KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 23:59
fundaMETAList (General, Argent: 715) ID#341214:
Thanks for setting me straight on the number of ozs in a bag. Just goes to show you that if something sounds too good to be true...

General, why don't you take delivery of one or two bags and leave the others with Monex. You reduce your charges and have some of your stash handy. I've used my imagination a bit to store things like that. Someone that busts into your place is going to be looking for the easy grab unless they KNOW you have the things there. For that reason, I don't take delivery of PM's at my house. I go to the shippers to pick it up.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 23:49
panda (@) ID#30116:
Good night all...

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 23:47
bulldog (Texas) ID#78136:
Copyright © 1998 bulldog/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I don't expect much of the future. I have a lot in
Horseshoe Bay Texas. I think I will build. I pray that
gold goes through the roof, because I don't have a gazillion
dollars. Ultimately we will all be happy with our financial
gains, but will we truly be pleased about the chaos around us?
Gold is a funny thing. Most of us goldbugs are hoping for the
worst so our contarian views are met. While all around you are
questioning your mental state and your investments in gold have
lost 50%, after awhile you keep your mouth shut. Don't talk to
anyone about y2k because they will surely think you are crazy.
This computer problem will bring us down, but it will be fabulous
for gold. I am very depressed about the future. 2000 is the year
of reckoning. I advise all of you to find the color of your
parachute.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 23:45
panda (Ratio stuff...) ID#30116:
It's a windy, cold, snowy, sleeting, freezing rain kind of night around here. The CRB / XAU ratio has a glimmer of hope in it. some might call it constructive... ( How's that for fence sitting... )

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 23:41
themissinglink (M3) ID#373403:
Copyright © 1998 themissinglink/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
1996.01 4626.9
1996.02 4658.8
1996.03 4692.3
1996.04 4710.2
1996.05 4739.3
1996.06 4764.3
1996.07 4783.6
1996.08 4801.7
1996.09 4832.1
1996.10 4867.1
1996.11 4894.2
1996.12 4935.5 $308.6 Billion in new money for FY1996
1997.01 4961.1
1997.02 4997.8
1997.03 5032.0
1997.04 5075.2
1997.05 5091.2
1997.06 5114.3
1997.07 5154.2
1997.08 5199.3
1997.09 5237.2
1997.10 5274.4
1997.11 5325.8
1997.12 5375.7 $414 Billion in new money for FY1997
1998.01 5423.7
1998.02 5462.2 $430.2 Billion in new money March thru February

Is this accurate? It is from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis website. This new money was created and spent in addition to the government selling bonds to finance deficit spending? How can this not have shown up as inflation? Did it all go into the equities market and how?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 23:40
panda (Spread between thirty year and ninety day bills and bonds.) ID#30116:
This just reinforces the expectations of little or no inflation ahead. Anything that upsets this apple cart could be a real shocker for the stock and bond markets. Think about it for a moment; There is just about a ONE percent premium for loaning money out for thirty years versus loaning money out for ninety days... The expectation is for virtually no risk from inflation.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 23:31
panda (The almighty BUCK...(monthly chart)) ID#30116:
Any weakness here or in the long bond will do gold a big favor...

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 23:24
panda (Then there's silver...) ID#30116:
A sixty percent retracement from the years low.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 23:19
panda (In found remembrance of gold...) ID#30116:
Alas I knew him ( it ) ....

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 23:09
SDRer__A (Well--MY local grocery store has a lot to answer for...) ID#280245:

Commodity Price Index, Economist
Dollar index .............%change on one year
All items.....................-17.0
Food..........................-112.6

Sterling Index............%change on one year
All items.......................-18.8
Food............................-14.2

SDR Index...................%change on one year
All items........................-15.3
Food.............................-10.5

I find these figures passing strange....

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 23:08
panda (elf, and on the 'Death of Gold'...) ID#30116:
Regarding your 16:03 -- Yes I'm still here. Unfortunately, this thing called work has gone from six days a week to seven ( a temporary aberration I hope! ) . None the less I like the platinum group much more than gold. As to a bottom in gold, I gave up trying to figure it out...

I am amazed at how little discussion was/ is being given to the Barron's article ( Other Voices ) on the Death of Gold NOT. The basic article equates the current feelings towards gold as the same as was held towards equities in the late seventies / early eighties.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 23:05
Haggis__A (Adrian (Clinton Invokes Excecutive Privilege)...........) ID#398105:

I tend to think that Clinton has been using his Executive Privilage all along.........just ask the Ladies concerned !!

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 22:59
zeke (2BRO2B) ID#25255:
Copyright © 1998 zeke/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thanks for remembering. I was beginning to check me underarm talc.

Ever been to a black tie wearing a brown suit? Surely some of you metal-o-philes are half-century pieces. Of course the doomsdayers of the fifties had no clue--thinking the end would come so easy with a few hundred nukes. Who ever dreamed of CB's controlling all the real coin, of crazy people with Keiber rifles sitting on all the petrol or of B.C. funny money. Those people thought monopoly was just a silly game played with fake money. Nobody really paid any attention to T.S. Elliot's Not With A Bang But A Whimper. We remainders though can now see some things more clearly: Real money and real assets are essential to surviving these next ten years. Go Shiney Stuff!!

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 22:44
Cyclist (Jeil) ID#339274:
I believe to see a short rally for three to four days.
This rally could be anything from 305 to 320 ( ANOTHER might be right ) as an outside possibility,to be capped timewise Friday the 27th as a turning point.Time and trend will tell.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 22:34
Adrian (Clinton Invokes Excecutive Privilege) ID#254159:
http://www.abcnews.com/sections/us/DailyNews/clinton0321b.html

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 22:30
2BR02B? (@zeke) ID#266105:

Rascally devil aboard I see. Been a good twenty five
years since On the Beach probably, remember sports car
races among the survivors in Australia towards the end
days, the metaphorical eschatology completely eluded me.
Much like Animal Farm at young age. Maybe time for reread.
Funny how some weighty and recognized tomes vanish from
memory but some thin treatise stands one's time.

Hey, this made for TV Moby Dick is great. Cpt. Picard
as Ahab, some other 'names', Francis Ford Coppola production.



Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 22:06
Haggis__A (Give me ANOTHER break......................) ID#398105:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/alberta032098.html

I wonder if ANOTHER is Soros

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 22:01
Auric (Ted) ID#255151:

Yeah, it is getting uglier in Kosovo. Looks like neither side is interested in a compromise. The U.S. is gonna sucked into that mess. Either that or its another bloodbath. Europe and the EMU are looking absolutely impotent in dealing with the situation.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:57
zeke (Donald_A) ID#25255:
Sorry for the seeming non sequitur. The excellent book, ON THE BEACH, was written in the fifties about LAST THINGS. It was a kind of secular eschatology in which a few people survived WWIII inn an ark of steel ( nuclear sub ) and I seem to recall another small group were dug into a very deep shaft in Connecticut. Who knows, perhaps my Genkoba is failing me this late in the day. As to the Prophetic Gift, it is divinely given: to believers and to unbelievers. Just glance in the mirror.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:51
aurator (Ted) ID#250121:
LoL

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:47
SDRer__A (Profile--The Banking System were gold is welcome) ID#287280:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The concept of Islamic banking
1. The general impression that the removal of the element of interest from banking is enough to render a bank Islamic is only partially true as Islamic banking is much more than interest-free banking. Islamic banking is an instrument for the implementation of Islamic Economic Order.

The Islamic Economic Order strives to build a society based on social justice, equity, moderation and balanced relationships. It is a system embodying eternal values which safeguards the rights of men and women while constrantly reminding them of their obligations to themselves and the society.


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:46
Ted (Yugoslavia.......a potential(real) threat to Eqities) ID#330175:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/docs/news/19980321/GlobeFront/ukoson.html

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:39
Donald__A (Pssst. Hey gringo; quiere Vd. comprar la plata?) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980319/grupo_mexi_1.html

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:31
Ted (Aurator............................) ID#330175:
G'Day mate.....lvf~~~~~~~~

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:31
Auric (zeke) ID#255151:

The 50 cent pieces that are 40% Silver are
Kennedy half dollars. They are NOT scarce. I
can get them at any local coin shop. They are also available on the net. There are some Kitco folks here who could give you specifics. Hi yo Silver!

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:29
aurator () ID#250121:
-
A DB Bitter auric? What a beery world it is. Beautiful Jewel dranks the last Mac's Gold yesterday, a beautiful batch-brewed Lager from Nelson ( Northern tip of South Island ) I am hoping to introduce sweat to one when he calls in shortly.

Auric, the post you referred to has drawn a lot of attention, I am glad that many find it as inspiring as I do.



Studio-R, Ted, sam, henryD, Sdr-er, JTF, others who have both publically and privately thanked me for my post the other morning that sam rather neatly dubbed look around

While the words were mine they are derived from a Gosho ( letter ) written by a 13th Century Japanese sage, Nichiren Daishonin to his followers. Nichiren = Sun Lotus, Daishonin= Great Sage. Nichiren was exiled by the Japanese authorities on Sado, an inhospitable island and was forbidden to communicate with anyone. Nichiren achieved his enlightenment as the Buddha when he discovered the wisdom within the Lotus Sutra, the penultimate sutra taught by the historical Shakyamuni ( Guatama Siddharta ) Buddha of Northern India.

Nichiren's Gosho is entitled The one-eyed Turtle. After describing to his followers how rare it was to be born a human being, he continued with the story of the one-eyed turtle. Imagine, he said, in all the oceans of the world there was only one turtle. This turtle has only one eye. The turtle only comes up for breath once in one hundred thousand years. Imagine in all the oceans there was only one piece of floating sandalwood. What are the chances of the turtle coming up for breath just once and finding the piece of sandalwood and thus able to rest by climbing onto it? He said, this event was more likely than being born a human being and hearing of the Great Sage of the Lotus Sutra.


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:27
Michael (Silver production behind demand) ID#293379:
Copyright © 1998 Michael/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980319/silver_pro_2.html:

Silver production not meeting demand-Silver Inst.
NEW YORK, March 19 ( Reuters ) - Worldwide identifiable silver bullion
inventories have fallen sharply in the past six years, and rising silver
mine production projected for the next few years will still not be
sufficient to meet demand, said John Lutley, the chairman of the
Washington DC-based Silver Institute.
``But I think that miners should still be realistic about silver's
price, and think only in terms of $6.00 or $7.00 an ounce silver in the
next few years, as some demand will likely disappear at prices much
higher than that,'' Lutley told Reuters in an interview.

Spot silver rose to a nine-year high of $7.90 in early February, but
subsequently slipped back to around $5.90 by midday Thursday.

Overall total identifiable stocks of silver bullion worlwide, including
stocks held by COMEX, CBOT, TOCOM, European dealers and the Japanse
trade, fell by 540 million ounces from 1990 to 1996, Lutley said.

``This compares with the cumulative supply/demand gap for the same
period of 800 million ounces, suggesting that two-thirds of the gap has
been filled from a run-down of identifiable stocks, with the rest coming
from a decline in un-reported stocks held by private investors,'' he
said.

Silver consumption by the jewellery and silverware sectors increased 43
percent from 184 million ounces in 1990 to 263 million ounces in 1996,
he said.

Overall worldwide industrial demand for silver has shown substantial
growth, rising from 278 million ounces in 1990 to 293 million ounces
1996. Photographic demand, which rose from 222 million ounces in 1990 to
226 million ounces in 1996, is expected to grow by as much as seven
percent over the five-year period 1995-2000.

Meanwhile silver mine production is expected to rise from 515.9 million
ounces in 1997 to 571.7 million ounces by the turn of the century.

``It's true that the rise in silver prices in the past couple of years
may spur even more production of silver, but it still will not be enough
to close the supply/demand gap in the foreseeable future,'' Lutley said.

``It's also true that the sharp decline in COMEX silver stocks may be
attributable to silver moving to London to satisfy deliveries to Warren
Buffett's purchase, but overall silver inventories on both COMEX and
worldwide have been falling steadily for five years,'' he said.

U.S. billionaire Warren Buffett said on February 3 that his company,
Berkshire Hathaway ( BRKa.N ) had bought 128.7 million ounces of silver,
about 20 pct of annual silver mine supply and about 20 pct of estimated
worldwide silver inventories.

From the all-time high of 280.7 million ounces of silver in November
1992, COMEX silver stocks have fallen 81 pct to 53.7 million ounces as
of February 27, 1998, excluding the inventories, which were held by
Wilmington Trust which were added to the COMEX vault on January 1, 1997.

From Jan 1, 1997, to Feb 27, 1998, Wilmington Trust's silver inventories
dropped 36 pct from 56.5 million ounces to 36.4 million ounces at the
end of February 1998.

Until recently, COMEX depositaries included six bank vaults, five of
which were based in New York -- Chase Manhattan, Iron Mountain
Depositary, Republic National, Swiss Bank, Morgan Guarantee Trust, and
Wilmington Trust in Delaware.

But a move by Republic National to purchase the inventories of Chase
Manhattan, Swiss Bank, and Wilmington Trust has significantly
consolidated the depositary network.

``Some have attributed this consolidation to the decline in precious
metal inventories, while others cite Republic's large facilities and the
opportunity to bring in additional revenue at little extra cost,''
Lutley said.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:27
Donald__A (There are some pretty scarey numbers coming out of Japan and other comments) ID#26793:
http://www.sptimes.com:80/News2/32198/BUSINESS/Bull_market_charges_o.html

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:23
SDRer__A (Gold and Defacto Defaults--The East, our “Y”) ID#287280:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

When we turn our eyes to the East, we need to contemplate ( and that word is chosen with care ) a concept important there; it is “community”, asabiya in Arabic, danketsu in Japanese. One writer describes it as “social cohesion, solidarity, personal intimacy, emotional depth, moral commitment, continuity in time, a vision of man in his wholeness rather than in one or another of his roles.”

This is a concept of the Valuers. To Pricers, it seems vaguely subversive, certainly of no use whatsoever in the formulation of an algorithm. But it is a very real concept, and animates much of the world with which the West--for the most part--has lost touch.

When we discovered our dinar and dirham, did we understand the compelling asabiya, to say nothing of the religious, moral forces, that those coins represent? Are we viewing the same kind of change the Romans saw, and completely misjudged?

By 1988, Islamic banking was out of hiding. Banks were not exclusively in the Arab Middle East; “the Asia-Pacific region was not oblivious to the winds of change. The Philippine Amanah Bank ( PAB ) was established in 1973 by Presidential Decree...; Islamic banking made its debut in Malaysia in 1983; in the seventies there was a proliferation of interest-free savings and loan societies in India; the Islamic Banking System ( now called Islamic Finance House ) was established in Luxembourg in 1978; there is an Islamic Bank International in Copenhagen, Denmark; there is the Islamic Investment Company in Melbourne, Australia. When the newly minted dinar was introduced at Istanbul’s Blue Mosque in 1992, it had a banking system in place, ready to welcome it.








Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:22
ol'paint (jims - Baron's Article) ID#240316:
-
Other Voices -- Barron's Online

Monday, March 23, 1998

Gold Coffin?

On Wall Street, reports of death are often exaggerated

By Dennis Butler

In medicine the definition ofdeath is relatively straight-forward -- cessation of brain activity, loss

of heart function, etc., and the ultimate result is, of course,

indisputable. When death is pronounced on Wall Street, however, it is

usually a good idea to ask for a second opinion. What prompts us to bring

up this unpleasant subject is the talk heard in recent months about the

death of gold as an investable asset. We are now told that gold's only

friends are old-timers unable to abandon an old friend. As its price

approached levels last seen in 1979, everyone from central bankers to

speculators seemed to be beating a hasty retreat from the metal, and mutual

funds specializing in gold stocks began to close down. Nevertheless, we

seriously doubt that gold has come to the end of its millennia-long service

as a store of value and refuge from calamity.

Our skepticism stems from the fact that this is not the first time the

financial community has proclaimed the demise of an asset. As surprising as

it may seem today, it wasn't long ago when equities were considered a poor

place to put one's savings. In the late 1970s, for example, owning stocks

had proven to be a painful experience for the previous decade. In the

1968-1979 period, stocks returned only 3.1% a year, as reported back then

by Business Week in its celebrated cover article on The Death of

Equities. By way of comparison, single-family housing increased 9.6% in

value annually, diamonds 11.8%. Gold returned an astounding 19.4% a year

following its deregulation in 1971. With inflation running at an annual

rate of about 6.5%, it wasn't surprising that investors turned in growing

numbers to hard assets such as gold to protect their savings, as well as to

financial products -- including CDs and money-market mutual funds -- that

provided high current yields.

There seemed little prospect that stocks would ever again regain the

popularity they enjoyed in the 1950s and 1960s. During the 1970s the total

number of shareholders had fallen by seven million. The portion of

investors' money allocated to equities also declined. Pension funds that

had put 120% of new cash into stocks in the late 1960s ( by selling bond

holdings ) now put only 13% into the equity markets. Of total assets in

mutual funds ( $65 billion ) , $22 billion was in money-market funds. Stocks

made up less than 50% of fund holdings, down from more than 80% at one

time. Alternative equity investments were growing rapidly. The volume of

futures trading, for example, grew 36% from 1977 to 1978 alone. Trading in

options contracts grew to 57.2 million in 1979, from 1.1 million in

1973.

Wall Street, too, was abandoning equities; there was no money to be made

in selling and trading stocks. It turned to the burgeoning futures and

options markets; some firms even invested in businesses outside of

securities. In a view eerily reminiscent of the early 1930s, many investors

had concluded that stocks as a class represented speculation; the largest

returns achieved during the previous 10 years ( including those of safe

money-market funds ) seemed to have accrued to those taking few risks.

With the benefit of hindsight we know, of course, that equities were far

from being dead and were, in fact, extremely attractive investment vehicles

at that time. Remarkably, however, stock prices that averaged 60% of asset

replacement value provided no incentive to buy ( except for other

corporations, which had embarked on an unprecedented takeover binge ) . A few

observers, including Warren Buffett, did recognize the opportunity. But

they were truly the exceptions.

Almost two decades later, what a difference a bull market makes! Stocks

now are the asset of choice, necessary if investors are to meet their

retirement goals. Gold, now dead as a store of value and hedge against

inflation and calamity, provides no return and has no place in our

portfolios.

Let's examine the current situation logically. While the distribution of

assets in the financial system has significantly changed in 20 years, the

fact that more than three-quarters of the assets in long-term mutual funds

are now invested in stocks is indicative of the major shift toward the

equity markets that has occurred during the bull-market years. As a

consequence, stock prices have been bid up to the point where the average

equity yields less than 5% on earnings, versus the historical average of

7%-8% ( 13%-14% at market lows ) and high-grade bond yields of about 6.6%.

Other traditional valuation measures such as dividend yields and

price-to-book ratios also indicate that stocks are quite expensive. Gold,

on the other hand, now sells for $280-$300 an ounce, down from about $370 a

year ago, above $400 in 1996 and an all-time high of $875 in 1980. The

average world-wide total cost of producing the metal is about $315; cash

costs are about $257. At current prices, more than half of the world's

mines are unprofitable. As a result, lines are being shut and exploration

projects put on hold. Meanwhile, there is a gap between physical demand and

actual gold production amounting to as much as 1,000 tons a year.

Gold-company shares are similarly depressed. In fact, investors can now

purchase gold on Wall Street for less than the cash costs some companies

incur in producing the metal-including low-cost operators. Following the

same path that corporations took in the late 1970s, gold companies

themselves recognize the values that are available and a number of them are

studying acquisitions of other firms in the current depressed

environment.

On Wall Street it is generally wise to avoid doing what everyone else is

doing. We think it would be instructive for investors to challenge the

current consensus about equities and gold. The prospects of achieving

acceptable long-term results at the prices currently demanded for the

average equity would seem far from assured. Gold company stocks, in

contrast, offer a potentially fruitful area for investigation. Like life

insurance, which is cheapest when it is least likely to be needed,

insurance against inflation and financial distress -- gold -- can be

purchased now very cheaply because the consensus holds it is not

needed.

To be sure, purchasing gold ( an asset with few real uses ) in any form is

very different from purchasing equities representing businesses that

produce needed goods and services. Furthermore, volatile commodity prices

can remain depressed for distressingly long periods.

Even so, as sometimes happens on Wall Street, death is not necessarily a

permanent condition.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:21
WhisperingLow (Barron's -GOLD COFFIN? - By D.Butler) ID#235378:
To read this article supporting gold try URL
http://interactive.wsj.com/edition/current/summaries/barrons.htm

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:17
Donald__A (Updated Buffett silver use in batteries story) ID#26793:
http://nt.excite.com:80/news/r/980321/07/business-silver

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:15
Argent (US silver coin bag weights) ID#255217:
$1.00 face value US 90% silver coins ( dimes, qtrs., halves ) = 0.7234 oz. $1000.00 face value ( bag ) = 723.4 oz. ( unc. ) . Most dealers use 715 oz. per bag to compensate for weight loss due to wear ( circ. coins ) . This is an average figure and is debatable, IMHO. But go with 715 oz. and you will be close. Silver dollars are a different ball game entirely; none of the above applies.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:07
Auric (New Millennium Math) ID#255151:

Yep, make that 32 million one ounce coins.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:05
Donald__A (@Zeke) ID#26793:
You need to explain that one to me. It went right over my head. Wrong generation I guess.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 21:01
Auric (aurator ) ID#255151:

A toast and a shout-- Got a DB Bitter in my hand. Here's to ya and your fine post in the wee hours a couple a days ago.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:58
2BR02B? (@millenium coins/reality check) ID#266105:

Strikes me that a new issuance of coins by mining
concerns and consortiums would draw from existing
collector and hoarding interests in existing coinages.
Net-net, no biggie.

Off to watch Moby Dick for four hours on USA channel.
I enjoyed reading the classic some years back but found
it gravely disappointing. After Moby, what's left to read.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:55
General (to fundametalist) ID#365216:
you got the number wrong; it is 715 ounces per bag. I should know;
I own four bags. Problem is that they are being stored for me
by MONEX. Should I take delivery and risk them getting stolen from
my apartment or should I leave them with the MONEX repository
( paying $18 per month in fees plus not having direct control over
my stuff ) ?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:53
aurator () ID#250121:
see what I mean?
sorry auric for casting nasturtiums at your maths.

Citizen Ted
G'day mate.

working up a millenium ounce story..

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:51
fundaMETAList (zeke: Called my bluff, did you...) ID#341214:
Actually, I was just going to use it for a doorstop. What do they go for these days?

I am into silver coins but just the 90% pre-1965 stuff for now. Here's an interesting note. A bag of $1000 face value will cost you $4330.00 at AJPM. Now, if I recall my numbers correctly there are about 775 ozs of silver in that bag. The same 775 ozs in rounds at Friday's spot ( I used 6.11 from the AJPM site ) would cost you 4735.25 not including the premium on the rounds. That's quite a difference. Either I have the 775 number wrong or junk silver is a great deal right now.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:51
jims (Bullish consensus fiqures) ID#252391:
Noticed the bullish consensus on oil is 4 out of 100. Perhaps with modern communications the word gets around. You have to think that may be about as bearish as it can get. Gold was like 38 bullish, silver 50% and S&P was 68% bullish.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:49
aurator () ID#250121:
Auric
wrong order of magnitude, easy to do
1000 tonnes =
32,150,742 Millenium Ounces

THere's a new measurement, a millenium ounce.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:47
jims (Baron's Article) ID#252391:
Anybody have a recap of the Baron's article. Can't get through the sign in / password page. I suppose it's another one of these gold is dead articles?
Gosh based on the cyclist work a little earlier seems gold may be headed for the cellar lead by the stocks!

Any help on the Barons artlcie would be apprceciated.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:47
Ted (Mike Sheller(19:19)) ID#330175:
ditto

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:43
SDRer__A (Strecthed rubber bands...) ID#286250:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
OIL PRICE COLLAPSE THREATENS RUSSIAN ECONOMY

The collapsing world oil price has forced Russia's biggest oil company to cut output and is steadily increasing the pressure on the government's
creaking finances.....Yevgeny Khartukov, general director of the International Centre for Petroleum Business Studies in Moscow said it was too early to panic but warned that, if sustained, lower international oil prices would inevitably hit domestic prices. For the moment no-one wants
to accept reality and everyone is hiding themselves in the bushes. But the internal market will eventually work even if they do not like how it works, he said.

Got to get back to my currencies, which seem almost tame in comparison!
bbl

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:39
Auric (1000 Tons of Y2K Commemorative Coins) ID#255151:

One thousand tonnes of Gold is about 32,000 one ounce coins. If you REALLY want to boost the price of Gold, put a guaranteed face value of $325 on each Millennium Coin.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:37
SDRer__A (Interesting to look back at the birth of OPEC--) ID#286250:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Interesting to look back at the birth of OPEC--

a birth 'mid-wifed by a price cut taken by the Oil Companies
without consultation of/with the Oil Producers.

“With the Odd Couple as militant hosts, five nations--Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Venezuela--met in Baghdad and declared the birth of Opec, “a cartel to confront the cartel,” said one delegate.

That was considered so important by the press of the world that it was barely reported at all. [Well, some things don’t change! SDRer]

For the great event of September 9, Reuters mustered up a dispatch on September 24. The New York Times published a back-page squib on September 25.”
A. Smith, “Paper Money”

COMMENT: Thank you God, for Donald...{:- ) ) )

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:29
zeke (Fundie-The Bag) ID#25255:
It's so refreshing to find someone who is buying Morgans these days. Seeems everybody I meet is selling them. How much do these gems barter for during these days of high finance?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:28
chas (Pete, great work) ID#342282:
Copyright © 1998 chas/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
In essence, it looks like to me that what cofidence has been for USD was really strong arming by Fed, Tsy, State Dpt, IMF etc. I see this confidence now underground and flagging. Oil producers and gold producers can't be dumb enough to put up with these tactics any longer. Inflation is here, barely out of ground. With the quantity of dollars floating by anybody's estimate, and with the presses smoking, I don't know what else to call it. Another is, to me, talking about either the biggest rubber band stretched to the limit or the widest flying boomerang ever known. Great posts today. Thanx all

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:27
aurator (At the tone it will be 13:30 NZ Std Time) ID#250121:
Auric
You forgot the end of daylight saving last weekend, we put the clocks back an hour. I get very confused during this shifting of daylight saving when calibrating other time zones too.


CJS/Anyone?
can someone please post GMT, I gotta phone London today and I'll not be popular if I stuff up the calculation.

And A Happy Vernal Equinox to all you Northern Hemispherics



Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:27
Jeil (Cyclist) ID#253228:
Copyright © 1998 Jeil/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I have similar cyclical projections. Sharp, very deep drop in gold shares ending 3rd week in May, but most of the drop between next week and April 20. First rally with a top in Aug, 98, pullback and then second top in Dec. 98 followed by another severe drop into Feb 99. Then a real rally consistent with the gold bug view of the world. As to the consistent bullish view of gold bugs, I am reminded of the Simon and Garfunkle lyric, Still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.
I think the S&P 500 will make a spectacular blow off top into mid summer, followed by a drop to below the level of today.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:23
fundaMETAList (zeke: The Bag) ID#341214:
zeke: It is with great sadness that I have to report, yes, you have wasted the bag and probably also dropped the bag, but hopefully not on your foot. However, there is a silver lining. I'll be glad to take the bag off your hands or your foot, if that is, indeed, where you dropped it.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:21
zeke (Auric) ID#25255:
How much and where? This sounds better than Morgans in the short haul.
What a stocking stuffer for the kids next December! Thanks in advance.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:19
TYoung (Dumb?) ID#317193:
PLEASE do not respond. I've read the posts today of Another and those of us detailing their thoughts regarding his/her ( political correctness again ) posts. I must have missed something. I did not find Another's posts to provide any, and I mean any, new or even interesting information. I must be dumb. Maybe I am lucky and just not dumb but dumber. Guess it's time to buy more derivatives and default to start the crisis going. Anybody got any good jokes? Clean ones that is, we may be being watched. Tom

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:17
Auric (zeke 19:50) ID#255151:

Have you checked out the U.S. 50 cent pieces that are 40% silver? I'll try to find the numbers, but I believe that the downside protection for each coin is Silver at about $3.25 ( honest ) . At that level, the face value of the coin is worth more than its Silver content. It is legal tender and recognized just about everywhere. Also, it is one of the cheapest ways that I know of to get a hold of physical Silver.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:14
fundaMETAList (The Hermit: Y2K) ID#341214:
Copyright © 1998 fundaMETAList/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The Hermit: Thank you for the kind words. There are a lot of intelligent people here that can converse on the subject.

I agree with your comment from the other day that Y2K is certainly related to PM's and that is one of the reasons why I continue to post here on the subject. If I manage to convince a few of the people at this site to take a closer look at the subject then my effort has been rewarded. Based on what I know about the software development process and the general level of attention paid to this subject over the past few years ( way too little! ) I would say we are in deep doo-doo. People need to realize this and take some active steps on their behalf. Of course, I don't expect them to take these steps based on what I say but if I can get an inquiring mind going in the right direction they have a chance of coming to the same conclusions I did.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:04
General (thanks lurker 777) ID#365216:
Thanks for your response Lurker. I especially like your recommendation
for food and water supplies. I am currently loading up on .223 rifle
ammo and .45/9mm ammo for my various guns. I think ammo should make
a good barter tool if you need something else a little bit more and
you have plenty to begin with ( like you : ) ) . I think you should get
some silver though for those smaller barter situations.

Thanks again, and happy hunting.

Dismissed.

The General

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 20:01
zeke (Donald_A) ID#25255:
Your Prophet Motivational Gift is sailing full colors. Wasn't Connecticut the final Hole in 'On The Beach'by N. S.?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 19:58
SDRer__A (What is the “policy” that tacitly condones this? ) ID#286249:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
This is devastating! From this weeks Der Spiegel

Jets in the desert
Late consequences of the Gulf War: On the battlegrounds of 1991 Remarkably many children get sick with cancer.

At the bed of the dying child in the el-Mansur-hospital of Baghdad only the desperate mother is awake. Latif Abd el-Sattar, five, also it completely bald, would have a good chance of survival say the physicians, if the necessary medicines were available. Marwa Adil, ten, suffers from leukemia, but the hospital does not even have point ion needles for necessary back Mark tests. The physicians asked Marwas father, he was to try nevertheless, to procure who. Only where?
http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/index.html

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 19:57
elf (CJS reference was to this story earlier. ) ID#33180:
Apologies for the millenium coin repeat. I missed yours.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 19:51
elf (Gold Millenium coin planned, to boost gold consumption) ID#33180:
Copyright © 1998 elf/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Saturday March 21, 4:34 pm Eastern Time

Major gold companies mull global millennium coin

LONDON, March 21 ( Reuters ) - The world's biggest gold mining companies are planning to produce a millennium coin that could absorb more than 1,000 tonnes of gold, Britain's Sunday Telegraph newspaper said. The project is being led by Canada's Barrick Gold ( ABX.TO - news ) but would be coordinated from the London headquarters of Swiss Bank Corporation, the Telegraph said.The companies hope that the planned coin would mop up surplus gold supplies and lift the gold market out of the doldrums.The Telegraph said the prices for different-sized coins would be linked to the prevailing gold price. The most popular size was expected to be the one-ounce coin, which atcurrent values would cost around 200 pounds.Other companies said to be involved in the project include Anglo American Corp ( AMSJ.J ) of South Africa, Newmont ( NGC - news ) and Placer Dome ( PDG.TO - news ) .

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 19:50
zeke (Lurker@Boeing777) ID#25255:
Wouldn't small silver pieces be of value in bartering? What gold piece could be negotiated for a dozen eqqs or a pound of salt? This has caused me some bother with physical PM horders. My stache of Morgans have been kept for this sole purpose. Have I wasted the bag?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 19:37
Auric (and Go Gold) ID#255151:

For those who live in Indy-- 13:30 = 1:30 PM

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 19:36
Donald__A (Oil Consumption) ID#26793:
Copyright © 1998 Donald__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I am certainly not an oil expert or an expert anything for that matter. But, common sense tells me that Asia and the old Soviet bloc has set the hard times example that is to continue to sweep around the world until all are engulfed. Unemployment will rise to 25% or more. Two car families will be one car or none. The heat will be turned down in Winter. Factories will close and/or go part-time. A large percentage of a shrinking family income will be spent on necessities. Families will double up. Oil consumption will plunge and stay down for years. Domestic oil producers will lobby for protection and probably get it to some extent.

Here in Connecticut during the oil shortage of the early 70's the air was full of wood smoke all winter. People bought cast iron woodstoves and small cars. Van pooling started and continues even now. I installed 2 solar hot water panels. My house has 6 inch studding and insulation in the walls. The roof has 12 inches. All the glass is double. We are ready, so are most.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 19:34
Auric (BIG TIMES) ID#255151:

Can't remember who posted the link on time zones, but thanks. I believe the local time in Aukland NZ is 13:30. In Canberra it is 11:30 AM. Is that right?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 19:24
elf (Cyclist: Thanks for reply. What pattern/method do you use? Mike Sheller: ) ID#33180:
Didn't Mike say something about April 21-23 allowing a Mars jolt to affect the Venus gold signifier, or that a bottom would occur then if there had been a decline leading into that period?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 19:19
Mike Sheller (Kitco ACCOLADES) ID#347447:
I have just gone thru a Kitco Katch up from around noon to NOW. I have to say, simply, emotionally, unequivocably, that this forum, its people ( even YOU LGB ) and its focus, is just the most incredible most wonderful thing in cyberspace. Today's postings should be put in a freakin' time capsule. Kitcoites...I am in AWE of you. I toast you ALL! This is ONE SPECIAL FORUM!!!!!!

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:52
Isure (Kitco is going big time) ID#368244:

Check out Kitcos classifieds, 80 millon dollar diamonds for sale, ads to purchase gold 100 mt at a time. Gee ! Bart I feel important just being around here.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:51
SDRer__A (Mr. Another) ID#288155:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

First, may I thank for your posts, which I read with interest and attention; secondly, may I add my “Welcome” to our little band of outcasts who believe in truth and honest money.

Your last post, I must admit, has me much confused. You speak, to my ears, as if oil were a new product, a new industry, and market share had yet to be gained!

It seems to me, as I look about, that oil is lapped up by world consumers as dogs greedily lap-up water after a long run in the woods. We do not consume oil as the frugal camel. We are profligate!

And now, world experts tell us that oil production will soon peak, and that the line of production with cross the line of consumption, and the cost must rise.

Perhaps you refer to a price that is sufficiently high to compel conservation on the part of the consumer? Thus restricting sales of the producers?

But would this not allow the producers to produce at a moderate level over a longer period of time? What am I not considering? Thank you.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:51
Schippi (Fidelity Select Gold Charts) ID#93199:
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:32
Jack (Golden Cheesehead) ID#252127:

Thank you for your insights.
If I were a US Treasury, or Bank of Canada employee checking out the mines I would find reason to keep far away from them.
They would need swat teams at the mines and the industry would degenerate to the level of that in the Soviet Union.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:31
CJS (1000 Tonnes) ID#329157:
1000 Tonnes of millennium coins sold to the public should send a better message saying bring the price of gold up than a measly few hundred tonnes distributed between a few central banks. Hopefully they will get the mints producing soon and do a good marketing job so that maybe more than the expected 1000 Tonnes might get sold. Incidentally, UK newspaper ads currently for US Silver Eagles selling at 10 GB pounds, based on Buffett story. That's a lot above spot.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:27
Cyclist (elf ,15:50) ID#339274:
My projections are a low April 20 until a high August 23 '98 for
both markets goldstocks and S&P.Goldstocks and S&P will
both hit the skids except physical gold after that.Gold stocks will
bottom when E/Ps are in the order between 5 and 7,sometimes
in February '99.This is my opinion only ,of course.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:27
SDRer__A (WRI studies, and others, say that oil production will PEAK circa 2000 & prices RISE) ID#28593:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Two international experts cited by MacKenzie, Jean Laherrere and Colin Campbell, both of Petroconsultants, Geneva, Switzer- land, believe peak oil production will occur even earlier - four years from now
in 2000, followed by an annual decline of about 2.7% In turn, this will mean that world oil prices will rise from their present low levels, though by how much and how fast remains uncertain, MacKenzie said in his testimony.
http://www.crest.org/renewables/thl/april96-oil.html




Transportation W

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:26
Lurker 777 (General Sir!) ID#317247:
FIREARMS 1 simi auto rifle 2500 rounds & 1 small 9mm pocket gun with 1000 rounds HP
SURVIVAL ITEMS 1 year supply food, Gas masks & Water
GOLD 100% of what is left over.
SILVER 0%
PLATINUM 0%

Check out this site:
http://www.tex-is.net/users/csbrocato/Menu.htm#Total%20Collapse

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:23
Auric (SDRer_A) ID#255151:

Interesting history lesson. If I am not mistaken, the U.S. had an oil import fee of $5.00/barrel during the 50's and 60's. When was this discontinued?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:23
Hedgehog (Good news story) ID#39845:
1000 tonnes of millenium coins. You bloody beauty.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:18
robnoel__A (Just saw Robert Rubin on Evans&Novak,he said everything is great ,said he could not comment on the ) ID#411112:
Fed or the market,and the head of the IMF is not a commie pinko bas***,according to Trent Lott earlier this week,asked about taxes he thinks Americans could pay more,we are in good economic times he said................so you guys need another reason to buy gold

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:16
SDRer__A (Backgrounder--something, somewhere is not computing...) ID#28593:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
OPEC the ‘brainchild’ of a Venezuelan lawyer ( who also happened to be Venezuela’s Oil Minister ) who admired the Texas Railroad Commission’s ability to control the price of oil in the US--

April 16, 1959, Abdullah Tariki [Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Supreme ) was introduced to Juan Pablo Perez Alfonso.

Juan Pablo Perez Alfonso began to detail his plan for a worldwide Texas Railroad Commission. Conserve and cut back, unite and control. I f you want more money, do not sell more oil; sell less.

“Abdullah Tariki listened intently. And went out to preach the plan to the Iraqis and the Kuwaitis and the Bahrain’s and all the other tribes with oil. These tribes were more used to quarreling than cooperating, and they were used to calling up the awesome oil companies as one would a parent. Tariki spoke to them, with conviction and passion. Juan Pablo Perez Alfonso went to speak with the Shah of Iran and the Russians. They were called by amused and disbelieving observers, the “Odd Couple”.


In August 1959 Fortune magazine noticed the preaching of the “Odd Couple”. Its tone was one of amusement and skepticism, its point of view, as usual, that of big business. To read it is to enter an astonishing time warp.

The problem, Fortune said, is the Glut. Too much oil. Furthermore, said Fortune, “ the glut is certain to last a long time.” The reason: “too much oil underground too easy to get at, ready to flow at very little additional expense.” The ratio of reserves to consumption had formerly been 20 to 1; that is, for every barrel shipped there were twenty barrels underground. Now it was forty to one; in the Middle East it was one hundred to one. Even if nobody ever drilled another well, there was so much oil that the ratio of reserves to consumption wouldn’t go back to twenty to one for another decade.

The proposition, baldly stated, is that the great oil-producing countries outside the US should get together to limit production and maintain prices. The rationale of this proposal is clear enough. Crude oil prices outside the US have been falling like overripe fruit. Inside the US, however, prices have been holding relatively high and steady because the mighty Texas Railroad Commission supported by other state and federal bodies, in effect adjusts the supply of US oil to the market...An international Texas Railroad Commission could keep crude oil production in line with demand, allocate production equitably among producing countries and companies, and so maintain prices at or close to the elegant level maintained in the US.Taking everything together, Fortune said, the proposal of Messrs. Perez Alfonso and Tariki is not only impractical but bad economics. What Fortune proposed was that the United States import MORE oil. That would take the pressure off world prices, and they could find a more realistic level.

Fortune may have been in a time warp, but its suggestion, in 1959, to import oil made some sense. The dollar was strong, oil could have been imported at less than $1.80 a barrel, the world market might have been helped, and a finite ressoure might have been prserved.
A.Smith, Paper Money


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:15
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (Gold Shares) ID#431263:
Herr Jack--You're right! I DO like NON-NORTH AMERICAN GOLD MINES, i.e. profitable mines located in safe regions of the world OUTSIDE OF THE US AND CANADA! Why foreign mines? I believe that when ANOTHER'S THOUGHTS become REALITY, ALL NORTH AMERICAN MINES WILL BE NATIONALIZED BY THE FED AND THEIR PRODUCTION SEIZED AT A FIXED PRICE THUS LIMITING ANY POTENTIAL APPRECIATION IN PRICE!! My personal AND ONLY GOLD MINING CHOICE IS LIHIR and VENGOLD!! Ultimately, however, it is my belief that ONLY PHYSICAL GOLD will pay the wolf at the door!

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:14
Donald__A (@WSF) ID#26793:
Glad to see you are back with us.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:13
The Hermit (@ fundaMETAList - your 15:24) ID#369247:
Your comparison of the key components in a building to the key components in our business & society structures is most suitable. As Allen stated in his earlier post, the keys in our systems, POWER, TELECOM and BANKING are all at risk. I believe if just one goes ( like in a building ) the entire structure is at risk. Y2k is a serious problem - we should be concerned. Thank you for informing us. I do appreciate your efforts.


Sincerely,


The Hermit

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:10
OLD GOLD (Misc.) ID#238295:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
James: The current governments of the oil producing states are indeed US puppets. But this will not always be so. And when the tide shifts, gold probably will play a much bigger role in their monetary affairs. There apparently are many in the Moslem world who would like to move in this direction.

Ray: Thanks for that Barron's article. Tine to buy indeed!

Frankly, I have given up trying to predict the exact date that the gold bull will begin. But with bullion reacting much better to news, the bear has been replaced by a bottoming process. In short -- downside risk is quite limited. Under these conditions ( and not being a futures trader ) I am willing to wait patiently for the long awaited bull to get underway.

Another: Do you have any comments regarding Louis Farrakhan's advice to Moslem states to back their currencies with gold?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:10
Donald__A (Arab oil interests are worried about the implications of the Asian Currency Crisis) ID#26793:
http://www.awo.net/

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:10
Knight (( Metalsplay & Others---Re: Allegheny Mines Corp.)) ID#271383:
-

To play the 'what if' game,we can use the July 8, 1997 and July 15,1997 news releases as examles. The second paragraph of the July release explains how the Company would receive about $ 27.25US per ton of base material.

From statements made in other paragraphs of the release, it would not be hard to envision a half million tons of base material. This would have produced $13,625,000.00 ( based on July 8, 1997 metal prices ) . One million tons of base material would have produced $27,250,000.00. ( 1997 )

In order to redo the calculations, I would require Friday March 20, 1998

closing prices for GOLD, SILVER, COPPER, COBALT and ZINC.

Six news releases can be found at www.stockhouse.com

Knight


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:03
Jack (Golden Cheesehead) ID#252127:

I believe you like the gold shares also, Another's scenario seems to preclude all paper -and I conclude -and he has warned against- the gold shares.
My thinking is only the healthy miners will survive the potential ravaging by the bankers and their enviromentalists sidekicks.
I think that a surviving miner will have to have both clean books and a clean mine.
That said, I believe that governments would encourage miners when they really need gold in their ( governmental ) reserves, but that they would tax heavily. All the above -in my opinion of only.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:02
CJS (Something interesting!) ID#329157:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980321/millennium_2.html
Millennium coin to lift gold out of doldrums with 1000 tonnes sold!

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:02
JP (Another, Oil and Gold) ID#253153:
Another , you make sense telling us that the oil producing countries may make physical purchases of Gold on the open market to raise prices to the $320-360 level. The Arabs have always liked Gold. However, with large US forces close to Saudi Arabia ( on alert against Iraq } , do you think that Saudi's will create problems for the US dollar ?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:01
Donald__A (Oil Prices and Exchange Rates (book review) ID#26793:
http://econwpa.wustl.edu/eprints/test/papers/9509/9509002.abs

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:00
General (asset allocation) ID#365216:
I would be interested to hear your recommendations for asset allocation
in percentage of available purchase funds for:

GOLD
SILVER
PLATINUM
FIREARMS
SURVIVAL ITEMS

Thank you
That is all.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 18:00
OLD GOLD (Viva Italia) ID#238295:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Good news from Italy. Andy Smith about to bite the dust?

BoI's Fazio sees large role for gold in ECB
02:06 p.m Mar 21, 1998 Eastern
YORK, England, March 21 ( Reuters ) - Bank of Italy Governor Antonio Fazio
said on Saturday that gold's share in the reserves of the European
Central Bank could be the same or higher than its role in Italian
reserves.

''A part of the ( ECB ) reserves will be in gold,'' Fazio said. ''This
share could be in proportion or even a little bit higher than in our
( reserves ) .''

Italy is one of the largest official holders of gold in the European
Union. Gold presently accounts for around 30 percent of its reserves.

Fazio was speaking at the end of a two-day meeting of European Union
finance ministers and central bankers in this northern English town.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 17:59
OURO__A (Scary!) ID#237149:
Copyright © 1998 OURO__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
LOOK AT MY POST ON KITCO FROM 03/09:

Date: Mon Mar 09 1998 21:24
OURO__A ( WB's Silver back to COMEX? ) ID#237149:
Some of my sources indicated to me that some of WB's silver has been sold out at the $7.00 range and that it could be flowing back into COMEX ( at least some of it ) . Isn't WB a long termplayer? What's going on? My concern is that this may bring the price of silver back further down...anyone knows anything about WBs sale of silver?

THIS CAME OUT THRU WIRE ON 3/19:

NEW YORK, March 19 ( Reuters ) - COMEX silver futures prices slid further Thursday morning to new four week lows, but were off the session's worst levels by midday, while the rest of the COMEX and NYMEX precious metals complex remained higher.

``There are unconfirmed rumors Warren Buffett may be selling some silver, as silver is probably now back below his average buying price, but it wouldn't be his style, and most selling still looks like fund long
liquidation,'' one commission house analyst said.



It's scary how easy it is to condition the market. 1 small little post that traveled fast and far. I was just tired of hearing about WB..

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 17:48
The Hermit (@ ANOTHER, Allen, Donald, Pete) ID#369247:
Thank you ANOTHER for sharing your THOUGHTS at Kitco.

ANOTHER and Allen ( USA ) , it is a most interesting discussion, thank you and please continue. Allen, I do appreciate your insight!

Donald and Pete, thank you for your analysis and efforts, it is most helpful and appreciated.

A very interesting day at Kitco! The search for the TRUTH is stimulating.

Very Respectfully,

The Hermit


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 17:29
CJS (Pete Mar 21 16:29) ID#329157:
Copyright © 1998 CJS/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Pete: A most interesting analysis.

Question
Where in the world is it bedtime?
http://www.halyava.ru/tunguska/worldtm.htm
You might find this useful to determine when Kitco posters are likely to be around. In the Middle East, for example, it would be around midnight or later and Kitco posters there may well have gone away for the night...

There are two schools of thought with respect to pricing.
One is, perhaps, more common than the other; and that is
set the price as high as the customer will bear. The
logic being, we will collect as much money as possible
from the customer per unit. Competitors
who price downwards to take market share limit this.
The other school of thought is set the price low, that will
make the product accessible to the most people and this will
stimulate demand. This approach was illustrated most
powerfully in the 19th century by the move to cut the price
of British postage stamps aggressively, which opened up the
business to the public at large, but curiously still kept the
money flowing to support the business. Is this what we see
here with oil- the price falling, while consumers of oil
continue to be kept dependent on a steady flow of oil and its
derivatives, thus maintaining the market. If the price of oil should
rise dramatically, industries would be forced to make economies in
the efficiency and scale of oil use and the market would shrink. The oil countries would not necessarily see much greater profit, but their oil would last longer. The oil states must surely be concerned at the current low price and what that means for the long-term view, with pumps going at full throttle, the oil is going to get used up much faster.
But in a world where many countries supply oil, for example Venezuela
which competes with OPEC countries, the setting of a high price for oil
will not work since market competition acts to depress the price
while inventories in oil refineries mount up. It is therefore in
the interest of countries with a principal product whose supply is limited to what is left in the ground, to obtain real tangible wealth to augment the low price. Which leads us to the gold-for-oil agreement. And here, a low gold price means more gold is obtained per gallon of oil, so when the time comes for gold's price to rise, the oil trade will also be affected, since the oil-for-gold countries will want to maintain the flow of gold, the price of oil in dollars must rise. This, Another
has already told us. Gold has been bouncing along the bottom for a while now- this can not continue. Either the downward momentum will continue ( which will not be allowed by the BIS, because they would become bankrupt ) or the price will go up. This is most likely to happen after a breakdown in investor confidence in the stock markets; a mania blow-off run-up appears to be developing now. If substantial crashes occur in April ( after the Japanese big bang ) and as the weight of profit warnings accumulates ( the FTSE and NASDAQ ended down last week, in divergence from the DOW which powered up through a century mark ) , investor interest in commodity assets would be stimulated, with the POG starting to rise soon afterwards. Will they sell in May and go away or will that be too late?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 17:27
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (SORRY ALLEN, I MEANT TO CREDIT PETE!!!!!) ID#431263:
THANKS PETE!!!

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 17:23
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (Great Detective Work, Allen!!!) ID#431263:
Copyright © 1998 GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Way to go, mein Herr! I, too, believe ANOTHER is on the level and trying to save the goldbugs here on Kitco and other lurkers from the massive financial dislocations, defaults and bankruptcies soon to overwhelm the CB's in the West! Gold will be re-priced under such a scenario and ONLY ONCE, as ANOTHER believes! From that moment on--PHYSICAL GOLD WILL CEASE TRADING ON THE OPEN MARKET PERMANENTLY!!! Them's that got the gold IN THEIR PERSONAL POSSESSION WILL RULE THOSE WHO DON'T, OR WHO ONLY HOLD NOW WORTHLESS PAPER GOLD!! Bottom Line--TRUE GOLDBUGS WITH PHYSICAL GOLD IN THEIR POSSESSION NEED ONLY SIT ON IT AND WAIT FOR THE INEVITABLE DECLARATION OF US PAPER DOLLAR BANKRUPTCY!!! For the gold speculators and paper worshippers--IT WILL BE TOO LATE!!! LISTEN TO ANOTHER'S WARNING NOW OR SPEND THE REST OF YOUR LIFE WISHING THAT YOU HAD!!!

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 17:14
Silverbaron (Pete @ ANOTHER) ID#288295:
Pete - thanks for the commentary. Although I am still agnostic about ( but interested in ) the gold-for-oil story.... it is probably worth noting that if it is true, the price of ( paper ) gold could bear no more relation to the price of ( real ) gold, than the Price of a share of Bre-X does..... Something for the technical and Elliott Wave analysts to think about, when forecasting gold into the future.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 17:09
SDRer__A (Allen(USA), All--from the Birnbaum Report to Joint Economic Committee, US Senate) ID#28593:
Dollar Instability and World Economic Growth
footnote 16:
I was told about this** personally by Abdel-Rahman Khene, the then-Secretary General of OPEC, on the occasion of international meetings of experts in which we both participated ( in Geneva, Switzerland ) .

Indeed, I'll never forget his remarking to me that OPEC itself was amazed its outrageous price hikes had actually stuck. OPEC gained an important lesson that was to serve its interests well for nearly a decade.

**that the resulting high price of oil was an unintended consdquence

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 17:02
Jack (Pete) ID#252127:

Pete real clear breakdown of Another's post. I like Another cause he tries to make us think things out, never tells us how great he is.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 16:40
SDRer__A (PM Rongji has hit the ground running!) ID#288155:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

China moves to commercialise housing sector
Tough living: Low cost housing is still beyond the reach of many.

BEIJING: China will invest 41.9 billion yuan ( US$5.05 billion ) in state funds in the first instalment this year of a scheme to build low-cost housing, the China Securities newspaper said on Friday.

The investment would include 15.3 billion yuan in bank loans, it said. The State Development Planning Commission and the
People's Bank of China have jointly issued a circular saying the scope and scale of the three-year-old ``comfortable home''
project would be expanded this year, the newspaper said.

Premier Zhu Rongji said on Thursday China would scrap welfare-style free allocation of houses in the second half of this year, paving the way for commercialisation of the housing system

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 16:35
Donald__A (Interesting site on market psychology) ID#26793:
http://marketscience.com/

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 16:29
Pete (ALL, DISSECTION OF ANOTHERS THOUGHTS.) ID#222231:
Copyright © 1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
THESE ARE MY REMARKS TO VARIOUS PARAGRAPHS OF WHAT I CONSIDER ANOTHERS MOST IMPORTANT AND REVEALING POSTS. PLEASE TAKE AN OPEN MINDED VIEW THAT ANOTHER MAY BE AN ANGEL IN DISGUISE FOR GOLDBUGS. WHY WOULD HE TRY TO HELP US? I SINCERELY BELIEVE THAT ANOTHER HAS RESPECT FOR PEOPLE THAT RECOGNISE THE TRUTH IN AN HONEST CURRENCY THAT IS CONVERTIBLE TO GOLD, NAMELY GOLDBUGS. OF COURSE, THE FINAL DECISSION TO ACCEPT OR REJECT HIS KNOWLEDGE IS UP TO EACH AND EVERYONES FREE WILL.

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 13:08
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
Copyright © 1998 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The Management of Gold, A Simple Tool for the 90s

For any currency to maintain a “reserve” status, it must be, in some
fashion, convertible into gold! In the past, the US$ was freely exchanged
for a “fixed” amount of gold. $20 dollars was equal to one ounce. If the
country wanted to make it’s money stronger, it would lower the amount of
currency units fixed to one ounce. $10 dollars per ounce made the
currency more valuable in the market and it would buy more things. Also,
a country could decrease the value of it’s currency by raising the number
of units to the ounce of gold, say $40. The problem with the “fixed” gold
system is found in matching the amount of gold in the treasury to the
“fix”! To make the money stronger, one had to bring in gold, as it took
twice as many ounces to back a currency “in circulation” at $10 as it did
at $20! The reverse is true when lowering the money value to $40. Then,
one half the treasury gold backing had to be removed as only half was
now needed to back the dollar.

REMARKS: THIS IS HOW A RESERVE CURRENCY SHOULD BE BACKED BY GOLD, OR HOW THE OIL PRODUCERS PERCIEVE THE TRUE VALUE OF A CURRENCY. A TRUE GOLD/CURRENCY CONVERTIBILITY. STABILITY OF $US IN TERMS OF GOLD ORICE.

You have probably not read this “slant” on the past gold standard because
it was never quoted in quite that way, nor looked at in that fashion. If you allow your mind to perceive the above, one will clearly see that it was gold that gave the currency value. In that time one did not look to see how many dollars gold was valued with, rather, how much gold was bid for each unit in circulation!

Today, the world reserve currency is not on a “fixed” gold standard, it is on a “freely convertible” gold standard. One may, anywhere in the world, convert US$s into gold. This new “freely convertible” standard does still allow the dollar to be backed by gold for those who still demand a gold “fixing”. That requirement is enforced by a certain commodity, oil. Yet, there is a price for the benefit of having all oil sales settled in US$. Yes, even in this modern era, for the US$ to remain on an “oil standard” it must be on some form of “gold standard”! Regain the perception in the top paragraph. Then understand that for oil to back the dollar, the dollar must find value in gold. And the dollar finds more value if it is fixed by the “freely convertible” gold standard, to buy more gold!

REMARKS: IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A TRUE STABILITY BETWEEN THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THE PRICE OF OIL. THE OIL PRODUCERS WOULD ACCEPT A REASONABLE CONVERTIBILITY WITHIN CERTAIN PARAMETERS THAT REFLECTS THIER VIEW OF A REAL VALUE IN THE EXCHANGE OF OIL FOR GOLD.

This convertible gold market is old from the mid 70s but is new from the
early 90s. It is old by the 70s because it is “freely convertible”, but it is new by the 90s as it “is not” “freely tradable”! The US$ price of physical gold is no longer “fixed” from supply and demand, rather it is “created” through the market action of “paper gold”. Truly, it is the US$ has become the “item traded” in the “paper gold” market, not physical gold. Participants have yet to realize that the gold futures, gold options and gold forward markets, worldwide, have become little more than currency trading arenas. The percentage of gold delivered against these markets has grown so small as to be nonexistence when compared to actual metal settled at closing. Physical gold does still move, and in size, but this is little or nothing compared to the “paper gold” traded.

REMARKS: IN THE 70'S, THE PRICE OF GOLD WAS CONVERTIBLE IN $US IN THE OPEN MARKET ( CONVERTIBILITY ) UNTIL DEBASEMENT OF THE $US CAUSED THE OIL PRODUCERS TO RAISE THE PRICE OF OIL. THEY FELT THAT IN ORDER TO GET TRUE VALUE FOR THIER COMMODITY, A RISE IN OIL PRICES WAS NEEDED TO GET A TRUE CONVERTIBILTY TO GOLD. THIS ACTION ROILED THE MARKETS FOR THE PRICE OF OIL AND FOR GOLD. IN ORDER FOR THE PRICE OF OIL TO LOWER, THE PRICE OF GOLD HAD TO BE LOWERED A SUFFICIENT AMNT THAT WOULD BE ACCEPTABLE TO THE OIL PRODUCERS. BY THE 90'S, THE OPEN MARKET DID NOT WORK ANYMORE. A POLICY WAS NEEDED TO DEPRESS THE PRICE OF GOLD.

We are brought to this point for a purpose, but how did we get here? The
largestproducers of gold were introduced to the use of large scale
“forward contracts” by the Bullion Banks. Once the process started, good
business required it to expand. Shareholders want maximum profits at all
price levels and “forward deals” were good at any price of gold. Once
hooked on “hedge profits” during the good times of a high gold price, the
mines now “must have at all cost” “forward deals”, just to survive. Some
say the mines will not forward sell at these, break even prices. However,
the shareholders say it’s better to hedge now, for a lower price will bring doom! With the US$ price of gold holding at just above average break even levels, and the ensuing virtual bankruptcy of several well known companies, it appears that the mine owners are correct.

REMARKS: GOOD BUSINESS MEANS THAT WITH THE EXPANSION OF MONEY SUPPLY, GOLD AND GOLD RESERVES HAD TO EXPAND WITH THE CURRENCY EXPANSION. GOLD PRICES HAD TO BE MANIPULATED LOWER BEFORE OIL PRODUCERS WOULD LOWER THE PRICE OF OIL. FORWARD SALES AND ROLLOVER OF FUTURE CONTRACTS ON GOLD PRODUCTION FOR MANY YEARS INTO THE FUTURE WOULD CREATE A QUASAI PAPER GOLD MARKET. ( ILLUSION OF MORE GOLD. ) THE MAJOR GOLD PRODUCERS ARE NOW HOOKED, SCALED AND GUTTED, AS ANOTHER WOULD PROBABLY SAY.

Understand, that many entities lend gold, but it is the CBs that started
and do most of it. Their purpose was to create a “paper gold” market that
would allow them to manage the “freely convertible” price of gold. The CB
lends the gold to a bank that sells it on the open market.

( Usually, the gold is placed privately as it must go to the correct
destination. ) Then the bank holds the money and draws interest as
incremental payments are made to the mine for new gold delivered
against the contract. Over the long period that a mine takes to produce
and repay the gold, this money grows. To grasp the fact that the CBs had
a plan, is to know that they lend the gold for only 1% or 2% while the
proceeds set in a Bullion Bank and grow with interest for the benefit of the BB and the mine! And further, the lenders allow the return of the gold to be extended out for many years, as in “spot deferred”. The CBs allow public opinion to think of this as “typical government stupid”, it’s not!

REMARKS: TYPICAL GOVERNMENT STUPID OR SMART AS A FOX? THE MARKET CREATED BY THIS PAPER GOLD BY BB'S AND CB'S IS HUGE. WHEN ONE CONSIDERS THIER RESERVES AND FUTURE CONTRACTS FOR A MAJOR PORTION OF THE WORLDS GOLD PRODUCTION FOR MANY YEARS OUT, THAT ANY OTHERS INVOLVED IN THE MARKET ARE INCONSEQUENTIAL.

Now that the gold price in US$ is around production cost, most mines
must use “paper gold” to survive. The gold industry is coming under world
bank domination, without signing away any sovereignty! Slowly, the CBs
are gaining the ability to manage production and price with this simple
tool.

REMARKS: WOW, WHAT A STATEMENT. THE BB'S AND CB'S HAVE CORNERED THE GOLD MARKET WITH THESE SIMPLE TOOLS. THEY OWN APPROXIMATELY HALF THE WORLDS GOLD RESERVES ABOVE GROUND, THEY OWN, PRACTICALLY, ALL THE MAJOR GOLD PRODUCERS, PLUS THE FUTURE PRODUCTION OF GOLD FOR MANY YEARS INTO THE FUTURE. THEY HAVE CREATED AN ARTIFICIAL PRICE FOR GOLD. GOLD IS TRADED TODAY IN A PAPER MANNER, NOT PHYSICAL ( SMALL WHEN COMPARED TP PAPER. ) THIS IS WHY ANOTHER IS TELLING US TO BUY PHYSICAL. IF AND WHEN PAPER MARKET IS NO LONGER WORKING IN A CONTROLLED MANNER, A PERIOD WILL OCCUR WHERE ALL TRADING WILL STOP. THIS STOP IN TRADING WILL HAPPEN BECAUSE THE PRICE OF GOLD WILL RISE VERY RAPIDLY, FASTER THAN ANYONE CAN IMAGINE. AT THAT TIME IT WILL BE TOO LATE. ( ( PURE AND SIMPLE. ) )


“If they want new mine supply on the market, they roll over the contract
to the BB. If they want new supply off the market, they allow the BB to
pay for and take delivery of the gold and return it to the CB vault.” “Also, by offering ( or withholding ) vault gold from lease, they affect the lease rate and thereby control private lending as well”
Understand that the second sentence action is used because gold lending
is done by many different entities. Many times a mine isn’t even involved. Sometimes, gold isn’t even involved, just paper. But, it’s still based on the gold price! The paper price, that is.
thank you

REMARKS: THE PLAN TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD WORKED FOR A WHILE. THIS PLAN SEEMS TO BE BEGINNING TO FALL APART AT THE SEAMS. NOW, BECAUSE OF ANOTHERS BRILLIANT POSTS, ( IMHO ) , ONE CAN BEGIN TO SEE THAT THE BANKS CAN NOT KEEP THE PRICE OF GOLD IN A RANGE ACCEPTABLE TO THE OIL INTERESTS. ONCE THIS RANGE OF $320/OZ TO $360/OZ IS BROKEN, OIL PRODUCERS ARE GOING TO BE VERY UNHAPPY. THEY ARE NOW.


Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 19:57
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
Copyright © 1998 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
REPLY TO:

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 15:18

OLD GOLD ( Paper Gold ) ID#238295:

What do you see as the likely trigger for this anticipated golden earthquake?

Mr. Old Gold,
The US$ price of gold is, now held between several extremes. In Nov. of
last year, a understanding was reached that the “paper gold” market was
out of control. The private market was using this medium in a way not
intended. Gold was to be taken and held in the $320 to $360 range. This
was good for all. As the down trend was not seen in price yet, it was
known that trading was in place to drop the price. Perhaps, even below
The BIS capital level! Several very large physical buys were made in the
off market ( see Date: Sat Nov 29 1997 15:53 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! )
ID#60253: ) as a warning. At that time the CBs started a slowdown in
lending and sales. The market came close to a major resolution. In Jan.
the BIS was close to a large open move, it would have caused a paper panic.

REMARKS: I BELIEVE ANOTHER MEANS BY EXTREMES, ANYTHING BELOW THE PRICE OF $320/OZ+/- AND ANYTHING OVER $360/OZ+/- PRICE. ONCE THESE EXTREMES ARE BROKEN, THE BB'S AND CB'S HAVE LOST THIER ABILITY TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD. LAST NOV,97, A MEETING MUST HAVE BEEN HELD ABOUT THIS LOSS OF CONTROL. THE PRICE IN GOLD WAS $334/OZ+/-. SEVERAL LARGE PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD WERE MADE TO WARN THE BANKS TO STRAIGHTEN UP AND FLY RIGHT. THERE HAD TO BE CONCERN ON THE PART OF THE OIL PRODUCERS THAT THE PRICE OF GOLD WAS HEADED LOWER. A PERCIEVED THREAT THAT IF THE PRICE WENT BELOW THE BIS CAPITAL LEVEL ( ( $280/OZ+$72/OZ ( CONTINGENCY ) ) , THAT THE BIS WOULD HAVE TO BUY IN THE OPEN MARKET. IF THIS ACTION IS TAKEN BY BIS, THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD WOULD COLLAPSE THEREBY CAUSING AN UNWANTED PANIC. ANOTHER PURCHASE WAS MADE ( BELGIAN? ) TO INFORM THE BANKERS THAT THE PRICE OF GOLD HAS TO BE RAISED TO THE ACCEPTABLE LEVEL OF $320/OZ TO $360/OZ. THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED AS OF YET.

Oil will not accept the position, as is. Gold must come back into range as oil falls no further. Any loss of perceived control by the CBs will trigger a bid by oil. It would be better for time to pass and allow a natural change to the new oil currency ( perhaps 1 1/2 years ) . However, it is now my view that the CBs have lost control! I expect a break above $360 to create an allout run to infinity, before year end. Physical gold should be purchased for a lifetime holding, not a trade.
thank you

REMARKS: THE CURRENT CREATED ( ARTIFICIAL ) PRICE OF GOLD AND OIL IS NO LONGER ACCEPTABLE TO THE OIL INTERESTS. THE 2ND WARNING BY A LARGE PURCHASE ( BELGIAN? ) HAS NOT WORKED TO DATE. THIS SITUATION IS GOING TO FORCE THE OIL INTERESTS TO MAKE OTHER LARGE PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD UNTIL THE BANKS GET THIER ACT TOGETHER ( OR IS IT NOW BEYOND THIER CONTROL ) . THE PRICE OF $360/OZ SEEMS TO BE CRITICAL. ANOTHER IS ALLUDING TO THE FACT THAT ONCE THIS PRICE IS BREACHED ( BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR ) , THE PRICE OF GOLD WILL STOP TRADING UNTIL A TRUE BALANCE BETWEEN THE $US AND GOLD IS REACHED. SEVERAL ON THIS FORUM HAVE CALCULATED THE PRICE. IT IS IN THE 1000'S.

Date: Mon Mar 09 1998 07:55
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
ALL:

The purchase of large physical stocks of gold in Nov. did send a message
to the CBs. They did begin slowdown of sales/easing. The “management
tool of gold in the 90s” ( see Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 13:08 ANOTHER (
THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253 ) is now to go into reverse! A large purchase,
now, is sending another message, “bring gold back into $320 to $360 US$
range. We should see this in five to ten days. This will be a hard thing, as it may create a crush to cover. Let us watch this “new gold market”, as it is not as before.
I will post later in march!

REMARKS: ANOTHER HAS CONSISTANTLY TALKED ABOUT THE PRICE GOLD SHOULD BE IN THE RANGE OF $320/OZ TO $360/OZ. OBVIOUSLY THE BANKS CAN NOT OR WILL NOT ATTAIN THIS RANGE THAT THE OIL PRODUCERS WOULD ACCEPT AS A TRUE VALUE OF EXCHANGE. THE OIL INTERESTS WILL DO IT FOR THEM BY LARGE PURCHASE IN THE PHYSICAL MARKET.

GENTLEMEN, THE BANKERS HAVE LOST CONTROL AND ARE PROBABLY PULLING OUT ALL STOPS BY COVERING SHORTERS TO PREVENT A FURTHER DROP IN PRICE.

ANOTHER DID NOT MEAN THAT THE PRICE OF GOLD WILL BE IN THIS RANGE IN 5 TO 10 DAYS. I BELIEVE HE MEANT THAT THE POLICY TO DO SO IS STARTING. HOW ANYONE CAN ACCUSE ANOTHER OF MAKING SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS IN A SPECIFIED TIME IS BEYOND MY COMPREHENSION WHEN HE HAS ALLUDED TO THIS RANGE IN PREVIOUS POSTS AS BEING DESIRABLE TO THE OIL INTERESTS. IT IS OBVIOUS THAT HE IS TOO INTELLIGENT TO MAKE A SPECIFIC PREDICTION IN A SPECIFIC TIME. I'M SURE HE DOES NOT BELIEVE HE'S GOD.


SUMMARY:

FOR MORE INFORMATION AS TO ANOTHERS IDENTITY, LOOK UP MY POSTS TO ALL-3/16/98-10:32, PH in LA-3/16/98-13:05 AND PREACHER-3/16/98-15:12. THE SITE FOR THIS INFO ON THE COLLIN SEYMOUR PAGE HAS BEEN MYSTERIOUSLY DELETED. SEYMOUR HIMSELF WONDERED WHETHER IT WAS A MERE COINCIDENCE -ALL-3/20/98-08:14. THIS COINCIDENCE MAY SUPPORT THAT ANOTHER IS A REAL, LIVE, HONEST MAN OF STATURE WITH CONSIDERABLE INSIDER KNOWLEDGE. ( IMHO ) .

THE PROVERBIAL S%%T IS GOING TO HIT THE FAN SOON, UNLESS THE BANKS REGAIN CONTROL. ANOTHER DOES NOT BELIEVE THEY HAVE. THIS MEANS THAT PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD ARE IN THE WORKS, WHICH WILL SOUND THE DEATH BELL FOR PAPER GOLD. !!!!SOON!!!!

THE ABOVE IS MY OPINION. I JUST ASK THAT YOU CONSIDER WHAT I HAVE WRITTEN SERIOUSLY AND MAKE YOUR OWN DECISSIONS TO ACCEPT OR REJECT. THE INDICATION THAT THERE IS A SHRED OF TRUTH IN ANOTHERS IDENTITY WARRENTS A DISSECTION BY ALL AND A FINAL COMPARISSON OF NOTES.

THIS MAY BE THE MOST IMPORTANT THING THAT LURKERS AND POSTERS ON THIS FORUM CAN DO RIGHT NOW BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. THE TIME IS AT HAND.

THE SHADOW KNOWS! ( OR MAYBE HE DOES'NT KNOW JACK S##T. )

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 16:25
SDRer__A (All--I think when you look at the Japanese currency post, you) ID#288155:
may agree with me that the system is out-of-control...and
has been for some little while.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 16:22
Allen(USA) (fundiMETAList) ID#255190:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Re: posted URL @ North's site

Man that is the best news I have read on Y2K since the very beginning of exploring this. I must thank God for waking these people up in time to at least triage this. Without His mercy and grace poured out upon us we are history with a capital 'H'. That is the kind of URL/post you can show someone as a reality check which can not be denied.

When AG says they will be printing you can be garranteed they are already doing it in mass. Someone posted the other day his brother came back from a mint in the US and saw the presses running at full bore, with pallets of cash ready for shipment. My question is Will they be able to print enough to saticfy the demand from a US$1 Trillion M3 supply plus all the redemptions out of Mfunds and bond markets ? My estimate would be they need to print US$ 10 trillion.

Could THAT be inflationary in the least?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 16:20
SDRer__A (In line with Donald's 'look back', look back at THIS rear-view mirror!) ID#288155:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
In Search of Further Stability in Yen Exchange Rates
Japan Foreign Trade Council, Inc.
translation from the original version
March, 1996.

What are the issues?
The Yen-Dollar exchange rate, which had moved around 100 Yen to the Dollar in the summer of 1994, appreciated to 79.75 Yen in April 1995 and then declined to around 100 Yen in October. There were no changes in economic fundamentals to justify this. The 20 Yen fluctuation in a relatively short period of time not only made Japan's economic slump even more serious than it otherwise would have been, but it also accelerated structural shift of production abroad. Such an accelerated production shift would not have taken place without the 20 Yen swing. The shift overseas continued through 1996, when the Yen stayed more or less stable around 110 Yen to the Dollar.

The reason for this is simple: a prudent management would not make large scale investment in Japan on the basis of a 110 Yen to the Dollar exchange rate, once they had seen the Yen appreciate to 80 Yen. In such circumstances, it is impossible to predict when such domestic investment will turn out to be a money-losing venture. That is why Japanese firms have shifted production to countries where costs are low enough
to absorb possible exchange rate changes. The shift of production abroad, which would not have taken place without the 20 Yen swing if the Yen had always been at the level it is now, will have a negative effect on Japan's GDP and employment for a long time to come. The damage has been done. Such volatility in exchange rates in such a short time is not only unnecessary, but it is also detrimental to the economy.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 16:14
Ray (Barron's) ID#411149:
There is an interesting article in Barron's this week- Gold Coffin?
http://interactive.wsj.com/edition/current/articles/OtherVoices.htm

Time to BUY! or finish up buyin!

Tally Ho

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 16:14
Allen(USA) (Donald) ID#255190:
Delicious posts. Thanks for your efforts. We are well served by your posts. Thnx.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 16:11
Allen(USA) (ANOTHER) ID#255190:

Thank you. Your thoughts are worth attention. I/we will think about these ideas together. I look forward to more of this conversation.

Good day.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 16:11
Auric (themissinglink) ID#255151:

Here is a wealth of statistical information on M1 M2 M3, as well as a whole lot of other data from the Minneapolis Fed. Here is theconnectinglink-- http://woodrow.mpls.frb.fed.us/info/policy/index.html

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 16:10
Allen(USA) (ANOTHER) ID#255190:

Thank you. Your thoughts are worth attention. I/we will think about these ideas together. I look forward to more of this conversation.

Good day.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 16:08
James (Old Gold@Farrakhan) ID#252150:
The problem with Farrakhan's advice to the ME Countries to back their cuurencies with AU is that their cupboards are bare. They have been sucked into & coerced into spending most of their wealth on armaments which require expensive upgrading & maintenance. Their standard of living has been declining for many years & the U.S. has them ( mainly Saudi Arabia & Kuwait ) just where they want them. They are nothing more than client States with puppet govts.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 16:07
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
ALLEN ( USA ) ,
I ask also, if we may pickup where we leave this? I have questions for you in addition to answering yours.

Thank you

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 16:04
Bob M (Another) ID#26059:
Your posts do give good food for thought...but how long will the game be able to be played by the rules that the US has set?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 16:03
elf (April gold bottom? OLD GOLD, panda, Earl, RJ, nailz, if you're still lurking:) ID#33180:
re: my 15:50 on a possible major cycle low for gold the week of April 20, have you any strong opinion on that possibility? I'm not sure who is still out there, and under what current names, but welcome your comments.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:59
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Copyright © 1998 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mr. Allen,

Many view oil and gold with basic “commodity eyes”. But, I ask you, does supply and demand create the price of these items? On the surface, it does, just as any item. However, look under the cover of public reporting, and we find that, what is being traded is not the actual commodity, but a paper proxy, contracts usually expressed and settled as “various currencies” not the item itself! I offer this consideration to all, would oil or gold hold the same currency price if no paper future market existed? Think long and hard on this, if oil and gold were bought and sold “marked to the market” physical for cash, would the USD price stay the same in todays economy?

Oil is managed from the standpoint of “supply” not demand, as demand is infinite for this now indispensable substance. The world economic need for oil has build our modern financial structure as an upside down pyramid, on oil! Every business, asset, debt, currency and army is “priced in currency terms” that reflect a “full supply of cheap oil”!

But, what is cheap oil? It is defined in two terms, a currency price that allows a country to operate it’s economy in a competitive way, and, in another real commodity price that allows producers to value their product as an asset, not subject to the valuations of the world economy, gold.

From this standpoint, one can see the value of managing both oil and gold. For the oil field owner, operating in a “oil consuming” country, there is no value in this form of management! But, from an “oil producing” country, holding world class reserves, a low USD price offeres all the advantages. It produces an ever “dependent” economic system,

that, “in real terms of need” “upvalues all inground reserves” with a far higher “future need”. That “future need”, as expressed in a drive “to maintain current asset values ( dow jones ) ” creates the political drive to manage oil prices!

( there is more to this point, do I continue, or do you wish to add/debate/discuss, now? )

I must stop here. We can continue another day, yes?

Thank You.


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:58
SDRer__A (Donald at 15:43, That was most welcom!) ID#288155:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
and clearly evinced the Master's touch...

Perhaps you'll 'enjoy' this, from an international Post Keynesian conference:

All commentators seem to agree that the floating exchange rate system is a source of trouble. Before we can sell a better x-rate system, we must convince everybody that the present one is a disaster. It is easy to sell this idea to the public, particularly business. They are only too well aware of how the exchange rate makes imports too cheap and their export incomes too low.

The floating exchange rate system is a market which errs, consistently and inantely producing the wrong macroeconomic and maegaeconomic results. I am advocating the creation of a discipline called megaeconomics. We need something like a Post Keynesian Megaeconomics, which designs the economic engines, levers, pumps and rudders for open national economies in a globalized world economy in a way that they are fit for such exogenous things as people.
Monitored conversation--as an outsider--not for attribution
Gold...Gold...Gold...P L E A S E

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:52
robnoel__A (Whoever wanted to know the price of Plat Eagles) ID#411112:

some dealers charge $25.00 over spot some $30.00,ONCE AGAIN BE CAREFULL OUT THERE,don't buy just because some guy offers it for less,there are a lot of honest good dealers out there,but there are also a few that will take the money and run,a few years ago some clients would call me for a quote only to tell me they could get it cheaper from the DAngerles brothers,he was selling KRands at spot,needless to say they are still waiting on delivery when the brothers get out of jail

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:52
Donald__A (Public behavior when gold price changes (7 April 1997) ID#26793:
http://www.rferl.org/nca/features/1997/04/F.RU.970403152204.html

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:50
elf (April gold bottom? Mike Sheller, APH, Cyclist, hepcat, other forecasters:) ID#33180:
Copyright © 1998 elf/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Last November, Dan Ascani ( using Elliott and fibonacci ) predicted an April 1998 62-month cycle low for gold. Since then, I have seen two independent predictions of gold lows in the April 20 week. Do any of your methods concur with this timeframe, and on what basis? Multiple forecasts using the same method are as one forecast, but when several independent methods point to the same conclusion, it bears watching. I remember several recent years when the third week of April produced short-term tops, but in 1993 late April was a big longterm bottom for gold stocks. Any strong opinions, and by what methods do you reach them?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:44
SDRer__A (Delphi--One dislikes being unable to ‘take things at face value’) ID#288155:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

as it does seem to label one--at the very least--paranoid, but I can not help but believe something else is swirling around the Duisenberg/Trichet Affair. Jeffrey Sachs, the Harvard internationalist, within the space of ten days, contributed a quite long, quite passionate denunciation of the IMF ( which was republished in other US papers ) ; then, there was a VERY cutting letter about Duisenberg which, without mentioning Trichet’s name, was obviously a “this man, not that man” campaign speech for Trichet! Any suggestions/thoughts about what game they think they are playing now? {:- )

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:43
Donald__A (Old, but interesting, IMF gold news (23 April 1996) ID#26793:
http://www.rferl.org/nca/features/1996/04/F.RU.96042315555613.html

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:38
Bob M (Platinum Eagles) ID#26059:
Remember one thing, there are still 21,000 of those pieces floating around that will never be circulated.... that is not a small number considering how fickle the collector base is for that coin... I have seen very few latter mint issues that sustain their initial price release..the only one making a killing on those is the mint...wait a few years and you more than likely, based on past performance, be able to purchase those coins at less than issue

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:36
Adrian (DBog(Arizona Star Resources)) ID#254159:
Check out the SI Bema and Arizona Star site at the following:

http://www.exchange2000.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-3739392

or the Bema Gold Site to obtain a information packet:

http://www.bema.com/

Hope this helps


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:30
robnoel__A (True story on 1998 Platinum Proof Sets,if I'amnot mistaken) ID#411112:

the issue price was around $1295.00,had a client call last week to see if I could get one,shopped it on the coin net,best wholesale price I could find $1900.00 which means it retails at about $2100.00

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:26
Donald__A (@Allen(USA) I think the reference is to the Beirut Resolution (scroll down)) ID#26793:
http://www.gigweb.com/news/it/report/

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:24
fundaMETAList (Allen, Miro, All: Y2K) ID#341214:
Copyright © 1998 fundaMETAList/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Allen, All: I enjoyed your post regarding the odds on having Y2K problems and it shows there are several ways to communicate the critical nature of the the Y2K problem. Here's one of my favorites:

Think about the video shots you have probably seen of imploding buildings. A building has a system that holds it up. When you dynamite all the key components of that system all at the same time, what happens? Our information systems are a key component, perhaps the very heart, of our business and society structures. When the software bomb goes off in our information systems and embedded chip systems on Jan 1, 2000, all at the same time, what happens?

Many people think we are just going to see a puff of smoke with no followup BOOM. They are regrettably, but surely, mistaken.

Here is the URL of an interesting post I came across today. In it Sen. Bennett quotes Greenspan as saying We will have problems in the banking industry. There are no details regarding the quote but, considering the source, I think it says a lot in itself.

Sen. Bennett Says That FED Will Print Money

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/1253


Miro:

Do you have any personnal knowledge and/or comments regarding these people now being installed in key Y2K positions in the DoD? Please see the article at the URL. I wonder how many of them will be gone a year from now. TIA for any info you can provide.

DOD taps DISA's Curtis as Y2K czar

http://www.fcw.com/pubs/fcw/1998/0302/web-czar3-2-1998.html


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:22
Delphi (@2BR02B, SDRer__A) ID#258129:
Copyright © 1998 Delphi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thanks for reply.
2BR02B: Indeed, a lot of Dutch companies invest in USA. That’s why when US$ goes up, so does Amsterdam bourse - and other way around.
SDRer__A: It is difficult to say what the very last events are, but struggle continue, that’s for sure. In today’s Dutch newspaper NRC HANDELSBLAD it is written, that according to Premier Kok, There is still no progress regarding Duisenberg candidature. I hardly can imagine what kind of elegant compromise can be reached, that will be accepted here. In fact, it was France who was pushing all neighboring weaker currency countries into EMU. Not all are happy about that in counties with stronger currencies. It is possible, that conflict will cost Duisenberg a chair, but I do not think, France will be able to insist on it’s creature. And all smaller EU countries are watching now...

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:12
Allen(USA) (Oil and gold Management) ID#255190:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
ANOTHER,

Many would say the market is the reality. They would say your thoughts are 'up-side down'. The thinkking is that everyone wants higher prices if they sell, not lower prices.

The view you present is plausible to me. The paper currencies are just paper and this means they are of themselves nothing. When gold was severed from the paper US ollar in ealry 1970's then paper was 'lost', no anchor, adrift. And who, if they did not have confidence, would think paper was worth anything at all.

All systems of payment must have confidence. We were losing confidence in that decade ( 1970's ) . And so the entire system was at risk of collapse.

You have alluded in the past that there was a deal to stabilize the dollar ( 1975? ) through its association as the 'oil currency'. Can you tell us more about this?

Please continue.

Thank you.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 14:49
Ted (223) ID#330175:
Go for it~~~~~~~~any other frustrated ABX-bugs 'out there'

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 14:48
Ted (BART...............I apologize-----------) ID#330175:
on bended knee...Your site is GREAT!....*go Gold*

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 14:42
DJ (Channels) ID#215208:
Copyright © 1998 DJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
That's no bull!

Silver: I was pretty much expecting silver to hold within the upward channel this week, helping gold break out of its downward channel. Silver didn't and gold didn't. For sure silver broke through the channel bottom. Even worse than the chart of afternoon London closings shows. But it seems to have recovered. If the rally late Friday holds in the London market ( not plotted on the chart ) , it may be that silver will resume its upward trend. It may take a few days for this to take shape.

Gold: Yes, by its mostly sideways movement, gold did break out of the short term upward channel I defined. However, I fixed that! I just redrew the channel. The fact is, I now don't really have any good rationale to predict the next move in gold. The RSA stocks seem to be holding up. I still think that silver is the key. If it resumes its upward movement, I think gold will follow this time.

Palladium/Platinum: The line from the palladium peak in October, extended upward at the slope of the overall upward trend of palladium turned out to be a very good predictor of the top in palladium. I look for palladium's double top to reach 278-280 ( so far hit 275 ) . I still think platinum will touch the top of its upward channel, around 423-425. I think its likely that PA and PL will reach these levels at the same time, within the next week or two. Maybe even on Monday.


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 14:38
SDRer__A (Delphi--on the ECB saga) ID#288157:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thursday's FT has an article, France confident over ECB directorate deal which states--in part--...President Jacques Chirac is threatening a veto of Mr. Duisenberg; but behind the scenes there is believed to be some movement, with the French relying ultimately on Chancellor Helmut
Kohl to broker an elegant compromise. [I'm fascinated by that 'elegant'!]
The French government still believes it possible to settle the issue in time for the May summit which will confirm which countries are to join the single currency.

This would seem to be a fairly straightforward 'assignment'...and it
has been bubbling merrily on a back-burner for what? Three-four months!

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 14:33
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Copyright © 1998 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Do I learn from persons at Kitco? Yes. Will persons learn from these discussions? I do not know. As Mr. Kitner is the judge, I ask for latitude” in this discussion. My intent is to bring the “reality of gold” into a better focus, thru oil.

Mr. Allen,

I ask for your time and personal thoughts on this “now to be”, ongoing discussion of gold. In my world, “ To understand gold, one must start with oil”! Let us go back in time, to the early 70’s. Many did view the oil market as an attempt at a “cartel” to keep the price high in USD terms. My view, from the where I stand, did show a “cartel” for public

image. However, the oil market was never controlled to move the price higher! It was controlled to keep the price down! Even “back then”, oil was managed in much the same way as gold is today. Yes, oil became “gold” from an economic viewpoint, “black gold” if you will! In that time, as today, oil and gold had to be managed to keep their true value, in terms of currencies from destroying the free market financial system based on low prices for both. Politically, there is much more to gain, by producing countries, by “managing” it’s price down, than by “allowing” it’s price to rise thru freemarket use!

( there is more to this point, do I continue, or do you wish to add/debate/discuss, now? )


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 14:25
223 (One last post for the day: mailbag analysis) ID#26669:
Copyright © 1998 223/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Today from the mail I tore up 5 ( five ) offers for credit cards with introductory interest rates as low as 4.9%, cash rebates as high as $100 and fixed interest as high as one year. I saved a coupon from my local bank for 1/4% off a loan ( who knows, you might need it? ) .

And I thumbed through a flyer from Blanchard and Company ( the New Orleans based Company, not Jim Blanchard's Jefferson based company ) which had some World Gold Council graphs and tables. The most interesting one of these was a table and chart listing volatilities of accounts hedged with Tbills versus those hedged with gold. Basically the tradoff is a little less yield for a little less volatility if I read the chart right. The upshot of the whole book might be condensed to the statement that gold is now more negatively correlated with stocks than other asset classes. IMHO

So my on the spot opinion is that 1 ) somebody is really trying to sucker me into borrowing more and 2 ) there are people who say that debt instruments aren't as good a hedge as they used to be. IMHO

Go figure.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 14:20
IDT (More Info) ID#228128:
Copyright © 1998 IDT/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Someone here mentioned a while back that nobody was predicting currency turmoil in 1997. The tape that I mentioned in the previous post was produced in 1995 and in it the speaker predicted more Mexican style currency collapses and an accelerating debasement of the dollar through creation of money, which we are perhaps seeing the initial stages of right now. The speaker may have more videos, etc. and mentioned a newsletter. I don't know anything about it as I do not subscribe to it but I did write the address and phone number down. If you're interested send me an email at IDT@worldnet.att.net For all I know he may not be in business any longer but I'll be glad to dig it out of the files and pass the info along. I am not into the biblical prophesy/conspiracy theory stuff at all. I had my wife watch the tape as well though. Whether you are or not, the video was highly interesting and I would recommend it to anyone who has experienced hand waving and frustration while trying to explain the MO of the international financial community to freinds and family. Just give them this video and they'll really think your a nut.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 14:12
Bully Beef (Oh good. It's time to write my 25,000 word essay on.....) ID#260119:
Go gold.!!! Dang it's my nap time. Another are you a Liberal? Or let me put it this way. Who would you rather have for Prez. Howard Stern or Oprah Winfrey.Sorry I had a weak moment.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 14:12
Allen(USA) (ANOTHER(THOUGHTS!)) ID#255190:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Hello. We are ignorant of the activities of those who trade large amounts of gold. Those here, including me, are small potatos, little fish. There are a few PM and coin dealers/traders here. This bounds our view.

If you could express to us what the world of the big boys looks like this may help us to see a bit more from your view.

Many here make a judgement based on if you can call a price action in the market ( spot ) within a few days or dollars. Others here are interested in insights into general direction or insights into the what makes the market work the way it does.

Each of your posts has, to my mind, added to build a view that is indeed different and provocative. Please continue to address these things.

Thank you.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 14:12
SDRer__A () ID#288157:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

To digress for a moment from this tale that no-one is reading, there has been a great deal of discussion of late that has read very much like “Euro will be gold’s Savior!”

Think of Gold as the PRIVATE ASSET of the banks. Governments will be only dragged to gold as a standard, reluctant, screaming and declaring that it will be the end of government as the West knows it. They are right. And it will happen. But NOT because it is what they wish to happen!

Should you doubt the verisimilitude of this statement, consider:

In Arthur Miller’s “The Crucible” a central character, condemned in Salem’s witchcraft trails, is put to death by the piling of boulders on his chest....this is the European Union--another MASSIVE boulder of bureaucracy placed atop the already impressive pile on Europe’s chest.

Thoughtful newspapers are filled--day after day--with the maneuvering of EC participants to protect their power points. One example: “EU puts itself to the test with proposal to overhaul CAP and regional spending--reports on the battles ahead as Brussels plans to tighten the rules governing the two biggest items in the Union’s budget before enlargement eastwards--” all of which is essentially Maggie Thatcher’s rebates revisited ...but it goes on and on and on and on.

JTF made a very salient comment [as is his habit] the other day: I had shared with him the Europa site, which holds all the formal pronouncements of plans. While it can be useful, it is a black hole of information. And as JTF pointed out,there is so much there, there is no there there. It makes an apt metaphor for the Union.

IDT@the.ISO If your boss is intrigued by ISO 9000, he will be transfixed
by ISO 14000! {:- )

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 14:09
Skip (LGB2__A (@ RJ..Platinum PROOFS)) ID#287129:
I found your posting re PE proofs interesting. Can you tell us what the uncirculated ( but not proofs ) 1 oz 1997 PEs are selling for?
--Skip

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 14:01
Allen(USA) (Here) ID#255190:

.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:59
2BR02B? (@delphi) ID#266105:

Thanks for info. Was wondering when someone would correct
the ECU leader to Dutch, and further thanks for the further
detailed minutae surrounding the maneuverings.

Letter to editor yesterday in WSJ asserted that the
Dutch are the third largest ovwrseas investors in the US of A
after, I suppose, Canada and England.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:58
Ted (Bart....................Like I said-----I've been ofline for the past twenty hours---) ID#330175:
and just read your ( 00:51 ) post and I have to assume this is in response to my posting of an 'internet joke' yesterday?---since the 'flare-up' of SEVERAL weeks ago I have said nothing negative and am quite bewildered by your post but I would like to STAY and will now eliminate jokes from my my repertoire---I apologize bro~~~~~~*go gold*--*go ABX*

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:58
LGB2__A (@ RJ...Poker game) ID#315256:
Copyright © 1998 LGB2__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Hey RJ, you have me beat with your Aces, all I have's a pair o' fives! Ironocally, I am at this moment headed out to play some hot poker with the big boys over at Garden city. I say ironically, because I liked your poker analogy of yesterday.

Namely, no one is going to score on every play they make. The trick is to win more than you lose. Even with a great starting hand like Aces, you're going to lose close to 50% of the hands you play, but if you play them all correctly, your wins will far outpace your losses.

You strike me as the kind of poker player that would be a consistent winner in the games I play in. While some folks play based on gut feelings, hopes, wishes, bad draws, chasing long shots, throwing good money after bad, incorrect pot odds calculations, incorrect draw calculations, etc. etc. etc...... you would be betting only the hands with positive expectation, based on math, experience, sound strategy, and knowledge of the other players.

Pushing your good hands very agressively, and being quick to fold a bad or mediocre hand. Never getting married emotionally to what looked like a great hand initially, by continuing to make bad bets on a hand that started well but eventually showed itself to be clearly beat.

That's what it takes to be a winner in poker, that's what it takes to be a winner in the investment world. Course a dose of good old gut level instinct CAN and does come into play on ocassion....but only if it's proved itself in the past, and ONLY on ocassion! ( And even then it's usually based on subtle cues you've subconciously picked up from the other players )

Off to ( hopefully ) have a profitable session......

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:55
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
ALLEN ( USA )

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:47
RJ (..... Cool .....) ID#411259:

LGB -

You tellin' me that my proof ( paid $695 ) is worth 900? I don't follow the collector side of this market, so I didn't have a clue on what it is worth today. Let me rephrase: The best investment I made last year was buying a 1997 PE Proof.

Shoulda' bought more like you did.

OK


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:44
Delphi (There was a discussion yesterday - who will be a director of ECB) ID#258129:
Copyright © 1998 Delphi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Someone wrote, that first head of ECB will be German… Here is some information on this item.
At present time there are two candidates for this chair: Dutch Wim Duisenberg and French Trichet. For some time Duisenberg was the only one publicly known candidate when France made it’s announcement. A few words about Dutch candidate: former Governor of Dutch CB, former Chairman of the Board and President of the Bank for International Settlements ( yes, well known BIS ) , at present time - director of EMI ( European Monetary Institute, that later this year will be transformed and will be known as ECB ) .
Candidature of Duisenberg is supported by practically all EU members, except France and may be Italy ( some Dutch politicians where against participation of Italy in EMU at current stage ) . Especially, he is supported by Germans. Why? There was a deal. Some time ago EU had to take a decision, where ( in what city ) ECB will be located. One of possible places was Amsterdam. Germany was desperately needed to have it in Germany ( Frankfurt ) to deal with domestic public opinion. The deal was that Holland will withdraw proposal of Amsterdam as a place for ECB in exchange of Germany support for Dutch candidature to be the chairman of new ECB. That’s how Duisenberg got his current post of director of EMI.
After French announcement of new candidate there was a try to settle it 50-50: first 4 years of 8-year presidency period to Duisenberg, next 4 years to Trichet. Duisenberg rejected the deal.
Head of ECB should be appointed during EU meeting on May 2-3. All 15 EU members, including those, who does not participate in EMU should vote for a candidate. One negative voice is enough to dismiss any candidate.
Now some speculations. It is not so much time left - only few weeks. Intensive diplomatic activity is going on. Is it possible, that that France will vote against Duisenberg - yes. Is there any chance for Trichet - no - then Netherlands will vote against him and that will be enough. If all this will happened, then there will be another round. But again, there is not much time left and meeting in may should be a success - otherwise the whole story is under question mark, especially in Germany. In the mean time Netherlands linked appointment of ECB with appointment of new director of the Bank of World Development and Cooperation ( creature of France ) .

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:42
Ersel (@2BRO and zeke) ID#228283:

Remember all caveats apply...
My mother is 83 yrs. old and requires income, has other holdings including physical PMs. She lived through THE depression,and WW2 in Chicago and knows through her experiences the VALUE of gold. Her father buried a substancial amount of gold coins in their backyard during Roosevelt's confiscation. She understands risk. Of all the stocks for income, she picked two:FCX_pa and CDE_p.
Now i'm going to try and talk her into Bart's deal,which I feel is too good to pass up; FWIW.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:41
oris (RJ) ID#238422:
I like the thoughts of such cold-blooded and logical
professionals like yourself. Thanks for sharing and
keep posting...

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:41
LGB2__A (@ RJ..Platinum PROOFS) ID#315256:
Copyright © 1998 LGB2__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Great posts on Platinum RJ. I would only make one minor point of disagreement ( the Numismaticist in me comin out ) . You said you paid Way too much for a single Platinum AE.

However, if you paid anything close to the mint's issue price, they've gone WAY Up in value, particularly the $100 face and $50 face. Coin dealers are selling the One Oz. for $990+ and the Half Oz. for $540 +.

These coins had such low mintages, ( 21,000 One oz, 18,000 Half Oz. ) that collector interest has been steadily driving the price higher, and I expect that will continue for many years to come as folks start collecting the Series.

We saw a big jump in price/value after the First of the year, I expect another big jump in the 97's, when the 98 Proof's are released in a couple months.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:36
chas (IDT re forgot to add) ID#342282:
Interesting. There's a bunch of them and a bunch of rich ones. I'll look into this and see how the effect is being applied I'm not , but have some who could tell.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:32
oris (robnoel) ID#238422:
I know what you think, I know what I think
and you know what I think. Good thinking... and
your Dad was correct...

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:31
RJ (..... Just a lousy pair .....) ID#411259:

Robnoel -

Thanks……… Hey………. How did you get all those aces in your ID#.

Bart, I want a better hand here.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:31
winston (themissinglink) ID#245319:

I am always lurking and I, being a dedicated Goldbug, very much appreciate some of the excellent information on this site from some very knowledgeable people.
On another topic, I noted with interest that you mentioned a concern about robbery in your jewelry busines. If you would like to know about a new and most amazing theft/invasion deterrent system that really works you can e-mail me at doliver@sprint.ca. You will be hearing about it in the U.S. shortly. It is being market launched here in Canada this week.


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:30
Isure (Robnoel ref:10.24) ID#368244:

You are in the real world. I hear you telling people everyday how hard the physical is to come by at decent prices.

Well , you ain't seen nothing yet. Maybe CB'S have all the gold in the world, but as this play unfolds don't be suprised to see those premiums to spot , just get higher and higher.

Gold is cheap, the dollar is a fools game, and I guess time will tell.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:28
2BR02B? (@IDT) ID#266105:

Dunno about Baptists, snakes, biochips and beastmarks
but DNA is quaternary digital information allowing for
perfect replication and transference much like computer
files and programming except where corruption/mutation
occurs.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:27
robnoel__A (oris,it was a NGO group that made that suggestion,it did not come from official Swiss Gov.) ID#411112:

my Dad used to say, if you believe everything you hear/read you might as well eat everything you see.as for the future price of gold how knows read RJ's last post on platinum,lead could be the winner

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:26
RJ (..... Everybody Read This .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Regarding Purchase of Platinum

The number one selling platinum coin in the world ( until this year ) was the Platinum Maple Leaf ( PLF ) The Platinum Eagle ( PE ) creamed the PLF and took a lot of market share from the Royal Canadian Mint. The mint is a revenue generator. I saw some posts here about the profitability of the RCM and some surprise that this is a money making enterprise. The RCM proved that there was a market for platinum coins to individual investors, and the US Mint decided to eat the RCM's lunch.

I was the number one seller of PLF last year, personally selling more than 5% of all PLF sold in 1997. All of my personal platinum holdings are in PLF save a single PE proof that I paid way too much for- but it sure is pretty.

Yesterday, when asked how one should invest in platinum, I responded by telling them to look into buying PE. May I instead suggest a way to support this forum and add a hell of a nice commodity to your holdings?

Buy PLF directly from the RCM through Kitco. If you don't like the Mountie, buy some PLF through Bart. You will love the stuff. You think gold feels heavy, wait until you hold an ounce of platinum, its almost scary, like its Kryptonite or something. When trading platinum, I usually carry a once ounce PLF with me. I am not superstitious, but I like to hold the coin as I describe it to others. The damn thing is indestructible, apart from very minor surface scratches, the PLF has shared pocket with coins and keys, been dropped onto cement from waist height, flipped a million times to decide which way to trade the market ( a JOKE OK? ) , and still looks brand new.

Click on the RCM banner above to inquire about buying PLF from the RCM through Bart. This is a win/win scenario.


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:22
robnoel__A (RJ,great post on platinum,the wild card for plat is future applications,cold fusion as an example,) ID#411112:

the other fact, stabilty in South Africa ,forget what the press says thats a bomb waiting to go off

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:20
oris (robnoel) ID#238422:
So, when do you think POG will be back to $375?
Will it happen when Swiss vote to kill the proposed sale?



Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:19
IDT (forgot to add) ID#228128:
Copyright © 1998 IDT/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I forgot to add that the takehome message that this religous group gives to its followers is to accumulate gold, silver, and platinum. They consider this to be honest money and they consider the current financial and monetary system to be the modern version of the biblical unfair weights and measures of the devil. They have tapes that they pass around of a lecture by a preacher who is well trained in economics who describes in detail the fractional reserve banking system, hauls out UN documents about plans for a World Bank, etc. and describes the financial system in terms of biblical prophesy. I viewed one such tape and found it extremely intersting. I got it not from my supervisor but from a couple of other S. Baptists at work who knew that I invest in gold and asked me for my opinion. So, its not just Farahkan ( spelling? ) thats promoting gold for Moslem interests but Christians as well.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:13
Avalon (my 12.26; my computer problems are in my office; not with Kitco; just wanted) ID#254269:
to clarify that !

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:12
2BR02B? (@ersel) ID#266105:
-


yes, the ratings agencies routinely drop the ball
when it comes to big 'unforeseens'. Orange County, Asia,
that big insurance company debacle some years back, Equitable
Life. Some critics argue 'not to bite the hand feeding'
for missing the problems, not digging into a client's
dirty laundry too deeply. Same with accounting firms.


Regarding FCX, nothing would make much sense out of
context-- goals, other holdings, etc. I'm actually interested
in acquiring some physical gold, and have patience to wait,
getting money market yields until delivery in 2003 for,
at present about $200/oz. The recent aversion to FCX
preferred due to Indonesia I read as opportunity but
only towards my ends. The covenants and statuses
with these shares I'm comfortable with.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:05
IDT (ISO9000 and the Lumanati ) ID#228128:
SDRer: Your comments on that monitoring company in Europe and ISO brought to mind my supervisor ( also a freind ) who contends that ISO9000 is part of a Lumanati plot for world control involving monitoring everything and everybody with a large computer in Belgium that somehow is associated with the number 666 ( the antichrist ) . Also involved are future plans for biochips implanted in everyone's forehead or right arm ( the mark of the beast ) . He's a Southern Baptist and really believes in this.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:03
themissinglink (Gold investment) ID#373403:
Copyright © 1998 themissinglink/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
One of the problems with getting a gold bull going is that investors generally have no clue as to buying and holding physical. Most investors will put their precious metal investments into stocks and mutual funds investing in gold mining companies.

Well this does not help the price of gold, now, does it? One of the problems I see in getting people to invest in physical gold is the sales tax issue. I would be able to move thousands of ounces in my jewelry store to these wealthy people if I would not have to charge Illinois sales tax. I sit and talk to women all day who have more in their household checking accounts than I have in my entire inventory.

$5,000 is nothing for them to spend on a diamond. Many of them could easily be persuaded to spend a little on insurance. Of course making $10/oz as a middleman seems kind of a puny profit for the risk of a bad payment or robbery.

Steve
http://www.familyjeweler.com

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:02
RJ (..... Regarding Platinum Comparisons .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

I did post numbers, as did others, on the comparative rarity of platinum to gold. While this appears to be a compelling argument in favor of platinum, this whole approach is nothing but a sales pitch. The metals have completely different uses and are valuable for disparate reasons. Gold is money, and will sway with the world economy, platinum is industrial and operates on a more fundamental supply/demand level. One can compare the metals all day long and still be no closer to the truth of either one. Assuming continued, albeit slower, world economic growth, I will take platinum over gold in all cases. In a meltdown of world economies I want gold and guns.

The long term buy and hold approach of many here is sound and safe. This strategy precludes earnings from other investments while these funds are tied up in gold. If everything goes to hell, it will be the owners of gold and guns who become the owners of food and production. This is swell and neato but what if tomorrow is as bright as today? What if ( the simplest course of action, applying Ockham's Razor ) things continue on in pretty much the same way? Platinum as a buy and hold will offer the same safety and security as gold, but offer an opportunity for a 25% - 40% return on a physical purchase. Platinum will go well beyond $500, while gold will have trouble limping to $320. May I suggest that owners of physical gold add platinum to their holdings rather than more gold. By the end of the year, tell me which one you are happier with.


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:59
SDRer__A (Gold and Defacto Defaults) ID#288156:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

The European's Public War against their Private Asset, found support--for entirely different reasons--in the ‘owners’ of the Reserve Currency. The USG was well aware that the dollar had reached the end of its monetary-hegemony; forced--by ever more belligerent creditors--to address a current account deficit that was completely out-of-control , the PUBLIC hanging of gold presented a useful propaganda tool, ameliorating problems at home and placating creditors. They cut the best deal they could.
The West, working different agendas, had nonetheless come to common ground on the “Gold Question”. But for two imponderables, it might have gone reasonable well.

But into the equation came the East, “Y” and derivatives, “X”. And it all got even messier.

The first modern experiment with Islamic banking [1963] was undertaken in Egypt under cover, without projecting an Islamic image, for fear of being seen as a manifestation of Islamic fundamentalism which was anathema to the regime.
Islamic Banking, Mohamed Ariff, University of Malaya
political regime

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:55
Carl (zeke, 223) ID#341189:
Thanks zeke. 223, I'm on the run. Interesting question. bbtomorrow.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:53
Ted ('March MADness'..................................*go Gold*....and ABX(you dog you)arf arf) ID#330175:
First time since dinner time ( yesterday ) that I have been able ( ? ) to post---first time I've been able to access the internet @ all actually ( I love MY ISP ) ---no one ( since last night ) answers the 1-888# ( hmmmmmmm ) ---Most would become MAD at such goings-on but not MOI ( not the type ta fly off the handle....eh..~~~~~good ta be back in 'cyber-SPACE'~~~~~~~

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:52
robnoel__A (oris,shame on your boss for questioning the logic,by the way the Swiss can not sell thier gold ) ID#411112:
gold reserves,with out a public referendum,having lived there I can tell you the Swiss people will not agree to that,I always praise folks when they take the view that when everybody says ZIG we ZAG.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:51
chas (Oris re Br Rabbit) ID#342282:
This CB market is definitely not under the SEC. Please don't throw me in de briar patch Rabbit to the fox.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:48
themissinglink (M1,M2,M3) ID#373403:
Can someone please post links to these figures on the internet. Thanks.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:44
DBog (Help Wanted) ID#267298:
Would anyone care to go out on a limb and offer their opinion as to the
future of ARIZONA STAR RESOURCES, If POG remains low for
another year or two? Any other comments regarding AZS would be
greatly appreciated. Anyone else contemplating buying some at its present price of I think C$ 1.60 ? I believe this is very close to its 52 week low.

TIA


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:43
zeke (Ersel--FCX) ID#25255:
Which then is the best part of the FCX group for short vs long term investment? I have FCXPRA; would like more of the group.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:41
oris (Neophyte ) ID#238422:
If English are trying to talk the price of gold down,
they are buying indeed...My boss, who is very good in
finances and stuff like this, when heard first time
that Swiss stated that they gonna sell a lot o gold,
said Hmmm, these guys are probably buying....May be
Swiss wanted to sell some gold, they got a lot of it,
but may be they were hired guns for the other buyers?



Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:38
RJ (..... Weather effects of El Nino on California Citrus Crops .....) ID#411259:

Sad to report that El Nino has effectively destroyed the RJ lime crop for 1998. Tender little lime blossoms bravely held on through wind and rain, but the cumulative effects have taken their toll. I expect the spring lime crop will be off by 80%. Where do we trade those lime options?


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:38
Ersel (@2BRO...) ID#228283:

Bought this company for my mother a week ago. The fundamentals and outlook haven't changed except S&P rating. Think about two things:
1.Comany is sound.

2.It is in the interest of ( para.7. of your URL ) Indonesia ( Suharto ) to keep the company there not only for income but credibility,IMO.

Besides, do you trust S&P for ratings when back in 1981-82 they were still carrying Washington Power ( whoops bonds ) as AA the day before the bonds went belly up? Stay chilly !!!

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:34
RJ (..... Movie Review .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Primary Colors is a must see for Clinton haters and lovers alike. The performances are superb; chief among are Kathy Bates as a dirt researcher and Billy Bob Thorton as a James Carvelle type strategic operative. is fantastic. Travolta's Jack Stanton is an effective impression of Clinton and he manages to avoid a copycat impression and strike a more human cord than BC.

I count myself among those who have slight regard for Bill Clinton, and even less for his bride; But I think the reason that BC is so popular is that he truly does seem to care. Not many politicians can say, I feel your pain and pull it off. The man reeks of sincerity and, as Spencer Tracy advised a young Burt Reynolds, You have to be sincere, if you can fake that, the rest is easy.

Go see the movie and GO GOLD………


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:33
chas (Donald re your 8:42 today) ID#342282:
It sounds great. Also if anybody is interested, The Gold Prospectors Assoc. is another source of outdoor gold panning recovery. 800 233 2207.
They have properties all across the country from Maine to Ca. and alaska to Ga. You keep all you can get. Great bunch of guys, oldtimers and young'uns. This is a year round outfit.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:32
robnoel__A (Mike Sheller,granted,many do view gold as an investment,and compared to stocks gold sucks,) ID#411112:
Copyright © 1998 robnoel__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

and for those who trade futures and options
have been handed there heads on a silver
platter,as a old trader 95% of folks who
trade on paper lose money,Vegas has better
odds,the only person I know who turned
$1000.00 into a $100.OOO.OO IS HILLARY,a
250,000,000 to one chance.Just like most
Conservatives today they used to be Liberals
I used to be paper mullet,there is an inside
joke we physical dealers have,the great thing
about having clients who take possession,as
opposed to when we traded on paper,is that
our clients life span has increased,on paper
it takes minutes to lose all your clients
money with physical it takes a lot longer to
lose.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:28
tolerant1 (Actually it is Demopolis,) ID#31868:
Alabama where l'il Jimmy Rodgers is from.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:27
SDRer__A (Gold and Defacto Defaults) ID#286249:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

As you refocus the thought aperture, center on this: central banks gold “sales” have constituted a propaganda ploy. When Belgium made her first “sale” her debt to GDP stood at and eyebrow raising 167%. Only one paper reported accurately what the proceeds of this “sale” accomplished. In a throw-a-way last line to a side-bar story, the Financial Times noted, “the proceeds were used to pay-down public debt.”

The CBs need gold. The propaganda war is to convince the serfs that
they not only don't need gold, but that it is not worth holding. The Pricers declare, It earns nothing! Which costs you money!


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:26
Avalon (test; had major computer problems) ID#254269:
test; had major computer problems.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:24
oris (ANOTHER) ID#238422:
Copyright © 1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Another, many things that you said seem to be out of
the real world but some of your thoughts are very
interesting. For example, after learning ( from Allen ) that
Belgium sold 299 tonns of gold above current market price, I
concluded that what we've seen so far was indeed the
planned redistribution of gold reserves between different
countries. The next logical step should be some revaluation
of the gold ( you said about revaluation of gold, but your
earlier numbers seem to be unrealistic, particularly
considering current situation with oil price ) . Recently, you
lowered these numbers to $320-360. I think it is closer
to the reality. At the end of 1997 I thought POG may
go up to $350 for this year.

Anyway, revaluation of gold price will happen after
EURO is in place, and I now think that $330 will be
the price for 1998 ( at the end of 1998 ) Any thoughts?



Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:21
chas (JTF re your 00:51) ID#342282:
WOW!! I'll get into later. You can into Phil Callahan at Acres USA--800 355 5313. You won't regret it. BBL and THANX

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:16
2BR02B? (@FCX) ID#266105:


A more legible view of FCX debt rating cuts.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/s_p_cuts_f_1.html

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:15
Neophyte (Belgium reiterates gold sold to other CB's - and ANOTHER) ID#390249:
Copyright © 1998 Neophyte/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Maybe Another is right that the CB's don't want gold to go lower. The attached article is interesting in that Belgium is taking great pains to insist its gold went to other CB's - they're no longer talking the price down!

The only one who continues to try to talk it down is England and I can't help but think they're buying. They have very little gold reserves and if they are to join the ECB they most likely will have to increase their holdings.

http://www.infoseek.com/Content?arn=a0303LBY164reulb-19980321&qt=%2Bbelgium+%2Bgold&col=NX&kt=A&ak=allnews

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:14
OLD GOLD (Pm mutual funds) ID#238295:
Bill El Zabub: I play strictly through PM mutual funds.

BTW, nobody should underestimate the significance of Farrakhan's pro-gold comments. The gold market is going to explode at some point. Considering the trillions of dollars of hot money floating around the globe, even the $40 billion or so of CB sales projected by Andy Smith could be absorbed overnight if serious money joins the bull camp.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:12
223 (Carl, a question just for the sake of discussion) ID#26669:
Copyright © 1998 223/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/g/S/SWC.html
http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/g/A/ABX.html

Suppose we take the case of ABX as being a stock in a depressed market sector and the case of SWC as being that of a stock in a market sector which has recently bottomed and is now getting bullish. When we compare these stocks we see that ABX is closer to its 52 week bottom and SWC closer to its 52 week top. I'll ignore most of the individual stock's primary attributes except for the one: ABX gives a dividend but SWC doesn't. You're familiar with the gold and PGM industries as being separate and distinct. SWC is in an industry with less negative government control, indeed it depends upon government regulation for its product's value. But it also depends upon the chaos of the Russian government for its product prices. If you were given the choice of buying a hundred shares of one or 100 shares of the other which would you choose and why?

This isn't such a rhetorical question as it sounds, for I've been weighing newly aquired downside risk in my SWC recently. I don't think that even a fundamental player can really risk ignoring short term market factors lest he risk taking a bath in them like so many of us did last winter.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:08
2BR02B? (@FCX) ID#266105:
Copyright © 1998 2BR02B?/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved


Standard & Poors recently cut their ratings on
Freeport-McMoran debt across the board:


To From
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.
Corporate credit rating B+ BB-
Senior unsecured debt B B+
Subordinated shelf ( preliminary rtg ) B- B
Preferred stock B- B
Preference stock shelf ( preliminary ) B- B
ALatief Freeport Finance Co. B.V. ( P.T. )
Senior unsecured debt* B B+



Holding some silver denominated PrD and gold backed PrB
I'm watching. PrB has traded about $50 under spot, with Indonesian
probs where the majority of their operations and reserves are,
PrB is trading at around $200/oz, 5.9% yield, payed in the value
of an ounce of gold in August, 2003. The spread to spot has increased
to $100, I'm pondering buy, sell, hold.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:07
chas (Nick@C re your 5:31) ID#342282:
You got it. If you feel like it , give me a shot about CLN VancSE. Email is cdevoto@conninc.com Many thanx

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:06
Bill El Zebub (@ OLD GOLD...are you a silver ,platinum, palladium man?) ID#261352:
*

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 12:03
Bill El Zebub (Can the PPT play this market as planned correction and advancement via) ID#261352:
sector rotation while they wait for Asia to come back.Can they engineer a bull to take care of the Boomers?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 11:59
Allen(USA) (ANOTHER(THOUGHTS!)) ID#255190:
I will be checking in on the hour to see if our conversation has begun. I've got work to do on my place so can not be 'hanging out' all day, OK? Thanks!

It seems that some of those who have posted for you have not conveyed your thoughts as you would have done.

Let's talk.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 11:57
RJ (..... Regarding Entropy .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

The formation of life may appear to violate the law entropy. Looking deeper into the highly ordered construct of a human we find:

We all need food to eat. In the cultivation, harvesting, transportation, and ingestion of food, an enormous amount of energy is expended. While the end product ( the food ) may appear more ordered than its constituent components, overall entropy increases by merit of the energy expended in production. This is a vastly oversimplified approach, but it is mathematically sound - just don't ask me to do the math.

Beyond food, the mark humankind has put on the earth has forever changed this little ball-o-blue we ride around the sun in. While building a skyscraper or a freeway appears as if unordered components are assembled in a more ordered state. I submit that the components were laying in a natural state of higher order that must be diminished once a component is removed from it native environment. The additional energy expended to transport, refine, mill, or distill, increases entropy in the universe. Nowhere in the observable universe, does the law of entropy appear to be violated.

To put this whole thing on subject:

An ounce-o-gold may reside within a ton of ore. The production of that highly ordered and refined ounce, increases entropy even though the end result is a highly ordered ounce-o-gold. There seems to be no escape from entropy.

PS -

Steven Hawking suggests that it is entropy that prevents time travel to the past. Apart from the obvious paradoxes, travel to the past seems to violate the law of entropy. This may not exclude the possibility of traveling to the future, but entropy would demand that such a trip taken would be a one way ticket. To return to the past, one once again runs into an entropy violation.


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 11:55
chas (Prometheus re Drudge) ID#342282:
Thanx a lot - I'm back on now

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 11:53
OLD GOLD (1987, 1998) ID#238295:
Bill El Zebub: Earning s don't matter as long as liquidiy is plentiful? That's what they said in 1987.

Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 11:51
zeke (Carl) ID#25255:
Thank you for your excellent but simple analysis without trying to impress. Why not buy FCXPRA and while getting about the same goods you also receive 8% yield? Keep the level head. Some are impressed.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 11:44
Mike Sheller (RJ, Platinum, Gold) ID#347447:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
RJ's simple put powerfully kogent kitco komment of the week: Platinum is not only 20 times rarer than gold ( I was always told 15, but who's counting? ) but it GETS USED UP, whereas most mined gold is always HELD in some form or another. A marketable, tradeable substance usually gets dumped on the market at the two cycle extremes of price variability. At the top, when it is perceived that the price will not appreciate much more, and is worth cashing in because held stores of the stuff will now bring maximum cash return ( ie: people selling the family silver at $50 per ounce ) , OR at the bottom, when dumping occurs because it is felt that the substance has no future and will remain low or lower, and that the cash value it still retains is better put to other, more profitable or alluring uses. It does not challenge the mind to ascertain at which end of the cycle wave channel we are at present. The volatility and upward bias of the white precious metals ( ie: silver, and the other white metal, pork...er...platinum ) bespeak supply and demand concerns in the PM complex. This will be a nice platform in place when the specific factors affecting the gold bear come into adjustment. I still say that gold will not rise until interest rates begin to clearly do so. Friday's Utility Average jump is either a last gasp orgasm for low rates, or the start of a new era. I think by late April, or May, the Utes will be leaning back smoking a ciggie, asking the investing public Was it good for you?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 11:44
Bill El Zebub (CNBC talking head commented last week *this market isn't about valuation) ID#261352:
it's about momentum...maybe 40 times earnings could be 80 times
earnings in the years ahead*...Nuts or what?
Thanks Mike Sheller for feedback.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 11:43
Carl (All I know - Gold investments are cheap) ID#341189:
Copyright © 1998 Carl/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I can't keep all the information avaiable here and elsewhere in front of my mind, so I have to make decisions on rather simple facts. For $19, I can buy 1 share of ABX which represents about $38 of proven gold in the ground at present prices. They will get more than the present price and their cost of production is about half the present price, so I'm getting at least $19 worth of processed gold for $19 and the company for free. I can also buy $0.78 worth of earnings by buying $19 worth of an average S&P 500 stock. If, and a big if, those earnings grow at an annual rate of 6% over the next 10 years, I'm buying roughly $11 in earnings over 10 years. I can buy $19 worth of gold for $19. If gold goes up in dollar terms at a rate of 6% per year ( to $519 ) , I'm buying $15 worth of appreciation in gold price over 10 years. Simple minded person that I am, I'm buying gold and gold stocks.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 11:32
OLD GOLD (Louis Farrakhan, IMF) ID#238295:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Nation of islam leader Louis Farrakhan -- perhaps the most widely respected black American leader internationally -- seems to have become a goldbug. Considering his close ties with many Moslem regimes, I suspect there are quite a few powerful people in these circles who share his views.

In a recent speech Farrakhan argued that if the Moslem world decided to tie their currencies to gold.... they could probably break the back of these world serpents.” ( The US, the IMF, and international Zionism ) Perhaps Another is not so crazy after all. And perhaps Farrakhan is now pro-gold because most of the Jewish and WASP establishments are quite anti-gold.

In a recent article Harvard economist Jeffrey Sachs confirms that the IMf is essentially a tool of the US Treasury. To quote Mr. Sachs ... The IMF's power rests on three bases. Most importantly, the IMF is the instrument by which the US Treasury intervenes in developing countries.”

So when people wonder why there is such hostility to the US and IMF in many foreign lands, remember this quotation.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 11:29
Mike Sheller (robnoel) ID#347447:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Your advice is sound, but I would argue that gold indeed IS an investment, like an investment in anything, when one deems it to be undervalued, or at the extreme of a cycle. It is a marvelous investment on the long side after it has fallen into a bottom, and it is a marvelous investment on the short side after it has spiked at the end of a long bull move. Both bullion and shares will bring hefty returns to the investor and speculator who is RIGHT. If anything, the normal medium to longterm cyclical fluctuations of the metal as a commodity, for whatever the reasons, offer far steadier and ever present potential for capital gains as a time to time investment than the sporadic, and rare, crisis opportunities for monster killings. Just like oil drilling stocks, sugar prices, real estate, etc, etc. IMVHO

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 11:27
SDRer__A ( A Refocus...EMU, Gold and Defacto Defaults) ID#286250:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

On occasion, fate presents an historical nano-second when governments, with very different agendas, find a common strategic tactic that well serves their differing goals. We are observing such a felicitous second of time.

European Monetary Union is about two complementary--if separate-- goals: putting “Paid” to the tyranny of the USD regime and relieving what has become the intolerable stress of overwhelming debt.

One need look no further than Germany and France to see the reality of ‘intolerable debt burdens’. To continue the present welfare states with aging populations ( which statistically claim more resources from state programs ) and still service debt accumulated over the past years is--quite frankly--impossible. The Savior Euro will, for example in German, cut DM denominated debt in half.

It is the “New Paradigm” defacto default.

What does this have to do with gold? The major--though not discussed--fear in Europe is ‘scared money’. As citizens ‘Euro awareness’ level rises, they seek to protect savings. Perhaps you too, have read that, if you are German, e.g., as so careless as to leave foreign bank statements on the dashboard of your parked car, you may find a government functionary on your doorstep, brimming with embarrassing questions.

From the European fortress, it was/is imperative that gold appear less a safe haven. Because, viewed as a the traditional “safety hedge” it is the threat of death to the Euro.

bbl--with the rest of the story--stop groaning! {:- )

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 11:21
Mike Sheller (223, Snowball) ID#347447:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Flint Knapping! NOW you're talking! Actually, I was a fishing addict throughout my teens and early twenties. These days I'm an old softie. I went from catching and eating em' to just cathing em' n' letting them go, to just looking longingly at the water figuring where I'd cast that popper if I was actually going to fish. Every thing you say about the art is true. God deducts from man's alotted time those hours spent fishing.

As for investing in MacDonald's, when I was in basic training in the Army in '65, a barracks mate was this goofy, roly poly guy from Massachusetts who was always telling me about his job at this burger joint called MacDonald's, and his opportunity to be a manager and a shareholder when he got out of the Army. He already started buying shares, and I remember all I could think ( in those days I knew or cared little about markets, etc ) was this poor schnook. This sophisticated New Yorker looked down his nose at this boy. A burger future! Yeah, Right. How pathetic.
I think of him every so often. It makes me as humble as some of the ones that got away .

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 11:10
223 (Lan Man which of the two are you talking about? 100 day or 200 day?) ID#26669:
http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:58
Lan Man (@An Observation) ID#320108:
In reviewing the weekly commentary at the Privateer,

I noticed that the Momentum indicator located under

the Weekly Bar Chart has turned positive. Except for

a blip on the indicator last Oct., it has remained

negative for the past 15 months.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:54
robnoel__A (Before I head out to enjoy the summer sun it's going to be in the 80's today) ID#411112:
Copyright © 1998 robnoel__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Let me say,there is no good in trying to predict when to buy or sell goldif you feel that the price is fair value buy it....if it falls it then becomes a bargain,buy more,gold is not an investment it is insurance,against bad things happening tomorrow....why buy now when everybody is watching the DOW,because when people see through the perception of the dollars purchasing power and flock to the currency of last resort,you won't be able to BUY ANY GOLD,if the supply is as tight as it is right now and I refer to numismatics and some bullion coins i.e CML,fraction gold,think of what the premium you will pay,the NY spot market means nothing,gold could be $100,if you can't get it what good is the price, Example 1/10 KRands there is no discount there because of demand they sell for the same premium as US Eagles,raw Saints in BU are tough to get they now sell for the same price as certified MS61 because we can't get any MS 61/62's anymore, the demand for physical gold is not been seen in the NY spot market,be cafefull out there.no one can predict the future,panics come from two areas fear and greed......

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:53
Snowball ((@WSF)) ID#234218:
Copyright © 1998 Snowball/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
223 and Mike both gave you excellent advise. ( IMHO ) However, the fact that at your stage in life you are thinking, planning and educating yourself as to your options is one of the best investments you'll make. Thoughtful,regular and diversified investments will win the game in the long run. I only wish I had done more of it sooner.

From the sounds of your post, you're well on your way. The only thing I would add is DON'T be embarrassed about investing in gold. People said McDonald's, Microsoft, and aviation were bad investments at one time too! I guarantee you'll never see a $400.00/oz Big Mac. Good luck!

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:51
223 (Mike Sheller re fishing) ID#26669:
Fishing. You learn a lot fishing. If you're in the part of your life where you have small children you also teach a lot. Just the lesson in sitting still and quietly waiting is worth the price of admission. 'sides, fishing is one of the list of approved activities for hunter/gatherers, right next to weaving, basketmaking and flint knapping.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:50
Suspicious (Japan deregulation ?) ID#287312:
Can anyone inform us on exactly what the deregulations in Japan as of April 1, 1998 amount too ? What are the changes ?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:48
223 (WSF second thoughts) ID#26669:
Of course there are worse things than gold. I left out the part about my tiny timber farm and microscopic oil patch, neither of which did particularly well. One taught and the other reenforced the lesson that brokers, contractors and middlemen make a lot more money than you'd guess. IMHO

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:46
Mike Sheller (WSF) ID#347447:
When I say if you own shares, add to them as well every few months I mean GOLD SHARES.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:42
SDRer__A (How goes the new empire? Quite well, thank you. Slow and Steady does it...) ID#288157:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Economic prospects promising: WB official
by Bing Lan

CHINA's economic prospects are promising, a world leading economist said.

Temporary product oversupply in the country does not necessarily mean a limited development space, Joseph Stiglitz, chief economist of the World Bank, said last week at a development forum in Manila.

The relatively low income of the country can easily spell enormous room for further economic progress, he said.

China's per capita gross national product ( GNP ) was US$725 last year, indicating it is still a low-income country. The upper limit of that classification, according to the latest World Bank standard, is US$765.

Ample market supply and slack domestic spending in China have prompted worries on the vitality of the country's economy, but Stiglitz quickly dismissed them.

He spoke highly of China's economic achievements in the past two decades, saying the authorities were wise in adopting flexible policies and a gradual manner in the country's economic reforms.
http://www.chinaeco.com/frame.htm

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:37
Mike Sheller (223) ID#347447:
Fishing?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:34
Mike Sheller (WSF) ID#347447:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Here is the encouragement you need: I only wish that when I was at the first house ( actually an apartment in those days ) first child stage of MY life I had the discipline to follow a REGULAR investment plan in what I believed. My son was born in 1971, I turned bullish on gold in '72, and bought silver all at once in '75 or '76 ( I forgot which by now ) . PATIENCE and a steady plan in these big cycles is needed. I cannot urge you enough to take advantage of your perspective, your youth, and the immense disfavor in which gold is held, and steadily buy bullion coins in a reasonable, dollar cost averaging way, like a simple savings plan. If you own shares, add to them each few months as well. Save some cash too. Simply, prudently, but STEADILY. And you will find, in a handful of years, that you did the right thing at the right time, and you were very conservative to boot. You will be surprised at what you will have accomplished, and avoided, when the DOW is several thousand points lower and gold several thousand dollars higher. Best of luck to you and your family.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:31
223 (WSF thoughts, but not what you want to hear.) ID#26669:
Copyright © 1998 223/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Disclaimer: I'm not an investment advisor. My discussion applies only to my own life situation and is not meant to be construed to be advice for you. IMHO

When I was roughly at the stage of life as you my primary investment was in education. I spent lots and lots of money learning things, working to get bigger and better diplomas which would allow me to get bigger and better jobs. I also spent a portion of money getting unofficial education, learning the basics of a variety of real life skills such as metalworking, bricklaying, airplane flying, newspaper writing, scuba diving, fishing, computer programming, et cetera. The formal education was so I could survive and prevail in a good job market but the other was a backup in case the other failed or society falled around me. Other investments were in tools of my trade, a good house, a working car, good health insurance, a stable marriage. IMHO

In the meantime I socked away a little bit of precious metal here and there during market dips, more often than not in the form of wearable jewelry. I didn't trust stocks or my ability to pick them for any money I could anticipate needing within 10 years. For this I chose bonds, starting with US savings bonds. IMHO

It was only later that I started dabbling with the stock market, using only throw away money and anticipating that even on losing years I could turn the loss into tax deductions. I learned about Kitco last year so have incorporated it into my present hobby, learning more about the market. IMHO

But even though I'm one of the most junior and least wealthy of the posters I could probably match a good portion of your annual salary out of the money I anticipate getting back on end of year tax losses this last bad year. If I were less well off I'd go back to an earlier stage of my own investment cycle and not press my luck getting in over my head. IMHO

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:27
SDRer__A (Now HERE'S a novel appreciation of national currency ) ID#288157:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Economic Times of India
Stable rupee no hurdle to export growth, says FM
Our New Delhi Bureau
NEW DELHI 20 MARCH
FINANCE minister Yashwant Sinha today said the government would not
depend excessively on a depreciating rupee as a tool to boost exports.

He said the new government wanted a stable rupee and did not want a run on the currency like in SouthEast Asia.

`The value of the currency is just one input in the total export effort. An export thrust doesn't mean continous devaluation,'' Mr Sinha said. He was responding to a poser on whether the rupee would be used as a tool to stem the decline in exports.
http://www.economictimes.com/today/21econ2.htm

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:22
MoReGoLd (@THOUGHTS!) ID#348129:
I'll Give ANOTHER another week. I don't beleive these AU levels will hold, either way........

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:12
223 (Thoughts on Another) ID#26669:
Copyright © 1998 223/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Well, I'm still not as infatuated with Another as some of you and not as damning as others but what he said last night seems to have a ring of truth. At least when he describes that the facts are not necessarily a consensus or vote of the ( analysts/participants/voters/plebiscate ) . I would think that in a world of possibilities as to the actual facts those who are more informed would be more likely to approximate congruent opinions. IMHO

S/He may have a point about a higher trading range for gold; there seems to be a resistance level around $340 if I recall last Spring very well. And I can concede that CB's who own a zillion ounces might want their zillion to be multiplied by $340 more than by $300. That principle of desire applies more to us little anchovies; the big sharks swim to a different drum. I don't think we should not anthropomorphasize the CBs any more than we should assume that cats and dogs think like us. IMHO

I'm still letting his comments on his country percolate a litte bit. Is he talking about one of the Persian Gulf states or Helvetia or Thailand? ( One of my pet theories being that he is really the King of Thailand ) ? IMHO


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:12
WSF (Needing some encouragement) ID#188244:
-
I last posted here in December, how many hundreds of Dow points ago? I've been spending my time at freerepublic, hating Clintoon as much as I can. So I'm back for some encouragement. I hit a low point yesterday while talking ( socially ) to an investment advisor. After stating my case for being a bear, he asked me how I was invested. I was embarrassed to say gold ( which is really just a small part of my small savings anyway- I'm at the first house/first child stage of life )

I've missed a lot of the talk here, and I'm sure the Belgian sale has been discussed, but I can't believe that the proceeds of that sale will only pay 1% of their debt. Anyone else amazed as well?

Donald- glad to see you are still here posting as always. Any fundamental changes I should know of, or are things just that much more absurd than they already were months ago?


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:07
SDRer__A (Sold dollars and rapped knuckles--Friday was an 'interesting' day!) ID#288157:

US called on to tone down its `megaphone diplomacy'
Annoyed with America's high-profile prescriptions for curing
Japan's economic woes, Tokyo warned Washington on Friday that
``megaphone diplomacy'' could be counter-productive.
http://www.hkstandard.com/online/finance/001/features/features.htm

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:02
SDRer__A (In a world dominated by FIFO, the 'fate' of shipping companies is of interest...) ID#288157:
Hong Kong Business Standard Sat Mar 21 1998
Tung family-run Orient battered by Asian storm

Net profit at shipping company Orient Overseas ( International )
Limited ( OOIL ) dropped a massive 77.7 per cent last year as the
company was hit by tougher competition.
http://www.hkstandard.com/online/finance/001/hksfin.htm

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 10:00
Lock&Lode (@Donald--your 06:22 Recent 30% return in the stock market) ID#266110:
As noted in the article, it says that historical returns average 10% yearly. Doesn't it stand to reason that if we've seen 30% returns for the past several years, it's soon going to be time for negative territory in order to bring us in line with the 10% average?

If this is the case, then we can see either -20% or -50% returns in order to bring us into balance. This says to me that PMs will be the benficiaries. Keep the faith all !!!

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 09:59
Snowball ((@Mike Sheller) Iffin' your still out there) ID#234218:
Got knocked offline last night and just got back. Just to let you know, absolutely no offense taken. Except for that guy and his sister everyone's cool.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 09:59
robnoel__A (Bart,sorry,I left out a word, if they DONT want a coin) ID#411112:


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 09:46
SDRer__A (Donald--how perceptions change...) ID#288157:
Thursday's FT, Lex Column-- big, bold headline:
REDOUBTABLE Renminbi.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 09:43
robnoel__A (Bart,on your 2 points 1)Mounties may not be for everyone,thats not the point,if they want a coin ) ID#411112:

and still want to getgreat enjoyment,education and a little political banter from this page then step up to the plate and send a check for what you think it's worth,I for one,as I said before in all the years of lurking/posting I have gained a lot from the folks here even though it resembles a disfunctinal family at times.
On your second point of calling this a CHAT ROOM sorry I got lazy spell check was not working so rather than type a gold and silver discussion group I went for the short phrase,something I have learnt in America how to butcher the English language

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 09:42
SDRer__A (New BOJ head not so 'accommodating'?) ID#288157:
FT Sat Mar 21 1998
Currencies and money: Bank of Japan sells dollar
Despite talk that the Bank of Japan had sold dollars in the market, the US currency ended the week above ¥130 against the yen.Traders disputed
whether the bank had intervened against the strong dollar in Asian trading yesterday. Any move would be seen as an immediate warning from the bank's new governor, Masaru Hayami. He said yesterday that excessive foreign exchange moves would correct themselves
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q3e5fa.htm

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 09:34
Silverbaron (chas From yesterday's request) ID#288295:

http://www.drudgereport.com

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 09:28
ForkLift__A (ForkLift(Suspicious)) ID#324266:
I've been thinking about Rangy in terms of potential huge upside also, but the economic situation in SA is such a mystery to me that I hesitate to take action.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 09:15
(Markus) ID#192233:
Do you consider M1 and M3 figures to be an expression of overall debt?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 09:08
Suspicious (RANGY / Randgold) ID#287312:
On April 8,1997 this stock was selling at $8.25 with gold on that date at $3.49. Today ( RANGY ) is 1-1/16. Could this mean that if gold returns to only $3.49 ( RANGY ) would gain over 700% back to $8.25 per share. Maybe

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 08:56
Mike Sheller (Grant) ID#347447:
Better said, but with fewer words.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 08:51
Donald__A (China will defend the HK dollar and will not devalue mainland currency) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980319/china_curr_1.html

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 08:48
Donald__A (Corrected Smeeton interview. Error of 1,100 tons of gold) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980319/markets_bu_2.html

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 08:42
Donald__A (Something for Calif. goldbug with kids to do this weekend and next) ID#26793:
http://www.latimes.com:80/CNS_DAYS/980319/t000026741.html

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 08:38
ROR (Silver) ID#35767:
Wake the hell up Ted I hpoe ya dont have another casino hangover.

Where are the Kitco lease rates.

Ted,I liked your post re the Canadian provinces. Do you do the states?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 08:35
OLD GOLD (market top?) ID#238295:
JP: This move is going to end shortly, but with small caps lagging badly, I don't think we are yet at the final top. Dow probably will drop 500 points or so, then make another strong run. And if samll caps take off as well, that probably will be the final leg up.

Bart: The debate I really want to see is Andy Smith verus Frank Veneroso.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 08:33
STUDIO.R (@Big Thinkers....maybe Woody would've been proud......) ID#288369:
Copyright © 1998 STUDIO.R All rights reserved
IT'S ALL THE SAME
written be Ronald David James and Pat Guthrie Payne
copyright 1996

The wind blows hot and dry 'cross the plain
The folks have left, they've all caught the train
Well I guess I'll see the last one to go
But wherever they go, it's all the same
It's all the same

I recall Mom and Dad dancin' in the town
Folks would join in, they'd come from miles around
But the music stopped when the dust blew in
Wish I could hear that music again
Hear that music again

Well it seems that trains..they run both ways
And I don't recognize these faces today
And I don't listen to what they have to say
'Cause I've heard it before...and it's all the same
It's all the same

No welcome back to the land of your birth
How much are you willin' to pay for red earth?
Well that ain't what I consider is enough
That ain't what it's worth...no
That ain't what it's worth

And I forgot whatever your name was...cause
Wherever you go...you're the same...
All the same.

the end.

( one of these days, I'll get a .wav file on this stuff...and Bart willin'...I'll let ol' Pat Guthrie sing for ya'...he's da' man. )

See ya' next week.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 08:22
IDT (Fractals and investing) ID#228128:
Copyright © 1998 IDT/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
JTF: there is a software called Investors Dream that uses chaos theory for market analysis. You can download a free demo copy from the Avid Trader site. the demo truncates the analysis so that you can't look at current markets. I think they want something on the order of $1200 to register the software so that you can use it real time. Try this site http://www.profitunity.com I think that should allow you to circumvent the Avid site and will allow you to go straight to the site. I have played with the software some and even tried to get it to stop truncating the data by lieing to my computer about what correct date and stacking phoney data on top of my data set to compensate for the number of days that are truncated. It didn't work. The software uses what it call a propriatary fractal signal and strange attractors based on Fibonacci series as two of five dimensions that they use in making trading decisions. I looked at some gold data and the software at the time had a long position if gold moved over 305 and a short position whose dollar value I can't remember. Gold came close but did not exceed 305 and the short position would have been filled. Good advice for the market behavior over the past 1 1/2 months. So, maybe there is something to the software.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 08:18
grant (Jeez Mike, you're makin' my head hurt, but well said.) ID#433422:
I'd like to point out that randomness, entropy, chaos, and order are concepts based on a perspective, generally defined by Man, not the Supreme.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 07:55
Mike Sheller (JTF, Aurator, other BIG thinkers...) ID#347447:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
JTF, you said: My guess is that there is little in this universe more precious than intelligent life -- arguably the most highly ordered state of existence in the universe. Whereas aurator audaciously envisioned the spark within man forging order and progress out of a great chaos of matter and forces that wished only to implode and settle like some cosmic potato on some metaphysical couch. Verily methinks the audacious one has the better part. For the error is to think that the intelligent life form is the creator, or manufacturer of intelligence per se ( ie: it is the brain which creates thought ) . It is NOT. The intelligence had to pre-exist to create the FORM which BEARS it ( Ie: the brain is the ORGAN of thought, but thought does not depend on a mass of pulp for it to exist and function in all things ) . Intelligence is what had to create the body and its marvelous structures, which EXPRESS it. The universe, PHYSICALLY, is a vast leggo set of matter units at varying degrees of progression that, bereft of consciousness, intelligence, thought, will, and a sense of form, would fall to the great cosmic carpet like a pile of dead sand. The units, structures, and beings are animated and ordered by Intelligence. By Will. By CONSCIOUSNESS. By Reason ( Law ) . Without THOSE things, the units of matter themselves would never have been conceived and carved from NO THING ( true space is NO THING. ( As in the biblical In the beginning, the earth was dark and VOID - in Hebrew the word is Ayin ) These abstract, metaphysical essences, these facts of the unmanifest, ARE what man tries to conceive of as God. It is clear that without any one of those qualities, certainly not measurable by physical science, God would be a blithering idiot. Thus, the QUALITIES are the highest that man can conceive, and until man understands these things, he will not awaken to the GOD that he is, as these things are also within HIM. Answers will be more satisfying when science reverses its thinking and pursues the thought that it is not the individuated being which creates intelligence, but intelligencve which creates all things. This is not a physical property of existence, or, for that matter, istence - the UNMANIFEST. Looking for ALL the answers in the physical world is, ultimately, a cosmic dead end. Sometimes a little metaphysics paves the way. Happy Aries!


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 06:40
aurator (Vernal Equinox coming down--- ) ID#257148:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Has it been an hour since the last post from bottomsniffer@candelicious?

Trouble is, Nicobrevin, that noone smells a bottom like you.

I guess it comes from living with a pair of Rottwielers, eh?


Do you know jim Morrison's Blood in the Streets? It's up to my elbows.

How many hundred people have lurked and not posted out of the very reasonable fear that they believe they have nothing to contribute?

Nicotino, I told ya, did I how hard it was to make my first post? And how i thought I had nothing to contribute , then I marshalled my forces, girded my loins ( or loinettes ) and started with just one post. D'Ju no wot? WHen I arrived here I knew naff all about the WWW, and I thought i knew a lot about precious, hence my pretentious handle. I have learned so much, so much here I just sometimes want to burst with thanks for everyone's kindnesses. I have learned from all. Most of all, I have learned when I have posted what little I know.


some neighbourhood


lickety-split anyone?

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 06:22
Donald__A (Investors expect to earn 17.4% per year for the next decade (down from 34%?) ID#26793:
http://my.excite.com:80/news/bw/980318/opinion-research

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 06:07
Donald__A (Starting the day with good news on gold for a change) ID#26793:
Copyright © 1998 Donald__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
TAXPAYER SEARCHES FOR POT OF GOLD

Believing he could strike it rich quick, one taxpayer spent over $200,000 in search of gold in
abandoned mines and treasures on sunken Spanish galleons. Unfortunately, he found only a few gold
coins. However, he decided to turn to the IRS for a tax deduction, claiming $200,000 in losses. The
IRS denied the deduction, claiming that his search for treasure was a hobby and not a business.
However, the Tax Court disagreed and ruled in the taxpayer's favor, stating that, despite his losses,
the taxpayer had a valid profit motive.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 05:31
Nick@C (Smells like a bottom!!) ID#393224:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
When gold goes up $50 an oz., I'm sure I won't be able to get on this site, because all the I-told-you-so'er's will be hogging the e-waves. It is so dead around here that we must be at or very near a bottom!!

I invest in lots of penny dreadfuls. According to the snake oil salesman in the following URL, only 3% of people make money on P.D.s. I am happy to be in that group. Probably because I don't believe anything I read and I do the opposite of what any sensible person would do. ANYTHING you read in the news or on KITCO etc. was known by 'OTHERS' before you. When you read about it, it is usually the time to sell!! You've all heard about the 'buy the rumour, sell the news' -- well, it is soooooooo true.

There are lots of smarter and quicker guys/gals than you out there---sooooo, I am gonna let you in on a little secret. Ignore everything you hear, and watch just two things--1 ) price and 2 ) volume.

Check the volumes of penny dreadfuls about an hour into the trading day. If a stock is going UP on volume--check out it's chart ( If you haven't studied charting--you shouldn't be investing at all. Start out with Edwards/McGee and go from there ) . If the stock is coming off a support level--jump in with the heavy volume. Put a stop-loss in just below the support level. Do NOT EVER change that stop-loss. SELL and take your loss if the price goes against you. I won't tell you when to sell ( on a gain ) --as I haven't figured that one out yet. I have bought shares at 10 cents--sold at 20 cents--then watched them go to 5 dollars. You could have bought Bre-X at 4 cents and sold at $$286!!!!!!! I would have been out at 8 cents and committed Hara-Kiri at a buck and a half!! At least I wouldn't have had to see my 'investment' multiply by 7150 x. Also remember that they have now gone to zero!! Make sure you are one of the 'investors' in the Bahamas and not the funny farm.

Watch the volume!!! SOMEBODY knows SUMPTHIN'. Only buy when they're going up--unless you have the skills of a DA, RJ or APH and can pick the support levels. SELL TOO EARLY!! You won't go broke taking a profit. Don't get greedy. Leave that to Michael Douglas!!

Volume--Price. Easy. Buy up. Sell down. Easy. 3% do it right. You other 97% buy a DOW Mutual Fund--30% a year to infinity--no sweat!!





http://www.goodbytes.com/pennygold/bre-x.html

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 05:17
Roebear (aurator and JTF) ID#412172:
Thanks for your musings around 0200. They are darn near inspirational and FWIW I really enjoyed them. I have to run, back another day.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 04:41
tolerant1 (Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.) ID#31868:
That which is not decent should die on the vine, water was never meant to run uphill to spoil a childs' life.




Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 04:07
ROR (RYO) ID#35767:
Is a finance deal or Chapter 11 better for RYO SH. In chap 11 they could complete Kemess and come out of the 11 if the mine performs as advertised.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 03:36
Hedgehog (Preschool antics in the dunnies with a rasor blade. Thats HONOUR) ID#39845:
Copyright © 1998 Hedgehog/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
SOUTH KOREAN FORMER SECURITY
CHIEF ATTEMPTS SUICIDE
Saturday 21 March, 1998 ( 2:24pm AEDT )




South Korean authorities say the former head of the
country's intelligence agency has attempted suicide while
being questioned over a smear campaign against the
president.

A spokesman for the Seoul prosecutor's office says former
director of the Agency for National Security Planning,
Kwon Young-Hae, injured himself with a blade in a toilet.

The spokesman says Mr Kwon was taken to hospital
bleeding heavily from several cuts and stab wounds to his
abdomen.

The hospital says he is out of danger after a two hour
operation.



Return to the World News Menu

plus ...news from the Asia Pacific Region in Indonesian, Chinese and Tok Pisin

© 1998 Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Sat Mar 21 14:30:00 1998 ( AEDT )

AEDT = Australian Eastern Daylight Time which is 11 hours ahead of UTC ( Greenwich Mean Time )

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 03:29
Hedgehog (Oink oink. Er did someone mmmmmention sssscamm.) ID#39845:
Copyright © 1998 Hedgehog/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The managing director of WMC is a Hughie Morgan. Know Hughie
has it stitched up. Hughie is also on the board of the RBA.
Last year around March before the RBA selloff announcement it
came to light that WMC substantially increased its gold hedge
book. Then 19/3/98 WMC announces it closed out its 3.05 million
ounce hedge book. Thats unwound 3.05 million ounces of gold at an average price of $US405/ounce. So could we at this stage of the game
be seeing those with inside knowledge about where gold might go
making the first descisions on how to accomodate a healthy rise
in POG. Hughie Morgan is an associate of Sir Roderick Carnegie,
thats GROUP OF 30 fame, which offers consultation to the
International Mother Friggers.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 02:56
cherokee__A (@another-big-trader-) ID#173410:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee__A All rights reserved

bre-x, big-trader, another..............

signs of the times. lies and deception....all leading in the same direction....to more lies.

peopleo want to be led, it is their nature....another and big trader just want to have fun...and they have.

better listen to your eyes...they speak the truth. the truth is becoming evident as to the REALISTIC situation in grains. who heeded the ALLABOARD calls? big down moves in beans are very close.....

interest rates are fixing to do the opposite of what is expected...
bond puts
euro$ puts

2 ways to prepare for what has to happen....the fed's printing presses
are the action, which will cause the reaction, of higher rates....

hope for the best.........prepare for the un-expected at its' worst...

cherokee!;...looking-for-red-rocks-at-red-rock---------dbgaksbdd!

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 02:38
Prospector (Royal Canadian Mint = Vacuum salesmen) ID#222448:
Copyright © 1998 Prospector/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
To tsclaw: The Royal Canadian Mint is a federal government corporation who, amongst many other activities, mint Canadian circulation coins. I don’t know how they do it but their quality of service and product as well as their marketing expertise can ( and does ) give any private sector company a run for their money.

Bart, I think this may be an exaggeration but I saw once in Barrons they reported that the RCM made for Her Majesty's Cdn Gov. C$100 million around 1990 ( it was a back issue I was researching ) . Obviously they make a few bucks! If only our other Federal agencies were this productive!

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 02:21
JTF (Thinks from upover - Nearly asleep!) ID#57236:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
aurator: Entropy must be only part of the story. There is another just as fundamental process where order spontaneously forms out of chaos, somewhat like crystals of salt forming spontaneously in a saturated solution. All things in the universe are somehow connected by these principles -- otherwise the golden ratio/phi/fibonacci series would not have such broad significance.

Yes -- it is interesting that some things occur in pairs -- such as charge, and magnetic fields -- although magnetic monopoles are still a dream only. And other things do not appear to occur in pairs, despite the tendency of nature to have an opposite for virtually every elementary particle.

It makes you wonder if the supreme being might love to stir the waters every so often -- just to see what kinds of creatures he/she/or? can create.

The universe is much more ordered than it appears, but most of us ordinary mortals perceive it as random.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 02:02
aurator (THINKS) ID#255284:
-
JTF

Although the laws of thermodynamics demand the rational conclusion that the universe is entropic, increasing in randomness, does it not strike you as odd, in a weltanschuung of your physics where all forces are bi-polar ( save gravity which needs more explanation another time ) that here in entropy we have what looks like a unitary force?

Yes, the complexity of this golden hearted humanity, created to swim against the relentless tide of increasing randomness is truly awe-inspiring.

Perhaps humanity is itself the fish that swims agains the tide searching for the source of order, seeking its spawning ground. The key to understanding our many worlds lies in the universal laws of cause and effect. Each cause producing an effect. Each effect itself containing another latent cause needing only circumstances to for the latent cause to become manifest to produce another effect.



Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 01:59
JTF (Thanks Bart!) ID#57232:
Bart: Thank you for making this virtual world possible. I have seen nothing like it anywhere in my wanderings on the web! The mix of backgeounds is astounding -- from the more practical focused types to the eccectic wanderers like me! I really am trying to bring the fibonacci series/fractal stuff into gold investing, though it may not seem this way.

Thanks again!

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 01:46
JTF (Some beautiful pictures based on strange attractors, and food for thought.) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A little rest for the eye.

http://ccrma-www.stanford.edu/~stilti/images/chaotic_attractors/nav.html

All: I must admit I don't understand chaos theory. It appears that when natural phenomena are stirred up, on average entropy increases. Somehow, when the system involved is permitted to relax somewhat, the first sign of order is little eddies of entropy minima. These entropy minima tend to obey the fibonacci series/phi/golden rule/1.618 stuff. I find it very hard to appreciate order developing spontaneously from Chaos. I can only guess that what we are seeing is the quantization of matter at a level that we can observe.

Have any of you considered the fact that we humans should not exist if entropy always increased, as the physics textbooks say? We are little eddies of entropy minima in a sea of increasing entropy. I consider this as beautiful a concept about life as what aurator posted last night! Imagine life forming from randomness in the primordial soup -- it should not have happened, but it did! Order from Chaos. Intelligent life is several orders more removed from unicellular life.

My guess is that there is little in this universe more precious than intelligent life -- arguably the most highly ordered state of existence in the universe.


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 01:13
DBog (Arizona Star) ID#267298:
Does anyone know anything about Arizona Star? Particularly in
respect to how long they might be around if POG remains low
for a year or more? Any Info, opinions greatly appreciated.

TIA


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 01:04
STUDIO.R (@Bart.....) ID#290213:
I want to thank you for the leniency ( latitude ) you have afforded me and my ramblings...wow, do I stray? Sometimes I just can't think of a new way to say I want gold to go up in price, or I can't offer something that hasn't been said many times before...and said better. I appreciate the opportunity to participate and like all the others...I owe you one.
Thank you, Bart.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 00:59
JTF (Thanks for your post on the EURO -- G'NIte all) ID#57236:
Speed: Appreciate your post/url. I think the understanding the EURO situation is critical in understanding future trends in gold prices. And -- the Europeans know far more about the value of gold than we Americans. America has been isolated from turmoil -- and so most Americans are out of touch with anything except 'fiat' currency. 1980 seems to be a faded memory.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 00:51
JTF (Phil Callahan) ID#57236:
chas: Looked up Phil Callahan, found this instead about Chaos theory, golden ratio, fractals, etc. in nature. Don't know what to make of it yet.

May explain some things about why humans and nature all tend to move in semi-randon patterns linked to the fibonacci series.

http://www.wmin.ac.uk/~ccdva/welcome.html

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 00:51
Bart Kitner (Kitco) (late nite stuff) ID#25867:
Copyright © 1998 Bart Kitner (Kitco)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
To Ted: If you’re trying to see how far you can go without getting tossed, you’re there. In fact you’re already way past.

robnoel: You said those who are to cheap to get a Mountie,go find another chat room.

I do appreciate where you’re coming from with this, but with all due respect there are two things that need to be said: 1 ) The Mountie sales will support this site, but they’re not for everybody. And 2 ) This is a gold and precious metal DISCUSSION GROUP, not a chat room ! There is a big, big difference. A big difference. I don’t have a dictionary handy so I can’t prove how big, but I’m sure it’s pretty big.

To tsclaw: The Royal Canadian Mint is a federal government corporation who, amongst many other activities, mint Canadian circulation coins. I don’t know how they do it but their quality of service and product as well as their marketing expertise can ( and does ) give any private sector company a run for their money.


Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 00:46
STUDIO.R (Mike....no need to apologize.....) ID#290213:
We knew you were joshin'. It's ours to stand up real straight when duty calls....stand fast for what you believe is good.
Honor your parents and your hometown.

I, akin to Snowball, respect men and women who do more than talk all day long. There is work to do...and words won't get it done.

Off to La Jolla for the next six days with family ( and forget $12. oil ) Yahoooooo! Goin' meet StradMaster and fam. Go Goldbugs, west!

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 00:33
Mike Sheller (Snowball) ID#347447:
Not only did I keep her out all night, but I still haven't returned her. Just don't tell my wife. Seriously, if I have in ANY way offended Oklahomans, please accept my most sincere and humble apologies. Sometimes my sense of humor takes no prisoners ( which reminds me, I'd better release that feller's sister now ) .

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 00:12
STUDIO.R (@Mike......simple......) ID#290213:
I detest investment bankers...of the lot, I can take Jimmy better than most. ( this should give you a relative feel for what I think of the rest of those thieves ) ....lower than snake crap in a wagon wheel track...and I ain't goin' to apologize or mince words.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 00:09
Snowball ((@ Mike Sheller)) ID#234218:
I contacted a few fellow Okies and told them you said the world famous humorist and Oklahoma's favorite son was the bowtied, biker fellow on CNBC. Just before they ran over me in a stampeed I heard somethin' about a short rope, a tall tree and a horse that bolts. I think one of them said he knew where you lived cause you dated his sister in high school and kept her out all night.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 00:08
Selby (The Royal Canadian Mint) ID#286230:
tsclaw: Its all here: http://www.rcmint.ca/en/about/

You can even buy stuff on the Net it looks like.

Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 00:05
Mike Sheller (STUDIO.R) ID#347447:
May I ask why so down on Jim?

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