KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 23:55
Ted (Good night Lurker 777............) ID#330175:
and all other kitcoites~~~~~P.S.-glad I have NO employees

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 23:50
Lurker 777 (223) ID#317247:
If it weren't for employees I would enjoy my work. Anyone want to trade some Phillies for beauty salons? Arrrrrrr

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 23:34
Ted (@ where I'm at(within a few miles of the farthest east point of Nova Scotia)) ID#330175:
http://cnn.com/WEATHER/NAmerica/us.reg/sat.ne.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 23:26
Repair man (MOZEL) ID#356184:
Mr. Mozel... will miss your posts. Where there is much knowledge, there is also much pain.


Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 23:22
Ted (Panda......................and 'Global warming') ID#330175:
'yer snow' is coming this way ( thankx ( ? ) )

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 23:21
robnoel__A (Sorry I lost my mind,I really don' feel sorry for Bill..on this mornings) ID#411112:

radio address,he said Republicans should not hold the UN ..IMF..at ransom,by with holding funds over the abortion issue...this is the same gut that last week told all 50 States if you don't drop your drinking levels from.10 to .o8 we will not send you highway funds...go figure......

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 23:13
Lurker 777 (223) ID#317247:

As a owner of five beauty salons I have a little insight into the influence of the hairdresser over public opinion. Beauticians are the most liberal group of people on the face of the earth. Furthermore, please except my apology for the chaos America is in because of the liberal bias being exhorted from my employees lips.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 23:12
JP (More comments on Deflation) ID#253153:
The price of oil currently is $14.00 per barrel . The oil companies break even point for producing oil in the US is $13.00. If the oil price declines below $13.00 most of the oil producers and the drillers will shot down.
Again, they have lot's of suppliers which also will shut down. In Saudia Arabia it cost $ 2 per barrel to produce oil. As the price of oil declines and the demand for oil also declines ,imports from the Middle East will rise.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 23:09
crossbow (@Prometheus) ID#342397:
Many thaks as well

Crossbow

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 23:08
crossbow (Robnoel) ID#342397:
Many thanks.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 23:07
aurophile (presidential peccadillos) ID#256326:
Aurator: or as de-flowers or gennifer flowers. whatever works. nitey nite all. aurum vobiscum+++.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 23:07
Prometheus (@crossbow) ID#210235:
French Roosters and British Sovereigns are available for only a couple of percent over the cost of bullion. They're pre-'33. The sovereigns are nice looking, too.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 23:06
robnoel__A (Crossbow.as a dealer among other things,confiscation should be the last thing to consider) ID#411112:
Copyright © 1998 robnoel__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

i know my brothers in the coin world like to
use this as a selling point,I do not my
feeling...take my gold take my gun.... same
responce..from my dead cold hands.....it's a
thing called FREEDOM ...your best choice in
my opion 1/10 0z American Eagles yes there is
a spread ( buy/sell ) 10 % ..benifits fractional
gold...semi numismatic ...big demand in
jewlery...current price around $38.00 as the
price of gold moves higher so does the
spread.. the worst thing that could happen
is it becomes worth it's face value of $5.00...

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 23:03
Prometheus (@robnoel) ID#210235:
Good evening. Promise we won't even look ( much ) if those late night victories become fodder for the media. Unless you give top secret clearance and double pay to everyone who pleases ya.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 23:02
JP ( Money Supply Reduction) ID#253153:
Copyright © 1998 JP/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
In the beginning of run away deflation it takes a big default to create loss of confidence. It seems to me that some countries in South East Asia are the verge of defaulting on their international obligations. The process has already begun and will not end until the deflationay trend exhaust itself. Most of the large banks around the globe are over extended in their lending practices and can't do anything about that but pray. By the way, no politician or central banker can't change the trend. Look at Japan,they have tried every thing to inflate their economy but it is getting by the day.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:57
panda (Say good night all....) ID#30116:
Good night all....

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:57
aurator () ID#255284:
aurophile
I've heard of Mt Rushmore, Now I look forward to seeing the Presidents immortalised as flowers. Philodendron lol

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:54
panda (JP) ID#30116:
You have to shrink the money supply before you get defaults.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:51
aurophile (the nartional clinton monument) ID#256326:
Which leads me to my real purpose as national committee chairman for the william bill jefferson clinton monument. This poor boy rose from obscurity to leadership of the freebie world. I think a phallic monument at Land-of-Lakes Arkansas, Foggy Bottom, or other suitable venue is the least we can do to honor this great philanderer, no, philodendron. no. philanthroposophist. donations gratefully received.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:48
crossbow (robnoel) ID#342397:
Should be robnoel, sorry.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:48
panda (Ted) ID#30116:
Well, I've done my part for the PGMs this weekend. I installed some platinum tipped spark plugs in the old buggy... Now I think I'll go and retire to think about this global warming stuff, as I was replacing spark plugs while it was snowing...

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:47
JP ( Deflation Process) ID#253153:
In Deflation, the public demand for currencies will decrease with the results of shrinking money supply through defaults, collapsing commodities prices ( look at oil--currently $14 ) ,collapsing property values , rising unemployment and loss of confidence. This plus rising imports and declining stock prices ( due to declining profits and losses ) will lower
interest rates . That's how you get it.


Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:47
crossbow (Ronboel @ latenight bar victories) ID#342397:
Were those victories over lasses under your command. I think not.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:41
robnoel__A (Starting to feel sorry for Bill,I would sure hate for all my late nite bar victorys) ID#411112:
to appear on national TV,then again I don't have the power to tax or send your kids to war...so let him pay the price...if that got your attention Honorable Mozel,come home

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:36
crossbow (Donald's 19:27) ID#342397:
Copyright © 1998 crossbow/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Am over my Stage Fright at this learned forum I have a question that's been haunting me for some time. If the confiscation laws allow for taking of assets i.e. post 1933 coins etc. what makes anyone believe that
the laws will not be amended to include those pre 1933 coin assets when
it serves the powers that be. Remember the Clinton reversionary tax of a
few years ago?

In view of that could someone advise me as to what pre '33 coins can be purchased that would provide the greatest asset value per price. That is, the lowest premium over spot per price. That is, am not interested in numismatics but protection for the family.

Also, where is Haggis? Have enjoyed his contribution to this forum and find it absent of late.

Thanks in advance.


Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:33
Ted (Panda........creepin-inflation) ID#330175:
Panda---In Vermont my property taxes have soared for years---My insurance bills have soared----and all this in the era of NO inflation ( aren't we blessed ( ? ) ...P.S. My property taxes in Cape Breton soared ( eh,Caper ) too but I guess ( duh ) we ain't in them cpi-ppi stats,huh

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:32
aurophile (Aurator) ID#256326:
Yessir, General Brock lost his life but gained a phallus at Queenston Hts. after distinguishing himself in Michigan. He may well be Senor Clinton's hero.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:24
panda (TED) ID#30116:
No, I wouldn't be implying that. I'm stating it as a fact. Of course, the rebuttal is, It depends on your point of view...

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:23
The Hermit (@ Donald_A) ID#372248:
Well stated! Aren't U.S. Dollars just wonderful? I personally choose gold!

The Hermit

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:22
aurator (Bad hair day in paradise) ID#255284:
223
Just as the easiest way into a castle is through the kitchen ( Sun Tzu? ) so the easiest way into the White House is through the hairdressers?

I kin believe it.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:21
panda (Deflation?) ID#30116:
How does one deflate a fiat currency? I suppose one could refuse to print money or extend credit. Under a gold standard, you would demand payment in a form ( gold ) which some don't have. This would lead to liquidation of assets to acquire gold to pay the debt, thus, 'deflation' in prices and a contraction in business.

At what point would the gods of fiat money cave in? After all, once the 'public' becomes aware of the 'source' of their ill state... they would surely demand 'relief'.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:20
oris (Mozel) ID#238422:
On behalf of my beloved brother John Disney
and all honorable gold-loving public...

DearMozel,

Let me know who forced you to leave.
I'll take care of the guilty one, you know
what I'm capable of...

Come back, Mozel.

Your Respectful Friend Oris



Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:19
Donald__A (@Hermit) ID#26793:
Inflation is stealing too. Taking your gold at $42 is just a little more personal. Just a different way of doing the same old thing.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:18
The Hermit (@ Donald_A) ID#372248:
Silly me, whatever was I thinking? We should be most grateful and willing to donate to our esteemed leaders.

The Hermit

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:16
Ted (Panda!!!) ID#330175:
Are YOU implying the government might be lying to us,huh

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:15
Snowball ($42.22 per oz ?) ID#234218:
It does make one wonder how they came up with the arbitrary $50.00 for a 1oz Eagle.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:14
aurator (Statuesque statues.=== 'stat you? == Gesundheit) ID#255284:
Uh Oh
Just had a power cut.
BTW the Canadians' Saviour, Brock, was a Guernseyman. I've seen his phallic monument too, 'phile. ;- )

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:14
Ted (Studio.R..............................and the land of the rising(?) sun) ID#330175:
Yeah,the place is BANKRUPT~~~~~Too many leemings...arrggghh

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:14
panda (Inflation?) ID#30116:
Well I've finally figured out my auto excise tax bill. I really am paying the lowest rate. The state just took the 'older' lowest rate and multiplied it by 6.5. So, does that mean there was a 550% increase in the lowest excise tax rate? How come this doesn't show up in the CPI or PPI? :- ) )

I guess the cost of processing paper work must have gone up dramatically in the last few years...

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:12
Speed (JTF - Yen Carry Trade) ID#286199:
Copyright © 1998 Speed/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The Japanese loan money at very low rates, say 1.5%. That money is converted to U.S. bonds paying 5.5 to 6%. The profit margin is enhanced by buying the U.S. bonds on margin. The deal gets even sweeter if the yen falls against the dollar, because the borrowed yen can be paid back at a discount. If you could borrow yen at 115 to the dollar and pay them back at 122 to the dollar you score an extra 10% or so. This has been going on for some time, draining capital out of Japan. If their banks raise interest rates while selling U.S. treasuries, then the flow of capital may go the other way. IMHO, the April-May period of this year is shaping up to be very significant.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:09
Donald__A (@Hermit) ID#26793:
Stealing? It's more than the Koreans got, what's the beef?

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:05
aurophile (I Perry you there.......) ID#256326:
Donald: My Commodore Perry ( Oliver Hazard Perry ) is better than your Commodore Perry....LOL!!!!!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:02
The Hermit (@ Donald_A & tolerant1) ID#372248:
Donald_A, thank you for your post of 19:27. The article is most informative. The article states the U.S. Government will pay for ( take ) confiscated gold at the official price - $42.22 per ounce rather than current market value ( spot price ) . Isn't this called stealing?

tolerant1, I know why I enjoy reading your posts. Go tolerant1! Continue to instruct us.


The Hermit

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:01
aurophile (aurator) ID#256326:
I used to visit the Perry Monument in my wanton youth, ah!, whilst touring the vineyards and wineries on that blessed isle. Nearly fell over the side once after a rather foxy bottle of Catawba's finest.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 22:01
Donald__A (Perry arrives in Japan; asks, Where's the beef? Still a popular expression) ID#26793:
http://www.umi.com/hp/Support/K12/GreatEvents/Perry.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 21:55
aurophile (Aurator Maximus) ID#256326:
Commodore Perry Sr., whose phallic monument stands on Put-in-Bay Island in Lake Erie, Ohio, USA, defeated the British and repulsed the British invasion of Detroit in 1812 during the colonial/minor league spillover of the Napoleonic Wars. ( This is when the Brits invaded and burned Washington DC and the Americans briefly invaded Canada. )
I had not realized that Commodore Perry II was the man who had roast beef in Japan. Obviously the Brits have always been pushovers compared to Japan, roastbeef or no.;- )

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 21:54
Donald__A (Commodore Perry arrives in Edo Bay, Tokyo, in 1853) ID#26793:
http://www.brunias.com/perry.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 21:52
Ted (Bubba was naughty) ID#330175:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/docs/news/19980314/GlobeFront/uclinn.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 21:51
crazytimes (Clinton) ID#342376:
We might see more things revealed about Clinton this week. The 60 Minute interview this Sunday with Kathleen Willey might change the polls of Clinton's popularity to the downside. That would be the time for more damaging evidence to come to light by keeping the momentum moving. IMHO

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 21:45
Ted (Just clouding over in Cape Breton---N.A. weather) ID#330175:
http://cnn.com/WEATHER/NAmerica/satellite_image.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 21:33
MoReGoLd (@JTF) ID#348286:
Yep, 25 Mill is just for research. An actual functioning interceptor would cost billions, but hey, its for the good of the whole world.
Asteroids travel at @ 17000 miles an hour, and even if a relatively small 300 foot ball hit a major city, millions of lives would be lost.
This probably won't be taken seriously until one does hit or comes very close. Well maybe not for another 2000 years! Hope!!!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 21:26
JTF (G' Nite all!) ID#57232:
This is addictive -- I still have a few hours left to do my chores. Love your post on food in Japan, aurator!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 21:25
223 (What is wrong with America and what we can do to change it.) ID#26669:
Copyright © 1998 223/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Today I had a conversation with my barber, whom I'll call Moses for tha sake of this essay. Moses has been watching the sorry shape of the US government and has been particularly tense over the fact that no one is doing anything to dethrone the madman, president clinton, despite his obvious misuse of power and lack of leadership ability.

Moses believes this is due to the fact that the beauticians whom each week cut the hair of the women of this country and on whom the major onus rests for shaping public opinion have been neglecting their all important job. He believes that the beauticians need to tell the American women to throw this bum out. Then the women can go and tell the American men and lo, it will be done!

Now this is not as easy as it sounds. If we have a bridge out who we call? We call the local department of transportation. Or if a school has water damage from an El Nino storm who do we call? We call the department of education. Or if the Serbs invade Serbia ( did I get that right? ) we call the department of defense. So it is obvious that if the cosmetologists are letting us down ( and from the looks of pictures in the paper of the women the prezz has done the last few years they're letting us down in a big way ) . So we need a Department of Cosmetology. Right?
Well, I didn't know about that, and I told him. I figured that if we had one, chances are the congress would refuse to approve the Secretary of Cosmetology or worse yet, she'd in trouble, then, not wanting to get her hair mussed up like Ron Brown or Vince Foster, refuse to shoot herself in the back of the head or worse yet, would figure out a hairstyle that Hillary would look good in.

But if that happened then Moses would be right. All the women would look more sympatheticly at the new Hillary ( perhaps darker with more curl ) and think how Ole Bill has been doing every girl in town and throw the bum out. But then myabe I'd be right 'cause they'd elect Hillary, which would be even worse.

Go gold!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 21:24
JTF (I stand corrected. ) ID#57232:
MoReGold: I should have read more carefully. They were actually talking about an asteroid probe, not an interceptor. Enjoyed the post. I can see BC distracted by Monica L, just as that big asteroid shadows the White House. And he says to himself -- 'Oh well -- guess I should have been thinking about my job instead'. Think of all the time -- our time -- he is waisting with those affairs. Four woman during the same period that he had the affair with Monica? I have trouble enough keeping up with one -- my wife!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 21:22
aurator (First Roast beef, then Teriyaki, then Hamburgers & Golden Arches) ID#250121:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
sam
here you go

First a caution: Never lend books.
After I posted I just knew I’d tell the story. So I went devilling ex auramontanus libris, and I could not find the book, so all this is from an imperfect mammary, and no spell check.

As I was writing this I thought it was very much off topic, the more I wrote, the more I realised that this is actually a rather important parable or metaphor. The Japanese as reef-fish.

Prior to the Meiji restoration meat was not eaten in Japan. Fish was eaten, and the fishermen and their families were on the lowest rung in Japanese society with criminals, because they killed animals. Remember though, the Japanese had met White Barbarians - the Dutch traders and a few hapless missionaries - who were like the Ainu of the Northern Islands, were not Japanese, therefore do not exist in any real sense.

The Trading Ports were opened up by Commodore ( got wrong rank last time ) Perry after Gunboat Diplomacy in the early 1880’s. ( I know I can be corrected on my dates, it will be welcomed ) and trading facilities were made available to a few licenced European traders by the Japanese authorities at the end of well-guarded peninsula & piers. If not exactly fenced off, the buildings were constructed to offer “protection” to the barbarians. The barbarians were thus shielded away from the people of culture. Such were the Trading posts wherein Commodore Perry and the other Europeans tried to fashion their lives as much as possible after their European homelands. The traders tried to trade, Japanese were even more protectionist then, missionaries tried to mission. The former had a hard row to hoe, the latter were given short shrift. All Japanese who had been converted to Christianity were slaughtered when the Dutch were evicted. Christianity was not regarded benignly in Japan.

One of the strange cultural quirks of an Englishman is his love of roast beef. Roast Beef, Yorkshire Pudding and a Spud or two allows an Englishman to relax in the knowledge that the sun never sets on the Empire and that everywhere is home.

The English sailors and traders saw cows aplenty, but they were treated with reverence, not quite like the Hindus, but cows were beasts of burden regarded highly, not eaten.

One day Perry decided he wanted Roast Beef.
Several representations were made by Perry’s cook to authorities to purchase a cow for a roast Sunday dinner. Many were refused before the authorities relented and allowed the Barbarians buy one cow. The beast was slaughtered. One prime Roast of Beef was cut off the cow by the cook for Perry’s Sunday dinner. There was then a problem what to do with the rest of the cow. No Japanese would touch it so it was buried. **Look to the metaphors, my kitcofriends**

A week or two later the process was repeated. Another roast dinner, another almost complete cow was buried. It happened a couple of times more. A restaurant owner in the town noticed this and thought it was a waste. He asked Perry’s cook for bits of the beast before it was buried and began experimenting with cooking beef.

The restaurateur did not have an oven like the English, so rather than the large slabs the barbarians cooked, he cut the beef into strips like noodles and vegetables. The taste was “masked” by a traditional soya based sauce, teriyaki. Cooked as an added flavout to the noodles. The Restaurateur and his family ate it. The smell of this cooking apparently almost caused a riot in the city. The citizens avoided the restaurant, retching from the smell. However the other European ex-pats were attracted to the restaurant, they had not been invited to share Perry’s roast. Soon the Restaurant was doing a roaring business to Europeans.

Then a most curious thing occurred, something changed, almost overnight amongst the Japanese. The Meiji restoration had “Opened the doors” of Japan to new ideas, especially European ideas. Novelty, when dressed as fashion, runs like wildfire around Japanese people, everyone will rush quickly to be the same. There was a change in fashion. It became fashionable to wear European clothes, to smoke a pipe, and, to try beef Teriyaki. The restaurant became a success story, the owner became rich very quickly. In no time a deep cultural prohibition had been turned on its head. Of course a butcher was considered to be about the same level as a criminal, but noone talks of the Ainu in Japan to this day.



Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 21:21
Ted (Thailand) ID#330175:
http://www.bangkokpost.net/today/140398_Business03.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 21:19
tolerant1 (The Hermit - Never, give up on, nor give out, nor ever ) ID#31868:
turn over mozel. Ever! mozel shall return when ready. Mine is a hot head and I wear my heart on my sleeve. My mouth is better muzzled at times, perhaps most.

Give up on mozel, hah!, never. Not in this lifetime, or any that preceeded this one or for infinity after this one.

The lantern that is mozel, glows, at present, in a field, soon he will illuminate the Mansion that is Kitco. mozel, as with each one of us, needs time unto himself and the educational solitude found therein.





Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 21:17
Argent (@ JTF, re: Japanese sale of US Treasuries) ID#255217:
Pardon my intrusive curiosity. You said the Japanese were selling US Treasuries? Do you happen to know the extent ( a token amount or a lot? ) And how long has this been going on? To me, this is an indication of a hole in the dike and can only get worse, once started. What is your opinion?

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 21:15
JTF (Asteroid interceptor? Logging off till tomorrow.) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
MoReGold: Only $25 million? That sure would be cheap! My guess is that we would need a space station or a moon base first, before this would be more than fantasy. An asteroid interceptor would need a power source that has not yet been invented. Could get rid of alot of hopefully useless nuclear weapons. Wouldn't it be ironic of the cold war of the last 20 years was the reason we are able to repulse an invading asteroid?

At least we ( our governments ) are talking about the problem. A disaster like this is not out of the question. All we need to do is remember what happened to Jupiter when that comet hit it a few years ago. A meteor/asteroid big enough to wipe out most of the mammalian life on earth could very well hit us every 50,000 years or so.

I think we should all remember how lucky we are to live as peacefully as we do on this little blue planet. The universe is a very hostile place on the time scale of hundreds of thousands, or millions of years. A nearby supernova could easily do us in -- or even a dust cloud obscuring the sun -- asteroids are not the only way we could be history. All the more reason to start human exploration of the solar system, and hopefully the galaxy. We have the skills to do it, I think, within the next 50 years -- if our world economic system holds together.

Here is to the future of humankind -- may we have the wisdom to solve enough of our problems so that we can explore the universe!

It would be a shame for us humans to fall on our faces just when we were learning how to walk!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 21:13
aurator () ID#250121:
5l
thank you!
JTF it was the name of the wind that was important, not the fleet ;- )

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 21:02
fiveliter (Aurator 20:30) ID#341312:
I think the name of the storm was Kamikaze-or in english, Divine Wind. I'm sure we're all familar with the 20th century manmade version. Fortunately it was less successful ( though still quite deadly ) than its predecessors.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 21:00
JTF (Yen carry trade?) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
speed: You are going over my physicist's head! I think you are talking about the trading of the Japanese Yen on the international markets -- short to intermediate term? My intuitive guess is that little will happen on April 1, unless it is already happened, since the Japanese aren't likely to suddenly change their tack. I am reaching since I am not a trader, just an investor, so that is just a guess IMHO.

My personal feeling is that we are likely to have turmoil in the Yen/dollar relationship, simply because the Japanese have already started to sell US treasuries.

Please enlighten me about what you know, since I am interested in learning more about the currency markets. What I am especially congnisant of is the remarkable effect of Greek sales of US dollars on Friday to support the Drachma. Perhaps with the worldwide realization that gold is more valuable than the US dollar ( now how did they figure that out? ) , the US dollar will have some more surprises this year. I shudder to think about every country in the world eventually having a currency crisis, and selling their US dollar reserves to prop up their weak currencies.

We have enough trouble of our own with our own finances to be at the mercy of other countries with problems.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:58
MoReGoLd (BUFFETT/BERKSHIRE: the giant holding company he manages, continues to sell stock) ID#348286:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
March 14, 1998

Billionaire investor Buffett cautious on stock prices

 CHICAGO ( Reuters ) - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said Saturday that Berkshire Hathaway Inc., the giant holding company he manages, continues to sell stock, but he hedged on pronouncing stock markets over-valued.
  In his closely watched annual letter to shareholders, Buffett said that Berkshire last year sold common stock holdings equal to five percent of its portfolio value.
  Some of the sales we made during 1997 were aimed at changing our bond-stock ratio moderately in response to the relative values that we saw in each market, a realignment we have continued in 1998, Buffett wrote in the letter.
  He added, There is no reason to think of stocks as generally over-valued -- as long as interest rates hold steady or decline and corporate returns on equity remain high.
  Noting that rates have fallen since he offered the same opinion a year ago, Buffett added, Returns on equity are not a sure thing to remain at, or even near, their present levels.
  Last year, stocks fell on the Monday after the weekend release of Buffett's annual letter, in which he said virtually all stocks were too high and that markets were over-heated.
  Since then, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 24 percent, continuing a history-making bull market.
  We have a very cheery consensus, Buffett wrote in this year's letter. That does not necessarily mean this is the wrong time to buy stocks ... Today's price levels, though, have materially eroded the 'margin of safety.'
  The so-called Oracle of Omaha runs a mammoth business with stakes in Coca-Cola Co., Gillette Co., Wells Fargo and Co., Washington Post Co., and other blue-chip corporations. Berkshire also owns GEICO Corp., the seventh-largest U.S. auto insurer, as well as companies that sell furniture, candy, shoes and jewelry.
  Net earnings were $1.5 billion on revenues of $10.4 billion last year for Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire, compared to net earnings of $2.1 billion on revenues of $10.5 billion in 1996.
  Two of Berkshire's most troubled recent investments have been in Salomon Brothers, the Wall Street brokerage and investment bank, and the commercial airline USAir.
  At times, the ... two had me mouthing a line from a country song: 'How can I miss you if you won't go away,' Buffett wrote in his customarily tongue-in-cheek style.
  After recovering from a bond trading scandal in 1991, Salomon was acquired last year by Travelers Group Inc. and merged with Smith Barney, paying Buffett an estimated $1.5 billion on an initial 1987 investment of $700 million.
  Berkshire's final results from its Salomon investment won't be tallied for some time, but it is safe to say that they will be far better than anticipated two years ago, he wrote.
  On the Salomon ordeal, Buffett said, For a time I felt like the drama critic who wrote: 'I would have enjoyed the play except that I had an unfortunate seat. It faced the stage.'
  USAir, recently renamed US Airways Group Inc, has also bounced back from near disaster, last month disclosing a new financial plan pledging to buy back $358 million in preferred stock held by Buffett. It is now almost certain that our US Airways shares will produce a decent profit -- that is, if my cost for Maalox is excluded, Buffett wrote.
  Berkshire realized major gains on long-term investments made cheaply in market downturns in the 1970s and 1980s, but has found few new comparable opportunities, Buffett said.
  Berkshire continually looks for ways to sensibly deploy capital, but it may be some time before we find opportunities that get us truly excited, he wrote, adding that one exception is Berkshire's insurance business. GEICO is flying and we expect that it will continue to do so, he said.
  At the same time, he counseled caution for the auto insurance business: GEICO is not the only auto insurer obtaining favorable results these days ... Intensified competition will soon squeeze margins very significantly.
  Buffett said he expects Berkshire's rate of progress in investments and operations to decline in the future.
  Our 1997 operating earnings were much better than we anticipated and also more than we expect for 1998, he wrote.
  Discussing Berkshire's investment alternatives, Buffett said prices for stocks and businesses are high.
  That does not mean that the prices of either will fall -- we have absolutely no view on that matter -- but it does mean that we get relatively little in prospective earnings when we commit fresh money, he said. In this market ... undervalued acquirees are almost impossible to find.
  Berkshire last year acquired International Dairy Queen, the U.S. purveyor of fast food and frozen custard. Buffett said that he and Berkshire vice chairman Charles Munger bring some expertise to Dairy Queen as regular customers.
  We have put our money where our mouth is, he said.
 

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:57
sharefin (Swing chart - try again) ID#284255:
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Imagesw.gif

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:48
sharefin (Swing chart updated) ID#284255:
-
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image225.gif
Nick@C
My swing chart says that there should be more to go before this upleg is through.

Watch out for ANZ it seems as though there is some sort of corporate activity going on.
Have a look at ANZ on Quote.com - there has been strong accumulation going on.
Maybe they will announce something soon.

WBC looks a better target.
It's probably a good time to start accumulating those put warrants though.
Increasing the positions as the stocks rise on this last leg.
These bank put warrants will be worth a lot as the next year unfolds.
If there is threats of financial choas due to financial meltdowns or Y2K they will climb well.

WOW, CML and NCPall look very good for put warrants to due to our deficit figures.
Reality will have to enter the OZ markets soon.

As to the 'least best time' - anytime from now on I guess.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:47
JP (Circuit Breakers) ID#253153:
Forget about circuit breakers. When a bear market begin, no circuit breaker can stop it. As a matter of fact, if circuit breakers were to be deployed, the market will decline that much further.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:47
MoReGoLd (@Intercept Clinton) ID#348286:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Lawmaker Urges Asteroid Interceptor
Saturday, March 14, 1998; 1:27 p.m. EST

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- President Clinton is being urged to do more to study asteroids.

Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Calif., wants the president to reverse his veto of $25 million for an asteroid interceptor.

Rohrabacher says the program would have involved firing tiny intercepts into asteroids to provide scientists with information and test new technologies.

Rohrabacher says the project would have been a low-cost ``proof of concept'' for any future attempt to protect earth from an asteroid collision.

Scientists this week first estimated a mile-long asteroid might come within 30,000 miles of Earth in 30 years. They later amended their calculations to say it would only come within 600,000 miles of Earth.

© Copyright 1998 The Associated Press

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:46
crazytimes (Lurking Kitcoites coming out of the closet.....) ID#342376:
Mozel, That speaks volumes to your contributions! Perhaps this is also a sign of the Gold Bull getting ready to stand up!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:44
JTF (Signing off!) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
aurator: My Britannica says that the Mongol dynasty seized the throne of China and subdued Korea in the 13th century. When Khublai Khan came nearly into contact with Japan during this period, he sent the Mongols to Japan in 1274, where they were repulsed at Hakozaki on the island of Kyushu. Khublai's subsequent envoys to Japan were all executed, so he sent a large expedition to Japan, leading to the unification of Japan, when apparently even the buddist Japanese joined in. Khublai's armada was destroyed by a great typhoon, ending the Mongol peril to Japan.

This is the only armada I could find -- sorry -- I could not find the name of the armada.

So -- the Japanese understandably needed a strong military with giant China so close by. Fortunately for them, the sea barrier was a great help to them as well.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:41
Speed (Circuit breakers) ID#286199:
Copyright © 1998 Speed/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
JTF: Just finished a pillow fight/bond nintendo64 slug fest with my 13 year old son. My head hurts, my eyes are strained and I've been murdered about a dozen times.

The arrival of new trading curbs at the precise time Japan institutes more of their Big Bang makes for some interesting speculation. I think that some really big swings in the market will happen. 10% of 8600 is a scary swing. I'd like some of the options traders to comment on how this will affect stops and strategy etc.

It looks like Japan will endure some pain this year, in order to emerge stronger for the long run. Any thoughts on how the Big Bang will affect the Yen carry trade?

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:35
Nick@C (Gold) ID#393224:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sorry to intrude amongst all the cattle and Japanese history here BUT:

My gold share charts are optimistically predicting an imminent up-move in gold prices. That doesn't mean they are correct, but SOMEBODY either knows something or is an incurable optimist. Is it not true that major gold mining company shares 'predict' moves in the metal itself? There has been a slight little upturn in most major Aussie gold shares recently. If you look at Bill Buckler's gold/currency charts, you will see that gold has turned the corner in all but the US$ chart. Do you have to get kicked in the head by a mule before you look up BBL.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:34
Ted (Redneck) ID#330175:
Welcome to the club~~~~~~

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:33
JTF (sharefin, are you out there?) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
sharefin: Please keep us posted on any market 'lock step' behavior. I still have my Dec 98 Sp-500 puts, though they aren't worth very much at the moment -- about 1/4 of what they were when I bought them. I have a little 'funny money' saved up for another try. By the way, I finally got smart and bought some Dec 98 puts on the Mexican index. I think that will be much more likely to fall before the sp-500.

My intuitive feeling is that the US markets will not crash this summer, and may not even in the fall -- the baby boomers still have the helm. However, if other markets start to fall again around the world, like they did in SEAsia last year, the US markets will eventually be affected, although they will probably last -- ie repeat of the 20's. I think a 'flight to safety' from other parts of the world will prop up the US markets, when the baby boomers falter.

I would guess that war in Korea or in the Middle east, or a complete Japanese collapse ( China devaluation? ) , or a Clinton fiasco would be the only wild cards in this prediction.

I think that Oldman is right that BC's fortunes and the market fortunes are connected, and one will not go without the other. The only problem is -- which one will be first.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:31
crossbow (Mozel, quality of discussion at Kitco) ID#342397:
I've not posted to this site before, or to any other site for that matter. But after lurking here for the better part of a year I feeled compelled to do so now. I find the discussions here to be vigorous, informative and often times humourous.

It has been Mozel's posts among a number of others ( you know who you are ) that I have found the the most elegant and insightful. I join in the call for his return.


Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:30
aurator (I gorfet) ID#255284:
The repulsion of the Mongols was mainly because most of the fleet was sunk by a freak storm. I am kicking myself for forgetting the name, it will come to me. It fits with the Japanese belief that Japan is Protected by the gods of the Sea and wind. As long as the gods are kept propitiated, all will be well.

It happened a second time in the 16Century too, an invading fleet was sunk in a storm. I have heard that most Japanese think invasion of Japan is impossible. I have also read that this was given as a justification for Hiroshima. A land battle would prove very bloody.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:30
a.j. (BILL2J Re: The murder rate in U.S. as compared to Canada.) ID#257136:
Copyright © 1998 a.j./Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Give the U.S. a break. A study was done in the past couple years that compared the murder and violence rate in countries of origin with the rates of U.S.citizens descended from those who emigrated from other places.
The murder rate amongst persons of German descent was almost identical with that of German citizens. Britain, France, various african nations, the same. Mexico and other central and south american notions -the same as in the mother countries.
The point I'm making is that it is the Basic culture as taught in the homes, rather than the fact of citizenship in the U.S. which was the determinant.
In deference to those among Kitcoites who would outlaw firearms for private citizens, I give you the african nations of rwanda and burundi for starters.
The news articles I have read have all spoken of the atrocities commited by clubs and machetes. As soon outlaw them and Lorena's paring knife! ( :+^} ) [
'Nuf Sed!!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:29
quion97 (Toronto RESOURCE & ENERGY INVESTMENT CONFERENCE APRIL 19 & 20) ID#23398:
gOLD & SILVER BUGS FOR YOUR INFO A CHANCE TO HEAR AND SEE THE REAL EXPERTS ( tHAT WHAT THEY CALL THEMSELVES ANYWAY UP TO U TO DECIDE 0 )
Participants Dines Casey Carter Coffin Day SARNOFF FAGAN THE GOLD PANEL REHMER MCaVITY MCaLLISRTER WHEELER jUST RECEIVED INFO TODAY.I do not know if Bart considers this advertising if so he can cut of the following info.EMAIL www.cambridgeconferences.com for more info.
Could be interesting If many plan to attend maybe we could arrange a get together.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:20
JTF (You are correct!) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
aurator: If I sounded as if I were saying that the Japanese and Chinese cutlures were the same, I stand corrected! From my later post, you will see that the overlap was probably around 400 AD, give or take a few centuries. From then on, though the written language was the same, I would agree with you that little else was. The Japanese repulsion of the Mongols in 1300 AD, which the Koreans and Chinese failed to do, certainly had much to do with Japan having a separate culture.
Tonight we seen to be talking about Japanese history, so I hope what I have posted will prove to be accurate. I only scanned my ancient Encylopedia Britannica. My guess is that if there are any Japanese lurkers, or Japanese historians, this is the night that we fellow Kitcoites will draw them out!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:16
Ted (Nick @C) ID#330175:
I love them big Fosters....

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:15
JP (Deflation Is Spreading Around The Globe) ID#253153:
The Gold Bull market has begun. Gold stocks have started a slow upward trend which will accelerate as we move forward. I'm expecting a tremendous run in Gold stocks as money seeks safety and income.Now is the time to buy them brother. Don;t wait, they are cheap and under valued now.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:12
JTF (Japanese History - briefly) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
sam: Doing a little reading on Japan. Japan was occupied by homo sapiens, 'modern' human inhabitants since 30,000 BC. Although the Chinese culture goes back to 4000 BC or earlier, and the the Chinese written language to 2800 BC, oddly my history book has nothing about Japan in the BC period. From AD 167 - 467, the Japanese were influenced strongly by trade with the Chinese. Around 400 AD, the Chinese language was adopted. From AD 400 to 550, relations were quite close with Korea. Much of Japanese history from early AD was under the rule of Japanese Emporers. Culture flourished under several of these Emporers, especially among those who were connected with the Emporers or their families. In 1192 the Shogun military dictators overthrew the last Fujiwara emporer and ruled the country until 1868 -- nearly 700 years. This period was exemplified by strict military rule -- probably what we Americans would equate with martial law. The military strength of the Shoguns was such that they repelled the Mongols in the 13th century when China and Korea were overrun. Briefly, it appears to my rather naive reading, that this 700 year period contributed greatly to the current uniformity and uniquenss of the Japanese culture. This may have been due in part to a chronic threat of invasion by China -- and hence a considerable degree of isolation for many years. I doubt much trade came from anywhere except the Coast of SEAsia, Korea or China. This degree of isolation was a feature that China did not have -- hence the cultural diversity of China versus the more culturally uniform Japan.

Imagine what the USA would be like after 700 years of strict military rule, with few freedoms. We forget how lucky we are to have what our forefathers have given us. Part of that is what allows us to do what we are doing tonight.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:07
Nick@C (G'day Ted/Finny/Barbariauracious) ID#393224:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Ted--Ten mile walks should keep you fit for house building, mate. Thirsty work and you'll have to replenish yer bodily fluids. Those big cans of Fosters will save you climbing down every 15 minutes.

Finny--Not to put you on the spot, mate, but what is your estimation of when the Dow bull will trip and start tumbling. Sold all my puts long ago,but some, like ANZ's are starting to look very interesting again. My study of crashes warns me that they occur when LEAST expected. I'm trying to figure out when the 'least best' time for a market drop would be.

Barbariauracious--switched from sheep to cattle, have you mate? I'm going to have to get out my copy of Shogun to keep up with this discussion. Cheers.N.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 20:02
Bill2j (Japanese cultural differences) ID#259400:
Copyright © 1998 Bill2j/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Have been reading with some interest various comments on Japanese cultural differences vis a vis western culture. Bear in mind several things. Japan is inhabited by a homeogenuous population that has been ruled by autocratic rulers for thousands of years. Throw in the fact they live in very close quarters because of the geography of the nation and it is not amazing they would come up with a culture that forces them to live together in harmony and seek concensus. Now let's look at Americans. American was settled by all the misfits and malcontent of the old world. If you couldn't get along in the old country you emigrated to america. Australia is even worse ( or better depending on your point of view ) . They started out as a penal colony. If you were really a bad ass in England they shipped you off to Australia. In any event the majority of the misfits that just couldn't make it in the old country came to america. Throw in the fact we had vast land areas and if you got in trouble with the locals all you had to do was move west and it is no wonder we have a culture gap vis a vis the Japanese. Shoot, look at the culture gap between here and Canada. After the colonial wars ( ok, revolution ) all the law abiding citizens ( those loyal to the king ) were force to emigrate to Canada or South America. 200 years down the road we have a murder rate hugely greater than that of Canada. All the mellow dudes were forced to leave the county leaving only the wild ones in the US. The long and he short of it is this. Yes, we have different cultures based upon different experiences and different heridity no, by golly we don't understand one another.
Crazy Bill


Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 19:50
larryn__A (gold funds) ID#32078:
In the last two weeks another gold fund was bought out and shut down. That makes four since October. Investors didn't lose, but the fund managers decided there was something better to do with their time than manage a sector suffering steady redemption of shares.

I consider that a good indication that the bottom is near.

For the best web site on gold funds, check http://www.eaglewing.com


Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 19:49
sam (aurator) ID#288140:
Cool! I have to run an errand soon, but I will look for the story when I come back.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 19:46
aurator () ID#255284:
Ted
G'day mate.
Plse close your ears,

I'm getting ready to tell a story of butchery and bovine bloodshed to sam in a little while....

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 19:42
Ted (Aurator) ID#330175:
hi

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 19:38
sam (aurator) ID#286279:
You guys are like encyclopaedias ( a compliment. ) I look forward to the Teriyaki story. Please post it someday when you know that I am logged on. Thanks!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 19:27
Donald__A (An opinion on the possibility of future gold confiscation) ID#26793:
http://www.certifiedcoins.com/articles.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 19:22
sig__A (Redneck) ID#210253:
This was my gateway to Kitco November 1996: http://goldsheet.simplenet.com/ a great resource.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 19:20
sharefin (Good reading - esp second article) ID#284255:
-
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980314/market/markets2.html
Artificial boom - Fears of systemic failure drive the boom in global liquidity.
Sheer weight of money still driving US market

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980314/perspective/perspective1.html
Theory lacking - Theorists are struggling to identify signs of a potential market collapse.
How to run the world - The next step for policy makers is to work out how to prevent another massive breakdown of regional financial markets.



Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 19:18
aurophile (breakers) ID#256326:
JTF: Exchange-listed derivatives did fine in 1987, although the FED had to browbeat some lenders to extend credit to Continental Illinois and a few other clearing house members. OTC derivatives are the problem, since they are not regulated and have been relatively unknown. Both FASB and the FED/CFTC are requiring increased reporting/surveillance, but outside the US it's still pretty much the wild west. ( or wild east. ) //bye all. bbl.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 19:17
aurator () ID#255284:
sam
you are talking about the time from the murder of Dutch Christians in the 1660s ( never was much on dates ) until the forced re-opening of Trade in the early 1800's the Meiji Restoration.

Until then, for example, no Japanese would eat meat. There is an interesting story about the origin of Teriyaki and Capt Perry that I'll dredge up one day.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 19:14
aurator () ID#255284:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
JTF
Allow me, please, to correct you. ALmost the only thing ( and it is almost irrelevant ) that Japanese & Chinese cultures share is the same origin of writing. All other constructs, institutions & artifacts of culture are unique. True, Japanese Buddhism arrived via China, but its interpretation in Japan is indigenous. Confuscianism and Shintoism are anathema to each other.

One thing that always astonishes me about the Japanese I meet, and I do meet a lot, is a kind of terror I see in their eyes when asked about certain aspects of Japanese History.

Ask a Japanese about Nanking, the episode is not related in any school history books ( History curriculum is rigidly controlled by the state ) and s/he will stare in disbelief as one relates the facts. Disbelief is actually not only because of ignorance of the historical event, but also that the subject is raised at all. We ( well, I ) appear as barbarians, and ( I ) we ought not forget it.

Do you know that one of the greatest insults you can pay a Japanese is to speak perfect Japanese?




Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 19:12
JTF (Circuit breakers) ID#57232:
speed: It is interesting that the Traders are more concerned about the circuit breakers than anyone else. Makes one wonder if we have really progressed since 1987 -- perhaps the risks to the market and derivatives trading really have not changed, despite the claims to the contrary.

My intuitive guess is that activation of the circuit breakers will continue to make mincemeat of the derivatives trades.

Is that what happened in Oct 97? Were the derivatives trades messed up?

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 19:02
Speed (NYSE Circuit Breakers will change April 1) ID#286199:
-
Dow Jones Newswires -- March 11, 1998
Stock Futures Report: Traders Debate New Circuit Breakers

Dow Jones Newswires

Traders called for more latitude, which the new breakers are intended to provide. The new circuit breakers at the New York Stock Exchange are set to halt stock trading when the Dow Jones Industrial Average falls 10%, 20% and 30%. The Big Board plans to revise its circuit breaker settings quarterly henceforth, first of January, April, July and October.

The CME breakers will halt trading when the price of Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index futures falls 10% and 20%. A decline of 20% in one day is the CME's maximum daily limit. The Chicago Board of Trade is
preparing its own set of circuit breakers for its Dow Jones Industrial Average futures. They will match the NYSE's trading halts, said an exchange spokesman. The CBOT's maximum daily price decline is 30%.

An investor who bought one S&P 500 futures and held it through a 10% market decline would lose about $27,000. If the contract declines 20%, the losses mount to $54,000. Actual losses for mutual fund
managers, who often buy hundreds or thousands of contracts, could be far greater, of course.

Hirschback points out that futures contracts require low collateral. If the stock index futures market fell sharply and was forced to close early because all the price limits were hit, you could have a default, he
worried.

That's why traders insist that the markets remain open.

I think that you always like to have the markets open in order ... for investors to get out and get in. When you don't have that opportunity, it really is a hindrance toward liquidity, said Jeffery Feeney,
institutional futures analyst with Salomon Smith Barney Inc.

Some others are more open to circuit breakers. To have the market in a free fall is not in everyone's interest, said Wailey Chin, an analyst with Prudential Securities Inc. He believes the new circuit
breakers may be wide enough to let the stock market naturally correct from a selloff.
Retail traders haven't squawked about the circuit breakers because they don't don't buy big quantities of contracts and don't stand to lose anywhere near the amounts mutual fund managers would.

-Clifton Linton; 312-750-4141

By Clifton Linton

CHICAGO ( Dow Jones ) --Questions are flying as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade ready the new stock market circuit breakers slated to take effect April 1.

Circuit breakers aren't needed, some futures traders contend. Trading halts, they say, reduce market liquidity and increase uncertainty, just the opposite of what circuit breakers are meant to do. The
rationale for having them is to slow a market selloff and give investors time to reassess their strategies.

Ira Hirschback, a portfolio manager and trader with Loews Corp., said his greatest fear is that a cataclysmic event occurs overnight. It causes stock prices to open sharply lower the next day, hit all the
price limits and force an immediate market shutdown.

I tend to be a free market thinker. I don't like things that close the exchanges, said Hirschback. I don't mind a break in the action, but I would mind if the break could actually cause the market not to open the
next day if it went down the limit.

His concern is that a market shutdown wouldn't allow investors to get out of losing positions.

The stock market selloff last October prompted stock exchanges and futures exchanges to revamp the circuit breakers they had created after the October 1987 stock market crash and had revised earlier last
year. In last year's selloff, the breakers shut down trading when the market fell 554.26 points, even though it was a loss of less than 8%.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 19:01
sam (JTF) ID#286279:
Don't know what I am talking about again- I have heard that Japan was isolated, sealed off from the rest of the world for a long time. How long, when? I don't know, but it may be a clue to why there are cultural differences.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:56
Junior (Indonesia - Currency - Gold & Professor Steve Hanke) ID#248180:
Peter Hartcher has written a most interesting article in The Australian Financial Reveiw weekend 14-15 March 1998 edition.
Prof. S. Hanke is the advisor and chief architect of the Indonesia proposed currency board. It is reported that Prof S. Hanke supports a Gold Standard Currencies!
Can Posters out there please provide more information about Prof. Hanke, his views, track record and his supporters and followers?

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:54
Donald__A (Yvan Auger XAU analysis) ID#26793:
http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/Xweekly.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:50
Donald__A (Study on derivatives and the stability of the financial system) ID#26793:
http://finance.wat.ch/GenevaPapers/paper2.htm

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:50
JTF (Re: Japan) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
sam, aurator: I appreciate both of your comments. There is clearly a cultural barrier - I concede that -- more so than between the Chinese and the Americans - for some reason.

However, I do know that ( nearly ) free communication is possible, because in the intellectual environment of the University I have seen it happen. And yet -- I cede to both of you that independence of thought without conferring with others is more a Western thing than it is Oriental, and even more so than I think Japanese. For example, I think the Japanese are fascinated with the independent western 'John Wayne' type of personality because it is so foreign to their own. Most of my exposure to Orientals is with those who have been westernized, since I have not traveled to Japan.

I find it intriguing that the Japanese culture, which acquired so much from the Chinese culture ( like the written language ) , is harder for us westerners to understand, than it is for us to understand the Chinese.

It will be interesting to see what happens on April 1 -- I don't have a clue what this 'big bang' thing will do -- but I will guess on one thing -- the basic cultural thing of not doing anything without conferring with others will make the charges fairly slow by our standards.

I am all ears about what anyone thinks of the effect of the 'big bang'.


Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:49
Speed (NYSE Circuit Breakers) ID#286199:
Copyright © 1998 Speed/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Here are the proposed changes from the WSJ. These have not been approved and placed in service yet.

Specifically, under the current proposal:

A 10% drop would halt trading for one hour if it occurred before 2 p.m., and for 30 minutes if it occurred between 2 and 2:30, but would not halt
trading at all after 2:30. A 20% drop occurring before 1 p.m. would halt
trading for two hours, and between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m. for one hour, and close the market for the day after 2 p.m. A 30% drop would close the market for the day no matter when it occurred.

The important issue is that this be coordinated among the markets and with the regulators, Mr. Grasso said. I don't think we serve investors well if we end up at an impasse, during which we could suffer another event similar to October 1997.

SEC spokesman Chris Ullman said, We are very encouraged by the proposal as it appears to meet many of the concerns expressed by Chairman Levitt.

Mr. Grasso said that once the new circuit breakers are in place, the Big Board will consider widening its collars that currently limit certain program trading when the Dow Jones Industrial Average rises or falls
50 points.

While market participants readily agreed to 10% and 20% trigger points as early as December, the Big Board's own constituencies were split on the seemingly arcane issue of how to close the market. Individual investors and floor specialists generally favored closing the market after a 20% drop, but many professional traders preferred to reopen.

Many exchange officials say it might be almost impossible to reopen after a 20% decline, let alone 30%, given how disorderly trading would likely be after such a cataclysmic event.

It's reasonable to expect that the higher the threshold, the more difficult a resumption of trading will be, Mr. Grasso said. We're going to have a pretty big challenge with 20% or in some cases even 10%. Eight hundred points has never been hit in the history of our markets.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:47
aurophile (Aurator) ID#256326:
I have some fibo/carolan/lucas ties to March 23 as well as a private system low. This is for US stocks. For gold the downward pressure would seem to be off as of last week, and I have nada until early April. I have not done my gold work assiduously of late.///gotta go rest up for Saturday night festivities. Cheers!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:42
Junior (@ Snowball 17:28 ) ID#248180:
Snowball: please stand corrected regarding your sign off tag little guy your sentiments and summations about the quality and worth of all posters on this site places you among the best of persons. Your humility is noted. I second and support your thoughts. Mozel is sorely missed.

MOZEL, if you are lurking - thanks and God Bless you. After your many quality posts I was about to start a campaign - MOZEL for President of the USA!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:42
The Hermit (@Snowball, JTF, tolerant1, mozel) ID#369247:
Copyright © 1998 The Hermit/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Snowball, I second your post of 17:28. Thank you. GOLD IS GOOD and the posters here are the greatest.

JTF, I also include a big THANK YOU to you sir. You have a great calming effect here - you are always a gentleman! Your insights are greatly appreciated. I have re-read many of your posts.

tolerant1 ( your post of 17:40 ) , don't give up on mozel. I truly enjoy the exchanges between you and mozel. Thank you for sharing your knowledge with us.

mozel, your posts are appreciated. I look forward to more. Thank you.


The Hermit

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:41
Speed (crazytimes) ID#286199:
Here is a link to a good explanation of trading curbs.

http://stocks.miningco.com/library/weekly/aa102097.htm

These curbs haven't been changed, though some pretty radical changes have been proposed. The proposed changes are to replace the point curbs with percentages. For instance, instead of stopping trading at 350 points, 30% would be used. I am still looking for the latest word on this. AS of right now, the current curbs are firmly in place.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:32
aurator () ID#255284:
Frustrated

We'll make a man outa you yet. ;- )


( isure's 18:26, quotes my fave pome by Rudi )

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:26
Isure (Don't invest unless YOU are ready for anythingIf) ID#368244:
Copyright © 1998 Isure/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

If

by Rudyard Kipling

If you can keep your head when all about you

Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,

If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,

But make allowance for their doubting too;

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,

Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,

Or being hated, don't give way to hating,

And yet don't look to good, or talk to wise:

If you can dream-and not make dreams your master;

If you can think-and not make thoughts your aim,

If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster

And treat those two imposters just the same;

If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken

Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,

Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,

And stoop and build'em up again with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings;

And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,

And lose, and start again at your beginnings

And never breathe a word about your loss;

If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew

To serve your turn long after they are gone

And so hold on when there is nothing in you

Except the Will which says to them: Hold on!

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,

Or walk with Kings-nor lose the common touch,

If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,

If all men count with you, but none to much;

If you can fill the unforgiving minute

With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,

Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,

And which is more-you'll be a Man, my son!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:25
Speed (Japan's Financial Big Bang) ID#286199:
http://www.infoweb.ne.jp/dkb/infoecon/9706/9706-3e.html

Good explanation of effects of deregulation

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:24
crazytimes (Trading Curbs terminated April 1? Titanic on course? To Mozel-) ID#342376:
Copyright © 1998 crazytimes/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I just read a post on another forum that all trading curbs are to be terminated on April 1. Is that true? If it is then we have Japan's deregulation or Big Bang and trading curbs being lifted on April Fools day. From what I've read trading curbs do more harm than good, but the timing of this, if true, is very interesting. The perception of the lifting of these curbs would be taken as more instability and no nets to break the fall. I've also been reading about the interesting connection between the #1 movie the Titanic and our current economic situation. The fact that we have hit an iceberg but most don't realise it. Didn't the Titanic sink on April 12th? Also to Mozel--I hope that you return. Your posts were some of the most intelligent I've seen on here, and that's saying alot. I've new to posting ( but have lurked here for some time ) and have made some off-topic posts, although only from other leads. Perhaps I should keep my fingers quiet in this excellent forum. I do apologize.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:23
aurophile (Cyclist) ID#256326:
Thanks for the warnng. I'm selling everything on Monday and emigrating to Mungo. Well, maybe I had better wait for your reasons.;- )

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:12
sig__A (Redneck) ID#113316:

Welcome to Kitcoville! Sometimes it resembles a Steven King novel around these parts.

Go Team Gold!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:08
POLARBEAR (awesome Y2K article.) ID#183109:
Copyright © 1998 POLARBEAR/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Everything you ever wanted to know and more about the Y2K mess:

Part – I: http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/heuskin030798.html>http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/heuskin030798.html

Part – II: http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/heuskin031498.html>http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/heuskin031498.html

( minus the EN of course in GoldEN-eagle )



An Iceberg Called Y2K



The financial world is on a collision course – and the date of impact is Midnight December 31, 1999. When the hammer strikes the 12th gong, the financial world may be brought to its knees from Boston to Berne to Bahrain to Baghdad to Bangkok to Beijing. In an instant financial time will hit a time-warp – and be instantly transported back 100 YEARS to One Minute Past New Years Eve, 1900!



Computer chips worldwide will be confusing the start of the New Year 2000 with 1900… the subsequent information debacle could be devastating to all aspects of our lives. With every day that passes in the Year 2000 countdown, this drama will unfold to reveal more and more evidence; evidence that will strike fear in the hearts of every single one of us. Right now, public awareness is almost nil - and the traditional media in its ignorance is treating the emerging Y2K peril in an almost cavalier fashion. Nevertheless, the Year 2000 iceberg is dead ahead and there is no doubt there will be a destructive and disorganizing impact.



Many computer literate people have a rather blasé attitude about the looming information disaster. But like the proverbial ostrich who stupidly seeks safety by burying only his head in the sand, their “butts” will be totally exposed to the danger which may disrupt their lives for the a generation to come.



If you personally consider the imminent peril is nothing to get all upset about, then I defy you to explain why Citibank – the bank whose slogan is “Your key to banking convenience – around the corner, around the world” – has publicly announced it has ALREADY set aside $600 MILLION to try to resolve the problem BEFORE THE FATAL DAY! Think of it, one bank is going to spend $600,000,000.00 in anticipation of this perplexing dilemma. Can you possibly imagine how much the U.S. government will need to spend? All the other governments in the world? All the other banks in the world? All the large corporations in the world? If you can… then you have just sighted the “TIP OF THE LOOMING ICEBERG CALLED Y2K.”



Analyst Todd J. Heuskin has researched the Y2K dilemma. His comprehensive and insightful treatise will at once startle you… and hopefully help prepare you for the coming information debacle – which has potential to adversely influence all aspects of our material lives. Mr. Heuskin graciously and generously shares his insightful thoughts with us. His report, “An Iceberg Called Y2K” may be seen at the following website ( it’s FREE ) :



Part – I: http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/heuskin030798.html

Part – II: http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/heuskin031498.html




Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:06
Cyclist (comment) ID#339274:
Cycles are in tune for a deflationary washout of all stocks.
Within the year to spill over into next year.April is seasonally
a low number for gold to top out coming August.All time low
will be February '98 for gold stocks with multiples of 5.
We living in interesting times.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 18:03
aurophile (re-flation) ID#256326:
Copyright © 1998 aurophile/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Donald: There is no reason to suspect that the re-inflation would be severe for many years, say about 2020 or so. Most people will still be expecting prices to fall for about ten years, so they won't be rushing out to buy stuff for quite a while. Stocks will still go up as in the 1950's and 1960's. The economy will remain strong although be subject to interest rate jitters. My own feeling is that goverment is more likely to go out of business than that capitalism does. Oh sure, Chelsea will officially be president, but people won't pay much attention except during inauguration festivities every four years.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:56
BUFFORD (golden cheeshead (kilometer 88 $5 million)) ID#253246:
gc; that $5 million write down on kilometer 88 went to pay for
Robert Freidland and his sweatina's in jamaica.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:51
jims (To Allen (USA)) ID#252391:
Personnaly, I think your comments on Japan are right on the money. Their mass pyscholgy that got them into WW2 and was so successful in their economic rise in the '80s will be their undoing, now. Their government and business system is geared to screw the average citizen. I think the April 1st deregualtion or what ever its called may prove to be quite a shock to their system. I think the biggest concern the markets should have now is an implosion of Japan - seems it has already begun. I am affraid this is bearish for gold and silver.

Your comments were great.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:49
Donald__A (@Aurophile) ID#26793:
Copyright © 1998 Donald__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If you are right, and inflation is to be the immediate future, then capatilism is doomed and we will enter a central planned economy. We all know where that gets you.

Without savings there is no source of capital. Who will save, anywhere in this world, in the environment we have had since 1933? Only a fool. Savings are eaten by inflation; a dollar is no different from a rupiah. The backing is identical. After the market break the country will know they are flat broke. How will you deliver the newly printed money to the needy? There is no way to do it. We must take the hit. We must suffer the depression. We must restore the incentive to save in total safety. Gold exchangeability is the only way to do that that I know of.

This government, or more likely a new government, will only reach that conclusion after the damage has been done and all the old socialistic cures have been discarded as having been proved unworkable. A one-world centrally planned economy is a ticket straight to Dark Ages II.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:48
sam (aurator@17:20) ID#286279:
That's it! I'm not exactly sure what I mean or how to say it, then you zero in and nail it completely dead on.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:48
robnoel__A (forgot to add its a 3 hour show Mon-Fri 7 to 10 MST) ID#411112:

numerious AM stations,shortwave,satellite,and is currently on the internet http://www.amerifree.com

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:44
Fred (To: Redneck) ID#341234:
I think you picked a good time to get into the gold market. I started a little too early ( 6 months ago ) , but I am just glad to be in. I am up to about 12% gold ( mostly mutual fund and some coins ) . I plan to be 15% by the end of the year. With SE Asia, questionable corporate earnings, Y2K, high PE ratios, record optimism, and the 'can't loose' attitude toward stocks, I think stocks will be dangerous for the next 2 years. I have been slowly selling down my stock mutual funds and increasing my cash ( money market ) .

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:40
tolerant1 (mozel - hmmmmmmm - mozel - ) ID#31868:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Well I've got to run to keep from hiding, and I am bound to keep on riding and I've got one more silver dollar, but I'm not going to let them catch me Lord, not going to let them catch me Lord, not catch the Midnight Rider, Oh, I don't own the clothes I'm wearing and the road goes on forever.

And I've got one more silver dollar, but I'm not going to let them catch me Lord, not going to let them catch the SILVER RIDER.

Allman Brothers - circa - forever -


Mozel you must speak, or perhaps you are one of those soverign indiviuals that I read so much about. James Dale Davidson, he who gives up when presented with insurmountable odds, Argentina SUCKS and so does their method of govenrment, at least Rees-Mogg knows his place as defined by his own abilities to make a place within that which is the spiderweb of deceit, lies, and fitting in.

Ha, Mozel, be more than conversation, any jackass can write a novel or a mozel, HA,

Stand as you speak, for America, or never place your finger tips on the keyboard again.

America will not stand nor sit for a whiner. Ever.

Mozel - I do grow weary of watching for the lantern far in the field.

Without certain lanterns, there are many of us who would become dimwits.

Let the cannon fire, if he does not join us, so be it...



Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:35
Donald__A (Deflation is easy to fix (Not my opinion, posted for balance only) ID#26793:
http://pathfinder.com/@@gLuEtAUASy7NVZPu/fortune/1998/980202/fir2.html>http://pathfinder.com/@@gLuEtAUASy7NVZPu/fortune/1998/980202/fir2.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:34
robnoel__A (What would you guys think of an internet radio program interacting with this forum,so long as Bart ) ID#411112:

is cool with it,like many the info shared here is more the GDP get from the main stream,if you think it's a good idea it could happen as soon as next week.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:33
jims (A look at the charts) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Checked out the weekly Silver and Gold charts this morning. . Trying to forget my emotional and financial attachment to rising prices, I notice that both charts look like they will break, here, and move lower in the next two months. Silver looks like it is targeted for $5.50 or 5.40. Gold looks like a test of the $285 region is in the offing. Now, of course, this bodes poorly for XAU. Seems there might be some possiblity of a bounce on Monday if stocks wekaen on the Clinton mess. All stocks need is an excuse for a correction - a loss in confidence may be just the trigger. However, I doubt gold will get over 305 or silver past 66.50.
The charts just look like they want to go down in my opinion. Heck, silver hasn't been able to rally two days in a row for almost two weeks. Correction of an over bought situation, yes, but at some point a bull market has to go up.

Longer temr I'm more bullish, but I feel the downside will be tested once again. The turn will come when the EU announces a change in their central bank attitude toward CB sales and that may not be too very far off.

Till then the trend is down.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:31
RETIRED SOLDIER (@ MIRO) ID#347235:
I stand corrected had a brain faht as they say back east

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:29
aurophile (Donald) ID#256326:
Copyright © 1998 aurophile/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I am a little younger than you but have experienced the same phases you describe. I am also a believer in cycles as you would seem to be by that last post. My cycles are a little shorter than yours appear to be as I believe the disinflationary phase of the most recent cycle ( less severe than the previous one from 1920-1946/49 ) is very close to its end ( 1974-now ) while you think it's just getting started. This is not to criticize or put down, merely to state what I see and partly why. ( I measure the disinflationary part from the momentum peak of the inflationary phase at the start of the high plateau through the price bottom retest. ) Admittedly I was a little over eager and jumped the gun in 1996, but long cycles are hard to pinpoint exactly to the year, let alone the month. I do belive that the serial devaluations and huge increases in money supply, along with the nearly universal belief that deflation is coming ( sentimentometer ) are harbingers of the return of mild inflation before too long. This will cause the frequency of bear moves in stocks to increase, but will not lead to a crash or long, devastating bear market until interest rates get up towards 9% again. All this IMVHO.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:28
Snowball (@ Donald A, Mozel, and all ) ID#234218:
Copyright © 1998 Snowball/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I know it has been said here before, but I just want to add my $.02 worth. I sincerely want to thank you for all the news posts, URLs and insights you give us. They have gone a long way in my education and understanding of money, markets and world events. You seem to have a knack for posting more relevant data in 1 hour than I can find in 1 month. You are truly one of the MAJOR players that make this forum a most valuable source of knowledge and information. My deepest gratitude and thanks.

Mozel: I am far from an expert and often did not fully comprehend all of your postings and wisdom. Your views were also ones that I respect. I review many of the postings that I have saved for reference and study. I find that many of them are yours. I sincerely hope that one day you will continue your postings for the benefit of all.

I also wish to extend my thanks and appreciation to EVERYONE who posts on this forum. You each have your own unique contributions and insights. I wish I had the analytical minds and keen understand of the financial markets that most of you do. It is truly fascinating to watch. You all have helped me to understand and identify the reasons why I began investing in gold. I just knew it was a good idea and the time to do it. I didn't really know or understand ALL the reasons. Still don't, but I'm still learning thanks to all of you. I have learned that investing in gold is like trying to give a cat an enema. Just when you think you've got everything covered and been very careful, all HELL breaks loose. You've just got to be very patient and not lose sight of what you're tryin' ta do!

Thank you all,
one of the little guys

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:23
Donald__A (Overinvestment is the basic engine of deflation) ID#26793:
http://www.pathfinder.com/money/moneydaily/1997/971118pm.moneyonline.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:20
aurator (Truth is what you want to hear. Truth is inoffensive. Truth may be inconsistant. ) ID#255284:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
JTF
Ever seen a Japanese keyboard? I do not recall off-hand how many keys one has, nor how many keycombinations are necessary for the simplest characters. There is anothe difficulty with expecting communication here from Japanese. Only an anomic Japanese will be brave enough to express a view that does not have the backing of a great consensus. There are shades of Truth in expression in Japanese that we find exasperating. You may be told the Truth and find out that what you have been told is what the speaker thought you wanted to hear. It is still Truth and honest to Japanese.

Judging by some of the ethnocentric comments here about the Korean gold donations, I doubt many have thought that much of what we consider true and logical and therefore universal are as strange to a Japanese as the ritual suicide, Happuku ( not hari kari ) is to us.


Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:18
Allen(USA) (If deflation is strictly a monetary phenomina) ID#255190:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
.. then why is Japan, which has basicly been GIVING money away over the past three or four years, suddenly caught in a death trap? Part of the problem is the complexity of competing sovereignties, currencies, policies, economies and relationships of debt money to printed money, etc. This whole mess is just so blasted complex and self feeding that I really don't think ANYONE knows how this system will behave if things continue as they have so far.

Inflation/deflation, man alive, I can hardly believe that these professional money people would ever come out and say We haven't got a clue .., you know? Its a sham. The worst part of it, to my thinking, is the BS that is spewed as 'We know what is going on and everything is under control.'.

If people lose confidence in the ability of this system to operate in their favor, then you can print whatever money you want, you can create credit money and PAY people to use it and it will all be for NOT. Purely and simply this: the average, everyday working people in this world either make or break this sytem by the opinion they hold of it. Now THAT is a scarey thought!

The Japanese people are getting CRUSHED by the putrid corruption they have so neglected in their leadership. It has gotten so bad that the highest levels of their government, which are supposed to be the saviours of their system, are completely stripped of any shred of respectability or honor. The only thing I can see happening there is a public pull out of funds from the banks and Postal Savings system as people try to protect themselves from the totally criminal mismanagement and fraud that has gone under the title of 'government'. April 1st or later as the 'BIG BANG' may truly become an economic and financial explosion which totally devistates them.

If the BOJ tries to INCREASE their interest rates they will completely destroy what is left of their internal economy and trade position. The Yen will strengthen and this will shut down their exports to the rest of Asia ( what remains of them ) . They can not lower their interest rates because they have NOWHERE TO LOWER THEM TO ( they are at 1.5% now ) . If they devalue their currency then this will re-ignite the currency war in Asia and drive the other currencies down altogether. They are toast, people. They have NO options. Anthing they do is jumping from the pan into the fire.

Public works spending programs as well as the idea of running a governmental deficit are an absolute joke there. I must ask all of you to think about the implication here. When was the last time a massive public works program was initiated in the USA? It was in the Depression. This SPIN that they are in control is just absolute BS of the highest grade and purity!!!

Rubin continues to increase the terror of his warnings and now says that without the US$19 Bln we are in a nightmare scenario. But everything is OK, not to worry! Our government says 'Just create and spend money'. Typical. The Asians are walking the knife's edge with ever bloodier feet. And they will eventually be sliced into pieces by the reality that we also will not escape.

I have now gotten this out of my system for at least 10 minutes and will shut up.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:11
Donald__A (Deflation, inflation, disinflation, deflation, inflation in that order of my lifetime.) ID#26793:
I was born in 1934 and that is my life experience, past and future. I think we are in the disinflationary period now. That is a period of steadily declining inflation since April, 1980. I expect that we will begin outright and sustained deflation only when the U.S. stock market breaks. Deflation will last at least until the next presidential election following the market break. After that election, a 1932 watershed equivalent, I would expect inflation to very, very, slowly reappear.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:09
sam (JTF) ID#286279:
Afterthoughts, no need to respond, I know you have chores to do, me too. Most Japanese sites seem to be academic, industrial, government but not much personal/special interest. And again gleaned from my business partner: It seems that individuals/Japanese small business took to fax machines and computers quickly but still have not hooked up to internet. It's a mystery.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 17:08
Redneck (First post !! ) ID#403234:
-
Have been lurking at this site for approx. 6 months now and finally got the guts to post. Because of this site I now have 6-8 percent of my investment pool in PM's. Most of what goes on here goes right over my head but the fog is slowly lifting. Appreciate being able to look in from the outside and view opinions and comments from some people who are right in the thick of things. I also think some Joe-average types out there are slowly beginning to think about what to do when this equity bubble finally does burst. Case in point my interest in gold certainly has increased ( now I own some ) . Just looking for an edge. ( I am not scared of investing I am only scared of losing! ) : ) Thanks for letting us watch.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 16:59
JTF (Thanks for your post -- how to get Japanese input on Kitco -- logging of for real!) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
sam: Appreciate your communication about the Japanese culture. Most of my Oriental exposure is from my wife, who was born in China. Married over 20 years. I did know one Japanese family fairly well, and respect their values/work ethic very highly. Would put most Americans to shame. I can't think of any culture more hard-working or industrious, so it bothers me when the Kitco posts become uncomplimentary.

I too have noticed that for some reason, the Internet has not made much inroads in Japan, and that it is hard to interface with many of their web sites. Also, the Japanese have only a fraction of the computers per person that we do in the western world -- but I do not have a clue why. My Japanese professor friend was just as computer literate as I - but it never occurred to me to ask about Japan in general.

I do have a new friend who speaks fluent Japanese, as well as 7 other languages. He will be returning from SEAsia in a few weeks -- I will see what I can learn from him.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 16:55
aurophile (Locke & Lode) ID#256326:
Yep, it's a sorry history, but 'twas ever so, except for much of the period from 1720 to 1920. ( Well, how shall we screw them this year: devalue or debase? ) The point being that well-chosen gold and real estate are always the way to be safe, unless one is extremely well-placed or an agile trader.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 16:50
aurophile (Greek dump) ID#256326:
JTF: I did not see that before. Could it be related to Balkan blues? I doubt they have much gold left.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 16:49
Lock&Lode (@aurophile 16:16 Devaluation....and Inflation) ID#266110:
Copyright © 1998 Lock&Lode/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The two worst cancers created and imposed by Central Governments are:
1. Inflation... and
2. Devaluation

I find it very interesting how they lead the populace around by the nose and tell them that what the CG is doing is in their interest.

To start with INFLATION. It is created, controlled, and imposed by CGs as an unseen TAX upon the people. CGs benefit as they sell bonds and pay them back with inflated currency. They also get more as incomes increase and taxes creep with them. What a scam. If any business was doing this, the DOJ, SEC, IRS, and any other conceivable agency would take them out. But when CGs do it, we all shrug our shoulders and console ourselves with the thought that at least the value of our houses is going up. Wow, some consolation.

Then devaluation is another sick game. CGs once again perpetrate another crime on the public. THEY DEVALUE YOUR MONEY and BUYING POWER. But more importantly, they devalue the labor that you've put into something. If for example, you work 10 hours and they devalue the currency by 10%, its the same thing as if they taxed you on one hour of labor - becuase you lose. They also devalue all of the labor that you've stored up in currency that represents many months or years of your effort. It's all eroded away by a benevolent dictator who's looking-out for your interests.

Yeah, let's get real. If that's the case then I'm the Pope and Fidel Castro is Mother Theresa.

But everyone buys into this scam in order to make their product or service more competitive. Well if they really want to do so, then JUST LOWER THE PRICE and don't passively let government rape us.

There's another really sick aspect of this game. If one country devalues its currency, then another one does to stay competitive.. and then another, and another. Theoretically, every currency won't be worth two squirts of goat feces, but we'll all be happy as we stay competitive - wow, what a joke.

The only way to protect yourself from this incestuous rape is in the PM sector.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 16:46
JTF (flow of funds) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
aurophile: I agree with you. AG's work is made immensely more complicated by the fact that so much US - based wealth is now held outside the confines of our borders, and that foreign trade is no longer insignificant -- 25-30% last I checked, and rising faster than our GDP.
I think having all the world's banks use dollars as their reserve currency is not good -- because that make the US dollar subject to additional turmoil independent of what we generate ourselves.
I wonder, do you think Greece dumped US dollars because they have no gold to dump? Perhaps all of those reserve dollars will return in droves -- with further world-wide currency crises -- now that gold is becoming more dear again. Frigtening thought, even though it is good for gold.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 16:40
sam (JTF) ID#286279:
-
Besides the language barrier, many Japanese may read and write English but will not feel confident enough to contribute to a real time forum, this one is intimidating enough for English speaking Westerners, Japanese computer systems may be incompatibile as well. For example, I can't read Japanese characters anyway, but when I go to a Japanese www site I get mostly jibberish because I don't have Japanese fonts installed on my system. I am not bilingual or multilingual, I am an American ;- ) . I think you will have better luck getting Japanese input at first by going through an intermediary. Even that might be tough. After ten years of good business relations, frequent fax correspondence and hosting my Japanese vendor and his wife in my home ( they got the master bedroom, we slept on the floor in office/bedroom ) we are friends. He is wordly and speaks good English. Chat goes along with all business correspodence. He often replies at great length to my queries but when I asked about ordinary Japanese persons interest in gold and platinum coins he replied with a terse, Many Japanese suffered from unscrupulous ... I was not clear exactly what the problem was, I felt I should not pursue the subject.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 16:38
aurophile (flow of funds) ID#256326:
JTF: The degree to which a nation is dependent on foreign capital complicates things enormously as you say. The US panics of the 19th century were in large part due to that very factor. ( Some say the gold standard was responsible, but they were one and the same at the time. )

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 16:31
JTF (Addendum to SEAsia currency devaluation - inflation vs deflation) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A sudden currency devaluation does not cause local prices to rise, but it does cause the cost of imported goods to suddenly inflate. I think the SEAsia deflationary/inflatioary situation is complex, because the situation there with the currency devaluations was that that the devaluations were associated with a sudden withdrawal of foreign funds/credit. Hence -- in that scenario the deflation dominated. The sudden rise of the cost of foreign goods -- such as oil, etc. just made things even worse. Hence the Korean abuse of foreign cars, since most could no longer afford them.

Deflation and inflation can occur nearly at the same time!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 16:27
aurophile (JTF) ID#256326:
Good points all. The best time to own unleveraged gold is when there is a possibility of devaluation. The time to sell it is after the devaluation, as Asians have been doing. The time to own leveraged gold ( mines, futures, options, stocks ) is when official devalutions are not a threat but when unofficial erosive currency debasement is the game.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 16:23
aurator (my pleasure) ID#255284:
L&L

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 16:22
JTF (US: Inflation first, then deflation -- one last post for awhile!) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Donald: I am convinced that we have had our little period of deflation, and now we will be softened up with some more inflation before we have our major deflationary confrontation. What I don't know is the scenario. Will it be a drop in the US dollar, but not enough to crash the markets, or will it be a rise in commodity prices connected with the El Nino? Or will it just be a gold rally?

One wild card is the price of oil. Our oil-based economy is sensitive to the price of oil, so we might get a 'second' wind as they say, until oil prices go up again. Could be fairly soon if the strong oil producers such as Saudi Arabia are trying to shake out the weak ones. But -- it still might take months.

Also, gold is an early warning indicator of inflation, and can go up before interest rates and commodity prices. Right now the gold/cry0 index ratio is well below the 1993 pre-gold rally minimum. My graph does not extend before 1993, so I don't know how low prior gold/cry0 index ratios were, but it is now well below a 5-year low, even without a commodity price index rally!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 16:18
Lock&Lode (@ aurator RE: 15:29 Thanks for the re-post from April '97) ID#266110:
on the deflationary gains made by PMs.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 16:16
aurophile (devaluation ) ID#256326:
currency devaluation is deflating only to one's budget and ego, not to prices. the purpose of devaluation is to stimulate prices and economic activity and to liquidate uneconomic activities. if the latter are permitted to occur efficiently, the former happen nearly immediately.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 16:10
aurator (Donald RBNZ CJSI) ID#255284:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Donald
Interesting what goes into measuring inflation and what is omitted, no? Yes PCs tumble in value, as do VCRs, watches, anything digital, and H/House whiteware ( do you get imported brands or just US? ) Don't forget there are dozens of factories all over China & SE Asia still churning out ersatz plastic junk, geegaws and kitsch..The most common criticism of Jastram is how he measures a basket of general commodities. The same criticism most often levelled at measurements of Consumer Price Inflation.

Have you looked at the Reserve Bank of New ZEaland stuff I posted a few days ago which is REQUIRED by statute to maintain inflation in NZ in a band 0-3%? It was 0-2%, but that didn't last too long. I will be giving kitco's URL to someone at the RBNZ next week, he may be interesting to talk to?

CJSI
thanks mate, I didn't read the BH report. I'd say oyou're right. However, look at the asset mix here, Silver and zeros, looks like a delta hedge perhaps?

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 16:06
aurophile (flation ) ID#256326:
Donald: They left out official currency devaluation, taxation policy, gold booms ( after 1510, Spain ) and a number of other important issues ( and included wayne angell ) , but other than that the site is a reasonable beginning course. Thank you.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 16:05
Donald__A (A Chinese banking crisis will be good for gold) ID#26793:
http://wn.apc.org/wmail/issues/971121/BUS31.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 16:04
JTF (Egg-zact Answer! Off to do chores.) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
aurator: Thanks for your response. I would like to add something to the inflation-deflation debate that has just materialized again in the Kitco aether. I think deflation is a much more complex subject than inflation now than it was in the distant past. For example, now we have nearly 'instant' debt/currency deflation, re -- the SEAsian situation. Sudden debt/currency deflation is probably a relatively recent ailment of our economic system.

So -- we need to separate the relatively slowly evolving type of deflation that occurs when an economy winds down, from the 'freeze dried' type of one that occurs nearly instantly when a currency is suddenly devalued, or a debt implosion occurs.

One problem with gold is that it is in highest demand while people are relatively wealthy ( still able to buy gold ) , and in its lowest demand immediately after a sudden debt/currency deflation when all that the people care about is food and shelter. If I were a SEAsian and ran out of cash, I would be selling my gold along with the rest of the SEAsians, no matter how much it was worth. But after I could work again, every 'penny' saved would go into gold.

So -- perhaps the best way of unraveling the problem of gold and deflation is to define what kind of deflation we are talking about.

Finally, no matter what kind of deflation we have, I would guess that the time gold shines the most -- inflation vs deflation -- is right after a deflationary crisis. And -- that explanation is relatively simple -- what kind of currency do you want when you are barely able to put food on the table again? Paper that may become worthless again? Bank credits from Banks that could be wiped out again? Or something that is not someone elses liability?

I think the reason gold does so well in deflation is due to the deep distrust of other forms of money that develop after severe deflationary times. Even periods of inflatin can match that level of distrust, IHMO.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 15:56
CJS1__A (aurator: 14:49) ID#329157:
Copyright © 1998 CJS1__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If you read the Chairman's report from http://www.berkshirehathaway.com
it says that zero coupons are good in a deflationary environment, but hold the potential for losses in an inflationary environment. If that is the case, I would expect Berkshire Hathaway to start selling their zero coupons if they perceived a bout of inflation coming on. On the assumption that Warren Buffet is likely to be ahead of the average investor, I would look out for any sign of Berkshire Hathaway selling their zero coupons ( would such sales be evident? I don't know ) as a leading indicator of inflation taking off, which could well be a time of interest rates increasing, stock markets crashing, and investors looking for safe havens such as gold. For all I know, they might even buy gold with the proceeds from their zero coupons. Didn't see any mention of gold in the Hathaway report. Goldbugs who were hoping there would be a disclosure of gold purchases have been disappointed. But as the gold price has held around $295 ( above $280 of course ) without any Berkshire Hathaway purchases, unlike silver, there is an element of good news in that.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 15:52
Donald__A (He says the signs of deflation are temporary and inflation will follow) ID#26793:
http://www.dismal.com/thoughts/deflation_redux.stm

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 15:41
aurator () ID#250121:
aurophile
Yes Indeedy. Hum led me on quick foxtrot across some rather special maths, I loved it! I have a lot of homework to do now! Thank you for the intro to that group and the info.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 15:39
Donald__A (@Aurophile; here are some definitions.) ID#26793:
http://www.tradertalk.com/tutorial/idrd.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 15:36
sam (Mozel) ID#286279:
If you come back, you don't have to explain what happened, and you don't have to devote so much of your life to posting. Anyone else agree?

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 15:35
aurophile (deflation and other humorous anecdotes) ID#256326:
one of the first things we need to do is learn the difference between currency debasement and flation. then we can talk.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 15:33
Donald__A (Comments from Malaysia on gold and Islamic banking) ID#26793:
http://www.islamic-finance.com/item1.htm

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 15:29
JP (Run away Deflation is begining now brother) ID#253153:
The disinflationary period that started in 1982 is ending now. During those 17 years stocks did very well. Now, we are entering the run away Deflationay phase which will last for about 13--17 years. As we enter the new phase, and deflation spread, all commodities will decline in value. Only gold and silver will go up in value. I expect properties values to collapse within the next 2 years or sooner. I suspect that gold price will exceed $1500 / OZ within the next 2 years. The potential os gold stock at a minimum is 30 times present values. Buy now.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 15:29
aurophile (aurator) ID#256326:
I saw you made contact with his humbleness senor humility ( HHSH ) . cheers. bbl.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 15:29
aurator (First posted here April 30 1997) ID#250121:
-
------Gold In Deflation ------

Or

Why I ignore any analyst who unthinkingly spouts Gold is a good hedge against inflation.

This extracted from Jastram's the golden Constant. In his book the two tables were laid out side by side in 15 columns, just too confusing without layout. I have divided his table into two. One heading for inflationary periods, the other for Deflationary. Notice that gold, according to Jastram is a worse performer, in terms of keeping value than silver during inflation. Notice too that during a time of general commodity collapse in value gold outshines silver.


Purchasing Power of Silver & Gold in Inflationary cf Deflationary
Times
INFLATIONARY
Years CMdty Price % Silver% Gold %
1623-1658 51 -34 -34
1675-1695 27 -13 -21
1702-1723 25 -18 -22
1752-1776 27 -22 -21
1792-1813 92 -33 -27
1897-1920 305 -61 -67
1933-1979 2149 241 27


DEFLATIONARY
Years Price % Silver % Gold %
1658-1669 -21 27 42
1813-1851 -51 69 70
1873-1896 -45 -6 82
1920-1933 -69 32 251

The data comes from England that has a long history of record keeping ( wheat prices back to 12thCent ) . As I recall the study is naturally not without its difficulties. Over the time intervals who he chooses. ANd how he measures the general commodity series. But I've never seen a better historical analysis.

Look at the deflationary periods. The first is the Jacobean Civil Wars that gave rise to The Bill of Rights of 1688, still the cornerstone of our unwritten constitution.
The second is the depression following the Napoleonic wars, then the Railways Panics through the Great Depresion of the end of last century. Then the comparative cakewalk ( tho' it did not feel like it at the time ) of the Depression of the 30's following the Wall St CRash.

OK Deflationary Wars, cf Inflationary Wars anyone?

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 15:20
Miro (@RETIRED SOLDIER on Dept of Army) ID#347457:
Copyright © 1998 Miro/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
@RETIRED SOLDIER on Dept of Army

Retired soldier, while I don’t think that you are in any significant danger of not getting your check, you are wrong Y2K readiness of USArmy. They are making progress along with other DOD entities, but they have a way to go to become compliant. Not all computers bought after 1995 are compliant ( that includes Army computers ) ! E.g. most of PC became compliant after 1996, and only n May of 1996 the Army issued a stop work order on all non-compliant systems, and since has included Year 2000 compliance language in its contracts to ensure that all products purchased are compliant.
Anyway, it’s not a computer but software which runs on it which usually fails. You have some old systems and software running in Dep. Of Army ( that includes payroll systems ) and that needs some fixing The Army plans to have all mission critical systems implemented by December 1998 and non-mission critical implemented by November 1999. It looks that some of these deadlines will slip.

BTW, if you want verification of what I say from the Army, go to their Y2K page
http://www.army.mil/army-y2k/

( access to some areas is restricted )

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 15:13
Donald__A (Nothing makes Kitco come alive the the old inflation-deflation debate!) ID#26793:
Whack!, Biff!, Socko!, Smack!, Wap!!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 15:08
Donald__A (@Aurator) ID#26793:
You beat me to it. Fear is good for gold. Fear of inflation or deflation, either one works fine. Deflation works best because it increases the buying power of gold. With inflation gold only maintains its buying power steady as it has since 1933 for most of th world. The trouble with inflation is that you are taxed on your imaginary gold gains. With deflation you receive a tax loss which increases your real gain.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 15:08
Lock&Lode (@ aurator RE:Gold as a hedge in deflationary times.) ID#266110:
Yes, please drag your treatise up and post it. I have been arguing the same tenants to some aquaintences, but most people start laughing because of the standard montra about AU as an hedge against inflation. PRINT ON, BRO ! !

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 15:05
JP (Gold as an hedge against Deflation) ID#253153:
Gold is a fantastic hedge against defllation because as deflation spreads aroung the globe ,political chaos will follow, defauls, currencies reneg,
devaluations and especially safety will drive money towards safety. Safety will be found in Gold. The bull market in Gold has begun. Gold shares will be much higher by year end.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 14:58
aurator (The Golden Constant) ID#255284:
VP
Be heartened! Ever since I read Roy Jastram's *The Golden Constant*.I have immediately dismissed as naive any analyst who trots out Gold is a good hedge against inflation.

Gold is a safe haven in deflation, not inflation, according to his work that I've presented here before. I dare say I can find it again, being such a slow day..if'n you'd like.

Hi Skylark!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 14:57
Lock&Lode (@JTF 14:07 China Production of 3.3 million bpd of Oil) ID#266110:
Copyright © 1998 Lock&Lode/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Now it all makes sense. Now I know why Clitton has been so chummy with the Chinese from '95 onward. He was actually looking out for the strategic interests of the US by aligning a new source of oil as an alternative to the Mideast. He knew that we should secure a strong position by accepting campaign finances and opening a new spigot across the Pacific instead through the Suez.

My apologies to you Billary. Here we were ragging on you all these months and we should have been thanking you for making yourself a lackey to the chinese chaebols. If only we could repeal the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution, we could have you on board for a few more decades and a few more interns.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 14:56
henryd__A (John D, others ... BusinessWeek - A Tremor in the mines ...) ID#34857:
March 23 issue: One-page article by Kathy Chenault about the SA gold mining industry's woes, high production costs, possible labor concessions, and a teaser about Anglogold's potential to become the world's biggest gold producer.

HenryD - Go GOLD!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 14:49
aurator (I need a dikshunary) ID#255284:
CJSI, Anyone Translation plse, I am trying to wake up ( playing with Fibo, Caralan and now Lucas last night gave me bwain stwain.:
Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 08:49
CJS1__A ( Buffet Zeros ) ID#329157:
Apparently Hathaway selling its zeros would be an indication that inflation is set to rear its ugly head- phase 2 of deflation-inflation, then bullish for gold?

Are we talking zero coupons? or ANOTHER term of art?

VRWC =

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 14:46
Voyeur Professor (Continued bearishness concerning gold's future.) ID#231101:
Copyright © 1998 Voyeur Professor/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Briefing.Com has rendered another sour view of gold's future.

Comment: Bolstered by light bargain hunting, the financial crisis in Asia, favorable seasonals, the Clinton scandal, a silver rally and heightened tensions in the Middle East, spot gold has rebounded smartly off its late '97 low. Precious metals stocks have followed suit, led by the large-cap components such as Newmont Mining, Barrick and Homestake. Can gold and gold stocks keep it up? Given the steep declines experienced late last year, additional corrective gains are likely over the short-term. But we seriously doubt that the metals sector can sustain an uptrend since there has been little chage to the l/t bearish fundamental picture. As we noted in our last update, the ingredients ( excess supply, discounted valuations and the competitive advantages of risk-free short-term paper yielding 3%-4% ) remain in place for additional Central Bank selling. Changes in the marketplace over the past ten to twenty years bode poorly as well. Gold is now more a true commodity and less a hedge on inflation/political instability. With the introduction of new instruments such as inflation-indexed bonds and oil futures, investors fearful of inflation have additional, and more direct, investment alternatives to hedge their portfolios. Another reason why gold will have a difficult time sustaining an advance is that the supply/demand equation remains bearish. Though jewelry demand remains relatively brisk, particularly from places like China and India, the investment demand for gold is virtually non-existent. Finally, gold simply doesn't measure up as a investment option when stocks continue to drive to new highs and bonds return nearly 6.0% risk-free. Though companies that are actively hedged against a drop in gold prices will be somewhat insulated from the effects of the recent price drop ( Barrick in particular ) , lousy earnings momentum, and a negative backdrop for gold prices, suggest that these stocks will continue to underperform the market over the long-term. Nevertheless, to reflect the oversold tone and the group's improved relative strength, we are raising our short-term rating to 4. Stocks: Barrick Gold, Battle Mountain Gold, Coeur d'Alene Mines, Echo Bay Mines, Hecla Mining Co., Homestake Mining, Newmont Mining, Pegasus Gold, Placer Dome.

The caveat here, of course, resides in the unexamined assumption that low inflation, higher equity prices, and a public totally disinterested in gold as an investment will continue indefinitely. Also subject to perusal is the questionable view of gold's supply/demand fundamentals, a situation that, should Asia recover and renew its interest in gold buying once more, does not necessarily bode ill for future gold prices. Let's hope that investors will recognize the dangerous conditions implicit in our over-inflated paper economy.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 14:38
jonesy (Quiet today) ID#251166:

Famous movie line: It's quiet, too quiet.

CUT TO -- The stuff hits fan . . .


Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 14:38
OLD GOLD (Clinton) ID#238295:
Do not expect Clinton's troubles to do too much damge to stocks or push gold up sharply. The Repoublican oppostion is even more pro business than Big Bill. I do think the stock bull and gold bear will end soon, but for much more fundamental reasons than Clinton's escapades.

BTW, when Nixon came under pressure to resign, the oppostion Democrats still were a liberal party. The US had lost the Vietnam War. OPEC had hiked oil prices sharply. Totally different than the current situation.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 14:37
Lock&Lode (@ John Disney_A I concur with you, selling fwrd @ $385 / oz...) ID#266110:
Copyright © 1998 Lock&Lode/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
makes no sense. There are only two possible caveats that I can come up with.

1. GC already has a contract going way back when gold was $385+ that they're filling now.
OR
2. They could be selling to themselves ( or some other gold producer who is selling the same to them at the same amount ) . With this scenario, they might be trying to pump the value of gold with the hopes that someone out there notices. Maybe others will do the same and maybe the market might see something going on that it will grab onto.

No matter what, it's still strange as you said. But in this day and age, nothing would amaze me. Strange things happen all the time-just look at the newspaper and you'll see a freak show.


Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 14:34
aurator () ID#255284:
JTF
The fountain, I guess, is the runny albumen in an undercooked hardboiled egg?

Anyone knows what if feels like in the calm before an earthquake? seems very quiet out there today.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 14:07
JTF (Non-OPEC oil up 990,000 bpd in 1997.) ID#57232:
All: Is this the shakeout of the weak producers, or will this increase last for some time? Please note China -- now a major producer at 3.3million bpd. If China is ramping up rapidly, cheap Oil prices might be the rule for some time.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980313/oil_output_1.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 13:43
Pedro (XAU) ID#224151:
Just looking at an XAU chart and IMVHO it hasn't looked this good for some time.Quite a nice looking base has been built since October and to my ever optimistic eye it is not hard to envision an upside breakaway gap in the offing.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 13:32
chas (John D, creative accounting) ID#342282:
I'm sure there's a lot of this going on, but you seem to pinpoint some cases. Did you see Polabear's post 3/12 @ 04:29? Great URL re Harmony refinery. Would appreciate your comments. Mucho obligo

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 13:20
John Disney__A (What's going on out there ) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
to all
I just looked at Great Central's results. They
made a 6 month profit of 11.4 mill US with a revenue
of 111.2 mil $US on gold sales of 288,000 oz.
They said their cash costs were 195$/oz .. this
means precisely nothing to me. Their Average cost
was ( 111.2 - 11.4 ) * 1000000/288.000 or 346 $/oz.
That means a lot to me .. cash cost are an
internal number limited only by the creative ability
of one's accounting department.
Now they sold all their production for the last
six months of 1997 at an average price of 385$/oz ..
I really dont see how this works .. who bought it
and how come they aren't bankrupt
Does anyone understand what is going on .. the price
of gold is 295 .. but it seems you can sell it for
a lot more than this if you really want to.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 12:59
chas (Market antics, previous) ID#342282:
Forgot to add- you got to get em up to sell and you got to get em down to buy, sorry

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 12:54
chas (Market antics) ID#342282:
Don't y'all think that activity in this gold makt may be some kin to Rothschild's action in London after Battle of Waterloo? It appears to me that the stock marketis the reverse of this. Happy hunting

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 12:25
John B__A (Repeat Buffett's message (better formatted)) ID#17470:
Copyright © 1998 John B__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Our second non-traditional commitment is in silver. Last year, we purchased 111.2 million ounces. Marked to market, that position produced a pre-tax gain of $97.4 million for us in 1997. In a way, this is a return to the past for me: Thirty years ago, I bought silver because I anticipated its demonetization by the U.S. Government. Ever since, I have followed the metal's fundamentals but not owned it. In recent years, bullion inventories have fallen materially, and last summer Charlie and I
concluded that a higher price would be needed to establish equilibrium between supply and demand. Inflation expectations, it should be noted, play no part in our calculation of silver's value.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 12:20
John B__A (Complete Silver Quote From Buffett's Letter) ID#17470:
Copyright © 1998 John B__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Buffett ( see below ) did not add much explanation to his silver purchase of 1997. One positive hint ( that he will holding on to this horde ) is his comment relating to inflation. It hints that silver has two good sides; first on fundamentals and second as an inflation edge. Its also interesting that he was a silver buyer thirty years ago and has tracked it ever since.


Our second non-traditional commitment is in silver. Last year, we purchased 111.2 million ounces. Marked to market, that
position produced a pre-tax gain of $97.4 million for us in 1997. In a way, this is a return to the past for me: Thirty years ago, I
bought silver because I anticipated its demonetization by the U.S. Government. Ever since, I have followed the metal's
fundamentals but not owned it. In recent years, bullion inventories have fallen materially, and last summer Charlie and I
concluded that a higher price would be needed to establish equilibrium between supply and demand. Inflation expectations, it
should be noted, play no part in our calculation of silver's value

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 12:10
JTF ('60 Minutes' this Sunday) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: As far as I can recall, the '60 minutes' newscasters have consistently followed the party line regarding BC - so far. This is not Matt Drudge, but mainstream journalism. If Matt Drudge's post about Kathleen Willey's interview with '60 minutes' is accurate, and it is a 'bad' day for BC, this will probably mark the turning point in the president's future. I doubt that other major newsmedia will continue to support BC if '60 minutes' fails to do so.

Personally, I think it is just a matter of time. A pile of lies can only survive by the addition of more lies, likely to be even more 'wild' than the previous ones. Eventually even the lies of the best liars collapse under their own weight. I do not like the presidency being under a cloud of suspicion like this -- but -- if this is what it takes to bring a liar down, so be it. We need honesty in government, as well as in our own lives. We are partially at fault, and must accept the consequences of what is coming -- a bear US stock market to go with a president in trouble. I hope we can reap long-term benefits by cleaning house in all branches of government. But -- this may not come until the economy is clearly in trouble. Good for gold, as long as the process of 'awakening' is gradual.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 12:08
Selby () ID#286230:
Speed: Atleast we understand what is going on now--well maybe.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 12:05
chevy (For Old Gold) ID#287358:

Has the volume of new posters on this site gone up more than normal? I'm only a few months on this site but I think it has. I would think the new comers would be buyer vs. sellers. Go bulls!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 11:55
chas (AragonIII re your's 3/13 @ 12:44) ID#342282:
To me it's obfuscation ( confusion ) . Croesus did it first. It's a real paradox. Gold is denominated in units of wgt and purity. Money ( countability ) is denominated in units of account. I think in some cases this confusion of unit of a/c and unit of wgt is do to the clouded bookkeeping by CB's and govnmts. This confusion has always been a ruse and I don't think this has changed. Hope this helps.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 11:53
Avalon (Anyone heard about this ? That the major Wall Street Houses are trying to ) ID#254269:

increase interest rates on their commercial loans by doing what is called a buy up?. Say you want to borrow $ 10 million at 7.5%. What they will do is lend you a higher figure ( say $11 million ) at 8.0%. Sort of like an interest rate buydown but in reverse ! Anyone heard about this and whether it is widespread ?

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 11:49
RETIRED SOLDIER (@ FundaMetalist) ID#347235:
Thank you for your insight but I beleive the Congressman is wrong about DOD or at least Dept of Army which is where my checks come from. I still work for the Army and we already are embarking on new Computer purchases, any computer bought AFTER 1995 is already Y2K compliant and many people are no aware of that fact. BUT JUST TO BE EXTRA SAFE I am taking Bulldogs advice and Spending my retired pay buying gold in a good mix of ML,AE,VP and sovs.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 11:45
Speed (Buffett and Silver) ID#286199:
Copyright © 1998 Speed/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Dow Jones Newswires -- February 3, 1998

NEW YORK -- The announcement by investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. ( BRKA ) Tuesday that it owns 129.7 million ounces of silver reveals the major participant in the recent price rally and is drawing comparisons with the Hunt Brothers, who tried to corner the silver market in the 1970s and 1980s. The amount of silver owned by Berkshire Hathaway is larger than the entire current amount of silver currently held in Comex warehouses, at 103.78 million ounces. It compares with estimated total supply in 1997 of around 570 million ounces.
'We're talking about a major amount of money - you're pushing up on close to $1 billion,' said Tim Evans, a commodities analyst with trading ompany Pegasus Econometrics in New York.

Berkshire Hathaway said in its announcement that all the metal it purchased was through a single brokerage firm and that it 'had no knowledge of the actions or positions of any other market participant.'

Stocks of silver held at Comex warehouses declined by 90 million ounces between late May and the end of 1997, while Berkshire said its purchases of silver were made between July 25 last year and Jan. 12 of this year.

Ok, Selby, looks like 111 million purchased through December 1997 and then 18.7 million more purchased through Jan 12. Delivery took place through March. Guess we've pounded this to death.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 11:37
MoReGoLd (@CLINTONIAN SOCIETY) ID#348286:
Clinton will be raked through the coals on Sunday ( 60 Minutes ) and next week, about his manick sexual problems, and Criminal behavior.

His approval rating / popularity will soar further with the public, stocks will rise to new highs, the bond market will flurish, and lthe US dollar will trample over other currencies ( Gold ? ) .

OK, back to the asylum............

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 11:29
STUDIO.R (@PMF.....your 10:10....) ID#288369:
Good stuff.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 11:20
Selby () ID#286230:
thats 111 million ozs in 1997

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 11:17
Selby () ID#286230:
Speed: I don't know how much silver Warren has. I was surprised to find that he had bought the 111 million ozs in 1977 or earlier and I never heard about it. Everybody knows about the 130 million he bought in 1998 but the earlier purchase ( s ) didn't come to my attention until this morning when I read what I just posted.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 11:17
STUDIO.R (@Poorly Peopleo....Purchasing Papero and Passing on Preciousoso.....) ID#288369:
Copyright © 1998 STUDIO.R/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Rates...Rates...Rates of Return. The Fed rate proves the trust that the world has in the Dollar. No return offered to or required by buyers as an incentive to grab the greenback. Until this Trust is undermined or jeopardized, paper and its facitious family flourish. What must happen for we Goldbugs to prevail ( profit ) ...Inflation in America...my best damn friend ( not being on fixed income ) .

Common and proved sources of domestic inflation: oil shortage, crop shortages, raw material shortages and escalating labor costs resulting from an expanding economy. Demand will create the shortages...a slow train coming. ( from a distance ) chooooo....chooooo....but no ding, ding, ding yet.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 11:16
robnoel__A (Darn conversation here this morning far to logical,I'am off to a liberal chat room..where logic) ID#411112:
becomes a VRWC

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 11:12
Speed (Selby) ID#286199:
So does that mean he holds 111 million, 130 million or 241 million ounces of silver? I thought that he bought silver from June-July through December, announced the fact in February and the total was/is roughly 130 million. I need another cup of coffee, I guess.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 11:06
Selby (May not be a shortage for Warren) ID#286230:
Speed: Re: Buffett's 111 million oz of silver.

Looks like the report was for purchases made in or before 1997 and does not refer to his recent 130 million ozs.

Here is what Warren Buffet said in his report in regards to his silver investment:

Last year, we purchased 111.2 million ounces of silver. Marked to

market, that position produced a pre-tax gain of $97.4 million for us in 1997.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 11:00
crazytimes (Media, Denial, Truth, and the Hundreth Monkey Syndrome) ID#342376:
Copyright © 1998 crazytimes/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It has been very interesting to watch Main Stream media the last few months. Almost all the buisness reports have centered on this incredible Bull Market that continues to stampede and show no signs of slowing down. I've witnessed some guests on these shows that tried to speak of the obvious problems and the hosts of these programs downplayed these assertions and even changed the topic. I believe the Main Steam Media has had a good part in keeping this Bull Market going in it's final run. The Denial has been knee deep. What I think is happening now is that the writing on the wall is beggining to become so clear that the Main Stream Media will have to own up to the problem or face the fact that they might be the target of people's anger after they have lost a bit of their nest-egg because there was NOT more coverage of the impending dangers. I think you will begin to see these programs giving more warnings to people. They were trying to hold off the inevitable for a while but the tide is changing. At some point, the Hundreth-Monkey Syndrome takes over. This is the point at where a behavior that started by some ( selling ) reaches a critical point that suddenly starts to spread like wildfire. My gut says that critical point is in the next few weeks.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 10:59
Donald__A (Irish officials refuse to comment on possible devaluation plans) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980314/irish_mone_1.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 10:58
robnoel__A (Summers say's it ensure depositors that thier money will be good...another reason not to buy gold?) ID#411112:

.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 10:56
Donald__A (Greek Prime Minister to address the nation Sunday on plans for the drachma) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980314/europe_gre_3.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 10:51
Donald__A (Summers worried about the Japanese economy.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980313/summers_sa_2.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 10:47
robnoel__A (Donald.I think I'am going to cry........) ID#411112:


Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 10:44
Donald__A (@Mr. Mick) ID#26793:
I have only a suspicion why Mozel left and don't want to post it. I wish he would come back. When he spoke I felt that I had a patriotic duty to be involved in gold; as though I owe it to the founding fathers to hold gold and restore their vision for America. That vision required it as the only money and grew out of their experience with a failed paper Continental dollar. Someone has to bring this country ( and this world ) back to its senses. Let it start here.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 10:36
OLD GOLD (Japan 1989, US 1998) ID#238295:
Lots of people now arguing that stocks will remain elevated and gold depressed because the powers that be are omnipotent and can make markets do their bidding forever.

That is what they were saying about Japan in the 1980s. The bull would continue because the authorities would not allow it to collapse.

When this stock bull finally rolls over, a hoorendous grizzly will pounce on the dipsters and the authorities will be powerless to do much more than keep the decline orderly. Same with gold on the upside.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 10:30
PMF (robnoel__A @ Mar 14 1998 10:22) ID#224363:
I had to resort to logic...flipping a coin just wasn't working.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 10:26
rhody (@All re the great '90s bull market. I gave this market untill mid march before) ID#411331:
Copyright © 1998 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
a correction, but I think we may have until the end of the month. I suspect Japan will raise interest rates on APRIL 1 and it really will be
April Fool's Day for continuing bulls. Japan's action should end the
yen-dollar carrying trade that has inflated the American markets with
Japanese investment. It will also but Mr AB in quite a spot. If he counters with an American interest rate increase, he kills the equities and consumer market in N America, and this should precipitate a fall in the market even faster than a withdrawl of Japanese support. Surely the
deflationary effects of the Asian Flu will also be arriving quite visibly by end of March. If AB counters with a drop in interest rates, he chases out Japanese investors, and augments inflationary pressures. All of the
above are incredibly bullish for gold, and bearish for the American dollar. My fear is that we could have a concerted attack on gold prices by monetary forces in the United States just at a time when gold should be going stratopheric.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 10:24
Reify (All aboard) ID#413109:
Copyright © 1998 Reify/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Don't like to post with predictions unless I think there's a good
chance they'll come true. Finished my homework, and it says next
week the PMs are going up, and the indecies down. How long this leg is
good for, and how far, is open to furhter look sees next week.
The type of tech stuff I do is a little unconventional, as it gets
familiar with patterns and rythms, like the people that invest in a
particular stock, do so in a systimatic way, it seems, and maybe the
market makers also have certain habits that seem to repeat. Then I also
use the conventional tech stuff you're all familiar with, and when they
go hand in hand, it's usually a positive sign.
Thanks to Sharefin, Panda and others that post charts from time to time,
I use them and enjoy them.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 10:22
robnoel__A (Shame on you PMF for using logic,another member of the VPMC) ID#411112:


Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 10:13
OLD GOLD (final shakeout?) ID#238295:
Eldorado: You may be right about a false downside breakout coming before a major upmove in POG. That is often how major bear markets end. I'm sure there are lots of sell stops at $290 or a little below. Odds that these will be taken out before a major move up at least fifty-fifty.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 10:11
Carl (Sunday night 60 Minutes - A turning Point) ID#341189:
The American public's love for psychopathic characteristics in their leaders in going to run headlong into their love of victims on Sunday night. Clinton's poll ratings may turn down at last. The beginning of a turn up in fear. Gold. Down in the dollar. IMHO

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 10:10
PMF (On a slow Saturday morning...) ID#224363:
Copyright © 1998 PMF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Some idle thoughts…

Gold and other precious metals tend to induce a wide range of reactions in different people. For some, the metals are nothing more than abstract concepts without any real meaning. For others, the metals represent wealth, power and protection.

From a personal perspective, I have chosen to place a large portion of my holdings into metals and metal producing stocks ( both blue chip and aggressive/risky juniors ) . Virtually no cash.

My rationale is exceptionally simple-minded and follows.

1 ) Virtually every middle and upper income level person I know has moved the vast majority of their financial holdings out of cash and into equity funds, index funds, and individual stock. One of the best contrary thinkers once said the masses are seldom wrong in the middle, but are usually wrong at the top and bottom. We aren't at the top of the equity market yet but we are much closer to the bottom of the precious metals market and it is my opinion that a 'flip' is coming.

2 ) A large percentage of these people have significant personal debt ( credit cards, line of credit, margin accounts ) . When debt is easy to carry because of low interest rates, it tends to be manageable and accumulates but when rates rise, the debt will be suffocating and will strangle the equities market.

3 ) I very much like the idea of investments that are linked to tangible value. ( price of gold, silver ) . It used to be that a p/e ratio provided a fair measure of equity value but those days are gone for now.

4 ) The central banks have lots of gold and at some point they will either stop selling or will end up selling it all. I'm relatively young so I don't mind the wait and while I wait, a low price for a long period allows me to purchase more. The longer that the CBs and governments keep gold low, the greater the probability that they will screw something up and take our economies out of the current growth phase into a deflationary or inflationary spiral. I am not suggesting that the low price of gold will cause these events but I am suggesting that no government can consistently do the right thing for an extended period of time.

5 ) Cash at this point does not interest me. Governments control fiat currencies and as I said in point ( 4 ) , governments can not be trusted to do the right thing. I am Canadian, take a look at the value of the Canadian dollar over the last ten years. For a better understanding, Take a look at the Indonesian rupiah.

6 ) An astute and skeptical reader would say But what if you had bought gold at $400 or $600 or $800, it would also be of lesser value now. Absolutely correct but gold has a much better potential to revalue upwards than a fiat currency does. Cash is what you use to transact immediate business but don't use it to store wealth.

In the meantime, I will watch, listen, and look for the trigger events ( which have already started ) .

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 10:06
lenaxe (ALL: There was some speculation today that a recent) ID#31581:
Copyright © 1998 lenaxe All rights reserved
large purchase of HM stock by a German investor was related to the possiblity that the EC will be holding more gold as backing for the currency than was previously thought. It sort of makes sense. If they are going to launch a new currency, wouldn't they want it to be perceived as a strong currency as opposed to a weak one? What better way to impart strength to the perception of value than back it strongly with gold reserves? Additionally, at these relatively low prices for gold, what is to be gained by further depreciating the metal? Bottom line is that irrespective of their ultimate thoughts on the gold reserve issue, they may have no other choice but to hold onto large gold reserves at these prices in the hopes that they can stimulate a large interest in the new currency as an exchange medium. After all, there are already plenty of fiat currencies around that most people have little use for. Why print another one?

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 09:49
robnoel__A (Morning all:off to see a shrink today,got this addiction problem Kitcoietes) ID#411112:

hope he can help me,just can't seem to go to any other web page,could be something in my childhood...or a VRWC

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 09:39
Speed (Japan on April 1) ID#286199:
http://nypostonline.com/business/1009.htm

Bullish for gold, I think.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 09:37
cherokee__A (@----%-rates-going-up---) ID#344308:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

interest rates have got to be raised due to what the fed has
been doing for the last 2 years......the money supply has
being super-inflated.......what happened in the years pre-ceding
the great depression and wall street's collapse? same story.....

the peopleo are ready for harvest...the grist mill awaits the chaff
from 69 years of care-ful tending....the scythe calls your name....
peopleooooo.......oh peopleo...stand tall and lean against the blade.

who'll sing the swan song of the peopleo? oooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww.
it'll be a wail, straight from hell.

cherokee!;....looking-back-to-see-forward------

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 09:24
Ted (ROB & The Loonie) ID#330175:
But it was down the last two days...eh---later dudes~~~~

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 09:23
Ted (A beautiful day in Cape Breton) ID#330175:
Time for the 'daily-walk'----bye

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 09:22
Rob (canadian Dollar) ID#410114:
The canadian dollar continued to rise. Money is moving into Canada.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 09:21
Ted (Bully Beef & raisin interest rates in the states) ID#330175:
No way ( imNsho ) --not with all the other shaky currencies ( especially in Asia ) around the world~~~~~

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 09:21
JTF (Logging off for chores) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
CJS1: My personal opinion, IMHO, is that you are right -- we are heading for an inflationary phase in the US. I don't know exactly where the inflation phenomena will rear its ugly head first -- wages or commodities -- probably commodities. Can't believe that crude oil could go down much more. And -- ElNino is bound to mess up crop yeilds in the US this year. Already has affected the fruit industry in Calif.

What worries me is that we could be wipsawed by a sudden equity collapse -- probably in 1999, or 2000 -- not 1998. A sudden loss of liquidity in the US equity markets will hit the precious metals equity stocks, simply because so many people will be experiencing margin calls, etc.

So, we may have a nice bull market in precious metals equities during our pending inflationary phase -- but -- we must keep one 'jaundiced' eye on the regular equity markets. Good thing they will be kept up by the baby boomers for months to come -- they will not give up easily.

I would still suggest -- keep ( at least some ) of your powder dry, because gold and gold equities will shine even more after the equity collapse. We must be patient, as this may be many years from now.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 09:19
Ted (Bully Beef--------------you better hope it wasn't YOU---------------) ID#330175:
Cause we have a Kitco assassination-squad and we will hunt you down like a 'cornered rat'~~~~~*go Gold*...eh..

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 09:18
G-spot (Never mind ....Got it) ID#431116:
Never mind ....Got it

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 09:18
Bully Beef (indication that to cool down american economy a raise of ) ID#259282:
interest rates?

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 09:17
G-spot (testing) ID#431116:
Can anyone tell me how you enter your handle on here.Do you enter it under SUBJECT.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 09:08
Bully Beef (mozels Swan Song March 12@22:46) ID#259282:
Hope it wasn't me. There were some nasty exchanges that day and I'm a newcomer.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 09:06
JTF (Ineresting Commentary) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mr. Mick: Could the Fed raise rates before the year is over? Possibly. AG knows very well we have an equity market bubble right now, and we are headed for trouble around 1999-2000. But - will he dare raise rates with the world deflationary problems that began in SEAsia? I don't know. Also -- AG has been trying to inflate the dollar with the spigot wide open, in an attempt to fill that deflationary black hole in SEAsia that seems to be spreading. But -- much of the new cash goes into the stock market, driven by 'flight to safety' by foreign investors, and baby boomers in the US who do not know where else to put their money.

I get a sense of futility from AG -- who knows what is coming, but is powerless to prevent it. What is happening now may not be all that different from the late 20's when the US dollar was inflated on the desperate request of some rather influential European bankers that wanted their gold back. The rest of the world was in depression, and foreign investors chose the US as a last refuge. Did the US bankers, US Fed really have that much control, or were they simply swept up by the economic tide that lead to the October 1929 creshendo? I don't know.

History tends to repeat itself, albeit imperfectly.

How do you inflate the money supply without inflating the equity markets? And, how do you raise interest rates when you want the US dollar to weaken? Anything that AG does will have negative repercussions -- so -- what does he do? I think I will stick with my day job -- much easier than his, I think.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 08:49
CJS1__A (Buffet Zeros) ID#329157:
Apparently Hathaway selling its zeros would be an indication that inflation is set to rear its ugly head- phase 2 of deflation-inflation, then bullish for gold?

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 08:48
Mr. Mick (Astute commentary?) ID#345321:
Copyright © 1998 Mr. Mick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Saturday March 14 8:07 AM EST

US Stock Market in Last Act of Three-Act Play?

By Pierre Belec

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Wall Street is still in love with the stock market, but some experts say
investors should enjoy it while they can. This may be the last act of a three-act play.

Just when it seemed that the earnings reality was finally sinking in, stocks snapped back from a series
of body blows by high-profile companies such as Intel Corp., Compaq Computer Corp. and
Motorola Inc. that warned of sub-par profits for the latest quarter.

The liquidity-driven market this week raced up to two all-time highs, with the Dow Jones industrial
average ending down 57.04 points Friday at 8,602.52, just below Wednesday's record of
8,675.75. For the week, it was up 33.13 points.

Not everybody is happy about the market's giddy rise, and some warned the stock market could be
running out of luck and the Dow could be poised for a headlong drop to the 7,000 level.

This rally certainly is not sustainable, said Arnold Kaufman, editor of Standard & Poor's financial
newsletter. Clearly, the market is at a stage where gains are feeding on themselves with valuations
beyond historical extremes.

The rally was pumped up by a return flow of buying by investors who felt stocks, particularly the
technology sectors, that were overpriced prior to the earnings warnings were now better bargains
after the sell-off.

The concern was that the incredible earnings story, which played a big role in the stock market's
double-digit gains over the last three years, will face its toughest year in a decade because of the
Asian economic meltdown and the weak pricing environment dogging many companies.

Also, the risk is that the inflation-fighting Federal Reserve could bring the curtain down on the
red-hot market.

Business cycles do not die of natural death and in the end the Fed is the instrument of change for the
economy, said Stephen Roach, chief economist for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter.

What's ahead, he said, is a classic late business cycle phenomena where the economy grows too fast
for too long, the labor market gets too tight, and wages rise, squeezing profit margins. At this stage,
inflation picks up speed and the Fed has to chase prices down.

The Fed last raised interest rates in March 1997 in a bid to keep the fast-growing economy from
overheating.

Now, there are signs the economy is still on a roll after seven years of expansion, and the risk is that
inflation will build with the jobless rate the lowest in nearly 25 years.

The job market may be getting even tighter. The government reported this week that first-time claims
for state unemployment benefits hit a six-month low.

With fundamentals as solid as they are right now, it's very clear the economy will grow more rapidly
than expected ... and that could bring a classic late business cycle monetary tightening by the Fed,
which will cause problems in late 1999 and early 2000, said Roach.

He believes the Fed is going to have to move starting in the second half of this year.

Roach expects the key Fed fund rate will end the year at 6 percent and will move up to 6.50 percent
by the first half of 1999. The short-term lending rate now stands at 5.50 percent.

Until then, Wall Street should enjoy the good times.

The Dow should rally to 9,000 in the near term, he said. But by year-end, stocks will be down to
7,000.

Kaufman said the stock market has ignored all the danger signs and could be blindsided by a bad
turn in the economy,

People are talking about the lack of inflation but they have to keep in mind that self-correcting
mechanisms in the economy can come out of the blue, he said.

Wall Street could be in for a shock because it has not seen the downside of a business cycle since
1990, Kaufman said.

The market is up nine to 10 percent so far this year and certainly the economy, corporate profits,
dividends and the U.S. position in world trade have not improved that much over the last 2-1/2
months, Kaufman said.

George Nickas, a trader at Saul Stone Inc. said investors are being drawn to the stock market
because it is the only game in town.

Money market funds are paying out only five percent, currency markets are lackluster and
commodities are flat.

The flow of investment money is still going into stocks and it's the only place that the public wants to
put its cash, he said.

People are in a rush to put a lot of money in a market that can't expand as fast as the cash that's
pouring in and the scramble is creating a shortage of stocks, Nickas said.

There are just so many blue chip stocks such as IBM, and everybody wants to own a piece of it
and the law of supply and demand tells you that the price must go up, he said.

The Nasdaq composite index was down 18.17 points at 1,771.66 for the week. The Standard &
Poor's composite index of 500 stocks rose 12.90 to 1,068.59. The NYSE composite index of all
listed common stocks was up 7.53 at 557.17.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 08:42
BUFFORD (speed (warrens non-traditional commitment)) ID#253246:
The 1997 annual report would only list 1997 silver purchases

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 08:40
Mr. Mick (Donald, please tell me why Mozel, Pete, and others have left.........) ID#345321:
is it because of personality conflicts? or what? Thanks

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 08:31
Bully Beef (suspicious this has been the case in Canada for several years.) ID#259282:
I am a victim. Banks will also give you loans at prime rates to buy RSP 's in their family of funds or with the Brokerages that they own. I have to borrow every year to buy them. That is how I came to own Precious Metals.We get a rate of about 6% on our loan and if invested in equities you would get 12 to 50% return.The bank tells you not to pay off your mortgage but to beef up your RRSP's for the majic of compound interest. I'm heavy in PM's and REsources so took a 20% hit on the Res. and ## on the PM's.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 08:28
Ted (As the world turns) ID#330175:
mornin

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 08:25
JTF (Morning! An Egg? Where is the fountain? physics -- and lastly the LBMA.) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
aurator: So the answer to the riddle was an 'egg'. Please explain where the fountain is inside an egg. By the way, I must admit -- if one uses fuzzy logic reasoning, an egg is one of the most appropriate answers. Hard for me to do this.

My problem with fuzzy logic comes from my training -- have been taught to think in absolutes, not relative terms. So - golden apple is a golden apple -- crystal clear fountain is crystal clear fountain, etc.

Perhaps that is why much of the 'New Physics' will come from untrained minds, not ones such as mine that have been cluttered with highly structured analytical methods. I must always remind myself that the greatest advances in physics, ( and probably other sciences ) were made by those who had 'the mind of a child' -- such as Einstein.

I find it amusing that so many people think they understand the Eotvos experiment, or what gravity is -- or for that matter what causes a gyroscope to turn the way it does. Yes -- we have equations to explain all of this. But -- like much of physics that is all it is -- equations. The fundamental questions have not been answered.

I will never forget what one of my physics teachers said many years ago about a physics problem we had in graduate school: 'This equation gives you all you need to understand how to work with problem 'x''. But when someone asked him what all of it meant, or how he came up with the formula, he just smiled and said: 'Well, it gives the right answer, doesn't it?' He knew very well that the fundamental questions relating to that problem were not answered.

Ever think that a permanent magnet is an example of quantized, superconducting matter?

Back to topic -- I would be very interested in your comments about the LBMA as a clearing house for gold, where everyone keeps gold as their intermediate currency while very large, short term trades are completed. Given the recent US dollar instability, this might be very popular by very large, short-term traders. Should work with virtually any commodity -- a world-class 'black market' that avoids the use of the US dollar as an intermediary. Would also explain the discrepancy between F Veneroso, and LBMA figures.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 08:24
Speed (Donald_A @ Buffet Silver) ID#286199:
The link says Buffett only bought 111 million ounces of silver, not the 127 to 130 frequently posted in the news. He must have settled for cash on some of those contracts. It follows that somebody didn't have silver to deliver...hmmmmmm

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 08:20
IDT (Princeton Economics article on Japan and the Asian Crisis) ID#228128:
see at: http://www.pei-intl.com/hmeframe.htm

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 08:20
sharefin (What's the buzz - tell me what's a happening?) ID#284255:
-
Miles
Yes, been through a lot of Gary's articles.
Better put the gold into the keel of your yacht.
Just to keep it out of the way.
I'm still trying to get out of debt and lock in the profits.

I've never seen this site and Avid so quiet.
Makes me think something's going to happen soon.
Just can't quite see what it's going to be though.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Meanwhile the pyramid just keeps on growing.

Size of S.Korean debt rollover rises to $21.6 bln
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980314/korea_debt_2.html
SEOUL, March 14 ( Reuters ) - The amount of South Korean short-term debt which global creditors have agreed to roll-over into longer-term obligations has risen to $21.6 billion from $21.37 billion, a finance ministry official said on Saturday.

Following the increase, the percentage of the nation's short-term debts which will be rolled over under a deal with creditors announced on Friday rises to more than 95 percent
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://biz.yahoo.com/reports/world.html
Full of Indonesian news.

Crisis what crisis?

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 08:17
Mr. Mick (Donald - Thanks for the BH letter, here is the paragraph on silver for those...) ID#345321:
Copyright © 1998 Mr. Mick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
who don't want to read the whole letter:

Our second non-traditional commitment is in silver. Last year, we purchased 111.2 million
ounces. Marked to market, that position produced a pre-tax gain of $97.4 million for us in 1997. In
a way, this is a return to the past for me: Thirty years ago, I bought silver because I anticipated its
demonetization by the U.S. Government. Ever since, I have followed the metal's fundamentals but
not owned it. In recent years, bullion inventories have fallen materially, and last summer Charlie and I
concluded that a higher price would be needed to establish equilibrium between supply and demand.
Inflation expectations, it should be noted, play no part in our calculation of silver's value.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 08:17
Speed (Alan Greenspan model predicts stocks to go down) ID#286199:
Good article in Barron's today by Andrew Barry.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 08:12
Donald__A (Berkshire-Hathaway (Buffett) letter to shareholders 1997 (silver related)) ID#26793:
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1997.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 08:12
Suspicious (A Story, sad but true !) ID#287312:
Aparently new deregulations now allow banks to sell stocks and mutual funds. I met a fellow who went to work for a small town bank receintly selling mutual funds. In the last six weeks he claims to have moved 3 million dollars from CD's or savings accounts into mutual funds. The tellers at the bank are paid $20.00 to set-up appointments with the fund salesman.
This guy was as economicly as astute as my German Shepard. I assume that simular action is taking place country wide. Could the Dow go to 10,000.
I think maybe so. The comming disaster is growing worse every day.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 07:58
miles__A (sharefin) ID#351224:
Greetings...Have you read through Gary North's Year 2000 pages?
http://garynorth.com/y2k/search_.cfm
If only 25% of it is true then we are in for serious trouble.
Time to buy a yacht?

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 07:41
sharefin (3 hours between posts - something has to happen soon.) ID#284255:
is this a kitco record?

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 07:29
golddkm (Gold's indicisive action...) ID#432148:
may be fueled by the fact that European Union finance ministers and

central bank governors will meet in England on March 20th - 23rd. Issues

concerning the ECB will be discussed, and possibly the composition of its

reserves. Some news might be forthcoming as to whether gold should be

included in reserves, and if so, to what extent.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 04:28
HepMeMoney_Hmm (Probabilities) ID#39971:
http://www.hultsfred.se/users/j/js/pgg/UNITS.HTM

Sorrry.....my connection is slow.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 04:26
HepMeMoney_Hmm (Probabilities) ID#39971:
http://www.hultsfred.se/users/j/js/pgg/UNITS.HTM

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 04:16
aurator (I guess not -- HMMH is a palindromic simulacrum?) ID#257148:
appearances are deceptive.

Fun talking to you aurator
Nice talking to you too aurator.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 03:50
aurator (Ah;;;Life--- You are alive aren't you) ID#257148:
HMMH
Que?
which fortnight

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 03:47
HepMeMoney_Hmm (A ---fortnight) ID#39971:
http://californiacentralcoast.com/commun/map/civil/tl/timeline.html

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 03:36
aurator (Dolly, the first cloned sheep celebrated her first birthday today.) ID#257148:
This is a barrel of laughs. I'm unusually mute and there ain't noone else here.

Hello Dolly
Well Hello Dolly..


zzzz

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 02:10
fundaMETAList (Mozel) ID#341214:
Mozel: When I read your messages I am reminded of George Washington and the other Founding Fathers educating the colonists and bringing them out of their ignorance to a point where they would fight. That did not happen in a fortnight.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 02:07
snowbird (PETER LYNCH on Gold) ID#220325:
Http://www.worth.com/articles/Z9711EO1.html ( that may be the number 0 instead of the capitol O I typed )

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 02:03
fundaMETAList (RETIRED SOLDIER, Bulldog: Veterans Affairs and Y2K) ID#341214:
Copyright © 1998 fundaMETAList/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
RETIRED SOLDIER: Based on what I've read about the recent grades that Congressman Horn handed out I can confirm the news you got regarding Y2K compliance of the Department of Veterans Affairs. While the goverment got a D- overall and the DoD got a big fat F, Veterans improved from the last report from a C to an A. I think only 2 A's were given in something like 26 grades.

Assuming Y2K doesn't cause a total meltdown situation ( banks and/or electricity down the tubes ) your checks should keep on rolling. Since we have never been through anything like Y2K and nobody knows with any certainty what's coming, Bulldog's precautions make good sense.



Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 01:38
tolerant1 (mozel - It takes many minds to illuminate the Mansion that is Kitco.) ID#31868:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A government of our own is our natural right; and when a man seriously reflects on the precariousness of human affairs, he will become convinced, that it is infinitely wiser and safer, to form a constitution of our own in a cool deliberate manner, while we have it in our power, than to trust such an interesting event to time and chance. If we omit it now, some Massanello* may hereafter arise, who, laying hold of the popular disquietudes, may collect together the desperate and the discontented, and by assuming to themselves the powers of government, finally sweep away the liberties of the continent like a deluge.

Thomas Paine
Philadelphia, 1776

*Thomas Anello, otherwise Massanello, a fisherman of Naples, who after spiriting up his countryman in the public market place, against the oppression of the Spaniards, to whom the place was then subject, prompted them to revolt, and in the space of a day bacame King.



Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 00:59
aurator (Golden slumbers) ID#257148:
Ted Eldo
'nite fellas.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 00:58
Ted (hey,it's YOU) ID#330175:
Nite Aurator ( I'm burnt...to a crisp...but tomorrow is another day,huh ) --

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 00:56
Ted (I echo Eldorado(00:50)) ID#330175:
amen.....g'nite all from the 'far-east' coast~~~~~

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 00:54
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Goodnight all.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 00:53
aurator (Mo) ID#257148:
Eldo
Just spoke a whole lot of sense.

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 00:50
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Copyright © 1998 Eldorado/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mozel -- wherever you might be. Perhaps YOU need your rights read to you.

You have the right to remain silent.
You have the right to live in a cave.
You have the right to not listen to boneheads, or to take them somehow 'personally'.
You also have the right to look past 'them'.
You have the right to think that what you post is not getting through.
You have the right to quit!

However, do you really believe that quitting is the 'right' thing to do?
You have gained quite a number of curious listeners here; anxious and willing to hear! You have posted a lot of damn fine material here and a lot of people, with 'ears', have gained some very important information! You have NOT been posting in the 'blind'. NO WAY! I think it would be a damned shame if you really discontinued your discourse on a VERY important topic. Your knowledge and presentation doesn't come along very often, which makes it that much more important that you DO continue it. So, if I might admonish you, get thy wisdom back here! For some strange reason, I think that you have a virtual ( or is that virtuous ) duty to do so!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 00:47
Ted (RAY..........................................*go Gold*) ID#330175:
Have a good scrimage ( kick ass! ) --oh yeah,the name is Dub ( I think ) Jones ( Cleveland Browns in Lou Groza etc era ) ---Bert's father..eh!

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 00:38
Ted (Retired Soldier) ID#330175:
Thankx for the reply---I've done alot of photography work too..was just curious...

Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 00:17
cherokee__A (@----rod-serling---------) ID#344308:

preacher--

which country has recently persuaded their citizens to
donate their gold for the betterment of their country?
what happened to that gold? surely it is not being made
into icons.....maybe exchanged for icons ( us$ ) ........


Date: Sat Mar 14 1998 00:08
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Mooney -- Thanks for the last! Much appreciated. Always looking for 'perspectives'. You must do that more often! Yeah, that was me earlier. At least partly. Watch that sell stop at gold 287 though. It might barely more than 'tweak' it before reversing quickly! You might well be better off with a buy order there; at the very least temporarily.

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