KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 23:30
vronsky (German unemployment reaches 60-year high -- not seen SINCE 1938) ID#426220:

German unemployment reaches 60- year high - - - -

Unemployment in Germany has risen to its highest level for 60 years.

The figures announced on Friday prompted Chancellor Helmut Kohl to concede that German unemployment would NOT be halved by the year 2000 - a goal he pledged to achieve two years ago.

Most economists expect the jobless rate, already at the highest levels SINCE THE EARLY 1930S WHEN ADOLF HITLER CAME TO POWER, TO RISE FURTHER IN 1998.

...Can intelligent politicians of the world NOT see what we are all hurling towards with almost calvalier abandon?

1938... the eve of der Blitzkieg

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 23:07
Poorboys (LGB@THE@GREAT@AMERICAN@DREAM) ID#224149:
LGB- Every week you rant about your Great America , Sorry it belongs to Big Oil ( The Seven Sisters ) and the great military machine that supposingly protects your freedom .Since Kennedy's assassination by Big Oil only puppet Presidents have ruled your country of course congress and the house are for the people RIGHT LGB.How many Americans died for Oil ww1,ww11,South Korea,Vietnam,Iraq so you can ride in that lovely car of yours.Your America is a Facist State run by Big Oil,Dope peddlers,and Wall Street crooks.Turn off your tv ,radio ,dump your newspapers in the garbage and take your kids for a walk in the park.Do you feel safe ? Maybe you carry a handgun?How about some mace? LGB you have been poisoned by the media go home shoot up your car with gas ( Drugs ) your a typical American addict brainwashed for the coming World Order.P.S. Another maybe I said it for you.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 22:59
MJPL (Inflation or deflation?) ID#153111:
I keep hearing about deflation just around the corner and so the Fed is now taking steps to prevent this. I for one don't believe that deflation is the future, place me in the inflationary camp. Classical deflation occurs where you have a fixed amount of currency, currency in circulation as the Fed calls it ( it is listed each and every week in Barron's ) . A nations banking system takes the currency in circ and via fractional reserve banking creates the M's 1,2& 3 via loans. Deflation occurs where the loans go bad and the M's grind down relentlessly toward currency in circulation.

Well being the curious type that I am I spent many hours in libraries gathering data on the markets and on the Fed's balance sheet. On around 5 Jan 1920 there was US$4.48 billion printed up and in circulation; this weeks Barron's gives the figure of US$480.75 billion in circulation. That is an increase by a factor of 107.31, where once there was US$1.00 there is now US$107.31. One of the purposes for creating the Federal Reserve was to create a Flexible Dollar, I would say that after 85 years one of the stated the mission of the Fed is a mission accomplished.

The stock market has not done as well. On that 5 Jan 1920 the Dow stood at 108.76, near its post WWI stock market highs ( it fell to 65.33 in August 1921 ) . The Dow as it now stands is also near its recent highs and is at 7580.42 as of 9 Jan 98. Simple math shows that the Dow is up by a factor only 69.7 as opposed to the factor of currency in circulation's 107.31. Their are some that will point out that the Dow index doesn't figure in dividends and so it really will not show the true wealth generated by the Dow's index increase; true enough, but I would point out to them that the index ignores the effect of capitol gain taxes. Only GE has remained in the Dow since 1920, you had to sell the buggy whip manufactures and buy RCA at sometime to keep the Dow as your stock portfolio.

My point is that money is up times 107.31, the Dow is up only times 69.7 and that doesn't factor in tax losses to ones portfolio.

How is deflation to occurs when the currency in circulation is in the control of people who are all to willing to swell the basic stock of dollars to suit their political needs. Deflation is where the M's fall down to the currency in circulation, what if the Fed swelled currency on circulation up to the M's? In the 1930's there was still a echo of morality with government's management of money from the memory of the recently dead gold standard, gold as money is prehistory for most people now. If the US Government, in a crisis, told the people that it was to give debt relief by giving the required credit or even cash to creditors owed to them by their debtors how many people in the US would object to such a proposal? One month your Visa bill said you owed $15,000 the next your Visa bill said you owed $0.00. Computers are so nice.

Would they do it? If the time arises where they see the need to keep voters happy in a credit crunch, I think that they will do what they think that they could get away with it.

Hey Sling Shot, watch out about those Old Navy Buddies. They have developed lying to a fine art, nothing else to do on the Midwatch except to lie to each other about all the fun they're having.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 22:30
Lurker 777 (Just ANOTHER brick in the wall. We don't need no education (P.Floyd dsotm)) ID#317247:
Another:
Hear me now, “if gold tries to go lower than US$ $280 the BIS will buy it OUTRIGHT in the OPEN for all to see”! They must! They will! I know.

Another has predicted without any doubt that Gold will not close lower than $280. and the bottom is in. If BIS makes a move and $280. holds I will take another look at ANOTHER. I hope he is genuine and I will vehemently await next weeks market movements.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 22:24
MoReGoLd (@HK PLUNGE Breaks 8000) ID#348286:
7986.97 ........... - 907.67 ........... - 10.20%

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 22:22
Jung (Bart and all: Submitted for your comments) ID#237164:
This anchor, ( redirection to the web page ) , has been
tested via the Kitco posting mechanism. It seems Ok.

http://www.acsys.com/~hong/pubfiles/kitco/bartkitco.html

Look for green words.

Go there to see if you like the presentation. Since I
get to work on this on weekends and evenings, this is
how far I got. I have to build a gui ( graphical user
interface ) , html- ers like to call it a form, so that
you can retrieve data from the archive.

If the presentation looks ok the you, then the form or
gui will be available shortly.

The page is as a result of asking the indexed arhive for
all postings that have 'bart' or 'kitco' in it ...

/ ( bart ) | ( kitco ) /

Note the presentation is very similar to the original
text. Also, the light green coloring indicate the
searched for and matched words.

The service routines seem to work ok. I spent the
week end testing various retrievals. But I am sure
there is nothing like the user community to test
a piece of software. So, when the lookup software
does get released, please be patient with me.

I indexed 67 recent days of postings. The indexer took
17 minutes to do this. So, if we add to the index at the
end of each day, or even at the end of each 6 parts per
day, the processing is not a problem.

I discarded postings which were identical to a previous
one. The logic being, since the words are identical,
it would only be confusing after the retrieval.

Also, the primary access to the postings is by the time
of posting ... since that is how I see you refering to
postings. There are a few postings that have the
same time mark ... to the second. So, I had to
add a sequence number, 0, 1, etc to the time. But
That should not matter because the key lookup by time
allows duplicate entries and partial matches. What this
means is that if you are close to the time of the
post, say it was during the 15:30 minute of the day,
then all post for that period can be retrieved.

The 67 days of postings amounted to about 26 mega bytes.
Boy, you guys write a lot :- ) ... To search the whole
base for something as odd as 'bart' or 'kitco' took
1 min and 45 seconds. To search only Janyary 1998 for
the same took only a few seconds. So, we will suggest
you limit general searches to days or weeks or months
or knowing it takes longer, to use searches on whole
years less frequently.

Any suggestions will be appreciated.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 22:13
Jung (Bart and all: Submitted for your comments) ID#237164:
This anchor, ( redirection to the web page ) , has been
tested via the Kitco posting mechanism. It seems Ok.

http://www.acsys.com/~hong/pubfiles/kitco/bartkitco.html

Look for green words.

Go there to see if you like the presentation. Since I
get to work on this on weekends and evenings, this is
how far I got. I have to build a gui ( graphical user
interface ) , html- ers like to call it a form, so that
you can retrieve data from the archive.

If the presentation looks ok the you, then the form or
gui will be available shortly.

The page is as a result of asking the indexed arhive for
all postings that have 'bart' or 'kitco' in it ...

/ ( bart ) | ( kitco ) /

Note the presentation is very similar to the original
text. Also, the light green coloring indicate the
searched for and matched words.

The service routines seem to work ok. I spent the
week end testing various retrievals. But I am sure
there is nothing like the user community to test
a piece of software. So, when the lookup software
does get released, please be patient with me.

I indexed 67 recent days of postings. The indexer took
17 minutes to do this. So, if we add to the index at the
end of each day, or even at the end of each 6 parts per
day, the processing is not a problem.

I discarded postings which were identical to a previous
one. The logic being, since the words are identical,
it would only be confusing after the retrieval.

Also, the primary access to the postings is by the time
of posting ... since that is how I see you refering to
postings. There are a few postings that have the
same time mark ... to the second. So, I had to
add a sequence number, 0, 1, etc to the time. But
That should not matter because the key lookup by time
allows duplicate entries and partial matches. What this
means is that if you are close to the time of the
post, say it was during the 15:30 minute of the day,
then all post for that period can be retrieved.

The 67 days of postings amounted to about 26 mega bytes.
Boy, you guys write a lot :- ) ... To search the whole
base for something as odd as 'bart' or 'kitco' took
1 min and 45 seconds. To search only Janyary 1998 for
the same took only a few seconds. So, we will suggest
you limit general searches to days or weeks or months
or knowing it takes longer, to use searches on whole
years less frequently.

Any suggestions will be appreciated.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 22:05
jtaher (them golden grains) ID#249409:
Not exactly related to gold, but
I've noticed a few posts regarding
trading grain commodities.
You may want to check out
The Seasonal Trader
He provides a fundamental
approach to the seasonal analysis
of commodity futures prices for
grains and meats.
No hype, just basic supply/demand,
carryover, exports, etc.

He currently sees:
May wheat bottoming near 3.20
May corn bottoming near 2.50
May soybeans bottom at 6.10
( these are based on his
economical value analysis- -
prices can overshoot their
fundamental value )
More info at
http://stafutures.com/st.htm
or
email dtedrol9@mail.idt.net

Hope this helps those looking for
more trading info for grains
( to take your mind off the precious metals... )

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 22:01
SlingShot (bet they wish they had a dollar clause to nullify) ID#105111:
One of the things FDR did in 1934 was to have Congress pass a law nullifying the gold clause in all contracts in force in America at the time. It was a common practice then for long- term contracts to specify repayment in gold coin of the present weight and fineness ( James Grant, Money of the Mind, pg 228 ) . Creditors had learned to protect themselves from debased currency using these clauses. The clauses were a disaster for the debtor when the dollar was debased in 1934. A debtor owing $100 in 1932 dollars now owed $170 in 1934 dollars, if his contract had a gold clause. When Congress nullified all gold clauses, there was a tremendous government- dictated flow of wealth from creditors to debtors, according to Grant. I think he is right.

What about the Asians? They hold a huge pile of debt defined in $US, not in local currency. But their currency just got debased in a big- time way, relative to the dollar. They still have to pay in $US, which are now much more expensive to them. Their debt was just expanded by a factor of 2:1 ( or more ) , and they didn't even get to build any factories or mansions. Though they don't have a dollar clause to nullify, I suspect that they will eventually have to defend themselves by selling of US debt that they hold, and THAT will start the ball rolling on the dollar. Where will the world go? I STILL think it's going to be PMs.

- - SlingShot

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 22:00
cherokee__A (@------another-way----to-play-----) ID#344308:

what is happening in asia is fixing to cause the grains to
possibly make their ALL TIME LOWS!!

we have the 2'nd largest soybean and corn harvest in history....
the silo's are full waiting on buyers....they are not coming...
food will have to wait.......there is fixing to be a slaughter
in the grains......soybeans particularly.......corn and beans
down hard.......possible multi- day limit moves down.....
may '98 5750 soybean puts monday morning.....$75.00 each....
most of the grain puts are very cheap......this will change rapidly....

same thing for ALL of our exportable commodities.....pork, beef,
grains....going down.....

gold's day is close......i can feel it......if another is correct,
the key will be knowing when to sell the paper gold.....timing
and greed.........we should feel the power of the golden hammer's
might in the next 2 weeks......imnsho.........

cherokee!; ) - - harvester- of- the- buyers- of- the- bean..and- the- sellers- of- gold

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:59
cherokee__A (@------another-way----to-play-----) ID#344308:

what is happening in asia is fixing to cause the grains to
possibly make their ALL TIME LOWS!!

we have the 2'nd largest soybean and corn harvest in history....
the silo's are full waiting on buyers....they are not coming...
food will have to wait.......there is fixing to be a slaughter
in the grains......soybeans particularly.......corn and beans
down hard.......possible multi- day limit moves down.....
may '98 5750 soybean puts monday morning.....$75.00 each....
most of the grain puts are very cheap......this will change rapidly....

same thing for ALL of our exportable commodities.....pork, beef,
grains....going down.....

gold's day is close......i can feel it......if another is correct,
the key will be knowing when to sell the paper gold.....timing
and greed.........we should feel the power of the golden hammer's
might in the next 2 weeks......imnsho.........

cherokee!; ) - - harvester- of- the- buyers- of- the- bean..and- the- sellers- of- gold

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:50
MoReGoLd (@``While it may be ugly it won't be a full scale crash. It could be, but it won't necessarily be.'') ID#348286:
Sunday January 11, 8:55 pm Eastern Time

HK stocks set to slide on cocktail of bearish news

HONG KONG, Jan 12 ( Reuters ) - Hong Kong stocks were expected to dive on Monday following a rise in prime lending rates on Friday and news that Peregrine Investments Holdings Ltd ( OTC BB:PGIQY - news; 0090.HK ) may be heading for liquidation.

``Support remains very weak and we might see some panic selling in the morning,'' said Ben Kwong, director of research at Dharmala Securities.

He believed the downside of the Hang Seng Index might be at 8,000, but said bargain hunting might put the brakes on the fall in later trade.

The Hang Seng Index plunged 359.89 points, or 3.89 percent, to 8,894.64 on Friday. That meant the index sliced off 1,785.93 points, or 16.7 percent, last week. The Hang Seng London Reference Index then dropped 513.82 points, or 5.78 percent, to 8,380.82.

``They weren't even discounting the whole situation,'' said Kent Rossiter, institutional sales manager at Nikko Securities.

``I think everybody's talking about a 500 points fall and that sounds reasonable. If it falls very much below that you will find people aggressively buying the market.''

Wall Street's losses on Friday were expected to put further pressure on sentiment. The Dow industrials sank 2.85 percent to 7,580.42.

Major Hong Kong banks hiked their prime lending rates by 75 basis points to 10.25 percent on Friday in response to prevailing higher interbank rates.

Zurich Centre Investments Ltd pulled out of a deal on Friday to inject US$200 million into Peregrine. A Peregrine source said the company may make a decision to appoint a liquidator today.

Glenn Lesko, head of sales trading at HG Asia, said that although the local bearish news were not confirmed on Friday, it was to some extent expected.

``While it ( today's market fall ) may be ugly it won't necessarily be a full scale crash. It could be, but it won't necessarily be.''

``One thing that could probably make it worse than it otherwise would have been is comments from David Li from Bank of East Asia saying he thinks interest rates could be raised once again.''

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:48
MoReGoLd (@``While it may be ugly it won't be a full scale crash. It could be, but it won't necessarily be.'') ID#348286:
Sunday January 11, 8:55 pm Eastern Time

HK stocks set to slide on cocktail of bearish news

HONG KONG, Jan 12 ( Reuters ) - Hong Kong stocks were expected to dive on Monday following a rise in prime lending rates on Friday and news that Peregrine Investments Holdings Ltd ( OTC BB:PGIQY - news; 0090.HK ) may be heading for liquidation.

``Support remains very weak and we might see some panic selling in the morning,'' said Ben Kwong, director of research at Dharmala Securities.

He believed the downside of the Hang Seng Index might be at 8,000, but said bargain hunting might put the brakes on the fall in later trade.

The Hang Seng Index plunged 359.89 points, or 3.89 percent, to 8,894.64 on Friday. That meant the index sliced off 1,785.93 points, or 16.7 percent, last week. The Hang Seng London Reference Index then dropped 513.82 points, or 5.78 percent, to 8,380.82.

``They weren't even discounting the whole situation,'' said Kent Rossiter, institutional sales manager at Nikko Securities.

``I think everybody's talking about a 500 points fall and that sounds reasonable. If it falls very much below that you will find people aggressively buying the market.''

Wall Street's losses on Friday were expected to put further pressure on sentiment. The Dow industrials sank 2.85 percent to 7,580.42.

Major Hong Kong banks hiked their prime lending rates by 75 basis points to 10.25 percent on Friday in response to prevailing higher interbank rates.

Zurich Centre Investments Ltd pulled out of a deal on Friday to inject US$200 million into Peregrine. A Peregrine source said the company may make a decision to appoint a liquidator today.

Glenn Lesko, head of sales trading at HG Asia, said that although the local bearish news were not confirmed on Friday, it was to some extent expected.

``While it ( today's market fall ) may be ugly it won't necessarily be a full scale crash. It could be, but it won't necessarily be.''

``One thing that could probably make it worse than it otherwise would have been is comments from David Li from Bank of East Asia saying he thinks interest rates could be raised once again.''

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:42
Jung (Testing to see if url posting is ok) ID#237164:

Testing to see if the anchor is ok ...

http://www.acsys.com/~hong/pubfiles/kitco/bartkitco.html

end of test.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:40
Haggis__A (LGB2 and KARLITO99.....................) ID#398105:

A BRIEF HISTORY OF GOLD FROM SOUTH AFRICA

British colonial capitalism has always been the mainstay of the oligarchical feudal system of privilege in Britain and remains so to the present day. When the Boers of South Africa defied the British in 1899, they had no idea that the war so relentlessly pursued by Queen Victoria, was financed by the incredible amounts of money which came from the trade in China.

Committee members Cecil John Rhodes, Barney Barnato and Alfred Beit instigated and engineered the war. Rhodes was the principle agent for the Rothschilds, whose banks were awash in cash. Rhodes, Barnato, Oppenheimer, Joel and Beit- - dispossessed the South African Boers of their birthright, the gold and diamonds that lay beneath their soil. The
South African Boers received little out of the billions of dollars derived from generated the sale gold and diamonds.

The British quickly took full control of these vast treasures.

How could the British Crown have succeeded in pulling off this stunning feat of gigantic proportion? To accomplish such a Herculean task requires skilled organizing with devoted agents- in- place to carry out the daily instructions passed down from the conspirators'hierarchy. The first step was a press propaganda campaign portraying the Boers as uncivilized barbarians, only slightly human, who were denying British citizens the right to vote in the Boer Republic. Then, demands were made on Paul Kruger, leader of the Transvaal Republic, which of course could not be met. After that, a series of incidents were staged to provoke the Boers into retaliation, but that didn't work either. Then came the infamous Jameson Raid where a certain Jameson ( A Scotsman ) led a party of several hundred armed men in an attack on the transvaal. War followed immediately thereafter.

Queen Victoria mounted the largest and best equipped army that the world had ever seen at that time ( 1898 ) . Victoria thought the war would be over in two weeks, since the Boers had no standing army and no trained militia and would be no match for her 400,000 soldiers drawn from the ranks of Britain's underclasses. The Boers never numbered more
than 80,000 farmers and their sons- - some were as young as fourteen- - Rudyard Kipling also thought the war would be over in less than a week. The British initially did not take the War seriously, depicted in the movie Oh What A Lovely War by Sir Richard Attenbourgh.

Instead, with rifle in one hand and the Bible in the other, the Boers held out for three years. We went to South Africa think- ing the war would be over in a week, said Kipling. Instead, the Boers taught us no end of a lesson.

After the war ended in 1902, the British Crown had to consolidate its grip on the unimaginable fortune of gold and diamonds that lay beneath the barren veldt of the Boer Republics of Transvaal and Orange Free State. This was done through the Round Table of the legend of King Arthur and his Knights. Using SCOTTISH Rite Freemason principles in selecting members of Round Table, the chosen underwent a period of intense training at Cambridge and Oxford Universities under the watchful eyes of John Ruskin, a self- confessed old school socialist, and T. H. Green, an operative of M16. A British M16 intelligence operation established by the British which, together with the Rhodes Scholarship program, is in
place today. Rhodes Scholars have include Premier Bob Hawke of Australia and President Bill Clinton.

The Round Table was established in South Africa by Cecil Rhodes and funded by the English Rothschild family. Its purpose was to train business leaders loyal to the British Crown who would secure the vast gold and diamond treasures for the British Crown.

Effective control of the South African gold mining industry is held by Sir Harry Oppenheimer and the Anglo American Coporation. To date, the order of 1 200 million ounces of gold has been produced
- equating to US$ 360 000 000 000 000.

For comparison, the USA National Debt is $5 479 700 204 736 and the Government Asset Value is $ $1 298 000 000 000.

In other words the total current value of gold produced from South Africa under the business control of the British is greater than the US Government Asset value by an approximate factor of 300.

It is for this reason, LGB2 and KARLITO99, that - GOLD IS NOT DEAD!

Rule Britannia...............

Aye, Haggis

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:31
Crystal Ball (Re: Stock market chat) ID#287367:
It's mostly gloomy, with alot of denial. People looking to buy the dip. They don't give a sh!t about the rest of the world ( LGB mentality ) . When I let them know how Asian markets are tubing it, and said, Hey, those are human beings suffering over there, I got told F**k 'Em, it's got nothing to do with us. By the way, is Nikkei on sushi break?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:31
A.Goose () ID#20136:

Sunday January 11, 8:28 pm Eastern Time

Peregrine liquidator may be appointed Monday

HONG KONG, Jan 12 ( Reuters ) - Peregrine Investments Holdings Ltd ( OTC BB:PGIQY - news; 0090.HK ) has defaulted on a payment in the
United States and a decision to appoint a liquidator may be made on Monday, a company source said.

The Peregrine source said talks with banks had failed on Sunday and the company could no longer assure staff pay.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980111/peregrine__1.html

Sunday January 11, 8:45 pm Eastern Time

Peregrine says trading in warrants halted

HONG KONG, Jan 12 ( Reuters ) - Peregrine Investments Holdings Ltd [OTC BB:PGIQY - news] said on Monday trading in warrants issued by its
subsidiary Peregrine Derivatives Ltd and guaranteed by Peregrine Investments was suspended at own request.

The companies said in a joint statement the warrants were suspended from trade ``having regard to the circumstances relating to the financial situation
of the guarantor ( Peregrine Investments ) .''

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980111/peregrine__2.html


Sunday January 11, 8:55 pm Eastern Time

HK stocks set to slide on cocktail of bearish news

HONG KONG, Jan 12 ( Reuters ) - Hong Kong stocks were expected to dive on Monday following a rise in prime lending rates on Friday and news
that Peregrine Investments Holdings Ltd ( OTC BB:PGIQY - news; 0090.HK ) may be heading for liquidation.

``Support remains very weak and we might see some panic selling in the morning,'' said Ben Kwong, director of research at Dharmala Securities.

He believed the downside of the Hang Seng Index might be at 8,000, but said bargain hunting might put the brakes on the fall in later trade.

The Hang Seng Index plunged 359.89 points, or 3.89 percent, to 8,894.64 on Friday. That meant the index sliced off 1,785.93 points, or 16.7
percent, last week. The Hang Seng London Reference Index then dropped 513.82 points, or 5.78 percent, to 8,380.82.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980111/hk_stocks__1.html


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:29
MoReGoLd (@For those who missed this earlier: ANALYST PREDICTS HK INDEX 4000 ) ID#348286:
Sunday January 11, 8:28 am Eastern Time

Regent - Hang Seng may fall to 4,000 - paper

LONDON, Jan 11 ( Reuters ) - Regent Pacific Group Ltd's chairman Jim Mellon said Hong Kong's Hang Seng index could halve from current levels before it recovers, the Sunday Times newspaper said on Sunday.

``I hate picking movements in indices but I would predict the Hang Seng could fall to 4,000 or 5,000 before it bottoms,'' the paper quoted Mellon from the Hong Kong- based global emerging markets investment house as having said.

According to the Sunday Times, Mellon also said: ``I don't think anything can stop a freefall in Hong Kong. There will be one more downward spiral involving the collapse of the Hong Kong market and the Hong Kong dollar.''

The Hang Seng lost 3.89 percent ( 359.89 points ) last Friday to close at 8,894.64. It ended 1997 at 10,722.76, and has thus lost just over 17 percent since.

The Hong Kong dollar, by comparison, has been held within a few cents of 7.75 to the dollar throughout the 1990s, or time immemorial in forex market terms.

It is the only Asian currency which has not lost significant ground against the U.S. dollar in the past six months.

Regent Pacific, which was floated last May, concentrates on fund management, corporate finance, corporate investment and security brokerage.

It also provides investment management and advisory services in emerging markets to institutional and professional investors worldwide.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:25
cherokee__A (@-------where-is-the-mystery-man------?) ID#344308:

aragonIII@1838- - - - -

ok......suppose 'another' is 100% correct.........


........GOLD IS BELOW $280.OO.......where is the big player buying
................................in the open to force the paradigm
................................upon us.....we await im- patiently!!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:25
Mr. Mick (Ted - Steelers snatching Defeat from the jaws of Victory..................) ID#345321:
you were right. Cordell suks! If Denver wins the Stupor Bowl, will we have a BIG bear market?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:25
Crystal Ball (@ Puetz) ID#287367:
I read in Barrons today next target for HK is 4000. They're gonna Hafta devalue- - getting to be too uncompetitive with all the other SEAsia economies, not to mention that defending the $HK by raising interest rates sky- high is killing real estate market and the economy.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:22
Myrmidon (Changes) ID#34592:

The land of the free
and home of the brave,

is changing to:

The land of the FEE
and home of the NAIVE

why? Nonody is interested to know what is going

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:19
HighRise (Singapore) ID#401460:
Singapore
Straits Times
^SS1
9:16PM
1108.74
- 67.61
- 5.75%

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:18
Schultz (Cmax) ID#287305:
Yes, that makes sense. I've sort of flip flopped on that issue a few times as I mulled it over.

Thank you for the additional clarity provided by your example. Basic truths are usually quite simple.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:17
Ted (Breaking News) ID#364147:
Feb. Gold @ UNCH

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:17
HighRise (Taiwan) ID#401460:
Taiwan
Taiwan Weighted
^TWII
9:15PM
7428.22
- 308.98
- 3.99%

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:14
Ted (Hang Seng) ID#364147:
http://imsp003.netvigator.com/fina/inde/hsidata.cgi

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:14
oris (ANOTHER's story) ID#242258:
I dare to join on the subject of ANOTHER's story.
It is very, just very interesting story and it
has a certain sense. What confuses me is why we
learned about this deal of a century, which is
supposed to be a top secret.

Free top secrets which can change the world?!?

Hard to believe we are so lucky to know...

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:13
Realistic (Hong-Kong) ID#410194:
An exhaustion major bottom in the Hang- Seng?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:12
Speed (The next phase in Asia) ID#286199:
Excerpted from the Houston Chronicle:

Millions of Asia's migrant workers facing loss of jobs.
by Uli Schmetzer of the Chicago Tribune

Millions of Asian migrant workers whose overseas jobs have been the main support of poor villages and communities for decades are expected to be told to go home by their host nations this year as Asia's economic crisis hurtles toward full- blown recession. Malaysia has already warned that it will expel as many as half of its 1.8 million- person foreign work force, mainly Indonesians, Bangladeshis and Filipinos, to safeguard jobs for Malays.

The article goes on to describe fears of ethnic violence over scarce jobs.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:12
HighRise (Hong Kong) ID#401460:
Hong Kong
Hang Seng
^HSI
9:12PM
8204.13
- 690.51
- 7.76%

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:11
Cmax (Refer) ID#344205:
Refer:
I wholeheartedly disagree with your post regsarding ANOTHER. You have obviously not not read the previous ones, and your conclusions regarding his person and allusions to racism are totally unfounded.

ANOTHER/BT postings have done more to galvanize thought on KITCO, than any one else I have seen.


Aaarrggg. Cmax. ( No offense, Haggis )

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:11
Cmax () ID#344205:
Refer:
I wholeheartedly disagree with your post regsarding ANOTHER. You have obviously not not read the previous ones, and your conclusions regarding his person and allusions to racism are totally unfounded.

ANOTHER/BT postings have done more to galvanize thought on KITCO, than any one else I have seen.


Aaarrggg. Cmax. ( No offense, Haggis )

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:10
2BR02B? (@cigarettes in POW camps) ID#263153:
Cmax ( @Schultz 02:23 and JTF ) - -

Of course, such a brash statement could only presuppose that gold is
money, and not a barbarous relic. I vote for money.

_____________________________________________________________

Gresham's Law: If there are two types of money whose values
in exchange are equal while there values in another use ( like
consumption ) are different, the more valuable item will be retained
for its other use while the less valuable item will continue to
circulate as money. Thus the bad ( less valuable ) money drives
out the good ( more valuable ) money out of circulation.


One doesn't find many silver or gold coins in change from
a vending machine.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:10
Ted (Earl................and the Meat (P)ackers) ID#364147:
sorry......lost my mind for a moment

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:10
Prometheus (How much gold is there?) ID#189273:
Just got in.

Heard an interesting bit on the radio news this morning:

Batteries were used in ancient Babylon. Archaelogists were perplexed as to the utility of jars lined with metal ( don't recall what was said ) with copper coils inside. It took a physicist examining them, to guess their use. He said they looked like batteries. Models were made and filled with a mild acid, vinegar and wine were used. They were able to generate a light current, I believe it was 1/2 volt, for 18 days. It is believed that these jars were used in electroplating. Now they are concerned that gold statues of great size, which are now believed to be solid gold, may be ONLY SKIN DEEP.

Sorry not to have a better source on this, but I was in a rain storm scanning the radio for traffic reports. Anyone heard of this? Any source data? Could those big guys ( like that multi- ton Budda ) be GOLD PLATE?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:07
vronsky (http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/ackerman011298.html) ID#426220:

What If the Dollar Just Keeps Rising?

Business couldn't be better, consumers are as confident as they've been inyears, the dollar is king and interest rates are bouncing near multi- year lows.

Not much for U.S. investors to worry about, right?

Think again. That strong dollar, of all things, is threatening to

blight the rosy picture by destabilizing financial markets and

constricting global trade. Moreover, there is no apparent way to

stop it. WHAT ARE THE DIRE RAMIFICATIONS

To read the report, copy & paste the URL ABOVE to your Internet call- up window ( Location ) , then hit ENTER.


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:05
Puetz (bpuetz@holli.com) ID#222167:
The s**t just hit the fan. Hong Kong opens down nearly 1000
points. Wanna know the next crisis point - - Hong Kong!

The crash has begun!!!!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:03
KO (Hong Kong down -9.41%) ID#270224:
..

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:01
vronsky (http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/ackerman011298.html) ID#426220:
What If the Dollar Just Keeps Rising?

Business couldn't be better, consumers are as confident as they've been inyears, the dollar is king and interest rates are bouncing near multi- year lows.

Not much for U.S. investors to worry about, right?

Think again. That strong dollar, of all things, is threatening to

blight the rosy picture by destabilizing financial markets and

constricting global trade. Moreover, there is no apparent way to

stop it. WHAT ARE THE DIRE RAMIFICATIONS

To read the report, copy & paste the URL ABOVE to your Internet call- up window ( Location ) , then hit ENTER.


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:01
STUDIO.R (@Earl....Re: your 19:27....) ID#93232:
Earl...My thoughts are along the same line as yours. As usual, you're to the point and rational. I think I'll hold on to a little paper money for a bit longer....the Conoco I trade at still accepts them and I still accept them from Koch Oil for my crude...Come to think about it, I accept them as much as I can. You too?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 20:59
Crystal Ball (Gold - what else) ID#287367:
Unfortunately for those already long, and fortunately for those still accumulating gold; if stock markets tank bigtime, people will think, Recession/Deflation/Depression and gold will go lower. I must agree with the EBeneezer the trend is still down for gold...for the present....The perception will change in due time, and gold will rise

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 20:57
refer (Tripple post) ID#41229:
Oooops, access slow tonight!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 20:57
2BR02B? (@capacity) ID#263153:
DEJ- -
That's what's happening in Asia. Credit expansion has come
to a halt and the chickens are coming home to roost. Notice
all the talk about excess capacity in Asia.

____________________________________________________________


I've seen reports of acres of rolled steel and other products
rusting outdoors in Asian locations. Eerily reminiscent of the
miles of empty or partially completed and abandoned condos,
office buildings and strip malls lining the boulevards of
suburban Houston at the height of the S& L implosion. They
were counting on continued 6- 8% growth this year and have
the inventory and manufacturing capacity to support that end.

Legislated tariffs pale in comparison to currency gyrations
of this magnitude and velocity. European and North American import
tariffs have been effectively lowered by 30- 40% and more, even
where previously nonexistent, while import tariffs into Asia
are raised by the same amount, for what, 60- 80% total readjustment
in a couple months?

The Sunday Portland Oregonian noted the sea of cargo containers
piling up in the shipyard at the port. I suspect its the same story
up and down the west coast. The report contained further anecdotal
evidence from the air cargo transport companies involved with things
like time sensitive parts and perishables to Asia. Company spokesman
said business was trailing off daily, planes being grounded and
returned to lessors, flight crews being laid off. That report was
two weeks ago.


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 20:57
WDL (@ As Simon & Garfunkel would say: Slip slidin' away...) ID#24095:
S & P Futures down sharply this hour ( after being up earlier ) ; S & P puts anyone? Grey Friday...followed by Black Monday...shades of October, 1987

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 20:55
Earl () ID#227238:
Ted: the packers SUK? ...... Ordinarily, you make a lot of good sense but, I guess, on occasion even the most level headed among us do and say the most idiotic things. .......... The Packers ( please cap the 'P' ) are in the midst of a new era. A follow on dynasty has been established. Vince is grinning from somewhere high above. .... He's listening to you, dippy do. Be careful. Yer canoe may spring a leak at a most inconvenient moment.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 20:54
Cmax (@Schultz 02:23 and JTF) ID#344205:
Schultz 02:23
“Perhaps the reserve currency ANOTHER refers to indicates a separate and non public level of trading for oil on the world market. Many of his posts allude to …”

Yes, that is what I thought he was getting at, but I was interested in hearing it in his words. Still, this mechanism seems redundant if you already have another one functioning.

“This would support the sudden disappearance of inflation in the 70's. That problem seemed to magically disappear.”

I believe that Rees- Mogg said it well…. They were just exercising their megapolitical power, and reasserted themselves on the world market to where they thought they should be….. but probably learned the hard way how water seeks it’s own level. After that, the U.S. has always maintained an aggressive agenda to inhibit that type of assertion by OPEC again, and IMHO, have left various mid- eastern tyrants in power to guarantee the ‘required presence” of the U.S. military and all the strings attached that go with it.

About a year ago, I posted here on KITCO a rough conclusion that divided all gold held by the U.S. central bank by all currency outstanding by the same, and came up with the result of $32,000/ounce. At that rate, that would put ANOTHER’s $10,000/ounce in perspective. Of course, such a brash statement could only presuppose that gold is money, and not a barbarous relic. I vote for money.



JTF:
COMEX only relates to the price of gold insofar as to where people will allow it to apply to physical. To believe anything else given the data we now have available, would irrational and ostrich- like.



Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 20:54
Cmax (@Schultz 02:23 and JTF) ID#344205:
Schultz 02:23
“Perhaps the reserve currency ANOTHER refers to indicates a separate and non public level of trading for oil on the world market. Many of his posts allude to …”

Yes, that is what I thought he was getting at, but I was interested in hearing it in his words. Still, this mechanism seems redundant if you already have another one functioning.

“This would support the sudden disappearance of inflation in the 70's. That problem seemed to magically disappear.”

I believe that Rees- Mogg said it well…. They were just exercising their megapolitical power, and reasserted themselves on the world market to where they thought they should be….. but probably learned the hard way how water seeks it’s own level. After that, the U.S. has always maintained an aggressive agenda to inhibit that type of assertion by OPEC again, and IMHO, have left various mid- eastern tyrants in power to guarantee the ‘required presence” of the U.S. military and all the strings attached that go with it.

About a year ago, I posted here on KITCO a rough conclusion that divided all gold held by the U.S. central bank by all currency outstanding by the same, and came up with the result of $32,000/ounce. At that rate, that would put ANOTHER’s $10,000/ounce in perspective. Of course, such a brash statement could only presuppose that gold is money, and not a barbarous relic. I vote for money.



JTF:
COMEX only relates to the price of gold insofar as to where people will allow it to apply to physical. To believe anything else given the data we now have available, would irrational and ostrich- like.



Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 20:43
KO (Asia Markets down again) ID#270224:
Australia - 2.24% , Japan - 1.00% , Malaysia - 2.15% , New Zealand - 1.96% , Singapore - 5.49% , Taiwan - 2.76% , Pakistan - 5.25%

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 20:39
SDRer__A (Der Spiegel: on the renaming of the Silk Road...) ID#288155:


On the Opium Highway
SPIEGEL reporter Thomas Huetlin about drug smuggling in
Kyrgyzstan:

Where once silk made its way from Asia to Europe, now drugs are
sent to Germany. The couriers are numerous and poor, the police
are corrupt, and the drug barons are secret heroes to the people.
The city of Osh on the ancient Silk Road is not one of the towns
where socialism ruined the mood for ever. Osh today is one of the
biggest drug centers in Central Asia. The deal begins in
Afghanistan. On a route of about 750 kilometers along the
mountain highway, the drugs' value increases tenfold. By the time it
arrives in Germany, a gram of opium is sold for 80 marks. The

Opium Highway has become the main smuggling route out of
Central Asia.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 20:35
refer (Aragorn@Another) ID#41229:
What you post seems plausable, but I would suggest that is not out of compasion, if another is of asian descent, they have been brought up to detest the western imperlistic pigs; Another also does not come out directly, but puts a vail of mystery before us. It has a persona of cloak and dagger. I also would not contribute it to translation because they have displayed knowing of english slang and the context inwhich it was used.

They way the whole thing was brought out is the toughest part to swallow.

I'm not suggesting that what is being said is false, but half or the most important part is not revealed. The dead giveaway to me is how they were practicly pleading for people to purchase physical gold, not paper gold.

It is unfortunate not of this age we cannot take people at face value, in bussiness I have learned when someone wants to do something nice for you there is something to be gained by them. This does not mean it is deceitful but be aware of the consequences.

It sounds to me that Another represents an very influential group, they're being told what to say or atleast that is what I gather from their posts. I would also suggest that this is not the only forum being singled out. If you are a foreign group trying to motivate an domestic contingency you will not be allowed airtime, nor would you want to bring that much attention to yourselves.

In bussines I have discovered word of mouth by far the most effective advertising; granted it does take longer. ( Hasn't this being going on for close to a year now! )

I stay on this due to the fact there are quite a number of thinker on this sight, that have far more market sense and far more time than I.

If it is viewed that it is not important to bother with the fact fine, I guess we will get to the answer possible in the near future! ( I'm just curious as hell. )

I also would suggest that Another monitors the sight more than they let on!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 20:28
refer (Aragorn@Another) ID#41229:
What you post seems plausable, but I would suggest that is not out of compasion, if another is of asian descent, they have been brought up to detest the western imperlistic pigs; Another also does not come out directly, but puts a vail of mystery before us. It has a persona of cloak and dagger. I also would not contribute it to translation because they have displayed knowing of english slang and the context inwhich it was used.

They way the whole thing was brought out is the toughest part to swallow.

I'm not suggesting that what is being said is false, but half or the most important part is not revealed. The dead giveaway to me is how they were practicly pleading for people to purchase physical gold, not paper gold.

It is unfortunate not of this age we cannot take people at face value, in bussiness I have learned when someone wants to do something nice for you there is something to be gained by them. This does not mean it is deceitful but be aware of the consequences.

It sounds to me that Another represents an very influential group, they're being told what to say or atleast that is what I gather from their posts. I would also suggest that this is not the only forum being singled out. If you are a foreign group trying to motivate an domestic contingency you will not be allowed airtime, nor would you want to bring that much attention to yourselves.

In bussines I have discovered word of mouth by far the most effective advertising; granted it does take longer. ( Hasn't this being going on for close to a year now! )

I stay on this due to the fact there are quite a number of thinker on this sight, that have far more market sense and far more time than I.

If it is viewed that it is not important to bother with the fact fine, I guess we will get to the answer possible in the near future! ( I'm just curious as hell. )

I also would suggest that Another monitors the sight more than they let on!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 20:13
refer (Aragorn@Another) ID#41229:
What you post seems plausable, but I would suggest that is not out of compasion, if another is of asian descent, they have been brought up to detest the western imperlistic pigs; Another also does not come out directly, but puts a vail of mystery before us. It has a persona of cloak and dagger. I also would not contribute it to translation because they have displayed knowing of english slang and the context inwhich it was used.

They way the whole thing was brought out is the toughest part to swallow.

I'm not suggesting that what is being said is false, but half or the most important part is not revealed. The dead giveaway to me is how they were practicly pleading for people to purchase physical gold, not paper gold.

It is unfortunate not of this age we cannot take people at face value, in bussiness I have learned when someone wants to do something nice for you there is something to be gained by them. This does not mean it is deceitful but be aware of the consequences.

It sounds to me that Another represents an very influential group, they're being told what to say or atleast that is what I gather from their posts. I would also suggest that this is not the only forum being singled out. If you are a foreign group trying to motivate an domestic contingency you will not be allowed airtime, nor would you want to bring that much attention to yourselves.

In bussines I have discovered word of mouth by far the most effective advertising; granted it does take longer. ( Hasn't this being going on for close to a year now! )

I stay on this due to the fact there are quite a number of thinker on this sight, that have far more market sense and far more time than I.

If it is viewed that it is not important to bother with the fact fine, I guess we will get to the answer possible in the near future! ( I'm just curious as hell. )

I also would suggest that Another monitors the sight more than they let on!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 20:02
A.Goose () ID#20136:
gold ( feb ) now at 279.3 quote.com
279.2 dbc.com
279.3 cbs market watch
kitco frozen
So IT IS UP!!! Great!!!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:56
powmain () ID#225127:
It looks like Uncle Sam is buying Korea and the Nikkei. If the money can be printed fast enough all of Asia is on their list.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:53
powmain () ID#225127:
It looks like Uncle Sam is buying Korea and the Nikkei. If the money can be printed fast enough all of Asia is on their list.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:49
Earl () ID#227238:
Ted: the packers SUK? ...... Ordinarily, you make a lot of good sense but, I guess, on occasion even the most level headed among us do and say the most idiotic things. .......... The Packers ( please cap the 'P' ) are in the midst of a new era. A follow on dynasty has been established. Vince is grinning from somewhere high above. .... He's listening to you, dippy do. Be careful. Yer canoe may spring a leak at a most inconvenient moment.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:48
Earl () ID#227238:
Ted: the packers SUK? ...... Ordinarily, you make a lot of good sense but, I guess, on occasion even the most level headed among us do and say the most idiotic things. .......... The Packers ( please cap the 'P' ) are in the midst of a new era. A follow on dynasty has been established. Vince is grinning from somewhere high above. .... He's listening to you, dippy do. Be careful. Yer canoe may spring a leak at a most inconvenient moment.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:45
Crystal Ball (@ Spanky) ID#287367:
You have mail

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:44
A.Goose () ID#20136:
quote.com is up.

http://www.quote.com/cgi- bin/jchart- form?genApplet= yes

gc8g 287.7

Thanks everyone.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:43
Crystal Ball (A Goose: http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/curcommt.html?source=blq/usawww) ID#287367:
Goosey - cut and paste above URL
ALL- Blood is flowing in the streets of Asia and Oceana
AustraliaAll Ordinaries 7:36PM 2537.5 - 65.6 - 2.52%
IndiaBSE 30 93530.20 - 67.96 - 1.89%
IndonesiaJakartaComposite 9342.970 - 4.138 - 1.19%
JapanNikkei 225 7:36PM 14719.18 - 275.92 - 1.84%
New Zealand NZSE 40 7:33PM 2224.45 - 44.84 - 1.98%
PakistanKarachi 1572.78 - 87.23 - 5.25%

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:43
Mike Sheller (Amen Brother) ID#347447:
ARAGORN III: I'm with you buddy. You're preaching to the converted with ME. In principle I believe in a 100% gold commodity money standard where every paper note is a receipt for a stated amount ( by weight ) of .9999 gold. Anything less, or other, is BS. My favorite economists are Murray Rothbard and Ludwig Von Mises, my favorite founding American Philosopher Thomas Jefferson, and my favorite 20th century American philosopher ( by way of Russia ) Ayn Rand. I think early Greenspan was brilliant as well. Perhaps its time for him to shrug. I am really a very simple person.
On gold, I'm with you all the way.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:42
SlingShot (Exporting Inflation) ID#105111:
An old Navy buddy has been telling me for years that the US has been exporting its inflation to the rest of the world. I suspect that the the EU is Europe's way of trying to defend itself from us ( US ) , but what defense has Asia got? .... The events we are seeing now in SE Asia show me that the answer is nothing. I agree with Mr. Corcoran, the countries of SE Asia are being forced to pay for a financial crisis that is not of their own making. There is a lot of power associated with being Asia's biggest market. We've been able to print up tremendous amounts of fiat $US, but it's the Asian currencies that go into the tank. This is fundamentally unfair. I detest US politicians buying votes with my grandson's future taxes. Finagling a way to make the people of Asia pay for American stupidity is equally shameful. - - SlingShot

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:39
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Aragorn III - - Excellent reasoning and rational! Very nice.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:38
Ted ('Happy Days' are back again...........and ain't everthing great) ID#364147:
Nikkei now only down 2- 7- 5- - - - - - - - the packers SUK- - - - - - go Broncs

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:35
Ted (Poorboys........................) ID#364147:
Thankx~~~~~~~

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:33
A.Goose () ID#20136:
Thanks for all the help. Please give the url you are using when you give us a quote. We ought to be able to come up with a common number if we keep trying.

Thanks again.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:29
DEJ (Isn't gold up 25 cents from N.Y. close? ) ID#270236:
Looks like $278.5 current v. $278.25 N.Y. close.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:27
Earl () ID#227238:
Aragorn III ( ANOTHER ...in a nutshell ) : Your interpretation was very helpful to my understanding of Another's thoughts. ..... Quite apart from whether they are valid or not.

It seems to me that the first real sign of change regarding acceptance of a different medium of exchange, would be to see merchants in troubled lands begin to price their goods in a new medium. ie, gold for example. This would make it easier for people to begin the process of change in their own minds. Again, it seems to me, that consumers have not viewed values in terms of gold for a very long time and will not begin to adopt a new view until it is demanded by sellers.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:26
WDL (@overnight markets) ID#24095:
Goose: I have Feb. gold up .20

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:24
Speed (and so do I) ID#286199:
make that silver down .01 at 5.66

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:23
Speed (Current prices) ID#286199:
EBN has gold down .20 and silver down .1 ( the arrows and decimal points are wrong on silver.


http://www.ebn.co.uk/Markets/Commodities/

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:19
DEJ (Fiat money cannot replace commodity money.) ID#270236:
The reason is that there is nothing to restrain the expansion of credit
in a fiat money standard and it doesn't make any difference what kind of
fiat money you use. All fiat money has eventually failed. Why will this
time be different? It is a simple problem of capital budgeting. When
credit expands beyond the real savings of an economy, interest rates are
artifically lowered. If you remember capital budgeting, you discount
the cash flow from any potential investment. The lower the interest rate
the more projects look good. With artifically low interest rates investment capital gets skewed to projects that wouldn't have been undertaken with market rates. These projects in reality are unprofitable. If the rate of credit expansion doesn't increase to keep
up the illusion, prices and interest rates adjust and it becomes obvious that the projects won't pay and a recession or depression gets going when
the economy liquidates these projects. If the rate of credit expansion
accelerates more bad investments are undertaken and the crash will be
worse later. That's what's happening in Asia. Credit expansion has come
to a halt and the chickens are coming home to roost. Notice all the
talk about excess capacity in Asia.

Commodity money ( gold ) restrains credit expansion because the banks have
to redeem their banknotes and checkbook money in gold on customer demand.
If they make too many loans, thus creating too much checkbook money and banknotes, customers will demand gold and the bank will go bust. To
avoid this they restrict credit to only the credit worthy. Fiat money knows no such restraint and that's why any financial syatem based upon it will inevitably fail through either depression or hperinflation.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:19
A.Goose () ID#20136:
Quote.com is not showing any trading on gc8g either.

Can anyone help us out here Is gold trading Steve_Perth acn you help us?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:18
Lurker 777 (Puetz NIKKEI 225 Down - 361.33 and has not moved in 4 minutes ) ID#317247:
Date: Thu Jan 01 1998 13:16
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#222167:
1998 Prediction # 1: The stock markets in Europe and North America will follow the lead of the Asian markets during October 1997 - - they will crash. The timing depends on the amount of new cash flowing into mutual funds early in 1998, and if foreign central banks continue to sell US Treasury Securities. The markets themselves will probably give the answer during the first few days of January.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:16
goldilox (Gold Trading....) ID#24935:
I was expecting that the GOLD market would have opened by now.
At least that's what the KITCO chart implies.

Anyone know why it isn't trading?

Or is it remarkably stable

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:16
A.Goose (And they are getting slammed...) ID#20136:
Sunday January 11, 6:54 pm Eastern Time

Japan Dec 1st 20 days trade surplus up 153.8 pct

TOKYO, Jan 12 ( Reuters ) - Japan's customs- cleared trade surplus rose 153.8 percent to 503.06 billion yen in the first 20 days of December,
compared with a revised surplus of 198.21 billion yen in the same period a year earlier, the Finance Ministry announced on Monday.

Free on board ( FOB ) exports rose 15.4 percent to 3.13 trillion yen from a year earlier, while cost, insurance and freight ( CIF ) imports rose 4.5
percent to 2.63 trillion yen.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980111/japan_dec__1.html

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:12
Aragorn III (Tolerentl, Mike Sheller...) ID#212323:
Thanks for the encouraging words. Mike, in regard to your post to Spock I really must encourage you to view the post by Cmax that I recently made reference to. Paper simply cannot inspire the necessary confidence over the long term to be a viable money. Only when every paper holder can simultaneously be handed the valuable substance backing the paper will their be confidence in paper. The paper itself as money simply will not stand up over time. I beleive that is why bankers charge interest rates for lending, rather than charging a flat fee to cover the cost of the paperwork plus small profit. Clearly, if the applicant presents no risk in regard to repaying the loan, why should the 'premium' be based on the time required for payback? They aren't inhibiting the banks ability to make other loans ( and other 'flat fee based small profits' ) because the money is created out of thin air ( 90% ? ) when the loan is written.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:10
Steve - Perth (Down the All Ord goes!) ID#284177:
Australian All Ordinaries 2544.5 - 58.6 - 2.25%

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:10
Lurker 777 (Japan) ID#317247:
Nikkie - 335

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:07
Steve - Perth (Steve’s specially edited: NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA ) ID#284177:
BREAKING STORIES:

HK Govt rules out Peregrine rescue
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980112/world/world2.html

Delinking HK dollar a different ball game
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980112/world/world3.html

IMF under fire over Asian crisis
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980112/world/world4.html

Nerves tested as bonds break with stocks
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980112/invest/ivsuper.html

IN REVIEW:

Taiwan prepares for yuan's fall by June - - just in case
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980110/world/world3.html

A simple lesson in Economics - The Maverick
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980110/market/markets3.html

US rescue bid as turmoil grows in Indonesia & surrounding countries
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980110/market/markets1.html

Doubts over use of RBA’s TWI in measuring balance of Trade with Asia
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980110/news/news1.html

US- Japan clash threatens financial stability
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980110/world/world2.html

The Cherry Coke kinda guy who made his billions from Omaha
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980110/world/world4.html

Indonesian food panic the worst since 1960’s - IMF, US to rescue Rupiah
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980110/world/world1.html

Over 90% of Indonesian Companies technically bankrupt
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/980109/international/stories/indonesia_2.html

HOW EXOTIC DERIVATIVES TOOK DOWN KOREA'S ECONOMY
http://nypostonline.com/business/2439.htm

Who is going to go next after Asia?
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980110/business/business2.html

The Multilateral Agreement on Investment ( MAI )
http://www.gwb.com.au/gwb/news/onenation/press/maiabc.html

MAHATHIR'S ECONOMIC THUNDERBOLT OUT OF THE BLUE
http://www.gwb.com.au/gwb/news/onenation/mahat.html

China takes firm stand on yuan ( for now )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980109/world/world3.html

Currency crash sweeping Asia
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980108/market/markets4.html

Price rises to hit rich and poor
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980107/pageone/pageone2.html

Ominous signs ignored
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980107/pageone/pageone6.html

Just what is the IMF anyway, and does it get it right?
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980107/world/world2.html

Seoul, Bangkok face $178bn payout - European Banks flushed out?
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980105/world/world1.html

Rubin defends Asian Bailouts
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/980105/business/stories/asia_1.html

Taiwan Dollar under attack
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/taiwan_markets_pictu_1.html

Soros to do Korea over again - softened up for the kill
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980105/korea_soros_picture_1.html

Deflation fears take bonds back to the 60s
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/980106/business/business1.html

GREENSPAN DEFLATION SPEECH: Problems of Price Measurement
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980106/verbatim/verbatim1.html

Getting burned by your Company Share Scheme
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971231/news/news1.html

After 15 years the bulls are looking for a break
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971230/invest/ivsuper.html

Reproducing the 1930’s
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971227/world/world1.html

Japanese Banks not out of the woods
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid= 19971226233505010& top= biz& template= Default.htx& maxfieldsize= 3318

Mid Level Officials lobbying for Chinese Devaluation!
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971219/world/wwashington.html

BOOKMARK Steve’s News Page:
( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/blizard.htm

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:06
Lurker 777 (Japan) ID#317247:
NIKKEI - 256.14

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:04
SDRer__A (Aragorn III, A.Goose--We also must attend) ID#288155:
to the growing ties between the middle and far east.

The 're- opening' of the Silk Road.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:04
A.Goose () ID#20136:
Does any one know if gold has traded yet? What url are you looking at?

Kitco show no change.

Japan has joined in - - lower:

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 7:03PM 14824.68 - 170.42 - 1.14%

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 19:02
223 (Thanks Mike. That gives a general target range.) ID#26669:
I've been long on Pd since shortly after the Pons/Fleichman bubble crashed. Back then $130 was grossly overpriced and $270 was a dream.

BTW, about Sunshine, I just don't know. Sunshine would be really nice if silver bottoms above $US520 and skyrockets as is my hope. It's on my personal hold list, but frankly I've not bought any more of it recently.
Of course, I'd be a lot less cool buying then holding such volatile issues if I turn out to be one of the ones laid off in the next round of job cuts. ;- )

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:58
SCOUT (HighRise (The Great Reckoning)) ID#233298:

Yes! I do have the book The Great Reckoning by James Dale Davidson
and Lord William Rees- Mogg. Excellent book. Lots of suggestions on
how to prepare spiritually,physically, and financially.


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:56
SDRer__A (OOPS!) ID#288155:
( Cut & paste URL and delete any embedded spaces if present )

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:56
A.Goose () ID#20136:
Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:38
Aragorn III ( ANOTHER ...in a nutshell ) ID#212323:

Thanks your post is very solid.

Australia All Ordinaries ^AORD 6:55PM 2547.0 - 56.1 - 2.16
New Zealand NZSE 40 ^NZ40 6:53PM 2228.09 - 41.19 - 1.82%

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:52
SDRer__A (JCW your 18:08, IMF, 'heavy hands') ID#288155:
Financial Monitoring Center:
http://geneva.intl.ch/geneva- intl/gi/egi/egi226.htm

From Activity Summary: “...dimensions and evolutions of systems in
view of their contributions to the common good; to articulate independent
assessments; and to formulate, on the basis of these assessments,
recommendations and proposals of adjustments and developments there
where it is seen necessary

We are witness to wars within wars...

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:49
Mike Sheller (SPOCK) ID#347447:
Maybe in this era of digital numerology and plastic credit cards, paper money IS the REAL MONEY that gold once was ( ;- )

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:49
Crystal Ball (http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets?u) ID#287367:
Above is URL for overseas markets. Copy and paste.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:48
Crystal Ball (http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi) ID#287367:
Above is URL for Globex ( SPH8, currencies overnight )
Just copy and paste.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:46
tolerant1 (Aragorn III) ID#31868:
What you wrote seems plausible to me.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:46
Mike Sheller (Beautifully put) ID#347447:
ARAGORN III: Your discourse on ANOTHER's message was, brilliant, lucid, and a boon to your fellow world citizens. If only this message could be part of the mass culural debate...

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:45
Spock (Bill Buckler, $US and Gold) ID#210114:
Have just read Bill Buckler's pages. His comments were interesting. He stated that everyone was going to $US not gold. This means one of two things.

1. Gold is truly dead as a monetary medium. Traditionally this is the time that gold should do well.

2. This is a temporary phenomenon. When the $US experiences difficulty, people will go back to gold. ( At least to some point )

As I have said in previous posts, I think the jury is out on gold as a monetary asset. We will have to watch for the next 18 months to see what happens.

I'm inclined to think that the world will look upon gold as a 'barbarous relic'. But who knows.

Your objective and respectful thoughts would be appreciated.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:41
Mike Sheller (Playing the Palladium) ID#347447:
223: I just looked at the montly Palladium Chart for some kind of overview to your question. My rough guess is that on the upside there's room for at least 270- 285 by, say, late '99. That implies a deceleration of this bull, even though a continuance. This also sets up an interesting situation where 2 primarily industrially traded PM's are in a bull ( Silver & Palladium ) . Makes a bit of a case for specific gold manipulation. Good luck if you're long.Sunshine on your shoulder, Mate!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:38
Aragorn III (ANOTHER ...in a nutshell) ID#212323:
Allow me to be so bold as to paraphrase ( in not so cryptic terms ) the perception I have of the reality ANOTHER is ( perhaps? ) trying to convey to anyone who will listen and ponder.

The continuing success of fiat currency as money depends on the continuing confidence ( read ignorance or delusion ) of the masses. Because every major world government participates in this scheme they either sink or swim TOGETHER...hence the IMF lifeguard; noone shall be allowed to drown- - however too many swimmers floundering around can be a real challange.

The arab nations have existed figuratively since time began, and therefor they have a different perspective than a relative upstart United States. And many countries sit at the table with the USA playing games of poker for matchsticks, beleiving in time that matchsticks make the world go 'round. An arab nation has no interest in matchsticks, but does nothing to interrupt the game as long as its true interests are met.

The arab nations know better than to squander its national treasure ( oil ) in return for matchsticks ( dollars ) . But the 'game' would not be interruped because these same matchsticks could immediately buy an amount of gold that was deemed a fair exchange for the oil. Actual prices mean nothing so long as the cash price for oil could buy the desired quantity of gold. For a time, much of this gold was represented by paper ( gold backed dollar or COMEX- type certificates ) but this is about to change.

See Cmax's EXCELLENT post saturday, Jan. 10, @ 23:13. Price means nothing when it is the physical gold you want or have been promised in past. Paper promises will no longer suffice.

This is significant because this line of thinking will be acted on at a national level by a player important enough to change the paradigm. A handfull of citizens squawking for abandonment of fiat currencies for a return to real money is easily dismissed by world governments that know how much is at stake with their matchstick winnings at the card table. But imagine how rapidly the 'handful' will expand to include the entire population when the dollar is revealed for what it is by the sentiment and action of the middle- east. It won't take long for the average citizen to ponder why the middle- east will no longer accept dollars as payment for oil...those with gold will not exchange it for paper. Oil will seek gold directly.

It is meaningless to talk about skyrocketing prices in terms of dollars. Dollars will burn. Necessities will be exchanged as they are today, but they will be priced in gold. This is not troublesome. Gold will be revalued ( in the conventional way of thinking with prices in terms of dollars ) such that the existing gold will represent the equivalent purchasing power of all existing paper money.

This is how it should be! But with the coming transition and exchange of paper wealth for its equivalent share of the world's gold, you are advised that today's exchange rate is far more favorable than tomorrow's.

Why does ANOTHER feel compelled to post? Compassion for his fellow man, and who better to reach out to than those who already know the reason for accepting only gold as payment, not paper promises.

The sentiment of the masses changing is what will drive out the fiat currencies. SE Asians now know the truth; the cat is out of the bag on a grand scale, and this concerns the arab nations in regard for their past complaisance for paper promises of gold and its future delivery.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:29
vronsky (http://www.gold-eagle.com/greenspan011098.html) ID#427357:

ALAN GREENSPAN: Can a leopard change his spots...?

In 1981 Alan Greenspan “spilled his guts,” “poured his heart out,” “gave us the straight- skinny,” “let it all hang out” ABOUT WHAT HE REALLY THINKS ABOUT THE GOLD STANDARD. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY, he spoke in everyday common, clear language... he obviously wanted EVERYONE TO GRASP HIS THOUGHT, to comprehend, indeed to understand the essence of the GOLD STANDARD... its benefit and its control of THE IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE OF POLITICIANS. Is this the “echo” of the future?

To read Greenspan's essay on the GOLD STANDARD, copy & paste the URL to your Internet call- up window ( Location ) . Then CLOSE the space just before the word eagle - then ENTER. Apparently, the new Kitco format corrupts the URL by adding a space.



Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:22
223 (Where is palladium going?) ID#26669:
What is the natural endpoint of the palladium bull? Parity with gold? Or higher? What would be a time to get out of a long term physical palladium position Its broken $US214 and going up even as I write this.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:08
jcw (An International Meltdown Protection Team) ID#253389:
Does anybody else see a very heavy hand in this?

TOKYO ( Nikkei ) - The International Monetary Fund and central banks of developed countries have begun to monitor loan rollovers to South Korea by major private banks.

This is a highly unusual step, aimed at preventing the debt- laden country from falling into default.

The central banks of 11 nations, including Japan, the U.S., the U.K. and Switzerland, will receive reports on rollovers by their private banks through the IMF.

The central banks will question their lenders if they do not refinance 100% of their loans to South Korea. The central banks have been asked to report these reasons during daily telephone conferences.

Just before an international agreement at the end of last year to salvage South Korea, the percentage of loan rollovers by major banks stood at about 20% , as some banks, including European ones, refused to refinance loans.

The Bank of Japan will monitor more than 10 Japanese city and long- term credit banks with exposure to Korean borrowers.

South Korea held foreign debts worth $156.9 billion at the end of November, $92.2 billion of which were short- term loans. The IMF and developed nations have set up a $57 billion bailout package for the financially stricken country.


REMARKABLE STEPS FOR REMARKABLE TIMES!




Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:06
A.Goose (And they are off and running...) ID#20136:
Australia All Ordinaries ^AORD 6:05PM 2584.4 - 18.7 - 0.72%
New Zealand NZSE 40 ^NZ40 6:03PM 2230.02 - 39.27 - 1.73%

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:05
Barb Hughes (@Flash) ID#20783:
MTB ( Manfra, Tordella & Brookes, INC ) charts are different
than you are quoting. What's your reference? curious....

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 18:00
kiwi (Stocks Crash '29 Style This Week) ID#194311:
- 222 hanging on the screens all weekend, all over the papers, all across the telly.....Monday big down day...Tuesday slight recovery...tehn lookout out for BIG Wednesday, waxing up those golden surfboards.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 17:48
A.Goose () ID#20136:
Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:48
Selby ( ) ID#287207:
SDRer: Your URL doesn't seem to work

- are adding a space in front of themselves for some reason. So when and if a url posted by someone isn't working immediately look to see if there is an offending - . SDRer is having that problem.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/asia- pacific/newsid_46000/46513.stm


In fact a- a inserts a space.

Hope this helps.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 17:47
Flash (grant@13:20 bullion composition) ID#301318:
forgot:

1 troy ounce American Eagle measures 32.7 millimeters in diameter and weighs 33.931 grams, .917 gold with a fine gold content of 22 karats.

91.67% gold
5.33% copper
3.00% silver

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 17:47
Silverbaron (Gold envelope chart) ID#288295:

Here's an update of the gold envelope chart; appears that gold may drop to about $273 before meeting the outer envelope, which is turning up.

http://www.intersurf.com/~vor/gold.html

P.S. ANOTHER and fellow Kitcoites now doing PRIME TIME at Colin Seymour's financial pages.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 17:41
CJS1__A (Gold and PMs stockpile facility in UAE) ID#329157:
On the eleventh of July, 1996, HH Sheikh Hazaa Bin Zayed Al- Nahyan announced the approval of plans for the establishment of a three billion dollar Abu Dhabi Free Zone to include facilities for warehousing, precious metals and food, the first of its kind in the Arab
Gulf. Saadiyat, an island of about 35 square kilometers, located seven kilometers south of Abu Dhabi city, will be the Free Zone site, and will have the capacity to store sixty seven basic commodities such as oil, grain, diamonds, copper, gold etc...

Plans for its completion in three to four years have already started with the issuing of a law forming the Zone’s board...

Dubai's gold imports reached 350.5 tonnes in 1996. The city ranks as the
world's second largest gold redistributor just behind Singapore.

He who has no past, has no present or future...
- His Highness Sheikh Zayed Bin Sultan Al Nahyan

UAE:
President: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al- Nahayan
Prime Minister: Sheikh Maktoum bin Rashid al- Maktoum
Independence: December 2, 1971 ( from United Kingdom )

URLs
http://www.ecssr.ac.ae/00uae.2industry.html
http://www.dctpb.gov.ae/dctpb/news/Dubai- Update- Jan- 97.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/uae.html
( Cut & paste URL and delete any embedded spaces if present )

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 17:40
Flash (grant@13:20: bullion composision) ID#301318:

1 troy ounce Gold Maple Leaf measures 30.0 millimeters in diameter, 2.8 millimeters in thickness and weighs 31.150 grams, .9999 gold.

1 troy ounce Philharmonic measures 37.0 millimeters in diameter, 2.0 millimeters in thickness and weighs 31.103 grams, .9999 gold with a fine gold content of 24 karats.

1 troy ounce Australian Kangaroo weighs 31.104 grams, .999 gold.

1 troy ounce Chinese Panda weighs 31.104 grams, .999 gold.

1 troy ounce Britannia weighs 34.050 grams, .917 gold with a fine gold content of 22 karats.

1 troy ounce Krugerrand measures 32.6 millimeters in diameter and weighs 33.931 grams, .917 gold with a fine gold content of 22 karats.

1 troy ounce Credit Suisse is .999 gold.

1 troy ounce Johnson Matthey is .999 gold.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 17:31
Mike Sheller (A rather intolerant tolerant these days) ID#347447:
...not that I mind. TOLERANT: We peasants shall have ample cause, and opportunity, for rebellion in the years to come. Gird thy loins and Gild thy coffers. Doubletime around the drillfield every morning too. I wanna be an Airborne Ranger, I wanna live a life of danger... ( I think it's time for dinner now... )

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 17:23
tolerant1 (Poorboys) ID#31868:
The problem is in Washington. We need to start there. They are the scum that is backing the IMF and allowing the other theives access to our wallets.

We should force the use of gold as money on Washington.It is in the Constitution. The Government can demand nothing of We the People. We the People on the other hand can demand what we want from them.

People have forgotten that. If we are going to lead the world, then let us lead, not the crap- heads in Washington.

The President and his Executive orders, which I believe to be un- constitutional can kiss my We the People ass.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 17:18
Mike Sheller (To the Many from the few) ID#347447:
AURIC: Big Thoughts indeed. I can just imagine where you would place those 2 gold coins on the Wet T shirt you have in mind.

POORBOYS: You didn't know me in '96 when the Astrological Investor was telling the peasants gold was going down ( Uranus Square NYSE Venus ) down, down, into Fall/Winter of '97. If this is the bottom, baby, I called it a year and a half away. As for your paranoia, I understand perfectly. My real name is obproj, but I took the handle Mike Sheller so no one could hassle me.

STRADMASTER: I have been sniped at by the best. The VC came within inches. My vote is to Bernatz. God, how I mees heem.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 17:16
Miro (Aragorn III) ID#347457:
Aragorn, unfortunately, these idiots may make money now by selling gold, and will buy it back when the price goes down some more. Don't take me wrong - I am in your camp, but that is the reality of today's market. You may say that there won’t be any gold to buy, however, if we all keep loosing money we may not have any left to buy gold even if it was available.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 17:14
tolerant1 (ahhhhh Karlito's liver a savory morsel,) ID#31868:
lightly breaded and served with some Marmite on toast, topped off with some Coleman's powdered Mustard properly mixed for taste. Delicious.

Doctor L., please pass the Chianti.



Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 17:12
Strad Master (The Gold Standard and technology.) ID#250297:
LGB: You always write about how the world is so much better for not having a gold standard. No one ever challenges your assertion about that. ( Leave it to me to stick my neck out and try, eh? ) While I'm certainly no expert in the matter, it seems to me that the currency debacle in Indonesia that is spreading throughout Asia and perhaps the world is a decidedly worse alternative when viewed in the long run. As we can see, eventually when there is nothing to back a currency it implodes. This has always been the case throughout history. Now REAL problems begin. People who have grown accustomed to the easier life that fiat currency affords them and have consequently grown weak and complacent are suddenly thrust into abject poverty. Is that better? Would it not be wiser for humanity to move forward more slowly, accumulating and distributing well- being that is based on a real asset like gold that ( wheat, pukka shells, etc. - take your pick ) that has a tangible and substantive existence. Time, energy, and money are all manifestations of the same thing. Fiat currency distorts that balance and throws the whole system out of whack. True, it can be out of whack for a long, long time but when it implodes the force of the implosion is devastating. Furthermore, do you honestly believe that the US, with all its resources in creative, imaginative, and technical skill would NOT have developed the technological wonders that we've all grown accustomed to had we remained on the gold standard? Do you mean to tell me that the internet, for instance, would not have been developed without inflated fiat currency? I find that impossible to believe. I just visited the magnificent new Getty Art Museum here in LA. ( Shows just what a billion dolalrs in the right hands will buy. ) Getty accumulated his wealth through technology - digging for and tapping oil - all done during a time when the gold standard was in effect and the US was the biggest creditor nation in the world. Do you believe that Bill Gates could not have made his billions without the help of fiat currency? Unfortunately, now the problem is that when the fiat currency of the US collapses ( and good people can differ as to when that might be ) he ( or someone like him ) and all those he employs will be very unhappy people. Maybe I'm wrong. Tell me how.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 17:10
HighRise (SCOUT (The Great Reckoning)) ID#401460:
Scout: Do you have the book The Great Reckoning? - if not you should get it.

Just catching up on the posts.
Later,

HighRise

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 17:03
STUDIO.R (@ cherokazzee....) ID#93232:
I am listening to my nose...the westerly wind carries a strange pungent smell...a sickening sweet smell...an olfaction of subtraction...the great and grim reaper has come...he has fire as his friend.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 17:00
Aragorn III (Single best reason to buy gold...they're sellin' it) ID#212323:
Your fair share is only 2/3 ( two thirds ) troy oz.! Somebody please check my math ( and spelling ) .
If all of the above ground gold were to be gathered up and then evenly distributed among every living man, woman and child...that's all you'd get. Period. Would you like more? I know some on this site ( e.g. Karlito99, et al ) would be quick to give theirs away and short sell it
also. But for the rational ones, consider this question- - At what price
do you think you would be successful in trading paper currency to
someone else to relinquish their share? Consider this also...If all of
the world's fiat ( confidence ) currencies were to be evenly
distributed, what would be your resulting fair share? A nice pile of assorted green, red, blue, and yellow portraits of deceased presidents, with more being printed daily.

Given that, if I were to work up a sweat all week doing hard labor and
then asked for my preference of payment- - either US$280 or ONE ounce
gold, I would not hesitate to take the gold. But I would probably wonder
how my employer came about his gold supply and why he regards it so
cheaply!
Do you regard yourself among the world's affluent, or at LEAST above
average? What is your measuring stick? Do you own a larger physical supply of gold that represents your wealth in relation to your average person?
Those with an eye for value will not waste time and lose sleep in a
futile attempt at bottom fishing. Get peace of mind...get gold.
Be greatful that the US dollar is so strong at the moment. Waiting for
gold to fall further in price is to expect the dollar to get
significantly stronger. As paper globally is experiencing falling
confidence, how will the American patterns of ink avoid the same
reality- check?

The ONLY paper that governments should be printing are election ballots!

People of the world can come to terms on matters of exchange independant
of government issued 'money'. Sure, I'll mow your lawn...for a gram of gold or a six- pack of beer- - whatever you got. or, I'll design the foundation of your new building for 200 ounces gold.

Just think about it...governments involved in the business of printing ( creating- - via banks ) money! What a farce!
I want my fair share...times 1,000! And God bless 'em, some idiots are
actually selling...!!!!!!!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 17:00
Miro (Posting and accessing URL on Kitco) ID#347457:
Folks, if URL is split over two lines in your posts, just clicking on it will usually fail. When you paste URL, try to hit return key before you do your paste so it start at the beginning of the line. URL still may be split due to special characters in it ( e.g., - ) , when your browser formatting of the post tries to do you favor by trying to improve readability and split some character strings over two lines.
You can still access that URL by pasting all parts into URL location
window on you browser.


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:57
Poorboys (2br02b@YES@Right@On@@You@Said@It) ID#224149:
Indonesia- Let's not forget the secret Clinton payoffs and the Monk secret investments with the Suharto family and the poor baby never found Gold.The blood is everywhere Suharto puts his hands but that is typical for all Dictators. Kill Suharto- - - - - - Where is Tolerent when you need him please add to your kill list.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:50
tolerant1 (TED - CHEROKEE_A) ID#31868:
See, I told ya the Steelers would wear em out. Okay, would you believe

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:49
Auric (BIG Thoughts ) ID#255151:

Mike Sheller- - Good idea, KPY. Too many for me to single out one, but Donald, the lean, mean info machine is up there. I think we should also have the Kitco Turkey Poster of the Year. Some nominations- - Moneybags, Gloomy Gus, and Joe Granville. aurator- - ANOTHER idea for the wet T- shirt... Get your hands on some Gold. NFC update- - Green Bay 10 SF 0. ( where is Golden Cheesehead? )

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:48
Selby () ID#287207:
SDRer: Your URL doesn't seem to work

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:48
SDRer__A (Try this instead--same photo) ID#288155:
if your interested in article, you can click ahead...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:44
SDRer__A (Look What The Thais are Turning In Now....) ID#288155:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/asia- pacific/newsid_46000/46513.stm

Will this/has this photo- story print in US papers?
So it begins...

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:38
larryn__A (Eaglewing gold fund page) ID#32078:
The Eaglewing Gold Fund page has collated web information on gold mutual funds and just updated data. Over half of the funds lost over 10% last week. http://www.eaglewing.com


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:34
cherokee__A (@-------who-tells-it-like-it-will-be----------asia-going-down-in-flames-tonight---) ID#344308:

gee whiz- - - - - - denver in the superbowl........

who would'a guessed

better listen to your eyes....they are talking.....




Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:30
STUDIO.R (@The Charge Of the Kitco Posse.....) ID#93232:
Get Camdessus!...Lynch Merrill and all stock brokers! Sack Goldman and all investment bankers! Bring the Liars to the Golden Sword of Justice!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:30
John Disney__A (One absolute and Im off to bed) ID#24140:

for Oris

You have a top sense of humour, good night

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:30
SDRer__A (Sharefin/JTF--this may be of interest to you (from Sante Fe Institute) ) ID#288155:

Statistical Measures of Complexity for Strongly Interacting Systems
Ricard V. Sole, Claudia Blanc, and Bartolo Luque

http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/Abstracts/97- 11- 083abs.html

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:28
panda (Bags and cats and stuff) ID#30116:
O.K. Now that we have another post from Another, will gold nose dive tomorrow? That seems to have been the pattern in the past.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:27
Strad Master (Kitco Poster of the Year!) ID#250297:
My vote goes to Mike Sheller for Kitco Poster of the Year. From his postings he is obviously a man of personal refinement and immense charm. He endures the slings and arrows from the snipers at the bottom of the hill with unparalled equanimity. He is a man of principle who is not afraid to place his beliefs on view and to defend them with poise and humor. He is unafraid to speak of God in a time when some look upon a belief in God as a mark of foolishness. All the while, his market commentaries incorporate a strong grasp of technical and fundamental factors. That, mixed together with his fascinating astrological insights ( which some might dispute, but which he GIVES away - so, at worst, no harm is done ) makes him the most entertaining and well- rounded poster on Kitco. A Pewter Krugeraand with Tin Maple Leaf clusters to you!

Close runner- up: I nominate Professor Vronsky, for his many insightful posts as well as for his dogged determination to make Gold Eagle a mine of fascinating information. He, too, is a true gentleman, which in my book goes a long, long way.

Secondary prize to Bernatz de Ventadorm - who's posts I miss terribly and whose comments about the leetle Chelsea keed remain for me the funniest postings to date.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:26
Flash (newtron@10:27 Thai Baht devaluation cause) ID#301318:

An easy read:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/special_report/1997/asian_economic_woes/newsid_34000/34487.stm

( if url errors, verify no spaces )

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:23
oris (Dave in CO.) ID#238422:
Sorry, dome is some, of course...

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:22
oris (@Dave in Co) ID#238422:
Dave, thanks.

We do need dome opposition to keep brain sharp, so
I would leave PCL for further consideration, lools like
he is just human and we may need him for healthy debate.

In regard to PCK - Pussy Communist Karlito - I accept
your idea with joy...

By the way, Tolerant gets his liver, I will eat his tongue,
what is your pick for a meal? Would not recommend to go
below PCK's waist, however...


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:22
Poorboys (Ted@Mike@Sheller) ID#224149:
Ted- Woke up and You took the words right out of my mouthMeatloaf Another $@ ) ) *^!$ oops.I nominate you for poster of the year you being veggie and all showing your house on Kitco with Gold bars hidden in the attic that takes guts so I say one handle one prize.Mike now I certainly will not be sending e- mail to anybody when one is all I got.Parnoid maybe ? Yes with so many posters with different handles yet the same ( Hey Bart so much for e mail registration you can get them anywhere ) brainprint, it is wise to be cautious .Regarding my post don't take it personal but as the Astrologer you claim to be any study should show you Gold has only one direction as Silver Down Down Down. Let's get serious ( olvia Newton John ) great song and dance. Gold down over 140 in the last year or so.I would recheck those charts especially with Neptune's arrival in Aquarius and the Saturn arrival in Taurus this 22 year cycle still has life .That great bird of prey is the Eagle. Away to find the melting silverware.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:20
IDT (DJ's currency composite chart) ID#228128:
Remember DJ's chart in which he created a composite of currencies weighted by the amounts of gold they consume? I ran some correlation analysis on these data from 1/2/96 to 12/31/97. My original intent was to do a residual analysis on the data to see if more could be learned ( in other words, look for things other than the currency value that might also explain gold price ) . I ran into a snag. There are no residuals to speak of . The correlations are almost perfect. The correlation coeficients are as follows: Date vs Gold - .97 n= 496, Date vs Currency Composit - .95 n= 506, and Gold vs Currency Composite .97 n= 487.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:19
Chrisophilos (A call to arms.... It's now or never.) ID#277302:
I hear that Barrick boss Peter Munk is planning to chastise the central bankers for their stupidity in pre- announcing gold sales and driving down the price of gold. I think that the gold producers deserve a gold medal for stupidity as well. It is well known in the gold circles that a number of large producers are set to monitize their hedges at U.S. $260/oz. The short- sellers know this too and it gives them added confidence to short gold down to that level and will cover and take handsome profits all the way down... profits that they will use to short gold again as it tries to recover.

The best move these producers could make is to act now in order to catch the largest number of shorts with their pants down and burn their asses to high heaven, make them think long and hard about shorting gold again. If they act now to incite a massive panic- stricken short- covering rally, they will in effect accomplish the proverbial killing of two birds with one stone. They will not only break the backs of the shorts but at the same time they will inflict massive pain on their accomplices- the lenders as a lot of shorts will inevitably default on their loans.

Once this fire is lit, short- covering will supply the fuel and all the producers will have to do is to periodically stoke the fire ( by buing gold on the spot market as the price increase stalls ) to keep the flame burning larger and brighter.

The situation with gold during the past year or so has developed into a war of survival... the survival of the gold industry world- wide. The best offensive strategy in war has always been the element of surprise. If the gold industry is to survive they must collectively act now...it's now or never.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:13
Puetz (bpuetz@holli.com) ID#222167:
The big surprise so far in the infancy of 1998: The huge
inflows into equity mutual- funds has not materialized ( for
the 1st 4 trading days ) . In fact, there were probably
outflows on Thursday and Friday.

Also, speculators haven't been supporting the market in the
early days of 1998 ( as measured by derivative open- interest ) .
That's probably because these speculators loaded up on their
leveraged and bullish bets during the last months on 1997 - -
so they could sell to unsuspecting mutual- fund investors in
early 1998. The only problem is: the mutual- fund investors
never showed up at the party. Now speculators are left
holding the bag with billions of dollars of leveraged bets
in a declining market.

Let the margin calls begin on the full- moon tomorrow!
The next question for speculators: Sell, to whom?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:11
Mike Sheller (JTF) ID#347447:
JTF: re your 14:57: Only a physicist, huh?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:05
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
BBL

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:04
Dave in CO (@Oris) ID#215211:
Really appreciate your sense of humor and the perspectives that you and Miro bring here.

I knew you knew what P.C. means and it doesn't mean politically correct. I suggest that we all refer to those entities that disrupt this site as PCK and PCL. Since almost all of the posts here unfortunately deal with PCK and PCL instead of PM's, we can save Bart a significant amount of disk space.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:03
Miro (@Oris and Pussy Communists) ID#347457:
Oris, you summed it pretty well. No, I was not deported, though after I left, I was ( in my absence ) sentenced by communist regime to server two years in jail for emigrating and leaving that wonderful regime behind. The verdict was annulled after the fall of communism and after 15 years I was able to see my family and friends I left behind.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:01
Mike Sheller (Way to go Bro, ROB & GSTD) ID#347447:
2BRO: Jim Grant is one of my favorites. I am honored to have my quote juxtaposed with his.

ROB: Gold Standard ( the stock, not the dream ) hasn't gotten started yet. Pluto is right on top of its Neptune /Sun conjunction as we speak, and as it pulls by into February/March, the main liftoff should emerge. If there is any credence to a gold bottom here and an imminent rally in bullion of decent proportions, GSTD is at least a triple before the year is out. If the gold price continues to flounder, there is still the potential for a GSTD double from these levels. This in my humble technical opinion. BTW: As filed 3/28/97, Loews ( CNA Financial ) acquired 13% of GSTD - ( ( SEC 13G ) ) I usually don't like to look too long at the funnymentals, but it's nice to know there are some strong hands in this little bugger. The company has mucho property claims in Uruguay & Brazil, and you know ME and gold and silver properties!!!

It's like the planet is your safe deposit box. Ainama! Viva Oro!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:56
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
veg - - You said it yourself; trading. That means not 'sitting'. As for imagining 340, I'm sure many imagine that and some imagine more. Some imagine less than 250. Who the h__l knows? Much of what you ask depends on the type of intended investment/speculation; Physical might be one thing and options/futures another. Short- term trades vs. longer- term trades? You've got to clarify your intent. But don't ask if 340 in May is viable 'cause it is probably as viable at 250 or 550. Personally, I think there are still scenarios that must be played out before a trend change can/will occur. When? 'sooner or later' is all I'll speculate.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:54
oris (@Miro) ID#238422:
Miro, Karlito99 is playing games with us.

More than that, Karlito99 does not have respect to us.

When I see this kind of stuff, I cann't apply

rules of normal conversation, I am getting angry.

Karlito said earlier that ...call me any names you want..

Fine!!! I am going for it, I got Karlito's permission!


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:53
Emerald Heights (LGB2_A: Homme d'esprit....Thank you for reply. As I expected well reasoned and wise post. ) ID#227311:
Will make some decision in coming week..Agree with your U.S. market assessment. As always impressed with your posts especially the Sun 03:55. It's rare to find Wit and fact on the same page. H.L.Mencken was a master at it. On the subject of Gold & Gambling have you read R.A.Epstine? I found it interesting but a bit difficult to follow. Most of John Scarne's books on subject good also. Some times I think this whole Gold Vs.market is akin to playing craps...You put up your $ and take your chance. I will be in LV next week...Wonder if they will let me bet one of my Maples?
Remember.....Fortuna Favet Fortibus. Regards:EH

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:47
Mike Sheller (Speachless) ID#347447:
RJ: Your eloquent tribute to EB had me rolling. You have him. As for me, as one who is indeed accustomed to lofty heights ( but can only dream of fixing ropes to virgins ) I thank you most humbly for your kind and beautiful sentiments. You've made a friend for life, man!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:46
Ted (Puetz.....and then a Denver----------) ID#364147:
VICTORY in the 'Stupor Bowl'~~~~~~~~away to the recliner.....

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:44
Ted (Tolerant1 .................and ROR) ID#364147:
Tolerant1: nother good call ( Steelers ) - - grin thingy,,,,ROR: They don't allow 'outsiders' in the 'group' ( sorry ) - - - Let's go Niners- - do a # on the Pak!!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:43
Puetz (bpuetz@holli.com) ID#222167:
Ted: I'm with you. I'm rooting for a Denver vs. S.F. matchup.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:41
Puetz (bpuetz@holli.com) ID#222167:
Only 3 more hours before the carnage begins is Asia.
Stay tuned to Kitco for the details.
The great stock market crash of 1998 is set to begin!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:40
James (Friedberg posting) ID#252150:
This was the 1st time that I attempted to cut & paste something.

I oviously did something wrong because of multiple copies. Can someone advise me?

I think Friedberg's analysis is extremely important. He has an incredible record & is one of the most highly regarded currency analysts extant.

If he's right our payoff in au may be delayed for quite some time.

I am appalled when I think of all the misery Cammedus & his minions are causing for all the hard working innocent people in Asia. The SOB should be tried as a war criminal. They may not be dropping bombs, but the devastion over there will cause millions of people to be reduced to a subsistence level of survival.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:39
Puetz (bpuetz@holli.com) ID#222167:
Super Bowl Indicator: The stock market is predicting a Denver
victory in Super Bowl XXXII!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:36
oris (@Dave in Co.) ID#238422:
Dave, of course I know what Pussy Communist means.
I just wanted you to fall from the chair laughing...

No, I was not deported to the U.S., technically speaking.
At the same time, I was deported by the Communists
by their way of making me ( and many other people ) feel
very bad just about everything in the society they controlled...
There were also some personal reasons, including a simple
desire for more political and economic freedom for myself.

Miro can certainly understand what I mean, he had the
same experience in Prague of 70's.

We both left a whole bunch of nice people behind us, and
I bet we both miss them, but we do not miss the system
we run from...

Miro ( may be Miroslav ) , I am sorry for using you as a
reference without your permision and I apologize sincerely
if you don't like it...





Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:34
Ted (Broncos AFC---------) ID#364147:
CHAMPIONS~~~~~~~~~~Go 'Niners'!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:26
2BR02B? (@squirrel your nuts) ID#263153:
OLD GOLD ( Suharto ) ID#238295:
Indonesia's Suharto is one of this century's most blood stained tyrants having slaughtered several MILLION people during his 20 year rule. But that is no problem as long as he pays his debts on time. But when the debts can no longer be paid, then the sh..t hits the fan.

This says something very profound about the values of modern international capitalism.

___________________________________________________________________

Looked around one day and found only my dog remaining with
a sense of shame.

Outta here.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:23
James (Albert Friedberg--highly regarded currency analyst) ID#252150:

Saturday, January 10, 1998

By Terence Corcoran

INTERNATIONAL Monetary Fund chief Michel Camdessus flies to Indonesia early next week, where presumably he will explain to the panicky people of that country - - indeed, the people of all Asia - - why they are being forced by the IMF to bear the burden of a financial collapse that is not their doing. The major cause of public unease in Indonesia is the IMF- orchestrated devaluation of the rupiah, now 60 per cent since November. The devaluation, in turn, is the product of a collapsed credit bubble that fed a vast network of corporate interests associated with the Suharto dictatorship.

It is these networks, and the banks that supported them, that were major beneficiaries of the decade- long boom in Indonesia. But it is the people of Indonesia who are being forced by the IMF to pay the cost, a process Canadian currency specialist Albert Friedberg calls socializing the losses. The same distribution of losses among all taxpayers is taking place in South Korea and the other Asian countries where the IMF, backed by the United States, is moving in with programs that can only exacerbate the Asian economic crisis.

Mr. Friedberg heads Friedberg Mercantile Group of Toronto and writes unconventional commentaries on currencies that appear in the company's monthly newsletter. From Mr. Friedberg's free- market perspective, grounded in Austrian School economic theory, the Asian crisis has its origins in overexpansion of credit by the U.S. Federal Reserve that will, in time, come back to haunt the U.S. economy.

How are losses being socialized?

In the end, the IMF is pushing these countries to socialize the losses, where the losses to be taken are really the losses of 30 corporations, Mr. Friedberg said in an interview yesterday. Suddenly, now the whole country is going to be shouldering those losses. Aside from a few things that the IMF did that are good - - things like opening up markets, supporting deregulation and transparency - - the rest of what they're doing is incorrect. They're pushing the countries into a tremendous contraction. In Korea, the government was not running a big deficit. It was the private sector that had all the debt. Now the IMF is coming in and saying the government is going to have to guarantee the debt of the private companies in order to obtain more financing. In effect, the taxpayers of Korea will be paying now for losses on bad investments made by Citibank and Chase. The intelligent thing to have done would be to say to the banks: 'You lent the money to these Korean private companies. If they can't pay, they can't pay. They declare bankruptcy, you lose money.'

Would Asian currencies be stronger without the IMF plan?

If the IMF had let the companies declare bankruptcy and let Chase and Citibank worry about that, then the currencies would not have gone down as much as they have - - by far. The reason you have a sense of panic is because there's a feeling that you have to cover the value of that foreign debt, even if you're broke. These companies are broke. Why are they buying dollars to pay back debt? You would have had much less pressure on the foreign exchange market than you have at the moment. The pressure is to buy back the dollars, and so everybody's panicking. So the Indonesia rupiah yesterday went below 11,000 rupiah to the U.S. dollar, which is a decline of 50 per cent in three days.

How did the Federal Reserve cause this?

The U.S. central bank restarted the credit expansion process ( in early 1990s ) all too successfully. They got a huge increase in consumer credit, they aided an enormous increase in speculation in credit markets and securities markets. And they exported credit abroad, with U.S. banks becoming big lenders of money to all kinds of emerging countries, and investors became convinced the growth rate in these countries was much better than it was in the United States. Unfortunately, this credit expansion did not create inflation - - I say unfortunately, because price inflation might have stopped the credit expansion in its tracks.

But if there's no price inflation, why worry?

Here's where we have to separate the definitions of inflation. Inflation is not just a rise in prices. It's a state of affairs that says credit is too easy. Easy credit will inevitably lead to rising prices, but over a longer period of time. But easy credit surely leads to a process of excess credit creation where people borrow money to go into all kinds of speculative ventures. These credit cycles are really the causes of trade depressions. So you're right - - there's no price inflation, and some people are even worried about price deflation. We don't believe that's possible with the rate of monetary expansion we have now. But what we could get - - and this is the real danger - - is debt deflation.

What's the effect of debt deflation?

If the central bank stopped injecting credit, you get a situation where creditors start to demand repayment from debtors who can't pay. Debt deflation can cause a depression.

So what's next?

The crisis will widen. It will travel from Asia to Russia, Greece, Brazil. Eventually it will come back to the United States. It will not be a repeat of the 1970s, because the monetary expansion isn't as great. But the liquidity is in the system and we believe the United States is going to go into a very large trade deficit in the next few years. Then the U.S. dollar will come under pressure and you will start getting price inflation. The whole world is resting on the United States' shoulders right now, because the U.S. economy is still strong, and everybody needs the United States to be strong because everybody else is going to try to export their way out of their problems.

[ News ] [ Sports ] [ The Arts ] [ Commentary ] [ Report on Business ]

Back to the top of the page

We welcome your comments.

Copyright © 1998, The Globe and Mail Company

Saturday, January 10, 1998

By Terence Corcoran

INTERNATIONAL Monetary Fund chief Michel Camdessus flies to Indonesia early next week, where presumably he will explain to the panicky people of that country - - indeed, the people of all Asia - - why they are being forced by the IMF to bear the burden of a financial collapse that is not their doing. The major cause of public unease in Indonesia is the IMF- orchestrated devaluation of the rupiah, now 60 per cent since November. The devaluation, in turn, is the product of a collapsed credit bubble that fed a vast network of corporate interests associated with the Suharto dictatorship.

It is these networks, and the banks that supported them, that were major beneficiaries of the decade- long boom in Indonesia. But it is the people of Indonesia who are being forced by the IMF to pay the cost, a process Canadian currency specialist Albert Friedberg calls socializing the losses. The same distribution of losses among all taxpayers is taking place in South Korea and the other Asian countries where the IMF, backed by the United States, is moving in with programs that can only exacerbate the Asian economic crisis.

Mr. Friedberg heads Friedberg Mercantile Group of Toronto and writes unconventional commentaries on currencies that appear in the company's monthly newsletter. From Mr. Friedberg's free- market perspective, grounded in Austrian School economic theory, the Asian crisis has its origins in overexpansion of credit by the U.S. Federal Reserve that will, in time, come back to haunt the U.S. economy.

How are losses being socialized?

In the end, the IMF is pushing these countries to socialize the losses, where the losses to be taken are really the losses of 30 corporations, Mr. Friedberg said in an interview yesterday. Suddenly, now the whole country is going to be shouldering those losses. Aside from a few things that the IMF did that are good - - things like opening up markets, supporting deregulation and transparency - - the rest of what they're doing is incorrect. They're pushing the countries into a tremendous contraction. In Korea, the government was not running a big deficit. It was the private sector that had all the debt. Now the IMF is coming in and saying the government is going to have to guarantee the debt of the private companies in order to obtain more financing. In effect, the taxpayers of Korea will be paying now for losses on bad investments made by Citibank and Chase. The intelligent thing to have done would be to say to the banks: 'You lent the money to these Korean private companies. If they can't pay, they can't pay. They declare bankruptcy, you lose money.'

Would Asian currencies be stronger without the IMF plan?

If the IMF had let the companies declare bankruptcy and let Chase and Citibank worry about that, then the currencies would not have gone down as much as they have - - by far. The reason you have a sense of panic is because there's a feeling that you have to cover the value of that foreign debt, even if you're broke. These companies are broke. Why are they buying dollars to pay back debt? You would have had much less pressure on the foreign exchange market than you have at the moment. The pressure is to buy back the dollars, and so everybody's panicking. So the Indonesia rupiah yesterday went below 11,000 rupiah to the U.S. dollar, which is a decline of 50 per cent in three days.

How did the Federal Reserve cause this?

The U.S. central bank restarted the credit expansion process ( in early 1990s ) all too successfully. They got a huge increase in consumer credit, they aided an enormous increase in speculation in credit markets and securities markets. And they exported credit abroad, with U.S. banks becoming big lenders of money to all kinds of emerging countries, and investors became convinced the growth rate in these countries was much better than it was in the United States. Unfortunately, this credit expansion did not create inflation - - I say unfortunately, because price inflation might have stopped the credit expansion in its tracks.

But if there's no price inflation, why worry?

Here's where we have to separate the definitions of inflation. Inflation is not just a rise in prices. It's a state of affairs that says credit is too easy. Easy credit will inevitably lead to rising prices, but over a longer period of time. But easy credit surely leads to a process of excess credit creation where people borrow money to go into all kinds of speculative ventures. These credit cycles are really the causes of trade depressions. So you're right - - there's no price inflation, and some people are even worried about price deflation. We don't believe that's possible with the rate of monetary expansion we have now. But what we could get - - and this is the real danger - - is debt deflation.

What's the effect of debt deflation?

If the central bank stopped injecting credit, you get a situation where creditors start to demand repayment from debtors who can't pay. Debt deflation can cause a depression.

So what's next?

The crisis will widen. It will travel from Asia to Russia, Greece, Brazil. Eventually it will come back to the United States. It will not be a repeat of the 1970s, because the monetary expansion isn't as great. But the liquidity is in the system and we believe the United States is going to go into a very large trade deficit in the next few years. Then the U.S. dollar will come under pressure and you will start getting price inflation. The whole world is resting on the United States' shoulders right now, because the U.S. economy is still strong, and everybody needs the United States to be strong because everybody else is going to try to export their way out of their problems.

[ News ] [ Sports ] [ The Arts ] [ Commentary ] [ Report on Business ]

Back to the top of the page

We welcome your comments.

Copyright © 1998, The Globe and Mail Company

Saturday, January 10, 1998

By Terence Corcoran

INTERNATIONAL Monetary Fund chief Michel Camdessus flies to Indonesia early next week, where presumably he will explain to the panicky people of that country - - indeed, the people of all Asia - - why they are being forced by the IMF to bear the burden of a financial collapse that is not their doing. The major cause of public unease in Indonesia is the IMF- orchestrated devaluation of the rupiah, now 60 per cent since November. The devaluation, in turn, is the product of a collapsed credit bubble that fed a vast network of corporate interests associated with the Suharto dictatorship.

It is these networks, and the banks that supported them, that were major beneficiaries of the decade- long boom in Indonesia. But it is the people of Indonesia who are being forced by the IMF to pay the cost, a process Canadian currency specialist Albert Friedberg calls socializing the losses. The same distribution of losses among all taxpayers is taking place in South Korea and the other Asian countries where the IMF, backed by the United States, is moving in with programs that can only exacerbate the Asian economic crisis.

Mr. Friedberg heads Friedberg Mercantile Group of Toronto and writes unconventional commentaries on currencies that appear in the company's monthly newsletter. From Mr. Friedberg's free- market perspective, grounded in Austrian School economic theory, the Asian crisis has its origins in overexpansion of credit by the U.S. Federal Reserve that will, in time, come back to haunt the U.S. economy.

How are losses being socialized?

In the end, the IMF is pushing these countries to socialize the losses, where the losses to be taken are really the losses of 30 corporations, Mr. Friedberg said in an interview yesterday. Suddenly, now the whole country is going to be shouldering those losses. Aside from a few things that the IMF did that are good - - things like opening up markets, supporting deregulation and transparency - - the rest of what they're doing is incorrect. They're pushing the countries into a tremendous contraction. In Korea, the government was not running a big deficit. It was the private sector that had all the debt. Now the IMF is coming in and saying the government is going to have to guarantee the debt of the private companies in order to obtain more financing. In effect, the taxpayers of Korea will be paying now for losses on bad investments made by Citibank and Chase. The intelligent thing to have done would be to say to the banks: 'You lent the money to these Korean private companies. If they can't pay, they can't pay. They declare bankruptcy, you lose money.'

Would Asian currencies be stronger without the IMF plan?

If the IMF had let the companies declare bankruptcy and let Chase and Citibank worry about that, then the currencies would not have gone down as much as they have - - by far. The reason you have a sense of panic is because there's a feeling that you have to cover the value of that foreign debt, even if you're broke. These companies are broke. Why are they buying dollars to pay back debt? You would have had much less pressure on the foreign exchange market than you have at the moment. The pressure is to buy back the dollars, and so everybody's panicking. So the Indonesia rupiah yesterday went below 11,000 rupiah to the U.S. dollar, which is a decline of 50 per cent in three days.

How did the Federal Reserve cause this?

The U.S. central bank restarted the credit expansion process ( in early 1990s ) all too successfully. They got a huge increase in consumer credit, they aided an enormous increase in speculation in credit markets and securities markets. And they exported credit abroad, with U.S. banks becoming big lenders of money to all kinds of emerging countries, and investors became convinced the growth rate in these countries was much better than it was in the United States. Unfortunately, this credit expansion did not create inflation - - I say unfortunately, because price inflation might have stopped the credit expansion in its tracks.

But if there's no price inflation, why worry?

Here's where we have to separate the definitions of inflation. Inflation is not just a rise in prices. It's a state of affairs that says credit is too easy. Easy credit will inevitably lead to rising prices, but over a longer period of time. But easy credit surely leads to a process of excess credit creation where people borrow money to go into all kinds of speculative ventures. These credit cycles are really the causes of trade depressions. So you're right - - there's no price inflation, and some people are even worried about price deflation. We don't believe that's possible with the rate of monetary expansion we have now. But what we could get - - and this is the real danger - - is debt deflation.

What's the effect of debt deflation?

If the central bank stopped injecting credit, you get a situation where creditors start to demand repayment from debtors who can't pay. Debt deflation can cause a depression.

So what's next?

The crisis will widen. It will travel from Asia to Russia, Greece, Brazil. Eventually it will come back to the United States. It will not be a repeat of the 1970s, because the monetary expansion isn't as great. But the liquidity is in the system and we believe the United States is going to go into a very large trade deficit in the next few years. Then the U.S. dollar will come under pressure and you will start getting price inflation. The whole world is resting on the United States' shoulders right now, because the U.S. economy is still strong, and everybody needs the United States to be strong because everybody else is going to try to export their way out of their problems.

[ News ] [ Sports ] [ The Arts ] [ Commentary ] [ Report on Business ]

Back to the top of the page

We welcome your comments.

Copyright © 1998, The Globe and Mail Company

Saturday, January 10, 1998

By Terence Corcoran

INTERNATIONAL Monetary Fund chief Michel Camdessus flies to Indonesia early next week, where presumably he will explain to the panicky people of that country - - indeed, the people of all Asia - - why they are being forced by the IMF to bear the burden of a financial collapse that is not their doing. The major cause of public unease in Indonesia is the IMF- orchestrated devaluation of the rupiah, now 60 per cent since November. The devaluation, in turn, is the product of a collapsed credit bubble that fed a vast network of corporate interests associated with the Suharto dictatorship.

It is these networks, and the banks that supported them, that were major beneficiaries of the decade- long boom in Indonesia. But it is the people of Indonesia who are being forced by the IMF to pay the cost, a process Canadian currency specialist Albert Friedberg calls socializing the losses. The same distribution of losses among all taxpayers is taking place in South Korea and the other Asian countries where the IMF, backed by the United States, is moving in with programs that can only exacerbate the Asian economic crisis.

Mr. Friedberg heads Friedberg Mercantile Group of Toronto and writes unconventional commentaries on currencies that appear in the company's monthly newsletter. From Mr. Friedberg's free- market perspective, grounded in Austrian School economic theory, the Asian crisis has its origins in overexpansion of credit by the U.S. Federal Reserve that will, in time, come back to haunt the U.S. economy.

How are losses being socialized?

In the end, the IMF is pushing these countries to socialize the losses, where the losses to be taken are really the losses of 30 corporations, Mr. Friedberg said in an interview yesterday. Suddenly, now the whole country is going to be shouldering those losses. Aside from a few things that the IMF did that are good - - things like opening up markets, supporting deregulation and transparency - - the rest of what they're doing is incorrect. They're pushing the countries into a tremendous contraction. In Korea, the government was not running a big deficit. It was the private sector that had all the debt. Now the IMF is coming in and saying the government is going to have to guarantee the debt of the private companies in order to obtain more financing. In effect, the taxpayers of Korea will be paying now for losses on bad investments made by Citibank and Chase. The intelligent thing to have done would be to say to the banks: 'You lent the money to these Korean private companies. If they can't pay, they can't pay. They declare bankruptcy, you lose money.'

Would Asian currencies be stronger without the IMF plan?

If the IMF had let the companies declare bankruptcy and let Chase and Citibank worry about that, then the currencies would not have gone down as much as they have - - by far. The reason you have a sense of panic is because there's a feeling that you have to cover the value of that foreign debt, even if you're broke. These companies are broke. Why are they buying dollars to pay back debt? You would have had much less pressure on the foreign exchange market than you have at the moment. The pressure is to buy back the dollars, and so everybody's panicking. So the Indonesia rupiah yesterday went below 11,000 rupiah to the U.S. dollar, which is a decline of 50 per cent in three days.

How did the Federal Reserve cause this?

The U.S. central bank restarted the credit expansion process ( in early 1990s ) all too successfully. They got a huge increase in consumer credit, they aided an enormous increase in speculation in credit markets and securities markets. And they exported credit abroad, with U.S. banks becoming big lenders of money to all kinds of emerging countries, and investors became convinced the growth rate in these countries was much better than it was in the United States. Unfortunately, this credit expansion did not create inflation - - I say unfortunately, because price inflation might have stopped the credit expansion in its tracks.

But if there's no price inflation, why worry?

Here's where we have to separate the definitions of inflation. Inflation is not just a rise in prices. It's a state of affairs that says credit is too easy. Easy credit will inevitably lead to rising prices, but over a longer period of time. But easy credit surely leads to a process of excess credit creation where people borrow money to go into all kinds of speculative ventures. These credit cycles are really the causes of trade depressions. So you're right - - there's no price inflation, and some people are even worried about price deflation. We don't believe that's possible with the rate of monetary expansion we have now. But what we could get - - and this is the real danger - - is debt deflation.

What's the effect of debt deflation?

If the central bank stopped injecting credit, you get a situation where creditors start to demand repayment from debtors who can't pay. Debt deflation can cause a depression.

So what's next?

The crisis will widen. It will travel from Asia to Russia, Greece, Brazil. Eventually it will come back to the United States. It will not be a repeat of the 1970s, because the monetary expansion isn't as great. But the liquidity is in the system and we believe the United States is going to go into a very large trade deficit in the next few years. Then the U.S. dollar will come under pressure and you will start getting price inflation. The whole world is resting on the United States' shoulders right now, because the U.S. economy is still strong, and everybody needs the United States to be strong because everybody else is going to try to export their way out of their problems.

[ News ] [ Sports ] [ The Arts ] [ Commentary ] [ Report on Business ]

Back to the top of the page

We welcome your comments.

Copyright © 1998, The Globe and Mail Company

Saturday, January 10, 1998

By Terence Corcoran

INTERNATIONAL Monetary Fund chief Michel Camdessus flies to Indonesia early next week, where presumably he will explain to the panicky people of that country - - indeed, the people of all Asia - - why they are being forced by the IMF to bear the burden of a financial collapse that is not their doing. The major cause of public unease in Indonesia is the IMF- orchestrated devaluation of the rupiah, now 60 per cent since November. The devaluation, in turn, is the product of a collapsed credit bubble that fed a vast network of corporate interests associated with the Suharto dictatorship.

It is these networks, and the banks that supported them, that were major beneficiaries of the decade- long boom in Indonesia. But it is the people of Indonesia who are being forced by the IMF to pay the cost, a process Canadian currency specialist Albert Friedberg calls socializing the losses. The same distribution of losses among all taxpayers is taking place in South Korea and the other Asian countries where the IMF, backed by the United States, is moving in with programs that can only exacerbate the Asian economic crisis.

Mr. Friedberg heads Friedberg Mercantile Group of Toronto and writes unconventional commentaries on currencies that appear in the company's monthly newsletter. From Mr. Friedberg's free- market perspective, grounded in Austrian School economic theory, the Asian crisis has its origins in overexpansion of credit by the U.S. Federal Reserve that will, in time, come back to haunt the U.S. economy.

How are losses being socialized?

In the end, the IMF is pushing these countries to socialize the losses, where the losses to be taken are really the losses of 30 corporations, Mr. Friedberg said in an interview yesterday. Suddenly, now the whole country is going to be shouldering those losses. Aside from a few things that the IMF did that are good - - things like opening up markets, supporting deregulation and transparency - - the rest of what they're doing is incorrect. They're pushing the countries into a tremendous contraction. In Korea, the government was not running a big deficit. It was the private sector that had all the debt. Now the IMF is coming in and saying the government is going to have to guarantee the debt of the private companies in order to obtain more financing. In effect, the taxpayers of Korea will be paying now for losses on bad investments made by Citibank and Chase. The intelligent thing to have done would be to say to the banks: 'You lent the money to these Korean private companies. If they can't pay, they can't pay. They declare bankruptcy, you lose money.'

Would Asian currencies be stronger without the IMF plan?

If the IMF had let the companies declare bankruptcy and let Chase and Citibank worry about that, then the currencies would not have gone down as much as they have - - by far. The reason you have a sense of panic is because there's a feeling that you have to cover the value of that foreign debt, even if you're broke. These companies are broke. Why are they buying dollars to pay back debt? You would have had much less pressure on the foreign exchange market than you have at the moment. The pressure is to buy back the dollars, and so everybody's panicking. So the Indonesia rupiah yesterday went below 11,000 rupiah to the U.S. dollar, which is a decline of 50 per cent in three days.

How did the Federal Reserve cause this?

The U.S. central bank restarted the credit expansion process ( in early 1990s ) all too successfully. They got a huge increase in consumer credit, they aided an enormous increase in speculation in credit markets and securities markets. And they exported credit abroad, with U.S. banks becoming big lenders of money to all kinds of emerging countries, and investors became convinced the growth rate in these countries was much better than it was in the United States. Unfortunately, this credit expansion did not create inflation - - I say unfortunately, because price inflation might have stopped the credit expansion in its tracks.

But if there's no price inflation, why worry?

Here's where we have to separate the definitions of inflation. Inflation is not just a rise in prices. It's a state of affairs that says credit is too easy. Easy credit will inevitably lead to rising prices, but over a longer period of time. But easy credit surely leads to a process of excess credit creation where people borrow money to go into all kinds of speculative ventures. These credit cycles are really the causes of trade depressions. So you're right - - there's no price inflation, and some people are even worried about price deflation. We don't believe that's possible with the rate of monetary expansion we have now. But what we could get - - and this is the real danger - - is debt deflation.

What's the effect of debt deflation?

If the central bank stopped injecting credit, you get a situation where creditors start to demand repayment from debtors who can't pay. Debt deflation can cause a depression.

So what's next?

The crisis will widen. It will travel from Asia to Russia, Greece, Brazil. Eventually it will come back to the United States. It will not be a repeat of the 1970s, because the monetary expansion isn't as great. But the liquidity is in the system and we believe the United States is going to go into a very large trade deficit in the next few years. Then the U.S. dollar will come under pressure and you will start getting price inflation. The whole world is resting on the United States' shoulders right now, because the U.S. economy is still strong, and everybody needs the United States to be strong because everybody else is going to try to export their way out of their problems.

[ News ] [ Sports ] [ The Arts ] [ Commentary ] [ Report on Business ]

Back to the top of the page

We welcome your comments.

Copyright © 1998, The Globe and Mail Co

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:20
grant (Spudmaster) ID#432221:
EErily similar to the Conceald Handgun Liscense.
They don't wanna come here for my assets.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:19
RJ (..... Grant .....) ID#411259:

grant-

I can help you with the gold coins, about $13 over spot for Leafs, VP, etc........

rjd@pacbell.net

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:17
Pete (JTF-Well put!!!) ID#22451:
I agree.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:14
RJ (..... Kitco Poster of the Year .....) ID#411259:

Couldn't resist the Mike Sheller Kitco Poster of the Year Award ( KPY ) .

I would like to nominate our irrepressible EB ( don't know how to do those fancy accents he uses, he won't tell me how ) It was fun this year watching his confidence grow as these markets seemed to bend to his will - for the most part anyway.

EB's posts can best be described as the literary equivalent of a champagne burp, usually quite unexpected but not at all unpleasant and always leaving you with that bubbly tingle in the back of the nose that no beer belch can quite duplicate. I know our friend is more the pop the can- o- suds type, but I predict champagne corks for his tomorrows should he continue to view these markets for what they are rather than what he wishes them to be. And while I appreciate Tort's jokes, EB's spontaneous exuberance is always a pleasure to read. So goes my vote for KPY, but the category seems a bit too restrictive, either in scope or quantity. Naming one as KPY seems a job unfinished.

Been reading a lot of late about Mt. Everest and high altitude climbing. One can not understand how the top of the world can be attained without some understanding of the culture of the Sherpas of the Khumbu. These are hardy souls, acclimated to lofty heights by a lifetime of breathing the thin air above 10,000 feet. It is the Sherpa's who carry the bulk of equipment and supplies to the upper reaches of the mountain. More times than not, it is a Sherpa who will break trail and fix ropes to virgin ice and snow, often without the aid of supplementary oxygen.

Sherpa's are a very spiritual people who see portends in the stars and believe strongly in the mountain gods, chief of which is Chomolungma ( as Everest is known in Tibet ) literally translated as Mother Goddess of the World. These are hardy souls whose loyalty and courage remain the great untold story of man's conquest of the last earthly frontier.

I read of these people and their determination to climb these holy places with reverence and respect, and I am reminded of Mike Sheller who has been the heart and soul of this forum from the beginning. He has taken an enormous amount of heat for some of his beliefs and responded with wit and courage and understanding. There are some individuals here who deserve to be called a gentleman, but it is Mike Sheller who has broken the trail and showed us all what Lincoln called the better angles of our nature. Sheller for Kitco Lhama.


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:13
grant (Spudmaster) ID#432221:
Nope. Found 'em at American on Hulen. Fort Worth got any? Are the foriegn more easily attainable?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:07
OLD GOLD (Suharto) ID#238295:
Indonesia's Suharto is one of this century's most blood stained tyrants having slaughtered several MILLION people during his 20 year rule. But that is no problem as long as he pays his debts on time. But when the debts can no longer be paid, then the sh..t hits the fan.

This says something very profound about the values of modern international capitalism.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:07
2BR02B? (@bonds have more fun!) ID#263153:
Spud Master ( @Mike Sheller & grant ) ID#273112:
Mike: Japan's Hashimoto ( sp? ) HAS said something positive about gold a month or two back in Denver, when that ass that passes for the President no doubt tried to jerk him around. It was something like:

Be thankful Japan does no abandon your worthless dollar, jerky, and buy gold.

___________________________________________________________________


So there's two pranksters who know that party trick, AG and
Hashimoto, of sucking a cool tril out global markets with a single
breath, as if a balloon.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:07
Spud Master (on the Texas $1000 tax exemption on gold...) ID#273112:
Ostensibly this is to shield users of gold ( goldsmiths, jewelers ) from taxes - but in reality it is to get the name, address of the gold buyer on that little paper form you have to sign when you buy the gold.

Some pinto- bean counter yuppie in Austin, Texas dutifully enters it into some unholy database there, waiting for the day when the inept bastard politicians attempt to steal it from the law abiding citizens of Texas.

I would advise them to remember not the Alamo, but the battle of San Jacinto.

Aye, Haggis indeed!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 15:01
SDRer__A () ID#288155:
In Asia- - -
put out many wanings against financial AIDS- - that is, speculation in the economy- - warnings which were published widely in China.

And in China, where the timeline is quite 'different':
So, by 1993, the Chinese government consciously turned away from the bubble economy, put more emphasis on a dirigist policy, and there was a clear revival of the famous policy of the founder of modern China, Dr. Sun Yat- sen, who, in the 1920s, had put out a beautiful document called the `International Development of China.'' This is a map he used, which includes a very elaborated system of integrated railways, water projects, and other infrastructure programs.

Dr. Sun at that point proposed a rail system to be 100,000 km long, one million kilometers of new roads, large canal projects, and projects for the control of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River, the construction of many new cities, which is all in this map.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:59
Spud Master (@Mike Sheller & grant) ID#273112:
Mike: Japan's Hashimoto ( sp? ) HAS said something positive about gold a month or two back in Denver, when that ass that passes for the President no doubt tried to jerk him around. It was something like:

Be thankful Japan does no abandon your worthless dollar, jerky, and buyt gold.

Grant: Mein Gott! It's a small world all right. That's why I wonder just how many Texans are on the board. Big percentage I think. Did you try Fort Worth Coin & Gold on West 7th street?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:57
JTF (Wow - alot of questions! I am only a Physicist, not an expert in the shady part of history!) ID#57232:
pete: I will try to answer your questions in a general way. First, the IMF is not the right type of organization to bail out SEAsia. What is needed is a volunteer business team - - sort of like a corporate turnaround group - - ideally mostly Asian. The actual banking/business structure in that part of the world needs to be modified to our ( western ) ideal ( not necessarily what we are doing ) - - hopefully merged with Asian/oriental concepts of what constitutes an uncorruptible, honest, open corporate/financial system. We should be aiding the SEAsian countries in other ways - - with no strings attached as well - - but we will have to be very sparing on the money for obvious reasons.

With regard to Opium, England and China, I don't have facts. But I expect that English businessmen saw an opportunity when they learned about those chinese opium dens. So - - there were Chinese addicts first - - I'm pretty sure about this part of history. I don't think you can blame a whole country for being actively involved in encouraging Opium trade in China, but England might have been partially to blame for looking the other way.

I have wondered about a controversial concept in blame - - was the rest of the world to blame allowing Hitler come to power - - not Hitler himself?

Interesting idea, isn't it? We are all to blame for letting bad things happen - - so is England any more to blame than any of the other western countries that carved up China while she was weak, and essentially without leadership?

With regard to predictions of the future with reference to cycles, there is much. Unfortunately this information is scattered, and only a few on this earth are astute enough to know the importance of this. This is due in part to human nature - - that we quickly forget the mistakes of our ancestors, and we quickly ( a generation or two ) lose touch with reality, and expect to get whatever it is we want without really having to work for it. Also humans tend to act like slow- cooked frogs. We can have all sorts of bad things done to us as long as the heat is turned up slowly.

I don't think there is a mind control conspiracy out there to push us through cycles. We do very well getting into messes just by ourselves. However, using the cycle theory of AV ( AK? ) Sarkar, we are now in the acquisitor phase all over the world, where a few are conspiring to get as much of the world's assets as possible. This is not an organized conspiracy, just a natural cycle. The next part of the cycle will be the laborer cycle as he puts it I think, where the average person says enough and demonstrates in Indonesia, etc. If this happens without much support from the untouched part of the world, there will be war, and we will pass into the warrior part of the cycle, where the laborers will actively relinquish power to a new warrior type leader.

I hope this time we will not give the next Hitler ( warrior ) the opportunity to come to the support of all the angry people. I believe we have free will despite the fact that modern Quantum Mechanics fairly convincingly says that past/present/future are connected. It is our duty as members of the human race to help others in any way we can to prevent the Antichrist from rising to power - - the worst kind of warrior of SR Sarkar's cycle. We must avoid the mistakes the world made with Germany after WWI. And - - each of us keeping at least a little of our assets will cushion the blow of what ever may be coming our way.

Now I'm off the soap box - - I hope these ideas help, even if I am not capable of answering each of your questions individually.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:56
2BR02B? (@Mr. Grant) ID#263153:
Mike Sheller ( Deep Do...Do ) ID#347447:
STRAD: It's amazing, isn't it, how people expect one statesperson to Do Something virtually impossible in a week,
when a decade worth of sh*t hits the fan.


_________________________________________________________________


In finance, decay is more colorful than probity, and the
prevailing direction of change in the past generation has only
enriched the content of the narrative.

- - James Grant; Money of the Mind; A History of Credit and
Lending in America from the Civil War to Michael Milken

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:56
veg (gold leverage + timing) ID#42682:

commentary needed- best way to trade gold bullion- if one could imagine the 340 u.s. price between may - dec 1998

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:56
Barb Hughes (RE: Panda-ing) ID#20783:
SEE: http://www.pandaamerica.com/panda.asp

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:50
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Strad - - Any country that builds its future upon a debt- based money system is doomed to transfer its sovereignty to the lenders and their whims. In the case of S.E. Asia, they have a choice of who their sovereignty transfers to: China, or the West. If to China, then expect default of western debt and the payment thereof picked up by the taxpayers as in the case of the S& Ls. There is NO WAY that the IMF can pick up the whole tab! Best they can do is supply, at taxpayer expense, a band- aid and lip service. AND, what goes around COMES around! After all, we are ONE big 'happy' family. We will ALL share the same flu.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:48
Rob (gold standard) ID#410114:
Mike

Gold Standard was up on friday dispite the continued drop in gold shares and the dow. What do the stars hold for GSTD now?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:48
Carl (Wall Street over reacting.Asia in nothingsays Morgan Stanley strategist.) ID#333131:
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/980111/business/stories/stocksweek_1.html

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:47
2BR02B? (@derivatives?) ID#263153:

BUSINESS

January 09, 1998

HOW EXOTIC DERIVATIVES

TOOK DOWN KOREA'S

ECONOMY

BY JOHN CRUDELE

THIS column is about gambling.

More specifically, it's about how Korean banks and

brokerages may have gotten themselves into the deep

mess they are now in by placing nervy bets on their

currency's performance against the U.S. dollar. The

column is also about how American taxpayers may

right this very minute be paying off these Korean

gambling debts.

Paying off gambling debts, of course, wouldn't sit well

with Congress. So the official line from the Federal

Reserve and the White House is that Koreans took

out loans that they now can't repay because their

currency and economy suddenly took a turn for the

worse.

Hey, we can all sympathize. Sometimes things happen

that are beyond our control. The Koreans are no

different.

But before another penny is earmarked for the Korean

bailout, Americans should demand an accounting of a

derivative security called the undeliverable forward.

There are lots of esoteric made- up securities, also

known as derivatives, floating around out there. And

Korean investors were probably involved in all of

them. But these undeliverable forwards are tricky, so

pay attention.

These undeliverable forward contracts are a bet,

nothing more, on how two currencies will move in

relationship to one another by some time in the future.

Six months. A year. The bettors can let the contract

run for as long as they want, but the expiration date is

set on each contract.

And it really is nothing more than a bet, a wager,

something that should be done at the tables in Vegas

rather than on Wall Street.

It works like this. Lets say, Bank XYZ of San Diego

believes the U.S. dollar will rise in value and Bank

ABC in Seoul really, really believes that the Korean

won - that country's currency - is about to take off.

The two sides enter into a derivative contract making

their respective wagers. Typically the bet is many

millions of dollars.

But here's the key to it all. Under normal

circumstances, if the Korean bank comes out the loser

it would just ship the difference in value to the

American bank in the Korean currency, the won.

But that doesn't happen in these undeliverable

forward contracts.

Because the American bank doesn't want the thinly

traded, weak- in- the- knees Korean currency, the

terms of the undeliverable future contract specifically

state that the trade will be settled for cash and in

dollars.

So here's what some experts on Wall Street suspect

happened.

The Korean currency got hammered a few months

ago when the Korean government refused to fight

speculators who were taking it lower. That, of course,

made the Korean banks betting on the won in these

undeliverable future contracts big losers. But the

Korean banks, already down on their luck, couldn't

come up with the dollars to pay off their bets to the

Americans.

Too bad, you say? They should pay anyway?

Well, if this is what was happening, it's really too bad

for the American banks and companies that used this

device to hedge against currency risk. If the Koreans

can't pay, they can't pay. The Americans will get

stiffed. And if they've already booked these trading

gains as profits - well, they'll have to unbook them.

Nobody - except perhaps the Fed - knows how much

exposure the Koreans have to these undeliverable

forward contracts. But the best guess is that $48

billion is the total amount Koreans have invested in all

derivatives - just short of the current size of the whole

Korean bailout.

Experts tell me there is one way out of the dilemma.

The American banks could roll these undeliverable

contracts over for another period of time. But, of

course, every solution in the Asian crisis causes a new

dilemma.

CLICK YOUR BROWSER'S BACK BUTTON TO RETURN TO SEARCH RESULTS

Copyright ( c ) 1997, N.Y.P. Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part in any form or

medium without express written permission of the New York Post is prohibited.


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:43
Selby () ID#286230:
OLD GOLD: Great article. I wonder how the CB's are planning to handle the price rise that a reduction of production implies.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:40
SDRer__A () ID#288155:
EUROPE- - One Year Ago....
“But, let me first give you a taste of what the debate is, especially in Europe, about the imminence of the financial crash...

IIn the meantime, you have European conservative financial dailies, like the Neue Zuericher Zeitung, which is the paper of Swiss banking and conservative circles, on Jan. 24 ( 1997 ) reporting in a big banner headline: ``Are the Stock Markets Heading for a New Crash?
Comparison of the Present Development with that of 1929 and 1987.''

On Jan. 15, in Frankfurt, the president of the German savings and loan association, Horst Koehler, warned that overnight, waves of chaotic currency speculation could erupt. On Jan. 19, at a seminar of the Protestant Academy of Tutzing, the former chief economist of the Bavarian Hypo Bank, Volker Hoelterhoff, said that the world financial markets are incredibly endangered.

The arch- monetarist of Deutsche, Norbert Walter, said that the world financial markets are decoupled completely from the real economy. Especially dangerous: the derivatives, and the breathtaking volume of these derivatives is absolutely frightening.

Jan. 20, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung predicts that the stock market hype in New York and in Europe, is just the buying spree based on the assumption that the party will be over soon.

Jan. 21, Le Monde: Is the financial world going up in flames? They have a three- page supplement on the danger of a financial blowout, basically saying that ``Alone during the first nine months of 1996, $1,195 billion of stocks and bonds have been issued.'' That is $1.1 trillion worth of stocks and bonds have been issued, in which context they quote the U.S. stock broker Charles Schwab saying,``How can anyone not tremble when imagining the consequences of an eventual brutal displacement of such masses of capital?''



Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:38
themissinglink (Strad Master) ID#373403:
If you were the leader of Indonesia what would you do?

1 ) Accept IMF austerity in order to be loaned money by the west which must immediately be turned around and paid to the west. In effect this is a loan rollover with hard economic strings attached.

2 ) Call all the western banks you owe money to and tell them you need more time. Then go on with the budget measures YOU feel are necessary to fix your county's problems.

Keep in mind that under scenario 2 you lose international standing but your currency is so devalued that you cannot import anything anyways.
Even with the loss of standing, these western nations must still buy your goods or forget completely about getting repaid.

What would you do?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:35
aurator (Woik, woik, woik.) ID#257148:
Mike S

Ad Hominem for President.

You've got a monkey now, could be a close run thing


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:31
OLD GOLD ($280) ID#238295:
Farfel: Your $280 post was greatly appreciated. The following article from the World Gold Council web site supports your argument that much production will be coming off line VERY SOON.

Gold Comment from
Williams de Broë



 

 
 

 
Gold Comment
Can the collapse continue?




 
 

 
Introduction

It will come as no surprise that the gold price has continued to lose its lustre in the past few days as the price broke through the
important US$300/oz level and is now heading for the US$285/oz support level which defined the end of the gold bear market in
1985. As per usual when a sector is on its knees, the harbingers of doom are falling over themselves in attempts to justify the end
for gold. The same happened in 1992, with the favourite bug bear once again being central bank selling. The ‘one downmanship’
crowd are not dissimilar to the people who were selling houses in London in 1994 and pronouncing at exceedingly tedious dinner
parties why real estate would be dead forever - prices have been rising steadily ever since.

This note is intended to inject some cold reality into the arguments relating to the gold price. There are two principal factors
influencing the movement of the gold price.

1 ) Fundamentals of supply and demand.

2 ) Market sentiment and trading- related issues.

We will consider both points in this note.

Fundamentals of supply and demand

Supply

Before the current slump in the industry, world gold mined production was running at 2,200 tonnes annually. At the current gold
price more than 50% of mined gold production ie more than 1,100 tonnes annually, is unprofitable, which is an unsustainable
situation. Any of the alleged city mining ‘ experts’ who believe that it will be more than a year before mined gold production starts
to reduce should attend one of the many emergency management meetings which are taking place at gold mines around the world
or contact the mine suppliers who are witnessing empty order books, and contemplating lay- offs. Mines which were struggling to
generate any significant profits at US$380/oz last year are in dire straits in the current price environment and are being steadily
joined in that predicament by their lower cost cousins.

The reality is that a number of gold mines around the world are already at a crisis point. Measures which are under way include
cancelling overtime, cutting expenditure on supplies, cutting non- essential maintenance, lay- offs, delaying tunnelling work, halting
the mining of low grade areas, and generally belt tightening. The cuts which are occurring have a twofold effect.





Initially, the result is reduced production from higher cost areas of the struggling gold mine, which when repeated across the
hundreds of gold mines currently losing money, will have a noticeable effect on world production levels. The second follow up
effect is that after several months the mines begin to exhaust developed ore reserves, production tails off more rapidly, unit costs
increase quickly because of scheduling problems and closure looms unless there is a turn around in the gold price.

We are already witnessing drops in production from high cost mines such as Evander, Freegold and Kloof
in South Africa, Royal Oak’ s operations and Mount Todd ( Pegasus ) in Australia. Mined gold production is
looking into the abyss and the rate of decline will pick up in the next few months.



Included above is a list of some of the obvious closure candidates which are operated by North American gold miners alone. It
should be remembered that the North American gold mining companies have the lowest cash cost profile in the industry. Other
components of the gold industry such as the low grade Australian operations and the deep South African mines are closer to an
encounter with the ‘grim reaper’ .

The other major factors which supply gold onto the market are forward selling/gold loan activities by or on behalf of the gold
mining companies, central bank selling, and the recycling of gold scrap/disinvestment.

The level of forward selling/gold loans which is continuing in the current market is difficult to measure with any degree of
accuracy. There are a few examples of increased gold forward sales such as by some of the Australian gold producers who have
been actively hedging, whilst companies such as Western Areas and Newmont Mining have bought back forward positions. Most
of the gold companies are abandoning expansion plans until the gold price improves, which diminishes the need to negotiate gold
loans. The fact that gold lease rates have held at a record high level of 2% this year is partly an indication of producer demand but
is more a function of the record investment fund shorting of the market which is currently occurring.

Central bank selling is clearly the largest worry hanging over the gold market. The Australian Central Bank decision to sell 66% of
its gold holdings ( 167 tonnes ) was a psychological blow to market sentiment. This was followed up by Swiss news that the sale of
up to 1,400 tonnes of gold reserves is mooted by one group of government advisers ( we do not believe that the necessary
referendum will give approval for the sale of gold ) , and concerns about the reserves of gold to be retained by the European Central
Bank ( see comments below ) .

Central Bank selling has been a regular feature of the gold market for the past 20 years; averaging around 400 tonnes per annum.
Official Central Bank selling in 1997, with 95% of the year complete, has been lower than the average at 340 tonnes including the
Australian sale and a sale by the Argentine Central Bank. Although it is possible that some selling has occurred which is yet to be
admitted to, the official IMF figures do not indicate any additional central bank sales. The negative central bank sentiment has
clearly not had the effect of increasing net sales.

In a market deafened by the roar of the bears, alternative indicators are currently being ignored. Europe is only one part of the
world, there are a number of fundamental fiscal problems in Asia and the other emerging markets which are reinforcing gold’ s
fundamental role at the centre of the banking system. For example, the Russian Central Bank has a policy of increasing its gold
reserves and is only selling 30% of mined gold Russian gold production with the lion’ s share being added to central bank
reserves. We anticipate renewed interest in holding gold from major economies such as South Korea, Japan, Brazil and Thailand
when the current financial crisis has been overcome.

Meanwhile, the recycling of scrap metal and disinvestment are down because of the lower gold price ( see below ) .

Demand

The most accurate report relating to demand for gold in the major markets is provided by the World Gold Council quarterly report
‘Gold Demand Trends’. Some of the key points in the report for 3Q97 include the following:-

Record Q3 demand for gold worldwide at 705.3 tonnes which was a 6% increase from Q3 1996. This equates to a
consumption rate of 2,820 tonnes per annum as compared to the 2,200 tonnes of annual mined supply before the current
production cost, closure situation.
This growth in demand is despite some weakening in the major South East Asian economies which have experienced a
currency crisis. ( We believe demand will recover in these areas because it will not have escaped peoples’ attention that
gold has once again proven to be a store of value when paper currencies such as the Won and Baht collapsed. )
Recycling of scrap gold fell by 27% during the first half of 1997 when compared to the previous year.
The gold price, when measured in a basket of world currencies from major gold consuming nations, has outperformed the
US dollar price by 18% during the past two years.

The overall conclusion which can be reached is that the outlook for gold demand is excellent and consumption is set to rise steadily
unless there is a major appreciation of the gold price.

Market sentiment and trading- related issues

The massive short positions in gold which have been accumulated, principally in New York, are now paying off for the hedge
funds which control them and the relevant question is when/if the funds stop shorting the market and go long.

It is interesting to note that the same funds which are currently very short in the gold market are simultaneously long in the silver
market because of a fundamental imbalance in the supply and demand picture.



The indications currently are that hedge funds are still heavily shorting the gold market. Sentiment is still very negative as is
evident from the fact that most of the business information services and publications are ( displaying a canine instinct for running
after bandwagons barking ) carrying very negative but often poorly argued commentary about the gold market.

So what does it all mean?

Anyone who claims to be able to accurately predict the gold price is probably destined to be collected in a large white van with a
siren, on a trip to the funny farm.

It is less crazy to predict the general trend in the market. We believe that in the very short term, the gold price will continue to
weaken and may break down through the US$284 level before Christmas because of market nervousness about the central bank
situation and all the analysts who have turned negative now that the price has fallen US$124 from its high just less than two years
ago. The question for 1998, however, is not if the price will rebound, but when it will rebound. If the gold price stays at current
levels there will be a large scale reduction in the mined supply of gold which will force the price to rise.

There is a very real possibility that the gold market will be severely squeezed by a struggling mining company defaulting on a gold
loan ( see diagram below ) . The platinum and palladium leasing market rates increased from 2% to 20% when the Russian PGM
suppliers defaulted on deliveries in June 1997, and there was a severe squeeze on the availability of physical metal.



The only event which will help the high cost operations to survive will be a rise in the gold price. We do not believe that the much
mooted flood of gold onto the market from central banks is a realistic worry, the same bug bear has been used to scare the market
when the US sold 530 tonnes in 1975, the IMF disposed of 1,600 tonnes in 1976- 80, and when the Russians were rumoured to
be big sellers in 1992. The European Central Bank gold reserve level will be very much influenced by the Bundesbank which is
very pro gold, and the Swiss are highly unlikely to achieve permission to sell gold from their highly educated electorate, in a
referendum even if the proposal survives long enough to reach a referendum.

In conclusion, we expect the gold price to bounce to the US$360- 400/oz range during the first half of 1998.
The subsequent performance of the gold price will be dampened by renewed producer forward selling and how physical demand is
affected by the run up in the price. When the turn around occurs, the market capitalisation of large, liquid and
low- cost producers such as Newmont Mining and Teck Corporation will increase by more than 40% , and
other sectors such as the South African major gold producers or the junior golds will re- rate upwards,
rapidly.



A more detailed analysis of the best way to exploit a turnaround in the gold market will be included in our next North American
Miner.

Please refer to the disclaimer and risk warnings below.



Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:30
Ted (Slash is trash......) ID#364147:
As in Cordell Stewart~~~~~~~~

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:29
SDRer__A (JTF--Behind the scenes, they were saying ... ) ID#288155:
BERGSTEN AT DAVOS, 1997 - - ONE YEAR AGO....

THE COMING CRASH
The director of the Institute for International Economics in Washington, C. Fred Bergsten, did make a speech at the Davos conference, warning of the new dangers to the financial system coming from Japan, triggered by the yen crisis plus the overall economic situation in Japan, which would pose new threats to the international system. He says there is the danger of a vicious circle, a weakness of the financial system in Japan, combined with a restrictive Japanese monetarist policy, which could lead to a continuous fall of the yen. Panic selling on the stock market could hit Japan, and then banks would have no other choice than to liquidate their foreign assets. This would then have devastating consequences on foreign markets. And then, in addition, you could have new Mexico- style crises in the emerging markets at any moment, most likely in Brazil and Argentina, and that could then trigger a chain reaction all over the world.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:25
JTF (Davos Conference) ID#57232:
SDRer: Those posts in the FT sure don't say much, do they? Sounds more like collection of pep talks to me - - I wonder what was really said behind closed doors. I can't believe they aren't worried about the world economic system. I bet there are sessions for public consumption, as well as private working sessions. Davos would not survive very long of they stuff we are reading is really what is happening.
I did like the comment about Russia being in a depression. That at least is telling it the way it is.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:23
Mike Sheller (Deep Do...Do) ID#347447:
STRAD: It's amazing, isn't it, how people expect one statesperson to Do Something virtually impossible in a week, when a decade worth of sh*t hits the fan.

AURATOR: Should I have added Hominem to the list? Speek to me.
Better yet, go to woik. At least someone here will be making some money.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:23
2BR02B? (@davos) ID#263153:
from the Davos link:

Among them are Bill Gates, Chairman and CEO of Microsoft Corporation; Andy Grove, President and CEO of Intel; Lewis Platt, President and CEO
of Hewlett Packard; and Jack Welch, Chairman and CEO of General Electric Co.

___________________________________________________________________

For awhile there GE, Microsoft and Intel were 1- 2- 3, win place
and show in terms of the market cap horse race, outdistancing names
like Coke, IBM, Exxon.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:20
Strad Master (Indonesia dedfault?) ID#250297:
ALL: Big article in today's LA Times all about how it's up to Suharto in Indonesia to DO SOMETHING - ANYTHING about the economic crisis or step down. The IMF people and the Clinton people are descending on him to pressure him into either abdicating or accepting their draconian proposals to fix Indonesia. At present Indonesia is staring down the barrel of a $133 billion default. Needless to say, Indonesia appears to be something of a lynchpin for the rest of the Asian and world economies at this point.
Any bets as to the resolution of this drama? Will the IMF and Clinton ed al force him into submission or will Suharto dig in his heels and tell the rest of the world to buzz off? Will he be deposed? How would a default affect everything else? Fascinating, scary stuff, eh? I'd love y'all's comments!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:15
A.Goose () ID#20136:

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:59
SDRer__A ( A. Goose: an overview of Davos 1997 is available at ) ID#288155:

Thanks SDRer. Davos will definitely be exciting this year. They may need armed guards because I don't believe that the Asians are taking kindly to the way they are being treated in this currency crisis. As you have mentioned business in the West has to be furious about the competive edge that has been lost ( especially to U.S. multinationals ) . I think you are right in saying much can be learned from watching for signs coming out and around this meeting.

Someone posted a writeup from Gates on last years meeting. It gave a good overview on the talent and intensity of the meeting.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:13
themissinglink (From USA Today) ID#373403:
Cohen assures Asia of U.S. presence KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia - In an attempt to stabilize Asia's financial meltdown, Defense Secretary William Cohen began a tour of the region Sunday to demonstrate that America remains an ally in good times and bad. About 100,000 American troops are based in Asia, mostly in Japan and South Korea. Cohen is the highest- ranking Clinton administration official to visit this region since its once- vibrant economies began slipping last summer to reach the point of collapse in recent weeks. He said he hopes his presence will provide reassurance despite his lack of suggestions for fixing the crisis.

Thai army joins economy battle BANGKOK, Thailand - Thailand's army has joined the battle against the country's economic crisis, organizing a festival in downtown Bangkok to encourage people to contribute to government coffers. As many as 8,000 people turned out early Sunday for the biggest mass event so far in support of the Thai- Help- Thai campaign, established last month by a Buddhist monk worried about the country's financial woes. People are being asked to give what they can to the treasury, and trade in hard currency for Thai baht to boost the official foreign reserves.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:11
aurator (Voting paper---informal) ID#257148:
Mike Sheller

BEfore I go to work, ( am i the only person working in this entire goldern woirld right now? ) I vote for GARTMAN OF THE GARTMAN LETTER FAME. He lurks, he shirks, he reads us, he needs us, he disses us yet he never misses us.

Send him to Washington

aurapollsterator

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:10
grant (In Texas,there is a sales tax exemption for purchases of bullionover $1000) ID#432221:
Do ya think thats in place to limit interstate purchasing ie. money leavin the state? How common is this?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:06
Pete (JTF-Re: your 12:42 post) ID#22451:
Thank you for your reply. Let me say I respect your opinion even though I disagree. So, for now say we will agree to disagree.

There are several questions I would appreciate your opinion on.
1. ) What are your thoughts concerning the policies imposed by the IMF on sovereign nations?
2. ) Name one nation that does practise the policies that the IMF wants to impose on nations such as Indonesia or Singapore, outside of Switzerland?
3. ) Do you believe that England fought with China to control opium in the 19th century?
4. ) Do you believe that England made addicts out of millions of Chinese?
5. ) If England thought it was beneficial to run drugs and addict millions of Chinese, was it for purely political or monetary reasons.
6. ) With the technology and super spy agencies we have today, why is heroin and opium so available when there is only one ( 1 ) chemical that can process these two horrible drugs.
7. ) Have not we had agencies and governments that have funded off budget items with drug money?
8. ) Are there or are there not super egotists ( Elitists ) who never have enough power. Is not man capable of dastardly things in order to acquire this power?
9. ) Are there men capable of causing runs on a sovereign nations currency; George Soros for one? How about Super Governments that desire anothers assets at a cheap price?
10. ) Are there articles written years ago that predicted exactly what is happening today, and I do not mean Phsycics, that there are very powerful groups that control men's minds and pocketbooks and have the means to control and manipulate all finance?
11. ) If these Elitists want a one world government, what better way than to slowly gain control of nations and subjugate them thru the World Bank, BIS and IMF.

Ergo goes the price of Gold ( Down ) and the supremacy of Fiat Money thru which their power increases exponentially. Meanwhile, we are all exasparated ( Gold Bugs ) trying to figure out who will win. I hate to tell you they have already won because people refuse to believe that these things are possible and just the rantings of idiots.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 14:02
Mike Sheller (Panda-ing) ID#347447:
A GOOSE: I don't know anything about the suppy or availability of China Pandas for '97. If there is a mysterious non- appearance of '97s, perhaps China is more interested now in retaining her gold than receiving any kind of paper money for it. To interrupt an edition series of coins that were very successfully marketed as the Panda would indicate a very pressing immediate and strategic need to hold onto ( and accumulate ) gold in China. But I am far from knowledgeable about these coin issues and do not know the facts about current availability.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:59
SDRer__A (A. Goose: an overview of Davos 1997 is available at) ID#288155:

http://www.ftvision.com/Davos/index.htm

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:57
sweat (NBR) ID#23782:
Did anybody else think Eugene Peroni was gonna
cry Friday night. Then Kangas asks asks him about
his NEM recommendation of Aug 97. No no no,
he qualifies, we don't own any and haven't for
years. I only think of it after reading Mike
Shellers article about the G word.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:57
Miro (Just a small software glitch) ID#347457:
Just a glimpse of things to come. Small software glitch but many more to come in coming years.
http://www2.computerworld.com/home/online9697.nsf/CWFlash/980109software1BBEE

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:56
A.Goose () ID#20136:
Tolerant1 is once again on target. There many great posters on this bb. Bart is the one that deserves the most credit for allowing a forum where talented and caring FREE men and women can share their ideas and thoughts, modify and amplify those ideas under the pleasant pressure of their talented peers. My hat is off to ALL of you. I feel blessed that I am able to access you thoughts.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:54
Mike Sheller (and furthermore...) ID#347447:
re The mainstream Media and mention of the G word - Gold: It is to the credit of the free and unfettered exchange of information and opinion that is offered by the wonderful internet that those concerned receive word about the things important to them early and effectively. It was at Kitco that we observed, in 1997, the early warnings and outrageous rumors and flashes about the Bre- X debacle, long before the mainstream media picked it up. Kitcoites were buzzing about the Bungle in the Jungle for a full TWO WEEKS before the Wall Street Journal even sniffed close to the story. And, of course, by the time it hit CNBC, it was old news to goldbugs. Little wonder stuffy, pompous mainstream media types love to link the internet to pornography and underworld commerce. Their authority to dispense the news ( which, from THEM is always unbiased and objective ) is threatened as never before. And Thank Goodness for it, I say. The G word will not be mentioned on mass media until it is too late because First - they don't understand what Gold is really all about. And Second- those in positions of authority who DO understand, and are quoted and parroted by the media, will be very tight lipped about it for now, otherwise it would be like yelling FIRE in a crowded theatre. For all its warts and fist fights, this barroom called Kitco is a great place to have concerns about currencies, gold, and markets aired. A poster recently suggested Kitco as required viewing for all students of economics. A very wise, practical, and inspired educational mind ! It is at a place like Kitco that anyone ( and eventually everyone ) can shout Fire. And often as not, everyone else is already carrying a bucket with which to douse them.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:54
grant (Thanks Mike ) ID#432221:

I'm gonna see if I can scare up a few of the 24K coins tomorrow.
I had a hard time finding Eagles this past Thursday in Fort Worth. Had two dealers tell me I wouldnt find any in town.Bought some from a dealer who claimed they were from his brother's stash.The dealer I bought from before had a message on his answering machine sayin he'd be on vacationUntill around the 15th. Wonder how long he'd been plannin that vacation. Wonder how widespread tis is and why prices arent goin up.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:49
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
Mike Sheller - - You trying to get someone killed by sending them to DC for a week? Well, I suppose you could have picked Aspen. If anything marks '97 on Kitco anymore explicitly than all the foodfights, then it hasn't sunk in yet. Therefore, I nominate LGB.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:49
A.Goose () ID#20136:
http://www.teleport.com/cgi- bin/cgiwrap/raylc/ajpm/gold.cgi

For some reason - are not pasting correctly. So take the space out after the cgi- bin and the url sill work.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:47
geoffs (Doom & Gloom) ID#424187:
Cowards die many times before thier death ,
the valiant never taste of death,
but once.

Lets get positive our GOLD is starting to SHINE ,the pacific rim will learn the hard way and see the light.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:47
A.Goose () ID#20136:

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:20
grant ( Would someone kindly list the % content of the ) ID#432221:

various buuion coins
Appreciate

Grant click on the coin and you will get more information as to content etc. This will at lest give you a start.

http://www.teleport.com/cgi- bin/cgiwrap/raylc/ajpm/gold.cgi


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:45
3-cubed (Robert R. Prechter, JR. At the crest of the Tidal Wave Chapter 17 -few mor words) ID#344239:
It looks like Ptechter had an inside track when he wrote this book

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:45
2BR02B? (@Mr. Sheller) ID#263153:
I feature where that failure lies is up for grabs....

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:42
A.Goose () ID#20136:

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:35
Mike Sheller ( Bullion Koin Kontent ) ID#347447:

SDRer was asking the other day why there didn't seem to be any 1997 pandas available. Mike do you have any knowledge of why?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:41
Mike Sheller (The G word) ID#347447:
2BRO: Can you imagine ANY world leader getting up and saying ANYTHING positive about gold, or saying ANYTHING about the historical relationship of paper and gold? If anything sounding remotely like what Austrian School economists and the average Kitcoite take for granted were to come across on the mainstream media, there would be an upheaval the likes of which would be unimagineable. Gold would be off to the races and the game would be up. Gold will be mentioned once an attempt is made to either control its trade, or confiscate it. Both ploys will fail. No, no one will mention gold until the building has collapsed and the dust is settling.
And millions of citizens the world over will be the worse off for it.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:36
6pak (Anti-Labour. @ Elected Officials. Right-Left. What the hell is the difference,? ) ID#335190:
January 11, 1998
U.S. House minority leader backs Asian bailouts

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt Sunday urged Democrats in Congress to support the efforts of the Clinton administration and the IMF to stem the economic crisis sweeping across Asia.

There's no sense for us in having these countries go bankrupt. It will hurt our workers. It will hurt our markets, the Missouri Democrat said on NBC's Meet the Press.

Sen. Alfonse D'Amato, a New York Republican who heads the Senate Banking Committee, told CNN on Saturday that his panel would investigate the issue immediately after Congress reconvenes on Jan. 26.

http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/IMF- CONGRESS- GEPHARDT.html

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:35
Mike Sheller (Bullion Koin Kontent) ID#347447:
GRANT: The Canadian Maple Leaf, Austrian Philharmonic, Austrailian Nugget, China Panda are all 100% ( actually .9999 Fine ) gold. 24 karat. Others such as the Kruggerrand ( too many r's or g's ) , American Eagle, Mexican 20 pesos ( or whatever ) , are 22 karat gold. But ALL have 1 full troy ounce weight of gold content in them. The 22 karat coins have a bit of copper alloy to harden them added. As if you were going to pound nails with these things. There is no comparison for COLOR and light reflection with pure unalloyed gold. As for actual percentages, I don't have the figures handy right now.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:34
2BR02B? (@JTF) ID#263153:
2br2b: That Judy Shelton post is right on the money. It is time for a world leader to take charge, and announce that there is a problem with the world's currencies, and offer a solution. I wonder - - why did she not say anything about gold.

_______________________________________________________________


Ms. Shelton's second book is titled Money Meltdown; Restoring
Order to the Global Currency System which argues for a return to
a classical gold standard on every page, or at least a link to
a basket of commodities. Her first book was called The Coming Soviet
Collapse which promptly did. Last I saw Prof. Shelton had assumed
a professorship position in the economics department at the University
of Mexico, Mexico City in the wake of the peso collapse, advising
and consulting with government officials on monetary policy in
developing countries subject to manic- depressive capital flows.

She shows up in the popular press now and again with her take
things in her area of expertise. Over ten years I've found her
clarities stand up well in the fullness of time, with what unfolds
in the passing days. She knows her stuff root and branch.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:34
SCOUT (The Great Reckoning) ID#233298:

I've been lurking long enough. I must say that this is the best discussion
group on the entire net. Spud Master and cherrokee: Right On! The Big Boys
have brought us to the brink of economic disaster worldwide. But that's
their plan. That's the way this game has always been played. The borrower
is servant to the lender. God help those who are not ready for what's coming!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:34
tolerant1 (cherokee_A) ID#31868:
Wake up to the smell of coffee futures. The Steelers will wear them down and win the game.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:30
cherokee__A (@-------) ID#344308:

mike- - -

with- out the currency crisis, we would have already seen
the bottom....imm.......i bought a may 260 corn put about
1 1/2 months ago expecting to get out way before now...
however...with asia and her currencies taking a bath i'll
continue to ride it down...and increase by adding bean puts...

the corn farmers/producers have just harvested their 2'nd largest
crop ever....their expectations of higher prices is not going
to materialize due to the export markets drying- up.....they are not
selling.....very soon they will have to sell their huge stocks of
corn to pay their bills.......i'm looking for some limit moves down
in beans and corn very soon.......we'll see....my positions will
await a chaos and flux driven market.....volatility...an options
best friend.....
....the grains will continue down until weather
related flux gives some support......

i see this support coming in the spring and summer.......i fully expect
a major drought and heat wave to destroy a large portion of the
grains.....PLUS...the farmer's almanac is calling for a MAJOR DROUGHT
in '98 also.......hey, they are 80+% correct, and the gov't uses them for
long range fore- casts........the grains are coming down....buy cheap
puts in corn and beans......they have the greatest down- side potential..

long- term- - - - the grains will make another huge run- up before '98 is
over........i'll be there....again....

where is kap- n- kev he is the resident bean expert.....

ted- - - - - - don't you remember old housewife? that was/is shlomo also...

denver is the ticket........elway all the way to the super- bowl......

- - - calling- life- what- it- is- - - - - - - a- long- strange- trip-
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - jefferson starship- - - - - blows against the empire- -

cherokee!; ) - - - - shining- light- into- the- caverns- of- the- mind- - - - - -

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:30
fundaMETAList (Mike Sheller: Kitco All Star Voting) ID#341214:
Great idea Mike! Well, looking over what I have saved from Kitco
this past year I would have to go with:

tortfeasor, tortfeasor, Tortfeasor, Tortfeasor, TORTfeasor,
TORTfeasor, tortFEASOR, tortFEASOR, TORTFEASOR!,
TORTFEASOR!

Love his joke posts. THANKS Tort!

And I nominate LGB as runner up for being the Joke of the Day.

fundaMETAList

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:29
John Disney__A ( April in Bucharest) ID#24140:

For Miro

Good luck with K's motives - Ive tried that several times.

I predict you will get zip from him on that question. He is a

management consultant - I am King Carol of Romania.


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:28
JTF (Bart Kitner is the best choice) ID#57232:
Mike S: I would have to aggree with tolerant1. If we are to have an annual Kitco poster award, the first one should go to Bart Kitner for putting up with us - - what an ( un ) ruly bunch!
Good bye - - wife has me by the ear!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:27
SCOUT (The Great Reckoning) ID#233298:

I've been lurking long enough. I must say that this is the best discussion
group on the entire net. Spud Master and cherrokee: Right On! The Big Boys
have brought us to the brink of economic disaster worldwide. But that's
their plan. That's the way this game has always been played. The borrower
is servant to the lender. God help those who are not ready for what's coming!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:22
JTF (One last post before spouse drags me away!) ID#57232:
2br2b: That Judy Shelton post is right on the money. It is time for a world leader to take charge, and announce that there is a problem with the world's currenceis, and offer a solution. I wonder - - why did she not say anything about gold. Perhaps she did not want to panic anyone, or perhaps she was only retaining her job.
There is always a right time for this, as a wise politician once said something like: Too early is political suicide, and too late is unforgivable. Perhaps we are too early, as Kitco always seems to be there first. But - - when you know what's coming - - it sure would make sense to get moving. Next week may be more than just the warning shot across the bow.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:22
Spud Master (@JTF) ID#273112:
Yes, JTF, I too miss JIN from Malaysia. We haven't heard from him in months ( ? ) now.

I'll ask again: Would any of the readers here who reside in South East Asia please post and tell us what is going on, what you think, what you see?

Jojo in Tokyo ( ? ) Where did you go?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:20
grant (Would someone kindly list the % content of the) ID#432221:

various buuion coins
Appreciate

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:19
6pak (Unemployment @ France, Welfare Office sit-in's, LEFT-Wingers, forcing them out.) ID#335190:
January 10, 1998
Activists for jobless plan nationwide protest in France

PARIS ( AP ) ­ Jobless groups cried foul and planned a countrywide protest against the leftist government after riot police on Saturday forced demonstrators to end their monthlong sit- ins at welfare agencies across France.

It was a difficult choice for Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin who, like his German counterparts, is faced with growing anger over double- digit unemployment and the budget constraints required for France to qualify for the euro, Europe's single currency planned for 1999.

But Jospin fell behind the drive for the euro, promising Friday a lean $240 million Cdn. in aid for the jobless and ordering an end to the sit- ins at about 20 welfare agencies before dawn Saturday.

Jospin's jobs programs have so far failed to slash the unemployment rate, and he wants a law establishing a 35- hour work week to help create more job openings. Free- market liberals are instead calling for deeper cuts in heavy employment taxes and a loosening of strict job rules.
http://www.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE- wire.France- Jobless- Protests.html


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:19
paddy (contest) ID#225242:

Cole for logic and education
Puetz for balls and direction
Donald for links
Vronsky for posting the essays
and Mike S who was slammed and then befriended

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:19
tolerant1 (Mike Sheller) ID#31868:
I have to change the vote a little, sorry. Too many fine posters to choose from. I nominate not the posters but the stage upon which everyone posts.

Hats off to Bart for providing a place where so many great thoughts can be read by so many.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:18
Ted (Steeler coach Bill----------------) ID#364147:
Coward ( jut- jaw ) is a jerk~~~~~~~~~~~~

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:12
JTF (Kitco Poster of the year! Really do have to log off, even if I am having fun!) ID#57232:
Mike Sheller: What's wrong with Philadelphia? That was WC Fields favorite prize- winning city!
My serious vote is for sharefin - - as his graphics posts and poetry are always first- rate!
My not so serious vote is to that mysterious poster who proposed that the Whales that Ted could not find went to visit Aurator, and thus destabilized the earth's orbit! I think that was Mooney who started that highly amusing thread.

By the way, did you hear about the large earthquake in China last night - - along the Great Wall? And a full moon tomorrow!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:09
2BR02B? (@ the good Dr. Shelton) ID#263153:

Currency in Chaos: The Human Toll

By Judy Shelton

Sunday, December 21, 1997; Page C07

In times of crisis, immediate action is necessary. A financial

crisis in particular requires government officials and institutional

authorities to move quickly to assure investors that a potential

runaway situation is under control and that adequate measures

are being taken to contain its impact.

That explains why representatives from the International

Monetary Fund are making appearances in various trouble spots

around the world, from Seoul to Moscow, offering emergency

funding and bailout packages. The goal is to prevent a panic

mentality from taking hold and sparking the mass hysteria that

leads to devastating financial meltdown. Money and markets rely

on investor confidence; psychology is important.

But beyond soothing rhetoric aimed at preventing the exodus of

private capital from emerging markets, what is being done with

regard to the fundamental problem of international monetary

disorder? What is the IMF, or the Group of Seven industrialized

nations - - or for that matter anyone of political standing in

Washington - - doing to address the underlying threat of global

currency chaos, with its frightening implications for integrated

financial markets and world economic performance?

So far the scapegoat for turmoil in Asia and elsewhere has

been the banking sector: loose lending policies, cronyism, insider

dealing, political corruption. These practices are cited as bearing

primary responsibility for the sudden impoverishment of citizens in

a growing list of nations. Certainly, providing commercial bank credits

to marginal business ventures is no recipe for long- turn economic

prosperity. But something far more dramatic is occurring. Currencies

are plummeting; money itself has succumbed to the meltdown syndrome.

Since early October, South Koreans have watched helplessly

as the value of the won - - and with it their lifetime savings and

personal wealth - - has dropped more than 41 percent against the

dollar. For Indonesians, the monetary shock from currency free

fall is the result of a 53 percent decline in the rupiah since

July 1. The Thai baht has lost 44 percent of its value, the

Philippine peso 35 percent and the Malaysian ringgit 33 percent

over the same period.

Numbers, though, don't begin to tell the story. When money loses

its meaning, the human toll goes beyond jaggedly plunging lines on

charts and dry analytical discussion. Money is supposed to provide

the measure, to serve as the unit of account for the most personal

economic decisions faced by individuals: Should I spend or save,

consume today or invest for the future?

To save money is to believe there will be a future - - it is the

stuff of dreams. Money buys houses, pays for education, starts new

businesses. Money meltdown is disorienting, not just in terms of what

academics describe as economic dislocations but for the dislocations

in human hearts that feel betrayed for having believed that money earned

through their own hard work and diligence would stand up as a valid

store of value.

Retrospective analysis of financial factors can never fully

capture the sickening sensation of a currency crash. In the end,

the miscalculations of economists and mistakes of bankers fade

away as mere technical details. It is the political leaders who

are held responsible.

The integrity of a nation's money represents an implicit promise

between the government and the governed, even when its value seems up

for grabs in global currency markets. To demean the money is to derail

the hopes of an entire population. Leaders cannot recover from such a

breach of duty.

That is why even the most gifted bureaucrats at the IMF are

incapable of preventing the current monetary crisis from escalating

should its momentum begin to reach global proportions. As fear of the

future starts to encroach on the human psyche, bold political leadership

takes on far greater importance than technical expertise.

Now is the time to lay out a plan for restoring order to the global

currency system. Ever since the United States walked away from the Bretton

Woods international monetary agreement in August 1971, there has been a

leadership vacuum with regard to this critical aspect of the global economy.

President Clinton has expressed his desire to leave a lasting imprint in

support of free trade for the next century. With developing countries

beginning to believe that the promise of democratic capitalism has all

been a cruel joke to rob them of their wealth and dignity, the challenge

is there. He has an opportunity now to initiate the process for establishing

new currency arrangements aimed at achieving a stable international

monetary order consistent with open global markets.

The defeat of the president's attempt to gain fast track trade

authority dealt a blow to free trade advocates on both sides of the

aisle. But while efforts to reduce tariffs should still be pursued,

the impact of tariffs on trade flows pales in comparison with the

effects of currency downturns. When every nation struck by monetary

turmoil seeks to utilize competitive depreciation to salvage its

economic future - - flooding wealthier nations with cheap exports

- - something has to give.

At some point, domestic suppliers in the United States and

Europe will clamor for protection from what they rightly perceive

as unfair price competition. The real threat to the global trade

system is thus the prevailing free- for- all approach to currency

relations that engenders monetary nationalism and ultimately

fosters a protectionist backlash.

The solution is to set up an orderly international monetary system

that would permit all nations to compete in the global marketplace based

on a common unit of account. Should the dollar be the anchor for such a

system? Would it be a burden or a privilege to serve as the key currency

nation once again? Hopefully, the knowledge gained from the Bretton Woods

experience would furnish a guide for avoiding past mistakes; any new set

of monetary arrangements would have to expand responsibility to other

nations to ensure global monetary stability. But there can be no question

that the United States would play a central role. Indeed, it is the only

nation with the requisite economic strength and political power to credibly

issue the call for an international conference to focus on the need for

global monetary reform based on shared values and objectives.

In the absence of presidential leadership, as the currency carnage

rages on, our trade partners have little more to cling to than speculation

that Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin is secretly drafting a plan to deal

with the spreading financial turmoil. This week, German Finance Minister

Theo Waigel met with both Rubin and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan

in Washington; the crisis in Asia undoubtedly dominated their discussion.

Clearly, these men represent stature and competence in the highest

international financial circles. Nevertheless, if the global situation

continues to unravel, it remains an open question whether those

qualifications and credentials will prove sufficient to prevent worldwide

monetary breakdown and its disastrous economic consequences.

Judy Shelton is an economist and author.

Copyright 1997 The Washington Post Company


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:04
JTF (Logging off -- Interesting Comments about paper money -- Jin where are you?) ID#57232:
SpudMaster: I enjoy your posts, even if we are like Siskel and Ebert on movies - - ever watch their faces on TV while they compare notes?

It is a paper war out there - - a propaganda war that has been going on for decades. And now the proponents are believing the deceptions that they have created. What is unfortunate is that to this day most humans on this planet still do not realize what we are inexorably heading for. However, the SEAsians - - much better savers than we - - now know somthing is wrong with their financial systems. And they are regretting buying more gold when they would have been able to. They will be buying more gold as soon as they can afford to.

Jin - - where are you? Are you alive and lurking? I hope so!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:03
Mike Sheller (Today's Wheaties) ID#347447:
CHEROKEE: Now that I've got you here, what is your take on Wheat?

Still bearish, or a bottom coming in soon? I think after it settles, there's a buck in this market the long side in '98. What you say?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:02
Miro (@JTF) ID#347457:
JTF, your observation Wouldn't it be hilarious to find
our these these very same agents were quietly buying
gold bullion/gold coins and selling their equity
investments, but at the same time continuing to post
how great the US markets are?
would not surprise me, except, this is not good forum to push message US markets are great - a very few people on this forum believe in paper market.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:00
Jung (a quote from imf site ...) ID#237164:
The quota subscriptions, or membership fees referred to earlier, constitute the largest source of money at the IMF's disposal. Quotas are now in theory worth about $210 billion, although in practice this sum is deceptively large. Because member countries pay 75 percent of their quotas in domestic money, and because most national currencies are rarely in demand outside the countries issuing them, approximately half of the money on the IMF's balance sheets cannot be used.

I did not find a date on the document ... so I don't know if the $250 B
is a current number ...

I have not found what is used to pay the remaining 25% subscription.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:59
Mike Sheller (New Kitco Kontest) ID#347447:
Well, not actually a contest, lads and lassies, but to lighten up an otherwise restful Sunday, how about it being time for THE ANNUAL KITCO ALL- STAR VOTING. Yes, friends, it's time for Kitcoities the world over ( and on other planets too ) to vote for the POSTER OF THE YEAR for 1997.

Cast your ballot now. Was it ANOTHER and his thought- provoking, apocalyptic scenario that had Kitcoites wringing their grey matter trying to decide how much gold equalled how much oil? Was it RJ with his fabulous blend of short fiction and short trading? Was it Hepcat, who was so irritating that he was run out of Kitcotown on a rail?. Was it Tortfeasor, who kept us laughing as gold continued its ugly decline? Was it Ted, whose studied indifference, always mellow mindset ( except for a few controversial sports comments ) , and nation- hopping, held us spellbound day after day? Was it Cherokee, with his cryptic, but subliminally enlightening spirit- speak from beyond the hills? Was it Nick ( Sharefin ) with his Dad's poetry, some of the sublimest, earthiest, evocative, occult verses one can come across these days? Or perhaps Steve Puetz for his bold and fearless prediction ( s ) of immininent market meltdown, and his warnings about DEflation ahead when many goldbugs were looking for the big bubble instead? And there are many more. Vote for YOUR favorite KITCO POSTER BOY ( or GIRL ) OF THE YEAR. All entries become the property of Kitco Online Promotions. First prize is a trip to Washington DC for a week. Second prize is a trip to Washington DC for 2 weeks. You must be over 18 to enter. No purchase neccessary.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:57
6pak (Right-Left @ WHY? must We The People, bail out BANKER's?) ID#335190:
January 11, 1998
Right- left alliance in U.S. Congress to take on IMF

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - An alliance of conservatives and liberals is taking shape in Congress to block billions of dollars for the International Monetary Fund, money that could be used to help calm financial panic sweeping Asia.

Lawmakers and lobbyists say the coalition aims to defeat the Clinton administration's request to give the IMF nearly $19 billion to boost its resources, drained by multibillion- dollar bailouts for South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand.

Coalition members say they will also propose legislation to change the way the IMF gets its funding and to keep President Clinton from offering huge loans to countries in financial trouble without approval from Congress.

The coalition is taking shape as concern mounts about the contagious effect of the Asian crisis. Over the weekend, Clinton sent experts headed by Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers to Asia to assess the deepening instability.

The right and left are up in arms over the IMF, and working together, said Marijke Torfs, a director with the environmental group Friends of the Earth, which is sponsoring a Jan. 15 meeting in Washington of conservative and liberal critics of IMF policies.

The right is saying: Why interfere with the markets? The left is saying: These ( IMF ) programs are going to be subsidized by low wages and the over- exploitation of natural resources, Torfs said. We will fight together.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/IMF- CONGRESS.html

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:54
JTF (Have to log off!) ID#57232:
Miro: Just had a thought! Lets say we do have some paid agents to disrupt Kitco. Wouldn't it be hilarious to find our these these very same agents were quietly buying gold bullion/gold coins and selling their equity investments, but at the same time continuing to post how great the US markets are?

No reason they can't profit from two sources at once!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:49
JTF (Gold for Oil in a bankrupt society?) ID#57232:
Allen ( USA ) : As always your posts are thought provoking. I have a new use for those empty oil tankers when they return for more oil - - they could easily transport the gold necessary for payment. Very practical!
And - - any country unable to pay in gold would be looking for other sources of energy. Only problem is - - Fort Knox would be empty in a few months, given our expensive appetite for oil.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:49
cherokee__A (@-----what-to-do----what-to-do..........) ID#344308:

asia's action tonight?

worst 1 day decline ever for the nikkei
worst 1 day decline ever for the hang seng
ditto the rest of their group....australia is fixing to join the melee..
in a big way......her strengths have become her weakness...the a$ is
fixing to slam down tam bien.........

remember....our market is very strong ( internals ) and the asian
contagion will not impact the us markets!!!

WHO SAID THAT? WHO? the dumb @sses with their heads in the sand
that have ridden the s& p for the last 7 years.......yes....they are
the resident experts.......with their ferrari's and infinity's....
there will be no bonuses on wall street this year......their sports
cars will have 'for sale' signs after the repo man comes- a- callin....

the pendelum is fixing to cut deeply, and with each successive cut,
deeper still........the drops of white and red corpuscles will form
rivulets, then streams, then wild rivers; and finally, a red tsunami
with the energy to innundate the entire world for many a fort- night....

the equal and opposite reaction has come- a- knocking......don't answer
the door......they are prescient and take no prisoners......

the rules are fixing to change........the carbo- earth- anout taskmasters
are being relieved of duty for negligence and greed.......their
malfeasance will reverberate around the globe as krackatowa did when
she exploded.....

one day the net will go down for good.......better have a shortwave
for communication.......the gov't will not allow what we have now....
too much information is dangerous to those who must take drastic
measures......information will be totally regulated....it is coming....
self- suffiency and internal strength will stem the tide....until those
with- out, find- out YOU have what they now need........best to play the part of the peopleo........

loose lips sink ships.......shoot from the hip, aim for their lips....
hard to tell lies when one is lip- less........


buying july 5750 ( $150.00 ) and 5500 ( $75.00 ) soybean puts monday....
corn 230 puts looking good also.........very cheap..good investment..imm

'another' big trader- - added to the gumby files...where's the snow ski's?

cherokee!; ) - - better- beware- the- silver- bear- - - - - - he- cometh-




Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:47
Miro (Karlito, LGB, Conspiracy, what will gold do?) ID#347457:
My dear members of gold invoked depression therapy group ;- ) I see that again we have conspiracy and paid agents theme floating around, just like we had it when Hepcat was around. I think it’s not surprising. We are searching for any good news and justification why gold should shine again and we would be able to make up for our losses ( or just add to our gains through joining the ride up ) .

However, by rejecting opposing views, even if coming from paper bull who does not know any better, we would be making decisions on incomplete information because these opposing views represent thinking of paper bull and give us some knowledge how will bull ( and significant amount of money it controls ) react to current events. For that reason I don’t mind their posting ( though discussion becomes kind of annoying ) .

Though, I do have to question Karlito,s motives for participating on this forum. While LGB has stated his interest in PM market, and through actively investing in PM, Karlito never did that. By his admission, he is a high level consultant with one of the big six accounting companies, and knowing this business, one does not have too much spare time on his hands to participate on some goofy goldbug forum and engage in discussion where he is subject of personal abuse, just to educate lost souls.
Maybe he enjoys to be involved in controversial discussions, but one would assume that he can find enough opportunities to do that in his own circles. Karlito, I would really like to know what is your interest in this forum that leads you to waste your precious time. If you don’t invest in PM ( and based on your views this type of investment is throwing money away ) , why do you waste your time ( valued at a few hundred $US per hour ) on this forum? It really puzzles me, and knowing answer to that question would help me to judge your posts much better.

As far as future movement of gold goes, I have to agree with Old Gold posting that until we get over Asia’s crisis, I don’t see too many good news for gold. Money will flow to plug the Asia hole not to gold. Only after the Asia situation is stabilized, and things are sorted out ( for better or worse ) , market may explode. In between, I would expect more downward pressure, which will eventually help in upward movement. However, what do I know, I am just one more lost soul searching for answers, hoping that one day this Kitco education will pay off.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:47
Jung (www.imf.org) ID#237164:
The site contains a lot of material ... What I have
gathered so far is ... sdr is weighted about % 40 in
us$, % 20 in mark, and % 17 in yen ... but this seems
to be stale info on their site.

in any event, it is mostly in us$

I can not find what assets back the fund.

If someone has a short description of what the IMF is,
would like to know. My mental model of the IMF is
at the current time only vauge images.
.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:45
tolerant1 (Pete) ID#31868:
Legalize all drugs and by Executive Order of the President all green US money is to be turned in with a deadline of 90 days for new blue US money.

Create a new tax base, stop squandering resources which are ineffective and find all the criminals as they invent ways to turn in all that hidden money.

The reason they will not do it. The politician is the biggest criminal scum on the planet. Period.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:42
JTF (Re: IMF) ID#57232:
pete: I doubt that post about the IMF is correct. However, what worries me is the kind of stuff SDRer has been posting in the last 24 hours. Drug money was laundered on a grand scale not too long ago - - legitimized by members of our own government to do an end run on congress. BCI may not have been the only place where money laundering occurs. Also - - big corporations may want to trade large sums of money discretely so that their competitors do not know what is happening. EG, go to a money launderer, and the amount you are willing to pay for the business relates to the confidentiality that you need.

We just need to hope that none of these hidden agencies gets enough wealth to upset the world's applecart.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:39
Spud Master (The Dow Ponzi Scheme) ID#273112:
To all you Baby- Boomers & Yuppies out there who thing you have wealth by virute of price of The Dow:

90 million of you have chased up the value of a few million pieces of paper. It created no wealth - only inflation in the perceived value of those few peices of paper.

When even a FEW of you attempt to realize that perceived wealth - the same thing will happen as the run- up - only in reverse.

Warning: Those like EB, LGB and Karlito have been taking their runup out NOW and likely buying gold. You Boomers & Yuppies will be the proverbial bag- holders. Think about it.

Think damn hard.

Think f**king damn hard. You are about to be raped.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:33
JTF (Cycles in Stocks/DOW) ID#57232:
sas: Just saw your 5:21 complements of Allen ( USA ) . I agree with you - - it is ludicrous to assume such cycles have ended. I posted something like that to LGB, and to his credit, he actually admitted I was correct. But - - his argument was that we can push the envelope a little more.
LGB is right about one thing - - gloomers and doomers abound - - there is always someone saying that the markets will go down, and the odds are about 3:1 that they won't. What I like is Trader Vic's approach of calculating the odds of a market rally continuing, base on how long it has already existed. And - - this is without SEAsia, and the financial contagion that is now spreading around the world. I don't think Trader Vic knows how to quantitate that - - but if he was here to post - - the last place he would be right now would be bullish on the DOW.
Did you notice that Warren Buffet is rumored to have sold his $2 billion zero coupon bonds, and that a member of the trading firm he associates with is buying silver? Just rumor - - but it makes sense, doesn't it?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:29
A.Goose () ID#20136:
Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:23
Spud Master ( ...but it is the End of the Beginning ) ID#273112:

Powerful call to arms.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:25
Pete (JTF-Re: IMF) ID#22451:
If this quote is correct, then the IMF has no other option.

The problem of drugs has already ceased to be dealt with simply as one of public health or a social problem. It has turned into something more seriuos and far reaching which affects our sovereignty; a problem of national security, because it strikes at the independence of a nation. Drugs in all their manifistations of production, commercialization and consumption, de- naturalizes us by injuring our ethical, religeous and political life, our historic, economic, and republican values.

This is precisely the way the BIS and the IMF are operating. Let me say without hesitation that both these banks are nothing more than bully boy clearing houses for the drug trade. The BIS undermines any country that the IMF wants to sink by setting up ways and means for the easy outflow of flight capital. Nor does BIS recognize nor make any distinction when it comes down to what is flight capital and what is laundered drug money.

The BIS operates on gangster lines. If a country will not submit to asset stripping by the IMF, then it says in effect, Right, then we will break you by means of the huge cache of narco- dollars we are holding. It is easy to see why gold was demonitized and substituted with the paper dollar as the world's reserve currency. It is not easy to blackmail a country holding gold reserves.

MY COMMENTS
Is this not what is happening in Asia today? Hong Kong dumping tons of gold which is used in the purchase of drugs onto the market and then repatrioting these dollars to the USA?

Asia was considered a modern miracle not too long ago. Has it really changed that much. The pundits will come up with excuses galore why Asia's currencies are collapsing, save the real reason. Any system using a fractional reserve is subject to a run on its currency if some- one holding huge amnts. starts a run on their banking system. Would not the good old USA be in the same position if the BIG BOYS wanted to withdraw their dollars out of USA banks and send say to the planet PLUTO?

Food for thought!!!



Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:24
Allen(USA) (Thoughts about ANOTHER(THOUGHTS!) thoughts (I think..)) ID#246224:
Again, IMO, Another is saying:

The seller dictates the price and the medium of pricing.

If the paper market is not working, and if the seller wants physical gold, then the seller will get physical gold. If the seller ( of oil ) wants to give oil away for .../oz gold, then everyone will jump at it.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:23
Spud Master (...but it is the End of the Beginning) ID#273112:
Fragmented, isolated heretofore, each of us around the world now proffer a piece of the Puzzle that is this world- wide scheme of the Federal Reserve, Central Banks and governments.

We are watching assembled here, on Kitco, the image, the sorry, shoddy lie of false prosperity created by fiat money, paper- promises that Those in Power never had any intent of delivering. It is a con. It is a Ponzi Scheme of global proportions. Those who run it are conmen, cowards and criminals of the highest order.

Their Scheme has been saved time & time again by one or more gimmicks: IRAs, 401Ks, the IRS Tax Code, Savings& Loan bailouts, banks too big to fail, the Mexican bank bailout, dumping gold to drive down its price, IMF shuttling confidence money around...

Now, their Scheme is finished. Unraveling. Indonesia, Korea, Thailand, Sinapore, Hong Kong, the Philipines. It will spread to the next tier of weak countries: Mexico, Brazil, Italy, Argentina, Spain...

The War is Free Men and Women against the faceless manipulators at the IMF, the FED, the BIS, the Central Banks of the world who promoted false money, backed by debt- slavery of free people, for their own private gain and vainglory. They have deemed themselves our Masters in their minds.

We who back gold, tangible, uncounterfittable money are their mortal enemies. We, through the honesty of a tangible money, would end their power through printed paper promises and lies. Gold can only be controled by the individual who holds it. Paper is created at the pleasure of those who control the Fed, the world's banks. From this they have derived control over us all.

The War is being fought in the minds of the people world- wide. It is one of Confidence; destruction of the carefully crafted confidence in worthless paper money. In the minds of the people of South East Asia, we are winning. Those citizens have watched the Bat, the Ringgat, the Won, the Yen collapse upwards of 40% now know! They saved themselves, if at all buy having bought gold - or US$. But the US$ is backed by nothing more their their own worthless paper!

While the paper- confidence- pushers controled the Free Press, television, the movies - they could control confidence in their worthless paper lies! But now the Internet brings us together to compare notes, to see that WE ARE NOT ALONE!

Governments and their banks would be the masters of us all - fight back! Now! Buy Gold! Shake the system to its knees. It is a house of cards that has to collapse - must collapse if we are to be free.

If you love Freedom, then fight! Turn in those false, backed- by- slavery worthless Federal Reserve Notes for tangible ANYTHING! Gold, Silver, new automobiles, land ... just do it! Else, we will be slaves *forever*! Yes, we will have to build a fresh, clean government - but that is the price we must pay for not having been vigilant as Thomas Jefferson warned us, for being decieved by the smooth- talking con men who came to fill of governments.

South East Asians - reject the lies of paper money - buy Gold and topple the corrupt thugs and confidence men who strut in power & vainglory, while you struggle to feed your children, and find a job!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:23
paddy (steep hill ahead) ID#225242:

I say Mr. Peutz, looks to me like it's finally time for you to

drive this bus. Seems the road is as you predicted, steep and icy.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:21
ROR (Ted) ID#35767:
I tried to register for Caper Chat was unable. How do you do it?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:20
Allen(USA) (@05:21,sas re: gold verses DOW & all) ID#246224:
Best point here.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:14
xau5 (PGU) ID#201131:
Saw where the PGU lenders bought back in the gold shorts and hedges that PGU had. The big question now is whose money is it? It looks like the banks have it but I bet the other general creditors will sue to try and get it back. The lower gold goes the more the lenders of gold will have to worry about getting there gold back.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:13
tolerant1 (TED) ID#31868:
The Steelers will beat the Broncos. Sorry.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:09
fundaMETAList (LGB) ID#341214:
LGB: There's a new guy on the board that you need to save from our
clutches. I'm surprised you haven't already posted to him about the
dangers of taking advice from those on this board. His name is
Grant.

Want to hear something funny? I actually thought this guy might be
you. He got on here yesterday asking for advice about buying gold
with credit cards and emptying his 401k ( by Monday, no less ) to buy
coins and other gold related investments while gold is still in an
obvious down trend. After listening to him for awhile and knowing
your penchant for castigating those on this board for their
recommendations I got to thinking that you might be setting up a
fake identity that's going to be hurt badly short term by making those
moves. He would later come back and tell us as much and you
would then have a perfect example of how people are destroyed
by taking the advice given here. I've seen this chain of events occur
on this board before.

So I asked him flat out if he was you. Well, he got all flustered, I tell
you. Seemed pretty upset for a new fella. He even resorted to the
type of name twisting you love to deal in and changed his story a bit.
Earlier he had stated I'm gonna bet alot on the the wisdom I've
gained reading your and others post's on this site in the last *few
months*. In one of his responses to me he set me straight on that
subject by stating Ive watched your postings ,as well as the rest,
for *about two weeks now*. When all was said and done I
obviously realized this guy wasn't you and told Grant as much.
Funny, huh? I obviously have way too much free time on my hands.

And Grant, if you are lurking, I think Lurker 777 gave some of the
best advice at his Jan 10 20:13 post. As for me I would suggest you
take a deep breath, do NOT make any PM credit card purchases
and, perhaps, start moving 1% or 2% of your assets a month into
one or more of the many forms of gold but concentrate on the
physical. Junk silver is good too. You need to further your
education on PM's ( which Kitco is the best place for, bar none ) and
wait for a definite turn up in gold ( come up with your own definition
of this ) . LGB and I would add that silver is a great place to be but,
with the exception of a junk silver purchase, you might want to wait
a while there. Silver is in the midst of deciding an important short
term trend. If you are nervous about your stock market holdings
( and who wouldn't be ) is it possible to move them into cash while
you are contemplating these gut wrenching changes in your
investments?

LGB, better go set that guy straight afore he hurts hisself.

fundaMETAList

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:04
JTF (Rule #1 -- Bend like a reed with the market trend) ID#57232:
baba_A: I like your rules!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:02
JTF (Mexico) ID#57232:
Crystal Ball: Thanks for your input on your trading. What you are doing makes sense. I do not have the time to do what you are doing, and I am still new at options. But the basic premise is quite clear, isn't it? Mexico's index will go down much faster than any US index.
Who knows - - maybe the PPT will step in and prop up the US markets one more time! I wonder what they will have to promise this time to get willing private funds - - money insurance?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:01
baba__A (JTF) ID#249147:

Thanks for your comment. I would suggest that the rules never change ( although market prices certainly do! ) and that it is better to follow them without thinking. The best rule is not to fight the trend - whatever it is. I have about a dozen rules that I follow and will post them if there is interest.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 11:58
tolerant1 (STUDIO_R) ID#31868:
Everything else aside, I think that what Another is discussing is the future/option/loan area. Gold will not stop trading in other areas. Mining stocks will not be taken off the market. Other than that he/she/it is just somebody/somebody's slapping some crap on the wall like everybody else here, if it sticks, it sticks, if it doesn't, it doesn't.

Plain and simple, no more, no less. No matter where you go, there you are.

Gulp, a shot of tequila at ya

One last thought. I look at all the posts here minus two in the same way. I figure if what is posted stays with me for a few days and makes sense, then I take a further look at it. If after a few more days it crystallizes in my mind and there are no cloudy spots I re- establish my thinking to take whatever it is into account.

We never really know anything, we do have brief periods wherein what we think we know continues to happen in the same way until it is changed/altered and is then assimilated into what we consider now at a later point as that which we know.

Know = time x introduction of new








Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 11:54
JTF (ANOTHER and the gold meltdown) ID#57232:
Mikey: I think ANOTHER IS talking about an explosive gold corner worsened by the trading of gold with derivatives. Virtually impossible.

My guess is that the price of gold will rise slowly enough for the financial system to remain intact, and the gold stocks will do very nicely.

One thing to remember is that ANOTHER talks in simple, graphic terms. The market is not that simple. Also - - the Central Banks are not going to stop trading gold altogether - - they can use that same derivative leverage to do damage control. I just hope they remember to push when they should push, and pull when they should pull. If they get out of sync with those powerful derivative trades, heaven help us all!

I think the real threat to the world's financial systm is not an explosive gold corner, but the loss of a few key word banks, a convulsion in the dollar, followed by the demise of the markets - - that is where the danger is to our precious metal equity investments. ( Yes - - I do have some money still long on gold - about 1% of my assets, but the vast majority is parked in short term treasuries ) .

You can expect gold to go down on monday if the market tanks. Can't let anyone escape to gold, can we?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 11:41
JTF (Indonesia and the IMF -- a fiasco!) ID#57232:
powmain: If the IMF continues to act the way it has been in Indonesia - - demanding a balanced budget, privatized corporations, etc - - all things that cannot happen overnight - - then the only action left is to send in the troops to keep the peace. What a sorry state of affairs we are in, when the IMF bandaid only works when the country involved is essentially fiscally sound, and only needs a cash infusion.

I'm not saying Indonesia - - or other SEAsian countries asking for help are blameless - - - I'm just saying that it is ludicrous for the IMF to behave as if they can actually accomplish something. One thing one should never do is promise to help, and then fail to accomplish anything. That's sort of like the poor policeman that steps in to stop the feud between husband and wife - - and they turn on him. There is one difference - - you cannot blame that policeman for trying - - but the IMF should have known what was coming! I wonder, could one compare the IMF's actions to FEMA refusing to give aid after a hurricane until everyone agrees to putting hurricane clips on their ( virtually demolished ) houses? The commotion from the victims would be deafening! Is the Indonesia situation really that different?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 11:41
Ted (ANOTHER is full of SH1T) ID#364147:
ditto Big ( little ) Trader~~~~~~~~

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 11:39
Ted (Thrown out of the Cape Breton discussion group(CaperChat)) ID#364147:
For NO damn reason!!!- - - - GO 'NINERS'....Down with the steel crew

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 11:36
Mikey (Question to 'ANOTHER') ID#347332:
TO ANOTHER;
Your comment on Sun Nov 23 1997 10:51 say;

Many gold stocks will rise with gold and most people will hold for gains. But they will
never see them converted to value. If the gold markets lock before they reach $1,000 , all
mining stocks will be consumed in the paper fire. A sad day for many.

My question is if gold goes way up, mining stocks will
piggyback correct? not converted to value? I dont comprehend.


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 11:36
MoReGoLd (@CAMDESSUS TO THE RESCUE...............) ID#348286:
Sunday January 11, 5:05 am Eastern Time

FOCUS- Fate of Indonesia markets in IMF, US hands

By Mantik Kusjanto

JAKARTA, Jan 11 ( Reuters ) - Indonesian financial markets face their toughest test ever this week as sceptical foreign investors seek a clear indication that the government of President Suharto is committed to economic reforms.

The fate of the markets rests with the United States and the International Monetary Fund, which are sending senior officials here to ensure the reforms are followed through and bring Indonesia back from the brink of economic chaos, dealers and analysts said.

Currency dealers said the outcome of talks between an IMF delegation now in Jakarta and a U.S. team likely to arrive on Monday would dictate the short- term trend in the rupiah, which plunged to an all- time low of 11,000 to the dollar last week. It recovered in weekend trading to around 9,600.

The currency was around 2,400 just six months ago.

``We hope the arrival of these high- ranking officials will inject fresh confidence in the government and in the rupiah,'' one chief treasurer with a local bank said.

``The shock of the plunge in the rupiah has sent world markets reeling, including Wall Street. The depth of the crisis has alarmed the United States. We need external assistance to revive confidence in the rupiah,'' he said.

But a senior Asian diplomat said much would hinge on what the officials said about Indonesia's economic reforms after their meetings.

``If they come out of the meetings to say they are convinced Indonesia is fully committed to reform, it would have a positive effect,'' the diplomat said.

The visitors were expected to insist Suharto's government demonstrate it was not backsliding on commitments made to the IMF in return for a $43 billion bail- out plan in October.

IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer arrived in Jakarta on Sunday and Michel Camdessus, managing director of the Fund, was expected on Wednesday.

U.S. President Bill Clinton has sent Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers to the region this weekend. He should arrive in Jakarta on Monday.

Whatever sentiment prevails on the rupiah would impact on the stock market, where the composite index fell just over 16 percent last week to end at 343 points, brokers said.

But the chief treasurer said fresh questions over President Suharto's political future had added another perplexing dimension to what was previously a monetary crisis.

Indonesia's best- known opposition leader Megawati Sukarnoputri called on Saturday for Suharto to quit at the end of his term in March. It is the strongest public challenge the 76- year- old leader has received in his 32 years in power.

President Clinton underscored the seriousness with which the world views Indonesia's crisis with a call to Suharto on Friday asking him to ensure the IMF reform programme was followed.

According to newspaper reports, the IMF wanted a surplus of one percent of gross domestic product in the 1998/99 budget. But the budget announced by Suharto last Tuesday was balanced at 133.49 trillion rupiah, an increase of 32.1 percent in revenues and expenditures.

Suharto agreed with Clinton's assessment and appeared to react swiftly. On Saturday he announced the delay or review of 15 major infrastructure projects worth billions of dollars.

Significantly, his close associates and children are associated with most of the projects, and it appeared to be an attempt to deflect criticism that cronyism had weakened implementation of reforms.

``This should be very positive for the markets,'' the diplomat said. But the chief treasurer said the crisis seemed to have taken on a complex scope which could not be resolved easily by token gestures.

``I think the markets will wait for the outcome,'' he said, referring to the review of the reform programme by the IMF.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 11:36
Ted (If ya believe in 'Another'...ya----------(ain't he fukin mysterious)) ID#364147:
Must believe in the 'tooth fairy' too- - - get real!! - - - and GO BRONCOS!!!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 11:31
MoReGoLd (@ANALYST PREDICTS MAJOR MELTDOWN: ``I don't think anything can stop a freefall in Hong Kong.) ID#348286:
Sunday January 11, 8:28 am Eastern Time

Regent - Hang Seng may fall to 4,000 - paper

LONDON, Jan 11 ( Reuters ) - Regent Pacific Group Ltd's chairman Jim Mellon said Hong Kong's Hang Seng index could halve from current levels before it recovers, the Sunday Times newspaper said on Sunday.

``I hate picking movements in indices but I would predict the Hang Seng could fall to 4,000 or 5,000 before it bottoms,'' the paper quoted Mellon from the Hong Kong- based global emerging markets investment house as having said.

According to the Sunday Times, Mellon also said: ``I don't think anything can stop a freefall in Hong Kong. There will be one more downward spiral involving the collapse of the Hong Kong market and the Hong Kong dollar.''

The Hang Seng lost 3.89 percent ( 359.89 points ) last Friday to close at 8,894.64. It ended 1997 at 10,722.76, and has thus lost just over 17 percent since.

The Hong Kong dollar, by comparison, has been held within a few cents of 7.75 to the dollar throughout the 1990s, or time immemorial in forex market terms.

It is the only Asian currency which has not lost significant ground against the U.S. dollar in the past six months.

Regent Pacific, which was floated last May, concentrates on fund management, corporate finance, corporate investment and security brokerage.

It also provides investment management and advisory services in emerging markets to institutional and professional investors worldwide.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 11:28
JTF (The rules keep changing!) ID#57232:
baba_A: I like the way you think. If the market behavior changes periodically ( we know it does ) , and we know we have cycles in virtually everythin, then the only way to survive is to bend like a reed in the wind. Thus, anyone who rigidly adheres to a fixed set of rules will be eventually uprooted and blown over.
As I like to say, the true sign of intelligence is an inquireing ( sp? ) mind that never stops learning. Rigid rules are admittedly easier to follow, and you don't need to think - - but I plan to survive, and I think many Kitcoites have a similar approach.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 11:27
MoReGoLd (@ASIA) ID#348286:
powmain: Of course, every US talking head is trying to downplay the reality of a possible ( impending? ) meltown, and encouraging the
mutual fund crowd to STAY THE COURSE.
The problem is the COURSE may be a major bear market and international banking and currency crisis.
They may as well repeat the old song Don't worry, be Happy......

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 11:19
MoReGoLd (@Indonesia on the brink ---- CLINTON said 2 weeks ago JUST ANOTHER GLITCH IN MY PANTS) ID#348286:
Moratorium for Indonesia?

Analysts ponder what it could mean for the market and the country

Indonesia on the brink - Jan. 9, 1998

HONG KONG ( Reuters ) - Indonesia was the talk of Asian debt markets on Friday, with traders and analysts pondering what a debt moratorium could mean for the country and for the market.
Speculation has been rife that Indonesia might announce as early as this weekend a moratorium on the repayment of debt in a bid to settle its currency markets and buy some time for its embattled corporations.
Opinions on whether Indonesia should take such a dramatic step ran the gamut, with some analysts saying such action would be a terrible mistake and others applauding the idea.
If Indonesia imposed a debt moratorium...it would result in a major flow of capital out of Indonesia and ( the country ) would be cut off from access to the capital markets for many years to come, said Jason Brown, managing director of fixed income research at Bear Stearns Asia in Hong Kong.
Daniel Lian, head of Asian market research at ANZ Bank Singapore, acknowledged that Indonesia would pay a price in terms of market access, but that the country would reap the rewards of a salvaged economy.
Probably ( a moratorium ) will dry up capital flows for a couple of years, but bear in mind that Indonesia is rich in resources and the real economy will still be around, Lian told Reuters Financial Television.
So it is the lesser of two evils, he said.
Bankers pointed out that many Indonesian borrowers have been unable to pay their debts in any case and that a de facto moratorium has been in place for some time.
It's like 200 debt moratoria now, said one bank analyst.
A debt syndicate manager at a commercial bank concurred.
A lot of companies have defaulted in Indonesia, and in Thailand as well, and stopped payment. There are a lot of deals being renegotiated now and most bankers are spending a lot of time rescheduling debt, he said.
Some analysts said Indonesia would be better off allowing those companies that can pay their debts to do so and let the others reschedule or renegotiate.
But Chris Francis, head of credit research at Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, said that any country in Indonesia's situation must consider how scarce foreign exchange should be allocated.
A government wants to make sure that those dollars go to the highest priority sectors, Francis said.
If a country can't get access to pharmaceuticals or oil, for example, while at the same time some property company or other low- priority borrower can pay its debt, from a government point of view, what is the rational thing to do? he said.
While debt moratoria can take different forms, Francis said that typically holders of loans rather than bonds would be most hurt by such an event.
Probably most at risk are things like foreign currency bank deposits or bilateral bank loans, because in each case there is a one- to- one relationship between the investor and the borrower so it is much easier to renegotiate, he said.
Normally, the least affected would be something like a sovereign bond, because there are thousands of investors throughout the world and any sort of renegotiation or restructuring would be an immense task.
Indonesia's sovereign Yankee bond due in 2006 fared better than most Asian bonds when the entire sector took a hit last October, but it has been hurt by the most recent developments.
Traders said the bond was offered at 900 and bid at 1,100 basis points over comparable U.S. Treasuries for most of the day on Friday, although some said it received a modest boost from news U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers would visit Indonesia and other Asian countries.
Dealers said they hadn't seen the bond actually traded.
Indonesia's bond was pegged in the 600s earlier this week. It was trading around 300 basis points in early November.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 11:18
Mike Sheller (Maybe I'm the square ) ID#347447:
POORBOYS: Your 7:14 to me was just a mite cryptic for this spinning head of mine. Please clarify by personal email . I THINK I know what you're alluding to, but give it to me straight. I can take it. obproj@i- 2000.com

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 11:16
JLIII__A (Bill Buckler) ID#254137:

Bill

I have been trying to reach you via e- mail with out success. My ISP assures me it is not caused by them. I have not received the Jan . 4 Privateer.

JLIII@thenuthouse.com

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 11:11
powmain () ID#225127:
The bet is every IMF & US treasury official will be pleased with results from their meeting in Indonesia. The press and Wall St. will try and sell this bs as fact.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 11:11
Mikey (US bonds held by Japan) ID#347332:
Japan holds US$1Trillion of US bonds.I'm very naive.What would
happen if Japan sold all the bonds? Can anyone tell me step
by step the future events of the world?

Any feedback would appreciated.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 11:00
newtron (SAY YOUR PRAYERS & PASS THE AMUNITION !) ID#335184:
M3 is still growing @ 10 % . Does any one know what the velocity rate is or the rate at which total debt is multiplying ?
BGMI / GB ratio has moved down to a bullish 1.25, resulting in 81% probability of 83% increase in AU mining stocks within one year later !
( SOURCE - Jay Kaeppel, PROSPECTING WITH GOLD MUTUAL FUNDS )

Y.O.S.
Tar Baby

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 10:57
vronsky (ALAN GREENSPAN: Can a leopard change his spots...?) ID#427357:

In 1981 Alan Greenspan “spilled his guts,” “poured his heart out,” “gave us the straight- skinny,” “let it all hang out” ABOUT WHAT HE REALLY THINKS ABOUT THE GOLD STANDARD. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY, he spoke in everyday common, clear language... he obviously wanted EVERYONE TO GRASP HIS THOUGHT, to comprehend, indeed to understand the essence of the GOLD STANDARD... its benefit and its control of THE IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE OF POLITICIANS. Is this the “echo” of the future?

To read Greenspan's essay on the GOLD STANDARD, copy & paste following URL to your Internet call- up window. Then CLOSE the space just before the word eagle - then ENTER. Apparently, the new Kitco format corrupts

the URL by adding a space.

http://www.gold- eagle.com/greenspan011098.html


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 10:53
STUDIO.R (@cherokee...re: your 10:14..What did you just say about my momma?) ID#93232:
My God, do I need some banana puddin'....creamy....nilla wafers....drippin' off the chin. Uugah......me bigum trader too...Skins for white lightnin'? No, Me needum mo' wampum for mo' goldum.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 10:43
xau5 (G7) ID#201131:
Did the G7 do anything over the weekend?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 10:42
goldilox (February Gold Futures) ID#24935:
Can someone tell me when Feb Gold Futures expire?

Thanks

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 10:40
Pete (HAGGIS-Re: your 1-10-98 23:00 post) ID#22451:
My dear Haggis, I have no idea about any other books excepting what was written about the Opium Wars between England and China.
It seems there are 1001 explanations for what is going on with gold and Asia and all seem to be vague and invalid. Could this be the beginning of forcing the World ( All Nations ) into a one world currency?
Where did all the flight capital originate in Asia? It had to be a co- ordinated huge sum for the current collapse of Asian currencies. Remember, all currencies are based on fractional reserves. Even the so called safe haven of USA would collapse if the opposite were happening.
I have always wondered how drugs, especially heroin and opium could continue to be manufactured, when one common chemical ( ? ) forgot name, is needed to make same. With current intelligence agencies they could close it down like a shut drum. Where ever BIG MONEY is involved, there are ruthless people who will manage to control it. The large corps are known to use ruthless tactics, why not a small cabal of powerful individuals?
If you have the time download The Committee of 300 by Dr. John Coleman and read it completely. ( If Narco Gold is being dumped by Hong Kong and the resulting cash being transferred into the USA as flight capital would explain the depressed price of gold and the collapse of Asian currencies. ) If we could determine where all this gold is being sold from, then we would know for sure. CB sales are not that strong to cause the current extent of gold price collapse.The media has managed to trash conspiracy theories; This alone makes me suspicious therefore do not ignore these theories without due consideration.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 10:33
Cyclist (gold price 1982) ID#339274:
The goldprice made a low of 297 3rd week of June,copper bottomed at56,
Can $ bottomed at 76 all at the same time.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 10:27
Carl (Indonesia,military will take tough lineAnother year of living dangerously?) ID#333131:
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/980111/news/stories/indonesia_5.html

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 10:27
newtron (DONALD & ALL SHIPS AT SEA ,DIT.DIT.DIT.DAT.DAT.DAT.DIT.DIT) ID#335184:
Excellent post re Chinese situation.
IS my understanding correct that the Thai Bat devaluation was presaged by a Chinese devaluation of the Yuan ? Can you give me a reference to this or correct me on this ?
The Sino bureaucrats statement that they are not going to devalue is laughable. They are not going to be out devalued by their compeditors, the Asian Tigers !
Y.O.S.
Tar Baby


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 10:27
STUDIO.R (@CJS,,,) ID#93232:
I understand what you just said as to his possible motive. I question why I should assume that he knows what he's talking about; and, why he would choose this public forum to acquire clients or rank by offering proprietary, sensitive trading schemes for gratis. If he is responsible for private equities that are primarily paper investments, he is practicing treason and heresy.

The only mouths from which I have heard uttered these type thoughts before belong to the beltline bandits in D.C.. Watch out.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 10:26
Mr. Mick (Steelers will win Super Bowl and) ID#345321:
we will have a bear market in 98.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 10:17
cherokee__A (@------pretenders-and-contenders...........) ID#344308:

and to the super- bowl- - - - - - - - - -

denver will win as i posted here 2 weeks ago......denver dude, denver..

john elway deserves a championship as does dan marino of miami...dan
will never see it......elway gets his this year........


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 10:17
Skylark (Aurator on Another) ID#93130:
AURATOR: Your early morning post is well done. D'accord.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 10:14
cherokee__A (@------not-another-big-trader----------) ID#344308:

another- - - -

well feb gold is currently @279.1..........that LOOKS to
me, to be, below 280.........where is the bis? where is their
open buying for all to see?

i guess it will happen soon........right?.....i feel ( due to my position )
that i too will soon have to use a proxy to transfer my thoughts
to this group........would not want to be seen typing on a computer
due to my position in life.......you know.....power and all.......

the net is full- - - - - big trader...dave in fargo....dipthrt....shlomo...
....................ANOTHER- - - - - of would- be wanna- be's......screaming
for the attention their mother's never gave......

saying everything and really saying nothing............

i say again- - - - - - - ANOTHER- - - where is the OPEN BIS BUYING?

GOLD IS BELOW 280............WELL?
sure.....it will happen soon..............big trader my @ss!!!!!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 10:13
Spanky (Crystal Ball) ID#286262:

I am interested in your strategy as I have been a reckless short for two years now. I'm still of the philosophy that its coming. Actually I had a crash celebratory bonfire last nite. I'm not really of an astrological bent, but some of those types are concerned about this week, month and year. Would you be interested in sharing any of your current strategy.

Right now I'm short a couple of positions on the S& P and I have a Cisco short expiring 1/17. I don't get any help from brokers or any one else. They are stock salemen and that's it. I'm getting lonely out here as I get continually frustrated with shorting.

I'm interested in your strategy re Mexico. My only position there is long Industrias Penoles.

gmont@mercury.net

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 10:07
Carl (Donald) ID#333131:
I don't understand your reference to the spot/Xau ratio as being evidence of gold in hand being at a premium to paper gold. Wouldn't we have to pull apart the XAU and look at how the gold in the ground represented by cos in the index is being priced? Perhaps a worthwhile exercise. Then we would have a ratio of unmined gold held as paper gold to spot gold.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 10:00
Crystal Ball (For whoever cares--) ID#287367:
The low in gold in 1982 was $296.50 or thereabouts. Gold has not seen $250 since about May 1979

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 09:57
Donald__A (Poking holes in China's claim to have created an economic heaven.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980111/china_inve_1.html

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 09:55
Bob M (Super Bowl Indicator) ID#26059:
If Denver does win the Super Bowl, which is very possible as they are playing their best ball of the season, dont you think Joe Battapaglia and the boys will figure out some way to twist the information so that it becomes an exception to the rule and is wildly bullish for the stock market..the balloon has to keep rising until the air pressure is too great to be contained, then it explodes and drops like a stone

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 09:54
Crystal Ball (@ JTF) ID#287367:
Re: yours of Sat Jan 10 1998 11:29- - I also originally bought March options ( $MXYOF- 130 puts ) , but rolled down to the 120's and Feb for more leverage because after watching recent action, I think the sh!t is going to hit the fan VERY soon. You saw the Mexican Peso really start to crash on Friday, and as the Bolsa is denominated in Pesos, it has a multiplier effect on the downside action. The US Markets broke through December lows on Friday, portending at the MINIMUM a test of the October lows this coming week. The Dow's weakness Friday will scare the sh!t out of the Far East markets- - leading to a positive feedback cycle. The October low in $MXY ( currently 122.29 ) was 105. If Puetz is right ( and I suspect he is dead on ) , the Dow could go to 5400 by the end of the week, which could send the $MXY to ?60- 70, maybe lower. The American and Mexican stock markets have been building IMMENSE head and shoulders tops since July 1997. The Dow has taken out the 200 day MA. The neckline for the SP500 is in the vicinity of 890. Monday we will break down through the neckline. The downside target in SP500 is a minimum of 790, and will probably overshoot by quite a bit. As to my methods- No Black- Scholes, No Black Box, just Ba!!s and the seat of my pants. I'm getting greedy ( I want my $Million NOW ) and am thinking of rolling down again to the Feb 100's ( $MXYNT ) if they are available. Talk about leverage! As Bluto said, Holy Sh!t ( with emphasis on the t ) When the crash is history and I cash in my chips, I'm going to buy all the PHYSICAL gold I can lay my hands on.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 09:51
Bob M (John Disney) ID#26059:
What was the interday low in both the major drops in 1982 and 85? Seems to me there was a point interday that gold hit around $250..does someone have an answer to this?..Thanks

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 09:48
CJS1__A (JUST A THOUGHT) ID#329157:
Consider a person of high rank, stature, or position. In their society, they may be both a business leader and a member of the ruling elite. Their responsibility in recent years has been to manage investment operations in equities, where the source funds arise primarily from oil wealth. As someone remarked here, it is well known that the oil nations have substantial investments in equities.
However, it has become clear to this individual that the whole house of cards is going to come crashing down, and what's bullish for equities and bearish for gold is going to change places. They reason that their position is going to become toast and especially so if they are politically connected. So, they look for an escape route. Finding an arena where gold bugs come together to discuss things anonymously, this person begins contributing little snippets and clues to the developing situation, some of which are not very well known at all, and all this will be much appreciated after the game has ended. Now the individual referred to has established the beginnings of the connections that they will need to rebuild a new position in the new bull arena, ready to fight another day.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 09:47
Donald__A (Deutsche Bank takes 13% hit, Dresdener 10% on Friday over Asian fears) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980109/germany_ba_1.html

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 09:41
STUDIO.R (@T#1....) ID#93232:
Are you buying the ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS ) ? If you are...I'll reread them, otherwise, I'm movin' on to stuff that I can understand. Always been told, If you don't understand it...get away from it. Good advice, so far.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 09:41
Donald__A (@CMax) ID#26793:
I agree with your post at 23:13 last night pointing out the pricing difference in paper gold and physical. We see the spread in many places and the difference directly relates to risk. The XAU/Spot Ratio is one of the riskiest examples, the discount from net asset value in Central Fund of Canada one of the least. You pay a premium to hold gold in your hand; and that is the way it should be.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 09:27
Ted (@ Boot Camp) ID#364147:
Now that kayaking season is officially over it's time for my daily 7.8 mile walk- - - - - - later dudes + dudettes~~~~~~~~~

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 09:24
tolerant1 (hmmmmm) ID#31868:
Gold Mining Outlook

by Steven Jon Kaplan

A QUESTION FOR STOCK MARKET BULLS WHO ARE GOLD BEARS- - If large central bank holdings of gold are bearish for the yellow metal, are not enormous individuals' holdings of mutual funds even more bearish for U.S. equities?

DO AS I SAY, NOT AS I DO ( i.e., FORGIVE US FOR OUR HYPOCRISY ) - - The Bank of Korea declared on Friday that the Korean won was significantly undervalued versus the U.S. dollar. While this statement may have some basis in truth given the economic fundamentals, it would be more convincing were it not for the fact that the Bank of Korea itself is undergoing its most aggressive campaign of dollar buying in history. Merely to add needed liquidity to stablize the markets, of course.

The U.S. administration may be all in favor of a super- strong dollar, but this will inevitably lead to a widening trade gap as U.S. exports become increasingly less competitive and U.S. imports become increasingly less costly. Eventually the U.S. dollar will have to depreciate in order to move back in line with worldwide economic fundamentals.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 09:22
Ted (Studio.R.................and cold hard cash still ain't enuf) ID#364147:
Bring back the 'Boz'......

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 09:17
Buddy (Super Bowl Indicator) ID#261151:

As you all may know, the Super Bowl indicator predicts a bull market in stocks if an NFC or old NFL team ( Colts, Steelers, etc. ) wins the Super Bowl. Otherwise, a bear market is predicted. I believe that this indicator has been wrong only one time. So.... if you are sure 1998 will be down for stocks, bet on Denver!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 09:16
STUDIO.R (@Ted and the Cornwhackers...) ID#93232:
The Osbornian era is now over, forgotten...capoooootz,baby! You're right son, it will take more than my main man Barry Baby!...and we got it...COLD HARD CASH, BABY!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 09:10
Ted (Studio.R...............................no offense but----------------) ID#364147:
Barry SUKS!- - - - Take more than him ta beat the 'Huskers' IMNSHO!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 09:05
STUDIO.R (@TED...football?...What is that?) ID#93232:
Saw Switzer last night at a little Italian joint in Norman. Nice guy...looks rested. We're bringing him back to O.U. ( my alma mater ) ...we need him to shake things up baby!... he da' man. Guns, gold necklaces and green recruiting bucks....We're Back, Baby! Go Sooners!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 08:56
Ted (This isn't 'good news') ID#364147:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980111/britain_ho_1.html

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 08:54
Ted (Let's cut-the CRAP and talk some------------) ID#364147:
FOOTBALL- - - - - - - go 'Niners' + 'Broncos'~~~~~~~

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 08:51
Ted (Poorboys..................and why up so late) ID#364147:
huh

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 08:50
tolerant1 (farfel, sorry, it is early) ID#31868:
This will not just make farfel ill. According to Gold Newsletter the gold mining industry has spent almost $1,000,000,000.00 over the past fifteen years promoting - ( choking sound here ) jewelry in an effort to stimulate gold demand.

This is pathetic.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 08:48
John Disney__A ( Oh my god) ID#24140:
For Bob M -

Back to the old drawing board old buddy - gold didnt

hit 250 in 1982 - please check your numbers.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 08:46
Poorboys (zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz) ID#224149:
Ted- Good morning as I say good night mmmm Sounds like a beatle song anyway ANOTHER must be Batman the trick is to find Robin - - - Away to find clones and more clones - - slumber- - - - - - - - - - - - - sleep.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 08:44
newtron (Pulling the plug on the DOW / US CREDIT MARKET DRAIN !) ID#335184:
Does anyone know what would be the first indication that BOJ was buying AU, as IMHOLYO, this is most likly indicator that the jig is up on US market levitating act / US$ squeeze & is, therefor, best signal to jump on AU Bull & short US market

Y.O.S.
Tar Baby

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 08:44
STUDIO.R (@Ted....if you want to meet for dinner.....to discuss the lawsuit....) ID#93232:
I must send another to represent me...my station prohibits me from revealing myself. This is the price I must pay, and I have grown to detest it...I truly hope you understand. And I implore your kind pardon.

Geeze Louise! I realize that wind affords a speedy separation of wheat from chaff. But last night's second coming was full of fury but...the grain is gone too.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 08:42
BillD (@Newtron...created out of nothing) ID#261269:
creatio ex nihilo

Morning Ted..

Go Gold

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 08:41
Ted (Scrollin back in time) ID#364147:
Aurator ( 2:24 ) Good post- - just what I've been thinkin......

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 08:37
Mr. Mick (refer, questioning ANOTHER's information..........) ID#345321:
Is a good point. He may have inside information, but the financial system is far too complicated for anyone, in whatever position, to know for certain what will happen. C'mon guys, ask him how he knows this stuff!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 08:24
Ted (@ Cape Breton) ID#364147:
Mornin

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 08:24
goldfevr@pacbell.net (gold to 250) ID#431203:
To Bob, regarding 250 gold in '82:

I am looking at a long- term monthly chart of gold ( CTS ) , and it identifies the '82 low for gold @ $295/oz., 6/82.

Where do you get $250/oz.

Acutually, I 'sense', intuitively, that gold could spike down to $250/oz. in the weeks just ahead - - good ole deflation - - but I don't recall that price level in '82. ....- in '78 & '79 yes, but not in '82.

Regards,

David Blair Macrory

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 08:21
newtron (Donald & BUBBA A RIGHTON RE 06:03) ID#335184:
Very well said @ 06:03, the most balanced & cogent current market advice. I would add that there will be enough lead warning to catch the AU upswing by watching the US$ to remain on sidelines, at least as to AU stocks, until the physicals reach bottom & start an obvious turn up. There is not much more downside risk to AU from here below 10% .
Some one said earlier that AU is EMOTIONAL. With all due respect, nothing could be further from fact. AU is the most rational of commodities, & therefor, it is also the most political commodity as well. The low price is currently being artificially suppressed by US/EURO politicians through AU leasing & will remain so until either they have extracted the political, financial & trade advantages they seek from Japan & the Asian Tigers or the market rares back & bucks them to the ground. Watch the Neikki melt down & US will follow leading to the inexorable rise of AU ! Five other triggers could bring the house down as well.

The monetary story of the 20th century is the tragic politicians'
quest , like the alchemests' of the pre- enlightenment obsession for changing base metal into AU, to make money out of fiat ( How do you say OUT OF NOTHING in latin? ) & naturally to deprive the citizen of his ability to control his own store of value or to vote a no confidence in the stewardship of this awesome power by being able to exchange fiat for something of universal intrinsic value. This, ofcourse, usually results where the politicians & people agree to spend public revenues for profligate projects that the people want someone else to pay for & for which the politicians don't have the gall to tax the middle class.

DONALD : RE your post on Alan Abel of BARRONS.
This is surly a signal event when the market corrects for the 1st time in 58 years, not being pushed up by falling rates!!! Witness this retreat in the face of falling 30 year Bond.
Query, what was that event in 1940 - 41 ? Pearl Harbor ? BONSAI !!!! It
must have been a doozy !


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 08:01
Leland (An interesting Sunday morning read...) ID#31876:
http://www.astroecon.com/year/yearly.html

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 07:55
Bob M (Lows) ID#26059:
I still believe that gold needs to hit its 1982 low around $250 to complete the down wave, then the birth of a bull can happen..there is still much downside risk...when you here that the mines begin to shut doiwn, and no more future selling of gold, that is the time to buy

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 07:20
Haggis__A (International Monetary Fund......) ID#398105:

IMF...................

Home page...........

http://www.imf.org/

Gold policy............

http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/gold.htm

Current International financial situation.............

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/FT/Weo/weo1297/index.htm

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 07:16
Haggis__A (John Disney..............) ID#398105:

Aye, you have got a point.

I suppose it's like taunting a religious fanatic!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 07:14
Poorboys (Few@Fish@Left@In@the@sea) ID#224149:
Mike Sheller- Why are you associating with the BIRDS OF PREY ( Scorpio ) When you assert to be bullish on Gold ( Leo ) Do you not see the square ? I guess the school of Goldfish in the Kitco bowl are young and naive and the silverfish need more feeding before the kill.Away to find the peddlers of fish bait .

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 06:33
John Disney__A (Even a Scot gives up sooner or later) ID#24140:
Haggis - Give it away man. You are dealing with a guy with

a brain the size of a pea and the attitude of a hyena. Are

you seriously trying to educate this man Talk about lost

causes.

You know you are right but so what. This guy was born wrong!

Save your strength -

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 06:33
Bill Buckler (Dow: 1977 low to 1997 high) ID#257234:
Dow low in 1977 was 801 - Dow high in 1997 was 8259. That's an increase of 7458 or 931%

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 06:32
ravenfire (sas, notagoldbug, jack) ID#365190:
sas mentioned the obvious ( i.e. gold purchasing power vs. stock performance ) . however, if one believes in financial cycles, that the new paradigm of forever beating the cycle is only so much hot air, *then* there is a correspondingly higher risk to buying stocks ( in the US! ) then to buying gold now.

within the analogy of the financial markets being a big ship ( think Titanic ) , gold is sorta like a lifeboat - just because the dang ship has gone along for so many years without sinking, that doesn't mean that you no longer need and therefore can save space and weight by jettisoning your lifeboats. especially so if you plan on sailing towards iceberg- laden areas.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 06:27
John Disney__A (Ratio - shsmashio) ID#24140:
For Salty

Re consistency of ratio - dunno really - spot checks-

around 1970 - arab light say $1.90 * 16.88 = 32$

gold was actually around 50 I think. At golds peak

say 800/16.88 = 47$/bbl - I think AL crude was in the

high 30s and rising - cant remember if it broke 40 or

not.

With gold at 10,000$ - oil would be pushing 600 a bbl.

Assume Kiwis would finally go nuclear and riding horses

big time.

On the surface, hard to see Asian tiger discomforts

doing anything good for oil demand. Their own

consumption of oil for anything but export demand MUST

decrease.


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 06:03
baba__A (Gold as a strore of value - yes absolutely, over the long term) ID#249147:

There is a very good article about gold in the Daily Telegraph ( London ) about the long run value of gold. The author notes that currencies have lost 95% of there value during the last 50 years but I believe that he was refering to sterling.

It is comical to seee that you youngsters talk about gold being a bad investment from the 1980 high. The same may be true to say that the SNP will be a bad investment for the next 20 years to buy from the record highs in price that we are still at now. The most rational conclusion is to be flexible and follow the trends given some fundamental valuation. Gold is very emotional and is quite frankly a vote against world governments. That is why they try to keep people from buying it or holding it.

The world stock markets have stopped going up and may actually start falling. Asia is well entrenched in this trend. Simple - don't be long and look to go short.

Gold is still going down period. The only trades to have on are to be short or aside. I like being aside. Silver is going up and I like being small long now and waiting to add. Platinum may be turning and I am watching to buy.

Bonds are trending higher but will soon plateau. Aside or long is the way to be.

It seems that an open mind and flexibility are rewarded in the current evolution of economic and social systems. True believers in any dogma seem to get crushed in time. Markets are not about religion.

Enjoy the week ahead. I really enjoy all of the community's posts!


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 05:56
Jack (sas) ID#252127:

What is not evident to many investors is that gold and silver shares tend to be severely wacked every three to four years, many as much as 90% , then with a rise in precious metal prices - within that time frame- large gains are made.
Actually LGB and company tend to divert the attention here to personnal quarrels and away from discussion of the probabilities.
It is my belief that LGB is here for the same reason as the goldbug, but he likes busting our balls more so.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 05:47
NotaGoldbug (gold undervalued) ID#389196:
Sas..

You mention that gold must be undervalued because it's current price
is at 1979 levels. That has as much credibility as the others who's
arguments you question.. Gold is at it's current level because of
supply and demand. Extremely simple!!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 05:36
Jack () ID#252127:

Wouldn't smart business men visualizing global troubles sell at low prices to the effected areas and at high prices to the less effected areas.
What I'm trying to say, is that OPEC needs a growing global economy to remain healthy.
On a different note we are paying more for our oil, as the role of world policeman doesn't come cheap.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 05:21
sas (Gold Purchasing Power) ID#283121:

I don't understand the on- going discussions LGB/Haggis et al regarding the relative investment performances of gold and the US sharemarket over the past 2 decades. The facts are that gold is now trading at 1979 levels ( in US dollars ) and the US sharemarket is currently trading at 900% above its 1982 low. Gold has therefore been a lousy investment if you bought any time since 1979 if you measure your wealth in US dollars, and the sharemarket has been a great investment. However, this is why gold offers such a wonderful investment opportunity now. Without even considering all the tumultuous events occurring in the world, the mere fact that gold's purchasing power has reduced so much makes its risk/reward ratio extremely favourable at current levels. Gold is simply as undervalued now as the US market was in 1982 when it was trading below its 1966 levels. This is so obvious I can't understand why this point seems to take up so much discussion time.
Cheers, sas

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 04:43
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274:
John Disney - - Re: Oil & Gold posting of 03:15. One of the most provacative postings I've seen in some time here! Interesting. Amazing how that ratio has held up, all in all. If that 15.00 dollar crude is true, then given its rate of decline, it should get there in little more than 2 weeks, maybe 3. Also means that the gold decline, should the two prices bottom at the same time, should steepen and bottom then at the 250 number. Wonder what the bonds, dollar, and other curencies would be by then! Of course, all reliant on that magic Fibonacci number and its usage in this case. The whole scenario sure does give something to watch and think about. Thanks!

EB - - Platinum.... Sure does look that way to me too. Monday IS a break day.

Stocks WILL have an interesting day Monday. I am expecting a low perhaps near 890 Mar S& P. Although all scenarios do not happen exactly the same everytime, the '87 market crash happened only after 2 consecutive closes below the 200 day moving average. Friday was one. If Monday also does so, it might behoove you to be especially aware! But somehow, I'm kinda' expecting a BIG bounce Monday with more on Tuesday. Maybe earnings will somehow not be found wanting ... YET, AND maybe good ( but temporary ) news over the currency crisis! Scenarios as I see it NOW, but The usual caveats apply!

Watch the gold though. I can easily see 273 or so short- term on the Feb contract, but with a bounce from there. Beyond that, I will be looking about 2- 3 weeks out for another low.


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 04:40
Haggis__A (LGB2 and Karlito.........) ID#398105:

Given your National debt and Trade Imbalance, you had better think about buying up all the Equatorial Forrests in the world.......you are going to require an awful lot of paper to keep those FED printing presses running!

The alternative, I suppose, would be to open up a few more GOLD mines...... it would probably be cheaper!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 04:30
Haggis__A (LGB2 and Karlito99.........you have sold the farm!) ID#398105:

The U.S. is financing consumption through selling U.S. assets like real estate, stock and U.S. bonds.

http://www.arusa.com/tmpls/sect5_3.htm
http://www.arusa.com/tmpls/sect5_3a.htm

Given my earlier posting, what proportion of the United States do Americans actually own, relative to that now owned by foreigners ?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 04:28
colleen (John Disney- Morning to you!) ID#33164:
If you wish, send me your fax number and I'll send you Crooks's last and final update- Lots of fibo there,it seems, and interesting.

Regards.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 04:17
Jack (Myrmidon) ID#252127:

Security prices are well inflated and who really knows if the DOW figures aren't doctored by the Street as the US inflation figures are conived by the government.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 04:13
refer (Questioning of Another!) ID#41229:
Hey Guys whats the deal!

Wheres the questioning at. Everybody needs to get over the intimidation that this individual has. The questions raised tonight were are softball questions. They were also only questions that were seeking his opinion on upcoming events not not questioning past statements on events that have or have not occured. To be sure thier is an agenda, and Anothers dangling the carrot infront of the horse! The horse needs to stop chasing the carrot!

We have at this sight many bright and knowlegdable individuals, but when a person is intimidated and feels like a lesser person, My Goodness someone spoke of royality or connected. Come on people!

People jump all over LGB 1& 2, Karlito 1& 2 statements, which is justified, but is not some of the statements by Another a bit grandeos! I'm also not saying that the comments are to be refuted but debated.Do not lamb baste the messenger but not to take the messenger as a prophet. They put their pants on just like we do, one leg at a time!

They have an AGENDA, they will keep posting until it is achieved, nomatter what! When it is achieved they will also post that, wait and see!

I'm a gold bug but I'm also having difficulty understanding how the world will be held at bay by an Arab country who may produce 20% of world oil supply, if the price was to reach $30 a barrel would not that open up alot of other oil producing fields. Also at these levels would not some other form of energy be cost effective at this point.

If their is a gold play I for one would be more apt to believe the power play of currencies. You have old money deeply connected in LBMA which has a great deal of wealth just by the flow of gold through it, not mentioning the perks that go along with it, would that be allowed to be put out of bussiness.

Do we have hard numbers on the gold leaving asia currently, i doubt it actually will go the market, wasn't Soro's their just before gold donations were accepted?

I would submit that the dumbest question asked would be that which was not asked!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 04:08
Haggis__A (LGB2...........) ID#398105:

Part Scotch/Irish...........

My dear sir, Scotch is a drink.

You clearly have a LARGE portion of Irish in you!

Aye, Haggis

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 04:03
Haggis__A (LGB2 and Karlito99.....................DREAMERS) ID#398105:

G'Day Mate,

You are living a dream, nothing more, nothing less!

Your analysis is very subjective, and does not equate with the objective FACTS. Simply put, YOU ARE WRONG.

Read the FACTS.......................1997 Report

http://www.arusa.com/
http://www.arusa.com/tmpls/sect2_2.htm

The 1995 report attempts to calculate the total assets of the federal government. The government's main assets consist of property and equipment, cash, investments and inventories. All totaled, the government has $1.298 trillion in assets.

The liabilities of the federal government were estimated to be $5.810 trillion. These liabilities include debt held as U.S. securities, federal employee pensions and actuarial liabilities, as well as other moneys owed.

Net worth is defined as assets minus liabilities. According to the 1995 report, the net worth of the U.S. government is a negative $4.513 trillion. Theoretically, if the government were to sell all of its assets to pay down its debt, it would not be able to pay its current obligations.

Again, if you are not part of the solution you're part of the problem!

Aye, Haggis

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:58
Jack (Jaakko's 00:49 makes good points) ID#252127:

But, what generally happens during currency turmoil. Money first moves toward - hard gold- backed paper. So the Swiss take themselves out of contention.
Switzerland a small country could never withstand huge sums of foreign currency coming in. The probability of Swiss inflation would be real, while the rest of the world may be going in the opposite direction.
So what do you do? You give lip service to gold sales.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:57
LGB2__A (@ Haggis) ID#316409:
And to REALLY piss ya off as I sign off, let me just mention that I'm part Scotch/Irish!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:55
LGB2__A (@ Haggis................Gold always maintains it's value long term) ID#316409:
Take heart though Haggis, my comparisons of Gold's purchasing power are not entirely valid. After all, insignifigant items like homes, cars, foos, gas, electricity, college tuition, medical care, etc etc etc. are really a poor measure of the relative value of anything right?

What REALLY matters, as we are always told be GoldBugs, is that you can still take the Kruggerand and buy yerself a nice cheap Polyester suit at Kmart. Or at Goodwill maybe. So see...Gold has remained stable all along.

What a great store of value it is....if only I'd had the foresite to have bought Gold instead of stocks back in 1980, when Granville et al and the Puetze's of the day were urging me too. Why I could be an impoverished wretch now, with no savings, no home, no retirement, and some Gold coins in safe deposit eh! And like others here, I could be SO looking forward to the day of the Apacolypse when our entire society crumbles in one final infenor and only Gold is left with monetary value....on second thought..maybe I wouldn;t want to live in that society after all.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:49
LGB2__A (@ Gold/Dow) ID#316409:
And of course the fact remains that as to Gold/Dow ounces and shares, the home I purchased in 1980, now goes for approximately 400% more in dollars, meaning I could buy it twice with the same money invested in the market back then.

With Gold on the other hand, it would take literally 8 to 9 TIMES as many ounces to buy this same house today as in 1980.

Call it manipulating the figures as to highs etc. if you like, but it's a real world example that demonstrates the bear market in Gold , and it's loss of value, is as bad if not worse than the crash in Equities of 1929.

The only difference is, this time no one is miserably suffering in the aftermath! ( Except for GoldBugs of course )

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:41
LGB2__A (@ Haggis......avoiding the issue) ID#316409:
I answered it just minutes ago!! The national debt is only meaningful in the broader context of it's size as a percentage of the GDP/GNP, and it's cost to the taxpayer as a percentage of income. In both areas, it's well within the norms that have been established to assure strong economic growth, low unemployment, etc.

I hate debt, yet I must admit the system has worked incredibly well the way it has been controlled the past 15 years or so, once reagonomics took hols and the terrible Nixon/Ford/Carter era of too tight/too loose money got behind us.

Again, debt shmett, we're the most prosperous and strongest nation on earth, by any and all measures. the system works, the debt being a necessary evil. Like it or not, it';s far preferable than the alternatives you GoldBugs would have had us live. Poverty and misery for all....or all but the wealthiest 10% anyway. No thanks. I'm as far from a socialist as you can get, but SOME areas of the social welfare have proven very effective at assuring both freedom, and strength, and opportunity in this quasi capitalist democracy!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:34
LGB2__A (Facts...not fiction) ID#316409:
Thank you Myrmidon. It's nice to see a fact posted here by someone other than Karlito for a change.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:34
Haggis__A (LGB2..................) ID#398105:

G'Day Mate,

You have avoided the issue of your National Debt!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:33
LGB2__A (@ Dizzzzyyyy) ID#316409:
I know how to spell just fine dude, Antidisestablishmentarianism off the top of my head and all that. The problem is my typing skills are ultra poor, I'm a three finger typist at 65 WPM, and 60 MPM.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:32
Myrmidon (@ Haggis) ID#339212:

The DOW in '78 was around 800. It broke above 1,100 in 1981. LGB2 is correct on the 10 fold DOW.

Good night all.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:31
LGB2__A (@ Emerald Heights...........future of DOW) ID#316409:
Emerald, I found your post of yesterday requesting opinion of DOW future prospects. I'd hate to be in the position of giving advice t someone controlling a $400 K retirement plan, soooooo, keeping in mind you and I are in very similar straits along those lines here's what I'M doing, and you can take it for what it's worth.

I bailed from the market when we reached 21:1 P/E's ( slightly above DOW 8000 ) , and I am now sitting roughly 50% cash, 30% Silver, 8% Platinum, 12% in my company's stock.

I'm staying on teh sidelines as the markey digests the Asia / Indonesia crisis. I feel the risk/reward ratio favors staying on teh sidelines for now.

In many ways, thsi is a very risky play as I'm trying to time the market and buy back in below 6700. It may very well never get back to that level in the next few years. I may average a portion back in if we get down to 7300 or so, starting with say 5% , and then dollar cost averaging every month or so unless we have a huge multi day drop in which case I's sell my Silver, and moce back into the market 100% .

Long term, our economic strength has never been better, the dollar is strong, the economy booming, inflation low, the deficit all but disappearing, unemployment at a multi decade low, corporate profits very strong, economic diversity excellent, productivity the highest in the world.

Making a long term bet against the U.S. market would be financial suicide in my opinion. Id I were in your shoes, I'd be inclined to rise out any rough spots and perhaps protect a little in cash/MMF looking for a lower buy in price if you're inclined to be a gambler ( as I unfortunately am ) .

If I had any smarts at all, I'd have learned that market timing is for idiots like Puetz, and have all my money on the market, however, in good time I'll be back in.....just trying to maximize the profits...

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:30
aurator (fibo and AU/oil ratios...) ID#257148:
Crusty

Your maths looks spot on, in terms of fibos to highs, but what about the consistancy of the Au/oil ratio? it is 16.8mmmmm

Now, what does it look like in reverse? what if Gold was 10,000. What does that mean for oil?

On a fundamental aside ( sorry to ask you for facts ) How is global oil demand really going to be affected by SE asian discomforts



There are some NZ tourist bus operators who are now folding. SO much recent tourist infrastructure development was predicated on SE Asian ( esp Korean ) arrivals that tourism industry in NZ is in deep doo doo.

salty

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:26
John Disney__A ( A misspelling conspiracy maybe) ID#24140:

For Mister Bugg

No self respecting conspiracy would have you for a member.

Go back to Night School - Learn to spell !

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:21
Haggis__A (LGB2 and Karlito99.................where art thou) ID#398105:

National Debt and DOW Growth

I have had another look at the USA Market Gain and National Debt for
the last 10 and 20 years.
The graph below indicates that the Dow gain since 1987 was 373% . Given
that the period 87- 98 was the principal period of growth, and having
only graphs not data for the period 77- 87, I find it impossible to
accept your claim of 1000% growth for the market for the period 77- 98!
I would suggest that the % increase for the DOW for the period 77- 98
was the order of 500%
http://satellite.nikkei.co.jp/enews/SPECIAL/market/analysis5a.html
For the period 77- 98 your NATIONAL DEBT increased by a 594% , and for
the period 87- 98 the debt increase was 133% . These figures I assume
exclude interest?
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm
I would therefore suggest to you that over the last 20 years your
National Debt growth has been greater than the DOW growth by the order
of 100 to 200% ! This defeats your and Karlitos' argument.
Please comment.
Aye, Haggis

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:15
John Disney__A (Gold and Oil) ID#24140:
For CMAx and Another and anybody else

Another's recent post on crude oil and gold is

interesting - Small points - crude oil REALLY went

from anout 1.5$/bbl in say 1970 to over 35 by 1981.

Then back to 10 ish then to where is now via ups

and downs.

My problem is that the most recent monthly high for

crude was Dec 31, 1996 at $24.15. The most recent monthly

high for gold was jan 31, 1996 at 405.6. Crude oil is

now 16.63 - a ratio of .688 to its high. If that same

ratio is applied to gold - we get 279 - ( oddly enough

- almost precisely where it is.

Two things worry me now - ( 1 ) oil demand as a result of

far East events - ( falling demand and price should

impact gold )

- ( 2 ) The ratio of 0.688 which is close to the fibonacci.

If we apply 0.618 to the last gold high of 405.6 we

get $250/oz with crude at 14.90 ( say 15 ) .

These numbers dont look NICE but they look reasonable.

Please tell me I'm wrong


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:13
LGB2__A (@ Haggis....yer blowin it again....) ID#316409:
Re your 00:04, several problems with your premise. Firstly, it's the BROAD market ( S& P 500 represents 70% of the market ) , that is the best measure of stock performance since most of us have made our gains in mutual funds. Pegged to the dollar, the market has indeed climbed over 1000% since it's 1978/79 lows.

Secondly, if you want to compensate the gain for inflation, all well and good. If we're then going to do the same for Gold's purchasing power, we'll see clearly that Gold has taken a much more horrendous beating than the dollar drop indicates.

Thirdly, the debt issue has meaning only when it's put into the brodaer context of it's percentage of the GNP, GDP, etc. Currently, I see that my percentage of debt repayment has climbed to 15% of my tax burden. ( The amount of each federal income tax dollar that services debt ) . When I compare this 15% of each tax dollar burden, with the 8% or so of 20 years ago, take teh difference in actual dollars I pay now vs. then, and then reference this to my stock market gains of the past decade and a half, the added tax burden is miniscule and well worth the increased debt.

This is esepcially true when I look at all the otehr benefits of money supply growth. The best economic times in U.S. history, and no end in sight, even of we have a small reduction in growth due to Asian crises.

As for me, I'll take these market profits and economic conditions over the backward thinking GoldBug, poverty proponents of yesteryear ANY day!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:11
aurator () ID#257148:

This thought is giving me trouble
What is the opposite of a bubble?

My local JM sold out of 1oz bars, is not an uncommon seasonal thing.All other denoms, including my fave, the 10 oz, in good supply. 10oz is less per Oz cf smaller denoms, relating to cost of smelting. ANd, as Auric would assert, they weigh more than 10 oz of strawberries. More shipments of 1 oz arriving soon from AUS.

Nick@C I have put in place a mechanism that should prevent a repeat of last year when Maples were shipped back to Aus for you to get your eager hands on them. You can have the Krands tho...

aurator

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:04
farfel (@AURATOR...Now that's an intelligent post....) ID#28585:
Very incisive comments, my loquacious friend!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:03
LGB2__A (Disney Dude........@ Grassy Knoll) ID#316409:
I see you joined the conspiracy club, headed by many of your former fellows here. yes, I admit it now, I am paid by the secret minions of the eeeeeevillll jewish banker Rotucschild, Rockafeller, Tri- laterlist, One worlder, wall street CNBC, third column folks.

They tell me everything to say, so don't hold it against me. Oops, black chopper here to pick me up, later dude, say hi to your hero Timothy McVeigh when you see him will ya?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 03:00
LGB2__A (U.S. stock traders overreacting.........Economy ULTRA strong.........) ID#316409:

Friday January 9, 6:36 pm Eastern Time

Wall Street overreacting to Asian crisis - analysts

( Updates to close )

By Pierre Belec

NEW YORK, Jan 9 ( Reuters ) - The Asian economic crisis has struck Wall Street like a typhoon, threatening one
of the longest running bull markets in history.

But some experts say investors are overreacting to the impact of Asia's problems on the U.S. economy and
corporate profits, and they predict stocks will race higher once logic replaces fear.

It was another frantic week for stocks, as investors hammered companies that warned that earnings for the latest
quarter will be disappointing, particularly those that linked their less- rosy results to Asia.

Asian economies have fallen like dominoes amid collapsing currencies and crumbling real estate speculation.

Wall Streeters sold stocks with a wide sweep, dumping entire sectors such as technology, with little concern as to
whether the companies had real exposures to the Asian flu.

By Friday's close, the Dow Jones industrial average was bloodied, holding a record weekly loss of 384.62.

Investors sold stocks because of fears that the globalization of economies has created a new trading environment
for U.S. multinational companies, which makes them susceptible to weak economic regions of the world.

Most were betting that the fourth- quarter corporate reporting season, which officially starts around mid- January,
will bring a slew of poor earnings.

But some analysts say the fallout from the Asian economic crisis is being blown out of proportion here, and they
reckoned that logic will soon start to replace fear, leading investors to fall in love again with stocks, even those of
some emerging markets.

``Investors are in an orgy of pessimism about corporate earnings because of Asia,'' said Peter Canelo, U.S. equity
strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter.

``After Wall Street gets over its emotional reaction and the earnings reports are out, we may find some positive
surprises, especially for companies that have no Asian exposures,'' he said.

Asia, Canelo said, will have no far- reaching ramifications on the United States, the world's largest and strongest
economy. ``In economic terms, Southeast Asia is nothing, with only 10 percent of U.S. exports going to the
affected areas,'' he said.

``Under the worst- case scenario, even if the United States loses 2.5 percent of those exports and with total U.S.
exports accounting for 11 percent of the American economy, it would merely amount to one- quarter of 1 percent
- - it's a rounding error,'' he said.

Most observers say the Asian slump will trim about half a percentage point off the U.S. economy in 1998, lowering
growth to 2.5 percent or 3 percent, which is still a healthy pace.

The U.S. economy remains in terrific shape with wholesale prices falling by 1.2 percent in 1997, the biggest drop
since 1986. Also, the jobless rate is the lowest in a quarter century.

Analysts expect the growth of earnings for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index to rise this year by 5.5
percent, or about half of 1997's growth rate and down one- third from 1996.

``The big surprise in 1998 is that we are going to put Asia's problems behind us a lot sooner than most people
think, certainly in the first half,'' said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer for First Albany Corp. in Albany, N.Y.

``The first hint will be when stocks in Asia start to rise at a time when their economies are contracting,'' he said.
``This will be the sign that global stock markets are about to shake off the impact of the region's problems.

Johnson said the stock market is currently going through tough times because investors are afraid to get
``blindsided'' by bad earnings reports.

He said portfolio managers, who invest billions of dollars for their mutual fund customers, have become gunshy
when it comes to any company with Asian exposure.

``Investors don't only have to worry about the stocks that they own, but entire sectors, as well,'' Johnson said.
``Each time there's a bad earnings report, it tends to prepare the portfolio managers for the next disappointment.''

On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,503.22, down 52.32 points. For the week, it was off 78.31
points.

The Standard & Poor's composite index of 500 stocks was off 28.36 points at 927.69. For the week, it was off
47.35 points.

The NYSE Composite index of all listed common stocks was off 14.17 points at 487.47. It was down 24.68
points for the week.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 02:58
A.Goose (Aurator: Another mentions 10,000 in his Nov 22 post.) ID#200174:



Date: Sat Nov 22 1997 23:13
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
This was written: To find the answer to the LBMA ,

Follow the connection from London, to South Africa, to the

Middle East, and on to Asia

Mr. Markus Angelicus,

I read the gold- eagle write. You have made the link between

London ( LBMA ) and South Africa .

Also:

Many look to the middle east and say they control the oil market

no more. I say you see not what is in front of your eyes!

They do not have to keep oil up in price to control it.

One can gain more wealth by keeping oil down than by driving it

up, much more! And what is the value of this type of manipulation?

It is measured in gold! Tell me now, what gain is there to destroy

the world economy with high cost oil when they will provide you

gold instead?

But what value gold? All say it is only a commodity subject to

supply and demand! Understand me, Demand and supply

is written by BIS and $15 oil can cost $250 gold or $10,000 gold,

whatever is required! $250 gold and LBMA will live! $10,000 gold

and LBMA is sacrificed!

But, it will never come to this. The oil understanding was broken by

the Asians. More gold has been sold than can ever be covered! This

market is not the same as the past. One day gold will start up and

BIS will deal with it the only way possible!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 02:57
aurator (COMEX -- Call that a Free Market?) ID#257148:
JTF
SImply to answer your question, I have not the practical knowledge & Experience of DA whom I respect. Yet I believe we are actually witnessing a case of The tail wagging the dog The derivatives act as amplifyers, as you noted. Derivatives originally conceived of as stabilisers have attracted huge speculative following. Look at how many posters have a good working knowkledge of derivatives at just this site. Many people are making their livings out of such paper. Many more believe they are making thier fortunes out of such paper. I suspect that, in a chaotic breakdown, the paper gold, that's stocks as well as derivs may become illiquid. There may be no market if the market makers themselves are under water, as Another asserts they will be.

I do not like the powers of COMEX. they seem anathema to a free market. There appears to be no recourse to the holders of comex if comex decrees that positions must be liquidated and forbids further purchasing as was done to the Hunts. They got screwed by the unfree market of COMEX. This is not the market of free enterprise. They can change the rules in hindsight and brutally fast.

I like to count sheep at night and not worry about Comex crying when the market moves against the decision makers/power brokers. Heck, they broke the Hunts.

However LBMA is another story;;;



Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 02:49
HighRise (Try This ) ID#401460:

Select Copper Daily Chart
http://router.minot.com/~bohl/
There was some positive movement in some of the grains, I think, Friday.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 02:44
HighRise (COPPER) ID#401460:
Check out the commodity charts.
Copper tells the story, a study decline from last july actually leading Gold down.
DEFLATION
The question is why the US construction BOOM the biggest in years is not at least keeping it flat?
http://bohl.minot.com/display.pl

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 02:44
JTF (Signing off -- it's the wee hours up over!) ID#57232:
Aurator: Our paths often don't quite cross do they? By the way, I do have some sunspot graphs for you - - had some problems with my ISP - - couldn't send the graphs! I finally sent them direct, bypassing my ISP. If sharefin gets them, I'll send copies to you.

I agree with the essence of your post about ANOTHER. I read those posts partially because it makes me think about the mystery of gold pricing, and partially for the entertainment value. I don't think we are expected ever to decipher the riddles - - and yes - - I do think he/she is well connected. Us mere mortals must eke out a living trying to amass the savings that he/she already has!

What is your opinion about the LBMA and comex? Do you agree with D.A. that it would be impossible to grossly distort or corner the gold market, even with derivatives? It just occured to me that there is still one possibility - - the derivatives offer tremendous leverage - - new since the period of 1961- 1967, and 1975- 1977 when the CB's tried to suppress gold the way they are trying to do now. But now there is the amplification effect of gold derivatives. I wonder - - what do you think - - could a massive derivatives blitz of the gold market work? It would have to be highly coordinated. I shudder at the thought. Just how much money would a speculator need if the CB'S refuse to sell gold, and that speculator could generate huge amounts of derivatives? Comments? I hope it never happens, because that would totally disrupt the world's financial system.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 02:44
aurator () ID#257148:

Well, as long as we're talking about another in his absence, I was thinking about this $10,000 per oz price that Schultz has posted from another's previous posting ( anyone know where? ) It seems as impossible to comprehend as would a price of $280 ( and below ) from 6 months, a year, five years ago. That prediction by the Hep was met with scandalised derision here from those who knew better.

Of course, if AU was $10,000, what then happens to the price of other commodities, will food and housing be at today's prices? House prices seem to be highly inflated in many W nations now, what will happen to them?


sharefin
aurator on moonstuff, just trying to get a rise. Actually I have an intuition about Monday. Intuition only. I play my hunches, try not to bring up my lunches. clouds are gathering, there may be a lightning strike in advance of the storm.


On SF, the best of all time IMHO Soylent Green. Only forgotten who wrote the short story it was based on No RooM! No Room! Philip Dick?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 02:34
Myrmidon (Oil & Gold) ID#339212:

It is well known that a lot of the Arab oil money is invested in the major stock markets. I want to remind you that the Arabs are smart selling oil cheap because they don't want to see a significant slowdown which will affect their investments.

Expect further increases in oil production, or price cuts, if stock markets weaken to protect these investments.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 02:27
JTF (COMEX,LBMA and physical gold vs paper gold) ID#57232:
ANOTHER,CMAX: I am not clear on one point with regard to physical gold versus paper gold. I raised very similar points a few days ago, that you both are raising today - namely that the gold market prices reflect paper gold prices and no longer are linked to true physical gold.
D.A., a commodities trader who should know, explained to me that there was no way that the gold price could skyrocket hundreds of dollars in a few days, because substantial amounts of physical gold are always being traded on the open markets. This should be documentable. Thus the primary effect of the derivative gold trading is only to make the price of gold fluctuate more rapidly, not shift the price of gold by hundreds of percent.
D.A. also pointed out that gold, unlike silver, would be nearly impossible to physically corner. Given the diversity of gold owners, I am inclined to agree.
I would be very interested if either of you can come up with a convincing argument why I am wrong about this.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 02:27
Schippi (Fidelity Select Gold Charts) ID#93199:
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts:
Five Year Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpmlt.htm
120 market days Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm120.htm
30 market days Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm30.htm
10 days Hourly Chart http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 02:24
aurator (_____ANOTHER ________ONE____TO_______ANOTHER) ID#257148:
ANOTHER
WEll I know you've logged off, but perhaps you could answer this question when ou next return. You said:

Cmax: I must use another to express my knowledge, as position will not allow.

I well understand your wish for anonymity, even possibly for a translator, but I do not understand why you *have* to express your knowledge. I am grateful to you and to all who do post here, but why do you *have* to do this?

You appear, from you posts, to be quite different from most of us who are average Joes ( except Éß - clearly royalty ) who have been fortunate to find this site. Here at the waterhole of kitco, liike minds gather to exchange our ideas in the hope of understanding more. It seems that you arrived at this site with a complete understanding and have been casting your knowledge slowly around, a little at a time.

In other words, like one or two other posters at this site in the past, you appear to have an agenda. You appear to lift the veil slightly to reveal a little of this already known understanding, and enjoy some of the eager thirst displayed here for more knowledge, so you lift the veil higher.

So, you may be a Very Big Man, and then why do you post here? WHat compels you? If you aren't a Very Big Man, then you must be enjoying this, your little joke.- string along the goldbugs, get your ducks in a row to make it easier to step on em. eh?
FWIW I do not think you are posting a joke, but it may be a very interesting smoke screen. And I have enjoyed the mental exercise of putting your jigsaw together in any event.



atruaor

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 02:23
Schultz (Cmax) ID#288239:
Perhaps the reserve currency ANOTHER refers to indicates a separate and non public level of trading for oil on the world market. Many of his posts allude to the fact that governments are subsidizig oil purchases by sweetening their inflated currencies with either the US dollar or gold.

This would support the sudden disappearance of inflation in the 70's. That problem seemed to magically disappear. What is more likely is the establishment of an under- the- table system whereby governements can make oil purchases privately so as to avoid scrutiny of what they are really paying.

We repeatedly see government efforts to manipulate the price of gold down. Why? Because gold pulls down the pants of our leaders and exposes
their ugly hyperinflationary practices.

I don't think the runaway inflation of the 70's ever left us. The powers that be simply got smarter at disguising inflation by manipulating the INDICATORS of inflation.

Without a benchmark there is no way to tell how much a currency has been inflated. I have no trouble believing the currency has been inflated 10X since the price of gold crashed. This puts ANOTHERS comments about $10,000 gold into perspective. Such a circumstance could only be the result of governemental lying and coverup of inflation through manipulation of commodities and subsidized fuel.



Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 02:21
Myrmidon (@ Haggis - check your email) ID#339212:

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 01:58
News Server (Ron Brown) ID#390100:

More scandal breaking over Air Force and Ron Brown. http://ruddynews.com/jan11.html

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 01:57
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
CMAX & ALL: I must be away for a time. good luck

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 01:52
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
A.GOOSE: Nothing is assured! Life is a risk and subject to many changes.

I ask you, if the USA could not remove the Iraq leader when they were in full battle dress, then? No, the US tanks are not a factor in this. The risk is to each person and how they hold their wealth. The concept of what wealth is, is going to change. Concept is but a thought and a thought of what value is, changes thru life. Time will prove all things.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 01:51
Cmax (@ANOTHER) ID#344205:


Please allow me to repost your most eloquently stated proverb:


Life takes us as winds on a storm, to what end we may never know.
















Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 01:42
Cmax (@ANOTHER) ID#344205:
ANOTHER:
Thanks for the reply.
Yes, oil did go from $1.5 bbl to $20, and then stabilized down. But real estate and manufactured items also inflated similarly, shortly thereafter. All this just leads back to “water seeking it’s own level”

When you say “the same will happen when/if oil bids for gold”, ( please correct me if I am wrong ) I believe that you are stating that after the 70’s oil crisis, only the U.S. dollar could be used as a medium to buy oil, and when the dollar takes a dump, the only medium left of interest to the Saudis’ oil is gold, and in such situation, will trigger even higher unprecedented increases in oil ( and gold ) versus currencies.

I have always perceived the dollar and gold as being in a perpetual tug of war as being the world’s reserve currency, but I have not quite grasped the “oil backing gold as an additional value to digital currencies” concept. I see an oil backed dollar world reserve currency, and in the default of the dollar……a gold currency to buy oil; but I do not follow gold as an “additional value” to the dollar as a medium to purchase gold. As events unfold as they appear they must, I see a gold standard digital currency, or a dollar standard digital currency, but not the dollar with gold as an additional value ( backing ) .
.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 01:33
ANOTHER (Thank You.) ID#60253:
Cmax: I must use another to express my knowledge, as position will not allow. Life takes us as winds on a storm, to what end we may never know.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 01:30
John Disney__A (oris - see citizen X) ID#24140:
For Haggis and Oris

Good One Haggis - Those Dorks got the weekend OFF.

They'll be back. They're paid to be. I hope not much

in LBG's case. Your point on the Debt seems to have

K struggling. LBG's still trying to find out what debt

means.

For 223 -

Somebody else likes AGEE. Hooray - Try Two settings

of his texts by Sam Barber - Sure on this Shining Night

and Knoxville..... Agee also wrote 2 film scripts -

African Queen and Night of the Hunter. An Outstanding

talent. Evans wasn't bad either.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 01:28
A.Goose () ID#200174:
Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:39
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:

Thanks for your response. The one sure thing is that we will soon know.
Some might say that bonds are going to be turned upside down either way this plays out, at least where the U.S. is concerned.

Oil will bid for gold and in doing so create an oil currency out of it. That outcome would make the current currency debts ( bonds ) next to worthless and turn the financial system upside down.

The time frame of this game seems to be taking longer and playing closer to the line than you had first supposed. Might the outcome go the other way? Sometimes even the intelligent and powerful misjudge.

An oil based currency may be in the future anyway. The problem there is as SDRer pointed out Who protects the owners, the source, the oil cartel? It is not a surprise to me that Clinton has moved major armed forces to the oil cartel's doorstep. They sit and wait and oil's priced dropped and production rose. Gold's price dropped, their they sit with no indication of leaving.

Maybe oil will not bid for gold while these troops sit on their doorstep?
Maybe they worry about the response from the west, I certainly am afraid of Clinton and company. Possibly they are also.

Is the outcome assured?


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 01:21
Dave in CO (@Oris) ID#215211:
You called him a P____ Communist after hearing it in a movie. And you didn't know what it meant? Yeah, right. I fell off the chair laughing.

Did the Communists deport you to the U.S.?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 01:20
Jaakko (@myrmidodon) SWISS announcement...) ID#243212:

I hate to be a bear....but I think you are right!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 01:18
Cmax (@ANOTHER) ID#344205:
ANOTHER:
I have been very intrigued by your posts, and very much would like to dine with you. You name the restaraunt and country, it would be MY pleasure. ( Always in confidence and with discretion ) . my e- mail address is cmax_au@hotmail.com.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 01:16
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
CMAX: I can not oppose your long term view. But, I can change the contents. Oil went from appx. 1.50/bbl./+/- to $20.00/+/- and the world changed. Many 3rd world countries ( mexico, exp. ) have been using the same currencies for many years, even as they were destroyed. The people only adjusted by adding the US$ as a value/mix. The same will happen when/if oil bids for gold. All nations will use the same digital currencies for all trade, but will also add gold to the value. The world will not end, it will change! As some say not enough gold to use as a currency, I say gold not valued high enough to use as currency. At a high enough value ( price ) it is an excellent currency! Oil now backs the US$ as a digital world reserve trading currency. When oil backs gold as an additional value to digital currencies your view will be different.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 01:12
goldilox (Nikkei Futures) ID#24935:
Where do you see that the Nikkei futures are down 500 pts?

I'm new to the gold scene and am going to get in on Monday. I've been thinking of buying call options on the XAU. How far out should i go with them?

Thanks for the advice!!!


Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 01:05
Haggis__A (Myrmidon..............) ID#398105:

G'Day,

My email address is :

gabbro@gold.net.au

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:58
Myrmidon (@ Jaakko) ID#34592:

Very interesting theory. In view of that, expect more negative news to give the Swiss et al. time to cover their shorts.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:55
Lurker 777 (sharefin) ID#317247:
Thank you. Looks like a good place for a bottom.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:54
grant (to Mr. Fundametalist) ID#432221:

Our messages crossed in the mail. Your apology is duly noted and accepted. I cannot deny that I have been quick to judge in the past,but i am not proud of it
Good evening
GRANT

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:49
Jaakko (All ) The Swiss announcement was a forced issue...)) ID#243212:

Consider this: The Swiss, like any CB are generating CURRENT income by either lending out gold or selling ( writing ) call options against their holdings...in both cases they are BEARS...In the former case they are taking a HIGHER RISK in counting on that e.g. the gold producers are staying in business and actually returning the borrowed gold...in the latter case they themselves are in control since they have the gold....but if they took just a LITTLE bit of risk, they would sell ( write ) just a LITTLE bit MORE gold options against their holdings than they actually have ( to increase their CURRENT income ) ...most option holders don't take actual delivery of the gold....so LOW risk...with time they got comfortable with this strategy...so they sold ( wrote ) more...sofar so good AS LONG AS the POG was going DOWN....but when the POG started to go UP, THEY PANICKED...so they had to do something...so they actually went out and stated that they were THINKING of selling 1,400 tons of gold out of their reserve...and the gold PLUNGED through $300!!!!....well we read in the paper couple of days later that it takes a REFERENDUM IN 1999 to decide whether they will actually sell ANY gold!!!.....HOW UNSWISS action could the announcement have been!.... secrecy...conservative Swisss!!!!?.....essentially they were SHORT ( ONE WAY OR THE OTHER ) and they had to COVER...to save their hide!!!

You can see how in the couple of last days again bear raids were conducted in the thin market when only HONG KONG was open to force the POG under $280 so that at option expiry those options would be out of money and no delivery of gold would likely be taken...

The only way out of this vicious circle IS TO TAKE ACTUAL DELIVERY OF THE GOLD BY PRIVATE INVESTORS ( even if slightly out- of- money!!! ) and cause a shrinkage in the MULTIPLIER EFFECT that the CB's excercise on the POG in the market!!!!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:48
grant (O K MR Fuda mentalcase aside..........) ID#432221:
I appreciate all of your input. See ya tomorrow. From the GRANT house in Texas,USA........... Goodnight

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:48
Cmax (to ANOTHER....... from your biggest fan) ID#344205:
Another:
Your post mentions your preoccupation with the price of oil once the price of gold goes ballistic. I agree with you 100% , for the very short term; but would also like to express an opposing view for the long term.

I do not believe that oil is THE most important resource in modern society ( wow, it even hurt to type that, because on the face value of it, that statement would seem counterproductive to logic ) .

Yes, oil is the basic source of energy ......but lest we forget.....

Water will always seek it’s own level.

This is just a western analogy for saying that all things left free to the markets, will eventually even out under the law of supply and demand. Even controlled markets ( prices controls, currency controls, etc. ) eventually lead to an equally ( if not worse ) counter- reaction to it’s intended effect.

A very simplistic overview would be:
Today's cheap gold= cheap oil
Gold skyrockets= oil skyrockets
Oil skyrockets= all manufactured products skyrocket
Products hyperinflate= everything hyperinflates, or nobody buys ( resulting in deflation ) :
a. hyperinflation= increased cost of services, manufactured goods, medicines,food, etc to Saudis ( as they import EVERYTHING ) and everyone hyperinflates until no one can buy anything, which in the end will lead to…....
b. deflation= stagnant market= nobody buys oil
No demand for oil= Oil producers die for lack of food medicine and
machinery
Desperate oil producers lower oil prices= manufacturing can once again
start to produce ( albeit after
a devastating depression )

In the very short term, I would agree with your analysis, but in the long run,
which is more important…..
the blood, ( oil )
the heart, ( manufacturing )
the lungs, ( food )
the kidneys, ( services and technology )
or the liver. ( medicine )

To do without any one of these, one most certainly will die. To believe that ANY ONE is more of these funtions important than the rest, is a fallacy.
What is oil without service, technology, manufacturing, and food?
ALL are vitally important.
So I just can’t believe that oil is the “last word” to world economies….. in the end, water WILL seek it’s own level.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:46
fundaMETAList (grant : Kind sir, I stand corrected.) ID#341214:

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:39
sharefin (I don't like mondays) ID#284255:
Lurker777
Here's your chart.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Image197.gif

Nikkei futures down 500pts to 14,500.

Watch out below.

Stolen from the web:
This is not like ANY bear market of the past 40 years. We will stick our neck out far enough to say Asian markets are going to tank again over the weekend, AND that Wall Street is likely headed for another Bloody Monday... we won't guess just how bloody.


Off to the BBQ ( :o}}}}}}}}}}}}}}]]]]]]]

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:39
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Mr. A. Goose: The BIS is not a broker or trading house. They do not move with chart patterns or wall street directives. If gold drifts under 280 for any period of time, they must act to forstall a much worse outcome. That being; Oil will not allow Lbma to drive gold so low as to make the CBs the only suppliers. Oil will bid for gold and in doing so create an oil currency out of it. That outcome would make the current currency debts ( bonds ) next to worthless and turn the financial system upside down.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:38
Myrmidon (@ Haggis) ID#34592:
Haggis, if you are there, cab I have your email address?

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:35
grant (Fundametalist got a bug up his ass) ID#432221:

The more I think about it the more it pisses me off.
MR fundametalist thinks he can peg a socialist at 600 yds.
Mr. fundametalist probably doesnt know what 600yds looks like.
I gotta tell ya,it's a new one on me, I've Never been mistaken for a socialist/commie before. Kinda wierd. Mr fundamentalcase be damned,I am honored to converse with those on this site

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:23
Earl (@cooperation?) ID#227238:
ROR: You are correct that this period of turmoil is going to result in complete fragmentation of international cooperation. Probably because the rest of the world is discovering that cooperation means only one thing: The big money and the US predominantly, wins. While the smaller nations are once again impoverished.

Many years ago I worked for a company that brings good things to life. As a result, we employees developed a slogan among ourselves. That is: Play ball with me ...... and I'll stick the bat up your a$$. Internationally, a similar situation is equally recognised.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:23
Earl (@cooperation?) ID#227238:
ROR: You are correct that this period of turmoil is going to result in complete fragmentation of international cooperation. Probably because the rest of the world is discovering that cooperation means only one thing: The big money and the US predominantly, wins. While the smaller nations are once again impoverished.

Many years ago I worked for a company that brings good things to life. As a result, we employees developed a slogan among ourselves. That is: Play ball with me ...... and I'll stick the bat up your a$$. Internationally, a similar situation is equally recognised.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:20
grant (AKA?LGB?) ID#432221:

FundaMETAList,
Ive watched your postings ,as well as the rest, for about two weeks now. Ive seen a small portion of all,admittedly,including LGB's. Let me make sure you do not confuse him ( or more likely her ) with me.
I have never adopted the views or solutions of the left. Those who know me would laugh if they knew you mistook me for a leftist .
All I can say is ...the line of questioning I put forth was purely that of one who does not know, if I strayed into some undefined forbidden territory.,it was because I was unfamiliar with your political slant.
FOR THE RECORD MR fundametatwist,I AM NOT,AND HAVE NO SYMPATHY WITH, MR.LGB.
I WONDER IF YOU AFFORD SUCH WELCOME IN YOUR HOME?
This tastes bad, but I still very much appreciate the welcome I've seen so far from others.
thanks
GRANT THE CAPITALIST

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:18
ravenfire (anyone noticed the DJIA option prices lately?) ID#365190:
http://www.cbot.com/setlodjc.htm

closing prices on calls and puts on the CBOT DJIA futures.

Hmmmm.....

notice how all the out of money puts are going up in price. the market is getting more jittery.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:15
A.Goose () ID#200201:

Date: Sat Jan 10 1998 23:49
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:

In your first post your draw a key line at $280 an ounce. Please note that we are at 278.25. Shouldn't the BIS have been buying? If they were does that mean they could not drive the price up?

Hear me now, if gold tries to go lower than US$ $280 the BIS will buy it OUTRIGHT in the OPEN for all to see! They must! They will! I know. For no currency system could stand if Oil were to bid for gold!

Your statement seems quite strong, the action of gold didn't support $280 on Friday, what is up?



Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:10
sweat (ANOTHER) ID#23782:
Thank you for answering the questions and
I sincerely hope OIL collects the GOLD
that it is owed.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:09
Mole (I am just a poor boy though my story is seldom told.) ID#34883:
No matter what happens...I love you guys. Don't ask for this again.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:04
Haggis__A (LGB2 and Karlito99............................) ID#398105:

National Debt and DOW Growth

I have had another look at the USA Market Gain and National Debt for
the last 10 and 20 years.
The graph below indicates that the Dow gain since 1987 was 373% . Given
that the period 87- 98 was the principal period of growth, and having
only graphs not data for the period 77- 87, I find it impossible to
accept your claim of 1000% growth for the market for the period 77- 98!
I would suggest that the % increase for the DOW for the period 77- 98
was the order of 500%
http://satellite.nikkei.co.jp/enews/SPECIAL/market/analysis5a.html
For the period 77- 98 your NATIONAL DEBT increased by a 594% , and for
the period 87- 98 the debt increase was 133% . These figures I assume
exclude interest?
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm
I would therefore suggest to you that over the last 20 years your
National Debt growth has been greater than the DOW growth by the order
of 100 to 200% ! This defeats your and Karlitos' argument.
Please comment.
Aye, Haggis

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:02
Golden Boy (Jaakko (CME)) ID#430233:
Thanks for reposting. Worked fine.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 00:01
oris (@Haggis) ID#239377:
Haggis, if you meet Karlito, please let Karlito
know that I believe Karlito is the PUSSY COMMUNIST.

I don't know what it means, it's a phrase from the Tank movie.






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