KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 21:32
Prometheus (@Oldman) ID#210235:
One suspects that those FBI files at the White House have done their job for Clinton. A sad day for us all, as this regime is gleefully wiling away our funds at a rate of over half-a-billion a day and no one will even call them on it! Let's focus on gold and the other metals. They, at least, will still have their shine when this house of cards collapses.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 21:31
RJ (..... ANOTHER - Non Sequitur .....) ID#411259:

Golden our hopes

Dashed on a silver shore

Today the tale

And then to snore

OK


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 21:30
Donald__A (Summary of Royal Oak conference call today) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980318/royal_oak__1.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 21:28
Silverbaron (robnoel) ID#288295:
Oh, I forgot to ask you something - the other day I caught some discussion ( I think it was between aurator and Nick@C ) about Italian counterfeit Sov's. Do you know anything about this? I've been concentrating on the French/Swiss 20 F issues, and am not particularly interested in Sovereigns - so this is just a question that may be of interest to others.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 21:25
Donald__A (Prudential economist predicts GDP to drop from 3.9 now to .5) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980318/prudential_3.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 21:21
Oldman (Secret Police) ID#199183:
In case anyone wonders why the air waves ( which are controlled by the same folks that control Clinton ) are full of sex and lies about sex, here is the answer: It is all a smoke screen to hide the REAL criminality that surrounds and permeates the Klintonista regime. The one man who knows more about how Klinton operates than anyone in the world ( including Hillary ) now is beginning to uncover just a smidgen of it. http://www.nypostonline.com/commentary/425.htm

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 21:20
STUDIO.R (@Carl.....) ID#288369:
When I was in the cattle feedlot biz, I bought grain and feed products from Cargill...I thought they were top notch. Very competitive and good quality. Minneapolis, I believe, privately-held....always had stories floating around. Extremely wealthy family.

ADM is another big boy in that sector...Ralston Purina, St.Louis., etc. Does SDRer own part of the Swiss testing company?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 21:18
Donald__A (S&P downgrades Freeport-McM; creditwatch negative) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980318/s_p_freepo_1.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 21:16
Silverbaron (robnoel) ID#288295:
Whoa, hey! I think it was tyro who paged ya', not Moir....Anyway, I respect your position, and thanx for the warnings and your expert advice. I'm pretty cautious about these things, and I don't deal with anybody I don't personally know or have references for.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 21:14
david__A (Western Mining) ID#266156:
Copyright © 1998 david__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Great news that Western mining has closed out its hedge book, will this set the pace for other Aussie producers to do the same, they have over 33moz hedged today....now that is a lot of gold


REDUCTION IN WMC'S GOLD HEDGING POSITION



WMC Limited ( WMC ) announces that it has substantially reduced its gold hedging position and locked in a pre-tax net profit of A$310.8 million.

As at 31 December 1997, WMC had hedged 3,046,826 ounces of gold at an average price of US$405/oz using a combination of forward and option contracts with maturities extending to June 2007. The Company has closed out the original hedging position and purchased 1.36 million ounces of put options maturing over the next two years at an average strike price of US$275/oz.

This profit will be brought to account in the various production years as designated by the original hedges; A$59.7 million for 1998 ( which includes profits on contracts which have matured since 31 December 1997 ) , A$73.5 million for 1999 and A$177.6 million for years 2000-2007.


 

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 21:12
Donald__A (The Nikkei) ID#26793:
An hour ago it was +125, now down 50

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 21:06
Preacher (Beamer & KRY) ID#225273:
Try this link.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/crystallex_1.html

The Preacher

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 21:03
The Hermit (@ Prometheus - your 20:33) ID#317400:
Mania it is! It is truly amazing what the public ( sheep ) will do when they have something to follow. Good post! Hold on to your gold!


The Hermit

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 21:01
Beamer (Preacher) ID#26144:
My understanding of the Crystallex news release ( Stockwatch version )
is that he said they didn't have title another concession called the
Carabobo. This article stopped short of saying they didn't have title
to La Christinas....... where did you read this?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 20:59
Pete (Kuston - Repost of ANOTHER) ID#222231:
Copyright © 1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Mon Mar 16 1998 15:12
Pete ( ALL - Preacher ) ID#222231:
Copyright © 1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
THESE ARE EXCERPTS FROM COLLIN SEYMOURS PAGE LISTED IN
FIENDBEAR HOME PAGE ( NOT GOLDEN-EAGLE )

Alchemy and Poetry

Alchemy, the ancient pseudoscience concerned mainly with the
transmutation
of base metals into gold, can be traced back to the ancient Greeks... The
Arabs
based their alchemy on the Greeks and Arabs also have a great tradition
of
poetic arts.

Most famous of the old Arabian Alchemists was Jabir ibn Haiyan (
721-815? )
who was known to the West as Geber, the Arabian Prince. Jabir believed
that
various metals could be produced by mixing mercury and sulphur in
different
proportions. He enjoyed the patronage of the Barmaki Vizier during the
Abbasid
Caliphate of Haroon al-Rashid, and died in Kufa.

After the death of Jabir, nearly a century elapsed before Islam produced a
worthy successor: this was the Persian chemist and physician Abu Bakr
Muhammad ibn Zakariyya al-Razi ( 866-925 ) ( known to the West as
Rhazes ) .

Now follow this link, which joins the themes of Alchemy as transmutation
of
base metals into gold, and poetry for goldbugs, ( to be read while recalling

Jabir's theory concerning mercury ) :
ANOTHER - A A Aziz

AFTER CLICKING ANOTHER - Aziz

POEM NAMED ANOTHER BY A A AZIZ: ( OR IS THE NAME OF THE POEM
A COINCIDENCE? )

ANOTHER

Mercury are you the element
sealed in the sacred vessel
of putrification and decay?
Mercury are you the catalyst
that would transform
from lower to higher?
Mercury you are missing the creation
of the Most High's
Mercy
Mercury are you the solution
that kills the lesser
and multyplys the greater?

Beyond you
is Another
In you
is Another
for you are an allusion
to Another
beyond the thought of you
Another

EXCERPT FROM COLLIN SEYMOUR PAGE:

Investor Biographies

Out-of-the-ordinary investors!

Prince Alwaleed bin Talal bin Abdul Aziz al Saud [Updated
March 13th]

Prince Alwaleed bin Talal bin Abdulaziz ( a nephew of King Fahd ) is a
billionaire
investor with a contrarian investment style and heads the United Saudi
Bank,
which was created in September 1997 from the merger of the United Saudi

Commercial Bank ( of which the Prince owned approx. 40% ) and the Saudi
Cairo
Bank. The United Saudi Bank is regulated by the Saudi Arabian Monetary
Agency ( SAMA ) , which has been invited to join the Bank for International

Settlements ( BIS ) .

Prince Alwaleed's father, Prince Talal Bin Abdul-Aziz al-Saud, is
half-brother of
King Fahd and is supposedly the most liberal member of the ruling al-Saud

dynasty.

Prince Alwaleed is a very unique investor as you will find from these
linked
stories:

1.The Prince and the Portfolio
2.Inside the $10 billion empire
3.Billionaire Prince stands for business acumen, clean living
4.The Prince Talks Strategy
5.Apple's Arabian Knight?
6.Background information- The Saudi Arabian Economy

IS THIS ALL COINCIDENCE? COULD THIS BE OUR ANOTHER? IT
CERTAINLY WARRENTS A DISCUSSION.

Return to Kitco Homepage

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 20:51
Preacher (Crystallex & Western Copper) ID#225273:
Copyright © 1998 Preacher/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
To all:

The big stories today in the Canadian mining stocks were Krystallex and Western Copper.
Krystallex fell C$2.65 and was halted at 11:09 at a price of C$4.45. This week in Miami, a conference on mining investment in Latin America is taking place. One of the speakers today was a congressman from Venezuela. In his speech he said that Crystallex's claims to the Las Cristinas deposit were false and that he had complained to the Ontario Securities Commission about the false claims being made by KRY.
KRY responded in a statement that this particular congressman has always opposed them and his statements today were nothing new.
Oh well. Shares of Placer Dome were about the best performers on the XAU. I guess the market has spoken about who it believes. The Venezuelan Supreme Court decision is expected soon. Of course, the jolly guys at Asensio have already said that there is no court case. We'll see.

Western Copper put out two very good press releases in the past week and has seen $2.00 taken off its price. WCT peaked at C$10.75 last month. It hit a low of C$6.00 this morning before coming back to close at $7.05, off just C$.15.
There is nothing wrong here and this is a great buying opportunity. The Vancouver Sun has some negative comments about WTC this morning, but I think they were inaccurate.
The Sun reported that poor drill holes were accounting for the price drop. Truth is that the deposit extended to a fault, WTC drilled on the other side of the fault and missed. Since those holes were drilled though, more holes have been drilled and they have picked the deposit back up on the other side of the fault. It's still going.
The other issue was an off-hand comment that WTC was getting a new project because this first one was petering out. This is also untrue.
This new project is a silver mine from Kennecott, who has drilled 70 holes already and I hear there is enough silver found already to make a mine. And very little of the property has been drilled.
The bad publicity and the price decline make WTC a super buy at this price, IMO. I have an idea it will trade much higher, possibly over C$20 in time. Also, it's very liquid for a Canadian mining share, and sometimes that is important.

The Preacher

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 20:47
robnoel__A (silverbaron, tyro I'am here whats up guys,to all just so you know I'am a dealer and a talk show host) ID#411112:
Copyright © 1998 robnoel__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I've been in the gold coin industry all my life it seems,what I try to do here is give you guys direction,when it comes to gold coins,there is a lot of misiformation,and yes just like politicians,used car salesman,etc,the coin busness is full promises,it is and has always been buyer beware,there are however a lot of dealers who are honest, up front, and this may surprise you PATRIOTIC...in other words they charge a mark up that is fair,I don't think 10% is unreasonable,what really gets me is the guy who was a used car salesman last week and this week is a finacial expert,anyone who talks profit as the reason to buy coins is asking you to bend over,be carefull out there

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 20:41
Carl (SDRer) ID#341189:
Interesting find on SGS. I wonder if Cargil is in on this. They have always been a mystery to me. I have no idea who even owns them. I think we have to add FOOD to the oil/gold web. The reason it occurs to me that Cargil may be involved is that I've heard nasty rummors in the past about grain quality of shipments overseas. Somebody must control this market and Cargil is my candidate. Some conection with SGS would be interesting. Do you know anything about them?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 20:35
Bill El Zebub (@SpudMaster 19:57...your point is well taken...I'm starting to believe they are) ID#261352:
in complete control of financial circumstance...the only wild
card being Third World political upheaval, IMHO.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 20:34
TYoung (kuston) ID#317193:
Green Valley was great and I left several golf balls in the desert. Sorry we could not make connections. Tom

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 20:33
Prometheus (@stockmarket mania) ID#210235:
-
The essential ingredients of the tulipmania were broad public involvment, the complete separation of the article from its perceived market value, and the trading in futures....The bulbs were not only never seen, they were not even in the possession of the sellers and only nominally in the minds of the parties. Therefore, it was possible - if not inevitable - that the trade became one in contracts, each buyer endeavoring to resell at a higher price the purchase contract he had negotiated. ( Joseph Bugatz )

I'm mentioning this because this particular phenomenon had no noticable staring point, nor was any reason ever discerned why it stopped. It is suspected that style-leaders just found something else that caught their eye. Even though historians have really searched for the cause of that change in market direction. What a coup it would be to publish that.

While we wait for the stockmarket mania to implode, we are looking for causes. We may never see them. No matter the trigger, and several possible and plausable ones have been put forth, it will be the astounding numbers of derivative contracts that do the damage.

In Holland, all the trading was done in futures contracts, which the government after the collapse chose not to enforce, as they were gambling and unworthy of government invervention.


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 20:29
Ray (kaplan) ID#411149:
david__A- here it is.
http://www.investor1.com/home.html

Tally Ho

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 20:26
david__A (Steve Kaplan) ID#266156:

Does anyone have the internet address for Steve Kaplan's gold page, he was going to change the address and I can't find his old page, any ideas?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 20:25
MoReGoLd (@Some ECB Calculations) ID#348286:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
``In the third phase of EMU the amount of external reserves held will be five to six times higher than the amount which will be transferred to the European Central Bank ( ECB ) and one third of these external reserves will consist of gold,'' Verplaetse said.

He repeatedly refused to confirm the implication from this statement that the European Monetary Institute -- the ECB's forerunner -- and EU central banks had thrashed out a deal on the sensitive issue of the level of gold deposits at the ECB. ( ( White man speak with fork tongue ) )

If I remember right, the ECB is to hold $55 Billion.
Hence: 55B X 6 X .33 = $109 Billion in Gold.

@290/oz = about 376 Million ozs of Gold or about 11,713 Tonnes.

To good to be true?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 20:21
kuston (wrong time - 19:08) ID#273227:
Sorry,

TYoung - how was Green Valley?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 20:19
kuston (Pete 19:52) ID#273227:
Copyright © 1998 kuston/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Yes, It's gone. I bookmarked it the other night after scanning some of it. If anyone saved it locally, please email it to me. thansen@cris.com

After scanning the articles the other night, I got to thinking if it

could be. Could Another be a middle eastern prince? The part that got me thinking was his handle. About a year ago we had a small discussion here about the handle each of us choose to use. Back then we weren't required to have one but most of us did. A good portion of the handles choosen were very personnal. Figuring them out was like a puzzle. I've alway's wondered about the Another handle. After reading that poem, it became alot clearer.

800lb gorillas usually don't invest with me - I sure do like the feeling.


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 20:15
chas (Donald re your 18:59) ID#342282:
The most multidimensional appraisal of inflation I could have imagined. I was working at NYSE member in 56 or 57 when old 29 hi was surpassed at regular figures. How could the Fed, with 50,000 cpa's say inflation is so benign?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 20:13
SDRer__A () ID#280245:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Société Générale de Surveillance is sometimes even caught in golden webs...

Bienvenue sur notre page Fonds Juifs et Or Nazi
21 7. 1996 Elisabeth Salina Amorini denies that the SGS is an agent of Jewish funds
http://www.tsr.ch/docu/fondsj.html#atter

and the unfortunate Pakistan Gold connection--
http.//www.nytimes.com/library/world/010998pakistan.1.GIF.html

The Bhutto trail
http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/010998pakistan.html

Amorini took immediate steps: I've misplaced ( in this sea of paper )
the press conference and its url--will post later.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 20:13
Prometheus (@Spud Master) ID#210235:
Thanks for posting the new debt information. Just because you didn't get a quick response doesn't mean we're not fuming out here! I have been quietly spreading the word about the debt vs. lies, and the web sources. The Internet will be pivotal in changing public perception on this. Prepare for some sort of regulatory backlash or phoney Internet scandals to frighten away the newbies.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 20:00
SDRer__A ( Geneva Société Générale de Surveillance (SGS) Chairman (her term, not mine)) ID#280245:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Société Générale de Surveillance Chairman
Switzerland’s 200 richest Families

Salmanowitz, family Geneva 300 to 200 million

With firm hand Elizabeth Salina Amorini chairs Geneva Société Générale de Surveillance ( SGS ) . The family holdsonly 4.5 per cent of the SGS capital, but with a network of the other founder families she controls the largest inspection enterprise in the world. After three management presidents were ‘found wanting’, Salina sat down in September 1994 .
http://www.bilanz.ch/archiv/reichste/reichste12.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:57
Spud Master (Can anyone explain...) ID#273112:
how the Federal Government can blantantly deficit spend $124 BILLION dollars and yet the Press, Congress, the American People swallow whole the lie that there is no deficit?!

Have we all sold our souls for the perception that we are living the good life - nothing else matters?

The ONLY way this merde can continue is for the Dow/market to absorb FOREVER all these dollars. They must NEVER be withdrawn and spent! It's one-way, or no-way!

The market is in full-blown Ponzi mode.


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:50
SDRer__A (Société Générale de Surveillance is owned by the people who own banks.) ID#280245:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...i.e. insurance companies...
UBS--in JULY 1997--sold its remaining 110,920 registered shares to Baron August von Finck and Retenanstalt/Swiss Life. The ‘founding families: Caledonia Investments plc [Major Shareholders: ( 17 Mar 98 ) 83.40m 5p Ords - Cayzer Trust Company Ltd 36.80%, Sterling Industries PLC 9.70%, Equitable Life Assur Soc 7.50%, Prudential Corp PLC 3.40%, Other Dirs 2.30%.]; Deutsche Bank; Rentenanstalt/Swiss Life; Baron August von Finck.
http://www.sgsgroup.com/sgsgroup.nsf/pages/97_other.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:49
SDRer__A () ID#280245:
Société Générale de Surveillance assists in trade and revenue collections.
Société Générale de Surveillance is in China--”Odyssey in Uncharted Waters”
http://www.sgsgroup.com/SGSGroup.nsf/pages/new.html


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:47
Spud Master (Yeee Ha! Ride'm ... US FedGov continues wild borrowing spree ... Debt? We don't need no stink'n debt) ID#273112:
Copyright © 1998 Spud Master/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
US FedGov deficit for Fiscal 1998 so far:

03/17/1998 $5,536,663,723,483.42
09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34

A stunning $123 BILLION dollars. Check it out for your self at http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

Let us all join hands, and dancing ala Barney the Dinosaur, sing:

We've no debt, we've no debt, we are all just happy family...

Lies, piled upon lies.

There is no deficit this year.

The budget is balanced.

two plus two equal five.

if the Party says I can float off this floor, Winston, then I can...

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:47
SDRer__A (Société Générale de Surveillance watches over Petroleum) ID#280245:

“at every location in the world where oil, its derivative products and other chemicals are physically moved, whether it be between shore tank and ship, pipeline, or any other combination of these factors...
http://www.sgsgroup.com/SGSredwood.nsf/pages/home.html



Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:46
Donald__A (BNB says Belgians will benefit from gold sales and other new sale details.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/belgium_go_4.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:45
SDRer__A (Société Générale de Surveillance watches over ‘minerals’--) ID#280245:

Société Générale de Surveillance will help you avoid Bre-X risks!
with their Risk Management service ...
They are everywhere, in every part of the operation...
http://www.sgsgroup.com/SGSminerals.nsf/pages/home.html


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:44
SDRer__A (Carl, A. Goose--May I introduce the beautiful, golden Kitco Spider? ) ID#280245:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

We sought a spider who sat at the center of the world
whose web captured oil and gold
and thought it would be ‘compelling’ if our spider
also spun silken strands around ships and shipping
--but couldn’t really expect to find a spider whose web was so far reaching

And our Spider had to have integrity...unquestionable integrity...

And the golden Kitco spider is all those things
and more!

Take a peek at the beautiful golden Kitco spider
“Operating in more than 140 countries, ...world leader in inspection, testing and certification ( ISO ) ...”

And give a small nod of thanks to Baron August von Finck, who pointed the way...

http://www.sgsgroup.com/SGSGroup.nsf/pages/home.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:38
Donald__A (Gold dealers see price action today as positive for gold) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/markets_co_1.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:32
MoReGoLd (@Very heavy Gold volume on Comex - with only a marginal decline with all the Bearish news!) ID#348286:
( Steve Kaplan ) : Wednesday's COMEX gold estimated volume was a very heavy 90,000 lots. Total COMEX gold open interest on Tuesday rose a very sharp 9,630 to 200,258 lots, intensifying the recent trend toward commercials' increasing their accumulation on moderate dips in the gold price.

THE BIG QUESTION: Is the Gold market finally able to resist the massive selling and incredible market bearishness - if yes then we
have HIT BOTTOM !

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:29
chas (BILLD re my email) ID#342282:
Replied to yours this evening. Not sure it went thru. If you got it or not let me know. Thanx

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:25
Tyro (robnoel are you still around?) ID#369174:

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:23
Silverbaron (OLD GOLD) ID#288295:
In the 70's, after much the same scenario, it was ( finally ) interpreted as bullish for gold when the CB's sold - the public finally caught on to the ruse. Perhaps the next time exactly that will happen.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:22
6pak (FWIW @ FYI) ID#335190:
Japan Feb trade surplus jumps 88.7 pct yr/yr

TOKYO, March 19 ( Reuters ) - Japan's customs-cleared trade surplus for February climbed 88.7 percent from a year earlier to 1.28 trillion yen, the Ministry of Finance said on Thursday.

The trade surplus with the United States rose to 539.03 billion yen in February, up 32.9 percent from a year earlier, it said. The figures were not adjusted for seasonal factors.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:16
OLD GOLD (death bed) ID#238295:
Gold's ability to limit its decline to just 70 cents after a big CB sales announcement is the most bullish action I have seen for POG since this bear began. Not quite ready to declare the bear over, but little doubt it is on its death bed.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:15
Silverbaron (RJ) ID#288295:

Translate, please.....Why do I get the feeling ( again ) that you know something that I don't know?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:08
Pete (All) ID#222231:
I just checked the fiendbear site under OPINION AND EDITORIAL COMMENTS, and poetry for goldbugs. All reference to ANOTHER has been deleted.

SOMETHINGS FISHY!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 19:04
Silverbaron (RETIRED SOLDIER) ID#288295:
Please email me & I will provide info you requested. silverdolr@webtv.net

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:59
Donald__A (Dow/Gold Ratio) ID#26793:
Copyright © 1998 Donald__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
On September 3, 1929, the Dow/Gold Ratio was 18.43 with the Dow at 386.10. It took 68 years for the Dow/Gold Ratio to return to that old high which it did on January 13, 1997. On that date the ratio was 18.70 and the Dow, in terms of 1929 dollars, was 386.52. The recovery started from a Depression low of 41.88 on July 8, 1932, a gain of 344.64 in 1929 dollars over the 68 year period. Since that January post-depression high, only 14 months ago, the Dow has added 238.13 points in 1929 dollars and stands at 624.65. It has gained an amount equal to 70% of that 68 year struggle in only 14 months.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:56
RJ (..... A very short post with a very, very, very, long header .....) ID#411259:

Beware the silver tide

As it flows

So it shall ebb


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:53
Suspicious (Donald_A / Gold/Dow ratio again) ID#287312:
I understand that several times through history when the equities market turned down that 1 oz. of gold would buy the Dow. Wander if we will see that this time. My guess is we will.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:48
RETIRED SOLDIER (@ Silverbaron) ID#347235:
Who is selling sovs so cheap? Do you think they are reliable?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:45
RETIRED SOLDIER (Silverbaron) ID#347235:
No problem OLD SOLDIER and I are about the same age,he just outranked me is all I am flattered to be in his company.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:43
RETIRED SOLDIER (Silverbaron) ID#347235:
Thanks for the quick acknowlwdgement

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:40
Silverbaron (RETIRED SOLDIER) ID#288295:

Sorry about addressing my post to the wrong ( OLD ) SOLDIER! Thank you, Sir, for the input!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:36
Silverbaron (OLD SOLDIER) ID#288295:

I've done biz with your reference also. As a matter of fact, I had just been on the phone with them getting prices, when the earlier post surprised me with such a low quote for Sov's ( $79 ) . So much difference made me want to find out just why, and what else they had to sell.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:29
6pak (Scientific American @ OIL - March 98 Issue) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
http://www.sciam.com/1998/0398issue/0398quicksummary.html
QUICK ARTICLE SUMMARIES.......MARCH 1998

SPECIAL REPORT:

PREVENTING THE NEXT OIL CRUNCH

Global production of oil from conventional sources
is likely to peak and decline permanently during the
next decade, according to the most thoughtful
analyses. In these articles, industry experts explain
why and describe technologies that could cushion
against the shock of a new energy crisis.

THE END OF CHEAP OIL
Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère

Forecasts about the abundance of oil are usually
warped by inconsistent definitions of reserves. In
truth, every year for the past two decades the
industry has pumped more oil than it has
discovered, and production will soon be unable to
keep up with rising demand.

MINING FOR OIL
Richard L. George

Tarry sands and shales in Canada alone hold more
than 300 billion barrels of petroleum, more than
Saudi Arabia's reserves. Some companies can
now extract that oil economically, while addressing
environmental concerns over open-pit mining.

OIL PRODUCTION IN THE 21ST CENTURY
Roger N. Anderson

Tracking the flow of underground crude,
pressurizing dead wells and steering drills
horizontally will help keep current oil fields alive.
Meanwhile better engineering will open reserves
under the deep ocean.

LIQUID FUELS FROM NATURAL GAS
Safaa A. Fouda

Liquefied as gasoline, methanol or diesel fuel,
natural gas can buffer the coming decline in crude
oil. Technological improvements are making this
conversion cheaper and more efficient.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:28
jonesy (@ ANYBODY, Re. Aragon III re. Gold-backed Euro @ 16:24) ID#251166:
-

Really good post. Let me see if I've got it. By Aragon's scenario we seem to ask, What if people refused to acknowledge the confidence portion of the Euro and instead transacted only per the gold-backed portion?

Because they're thinking of backing their currency with some percentage of gold, and because that's sure to get people thinking about why currency should be backed by gold in the first place, then it strikes me that any backing less than 100% is just not gonna cut it the way they envision. But how could 100% backing come about with anything less than a revaluation of gold?

Eh?

Insight much appreciated.

dean

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:27
Donald__A (@Allen(USA)) ID#26793:
You give me more credit than I deserve. I can't answer that question. A normal Dow/Gold Ratio would be between 4.5 and 5.5 now. Prior to 1929 it was 3.5 to 4.0. It seems to reflect the progress of industry over time on an average. Perhaps after the crash we will settle back to the 5 to 6 range as normal. Perhaps someone who has the data fully computerized can give an exact answer.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:27
Pete (Crunch) ID#222231:
Have you read Robnoel's post at 13:11?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:19
RETIRED SOLDIER (@Silverbaron) ID#347235:
Best contact I know is Russ Savage Rsavage@jeffinc.com he has treated me right with Helvitias

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:16
6pak (Watch Labour @ Fed is going to raise rates - My Take - Blame high labour costs eh!) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/ECONOMY-FED.html
March 18, 1998
FOCUS-US labor markets stretched, growth vigorous-Fed

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The economy is growing so vigorously that tightly stretched labor markets are generating substantial wage demands and hampering production in much of the country, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.

With labor markets stretched to the limit in many areas, there have been reports of rather large wage increases,

The Fed noted an increased degree of wage pressures but said price pressures were much less of a worry.

Pressures on product prices remain eerily calm, as domestic competition, productivity gains and the Asian situation help to constrain production costs, the Fed said.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:14
HenryD (Good Night to all ... The spirit of KITCO (immho) is:) ID#36156:
Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly. - Robert F. Kennedy

HenryD - Go Gold

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:12
chas (JTF re Turning point) ID#342282:
Email me, lots of fuzz right now. cdevoto@conninc.com

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:09
6pak (New York Private banking Office @ Executive disappeared & $70 million -Stock up $.69 to $109.06 ) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
March 18, 1998

BankBoston probes $70 million loans, cops seek exec

BOSTON ( Reuters ) - BankBoston Corp. said Wednesday a New York-based bank executive, who has apparently disappeared, is being sought by authorities in connection with $70 million in questionable loans.

The FBI and local police were searching for the executive, identifed in documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission only as an officer at the company's New York private banking office.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BANKING-BANKBOSTON.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 18:03
Silverbaron (robnoel @ Sov's) ID#288295:
Thanx for the warning, but I was lookiing for his contact to pursue other items, not Sov's..... I'm aware that there are fake Sov's out there, and in any case, I try to buy stuff that others aren't chasing, such as some of the other small european gold coins.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 17:59
Aura (Natural processes) ID#25784:
Copyright © 1998 Aura/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
to Old Gold: 13:58 This downsweep should have two more days to go and finish Friday near the close at 281--285.

to JTF and CLONE: What astronomy has to do with the price of gold and everything else is everything. This is what underpins all the good fundamental knowledge of this learned forum and the cosmic side of the coin should never be forgotten when looking at the mundane side. It should get at least occasional due placing of head lower than heart. WD Gann studying cuneiform tablets in the BritishMuseum found the Sumerians explained the movement of prices of wheat by movements of the stars. Stonehenge and multiple other monoliths were built to capitalize on the knowledge of sacred geometry, the same dance that is found in the mutation permutation combination and recombination in DNA of the facts ATGC CGAT etc etc. Astrogeometry and the egoless disciplined use of logic show those who know how to guage the intensity and quantum stacking of the lights where each market much less any phenomenon of focus is heading. Much training is required usually a lifelong quest. The cycles and their holistic multilayered interpretation are more complex than merely the fibonacci numbers; that is one string of it from multi multi. Apparent deviations from one cycle are not the overriding of human will that is mixing apples and oranges. They are the insertion of another larger planetary orb. The earth Moon Sun lunar/tidal cycles having to do with the Moon's nodes and the vast eclipse cycles are one very powerful indicator. Each market responds in its own time depending on the genesis of that market. Events that seem to move markets are the mundane side of the coin; there is always a corresponding clash in the heavens.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 17:41
JTF (33% backing of EURO by gold?) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Allen ( USA ) : Do you mean that 33% of reserves are to be gold, or that the EURO would be backed 33% by gold? Even if 33% of reserves are to be gold, I think that is higher than the current traditional standard, which I think was 25% ( BIS? ) .

Either way, a sales pitch must me made for people to move away from the US dollar to the EURO. Would be interesting if a gold 'premium' would be part of the sales pitch. I think a EURO solidly backed by gold -- so many units per ounce of gold -- may be too much to expect, unfortunately.

My comment about 'black market' pricing of gold through the LBMA -- above the spot price of gold wasn't that crazy after all, it seems. Didn't someone post today that a 'bid' system was used to sell the gold at a price different from the spot price?

Looks like this is the end of the gold bear to me. Congrats for putting this together, and we must complement ANOTHER as well for alerting us. I think this day will go down in the Kitco historical annals ( whatever that means ) , IMHO.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 17:32
Speed (Closing Metals News) ID#28861:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/ny_preciou_2.html


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 17:30
Crunch (@ ALBERICH - Federal Reserve System) ID#344290:
-
According to my material on the subject, the only shareholders in the FR are chartered banks in the USA. For their investment ( mandatory by banking laws ) they receive a reasonable dividend ( fixed by Govt. ) The head of the 12 FR Banks are appointed by the President USA w/advice & consent of the Senate. The chief function of the system ( 12 member banks and their susidiaries ) is to clear interbank checking ( for which they charge the various banks ) . All profits above expenses for all of the Fed. Reserve Sys. goes to the USA Treasury. I can't understand how the Rothchilds et. al. could possibly have their way w/FR. Incidentally the shareholders have no voice in the management of the FR. The FR has many more functions; such as setting the discount rate, margin requirements, reserves requirements for banks, etc. In short, the Fed. is independent of undue outside influence from any quarter IMVHO. The best system that has yet to be adopted by a major power.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 17:29
223 (Speed, question about yahoo/swc) ID#26669:
Yould you mind copying the URL for the Yahoo internet message board for SWC then pasting it onto a Kitco post some time when you have the chance? To me Yahoo is an endless labyrinth.

thanks

Gagnrad

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 17:26
clone (Question - what does Astronomy have to do with gold?) ID#269245:

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 17:15
Allen(USA) (The mean DOW/Gold ratio is about 5.) ID#246224:
That is time ( in years ) it was above 5 verse below 5 is about equal. Average is about 11 or 12. But Donald would know PRECISELY.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 17:15
Delphi (@EURO and Gold backing) ID#258129:
Copyright © 1998 Delphi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Here is some information, I have found on Dutch Ministry of Finance web site. It is a long document in Dutch, containing a letter of CB Governor to Chairman of Lower House of Dutch Parliament dated Jan 30, 1998, containing answers to questions of different parliament fractions regarding introduction of EURO.
…in third phase of ECB can ask up to EIRO 50 B for external reserves. In case if all 15 EU members will participate in EMU [it is not the case, only 11 countries, probably - Delphi] Dutch share will be about 4.25% or up to EURO 2.1 B ( about NLG 4.5 B ) . If there will be less participants in EMU, Dutch share will be higher. As we know, who will actually participate will be decided later this year. Only after establishing of ECB the exact volume and structure of requested external reserves will be defined finally. - so we have the scale - total amount of backing - EURO 50B, Dutch share in it is about US$ 2.2 or more in case of less then 15 participants.
In relation with EMI [European Monetary Institute, predecessor of ECB], we where thinking that about 15% of external reserves will be in gold. - please, be careful, it was told in January, and this figure can be different per country.
Gold reserves of Bank of Netherlands is 1052 ton with book value of almost NLG 15B. - Much higher then whole Dutch contribution to ECB backing system.
On request of D66 fraction … about idea of selling of some part of our gold reserve… it is not clear now the exact size of external reserves that will be requested, rate exchange relations with third countries… After taking decision what EU countries will participate, during this year some operational decisions should take place… At present time relative information, received from other members is subject of analysis. - We know first results today - Belgium.
After EURO implementation, national CB’s can purchase and sale all sorts of PM, currency and obligations… In case if purchase or sale goes above some limit, transaction should be approved by ECB. This approval is needed to assure that these transactions will not have negative effect on exchange- and monetary policy of the Union.

PS Sorry, if something is wrong with my English

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 17:14
chas (Aragorn III re Euro gold backing) ID#342282:
Great post. From the dim past of gold to about 70 yrs ago, the wght and putiy of gold was the basis of evaluation of other things. It's amazing how accurately an illiterate population about 2000BC or 800 AD could handle this concept. A variety of methods to determine size, volume and purity in coins was in use. However, Gresham's Law operated long before being ascribed to him. Read THE ORIGIN OF METALLIC CURRENCY AND WEIGHT STANDARDS by William Ridgeway,MA: Singing Tree Press, Detroit or Interlibrary loan. Orig. ed. about 1895

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 17:14
JTF (Saw your post to me regarding Astronomy and T/A) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
chas: I am very interested in learning more about what you know. Much of what I have deciphered is bits and pieces from many sources. What is needed to quantify potential models is a market 'turning point indicator'. I have tried several mathematical approaches, but none are better than the old 'eyeball' so far. The best appeared to be the absolute value of the first derivative, but application to the DOW from 1917 to present -- and many hours of study -- did not come up with anything useful. My 'tidal activity' model seems more useful in detecting long-term turning points, but that is the earth-moon-sun system only. Any comments/ideas would be appreciated.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 17:13
Allen(USA) (Belgian comment on *third* phase gold reserve holdings for ECU) ID#246224:
!!!!!! 33% !!!!!!, lads. We are talking a good deal here.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 17:10
SEQUIN (TRINOVANT) ID#25171:
Many Thanks

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 17:08
jman (open interest GC=J8,) ID#251268:
cbs has it over 99,000.00 thats a MAJOR jump if it is posted correctly
and if I was watching it right it ( the jump ) came at the end of the day'
Never got much feedback but believe this must be bullish,perhaps commercials getting in,thats almost 10.000.00 new contracts today?
sidenote,I still haven't reasoned out why selling gold isn't bullish?
somebody sells that mush corn its limit up?I guess for now it is a political metal but I'm commited to keep buying the dips.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 17:05
Trinovant (ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) $320 to $360 US$ - Repost) ID#359316:
Date: Mon Mar 09 1998 07:55
...A large purchase, now, is sending another message, “bring gold back into $320 to $360 US$ range. We should see this in five to ten days. This will be a hard thing, as it may create a crush to cover...
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q1/1998_03/980309.075540.anotheree.htm

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 16:59
Suspicious (Donald_A / Historical average Dow/Gold ) ID#287312:
Do you know the historical average of the Gold/Dow ratio?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 16:58
SEQUIN ((ARAGORN III)) ID#25171:
It seems obvious that most people are not Kitco educated.Greed lead them ( falsely I recognize ) to hold to their fiat currency become it generates a return through interest rates and Gold is perceived as underperforming.The day they will realize their mistake , they will drive the POG from 850 to 4000

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 16:49
chas (BillD) ID#342282:
Plans mailed today, let me know any questions.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 16:40
John Disney__A (RSA blue sky is cheap) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
for CC
I believe you do not understand South Africa very well. You
say they have few depreciation charges .. They have NONE.
they take 100 % of their capital expenditure as a cost in the
year it is incurred as a direct cost.
Their capex is low relative to NA producers not because they
have been here for years but because new gold producing areas
can be developed at very low cost .. in the form of putting
down a new shaft a few kilometers from downtown joburg or
buying the mining rights from some bankrupt farmer on the
property next door.
NA mines must continue to use depreciation cash for new
capex ... otherwise they die fast.

ABX capex ( and subsequent depreciation ) costs are high
BECAUSE their growth is HIGH COST... they pick up a property
in the ANDES that mines at 150$/oz but have to spend 100 $
more per ounce in capex to develop it, for example.
Their Nevada operation is marvellous. But it must have
limits... and they must be seeing them .. otherwise they
would concentrate and direct their resources to low cost
development in Nevada, not high cost far flung operations.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 16:31
Donald__A (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Gold/Silver Ratio = 48.56

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 16:29
pyramid (Rambling Thoughts) ID#217268:
I am still confounded about Warren Buffett's purchase of silver and basing it offshore. Mr. ( Long Term ) Buffett must know something I don't. Why silver, why now, why offshore ?

With the exception of Sport Utility Vehicles, the price of most GOODS I would buy are falling and behaving like a commodity. On the other hand, SERVICES are rising, some with premium pricing behavior. Strange contrast.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 16:28
Donald__A (@Kitco) ID#26793:
XAU/Spot Ratio = .250

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 16:27
chas (John B ) ID#342282:
Thanx for your posts, looking forward to url

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 16:27
Donald__A (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.22 ( This is a new high )

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 16:24
Aragorn III (EURO gold backing) ID#212323:
Copyright © 1998 Aragorn III/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
How would a gold-backing work? Consider my example in which I have tweaked the numbers to make the math ( and my point ) easier to follow.
Let's say that the EURO is established as a monetary unit with an equivalent purchasing power as the USDollar--for example, 300 of either would purchase the same bicycle.
Now let's say that the EURO is given a 10% gold backing, and let's assume the commodity price of gold is $300/oz. Let us imagine that the two bicycle dealers are brothers who grew up spending more time on Kitco than on the playground, so they both prefer gold to paper cash. Each immediately chooses to exchange their proceeds from the bike sale for cold hard gold. The brother in USA walks over to the USTreasury where he is met at the door with sour looks and a stern lecture. Confused yet undaunted he finds a bullion dealer and happily completes the exchange ( one bike became US$300 which became one ounce gold ) .
The brother in Europe walks over to the Central Bank of Europe and all Hell breaks loose. Nobody knows what to do. As he turns in the $EURO300 is he given one-tenth ounce gold to represent the 10% backing and nothing else--or would ninety percent of the paper be returned also with a stamp on each stating The true value has been claimed; this note now represents only the 'confidence' portion of our monetary system? I don't think so! And what is the impact from ever-changing POG? Would the currency be fixed to gold, or would the daily 10% backing change in terms of weight redeemable!
What if he approached a bullion dealer instead; would the bullion dealer give him a full ounce and nothing else, or would he deduce that 10% of the transaction was unnecessary ( gold for gold ) so he would therefore return $EURO30 in paper and only provide nine-tenths of an ounce....or would the reaction be similar to the Central Bank?
It won't take long for *any* amount of gold backing to be revealed as the sole purchasing power contained in the monetary unit. The 'confidence' portion of the currency will disolve and it will rapidly become apparent that 0.10 oz gold equals one bike, and no-one will accept USDollars without an equal amount of gold thrown into the deal. Along the same line of thought, a 1% gold backing would show that a bike is equivalent to one-hundredth ounce of gold.
If you held solid gold and gave public perception a chance to uncloud the decades of confusion from fiscal legerdemain, I'm sure you will find the puchasing power of gold will eventually be greatly multiplied. The fiat system of currencies will slowly ( or quickly?! ) be brought to its knees by any amount of gold backing of a major trading currency. The first question the public will ask is Why do we need a gold backing for our money? The next question to follow will be OK, then why is it only a partial backing; what backs the rest of it? The next question is If a bullion dealer will redeem 100% of the paper face-value for gold but the Central Bank will only recognize 10% convetability, why would any sane bullion dealer give up his gold for 90% confidence? And the next action would be Well heck, as long as they are crazy enough to exchange at 100% lets all race down to the bullion dealer!! Big demand drives price of gold up, 10% backing of the EURO gets smaller in terms of weight, and the mad dance continues until the realization sets in that gold is money in terms of weight alone, and no other form of payment will compare ( short of cumbersome bartering ) .

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 16:13
John Disney__A (capital expenditure is a cost of doing business) ID#24135:
For Carpe Aurem and CC
If depreciation is not a cash cost that neither
is capex. In that case compare RSA mines without capex
against NA mines without depreciation. Im simply trying
to keep it simple.. ie..RSA mines incuding capex as a
cost and NA mines incuding depreciation as a cost. Earnings
are earnings ... your cash flow point is a delusion.
If ABX had not been hedged at 400 and had been hedged
at 350 instead .. it would have made a loss in 1997.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 16:09
robnoel__A (Numismatic update as per this weeks CDN: The demand for Gold remains strong for all grades and all) ID#410198:
denominations.Dealers report that they have a number of buyers interested in quanties.Unfortunately for dealers,they have been finding the pickings slim.And as competition increases,so will the Bids

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 16:04
Speed (James and Old Gold on Oil) ID#28861:
The principals are talking about lowering production. They do this from time to time and nothing results. The Saudis are mad at the Venezuelans and everybody is pumping as much as they can because they are greedy. The news today is good, I'll believe it when they actually cut production. Until then the price is going down with occasional short covering rallies like today. Give the speculators a chance to catch their breath and down she goes. They've been doing it to gold for two years!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:59
Speed (CC on SWC) ID#28861:
Copyright © 1998 Speed/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I got this from the Yahoo message board on SWC:

I listened in on the company conference call after earnings were reported last month....the new management sounded very, very reluctant to enter into any further forward selling contracts. In fact they had not entered into any at the time of the call. Of interest, they stated that their five year plan is to produce a million ozs. per year of PGMs....thats Russian level production.
I have forgotten exactly when they said that they would return to positive earnings but I'm pretty sure it was supposed to be the coming quarter. The call was definitely interesting, and was available on tape for about a week after earnings.

SWC price is up from a recent low of $16 per share. That's a 38% rise already! Give the new management team a quarter or two and I think you'll be happy. Palladium is very volatile in price and I'm not sure that they can hedge at these high prices. BBL

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:53
Bill Buckler (Gold Bounce) ID#256381:
Here's the Open, High, Low, and Close on April Gold from CBS Marketwatch
O $292.70 H $292.90 L $287.30 C $291.60


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:36
chas (JTF re yours 12:37 and 13:58) ID#342282:
Copyright © 1998 chas/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I think you are on to something which I have made efforts at for years. No luck at connections yet. It seems a connection among neurophysiology, an objective, competent astronomer/astrologer and a genial mathematician may result in some quantifiable data. I believe there's enough talent on this forum to try. It depends on how wide their perspective is and how much cooperation is available. A good approach to a wider perspective on T/A. I like it. I feel it's based on the herd. Volume merchandising, hi level markets and natural events have one common denominator-- masses of people. What is the coefficient of reception? Maybe an appropriate programmer would help. Hope your work can follow. Thanx

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:36
chas (JTF re yours 12:37 and 13:58) ID#342282:
Copyright © 1998 chas/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I think you are on to something which I have made efforts at for years. No luck at connections yet. It seems a connection among neurophysiology, an objective, competent astronomer/astrologer and a genial mathematician may result in some quantifiable data. I believe there's enough talent on this forum to try. It depends on how wide their perspective is and how much cooperation is available. A good approach to a wider perspective on T/A. I like it. I feel it's based on the herd. Volume merchandising, hi level markets and natural events have one common denominator-- masses of people. What is the coefficient of reception? Maybe an appropriate programmer would help. Hope your work can follow. Thanx

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:36
James (Speed@Low POO) ID#252150:
I agree that the POO will stay low--probably under 14 avg for at least 6-12 months. Saudi Arabia refuses to be the swing producer & wants to ensure that non-opec production will decrease. I reluctantly sold some of my jr oil/ng Cos, even though their emphasis is on ng. 14 POO will ensure that most Cos make major cuts in their exploration/drilling budgets.

Hi Ted

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:32
CC (Speed on SWC) ID#334219:
By year-end, SWC will be completely unhedged and soaring, IMHO There has to be more than that to current SWC shares languishing price. With the higher Pt/Pdl prices, SWC has the possibility to enter new long term hedges therefore locking immense profits. I am not saying that they should, but saying that the fact is they can. And this should be recognize right now by the market. It is not. Why ?


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:27
CC (Carpe Aurem on SA Gold) ID#334219:
That is my understanding as well.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:24
John B__A (Delphi) ID#77133:
My source for Netherlands gold was 06/97. It stated that Netherlands held 781 tons after their January 1997 sale ( 300 tons ) and that this represented 22.1% of their total reserves.

Is it possible that Netherlands also has gold on deposit at the European Monetary Institute ( EMI ) that would not be included in the 781 figure? For example, I noticed in the Belgium announcement that they now hold 177.5 tons PLUS 191 tons at the EMI. None of this is crucial information to know but its worth knowing the facts. I will look for the website you'll post later.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:20
robnoel__A (6pak.(vast right-wing conspiracy)) ID#410198:
.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:16
6pak (robnoel) ID#335190:
You got me, what is VRWC? I am Gone, duty calls. BBL
Take care

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:16
Speed (Carpe Aurem and SWC) ID#28861:
Stillwater's hedging program is terrible and it ends this year. Their palladium production is 60% hedged for this year and that will be 60% completed by June. They mine 4 or 5 times more palladium than platinum and are increasing production of both. SWC is held by several funds and suffers when the mutual funds have waves of redemptions. I still hold some shares, so I am pro-SWC. By year-end, SWC will be completely unhedged and soaring, IMHO.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:15
John B__A (Chas) ID#77133:
I don't know how those dispositions were handled. I did read somewhere however that though perhaps 800 to 1,000 tons of CB gold was sold last year, there was about 400-500 tons of offsetting gold purchases by other CBs in Arab and various small countries.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:13
NJ (PEI) ID#20748:
Copyright © 1998 NJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Two crucial support levels described by Martin Armstrong behaved in a very similar fashion in yesterday and today's trading. For Crude Oil the support level of 13.25 was breached yesterday, followed by a smart recovery today. For Gold the support level of 289.9 was breached this morning, in European trading, followed by a recovery in Comex.

This is what Martin Armstrong has to say in Conclusion about Crude Oil.

Crude Oil appears weak on a near term outlook with support at 15.06 and 13.25 on a yearly basis. A January/February low is likely to produce a reaction high in March with another test of the previous lows from february during the June time frame followed by a strong rally into September. Resistance stands at 20.82 and 21.14 followed by 24.66.

Although the short term outlook for Crude is week, long term indicators remain very bullish for the years beyond 1998.

This is not what the talking heads of CNBC are telling their audience.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:12
6pak (Ted) ID#335190:
Hi Ted.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:10
Carpe Aurem (@Disney and CC) ID#339292:
Copyright © 1998 Carpe Aurem/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
This is a good argument. CC is right, Dis, depreciation charges are not cash charges and generally do not come into play in NA evaluation methods. CC, your point about old SA mines incurring very little depreciation is a good one, but let's not forget that every year, these mines do incur capital expenditures ( for upgrades, etc. ) and all these costs must be depreciated over life-of-mine as well.

My own research leads me to believe that SA mines just do not have the ability to generate the kind of cash flow that NA Co.s' mines do ( if this is a cash flow argument ) .

Lest we forget SA Mines Minister's comments a couple of months ago stating that 14 mines would be closed if gold prices did not improve rapidly. This tells me that these 14 mines are mostly cash flow negative right now.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:09
Ted (Good afternoon) ID#330175:
Fitzpatrick!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:08
Adrian (KRY Crystallex trading halted 11:09am@$4.50 down $-2.65) ID#254159:
Testing Posting with this news.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:07
Ted (James & ABX) ID#330175:
I'm with ya bro~~~~~~~~~~

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:04
lakefoil (DROOY) ID#318183:
Polarbear - I don't know if you are aware that the chairman of Durban Deep ( drooy ) is the new head of Rangold ( rangy )

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 15:00
robnoel__A (6pak so you are a member of the VRWC,funny thing with the outrage over Ken Starr) ID#410198:
and the grand jury,explains the public does not understand in the eyes of the law you are guilty until proven innocent

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:53
POLARBEAR (several responses and some rambling...) ID#183109:
Copyright © 1998 POLARBEAR/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Lock&Lode ( @POLARBEAR RE: your 06:15--Clicked on the URL and can't open )

You need to follow the directions posted on the line below the link. Bart, who owns this site, wrote a program that disables any link to the GOLDen EAGLE web site, thus any posted link shows up with an extra EN in it, rendering it inop. It’s a hassle for all of us, especially you “new” guys and gals. Hopefully he’ll turn it off someday. I think the point has been made….



VRONSKY, your 12:37 is a classic! Especially loved your comment to S.A. mining execs…“IF YOU REFUSE TO TOOT YOUR OWN HORN, THEN HIRE SOMEONE FROM MADISON AVENUE ( NEW YORK CITY ) TO DO IT FOR YOU. Incidentally, it may save your job!



Quixotic 1 ( DROOY-RANGY ) @ 10:05

Regarding your request for another article, I spent nearly ALL my free time over the past two or three weeks researching and writing that RANGY report. As Vronsky alluded to, it will be a while before I donate that much time to spreading the word for the S.A. execs that don’t have the foresight to do so, but I will try to give you some more quick info that you requested…. ( its approaching 5am here in Japan and I do need some sleep before the “day” job, luckily I’m not flying today or I’d be in bed right now.



Regarding DURBAN’s reserves: proven underground ore of 24.7 million tons at 7.3 g/t, another 24.4 million tons of probable reserves at 8.4 g/t, and inferred reserves of 32.5 million tons at 7.1 g/t for a total of 19.8 million ounces. In addition, there are also an additional 3 million ounces of gold in surface reserves, to the figure is actually closer to 23 million ounces. I felt very comfortable including this figure in my article, as other sources ( Blanchard, Gold Newsletter ) if I’m thinking correctly at this late hour, had the number closer to 40 million, and thus I choose to go with the more conservative number. With Harmony, I’ll let John give the data if he has it since he wrote both the Durban and Harmony sections of the article. Fire me off an email at rangy@usa.net and I’ll get the specific details on the 40 million Durban ounces to you when I get a chance.



To your question of “Is the market wrong?” ABSOLUTELY. Just like the guy who sold me his/her DURBAN shares for 1 ½ in December and then bought them back from me north of 3 ½ a few weeks later, you can’t tell me that DURBAN suddenly became twice as VALUEable in a month, thus I’d say that the market is often wrong. As Vronsky eluded to, most don’t have the facts when it comes to mining companies, especially S.A. ones, and thus do their investing using crystal ball technology. RANGY is grossly underpriced at current levels, and I’m keeping my money there until the market more accurately values all of their holdings.



In regards to your question “How does the local venue interpret environmental and human rights issues?.” Randgold has been a leader in the mining community with respect to its workers, and have been very innovative in increasing workers’ pay with improved production, so all parties involved are happy.



With environmental issues, you can’t get much more environmental than RANGY’S asset CROWN CONSOLIDATED. As RANGY’S chairman put it in reference to Crown and the environment, “We are part of the solution, not part of the problem.” And in fact, Crown’s newly discovered preconcentration process was a DIRECT result of efforts to clean up a huge track of land near the Crown plant. This new extraction technology shows promise of extracting the left over gold from millions or BILLIONS? of tons of waste tailings all over S.A. and the world for that matter, as cheaply as $53 an ounce!! Even if they miss their target THREE fold, can you imagine the profit involved in expanding this globally and reclaiming gold at $160 an ounce? $$$$$$$$$$.

OK, enough rambling, going back to bed. Good luck with your RANGY, DROOY assets. Glad to have you as a fellow shareholder.


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:52
Carpe Aurem (@Rube) ID#339292:
The problem with Stillwater, my friend, is that they have become obligated to the most horrendous hedging program in existence for any mining company that I am aware of. Somewhere down the line, some financial genius at SWC decided to lock in disgustingly low prices for their pt and pd contracts and now they can't get out of them. Only when their obligation is complete can that company begin to perform. Unfortunately, I think they still have at least to the end of 98, if not further ahead than that. Crying shame really.

acb.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:49
SEQUIN (thoughts) ID#25171:
Copyright © 1998 SEQUIN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Energy,metals and other commodities are cheap.PER are skyhigh and the pile of outstanding debt ( Governments-corporates-consumers ) is so large that even AG must have nightmares.
It seems that the world can borrow its way out of any trouble ( ref ASIA ) and hidden liabilities won't be crucial for another 20 years ( ref retirement benefits )
I would like to believe that finacial chaos is at hand, but even if inflation in financial assets and unprecedented amounts of debt ( both are linked of course ) could generate a collapse per se, I think that our ever more pervasive central bankers/ gvt agencies would find a way to overcome a temporary confidence crisis.After all, they make the rules . They can even forbid honest people to accumulate Gold, so dig my friends.
Redemptions lies in something bigger and old Europe might help.
Europe is on the verge of monetary unification.However, 55% of german and french ( the core of EEC ) people are against it and 10% undecided .The experiment will start Jan 1st 1999.The result is: already unsutainable levels of unumployment and the subsidizing of the world most expensive social security program.Political leaders and shadowy figures need a real life laboratory and they pay their people to keep quiet.
Debt to GDP and public deficits in % of GDP official ratios are manipulated.Any slight turnaround in the world economy ( and there might be a big one ) will make Europe's situation as unbearable as Japan's.
Even without a sharp decline in world growth , we have to notice that there is no fiscal or social harmonization in Europe.Hence, with a single currency, companies will move from one country to another to optimize fiscal pressure.
Unemployment will rise in non competitive countries and will lead to the eventual collapse of EEC.Polls show unprecedented support for the far right and ,to me , civil war is very likely in 5 to 10 years in continental Europe.
In anticipation of that day of reckoning GO GOLD!

Could anybody give me the date and time of ANOTHER's post where he implies Gold level between 320/360?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:47
NJ (June Gold) ID#20748:
My last post was obviously incorrect. June Gold finished Down 1.00.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:46
robnoel__A (silverbaron & tyro,$79.80 for BU sov's is fair market value,I can't get any so be carefull out there) ID#410198:
.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:42
lakefoil (RYO post - hope this is helpful) ID#318183:
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=yahoo.fe.12.7079308&topicid=0m2&msgid=6ep71d$36h$1@m2.yahoo.com>http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=yahoo.fe.12.7079308&topicid=0m2&msgid=6ep71d$36h$1@m2.yahoo.com

So how come RYO doesn;t open?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:38
chas (John B re your 12:52) ID#342282:
Interesting compilation. Do you or anyone know HOW MUCH:
Announced and not sold, rearrangement among banks, arbitrage. and what went to market sales? Thanx

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:38
James (ABX@Looks like it will close below it's 24 day MA (27.50) Cdn) ID#252150:
But I'm not selling & will be buying the dips. If my worse case scenario
happens--250 POG, ABX will be 1 of the few survivors & after cherry picking the best jrs, will emerge stronger than ever. I think that there is 30% downside risk, but the potential for a triple from there.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:36
OLD GOLD (oil) ID#238295:
Speed: Make no mistake -- something will be done and soon. The establishment will see to it. Never forget who gives the Saudis, Kuwaitis and Venezualans their marching orders. I say again -- oil equities would be much lower if the market thought $7 was a real possibility.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:35
CC (NA Golds vs SA Gold) ID#334219:
There is one element that makes your method of calculating real costs invalid. And that is depreciation. NA Gold stocks have high depreciation charges ( ABX is US$70/ounce ) . SA Gold have very small or almost no such charges. The reason is simple. SA Mine have been there for decades. The real important thing in mining is the ability to generate cash so the company can continue exploration and discover new mines. That is why the mining biz ( and the oils as well ) in NA is evaluated on a cash flow basis not on net earnings.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:33
NJ (June Gold Up .40) ID#20748:
http://www.dbc.com/htx/dbc/squote.htx?SOURCE=htx%2Fdbc&TICKER=gc%3Dg8&tables=table

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:32
6pak (ALBERICH @ Federal Reserve & FREEMAN ---Also Mozel & Admiralty Law) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Freemen Take on the Courts
by Charles Overbeck...Matrix Editor... ( PSCPirhana@aol.com )

http://www.parascope.com/mx/0996/freemen1.htm

The Common Law movement in this country is badly misunderstood by the media and the public at large, and the claims made by its proponents fall on ears deafened by decades of judiciary stupor.

...................Federal venue? What the hell is that?

Basically, there are two types of citizenship in our country. If you are a sovereign Citizen with a capital C, then you fall under the jurisdiction of the constitutional Republic of the united States of America. Which means -- assuming you've done your research correctly, and have legally severed all ties to the corporate government -- you don't have to pay taxes, carry a license, and so forth.

By the same token, you won't be getting any Social Security payments in your old age, or any other benefits from the federal government. You're on your own; you're a sovereign, and your law is the Common Law, stretching back across the centuries to the Magna Carta. That's freedom in America, take it or leave it.

The other type of citizenship is the lower-case c citizen, which exists under the jurisdiction of the federal democracy of the United States of America corporation. Which means, whatever statutes the Congress passes, you obey. You get benefits, but you get restrictions on your rights as well. Supposedly, any statute which violates the Constitution is eventually set right or tossed out.

In reality, only the most egregious assaults on our rights, such as the Telecommunications Decency Act, are ever rescinded. The petty violations continue to pile up, like the funky buildup inside old plumbing. This is the world which most of us inhabit, the world of the citizen of the federal democracy.

That's a gross oversimplification, of course; for a much more detailed explanation, complete with legal citations, peruse the weblinks accompanying this article.

Schweitzer, Danny Peterson and the other Freemen sovereigns are Citizens under the Common Law venue. In order to prosecute them under the fraud and other charges brought against them, the defacto United States District Court must find a way to draw them into federal venue. Which means, they must find some trick with which to snare the Freemen.

MOZEL: Are You a FREEMAN ? They also use your reference to Admiralty Law.

Through several hearings, the Freemen managed to dodge the numerous pitfalls of ****Admiralty Law.****

FWIW...Take Care.... GO FREEMAN.... GO GOLD..In Friendship, Mozel eh!.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:31
Speed (Old Gold, WSJ on Oil) ID#28861:
-
March 18, 1998




Crude Oil Climbs on Rumors
That Oil Producers Will Meet
An INTERACTIVE JOURNAL News Roundup


NEW YORK -- Crude oil recovered a bit from its nine-year lows Wednesday on rumors of an imminent meeting between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC oil producers.

There were reports that there would be a meeting in Riyadh this weekend between OPEC members and non-OPEC oil producers to discuss cutting production to bring about a recovery in historically low crude oil prices. The reports were later denied by a Gulf source, but there are still conflicting reports circulating through the market.

There is confusion over this issue, and that should generate some short-covering as bears trim positions in case the reports, which are bullish, turn out to be true, said Victor Yu, an energy analyst with Refco Inc.

Bullish oil inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Department of Energy also prompted some short-covering Wednesday.

The API report, released Tuesday evening, showed crude oil stocks dropping 1.331 million barrels during the week ended March 13. The DOE report, which was released early Wednesday morning, showed a larger draw of 2.1 million barrels. Many analysts had expected crude oil stocks to climb.

In late morning trading, April crude oil was up 26 cents to $13.47 a barrel, while May crude oil added 27 cents to $13.77 a barrel.

Among petroleum products, April unleaded gasoline gained 0.91 cent to 45.80 and April heating oil rose 0.52 cent to 39 cents a gallon. April natural gas was up 0.1 cent at $2.156 per million BTUs.

Wednesday's early recovery continued a rebound near the close of Tuesday's trading when April crude dropped to a new, nine-year low of $12.80 a barrel at midsession.

The president of Venezuela's oil monopoly, Petroleos de Venezuela SA, sparked a slight recovery in crude oil values Tuesday when he said Caracas would agree to initiatives being discussed that would pull between 1.5 million-2.5 million barrels of both OPEC and non-OPEC production from the world market.

Venezuela, OPEC's most notorious overproducer, has maintained that it will not agree to any OPEC measures to cut production unless non-OPEC producers agreed to cut their production.



Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:27
John Disney__A (we're taking about MONEY not accounting) ID#24135:
for cc
Take the ABX annual statement ...
take their revenue then subtract their profits ( or add their
losses ) . ( adjust for any non-recurring once off costs )

Then you have their TOTAL cost without accounting
bullsh!t. ... then divide by their total production of gold.
... you then have their total average cost per oz.

Then do the same thing for a south african company.
Please do not attempt to baffle the troops with
accounting pseudo science.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:19
Delphi (@John B__A re Dutch CB gold reserves) ID#258129:
John B__A, 11:38: I have checked Dutch Ministry of Finance web site. Both figures - 1200 and 781 tons are wrong. I have found a document - letter of CB Governor to Chairman of Lower House of Dutch Parliament dated Jan 30, 1998. In this letter CB stated that current gold reserves of Netherlands are 1052 tons. There is some other interesting information there regarding gold backing of EMU. I shall post it later, have to go now.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:16
Silverbaron (Tyro @ Sov's) ID#289357:

I misread your original prices - The XF/AU coins look like $8 less than my source - 11% over bullion - This is REALLY GOOD! I was basing my previous remarks on the $79 price/ea.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:16
Speed (Supply and Demand) ID#28861:
Old Gold: Current oil production is between 1 and 2 million barrels per day more than usage. Unless and until this surplus is curtailed, oil will go lower. Tanks are full, oil is being dumped at the spot market and Iraq is getting spare parts to repair their infrastructure, which will add even more oil to already glutted markets. As they used to say on the old Batman serial..The worst is yet to come. I am watching what they do at the pumps, not at the futures desks. U.S. producers are cutting back some, but it's not enough.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:15
MoReGoLd (@USAGOLD: 71% of the voting power in the new EMU resides with Germany, France and Italy) ID#348286:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
  MARKET UPDATE ( 3/18/98 ) AM---- In the gold market this morning, COMEX gold stocks are up a whopping 89,484 ounces. The Belgians announced that they had sold an additional 299 tons of gold from its reserves in the past few months. The sales were channeled through five other central banks. This explains gold's rangebound behavior in recent months. There is another rumor floating the market that Netherlands was selling gold as well. Both had said previously that their gold reserves were high relative to needs for the upcoming European Monetary Union. Gold expert James Turk points out in the March issue of Gold & Money Report that he suspected the Dutch and/or the Belgian central banks of selling gold forward earlier this year for delivery in March. Perhaps it was the Belgian bank and not the Dutch doing the selling. We would have to assume that the 89,484 ounce uptick at COMEX has to do with that contracted delivery. Says Turk, It has been my contention -- which was well stated in these letters in the ending months of last year -- that central banks dishoarded some 500-800 tonnes of Gold in 1997. This weight of Gold equals about 25% to 40% of annual production, so it would be a considerable amount of Gold for the market to absorb. He goes on to say that the low Gold price is an aberration resulting from one-off central bank transactions which are now complete, and that higher prices will return this year as the market recognizes that further European dishoarding is unlikely. Keep in mind that lease rates have jumped since the sales have completed adding credence to Turk's argument. After the dust settles, it will be interesting to see what the gold market decides to do. As he points out, 71% of the voting power in the new EMU resides with Germany, France and Italy, who also own 73% of Europe's gold. Gold policies from here on out should be decidedly bullish in Europe. Central bankers and finance ministers from all three countries have come down in favor of gold playing a central role in the euro. Mr Turk ends with this: As the market begins to recognize the importance of the pro-gold view of the 'big three'...higher gold prices will likely be the result....I still expect 1998 will prove to be a good year for gold. Have a good day fellow goldmesiters. This will likely be it for the day.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:10
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
Looking like cattle is going to be next in line for a decent move up. Won't require much more to find out.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:10
Silverbaron (Tyro @ Sov's) ID#289357:

Your price is abt $4.00 less than the major supplier that I deal with - the XF/AU coins sound great to me @ only 15% over the price of bullion. If you would like to share the name of the source, email me @

silverdolr@webtv.net

TIA

Tom

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:09
2BR02B? (@banana slicks) ID#266105:

!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:04
Donald__A (Indonesian cabinet member designate had 30% stake in Bre-X) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980313/indonesia__8.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:04
OLD GOLD (oil) ID#238295:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
As I pointed out yesterday Wayne Angell's forecast of $7 oil will be one of his many big bloopers. Just as Glenn was way too bullish near the peak, so is Angell way too bearish near the trough.

Any idiot could see that Angell was blowing smoke. If the market was seriously concerned about $7 oil, oil stocks would have been smashed very badly instead of taking a rather modest hit.

The fact is that the US -- which calls the shots re: Saudi oil policies -- wants black gold to trade between $15 and $20. Movements much above or below these limits trigger strong countermeasures.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:04
Tyro (Sov's) ID#36977:
Was thinking of buying 50 or so sov's and called different co's previously recommended herein -- thanx to all who posted favorites.

Best prices I've found are $us 75.00 ea for circ ( XF/AU ) and $us 79.80 for BU, both delivered. Any discussion regarding the merits of the two?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:04
CC (DIsney on ABX) ID#334219:
ABX has total cash costs ( including operating costs, royalties and production taxes as well as income tax ) of some US$250 per ounce. Could it be that Harmony has a better number than that ?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 14:03
NJ (Three greens to one pink) ID#20748:
in the frame above cannot last for long. Look at Platinum.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:59
Rob (gold close up) ID#410114:
If gold closes up today dispite an announced central bank sale this would be a big change. Also, yesterday I sold some gold shares; at the low?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:58
JTF (Gold manipulation vs Fibonacci series, 1.618,etc.) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
SilverBaron: I think any 'natural' process can be distorted if pushed hard enough. Human free will I think can override the natural market forces -- for a time, at least -- with the degree of distortion from equilibrium reflecting the amount of 'energy' necessary. One thing I have not done is run the wavelet analysis program on daily gold prices to see if the Fibonacci series comes out. My guess is that I will find that it will not during periods of CB gold manipulation. This would fit with your comments of Rebecca Nolan's poor track record with gold. By the way, I would guess that evidence for the Fibonacci series in daily gold prices might be an indicator of the lack of gold price manipulation. Unfortunately, it would probably turn out to be a lagging indicator.

I have extracted a reasonable facsimile of the Fibonacci series from time series analysis of the DOW ( 1992-1994 ) . What has her track record been with the DOW?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:55
John Disney__A (dont believe everything you read) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
for John B

The AVERAGE cost for most SA gold
mines is well under the average costs
of most NA mines. Ive posted so many
times on this it has become very
boring for me. I suggest you take
some earnings statement and calculate
the AVERAGE cost for ABX and then
say Harmony one of the best RSA mines
( or Beatrix if you want to make your
eyes glaze over ) .
Harmony's resources have risen more
than 3 times in the last 3 years, yet
people think of ABX as a growth stock.
Harmony also has lower average costs than
ABX. ABX is a growth stock because it
TELLS you so. It did one thing well.
It locked in some crazy offtaker who
took all the 1997 production at 400$.
I wish that guy would provide a few words
of explanation on Kitco.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:54
TYoung (CBS) ID#317193:
Gold off $.50- oil going up. Tom

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:47
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
It would seem that the oils and gasoline got a wee bit more expensive today. Unleaded gas up 3 cents! Crude up at/near one, and heating oil up at/near two. Interesting what happens in very oversold markets. Oh, and hogs up near 2 cents! And then we have silver banging its head on $6! Anybody not think that 'things' just may be gearing up for 'changes' ahead? Perhaps major change in direction of the physical commodities?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:46
chas (Vronsky re Merchandising) ID#342282:
I would like to talk to you about this. Phone 704 433 6473 or email to cdevoto@conninc.com Thanx for your help, Charlie

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:43
STUDIO.R (I'm a Soil Man...da...da...da.da.....) ID#288369:
I got what I got through hard work...and I make it better each and every day.....Sam and Dave, Atlantic Records. Oil up a buck...I'm back. Come on GOLD....join the party. Viva Caracas....Viva Caracas!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:42
6pak (ALBERICH @ 12:55 ( Alberich the Dwarf) inside the Mountain - You Mountain man?) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
http://ultimate.org/law/rolc/roll/shannon.htm

BILLINGS OR BEIJING By J. Patrick Shannan Copyright 1996

What does the government fear? Captured Freemen LeRoy Schweitzer and Dan Petersen say the reason is obvious: The government does not want the people of America to learn of our lawful stand.

***A Controller Warrant*** is the same type instrument used by people in the livestock or grain business. They are called drafts and are drawn on somebody's line of credit. The Freemen had sued and gained a legitimate line of credit up to 17 trillion dollars with hard assets to back it up ~ far better than the imaginary credit extended by the Federal Reserve and its 16,000 commercial banks around the country.

Schweitzer picked up a batch of lien draft forms which were designated after the same forms used by the Federal Reserve Banks for credit/deposits, filled one in for seventy seven million dollars, and deposited it to his account.

To everyone's amazement except his own, the draft deposit was cleared by the bank, and LeRoy's account was credited accordingly. He then began to write lien drafts payable to various banks and government agencies such as the IRS to satisfy imaginary debts which had been created from arbitrary assessments.

Schweitzer believed in the Biblical Law of repaying a debt in double, which he did not covetously hog it all for himself. His goal was to expose the fraud in the Fed's credit money system.

In every case, when the drafts were presented to the IRS and credit institutions for the extra amount, the original draft cleared and a refund for the difference was sent by check or credited to the senders account. Later, when the federal prosecutor and the news media began to accuse the Freemen of writing bogus checks, it was not as honest report.

Until this issue is adjudicated in an unbiased court of law, the world cannot know whether or not the liens were illegal and the checks bogus.

Schweitzer and Petersen want it to be tried in an honest court because they know that, if all the facts can come out, they win--regardless of the outcome. Either what they are doing is legal and honest and the Freemen are a total of 17 trillion wealthier than they were, or else the whole system is illegal and the have managed finally to expose this fact to the American people.

They already know that the latter is the correct answer to the question but realize that they must not sit in jail on any such criminal charge unless Alan Greenspan is their cellmate ~ a sentence they would joyfully serve, if it would free the American people from the stranglehold of fiat money and get gold and silver coin circulating in the starts again.

FYI...I Hope it is a help..I also wondered how the money was transfered from the Fed to the individual banks. This material may help, I do not understand the issue in it's fullness.

This Freeman has stated He will be convinced forever that it was God who explained the procedure of ***Controller Warrants*** to him and where to find them in the law.


These Freemen are presently being tried in some court, some where, I caught the end of a news piece, reporting these Freemen had trashed a court room, and were being tried without their appearence in the court room. FWIW.

Take Care

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:38
Pete (ALBERICH - WELCOME!) ID#222231:
YOU MAY BE A DWARF, BUT YOU HAVE THE BRAINS OF A GIANT.

P.S. BE PREPARED TO GET TRASHED.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:38
Auric (Chimps Go on Rampage in France) ID#255151:

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/031898/world31_6664.html They were upset over the Belgian Gold sales!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:37
Silverbaron (OLD GOLD) ID#289357:

Yes, it seems the market is finally realizing that these CB sales go mostly from bank to bank and never hit the mainstream. When the market finally doesn't react at all to such an announcement, the tide will have turned.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:36
TYoung (A Day To Remember?) ID#317193:
CBS shows gold only off $.80 and oil moving up. Something is going on! VERY INTERESTING. Tom

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:35
robnoel__A (The answers to a lot of questions here today,can be found article on gold) ID#410198:
http://www.fame.org/fedwatch/Fedwatchb.htm

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:32
A.Goose () ID#20137:
Just dropped in for a second. Does anyone have the spot prices for the pm's. Looks like Bart's are stuck again.


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:31
clone (Welcome Alberich the Dwarf from the mountain.) ID#269245:
This bearish day has yielded many insightful contributions. Thank you to all!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:25
chevy (John B) ID#287358:

Thank you very much for that post on the Belgium sale. I read a news report a fews ago that Rothchild had suggested that Cb's sales were ruining the minning industry. He suggested using the aution method to improve liquity in the gold market. It was never explained to me at least, how the aution method would would work. I think the Belgium sale is the begining of this method. I'm not in a position to know. I can only take a good guess. Since, the intention was to improve liquity I would take your post as very bullish.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:24
Silverbaron (John B) ID#289357:

Although the cash costs of many of the South African Mines are ( and have been ) historically high, reorganization within the local gold mining industry and within individual companies is doing an excellent job of reducing these costs.

In the latest quarterly report of DROOY ( ending Dec 31 ) , for example, they show an 8% reduction in cash cost for gold production in one quarter, and have cut cash losses by 96% ( this in a down gold market ) . Many more changes are in the works to conserve cash pending higher gold prices in the future.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:19
rube (Swc) ID#333127:
With plat. and pall. up so much today i would expect SWC to do better than 1/16. Anybody have any insight as to why the lack of forward progress or are the metal stks that far out of favor. Any movement with SA plat. stks ?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:16
OLD GOLD (Word to the wise) ID#238295:
Gold's action today has got to be a big disapointment for the bears. Most of the sharp early loss has been recovered. Market reaction to CB selling MUCH LESS THAN IT USED TO BE.

Let us never forget that the 1993 gold bull commenced in earnest when POG refused to go down further on news of CB selling.

Vronsky: You used to be ultra bearish on SA golds. Why the change of heart?

John: The quality gold producers indeed will lead the first phase of the next gold bull. But the juniors and the South Africans will perform far better later in the up cycle.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:14
John B__A (Clone) ID#211105:
Copyright © 1998 John B__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Your post unfortunately puts a negative spin on the Verpatse quote as follows:

``In the third phase of EMU ( economic and monetary union ) the amount of external reserves held will be five to six times higher
than the amount which will be transferred to the European Central Bank and one third of these external reserves will consist of
gold,'' Verplaetse said.

This says to me that Belgium, in its own reserves will be holding one-third in gold. The previous quote ( I posted ) said that the ECB would be holding one-third of its reserves in gold. Its unfortunately safer these days to always take a negative interpretation.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:11
robnoel__A (Alberich,if you have been lurking you may have seen this) ID#410198:
http://www.oregontrail.net/~mmontagne/mcfadden.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:10
IDT (PEI gold analysis) ID#375252:
NJ: Yes I'm anticipating the next issure from Princeton on the PMs. I understand it was to be shipped on March 6 but Armstrong decided to hold it back and add to it.

Silver, Platinum, and Paladium all bouncing back nicely. Go gold!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:05
John B__A (Vronsky) ID#211105:
Copyright © 1998 John B__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Very interesting comments on SA golds. However doesn't your comment below refer really to the tremendous leverage of SA companies when gold goes well above $300. My understanding is their raw cash operating costs are $300 per ounce and that SA mines will go broke if the market stays at $300. Whereas high grade American equities have a cash cost of $200 or less and can make earnings at this level.

On second thought we may never make a buck if gold stays at $300 or less, so why not hang-out and buy the SA companies!

Vronsky If history is prologue, those who make the effort to be informed of the relative investment statistics of South African gold stocks vis-à-vis their well-marketed and well-publicized competitors across the 'Big-Pond, will indeed be the MOST REWARDED. Since the mid-1960s every single gold bull market has witnessed South African gold stocks SOAR 300-400%, while their North-American and Australian counter-parts climbed a 'paltry 90-110%.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 13:03
clone (Allen, the praise you have received on this forum is...) ID#269245:
-
well deserved. Thank you for your insightfulness. Allen does not take a news report for face value, he questions it and considers its implications. This is definately not bearish for gold, despite the report seems to imply at the surface. The following is the most informative report that I have read concerning the operation ( sale? )
~~~~~~
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/belgium_go_3.html

The programme has been finished entirely. In order to avoid any impact on prices in the gold market, these operations were carried out exclusively with different central banks, Verplaetse said, leaving it unclear if the gold had remained with the other central banks or been sold on.

It has not influenced prices on the gold market and neither the liquidity of the monetary market, Verplaetse told a news conference.
~~~~~~~~~~
I am not aware of any central banks that would be purchasing gold right now, so I am inclined to agree with Allen that the sale was made to a third party, perhaps an entity familiar to the reknown Another. The fact that this programme has been interpreted by our trusted reporters as a sale instead of a purchase has reflected negatively on the gold market. In fact, this is a truly remarkable purchase by a major investing entity who/that did not want to adversely influence the market while collecting the purchase. Had this been played out on the markets, we would almost definately seen a rise in gold spot. I also think it is important to note that Belgium is done with the selling gold. Things to watch for would be more sales from other European banks concerning
~~~~~~~~
In the third phase of EMU ( economic and monetary union ) the amount of external reserves held will be five to six times higher than the amount which will be transferred to the European Central Bank and one third of these external reserves will consist of gold,'' Verplaetse said.
~~~~~~~~
Things to watch for would be more sales from other European banks concerning the established EMU gold reserve. Now, let's hope that the gold market recognizes that this was actually a large purchase by a serious investor, as well as an attempt for Belgium to ease its debt.

CONGRATULATIONS to Another and whomever the wise investor was. I bet your new stash looks mighty impressive!! Remember not to keep it under your bed! - c

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:59
Silverbaron (Aura @ R. Nolan) ID#289357:

No URL for her, sorry. - I spent quite some time searching for this several months ago before a friend faxed me a copy of her gold chart ( the one I've been examining ) . However I did receive another solicitation in the snail mail the other day - which has her U.S. mailing address and fax number:

Rebecca Nolan, Editor

FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY

12254 Nicollet Avenue South

Burnsville, Minnesota 55337

Fax: 1-612-895-5526

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:55
chas (Belgian gold trade or what) ID#342282:
If it was arbitrage, it should be a complete washout-- no market effect

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:55
ALBERICH__A (Dollar Creation/ Gold/ Oil) ID#212197:
Copyright © 1998 ALBERICH__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I'm new here. My name is Alberich the Dwarf. I’m living in an abandoned gold mine, deep down in a far away mountain, and I’m looking at your discussion from an underground perspective.

I studied the discussions about the FED, gold and oil and wanted to thank THE RED BARON for having compiled the contributions in An Enigma Wrapped in an Anomaly and The Grand LBMA Expose.

What I think is missing is the central function of how the creation of money, the creation of US-dollars, is organized. I can’t unwrap the whole enigma, but I can help you to come a few steps closer to understand some of the anomalies about the US-dollar, gold, and oil a bit better. There are misunderstandings about the FED in the above mentioned discussion, which lead to wrong conclusions.

Please don’t think I’m just kidding you when I start out with some magic. Yes, there is something magic about creating something ( i.e., anything ) out of nothing. This is even more magic if the created something out of nothing is money, and it becomes completely exciting when we realize that this feudal monopoly right, to create money out of thin air is put into the hands of a few private, international bankers.

The FED system is based on a law, the first Federal Reserve Act, which was passed by Congress one day before Christmas in the year 1913, on the 23rd of December, literally in a mafia-like night-and-fog- action.

First the historical facts:
Only a selected minimum of Congress members where called back from Christmas vacation to make sure this law got passed. With this law, the US Congress delegated the feudal monopoly right to create US-dollars into the hands of private, international bankers.
What means that?
It means that a handful of private international bankers have since the right to create US dollars out of thin air, out of nothing. For this created money they receive the payment of interest in earned, honest money and they get back the premium in honest money.
It is my opinion that with this law, the US turned into an Oligarchy. The politicians became the pets of the Oligarchy and not the other way round ( as it is sometimes perceived ) . I have not the slightest illusion about the US of America being a democracy. Maybe it is the breakdown of this illusion which makes this issue so emotionally hard to accept for honest Americans like MOZEL.

Who are these private international bankers?
Take a look at who designed this law:
1. The father-in-law of John D. Rockefeller, Nelson W. Aldrich, Republican whip in the Senate, Chairman of the National Monetary Commission, and business associate of J.P. Morgan.
2. Frank A. Vanderlip, representing William Rockefeller and the international investment banking house Kuhn, Loeb & Company.
3. Henry P. Davison, senior partner of the J.P. Morgan Company.
4. Charles D. Norton, president of J.P. Morgan's First National Bank of New York.
5. Benjamin Strong, head of J. P. Morgan's Bankers Trust Company.
6. Pau M. Warburg, partner in Kuhn, Loeb & Company, a representative of the Rothschild banking dynasty in England and France, and brother of Max Warburg who was head of the Warburg banking consortium in Germany and the Netherlands. Paul Warburg was the mastermind of the whole law design and its implementation.

The FED system, which is based on this law, has been more aggressively adjusted to the interests of the international bankers in the course of time, especially, when the dollar became completely detached from the gold standard and when the IMF was added to ensure worldwide expansion of the dollar as a reserve currency.

The FED system has three layers: the FED, publicly represented by AG who acts on the orders of the bankers and not in any variation of public interest; the twelve Federal Reserve Banks, of which the New York FRB is by far the most powerful; and the member banks of the FRBs, which are commercial banks and the owners of the FRBs. All these three layers play together in the process of money creation out of thin air.

Why is it so important to take into account who creates the money?
First it is important to know that the US dollars are not created by the government or a government agency, which is in almost all these discussions the underlying assumption. This assumption is wrong.
US dollars are created out of thin air by private bankers and these private bankers have therefore the interest to create as much as possible of this stuff because it increases their power and influence worldwide. Only the loss of credibility, the loss of confidence in the created currency puts a certain break on this interest, to create as much as possible. In the last phase of the life cycle of fiat money the bankers need not worry anymore about the necessity of these breaks. They can create full speed.
Second, it is important to see that there is a conflict of interest between the government ( s ) which is supposed to act in the interest of the people and the money creators. This conflict becomes obvious in a crisis. Therefore, when the crisis is already foreseeable, the governments have to be weakened. ( They wouldn’t use Clinton’s obvious weakness for womanizing to weaken the institution of the presidency, if the US-dollar wouldn’t approach this crisis. If this coming crisis wouldn’t require a weakened or even destroyed presidency, they would praise Clinton for his charming behavior towards woman. I don’t say Clinton has a charming way with women. I only say that the bankers use their power over the media to create virtual reality to their own liking. ) The bankers will use the unavoidable crash of the international monetary system to their own advantage. To fully optimize the preconditions for their own advantage, the presidency has to be blown. This has nothing to do with the holder of this position.

Now to oil and gold:
It is evident that it is in the interest of the financial oligarchy to pay for oil with thin air. And it is evident that the sellers of oil or of any real and useful goods might not like to be paid with thin air.
From this viewpoint it is understandable what ANOTHER is telling us: he prefers gold. It is much more of a miracle to me, that the Asians are so wild to work their butts off to keep the US inflation rate down in exchange for thin air. What are the Japanese doing with all these treasury bills? Their origin is thin air, plain and simple.

What I'd like to understand more in detail is this: how does the FED created money get into the hands of the bankers?
For example the treasury bills: the treasury department gives the T-bills to the FED and the FED writes an uncovered check ( it’s allowed to do so! ) which the Treasury Department deposits and pays wages and suppliers from this deposit. That's how this money, created by the FED gets into circulation. The FED banks on the other hand try to sell these T-bills to investors and get honest money for this paper. Now, what happens with this honest money which the FED banks have received? How does it get into the bankers hands ?

If it wouldn't get into the bankers hand, Mayer Amschel Rothschild wouldn't make sense when he said: Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws.
The Rothschilds worked very hard to reach their goals. I don't think they did it just to retransfer the big part of the $5.5 trillion federal debt, which they created, back to the people.
Since the 18th century they learned a lot and at least since the 20th century they do care about who writes the laws. And not only the laws. They started to design ideologies, to control the media, to control the parties and politicians, to establish dictatorships and finance wars.
I don't care if someone wants to call these things conspiracy. I call it the worldwide establishment of an oligarchy.

Can someone help me to understand in great detail ( I mean, how do they book it, how do they magically convert liabilities into assets and the other way round, whatsoever? ) how the created money ends up in the banker's hands as tangible assets ?

Alberich the Dwarf.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:52
John B__A (Negative Interpretation By Bridge News) ID#211105:
Copyright © 1998 John B__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gold tests $287 after Belgian sale 03/18/98 07:09 ET

London--Mar 18--Spot gold dropped sharply to test US $287 per ounce this morning after news the Belgian central bank completed the sale of 299
tonnes of gold from official reserves last week. Prices slumped quickly to $289 on the news, and at one stage were bid down to $286.45--the lowest level since Jan 20--before recovering to around $287.95-288.45.

Analysts noted there had been explicit clues an official sector gold
sale would be announced, which partially reduced the shock of today's
statement. A rise in 1-month gold lease rates to 3.5% in March indicated
large-scale borrowing which market sources speculated was the result of
covering by bullion houses involved in a central bank sale.

The big lease rate move we had strongly suggested central bank activity, said Kamal Naqvi, analyst at Macquarie Equities. He said an
announcement was inevitable at some stage and the market had been simply
looking to confirm who and how much. But Naqvi cautioned the price reaction would be severe. He expected a drop to $285-286 and did not rule out a breach of that support. It's strong and negative as far as the gold price is concerned. We will see that as the day continues and renewed pressure when New York opens, Naqvi said.

Most negative was Belgium's statement the sale was linked to integration into the European System of Central Banks. That augured for a bout of central bank selling prior to the formation of the European Central Bank, one source suggested. Today's news marks the fifth time Belgium has made a gold-sale announcement, 3 of which have been made in the month of March. The bank has now announced sales totalling 1,231 tonnes of gold since 1989. The sale is the second announced so far this year. In February, the Czech central bank announced a 25-tonne sale took place during 1997.

Following is a list of past European central bank sale announcements:

--Feb 25--Czech central bank announces 25-tonnes gold sold in 1997
--Dec 3--Argentina's Central Bank announces 4 million ounce gold sale
--Jly 4--Reserve Bank of Australia announces 167-tonne gold sale
--March--Belgian central bank announces 203-tonne gold sale
--January, 1997--Dutch central bank announces 300-tonne gold sale
--January, 1993--Dutch central bank announces 400-tonne gold sale
--January, 1993--Belgian central bank announced 400-tonne gold sale
--June, 1992--Belgian central bank announced 202-tonne gold sale
--March, 1989--Belgian central bank announced 127-tonne gold sale

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:52
Silverbaron (JTF) ID#289357:
Copyright © 1998 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

I agree - it is most interesting that these forecasts and price movements are apparently non-random, and thus ( perhaps ) predictable if one knows the correct variables.

It is more strange that Nolan ( apparently, from other's input ) does have a better track record on other markets. Can it be that her trend forecast correlations are turned against the gold market by the manipulators? As was stated yesterday, systems forced far away from dynamic equilibrium sooner or later react to correct........lets go gold!

BTW - silver performing nicely today......maybe running the fund stops didn't work?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:49
Frustrated (@vronsky) ID#338228:
On the add comment screen there is a place off to the far right where you can click No one for copyright.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:47
Prometheus (@Are these numbers right?) ID#210235:
I'm seeing a nice move in platinum here, and the rest looking good too. Even gold caught and held above it's previous lows. Maybe Farfel can come back soon. Good day to buy, themissinglink. And your website is wonderful, too.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:45
The Hermit (@ POLARBEAR & John Disney) ID#369247:
Thank you for the article on The Randgold & Exploration Portfolio posted at the Golden-Eagle site. It is most informative and interesting. I do appreciate it gentlemen!


The Hermit

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:42
RayZer (Calculators please) ID#408147:
So, does this mean that some central banks may actually have to buy
gold to attain the 33% gold reserve requirements and/or that those
holding 33%+ must reduce to that level by 200x? This is amazing news!

;Verplaetse said that in the third stage of European Monetary Union
; ( EMU ) one third of the planned European Central Bank's external
;reserves will be held in gold, a higher percentage than many gold
;traders were anticipating.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:41
vronsky (NO COPYRIGHT INTENDED NOR IMPLIED) ID#426220:

ALL: pls be advised I DID NOT PUT A COPYRIGHT ON MY LAST STATEMENT. It seems there is the intention that anything said here is COPYRIGHTED. Pls feel free to use my comments anywhere.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:39
lakefoil () ID#318183:
THanks Beamer and ORIS - gambling is better when it is in front of people!! lol - ( you want gambling :: look at calvf - hvgo and of course clpzf!! lol )

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:37
JTF (Nonrandom correlations between Astronomical events and the market.) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
SilverBaron: I to am intrigued by this correlation, not just because of my investing interests, but because of the fundmental questions involved. I suspect that there are some very fundamental physical phenomena not yet understood that affect human behavior, as well as natural events on the earth. Why, for example does the fibonacci series, and the number 1.618 some up so frequently with the behavior of the markets, as well as with numerous types of natural phenomena? Why are the orbital periods of the planets 'quantized'?

This is not logical, as Spock might say. One is forced to conclude that much of human behavior is modulated by natural events, and not entirely 'free will'. And -- some individuals are more affected than others. Our serial world-wide financial crises, linked with the ElNino are good examples of events beyond our control. Or the idea that 'fiat' currencies can exist without backing by gold. The final outcome is predictable, and apparently not preventable. I do believe that we would exercise more 'free will' if we wanted to - but it is hard for many humans to swim against the tide.

One concept does make sense. If so much of nature is 'quantized' at some basic level following the sequence of the fibonacci series, then it follows that human behavior must be affected by that phenomena, whatever it is. I suspect that we will find out that the concepts of gravity, and electromagnetic phenomena are much richer than our current understanding.

For example, perhaps the electrostatic potential of the earth -- driven by the solar wind -- affects our behavior -- and perhaps the planets modulate this process as they pass through the solar wind. The motions of the planets may be synchronized by this phenomenon as well -- so all events in the solar system are linked together.

I apologize for this off-topic discussion -- but I think these concepts are fundamental to the markets, and to understanding the mysteries of WDGann's investment technique. If we could only understand this better.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:37
vronsky (A PROBLEM OF IGNORANCE & MARKETING) ID#426220:
Copyright © 1998 vronsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Quixotic 1 ( DROOY-RANGY, half full or half empty )
John Disney and Polarbear

Your questions to John & Polarbear bring a good-natured smile to my face. While your quiries are very good, they demand that John & Polarbear take at least a three month sabbatical from their daily professions in order to give justice to your insightful and constructive questions. Following are some of the cardinal reasons for this, and why there is such an inequitable and disproportional disparity of market values imparted to the South African gold mining stocks vis-à-vis their North-American counter-parts.

Ignorance & Marketing -

Firstly, the global ignorance of the international investment world regarding gold investments is encyclopedic and pervasive! In-depth studies demonstrate there is presently only 1 per 1000 investors who has just barely enough information about the gold industry to have a minuscule investment in some precious metals mining company.
Now I am talking about North-American precious metals mining companies. Although I have never seen any reports thereon, I feel certain that the monumental dearth of information about the South African mining firms would suggest that perhaps only 1 per 50,000 investors worldwide has enough data to justify an investment in that area. This gross lack of dissemination of information is due CHIEFLY to MARKETING… or more precisely, the lack thereof.

Whereas the North-American gold mining industry is heavily marketed, I do NOT believe the South African industry spends a DIME on advertising and/or marketing. Here's a prime example of what I am talking about.

The Chamber of Mines of South was founded by and for the benefit of the Gold Mines of that country - as the name implies. It has members other than gold mines, but the gold industry dominates. Now here is the largest gold producing country in the world with its own association, which should be promoting its image and progress. HOWEVER, I was recently informed by a spokesman of that august body that it has NO BUDGET FOR ADVERTISING. It seems that one is supposed to learn about the South African gold mining industry through a process of spatial osmosis. It would be interesting to know what percent of Barrick Gold's annual revenues are spent on MARKETING & PROMOTING ABX - in addition to the monies spent in the activities of their Investor Relations Departments.

To any reasonably OBJECTIVE ANALYST, the fundamentals overwhelmingly favor South African gold mines over North-American and/or Australian counter-parts. And whereas an international investor might be buried by his broker in hard-copy on North-American and Australian gold mining companies, the same hapless broker is indeed very hard pressed to even produce the symbol of any South African gold producer. CONSEQUENTLY, the North-American and Australian stocks have always boasted much higher Price/Earnings multiples than those displayed on Johannesburg Stock Exchange -- or for that matter the PER of South African ADRs listed in New York.

If history is prologue, those who make the effort to be informed of the relative investment statistics of South African gold stocks vis-à-vis their well-marketed and well-publicized competitors across the 'Big-Pond, will indeed be the MOST REWARDED. Since the mid-1960s every single gold bull market has witnessed South African gold stocks SOAR 300-400%, while their North-American and Australian counter-parts climbed a 'paltry 90-110%.

As an INTERESTING aside, South African gold stocks HAVE ALWAYS ENJOYED MUCH HIGHER DIVIDEND YIELDS than their louder-mouth brethren.

Perhaps it is a smug attitude - or pretentious demeanor on the part of the South African gold producers - which prevents them from tooting their own horns. However, I dare get into their faces by saying, if you don't get your act together, and start marketing your companies, then JUST MAYBE, SOMEONE ELSE WILL! Specifically, here is what I mean.

RANDGOLD has a PICAYUNE market capitalization of $51 million versus its Current Asset Value of $200 million - that's buying a dollar bill for 25 cents! Please recognize there are a lot of HUNGRY & AGGRESSIVE Mr. Munks and Barrick Golds in the US and Canada - who may at this very moment be drooling over the likes of RANDGOLD, DEEP DURBAN & HARMONY GOLD MINES. In fact an American gold company with a much higher PER multiple would conceivably take-over a RANDGOLD in a stock-swap, resulting in a ZERO-COST BASIS for the South African acquisition... SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.

An Open Message to South African Gold Producers:

IF YOU REFUSE TO TOOT YOUR OWN HORN, THEN HIRE SOMEONE FROM MADISON AVENUE ( NEW YORK CITY ) TO DO IT FOR YOU. Incidentally, it may save your job!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:35
lakefoil (RYO ) ID#318183:
Bentley ( BNT ) sold at 3 5/16 and now will RYO open? or do I have to go find out what Vodka tastes like with PICKLE?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:35
John B__A (Belgium Predicts 1/3 gold reserves for ECB!) ID#211105:
Copyright © 1998 John B__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Extract from Reuters update this morning

Wednesday March 18, 11:00 am Eastern Time

Belgium's central bank said Wednesday it had sold a further 299 tonnes of gold from its reserves in the past few months through five other central banks.

Gold opened lower on the Belgian sales news, but the possibility that other central banks may have absorbed the extra supply has allowed gold to recover from its lows,'' said Carlos Perez-Santalla, a COMEX floor trader.

The Belgian central bank said Wednesday it had sold 299 tonnes of gold over the past few months, through five other central banks, bringing its gold reserves down in line with the likely requirements of the future European Central Bank. Central Bank Governor Alfons Verplaetse said the operation, revealed for the first time in the bank's weekly statement, had started in 1997 and was now concluded.

Verplaetse said the sale had been made ``at'' five other unnamed central banks, and bank spokesman later said the sale had been made ``to'' other central banks but he admitted ``we didn't say what the central banks did with the gold.'' Wednesday's sale cuts the proportion of gold in Belgium's reserves to around 16 percent of total reserves, excluding reserves held in the form of Special Drawing Rights.

Verplaetse said that in the third stage of European Monetary Union ( EMU ) one third of the planned European Central Bank's external reserves will be held in gold, a higher percentage than many gold traders were nticipating.



Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:30
Aura (@silverbaron, do you have a URL for Nolan?) ID#25784:
Thanxx.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:23
John B__A (Interesting update by Michael Kosares) ID#211105:
http://www.usagold.com/Daily%20Quotes

Mr. Kosares has a bullish view on the Belgium sale. If I understand what he is saying, the Belgium sale was channeled through five CBs in the past few months. Presumably otherwise these 5 CBs would have been buying their gold on the open market.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:21
oris (PH in LA) ID#238422:
Walk low - I can not imagine anything close to
it in Russian language. Style of ANOTHER's English
absolutely denies ANOTHER's first language being
Russian.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:19
RETIRED SOLDIER (@ All) ID#347235:
I see the POG down this morning but am still confident it will rise again soon with a vengence, now is the time to buy. Any disagreements out there? If so explain why to this pore boy before he loses all his retired pay he is spending like no tommorow/Maybe thats the best way to think?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:15
Pete (Allen - I forgive you in spades.) ID#222231:
To err is human. To fathom like Allen is devine!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:15
oris (Lakefoil) ID#238422:
You're not nuts. You are gambler...and I'm too...

Life without excitment is like vodka without pickle.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:11
Beamer (lakefoil - RYO) ID#26144:
There was am article in STockwatch this morning in which Margaret
Witte reassured shareholders - she says they are meeting their
payroll ( they have $2.5 mil in the treasury ) and that they need
$25 mil. to cover overruns. They are talking to groups regarding a refinancing of existing debt. Don't worry - the BC Govt. already
has $150+ mil invested ( gifted to ) this project. If they were willing
to bale out Skeena Cellulose to the tune of $350 ++million, they'll
probably jump in to save RYO too - if it comes to that........

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:11
John B__A (Was the Belgium gold sold or traded or what?) ID#211105:
Copyright © 1998 John B__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I'm confused by the reuters following Reuters news story:

Further falls came mid-morning in Europe when the Belgian Central Bank announced sales of 299 tonnes last week, cutting its gold reserves to 61 billion Belgian francs ( $1.6 billion ) from 164 billion. The weekly situation...was influenced by an arbitrage operation of gold against foreign currencies,'' the bank said in its weekly statement.

If the gold was sold on the open market, this would indicate that the market stood up well. If they simply traded the gold to another CB, then I guess we're still faced with a weak gold market in which physical uptake of gold is not keeping pace with supply. Does anyone have an accurate interpretation of this Belgium sale? thanks,

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:07
PH in LA (Allen's insight...Brilliant!) ID#225408:
Copyright © 1998 PH in LA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Allen ( USA ) :

Thanks for your BRILLIANT analysis of ANOTHER's prose! I also have been troubled by A's prediction and the way it has been interpreted by pundits here. It just didn't seem like something ANOTHER would have done, ie. come out with a definate prediction when all along he has councilled us not to think like traders rather to think like non-westerners whose gold lies very quiet.

I also have difficulty with the theory that ANOTHER is that Saudi prince. As in: A super-wealthy billionaire with palaces all over the world would want to spend his limited time posting here? Whoever he is, he is very conversant with the internet including repetition of the Kitco rallying cry Go Gold! He obviously spends some time reading our posts here, and thinking about what he wants to say to us. I don't, however, embrace Preacher's theory that HE is a group of writers based somehow over at Gold-*agle inventing the whole scam. Preacher bases this theory on the evidence of several writing styles in ANOTHER's posts. I explain this ( to myself ) by postulating a proof-reader or translater.

That ANOTHER speaks ( and/or thinks ) in another language is undeniable. There is just too must strangeness in some of his phrases. That they will be made to walk low by the loss of their wealth is just one example. What English speaker would conceive that anyone without wealth walks low? This comes from another language! No question about it. And it would be very hard to invent something like this. The multi-linguals amongst us ought to be able to shed light on this by finding it in their another languages. I can attest that no such expression is used in Spanish. Oris speaks Russian. Does this expression exist in Russian?

Another pecularity in ANOTHER's prose is his use of the apostrophy. His punctuation looks more like í except the accent goes the opposite way. Is there a language that uses that convention? If ANOTHER ( and/or his translater/proofreader ) does come from the middle east and speaks a Bedoin language he/they would also likely speak French as another second language. Do French speakers among us recognize any idioms?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:07
Prometheus (@John Disney) ID#210235:
Sorry, but you've been cast as Pozzo.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 12:00
John B__A (Is this a plausible scenario? ) ID#211105:
Copyright © 1998 John B__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I can believe that the U.S., Germany, France, Switzerland and Italy either cannot or will not begin disposition of their gold for some time into the future. I believe they will need to do all they can in the next year or two to build and preserve faith in the EURO. Selling gold now would be counter to that strategy. Those countries account for the bulk pf CB holdings ( 18,300 tons vs a total of 16,000 for the rest of the world combined ) . The remaining weakest sisters with large gold holdings are Netherlands ( 781 tons ) and Portugal ( 624 tons ) . Australia, Belgium. Argentina and Czech have completed their damaging sales. It seems we are getting close to getting the big CB sale damage behind us?

Next - even if sales continue, it seems that they will be done in this range of $280-$300. If we can make an assumption that gold has stabilized in a range of 280-300, is it true that the strongest gold stocks ( ABX, HM, NGC ) can still make decent earnings at this level? If they can, then their strong financial position should enable them to gain position in the gold industry at the expense of weaker mining companies that will soon begin to disappear from the scene at these low prices. I'm looking for a win-win situation that says the quality gold stocks are the ones to hold at this time until gold breaks out. Any comments are always appreciated.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:58
TYoung (Allen(USA)) ID#317193:
Regarding your query on Belgium-Do not try to make sense out of nonsense. Who knows if this was realy a sale? Anybody got current lease rates on gold How can gold only be down $1.30+/- on this type of news? Tom

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:56
John Disney__A (RYO and Drooy) ID#24135:
for Lakefoil

It may FEEL the same .. but it isn't
the same.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:55
MoReGoLd (@ALLEN) ID#348286:
My take on this is that ANY news on Gold, whether positive or negative, is taken by the market players as another opportunity to sell Gold.
For instance take the Asian crisis, did that help Gold? It hammered Gold.
We are just in an incredible bear market in Gold, and an inveresly bullish market in stocks.
I have been a Bug for a long time, but I can't recall such a bearish time for Gold, ever.
The IMF, EMU, CB's have not helped matters either.
Sorry for the bearishness but that the way it is at the moment.........

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:54
Donald__A (Rumor of Rubin resignation circulating again. Has been denied again) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/u_s_offici_3.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:53
John Disney__A (funny market) ID#24135:
to all
I love this market.. it teaches humility.
Just when everybody suddenly gives up on
something - ( see Palladium ) - and decides
its obsolete and finished for good . it goes
up 15 bucks.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:52
lakefoil (cash and stock!!) ID#318183:
Hi Oris - I had an order to sell RYO at 1 1/16 but removed it and I am selling BNT to raise cash to buy more RYO - I must be nuts !! but I bought DROOY at 1 9/16 and sold at 3 5/8 - and this feels the exact same!!!!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:47
Allen(USA) (?) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I'm still wondering why the Belgium sale ( swap ) with 5 other CB's is considered BEARISH news for this market. It still looks to be that they got over spot price for their gold. The gold never hit the street. It was immediately absorbed by other CB's. Who were they? Obviously those who felt they needed gold rather than US$'s, which were the obvious 'foreign reserves'. Who could that be? And when the Belgians wanted to pay off some debts they used gold not Francs, not Franc denominated bonds. Doesn't this tell us that gold is better 'money' than Francs?

Can someone please straighten me out on this? D.A., why would this news be bearish for gold other than people have interpreted this type of news like this in the past? If gold never hits the market then it should have no effect on the market?

Maybe this has to do with perceptions of value. If a country was willing to part with gold at a particular price then possibly this would give the perception that this price was a top and lower prices were expected?


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:39
RETIRED SOLDIER (@ Reify,Barak et al) ID#347235:
Got your lon e-mail last night and short one this morning as soon as I get home from work will answer in detail. I agree with you NOW is the time to buy, wish I had waited too. So far I am down @US 2000 since I started buying, but am going to the bank today and getting more to spend!!! I was too tired last night to stay up and write after being up all night and having to work. Later NU?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:38
Straddler (FundaMETAList) ID#280215:
You are correct. It was my mistake in how I posted the comment. I guess I meant to say that the wave A of the ABC ended in March 1995, but it began in March 1993.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:38
John B__A (JTF - Delphi) ID#211105:
Copyright © 1998 John B__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
JTF - I'm not sure what you mean regarding the Belgian sale.a I would prefer to think that this 299 tons were dumped recently on the market. This would explain why gold was not able to break above $300. Until this morning I was feeling very bearish, but feel now that is gold could absorb 299 tons and still hold at the $290 level, that indicates the physical uptake on gold is still very positive. what do you think?

Delphi - My records show that Netherlands now has 781 tons of gold after their sale in 1996 of 300 tons.

All - If gold can hold now, Barrick looks like a good buy at 19 1/4. It is the quality gold equity and if there is hope for gold, Barrick will be the first to move up. I finally committed and bought my first ABX this morning, after overcoming a strong strong desire to dump all my gold and silver holdings.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:37
John Disney__A (who needs reserves?) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
For JTF .
Thanks for commenting. I'm completely unclear on what
the Europeans will do after euro. Ive heard that the
Germans and French will NEVER give up their gold .. so
what happens .. do some countries keep reserves
separately from what the european central bank keeps. How
about individual countries need for their OWN reserves
in the event of a crisis For example, had say South
Korea been using the euro instead of the won, what
difference would it have made if they had an economic
collapse and could not pay back their loans .. regardless
of how the loans were denominated?
Reserves aren't there just to protect currency - or
are they
A lot of the individual countries reserves are in the
back pages of the economist - ex gold always.
some numbers in bills

US 58
switz 38
spain 68
japan 216
Germany 77
France 31
Canada 17
Australia 17
UK 33
Italy 55

Just look, Spain has more reserves than the US. But
the the US doesnt need reserves - it just prints the
crapola. Look at these numbers again .. I assume most
of these reserves are $. With a new currency, and pooled
resources why does europe need reserves like this ..
I mean Switzerland has more than half what the US has.
I wonder if anyone has thought this through. Knowing
a little about how politicians and eurocrats work, I
believe it is altogether likely that no one has.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:37
Allen(USA) (I am an idiot. Ravenfire and Pete are correct.) ID#246224:
I saw a figure at the bottom of Jin's post and thought I remembered the number. Didn't check it out. Remembered wrong. Please forgive me on this.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:33
Drdirt (IPJ) ID#271349:
Greetings. IPJ ( International Pursuit ) is a company I have been following. Its stock has been relatively insensitive to gold price fluctuations, compared to some of the seniors like FCX, NEM until this latest drop in POG. Could the assembled sages here on Kitco give me their perspective on this company? It seems to have good prospects, just wanted some other opinions.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:33
Silverbaron (JTF) ID#289357:
Copyright © 1998 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Prechter's newsletter typically deals only with Elliott Wave pattern analysis, although he does infrequently inject some other info such as comittments of traders, etc. In the latest issue ( in which he calls the silver bull over ) , he has added no such comments.

I might add that reading and following of Prechter's book ( which I thought was very well done and convincing ) and his newsletter has cost his readers many lost opportunities to make money in the last few years, yours truly including.

On the subject of Nolan's work on gold trend forecasting - I'm interested ( still ) because the trend and price patterns do have some similarities, even though I think it is useless for predicting pricing patterns in gold. The fact that there is some non-random degree of correlation between the peaks and valleys between the forecast and price patterns, indicates to me that there is something there, ( but WHAT )

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:32
oris (lakefoil/RYO) ID#238422:
Unfortunately, it's very bad at this particular time.
Perfect time to buy or to sell, depends upon the concept
of investing you are using. Or do nothing and hold, if
you got RYO and got strong stomach. Nobody can tell, except
time, but today it's very bad...


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:25
Straddler (Silverbaron) ID#280215:
Copyright © 1998 Straddler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I agree with you about Prechter. I think he started talking depression and crashes etc when the Dow rallyed to 3800. The thing is, when we do eventually get a bear market downturn in the future, he and his die hard followers will say I told you so. They will spew the standard line that he got the analysis correct, but the timing was off and the timing is the hardest to predict. Meanwhile all of his DIE HARD followers have been in Treasury Bills for the last 10 years.

I still find it interesting though to know his and other EWave perspectives as part of my overall technical analysis of a market. I approach Ewave as simply another indicator like MACD or Stochastics. If all/most indicators are pointing in a particular direction, it usually confirms a move/future possible move more accurately.

Even with his stock market blunders, it's hard to criticize his gold call so far from $900+ to now. Oh well, 1 out of 10 aint bad!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:24
Spud Master (@JTF) ID#273112:
Copyright © 1998 Spud Master/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Why should we even worry about the Euro being backed, however slightly, by gold?

The bloody US Dollar isn't backed by anything except the virtual slavery of those who owe it. Why should the Euro be any different?

The US Dollar, the European Euro and the as yet unannounced Asian megacurrency will all be debt-slavery-based fiat currencies.

Fascinating to watch human nature at work: we willingly enslave ourselves for pieces of paper not worth anything at all. Old Rothchild was quite correct - who cares about The Law - control the money and you are the real law.

Toil away, little citizen-slaves. How those who control this paper game must laugh & laugh.

As for the Belgium gold sale - feh - CBs just trading it back & forth, back & forth and flatulently declaiming to the credulous public selling gold! it's worthless! selling gold!

These would-be slave lords of us aren't all that smart - their actions are very transparent.

Spud

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:15
fundaMETAList (Straddler: Yauger on Silver) ID#341214:
Straddler: You mentioned a huge ABC wave that started in Mar 95. Could that actually be Mar 93? I was looking at a long term silver weekly chart over the weekend and I noticed that the recent run up ended pretty close to a .618 correction of the down wave that ran from about 4/87 to 3/93. We could indeed be heading for 4.00 ( or lower ) silver but I'm having a hard time convincing myself of that.


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:14
JTF (Prechter's Silver bear? Rebecca Nolan on the DOW.) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
SilverBaron: Did Prechter explain why he is bearish on silver and bullish on gold? We Kitcoites know silver supplies are dwinding ( production shortfall among other things ) , and the Warren Buffett is holding large quantities of silver. Perhaps Mr Prechter is looking only at the technicals -- not a good idea with silver, I think.

I am disappointed to hear that Rebecca Nolan was wrong about some of her predictions, and failed to admit them. Astroinvesting is pretty good with turning points, but the investor must guess the direction of the new trend and which market. And -- I suspect also the magnitude of the change.

I think Allen may be on to something with ANOTHER's predictions, and the actual price of gold. What if the Belgian's sold their gold at $300 plus per ounce to other central banks, but released news implying otherwise to depress the gold market. If this is true, I don't think this charade can go on much longer. By the way, if the Belgians sold their gold to other european CB's, who sold all that gold to China, and why is China also paying a premium over the official 'spot' price?

All: What if the 'black market' gold price on the LBMA has already gone up? That would be good news indeed!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 11:09
Frustrated (Royal Oak in Default of Senior Secured Debentures) ID#298259:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980317/royal_oak__1.html also... conference call http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980317/royal_oak_1.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:59
Silverbaron (Straddler) ID#289357:

I might add that Prechter's analysis of the overall stock market + $2.00 will get you a cup of coffee almost anywhere...He has the most dreadful of track records...I'm a subscriber to EWT, but his call on silver may push me off his list.....we shall see.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:58
Midwesterner (chas re: 1020 - Allegheny Mining Co.) ID#349235:
chas, call Richard Martens at 800 266-4484 for additional information you referred to. He is the I.R. person for Allegheny Mining Co. I talked with him about 6 months ago and he seemed exceptionally knowledgable.

I'll send you an e-mail in a little bit.

Thanks

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:53
NJ (CC and IDT) ID#20748:
CC : Agreed. One has to remember that most E-wavers are strongly influenced by Prechter.

IDT : I subscribe to the Armstrong Report and occasionally, very occasionally, request a one time gold fax. I hear the next issue of Armstrong Report is going to cover PMs.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:50
themissinglink (Money) ID#373403:
So the Federal Reserve prints $, buys Japanese portfolio of U.S. Bonds, and places them in the Social Security Trust Fund.

The party lives on.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:49
lakefoil (Royal Oak) ID#318183:
Any one know how bad it is ?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:47
Delphi (Some figures about Dutch CB gold) ID#258129:
In 1997 Dutch CB sold 300 ton of gold, and that was 20% of whole reserve. That means that 1200 remains. Whole population of Netherlands is about 15 million. That gives us about 80 gram per citizen. Much higher, than the same figure for USA. They may probably sell too…

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:45
chas (Midwesterner re Falconbridge) ID#342282:
The URL is Falconbridge.com

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:45
Straddler (Yauger Analysis) ID#280215:
Copyright © 1998 Straddler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
FYI and FWIW:

I've actaully Emailed Ivan Yauger before to clarify some of his Elliott Wave analysis. He's pretty good at returning Emails. His address is on his site. For those who don't know, he espouses exactly to the Robert Prechter scenario/count as follows ( and mind you, this is his and Prechter's analysis not mine ) :

Yauger on GOLD: In January, Gold started a wave B upward.

If this is true, then as he says, the recent few weeks are a corretion and the 280-285 should hold and then start upward to the 320-360 range ( something familiar about that range, don't you think. I think ANOTHER person might have mentioned that ) . If wave B has not started yet, then we will get a new leg down to new lows ( 250 ish ) and then start wave B up. His current preferred call is that he thinks that wave B has already started and that this latest correction should hold without new lows. Long term though, this still follows that after 360 ish, we will hit new lows in the 100s for the final low. In the XAU, his analysis is that we rally to 90+ or so and then begin a huge wave 3 downward as per his/Prechters scenario of new lows long term.

Yauger on SILVER: The run up to 7.50 was the final wave of a huge ABC that began in March of 1995, and that Silver has now started a new Bear market that will reach new lows.

I never really asked him much about silver, but he relayed this to me, as well as in one of his recent commentaries.

If his preferred call on gold is accurate and this is a correction to 280 and not a new leg down, the correction should end in a few days. This also corresponds strangely to the call of ANOTHER person who posts on this forum. Wouldn't it be funny that Gold should then rally to 320 and get ANOTHER off the hook!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:30
JTF (Belgian CB Gold Sales) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: Am I correct that these were gold loans converted into gold sales? If so, this gold was sold a long time ago, presumably. Hence the bearish effect of these sales will be minimal.

Comments on the EURO: I think John Disney stated correctly that the europeans may not need as much gold after EURO than before all of the gold sales, because much of the inter-country currency risk will eventually be reduced.

I think the key question is not how much gold the EURO needs to stabiliize currency fluctuations, but whether the EURO gold reserves are sufficient to compete with the US dollar.

John Disney: Do you know how many US dollars or other US treasuries the europeans have? This I think will be highly significant, since the europeans will probably have reduced US dollar reserve requirements after the EURO is launched. If I was a European banker, I would eventually be selling US dollars, and buying whatever is needed for the EURO reserves, before 'go live' Jan 1, 1999.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:27
chas (Carl re URL's) ID#342282:
Let me know what you need and I'll do what I can

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:24
IDT (PEI and other stuff) ID#375252:
-
NJ: I subscribe to PEI Capital Market Review and the last pub that I got has Armstrong saying that gold must hold at 279.20 on a monthly and quarterly basis or else the next stop down is 220-230 area. Do you subscribe to the weekly or daily commentary such that you have more updated info? If so, what is his outlook further up the road. In the last issue of Capital Market Review Armstrong was looking for a low in May followed by a retest perhaps to new lows in the June/July time frame.

DA - where do find these interesting tidbits, for example Japan's monetary data. Do you get them on the net or through some of the more expensive news services that brokerage type guys such as yourself subcribe to.

Allen: I'm confused. Who would pay the Belgians so much more than spot price. Are the news numbers inaccurate or am I missing something here.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:24
IDT (PEI and other stuff) ID#375252:
-
NJ: I subscribe to PEI Capital Market Review and the last pub that I got has Armstrong saying that gold must hold at 279.20 on a monthly and quarterly basis or else the next stop down is 220-230 area. Do you subscribe to the weekly or daily commentary such that you have more updated info? If so, what is his outlook further up the road. In the last issue of Capital Market Review Armstrong was looking for a low in May followed by a retest perhaps to new lows in the June/July time frame.

DA - where do find these interesting tidbits, for example Japan's monetary data. Do you get them on the net or through some of the more expensive news services that brokerage type guys such as yourself subcribe to.

Allen: I'm confused. Who would pay the Belgians so much more than spot price. Are the news numbers inaccurate or am I missing something here.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:22
NJ (Second try) ID#20748:
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/zdisplay.phtml?cbase=GD

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:20
chas (Midwesterner- Aym) ID#342282:
Copyright © 1998 chas/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I have got what I can find as 3/3/98. So far the defined tonnage is small, but there does seem to be a greater potential. I can't find a map, and I need to talk to co., but no email and no tollfree. This could be an extensive call. Maybe I can work a call-back by them. The grade looks ok. A lot of times in massive s deposits the PM's are very lo ( due to nature of the occurence ) . AYM seems to have ok PM grade if tonnage builds. It looks like they are going about it right. Last trade 3/12 @72 cents. For comparison, you might check Falconbridge at Kidd Creek. That's NE of AYM across Ont. If I can find url for them I'll let you know. To me this could be a good gamble. Chart shows lite action on way up. I know this is short, but we should email. Any more questions let me know. EMAIL is cdevoto@conninc.com

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:19
NJ (Good site) ID#20748:
for charts. Scroll down to additional analaysis.

http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/menu.phtml

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:15
Pete (Allen, Skylark, CORRECTION!) ID#222231:
JUST GOT LATEST CONVERSION FOR 110 BIL BF TO $US = $2.935 BIL $US/299 TONNES/32,154OZ/TONNE = $305/oz. DOES ANYONE KNOW WHAT CONVERSION WAS WHEN SALE TOOK PLACE? STILL SOUNDS GOOD TO ME. ( AT LEAST BETTER THAN CURRENT QUOTE FOR GOLD. )

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:08
ravenfire (re: Belgian gold sale -- this is meant to be *bearish*?) ID#333126:
Copyright © 1998 ravenfire/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
according to http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/table_belg_2.html

the Belgians sold their gold in the week to March 16th. Even using the current exchange rate ( 37.64 ) and getting a sale price of $303.9 ( check my calculations ) , this is still above the price of gold for anytime that week ( it ranged below $300 that entire week, I think ) .

Allow me to repeat the point made that the apparent sale price was above the spot price of gold. What sense does it make that the release of this news sends the price further down? Is there still fear of overhanging central bank gold sales

hmmmmmmmmmm............


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:05
Quixotic 1 (DROOY-RANGY, half full or half empty ) ID#48200:
Copyright © 1998 Quixotic 1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
John Disney and Polarbear;
I have reviewed your article about DROOY and RANGY, posted on this forum and Golden-Eagle. The writing does a wonderful job of compare/contrast with N/A producers, as far as reserves are concerned. Can you prepare an equally objective comparative analysis of historical and projected net earnings? By all standards, ABX is a growth company as well as a Gold mining company. The market seems to impute a social and political risk discount to these stocks. Is the market wrong? Are the shenanigans with the kitties and creative bookkeeping over with? How does the local venue interpret environmental and human rights issues?
In searching for a proxy of the POG, I have accumulated both fo these stocks myself. I hope my concerns are not an indicator that these stocks are really options with an unknown expiration date.

Gold for the good guys…GMJ

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:03
CC (AUger and PEI) ID#334219:
NJ: The difference between PEI and Auger is that PEI is bullish long term while Auger is bearish. BTW, looks like these levels will hold.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 10:03
D.A. (oiling.up.the.presses) ID#7568:
All:

The great sinkhole of the world's economy, Japan, may finally be showing small signs of life. Japanese broad money growth throughout 1997 was a little higher than 3%. In January, the number jumped up to 4.5% on an annualized basis. At the time the monetary authorities in Japan chalked this up to some statistical quirk. February's money supply growth has been released, and it is up at an annualized rate of 4.8%. I have not seen any news relating to the quirkiness of this figure. Tis a very strange deflation.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:57
NJ (PEI and Auger unfazed) ID#20748:
PEI ( Martin Armstrong ) . . As long as 290.8-289.9 support continues to hold, Gold remins in position to recover and move higher.

Yvan Auger . . If we see more weakness this week it must be contained by 71.16 the 62% retracement of last week move. ( Comment on XAU )

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:50
Lock&Lode (@POLARBEAR RE: your 06:15--Clicked on the URL and can't open) ID#266110:
Can you repost? Thanks

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:50
Pete (Allen, Skylark) ID#222231:
Great call Allen. Regardles whether CB's bought or were intermediaries is inmaterial. ( IF ) your calcs are correct ( I believe they are ) , whoever bgt the gold payed $328/oz. SOUNDS GOOD TO ME!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:50
chevy () ID#287358:

I just wanted to say I feel your pain! This is a true test of those who believe. If it is nessary to buy and sell a position 15 times, then I'm not sure I would want to invest in something like that. This market has more fakes then most can figure out. Buy the best, stay off margin and short term options and let the market eventualy adjust to its true value when it's ready. Keep smiling and don't worry be happy you own mans best friend. Buy hate and sell love!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:42
ravenfire (Allen: Belgian CB calculation) ID#333126:
Copyright © 1998 ravenfire/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Allen, I like your way of reasoning, but where did you get that figure for the exchange rate between the BF and the US$? Bloomberg quotes the price at 37.64 a few minutes ago ( http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/wcv1.html )

Is that the exchange rate prevailing when the sale actually took place?

( sorry, but the 10% difference between the rate you quoted and what I see on my screen corresponds to a selling price of US$303 instead of $328 ... though that's still above the spot POG right now, I suppose )

Even so, the news doesn't *seem* all that *BEARish* .... hmmmmmmmmmm ( as tolerant1 would say ) ..........



Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:41
Skylark (Quality of Reserves) ID#93130:
POLARBEAR: At what Gold price were the reserves calculated in Re: Durban Deep, Harmony et al, as reported in your article. And are these Reserves or do the figures include Mineralization?

D.A. Saw your prior post after my most recent was posted.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:37
Skylark (Buyers of Belgium Gold) ID#93130:
I have not seen any posting of the following signficant release:

The Belgian central bank onWednesday confirmed that 299 tonnes of gold from its reserves were bought by five other banks.
The banks were the buyers, a central bank spokesman told
Reuters, clarifying uncertainty over whether the central banks
involved had been buyers or intermediaries in the gold sales.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:34
Fred(@Vienna)__A () ID#185448:
D.A.
Have you got the source? - This could fit into a scenario, I´m about to check out.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:32
MoReGoLd (@Belgium) ID#348129:
Nuke Belgium......

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:31
D.A. (the.spin) ID#7568:
All:

The Belgium gold story now has an interesting twist. When the story first came out it was announced that the sale was made last week. Then upon a further retelling it was announced that the sale was made over the last quarter. Now it comes out that the sale was made to five other central banks!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:31
Aragorn III (Nick@C Your 02:42 post today) ID#212323:
I am still howling with laughter! So true...so true...

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:29
BillD (DAMMMM....ALLEN , You might be on to something or) ID#258427:
AANOTHER...!!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:26
Allen(USA) (Belgium sells gold and someone buys gold at US$328 per troy ounce.) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Let's do the math. 110 Billion Belgium Francs added to foreign reserves from sale of 299 tonnes of gold. 34.85 BF to 1 US$. 110 Bln BF = US$3.156 Bln divided by 299 tonnes = US$10.6 Mln per tonne divided by 32,154 troy ounces per tonne = US$328 per ounce.

Please someone tell me WHY WHY WHY this is bearish for gold?

Doesn't this qualify as a 'signal' that gold should be at US$328 per ounce. This is the low end of ANOTHER's range. ***This is the signal he was talking about***. It was anounced in the second week of ANOTHER's date range.

GO BACK AND READ HIS POST. HE SAID A PURCHASE WOULD BE MADE WHICH WOULD SIGNAL THE RANGE GOLD SHOULD BE AT. HE DID NOT PREDICT GOLD WOULD = $XXX to $YYY. HE SAID A PURCHASE WAS SET TO INDICATE WHAT RANGE GOLD SHOULD BE IN.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:24
HighRise (GOLD) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
C J8
Apr. Gold


289.30 -3.00 -1.0 292.90 287.30 18.0K

CNBC 289.80

HighRise

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:04
G-Nutz (Hey Bart, lemme have access to ur ip logs to the site and ill find out who) ID#42365:
another is real quick, better yet, just post his ip!!!!!come on!!!gimmmie dem numbers!!!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:03
Gebernax (Russian palladium and platinum) ID#419147:
Copyright © 1998 Gebernax/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I have to confess I'm a bit confused when I read comments like Russian inability to deliver metals to the market, as well as I know they have not made a commitment to deliver any. They have delayed signing contracts..hmm...IMF, US government etc. are doing that on daily bases.

The way it looks to me, it is a well organized squeeze, you got to give credit to the guys for geting a good bargin. ( IF Russia is behind the last market fluctuations ) .

As of all this talk of substitutes - don't take it seriously and don't believe everything you are being told. Pt group metals became so important because of their unique properties - they are inert, compact, have a large contact surface and are nontoxic to count the most important ones.

A fuel call, combustion engine catalyst etc. must have it all, and all substitutes lack at least one of them. Besides, all theese substitutes are rather complicated complex compounds, making them is very energy and time consuming process, needs skilled labour, ( that makes THEM expensive too ) and still the results are of questionable quality.

Now, RSA and Russia combined produce close to 100% of platinum, and Russia alone produces about 60% of worlds palladium. Neither country is famous for, shall we say, political stability in the terms of Western hemisphere. If there WERE a possibility to get car industry and several branches of high tech electronics off this hook, it would have been done long ago. Of cource a major technological breakthrough is always possible, but remember - thats exactly what is needed to substitute Pt group metals.

Geb

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:02
themissinglink (Gold Below $290) ID#373403:
YAHOOOOOO!!!! I'm a buyer. As a goldsmith, this is like getting a present. Lower costs will never hurt you. Buy the dips!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:02
Reify (SMILE DERN 'YA) ID#413109:
Copyright © 1998 Reify/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Change o pace for y'all,




Some men in a pickup truck drove into a lumberyard. One of the men
walked in the office and said, We need some four-by-twos.

The clerk said, You mean two-by-fours, don't you?

The man said, I'll go check, and went back to the truck. He
returned in a minute and said, Yeah, I meant two-by-fours.

Alright. How long do you need them?

The customer paused for a minute and said, I'd better go check.
After awhile, the customer returned to the office and said, A long
time. We're gonna build a house.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 09:00
BillD (Carl ...in payment for those url's you MUST) ID#258427:
BUY ONE-ZILLION shares of SSC for me...thanx...

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:59
BillD (Carl...CME Globex...(last of my good ones)) ID#258427:
http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:56
BillD (Carl...DBC Futures (I used when frames not updating)) ID#258427:
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/curcommt.html?SOURCE=core/dbc

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:56
Carl (BillD) ID#341189:
Thanks, and so prompt!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:55
Silverbaron (D.A.) ID#289357:

Your statements agree, I believe, with Elliott's view of 'Wave 2' psychology ( as it relates to the gold market ) . Maximum pessimism, and the questioning by the 'bottom-fishers' about whether they made a good choice.

Thanx for your reinforcments. They are really needed in such times.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:54
BillD (Carl ...Frames Version...url...(not updating)) ID#258427:
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/goldlive/index.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:52
Mike Sheller (note not not) ID#347447:
I meant to say Silver bulls take note. Really.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:50
Carl (*%#&#^@ Been messing with my computer and %&*@ed up again) ID#341189:
Lost all bookmarks among other things. Could someone give me the frames URL. Other URL's for prices would also be appreciated.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:50
Mike Sheller (D.A. & SSC) ID#347447:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I still hold that SSC, bought at the right time, is like owning non-expiring ( hopefully ) silver options. As long as one does not get piggy and expect more than a possible100% or 200% a year rate of return. Your assessment squares with my observation that Jupiter conjuncts SSC's Sun at 22.17 Pisces in Mid May of this year. It retrogrades back to it in September, then rolls across it again early January '99. This will either put SSC out of business, or signal lively action for the company. Silver bulls take not. Buying SSC on weakness now and in April ( perhaps scaling in ) may be the way to go on a conservative, but powerful play in silver. Call me Chicken, but $4 resistance in spring of '99 looks good to ME. Above that and I would crow. The gold bull will not begin until interest rates rise. Period.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:42
BillD (BART ... O'BART...CAN YOU GET) ID#258427:
Your frames version to start updating...thanx....

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:41
chas (Midwesterner) ID#342282:
Some possible new info. I'm working on it

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:37
D.A. (hope.and.despair) ID#7568:
Copyright © 1998 D.A./Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All:

The maximum point of bullishness in a market is reached after the first pullback from what will be the top. It is this point where bears who have capitulated feel comfortable in joining the crowd. The flip side is also true on the downside.

My most memorable observation of this phenomena occured at the top of the 1993 bond market. At the time I was receiving a daily bond market commentary by a 'highly respected' analyst. Needless to say he was bearish all the way to the top. He kept pounding the table about how all the underpinnings of the market rally were on shakey ground, and correctly identified the fundamental reason for commodity price declines, namely USSR destocking. I will never forget the day that he did a complete 180. The market had just come off its highs and pulled back to near the 6.00 level, in action very similar to what we see today. Out of nowhere he abandoned all his fundamental views and became a trader, proclaiming that even though the fundamentals argued differently, fighting the trend ( which had already turned! ) was for fools. It was not long before bonds breached the 8% level.

The reason that I related this story now is that the sentiment towards the gold market appears to be worse now that at anytime since the decline began 2 years ago, and yet we are at the moment at least a few percent above the lows and a fair time away.

The fact that the gold market has held its own over the last few months against 300 tonnes of selling by Belgium and 250 tonnes of selling by Korea, shows the enormous positive imbalance in the market. One day we are going to wake up and find that official sales have ended and the imbalance still exists. At this point the shorts will be very hooked.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:36
Donald__A (South African news) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/markets_em_1.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:34
POLARBEAR (DAMN) ID#183109:
did anyone ever figure out how to get ride of this damn double space virus that bart has? Looks fine on the previous, and doubles when posted.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:33
POLARBEAR (BIG HAPPENINGS ON THE S.A. GOLD SCENE.) ID#183109:
Copyright © 1998 POLARBEAR/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Ersel, Reify, Ray, thank you for your kind words on our article.



Here’s a bunch of CUT and PASTES on the massive shuffling going on in the S.A gold arena. ANYONE CARE TO FLOWCHART THIS :- ) ? WOW…



Father and son Roger and Brett Kebble are both are on the board of Consolidated African Mines ( CAM ) CAM's investment in RANDGOLD has been INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY and last word stood at 29% of RANDGOLD.



Son Brett is on the JCI board.



Kebble senior is chairman of DURBAN DEEP.



As of LAST week week, Roger Kebble, the father of Brett, is the new chairman of RANDGOLD AND EXPLORATION ( RANGY ) .



As of THIS week, “CAM and JCI executive director Brett Kebble will be executive deputy chairman of [the new] JCI Gold”

“… Brett Kebble was named executive deputy chairman of JCI Gold on Tuesday. Kebble was the driving force behind Friday's complex unbundling of the old JCI which will see some assets sold and others folded into the new black-led gold company.



JCI Gold will have a management team with great expertise and a proven record of achievement in its industry. “



They and the board are committed to a gold-focused growth strategy based on the company's strong established production base and considerable blue-sky potential, as well as to the ideals of black empowerment, Kebble said.



…”THE KEBBLES WILL POOL THEIR RESOURCES TO BUILD UP A GOLD-MINING BUSINESS.”



“Kebble junior notes that with CAM owning 29% of Randgold, the two are perfect partners. HE IS PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH RANDGOLD RESOURCES.”

================

Sounds to me like there’s a lot more to come, possibly a takeover of RANDGOLD, or a purchase of RANDGOLD RESOURCES by JCI or CAM?



STAY TUNED ...








Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:25
JIN (GOLD....NEGATIVE.........AREA...) ID#206358:
Copyright © 1998 JIN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Wednesday March 18, 6:44 am Eastern Time

Gold down on Belgian sale rumours, later confirmed

LONDON, March 18 ( Reuters ) - Gold softened through early European trade on Wednesday
after falls in New York on Tuesday as growing rumours of central bank sales knocked $4.00 off
the spot price to take it below $290, dealers said.

Further falls came mid-morning in Europe when the Belgian Central Bank announced sales of 299
tonnes last week, cutting its gold reserves to 61 billion Belgian francs ( $1.6 billion ) from 164
billion.

``The weekly situation...was influenced by an arbitrage operation of gold against foreign
currencies,'' the bank said in its weekly statement.

``The amount of gold involved in this operation was 299 tonnes,'' it added.

The bank said in its annual report in February it held around 476.5 tonnes of gold directly on its
balance sheet plus a further 119 tonnes with the European Monetary Institute.

Governor Alfons Verplaetse, due to give a news conference at 1130 GMT on Wednesday, said
last month the Belgian National Bank would hold ``some'' gold with the future European Central
Bank.

The bank has been a steady seller of gold since the late 1980s when it held 1,329 tonnes,
according to information from the NBB last year.

Gold fixed lower at $289.10 an ounce in the morning, versus Monday afternoon's $293.80, after
softening mainly overnight and again as the official sales news broke before the 1030 GMT fix.

Earlier, dealers had attributed the softer price to talk of central bank sales, a factor which from
late U.S. trade on Monday had dragged spot gold below $294.00 support and out of the
$290-$305 range it had held since January 23, more than seven weeks ago.

Gold reacted slowly to the news itself, dipping from $289.50 bid to $288.75 before settling and
then falling further to $286.50/$287.00.

Another factor affecting Tuesday's market was dollar strength against the yen, seen as affecting
price-sensitive gold demand in Asia.

Still with Japan, the palladium market appeared little affected on news that the country's Murata
Mfg Ltd ( 6981.T ) , the world's largest ceramic capacitor maker, had said it would soon stop using
the metal in its multi-layer ceramic capacitors ( MLCCs ) due to high prices.

Confirming a report in an industry newspaper, a spokesman at Murata said the firm had been
gradually shifting from palladium to other base metals, mainly nickel.

Another spokesman said copper would also be used as a substitute for palladium in smaller
capacitors, and that the company aimed to stop using palladium by early next century.

Murata has a 50 percent share of the global market in MLCCs, used in a wide variety of
electronic and telecommunications equipment such as cellular phones.

Japan's demand for palladium in 1997 amounted to 71.4 tonnes, of which 41.4 was for the
electronics sector, according to estimates by British platinum group metal refiner Johnson Matthey
Plc ( quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: JMAT.L ) .

``It is significant,'' one London dealer said of Murata's announcement.

``Every time the price rallies you tend to get these people saying 'I am going to substitute' but this
is more important than the normal substitution stories,'' he added.

Prices for both palladium and to a lesser extent platinum have been buoyed by Russia's failure
once again to export metal during the early months of the year, something which dragged on for
six months in 1997.

The threat of a repeat in 1998 has driven prices sharply higher since January, although both
metals have come off the peaks they hit in Asia on Monday.

Palladium was softer at $260.50/$262.50 versus its New York close of $266.00/$268.00.
Platinum was also down at $394.50/$396.50 as against a close of $395.50/$397.50.

Silver, last at $5.75/$5.79 an ounce, was 11 cents down on its New York close and well below
key $6.00 support it breached in late European trade on Monday.

( $ equals 37.45 Belgian Francs )

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:17
Ray (gold) ID#411149:
Copyright © 1998 Ray/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD- ie Pat Robertson, I been tellin them friends for
a time that this market is akin to the scene in the movie The Ten
Commandments of the party/orgy goin on when Moses came down from
the mountain with the tablets. You know these friends condem bars
and the like but they don't think this money orgy is any problem.

SWP1- those DROOY warrants are only offered on the local exchange to
that stock as far as I know. Here is a story that may interest you and
anyone else in RANGY and DROOY.
http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/polarbear031798.html

Tally Ho

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:10
D.A. (silver) ID#7568:
Copyright © 1998 D.A./Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All:

Yesterday saw liquidation by one of the large technical trend following funds. They sold somewhere between 25 and 35 million ounces. Their position was supposed to be something on the order of twice this amount so we will probably see the remaining position liquidated today. A few large pieces of yesterday's sale went to Phibro, Mr. B's brokerage. Since everyone and their mother was front running the fund sale, and continues to do so, look for substantial weakness in the morning, followed by a rally towards the end of the day once it is confirmed that the sale is done. Sell the rumor, buy the fact.

The key to the near term future of the silver market will be where the silver lands. Because the fund was an owner of futures rather than physical, the silver was purchased and then lent into the market. As this trade is unwound the silver must be borrowed back from the market. If it ends up in strong ( non-lending ) hands, then we will see the lease rates jump back up. If this occurs we will be heading higher sooner, rather than later.

The fact that SSC has made the complete round trip vis a vis the WB announcement lends support to the idea that the sentiment has turned bearish enough so that a meaningful rally may ensue. Those that paniced in on WB's announcement are panicing out now. When they return at SSC 2.00 it will be time to exit again.


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 08:05
Ted (STUDio.R......................I'm 'game'........eh) ID#330175:
Beautiful sunny day in good ole Cape Bretton----am out of firewood--off ta pound the crap out of some wood ( with my maul....eh! ) ---go CRUDE~~~~

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:58
Speed (Johannesberg Gold down 6%...) ID#286199:

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:58
Silverbaron (Waitin' for ANOTHER's buddies..........) ID#289357:

..........to come in and clean out the COMEX gold stockpiles. Looks like an open, VISIBLE purchase is the only thing that may have a positive effect on the gold market.

All these CB private sales ( to BIS, or whomever ) are only going to continue to push the price DOWN, DOWN, DOWN. ( and oil is sinking even faster than gold - bad news for the gold-for-oil deals )


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:56
Poorboys (Justice for all) ID#224149:
Queen –ANOTHER one bites the dust ---Radio ga ga ---- I have four strait jackets made from the bark of hemp –one is intertwined with universal water –the second is welded with the thought of human and animal Karma ---- the third is nourished with the seeds of the earth. ---- The fourth is covered with the fire of heavenly justice. --- SORRY NO LEATHER ---away to work in a rush.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:52
Donald__A (Venezuela cries uncle in oil price war) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/oil_market_3.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:52
Reify (No change) ID#413109:
Still believe this week is a great time to be buying PMs. This drop
is ideal for those that had the patience to wait. I wasn't one of them
and feel very strongly that today and tomorrow are the time to buy.

The Randgold report was great. Just after you made it the stock saw
some additional volume. Nice going Polarbear, and John Disney.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:49
STUDIO.R (@Teddo...let's wing our way down to the Chicken Sheik.......) ID#288369:
Another Sheikh en Bake's crowin' has got this ol' Sheikh en my Bootz layin' an egg. Plop! One more chorus of Chicken Sheik please...Cocka doodle ugh....mornin'!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:48
Argent (Miraculous turnaround?) ID#255217:
Let's see now, $320 - $288 = $32. By Friday. Gold up $32 in 3 days? There goes ANOTHER'S credibility. If it was ever there.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:43
Ted (R.I.P) ID#330175:
'Big Trader'----Puetz-----'ANOTHER'~~~~~~~~~~

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:42
Ted (Cutting back in the Canadian 'oil-patch') ID#330175:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/docs/news/19980318/ROBFront/roill.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:41
Ted (YEN looking shaky) ID#330175:
HI JIN!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:41
Realistic (Gold, Silver and Platinum news ) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The signs became quite clear once again a couple of weeks ago when Gold turned back down from the important 300 level under the weight that Central Banks are waiting in line to dump more Gold, one after the other. Instead, several people prefered to close their eyes and add even more Gold positions to their portfolio ( futures, options, you name it! ) because to them, Gold had one one way to go and it was up. Gold is now $10 cheaper from 2 weeks ago and given the negative attitude that developed towards the bullion once it failed at the $300 level, it's not only a matter of how much more downside is there at risk but for how long Gold will be turned back down from the 300-310 area and this is where so many people have also difficulties facing reality.

Looks like Gold is now settling into a new lower range again and even if 299 tons of sales from Belgum is not that much, the problem is that there is much more unhoarding looming on the horizon.

In Silver, there is still some time for deliveries but the odds are now shrinking as lots of longs have been shakened out again. The last of the fund longs in the second wave of buying came in at 585 to 610 and so those funds might be underwater and less interested to take delivery. The first wave of fund buying occured in late November after Silver took out 557. Until Silver gets down to the January low of 541 or that 557 level, there is still a little chance for a rally.

In Platinum, we heard yesterday that some commercials are discussing the removal of PGM metals from their processes. Both ceramic condenser makers and auto concerns promised to rid their products of expensive Platinum metals in the future. Prices are too high for physical!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:37
JIN (asian markets and japan nikkie....) ID#206358:
Copyright © 1998 JIN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved


JAPANESE STOCKS PLUNGE
( 18-Mar-1998 )

Tokyo stocks took a hit today on increasing worries
about a recession and fading hopes for an income tax
cut. The Nikkei average closed about 380 points, or
more than 2%, down. Most of the losses came in late
afternoon trade, triggered by a sharp fall in Nikkei June
stock futures. Investors barely noticed another record
high on Wall Street overnight because of other factors.
The latest economic data showed Tokyo department
store sales fell in February for the 11th month in a row.
A senior ruling party official was also quoted by a local
newspaper as saying the government's economic
stimulus measures will not include income tax cuts.

JAPANESE YEN FALLS
( 18-Mar-1998 )

The Japanese yen today fell to an 8-week low against
the US dollar, piercing the 130 level. The sharp slide
came in the wake of a string of grim economic figures
which showed Japan on the verge of recession. In other
Asian currencies, the Thai baht fell sharply to a low of
41.35. A censure motion against the government of
Chuan Leekpai hurt market sentiment. The Indonesian
rupiah was flat, hovering around the 10,000 mark. But
traders were hopeful of a compromise in today's meeting
between International Monetary Fund officials and
government members in Jakarta. But the Malaysian
ringgit was sharply higher from yesterday's close. That's
because dealers were hoping the upcoming economic
package from Finance Minister Anwar Ibrahim will help
the economy get back on its feet.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:35
Bully Beef (94 trillion) ID#259282:
I had a dream agreat Tornado of money blew across the land and out to sea. But the gold remained on shore. Can you say HHALLELUJA brother. Cause I caint spell it.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:30
Ersel (@ANOTHER...Why hast thou forsaken us ?) ID#228283:


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:26
Speed (EMU) ID#286199:
Copyright © 1998 Speed/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
We are always looking months ahead for a reason to buy gold...


The EMU will hold gold in its reserves. Beyond the reserves contributed directly to the ECB, the ECB will have effective control over all of the gold ( 14,000 tons ) and U.S. dollars in every CB in the union. Germany, France and Italy will control these reserves and they are not selling gold. But all that aside, the most important question is not how much gold will be held. The most important question is what will become of all the surplus U.S. dollars held?!!! The EMU holds far more dollars than gold. If they send those significant amounts of dollars back to the U.S., then all commodities will be repriced in an upward direction.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:24
Silverbaron (COMEX breakdown 3/17) ID#289357:

Gold:

321,832 Registered

245,742 Elligible

567,574 Total net change +89,484 !!

Silver:

36,260,817 Registered

54,186,516 Elligible

90,447,333 Total net change - 56,392

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:22
Ersel (@POLARBEAR & John Disney....) ID#228283:

Super fine research paper on RANGY .!!! DEFINATELY a buy. Going to do so when NYSE settles down.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:17
Ersel (COMEX ...ugly day ahead ....) ID#228283:

Gold down $4.80

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:10
goldhound (Belgium Gold Sale - Bullish) ID#432169:
Is there any significance in the fact that Belgium's reserves now stand at 16%? Could this possibly give us a looking glass into the % that will be held by the EMU ... this may be viewed as quite bullish

Comments?


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:03
Ted (Mornin mates!!!) ID#330175:
G'Day Aurator & Nick @C~~~~~~~~~~~

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 07:01
John Disney__A (Waiting for Goldot) ID#24135:
to all ..

Did Samuel Beckett write the script for Kitco

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 06:58
John Disney__A (stillwater is a peanut.) ID#24135:
for watcher..
stillwater comes nowhere near filling
the US demand. They are practically a non
event.
Maybe by 2003 they will be a bigger
peanut ..

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 06:45
panda (@) ID#30116:
Donald -- Isn't this gold sale in violation of the EMU agreement? In other words they are using the proceeds to reduce debt. Perhaps, technically, it is not a violation, but a violation in the spirit of the agreement?

BBML....

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 06:41
Donald__A (Asian shipowners horrified & hurting. Sail west with cargo, return empty.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/asia_shipp_1.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 06:40
Ted (YEN-gold crashin) ID#330175:
April gold down 3.60 @ 288.70 ( and I thought ( duh ) ANOTHER had the 'inside dope'~~~~

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 06:36
Donald__A (Chronology of recent Belgian gold sales) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/chronology_1.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 06:32
Donald__A (Belgian gold sold to reduce massive state debt) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/belgium_go_1.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 06:15
POLARBEAR (RANDGOLD & EXPLORATION (RANGY)) ID#183109:
http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/polarbear031798.html
New article John Disney and I just finished writing for GOLDen EAGLE.
( delete the en from goldEN-eagle.com )
The article overviews all of RANGY's ASSETS, including DURBAN,HARMONY,CROWN CONSOLIDATED, RANDGOLD RESOURCES, M-1 Diamond Pipe, and other RANGY ASSETS.
Happy reading, and thanks for the help John.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 06:12
Nick@C (G'noink all) ID#393224:
Keep the fires burning!!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 06:10
Nick@C (299) ID#393224:
I wonder where ANOTHER is going to keep his 299 tonnes

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 06:09
aurator (counting pigs) ID#257148:
bb

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 06:04
Nick@C (Donald) ID#393224:
Re-read your post on Belgian gold. Can't figure out how much gold they've KEPT. This might give us a clue about Euro %ages.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 06:02
Donald__A (@Nick-C) ID#26793:
There is no word on the purchaser on the net that I have found yet. When the Australian sale was announced the drop in price was after the sale. Could the drop on Belgium have been before the sale? If there is no drop today that will be a good sign. The list of those countries with the ability to buy is very short. Maybe Buffett sold his McDonald shares to buy real gold for his own arches.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:56
Donald__A (Even profitable Korean companies will collapse at IMF imposed interest rates) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/korea_rate_1.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:51
Nick@C (Donald) ID#393224:
Who bought the 299? POG down a few bucks, I think, on expectation of reaction to sale of 299, not the sale itself

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:48
aurator (And raises the intelligence of my australian brethren) ID#257148:
-
Eddie
On your Hyundais. Have you been following the price of Ginseng? More bangs for your buck. Uh Hu


Nicoretto
I'm 16 months off the habit too. I was looking again today at those puts as quoted in the NZ Herald. The Gov of NZRB allowed today that the NZ economy was going to be hit harder by the SE Asian crisis than they had previously anticipate. Uh Duh! This guy is paid a fortune to say sh!t like that



Markus
IMF in NZ? I seem to remember that. I am no historian, neither am I an epircurean. I wonder if you could direct this mushroom to more facts on this. I recall at the time the IMF were brought into NZ in the '70s as a result of national ( thass Right in NZ ) promises for superannuation spending as an election bribe. This, of course, may just be manure.

LGB
You're posting just fine. Actually doing rather well, now that you've laid off dissing sheep.

Sheep out number humans by 15:1 downunder. It makes for a bigger gene pool.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:46
Nick@C (Donald/Belgian 299) ID#393224:
Salute. You are quick.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:44
Nick@C (Ersel/A'cious/Donald) ID#393224:
G'nite chilly Midwest.

Fine sermon, Auraxtiansoldieracious.

Donald--I think Japanese savings are going to pull their kimonos out of the hibachi. The populace will just grin and bear it when all of the 'postal' savings go to support the bankrupt banks and other institutions. Japanese are nothing if not stoic.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:43
Donald__A (Belgium says it is on track for Euro conversion) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980316/belgian_eu_2.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:38
Donald__A (FLASH! FLASH! Belgian CB confirms sale of 299 tons) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/table_belg_2.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:36
Ersel (@Donald_A..) ID#228283:

Good post. Wonder how many fingers the MOF has left to place in the proverbial dike, which like many older Hyundai are hemoraging on the roadsides.
Let's see.. Prop up the yen, the market ,the banks,the corporations,the U.S. Bond market, the yen carry trade...Aw heck, still got some fingers left to use.
Go Gold and goodnight from the chilly Midwest.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:29
Nick@C (Auratorius) ID#393224:
Funny thing--I got that same 'feeling' today and went out and bought a whole bunch of puts. Can't ignore that shiver up the spine that says sumpthin' is about to happen. Danged puts have accounted for the majority of my 'winnings' in the big casino in the sky this year. Timing is everything of course. I don't 'hold' for very long. One particular 'put' I trade has almost given me whiplash!! I'm feeling like an intern in the White House. Paid well, though!!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:28
Donald__A (Indonesian Corps. (Corpse?) ask Japan for bond repayment delays) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/indonesian_3.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:27
aurator (There's good in gold and evil in god) ID#257148:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Dusenberg/Edsel/proton/hyundai Ersel
gimme 18 hours to find info & post.


One of the great things about trusting gold, is meeting other people who trust gold. These are long-lasting values.

I know you yanks are really imbued and imbibed wiv de kr!stianity. I bet you have no idea how offensive it is to read about. You're good people but your kry-for-humanity holier than you suffering, suffering, guilt, oh guilt religion is the cause of more wars, more bloodshed and more evil on this earth than all the pagans you rail against.

I'm sure noone cares too much. But, I know, as the millenium approaches. more cwazy cwistians are gonna peddle their cwixian xwap here. There will be no room for an aurator who loves people.Who loves humanity. Who believes that children are no more innocent than adults. Pox on your evil, evil religion.



Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:23
Donald__A (Japanese bank bites the dust. Fifth largest financial failure in Japan) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/unit_of_ho_1.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:18
Donald__A (Asian currencies undervalued up to 40% (no mention that gold is undervalued) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980318/asia_curre_1.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:17
2BR02B? (auto rebates) ID#266105:


http://www.edmunds.com/edweb/Incentives.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:17
Ersel (@2BRO--O'auratious...) ID#228283:

@BRO thanks again! O'auratious..wish I owned an Edsel, the price now almost as good as GOLD.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:09
Donald__A (MOF says Japan will take decisive measures to act against yen weakness) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980317/japan_mof__1.html

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:06
aurator (Donald. Stamps. Litotes. A Fetid Lurking in the Wings. base 8. cabi Dumb Luck) ID#257148:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Donald

Yes, Thank you, as a one time philatelist --STAMPS are highly liquid & transportable assets, much more than your phillies etc, if you know what you're doing, and, of course, not confiscatable by the gobmint of the free, nor detectable by customs...
There is something rather large ( litotes ) and strange lurking in the wings at this time. Now. Something is lurking, it is not pleasant. ( ignore me I'm a paranoid in paradise )

Something does not stack up here. I'm trying to grapple with different units of account, and am thanking my maths teacher ( Ta DJ ) when I was 9 who thought we could count to base 8, and base 5 and base 2, so he taught us. We didnt know it was supposed to be difficult.

The important measure, is the universal unit of account. It is not the SDR, not the US $. Neither is it oil. It is gold.

I saw a fin-de-siécle post at another site recently. something like the shoeshine boy tipping stocks. I don't know why I made so much money in stocks last year. I did very well. I'm here to learn more.

Last time I knew the market would crash was at this time of the year in 1987. I distinctly remember collaring a broker ( he won't forger neither ) , cabin-boy on the bridge of the Titanic stuff--- by July/AUgust 87, I had almost stopped trusting my intuition. By September I knew I was wrong. Fortunately in October my funds were elsewhere.


Learn, from this. if you see any wisdom here. Mes amigos...dumb luck..As I was to find out later.


deluckode@irish_O_aurator_wedroppedthe_O_whenwestoppedgoingtochurch



Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:04
2BR02B? (@ersel/hyundai pricing) ID#266105:
http://www.hyundaiusa.com/elantra/index.htm


Current rebates @internet to follow.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 05:03
Donald__A (@NickC) ID#26793:
I got nearly 7 hours sleep, went to bed early. Why is Japan down 377? Do they need more sandbags to keep the Nikkei in check above 18000? Are you guys not doing your share?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 04:58
Nick@C (Such a deal!!) ID#393224:
Got a call from my dealer today ( I don't inject, I bury ) . He saves all his odd-bods for me. Has got some Canuck Olympic sets, an Iranian with squiggles on it, an Aussie set in nice hardwood case and some Austrian big-time neck hangers ( 19th century ) . Guess its 'buy some more relics' time.

Donald--shouldn't have 3 cups of coffee before bedtime, mate.
Auracious-oink!!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 04:51
Ersel (@auratious..) ID#228283:

Let's use @BRO's top o' the line Elantra Station Wagon w/everything you can get.No Dinars, please, just good old soft currancy. Go go go GOLD!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 04:45
SWP1 (@John Disney) ID#233199:

Have you seen projections for future Platinum use in fuel cells - or other NEW uses?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 04:42
aurator (Ersel. 223. Petrol. Pigs.Dinars. Gold. Haunches. Suits. Timmie Green. Golden, Gold Bug.) ID#257148:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Edsel, I mean Ersel
Gimme your make and model I'll tell you NZ price, o'wise we're jes wisslin dixie.

BTW if you want to drop your jaw, you could ask me the price of petrol ( gasoline ) here. Now, we work in sensible, if ludicrous, metric standard measurements, litres and gallons.


If you want a standard, you gotta standardise, like maybe mint a sovereign for a couple of centuries, see what it buys, how many sweat-hours to earn one, or a look at a Dinar for a few centuries more, or, even, a PIG

Now den..

223

Serendipity, she's a friend of mine


PIGS


My friend, the Cambodian refugee who works hard at a Hong Kong Bakery business, who likes his fast cars, and who wears his gold around his body, was having trouble with his new high-performance Japanese car, looking under it. I squat on my haunches ( suits-r-us, 6-Pack :- ) ) look under his car, What's the problem? asks the aurator.

It's loose. What do you call this? He enquires, pointing at the muffler. I notice he has changed his gold necklace. His 2 teale bar, beautiful from some Singapore mint, has been replaced by a PIG.
Is that a korean Pig? asks aurastupido.
Sure.
Is it 24 karat?
No, 14K I think. They are only 9K or 14K.
How much does it weigh, looks like one taele?
Yes. I think so. 1 Taele.

223 It looked like a little pig. Nothing more, nothing less. I seem to remember Timothy Green's latest? 1993? edition of The World of Gold Today, saying something about a californian mint selling repros of the pigs? I shall have to re-read a chapter or two.

What questions would you like me to ask him?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 04:42
Ersel (@2BRO...) ID#228283:

Looks like the BOJ is going to defend their position in the market to the bitter end. Wonder where the dollars are going to come from: U.S. Bonds ? As the tolerant1 would say..Hmmmmmmmm.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 04:37
Ersel (@Nick@C ..) ID#228283:
Many thanks, bet everyone wants to know what a markdowm is. Me too: should have been markdown.Sorry. Go Gold!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 04:32
Donald__A (@Aurator) ID#26793:
Did you catch my post on the postal comparison? A sovereign would buy enough postage to mail 169 First Class ( US ) letters in 1903.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 04:30
2BR02B? (@nikkei) ID#266105:

Senior officials of the LDP publicly state their aim
of propping up the stock market to get through the March
31st int'l reserve reporting requirement for their banks.
Goal: Nikkei 18,000. Date: March 31st. Amount: $10.2B in
public funds.

That's a use of tax revenues?

That's a stock market?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 04:29
Ersel (@2BRO...) ID#228283:

Thanx for info. Here in the chilly Midwest the window sticker is about the same but the rebate is $2500 with an additional $400 off to a college graduate, so markdowms are on the way.

Donald_a thanx for your earlyier post! I appreciate that.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 04:24
Nick@C (G'day Ersel) ID#393224:
From memory -- cheapo Hyundai ( Excel ) is A$13990.
mid-range Hyundai is @A$16990.
top model Hyundai is @A$24990 ( with everything but a dishwasher ) . Don't hold me to prices as they are my best guesses from tv ads etc.

A$ is about .67 $US. Cheers, Nick.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 04:20
2BR02B? () ID#266105:

is correlated=isn't correlated.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 04:17
2BR02B? (@ersel) ID#266105:

Hyundai loaded Elantra GLS '98 wagon list about $17k.
Currently $1000 rebate, salesmen say 'maybe better.'
The Korean wages are certainly advantaged by the currency
disparities but, as I understand it, alot of the costs
of materials-- glass, steel, upholstery-- are imported
so a 30% or 40% off 'firesale' is directly correlated
and probably not going to develop.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 04:07
Ersel (@aurator and Nick@C) ID#228283:

Out of curiosity, what does the Korean made top of the line Hyundai auto sell for where you are? Methinks we are getting ripped as their currancy is %30 less than the U.S. $ I know this sounds unrelated to this forum, but I'm attempting to gain a perspective to come up with an off the wall gold-dollar-won figure.
Humor me.

Go gold!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 04:02
Hedgehog (from little things big things grow.........) ID#39845:
Copyright © 1998 Hedgehog/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
CHINA DEMANDS THE RELEASE OF 29
FISHERMEN HELD BY THE
PHILIPPINES.
Wednesday 18 March, 1998 ( 6:20pm AEDT )





China has demanded the release of 29 fishermen arrested by
the Philippine navy near a disputed area in the South China
Sea.

The Chinese were caught a week ago with rare coral and
dynamite aboard their boats after a brief chase near
Scarborough Shoal off the western Philippine province of
Zambales.

They were charged with illegal possession of explosives and
gathering of endangered corals.

The Chinese Embassy in Manila says the Chinese were
fishing in the area, which China considers its possession and
did NOT violate any Philippine law.

It has asked the Philippines to immediately release the
fishermen and their boats.




Return to the World News Menu

plus ...news from the Asia Pacific Region in Indonesian, Chinese and Tok Pisin

© 1998 Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Wed Mar 18 18:30:00 1998 ( AEDT )

AEDT = Australian Eastern Daylight Time which is 11 hours ahead of UTC ( Greenwich Mean Time )

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 04:00
2BR02B? (@boy named sue) ID#266105:

Hey, now we're talkin'. Like they say, one man's ceiling
is another man's floor.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 03:55
aurator (and cars are falling in price, so are computers, hmmmmm) ID#257148:
2B&c
Your last post is resonant of my post of a similar situation in NZ with a closed Timbermill aiming at Korean logs. Remember the lessons of Carnegie. more people will lose more money thinking that assets are cheap in the deflation than every lost it in the irrational exhuberance of the stock market.
Don't go picking the bottom, 'cos the bottom will pick on you

jes made that up, I think.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 03:49
2BR02B? () ID#266105:

Noticed the French and German bond yields have reached
post-war lows, Treasuries nearing recent record again. Despite
money valves open far wider than growth justifies within
monetarist frameworks. Hmm.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 03:35
Nick@C (All you weenies out there/and weenettes!!!) ID#393224:
The 'market' is giving you one last chance to buy at under 300 and most of you are one sake away from hara kiri!!! A few months from now, when gold is caught in the 360-380 range, how many of you are gonna say Jeeeeeez, why didn't I buy some when it was under 300? Everyone was saying 250--and I couldn't risk it!! The gold shares have all tripled in price and I missed out!! Jeeeeeeeeeeeeez, I'm a weenie!!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 03:26
2BR02B? (@randy gandy dancers) ID#266105:
Copyright © 1998 2BR02B?/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Local news-- the custom metric-cut post & beam sawmill
producing for the Japanese housing market closed in December.
Cominco purchased, renovated and reopened an abandoned
nickel mill a few years back, shuttered for many years
after local hard rock reserves played out. They were
shipping in low sulfur/high content sand/mud nickel
reserves from the South Pacific, New Caledonia. That
mill shuttered two weeks ago, uneconomic nickle prices.
The diesel sales at the commercial dock in the harbor
where the fishing trawlers refuel is down two-thirds
in diesel sales, a seafood processor down from 300 to
100 employees, a marine electronics shop down to 3
employees from eight. The collapse of the fishing
industry, like the wood products, has more to do
with regulation that the Asian export situation per se.
One can pick up a lot of boat for conversion or renovation
at foreclosure auctions/pierage arrearages for less than
the value of the marine electronics on board.

Speaking of boats, where's Chris.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 03:19
Watcher (Stillwater...SWC) ID#240142:
John...thanks for the info.
SWC shoveled 271,000 oz. Pd in 1997 and 84,000 oz. Pt. Shuld easily exceed that this year. Goal is 1 mil. oz/yr Pd and 300k Pt oz/yr in 2003.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980128/co_stillwa_1.html

Saw a reference on SI thread that GM tried to horn in on development in exchange for special pricing but SWC turned them down.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 03:17
aurator (Platinum rings) ID#257148:
cwusty
I have the JM interim Plat review, which has that US data. Has it been changed in final review? mine not in yet.
Look at US Jewellery demand cf previous years. ( 140 in 97: 90 in 96: 65 in 95;; '000 oz ) cj Japan jewellery 1,380, Down on previous years...

RJ seems to have al lot of it under his mattress. Plat, I mean.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 03:13
Jack (Disney @ 01:51) ID#252127:
Copyright © 1998 Jack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

You should ask that question to indiviguals from the various nations forming the new Euro currency.
I understand that there is a lot of apprehension and that many feel that they are being force fed the Euro.
Indivigual Europeans seeing that their cultural idendity is being sacrificed for an elitist financial goal, may purchase whatever gold that would be sold by those indivigual CB's as security. IMO that gold would go like hot cakes, especially with past and present currency problems, the present which are rather evident.
Also playing the game of buying currencies and judging which will increase will be no more.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 02:53
John Disney__A (Stillwater ) ID#24135:
for Watcher

Johnson Matthey platinum review has 1997 US
auto catalyst demand at 840,000 oz minus 290,000oz
recovery . Total US 1997 demand is 1,315,000 oz.
TOTAL 1998 demand should be at least 1.5 mill oz.

How much platinum does Stillwater produce?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 02:42
Nick@C (My apologies) ID#393224:
Sorry, my last post. I pressed the submit button a year too early.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 02:39
Nick@C () ID#393224:
Dow 15001
Gold 151
Dow/gold ratio 99.34437 ( new high )

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 02:23
Nick@C (RJ) ID#393224:
Re: My Mar 17th,04:49.
Thankyou,glad you enjoyed it, but it wasn't me that did it. It was the Victoria Bitter!! Now where is Xaviera, anyway?

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 02:22
Watcher (RJ...pgm outlook) ID#240142:
RJ...don't you think Stillwater can effectively supply US auto makers?

Watcher

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 02:06
John Disney__A (silly question) ID#24135:
to all
if you go to market details ..from the Kitco home
page .. you can find european/asian spot prices ..

BUT what are these things the green light indicates
the market is open .. but the date says march 17th.

Are these current gold prices they show 293 plus
I should be so lucky.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 01:54
aurator (Overpaid, oversexed and overhere kiwi complaint of US GI's in NZ on R & R WWII.) ID#255284:
Donald
Thank you for your thoughts on the buying power/earning time for a sovereign when translated into US conditions. It is food for thought. Chacun a sa goute ( too salty to check spelling, sorry Bart ) I must think some more about this. Relative value of a coin for the best part of a century.
---
Old Soldier your mar 17 19:13
amen.

JIN
many thanks

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 01:54
John Disney__A (Nasty Scenarios) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
to All
No 1. Oil goes to 10$. This Translates into DECREASING
CPI in USA for next year. This results in lower
bond yields and thus higher p/e on US stocks . Bull
continues another year .. Gold continues under pressure
until around may 1999 at which time effect of oil
price drop will wash though CPI calculation.
Gold rises then ( maybe ) .
No 2.
All Eorocrats lying about high gold backing for Euro.
Since all national currencies will be lumped together,
no need to hold reserves to protect one European
currency against another ( like protect franc from dmark ) .
Only need reserves for protection against $ and yen
( forget pound as Blair will have UK in by next round ) .
Net effect of euro will be less total European
reserves needed .. thus less gold needed.

Please tell me Im wrong on this and why.
For example, will individual Euro NATIONS continue to
hold gold, in addition to that held in Euro central bank
Does anyone know

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 01:53
aurator (Overpaid, ovesexed and overhere kiwi complaint of US GI's in NZ on R & R WWII.) ID#255284:
Donald
Thank you for your thoughts on the buying power/earning time for a sovereign when translated into US conditions. It is food for thought. Chacun a sa goute ( too salty to check spelling, sorry Bart ) I must think some more about this. Relative value of a coin for the best part of a century.

Old Soldier
amen.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 01:52
DBog (test) ID#267298:


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 01:20
jims (Buying CDE with Silver at $5.50) ID#252391:
Yes, I look for another possible break in Silver maybe lower than $5.50 which was originally my maximum downside, but the decline here in the last few days suggests quite a bit of downward momentum. In fact if oil were'nt up overnight,we might get a spike down tomorrow.

May be awhile till the last wash out takes place but with stocks still falls - down to 90.5 million ozs I don't see a protracted bear UNLESS oil goes to $10. Guess we won't know that till it happens, but my moeny is on the line in CDE at 10.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 01:10
JIN (CHINA GOLD SHOOT UP!) ID#206358:
ALL,
Read a reliable news from hong kong ( chinese verion ) ,try to translate into more proper english.

Article read:Lately,the gold price in China SHOOT UP!3300 REMINBIPER TAIL ( US 396.00 ) ,more expensive than hong kong ( 353.oo ) .Some speculators bought the bars and sold it to the govt BANKS.The amount were huge,until they can't effort to buy-in.These effect the miners around WESTERN KWANGXI,instead to sell ,they have to hold the metals!

BUT,The news didn't state the reasons of buying!Maybe,anyone here know about it?!

happy trading!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 00:36
RJ (..... Hee Hee Heeeeeeeee .....) ID#411259:

Nick@C @ Tue Mar 17 1998 04:49 ( Where have all the flowers gone...? )

Funniest thing I've seen here in weeks. Regarding #22. Ain't far from the truth, mate.

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 00:16
RJ (..... Fun Day Today, Folks .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Look for a SERIOUS spanking in silver tomorrow. The longs see the gap at 5.50 and they will wait for the fill to reload, leaving the funds free to sell our blessed silver into a black hole. I still have lots-o-silver in the mid $6 range, as do many, we will see those levels and higher before this whole thing is played out, but not before a bit more down. I too expect WB to buy more silver in the mid $5 range; he may end up with the 200 million oz he originally intended to buy.

Is it just me, or does anybody else crack up when they see WB printed here? I keep thinking of a frog in a top hat singing, Dubba - Dubba - Dubba - Yoo - BEEEeeee.

For the first time in since December, I am short gold. I think the lows will hold and I fear naught lower than 280 but risk must be tempered. The shorts are more of a hedge than a profit play.

I am buying platinum with both hands, several toes, one elbow, a knee, and other appendages not suitable for discussion in mixed company. The wild swings in palladium still make it too rich for my blood. The volatility is just too high. I will be content to ride the platinum caboose pulled by the mighty palladium engine.

Somebody asked why I am down on palladium. Not I, mate……… The auto manufacturers are tired of these Russian games and will retool back to platinum to gain predictability in future supplies. Palladium is great stuff: Its shiny, it cost a lot, and it changes ozone into oxygen. Platinum does all that, but somehow it seems more…………. noble, I guess. Anyway. Made my clients most of their profits in 1997 on a long silver/platinum - short gold scenario.

Seems like old times.

OK

LGB

My girlfriend say's I do an excellent Ronald Reagan, But the there you go again, somehow always comes out more Clint Eastwood than RR. Maybe I could change it to There you go again……..Punk. My John Wayne sounds like George Bush with a cold. I can do a passable Bill Clinton, with just the right amount of insincere sincerity, but who would want to? My Felix the Cat is legendary ( and not all that much different the Marge Simpson ) , and my Kermit the frog will make you long for you tender years when the letters Q and S and the number 4 were all you had to worry about. I can also do an excellent impression of a goldbug: Don't confuse me with the facts, I've made up my mind.

GO GOLD……………


Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 00:08
jonesy (@ Allen (USA), your 22:03) ID#251166:
Re. We are AT the bottom. Any little retest is just that.

Truly true. Really real. Ya catch that Dow/Gold ratio today? 30. Not 29-point-squishy squeeze. THIRTY!

Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 00:05
nanyuki (Ray & Crazytimes) ID#195112:
All I know is: the market is irrational, the manipulators are running out of runway, gold and oil are going up. What I don't know is when, but I think the rubberband is about to break. I am no astrologer but I put money on before the end of the year. God help those poor sould who have been sold the buy and hold pap. There is going to be a pot load of pain out there.



Date: Wed Mar 18 1998 00:01
HighRise (Everyone Has Gone Home) ID#401237:

Good Night Bart
I hope you can get data soon.

HighRise

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