KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:59
oris (JTF\Another as a person of other culture ...you said.) ID#238422:
JTF, as you know English is my second language.
Anyway, it seems to me that Another's English
is a little bit strange. To me, it sounds like
an artificially altered English...
Otherwise, he is a fine poster.



Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:58
robnoel__A (Such an outpouring of civility here to-nite,I go to bed happy,there is hope) ID#411112:

.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:55
STUDIO.R (@God of Fire......) ID#288369:
I knew the moment I first read you, that all you would share with me would likely exceed my ability to convey gratitude to you. So all I can say is....my spirit happily sings for you.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:53
JTF (Full Moon April 11, Why Kitco should be international) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: We are nearing another full moon. I know some of us think there is no correlation between the phases of the moon and human bahavior, but somehow the fish know, even in fresh water, and even if the moon is on the other side of the earth.

Statistically, trends tend to begin near a full moon, but the magnitude and the direction must be determined by the investor. My guess is a short term downtrend in gold.

I have also noticed that human behavior on this site tends to get a bit chaotic within a few days of a full moon. And I think the posters that do this do not realize that they are behaving differently at this time of the month.

G'Nite all, and may all Kitcoites wherever they are, and whatever nationality they are, feel free to post without disruption. That I think is the Kitco ideal, and that also ensures the most efficient exchange of information to the benefit of all!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:52
Open-Loop (@Sharefin@losthomes.stupid) ID#16255:
I know Lots of people like that!!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:49
IDT (Japan and comment) ID#228128:
Copyright © 1998 IDT/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Apparently investors don't like the proffered stimulus program. Nikkei is down 1.25% tonight, about 206 points. Also, I'd like to comment on my take on the tone of the chat at this site of late. I hate to see posters driven off in disgust as a consequence of some of the personal attacks made by others. Farfel and LGB I think that you are both boorish and unconscionably rude towards others. If you think you are doing others a favor buy ridding the site of discenting views, think again. I like to hear all sides and make up my own mind. If either of you know anything about the market, it serves no purpose for me as I can hardly at this point gag my way through your egotistical posturing about your Yale, Beverly Hills, 1000% investment success stories. Who gives a crap. There, I've lowered myself but I'm sick of watching this go on day in and day out until the likes of you have driven everyone off. One more thing, leave Old Gold alone. He's cool and I like his insights.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:44
arden (Mr. Poe) ID#201238:
After most of my life searching, Eldorado is found in your heart.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:40
JTF (Logging off for son -- G'Nite all!) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sharefin: Noticed your posts from the Japanese media. Please keep tabs on how you found that information -- I do not remember such frankness coming from that part of the world: 'too little tax cuts -- to late'. It looks like Hashimoto has lost his battle with the Japanese bureacratic dragon. Not a good sign at all.

I have done some thinking about Japan, and I think that there is a major paradigm shift going on, where the Japanese that make up most of the population are nearing retirement, and do not wish to see their savings melt away. They do not have a 'baby boomer' population to prop up the markets. Just like the US in the great depression, the Japanese people are very conservative, and do not wish to spend or generate debt. It is the Japanese government/bureaucratic system that is in trouble, not the average Japanese.

It is likely that the average Japanese will put more of their savings into precious metals and non-Japanese assets if they see their own government as failing them. They are not buying all of those safe deposit boxes just so they can buy Japanese paper, IMHO.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:38
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Sharefin -- Ain't it just 'swell'! Debt-based currencies first implode upon themselves, then they'll explode. They may do this two or three times before the final 'exhalation'. Just the same way a nova/super-nova happens. They run out of the 'first' element to 'transmutate', collapse and create more pressure and heat, transmutate ever heavier elements, I.E., ever heavier debt loads, and then with a final collapse, explode. Natural law revisited. Marvelous what the mind of man can come up with. Too bad so much ingeneousness can't be put to more practical matters.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:37
sharefin (FOCUS-Investors put $27.5 billion into stock funds in March) ID#284255:
-
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/investment_2.html

NEW YORK, April 9 ( Reuters ) - Investors put an estimated $27.5 billion in U.S. stock mutual funds in March, topping the $24.2 billion invested in February, an industry trade group said Thursday.

``That is phenomenal and the amount is way up over the preceding March,'' mutual fund analyst Sheldon Jacobs said. ``Investors are generally bullish, there have been no meaningful market corrections and money continues to pour in.''

In March last year, domestic equity funds took in $9.97 billion in net new cash.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:36
Prometheus (Studio et al) ID#210235:
Copyright © 1998 Prometheus/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
First of all, my thanks. These past 6 months, this Kitco group has become the other of my internal dialogue. You have inspired my return to old languages ( French, German ) , old books ( economics, etc. ) and have provided a wonderful, rich pool of ideas that I never dreamt I was missing. For this words fail me. Unlike the fin that shares, I have very little of the poetic muse left in my soul.

I have found your words coloring much of my dialogue with friends and loved ones. There is a depth of wisdom, and a clarity of vision that I am humbled, repeatedly, to share ( when you're not sliding into howling at the moon. Is it really a lunar event? ) . One day last week I jotted down the handles of over 40 distinct minds I have had the joy to behold, and I thank you.

Just before I went a-hunting on the Internet, I read THE ART OF THE LONG VIEW by Peter Schwartz. In it, he recommends sharing ideas with people from different disciplines than one's own, from distant places, to gain the perspective necessary to generate a useful long-term perspective and plan of operation for one's company. It was from his advice that I looked, and found you at Kitco. Thank you, Ted, for you weather report from afar. I have shared with one of my children, who suspected she was stoopid how this genius builder had created a life to which we all could aspire. He likes to say, also, that he is stoopid when he confronts technical or unusual things which require explanation, but nothing could be further than the truth.

Studio, Strad Master, PH in LA. We are the music makers and we are the dreamers of dreams. You have reminded me of my roots. Tonight I got ( THANK YOU RJ ) three young girls, age 10, singing the theme of Titanic ( not Rap, Cherokee ) . Beautiful music. It has been years since I played accompaniment to a choir. It is joy and love in the first degree. Bless you and thank you.

LGB, your medication is giving you an edge, bud. Your mind is sharp as a tack, as usual, but you're pissing people off again. Sorry, love you anyway.

Thank you. SDR, Eldorado, 6pak. Life is good. YK2000 won't get in the way too much. I've got at least one of the guys responsible for it by the balls, BTW.

Pax. Promey

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:36
EB (Thursday Comments....regarding Platinum....and such.) ID#22956:
-
ya gotta like the word: such....it's *such* a durables word....OK.

Platinum broke resistence today. THAT....is a GOOD sign. Next resistance is October highs.....430somethinage. When it blows through that we will meet resistance...._____________ ( fill in blank ) . I love Platinum...I am hooked on Platinum...I is a Plat-Bug. My new moniker is Plat-Bug. Bart? Can I change Monikers midstream? And while I'm talkin to ya', did you receive payment yet? Did you send my precious Hope so...
ORGAN - It is good that you post again. I, too, look forward to the response to your questions. Did you buy Dell after the split? To be like you......24 and full of piss and vinegar with an eye for the markets.......
away.....jealous and gettin' old...... ( yeah right ) ...
Éßkickin'

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:34
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (HERR MYR-) ID#431263:
Perhaps you are right, but since the XAU is a weighted index,the PHLX may not want an ADR in the index which is not a share for share equivalent to
to what is traded in the country of origin. I will do my best to find out however!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:33
sharefin (Avid chatter) ID#284255:
-
Yen 131.05 pre-battle price..

Well, the Japanese market has opened sharply lower.. So the investor vote of confidence has failed again. The 14400 panic still seems likely

Nikkei 16299.80 -236.86 -1.43% Not looking too favorable

Japan personal wealth is estimated at $10,000,000,000,000 , and this money is just sitting around ( A.B.C. News )

As I have stated over and over, the problem is the Japanese population has just stopped spending..Pretty simple to understand.

Foreign investor sell orders totalled 28.1 million shares, against buy orders of 19.1 million shares. A sign of disapproval.

The Japanese press and public on Friday registered resounding disapproval over what it considered a half-hearted package of tax cuts and public spending announced by Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto to jump-start the faltering economy.

The Panic sell-off is coming soon. Nikkei at 14,000 is just around the corner.



Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:32
223 (Eldorado, of course you're right.) ID#26669:
Sometimes it is impossible to take back what comes out in the heat of anger. But being the smallest and stupidest and least of the Kitco posters allows me the privilage of knowing which self appointed emperors wear no clothes and which real diplomates have been driven off by their naked posturing.

Watching/thinking about people is an unfortunate side effect of my job which I often carry home with me. To honor you and the other civil persons here I'll endeavor to not talk about certain unnamed person ( s ) . But I'll still not talk TO them.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:30
Liberty (LGB @ Home) ID#263379:
Copyright © 1998 Liberty/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
This is LGB, on my home account. I wish to clarify, for the record, that it has never been my intent to drive ANOTHER from the site, or to in any way question his right to post, and his appreciators rights to analyze his posts. We have a broad and diverse group.

My critical posts re ANOTHER, as all know quite well, have never been directed to him, or directed specifically at him, but more a counterpoint to those who seem to be falling into cultlike behaviour. A counterpoint and different perspective has been my commentary, as I try and provide on other topics as well.

As far as including gross insults in my posts, or ad hominim attacks, one need only read posts from the likes of PHinLA, Tolerant, et al, to see a genuine example of what crosses much further over the line than anything I've ever written.

However, realizing that I have oft been rightly accused of being egotistical, contentious, and adversarial in my presentation, I apologize to ANOTHER, for any insults or questions re his sincerity, motives, etc. On a forum like this, such things are difficult to ascertain. Like many, I believe that it's ideas that are subject to scrutiny, not individuals.

For those who appreciate ANOTHER's writings, JTF and Allen specifically, apologies as well. I consider JTF and Allen, excellent examples of class and civil conduct. Areas I freely admit need work in my Internet personality style. ( You'd never know me if you met me in real life.... so civil and friendly it's almost disgusting! )

Goodnight


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:29
mozel (@aurator At the Water Hole) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I don't have a lot of time for kitco, but I do scan as time allows and this is a wonderful water hole for the PM in our souls.

@Pete You seem like a very sincere, good hearted man. I regret to inform you that you do not own your cars or your house and land even though you did part with federal reserve notes honestly acquired to have the usufruct of them. Look up usufruct in Bouvier's 1856 legal dictionary ( on line ) for the meaning of the term. To verify what I say, get out one one your car titles and read it. What kind of title is it ? The land deed is the same, but too complicated to explain simply. Basically, though, you are just like a feudal serf on the land and will be evicted if you do not pay the King a land tax for the use of his land. The fact none of us have absolute title to our car and land property in America is an important part of the reason the police in Denver, the DEA, etc. can be authorized by ordinance and statute to seize them from us. There are legal consequences to using debt currency. Eldorado spoke truth.

ANOTHER brought his testimony to this site that oil is traded for gold. His sharing caused some of us to look at international trade with new eyes. SDRer has found that many conventions have been made with the Gold Franc as the agreed basis for settlement. These are treaty agreements among participant nations for settlement of claims in Gold. The BIS is a capital bank, its shares paid in gold coin. The BIS is an interesection of the Gold Franc world of transactions and the fiat currency world of transactions because it officially values it gold at $280.00 per oz. A while back I posted a statuatory history on the greenback and the IMF along with an explanation of how to pay for things with golden eagles in America. The tender value of gold in dollars in America is the fixing price in London on the day of the transaction. So, the LBMA is also a intersection of the Gold Franc transaction world and the fiat debt currency transaction world.

There are thus two major intersections between the gold world of transactions and the fiat world of transactions. At one of them gold equal $280 per oz. At another of them gold today equals about $310 per oz. The LBMA is nothing more than a currency exchange. Just like the CB's intervene to support a currency in the FX market, they intervene in London to support or depress gold versus the US$. The free market for gold, if there is one, is out of sight. There are other minor interesctions between the fiat currency world and the world of gold in Germany, France, Hong Kong, etc. The price of gold in these currencies has been rising faster than it has risen in US$ at the LBMA. There is thus opportunity for arbitrage.

How the price of gold in London has been depressed is, I think, not well understood in detail by anyone posting to Kitco. But, basically only readily available supply can depress price in the presence of steady or rising demand. Gold is primarily in demand for jewelry and for monetary purposes. Monetary purposes are controlled by BIS, ultimately, and by national Central Banks intermediately. The only source of monetary demand for gold which is not controlled by government is demand by the common man. When this demand awakens, the price of gold will rise. If the rise from demand is sufficient, it will become uncontrollable. When a government does not pay interest on its paper debt, its currency is worthless. Interest on debt is all that incents people to accept paper in exchange for goods and services. The question for prognosticators is in which nation will demand for substance for money arise and when ? Japanese government bond interest is what percentage ? Is that enough to incent people to hold the paper ? Fiat currencies perish when people defy government and not until.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:29
sharefin (The Mature Persons Prayer.... ) ID#284255:
-

Father, thou knowest I am growing older, please keep me from becoming talkative
and possessed with the idea that I must express myself on every subject.
Release me from the craving to straighten out everyone's affairs.
Keep my mind free from the recital of endless detail.
Seal my lips when I am inclined to tell of my aches and pains.
Teach me the glorious lesson that occasionally I may be wrong.
Make me thoughtful but not moody, helpful but not bossy.
With my vast store of wisdom and experience, it seems a pity not to use it all,
but thou knowest, Lord, that I want to keep my friends. Amen.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:26
aurator (Tempus argentque fugeunt) ID#257148:
Eldo
i posted that Poe on 28 November last for you and Oliver. Time sure flies like eating arrows eh?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:26
themissinglink (Censorship Test) ID#373403:
golden eagle

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:25
sharefin (Indonesia immigrants enter US embassy in Malaysia) ID#284255:
-
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/malaysia_i_1.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Malaysian police roundup more Indonesian migrants
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/malaysia_i_5.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/corrected__12.html
Japan March foreign bond selling
TOKYO, April 10 ( Reuters ) - Net sales of foreign bonds by Japanese investors, based on contracts, totalled 696.5 billion yen in March, the Ministry of Finance ( MOF ) said on Friday.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/boj_believ_1.html
BOJ believed selling dollars for yen--dealers
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/sumitomo_b_1.html
Sumitomo Bank sells Y100 bln non-performing loans
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/conditions_1.html
Conditions more severe in Japan economy-EPA report
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/interview__3.html
McDonald's closes 13 Indonesia stores
Cantalupo said McDonald's is feeling the negative impact of
the Asian financial crisis but has taken steps to get through it. Prices in some markets have been raised, and French fries have been pulled from ``value meals''


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:24
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Ah, this land called Eldorado; Isn't it what we all seek! I wonder what the variations of ideals about it we all have.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:23
Myrmidon (CHEESEHEAD) ID#339212:

I do not see why not an ADR cannot be part of an index.
The XAU, afterall, contains Canadian as well as US golds.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:19
aurator (oops) ID#257148:
real slow, me

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:18
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (HERR MYR) ID#431263:
...and other corporate bargains=acquisitions. Just so you don't think I was trying to mislead you! :- ) I plan on lobbying the Philadelphia Stock Exchange to cull the dogs out of the XAU and insert LIHIR even if it is an ADR.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:18
sharefin (Japan financial sector problem loans Y100 trln-S&P) ID#284255:
-
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/japan_fina_1.html
``We think credit self-assessment ( by financial institutions ) does not fully cover total problem loans,'' she said.

``We are still concerned that some of the major banks are in a very serious condition and have very high problem loans.''

Nemoto said the division at S&P monitoring sovereign debt estimates that Japan will probably have to use 10 percent of gross national product ( GNP ) , or about 50 trillion yen, to help the banking industry, which could be ``a contingent liability.''

She said S&P was concerned that provisions for injections of up to 30 trillion yen of public funds into financial firms would not be sufficient.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:16
aurator (Over the Mountains of the Moon) ID#257148:
-
Studio R


                                      1849
                                    ELDORADO
                               by Edgar Allan Poe
ELDORADO
                   Gaily bedight,
                   A gallant knight,
               In sunshine and in shadow,
                   Had journeyed long,
                   Singing a song,
               In search of Eldorado.
                   But he grew old-
                   This knight so bold-
               And o'er his heart a shadow
                   Fell as he found
                   No spot of ground
               That looked like Eldorado.
           . And, as his strength
                   Failed him at length,
               He met a pilgrim shadow-
                   Shadow, said he,
                   Where can it be-
               This land of Eldorado?
                   Over the Mountains
                   Of the Moon,
               Down the Valley of the Shadow,
                   Ride, boldly ride,
                   The shade replied-
               If you seek for Eldorado!
 
                         -THE END-


BTW AN

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:16
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
MKVI -- Jeesh, I HAD read that long ago! Thanks for bringing it back to the forfront! I AM saving it! Much appreciated.....

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:14
sharefin (Avid chatter - sign of a top - how many will lose their homes?) ID#284255:
-
gee whiz, one of the guys I work with opened a brokerage account with 70K and immediately margined another 60K. He spends more time picking out the cheapest brand of peanut butter than he spent on his stock picks. I suggested ( STRONGLY ) that he consider lightening up on the margin a bit..... he dropped 10K off.....

when the average person thinks that there's money layin around in the street the time is fast approaching for them to be taken to the dry cleaners .....a guy like that will get whacked in no time cause he's playing with borrowed money

I told him they could end up owning his house... I don't think he believed me, cause this is just a giant can't loose casino...... the market is a stern master and teacxxhes hard lessons to the foolish and greedy

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:13
MURRSTEIN (WHEN YOU CAUSE DISTRESS, YOU JUST MIGHT PAY!!!!.) ID#348295:
When someone infringes on my ability to receive any type
of information, that might help my portfolio, I am the
kind of person that looks to see what legal remedies I
can pursue, since this is my profession as well.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:12
sharefin (``It's too little, too late.'' - sack the man?) ID#284255:
-
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/japan_econ_10.html
Japan press rages over Hashimoto tax cuts
TOKYO, April 10 ( Reuters ) - The Japanese press and public on Friday registered resounding disapproval over what it considered a half-hearted package of tax cuts and public spending announced by Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto to jump-start the faltering economy.

The Asahi Shimbun, which tends to take the role of a loyal opposition, ran an editorial headlined ``Does the ( Hashimoto ) administration know how badly it's governing?''

And the Mainichi Shimbun lamented, ``It's too little, too late.''

Most analysts believe Hashimoto dished up a stale offering of 4 trillion yen ( $30.5 billion ) in tax cuts, which translate into about 65,000 yen per family of four -- about the price of a fancy restaurant meal.

His offering was greeted with market disapproval, triggering a barrage of yen selling right after he spoke.

The general public and a wide array of analysts had instead called for a rejigging of the consumption tax to exempt purchases of food and clothing as a means of loosening purse strings.

The Hashimoto government's raising of the sales tax on all goods and services last April from three percent to five percent squashed consumer demand and fuelled the economic downturn.

The question on the minds of the press, markets and ordinary Japanese on Friday was how Hashimoto believed his latest tax cuts would stimulate the kind of consumer spending Japan sorely needs for economic recovery.

The widespread belief was that any income tax cuts would go straight into the already huge mountain of savings squirreled away by Japanese fearful of the future.

The Asahi called for Hashimoto's removal by the electorate for his mishandling of the economy.

``A leader who fails to learn from past mistakes in governance should be dropped by the people,'' the newspaper's editorial thundered.

The Tokyo Shimbun took a straw poll of 25 Tokyo area residents right after Hashimoto's announcement, and found strong dissatisfaction with his new policy.

For months, Hashimoto, citing the fiscal burdens of an ageing society, had clung to a programme of fiscal discipline which ruled out income tax cuts and massive public works spending, and had enshrined the policy into law.

His roll back, which entails a change in that law, was met with calls for his resignation from the man-in-the-street polled by Tokyo Shimbun.

``He should quit. This flip-flop of his undermines the people's confidence in government,'' a 70-year-old retiree said.

The effectiveness of the tax cuts was also called into question.

A 20-year-old female office worker told the pollsters: ``Just cutting income taxes by a few thousand yen or so won't do anything to get people to spend. Hashimoto should resign.''

By contrast popular opposition politician Naoto Kan, chairman of the nascent left-leaning Democratic Party, earlier this week called for six trillion yen in tax cuts and four trillion in public works.

Among his ideas to spur demand was to bury the ubiquitous overhead power lines that mar the Japanese landscape. ( $1=131 yen )

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:11
JTF (We appreciate your THOUGHTS) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
ANOTHER: As aurator posted, LGB sometimes gets a little harsh for our ears, even for westerners. I realize that you are not accustomed in your culture to some of the words that are freely spoken here, and I apologize for all of US at Kitco. I know Bart Kitner wishes this site to be international -- and feels the same way.

I also sense you have an independence of thought, not easily deterred by the words of others.

I wish to say that I appreciate your words, even if I do not always agree or understand. I think you realize also that many of us question everything and look everywhere for answers.

By the way I have a new respect for your comments about the 'gold game' where the idea is to 'own' it all, and then loan it out to banks that no longer have it. I have a strong suspicion that that is what has happened through the BIS. I think you said that it was founded by Nathan Rothschild -- and that we might have enjoyed meeting him?

Any thoughts about the EURO and how much gold backing you expect would be of interest to us. Much is flying back and forth in the news about internal and external European gold reserves, and whether a Belgian ( Rothschild connected ) will be the new Chairman of the new European Central bank. My guess is that the influence of the Rothschilds will not be sufficient to ensure a 100% gold-backed Euro.

I will understand if you wish only to correspond with ALLEN ( USA ) . This site becomes chaotic at times.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:11
STUDIO.R (@God of Fire and MKVI........) ID#288369:
Strangely that piece, as most of Poes' work, has rooted deeply in my brain...I can't explain it....but I just can't lose his thoughts. Thank you both so very much.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:09
themissinglink (Deflation) ID#373403:
Got out my macroeconomics book from my college days where I majored in economics.

Deflation: A sustained downward movement of the aggregate price level.

Has the $1 trillion in new money ( M3 ) created in the past three years stopped computer prices from declining? More money has not stopped commodities from crashing. I will re-read about deflation but it seems that money creation will not necessarily cause a rise in real demand to stem recessionary tendencies.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:09
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Studio R. -- I don't have any Poe's writings here either. I am however curious as to what it might be. Afterall, this IS just a 'handle', and based mostly upon the '76 Eldo I own; my affinity towards the safety of non-paper via metals; and all of Mozels writings, not necessarily in that order!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:04
MKVI (sheesh! it figures....) ID#347185:
:-/

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:04
panda (Eldorado) ID#30116:
That's one thing that I like about the South African golds.... Most of them pay a decent dividend. If the price of gold went up some, WDEPY might actually pay more than a $1... ( around 7% now ) . Really gone....

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:04
Prometheus (@panda) ID#210235:
Thank you for your words of wisdom. As one who has been bearish since '94, based on what we of the old school still call value investing, I appreciate how dire the consequences would have been had I acted on that judgment!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:02
Myrmidon (CHEESEHEAD) ID#339212:

The news on VENGOLD does not say that all the raised
capital will go into LIHIR but it states that it will
go for acquisitions including LIHIR.

Regardless, it was a strong day for both stocks.
Lets hope that Monday will be a more representative
day of the XAU considering that markets are mostly
choppy before long holiday weekends.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:01
MKVI (Eldorado ) ID#347185:
Copyright © 1998 MKVI/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
At least I can make this small contribution...

ELDORADO

Gaily bedight,
A gallant knight,
In sunshine and in shadow,
Had journeyed long,
Singing a song,
In search of Eldorado.

But he grew old -
This knight so bold -
And o'er his heart a shadow
Fell as he found
No spot of ground
That looked like Eldorado.

And, as his strength
Failed him at length,
He met a pilgrim shadow -
`Shadow,' said he,
`Where can it be -
This land of Eldorado?'

`Over the Mountains
Of the Moon,
Down the Valley of the Shadow,
Ride, boldly ride,'
The shade replied, -
`If you seek for Eldorado.'

Edgar Allan Poe

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:01
panda (@ZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzz) ID#30116:
Good night all...

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:00
Prometheus (@Eldorado, Studio) ID#210235:
-
I just happen to have the reference you requested:

ELDORADO

Gaily bedight,
A gallant knight,
In sunshine and in shadow,
Had journeyed long,
Singing a song,
In search of Eldorado.

But he grew old -
This knight so bold -
And o'er his heart a shadow
Fell as he found
No spot of ground
That looked like Eldorado.

And, as his strength
Failed him at length,
He met a pilgrim shadow -
Shadow, said he,
Where can it be -
This land of Eldorado?

Over the Mountains
Of the Moon,
Down the Valley of the Shadow,
Ride, boldly ride,
The shade replied, -
If you seek for Eldorado.

Edgar Allan Poe

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 23:00
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Panda -- So are dividends, but those seem to have all but disappearred. The WHOLE concept must change! Actually, the whole concept WILL change! It can do nothing but. The travails in the transition will probably not go 'smoothly'!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:58
panda (CPI and stuff...) ID#30116:
Copyright © 1998 panda/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
FWIW, I don't believe the CPI numbers. Sure, you can make the case that prices for a lot of things haven't gone up, but are those things REALLY necessary for day to day living? So, where do you put your money? Where it 'earns' the best rate of return, of course! For many folks, that place has become the stock market. My biggest problem with owning stocks is not buying them, it's when to sell them! :- ) )

Do I sell first and buy later, or buy now and sell later

Warning, playing 'chicken' with a freight train can be deadly... Make no mistake about it, the DOW is a freight train that has run over many, many bears. Trying to predict when the train wreck will occur has become a game of psychology, crowd psychology. Perhaps we should consult a good psychiatrist or psychologist for investment advice? :- ) )

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:56
STUDIO.R (@LGB....if you still have posting rights.....) ID#288369:
you might consider an apology to ANOTHER....he has done a great deal to build the reputation of Kitco. He is one of us.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:49
robnoel__A (aj...sometimes I leave out stuff,I failed to say Henry Ford,shocked America by paying $5.00 a day) ID#411112:

you are correct on your number, min.wage was far less,as for the Safir piece stick it on the wall with,missel tech. to China,oil deals in Sudan,diamonds in the Congo,who knows how much tobacco lawyers now owe him,the list goes on......but all the media talks about is Ken Starr ....when most Americans wake up it will be to late.....by gold and lots of it

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:48
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Copyright © 1998 Eldorado/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Inflation IS an increase of the respective money supply to work with in the exchange of goods and services. If kept to an a small number, wages might 'almost' keep up with it. However, even at that, it robs savings. It robs value. It also robs your childrens future as they, as well as you, must pay the 'dues', even those they did not 'condone'.

Deflation is a decrease in the money supply available to work with. Goods and services will typically fall in price, though not as fast as the available money people have to spend, or are willing to spend.

Both inflation and deflation are the two sides of the same 'paper', and those who propagate it. Either case amounts to the same thing; destruction..... Just look at a debt-based curency system as a black hole that you are getting ever closer to............

A confidence game can only end ONE way! When this debt-based system was born, the day of its burning was also born. It can end no other way!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:47
Pete (PH in LA) ID#222231:
I do'nt believe he's leaving because of LGB's barbs. Methinks his purpose is to stop all of this infighting about him, and the best way to do that is depart.IMO.

I put some of this blame on myself, regretfully!

P.S. It bounced again. would you send me your alternate via e-mail?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:41
panda (Eldorado) ID#30116:
Copyright © 1998 panda/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Interest is paid to someone for risking their capital ( stored labor, if you will ) , particularly with regard to bonds or debt instruments. The only way to get rid of this situation is not to have a debt based currency. Until that day arrives....

As far as the inflation/deflation argument goes, it is not what most people believe it to be. Therefore, the debate will continue here as in other places about which is occurring.

I may be over simplifying, but I consider gold to be a currency, the ultimate currency. I don't buy the commodity argument that says gold is just a commodity now. The next shock ( s ) to the financial system shall surely test this hypothesis out, then we can all stop debating what is happening. We shall be experiencing it. For now, I will 'play' in my piddling sand box known as the precious metals market…


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:38
PH in LA (ANOTHER's Thoughts are meant for all) ID#225408:
Copyright © 1998 PH in LA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Pete:

I find it difficult to believe that ANOTHER would leave on account of anything LGB could ever say. If ANOTHER reads all the posts here, as I suspect he does, he knows the kind of mind that is LGB. Egocentric and insecure persons act as LGB on the theory that a strong offence is the best defence. He is always defending himself without offering even the shred of an original thought ( with the possible exception of some comments on numismatics ) . Normally he doesn't even bother to digest the content of a post before offering his opinionated claptrap. For him, it is enough to merely ascertain the topic of a post to generate his disruptive and pointless opinions. Many times I have had the impression that he reads the posts on short version. This, at least, would explain how he is able to post so often when he is here.

I personally am surprised that ANOTHER even deigns to reply to LGB; I hope he does so only to reassure the rest of us who find his ( ANOTHER's ) THOUGHTS so compelling and who wish to learn from his THOUGHTS. As he says so often, his THOUGHTS are offered to all. In any case, I hope that ANOTHER knows that many here are very interested in his THOUGHTS and but for them would not frequent this site. Conversely, few would suggest that many are here to hear the ( so-called ) thoughts ( read: opinions ) of LGB.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:35
STUDIO.R (@Eldorado.....could I prevail upon you.....) ID#288369:
to post Poe's prose of your namesake. I don't have a copy of it here ( or I would ) and I think it would be an appropriate read tonight. Thank you very much... Gaily bedight A gallant knight....

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:29
panda (Selby) ID#30116:
I would like to think that gold is headed up, but bear markets have a way of twisting your thinking process and making you fearful to take a risk... Therefore, this meets the definition of a 'contrarian' situation? Hence, ( dare I say it ) , buy the next pull-back?

BTW, regularity is a wonderful thing. :- ) ( Sorry, I just couldn't resist! )

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:28
Crunch (Panda's point on deflation 20:32) ID#344290:
Panda may have made a good point re: deflation in unfungible currencies. Has there ever been a serious deflation in a currency that was only backed by full faith and credit?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:27
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Anybody that FEELS they were run off of this site by ANY other persons 'verbage', I feel, has a 'complex' of sorts. All THEY have to realize is that it does take ALL kinds to make the world go-around! 'Course, it might go around 'smoother' without a 'few'. However, a lot less 'abrasiveness' can go a LONG ways, as I will personally testify to! Can one not listen without caustically braying?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:21
Hedgehog (News in IMF!!!) ID#39828:
Copyright © 1998 Hedgehog/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
WARNING ON IMF FUNDING LEVELS
Friday 10 April, 1998 ( 9:40am AEST )





The International Monetary Fund is now facing a liquidity
crunch that could limit its ability to deal with a future
financial crisis.
An unnamed I-M-F official in Washington says the liquidity
position of the Fund is very tight.

The official says the I-M-F wanted to preserve a liquidity
ratio of 70-percent, but the current position of around
40-percent was significantly lower.

The I-M-F spokesmen appealed to the American Congress to
approve the Clinton administration's request for an extra
18-BILLION dollars to help shore-up Fund resources, which
have eroded in the face of the Asian crisis.

The I-M-F has pledged nearly 30-billion dollars to
international rescue packages for Thailand, Indonesia and
Korea, which total 118 billion dollars.



Return to the World News Menu

plus ...news from the Asia Pacific Region in Indonesian, Chinese and Tok Pisin

© 1998 Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Fri Apr 10 10:00:00 1998 ( AEST )

AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:16
Hedgehog (Can we please have a minute silence.) ID#39828:
Another terminates his Kitcopersona, and ponders his next
entrance. Left of field of cause.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:14
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
223 -- I've also heard that there are three kinds of people: Those who talk about people; those who talk about things; and those who talk about ideals.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:14
STUDIO.R (@pete...) ID#288369:
we may now have to see with less sunlight....if you're right.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:14
Pete (clone) ID#222231:
Copyright © 1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
YOU POSTED:

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 21:31
clone ( Pete ) ID#267344:
Security is a wonderful thing. I am in a very similar space to you and at times I feel the same. However, insecurity arises in my mind when I begin to consider the fact that my fellow Americans have lost the spirit to defend their Constitutional Rights. I begin to feel very isolated and vulnerable because I care. Very interesting times...

........................................................................

clone, all people from all corners of the world that are hard money advocates, conservatives, moral in life, believe in GOD, and seek truth and liberty are fighting the last battle in our small, but powerful way. As you live your life the right way and instruct others to do the same, the battle is being fought. RIGHT IS MIGHT!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:12
223 (1)Inflation 2)the BOYCOTT LGB movement) ID#26669:
Pete, I get the idea you're right about several of your ideas on inflation ( except I think that rising interest rates will lag ) and on Another's meaning. On the former there's not much to do except accumulate PM's and MMfunds but on the latter I feel that LGB may need a good old fashioned shunning to make him civil. With this in mind I'm going to start boycotting him/her tonight.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:09
arden (invest in gold in the ground?) ID#201238:
Clone - I would be more than happy to tell you what I do, but not on Bart's wonderful site. ardengold@msn.com

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:04
arden ($200 million per week deficit) ID#201238:
Copyright © 1998 arden/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Jims - the number is an approximation, but it is about two hundred million dollars per week and has been for two years. The number comes from an estimated 1200 ton deficit of gold if you measure mine supply vs world consumption. Strange as it may seem, I used the same $200 million weekly number almost two years ago on this forum, but then I was using $380 per ounce for gold and 1000 ton annual 'deficit'. It still approximates to $200 million per week coming from - Central Banks ( debasing their paper ) , forward sales ( more paper ) and hedge fund short sales ( still more paper ) . Very simply, paper gold can not replace real gold!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:02
223 (Small echoes:) ID#26669:
Durned if I can recall where I read this:

Thoughts are like fleas. They jump from person to person but don't bite everyone.




Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 22:00
Pete (ALL,DOES'NT ANYONE HERE UNDERSTAND WHAT ANOTHER SAID IN HIS (LAST) POST?) ID#222231:
Copyright © 1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Our loss is LGB's gain. He's finally managed to drive ANOTHER away. ANOTHER is one of the most gracious men I have ever encountered.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:22
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
Copyright © 1998 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mr. LGB,

I did come to Kitco with only my THOUGHTS to share. This thinking
was offered to all and is as free as the wind. Even as my writings were discussed by many, I did never find you to be a fraud or hoxier, as your words were offered with good intent. Please, find my words of
record that were spoken against you, and show them, here?

ANOTHER NEVER BELITTLED OR INSULTED LGB OR THOUGHT BAD OF HIM.

I find not the reason for your purpose of speech! It offers a nature of confrontation and disruption for persons of simple ways and
thoughts, such as I. As you have your direction for life, I have a
purpose in life.

ANOTHER DISLIKES CONFRONTATION OR DISRUPTION.

I wish you the blessing, to walk tall with wealth, for all your days, that one may complete the journey that is given for all to travel. I do instruct another to send my thoughts where ears do not bite!

ANOTHER WISHES LGB WELL. ANOTHER ALSO INSTRUCTS HIS THOUGHTS TO GO WHERE THEY WILL NOT BITE THE EARS. RATHER THAN CAUSE ANYMORE CONFRONTATION AND DISRUPTION, ANOTHER IS DEPARTING.

ANOTHER, PLEASE RECONSIDER! MANY HERE DO NOT WANT YOU TO LEAVE.


Good Luck!

Thank You

Return to Kitco Homepage

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 21:58
a.j. (robnoel- I remember when I was 4 and five years old(1934-35). Men were wqorking on the ranches in ) ID#257136:
N.W. Colorado for anywhere from .50 cents to $1.00 per day and their board and room.
The people in Denver were panning gold in CherrY Creek and making about 1.00 per day.
On this, many a family was fed. Today one could pan an approximately equal amount of gold and feed a family on it.
There was no minimum wage in the 30s as nearly as My recollection of history goes.
Not for argument, but perhaps for clarification.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 21:53
Suspicious (To: The Vast Right Wing Conspiricy / Message follows) ID#285121:
Ok comrads, the bimbo thing hasn't been as effective as we hoped. We're bringing out the big guns. Pictures of Slick and the sheep have been mailed to The Washington Post.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 21:51
STUDIO.R (@the still river that quinches my thirst this evening....) ID#288369:
is Tia Maria neat....GO GOLDBOOMERS!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 21:35
sharefin (By John Laird) ID#284255:
Copyright © 1998 sharefin All rights reserved
In The Making Of Man

Four rivers flow from the garden
Four great streams govern the soul.

First and greatest -- Id
The ceaseless flooding flow
Of the deep unconscious self
Source of all fantasy
In the living mind
In deep and hidden tides
All here confined.

Birthplace of all our gods
The deep unfathomed mind
Where all experience abides
And all our fears enshrined.

I AM dwells silent here
I govern all -- a hell
Or heaven on earth as men desire
Within my call.

Then flows the turbulent stream
Of primitive emotion
Conditioned or unconditioned
The hates, the greed, the rages
Lies and false witness -- and pride
Darkest of all follies
Wars and great scandals
All jostle in this turgid stream
Who frolics here his cause is lost
As was Pandora and her fateful box.

And the third great river is action
Fed by the same deep springs
But the waters, clearer by intent
Are governed, and direct us to
The better life; the fields about
Grow fruitful and abundant
These waters nourish all.

Fancy is sublimed to action
Imagination blooms in vision
And creation flowers
All the future is seeded here
And nourished to bring forth
Man's dreams to bright reality.

From the sands of this great river
Is the gold panned -- hard won
Of wisdom -- understanding
And beauty flourish here
And all the works of man's hands
And the vision of his questing mind
Here satisfied.

Prometheus unbound -- and he
Dreamer and maker
Of all that is yet to be.

And the last great stream
Acheron -- no other
No Cerberus here -- but Lethe
Brings forgetfulness of the past life
And the stream moves on
To the unknown goal
A rebirth in some other where.

These waters, mingle and meld
Through all our ways
Claiming last penance
Life's work, life's dreams, life's days
And all achievement
Sad tribute from all men.

Small solace
That all men share such fate
Life beyond Life -- beyond this death
Another birth, another life beyond death's gate.

Through all our myriad
Our diverse and individual ways
Such waters run, the full tides
Flow unceasing through our days.

And some grow swift -- and fair
Nourished by the waters
For seed is fruitful in the fertile mind
And the wide plains grow lush
And beauty flowers there.

And the swift flow and the rush
And the white broken waters
And the dark still deeps
And the placid reaches, sun warmed
Of the four great rivers
Which compass the garden
They are the life and death and birth
Of all mankind. The flow
Of the four great rivers of life
Which set the garden of our world around.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 21:33
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Copyright © 1998 Eldorado/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Panda, all -- Acountry does not NEED to have an above 'amount' of infaltion to experience currency problems. S.E. Asia as an example. Did they experience wholesale inflation before the implosion? Nope. ALL it requires in this 'confidence game' is slightly more sellers than buyers. Now, that'll put a country in dire straights, and all its people will suffer. Bottom line is ALWAYS the percieved ability of DEBT SERVICING! Don't LET that get a 'buck' out of wrack!

You all argue about inflation/deflation. BS! Rather, argue about confidence/no-confidence in repayment of debt. I believe that'll provide you a better handle on the whole situation overall. Now, perhaps inflating the money supply 'may' help 'alleviate' some potential problems, however, that same inflation of money supply MUST and WILL create others. Debt IS debt, and WILL be repaid; In pain, I might add!!!

Until a major society DEMANDS payment in 'reality', AND demands NO interest on its currency usage, NO progress can be made!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 21:31
clone (Pete) ID#267344:
Security is a wonderful thing. I am in a very similar space to you and at times I feel the same. However, insecurity arises in my mind when I begin to consider the fact that my fellow Americans have lost the spirit to defend their Constitutional Rights. I begin to feel very isolated and vulnerable because I care. Very interesting times...
- c

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 21:29
jims (To ARDEN) ID#253418:
Interesting, post, especially as if comes from somebody with geological knowledge. But you write the supply demand deficit is $200 million PER WEEK. Do you mean 200 million ozs. per year. Would appreciate your clarification.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 21:29
Organ (ANOTHER: Some questions for you) ID#162309:
Copyright © 1998 Organ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
For Mr. ANOTHER: First, I would like to thank you for your enlightening THOUGHTS over the past few weeks. They, and the controversy that the generate, are fascinating. I am a novice in the ways of investing and economics, and I seek to know more about your THOUGHTS on the relationship between gold and oil:

1 ) You mention that the U$ is a de facto oil-backed currency. In order for this to be true, there must be a standardized quantity of oil that may be redeemed for all of the U$ floating around. *Is this truly the case?* Or do you call the U$ an oil-backed currency because oil is purchased in units of U$ on world exchanges. If this is what you mean, than you can call the U$ a gold-backed currency, and this seems to fly in the face of considerable evidence to the contrary.

2 ) You indicate that soon we will be witnessing an upheaval in the financial and commodity markets because the oil powers no longer wish the U$ to be backed with oil. *Why is this relationship no longer satisfactory to the oil powers?* Is it because of the relative abundance of U$?

3 ) What is meant by your phrase, oil will bid for ...?

Thank you for your time; I am eagerly waiting on your response

- Organ

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 21:28
sharefin (speed bumps scheduled to take effect April 1) ID#284255:
-
http://www.cme.com/news/cir-pct.html

CME Approves 'Circuit Breaker' Revisions Tagged To Percentage Of Market Decline

March 9, 1998—The Chicago Mercantile Exchange ( CME ) Board of Directors has approved revisions to its circuit breakers for equity indexes traded on the CME. Under the proposal, the trading halts—coordinated with the New York Stock Exchange ( NYSE ) —would be pegged to a percentage decline in the market rather than to the current specific number of index points.

The revisions will expand the level at which trading can take place before a trading halt or circuit breaker is triggered. The levels of the coordinated trading halts on the CME will be tied to proposed halts on the NYSE after 10-, 20- and 30-percent declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA ) . Prevously, the CME's coordinated trading halts at 45 and 70 points of the S&P 500 stock index futures contract have been linked to halts on NYSE after 350- and 550-point drops, respectively, in the DJIA.

CME price limits will expand from their 45- and 70-point levels to 10 and 20 percent of the S&P 500 index. In addition, the exchange is expanding the maximum daily price limit for the contract from the current 90 index points to the 20 percent level, or about 200 points at current index levels.

The circuit breaker levels will be reset to fixed levels quarterly in conjunction with the NYSE on the first day of January, April, July and October.

The NYSE proposal has been published in the Federal Register by the Securities and Exchange Commission for a 21-day public comment period and is scheduled to take effect April 1. The CME has requested approval for its circuit breaker changes from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ( CFTC ) , which regulates futures markets.

Under the CME plan the actual price limits would be set by first calculating a 10-percent coordinated price limit level rounded down to the nearest 10 points. For example, if the average price of the S&P 500 lead futures contract during the previous month were 1054, the 10-percent coordinated price limit would be set at 100 points.

In keeping with the wider circuit breakers, the CME also intends to expand its first two price limits, currently set at 15 and 30 S&P points, to 2.5 and 5 percent, respectively. These speed bumps would continue to be in effect for 10 minutes, during which trading may occur at or above the limit. At the end of the 10 minutes a two-minute trading halt is triggered if the lead month futures contract remains limit offered, or down the specified number of points.

The current 15-point limit for after hours trading on GLOBEX® will be expanded to match the 2.5 percent level of the first speed bump, or about 25 points at current index levels. The GLOBEX limit applies to both increases and decreases in the market.

The CME's 10-percent price limit would result in a trading halt if it occurs before 1:30 p.m. ( Central time ) . Trading would resume if and when 50 percent of the capitalization of the underlying S&P 500 stocks have reopened on the NYSE, as is currently the procedure.

After 1:30 p.m. ( Central time ) the NYSE will not halt trading at the 10-percent level. Therefore, if the CME's 10-percent limit is reached after 1:30 p.m., it becomes a speed bump, in effect for only 10 minutes, with a two-minute trading halt if the market remains limit down at the end of that period.

The Merc's maximum daily price limit of 20 percent would also be coordinated with a NYSE halt. The futures contract would reopen for the remainder of the day with the same limit, if and when 50 percent capitalization of the underlying stocks have reopened.

In addition to the S&P 500 and E-mini S&P 500 futures and options, the revision affects the following CME-traded futures and options which have a similar circuit breaker schedule: Nasdaq 100®, S&P 500/BARRA Growth, S&P 500/BARRA Value, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000® and MMI.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 21:26
aurator () ID#257148:
jims
there's no such site as golden eagle
what you have to do is look for bold eagle but change the b to a g

A few lunations ago there was a disagreement in Asgaard between our host Bart Kitner & Vronsky resulting in a deft piece of programming that inserts an en into golden eagle and a heck of an iconvenience to us mortals.

mortals gathering morsels, as it were. BTW where's mozel?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 21:20
HepMeMoney_Hmm (Oops!) ID#39971:
Copyright © 1998 HepMeMoney_Hmm/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sorry for the DP.

Also,these rumours and opinions on the percentage of ECC reserve holdings

are just that.Everyone one has something to gain or loose with each 5%

adjustment.I don't see the 70% USD as making much sense,both politically

or fundamentally.Remember..we started at gold= zip..then went to 5%,now

15% is getting some air play.Seems to be going up.Yes?Fifteen % or better

is still very bullish.IMHO.Wonder if the US satelites are re-thinking

their past position now and may have to buy back some of the Gold they

were TOLD to sell.We shall see in good time.Tick tock.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 21:20
jims (Help finding golden eagle) ID#253418:
I'm trying and trying to get at the web site for golden eagle. If any body has the the URL could they paste it here. When I try to access www.golden eagle.com I get nothing.

Help

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 21:19
clone (arden...How does one invest in gold in the ground? Please explain...) ID#267344:
- c

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 21:14
Selby (Hey, I'm still regular) ID#286230:
Panda: I just don't much new to say about gold's probable future yet.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 21:07
sharefin (Dow down 20%+++ in a day) ID#284255:
Suspicious
The London curbs were changed late last year.

They talked about changing the Dow curbs last Oct.
And I think they were bought into effect this last month.

I shall see if I can dig them up for you.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:58
STUDIO.R (@Pete......your 20:42....) ID#288369:
Straight and great....your comments show your great heart as well as your fine mind. Now to my liquor cabinent for a fine toast to ya'! Salud! Brother.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:56
Suspicious (Sharefin / Trading curbs, when did or do they take effect ? ) ID#285121:
i

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:54
arden (Hope or hopeless) ID#201238:
Copyright © 1998 arden/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
OLD GOLD - I agree that after the beating gold and gold investors have taken that many here are hopeful of gold going up and yet fear that it is hopeless. I look at the fundamental supply and demand picture from the eyes of a geologist with almost thirty years experience and realize that the picture is so out of balance that one should be acquiring gold in any form and as fast as he can. For me, that form is gold in the ground which is available for as little as one dollar per ounce! For others that me coins or bars or gold stocks, but everyone should be taking a position that fits their personal situation. Gold has only one long term direction from here. The difference between mine supply and world demand is over two hundred million dollars per week. That 'supply' has come from CB sales, forward sales and hedge fund sales. If CB's continue to sell, they will debase their own currencies in the long run, forward sales from producers has been a mixed bag for them ( if they can't deliver - ouch ) but they can only sell their production forward once! Sales by hedge funds must be covered at some time! So for me the answer is very simple.

Gold will go up! I place my efforts in the place with maximum leverage.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:50
sharefin (Trading curbs increased almost 3 fold!!!) ID#284255:
-
Ersel
They just expanded the curbs
From 350 & 500 points
To 10% & 20%

That at todays lofty levels
Would ammount to 900 & 1800 point moves.

London did something similiar
A few months ago.
10% & 20%
( I think from memory )

Now why would they increase the curbs almost 3 fold?
When they are the most concerned
That they have been for a long time.

I think they want the problem
When it arrives
Dealt with quickly.

I think that they would prefer a crash to a bear
As the psychological impact is better.

Compare the notes of people
Who went through the early '30s
To those who experienced the '87 crash

The psychological effects of a true bear are not nice.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:48
Ersel (@ Silverbaron...) ID#228283:

thanx !! Let's see what we can find out. Maybe the payouts are in gold denominated somethings ? bbl

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:46
Lurker 777 (ANOTHER) ID#320226:
Copyright © 1998 Lurker 777/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Another: I would like your 1-3 month outlook on the price of gold. Please understand, I am not asking for any inside information you may have access too only your opinion.

Also, I have difficulty in believing the OIL for Gold scenario because it just seems too big to hide. I have to admit your Jan 10 1998 post was right on but how do we know if the BIS bought gold?

Date: Sat Jan 10 1998 21:03
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
Hear me now, if gold tries to go lower than US$ $280 the BIS will buy it OUTRIGHT in the OPEN for all to see! They must! They will! I know. For no currency system could stand if Oil were to bid for gold!

Lurker 777: Now check out the chart and tell me what you see? After Another announcement Gold SPIKED UP! The charts don't lie! Hmmmmmmm

http:///gold-history/aujan98.gif



I don't know if you are Big Trader or a regular poster at Kitco using a different handle and I guess it really doesn't matter. BUT, I do know I would like break bread with you someday.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:42
Pete (223-ALL-Inflation/deflation debate) ID#222231:
Copyright © 1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
My take on inflation/deflation scenario is as follows:

1 ) - Inflation is being reflected in the equities market..Too much money chasing scarce paper instruments, ergo highly inflated prices for same with unheard of P/E ratios, extremely low dividend yields, future earnings calculated into the mix that boggles the mind for many stocks... Yahoo ( 188 ) , Lucent ( no earnings ) ( 97.25/0=infinity ) to name a few, that will never justify current prices. At least in our lifetimes.

2 ) - The above is a deception that will eventually collapse. A policy by our illustrious gubmnt to make money flow into equities by use of IRA's, 401K's, expetionally low interest rates, mutual funds, control and manipulation of commodities, propaganda and hype by various news services and media, have all contributed to this MANIA.

3 ) - This is the obvert of conditions existing in 70's where inflation showed in commodities in lieu of equities. Noone considers that equities are overpriced, when in fact they should, yes? The average investor considers this a normal investment, no? These investments gives them the illusion of wealth, right LGB?

4 ) - By diverting investment from commodities to equities by various sundry means ( manipulation, controls, conspiracies ( damn, I said that word again, forgive me LGB? ) , noone realizes that the very essence of thier wealth is on the built on a house of cards and unrealistic to the nth degree.

5 ) - ITMW, the majority are living the good life; buying cars, drinking the finest booze, million $ homes mortgaged to the max, living on credit to the hilt because they are so wealthy..just look at thier investments. Any one with common sense and logic can surmise that the party will go on forever, right LGB?

6 ) - All of the above will come to an abrupt end that will be disasterous to the average person ( the majority ) . Those that ignore history of gold and sound money are bound to repeat it.

7 ) - The end will come unexpectedly; higher interest rates; oil shock; war; collapse of $; ad naseum. I'd bet my last dollar on it, for that time is near, nearer than most think. At that time the lemmings will all head for the exits in an instant. When liquidity dries up and thier wealth has gone up in a poof of smoke, how will they pay for those mortgages, those other big ticket items bought on credit, credit cards, corps being sqeezed by illiquidity and all the jobs lost as a result?

COMMENTS:

I'm a simple person of modest wealth. My money was made with sweat and hard work in the construction business for over 30 yrs. I'm not a rocket scientist as some claim, save I'm a professional engr. ( BCE ) . You see, I know what a sewer is, and believe me, we're all heading into the biggest sewer immaginable. I could have gambled heavier in this mania, but chose not to. I have no respect for those that support these gbmnt policies that are bad for this great country, THE USA! I have everything I own paid for in FULL, live in a comfortable but modest home, own 4 cars, food on the table, clothes on my back, booze in the liquor cabinet, a few gold coins for emergencies ( insurance, right LGB? ) , and best of all, my health ( albeit in my GOLDEN years ) and a wonderfull wife and children. I ask everone here, what more could one ask for? LGB, I call that a home run worth more than all of the 1200% gains made on the backs of the little guy.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:42
panda (Further more...) ID#30116:
Another thing that I find somewhat intriguing is the spread between the 30 year long bond and the 90 day T-Bill. It's still under one percent ( 100 basis points ) . Clearly, 'no one' is expecting inflation any time soon. After all, computer prices are still falling. :- ) )

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:41
STUDIO.R (@themissinglink......monkey murderer......) ID#288369:
And exactly where should we put these dead monkeys? That last remark in your 19:37 was deadly....here, here!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:39
HepMeMoney_Hmm (Another Biting Ear) ID#39971:
Copyright © 1998 HepMeMoney_Hmm/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

LGB:That was a good write on your methodology in these markets,and I fear

they are very close to my own.Thus,were I to have written this,I could

not find a reason to deride the local Kitco crew as you wish to.That very

investment philosophy is very close to what many here have expressed with

regard to the Gold market.

1 ) There is little sense to make of it.The numbers do not add up.The facts

are hard to find.We search for answers and direction from many sources.

2 ) The triggering events of the past,both positive and negative,should

have been considered oportunities to buy low--sell high momentum type

investing of varying time projections and expectations.

3 ) Gold,unlike easily manipulated indices and stocks who's company insider

trading is proliferate,does not follow the normal flow of expansion and

contraction.If it did,the supply/demand equation would come into play.We

know all too well this is not the case.

4 ) Gold markets,like the stock markets,have their gurus and forecasters

who make good calls and bad calls.To follow one only is not good practice

To sling abuse at those who make bad calls in either is not productive,as

their next call may be profetic.You have to understand what they are

writing and keep an open mind to decide for yourself if you want to

follow that advise or opinion with action,or sit tight and observe.

Where does this all lead?I think you get the picture.

As we look into the smokey mirror to the past to find clues to the future

those who wish to use history as a guide could somewhat easily build a

case for future price appreciation in Gold.Do keep an open mind sir.

Old Gold: Maybe more would remain positive and post during down days,but

that tends to attract biting ears all too often,and the I told you

so short to medium term traders are a chest thumping phenomina here on

any given day.I don't need the abuse.

A.Goose/Donald:Sorry..got your names mixed up the other day.

Ted: Go @#$%^

PS:LGB......Do use the USA and not we when refering to that

wonderful world you live in.This IS an international forum.Yes?

Thank You!


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:39
HepMeMoney_Hmm (Another Biting Ear) ID#39971:
Copyright © 1998 HepMeMoney_Hmm/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

LGB:That was a good write on your methodology in these markets,and I fear

they are very close to my own.Thus,were I to have written this,I could

not find a reason to deride the local Kitco crew as you wish to.That very

investment philosophy is very close to what many here have expressed with

regard to the Gold market.

1 ) There is little sense to make of it.The numbers do not add up.The facts

are hard to find.We search for answers and direction from many sources.

2 ) The triggering events of the past,both positive and negative,should

have been considered oportunities to buy low--sell high momentum type

investing of varying time projections and expectations.

3 ) Gold,unlike easily manipulated indices and stocks who's company insider

trading is proliferate,does not follow the normal flow of expansion and

contraction.If it did,the supply/demand equation would come into play.We

know all too well this is not the case.

4 ) Gold markets,like the stock markets,have their gurus and forecasters

who make good calls and bad calls.To follow one only is not good practice

To sling abuse at those who make bad calls in either is not productive,as

their next call may be profetic.You have to understand what they are

writing and keep an open mind to decide for yourself if you want to

follow that advise or opinion with action,or sit tight and observe.

Where does this all lead?I think you get the picture.

As we look into the smokey mirror to the past to find clues to the future

those who wish to use history as a guide could somewhat easily build a

case for future price appreciation in Gold.Do keep an open mind sir.

Old Gold: Maybe more would remain positive and post during down days,but

that tends to attract biting ears all too often,and the I told you

so short to medium term traders are a chest thumping phenomina here on

any given day.I don't need the abuse.

A.Goose/Donald:Sorry..got your names mixed up the other day.

Ted: Go @#$%^

PS:LGB......Do use the USA and not we when refering to that

wonderful world you live in.This IS an international forum.Yes?

Thank You!


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:38
sharefin (Email chatter) ID#284255:
-
From International Forcaster

GET OUT OF DENVER!! Denver Municipal Ordinance 37-50 gives Denver police the authority to seize cars, house and other property used in what the officer may determine is an unlawful act. that means the police. who are antii-white,black, red car, sports car, red head, blonde or anti-gun can harass these citizens or gun owners by stopping them for minor traffic infractions and find an excuse to so-called reason to seize their property. Even after the person cited has been cleard of any criminal act, the conficated car or firearms and other private property will not be returned unless the citizen hires an attorney and goes to civil court at considerable time and cost. The new American Fascism marches on. We suggest a move out of Denver.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:36
Silverbaron (Ersel @ BIS shares) ID#288295:

Looks like a division error - should be 250 Francs/share payout. OOpsie! ( ;^ ) )

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:32
Silverbaron (Ersel @ BIS shares for sale!) ID#288295:
I dug this info up for Aurator and posted it this afternoon at 15:33 & 15:42 ... Swiss shares are typically VERY expensive so don't be shocked by the price; it's ok to buy singles or small lots.....Incidentially the balance sheet shows a payout ( in dividends? ) of 132.48 Million Francs, and the number of outstanding shares is 517,125. So if I'm reading this correctly, a share costing 9500 to 10000 Francs gets a dividend of about 2500 Francs!!!! Perhaps this is worth digging into further, especially if we can find out how much gold they own.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:32
panda (Spock) ID#30116:
Copyright © 1998 panda/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I've been around this site for a while, back in the days when Searle, Selby, Front, and Oldman were regulars here. The thing that intrigues me is the mindset that deflation will cause gold to go up. As the price of gold fell, the deflationists took over, so to speak. I suppose one could argue that it was some kind of psychological defense mechanism.

Regardless, the effects of deflation would make the currency more valuable in terms of commodities. The fly in the ointment comes in with the 'definition' of the currency. If the currency is debt backed, it will suffer along with the debtors, for who will pay the taxes owed? Thus, the 'full faith and credit' clause may come in to question. This cannot be allowed. The consequences of allowing this kind of failure would be grievous indeed. The alternative? INFLATE.

On the other hand ( one handed economists excluded ) , a commodity backed or fungible currency WOULD allow true deflation to occur, vis-a-vis 1929. This kind of 'currency' cannot be easily inflated, and its' integrity is not questionable because it is NOT backed by the 'full faith and credit' clause.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:18
EB (*feelings hurt*) ID#230216:
-
Just when I thought that LGB and I were great pals he tells us that he pays NO attention to me. Ouch. My feelings are hurt. I will now take my toys and go home for a nap.......er...cold beer ( yeah that's it ) . A short while, YES.
RJ gives his regards too. He's busy chasing betties on blades. Much too busy for kitco. Can ya' blame him.....red blooded and all, Eh?
away....to sell glasses....anybody want to buy some? It's dead today.... ( ugh )
Éßoredtotears..... ( boo-hoo ) ..... ( tears pouring down face ) .... ( snivel ) ...


go Plat...come on weekend.....YES. OK.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:13
Spock (Panda) ID#210114:
Currency collapses are inflationary. Recessions are deflationary. However if a group of circumstances causes both to happen at the same time its 'stagflation'.

This is Indonesia's problem.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:13
Mo in To (What happened to the collected Korean Gold?) ID#347205:
Aurator,
The info I heard on this was that the tons of gold collected from the citizenry of Korea was melted down and sold in exchange for US bucks, this to help with repayments of US dollar loans. Has anyone heard any different?
Mo in To

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:11
Spock (Neophyte) ID#210114:
After all the euphoria 15% is a bit disappointing, but after rumours of 5% it's still encouraging. While in one sense its understandable that they will hold 70% in $US, on the other it doesn't. Why should people hold Euros if its is backed by $US?

Having said that, let's not confuse 'backing' with foreign reserve holdings.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:11
panda (So this is DEFLATION?) ID#30116:
Let me get this straight.... Indonesia had a currency collapse, which is supposed to be DEFLATIONARY according to the deflationists. Why then, is Indonesia saying that their annual inflation rate is 45% per annum?

Sorry folks, I'm an INFLATIONIST. Credit/money creation is just to easy to do and deflationary consequences are just too politically unpalatable


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:09
Ersel (@John Disney_A...sharefin...aurator....) ID#228283:

John, would you comment on my 04:56 post this morning ?

sharefin...NYSE expanded the trading curbs from 50 to 100 points because of volatility. I guess the way the DOW has been moving 50 points was triggering the cutoffs to often so the program traders couldn't screw the public enough in between stops.

aurator... Did you find out if one can buy shares in BIS ?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:08
Spock (OLG GOLD) ID#210114:
Yes, the USA Gold syte, but also somewhere else which I can't remember.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 20:06
Prometheus (@a. j. ) ID#210235:
Thank you for posting Wm. Safire's editorial. This was the first I read the details of this abuse of executive privilege. No wonder more and more onlookers are seeing Clinton as a ruined president, although he is buying time for himself in the office.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:56
Neophyte (Delphi - ECB gold at 15%) ID#390249:
Thanks for your post. I'm a little disappointed ECB holdings will most likely be 15%. Two months ago I would have been thrilled to hear this but then Mr. Fazio brought up the 30% and I was euphoric. ANOTHER mentioned 15% a while back too. I must admit, it does appear that the final amount will be 15% which isn't too bad.

The 70% dollar backing makes a little more sense after your explanation. Do you know the dollar reserves currently held by Germany, Italy and France. Is it less than 70%. If so, will they have to buy more which will drive the dollar even higher?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:54
Silverbaron (ANOTHER) ID#288295:
A posting from Cressy ( 4/08 19:23 ) alluded to large gold purchases being made today and on Friday. Do you have knowledge of such purchases? Could this posting be one for ears that do not bite? The use of Jackals in the language is not something I would expect from a westerner.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:49
OLD GOLD () ID#238295:
Spock: Are you getting these rumors from the USA gold site? I saw them there -- no where else.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:49
OLD GOLD () ID#238295:
Spock: Are you getting these rumors from the USA gold site? I saw then there -- no where else.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:47
golddkm (South African dividends, and signs of the times...) ID#377196:
Copyright © 1998 golddkm/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I just received a dividend payable in April of .13/share on East Rand Gold and Uranium Co Ltd. The ADR's sell at less than $1.30 so that

qualifies as better than 10%. Citibank, the keeper of the ADR's charges

$30 each time a dividend is mailed out, and it is mailed in an envelope

that makes it look like trash mail. The computer used to print the check

looks like something from the IBM 360's days; ugly! Looking at the date,

I can see that there are only 2 yearly digits. I dare say South African

ADR dividends will be a sure casualty of year 2000 problems, if check

appearances mean anything at all. I think I'll start exchanging for ordinary shares.





DJ to Gold Ratio 29.2

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:41
aurator () ID#257148:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
ANOTHER
Many months ago, I fancy before you fell across our little corner of this sweet gold world, LGB was sailing close to the wind of decency and proprietary with his messages here. This was just after the first poster, Hepcat, was expelled for foulness of tongue. LGB posted on this board that he thought he had been censored. Allen @USA & I both quickly sprang to LGB's side and defence we believe in freedom of expression. LGB later turned and bit this hand that helped him.

Please pass on by such as he.

As far as I remember, mine is the only question you have declined to answer directly. Some weeks ago I asked you if you knew what happened to the gold collected in Korea. Do you have any knowledge of this?

This kitco is some interesting place when the testosterone is kept under control.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:41
a.j. (Another attack on the Constitution!! By the judiciary, no less!!) ID#257136:
http://headlines.yahoo.com/nyt/09safi.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:41
Spock (Runbin, Bretton Woods II and Gold) ID#210114:
Keeping hearing rumours about a new Bretton Woods agreement and an official role for gold in the international financial system. Has anyone got any hard facts

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:40
STUDIO.R (@henryd......) ID#288369:
I believe Another was saying that he uses an interpreter and he has told this writer to carefully choose words that do not offend Kitco readers.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:37
OLD GOLD () ID#238295:
LGB: I play gold stictly through the PM mutual funds.

Arden: It is my considered opinion that most on this site HOPE gold will go up big time. But I suspect that most worry deep down that RJ and EB are right and that POG ain't going to do much for quite some time.

EB: I'm sure you'll be happy to know that I gave back some of last week's gains this week. I'm playing this for the big move and not the weekly fluctuations. And I expect to have seven figure profits when gold gets up to the $380 area.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:37
themissinglink (Smart Monkeys) ID#373403:
Copyright © 1998 themissinglink/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I think it is hilarious watching the ego's battle it out trying to be the investment mavens. There seem to be many on Kitco who dream of selling their opinions in a newsletter or website or just want others to hang on their advice for ego sake. They deride others for making bad calls and recall their own foresight and good advice.

Why don't you all chill out, no one asked for investment advice. If you give good advice others will recognize it without you beating your chest and shouting jungle calls about how smart you are.

Most people smart enough to recognize gold as a good investment during these low gold times do not need much investment advice. Think about it.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:35
henryd__A (All - : ANOTHER) ID#34857:
I'm not the brightest guy here, but this sounds ominous:

ANOTHER writes: I do instruct another to send my thoughts where ears do not bite!


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:34
Spock (Easter and the Asian Markets.) ID#210114:
Are the Asian markets open on Friday and Monday? Or are they following their western Christian counterparts and closing for easter

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:29
Spock (OLD GOLD and True Believers) ID#210114:
It is quite appropriate that views change when market prices change. You shouldn't BELIEVE in anything except hard headed decisions based on facts; not whims.

Invest with your head; not with your heart.

This is not the X Files.


I DON'T WANT TO BELIEVE

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:22
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Copyright © 1998 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mr. LGB,

I did come to Kitco with only my THOUGHTS to share. This thinking was offered to all and is as free as the wind. Even as my writings were discussed by many, I did never find you to be a fraud or a hoxier, as your words were offered with good intent. Please, find my words of record that were spoken against you, and show them, here?

I find not the reason for your purpose of speech! It offers a nature of confrontation and disruption for persons of simple ways and thoughts, such as I. As you have your direction for life, I have a purpose in life.

I wish you the blessing, to walk tall with wealth, for all your days, that one may complete the journey that is given for all to travel. I do instruct another to send my thoughts where ears do not bite!

Good Luck!

Thank You

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:16
Delphi (@farfel, 18:51) ID#258129:
Copyright © 1998 Delphi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I didn’t mean to teach you, sorry, if you took it in this way. The thing is, that no matter, what are the methods - technical analysis or fundamental analysis, or astrology or simply trust or whatever - nobody knows the future. But at the same time we all know that market is possible to manipulate and drive price up or down for some time. That’s all I am saying - there is obvious interest of people who wrote these contracts to drive it down in May. And I doubt that all these hundreds of 100 oz contracts where written by dummies.
I shall quit now - 1:15 am here, so if you reply I shall answer tomorrow. Good night.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:15
Poorboys (Thank You Kitco ---Best Page on the net --For Gold Whatever ?) ID#224149:
All –Happy Easter ----Ted –Let the money Flow –Oh My –Drinks on the house ---Away to count the profits -----Who knows about anything ---Maybe God has blessed this generation ---

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:13
zeke (Thanks f*) ID#307271:
Thanks farfel for all your generosity and encouragment...and may you be passed over also. Jeshua!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:10
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (HERR FARFEL!) ID#431263:
Good post, mein Herr! Will await your post-resurrection appearances on this site! May the price of gold ascend to the heavens together with JC!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:09
pyramid (South African Mining Stocks) ID#217268:
If ABX, NEM and HM are the big three of gold mining stocks able to be purchased on the major stock exchanges, what are the big three South African Gold Mining shares able to be purchased on these same exchanges ?

Any help would be appreciated.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:01
farfel (@ALL...the wife and I are taking a short, little, holiday trip so..) ID#340302:
...HAPPY EASTER and HAPPY PASSOVER!!!!!

May the celebration of JC's resurrection augur a resurrection for the GOLD & SILVER markets and...

May the Angel of Death passover the PM's markets.

Thanks.

Love ya...

F*

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:00
geoffs (Is this Dude----Another--for real $9000.00 bj July 4th/98 ) ID#432157:


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:53
farfel (@JIMS...just read the news, my friend....) ID#340302:
...and get in touch with Brookings and the Rand and see if you can access some of the economics research papers into the subject.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:52
JTF (Heading Home -- Glamis, and the mystery of the BIS gold ownership) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Myrmidon, aurator: Thanks for the quick response on Glamis. I think they are well run, with low overhead, but I am less knowledgable about such matters than you and others on Kitco.

LGB: I'm sorry you did not get my point. Why don't you reread todays posts when you are having a good day? Notice some cyclical behavior?

SDRer, All: I have Sutton's 'War on Gold' at home ( written about 1973 ) . Has quite a bit on the BIS - will read it carefully. Interestingly the BIS had a Belgian Chairman in the 70's -- with direct Rothschilds connections, and was at odds with the US/IMF in regard to moving farther away from a gold standard. Also, apparently the US was up to its eyeballs in debt even at that time, and everyone except the BIS 'looked the other way'. Apparently the BIS threatened to call in some kind of US debt chips, and got the US/IMF to compromise, and include some pro-gold provisions in at least one of the post-Bretton Woods meetings. According to Sutton, during the 70's there was much talk that the BIS would be the European central bank. So, as Casey Stengel would say, 'its deja vu all over again'.

With regard to CB gold loans and gold 'owed' to the BIS I have found nothing that directly relates to aurators and SilverBarons comments from yesterday. Even in the 70's, the BIS had the provision to 'buy gold for itself and the CB's' when the US was selling through the Gold Pool. It seems apparent to me that it is very hard to tell whether the gold bought by the BIS actually belongs to the BIS, or to the member banks. It is entirely possible that the BIS owns far more gold than we realize, and that several CB's hold it for the BIS. Could this be the same as 'owe it to the BIS'? I don't know.

If I understand aurators comments from this early am about recent ( early 1990's ) massive gold buying by the BIS, we again have the problem of knowing whether the BIS was actually buying gold for other central banks, or for itself.

So -- in my mind at least -- I think the official gold reserves at the BIS may be much less than the 'true' amount the BIS owns. This would make sense, given who calls the shots at the BIS -- a Rothschild. Just where would the Rothschilds keep most of their gold? In a wine cellar in France? Or would be be better kept as a 'chip to call in' at some Central Bank?

Just some food for thought!


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:51
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (HERR MYR!) ID#431263:
Copyright © 1998 GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If'n you bought 4,000 shares of Vengold at 1 3/16 then you will be pleased to note that you are now $250 RICHER! Closed today at 1 1/4 on 21,900 shares. You can thank me later! I'm in no hurry since I made 6 times that much +! : )

PS-By the way, check out Vengold's website at www.vengold.com and clik on the news announcement that came out on April 6. Vengold is raising $46 MILLION DOLLARS US ( 25 MILLION shares @ $1.83 US ) to buy MORE LIHIR and other corporate bargains! This will give Vengold @$60 MILLION US to enhance shareholder value with! The slowest takeover in mining history continues full speed ahead! Wiedersehen!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:51
farfel (@DELPHI...you never cease to amuse me...) ID#340302:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Having played options for some 20 years, I always get a great kick whenever someone comes along to provide me an education.

Howver, meditate on this for a whle:

During trend shifts ( and as you know, that is what I am positing is occuring now in the gold market, i.e., a gold bear turning to a gold bull ) , a good deal of options writing is often carried out by non-professionals.

Secondly, even if the majority of the options writing were in fact professional, again, during a trend shift there are often many professionals that find themselves on the wrong side of the fence. Again, as per my previous post, look how many professionals are influenced by technical analysis ( which as you know, I determined is unable to accurately forecast significant trend shifts )

Why don't you provide us a breakdown of these options writers by institution, company, and individual? I think it would prove most enlightening.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:44
jims (Farel:Asian Currency Alignment) ID#252391:
Where do you get this idea that the Asians are going to put together some form of currency alignment based on gold Nowhere have I heard anything about that other than in your writings. If there is any basis in fact on this I would be most interested in knowing so.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:32
223 (farfel re 17:07 post on innacuracy of predictions I'm a believer too.) ID#26669:
The hopelessness of predicting a chaotic transformation with medieval math ie various wave functions and Fibonocci series makes me through the years more and more of a fundamentalist for major decisions and a gradualist in buying. Dollar cost averaging with a multiyear time horizon especially for such a volatile investment as gold is good...IMHO

BTW I forgot the :^ ) in my last post. Didn't Faulkner go to Harvard?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:31
Ted (Robnoel....lead & Another.....and strange encounters of a 3rd kind) ID#330175:
no surprisingly he didn't....um....every time the subject of LEAD was brought up an even stranger expression passed his furrowed brow ( with beads of sweat on it ) -- ( kinda like what 'Tricky' had on his upper lip,eh! ) ....like I said,very weird scene ( certainly not one you would expect in Cape Breton of all places....God only knows what he thinks ( ? ) of lead---sorry I couldn't have been of more help but what-else is new,huh.......

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:24
Delphi (@Farfel, 17:50) ID#258129:
People, who write options usually are not crowd. Mostly, they are professionals. If they write new May 305 and 310 calls in April, they expect them to expire worthless.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:24
robnoel__A (Ted.....$9000.00 gold..did he say anything about lead) ID#410198:
.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:21
Ted ('Kitco news'.................................................Go $@$%^&*) ID#330175:
Another stopped over today ( pretty weird dude,eh ) ......he now thinks his 3,000/oz gold is a tad on the low-side and is now callin for gold @ 9,000 ( before the July 4th holiday,huh ) ....I can only believe him!!!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:13
JP (Bank of Japan dollar sales very bullish for GOLD) ID#253153:
Today , the BOJ was selling dollars on the open market in order to surpress the rising dollar and increase the yen value. Dollars sales by CB
are bullish for gold because it will accelerate the deflationary trend. When CB sell dollars they decrease their own money supply . In order to sell dollars they probably had to sell some US treasuries. I also think that other central banks will begin shortly to sell their hoard of US treasuries. The deflationary trend is intensifying .Gold is experiencing a small correction and will resume it's upward move soon.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:13
Servhard (to All-+kitcat) ID#287193:
Copyright © 1998 Servhard/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Hallo to all. This is a fine discussion group. Fine. Like in finemetals. You will soon find out
That English is not my first language.
After lurking for over a year on and off, I am not only impressed with the expertise of most of you
But also with the quality and variety of opinions on anything from politics to theologies, from
Common sense to outspoken philosophies. One thing I have in common with most of you --
I respect PM. Having some gold among ones belongings, I hold for very prudent.
Since the markets are closed for a few days, it may be a good time to rest, to reflect, and to have
'Thoughts'.
I believe 'ANOTHER' is very easy to understand and to interpret, when one thinks about his
Headline 'Thoughts'. Even very good advice given or taken requires thoughts--lots of them.
'Thoughts' also provide a good hiding place. For good reasons we all have hard to identify
passwords and aliases. Another is as good as another's is. I believe that thoughts come out
of the inner sanctions of ones personality and once let loose and out of the bag, they are not
to be compared with published articles or academic papers. However, being democratic and free is
Kitco. Or?
Kitcat, answer to your question:
RPP has 742 455 987 million shares outst..
On Dec16/97 the shares were down to .10 -the next day 78 211 650 shares traded . Going in at
That price would have beaten all PM's. Templeton Management and Toronto Dominion Bank
Holding together over 25%.
CTR is tightly held with low float. Many funds hold what they have. A jump of Can.$2.00 on low vol.-
nothing special.
Hallo to all. This is a fine discussion group. Fine. Like in finemetals. You will soon find out
That English is not my first language.
After lurking for over a year on and off, I am not only impressed with the expertise of most of you
But also with the quality and variety of opinions on anything from politics to theologies, from
Common sense to outspoken philosophies. One thing I have in common with most of you --
I respect PM. Having some gold among ones belongings, I hold for very prudent.
Since the markets are closed for a few days, it may be a good time to rest, to reflect, and to have
'Thoughts'.
I believe 'ANOTHER' is very easy to understand and to interpret, when one thinks about his
Headline 'Thoughts'. Even very good advice given or taken requires thoughts--lots of them.
'Thoughts' also provide a good hiding place. For good reasons we all have hard to identify
passwords and aliases. Another is as good as another's is. I believe that thoughts come out
of the inner sanctions of ones personality and once let loose and out of the bag, they are not
to be compared with published articles or academic papers. However, being democratic and free is
Kitco. Or?
Kitcat, answer to your question:
RPP has 742 455 987 million shares outst..
On Dec16/97 the shares were down to .10 -the next day 78 211 650 shares traded . Going in at
That price would have beaten all PM's. Templeton Management and Toronto Dominion Bank
Holding together over 25%.
CTR is tightly held with low float. Many funds hold what they have. A jump of Can.$2.00 on low vol.-
nothing special.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:11
arden (Old Gold) ID#201238:
There are more than a few of us who believe that gold is going to go up substantially. The difference is that we are doing something about it, putting our time, our efforts and our resources into building a company with a clear vision, a vision of clarity.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:11
JTF (What does a $600/oz gold price mean?) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: We may be able to get some perspective by imagining what would happen if gold was $600/oz, instead of approx $300/oz. This way we can get some idea of how hard 'the powers that be' will try to prevent the inevitable.

For example, this means that imported oil prices and probably imported commodity prices would double. This would be a major event, and very traumatic, so you can bet that the 'powers that be' will do everything in their power to prevent the inevitable. So delaying tactics are the name of the game. Hence, it is likely that the stock market bubble will 'pop' about the time this paradigm shift finally occurs, and the average 'Joe' -- as they say -- realizes that he has been lied to. Needless to say, the result is likely to be catastrophic.

So we know what will happen, and there is nothing the likes of AG can do ( no matter how competent he is ) , except try to contain the stock market bubble, and hope for the best.

If he wishes to have an unblemished record at the end of his career, my guess is that he will retire before y2k, IHMO. Personally, I hope he hangs in there, for all of our sakes -- as a graceful bubble burst is desirable -- if he can carry it off. By the way, he was at the helm during the 1987 crash.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:07
Ted (@ Cape Breton) ID#330175:
spectacular sunset----Scaterie Island has that almost-GOLDen color...hmmmmm---musac & CNBC ( muTED,eh ) share 'the scene'....cnbc comin in last....bla bla bla ( what are they sayin? ) ....'chains, my babies got MOI locked up in chains'
....'and they ain't the kind ya can see'----go $@#%^&*

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:06
arden (comex warehouse stocks) ID#201238:
Both gold and silver stocks at comex were sharply unchanged today.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:05
LGB (@ OLD Gold) ID#269409:
And what would your picks be for Gold Mining shares Most likely to succeed?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:04
robnoel__A (Lock & Load.. sorry about the confussion....I should try and remember you guys were out of the gold ) ID#410198:
market for 42 years....

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:01
LGB (@ DA...today's Silver action) ID#269409:
Looks like your 09:23 was close to the money...silver made a late session comeback, as it has several of the past few days, didn't reach the $6.50 but were we seeing exercising? Interested in your final take.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 18:00
OLD GOLD () ID#238295:
The recent gold stock correction is not surprising. Gold stock indexes had risen four times as much as bullion ( percent ) from the lows. The rule of thumb is that a three to one ratio is more appropriate. So the gold stocks had gotten ahead of themselves and this pullback was to be expected. Probably a bit more to go before we are done.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:58
chas (223 re century in Tex) ID#342282:
I spent 7 months in San Angelo in 52. Everything had to be trucked in including S O S. I appreciate

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:53
223 (Inflation/deflation debate:) ID#26669:
I thought someone might like this analogy to the continuing inflation/deflation debate. Go gold!

Two blondes were walking through the woods and they came to some
tracks. The first blond said These look like deer tracks, and the
other one said, No, they look like moose tracks. They argued and
argued for a long while and they were still arguing when the train hit them.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:52
Ted (TO GSC) ID#330175:
huh

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:51
JTF (Equilibrium price for gold -- what is it?) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: Here is a little positive feedback on a 'wall of worry' day. I calculated nearly two years ago that the 'equilibrium' price of gold was about $650/oz, by taking the consumer price index and its predecessors for the last 100 years, ignoring the gold 'blip' in 1980. ( Hard for a gold bug to do that ) .

What I find interesting is that my $650/oz gold calculation nearly matches Frank Veneroso's prediction of a $600/oz equilibrium price.

So --- all we have to do is sit back and wait for the 'political' effects on the price of gold to wear off -- and we will be well rewarded. Unfortunately we will have to be patient, as a whole orchestrated belief system will have to unravel first, probably in some non-linear catastrophic manner. In fact, if history repeats itself, a more logical peak gold price will be $1000/oz in the next 5 years or so, with the spot gold price settling down to a steady $600/oz some time thereafter.

This $600 value assumes that the current inflation indicators are not 'rigged', and there is no more inflation. Otherwise, the equilibrium price will be higher. By the way, I am confident that we are having inflation higher than the 'official' numbers, which are cooked simply to reduce government payments linked to the CPI. I think one useful reliable index that is not 'cooked'is the JCI, but I have never been able to find this on the net in a readily downloadable fashion. Last I heard, Kaplan ( I think ) said that the JCI was trending up -- inflationary.

Hope this helps the gold worriers. Patience is a virtue.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:51
Lock&Lode (@robnoel -- You mixed your metaphors: 1930 and $20 St Gaudens...) ID#266110:
and $5/day. How was I supposed to know that 2 out of 3 were 1930 denominated while the $20 St G was 1998 denominated? I had to re-read your last post 3 times to understand the $500 correlation to the $20 St Gaudens. That is... If I understand you correctly now.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:50
OLD GOLD (True Believers) ID#238295:
Bullish sentiment on this site may be a mile wide but it is only an inch deep. Plenty of bullish posta when gold and gold stocks are rallying. But let a modest correction develop and the bulls evaporate like water on the desert eith a few notable exceptions. My conclusion -- few on this site REALLY BELIEVE that gold will soar over the long term.

And if true believers are few and far between even here, this species is close to extinct. Very bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:50
farfel (It's all in the interpretation...GOLD OPTIONS INFO VERY BULLISH!) ID#340302:
Delphi wrote:

In practically only one popular May put series - 305 - number of contracts dropped from 801 to 407 ( and that is not bullish ) . So, in last three days some shift happened - people who write options consider now that at the day of expiration of May options Gold spot will be close to ( and probably, bit under ) 310.

F* writes:

In a trend shift from a bear to a bull or vice versa, thankfully, the crowd is ALWAYS wrong.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:45
Ted (XAU down 2.96) ID#330175:
.07 from low

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:45
223 (Spudmaster, I once spent a few hundred years in North Texas) ID#26669:
Copyright © 1998 223/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Actually if was only a few weeks in a military training camp. As I recall though except for beef and fresh seasonal vegetables everything, even building supplies had to be trucked into town. Which brings to mind one of the wild cards for our continuing inflation discussion: trucking and transportation costs. In the interim since I was in Texas a lot has changed to make the rest of the US like that isolated road-dependant area. Like all our factories moving overseas, all our veggies coming from California and south America and all our wood being sent to Red China to be pressed into particle board to be made into furniture in Korea then sent back home.

I wonder if there are any kitcoites out there who are in the transportation industry and who could give us information about what inflationary/deflationary factors there are looming on the horizon. It would be good to have a few weeks notice if any big chunks of stuff are ready to hit the fan.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:44
robnoel__A (LGB...your thesis is based on America remaining free and independent) ID#410198:
sure hope you are right,I have my doubts,Clinton wants fast track to pass Multilaterial Agreement on Investments,and if you are not aware the UN is now dictating policy,call me a conspiracy nut,having lost my country to the UN could it happen here,with this guy in power,you make the call

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:44
Delphi (Gold options data) ID#258129:
Copyright © 1998 Delphi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Interesting thing is happening with Gold options according to Router. I have post some figures on Apr 6, three days later picture for May is significantly different. ( each contract = 100 ounce )
Totals: Calls Puts
Apr 6 1035 961
Apr 9 868 561
So, open interest is going down for both calls and puts. Most deep out-of-money contracts are gone, but not only. Companies who wrote at-the-money contracts are closing 305 and open more 310 and 315 contracts ( and hope to win ) .
Calls 305 310
Apr 6 560 316
Apr 9 7 709
In practically only one popular May put series - 305 - number of contracts dropped from 801 to 407 ( and that is not bullish ) . So, in last three days some shift happened - people who write options consider now that at the day of expiration of May options Gold spot will be close to ( and probably, bit under ) 310.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:43
Open-Loop (@Lock&Lode... The problem with the Japanese...) ID#176200:
Thanks for pointing me to that post. I dont think they are just
scenarios. Much of that I feel is based in reality and you are
probably very close to the truth.
The Japanese are a people of honor and will find it difficult to
swallow the papering over of thier problems as evidence of all
the suicides in the financial sector there these days.
They could be the pivitol trigger in the MELTDOWN!

Thanks

not speaking for my employer

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:43
sam (aurator) ID#288140:
I hope so, I bought some DROOY & RANGY on BJD's analysis.

BTW What about you; are you an ornithologist?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:40
Ted (Aurator) ID#330175:
G'Day mate~~~~~~

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:34
LGB (@ Birdman.... Strategy) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Hmmm, overall investment strategy eh? You’ll really provide fodder for the LGB detractors with that question, but let me make no apologies for that which has served me well.

First, “world view”. I believe we are domestically and globally enjoying the most prosperous times in history, partly as a result of advancements in technology , societal and political sea changes, AND economic policies which INCLUDE some level of fiat currency flexibility. ( Which has fueled our long term expansion since the great depression ) .

However, I also believe we’re in for a major economic and stock market correction in the intermediate future, keeping much of my powder pretty dry for that day. I think the record is clear that PM’s have been a horrible investment/insurance policy/store of value/safe haven for 2 decades, but that trend has now run it’s course. I believe apocalyptic changes around the first decade of 21st century are quite possible , perhaps probable. Economic conditions and fundamentals are changing as quickly as shifting sanddunes, thus “absolutes” , and many historical precedents have little meaning in planning for the future.

All this said, my investment philosophy is based first and foremost on capitalizing on the current trend, while always preparing for total changes in future strategy. I place little faith in classic investment “value analysis” when it comes to issues such as P/E ratios, dividend yields, and other classic valuations. The market has already proven that such concepts have little meaning in today’s climate. I wish they did, but they DON’T. I have even less faith in most long term “Tech. analysis” such as “K” and “E” wave theories, which have shown themselves to be of very little credibility in the past few decades.

Likewise, the vast majority of “credentialed” analysts have shown themselves to be incapable of outguessing the broad market trends by even the slightest margin. This has been true in mega study after megastudy, in virtually EVERY type of market, including metals, currencies, commodities. Of course, there IS the occasional genius who emerges with uncannily, consistently accurate market calls. THOSE are the analysts to whom I pay heed, Bob Brinker comes to mind. A guy who uses common sense and real world analysis, to evaluate the big picture.

So, what investment philosophy to follow and what tools to use? For me, I adhere to NO rigid formula, or combination of same, subscribe to NO dogmatic theory, follow NO single analyst’s advice, and believe in NO fanatical prognostications, on EITHER side of any particular market.

My basic strategy breaks down this way;

* Protect gains with conservative, high risk/reward ratio allocations.

Thus, NO derivatives or other potentially unrecoverable, or highly speculative positions.

* Diversify.

( Currently about 30% cash, 30% physical metals mostly silver, 20% in company stock. 20% discretionary money’s used for short term spec. “plays” in mining shares, high tech, stocks, low cap. stocks, etc. )

* Go with the trend.

I stuck with the Bull stock market, close to 100% invested from 1980 on, until we hit 8100 last August. This was mostly based on a long term Reagonomics expansion, which included money supply expansion with “relatively” low inflation, and all the attendant economic strength we’ve seen as a result.

* Momentum, and volatility plays.

As stated above, I sue about 20% of my total investment portfolio to make momentum and volatility plays. Made a lot in “VCLL” the past few months by purchasing at 1.25 and selling above 2.00, have done the same with some other stocks as well, including Sunshine Mining which I was buying at .8 and selling at 1.2 several times until it broke high after the Buffet news ( which break I missed! ) . This strategy has been highly profitable but I’m not a true “Momentum” investor, since I’m doing it generally over days, not minutes or hours, and using a small percentage of my funds. Again, fairly conservative.

On the riskier side, I was trying to “time” the market for about 3 years now, moving fairly large chunks in and out of mutual funds and my own company stock, into money market fund and back based on short term trends. Made some of my very best gains this way, but it has been a departure from earlier “Buy and hold”.

This part of my strategy has simply been trying to identify specific events, and capitalizing on them immediately. For example, when the FED raised rates last April, I bailed from my mutuals that day, and got back in after approx. 18% retracement. Made many plays like this in past 3 years and it has provided a big boost to capital. Even now as I sit on the sidelines of Mutual funds as “long term”, I have been making occasional 2 or 3 day forays in and out. Have done the same with my company stock, often based on, uhhhh, ummm, PUBLICLY disclosed info. that I know is going to move our shares a good deal one way or the other. ( New orders, Upcoming launch, lost Asian orders, new partnership deals, RIF’s, etc etc. )

About 40% of my total investment assets have been wielded about, in frequent trade, in this manner the past 3 years. With about an 80% success rate at major gains when betting the “plus” side, and 70% success rate at guessing the “down” side by selling prior to a dip. I’ve made about 90% more than I would have had I stuck with “Buy and hold” ......until the past 2 months when I missed the broad market move entirely ( but made plenty in company stock gains )

* Change strategy in an instant, if fundamentals change.

When the Asian crises was looming, and there was little “good” economic news left to fuel further Equity market increases, I bailed from mutuals. ( Perhaps a bit prematurely, ) . At the same time, I started looking more closely at metals and determined silver was undervalued and poised for gains. Apparently, I was in good company at the time, without knowing it.

If I see major shifts in economic data, world economic conditions, etc., I won’t hesitate to change course in an instant if need be. Unlike many here, I will never become wedded to any dogmatic point of view re fiat currency’s relative value in the world, looming bubble market crashes, ( or endless hyperbolic gains for that matter ) etc etc.

I try and keep all emotion OUT of my investment decisions at all times. Thus my fondness for a hefty Gold “Saint”, and my natural antipathy toward deficit Govt. spending, does not influence my belief in POG trends, or Equity trends....

* Keep research very broadly based, and very common sense.

I voraciously devour the info. in “Wall St. Journal”, this “Kitco” board, the “Silicon Investor” website , “Motley Fool” website ( great for small cap picks ) Yahoo business news and research, several other websites which are oft quoted here and elsewhere, several periodicals , and the occasional authored volume . For metals analysts, and metal shares, I consistently read Kaplan’s site, this board, Reuters releases, the WGC site, SI, and occasionally some lesser sites such as Kosares, and the mining news sites. Most of my favorite links can be found at http://goldsheet.simplenet.com/

If I’m making a spec. play on an individual stock, I always call the company in question and try and find an honest VP who will answer my questions re their financials, and current prospects for growth, etc.

* Tools, pretty basic.

I use the basic historical graphs provided in Yahoo research , Kitco, SI, and downloaded historical graphs from other sources. I use my own Excel spreadsheets to track my investments, and create some simple graphs. I have no love for advanced or even basic tech, analysis. It’s been my experience that those who put much weight in those tools in today’s market ( other than SHORT term, professional traders ) have had a rather abysmal track record. Several folks here come to mind, but in the interest of peace, I shan’t name names. Moving averages , break out points, head & shoulders curves, etc. are interesting, I look at them, but give them minor weighting.

* Market psychology, new trends, changes in economic policy.

These are issues I try and track very closely. For example, the highly investor favorable 401K legislation passed in the 80’s, has led to a completely different type of investor in today’s stock market. PC’s in every home, and access to real time economic and market info. is another huge change. The markets will never return to their knee jerk, moves out of ignorance patterns of earlier decades. Not to say ignorance, fear, and greed and cycles don’t play a role today, they DO certainly, just not to the same degree they once did.

OK, I could drone on incomprehensibly for awhile but this is basically it. As you see, my approach is NOT formulaic, or systematic. Ironic for a believer in science, but you see, I consider the markets as dynamic forces these days, which are not subject to absolutes we once relied on. Let the derision begin...... Basic though it is, unscientific though it may be, all this has served me well.



Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:31
LGB (@ Birdman.... Strategy) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Hmmm, overall investment strategy eh? You’ll really provide fodder for the LGB detractors with that question, but let me make no apologies for that which has served me well.

First, “world view”. I believe we are domestically and globally enjoying the most prosperous times in history, partly as a result of advancements in technology , societal and political sea changes, AND economic policies which INCLUDE some level of fiat currency flexibility. ( Which has fueled our long term expansion since the great depression ) .

However, I also believe we’re in for a major economic and stock market correction in the intermediate future, keeping much of my powder pretty dry for that day. I think the record is clear that PM’s have been a horrible investment/insurance policy/store of value/safe haven for 2 decades, but that trend has now run it’s course. I believe apocalyptic changes around the first decade of 21st century are quite possible , perhaps probable. Economic conditions and fundamentals are changing as quickly as shifting sanddunes, thus “absolutes” , and many historical precedents have little meaning in planning for the future.

All this said, my investment philosophy is based first and foremost on capitalizing on the current trend, while always preparing for total changes in future strategy. I place little faith in classic investment “value analysis” when it comes to issues such as P/E ratios, dividend yields, and other classic valuations. The market has already proven that such concepts have little meaning in today’s climate. I wish they did, but they DON’T. I have even less faith in most long term “Tech. analysis” such as “K” and “E” wave theories, which have shown themselves to be of very little credibility in the past few decades.

Likewise, the vast majority of “credentialed” analysts have shown themselves to be incapable of outguessing the broad market trends by even the slightest margin. This has been true in mega study after megastudy, in virtually EVERY type of market, including metals, currencies, commodities. Of course, there IS the occasional genius who emerges with uncannily, consistently accurate market calls. THOSE are the analysts to whom I pay heed, Bob Brinker comes to mind. A guy who uses common sense and real world analysis, to evaluate the big picture.

So, what investment philosophy to follow and what tools to use? For me, I adhere to NO rigid formula, or combination of same, subscribe to NO dogmatic theory, follow NO single analyst’s advice, and believe in NO fanatical prognostications, on EITHER side of any particular market.

My basic strategy breaks down this way;

* Protect gains with conservative, high risk/reward ratio allocations.

Thus, NO derivatives or other potentially unrecoverable, or highly speculative positions.

* Diversify.

( Currently about 30% cash, 30% physical metals mostly silver, 20% in company stock. 20% discretionary money’s used for short term spec. “plays” in mining shares, high tech, stocks, low cap. stocks, etc. )

* Go with the trend.

I stuck with the Bull stock market, close to 100% invested from 1980 on, until we hit 8100 last August. This was mostly based on a long term Reagonomics expansion, which included money supply expansion with “relatively” low inflation, and all the attendant economic strength we’ve seen as a result.

* Momentum, and volatility plays.

As stated above, I sue about 20% of my total investment portfolio to make momentum and volatility plays. Made a lot in “VCLL” the past few months by purchasing at 1.25 and selling above 2.00, have done the same with some other stocks as well, including Sunshine Mining which I was buying at .8 and selling at 1.2 several times until it broke high after the Buffet news ( which break I missed! ) . This strategy has been highly profitable but I’m not a true “Momentum” investor, since I’m doing it generally over days, not minutes or hours, and using a small percentage of my funds. Again, fairly conservative.

On the riskier side, I was trying to “time” the market for about 3 years now, moving fairly large chunks in and out of mutual funds and my own company stock, into money market fund and back based on short term trends. Made some of my very best gains this way, but it has been a departure from earlier “Buy and hold”.

This part of my strategy has simply been trying to identify specific events, and capitalizing on them immediately. For example, when the FED raised rates last April, I bailed from my mutuals that day, and got back in after approx. 18% retracement. Made many plays like this in past 3 years and it has provided a big boost to capital. Even now as I sit on the sidelines of Mutual funds as “long term”, I have been making occasional 2 or 3 day forays in and out. Have done the same with my company stock, often based on, uhhhh, ummm, PUBLICLY disclosed info. that I know is going to move our shares a good deal one way or the other. ( New orders, Upcoming launch, lost Asian orders, new partnership deals, RIF’s, etc etc. )

About 40% of my total investment assets have been wielded about, in frequent trade, in this manner the past 3 years. With about an 80% success rate at major gains when betting the “plus” side, and 70% success rate at guessing the “down” side by selling prior to a dip. I’ve made about 90% more than I would have had I stuck with “Buy and hold” ......until the past 2 months when I missed the broad market move entirely ( but made plenty in company stock gains )

* Change strategy in an instant, if fundamentals change.

When the Asian crises was looming, and there was little “good” economic news left to fuel further Equity market increases, I bailed from mutuals. ( Perhaps a bit prematurely, ) . At the same time, I started looking more closely at metals and determined silver was undervalued and poised for gains. Apparently, I was in good company at the time, without knowing it.

If I see major shifts in economic data, world economic conditions, etc., I won’t hesitate to change course in an instant if need be. Unlike many here, I will never become wedded to any dogmatic point of view re fiat currency’s relative value in the world, looming bubble market crashes, ( or endless hyperbolic gains for that matter ) etc etc.

I try and keep all emotion OUT of my investment decisions at all times. Thus my fondness for a hefty Gold “Saint”, and my natural antipathy toward deficit Govt. spending, does not influence my belief in POG trends, or Equity trends....

* Keep research very broadly based, and very common sense.

I voraciously devour the info. in “Wall St. Journal”, this “Kitco” board, the “Silicon Investor” website , “Motley Fool” website ( great for small cap picks ) Yahoo business news and research, several other websites which are oft quoted here and elsewhere, several periodicals , and the occasional authored volume . For metals analysts, and metal shares, I consistently read Kaplan’s site, this board, Reuters releases, the WGC site, SI, and occasionally some lesser sites such as Kosares, and the mining news sites. Most of my favorite links can be found at http://goldsheet.simplenet.com/

If I’m making a spec. play on an individual stock, I always call the company in question and try and find an honest VP who will answer my questions re their financials, and current prospects for growth, etc.

* Tools, pretty basic.

I use the basic historical graphs provided in Yahoo research , Kitco, SI, and downloaded historical graphs from other sources. I use my own Excel spreadsheets to track my investments, and create some simple graphs. I have no love for advanced or even basic tech, analysis. It’s been my experience that those who put much weight in those tools in today’s market ( other than SHORT term, professional traders ) have had a rather abysmal track record. Several folks here come to mind, but in the interest of peace, I shan’t name names. Moving averages , break out points, head & shoulders curves, etc. are interesting, I look at them, but give them minor weighting.

* Market psychology, new trends, changes in economic policy.

These are issues I try and track very closely. For example, the highly investor favorable 401K legislation passed in the 80’s, has led to a completely different type of investor in today’s stock market. PC’s in every home, and access to real time economic and market info. is another huge change. The markets will never return to their knee jerk, moves out of ignorance patterns of earlier decades. Not to say ignorance, fear, and greed and cycles don’t play a role today, they DO certainly, just not to the same degree they once did.

OK, I could drone on incomprehensibly for awhile but this is basically it. As you see, my approach is NOT formulaic, or systematic. Ironic for a believer in science, but you see, I consider the markets as dynamic forces these days, which are not subject to absolutes we once relied on. Let the derision begin...... Basic though it is, unscientific though it may be, all this has served me well.



Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:29
platboy () ID#187243:

Boris Boris,

Sign the rest of the export documents and ship out those PGM's...
Let's see those forwards swing back to the right for once... so I can make tighter markets...

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:29
LGB (@ JTF) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
You said When you take off on one of your famed monologues, it drives people
like EB right off the site. We need EB, D.A. and RJ for balance. Don't you agree?

Well JTF, yes and no. We do need the DA's and RJ's and Realistic's to be here, you recall I made a plea for them to come back yesterday? However, as to my morning satire, driving EB away, I disagree. I pay little or no attention to EB, havn't directed a post his way in months. If he disappears, at at his whim and has little to do with moi. Folks don't disappear here, as a rule, just because they find someone else annoying. If they did, the site would be blank, YES

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:28
aurator (Keeping it simple, the mouse that roared---) ID#255284:
JTF
G'day. On Cash Costs and standardisation.
Crusty old John Disney's valuation methods for gold miners beat all the number-crunching balance sheet stuff I learned in the CIA ( Certificate of Investment Analysis ) by a country mile. I recommend you scrutinise them with an intense scrute.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:27
platboy (test) ID#187243:
a first test for me cheers everyone

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:24
Myrmidon (@ FARFEL on his encouraging commentary) ID#345176:

You are a born optimist. Even if gold and gold stocks crashed you will comfort us by saying:

In view of the low volume of gold stocks and the negative news on the metal, the drop in prices is very encouraging indicating a soon to come reversal.

I love you Farfel, keep on this kind of posts so the wife ( she reads all posts ) doesn't get on me for the diminishing capital...and my bright screw ups!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:19
robnoel__A (Lock&Load...I was refering to a $20 gold piece not bullion,that only came along in 1965) ID#410198:
the Kruger Rand was the first bullion 1oz coin.......I based that on current price of uncirculated $20 Saint $500.00

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:18
Myrmidon (@ JTF on Glamis Gold) ID#345176:

Also, royalties for both mines average $22 per oz.

Most companies now follow the Gold Institute's recommendations and guidelines on calculating cash and production costs. It is pretty much standard procedure in the industry, nothing ubnormal with GLG. They have a nice web site posted earlier, here it is again:

http://www.glamis.com/

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:18
zeke (F*) ID#307271:
Do they give Oscars for Kitco posts? If so farfel should que up.
Thanks a bunch. Now take a bow and go back to your corner.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:16
SDRer__A () ID#28593:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
U.S. CONGRESSIONAL RECORD

I now ask, Why are they breaking their necks to corner the gold market if this metal is useless and superfluous? Why is gold an absolute necessity in international transactions and why is gold set aside for the use of those in the invisible government that are now bent on the destruction of the United States? To tell the American public that gold is not needed is perfectly stupid on the part of those who advance such information. Gold is a most tremendous power, and it is set aside at the present time for one purpose, and that is to place the invisible government and its disciples in complete control of the United States. These facts might as well be known, for no one is going to tolerate such imposition.

Further devaluation can only bring about greater disaster to the Nation, to add to the many planned disasters we have had for the past ten years. It is now time for us to reverse this procedure so that the planners may have a taste of their own medicine. We can do that by returning to sound, constitutional government.

If the dollar is devalued to 12.9 grains of fine gold, what will happen? Nothing except greater confusion. The increment on gold is called profit by our new experts. One thousand gold dollars, or 25,800 grains of gold, in the United States Treasury before devaluation, became $2,000 in gold after devaluation without increasing or decreasing the 25,800 grains of gold. In other words, the gold in the dollar was cut in half, and each half became $1. This is a delusional state in which the administration has been operating since it came into power.

http://www.diac.com/~bkennedy/Thorkelson/X0008_Who_Owns_The_Money.html

WHO OWNS THE MONEY? WHO OWNS THE GOLD?
WEDNESDAY, JULY 5, 1939
HON. JACOB THORKELSON OF MONTANA:

O! what a fall was there, my countrymen;
Then I, and you, and all of us fell down,
Whilst bloody treason flourish'd over us.
Shakespeare, Julius Caesar



Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:13
Myrmidon (@ JTF on GLAMIS GOLD) ID#345176:
Copyright © 1998 Myrmidon/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

The net loss of $8.3 million for 1997 was attributed to:

1. Mgmt restructuring and closing of the Vancouver office - $0.7 mil.

2. Write down of mine development costs at the Cieneguita mine in Mexico - $1.5 mil

3. Write down to market value of investments in junior exploration companies - $3.1 mil.

4. Write down of the inventories, for ozs. of gold not expected to be recovered - $2.2 mil.

5. Severance costs for down sizing the mining operations - $0.4 mil.

Consequently, the operating loss for the year prior to these charges was only $0.3 mil.

This info is from a company press release of Feb. 23 1997.

Got to go...

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:07
farfel (F*'s Evaluation of the GOLD market....) ID#340302:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
First, let me preface today's comments by noting that I am NOT a technician aka chartist. Although I believe that in a stable, trend-established market, technical work has a place and often seems to act as a fairly reasonable prognosticator, historically, I have noticed the total inability of technical analysis to call for significant trend shifts, for example the change from a bear to a bull market or vice versa. I do not believe that connecting the dots on a daily basis will predict a presidential assasination and its abrupt effects on the markets. Wave theory has consistently failed in its attempts to predict major wave shifts BEFORE the fact. Ergo, Prechter and his ilk continue to make wrong wave shift call after wrong wave shift call.

In essence, I look at fundamentals although occasionally I do pay attention to certain technical factors ( e.g., volume analysis ) . As such, I would describe myself as a fundamentech analyst...kind of a hybrid between fundamental and technical, although biased predominantly to the fundamental side.

Today's gold action was extremely encouraging. First, another low volume market continues to indicate the virtual absence of any populist interest in the gold market. Therefore, there remains enormous upside potential when such populist interest heats up.

Despite another flat PPI...despite a notable downgrade from First Boston on Battle Mountain...bellwether gold BMG suffered a mere 4.5% decline.
( Incidentally, some people ask me why I do not use Barrick as a bellwether...and it is simply because there are too many extraneous fundamental events effecting Barrick right now...from a BRE-X lawsuit to a hazy relationship between the gold company and its sister company, Trizec Hahn to the fact that Barrick is a major silver producer and is often seen as a silver play by PM investors ) . In fact, most of the golds fared equally well, experiencing relatively little weakness especially as compared to past reactions to the usual flat PPI or CPI releases ( Conversely, the DOW was unusually mild in its ascent today. On a percentage basis, the DOW experienced one of its least meteoric rises after the usual and traditional announcement of flat PPI or CPI. And extremely bearish for the DOW: it could not close over 9000 once again ) .

Again, even more encouraging, the Kitco Barometer turned unusually negative today, the Wall of Worry increasing greatly. This negativity was largely fomented by the various technicians who influence the gold sector. Today, it seems the majority of chartists declared that the POG must fall dramatically now. Most Kitco goldbugs are once again in full bearish frame of mind. This general negative temperament augurs well for a potential Buy Panic as any unexpected positive fundamental announcement will re-energize goldbugs to the Nth degree.

On a fundamental basis, there is a litany of events about to unfold over the next few weeks. Most encouraging, the pre-annual gold mining meetings announcements. Historically, this is often the period in which consolidations are announced. Naturally, any major consolidations would constitute fundamental left-field events and have a nice stimulative effect on the XAU and the gold market.

Again, we are about to go into a period of currency focus owing to the impending EURO and Asian Currency Standard announcements. These announcements do not augur well for the American Dollar. Any substantive weakness in the U.S. buck will surely be the trigger to some form of DOW/Nasdaq/bonds debacle. Now that a visible contrarian relationship is once again re-establishing itself between the DOW and gold/XAU, then such a debacle ( or market events leading to one ) should trigger a substantive spike upward in gold.

Finally, as Mr. Disney noted, Palladium continues to bite at the heel of gold. This is certainly an astute observation from Mr. D. On a fundamental basis, there is certainly a relativistic relationship between PM's. When these established relationships get out of whack significantly, then often such anomalies augur well for the PM ( Gold ) that is farthest from its established relativistic norm.

Thanks.

F*


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:00
Myrmidon (@ CHEESESPREAD) ID#345176:

No I did not get any LIHIR but through some of my change into VENGOLD yesterday ( 4,000 shares at $1 3/16 ) . Good thing it was unchanged today otherwise you would be hearing some nasty comments on your recommendation.

I also owm BMG which has a good interest in LIHIR ( 8.7% ) .

However, nothing is matching HARMONY'S performance. Hope to get back into it after this correction.

I will be gone until this evening,
Good luck!


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 17:00
JTF (GLG average gold cash cost $218/oz) ID#57232:
Myrmidon: I also think Glamis is a good buy. Can you tell me why they are losing money if their cash cost is $218/oz and the lowest spot price for gold is $280/oz? I have one real problem with gold producers, and that is that I find it very hard to find out what the 'true' production cost is -- as the 'cash' cost seems to be unstandardized -- somewhat like computer screen size measurements -- caveat emptor, I guess.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:59
Lock&Lode (@ Bill Buckler -- I'm selling all my gold RIGHT NOW....) ID#266110:
along with the house, the kids, and the wife. I've got to get on board as soon as possible!!! Can't miss out on the opportunity of the Millenium - gotta stay on that bridge to the 21st C with Herr Schlickmeister !!

Everybody should do the same. All aboard !!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:53
Lock&Lode (@Open-Loop 16:-- Thanks for the compliments. Read my 12:33) ID#266110:
treatise today on some thoughts about market MELTDOWN. There are some interesting forces that are at play.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:52
Bill Buckler (A New ) ID#256381:
Lock&Lode ( 15:54 ) Did you notice that the Treasury held an Auction on Wednesday for a new type of 30 year bond? They call them TIPS - Treasury Inflation **PROTECTION** Securities.

The bond has a low yield ( 3.50%? ) . Apparently, at the end of the year, the capital value of the bond increases by the official inflation rate over the past year. EG A $1000 bond will see its capital value grow to $1030 with an official inflation rate of 3%.

There you have it. The new paradigm! Get your inflation hedges here! GOVERNMENT BONDS!!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:50
Lock&Lode (@robnoel 15;56 -- 1930 wages @ $5 /day = 4 days for 1 oz AU) ID#266110:
Copyright © 1998 Lock&Lode/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If you calculate the current min wage @$5.15 / hour:

1. Daily wages are $41.20
2. AU price at $309
3. $309 / $41.20 = 7.5 days in my math book ( not 12.5 days )

But there's something else to factor in. In 1930, there was no FICA, Medicare Tax, medical beneifs, paid vacation, workman's comp, sick leave, etc, etc.

One could make an arguement that real wages are at least double the $5.15. Under that scenario we would have

1. Effective daily wages at $10.30 / hour = $82.40 / day
2. AU at $309
3. $309 / $82.30 = 3.75 days which would put it in line with 1930.

But this doesn't necessarily have any meaning. What is more meaningful is what is the true standard of living for the 1930 minimum wager and the current 1998 minimum wager. One thing for sure -- they didn't have MTV in 1930.

.....just a thought

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:45
Bill Buckler (Gold Spot Prices) ID#256381:
Zeke ( 16:19 )

Spot Prices for Gold at 4:22 PM ( EDT )

GCJ8 ( April ) $308.00

GCM8 ( June ) $310.20

Try CBS Marketwatch at

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/dbcfiles/market_monitor.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

This gives the June future price ( GCM8 ) . If you want the April future, click on the Gold link above the price on the page. When the new page comes up, type in GCJ8 and hit the quote button

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:40
Delphi (Neophyte, 13:24 (ECB to hold 15% gold?)) ID#258129:
I have posted this figure - 15% - on Mar 18 1998, 17:15 with reference to some documents. Regarding 70% backing in US$ - well, it is simply a reserve for possible interventions against dollar when necessary

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:37
Donald__A (Analysis of BOJ support of yen today) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/focus_boj__4.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:37
sam (Birdman) ID#286234:
I thought you might be a man who studies birds. So, you are a bird-like man! Well then, as you know goldbugs are quite tough, but goldgrubs are tender juicy morsels, and fish like 'em too.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:36
chas (Preacher) ID#342282:
Thanx for the comments. I'll dig deeper, Charlie

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:32
Open-Loop (@Lock&Lode@I LIKE THIS GUY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) ID#176200:
Please keep up the most excellent and rational posts!! I happen
to agree with you 100% They are truely a pack of liars ( gov. )

Thanks

not speaking for my employer!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:30
Aragorn III (Tolerantl) ID#212323:
Copyright © 1998 Aragorn III/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I shall thank you now for wasting my time no further. In the past I have found a number of your posts to be insightful and worthy of attention. You recently engaged in a dialog with LGB that I gave time to on the basis of your past authorship.
The exchange was a parallel to one I engaged in with that egocentric dot last week which ended with similar results. My points were echoed by your points, and that shadow of a man concluded both discussions through a proclamation that I, and now you, are reared from the Clinton gene-pool. I have no need for a non-thinker's views, and am pleased that as I continued to read your posts into the future I have assurance he will not be the wasted subject of your time and talents.
Buy him no brooms, for a shadow is gone with the sun, and the work shall remain undone.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:28
Donald__A (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Gold/Silver Ratio = 47.87

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:28
Birdman (LGB) ID#217217:
Thanks for your reply.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:26
Donald__A (@Kitco) ID#26793:
XAU/Spot Ratio = .278

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:24
Jack (Lots of dogs on the XAU......and thats where the gold mutuals dump their investors money.) ID#252127:

One big manipulation, brokers putting crap companies on the XAU and giving conservative investors poor choices. The primary reason why the good gold companies have such low volumes.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:24
Donald__A (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.19

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:21
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
Zeke -- Too late in the day now for that stuff. There be a bit o' BEER about, and such. Later......

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:20
NightWriter (Up from the bottom) ID#320376:
Gold up $30 from its low. Just moved 2000 miles. Now, I get closing prices at 2:00 PM instead of 4:00. Trying out my password. Thanks, Kitco, for this fine site.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:19
JTF (Orion's Belt) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Allen ( USA ) : I thought the recently deceased keeper of the Universe had told the 'men in black' that he hid it in Orion's belt. As I recall, they had a few hours before the earth would be 'blacklisted' by the alien races for losing ( control of ) the Universe to some unsavory bad alien creatures.

The 'men in black' saved the Universe by figuring that the referred Orion was actually a cat, and not the astronomical object. The Universe turned out to be a marble-sized object on Orion's belt. Made a great 'gag' ending! Don't remember anything about a dog.

I am still awaiting a local visit by the 'men in black' and their black helicopters. Nothing yet. Sounds like LGB knows more about this than you and I do.

LGB -- I think its great that you periodically like to add some counter opinions about gold to this site. I do find your pro equity market, antigold stance today a bit puzzling. I think it would be better if you were a bit less melodramatic, regardless. When you take off on one of your famed monologues, it drives people like EB right off the site. We need EB, D.A. and RJ for balance. Don't you agree?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:19
zeke (@Eldorado) ID#307271:
Sorry about the spots. Forgot to take me Genkoba this A.M.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:18
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
Later all. Weekend beckons.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:16
zeke (Closing XAU) ID#307271:
The XAU seems to have bounced up to 85.62 at the close ( so far ) . Also, individual issues in the majors seem to have reflected this bounce at the close with up ticks. Some of the minors finished in positive territory like CAU. Any news on Spots?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:15
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (HERR MYR! WAS THAT YOU BUYIN ALL THAT LIHIR TODAY?) ID#431263:
On a day when the XAU and Joberg are down, guess what? LIHIR ADR'S ARE UP! 12,100 ADR shares traded today at 29 7/8 UP 3/8! Since each ADR share is the equivalent of 20 Aussie shares that means that 242,000 Aussie Lihir shares traded today on Nasdaq! Or in dollar terms: $361,185.00! Is the volume beginning to excite you yet? : ) I agree with Herr Jack! LIHIR should be in the XAU instead of dogs like ECO! No wonder the d@#$ thing went down today!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:15
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
Zeke -- Markets are closed. Prices DO seem to get stuch at those awful times!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:12
Jack (Preacher) ID#252127:

What do you think of Harmony paying $17 million for Rea Golds Manitoba property?
Since Rothschild's funded many South African Mines and was a big player in their developement, could this be the return for past support?
My thinking is that Harmony with years of mining expertise could have found a cheaper and better NA investment.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 16:01
zeke (Spot Prices on Kitco) ID#307271:
Does anyone know what the real spot prices are? The kitco prices seem to be stuck again.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:56
robnoel__A (The minimum wage in 1930 was $5.00 a day,it therefore took these folks 4 days to earn a $20 gold ) ID#410198:
piece,today earning minimum wage will take 12.5 days to earn that same gold piece.....just a thought

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:54
Lock&Lode (@Spudmaster 15:31 -- 11% REAL Inflation...just what I've been saying) ID#266110:
Copyright © 1998 Lock&Lode/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Every time I hear the bunk coming from the types of Rubin, that we're facing deflation and therefore have to lower interest rates, I keep telling everyone - DON'T BELIEVE IT.

Why? It's pure and simple.
1. There is no way that you can have a Federal debt that is at $450 Billion / year and not have any inflation.

2. When credit card companies continue to loan out money for people to charge to the max - there has to be inflation.

3. When people are leasing cars and not buying them, there has to be inflation.

4. AND when you can get a mortgage that'd 125% of the value of your house, there has to be inflation.

5. IMF bailout of Asia - INFLATIONARY, because they sent over a bunch of IOUs.

So, what's the story? It's even a better reason to be in AU when the price is so low. Get it while you still can.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:52
Preacher (chas & Brush Creek) ID#225273:
Copyright © 1998 Preacher/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
chas,
I haven't looked at it since John Doody dropped coverage of it in his Gold Stock Analyst about two years ago.

Also, someone earlier asked about AYM, ECM, YRI, and CLN. I don't follow these either, although we've talked about ATM on here some.
YRI hit what looks to be a nice silver deposit in Argentina. Some of the newsletter writers like John Kaiser and Bob Bishop weren't too impressed, if I remember correctly. But given YRI's reputation as long on promotion and short on substance, it will take more than one set of drill holes to sell the market on its project.
ECM is a Bema subsidiary with operations in Venezuela, if I recall. It did very well in 1993, but since then it's dried up. Broker Glenn Dobbs called it his favorite stock about two years ago in Vancouver. But I don't think that Venezuela is a good place for mining operations.
I know nothing about Claimstaker and have never heard of it outside of Kitco.

The Preacher

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:52
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
Financial institutions, banks, and many businesses WILL be closed tomorrow. according to Investors Business Daily.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:46
vronsky (Platinum Margin) ID#426220:

ELDORADO: Thx old buddy - appreciate the info.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:42
Silverbaron (Aurator @ BIS quotes) ID#289357:

Current conversion rate is US$ 1.00 = SF 1.486

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:33
Silverbaron (Aurator @ Quotes for shares of BIS) ID#289357:
Copyright © 1998 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Here are current quotes for shares of the Bank for International Settlements, obtained from

http://www.swissinvest.com

( I don't know the specific difference between BIB and BIZ class shares )

Prices are quoted in Swiss Francs

Security No.: 131553

Type: Registered - R

Symbol: BIB

Security No.: 131547

Bank for International Settlements

Category: Banks

Quote Chart

Share Info BIB

Closing ( end of day ) :9550

52 week High / Low:9900 / 8500

Last close as % of 52 High:96%:

Ex-dividend date:01.07.97

Size-Category:MidCaptalization

Performance BIB

1 month3 month6 month12 monthSince Jan 1st

8.52% 5.52% 3.80% 1.60% 7.61%

Traded atSWX side-line market

Security No.: 131547

Bank for International Settlements

Category: Banks

Quote Chart

Share Info BIZ

Closing ( end of day ) :9950

52 week High / Low:11000 / 9000

Last close as % of 52 High:90%

Ex-dividend date:01.07.97

Size-Category:MidCap

Performance BIZ

1 month3 month6 month12 monthSince Jan 1st

7.86% 4.19% -3.40% -0.50% 9.04%

Traded atSWX side-line market


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:32
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
One final note on the May silver: IF it can't make it over 6.43, fairly early on I would think, be a bit 'leery' of it! That would signify a general lack of any real strenth at this point, given todays movements. Simply watch its behavior! Let us also not forget 'Holiday', and holiday weekend. Typically a good time in ALL the markets for all appearances to be deceiving.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:21
Spud Master (CPI figures are obvious lie... REAL inflation running at least 11% per year) ID#273112:
Copyright © 1998 Spud Master/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I maintain the prices of a basket of 31 items I purchase WEEKLY here in North Texas, and although I haven't priced them for the last two months, they were up 11% since February of 1997.

You can be damn certain that a bloody computer, car, VCR, etc are not in my backet - just things you MUST have each week.

We are all just the proverbial frog in the pot of water, slowly being boiled to death & not even noticing ... not even closet rocket scientists ; )

Il Spuduci

ps - May 7: Let the Impeachment proceedings begin, O Shameless Role Model, Bill Clinton!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:17
clone (inflation-protected bonds...) ID#267344:
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/f/AP-Inflation-Bonds.html
- c

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:17
tsclaw (@ John Disney) ID#373335:
Just interested what you see for a bottom in the gold pull-back?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:17
Pete T__A (Allegheny Mines) ID#170184:
Copyright © 1998 Pete T__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I talked to a freind of mine, who is an engineer, and he wanted me to post these comments for him regarding Allegheny Mines.

I noticed a post on Allegheny Mines the other day but wasn't able to post as I'm not signed on to Kitco yet. The post I read was fairly technical so I don't have anything to add there. I do have some comments on the visit I made to the site last fall though. A group of people both technical and investors were brought up to the property last fall to have a look at the East Vanguard showing. This is where Allegheny Mines did some previous drilling on the property. The outcrop of the massive sulfides was very impressive. The drill core from the prior drilling was equally impressive. I walked away with the thoughts that some more geophysics needed to be done and then a drill program should be started. Since that trip the geophysics has been done and a new theory has been presented by the geologists working on the property. The geologists believe the crayfish fault displaced the continuity of the massive sulphides which corresponds with an anomaly to the northeast of the East Vanguard. If this anamoly is the same type of rock that is present in the East Vanguard then Allegheny Mines has enormous potential. Allegheny Mines needs to raise some money to start a drill program to test some of these targets. Ideally, I would like to see anywhere from 200M- 500M raised which would insure a good quality work program. I personally believe Allegheny Mines has very good potential but the drill program is a must to show whether the geologists' new theory is on track. I'll try to pay a little more attention to this site, but I don't visit the 'net that often.

Regards,

The Rook


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:17
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
vronsky -- I believe the current purchase margin is $2025. Maintenance margin is $1500.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:16
Pete T__A (Allegheny Mines) ID#170184:
Copyright © 1998 Pete T__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I talked to a freind of mine, who is an engineer, and he wanted me to post these comments for him regarding Allegheny Mines.

I noticed a post on Allegheny Mines the other day but wasn't able to post as I'm not signed on to Kitco yet. The post I read was fairly technical so I don't have anything to add there. I do have some comments on the visit I made to the site last fall though. A group of people both technical and investors were brought up to the property last fall to have a look at the East Vanguard showing. This is where Allegheny Mines did some previous drilling on the property. The outcrop of the massive sulfides was very impressive. The drill core from the prior drilling was equally impressive. I walked away with the thoughts that some more geophysics needed to be done and then a drill program should be started. Since that trip the geophysics has been done and a new theory has been presented by the geologists working on the property. The geologists believe the crayfish fault displaced the continuity of the massive sulphides which corresponds with an anomaly to the northeast of the East Vanguard. If this anamoly is the same type of rock that is present in the East Vanguard then Allegheny Mines has enormous potential. Allegheny Mines needs to raise some money to start a drill program to test some of these targets. Ideally, I would like to see anywhere from 200M- 500M raised which would insure a good quality work program. I personally believe Allegheny Mines has very good potential but the drill program is a must to show whether the geologists' new theory is on track. I'll try to pay a little more attention to this site, but I don't visit the 'net that often.

Regards,

The Rook


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:13
chas (Preacher re ugly truth) ID#342282:
This may give an opportunity to get in some I missed. I felt there could be some pull back about here. Have you got any comments on BCMD - Brush Creek Mining? It's in Downieville area of Ca. I used to have a report by Ross Brown, USGS early surveyor, that came out about 1870. It disappeared in travels. Favorable comments on the Alleghany system. I'm waiting on some info from Brush Cr., who is currently working there. Thanx Charlie

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:12
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
Copyright © 1998 Eldorado/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Man, that 6.20 number on the May silver was one of the prettiest things I've ever seen. Just doesn't seem to happen often enough with silver. Came right down to the trend line formed from the tops from Feb and the top formed in late Mar. Then she sprang right back up! Just don't let it crash it again! As it stands right now, I'd have to say UP! Next stop near 7.20 me thinks, with a couple minor areas in between.

If somehow we see gold down a few bucks at/near the open, buy the hell out of it! I'm beginning to wonder though. Must be close to something when I begin to wonder.

Spoos at some fairly heavy resistance. Still hasn't fully accomplished a 50% retracement back up though. But the days not done. Near 1126 should do it, IF it should even get there.

Thought I'd buy some wheat at the close today. went skinny dippin' in the corn and beans yesterday.

Cocoa and sugar both should now be ready for a long position next trading day. I'm lookin' for lower lows than what cocoa did today and what sugar did yesterday.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:07
HenryD (Frail - FYI, GLG has a web page: ) ID#36156:
http://www.glamis.com/

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:06
buff (zeke bmg downgrade not impacting the cnv as its been up all day) ID#66136:

the convertables on all PM,s are not reflecting the softness of the common and tend to put price movement into perspective.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:05
zeke (GOLD in '79-'80) ID#307271:
Thanks for the encouraging post L&L. I still remember during the Howard

Ruff Times of CIRCA 1979-80: I came into about 20k of the worthless green stuff and went down to the local purveyor of coins and gold with the intent of making a purchase. He looked and me in disbelief and said, Don't you know that gold is now at $250 an ounce--it's way over priced, just wait 'til it comes down. As Paul Harvey would say: You know the rest of the story.

I'm with F*: I DON'T CARE ! I'M BUYING MORE !

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:04
Preacher (Hut & Gold) ID#225273:
Copyright © 1998 Preacher/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Hut,
I try not to mix technical analysis with fundamental analysis. The factor you mentioned qualifies as fundamental analysis. I'm looking at a Monday spike up followed by the inability of gold to move any higher for the week, with a weak close, possibly even a negative weekly close. And with this coming after a three-month, $35 rise in gold, it looks to me like it's time for a correction.
My indicators certainly aren't infallible. And the correction may not become apparent immediately. We may see a few days of strength ahead before a downturn.
But I write what I see. Noone pays for it. And what I see is that the most probable direction for gold from here is down to the $295 area.
I like to margin in uptrends, so I'm getting unmargined ASAP.

Usually, a stock or a commodity doesn't make it over its 200-day MA on the first try. Gold jumped over it on Monday, but I imagine it will take another vault to get and stay over it for good.

The Preacher

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 15:02
Ray () ID#411149:
Lock & Lode- you sound like me taklin to myself. This is starting
1978 all over or better and it ain't can happen it is already happening!
Jest look out the winder.

I thought the markets were closed tomorrow is that right? I mean
the stock and gold markets. Heck I will be cookin crawfish and suckin
on a beer all day. Ya'll come!

Tally Ho

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:58
Prometheus (@Vronsky) ID#210235:
Platinum margin for non-spot months, initial margin = 2025,
maintenance margin = 1500. spreads 350/350.
SPOT months initial margin = 4050, maint. = 3000, spreads SAME.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:50
Lock&Lode (@robnoel 14:28 --- I held the botton and went for the ride.) ID#266110:
Copyright © 1998 Lock&Lode/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Drawing a correlation - when gold was $278 in 1978, it tells us that there hasn't been ANY INFLATION since then. What I see is that we have false pressures to drive the price of gold down due to hidden agendas. It defies logic when we all know that the price of every house in town has risen at least 3-4 times within that time frame - to think that the price of gold now should be the same as in '78.

If we were to multiply the correct inflation factor for gold, then it should be at least $750. So rather than grandstand about how we're being taken by the FED and other CBs, just be smart and buy more AU.

We have an unprecedented bargain that should reap big rewards. Get on board and buy as much as you can. Because when the panic hits ( and it doesn't have to be the Apocalypse of doom and gloom ) , the price of gold will outstrip the projected correlary for gold's price being $750. Gold should move much higher - $1,000+/oz.

If the price of gold goes back down and stays down for a while, then this is even better because it will build up a major amount of pressure and the price should go higher when the restraining forces are broken loose.

As reflected by other posts, we have seen an unprecedented ratio of Au/the DOW - 29+. Keep in mind that we have instances when the ration has been 1 to 1. If this is the case then we could see:
- $1,000 Au / 1000 DOW
- $2,000 Au / 2000 DOW

Even if you want to give the spread a push in favor of the DOW of 2:1 or even 3:1 we could see:
- $1,000 Au / 2000 DOW
- $2,000 Au / 6000 DOW

IT COULD HAPPEN !!!!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:49
Hut__A (Preacher---Gold 's strength?) ID#347235:
Doesn't the action in gold today--only losing .70 -- in the light of the poor P.P.I numbers bode well for Monday? Over the last few years , gold has not done well when the inflation numbers came out. Today , it seemed to hold. I would appreciate your comment.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:47
vronsky (DOLLAR MARGIN FOR A PLATINUM CONTRACT?) ID#426220:

Would someone pls tell me the approximate dollar value of margin one must
put up to go long one Platinum/100 oz Contract?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:44
Myrmidon (HenryD and Frail on Glamis Gold - GLG) ID#345176:

Some brief info:

Probable and Proven reserves of 2.4 million ozs.

Production cash cost per oz:
Picacho mine $180
Rand mine $229
Average for all mines $218

Total 1997 gold production: 128,671 ozs.

For the year 1997 the company had ( $0.27 ) loss per share
( 31.1 million shares ) or ( $8.2 ) million loss.

Don't see anything about debt.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:40
farfel (@DISNEY...comparing palladium and gold?) ID#340302:
Hey, you're a chartist, dammit. Stay true to your creed. You're not supposed to make fundamental comparisons like that!

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:35
John Disney__A (Palladium is closing FAST) ID#24135:
To all
Maybe palladium will save Gold's
youknowwhat.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:33
farfel (@DISNEY...you will always be my favorite Mousester!!!) ID#340302:
Don't ever change...

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:32
John Disney__A (Bluto cant read charts...) ID#24135:
For Farfel
Get serious .. Trust you
sure I will...

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:28
robnoel__A (Want to watch the history of gold & silver flash before your eyes,just hold down button) ID#410198:
http://www.globalfindata.com/tbgold.htm

http://www.globalfindata.com/tbsilver.htm

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:27
John Disney__A (Tough guys even sell Harmony ) ID#24135:
for The preacher
Have to reluctantly agree that a pullback is
coming. In fact Ive been selling since Monday.
All but Harmony .. Ill even sell THAT if I
have too but its gonna give me PAIN REAL PAIN
.. Ill keep the Plats.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:27
HenryD (Frail - Glamis GOLD) ID#36156:
Frail, like Myrmidon, I hold GLG. Bought in at just under $4 a few weeks back. I like it's lack of volatility, and if I remember correctly, it has no long term debt ( Myrmidon, please correct me if I'm wrong ) .

I'm holding and may buy more...

HenryD - GG!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:25
Myrmidon (Are US markets closed tomorrow? ) ID#345176:



Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:24
Straddler (Assistance Please!! - RE: Tomorrow's Trading (if any)) ID#280215:
Will any of the US futures market trade tomorrow or will ALL be closed? Any for just a half day? My only concerns are the Energies, Currencies and Precious Metals.

Reason I ask is that sometimes when everything is closed, the currencies stay open. Any assistance appreciated!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:15
farfel (@223...yes, you are right...) ID#340302:
...those Ivy League types do have some of the strangest accents, don't they?

I shoulda knows 'coz I ah bin dere!

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:15
Frail (Glamis Gold) ID#338434:
Thanks for the quick response. I have also been kicking around the idea of purchasing more shares of Glamis.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:15
LGB (@ Birdman....) ID#269409:
Sorry about that Birdman, didn't see your earlier post till you did follow up. Got a meetin' to attend but I promise to post later this afternoon as to me own strategy. Preview, it's not a tech. based strategy, and not a hard and fast strategy...more later

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:14
farfel (@PREACHER Re: your 14:08...Oh, Mr. Preacher Man...) ID#340302:
...ye of little faith...take another look at your charts. I think you may be misinterpreting them a little.

It's never looked so good for gold and the XAU.

Trust me.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:14
Myrmidon (@ Frail) ID#345176:

Frail, I hold 2,000 of GLG and intend to keep it. Avrg bought $4 1/2.
The name is Glamis GOLD. Pay attention to the word GOLD because anything that has this word attached to it will go through the roof - someday!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:11
John Disney__A (Tolerant .. I thought you went TOO FAR ) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
For tolerant ... You just said to LGB that he was
a fat idiot. In your world of BS let me make this clear. I
do not like you, your arrogant false sense of pride
and I find the zenith of your conversation to be
filled with nothing save ego, love of money and a
vision of the world while your belly is full and your
brain empty.

Now I wont have that .. he's not fat .. oh
you .. said FAT - uous .. I get it .. OK I guess you're
right... sorry .

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:10
jman (More of the same) ID#251268:
I noticed this morning there seemed to be a lack of interest in selling
when spot dropped 2.00 and I'm seeing it again,I realy beleive that
gold is in the hands of people who are not panicing,excluding
short term traders,lets see what happens?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:10
farfel (@ZEKE...lowering of ratings on GOLD COMPANIES...) ID#340302:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...just more examples of gold de-indexing by the various major Wall Street Financial institutions. They must pull funds from all bearish investment sectors in order to re-index the DOW darlings and sustain their effectively vertical rise.

Again, it is impossible for them to sustain financial inflows at these astronomical levels much longer. Next week...expect a wave of income tax selling in the market.

And...after all is said and done...

I DON'T CARE...I'M BUYING MORE...
I DON'T CARE...I'M BUYING MORE...
I DON'T CARE...I'M BUYING MORE...

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:10
Frail (Glamis Gold) ID#338434:
I own several hundred shares of Glamis Gold. Does anyone have an opinion pro or con about this company? I bought at $7.00. Current price is around $4.00. Am trying to decide whether to hold or sell.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:09
Lock&Lode (@Myrmidon 14:00 --- Its normal to want buy more AU....) ID#266110:
for those who know a bargain when they see one... and when you know that its great insurance. Afterall, it is REAL MONEY and not that legal tender junk that the FED forces on us. Isn't it normal to want real money?

Buy on and be normal.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:08
Preacher (The Ugly Truth) ID#227290:
Copyright © 1998 Preacher/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
To all: It's the last day of the week and today's action will put a cap on what the weekly charts for gold and the XAU will tell us. And the truth that's emerging is getting ugly.
In an uptrend, prices tend to close near the high of the range. With the current slide in gold and the XAU, it looks like both will close negative for the week after making new highs for the year on Monday. With the stochastics very high and turning down, we have to consider that the three-month move from January 14 has ended and we will now see a correction of that advance.
It hurts, I know. But if this is true, it will hurt a lot more if some selling isn't done up here.
I was very hopeful that yesterday's turnaround in the XAU was a prelude to something big and explosive today and next week.
The odds don't favor that now.
Unless something dramatic occurs between now and the market close, my best guess is that gold will see something on the order of a 50% retracement of its $277-$312 runup. That could bring it back down to $295 or so. That's not what we want to see, but it could well happen.
The good news is that gold has now made a short series of higher lows and, by breaking the January high, higher highs.
So, I think our uptrend is in tact, it should just take a break for a few weeks.

Unhappy selling,

The Preacher

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:06
223 (farfel you have a funny way of phonetic spelling Ivy League accents.) ID#26669:
Is your spell checker broken?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:04
Birdman () ID#217217:
LGB I would appreciate a reply to my 12:31pm post today re: your trading techniques. I am aware that you are always busy fending off the attentions of OTHER Kitcoyotes but please spare the time and post a reply. I have noticed in the past that your calls have been quite reasonable and I am sure we would all learn something from what your underlying trading philosophies and techniques are.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:02
223 (MR Disney, you're right of course) ID#26669:
It seems that there is lots of wise advice floating around about buying opportunities, but the sell advice is allways suspect at best. Do you have any rules of thumb as to selling strategies? ( in general and in specific cases )

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:00
trader (I'm out) ID#374307:
Looks like gold and gold stocks have topped out for a while. I'm out of ABX and TVX until the dust settles.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:00
farfel (CALIFORNIA LOTTERY EFFECT RUMBLES THROUGH DOW....) ID#340302:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
NEWS FLASH:

( Rooters, April 9 )

Today's latest bout of DOW mania is being attributed to yesterday's California Effect.

Millions of people, standing in line for hours yesterday for the chance to play the California $120 million dollar lottery, swapped tales of riches and success obtained from their various stock market mutual funds while cooling their heels to see whether or not lightning would strike and bestow untold wealth upon them.

Ahs made 50% on ma money in just two months, declared one lucky DOW lottery player, so's ah really don't need this Caleeforneea lottery money. It'd just be icing onda cake fa me.

Is really so easy too...alls ya gotta do is cash in ya food stamps, then handa cash over to da Man over at da Merroll Lunch. In no times at all, ya get back yer 50 pa cent, declared the lucky DOW lottery player.

Such tales of fast wealth and riches rippled through the enormous crowds of impatient hopefuls, as they all dreamed their dreams of collecting the great centi-million dollar payoff.

Ah knows dat if ah don't win da Caleeforneea lottery, ah'll still git ma 100 million eventually coz' da Merroll Lunch Man done told me so! said the lucky Dow lottery player, maybe it'll just take un extra two or tree years or so but rich ah is gonna be.

So if ya're really smart, you best jes cal da Merroll Lunch man tomorrow, give him all yer cash real quick, den sit back and ledda bucks roll in. It's dat simple, really!


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:00
LGB (@ Lock& Lode...your April 15 scenario) ID#269409:
We'd do well to remember that last year in late April, we had a rather brutal market correction that took the DOW down to the 6700 level or so.
( Bob Brinker gave an all out buy signal when it hit that level and proved to have INCREDIBLY excellent timing, as he has so many times before ) .

Of course, that big dip was precipitated by rate increase by the FED, so I'm not sure what the parallel will be the next time. Rate increase looks unlikely, disappointing earnings reports maybe, though the market seems to be factoring that in and shrugging it off already.....

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:00
Myrmidon (Lock&Lode) ID#345176:

And while they are busy with their IRAs, goldbugs have another week to get some more of the golds.

I don't know about you gentlemen, but I have this craving appetite to keep on buying more of the golds. Never seem to have enough. Is this normal, or am I becoming an avarice?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 14:00
John Disney__A (The time to short the dow will be .. Lemme sleep on it. ) ID#24135:
baby baby lemme sleep on it and Ill
give you my answer in .. the .. Morning.

To various
I would feel a lot better if some of you
would cease predicting the immediate crash
of the DOW. Its so embarrasing when you are
wrong do often ... Obviously one day you'r
gonna be right .. so what .. is someone
gonna give you a medal not me ... I
mean .. who asked you in the first place.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:54
vronsky (SINCE GREENSPAN'S WARNING, THE DOW IS UP ABOUT 50%!!) ID#426220:
Copyright © 1998 vronsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

It is extremely rare for a Federal Reserve Chairman to warn investors about the

stock market. This has happened only twice before in this century ( 1929, 1965 ) , and

in both cases, a severe bear market followed that required more than twenty years

to breakeven after inflation. Alan Greenspan chooses his words very carefully. Yet

Greenspan referred to the stock market as a bubble in a prepared speech when

the Dow was about 6000.

I can calculate the movement of the stars, but NOT the madness of men.

- Sir Isaac Newton, after losing a fortune in the 1719 South-Sea Company Bubble

From the Prudent Bear:

http://www.prudentbear.com


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:53
zeke (Battle Mountain Gold) ID#307271:
Does this lowering of BMG from buy to hold have anything to do with the

Elers position? Can't seem to find the article. Any news or prospects for price changes will be welcome.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:49
Isure (BGO) ID#368244:

BGO seems to be gaining volume , and the ability to hold it's gains better and better against down days. I believe the next up move in gold should really get it going. I hope, I hope!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:46
Lock&Lode (@Myrmidon 13:41 --- Continued flow into Mutuals in March) ID#266110:
Copyright © 1998 Lock&Lode/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Along with the March flows, there will be additional flows into April due to the ROTH IRA. This will suck money in right up to April 15th. On account of the factors of 401Ks and IRAs, we will not see gold make any kind of move until after the 15th ( IMHO ) . Similarly, the DOW will not do any real retracement until after the 15th.

Maybe this is too simple a call to make, but I know of all sorts of people in the masses who haven't thought about it at all. They're madly out there plus-ing up their IRAs and other retirement accounts. This is part of the endless prosperity mantra.

Strike on McDuff.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:42
223 (url didnt go through. try this one and manually input 1997) ID#26669:
http:///platinum.londonfix2.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:41
LGB (@ Silverbaron) ID#269409:
Here here and amen... a simple satirical post in the AM and look what happens! The wolves come out of theit dens, seeking someone to devour. Long term Goldbugism seems to be hazardous to one's mental health....

However, the worm has turned, metals shall see better days ahead...most here will be happy. For me it'll be a mixed blessing, times is good for so many, I hate to see it change for the worse just as all our kids are hitting the job market....Hopefully their elders can help em out instead of just leaching off them via socialist security

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:41
Myrmidon ($27 billion net inflow in Mutual Funds in March !) ID#345176:

If that Yuppie money went into NA golds instead of Mutual Funds, they will double within a month!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:39
Lock&Lode (@Suspicious 13:26 -- Tobacco=Extortion / You're absolutely right) ID#266110:
Copyright © 1998 Lock&Lode/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
But there are two priniciples that the politicians want to play out.

1. Grab large amounts of money upfront - to shore up the general fund
2. Keep the host on a tether - THEY'VE GOT TO KEEP THE HOST ALIVE so they can milk it forever.

The second point is the most important. They have to suck out just enough blood in order to keep tobacco in check, but they've already counted on the money. They need it. And they will have it at whatever cost. Whatever lies must be told in order to get the end result, they will spin the lies so the populace goes after tobacco. It's only right because its for the children.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:39
223 (1997 platinum prices speak for themselves) ID#26669:
http:///cgi-bin/platyear.cgi

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:37
LGB (@ Allen...them Black choppers) ID#269409:
Hey that's not funny Allen! I remember a few years ago when the Malathion spraying choppers that were covering our entire county for the Medfruit fly.... were exposed by my father in law as being instruments of Govt. experiments to drug us all into a stupor! ( Now here in Santa Cruz it's flouride in the water that's the culprit...hehehe )

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:36
Silverbaron (Now, Now, BOYS!! Lighten UP!) ID#289357:

He who throws dirt, loses ground.

Gold/Silver/Platinum/Palladium/Rhodium/NA mining stocks/SA Mining stock/Oz mining stocks ALL in uptrends....Life is good......

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:36
Ted (Ode to CherOkee..............................................go *$%&$#@*---XAU down 2.25) ID#330175:
get back-get back...to once where ya belonged...get back Jo-Jo~~~~~~~ 'got a good reason ta takin the easy way out' ( why not go 'for-it'..huh... ) ------

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:35
Spud Master (@Dave in CO & The LGB Greater Investment 1200% Return Strategy) ID#273112:
Bravo ; )

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:35
LGB (DOW 9000 ) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Oops! Here's the cut & paste I meant to attach..

hursday April 9, 12:53 pm Eastern Time

March est. flow to U.S. stock funds $27.5 bln-ICI

WASHINGTON, April 9 ( Reuters ) - Estimated net new flows to U.S. stock mutual funds were $27.5 billion in March,
up from February actual inflows of $24.2 billion, an industry trade group said on Thursday.

The Investment Company Institute also said the estimated flow to all long-term stock, hybrid, taxable bond funds and
municipal bond funds was $37.5 billion last month, compared with actual flows of $32.4 billion in February.

Hybrid funds had an estimated inflow of $2.5 billion in March, compared with an inflow of $1.9 billion in February,
ICI said. Hybrid mutual funds include balanced, flexible portfolio, income mixed and asset allocation funds --
components previously grouped with bond and income funds.

Combined taxable and municipal bond fund inflows were estimated at $7.5 billion last month, compared with an inflow
of $6.3 billion in February, it said.

The monthly estimates are derived from unpublished weekly estimates based on a survey of long-term funds that
account for about 97 percent of long-term mutual fund assets, ICI said.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:34
LGB (DOW 9000?) ID#269409:
This could have SOMEthing to do with it... now the question is, which direction will the dollars flow in the months ahead with disappointing earnings reports? ( Keeping in mind of COURSE that oil and Gold will not flow in the same direction.... )

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:33
Allen(USA) (LGB@TheList) ID#246224:
You forgot the death-virus spraying black helicopters. You also forgot to mention my dog, Rudy, who is the actual master of the universe, tellipathic space alien in disguise. You know, the one featured in Men in Black.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:31
Myrmidon (% up from their 52 wk lows) ID#345176:

As of now,

XAU.................+41.3%
JGAI................+41.5% ( SA gold index )

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:30
LGB (Gold shares takin a beatin today) ID#269409:
Thursday April 9, 9:39 am Eastern Time

RESEARCH ALERT - Battle Mountain lowered

NEW YORK, April 9 ( Reuters ) - Credit Suisse First Boston said it lowered its rating on Battle Mountain Gold Co.
to hold from buy, and initiated coverage of Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. ( AGE.TO - news ) with a buy rating.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:26
Suspicious (Tobacco Deal = Bureaucratic extortion) ID#285121:
Politicians drooling over all that money reminds me of jackels on a fresh kill.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:24
Neophyte (ECB to hold 15% gold?) ID#390249:
According to the head of the LMBA, the ECB is expected to hold 70% dollars, 15% gold and 15% yen. I'd be disappointed. I'm expecting 30%. I can't believe they would consider 70% dollar backing.

http://www.infoseek.com/Content?arn=a1532LBY772reulb-19980409&qt=gold&col=NX&kt=A&ak=news1486

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:22
ForkLift__A () ID#324266:
The first quarter of 1997 platinum hovered in the 360's; and the first week of June there was a thrilling $100 dollar jump.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:16
Birdman (Sam) ID#217217:
Sam what do you mean? Birds of a feather....

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:16
themissinglink (Larryn) ID#373403:
I read that the BOJ was selling dollars. Welcome home dollars.

Where will those dollars go is the boom or bust question. Reserve dollars equal dead dollars. Repatriated dollars may mean inflationary dollars.

Will the rest of Asia follow suit now that dishoarding has been breached? Looking at what happened to gold with the threat of central bank overhang. The dollar may be in BIG trouble!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:14
LGB (@ A Goose) ID#269409:
Better check that Platinum gain figure again! However, your post certainly makes a good point that I was trying to make last summer. Silver & Platinum had excellent gain potential at that time, Gold did not.

Made that point and that call many many times here in advance, during the August/Septmeber time frame, and it turned out correct in retrospect, ( though I am of course, an uncredentialed Moron who has consistently suceeded at stock and PM investing through sheer luck )

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:13
silver plate (balancing act) ID#289468:
Clinton proposes to put the tobacco companies out of business but promises the tobacco farmers that no harm will come to them. My brain can't stand that kind of logic. Better to concentrate on the logic of gold.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:13
Suspicious (Who hurts worse when the bubble bust ? LIBERIALS) ID#285121:
They only believe CCN, ( Clinton News Network ) that tells them the're all going to retire rich with their growth fund. My Son-in-law sells for met-life. Folks are cashing in lots of policies to feed their mutual fund. This mania is in the very mature stages. My ( guess ) is a top in the Dow in May at about 9700, with gold testing 290 again.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:12
ForkLift__A (Lock&Lode) ID#324266:
I will be more careful. The price info for 1997 was from the Kitco archives. Congratulations on another well tied together scenario. I agree with you that recent inflation is an expression of debt, so that the increases in M3 illustrate debt creation by the banks.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:09
LGB (@ DaveinCO) ID#269409:
If your post bore any relationship to anything I've posted here over the past few months re my investment strategy, I'd respond, but since it does not, I'll refrain.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:08
Dave in CO (@LGB - your investment strategy) ID#229103:
Let me get this straight:

1. Put money in 401K.
2. Wait X years.
3. Collect Y%.

Funny, but this is the same strategy I used and millions of others are using, but you waste space bragging about it here? What else can you say except that you sold too soon?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:07
LGB (@ Tolerant) ID#269409:
Re your 12:40 statement And so it is done, your posts from here on out shall be invisible to me.

All I can say is Thank God!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:06
A.Goose (Things have been looking up...) ID#20135:
Copyright © 1998 A.Goose/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:50
ForkLift__A ( London P.M. Fix for April 9, 1997 ) ID#324266:
Gold = $347.80; Silver = $4.77; Platinum = $366.75

Thanks forklift.


Now that means that Silver is UP year over year 33.5%!!!

Platinium is UP year over year 124.9%!!!

And if my memory serves me

palladium was around $160

Palladium is UP year over year 143.8%!!!!


I submit that that a pm rally has already started. If it were not for the manipulation of the CB's et.al. over the last year gold would also be up year over year. I think things are definitely looking UP!!!

Have a NICE DAY.


BBML

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 13:02
larryn__A (US selling dollars) ID#32078:
In between all of the insults, has anyone noticed the major change in US policy in which the US is selling dollars to support the yen. This seems to have reversed a weak gold and XAU trend this morning. If gold and gold stocks cannot rally with the dollar coming down, it doesn't look good for the short term.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:56
Lock&Lode (@Forklift --- Until I read the year, I almost had a heart attack!) ID#266110:
I just read the prices and wondered what wild gyrations just ocurred. Then, I reread the post and saw the year as 1997. Please give a forewarning that is more notorious in the future. Because I scan when I read ( as I suspect others do ) I go for the most important data. Prices are always the most important item. So that's what I focus on.

If you had posted with an intro: Last year on this date - 4-9-97...
then I probably wouldn't have had the unfounded shock.

Thanks for the post. It reminds and puts things in perspective.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:53
wombat (this is a test) ID#23941:
test test

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:50
ForkLift__A (London P.M. Fix for April 9, 1997) ID#324266:
Gold = $347.80; Silver = $4.77; Platinum = $366.75

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:43
OLD GOLD () ID#238295:
Looks like somebody gave the dogs of 10:00 A.M. a good kick in the butt.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:42
robnoel__A (LGB Honourable statement about not pushing your biz,however I differ with your statement on bullion) ID#410198:
are you refering to those companys that sell bullion at 1% over cost....the same ones that advertise on Rush's show....let me tell if anyone out thinks you can spend that kind of money on advertising and operate on a 1% profit are nuts in order to pay for 1 30 second add they would need to generate $350.000.00 so what are they really doing.....I sell bullion at 3% over I offer good service fast delivery and never take my clients phone number......LGB sell bullion just tell folks the truth about the good deal they think they are getting from those guys

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:41
sam (Birdman) ID#286279:
Hi Birdman. Tell us about your handle please.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:40
tolerant1 (LGB - Comparing me to the Clinton's, Hmmmmmmm, this make you a fatuous) ID#31868:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
idiot. In your world of BS let me make this clear. I do not like you, your arrogant false sense of pride and I find the zenith of your conversation to be filled with nothing save ego, love of money and a vision of the world while your belly is full and your brain empty.

So, from here on out, I wish you no ill, but have zero desire to engage in further conversation with you.

Clearly this is a waste of Bart's bandwidth and the time of myriad posters and lurkers who come to this site for its stated and written purpose.

And so it is done, your posts from here on out shall be invisible to me.






Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:37
chas (OLD GOLD re Veneroso) ID#342282:
Check Sharefin earlier thi am

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:35
ALBERICH__A (@LGB (12:15) Don't forget: Clinton and Rubin defend the IMF) ID#212197:
When the IMF fights against the dictator Suharto because he wants to feed the starving children of his country instead of paying back US$ based debt to the international banksters with a devaluated currency .... you must not forget where Clinton and Rubin stand in this fight. they clearly stand and have said it over and over on the IMF side.

It's up to you on which side you chose to stand. But don't tell anybody he talks like Clinton when he/she cares about starving children.

Just to set things straight!

Alberich the Dwarf

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:35
sam (LGB) ID#286279:
O.K. you're a goldgrub then; not quite a full fledged ***Goldbug*** YET. : )

I sincerely hope you are maintaining good health.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:33
Lock&Lode (@Mike Shellar 06:56 --- Thoughts about the next market MELTDOWN) ID#266110:
Copyright © 1998 Lock&Lode/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Even though this runs contrary to my core beliefs, I would like to run a potential scenario for all. NO COMPLETE MELTDOWN OF THE EQUITIES OR FIAT CURRENCY.

This postulation is based upon the manipulations of the CGs and CBs of the past. Recent history provides some examples:
1. 1987 Crash - AG propped up the stock market with liberal credit extension to companies to buy their own stock in order to provide proof that the market was viable and to suck the masses back into the market. It worked.

2. 1997 Crash - A repeat performance of the former. Again, it worked.

3. 1997-98 Asian Fiasco - IMF pumping in legal tender or IOUs to prop up a failed system with the probablity of more IOUs being pumped in to continue the charade.


So what's the correlation here? Everytime major sins are commited and payment is exacted, we have the CBs come running to the rescue with complete absolution. THERE IS NO PAYMENT FOR THE SINS COMMITED. How do they handle it? They paper over the sins with nice white paper and mask the fundamental problems that brought the shock in the first place. The masses react to the initial shock and then are appeased by the brilliant solutions prescribed by the experts. We all go about our own business and life continues from day to day as though there is no problem at all.

WHAT TO EXPECT --- If we have a drop in the DOW of 30%, we should expect the IMF to propose a bailout. They have already gotten the masses used to the idea. First was Mexico and now Asia. When it occurs in the US, it only stands to reason that the same should happen again. Afterall, when we bailed out foreigners so quickly, then we should bail our ownselves out too. The prescription has already been written in the past and it worked. So now, we write the same prescription in order to effect the same outcome. It's the only right thing to do.

NOW FOR THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN --- This scenario doesn't account for two things. The first is something that is obvious and the IMF cronies are doing all that they can to shore things up in Asia before we have a US meltdown.

1. Asia continues to simmer / requiring continued IMF intervention - The worst scenario for the controllers of fiat currency is a continued and long-drawnout affair in Asia. They want this thing to go away as quickly as possible. They only want to commit the least amount of paper necessary to bring this to a hasty conclusion. The only problem is that it's already gone on for 2-3 months longer than they originally wanted. They thought that the mere commitment of IMF funds would satiate the hunger of the Asian beast and put it back in its cage. Unfortunately, this thing drags on and the beast continues to rumble. ---- Not a good scenario for the fiat currency freaks.

2. US slight-of-hand game - If the Asian contagion hits the US, then the application of the IMF model comes into play. By already establishing the sound precedent of this kind of solution, then the use of taxpayer funds ( through the IMF ) will be an acceptable thing to do. All the FED has to do is to create a little more funny money, shore up the distress, and life is good. This isn't complicated at all.

THE OUTCOME --- This is the hardest thing to predict. But if Asia continues to simmer and the contagion begins to spread, then it will be difficult to pump IMF money into Asia and the US simultaneously. The fear of the handlers will be that the dirty secret will get out ---- That is... funny money is created and debt is used to give complete absolution for sin.

I am willing to concede that such a ploy may work in the short term. But as more debt is created through the issuance of legal tender, there will be an ultimate day of reckoning. Each time that the handlers paper over the problem, they actually escalate the ultimate impact. -- One can use the model of geologic movement along a falt line. If lots of little tremors keep the plates moving, then you don't have a mega-event: major earthquake. But if there are no tremors, then the pressures build to such a point that there is a major earthquake. The same is true about abuses in the economic world. If little tremors cannot occur by papering them over, then we will ultimately experience the big quake. Right now, I'm banking on my understanding of the geologic rules.

Unfortunately, due to our enlightened move to fiat currencies, we have forgone the little tremors in life that kept the plates moving - and kept governments honest. Gold and Silver Coin - as established in the Constitution - guaranteed the systematic movement via small tremors. But those out there who don't like little tremors screamed loudly. Govt obliged because they saw the benefits of devaluing / debasing the currency through inflation. And as inflation has continued to grow ( without the little tremors ) , we have saved ourselves from minimum pain at the expense of maximum pain.

Now, we have a situation where we are pushing the major quake off into the future. Because each time we calculate the magnitude of the tremor that would reflect the true quake of the day, it is intolerable to us. So, we paper over the quake and push it off to a later day. Some time, the paper will not work and the earth will rip open with a vengence.


INFLATION MUST ULTIMATELY BE FACTORED, BECAUSE IT IS DEBT - pure and simple. There will ultimately come a time when the market will say - enough is enough. Someone will see that there is a need for true money and that gold / silver coin are the only true money. Then those with the means of salvation will use their new found wealth to rebuild from the ashes of the fiat system.

If the EMU creates a gold backed currency, then this will change the playing field dramatically. Any guesses whether there are major players behind the scene who are either trying to disuade the Europeans from implementing a plan that is such a risky scheme or maybe there are plans underway to short-circuit a gold-backed Eurodollar.

It will be very interesting to see how this ultimately plays out. Because if there is a gold-backed Eurodollar, then the entrenched / inflationary standards of monetary policy will have to be rewritten hastily according to the true laws of the market. --- It will be a very sobering situation. No more easy money for those who are addicited to it - particularly the US Fed Govt who has perpetrated this SIN on the public for 65+ years.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:31
zeke (Preacher,s Level Head) ID#307271:
Children puuuhhhlease, herenow! Preacher where are you. Slide that clean blade in here and prophesy! The XAU seems ambivalent about this Gap Theory.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:31
Birdman (Re: LGB Investment techniques) ID#217217:
LGB, A few questions about which trading techniques you use. Do you mostly trade by momentum techniques? If so why? How much store do you place on other technical systems of trading and how much on fundamental analysis? Would you be able to recommend any books, websites or software packages that you use? Or have you developed your own trading system?

Thanks in advance

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:31
Ted (Just had a brilliant phone convsersation with Mr. EB.......'gold talk'...eh) ID#330175:
Looks like the ole Dow is doin alright t'day,huh....Xau-.90...Time for the recliner,huh...*go $^&*%@*

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:29
OLD GOLD (Veneroso) ID#238295:
Text of Veneroso conference call was supposed to be on the net yesterday. But the target date has been pushed up to April 15. Will post it here as soon as it comes out.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:24
EB (Hey Ted) ID#22956:
How was the walk? ( walk-walk ) ..... ( puff-puff ) ......aaaaaaaaah. Throw Willy a bone for me. GO ( acapulco ) Gold!!
away...to work
Éß

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:22
LGB (@ Isure, Robnoel) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Isure...thank you. Robnoel, I seldom give the purcahser advice. Don't want to be a Puetz and make promises I can't keep. I just sell them what they want to buy, with the admonition that there's risk both ways, but I do elaborate to them that my OWN belief is that silver will rise, Gold will rise, and hence many categories of collectible coin will rise with them.

Also, Numismatic considerations drive gains in some coin market segments, even when the metals don't rise. I stick with high grade, brilliant Uncirculated Gold Saints and modern Proofs, and U.S. silver BU coin, certified and raw. But I wont to avoid that subject here as I have no intention of promoting biz on thsi forum, and have worked very hard to keep it entirely separate from my comments here. ( Other than giving the ocassional opinion on why some coins might be better than others, etc. )

I don't deal in bullion, ( except as an investor ) because too many excellent high volume dealers exist with whom I could not compete on price.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:21
EB (morning call) ID#22956:
http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2553672262-7ab
good reading in between the jabs at one another. Remember what Rodney King said........
away...to Augusta, Georgia
Éßirdiesandeagles..ohmy

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:21
Prometheus (@LGB) ID#210235:
A coin dealer in my neck of the woods? Put a little notice in the classified, please. Two dealers near me have closed their doors. Was going looking for one, letting my fingers do the walking.

BTW, if you don't wear your skepticism like a red badge of courage out here in California, you soon start chanting. Have you noticed?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:21
A.Goose (Want a nice morning ...) ID#20135:
Copyright © 1998 A.Goose/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gold recovered to the positive side, platinium and palladium looking strong and silve off its lows.

Could somone post ( JUST for FUN ) the price of silver, platinium and palladium 12 months ago. Memory jogger...

As everyone knows comex eligible gold stocks are low. The key question is can people resist closing out their delivery contracts when they see that gold is just moving off it bottom. The closing of your contracts willguarantee a strong upward move in gold's price. Just how often is such an opprtunity come along.

3,858 contracts are scheduled to take delivery in april. Only 1,440 contracts can receive their gold becuase comex only has 143,071 onces left in its eligible stocks.

WOW!!!! If 37% of the contracts schedueled for delivery take delivery because the want to catch the rise in gold ... It is incredible.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:21
ForkLift__A () ID#324266:
JSE All Gold Index down 0.63% to 946.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:15
jman (They are playing,) ID#251268:
Norman and Couples paried,all this bantering while mildly
entertaining at times is just shadow boxing,most of us know
that you can't win a arguement and sway aomeone to your way
of thinking at the same time. GO GOLD!!!!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:15
LGB (@ Tolerant) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
What next Tol...pictures of starving Indonesian children attached to your posts? Puuuhhhleaase, you remind me of the CLinton's with that quick change artist junk. This economy has created more wealth and prosperity WORLDWIDE, than any economy in history. Need I remind you for the millionth time, the Asians who have seen their currency's decimated, are STILL a hell of a lot better off then in the Good ole days when we were sponsoring children in Korea as that whole country starved.......

Gold is an inert metal that never fed a soul. Human endeavor, and the economic tools that have helped fuel it, has achieved much for civilization, in a short time. Save me the Gloom and Doom sob story nonsense. Peddle it to those who don't remember the centuries before this one eh?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:11
isure2__A (@LGB) ID#368244:

I'll take those 1200% credentials anytime, don't always agree, but who does.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:10
robnoel__A (LGB....you say you are a coin dealer,question,what do you tell your clients,when the ask why should ) ID#410198:
I buy coins.? insurance perhaps........any responce to that secret society I spoke about yesterday.....Central Banks

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:08
tolerant1 (LGB - you know nothing about me child.) ID#31868:
Tsk, tsk, tsk. And while you count your baubbles I remind you of the suffering around the globe, just because it has not hit your precious neck of the woods yet does not give you any more or less right or reason to speak in the manner in which you do.

When we meet in the street if fate would be so kind, I shall have compassion and give you money to purchase a new broom.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 12:02
billbob (LGB) ID#206379:
I believe Twain said it. Everyone hates success, someone elses that is.

Can you imagine the flow of emotion in Buffett's direction?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:59
LGB (@ Spud, Tolerant, et al) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Lot's o sour grape sounds coming from your quarters boyz. Yes I know it's annoying when a non credentialed, professional makes excellent gains as you guy's lose your arses following you vaunted experts, however, as I said, my respect goes to the successful, not the academic.

yes, ANY idiot could have made good money in the past few years in stocks. No question about that. But it'd take a real moron to NOT have gained from the best bull market in history by follwing the like of the Granvilles of the world.

AS to my broker, credentials, etc. I've never misrepresnted myself on this forum as anything other than what/who I am. I enjoin the discussion as an active investor, PM buyer, Coin dealer, and long term follower of the metals market. My broker? Why would I waste money on one?

In my 401K plan, Fidelity is my brokerage house, but of course I make my own trades, which involve no comission. Independant investment funds are all done in my AMeritrade account, and before that it was Chalrles Schwab. I havn't used an individual broker since the 1970's.

I could care less whether you believe my gains are real or mythical. They matter to me, but it was no spectacular feat. There are 22 year olds making millions anually doing Momentum investing these days, and playing both long AND short moves.

I've made many market calls on this forum, IN ADVANCE, the body of which far eclipe any calls you two have made, with your perpetual Crash imminent nonsense. I don't blame you for being cranky as you watch the world go by.... maybe some day you too, can get yourself a piece of the action boyz.....


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:58
kuston (silver - D.A.) ID#273227:
Thanks for the post - its time to throw the dice.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:58
BillD (gOING up...FLOOR PLEASE...) ID#258427:
11:58AM
9010.06
+118.58

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:56
EB (rising to take the bait....) ID#22956:
Like a large-mouth Bass in the early morning on a glass covered lake. Snatch!......zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz ( drag ) .......reel 'em in!!!!
LGB always manages to hook 'em. Hats off LGB. Yu da man.
away...to find a new fishing hole...this one's too crowded
Éßhooklinesinker

go Plat!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:56
Frustrated (Spud Master) ID#298259:
Remember it's easier to return 1200% on $1 than it is to return 1200% on $1,000,000.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:54
Open-Loop (Premium On Us Eagles going up?) ID#176200:
Stopped by my broker yesterday to Pick up my order and discovered that
the premiums on Eagles went up 3 bucks. He said the mint is cranking
24 hrs a day, 7 days a week and is having a tough time keeping up
with demmand! He also says his sales are 3x over last year at this
time. Happy my core position was established @$290!
I smell Paper burning... :- )

not speaking for my employer...

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:53
BillD (Looks like the boyz have done it again) ID#258427:
DOW....11:53AM
8999.60
+108.12

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:47
tolerant1 (suspicious - what is your email) ID#31868:
if you don't like to air it publicly send me mail at tolerant@hotmail.com

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:46
LGB (@ Sam....no change of heart) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sam, I havn't changed my investment view. Alberich has it right. I'm a devil's advocate skeptic. It helps me remain objective about my portfolio. I hold no mutual funds at the moment, and no plans on buying in soon. ( Other than the ocassional 1 or 2 day play ) I have a large stake in my own empolyer's Company ( LOR ) which incidentally hit a new all time high today, and has made me 400+ % in less than 4 years. That's my only non mining share stock investment.

My secondary career is Coin dealer, ( I moved over 400 K in inventory so far this year ) thus I benefit in that endeavor, from rising PM's, but try desperately to maintain a detached and objective view of same.

As to metals, Gold saw it's bottom at $280 as I had called for in advance on this forum. ( Me and every other shmoe, including even a few credentialed folk ) . I'm accumulating a smallish Gold position, about 8% of my overall portfolio.

I have a much larger stake in physical silver and Platinum, which I started buying in July and August, promoted same on this forum at that time. Silver's up 45% over my average buy price, Platinum about 12%. I'm holding the Platinum a little longer, I'm holding the Silver LONG term. ( At least 1 to 2 more years minimum )

As a small fish I don't mess with derivitaves, which can quickly destroy hard won market gains, as anyone following brilliant credentialed analysts on this forum ( such as Steve Puetz ) may have realized by now.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:44
Spud Master (@LGB and that 1,200% gain...) ID#273112:
mind posting any verifiable info, broker's phone#, your trading account# so we non-rocket scientists can verify your super-duper performance

or, also known as,

Those who have it, don't have to brag it

and, as my President says, have a nice day! = )

Spud, working with thixotrophics today...

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:40
tolerant1 (LGB - So then you concede that your credentials - $ are not in the) ID#31868:
same league as; Mr. Yourdon or Mr. Yardeni. As I have not seen any of your books or consulting papers, nor have you been at any time invited to present the keynote dinner speech for the Bank of International Settlements.

Thank you, I now have, in your own words, a method, a yardstick if you will, upon which to measure the efficacy of your commentary.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:38
Pete (Tolerant1) ID#222231:
As LGB would say, SMELL MY SHEET.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:33
LGB (@ Tolerant) ID#269409:
Credentials mean sh** as far as I'm concerned, unless accompanied by sucess in your market calls. My credentials are 1200% gains in my investment portfolio in a decade. Those are my credentials...

( PS, I have a BSEE and work in the field of rocket science. I'm not a professional ANALyst, nor do I aspire to same. Ahhh, if only I could have the credentials of a Puetz... )

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:28
Pete (ALL-How about giving LGB the CLAP!) ID#222231:
Everybody ( SHEEP, FANS, IDOLATORS, IDIOTS, MORONS ) leave, now! Herr LGB has spoken to the truly stupid about logic in an insanely illogical world. I have decided to leave because as James Belushi once said, I HAVE SEEN THE LIGHT, NEVER MORE TO RETURN TO DARKNESS.

THANK YOU HERR LGB!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:27
sam (LGB, you forgot) ID#286279:
* Get on board before the train leaves the station.

Why the change of heart?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:27
tolerant1 (LGB - I thought I would save everyone some time as well, would you please) ID#31868:
list your credentials as all on this forum would like to see how you stack up against the following and their obvious and publicly stated views.

Mr. Ed Yourdon
Dr. Edward Yardeni

Thank you

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:19
chas (A.Goose, JTF and Allen) ID#342282:
I can get several years back on COT reports but they are zipped. I can't get my system to unzip. Any help? May also get the the CFTC to work on same for eligibles Thanx, Charlie

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:19
Suspicious (Tolerant1 / Gold shares & crash ?) ID#285121:
Tolerant I certinly agree with you on gold shares mid, and long term. However take a look at the XAU for oct. 27th. Looks to me like sell BEARX and buy gold shares sometime after the market heads south. I don't believe gold will make a major move till the equities start to tank.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:18
Frustrated (Preacher) ID#298259:
You are a wealth of knowledge when it comes to small mining shares. Thanks for the information yesterday on PCR and REO. BTW, I too am addicted to your Market Comments. It is one of the few posts I always seek out. Your analysis shows you have a good grasp regarding market directions.

Thanks for sharing all your hard work with us.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:17
ALBERICH__A (@LGB (11:06) Wonderful Humor!) ID#212197:
I really enjoyed your post!
But when I simply weigh the risk of entering the big sheep flock stock market compared with the risk of gold mining stocks I stay with my bet on gold.

Please continue posting. You play the role of the enfant terrible or better devil's advocate very well. This think tank needs your input!

Alberich the Dwarf

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:14
EB (84 pts(UP) .....whoa(!)) ID#22956:
and trading curbs are in...... Don't get in it's way. Go Dow. No crash today.
Auric - Does London 'fix' gold tomorrow or will we use kitco close today? I agree to either one.
away
Éß

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:13
jman ( Thamks EB) ID#251268:
thats the one!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:13
fergie__A (two fergie handles?) ID#14431:

Hey, was just lurking and saw fergie posted a note to the site. Bart, is it possible to have two posters of the same handle? Or, is his handle different than mine by the underscore and A that follow my handle of fergie.

Thanks!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:10
chas (Preacher re comments) ID#342282:
You not only do it well on the comments, but have a good grasp of geo/minerology. There are tons of 10 cent+ wonders out there and I have looked at some from the resource/managment angle. ( CLN, AYM, YRI, ECM ) that appear to be on the launch pad. If these are in your venue, let me know sometime, thanx Charlie

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:06
LGB (Saving Time....) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
* All events, celestial, and terrestrial will ultimately drive POG higher.

* Y2K will end civilization as we know it...even though we've really only been fully computer dependant for a few years.

* The stock market will crash soon, causeing POG to skyrocket

* There's a tiny amount of COMEX Gold, it'll be bought up at any moment.

* Secret banker consortiums control everything but will come to grief.

* Inflation, deflation, Stagflation, and Govt. debt will soon cause a massive deflationary/inflationary collapse

* Only Gold is real money, paper profits are all mythical and no one can benefit from them. Whne we live in caves again, only Goldbugs will survive.

* All investors other than Goldbugs, are sheep and Morons who will soon lose everything, when all currencies, economies, and equity markets collapse. That'll teach em for making all them 1000% profits the past few years as GoldBugs lost their Arses

* Mystery knowledge spoken in riddles, and complex tech. analysis that always proves incorrect, are both far more valuable than simple straightforward deductive reasoning. This is particularly true when arcane methods of anlysis result in abject poverty, while know nothing Lemmings are making fortunes.

* Asian markets will crash in perpetuity and their debt loads will cause a global meltdown, cuasing POG to rise.


Just thought I'd save everyone some time today........

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 11:01
tolerant1 (One reason I am confident that mining shares will do well in the event) ID#31868:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
of a severe market downturn is simple. I have been watching the buying patterns and it is clear that many weak and or ignorant hands jump in and out of the metals with miniscule moves either up or down.

It is my contention that the people in mining shares, the majority, are in for the long haul and await the down move in general equities. These other individuals are losing their shirts buying and selling as they have been buying general equities for too long and have zero knowledge of the markets into which they put their money.

I think the mining shares will explode. IMHO

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 10:59
chas (SDRer re your 10:38) ID#342282:
You really nailed it this time. ME Porducers can get GF/SDR's and keep the gold. This is the answer I've been looking for. It may not be final because of the currency basket, but as long as the GF is involved, they have a real anchor. This elucidates Another's comments further. Also I need your mail adress if you want the yearly Fed report on Yen values. I can't send mail, but I can receive. cdevoto@conninc.com If you don't want to call, email your phone. Mine is 704 433 6473

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 10:59
Preacher (fergie & gaps) ID#225273:
Copyright © 1998 Preacher/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
fergie,
I made mention of this huge island last Friday:

In the XAU, going back to last Nov. 6, there was a downside gap still open on the daily chart around the 84 level. Last week, the XAU moved into that gap and then fell back. Today, it gapped open above it, which sort of makes the entire chart since last Nov. 6 a huge island in an island reversal. It may be that today's upside gap never gets filled and that this is a breakaway gap which means big things are in store for gold stock investors.

I am quite unpleasantly surprised by this morning's action. If gold were to close at its present level, the weekly gold chart will look quite weak. Ditto for the XAU which would look even worse.

The day is young. Let's see what happens.

The Preacher

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 10:56
chevy () ID#287358:

Wow! It looks like the yen bottomed. Up 2 in the morning. Now down 1.22. If go thur 1.29 it will be confirmed. Go Gold!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 10:55
EB (jman) ID#22956:
try this. The Masters......YES! Go Freddy!
http://www.golf.com/tour/majors/masters/
away...to watch POG
Éß

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 10:54
Prometheus (@Such a morning.) ID#210235:
Some friends, whom I was trying to interest in precious metals tuned in to Kitco just around the time Ziva named herself Queen of Kitco. Would that it had been today!

Sharefin, thank you for being the finned one who shares. Some of us long for the gift of poetry. You have it. I am content.

Donald, your continued exposition of one of the truly great events of our time, the rolling wave of economic collapse that is heading our way, is invaluable. I hope you have the time to write the book someday, a classic future reference work.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 10:49
fergie (GAPS) ID#336266:
Copyright © 1998 fergie/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Preacher - regarding your analysis of the gap on the XAU - I too, was a little surprised that recent action did not fill it. And with yesterday's reversal, it is somewhat less likely, although I still feel it has a strong chance of being filled. Perhaps an even MORE SURPRISING surprise, however, is that there is a gap IN THAT SAME AREA from early November. Being a student of gap technology, you should recognize that this is an ISLAND BOTTOM of the HUMUNGOUS varity, if not filled. Given the irristability of trading gaps, if it survives, we are looking at a powerful market, indeed.

Hope this letter finds you in good helth and sperits.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 10:47
2BR02B? () ID#266105:


Posted by Leland, worth a close read, Japan's troubles
in lucent detail, the picture found elsewhere in bits and
pieces, in this editorial all in one cogent place.

http://www.economist.com/editorial/freeforall/current/sf1048.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 10:46
APH (Silver, S&P) ID#254201:
The min. objective 0f 6.20 on the short silver trade ( 4/7 23:59 ) was barely hit this morning. If you didn't grab it move the stop down to just above todays highs. There should be downside cycle presure on the metals for another 1-2 weeks. If 6.20 doesn't hold next obj. 6.00-6.05. I bought the June S&P yesterday at 1107.50 ( 4/8 9:41 ) , sold and reversed today at 1118.00 with a 1121 stop. Obj. 1090-1095 next week.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 10:38
SDRer__A (Pricing of things---a very moveable feast....) ID#287277:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
From the FCC post
International Telecommunications Division, Policy & Facilities Branch
Accounting Rates of the US, UK and NZ

“A gold franc has a fixed factor for converting it to SDR ( 1SDR = 3.061 GF )

from the BIS annual report--
for their conversion purposes 1 GF = $1.941 48XXX

Under BIS conversion, 1SDR = $5.95?

Yet another tiered pricing system?

Whomsoever is clever enough to assure an agreement is written defining the SDR in terms of the GF increases their profit margin or potential damage awards mightily!...

mmmmmm....what a DIFFERENCE just a little fraction of gold makes....didn’t someone who visits Kitco make mention of this?

And do note that it would appear quite possible that an agreement, or
contract, or rate schedule could set the SDR at 10 GF per!
And NO INFLATION ever appears in the indexes! Clever, yes?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 10:33
jman (Mecca ?) ID#251268:
I think there are millions there for Holy Holiday,I am not
a Muslim but I wonder if they refrain from business?also thought it
was great of Saudia Arabia covering most of the cost and building new
infrastructure,any insight on this would be apreciated,GO GOLD!!!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 10:23
Spanky (@STUDIO.R ) ID#286262:

In regards to the prices of things, the gold/new suit ratio must be out of whack. I bought a new sport jacket for Easter and 1 OZ of gold wouldn't cover it. A complete suit is running 6 to $700. So will we see suit price deflation or a run up in P o G?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 10:21
jonesy (The Ten O'Clock Gold Shorts) ID#251166:
Doesn't look like the dogs of 10 a.m. are spiking the POG as far down today. In fact, since Monday, they appear less effective with each passing ten bell toll.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 10:07
jonesy (@ HighRise) ID#251166:
-
That DiVito movie was *Other Peoples' Money,* a great flick about how a Wall Street capitalist takes over an anachronistic steel or copper cable manufacturer. The finale is the scene at the shareholders' meeting. Despite all the banter about loyalty to the old firm, the shareholders agree to sell out to DiVito, showing them the money, the persuading argument concerning free market advancement vs. resistance to change.

Another great movie that came out around the same time ( late '80s ) is *Barbarians At The Gate,* staring James Garner. It's a comedic dramatization of the leveraged takeover of RJR Nabisco. You can probably rent either for 99¢ at your local cut rate video emporium. Great, incisive entertainment. Bad language for little kids though, and not conducive for a date night.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 10:01
jman (The Masters ?) ID#251268:
anybody got a good site to follow the action there? thanks

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 10:01
Speed (D.A.) ID#28861:
Whether or not it all happens, your reporting is intriguing. Please keep posting.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 09:56
MoReGoLd (@BART HELP) ID#348286:
Any way to get the quote servers going. Thanks...

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 09:56
chas (Donald re Jap Quake) ID#342282:
Could be, but I had originally estimated a possible 7 to 8. I don't know why the news report said no damage and no casualties, also no tidal wave warning. So far my experience with stronger emf waves is on land. None that I have heard of were as massively disruptive as the Big Mag. If I had to put it down, I would it is yet to come. We may hear more from Jap on this report. Thanx for your diligence, Charlie

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 09:54
ALBERICH__A (@mozel and ALL: IMF's Politics $ Indonesia) ID#212197:
Copyright © 1998 ALBERICH__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
In an article published in The Washington Times I'm reading about the agreement which was reached yesterday between the IMF and Indonesia:
Yesterday's agreement.....eases requirements that Indonesia abolish subsidies for essential foods and fuel....

Doesn't that show to everybody what IMF's politics is all about?

They enter the internal affairs of a dictatorship trying to force Suharto's regime to starve the own population. And when this bad guy doesn't agree to kill his own people through starvation, but wants to maintain the freedom to subsedize essential food for the starving population, they say it's all his fault that these negotiations take so long.

That's just one simple example of how these banksters fight for their terms and conditions.

Alberich the Dwarf

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 09:51
jman (Studio R~~~lucky) ID#251268:
you,try come to Hawaii and see what you get for 5 bucks.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 09:50
D.A. (don't.know.much.about.jackals) ID#7568:
Silverbaron:

Seems to me the writer was speaking about the gold market. I know of no 'games' going on in that one.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 09:50
chas (Donald re Jap Quake) ID#342282:
Could be, but I had originally estimated a possible 7 to 8. I don't know why the news report said no damage and no casualties, also no tidal wave warning. So far my experience with stronger emf waves is on land. None that I have heard of were as massively disruptive as the Big Mag. If I had to put it down, I would it is yet to come. We may hear more from Jap on this report. Thanx for your diligence, Charlie

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 09:42
Fred(@Vienna)__A () ID#185448:
to father&son sharefin:
great poems

To all:
happy easter, happy pessach and happy celebration, in case you celebrate something this weekend.

To all non-celebrators and invertebrators:
Happy trading

May luck be with you, whoever you are

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 09:32
Silverbaron (D.A.) ID#289357:
-
Is this post from last night related to the activity you are seeing?

Date: Wed Apr 08 1998 19:23

Cressy ( tomorrow ) ID#344206:

Copyright © 1998 Cressy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Look for a strong day on gold, stronger yet on Friday. The street has smelled out a precariously dangerous position and will take advantage of the situation. Will hope to cause fear over the weekend and maybe run with it the rest of the week. Will be a fine time to gauge the strength of the powers that have caused and maintained these low price levels, seeming to believe they can control an illusion inside a reality. Not as much physical metal as one would guess. Beginning to cause a problem that cannot be so easily concealed. Larger volume purchases being made. Some astonishingly large. Jackals do not always stay in packs. And if they begin to starve, and become somewhat ravenous, they will even eat their Mother.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 09:30
Shek (bye bye!) ID#287279:
Copyright © 1998 Shek/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Dr. Ed Yardeni is considered by many the #1 Economist in the US today.
He is a frequent guest on Wall Street Week TV program, and recently
had his picture on the cover of Business Week magazine. He has been
one of the leading optimists on the economy and the market for over a
decade.
But on April 7th he gave a chilling picture of the year 2000 computer crash before the Bank of International Settlements in Basle, Switzerland.
( The BIS is the Central Bank to all the other Central Banks in the world. ) His address is entitled Time to Declare War on Y2K. It has many
striking statements in it, such as I am an alarmist!, Contingency
plans for rationing utility usage should be prepared. Funds may be
needed to purchase strategic stockpiles of fuel, food, and medical
supplies. The division of labor would be radically upset by Y2K.

***A great quote is this: This last point is crucially important: It is the ground zero of the potential Y2K explosion. We all need to know if the products, services, information, orders, jobs, incomes, and payments we depend on HAVE BEEN DOOMED BY THE TRIAGE DECISIONS OF THOSE WHO
PROVIDE THEM [ emphasis added ]. If so, we might already be toast
in 2000 and not know it in 1998 or even in 1999.***

http://www.yardeni.com/yardeni/y2kreporter.html



Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 09:26
D.A. (play.ball) ID#7568:
All:

Just got a call from the floor saying that someone was chasing the 650 calls, they are 2.5 cents bid even though they are 15 cents out of the money. Makes you kind of wonder.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 09:24
STUDIO.R (@Went to the grocery store early this morning......) ID#288369:
confidently armed with the knowledge that the price index has gone down on consumables....scarfed up a gallon of 2% and a loaf of Home Pride bread....gave the checker a five spot...got back a Pair-O-Dimes. Is this what T#1 and farfel keep talking about?...ohmy darlin'...ohmy....

Gotta go to work.....and as always, GO GOLDBOOMERS!!!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 09:23
D.A. (gameday) ID#7568:
Copyright © 1998 D.A./Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All:

Today may turn out to be a most interesting day in the silver market. So far it is going as would be expected. Those that are short the 650 strike are selling pretty hard to make sure that the strike is not exercised. It appears that the longs may be executing an interesting strategy of buying the physical and getting short the May futures. This could be setting up the scenario of a late day futures run. The reason for this kind of subterfuge is so as not to run afoul of the regulatory numbers. I believe that position limits for the may contract are 1500, or very near the amount of 650 calls reputed to be held by Phibro. If they want to 'justify' ( to the regulators ) an exercise of these options they will have to get the futures price somewhere near the 650 level by the close of the day. The last time they went for the play when then futures were 12 cents out of the money they got a regulatory spanking. The argument that it was cheaper to exercise the calls rather than to buy an equivalent amount of silver in the open market, while true, was not enough to mollify the umpires. If this game is going to proceed, they will want the futures price to be near the money. If they are going to take delivery on 1500 contracts, they can not be long futures going into the exercise or they will go over the position limits. The solution to this problem is to buy the physical, and get short the futures in the morning. Later in the day, buy back futures, running the market up to 650 in the process. Finally, exercise the options from a flat futures position.

While all of the above is just speculation on what could happen, it is worth keeping in mind if you are trading this market. No matter what the charts and wiggles tell you, being short into the close today is an extremely foolish bet. This is not to say that the market will definitely go higher, it may well go lower if people are disappointed that a play is not made. If however, a game is on, the results could be quite spectacular. Since there will be virtually no markets open ( except for an evening Tocom session ) between the close and Monday morning, you do not want to be caught in a squeeze.

The nature of the dealing community right now is to run a size order just as hard as they can. A few million ounces can move the market 20 or 30 cents because no one is sure who is doing the buying or selling or what is their agenda. Because of this, players are made to pay up. If something goes on in this PM this PM, the dealing community will go with the flow.

The gold market is waiting for a close above the 200 day moving average in June futures. The last big rally in gold came on the heels of technically driven fund buying. The fund doing the buying looked like it only got off half of its position. The remaining piece may have the June future as a trigger. Right now the number is around the 316 level. Given the strength in the gold stocks, it seems quite likely that this number is going to be taken out within the next week or so. This will probably move the market up the 320 level in the spot where many will chose ( erroneously I believe ) to load up on the short side. A small pullback followed by a few retrys, and then ......?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 09:16
Silverbaron (COMEX Spot Gold Envelope Chart) ID#289357:

http://www.intersurf.com/~vor/gold.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 09:07
Ted (Studio.R.....and yer prediction(you left out the swearin & cursin)) ID#330175:
With kitco-gold ( down 2.10 ) I'm outta here for the 'daily walk'---yer turn ta roll-em Willy!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 08:59
BillD (Morning TED ... Look at that ABX SOAR......) ID#258427:
just kidding!

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 08:55
STUDIO.R (@Teddo....Analyst to the Stars.....the great sayer.....soothe deluxe'.....) ID#288369:
They're hangin' level. This is the mind portrait I have of you sixty days from now.....I can see clearly now....Sawdust all over your face, hammer in hand, headset/mic like Garth Brooks, transmitter on your carpenter's belt, hooked up to a computer, voice converter program running on computer plugged into cigarette lighter of truck. Dish on top of cab, spewing forth teddisms aimed at the Kitco satellite...and a smile on my face.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 08:51
Ted (BillD................................................go PNY) ID#330175:
mornin bro~~~~~~~

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 08:51
HighRise (STUDIO.R) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Thankyou;
But, this AM I appear to be wrong, we will see.
Give it all time.

They keep rotating the numbers. Inflation would not be down if Oil had remained constant.

They may not raise interest rates now. That's Ok - just means more Inflation later, therefore higher Gold.

If they truely want to get rid of Clinton they will raise Interest rates, breaking the bubble, causing poor economics - making the voter unhappy with Clinton.

He is kissing a lot of babies right now.
Who knows?

Have a successful day,

HighRise


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 08:47
BillD (ANOTHER run at DOW 9000 today SnP futures) ID#258427:
up 6.00 on Globex...and look at that US$ soar!! Gold holding pretty well in light of these events!!

Go Gold, Drooy and TED

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 08:43
Ted (Bre-X stuff) ID#330175:
http://canoe5.canoe.ca/FP/apr9_judgehands.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 08:42
Ted (Studio.R) ID#330175:
How they hangin t'day bro?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 08:41
STUDIO.R (@sharefin, HighRise, Myrmidon.......) ID#288369:
sharefin.....how proud you must be to offer your Father's perfect work. And I'm quite sure he feels the same of his son and his work.

HighRise and Myrmidon.....that was a course unto itself last night...your respectful discourse was rewarding for all of us...do it more often.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 08:35
Ted (PPI..................and ain't I stoopid) ID#330175:
Make that 0.3% down ( duh )

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 08:28
Ted (PPI................................................................June Gold down 1.20 @ 309.90) ID#330175:
consensus est is down .01% and 'core rate' unch----the reality ( ? ) is PPI down .03% and core rate unch....better than expecTED as 'they' say..

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 08:18
vronsky (BEST INVESTMENT INSURANCE FROM JANUARY 1959 - JANUARY 1995) ID#427357:
Copyright © 1998 vronsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Here is a pop-quiz for you. From January 1959 ( repeat 1959 ) to Janueary 1995, WHICH STOCK performed the best, IBM or Homestake Mining?

How come such a seemingly dumb question? Because the answer was so surprising to me - and I think will be to most people. The answer is HOMESTAKE MINING!

Homestake appreciated at a compound rate of 6.5%, while IBM crawled along at a mere 4.5%. By comparison the DJIA grew by about 5.25% during the same 37-year period.

Who doubts gold stocks can be a good long-term investment?

Here is what a $10,000 in each what have done during the 37-year period -


IBM…………@ 4.5%…………$48,800
DJIA…… …@ 5.25%……….$63,100
HM……… .@ 6.5%… …… ..$96,500


Source: Garside Forecast - 1995 TIMER OF THE YEAR WINNER ( TIMER DIGEST )




Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 08:09
Donald__A (@Sharefin) ID#26793:
The Japanese have cut up their credit cards right in the face of the rest of the world. As Farfel might say; I don't care, I'm paying cash. The rest of the world would do well to follow rather than insist that the Japanese are unpatriotic World citizens. Bankers don't like people who don't use credit.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 08:05
sharefin (Sign of the top? - web chatter - continued) ID#284255:
-
.......Interactive Products VP finance John Swindler had no comment on the matter

Dateline Thursday April 9th 1998 07:01:06 - WashingtonWhite house security personnel were taken aback when a white house guard reported that he saw a man who looked exactly like the president on his knees on the oval carpet with a good looking ( but slightly chubby ) unnamed scantily clothed white house intern early this morning. When questioned the president stated that he was out walking the dog at that time. The prez would not speculate why the intern and yet to be identified Klington look alike were in the oval office at that hour, other than say maybe the young lady had lost her contact len

CNBC reports recent wierd reportings of death by laughing on the CME exchange floor. Police corners in chicago will not speculate as to why 3 deaths have occured recently during the early morning Globex trading session. We suspect these deaths may have occured due to something that these individuals may have read on their computer screens. We have now advised all people who work for Globex trading companies to ensure that they refrain from reading anything on their internet screens

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 08:05
Ted (Guesss Hashimoto didn't say enuf B.S.) ID#330175:
U.S. Dollar up 1.92 on YEN....Is U.S. Post office closed Monday?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 08:04
Donald__A (Indonesia will need major international assistance a food supplies fall short.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/indonesia__5.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 08:02
sharefin (Sign of the top? - web chatter) ID#284255:
-
California Man Charged With Fraudulent Internet Stock Offer A Santa Cruz, California man was arrested and charged with 65 counts of fraud for conducting a phony public stock offering over the Internet. Matthew P. Bowin was charged by the Santa Cruz District Attorney's office with stealing about $190,000 from 150 people who thought they were investing in Interactive Products and Services Inc., his high-tech company. California authorities alleged that Bowin spent the money on stereo equipment, beach- front cottages and other personal uses instead of using the money for his company. Bowin and Interactive Products also were charged by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission with defrauding investors in the scheme from November 1996 to July 1997.

....In an exclusive interview Bowin stated I'm innocent, I used the money to improve my lifestlye so that people would have confidence investing in my company. It's a setup! said Bowin I could have invested the money in what it was suppose to be invested in but I felt that that was not in the shareholder's best interest.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 07:55
Ted (June Gold...................................................) ID#330175:
down .70 @ 310.4-----PPI out in a half hour~~~~~

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 07:54
sharefin (Problems in Japan terribly severe truly scarey no good answers years of deflation ahead) ID#284255:
-
Donald
Your http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/japan_defl_1.html

``The wealth is still there,'' he said, pointing to Japan's $1 trillion in net foreign assets and $12 trillion in personal savings.

``The Japanese consumer is on strike,'' he said. ``The consumer in Japan, of course, is the housewife. She controls the money, and she's gone on strike, closed her purse. Run the car another year, run the TV another year.

~~
This is what I see heading out to the western world.
The Japanese demographic culture is on a cycle in front of the Wests.
Their baby boomers are more advanced than ours.

When our society sends out the signals of:
I've bought enough, I've got a housefull
And we stop consuming at such prodigenous rates.
Then watch the decline.

The foundations of the West's future financial problems
Have already been set in stone.

We but wait for the events to unfold.

And we all know the effect of this on the price of gold.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 07:48
Donald__A (Japanese agency going after Y15 trillion in bad loans) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/japan_bank_2.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 07:33
sharefin (Mike - thank you - my father's heart glows with pride) ID#284255:
-
In a bright clear dream
This woman looked at me.
I met her glance,
And held my place,
Though attracted by the strength,
That glowed calm peaceful,
In her eyes, her face.

Later we met again. She spoke,
I have heard, she said, that between
a man and a woman,
there is a level field whereon
they may in safety meet.

So with an old world courtesy
My mother taught to me,
I answered honestly
if that is so it is well said.

She smiled at me and I unbent
Now both are well content
With an understanding
Of the mystery resolved
On that fair field
And all our days have been
A rich unfolding of
Life's oldest sweetest theme.


I keep a dream book in which I record such dreams as I recall. All must be transcribed at once on waking, every delay loses something, and the recollection all to often adds foreign clarity to the fleeting images of the dream.
This dream is as I wrote it down in the early dark; time unknown.
Very distinct, clear and colourful, it seemed to be a political gathering, the woman culling funds and visiting to explain, to sugar the pill with her personality I thought. I don't know where but she is very clear, very personable, bright and likeable. She looked at me and smiled, I thought she is only trying to influence me, so kept a straight face but felt the contact to be very strong, one of those spirit to spirit things.
Later we met again, I acknowledged her smile only with an inclination of the head. She said very clearly, challenging me to unbend I have heard that there is between men and woman a level field on which they may safely meet I answered still very lightly and defensively If that is so it is well said. Then I gave in and we met on that level field where it seemed all in a single smile that we lived very happily ever after. All very clear very well defined, I woke up on the edge of tears at the loss, realising that the wonderful experience was only a dream. That was on a Saturday 12th of October 1996. Hours later the wonderful sense of it was still with me and I wrote the poem for the solace of my spirit.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 07:16
Spock (Japan) ID#210114:
Copyright © 1998 Spock/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
While the links to Yahoo news have so far indicated a 'wait and see' attitude on Japan's latest stimulus package, we'll have top wait a few days for attitudes to harden.

The negative news out there is palpable.

Goldbugs, don't look forward to a Japanese collapse; there is no obvious causal effect for a POG rise. In fact it may decline as demand falls.

I keep hearing rumours from USA Gold et al. that Rubin et al. are arguing for a return to a Bretton Woods style currency arrangements with gold as its foundation. If you have any URLs please pass them on. I want some information of substance; not rumours.

Live Long and Prosper.

P.S I too have encountered the Goldborg.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 07:10
Hedgehog (Ahhh Mike,) ID#39828:
But a monk is in no need of the fire.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 07:06
Mike Sheller (aurator speeks for all of us human beans) ID#347447:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
when he says to Sharefin:

I am honoured to post adjacent to your Dad's poetry. Such a sweet life we

share. No?

How impossibly improbably inevitable to be alive right now!

Yes...a sweet life...inevitably improbable. But to be savored, for, it is all we shall ever have. Win, lose, or draw. Black helicopters, Yk2 implosions, deflations, inflations, bull, bear, and all kinds of markets aside. Let us lift an imaginary glass right now to the day ( or night, as the antipodean case may be ) to the stars, to the Sun and Moon, to the sunny side of the street. To Kitco. A way to appreciate, through a shared obsession, the wonderful mind of man in its many permutatrions, its angles and affronts. The delicacies and annoyances of opinion and analysis, the unvarnished joy...of human beanery.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 07:03
Donald__A (Latvia in crisis over dispute with Russia.) ID#26793:
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/world/story.html?s=z/reuters/980408/international/stories/latvia_3.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 06:56
Mike Sheller (A Story with Bite) ID#347447:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The Arrival of the Buddha's Tooth ( wrapped, perhaps, in the Shroud of Turin? ) puts me in mind of an old Buddhist parable I learned in 1967 at the knee of a Cao Dai sect priest in Tay Ninh, not far from the Cambodian border. Seems two Buddhist Monks were lost and freezing in a cave. As the temperature dropped, it became apparent that if there were no heat, they would soon die. Burning twigs and dried leaves, their fire began to dwindle. The only wooden item they had left was a statue of the Buddha. Throw it on the fire, exclaimed the older Monk. Aghast, the younger replied But it is a likeness of the Buddha! It is only a statue, admonished the elder, wiser man, It is not the real thing you worship. Throw it on the fire!

This is also like the wonderful story about that other Monk ( of Finance ) J. P. Morgan. During the panic of 1906, the Stock Exchange was gasping for money in a sudden credit shortage. Stocks were tumbling, and threatened to crash the entire financial system. Old J.P. ordered all bank funds to be loaned to the member firms. But we are down to our reserves, a terrified bank executive cried. Loan them, commanded J. P., that's what they're for!

The old Cao Dai priest told me that one too.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 06:55
Donald__A (Problems in Japan terribly severe truly scarey no good answers years of deflation ahead) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/japan_defl_1.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 06:52
sharefin (Tomorrow's a brave new world) ID#284255:
-
Ersel
A passing thought before you go.

Why did they just expand the NY stock breakers?
Like they have recently done to London.

Perchance they want the bedlam done in a day?

Aurator@ontheline
My pleasure and my father's too.

He derives great pleasure from
The 'Hallowed Halls of Kitco'
The discourse over the table is entertaining.

It is a learning course
The likes of which has never
Been seen on this globe before.

Bart would be a proud man.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 06:47
Donald__A (Japan opting for fiscal discipline has world markets jittery.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/markets_ja_1.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 06:44
Hedgehog (Hashimoto drinks in a lonely bar tonight while) ID#39828:
Copyright © 1998 Hedgehog/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
TOOTH OF THE LORD BUDDHA ARRIVES
IN TAIWAN.
Thursday 9 April, 1998 ( 7:28pm AEST )





Thousands of Taiwan's Buddhists have thronged Taipei's
internatkional airport to greet the arrival of what's believed to
be a tooth of the Buddha.

The ceremony at Taipei's international airport to greet the gift
from a temple in India was one of the largest religious events
Taiwan has seen.

Buddhists say the tooth is one of three reportedly found after
Buddha was cremated 2,400 years ago.

Buddhist monks in India, who gave the tooth to Taiwan, say
the relic arrived from Tibet in 1968, when China was in the
throes of the Cultural Revolution.



Return to the World News Menu

plus ...news from the Asia Pacific Region in Indonesian, Chinese and Tok Pisin

© 1998 Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Thu Apr 9 19:30:00 1998 ( AEST )

AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 06:41
Donald__A (5.4 earthquake rocks Tokyo. (Chas: tied to the EMP in China yesterday?) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/quake_japa_1.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 06:38
Ersel (@Aurator...Don't have time to look now ...) ID#228283:

but maybe this will help. http://www.sbv.ch/sbcweb/stockexchangeflash/equities/stocks_e.html gotta run.Goodnight from the chilly Midwest.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 06:37
Donald__A (Euro is likely to be of limited global significance she says. (she hopes?) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980408/strong_eur_2.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 06:32
Donald__A (Indonesia-IMF agreement, already a day late, apparently has more glitches.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980409/indonesia__1.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 06:28
Donald__A (A worse case scenario could threaten the entire financial system) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980408/millennium_2.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 06:26
Leland (Worse to Come - Japan Update. (Linked From Fiend's SuperBear Daily Report_ ) ID#316193:
http://www.economist.com/editorial/freeforall/current/sf1048.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 06:25
Donald__A (BIS revises rules on capital adequacy.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980406/bis_amends_1.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 06:21
Ersel (@ All....What if....) ID#228283:

there is no ''crash'' but a gradual,agonizing decline orchastrated by the A.G.s of the world. Is there not enough liquidity out there now to dampen a crash?'' It seems to me, No Crash, No Panic... and the mindless ones would continue to buy on dips.....forever.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 06:20
Donald__A (@Auric) ID#26793:
The BIS is the Central Bank of Central Banks. It has no authority to print money. It has no currency to issue except gold.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 06:17
aurator (Humanity-more than a collection of human beans--) ID#250121:

Sharefin

I am honoured to post adjacent to your Dad's poetry. Such a sweet life we share. No?

How impossibly improbably inevitable to be alive right now!

BTW Am in the market for BIS shares. Can U help?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 06:11
aurator (Allen --- All--- ) ID#250121:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Allen

There you go again. Synthesing knowledge and perception. Thank you for:

The systems and their interdependencies are invisible to us.

No wonder we like kitco, this anarchistic toddler, this watering hole for those attracted to the unchanging allure of gold! No wonder we return again and again!

To the convocation of sages:

I intuit that the society most dependant on IT, the US, will be greatest hit by Y2k.

What will it effect the 800 million village Indians?

The 1.5 billion village Chinese?

600 million village Africans?

200+ million Javanese?

None, that is, not one, of these masses of humanities measures years by the Anno Domino, Common Era, system. Not one is dependant on digital technology.


I re-iterate, or, re-aurate: --- the reaction to Y2K will depend on culture. N American truths are not universal, but I guess y'all know that, Yes?


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 06:04
sharefin (And of tomorrow?) ID#284255:
-
Farfel

Much of what you say, may come to be true.
I guess only time, as it ticks over, will give up the answers.
And I doubt that we will have long to wait.

I still feel that in the case of a 'crash'
The time to puchase gold shares
Would be the day of the crash.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I have a firm belief that
100% of the stories that come to kitco
Have a portion of truth
That we will live through
As we wing through the milenium.

My father's eyes gleam with interest
As the story unfolds.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


So stark a dream
I met old father time
On the cross road, he tired and spent
Morose and deep in thought
The keen blade upon his shoulder
His eye and his long scythe bent
Toward a crimson sunset
Lined with black cloud in the west
Where lie dreaming the Hesperides
All undiscovered yet among life's swirling tides
Lost Islands of the best.

Long years have made me bolder
I spoke with him I said
What scene in your far seeing eyes
He said a sadness in his voice
there are but few who prize
the better way and make such choice.
The common man is such indeed this day.

Then laughed such folly,
I but clear the fools away
And it is well
That sev'n wide and generous gates
Are open wide to take
The hoards, who, singing, make.
Along their chosen ways to hell.

What of that other road, I said
he laughed, and shook his aged head
that straight and narrow way ?
The better way ?
That path is wide enough my friend
For those few souls
Who choose that way today.


Heaven and Hell are like the broad and narrow ways but symbols for human states of mind, and we choose, sometimes without understanding, the way we go, the life we live, the good life we enjoy, or the small hells we endure. The good life is the personal choice of every soul who offers love instead of hatred; chooses beauty over the ugly; order above chaos; good before bad.
These are simple values but the very heart of a civilisation which makes the good life possible. To the careless as well as the thoughtful. Those who choose the easy way are riding on the backs of those who make the good life and our civilisation, with all it's faults, so possible.
The tides of violence and greed in our societies show us how delicate is that civilisation a beautiful though a light fabric indeed, constraining all the dark hubris of mankind.
We must resist the degradation of language, of behaviour, of trust, or lose the good life as have so many states in today's world and so many great empires throughout our dark history.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The STING revisited:
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q1/1998_02/980225.015449.sharefine.htm

ANOTHER revisited:
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/ANOTHER15.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 05:58
Silverbaron (aurator) ID#288295:
It seems to me that the Oxford Club was recommending BIS shares a few years ago - perhaps someone who is a member can dig up an old copy of their newsletter for the details of where to get the shares....I'm thinking that, in the U.S. Smith Barney was the source, with a 2 share minimum...But be prepared to ship them the extra gold owed when they call...1875 gold francs per share ( about 17.5 oz ) ...bbl

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 05:24
jims (Why do the Japanese and Asian want a strong currency?) ID#252391:
The Asians are trying to export their way out of deflation. Why would thsey want a strong currency?

Second question: are the silver stocks at new all time lows - new all time lows folks - I know nobody cares - silver's going to $5 at SSC to 3/4 again, Buffett sold all his silver to the Kitco fools that were excited by the appearance of his name in their fellow's posts, and who has 44 million dollars to take out the eligible gold stocks. Heck why go to all the trouble the central banks will sell it to you....

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 05:15
aurator (ABEL BIS TUR) ID#250121:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Auric

I am being led out. ex ducere. educated by a convocation of sages@pagesdotkitco. SDRer seems to be blazing a trail through the thicket of illusions directly to the heart of the matter, the BIS. The banker's bank.

There is something astonishingly simplistic about SDR-ers revelations of the past 24 hours. That is, although merica thinks herself to have the world at her feet, truth is that the older, wiser parent nations of Europe have ensured that her children colonies ( that's the US, Australasia, and the one-time Colonies and Protectorates of Africa and parts of Asia ) have been naive accomplices in maintaining the hegemony of a select number of European dynasties.

Where can I buy shares in the BIS? Is there a WWW site or a broker named Barring or someone I can talk to? Eager buyer


I mean, just cant find the reference now, but not all the shares are owned by the CB/Redshields, Yes? Some are available, Yes?


skylark

good to see ya still following us from up in the stratosphere. Your post of half a globe and three-quarters of a spin most, most informative. Obliged to you. Please drop the guano again sooner rather than later, eh?


OH_GimmesomesharesintheBIS@_EagerBuyerauratorini

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 05:11
Ersel (@John Disney_A...) ID#228283:

Under Comments of the day is this a good thing? http://www.investor1.com/gmo/

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 04:59
Ersel (Oooops ...sorry mates...) ID#228283:
Stuck my finger in the wrong place. Auracious.. you failed to use the proper appendage when trying to figure out what the BIS is attempting to do to us ...

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 04:56
John Disney__A (Talking about de ZONE) ID#24135:
for Aztec.

I like all three of these stocks .. Harmony, Deeps,
Rangy.
These are all grossly undervalued. They all show
similar chart patterns ... That is .. A prior period of
rapid fall on very light volume and now a up trend
getting close to that prior zone .. The zone for Harmony
is 4.5 to 7 ( we are in it if gold holds up ) . Deeps is
3.25 to 6.5 ( buy on a break of 3.25 ) and Rangold
1 5/8 to 2 3/4.
I would play these if and when opportunity accomodates.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 04:55
Ersel (@ auracious and Auricle...) ID#228283:


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 04:52
Auric (aurator) ID#255151:

Any thoughts on what the BIS is up to and why?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 04:42
aurator (a thousand billion stars in each of a hundred billion galaxies) ID#250121:
Auric
Thanks mate, your answer is what I was afraid of -- in other words, if this Dennis Birch character is to be believed the BIS holds 28,349 tonnes of gold, in 1990 and has being buying since. Umm. That is one quarter of the gold that has ever been mined on this sweet gold world has been whoreded by the BIS. Scrooge McDuck could learn something from the BIS?

Tell me this Dennis Birch has got it wrong.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 04:23
Auric (aurator) ID#255151:

1,000,000,000.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 04:19
aurator () ID#250121:
Ah, Auric.
please, how many zeros ( that is not a WWII Japanese aircraft ( recent discussions have hastened me to add ) in a billion?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 04:13
Auric (aurator) ID#255151:
Copyright © 1998 Auric/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Just reread sharefin's post. Can't help on corroborative numbers. A billion ounces is, if my recall is right, about triple the US Gold reserves. What has puzzled me is why the BIS would want to pull off such a sting. As I understand that post, it is because of the irresponsible, even dangerous manner of US debt creation. The US Dollar has been vested as the world's reserve currency and the US has grossly violated that trust. They need a sounder currency now. The so called Willard Group meeting on April 16 could be something to keep an eye on. Interesting also that Greenspan sits on the board of directors of the BIS.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 03:42
John Disney__A (An ambitious program) ID#24135:
For Aztec .. If on friday you can get Harmony
below 5.. I would buy it ... Then I would sell it at
7 3/4... Then I would buy Deeps at say 3 1/2... and sell
it at 7 3/4..... Then await furthur instructions.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 03:23
aurator (I know you are speaking a language that looks like english, but what is it really? ) ID#250121:
-

Help me, please with merkin numbers. I've been counting with my fingers and toes and cannot make any sense of this, from sharefin's post on Wed Feb 25 1998 01:54 aka THE STING Another twist to the CB/gold manipulation theory, from Dennis Birch's Resource Stock Digest, Feb. 1998:

My QUESTIONS to the kitco assembly--

1 How many is a billion?

2 Are there any corroborative numbers?

Along about 1972, I began to spend a great deal of time and effort in studying the BIS and its agenda. The first thing I found was that although the US had turned its back on gold, the BIS was aggressively buying it. By 1990, the BIS was by far the largest holder of gold, with more than 1 billion ounces. This amounts to an outright corner on gold.


TIA

aurafingerstoesandother@ppendagesjustdontaddup

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 03:08
John Disney__A (IN THE ZONE) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
for aztec..
Your hobby and your approach are the right
way to go. Quarterlies will come out over
next 2 weeks for the RSA stocks. They will be
bad as Gold in Rands was LOW for Ist quarter
and historically its a bad quarter because of
vacation days.
I like Deeps a lot, Rangy too, but Harmony
has been run by simply brilliant management
that seem to have done everything right for
last 3/4 years. They have resources up the
kazoo and they have cut staff to the bone.
They are said to be the world's best hard
rock miners. I think they hit a new high
yesterday. Watch the volume .. as I said
their down move from 38 to 22 rands was on
1.5 mill shares over 3 months .. dont know
their volume yesterday but friday - tuesday
was 2 million HERE - local PLUS european
buying. It is possible we get a big move in
this area.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 03:00
farfel (Corollary to my previous post...THE GREAT FINANCIAL PEARL HARBOR..) ID#340302:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
What if:

...first, the Japanese sell at least 30% of their U.S. dollar reserves, replacing them with EUROS.

...second, the Japanese sell another 30% slice of their U.S. dollar reserves and replace them with the new Asian Currency Standard.

...third, the Japanese augment their gold reserves by 10-30% in order to support the new Asian standard and give it greater global credibility ...

RESULT:

Bearish for American Dollar.

Bullish for Gold.

These are actually genuine, hypothetical scenarios being discussed in Asia. I am simply the messenger.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 02:51
farfel (WHY AN ASIAN CURRENCY STANDARD IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER....) ID#340302:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
April 9, 1998
NEW YORK TIMES

Ruffled, Japan Advises U.S.: Mind Your Own
Business

By STEPHANIE STROM

TOKYO -- As a parade of U.S. officials all the way up to President Clinton have told Japan how to fix its slumping economy, the Japanese have grown increasingly offended.

So specific have the U.S. economic prescriptions become that they leave political leaders here little room to save face: no matter what they do now, they will appear to be caving in to gaiatsu, or foreign pressure. While the Japanese routinely protest the time-honored tactic, it has often been welcomed, indeed invited, by specific interest groups in Japan who use it to press for change.

Gaiatsu has in the past been credited by officials at the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Trade and Industry with wringing much needed change from a system intended to protect the status quo.

But there is a growing sense here that U.S. officials have taken gaiatsu too far, that their demands have become so specific that they border on orders: Pump an amount equal to at least 2 percent of your gross domestic product into your ailing economy. And by the way, be sure to include income tax cuts and think about rolling back the increase in the consumption tax that is blamed for sending the economy into a tailspin.

Inappropriate! snapped Taku Yamasaki, the powerful chairman of the Policy Research Council of the governing Liberal Democratic Party when asked what he thought of the specific recommendations made by U.S. officials.

Koichi Kato, the general secretary of the party, who is mentioned as a potential Prime Minister, was apparently so offended by U.S. demands for a rollback of Japan's sales tax that he began blaming Washington for Japan's growing budget deficit.

We have no intention of organizing our policies at the suggestions of other countries, he said at a lecture recently. For years we have been executing reflation measures in response to American demand, and the debt of the central government has reached a level as large as the GDP.

Even Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, whose political precariousness has made him wary of making even the most tepid comments publicly, is bristling, suggesting after Clinton's remarks at a press gathering Friday that the president would do well to contact him directly rather than conduct a campaign in the news media.

Speaking in London on Friday when he announced he would reconvene the panel that imposed fiscal restraint upon Japan so it could reconsider its actions, Hashimoto testily told reporters, I'm not doing this because I was told to do it by America.

U.S. officials say they conveyed their concerns to Japan privately -- including at meetings between Hashimoto and President Clinton -- for more than a year, to no avail. The decision to criticize the Japanese publicly was a calculated one, Clinton's advisers say, after they had concluded that business groups in Japan who had been pressing for far stronger government action needed allies. Europeans and International Monetary Fund officials have made similar pleas that Japan pump up its economy.

Thursday, Hashimoto is expected to formally announce the details of a plan to cut taxes and increase spending to help revive economic growth. Wednesday, Parliament approved a $582 billion budget for next year, clearing the way for the government to consider the prime minister's plan.

So hasn't gaiatsu worked in this case?

If the Japanese people didn't want the economy to be reflated, you could say it was a case of gaiatsu working, said Saadaki Numata, the government spokesman. Gaiatsu is something that forces you to do something you don't want to do. We've always been interested in stimulating the economy.

Japan has tolerated an unusual level of United States advice since the days when it was under Gen. Douglas MacArthur's administration. But the relationship between the two countries has shifted in the last decade, as Japan emerged as an economic powerhouse and a new generation of leaders took over from those whose actions and words were colored by Japan's experiences in the aftermath of World War II.

The generation who feels the two countries are completely equal is in charge of politics now, Yamasaki said.

He is particularly annoyed by specific suggestions about how Japan should manage its economic affairs, annoyed enough to have accepted an interview to discuss gaiatsu when he normally shuns meetings with foreign journalists.

It is fine to comment on macroeconomic matters, he said. But we cannot accept all kinds of comments about the contents of policies. It is like Japan telling America when to cut taxes or lower the unemployment rate and ordering it to take this policy for that purpose.

Such comments make American experts on Japan like John Neuffer, a political analyst at the Mitsui Marine Research Institute, chuckle. He worked for the Japanese Foreign Ministry in New York in the 1980's, when Japanese companies were buying up American icons like Rockefeller Center and Columbia Pictures and books predicting imminent Japanese supremacy were a dime a dozen.

Ten years ago, the Japanese were telling Washington the world needed some real leadership from the U.S., he said. Now the shoe is on the other foot.

That sentiment is echoed by the new U.S. ambassador, Thomas Foley. I think the message has pretty clearly been given, and we've tried to do it politely but consistently, he said.

But many here say that the Americans are failing to account for Japan's political realities.

The amount of expertise on Asia and Japan is the lowest I've ever seen, said an American economist here. No one in this administration has a longstanding understanding of this part of the world.

The Japanese budgetary system, for instance, made it difficult for Hashimoto to introduce a supplementary spending proposal for the economy before the budget itself had been approved. Nonetheless, a number of U.S. officials demanded prompt action while the budget was still pending.

The Japanese have also been reluctant to take bold measures to stimulate the economy because doing so would swell Japan's budget deficit, one of the largest in the world.

Hashimoto, who has made trimming the deficit a top priority, is politically very weak. Any of the measures the United States has recommended to stimulate the economy would require backtracking on fiscal reform as it is currently embedded in law, and any sign of backtracking by Hashimoto is sure to result in calls for his head by the party's internal opposition.

I'm not so sure people realize the sensitivity of the political situation in Japan, said Katsuhiro Fujiwara, a managing director at the Keidanren, Japan's powerful business association, which has itself advocated same sort of stimulus measures the United States has proffered. Many in the party see this as the best chance to upset the Hashimoto team.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 02:40
ERLE (@farfel) ID#190411:
Between goose and you, Are you serious? or is it as easy to glom COMEX as you are hinting? ( Or, should I say bludgeoning ) . If it is true, ask them to wait. IDHAIRW-
I don't have all I really want.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 02:38
aztec__A (@I've been buying more!) ID#255304:
Copyright © 1998 aztec__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Why buy? It's simple, gold is low. Gold used to be high.
I bailed on the Dow in Feb. Those PE's are just tooooo high for me. $50 today for $1 later, give me a break!
I studied finance at ASU, though I don't do it for rent, it makes for a fun hobby. Secondly my father has been a fan of metals since way back. It's a genetic thing I suppose.
I have been slowly accumulating since 12/97. Played the dips a little but am in for the long haul now.
I believe in the growth potential of CAU primarily because of the takeover/JV possibility. Their second mine is a solid kick in their bottom line.
As for TVX, aside from its financials, it seems to be a popular play. It's volume is fairly strong in a relatively calm market. In addition, the upside potential if the operations in Greece ever get off the groud, make it a much more profitable firm.
Based on the Vronsky/Disney golden-eagle study, which will probably alter the buying activity of many ex-Dowites, I will purchase shares of one of the SA firms. It is a basic Ounces for $ move. How could anyone not buy one of those firms!
I am interested to know if anyone has done a POG/Share price estimate for DROOY & RANGY.
POG 310 R..... D......
320
330
340
350
Take care

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 02:29
farfel (@SHAREFIN...corollary to my previous post...) ID#340302:
...silver and Warren Buffett...a compelling example of populist perception spinning on a dime. Silver...a metal consigned to the dumpster of contemporary investments...now gaining increasing populist interest because of just one man's actions.

....and soon, I predict, an entity will step forward and purchase the entire COMEX gold inventory in one fell swoop...certainly, that little announcement ( and any ensuing panic by COMEX officials ) would result in populist perception spinning on a dime as well.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 02:24
ERLE (@the traders) ID#190411:
I am trying to come up to speed with the traders. Obviously, that is not in the cards at the moment. I am frustrated, at times, with the jargon of the trader types. I do listen; RJ, cherokee, maybe EB, certainly Preacher, have taught me something. Hey-do cherokee. Do you act as a broker, or, do you trade on your acct. only? For the less informed,IDCIBM has been ok so far. About 6.8% POG. 43% stocks. I surely do enjoy your banter. Hard asset types seem honest sometimes.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 02:19
Myrmidon (AZTEC, the article) ID#339212:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/polarbear031798.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 02:16
farfel (@SHAREFIN...my favorite poet friend...RE: GOLD STOCKS...) ID#340302:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...I think you are not evaluating gold stocks from a proper NEW GOLD PARADIGM perspective.

I think that you are looking at these stocks with a past prejudicial perspective.

First, you place your faith entirely in the physical. No doubt that is the safest approach. In your mind, paper is paper...no matter what is printed upon it. In a paper panic, you feel certain that gold paper will be dumped along with the rest.

Having followed your previous posts, I know that you derive this opinion primarily from an empirical rationale, as you observed the inability of gold stocks to move in a significantly contrarian manner prior to and during the DOW equities October '97 dive.

Yet, you must remember that, in Oct. '97, two elements existed then that are now disappearing...namely confidence in the value of the American Dollar and a complete absence of confidence in gold.

As you may recall, the dollar had never been so strong nor so stable. Conversely, gold was a pitiful shell of its former self, having been decimated by the BRE-X scandal and the spate of media announcements regarding CB gold sales and the impending consignment of gold to the trashbin of history.

Also, as you may recall, when we had last year's equities debacle, most DOW/Nasdaq investors initially panicked and threw everything out the window. There was no reason to hold gold stocks since they were not performing in their usual, historical contrarian manner. More often than not, during various earlier market corrections, gold and gold stocks fell right along with other equities. Moreover, when the great Oct.rebound occurred, everybody's grandmother and manicurist bought into it. Given that most people have been indoctrinated over time to buy the usual equities ( the Cokes, Microsofts, Disneys,etc. ) ...given that gold's past two year performance failed to behave in its usual contrarian role...then is it really any surprise that investors sold everything initially, then turned around and re-focused their investment monies on the same old, same old DOW/Nasdaq darlings.

Furthermore, last October's panic centered around the Asian problem and the sense that it would infect America's equities. Yet, most people perceived it as primarily a foreign problem, not a domestic problem. Therefore, the threat was perceived as something otherworldly and short-term...the purported negative effects were actually not felt in America at the time and most American investors no longer fear anything that is not placed in directly in front of their collective noses.

However, now we are about to enter the Great Currency Wars. The focus is definitely shifting from the micro to the macro. With currencies in much discussion today, I believe that Americans will start to learn over time that the U.S. buck is facing at least a two pronged threat to its hegemony. It is a topic rapidly coming under discussion in the media on an almost daily basis. Moreover, they will learn this new reality via the notable impending fall in the U.S. buck along with the significant uptick in domestic inflation ( stagflation ) this will bring.

At the same time, gold and gold stocks seem to have returned to their past historical contrarian role. At some point in time, the crowd will also take note of this new phenomenon. Today, when the DOW drops, usually gold and gold stocks rise. As this rise becomes more significant, more and more professionals will take note and take action. They will apprise their investors of gold's new higher esteem. Gold investors themselves will inform the public of gold's new luster. People will be re-educated. In fact, just one single week of double digit rises in gold would likely create a radical change in populist education and perspective. In other words, I believe the perception can and will spin on a dime.

Ergo, when a great equities/bonds collapse finally occurs, Americans will likely have recognized the return of the real intrinsic value of gold. In a panic, I think Americans will dump their DOW/Nasdaq holdings and buy anything with the name gold. Anything.

Like yourself, I too believe that Americans will fail to differentiate...not between paper and gold paper as you claim. Rather, I think they will not differentiate between gold and gold paper...no matter whether the gold is N.A., S.A., NYSE gold, AMEX gold, numismatic, eagles, jewellery, etc.

They will simply seek out GOLD in any of its forms and permutations.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 02:15
Myrmidon (AZTEC) ID#339212:

remove the en from golden, make it golden-eagle

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 02:14
JEW (aztec) ID#25295:
1500 rangy would be my choice, nice round number.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 02:12
Myrmidon (AZTEC my neighbour, wise to want more gold stocks) ID#339212:

DROOY and RANGY are good alternatives.
Why? In the golden eagle side there is
some analysis done by Msrs. Disney and POLARBEAR.
Go to:

http://golden-eagle.com

and read it. I hope this is the correct URL.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 02:02
aztec__A (@SA Stocks) ID#255304:
Dear Forum, more specifically J. Disney:

I have $2300 left in my gold stock allocation. I intend to purchase shares of a South African mining firm on friday and would like some suggestions. I currently hold positions in TVX and CAU. These will be held for the long term or until gold hits $30,000. Chuckle Chuckle! Any direction would be appreciated. RANGY ? DROOY? .....

Hello to Myrmidon from the southern border.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:56
ERLE (ANOTHER Thing that bugs me:) ID#190411:
-
With all of His entourage in darkest Africa: Why does he insist on desecrating one of the sacraments of the Catholic church? As a guest of Mr. Disney in RSA, I would have thought that Mr. Disney would have told at least one of the forty or so protocol officers that fouled his neighborhood that this behaviour would be- at least- an object of rancour. But, nevertheless, any goldbug can rejoice in the appreciation of their stock values that can be directly attributed to Mr. Clinton's visit. Not only can we goldbugs be thankful that Mr. Clinton said that it's OK to trade with this rough sort of people, but, we ( meaning those who have put up $50000. for this trip ) , may be rewarded also- in ways that the general taxpayer might not be aware of.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:48
tolerant1 (Auric) ID#31868:
The truth is usually stranger than fiction. Who knows if half of what Mr. H has to say is true or not. And then you have to determine which half and of what.

And with that I bid you a good evening. Chow!



Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:32
HighRise (Green Thing) ID#401237:

There is a little green thing growing in the lower left hand corner of the screen.

Looks Interesting!

Good Night All
and Good luck,

HighRise

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:31
HARDCASE (Interesting Times - COMEX spot prices) ID#400214:

I am using Quote.com's Realtime Snapshot service. For $19.95 you get 1000 realtime quotes per day. Plus exchange fees, of course.

Sometimes slow and sometimes hard to get into. Next best was $80.00.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:29
Auric (t1) ID#255151:

Wow. That story took some time to digest. Here is some other food for thought. This story may be considered half-baked, but here goes. It involves Charles Hayes, the Fifth Column and the Rose Law Firm. A good conspiracy to chew on in the wee hours at Kitco. http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a174938.htm

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:27
HARDCASE (Interesting Times - COMEX spot prices) ID#400214:

I am using Quote.com's Realtime Snapshot service. For $19.95 you get 1000 realtime quotes per day. Plus exchange fees, of course.

Sometimes slow and sometimes hard to get into. Next best was $80.00.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:26
HighRise (Auric ) ID#401237:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

It was that movie where DeVito was a corporate take over guy. and he was taking over this Chicken plant or something. His was represented by the Rose Law Firm.

Hillary, I am just kidding about the Rose Law Firm part.

Bill and Hillary will hang, whoops, stay together she is used to this, and according to their friend Dick Morris she doesn't care..may be a lesbian ... she hired Janet Reno who hired Star. Makes some sense doesn't it? Who Knows?

Bill will survive, no one wants to impeach a president who has shook their hand and kissed their kid - that is why he is traveling ALL around the country trying to touch every body.

I just heard That he is comming to a school near me.

I don't care if he shakes my hand or not...no wait a minute yes I do ..Who knows where he has had it. I wouldn't let him kiss my kid!

Impeach the Jerk!

HighRise

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:24
Selby () ID#286230:
Myrmidon: Can't execute the guy there is no death penalty in Canada.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:23
tolerant1 (Myrmidon) ID#31868:
Tortured souls for sure.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:22
Selby (Canada's Conservative party about to Disappear?) ID#286230:
To be replaced by an even more conservative party--which favours national Healthcare--of course.

http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/harris_apr7.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:20
ERLE (@cherokee) ID#190411:
Copyright © 1998 ERLE/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I am saying that there is a great deal to be said for regional music. I haven't cared for popular music since '67. Hard rock: If you want dissipation in music, go for the most glandular gonad music. That is ANOTHER reason that I detest music now. Listen to what 13 yrear olds listen to now. I don't care anymore.
I am looking forward to tomorrow to see who has the stinky shorts. I would hope that that pud from the MERRILLY-LYNCH MOB can be immolated. I, a few years ago, transferred all capital in a variable life policy to merrill nat resources fund prior to CRB going nuts- high. I lost money with these clowns. One big deal was their position in ARKLA - pantsdropper IL DUCE's piggy bank. Well, did anyone at merrily-lych-yecch ask how these pigshorts dezinformatzi were rewarded with CB insider stuff about CB sales? I wish Woolworth would tender an offer for merrillynchpiercefennerandsmith.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:18
Myrmidon (@ T1) ID#339212:

Did the 23 years age difference had anything to do with the killing?

First, the 55 year old wife was not very bright to marry a 32 year man

Second, the guy married her for what reasons? Money? Beauty? MotherHead?

Third, they should execute the b*****d.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:16
tolerant1 (easy money...yeah, these people are ready for a correction.) ID#31868:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
JOHN CUNNIFF: Are credit cards really under control?
Copyright © 1998 Nando.net
Copyright © 1998 The Associated Press
Consider this as an indication of the extent: As a matter of honor and duty, most households manage to pay their credit-card bills on time. But in a year's time they might pay almost as much in interest as they spend for food, while never reducing the principal.

When the economy slows or goes into reverse, as likely it will some day -- when raises cease and jobs become scarcer, and the credit-card borrowing limit is reached -- where in the budget will the cuts be made? In interest payments, or in spending on food?

Consumer debt in February rose $7 billion, atop a $4.6 billion increase in January, helping to bring the total of consumer debt to $1.244 trillion, for a rough average of about $12,440 per household. That's a bit high when you consider economic conditions.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:12
tolerant1 (Auric, and you thought the War of the Roses was bad. I just stumbled on this.) ID#31868:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Canadian man who killed and cannibalized his wife is insane, defense says.
Copyright © 1998 Nando.net
Copyright © 1998 Agence France-Presse

WINNIPEG, Canada ( April 8, 1998 10:31 p.m. EDT http://www.nando.net ) - A 32-year-old Canadian man charged with killing his wife and eating her flesh is not criminally responsible because of brain damage he suffered during adolescence, a court was told here Wednesday.

Dean Wride does not understand his actions and is unable to control them because the frontal lobes of his brain were severely damaged by burst blood vessels, psychiatrist Fred Shane, a defense witness, told the court.

He just can't control his behavior, Shane testified, adding Wride would always be a danger to society.

But Stanley Yaren, a psychiatrist giving evidence for the Crown, said Wride is not insane.

He knew his own actions were wrong, Yaren said, asserting that Wride was a dangerous person.

Wride is charged with killing his wife, Esther Johns Wride, 55, three days before he turned himself in to police with the story that he had helped her commit suicide. He subsequently changed his version of events several times.

The court was told that he tried to embalm his wife's body with chemicals but while doing so he snatched out her eye because, Wride said, he could not bear the way it was watching him.

He cooked and ate a piece of her flesh and drank her blood, and then stored the uneaten flesh in his refrigerator.

Yaren said Wride told him he had drunk the blood of two other people, and wanted to taste that of a third person, because he believed that he was turning into a vampire.

Shane's lawyer, Greg Brodsky, did not completely rule out his client's guilt but argued Wride should be admitted to a psychiatric hospital for life.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:08
Selby () ID#286230:
BRE-X share holders win a round in court.

http://www.canoe.ca/FP/apr9_judgehands.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:05
Myrmidon (@ all - LOOK AT THE NUMBERS, THE FACTS SPEAK) ID#339212:
Copyright © 1998 Myrmidon/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Item......52wkLow... ..Today...... %UP

Gold........279.........309.......10.6

XAU..........61.2........88.6.....44.7

JGAI........668.3.......952.5.....42.5

Comments:

If you ignore today's advance of the XAU, the SA gold index
has advanced the same as the XAU.

Many have wondered what to own, gold or stocks.
Stocks have done 4X better than gold.

If one includes the 5% min. gold coin commission, then
the gains of gold coins are a dismal 5.8%
( even through Schwabb stock commissions are less than 0.5% ) .

NA or SA or Aussie, WHO CARES

GO STOCKS !!!!....

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:03
cherokee__A () ID#344308:

jim---

here is another

http://www.bmiquotes.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/curcommt.html?source=core/bmi

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:00
Auric (t1) ID#255151:

Yep. A prophetic film, in many ways. Even had the name Rose as in Rose Law Firm. A subject we may be hearing a lot about shortly.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 01:00
cherokee__A () ID#344308:

erle--
you may also have made that note during one of the
( almost ) hundreds of times i have told
how cheap they were/are....kind-of-like a calling...
if you know what i mean.....nobody here has pushed
the options on gold and silver like i have....
nobody...

buy gold options.......they are still cheap.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:58
KMTMAN@VANCOUVER (HIGHER HIGHS AND HIGHER LOWS ON JUNE GOLD) ID#270315:
This is a good sign, Captain she's gonna blow! she can't hold back much longer.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:52
cherokee__A () ID#344308:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee__A All rights reserved

erle---

strange your reference to what you consider boring..
i grew up listening to the greatest country crooners
and pickers, along with a touch of mario lanza....
good music, is just good music......no words are
needed......listen to yanni at the acropolis....
listen to steely dan...the royal scam...listen to
the music of your mind.....it is singing.....as
are you eyes talking.

almost feel sorry for you.....to have heard, with-out hearing.

there is only 1 deserving of scorn in the annals of the music
industry....RAP! it most definitely sucks. the message sucks.
the music sucks
as does the tv message from the major networks..

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:49
Schippi (jims lost bookmarks) ID#93199:
TRY

http:///gold.graph.html

for day charts og gold, silver, plat & pallad

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:47
tolerant1 (Auric) ID#31868:
Oliver and Barbara Rose.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:46
A.Goose (Silver eligible stocks drop (-100,712 ounces) and NO Change in gold stocks.) ID#256250:
Copyright © 1998 A.Goose/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Just amazing isn't it. A active day like today. Exciting, down, down more, moves up at the end AND yes NO CHANGE in the comex gold stocks. Only 2.5 million gold paper ounces traded today. If 1,440 That's means that if 37% of the schedule deliveries take delivery --ouch! No eligible gold at comex. ( as of april 6th 3,858 contracts were scheduled to take delivery in april )


New York-April 8-FWN--COMEX ESTIMATED VOLUMES

TOTAL ESTIMATED VOLUMES
Gold 25,000
Silver 10,000
H.G. Copper 9,000

Silver

TOTAL REGISTERED
-25,296 0 33,795,629
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
-100,712 0 53,082,193
COMBINED TOTAL
-126,008 0 86,877,822


Gold

TOTAL REGISTERED
475,158 0 0 0 0 475,158
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
143,071 0 0 0 0 143,071
COMBINED TOTAL
618,229 0 0 0 0 618,229


goodnight all

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:44
Auric (High Rise) ID#255151:
I believe that DeVito quote was from The War of the Roses. I forget the two main characters' names. Was it Bill and Hillary?

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:43
ERLE (@DJ) ID#190411:
Forgive me for my error. I will look into it.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:40
cherokee__A (@----it-smells-like-burning-shorts------phew.....) ID#344308:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee__A All rights reserved

erle---

they closed today @ $520.00 each...

the silver call options did what the
gold call options are fixing to.......

make the buyer ( s ) a lot of money...we need volatility!!

c'mon hashimotorbike----sell those treasuries....time to
watch the vultures feast upon them-selves.....and it will
be a nasty fare, albeit free.....no offense albreich the midget...

gold call options are a safe way to touch, with-out being touched...

!; ) .....touching-only-what-stands-the-test-of-time------the-truth---





Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:37
ERLE (@cherokee) ID#190411:
In my profligate youth, I drove to north Missippi to run birddogs in field trials. I,on horseback was shown the rather modest house of Jerry Lee Lewis. The day prior, the IRS had siezed all of his assets including said house. If I had known this I would have charged the bastards myself. Your musical references to such bores as the beatles are incomprehensible to a few of us. I suppose I haven't run them backward enough.
I read your posts, but cannot comprehend.----whole lot of shakin'-We got the bull by the horns.----- chickens in the barn ( roosters ) .

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:35
HighRise (Auric) ID#401237:

How many does it take?

Remember what Devito said in that movie, whose name I can't remember,.....

Atomic Bombs are like Lawyers; once the other guy uses his, you have to use yours and and all they do is F**k Up everything.

There is nothing like radioactive Gas to make those 4 Wheelers Go and Glow.

HighRise


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:34
DJ (Dec 98 330 call) ID#215208:
ERLE - You may have made that note when I posted that I had purchased these calls at $350. On the next dip I doubled up. They are now showing at $520. Not bad but still cheap IMHO.


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:32
sharefin (It's long but worth the read) ID#284255:
-
Portfolio Strategy Service
Dr. Edward Yardeni, Chief Economist April 7, 1998
Phone: ( 212 ) 469-5715 #17
Fax: ( 212 ) 469-5725
E-Mail: yardeni@ix.netcom.com
Web Site: http://www.yardeni.com/
THE Y2K REPORTER
Prepared text for Press embargo until
keynote dinner speech April 7, 1998 @ 6:00 p.m.
Year 2000 Roundtable
Bank for International Settlements
Basle, Switzerland
April 7, 1998
TIME TO DECLARE WAR ON Y2K
But it would be foolhardy not to prepare for the possibility of failures.
Every organization must put in place contingency plans in case failures
occur in its own systems or in other people's.-Prime Minister Tony Blair
The following views, opinions, and recommendations are entirely my own and may or may not reflect
those of my company and its management.
Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
I would like to thank the Bank for International Settlements for the opportunity to discuss
the Year 2000 Problem with so many distinguished representatives of the global banking
and financial community tonight.

On March 4 this year, I was interviewed by Peter Jennings on ABC World News Tonight
about the Year 2000 Problem ( Y2K ) . Preceding my sound bite, the nationally televised
segment on this important issue raised the possibility of major failures in key US
government services, including tax collection, welfare payments, national defense, and air traffic control. Yet, in my 15 seconds of fame, Mr. Jennings asked me if I wasn't a bit of an alarmist with my forecast of a 40% chance of a global recession caused by Y2K:
Surely there's an element of crying wolf.1

The gist of my response was, and still is that I am an alarmist! In fact, I am becoming
more alarmed: On March 16, I raised the recession odds to 60%.2
I am especially alarmed that so few other economists and policy makers are alarmed about Y2K. My goal tonight at this banking roundtable is to alarm all of you as much as possible. If you are already concerned, as I suspect most of you are by now, I hope to inspire you to maximize your efforts to prepare for the coming difficulties.

Let's stop pretending that Y2K isn't a major threat to our way of life. There is too much
at stake for such uninformed wishful thinking. Perhaps, the time has come to act as though we are preparing for a war. This may seem extreme and unnecessary. However, if we prepare for plausible worst-case Y2K scenarios, then perhaps we can avoid at least some of them.

I do have a Y2K strategic plan to share with you tonight. It is not targeted at fixing the
computer problem, but rather on preparing for the inevitable disruptions when the problem is not completely fixed in time. As representatives of the world's banking and financial community, you are in a position to prepare the public for the coming upheaval. You are already doing so in the banking and finance industry. I urge you to use your experience, influence, and power more broadly to influence top policy makers to take bolder measures.

Here is my seven-point plan for your consideration during this very important gathering:

1 ) Year 2000 Alliance. We should draft and sign a resolution insisting that the leaders of
the Group of Eight ( G8 ) , at their May 15-17 meeting in Birmingham, form a Y2K Global
Alliance to coordinate both national and multinational campaigns. The Alliance should be
broadened to include all 29 members of the OECD and selected representatives of the
United Nations.3

2 ) Commander In Chief. The Y2K Alliance could use the expertise of military
personnel who should be involved because they have the necessary training and experience for marshaling and mobilizing resources for such a potentially huge global campaign. The G8 should appoint a Y2K Commander in Chief, for example, General Colin Powell.

3 ) Military Fail-Safe System. Military leaders of the United States, other NATO
members, and Russia must jointly assess the risk of an accidental nuclear missile launch or a provocative false alarm.4
They must rapidly develop a fail-safe joint communication and
intelligence network to eliminate any such risk.5
Measures must be taken to thwart
terrorists, hackers, and other malevolent opportunists from taking advantage of any Y2K
chaos.6

4 ) Securing Infrastructure. Y2K Sector Alliances should be responsible for the Y2K
campaigns in specific global sectors. The top priority must be to secure the supply of
electricity worldwide.7 Other utilities, including water, gas, sanitation, and telecommunications, must also be secured. Contingency plans for rationing utility usage should be prepared. Other key sectors that may require a global top-down approach include government revenue collection and debt servicing, welfare payments, farming, manufacturing, mining, transportation, distribution, retailing, banking, and finance. Y2K
Industry Alliances should have the power to organize and execute a cooperative and
collective battle plan among the world's key industries, including, for example, food,
drugs, chemicals, energy, security brokerage and exchanges.

5 ) Change Freeze. Governments should freeze all legislative, regulatory, and information technology ( IT ) changes that might divert resources from the effort to prepare government and business computer systems for the century date change. The Industry Alliances should adopt a similar change freeze.8

6 ) Mandatory Y2K Holiday The Y2K Alliance should consider requiring all
nonessential employees to stay home during the first week of January 2000. Financial
markets might have to be closed during this period.9This global Y2K holiday would give
IT personnel the opportunity to stress test their systems with a slow reboot, rather than
under peak load conditions. They could first test the integrity of basic utility services,
especially electricity and telecommunications services. Then they could bring their own
systems on-line in a phased sequence that can pinpoint weak links and either repair them
quickly or take them immediately off-line.

7 ) Emergency Budget. The Year 2000 Alliance Accord should require all participants
to fund a Y2K Emergency Budget with an initial minimum balance of $100 billion. They
should be prepared to provide much more, if necessary. The budget should be spent on
both last-ditch efforts to repair or replace key computer systems around the world and to
implement contingency plans once the weakest links have been identified. Conceivably, the funds may be needed to purchase strategic stockpiles of fuel, food, and medical supplies.

I expect there will be significant IT disruptions and failures in 2000. Some problems could start next year. 10 I am convinced that a severe recession is the most likely outlook for the global economy in 2000. The recession could be at least as bad as the one during 1973-74, which was caused mostly by a disruption in the supply of oil. Information is just as vital as oil for running our economies. If information is harder to obtain, the amount of
commercial and financial transactions, i.e., GDP, we can support will necessarily be
reduced. How much might GDP fall? In the United States, it dropped 3.7% from peak to
trough during 1973-74. Unfortunately, this might actually be an overly optimistic outlook
if it turns out that our impaired IT systems can only support a much lower level of
economic activity. Furthermore, a Year 2000 recession is bound to be deflationary. In the
United States, a $1 trillion drop in nominal GDP and a $1 trillion loss in stock market
capitalization are possible.

The IT revolution of the past four decades has contributed greatly to our global
prosperity. I recognize that there are some who question whether computers have really
contributed to productivity. I have no such doubts. Without computers, none of our most
dynamic companies would exist today. Microsoft, SAP, Dell, and Toshiba would not
exist, nor would the jobs they've created. FedEx, Wal-Mart, and Deutsche Bank would
exist today without computers, but they would all be much smaller. And, of course,
governments could not play such large roles in our economies without IT systems.

Our global and domestic markets for financial securities, commodities, products, and
services depend completely on the smooth functioning of the vast IT infrastructure.
Information is the life blood of our domestic and global markets. If the information flow is severely disrupted by Y2K, then markets will allocate and utilize resources inefficiently. Market participants will be forced to spend more time and money obtaining the information that was instantly available at almost no cost before the market was disrupted.

The division of labor could be radically upset by Y2K. This process is the very foundation of economic prosperity and progress based on the exchange of goods and services produced as a result of our comparative advantage. We all either thrive, or have the potential to do so, by producing the goods and services that we are especially endowed, qualified, or trained to produce. We exchange the fruits of our labor for the goods and services that are better made by others.

IT systems have expanded the size of the markets and the opportunities for an even
greater division of labor. Just-in-time manufacturing, outsourcing, and globalization are
the most obvious modern extensions of the division of labor. Now imagine a world in
which those IT systems either are impaired or completely fail. Suddenly, we may all be
forced to do without goods and services that can no longer be produced for us by others.
We can attempt to make them ourselves, but in most cases this will be impossible. If it is
possible, the cost and time of doing so will be enormous.11 There are no low-tech
alternatives if our high-tech information systems fail in 2000. We simply cannot manually collect, sort, store, process, and analyze all the data we must have to support, let alone grow, our global economy.12

Why am I so sure that we will fail to have all our IT systems ready and that the disruptions will be severe enough to cause a major global recession, perhaps even a depression? Fixing and responding to the Y2K Problem requires a cooperative and collective approach which is rarely an outcome of the division of labor. The current Y2K global battle plan is virtually guaranteed to fail. It has at least seven major flaws:

1. Unorganized. For starters, there is no plan. If there is one, it certainly isn't global at
all, or even national. It is highly decentralized. Each company and government agency
is responsible for fixing Y2K on its own. There are few industry alliances working to
solve the problem collectively.

2. Unaware. Even worse, there is no global campaign to maximize awareness of Y2K,
and very few national efforts to alert the public.13

3. Uncontrolled. Each Y2K-fixing entity independently establishes a triage process to
identify mission-critical versus noncritical systems. No authority, regulator, or industry
association has defined the meaning of-or established standards for-the widely
misused term mission critical.

4. Unverified. Available resources are focused on fixing mission-critical systems,
however defined. Y2K managers are free to reclassify mission-critical systems as
noncritical.14 They might do this under the increasing pressure of the looming deadline to show more progress than is in fact possible to achieve. There is simply too little independent verification of progress.15

5. Unprotected. Computer systems exchange data all the time. Information systems and
databases may easily be contaminated by data received from noncompliant or
noncompatible Y2K systems.

6. Untested. Even fixed systems could fail once they are stress tested in real time.
Most embedded chip systems probably won't be tested, let alone be fixed in time for
the century date change.

7. Unaccountable. Noncritical systems are either compliant or they are not. If not, Y2K
managers must decide whether to fix them or to let them fail in 2000. Without a
cooperative or collective approach, it is likely that some entities will doom noncritical
systems that are actually mission critical to some of their external, and even internal
dependents.

This last point is crucially important: It is the ground-zero of the potential Y2K explosion. We all need to know if the products, services, information, orders jobs, incomes, and payments we depend on have been doomed by the triage decisions of those who provide them. If so, we might already be toast in 2000 and not know it in 1998 or even in 1999.

My friends and colleagues, we must challenge the leaders of the Group of Eight nations to assure us at their next meeting that in the year 2000:

· There will be no nuclear weapon mishaps.
· All nuclear power plants will operate safely. So will other hazardous sites.
· There will be no widespread blackouts or brownouts.
· Health care services will be available to all who need it.
· Welfare and social security payments will be made on a timely basis.
· Air traffic control systems will be functioning properly and at full capacity.
· The payments system and all financial markets will operate smoothly.

If they can not make those assurances, then they must immediately declare war on Y2K!
There is still time to act decisively and to minimize the disruptions. We have too much to
lose if they fail to do so. We will lose much less if they attack the problem now. Indeed, I
probably will raise the odds of a global recession closer to 100% if our leaders do not
declare that Y2K is their top priority at the next G8 summit. What can we do on an
individual basis? We must all be at least a small part of the solution, or else we will all
surely be a big part of the problem.

Annex:_____________________________________________________________
Preface of US Guide to Business Continuity and Contingency Planning
Time is running out for solving the Year 2000 problem. Many federal agencies will not be able to
renovate and fully test all of their mission-critical systems and may face major disruptions in their
operations. At the same time, systems that have been renovated and tested may encounter
unanticipated Year 2000 problems.

Despite the efforts of each business, state and local government, and federal agency to race
against time and to renovate, validate, and implement their mission-critical information systems
every organization remains vulnerable to the disruption of its business processes. Because most
federal organizations are highly dependent on information technology to carry out their business,
Year 2000-induced failures of one or more mission critical systems may have a severe impact
on their ability to deliver critical services. For example:

· The nation's air transportation may face major delays and disruptions because the airlines
may not be able to file flight plans with the Federal Aviation Administration.
· Taxpayers may not receive timely tax refunds because the Internal Revenue Service may be
unable to process their tax returns.
· Payments to veterans and retirees may be delayed or disrupted by the failure of mission-critical
systems supporting the nation's benefit payment systems.
· College students may not receive student education loans promptly.

The risk of failure is not limited to the organization's internal information systems. Many federal
agencies also depend on information and data provided by their business partners-including
other federal agencies, hundreds of state and local agencies, international organizations, and
private sector entities. Finally, every organization also depends on services provided by the
public infrastructure-including power, water, transportation, and voice and data
telecommunications.

Because of these risks, agencies must start business continuity and contingency planning now to
reduce the risk of Year 2000 business failures. Specifically, every federal agency must ensure
the continuity of its core business processes by identifying, assessing, managing, and mitigating
its Year 2000 risks. This effort should not be limited to the risks posed by the Year 2000-induced
failures of internal information systems, but must include the potential Year 2000 failures of
others, including business partners and infrastructure service providers. One weak link in the
chain of critical dependencies and even the most successful Year 2000 program will fail to
protect against major disruption of business operations.

The business continuity planning process focuses on reducing the risk of Year 2000-induced
business failures. It safeguards an agency's ability to produce a minimum acceptable level of
outputs and services in the event of failures of internal or external mission-critical information
systems and services. It also links risk management and mitigation efforts to the agency's Year
2000 program, and helps to identify alternate resources and processes needed to operate the
agency core business processes. While it does not offer a long-term solution to Year 2000-
induced failures, it will help the agency to prepare for a potential crisis, and may facilitate the
restoration of normal service at the earliest possible time in the most cost-effective manner.
__________________________________________________________________
Source: US General Accounting Office, Year 2000 Computing Crisis: Business Continuity and
Contingency Planning ( Exposure Draft ) , March 1998. [ http://www.gao.gov/special.pubs/bcpguide.pdf]
__________________________________________________________________

1 [ http://www.abcnews.com/onair/wnt/html_files/transcripts/wnt0304.html]

2 See Edward Yardeni, Year 2000 Recession? [ http://www.yardeni.com/y2kbook.html]

3 Prime Minister Tony Blair intends to put Y2K on the agenda of the G8 meeting. UN Ambassador
Ahmad Kamal of Pakistan is preparing a Y2K-awareness resolution for the UN General Assembly.

4 In 1980, a computer-chip failure at Norad-the US command post in Colorado for assessing nuclear
attacks-generated a false alarm of an all-out Soviet missile attack. As recently as 1995, an American
research rocket sent up off the coast of Norway to study the aurora borealis so alarmed the Russians that
for the first time in their history, they activated the nuclear suitcase that accompanies the president. See
Brian Hall, Overkill Is Not Dead, The New York Times, March 15, 1998. The article suggests that
despite the end of the Cold War, the United States and Russia still have missiles aimed at each other, and
can instantly retarget those that don't have a forwarding address currently.

5 The latest US government Y2K progress report notes that the US Department of Defense has a tight
schedule for meeting massive Y2K challenge. [ http://www.cio.fed.gov/y2k4q.htm]>http://www.cio.fed.gov/y2k4q.htm]

6 In the United States, the President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection ( PCCIP ) was
created on July 5, 1996 by Executive Order 13010 [ http://www.pccip.gov/]. The stated reason for the order
was the need to assure the uninterrupted operation of critical infrastructure. The commission was tasked
with addressing vulnerabilities of eight different critical infrastructures: telecommunications, electric
power systems, water supply systems, transportation, banking and finance, gas-oil storage and
distribution, emergency services, and continuity of government. The PCCIP delivered its first report to the
President on Wednesday, October 22, 1997 [ http://www.pccip.gov/report_index.html]. It states that
solving the Year 2000 problem was not part of the commission's mission. The first sentence of
Executive Order 13010 states, Certain national infrastructure are so vital that their incapacity or
destruction would have a debilitating impact on the defense or economic security of the United States.
[ http://www.pccip.gov/eo13010.html]. Surely, Y2K represents such a clear and present danger. There is
nothing in the order that limits the commission's authority to study and make recommendations about
Y2K.

7 Recent examples of the turmoil created by a major power failure are the ice storm in Quebec and
Montreal this past winter, and the current misery in Auckland, New Zealand.

8 The Governor of the Bank of England, Eddie George, calls January 1, 2000 a day of judgment and
believes that the British government should freeze legislative and regulatory changes that would burden
the computers of financial institutions already struggling with Y2K and the euro. In Canada, Prime
Minister Jean Chretien is sending letters to all ministers and deputy ministers warning them that Year
2000 is the No. 1 priority and all other business is secondary.

9 In addition to the change freeze, the Bank of England is canvassing support for an extra bank holiday on
December 31, 1999, a Friday, or even January 4, 2000, a Tuesday. A similar proposal by the Security
Industry Association in the United States was rejected by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

10 On March 25, 1998, the Information Technology Association of America ( ITAA ) released results of a
new IndustryPulse survey which indicates a substantial percentage of companies are already starting to
experience actual Y2K-related failures. Conducted in February, the survey found 44% of respondents
indicating their organizations have experienced such failures under actual operating conditions and 67%
reported failures under test conditions. [ http://www.itaa.org/softpr7.htm]

11 Recent case studies of computer-related mini-disasters include the Union Pacific Railroad snafu and the
Oxford Health debacle.

12 According to the federal government's fourth quarterly progress report through February 15, 1998,
compiled by the Office of Management and Budget, The Federal Aviation Administration ( FAA )
continues to be at significant risk of system failure. Although the FAA has completed its assessments, it
identified 101 additional mission-critical systems since the last reporting period. Considering its slow
progress, the FAA needs to give significantly greater attention to contingency planning. What are the
alternatives if the air traffic control system malfunctions? [ http://www.cio.fed.gov/y2k4q.htm]

13 Only six countries have national Y2K awareness campaigns. A recent World Bank survey found only
37 out of 128 borrowing member countries said they were aware of Y2K.

14 The total number of US federal government mission-critical systems dropped 739-to 7,850 from
8,589-over the three-month reporting period through February 15 because of reclassification. The
Department of Defense reduced its mission critical systems count to 2,915 from 3,143.

15 According to the latest Office of Management and Budget progress report, all agencies claim that they
have active independent verification programs under way to assure that systems are actually fixed.

__________________________________________________________________

Copyright ( C ) Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Inc. 1998. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Inc. and its affiliated companies and/or individuals may, from time to time, own, have positions in, or options on the securities discussed herein and may also perform financial advisory services, and/or have lending or other credit relationships with those companies. This material
has been approved for distribution in the United Kingdom, to professional investors who fall within the exemptions contained within the UK Financial Services Act 1986 - Investment Advertisement Exemptions Order 1988, by Deutsche Bank AG London, 6 Bishopsgate, London EC2P 2AT. Member of the LSE and regulated by SFA, Tel: ( 171 ) 545-4900, Fax: ( 171 ) 545-4988.
Orders placed by UK persons directly with Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Inc. will not be governed by all investor protection provisions of the UK Financial Services Act 1986.
Additional Information Available on Request.Research


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:29
Schippi (Fidelity Select Gold Chart) ID#93199:
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Possible TURNAROUND day for both Gold & High Tech

High Tech Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/ces70.htm

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:27
Auric (Jerusalem Post-- Iran has 4 Nuclear Bombs ) ID#255151:

From the chilly Mid-East http://www.jpost.com/

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:24
cherokee__A (@---ready-for-the-last-sell-off--------) ID#344308:

big numbers coming out thur for the grains...
if they're bad for the bean...could have some
limit moves down.....that would be sweet...


don't be afraid of the lawnmower blade...

ted....give willy a brach...yes, indeed.

cherokee..!;..expecting.the.worst.....and-having-fun!; )


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:17
cherokee__A () ID#344308:

for mozel......he speaks the truth.

http://www.zolatimes.com/V2.9/amerika.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:14
HighRise (Myrmidon) ID#401237:

Sounds good to me! I will take that 9x XAU
XAU 500 why not, I may hang in all the way then. We will have more definitive direction soon - I think.

Just a side note the Boomer Kids are buying now - some are 30, see earlier post financial cycle has started again ie. 1973

History repeats, and mankind always forgets and never learns.
Let her RIP - Go Gold!!!

HighRise


Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:13
Interesting Times (bookmarks (jims)) ID#423355:
The three-day Kitco chart is at:

http://kitco.com/gold.graph.html

I'm also looking for a COMEX spot site, which I understand isn't free...

Regards, I.T.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:12
Myrmidon (@ jims) ID#339212:

http:///gold.graph.html

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:11
Myrmidon (HighRise, the Yuppies the closest they will come to gold..) ID#339212:

.. will be buying gold plated silver Eagles
which they will treasure as golden eagles.
They will be broke and unable to buy the real McCoy.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:09
jims (Lost Bookmarks) ID#252391:
Can anybody tell me what the URL is for the KITCO page with the three day charts

and the web page/ url for the service that has the comex gold and silver stocks news


Also agree tomorrow could be very interesting. We've had a test, rallied, now the PPI comes out tomorrow and bet that'll be the spring board low off which we rally in earnest.
Thanks

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:07
ERLE (@cherokee) ID#190411:
I have a scribble on a note pad about dec 98 330 calls@350.00. I wonder why I wrote that down? Do I need an invitation, or what?
What are those worth now? This was one of your less veiled references to the novices like me. The best to you O often inscrutable one.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:06
HighRise (Myrmidon ) ID#401237:

You are right, just wait till Gold becomes a fad, and then watch the Yuppies scramble for some remaining scraps.

I can just see them in line, filling up the tanks of those Big Gas Guzzelin Yuppie 4 Wheelers with $2 Gas; coming from their broker who just rotated them into a Gold Fund, which has already quadruppled; on the way to the Coin Shop, with devalued dollars in their pockets, to buy some American Eagles which are no longer available...... ( sounds like Asia - last fall )

While I am on the beach.

HighRise

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:04
cherokee__A (@---eb-----be-a-flyin------leave-the-whipping-gas-alone!!) ID#344308:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee__A All rights reserved

realistic......

'time was' by wishbone ash....one of the greatest rock bands ever.
..............................one of the greatest songs ever.

don't be a part of the past....

to all who run away to privately display dis-pleasure......stand
the ground lest it become ANOTHERS! mice or men....the coming
times will quickly sort the weak from the strong...the fez is
solid gold.....the mc golden weave....strength from with-in.

as the beatles sang....get back ( rj too ) , get back to where you once belong....yeah...get back jojo....

hell, reminds me of jo jo gunne......ANOTHER great band!! ok..ANOTHER
time....doooo..doooooo..dooooo..dooood..dooooo.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:02
Myrmidon (HighRise) ID#339212:

The 9X of the XAU in 3 yrs. is what I think
will make it a very good investment.

It will imply an investment doubling every year.
Unreasonable expectation?

XAU bottom at 62. After one year 124. At the end
of the second year 248, and at the end of the
third year around 500 give or take some change.

Doubling the money every year should be the goal.

Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:02
DBog (eck333 - Good Point) ID#267298:
Copyright © 1998 DBog/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I am an ex programmer

Have been out of the field for about eight years now.

Was in the field for about twenty-two years, wrote a lot of
code in Cobol, PL/I, Assembler, etc. I too have written/seen
a lot of code using '99' in comparison operations.

You just woke me up, how many programs have been
written and program tested, unit tested, volume tested,
system tested, integration tested, but not yet LIVE
tested ?, which is of course is when most UNDETECTED
bugs come to life.

1999 could be one interesting year.............



Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 00:01
Interesting Times (COMEX spot prices) ID#423355:
Hello all. I'm looking for a pay site that provides real-time access to COMEX metals prices. Ideally, it would also have historical data that I can use to test my trend-sniffing program... Recommendations?

By the way, it is possible to suggest that corporate CEOs may be mistaken about the bulletproof nature of their company's Y2K compliance without impuging the veracity of these aforementioned CEOs. And I do in fact suggest it...

Regards, I.T.

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