, never when it is going down.

We will all know when the bear is over by the huge increase in pog in one days time.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:20
Selby (sharefin ) ID#286230:
Thank you. I have/had a plan to start buying again once gold started up but if it keeps going down I will have to spend more time revising the as the lower cost mines move toward breaking even. I still see nothing to change my mind about a $250 price but the ground seems to be a bit wobbly and that isn't good in the mining business.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:19
Mike Stewart (Technical Update) ID#270253:
Good day to those patient souls at Kitco.

The Toronto Mining Issue McClellan Summation Index continues to decline.
This is no surprise. The zero level has broken and the nest critical level is -300. If is goes through this like a hot knife through butter, more serious decline is coming. I will watch this closely. For cautious investors who wait for the trend to shift, you should wait until the summation index turns upward.

The new lows on Toronto Mining Issues is still above the benchmark 5 issues per day. This week we have seen 10 to 17 new lows per day. This compares well to the peak of 100 new lows late last year and into January 1998. During this period we saw 21 days with more thn 40 new lows in mining stocks. We are nowhere near those levels this time. This could be a good sign, but we want to see new lows dry up to 5 or less issues for several days as an all-clear signal.

The trend is still down until these indicators improve.

On the S&P, i expect a low in here soon as the third wave down ( from the July 1997 +3000 peak ) in the NYSE McClellan Summation Index is completed. It is time for a shopping list to be prepared for a final move upward. The strength and particularly breadth of this move will indicate a likely top and subsequent bear, or if the Summation Index ( mine is issue adjusted ) breaks +3000 we will have a new bullish phase. We have had a healthy stealth correction here. Everything is down but the big blue chips.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:18
Prometheus (@NJ) ID#210235:
Thanks for the heads-up. Darn, that didn't go down well with the morning coffee.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:13

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:11
sharefin (Selby) ID#284255:
Comex cash $278.70 on 9th Jan

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:05
Frustrated (Pu'ukani and kitkat) ID#298259:
This source seems to be pretty reliable. Maybe one day we will see that pop and it will be...real

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:03
Selby (The Low) ID#286230:
I have forgotten. What was the old low for gold exactly?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 10:01
sharefin (As well as - no that couldn't happen - no never.) ID#284255:
A closing BELOW the $280 spot level in gold could send this market down to the $250-$225 area even by July perhaps bringing an end to the bear market. Palladium and Platinum could go into a free-fall and a closing for silver under $5 will spark a drop back to the low to mid $4 range with a risk of dropping to $3.25 moving into next year.

For now, the future is a bit more cloudy than just the Y2K problem.
We suggest CAUTION in just about everything.
The period ahead into 1999 will be a rough ride to say the least.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 09:58
kitkat (All - Re June Gold now 290) ID#218385:
Sorry. Apologies to all, but I triple checked. ( honest I did ) Maybe if I look again it will come true.

@Frustrated - good handle.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 09:58
Pu'ukani (Frustrated) ID#226327:
It may have been a wrong number but something's up. My real time quotes are showing GCQ8 up $3.4 and GCM8 up $3.8. That $301 high is also showing for GCM8 but, as you say, it is probably wrong.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 09:57
Avalon (Don't you guys ever go home ?.............................oh, I forgot..............................) ID#254269:
this is home ! Good morning all.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 09:56
sharefin (NJ - real assets for paper debt.) ID#284255:
These severe economic pressures are the primary cause behind the dollar’s strength. With or without the Euro, turmoil in Russia will provide yet another bullish stimulus for the dollar and a further decline in commodities at least for the next two months. Russia itself is starting to sell whatever it can get its hands on. Those who think that Russia would not sell its gold, silver, palladium and platinum reserves fail to understand the point. Unless the government can lay its hands on as much cash at this time there is a risk that it could fall taking Yeltsin with it. Therefore, there is no strategic plan here at work. Russia is in a crisis mode for its survival.

Even former Russian states are coming under significant pressure. Uzbekistan has already sold 120 tones of its silver reserves just recently, which has contributed to the recent decline. More is likely to appear since Uzbekistan is a net silver producer. Russian banks are now allowed to sell precious metals directly under the new deregulation and the first sales are starting to hit the marketplace. Russia itself has yet another $4 billion in gold and 300+ million ounces of silver, according to our sources. The more deflationary things appear in emerging markets, the more selling of precious metals we expect to see over the next two months.

While gold mines banned together to lift their hedges a few months ago in an attempt to support the gold price, now these same parties risk being downgraded by the credit agencies since they are exposed to the market forces. Should gold break below the $280 level, everything the mines bought back may return to the market in the form of new hedge positions. Those mines that do not protect themselves, could be forced to close this summer.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 09:53
Gianni Dioro__A (Aurator- Tales of Yankee Agression) ID#384350:
I read that NZ recently disallowed exclusive marketing agreements in the country as being monopolistic and harmful to consumers. NZ opened the country for all comers to play on an even playing field.

The US was furious and warned NZ of the Consequences ( Was that a Threat? ) . The US talks about free trade, but only if they benefit.

I noticed about 10-15 years ago, there were mergers, whose advantages at the time weren't the most obvious. Analysts then said, CONTROLLING THE CHANNELS OF DISTRIBUTION IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE IMPORTANT. Maybe there are merits in spite of Microsoft lawyer saying that DOJ demand of carrying Netscape browser is like forcing coke to ship Pepsi. Well if Coke had a monopoly on all the channels of distribution, this isn't so bizarre.

Who Cares if you have a better product? Build a better mousetrap and Big Bizness makes sure you can't sell it.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 09:53
Gianni Dioro__A (mozel, Deflation Destroys Debt) ID#384350:
Ever heard the one about the US Govt inflating away their debt. So what happens when deflation sets in?

Isn't this 10 for 11 unwinding itself?

It is Impossible to repay 11 for 10 borrowed, the only solution is default ( or possibly counterfeiting the 11th dollar ) .

So all these people think they will profit from deflation by buying debt. If deflation does kick in, what we will see are massive defaults. Debt can never be settled, it's impossible, it's a scam. Sure an individual can pay off His Debt, but all debts of the system can never be settled at once.

So like lambs being led to slaughter, people are seeing sovereign debt as their savior. Maybe the US will stave off spiraling deflation by borrowing new money into existence increasing the Money Supply by $10 Trillion or so ( as well as its Debt ) . What would the effects of that be? Heck, remember when the US printed up $50 Billion to give ( as a loan ) to Mexico in '95? The dollar was making Historic lows. Now imagine $10 Trillion.

Have Gold, Will Travel.

We shall see

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 09:49
Frustrated (kitkat ) ID#298259:
Well, we all knew that had to be a wrong number, look again.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 09:42
SEQUIN (@ NJ) ID#25171:
Copyright © 1998 SEQUIN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Today's meeting of the ECB is limited to its 6 member executive board. No final decision will be taken until the executive board and the 11 national central bank governors meet for the first time next tuesday.
They discussed mostly internal job share-out and might discuss their choice of monetary policy instrument.
It is also unlikely that the break down of reserve assets will be set next week as the regional CB are still in the process of converting their assets Bank of FRANCE and Bof SPAIN are in the process of selling DM against US $ and it is likely that the CBs are assessing their REPO portfolio in GOLD .Still no official confirmation about the likely sell of more GOLD by the dutch.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 09:39
kitkat (June gold @ 301) ID#218385:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 09:37 (Malaysian Prime Minister attacks IMF) ID#434108:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 09:28
SEQUIN (Buffett and SILVER) ID#25171:
It is also likely that Buffet started its SILVER buying spree way earlier than stated in that article.Thus his average is certainly lower than calculated.
Anyway it souds more like an article to discredit Buffett who dared challenging the system ( even though he was carefull to state that it was a pure supply and demand play ) .
If some guys are shorting SILVER to get him to stop himself out , they are in for a difficult awakening.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 09:27
NJ (PEI has a 'must' read article) ID#20748:
on their home page with the title Global Meltdown. Hot water has been turned off in all of Russia to coserve energy. Discussion of gold if pivotal support at 280 is broken.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 09:18 (The Roaring '90's repeats the Roaring '20's ?!) ID#434108:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 09:08
Gusto Oro (Maverick on Silver) ID#377235:
Maverick, I heard recently that Buffett dumped 30% of his silver during the run-up at an average of $7.10 an oz. Is this not true? --AG

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 09:02
NJ (D.A.) ID#20748:
There was news of first meeting of the ECB today, which I posted at 6:50.

You are the only one in this group who can us get news to form an opinion whether the firmness in PMs today related to the ECB meeting, or is it just another bounce.

If you are lurking, would you please post any information that comes your way.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 09:00
Al_FSOJ__A (data) ID#255231:

Can anyone name a web site where I can get historical prices ( daily H, L, C ) of silver futures

Thanks, Al

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 09:00
JOE Smith (some interesting figures on MUNNI MUNNI) ID#24869:
The silver discoveries in australia are nearing production---some details at

You need to cut and paste this one

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 08:59
downunder__A (badger) ID#27341:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 08:58
Junior (2BRO2B? @ S. Hanke Economics) ID#248180:
2BRO2B? you are most welcome. This man really interests me. I like his ideas and recommended solutions.
Sadly, for Mr. Hanke, I think he is a voice crying in the wilderness, shouting sound logic and no listeners. In addition for one to buck against IMF policy is for that one to be bannished to the wilderness.
Cheers and good night from OZ.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 08:52
Silverbaron (ROR @ SP500 can't be allowed to fall) ID#289357:

She be rollin' ovah....PPT may not be able to postpone much longer.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 08:52
Gollum (@Maverick ) ID#43185:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Kinda sounds like an article whose intent is to discredit
silver, doesn't it?

As I recall, Mr. Buffets strategy was based on having watched
the demand for silver exceed the supply of silver for 20 or
30 years. Obtaining what information there is available as to
the available stocks and dividing by the estimated rate of
depletion allows one to determine approximately when supplies
should run out.

Now comes the tricky part. You can't wait untill supplies have
actually run out to take your position because by that time prices
will already have run up. And you can't take your position too soon
because that ties up capital which can better be utilized elsewhere
in an era of booming capital markets. So you wait untill 1 ) you have
little to risk by moving your funds out of an equities market which
will soon be weakening and 2 ) you still have a year or so to go until
the silver squeeze hits.

Now, commodity prices can be manipulated by shorts, longs, rumor, and
any number of factors as long as there are still physical stocks
available or an absolute glut of filled warehouses so one would
expect that at times prices would be artifically high or artifically
low until the target event of actual physical depletion.

Mr. Buffet is content to hold his position a year or two and wait
for stocks to wind down and any talk of paper losses or paper gains
in the meantime matters not a whit.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 08:50
badger (Donald) ID#261118:
Where's there a site with graphs on say, the dollar versus the rupia?, I'd like to know how low it's been. Also if a person wanted to buy the rupia how would you go about it? Is there a fund or index of some sort? Trying to trade currencys on your own, I believe, would be suicidial.


Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 08:38
Gollum (deja 1929?) ID#43185:
Here's an intersting discussion on the possibilites of deflation

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 08:35
2BR02B? (@Junior) ID#266105:

Thanks for the Hanke link.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 08:26
Maverick (Buffett and Silver) ID#340155:
Copyright © 1998 Maverick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Tuesday June 2, 4:07 am Eastern Time

Buffett's silver investment a money loser? - NYT

NEW YORK, June 2 ( Reuters ) - Warren Buffett's investment in silver may now be a money loser following a price drop in the precious metal since he first disclosed purchases of 130 million ounces of the metal, the New York Times reported Wednesday.

According to one calculation by the paper, Buffett may have a paper loss of at least $14.1 million, a 2.1 percent decline in the value of his entire silver investment.

An actual loss on the investment is not known.

On February 3 Buffett disclosed in Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s ( BRKa - news ) 1997 annual report that over a six month period he directed the company to invest roughly $900 million in silver. At that time he had made a better than $97 million profit.

Buffett disclosed that he last bought silver on January 12, 1998.

The Times wrote at the time of the disclosure, silver prices were 53 percent higher than on July 25, the time he started to accumulate the metal.

Silver reached an intraday high of $7.40 an ounce on February 5.

If an investor bought a 5,000 ounce silver contract at the lowest intraday price on February 4 they would have paid $33,550. At Monday's closing price, the contract was worth $25,275, a 24.7 percent decline.

At the end of 1997, Buffett controlled 111.2 ounces of silver valued at 665.87 million based on the December 31 closing price.

After subtracting the profit of $97.4 million, the cost of the investment was $568.47 million, or an average of $5.112 an ounce, the paper wrote. As of Monday's closing price of $5.055 an ounce, the investment could have recorded a loss of 6.35 million.

The value of the 18.5 million ounces of silver purchased January 12 is not known, but the Times wrote that day was the low for the year with a price of $5.475 an ounce.

Assuming he bought it all that day, the loss would stand at $7.77 million on Monday. However, if he bought at the average price between January 2 and January 12, his loss would would be $14.43 million.

According to the Times' calculations, Buffett's paper losses range from $14.1 million to $28.5 million.

The paper said the calculations do not include the cost of storage.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 08:18
Silverbaron (sharefin) ID#289357:
You know, the same thing occurred to me....curious, yes?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 08:06
STUDIO.R (@Heeding my own best advice for the day.........) ID#288369:
Turning off the computer for the remainder of the day....happy tales to you. studio.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 08:06
Tortfeasor (Joke of the morning) ID#36965:
Copyright © 1998 Tortfeasor/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The fragile relatonship of gold and the paper market ( both of which appear to be stinking up the place a bit lately ) remind me of the following story:

A young couple decided to wed. As the big day approached, they grew
apprehensive. Each had a problem they had never before shared with
anyone, not even each other.

The Groom-to-be, overcoming his fear, decided to ask his father for
advice. Father, he said, I am deeply concerned about the success
of my marriage.

His father replied, Don't you love this girl?

Oh yes, very much, he said, but you see, I have very smelly feet,
and I'm afraid that my fiance will be put off by them.

No problem, said dad, all you have to do is wash your feet as often
as possible,and always wear socks, even to bed. Well, to him this
seemed a workable solution.

The bride-to-be, overcoming her fear, decided to take her problem up
with her mom. Mom, she said, When I wake up in the morning my
breath is truly awful.

Honey, her mother consoled, everyone has bad breath in the

No, you don't understand,. My morning breath is so bad, I'm afraid
that my fiance will not want to sleep in the same room with me.

Her mother said simply, Try this. In the morning, get straight out of
bed, and head for the kitchen and make breakfast. While the family is
busy eating, move on to the bathroom and brush your teeth. The key is,
not to say a word until you've brushed your teeth.

I shouldn't say good morning or anything? the daughter asked.

Not a word, her mother affirmed.

Well, it's certainly worth a try, she thought.

The loving couple were finally married. Not forgetting the advice each
had received, he with his perpetual socks and she with her morning
silence, they managed quite well. That is, until about six months
later. Shortly before dawn one morning, the husband wakes with a start
to find that one of his socks had come off. Fearful of the
consequences, he frantically searches the bed. This, of course, wakes
his bride and without thinking, she asks, What on earth are you

Oh, my, he replies, you've swallowed my sock!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:59
sharefin (Silverbaron) ID#284255:
Sounds like that was written by M.K.

Post operative Another

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:58
STUDIO.R (@The Inscrutable Index:) ID#288369:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:55
STUDIO.R (@ROR...ummmm, got it.) ID#288369:
The greenback gets greener and gold gets yellower.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:52
allowed to go down is that it would call into question US strength and outlook. Then bye bye Dollar Hello Capital flight. Again this is why we hear the propaganda about this wonderful economy///over and over and over///get it..

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:50
JTF (Vandenberg AF Base?) ID#57232:
EB: Interesting comment. Perhaps the Yugoslavian situation. With regard to Cotton - in the MidWest near me there are wet areas where the Cotton crop is at risk. Unseasonably hot, too. I think El Nino might do a number on foodstuffs by the end of the summer. You might want to be on the alert for an about face.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:48
Notice how the Japanese are getting on the its ok for the dollar to rise bandwagon. It appears the US is the source of world bailout either through currency or IMF. All the more reason to repeat over and over again how wonderful our economy is. RIGHT BILL? The PPT was inthere yesterday as it was last Wed. They are just not going to let the dow fall when there is a crisis atomosphere ditto for kjeeping gold on the defensive in times like this. BUT AGAIN, really its THE DOLLAR STUPID!!!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:46
Silverbaron (COMEX gold envelope chart) ID#289357:

This chart is a few days old now, but it looks to me that it is indicating a short-term bottom around $288. ( but I don't much like the overall envelope turning down )

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:44
Junior (Currency Boards from AFR ) ID#248180:

And it's the rupiah, stupid

By Steve Hanke

By the first week of February, Indonesia's President Soeharto knew that he would be finished if he failed to stabilise the rupiah at a reasonable level. Now President Habibie faces the very same dilemma.

As Soeharto saw it, the IMF, by its own admission, had botched the closing of 16 banks in November. This aggravated Indonesia's economic troubles by setting off a financial panic and capital flight. In an attempt to stabilise the rupiah, Indonesia signed a second IMF agreement on January 15. That agreement failed to address the rupiah's problems.

Consequently, the markets promptly jumped all over the rupiah and put it into a free-fall. Loaded with external debt, Indonesia's private sector was bankrupt. Workers were losing their jobs. And if that wasn't bad enough, prices were rising as a result of the rupiah's devaluation and the Bank of Indonesia's ( BI ) November-January explosion of credit.

What antidote could counteract this deadly cocktail? As Soeharto's special counsellor, I proposed a comprehensive rupiah stabilisation program. Its linchpin was a currency board system ( CBS ) , an idea endorsed by Nobelist Milton Friedman and Margaret Thatcher's economic guru, Sir Alan Walters, among others.

My program also included proposals for external debt restructuring, bank restructuring and recapitalisation, privatisation, a bankruptcy code overhaul and the break-up of crony capitalism.

The CBS proposal, however, created a firestorm of controversy. Why? After all, the CBS would have required the rupiah and US dollar to freely trade at a reasonable fixed rate and required the rupiah liabilities of the BI to be fully covered by dollar reserves.

This would have tied the hands of the BI and Soeharto, something Soeharto was willing to live with because it would have permanently shut the BI's credit spigot, put an end to Indonesia's currency crisis and kept Soeharto in the saddle.

A variety of objections to the CBS proposal were raised. Most were so well worn that an entire chapter of my 1994 book, Currency Boards for Developing Countries, was devoted to refuting them. But Indonesian-specific objections were also raised. One concerned setting the exchange-rate at an overvalued level so that Soeharto and his family and friends could get their money out of the country at a favourable rate.

The most disturbing aspect of this objection was the assertion that I had recommended to artificially fix the rupiah-dollar rate at 5,500. Such an artificial rate-setting recommendation would have, among other things, contradicted all of my previous technical work on the CBS. Never mind.

This assertion got legs when The Wall Street Journal  of February 10 quoted from a working paper that I had allegedly written for the Indonesian Government. But I had never written any such report or made any exchange-rate recommendations. One of the article's authors subsequently acknowledged this error in correspondence of February 12 and the Journal  finally fessed up in a belated and muddled correction on February 19.

It was then that I realised that I would not only have to argue the case for a CBS in the intellectual arena, which was my job, but that I would also have to deal with certain elements of the press that were intent on condemning the CBS idea by concocting stories and letting their imaginations run amok. I set the record straight on the exchange-rate objection at every opportunity, most notably in a question-and-answer interview that appeared in the International Herald Tribune  on March 20. But this was to be a Sisyphian task.

Indeed, the June 1 issue of Business Week  was still peddling the same old phony exchange-rate story. Without interviewing me or bothering to read my IHT  interview, BW  claimed that I had recommended a rate of 5,000, the rate for budget planning which was contained in the January 15 IMF agreement.

Many critics argued that interest rates would increase sharply if a CBS was installed. Indeed, no less than Michael Camdessus, managing director of the IMF, made this claim in a letter he addressed to President Soeharto on February 11. But history doesn't support this argument. The introduction of every CBS since Hong Kong's in 1983 has resulted in a reduction in interest rates.

The markets indicated that this would also happen in Indonesia. Each time the markets anticipated the introduction of a CBS, swap rates in the rupiah forward markets would fall, indicating that the markets thought a CBS was viable and viable at lower, not higher, interest rates.

In the meantime, the clock was ticking and by mid-March, the bean counters in Jakarta were getting nervous. They informed me that the BI's useable foreign reserves were running low. And without adequate reserves, they claimed a CBS wouldn't be feasible.

I responded to that practical objection in a paper to the Credit Suisse First Boston Investment Conference in Hong Kong ( March 27 ) . Under my new proposal, Indonesia would adopt a parallel currency system, something that has worked well in other countries. The existing stock of rupiahs would remain on the books of the BI and in the pockets of Indonesians. But no more old rupiah ( OIR ) base money would be created by the BI. The OIR printing presses would literally shut down. Available reserves would be used to establish a CBS that would issue a new rupiah ( NIR ) . The NIR would be linked to the US dollar via an absolutely fixed exchange rate and the OIR would float against the NIR.

My last proposal was too late. Soeharto had finally caved in and waved off the CBS. On April 10, a third IMF agreement was signed. It included all the elements in my proposal of February 26, except the CBS linchpin.

And as I wrote in the Financial Times  ( April 22 ) : This is why the third IMF agreement has little chance of success. Little did I know that in only a few short weeks I would say in a Reuters television interview from Geneva that the whole thing is going to blow up . . .

Although some of the names have changed, Indonesia's problem remains the same: it's the rupiah, stupid. As President Habibie charts the course for Indonesia, he would do well to ponder on the experiences of his predecessor.

The lesson to be learnt is clear: without a CBS and a stable rupiah, everything is nothing.

Steve H. Hanke is a professor of Applied Economics at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland. He was a special counsellor to former president Soeharto in the early months of this year.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:42
STUDIO.R (@cherOkee.........) ID#288369:
Drought report: 113 degrees yesterday in Altus, Ok. Supposed to climb to 118-120 degrees today...never-heard-of-before temps this early in the year.

The techno-ginandtonic plates are shifting 'neath the caves of Wall Street....grillions of vampire bats to wildly fly toward the sun...once a dreaded direction. Ever see the bats exit the caves of So. Tejas? cool stuff.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:34
Silverbaron (Bully Beef) ID#289357:

Yes - I believe that it has been there quite a while - it was one of the first in a chain at

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:30
JTF (Thoughts about Gold) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: Just look at the spot commodity price index before you buy gold/gols stocks. The Cry0 looks like it is falling off a cliff! I can't imagine this index coming around for at least a month. Given the long term trend -- falling long term since Mar 96 -- 6 months is more like it. We may be repeating the 1993 gold bull cycle in the cry0/gold ratio, but that also looks like 6 months to go. I doubt gold bullion will drop below $280/oz, but don't bet the farm on that. The old 'keep the powder dry' bit is the best advice, I think.

A major world crisis of some kind would bring gold and oil around in a hurry.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:23
Bully Beef (I agree with Mathir.) ID#259261:
How many of you want the fate of nations decided by stressed out wall street traders? one of their typical decisions... Hmmm ,should 20 million starve in Indo today or will I buy some of their currency to give them a boost?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:21
JTF (Euro dollar down, spoos up on Globex this AM) ID#57232:
All: Any idea what this means? Seems contradictory to me. Markets in SEAsia are mixed this AM.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:21
OLD GOLD () ID#242325:
With gold and gold shares again in free-fall, I expect a bottom quite soon. However prices could still drop considerably further these next few days before we turn. Selling climax in gold shares this week a good bet.

But while a sharp bounce higher from very oversold levels is not far off, a suatained bull is out of the question until confidence in the US dollar is shaken in a fundamental way. ROR has the right take on this.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:17
Bully Beef (Silverbaron. That was a neat post. Can you confirm(it doesn't matter) that) ID#259261:
it was written before all this has come to pass. It's not the news but its reality. I'll make a prediction. You can't base currency on trust and confidence. It won't put bread on the table. ( QUALIFIER...For long. )

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:15
JTF (India and Russia) ID#57232:
Donald: Good morning! Bet you have been up Mt Washington more than once! Been to the Lake of the Clouds hut?

If India is next, silver demand will drop. Didn't D.A. tell us one day that reduced Indian demand will not significantly affect silver prices? Perhaps we just need to wait for the markets to digest the Silver bolus from Russia. Looks like it was a big one.

Nice positive news from D.A. about Japan real estate. Problem is -- I think now their problems are more related to foreign investment debt -- South Korea, China, etc. But -- perhaps a bottom is in sight.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:08
Donald (Mahathir says the gold standard can not be brought back.) ID#26793:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:05
Donald (Wall Street says Europe should bail out Russia.) ID#26793:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:00
Silverbaron (Weird stuff discovered while looking up something else) ID#289357:
Copyright © 1998 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

August 10, 1997. 2:30 IST Madras, INDIA

Dear brothers & sisters,

This following is a copy of the letter sent to Pranic Healers in Tamilnadu, by Cliff and Sushma Saldanha, recently. It has been presented in this conference, in the interest of all ( with permission ) . -Prem Note: Any queries may be directed to the address given below, or to me. ------------------------------------------------------------------------


Anugrah No.1, I Link Street Karpagam Garden, Adyar, Madras 600 020. INDIA Tel/Fax: 91-44-491 8460, 491 2004 / Fax: 91-44-491 0958

Dear Fellow Pranic Healer,


The following predictions were compiled by MASTER CHOA KOK SUI from several Reliable Sources over a period of time. According to MASTER CHOA, ... all the things stated here will happen, not because I wish them to happen, but because they're destined to happen. ( Master Choa Kok Sui, November 29, 1996 ) . Like all prophecies or predictions, there is a small, minute degree of uncertainty. This is caused by Free Will and possible Divine Intervention. All persons are encouraged to exercise their own judgement, their wise discretion and discernment, in responding to the predictions enumerated below. The predictions: 1. There will be severe volcanic activity - globally, from the year 1997 to 2000, and beyond. 2. There will be major weather changes, adversely affecting agricultural production - globally from the year 1997 to 2000, and beyond. 3. There will be a series of drastic US dollar devaluations from the year 1998 to 2000, and beyond. It is therefore recommended to buy gold and silver coins. ( The start of the devaluation of the US dollar could be accelerated to the 4th Quarter of '97. 4. There will be a series of global currency devaluations caused by the US dollar devaluations, followed by global economic recession from the year 1998 to 2000, and beyond. 5. A major earthquake ( the Big One ) will hit and devastate CALIFORNIA: by the 3rd or 4th quarter of 1998. 6. Big, colossal tidal waves will hit CALIFORNIA and OTHER COUNTRIES : possibly by the 2nd quarter of the year 2000. 7. The above global changes will be accompanied by stronger resurgence in spirituality among humanity. It will bring out the best and the worst in people. The above predictions should be viewed from a positive standpoint. Inner changes are usually accompanied by external changes. The outcome of these predictions can be substantially reduced by encouraging people, at a specific time ( preferably 7.00 am., local time ) to simultaneously do the MEDITATION ON TWIN HEARTS and/or to say the GREAT INVOCATION or to pray for DIVINE INTERVENTION and the healing of the earth, on a daily or weekly basis. Anyone responding to the above predictions do so with the full awareness, that they themselves bear the full burden and responsibility for their actions, whether these predictions come true or not. The reader is encouraged to share these predictions with other PRANIC HEALERS, their LOVED ONES, RELATIVES, FRIENDS and ASSOCIATES. More predictions will probably be released by January 1, 2001. MASTER CHOA, shared these Predictions with us at the International Pranic Healing Conference - Manila in Nov'96 and had given us specific instructions as to what we should do and now again at the Arhatic Retreat - Bangalore in Jan'.97, he once again discussed several other aspects of, THESE TIMES TO COME. In his generosity, Master Choa has asked us to share this information with everyone now and also to enlighten you all about other aspects, that need to be taken care of whilst planning the future. We have in our possession too, GEOGRAPHICAL MAPS of how the LAND MASS would be with the expected changes, how much of India would be submerged by the rising waters, also the land mass map of the United States, where many of our near and dear ones and many other EUROPEAN and EASTERN COUNTRIES. In the mean time, please feel free to telephone us about any clarifications you need to have and we may if you need, fix up to meet different groups of people to interact on this subject, in time to come. -SB-

CLIFF & SUSHMA SALDANHA Trustees, Trainers & Healers of the Pranic Healing Foundation of Tamilnadu, dedicated to the vision of MASTER CHOA KOK SUI and the spread of well being to all humanity. ------------------------------------------------------------------------




Buy gold and silver!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 07:00
Donald (Indonesia slipping deeper into poverty) ID#26793:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 06:58
MtHighNC ((Chas)) ID#347239:
Thanks for your post yesterday...I too know where those places are..I kept your number...will call next time I am that way...Well anyhow..I am back to the charts to see what magic they can show me today!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 06:57
Donald (Russia needs funding badly but the IMF is running on empty.) ID#26793:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 06:56
JTF (Sunrise on Mt. Washington) ID#57232:
Panda: Thanks -- I needed that. The White Mountains -- especially Mt Washington -- are one of my favorite places. My Uncle used to ski down Tuckerman's ravine, and I spend many hours on the Jewel trail.

It is hard being a gold bug sometimes -- because when you finally get what you've been waiting for -- you may not want what comes with it. And keeping your powder dry requires the patience of Job.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 06:51
Carl (And now the Swiss say 500 tons will do it.) ID#341189:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 06:50
NJ (ECB) ID#20748:
First meeting today.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 06:32
panda (Sunrise from the White mountains of New Hampshire.) ID#30116:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 06:24
Ersel (Who was it that said,) ID#230376:

Remember, it's always darkest .....................just before it gets pitch black. Good day from the chilly Midwest. ( But with a beautiful, GOLDEN sunrise ! )

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 06:14
Fred(@Vienna)__A (How to become fat and rich) ID#185448:
A note, just to keep the torch lit

Usually, Bart sold his Mounties at 326, when POG was below 310. So if you buy today a truckload full ( a bargain - only 30 bucks for shipping and forwarding!! - So you can neglect this one ) and sell them to the RCM at the fixed price of 310 USD. Take those 310/OZ to buy other 1 OZ´s at current price - ( lets say 288, as the frames actualy still have their monday morning blues ) . Then count yar money: As before you own 1 OZ plus additional 6 USD. Ha!

Shoot that bear, Baudelaire!

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 05:21
John Disney__A (Foreign Policy) ID#24135:
For Salty
ALWAYS be enemy of USA. Then they
give you lots of goodies sooner or
later. NEVER BE ALLY .. Once you
are ALLY you are screwed. but I
thought you KNEW this .. NZ should
set off a non nuclear Non explosive
device somewhere in Pacific .. and
get lots of attention and goodies.
I happen to have a few of these
devices and can supply at low cost.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 05:17
Fred(@Vienna)__A () ID#185448:
Copyright © 1998 Fred(@Vienna)__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

1. Board of ECB meets today ( ! ) for the very first time, but no relevant decisions expected.

2. Turkey has to use approx. 93 % of its collected taxes to meet obligations caused by its debt.

3. Proposal passed from EU-commission to EU-Council to collect antidumping-fees for the next five years on photocopiers and fax-devices produced in the following countries: Malaysia: 89,9%, China: 51,6%, Taiwan 36,6% and Thailand 22,6%.

Sources: 1 and 2: Frankfurter Allgemeine 30.5.98; # 3: confidental.


Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 05:01
mozel (@aurator The Problem is bigger the closer you get to it.) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It all started on Jan. 13, 1994, the Orthodox New Year's Eve, when a group of American and Norwegian soldiers serving within the U.N. mission in Macedonia got stuck in the mud. Literally. As they struggled to free their vehicle, they were captured by a Serbian border patrol which claimed that U.N. troops had crossed the border and were on Serbian soil. The American and the Norwegian soldiers were held by the Serbs for 11 hours, questioned and eventually released in the early morning hours of Jan. 14, 1994.

Such incidents were quite common on the poorly-marked Macedonia-Serbia
border. After all, prior to the NWO busting up the former Yugoslavia in 1991-1992, both Macedonia and Serbia were a part of the same country. Thus there was no need to have interstate borders marked any more clearly than there is between Arizona and California, for example, or between Indiana and Ohio. According to a statement by the Finnish General, Juha Engstrom, published by the U.N. Peace Forces News in October 1995, there were 30 such border incidents in 1994.

So what's the big deal? Well, Haverinen, the AFN newsman, got the wind of the Jan. 13 border incident. And he questioned the Able Sentry's public affairs officer, Major David Richards, about what happened on Jan. 13, 1994. Richards responded with the we're not going to confirm or deny it-comment, refusing to discuss the matter further, according to Haverinen's affidavit.

Meanwhile, back in Macedonia, what happened next was nothing short of
bizarre. As Haverinen walked from the Able Sentry base to the nearby Skopje airport, he was arrested by the U.S. Army MPs. Major Richards doesn't want you flying anywhere, Sgt. Christian Moldey, an MP, reportedly told Haverinen at the time. The newsman protested claiming he was an American civilian whose constitutional rights were being violated. To no avail.

Once in detention at the Able Sentry base, Haverinen even sought the help of a chaplain. I was frightened and shaken, he told us during the April interview.

After a six-hour detention, Haverinen was released on orders from Lt. Col. Carter Ham, the man who initially tried to impose the gag rule about the Jan. 13, 1994 border incident, according to Haverinen. Yet only five months later, Col. Ham was quoted in a May 12, 1994 European edition of the Stars and Stripes, commenting about the very same Macedonia-Serbia border incident, Haverinen said in his sworn affidavit.

Ever since, Haverinen has been trying to get his story out - with no takers among the establishment media. I have been working this issue for four years, he wrote to us in mid-April. I will continue to work this story for 44 more years. I don't get tired of an issue when I have been subjected to criminal behavior.

A resident of Maine at the time, he had also contacted his then Senator,
William Cohen, asking for help. No dice. Ironically, Cohen is now the U.S. Secretary of Defense. The reason for Cohen's lack of interest? In a typical Clinton administration style, the Pentagon has gone from defense to offense. They accused Haverinen of violating Col. Ham's no-drinking order. Never mind that he was an American civilian at the time, and not subject to any military rules - in Macedonia or elsewhere.
In a July 7, 1997 letter to Cohen, Lt. Col. Howard Brosseau, the U.S. Army congressional coordinator at the time, wrote to the then Senator Cohen that, the ( Able Sentry ) command was concerned about Mr. Haverinen's consumption of alcohol. And that's why he was arrested? ( Haverinen admitted to us to having had three beers the night before his arrest, while visiting the Finnish unit of the U.N. Macedonia peacekeeping force ) .

Since the time he was labeled as a whistleblower, Haverinen says he was
treated as a pariah. His performance ratings were lowered; he was
harrassed in other ways, too. And finally, he quit his AFN post in November 1997, to take a position at a civilian public network station in the U.S. So where's the story, besides the two bizarre detentions; one over three cans of beer? Well, the real story is the beer drinking charge may have been made to gag a reporter and cover-up a more serious matter - a possibly unlawful presidential deployment of the U.S. troops in Macedonia.

According to a Dec. 6, 1995 Motion to Dismiss filed by Ron Ray, a
Kentucky-based attorney, in the United States of America -vs- Michael G. New case ( SPC, USA, 450-73-3242 - a well publicized case of a U.S. soldier, about to be deployed in Macedonia, who refused to wear the United Nations colors above that of the U.S. - see TiM GW Bulletin 98/4-1, Apr. 2, 1998 ) . In his motion, Ray argued that the deployment of the U.S. troops in Macedonia was in violation of:
( a ) 22 U.S.C. Code Sec. 287d, or in the alternative, 22 U.S.C. Sec. 287d-1; ( b ) Article I, Section 8, Clauses 12, 13, 14, and 18 of the United States Constitution; ( c ) Article II, Section 2, Par. 1 of the United States Constitution; and ( d ) Article II, Section 2, Par. 2 of the United States Constitution.
Ray's Motion to Dismiss also included a reference to a Mar. 22, 1995 report by the then U.N. Secretary-General, Boutros-Boutros Ghali, which stated that the UNPROFOR was structured initially into three operational commands: UNPROFOR ( Croatia ) ... UNPROFOR ( Bosnia and Herzegovina ) ... and UNPROFOR ( Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia ) .

Now, let's try to reduce all these acronyms and all this legalese to common sense. What this Kentucky attorney was basically saying was that, in order for the President of the United States to send our troops to hazardous duty, such as that under Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter, he had to have obtained Congressional approval. Which neither Bush nor Clinton ever did with respect to the Macedonia deployment ( and even in Bosnia, Clinton got it only AFTER he had already committed the U.S. troops to it per the Dayton agreement of November 1995 ) .

Suddenly, the Serbian border incident of Jan. 13, 1994; Haverinen's
allegedly unlawful arrest a few days later; Michael New's case of refusing to serve under the U.N. colors; and the deployment of the American troops in Macedonia - all begin to acquire a common thread: possible violations of the United States Constitution by our last two Presidents, both of whom had sworn to uphold the U.S. Constitution.

And that is the reason why we think that Haverinen's story goes beyond the three possibly illegally consumed cans of beer. And why it is bigger than the six hours of an unlawful detention which this American citizen had suffered in January 1994 at the hands of the American troops in Macedonia.

For, as Juvenal ( a.d. 60-130 ) , a Roman, asked some 21 centuries ago: But who is going to guard the guards themselves? ( i.e., if the American Presidents, protected by their personal Army and Navy, get away with violating the U.S. Constitution which they have been elected to
guard ) .

from Truth in Media

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 04:24
aurator (call that biting your tongue? wouldn't like to see it when you let it all hang out......) ID#257148:


Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 04:11
aurator (The Gift - to see ourselves as others see us.......) ID#257148:
your Date: Mon Jun 01 1998 21:10 Prometheus ( @Watching the world change shape )

I didn't take nearly a big enough bite out of merkan gobmint last week.

What is it with merkan gobmint? Your allies, believers in Democracy and freedoms, like Stralia & NZ are ignored while the enemies of freedom are accorded special treatment? I shall hold my tongue tonight. But, I recall merkan gobmint's deafening silence when France was testing her foul nuclear weapons in the Pacific, and when the French State sponsored terrorist act of the bombing of the Rainbow Warrior in Auckland Harbour, killing one person,

Merka's response? Increase trade tarrifs for NZ Beef and Dairy products. Protect your farmers, Restrict Intelligence to NZ, give your enemies ehanced military capabilities and screw your friends.... how merkan! Now, when, you can afford it you beat your breasts over India & Pakistan? how merkan!

Land of the Free? HA HA HA

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 03:35
kuston (D.A. - nailed it again) ID#273227:
you sure did hit it on the head - it has been 'the Kitco funeral' around here lately.

Has anyone seen Bullworth? I liked it, the truth just cannot be told.

For the golfers - I've played three rounds with my Reid Lockhart blades. If you are looking for a new set, these are the real deal. They don't have anyone promoting them so if you're into status look elsewhere. The clubs are made by the orginal Ben Hogan people, they set up shop in San Antonio last year.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 03:31
A.Goose (As comparison let us look at Delivery notices as of May 28th...) ID#256254:
Copyright © 1998 A.Goose/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

May 28-FWN
COMEX Delivery Notices for Today

Goldman Sachs & Co. 1 Aig Clearing Corporation 1
Fimat Futures Usa, Inc. 66 Prudential Securities Inc. 46
Cargill Investor Services 155 Cargill Investor Services 39
Carr Futures Inc. 20 Refco, Inc. 25
E.D.&F. Man International 99 Gerald Metals, Inc. 189
Refco, Inc. 9 Credit Lyonnais Rouse 148
Klein & Co. Futures, Inc. 4 Klein & Co. Futures, Inc. 6
Merrill Lynch Futures, Inc. 4 Lind-Waldock & Company 2
Triland Usa Inc. 132 Triland Usa Inc. 4
TOTAL 490 MG London Inc. 30
-- TOTAL 490

Linnco Futures Group Llg 1 Goldman Sachs & Co. 2
Refco, Inc. 7 Merrill Lynch Futures, Inc. 1
Lind-Waldock & Company 2 The Bank of Nova Scotia 7


-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --
SO FAR FOR MAY 9,093 5,847 8



And as of June 1


-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --
ISSUED TODAY 1,052 4 2,209
SO FAR FOR JUNE 1,941 4 7,449


What is this telling us


Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 03:28
mozel (@sharefin I trust your judgement. Kind of you to make the effort.) ID#153102:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 03:22
sharefin (John) ID#284255:

Dozens of fishy recipes at this site.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 03:15
sharefin (Mozel?) ID#284255:
I have compiled a list of your posts for the month of May.
Much the same as 'Another's Thoughts'

Do you want to look at this list before I post it here?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 03:10
John Disney__A (Morning Blues) ID#24135:
for Salty
I blew it ..

for Jeil
You're good. You're really good ..

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 03:08
aurator (crusty) ID#257148:
it's all in the fish sauce

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 03:04
sharefin (AZAU - Asian charts) ID#284255:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 02:51
John Disney__A (morning ragas) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Im not a shareholder .. When is the EX shareholders
meeting. Ill be a shareholder at $3.25.

For Spock
re your 23:31 I said it would go down too .. but Id
never say what you said .. I'm rude but not smug.

To all
Deeps got whacked .. sadly I STILL have some .. Ill
fix that today. Also still have some rangy. You know
they have their marsfontein interest valued at ZERO.

For Salty
Beef marinated overnight .. was shy fish sauce .. which
requires 20 minute drive .. created ersazt with anchovy

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 02:51
mozel (@Jack) ID#153102:
The Bank already holds equitable interest in the land of the State of New Jersey. If the feudal ground-rent ( as property tax ) is not paid, the State forecloses, but the true, unidentified party of interest is The Bank. The same was true of the widow's ejectment. When The Bank forecloses on this loan, it will own the shares in the corporations and have interest in not only the land and buildings, but also in the other assets of the corporations, the last unencumbered asset in the country.

We are again utterly subject to a King.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 02:40
JIN (ARDEN,check mail!) ID#206358:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 02:37
Jack ( Mozel: When the Market fails the bankers will own New Jersey outright without a shot fired) ID#252127:
( Correction above )
Maybe that loan is on behalf of her freinds, the
Bilderbergs with the intention of establishing a strong
totally owned foothold in NJ.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 02:33
Hedgehog (That makes a Three River Bottom) ID#39857:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 02:31
Jack (Hell when the Mozel: Market fails the bankers will own New Jersey outright without a shot fired) ID#252127:

Maybe that loan is on behalf of her freinds, the Bilderbergs with the intention of establishing a strong totally owned foothold in NJ.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 02:18
mozel (@Other Cash Flows) ID#153102:
In late June 1997, the State of New Jersey finalized an arrangement to
borrow 2.8 billion dollars at an interest cost of 7.6% and an up-front
fee of fifty million dollars in order to invest the money in U.S.

Here is margin on a scale never dreamt of in 1929. It appears that State Ownership with funds provided by The Bank may be the heart and soul of The New Paradigm. This would be the logical final development of Corporate Socialism.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 02:12
Jack (Something to ponder about) ID#252127:
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

So Russia's Uneximbank who is authorised to sell for export Russian gold production announces a gold sale and the whole gold market cracks up. This gold is not from the Russian Governments reserves -so relax.

I remember reading words by the famous old gold expert Dr. Franz Pick who indicated that during the 1970-1980 the USSR had more gold than the USA, some 11,000 tonnes ( if my memory serves me correct ) .

Now where did all this gold indicated by a reknowned gold expert go, if anywhere at all.

Or is it part of the outstanding gold loans issued by central banks or the metal which hangs about some ladies neck? If the Pick estimate was correct it could be in gold loans that are due back to Russia, because the Russian CB has only about 500 tonne today.

One can say the gold was spent on war efforts, but what war materials did Russia a resource rich country have to import to supply the defence industries of the then Communist controlled society.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 02:07
sharefin (AMG - M/F cash flows) ID#284255:
Click on 'Current Weekly News Highlights'

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 02:03
downunder__A (Hedgehog) ID#27341:
Oh yeh, thanks, that one had BANG writen al over it.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 02:03
Schippi (World Indices @ AZAU) ID#93199:
Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:12
AZAU ( Question ) ID#247273:
Is there an Asian index? Comprised of weighted components of various indices?
I find the below URL to give graphically the info you are looking for.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 02:01
A.Goose (Is there any interest in gold?... Just look at the delivery...) ID#256254:
Copyright © 1998 A.Goose/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
notices for gold so far in June ( : ) )

Prudential Securities Inc. 5 Aig Clearing Corporation 19
Carr Futures Inc. 75 Prudential Securities Inc. 123
E.D.&F. Man International 94 Deutsche Morgan Grenfell 1
Credit Lyonnais Rouse 770 Fimat Futures Usa, Inc. 248
Triland Usa Inc. 97 Cargill Investor Services 54
First Options of Chicago 1 E.D.&F. Man International 300
Smith Barney Inc. 10 Lind-Waldock & Company 9
TOTAL 1,052 Merrill Lynch Futures, Inc. 58
-- MG London Inc. 240
-- TOTAL 1,052

Merrill Lynch Futures, Inc. 4 The Bank of Nova Scotia 1
TOTAL 4 Saul Stone and Company 3
-- TOTAL 4

Goldman Sachs & Co. 974 Prudential Securities Inc 268
Prudential Securities Inc. 234 Deutsche Morgan Grenfell 437
Fimat Futures Usa, Inc. 71 Bear Stearns Securities 7
Cargill Investor Services 160 Fimat Futures Usa, Inc. 121
Carr Futures Inc. 7 Cargill Investor Services 87
Age Commodity Clearing Corp 32 Age Commodity Clearing Corp 5
Geldermann Inc. 336 First Chicago Stone, Inc. 23
Klein & Co. Futures, Inc. 25 Geldermann Inc. 50
Lind-Waldock & Company 66 Sterling Commodities Corp. 21
The Bank of Nova Scotia 53 Credit Lyonnais Rouse 6
Saul Stone and Company 30 Klein & Co. Futures, Inc. 3
Rosenthal - Collins Group 4 Merrill Lynch Futures Inc. 55
Smw Trading Company, Inc. 4 The Bank of NOva Scotia 83
Spear, Leeds & Kellogg 133 Morgan Stanley & Co., Inc 670
Pioneer Futures, Inc. 80 J.P. Morgan Futures Inc. 105
TOTAL 2,209 Saul Stone and Company 26
-- Painewebber Incorporated 3
-- Republic N.Y. Securities 166
-- Spear, Leeds & Kellogg 55
-- Smith Barney Inc. 18
-- TOTAL 2,209

-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --
ISSUED TODAY 1,052 4 2,209
SO FAR FOR JUNE 1,941 4 7,449

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 01:56
mozel (@Just a Bit More on Widows) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
At common law, nobody could have budged the widow in Atlantic City from her dower. But, she was not in a common law jurisdiction. She was in her legal status just another artificial person. Moreover, her land title in all probability had the defect of not being allodial because of the work of the attorney when the property was acquired. The press called this eminent domain, but I daresay that the State was moving on its equitable interest in the property. If you think of the incident as a hostile corporate takover, you will be in the right category of jurisprudence.

Someone posted about the inherent inflation of negative interest currencies and how they discouraged hoarding. Well, this is another way of saying they spawn corporate law for everyone, artificial person law that evicts widows who want to hold on to the family home, that evicts grandfathers who want to hold on to the family farm. They institutionalize usury that compels mothers to leave infants in the care of strangers to go to work to pay the family tax burden. And these devil's currencies reward idle trading and unproductive speculation and penalize thrift, production, and saving. And in the end degrade us to rationalizing the ejectment of widows.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 01:53
A.Goose () ID#256254:
Copyright © 1998 A.Goose/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Gold 28,000
Silver 11,000
H.G. Copper 10,000

warehouse stocks:
-- GOLD ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net. Adjust- Total
Total Withdrawn Chg. ment Today

927,753 0 0 0 0 927,753
149,568 0 0 0 0 149,568
1,077,321 0 0 0 0 1,077,321

-- ( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Net. Adjust- Total
Chg. ment Today

-1,172,679 0 36,175,089
14,520 0 53,453,286
-704,938 0 89,628,375

Warehouse stocks:

Copper - high-grade cathodes ( in short tons )
point previous received withdrawn net chg total

Total 84,762 0 1,764 -1,764 82,998

London Metal Exchange authorities reported this morning
that warehouse stocks of copper fell 2,225 metric tons,
leaving the total at 261,350. This comes after a decline of
1,520 short tons was reported in COMEX stocks on Friday,
following the close of pit trade, leaving the total there at
84,762 short tons.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 01:52
downunder__A (Another one covers thier BUTT) ID#27341:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 01:48
tsclaw (Another viewpoint. A little long but good reading for those about to give up!) ID#327123:
Copyright © 1998 tsclaw/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

by Steven Jon Kaplan Back Issue List

Updated @ 6:00 p.m. EDT, Monday, June 1, 1998.

Talk with Steve Kaplan

The divergence between the performance of the major market indices and the broader market has not been this pronounced since just before the bear market of 1973-1974, the worst in postwar U.S. history.

A PARABLE OF A GLOBAL VILLAGE-Consider a town in which most of the residents live in straw houses, and a small number of citizens live in brick houses. For several years, straw houses have become more and more desirable by the populace, whereas brick houses are increasingly rejected. Eventually some of the brick houses have become altogether abandoned, while the straw houses are seeing increasing habitation. In recent months, a disease has begun to erode the straw in an increasing number of the straw houses, almost destroying many of them, such as the Korean straw house. Recently the Russian, South American, eastern European, and most Asian straw houses have become virtually uninhabitable. In response, the residents do not seek out the brick houses-in fact, some of the brick house residents are actually moving out to join their jam-packed neighbors, so that the few remaining straw houses, particularly the one with the U.S. flag, have become incredibly overcrowded. Now even the remaining straw houses are showing significant signs of deterioration, but this has not stopped the wild influx of people, with the exception only of the town's wealthy builders, who seem to have recently departed. Consider what will happen when the final straw houses are no longer livable.

LIKE STOCKS, LIKE HEROIN-A decade ago, a monthly inflow of one billion dollars was enough to cause a substantial rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Currently, a monthly inflow of $25 billion dollars is barely enough to keep the market from declining. The market has developed a tolerance for new cash, much as a drug addict needs more and more of a drug to obtain the same effect. Expect similar withdrawal symptoms, which by the way are not pleasant.

COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities ended modestly lower on Monday, while precious metals closed moderately lower across the board. Gold slumped $4.50, silver dropped 3.0 cents, platinum sank $4.90, and palladium plunged $12.55. Continued strength in bonds is causing money to leave precious metals for fixed income securities, though long-term Treasury rates are approaching important long-term resistance points, and it is unlikely that the bond rally will continue much further. The XAU, an index of larger-capitalization gold mining shares concentrated in North America, hit its lowest level since February 26.

A spot price of gold below $300 is likely to continue to draw the strongest commercial accumulation, as gold insiders know that powerful physical demand has been generated at these levels for several months, and the supply-demand deficit is most acute when the price is most heavily discounted. In addition, gold producers consistently close out their hedge positions at current price levels, since they know that any remaining downside is certain to be limited both in intensity and duration.

On the New York Stock Exchange there were 55 new highs and 96 new lows, with 1195 stocks advancing and 1831 stocks declining. ( This is horrible breadth, but you and I both know that the financial news summary will say, The market rose on Monday . . . . ) The index put-call ratio was a significantly pessimistic 1.71, while the equity put-call ratio was a strongly pessimistic 0.56.

The volatility index or VIX, a measure of implied volatilities for U.S. stock index options which demonstrates complacency vs. fear in the market, closed up 0.63 at 23.52. On Thursday, March 19, 1998, the index hit an intraday bottom of 17.92, its lowest level since November 26, 1996. The recent, almost unbroken stretch of the VIX below 25-since January 16--indicates a high level of investor complacency about the potential for a drop in the stock market.

Monday's COMEX gold estimated volume was a moderately light 28,000 lots. Total COMEX gold open interest on Friday rose 2,179 to 160,445, continuing a recent trend of steady commercial accumulation coupled with new speculator short selling. Silver open interest climbed 6,032 to 91,571 contracts. The implied gold lease rate is about 1.1% for one month ( annualized ) and 2.0% for one year. COMEX gold warehouse stocks were unchanged at 1,077,321 ounces, while COMEX silver warehouse stocks declined by 704,938 to 89,628,375 ounces, modestly above their recent multi-year low. The Johannesburg gold index closed Monday morning at 899.6, down 34.4 rand, with the U.S. dollar quoted at 5.2145 rand. On Monday, June 1, 1998, the dollar touched a new intraday all-time record high of 5.2145 rand.

I will attempt to give an unbiased outlook on the intermediate-term prospects for worldwide gold mining shares, based upon a collection of the most important fundamental and technical indicators. The objective will be to indicate critical turning points in the market. The indicators are listed in order of importance, most important first. Information in boldface has been recently updated.

The current outlook is MODERATELY BULLISH, having risen from the previous rating of modestly bullish due to traders' commitments showing that commercials are once again net long COMEX gold futures. Gold's long-term outlook remains extremely bright, with the 1998 rally from a triple bottom confirming an extended multi-year base and pointing the way higher to potentially extremely higher prices over the next decade or so. Now that most of the disappointed late-arriving speculative longs have already liquidated, any downside move should be followed by a sharp recovery, with the most likely outcome a gradual resumption of the rally begun on January 12. Sentiment toward precious metals and their shares has turned sharply bearish, with those major-brokerage gold analysts who are compensated handsomely by short sellers inventing increasingly creative reasons for gold's recent weakness and redoubling their publicity campaign, a sure sign that they are trying mightily to get more speculators to jump on the short-selling bandwagon so that their own clients can cover their short positions early and into liquidity. Gold's sharpest price surge will occur after it regains its 200-day moving average spot price, and is likely to be combined with strongly positive on-balance accumulation ( its heaviest volume occurring during periods of rising prices ) and an intraday pattern of early dips followed by late recoveries and frequent late rallies.


Friday, May 22, 1998: The overall current outlook has edged up once again from MODESTLY BULLISH to MODERATELY BULLISH.

Friday, May 22, 1998: The traders' commitments indicator has risen further from MODESTLY BULLISH to MODERATELY BULLISH.

Friday, May 8, 1998: The overall current outlook has inched up from SLIGHTLY BULLISH to MODESTLY BULLISH.

Friday, May 8, 1998: The traders' commitments indicator has climbed from NEUTRAL to MODESTLY BULLISH.

Friday, April 24, 1998: The overall current outlook has declined again from MODESTLY BULLISH to SLIGHTLY BULLISH.

Friday, April 24, 1998: The traders' commitments indicator has fallen again from SLIGHTLY BULLISH to NEUTRAL.


One of the most important factors affecting the market is the traders' commitments as reported every second Friday by the COMEX. These commitments tell you what the commercials, or industry insiders, are doing vs. the non-commercial outsiders, also known as speculators. If the insiders, such as producers, jewelers, fabricators, and industrial users, are buying, while the speculators are selling short, this is BULLISH. If insiders are selling as fast as they can, while speculators are buying left and right, this is BEARISH. In any business, especially in commodities, people in the thick of things obviously know much more about the supply/demand situation than people who have no connection to the industry and are just trying to get rich quickly.

As of May 19, 1998, released at 3:30 p.m. on May 22, 1998, the commitments for COMEX gold futures show commercial insiders long 86,888, short 78,181; speculators long 12,490, short 29,737. Small traders were long 40,210, short 31,670. The average historic ratio for commercials is 2:3 long to short; for speculators, 2:1 long to short. This represents a moderate improvement over the previous two weeks, and is now MODERATELY BULLISH.


There is a strong correlation between commodity indices and the price of gold, which makes sense since gold is a proxy for all commodities. It is often said that the price of a good quality men's suit has always been equal to the price of one troy ounce of gold. This doesn't say, however, whether you got your suit on a markdown sale, or whether you prefer to shop at Brooks Brothers or at K-Mart. A quick check at Barney's showed their executive suits averaging about $600, so this is bullish for gold. ( Either that, or the price of men's suits is about to undergo a dramatic collapse! )

The Journal of Commerce ( JOC ) index is a basket of seventeen raw industrial materials used by the U.S. factory sector. It is designed to signal upcoming trends in the government's consumer price index by 6-9 months or more in advance. It is not nearly as publicized as its counterpart, the Commodity Research Bureau ( CRB ) index. Whenever the JOC is going in one direction and the CRB in another, the JOC has been more accurate historically in predicting a rise or fall in future inflation. This value will usually be reported with a one-day delay. On Friday, May 29, 1998, the JOC index closed up 0.22 at 96.07. On Tuesday, May 19, 1998, the JOC index closed at a four-year low of 94.59.

On Monday the CRB index rose to an early morning high of 216.53, then sank to an early afternoon low of 214.35 before closing down 0.99 at 214.91. The 240 level marks important resistance. Both the JOC and CRB indices have been in a long-term upward trend since August 1992.

This indicator is MODERATELY BEARISH.


The Economic Cycle Research Institute ( ECRI ) future inflation gauge ( FIG ) for April, released May 8, 1998, was at 110.3 compared to an upwardly revised 110.2 ( was 109.3 ) for March. Its smoothed annualized growth rate rose from 0.3% ( was -1.2% ) to 0.5%.

The Columbia University Center for International Business Cycle Research ( CIBCR ) monthly leading inflation index, released May 8, 1998 for the month of April, was measured at 103.3 after having been 103.0 in March ( revised upward from 102.7 ) . Its smoothed semi-annualized growth rate climbed from -2.3% ( was -2.9% ) to -1.5%.

This indicator is SLIGHTLY BEARISH.


Gold must always compete with time deposits as a short-term investment. Therefore, as interest rates rise, there is more to lose by being invested in the yellow metal rather than in an interest-bearing instrument. As interest rates fall, there is less to be sacrificed by being invested in gold. The recent economic and political volatility, especially in parts of the third world, will make it much more difficult for the Fed to raise short-term interest rates regardless of a moderate acceleration in domestic inflation. Almost surely the Fed will be unable to lower interest rates given the strong U.S. economy and year-over-year wage gains currently 4.4 percent in hourly terms, the highest wage inflation since 1983, coupled with a tight labor market. Worldwide concern about high unemployment seems roughly balanced with inflation vigilance, creating a general stalemate.

One key item to watch is the relative direction of short-term versus long-term interest rates in the U.S. If short-term rates are raised aggressively by the Federal Reserve, while long-term rates stabilize, this would be bearish for gold as short-term time deposits would become a more compelling investment, while inflation fears would be minimized due to steady long rates. On the other hand, if the Fed is slow to raise short-term rates, while long-term rates soar, this would show that inflation is a concern of market participants in the face of an indifferent or hamstrung Fed, which would cause gold prices to rise sharply. Notice that the U.S. Federal Reserve has done exactly nothing in many months.

On Wednesday, March 18, 1998, the Bank of Portugal cut its repo rate by 0.20% from 4.90% to 4.70%. On Thursday, March 19, 1998, Norway raised its deposit rate by 0.25% from 3.50% to 3.75%. On Wednesday, March 25, 1998, China cut its key interest rates by 0.60% apiece. On Tuesday, April 21, 1998, the Bank of Italy cut its discount and lombard rates by 0.50% each, with the discount rate now 5.00% and the lombard rate at 6.50%. On Tuesday, May 5, 1998, Denmark's National Bank raised its discount and repo rates by 0.50% each, with the discount rate now 4.00% and the repo rate at 4.25%.

This indicator is SLIGHTLY BULLISH.


If an officer of a corporation is buying stock in his or her own company, it is a strongly bullish sign, since such a person would logically be the most familiar with the actual profits and losses, as well as pending projects and other relevant news. Similarly, if a corporate insider is selling, even if the stated reason is to pay for a child's college education, it is clearly a reason for turning bearish, since that person has rejected this investment in favor of another course of action. The higher ranking the corporate insider involved, the more emphatic the signal, since the more knowledgeable such a person would be with the entire outlook of the company.

On Thursday, March 5, 1998, a small purchase was announced by a director of Hanover Gold Co., Inc. On Wednesday, March 11, 1998, a small sale was declared by a vice president of Royal Oak Mines. On Monday, March 23, 1998, a small purchase was announced by a director of Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold Inc. On Tuesday, March 24, 1998, a very small purchase was announced by a vice president of Alta Gold Co., Inc. On Friday, April 3, 1998, a very small purchase was announced by a director of Hanover Gold Co., Inc. On Wednesday, April 15, 1998, a very small sale was declared by the president of Royal Gold Inc. On Thursday, April 23, 1998, a very small purchase was announced by the president of Central Fund of Canada, Ltd. [a closed-end mutual fund consisting entirely of gold and silver bullion stored in vaults, and which has recently been selling at a modest discount to its net asset value]. On Wednesday, May 6, 1998, two purchases, one small and one very small, were announced by directors of Hanover Gold Co., Inc. On Wednesday, May 6, 1998, two sales, one moderate and one small, were declared by directors of Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold Inc. Class A. On Wednesday, May 6, 1998, a very small purchase was announced by a director of Battle Mountain Gold Co. On Thursday, May 14, 1998, two sales, one small and one very small, were declared by the president and a vice president, respectively, of Royal Gold Inc.

This indicator is SLIGHTLY BULLISH.


The behavior of silver, platinum, and palladium can serve as an early signal for gold, since these metals often rally or decline first. As is typical, silver continues to be more volatile over the short run than gold. After trading in early December 1996 at a very small discount to gold, spot platinum reached a huge premium to spot gold as it hit a new 7-year high in August 1997, then declined almost all the way back to its 1985 low in December 1997 before rebounding once again. If nothing else, this certainly debunks the myth that sentiment about any particular commodity is unlikely to change rapidly over a short period of time! Palladium has been rallying the most sharply and consistently since Tuesday, December 31, 1996. Silver made an upside breakout in late 1997 and again in 1998. Both platinum and palladium also made upside breakouts, with platinum reaching a 7-year high in 1997 and palladium soaring to a new all-time record high of $420 per ounce spot on Monday, May 18, 1998. Since all precious metals are subject to significant common fundamental factors, the multi-year highs that were set by palladium, platinum, and silver will eventually be enjoyed by gold once the enormous short-term combined downward pressure of gold loans and gold short selling is unwound.

The traders' commitments for these three metals as of May 19, 1998, released at 3:30 p.m. on May 22, 1998 varied widely, but all showed a marked improvement from two weeks earlier. For COMEX silver futures, commercial insiders were long 18,944, short 50,686; speculators long 30,551, short 13,975. This means that the commitments for silver are now strongly bearish, compared with extremely bearish two weeks ago. Looking at NYMEX platinum futures, commercial insiders were long 3,509, short 10,048; with speculators long 5,536, short 354, which remains extremely bearish for platinum, though showing a modest upgrade from two weeks earlier. For NYMEX palladium futures, commercial insiders were long 2,390, short 2,396; and speculators long 725, short 786. This is modestly bullish for palladium, and slightly better than two weeks ago.

This indicator remains SLIGHTLY BEARISH.


On Monday, January 12, 1998, the XAU touched 61.23, its lowest point since July 31, 1986. The XAU is thus forming an extended triple bottom from the bear market lows of July 25, 1986 ( 58.72 ) and November 27, 1992 ( 64.38 ) . Since February 1996 the XAU has been in a general downtrend, though momentum has improved dramatically since January 12, 1998. In November 1997, December 1997, and January 1998, virtually all gold mining shares hit new annual lows. Recent developments will be watched closely to see if the downward trendline can be convincingly broken, which could signal an upside breakout. A convincing rally from this point, of which we may be in the early stages, would establish the triple bottom as a bullish long-term technical base. The action in 1998, consisting of several drops followed by recoveries as well as April's surge upward in heavy volume, strongly supports the completion of the triple bottom in preparation for a sustained bull market in gold mining. The ability of the XAU to convert its former resistance level of 80 into a base of strong support increases the likelihood that the next significant move will be a sharp rally to challenge the key level of 100, which has served as both support and resistance many times in the past two decades. This support level is currently undergoing an important technical test. This indicator is SLIGHTLY BULLISH.

Silver touched $7.500 in the active March 1998 contract at 7:22 a.m. EST on Friday, February 6, 1998, the highest level for the active COMEX silver contract since July 25, 1988. Silver had previously made a bullish key reversal on Thursday, July 17, 1997, by touching its lowest point since October 1993 in early trading, and then rallying to end the day with a net gain. The silver/gold ratio continues generally to increase as the poor man's gold has steadily outperformed its yellow cousin since its generational bottom in the first week of February 1991 during the Gulf War, though this has somewhat reversed recently. Platinum, palladium and silver thus all made upside breakouts in 1997; palladium and silver once again in 1998. Gold broke below its 1985 lows, and is retesting levels from 1979, gold's strongest rally year to date. At 8 p.m. EST on Monday, January 12, 1998, gold touched $276.50 per troy ounce, its lowest spot price since June 28, 1979. The on-balance volume in 1998 trading supports the case that gold has shifted from an 18-year primary bear market, from January 21, 1980 through January 12, 1998, to a primary bull market, the duration of which may be more than a decade. Gold's ability to recover frequently from sharp early losses is typical of a strong technical market. This indicator is SLIGHTLY BULLISH.

Total gold mining equity option U.S. daily volume is slightly below normal levels, while put-call ratios are slightly above normal levels. This is SLIGHTLY BULLISH.

Synthesizing these three signals as a group, the price/volume statistics indicator has been raised once again to SLIGHTLY BULLISH. Further upgrades will require a convincing breakout above the downward trendline connecting the peaks on a weekly chart dating back to the first week of February 1996.


The XAU is a weighted index of large-capitalization gold mining shares, with management primarily based in Canada and the U.S. There is a historical correlation between the behavior of the XAU as it approaches or crosses any multiple of five, and the short-term future performance of the XAU. The most bullish behavior is if the XAU begins the day above a multiple of five, goes below a multiple of five during the day ( particularly if the intraday low is the lowest level in several weeks or more ) , then closes the day with a gain. The most bearish behavior is the exact opposite. On Monday, June 1, 1998, the XAU opened modestly lower at its intraday high of 74.07, then sank to close at its intraday low of 70.97, its lowest level since February 26. Since the key level of 70 held to the upside, this is SLIGHTLY BULLISH.


Similar to the way that some count advertisements in business publications or a survey of investor sentiment as a useful contrary indicator, consider the number of times this page is visited on a daily basis. If that number is less than 900, gold mining has become boring, which is generally bullish. If more than 1800 people access the page, the market is overexcited, which is bearish. Currently, there are about 1300 visits per business day, based upon reliable hourly samplings. This is NEUTRAL.


Since the Presidential election is over, there is no incentive for the government to prop up the stock and bond markets or to depress the prices of precious metals. In fact, the government would like the markets to perform poorly now, so that they can rally just before the election in the year 2000.


In 1982, as interest rates, crude oil, and commodities were finally declining from cyclical highs, investors were bailing out of mutual funds at a record rate, convinced that stocks were stupid ( they had lost three-quarters of their real value in the previous 16 years ) . The prevailing opinion in 1981 and 1982, as net withdrawals from mutual funds continued for month after month, was that since there was so much money in mutual funds ( ! ) , these outflows would remain a permanent drag on the stock market ( an early, very mild preview of 2000-2010? ) . Money surged into bank CDs, money market funds, and hard assets. Today, as interest rates, crude oil, and commodities are finally rising from cyclical lows, investors are pouring into mutual funds at a record rate, convinced that stocks are the place to be. Money is surging out of bank CDs, money market funds, and hard assets. Investors are truly inveterate followers of the thundering herd. Assuming that profits and dividends of U.S. corporations continue to grow at the same average rate that they have grown for the past thirty years, or even one hundred years, the stock market will decline by 82% of its value by the next bear market bottom assuming that the dividend yield at that point is 7.5%, the U.S. historic average. If one assumes that this will occur between the years 2000 and 2010, it would imply an inflation-adjusted decline of between 86% and 94%. Should the dividend yield touch 9%, which is quite plausible since panic bottoms often follow euphoric tops, the inflation-adjusted drop is likely to be between 95% and 98%. ( Note to skeptics: The Hong Kong stock market declined by 97% during the 1973-1974 bear market, and in past post-euphoric eras, a 97% fall was not unusual for markets as well established as London, Paris, and Amsterdam. ) Those who believe the myth that any drop in the stock market will be followed by an inevitable move to new highs should investigate what happened with those who invested in the London stock market in the summer of 1720 as compared with those who put their money into a bank CD at the same time-over the next 212 years, for instance. Stocks are a horrible investment, even over very long periods of time, when bought into a wild euphoria. Those who have been following developments in third world bourses may have noticed that many of them declined by more than two thirds in just a few months, and some by more than 90% in U.S. dollar terms, in spite of their economies having a higher GDP growth rate than the U.S. economy for two decades or more, and with no significant political or economic crises that caused these huge falls other than the same blatant historic overvaluation that can be found right here in the good old U.S.A. It has been a wild party, and the stock market a most gracious and generous host, but it's time to go home before you are trampled by the herd rushing to leave.

Call it the family and friends indicator--how many people do you know who recently put their money in the stock market after years of indifference and/or insistence upon safe investments? More to the point, do you know anyone who is NOT invested in U.S. equities! Who will be left to buy?

REPORTING FROM THE EUPHORIC ZONE--Guaranteed true footnotes to the baby boomer bubble ( a.k.a. tiptoe through the tulips ) :

A FOOL AND HIS MONEY ARE SOON PARTED-The following quotes were taken verbatim from the New York Times Business Section of Sunday, May 3, 1998, page 6 [no one could possibly make up this stuff, it's so absurd]: Keeping spare cash invested in the market, so as not to miss out on any of its seemingly continual rise, was the very reason that the Motley Fool, an on-line investment forum geared to individual investors, began early this year to invest a portion of its primary portfolio in Spiders. 'We don't try to make market calls' [being consistently hyper-euphoric doesn't count, I guess], wrote the Motley Fool investment analysts in explaining the decision. But if they cannot find enough stocks that they think will beat the market, 'for the time being we want to be in the market as a whole through the S.&P.' And while no one knows how stocks will perform, the analysts wrote, 'the way to conquer that disadvantage is to always own them.' [!!!] That logic made sense to Derek Banducci, 21 [luckily for him, he's young, he'll be broke at age 30 but he'll recover and have plenty to philosophize about], a junior studying economics and philosophy at Whitman College in Walla Walla, Washington, who monitors the Motley Fool Web site for help in investing the money he has saved for college. 'My basic assumption is that the market as a whole is going to be going up', Mr. Banducci said. Therefore, he has bought Spiders for both his 'conservative' portfolio-the money given to him by relatives to pay for college-and, using borrowed money, or margin, for his 'aggressive' portfolio, which includes money saved from his summer jobs. 'It's turned out pretty well for me', Mr. Banducci said. 'The only risk is that over the long run, I know stocks have averaged a 10 percent return, and I'm paying margin interest of 9 percent. But looking over the past five years, the S.&P. is up significantly more. So I should be able to easily beat what I'm paying for the margin loan.' [This guy will make the perfect economist!]

THERE'S A LOT OF BUILDING IN THE POTATO FIELDS--According to the New York Times Real Estate section of April 12, 1998, lead article, page 1, The house on Shore Road in the Cape Cod community of Chatham, Massachusetts, wasn't selling at $500,000. Rather than fix it up, the owner tore it down and is building something new. 'He feels there's a better market at $1 million for a new house,' said Marie Connolly, owner of Connolly Real Estate in Chatham. . . . Perhaps nowhere is the strength of the waterside market so dramatic as in the rarefied heights of waterfront homes in the Hamptons [a few hours east of downtown Manhattan]. So in demand are oceanfront estates that one owner is asking a breathtaking $19.5 million. For that a buyer can have a 13,600-square-foot contemporary home on Further Lane in East Hampton with 288 feet of Atlantic Ocean frontage included in its 11 acres. 'Is it wishful thinking?' said Frank Newbold, head of the Sotheby's International Realty office in East Hampton. 'No it's not. It's got to the point of literally knocking on doors on the ocean and in the estate area. We'll have a customer who says, I want to be on this particular street, and price isn't a problem if you find me the right house. ' . . . In New Jersey, brokers in shore communities are also finding prices rising with increased demand. 'One of the things I've been saying is How do you spend $180,000 for a $170,000 house?-just wait 30 days, ' said Jack Waters, regional vice president for Weichert Real Estate for Ocean and Monmouth County. 'That's how prices are moving, and that's in all markets, not just our beach markets.' Aside from water, another factor that will boost the price tag is being close to a charming ( or trendy ) village. Melanie Ross, president of Cook Pony Farm Real Estate on Long Island, used the example of a village home in East Hampton that was on the market this year at $350,000. The house, which did not have a lot of extras, was expected to sell in the $340,000 range. 'It sold in about two weeks for $15,000 over the asking price', she said, attributing the increase to location and lack of inventory. While there are still some houses around East Hampton and Southampton for sale under $200,000, those prices are generally closer to what is being paid for land alone. 'There's a lot of building in the potato fields', Ms. Ross said [exactly as in Holland during the tulip mania!-talk about eerie parallels] . . . In the rolling hills of Columbia County two hours north of Manhattan, a visitor need look only as far as Main Street in Hudson to gauge the market. 'In the last five or six years, about 60 antique shops have opened, and there are now eight cappuccino machines in town', said Stephen Kingsley, president of Hudson Michael Realty.' . . . While the current market in the Northeast is being likened to the heady days of the 1980's [when Manhattan was a high-crime zone, the dividend yield on the S&P500 was considered outrageous below 3%, and yellow ties were popular, for you younger baby boomers who don't remember those days], brokers say, there are some differences. Much of the buying then was done on borrowed or leveraged money. Properties were being purchased and then resold after a few years. Today buyers are often coming in and paying significant amounts-50 to 100 percent of the price-in cash.

The price-to-earnings ratio of the Standard and Poor's 500 Stock Index ( average stock price divided by average earnings per share ) closed at 28.46 on Wednesday, April 22, 1998, a new all-time record, as measured by Dow Jones Newswires. For comparison with a bear market bottom, this value averaged 5.9 in the second quarter of 1949.

The savings rate of U.S. investors hit a post-World War II low of 3.8% in 1997-half the savings rate of the previous generation. [Apparently, baby boomers believe they can save only half as much as their parents did, since the stock market will of course make up the difference. This should explode the myth popularized by some brokerages and mutual fund holding companies that increased savings in the form of 401Ks, IRAs, etc., are responsible for the stock market rally. Yes, 401K investments have increased, but this is far more than compensated for by a sharp drop in new taxable investments. Ironically, this has led to a strange complacency among baby boomers unconcerned with so-called short-term movements in the stock market, since they will not be using their money for a period of years. Over 90% of the total new investment in mutual funds has been comprised of transfers from retirees and near-retirees switching from a lifetime of safe, traditional savings accounts, GICs, annuities, and bank CDs into mutual funds.]

The total value of stock market shares held by U.S. residents exceeds the total value of all real estate held by U.S. residents.

According to the front page of the New York Times business section on Wednesday, October 22, 1997, a survey by Montgomery Asset Management of San Francisco found that the median expectation for current investors in U.S. equities is for an average annual gain of 34 percent for the next ten years, the highest in any such survey in history, and surpassing the previous record of a 22 percent anticipated annual gain in a virtually identical prior survey by the same pollsters in early 1997.

The number of U.S. listed mutual funds substantially exceeds the number of U.S. listed stocks, with more mutual funds being added every month.

In late June 1997, the State of New Jersey finalized an arrangement to borrow 2.8 billion dollars at an interest cost of 7.6% and an up-front fee of fifty million dollars in order to invest the money in U.S. equities.


In the financial markets, stock price behavior has filed for a restraining order from corporate reality, and although the courtroom spectators anticipate that there will be no problems with having such a motion granted, the truth is that they are Siamese twins who cannot be separated.

If a Martian or other alien were to obtain a copy of the financial section of any newspaper dated 1998, he/she would conclude that there is no intelligent life on Earth.

We have seen the Goldilocks economy, but the full title of the story is Goldilocks and the Three Bears. Just as in the children's tale, the next character to appear is Baby Bear-i.e., a Dow drop of about 25% from the peak to some level below 7000.

Friends don't let friends own stocks ( except for gold mining ones from time to time, of course ) .

Participation in the equities market has increased the most in percentage terms from women, minorities, and those of diverse ethnic backgrounds, while most ticker reporting services are now transmitting financial data in real time. We are about to experience the first live broadcast, equal opportunity bear market.


The stock market attempted to rally this morning, encouraged by PPI data indicating that wholesale inflation is creeping back down to an annual level of just above five percent after having been as high as seven percent one year ago, but a late wave of mutual fund redemptions once again caused the market to end the day with a net loss, with the Dow ending down 10.23 at 1338.32. The broader market showed a brighter picture as advancers edged out decliners on the NYSE by a ratio of 9 to 8. It's hopeless, said one observer, who wished to remain unnamed, no matter how bullish the economic fundamentals, we still have so much money in mutual funds that we could have net outflows of ten billion dollars a month for the next 15 years and still not completely eliminate the overhang. The dividend yield on the S&P 500 is now 9.63%, the highest level since the Great Depression. In an attempt to stimulate investment in U.S. equities, the President as expected signed new tax legislation reducing the top capital gains rate to 18% regardless of the holding period, though few expected the action to have much effect. Just another instance of too little, too late--I wouldn't even try to call a bottom here, said another respected analyst. In spite of the fact that we have the strongest post-recession recovery in U.S. history, I can think of no reason to be invested in U.S. stocks. Bob Gabele of Insider Chronicle noted that although individual investors are bailing out of mutual funds at a record rate, the managers of mutual fund holding companies and top executives at nearly all major brokerages have been recording the greatest concentration of insider buying since the early 1950s. The possibility that this heavy insider buying, which extends across virtually all stock market sectors, could signify an approaching stock market bottom was scoffed at by one veteran NYSE observer. They just feel they have to make a public display of confidence-nothing more or less. Only an idiot could expect the market to stabilize, much less rally, with the shape it's in. To no one's surprise, this week has seen another 27 U.S. mutual funds announcing their merger or liquidation, bringing the total number of mutual funds to about one quarter of their peak a decade ago.

Precious metals gained once again today, with gold adding $12.10 to $1344.80, silver climbing 37.5 cents to $38.744, platinum soaring $18.60 to $1530.30, and palladium edging up $2.20 to $782.90. Analysts attribute the white metals' recent strong rally to surging industrial demand, while the fundamentals for gold remain clearly bullish, say most traders. A report from the World Gold Council indicating that the total world's mined supply is now more than twice the total fabrication demand was generally ignored, as the actual supply-demand figures are no longer considered to be relevant to the market behavior. COMEX gold traders' commitments show commercials net short more than 150,000 contracts for the first time ever. According to Lipper Analytical Services, the average gold mutual fund has returned 38.3% per year for the past ten years, even with the 2004 crash that saw most gold mining shares drop by 40%-50% in five months. Obviously, one doesn't have to be a rocket scientist to make money in gold mining-just buy on dips and hold on forever, said the chief analyst at Merrill Lynch Goldman. When asked if it was significant that the price of an ounce of gold exceeded the level of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the first time since 1980, she said: It was obvious a long time ago that this would probably happen sooner or later.


The price of gold exceeded $420 an ounce in 1989, 1990, and 1991, but could not close above $425 in either year. In 1988 the yellow metal briefly touched $500. Therefore, once gold closes above $425 an ounce, this event will trigger an upside breakout causing the price to surge rapidly to $500. Notice that exactly this kind of upside breakout occurred in 1997 first in palladium, then platinum, and finally in silver. As euphoria begets euphoria, the stock market blowoff will also act as a stimulative spur to increase the likelihood of such a move happening in gold. The resulting public attention and likely insider selling will cause a counter-reaction, causing it to retreat all the way back to $380 before rallying again.

When gold reaches $500 an ounce, the XAU will make a euphoric top around 270. This will happen three to nine months after the S&P 500 begins to decline. The subsequent drop to $380 will cause the XAU to make an intermediate-term bottom near 130. That will occur as stability is temporarily restored to the general equity markets. ( Since platinum touched $500 per ounce in 1997 and then fell back, this makes a useful technical guide for gold. )


In January 1980, spot gold traded at $850 per troy ounce while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was about 800. Late Friday afternoon, March 20, 1998, the Dow to gold ratio went slightly above 30.6, a new all-time record. As the bear market approaches its inevitable nadir sometime in the next decade, we might see the Dow at 1850 ( dividend yield 7.5%, indicating a moderately severe bear market bottom ) and gold at $1000 per ounce ( adjusted for inflation, equal to its average price from 1979 through 1983 ) . Since panic bottoms often follow euphoric tops, and vice versa, one could imagine the Dow at 1485 ( dividend yield 9%; it was 11% in July 1932 ) with gold at $1500 per ounce ( adjusted for inflation, its January 1980 peak will top $2000 per ounce in a few years ) . If these numbers seem absurd, consider what an investor from any month in the early 1980s would think upon getting a sneak preview of the financial section of today's newspaper!


My current outlook is MODERATELY BULLISH. It is clear that commercials are eager to accumulate at any price below $300 spot, a level which also has demonstrated strong physical buying. Once investors are convinced that gold has a powerful base of support at $300, the yellow metal is likely to once again attempt to test the upside. The multi-year triple bottom seems to have been clearly established with the recent sharp rally, thus establishing a solid base in preparation for a potentially enormous, very long term bull market in precious metals and their shares. If one compares the behavior of the general stock market from 1982 through 1986, this provides a similar parallel example ( though gold mining usually retraces the same patterns over a much shorter total period of time ) , with the initial powerful rally from July 1982 leading to a temporarily unsustainable top and sudden correction before the next, strong bull phase was underway. Since the chance for a sudden sharp selloff in gold always exists, such pullbacks should be used as an opportunity to purchase undervalued gold mining shares. Keep an eye on the JOC commodity index as a trend setter.


( c ) 1996-1998 Steven Jon Kaplan Your comments are always welcome.


AUTOBIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH-I was born and raised in Baltimore, Maryland, U.S.A., and was graduated from the Johns Hopkins University with a Bachelor of Engineering Science degree in May 1982. I have been studying the precious metals markets since the 1970s, and began this web site in August 1996. I maintain a fiercely independent stand toward the financial markets, and am not compensated by any person or organization with the exception of the advertising banners posted on this site. I am also a music composer, pianist, computer programmer, bridge player, and runner, and enjoy world travel.

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Original fiction by yours truly ( it will take time to type them all in ) .
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LE FastCounter

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 01:47
Hedgehog (Rubin/World Economies=Buy Gold) ID#39857:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 01:41
downunder__A (weiser ,question) ID#27341:
where do you think gold is going in the next 20$ ?.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 01:35
weiser (downunder) ID#202123:
Actually, I should not have asked that question in the first place, being as I am new here. But I do appreciate the reply and will follow up on it.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 01:32
Prospector (Financial Post Special Report on Mining) ID#222448:
Copyright © 1998 Prospector/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Some Financial Post articles that my interest some of you. It was part of a special report on mining. They had commentary on silver and gold ( bullion ) prospects - which I did not see on there site unfortunately but where in the paper itself. The gold commentary talked about gold hedging by producers and the pros and cons.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 01:26
Schippi (Fidelity Select Gold Chart) ID#93199:
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Very disappointing to see the Select Gold Funds
exhibit the GREATEST sector rate of descent !

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 01:26
downunder__A (Test that) ID#27341:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 01:25
mozel (@Widows) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
There is a consensus among some that the Widow in Atlantic City was an idiot, who had a poor lawyer. Do we expect poor widows to be able to hire the best lawyers ? If so, who will be left to represent the Trumps ? Is justice supposed to depend on the quality of your lawyer ? I always thought justice was about right and wrong. Still do.

Well, I think attitudes like these toward the widow portend ill. They portend profound moral corruption. Widows and orphans are by definition, defenceless. There is something fundamentally indecent about calling someone's mother an idiot. There is something fundamentally corrupt for calling a widow an idiot for expecting the government that her family supported with taxation for lo these many years to protect her right to her property. And defend her from an outrageous speculator. Were widows excluded from the people whose rights were secured when the government was established ? I find no record of it.

It was probably not just the house that was ugly. The widow was probably ugly, too. Old, wrinkled, careworn. All she asked was to live out her days in the familiar house of her memories. Her family home.

This is what comes of breaking eggs to make omelets in the service of socialism, corporate socialism, nazism, communism, fascism, ...ism. Real people are hurt. Leave me out the crowd that would justify putting widows on the street.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 01:25
weiser (THIS IS IT) ID#202123:

Kitco has no com., Grab your kids, grab your wife--- GRAB YOUR GOLD--- and get the heck in your outside shelter. It is the Judgement.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 01:19
downunder__A (weiser) ID#27341:
i would not say, i am well informed, this site is well informed, i only keep an eye on bloombergs or yahoo international, when they want us to, sometimes the japanese topix or oz financial rev site.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 01:14
weiser (WW that is) ID#202123:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 01:13
weiser (test) ID#202123:

Hello? Just a test to make sure WWWIII hasn't started

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:49
6pak (FWIW @ Much Much Reading, from Down-under ( Take Care, I am Gone)) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Calling the 'Price Drop'

[Based upon The Recovery Myth]

An economic analysis by Bryan Kavanagh AVLE ( Val ) director, Land Values Research Group, Melbourne


The Need For A New Economic Vision

Western analysts at first portrayed revolutionary turbulence in Poland, the disintegration of the USSR and Yugoslavia, collapse of the Berlin wall, and turmoil across the whole of eastern Europe in terms of the fatally-flawed Marxist economy.

However, as free markets in the West have also ground into recession, there is growing apprehension among their peoples ( if seemingly not among their experts and institutions ) that something is terribly amiss.

In view of the monumental scale of world events, it may be therapeutic for economists to contemplate the possibility that economic depression is settling across the globe, but they remain in denial phase, claiming that hesitant economic growth during 1994 signified an end to recession in the West.

For people intelligently contemplating the implications of record levels of public and private debt, high unemployment and gross under-investment, the advent of consecutive quarters of GDP growth per se is a ludicrous manner in which to define recovery.

By clinging tenaciously to this completely inadequate technical definition, modern economists appear to have lost all touch with reality, and to be only serving a ceremonial function in society. Both facts and common sense declare them benighted in their optimism.

The media nevertheless seized upon this economic 'good news' uncritically, choosing to ignore that its bearers were the same analysts who failed not only to predict the economic downturn, but who have an unequalled ability for 'getting it wrong'. In contrast, on 1 May 1984, we forecast a land boom at the end of the 1980s, followed by deepening worldwide recession throughout the '90s. It was no guess.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:44
weiser (Downunder) ID#202123:
You seem to be pretty well informed. Do you mind if I ask about links to the Asian markets to see what is going over there tonight ( USA time ) .

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:43
IDT (20-20 program) ID#228128:
Fred: I agree. She should have taken the money and ran and she needs a new lawyer.

Steve: Here in Louisiana we don't go through as much trouble. Here the cops just pull you over on the interstate, plant a few joints in the car, and then confiscate your car and money. But, they do let you keep your house.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:36
sharefin (Spock - esp BC.) ID#284255:
Email chatter:
From Larry Abraham, Insider Report Throughout Indonesia and elsewhere in the region most of the people fleeing the country were the Chinese businessmen and shopkeepers who have borne the brunt of mob animosity. Where these people will take their families and their money is open for speculation. Singapore and Hong Kong already are so overcrowded that new Chinese immigration is overtly discouraged even though both are prime examples of overseas Chinese Industriousness and success. The Republic of China on Taiwan overtly discourages new arrivals. Such places as New Zealand, Australia, Canada and Panama pay lip service to Chinese immigration through various residency schemes, tied to investments, but are taking a go-slow approach as the numbers increase. If any significant number of these people take their money and their expertise back to the mainland and settle into the burgeoning economic free-zones, Communist China could end up being the long-term beneficiary of Southeast Asian chaos. Their dollar and pound deposits in the banks would only enhance hard-currency reserves and their production know-how would greatly expand efficiencies in an export-driven economy. Watching what happens to these people is a very important macroeconomic consideration over the months and years ahead. On a personal note, I wish the government and peoples of Chile and Argentina were not so prejudiced against Oriental immigration. Both countries, which are underpopulated, could benefit mightily by welcoming to their shores some significant number of overseas Chinese.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:31
Spock (Sharefin) ID#210114:
Nobody is for the people. Everyone is for themselves.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:29
downunder__A (AZAU.) ID#27341:
Try this, it may be of some help,

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:29
Spock (Cmax) ID#210114:
Market arn't logical. Live Long and Propser.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:28
Spock (Nothing Bullish for Gold) ID#210114:
Financial collapse in Asia, contagion spreading to Russia, Dow looking wobbly, nuclear weapons going off in India and Pakistan, and Price of Gold is FALLING!!!

Gold dead as a finacial instrument

Hmmmm could be.

Live Long and Propser ( on the stockmarket. )

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:25
downunder__A (AZAU yes Bartons,) ID#27341:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:12
Cmax (@no man's land) ID#339320:

There is no logical reason for today’s activities. There no longer is any rationality in the stox and PM markets. It is my firm belief that even the “manipulative” powers that be have run to the edge of the world economic envelope, and they KNOW that we are now in “no man’s land”. From here on down, it is only a matter of who is the greater fool.
Nothing good shall come of this, in medium to long terms. Yes, I’m frightened. Buy PM’s all the way to the have no other choice.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:12
AZAU (Question) ID#247273:
Is there an Asian index? Comprised of weighted components of various indices? Would like to see such a composite to know the overall state of the market. Similarly, a composite for eastern Europe, South America, and so on. Also the weighting would change as the market cap of each index grows or shrinks. This approach gives a clear big picture, and shows shifting of money around to prop up markets in sequence ( zero sum ) . Your inputs, please?

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:10
downunder__A (Say goodbye to D 9.200, for you may never see it again.) ID#27341:

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:08
robnoel__A (mapelman...I really wanted to smoke out female kitcos......oh well off to bed..see you guys) ID#411112:


Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:06
mapleman (y2k) ID#348127:

What do yk the chances are that a thinking man is going to let his mey ride in the market in the second half of next year. If y2k problem is only half as severe as I have been reading that it likely to be, the market will implode. The big question here is how will get suckered into the
we have it under control
propaganda. Well if 's anything like the this market isn't overvalued propaganda, January 3 2000 will be proclaimed the day of the goldbug and be celebrated for years to come.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:04
EJ (Everything you know about gold and silver is wrong...) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...if you're under a certain age. The reason my 35 yr old millionaire friend the other night thought that lousy 1921 Morgan Silver was worth hundreds of dollars is not because the coin is rare, but because it was rare to HIM. Hand over a 1 oz gold coin to someone who has never seen one. They are overwhelmed. What? Are you crazy carrying this thing around!? another friend said when handling my well-circulated 1908 St. Gaudens. He figured it worth thousands of dollars. Now, multiply that perception times millions of humans, take away their confidence in equities and dollars, let a few lead-buffalo investors start talking up gold and silver, get a little press coverage of rising gold prices and... viola!



Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:02
D.A. ( ID#7568:
Copyright © 1998 D.A./Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

The front page of the WSJ had an extraordinarily important story and narry a word of it has been mentioned here at the Kitco funeral.

Nearly 8 years ago the current 'deflationary' wave was set off by the collapse of the bloated real estate market in Japan. The most bubbly of all land holdings were in downtown Tokyo, where the value of commercial real estate at the time, was estimated to be somewhat greater than that of the entire West Coast of the USA.

Since the collapse, values are down something on the order of 80%, a large 'correction' by anyone's reckoning. Apparently, a very surprising thing has occured to owners of these properties. In the year ending 1997, total return ( capital appreciation/depreciation + rental income ) from these properties was in the black to the tune of nearly 4%. In addition, occupancy rates are somewhere in the neighborhood of 96% and foreign need for office space in the wake of the big bang 'deregulation' is driving new construction.

Given that 10 year yen paper sells at 1.25% it would appear that the possibility of a reflation is definitely at hand. Low interest rates by themselves do not guarantee an expansion of credit but they do set the stage. Once some sector of the economy can be seen to return a sum somewhat greater than the going finance rate the game can begin. The lower the return threshold, the easier it is for a spark to catch.

Much of the problems in the Japanese banking sector are tied directly to the sour real estate loans of the late 80's. Should the underlying asset begin to perform in even a tiny positive way, the cycle could well reverse. If this scenario begins to play, the Nikkei will act more strongly than expected, and a reversal in the Yen may not be far behind. This could lead to a final push in the US stock markets as the threat of global deflation recedes. The real monster of Fed tightening may begin breathe life.

Needless to say, this would be an extremely bullish scenario for gold.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:02
sharefin (Email chatter) ID#284255:
From Larry Abraham's Insider Report ALBRIGHT TO PERES TO ARAFAT When all the photo-ops and handshaking were going on in Wa. to announce a Pakistan/Israeli peace accord, I told you it wouldn't happen. Yasir Arafat would do what any Marxist terrorist is trained to do, he would always ask for more. Now as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu tries to hold the line against Arafat's demands, former Prime Minister Shimon Peres, U.S. Secretary of State Albright, and of course the IMF, have arranged for a back-door $50 million loan to Arafat to establish, unilaterally, a separate Palestine state. If Peres, a defeated candidate, is allowed to collaborate with a sworn enemy in direct opposition to his government's policies, it can only be called by one name...treason. He, along with the U.S. State Department and the liberal Jewish community in the United States, are now ( as I have called them in the past ) Israel's greatest threat. Arafat is now No.2.

Date: Tue Jun 02 1998 00:01
sharefin (Email Chatter - gosh there goes the bull) ID#284255:
Chuck Harder on radio program For the People, which is aired daily on over 300 stations in the U.S. today stated according to his contacts in WA, which are extremely reliable, have Bill Clinton leaving the Whitehouse before July 4th. He will be resigning with a full pardon, handing the controls over to Al Gore. If Bill Clinton does not resign, he says that he will end up in jail. The reason the pressure is on Clinton to resign by July 4th is allow a healing time for the Democratic party before the fall election. The Democratics know they are going to get creamed if they don't do something and they are running scared. I have been listening to Chuck Harder and I can truthfully say, he is about 90% correct in what he says on the radio. This is the only guy that I know of who really is For the People

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