Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:59
RJ (..... Warren Who? .....) ID#411259:


Thanks…….. I sent myself an e-mail………. I'm waitin' for that arrow……

Regarding Buffet: The big money NEVER shows their hand. Anything we know they knew first. If we hear what these big boys are up to, its already too late to take advantage of it.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:58
CC (DISNEY ) ID#334219:
( Revenue minus net income ) /production = average cost. !!!!!
Don't forget huge non-cash costs...mainly depletion. This is a big factor. NA gold stocks are not valued on net profits but more on cash flows. Cash flows allow them to buy other mines, explore and dicover new mine. A gold miner may sell at a P/E of 50, but still be selling at a Price/Cash Flow ratio of only $10. South Africans mines probably have very small non-cash costs. They have been there long before th NA Gold mines, therefore amortization and depletion have all been used up.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:58
KO (Myrmidon Poor man's gold) ID#270224:
Silver is now rich man's VALUE!!!!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:57
223 (IDT Buffet's delivery dates. One last post before bedtime) ID#26669:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:56
KO (IDT Thank God Warren does what he feels like!!) ID#270224:
Buffett buys what he thinks makes sense. He buys VALUE!!!

I repect him because he is flexible and buys bargains in any class.

The guy smells value!!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:54
Myrmidon (@ KO) ID#339212:

I can'nt identify debt free silver stocks. The two silver stocks I got in are SSC ( bought today ) and HL last week, adding more HL to my holdings.

Remember, silver is the poor man's gold - so I disagree that lots of silver will enter into the market which now is held from public. Some yes.

I think that Buffet will not be caught with his pants down like the Hunts did. This is SMART MONEY, which moves ahead of MASSES MONEY.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:54
John Disney__A (Good show all round) ID#24135:
For Myrmidon
I read with amusement someone's comments on your 1997 gold
production figures .. I think a partial listing of production
for 1997 is likely as 1997 only ended a while back and
statistics creatures move slowly. I also have faith in you to
the extent that you would not confuse 1987 production figures
with 1997 figures.
I find this personally annoying because I had a good
summary of gold production by country - I posted it in a few
weeks ago. Apparently no one read it - Nice going - In
meantime, I think I threw it away.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:54
neo fight (re: rj----he ain't heavy----who's my brother) ID#390179:
Too new to this game to know-----hope you're right. Got 60% in gold 40% in cash, the question is gold or silver.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:50
IDT (Silver best before of after March 1?) ID#228128:
Since futures contracts for March delivery expire the end of April, would we expect silver to be highest just prior to the first of March, or as Mike Sheller expects, just after March 1. Also, Warren Buffet's purchase of 130 million oz. just about equats the decline in Comex inventories over the past year. I presume that he has taken delivery on all 130 million oz. Perhaps not ( does anyone know? ) . So where is the silver conspiracy that M. Armstrong is talking about where several conspirators are bribing, hiding, silver all over the British countryside ?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:50
KO (My Dear John letter) ID#270224:
Thanks John. Prime made your good list.

Now cull your list anyway you like and give us debt free precious metals production anywhere in the world at current prices.

Thanks in advance for the anticipated effort!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:49
RJ (..... Hidden Silver ? .....) ID#411259:

Isure -

Count on it. I have been getting calls from clients who bought silver from my firm in the early 1980s. After all these years, they have written off ever making a profit, and $6+ silver looks awful tasty. I think the 6.80 - $7.00 range could shake loose a lot of this silver. Apart from what Barbie says, many people took delivery of 1000 oz weight hallmark bars - JM or Englehard, its all I trade. The stuff is deliverable to any user in the world. The effect of this silver on the market is impossible to predict. This whole shortage has been engineered and will vanish in a puff of smoke when its all over. There is no shortage of silver. Silver will still fly. That just the way it is.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:46
John Disney__A (What is going on here Part 1) ID#24135:
To All
Looked at more NA mimes last night - same procedure.
( Revenue minus net income ) /production = average cost.
Please comment. Is there something wrong there
Is that not average cost Nothing personal - just
numbers and costs. Just displaying 1997 costs on that
Amax 420
Battle Mountain 420
Getchell 495
Homestake 495
Newmont 403 ( extraord items - 298 prior year )
ABX 530 ( extr. items - 345 prior year )
Cambior 605
Echo bay 1065 ( extr. items - 670 prior year )
Kinross 440
Meridian 765 ( 455 prior year )
Pegasus 1723 ( 523 prior year )
Placer Dome 410
Prime Resource 337
Royal Oak 780
Teck 215 ( low as all byproduct credit charged to Gold )
TVX 525
William 740 ( only started )

Of all these Newmont is competitive. So is Prime
because of silver credit. Teck only looks good as
total byproduct credits charged to gold production.
If Barrick were in South Africa it would be classed
as a marginal. Also Most of these mines have Debt.
Im sometimes accused of being a propagandist. Not true.
Can someone else comment Is this a healthy industry
What am I missing How come brokerage houses are not
pointing this out to clients? Dont get mad. Im trying
to piece this together.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:44
KO (Myrmidon is my friend !!!) ID#270224:
Thanks I need a friend.

I am only interested in DEBT FREE silver production such as Prime.

The game - can you identify debt free silver producing stock ( s ) ?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:43
Thor (cef) ID#307360:

Does anyone know if cef is trading at a discount? ie: what is the NAV?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:42
KO (223 Forget guessing the price !!!) ID#270224:
It is obviously in short supply. Otherwise the price wouldn't go up.

Silver is going up because gold is too cheap and expensive gold mines shut down gold production and byproduct silver production.

Go ahead prove me wrong !!!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:41
Myrmidon (@ Ko - re:PRU) ID#339212:

Friend, I don't think debt matters. You want silver companies with a lot of debt for the leverage. Read previous posts.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:40
RJ (..... He ain't Heavy .....) ID#411259:

Heavy hitter @ Silver will not make the move in comparison to gold. The majority are being led to silver, but the real money will be made in gold.

Let's see. Silver has risen 60% in the last year, gold dropped 30%. I'm not sure how you define real money, but any bet on gold ( unless on the short side ) is real money in someone else's hand, while silver has already paid handsome profits.

Saying that silver will not move in comparison to gold, is kind of like saying the sun did not rise today. Even here in stormy California, we all know it did.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:40
Heavy Hitter (KO) ID#403159:
If Buffet bought silver how much gold do you think he owns? Much more than silver that is not public info. I can assure you. Soon the rest will be history.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:37
Isure (Silver) ID#368244:

Just a thought on silver, there are millons of ounces in private hands, some of it has been there for years. As the market reaches break even or close, expect this silver to come into the market , as many would be happy to come close to break even. Gold on the other hand has a long way to go before most would consider selling their phisical. Lot of folks got caught in the silver run up and will be happy to recover even a portion of their losses.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:37
223 (Silver $7.03 ?) ID#26669:
Maybe I need to revise my 18 month target for SSC upward. Any suggestions as to a number? Will check back tomorrow.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:37
A.Goose () ID#256254:
Last Updated Wed Feb 4 05:30:00 1998 CET

Description Value Change
Gold Spot 297.20 1.85 0.63%
Silver Spot 7.02 0.23 3.39%

As someone has mentioned before CEF is worth looking at ... 6,565,000 ounces of silver and 131,300 ounces of gold as of oct 31, 1997.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:36
GFD (Netscape Mail) ID#432166:
RJ: There will be a little green arrow beside the little envelope in the docking bar indicating mail waiting.

BTW: What is your take on Buffet. The big question in my mind is why announce now?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:36
Prometheus (@gold chart) ID#189273:
Been out hunting and found me some interesting charts and analysis.

One interesting day in the pits. Bye!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:36
KO (Farfel you need to do your homework.) ID#270224:
Prime sits on $120,000,000 in cash, produces 12 million ounces per in silver as the worlds fifth largest silver producer and an undercut 90% or more of world gold producers and make a profit way below $250 per ounce gold.

So what are you talking about.

Franco Nevada sits on a ton of cash, no exploration costs and has some of the lowest production cost gold in the world ( in some cases below $100 per ounce )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:31
RJ (..... Netscape Question .....) ID#411259:

I just moved from netscape 3 point something to 4.03. I used to get a little exclamation point in the bottom status bar of Netscape to let me know I had new e-mail. The new version has that cute little docking bar at the bottom now, but I see no indicator that I have mail. Can anyone help?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:30
KO (Now that my adrenaline is up lets have some Silver fun!!!) ID#270224:
If we are a group lets try to help each other out !!

The game: identify DEBT FREE silver rich stocks in any country.

I'll volunteer Prime Resources PRU on TSE.

Anyone care to volunteer other stocks?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:30
KO...if gold price falls too far and all these gold companies begin to collapse, then they will be GIVING AWAY their silver inventories for whatever price they can get.

Ergo, I believe your analysis is mistaken.

P.S. Now that Buffet is a major silver investor, do you think he will be as concerned about maintaining his hefty stake in your severely overvalued namesake ( KO, COCA COLA ) ? Hmmmm...makes you wonder, huh?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:29
The Hatt (Expect Defaults In Silver Market!!!!!!) ID#294232:
A default in the silver market will trigger the events that will lead to the truth on what has been happening in the PM markets and I am not unsure that is just what Buffet may be looking to do. It would not surprise me to see him announce a series of gold purchases once the facts are on the table re this pozi game called leasing! The game is now on and this announcement has helped the ever increasing BULLISH TREND OF PM.
We must all take a moment to thank the shorts who have chosen to sacrafice their capital in order to give us a long long ride up the capital gains highway!!!!!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:27
KO (Buffett is no Idiot) ID#270224:
He does his homework!!!

If he thinks silver is a bargain then he is probably right.

He doesn't give a damn about what people think.

He simply buys VALUE!!!!!!!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:26
neo fight (snowball---thanks for the effort--am hanging tough---waiting for things to snowball) ID#390179:
C'mon Aussies!!!!!!Gold is independence and independence is gold.
Constitutional Convention ay? Goodonya!!!!!!The yanks did it---200+years ago--betta late than neva.
But don't forget the right to big old grizzly bear arms.
Oh yeah, thanks to all---have learned so much in the last 3 months.
For all you silent lurkers---gain the faith---dow 10,000
Get real---you made your money, like me. The time has arrived to buck the trends.
Go gold!!!!!!!!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:25
Heavy Hitter (KO) ID#403159:
It is my personal opinon. The very wealthy always turn to gold and the big money will come from that sector. The gold will also be easier to trade as silver will have violent swings in both directions. Also gold has always been on firmer ground. Platinum I have also been buying as it may out perform all the others. The shorts in gold are also thru the sky.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:23
KO (Connection between Silver and Gold Price) ID#270224:
There is only one:

As gold proce drops silver goes up as gold mines with silver byproduct shut down.

As gold price goes up gold mines become profitable and silver output rises suggesting dropping silver price unless demand goes up.


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:22
Myrmidon...good luck.

As for myself, I must get onto the various tasks my wife demands of me ( yes, I do answer to a supervisor ) .

Tomorrow, I have a hunch there will be an explosion of interest in the PM markets...

We'll see.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:20
GFD (Read My Lips) ID#432166:
JTF,OURO__A, et al: Buffet is a strategic investor ( buy and hold ) . He is - read my lips - NOT A TRADER. I suspect he would be insulted at the idea that he would sell for 30% on a little blip. Look how long he held on to coke. The time he will sell will be when he decides that the very, very big picture says he could do better things with his money.

Count on him holding for years....

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:18
xau5 (AYORK) ID#201131:
Thanks for answering my question. I cant believe the average Korean would be giving in gold voluntarily. The numbers look way to large for this to Koreans doing this. I think it is a gold loan to get hard currency. bye

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:17
Myrmidon (@ Farfel) ID#339212:

Why are you amazed with today's SSC volume?

1/400 of it was due to my purchase!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:17
Birdman (Thank You Sharefin) ID#217217:
Thank you sharefin

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:12
Snowball ((@Myrmidon) ) ID#234217:
Thanks for the info. The thing that concerns me though is I heard there is a court ruling pending on the mining rights. Plus, they are still awaiting feasibility studies on the mines. Don't know when either is due, and haven't seen anything on them in awhile. Sure could make a difference. Guess that's why they call it speculating huh?

As always, all input appreciated.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:12
quion97 (GOLD UP) ID#23398:
1.87 TO 297.22 ( CNBC E )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:12
KO (Dear Heavy Hitter) ID#270224:
Try to explain why an INDUSTRIAL asset silver which is not controlled by central banks should not outperform gold, an asset whose value is definitely partially controlled by the activities of central banks.

Secondly, why shouldn't the supply of silver shrink as more and more gold mines shut down at current gold prices since they are uneconomical and lose their byproduct silver production?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:10
sharefin (Charts) ID#284250:
The swing chart I manually create in MS Excell.
Using the data from:
Market digest.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:03
JTF (Must do chores -- Yes WB is likely to sell into the rally slowly) ID#57232:
All: With such a big position, WB has no choice but to sell into a rally very slowly. Do you think his announcement means he is ready to begin selling?

Will see you all in the morning!! Happy trading!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:02
Myrmidon (@ Snowball) ID#339212:

One sure advantage TVX has with its presence in Greece is that the Greek drachma is overdue for a devaluation to at least 450 drx / $US from its current 290 level. This will result in lower production costs per oz. due to cheaper labor.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:02
sharefin (29 days to go?) ID#284250:
The week following could be quite dramatic.
I am seeing quite a lot of talk about the top in Feb and falling into March.
Guess we'll find out real soon.

Will Soros and Buffet cause a paradigm shift in investing?
Sound good for gold.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:02
Heavy Hitter (cherokee) ID#403159:
Glad to see your in gold. Silver will not make the move in comparison to gold. The majority are being led to silver, but the real money will be made in gold. Any pull backs in gold should be bought and not sold into. It's going to be quick and very nervous and you must ignore any down days no matter how bad it gets. Only those with nerves of steel will stick with it.
Be prepared for the worse and keep a bottle of scotch within reach. I for one are in very deep now. I just have to close my eyes if it turns down and take my medicine.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 23:00
STUDIO.R (@Commodity Gurus....) ID#93232:
When's the last time you saw a commodity go up 65+% in six months?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:58
quion97 (Sorry for the error) ID#23398:
The #,s next to the price is % down ie. TECK 64.050 down 26%

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:58
JTF (The public not in silver yet! Not even close! No one near me thinks the way I do!) ID#57232:
SilverBaron: If we are to have a full-blown panic up-type rally in silver, I think your reasoning would be correct. What I am concerned about is India. They could be big time sellers. What if Warren Buffet has not completed his buying, but will do it in two phases -- before and after India defaults! Maybe he decided to step up the announcement because he has learned that India will be defaulting very soon!

We might get hoodwinked by all the hype!

But -- if a buying frenzy begins, it will not matter will it! I doubt that we will have a buying frenzy for months or longer, and then only if something else -- big time inflation -- Presidential crisis -- Iraq crisis -- triggers it. IMHO.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:57
223 (1997 silver chart) ID#26669:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:56
TECK 64.050 26
AGNICO 59.75 35
KINROSS76.00 23
WILLIAN32.00 45


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:54
OURO__A (WB's selling price?- JTF) ID#237305:
Assuming that the statement announced is correct, WB has acquired most of his silver for the last 6 months @ a an average price of $5.25 ~ $5.35. When silver hits $6.90/ounce he'll be entering a 30% profit margin, which could start to signal a sell. He probably would release of silver slowly and based on a long term, just enough to keep market prices constant. Regardless, if one buys silver tomorrow, he will have the constant knowledge that WB may dump silver at any time in the market. Keep watching the Comex warehouse inventories, although we already know that that does not mean much at the $7.00/ounce level.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:53
223 (JTF et al theory about Indians) ID#26669:
I suspect we have the wrong idea about India selling, too. I have several Indian friends, many of whom still send money home to help their families. They describe a religion and culture which were ancient when we northern European types were still head hunters. They have a long temr outlook; one of my friends offered to teach me about Hinduism. He said that I should first learn Sanscrit, about 10 years worth, then he'd do so.

And they have a consensus about PMs. They accumulate them.

I think that if India falls on bad times some will have to sell their gold...the less well to do and prudent ones...and others will buy and little will leave the country. Those in the goldsmithing business will continue to turn over the product, using up bullion to make artifacts. Sure they will continue to sell artifacts to foreigners but they'll continue to turn a portion of their profits back to more bullion, which they will save. I think the bears would be very foolish to depend upon India selling more than it buys.



Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:53
Snowball (RE: Neo-Fight You're not wrong!!!! The price of gold may get a little lower, but you can bet ) ID#234217:
it won't be forever. Gold is at or near it's low and IT WILL COME BACK UP! Always has, always will. I'm no market analyst, and I can't read the highs and lows like most of the knowledgeable folks on the forum. I'm just trying to establish a decent position near, but not neccesarily at the low and then be patient. I'll add a little when the opportunity is there. Hopefully, I'll make a few bucks!! One thing about it, it's wild ride. I think the oil market is the same and it should be close to prime for it too! Keep the faith!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:52
How do you know Buffet doesn't want to see some weakness in some of his holdings?
Maybe he has been selling huge call positions on his various Dow holdings in advance of this silver announcement?
Maybe he hopes to reaccumulate stock in key investments when the DOW drops to the more reasonable level of say 6000?
Maybe that huge $9.00 surge in gold recently was effected through a Buffet proxy?
Maybe he would like to see some of his DOW holdings drop to a more reasonable level hand in hand with a surge in his PM investments?
The net effect: he is no less rich than before.

In other words, you can hypothesize all you want...but if I were to theorize, I would bet that Buffet is manipulating both the DOW and the PM markets simultaneously with the preceding aims in mind ( just as the CB's seem to be manipulating the gold market with reaccumulation in mind ) .

I sincerely doubt you will ever see gold at 280 again IMHO. The upside risk far outweighs the downside risk at this point.

In other words,

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:50
panda (JTF) ID#30116:
I sure hope that silver 'knows' something more than me ( which wouldn't be to hard... ) . It's been interesting watching silver do its' thing by its' lonesome without gold joining the party.

PMs tend to travel as a group, so this is unusual behavior. Then again, what do I know? Actually I do know something. Most news services or papers aren't worth the pulp or electrons that they're sent on. :- ) )

I was going to post a daily silver chart, but the ftp site took care of that idea. Just think, six months ago silver was under $4.50/oz. U.S. and now $7.00 ?

Kitco is running slow ( hmmmm... ) so I'm off to catch some ZZZzzzzzzzzzzzs. Good night all.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:50
jman (Buffet selling?) ID#251268:
I don,t imagine He is wasting any time worring about when to sell it will be the same thing that led him to buy the market,with that kinda phisical He doesn't have to sell at the top He can wait let the charts tell him then sell,the past history of silver suggest he will be holding until silver hits 50.oo or more,I would.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:49
JTF (Total Solar Eclipse Feb 26) ID#57232:
Sharefin: Anything on this date from your connections? Major turning point? I think the Monicagate stuff is too early, but the US markets may be topping soon. I think the 'no interest rate hike' news from the Fed is already factored in.

I think also that the Iraq stuff will smoulder while Madeline Albright tries to get her ducks together. Nearly impossible job I would think. BC is much more likely to fight a war by consensus than George Bush -- but he might 'up the ante'.

So if it is to be a downturn in the US markets, it will probably be some disclosure about gold, or the SEAsia financial crisis.

Another possible scenario is that Feb 26 might be a major turning point for gold!

Unfortunately this astronomical/tidal stuff does not tell you direction or magnitude of a market turning point ( or even which market ) , but --- only 'when' it will happen.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:48
cherokee__A (@----my-n-my-options-----me-n-my-options-------------) ID#333411:


i agree-buy with both hands and try to use your feet...........
i got 2 more dec'98 gold calls today when we were down
over $5...........damn i feel good!

got 22-gold many more can he go?
where's the lawn-mower and rake...........

lordy please allow maybe 1 or 2 more weeks, so i can buy
just a little more gold!

time is short...................

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:46
Bfiler (How's the party going over here at the Goldbug/Concpiracy...) ID#261267:

page? Hope y'all aren't missing out on the NEW TECH BULL.
If you ever get tired of watching gold beat its head against the wall
( I'm quite sure some of you enjoy it ) I'd jump into some calls on IOM
ADPT, CYMI to name a few. These stocks ARE going higher and will continue
on strong bull runs. Pick any January broken down tech and watch it fly!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:41
Silverbaron (JTF) ID#288295:

One thing to note, and I think it has been touched on here once or twice tonight, is that THE PUBLIC IS NOT YET IN THIS GAME, only pros and metals bugs - 99+++% of investors know absolutely NOTHING about the supply and demand fundamentals of silver and gold.

Something like the Buffett announcement will encourage all the other 'me-toos' to do the same, just as they have done in his other investments. A very small average reallocation to precious metals will cause a dramatic rise in price. Until you see silver or gold on the cover of Money Magazine, or the gold/silver price ratio hits 30 or 35, its probably still early in the game.

Since this move is so typically contrarian of Buffet's style, a natural thought from the public point of view might be: 'where else in the downtrodden markets has he been buying? Gold? Gold and Silver stocks? Uranium? Oil?

I agree with the view that he will not be quick to sell; this has not been his pattern.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:37
JTF (I was trying to be conservative -- but he does everything long term) ID#57232:
223: You are probably right -- any idea how high silver might go before he sells? I'm sure he is aware of the India situation.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:37
Heavy Hitter (Silver is the lining between Buffet and the gold bull) ID#403159:
The sparks coming off silver will lite the fireworks in the gold market. Gold
has been secretly accumlated by the elite class. The profits in silver will be chump change.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:36
Birdman (sharefin and charting) ID#217217:
Sharefin what software do you use for your charting. Where can you get it and for what price.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:36
OURO__A (JTF, you're right on track) ID#237305:
; )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:34
JTF (Buy!) ID#57232:
panda: I plan to buy more gold mutual funds tomorrow if gold is stable or down! I'm at 90% cash 10%gold mutual funds with my liquid assets. I think I'm ready to go to 20-30% gold mutual funds.

I think silver will be moving up too fast for me to add to my silver position -- which should have been much more than it was!

By the way, did you read the news that Monica Lewinsky went to the White House over 37 times since she took the 1996 job at the Pentagon? I wonder what she was doing that she said she didn't do? I also heard something about a security clearance. Did the FBI checkout her background, or was it just like the John Huang situation? I don't think she tried to sell F16's to the Riady's -- she was probably to occupied for that. Also, Charlie Trie turned himself in. Is John Huang next? He might return from China if he is given immunity -- now that would really be news!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:33
Really, some of my best friends hold silver, & Im'm not really prejudiced, but........Buffet didn't buy silver to turn the world upside down or trash the remaining 98% of his portfolio, which is supposed to include $2 billion in Zeros !
Buffet's statement, I think, can be taken merely at face value being in accord with his Graham Value approach to investing ! I believe he just concurrs with basic analysis stated many times on this forum that Ag is in short supply & undervalued. He did not buy the Ag to corner the market & artfully manipulate the price, as this is definitely not his style or his foot print. He is a long term value player. My guess is that he sees virtually no down side for Ag, but it does not tell us his target or his time horizon.
He is looking, he says, for a Higher equilibrium price, not a revolution. At that price, he will likly be a seller like all those in India who will come to market at this price or say at $7.

Question to all : If WB is a long term player in silver, why did he move up his announcement by 2 months ? Remember last year when he sought & recieved a special waiver from the SEC to delay & conceal his eqity holdings because his large position ostensibly had the potential for market disruption !
Believe me folks I'm overweighted in Ag, but I think we may be being carried away by this refreshing bit of unalloyed good news.

I have not heard any talk about XAU down 6.5% !
I think UBS KOREAN AU default & $7.5 dip in AU is both interesting & troubling.
If we head toward the $280 low there will be a major capitulation in AU & AU Stocks !
All, In My Insufferable Holy & Pontificating Opinion ( IMIHPO ) , OF COURSE !


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:32
farfel (@QUIXOTIC...YOU ARE CORRECT, SIR...) ID#28585:
My figures were intended to approximate a DAILY tabulation.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:32
sharefin (Allan ( USA )) ID#284250:
Swing chart updated:
Notice the red M/A oscillating in an ever decreasing pattern.
Shorter and shallower waves.
Soon we will have an explosive move as it sets it's direction.
I would guess down.

The Dow Ind from 1910 approx.

Good for a laugh.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:30
panda (ftp server down?) ID#30116:
Is the ftp server down for the count? It seems to be off-line more often than not of late...

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:28
Quixotic 1 (Gee...25%...that would be nice !!) ID#176235:
Farfel, your 22:14,
You indicate that a 25% stake of the equities market equals about $250 billion. My understanding is that every time the DOW moves up or down 1 point, equities gain or loose $1.128 billion respectively, at current price levels. This would place total capitalization at about $9.2 trillion. These figures have been referred to by the talking heads on CNBC during days of volatility. Just a little input, FWIW....

Gold for the good guys....GMJ

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:27
Birdman (Kiwi another bird) ID#217217:
Kiwi I do not have any other information apart from that I have gleaned on the net- rumours and the various recent news items such as derivative losses by UBS the suspicious merger with Credit Suisse etc. I do not work in the investment industry so do not have any personal contacts to dig for additional information. Oh and I am not an oxfordian I'm actually an itenerant geologist with no place to store his gold other than in a bank vault.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:27
223 (JTF) ID#26669:
I don't think Buffet will settle for a 30-40% profit. He's a long term trader. IMHO this silver is gone from the market for an indeterminable period.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:24
STUDIO.R (@vronsky......) ID#93232:
Fete' Ten.....chicken fried steak? Some of us might not be around for the Fete' 500. Hell, I just like tu? W. Buffett..keynote.......J. Buffett...entertainment.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:24
Ryter (JTF) ID#403277:
All: three cheers for JTF for his sensible, professional attitude, and above all, for his perennial courtesy. Of such is the stuff of real heroes.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:24
If you remember, back in '74, shortly after the announcement of the OPEC cartel's formation, oil stocks dramatically surged.

If you were not buying into that rally, then you missed the boat completely since oil stocks ( with a few exceptions ) never ever saw such low prices again.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:23
Isure (A tale of the poor mans gold) ID#368244:

In the year of our Lord, 1979, was my first experience with silver. I was 28 years of age at the time, and just started my second business, which was a small convenience store. I also sold gas that I purchased from a company owned by a man named H. L. Hunt. Some of you have heard of him I am sure. Well, to make a long story short, the man that serviced my store told me he had heard that Mr. Hunt was buying silver and thought I should try some. Even though I was pretty much in debt, I said what the heck, and I bought two $1000 bags of silver coins. I can't remember the exact price, but it was close to the bottom, the rest is history. Silver went to $50, I had truly stumbled upon a gold { in this case silver} mine. From that point on, I have been hooked. I own both silver and gold , some bought at prices much higher than today. I have never lost one minute of sleep over them. I always have the security of knowing they are there, and will one day be more valuable .

What has this got to do with anything? Simply this, in a falling market you must trade the swings to make money, as some of you have pointed out. But in a bottom market, one depressed over years, you have to be more patient. And yes, be prepared to see some sizeable down swings. This is where you have to ask yourself, how much do I believe this is at or close to a bottom, how much down side exists? I point this out only because maybe the uptrend will be slow and give you all the time in the world, but believe me it can mean the difference between real wealth and saying, Gosh if I had only been one day, or one week, earlier I would be sailing to Tahiti. How many of you expect to see these market conditions again, and if so how many times? THINK ABOUT IT, MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS.

Please excuse my writing skills, as I am not an author, just a business man. I hope I have made myself somewhat clear.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:22
panda (Doorstops....) ID#30116:
At $7 for silver, perhaps those paper weights and door stops may have some value after all?

Now, what to do about those heavier yellow paper weights

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:18
JTF (Never buy into a rally! I always lose when I do this!) ID#57232:
Dr. Bob: I am not one of the pros here, but I have invested in gold since 1993. I think if we knew the average price of the silver that W Buffet bought, we would have some idea of how high it would have to go up before he sells. I would guess that he would want a 30-40% profit. Another bullish point is that he tends to buy and hold -- he is no day trader, who will be trading and profiting on a short time scale -- he will likely hold on to what he has for months or longer after he has bought it.

I am not experienced enough to give you specifics about the above points -- just the guidelines above.

The last point is that you should never buy into a short term rally! You will not be able to get a stable price, and will very likely find yourself in negative territory fairly quickly. If you can, buy silver when it is trending down - perhaps after the next wave of buying. But -- if you do buy -- make sure you are not so high that people that bought during the time Warren Buffet bought are tempted to sell.

I personally think it is too early for silver to go 'out of sight' -- namely $10 or more -- but I could be wrong. I don't know when one of the biggest buyers -- India -- will start selling, but it might be above $7. One other thing to consider is that India may devalue soon. If it does, many Indians will sell their silver to make ends meet.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:18
STUDIO.R (@farfel.....not bad!....I agree....) ID#93232:
25% Equities= 2 Trillion US$

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:16
Earl () ID#227238:
This dramatic action in silver should begin to put some volatility premium into gold options as well. Those short calls may start itching to buy them back if things continue grow more crazy. We can hope, at least.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:16
Silverbaron (Dr.BOB @ PAASF) ID#288295:

Heads......BUY !

Tails......BUY !

( at the open )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:14
Let's see....if only 25% of equities ( approx. $250 billion or better ) transmutes itself into PM investment, then.....


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:08
Auric (Silver, mozel) ID#255151:

Damn, I KNEW I should have changed my handle to Argent™! mozel--Thanks for thoughts on KO LEAP puts.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 22:07
Silverbaron (CC @ FSR.V) ID#288295:

You may be correct; my statements are only based on what COULD happen, based on the possibility of having too many sellers. I think these shares were mostly created as 'money' to buy Mexican properties, and have had a substantial appreciation in their market value. Actually, I hope the price does dive so I can trade out some of my Russian exposure to a little closer to home.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:59
Dr. BOB (PAASF ) ID#270295:
Buying PAASF now could be a great move .... and it could also be buying at close to its top. What to do? what to do? ANSWER.. flip a siver coin!!!!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:58
Frustrated (farfel...thanks for...PGU=PSGQF) ID#298259:
Thanks, I've added both the Montreal and NASAQ symbols to my watchlist. And will be transferring my PGU shares to a broker which handles both the Canadian and NASAQ trading.

Apparently there is little or no activity for PSGQF as of yet while there is a reasonable volume in the Montreal market. I am still watching the Toronto market to see if trading resumes.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:58
True: There are 28M shares on FSR that will be free trading this month. Both they wont be dumped on the market.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:55
Pacific Northwest Dave (Ouch!! Turkey stock mkt, down 29.79% yesterday!) ID#223187:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:49
neo fight (sno-balls got balls like the neo fight) ID#390179:
totally new to this stuff-----the family says i'm crazy...but have done
quite well since abandoning status quo circa 1/15----but this is a wild ride like the waves in me why I'm right pronto, comprende?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:47
kiwi (birdperson...did an oxford education not teach you) ID#194311:
that a bird in hand is worth two in the bush
( or the bank for that matter )

Probably they will give you your gold if you ask for it...but these days information is almost better than gold, what info do you have?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:46
Digdeep (SILVERBARON) ID#267276:
Thanks for the info.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:41
Silverbaron (Digdeep) ID#288295:

In this case, there are 33 MM shares outstanding, but only 5 MM can freely trade at present. The other 28 MM shares were created in payment for acquisitions of reserves or actual mining properties, and are currently restricted from being sold until on or about Feb 15th. At that time the total number of shares available for sale on the market will increase dramatically to the 33MM total. This may mean nothing, or it could be a good opportunity ( if the price takes a dive ) to buy a real silver producer whose production costs are in the $2/oz range.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:35
Snowball (KMTMAN thanks for the reply.) ID#234218:
I'll check them out. Negative on the Steve. First name is Adrien, Okc, Ok.

Thanks again. I'm new at gold investments so I have to go on what little education I can pick up, instinct, and what just flat seems to make sense. Haven't done too bad, but plan to get better. One thing about it, it's damn exciting on the good days. Just like back in the oil boom.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:34
Birdman (Kiwi's comments on UBS) ID#217217:
Kiwi could you please email me re your comments on UBS gold loan default problem. I am in rather an ironic situation. I have been accumulating and holding gold through a UBS account!!!!!! Doooh. My email address is

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:31
HepMeMoney_Hmm (Silver do do) ID#39971:
Silver Bells........its ag. time in the city,

Ching a ching,here it ring,is that Silver you say?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:19
dirt ( ID#215379:
Now is our chance to load up on more gold and sell more US T-bonds

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:16
kiwi (Miro...don't worry I wasn't getting excited, not yet.) ID#194311:
Good point but as we see with stock prices right now there is really no limit to how much people will chase something that is perceived as a good investment regardless of it's intrinsic value.
A stock is a holding in a company which may or may not yield a decent interest but if it is perceived as going higher the market will chase just adds to the fervour if you can say this company makes widgetwhackers or it does funky things on the Internet.

The mania in the stock markets will end up in only one place...commodities. As people jump in prices will rise fulfilling the expectation, only difference is that when they crash you really are left with a chunk of stuff...that has a few ornamental. industrial uses. Then it sinks in that perhaps stocks are better for growth expectations...just not that much better as than what is paid for them now.

The DOW/Gold ratio is perhaps the most telling indicator as gold uses haven't changed that much since the inception of the stock market and listed companies still do what they do...generate profits.

NJ; sorry have to keep my own butt out of the dragon's fiery breath

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:16
Nick@C () ID#393224:
Miro---just did a quick perusal of the last few hours posts.

Your 19:08 is my vote for the best of the lot. Cheers, Nick

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:15
I agree that mutual fund managers are unlikely to make radical changes in their strategies on the basis of the Buffet move.

On the other hand, Buffet disciples individually may go against their mutual fund managers, withdraw their monies, and directly invest in the metal IMHO.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:11
arden (comex gold warehouse stocks - and Arden's spin!) ID#201238:
A. Goose -eligible comex gold warehouse stocks were 139,755 oz today. Registered stocks were at 305,481 oz which total 445,236 oz.

If you will notice, only about 1/4 of the comex gold stocks are pledged against the outstanding contracts, roughly less that .8 ounces of gold for each 100 oz comex contract! Yet, if you look at my earlier post, much more of the silver in Comex warehouses ( if its there? oops, not spoosed to say that! ) is pledged for delivery against outstanding comex contracts. But all of the press is looking at the drop in comex silver stocks!!! Interesting?

What will happen when the media starts to pay attention to this ludicrous situation in gold? I don't know, but it will be interesting!

I am still having problems with my msn email and would appreciate a note to

If you want to see what I really think, you could go to the site of the formerly handsome bird, now apparently a dirty bird at this site ( my favorite commodity ( gold ) and the national emblem of the US ( not turkey! ) . Scroll down and click on the banner.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:11
Digdeep (Float) ID#267276:
Could you please explain the function of the amount of shares floated, and its relation to shares issued. For example if a company had 30 shares and a float of 20 shares what would that mean. Thanks

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:09
Dr. BOB (silver off the chart!!!!!) ID#270295:
http:///silver.graph.html AWESOME!!!!!!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:07
Heavy Hitter (BIG BUCKS) ID#403159:
PM's doorway won't be big enough for the herd. Please remember the public and majority of investors don't own P.M's. Who's left to buy? The majority. If you are lucky enough you might just get in tomarrow. Buy with both hands and feet on the open and just close your eyes. I for one will
be adding to my holdings on the open with alot of luck. If the prices are down it will be a gift. Keep your eyes on the road.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:06
Silverbaron (WARNING on FSR.V) ID#288295:

If you own First Silver Reserve ( Vancouver ) or are thinking of buying to catch the silver spike:

If my memory is correct, the current share float is 5MM shares, But 28 MM more ( currently restricted ) shares can come to market on or about Feb 15th.... Don't get trapped if the new shares are sold and the price collapses from the profit taking.

If this information is incorrect please let me know; I'm planning on buying this one the dip, if it happens. Thanks!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:04
OURO__A (Ready for the ride?) ID#237305:
I have been analyzing the metals for a while and taking some small profits in the Silver market with short term investments lately. Today I sold my silver positions @ $6.65/ounce like any other silver surge and I was quite glad with the profits. I was hoping to see a price correction soon and hoping to jump back in to the silver market tomorrow or Thursday. But after the Warren B's news I've realized that I'm not quite well informed about the silver market and I've been quite lucky so far. Silver could be quite risky now since a huge amount of silver is being held by only a few fingers. When I first heard about the news I thought that silver was going to plunge, but instead its currently trading @ 6.97/ounce in Sydney, and all based on one's reputation. I'm quite curious about what's going to happen tomorrow. I'll be watching the silver market closely and somewhat skeptical. The fundamentals for the silver have been very strong and more promising than any gold investment. From now on I'll be keeping my gold a little bit closer to me…

Hold on to your hats, 'cause it'll be quite a ride…

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 21:00
KMTMAN@VANCOUVER (To Snowball is your first name steve?) ID#270315:
I can't help you out with tvx however you may wan't to consider ELD on TSE.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:57
OURO__A (Ready for the ride?) ID#237305:
I have been analyzing the metals for a while and taking some small profits in the Silver market with short term investments lately. Today I sold my silver positions @ $6.65/ounce like any other silver surge and I was quite glad with the profits. I was hoping to see a price correction soon and hoping to jump back in to the silver market tomorrow or Thursday. But after the Warren B's news I've realized that I'm not quite well informed about the silver market and I've been quite lucky so far. Silver could be quite risky now since a huge amount of silver is being held by only a few fingers. When I first heard about the news I thought that silver was going to plunge, but instead its currently trading @ 6.97/ounce in Sydney, and all based on one's reputation. I'm quite curious about what's going to happen tomorrow. I'll be watching the silver market closely and somewhat skeptical. The fundamentals for the silver have been very strong and more promising than any gold investment. From now on I'll be keeping my gold a little bit closer to me…

Hold on to your hats, 'cause it'll be quite a ride…

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:55
Barb Hughes (@ALL) ID#20783:

Looks like Bart's Silver Suggestion ----Sell your physicals & buy the futures because of the Backwardation was 200% on the money. We all have to realize that the physical silver, we have ( Bars, Coins, & Medallions ) IS NOT SPOT SILVER. It is SCRAP Silver needing to be refined into Deliverable Silver.

Take care…Barb

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:53
Digdeep (Question?) ID#267276:
Does anyone have any comments on FCX ( freeport Mcmoran ) I know there is trouble in indonesia, but fundamentals look real good.
Also any info on UPR ( Union Pacific Resources ) a large gas company with vast holdings. I read while surfing gold companies that RGLD ( Royal Gold ) is doing exploration on their property in Wyoming and Colorado. Any info or ups or downs would be great. Thanks

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:49
Miro (@Kiwi on Buffet's silver bullet) ID#347457:
Kiwi, don’t want to spoil your excitement, but I don’t think that the scenario of all mutual fund managers chasing silver will play. You can not chase $5billion market with trillion dollars. If you were the fund manager and fund is making money, it will attracts new investors/money, but, you can not be throwing the money at market which is cornered.
Buffet made a smart move, however, read the words in the announcement - they believed that ''the equilibrium between supply and demand was only likely to be established by a somewhat higher price.'' That did not mean 10 times higher price. They made their move, will take their profit, but that act will be hard to follow. Don’t take me wrong, it was very positive move for silver and everybody in it will profit, however don’t expect that trillion of dollars will be flowing into that market and the price will shoot 100 times up. If you followed Buffet investment strategies, it was not gambling and speculating to corner the market, it was a very disciplined approach, analyzing the market and making the move at right time. He did not frowned at bonds, nor blue chip stocks, he did not expect to double his money every year, he just wanted to be sure that he makes profit instead of loosing money.

BTW, LGB - good for you, how the heck did you know what was Buffet’s thinking? ;- )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:49
Ted (EB............................) ID#330175:
It's only yer imagination

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:48
JTF (George Soros and Warren Buffet! and edited version of todays USAgold comments) ID#57232:
All: We all know what happened in 1993 when G Soros and J Goldsmith bought gold and gold stocks! Warren Buffet is revered by the market by few others. After tonight, the troops will be buying silver, and a major shift to precious metals will begin in earnest.

Does any one know how much gold/gold stocks GS and WB bought? They would buy entire gold mines at fire sale prices of dollars/oz, I would think. Or is this still a secret? Perhaps they will use their silver profits to buy gold/goldstocks, but I doubt it. They probably know what will happen to gold next, and they at least have a small stake in gold, just in case the rally begins earlier than expected.

I have a question to everyone -- only a few days ago the Australian gold markets went up 6% in one day, based on the rumor that a South Korean gold firm defaulted on 400 tonnes of gold ( UBS-linked? ) . Then we hear nothing, and the gold markets are quiet. Now, gold goes down because Korea is selling 170 tonnes of gold -- but no not really because S Korea wants to wait till the price of gold rises before it sells. Now, if UBS has to buy hundreds of tonnes of gold to cover the S. Korean defaults, what better approach than to push gold down with rumors of some kind ( or other maneuver ) , buy the 400 tonnes of gold, and then sell it to whoever loaned it back in the first place. If gold can be pushed down low enough, the shorts in this deal will stiil make some money, and will be able to return the gold to its rightful owner. Given the determination of the 'powers that be' to debunk gold, this scenario would fit in with the weakening consensus goal to keep gold prices down!

I wonder -- could the G Soros and W Buffet business be the deathknell to this scheme, and the gold shorts get wiped out tomorrow? This will be interesting, regardless of whether you believe this or not. It will be interesting to see if in a few months or so, UBS reports more losses.

I wish I had bought more PAASF!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:47
NJ (kiwi) ID#20748:
I have a strong interest in the UBS story. Can you please post back up source or E-Mail me at

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:45
EB (whoa silver!) ID#22956:
BIG MOVE JUST NOW? or is it my imagination!? watch the spike

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:44
STUDIO.R (@Say Good Night Andy...Good Night!..... Say Good Night UBS!....Good Night!) ID#93232:
This is what a bullion bank failure looks like....take notes...Where's the,GOLD!!!! OHMY!@@@#$%^^&* Burn Baby Burn. Andy you deserved this you dirty bastard.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:43
Also, trading on Montreal under symbol PGU.

Good news: convertible bondholders have rep on bankruptcy committee.
They will want to ensure that an active, viable market exits for PGU common shares.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:43
D.A. (a.thought.on.PEI) ID#7568:

500 contracts is 2.5 million ounces. This is chump change for these guys.

If PEI is short, and I believe that they are, the number is more likely to be in the 5000 range or 25 million ounces. In reading Armstrongs musings on silver he does make the point that 6.90 is major resistance and anything above would signal the begining of a big rise. I would not be surprised to find him short up to 7.00 and then covered thereafter in the options market.

There are other rumors that I have heard from reliable sources which posit the existance of about 50 million ounces of calls on the physical between the 650 and 7.00 level due in the May period. Since Buffets silver is apparently deliverable by the first week of March, this new load would be unaccounted for.

I suspect we will be hearing from the Comex in the not too distant future re margin requirements increasing. March delivery period is going to be a testy one.

And to all a good night.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:42
A.Goose () ID#256254:
Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:55
arden ( eligible comex SILVER stocks ) ID#201238:

Thanks arden. Could you give the same information for gold.

Thanks in advance. Glad your computer and its software is finally back together. Gates truly rips us off.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:40
kuston (Thank You D.A.!!!) ID#273227:
Thank you D.A.!

I wish someone would of answered my Buffet question on 1/31. Doesn't anyone read the night posts?

thanks again.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:39
EB (...............) ID#22956:
hmmmmmmmmm....nice move in gold today. turned the free trade. where will it go? i think i know. either way now will profit, and it's free. and silver, nice. encouraging buffett stuff. when to take profits... hmmmmmm... lgb, are you in on this with buffett, not jimmy..dude. are you dry? hell of a storm, eh? almost 9 inches in two days ( only what my rain gauge could catch, raining mostly sideways from the wind ) . we are not cut out to handle the deluge. i am posting from my row boat. merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily, life is but a river. go silver. go plat. ted, lakers in 6. oh my. no email yet, just got power back on from last night. frazzled. higher ground

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:36
farfel (@D.A. RE: 20:07 POST...VERY SHARP ANALYSIS.) ID#28585:
You've hit the nail on the nose.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:34
Snowball (Looks like this is the week to BUY before it hits the moon!!!) ID#234218:

I am planning to take advantage of this brief dip in gold and gold shares to increase improve my holdings. I have been considering either increasing my position in TVX or acquiring some Kinross stocks. Both appear to be in a good position, but I'm a little standoffish with TVX's situation in Greece.

Would appreciate any opinions, or insights on either. I would particularly appreciate any input on TVX relating to possible court rulings and/or feasibility studies.

As usual, I appreciate everyone's postings. Sure am glad some of the personal wars have subsided. MAN, if people can't get along on a chat line with mutual interests, you can imagine how hard it is between entire nations.
Life is too short for it. ( and getting shorter!!! )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:31
Frustrated (PGU...back data needed...maybe farfel has some...?) ID#298259:
Am I the only one that didn't know that PGU was still trading on the Montreal exchange...duh?

If there is anyone who has some back daily data on volume traded and closing prices for PGU on the Montreal exchange for the past few weeks, I would greatly appreciate your e-mailing me at with any info you have. Thanks in advance.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:28
kiwi (UBS insider source leaked all over me...bastard.) ID#194311:
UBS in the tanker for $4 billion on derivative paper ( bogus ) gold loan plays.
Merger with SBC-Warburg will cover up the losses and the shame of a major Swiss bank getting caught short selling...of all things... GOLD.

London bankers facing the axe in their thousands facing the wrath of the Swiss owners at getting sucked into computer money games.
Need a job Andy Smith...Mark?

I only say don sell wha ya don haf.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:27
Donald__A (UBS says rumors of derivative losses are false) ID#26793:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:22
vronsky (THE 800 POUND GORILLA) ID#426220:

The name of Ted Butler's brilliant rebuttal of Martin Armstong's
biased report on SILVER is THE 800 POUND GORILLA.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:11


- As the price of silver hits a nine-year high and supplies hit new lows, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway said it owns 129.7 million ounces of silver that it purchased in a six-month period between July 1997 and January 1998.

Reportedly, Princeton Economics International is SHORT 500 SILVER CONTRACTS. Just recently, PEI issued an extremely BIASED OPINION - IMHO - about Silver. However, Ted Butler posted a scathing and insightful report discrediting the Martin Armstrong negative point of view with respect to Silver. Apparently AND VERY OBVIOUSLY the market and this century’s FINANCIAL GURU, Warren Buffet, are definitely NOT in accord with Armstrong’s slanted view.

Ted Butler’s brilliant Silver Rebuttal may be read at the golden-eagle website ( that’s gold WITHOUT THE “en” added by prejudicial programming {:- ) ) )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:11
Psilver Psyched (lenaxe) ID#216217:
I believe $1.50

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:11
Psilver Psyched (lenaxe) ID#216217:
I belive $1.50

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:10
sharefin (The melting pot.) ID#284250: Quotes
MARKET UPDATE ( 02/3/98 ) PM-----Well, we keep saying we'll update you if anything happens and today we will actually do that................The various new services tell us that the gold market sold off precipitously today because the Korean government collected 170 or so tons of gold. The implication is that they will sell it. I am at this moment looking at a Bridge News report dated 1/20/98 saying that the Bank of Korea is likely to buy for its own account the gold collected from the Korean people. A Korean central bank official in the same report stressed that it would not be sensible to flood the market now as this would not be sensible to flood the market now as this would reduce the amount of dollars BOK would get in return. At the same time over the weekend, a report surfaced in Sydney, Australia and published by a Sydney newspaper that there were rumors coming out of New York that a major Swiss bank ( was ) being forced to buy large amounts of gold to cover a Korean corporation's default on a gold loan. And that several gold loans to Korea were on the verge of default, which would mean hundreds of tonnes of gold would need to be bought in the spot market by Swiss and Dutch banks to cover their loans with central banks. That's HUNDREDS ( ! ) OF TONS!. Keep in mind that Australia tanked the market be selling 150 tons. There are two important aspects to these statements that I would like to bring to your attention. First, note that a Swiss bank was now in the position of buying the gold, not the defaulting Korean corporation. Why is that? Did the Swiss corporation, presumably a bullion bank, gaurantee the loan. I think the answer is yes. Second, note that hundreds of tonnes of gold would need to be purchased in the SPOT MARKET to cover the loan. Today the spot silver market skyrocketed 36.7¢ and gold went down $7.60. Could it be that this bullion bank along with the central banks mentioned are on the hook for a large amount of gold that they feared would have to be purchased at rapidly escalating prices. After all, many analysts were of the belief late last week that we were in the midst of a strong uptrend. Silver goes with the trend and gold tanks. What happened Is it possible that some major players are running gold down on paper to buy physicals cheap to cover those shorts. I leave these questions to your own thought processes. If all this true, though, the most conspicuous conclusion one could draw is that if it is the case the short-siders are playing for time. If the sellers are few and far between, which is my suspicion, today's market action might be short-lived ( though I wouldn't be surprised to see carryover in tomorrow's early action ) . I hold to the idea that gold is scarce and that the shortage is being masked as a surplus -- a reality that I believe will surface some day -- perhaps soon..................The only other explananation I can find for today's downside is a major seller ( central bank? ) waiting to be announced, but most of the information we have been able to gather in recent weeks mitigates against that possiblity. If anything surfaces, we will update.

LATE NEWS FLASH!!! CNBC just reported that multi-billionaire financiers, George Soros and Warren Buffet, have purchased one million ounces of physical silver. It was also announced that Warren Buffett, through his holding company, Berkshire-Hathaway, has accumulated 130 million ounces of silver beginning in July 1997 through January 12, 1998. Some analysts put this amount at 20% of the known silver reserves. Perhaps this explains why silver jumped 36 cents today to a fresh new high on the COMEX, and why silver is now trading at $6.78-- up another 17 cents in the aftermarket. We have also heard that these two gentleman are buying physical gold as well, but we could not comment on it until the news of their silver purchase broke. Watch out tomorrow. Prices could skyrocket on all metals, but especially gold as the shortsellers get caught on the wrong side of the market.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:09
lenaxe (SHORT SILVER) ID#31581:
I had the opportunity to read Michael Armstrong's article about why silver might go down below $4.00/ounce. It was an amazing piece of journalism which left me incredulous. Here was an obviously intelligent individual talking himself into a conclusion that he clearly wanted to come to irrespective of the supply demand factors that exist. In other words, the conclusion dictated the opinions expressed and the facts included in the article. I wonder what the short sellers of silver are thinking tonight. I'm sure that most won't sleep well. BTW what is the limit up/down for silver on the Comex?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 20:07
D.A. (major.tidal.change) ID#7568:

I think you have hit the nail right on the head. Beyond the short term implications for the silver market, this Buffet move could spawn something very large. My argument for the past few years has been that the relative amount of paper wealth ( bonds ) to tangible physical wealth ( all manner of stuff ) has never been greater. At some point, someone with massive quantities of the paper stuff would decide to shift some portion into physical stuff. When this occured we would get investment led inflation, a phenomenon heretofore unknown. Because the pond is so very, very small on the physical side of the wealth equation, a relatively small shift into this arena could cause massive ripples.

The pychological implications of a Buffet being the one to step in are enormous. Buffet has been the investment icon for this bull run. His views on the market and investing are taken as gospel. As you have stated, with one small move he has legitimized the entire concept of commodities as a store of wealth. With the worldwide investment community having bought into the deflation story and all that it entails, this is going rock more than a few boats. I have the distinct feeling that marketing our long only commodity system is going to get a hell of a lot easier.

I am in agreement with you that this should be the scariest time for the central banks. This ought to be the thing that they fear the most for it is the only thing that could really end the game. The game has always been to keep the debt pyramid growing. The threat has never, nor will it ever be deflation. Deflation does not send people scurrying from bonds but too them with open arms. Those that worry about default forget that the bonds are denominated in stuff of which the CB's have endless supply.

This is very cool.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:59
The Hatt (Silver to lead Gold Higher!!!!!!!!!!!!) ID#294232:
Silver will give us a preview of what is to come in the Gold Market as uncovered shorts scramble to cover prior to Defaults! The paper game is over and further investigation into the trading practices in Gold and Silver will now shine light on the ponzi game that we have all lived with for the last few years. The rubber meets the pavement!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:56
kiwi (Buffet's silver bullet) ID#194311:
What is obvious now is that with only a small outlay you can own a huge chunk of a commodity....commodities are cheap.
When all the electronic money heads now towards real stuff the chase will be on for real.
How many fund managers will be salivating at Buffets windfall and eargerly looking for the same...heck 10-20% of the trillions in stock and currency derivative markets now will begin looking for a home...the worm has turned hang on for the upward spiral...who knows where this twister is gonna plonk us....OZ ?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:55
arden (eligible comex SILVER stocks) ID#201238:

GFD - eligible comex silver stocks are 69,266,623 oz. registered silver stocks are 34,511,466 oz which total 103,785,089 oz.

To All - Bill Gates has forced me to upgrade my computer! Hopefully now I can access this site quickly and get back to posting on a more regular basis.

I have had some email problems and would appreciate anyone sending me a note at Thank you.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:54
SSC stock did unusually high volume today...suggesting insider knowledge of Buffet announcement.

SSC called this year's silver move to a tee. Expect tremendous earnings report.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:50
Mike Sheller (SILVER) ID#347447:
May I reiterate what I have been saying for a couple of months now: Silver past 6.40 means next resistance at $7.75ish.
Early March will see a spike that could take us to 9.80 best case.
Hang on sloopies!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:49
kiwi (Sorry ...Buffet news here...should be.) ID#194311:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:41
kiwi (Buffet's smoking gun...cornered 20% of supply with 2% of his portfolio.) ID#194311:
what happens when a few of the herd funds get wind of this...?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:40
STUDIO.R (@Fellow Cowhands.....) ID#93232:
Ever seen the birth of a beautiful bull calf? What a remarkable sight!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:38
Certainly, it seems more than likely that the legions of Buffet disciples will want to coattail on their guru's silver investment.

However, since so many of these individuals are fully invested ( if not on margin ) , then it seems likely they will be compelled to sell some of their not so stellar DOW investments ( e.g. Coke, P & G, MacDonald's, etc. ) in order to get a piece of the hot silver action.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:38
Certainly, it seems more than likely that the legions of Buffet disciples will want to coattail on their guru's silver investment.

However, since so many of these individuals are fully invested ( if not on margin ) , then it seems likely they will be compelled to sell some of their not so stellar DOW investments ( e.g. Coke, P & G, MacDonald's, etc. ) in order to get a piece of the hot silver action.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:32
TYoung (cnbceurope-6:30CST) ID#317193:
G-297.10 S-6.94 Tom

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:32
TYoung (cnbceurope-5:30CST) ID#317193:
G-297.10 S-6.94 Tom

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:28
MKVI (Kaplan site) ID#347185:
I'm guessing that there's a subsciber only site

Would love to have the text of whatever article.

People have heard it from me enough, hearing it
from ( about ) WB might make a better impression.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:27
kiwi (Phit hit the Silver Shan!) ID#194311:
Somebody is toasted...UBSwissies?

Gold support at $295

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:24
Delphi (@chevy (Yesterdays sell signal)) ID#258129:
If it is addressed to me, I have posted sell signals on Sun Jan 25 1998 16:08 and Mon Jan 26 1998 13:15 Kitco time, last one with one of my charts

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:19
Delphi (@chevy (Yesterdays sell signal)) ID#258129:
If it is addressed to me, I have posted sell signals on Sun Jan 25 1998 16:08 and Mon Jan 26 1998 13:15 Kitco time, last one with one of my charts

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:09
GFD (Eligible Silver) ID#424345:
Realistic, D.A.: Do you know how much of the remaining COMEX stockpiles are eligible

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:09
GFD (Eligible) ID#424345:
Realistic, D.A.: Do you know how much of the remaining COMEX stockpiles are eligible

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:08
Miro (Short or long you better be busy in this market) ID#347457:
If I learned something in this PM market, it would be that you can not just put money into it and sit without paying attention. In my past investment experiences, I mostly spread money into multiple sectors and let it sit for a while. In PM market I learned the hard way that you can’t do that. The market is too volatile, cycles are short, and until that big wave comes in, you better trade as one busy critter to keep you profits.

I enjoyed the short upswing this month but I am glad that I pulled all my money from Fidelity PM mutual fund this morning. Sorry guys, I can’t go for that ‘lets show the rest of the investment world our dedication and show them that we can ride the storm’. It would be a zero gain game. As soon as we pass the bottom, and start going up, I’ll be back in. At this time, I am just enjoying some run up in technology stox so I can have some more money for joining another up-cycle in PM funds.

Don’t dwell too much on justifying why the financial markets are screwed up, stox are overvalued, and gold must eventually go up. It will, but don’t keep loosing your money in between. Don’t worry about missing a few days of profiting when the market turns up. If you protect you money when market goes down, you won’t miss anything, and if all gains were supposed to be made in the first few days, it would not be the rally worth talking about.

Investment better be separated from emotional feelings. That’s where the most gold bugs fail.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:07
Lou_Jan (SILVER STOCKS?) ID#316269:
Since I'm the new kid on the metals
block and have committed a large % of
my portfolio to the gold/silver stocks,
I was quite dissapointed to note that
there wasn't any upward movement
generated in such stocks as CDE or
PAASF. Could anyone explain the
disdain for silver stocks in a heating
up market?

Would really appreciate any commentaries.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:05
GFD (Lease Rates) ID#424345:
Realistic: Where do you get your lease rates. Much Thanks!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:03
tolerant1 (Avalon) ID#31868:
Saw your post.

Everyone is feeling pretty. I

truly want to kill that french bastard, however, Stevie has summoned me to the park, he tells me there is a rythm, music truly heals that which pains us all.

Camdesuss will not sit at my table.

I will use Camdesuss's spine for a toothpick.

I am William Wallace's revenge.

I never forget those that have died for the golden wish each of us know. Therer are no bitten apples in my world.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 19:02
Psilver Psyched (Silverbaron & PAASF) ID#216217:
I do not dispute any of your data. The model however cannot accurately predict behavior where the company has never traded before. Although silver was higher some time ago, the reserves of PAASF were not the same as today. I guess we'll have to wait and see! I hope we get to find out !

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:59
lenaxe (Warren Buffet & Silver) ID#263184:
This probably sounds silly, but I would not be surprised if the announcement of Buffet's purchasing a large quantity of silver proves to be the catalyst that starts moving the precious metals markets. The fundamentals for silver are clear, but the movement of the stocks to date have been disappointing. I'm wondering if the people who commenced the lawsuit last week against Phibro are considering adding Mr. Buffet as a defendant. After all, Mr. Buffet intends to take delivery according to the report.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:59
STUDIO.R (Do not fall for gold's sucker move....) ID#93232:
The Korean gold will find a welcome home in the UBS vault. UBS's gold short position is large enough to put the combined bank ( SwissBank/UBS ) in a negative equity position. S. Korea and UBS are working in concert to weaken the strengthening gold market to cover their position...they will fail. They are both playing for their economic existence. S.Korea is a major debtor to UBS/Swiss.

Do not fall for this beautifully-orchestrated disinformation. And do not forget the Swiss Bank being greatly short their reported gold Comex inventory and their subsequent vault closure. This is a very critical banking situation with potentionally great and severe worldwide banking consequences. The Swiss blew it...and lying is their specialty.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:58
Realistic (Silver lease rates) ID#410194:
Silver lease rates soared to around 25% today.

A sign of extraordinary stocks tightness.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:58
Mr. Smith (@farfel and keeping the ol chin up) ID#347333:
well put farfel, your message rings true. This is a time to look to a bright future in gold. The worlds economies are poised for the new millenium. The countries of the world are poised to eliminate the last vestages of human conflict. In 50 years, life on earth will have a whole new shape. Those who are taking the derivative of the world's everyday actions are the ones who can see what is around the next corner. Those who are integrating their acquired data are the ones who will prosper. Those who have been piecing the puzzle together correctly have arrived at the conclusion--it is now time for precious metals investment.

As to the conspiracy of Central Banks to depress the price of gold and the effect they have had in the marketplace, well, who knows. Point taken-they have no logical interest to unload financial reserves when ( a ) there is no financial reason to do so, and ( b ) the financial gain cannot be justified.

It has become increasingly simple for me to see what is going on in the market: with every year that we have progressed towards the start of the EMU, the anticipation in the market has become more and more frenzied. There is excitement! It is electric! There is no question in my mind that this global economic shift that all the wallstreet suits are talking about is the shift in the economic balance of power that will occur when the EMU moves into play.

Make sure your money is in a golden vehicle before summer. It should be quite a ride!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:56
chevy (Yesterdays sell signal) ID#287358:

I called the gold sell signal friday and monday. Just wanted to go on record.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:56
If I were a guy in a mutual fund holding key, over-valued, Buffett investments ( like Coke at 45 times P/E or Disney at 43 times P/E ) ...and I pick up the paper tomorrow and discover my investment hero is now a major PM investor, I think I might have a major panic attack, throw up my scrambled eggs, and call my mutual fund manager with one word echoing in my mind.


Then I immediately would phone my broker and shout more THREE distinct words at him.


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:52
GFD (Maximum Squeeeeze) ID#424345:
D.A.: My God! I would say that from the shorts point of view the worst case scenario has just unfolded. First reports of 20-30% lease rates and now this!! The only thing worse would be Greenspan announcing an emergency purchase program.

Of course, who needs Greenspan. :- )

However, the significance of this news if it pans out goes far, far beyond silver.

What Buffet has done is given instant credibility to being long in commodities. This day could be seen as a fundamental turning point for both commodities and ( of course ) inflation.

This also amounts to a worse case scenario for Greenspan with all that financial inflation potentially sloping into the tangible economy. The more paper is exchanged for stuff, the more inflation will take off leading to more incentive to dump paper and get stuff.

Who would have thought that Warren Buffet would be the guy to axe poor old Al... The guy shoulda quit when he was ahead....

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:51
lenaxe (kaplan site) ID#263184:
ANYONE, where is the Kaplan site

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:50
Smart man, as always. He realizes that silver is proving to be the best ( and most affordable hedge ) against a market collapse.

For example, during their currency debacles, many average Asians only could afford silver purchases. On the other hand, only affluent Asians were loading up on gold.

It seems like Buffett is expecting that, in an American market debacle, the average American might be able to load up on silver over gold.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:48
BUFFORD ((tvx silver hedge )) ID#253246:

Can anyone explain tvx's silver hedging in their most recent press release 1/28/98?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:46
NightWriter (Fidelity Funds) ID#320441:
The top ten holdings ( as of 12/31 ) of FDPMX ( FSAGX is little different - FDPMX is out of South Africa, unless it got back in ) are down an average

of 2.9% or so today, with the actual NAV off close to 2.5%.

This is by far the best performance of FDPMX relative to the drop in bullion on a huge down day I have seen in the past year, and I have not missed many days. The XAU is off 5.5% or so with bullion down around $7.

Usually gold stocks have been dropping 1% with every dollar drop in bullion, so today is an interesting day, possibly not as discouraging long-term as it might first appear.

Of course, the standing of FDPMX amongst PM funds is tremendously improved ( so far ) over last year.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:45
See Kaplan Site for further info.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:44
Delphi (@Selby) ID#258129:
Selby, I am talking about $10-20 down from 295

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:42
Avalon (Nick @ C; anything going on ?) ID#254269:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:41
Selby () ID#286230:
Delphi: Are you talking about $20 from 305 or $20 from 295?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:40
themissinglink (Gold down) ID#373403:
Ouch, ow, ooh, ooh, ouch!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:39
Preacher (Silverbaron & PAASF) ID#225273:
I think after last year's debacle in exploration, development, and junior producer stocks, especially with what took place in those working in Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe/Western Asia, there will be a very hard time on the part of these companies to get their assets in these places valued with anywhere near the same valuation we saw before.
Russia is a very risky place to work. PAASF may develop that mine, the Ducat, and then see it snatched away from them. This has happened already in Khazakstan and other of the former Soviet Union countries.
There's just no rules that are binding on everyone for a predictable period of time.

The Preacher

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:38
PH in LA (Kitco's 24-Hr.Silver Graph Mechanisms?) ID#225408:
Can anyone explain a phenomenon twice observed on the 24-hour silver graph today? I refer to seeing one graph at about noon Kitco time showing HUGE price swings ( between $6.55 and $6.25 literally 3 or 4 times ) over the course of the morning which was revised twenty minutes later into very much smaller swings albeit reflecting the same overall rise. The same thing is now repeated with a perfectly smooth rise from what what was earlier a much more irregular rise to the Comex close.

Has anyone else noticed the same thing? Any explanation? Or is this a question only the Kitco webmaster could answer?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:37
TYoung (farfel 18:12) ID#317193:
Good post. Can anyone confirm an official source to the Korean's actually selling the gold- if that much gold there be? I doubt the number anyway. Tom

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:34
lenaxe (Warren Buffet rumored on CNBC to be) ID#263184:
CNBC is presently telling listeners that Warren Buffet has been investing in something new since July and keeping everyone waiting. They claim we won't believe it. I'LL BET IT TURNS OUT TO BE GOLD & SILVER.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:34
Neophyte (USA Gold's analysis of Korean gold) ID#390249:
The attached analysis from USA gold interesting. Does anyone have the open interest numbers today on gold. Did it rise?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:34
NJ (D.A.) ID#20748:
Oh boy, indeed. Warren Buffet was buying Silver?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:33
Avalon (tolerant 1; Did you see the 8.41 post by Speed : re IMF ?) ID#254269:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:31
tolerant1 (STUDIO_R) ID#31868:
James never knew Stevie's Wonder


get camdesuss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:27
Silverbaron (Psilver Psyched) ID#288295:

I have been watching the performance of PAASF vs silver for 2 1/2 years; the largest average trend response I have found is a $1 move in silver influenced the share price by $3.86, and this was in the early days. It seems the Russian reserve holdings have been severely discounted by the market, as the trend response now has declined to a $2.73 share change for $1 silver change.... I've never seen anything even close to $6.00 share move for $1 move in silver. My data is over more than 500 consecutive trading days in both up and down markets.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:25
223 (farfel my contrary indicator is bullish!) ID#26669:
For many years as I've been in and out of ssc one indicator never fails. when I get the sudden mindless urge to take profits and sell ssc silver will rise and when I really want to buy more ssc it will fall. And all day long I've been thinking of selling... :^ )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:23
STUDIO.R (@LGB...) ID#93232:
Hillary and Vince Foster were bedmates for years. White House security personnel have known and written about this. Frequent rendevous in Arkansas.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:19
oris (farfel, it was a good post of yours...) ID#238422:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:19
When even the threat of unwarranted litigation cannot stall the great silver bull...when silver maintains a steady climb up a wall of worry....when COMEX stocks continue to plunge in the face of higher prices...when silver radically outperforms its brother gold...


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:16
tolerant1 (G-Nutz) ID#31868:
your 21:40 January 31 -

forgive them for they know not what they do

peace to you and yours

control is a knob on a poorly made boat

Australia never knew how to fill our cup


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:14
See my post @ 17:57 today. Do not exchange
your gold for local currency deposited in
the bank at any kind of fantastic interest
rate offered, because you will probably
suffer the same fate as the Vietnamese.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:12
223 (/CEF continues its march up.) ID#26669:
I've finished rereading the annual report and am still impressed by the fact that CEF has silver reserves at a 50 to 1 ratio to gold. This explains their continued runup despite further weakness in gold related investments. I've noticed that the price has been just plugging along in a gently rising trend since the lows. Durn. should have bought more!

But now I wonder, are there any other dull, boring metals holding companies that I might have overlooked and which might be a good buy around the time I get my IRS refund this spring? I don't think that I could take buying any more of the volatility that I've seen in the mining shares recently.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:12
I always check into Kitco on days like this with a certain amount of dread. With an 8.00 drop in gold, inevitably, the atmosphere of doom & gloom is pervasive. It is no surprise. PM investors in general are not faring anywhere near as well as bonds & equities investors. Envy and despair ( and racial scapegoating ) are the byproduct of any people who are suffering financial misfortune.

Yet, I urge you to avoid succumbing to the dark side of your soul. There are substantive problems in the global economy and when the inevitable Wall Street slide occurs, you must remember the feelings of severe frustration you've experienced ( especially this past year ) . Remember them because those same feelings of frustration and despair will run rampant through the veins of the defeated mutual fund investors. We should stand as positive examples of investors that weathered a storm of despair and encourage the dazed and despondent mutual fund investors to understand that they too will survive their own storm.

Again, let me reiterate:

I honestly believe that, at this point, there is considerably greater upside risk than downside risk to holding gold.

My rationale is based primarily on my fervent belief that the manipulation of gold downward by various notable CB's only made sense to a certain point ( approx. $280 an ounce ) .

In doing so, they effectively accomplished their mission:

1 ) Create an extremely negative bearish psychology to the metal, thus engendering enormous short sales.

2 ) Make huge sums of money by indirectly shorting the metal ( through third party proxies ) .

3 ) Diminish ( and in some cases totally eliminate ) the ability of gold producers to supply metal to the short sellers once the squeeze begins.

4 ) Reaccumulate the metal at lower prices in advance of major CB announcements concerning formation of the EMU ( and now rumor has it, the
AMU ( Asian Monetary Union ) . Once such announcements are made re: gold supported EURO, then sell into the ensuing panic buy ( at $500 and up ) in various stages. ( Also, the panic buy could be triggered by a Wall Street debacle ) .

5 ) Consolidate control of the metal in the hands of fewer CB's, thereby in effect creating truly oligopolistic control of the metal.

I honestly believe that, if the CB's take actions ( either through further sales or gold loans ) to drop the metal ( on a sustained basis ) below $280, then they are effectively screwing themselves. If they do so, they are effectively removing the precious from the metal. I believe they would trigger a complete collapse in the POG, i.e., a swift drop from 275 to maybe 150 or lower as all positive psychology simply evaporates. Why wipe out the value of your principal simply to make a few percentage points on loans? Why sell the metal for $150 an ounce less than CB's such as Belgium and the Netherlands obtained for selling their reserves? For example, wouldn't Switzerland feel indescribably stupid if they can't at the very least equal the price that Belgium ( or even Argentina? ) received for its sale of gold?

Ultimately, the moment I knew categorically that the CB's were manipulating the POG came with the Swiss announcement that they would likely sell half their reserves at a future date.

No rational financial entity advertises such a fact in advance knowing damn well that such an announcement will radically diminish the value of their primary asset when it comes time to sell it.

As for prospective Korean or Thai sales of gold, I would bet major money that other CB's will likely absorb most of this supply ( for all the preceding reasons I have listed ) .

Also, always keep in mind that 160 tons of Korean Au may seem huge to certain biased Wall Street managers...but when the Wall Street tumble occurs ( and given the current absurd levels of euphoria on The Street, I expect it will be sooner than later ) , in the ensuing panic, millions of investors desperately seeking to load up on gold can absorb the total Korean tonnage in a mere 15 minutes of trading.

Finally, given the extreme volatility of markets over the past few months, I completely reject standard technical analysis in its attempts to predict the movements of either Wall Street or Au. We are about to witness a spate of left field events ( war ranks high on the list right now ) that are bound to disrupt dramatically the smooth chart lines of the technicians as a bull market transmogrifies into a bear like a bullet shot from a gun.

The change in mass psychology will be swift and sharp.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:11
chevy (Silver and Gold ) ID#287358:

Silver and gold move together historicaly. The silver stocks aren't going up much because the move isn't belived to last to long. Take a look at the futures contracts in foward months. Cnbc needs John Murphy back. He'd probably say it looks like a short covering rally Sue.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:08
Psilver Psyched (Trading PAASF) ID#216217:
PAASF has a lot of reserves which become economic at prices just above
$7. For this reason I believe the analysis which shows linear response in present price range will not continue to hold above $7. According to other analysis which I have seen on this subject a $1 move in Ag above $7. should boost PAASF by $6.25. I know how disappointing that will be...

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:07
kiwi (Silver Six Six Six) ID#194311:
is that devil soros behind this again?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:06
Silverbaron (PAASF trading scheme) ID#288295:

Oopsie! forgot email address...send requests to

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:03
Silverbaron (A TRADING SCHEME FOR PAASF) ID#288295:

Recently I have published here ( and my friend IDT confirmed ) a correlation of PAASF price vs silver price; which is, PAASF ( $/share ) = 2.73 X Silver price ( $/oz ) - $6.03 ... I have just discovered a possible trading basis for this stock, based on deviations from this equation.... The actual price of the shares minus the predicted price has a very cyclical pattern with time, varying from about + or - $1 ( overvaluation to undervaluation ) about every 50 to 75 days. I will gladly furnish plots of the PAASF correlation and the deviation upon request, with data if you desire it. Currntly PAASF is in the undervaluation region.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 18:01
Delphi (Gold spot price) ID#258129:
Regarding current prices - I have posted here a sell signal twice - on January 25 and 26 . Last week it was oscillating in 300-305 range, giving plenty of possibilities to close positions. If my charts are telling the truth, it will go another 10-20 dollars down. All my gold spot forecasts are short term - there was 3 of them posted here before, makes it 4 in total. One was wrong.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:57
oris (Tzadeak) ID#238422:
Thanks for you response,
but let me tell you that
we both perfectly know
what I meant..and you meant..
You would certainly
agree that it is not very
beatiful to remind anybody
about this anybody's HONEST
mistake after this mistake
( I talk about 100 mil. ounces )
was admited. This is usually
considered not business, but
strictly personal...

Anyway, hopefully we are O.K. now...

Take care.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:57
AYORK (xau5 , Korea gold, individual contributions) ID#20167:
Total contribution = 161 metric tons=
5,176,182 troy ounces
A news article stated that 1.6 million
people contributed the gold. Therefore each
person contributed 3.2 ounces.

The population of S. Korea is about 35 million
so the stated 161 tons is in the realm of
I don't know how repressive the Korean Govt.
is but I have personal knowledge about what
happened with the peoples' gold in Vietnam
after the communist takeover. The people
were told to put their gold in the banks.
They knew what their fate would be if they
declined the offer. If they were caught
with the gold their heads would be lopped
off in public. As an inticement, the govt.
paid 30% per year interest on the local
currency that was credited to each account.
Of course, the inflation rate soon soared
to several hundred percent per year
and they got back only devalued fiat
currency. Within a few years the money was
virtually worthless and the higher ups in the
govt. got filthy rich.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:57
Year2000 (Korean Gold stories ) ID#228100:
Be careful about what you read about the gold in Korea. I worked and lived in Korea for several years ( commercial project ) . Since the government controls the media, one thing is for certain: They always have a reason ( and objective ) for releasing news stories!

Why are the Koreans making such a big deal about this gold?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:54
Psilver Psyched (Warren Buffet silver purchases @ D. A.) ID#216217:
Great news. The silver bugs just gained a lot of credibility!
Now we have both Buffet and Soros in the camp.
Poor Martin Armstrong !
Go silver.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:54
LGB2__A (@ Martin Amrstrong, Merril Lynch) ID#315256:
Martin, if you're reading this, I hope that your unbiased and objective analysis of the silver market, i.e. your naked and blatant attempt to cover your massive short positions with phony one sided analysis, cost you your entire fortune in the past few days. You should join in that class action Phibro suit and waste some more funds on that lost cause.

Merril Lynch rumor mongering market manipulators, same sentiments to you! Now watch your short positions get crushed in the maw of fundamentals and smarter market traders than yourselves who will profit from this move through their massive accumation.

your pal, LGB

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:51
Ersel (OOPS.. SORRY) ID#228283:

@ John Disney...Is R.R. your dwarf in disguise?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:50
Psilver Psyched (Silver Stocks...PAASF, SSRIF, V.FSR) ID#216217:
With the move in the base metal, it is incredible that the pure silver stock plays are not riding along. Must mean there are still MANY skeptics. I guess that also means the run has more to go.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:48
Ersel (John Disney..) ID#228283:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:47
LGB2__A (Clinton........right wing conspirators) ID#315256:
Here's a different take, interested in feedback. ( Bart, CLinton's credibility has a major effect on Gold as we saw through this crises and the dropping dollar, disinvesting of treasuries, rise in Gold, and reversal this week now that the spinmeisters have won ) .

IMHO, Kenneth Starr is someone who the Democrats LOVE to have in that position because he is incompetant, bumbling, inept, indecisive, extremely slow, and doing all the WRONG things that a good independant counsel would do. Info. that goes to Starr goes into a black hole, never to be seen or properly investigated again.

The reason Hillary, Carville ( the Lizardman ) , Bennet et al attack Starr, is to give him CREDIBILITY as IF he is actually doing his job, when they know full well that he's their man in the long run. Read the book The strnage death of Vincent Foster or many other works and you'll have food for thought.

And keep in mind, I'm no conspiracy nut, but I think there are some VERY strage things happening with the media spins, the Lewinsky attacks, etc.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:46
D.A. (oh.boy) ID#7568:

Just across the news wires. Warren Buffet stated that he has purchased 130 million ounces of silver over the last 6 months. He is neither buying any more or selling what he's got.

With all the Buffet wannabees out there this is going to get very, very interesting.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:38
LGB2__A (Reich's investments) ID#315256:
He's probably in stocks. GoldBugs here woulda gone NUTS of they heard the interview. He essentially believes that there isn't anything that has inherent worth other than investment in people development. ( also known as Govt. redistribution of wealth by the cynical ) .

Even the left leaning talk show host was amazed how Reich refused to give a straight answer on why we wouldn't be better off paying down the 5 trillion dollar debt, than pouring money onto new social programs.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:29
Cyclist (XAU) ID#339274:
FWIW.Wouldn't be surprised of hitting 60 intraday in the next
two trading session.Where ever the bottom the run up is going to
be just as explosive.happy trading

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:27
LGB2__A (@ Earl) ID#315256:
You're quite right, Reich was labor secretary and if ever there was a big Govt. socialist, Reich was it. His dad must have been teh guy who wrote The Greening of America by ***** Reich. ( Can't remember the first name ) . That was a radical soclialist agenda book, pushed down our young throats when I was in high scholl, in leftist Santa Cruz CA. ( Where I still reside )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:24
JTF (Robert Reiche) ID#57232:
LBG2: I wonder, is Robert Reiche 100% invested in the stock market? I would be if I believed him.

Does he believe himself?

Why hasn't he been able to convince Alan Greenspan to do the same with his money?

Do we have a double standard? Them and us?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:22
Charles Keeling (@ ALL) ID#344225:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:22
LGB2__A (@ Realistic.......Silver that Comex data) ID#315256:
Just say NO to Martin Armstrong and Merril Lynch folks. Silver is our friend!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:21
Avalon (Dow/Gold ratio 30 day moving average is 27.89; gap between that and ) ID#254269:
today's figure is meaningless ( 0.10% ) .

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:20
Earl () ID#227238:
LGB2__A: Mr. Reichhhhh never met a govt program he didn't adore. Especially if it employed scores of 'his people'. ..... BTW, not that it makes a damn of difference but I think his post was labor sec. as opposed to treas. sec.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:20
LGB2__A (@ Bart re Bernatz) ID#315256:
I vote to leave Hepcat on the forum for the following 3 reasons;
a ) He's been uncannily accurate on his Gold calls, whether he insists on crowing about it is irrelevant.

b ) he adds comic relief with the self absorbed neurosis factor.

c ) He's a contrary voice here when it comes to market crash predicitons, etc. We need that.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:19
Hedgehog (Softly softly brrrrrrrrrrrrrr) ID#39845:
This figure of 161 tonnes is soooo close to the amount sold by
the RBA, that it is comfirmation of what I was saying months
ago. Most of RBAs 167 tonnes was sold to South Korea after
some heavying by someone. Televising gold donations by public
was a scam. If I was Korean I'd be stashing mine somewhere
dark'n'quiet. I'd say, and this is OMO, Uncle Sam told the
Aussies that tbey could enhance their defence capabilities
quite handsomely by selling gold to South Korea. In other
words bro our arms are yours in this war, we will just have
our boys on the triggers and buttons, thats all. Anyhow
Kiwi and NJ are on the money. The blowtorched Korean arses
vision got me ROTFLMHO.
Source legit re RBA sale.
Take care out there.
Time to rip into some porridge.
rest is history after a bit of prodding by Cohen ( another
lawyer ) Aussies came to the party and bought up big in
Yen, Marks and US dollars with proceeds.
This once again might seem a bit jumbled but only because I'm
reeling from the size of the scam. As mentioned by

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:17
Realistic (COMEX DATA) ID#410194:
Here are the latest Comex inventory figures released after trading today:

Gold: Fell 643 troy ounces to 445,236

Silver: Fell 756,284 troy ounces 103,021,805 - A new 13 year low

If it looks like a bull market, it is a bull market!

The move in Silver started months ago and the astute traders/investors who only cared about what they saw on the charts are now able to claim some nice profits from one of the most exciting commodity move of the last few months.

There were plenty of reasons for Silver not to go up, according to analysts. Do we want to listen to specialists, analysts, commentators, researchers, emotional callers, etc.... or make some money?

Congratulations for those who have been and/or still aboard of the Silver bull!

There will be plenty more of these moves.... but as usual, only a few will be recognizing them.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:17
223 (xau5 re 1635 post) ID#26669:
You must not have heard. They've figured out a process to transmute gold from base metals. All it takes is the proper attitude and a few billion bucks seed money from the IMF. Here's a link to a commercial site which claims to be working on the process, but please take it with a grain of salt. Or maybe two grains if you're particularly gullible. As for me, I'll believe it only when they start casting gold to use as lawn ornaments. :^ )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:16
LGB2__A (Gold ads on radio) ID#315256:
Was listening to talk radio today as I came home by rowboat from central CA valley. Interesting new phenomona is that I've been hearing all kinds of Gold promotions lately re new coming bull market in Gold, last chance to get aboard, etc. Been listening to talk radio for years and havn't heard this level of promotion in a long time.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:15
cmh (Korean Gold nuggets) ID#333232:
Korean Editorial on Gold Collections ( January 16 )

Query: gold collection

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:14
Donald__A (Korean Gold) ID#26793:
There is some hanky-pank with the Korean gold stories. Over the weekend I posted export trade figures for Korea which INCLUDED $520 million for gold export. How many times can you report the same gold?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:12
LGB2__A (@ Robert Reiccchhhhhhh) ID#315256:
Heard an interview today with Robert Reich, former holder of Rubin's post , and outspoken commentator on all things economic. He gave the usual socialist dogma about why we shouldn't use the coming budget surplus to pay down the debt and should instead invest it ( and more ) in bigger and better Govt. development programs. He also made the usual slams at guy's like Bill Gates ( gotta build that class envy you know ) , and how social security taxation shouldn't stop at $64 K of income but keep right on going, etc.

The one interesting thing he said, was that social security is NOT going to run out of money in 2029 as congressional reports have stated. He said that the 2029 date is based on an assumed economic growth rate of 1.4%, but that we will far exceed that rate of growth, thus assuring solvency well into latter half of 21st century even taking very conservative economic growth rate numbers of say 2.3%

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:11
tolerant1 (My name is Kevan S. Khanamirian) ID#31868:
James C. you sir are scum, I invite you to my lawn, I will destroy your gums you sir will never know how to stop bleeding from the wrath of my fists.

You are an abortion of the truth in Carolina.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:11
James (TA works but Eliot Janeway is absolutely right) ID#252150:
Straddler 13:47 & Eldorado 14:02--There is no doubt that TA can be an invaluable tool in short term trading, but I really question it's usefullness even for the medium term.
Regardless of all the short term noise I don't think AU is going anywhere
soon. I think E.J. has it right.
Gold goes the opposite of the currency in power.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:09
Donald__A (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Gold/Silver Ratio = 44.31

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:08
Donald__A (@Kitco) ID#26793:
XAU/Spot Ratio = .240

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:06
Donald__A (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Dow Gold Ratio = 27.65

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:03
Donald__A (@AllenUSA) ID#26793:
If I had the data I would send it to you. The data for the original chart came from bb fisher. He no longer posts here but I can contact him if no one else can help. His data was to 1903 and was monthly. I have data since July 28, 1997.

I have random data for the early years that I have collected recently. Lots of holes in it. Contact me directly at if you wish.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 17:02
Year2000 (Korean Gold) ID#228100:
According to the Washington Post, the Korean gold will be melted into bars for export. Check out this article:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:57
TZADEAK* (@ DEJ....) ID#372344:
I hope you believe me when I say I wish you the best of good luck in
all your Gold investments, be they in South Africa or not, and I hope
you will wish me good luck in my investments be they in North America
or not. We Goldbugs invest where ever we feel is the best bet.
We need not knock North American Gold shares as horrible investments, then suggest that South African shares are the only
good investments.Each stock has a good reason for it's value.
The reason for investment in South African Shares should not be
in my view based on the belief that Noth American shares have no
value, but rather on their merits, or lack thereof, according to our
evaluation, and not someone's perception. I say all this sincerely...

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:56
KMTMAN@VANCOUVER (STRADDLER you hit the nail on the head your analysis is spot on.) ID#273368:
When that happens the new trend will be in effect.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:55

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:52
JTF (Interesting post on how to keep Gold in a bear) ID#57232:
NJ: Enjoyed your post regarding how the news about the South Korean gold 'sale' was posted by Bloomberg every 20 minutes. My spin on this is that artificially pushing down the price of a good only enhances the 'backlash' when the pushing stops -- which eventually it will. I like the analogy for gold as follows: Imagine all the gold sales and loans as pushing down a beachball in a swimming poll by standing on it. The farther down you push it, the harder it is to keep down. And if you suddenly stop and let go, it will literally 'explode' out of the water.

I think gold will do this, though the CB's will do their very best to slow the rise of gold. Steven Leeb thinks so ( I respect his insight ) , and so does F Veneroso, the latter having compared the price of gold to inflationary trends for over 100 years. FVeneroso thinks the equilibrium price of gold is about $600 right now! Given the nature of gold to historically overshoot, it could well reach $1000/oz on its rise before year 2000, and then settle back. I think we will have a nice rise very soon!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:46
TZADEAK* (@ Myrmidon...Re Ted's post and Gold production figures...) ID#372344:
I don't agree as has been suggested that production figures which show the year 1997 were only for half a year's production, instead I believe that
said figures for year 1997should likely read 1987 because of the following:

1.Under 1997 The Soviet Union is shown as producing some 277 tons,
as we all know there is no more Soviet Union, Russia is listed in 1996
as a top producer, and should be listed as such.

2. Indonesea and Uzbekistan top Gold producers in 1996 do no appear in said erroneous year1997.

3. South Africa is shown as producing 607 tons in 1997, that does not
appear believable, unless of course they have been selling kitty Gold.

all of course JMHO....

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:45
ROR (Korea) ID#35767:
They said a week ago that they would hold off selling. Remember Ted Arnold was the one who started the silver manipulation story which precipitated a lawsuit which has no hope of prevailing even if the facts are as alleged ( my previous posts indicated such ) . He knows silver will go through the roof and is using his voice to keep it technically weak. Remember a move above 310 is breakout time. He was / is wrong on silver can gold be far behind?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:43
DEJ (Tzadeak) ID#269191:
So Drooy's down 40% this week. At the recent intraday high it was up almost
3 times from its $1.40 low. The point is that if we are indeed in
a bull market for gold the high cost S.A. producers will run circles
around the low cost N.A. producers because of operating leverage.

If gold stays around where it's at now then it's a terrible investment.
But we who are in Drooy know that. We're betting on higher gold
prices simple as that. If we get them, we'll make a killing.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:41
cmh (Where to be in March) ID#333232:
Sales of gold up by 35 per cent last year

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:30
xau5 (gold KOrea) ID#201131:
Does anybody know what amount of gold each Korean would have to contribute to get to 161 tons of gold? This smells like the bank of korea is punting gold here or they just got a loan of gold to sell for us dollars to be replaced at a later date. I think the latter is more accurate. The Germans could loan them the gold. They sell it and pocket the dough till the IMF comes thru. Give me your thoughts on this. bye

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:30
ROR (Silver/Gold) ID#35767:
Whats with the divergence? Martin Armstrong Where are you?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:29
Neophyte (Crudele on Japan and Mexico) ID#390249:
The attached article by John Crudele is very interesting.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:28
TZADEAK* (@ NJ RE Korean Gold, see my post of 12:10, url quotes SA Goldfield's Wright) ID#372344:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:27
John Disney__A (Do you believe it ) ID#24135:
For myrmidon
Maybe try first 6 months 1997 - humbly suggested

for NJ
OK I believe it - but is there such a thing as an 18 karat
bar or a 12 I dont believe it. And Ill believe anything.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:21
6pak (Federal Reserve Corporation @ Settlement of BCCI for $5 Million - Go Figure eh!) ID#335190:
February 3, 1998
Fed says Clifford, Altman settle in BCCI case

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Tuesday that former Defense Secretary Clark Clifford and his law partner Robert Altman agreed to pay about $5 million to settle proceedings against them over the bankrupt BCCI banking empire.

Altman also agreed not to participate again in the banking industry without the Fed's approval. A similar prohibition action against Clifford was dismissed because of his advanced age and ill health, the Fed said.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:20
NJ (John Disney) ID#20748:
There was a post recently that Koreans were not going to sell the gold collected from their citizens. Instead, they were going to hold it in reserve for future emergencies.
However, this morning from London, in his daily commentary to the ML sales force, Ted Arnold said two things. First, that short term gold was likely to trade between 300 and 305. This we know was proven wrong by the action in New York. Second, as a 'talking point' he said to the sales force that the Korean gold collected was larger than anticipated and would be sold off in blocks. This. totally unverified 'news' was picked up by Bloomberg radio and is being broadcast as analaysis every 20 minutes. Goes to show how willing the media is to maintain a negative sentiment towards the metal.
I on my part agree with the analaysis that CB sales are or would be very soon behind us and media frenzy too will become a thing of the past.
If someone has hard news on Korean gold, please post.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:08
Myrmidon (@ Ted and all) ID#345176:

The numbers in my previous post are in tonnes, not in M ozs. But still don't make sense. Sorry for indicating M ozs.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:06
Avalon (Dow closed at 8160 (up 53 points or 0.65%), S & P 500 up 4.72 points, 30 yr. ) ID#254269:
bond at 5.861%. Volume on NYSE 696 million shares.
Also lots of volume on NASDAQ today with 765 million shares.
The brokers are making money.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 16:00
kiwi (John Disneyland man...) ID#194311:
Back in late August/Oct a press report posted here mentioned that Korean merchant banks had been loaning massive amounts of gold and shorting onto the open market....just when their currency tanked leaving them with their @sses hanging out over a raging inferno. A Korean Govt. statement at the time said they would in all circumstances make good on their gold loans.
As some of these banks have been shut down by now it will be the Govt. CB's responsibility to make good on these deals...hence the gold collection. No doubt how well they deliver on these makes a big difference in the eyes of the lenders of paper money who have just agreed to anti up for more fun and games.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 15:59
Myrmidon (@ Ted ref 15:39 post) ID#345176:

Ted, I went to the URL site and at the end of the article are
listed the top 10 producing countries with their corresponding
production levels for 1996 and 1997.

These numbers don't make sense at all:

1. US production is 329 M ozs for 1996, and 155 M ozs for 1997.
Looks wrong.

2. Australia - 289 M ozs for 1996, and 111 M ozs for 1997.
Looks wrong.

@ all: Any more comments on those numbers?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 15:49
John Disney__A (What is this Korean Gold anyway) ID#24135:
to anyone
Korean gold is puzzling -
1 somebody posted a few days ago that gold was to pay
off a GOLD LOAN - was that bs
2. Jewelery gold normally is 18K at best - thats 25
% copper - Is korean jewellery special 24 K stuff with
no alloy I am starting to think that this is nutty
stuff 160 tons of What are they gonna refine it
Does anyone know details of this operation ?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 15:44
Realistic (Oh yeah, we remember...) ID#410194:
Yep, a week to remember: New all time highs in the S & P.

Date: Sun Jan 25 1998 13:12
Bob M ( Dow ) ID#26059:
This week the financial markets will vote on this Clinton deal and it will not be pleasant..Dow will see its first 1000+ point drop in one day a day.,.this will be a week to remember..this deal cannot fester for long too much at stake..Clinton will be gone by Thursday

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 15:42
STUDIO.R (@all) ID#93232:
CNBC Metals Report right now. Soloman Bros.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 15:41
TZADEAK* (@ oris...My post was a response to his post of 12:39 horror stories of NA Mines...) ID#372344:
As long as he insists on informing this discussion forum the negatives
as he perceives them, of North American Mines, I feel I ,to balamce the discussion,I should point some negatives about South African mines...You will note that my post was not a personal attack, but strickly the facts....DROOY is down over 40% this week....unlike his post to you
again namecalling, his only thoughtfull and informedresponse.You will note I did not respond to his attack.....THIS TIME!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 15:40
James (And Now For A Dash Of Cold Water) ID#252150:
In the interest of balanced reporting-from a recent edition of
the Bank Credit Analyst. I prefer Leeb's scenario.
There is growing evidence that Asia is entering an economic crunch that will have a substantial impact on the U.S. ( & global ) economy & inflation in 1998, & possibly beyond.
Investors should continue to strongly favour bonds over equities, stay long the $U.S. & avoid inflation-hedge assets such as gold.

Unfortunately these guys have an excellent forecasting record-which is why I temper my enthusiasm for au with caution ( actually cowardice ) . I sold my ABX last week but unfortunately did'nt have the guts to go short. Instead I shorted a copper stock which turned against me ( temporarily I hope ) .

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 15:39

POG should settle in around 275-285 in the next week and then start an unprecdented run.
Hold off buyers then hoard the stuff.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 15:39
Ted (South Africa in Gold's grip) ID#330175:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 15:37
John Disney__A (Oris arrives just in time) ID#24135:
For Oris
Russian diplomatic skills are famous. Thank
you for your intervention noble Oris and blue
berets. I will remove Arab Legion from
border with Dwarfland and continue to maintain

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 15:24
cmh (Whew, crisis solved... ;)) ID#333232:
Russia: U.S. can't use weapons in Iraq

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 15:21
oris (Tzadeak) ID#238422:
It took me a lot of effort
to stop a certain hostility
between John Disney and you.
I do not know about my success in your case,
but brother John stopped it a couple
of days ago. You previously stated
that when you attack my brother John,
you do it only on self-defence...

Your post of 12:46 is a typical
provocation, which has as it's purpose
to start hostile actions again...

It is not a self-defence in any away.

I hope you will stop behaving like a kid
and just continue your normal goldbug's activities..

In regard to 100 mil. ounces question,
John already stated that it was a typo in a magazine
which he trusted, so if you didn't notice John's
message on this subject, please find it and read it.

God, help us all...

Oris The Peacekeeper.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 15:20
James (And now for something WILDLY bullish!) ID#252150:
The following is excerptd from Stephen Leeb's letter which appeared in
my latest copy of Investor's Digest:
Forecasting 10 fold gains for any group is highly risky. But this is the beginning of a new year, & why not go for a home run?
Plus my prediction of 10-fold gains for au stocks will give you a clear idea of where I think the world is headed in 1998 & beyond.
The lesson of the past decade is this: 10-fold gains are born out of utter despair over an investment sector whose long term viability is nearly assured.
Right now the industry that comes closest to fitting that bill is au miners.
Mr. Leeb says gold's rise will be fueled by inflationary growth. When investors realize that inflationary pressures are rising, the $ will come under pressure & further fuel inflation.
The U.S. Fed Reserve Bank will be helpless to bring it to a halt.
This kind of vicious circle will spark 10-fold gains in the utterly depressed au stocks.
even a bear mkt rally in au could be manna for au stocks, as happened between the springs of 1982-83, when bullion climbed from 300 to the mid 400s per oz. That was better than a 3 -fold gain for au stocks.
I hope you won't complain if my 10-fold prediction pans out to 'only' a 3-fold gain. Either way, at least a small position is worth a shot.
His favorite stocks are TVX & BMG.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 15:18
John Disney__A (16 ways of looking at a blackbird) ID#24135:
For Earl
Spoke to DD company secretary today and will try to
get some resouces numbers to add to the 15 mill
life of mine figures - I worried a lot about DDeep cost
as you know. I worry less now that Ive seen costs
on Vaunted low cost NA mines. When some of these boys
crash, Americans will cry SCAM and FRAUD and head for
lawyers -- It will be their own fault for not doing
any homework - assuming they can do any math tougher
than making change.
Appreciate Myrmidon's list of 100 reasons not to buy
RSA mines - I particularly liked the one where Yanks
unable pronounce names of some mines and are put off.
That is a good point. For example - I practically
choke whenever I say ANGLO AMERICAN and I donno HARMONY
never seems to come out right. But I can say BARRICK
and DE-FENSE. Its all boils down to doing what we're
good at. Only kidding really, The points were good -
I think a few US states may even still have sanctions
imposed even though Government changed years ago.
Also read today that Randall Robinson is bitter
because Thabo and big Nellie have ignored him and
do not appreciate patronizing efforts of US Black
caucus to exert influence on their policies.
Thabo is looking more and more like Anglos public
relations department.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 15:10
Allen(USA) (sweat) ID#246224:
Yes. There are a number of things I'd like to do to explore this with the numbers. I'm thinking a standard deviation of changes on a day to day basis would help widen the stops enough to keep noise from triggering an trade. Also wondering about 30 or 40 day moving average as a means of filtering out random noises. There might be 4 to 8 points per year to consider a trade. ( ? ) I don't know. In the 1905 to 1933 period there were about 10 or 12 trades ( B/S ) based on yearly numbers. This probably would go up some for quarter or month figures. ( ? )

Needless to say we are presently on Mt Everest in terms of D/G ratio. This could go on for a while, but I don't see any reason to wait for massive chaos to motivate me to be out of Equities and into Gold. Couldn't care less if the D/G goes to 35. Just know its only a matter of time, regardless of the mechanisms, for these assets to reverse their relationship. Its only happened two other times in this century! Here we are at the cross roads AGAIN. Wow!!!

It certainly would be nice to have some kind of tool ( s ) to keep one from being beaten to pieces by the daily and weekly froth of noise we so eagerly watch. It is exhausting to be to concerned about daily price movements. ( I am a 3 to 5 year type of guy. )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 15:08
Allen(USA) (Silver @6.79 ) ID#246224:
HI! HO! Silver! AWAAAAAAAY ! ! ! ! ! !

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 15:03
Barb Hughes (@ALL) ID#20783:

London Spot Silver 18 cent premium over March COMEX...


Take care...Barb

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:50
tman (Straddler & jman) ID#373346:
Straddler, thanks for your input. Keep up the good posts. I agree with your views. I also agree that this is a subject that needs more research. It does beat anthrax and WWWIII talk doesn't it!

jman, you're right about Larry Williams. I too have taken his course. If you remember, he starts long term and then narrows his study down to very short ( day ) trading. Again, the views on open interest are long term ( which will help determine the future direction of gold ) and should not be the only indicator looked at. O.I. is only a part of the grand scheme of any commodity.

Gotta run for now.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:49
John Disney__A (Ratio bent but unbroken ) ID#24135:
Er silver - you can stop now silver ... Back
to 6.25 hey ... silver STOOOOP. Just dont
take gold back down with you. Maybe ratio not
broken only bent, if you use forward rather
than spot because of crazeee backwardation.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:48
OLD GOLD (outlook) ID#238295:
RJ: Agree that the gold bear is in the process of reversing despite today's mini massacre. I also would love to see the price fall back to $280 so I can puchase lots more gold mutuals at firesale prices.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:45
Earl () ID#227238:
John Disney: For the most part, the SA's are down on modest volume. DROOY is being whacked on the largest volume. About 475,000. Harmony is down on only about 12,500. At least that's what my system is showing.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:42
GFD (6.75 Spot!! ) ID#424345:
On the CNBC Europe Commodities page!!

Don't know if this is bad data but it may show as Barb indicated that there is quite a gap between London and NY spot ( at least as displayed by Bart.. )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:41
Myrmidon (The Au fall) ID#345176:

We may have no fundamentals. Strictly a technical selloff.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:37
OLD GOLD (Why is gold down?) ID#238295:
Although I saw this decline coming, I can only speculate re: the cause. In a recent presentation on the metals Martin Armstrong asserted one more CB would be selling gold through May of this year. Perhaps they are beginning to unload? Or perhaps the rumor mill is grinding out tales about another push for IMF sales. Who knows? But when gold failed to rally convincingly yesterday despite the rebound in Asia, it was obvious that prices would be headed lower in the near future.

Bernatz: Indeed you are perhaps the premiere analyst on this site. BTW, what is your long-term view of the yellow now?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:37
jman (Larry Williams?) ID#251268:
I took a course of his and seems to me he is very clear about being a short term trader ( 4-5 days ) even pin pointing moves to the day,you havee to be good and very disciplined with planning and exit stops to trade like that.Lots of people on the site friday warned of correction,I got out of all futures cont.but figured the upside potenial over the weekend was greater than the downside,so kept options,we'll see got to love the movement.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:31
Jack (This imaginary 161 tonne of gold) ID#252127:

Yes, 5.2 million ounces handed in by a population of 45 million sounds plausible.......but it also sounds like a plausible reason to drive the price of gold down, as they have today.
S.Korea has the capacity to refine about 10 tonne of gold annually, and we are talking about 161 tonne. This * ( phantom gold ) has to be refinedl you know.
Additionally Korean's mostly hold gold in 3.? gram pieces ( name forgotten ) , that's about 0.1 ounce.
IMO the gold turn-in of 161 tonne had to require at least 20 million transactions, but probably a lot more.
This alone leads me to suspect this whole operation as * ( phantom gold )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:26
Realistic (A day to remember...) ID#410194:
Silver ( March ) shot up more than 35 cents...

Gold ( April ) plummeted about 8 dollars...

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:26
sweat (TYonng 14:02) ID#23782:
If this was Dec. 1997, stox would have got hit harder.
But, in the last 2 weeks, they never did go up as they should have.
Best guess is we will be stuck in a range. 290 - 305

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:22
Straddler (tman) ID#280215:
You and Larry are right in that open interest falling on rising prices is bullish IN THE LONGER TERM. As I said, if the short-covering is on VERY HIGH volume as we've had, this probably indicates a trend change is coming LONGER TERM because the shorts are getting scared. You are also right in that I play the week to week. This latest short-covering on high volume has nudged me a little and said hey the trend could be ready to reverse.

But until I see rising prices on rising open interest, I can't see the price doing anything but a retrace. If no new buyers are coming in and no new buy contracts are coming in, then who's buying? I think the answer is the shorts are buying and closing out their short positions and thus lowering the open interest. When the open interest starts to rise on rising prices and even better, on rising volume, then mom and pop are also starting to buy, not just the short traders. More importantly, this would indicate a psychological change, which after all, is the basis for a trend, whether up or down.

By the way, I enjoy this kind of discussion whether you agree or disagree. It sure beats discussing WWIII and anthrax!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:21
RJ (..... Fun Day .....) ID#411259:

Word is that there is one very large short position in silver that is getting squeezed today. Open interest down 25K contracts. Everybody else got to cover their shorts, where was this schmoe? The fact the nobody seems to be dumping London silver at 15 cents over New York today, is very bullish. Contrived or not, the market is in physical shortage right now. Lower lease rates, and a double top should combine with slightly higher warehouse stocks to push silver back to the $6 range, at which time I plan to buy a bunch of it. They're going to make a run at $7………. Soon.

The $9 drop in gold has buoyed my spirits some. I would love another chance to buy gold at $280. I still like gold here. The downside is risk is small and I think gold must move back to the mid $300 range before summer.

Platinum is in a coma. The break above $400, when it happens, will be swift on the heels of news that Russian shipments will be delayed. Another rumor today is that there was a large palladium sale in Japan overnight, but I could find nothing to support that. I'm still buying platinum.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:21
snowbird (Current Gold and Silver options prices?) ID#285392:
Would someone please provide a site for current ( 15 min delay ) prices on gold and silver options. Bohl is a good place for end of day prices but it would be nice to check the options during the day. Thank you.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:19
TYoung (Mozel) ID#317193:
Don't know what that portends.It means people think this is a spike which will not last. Same reason PAASF has not moved. Is there a supply hidden? If you could answer that question you could be rich. Speaking of rich, Soros now owns a siver company. Kind of answers the question.IMHO. Tom

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:13
Goldbug23 (ZIVA - GREAT JOKE) ID#432148:
Yes, on a day like this we all need a great joke, and that is one of the best. With the situation in the Middle East, East Asia like a yoyo, and a Pres. in the US who will obviously sooner or later cause problems ( is he really going to strike Iraq ) , I have to believe a conspiracy is trying to control the POG! The CBs are doing it, I feel sure. If I were in their shoes, I probably would too. But, that can go on just so long! P. S. I am 71 and I can tell you, it never dies ;- )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:11
mozel (backwardation in silver) ID#153102:
what does this portend ?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:05
snowbird (Barb Hughes) ID#285392:
Thanks for taking the time to provide the site. I look forward to your posts.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:04
tman (Straddler) ID#373346:
From the Larry Williams worshipers: ( Yeah right )

My view on open interest is contrary to yours only on the appropriate time frame. You play day-by-day or week-by-week. The view that when open interest falls is bullish is an intermediate to long-term indicator. Again, look at a yearly graph of any commodity and this will be confirmed.

Why do you want open interest to rise? This only means that sentiment towards gold would be to short it.


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:02
John Disney__A (OK silver you can go down now) ID#24135:
Ok silver you hit 6.55 - you can go down now -
er silver ... hey silver.... can you hear me silver....
I believe the rot is setting in ...

Oris .. where are the blue berets truce has been
broken on dwarfland border .. Oris

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:02
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
Myrmidon -- Just pay attention to the charts on the stocks you own. The given support and resistance areas on them should tell you most of all you need to know for either getting in or getting out. I just hate to hear from anyone that they did not know when to fold 'em. Good trading/investing to you.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 14:02
TYoung (Buy) ID#317193:
Any thoughts on buying back shares yet this aftenoon. I'm tempted. Tom

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:51
Myrmidon (@ Eldorado) ID#345176:

I didn't jump on SSC only because of the news ( although that is what my post implied ) but because silver is acting a lot stronger than gold, and except Hecla, I am low on silver stocks.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:51
Isure (Bernatz) ID#368244:

Has anyone told you in a heavy wind a hollow pipe makes the most noise.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:49
pyramid (2nd Joke of the Morning) ID#217268:
50. Act naturally
49. Found missing
48. Resident alien
47. Advanced BASIC
46. Genuine imitation
45. Airline Food
44. Good grief
43. Same difference
42. Almost exactly
41. Government organization
40. Sanitary landfill
39. Alone together
38. Legally drunk
37. Silent scream
36. American history
35. Living dead
34. Small crowd
33. Business ethics
32. Soft rock
31. Butt Head
30. Military Intelligence
29. Software documentation
28. New York culture
27. New classic
26. Sweet sorrow
25. Childproof
24. Now, then ...
23. Synthetic natural gas
22. Christian Scientists
21. Passive aggression
20. Taped live
19. Clearly misunderstood
18. Peace force
17. Extinct Life
16. Temporary tax increase
15. Computer jock
14. Plastic glasses
13. Terribly pleased
12. Computer security
11. Political science
10. Tight slacks
9. Definite maybe
8. Pretty ugly
7. Twelve-ounce pound cake
6. Diet ice cream
5. Rap music
4. Working vacation
3. Exact estimate
2. Religious tolerance

And the Number one top OXY-Moron
1. Microsoft Works

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:49
TZADEAK* (@ Old Gold... Gold indeed down today.... good call yesterday .....) ID#372344:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:47
Straddler (Why the Surprise at Gold tanking) ID#280215:
I've posted a handfull of times cautioning that this last rise since the 12th was on falling open interest ( short-covering ) . I received a few objections to my comments stating that for example ( paraphrasing ) : Larry Williams is one of the greatest futures traders ever, and he says falling open interest on rising prices is actually very bullish instead of bearish as everyone thinks. Me thinks that Larry might be losing some money today.

Normally, when prises rise due to short covering ( falling open interest ) on very low volume, prices will completely retrace the rise. This occurred in Decembers little rally. In our January rally, the rise has been on very high volume, indicating panic short covering. This indicates that MAYBE, a change in market tone is occurring and prices will eventually reverse the trend. But there needs to be a retrace/confirmation of the change in tone.

I have not seen any follow thru NEW BUYING ( rising prices on rising open interest ) yet. The latest rise will have to retrace a portion and possibly retest the lows since no new buyers seem to want to come in yet. Then if the tone has indeed changed, new buying will come in after the retest. This in combination with short covering for those who are still short, will rocket the price up. But patience is needed to retest the lows and verify if the trend has indeed changed or not. Remember, trading isn't really based on what the market fundamentals are, but what they are PERCEIVED to be by the market..

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:45
A.Goose () ID#20137:
Last Updated Tue Feb 3 19:45:00 1998 CET

Description Value Change
Gold Spot 294.35 8.60 2.84%
Silver Spot 6.63 0.28 4.41%

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:41
pyramid (News Clipping ) ID#217268:
A relative recently sent me a news clipping from a small town newspaper. This newspaper usually posts mostly AP newswire material. My understanding of the date of the article is last week.


GENEVA -- A mountain lake held back by an unstable natural dam in Central Asia could cause a huge natural disaster, experts say. No one is certain how to prevent it.

Lake Sarez lies high in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan, an area that has been rattled by at least three dozen earthquakes since 1990. The 37-mile-long lake itself was formed by a quake in 1911.

If the dam were to break, experts say a wall of water would threaten parts of Tajikistan, Afganistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

The U.N. Department of Humanitarian Affairs, a Geneva-based group that coordinates U.N. relief operations, says such an event could easily become the deadliest natural disaster in history.

Although predicting the precise event of a dam break is difficult, international experts are urging governments to take action to prepare.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:40
cmh (old news (oxymoronics)) ID#333232:
Russia Says Diplomacy Working in Iraq

Query: Russia+Iraq

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:39
John Disney__A (Hepnatz de horrordorm - pee off) ID#24135:
For Bear - naise
I vote for you to get kicked off
1. You stole someone else's moniker
2. You talk boring racist crap
3. I can outjump you
4. you know zilch about where gold's going -

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:37
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
Myrmidon, JTF -- News is irrelevant! You'll NEVER hear it in time to catch the market move. The only 'news' in the markets that is relevant over the short term is the price vs. however one charts. Also, many times when you finally DO hear the news, it is time to 'fade' it!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:34
6pak (Federal Reserve Corporation @ Open Market Committee at 2:30 p.m. Wed. announcement.) ID#335190:
February 3, 1998
Fed seen holding rates steady, eyeing Asia impact

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The Federal Reserve was set to hold key interest rates steady this week as it waits for the effects of Asia's financial turmoil to hit the booming economy, dampening inflationary pressures in their wake.

The central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee was to convene at 2:30 p.m. EST Tuesday to kick off its two-day meeting. No announcement was expected before about 2:15 p.m. EST ) Wednesday.

Gauging the extent of the slowdown that Asia's financial woes will inflict on the U.S. economy was likely to consume most of the Fed committee's time, parts of which will be devoted to drawing up the economic forecasts and money supply targets that the Fed has to present to Congress under the Humphrey-Hawkins act.

Reading between the lines of Greenspan's usually opaque remarks, some economists said they detected even more than that -- a notion the Fed chairman may have shifted his sights from the age-old fight against rising inflation toward the challenge of how to keep the economy on its current even keel.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:33
Ziva (Bernatz COOL DOWN, on a day like today we need a good joke! at least U R NOT a SPACE CADET !) ID#302251:
An old man goes to a church, and is making a confession:

Man: Father, I am 75 years old. I have been married for 50 years.
All these years I had been faithful to my wife,
but yesterday I was intimate with an 18 year old.

Father: When was the last time you made a confession?

Man: I never have, I am Jewish.

Father: Then why are telling me all this?

Man: I am telling everybody ...

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:33
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
Ziva -- For most normal people, a move of 7-8 bucks wouldn't be necessary to determine a direction, short term or otherwise. If there are some here that care but don't pay attention to little trendline breakage details, they then should not be crying. I try to let the market TELL me what it is going to do, and I try to closely approximate the when. Judging the point of the triangle gold was at last nite, it gave very good odds of an imminent break, and one that could have gone either way. And one more thing about triangles; Quite often they'll do a 'whip-saw' on you! You have my permission to go ahead and try to wag the dog! Good luck.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:27
TZADEAK* (Gold down...cont'd...) ID#372344:
To continue with possible agenda by AG, the US economy appears to
be weakening, housing starts down over 9% lowest in many years,
add this to the Asian effect to be felt by next month, and the stage is set for a at least 2 or 3 interest rate cust by AG which will certainly weaken the US$ further, since Japan is at about 1 1/2% and Germany at about
3 1/2% , US interest rates will have to come down to avoid a possible
Deflationary spiral, but remember, the Fed NEVER does anything on it's
own, the markets must force the issue and IMHO it most certainly will.
So then if Gold is to make a move to the upside, better for AG to
begin at 285-290 and rise up to 330 or so,+$40 than to have it move
from 306 to 350+ where Gold can possibly get away from them....
All of course JMHV

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:20
sweat (Allen) ID#23782:
It seems to be an analysis that would eliminate over trading. Perhaps 5 to 6 trades in ones lifetime? Am I understanding the idea correctly?
That would help me!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:17
bernatz du ventadorm (Bart Kitner, we have been on this merry-go-round once before) ID#259191:

I really don't think you can afford to keep kicking me off, since I have
so much useful insight into the direction of gold. Now that I have
demonstrated so convincingly and so repeatedly that I am the
pre-eminent analyst at this site re the short and long term
direction of gold, I wonder if you held another election
how many people would vote for my banishment this time.
I dare say it would be much less than 85%, provided you
conducted it fairly and allowed only one vote per person.

Why don't you ever threaten to kick other people off, like
the oldman who hides behind a handle to lob off-topic comments
about women in the military or minority murder rates into a
gold discussion? I only reciprocate to show him how offensive
his comments are to rational individuals, and how inappropriate
they are in an ostensible gold forum.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:17
John Disney__A (Watch it little feller) ID#24135:
Brother Oris
Panic is good idea I think because
gold/silver ratio looks a mess. Also
think silver will top out about 6.5.
Believe a certain little annoyance
is arising on the border with dwarfland.
Please move in peacekeepers and kick
@ss. We want peace in the middle east.
I want to maintain truce but please see
recent provocative post.. Small @ss
requires kicking. Things bad enough without that
I dont have any deeps as I said many
times but dont like Harm0ny off as I
have lots of that.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:16
TZADEAK* (@ Gold down.....thoughts....) ID#372344:
Neophyte, that is a well thought out and reasoned probability on the
part of the Koreans...I noticed mention of the Gold collections drying up...
But I also feel that it serve AG's agenda in that it appears that the US$ is weakening, be it due to the iminent air strikes vs Iraq and it's certain
complications,or even if the opposite occurs, no strikes, the US would
then appear more and more impotent... A no win situation for the US....
As someone mentioned earlier the cast is's a matter of short time....

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:14
JTF (Gold and SEAsia) ID#57232:
All: I have two concerns to generate some thoughts.

First -- why is gold going down? I plan to hang in there, and buy more when it bottoms. But the more important reason is: Why?

Is there a distress sale going on?

Is some CB in dire straights?

Or is it simply the gold shorts trying again.

I think we need to be on the alert for hidden problems that might come around to bite us -- like hidden financial crisis in Japan, a pending China devaluation ( ? ) , or a gold fire sale in South America.

I think the only real risk to the gold bug now is a financial or market collapse. Otherwise, gold/gold stocks are goin to be an excellent investment over the next 1 or 1 1/2 years!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:14
Avalon (Dow/Gold Ratio) ID#254269:

Allen ( USA ) . Donald has two charts that he mailed to me; one is from 1903 to the present and the other is a more detailed recent D/G chart from July 1997 to present. When he and I first conversed about the D/G
ratio, I aksed him what it had been typically over a long time period and his response was about 5 . I am not a technical charting sort of guy but
it is quite impressive to see both of these charts. On the longer term
chart, it looks as though it hit a recent low of 1.4 back in January 1980.
On the more recent chart, it is quite impressive to see the daily swings just since last July. The D/G hit a low of 23 just after the Hong Kong crash and of course yesterday it was 26.76. As I sais, I am not a technical guy and I have to read your post very carefully, to make sure I understand it, but I think you are correct.
Of course, if there were a 1500 point drop in the Dow with no change in gold, , that would immediately bring the ratio much closer to 20, which would be a significant change.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:14
Ziva (ahaaaam) ID#302251:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:00
Eldorado ( @the scene ) ID#213265:
What's everybody crying about? .....
I said a move either Up or DOWN was imminent.
Did it all fall on deaf ears? .........

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:08
Year2000 (Maybe this explains why gold is being sold....) ID#228100:
The Russians claim that they have resolved the crisis with
Iraq. Apparently the only source for this info is CNN. I can't find any similiar story on UPI, Reuters, etc....

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:02
Digdeep (Why) ID#267276:
Just signed on , why is gold getting killed?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 13:00
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
What's everybody crying about? A number of good posts last nite alluded to some weakness in gold. I said a move either Up or DOWN was imminent. Did it all fall on deaf ears? Pay attention! Well, lo and behold, it busted to the south side. Did you cover? Probably not. I expect this move to last into the end of the week. Oh, one more thing; I view silver as getting 'toppy', though nothing is proven yet. Just watch for ANY inordinate weakness that might be a prelude of another ski-slope! I personally anticipate viewing any silver numbers at/below todays current low as a potential for 'trouble'. As usual, all caveats apply.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:59
A.Goose () ID#20137:

Tuesday February 3, 11:16 am Eastern Time

Silver soars, vulnerable gold falling back

Traders said the market was affected by news that a campaign by local banking institutions in South Korea to collect gold from private citizens had
gathered over 161 tonnes worth more than $1.5 billion.

``We broke through a trendline and it is not boding well for the yellow metal at all,'' one dealer said.

Another dealer said gold would now probably return to levels just above $290.

``Gold looks like it has run its course for the short term on the upside. Gold will probably come back lower, probably to the low $290s,'' the dealer

The South Korean gold will be exported by Daewoo Corp ( 03810.KS ) until mid-February. Already 56 tonnes had been exported and a trader with
Daewoo said the company was co-operating with some major international banks to ensure it did not have an impact on prices.

Tuesday February 3, 6:29 am Eastern Time

S.Korea news dents gold, silver attracts buyers

LONDON, Feb 3 ( Reuters ) - Gold headed lower on Tuesday after news that South Korea had collected 161 tonnes intended for distress sales, but
the focus of the market was the continued strength in silver, dealers said.

Gold fixed at $299.50 an ounce in the morning, down from Monday afternoon's $301.50, after an overnight rise to $303 gave way amid Asian and
European selling.

News that campaigns by South Korean banks had gathered 161 tonnes of gold worth more than $1.5 billion from private citizens nudged the spot
price in the direction it was already heading.

The metal was last at $300.20/$300.70, versus its Monday London close of $301.90/$302.40.

``It's taken me a little by surprise, it's an amazing amount of gold,'' said one London dealer, adding that spot gold's relative indifference to the news
was due to the action seen in silver.

`It's difficult to focus on gold today with the attention on silver, so the reaction has been pretty limited,'' he said.

South Korea's Housing and Commercial Bank has led the gold-collection campaign through January to help raise foreign currency for the
cash-strapped country.

The effort followed agreement on a $60-billion bailout package for South Korea's teetering economy led by the International Monetary Fund.

One trader at Tong Yang Global in South Korea said domestic interest in bullion had dried up during the campaign, which the bank intends to
continue for a second-round from February 5.

Scrap gold from places like South Korea is arriving in Europe at a rate of a tonne or so per day, according to Alan Wright, chief executive Gold
Fields of South Africa Ltd [Nasdaq:GLDFY - news].

Wright told Reuters at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos on Monday that he thought gold prices had bottomed out but would
remain volatile until the European Central Bank declares what gold it will hold in reserves.

Only this would remove skittishness in the market, despite output cuts implemented or planned by South African producers, including his company,
he said.

Tuesday February 3, 3:42 am Eastern Time

Gold lower in early Europe but seen supported

ZURICH, Feb 3 ( Reuters ) - Gold was under pressure in early Europe on Tuesday, with some room for further downside seen but overall the price
appeared supported above $300.00.

Gold was quoted in early business at $301.50/$302.00 an ounce versus $301.90/$302.40 at the London close.

Gold could crumble a bit, one trader said.

But he added selling appeared to be limited with activity dampened by strong focus on surging world share markets.

Traders said any negative impact from worries about possible central bank gold sales could be offset by belief the southeast Asian crisis may not
depress physical demand by as much as previously thought.

Comments from the Goose:

I believe that there were posts over the last 2 days noting that neither the German nor the French Central banks had ANY interest in selling Gold. Could someone repost those ( they were comments from DAVOS I believe ) . It seems to me this is just another PR effort to drive bullion down. The complete South Korean story just sounds fishy ( collect tons of gold then drive down the price to sell it at a low to pay off a small part of your debts ) . IMHO.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:59
Neophyte (What is the point of the Korean announcement?) ID#390249:
Why would the Koreans announce they collected 161 tons and that they're going to start another gold drive tomorrow? As I recall, they stated a couple of weeks ago that they were not going to announce what they collected because it had too much of an impact on the price.
Today they announce this incredible haul along with the caveat that they are cooperating with International Banks so as not to affect the price of gold. How would cooperating with an International Bank lessen the price impact?

Could they be 'sending' - as opposed to 'selling' - this gold to Europe to cover their gold loans? Could they be trying to talk the price down so that they could get more gold at cheaper prices to cover loans?

This might be wishful thinking on my part, but it sure sounds fishy.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:57
Allen(USA) (Random thoughts and senseless hacks of tightness... (DOW/Gold ratio)) ID#246224:
Can anyone email me daily DOW from 1900 to present as a zip file? Ditto request for Donald's DOW/Gold Ratio on daily basis since 1900. I was cookin' some numbers last night and thought I've come up with an interesting scheme to use it as a buy/sell indicator.

Here's the basics. Looking at how many years the ratio is above a certain level.
DOW/Gold value % years above this level

5 52%
10 29%
15 18%
20 13%
25 3%

Its interesting to note that there is a pattern in the ratio that goes like this REST, ADVANCE ( over long time ) , DECLINE ( over short time, usually about 30% of the time it took to advance to the high ) . The REST phase is 7 to 10 years occuring twice in the past 94 years. This phase sees a low ( usually 3 ) , a top up to a ratio of 5, and a drop back to the low ( usually 3 ) . The ADVANCE is usually long on the order of 10 to 25 years. The decline about 3 to 5 years. The decline typically goes back to 3. The first advance was 10 years starting about 1919. The second advance 24 years starting in 1949. The third advance from 1982 to present, a period of 16 years. The 1930's decline lasted 3 years down to 3. The second decline 5 years down to 1.5 or so. We have not yet seen the third decline ( back to 3 or 5? ) .

In thinking about this I see a ratio of 5 as basicly neutral, 2 to 3 as a low and 25 and above as a high. If the pattern holds true than we might expect to see a decline to a ratio of 3 over the next 4 to 5 years or so. From current levels considering a equal proportion of advance in the price of gold and decline in the price of DOW we might see ranges like these;

Gold DOW D/G
2/98 300 8100 27

4 years ( ? ) 500 2500 5
1000 5000 5

833 2500 3
1667 5000 3

It is interesting to note that the D/G ratio never really descends gradually. Its more like a drop off of a precipice. Whereas there are steps and plateaus which occure in the advance, there is little of that in the decline.

What I'm thinking is this: SELL DOW AND BUY GOLD on a decline of about 15% of the recent change from the up change ( of the D/G ) ; BUY DOW AND SELL GOLD on a advance of 15% of the recent change from the decline change.

Example: bottom starting at 3 top at 27 = change of 24, SELL DOW BUY GOLD at drop from 27 to 24.4 ( 24*0.15=3.6 ) otherwise hold tight in DOW.

Example: top starting at 5 bottom at 3 = change of 2, BUY DOW SELL GOLD at rise from 3 to 3.3 ( 2*0.15=0.3 ) otherwise hold tight in GOLD.

This is basicly taking advantage of the idea of contrary movement between these two markets. Switch from Gold to DOW to catch the DOW when its ascending ( relative to gold ) and then switch from DOW to Gold to catch Gold when it is ascending ( relative to DOW ) . Only using the D/G ratio and the 15% rules I found a 9800% increase in value using this over a 28 year period from 1905 to 1933. Need to look at this MUCH closer. But this might be an interesting way to waste a few hours of speculative thinking.

One thing that interests me about this line of thinking is that Gold is being used as a bank and fixed point for measuring the relative risk/reward of moving to/from the DOW ( as representative of stox in general ) . Since Gold should, in the long run, adjust to inflation of paper money this removes inflation risk ( almost ) . At least in the USA if inflation is a problem then the DOW basicly seems to stagnate until it ( inflation ) is beaten back. Once inflation has been tamed than the DOW seems to be re-energized. Gold may help in detecting this transition and in protecting one's wealth from inflation/deflation while waiting for favorable environments to reappear ( if they ever do ) .


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:51
Barb Hughes (@GFD,Snowbird) ID#20783:

Go to:

Scroll down to Metals Silver

Notice forward months are selling for less than current month March...

Take care...Barb

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:47
JTF (AG, money and credit) ID#57232:
D.A.: You are probably knee deep in silver by now! Thanks for your 9:07 post on AG. I agree with you that he should retire now that he has apparently saved the world from financial immolation. The only problem now is that the solution to putting out the Asian fires was a flood of US dollars, as well as a boost to our national debt. I wouldn't want to be Fed Chairman when that eventually comes home to roost. y2k?

I agree with you that we must separate money supply from credit somehow. I was thinking about that, and I think the solution will be using money that is firmly attached to a scarce commodity such as gold, and then work out a formula to allow for an average inflation rate for that currency, as well as rules for how much the M2, M3 can be amplified relative to the money supply base. These rules would have to be strictly ahered to on an international basis -- sort of like an International Bureau of Standards for money supply and credit. Fluctuations in the value of a given currency could be allowed by using gold reserves as a buffer.

By the way, there is no need to expand or contract the world currency for international trade -- only the individual currencies for each country in relation to their economic strength. This world currency should be rigidly linked to so many ounces of gold, just like the BIS does. If this were so, much of our problems in SE Asia would have been minimized.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:46
TZADEAK* (@ Looking at the highly promoted S.A DROOY only DOWN 40% in a week.... ) ID#372344:
I guess they are still looking for the missing 100 MILLION OUNCES!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:46
refer (Looks like were gonna have ANOTHER buying opportunity!) ID#41229:
Retracement looks normal to me, as long as we don't close under $275, also I think that the POG will launch out of no where, all we are seeing is what the market place perception is, gold drops on news of amount of physical collected by S. Korea. The perception will change when supply and demand fundamentals takes over, as soon as people figure out physical demand is greater than paper selling, when the paper traders go for physical I think they will find a suprise! I will not make a prediction of major move by the end of the week, but by years end is pretty safe bet.


Read your post stating all the printed money out in the market place, I would interject that this money does not replace the money that has been lost in the asia devaluation. Not sure how much banks can leverage, meaning, for every dollar they have, how many can they spend. I would suggest that the financial institutions have increased their leverage, along with the govs. Remember to keep the bubble from collasping they must keep inflating the bubble.

Also other factors such as Clinton approval rating is totally because of the GREAT ECONOMY, Clinton could get away with just about anything as long as everybody is fat and happy. Everything the administration has came out with since State of the Union speech has been positive economy news and figures, eventhough it goes against experts. You can bet as soon as economy turns, more pressure on Clinton will be the result.

As for as I'm concerned, this whole event has shown me that U.S. at such a state of decay, we will not be a world power for long. It will not matter what happens to Clinton, the cast is set. We have followed the same road as the Roman Empire. Woe is me.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:40
Dr. BOB (Another BUY opportunity) ID#270295:
I or we must be gluttons for punishment I seem to be happiest when GOLD is dropping like rock. I will not rest until my daughters entire college fund is in precious metals...Anyone know a good therapist News::::Tuesday February 3, 11:16 am Eastern Time

Silver soars, vulnerable gold falling back

LONDON, Feb 3 ( Reuters ) - Silver fixed at a new nine-year high on Tuesday but gold began
retreating from recent peaks and traders said bullion could now again test its lows.

Gold was fixed in the afternoon at $298.35 from the morning fix of $299.70. It was last bid at
$297.00/$298.20 from Monday's close at $301.90/$302.40.

Traders said the market was affected by news that a campaign by local banking institutions in
South Korea to collect gold from private citizens had gathered over 161 tonnes worth more than
$1.5 billion.

``We broke through a trendline and it is not boding well for the yellow metal at all,'' one dealer

Another dealer said gold would now probably return to levels just above $290.

``Gold looks like it has run its course for the short term on the upside. Gold will probably come
back lower, probably to the low $290s,'' the dealer said.

The South Korean gold will be exported by Daewoo Corp ( 03810.KS ) until mid-February.
Already 56 tonnes had been exported and a trader with Daewoo said the company was
co-operating with some major international banks to ensure it did not have an impact on prices.

Silver stormed higher to be fixed at the highest level since November 1988 at $6.385 an ounce
against Monday's figure of $6.25.

Spot silver was last bid at $6.56/$6.58

``Silver continues to be very much supported by an extremely tight forward situation with
forwards getting tighter this morning,'' another dealer said.

She said the one-month lease rate for silver was now around 30 percent against 20 percent on
Tuesday morning.

Platinum and palladium had a quiet day and dealers expected this to continue until some news
emerged out of Russia on deliveries of the two metals.

Platinum was fixed unchanged in the afternoon at $387 while palladium also fixed unchanged at
$238.50 per troy ounce. Platinum was last bid at $388.50 and palladium at $237.50/$239.25.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:40
TZADEAK* (@ US$ Down vs Yen, Mark and SF...and Gold down 7$? Looks like a fake-out....) ID#372344:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:39
John Disney__A (A horror story ?- see my garage - and these mines) ID#24135:
Looking at NA gold mines
Just to make everybody feel better in these terrible
times ........................................
Lets look at some well known and well loved North
American Mines. I have data on their revenue, their
profit or loss, amd their gold production. I will
look at 1995,1996, and the 1st 9 months of 1997.
All numbers are mill$, unless noted.
Echo Bay
revenue 361
profit ( 50 )
cost 411
production 754
cost = 544$/oz
1996 Same format as above
( 176 )
cost = 514/769=669$/oz
( 365 )
cost = 589/551= 1069$/oz

Royal Oak
cost =185/371=498$/oz
( 6 )
cost =261/389 = 671$/oz

( 62.5 )
cost = 223/284 = 785$/oz

Similar calculation yields
1995 - 410$/oz
1996 - 716$/oz
1997 - 528 $/oz
1995 - 420$/oz
1996 - 362$/oz
1997 - 496$/oz

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:38
snowbird (Silver lease rates down 50%.Please explain) ID#220325:
Would someone please tell me the significance of the silver lease rates dropping from 11.10% last night to 5.83% this morning. My understanding was that silver goes higher if the lease rates go up. Does this mean that silver is about to drop to coincide with the drop in lease rates? Any help would be appreciated.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:37
mozel (Future Price of Gold; Gold Strike Inflation; Soros & Constitutional Gold) ID#153102:
CJS: In the wee hours memory failed. BIS does indeed account its gold franc capital at US$208 per oz. I think I confused BIS with Swiss banking which I think uses about $77 per oz. But maybe it was another CB. In any case, as I opined, metal loans are hugely profitable to CB's because of the variance between official and market valuations of bank gold. And, these loans along with CB sales will continue to overhang the gold market so long as there is a possibility that greenback government will prevail on other governments to disconnect gold from their banking and currency.

D.A. I'd like to see a system where there was a clear delineation between 'money' and credit. Historically the way this is done is to make gold money and everything else credit. The shortcomings of using gold as money lie in its unpredictability of supply. If a new metalurgical technique were uncovered, or some giant deposit found, it would undermine the entire system. Historically, gold based economies have suffered great inflations after big gold rushes. The modern way around this problem would be to securitize all manor of tradeable commodities. Money would effectively be warehouse reciepts for the commodities.

Colonial Massachusetts scrip was promise of delivery receipts for actual commodities. It worked fine until other colonies just printed fiat scrip in competition with it. Then bad money drove good out of circulation.

I think you are going to be hard put to provide any facts for your opinion that gold based economies suffer from gold strike inflation. Tell us how big a strike it would take to add 5% to the gold inventory private and official in the US. And that's a one time inflation. Conjecture about extracting gold from sea water or creating gold by moving electrons around is just that. Gold is less rare today than at any previous time in history. So what ? It's relative rarity has nothing to do with its utility as a medium of exchange and account. Its value as money is purely and simply that what you withdraw is exactly the same as what you deposited regardless of the time interval. It is this incorruptibility of gold to the effects of time and nature which makes gold the ultimate honest money.

Soros proposes currency exchange controls and a world lender of last resort. Schultz, Wriston, et all propose market rigor for currency valuations, no world lender of last resort, and the replacement of gold on deposit as the measure or honesty with something they call the information standard. Notice that both proposals require you to surrender all of your privacy.

Gold is Constitutional lawful money in the USA and the greenback is martial law legal tender. For Americans, what shall be money is not an exercise in theories of economics; ultimately it will determine whether we live in liberty and with security of property under just law or under despotism.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:34
Selby () ID#286230:
korondy: Thanks for the site and the instructions--I'll look around there later today.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:33
GFD (Thanks Barb!!) ID#424345:
Does anyone have a bleeping clue what is happening with silver By the looks of things there is something of a breakdown ( breakup ) happening. Does anyone have London or other sources of lease rates? Bart shows lease rates at around 5.8 down from 11% ( 1 month ) yet there were other reports of lease rates as high as 20%. Perhaps this is another London vs NY thing...

Looks like a potential unpleasantness for the plunge protection team..... ( where that war in albania when we need it!! )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:32
Myrmidon (Is it Korea dumping for sure?) ID#345176:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:29
oris (John Disney) ID#238422:
My brother John,

Do you have an idea what's going on?
It looks like some real big guys
are dumping gold today...I'm about
to panic. Correction on the way up
is usually normal, but this time I really
don't like it. I'm worried...

Tell me not to panic, please...

Your cool, but currently panicing brother Oris.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:24
Myrmidon (@ aurophile) ID#345176:

We will hang-in-there until Feb 20. As John Disney says, some develop the virtue of patience, so essential nowdays.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:23
Barb Hughes (@ALL) ID#20783:

There has been a 12 cent difference at times between London Spot and NY Spot today...which will account for the differences in reporting. Depends if source is quoting NY or London SPOTS.
Take care...Barb

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:22
seaminer (korondy) ID#287123:


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:19
Myrmidon (Sunshine Mining News Release) ID#345176:

On January 29 the SSC Company Press Release states:

A recent industry report covering North American silver producers said Sunshine Mining has the highest percentage of its revenues from silver ( 83% ) out of the group that produced more than 2.5 million ounces of silver last year. Sunshine was ranked second highest in percentage of revenues from silver compared to all North American silver producers.

Fellows, I am going right now Sunshine.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:18
aurophile (gold correction) ID#177109:
Gold is following the script I outlined in the Year End Review, some of which was covered here at Kitco. If the script is correct ( and not just a lucky shot so far ) ,a major bottom should occur at about February 20th. That date could be the end of the long bear market which began on September 23, 1980.

Some parts of the script were put up last weekend at

All in my humble opinion, and I reserve the right to be wrong...;- )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:15
korondy (Seaminer -- ABX) ID#222186:
CAPE TOWN, Feb 3 ( Reuters ) -- Barrick Gold Corp ( NYSE:ABX - news; ABX.TO - news ) , North America's largest gold producer, said on
Tuesday that it had met its 1997 targets and was confident of the future despite slumping gold prices.

The Toronto-based gold producer is due to release its year-end results next week.

``I can tell you we met all our 1997 targets and we feel very confident of our future,'' Alan Hill, Barrick's vice-president of corporate
development, told a mining conference in Cape Town.

Hill later told Reuters the company had met its targets on costs and production, forecast at about three million ounces of gold in 1997.

Barrick posted a net loss of $315 million in the third quarter of 1997, which included a $385 million charge to cover restructuring costs.

Barrick was the first major North American producer to concede the gold price doldrums would last longer than expected.

Last September it announced plans to close half its 10 mines under a two-year plan aimed at boosting production from its lower-cost
properties. Roughly 10 million ounces of production has been hedged at $400 an ounce until 2000.

Hill said the company's plan to produce 3.5 million ounces of gold at a cash cost of $150 per ounce by 1999 was on track.

He said the company would continue to focus on a three-pronged strategy for growth through acquisitions, exploration of existing properties
and joint ventures.

The Canadian miner is not part of any joint ventures in Africa, but Hill said it is an area of interest.

``Though gold is weak, Barrick is strong. Our actions are not constrained by the gold price,'' he said.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:12
A.Goose () ID#20137:
Futures Contracts
Updated as of: Feb 03, 1998 @ 12:07 pm ET

Sym. Company Name Last Change %Chg High Low Vol.

GC J8 Apr. Gold 2992 -58 -1.9 3058 2987 14.6K
SI H8 March Silver 6485 +237 +3.8 6500 6215 16.3K
HG H8 March High Grade Copper 7660 -225 -2.9 7900 7590 4.19K
PL J8 April Platinum 3865 -55 -1.4 3880 3850 986
PA H8 March Palladium 23700 -215 -0.9 23800 23500 521

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:10
TZADEAK* (@ Gold ....PPT very hard at work....) ID#372344:
In the following Url you will see that A.Wright Pres of SA Goldfields
Now biggest Gold producer says that his Co. has implimented Big cuts in output of Gold, among many other mines worldwide, however, that is not what theyare playing up in the mass media, instead playing up the the 161 tons of Gold from Korea that, apperantly has been and is being sold a ton a day in Europe,according to Mr. Wright......I noticed his new shares of Goldfields took a big dive yesterday on it's initial listing.....

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:06
Carl (Avalon, Re your irritation. Isn't it amazing that so many people) ID#333131:
think they are entitled to what they get as a gift?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 12:03
korondy (SELBY: Ratios) ID#222186:
Selby, you can get whatever ratios you want at

Examples ( notice the space before the operator ) :
SI8H /GC8J in the symbol box will give you silver / gold
INDU /GC8J will give you the Dow Ind. in oz. of gold
XAU.X /GC8J will give you the XAU in oz. of gold

You get the idea. In the dialog box labelled Time, enter the number of minutes for intraday charts, or D for daily, W for weekly, M for monthly, etc.

One of my most favorite ratios I use for short-term tading is:
PREM.X /TRIN,3 ( you can type in the time interval in the symbol box followed by a comma -- no spaces ) which is a short-term directional indicator for the market: the S&P500 premium ( futures over cash ) over the TRIN. You can also watch the premium, which is SP8H -INX and it is equal to PREM.X

I hope you find it useful. I do.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:59
geoffs (Gold -7.60 Whats happening ?) ID#424187:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:59
Avalon (gold/silver ratio) ID#254269:
John Disney; lowest ratio recently according to my records was 45.90 on 12/30/97. I have been keeping it since 12/22 and have every day except for two days.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:55
BillD (Silver up .26 at 6.61) ID#258427:
as per EBN...Bart's PM prices are not up-to-date.....

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:50
Myrmidon (Some reasons why Americans avoid SA gold stocks.) ID#345176:

Some people who have fallen in love with SA gold stocks, or are pushing them in this forum, they may consider that some of us have reasons of not wanting them, the reasons being:

1. Investors like to invest in their own country if this is possible,
and this is why US and Canadian investors prefer NA gold mines. There
are also plenty to choose from.

2. South African investments were tarnished in the past when US
sanctions were imposed on SA. Investors don't easily forget. Then it
was politically incorrect to invest in SA when major US corporations
were pulling out personnel and closing offices. The fear always
exists that SA will get out of line with US policies and a repeat of
the past will occur.

3. North American investors prefer to see financial results in $US
instead of Rands. Converting Rands to $US is confusing, one has a
foggy picture of the stock performance.

4. No need to take additional risk due to currency fluctuations.

5. Perception is that SA is less politically stable than the US or
Canada. If riots occur in SA ( as have in the past ) some mine workers
could be shot or the mines destroyed.

6. Some SA mine names are hard to pronounce. Why invest in a company
whose name you can't spell?

7. The diamond cartel perception of SA and now the developing gold
mining cartel are not popular with American investors. Free market
and competition are not the same in SA as in NA.

8. Harder to get news updates of SA mines.

9. Risk of nationalization of SA mines if violence errupts.

10. In NA an investor can pick up the phone and talk to a company
official; much harder to do with SA.

11. Options are available of the major NA mining companies. This helps
hedging and taxes.

12. If investing in SA gold stocks is essential for whatever reason, then
pick a company like ASA.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:46
Selby () ID#286230:
John Disney: Is there a site that provides a chart of the silver/gold ratio somewhere on the web that you know of?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:44
Selby () ID#286230:
Midwesterner: Thanks that was exactly what I was looking for.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:44
Avalon (things that annoy me) ID#254269:

lurkers who don't post a d****d thing and then jump all over everyone else..

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:41
A.Goose () ID#20137:
Thanks Hopefull.

Last Updated Tue Feb 3 17:30:00 1998 CET

Description Value Change
Gold Spot 297.25 5.70 1.88%
Silver Spot 6.59 0.24 3.78%

Silver looking stronger here. Is kitoc broken again?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:41
seaminer () ID#287123:

Why is ABX dropping so much when they are supposed to announce earnings this week?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:39
John Disney__A (gold/silver ratio) ID#24135:
for a goose
I worry over the gold/silver ratio -
believe recent low was about 46.25 - I dont
want to see this break - I also dont like
this move right after Davos. Maybe some
info was exchanged there that was different
from official announcements. I get that
feeling like when the Godfather kisses you on the
cheek and offers you a ride in his car. I
hope it goes away. Where is everybody
Is it my imagination or has the site become
terribly boring all of a sudden

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:37
Midwesterner (Shelby - 10:49 / Nasdaq Graphs) ID#346458:
Try the following for the Nasdaz Charts. Also can get Canadian quotes at this location if interested.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:34
HopeFull (A GOOSE) ID#402148:
Never short a quiet market.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:28
miles__A (Funny old world -) ID#351224:
Avalon - the wackiness continues...arrived in Sydney myself 22 years ago. In deference to the barron - 'what do you think of the idea of a possible collapse of Japanese and Chinese banking systems ?
could happen.
PS Living in Adelaide now.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:28
cmh (misc) ID#333232:
Highlights from a feast of ideas at Davos forum

S.Korea news dents gold, silver attracts buyers

CORRECTED-S.Korea news dents gold, silver attracts

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:27
A.Goose () ID#20137:
This strong drop in gold looks to be on small volume. Comments.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:24
A.Goose (Not sure we can trust Bart's pm quotes?) ID#20137:
Tue Feb 3 17:15:00 1998 CET

Description Value Change
Gold Spot 297.25 5.70 1.88%
Silver Spot 6.56 0.21 3.31%

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:18
Trinovant (Russia: Storm clouds gathering....) ID#358318:

Foreign Currency

And now for something completely different.

Customer: I wish to complain about this gold what I purchased not half an hour ago from this very boutique.

Owner: Oh yes, the, uh, the golden eagle...What's, uh... What's wrong
with it?

Customer: I'll tell you what's wrong with it, my lad. 'E's dead,
that's what's wrong with it!

Owner: No, no, 'e's uh, ... he's resting.

Customer: Look, matey, I know a dead investment when I see one, and I'm
looking at one right now.

Owner: No no he's not dead, he's, he's restin'! Remarkable coin, the
golden eagle, isn'it, ay? Beautiful plumage!

Mr. Praline: The plumage don't enter into it. It's stone dead.

Owner: Nononono, no, no! 'E's resting!...

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:13
Carl (Cyclist) ID#333131:
I'm not a trader, but if I were, I'd take this as a fake out. With silver strong and a weak looking dollar, I don't look for much weakness in gold. But then, I'm not on top of this like you are. Good luck.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:10
Avalon (Posts.) ID#254269:

HopeFull. It absolutely amazes me that the lurkers who never post anything to this forum have the time to criticise others who may have been engaged in some idle chatter. Why don't you go ahead and post something ?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:09
HopeFull (Silver Stocks) ID#402148:
..are showing a remarkable lack of response to silvers accent. Could it be cash flows out of precious metals funds leaves no dough to ramp silvers stocks up.

Thoughts appreciated.


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:04
...only please. You are wasting our time otherwise.

Coal Barron

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 11:01
Avalon (old school tie; ) ID#254269:
miles_A; I went to high school in Sydney, OZ; For a minute there, I thought you were an old friend of mine who I haven't seen in 20 years !

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 10:57
miles__A (Spooky Magnettes and old school tie) ID#351224:
Avalon - Purley, UK, a town much maligned by Monty Python in the Your wife - is she a goer? skit.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 10:53
Cyclist (291) ID#339274:
FWIW.Gold heading towards 290-1.The XAU will
bounce off the 71.5,if not short,it is time
to get out.Objective 70,67 and 65.happy trading

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 10:52
Avalon (miles_A; This is uncanny; what high school did you go to ?) ID#254269:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 10:49
Selby () ID#286230:
Would someone post a URL that provides graphs of NASDAQ stocks?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 10:45
miles__A (Magnettes/Shacks etc) ID#351224:
Avalon. Feel I know you....I had an MG Magnette too - it was a ZB Varitone - dark grey over light grey - into which had been installed an 1800cc MGB motor. Very nice - lots of leather and walnut!! Sold it in 1975 for 25 pounds ( it had a lot of rust! ) . Place I'm thinking of is Kangaroo Island, South AUSTRALIA. best kept secret although Bill Gates knows about it 'cause this week he announced a huge MS/EDS internet base in Adelaide ( capital of South Australia ) though - what if China goes? ?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 10:35
There was a time before market manipulation became the norm
that the laws of supply and demand ruled , inflation was real
and the average price for this commodity was 17.00 dineros per oz.
How come those 10 inch apple pies aren't coming down in price?
The Sunshine SC has come out today in the land of the great lakes.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 10:34
Realistic (Different times...) ID#410194:
Huge amount of traders sold Gold while buying Silver since the begining of trading today.

The current opposite directions of these 2 markets so far today is quite remarkable.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 10:29
ravenfire (hmm...... news....) ID#365190:

gee... didn't we hear this stuff before? must be deja vu...

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 10:26
Year2000 (I don't believe it...) ID#228100:
I leave the place for just a few hours and you guys let the price go down by FOUR BUCKS!! Can’t you guys do anything right? ; )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 10:06
vertigo (@ retrace or correction) ID#42371:
Any views?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 10:04
vronsky (THE 800 POUND GORILLA (Silver)) ID#426220:

SILVER IS SOARING AS I SPEAK! Following is a possible & feasible reason why. As we ALL well know Martin Armstrong of Princeton Economics International ( PEI ) recently published a very biased negative report about SILVER’s prospects. I say “BIASED,” as PEI is allegedly SHORT 500 SILVER CONTRACTS... even the most objective analyst could not prevent a NARROWLY opinionated or negative view of the “poor man’s gold.”

To PEI’s great dismay Ted Butler recently posted a thought-provoking rebuttal to Armstrong’s prejudiced evaluation of SILVER. The title of Butler’s insightful and incisive analysis is “THE 800 POUND GORILLA.” I do NOT know for sure, but quite possibly Martin Armstrong read Butler’s REBUTTAL, and consequently reversed his devastatingly LOSING POSITION FROM SHORT TO LONG SILVER. Tough luck old bean, you should pay more attention to conscientious and objective researchers like Mr. Butler, and less to the political nonsense spewed by Central Bankers, WHO WITHOUT ONE IOTA OF DOUBT HAVE A BIG AX TO GRIND... trying to convince the gullible public that paper is money, and that gold and silver have no value.

THE TRUTH WILL OUT... sooner or later - when the enlightened public parades into gold and silver to preserve the purchasing power of its hard earned savings.

I say without any reservation, “THE 800 POUND GORILLA” is a must read by all!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 10:03
BillD (Where are all my silver bugs?) ID#258427:
Silver still up.18 ... and SSC up 1/8 ...13% ...let's have at least a deep breath .. and a Here!!Here!!...Ted, where are you...DJ, RJ, someone cheer....Go SSC...Go Gold ( Down $4, uh ) ...

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 09:39
vronsky (Macchu Pichu Shack... with a little Pisco-Sours Every Night) ID#426220:

miles__A ( Schultz ) : YOUR “So I'm going to buy a $50,000 shack,...” Actually, I have been thinking along the same lines... and have my eye on the third shack from the bottom left - however, you will need a laptop with good batteries and a small satellite dish for your Internet connection... and a warm sleeping bag for those rather chilly nights {:- ) )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 09:29
Avalon (@ miles_A; Anyone who plans on buying an Austin Healey Sprite Mark 1 is not crazy.) ID#254269:
When I was in high school, one of my very good friends had an MG Magnette, which is the 4 door sedan. This one was British Racing Green and had an 1800 c.c. engine. It was a gorgeous car and who knows what it would be worth today. My own ambition was to have an
MGB, but so far, that has not happened.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 09:28
BillD (Man-O-Man ... looky at Silver) ID#258427:
GOooooo...6.57 up .22 spot ...higher highs, higher lows ...called a BULL MARKET....Go SSC, huh LGB....and er...go gold...

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 09:21
a.j. (Tzadeak's GOLD EARING) ID#257136:
I was interested in your description of the earring when I noticed it in a post at least 60 days ago.
Can't possibly help identify it personally, but if you email me : I think I can give you a couple tips on likely sources for learning the history and/or I.D. of the ring.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 09:21
miles__A (Schultz) ID#351224:
Interesting speech from Schultz and perhaps a good reality check for those in a state of irrational exhuberance. Notice that his speech doesn't include Japan and China, next and the most dangerous of victims in the Asian tiger cull.

Political, racial and financial imperatives will be battling it out from now on.
We cannot expect to predict where this will all lead!
Any one who can will be mega rich
( But is money/gold going to be worth anything in this worst possible scenario? )

So I'm going to buy a $50,000 shack, buy a fishing rod and plant my vegetables. ( Might buy an old Austin Healey Sprite Mk1 and do it up )
Some love;y classical music, a few good books, my internet connection..
Or am I crazy

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 09:07
D.A. (AG) ID#7568:

If I were AG I'd retire, spend lots of time with family and friends and knock a few strokes off my handicap.

As far as what the monetary authorities could do to keep this whole thing from getting silly, I just don't know.

I'd like to see a system where there was a clear delineation between 'money' and credit. Historically the way this is done is to make gold money and everything else credit. The shortcomings of using gold as money lie in its unpredictability of supply. If a new metalurgical technique were uncovered, or some giant deposit found, it would undermine the entire system. Historically, gold based economies have suffered great inflations after big gold rushes. The modern way around this problem would be to securitize all manor of tradeable commodities. Money would effectively be warehouse reciepts for the commodities.

On the credit side of the system, I would push for more laws requiring transparency. If all the loan portfolios of banks were known by everyone, then the system would do a much better job of risk analysis. People would get used to the idea that putting their money ( warehouse receipts ) into a bank, would come with risk.
!!! we interupt this post to bring you the news that the silver market is exploding. See you later.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 09:02
Trinovant (Re: The Contrarian's View...) ID#358318:
- latest monthly issue just appeared at:
featuring 'Ring of Truth', quotes of the month, and 'Is the stock market now too big to fail'?
Good reading. Bearish for equity, bullish for gold.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 08:45
Avalon (Speed; thanks.) ID#254269:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 08:41
Speed (Avalon) ID#286199:
Here is the article, I don't have time to clean it up. hi ho off to work I go. BBL

Who Needs the IMF?



President Clinton and the International Monetary

Fund have shifted into overdrive in their effort to

save the economies of Indonesia, the Philippines,

South Korea and Thailand--or, to be more accurate, to

save the pocketbooks of international investors who

could face a tide of defaults if these markets are not

now shored up. But this must be the last time that

the IMF acts in this capacity. If it is not, further

bailouts, unprecedented in scope, will follow.

Therefore, Congress should allocate no further funds

to the IMF.

It is the IMF's promise of massive

intervention that has spurred a

global meltdown of financial

markets. When such hysteria

sweeps world markets, it becomes

more difficult to do what should

have been done earlier--namely, to

let the private parties most involved

share the pain and resolve their

difficulties, perhaps with the help of

a modest program of public financial

support and policy guidance. With

the IMF standing in the background

ready to bail them out, the parties

at interest had little incentive to take these painful,

though necessary, steps.

Largest Bailout Ever

The $118 billion Asian bailout, which may rise to as

much as $160 billion, is by far the largest ever

undertaken by the IMF. A distant second was the

1995 Mexican bailout, which involved some $30 billion

in loans, mostly from the IMF and the U.S. Treasury.

The IMF's defenders often tout the Mexican bailout as

a success because the Mexican government repaid

the loans on schedule. But the Mexican people

suffered a massive decline in their standard of living

as a result of that crisis. As is typical when the IMF

intervenes, the governments and the lenders were

rescued, but not the people.

The promise of an IMF bailout insulates financiers

and politicians from the consequences of bad

economic and financial practices, and encourages

investments that would not otherwise have been

made. Recall how the Asian crisis came about. Asia's

tiger economies were performing well, with strong

growth, moderate price inflation, fiscal discipline and

high rates of saving. But these countries encountered

a currency crisis because their governments

attempted to maintain an exchange rate pegged to

the U.S. dollar, while conducting monetary policies

that diverged from that of the U.S. Capital inflows

covered up this disparity for a time. But when the

Thai currency wobbled on rumors of exchange controls

and devaluation, the currency markets quickly swept

aside increasingly unrealistic currency values.

This led quickly to a solvency crisis. It became

difficult, if not impossible, to repay loans made in

foreign currency on time. The devaluations shrank the

values of local assets, which were often the product

of speculative excesses, unwise ventures directed by

government, and crony capitalism. The private

lenders and borrowers involved were in deep trouble.

They were, and are, more than ready for money from

the IMF.

The world financial system has changed

fundamentally since 1946, when the Bretton Woods

agreement was approved. The gold standard has

been replaced by the information standard, an iron

discipline that no government can evade. Foreign

exchange rates are now set by tens of thousands of

traders at computer terminals around the globe. Their

judgments about monetary and economic policies are

instantly translated in the cross rates of currencies.

No country can hide from the new global information

standard--but the IMF can lull nations into

complacency by acting as the self-appointed lender of

last resort, a function never contemplated by its

founders. When the day of reckoning finally does

arrive, the needed financial reforms are extremely

difficult politically because they are imposed by the

IMF under duress, rather than undertaken by the

countries themselves. The photograph, widely

published throughout Asia, of Indonesian President

Suharto signing on to IMF conditions with IMF

Managing Director Michel Camdessus standing over

him imperiously reinforces the perception of an

outside institution dictating policy to a sovereign


Even though the IMF recognizes the causes of the

crises and conditions its loans on remedial measures,

many observers believe that these remedies often

make the situation worse. In any event they are

rarely carried out in a timely fashion. There are

already indications that several Asian countries have

violated the terms of their agreements. Furthermore,

IMF-prescribed tax increases and austerity will cause

pain for the people of these nations, producing a

backlash against the West. There is already talk of a

conspiracy to beat down Asian asset values in order

to provide bargains and control for Western investors.

And yet, because these countries are able to avoid

fundamental economic reforms, their currencies

continue to collapse. Indonesia, South Korea and

Thailand have each seen their currencies lose more

than half their value against the U.S. dollar in recent

weeks, despite the promised IMF bailouts. The loans

from the IMF are, in fact, trivial when compared to

the size of the international currency market, in which

some $2 trillion is traded daily. These markets'

instant verdicts on unsound economic and financial

policies overwhelm the feeble efforts of politicians

and bureaucrats.

The IMF's efforts are, however, effective in distorting

the international investment market. Every

investment has an associated risk, and investors

seeking higher returns must accept higher risks. The

IMF interferes with this fundamental market

mechanism by encouraging investors to seek out risky

markets on the assumption that if their investments

turn sour, they still stand a good chance of getting

their money back through IMF bailouts. This kind of

interference will only encourage more crises.

Asian nations are facing financial difficulties not

because outside forces have imposed bad economic

policies on them but because they have imposed

these policies on themselves. The issue is not

whether the IMF can move from country to country

dispensing financial and economic medicine. The

issue is whether the governments in these countries

have the political will to fix problems of their own


What should we do about the problem? We certainly

shouldn't follow the advice of George Soros, a well

known figure in the international currency markets,

who has called for the creation of a new International

Credit Insurance Corporation to be underwritten by

taxpayers of the member countries. The new

institution, which would operate in tandem with the

IMF, would guarantee international loans up to a

point deemed safe by the bureaucrats running the

organization. The private sector is ill-suited to

allocate international credit, Mr. Soros writes in the

Financial Times. It provides either too little or too

much. It does not have the information with which to

form a balanced judgment.

Appalling Comment

When will we ever learn? This appalling comment is

exactly the opposite of the truth. The protected

markets, not the open ones, are in trouble. Only the

market, with its millions of interested participants, is

capable of generating the information needed to

make sound financial decisions and to allocate credit

( or any other resource ) efficiently and rationally.

Governments and politically directed institutions like

the IMF have shown time and again that they are

incapable of making these kinds of decisions without

creating the kinds of crises we are now facing in Asia.

The IMF is ineffective, unnecessary and obsolete. We

do not need another IMF, as Mr. Soros recommends.

Once the Asian crisis is over, we should abolish the

one we have.

Mr. Shultz, a distinguished fellow at Stanford

University's Hoover Institution, was secretary of

state under President Reagan. Mr. Simon, president

of the John M. Olin Foundation, was secretary of the

Treasury under Presidents Nixon and Ford. Mr.

Wriston is a former chairman of Citicorp/Citibank.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 08:38
NightWriter (Tortfeasor joke rating) ID#320441:

What a touch.

We might need it more than ever to take the sting out of what appears to be coming in the gold market in the next week or two.

I just left Albuquerque... what a friendly town.

Friday night, we went up on the tram to the top of the Sandia Mountains and the High Finance restaurant up there.

Did not see any gold. Just a lot of shimmering lights in the valley.

Down to Las Cruces to visit the in-laws.

And back to good ole' Maryland.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 08:21
Avalon (Typing error in my 8.05; Commerzbank loss is $492 million.(NOT $4932 ). Sorry.) ID#254269:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 08:14
Avalon (Can someone electronically post the IMF article from WSJ. Thanks for any help.) ID#254269:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 08:10
Avalon (Who Needs the IMF ? tolerant 1, this one's for you; WSJ article on Page A22.) ID#254269:
( that's the editorial page ) . Article written by George Shultz, previously Reagan's Sec of State, along with William Simon and Walter Wriston, former Chairman of Citibank.

REAL IMPORTANT ARTICLE; CAN SOMEONE PLEASE POST ELECTRONICALLY. They come out against more money for IMF. And there's Camdessus's smiling portrait.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 08:05
Avalon (Good morning all; couln't sleep, so in the office early today. WSJ print edition articles;) ID#254269:

1. Jakarta's debt plan opens to mixed reviews. Page A14
2. Indonesia awaits Suharto's choice for number 2 post. Page A14
3. Commerzbank of Frankfurt Germany expects losses of $4932 million because of Asia. Page A14.
4. Mining boom returns to Bolivia ( article mentions Soros' Apex Silver Company. Page A18. Apex planning $350 million silver, lead zinc mine.
5. Bureaucrats drag their feet on euro switch. Page A18.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 07:51
John Disney__A (Looking dismal right now) ID#24135:
for rube and oldgold.
Gold looking sick as falling in terms of silver and fast
in currencies. Do not want to see gold/silver ratio of 46.25

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 07:42
Carl (Morning gold news from Europe and S Korea) ID#333131:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 07:32
Tortfeasor (Joke of the Day) ID#36965:
Clinton will be here in Albuquerque today. We are bringing in doors all the wives and young women until he taxies out. The thought of being within five miles of the man give me a case of terminal hives. At least we have this robust economy which Clinton claims to have brought us. Anyone who believes that he had anything at all to do with any kind of prosperity should think twice. He is the most unbelievably lucky president in the history of the USA of which I am aware. That off my chest I post classic cynicism from Norm from Cheers.

Some of the best Norm Peterson quotes from Cheers:

What's shaking, Norm?
All four cheeks & a couple of chins.

What's new, Normie?
Terrorists, Sam. They've taken over my stomach & they're
demanding beer.

What'd you like, Normie?
A reason to live. Give me another beer.

What'll you have, Normie?
Well, I'm in a gambling mood Sammy. I'll take a glass of
whatever comes out of the tap.
Looks like beer, Norm.
Call me Mister Lucky.

Hey Norm, how's the world been treating you?
Like a baby treats a diaper.

What's the story, Mr. Peterson?
The Bobsey Twins go to the brewery. Let's cut to the
happy ending.

Hey Mr. Peterson, there's a cold one waiting for you.
I know, if she calls, I'm not here.

What's going on, Mr. Peterson?
A flashing sign in my gut that says, 'Insert beer here.'

Whatcha up to, Norm?
My ideal weight if I were eleven feet tall.

How's it going, Mr. Peterson?
I'm sorry to hear that.
No, I mean pour.

How's life treating you, Norm?
Like it caught me sleeping with its wife.

Women. Can't live with 'em.... pass the beer nuts.

What's going down, Normie?
My butt cheeks on that bar stool.

Pour you a beer, Mr. Peterson?
Alright, but stop me at one....make that one-thirty.

How's it going, Mr. Peterson?
It's a dog eat dog world, Woody & I'm wearing Milk Bone

What's the story, Norm?
Boy meets beer. Boy drinks beer. Boy meets another beer.

Can I pour you a beer, Mr. Peterson?
A little early, isn't it, Woody?
For a beer?
No, for stupid questions.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 07:20
rube (correction) ID#333127:
IMHO gold is looking at a tighter and tighter base and will break out to the upside soon, I don't see a drop to less than 298

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 06:54
jcw (Trinovant - thanks) ID#198170:
When appropriate, I'll post excerpts.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 06:53
OLD GOLD (correction) ID#238295:
April gold 0ff $2.30 and JSE gold index down 3% this morning. A full fledged correction is underway.

My guess is that bullion will drop to the $290 area before it is finished.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 06:47
John Disney__A (ERPM Amazes) ID#24135:
To all
Remember ERPM - It has always been a candidate for
closure - well guess what - it almost turned a profit
last quarter with a gold price of about $307 - An
operating profit or about $100,000 before Capex of
about $400,000.
I dont suggest buying any however. I know I wont be.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 06:46
Speed (WSJ - South African Gold News) ID#286199:
JOHANNESBURG, South Africa -- Share prices shares climbed Monday, with
industrial shares surging in line with the Hong Kong stock exchange.

The All Share Index vaulted 94.4, or 1.4%, to close at 6644.7, the Industrial Index swelled 112 to 7781.6, while the All Gold edged up 6.1 to 887.20. Volume amounted to 701 million rand worth of shares.

The 1326.24, or 14%, surge on Hong Kong's Hang Seng index Monday
bolstered industrial shares, sweeping aside notions of profit-taking following hefty gains last week. In the week ending Jan. 30, the broad measure All Share Index rose 7.9%.

Leading the advance was mining and investment house Anglo American, and
pulp and paper producer Sappi. Anglo's shares rose 4.2 rand to 223.2, while Sappi soared 3.25 rand, or 16%, to 23.8.

Among other industrial shares, JCI rallied 65 South African cents to 25.25 rand as investors mulled over the break value of the company ahead of its plan to purge all assets except gold and gold-related interests.

One of the disappointments of the session was the listing of Gold Fields, the merged entity of several major South African gold mines which has become the largest gold producer in the world.
Gold Fields closed the day at 33 rand, sharply lower than pre-listing
expectations of a trading price around 50 rand.

As a consequence of the listing of Gold Fields, shares of Kloof Gold Mining and Beatrix Mines have been delisted, with further delistings to come.

Elsewhere on the gold board, Driefontein Consolidated rose 1.25 rand to 33.50, while Harmony Gold Mining edged up 70 cents to 16.7 rand.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 06:41
RLM (Correction) ID#403335:
Make that Elliott E wave down :- (

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 06:41
Trinovant (@jcw 6:34) ID#358318:
No:- get The page you requested is available only to subscribers.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 06:40
RLM (Oldman's Prediction) ID#403335:
I'm certainly not as technically astute as the Oldman has proven to be, but I'm not sure that we can yet discard a Dow triangle. If it takes out 8200ish, then the Oldman is probably correct. However, it the move stalls here, and reverses, then we could be starting the Elliott D wave down.

Gold looks like it might stall here, and test or take out the low.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 06:34
jcw (WSJ Link) ID#198170:
Question - if those of you who do not have a WSJ interactive subscription click on a link to one of their pages do you get to the page?


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 06:19
TYoung (ravenfire) ID#317193:
Sooner than you think!!!The mutual funds will implode. It will not be pretty and no one will like the result. Say a prayer it is only a 30% correction. Tom

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 06:10
Fred(@Vienna)__A () ID#185448:

Not too much euphoria today on the european markets.

An Golden Cheeshead:
Wie geht´s? Nice to find some bekannte Töne on this Quasselseite.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 06:08
ravenfire (super-volatile stocks in Malaysia) ID#365190:
It's crazy I tell you. Blue-chips and market stalwarts were going up 20-30%. The national telephone company, Telekom, went up 2.8 to 13.1 ... the national power company, Tenaga, went up 2.8 to 9.75 ... the biggest bank in Malaysia, Maybank, went up 3 to 12.2 !!!

Where's the sanity left in the world when stocks crash UPWARDS? I wonder what AG would say of this kind of volatility? exceptionally irrational exuberance

Meanwhile, the rupiah stays at more than 10,000 to the US$. Their finance minister can talk all he wants about changing the private sector imminent debt moratorium to a review on a case-by-case basis -- the bottom line being that 90% of the companies can't pay their overseas debts at these high exchange rates anyway.

HMMMMmmmm......... when will the masses catch on that the paper game is heating up at an accelerating rate? comments, anyone?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 05:35
jcw (Balanced Budget Baloney - Highest tax collections since WWII) ID#198170:
Another reason to own gold – since we aren’t making any money with it, Clinton and pals won’t get it. Man, we really are developing an incredibly oppressive tax system. It really does hurt. The following is from a WSJ Editorial ( just an excerpt ) .

Mr. Clinton has arrived like the cavalry to use the balanced budget as political cover for raising taxes beyond the means of even liberals during the Great Society 1960s. The Gingrich Republicans have played along, so give them credit too.
We emphasize this landmark because the pols seem reluctant to give it the publicity it deserves. Mr. Clinton's budget overview doesn't even mention it. But right there on page 10 of the behemoth document he released yesterday, we're told the feds will swallow $1,742,700,000,000 in tax revenue in 1999, or 20.1% of everything America earns.
That's the biggest Beltway jackpot since 1945, which ( attention: Gen-Xers ) was a war year. But even for that war government sucked in just 20.4% of national income, down from a record 20.9% in 1944. Never before or since has federal taxation broken the 20% barrier, not even during the height of the Cold War, according to Mr. Clinton's own budget analysts.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 04:57
CJS (@mozel BIS GOLD) ID#328159:
From the Bank for International Settlement Press Release site:

The Meeting received the Annual Report of the Bank, which had been
distributed in the four official languages ( English, French, German and
Italian ) . It approved the audited Balance Sheet at 31st March 1997,
totalling 66,792,964,322 gold francs, one gold franc being equivalent to
0.290 322 58 ... grammes of fine gold ( or US$ 1.941 49 ..., converted at
US$ 208 per ounce of fine gold ) . The Meeting also approved the Profit
and Loss Account for the financial year to that date, which showed a net
operating surplus of 203,289,449 gold francs after deduction of costs of

Please note the above reference to conversion of gold francs being
converted at US$ 208 per ounce.
You say The gold in the BIS is converted to $ at a rate of $77
approx. per oz. for accounting purposes. What reference do you
base this statement on? And if so, what is the significance of
the press release quoted above from the BIS itself?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 04:18
AUS_con (Goldern Cheesehead 01:16 Lihir Gold Limited) ID#251129:

Lihir produced 150,170 ounces at a total cash cost of US$ 200/oz ( A$303/oz ) for the quarter. The result exceeded forcastes due to higher than expected grades in the sulphidic ore.

Cash operating cost of US$220/oz ( A$330/oz ) are forecast for 1998. Debt now stands at US$295 mill

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 04:07
mozel (Future Price of Gold) ID#153102:
The words gold and silver are in the US Constitution. For Americans, at least, these metals could hardly have more political significance. The greenback is the enemy of the people and gold and silver are the enemy of greenback government.

The US government has the greatest stake in the fiat currency system and it is the world leader of government bashing of gold. The possibility that it can prevail on all governments to disconnect gold from their banking and national currencies entirely is the overhang on the price of gold.

The gold in the BIS is converted to $ at a rate of $77 approx. per oz. for accounting purposes. The US accounts its gold at $44 per oz. The accounting system rate of return on metal loans was obviously astronomical. Far, far more than the announced 1 or 2% nominal interest.

I see nothing to keep gold's price at any given level. Be prepared for anything until a large bank failure spells the end of the dollar trading system. It would rationally seem that CB's would desire to maximize their gain from the sale of gold in their vaults. But, I think we have to admit that dollar trading political considerations have overidden the national rational self-interest of selling CB's. How else can you explain the Australian and Canadian sales of gold, sales which devalued an important national industry. JMHO.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 03:56
JIN ( stoks scences.......unbelieveable!GIAT CASINO?) ID#206358:
For you:HONG KONG, Feb 3 ( Reuters ) - Malaysian stocks stole the limelight on
Tuesday, surging more than 20 percent, as a rally on
other regional markets cooled down.

Regional stock markets managed to cling on to most of Monday's gains but
the underlying trend was weak and volatile as fund
managers reacted, some said over-reacted, in panic mode to Asia's fast,
sentiment-driven swings.

``Fund managers were in a panic to get their weightings up,'' said one head

``They're all holding cash, so any movement to the upside is going to be
exaggerated. They panic. They've got to get their
weightings up and they crash into the market. Once it's gone up 25 percent
and there's a nasty announcement of layoffs
somewhere, they'll all crash back out again.''

Hong Kong, the only market with any muscle, according to one fund manager,
whip-sawed through the morning to close 11
points higher at 10,589.

Singapore and Jakarta were virtually flat, with the Straits Times index at 1,436
and Indonesian stocks at 555. Manila was down
2.79 percent at 2,085. Bangkok was off 1.32 percent at 547.

The story of the day was in Kuala Lumpur, which played catch up with the
rest of the region and shot up 25 percent at the open
of its first trading day following the Chinese New Year and Eid al-Fitr

``To watch Malaysia open up 25 percent is a joke,'' the trader said. ``What
has changed between Thursday and Monday
morning? Nothing. Somebody has got it seriously wrong. Analysts as a whole
have got their Asian valuations completely

But such is the nature of a developing region undergoing an economic
upheaval, suffering from political uncertainty and
staggering after months of repeated market shocks.

``It's not the end of the world, but it's not the beginning of the new one either,''
said Marshall Mays, chief strategist at Nikko
Research Centre.

Volatility will continue for the coming months as the painful realities of Asia's
economic adjustment -- unemployment, inflation,
and inevitably, social unrest -- start to make and hit sentiment negatively once
again, he said.

Tokyo had a strong morning, rising 1.44 percent to 17,018 on the back of
Wall Street's 200-point rally overnight.

The yen was firm but range-bound at 126 to the U.S. dollar, while most other
Asian currencies demonstrated a stronger tone
after lagging Monday's rally in Asian stocks.

`` ( Currencies ) all overshot in December and early January and there is now
going to be some retracement,'' Mays said.

``Of course, currencies weren't available to play before, and this is a new
phenomenon. They provide an alternative to the stock
market, and include more long-term foreign direct investment flows, trade
flows and corporate activity.''

The Thai baht led the regionals onto firmer ground, reaching 48.55 from 50.70
at Monday's close on follow-through buying
from Friday's removal of the two-tier exchange trading system.

Malaysia's ringgit rallied sharply beyond the 4 to the U.S. dollar level, but
pared early gains to trade at 4.06 in early afternoon.
The Singapore dollar was also firm at 1.704.

The Philippine peso dipped to 40.15 after showing early strength while the
South Korean won remained sluggish at 1,565
despite a ratings upgrade from Fitch IBCA. The Japanese yen helped lift the
Taiwan dollar through the T$33 level.

Fears of potential social unrest due to increasing prices and uncertainty ahead
of the March presidential election continued to
make players wary of Indonesia's rupiah but dealers said the central bank was
protecting the currency at the 10,400 rupiah level
and so far keeping it relatively stable.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 03:54
John Disney__A (The following comments pertain to GOLD not Surfing) ID#24135:
For Salty
comments on the WAVES.
1. I think going back to 1980/81 is too far. To me, thats
like nostradamus stuff which is hard to use for day to day
trading purposes.
2. Im not that much of a waver - but my son is ...
he has convinced me that we are in a wave 4 up of a
5 wave down impulse ... Target 320/340 .. With a wave
down to look forward that will take you to 250/275.
3. this could change IF there is some sign of a new
UP impulse forming - But he doesnt see that yet.
4. so im trading a wave 4 up. Thats my assumption
and I have to stick with it - I would personally take
profits in mines or whatever gold/pm instruments one
trades starting at 320 -
5. been reading site this morning. Some guys seem to
want to criticise anybody who doesnt talk about gold
exclusively. After saying this - these same guys then
proceed to talk about everything else but gold. I
think this highlights how tough it is and how boring
it will become if we just talk about gold and pm. At
least with mines there is some variety, but some seem
to feel that even mines should be excluded, and we
should only talk about the metals themselves - OK IM
easy - lets everybody ONLY TALK ABOUT PM and nothing
else. This should be quite entertaining.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 03:54


Re: my 22:56 post:


Date: Mon Feb 02 1998 23:18
Oldman ( Spoos, etc ) ID#162148:
................ ziva: I dont think there is any factual basis
for your assertion that Jews control the Bilderbergers.: )


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 03:32
Myrmidon (@ Farfel) ID#339212:

All reasons you mentioned pass the common sense test and I am a firm believer ( like you ) that the price will not drop below $280 if it ever gets there.

However, one aspect of our analysis should include the possibility that some interests may want to get hold of gold production. A way of doing so is by purchasing bankrupt mines with pennies to the dollar, first by dropping the price of Au to unsustainable production levels, and second by keeping it there until such bankrupsies materialize.

These interests could be CBs themselves operating through some of the regional major banks. Certainly it is a possibility.

One must remember that the gold movers are not the Kitco folklore, but informed big smart money and CBs. I have read reports here about India's increased consumption, or some other Arab emirate's increased imports. Then why the price is not moving? Because Mr. public is not the mover, and is not the mover because is not buying significant amounts, which in turn leads us to perception.

And perception will not change until the price has doubled. Mr. public is preoccupied with the stock market at this point because it is at an all time high.

Most of the buying is done in market tops. In market bottoms this is not true.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 02:54
I honestly believe that, at this point, there is considerably greater upside risk than downside risk to holding gold.

My rationale is based primarily on my fervent belief that the manipulation of gold downward by various notable CB's only made sense to a certain point ( approx. $280 an ounce ) .

In doing so, they effectively accomplished their mission:

1 ) Create an extremely negative bearish psychology to the metal, thus engendering enormous short sales.

2 ) Make huge sums of money by indirectly shorting the metal ( through third party proxies ) .

3 ) Diminish ( and in some cases totally eliminate ) the ability of gold producers to supply metal to the short sellers once the squeeze begins.

4 ) Reaccumulate the metal at lower prices in advance of major CB announcements concerning formation of the EMU ( and now rumor has it, the
AMU ( Asian Monetary Union ) . Once such announcements are made, sell into the ensuing panic buy ( at $500 and up ) in various stages.

5 ) Consolidate control of the metal in the hands of fewer CB's, thereby in effect creating truly oligopolistic control of the metal.

I honestly believe that, if the CB's take actions ( either through further sales or gold loans ) to drop the metal ( on a sustained basis ) below $280, then they are effectively screwing themselves. If they do so, they are effectively removing the precious from the metal. I believe they would trigger a complete collapse in the POG, i.e., a swift drop from 275 to maybe 150 or lower as all positive psychology simply evaporates. Why wipe out the value of your principal simply to make a few percentage points on loans? Why sell the metal for $200 an ounce less than CB's such as Belgium and the Netherlands obtained for selling their reserves?
For example, wouldn't Switzerland feel indescribably stupid if they can't at the very least equal the price that Belgium received for its sale of gold?

Ultimately, the moment I knew categorically that the CB's were manipulating the POG came with the Swiss announcement that they would likely sell half their reserves at a future date.

No rational financial entity advertises such a fact in advance knowing damn well that such an announcement will radically diminish the value of their primary asset when it comes time to sell it.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 02:46
John Disney__A (ABX fascinates me - dont know why ) ID#24135:
To anyone interested in Barrick ( all nos mill unless
noted otherwise )
Results for 1995
revenue = 1281
Net income 292
Balance was costs and offsets = 989 on production
of 3.15 mil oz
This is a cost of 314$/oz for 1995
Results for 1996
Revenue = 1299
net income = 218
Balance 1081 on production of 3.14 mil oz
This is a cost of 344 $/oz
Results for 9 mon 1997
revenue = 969
net income minus 198 !!!!!
balance = 1167 on 2.2 mil oz
This a cost of 530 $/oz
Contains extraordinary items but REALLY!!!!.

Typical cost pattern - per cent of total cost ( rough )
operating and admin = 67%
depreciation less other income = 16%
exploration cost = 5 %
Interest cost = 2%
Taxation 10%

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 02:43
TZADEAK* (@ James... You make our point in your very post....) ID#372344:
They cannot allow Japan to go under period end of story.
they will do everything and anything, change the rules, change
requirements, invent even more creative accounting practices...
You see the people want to believe... they do not want ANY CHANGES! they are prepared to believe anything and everything,
Just look at the pathetic BJ lies south of the border....
But of course everything must come to an end even belief in lies....
We are not far from there....Don't forget the prospect of WAR military
and economic....

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 02:40
Myrmidon (@ aurator) ID#339212:

Read Burt's theory, interesting but not convincing. Waves tend to apply to longer term trends. Many wavists have been wrong in predicting short term movements. Waves do not take into account unforseen events.

When the price will go up? Quote to Burt what Haggis once said:
When the CBs want it up.

Good night all.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 02:34
Jack (PPT and government social planners) ID#252127:

I'm sure that the PPT will be handsomely rewarded for the job well done over the past week, while the government social planners who monitor this site have come to conclusions about the comraderie of goldbugs.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 02:33
James (Japanese Banks Teetering (01:09)) ID#252150:
Tzadeak & Haggis--Are you still as sanguine about the Japanese banks after reading that post? I've been saying for at least a month that the whole Japanese economy was an irretreivable basket case. Way before Donald asked if he & Carl were the only ones worried about Japan.

It is going to take all the financial legerdemain that AG,RB & all their cronies can muster to avert a financial disaster. The global economy may be able to withstand the shock waves from seasia but if Japan goes-- it's all over. The most fanatical GB's fondest fantasy may come true.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 02:31
Myrmidon (@ Farfel) ID#339212:

A month ago when gold touched $280, most people in this site were expecting the bounce reversal and a violent bull market. What an amazing change in human psycology has occured since then. Now the majority using alchemy see a trend down again. Short term traders admit on placing stop losses at $300.

Comments: With this perception of trading the metal isn't it appropriate to say that those will panic again like virgins on a wedding night and drive the metal to new lows? Or better, they will panic like odd loters do?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 02:31
TZADEAK* (@ Myrmidon...yah, but they only tell you about their winners not their loosers...) ID#372344:
And that is what should give them away pronto..My view is and has been ,an old timer gave me this one speaking about Gold shares and
diversificationa rising tide lifts all boats some stocks of course will be lifted further than others, so you just sell enough to take your money out
and buy the good ones that have not yet risen, and so on....
But you got it! DIVERSIFICATION is the key .As much as possible...
Once the Gold bull starts, well you know the rest...
Never put all your eggs in one basket is another great one..

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 02:19
aurator (Gold, Predictions, comments welcome - U know, what kitco is all about) ID#250121:
Desparately Seeking more comments on this E- Wave analysis on Gold ( the magic word ) in a selection of currencies


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 02:17
Myrmidon (TZADEAK, ... furthermore) ID#339212: have the smart ones broadcasting that they have made a killing in a stock here and there by rubbing it in to the long term PM investors making them to look as incompetent idiots who bought not at the bottom.

I will not enter to the subject of regional promotions of gold stocks. I hold only N. American, I will never touch S. African, and I will take Haggis opinions on Australian which I consider for diversification.

My answer to them is that there are N. American gold stocks which are up by 30% from their lows. So what?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 02:10
snowbird (Keep an eye on Adrian Resources (ADL Toronto)) ID#220325:
Feasability study funded by Teck Corporation is going to be released this month on Adrian's gold and copper Petaquilla project in Panama. It looks like it is starting to move today. Current price !.35 Canadian. It had been $7.00 Canadian prior to the last study.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 02:09
6pak (Farfel @ 01:32) ID#335190:
Must get a higher education eh! Thanks for the reminder. I will add that important information, to my long list of wrong doings.

Soooo higher education, will give me the necessary insight and understanding, to appreciate the demands of the Jews. Didn't know that.

I need a course on investing in Gold and Silver, and getting my timing to be on target, that is the only higher education that I require.

Thanks. Take Care.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 02:07
TZADEAK* (@ 6pack..I don't know what I said that gave you the idea that I dislike Indians.....) ID#372344:
Au contraire, mon ami.... In my prospecting days I met and made a
number of Indian friends... We all knoe they got a raw deal, but look
at the other natives throughout the world, Central &South America etc...
We especially I cannot magically go back in time and undo the many
wrongs, my God I wasn't even know what I mean...
I believe every peoples should work to better themselves today.
Do you think I had a choice as to who my parents where?
Noe I'll explain how this is relevant to Gold... perhaps Indians in
here in Canada could prospect for Gold in the lands they have been
given, not much I agree but it's a start. I hear they were given some mighty fine ground, I may be mistaken...
Anyway I wanted to inform you that some years ago while prospecting
in N.Ontario I found a most special Indian Golden earing, quite unique
actually, apperantly quite old, but pure Gold no alloys, with some
black and blue beeds, and a couple of beatten out golden feathers.
I wonder if you know for a fact whether N Ontario Indians traded with S American Indians, as I would like to know the origin of this Golden earing.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 02:07
Undoubtedly, many of the PM investors on this forum are frustrated beyond description with respect to their essentially non-performing assets.
No doubt it brings out the dark side of many such investors.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 02:03
Myrmidon (@ TZADEAK) ID#339212:

Yes, the quality of posts has gone South in the last week, and I expressed my dissapointment, as others did, in particular with bad language and insults.

One thing can change this site is the start of a major bull market in PMs.

This bear has tested the nerves of the most patient investors and peoples' frustration and anger of their non performing assets are manifested some times in this site. We will see good days ahead if we can survive the storm which is not over yet.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 01:53
TZADEAK* (@ plotics=politics....of course....) ID#372344:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 01:50
TZADEAK* (@ Myrmidon....I believe it's not that complicated....) ID#372344:
As you say things such as Wars,Markets, Plotics,Currencies,etc...
I believe are relevant to the price of Gold as long as the poster gives his/her view of said relevancy. After all anything that will/could effect
the price of the PM's is fair game. As far as PM's stock recomendations,
I believe they are allowed perhaps Mr. Kitner can advise us further on this matter however my personal advice ,as I stated earlier use due dilligence, and trust but verify. Believe me when I say I really enjoy a good laugh, but occasionally, just take a look at the last few days posts, and
you will note that the large majority of them are not relevant to Gold at all, at least the poster did not make that connection. Maybe there is something I missed. I'm sure however not many lurkers are going to go thru all the posts to pick out the ones that relate to Gold. All of course

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 01:36
Myrmidon (@ TZADEAK) ID#339212:

Since our investments are primarily in gold or gold stocks, all discussion should be centered in gold and PM's. The problem arises when respected PM's analysts view gold - right or wrong - as a political weapon because of huge CB holdings.

It is easy therefore to migrate onto politics, wars, crashes, famines, self defense, guns, cycles, external influences, people's education and perception.

In the strict sense of the Kitco netiquette, we should not even be discussing gold stocks in this site, because there is another Kitco site for this purpose. You and I are thus the first violators of the netiquette rules.

I have not the answer on how to restrict the discussion only to PM's - after all there is so much one can talk about PM's. The influencing factors are devaluations, which again should not be discussed here if we are going to follow the rules.

That is why the discussions drift from time to time but I am glad to see them on track when this occurs.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 01:34
6pak (Tzadeak @ 01:06) ID#335190:
Yes, Sooo Sorry. discuss your personal prejudices there. LIKE the only good Indian, is a dead indian.

Bart: you are right. I must direct the subject towards Gold. Right?

The First Nations People want their GOLD & Silver back. How was that Bart?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 01:32
However, first, you should develop some basic skills in the areas of literacy, comprehensibility, and intelligibility before you propound your various anti-Jewish theses.

In other words, get yourself an education first, then come back and enlighten us all.

P.S. There is certainly nothing wrong with the Canadian Army having a completely military, non-religious museum erected in honor of its commendable efforts. At the same time, there is nothing wrong with any ethnic group ( Jews, Ukranians, Germans, Gypsies, etc. ) advocating special representation in the museum. Every ethnic group is entitled to champion its own special interests provided such actions do not denigrate other ethnic groups, don't you think?

Unfortunately, you seem to have a specific fight with the Jews ( not to mention blacks, Indians, and a whole host of other minority races, I would imagine? ) .

What's wrong...did someone serve you a bad bowl of chicken soup in a deli somewhere?


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 01:16

What's UP DOWN under?

What's goin' on down there with my precious LIHIR and Vengold? Why all this irrational exhuberance in the land of devaluation, corruption and vice ( not OZ!! ) ? Help me make sense of this Malaysian elation?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 01:09
February 3, 1998

Analysis: Japan's Wobbly Banks Prepare for the


TOKYO -- From the stratospheric heights of their board rooms in glass-and-steel headquarters far above the narrow streets of Tokyo, Japan's top bankers once gazed with pride on the vast commercial empires they helped build.

Now when they look out, they see mountains of bad debt.

Japanese banks are the biggest on earth, but they are swaying frighteningly in the Asian financial typhoon. The possibility that a giant Japanese bank might one day come crashing down, sending shock waves around the globe, is a recurring nightmare, not just for Japanese bankers but for treasury officials and bank executives around the world.

Is that going to happen?

Probably not, most bankers and analysts say. But they do not say so with as much confidence as they would like.

When the United States and the International Monetary Fund rushed to bail out South Korea last month, their ultimate concern was less South Korea than its potential impact on Japanese and Western banks. Some of the Japanese banks are already wobbly because of a crushing burden of bad debts; indeed, the sum of bad debts held by Japan's banks is greater than the value of the entire economy of China, not to mention South Korea.

It's very unstable, Alicia Ogawa, a managing director and banking analyst at Salomon Brothers Asia Ltd. in Tokyo, said of the financial system in Japan. Everyone knows there's a huge shoe that's got to drop. Nobody knows when, who's going to pay and who it's going to land on. So, of course, everyone's sort of frozen and trembling in the corner.

For all the worries about Indonesia or South Korea, Japan's economy is twice as large as that of the rest of Asia put together, and so many analysts say the key question that will determine the future of the Asian crisis is simply this: What will happen in Tokyo?

Sure enough, the new finance minister, Hikaru Matsunaga, promised this past weekend that he would do his utmost to prevent any of the nation's top 19 banks from collapsing. Indeed, the money is there, for Japan is the largest creditor nation in the world, with assets that make the IMF look like a pauper, and so it is not risking the kind of liquidity crisis that felled South Korea. With $800 billion in bonds, direct investment and other securities abroad, the Japanese government is sitting on a comfortable cushion. Japan still has a heck of a lot of money, said Kathy Matsui, strategist at Goldman, Sachs ( Japan ) Ltd. It's a cushion that most Asian economies don't have and it's the cause of a lot of Japan's problems. They know that they have a cushion and can engineer a soft landing.

Still, there are jitters lurking in the market. Though it is unlikely to happen, the nightmare that still haunts bankers and executives around the world is the failure of a large Japanese bank that provokes a run on deposits. That run could even spread to otherwise healthy banks that might in turn prompt a sudden liquidity squeeze and paralyze these giants and eventually the global financial system. Markets could be battered from New York to London.

There could be a systemic collapse, a meltdown, said James Fiorello, a banking analyst at ING Barings in Tokyo. We're talking about a run that closes down proper banks.

The basic problem facing the Japanese banking system is bad debt, a mountain of it, and a subsidiary problem is that no one has a precise idea of how big the mountain is.

The banks report that they have $560 billion in bad or questionable loans, and they hold acres of boarded-up lots and half-empty buildings that they cannot sell but took possession of when loans went sour. When the stock and property prices fall, as they have been lately, the result is a further heap of bad loans piled on to the mountain.

Partly because of these bad debts, a few of Japan's major city banks are barely investment grade, and other banks are also being reviewed for possible downgrades by Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service.

The bad debts have led to a series of incidents that could be called bank runs, except that the depositors lining up are so orderly that they do not seem very alarming. The authorities are closing down credit associations and small lending institutions around the country, and the vaults at the Bank of Japan, the nation's central bank, are swinging open as they never have before to provide cash for banks that anticipate withdrawals from depositors.

For months now, the Japanese have been switching a tiny portion of their 1,000 trillion yen, or $7.7 trillion, in savings from wobbly banks to the nation's top institutions and the government-run postal savings system. In December alone, Japanese flooded the postal savings institution with about 3.3 trillion yen, or $25 billion, about as much as the deposits at a major regional bank.

More important, the mountain of bad debts creates fears within the banking community that one of their number will fail, while holding money belonging to other institutions. So there is a fear that commercial banks would suddenly perceive one bank to be at risk and pull back their funds from it in the interbank market, the circulatory system for the financial world. The cutoff of funds could create a panic that would put healthy institutions at risk.

Japanese banks are trendseekers, so if someone thinks one bank is dangerous, all the other banks pull the credit lines, said Naoko Nemoto, a financial analyst at Standard & Poor's.

Some worry that in a panic, money might be drained from even the big international Japanese banks, and those banks would then scramble for cover by pulling their lines from other institutions. The result could be a squeeze that would put strains on the banking system here and abroad even before Wall Street awakened.

The Bank of Japan has already begun to pour billions of dollars worth of yen into the markets, just to prevent a squeeze. Nonetheless, many banks have suddenly become aware of the fragility of their base of funding.

The government has stated that no more major financial institutions will fail, and it is issuing a 30 trillion yen bank bailout and a 2 trillion yen tax cut. Financial analysts and bankers say that the system will hold but that a couple of the weakest banks may be shut down, merged or absorbed by other institutions, perhaps even in the next few months.

It is not desirable that you just drive them into a rock, said Paul Heaton, a financial analyst at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, about the weakest banks. It is better that you drop off a few lifeboats along the way.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 01:06
TZADEAK* (@ 6pack.... I don't think you get....) ID#372344:
What does a holocaust memorial in a Canadian military museum have
to do with the price of Gold? Why don't you go to an appropriate site
and discuss your personal prejudices there.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 01:03
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Well, there were a couple good 'metals' related posts here tonight. Glad I was able to find them!

Gold is now at a position where it either continues moving up, or it breaks down. I think we should know with Tuesdays action, or a part thereof.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 01:03
mozel (Earl re: Regional Government) ID#153102:
The 1935 Social Security Act is probably not the first piece of federal legislation to be administered by region, but it is the modern foundation for regional government. When FDR and Congress seized the gold and made the new greenbacks legal tender, they deprived the States of all sources of lawfu, constituional revenue ( Art 1 Sec 10 No STate shall... make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debt. ) In return for signing up for the social security act's unemployment compensation greenbacks and other provisions and grants, the federal government via the Buck Act created legal fiction federal states named AZ VA TX MN, etc. and authorized the states to collect taxes paid in greenbacks in those federal areas. So, the lawmakers in the States co-operated in surrendering their sovereignty and in overthrowing the Constitution for greenbacks and still do every session. The lawyers who drew up these Acts were very clever fellows and did it in such a way that it appeared nothing had changed. But, things have moved so far along now that many States no longer have their boundaries defined in their Constitution and exist as fictional federal states entirely. And many law-enforcement people, including memebers of the state judicial branch who appear to be state and local officers are actually federalized.

Another familiar regional government institution, I believe, is the Internal Revenue Service.

The Supreme Court accommodates legislation to the Constitution if there is any way it can do so. And that how is regional government schemes become constitutional. Early on in FDR's New Deal the Supreme Court stated in Ashwander v TVA that if a party is receiving benefits actually or prospectively from a federal agency, the court will not give that part standing to make a challenge on the constitutionality of the act enabling the agency. In other words, the Constitution is not for socialists. A good recent case to read is US v New York.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 01:01
HighRise (GOLD DIVE) ID#401460:


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:56
6pak (REPLY @ Never raise the issue of a JEW EH!) ID#335190:
Silver Plate @ 22:03

Tzadeak @ 22:18

In defence of my fellow Canadians, that died in the great wars of the world. Yes, I will tell a religious group they have no place in a common remembrance of the Canadian volunteer army. Death and destruction of young lives. Canadian parents, that gave their sons, and daughters, for the defence of many religious orders, not just JEWS.

Yes, it has taken many years, for the Canadian Military, and Canadians, to give proper recognition of the great sacrifice, that First Nations people gave in the fight for the freedom of JEWS in Europe. Yet, when First Nations Veterans arrived back in Canada, they were treated worse than JEWS.

What has the religious organization called JEWS done for the First Nations People EH!.

Millions each year is given to Israel. Now we have some jerk politician wanting to sent Canadian troops to the middle east, because the people in Israel and the USofA, are asking for help.

First Nations People have been asking for relief, from the Europeans'. Concentration Camps ? genocide ? Take time, and study the history of the First Nations People, and the Millions Killed by European's.

Immigration after the war, to Canada, by Europeans, gave relief, hope and a new life. What the hell was the conditions of the First Nations People in 1812-1914-1940' 1950's 1960's - 1998. You expect me to be a supporter of the cause of the JEW, with their continual demands that they were the only one's that suffered in the great wars. Hell a lot of fine German Citizens, also died in the great wars. What were their religions ?

Yes, Get lost,

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:52
TZADEAK* (@ Myrmidon..... I see your point...) ID#372344:
Those airheads will probably confuse the Female condition PMS with
PM's....easy mistake to make...

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:52
Heavy Hitter (big bucks) ID#403159:
Stocks are the gold. This site should take note. The real gold has been sent to the dump. Only a fool would own such an asset. So when you discuss gold please indicate which gold you are talking about. The new stuff or the old. The old was sent to the dump long ago. Only those brave enough or foolish enough would dare talk about the old gold.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:49
Prometheus (@signing off) ID#189273:
Here's a closing quote:

I have always thought that if, the the lamentable era of the New Economics, culminating in 1929, even in the very presence of dizzily spiralling prices, we had all continuously repeated, Two and two still make four, much of the evil might have been averted. Similarly, even in the general moment of gloom in which this foreword is written, when many begin to wonder if declines will never halt, the appropriate abracadabra may be: They always did.

from Bernard Baruch's foreword to an edition of EXTRAORDINARY POPULAR DELUSIONS AND THE MADNESS OF CROWDS
New York City,
October, 1932


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:49
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (Guten Morgen, Herr Bill Buckler!) ID#431263:
Herr Bill--

Nice job on your latest Privateer Front Page! Do believe your comments about BC losing the world's confidence and respect are right on target! But Asia apparently ain't lookin at BC but RR and AG!! What do you make of this Asian affirmation of the IMF bailout?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:48

From Canada's National Newspaper, ( c ) 1997 The Globe and Mail

Tuesday, Feb. 3, 1998

South Africa in gold's grip

CAPE TOWN - It speaks volumes about the importance of gold to South Africa that the Clinton sex scandal is seen here not in terms of its geopolitical impact, nor even in what the tawdry details say about the U.S. President, but in the effect on the price of gold.

At the time the revelations were made, the price had slipped below $280 ( U.S. ) an ounce, its lowest level in more than 18 years. Within days, the direction reversed, recrossing the $300-threshold and closing Monday in New York at $303.40.

Others might say the move was caused by tensions with Iraq or the continuing financial crisis in Southeast Asia. But here there was no doubt President Bill Clinton's problems made gold a more attractive investment by threatening to undermine the stability of the U.S. dollar.

There was a joke going around mining circles here that a plan should be hatched to strew Clinton's path with bimbos because it is the only thing that keeps gold over $300 an ounce, said Stephen Friedman, director of the Centre for Policy Studies in Johannesburg.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:48
Poorboys (Never Again) ID#224149:
Sorry----Bart Just seen Your Post

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:44
Bill Buckler (Malaysia - Kablooee!) ID#257234:
I haven't double checked this, but Yahoo has the Malaysian stock market up TWENTY THREE POINT FOUR SIX PERCENT! wow ...

If you wan't to see if this is an aberration on Yahoo, the URL is

BTW, Poor little Oz is actually down by 16 points ( about 0.7% ) . Our local radio market guru was confidently predicting a 50 point rise, at least, this morning.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:41
Lurker 700__A (Heavy Hitter) ID#319327:
Enjoy your Gold call. But, In order to keep inflation/deflation under control, PPT ( or CB's ) keep hammering every rise of POG. Any idea how can it reach your target of $500?
Good night!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:40
Poorboys (TRANSITING URANUS TRINE RADIX VENUS (5th House to 1st House)) ID#224149:
Some Clinton Transits -------Exact Mar 13 1998, Exact Jul 25 1998, Exact Jan 3 1999
This is a great time for relationships of all kinds, but particularly your most intimate relationship. During this transit you enjoy intuition, independence and excitement in your personal relationships. You also enjoy intellectually stimulating relationships with a balance of give and take. You have the ability to allow others plenty of freedom to be themselves, while enjoying their company. If you are already in a relationship, then it will take on these qualities. If not, then a new and exciting relationship may start during this time. This can also be a very creative time. Money may also flow easily.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:37
Heavy Hitter (big bucks) ID#403159:
Gold is useless and undesirable. It does not serve any purpose so I will sell it all on tomarrows open. The world is O.K. and debts are not an issue anymore. We live in a safe place knowing our politicians can solve our problems without batting an eyelash. I will sleep and be confortable knowing the government is there looking after my stock investments. There is no reason to own gold anymore. We can all rest now.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:36
DJ (Channels) ID#215208:
Chaos, flux, insanity. Channels don't mean much in this environment, so I haven't bothered to post these charts lately. However, there may be something to learn from the price movements lately. The next few days are critical.

Gold: In a tight upward channel within the broader long term downward channel. Reaching the point where it must either break the down trend, or head back down, reaffirming the bear is not dead. Many of our wiser heads are predicting it will head back south. Whichever way it moves, it will likely move swiftly.

Silver: Still moving within a broad upward-trending channel. Now in the middle. If it breaks the previous high, it could cruise to roughly 6.85 before it hits the channel border. Perhaps the collective wisdom of the Kitco clan can help determine the most probable direction.

Platinum: As with gold, platinum is in a tight upward channel within the longer-term downward channel. Again, the next few days are critical. Some, including John Disney, are predicting the next move is up. If so, it will break the long-term downward trend and could make a major move.

Palladium: I've given up trying to define a channel for PA. It does seem to be roughly following a trend line which I've shown.

The chart of currencies of gold buyers has also gone haywire. It seems that because of the traumatic weakening of the Asian currencies, the connection to the price of gold has been lost, at least for the time being. If not, either the currencies will make a quick recovery, led by the gold price, or US$ gold will drop to new lows, far below the previous lows. Or a little of both. At the moment, all I can say is this chart does not bode well for gold.

Good hunting all!

( Hope this does not post all jammed together as it appears in the preview. Here goes! )

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:35
HighRise (Gold? Still above 300 Bucks) ID#401460:
302.40 -0.55
303.60 +0.20
304.50 -0.50
302 +/- Kitco

Good Night All

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:34
Myrmidon (@ TZADEAK and Earl) ID#339212:

You better get used to nonsense talk in this site, since some of the respected contributors are keeping out.

UFOs, astrology, conspiracy, religion, sexual harassment, Presidential sex, all have been covered to some extend.

Next to come will be abortion. Some airhead will find this subject is closely related to PMs.!!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:34
Bart Kitner (Kitco) (Everything but Gold) ID#25867:
To Earl: This is a discussion group, not a chat site. You said We are what we are and this site is what it is... Basically a gold site but wide open to the occasional off topic stuff brought to us by genuine space cadets.

Let me correct you.

This is not basically a gold site. This IS a gold site. The only other stuff that it is wide open to are silver, platinum, palladium, and rhodium. ( Did he say rhodium? ) The space cadets were supposed to have been filtered out by dumbfounding them with our complex registration procedures, but it seems we underestimated their computing skills.

To Marshall: Thank you for your excellent example of a posting that has no place here. Not only is it completely unrelated to the metals but it also breaks Kitco netiquette guidelines #1, #3, & #4 as well as some of General Discussion Group guidelines found at .

To Bernatz: You make me laugh. How do you possibly claim that you're a victim of racial discrimination HERE?! Look around! Can you tell who's what? You'll probably wind up getting kicked off the site yet again, but if it makes you happy I'll make sure you'll handle gets changed just before doing so.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:32
Earl () ID#227238:
Heavy Hitter: I'm a goldbug. I can't afford a phone. Can I use your's?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:31
KO (Silver up 41% from its low !!!!) ID#270224:
Doesn't sound like deflation in this asset!!!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:30
Prometheus (@Earl) ID#189273:
It's a joke; it's not a joke.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:28
Earl () ID#227238:
Golden C: I think it would interesting to start a pool, with individual projections of how much the national debt will be increased while operating under this balanced budget, so called. I say an additional $150 billion, minimum.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:27
Sometimes reality is much weirder than fiction, huh

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:25
Please see earlier post 00:08.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:25
Earl () ID#227238:
Farfel: That's another one of your parodies; isn't it?

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:19
Please see earlier post 00:08.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:18
Ted (EB..................ONE game does NOT a season ) ID#364147:

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:17
Well, meine Freunde, it's now official--the 1999 Budget is BALANCED!! NO MORE DEFICIT! NADA! NICHTS! NOTHING! JUST A BIG FAT ZERO!!! Can ya' believe it? BC is a god ( -damn liar! ) What a sham! Budget deficit without SS cover-up will approach 185 BILLION DOLLARS--and that's if interest rates stay where they are ( highly unlikely ) and the economy hums along at 2-3% growth ( even more unlikely ) ! What timing for slick sick Willie! Wait till he starts dropping those bunker busters nukes at Saddam. Will make droppin his drawers look like Mr. Roger's Neighborhood! It's a wonderful day in the neighborhood...blah, blah, blah...!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:16
Heavy Hitter (big bucks) ID#403159:
Buy stocks ! Buy low sell high ! Opportunity knocks. Schools teachers are giving investment advise on stock market investing. Fidelity ads are now quoting retire wealthy investing in stocks in 10 years. Barnes and Noble books selling out of books on stock market investing. This is a new era and you must invest in stocks. In 10 years I will never have to work again. Where is the phone ? BUY BUY BUY BUY. BUY

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:15
Early stage silver bull, yes!
Late stage DOW euphoria, yes!

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:09
KO (farfel - you didn't read what I said.) ID#270224:
Silver bull - I see no euphoria ( early stage )

SP 500 all time high - euphoria

Abby Cohen the supertanker of investment analysts on CNN thinks DOW will go to 8700 this year.


Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:08
Earl () ID#227238:
Golden C: With all due respect consider, for a moment, the probability of the govt being in such a position that it is able to install said device in each individual within - what was it - the next 2 years. Hells bells, they can't even innoculate any but a small fraction of the welfare kids. And that may be for their own good ... but I doubt it. All I am saying is that it is so far out of the realm of possibility, for a variety of reasons, that it serves no purpose to even pass it along as tabloid sensationalism. ........ Bear in mind that I don't trust the bastards any more than you do. I'm really on your team but the conspiracy thing just goes too far some times.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:08

Today: February 02, 1998 at 10:02:39 PST

NY-NY facade upsets NYSE

Stock exchanges sues over parody

By Bill Gang

Although it is one of the hottest properties in Las Vegas, the New York-New York hotel-casino is experiencing trouble with the New York Stock Exchange.

It's not that the resort's stock value has plummeted or been yanked off the Big Board because of scandalous improprieties. As a joint venture resort, New York-New York doesn't even have any stock.

The problem is that the New York Stock Exchange is miffed that the resort used a stylized version of its facade in the casino's financial district and made fun of the NYSE name by creating the New York $lot Exchange.

NYSE attorneys blustered in U.S. District Court documents filed in New York that connecting the 200-year-old Wall Street enterprise with demon gambling will drag down its reputation and likely confuse people.

Both are risk taking, New York-New York attorney Mark Tratos shrugged during a recent interview.

The NYSE complaint states, The Exchange has emerged in this century as the pre-eminent stock market in the world, with a reputation unmatched for permanence, integrity and the quality of its regulation ... ( while the casino ) touts the lure of gambling, the possibility of winning great riches and the vagaries of chance and luck.

Tratos responded: We say you have to be lucky both places. They just don't want to recognize their major tumbles.

He said the NYSE also misses the point of the year-old resort -- to provide an entertaining caricature of the Big Apple by poking fun at traditional New York icons. He pointed to the Marilyn Monroe-esque Statue of Liberty and the yellow cab cars on the roller coaster.

New York-New York is full of parody and parody is protected speech, Tratos said. Everyone likes parody until it happens to them.

He conceded the resort didn't seek NYSE permission before reproducing its facade but said there was no need to.

Tratos explained the law also is very clear that public buildings are part of the public domain and can be copied without permission. He noted that architectural copyrights for three-dimensional facades didn't even exist until 1990.

In the lawsuit, NYSE lawyers took the legalistically narrow position that the resort usurped the Stock Exchange trademark in the casino's construction. That trademark is a line drawing of a neo-classical columned building front of the Stock Exchange.

In an April letter to NYSE attorneys, Tratos argued that the drawing depicting a facade with six rounded columns flanked by two rectangular columns could apply to any neo-classical building throughout the world.

While other New York landmarks asked that they not be included in the consolidated pop art replica of the essence of New York, the NYSE waited until a month after the resort was opened in January 1997 to complain.

The exchange board of directors want the facade demolished and references to the NYSE purged.

Tratos said the resort made a concession by renaming the resort's slot club the New York-New York $lot Exchange.

But that wasn't enough and the NYSE filed a federal lawsuit in the New York courthouse that is only four blocks from the stock exchange.

A telephone call by the SUN to NYSE lawyers about why the case degenerated to the point where a lawsuit was necessary was referred to Stock Exchange spokesperson Lynn Newman.

She politely declined to answer questions, citing the Stock Exchange's policy against commenting on pending litigation.

In addition to the NYSE's desire to have references to the Stock Exchange expunged from New York-New York, the lawsuit also seeks a fat slice of the casino's profits plus punitive damages.

The resort's incorporation of the NYSE facade and $lot Exchange reference have the likelihood of deceiving or confusing the public ... and bastardizing the NYSE marks by making them subject to ridicule, the suit states.

In a letter to NYSE lawyers, Tratos wrote: It seems incredulous that you would argue that the business of those companies would tarnish your client's mark by association. The New York Stock Exchange is already associated with gaming properties through its listing of those properties on its exchange.

The MGM Grand Corp., which is one of the joint-venture partners in New York-New York along with Primadonna Corp., is one of those gaming stocks traded on the NYSE.

In response to the allegation that the public would be confused that the NYSE is somehow endorsing the casino, Tratos scoffed that people are smart, they get the joke.

In a city where theme resorts dominate ... the public will recognize it as part of the environment, he said.

It is highly unlikely that anyone seeking the NYSE facade in that context would somehow mistakenly believe they were seeing the New York Stock Exchange building or had been literally transported to New York City, Tratos wrote in his letter.

He added that resort patrons are no more likely to believe that the New York Stock Exchange sponsored, approved, sanctioned or authorized the resort than they are to believe it to be sponsored by owners of the Empire State Building, the owners of the Chrysler Building or the United States Government, which owns the Statue of Liberty.

People vacationing in Las Vegas and coming to the hotel will undoubtedly know where they are and what they are doing there, Tratos wrote.

The Stock Exchange responded by filing the lawsuit and, according to Tratos, pursuing it with a shotgun approach more vigorously than any other case involving New York-New York.

The resort's lawyer said that for the Stock Exchange to win the lawsuit it would have to prove there has been confusion and a resort-sponsored survey of people in New York, Los Angeles, Las Vegas and San Diego showed people are not going to be confused.

Tratos said a settlement may be close in the case, which he said likely would not have become a legal fight if the NYSE had not waited until after the resort was open to complain.

Based on our ( preconstruction ) brochures, a number of entities wrote to say they didn't want to be associated with New York-New York, Tratos said. Because we were still in the design phase, it was easy to redraft the plans and get on with the project.

Those included Radio City Music Hall and Rockefeller Center, which had concerns about the Atlas sculpture that New York-New York wanted to reproduce.

Tratos said the resort decided to create a similar but unique Atlas sculpture and while Rockefeller Center still objected, it didn't sue.

The longtime Las Vegas lawyer said attempts to compromise and settle the case are not out of concern that the resort wouldn't win.

There is no advantage to business people to spend money on lawyers, Tratos said in his office in the Hughes Center off Paradise Road. Smart, good businesses avoid the fights.

He said the settlement proposal is for the resort to change the bas relief at the top of the facade in the resort to ensure that it is different from the NYSE.

But the issue may revert to a business decision.

One estimate for the work is more than $120,000 and that, coupled with other factors, may make it feasible to take the case before a federal judge.

Settlements, Tratos admitted, sometimes can encourage others to sue. And he said there may be value in the resort taking a stand and saying that this industry is legitimate and legal and it doesn't serve anyone's interests to cast aspersions on legalized gambling.

But for a gaming enterprise, the gamble of going to court is a major consideration.

We like sure bets, Tratos said.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:03
OLD GOLD (projections) ID#238295:
OLDMAN:Your stock market projections coincide very closely with my own. How bad a drop do you expect once we top out?

I doubt gold will get back to its lows, but we are going under #300 very soon. April gold already off a buck on access.

Date: Tue Feb 03 1998 00:03
TZADEAK* (@ Earl...I'm Flattered that...) ID#372344:
You chose me out of a number posters who also questioned the relevance of the posts in question to Gold.... However I have a
feeling that budget constraints may not be a factor with regards
to the issue of poster's content relating to the subject of Gold...
I, as you well know did not set the netiqutte rules here at Kitco...
they have been here looong before I arrived.Further with respect to your
statement that other posters have at other times have done same,
does not excuse IMHO tonight's posts. I am about as lightened up
as one gets believe me, I just feel there are numerous other chat sites
related to said subjects, and so very few Gold chat sites, in general, that
it does not serve our collective purpose which I feel is to discuss , give our views,maybe make? some money,and possibly even encourage the many lurkers ,who do not post, to possibly consider buying Gold for their first time,as a good investment, instead, of having them lurk thru the majority of posts lately, that are not really relevant to Gold . But don't get me wrong,I also do enjoy an occasional laugh, but JMHO, that is what they should just be occasional.....

BTW You may wish to look for e-mail....

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