KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 23:59
Earl U>(On the cusp of contradiction.) ID#227238:
Aurator: Aye! Tis better to dispense with dispensations. While we have lost a couple of endearing personalities, in return, we no longer witness extended periods when the zoo is being run from the monkey cage.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 23:55
tolerant1 U>(I feel wonderful) ID#31868:
My day has been spent instucting many little people about real money. On this day I gave coins of gold, silver and platinum. Pressed firmly into their palms.

What is this? Is this real?

When they realized looking around the room that what they collectively held in their hands was in the tens of thousands I sat back and said it is good.

The word precious took on a new meaning. I said now that you have touched real worth will any of you accept paper?

Fast audience, paper was repugnant to one and all.

Give me the children and the children's children and the world is mine.


Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 23:49
A.Goose U>(Late night ramblings - then off to sleep) ID#200163:
Dec 25th late in evening

A.Goose

It becomes more clear to me that this past week only one action by Japan Inc. received negative reactions from our leaders’ talking heads. They were happy will the massage loans, the stock market support with public funds, and the reinflation of Japan. What they talked about was the actions of the BOJ. The BOJ was selling dollars and buying yen. CNBC’s Woeman spent some time outlining the inherent contradiction that action showed.

What I would like to suggest is that the BOJ action indicates that the U.S. is in very risky waters. The U.S. has not intervened in the currency arena to drive down the dollar. It does not seem concerned that its industries will be unable to compete in the global market against the devalued Asian currencies.

Why?

I think that they have a bigger problem at hand. They have a massive debt that they have to finance. With a weaker dollar, sagging stock market, how could they sell their debt. The debt must be financed, that is their directive, that is their focus. All least is secondary.

The game has come down to holding the dollar.

I think we will see gold strongly rise as Japan reasserts itself and its currency.

In the same breath I would like to say that I believe that this whole Asian crisis was engineered ( most possibly through derivatives ) to support the U.S. bond market. ( Crazy maybe ) But I am amazed that the most productive area of the world was attacked and decimated, when I would have assumed that the largest debtor nation would have had that fate befallen them.

IMHO.
I state the above as food for thought.


Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 23:48
Haggis__A U>(Myrmidon and 223..............) ID#398105:

G'day from Kalgoorlie,

You may find it useful to check up on the VANADIUM BATTERY developed by the University of New South Wales. Source Vanadium Battery' via Altavista.

A Scotsman living in South Australia has developed an electric car capable of 120Km per hour, travelling Sydney-Melbourne return, on a single charge. He has received death threats, persumably from third parties acting on behalf of major automoto interests. A man ahead of his day.

Aye, Haggis

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 23:47
aurator U>(Pave Paradise, put up a Parking Lot.) ID#257148:
Earl: That's right, and in the words of one of Toronto's most famous citizens..

You don't know what you got 'till it's gone....

Are you thinking of a special posting dispensations for dual personalities? After all if you have a monkey on your shoulder ( or a Greek Goddess of Confusion ) it is often safest to give it/her/him a say in manufacturing our world. Better that than intolerant outbursts from tolerant2.

How do we apply? But, don't forget the 7 faces of Éß, some of us will need real special dispensation....New Years Resolution Time...I shall stop picking on Éß....?

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 23:40
ali__A U>(Myrmidon) ID#246272:
Sorry, spelled your name wrong.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 23:35
ali__A U>(Myrmicon:) ID#246272:
Your are right,these batteries can be recycled.But how many are?Iam familliar with collecting old watch batteries.As long as the price of silver does not justify the return of these discards, they will slumber in cans or get thrown in the garbage.I got a few holidays out of the silver play when the hunt bros.tried to corner the market and have been following silver since.There certainly is still a lot of silver out there,but what price will bring it to the market?

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 23:31
Earl U>(@KGB) ID#227238:
Donald__A: Absolutely. Much like the aftermath of a flood; we do not fully appreciate our losses until the insurance is paid and we begin to re-outfit. So it is here. We may have gained a measure of tranquility but it was not without cost.

We will be forever in doubt about the outcome of two interesting ventures. Bernatz and his amazing dirt machine and the exploits of KGB and the transport of russian platinum to market. ...... Who on earth would have come up with the image of 1942 Dodge lend lease truck? ..... Bart: Special dispensation is in order. ....... Perhaps we can trade 1 LGB for KGB and 1 Karlitto for Bernatz. ....... Just kidding guys. ( big grin thing )

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 23:07
Haggis__A U>(PH in LA.................batteries) ID#398105:

G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

It might interest you to also check up on the new Vanadium battery being developed by the University of New South Wales in Australia. This can be source via Altavista - Vanadium Battery.

Aye Haggis

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 23:03
Ted U>(Aurator) ID#364147:
nope,we ain't got no snow....how bout you

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 23:03
Donald__A U>(@Myrmidon; Funny. I can access but only lift a partial.) ID#26793:
The bank did not quantify the losses. But a UBS spokeswoman said market speculation putting the
losses at 500 million to 600 million Swiss francs was markedly exaggerated.

In its first-half letter to shareholders UBS said equity derivatives turned in an unsatisfactory
performance, suffering among other things from valuation adjustments on trading positions which
negatively impacted earnings and from difficult market conditions in Japan.

^REUTERS@ Reut20:00 11-19-97

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 23:01
Ted U>(Christmas is officially OVER in Cape Breton) ID#364147:
We can now go back to our 'normal' behavoir........

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:59
vronsky U>(NIKKEI SINKING FAST) ID#427357:
Someone pulled the plug in the tub in TOKYO - as the Stock Index is plunging rapidly, now down 406 points ( -2.7% ) , totally wiping out yesterday's price surge... AND THEM SOME, A BIG SOME!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:59
Donald__A U>(@Aurator) ID#26793:
At least we have been spared that the fundamentals are sound line for the past several weeks. We should start an index on that one.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:56
Myrmidon U>(@ Donald) ID#345268:
Thanks Donald, but, when I tried to go to the site, twice, the message was Error, the requested object was not found. Thanks anyhow for taking the time to help me. I found the other side and I will buy the book.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:55
Donald__A U>(@Myrmidom) ID#26793:
As an afterthought on the UBS post. That loss is what apparently forced a Swiss bank merger and the resultant loss of jobs by 13,000 Swiss bank employees.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:54
aurator U>(utterances, but only just) ID#257148:
Ted G'day! my cousins in Toronto say no snow today!,You got any your way?
Donald, some kick in the guts Hashimoto delivers on Xmas day huh? What's going to be next? the JMF __Japanese Monetary Fund__?

Another Camdessus san for tttolerant1 to go tilting at windmills after?


It a sweet gold woirld

Once from Brooklyn, always from Brooklyn, eh Gastro man?

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:50
Donald__A U>(@Earl) ID#26793:
Perhaps you should check with platinum interests first. If KGB repairs his Karburator on the 42 Dodge Lend Lease truck there could be big losses as deliveries are made.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:49
Earl U>(@variations.) ID#227238:
El Gee Bee ( aka LGB ) : No major dengration intended. Merely trying out a variation of your handle. .... As in the Shiek of The Paper Market. .... And followed by a very sincere, Merry Christmas to you and yours. ..... You've come a long ways in the past few months but there is still much work to be done. ( grin thing )

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:48
Ted U>(Contrary Indicator) ID#364147:
Am gettin my quotes from the WRONG place ( DBC ) as they are showing Wed.'s close and I was too damn stupid to notice that it wasn't current ( goofy grin ) ...away ta smarten up~~~~~

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:48
Qestor@Observations U>(John Disney_A) ID#223146:
John Disney_A
I would appreciate a copy of your valuation model and spread sheet. please use the e-mail address [ wjmb@qestor.mv.com ]. To the provider and all participants of this forum I wish all a Merry and spiritual Christmas.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:48
Donald__A U>(@Myrmidon: Here is another big loser from derivative trading) ID#26793:
http://www.pathfinder.com/money/latest/rbus/RB/1997Nov19/457.html

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:41
PH in LA U>(PM consumer prices by weight) ID#225408:
Dessert Rat and Vronsky:

For what it's worth, I saw the same system of gold sales working the same way in Venezuela in the late 70's. They also sold a very high-content product starting, as I recall, at 18-karat.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:41
Earl U>(@Bernatz de Ventadorn.) ID#227238:
Nick@C: At once, I am both shocked to be told that Bernatz existed merely as someone's alter ego and dismayed at the, unwitting, collateral damage created in the effort to corral the less disciplined in our midst.

As it is when one realizes that S. Claus is merely a construct of those intent upon sugar coating hard reality, so it is equally disturbing to be told that M. Bernatz was not a real, wizzened denizen of the Pyranees.

Alter ego though he may bave been, M. Bernatz also possessed a personality uniquely his own. His loss is real. Special dispensation is in order. An impassioned entreaty to M. Kitner, soliciting same, shall be drawn up, forthwith.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:41
Myrmidon U>(@ LGB2) ID#345268:
The 200 million ozs. deficit for industrial usage could it be equivalent to $1 billion dollars investment for a group wishing again to corner the silver market? ( 200 mil ozs x $5 /oz. ) . I do not dispute the 200 million oz. deficit, but, I very much doubt that this is solely due to industrial usage, UNLESS someone is cornering the market.

Every photographic lab was equipped with recyclers for silver back in the early 80's. The price may go higher, but it is easy to recycle silver, that is the reason why it will soften from its highs.

I am glad you traded silver in the 70's. I did too, but remember nobody said that silver was up because of Hunt. Analysts et al were attributing the rise to industrial demand and that demand never materialized. When we learned the facts, we knew that the demand was Hunt.

We speculators, don't care why something is moving, as long as IT IS MOVING. However, it would surely help us to know if the rise in price will be maintained, so we don't have to be on the edge to get out in a hurry because someone could not meet his margin requirements.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:37
Contrary indicator U>(Ted, where can I get quotes?) ID#342285:
Where are you getting quotes from this evening? Kitco isn't updating.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:35
Donald__A U>(@LGB2) ID#26793:
Then you should be buying some so you can tell us about the fortune you made.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:34
Goldbug23 U>(Desert Rat) ID#432148:
Ur 22:09 is interesting, hope you continue posting. I agree, what has happened in Asia should promote owning gold, not only there. History shows all governments sooner or later debase their currency. Goes with the territory. And even in Las Vegas we have baht chains. Interesting.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:33
Donald__A U>(Kitco scoop! Now you know the rest of the story. (ala Paul Harvey)) ID#26793:
( 12/23 ) ... Russia called on the U. N. to speed up the weapons inspections so that sanctions could be lifted then Iraq can pay Moscow for the weapons purchases in the 1980s...

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:32
PH in LA U>(Typo in last post.) ID#225408:
Sorry, instead of far eastern oil concerns I really meant middle-eastern oil concerns.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:28
LGB2__A U>(@ Donald..Korea needs more...) ID#310407:
Ahh yes Donald, but Korea is UP 7%!!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:28
A.Goose U>() ID#200163:
MoreGold:

I could use that option on my gold stocks this year. You are right on, the PR moves won't do them any good. They will need to make serious moves. I agree with Vronsky, the serious moves will need to negatively impact the U.S. dollar. When that happens gold will move strongly.

I use to think that gold would move up slowly and then sort of surprise folks, now my thinking is that the move will be strong and fast, and gold's move will shock people.


Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:25
werner U>(AS YOU NOTICED TRADERS NEED REALLY REST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) ID#23195:
...

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:23
PH in LA U>(Silver in battery technology?) ID#225408:
During a reading of Another's posts while I was not yet accepted by the Kitco registration system, it occurred to me that perhaps the far eastern concerns with accepting a low price in American $'s was related to the announcements by major auto makers that they are very close to perfecting a new fuel cell battery system. Those announcements included the info that the coming fuel cells, which work by creating cleanly combustible substances from gasoline could be available for mass production as early as 2005. In addition to being nearly perfectly non-polluting, they would also be 85% - 90% efficient; as opposed to the internal combustion engine which presently opperates at around 40% efficiency. Such a doubling in efficiency would imply a much lower consumption rate which according to the laws of supply and demand would mean lower prices. Lower prices and lower consumption? Good cause for the restructuring in pricing suggested by Another. If this new technoloby would create a new demand for silver this would indeed be interesting news here at Kitco. Any engineers or otherwise knowledgeable parties out there in a position to confirm or disprove any of this? Please reply.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:23
vronsky U>(VERY INTERESTING STORY) ID#427357:
desert rat ( cultural respect for gold ) : Many thanks for sharing your first-hand and very interesting knowledge and experiences with us. They both support our belief that the Asian world has a deep rooted affinity for gold, which as you correctly point out could only have been enhanced by the current currency chaos and stock market meltdown sweeping all Southeast Asia today.

Pls post more often.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:22
Myrmidon U>(to all...) ID#345268:
Markets are closed ( on Dec. 26 ) in the UK for boxing day holiday.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:22
Donald__A U>((Yawn Thing) Korea will need more money than pledged so far.) ID#26793:
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971225/business/stories/korea_6.html

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:22
LGB2__A U>(@ Myrmidon) ID#310407:
All the speculation on Silvers use or lack thereof is well and fine, but what about the hard numbers Myr? namely, the actual current industrial consumption level of 200 million ounces or so over production levels, and a rapidly declining inventory?

Of course the hunt corner was the force that moved Silver to $50 / Oz. It was also that move that brought all the junk coin and Silverware into the smelters, not to mention fueling more effecient reclamation technologies. We are just now finally finishing the drawdown in the massive inventory created by that huge price bubble.

The folks who were urging Silver purcahse at $2.00 an ounce or so in mid 1970's, seem QUITE brilliant in retrospect. Remeber that even after the hunt debacel and the crash to $10/Oz. levels, SIlver continued making moves up into regions like $23/Oz. and $17/Oz. and $14/Oz. I remeber it well as I was trading in options back then and Made/Lost plenty on some of those moves.

Bottom line, when we look at the raw empiracal data on Silver usage/consumption vs. production, and drawdown in inventory, how can you sustain this theory that it isn't really being used at increased rates?

Merry Christmas, prosperous New Year,

The Lurkin One

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:19
werner U>(Merry christmas to all ) ID#23195:
Markets are closed in Brussels.TRADERS NEED REST after TURMOIL

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:13
LGB2__A U>(@ Earl) ID#310407:
Hey Earl, why the El Gee Bee reference on Christmas day! Even Sheller is being kind to me, as I shall to him as well ( thanks Mike for the insightful comments on Digital...I agree, the commercial and Mac graphics folks are now almost exclusively into either purely digital, or converted digital images.

Hey, where was I? Oh yes....Merry Christmas Earl you Curmudgeon you!

( P.S., I have deeply held religious convictions and spiritual experience, so converting the masses to total skepticism of life beyond the rational is not in my agenda.... )

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:13
Ted U>(Aurator) ID#364147:
G'day mate~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:13
Donald__A U>(Hashimoto says Japanese financial situation far more serious than he thought) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971225/japan_must_not_trigg_1.html

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:11
Ted U>(Nick(C)......and C$$$$..........and screw yer charts) ID#364147:
.03----could be worse ...eh!.....Too many Fosters eh Nick?

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:10
Myrmidon U>(@ ali_A) ID#345268:
ali, the battery watches are recyclable! The electronics now uses different alloys than silver. For example, printed circuit boards used to use silver, now hardly any.

Unless silver is used in great amount like electric car batteries, I think that we are going to have another bubble, without maintained prices.

Back in the 70's the silver gurus were basing their pitches to the public in the needs of silver in swimming pools. Chlorine requires silver. I believe. Well their supply/demand curves were not worth the paper in which they were drawn.

These guys were wrong 20+ years! I am an engineer and market analyst and I am the first to say that market analysts are dreamers. By the way, the same applies to economists. I have to be convinced on some sound analysis to justify increased industrial of silver.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:09
desert rat U>(cultural respect for gold) ID#269118:
I'm a long time lurker ,first time poster. Much of my first interest in
gold was inspired by reading a couple of books by Hoppe. I believe
Don was the first name. I think the title of one was How to invest
In Gold Stocks. I'm sure it is long out print , but is basically a well
done historical narrative of the commparative histories of sound vs.
fiat currencies. I also heard him speak at one of Blanchard's
conferencies in New Orleans. If one is able to obtain any of his
publications I am sure you will find it worth the effort.

My real education into the psychology of gold was initiated several
years later by spending 15 months in Thailand in 1972 an 73 . At that
time the average truck driver who was probably making $2 or at the
most $3 a day was wearing a 3 oz. 24 karat chain around his neck.
I will vouch for a previous poster regarding gold shops dealing in
baht chains and 24 karat rings . In Bangkok they weigh the item
considered for purchase,consult the daily gold quotes,add a fabrication
charge and that's the price. Fabrication was I think around 5 or 10 %
The average person on the street is light years ahead of denizen's
of the US in regard to ownership of PM. Regardless of the numerous
accounts in the media of brokerage vp's selling hot dogs I don't think
you will find the average person anywhere near as leveraged as here.

What prompted me to post however was a vacation trip over the
last couple of days to Las Vegas. I was cruising the strip for new Mom
and Pop Thai restaurants when I saw one with a small sign noting
that they bought and sold gold. We pulled over and had a meal,which
was quite good by the way. Inside the restaurant which was about
1200 sq.ft. was a small 30 sq. ft bar enclosed cubicle with a few
baht chains and 24 karat bracelets. I just found it fascinating that
during the 45 minutes that we were there over lunch hour no one else
came in to order food however at least 4 different orientals came in to
look at the few gold pieces that they had. Oh well, maybe just Christmas
shopping. But then again aren't they supposed to be of another
persuasion. No sales were transacted but mak mak gold envy.
In summary I believe that the oriental culture's esteem of gold
could have only been enhanced in light of recent currency debacles.
Apropos of nothing, I also survey immigrant workers in the course
of practicing my rudimentary Thai and Spanish. Nine out of ten immigrant workers say they have to work harder here to support their
family then where they came from. I remember asking a Korean
blackdealer where she had to work harder to sustain her self. One
of the fellow players looked at me and asked why I would ask such
a idiotic question. She wasted no time in informing him that in Korea
that women in that country very rarely had to be employed outside
the home at all and that it was a quite different situation here. Alas
that was months before the current currency debacle. We can only
hope that some sense of normalcy returns to the markets of our Asian
neighbors as soon as possible, less we pay who knows what price
in cleaning up the aftermath of the inevitable political fallout.
I must believe that not withstanding the appreciation of
gold in the Asian currencies their resolve to own the same could have
only been enhanced.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:08
SDRer__A U>(Barings Bank) ID#287277:
One

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:05
Donald__A U>(@Myrmidon: Orange County, Barings & Proctor & Gamble come to mind) ID#26793:
http://www.numa.com/bookshop/books/9036.htm

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:05
aurator U>(Fraud?) ID#255284:
Mymi Here's a start from Roy Davies in the UK

http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/scandals.html

BCCI, Barings, Sumitomo. Many more there to enjoy, and then there's your public library.

aurabookworm

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:03
werner U>(UNKNOWN MARKETS) ID#23195:
Entering a hostile market is a dangerous business for a trader, he easily looses all his assets.But at the end the market may loose all its traders ( clients ) .But a market that lets in doubtfull traders has also a big chance to close one day because of a crash.....
Both are bad and evel.....
your comments!!!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 22:02
223 U>(ali_A: Exactly.) ID#26669:
Now, imagine a future world where lead and cadmium are banned because they're too poisonous for widespread use. So this gives silver, which many of us carry around in our tooth fillings and dental bridges for fifty years without harm, a big advantage. Now our US government already costs industry billions of dollars for everything from 1.6 gallon toilets to h.e.p.a. filters to smokestack scrubbers. This will ( IMHO ) be the next frontier of government regulation!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:59
Donald__A U>(More trouble brewing in Mexico) ID#26793:
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971225/news/stories/mexico_2.html

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:56
Myrmidon U>(@ SDRer_A) ID#345268:
I know that certain financial institutions were involved in derivatives with deadly consequences. But I never had a good example of the mechanics of their failure. The WSJ often mentions the derivative issue, but never a detailed account of what happened.

And my concern is:

Are the derivatives blamed for some different type of mismanagement and the pocketing of large amounts of money by some crooks? Are the derivatives the scape goat?

I would like to know a specific institutional failure involving derivatives.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:56
MoReGoLd U>(@Asian Black Hole) ID#348286:
A.Goose: It certainly is a local problem, that will require local solutions.
As we and many others are saying the size of the problem is still unknown, and every time we get some kind of report, the numbers have doubled. Camdessus is dragging the G7 into a bottomless pit, that
will spread the problem to the new lenders ( us ) .
Vronsky is right that this could affect the US dollar at which point
Gold will really enter the picture.
An aside, one of the new reforms Japan is considering is to let the banks report book value of their stocks ( original price ) , instead of the current market value. What kind of confidence will this inspire?
Could I do this when im pledging collateral for a loan at my bank?

I hope the EMU is learning a lesson from this, and planning to hold more
Gold reserves than what is being talked about in the media.......

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:51
aurator U>(In a jugular vein..for the Gastrolloger) ID#255284:
Mike Sheller I knew it all along, you ARE a cannibal,or derived from cannibal ( that means YOU are a derivative! - I hope Myrma is taking notes )
The pre-European contact Maoris were also cannibals. The maori name for European is Pakeha ( Pa-key-hah ) while there are many possible origins of the name, few are flattering. One of the possible translations is long pig referring to the salty taste of pakeha, even when cooked for hours in a pot with the ubiquitous puha, a native vegetable like cress. A pakeha still tasted like a pig. But a dog, that was another matter. The maori dog ( kuri ) was fed on vegetables and milk ( yes even suckled ) it tasted like a fine veal according to early accounts..

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:51
Donald__A U>(Latest IMF-Korea agreement will force some banks to default on Dec. 31st) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971225/japan_korea_shortfal_2.html

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:51
ali__A U>(223; silver) ID#246272:
The biggest use for silver will be in electronics and batteries in particular.All new watches are electronic these days, billions of them and the batteries need silver in them.Then add all the millions of other electronic gadgets.Bodes well for silver.

Vronsky:UBS=Union Bank of Switzerland

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:47
Nick@C U>(Christmas exhuberance) ID#393224:
G'day all. I hope that tomorrow, those of you celebrating today, are not feeling as I am today, due to my exhuberance yesterday, not thinking of tomorrow, which, of course, is today.

G'day Ted. Have looked at the Canuck $$$ charts and have decided that the C$$$ will be worth @ 3 cents US by the end of January. I know a good brand of tent that you can put up on your new property ...

Earl and Mike Sheller ( said with hand covering throat ) . Unfortunately Bernatz is no longer with us as he was the alter-ego of another poster who IS still with us ( under a new handle ) . Perhaps Bart will think of a way for alter-egos to post.

Glad to see so many of you spending a bit of time today with your Kitco family.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:42
Donald__A U>(Seven habits of highly defective investors) ID#26793:
http://www.pathfinder.com:80/fortune/1997/971229/fir.html

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:42
SDRer__A U>(Myrmidon, on derivatives) ID#287277:
My own concern regarding derivatives is simply the degree to which
BANKS and other 'prudent fiduciary institutions' have become end-users of derivatives as well as traders. One assumes you place your own money
on the line, as is right and proper; there are those of us who feel
less sanguine when august financial institutions need to enter the
public market to lay-off their bets!

Too, there is the distinction between 'futures' the standarized contracts traded on the commodities exchanges that GUARANTEE both sides of the trade, and 'forwards' which are customized off-exchange arrangements with NO guarantor standing in between.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:42
Myrmidon U>(@ Mike Sheller) ID#345268:
Mike, do I conclude that our derivatives our good while others' are bad because we are speculating at a HIGHER LEVEL?...

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:37
A.Goose U>() ID#200163:
Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:54
MoReGoLd ( @JAPAN ) ID#348286:

Remember just a few weeks ago the Korean government played the same games for a few days. Governments forget that people evaluate markets not just on the direction BUT on who and why the markets are being bought or sold.
When Hong Kong, South Korea, ... Japan buy there own market, it does not make investors confident. Fundementals are what tell the tale. In the case of Japan, ... , South Korea, the government buying just allows more people to bail at higher prices and other people to set there shorts at higher prices.

Asia is a mess right now, and no one is going to waltz in until a bottom is made.

I suspect the bottom will be hit on or around when the U.S. dollar starts sinking. When Japan realizes that it must move away dollar trading and establish an Asian trading mechcanism then it will be able to set its markets aright.

IMHO.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:35
Myrmidon U>(to Donald) ID#345268:
Good point! Thanks. So I can conclude that a derivative in certain instances is thin air...

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:34
pagoda U>(haggis & sheller) ID#22650:
I guess I'll have to go see Batman now, but I got a preliminary good chuckle from Kalgoorlie. Thank you. Most eloquently put Mr. Sheller, my thoughts are now more defined. Thank you. There are Republicans and democrats, liberals, conservatives and other philosophies of isms. And then there are Free Men.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:33
Mike Sheller U>(I speculate, therefore I am ) ID#347447:
MYRMIDON: Take no heed of those who would deride speculation. To speculate is the GRANDEST human art. To think, which is what it truly means, about causes, effects, and logical outcomes, is the cornerstone of all progress, all discoveries, and all lasting human joy. Markets are made more fluid , more liquid, by speculators, not less so. Speculators share the risks of production with businesspersons who collect and create the commodities and corporations that serve our every need. Speculators risk their substance on their judgement, and reap the rewards they deserve. Investors are merely disappointed speculators. Did they not think through their rationale for investing,? Did they not assess the probable future of their choice? Is not investing really a more timid form of speculation? An investor a speculator in denial? Do not listen to the timid, ignorant, jealous souls who would blame speculators for every economic woe and ill. Speculators are merely those people in the marketplace who see the king has no clothes, and act accordingly. They do not need anyone's praise, nor do they warrant venom. The markets deal with them as their wisdom and karma determine. That should be enough for all of us, in a free country. Speculators are derided only by those who would put you in chains. Never stop speculating. For to do so is to cease to think, and take responsibility for it.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:31
A.Goose U>() ID#200163:
Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:54
MoReGoLd ( @JAPAN ) ID#348286:

Remember just a few weeks ago the Korean government played the same games for a few days. Governments forget that people evaluate markets not just on the direction BUT on who and why the markets are being bought or sold.
When Hong Kong, South Korea, ... Japan buy there own market, it does not make investors confident. Fundementals are what tell the tale. In the case of Japan, ... , South Korea, the government buying just allows more people to bail at higher prices and other people to set there shorts at higher prices.

Asia is a mess right now, and no one is going to waltz in until a bottom is made.

I suspect the bottom will be hit on or around when the U.S. dollar starts sinking. When Japan realizes that it must move away dollar trading and establish an Asian trading mechcanism then it will be able to set its markets aright.

IMHO.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:29
vronsky U>(... it would ruin my image) ID#427357:
Mike Sheller: An interesting anecdote about Bela Lagosi. It was he who Hollywood first offered the role of the Frankenstein Monster. But he TURNED IT DOWN on the grounds it would ruin his image. At that particualar time there was a near destitute flegging and little known English 'gentleman type' actor by the name of Boris Karloff... the rest is history.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:29
Myrmidon U>(@ 223) ID#345268:
Hard to believe that the oil companies will allow electric cars to get off the ground. The infrastructure to build huge power stations to charge these batteries will demand huge capital. Recharging stations must displace gas pump stations, etc.

I see electric cars as an exotic technology with pilot environmental programs to satisfy the environmentalists. Such cars I know exist, more efficient and they operate with 3=phase current by converting battery DC voltage to 3-phase for greater motor efficiency. At my company there is an experimental electric car program which requires 13 batteries, 12 volt each. The whole bed of the truck is full of batteries.

Regardless, even if electric cars in pilot production require silver for their batteries, this will be sufficient to push silver to higher levels.

How can one economically produce an electric car with silver at say $30?

Will it be like the shell oil from the rocks in Colorado? We heard enough of it in the 70's....

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:23
Donald__A U>(@Myrmidon) ID#26793:
When you use derivatives there are additional risks you must consider. In your ABX example you could be on the correct side of your trade on ABX and never get paid because the maker of the derivative folded before you had a chance to collect. Perhaps not a problem today but a BIG problem during the BIG crunch.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:21
Mike Sheller U>(Put away that mirror) ID#347447:
VRONSKY: I have no such lack in my life...my Mom was born in Lugosh, Hungary, Bela's hometown ( hence the name Bela Lugosi ) . My wife was a singer years ago and she did a few gigs with a band whose piano player was Bela's son. Keep your neck covered when you visit my family.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:19
Donald__A U>(Huh? Down 4.7% is leveling off?) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971225/japan_retail_sales_n_1.html

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:18
Ted U>(Holy Garbonzo Beans.............) ID#364147:
Feb.Gold up 2.40 @ 297.90~~~~~~~~~ Christmas is over in 100 minutes ( grin thing ) ....

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:15
vronsky U>(CRUDE OIL DATA) ID#427357:

Mr. Smith ( Crude oil data...Donald_A:

Go to the GOLD-EAGLE WEBSITE, then CLICK the Crude Oil button at the top of the page - it will take you to an array of Crude oil web-links:
http://www.gold-eagle.com

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:12
Myrmidon U>(to Panda) ID#345268:
Thanks for the info. So what is wrong being a speculator. I have ABX options well aware of the risks. Most of us we trade in futures and options. Calling derivatives as evil ( that is the message I get from some in this board ) it is unfair.

Being a speculator with calculated risks, or better exercising leverage it is only at times necessary for enhanced returns. Why so much time is consumed on the derivative issue, where the underwriter ( the option seller ) is often at greater risk as is the case for the put seller in a bear market. Any comments? Thanks.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:12
vronsky U>(ASIAN BLACK HOLE) ID#427357:
MoReGoLd: I couldn't agree MORE! But I'll tell you what would indeed fill the ASIAN BLACK HOLE... it's all the STILL UNKNOWN ( read hidden ) knowledge about the many ALREADY insolvent financial Japanese instutions. The Japanese Banking System is a lead house upon a bed of quicksand, the more it struggles, the deeper it will sink.

Eventually, it will be trading its foreign paper for gold life-rafts.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:09
werner U>(goldmarkets) ID#23195:
who decides when a individual portfolio goes up or down usualy the market does.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:07
Mr. Smith U>(Crude oil data...Donald_A) ID#347333:
Thank you Donald_A for the links, I got caught up in festivities and did not check them out till just now....what I am looking for is daily crude spot prices for 1997, and if there is a site that has data like that, I would hope to find data alll the way back to 1970. The site you suggested has charts, but no raw data ( dd-mmm-yy versus $/STB ) that I could detect. So I am still looking, if anybody knows where to find what I'm looking for, sing out!!! Along the same vein, I could use some data on spot gold prices ( dd-mmm-yy versus $/toz ) going back to 1970. I've looked at Kitco's and used some of it, but it is a pain in the ass to get it from there to MS Excel. Any leads in that direction would be appreciated too. Merry Christmas everyone.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 21:02
223 U>(Myrmidon: Silver fundamental wildcard) ID#26669:
I've seen in a couple of places now, the most recently on CNN's silver 'special report' that after photography and jewelry the third biggest use of silver is electronics. But I still think the wildcard will be the next generation of fuel cells and batteries to drive the cars of the future.

Whether we like them or not we will all be driving them in just a few years. Similar to Hitler's dabbling in automaking ( the 'folks-wagon' of the 1930's ) I think that Herr Klinton ( and Herr Gore if he gets elected ) will try to force cheap efficient zero emissions or low emissions vehicles at the expense of the present fossil energy distribution system ( at the expense of all those white males who work in it ) . And silver is one of the metals which may prove to be a cheap substrate for heavy duty platinum catalysts and fuel cells. It also is one of the metals which is used for industrial batteries and deep cycle batteries, but unlike the more popular lead and cadmium is nearly nontoxic.

Disclaimer: ( IMHO, of course. The last time I took a course in catalyst chemistry was in the early 1970's. It was just an undergraduate course. )

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:59
MoReGoLd U>(@Asia) ID#348286:
vronsky; I just get the feeling that no matter how much money is going to be poured into this Asian black hole, it's just going to get worse.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:58
panda U>(Myrmidon) ID#30116:
Myrmidon -- A derivative is an instrument that derives its' value from some underlying instrument. As an example, an option contract on a stock is a derivative security. The value of the option is related to the value of the underlying stock value plus a time premium. So to answer your question, yes you can buy derivatives. They go by the names of options, futures, options on futures, swaptions, etc....

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:55
vronsky U>(HIT THE DECK YOU SWABBIES... HERE COME THE KAMIKAZE !!) ID#427357:
Nikkei started trading slightly up early Friday morning in TOKYO. In the last few minutes a wave of selling began, leaving the stock average down 210 pints ( -1.4% ) as I speak.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:54
werner U>(Ok I AM TAKING OFF DONT REALLY KNOW WHAT I HAVE GOT MYSELF INTO) ID#23195:
BUT I HOPE IT WILL BE POSITIVE!!!!!
Any hints...

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:54
MoReGoLd U>(@JAPAN) ID#348286:
Was up earlier but now -201.60 -1.32%.
I though they just spent 3 Trillion yen to prop up the market.
Camdessus get over here...........

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:46
Myrmidon U>(To Mike Seller) ID#345268:
Thanks, now my next question is: Can someone buy this derivative? Is it something that is traded? If it is then can you short it? Thanks again.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:45
vronsky U>(ALL WERE ILLEGAL ALIENS) ID#427357:
Mike Sheller: If you will recall the three anti-social rascals ( Frankenstein, Count Dracula & the Wolfman ) fled Europe many years ago, and entered the US illegally, taking on the unlikely names of Boris Karloff, Bela Lagosi and Lon Chaney -- ya-see they wanted to fit-in so to speak.

Also, hear tell, in light of their expertise in silver, both Count Dracula and the Wolfman were advisors to the Hunt Brother Silver corner of 1979, when the Lagrimas de la Luna soared to $50/oz

GOSH, where the hell are those two today? Never can find a monster when ya really need one. WHERE ARE YOU GUYS

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:45
Prometheus U>(@John Disney) ID#189273:
Too quick with the enter key. Add an address and we're all set:
GARR@ix.netcom.com.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:44
Prometheus U>(@John Disney) ID#189273:
Hope it isn't too late to be added to your EMail list. Look forward to reading your analysis. Thank you, sir.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:42
Myrmidon U>(@ Vronsky) ID#345268:
Then president Clinton ( at a later interview shortly thereafter ) referred tothe Asian issue as a CRISIS!!!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:41
Mike Sheller U>(Myrmidon) ID#347447:
A derivative is a piece of paper designed to mimic the value, according to a particular arbitrary formula, of a piece of paper that mimics the value, according to another arbitrary formula, of a particular other piece of paper or material object. By the way, this being Christmas Day, has anyone pondered that the three Wise Men ( astrologers by the way ) came in search of the newborn Lord bearing Gold, Frankincense, and Myrrh? Does anyone know when the CBOT delisted Frankincense & Myrrh futures contracts? Perhaps this is the Frankincense that Vronsky mistook for a well-known resident of Transylvania.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:33
vronsky U>(BC WITH FOOT STILL STUCK IN MOUTH) ID#427357:

SDRer_A: Talking about what some people have said, and hadn't ought to:

Not too long ago on a nationally televised Talk Show, Preseident Clinton was asked what he thought of the Asian Financial Crisis. His answer still has not a few mouths gapped open:

WE HAVE A FEW LITTLE GLITCHES IN THE ROAD HERE...

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:33
Mike Sheller U>(Merry Christmas to Earl) ID#347447:
...and to Earl a good nite! Yes, my friend, I too miss Bernatz. I believe he was trapped in an avalanche several hundred years in the making. I think we should send a search party into the Pyranees ( sic ) . I will carry the brandy cask. That should attract his feeble cries.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:32
Myrmidon U>(To all...) ID#345268:
I apologize for my ignorance, but for the many years ( 25+ ) I have watched the markets, I still do not know what is exactly a derivative. I would be most appreciative for a brief explanation of the term. May be there others like me who would also like to know.

Thanks for the kind gentleman, ( or lady ) who will be kind enough to clarify the term.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:28
Mike Sheller U>(Children of the night...what music they make!) ID#347447:
VRONSKY: Crazy am I? We'll see who's crazy! I think Dr. Frankenstein practiced in environs other than Transylvania. I am sure you are mistaking his office location for that of the more urbane, but certainly no less individualistic, Count Dracula. Of course, what with the emphasis on Full Moons at this site in recent months, we could hardly leave out Mr. Lawrence Talbot, aka the Wolfman, from consideration in this discussion, could we? I believe he was an avid silver futures trader, much preferring coins and bullion bars over bullets. And, I believe, while Count Dracula traded silver as well, he was notoriously wary of spikes!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:25
werner U>(Marketplayer) ID#23195:
How are people supposed to know that they are members in the goldmarket
Some of them have a visit at A Greenspan 's house wait for some marketinformation and nothing happens.So they wonder what to do ,why etc
So a lot of confusion,misunderstandings etcIn most markets you have an informationdesk Where is it in the goldmarket Or do marketplayers have to guess

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:23
Earl U>(Discourse on good and evil.) ID#227238:
Mike Sheller: Your address to Pagoda was well put. It is far better that we be allowed to make our own mistakes - for good or ill - than to be hectored into the conventional wisdom.

But again, for the zillionth time: The favorite passtime of the Boobus Americanus is to reform the bad habits of his neighbors. ..... It is, after all, the primary motivation of both El Gee Bee and his alter ego Monsieur Karlitto 99. ,,,,,,

Speaking of Monsieurs: Where the hell is Bernatz? ..... Merry Christmas Mon Ami. Where ever you are.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:20
Haggis__A U>(Platinum in Australia... 10 projects of interest. Sorry about format.) ID#398105:


Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:20
SDRer__A U>(Vronsky reflects on Frankenstein...) ID#28593:
Yes dear Vronsky. Very bad of me, I know, but I do so enjoy recalling
what people said before they could know that they shouldn't have
said THAT ( at least not have said it in that way ) .


JTF@Home, so sorry to read about your wife down with the flu! Somehow, being ill at a happy time is a more difficult and dismaying proposition than just being miserably ill in the regular course of things. Hope you will all be well and in top trim for the New Year!

A. Goose, how about this lil gem:
At a conference in New York in early summer 1995, Walker Todd, maverick lawyer and historian from Tennessee who had been assistant general counsel of the Cleveland Fed, called attention to the losses some midwestern banks had taken on their portfolios of structured notes. Speaking as the supervisor of the New York banks, Ernest Patrikis, formerly general counsel and now first vice president of the New York Fed...replied that it was really important for the government NOT to interfere too heavily with the growth of the derivatives market, because if the money-center banks couldn't deal in derivatives, they might do something really risky, like making loans.
Mayer, The Bankers, The Next Generation p.307

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:19
Haggis__A U>(Platinum projects in Australia) ID#398105:
G'Day from Kalgoorlie.

The following listing does not cover all projects, but only those that may have development potential.1. Moorkie - Litte Darling Creek, Golden Cross Resources NL. Early stage exploration: rock chip sampling running up to 8.02 g/t platimum, 35.5 g/t palladium. 2. Mulga Springs, Golden Cross Resources NL. Drilling and bulk sampling: up to 4m@ 5.1 g/t platimum. 120 Kg sample went 19.6 g/t platinium, 50 g/t palladium, 3 g/t rhodium, 3g/t osmium, 2 g/t ruthenium, 4.7 g/t iridium. 3. Syerston, Uranium Australia NL. 52Mt @ 0.762% Ni, 0.13% Co: 20 Mt @ 0.81% Ni, 1.18% Co, 0.37 g/t Pt. 38.3 Mt @ 2.07 Cr. 4. Giles Complex. Undeveloped due to Aboriginal land claim. Possible future VERY LARGE resource. This is a major virginal ultramafic province. Numerous long pending applicant, including Delta Gold Nl. 5. Copper Hills, Australian Paltinum Mines Nl.
Early stage exploration, assays up to 8 oz/t platinium, palladium and gols, 15oz/t silver. 6. Giles Complex. Vast virgin mafic-ultramafic complex. Complex on the size sacale of the Bushveld Complex in South Africa. Remote location in central Australia. 7. Munni Munni Complex, Great Central Mines, EAST Coast Minerals, Legend Mining NL. 20 to 30 Mt @ 3 g/t PGM, 0.3% Cu, 0.2% Ni - Inferred resource, exploration potential open. Early days. Main mineralised horizon is DOUBLE the width of the Merensky Reef in South Africa. Reefs are sub-vertical. Project has suffered from on-going take over of companies. Maybe J Gutnick will do something with this. Possible take over of GCM by Normandy. 8. Panton Sill, 80% Helix Resources, 20% Gencor of South Africa. 2.1 Mt@ 6.04 g/t PGM. Early stages of exploration and evaluation, upside. 9. Wundimurra Complex, Precious Metals Australia. Principally a Vanadium play at this time, with in-situ reserves of 50MT @ 0.6% V2O5, inferred resources of 300Mt @ 0.6 V2O5. PGM potntial not fully assessed due to deep weathering profile. This and adjacent complexes are on the scale of the Bushveld in South Africa. early days. 10.Weld Range, Dragon Mining and Sons of Gwalia.Major platiunum target, early days. Aye, Haggis

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:16
Haggis__A U>(Platinum projects in Australia) ID#398105:
G'Day from Kalgoorlie.

The following listing does not cover all projects, but only those that may have development potential.

1. Moorkie - Litte Darling Creek, Golden Cross Resources NL.

Early stage exploration: rock chip sampling running up to 8.02 g/t platimum, 35.5 g/t palladium.

2. Mulga Springs, Golden Cross Resources NL.

Drilling and bulk sampling: up to 4m@ 5.1 g/t platimum. 120 Kg sample went 19.6 g/t platinium, 50 g/t palladium, 3 g/t rhodium, 3g/t osmium, 2 g/t ruthenium, 4.7 g/t iridium.

3. Syerston, Uranium Australia NL.

52Mt @ 0.762% Ni, 0.13% Co: 20 Mt @ 0.81% Ni, 1.18% Co, 0.37 g/t Pt.

38.3 Mt @ 2.07 Cr.

4. Giles Complex.

Undeveloped due to Aboriginal land claim. Possible future VERY LARGE resource. This is a major virginal ultramafic province. Numerous long pending applicant, including Delta Gold Nl.

5. Copper Hills, Australian Paltinum Mines Nl.

Early stage exploration, assays up to 8 oz

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:15
Haggis__A U>(Platinum projects in Australia) ID#398105:
G'Day from Kalgoorlie.

The following listing does not cover all projects, but only those that may have development potential.

1. Moorkie - Litte Darling Creek, Golden Cross Resources NL.

Early stage exploration: rock chip sampling running up to 8.02 g/t platimum, 35.5 g/t palladium.

2. Mulga Springs, Golden Cross Resources NL.

Drilling and bulk sampling: up to 4m@ 5.1 g/t platimum. 120 Kg sample went 19.6 g/t platinium, 50 g/t palladium, 3 g/t rhodium, 3g/t osmium, 2 g/t ruthenium, 4.7 g/t iridium.

3. Syerston, Uranium Australia NL.

52Mt @ 0.762% Ni, 0.13% Co: 20 Mt @ 0.81% Ni, 1.18% Co, 0.37 g/t Pt.

38.3 Mt @ 2.07 Cr.

4. Giles Complex.

Undeveloped due to Aboriginal land claim. Possible future VERY LARGE resource. This is a major virginal ultramafic province. Numerous long pending applicant, including Delta Gold Nl.

5. Copper Hills, Australian Paltinum Mines Nl. LkAmN

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:08
A.Goose U>(Deritatives Drive Down Doubtful Debtors in Deliberate Downfall) ID#200163:

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 19:37
SDRer__A ( A. Goose, in the hinterlands )

Not to worry SDRer, you learned your lesson early. Now you are key in understanding the workings of currency and the secrets of the declining dollar. No goose in its right mind will mess with you now.
Oooopps, to much wine.

SDRer:

We have spoke of deritatives for a long time now. We have seen only a few fall from their mistakes. Those that fell, were slain in a clamer market. It would seem that you are correct in assuming that there is much hidden blood. Mergers can hide some of it, but still some would have to collapse in full view. The happenings of the last 4 weeks must have many on the edge if not over it. The IMF funds would not even come close to wetting the appetites of the unhappy creditors.

IMHO


Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:07
vronsky U>(U+B+S) ID#427357:
What does the acronym UBS REALLY STAND FOR and mean? Since it is still Christmas, I will not blaspheme... until tomorrow!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 20:01
werner U>(rules) ID#23195:
who detemines what is good or evil?One condition to have a sain market
is that people know the rules .If people dont know them there will be anarchie.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 19:51
Myrmidon U>(@ LGB@ on silver) ID#345268:
Back in the 70's the same talk prevailed: Expanding consumption, limited production, photographic usage, jewelry etc. All proved what? In vain analysts where praising silver, and if it wasn't for the Hunts, silver - I doubt it would have made a move.

In reviewing the silver demand for jewelry, one can say that an oz. here or there - lets be realistic - will not be the principal component for a move in silver. People will pay large amounts of money not for the silver, but the jewelry aspect of it. The fashion is out for silver. I have talked to many ladies, trying to see how the view silver, and they all want the real thing, GOLD.

Photographic film usage is flat, digital camcorder technology has turned many camera hobbyists into camcorders. But lets bear in mind that photographic silver is recoverable!

Dentistry too, has gone to other alloys, but even if it hadn't, the usage would be limited to a few mg. per mouth.

The only positive expectation would be if manufacturers started again to use silver for knives and forks. I am amazed they have not done it yet.

Maybe someone is trying to corner the market, and as soon as the price reaches $10 or better, the coin shops will be lined with people cashing in their grandparents silver. IMHO I see a limited upside for silver, let alone a sustained price above $10. I wish the case for silver price increase had better fundamental factors.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 19:49
vronsky U>(UBS STATEMENT BLACK HUMOR? ) ID#427357:

SDRer_A: The statement made by UBS's Marcus Rollbacher might have been a Freudian slip, or at least black humor:

Derivatives allow you to DECOMPOSE the company into RANDOM parts and reassemble them at will.” ( UBS was reportedly the largest player in the market. )

Isn't that what Dr. Frankenstein did in Transylvannia about 80 years ago: He took randomly collected decomposed human parts, and reassembled them at will into the monster infamously known to us more mature ( read older ) guys at Kitco as the Frankenstein Monster. ( Sarcastic grin thingy )

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 19:43
Mike Sheller U>(Good & Evil) ID#347447:
PAGODA: You are actually making a case for what some call Natural Law, and others Karma, but all mean the just results of Cause and Effect. It is only through the experience of the results of human action that people learn, ultimately, what to do, and what not to do. What is right, and what is wrong. And WHY. Government interference is usually the imposition of a consensus that may be not only seriously flawed, but entirely deluded. It is better to live one's life freely under one's OWN delusions, and make whatever mistakes obtain, than to be restricted and chained by the delusions of others, and be degraded to a lifeless and grey mean by the process.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 19:39
vronsky U>(KOREA UP MORE THAN 7%) ID#427357:
Must be the IMF buying up paper... first crack out of the box and Korean stocks are up more than 7%.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 19:37
SDRer__A U>(A. Goose, in the hinterlands ) ID#287277:
My dear A. Goose,
Here are the quotes.
First, may I say Email from SF to Australia and Germany is faster than to/from Lake T.! We could walk our messages, and get faster results!

From Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, quoting an anonymous trader ( anonymous for obvious reasons )
“the head of the derivatives department isn’t going to go to the chairman of the firm and say there is a one-in-100,000 chance that he could blow the firm up. You’d never be in the business if you were willing to admit that it may happen.”

UBS ( Consider the merger in light of THIS statement ) :
Marcus Rollbacher , “Derivatives are essential to our strategy. We work on transactions where a series of derivatives permit a company to change its whole risk profile. Derivatives allow you to DECOMPOSE the company into RANDOM parts and reassemble them at will.”
( UBS was reportedly the largest player in the market. )

Scott Pardee, MIT Ph.D., when chairman of Yamaichi International in New York ( previously chairman foreign-exchange trader for the Fed and chief interest- rate trader for Discount Corporation of America,

“...each derivative product is an exercise in product differentiation. As sellers of futures and options products, we are always seeking new strategies which will generate more COMMISSIONS or trade at a wider bid-spread than we can earn on the underlying product.” from “Technology, Regulation and Competition in US Financial Services” remarks by Scott Pardee, Chairman, Yamaichi International ( America ) , at an “Industry Summit” sponsored by MIT and the World Economic Forum, Sept 9, 1993, mimeo, p.8.

OK, A. Goose, Attack! I, at eight, was accosted by an angry goose. They extend their wings, hiss, running straight at you, and aiming--I believe--for the eyes.

Merry Christmas!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 19:36
Mike Sheller U>(Silver & Photography) ID#347447:
LGB: Your comments re silver & photography were interesting. I tend to agree with your assessment relative to the increasingly prosperous 3rd world market, and the general tendency of human nature to take the easiest, cheapest, most efficient path in this pursuit. I do wish to point out that, from my perspective in the Advertising/Promotion industry ( one of my long-term hats ) most of the professional studio photographers I deal with are already digital converts, and this trend is spreading quickly among location, journalistic, and art photographers as well. The graphics business in general is now 98% digitized, and the pro photo segment is rapidly falling into line. True, the big cost and time savings lie in such studio tasks as catalog work and shots for creative composites - things Mom & Pop photographer find alien. But perhaps the burgeoning market for rest of the woirld casual photography growth is being compensated against, SOMEWHAT, by the growing use of digital among the pros. I have been a professional photographer in the past, and some of the new digital cameras are quite wonderful. Doubtless they will get better and better, but, I must agree with you that it will take a while before they are a threat to the general mass market.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 19:29
Ray U>() ID#411149:
Dubai’s gold imports skyrocket: Report ( Citizen Business, Jhb. )

DUBAI.- Dubai, the Middle East’s main re-export centre for gold, imported nearly
600 tons of the yellow metal ( about 20% more than South Africa’s total annual
production. Ed. ) from January through November ( 1997 ) , beating its own record
for gold imports in the same period last year, the World Gold Council said
yesterday

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 19:27
midas U>(IMF action in Korea) ID#345425:
The simplest analysis of IMF action:

hostile take-over of Korea by IMF controling interests.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 19:27
panda U>(Interest in gold on the rise?) ID#30116:
When I first came across Steven Kaplan's page, the neutral page hit rate was around 300. I see now that he considers 1180 hits a day neutral. A four fold increase in the hit rate. Increased interest in gold or very insecure goldbugs? I think the former.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 19:23
Haggis__A U>(pagoda...............) ID#398105:
G'Day from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

Did you write the BATMAN screen play?

You appear to engender a spirit of challange. Why not keep your house key in a bucket of similar unmarked keys next to you front door!

Compilments of the season.

Aye, Haggis



Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 19:17
pagoda U>(jtf) ID#22650:
We must never stop hoping, learning or trying, but even being aware of the cycles, human nature being what it is will repeat the same mistakes. In our present ( human ) condtion, the best one can hope for is for good to pre-dominate over evil. When good relaxes its vigilance and discipline, then we allow for evil to influence the momentum. If it goes too far, then the pendulum swings the other way and we go through the cycle of trying to swing it back. This does not happen quickly nor without misery and sacrifice. I think that human behavior ( Iben Browing, Raymond Wheeler et.al. ) is influenced by the ebb and flow of the cosmos and we can do nothing to stop these influences only to be aware of them and work with them. I think that the only way to do this effectively is to deal on the spiritual plane. This is why I think that humanist/socialist based philospies are doomed to failure, because they seek to direct human behavior without recognizing human frailty as a part of the individuals freedom to act as an individual. If we did not have evil, what would be our reference point for determining what is good? Who or what determines good and evil? Religious teachings do and that is why they are similar in their ultimate objectives. The state is not qualified to do so because it enforces its standards by coercion. The church ( es ) do the same thing ( use coercion ) in the name of God but they are not God, but humans acting as God ( exhibiting their humaneness ) . Lacking spirituality, gold is the tangible representation of the spirit we are lacking, something that will lose its meaning in a spiritual golden age.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 19:05
Carl U>(JTF) ID#333131:
Your mention of post WW1 put me in mind of a ( perhaps stretched ) analogy of Germany's blaming war reparations for their disastrous economy and what will certainly be Asian blame placing on foreign banks and the IMF for what is to come there. I don't think any of us has a very good grasp of the role politics will play in this mess and the resulting government changes it will bring about.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 18:59
ROR U>(Carl) ID#35767:
Hey Most Americans probably miss the old USof A. What isnt a lie in our country today?=definition of rarity. Tally Spin!!!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 18:34
panda U>(Eye in the sky for sale....) ID#30116:
Now you can reallllllly keep an eye on anyone, anywhere.... All you 'sun bathers', beware! :- )

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971225/satellite_1stld_1.html

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 18:30
Donald__A U>(IMF responds to anti IMF Washington Post columnist) ID#26793:
James K. Glassman misunderstands the recent role of the
International Monetary Fund in Asia. His claim that by making
its financial resources available to Korea, the IMF is stifling
reform, competition and economic recovery is just wrong, and
his advice to allow the future to take its own vivid course is
plain dangerous.

In its IMF-supported program, the Korean government has
committed itself to liberalize trade, open wider the doors for
foreign entry into its domestic financial sector, cease the
directed lending and subsidies that favored privileged
corporations and aided the system of chaebols ( huge
conglomerates ) and take many other steps to open its economy
much further to free-market forces.

Is American taxpayers' money wasted in footing the United
States' share of the bill for IMF assistance to Korea and other
countries? The IMF makes loans, not grants. The interest on
loans goes back to our shareholders. Successive Democratic
and Republican administrations consistently have supported an
IMF of adequate technical and financial clout because, as
President Reagan put it to the world's finance ministers and
central bank governors assembled in Washington for the IMF
Annual Meetings in 1983: The IMF is the linchpin of the
international financial system. Among officialinstitutions, it
serves as a counselor, coaxing the world economy toward
renewed growth and stability. At various times in its history, the
IMF has provided important temporary balance of payments
assistance to its member nations -- including my own. At times,
it must play the `Dutch uncle,' talking frankly, telling those of us
in government things we need to hear, but would rather not.

The IMF was set up in 1945 and has among its goals the
promotion of world trade, thereby contributing to growth
among nations. IMF financing is to be made available to
members to help them deal with balance of payments
problems. Mr. Glassman ignores history by asking the world to
follow his vivid course, which, unfettered by international
assistance to Korea and concerted action through the IMF,
would produce deeper industrial collapses and more
widespread loan defaults and bank failures. Such a future
course would lead us back to the past, to the 1930s era of
competitive devaluations, punitive trade barriers and closed
capital markets -- an era in which all economies, including that
of the United States, would be worse off.

SHAILENDRA J. ANJARIA

Director, External Relations Department

International Monetary Fund

Washington

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 18:22
LGB2__A U>(Emerald Heights............................Silver halide vs. Digital and other SIlver issues) ID#316409:
Finally found your 12:04 of yesterday. Re Digital photography's possible inroads into Silver usage in conventional Silver halide photography. So far, we've seen the OPPOSITE occur. Namely, the market for Silver Halide has expanded even faster than Digital's market share.

Personally, I would expect this trend to continue for many years. Why? because rapidly expanding third world nation economy photographers ( which could now number potentially in the billions ) , will buy small inexpensive camera's to take those snapshots. Most will never have the bucks to get into expensive camera's and the computers to store/manipulate the imgaes.

Your typical family photographer, Mom, Grandpa, etc. will also stick with Silver Halide because they don't want to mess with expensive computer revolution products, and/or the simplicity and quality is better.

Add to these factors, the fact that Digital remains quite inferior in resolution, and much higher in price, than your basic, inexpensive, 35 mm camera, and we'll see that Digital photography, will expanding, will not gobble up Silver Halide photo's anytime soon.

Then we have emerging nation industrial consumption and jewelry consumption on the rise, coupled with the shortages developing, the continued drawdown in COMEX inventory, the consumption outpacing production by 200 million ounces annually or so, the strength of Silver's meteroic 6 month rise in the face of Gold's decline, the potential for a cornering type move in a commodity that is now at a 12 year low in inventory.

All the makings of further price increases IMNHO.

Merry Christmas to all and a prosperous new year.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 18:20
aurator U>(Crusty, you old softy) ID#255284:
Good morning!

Now that's a fine and generous offer you made, and I'd like to take it
up, if I may.

salty

Cmax: Bravo your 09:18.! Thereby we all become sharper, more aware of the pulses of this universe.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 18:11
JTF U>(Donald,all) ID#57232:
Your early warning system is still better than my Dad's -- his was about 40 years too early -- but it did get me started -- and I am now much better prepared!

A little holiday comment -- no -- I'm stone sober!

Here's to the future of human kind -- that we overcome our current crisis -- and reach for the stars!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 18:06
JTF U>(Carl - Your Russian post) ID#57232:
Our president ( BC ) would be wringing his hands if he got a 10% rating. This means that there must be a sea change in Russia very soon -- doesn't look good. Take over by the military after a winter crisis such as the famine predicted by the Russian Red Cross? Simple return to Communism seems unlikely. Are we seeing a repeat of what happened to Germany after WWI? I hope not!

One thing I've learned from reviewing cycles is that war/strife is a natural part of human existence, whether we like to admit it or not....

But we must never give up hope for the better, and we must never stop learning.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 18:03
vronsky U>(WHY, PRAY TELL?) ID#427357:

OLD GOLD ( Japanese stocks ) - REF your comment Vronsky: Don't get too bearish on Japanese stocks at these depressed levels. Best long-term risk/reward going except for gold.

GOLD GOLD, as you well know, I and a host of GOLD-EAGLE contributors ( ORACLE et al ) have been harping and carping for over one year now about Japan's being between a Rock & A Hardspot for numerous well-documented reasons. We have given exhaustive supporting arguments, including numbers, tables, graphs for our views on the Nippon dilema.

Your infintely brief observation and implication that Japanese stocks might NOT deserve an extreme bearish opinion does NOT do justice to your analytical ability... and might even offend those Kitco amd GOLD-EAGLE thinkers who are always open to well-thought out arguments. But should you have the time, I challenge you to present your OP-ED position, which I will post at GOLD-EAGLE, AND OF COURSE YOU POST IT AT KITCO.

As an old-dog student of the markets, I am always willing to learn. Other than a rapidly plunging Nikkei value, I see little to warrant a comparison with GOLD's HISTORICALLY unprecedented RISK/REWARD RATIO.
Am I missing something... pray tell?

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 17:51
Donald__A U>(@JTF) ID#26793:
Early warning is my weak point, about 10 years to early!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 17:50
Carl U>(Poll: Russians miss the good old days. Gov. approval at 10%) ID#333131:

4:13 PM ( ET ) 12/25
Poll: Many Russians Miss U.S.S.R.
MOSCOW ( AP ) -- Most Russians now regret the breakup of the Soviet Union, according to a poll released Thursday.
According to the survey by the Public Opinion Fund, 61 percent of Russians are unhappy about the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, up sharply from 33 percent in December 1992.
The pollsters questioned 1,500 people nationwide, Interfax reported. No margin of error was given.
The people most unhappy about the breakup were retirees, who have fared the worst during the economic restructuring of Russia since the Soviet collapse. Young people were less likely to disapprove of the breakup, the pollsters said.
The Public Opinion Fund also said only 10 percent of poll respondents approved of the job the Russian government is doing, down from 12 percent in October and 13 percent in September.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 17:45
JTF U>(A little missive for tolerant1) ID#57232:
Happy holidays to you - and may whatever problems you are having be resolved well. We at Kitco also learn from you -- because few people are like you -- willing/eager to learn at every step in life. That is a rare quality indeed -- and probably one of the most precious.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 17:36
Donald__A U>(@Mr. Smith; This is a better site but registration required) ID#26793:
http://www.ogjonline.com/index.shtml

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 17:23
JTF U>(Donald -- Bravo for your 07:36!) ID#57232:
Merry Christmas everyone! Spouse flu is better but we will not go to San Francisco as planned this year -- will do something locally instead. So much for the flu vaccine she took and I didn't.

Donald -- That post was impressive -- the Kondratiev wave in a nutshell.

If you can, please see if you can help us with some sort of early warning system we can use while us more adventursome Gold bugs ( like me ) try to ride the Gold Bug Gold Stock Tsunami! I think the Gold stocks will do very well right now as long as we are in an inflationary trend in the US.

But -- that Chaos/turbulence/froth/firestorm etc of deflation will hit all paper money when it hits. After the deflationary bubble pops, gold stocks will be safe again.

All I can think of doing is to watch the US dollar. As long as it is stable, I would guess that the gold stocks are a safe ride.

Ideas for those adventursome gold bugs who are not satisfied with physical gold?

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 17:11
Schultz U>(Bear Market) ID#287305:
I got up early this morning, couldn't sleep. Turned on MSNBC which normally has several market review programs on early in the morning. Sorry for not remebering the name of the show of the commentators, but I recognized all of their faces as being the reassuring stock gurus that are always chanting not to worry every time the DOW starts to tank.

On this program they were having a lively discussion about whether or not we were going to experience inflation and a bear market in 1998.

There were 3 panelists and a moderator. Two of the 3 contributors agreed that we were going to have inflation and one of the commentators actually stated the following:

1 ) He believed AG was currently printing billions to bail out
a large number of currencies, not just the Won.

2 ) It was likely that we are entering a bear market.

3 ) Stocks may never perform as well as they have in the past.

4 ) When attacked by the 2 other commentators, this commentator held his ground and repeated his statements with a high degree of certainty and quickly ticked off a dozen reasons to support
his statements.

Only a few weeks ago these words would have been considered blasphemy. I almost fell off my seat when I heard these things being stated on a nationally syndicated NBC market analysis program.

This could signal a sea change in the major networks treatment of these issues. It appears the suits are starting to get nervous about their outrageously one-sided portrayal of the market and are slowly introducing contrarian views that all is not well.

Programs such as are going to have a huge affect on the hynotized, accept anything they say, lemming sentiment. It looks like the networks are starting to see the writing on the wall and don't want to look like complete idiots later.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 17:01
Donald__A U>(@Mr. Smith: Scroll down to energies) ID#26793:
http://www.compassfinancial.com/charts.html

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 16:59
John Disney__A U>(mailing list) ID#24140:
for neil - happy to send you stuff but you forgot your email address

for KO - good point on Prime R. However, eps must reflect byproduct

credit for Silver. - ( ie 12 mill oz - or 12 *6.3/300= 250,000 oz of

gold equivalent ) - problem with prime appeard to be low reserves of

gold. However they do have good cash levels. Cant get a fix on

ag reserves

for laryn - Easy to do Kloof and Vaal as soon as get set up on spread sheet.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 16:54
Donald__A U>(Steve Roach prediction: 30 year Treasuries over 7% by mid 1998) ID#26793:
http://lp-llc.com/cents/roach.shtml

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 16:54
KCTrader U>(vronsky) ID#270165:

My DTN news feature says that markets are open Friday with similar hours as Wednesday's early closes except Comex and Nymex which will trade normal hours. Any word on spot metals in Japan yesterday ( Dec 25 ) ?

KCT

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 16:45
Mr. Smith U>(Merry Christmas to all) ID#347333:
I would like to plot the price of crude oil versus gold. Does anybody know where there is data for oil?

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 16:38
Donald__A U>(Zhonghua Automobiles (Only available in red?)) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971224/china_exports_first__1.html

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 16:23
glenn U>(COMEX INFO) ID#376309:
What to know what the Official High/Low/Close was for a comex metal
Want to know if COMEX is going to close early or have a holiday
Want to know about COMEX metal stocks
Want to know Open Interest or Volume

Call 212-299-2332

You only pay for the cost of the call.
It's menu driven and there 24 hours per day.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 16:10
Donald__A U>(@Vronsky) ID#26793:
Barron's says business as usual for Friday.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 16:08
GW U>(A short Canadian Christmas story of old) ID#429245:
Hope all at Kitco are having a Merry Christmas.

This was written about eighty years ago and appears in a book called
Literary Lapses. As the author has been dead for over fifty years I am
assured by a professor of English at the University of Ottawa that I am not
infringing on any copyright..

Hoodoo McFiggan's Christmas by Stephan Leacock

This Santa Claus business is played out. It's a sneaking, underhand
method, and the sooner it's exposed the better.

For a parent to get up under cover of the darkness of night and pass
off a ten-cent necktie on a boy who has been expecting a ten-dollar watch,
and then say that an angel sent it to him, is low, undeniably low.
I had a good opportunity of observing how the thing worked this
Christmas, in the case of young Hoodoo McFiggan, the son and air of the
McFiggans, at whose house I board.

Hoodoo McFiggan is a good boy--a religious boy. He had been given to
understand that Santa Claus would bring nothing to his father and mother
because grown-up people don't get presents from the angels. So he saved up
all his pocket-money and bought a box of cigars for his father and a
seventy-five-cent diamond broach for his mother. His own fortunes he left in
the hands of the angels. But he prayed. He prayed every night for weeks that
Santa Claus would bring him a pair of skates and a puppy-dog and an air-gun
and a bicycle and a Noah's ark and a sleigh and a drum--altogether about a
hundred and fifty dollars' worth of stuff.

I went into Hoodoo's room quite early Christmas morning. I had an
idea that the scene would be interesting. I woke him up and he sat up in
bed, his eyes glistening with radiant expectation, and began hauling things
out of his stocking.

The first parcel was bulky, it was done up quite loosely and had an
odd look generally.

Ha! ha! Hoodoo cried gleefully, as he began undoing it. I'll bet
it's the puppy dog, all wrapped up in paper!
And was it the puppy dog? No, by no means. It was a pair of nice,
strong, number-four boots, laces and all, labeled, Hoodoo from Santa
Claus, and underneath Santa had written, 95 net.

The boys jaw fell with delight. It's boots, he said, and plunged in
his hand again.

He began hauling away at another parcel with renewed hope on his face.
This time the thing seemed like a little round box. Hoodoo tore the
paper off it with a feverish hand. He shook it, something rattled inside.
It's a watch and chain! It's a watch and chain! he shouted. Then
he pulled the lid off.

And was it a watch and chain? No. It was a box of nice, brand-new
celluloid collars, a dozen of them all alike and all his own size.
The boy was so pleased that you could see his face crack up with
pleasure.

He waited a few minutes until his intense joy subsided. Then he
tried again.

This time the packet was long and hard. It resisted the touch and
had a sort of funnel shape.

It's a toy pistol! said the boy, trembling with excitement. Gee I
hope there are lots of caps with it! I'll fire some off now and wake up father.
No, my poor child, you will not wake your father with that. It is a
useful thing, but it needs not caps and it fires no bullets, and you cannot
wake a sleeping man with a tooth-brush- a regular beauty, pure bone all
through, and ticketed with a little paper, Hoodoo from Santa Claus.
Again the expression of intense joy passed over the boy's face, and
the tears of gratitude started from his eyes. He wiped them away with his
tooth-brush and passed on.

The next packet was much larger and evidently contained something
soft and bulky. It was too long to go into the stocking and was tied outside.
I wonder what this is. Hoodoo mused, half afraid to open it. Then
his heart gave a great leap, and he forgot all his other presents in
anticipation of this one. It's the drum! he gasped. It's the drum, all
wrapped up!

Drum nothing! It was pants--a pair of the nicest little short
pants--yellowish-brown short pants--with dear little stripes of color
running across both ways, and here again Santa Claus had written, Hoodoo,
from Santa Claus, one fort net.

But there was something wrapped up in it. Oh, yes! There was a pair
of braces wrapped up in it, braces with a little steel sliding thing so that
you could slide your pants up to your neck if you wanted to.
The boy gave a dry sob of satisfaction. Then he took out his last
present. It's a book, he said, as he unwrapped it. I wonder if it's fairy
stories or adventures. Oh, I hope it's adventures! I'll read it all morning.
No, Hoodoo, it was not precisely adventures. It was a small family
Bible. Hoodoo had now seen all his presents, he arose and dressed. But he
still had the fun of playing with his toys. That is always the chief delight
of Christmas morning.

First he played with his tooth-brush. He got a whole lot of water
and brushed all his teeth with it. This was huge.
Then he played with his collars. He had no end of fun with them,
taking them all out one by one and swearing at them, and then putting them
back and swearing at the whole together.

The next toy was his pants. He had immense fun there, putting them
on and taking them off again, and then trying to guess which side was which
by merely looking at them.

After that he took his book and read some adventures called
Genesis till breakfast time.
Then he went downstairs and kissed his father and mother. His father
was smoking a cigar, and his mother had her new broach on. Hoodoo's face was
thoughtful, and a light seemed to have broken in upon his mind. Indeed, I
think it altogether likely that next Christmas he will hang on to his own
money and take chances on what the angels bring.

Hope you all get what you want for Christmas

____________

This was sent to me by my friend who may be starting a site called the Mariposa Barber Shop sometime. He is interested in all things, including investments in gold.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 16:07
IDT U>(J Disney's mailing list) ID#228128:
John Disney: Please put me on your mailing list. Thanks for the offer. I saved many of your posts but they got wiped out in a recent computer crash. My address is IDT@worldnet.att.net

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 16:01
A.Goose U>() ID#200163:
SDRer:

Check your e-mail.

Vronsky:

I know that the stock market is open short day. I think the bond and comex are open short day, but not sure.

All:
Now that it is out that the Japanese are selling bonds, when will the impact be felt? U.S. is probably buying Japanese bonds. This action should lead to drop in dollar soon. I believe the dollar is the critical item to watch.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 15:51
silver plate U>(Gold report) ID#288433:
JOHN DISNEY: I can't refuse your kind offer, please add me to your list
and a golden new year to you and all Kitcoites. keva@earthlink.net


A one month perusal of this site should qualify for college credit.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 15:35
vronsky U>(US MARKETS FRIDAY?) ID#427357:
ANYONE: Which US markets are open tomorrow?

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 15:14
vronsky U>(WHY, PRAY TELL?) ID#427357:

OLD GOLD ( Japanese stocks ) - REF your comment Vronsky: Don't get too bearish on Japanese stocks at these depressed levels. Best long-term risk/reward going except for gold.

OLD GOLD, as you well know, I and a host of GOLD-EAGLE contributors ( ORACLE et al ) have been harping and carping for over one year now about Japan's being between a Rock & A Hardspot for numerous well-documented reasons. We have given exhaustive supporting arguments, including numbers, tables, graphs for our views on the Nippon dilema.

Your infintely brief observation and implication that Japanese stocks might NOT deserve an extreme bearish opinion does NOT do justice to your analytical ability... and might even offend those Kitco amd GOLD-EAGLE thinkers who are always open to well-thought out arguments. But should you have the time, I challenge you to present your OP-ED position, which I will post at GOLD-EAGLE, AND OF COURSE YOU POST IT AT KITCO.

As an old-dog student of the markets, I am always willing to learn. Other than a rapidly plunging Nikkei value, I see little to warrant a comparison with GOLD's HISTORICALLY unprecedented RISK/REWARD RATIO. Am I missing something... pray tell?

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 14:56
Ted U>(Vronsky..................................and liked your Santa.....) ID#364147:
Merry Christmas duuuuude.....really awaaaaaay~~~~~~BYE!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 14:52
Ted U>(Deck update.................................................and herbal remedies) ID#364147:
Demo done and framing has started.....ROR: Merry X-Mas Bro but don't include me with them IMF fools!....EB: Even on X-Mas the Lakers suk!..Away to remedy the 'situation'.....Had fun on X-Mas Eve but had to put Eddie and Liz's four year old son's toys together ( they were too lazy ta wrap the presents also ( isn't that half the fun---tearing the damn wraping paper off? Guess I'm missin somethin in Cape Breton ( cynical grin thing ) Awaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~go gold..

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 14:49
Danl U>(John Disney & Fed Question) ID#215220:
Longtime lurker, great site. Happy Holidays to all.
Has Europe MORE than taken up the slack in Japan's T bond purchases? It appears so since rates have fallen or have rates fallen because of the deflation possibility?

John Disney, please send your report to globalaxs@usa.net
and thank you.


Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 14:42
Selby U>(Nikkei) ID#287207:
I see that left alone the nikkei has gone up 2.5%. I guess the speculators are celebrating the holiday too.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 14:40
Selby U>() ID#287207:
WDL: The Globe got it half right. Most of the regular Snowbirds to Florida and Arizona had their trips booked during the summer. They will go and pay the 72 cent fare. The spur of the moment folks ain't going nowhere except to the local establishments. I hope the C$ goes to 50 US cents and I can lock in some great interest rates before the speculators move elsewhere. I doubt I will get the chance though. The B of Canada seems all too willing to let the dollar drift down and exports rise and imports fall and surplus cash be spent in the country.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 14:35
OLD GOLD U>(Japanese stocks) ID#238295:
Vronsky: Don't get too bearish on Japanese stocks at these depressed levels. Best long-term risk/reward going except for gold.



December 25, 1997


Japanese Stocks Surge, Dollar Up


A.P. INDEXES: TOP STORIES | NEWS | SPORTS | BUSINESS | TECHNOLOGY | ENTERTAINMENT


Filed at 12:10 p.m. EST

By The Associated Press

TOKYO ( AP ) -- Stock prices in Tokyo advanced today on growing optimism a
taxpayer-funded bailout will nurse Japan's troubled financial industry back to health. The
dollar rose against the yen.

The benchmark 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average rose for a second straight trading day,
gaining 375.12 points, or 2.51 percent, to close at 15,300.10. On Wednesday, the average
advanced 125.58 points, or 0.85 percent.

``The stock market is finally reacting to a series of government measures to stabilize the
financial system,'' said Sachio Ishikawa, general manager of the stock division at Chuo
Securities Co.

Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's governing coalition agreed Wednesday to add further
to a bailout package which now earmarks a total of $231 billion in public funds for
bolstering the banking system. In addition, the Finance Ministry has decided to ease
requirements to shore up banks' capital reserves.

Confidence in the stability of the financial system had been eroded by a string of financial
institution failures over the past few weeks and the persistent problem of heavy debt loads
at financial companies. That had sent down the benchmark stock index to more than 2
1/2-year lows in recent trading.

The benchmark average surged more than 800 points in early afternoon trading after
Kyodo News reported Prime Minister Hashimoto suggested further reductions in corporate
taxes during a midday speech to business leaders. Stocks later retreated from intraday
highs as doubt spread over whether Hashimoto had made a specific tax cut pledge.

The broader Tokyo Stock Price Index of all issues listed on the first section of the Tokyo
Stock Exchange rose 27.64 points, or 2.44 percent, to close at 1,162.23. The index had
gained 4.59 points, or 0.41 percent, the day before.

An estimated 538 million shares changed hands on the first section, down from 544.28
million issues Wednesday. Rising stocks outnumbered decliners 951 to 241 and 102
shares closed unchanged.

Shares of banks were among the biggest advancers today, with banking issues listed on
the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange rising 2.2 percent as a group. Many blue
chip auto exporter stocks also rose.

Meanwhile, the dollar bought 130.25 yen in afternoon trading on the Tokyo foreign
exchange market today, up 0.33 yen from late Wednesday in Tokyo and also above its late
New York rate of 129.85 yen overnight.

Traders said activity remained thin as many overseas market players were off for
Christmas. The dollar's upswing came despite worry Japan's central bank might intervene
to stem the yen's fall while fewer traders are in the market, traders said.

The yield on the benchmark No. 182 10-year Japanese government bond closed
unchanged from Wednesday at 1.630 percent. Its price fell to 109.39 yen, down from
109.40 yen the previous day.









Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 14:32
SDRer__A U>(Tolerant1, that is VERY much a ) ID#280245:
TWO WAY street! Cheers! Prosit! and my favorite May you be an
hour in heaven before the devil knows your gone! Merry Christmas!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 14:27
WDL U>(@ Merry Christmas) ID#24095:
This story is for the Hatt and other Kitco Canadian friends

This story appeared in yesterday’s Boston Globe: Their dollar goes south, so they can’t
Loonie nears record low keeping Canadians home

by Colin Nickerson

MONTREAL- For Canadians, a winter trip to Florida is seen as less a vacation than a birthright. The state is jokingly called the 11th province because so many millions of Canadians flock to its beaches, golf courses, and theme parks as the deep freeze descends upon their northern realm.

But now it’s the Canadian dollar that’s going south, declining in value so precipitously in recent weeks that many Canadians can no longer afford fun in the American sun --- or the occasional shopping foray in New England.

A lot of Canadians are getting awfully worried about whether we can afford our beloved escapes,said Donald Slinger, president of the Canadian Snowbirds Association, in a phone interview from Bradenton, Florida.

Retired people who used to come down for four or five months are now feeling they can barely afford two months. he said. Vacationers who would come down for a week or two are saying ‘No Way,’ and staying home by the fire in Thunder Bay or Moose Jaw, watching that snow fall.

The Canadian dollar, pounded by uncertainty in the Asian markets, fell yesterday to 69.55 US cents, nearly its lowest level in history.

That means it takes roughly $1.43 Canadian to purchase a dollar’s worth of goods and services in the United States, a level shocking to Canadian sojourners.

Most Canadians think of an annual trip south as an inalienable right,said Theresa Macleod, a 39-year-old Montrealer, who as a girl visited Key West every winter with her parents, and has continued the tradition with her husband and three children.

Until this year.

Not, with the loonie packing all the punch of an Albanian lek or Korean won,she said, using the nickname for the Canadian dollar, which bears the image of a loon. Maybe we can afford a weekend ski trip to Vermont. Just what a Canadian needs, eh? Snow frolics.

In paraphrasing the rest of a lengthy article, it goes on to say that many Canadians who might have shopped across the border in the US may not do so because of the lack of buying power of the Canadian currency. Places like Newport, VT and other US cities and towns just accross the border will likely feel the pinch.

The article concludes by saying that the Canadian dollar may not have seen its bottom; that the plunge in the Canadian dollar is not so much reflective of troubles in Canada but problems in the world economy, especially Asia.

Further, shaken Asian investors are pulling money out of Canada and either reinvesting back home or in US currency. The Asian turmoil means less demand for minerals, timber,and other resource commodities from Canada.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 14:26
haulpak U>(@ J. Disney) ID#402183:
I would very much like to receive your mine evaluations. Thank you for your offer. Let me know if you ever need any news or rumors from the northern Nevada bush.

phinisey@sierra.net

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 14:04
tolerant1 U>(SDRer) ID#31868:
You never cease to amaze me. I would like to take this moment, which as I understand it is 90 seconds.

I shan't keep you that long. This though is for you, it is a thought of well being to you and your's.

There is much that I have learned from you, and I look forward to learning more as I grow and more fully understand your words and thoughts.

Namaste'

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 13:47
SDRer__A U>(Derivatives...a Christmas 'review' for New Year profits....) ID#287277:
Richard Sandor on his design of the ‘standard bond’ contract:
“We had to normalize all bonds. Everybody said they wanted yield equivalence [i.e., every package of bonds that could be delivered to fulfill the futures contract would pay the same interest rate]. We had a crazy factor system that made higher coupons and longer bonds the cheapest to deliver. Every time we gave the short something [i.e., applied a grading factor that made the deliverable bonds cheaper], we had to give the long something [apply a grading factor that made the deliverable bonds more expensive]. But we couldn’t make the contract so perfect it become a cash instrument--you had to leave room for arbitrage.”

Martin Mayer, “The Bankers, The Next Generation”
“Without these contracts--currency, interest-rate and long bond--none of the ‘derivatives’ activity in the banks would be possible. Banks absolutely must have the opportunity to LAY OFF their BETS with the BIG BOOKMAKERS IN CHICAGO [CAPS BY SDRER], and to ‘discover’ what the prices of their contracts ought to be by reference to a public market where transactions are put on the wire very soon after they occur.

“Over the counter derivatives and aspects of the mortgagee-backed market,” Gene Rothberg said, “are idiosyncratic, difficult, if not impossible, to price or value. It means that if they are held as collateral, there may be no buyers in the event of a forced sale, or the spreads between the buyers and sellers may be so wide that even hedges are ineffective. That means that the dealer who holds such instruments may have to sell short, say, plain vanilla government bonds in very large amounts to protect himself, thereby creating tremendous pressure on the bond market.”

In 1994, relatively small moves by the Fed to raise interest rates produced spectacular declines in the ten-year government bonds, because the holders of collateralized mortgage obligations premised on continuing declines in rates could protect themselves only by going to the public market and taking large short positions in bond futures. ( The ten-years did worse than the others because of the assumption that mortgages in a stable interest rate environment had a twelve-year duration; the math behind the models told the traders to find the closest match to the mortgage assumptions. )

If possible, banks would rather do their business behind closed doors, where they can exploit their information advantage. But when trouble comes, nobody picks up the telephone at the banks. When the British pound collapsed in 1992, and George Soros made his billion dollars with safe leveraged bets on its decline, the volume of currency trading at the Melamed’s IMM quintupled overnight. Most of that was banks trading with each other in public, in markets where the purchases and sales were guaranteed by the clearinghouse, because they were scared to do business in private.

Commenting on the clean bill of health the Fed gave the futures and options exchanges in 1985...Leo Melamed chastised the banking regulators for their failure ‘to distinguish between futures, which are standardized contracts traded on commodities exchanges that guarantee both sides of the trade, and forwards, which are customized off-exchange arrangements with no guarantor standing in between...most financial catastrophes involving trading for future delivery have occurred in the forward market, not in the futures market...The reason for the difference is largely one of accountability. In futures, all gains and losses are settled in cash at the end of every business day...Bank traders cannot hide losing positions or unrealized losses from management. Therefore, from the standpoint of control, futures are far superior to forwards. Bank regulators such as the Fed should appreciate this distinction.’ But they don’t.”

We have yet, IMHO, to see the real fireworks display...

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 13:47
jtaher U>(John Disney) ID#249409:
Hi Mr. Disney:
I value your analysis and input to this group.
Please add me to your email list--
jtaher@uniserve.com
Thanks, and all the best in the New Year!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 13:44
vronsky U>(ONLY THE TIP OF THE EXISTING ICEBERG) ID#426220:
ref: Donald__A ( Vronsky: Yesterday repost you may have missed )

Thank you. Yes, I saw it yesterday, HOWEVER, we will soon find out it is
ONLY THE TIP OF THE EXISTING ICEBERG that the Nippons are admitting to. Based upon the Japanese abilities to HIDE FINANCIAL EMABARRASSMENTS for years ( up to 10 years ) , I have little doubt much more US Treasury DUMPING will be CONFESSED TO in the not too distant future. Moreover, their dumping of Uncle Sam's IOUs has just begun.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 13:42
BillinOregon U>(Merry Christmas) ID#262242:
God rest ye merry gentlemen -- as we celebrate the coming of the Lord.

Merry Christmas to you all and God bless you in the new year.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 13:41
The Hatt U>(BOJ MUST MAKE A MOVE!!!!!!!!) ID#294232:
This may sound rather simplistic. From what I can see the BOJ has no
choice but to start dumping U.S. Treasuries to not only rescue the yen
from further erosion but to also stem the flow of capital leaving Asia.
If indeed this happens the flight to safety U.S. Treasuries could
indeed come into question. My forcast is that the fear will begin to play
on this money and gold once again will take its rightful place!
As I watch Canada move closer to a currency crisis I am surprised that
more Canadians have not paid attention to Asia. The facts are on the table that Gold would of been the saving grace to our neighbors and I am
sure that they will never be as short sited again as to trust their paper
money. So wake up Canadians and protect yourself against further
pressure on our currency and interest rates. BUY GOLD!

PS: Three rate hikes have left our dollar at an alltime low! What is next?

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 13:40
tolerant1 U>(And of course, how could I forget) ID#31868:
A most Merry Holiday, health and wealth to the Goldbug. Your wisdom is making me a wealthy fellow.

Namaste' to you and yours.

Gulp, a shot of Cuervo in your honor.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 13:36
Frustrated U>(bob-ID#25883 --- Bema) ID#298259:
I too would appreicate any facts you have on BGO. I have been following DiGeorgia's reco's since early 1996. I bought on his recommendation in Feb and Mar '96 in the low $3's and sold on his reco in Aug '96 in the mid $8. So far his reco's have been pretty accurate, but I am certainly receptive to additional information...I know we can't believe all we read. I always appreciate additional words of caution.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 13:29
Donald__A U>(Vronsky: Yesterday repost you may have missed) ID#26793:
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971224/business/stories/japan_2.html

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 13:27
oris U>(@John Disney ) ID#238422:
Thanks for your kind offer.
Will drink a triple shot of OLD Moscow
Vodka ( excellent Russian vodka, not available
for sale in the U.S. - gift from the Russian
business partner from Moscow ) for your health.
Will use Tony Packo's Original pickle to
complete this procedure...

My E-mail address is : bortep@shianet.org

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 13:27
Neil U>(John Disney - e'mail) ID#38970:
Please put me on your list so I can look up my favourites - Beatrix & Joel. Much obliged.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 13:23
RLM U>(Donald @ 07:36) ID#403335:
Great post!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 13:22
Donald__A U>(Japanese banking horror story; rumors of $800 billion dollar losses, not yen) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971225/japan_banks_news_ana_1.html

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 13:20
Bob M U>(gold@bitterroot.net) ID#26059:
Merry Christmas to all and a Happy and prosperous New Year..

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 13:16
Earl U>(earl@worldaccessnet.com) ID#227238:
John Disney: When time permits, please put me on your email list. A gracious offer, well received. Many thanks.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 13:12
KO U>(Disney) ID#270224:
Can you include zinc, lead and copper revenue in your analysis. What would be interesting to see is how the earnings per share and PE ratios change for each stock for different values for each metal component. e.g. how does EPS change or net gold production cost change as the silver, copper, zinc or lead price change? Can you set this up in Lotus, Quattro Pro or Excel or Microsoft Works spreadsheet format. If not e-mail it to me and I can do it for everyone on this site. Thanks in advance oehr@istar.ca.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 13:04
tolerant1 U>(vronsky) ID#31868:
The Christmas Greeting was truly an original. My very best and most heartfelt wishs for health and happiness to you and your's.

Namaste'

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 12:42
skelly U>(john disney) ID#286277:

Please include this old goldbug to your list . My email is ljmco@bigwave.ca
Happy Holidays To All

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 12:28
KO U>(John Disney Xmas Gift 8:32 Posting) ID#270224:
If you supplement your data to include silver revenues as a credit against gold cost of production or any other way you want to do it then you will have a really useful comparison. The reason I bought Prime instead of other stocks is due to its very high cheap silver output on top of its low cost gold output. Merry Xmas to you.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 12:27
Frustrated U>(E-mail copy - John Disney) ID#298259:
I would also be happy to receive a copy of your e-mail analysis and numbers. Thank You! and Happy Holidays to you and yours.

havy@internetmci.com


Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 12:18
tolerant1 U>(Colleen and all...) ID#31868:
as instructed, a most healthy shot of Cuervo, and a toast.

may everyone have a most wonderful day, give thanks for what you have, and think not of what you do not have.

May your God's bless you.

Gulp. Oh one more for good measure, gulp.

Peace, love and gold.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 12:15
EB U>(eblm@utech.net) ID#22956:
John Disney, put me on your list Please.....and Merry X-mas to you from the US..... ( your old stomping grounds ) ...ohmy!

The Hatt - You have been very busy of late talking about how scared these gold bears have been. And I think someone made a good reply ( can't remember who ) to the tune of they have made LOTS-O-CASH on the way down and don't be so sure that they are running scared. This drive down is NOT over so don't get your goldbug heart too excited........there are powerful forces at work here and you should wait like the other gold bulls have before you start talking about LARGE MONEY running scared.......and, of course, have a good holiday ;- ) ) .

Now.....I must go back to the ugly materialist part of ( my ) x-mas......the ripping of the gifts.....¡Öh M¥!

away...to the ripping and tearing...uh huh.

Éßhohohoing

ted-thanks bro...got the post

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 12:12
Bill G U>(Addendum) ID#207250:

John Disney,
I forgot to mention in my last post that the proprietor of the Goldsheet offers a free spreadsheet download in Excel or Lotus format that might be interesting to you -- saving data entry time for the spreadsheet you are developing. The spreadsheet is updated 4 times a year and the Gooldsheet expects a user deriving a benefit to send $10 for download or $25 for a year. Not a bad deal if in fact it can save hours of data entry.
http://goldsheet.simplenet.com/download.htm


Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 12:06
larryn__A U>(DISNEY) ID#32078:
John, unlike the Southern Baptists, I don't boycott you, so please send my a copy of your research. Do you include Kloof and Vaal Reefs?
larryn@ix.netcom.com

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 12:06
223 U>(Interesting thoughts from Tokyo) ID#26669:
http://www.cnnfn.com/news/knight_ridder/2200.1.html I particularly wonder about whether the Indians will sell at US$7.00

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 12:04
larryn__A U>(Christmas morning) ID#32078:
I tuned in this morning to see how many crazies were spending today on this page and then realized that I are one.

Perhaps the term is not crazy, but dedicated. May everyones's financial new year be like a morning rocket. Straight up.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 12:00
chas U>(john disney---valuation of gold mines) ID#339450:
merry christmas john. i wpuld be much obliged to get a copy. email is
devoto@w3link.com thanx again charlie devoto.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 11:45
vronsky U>(http://lowrisk.com/nikkei.htm) ID#427357:

NIKKEI IS KEY TO NEAR-TERM PROSPECTS OF ALL

ALL: During the last couple trading days in TOKYO we have witnessed massive support of the Nikkei by the BOJ using public funds to shore up the market in an attempt to avoid an avalanche of selling.

Considering the near absolute loss of confidence by the average Japanese investor in the financial industry, its banking system, and its government, methinks the BOJ is only postponing the inevitable: an eventual Nikkei Crash and possible devaluation of the Yen, a la recent the paper-maché currencies of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea and the Philippines.

From the Nikkei chart shown in the following website, it is readily apparent that about 14500 support level is the crucial flash-point that the BOJ is hell-bent-for-leather trying to avoid. The BOJ is pulling all stops to prevent stock prices penetrating this level, which will open up the sell flood gates... because the next support level will be Dante’s Fifth Ring Of Hell, financially speaking. Should this indeed occur, most Nippon financial institutions ( banks, insurance companies and finance firms ) will be legally insolvent. This would precipitate a far greater negative DOMINO EFFECT than what South Korea is now causing.

After many months of denial, numerous internationally acclaimed financial, monetary and economic experts are beginning to recognize that the BOJ HAS INDEED BEEN SELLING U.S. TREASURIES. Once the Nikkei 14500 is decisively penetrated, prudent T-Bond selling will necessarily convert into survival based dumping of Uncle Sam’s paper, causing world interest rates to soar, stock markets to plummet globally... and resulting in a draconian detour in the flight to safety from T-Bonds to GOLD. AS REFUGE, there is NO other investment vehicle alternative than the yellow metal.

Consequently, the price explosion in the noble metal will be electrifying for the simple reason there is so little of it vis-à-vis the level of the world’s savings and investments. And we may FORGET Central Bank stockpiles for two cardinal reasons. Firstly, the current market value of all Central Bank gold is just a small fraction of the world’s PAPER savings and investments. And much more importantly, the Central Banks of the major financial powers WOULD NOT DARE sell ANY OF ITS GOLD DEPOSITS during a global stock market meltdown, and ensuing international currency chaos. In essence Central Bank gold may be likened onto “selling one’s lifeboat on the TITANIC,” -- which would be insanely stupid!

Here is the Nikkei avalanche chart, which lacks being updated. So eyeball extend it down to about the 15000 level. “A picture is worth...”
http://lowrisk.com/nikkei.htm


Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 11:42
vronsky U>(NIKKEI IS KEY TO NEAR-TERM PROSPECTS OF ALL) ID#427357:

NIKKEI IS KEY TO NEAR-TERM PROSPECTS OF ALL

ALL: During the last couple trading days in TOKYO we have witnessed massive support of the Nikkei by the BOJ using public funds to shore up the market in an attempt to avoid an avalanche of selling.

Considering the near absolute loss of confidence by the average Japanese investor in the financial industry, its banking system, and its government, methinks the BOJ is only postponing the inevitable: an eventual Nikkei Crash and possible devaluation of the Yen, a la recent the paper-maché currencies of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea and the Philippines.

From the Nikkei chart shown in the following website, it is readily apparent that about 14500 support level is the crucial flash-point that the BOJ is hell-bent-for-leather trying to avoid. The BOJ is pulling all stops to prevent stock prices penetrating this level, which will open up the sell flood gates... because the next support level will be Dante’s Fifth Ring Of Hell, financially speaking. Should this indeed occur, most Nippon financial institutions ( banks, insurance companies and finance firms ) will be legally insolvent. This would precipitate a far greater negative DOMINO EFFECT than what South Korea is now causing.

After many months of denial, numerous internationally acclaimed financial, monetary and economic experts are beginning to recognize that the BOJ HAS INDEED BEEN SELLING U.S. TREASURIES. Once the Nikkei 14500 is decisively penetrated, prudent T-Bond selling will necessarily convert into survival based dumping of Uncle Sam’s paper, causing world interest rates to soar, stock markets to plummet globally... and resulting in a draconian detour in the flight to safety from T-Bonds to GOLD. AS REFUGE, there is NO other investment vehicle alternative than the yellow metal.

Consequently, the price explosion in the noble metal will be electrifying for the simple reason there is so little of it vis-à-vis the level of the world’s savings and investments. And we may FORGET Central Bank stockpiles for two cardinal reasons. Firstly, the current market value of all Central Bank gold is just a small fraction of the world’s PAPER savings and investments. And much more importantly, the Central Banks of the major financial powers WOULD NOT DARE sell ANY OF ITS GOLD DEPOSITS during a global stock market meltdown, and ensuing international currency chaos. In essence Central Bank gold may be likened onto “selling one’s lifeboat on the TITANIC,” -- which would be insanely stupid!

Here is the Nikkei avalanche chart, which lacks being updated. So eyeball extend it down to about the 15000 level. “A picture is worth...”
ht.//lowrisk.com/nikkei.htm


Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 11:39
Bill G U>((wpgjrlf@msn.com)) ID#207250:

John Disney,
I would very much appreciate receiving a copy of your e-mail as you generously offered at the above address. TIA, John, and Happy Holidays.
Bill

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 11:34
The Hatt U>(The Shorters are feeling the pressure of WHAT IF?) ID#294232:
Should gold continue its climb into next week, the possibilities of an
explosive rally or breakout if you may,increases. For those of us long
in gold we wish, however for those hedge funds who have printed money
on the weakness they themselves have created, danger lurks! We have
waited a long time for a bull market in gold and a pullback here would
not alter our thinking. However for the hedge funds a sudden breakout
would send them scrambling and it is my humble opinion that not only
would they cover their positions, but also go long at the same time!
Can you imagine a total reversal in the thinking and what that could
do to the price of gold?
The mania that has driven gold to its low has ever so slightly changed
course and it will not be long before we see further evidence that this
move is legitimate,THE START OF THE NEXT GREAT BULL RALLY IN GOLD!!!!!!

Merry Christmas To All!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 11:26
Carl U>(nljz80a@prodigy.com) ID#333131:
John Disney, I appreciate your email offer and would be pleased to receive a copy of your work at the above address.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 11:21
panda U>(Monthly silver chart.....) ID#30116:
Crystal ball -- Forget the chart, I want santa to put some gold and platinum coins in to my socks after he gets done reading my wish list! :- ) )

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 11:04
Crystal Ball U>(@ Panda) ID#287367:
One of the first things I learned about technical analysis was to compare a commodity price in a trading range to a man swimming back and forth in a river. When he finally gets up out of the river and clambers onto one of the shores, guess which way he's most likely to walk? And the longer he's been swimming, the more he wants to get away from that river!! Silver has been swimmming between $3.50 and $6.00 SINCE 1989!! ( similarly to its trading range between 1972 and 1976 ) The bottom GOLD is building here looks just like the one it built around $103.00 ! The bottom is in!!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 10:59
John Disney__A U>( toujours la betise) ID#24140:

Werner - I cant give you a clear picture of anything much. Merry

Christmas.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 10:56
John Disney__A U>(Einstein's General theory of Gold Mines) ID#24140:

To all good guys

Ill send anybody who is interested a copy by email of my recent posting on valuing gold mines. I will also set up a spread sheet on all the mines covered by the MJ. You know the methodology Im using.

Once I get set up, if some one requests info by email on a mine Ill send my valuation at different gold prices and the data Ive used.

I have no vested self interest - If you think I do - easy - dont

email me.


Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 10:55
werner U>(for John Disney) ID#23195:
could you give me a clear picture of current situation in the goldmarket could you do this via email

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 10:41
John Disney__A U>( Power - Its wonderful - even if for a moment) ID#24140:
For werner - Thank you for your support - Im touched - Now that I am in charge please send me your gold.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 10:31
Mr. Mick U>(MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL!!...NOW....) ID#345321:
Get back to your families. That's an order :- ) )

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 10:07
Gusto Oro U>(Christmas uptick...) ID#377235:
Santa Claus rally? Humbug. Humbug I tell you!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 10:02
panda U>(Something that we haven't in a while...) ID#30116:
What's this? A bounce in gold? For two weeks in a row? As an aside, on Christmas Day, why does the news media focus on tragedies that occur on this day? I guess it must be part of their 'balanced' presentation of the news...

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 10:00
223 U>(Mr. Disney) ID#26669:
Thank you. :- )

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 09:58
MoReGoLd U>(@From S. Kaplan - Russia's Central Bank had purchased a total of 100 tonnes of gold in 1997) ID#348286:
COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities, including precious metals, ended moderately higher in light trading on Wednesday. Gold gained $2.40, silver touched its highest level since November 17, 1988 before closing up 13.5 cents, platinum surged 11.40, and palladium rallied six dollars. The long bond ended with a small loss, while U.S. equities continued their recent pattern of opening sharply higher and then fading to end the day with a moderate decline.

Handy and Harman, a major U.S.-based fabricator with large holdings of physical gold and other precious metals, declared Wednesday morning that they had rejected a $30 per share takeover bid from WHX, stating that WHX is trying to gain access to our precious metals inventory, which is undervalued on our balance sheet.

Sergei Kishtimov announced Wednesday morning that Russia's Central Bank had purchased a total of 100 tonnes of gold in 1997 from domestic gold producing enterprises, including 25 tonnes from local commercial banks.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 09:53
223 U>(CMax @ All:) ID#26669:
How refreshing to see such a philosophy about gold so so pure and innocent.

I think gold gold does symbolize the beauty of ancient art,unknown gods and beautiful repousse. But in its schizophrenic way it also symbolizes the martial spirit of the ancients. From the iron age Celts, who, in their war with Rome owned nothing except their swords, horses and golden torcs, to the Aztecs who sacrificed the victims of their flowery wars with golden knives. ( I've wondered for years just what sort of wonderful golden art was melted by the Spanish Conquestadors. ) In those days Aztec gold symbolized the tears of the sun and silver the light of the moon. The sacrifices were supposedly to make the sun rise each day.

So the story goes that Jesus, the Nazarene, was given a gift of gold at his birth, I would suppose in a way to symbolize his reign of light. Then his sacrificial death was bought with silver. Earlier posters have mentioned the golden apples of the sun ( Appollo ) , the temptations of them strewn in the path of those who run life's race, et cetera.

Thank Heaven that the 1997 gold Bear is gone and will take its place in the pantheon of mythology. Hopefully not to revisit us any time soon!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 09:49
werner U>( Vronsky :thanks for greetings ) ID#23195:
.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 09:48
cherokee__A U>(@-----------miles-of-smiles------) ID#344308:
cmax@918

your mental musing cut to the bone....very well stated,
and the truth....

morals, and the respect for the truth!! a wonderful
christmas gift....

the true view of that which most of us knew, but could
not eschew....

for all to peruse.............

!; )

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 09:38
ROR U>(Merry XMAS) ID#35767:
TED, AG,RR,MC and all the good folk at IMF.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 09:34
panda U>(DonaldA @7:36) ID#30116:
Donald -- Well put!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 09:30
werner U>() ID#23195:
Very well said c-max that is why most of gold should belong to everybod
Do you know a better way then giving most of the gold to a elected person
Strange maiby.At the beginning God owned all of the and then he ditributed it ....

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 09:30
MoReGoLd U>(@Checking In) ID#348286:
Merry Christmas and a Golden New Year to all Kitco-ites.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 09:27
MoReGoLd U>(@Morals) ID#348286:
CMAX: Well said !

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 09:20
panda U>(Merry Christmas all....) ID#30116:
Santa is busy decorating the tree, but it appears that the teddy paratroopers are arriving............

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 09:18
Cmax U>(@Gold and moral values are inserpably intertwined.) ID#339320:



It was said 5000 years ago by the Hindus, that what we
all tend to profess most, is exactly that which we most
need to learn in this life. Without really realizing it, the
end result what we do here on KITCO is not talk and
debate about some metallic commodity called gold,
......no......we are really discussing our philosophy of life
itself........... of life’s values, of how the are percieved,
and of human nature. GOLD and VALUE ( of the
moral sense ) are inseperably intertwined, whether we
choose to realize it or not. The posession of gold is the
expression of and reflects our fortitude, our thoughts,
our talents, our tenacity, our sweat. THESE are the real
values of life, and gold simply stores the product our
creative talents for future use. In this light, there can be
no tangible item more NOBLE and FORTHRIGHT
than gold. What could possibly be more honorable
than this?

May all the participants of KITCO, in their great quest
to answer their questions regarding life itself, find what
they are after. Thank you Bart for providing this
medium, for such a virtuous activity.

A golden Christmas to all!
Cmax









Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 08:58
hipshot U>(@Donald) ID#401349:
Donald, your 7:36, very well done. No doubt the chap is a bright fellow, but it's essentially new age thinking and even when a bunch of bright folks get into the same room or milieu they can arrive at some pretty silly conclusions. I have seen it repeatedly, and, I guess, been part of it at times. It oftentimes has to do with the premises or givens or assumptions that one starts with because this is where the vector of the argument begins. At the end of the day, the CBs and government policy makers are in a reactionary/defensive mode and this is a weak position. We can all remember the rosy Asia Tigers scenario that was a given by even the most brilliant up until just a few weeks past. It just shows to go ya', right?

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 08:52
werner U>(gold) ID#23195:
The interim government will be let by Jhon Disney till a new president has been chosen.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 08:49
Donald__A U>(@Studio.R) ID#26793:
I would love to send you and your brother-in-law a copy of the 100 year Dow/Gold Ratio chart by US Mail. I am unable to e.mail it. Just give me a mailing address. donald@uconect.net

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 08:49
Ted U>(back ta the deck job.............................................) ID#364147:
The 'show' must go on~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 08:45
werner U>(gold) ID#23195:
Ok Jhon you are in charge

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 08:44
Ted U>(TORT) ID#364147:
Have a good frenzy!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 08:32
John Disney__A U>(A christmas gift for the good guys) ID#24140:
To all -

We have all heard the sad smug song about the poor

old deep South African mines with inefficient strike

prone high cost workers with one eye on the rock face

and the other on their bosses throat.

Now suppose we forget words and pay attention to

music - the music of numbers -

Lets look at some mines - first we can

calculate their REAL cost directly from their earnings

per share and the gold price that pertained over the

reporting period. We will also need the number of shares

and the annual output.

Then we can approximate the VALUE of a share at

different gold prices from the cost calculated

above and their RESERVES per SHARE of stock ( ignoring

the discount effect required to more precisely estimate

the reserve value ) .

Ill give you the data from the Mining Journal. If

you disagree with it, then please provide your own data

and the source.

If the North American mines are best then I want to buy them.

If the Australians are best, then I want to buy them.

I’m not limited in what I can buy - but I suspect some

of you may be.

First lets look at the methodology. Don’t take my word

for it - please DO IT YOURSELVES. A lot of Bullsh*t

can be taken out of the game if you are willing to utilise

the ability with numbers that I’m sure you have ( lawyers excepted ) .

If you don’t agree with the methodology - fine - say so - but please

offer another one in its place with examples and data.

Lets look at some mines people have shown interest

in recently. Ill list a few mines- I use the year

ending one quarter back for ABX since they lost money

in the most recent year due to a large one off cost in

the last quarter. If I used that quarter, I would

obtain a false low value for them.

Data follows in format- Mine, No of shares ( mill ) ,

reserves ( mill oz ) , output ( mill oz ) , EPS ( $ ) ,

prevailing average gold price for the year in question.

Costs/oz are calculated by gold price ( $/oz )

minus EPS times shares divided by output.

This means revenue per oz ( the gold price ) minus profit per oz

must equal the REAL cost - BY DEFINITION since

profit/oz = revenue/oz minus cost/oz

Okay, that’s one exercise but profit isn’t everything.

Some companies have more reserves than others.

So - we will take their profit per oz times their

total RESERVES PER SHARE.

in other words - one share of stock represents

how many oz of reserves. - then take that amount

times the profit to be made per oz and you have a

very simple first approximation of the value of a

share of that stock - .

- If anyone ( well ALMOST anyone ) is interested in a

copy of this by email- I’ve put it in word and Ill be

happy to send it to you. The formulas are easy for a

simple spread sheet set up. Offer is restricted to

EARTHLINGS and GOODGUYS and open until I erase it

by accident .

The data

ABX,373,76,3,0.60,362

Prime Resources,76,2,0.392,0.31,348

GCM,280,6.9,0.416,0.11,348

Normandy,1632,18,1342,0.04,348

beatrix,97,17,0.488,0.36,348

Western Deep,28,29* or 103**,1.08,1.44,348

* 29 = life of mine with no investment

**103 = proven, probable plus resource.

In ABX case 25 resource was included in total.

real costs follow

ABX = 362 - 0.6 times 373/3 = 287$/oz

Prime Resources = 348 - 0.31 times 76/.392 = 288$/oz

GCM = 348 - 0.11 times 280/0.416 = 273$/oz

Normandy = 348 - 0.04 times 1632/1.342 = 299$/oz

Beatrix = 348 - .36 times 97/.488 = 276$/oz

Western deep = 348 - 1.44 times 28/1.08 = 310$/oz

reported cash costs for information only

ABX 191

Prime Resources 173

GCM 221

Normandy 255

Beatrix 234

Western Deep 310

Now lets take all the reserves per share and multiply

by profit per oz at say 315

ABX 76/373 or 0.2oz/share times ( 315-287 ) =$5.6 vs. $18

Prime Resources 2/76 or 0.02 oz/share times ( 315-288 ) = $0.55 vs. $7

GCM 6.9/280 or 0.0245oz/share times ( 315- 273 ) =$1.02 vs. $1.1

Normandy 18/1632 or 0.01oz/share times ( 315 -299 ) = 0.16 vs. 1.0

Beatrice 17/97 or 0.17oz /share times ( 315-276 ) =$6.6 vs. $3.10

estern Deep* 29/28 or 1.03 oz per share times ( 315 -310 ) = 5.15 vs. $19

Western Deep** 103/28 = 3.6 oz per share times ( 315 -310 ) = 18 vs. $19

* low reserve

** high reserve - same basis as ABX

Now lets see what happens at 350$/oz

ABX 0.2 times ( 350-287 ) = $12.6 vs. $18 now

PR 0.02 times ( 350 -288 ) = $1.24 vs. $7 now

GCM 0.0245 times ( 350-273 ) = $1.88 vs. $1.1 now

Normandy 0.01 times ( 350-299 ) = $0.51 vs. $1.0 now

Beatrice 0.17 times ( 350 - 276 ) = $12.5 vs. $3.10 now

Western Deep * 1.03 times ( 350 -310 ) = $41.0 vs. $19 now

Western Deep** 3.6 times ( 350 -310 ) = $144.0 vs. $19 now

I think this must mean DEEP is EASY and Talk is CHEAP.

Prime seems to have a MAJOR reserve problem- Any information

available - I was about to buy this stock based on raves

from this group.

Many Australian stocks seem much too diluted with guess what -

PAPER SCRIPT - so that when you buy a share you get much

paper - little gold. This worries me as I hold delta, carpenter, and Ramsgate. Useful Comments will be appreciated.

Some of you like NA mines because you wish to support

the North American miner - I applaud your noble and

altruistic efforts. Pardon me if I don’t join in -

Maybe Franco-Nevada is okay - Ill take a look..

A note to those who will say - what about forward sales.?

These are automatically taken into account as credits to

the REAL cost of the company. I.e. if we based the

calculation of ABX supposed forward sales at 420$/oz -

we would simply calculate a higher REAL cost for

them then we did.


Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 08:27
werner U>(gold) ID#23195:
As you noticed it does not take long to bring down an empire .
The actual president wants it to continue because golden issues are at stake!
He sugests democratic elections and the choice of a new president.
He will not be a candidate but will give some golden advice later on.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 08:06
Tortfeasor U>(Ted) ID#36965:
Merry Christmas in spite of our mutual baw humbug thoughts. Let's see if we can't collate our excrement and make some serious money this year. It looks like Santa has been here. As soon as everyone is up we are out to the tree to go on a pleasure frenzy.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 08:05
STUDIO.R U>(@Donald , P.I. and El Dorado....fell as he found, no spot of ground....) ID#93232:
I will make my B.I.N. aware of your fine responses...perhaps he'll respond. If so, it would be helpful in many senses...he's a bright guy. He, as well as ourselves, must learn to distrust any and all publications, rather all media, that derives their economic existence from advertising dollars.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 07:49
Leland U>(My keyboard may not work on Korean URL's) ID#31876:
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh1226/m1226l06.html

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 07:47
STUDIO.R U>(@ALL....BEHOLD! FOLLOW THAT BRIGHT STAR......) ID#93232:
Well, evidently Uncle Eb. Scrooge tore the promissory note up...handed over the sleigh keys to Santa...and pitched in mightedly to load up the flying boat with goodies for all. Just goes to show ya'!

To quote one of the modern wisemen, Brother Al Green....Love and Happiness...to all. As I look to the east, I pray that we all may have our loved ones around us today...including, those that have gone unto the star before us.

My sincere gratitude to BART, and all Kitco participants for making my life much richer.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 07:36
Donald__A U>(@Studio R) ID#26793:
Dear Brother-in-law of Studio.R

The U.S. has made significant progress with its budget deficit this year. Regretfully, this is not entirely due to improved management techniques but rather the result of a manic stock market and resultant taxes on capital gains. It is doubtful that this will continue much longer. The end of this mania will produce enormous capital losses, an increase in the deficit, and a reversal in the deficit progress as government guarantees for loan defaults must be paid. Additional government programs already on the books will create a new drain on federal resources as the depression begins. In any event, the deficit is a minor problem when compared to the national debt. It is the national debt, and the interest which is compounding on it, that is the major threat to our country.

Trade imbalances are relevant when allowed to accumulate year after year. Think of it as a national credit card. The U.S. has not paid its Visa bill for nearly 30 years; we have been living off our plastic card. At some point we will be forced to reduce our standard of living or declare bankruptcy. Nations are no different than individuals in that respect. True; we could print money and pay the bill that way. The result of that action would still be a reduction in our standard of living as existing money cheapens and the cost of future imports increases due to the reduced value of the dollar. The damage is already done. All we can do at this point is prevent it from getting worse.

It is true that a majority of people today feel that gold has no monetary importance. That false perception is easily corrected by a glance at the Dow/Gold Ratio chart. See how the investing public has subliminally priced the value of industrial America in ounces of gold? Most investors are not even aware of it but the magic of the market is proving that gold does matter. Look at this chart of oil prices in ounces of gold over the past twenty-two years. Tell me now that gold has no monetary importance. Gold matters. Everything we buy is priced in gold. We only need to take the time to do the calculations to prove it to ourselves. The Swiss have not sold their gold but they may have lost it inadvertently if they loaned it to someone who can't pay it back. Central banks that sell their gold imperil their national sovereignty. If Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia had gold backed currencies they would not have become colonies of the IMF. They would have been able to survive as independent countries and only those businesses that had been irresponsible lenders and borrowers would have been punished. As they should have been.

Of course interest rates are headed higher and yes; deflation will be the result. Interest rates are what back fiat money. There is nothing else to do it. As confidence wanes in paper it requires higher interest rates to restore confidence enough to convince people to hold the fiat currency instead of gold. It has always been interest rates that compete with gold. That is the difference between gold cash money and credit paper money. As in 1929-1933 we will reach a point where there will be no confidence in paper and gold will be in demand. That is when the government collapses as it did in the election of 1932 and a new government comes to power with a plan to restore confidence.

In 1933 the new government revalued gold to a higher price. The fatal flaw was that it did not restore convertibility to the people at the new price as required by the Constitution. Convertibility was reserved for other foreign central banks only. Even that was removed in 1971. Inflation was the result. Deflation always follows inflation. You are correct. Governments do not know how to deal with deflation. The correct way to deal with it is to stand aside. If governments did not create inflation they would never be required to deal with deflation. That is the lesson that is yet to be learned.



Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 07:32
Leland U>(Goldbugs are probably doing just fine....) ID#31876:
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh1226/m1226106.html

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 07:27
Rumpled U>(@Iwannagohome) ID#336297:
Merry Christmas, one and all. Another dirty night shift nearly over!!!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 07:20
Ted U>(Merry Christmas) ID#364147:
you all~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 05:02
Goldbug23 U>(HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ALL AND) ID#432148:
THANKS BART FOR MAKING THIS GREAT SITE POSSIBLE!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 04:50
John Disney__A U>(Christmas is here ) ID#24140:

Merry Christmas to all Goodguys

To Studio R. I love your Brother in Law's No 7 - Greenspan will not be making statements like irrational exuberance anymore. Boy he got that right.

To Mr Vronsky - Merry Christmas and thanks for all your contribution.

Particularly on Delta - as I have a bunch. Because of Platinum holding.


Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 03:57
Spock U>(IMF, Asia, and Market Regulation) ID#210114:
Thanx to Donald-A for his Dec 24 7:20 post. It went to an article in Pathfinder magazine which recommended that there needed to be global finacial standards to stop this Asia stuff happening again.

What, Regulation of the International Markets According to many at this page, that is SOCIALISM!

God forbid!! ( Sarcasm )

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 03:06
Selby U>() ID#287207:
James: I think an important lesson from the C$ debate is found in measuring the discrepancy between the facts and the assertions posted here -and elsewhere --and keep it in mind when evaluating all posts. It is the case that Canada now has the soundest economic situation in North America The C$ is dropping against the US$ partially because the US$ is looked upon as being better than gold at the moment. Neither the soundness of the Canadian economy nor the preference of hot money for US$ over gold fits in too well with everyone's view of the way things should be.
There are lots of wise sayings about the power of perceptions over facts and many apply here.

Anyway its a great place to see the world on a screen.




Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 02:35
MJPL U>(The Great Wave) ID#153111:
Promethus, I saw your comments on the book The Great Wave at 0055 and I too was very impressed with it, untill he got up to the turn of the 20th century. He sounded like one of us, small government, hard money, low debt type of guy for hundreds of years but then he showed his true colors:RED! It's incredible how he illustrated time and time again the folly of big government and its effects on inflation and deflation and then around 1900 he sees price controls as the only answer that will save the world from inflation. He is the first liberal to say a good thing about Winston Churchill or Richard Nixons economic policy, that was when they imposed wage and price controls.

I wrote this guy a letter which for some reason he never answered back. He makes a big thing about the effects of the rise in sugar and candy makers on inflation and what I thought were many other trivial and petty items from America's century of inflation, I wrote to him that he was much too eurocentric in his views. I thought he did wrong to Asia's significant contribution in the 20th century with wage price controls by not giving the likes of Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Ho Chi Min, and lets not forget Fidel Castro heoric efforts in wage and price controls. I also pointed out that Hitler also was big on wage and price controls. Looking at the misery the above caused hundreds of millions it would seem that like making an omlet, wage and price controls can't be done without cracking a few eggs.

I can recommend the The Great Wave to any gold bug but only up to the turn of the current century, after that I have disagreements with the comrad. It's just that the last few chapters should have been printed with red ink.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 02:16
colleen U>(From colleen with love from South Africa) ID#33164:
To my very Dear and Familiar Friends at Kitco-May I wish you ALL a very happy Christmas - and Tolerant1- an extra shot of tequila today please? to toast us all!

To Bart- thank you for your wonderful site, which has enriched my life immeasurably.

To all the Lurkers- Lots of love and blessings to you all- we are indeed privileged to be able to connect with each other across the globe.

Have a HAPPY day!


Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 02:02
Eldorado U>(@the scene) ID#173274:
Studio R. -- Just popped in for a quick perusal and saw your posting. That's some Brother-in-Law you have there! Thought the line items needed some line item responses:

1 ) The budget deficit this year will be less than $50. billion. Perhaps, but certainly not if you throw in all the trust funds money and, of course, all this new bail out money that will need repaying. There are no free rides.

2 ) Next year's budget will have a surplus. Refer to item 1 above.

3 ) Trade imbalance is irrelevant. It's just oil imports. Write it off any way you want, but the bottom line is that it means a net export of our national wealth and posterity. I suppose that if that is irrelevant...

4 ) Gold has no monetary importance today or in the future. I'm sure this would bring about some laughter from those who were/are fortunate enough to be holding the physical metals in S.E. Asia and elsewheres!

5 ) The Swiss have already sold their gold. If this is so, then it was done illegally as they must hold a referendum to do so. Also, if they really have, then that is just that much less to be put on the market!

6 ) All central banks are sellers...or will be. BS, as some have been net buyers and as far as 'will be', GOOD! ALL physical metals should be in the peoples hands!

7 ) Greenspan will not be making statements like irrational exuberance
anymore. That's probably true. There is not much exuberance left in the paper markets that would require comments like that anymore.

8 ) The profit squeeze is real for U.S. industries...no more easy cuts...rising labor costs and increased competition, domestic and
foreign, are taking a heavy toll and it will get worse. A fairly correct assessment on this count, though I do not put much credence on the increased wage BS. Spotty at best. If they are scared of deflation, they damn well better make sure people are earning more and more to keep the factories humming. Also, these net-exporting countries better do some of the consumption themselves. Too much production vs. overall wages to buy it all without going into massive debt. That's what we see happening.

9 ) There is a strong possibility that rates are headed higher and deflation is a concern...in that no one knows how to deal with it. A non-sequiter! Makes it even harder to 'push' lending to deal with a deflation if you also raise rates. Not a good way to push an already wet noodle! You only raise rates for two reasons. One is to deal with inflation by curbing currency demand, or two, to 'compete' for bond/debt buyers. Which is it going to be?

10 ) The singular fear of the fed is the resurgence of inflation. Policy is developed around this priority. So which is it? 9 or 10? Deflation or inflation?

Well, that was fun. Now off for a nightcap.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 01:41
Jack U>(Happy Holidays and may 1998 be the turning point in your fortunes ) ID#252127:


Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 01:18
TZADEAK* U>(@ tolerant) ID#372344:
Life is a series of journeys thru this wondrous,amazing and marvelous
thing we call life, it is not simply a destination we strive to arrive at.
For when we arrive at that destination, we no longer wonder,and marvel with amazement, at this thing we call life. I for one could not live thru
this thing we call life knowing I was at my destination, and not readying
for a distant puzzling voyage, another wonderful journey thru this thing we call life.

Enjoy the RIDE.

and may the Gods bless us all.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 01:02
IDT U>(Happy Holidays to the Kitco Crew) ID#228128:
To all the participants and lurkers on this wonderful site the world over, I wish you all a safe and happy holiday season. I'm looking forward to the new year and sharing events with you as they unfold.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 00:55
Prometheus U>(@all) ID#189273:
The kids are opening presents and wanted to wish you all merry.

If anyone reads this, make note of this name: THE GREAT WAVE. It's a superb book that takes you through price history, mainly continental Europe, since the 1100's. Much of interest on gold and silver mining and coinage. The author is David Hackett Fischer, Oxford U. Press.

Am only in the late Renaissance, but already finding much worth commenting on here, later. Now for that pie!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 00:55
PrivateInvestor U>(Merry XMAS Studio R) ID#56215:

Thank you for the insight...Very helpful to understand were Fed officials are coming from...I'll bet that the SWiss have sold much more of their gold than others suspect. What more did he say about CB sales. Is the FED buying gold I hope.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 00:46
tolerant1 U>(All) ID#31868:
I am made better by being able to learn from all of you. For this I am thankful, truly I am.

Mine is a bad temper. This is not the time for that. Peace on Earth and goodwill to all.

May your Gods bless you this evening.

I wish the sweetest dreams for each and every one of you.

Namaste'

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 00:40
Neil U>(In Jo'Burg) ID#38970:
Merry Christmas to one and all from the Big Naartjie!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 00:34
STUDIO.R U>(@whoever is stupid enough to listen...afterall, it's Christmas eve....) ID#93232:
Just got through with a gut-wrenching argument with one of my brothers-in-law...he is a member of the Federal Reserve Board, Kansas City. He is in his third year of tenure. He is also Chairman and C.E.O. of one of Okla.'s largest manufacturers/employers ( private ) .

Salient points in his presentation: ( and I've had some wine )

1. the budget deficit this year will be less than $50. billion.

2. Next year's budget will have a surplus.

3. Trade imbalance is irrelevant. It's just oil imports.

4. Gold has no monetary importance today or in the future.

5. The Swiss have already sold their gold.

6. All central banks are sellers...or will be.

7. Greenspan will not be making statements like irrational exuberance anymore.

8.The profit squeeze is real for U.S. industries...no more easy cuts...rising labor costs and increased competition, domestic and foreign, are taking a heavy toll and it will get worse.

9.There is a strong possibility that rates are headed higher and deflation is a concern...in that no one knows how to deal with it.

10.The singular fear of the fed is the resurgence of inflation. Policy is developed around this priority.

That's all I remember....and I'm sure I've left some out. I attacked virtually all of these positions...some with success. I used the info I've acquired here....he said he'll buy gold next week. It is obvious that even these guys get most of their poop from the media. We're in trouble....the hood-winking is pervasive.

Thought you might want to know...Merry Christmas ALL! GO GOLDBUGS!

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 00:25
TZADEAK* U>(@ Looking Ahead..... possible scenerio?) ID#372344:
R.Rubin said tonite that the situation in Korea is of critical importance
to US interests which I take to mean they will print as much US$ as needed to stabilize the crisis there. NBR tonite opened it's broadcast by showing cartloads full of neatly wrapped US$ headed out for Korea.
In addition AG has also indicated the US would take the lead in the
rescue plan which I take to mean much more to this crisis thus much
more printing US$ to come. All in an urgent bid to arrest DEFLATION
before it spirals out of control. But this US$ printing IMHO is nothing less
than Corporate and Financial Welfare and will not in and of itself
necessarily spark inflation, since the much cheaper goods to com
from Asia would offset said impact,holding back wage price Inflation
indicator which is the biggest component. This factor would have a number of implications, including much lower earnings for US corps than now reflected in US equities, hence a continuing decline for US markets
especially Techs,as well as an ever growing US trade deficit which
IMHO will catch up to the US$, but more importantly, headlines for
import tariffs will dominate as The Giant Sucking Sound of Asia
of US jobs will unite Labour Dem and Isolationist Rep. and this will
be when the BIG problems will begin. Look for all G7 countries to
come to the rescue as Korea is a major investor in some countries like UK.

So I would looke for Gold to slowly inch back over 300 in a very orderly
fashion, with the real BIG moves coming as Euro gets underway,
smaller countriesGang Up on the US tying it up like Gulliver
US troops attacks in attempts to force them out of M-E, maybe Korea
even Japan, Bosnia etc.. and domestic pressure for stable interest
rates ( INFLATION ) after all they bailed out Asians, cries for tariffs
against dirt cheap Asian imports that threaten US jobs etc....

The outlook is Golden indeed for those who are patient.

TO ALL Again,Happy Holidays and a very prosperous New Year !

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 00:23
pagoda U>(O Canada) ID#22650:
I have a friend I have been visiting in Toronto the past year. As an astute observer of macro-finance and economics, he has also observed that Canada is trying to remedy their failures at socialism. The comment in an earlier post about Alberta working out its deficits and actually posting a surplus is accurate. I have read comments about the descending C$. The way I see it, the Canadians know that they must compete with and do business with the Asians as Canada is an exported oriented company. Accordingly, a strong dollar does little good and is allowed to float according to the circumstances. The C$ is backed by a lot of resources, some of which are likely to increase greatly in the future, like gold, silver and oil. Then who will be sitting in the Catbirds's seat with a solid currency backed by hard assets and population working at paying down their debt? Yes they have problems, but at least they are going about preparing a foundation for the future and the people's attitude about eliminating debt is one of their biggest assets. Their relative social stability compared to the US is something to appreciate also.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 00:14
pagoda U>(to tolerant1) ID#22650:
Very good essay re your subject Camdessus by Jude Wanniski on www.polyconomics.com.

Date: Thu Dec 25 1997 00:10
Lurker 777 U>(Kitco Friends) ID#317247:
Please accept my heart felt wishes that everyone have a Merry Christmas and a very profitable New Year.

Bart thank you for this site because it has challenged my thinking and changed my life.

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