KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:57
Organ (Thanks mozel / Canadian vs American central banks) ID#198328:
Copyright © 1998 Organ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I have to agree with the earlier comments praising the clear thinking and communication of Mozel. The absurdity of us free people using debt as money has never been made so stark. I wonder -- does the same situation exist in Canada? When a Canadian dollar is created, where is the one dollar credit noted? As I understand it, the Bank of Canada is owned by the Canadian people, so our credit currency is simultaneously a debit to ourselves. I think that the public ownership of the Canadian central bank vs the private ownership of the Fed is a crucial difference. In Canada, at least the interest on our currency ( huh? absurd! ) is largely payable to ourselves, instead of a consortium of private banks.

- Organ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:55
BCIWN (Plutomium futures) ID#206298:
Of coarse they will buy plutonium futures. The other answers are ludicrest. Well, they might buy cows too though. What was the question?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:52
NJ (Clinton) ID#20748:
May withdraw executive privilege appeal.

In the meantime he has public convinced that Starr is the one spending too much money and causing endless delays. That's a political genius at work.

http://www.drudgereport.com/1.htm


Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:52
RJ (..... Aurator .....) ID#410215:

The first two lack dignity

And the last is just too close to the truth

Uh Huh

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:51
BCIWN (reply to Preacher:) ID#206298:
Thanks preacher. I couldn't find anything either. Sometimes that kind of move is just a mutual fund collecting or speculation on a lawsuit or something like that. But if you do call the company, I would appreciate hearing what they said.
Thanks
Walker

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:50
Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug (India & Gold & Silver) ID#432214:
Copyright © 1998 Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Why will sanctions reduce gold & silver consumption? India is the land where rats are revered and cows don't make it to the barbecue. The sanctions will mean that ML and other brokerage firms will have to wait a little longer to sell index linked GICs..

To make lots of money you have to answer this skill testing question

In the face of isolation The Indian people will:

a ) Buy US balanced funds
b ) Ethical funds
c ) Buy Indian Gov't bonds
d ) Plutonium futures
e ) Do what they have been doing and buy gold & silver.


Go Gold

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:49
MtHighNC ((Chas)) ID#347239:
Good to see another fellow goldbug in WNC ...I live up the road from you.. near Boone

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:48
aurator (.............RJ.............) ID#255284:
RJ
Do you mean you don't like fancy pants or thong-man? How about dotty?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:48
downunder__A (The PPT,s are working overtime today,and tonight me thinks.) ID#27341:
GM

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:47
RJ (..... Dots? .....) ID#410215:

........................= X

..... It is a Mystery .....


Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:46
MtHighNC (()) ID#347239:
test

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:45
NJ (Tyler Rose) ID#20748:
Trying the globex url, again.

http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:44
NJ (Tyler Rose) ID#20748:
Seems like a down day tomorrow. Look at Globex.

http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:43
Let X=X__A (lways wanted to know, rj:) ID#317191:

whats with the dots?


Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:40
RJ (..... Addendum .....) ID#410215:

Sigh


Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:38
RJ (..... Aurator .....) ID#410215:

How come I never got an endearing nickname?

Lot's of Crustys and Saltys and Brothers about but I am left with just these forlorn initials looking like they're wondering what they are going to be when they grow up.


Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:38
Tyler Rose (NJ - Asian Markets) ID#373164:
Thanks, NJ for that url for Bloomberg. I couldn't believe all of those markets were closed.

Tyler Rose


Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:37
Preacher (BCIWN & CFCM) ID#225273:
I looked all over the net on Friday night to find the answer to your question and didn't come up with anything.
I plan on calling the company in the morning and see what's up.

This is a great story just waiting to happen. It holds commercial real estate in Utah that is worth a good bit more than it's market cap.
It has plans to put the Trixie mine back into production and Friday's spike may have something to do with an announcement to that effect.

I'll find out what I can tomorrow.

The Preacher

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:32
aurator () ID#255284:
RJ
X=X_A = Algebra fella = algie, you gotta pay attention.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:29
NJ (Asian Markets) ID#20748:
Not a pretty picture.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/asia.html

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:29
Let X=X__A (t: tollerant1) ID#317191:

what = namaste'?

rj = thanks


Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:25
cherokee__A (@......seeing.with.burnt.orbs.....) ID#344308:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee__A All rights reserved

there were 26 recorded ';el ninos over the last 100 years....

guess how many earthquakes occured DURING each ';el nino

2+........i repeat........2+ .

my california friends.......

'if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have stood on the
shoulders of giants'.............sir isaac newton.

'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction'..sir isaac.

'the farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can SEE'...
.......sir winston churchill.

prepare as if your lives depend upon it......those in your care do.

cherokee!;..looking.backward.to.see.forward....

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:25
Gollum (@Let X=X) ID#43349:
Hey! I didn't make you 0. MY last line was
2=1. That makes twicw as much.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:24
RJ (..... Yep .....) ID#410215:

aurator -

Wish I was on the mark at $400, but it will work out.

?Algie?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:24
downunder__A (John B) ID#27341:
i think gold stocks will go a little lower yet.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:22
Gollum (@Ron) ID#43349:
Oh, I don't know that I would call it Gollum's proof.
More like Gollum's spoof.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:20
RJ (..... No Hurries and No Worries .....) ID#410215:

= X

Your handle seems to stand for equality

Prove your worth, they will take note

All here are eager for kindred spirits

But can smell a panderer from a mile away

This is not an easy place to break into

But once you do, you have found family

Yes

PS

Don’t look for panderer in your Webster’s, it will not be found.

It is an ugly and ungainly word, but I can’t think of one that fits better.

Awaaaaaaaaay........................tofirstdeliverynoticeonthejunecontract


Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:19
John B__A (Australia as Usual not helping) ID#211105:
Gold stocks fell as much as 2.2 percent as bullion dipped below US$293 in Asian trade. Normandy Mining ( AUS:NDY ) eased three cents to A$1.44, as did Lihir Gold to A$2.02.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:18
bej () ID#263133:
RJ With the recent rather steep slide in Platinum, does this still fit with your earlier take on a significant rebound in coming months, or is there a dynamic here that is confusing everyone as to what the next direction will be and from what bottom it will start from? Thanx.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:17
aurator (Give me a broom, where the buffaloes roam...) ID#255284:
algie
I wouldn't belong to any clique that would have me. Welcome to kitco.

SETTLEMENT RISK

Okee, thinking about trading on TOCCOM? got me thinking about settlement risk. Are there any measures of settlement risk? I cannot see how it could be quantified a priori an incapacity to settle. Anyone help this puzzled, puzzled, thinker?

Janitaurator

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:17
Ron (x=x) ID#413195:
Hope you don't think I made you 0. I just made a minor correction to Gollum's proof.

Are you really RJ? Last night you said you were.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:11
Ron (deutschland unter älles) ID#413195:
EJ: Yep. I think the world will rue the day it allowed unification. If I had my way, it'd be a quiltwork of 168 different nations. We should break it up and give one chunk to each country in the world. Kind of a gigantic embassy row.

'Ya know they've always lusted after the Bomb. Can't understand why France should have one and them not. Now that the Paks have have gone nuclear, Teutonic indignation is bound to rise over the insult.

But the day they get the Bomb is the day I begin digging my hole in the ground . . . a unique people . . .

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:11
downunder__A (ABC News-Data shows Asia heading for severe recession.) ID#27341:
The National Institute for Economic and Industry Research say,s.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:09
Let X=X__A (t: rj) ID#317191:

last night i = just x

then aurator made me = rj

then gollum and others made me = 0

although their math was flawed

how do you break into this clique?

i have lurked for a year and feel i know everybody pretty good

and i feel i have some perspective to offer

but a new guy has his work cut out for him, yes?


Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:08
tolerant1 (arby.........................Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...............an) ID#373284:
answer...soon...without the baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa....NAMASTE'...

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:06
sharefin (Cmax @ MOZEL's Words of Wisdom') ID#284255:
-
I am willing to take on the task of compiling MOZEL's
Words of Wisdom'

Something similiar to 'ANOTHER's transcripts'?

Any thoughts on input?
sharefin@cairns.net.au



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Email chatter
~~~
Though we can have brief bouts of deflation, our economy is fundamentally inflationary, as we send off dollars for the goods of others. So, I'm not really worried about deflation. I know one thing as an ancient bond traders. The bond prices sure aren't calling for deflation. Despite turmoil in Asia and the non-earnings of our cos., we still see goods inflation. It is not high, especially not compared to the runaway inflation of stocks and real estate, but it hasn't turned negative, either. When is the last time you saw somebody negotiate a salary decrease?

So, my guess is that this financial inflation ends with a bang, not a whimper, and folks who thought they were rich owning Micron at $95 will rush to buy goods that they can barter or that will at least make them feel as though they have something. That will shift demand and prices rapidly. Of course, even if I'm wrong, overpriced stocks, on which I own puts, will fare much worse than cheap commodities.
I am happy to play straight man for The Naughty Business Report

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:04
gagnrad (re asian gold dumping) ID#43460:
Perhaps they're dumping so as to get greenbacks to buy/lease us property?
I heard on the radio today the the Peoples Republic of China is putting up an offer to lease one of our former naval bases ( closed by their buddy Clinton ) as a container port. Now, it might look disadvantageous to be buying dollars when they're so expensive, but political bribes have to be produced at exactly the right moment to be effective. IMHO

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:04
aurator (Long live little silver----- Viva platina!!) ID#255284:
-
Reify
Here's that Thai Beef curry recipe again

http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q2/1998_05/980531.005423.auratoree.htm

And a good site by an ex-merkan now living in NZ
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q2/1998_05/980531.010536.auratoree.htm

Bj said, Now what you want to go telling them about that for, they'll all want to come? I said, Cos I love merkans even more than I love beenie babies.


On to serious stuff. The more I read this Plat review, the more convinced I am that RJ was right on the money, if you're a trader, you want to look at Plat very closely, the metal has predictable volatility, a very thin market, there will be more action in platinum than my precious, more opportunity for wealth enhancement. But I'm a janitor, not a trader, so I'll sweep out the ashes in the morning...

TOCOM currently has reserves of 21,123 oz ( that's end of Dec 97, anyone know current reserves? ) down from 75,000 oz at beginning of year, ie vast stock drawdowns, open interest looked to be averaged 5 Moz ( which is about the same as total annual production ) October saw record volume of trading equal to 21 Moz for the month. That's 21 Moz of paper plat supported by 21,000 oz of actual platinum. And you thought comex gold paper was highly geared?

Now, the wild card, as I see it is the Platinum stored under the futon. What if the japanese one day wake up and decide to sell platinum? The JM figures say that Japan has accumulated 15 M0z of Plat these past 10 years. What would the price of Plat in ¥ have to be to trigger dishoarding?




Platinaur@tor_questionsandno_answers

Date: Sun May 31 1998 23:00
RJ (..... Surf's Up .....) ID#410215:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

The storm is in another hemisphere, just off Easter Island.

Most people think of the West Coast as, well…. West. Around here, though, the ocean is south. These unseen and faraway storms can bring the most bodacious waves even though the sky above is calm and clear. Today is a day such as that.

The Wedge in Newport is where a ¼ mile stone jetty juts into the sea at cross purposes to the prevailing wave pattern. Rather than ride along the Jetty, certain swells hit the rock at an oblique angle, bounce back, and merge with it's own flank to become a point of water that curls in on itself. Because of this unique property, the break there is 5 - 10 feet higher than anywhere else in So Cal experiencing the same swell.

This is bodyboard water, with fins and guts and reckless abandon, and little suited to surfers of other ilk; excepting those with quick cut precision on a short board. The break is all wrong for a surfboard. The damn point ( the Wedge ) sometimes gives enough of a right curl, but it is just as likely to send you into the rocks and the nuerosurgery ward if you fall down the wrong side of the wave. Bodyboarders can bail quickly and their speed is slower than a surfboard; this explains the present day existence of many a bodyboarder who should have been bashed into oblivion a decade and a half ago but are still plying the viscous uncertainties of The Wedge.

The swell was big but not as big as the El Nino driven storms of the last several months. Most waves broke at about 10 feet with occasional sets of 15. The salt spray is still on my sunglasses as I type these words and I can taste salt on my lips.

There are more beautiful places on earth, but none I saw today, and none that I call home.

Yes


Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:58
Hedgehog (Hang Seng) ID#39857:
http://imsp003.netvigator.com/fina/inde/hsidata.cgi

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:56
robnoel__A (Gianni Dioro/mozel.....this is a long one...just another dot) ID#411112:

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a288836.htm

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:48
downunder__A (OZ down 30.6 -1.1% Taiwan down 2.72%) ID#27341:
GM

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:37
downunder__A (ROR) ID#27341:
Weather is great,come on down, guess who lives on the gold coast

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:36
arby (tolerance) ID#72316:
Tolerant,, Ive had a few but I must ask you this,,,

should'nt you have an IN , infront of your handle?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:35
EJ (BCIWN: so far Asia has been a major selling of gold, dumping) ID#45173:
270 tons ( or million oz, I can't recall ) so far this year, according to one report I read. This selling is likely out of desperation to cover short term obligations. Perhaps once this part of the debt cycle unwinding ends, anyone left at the Asia table holding any liquid assets will buy gold. Asians think highly of gold, especially the Chinese. After 7,000 years of continuous civilization, the historical cultural conciousness is that governments and currencies come and go, but gold is forever.
-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:30
fiveliter (Skylark) ID#341312:
Copyright © 1998 fiveliter/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Skylark-Thanks also from me for that posting about the level of debt in Japan and the implications for the global economy. I'd read it was bad over there but had no idea it was THAT bad. I've thought for a while now as have quite a few others here that one day Japan will trade in their paper for gold and basically knock the world markets on their respective butts. What have they got to lose? They're already in a depression with no way out and their banks are WAY behind the U.S. in Y2K remediation. Why not trade in all that U.S. paper for metal? They already threatened to do that very thing last year and then laughed it off. For the time being, national defense issues keep them from doing it but America's ability to project power overseas may be severely curtailed in about 18 months, according to GAO reports and Rep. Horn's findings. Talk about your paradigm shifts. OUCH! goes Wall St. and the Federal Reserve. But, just when things seem really bad for the Dynamic Duo, in rides billionaire investing legend Warren Buffet on 130 million oz silver horse to save the day! I'm just a patriotic American doing my part explained WB in a joint press conference with Alan Greenspan, who echoed his statements made about gold and the welfare state some 30 years ago. I had to work within the system in order to change it. The time was right to abandon the fiat system of the 20th century though it served us quite well. After all, we sent the rest of the world paper and they sent us useful products like VCR's and automobiles. But the new millenium demands a new standard for economic stability. We're not about to repeat the currency wars of the late 20th century. In other news, sources inside the Federal Government vehemently denied rumours that the Marshall Plan was simply a ruse used to get the defeated countries of WWII to work for decades providing American consumers with luxury goods in exchange for now worthless Federal Reserve Notes. It sort of looks bad now but that wasn't our plan all along, I can assure you of that said a State Dept. spokesman who declined further comment.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:30
Tyler Rose (Foreign Markets) ID#373164:
Does anyone know if the foreign markets ( far east ) are closed June 1, or is the Yahoo server just not functioning tonight? Thanks.

Tyler Rose

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:26
ROR (Aussie Buddies) ID#412286:
What is the Gold Coast like and is its weather, beach and entertainment worth a trip from the US. I have heard it is a great place, however, it is difficult to find a resort further away. Comments from our down under bretheren.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:21
AZAU (EJ, answer ) ID#254274:
Again, quoting CV Meyers, The Coming Deflation, his answer was simple, and although I cannot provide the entire answer, basically,
No Debt
Silver, preferably coins

that's all. Simplified, distilled from the book.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:13
WetGold (chas) ID#187218:
Thank you. You live in a beautiful part of the U.S.

.
.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:12
Prometheus (@Chas) ID#210235:
Thanks for your further information on nukes 'n' earthquakes. Too bad the Japanese stuff on precursers isn't translated. Please, keep us posted if you come across anything else that might shed further light on these.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:11
Hedgehog (the dilemma within a dilemma within a dilemma) ID#39857:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980531/taiwan_sto_1.html

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:10
WetGold (AZAU) ID#187218:
Copyright © 1998 WetGold/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You wrote:

... It had happened with Genghis Khan. It had happened with Babylon. It had happened with Rome. It had happened with France...

All great works are able to provide current language to universal truths.
The late Jacob Bronowski states: ... do not assume that it will go on carried by western civilisation as we know it. We are being weighed in the balance at this moment. If we give up, the next steps will be taken - but not by us. We have not beeb given any guarantee that Assyria and Egypt and Rome were not given. We are awaiting to be somebody's past too, and not necessarily that of our future... , page 437, Ascent of Man, 1st edition - 16th printing.

Thanx for your comments.
..

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:10
Squirrel (JTF - the USG does mint a silver coin which meets your criteria) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It is available - as the Eagle. ( but I got 9999 Maple Leafs instead )
The only sticky sap on the branch is that customers, stores, restaurants, etc. - don't use it. I, for one, will gladly accept it for purchases. A quick peek at my Kitco quotes and I'll accept it instead of a $5 bill {plus change}. Actually I would prefer a Maple Leaf but the Eagle would suffice - though I question a $1 premium for them over MLs or bullion.
Another sticky point with most Kitcoites is the fixed denomination on that 1 ounce bullion coin - Only 1$. Again I wonder if the government has prepared for your goal of fixing the silver price at 1$/oounce.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:07
gagnrad (Ouch! bismuth/silver based superconduction?) ID#43460:
How high temp are they talking about? Surely not room temp? Not to be a doubter, but high temp superconduction nowadays is still in the range of really cold to us mammalian life forms; I'll believe it when I see silver go up! IMHO

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:07
robnoel__A (interesting info on what numismatics have done verse bullion..PS DA BULLS) ID#411112:

http://www.coin-universe.com/financial/

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:06
chas (Wetgold re reading) ID#342315:
Flyn is good. If you like that you should read Major Jordan's Diaries. When you leave Myrtle Beach, why not swing up to the Blue Ridge Parkway. If you do, when you hit Asheville, give me a call. I'm in Morganton, N.C. about 50 mi E on I 40. 704 433 6473. Keep your eyeballs greased. Charlie

Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:06
EJ (AZAU: Thx for the passage. downunder and others have been asking) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
about deflation vs inflation and I think it cuts right to the heart of the matter: which is likely to happen and what are the potential effects on the price of gold? I offer two deflation scenarios.

Deflation Scenario #1:
Unemployment, cash shortage, everything gets cheaper by the day, and most people have less money each day than they had the day before. Who has money to buy gold? No one. Price of gold deflates along with everything else.

Deflation Scenario #2:
Same as above except... Who has money to buy gold? The wealthy who liquidated equities and debt for cash. Price of gold inflates because gold becomes the most favored hard asset for anyone who has money to invest because it does not deflate as fast as other hard assets, that are usually bought with debt ( e.g., property ) , and is less risky than equities and bonds.

Your thoughts?
-EJ




Date: Sun May 31 1998 22:05
BCIWN (CFCM) ID#206298:
Anybody know why CFCM made a big move up on Friday?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:57
BCIWN (Asia and Japan buying gold.) ID#206298:
-
Is there a James Dines of Japan? I would bet there is .
As soon as Japan and the Asian countries decide that they have to stop buying US financial instruments ( stocks and bonds ) and and purchase an asset ( gold or silver ) that doesn't keep strengthening the US dollar, we will see gold turn up and we will see the bottom to the Asian crisis.
When is this going to happen?
I think this has recently has started ( I think it has started because I am usually not the first one to figure these things out. ) . Because the trade deficit of the US is going to widen and hurt US corporate earnings, the stock market will top out adding more fuel to Asian buying. We will see the US stock market moving down with gold and silver stocks moving up. And with the EURO getting ready to try and exist, this will add more fuel. This hasnt happened yet, but it will soon.Any comments are appreciated..

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:55
Gianni Dioro__A (mozel, robnoel, Buffett) ID#384350:
Buffett, the genius that he is, is still an insider. He is a lapdog, and he does more or less what he is told. Buffett doesn't have half the integrity of his confidant, Charlie Munger.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:51
oris (Gianni Dioro) ID#238422:
That is a good point and recommendation #1.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:50
Reify (THAI SALAD) ID#413109:
AURATOR- I believe it was you but not sure, who posted the Thai salad
recipe'. Well I was impressed made it liked it, and emailed it to friends
and family members, only to have forgotten to include it.
Would you be good enough to email me. Thanks.
Reify@sitcom.co.il

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:50
AZAU (WetGold) ID#254274:
Copyright © 1998 AZAU/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Read The Coming Deflation, 1977, CV Meyers. Sounds ancient, but, here is a passage of interest, for example: 'This was not the first time the human race, having become prosperous, had overextended itself and imagined that prosperity was a God-given and eternal right. It had happened with Genghis Khan. It had happened with Babylon. It had happened with Rome. It had happened with France. It had happened with Germany. The result was, without exception, consistently, identically, and unalterably the same-collapse of money as a medium of exchange.
The new era, this latest era....differed from the others in two important respects. Firstly, it was massive-worldwide-and on a scale never before dreamed of....The second difference was the vastly improved means of communication and therefore, of propaganda. As long as the newspapers believed that the process of inflation could continue without disaster, there was a good chance the public would believe it, especially when there never seemed to be any penalty for the accumulation of credit. The magician can make you believe that he has ten rabbits instead of one, as long as you don't demand actual delivery of the rabbits.....Historians in future years will find it hard to believe that supposedly sane adult people could fall for such a crazy scheme. But Humanity moves in waves of fashion....

No need to continue, the point is clear.

This book goes on to talk about inflation, gold, and deflation.
good read.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:48
EJ (Mike Sheller: my guess is the piece was transcribed from a written) ID#45173:
text someplace, but not too carefully. It is excellent. I saved it, too.
-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:46
WetGold (Baby-Boom info) ID#187218:
Copyright © 1998 WetGold/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
In 1997 I had written a paper that utilzed the 1990 U.S. Census and statisically and graphically showed a potential decline ( massive ) starting with the +80M baby-boomers ... I provided a correlation between the Market trends since WWII and the effect on economies and incomes over several periods up to current day. What I held constant was immigration since the numbers were not relavent and wages were trivial ( my assumption based on Germany's immigration levels from Turkey ) . I sent my paper out for review by some experts in various fields in an effort to acquire some additional material for a more rigorous approach ( I am not an expert in this field and look to those 'in-the-know' ) .

Dr. D. Foot, Professor of Economics has this to say adding another spin to it ( rate of GROWTH ) :

... Because births still outnumber deaths in North America and the Canadian and U. S. populations continue to receive many immigrants, it is very unlikely that there will be a population decline in the next couple of decades as is currently happening in a number of European countries ( Italy, for example ) . However, there is a substantial decline in the GROWTH of the population. This is difficult to see in 1990 data because of the echo generation;...

Best wishes,
David K. Foot
Professor of Economics
University of Toronto
.

...

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:41
Gianni Dioro__A (Bully Beef, Nikkei) ID#384350:
The Nikkei would look troublesome under 15,000. It's 95 low is 14,312, below that, panic would likely set in.

spock, Troy McClure, wasn't he related to Lionel Hutz, Attorney at Law?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:40
tolerant1 (WetGold) ID#373284:
You are guarded SIR, when we drop from the trees we do not mean to scare, we are not pretty, TRULY we are well meaning...we are those things the US MARINE CORP want to be...NAMASTE'

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:36
Gianni Dioro__A (Brother Oris, the Drink) ID#384350:
I find when I'm hungover, it's because the quality of the swill I drank last night left more to be desiring. If the drink is quality, there is no hangover.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:31
downunder__A (ABC news-OZ- Banks cutting back exposure to Asia, fears of deepening econmic problems.) ID#27341:
GM

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:25
WetGold (books I'm reading and other stuff ....) ID#187218:
Copyright © 1998 WetGold/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Been doing lotsa research for 2.5 months and my final reports are expected out by Wednesday. Am preparing to take a long hiatus - first Washington - then onto Williamsburg VA and Busch Gardens, down for several nights in Kitty Hawk, touring the Outer Banks of N. Carolina, over Ocracoke, and terminating this leg in Myrtle Beach, S.C. --- following back may lead me through the SkyLine Drive TN --- been there many years ago ( mid-70's ) and remember an old Indian town named Cherokee..... no plans yet BUT .... maybe ....

Started re-reading the following before my trip: Sutton's War on Gold, McGeorge Bundy's, et al On Active Service in Peace and War, Gary Allen's Kissinger - The Secret Side of the Secretary of State, and John Flynn's While You Slept. Gotta' complete them before goin' away so that I can bring along some more. Whenever I go away ( personal or business ) it seems as though I read books I've read many years past BUT I go through the details with more rigour for some reason .... don't know if more analytical or slower moving parts upstairs ....

Would like to hear anyone's comments if familiar with any/all of these ...

.
.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:25
tolerant1 (Mike Sheller ............Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...........................) ID#373284:
tiny men dreamed of growing larger that they might HUG you with SHOT PUT SHOULDERS....NAMASTE'

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:21
HighRise (Asia) ID#401460:

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/asia.html

HighRise

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:17
Bully Beef (The Nikki meltdown is at 14999 isn't it?) ID#260119:
Below 15000 I think it gets really bad. The center cannot hold. Things fall apart. Who knows what...

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:12
Bully Beef (How many ounces of gold will be useless...) ID#260119:
due to radiation if Indier and Pakistanier create two rather large parking lots with Nu-Clear ( Trademark ) bombes? Would this be bullish for Gold? These and other tasteless questions soon to be answered? This old world just gets weirder and weirder all the time.Yes?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:09
Mike Sheller (Skylark - Asian Deflation and gold, 19:46) ID#347447:
Skylark, that post was so nice I copied it and saved i it! If you didn't write it, where did you get it? And most perplexing of all, how in the world can somebody write such a clear, succint, informative piece and spell so many common words wrong. Am I the only one baffled by this? The thoughts of a professional, the spelling of an amateur. I guess there are just some things we weren't meant to know.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:08
EJ (Argent: I should have mentioned my $M pal is 35 yrs old ) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
and did not experience the inflations of the 1970s and other pre-Reagan events. So he thinks in terms of the paper debt-based world running on infinately. He, logically, extrapolates his personal experience, even though he can intellectualize a different scenario. For example, at one point last night we discussed a mutual friend who manages a large distrubutor of specialized computer hardware in Japan. My friend had met with him in Japan two weeks before. He said our mutual friend admitted, quite simply, that Japan is doomed. Many Japanese accept this as their fate. And my friend understands what it means to the US for Japan to tank and sell their US debt. He just has a hard time processing what it means to him personally. Part of him says the debt-world is going to crash and the hard-asset world will rise. This part of him says the silver dollar is worth hundreds of dollars. Maybe some day it will be.
-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:07
Digdeep (HEDGEHOG) ID#267276:
THANKS FOR THE INFO.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:05
Earl () ID#23065:
Cmax @20:34: I wish I'd said that. ..... I second your motion.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 21:04
Hedgehog (Digdeep, I'll try to get more.) ID#39857:
Copyright © 1998 Hedgehog/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
MARKET ----------------------------------------------------
All Ordinaries Share Index 2689.4 dn 26.3
SFE Jun 98 Share Price Index 2679.0 dn 34.0
$A vs $US 0.6235 up 0.0006
$A vs Yen 86.46 dn 0.09
$A vs DEM 1.1122 dn 0.0005
$A vs GBP 0.3824 up 0.0009
$A vs $NZ 1.1668 up 0.0007
Spot gold $US/oz 292.80
SFE Jun 98 Bank Bills 95.10 dn 0.01
SFE Jun 98 3-Year Bonds 95.13 dn 0.01
SFE Jun 98 10-Year Bonds 94.635 dn 0.020
Jan 2001 Treasury Bonds ( yld ) 4.84 dn 0.01
Oct 2002 Treasury Bonds ( yld ) 4.84 unch
Oct 2007 Treasury Bonds ( yld ) 5.37 up 0.03
Nikkei 225 share index 15617 dn 54
ENDS


Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:58
JTF (Thanks -- message received ungarbled - logging off for chores) ID#57232:
Chas: I will think about this.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:58
Digdeep (Asia) ID#267276:
Does anyone know what is going on in asia tonite. Yahoo is not posting the asian market. Thanks

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:57
HighRise (Clinton Yahoo Search) ID#401460:

Looks like things may be moving forward?
http://search.news.yahoo.com/search/news?p=Clinton+&n=10

HighRise

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:52
robnoel__A (TO ALL..heres a new web page,direct links to all conservative talk radio hosts and yes me) ID#411112:
http://www.geocities.com/~justalotoftalk/

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:50
chas (JTF you got one- email) ID#342315:
In major fault moves, prior to quakes, I'm sure the field is horrendous. I am like you, I can't resolve 500h+/- to these fields, but I don't have the equipment to check it. As far as pacemakers go, I have to agree, but I have heard some weird tales about other apparatus- subject to confirmation

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:46
aurator () ID#257148:
Skylark
It's good to know you're still gazing down on us from the æther, excellent post.

Earl I'll second that emotion: Thanks, mo.

Spock
Now, this could be the end of civilisation as many know it, Ginger Spice leaving the Spice Girls? Could this be bad for Beanie Babies?


Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:41
Spock (Barry Goldwater) ID#210114:
Never eat yellow snow.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:39
Spock (Bearish for Gold) ID#210114:
Troy McClure dies. You might remember him from such road safety films as Alice's Journey through the Windshield.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:38
Spock (Bullish for Gold) ID#210114:
Ginger Spice quits Spice Girls

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:37
Spock (EJ: Germany is Fine) ID#210114:
The Germany that Churchill spoke of is long gone. The modern Federal Republic is very little different from any other western democracy.

Churchill also said in an open letter to the Times Should Britain suffer national disaster let us pray to god that he sends us a man with the strength of mind and will of an Adolf Hitler.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:36
oris (HighRise) ID#238422:
Copyright © 1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sorry, did not want to insult the whole country.
This country is great, period. The thing about
moderation was told to me by some good real
American guy Terry, who works as a nurse in Hospice facility.

Moderation in drinking for me is 3-4 shots of
vodka, no other drinks like beer or wine should follow.
With my body weight of 230 pounds I can handle it with
ease...most people will do the same...

In conclusion, the harm caused by alcohol is the result
of lack of drinking education. There are a lot of useful
recommendations, usually given to diplomats only in cause
of their education. What I was talking about is a certain
ignorance of drinking public in this country.

I hope you understood my point. Closing the issue...

Thank you.







Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:34
Cmax (@MOZEL) ID#339320:

Mr. Mozel,
If you ever write book, I want to be your first customer.
At this point, I see it as totally necessary for some interested soul ( who has the free time ) to copy your posts on to the publishing page. If no one does, I think I will hire someone to do it.

You Sir, are are responsible for a rather exciting mind set in far more people than you realize. Thank you for your crystal clear logic and sage observations.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:34
EJ (Skylark: thx for the great post. I'm curious about how old ) ID#45173:
it is and where you got it? You said you did not write it yourself. It references 1997 as the current year, so I'm guessing it first appeared last year. If so, it's predictions of Japan are on target, and the selling of US debt may happen soon, with a resulting sharp increase in interest rates and... inflation. To use Gollum's airplane analogy, the Japanese plane is headed into a stall and will crash land into our airfield. Will the dollar burn?
-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:31
robnoel__A (JTF...tax there is always tax as I said the treasury charges $1.25 over....if you mean point of ) ID#411112:

purchase no....most of the folks I trade with are out of state there is no ( yet ) tax on these transactions if you like check out my web page it was put together by a silver trade with the web master

http://www.gold.globalcenter.net

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:24
Earl () ID#227238:
Copyright © 1998 Earl/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mozel: May I echo the sentiments of the inestimable Studio R in lauding your 18:48. ..... Robnoel added the coup de grace below.

More than that though, you continue to provide a philosophical base for the continued existence of goldbuggery. Many have jabbed ineffectually at the periphery. You have provided avenues to the heart and soul of the enemy. For that I continue to be grateful.

I don't think there has been anyone on this site, or in my aquaintance, who has presented such an undying effort to send a wakeup call to any who would listen. Some will not under any circumstances. Too bad.

There are many who think, long and hard, about what you say, I count myself among them. Please continue to present your thoughts. They mean a great deal and the message is getting out.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:24
JTF (How about E-mail?) ID#57232:
Chas: 500 hz should not interrupt communications, since they are much higher frequency. Now -- if the emanation saturated ferrite cores or other magnetic devices in the transmitters or receivers, that I might believe. But -- even then -- the magnetic field strength would have to be horrendous -- much higher than the earths static magnetic field strength.

Interesting idea.

Wonder if anyone had problems with their pacemaker during the precursor to a quake. Of course, during the quake, heart attacks from the quake effect would be impossible to separate from a pacer problem.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:18
downunder__A (Skylark- THANKS-) ID#27341:
GM

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:17
oris (Larryn) ID#238422:
Copyright © 1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Just my opinion:

China, India, Pakistan may fight each other, but
with use of conventional weaponary. I can not give
you the reason now, but it can be something real
stupid. In regard to use of nukes - no, there are
rules of engagement which all leaders of all countries
follow very carefully... The same rules kept US and USSR
from nuking each other for nearly 40 years...No nukes
unless the fighting country is about to die in a big
way. With US and Russia trying to play a role in world
politics as it is right now, no relatively large country
in the world would be allowed to die due to the battle
injuries. Remember 6 day war of Israel - they were forced
to stop when arabs were about to die...dispite ....you know
the rest.

In regard to Russian experts: Russians will NOT sell or
give up their reserves, dollars or gold. It is absolutely
against their way of thinking. What they can try to do is to
really spooke some major foreign goverments by potential
complications and then get enough money from those goverments
to plug the next hole. It's a smart way of using other
peoples money to solve your problem, and it will work again,
particularly considering that those foreign governments
just have no other way but to give money to Russia. It's like
give us money or die.. Germans are most likely to chicken
out first, and US will follow for sure...Bad peace is better
then good war...and read this now: RUSSIAN RESERVES ARE
FOR WAR, YES? so why sell them...do you follow me?....when
bad peace is GARANTEATED.







Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:17
JTF (Fascinating!) ID#57232:
Robnoel: Do you pay taxes on the silver coin transactions, or just use them as 'cash'?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:15
chas (JTF re quakes) ID#342315:
Copyright © 1998 chas/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
First, your post. What I referred to as a strong wave was reported by Donald about a month ago. Whatever it was it interrupted electronic and other communications. He got this from the press. My guess is that there was an extroadinary rock movement which caused an emf emission that was stronger than usual. When two rock units rub against each other, there is some form of emf emitted. The trouble is these have not, to my knowledge, been catalogued so there is no frame of reference. The best I know is that these emf's are in the range of about 500 hertz. Antony Frazier-Smith is a professor at Stanford who has written a few papers on his observations. Malcolm Johnston is a geophysicist at the USGS Menlo Park facility. They have collaborated to some degree. Johnson has recorded a quake at Palm Springs on both a seismograph and a magnotometer. The mag was suspended above ground and both instruments had split second reults on the quake. What this means is that not only physical results from the earth result, but some emanation from the ground to off ground occurs. This is going to be one hell of a stretch, so maybe I better make it email or another post. Let me know, Charlie

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:15
JTF (Clinton refuses to testify -- wants impeachment proceedings instead) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: I think BC knows he will lose in a court of law on the Monica Lewinsky situation - on a perjury charge. So -- he is taking his chances with impeachment instead.

htxp://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/top_stories/story.html?s=z/reuters/9

80531/news/stories/testimony_1.html

( just splice together, and remove the x, replace with t )

Now -- what if Kenneth Starr has done his homework this time, and there is more than just Monica Lewinsky to talk about? The ChinaMissleSatGate and release of classified encryptation data to John Huang certainly does not help his case.

Do you think BC will petition for asylum while he is in China? At least if he stays there the Chinese nuclear missles will not be pointed at him.


Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:08
robnoel__A (JTF the US has a silver coin $1.00 1oz .9999 pure available from the mint for $1.25 over spot for ) ID#411112:

price you have to buy 10,000 units and pick it up yourself.....I have not had a problem trading them for goods and services at current market $1.50 over spot or $131.00 per roll of twenty

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:06
Earl () ID#227238:
Skylark: An excellent overview of a dominant Kitco thread that travels very far back in time. Now what we need is some idea of when the final denouement begins. To date, those who shovel the sand continue to keep the tide at bay. When will their energy reserves begin to flag and the tide begins to advance?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 20:02
HighRise (Oris) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

One last post on the subject, sorry for the delay.

Oris, my friend, if you are just having fun, I would suggest that you do not show your ignorance of a subject in the process. And there is no need to insult an entire country in your defense. You sir, appear to be the one who lacks culture.

Do you have any idea of how many people have said, “ I can drink, I have no problem, because I drink in moderation.” What is your definition of moderation - 3 beers, a six pack or two, or a few scotch and sodas .

There have been many a pound of Gold lost because of alcohol.

For your information, your side of the conversation, is typical of a person in denial about the problems of alcohol . And, by engaging you in this dialog, I am becoming a co-dependent; therefore, I will drop the subject, for it is obvious from your post, that it will lead to no positive help for you.

Need not respond, I know you have no problem, and that's fine with me. Let the party continue.

HighRise

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:59
EJ (Gollum & JTF: I used to live in Texas, my father was a Texan, and most of) ID#45173:
my living relatives are there, so I know Texans pretty well. What you have there is a Texas tale with the traditional ingredients: exaggered scale and importance, bold actions of a brave secret society in the crushed like a babe in its crib by a callous and nefarious US federal government. I do wonder, tho, where this fiat money scheme is headed and how we'd ever get back to a metal-backed currency and how that might come to pass. It seems so inimical to the current interests of the fed. I liked JTF's idea about the mechanics, seems plausible.
-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:58
Argent (EJ) ID#255217:
-
Thanks for the reply. Well. I debated in my mind whether the guy would be either way too high or way too low. I guess he figured silver dollars were really rare by now and would command enormous premiums. It's an understandable mistake. And the funny thing is, he might have been right had not the US mint turned out such huge quantities of SD's. I figured he'd guess LOW because so many people are brainwashed by the US gummint now into accepting paper, that he'd see the One Dollar on the coin and figure that was all it was worth. I should have given him more credit than that, I suppose. It's incredible how conditioned people have become.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:57
robnoel__A (Mozel...for sanitys sake stop connecting all the dots,people ask me..why don't you trust the ) ID#411112:
government? my responce....I asked the Indians first...

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:46
Skylark (Asian Deflation and Gold) ID#93130:
-
In consideration of the depression that many here seem to have concerning Asian deflation and its affect on gold, I am posting for your consideration the following thought-provoking commentary -lengthy but well-worth the read. I take no credit for the authorship.

To understand the world financial situation is to understand the difference
between reality and illusions of reality.It is to understand that the basis of all
financial failures is the inability to pay debt.Debt is repaid from income or
profits.When income or profits are insufficient to repay debts,default
occurs.Occasionally,new debts are provided to repay old debts,but this will only
increase total debts and future losses.

Since 1990,the world has witnessed a large economic expansion in the U.S.,and
explosive growth in South East Asia and China.Within Japan,short term interest
rates were decreased to .5% and the government initiated the largest fiscal
stimulus program the world has ever seen.Has anyone questioned why the
second largest economy in the world,with all of its major trading partners having
substained growth,with the lowest interest rates the world has ever seen,with the
largest fiscal stimulus package the world has ever seen,has not grown and now
the economy is contracting at an annual rate exceeding 11% ?

To begin to answer this question,one must return to pre-bubble Japan,when the
Nikkei was near 40,000 when land values at Ohtemachi and Toranomon in
central Tokyo would have bought all of Canada or all of California,and when
Tokyo was worth more than the United States.On the basis of these
valuations,trillions of dollars were lent by the Japenese Banks,making them some
of the largest corporations in the world.These loans were not supported by the
income of the borrowers,but by the assets they pledged for security.Today,the
Nikkei is below 16,500 and dropping,and commercial land prices are down 70%
and dropping.The loans are still outstanding,but with borrowers unable to repay
loans from income and realizable asset values far below loan values,these loans
remain on the books as the losses on these loans likely far exceed the banks
capital.
The size of total losses is unknown.However,during November/95,Japan's
finance ministry announced that non recoverable loans at the Osaka based Kizu
credit co-operative were 960 billion yen representing more than 70% of total
loans.A further 230 billion yen were thought to be doubtful leaving less than 10%
of Kizu's loans as performing assets.Does this tell us anything about how the
balance sheets of the large banks really look? The loss of net worth represented
by the collapse of the Japanese stock and real estate markets represents many
trillions of U.S.dollars.At the height of the bubble,Japanese land values were
estimated to be between 16 to 20 trillion U.S. dollars.A 70% decline represents a
$11 to $14 trillion dollar loss in the real estate market alone.When the banks start
selling real estate to repay bank loans,look for the market to drop even
further.Add this to the losses totaling trillions of U.S. dollars on the stock market
and the potential loss exposure of the Japanese banks is staggering.
When the bubble in Japan burst and banks were facing massive loan losses and
negative growth prospects,a new source of revenue had to be found.This led to a
large increase in lending to South East Asia which helped fuel a bubble in these
economies.In addition,exposure to derivatives increased to trillions of dollars.
We have recently seen the bubble burst in South East Asia which will further add
to the loan losses that the banks cannot report as they do not have the capital to
do so.
It is estimated that when the Nikkei dropped below 16,500 many banks capital
fell below the 8% minimun required by Japan's Finance Ministry.This does not
include the losses on loans to the Japanese and South East Asia bubbles that are
real,just not reported.

When the Japanese bubble burst,the Japanese government began a series of
fiscal and monetary stimulation to get the economy restarted.Total government
debt rose to between 87% to 89% of GNP at the end of 1996 and could be as
high as 97% of GNP by the end of 1997.The government budget deficit has
been running over 7% of GNP.Significantly,despite record low interest
rates,interest payments now absorb over 60% of total tax revenue.In
addition,their is Japan's Fiscal Investment and Loan Program,a system that
draws money from public pension and postal-savings systems and lends to 57
government agencies.Total borrowings are about 374 trillion yen,and when
combined with official borrowings could see Japan's debt inflate to 150% of
GNP.

Japan's life-insurance industry reportably holds 25% of the U.S.12 trillion dollars
in household savings.As highlited by the failure of Nissan Mutual Life Insurance
Co.,this industry is also in need of a life line.When Nissan Mutual
collapsed,liabilities exceeded assets to such a degree that the industry's entire 200
billion yen emergency reserve covered only 2/3 of the loss.These company's
have promised returns as much as 5.5% while earning only 2.9% on investments
in 1996.For 1997,with bond interest rates decreasing and the stock market
declining,returns on investment will likely fall below 1996 levels.
According to Standard & Poor's,the level at which hidden profits on stock
holdings disappear are as follows:
Company Nikkei Company Nikkei

Toho Life 19327 Mitsui Life 17167
Kyoei Life 19006 Dai-Ichi Life 14948
Nippon Dantai 18835 Meiji Life 13181
Chiyoda Life 17876 Nippon Life 12894
Sumitomo Life 17485 Taiyo Life 9757

Despite near invisable interest rates and hugh fiscal stimulus programs,the
Japanese economy continues to implode,contracting at a rate exceeding 11% in
the last reported quarter.Problems will only increase with the financial turmoil in
South East Asia where 44% of Japanese exports go.
The question that no one dares ask is what does the Japanese government do?
The economy is imploding,government direct and inderect debt is 150% of
GDP,the government budget deficit is large and unsubstainable,and the banks
and life insurance companies appear to be insolvent and will need substantial
capital infusions to remain viable.The answer is that the Japanese government
cannot repay present loans and that borrowing additional funds to bail out the
banks and insurance company's will only speed the road to bankrupcy.The banks
are large holders of government debt,and while it could be argued that the
government could borrow even more money from the banks and then turn
arround and give this money back to the banks to improve their equity
positions,this simply amounts to transfering debt and does not address the central
issue that neither the banks or the government are financially solvent.In fact we
have the situation where an insolvent government is borrowing from insolvent
banks who in turn rely on the backing on the insolvent government.Loans now
far exceed the capacity of debt repayment,and compounding interest and an
imploding economy will seal their fate.Basically,it is simple mathamatics.How
long will this continue?Like any bankrupt person,until the credit cards are cut
off.It is important to realize that this will take much longer than in a normal
commercial situation.Japanese banks must be willing purchasers of Japanese
government bonds at all times,reguardless of fundamentals.Should a government
default on its debt,the value of its currency which reflects the credit of the
government must approach zero.Currency is simply another unsecured promise
to pay,and currency issued by a bankrupt government will have no
value.Generally speaking,the bank's assets are financial ( currency based ) and
will also fall to zero if the currency collapses.The banking and financial industries
are dependant on a functioning government bond market.It is for this reason that
governments which are insolvent can continue to borrow.For clarity,let me repeat
the initial question.

Since 1990,the world has witnessed a large economic expansion in the U.S.,and
explosive growth in South East Asia and China.Within Japan,short term interest
rates were decreased to .5% and the government initiated the largest fiscal
stimulus program the world has ever seen.Has anyone questioned why the
second largest economy in the world,with all of its major trading partners having
substained growth,with the lowest interest rates the world has ever seen,with the
largest fiscal stimulus package the world has ever seen,has not grown and now
the economy is contracting at an annual rate exceeding 11% ?
These are all conditions which over an extended period of time should produce
explosive growth,expecially in a country like Japan with a hard working,well
educated population with a high level of national savings.The fact that they have
not can only mean that debt levels are so high that they are consuming more than
the country can produce.If unreported bad debts at Japanese banks were only
say $500 billion U.S.,over the last 7 years,the effect of world wide growth, .5%
interest rates, and trillions of U.S. dollars spent on government stimulous
programs would have easily solved the problem.The fact that none of these
measures has solved the problem can only mean that bad debts are much larger
than anyone realizes.Bad debts must total trillions of U.S. dollars.

Over the last several years South East Asia and China have expanded
manufacturing capacity at a furious rate,much of this financed by debt.Over
capacity is driving down prices,with Asia's export prices falling 4% over the last
year.With recent currency depreciations,this trend will likely accelerate.Falling
prices mean falling profit margins which further reduce debt payment
capacity.Over capacity and high debt have now infected Japan's neighbors.In
Korea,company after company has gone bankrupt,threatening the stability of the
banks and possibly the entire country.In 1996,net profit at the 30 largest
chaebols fell 90%.Due to the size of its economy,should the Korean won
continue to fall,it will add to deflationary pressures within China and Japan.The
story is the same in almost all countries within the Pacific Rim.Even China is
affected with bankrupt state company's and insolvent banks,where 25% of bank
loans are non-performing.

Over capacity financed by debt leads to falling prices which leads to the
bankrupcy of first the borrower and then the lender.Problems accelerate when
banks make loans on overpriced real estate or for stock market speculation,as
income from these assets is often only a fraction of debt service
requirements.When the market revalues these assets based on their ability to
generate cash flow,losses are huge.When these events occur in countries where
governments have borrowed far beyond their capacity to repay,then bond
markets and the value of the currency are destroyed.

In China,consumer price inflation is virtually zero,down from 24% three years
ago.Japan,Indonesia and Vietnam are similar .Asset values,from real estate to
stock markets are in a major deflation.

In the United States,during the last 3 to 4 years,foreigners have purchased over 2
trillion U.S.dollars in debt and shares.These funds have driven up the value of
the U.S. dollar in spite of a large current account deficit.They have kept down
the level of interest rates,driven the level of the stock exchange to new highs,and
propelled the economy to strong growth.Price deflation in Asia and a strong
U.S.dollar have kept inflation at a very low level.It has been the best of times for
America.Some even call it a paradigm shift.

In equity markets, continual upward revisions of longer term corporate earnings
expectations have driven price-earnings ratios to levels not often observed at this
stage of economic expansion

It is difficult to believe that our much higher than expected income tax receipts
are unrelated to the huge increase in capital gains which, since 1995 have totalled
the equivalent of one-third of national income

Today's Central Bankers have the capacity of creating or destroying unlimited
supplies of money and credit.

Clearly,how well we take our responsibilities in this modern world has profound
implications for participants in financial markets.

These are all quotes from Mr.Greenspan,head of the U.S. Federal Reserve.Mr.
Greenspan cannot tell us that Asia is insolvent and will collapse.He is giving us a
warning that we must heed.Price deflation and a collapsing economy in Asia will
decrease U.S. corporate profits.Lower profits and a lower price to earnings
multiple will significantly reduce the level of the U.S. stock markets.
The U.S. budget deficit has decreased because of capital gains taxes.When
people report capital losses,the budjet deficit will balloon.
When Asia collapses,money and credit will be destroyed.Japanese banks and
insurance company's will be forced to sell U.S. assets to help finance losses in
Aisa.So will the Chinese.For years,China and Japan have exchanged their goods
for U.S. paper.When Japan's economy collapses,they will convert this paper for
tangible assets.

The U.S. is the largest debtor in the world,much of it owned by foreigners.They
have the largest current account deficit in the world.These factors have caused
major financial problems for every country where they have existed.
When the Japanese are forced to sell U.S. Treasurey debt,it will cause a panick
out of treasury's which will sharply increase U.S. interest rates.In addition to
other factors already mentioned,higher interest rates will accelerate falling U.S.
corporate profits,will accelerate the drop in the U.S. stock market and will
accelerate a move to a much higher U.S. government budget deficit.
When foreginers sell treasury's,Americans must buy them,which will take money
out of other economic activities.Future government budget deficits will have to
be financed by Americans,and Americans may find that they may not be able to
run large current account deficits.When Americas banker goes broke,we may see
another paradigm shift.

The problems of large debt levels in a deflating economy are very real.Deflation
reduces both income and asset values,which leads to the bankrupcy of both
borrowers and lenders.Japan has been deflating for the last 7 years.With the rest
of Asia also deflating,deflation in Japan can only continue.

Japanese households have about U.S.$12 trillion in savings.The banks have
gambled these funds on real estate and stock market speculation,and over-built
manufacturing capacity.The government has spent it attempting to kick start the
economy.Some day,everyone will realize that the real value of the assets backing
these savings is only a small fraction of this U.S.$12 trillion dollars.Already,some
of this money has moved to safer destinations like the United States.While the
U.S. financial position is much better than Japan's,fundamentals are still very
poor and will deteriorate rapidly when Japanese banks and insurance companys
are forced to sell U.S. assets.
When the Japanese panick in an attempt to preserve their wealth,their only
choice will be an asset that is not someone's liability.The asset that best describes
this property is gold.

In 1997,the world wide demand for gold will be the highest in human history,and
will far exceed mine production.Yet the price of gold has fallen to 12 year lows.
As the world watches the first tremors to the world wide financial
default,speculators are adding to huge short positions.Experts in the financial
markets will tell you that gold has lost its monetary value and their is the
continual threat of Central Bank selling.Central bankers in Austraila and
Switzerland claim that gold is no longer a suitable investment.Austraila's actions
appear totally unreasonable.Gold is a major employer and export earner for
Austraila.Even if it were true,why would you tell the world that it has little
value?The funds obtained from the gold sale have now been lent to Thailand and
Indosneia?Are loans to bail out bankrupt countries a more suitable investment
than gold?Even the Swiss announcement appears to be more geared to lowering
the price of gold than maximizing the price of an asset you may wish to sell.Gold
has nothing to do with the trillions of dollars in bank loans outstanding that are
not supported by either the income or assets of the borrower.It has nothing to do
with the trillions of dollars in government bonds that are supported by no assets
and which interest costs now take up large amounts of government tax
recipts.The only thing holding world wide financial markets together is
confidence.Confidence that governments and bankers will not let things get out
of hand.Confidence that requires the price of gold to remain low.

Yet all of the confidence one can have does not change the fact that the direct
and inderect liabilities of the Japanese government total about 150% of GNP,it
does not change the fact that liabilities at Japanese banks and insurance
company's likely exceed realizable assets by trilions of U.S. dollars ,it does not
change the fact that the Japanese economy is contracting,and does not change
the fact that Japan and Asia are deflating at an accelerating rate.Some may say
these problems are managable.I would only ask,How? In the end,finance
comes down to simple mathamatics,nothing more nothing less.

A little over 300 billion U.S. dollars buys every once of gold in every central
bank in the world.When Japan crashes,none of this will be for sale.Gold miners
have sold forward about two years production and speculators hold large short
positions.How high does the price go when the U.S. $12 trillion in household
savings starts chasing an asset their is so little of?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:44
downunder__A (NEWS-coming to you soon- THE DERIVATIVE for the DERIVATIVE -) ID#27341:
Take out an OPTION on the possible DEFAULT of your favourite DERIVATIVE, its GUARANTEED! BUY NOW! before its to late.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:40
mozel (@Studio) ID#153102:
Thanks, friend. BBL

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:34
robnoel__A (Squirrel,all these bills are dead there is a reason for that,no support, the flaw in your and many ) ID#411112:
Copyright © 1998 robnoel__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
others thinking,confiscation will not and could not take place today 1 ) unlike the 30's less than 25% of Americans trust thier government to do the right thing 2 ) confiscation was to stop the flight of capital out of banks they all had just failed...this time round when the banks fail the small ones die the big ones are now to big to fail,the Fed will print as much as they need.....greenspan already has said this in referance to the Y2K problem 3 ) take my gun or take my gold its the same thing from my cold dead clutched fists......the only bills that count are the ones that pass all others are trash

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:31
EJ (Argent & oris) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Argent, I was hoping you'd guess but the answer is, Hundreds of dollars. No kidding. His wife, who is the daughter of the 4th richest dude in Hong Kong, knew better. She's a financial advisor, and had some interesting tales to tell about frightened clients calling her with Y2K questions, but that's a different story. She guessed the silver dollar was worth about $50. They were puzzled when I told them they could buy it for about $7 in quantity, and then I gave it to them. She asked how much gold was. I told her $293 spot on Friday. Her jaw dropped. I thought they were going to jump up from the table and go buy some of both metals, but we had another three pints of Tremont Ale instead, thus the hangover.

oris, I figure gold will hang around $300, give or take $10, in June.
-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:19
mozel (@Squirrel) ID#153102:
When Gold is $50 per oz BIS is bankrupt. It's all about the War on Gold.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:18
STUDIO.R (@mozel........CRACK!.............) ID#288369:
Your 18:48........the flying of the ball is the abrupt result of violently meeting with the meat of your swinging bat. Nice hit, friend.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:15
Silverbaron (chas @ Penoles) ID#288295:
Yes, Met-Mex Penoles is part of the same company, called Industrias Penoles SA CV - here is their web site: http://www.penoles.com.mx/ingles/ingles.html

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:14
Squirrel (Double Eagles - beautiful pictures at) ID#287186:
http://www.si.edu/organiza/museums/nmah/csr/nnc/doubleea/doubleea.htm

and for other coins check out the National Numismatic Collection ( NNC ) of the Smithsonian Institution at
http://www.si.edu/organiza/museums/nmah/csr/cadnnc.htm

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:11
mozel (@robnoel) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Interesting story on the Hunts. There are three sets of rules in federal court. The federal rules of civil procedure, the federal rules of criminal procedure, and the federal rules of political procedure. These latter are not published and the defendant is guaranteed to lose.

One wonders what Buffet really has in mind. His father understood honest money and the law.

The Conventions and Treaties which the federal government has entered into will bring gloom and doom on you when you fully understand their portent. Most of the landmass of the United States was involved in the Heritage Rivers Executive Order.

And the coming Emergency is going to accelerate the pace.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:11
JTF (Hunt brothers to the rescue in 1978-9? Thoughts on silver coins.) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
gollum: Interesting story. I find it hard to believe, given what the Hunt Brothers were doing. If they had John Connally with them, they should have focused on Texas politics, and launched a silver coin. Would have caused considerable commotion -- probably as much as trying to corner the silver market.

I have an idea. We have gold coins in use as 'money' even if it is not officially condoned by the US Government.

Why doesn't the government mint a silver bullion coin that can be used as money? Every day its price could be officially determined in US dollars -- with computers this is a trivial matter. Then Gresham's law would not apply, as the coin would be worth the spot silver bullion price, and hence there would be less incentive to hoard it. Restaurants and other places of business could decide whether or not they wished to use the coin -- sort of like what happens with credit cards right now.

Of course, this idea would be disturbing to the US government, as the value of the silver coin would fluctuate considerably. But -- so does the US dollar, doesn't it? But -- only for the international market. We locals do not have the luxury of being able to use dollars at the 'spot' price. Perhaps minting a silver coin might give the US an incentive to 'fix' the price of silver again -- what heresy! Of course, using silver coins is like using cash -- and the US government wants to get rid of the cash if they could. Harder to follow transactions.

We can buy and sell foreign currencies at the 'spot' price, so why not silver coins?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:08
Silverbaron (Squirrel re: hr 3752) ID#288295:
If you pan enough of this material from the fringe, once in a while you turn up some gold. ( Every little bit helps, eh? )

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:05
Squirrel (oops - make that 19th century) ID#287186:
not 17th. I was backwards as usual.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:05
chas (Silverbaron re BI and Penoles) ID#342315:
Thanx a lot. I have the BI institute, but I'll have to do some digging on Penoles. Be back to you later, Charlie

Date: Sun May 31 1998 19:04
larryn__A (gold funds) ID#316232:
Copyright © 1998 larryn__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
For Kitcoists interested in gold funds, Eaglewing Research has updated the page for last week.

These were the 10 worst gold funds in a truly lousy week.

............................. %chg ,, nav

FDPMX Fidelity Sel Prec Mtls -7.3 10.19

PIGDX Pioneer Gold A . -7.6 4.72

PPMCX PIMCO Adv Prc Mtls C . -7.6 5.68

RYPMX Rydex Prec Metals . -7.7 5.26

GOLDX Gabelli Gold . -7.9 6.31

INIVX Van Eck Intl Inv GoldA -8.1 7.52

BGEIX Amer Cent Global Gold. -8.1 6.43

EKWBX Evergreen Prec Mtls B. -8.4 13.09

STIVX Lexington Strat Invest -8.6 1.27

USERX US Global Gold Shrs . -10.0 0.45

http://www.eaglewing.com/compare.htm


Date: Sun May 31 1998 18:59
Squirrel (Is the USG trying to establish a defacto standard?) ID#287186:
That Gold is only worth $50 per ozt.
And Silver is only worth $1 per ozt.
as per the denominations of the Eagles.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 18:56
larryn__A (China, India, Pakistan nukes.) ID#316232:
Can anyone give me any good reason other than national macho why China would want to fight India? I realize there is a small area near Kashmir which is claimed by these two plus Pakistan, but nuclear war? I cannot imagine any of the national leaders being so stupid. I understand the need for politicians to strut awhile, and expect this problem to go away.

This means that an accidental nuke would probably kick gold up big time. New paradign, etc.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 18:50
Squirrel (One of these days I'm going to figure out how to consistently post URL) ID#287186:
The Buffalo Nickel URL works if you copy paste from the http to the last @L

Date: Sun May 31 1998 18:49
larryn__A (Russia) ID#316232:
There were two 'experts' on TV friday talking about the Russia problem after the market fell 10% one day and up the next.

One said that it was temporary and Russia would let interest rates go high enough to rescue the ruble. IMF to the rescue, etc.

Second said that they only had $14b in reserves, including 4b in bullion, and it would be gone quickly. Then, collapse.

Take your pick of two experts, but if it gets bad enough to sell the 4b, I would expect gold to drop.


Date: Sun May 31 1998 18:48
Silverbaron (chas @ Bismuth) ID#288295:
Mexico is the world leading producer of bismuth, and here is a link for the Bismuth Institute. Maybe this could be interesting - the only Mexican producer listed as a sponsor of the Bismuth Institute is Met-Mex Penoles SA CV. Could this be the same Penoles that is ( I think ) the world largest silver producer? Hmmmmmm. http://www.Bismuth.be

Date: Sun May 31 1998 18:48
mozel (@CompuGeek) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It is difficult to conceive of being free and owning things if you have always been in bondage and merely the USer of things by permission. That's why these concepts are alien to Europeans.

One thing you will find is that you cannot trust law dictionairies of recent vintage. They are tuned to the viewpoint of the attorneys who practice corporate and artificial person law exclusively now.

Currency is cash. There is no contingent or future promise in it. It is its own promise intrinsic to itself and fulfilled in the present. Cash then pays the debt on the spot. So, what we call cash and currency are not so since they are Notes or Promises to Pay. All you can do with what we call cash is discharge an obligation on the spot. But, debt can never be paid with debt and a Note is a debt.

Theory of money does not interest me. I feel that subject is academic. Honest money does interest me. Honest money at common-law is gold and silver coin. It pays debt. The transaction by it is substance for substance. And gold and silver coin fulfill all of the functions of money honestly: by measure and fineness a trustworthy unit of account that does not deteriorate with time; what you deposit will equal what you withdraw regardless of time passed 2. a medium for exchange 3. a store of value of intrinsic worth from rarity and not susceptible to manufacture

By the standard of common-law, federal reserve notes are counterfeit money.

The Indians had their sayings about land ownership. They also whupped up on any untribed Indian who got into their territory. Thwack was the sound made when an Indian claim of title was filed, I think.

The condition of slavery from not having absolute rights of property over the compensation for your labor ( federal reserve notes ) and the feudal condition of not having absolute, allodial title to land and hence having to pay a perpetual feu ( tax ) to live on the land are related. Both are the result of the Demoncratic Socialist Revolution of FDR.

Both can still be fought in the law by those who want to be free. But, you cannot have your cake and eat it, too. You cannot be dependant and independant at the same time. The law will see through your fraud.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 18:45
Squirrel (United States Buffalo Nickel Act of 1997 S.1112) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
This bill is apparently still in committee
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d105:SN01112:@@@L >http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d105:SN01112:@@@L 
The Summary reads:
United States Buffalo Nickel Act of 1997 - Directs the Secretary of the Treasury to mint and issue five-cent coins based on the original five-cent coin designed by James Earle Fraser and minted from 1913 to 1938.
Mandates that: ( 1 ) each coin have a profile representation of a Native American on the obverse side, and a representation of a buffalo on the reverse side; ( 2 ) coin design shall be selected by the Secretary after consultation with specified congressional committees and reviewed by the Citizens Commemorative Coin Advisory Committee; and ( 3 ) a one-dollar sales surcharge shall be imposed per coin and distributed to the National Museum of the American Indian to commemorate its tenth anniversary and to supplement its endowment and educational outreach funds.

( a ) DENOMINATIONS- Notwithstanding any other provision of law, during the 3-year period beginning on January 1, 2000, the Secretary of the Treasury ( hereafter in this Act referred to as the `Secretary' ) shall mint and issue each year not more than 1,000,000 5-cent coins, which shall--
( 1 ) weigh 5 grams;
( 2 ) have a diameter of 0.835 inch; and
( 3 ) contain an alloy of 90 percent silver and 10 percent copper.
( b ) LEGAL TENDER- The coins minted under this Act shall be legal tender, as provided in section 5103 of title 31, United States Code.
( c ) NUMISMATIC ITEMS- For purposes of section 5134 of title 31, United States Code, all coins minted under this Act shall be considered to be numismatic items.
SEC. 4. DESIGN OF COINS.
( a ) DESIGN REQUIREMENTS-
( 1 ) IN GENERAL- The design of the coins minted under this Act shall be based on the original 5-cent coin designed by James Earle Fraser and minted from 1913 to 1938. Each coin shall have on the obverse side a profile representation of a Native American, and on the reverse side a representation of a buffalo.
( a ) QUALITY OF COINS- Coins minted under this Act shall be issued in uncirculated and proof qualities.
( a ) SALE PRICE- The coins issued under this Act shall be sold by the Secretary at a price equal to the sum of--
( 1 ) the face value of the coins;
( 2 ) the surcharge provided in subsection ( d ) with respect to such coins; and
( 3 ) the cost of designing and issuing the coins ( including labor, materials, dies, use of machinery, overhead expenses, marketing, and shipping ) .

Date: Sun May 31 1998 18:41
JTF (Error -- don't know what I was reading!) ID#57232:
My 5/30/98 Russia post is from the Washington Post, not The Economist.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 18:39
JTF (Russia Crisis as seen by The Economist) ID#57232:
All: Economic trouble in Russia gets more US/European attention than Indonesia or South Korea.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-05/30/069l-053098-idx.html

Date: Sun May 31 1998 18:34
chas (Silverbaron re BI) ID#342315:
If you can find the mine with BI potential ( other than Caledonia ) , let me know. Thanx, charlie

Date: Sun May 31 1998 18:27
Squirrel (Silverbarron - H.R. 3752 looks OK - too bad it failed to pass - so far.) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It is an effort to prevent the UN from usurping US property under the auspices of World Heritage or Biosphere Sites. Maybe the sponsors of this bill need a kick in the butt to get it moving again.

To get to the Bill directly splice the following url together

http://
rs9.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/D?d104:8:./temp/~bdRFLd:@@@L|/bss/d104query.html|

or here is a stab at the whole thing in one string
http://rs9.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/D?d104:8:./temp/~bdRFLd:@@@L>http://rs9.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/D?d104:8:./temp/~bdRFLd:@@@L|/bss/d104query.html|

Date: Sun May 31 1998 18:22
Gollum (@EJ) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Here's something I came across that might interest you:

I recently heard an interesting tape of a talk show called Texas Overnight,
which in part was an interview of a gentleman by the name of Richard Keininger.
The conversation focused on what factors contribute to the making of a great
civilization. One factor of interest was the requirment for a stable monetary
system that did not devalue over time. ( i.e. incentive for people to work hard
and save ) .

In this regard, Mr. Keininger pointed out that fiat money is being
used by the Federal Reserve system. The point as I understood it being there is
no legal obligation to establish and maintain a par value for the dollar against
silver or gold or anything else. Additionally, money is created as debt with
interest making it mathematically impossible to pay back both principle and
interest without going further into debt.

He continued that certain people where concerned as our present monetary system
would eventually lead to the destruction of the U.S. To this end, some Texans
decided to try and save at least part of it. So they set out to create their own
currency. According to Keininger, the Hunt brothers were involved and the object
was to corner the market on silver ( around 1979? ) to create a Texas type dollar
backed by silver. According to the talk show, former Texas govenor John Connelly
was also involved as well as an Englishman, Jonathan Mays ( spell? ) who had
worked out a system to spread this new currency thoughout the U.S. and
eventually exceed the value of the U.S. dollar. Once it became obvious what the
Hunt brothers were doing the Fed and banking community came down hard on them
( I assume it was not legal ) and reduced the power of the Hunts and broke
( whatever that means ) Connelly. To this day Jonathan Mays is in jail or so the
talk show indicated.

I know this is an incredible story and I also know that sometimes the truth is
stranger than fiction.

Did anyone ever hear a similar story or details along these lines. I'd be
curious to know.

Thanks,

Ed

Date: Sun May 31 1998 18:16
oris (EJ) ID#238422:
You are right. Let's talk silver and gold....

So, what is your forecast for POG in June?






Date: Sun May 31 1998 18:13
NJ (Maureen Dowd) ID#20748:
Copyright © 1998 NJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
NY Times disallowed the url, so here is good old copy and paste.


ASHINGTON -- Poor little Monica.

On top of all the other indignities she has suffered during her career as White House gofer and scandal babe, she had to spend hours on Thursday at the F.B.I.
field office in Los Angeles. She had to write down in longhand whatever came into her head. The 24-year-old must have felt like Bart Simpson, forced by Schoolmaster
Starr to stay after class and copy out the same sentence a hundred times on the blackboard.

The prosecutor needed a handwriting sample. Or he pretended to need a handwriting sample, so he could scare the poor girl into thinking he is about to indict her unless she
starts spilling the cat out of the beans, as Carmen Miranda used to say. He no doubt wants her penmanship to compare it to the lovey-dovey stuff Monica was messengering
the President from the Pentagon.

You'll never believe this, but a copy of Monica's scribbles has fallen into my hot little hands. Her stream-of-consciousness ramblings are on F.B.I. letterhead -- in a girlish
scrawl, with loopy letters, little hearts and breathless punctuation. Here's what she wrote:

Monica Clinton. Monica Lewinsky Clinton. Monica Lewinsky Rodham Clinton. Mrs. Big Creep. ( Frowny face. ) First Lady Monica. ( Smiley face. ) Menu for MY Italian
State Dinner: Spaghetti Carbonara. Tiramisu. Spumoni. Table placement: Me between Leonardo DiCaprio & John Travolta. Also, cannoli.

I HATE Linda Tripp! She calls that a makeover? What a ghoul!!

Dear Johnnie Cochran: Can you please, please, please come be my lawyer now? There was no dress, need not confess!! Or, if the dress doesn't fit -- never mind, I hate
that subject.

I am so totally sick of Ginsburg! Even Dershowitz would be better.

I can't believe Ginsburg made that crack about how Starr had only succeeded in proving that there had been an affair between consenting adults. HELLOOO! You're MY
lawyer, lame-o! You're not supposed to call me a BIMBO and a PERJURER! I wish Daddy would put a stop on the check. Ginsburg's so afraid that Barbara Walters will
lose interest in him, he'll say anything. And he keeps dragging me out to dinner so the photographers can take our picture. Steak! Steak! Steak! Creamed spinach! Cottage
fries! Onion ring loaf! Doesn't he know any places with spa cuisine? If I do have to go to trial, Mom says we'll cloister ourselves at Canyon Ranch first. ( Is prison like a
spa without seltzer? )

Ken Starr, if you are reading this, you are an extremely twisted individual who needs help. You can't possibly understand what Bill and I had together. It was so poetic!!!
Bill + Monica. [The i's dotted with hearts.] Usually I go for older men, but you are a dirty old man. I can't believe you're trying to subpoena my sales slip for Vox.
Why are you so interested in phone sex? Anyway, I didn't even finish that book. It's sooooo long.

That's probably why you want to talk to Secret Service agents -- just to hear a bunch of kinky stories.

I'm starting to get scared about prison. I didn't find the last scene of Seinfeld at all funny.

I don't want to be buried alive like Susan McDougal. Her ankle bracelets are sort of sexy, but I look terrible in orange!! I really loved Bill, but no way I'm going to be stuck
in a 7-by-12-foot cell for years just to save his neck. Not after he called me THAT woman. ( Frowny face. ) He used to be such a cutie. Now he's such a meanie. Look at
what he's doing to poor Betty, trying to pin the blame on her for his fun.

Then again, Graydon Carter thinks prison would be a good career move for me. He said he'd get Helmut Newton to do a spread for Vanity Fair, with me writhing in a
striped jumpsuit next to bare concrete walls. When I got out, I'd be like G. Gordon Liddy.

I'm glad Bruce & Sidney lost their executive privileges.

I'll finally get to hear what the Big Creep's been saying about me. Maybe I'll even find out why he hasn't called me for so long.

My lawyers made me come in the front door of the F.B.I. office today instead of the back door, so I'd get mauled by the paparazzi and look vulnerable.

I do feel like an orphan in the storm. No, a pawn in a chess game. No, a candle in the wind. Will I ever get another date Who will want to marry me now? Who will
help me get a big job in New York even though I can't type and have no experience except delivering pizza and mail to the President

I'm not having any fun at all. ( Frowny face. )   

Date: Sun May 31 1998 18:09
NJ (Maureen Dowd) ID#20748:
Go gold.

http://search.nytimes.com/search/daily/bin/fastweb?getdoc+site+iib-site+148+0+wAAA+maureen%7Edowd

Date: Sun May 31 1998 18:08
Squirrel (Silverbaron, Mr. Mick, Robnoel. re my post of Sun May 31 1998 01:45) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The government giveth and the government taketh away.

Thank you Silverbaron for the reference for the entire text of the IRA legislation at:
http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/26/408.shtml

If I read this correctly, collectibles are not permitted to be part of an IRA and purchases of them with IRA funds are regarded as a disbursement. This Senate Bill would allow purchases of coins or bullion to remain part of an IRA. This is a BOON TO US who want IRAs to include physical bullion & coins rather than fiat paper, stocks, etc.

BUT - on the other hand - if we had assumed our Gold coins were exempt from confiscation because they were “collectibles”. This Bill would remove the “collectible” defense from a 17th century double eagle and make it as confiscatible as bullion.

Robnoel - I believe junk silver and Morgan silver dollars under the S.197 would be not be treated as “collectibles because, even though they do not meet the bullion definition in ( B ) they do meet the definition in “ ( A ) any coin certified by a recognized grading service and traded on a nationally recognized electronic network, or listed by a recognized wholesale reporting service, and-- ` ( i ) which is or was at any time legal tender in the country of issuance”.

Silverbaron: thanks for the heads up on HR 3752. With 3977 bills, did you dig through the previous 3751 to find this one. Kudos to you if you did!

Date: Sun May 31 1998 18:04
JTF (Whither markets?) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
sharefin: Are you still up? Anything from Oldman? My guess is that the retirement account baby boomer crowd is holding back a bit, and building up confidence for another bullish move in the markets. We might have a correction now -- but no crash -- with new highs coming later. The crash will probably not come this year. As Oldman said, it will take months for the market behavior to convince the boomers to let go on the never-ending bull.

Of course, some rally bad international news might trash the US markets anytime. All that is needed is a blockage of a major oil route somewhere -- middle east, or possibly SEAsia ( Indonesia ) .

Loved your y2k post. I should have known why the government is not going to finish the job -- they make too many rules, so the private computer companies refuse the risk of doing the programming. Most private US companies will be well prepared.


Date: Sun May 31 1998 17:59
Argent (EJ --- How much?) ID#255217:
I'm DYING to know how much the millionaire thought the silver dollar was worth. Let me guess. $1.00 ? Your post piqued my curiosity.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 17:48
Silverbaron (kiwi @ Ag/Bi superconductors) ID#288295:

Hmmmmmmmmmm - who was it that had a bismuth mine - Caledonia Mining

Date: Sun May 31 1998 17:44
JTF (Silver Lining! Just what the Doctor (superconductor physicist/engineer) ordered!) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
kiwi: This looks really promising! I think the silver is necessary as a highly conductive interface to the high-temp superconductor. I am a little rusty on superconductor technology, but I think one needs a non-superconducting buffer zone ( silver ) just in case something happens and you exceed the the critical current density, and your superconductor flips out of superconducting mode. Could be disastrous without the backup conductor ( silver ) . I would guess that all the military applications would operate very close to critical current density levels.

On the other hand, significantly increased demand for silver may not come for years. It will begin with a few military prototypes ( Nautilus version ) . I'm not so sure the 50% power plant weight reduction in a Naval ship is that much of a benefit, given the increased vulnerability of such a power plant. How does one repair one of these? Do you carry a spare? How does an operating motor react to a direct missle hit? Might be alot of fireworks.

The mention of homopolar motors is also of interest. This is not a typical electric motor. I need to read up on this -- I think this is a very low voltage, high current device. I think M. Faraday invented it. Remember Red October?


Date: Sun May 31 1998 17:37
STUDIO.R (@A Masters Degree in Goldology...........) ID#288369:
I wanted to go to yale or the universidad de san diego and study gold...but I didn't have enough gold to gain admittance. Mediocrity is now my habitat.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 17:33
Silverbaron (mozel) ID#288295:
I just stumbled upon a U.S. House Bill entitled The American Land Sovreignty Protection Act, H.R. 3752 ( 104th Congress ) To get to this, use the following link and select 104th Congress, then do a search on the bill number ( h.r. 3752 ) . If you don't already know about this bill, you may find it ( and the accompanying discussions ) most interesting. http://thomas.loc.gov

Date: Sun May 31 1998 17:32
EJ (oris: Pls lighten up. You can call alchohol anything you want. ) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Call it a milkshake, for all I care. I'm not your mama. I can't even remember how we got on this stupid topic. How about we talk about something more topical. Like... silver and gold!

I had an interesting evening last night. Hung out with a friend who runs a $80M high tech company. He's worth several millions on paper, he's got all this land on an island off the East Coast of the US, lots of debt, no cash. I showed him a 1921 Morgan Silver dollar I carry around, a very common coin in maybe XF condition if I was selling it, F if I was buying ; ) I wound up giving to his wife as a gift.

How much do you think this paper millionaire buddy thought it was worth?
-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 17:27
kiwi (Superconductors with a silver lining!.....HUGE!) ID#194311:
this technology is very, very, important should it be proven ( likely given that guys are serious..military ) , Note the specs. required at the site below...they are talking about power cabling ( kilometres ) , motors, generators...this will do for silver what electricity and telephony did for copper...take it out of the attic.

Read on...

http://www.ncemt.ctc.com/thrustAreas/forming/hts/in_main.html

Date: Sun May 31 1998 17:24
EJ (John Disney: Yah, too bad I ran out of the stuff) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Guess I'll just have to keep guzzling this Vodka oris sent me with the instructions on how to drink it without getting a hangover. Let's see, it says: Drink no more than one shot between posts. If you cannot feel the keyboard or see the screen, you have had too much and you may begin writing posts like mozel's. Oh no!

On the topic of lethality, I don't got no puny, pathetic, inutile little pee shooter in the top drawer. Nope. Not me! GUNS are for PUSSIES! I keep a couple of NUKES in the basement 'cause YOU CAN'T BE TOO SURE WHEN A HOARD OF F*CKING CRAZY FEDERAL GU'MENT BASTARDS IS GONNA COME OVER AND TRY TO ROB YOU OF YER CIVIL RIGHTS!!! WHAAAAAAAAAAHOOOOOOOOO!
-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 17:19
JTF (Earthquakes) ID#57232:
Chas,Donald: What is strongwave emission? Do you mean the consequence of an earthquake, with transverse and longitudinal sound waves? Or a precursor of some kind? All I know about in relation to earthquake triggering is gravitational tidal effects. Otherwise, the quakes appear to be randomly triggered when techtonically-generated stress levels exceed a threshold of some kind.

Now, there may be sort of elf ( ultra low frequency ) electromagnetic emission just before the quake, but I know little about that.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 17:15
oris (EJ) ID#238422:
EJ, I can not get it. You informed me that your father
had a problem with it, that you had a hangover, and that
I'm a proffesional... Where is a logic? in saying I may
have a problem? USUALLY PROS ARE PEOPLE WHO DO NOT HAVE
PROBLEMS, THAT IS WHY THEY ARE PROS. Please reconsider...

Date: Sun May 31 1998 17:13
STUDIO.R (@CompGeek......) ID#288369:
Very good. The American Indian was right about the Land....except it is presently owned by the bastard-in-blue with the gattlin' gun.

Keep your head down, and forever hold your thoughts high. studio.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 17:12
EJ (Ron: modern day Nazis ) ID#45173:
I liked two Germanies. Four or eight would be even better, but one Germany really worries me. As Churchil said of Germany, ..too big for Europe, to small for the world.
-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 17:12
mozel (@Studio @chas ) ID#153102:
Studio It is a true saying that no man can serve two masters.
also, Free; not holden of any lord or superior...; the opposite of feudal p 70 Black's Law 5th Ed

chas If you can't get it from the source I showed, let me know. If you are paying property tax, you don't have allodial title. Fee simple is just another merchantable title, a color of title, I fear.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 17:03
EJ (oris: doth protest too much) ID#45173:
See below:
Sun May 31 1998 15:25
HighRise ( oris ) ID#401460

Your passionate defense of alchohol as not a drug and your professional competency with its use, as distinguished from my novice blundering, suggests you may have a problem with alchohol. My father did, so I try to keep an eye on my intake. That said, I'm intaking right now a Pete's Wicked Ale. Gulp. Ahhhhh! Perfection on a hot day after sweating gallons in the yard.
-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 17:00
TYoung (Brother oris) ID#17796:
Prayer...may I one day be blessed with the opportunity to be politically incorrect at the range and then share the fine spirits. Life is meant to be lived. Excess and moderation can only be known by experience.

Tom bbml

Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:59
CompGeek (@Mozel) ID#343259:
Copyright © 1998 CompGeek/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Hello again.

I've been re-reading as you suggested, and I quite agree we are in the condition of slavery. I shall leave the safety of my accounting-model-double-entry idea, and wander with you into the deep end of the pool. ( I hope you do not drown me :- ) )

Alberich suggested the discussion was too ivory-tower. I'd like to pose a few questions if I may to put the discussion more on terra firma ( I'm sure you like this basis :- ) ) .

1 ) What is the difference between currency and money?

2 ) Money per your definition has 3 attributes:

1-Medium of exchange

2-Unit of Account

3-Store of Value

You further assert that capital must have substance, ie land, gold etc, and make a convincing argument for gold as money. ( no question here, just a repostulation. )

3 ) Golem makes clear statement about use vs ownership

4 ) DaveW offers that US money is backed by US Assets

5 ) Mozel points out that there is NO BACKING of USA assets to debt. ( Functional disconnect ) ( In fact AFAIK, there is not even an accounting of assets in the USA )

6 ) Studio.R quips that US taxpaying citizenry is biggest asset to true owner.

7 ) Mozel points out that there are different titles Allodial ( Not in my American Heritage 3rd ) .

8 ) Mozel also points out that unless you have title ( Allodial Title ) you are in effect a user.

It seems to me, that this issue hinges on the right to own land. Some American Indians, and others hold the belief that we do not own the land, the land owns us. To this point of view, would not the concept of ownership of land be just another legalized fiction?

At some point, this becomes an exercise in philosophy. It begs the question of what is real? If you say that LAND is real, then money is a representation of land, then money ( ie gold ) is not really land, but is a representation of it. If gold is an abstraction, then isn't it just as much a legalized fiction as a piece of paper ( notwithstanding its intrinsic value ) ?

Alberich, sorry. I tried to find terra firma, but, I'm afraid I'm swimming in the deep end of the pool here, and I can't see it at the moment.

Mozel. I'm intrigued by the concept of different *kinds* of title, or ownership. It seems to me that the solution to the riddle is in the understand of these different titles, how they came into being ( I assume they were legally created ) , and what the purposes of each is.

I too appreciate very much your depth here, and your willingness to pilot a weaker craft in deep water.

CompGeek.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:52
oris (blooper) ID#238422:
Some Americans do not have a feeling of moderation,
but I guess it's not a problem...for them.


Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:51
Squirrel (Y2K Software Debugging) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A COBOL & PL1 programmer friend back for the weekend from digging into old program code tells me that fixing ONLY Y2K portions of the code is easy. She could teach people off the street how to do it. And she expects companies to start hiring at minimum wage to do that next year as they get desperate. Right now these companies figure they have the time so they are hiring experienced programmers to do Y2K AND maintenance and upgrading that they have long wanted/needed done anyway. This programmer also expresses the concern that once you open up a program and start changing code it is easy for inexperienced people to really mess up the program. Thus the low-wage crash crews may come back to bite the budget cutting project managers.
Hmmmm
Must give thought to what the above possibilities portend.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:47
James (Blooper@I understand what you are saying. Although my background in economics is) ID#252150:
Copyright © 1998 James/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
limited to the required courses I took in my Bus Admin College program,
I also studied credit mgmt & have read fairly extensively on those subjects.

I'm not a complete convert to the new paradigm BS, but I think anyone who has followed these mkts for the past 20 yrs or so would have to agree that many of the old rules don't seem to apply anymore. I think that there is a good chance that the U.S. economy will eventually succumb to
the forces that are devastating Asia, but I have no idea of the timetable, & I think that there is an ouside chance that Rubin & Greenspan are actually smart enough to somehow navigate the supertanker U.S.S. America through these dangerous shoals.

You asked me if I thought that a stock mkt crash would take every stock down. As they say--a rising tide lifts all ships & the reverse is also true. I try to think of a mkt of stocks rather than a stock mkt. I tried shorting several tech stocks & got burned. I'm not going to fight the trend. I now have about 40% of my portfolio in equities ex au stocks & about 30% in au stocks-mostly ABX. I caught the last run up in ABX & was lucky enough to sell 1/2 my position near the recent top. I started to scale back in late last week & although I think I came back in too early,
I will keep buying every 5-7% decline from here. I find it extremely difficult to time the au mkt, so try to trade the middle range. If the unconceivable happens & the POG goes back to it's old lows or even lower & stays there for a Q or 2, then many more marginal au mines will be forced to shut down, ABX will take over the most promising jrs at ridiculously low prices & when POG eventually comes back I'll be quite well off. I also bought some PDG Jan2000 leaps & have orders in for more.


Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:44
STUDIO.R (@Lord Disney.....from the Dylan masterpiece Slow Train Comin'........) ID#288369:
Everybody's gotta' serve somebody. I, too, am pressed into service.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:40
blooper (Of course the French have CULTURE,) ID#207145:
But they're still asses.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:40
oris (blooper) ID#238422:
You are lucky there is no French on this site to answer
you...

Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:38
oris (John Disney) ID#238422:
Thanks, Brother, you cooled me down...

Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:38
kiwi (Fact: gold demand is surging) ID#194311:
Copyright © 1998 kiwi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gold demand surges in Gulf despite worldwide plunge


DUBAI, May 20 ( AFP ) - Gold demand in Saudi Arabia and other
oil-rich Gulf states climbed to a record level in the first quarter
of 1998, bucking a worldwide trend which has seen consumption
plummet with the crisis in Asia.
In Saudi Arabia, a bargain price for the precious metal combined
with the launch of new jewellery products and Moslem holidays to
lift gold consumption by around three percent to a quarterly record
of 70.1 tonnes, the World Gold Council ( WGC ) said Wednesday.
Demand also peaked at 25.3 tonnes in the United Arab Emirates
( UAE ) and grew by nearly one percent to 17 tonnes in Kuwait, Oman,
Bahrain and Qatar, WGC said in a report on global gold demand from
its Dubai office.
The surge in regional demand comes as combined world consumption
plunged 55 percent in the first quarter of 1998 compared to the same
period of 1997.
WGC said the decline was mainly because many southeast Asians
were forced by the region's economic crisis to sell their
jewellery.
In another exception, gold demand in India surged by 17 percent
in India, according to WGC.
India, the biggest gold market in the world, recorded a rise to
190.7 tonnes in the first quarter over the same period of 1997,
because of lower prices and government measures to liberalise the
gold trade.
The Middle East and India region was unaffected by the
Southeast Asian financial crisis, WGC said.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:37
blooper (Oris,) ID#207145:
The French always complain about our culture, of course we saved their asses.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:34
oris (HighRise) ID#238422:
I'm just having fun, my friend.

But...

The problem with some Americans is that they
are not familiar with the feeling of MODERATION-
they drink a case of BUD and a bottle of vodka
together and then say that alcohol is a drug...

It's called lack of culture, sorry.













Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:31
John Disney__A (Comments) ID#24135:
For StudioR ..
I think you are developing a VERY
healthy attitude toward slavery ..
Massah is pleased !! Glory be !!

For EJ
Glad to hear you have stopped. Your
posts seem a bit clearer now.
I think nerve gas is over the top.
Even napalm is going too far. I would
draw the line at white phosphorus.

For Oris my brother ..
Dont worry .. ej is not serious ..
He's jes kidding around.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:28
chas (mozel re 210 page doc) ID#342315:
How much you charge for a copy of this document? I think I have a good title in fee, but with your deep digging , I would like to be sure. Thanx a bunch, Charlie

Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:20
oris (EJ) ID#238422:
Copyright © 1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You had a hangover. Pretty bad. Means you do not know
how to drink. I use alcohol in a way
that would not cause it. You seems to be a drug addict....if
you say alcohol is a drug.

Just kidding, of course.

By the way, was it really a Prohibition that
proved that alhocol is a drug? Did it establish any
truth? Why did Prohibition end? Because they found it
not to be a drug or ggot scared of Al Capone?
Where is logic in ending Prohibition
if it is a drug, as you say and bad for society?
Would you vote for Prohibition
again? Still no logic... If alcohol is drug, then Prohibition
had to stay forever, but it ended...Whom to blame for the
problem? Government?


Respectfully yours,
Oris.



Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:19
blooper (Pay that mortgage off, ) ID#207145:
If real deal deflation can be seen on horizon, if you have been so blessed . The dollar would continue to appreciate in value, so that, in effect your mortgage payment could go through the roof. I am going for a stiff drink, I have depressed myself. Time to lighten up.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:19
mozel (@NJ @chas ) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
NJ A man has allodial, absolute title to his land or he is not a Freeman.
If you have a beef with a corporation having allodial title, that's another matter. If you have a beef with the government selling land for less than its worth, that's another matter. If you want to sell your land and hold on to the water rights or mineral rights, that's another matter. But, if you have not allodial, absolute title to the land that is yours, you have been reduced to the status of serf. These are not just idle words. They are words of life-altering consequence.

@chas Can of worms indeed. And it is all BS. And the people have been disinherited. And I've said it all before here in some depth. Now, I am in possession of a 210 page document that purports to show how to obtain allodial title. It was once obtainable at 714-374-6631 from Citizens for Sovereignty, Huntington Beach, Califfornia. In the Western States, you purportedly obtain allodial title via a Federal Land Patent. In the original states, it's more complicated. But there is a Land Office somewhere. The fact is the legal system only delivers to the buyer a merchantable title. And when the attorneys get through with the transaction, the State is an equitable owner. So, when they foreclose for taxes, they are making a claim on their own ownership. The equitable ownership is also how they get in the door to restrict use and regulate activity on the land. They are taking care of their own interest in the property. They have the truer title after the attorneys finish.

What burns me is that the attorneys take pay from you for doing a job on your for the State. And never clue anybody in.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:17
STUDIO.R (@and in the evening, let the willowed man drink of the rum tree......) ID#288369:
Copyright © 1998 STUDIO.R/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
and the ache and sorrow will flow from his long muscles and gently soak into the tattered mattress laid about his dark corner. Then he will surely forget his hate of the hot day's work that consumes the whole of his life in service to the MASSAH.

And each night let this man see the tax stamp of the MASSAH, feel it, twist it.... and thereby he may ever know of the governor's bottled gift to him. And in the fierce sun of morrow, the tax will flow, as if freely, from his pores onto the MASSAH's holy ground. And the rum is his pit and part, this paltry of the fruit that grows from his daily labor.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:05
blooper (Deflation) ID#207145:
You might as well say depression. Dollars hard to get, no corporate profits. Massive lay-offs. Son, this is not psyc 101 here. This is the end of the road for 10 years, if deflation hits the US hard. Kiss it goodby boys. Oh yes, and pay all ALL YOUR BILLS, and have lots of emergency money. Gold doesn't like deflation either. The dollar would be MAX strong.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 16:04
James (Mozel@Your gun I.Q. test) ID#252150:
I'm afraid that most Canadians fail your test. Mainly because the establishment controls the media & the great unwashed masses are too brain dead to think for themselves. Even though they realize that criminals will always have access to guns, they want to keep them out of the hands of law abiding citizens. Of course, members of the establishment or wannabes think that they are safe in their exclusive subdivisions & walled comunnities, so the hell with the rest of us.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 15:57
blooper (James,) ID#207145:
Inflation/ deflation are not psycological problems. You've got too many dollars, too few goods, or too few dollars chasing too many goods. Psy . comes in when consumers race to spend devaluing dollars. Deflation means the dollars you owe are harder and harder to pay bach because they are becoming more valuable.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 15:54
chas (Prometheus re quakes) ID#342315:
Copyright © 1998 chas/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The most prominent place for quakes to occur ( todays knowlegde ) is on a fault line. The work of the USGS has a fairly comprehensive array of fault lines in the US. There are a number of causes to initiate quakes on faults. Without going into these now, the overall force is the pressures arising from adjustments on the planet from plate tectonics. Down the line from here are local changes, water filling and resolving pressures from previous activity. Nuclear explosions can be more than enough to set off a quake. However, there is not enough history on correlating quakes and precursor activity. The reason is there is no real understanding of precursor activity. Japan has done a lot of work on this, but translations are not any where near available. When plates on either side of a fault move, they emitt an emf. The seismic equipment is after the fact. If there were as many emf detectors around the world as there are seismographs there could be a substantial attack on predicting quakes. I still have not had time to compile the details, but tomorrow, I'll try to get up the freguencies that the detectors should look for and the relationships that are pertinent. Once this data has been correlated, a better method of prediction can be attained. From what studies I have done, very few quakes occur off the bat at a point where no faults are known. Many fault areas have lain dormant for considerable periods of time and that may be due to the fact that when the quake occured, it resolved all forces to completion. I don't have have all the answers, but sometimes questions bring out details from dim recesses. Let me know, Charlie

Date: Sun May 31 1998 15:49
James (Donald@The deflation/inflation conundrum) ID#252150:
Copyright © 1998 James/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
This is from a JTF posting:

I know we still have significant inflation -- about 3-5% yearly. All you need to do is buy
something. But -- try to find this in the official indices. So -- our leaders become more
sophisticated over the years, and are better at 'cooking the books' than they were in the 60's
and 70's.

It all comes down to perception. If the general public believes that there is no inflation, there
can be no wage/price spiral, even if the inflation is really there. Of course, just with the stock
market, this only works on faith. And faith has a nasty habit of shifting abruptly.

Me:
If we are actually experiencing undereported inflation right now, then if they starting to report actual inflation, would'nt that cause people to fear inflation much more than deflation? It semms to me that it would'nt be difficult for them to fudge the numbers to the other extreme. Since inflation/deflation is mostly perception/psychological expectations I can't imagine them ever letting deflation get the upper hand. Granted this would be bad for the $U.S. & bonds, but if they did it in concert with the other CBs I don't have much doubt that they could avoid a deflationary collapse.

I think that we sometimes underestimate the tools available to the PPT & the skill with which they can wield them.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 15:39
robnoel__A (Mozel....this ones for you....nothing in US media about this...mmmmm) ID#411112:
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a284197.htm

Date: Sun May 31 1998 15:39
Ron (What took them so long?) ID#413195:
Gollum: Not surprised by this. I was stationed in Germany during my stint in the Army, and support for the Nazi cause was quite evident amongst Germans, as was denial of Nazi atrocities. Perhaps that was a function of my proximity to Nurenberg, one of Hitler's strongholds. However, neo-Nazi skinhead attacks are still quite prevalent throughout the country, and do not bode well for the future.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 15:29
chas (Slingshot re self imposed) ID#342315:
There is one alternative- the hose

Date: Sun May 31 1998 15:26
EJ (oris: logic) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Alchohol is a beverage as cocaine is a powder -- both are drugs, mind-altering substances

Are you saying that when leaders of the countries meet together
and drink alcoholic beverages during diplomatic
dinners ( lunches, suppers, etc. ) , they take drugs?
Are you saying that wine used during church
services is the way of making people drugged?

Yup.

Are you saying that alhocol blood limit established
by the law is some kind of allowance to take even
a limited amount of drugs? Are you saying that every
restaurant serving alcohol is a drug distribution center?

You betcha.

You are saying that everybody is an idiot and you are the
only one who knows...It's funny. You can not be serious...

Doesn't follow from the antecedents. I'm not the first to see achohol as a drug. It was once banned as a drug in the US, in an unfortunate experiment that built a huge, criminal infrustructure which, bad as it was, is dwarfed by the criminal system that we tolerate today that provides illegal drugs to users. I drink a fair amount myself, in fact have a hangover this a.m. from partying with friends last night. I have no issue with drinking and thinking of alchohol as a drug. I'm not sure I understand your issue with it. I know that people not from the US, especially Asians, think of drugs as simple bad and the people who use them as bad. They therefore can't view any substance they themselves take in as a drug without feeling that they were bad for doing so.

-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 15:25
HighRise (oris) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Oris, I saw your post last night, and wanted to respond to the alcohol comment , but thought better of it. Just saw your recent post to , and feel that I will respond.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:37
oris ( EJ ) ID#238422:
Copyright © 1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
With all my respect, you are not logical.

Cement is also a powder, the same is true for
shark catriladge...These substances are not drugs.
So, the logic says that not every powder is a drug
like cocaine. Alcohol is a beverage, and beverage
is some sort of drinking fluid.

It is an established fact that Alcohol is a mind altering addictive poison.

Are you saying
that when leaders of the countries meet together
and drink alcoholic beverages during diplomatic
dinners ( lunches, suppers, etc. ) , they take drugs?

Yes, many of them are conducting business that affects the lives of millions while under the influence.
Are you saying that wine used during church
services is the way of making people drugged?

If they use wine instead of Grape juice, yes.

Are you saying that alcohol blood limit established
by the law is some kind of allowance to take even
a limited amount of drugs?

Yes, that is exactly what it is.

Are you saying that every
restaurant serving alcohol is a drug distribution center?

In all reality, that is what they all are.

You are saying that everybody is an idiot and you are the
only one who knows...It's funny. You can not be serious....

These are the facts, and if you are not aware of the known information and dangers of alcohol, I am not surprise, most people are not; however, one has to ask one’s self why they are so passionately defending a poisonous, mind altering, addictive drug. Does one defend flour with such a passion - I think not.

Take care and have a shot.

I have, take care,

HighRise

Date: Sun May 31 1998 15:24
sorex (trader ed: thanks) ID#27499:
I was wondering if there was any kind of culmination apparent for june/july/august.

JM

Date: Sun May 31 1998 15:23
chas (mozel re allodial) ID#342315:
OED says absolute ownership. If this is not true, title work and a deed in fee is all BS. You have opened to me a can of worms, and I don't mean anything funny, that has to be resolved. I guess the best way to disinherit the country is to have it fixed where we are all floating on a big lie. I would assume that the objective of the perpetrators of the big lie is to have alloidal title and leave everybody else hanging. I hope not, but nobody digs deeper than you. Thanx for the notice, Charlie

Date: Sun May 31 1998 15:22
Maverick (@Slingshot - How about Elba? Hell, he thinks he's Napolean anyway!) ID#34761:
But any country will do.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 15:18
SlingShot (Billy Boy Come Home) ID#105111:
So what do you guys think of the idea that one day soon Clinton will fly to [one of a long list of candidate countries] ..... and not come back? A self-imposed exile just before Starr delivers his final report to the House or the new House committee investigating ChinaGate interviews the new Deep Throat? ...... hm?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 15:13
NJ (Mozel) ID#20748:
Disagree with your assertion re earth and all its contents beneath ?

Surely you know how well the claim of Barrick Corporation to all contents beneath was defended by our worthy Senators from the Western States, for all of the property bought by them for a princely sum of $10,000.00. They do not pay even a nickel in royalties. Board seats given to Bush and Mulrooney also helped.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 15:13
Maverick (http://woodrow.mpls.frb.fed.us/economy/calc/cpihome.html) ID#34761:
You oughta be able to click on this. ( Re previous post ) .

Date: Sun May 31 1998 15:11
mozel (@WileE Thanks. ) ID#153102:
I'll keep it up as long as I can. I confess your words were most welcome today and gratefully received.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 15:11
Maverick (What's a dollar worth? - http://woodrow.mpls.frb.fed.us/economy/calc/cpihome.html) ID#34761:
Thought this would be a useful URL for doing the math on what silver or gold is worth in a specific year's dollar vs. 1998. Also useful for determining what your house, car, or whatever is really worth. Thanks to the Fed. Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.


Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:58
mozel (@tsclaw) ID#153102:
I agree. In fact, I think the name Turbo Tax says a lot about what the program is designed to deliver to Massa.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:57
NJ (EJ) ID#20748:
I meant West, of course.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:53
mozel (@chas) ID#153102:
Thanks for your comments. I ask again, In what sense is it our country if we have not absoloute, allodial title to land, the sky above it, and the earth and all its contents beneath ?


Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:53
NJ (EJ) ID#20748:
China guards their own interests, as they should. They want no threat from their North, or their South, while they focus on the East.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:52
chas (Promotheus your 14:34) ID#342315:
Glad to explain what I know. Give me a little while to organize. First comments without references and later if necessary I will provide them. Thanx for your concern, Charlie

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:51
tsclaw (@ MOZEL) ID#327123:
You may be correct but I don't see Turbo Tax being a viable option if I'm correct about where gold is going to.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:50
Mr. Mick (Robnoel, Silverbaron, I just downloaded the whole bill..........) ID#345321:
will read it over and get back to you............Out for now.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:46
WileE (mozel) ID#68316:
deepest thanks for tending the torch. many do not yet see, although it is much clearer now than even 5-10 years ago. sadly, all will soon see but only those who heed the warnings will be prepared. thank you for the warnings--important to all--even if not understood or appreciated at this time. please continue to light the way.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:45
NJ (Gollum: Yes.) ID#20748:



Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:44
mozel (@Gun Control I.Q. Test) ID#153102:
Test Question: Do you think the right to keep and bear arms is necessary to the security of a Free Republic and do you believe the right to use arms in self-defense is inalienable ?

Those who answer No are not smart enough to own guns and should not be Permitted to do so.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:43
Mr. Mick (Robnoel, Silverbaron - I hope you're right.............) ID#345321:
regarding the definition of collectible coins. If I read it right, it included coins that were issued as money in prior times. That obviates the issue of purity. FWIW

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:41
chas (mozel re your 14:04) ID#342315:
You got that right. The smart bastards have pulled a big swicht. They have also been on a program to include in their pot all the mineral resources that they know about. The Mining Law of 1872 has been abrogated to remove American access and open up world access. Many other deals, too numerous to mention, are following the same trail. I'm really glad you brought this out. Many thanx, Charlie

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:37
oris (EJ) ID#238422:
Copyright © 1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
With all my respect, you are not logical.

Cement is also a powder, the same is true for
shark catriladge...These substances are not drugs.
So, the logic says that not every powder is a drug
like cocaine. Alcohol is a beverage, and beverage
is some sort of drinking fluid.

Are you saying
that when leaders of the countries meet together
and drink alcoholic beverages during diplomatic
dinners ( lunches, suppers, etc. ) , they take drugs?
Are you saying that wine used during church
services is the way of making people drugged?
Are you saying that alhocol blood limit established
by the law is some kind of allowance to take even
a limited amount of drugs? Are you saying that every
restaurant serving alcohol is a drug distribution center?

You are saying that everybody is an idiot and you are the
only one who knows...It's funny. You can not be serious....

Take care and have a shot.


Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:36
mozel (@Remember People Don't Invent Nukes; They Make Themselves. @tclaw) ID#153102:
I forgot to mention that this Legal Robbery Assistance service is performed by officers of the Legal Robber. You know, like attorneys are officers of the Court.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:34
Prometheus (@Chas) ID#210235:
Please use up boatloads of bandwidth. This is an important issue, and needs to be addressed. Very few people can express an informed opinion on this subject! If those thousands of Afgan folks were the first casualties of the Indian/Pakistan skirmish, it's important. There are literally hundreds of millions of us sitting on or near major fault lines, so IF these could, say, trigger a wave of major quakes, rippling round the world, we oughta know it. Would explosions at or above ground level also have any effect? At least as important as Y2K? no?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:30
robnoel__A (Sunday reading.....It didn't start with Loral.....) ID#396249:
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a287908.htm

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:29
mozel (@tclaw) ID#153102:
I am offering a new service. It's called Legal Robbery Assistance.
The way it works is if you pay me to tell you how much the Legal Robber wants, then you will never actually have to face the Legal Robber. Sound good ? Fees for this service are modest. In the same sense of the word when it is used in the statement taxes are modest.

Call one of my type when gold reaches its full potential. Or when you win lotto.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:28
chas (wombat re quake) ID#342315:
Copyright © 1998 chas/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You don't need plates grinding, a fault break will do well. You made a good approach and it is entirely POSSIBLE. No current geophysicist will now put up this point, but their threshold of acceptability is always ex post facto. I don't have appropriate maps handy, but I bet there are enough major fault lines there to support your point. The area is geologically unstable ( check past history of quakes ) and it is entirely possible that this nuke activity has tripped up this quake. I'm not there and have no access to geophysics and equipment there, but I woul;d say the odds are in your favor. Further discussion would take up boatloads of bandwidth, so if you like, my email is--cdevoto@abts.net--Good call, Charlie

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:27
Qestor@Observations (Defalation and the Value of Gold) ID#223146:
Copyright © 1998 Qestor@Observations/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Donald and JTF--- As defation starts to build momentum, I question at what point do the money people ( Bankers, Lenders and Investors ) lose confidence in the value of the currency. At first they concern themselves with the recovery of principle as the debt unwinds then something must happen to question the value of that which is being paid off. They start to park these returned funds in US Treasuries thereby creating the low interest rates. As discussed in earlier posts, Japan has been unable to reflate their economy. They have allowed a slow external devaluation rather than one controled by them. Will it take a government sponsored revaluation of gold in order to reflate the economy or can it happen through the free market. The timing of this change in their perceived valuation of the currency may be the beginning of the real bull market in Gold. For I believe that until these people start to fear the value of the currency then the change in sentiment towards gold will not take place.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:25
Selby (Remember Nuclear weapons Don't kill people --People do.) ID#286230:
There was report that the TSE is planning to add a surcharge to each trade to pay for the YK2 solution.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:18
tsclaw (@ STUDIO.R) ID#327123:
When gold reaches its full potential there are a few of us here that are going to need tax attorneys. It will be like winning the lotto.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:09
EJ (robnoel: peace, brother. NJ, now why did you have to go and spoil) ID#45173:
a perfectly good Sunday afternoon by reminding me why Clinton is going ahead with his visit to China after the Chinese-provoked atomic goings-on in India and Pakistan. They have missles pointing at us. We have a very, er, special relationship. As the Chinese say ( my wife is Chinese ) , trust everyone, but always cut the deck.
-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:06
wombat (India/Pakistan/Major Earth Quake) ID#23941:
-
Does any one have any thoughts on the India/Pakistan underground tests and the major earthquake across the border in Afganistan.

The amount of sesmic activity that is released in explosions of the size that India and Pakistan have been releasing over the last 3-4 weeks is huge ( so far 13 bombs have gone off ) .

Earth quakes are caused by tectonic plates slipping along each other ( the greater the slip and the less smooth the slip the greater the earth quake ) .

I suspect that the first few blasts set up the enviroment for the plates to slip and the last blast just was the straw that broke the camels back.

Sesmic Waves can travel a long distance ( you can pick up quakes half around the world ) , they can travel more easily ( lose less destructive power ) if there is fault zone located near by. What I would like to know is are the any major fault zones between Pakistan/India and other contries in the region.


Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:04
Gollum (@NJ) ID#43349:
Do you think, then, that Pakistan might just
be a pawn for Chinese interests?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:04
mozel (@To Whom It May Concern) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The satellites, the missles, the national parks and forest, the strategic reserves of oil and metal and chemical, and every other tangible BELONGS TO MASSA.

Now, show me where MASSA has ENCUMBERED his things with debt. The notes are not redeemable in Massa's things. Where does it say Massa has to give up his things if he defaults ?

Massa has encumbered you, your children ( which are in your custody for only so long as you obey Massa's rules and regulations for raising children ) , and the things Massa allows you to use according to rules and regulations with debt. You have to give up your things if you don't pay Massa's tax that he uses to pay your debt.

You can show a man how he is in the condition of slavery, but if he doesn't want to see it, he will not.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 14:00
BCIWN (CFCM) ID#206298:
Also anyone have info on CFCM?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:59
BCIWN (RANGYand DROOY) ID#206298:
I bought Drooy at 3 3/16 and RANGY at 1 1/2. I really thought DROOY was ready to breakout to the upside a couple of weeks ago when I bought it. Anybody have any good fundamental info on either of these stocks?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:59
STUDIO.R (yo......) ID#288369:
bbl.......and as always, GO GOLDBUGS!

and has become customary.....collect more beef and eat more dolls.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:56
NJ (Gollum and EJ) ID#20748:
Copyright © 1998 NJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
India is not threatened by Pakistan, the main threat to India is from China. They said so on May 11.

In the North, in Tibet, China has missiles aimed at Indian cities.

In the West, China has missiles deployed in Pakistan. ( Pakistan has no scientific establishment of its own. )

Finally, in the East, China has 'rented' Coco Islands from Mynammar. Thes are two small islands in the Bay of Bengal, North of Andaman Islands, which belong to India. Coco Islands can be used as listening posts or as
missile launching pads.

The main target of Chinese missiles, of course, is the U.S.A.




Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:53
STUDIO.R (@tsclaw...........) ID#288369:
I'm very happy with our decision to load up on rangy....I simply await the unexpected, the impossible-to-anticipate events that will undermine the stability of the dollar. Some thing, or things, will happen to destabilize the dollar...I just don't know what or when?....lost in probabilities, eh?

Durban Deep is collected here in Ok., too. cheers...!

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:51
Gollum (And if that's not good enough...) ID#43349:
Reacting to Pakistan's response to India's tests, Bal Thackeray, who leads
a Hindu nationalist partner in the 14-party coalition government, urged
India to produce a devastatingly powerful type of nuclear weapon --
hydrogen bombs.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:49
robnoel__A (EJ...we all guilty of that gibberish is my second language) ID#411112:


Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:44
tsclaw (@ STUDIO.R) ID#327123:
Have you have any second thoughts on our timing of last weeks purchase of RANGY? I haven't. I believe we are at a point that this GOLD market could make a totally unexpected surge to the up side when we least expect it. The thing that is going to cause the turn around is when some of the financial reporters wake up to what is going to happen to the U.S. Dollar January 1st when the Euro Dollar kicks in. Durban Deep is starting to look like a screaming buy also.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:43
EJ (robnoel: Grave? Burying? Are you maybe having a few too many drinks) ID#45173:
this Sunday afteroon? The only thing you could ever bury me in is gibberish.
-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:41
robnoel__A (EJ...you both have the same,party favour,proclivity....you dug the grave I'am just burying you in it) ID#411112:

.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:40
EJ (Gold is the only metal for which human beings have any lasting respect.) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
As a rule, there is nothing that offends us more than a new kind of money. We felt humiliated during the early days of the war when we were no longer paid in heavy little disks of gold, and had to accept paper pounds and ten shillingses. We even sneered at the design. We always sneer at the the design of new money or a new stamp. But we hated the paper even more than the new design. We could not believe it had any value. We spent it as though it were paper. One would as soon have thought to collect old newspapers as of playing the miser with it. That is probably the true-secret in the fall of the value of money. Economists explain it in other ways. But it seems likeliest that paper money lost its value because we did not value it. Shopkeepers took advantage of our foolish innocence, and the tailor demanded sums in paper that he would never have dared to ask in gold. I doubt if the habit of thrift will ever be restored till the gold currency comes back. Gold is the only metal for which human beings have any lasting respect. No one but a child would save up pennies. There is something in gold -- the colour, perhaps, reminding us of the sun, the god of our ancestors -- that puts us into the mood of worshipers. The children of Israel found it impossible not to worship the golden calf. They have gone on worshiping it ever since. Had the calf been paper, they would, I feel confident, have remained good Christians.

Robert Lynd
'The Three-Halfpenny Bit'
The Pleasures of Ignorance, 1930

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:32
STUDIO.R (@DaveW...........) ID#288369:
Perhaps, when we're real bored someday...we'll attempt to list all the taxes....I think I pay somewhere around fifty taxes.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:28
Gollum (What took them so long?) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved


Bonn pardons victims of Nazi justice
Blanket pardon voids old sentences by Hitler’s courts
ASSOCIATED PRESS

BONN, Germany, May 29 —German lawmakers have
approved a blanket pardon for hundreds of
thousands of Germans convicted during World
War II of being enemies of the Nazis. The
pardon, which received overwhelming support in
the lower house of parliament, also clears the
names of deserters of Adolf Hitler’s army,
resistance fighters, Jews and others who were
jailed or ordered executed by Nazi courts for
military, religious, political or racial reasons.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:28
STUDIO.R (@Lord Disney...........) ID#288369:
In fact, are we rangy fans just betting on the savvy of the old man and his secretary, and of course, the price of gold. he seems to move quite deftly in making his deals.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:27
DaveW (Plus) ID#268232:
I should have added that tax rates are modest except for inheritance taxes, which I feel are double taxation.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:27
EJ (robnoel: thx for the post. That was good, compelling reading) ID#45173:
Now you're getting someplace. Thx.

By the way, what makes you think I'm a fan of Clinton?
-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:25
DaveW (Studio.R) ID#268232:
Compared to the rest of the world, our tax rates are modest at worst.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:20
EJ (Gollum: There's more than meets the eye in Pakistan/India crisis) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
These guys are intent on settling things once and for all, one way or another. And screw the opinions of outsiders, who've been no help at all, who have in fact given mountains of cash to their rich but troubled Asian neighbors, like S. Korean. Now we will isolate them further with sanctions so they can really stew alone together in their mutual hatred. Did you catch the news clip on CNN the day the India tests were announced? They showed footage of a M-11 missile with the following lettered on the side in English: India Killer Can't imagine why the Indians people are nervous about Pakistan. By the way, CNN seems to have decided that footage was no longer appropriate because I never saw it again that day or since.
-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:18
STUDIO.R (@DaveW...............) ID#288369:
US's biggest asset: a thoroughly complacent ( ceptin' us bugs ) highly-taxed-citizenry and all the equipment needed to collect the taxes. We ( USers ) are allowed to hang around here if we serve the debt and deliver the wants unto our political masters. Income is more important than assets, as always.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:15
BCIWN (reply to Dave's thread.) ID#206298:
Dave,

The buildings, forests and institutions that the US has are hard assets that if I am owed money by the US, I am not interested in being paid in lumber from a nzational park.
One of the reasons for using gold and silver as a monetary unit, is that they are easily transferable to others as payment for a debt or for purchase of an item. This is not true of a highway or a forest.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:12
robnoel__A ( Myths about gun ownership for the benifit of EJ...now I know why you think like Clinton) ID#411112:
http://www.gunowners.org/op9806.htm

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:11
Gollum (escalation--where will it end?) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
ABCNEWS.com
May 30 — Pakistan may within days again test a
long-range missile that could carry its newly proved
nuclear weapons into most of India, U.S.
intelligence officials tell ABCNEWS’ David Ensor.
“This will greatly alarm the Indians, and
probably cause them to match, or attempt to
match the Pakistani missile capabilities, which
are superior,” Ensor said.
Pakistan has said it will soon be able to
load the missile, the Ghauri, with a nuclear warhead, but,
Ensor said, “American intelligence officials think it may take a
year. maybe longer.”
Pakistan has previously tested the Ghauri, which loaded
with a warhead can go about 900 miles. Pakistan also has
Chinese-made M-11 missiles that can travel 370 miles.
India’s Prithvi can travel approximately 155 miles, which can
nevertheless hit many key targets within Pakistan.

Longer-Range Missiles Being Developed
The United States and its allies have been trying hard to halt
the southern Asian arms race where it is and prevent India
and Pakistan from developing missiles that could carry them.
India and Pakistan are already working to make their new
nuclear devices into bombs that could be carried in airplanes
or missiles, analysts believe.
Pakistan has also been working on an even longer-range
missile, the Ghaznvi, with a range of about 1,850 miles,
according to reports.
However, “I’m told they can’t really test it” because there
is not enough space within Pakistan, ABCNEWS’ Jim Laurie
reported from Pakistan today.
India has also worked on a longer-range missile, the Agni,
that could conceivably travel 1,240 miles once it is fully
developed, analysts say.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:09
EJ (Auric: Hey, I heard that! Turn me in to the COBOL authorities, eh?) ID#45173:
Geez. You find out who you can trust...

sharfin has a good idea about demanding payment in gold, but somehow I get the feeling they'll set the terms. Of course, I could always forget how to program and require gold to jog my memory.

-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:05
DaveW (To a thread late last night.) ID#268232:
Copyright © 1998 DaveW/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Oh, but the dollar is backed by real assets ( not debt ) . Not only those National Parks and the Federal Highway system spoken about last night but, by all those other Federal assets including dams, forests, buildings, etc., etc., etc., etc ( the list is long and impressive ) . Also, do not forget the strategic stockpiles of of metals, other chemicals, fibers and, of course, GOLD. If we start to add these all together, we begin to truly understand the power of the American dollar as compared to other curencies. It represents the strength of our infrastructure and institutions, including demorcracy as compared to the rest of the world.

What this says for the POG, I'm not sure. I think it may say that AU is just another commodity that will find its price based upon the laws supply and demand in an imperfect market place.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:04
BCIWN (chief consolidated mining co.) ID#206298:
dOES ANYBODY HAVE ANY IDEAS AS TO WHY cfcm WAS UP 25% WITH 5 TIMES NORMAL VOLUME ON fRIDAY. tHANKS!!

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:02
EJ (John Disney: Assuming any citizen can handle certain lethal weapons) ID#45173:
where do you draw the line on lethality? Automatic weapons? Rocket-propelled weapons? Nerve gas? Do you accept government control of highly lethal weapons for use only in your defense? If it were legal for own rocket launchers, do you think you'd find more in South Central than you do today?

By the way, I don't snork coke. Not that I don't like it any less than the next guy, but it's no good for me so I don't. All of my rantings pertain from natural chemical brain function.

-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 13:01
John Disney__A (Rangy went UP ) ID#24135:
To sportsfans
Rangy actually rose on the RSA
market friday. It closed at 5 rands which
is 31/32.
The last I looked rangold resources
on the London market has stayed unchanged
at 6$ for about the past month. It
comprises about half of rangold's
assets.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 12:54
John Disney__A (Dont worry about those workers) ID#24135:
Donald ..
Because they work and play in Siberian
paradise .. wild berries .. mushrooms ..
the forest wonders .. Girls like Kournikova ( )
.. bears to play with .. Nice exercise with
rocks .. Best vodka
A wonderland .. they should have to PAY
to work there..
You do not understand Russia

Date: Sun May 31 1998 12:52
sharefin (Studio) ID#284255:
-
My pleasure
What else is missing

These files are real easy to make.
And good practise.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Walker letter update
As of the market close on 5/29/98 the Signal Strength for the
Lowrisk Market Allocation Model rose from 8 to 10. This means
that our Graduated Strategy will move from its position of 25%
in the stock market and 75% in cash to a position of 50% in the
stock market and 50% in cash ( or money markets ) . This switch
will be effective as of the market close tomorrow ( 6/1/98 ) . Our
Graduated Strategy moves assets into and out of the stock market
in 25% increments. Our other strategies remain unchanged. The
current status of our four strategies is detailed at the bottom
of this update.

Long time readers know that we have had a negative outlook on
stocks since mid April and the Signal Strength on our model has
been declining since 4/24. In that time the Signal Strength dropped
from 18 to 8. This is now the first uptick. This change in Signal
Strength is due to declining interest rates. In late April the 30
year T-bond rate was over 6%. It is now down to 5.8%. Shorter term
rates have also dropped. In general, lower interest rates are good
for stocks, and our allocation model takes this into effect. It is
not unusual for the Signal Strength to fluctuate somewhat in
turbulent markets before settling down. Whether that is the case
this time, or whether the Signal Strength will start trending up
remains to be seen.

This rise in the Signal Strength does not leave us overjoyed at the
current stock market. Frankly, we don't find much to be encouraged
about right now. Last week's steep selloff early in the week left a
very oversold market. These kinds of dips are normally met with very
enthusiastic buying, but volume and buying dried up on Thursday and
Friday. This could have been due to the holiday shortened week, but
still it is not an encouraging sign for the market.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 12:50
chas (JTF re Quakes) ID#342315:
Sometime back you expressed an interest in quakes. With Donald's notice of a strong wave emission some weeks ago and the latest near quake in Afghanistan, there may be some discussion appropriate. If you would like, send me your email and I'll kick it around. I lost yours in a computer and ISP change. Thanx, Charlie--cdevoto@abts.net

Date: Sun May 31 1998 12:49
6pak (Big Bang Reform @ Japan & Big IS Bigger - Free Markets serve the shareholder. Good EH!) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
May 31, 1998

Nikko, Salomon Smith Barney talking tie-up

Industry sources said that the two companies might announce this week that Salomon, part of the Travelers Group Inc., would take up a stake of between 10 percent and 25 percent in Nikko, Japan's third biggest brokerage.

The sources said the stake would involve hundreds of millions of dollars.

The investment would make Salomon the largest shareholder in Nikko, and it would surpass the amount of equity held by Nikko's current largest investor, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, according to the sources.

The investment would bring Nikko into the fold of the new Citigroup being formed by the mega-merger of Travelers and Citicorp. It would also be a first in the Japanese financial industry, which is going through major structural and regulatory reform.

In April Nikko announced it had posted a current loss of 38.2 billion yen ( $274 million ) for the business year that ended March 31.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/BROKERS-SALOMON.html

Date: Sun May 31 1998 12:48
Auric (Y2K) ID#255151:

A mini-test of Y2K is coming up. New York state's budget for the next two years starts June 1. Let's keep an eye on that. Will the Government pay us a bounty if we find Cobol programmers? : ) )

Date: Sun May 31 1998 12:43
John Disney__A (Your're missing something) ID#24135:
For EJ
Your theory sounds good but isnt. Giving guns to people
who need them puts the control of guns into the hands
of the Government ( who issues the licences ) and who is
the actual enemy along with the criminal .. in no
particular order.
If you go that way .. the guys in the brown shirts
will soon need them more than others.
I support your right to snort that stuff, ej. But
it doesn't make your argument more brilliant ... it only
makes it SEEM more brilliant to you.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 12:42
sharefin (EJ) ID#284255:
-
Ask them to be paid in physical.
A few ounces a day?
It will make the work more pleasurable.

Nothing like using a carrot.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Step forward and be heard
http://www.zdnet.com/pcweek/y2k/0698/01ftc.html
The Federal Trade Commission last month published a Federal Register notice seeking public comment on the scope of the year 2000 problem.

The FTC wants feedback on the types of software and hardware that are apt to feel the bite of the millennium bug. The FTC also seeks information on how software publishers, electronics manufacturers and others have been communicating the situation to consumers.

The commission wants to learn how consumer financial services--including finance companies, consumer credit reporting agencies and other businesses--will be affected. In addition, the commission seeks comment on public interest in the agency hosting workshops on year 2000 issues. The deadline for comment is June 22. The notice is available at www.ftc.gov/opa/9805/y2k.htm

Date: Sun May 31 1998 12:40
STUDIO.R (@sharefin...........) ID#288369:
Many thanks to you for the charts........GREAT STUFF!!! muchas garcias ( cabo spelling ) a usted.....porque, esta un amigo con un corazon grande.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 12:36
EJ (sharefin: will I ge drafted?) ID#45173:
A couple of weeks ago I posted that I was concerned about someone finding an old resume of mine and turning me in as a Y2K conscript, when the time comes. I think I made a joke about drunken geeks getting hauled out of strip joints by FEMA goons to wake up chained to a desk in front of a CRT in the basement of the IRS.

Kidding aside, I believe there will be a draft and that folks like myself are vulnerable.
-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 12:33
sharefin (JTF) ID#284255:
-
Wise to be 100% cash for the next few weeks I think.
Tomorrow will bring another day to place ones bets.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Studio
Sorry about Rangy
Will include that in the next one.
Still trying to work out what other gold stocks to include?

Any sugestions anyone?

Hopefully after I have done a few more sets
I will put all the htm links on one page and dedicate it to Kitco.

I am open to any sugestions regarding what to include on these web pages.
If it's on the net it's sourceable-linkable.
Saves a lot of time jumping from page to page.
Also gives one an overview having lots of charts all on one page.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 12:25
Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug (Armstrong & Global Meltdown) ID#432214:
On Armstrong's site he has a report on a possible global meltdown. It was to be published May 30. Does anyone have access? If think it was a free report.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 12:22
STUDIO.R (@sharefin........) ID#288369:
no rangy chart....didn't make the cut? discrimination. g'day.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 12:20
JTF (Whither markets?) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
sharefin: I bailed out of my gold mutual funds. Lost 1/3 of my profits since January. Mostly cash with a little oil/defense/retail. Wondering about going 100% cash, rather than 75%, since all paper will burn if the markets tank. My mexican index puts are looking better and better.

Yes -- I noticed the incredibly low cash position ( 5% or less ) in mutual funds, and the lack of zip going into memorial day, typically a time of exuberance. It may not be coincidence that BC's image is a bit more tarnished, too. The commodity price drop may be an early sign that the US economy is flagging. US lumber prices have dropped dramatically in that last week or so. And last but not least, bearish news is starting to pick up in the US papers/magazines.

My guess is that South America is on the brink -- a collapse there will pull down all the world's markets for a time -- and we may have a US market rally for a time after this due to 'flight to safety'.

It will be interesting to watch the Oldman in action now. Hope all is well for you.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 12:16
sharefin (Gold charts and indexes) ID#284255:
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/GoldStocks.htm
XAU stocks plus SA stocks


Date: Sun May 31 1998 12:06
STUDIO.R (@blooper.....) ID#288369:
rig count, May 30....822. Down 61 in two weeks........for your consideration. best wishes.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 12:04
STUDIO.R (@No man is an atoll............) ID#288369:
and no woman is a peninsula. And no man is a woman. And some good islands are long. It's said your body should be a temple....but mine is a dumpster for love. you see My Mind has a terrible thing for wasted days and nightly flights.

For it will be a sad future history when you must giveaway a doll to get an mercan to eat a beef sandwich, Sir Angus Nostradamus, 1516. thus, halting the once-considered-inevitable grinding of all cows.

collect more beef.






Date: Sun May 31 1998 12:01
sharefin (JTF) ID#284255:
-
You could always offer real gold for their services.
Incentives to work hard.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Cadbury comments:
Five signs of a bear market are evident.
( 1 ) The Dow, the S.&P. 500, or the Dow and the S.&P. 500 have moved up in the morning, but closed down on the day in 13 of the past 26 sessions. Daily reversals in half of 26 sessions are extremely rare.
( 2 ) The net inflow of capital into the equity funds has dried up in the last two weeks according to AMG Data Services. AMG has reported a net outflow of $339 million for the two weeks through last Wednesday.
( 3 ) Mutual fund cash levels have continued to weaken. In April cash levels were 4.3% of assets according to IBD, 4.2% according to Barron's, and 3.7% according to Ned Davis Research, the first reading under 4% since computations began in 1966. By contrast cash levels were about 10% before the plunge in 1987 and 11% before the 1990 bear market.
( 4 ) Declines in volume during May were much more than seasonal.
( 5 ) You may remember that two bull market buy-signals tailed on Tuesday.

Bearishly, too, one of the year's largest up-tick readings, +917 was recorded at Friday's high. There were no large down-tick readings to offset it.
On Friday the McClellan Oscillator returned to a neutral reading, -62, having been oversold the rest of the week.
In down- markets, neutral short-term oscillator readings tend to produce interim tops.
The VIX index closed at 23 on Friday, nowhere near a buy- level .
Friday's NYSE volume of 556 million shares was the lightest volume for a Friday this year excluding the days before and after holidays and the days before Holiday weekends.
The equity put-call volume ratio for all four options exchanges combined reached a market-basing level of .50 or more at .51.
As you know, however, three consecutive days around market-basing levels through a week ago
Friday could not produce a bottom.
Only one indicator, the closing Arms Index is bullish.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 11:47
JTF (Erratum -- Inflation vs deflation) ID#57232:
'no inflation for 2 years' should read no inflation for the last 20 years. The monthly CRB spot from 1946 to 1995 showed the 3% average inflation, but the newer daily CRB spot shows no long term trend at all during a 20 year overlapping time period. Looks like a little retroactive data massaging to me. How convenient!

Date: Sun May 31 1998 11:45
mozel (@Alberich or Nat Turner Strikes Out) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Nat Turner goes to the plantation. He says, Brothers and sisters, you are not free. You are in bondage to Massa. Put down his tools by which you increase his wealth, but have none of your own. Claim the right of property in your own labor.

And the listeners say, Massa is not all that bad. He cares and shares. He lets us USE the cabin. He lets us USE the team and wagon to go visiting. He lets us USE notes on his account to get ourselves clothes at the general store. He lets us sing and dance and such. You go on. You be just talkin' stuff belongs in a book or sumfin.

The difference is this as best I can explain it. If you OWN a thing, you have unrestricted USE of it and all rights to it, subject of course to the common-law prohibition of harming another or his property. If you USE a thing, you do so by permission and strictly in accordance with rules and regulations or it can be seized and your rights in it made void and you fined or imprisoned, and any rights which you have been GRANTED in the thing are restricted and can be WITHDRAWN.

It might as well be said that it is academic whether or not you are in a trap until they close the door.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 11:38
JTF (Y2K Draft) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
sharefin: Great post! Our government is clearly the weakest link in the y2k problem. The IRS and Social Security are nowhere near y2k compliant. I don't really care if the IRS gets tied up in knots, but I do care about Social Security, so I sent for my records by mail. Now if Social Security looses everything, I have a permanent official copy.

A draft for COBOL probrammers will not work. First, how will the 'powers that be' find out? I probably did a little COBOL myself, though what I did years ago was Fortran - I may still have the old IBM cards somewhere. Secondly, you can draft an unwilling soldier, although that is not ideal. But -- can you imagine an unwilling programmer? My guess is that would be worse than not drafting any COBOL programmers. Complex intellectual activies cannot be easily forced. They must be done willingly. So -- the government will either do very little, or spend the money.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 11:35
sharefin (THIS SUPER BULL IS PULLING IN HIS HORNS) ID#284255:
http://www.businessweek.com/1998/22/b3580010.htm
By contrast, Yardeni predicts that disaster will strike the economy, corporate profits, and the stock market by late 1999, leading to full-scale recession in the U.S. by the year 2000. Borrowing from Cohen's supertanker metaphor, he thinks the U.S. is facing more than bad weather. I think we're steaming ahead in to an iceberg field, he says.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 11:32
Gollum (@ALBERICH) ID#43349:
Perhaps the main difference is that if you are the user
of them the guy who owns them is at liberty to say how
much they are worth in exchange whenever he wants to.
If you are the owner of them then it is you that has that
power.

If I was only the user I would want to trade them in for
real assets before the owner pulled their value out from
under me.

If I was the owner I would want to use them to borrow
real assets and then I could tell the bearers of the
notes how much I had to pay them back...


Date: Sun May 31 1998 11:23
JTF (Inflation vs deflation) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: Over the last two years I have followed the commodity price indices, especially the CRB spot. One version I have is monthly from 1946 to 1995. In 1972 it took off - about the time the gold window was closed. Since then, it has shown an 8-10 year cyclic pattern, with the baseline rising about 3% per year. Ironically, I wrote on my Mar 97 graph to watch out for a cry0 drop to drop in 1998, with a possible bottom in 1999-2000 at 200. Unfortunately I did not remember my own notes.

There is one other highly significant point that I should mention. I also follow the CRB spot on a daily basis. One day I plotted the data back the last 20 years, only to find out that the 3% inflationary trend is gone, even over the same time period as my monthly older data. It seems that even the CRB spot has been altered somehow to indicate nearly zero average inflation for the last two years. I knew the CPI had been 'cooked' but this did surprise me that the CRB spot was altered also.

I know we still have significant inflation -- about 3-5% yearly. All you need to do is buy something. But -- try to find this in the official indices. So -- our leaders become more sophisticated over the years, and are better at 'cooking the books' than they were in the 60's and 70's.

It all comes down to perception. If the general public believes that there is no inflation, there can be no wage/price spiral, even if the inflation is really there. Of course, just with the stock market, this only works on faith. And faith has a nasty habit of shifting abruptly.


Date: Sun May 31 1998 11:22
mozel (@Y2K) ID#153102:
It's Political Opportunity that won't be missed. If enought thins don't break, they will be covertly broken by covert ops. FEMA will take over. The Emergency will never end. The country will be run like the Post Office. And you will have more people going postal than ever before imaginable.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 11:18
ALBERICH__A (@mozel, CompGeek: I find your discussion fascinating, but..) ID#254112:
Copyright © 1998 ALBERICH__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I'm not able to find out what to do with it.
Mozel,
You wrote:
Now, if you are compensated by Notes which are not owed to you, of which you are not the owner, but merely a USER according to rules and regulations, what happened to your right to your property in your labor?

I do not understand what the difference is between to be the owner of this sh*t note or the user.

In practical terms, not aspiring any kind of revolution and not changing anything; assuming the current terms and conditions:

If I would be able to be the user of $20 million US$ right now I would buy physical gold, silver and quite a lot of South-African mining stocks, make some more investments of which I wouldn't tell my wife about ( like very risky stuff ) and keep enough cash to survive the Y2K event. And: I would quit my job, which in a way I experience as close to slave labor anyhow.

Now let's change terms and conditions in such a way, that I'm not the user of these sh*t dollar bills anymore but the owner. Not considering what effort it would have taken us to get there, let's assume we are there. Now: is there any reason for me to believe I would act differently if I would suddenly have US$20 million available?

I don't think so. That's why I don't get the meaning of the difference between being user or owner of these notes. It remains tooooo abstract. It doesn't reach my life. Therefore I think it is interesting but it belongs into the academic ivory tower.

Alberich the Dwarf

Date: Sun May 31 1998 11:10
mozel (@The Condition of Slavery & The Big Lie) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The condition of slavery is not being in chains. That's imprisonment. Only disobedient slaves need be imprisoned.
The condition of slavery is having no right to your property in labor.
The slave works, but another owns the right to the property produced by
the work.
Now, if you are compensated by Notes which are not owed to you, of which
you are not the owner, but merely a USER according to rules and
regulations, what happened to your right to your property in your labor
?
Put another way, if the Notes are your compensation, are they not the
property produced by your labor ? If the Notes are the property produced
by your labor, but you are not the owner of them, are you not in the
condition of a slave ?

But, you say, I don't feel like a slave. And I say that's how you feel and not the fact of the matter. But, you say, Slavery was prohibited by amendment to the Constitution. And I say, slavery was reserved as a punishment for crime AND bondage to a corporation or to a government was not contemplated. It was that one man be master over another in law that was abolished. Persons and artificial persons were not contemplated. It is perfectly lawful for an artificial person or a corporation to acquire the rights in property of the work of another. A hostile takeover is one corporation putting another in slavery against its will. And did I not tell you that you are almost certainly an artificial person in law by reason of agreements you have entered into ? So, in how many ways are you in the condition of slavery is the only question, not whether or not you are.

So, there are two Big Lies so far 1. That you are Free and 2 that Financial Assets are a store of wealth.

For some reason, the word money is on the positive side of the thinking
ledger. So, regardless of how many times you tell people, the money is
debt, it never registers. The money never moves from the positive to
the negative side in the thinking ledger. It is too monstrous. The
thought, the consequences, are just too monstrous to consider. That is
the secret of the genuine Big Lie. It can't be faced.

But, the truth is all financial assets are just derivatives of debt and
no better than debt. All of the postives are fundamentally negatives.
All of the labor that was expended in acquiring those assets of debt
was stolen by fraud. Financial assets are literally worth less than
zero. It is the Big Lie that makes us think or believe otherwise. As another Big Lie we cannot face keeps us in denial of our condition of slavery.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 11:01
EJ (oris: ) ID#45173:
I have a libertarian's mind with democrat's soul. But as one gets older, the heart gives much over to the mind.

Alchohol is not a drug it's a beverage! Cocaine is not a drug, it's a powder! I love it!

-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 10:58
JTF (Russia crisis and their reserves) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Donald: How you are still there. I think the Russians are playing with us to some degeree ( the western world ) . One area that was given first priority in Russia was defense, Physics and space exploration. Physicists were treated like royalty there, and they had about 5x the theoretical effort of the Western World while I was in training. Many American Physicists won't tell you this, but we were thoroughly outclassed. However, we were far in advance of them with electronics and experimental physics.

So -- what's the point? There probably is a continued core R&D effort still going on in Russia, funded directly by technology sales, probably semi-independent of the 'official' Russian government. This is that the Chinese are doing, so why not the Russians too? This explains the underground base military activity, and the resources for space exploration.

We in the Western World need to make sure that we are not hoodwinked into bailing out the Russian government, when hidden resources are available that they can use. They know that our Western leaders would panic if it looked like all of those nuclear weapons might wind up in the hands of extremists. I am not saying that this is an intentional action to deceive us, because Russia is no longer the monolithic entity that it once was. But this also means that we should have our eyes open so that we don't get caught with our pants down. Given the weakness of our current leaders this is a real possibility.

Have you been able to find anything to confirm the flood of silver to Switzerland from Russia? I personally doubt the truth of this rumor, unless it can be verified. I would certainly like to know what the Russians got in exchange for their silver.

There is another possibility. Russian gold and silver might be sent to Switzerland for safekeeping.


Date: Sun May 31 1998 10:51
Gianni Dioro__A (Aurator et al, NZ) ID#384350:
-
I read in the Harry Schultz Letter that NZ has a giant current account deficit of 8% of GDP, and net foreign debt of 80% of GDP. That likely points for weakness in the floating currency. He says that solid fundamentals, NZ should be able to weather financial & economic turbulence, but he advises investors to watch for sudden capital outflows, which were harbingers of Mexican & E Asian crises. When in big trouble, Kiwis can't fly.

Aurator, sorry for grouping the Isle of Man ( Irish Sea ) into the CI's. I assume the proper term is, The Channel Islands and The Isle of Man. FWIW, a transexual from Israel won the Eurovision song contest, and even though Israel plays in the European Soccer Championships I consider it part of the Middle East, so please forgive my oversight.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 10:48
Silverbaron (Mr. Mick @ 10:07) ID#288295:
There may be something I don't see here, but the amendment published by Squirrel is part of the Roth IRA bill, and it deals with collectibles only as they relate to distributions from IRA plans. See section m, para 3 of this reference: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/26/408.shtml

Date: Sun May 31 1998 10:42
trader ed (Nikkei weekly bar chart) ID#373349:
SOREX: re your post of 4:06. My reading of the Nikkei weekly bar chart is that it is not a pretty sight, nor does it have and immediate positive future. I think that the current slide will continue on down to below 13900. The chart to which you refer does not have enough history to guess beyond the next several months.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 10:40
robnoel__A (EJ you had to do that....this may shock you,there are those very laws on the books now) ID#411112:
it is the same bogus claims by the Democrates,we need Campaign finance reform.....no we just need to uphold the current laws on the books now.........there are more gun laws on the books now all they need to do is uphold them but they don't

Date: Sun May 31 1998 10:40
sharefin (Uncle Sam Wants You For Y2K) ID#284255:
-
http://www.zdnet.com/sr/breaking/980601/980601a.html
The federal government is in dire need of technical resources to fix the Year 2000 problem so dire, in fact, that there is speculation about a possible draft of Cobol programmers.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wetgold
I am no expert in Y2k
More a collator of information.
I try to read between the lines
To grasp the extent to which we will be effected.
Many expert's have many different views
All the pros and cons.
And the press and lawyers
Make mountains out of molehills.

But with the ammount of information available;
http://www.year2000.com/articles/NFarticles.html
One can see that it will not be of little consequence.

Embedded chips are embedded within our society
Business is conducted on a 'just in time' basis.
Society is equiped to run on 'just in time'.

Break the interdependability of these systems
And chaos will ensue.

Food stockpiles are at unprecedented lows
Once again dictated by the 'just in time' concept.

They are already talking about when they
Will start to shut down some power plants
Not if they will.

In UK they have enough confidence
To issue pushbikes - Power co and Telephone Co.

GM has spent 10% of it's Y2k budget
And is concerned about the company's that supply it.

The oil and gas industry think
They will achieve 30% of mission critical.

Concern about the rail systems
As a probable weak link.

The US is considered to be at the forefront of remedial work
The rest of the globe well behind,
What of Japan and the rest of Asia?
Where Y2k work has come up against a brick wall.
A severe lack of funds.

These few troubles plus the many more
Being discussed by all the experts.

Lead me to believe that most are ignorant or overly confident.
Time will tell
But I doubt that the roll over will be anything but smooth.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Oscillators and indicators
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/DPIndicators.htm

Mutual funds - Gold included
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/DPFunds.htm
These files have lots of charts and take a minute to download.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 10:39
Delphi (A few axioms) ID#258142:
Copyright © 1998 Delphi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
1. We have long-term equities market bull. Each significant decline in equities indices was not more then correction.
2. We have long-term Gold market beer. Each significant rally in POG was not more then correction.
3. There are plenty of technical indicators to register the change in trend, when it happened. There are no reliable technical indicators to predict the change in trend.
4. In recent years more than 80% of the time correlation between Dow and POG was between +0.5 and -0.5 . In other words, more than 80% of the time there was no statistically significant dependency between DOW and Gold.
5. Any trade against the trend is a gamble with low probability of success and high reward in case of success.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 10:30
robnoel__A (Mr Mick first that bill is dead second,it is so worded you could drive a bus through it ) ID#411112:

for example....any coin of fineness equal to or exceeding the minimum fineness required for delivery to an exchange......the only acceptable fineness accepted by a exchange ie Comex is 999 fine in the case of gold and 9999 in the case of silver.....pre 333 gold does not meet the requirments of 999 fine nor do Morgan and Peace Dollars they are 90% silver....

Date: Sun May 31 1998 10:22
EJ (panda: hole in my logic?) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I thought that the government DIDNT change the gun laws? Where did the easy access come from A definite non sequitur here.

I did not explain myself clearly ( my wife was trying to drag me out the door. You know... ) . The point is that while the gun control laws remained strict, gun murder rates went up for the reasons JD suggested: that part of what deters murder is strict death penalties. I'm not disagreeing with that. The problem is that while strinct death penalties deter murder by citizens by all means, guns or otherwise, it encourages murder by the government. If you want to reduce deaths of innocent citizens by the government or by each other, them strict death penalties are not going to get you a net gain.

My statement ...allow any joker to own lethal weapons... does not equate to your statement, only the government should own weapons. My position on guns is simply that those who need them and are qualified by rigorous licensing can have them, otherwise no, for the same reason we license truck drivers. If an 18 wheeler in the hands of a criminal or idiot is a deadly weapon, then a deadly weapon in the hands of an idiot or criminal is definately a deadly weapon.

I have a friend in town who owns a jewlrey store. He's been robbed a few times and one of his employees has also been attacked. He owns a gun. That's because he needs one. He has also had a lot of training on how to care for it, keep it away from others, and how not to pee in his pants and shoot anything that moves at the first sign of possible danger. This training was not, however, a requirement. I feel it should be.

-EJ


Date: Sun May 31 1998 10:20
goldfevr@pacbell.net (John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, & Deflation Contagion) ID#434108:
Copyright © 1998 goldfevr@pacbell.net/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All the perplexities, confusions and distresses in America, arise not from defects in the Constitution or confederation, not from want of honor or virtue, as much as from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation. ( - John Adams )


A Golden Cure for World-wide Deflation Contagion
( published 2/2/98, by courtesy of http://www.golden-eagle.com )

From Thomas Jefferson, in an address to his
fellow 'founding fathers' of the new nation:

Thomas Jefferson: If the American people ever
allow the banking system to control their money,
first by inflation, then by deflation; their children
will one day wake up homeless on the continent
their fathers conquered.

The world's financial and monetary systems may
be likened to a gigantic teetering circus-tent. And
when the tent finally collapses. It will not be the
center-post that goes first; it will be the side-posts;
and even the stakes.

The stakes are the Asian Tiger economies. The
side-posts are the most important trading
partners of the U.S. This includes the strategic
national economies of: Hong Kong/China, Japan,
Canada, Mexico, South America and Europe. The
center-post is the U.S. economy, including its
stock markets.

The tent is the world-economy, built on a
mountain of artificial money and credit, created out
of thin air, by a politically engineered and
dominated central banking system, that has
mastered the art of legalized counterfeiting. It has
taken generations, to perfect this art and master
this tune, that plays to the drum-beat of billions of
dollars of false wealth created per week.

Not too many years ago, it was against the law to
counterfeit money, including by governments or
banks.

And now what: Gold going up?…in the midst of
spreading Deflation? How can this be!

I've been visiting the Kitco site for about a year
now; and it is evident from the discussions there,
that most of us are still deluded by, and caught up
in, the artificial Santa-Clause Economy built on the
BIG LIE: money and credit created out of nothing.
This insures an over-extended, artificial, seemingly
benevolent economic summer that may last for
generations. All the while the masses
misperceptions grow, while the money-masters of
power, in the world, in control of interest rates, of
credit availability, and of the volume of money
flooding the world….they thus become economic
dictators in hiding….ruling over the ultimate value
of the money you earn, spend, invest, and save for
a 'rainy-day or retirement, or the kids'' education.

The world over central banks have evolved with
their governments blessings into a quiet, awesome
club of collusion and unbridled power. They hold
in their hands the destinies of nations, and the fate
of millions. Reginald McKenna, a 19th century
banker of England said: Give me control of a
nation's money, and I care not who makes the
laws.

It is, in fact, very natural, for gold to go up, as
deflation intensifies. Just as it is very natural for
gold to go up in inflationary times, as well. That is
because the inflation and deflation are happening
to the paper currency, the artificial money of the
realm. Inflation and deflation do not happen to
gold. And it is artificial, unbacked money and
credit, once it is spawned out across the world,
that ebbs and flows by the billions and trillions,
thus distorting and manipulating the economies of
the world's nations. Once this spreading cancer is
set in motion, the economies and countries grow
increasingly out of balance, and ultimately out of
control. And it almost always starts showing up in
an obvious way with with currency instability,
which was the root of the problem to begin with -
unreal currencies. Just ask the hundreds of
thousands of Asians who have just been laid off,
or reduced to 30% of their previous income, almost
overnight.

The ignorance, misconceptions and confusion
grow, because we seem to live in enduringly good
times. And the BIG LIE – that artificial money
created out of nothing is real money -- has had
generations of time to take root: in our institutions
of higher learning, in the board rooms of our most
brilliant corporations, at the family dinner table
discussions of what we studied in school today,
and in the not so noble halls of government offices
across our fair land. What we have failed to
understand, or have forgotten, is that the basic
standard, the unit of a nation's money -- the
medium of exchange and store of value -- is the
foundation of, and the fundamental building block,
upon which, a nation's entire economy is built. It is
essential for this unit, this standard of money, to
be freely, willingly , and universally acceptable
because it is stable, real, and can be trusted, by
any and every one.

Historically only gold money, or money and credit
units convertible to and backed by gold, have
endured as real money, immune to both inflation
and deflation. Gold is independent and free of
manipulation and control by any governmental
powers and special interests. John Adams' words
of 200 years ago are just as timely and important
today: All the perplexities, confusions and
distresses in America arise, not from defects in the
Constitution or confederation, not from want of
honor or virtue, as much as from downright
ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and
circulation.

Real money, gold, endures as stable and trusted
currency, regardless of governments that rise and
fall, and economies that go through there natural,
moderate, non-manipulated cycles of economic
summer and economic winter. Politicians resist
gold-based money, because it strictly limits them,
and disciplines their lust for power and control,
along with their intimate banking friends. This
means that economies no longer remain in
balance, and ultimately, over-extended economic
summers, are followed by inevitable, and very
painful economic winters. All of this excess to
excess, is unnecessary, and would be avoidable, if
a gold standard money system were established
and honored, among the community of nations.

The brilliant Ludwig von Mises, of the Austrian
School of Economics put it this way: The
eminence of the gold standard consists in the fact
that it makes the determination of the monetary
unit's purchasing power independent of the
measures of governments. It wrests from the
hands of the economic czar their most
redoubtable instrument.. It makes it impossible for
them to inflate. That is why the gold standard is
furiously attacked by all those who expect they will
benefit by bounties from the seemingly
inexhaustible government purse. ( The truth and
wisdom from this master-teacher of true
economics, might help us better understand why
there has been so much media coverage of
reported central bank gold sales, the last year or
two. )

Now, the last several decades of mushrooming
credit-creation world-wide, has led to a debt-ridden
international economy with careening markets and
collapsing paper currencies. This debt-ridden,
artificially propped up, international economy is
symptomized by over-built real-estate, with grossly
inflated values. World-wide, property values are
beginning to feel the effects of spreading deflation.
The recent deflationary free-fall in Hong Kong
property values, will likely spread next to Japan
and China. The deflationary world economy is like
a Titanic, and their are never going to be enough
IMF buckets to bail her out.

Also symptomatic of this international economy
beginning to mire in debt and growing deflationary
momentum, is the overcapacity of industrial and
technological production. This has resulted from
first of all, a glut of easy credit for the asking, and
now, the world is not only awash in red-ink, but
also in a glut of goods and services that most
people don't want, and fewer and fewer can really
afford. These kinds of glaring symptoms are the
recipe for spreading, world-wide deflation, with
ominous implications. When desperate Asian
nations want to import new cars to sell here at half
last year's prices, the protectionism, trade barriers
and trade-wars will be looming right behind.

For lifeboats, we best look to the historical lessons
of gold: gold unassailable, real money, and gold as
a haven of capital preservation in times of
economic crisis and currency turmoil. We got
ourselves into this mess by allowing our
governments and special interests to divorce our
money from gold backing and convertibility. At one
time, our currency was originally as good as gold,
a virtual receipt for real money. It was even
printed, right there on each and every U.S. piece
of currency: payable to the bearer on demand in
gold. It's enough to make our grandparents
generation roll over in their graves.

Deflation happens to artificial currencies and credit
instruments at certain times, just as inflation does
at other times, because they can be controlled and
manipulated by the powers that be. Naturally
stable economies, based on real money, are
immune to inflation and deflation, and the powers
that be -- their hands are tied, by the immunity of,
and independence of gold. I have an early 1930s'
chart of HM overlaying the DJIA. In 1973, I was
giving economics seminars in the SF Bay Area
entitled: What Makes the U.S. Economy
Tick…and Why it is a Ticking Time-Bomb. The
economy's turned out to have a longer fuse than
I'd figured/surmised, at that time. But now, the fuse
is, indeed, running out. From early 1930 to 1932
Homestake Mining appreciated approximately
500% while the Dow was crashing in wave after
deflationary wave, wiping out the livelihoods and
fortunes of millions who never knew what hit
them……sort of the way growing numbers of
people are feeling in Asia. And the Asian
Contagion is spreading, regardless of our
self-absorbed, insular, wishful thinking.

Admittedly the U.S. government called in
( confiscated ) the American people's gold in the
early '30s - at the old price at about $20/oz.; and
then our President FDR 'pegged' it at $35/oz. He
was stuck between a rock and hard-place, and this
no doubt helped the HM price along its bull market
way. But I wouldn't wait for another confiscation, or
another FDR. The new baby bull market in gold is
here, now. And before its over, there's going to be
quite a stampede. All those mutual fund holders of
the '80s & '90s, will not be able to get out of the
same 'sell' door at the same time; it could get very
messy, interesting, but messy.

Ultimately, after the current painful but cleansing
cycle runs its course, there will be a new dawn,
and new day. The peoples of the nations of the
world, their governments and bankers included,
will at last return to the discipline and integrity of
gold-redeemable money, and gold-backed and
gold-defined credit instruments. These will be the
basic monetary building-blocks, the life-giving
ingredients -- like a healthy, renewed, purified
economic blood-stream -- that will be the
foundation for new and flourishing economies.
This will come, in a new millennium of economic
nation building, in which a thriving world economy
will create and produce enough for all peoples,
everywhere.

May all peoples, of every nation, creed and color,
have an equal opportunity to contribute; and enjoy
the fruits of their work, and their entrepreneurial
talents. May we all learn to live in a new world, in a
cooperative while yet competitive, international
community of nations, committed to the dignity of
the human soul, the inherent freedom of the
human spirit, and the sanctity of human life.

David Blair Macrory

2 February 1998


Back to Gold
Editorials



Copyright © 1997 & 1998 vronsky and westerman

Date: Sun May 31 1998 10:15
Selby (Another Decade of Golden Gloom from Switerland?) ID#286230:
Found on SI GolDigger:

http://www.btimes.co.za/98/0531/news/news4.htm

Date: Sun May 31 1998 10:14
robnoel__A (EJ...we agree on something...Wet Gold..if lawyers were not paying so much attention to the Y2K) ID#411112:

problem I would agree with you,by the way you may of not read about dow 10000 I have and there are concerned....here is a lawyers web page on Y2K......

http://www.2000law.com

Date: Sun May 31 1998 10:07
Mr. Mick (Did everyone see Squirrel's posting regarding collectible coins......) ID#345321:
as defined by the US Govt? Seems there is a bill to take almost all coins off that list. See early this morning ( 12 - 6 am ) .

Date: Sun May 31 1998 10:05
tolerant1 (Mr. Mick) ID#373284:
To hear that things are WELL there...Hmmmmmmmmm...tears of HAPPINESS are watering lawns on the Island that is Long...HAPPY FOR YOU and the LADY!!!

Poor, nah, GIVING is TRULY REWARDING.........NAMASTE'...

Date: Sun May 31 1998 10:03
sorex (MS about the Yen) ID#27499:
-
...Monetarist theory: Japan's financial system is still under such stress that, even with the recent announcement of more aggressive cleanup measures, there is still a huge amount of money left to print. How much is debatable. One yardstick, however, is to compare the decline of the money multipiers ( ratios of M2 to base money, in this case ) for the US and Japan. During the US S&L crisis period, the US money multiplier dropped like a stone ( from nearly 12 to just above 8 ) , as the Fed printed money furiously. For Japan, the drop of the multiplier has so far been about half of what it was in the US. This suggests a long way to go. Also, Japan's financial sector problem appears to be many times the size of the S&L problem. This suggests an even longer way to go. The only restraining factor is that these ratios are based on a conventional definition of base money, where an expanded one may be needed. That is, the BoJ has started giving banks BoJ bills instead of reserve deposits when market operations in support of the financial system are carried out. ( See May 11, 1998 FX Pulse, p. 11-12. ) If one adds these bills to Japanese base money, the drop of the multiplier ( from about 13 to about 9, that is by 4x ) is about the same as in the US during the S&L period. Hence, under adjusted base money, the yen change would be ended if the Japanese financial sector problem were the same size as the S&L problem. Since the latter is not likely to be the case, my conclusion is that the monetarist approach, connected with financial sector weakness, argues for much more yen weakness, with little break.
In summary, some theories suggest that the yen will weaken only a little more, and some that it will weaken a lot more. None ( except PPP using export prices ) suggests an appreciation. The risks remain tilted towards more yen weakness.
http://www.ms.com/GEF/index.html

Date: Sun May 31 1998 10:02
goldfevr@pacbell.net (Donald's 5/31 post @ 7:49 re. Deflation) ID#434108:
Copyright © 1998 goldfevr@pacbell.net/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thank-you Donald, for this most important reminder, and clarification.
The respected publication - Bank Credit Analyst, carries many useful and revealing charts; among them is The Velocity of Demand Deposits. Apparently, what eludes most students of economics/histors, and most investors, is the fact that:
there are two ( 2 ) components to monetary ( & credit ) inflation/deflation:
#1.
The increase/decrease in the volume/amount of money & credit;
and ( -the one most people miss: )
#2.
The rate of 'turn-over', velocity, or use of that money/credit.

The amount of money can be increased, ad infinitum; but if that increased quantity is not used, we can still experience deflation. If the turn-over, or velocity of money, is decreasing .. as it is now.. this is
deflationary.

And deflation is beginning to spread, like a terminal cancer, across the
toxic political and financial landscape of the world's artificial economies and babbling nation-states.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 09:56
EJ (WetGold: your position that Y2K is real but not life altering) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I can see from your bio that you have a lot of expertise to bring to bear to assess the extent of the Y2K problem. You mention many companies, such as Bellcore and AT&T, that you have consulted to. I have had personal experience with these and many other companies in the past few months. I can tell you that they are indeed spending vast sums to fix Y2K problems, and I'm there to get them to spend some of those dollars on the software I sell that helps them manage Y2K projects. But over beers in the evening, off the record, they will express the gravest concern that many bugs in many mission critical systems of their own of third party vendors will not be fixed in time, and that just as much money and effort is expended to defend against the law suits they expect to get hit with as they expend to fix the problems. If you still have relationships with some of the people you worked with at these companies you might want to call them and get an idea of how they are feeling about their progress to date on Y2K fixes and their prospects for success by Jan. 2000. You may be surprised. I was.

These are not, for the most part, hard problems to fix. It is a matter of scale. To my mind the issue is not whether or not all mission-critial systems will be fixed, because I am certain not all will be fixed. The question is what will be the aggregate impact of these many problems? This is very hard to assess. Will we be inconvenienced or will we suddenly find ourselves scrambling to figure out how we once conducted our lives circa 1950 before the entire supply chain -- electric power, telecommunications, business transactions of all kinds -- was computerized?
-EJ


Date: Sun May 31 1998 09:53
Mr. Mick (Good morning, Tolerant1, - things go well here.............) ID#345321:
Appreciate your wishes. My, you must be getting poor, pressing sovereigns into the hands of all your friends and relatives! :- )

Date: Sun May 31 1998 09:50
tolerant1 (Mr. Mick) ID#373284:
My LOVE is TRULY...every where you and the Lady are...NAMASTE'

Date: Sun May 31 1998 09:45
tolerant1 (WetGold) ID#373284:
Namaste'

Date: Sun May 31 1998 09:44
WetGold (@tolerant1) ID#187218:
Thanx! That's '2' I now owe U.
.
.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 09:41
Mr. Mick (Asia in big trouble.............Reuters) ID#345321:
-
Sunday May 31, 1:11 am Eastern Time

FORECAST-Hard landing for Asia as growth shrinks

By Phil Smith

SINGAPORE, May 29 ( Reuters ) - Economic growth across Asia is grinding to halt as the fall-out
from last year's currency crisis settles across the region, and economists are slashing forecasts for
gross domestic product ( GDP ) on a regular basis.

The problem is that domestic economies have not been dug out of a hole by a boom in exports, even
though Asian goods are much more competitive abroad given the 15 to 80 percent drop in the value
of regional currencies from pre-crisis levels.

``In the aftermath of the Asian currency devaluations last year, many commentators in the West and
Asia expected a wave of cheap Southeast Asian and Korean exports to come crashing onto the
shores of the G7 markets,'' said Santander Investment economist Nicholas Brooks.

They're still waiting.

As expected, the flip side of the sharp currency devaluations has been a dramatic improvement in
balance of payments positions, but this has come as a result of collapsing imports, not soaring
exports.

In fact, export growth among the nine ASEAN countries has actually declined in the past few
months, mainly because of a lack of bank financing and weak Japanese demand for imports as the
economy there remains stagnant.

Trade with Japan accounts for roughly half of regional trade, but on top of this the sharp contraction
of the domestic economies themselves has also hit intra-regional trade.

Analysts say Asia's recovery will be ``L'' shaped at best and many economies will remain in their
divebomber trajectories for several months, perhaps longer, thwarting official projections for a
resumption of growth.

They said while some of the government growth forecasts look hopelessly optimistic, officials are
understandably, maybe even unwittingly, predisposed to constructing a best-case scenario.

The latest round of government revisions to growth forecasts are probably doomed to further
revision and data already published suggests official estimates of growth contraction this year have
already been reached in the first quarter.

The following is a regional breakdown of growth prospects.

The generally accepted definition of a recession is two quarters of economic contraction.

HONG KONG

At the end of last week, Hong Kong told the world its economy had contracted by a worrying two
percent in the first quarter of this year.

Analysts and the markets had expected such a figure, but it still was highly significant as this is the
first quarterly contraction in Hong Kong in 13 years and many are now talking about a recession in
the territory.

Economists say zero or negative GDP is ``very likely'' this year and the government has said its 3.5
percent growth forecast looked ``unattainable,'' although it had no revised figure.

``It is highly risky to make a full year forecast in the current situation,'' said Hong Kong's Financial
Secretary Donald Tsang after the figures were released.

A Reuters survey last August found economists forecasting that 1998 growth would match the 5.3
percent seen in 1997.

MALAYSIA

Malaysia has also been notable, showing a sharp and generally unexpected slowdown in growth. On
Saturday, published figures showed the first quarterly contraction in growth since 1985.

First quarter GDP declined 1.8 percent compared with the same quarter last year, a figure that
contrasted sharply with an average forecast by economists for 1.7 percent growth.

Malaysia is a good example of how both market and official growth forecasts have been pared
back.

A poll of economists on April 22 forecast GDP for 1998 at 0.8 percent while one in March saw 2.2
percent and one in January 3.2 percent.

Since the April poll, many had pencilled in a contraction this year and prior to Saturday's figures,
some were talking about one to two percent full year contraction. Given the unexpected first quarter
fall, these forecasts can only be revised downwards.

The government has also been scaling back. In March it revised its forecast to two to three percent
from an earlier projection of four to five percent. It is currently sticking to its 2.5 percent growth
forecast.

Last year growth came in pretty much as forecast at 7.6 percent.

SINGAPORE

Despite sound economic fundamentals, Singapore is suffering and some analysts are even talking
about a recession, although most are predicting some growth.

Analysts say the fallout from political uncertainties in Indonesia and looming recession in nearby
economies, including Japan and China, could inflict more pain in the second half of the year.

A Reuters poll of 13 financial institutions projected growth of 1.6 percent in 1998, which would
compare with 1997's 7.8 percent.

``We're still downgrading for the quarters ahead because of pressure from Indonesia and possible
risk of a recession in Malaysia,'' said Lee Yeong Seng, economist with Nikko Research.

The 1997 growth figure of 7.8 percent was on the higher side of forecasts being made in the middle
of last year.

INDONESIA

Indonesia is perhaps in the most perilous state of the regional economies with its political problems,
spiralling inflation, huge overseas debt and banking sector woes.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has forecast the economy will shrink
by 8.5 percent while the government in April forecast four percent GDP contraction.

The IMF's top Asia expert Hubert Neiss has said the economy could contract 10 percent or more
this year, but even this pales when compared with some analysts who are predicting 20 percent
contraction.

In the aftermath of the rioting and looting that culminated in ex-president Suharto's resignation, Mari
Pangestu, an economist at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ) , came up with
the 20 percent figure.

``The economy might contract by between 10 and 20 percent while inflation might reach between 70
and 100 percent this year,'' she said.

``Unemployment may reach as high as 14 to 16 million people by the end of the year while the
number of those living below the poverty line may increase to 58 million as compared to 22.5 million
before the economic crisis.''

In 1997, the 4.6 percent figure fell short of mid-year forecasts for around seven to eight percent
growth.

THE PHILIPPINES

First quarter GDP growth in the Philippines was 1.7 percent against market expectations of 2.2
percent, with gross national product ( GNP ) at 2.5 percent against forecasts of 2.9 percent.

A drop in demand for investment as a result of the Asia crisis a key factor in the slowdown.

The government has predicted full-year GDP growth of three percent, and the IMF has said this is
``realistic and achievable.''

The IMF said an improvement in the agriculture sector for the rest of the year coupled with the
recent decline in interest rates and a possible recovery of the construction sector may help the
Philippines achieve its full-year economic target.

In 1997, growth at 5.8 percent was in line with mid-year forecasts.

THAILAND

The Thai baht crisis in May/June of last year sparked the whole regional crisis when the central bank
finally caved into pressure and allowed the baht to float on July 2.

Its economic slowdown has been savage but the government seems determined to carry through the
IMF economic reforms.

Some analysts reckon Thailand's economic forecasts, which are made in conjunction with the IMF,
are realistic.

GDP is expected to contract between 4.5 and 5.5 percent, which is much worse than the 3.0 to 3.5
percent figures in a February forecast.

But some are more pessimistic and say a collapse in manufacturing output -- which showed a fall of
21.2 percent year-on-year fall in March -- could pave the way for a bigger yearly contraction.

In 1997, the 0.6 percent growth figure fell way short of forecasts for a three to four percent figure.

TAIWAN

Taiwan stands out in terms of growth. In the first quarter it posted GDP growth of 5.92 percent on a
year-on-year basis.

Estimates for the full year are being revised down, but only very slightly.

On May 21, the cabinet's Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics decided to
revise downward its forecast for full-year 1998 economic growth to 6.02 percent from the 6.18
percent announced in February.

Private analysts said Taiwan's gross domestic growth in 1998 may be cut to around 5.8 percent
from previously expected 6.0-6.2.

Andrew Freris, managing director of Asia research at Bank of America based in Hong Kong, said
the ``probability is high'' that Taiwan may face further slowdown in economic growth.

The 6.8 percent growth figure in 1997 was pretty much in line with mid-year forecasts.

SOUTH KOREA

First quarter GDP shrank 3.8 percent year-on-year, the worst contraction since a 7.8 percent
shrinkage in the fourth quarter of 1980.

After the figures were announced, a senior Bank of Korea official said GDP may shrink by 3.0 to
4.0 percent in 1998.

``We will not try to raise GDP at the expense of other measures such as stabilising the exchange
rate, maintaining a high interest rate and inducing foreign capital inflows,'' Sang Kyung Kwak, a
member of the Central Bank's monetary board told reporters.

But some analysts are more bearish and cite concern over the health of the corporate and banking
sectors.

In 1997, South Korea matched many forecasts for growth of around 5.5 percent.

CHINA

China has targeted GDP growth at 8.0 percent this year, the same as last year's target. But
economists said China would face more hurdles this year because of the regional financial crisis.

GDP growth in the first quarter this year was an annualised 7.2 percent, against 8.8 percent for all of
1997 and 9.7 percent in 1996.

Official forecasts on China's GDP growth for this year have been adjusted downward since late last
year.

Last December, the State Information Centre, a think-tank under the cabinet's State Development
and Planning Commission, predicted China's 1998 GDP would grow 9.6 percent in 1998.

Earlier this month, the centre forecast China's GDP would grow an annualised 7.8 percent in the
second quarter of this year.

Last month, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the State Statistical Bureau jointly
forecast China's 1998 GDP growth at 8.2 percent.

Late last year, Qiu Xiaohua, chief economist of the State Statistical Bureau, forecast 1998 GDP
growth at 9.0 percent.

AUSTRALIA

The 1998/99 budget forecast GDP growth at three percent, down from the 3.25 percent forecast in
the mid-year review.

Both the Government and Central Bank have recently said growth would have been up to one
percentage point higher next year but for Asian crisis and regional downturn.

But most private sector economists do not go along with the official forecasts and look for a lower
figures. They said 2.5 percent is the maximum that could be achieved, but one was far more bearish
and predicted zero growth this year.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 09:40
tolerant1 (WetGold) ID#373284:
You go right ahead and speak your mind...George, Thomas and Ben will be over for breakfast soon, ALL OF US WILL...defend you...

Date: Sun May 31 1998 09:26
WetGold (Another Y2K set of lies and disception...) ID#187218:
Copyright © 1998 WetGold/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Many KITCO Y2K experts get quite upset with me for supplying a contrary position to the commonly disseminated theories of the Year 2000 Problem. Most of these discussions are civil and others attempt to personnaly attack me because of spelling, syntax, or nature of my postings. I generally try to avoid the topic unless provoked or read BUNK on KITCO or at other sites.

I've just read the following article listed below. It is typical of the bias related to Y2K. It is no different than the bias we all feel toward PMs in the Financial section of your local paper or the down-playing of the importance of PMs in the political world, Greenspan, Rubin, FRB, etc. It is the same bias. It is great news. A guaranteed headline grabber for the next 2 years. I'm surprised no one is creating a similar scenario about the DOW reaching 10,000 - after all - many applications and computer programs cannot handle the extra digit for calculating 401 ( k ) data and mutual fund projections ( lotsa money in the financial sector ) . Why not ? The Y2K issue is a larger story since the above scenario is a sub-set of a more generic problem.

Many of you know my position. Y2K is real -but- NOT life-threatening and NOT life-altering. It is being resolved and has been getting attention. The FAA and other government agencies are spending tons of money on the problem - business cases are being written to get more money - contractors are scaring the pants off local Congressman to attain new contracts - yada-yada-yada. Let's set the record straight here --- I believe the Government SHOULD pay contractors to resolve these issues --- BUT not at the expense of causing PANIC.

Finally, for those not familiar with me ( sorry if I bore others who've read my posts before but as others need to legitimize their positions I need to send a message that I am no novice with an unfounded opinion ) : I've worked on computers and associated peripheral issues since the late 1960's with many positions in science, engineering, and mathematics. Some applications in computing include hardware/software design, DSP algorithms in RADAR, theoretical development in mobile communications, Fading Channel modeling for densely populate areas - I've taught many courses in these topics at several levels - I've consulted with ALL MAJOR telephony companies and associated private and government agencies - I've held the highest level government security clearance and privileged to be past Vice-Chairman and Chairman of IEEE. I sit on numerous industrial forums including ISDN, ITU, Bellcore ... Many of my peers of same age and experience are still pushing the career envelope to make a name or because their egos have not taken a rest. Personally, I made a decision many years ago that I would keep focused on my long-term objective to make me a better person and to achieve those things that I want out of life. I have no 'axe-to-grind' and need to posture my positions to acquire more money or prestige in my circle of collegues. My positions are mine and will be based solely on what I feel is right - not someone elses convoluted theories.

In addition, I am not a technical 'geek'. I've had many interests in my life including music ( I was in a very popular band in college and have several studio demo tapes - I've also played in clubs throughout the USA, travelled to Europe and England to lunch with very popular musicians ) . In earlier years, I was selling professional photographs to wrestling magazines when I was 12 years old. This was fun since I was making money and seeing my stuff in print up until my mid-teens. I could go on forever ( with just my KITCO monicker alone ) BUT I tell you this to show that my life was not of a computer 'nerd'.

I am not saying that those views contrary to mine are bad - they are the view of someone else with different experiences than mine and they are just as welcome to display those view for all to see.

PLEASE NOTE AGAIN::::: Y2K is REAL --BUT-- NOT life-threatening an NOT life-altering.

I've been considering NEVER posting another issue regarding Y2K. I am not sure if I could or I would just not post at all. Although I get no support on this forum I hope that I provide some insight to an alternative view of which is helpful to someone --- we shall see. Thanks for reading a post of this length.


Topic: Y2K News

Year 2000 bug threatens phone service

San Jose Mercury News
05/18/98 USA TODAY

Posted at 10:18 p.m. PDT Monday, May 18, 1998

Year 2000 bug threatens phone service

Usa Today

NEW YORK -- Make a phone call on Jan. 1, 2000, and there's a good chance that the call won't go through.

There's a 50 percent to 60 percent chance each major carrier will suffer at least one failure of a mission critical system, said Lou Marcoccio, a research director with The Gartner Group. And that's despite the industry spending more than two years and billions of dollars to rid their systems of Year 2000 bugs.

The telecommunications industry trails banks and insurers in fixing Year 2000 problems, making some network trouble inevitable as the millennium nears, experts warn.

Small, midsize and foreign-based carriers will be affected most. France, Germany, Japan as well as many countries in southeast Asia, central Africa and Latin America have spent less time and resources to fix the problem.

U.S. fire and police department dispatch systems are vulnerable, too, the Federal Communications Commission said. So are many older corporate switchboards, owned and operated by telephone users, not telephone companies.

At the heart of the problem are software programs that must be rewritten to differentiate the year 1900 from 2000.

Telephone networks are computerized at every level, from the transmission of calls to billing and ordering of supplies. Programs throughout the system must be fixed. Every piece of problem equipment must be identified, given a priority, fixed and tested.

Failures could range from billing problems to a complete lack of phone service. It's impossible to say how widespread they will be or how long they will last, Marcoccio said.

But ``no one is putting telecommunications companies under the microscope the way bankers are examined,'' said David Baker, a technology analyst at Schwab Washington Research Group. The FCC can't impose a solution but it has sent letters to hundreds of companies calling for action. FCC Commissioner Michael Powell said ``the vast majority of police and fire equipment is not Year 2000 compliant.''

Gartner said big U.S. carriers are spending $70 million to $400 million each to fix their Year 2000 problem. AT&T, the largest, expects to spend $463 million on the problem in 1997 and 1998. It has hundreds of people working on the problem full time, said AT&T's John Pasqua.

SBC Communications Group is spending $250 million to fix its Year 2000 problem.

The potential legal liabilities are huge. ``If some of these systems go down, you are going to have a lot of cases,'' said Steven Brummel, a partner with the Weil Gotshal & Manges office in Brussels, Belgium.

http://www.freerepublic.com/

Date: Sun May 31 1998 08:45
Donald (@Sorex; Krugman comments on the Japanese liquidity trap.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980529/japan_yen__1.html

Date: Sun May 31 1998 08:40
Donald (Korean troubles worsen) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980531/korea_econ_1.html

Date: Sun May 31 1998 08:28
sorex (Donald) ID#27499:
Agree with you. Citings from Krugman indicates also him changing his opinion about anyone´s ability to control deflation? IMHO the day by day struggle to keep the Japanese financial system working on the other hand and to keep the U.S. eguity bubble from bursting on the other hand, creates a true balance of horror. If one collapses there is no power in the earth to keep the economies of the world rid from the deflationary spiral. Perhaps this is what Krugman has come to think?

JM

Date: Sun May 31 1998 08:06
Donald (Russian miners have not been paid for six months but...) ID#26793:
Copyright © 1998 Donald/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Russia finds money to fund space station

MOSCOW - A day after financial problems threatened to drop Russia
from participation in an international space station, the country's top
space official announced Friday that Russia will remain an active
partner in the project. Russian Space Agency chief Yuri Koptev met
Thursday night with finance officials after the Cabinet had rejected his
plea for more money. Russia's contributions to the station have been
delayed repeatedly because of financial problems, but officials said
certain extra-budgetary sources will enable Russia to cover its $240
million in space station expenses this year.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 07:49
Donald (@Sorex) ID#26793:
Copyright © 1998 Donald/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I think you need to re-think your position that it is not possible to have a deflation. The Fed did create money in the 30's; the deflation was not the result of a Fed misjudgement. The deflation was caused by the involuntary destruction of credit dollars. Credit dollar destruction was at a faster pace than Fed dollar creation. The Fed can create all the dollars it wants. That does not solve the problem. The Fed has no way to get the newly created dollars into the hands of those who need them. Banks refuse to lend the new dollars to the needy and they remain on deposit in the bank. This is what is happening in Japan today. Deflation is a certainty. Trillions of credit dollars are slated for destruction in the form of derivatives, share values, mortgages, business loans, credit card defaults etc. The Fed is powerless to prevent what is about to happen.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 05:32
mozel (@CompGeek) ID#153102:
What I said was two UNLIKE things at the same time.
A store of value is unlike a Debt.
A substance is unlike a Debt.

This has nothing to do with debits and credits in double entry bookeeping.

I suggest you ponder my post The Condition of Slavery and determine if your compensation is satisfactory.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 05:23
CompGeek (Mozel got your last post) ID#343259:
Sorry about posting out of sequence. Just got your last post. I will give it thought and comment tomorrow. Thank you.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 05:21
CompGeek (@Mozel Good-night) ID#343259:
Copyright © 1998 CompGeek/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I hadn't realized we would be at this exchange so long.

As I said, I have become comfortable with my understanding

within the accounting domain ( where one thing is ALWAYS 2 things at the same time ) . I am willing to unlearn that if it does not track the physical system we are trying to examine. I appreciate the inquiry with you. I don't think I ever had a clear explanation of monetization or currency creation in school. Perhaps it was just presented as a given. You and I are about examining that given as not-so-given. Thank you.

I'll pick up tomorrow. Good night Friend.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 05:19
mozel (@CompGeek) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You are inadvertendly volunteering yourself into a slave labor camp.

I think it will save time if you work forward from the word capital and do not start by saying capital is money.

Land is capital. Gold is capital. Silver is capital. Other PM's are capital. Other SUBSTANCES are less suitable because they deteriorate over time. Capital is a substance which gives unvarying service over time.

Paper does not give unvarying service over time. No matter how many numbers you print on it, it does not become capital.

Error begets error. If you capitalize a corporation or make deposits in a bank with something besides capital, it's a contradiction.

If you only consider medium of exchange in thinking of money, you leave out the most important function of money, which is unit of account and you leave out a third function which is store of value. Without a substance of some kind as the unit of account, money is entirely legal fiction arbitrarily changeable and is not a store of value.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 05:05
CompGeek (Mozel Re something being 2 things at once) ID#343259:
Copyright © 1998 CompGeek/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I'm not so sure there is a contradiction.

It depends on your frame of reference, it would seem to me.

For example, since we are dealing with a representational game called money, where money represents labor, capital, debt, etc, and

since there is a longstanding representational model in existance called accounting which is basically, a closed system of sorts, in that model, we can determine the rules.

When I invest a dollar in my company. The one dollar is *simultaneously* an asset ( the dollar is in my bank account ) , and equity ( my increased share in the company.

When I heard the Fed tell me that the creation of a dollar was simultanous with an equal debt to a member bank, I understood the accounting domain they were referring to. I think, in this domain, it can be true that one dollar can be both money and a debt.

I once heard a comedian talk about Macrobiotics, and the yin and yang of it. I can't remember the whole spiel, but it had the following flavor, An apple! Ah Hah! It's Yin, right, because it's a fruit! But no, it's Yang, because it's compact. But no, it's yin because it's sweet, but no, it's yang because its from a tree, but no, it's yin because it grows above the ground.... etc. It went on for about 15 minutes.

Point is, If you want to have a representational model in which the rules are that something can only be one thing and one thing only, and that excludes being any other thing, then I think that the accounting model is not the correct model to use, and will prove to be less useful in our discussions.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 04:50
CompGeek (Mozel FRN) ID#343259:
What I am trying to say, is that money, *could* be anything we agreed upon. It's a way of keeping score, a transactional medium. Now it *happens to be* a Federal Reserve *Note* ( ie debt ) in the USA. Since it is a Fiat currency ( it is ) I'd be more in favor of having it based on nothing, than based on debt. Of course, if it were based on a redeemable asset, it would be better. How about monetizing the National Park System? Each dollar represents so much land, like those square inch sales. It would be *way* more fun than the current monetization of member bank debt.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 04:48
mozel (@CompGeek) ID#153102:
You said the paper FRN is both money and debt. To say a thing can be two unlike things at the same time is a contradiction. From that error, anything can be deduced.


Date: Sun May 31 1998 04:37
mozel (@CompGeek) ID#153102:
Well, you are on the right track. But have made a seriously wrong turn.
If they can say a dollar is a dollar by fiat, they can compel anything. There is no basis for freedom at all. And, why, in fact, should they even bother to compensate you at all ? And the closer we get to pure fiat, the clearer the slave labor nature of paper money becomes. In fact, since you are not the owner of the Note you receive as compensation, we are already there.


Date: Sun May 31 1998 04:35
CompGeek (@Mozel re FRN's) ID#343259:
Copyright © 1998 CompGeek/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I don't know if you were replying to my comment about chains. If so, I was using the reference more figuratively to mean controlling another whether physical or ( in the case of FRN's ) more subtly.

I think the problem in understanding this issue for me was resolved ( whether rightly or wrongly is yet to be determined :- ) ) when I realized that the FRN was *both* money and debt.

True, it is debt, and your comments about rights to labor are accurate, when the owner of debt is a Fed Reserve Member Bank. But it is *also* simultaneously money, by fiat, and is legal tender for all debts public and private.

I could well imagine, that the Coca-cola corporation, if they had been put in the position to create a money supply, instead of the member banks, might have said, Gee, lets monetize Coca-cola bottle caps. In order to get any money into the system, they would have to by a lotta coke eh what?

To expand the subject a bit, just *how* does American Express get away with printing their purple money? I've never been able to figure that one out! Why couldn't anyone with sufficient capital pull off the same stunt?


Date: Sun May 31 1998 04:18
mozel (@The Condition of Slavery) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It's not being in chains. That's imprisonment. Only disobedient slaves need be imprisoned.

The condition of slavery is having no right to your property in labor.
The slave works, but another owns the right to the property produced by the work.

Now, if you are compensated by Notes which are not owed to you, of which you are not the owner, but merely a USER according to rules and regulations, what happened to your right to your property in your labor ?

Put another way, if the Notes are your compensation, are they not the property produced by your labor ? If the Notes are the property produced by your labor, but you are not the owner of them, are you not in the condition of a slave ?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 04:16
CompGeek (Creation of FRN) ID#343259:
Copyright © 1998 CompGeek/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A few years ago I called up the Federal Reserve.

I asked them How does a dollar get created?

The answer was, A dollar is created by the recognition of a equal and offsetting credit to a member bank.

That was it.

In effect, the debt has been monetized.

You can monetize anything.

You could monetize one square inch of the US Federal Highway System = $1.00. It would then be backed by a fairly illiquid :- ) asset, but an asset, nonetheless. It can be backed by debt as well ( and is ) .

If we can't have a redeemable asset monetization ( ie PM's ) , and we can't have an illiquid asset monetization ( Federal Highway ) , then I would rather see a simple non-monetized fiat currency ( ie, It is a dollar because we said it was a dollar ) , rather than what we have, which is monetized debt.

If you think about it enough, you come to the conclusion that the national debt can never be paid, because it is the basis of the money of the country. The chains are there from the inception, as I see it.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 04:06
sorex (APH, others) ID#27499:
http://www.barchart.com/cme/cmewnk.htm

I would very much appreciate your comments on this Nikkei 225 weekly chart. Trends and timing?

JM

Date: Sun May 31 1998 03:52
mozel (@And from a contradiction you can deduce ANYTHING!) ID#153102:
So, if your money, banking, and law are all based on a contradiction ( and they provably are ) , then the Babel of deductions in economics and finance and from legislatures is a guaranteed result. Or, as they used to say, error begets error.

The contradiction is, of course, that there is no capital in the things that have been capitalized.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 03:49
downunder__A (Sorex) ID#27341:
reminds me of some words i saw a couple of weeks ago, something like this, if the asian situation is not handled correctly it may cause a world economic slowdown.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 03:39
mozel (@Leverage) ID#153102:
Necessity is the Mother of Invention.
Usury is the Mother of Leverage.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 03:38
Ron (in sack-o-tomatoes) ID#413195:
Copyright © 1998 Ron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Hi, Dr. Schippi!

( Schippi has a PhD in Mathematics, and has studied time series using the original text by Box and Jenkins, the inventors of time series. A lot more than I can say for myself. So I should, and do, defer to him on all such questions. )

Anyway, here's my solution:

Gollum wrote:

Let x=1
multiply both sides by x
then x^2=x note:x^2 signifies x squared
subtract 1 from both sides
x^2-1=x-1
factor
( x+1 ) ( x-1 ) = ( x-1 )
divide both sides by ( x-1 )
x+1 = 1 [so x=0]
but from first line x=1
[therefore 0=1]

Gollum very craftily left out that you can't divide by zero. Therefore, when he divided by x-1, he should have added that this division does not allow x=1 ( for in that case, x-1=0 ) . But we were talking about the case x=1 from the very beginning . . . So the remainder of the proof is most definitely not for this special case and we shouldn't continue, since we've already assumed that x=1.

Schippi wins a free Happy Meal. Sorry, Schippi. :- )

Date: Sun May 31 1998 03:29
mozel (@sharefin) ID#153102:
Banking is a system.
Society is not a system. When a system is imposed on society, that is tyranny. When individuals transact freely and voluntarily without fraud or force for mutual benefit in their individual pursuit of happiness, that is freedom.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 03:24
sorex (There is something AG can´t handle?) ID#27499:
Copyright © 1998 sorex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Overconfidence of mainsteam economists vaining? Krugman turning the wintercoat.

JM



February



Granted, there have been epochs of deflation in the past. But the more you know about them, the less relevant they seem to the modern world. For example, there was sustained deflation in the late 19th century. That was because we were on the gold standard, and the supply of gold couldn't keep up with rising world output. There was also a short but vicious spell of deflation in the early 1930s. The U.S. banking system collapsed then, thanks in large part to the eerie passivity of the Fed in the face of a financial panic. Other countries didn't have to follow us down, but because they insisted on staying with gold, they did. Really, I can't see anything in today's world producing sustained 19th-century-type deflation. And a 1931-style collapse would require not only that everything that can go wrong actually does, but also that Alan Greenspan and his German counterparts behave with completely uncharacteristic stupidity.



I don't care how bad the news from South Korea gets or what happens to next month's producer price index. I'd still find it hard to imagine a world in which deflation becomes a trend. While Asia's woes may put temporary downward pressure on the prices of some goods, we are mainly a service economy--and anyway, Greenspan can handle any short-run deflationary pressure by serving us an extra monetary helping or two. On the other hand, if someone offered me an option on the possibility of a return to, say, 4% inflation three years from now, I'd be prepared to buy it on general principles. No matter how much we vow to battle indulgence, that extra dessert is all too tempting. In fact, I think I'm ready for a snack right now.



http://www.pathfinder.com/fortune/1998/980202/fir2.html



May



Those instincts can be mighty hard to deny--and self-reinforcing, at least for a while. After all, an increase in the number of people acting like Cave Bulls tended to mean fewer mammoths per hunter, but an increase in the number of modern bulls tends to produce even bigger capital gains, as long as the run lasts. Any broker can tell you that in recent months the market has been rising, despite mediocre earnings news, because of fresh purchases by people desperate to get in on the action. But sooner or later the supply of such people will run out; then what?



Okay, okay, I know that sophisticated investors are supposed to take the long view and arbitrage away these boom-bust cycles. And maybe, just maybe, the market is where it is because wise and far-seeing folks have understood that the New Economy can produce growing profits forever, and that the rise of mutual funds has eliminated the need for old-fashioned risk premiums. But my sense is that people who take a long view have been driven to the edge of extinction by the sheer scale of recent gains, and that explanations we now hear of why current prices make sense are rationalizations rather than serious theories.



The whole situation gives me the chills. It could be that I'm just a Neanderthal too thick-skulled to understand the new era. But if you ask me, there's an Ice Age just over the horizon.



http://www.pathfinder.com/fortune/1998/980525/fir.html










Date: Sun May 31 1998 03:23
mozel (Ron) ID#153102:
Continuous robbery is bondage.

Murray Rothbard is recommended.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 03:20
sharefin (Let x=x) ID#284255:
-
A mortgage is leverage.
Many are in over their heads.
Credit cards are leverage.
Who does not engage in this game?

Take away the liquidity and what do you have?
A highly stacked deck of cards.

*** Pyramiding. ***
Banks in OZ only hold ( by law ) 3% of deposits.
The other 97% is lent 3 - 4 -5 times over.

Take away the liquidity ( which is happening now )
And all who have debt are leveraged.

Which means that they have risk that they don't even know of.

Soon they are to find out.

When we get this market crash - ( not if but when )
The derivative markets will be assailed.
Be it that they collapse, then
The banking empires will be pulled to its knees.

Then the 'commoner' will be 'rooned'

We are all leveraged to this system we call society.
We are all at risk.

And what of insurance?
That is another chapter.
Equally as complex - equally as large.
Built upon the same set of rules
As this banking empire.

This is not good.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 03:20
Schippi (Equations @ Gollum) ID#93199:
Copyright © 1998 Schippi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:54
Gollum ( @Let X=X_ ) ID#43349:
Let x=1
multiply both sides by x
then x^2=x note:x^2 signifies x squared
subtract 1 from both sides
x^2-1=x-1
factor
( x+1 ) ( x-1 ) = ( x-1 )
divide both sides by ( x-1 )
x+1 = 1
but from first line x=1
therefore 2=1
**********************************
The ERROR here of course is that the roots of
the x^2-1 = x - 1 are x=0 or x=1
since you are dividing ( x-1 )
You are dividing by ZERO.
And from a contradiction you can deduce ANYTHING!

Date: Sun May 31 1998 03:18
mozel (@Gollum) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I think if you create an equation using L for Labor and G for greenbacks and T for Taxes where T = L*G , you will stop laughing.

For some reason, people vastly underestimate the tax burdem. ( Maybe they think they are getting a last laugh by paying with printed paper. ) But, if you just take a pair of shoes, for example, and calculate the portion of each cost that goes into the final price which is tax, you will realize much more of every greenback earned goes to taxation than is commonly supposed. The shoes start with ground-rent on the land where the cattle graze; the portion of the the vet bill that is tax ( not tax on the bill. That's extra. ) , the portion of the feed bill, of transport, auction, butchering, tanning. At every step, there is tax in the cost. And then at the end, you pay sales tax on the final price, which is in part tax on tax actually.

If we were peasants, we would know what to do. The Baron has all the gold in his castle.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 03:16
Ron (in sack-o-tomatoes) ID#413195:
Copyright © 1998 Ron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mozel: I'd call it robbery. But how is it bondage? By robbing me of my candy, the govt hasn't put chains on me except to the extent that it can repeat the offense at will, further depriving me of the fruits of my labor. But basically, it just seems like robbery. And I don't usually think of a robber as having enslaved me, only having robbed me -- something I hope one day to justifiably blow him away for.

I guess I just don't fully understand some of these terms. And I'm sorry I haven't been able to read everything you've contributed since you came here, but I've been injured and missed out on a lot the last eight months. Perhaps you'd be so kind as to recommend some reading: von Mises, Hayek, Spooner? Someone who writes with extreme clarity, please, so that even a rank beginner can understand ( I love Spooner, BTW ) . Thanks.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 03:16
Gollum (@sharefin) ID#43349:
We are at a seam in the fabric of history. Massive
wheels are in motion but the train hasn't quite got
here yet. Sitting here in the dark we can see sheets
of heat lightning off across the prarie, maybe feel a
hint of breeze, a suggestion of thunder.

It's srriking how little attention the media pays to
the countries crashing down all around us. Momentous
events just backpage news.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 03:11
Let X=X__A (hhhh, schippi) ID#317191:

does that mean i am 0?

i just got here

it happened so fast

Date: Sun May 31 1998 03:08
Let X=X__A (n answer, sharefin) ID#317191:

leverage = risk

so leverage is for players only

the small should not play with the big

Date: Sun May 31 1998 03:07
Schippi (equations @ Aurator) ID#93199:
Copyright © 1998 Schippi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:26
aurator ( hey Presto ) ID#257148:
Ron
here 'tis

( x+1 ) ( x-1 ) = ( x-1 )

No it dont

factor that out and you get

x^2 -1 = x-1


ergo

0=1
*****************************************
Aurator
What I get is :

x^2 - 1 = x - 1
x^2 -1 - x + 1= 0
Or
X^2 -x = x ( x-1 ) = 0
x = 1 or x = 0

Both of these roots satisfy the equation do they not?

Therefore what's the
Ergo
0=1 about?


Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:58
sharefin (Gollum) ID#284255:
-
I think much will resemble '29 by the time we are into the second or third year of the new millenium.

My 84yr old Dad says Please no, not that again.

I doubt many of us have the vision to see beyond the curve in the road ahead.

And we are racing along that road at an ever increasing speed.

The Quickening is here already.

There is a feeling in the air where many want more - faster and better.

It's like the need/greed for money.
10% is poor
30% is average
but to get 150% in two weeks is what I really want.

This is a damnation upon all who seek the need for speed.

Leverage will become a despised arena.
As many fall into the hole they have dug.

This is not good - for mankind today.



Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:55
Gollum (@mozel ) ID#43349:
On the good side, when they come around to collect
my taxes, I pay them in dollars so the laughs
on them.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:52
mozel (@Gollum) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A greenback is a Note for Nothing. So it is a Promise to Pay Nothing. It is an utter fraud to call it a Note at all. It is as if I took candy from your store and gave you a piece of paper that said 1 UNIT. Use this to pay your rent. and told you If you get any argument from the landlord, just call my goon squad. What would you call that transaction. Extortion ? Robbery ? I have used force to take your candy, basically. And put you in bondage for the value of the candy.

But it's worse than that because the government has agreed to pay interest for the Notes that it forces you to USE. And it collects Notes from you to satisfy that interest due. Nothing ever gets paid. It can't. There's nothing but Notes. Everything is a liability except the tangibles and they are all encumbered. And on top of that is the fractional reserve fraud by which a few Notes are the basis for the issuance of a multiple of Notes.

Bondage, literally, is what this is all about.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:52
downunder__A (You guys stretch this small cell to its limit.) ID#27341:
GM

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:46
aurator () ID#257148:
Pu'ukani
yes, well indeed, my school was next door to your wife's. I have some friends who live at Purukanui, I suspect it has the same meaning, and shall find out.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:44
Gollum (@aurator) ID#43349:
There are lots of teacher and there are a few
really good teachers. Teachers give us facts,
but good teachers make us think.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:41
Gollum (@sharefin) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I see it pretty much that way too. Conditons are
much closer to 29 than 87. Big smart money may move
toward gold if they see the writing on the wall before
a crash, but that's a pretty sophisticated bunch of
guys and they can move around without making many
ripples. They are not panic buyers. Look at all the
physical sikver Buffet acquired and the market moved
not a tiddle nor a jot until after the news came out.
And silver's a much thinner market than gold. You
could move a herd of elephants into gold with no one
the wiser and you wouldn't need David Copperfield to
do it.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:39
Schippi (Fidelity Select Gold Charts) ID#93199:
Copyright © 1998 Schippi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts:
Five Year Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpmlt.htm
120 market days Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm120.htm
30 market days Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm30.htm
10 days Hourly Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

These charts have been updated to include some missing data.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:39
Ron (still proppin' me eyes open in sack-o-tomatoes) ID#413195:
aurator: No Prozac, but loads of cholesterol . . . Yes, 0=1, a contradiction. So what went wrong in the proof? Anyone? This is the ONLY thing I'm good for, here, since I can't help anyone with their investments, being a total flop at that . . . were that it weren't so.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:32
Pu'ukani (aurator () ID#257148:) ID#226327:
aurator ( ) ID#257148:
Pu'ukanui. My pleasure. Your handle looks Polynesian?

Yes, Hawaiian for singer or sweet voiced. I live in Hawaii but grew up in England which is how I was able to spot your reference to the front page hero of Eagle Comics. BTW, my wife grew up in Panmure and attended Otahuu College along with David Longe. I'm sure you know these places.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:32
Gollum (@Let X=X) ID#43349:
Feeling small is the first part of being great

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:31
aurator (there are many teachers here at kitco too) ID#257148:
Gollum
Yes, he was one of the prime influencers in my life, though he'd probably still shake his head in mock chastisement.....

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:29
Let X=X__A (ll these other) ID#317191:

equations make me feel so small

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:29
sharefin (Email chatter) ID#284255:
-
- The POG will not increase dramatically until after the stock market crash
- The current POG is low due to $ strength v Yen ( although 291 is the likely bottom of this channel and gold might close the week at 300 ) .
- The recent round of CB sales, and the latest rumour of Dutch and Swiss sales, are also contributing to weakness in gold.
- Although the gold has mainly been sold to other central banks ( as preparation for EMU ) , poor market psychology exists as evidenced by the efficacy and the magnitude of the market manipulation prior to May 8th
- All technical indicators have been flashing since friday vis-a-vis the stock markets and Monday's falls are just the beginning. The state of S. Korea, Russia and Hong Kong ( about to go into recession ) will exacerbate the problem, as will the weakness of the Yen ( as it goes towards 150 ) sparking worries of another round of competitive devaluations and consequent weak Asian stock markets
- The market is not as in 1987. Then we had inflation and the gold spike was consistent with a flight to an anti-inflationary hedge. The gold spike was then a signal of the impending stock market crash. There is no inflation this time round. The order of money flow this time round will first be equities to bonds and ( later on ) bonds to PMs. Consequently, there will be no gold-spike precursor to the crash.
- If the June 8th ECB gold backing announcement is favourable, we could see gold at 324 ( as the very highest ) , by July 8th.
- Nonetheless, gold at 292 is a joke and one should accumulate as much of the stuff as is possible since the long-term outlook for gold is extremely bullish.
- If one wants to short the US market, one should take OEX puts ( it has an 80% weighting of high tech companies whose prices are many many times their earnings. It is these companies which will be hardest hit in a crash ) as opposed to DJ puts ( these 30 blue chips are likely to be more resilient to the crash ) .
- However, it is worth noting that extrapolation of the market correction ( in the week 21st May-28th May ) to any potential future crash offers a different picture. Were one to have purchased equal numbers of Dow and OEX puts ( and sold them before the bounce back in the last hour of trade ) , the intrinsic value from the Dow puts ( @$10 per point ) would have been roughly twice the intrinsic value from the OEX puts ( @$100 per point ) . [Assume ( perhaps quite unfairly, but interesting as a means of comparing apples and oranges ) that the cost of each type of put is equivalent.]
- As for gold, nobody would be better pleased than I to have a spike as an evident tell-tale sign of the impending stock market crash. I accept that the Warren Buffetts, George Soroses of this world will seek flight to gold. The key question is whether this smart money is sufficient to cause an evident gold spike whilst the sheep are still stuck in equities. * After all, the gold market is much much larger than the silver market. I doubt that Warren Buffett and the likes could do to gold what he did to silver. If this smart money is not sufficiently sizeable then, as said before, there will be no gold spike before the crash. There is an awful lot of money sitting on the side lines and, in the absence of any better place to put it, it keeps returning to buoy the stock market. Surely it is the movement of a portion of this substantial money which will act as the crash indicator, and with gold so deliberately physically** and psychologically*** suppressed, it may chose to fly to government paper****. It is then only AFTER the crash that the safety of gold over bonds will be sought.


[* definition of spike?]
[** I mean ofcourse short selling of paper gold and not the actual metal, demand for which exceeds supply]
[*** Swiss re-hash of sales -yawn yawn-
[**** as intended by governements?]


Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:29
Gollum (@aurator) ID#43349:
He knew we are never too young to begin to learn
anything. Indeed from the moment of conception we
start learning the cosmos. Slowly at first, yes?

Our minds are finite so we never learn to comprehend
much more than that we cannot truly and completely
comprehend anything, except for perhaps a few of the
most trivial of things. Indeed if we look too closely
we find there's nothing there!

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:26
Jack (Hope this is the Perigee of that Full Moon hanging over Kitco for the past six months) ID#252127:


Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:26
aurator (hey Presto) ID#257148:
Ron
here 'tis

( x+1 ) ( x-1 ) = ( x-1 )

No it dont

factor that out and you get

x^2 -1 = x-1


ergo

0=1

what's a happy meal? does it include prozac

prestidigit@rator

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:23
downunder__A (Question,,) ID#27341:
How many times has the R=D word appeared on this site from all corners of the globe in the last 72 hrs.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:20
Let X=X__A (ll:) ID#317191:

we have broken new ground tonight

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:19
Gollum (@Let X=X) ID#43349:
_

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:19
Ron (in sack-o-tomatoes) ID#413195:
Chat mode off.

G'nite.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:19
aurator () ID#257148:
Gollum
That, and a hundred other number puzzles, ( like Fibonacci numbers and Pascal's triangle ) were taught to me by a maths teacher when I was about 10 years old. He never thought we were too young to learn, them, so we weren't

I had even been taught Lucas numbers then, but had forgotten about them until 2¢ ( aurophile ) and humble1 reminded me of them at avid.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:16
Let X=X__A (+ gollum) ID#317191:

therefore:

= what, yes?

cancels out the infinities

beautiful isnt it?


Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:13
Let X=X__A (urator, uric) ID#317191:

i have no punctuation skills

it is an embarrassment


Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:12
aurator (stitution) ID#257148:

since x^2 =1, and x =1, then x^2 = x

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:10
Gollum (rebuttal) ID#43349:
= what is

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:09
Let X=X__A (urator) ID#317191:

what = rg?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:09
aurator (gollum, yar by gar I've seen that before, you forgot one sub) ID#257148:
algie
RJ wouldn't have forgotten the apostrophe

lets let......

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:08
Let X=X__A ( reply) ID#317191:

= what it is


Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:08
aurator () ID#257148:
algie
RG wouldn't have forgotten the apostrophe

lets let.....

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:05
Ron (in sack-o-tomatoes) ID#413195:
0=1
q.e.d.

A free Happy Meal to the first person ( not you Gollum! ) who finds the mistake.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:04
Gollum (@downunder) ID#43349:
Greenspan is a wutz.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:03
Gollum (@Let X=X) ID#43349:
What is is.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:00
downunder__A (Gollum-run that by me again, did i see, greenspan=allan) ID#27341:
GM

Date: Sun May 31 1998 02:00
Let X=X__A (re u trying ) ID#317191:

to confuse me gollum?

lets let x = x and let it be

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:54
Gollum (@Let X=X_) ID#43349:
Let x=1
multiply both sides by x
then x^2=x note:x^2 signifies x squared
subtract 1 from both sides
x^2-1=x-1
factor
( x+1 ) ( x-1 ) = ( x-1 )
divide both sides by ( x-1 )
x+1 = 1
but from first line x=1
therefore 2=1

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:53
aurator () ID#257148:
Ron Taxes in NZ: max income tax is 34 cents in $, GST @ 12.5% on all good and services ( except bank charges, rent, and 9999 Au & Ag ) No capital gains taxes, but I smell them on the horizon.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:45
Squirrel (Restriction of the definition of Collectibles) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
FWIW - in digging around at
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c105:S.197:
I found the following which may be of interest to Kitcoites who may feel some of their collection of GOLD is exempted from some federal fingers because it is a collectible. It seems that if a coin is pedigreed by one of the established services it is no longer a collectible if the bill passes. Even though the bill concerns IRAs, it may open the door to confiscation of what we had ASS-U-ME-D to be collectibles.

S.197
Savings and Investment Incentive Act of 1997 ( Introduced in the Senate )
SEC. 103. CERTAIN COINS AND BULLION NOT TREATED AS COLLECTIBLES.
( a ) IN GENERAL- Paragraph ( 3 ) of section 408 ( m ) ( relating to exception for certain coins ) is amended to read as follows:
` ( 3 ) EXCEPTION FOR CERTAIN COINS AND BULLION- For purposes of this subsection, the term `collectible' shall not include--
` ( A ) any coin certified by a recognized grading service and traded on a nationally recognized electronic network, or listed by a recognized wholesale reporting service, and--
` ( i ) which is or was at any time legal tender in the country of issuance, or
` ( ii ) issued under the laws of any State, and
` ( B ) any gold, silver, platinum, or palladium bullion ( whether fabricated in the form of a coin or otherwise ) of a fineness equal to or exceeding the minimum fineness required for metals which may be delivered in satisfaction of a regulated futures contract subject to regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission under the Commodity Exchange Act, if such coin or bullion is in the physical possession of a trustee described under subsection ( a ) of this section.'
( b ) EFFECTIVE DATE- The amendment made by this section shall apply to taxable years beginning after December 31, 1996.

APPARENTLY THIS BILL IS STILL IN COMMITTEE.
CALL YOUR SENATOR!

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:44
Let X=X__A (re you saying:) ID#317191:

gollum, that $ = $ ?

i agree

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:42
Gollum (@mozel) ID#43349:
I see what you mean, but I am wondering....
If a dollar is a promise to pay and is not
backed by anything, it is a promise to pay
what?

Is a dollar a promise to pay a dollar?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:37
downunder__A (weiser-sorry mate,went for cafffyy, yep, a little scary.) ID#27341:
GM

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:36
Ron (in sack-o-tomatoes) ID#413195:
Copyright © 1998 Ron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mozel: It's interesting and a little confusing; when I'm given dollars, I am unaccustomed to thinking that I have merely been given a promise to pay me, habituated as I am to thinking that I actually *have* been paid. Of course, I do understand what you're saying now, and I don't suppose that I would be too happy about it if in turn the next fellow in the pyramid scheme ( is that too strong? ) refused to accept *my* dollars, or was not forced at the point of bayonet into accepting them.

Do you see the much-discussed digital dollar as being an even greater threat by userers than our present system of currency and, if so, how is the threat posed by them even greater? I believe I saw a post recently ( not sure if it was yours ) warning about the dangers of the digitization of money.

aurator: NZ certainly looks beautiful. When I was in grad school, one of my British classmates tried to talk me into applying to the PhD statistics program in NZ. Came within a hair's breadth of actually doing it.

What are taxes like there? And re: your question about x=x . . . yes indeedy.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:31
aurator (Webster Anyone?) ID#257148:
Algie's use of the word slip Does this word mean a female undergarment in merkan engrish?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:31
Let X=X__A (urator) ID#317191:

ru saying b=4?

algie ( if not = the green kind )

makes you = my mate


Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:25
Let X=X__A (urator >> slip?) ID#317191:

is my slip showing?

let x=x=x

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:24
mozel (@Tyranny No Slogan Not for Computer Users (site related) @Squirrel) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
FACT: Computer networks are being used as an legal excuse for
issuing blanket search warrants for networked buildings even when
file servers are not a part of the network...and not just in
Oregon.

FACT: March 6th, 1997, a full building search was executed in
Coos Bay under a warrant naming only ONE person who lived there,
impacting the lives and privacy of over 20 people leasing space
in the 4 floor, 33,000 sq ft multiuse building. The search
execution was upheld as legal by an Oregon judge, because of
the presence of an unfinished, one week old network that only
extended to one floor of the four floor structure ( the network
did not include a file server, it was a direct connect to the
internet only ) . It is important to note this network did NOT even
exist when the suspected illegal access of a local ISP occured
4 months prior to the multi-officer raid on this building . Most
of the occupants did not even own computers, ( but ALL were
searched ) . Plus, privately owned computers connected to the
network also had their hard drives mirror imaged in the search,
( one computer not owned by the accused suffered damages in the
process ) .

The judge upheld this search warrant execution as legal based on
the following:

#1. According to Judge R. Barron, ( Coos County Oregon ) , there is
NO legal responsibility on an officer to verify or investigate
information given to him prior to a search execution. The lead
officer thought he was acting on reliable information. He was
under no obligation legally to attempt to verify anything told to
him. Nor is he required to limit the search execution once it
becomes apparent he was misinformed. His ONLY obligation
legally was to spew what he was told by any informants
verbatim into the affidavit underlying the search warrant and
to stay within the guidelines established in the warrant .
Therefore, because the officer acted in good faith, the warrant
and how it was executed was legal.

#2. Under the law, as interpreted by this judge, a computer
network connection IS a valid reason for a broad spectrum search
regardless of where the network reaches. The suspected setup
of a network as outlined by a victim/ or witnesses ( even if
they have no actual first hand knowledge of the network )
justifies The Computer Crime Team using a broad spectrum search
warrant execution as a way of investigating what is fact.


This judge implied that people should expect this loss of the
right to privacy when they link to a computer network .... and
also the trauma that such a search provokes, even if you are
innocent of wrong doing. If your home computer is linked to your
office network, and someone at work is accused of wrong doing,
your home IS legally subject to search .... because it is linked
to that network.

I do not intend to use this forum to debate the innocence or
guilt of the ONE person who was named in the warrant...that case
is still in the courts. That a whole building of people was
searched under this warrant is the issue .... and I was one of
them.

Where do the rational guidelines set in ? What doors are we
leaving open for abuse by police officers and for the new
computer crime team to violate our civil rights?

This problem is NOT limited to Oregon.... raids similar to this
one have been reported in other states as well, including
attorney networks in California. The potential for abuse by over
zealous police officers should scare ALL computer users.. Where
does it stop? If a network IS a legal excuse to search beyond the
living space of the person accused of wrong doing, consider
this.... technically,when you connect to your Internet Service
Provider you ARE connecting to a network. Prehaps it is time to
demand rational guidelines for these searches....and to demand
that as much effort go into investigating evidence underlying
the search warrants for computer network searches as is now
required prior to a drug search.

My own discovery in all of this was that you no longer have to be
guilty of wrong doing to wake up to a police invasion of your
home or business. You would have more rights if you were
trafficking hard drugs than you do by being a law abiding
computer user. The bottom line is, as a basic computer user, no
one cares about your rights.

@Squirrel Civil rights are created by legislation. They can be likewise uncreated. The rights secured in Declarations of RIghts are fundamendal rights, rights that governments are constituted to secure, rights endowed by the Creator, rights secured by constituted government from being abridged, infringed, denied or disparaged by private or public men. Like legislators.

So, how did our constituted rights deteriorate into mere civil rights ?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:21
aurator () ID#257148:
algie ru sure you've not posted here b4? Interesting, accidentally on porpoise spelling mistak.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:19
Let X=X__A (nother pop is true) ID#317191:

pop will go pop

pop = pop


Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:14
Let X=X__A (urator) ID#317191:

i can tell you the collour of the hair of the mother of the guy who took the picture of the fuel cell vehicle on p 29 of JM's Platinum 1998

can rj do that?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:11
((Robnoel.....TheWinds)) ID#20674:
Thanks for the web page ( THE WINDS ) ...Lots of Good Stuff!

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:10
aurator () ID#257148:
Hi algie. Now what about falling Japanese platinum demand having a greater influence on POP ( that's price of platinum ) than increasing industrial and autocatalytic use?

The real RJ could tell me the make of the fuel cell vehicles on p 29 of JM's Platinum 1998 booklet, yes?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:10
mozel (@Ron) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The only Financial Asset that is not debt today is a Bond that is securitized by something tangible like a railroad car.

Look at it from this angle. The greenback is a Note. A Note is a promise to pay. A promise to pay is a debt instrument. There is nothing anywhere in the banking system that is other than a Promise To Pay. All stocks are denominated in Promises to Pay. All unsecuritized bonds are Promises to Pay denominated in Promises to Pay.

It's a terrorist system. The only glue holding it together is the gun and the badge that demands that you accept the Promise to Pay as compensation regardless of the creditworthiness or trustworthiness of the Promiser.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:08
Squirrel (Cherokee - thank you for the url - most enlightening!) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
To better know the entire contents of any legislative bill being considered and the text of the Congressional Record -
We all should spend more time at:
http://thomas.loc.gov
I have been remiss in doing so.
Below are a few bills from the 3,977 listed at ( you need to splice the whole url together}

http://thomas.loc.gov/
cgi-bin/bdquery/L?d105:./list/bd/d105HR.lst:1[1-3977] ( House_Bills ) |TOM:/bss/d105query.html|

25. H.R.25: A bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to provide that the percentage of completion method of accounting shall not be required to be used with respect to contracts for the manufacture of property if no payments are required to be made before the completion of the manufacture of such property.
Sponsor: Rep Ehlers .

26. H.R.26: A bill to amend title 18, United States Code, to provide that the firearms prohibitions applicable by reason of a domestic violence misdemeanor conviction do not apply if the conviction occurred before the prohibitions became law.
Sponsor: Rep Barr .

27. H.R.27: A bill to protect the right to obtain firearms for security, and to use firearms in defense of self, family, or home, and to provide for the enforcement of such right.
Sponsor: Rep Bartlett .

FWIW the summary of the above is also found at that site and reads:
H.R.27
SPONSOR: Rep Bartlett ( introduced 01/07/97 )
SUMMARY: ( AS INTRODUCED )
Citizens' Self-Defense Act of 1997 - Declares that a person not prohibited by Federal law from receiving a firearm shall have the right to obtain firearms for security and to use firearms in defense of:
( 1 ) self or family against a reasonably perceived threat of imminent and unlawful infliction of serious bodily injury;
( 2 ) self or family in the course of the commission by another person of a violent felony against the person or a member of the person's family; and
( 3 ) the person's home in the course of the commission of a felony by another person. Authorizes persons whose rights under this Act have been violated to bring an action in U.S. district
court against the United States, any State, or any person for damages, injunctive relief, and such other
relief as the court deems appropriate.
Sets forth provisions regarding: ( 1 ) the award of attorney's fees; and ( 2 ) the statute of limitations.

Apparently the above bill is still in committee - also on that site.

Regarding the revelations at the site you referred us to:
At my next opportunity I shall ask my Congressman WHY?
The site's text is well written - none of the usual conspiracy hyperbole.
And the facts are documented.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:07
Let X=X__A ( good question) ID#317191:

i am not qualified to answer


Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:05
aurator (My fellow merkans,) ID#257148:


Here's a site for y'all, Ex American now living downunder in NZ

http://www2.wave.co.nz/~nzenctrs/home.html

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:05
Ron (x=x) ID#413195:
RJ, is that really you?

I bid on some more Oct plat calls Friday, but didn't get filled. The sharp plunge in the morn scared me and I hesitated. Too long, alas. Plan to try again Monday.

Any idea who or what bought more than 200 Oct 380 calls last session?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:05
Let X=X__A (urator) ID#317191:

i am he

english is my first language

but our trees are not so mighty


Date: Sun May 31 1998 01:01
aurator () ID#257148:
algebra fella
ok so you're not rj, it's a kilogram, you from the N island?

Date: Sun May 31 1998 00:57
Let X=X__A (urator) ID#317191:

i am rj

yes

is kg of beef = kilogram or keg?

let x=x


Date: Sun May 31 1998 00:54
aurator (what is kitco without a recipe? sorry Bart, but you gotta try this 'un) ID#257148:
Crusty

A salad recipe for you and all

Thai Salad

1 kg of beef ( rump or sirloin ) / or chicken

Roast until cooked, with minimal seasoning, salt and pepper only

Allow to cool, then marinate in
40 ml soya sauce, 40 ml lemon or lime juice, ( lime is better, eh RJ ) 20 ml Thai fish sauce, 2 cloves garlic, 4 red chillies, 2 shallots, 30 gm raw sugar for 8-12 hours. Serve chilled, dress over salad greens. Eat with rice or au natural


Date: Sun May 31 1998 00:53
Ron (in sack-o-tomatoes) ID#413195:
Mozel: Is every dollar in circulation an instrument of debt; i.e., aren't the banks required by their charters to lend no more than a rather small and fixed percentage of their deposits?

I'm not trying to be confrontational. Please don't interpret it that way. I've read many of your posts and think they are well-written and very thought-provoking. But I don't have a background in this stuff, can't figure it out for myself, and have been wondering about how federal restrictions on bank lending affect your argument, if at all. Thanks.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 00:46
aurator (algebra fella) ID#257148:
Hi RJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 00:39
Let X=X__A (nd not what you paint it) ID#317191:

there is lots of talk about point of view and how all are welcome

but rj did not say it was f* views, but his attacking ways

i have read this site for a year so i do know this page

when truth gets bent, i will unbend it

let x=x


Date: Sun May 31 1998 00:37
6pak (JTF @ 22:26) ID#335190:
Good Read. Thank you for your thoughtful words.

Take Care

Date: Sun May 31 1998 00:37
weiser (downunder_A) ID#202123:

scary isn't it--- I mean what can, could, or will happen.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 00:36
mozel (@Socialist Yes ? Tyranny No ?) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If public policy relects your views more or less, it will never seem tyrannical. So, the wheel of socialism has to roll forward and squash most everyone's rights at least once before most people get the picture.
Many never do. The saying You must break eggs to make an omelet is a permanent mental fixture with these. They are invariably people who never had an egg in their whole life.

It takes a belief in the validity of your own reason and private thinking to hold the statement When the rights of one are trampled, all are bruised as a matter of conviction.

Tyrants and tyrannical forms of government are, therefore, always enemies of reason and promoters of slogan. [ This message has been brought to you by the Ad Council. ( Not ) ]

Date: Sun May 31 1998 00:16
mozel (@Financial Assets) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
People seem unable to grasp the significance of the statement, You cannot ever pay debt with debt. It goes right past their intake valves.
We talk glibly about the Big Lie. It never crosses our minds that we are victioms of one ourselves.
For some reason, the word money is on the positive side of the thinking ledger. So, regardless of how many times you tell people, the money is debt, it never registers. The money never moves from the positive to the negative side in the thinking ledger. It is too monstrous. The thought, the consequences, are just too monstrous to consider. That is the secret of the genuine Big Lie. It can't be faced.

But, the truth is all financial assets are just derivatives of debt and no better than debt. All of the postives are fundamentally negatives. All of the labor that was expended in acquiring those assets of debt was stolen by fraud. Financial assets are literally worth less than zero. It is the Big Lie that makes us think or believe otherwise.

Date: Sun May 31 1998 00:13
EJ (gagrad: I'll respond tomorrow) ID#45173:
thx for the note.
-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 00:12
dung beetle (Be the First One on Your Block to have a...) ID#272234:
FREE Y2K Screensaver. Download here... http://www.silkmoth.com/download/y2k.htm

Date: Sun May 31 1998 00:12
EJ (panda, robnoel, oris) ID#45173:
Apologies for the hit and run earlier. Had to go and now it's bedtime. Hope to catch you tomorrow. Until then...
Cheers,
-EJ

Date: Sun May 31 1998 00:04
downunder__A (Weiser- Your so RIGHT) ID#27341:
Gm

Date: Sun May 31 1998 00:01
Let X=X__A (equation:) ID#317191:

it was a large room full of people of all kinds

and they all arrived at the same building

at more or less the same time and they were all free

and they were all asking themselves the same question

who's behind that curtain?

let x = x


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