KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:51
jimsy U>(Gold price over the next month) ID#252352:
So it would appear that gold could head down to $280-290 if the DJ doesn't tank back to 7400 or so and this would be due to the overriding week currencies in the east. If the IMF or someone lends aid to get the currencies sorted out and if the DJ tanks, does gold have a chance to make it to $350 by March?

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:51
LGB2__A U>(Saul, DOW crash tomorrow) ID#316409:
Yes Saul, obviously the technicals on the DOW are incredibly weak. That's why it's gained 11% in value in the past few weeks, with several large gains this past week. Also, when you consider that Hong Kong and Japan's markets are up approximately 2.5% tonight, that adds further fuel to the fire of a definite market crash tomorrow.

Re your question on Puetz, like Where is he...we don't see much of Puetz when the DOW is crashing UP several days in a row. He's too busy advising his clients re their S & P PUT options, that are now going to expire worthless with a 100% loss. Course if we get that 3000 point DOW drop tomorrow, maybe he and they can make some dough......

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:50
themissinglink__A U>(IDT ) ID#373403:
What kind of scientist? Check out my website.

http://www.familyjeweler.com/fortweb.htm

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:50
tolerant1 U>(John Disney - RE-Ratio) ID#31868:
John the following is from CPM Group. It is an excerpt. I thought I would post this chunk of info for all to read and get their thoughts.

The Historical Relationship Between Gold and Silver

Obviously, gold and silver are inextricably intertwined with each other. The metals clearly are related, in terms of physical properties, uses, and price movements.

The relationship is not as simple as many would believe, however. And, in terms of prices, there are no valid reasons to believe that the prices will ever do anything more than move tangentially together.

You will hear that the gold/silver price ratio ought to be 16 to 1, or 32 to 1, or some other supposedly magical number. In fact, there are no statistical bases for such conclusions. The amazing thing is that investors and dealers still trade based on the theory that the gold/silver ratio ought to be some specific number.

As my first slide shows, the gold/silver ratio has traded between 16:1 and 100:1 over the past two decades. There has been no consistent pattern. The ratio fell sharply in 1979, for reasons I will touch on shortly. The ratio then rose throughout much of the 1980s, reflecting the greater weakness in the silver market and the stronger interest in gold from jewelers and investors during this time. Since the beginning of 1993, the ratio has fallen some. After reaching a peak of 100:1 ( this slide shows monthly averages, which did not quite achieve this level, but on a daily basis the ratio did in fact hit this peak ) , the ratio has fallen as low as 70:1. This reflects the improved market conditions in silver, and the fact that the silver market has been tighter than has the physical gold market.

Historically, there were some times when the ratio was important. In the early 18th century, Sir Isaac Newton determined that the ratio of the price of gold to that of silver should be 16 to 1. Except for periodic suspensions of the metallic monetary systems, the gold/silver ratio stood at this level until the early 20th century.

The silver market was devastated in the Great Depression of the 1930s, leading to a point where this ratio expanded to 100:1.

For much of the time from 1945 until 1968, gold prices were fixed in dollar terms, while the U.S. Treasury worked to maintain silver prices below the $1.29 level at which it made sense to refine your silver coins for their metal content.

Since 1972, when gold and silver both were free of such government interference, prices have traded between 16:1 and 100:1, as I said earlier.

You will notice the dip down to 16:1 in 1979. This was the time when Nelson Bunker Hunt and his brother were active in silver. Mr. Hunt felt strongly that Sir Isaac Newton had been on to something real when he set the ratio in British coinage at 16:1. Therefore, Mr. Hunt traded gold and silver on the supposition or theory that the price ratio had to move toward this natural level. Since he had sufficient funds and influence in the market, his prediction became a self-fulfilling promise. However, he bankrupted himself in the process. Thus, the move to 16:1 was short-lived.

Following this incident, the silver market was in great disarray, and took the better part of the 1980s to re-balance itself. During this time, the ratio eroded sharply.

If you asked someone from CPM Group where we thought the gold/silver ratio would be in the future, we would develop a projection of gold prices, based on gold's supply/demand conditions and the underlying economy, then we would develop a silver price projection, based on silver's fundamentals. We would divide the gold forecast by the silver forecast, and give you our projection of the gold/silver ratio.

What is our forecast? We expect the ratio to drop to between 50 and 60, from the 70 - to - 90 range that has held for the past five years.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:46
IDT U>(IDTon Government Debt) ID#228128:
Bill B and JTF: I think that the Princeton comments are based on the administration's projections which don't take into account the so called off budget items. I'm well aware of the U.S. government's funky accounting, I'm a worker in it. They spent my pension fund and my 401k and never counted that as part of the debt. Makes ya kind of suspect that they may not make good on it. If I loaned a guy 10 bucks and he said what ten bucks?. Well, you get my drift. Don't think too poorly of me working for the government and all. I'm a scientist and there are no jobs in my field outside of government. Otherwise I wouldn't have anything to do with them.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:46
LGB2__A U>(@ Mooney,re your 21:17 ) ID#316409:
Yes Mooney, the trend for my company stock is that when the DOW drops, it drops at a leveraged pace, and the inverse is true when it rises. Our stock dropped 13% the day of Off white Monday, and climbs about 50% faster than the DOW ( on average per my moving 12 month averaging chart ) when it rises.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:43
CC U>(DISNEY: Gold/Silver ratio) ID#333303:
In any event, I would NOT like to see the gold/silver ratio fall below say 57.5 The lower it falls the better it his. At bull market peak, this ratio has to be low..well below 35-40. The tremd is good, I hope it will last 2-4 more years. IMO, it will accelerate when gold and silver start thier big rally..soon.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:43
saul U>(Will the crash start tomorrow?) ID#93114:

It certainly looks like the Dow is setting up for a real dive. Looking

at the dow 30s tonight I couldn't help seeing all of them have rallied

but are very technically weak. Should be very interesting day Friday.

Maybe a up and down key reversal?

Anyone hear from Nick Puetz? Would be interesting to hear his

interpretation!

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:41
themissinglink__A U>(Deflation info please) ID#373403:
If deflation happens and you are holding gold, why would you want to sell for currency? Especially if it can devalue 10% in 15 minutes.
Steve

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:41
LGB2__A U>(SHULTZ, learn a little about coins) ID#316409:
Shultz, re your 23:12. PLease, please, let's stay somewhat factual here. St. Gaudens are NOT going for $900 in M/S 60 when you can find them. I bought several yesterday myself ( scroll back to yesterday to verify if you like ) and they were quite close to HALF that price, and I obtained several quotes from other dealers who had them in stock at similar prices, though some dealers had indeed run through their inventory. You want M/S 60 Saints at $900 pal, I'll be happy to provide you an endless supply at $800, whilst making myself a huge profit in the bargain.

Now I'm not critisizing your basic premise that Saints are going up in reverse of Gold, and becoming harder to get, in fact I said that yesterday, but let's stay factual OK? As to junk Silver, hope you're not paying much over spot for it.


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:38
themissinglink__A U>(confiscation) ID#373403:
Article V of the United States Bill of Rights: ...nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use without just compensation.

Just thought you would like to see it. Hopefully they don't do the confiscation before the profits arrive: )

Steve

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:36
John Disney__A U>() ID#24140:
to All

A few weeks ago, I pointed out that the gold/silver

ratio had broken it's more recent supports and that there

was no likely support before the 57.75 ratio than it hit

around 1988.

Well, we are effectively there now. Fortunately, the

fall in the ratio was not so much due to gold falling

as it was to silver rising. It could have been worse.

In any event, I would NOT like to see the gold/silver

ratio fall below say 57.5. Then there would be no

telling where it may go.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:35
LGB2__A U>(@ MissingLink, Y2K) ID#316409:
Y2K is the most overhyped disastor for the financial markets. There are companies marketing software and support right now ( saw two in WSJ today ) that claim they have already resolved any and all Y2K problems of 95% of the current software/hardware combinations out there, and can fix same within a few days as consultants.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:32
Speed U>(Various) ID#286199:
Tolerant1: I agree with you, that the use of derivatives, options and other forms of leverage have greatly increased the volatility of the market place. However, why would panicked investors flee to metals? Why not to cash? Or to Real Estate? If high unemployment occurs, then ther will be no money for metals, at least not among the millions of just plain folks. I want to believe that hard currency will make a comeback else I wouldn't lurk here, but no scenario of gloom has convinced me that money will flee to gold. A credit collapse will leave most of us broke. and unemployed. The big players with money will buy businesses, mines, factories and other income producing properties. They will buy labor at reduced wages, they will even buy governments and power but why will they buy gold? During a general economic depression, a good cow and a half acre of garden will be worth more than a few shiny coins. Future responses will be in about 7.5 hours. Cheers

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:27
tolerant1 U>(steady) ID#31868:
The purchase you speak of caught my eye. In addition I have been following the stock through various outlets of information. One of my pet stocks for a long time now has been Tan Range Exploration. I have plenty of physical and have been looking to add to the mining porfolio I am building.

I for one can attest to the positive aspect of listening to the Goldbug. I first found him via Gold-Eagle and am a subscriber. I have really dug in with the silver stocks and own ASM, SSO, PAA, FSR as I have for a very long time been thinking that silver will one day explode and I intend on trading the white metal in for the gold to a very large extent.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:26
themissinglink__A U>(Year 2000 bug) ID#373403:
I don't get it. This problem has been talked about for several years now. Data must have to be resubmitted every few years due to new programs etc. Why are all the new computers not reconfigured over the past few years? I feel that there must be a data and hardware turnover every five years or so. What is the big problem?

Also, why can't the new programs be written to default '00 years to mean 2000 instead of 1900 unless otherwise specified? How much data would be mistakenly lost from the 1900's? Probably not much. Anything that archaic is probably in university computers anyways and only for very specialized data set anyways.

This really blows my mind that a three line patch program is expected to cause such chaos. That we have computers of todays sophistication is technology levels of magnitude higher than this programming oversight.
Steve

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:25
a.j. U>(testing) ID#256201:
howdy!

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:24
JTF U>(@Home budget surplus in the USA? Pre SE Asia crisis perhaps, but not any more!) ID#57232:
IDT: Saw your 20:42 post on Princeton Economics home page.

I wonder when the article on the US budget surplus in 1998 was written.

It would seem to me that the author had not seen the updated National debt web page that Bill Buckler had posted! Perhaps we are more on the ball than Princeton Economics!

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:19
Bill Buckler U>(US Debt) ID#257234:
IDT ( 20:42 ) I have seen lots of reports from many different sources that say the U.S. is going to run a budget surplus this fiscal year. I have also seen Mr Clinton claiming that the deficit for fiscal '97 was $23 Billion. Over at the Treasury, the official figures are that the funded debt rose by $188 Billion in fiscal '97. Go figure.

BTW, did you know that in the 1970's, the U.S. kept an official debt ceiling of $400 Billion throughout the decade. They had a temporary ceiling which remained in force until September 1982, when the debt hit $1.3 Trillion. Then they eliminated the temporary ceiling for a permanent ceiling. The rest, as they say, is history.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:17
tolerant1 U>(Let's face it.) ID#31868:
All the talk in the world will not change the fact that the rest of the world is getting their collective financial heads handed to them.

The US economy is not that strong. It is being held up by foreigners purchasing our debt, plain and simple. The market is an inflated joke. The house that Clinton, Rubin and Greenspan built is dead meat.

Smoke and mirrors can only work for so long.

I wonder how much the build up in the Middle East is costing our already, disturbingly broke Government.



Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:15
steady U>(Canyon Resources) ID#285309:
Tolerant1- I own a significant position in the company and as such I follow its progress closely. Talk to IR dept often. I believe it has excellent chances. Production is now gearing up to 90,000oz a year ( had some crusher problems for awhile at Briggs ) . The company is in process of acquiring 100% ownership of McDonald property ( own 27% ) with 100 ( min ) /150mill ( max ) payment to Phelps. Mc Donald has over 8 mil oz of gold, 5.5mill recoverable. The Briggs has a excellent chance of adding to their resource there. Once AU goes to about $380-$400 and provided the license is granted by the State of Monatana for McDonald, this stock will be an order of magnitude higher.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:12
Schultz U>(Observations) ID#288349:
The coin market for old US coins is red hot right now. I made some purchases yesterday at a store that is moving about 100 ozs a day in bullion coins ( mostly Maple Leafs ) and has sold out of all St. Gaudens and Indians. He only had a few beat-up $10 and $20 Libs. In 2-3 weeks the St. Gaudens have increased in value from from about $450 for an MS 60 to as high as $900 when you can find them.

I haven't done a broad survey of the larger dealers but I don't think this is too far off from what is happening around the country.

In light of the over-the-top inflationary policies now being employed by the major economies and the apparent decision to prop up the US and Japanese markets at any cost, the ultimate result is going to be far worse than what I had considered it might be.

Consider buying pre 65 90% junk silver in large quantities. There are several benefits to this strategy.

A ) Gold is an excellent store of wealth but is simply not practical if you want to purchase a few bags of groceries whereas a roll

of silver quarters or dimes would allow you to conduct this sort of transaction easily.

B ) There is still significant downside risk of eroding gold value in relation to currencies. The downside risk in silver is minimal.

C ) In light of the fanatical attacks on gold I believe it is naive to think that demand alone can change the rules of the game. The parties that are suppressing gold prices still make the rules.

Government confiscation is a very real possibility.

It is highly unlikely that silver would be confiscated especially when it is held in the form of lawful US currency that has been in circulation for over 30 years. Even if PMs were made illegal to trade, the coin of the realm will be the lowly silver dollar not a 1 ounce gold coin. I can easily envision authorities trying to trace illegal transactions conducted in gold coins but silver is another matter entirely. Who is going to waste their time tracking down someone who had a roll of Mercury dimes?

D ) I own a large parcel of land high in the mountains that is well stocked with food and fuel I've lived in the wilderness for a year and half. It gets lonely even with a family. Having other people to share ideas with is almost as important as food and water. No matter how bad things get there will always be interaction with others. Man is a tribal animal that does not do well alone. Therefore, we must consider some way of interacting with the system as it will exist which will not create danger for ourselves or our friends and family.

E ) The recent intervention in the marketplace has caused me re-evaluate my worst case scenario. Food, shelter, security and fuel are going to be worth a lot.

For these reasons I've shifted a large portion of my bullion holding to junk silver US coins. Even if gold is driven into the basement there has to be pressure relief in the system to allow people to invest in somthing that will not lose it's value. I think that vehicle is silver.


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:10
tolerant1 U>(Speed) ID#31868:
The CB'S yap and rumor and spin but they know the true value of gold. I don't think this game they are playing will last much longer. You mistake greatly the trillions in paper and how scared it can become overnight.

They could not supply a terrified world of investors. Impossible. There is not enough above ground to make up for the trillions in worthless paper that would run to the metals. Gold, silver and platinum would explode.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:08
JTF U>(@Home - Flight from safety, or flight to safety?) ID#57232:
D.A.: Your 21:43 is excellent reading. Eventually there will be a flight from safety, and dollars or their equivalent will be sold -- after the financial markets stabilize.

There are other parts of the world where the flight to safety has yet to come, the largest being South America. If this part of the world heads south soon, the flight from the dollar could be postponed.


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:06
Bill Buckler U>(Asians Dumping Gold) ID#257234:
Oh you ( L ) ittle ( G ) old ( B ) ug you!

LGB ( 18:58 ) So the Asian investors are dumping Gold to satisfy debt obligations

OF COURSE THEY ARE! First of all, these Asian investors are neither

banks nor governments. They cannot lend themselves a new batch

of money to service the paper they have already lent themselves, nor

can they hold a refunding auction. And the IMF wouldn't touch them,

nor, for that matter, would the World Bank.

They can't borrow the paper needed to service their debts. They

can't raise the capital by selling their shares. Either they've

already done so or at present prices, they couldn't raise enough

anyway. What is there left. Bankruptcy is not the painless

procedure in South-East Asia that it is in the U.S.. Not for

your average joe. They could sell themselves into what would

amount to indentured servitude. Or they could sell an asset

that is no one elses liability. That's what they chose to do.

Gold will protect you from market and currency turmoil, UNLESS

you are in debt. If you are in debt when the financial earth moves,

then NOTHING will protect you. The mistake of the Asians was

not to buy Gold, it was to buy paper on margin or real estate

using stock portfolios as collateral.

Of course, us sophisticated investors here in the West

would never make that kind of silly mistake, would we?

What we are seeing in Asia is the poor individual getting it

square in the neck. They don't have a lobby group. They don't

have any relations in government. They don't owe enough to be

too big to fail. They are the ones who are storming the banks

in Hong Kong and now in South Korea.

In many countries across Asia, someone who is NOT in debt and who

holds Gold has done better than he or she could have done holding

any other form of local asset. Don't forget, the South Korean currency

fell by more than 10% against the U.S. Dollar yesterday - IN FIFTEEN MINUTES!


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 23:06
steady U>(test) ID#285309:
test

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 22:59
woody U>(////) ID#24563:
US Treasuries halt winning streak.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971120/u_s_treasuries_halt_1.html

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 22:49
Speed U>(Notes on a frayed cuff) ID#286199:
The Central Banks have enormous gold holdings, frequently estimated in the tens of thousands of tons. They carry this gold at a big discount to the market price so they can sell at spot prices and still make big profits. Gold does not produce income but does incur storage costs. CBs have been selling relatively small amounts of gold ( hundreds of tons ) in the last couple of years. They have been lending gold at monthly rates of 2% or so which is pretty good if you think about it. A non-income producing asset has been turned into yet another revenue stream. Financial stocks have soared. Gold has dropped 25% in 18 months. Assume for the sake of argument that the CBs are willing to supply 50% of annual demand and that they have 34,000 tons of gold. They can keep pace with current demand for a couple of decades! Gold can go down to any price deemed efficient by the captains of finance. Gold's best chance is that a falling out will happen between these moguls and the CB cartel will be broken up. This may happen, but not soon. Gold is going to 280-290 before year end. imho of course.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 22:37
tolerant1 U>(A1) ID#31868:
Thanks. I have been looking at it for a while now. I have really been concentrating on my silver stocks and feel very comfortable in that area.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 22:36
Poorboys U>(Some@Night@Thoughts) ID#224149:
Japan-No doubt is going through a healing process which forces the collective,as an organic whole,to experience violent phases of self-healing,in order to become well again. America should adopt religion as a saver for money spent on police, as any enforcement is only temporarily just.Canada the country that should lead the world is obsessed with the ideology of peace.Happy Trails. P.S.Mike Sheller please visit again.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 22:35
tolerant1 U>(Aussie) ID#31868:
If you missed it there is a solid post from D.A. a little below this post. It may provide some of what you seek to find.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 22:34
Goldbug23 U>(AU) ID#432148:
AUSSIE: If as reported here 19 CBs added to their gold reserves compared to 16 reducing reserves last year,the majority must think they need some gold to back up their currency, even tho many economists et al claim that is no longer necessary. I suspect that even many who control the 16 CBs that reduced their gold amounts believe it is in the best interests of their country to have some AU backing their paper. When we have the next financial panic ( unless history has been repealed ) we will see if gold does not become a major factor in reassuring the people that the paper money has some value because it is backed by gold. You may have read the Swiss GOVT IS thinking of unloading some of their gold. Did you read that the people have to vote on this move and a good majority in a poll said NO SOAP! If the US $ is to remain the world's reserve currency dare the US unload any of it store of gold? Hardly/

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 22:29
Al U>(tolerant1) ID#257114:
I think Canyon Resources is one of the best juniors you will find out there. It's an absolute bargain right now. In fact I added more last week at 1 5/16. Briggs will produce about 90K ounces next year with much more exploration potential in the area. They have 100% ownership of the McDonald deposit and have excellent prospects in other countries. Excellent management as well.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 22:20
Aussie U>(tons of gold) ID#25196:
I like many others are hurting badly re gold stocks at the moment.But can anyone tell me why gold will improve in price when there are so many tons of it sitting in central bank vaults.Its a classic case of supply and demand when supply outstrips demand causing this weakness.I would appreciate yr comments on this.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 22:15
vronsky U>(IS IT CONCEIVABLE CENTRAL BANKS WILL SOMEDAY OUTLAW CASH?) ID#427357:
With the staggering woes that have beset the Asian Tigers as
of late we may well need to expect a whole series of bailouts
for the Pacific economies akin to the 1980s bailout wave. And
the Fed sits poised to monetize new loans as needed. So there
is an endless stream of new debt that the Fed will be
monetizing into the foreseeable future on a grand scale.

All the while the central banks are shedding large portions of gold reserves in their on-going war on gold they are simultaneously weakening their own positions in terms of fungible, highly liquid assets.

A collapse in the stock markets and a run on bank deposits due to a global financial crisis could deal them a severe blow.

An excellent DETAILED review of Central Bank folly may be seen at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/voss112097.html


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 22:15
Roebear U>(TheOTherKitcoChannel, Mooney,I'llmakeyouproud!) ID#403267:
ALL: In case my last post was too inocuous, I'll make it easy for everyone to see the latest news on BCMD, you know, the one you are gonna kick yourself for missing ( IMHO ) :

http:///comments/investment/1997q4/971120.220914.roebearee.htm


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 22:09
Leland U>(Coin Prices) ID#31876:
BADGER -- Do you agree that numismatics prices are telling us some
good news is coming soon for gold? ( I think this is what I'm hearing. )




Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 22:06
tolerant1 U>(223 - D.A.) ID#31868:
Can the US Govt. sell its gold if they want or are there laws which say they cannot?

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 22:06
Roebear U>(@AStockChannelNearYou) ID#403267:
Mooney and all, check out the Kitco stock and coin discussion group to see that you know who did you know what:- ) )

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 22:04
223 U>(D.A. Thanks, its good to see the teachers are returning!) ID#263259:
I'm glad to see people starting to estimate deficit tonnage amounts correlated to price. I noticed in Kaplan's webpage he's mentioned also that even at the present prices more CB's are buying than selling. The ratio is 19 to 16 if memory serves correctly.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 21:54
badger U>(@ Leland and coin prices) ID#261118:
I just bought MS63 slabed St's ( no motto ) for 518.00 shipping inc. THIS IS HIGH!!! Blue sheet is about 490 or so but try to find one! Demand for coins is up. I've had a retail estb. for over 20 years and have seen ONE REALLY BIG gold surge, I've not seen physical garner this much attention for some time; it's really simple, when gold is precieved really cheap, folks buy!

badger

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 21:50
Mooney* U>(Bernatz - Say It ain't so!) ID#348169:
Just had to check one last time before noddin' and saw this post, Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 21:17
JRL ( Those were the days, my friend... ) ID#253414:
Does this new password system mean that we will no longer enjoy
occasional comments from alter-egos such as Bernatz ( Venadorn ( sp? ) , Sigmund Freud and the KGB Kommissionar? If so, too bad.
Please Bernatz - Say it ain't so. That WAS really you, wasn't it? I'll be watching for your next post ( as many, many uthzars shell bee alzo ) . Bon Chance mon ami, et bon nuit!

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 21:43
D.A. U>(what.next) ID#7568:
All:

A few days back I opined that the end of currency contagion was near. Now that the Korean Won has taken its big hit it looks like things will settle down a bit. We should start to see the various rescue packages coming on stream and the trade figures for Southeast Asia should start to improve dramatically in the very near future. The first effect of this relative stability should be a flight from safety. Since safety has been defined as dollar denominated debt, we should see an unwinding of some of the recent bond gains. In addition, since this money was coming from offshore, it is also likely that its repatriation will hurt the greenback somewhat. The big beneficiaries of this on a relative basis should be the European currencies. Look for the pound and the DM to strengthen at the expense of the buck. This decline in the dollar should also add a little help to the precious metals.

One of the interesting features in todays trade was the negative correlation between our bonds and the Japanese Yen. One could almost come to the conclusion that the BOJ was dumping a little of our paper in order to prop up the Yen. The devaluations in Taiwan and Korea are going to hurt Japan the most in the trade competition, because those two countries are the closest competitors to Japan in terms of export product mix.

The article in the WSJ today on gold was fascinating. It is exactly the kind of thinking that is prevalent at major turning points. Ted Arnold opined that the ensuing drop to 280 in the price of gold would knock out at least another 400 tons / year in supply. He made no mention of what the increased demand would be but surely it will be a few percent. The scenario he paints is one in which for a 6.5 percent decline in price the supply / demand deficit goes to perhaps 1500 tons from around the 1000 ton level where it probably is at 300 / oz. In addition, as mines close down, hedges will be bought in thus adding significantly to demand. All this is going to require central banks to actually sell lots and lots of gold just to keep the lid on. Loans will no longer do the trick because mines can no longer make any money selling forward at these prices. If gold goes to 280 where next? 250 ? At 250 most of the industry will shutter. So for a risk of 15 - 20 % from here, you get to the point where the central banks will be forced to sell perhaps 2000 or more tons a year. It ain't going to happen.

No one can know when this baby is going to turn, but this kind of risk/reward play does not come along very often. Some weekend the new European CB is going to annouce that gold is going to make up a large part of its reserve base. The gold market will be about as liquid as the Korean Won was last night.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 21:42
Mooney* U>(Great Ones! (Not just Gretzky)) ID#348169:
Does it strike anyone as strange that the great ones such as C.V. Compton Shaw, IDT, Front, etc.,Etc.,ETC. are returning now that the nonsense is done with? Certainly it doesn't surprise me. What I can barely believe is how much useless time was wasted here by so many, mostly because of ONE ____ disturber. Hitting the hay early tonight, Good-night All!
P.S. - Oldman, Capt. Bill, Mike S., Aurophile, etc.,Etc.,ETC., the coast is clear now, so please return - pronto.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 21:37
MoReGoLd U>(@West Virginia - State to seek immunity against Year 2000 glitch) ID#348129:
State to seek immunity against Year 2000 glitch

By Phil Kabler
STAFF WRITER

The state's technology czar said Monday he will seek legislation next session to give the state immunity from potential lawsuits stemming from the Year 2000 problem.

Sam Tully, chief technology officer, told members of the Joint Standing Committee on Government Organization that it will cost between $7 million and $10 million to correct the computer problem.

However, some studies suggest that West Virginia could be liable for as much as $500 million in suits from state residents who fail to receive state services because of the computer glitches.

Tully said after the meeting that he will seek some sort of legislation to protect the state from class-action lawsuits stemming from such things as welfare checks that could not processed because of the problem.

At least one state, Nevada, has already passed a law declaring that any Year 2000 errors are acts of God, so that the state will not be liable.

The Year 2000 problem will occur because most computer software codes have only two digits to represent the year. Computers will read 2000 to be 1900, or not be able to interpret it at all, causing systems to crash, state Year 2000 coordinator Kevin Keagan told lawmakers.

In its simplest form, the Year 2000 problem is that zero is less than 99, he said.

Computers, for instance, calculate age by subtracting the person's date of birth from 1999. As of 2000, uncorrected computers will reads ages as negative number, interpret them as large positive numbers, and not be able to handle them, he said.

The problem will start before 2000, however.

The date 09-09-99 is commonly used in computer programs for records and information that are intended to be permanent. However, computers will eliminate that data after Sept. 9, 1999 if corrections aren't made.

He said the problem isn't limited just to computers, but to a variety of devices that use computer chips to keep track of dates. Elevators, for instance, will assume on Jan. 1, 2000 that they have not had safety inspections in ages, and will automatically shut down.

Correcting the problem is a matter of reading each program code line-by-line, changing the program to accommodate four-digits for years, then testing to make sure the corrections work.

It is a very large maintenance problem, Keagan said, adding, This is one of the greatest problems this state will ever face.

Tully said the problem has been his top priority since he became chief technology officer.

In some cases, computer software may not be correctable, and may have to be replaced, Tully said. Tax Department computers for personal property taxes, and Division of Corrections computers are two examples where it may be necessary to replace the software outright.

He said his office is also setting priorities for correcting the problem.

The first thing we have to do is keep these money pipes from leaking. Obviously, we have to keep the financial systems going, he said.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 21:36
Leland U>() ID#31876:
ALLEN -- Auctions are a great place to trade. Last week an 1879 CC
GSA Morgan sold locally for $2,400 vs. greysheet of about $l,200. Both
seller and buyer were very happy. Had the seller presented the same coin
at a dealer...well, you know the story.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 21:31
Poorboys U>(MOONEY) ID#224149:
Everything LGB sees is through those new filtered glasses in fact he has triple vision 1+1=3 but then again he is more good-tempered lately.Happy Trails

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 21:30
tolerant1 U>(Canyon Resources) ID#31868:
On a less serious note, does anyone have an opinion on Canyon Resources?

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 21:25
223 U>(Allen: retirement country) ID#263259:
Yes, Allen, it was really strange. The Blue Ridge Parkway area and points east has an economy based on the retirement fund pyramid. A conservative estimate would be that 80% of its income is based on accumulated paper wealth or government or extractive industry. I was most impressed by the inflation of housing and land prices.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 21:20
tolerant1 U>(MoReGoLd) ID#31868:
Find a nice coast line. Simple living, no big populations. As far as I know the sail on a boat has no problem with the year 2000 bug. Fishing poles either. Gardens don't use computers to grow. A man and a woman can have a life together without a computer.

Simple location, a few thousand bucks in some lo-tech stuff and voila, a fella and friends can have a nice day of it when the bug and plague hit the computer world of progress.

Oh yeah, if you plan on eating and trading for clothes you better leave your American Express and Mastercard figment standard money system cards at home, cause here in the real world we only accept gold and silver coins.

Oh yeah, we don't place any special emphasis on how old your gold and silver is, we trade by weight.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 21:17
Mooney* U>(LGB2@_A) ID#348169:
Milk and Honey. A Taste of Honey ( Golden Honey ) - A taste - much sweeter than wine! ( Rose and Herb Albert ) I like the whip cream on the cover also if you get my drift. :- )
Thanks for the reasoned response Lgb2-a! Does this: I'm making a
bundle on my own complany stock which moves in concert with the
DOW except at an accelerated percentile rate.,
mean that your company will also crash - in concert with the DOW except at an accelerated percentile rate.? ;- )

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 21:17
JRL U>(Those were the days, my friend...) ID#253414:
Does this new password system mean that we will no longer enjoy occasional comments from alter-egos such as Bernatz ( Venadorn ( sp? ) , Sigmund Freud and the KGB Kommissionar? If so, too bad.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 21:12
tolerant1 U>(ALL) ID#31868:
There is no question that markets worldwide are being tweaked. I still want to know where all this bail out money is going to come from. Do the American people now work for the government? I say that this is a serious situation. The government knows what is best. The Fed knows what is best. The economists know what is best. ANd the printing presses work overtime.

Quite frankly, if the herd wants to be mangaged, let them. I for one have been scoping out some lovely countries where having a brain is not considered a liability. There are many countries where things are privatized. And they are not the slave labor camps, oh, sorry, countries that keep the herd well fed and maintained in the United States.

The only problem as I see it for the herd is that eventually part of it will have to be eliminated for the good of the whole. But by then there will be all those good comrade herd members that will sacrifice themselves for the good of the pasture and the herd.

Live free or Moooooooo!

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 21:08
BillD U>(quick test (from home)) ID#261269:
t.e.s.t

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 21:06
MoReGoLd U>(Y2K - New York will be like Beirut in the year 2000 unless there is a sea change in attitudes) ID#348129:
Big Apple will be bomb site in millennium

New York will be like Beirut in the year 2000 unless there is a sea change in attitudes towards the date bug problem, IT guru Ed Yourdon has warned. Speaking to the New York year 2000 interest group last week, Yourdon said it was time for managers who believe their organisations' project will fail to stand up to their bosses and demand the resources to tackle the problem effectively.

And if they don't get them, they should walk out. First-level managers know their project is doomed but they can't talk publicly about it, said Yourdon. He said the likelihood of widespread project failure and the resultant implications had not fully sunk in, even within the IT community. All the indicators, statistical and anecdotal from people tackling the problem, were weighed against a successful outcome, Yourdon added.


RBI Ltd - © 1997 Reed Business Information Limited

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:57
LGB2__A U>(Mooney, got Money? (Got Milk? Gold?) ) ID#315256:
Now Mooney, I know missing this bull market frays the nerves and all, now take a soothing glass f Rose, put on some Beethoven, put your feet up, and RELAX! Puffery? Hey it isn't ME who keeps calling an incredibly strong rising market a crash!!! Nope, no crash in sight, and new highs in the DOW in 1998 are a comin... I'm crowing because I believe in the underlying strength of this market, and while I remain on the sidelines as far as the broad market mutual funds, I'm making a bundle on my own complany stock which moves in concert with the DOW except at an accelerated percentile rate.

Meanwhile, I will mercilessly hold Puetzkian prognaticators feet to the fire as they make their Bearish predictions week after week about the looming Crash. ( Which was supposed to happen several times in the past few weeks as we know )

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:51
LGB2__A U>(@ Bart /All....Kitco delivery time / Site registration) ID#315256:
What's Kitco's normal delivery time on AE's & Maples? Also, love the site registration Bart.

Never thought I'd say that being that I was against it at one time, but I really like the fact that the really demented personality types can no longer post with impunity, nor post under phony ID's, nor post under other people's handles. The site is now, most EXCELLENT!!

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:49
Mooney* U>(@LGB@19:11?) ID#348169:
Let's see it 'CRASH' through the 8300 level before we have to listen to your puffery. Deal? Of course NOT! In that case, you wouldn't be able to use the keyboard every ten minutes or so for at least a DECADE! :- )

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:46
LGB2__A U>(Silver on the other hand.............Highest ratio since 1987) ID#315256:
Silver continues to show incredible strength in the face of Gold's fall. Gold off well over 20% in a year, silver UP from, 12 months agio, AND, as of today Silver now has the highest value relative to Gold since 1987!! VERY bullishhhh, I think I'll move more assets into Silver though heavily invested there already.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:46
MoReGoLd U>(@Y2K - We could face a global situation similar to the 1974/75 oil crisis.) ID#348129:
Year 2000 could be another oil crisis
By Giles Turnbull, New Media Correspondent, PA News



The year 2000 computer problem could bring about a global catastrophe as bad as the 1974 oil crisis, the government was warned.

Two of Britain's most prominent experts on the millennium problem delivered their clearest warning yet that more action is needed urgently to tackle it effectively.

The government had slowed down work on the issue since coming to power, and needed to take radical action - involving the Prime Minister himself - to ensure as many people as possible knew about and understood the issues, they told the Select Committee on Science and Technology at the House of Commons.

Robin Guenier, chief executive of Taskforce 2000, and Rob Wirszycz, director-general of the Computing Services and Software Association ( CSSA ) , told the committee that they had serious doubts that European Monetary Union and the year 2000 problem could both be tackled in time.

Eight per cent of all computer systems are expected to fail if nothing is done to fix them in advance, the committee was warned. That does not include the billions of microprocessors embedded in computerised equipment of all kinds all over the world.

Levels of awareness are very high regarding the problem, said Mr Guenier.

But in terms of understanding what the issue is all about we have only succeeded to a degree.

The problem is not being taken seriously enough by government or by business leaders. The number one thing that would help the campaign the most would be support from government at a most senior level - I would welcome the Prime Minister taking a stand on it.

We need a huge advertising campaign like that used to raise awareness of Aids.

My personal view is that there is no doubt that work to tackle the EMU computer issue is affecting work on the year 2000 problem. We are ending up doing the two biggest IT projects we have ever had to deal with at the same time.

Ian Hugo, executive member of Taskforce 2000, added: We could face a global situation similar to the 1974/75 oil crisis.

Mr Wirszycz added: The work of Taskforce 2000 has been damaged by the change of support strategy by the government.

The announcement of Action 2000 ( another body set up by the Labour government to look at the issue ) has reduced the campaign's momentum because it introduced an organisation that has to begin from scratch.

Don Cruickshank, chairman of Action 2000, later told the committee that his first priority was to appoint a full-time director, and team of staff to begin an urgent campaign.

He said he wanted to conduct in-depth surveys to find out the true nature of the problem within industry.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:43
C.V. Compton Shaw U>(Bullish Japanese Candlestick XAU Engulfing Line) ID#342115:
Today, we had an interesting bullish Japanese Candlestick XAU Engulfing line. However, using all technical indicators, the XAU remains bearish both short and long term. However, if the XAU continues to climb over the next few days, this could change. Silver remains bullish both short and long term. Gold remains bearish both short and long term. The dollar reamins bearish both short and long term. The crb is bearish both short and long term. Bonds are bullish both short and long term. The major market indicies show no clear technical pattern upon which to make a reasoned predictive judgement.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:42
IDT U>(IDT@home) ID#228128:
JTF and Bill B: I read, including Princeton Economics' home page by Martin Armstrong, that the U.S. is on tract for a budget surplus in early 98. So, they won't be needing to incur further debt ( unless the income from capital gains taxes start to tail off ) .

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:40
6pak U>() ID#335190:
November 20, 1997
Canada dlr ends weaker after hitting 2-1/2 yr lows

TORONTO, Nov 20 ( Reuters ) - Canada's dollar ended weaker at C$1.4202 ( US$0.7041 ) on Thursday from Wednesday's close of C$1.4160 ( US$0.7061 ) after recovering from new 2-1/2 year lows around support at C$1.4219
( US$0.7032 ) in volatile trading.

Dealers said the currency flirted with support, but failed to break through even without the aid of intervention from the Bank of Canada.
But analysts said the Bank of Canada will eventually have to intervene to stop the steady decline of the currency.I'm still a firm believer that the BoC needs to shore up the Canadian dollar, said Jeoffrey Hall at Technical Data.

A currency trader at a major Canadian bank said he expects Canada's dollar to continue its slide on Friday, breaking through support at C$1.4220 and heading to another technical support level near C$1.4280, where the Bank of Canada is expected to intervene in the currency market.

I think the feeling now is that we expect the currency to try and test the C$1.4280 level, he said. That will really test the resolve of the Bank of Canada and see if they will stick with ( currency ) intervention, or if they will try and do something with rates.

Traders said Asian instability continues to add pressure.
The Asian markets are still not performing and I think that's probably, to some degree, hurting the Canadian dollar as well, another dealer said.Although Bank of Canada Governor Gordon Thiessen told reporters in Ottawa on Wednesday that he acknowledged the Canadian dollar had weakened as a result of Asian market turmoil, he said the bank would not respond to that unless the weakness persisted.

We don't respond to declines in the dollar unless they look to us like they're going to persist for awhile, he said.The trader said the Canadian dollar should find initial support at C$1.4200, with stronger support at C$1.4220.

In economic news, Statistics Canada reported that Canada's merchandise trade surplus fell in September to C$869 million from C$1.19 billion in August ( revised from C$1.39 billion ) . It was the lowest surplus since December 1993's C$560 million.

Exports to the United States were at a record, as were overall imports.
A Reuters survey of economists had forecast a surplus of C$1.39 billion in September.

On the crosses, Canada's dollar fell to 88.63 yen from Wednesday's close of 89.61 yen, but rose to 1.2260 marks from 1.2235 marks on Wednesday.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:29
6pak U>() ID#335190:
November 20, 1997

Consumer confidence seen peaking in 1997 --U. of Mich.

ANN ARBOR, Mich. ( Reuters ) - U.S. consumer confidence is likely to peak in 1997 at its highest level in more than 30 years, followed by modest declines due to a slightly slower economy in 1998, University of Michigan consumer surveys director Richard Curtin said Thrusday.

Curtin, speaking at an economic forecasting conference here, said low inflation, low unemployment and strong personal income growth has spurred the University of Michigan's widely followed Index of Consumer Sentiment to a 1997 average of 102.9, the highest level since 1965, when it averaged 103.4.The restoration of confidence has been widespread, extending across all major population groups and in all parts of the

country, Curtin said.Significant declines in the index next year are not likely, barring any significant external shocks to the economy, Curtin said in his presentation. Data collected in October and November showed no discernible impact on consumer confidence from economic turmoil in Southeast Asia.

The 1997 peak is likely to be followed by modest declines in confidence, moving more sideward than downward, Curtin said. While possible, it is not likely that even higher levels of consumer confidence will be recorded during the year ahead. Curtin said that if the turmoil in Asia worsens, it could have a twofold effect on consumer confidence: creating uncertainty about future domestic U.S. economic prospects but also causing the Federal Reserve Board to hold off on anticipated interest rate increases, which could help spur growth in vehicle sales, home purchases and durable goods sales. It would be negative on the one side but overcome by interest rates that do not rise as much as I would expect, he said.

He said the surveys show 42 percent of U.S. families expected their financial situation to improve in 1998, compared with just 8 percent that expected their financial situation to worsen. Consumers expect inflation to remain below 3 percent during not only 1998 but over the next five years as well.

He said that although rising wages could add inflationary pressures, consumers today are very savvy and will postpone purchases and seek out discounts in an effort to limit the ability of businesses to raise prices.As consumers look ahead, they say that even though the rate of growth is going to slow, it's not going to affect unemployment levels, Curtin said. Consumers look ahead and they are quite pleased.

University of Michigan economics professor Saul Hymans, releasing his annual economic forecast Thursday, said the U.S. economy will slow from its brisk growth rate of 3.7 percent in 1997 to 2.6 percent in 1998 and 2.1 percent in 1999.

The forecast assumes a 150 basis-point increase in the U.S. federal funds rate by the Federal Reserve Board starting next spring through 1999.

Hymans and fellow researchers said they expect inflation in consumer prices in 1998 to be little different from this year's 2.1 percent but predicted the rate would increae to 2.6 percent in 1999.

In calendar year 1999, prices of medical care will rise 2.9 percent, the price of oil will rise by 2.6 percent and the prices for crude material will rise by 6.5 percent.

These are hardly major supply shocks, but they help nudge the inflation rate up from exceptionally low in 1997 to just plain low in 1999, Hymans said. We expect to witness higher inflation despite the restrictive monetary policy-- and the resulting economic slowdown -- that we assume the Fed will institute early next year.

Conventional mortgage rates should increase from 7.3 percent presently to 8.5 percent by 1999, roughly their highest level since 1991, but in line with inflation-adjusted rates over the past 23 years, Hymans predicts.

The forecast also predicts that:

-- Real disposable income, or household purchasing power, will rise 3.3 percent in 1998 and 3 percent in 1999.

-- Private housing starts will slip from 1.46 million in 1997 to 1.39 million in 1998, and to 1.35 million in 1999.

-- U.S. light vehicle sales will hold steady at 1997 levels, with 15.1 million units expected to be sold in 1998 and 15.0 million in 1999.

-- The U.S. federal budget deficit of $49 billion in 1997 will fall to $22 billion in fiscal 1998 but will rise to $48 billion in fiscal 1999.

-- Business capital spending will slow from a growth rate of 12.3 percent in 1997 to 6 percent in 1998 and to 3.2 percent in 1999.


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:23
Skylark U>( A Bullish performance) ID#93130:
No one seems to care, but the performance of the XAU and the gold stocks today was the best in weeks - and the majors closed on their highs with NEM making a nice pattern reversal. Perhaps a rally is in the making and year end selling is about finished.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:22
vronsky U>(IS IT CONCEIVABLE CENTRAL BANKS WILL SOMEDAY OUTLAW CASH? ) ID#426220:
With the staggering woes that have beset the Asian Tigers as
of late we may well need to expect a whole series of bailouts
for the Pacific economies akin to the 1980s bailout wave. And
the Fed sits poised to monetize new loans as needed. So there
is an endless stream of new debt that the Fed will be
monetizing into the foreseeable future on a grand scale.

All the while the central banks are shedding large portions of gold reserves in their on-going war on gold they are simultaneously weakening their own positions in terms of fungible, highly liquid assets.

A collapse in the stock markets and a run on bank deposits due to a global financial crisis could deal them a severe blow.

An excellent DETAILED review of Central Bank folly may be seen at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/voss112097.html

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:22
tolerant1 U>(Plaintalker) ID#31868:
Aside from the obvious slave wages etc. we have a major problem when the dollar starts to devalue. Those who think it will not are in for some serious doses of reality. The problems in Asia, which are sterilized in the media as numbers on a screen, represent the lives of people.

War could very well break out in Korea and that will not be a pretty sight in the least.

In addition the flu as it has been referred to should be more aptly labeled a plague. It is here, the outbreak underway. No matter how we try it will be impossible shrug off its effects. Those who are unprepared are to be pitied.



Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:21
6pak U>() ID#335190:
November 20, 1997

Sterling Foster executive pleads guilty

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - The former director of corporate finance at brokerage Sterling Foster & Co. pleaded guiltyThursday to conspiracy to commit securities fraud and money laundering, federal prosecutors said.

Sherman Drusin faces a possible maximum prison term of 25 years in prison and a possible maximum fine of $750,000. The plea grows out of a state and federal campaign to stop alleged abuses in the selling of stocks of small companies.

In May, regulators from 20 states accused 14 brokerage firms, including Melville, N.Y.-based Sterling Foster, of usingfraudulent high-pressure telephone tactics to sell penny stocks. Earlier in the year, the Securities and Exchange Commission sued Sterling Foster, alleging it charged customers more than double the price of new stock offerings and pocketed $75 million in fraudulent profits.

In the charges against Drusin, prosecutors said Sterling Foster acted as the principal underwriter of an initial public offering of stock issued by Applewoods Inc., which makes beauty products such as soaps, oils and lotions.

According to the charges, Drusin recruited certain people to provide interim financing to Applewoods in exchange for the company's promise to repay the loans plus interest as well as Applewoods stock and warrants to purchase Applewoods stock. Drusin and the lenders also secretly agreed they would sell the stock and warrants as directed by Sterling Foster and they would split any after-tax profits made on their sale of the securities. Drusin, in turn, secretly agreed to share the profits he received with an unnamed representative of Sterling Foster, the

charges said.

Prosecutors said that Drusin, the lenders and the Sterling Foster representative failed to disclose the arrangement to the Securities and Exchange Commission or the National Association of Securities Dealers.


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:18
Allen(USA) U>(DOOOONNAAAAAUULD, WHEEERE AAAARE YOUUUUU!!) ID#255190:

We seem to be Donald-less. Our news hound is off snuffling truffles, no doubt. And where is George when you need a good opinion, darn it.

Calling all decent and respected Kitco posters: please return. The war is over and we need to rebuild thisbit o cyber earth.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:16
6pak U>(USofA Government Law Suit @ $1.5 Billion Settlement (Tax payer Pays EH!)) ID#335190:
November 20, 1997

Glendale Fed proposes $1.5 billion settlement in suit

LOS ANGELES ( Reuters ) - Golden State Bancorp, the holding company for Glendale Federal Bank, Thursday proposed a $1.5 billion settlement in its lawsuit alleging the federal government broke promises it made to the thrift industry in the 1980s to enlist its help in the savings and loans crisis.

Glendale's lawsuit, charging the government changed accounting rules offered as goodwill incentives in the 1980s for thrifts to buy other troubled thrifts, stands as a test case for other savings and loans seeking up to about $15 billion in similar lawsuits. Glendale Federal's case, which dates back to 1990, is the largest and most advanced case in the thrift industry.

The government, whose liability has already been established, is presenting its arguments in the case to determine damages in the U.S. Court of Federal Claims in Washington, with a decision expected in the second half of 1998.

Stock in Golden State, which is giving the government until Jan. 30 to negotiate, rose $1.06 to $33.25 in consolidated Thursday.

A Justice Department spokesman said the two sides have been in settlement negotiations.We don't find it productive to discuss settlement offers in public. It's usually done in confidence between attorneys for the opposing parties, Justice Department spokesman John Russell said.

If the government agrees to the $1.5 billion settlement by Jan. 30, Glendale said it will add an equal amount to its existing community investment financing activities.We are willing to offer the government an opportunity to settle its liability for damages that are due the bank and simultaneously advance public policy, provide jobs and housing and improve the lives and outlook for California residents, Chairman Stephen Trafton said in a staetment.

While it would not fully compensate the bank for the consequences of the government's breach of contract, we believe that $1.5 billion would be a fair settlement, he said.

Hoping to take advantage of the goodwill incentives in 1981, Glendale acquired a troubled Florida thrift with $734 million in losses. The accounting changes left Glendale and several other thrifts saddled with large losses. Glendale itself almost failed in June 1993 and was forced to reorganize and shed branches to stay afloat.

With banks consolidating at a feverish pitch, Glendale and many other thrifts have long been considered prime takeover candidates, but many would-be buyers are waiting for the uncertainty of the goodwill cases to be removed before making a bid, analysts said.

http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BANKING-GLENDALEFEDER.html

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:14
Allen(USA) U>(Leland) ID#255190:

I know you were struggling with which to put first, the women or the coins ;- )

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:12
Allen(USA) U>(Japan NExt At Soup Kitchen Line (IMF)) ID#255190:

Let's see. We have Thailand 2 $18 Bln who refuses to submit to the conditions of the IMF bailout program ( fiscal rectitude just to 'harsh' ) . We have Malaysia with $40 Bln bailout plan, most of which will be used to reimburse people at $5555 per head. A caldron of corruption if ever there was one there. Now Korea needs $80 Bln while most of its top corporations disolve into bancrupcy.

Japan is using its national savings plans at $2.8 Tln to leverage itself out of the pit. There is no IMF loan program to which they can apply.

Oh, I forgot Brazil and Agrentina.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:05
Allen(USA) U>(Kiwi@19:40) ID#255190:
Everything is OK because the trust fund gave the money to Banks.

OH, YEAH. If I was a Korean I would be REALLY & TRULY comforted by that statement!

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 20:04
Leland U>() ID#31876:
ALLEN -- I agree with your 19:44. Bullion coins ( Eagles, etc. ) probably are the best bet. Numismatics should be a 2nd choice in my
opinion.
There are two weaknesses that I've never been able to overcome...beautiful women and authentically georgeous coins. They are
so much fun!



Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 19:58
Allen(USA) U>(@LGB_2_A) ID#255190:

Yes they are selling. but how much? Demand is down 60% which is mostly for jewlry fabrication. Balance any of their selling against the upsurge in demand from India. The Malays also sold gold as per JIN's report after the currency dropped like a rock. Do they have enough to liquidate their debts? ( either hong kong or Malaysia ) I don't think so.

Looking at it from the gold merchant's perspective: people are willing to sell gold so they can buy it at somwhat of a discount and complain that no one wants to buy. They can hold it because they know their currencies and markets are going to hell in a hand basket. The longer they hold it and the currency drops the better the turn around for them. That gold is stockpiling in valts and wont see the market for a while until the dust settles. It will go no further thn the local market.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 19:51
plaintalker U>(world gulliability) ID#217338:
Fellow Kitcoites: Do not ever let anyone tell you that Americans are not the smartest people in the world.
We have most of the human race outside the US working hard at slave labor wages 15-75c an hour to provide us with with near 100% of our total requirement of clothing, shoes, tv`s, vcr`s, toys, small appliances and many other items in addition to neary 50% of our automobiles and the oil to run them. In return for these goods we give them hyper inflated paper.
With all the foregoing in mind why would we ever allow gold to become money to the world? We could no longer convince the other people of the world to ship us more than 10 billion $ a month in goods ( current balance of payments deficit ) in return for paper, they would want Gold. Enough said.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 19:44
Allen(USA) U>(@223 & Leland) ID#255190:

223 - was it you that took that drive a few days ago through 'inflation' country? I think I remember something about 1 0z Au coins going for an outrageous premium over spot. Make me tempted to become a traveling gold coin saleman ;- )

Leland - just need to figure out which ones are going to go up! I buy bullion coins, not mnuemistics. Just can't bring myself to spend the time trying to figure that game out. It seems that when ever you buy it is dear, but when ever you sell it is not so very dear. The coin dealers seem to have you over a barrel unless you have a local auction/mart where you can trade directly with others. Maybe I'm missing something ...

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 19:44
kiwi U>(Movers and shakers) ID#194311:
Massive shakeup of banking sector under way in United States
NEW YORK, Nov 19 ( AFP ) - The US banking industry is undergoing a
massive shakeup, with acquisitions getting increasingly expensive,
as evidenced by the record price paid for CoreStates Financial by
First Union Bank.
The shakeout is seen in the shrinking number of commercial banks
in the United States. There are currently 9,500, compared to some
14,000 in 1980. And there have been four bank mergers since 1995
that have exceeded 10 billion dollars.
On the whole, however, banking and insurance remain quite
separate because of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act that set strict
limits on banking, insurance and brokerage.
Debate in Congress about repealing the law has been blocked by
insurance lobbyists, who seek to protect their share of the
industry.
Still, the law has gradually eased. Since the end of 1996, banks
have been permitted to earn as much as 25 percent of their income
from non-banking services, like brokerage.


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 19:40
kiwi U>(Panic...what panic?) ID#194311:
South Korean trust funds swamped with panic withdrawals
SEOUL, Nov 20 ( AFP ) - Nervous depositors swamped South Korean
trust funds Thursday to withdraw their savings on fears that the
industry may collapse, dealers sid.
For three hours in the morning some 200 billion won ( 175 million
dollars ) was withdrawn from 23 trust funds nationwide, Yonhap News
Agency said.
The panic, which subsided in the afternoon, was prompted by
worries that the money at trust funds would not be protected under a
financial reform package announced Wednesday, Yonhap said.
The package, announced by finance minister Lim Chang-Yuel,
provided protection for bank clients amid South Korea's financial
crisis, but did not mention trust funds.
But the panic subsided in the afternoon after the funds promised
that their clients' money would be protected by law because they
were redeposited at commercial banks.
Worries that the deposits will not be protected are groundless.
All the deposits are safely kept by banks, the association of trust
funds said in a hurriedly-issued statement.
Park Hyo-Joon, a dealer at Shin Han Securities the mass
withdrawals had aggravated the gloom on the stock exchange
Thursday.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 19:34
tolerant1 U>(LGB2) ID#31868:
Fair enough.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 19:29
LGB2__A U>(Tolerant, GOLD dumping) ID#310407:
Article stated it was several S.E. Asia markets, starting with the Thai baht. Sellers were selling even their Gold jewelry out of economic distress. My point was that deflation and bad times have the OPPOSITE effect as what's been stated here so many times. People is distress will dump their precious metals, just as they did in the great depression.

AS a numismatist, we look back on the depression with sadness because so many Gold and silver coins were dumped on the market and circulated that had been sitting in people's safe spots being preserved for a rainy day or to pass on to their kids.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 19:22
tolerant1 U>(LGB2) ID#31868:
I think Newmont cleared their hedge in the summer as well. At the time it was said to be bullish for gold.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 19:18
tolerant1 U>(LGB2) ID#31868:
Did the article happen to mention how much of each currency they got per oz of gold. I would not see that as dumping, I see that as having no choice, sell gold and survive.

You make it sound as if these people could not wait to have their lives totally disrupted so they could dump their gold.

You must admit, at least they had gold to dump.

Not trying to pick an argument. But merely reducing the spin might be in order.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 19:16
LGB2__A U>(Newmont Mining, WSJ) ID#310407:
WSJ had an article on Newmont today also, stating that their drop in dividend was due to the fact that they havn't forward sold their Gold, and that they'll gut it out with reduced dividend costs in the belief that Gold's low price will not last. Now THEREs some good solid gutsy management. Though I think Gold is a Bear in the VERy short term, long term it's a great buy, so they're doing the right thing.

Now how bout that Pegasus at $1.05 a share?

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 19:15
Hawk U>(Sadam) ID#402182:
USA seems to be suspicious about the Russia/Iraq deal.

I would be also.

Perhaps Russia knows that the bubble is going to DEFLATE via
Japan/China dumping the US $.

How much Gold does Russia have?. We all know about the rubble.

Maybee they told Sadam, Why all the fuss, let them look around, sell them more oil and buy their Gold with their money.
We even have Nukecases you can buy with their money, so why all
fuss, let them look and take their money before it turns into rubbles.


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 19:12
Hedgehog U>(Delta Gold) ID#39845:
Anyone remember this platinum play, Delta Gold? Up 20% first hour of
trade on ASX to 1.60.
Sign said ya gotta have a membership card to get inside
So I stuck all my hair up under my hat
And I went in to ask him why
He said you look like a fine upstanding young man I think you do
So I took off my hat and said imagine that yeh
Me working for you oh
Sign sign everywhere a sign
Walking down the street there invading my mind
Do this dont do that cant you read the sign.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 19:11
LGB2__A U>(DOW's sickly performance today) ID#310407:
We MUST be in the middle of a crash, after all the weak sickly DOW was wasn't even able to maintain it's peak today and rose a measly 102 points on the close. What with the hand full of other gains in the past week and the crash back up through that 7700 level, we MUST be on the verge of a total meltdown. Anemic, sickly DOW, bail out quick! Crash coming tomorrow!

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 19:07
vronsky U>(Rothschilds, Soros & RJ CANNOT BE WRONG) ID#426220:
We have all recently learned the Rothschilds & Soros have been covertly buying up silver properties via a company going public very soon. And today our own RJ reiterates his bullish outlook for the ‘Poor Man’s Gold’ -- SILVER. However, we must should due reverence to Claude Cormier, who first shared his considerable insights with us about silver in his mid-year “Goldbug’s Weekly Comment.”

In Cormier’s report “Silver stocks, there ain't too many!” -posted at GOLD-EAGLE, he recommended six silver stocks with outstanding potential - albeit within a precious metals bear market. Let’s capsulate here how these stocks have performed since their mid-year lows:

Pan American Silver ( PAA ) ........UP 53%
Silver Standard ( SSO ) ...............UP 57%
International Avino ( ASM ) ........UP 50%
First Silver Reserve ( FSR ) ..........UP 86%
United Keno Hills ( UKH ) ..........UP 11%
Clifton Mining ( CFB ) ................Down 4%

That’s an average 42% Silver portfolio gain during the last five months - while gold have been miserably dribbling downwards!!

KUDOS & ACCOLADES for an Analyst Par Excellence: Claude Cormier

Please be aware that if you CLICK on the silver stock symbol in his report “Silver stocks, there ain't too many!” - the curent daily price chart pops up.

You may read his entire mid-year SILVER FORECAST at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/goldbug613.html


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 18:59
LGB2__A U>(DOW Bear/Crash , Puetz where are you) ID#310407:
Yes yes, it is the real LGB, this is my home computer handle. Now then, Puetz, where is that DOW crash?

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 18:58
MoReGoLd U>(@BREAKING NEWS) ID#348129:
JUST HEARD ON NBR, South Korea to seek a $70 to $80 BILLION
bailout from the IMF!
Bigger than Mexico! This is insane and should not be paid by the G7.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 18:58
LGB2__A U>(GOLD ......... Bearish news from Asia) ID#310407:
Contrary to theory's presented on this forum lately, Southeast Asian investors are dumping GOLD big time in the face of their currency crises and economic chaos. The Wall Street journal reported today that Southeast Asia demand/consumtion of GOLD has plummeted 52.8% in the thirs quarter, compared with the same quarter last year. The article went on to state that rather than buying Gold as a result of lost confidence in Govt. currency, Asinas are DUMPING GOLD to satisfy debt obligations.

Hmmm the exact OPPOSITE effect of what's preached here day after day. The article went on to state that even in the face of CB sales, Gold should have responded to the IRAQ situation and Asian financial crises and the fact that it did not do so is extremely bearish. Article stated that Gols should be testing it's $280 support point next.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 18:56
Leland U>() ID#31876:
ALLEN -- Response to your 16:27, there was a feature story in my local
newspaper today. The reporter interviewed a local coin and stamp shop
owner. The bug bit the shop owner in 1932 when his grandfather gave him a 1851 o half dime. The coin was probably worth $.15 in 1932. When the reporter ask if he still had the coin, and what was the coin
possibly worth today, the coin shop owner pulled down a reference book,
replied Yes, and its worth about $9.00 today.

Enough said.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 18:50
panda U>(Guilty!) ID#30116:
tolerant1 -- Guilty as charged! Send the convict to the poor house! That is where all goldbugs belong! :- ) ) ( Said a judge in the court of public opinion. )

I believe it was the late FDR who said, In politics, NOTHING happens by 'accident'.

Somtimes, you have to respect experts in their fields... :- )

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 18:38
vronsky U>(BOJ TO THE RESCUE OF NIKKEI (a.k.a. The Yo-Yo Index)) ID#426220:
With Blitzkrieg effectiveness the Nikkei soared 1200 points last Monday to 16283 -- a gain of nearly 8%. Then another sizable gain the next day... only to be followed by the WORST one day loss in 1997... then up again!

REPORT FROM TOKYO: “Monday's rally reflected a perception among investors that authorities were taking active steps to help the ailing financial sector following news that Hokkaido Takushoku
Bank Ltd's business will be taken over by another regional bank.”

The above will eventually prove INDEED to be a mammoth understatement... “that authorities were taking active steps to help the ailing financial sector...” IMO there is only one force which possesses the financial clout and MOTIVATION to temporarily detour the downward spiral of Japanese stock prices: THE BANK OF JAPAN ( BOJ ) - Central Bank of Japan!

Consider the scenario. Japan’s corporate world riddled with scandal... top executives jailed. The economy in a worsening recession. Interest rates nearly abolished in futile attempt to stimulate economic activity. Japanese Banking system relentlessly crumbling due to domestic unperforming loans, estimated by Nippon experts to be between US$400-US$800 BILLION. Adding to the banking systems burden are massive bank failures in most Tiger nations, which are the Nippon’s largest debtors. Massive withdrawals of funds from Japanese insurance companies, due to fear they will fail. In light of all these negative factors the Japanese saver has lost all confidence in their financial sector. ALL THE ABOVE IS KNOWN TO EVERYONE... native and foreigner. SO, WHERE DID ALL THE MONEY COME FROM TO CAUSE AN 8% RISE IN THE NIKKEI IN ONE SINGLE DAY?

It is not foreign money!
It is not Japanese savers money!
It can ONLY be the BOJ, which has motive and means!

Whereas the BOJ will momentarily deter the slide in Nikkei, it will not resolve the underlying problems plaguing Japan and the rest of Asia. It is a ruse to confuse.

To appreciate the grim financial and economic conditions - becoming worse daily - one must examine the problems. This weekend an outstanding article was posted at GOLD-EAGLE, which describes in minute detail what is happening in Asia.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn111597.html

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 18:36
tolerant1 U>(Panda) ID#31868:
Careful now. Any defense of gold as money could label you a goldbug, a conspiracy monger, a deluded soul, living a Midas Mirage.



Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 18:30
panda U>(XAU, HUI, and DOW) ID#30116:
XAU up 2.9%, HUI up 1.8%, DOW up 1.3%

If I read another one of these puking WSJ articles on gold again.... Let me get this straight. My currency falls apart and this causes me to sell gold? Perhaps I would be trading gold for goods because no one would accept my 'currency' or, perhaps, the 'valuation' of that currency were too unstable... I guess the financial writers of the world just can't come to grips with the reality that gold == money. Everything else is a proxy.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 18:27
tolerant1 U>(Thoughts on Gold) ID#31868:
Gold Mining Outlook

by Steven Jon Kaplan
Updated @ 5:30 p.m. EDT, Thursday, November 20, 1997.

COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities ended Thursday sharply lower, while precious metals were mostly slightly lower in moderate trading. Gold dropped $1.20, silver gained one cent, platinum fell eighty cents, and palladium was down thirty cents. Sentiment remains extraordinarily bearish as the news media continue to predict an imminent gold price drop to $280 since there's no reason for it to do otherwise. The XAU, an index of primarily large-capitalization North American gold mining shares, fell to its lowest level since February 5, 1993 before ending with a gain.

Russian commercial banks are expected to buy 44-45 tonnes of gold in the remainder of 1997 and early in 1998, according to the head of the Finance Ministry's precious metals department Valery Goncharov, as quoted by the Russian news agency Prime Tass on Thursday. ( According to Morgan Stanley in a report released on Wednesday, It might surprise some gold bears to know that 19 central banks added to their gold reserves last year, while only 16 sold. )

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 18:26
Mike Stewart U>(South African Quarterly Reports) ID#270253:
Anglo American has several large mines in South Africa. The North American press refers to them as tired, high cost producers. Have a look at the numbers! Most can break even or make money with $300 gold. They quote mining costs including everything except capital expenditures.

The North Americans quote attractive cash costs ( eg. 225/oz ) and then mention the real cost of producing is $365. Check out today's Echo Bay quarterly report on Yahoo for a good example.

These South Africans are the best thing out there. They trade like options without an expiry and pay dividends while you wait.

http://www.aac.co.za/gold/gnquart.html#971023-04

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 18:16
DEJ U>(Trade figures) ID#269191:
Today's trade figures may well mark a major turning point. With the Fed
hamstrung from raising rates and the current account deficit soaring, the
dollar may be the next currency to come under attack. If the dollar starts dropping, the world will need a new safe haven. Buy your gold now
while it's dirt cheap.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 17:52
223 U>(@ nowhere) ID#263259:
Allen: I've been noticing that as the bullion prices go down the retail prices for the same products go up. I saw a fellow trying to sell 1/4 ounce gold eagles a couple of weeks ago for 230% of gold value plus sales tax. And he had the most pleasant and easygoing spiel you could imagine...

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 17:31
BillD U>(XAU STOCK VOLUME) ID#258427:
Best volume in XAU stocks today that I have seen in the past year. Really big volume!! George Cole...what do you think Is this the beginning of something *good*

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 16:59
Peter (born loser) U>(apology for duplication) ID#15658:
Sorry: I should have thought to check whether the article had already been posted here! Oh well. p

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 16:56
Peter (born loser) U>(Rees-Mogg article) ID#15658:
The following article by William Rees-Mogg appeared in today's Times.
Don't be put off by the title.
Best wishes to all,
Peter.

That which glisters may not always be a sensible investment -
but we continue to be fascinated by it

Is gold only for fools?

In the past fifteen years an interest in gold has not been a
good way to make money, but it has been a good way to
think about money. Probably the most successful and
certainly the most powerful of central bankers in the 1990s
has been Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal
Reserve. His understanding of the world's monetary system
was partly built on his study of the old gold standard. In 1966
he wrote a paper Gold and Economic Freedom, in which
he argued that in the absence of the gold standard, there is
no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation.
He was still something of a gold theorist when I met him in the
Nixon years.

Now that inflation has been slowed, the public has become
less worried about it. Nevertheless, in Britain the subtle theft
of inflation continues to reduce the purchasing power of
money; by 20 per cent since 1990, by 57 per cent since
1980 and by 98 per cent since 1914. The century of paper
money has been a century of depreciation. The rate of decline
may vary in the future, but the decline itself can be expected
to continue. Greenspan's statement of 1966 may seem almost
other-worldly but it has, in fact, proved correct.

The recent fall in the gold price has taken gold back through
an interesting landmark. The purchasing power of an ounce of
the metal is below where it was before Britain went off the
gold standard in 1931. If one takes the purchasing power of
gold in 1930 as 100, the purchasing power today stands at
91. The history of gold prices shows a centuries-old pattern
which, in his book published in 1977, Professor Roy Jastram
called the Golden Constant. He established that the general
level of prices had historically moved above and below the
gold price, but had always been drawn back towards it.

The gold value of a sovereign now has much the same
purchasing power as it would have had in 1972, 1874, 1857,
1821, 1794, 1776 or 1723, or, indeed, in 1649, the year
Cromwell cut off the head of Charles I. In 1997 we can see
gold once again performing its strangest trick of all, and acting
as a long-term measure of value. It has behaved in this way
for an amazingly long time. Although the two metals have
since diverged because of changes in mining technologies, the
ratio of the prices of gold and silver was the same in the first
year of the reign of Queen Victoria as it had been in the last
year of the reign of the Emperor Augustus.

Nobody can study the history of gold without becoming
fascinated by these long-term price relationships. Gold is at
present on the cheap side of its historic value in Britain;
farmland in England has usually been worth between five and
ten ounces of gold an acre, according to the quality of the
land. At £170 an ounce, that would give a price of £850 to
£1,700 an acre, which is at present on the low side. On the
other hand, £20 an acre, which was then equivalent to five
ounces of gold, was normal for farmland throughout the
agricultural depression from the 1870s to the 1940s.

When gold had its last great boom, it went to $800 an ounce.
That was the result of a worldwide panic about inflation in the
1970s and early 1980s. Now all serious investors have given
up on it. The goldbugs still have a sentimental nostalgia for the
days when one could actually make money out of
gold-related investments, but they have prophesied so many
false dawns that their arguments no longer have any place in
sober investment analysis. No investment fashion has been so
thoroughly exploded as gold; most people think that there will
no more be another gold boom than there will be another
boom in tulip futures in The Netherlands.

One cannot be so sure about the future of this mysterious
metal. Roy Jastram gives a table of the purchasing power of
gold, starting from 1600. It has certainly outperformed paper
currencies.

Year Purchasing Power of Gold
1600.............125
1650.............97
1700.............120
1750.............111
1800.............76
1850.............111
1900.............143
1950.............103

I suppose that one might have been pretty gloomy about the
outlook for gold in 1800. William Pitt might fall; Napoleon
might invade; Nelson might lose at Trafalgar; Wellington
might lose at Waterloo; Rothschild and Barings might lose
control of the gold market. Yet gold's purchasing power rose
by 50 per cent in the next 50 years and doubled in the next
century. From the present level of 91, the index could repeat
that performance in the 21st century, or it could just remain
its constant self, as it did in the 17th.

Even the stock market performance of gold investments does
not all go one way. I have recently had an intriguing letter
from Andrew Lampert, well known in the gold world as a
director of Midland Walwyn, a Toronto investment firm with
the courage to have a gold bias. He sent me a chart of the
share price of Homestake Mining, an American S. gold
producer, measured against the Dow Jones index. Ten
thousand dollars invested in Homestake in 1892 would now
be worth a little over $1,000,000; $10,000 invested in the
Dow would be worth a little less than $1,000,000. But the
experience in between would have been very different.
Homestake outperformed the index from 1892 to about
1910, underperformed from 1910 to 1929, outperformed
spectacularly in the 1930s, and underperformed in the 1940s,
1950s, and early 1960s. The Dow Jones traded around the
1,000 level from 1966 to 1982 and Homestake appreciated
by 466 per cent. In the past 15 years, the Dow Jones has
gained a massive 645 per cent against Homestake moving up
by just 8 per cent. Perhaps the pendulum will eventually
swing again; pendulums often do.

Most people think of gold as a protection against inflation,
and expect it to rise in inflationary periods, but fall with
deflation. Roy Jastram examined the UK and American price
record to 1976, and reached these rather unexpected
conclusions:

1. Gold is a poor hedge against major inflations.

2. Gold appreciates in operational wealth in major deflations.

3. Gold does maintain its purchasing power over long periods
of time.

The current purchasing power of gold in Britain is close to the
historic lows of the Civil War, the collapse of the South Sea
bubble, the American War of Independence, the Napoleonic
wars, the First World War and the General Strike. Gold may
not be cheap, but for the British it hardly looks expensive -
not unless we are expecting a war, a crash or a general strike
in the near future.

It looks very different in Asia. The South East Asian
economies of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia have all
devalued against the dollar in the past six months; so has
South Korea; the big Japanese devaluation has continued. In
terms of all of these currencies, gold has been static or firm. It
has not done as well as the dollar, but it has served its
traditional function of acting as a stable reserve. It has also
met its textbook desciption of being both a real asset, such as
property, and a liquid one, such as cash.

At present, the dollar is king of the world currencies; most of
the Asian currencies have devalued against it and even the
euro has been prospectively devalued against it, 18 months
before it has even come into existence. Sterling has also
appreciated, and has been stronger than the dollar itself. Yet
some commentators fear that the Asian devaluations may be
the first of a wave of competitive global devaluations, like
those in the 1930s, which included Europe and America. In
the 1930s almost every currency was devalued in terms of
gold.

Several of the world's central banks have recently been
selling gold, on the argument that the dollar offers both
appreciation and an interest yield, while gold has depreciated
and provided no income. So far they have been right, but
what will they do if the dollar itself has to be devalued?
Already, the United States has a trade deficit and is far from
competitive in cost with Asia. At some point in the future, the
dollar may be seen as unsustainably overvalued. Then
presumably the dollar price of gold will start to rise - the
2,500-year history of gold as a store of value may be far
from finished.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 16:51
Goldilocks and the three BEARS U>(Saddam Hussein - What a sneaky snake !) ID#430219:
The following is a quote from the newsletter INSIDE TRACK dated 11/03/97:

A subscriber also alerted me to one other possible explanation regarding crude oil. It is based on a theory by another editor -- whose name I can not locate -- that Saddam Hussein is using the futures markets to finance the rebuilding of his infrastructure and armed forces. He allows the markets to sell off ( after shorting them through Swiss bank accounts ) only to balk at -- or threaten -- inspectors after he has reversed long. After running up the price by $2-3.00 per barrel, he repeats the process over and over again. At first, this sounded like a stretch. Now, I have to wonder.

This was printed 11/03/97, seems to me that's just what happened, any comments

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 16:50
Paul U>(Password) ID#22785:
Password Test.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 16:31
TPher U>(korondy - 16:09) ID#20347:

I think First Boston's buy recommendation for Battle Mountain Gold ( BMG ) also helped. BMG up 7/16 today on volume of 1,050,600 shares.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 16:27
Allen(USA) U>(Just Checked In With Dealer) ID#246224:
The regional dealer I have mentioned here in the past has reported a 300% increase in coin orders from a few months back ( prior to USA crash-lette ) . He said The orders are coming in faster than we can fill them .. as fast as we find them their out of here. When I asked about silver bars he said We can't get them. This company is turning over 3 to 5 thousand ounces a week now ( gold ) . And silver is getting scarce.

I hate to be a noodge but am wondering if those here have their portfolios completed in terms of converting paper money to bullion. We saw a surge of demand ( approximately 30% increase for a week ) just after the market drop at the end of October. This is different than a surge. It is a steady stream of new customers looking for bullion. Maybe those TV programs on HOW TO BUY GOLD had an effect after all. These are the early adopters of the general public.

Many people are still waiting to see gold prices rise before their commit serious money to bullion. If there is any bullion left for them to buy it will be dear. If gold falls further those who are now buying will buy more since they probably are bargain hunters. The next wave will completely overwhelm the gold/silver bullion market place. 10 Mln people with an average of $5000 looking for gold. That's $50 Bln hungry dollars searching for the yellow and white stuff. We are talking a major market lock up here folks. Name your price.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 16:15
JTF U>(US Debt Ceiling) ID#57232:
Bill Buckler: At the rate we are going now, we will hit the new ceiling in about three months! I remember all the commotion the last time, and what it did to the markets. The markets are more vulnerable this time, I think.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 16:15
pyramid U>(vronsky 10:12) ID#217268:
Are you suggesting the big boys might be positioning themselves to underwrite a portion of worldwide paper currencies with BOTH SILVER AND GOLD, securing a position in silver first while driving the price of gold lower, for acquisition later ?

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 16:15
MinhLe U>() ID#350263:
zzzz

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 16:14
Tantalus Rex U>() ID#37495:
ddd

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 16:13
korondy U>(Dow Spike) ID#222186:
JTF, The opening spike in the Dow looks as phoney as a $3 bill. I think there may have been a misprint in one of the Dow stocks, which was subsequently corrected ( such as IBM crossing at 203 rather than 103 ) , but the indeces were not adjusted.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 16:09
korondy U>(A Dim Ray of Hope) ID#222186:
The HUI.X made a new multi-year low today ( 103.98 ) and then closed above yesterday's intraday high. I believe this technical phenomenon is called a BULLISH KEY REVERSAL and it is very rare. The XAU.X nearly mirrored this stellar performance ( ended up pennies shy of yesterday's intraday high ) , as did the GOX.X ( which failed to make a new low today, but closed above yesterday's intraday high. ) Well, you go figure. Maybe, just maybe, there is some life in them gold stocks. BTW, today's performance is largely attributable to NEM which has been beaten up more than most since cutting its dividend.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 16:05
JTF U>(DOW spike at open?) ID#57232:
All: I can't tell from my intraday source ( Telescan ) whether the DOW spike is real. I wonder -- if the S Korean WON dropped 10% last night, and foreign investors sold their investments to flee to dollars, could that be it?

Is the current market rally a flight to safety by foreign investors? I would guess that they might prefer the blue chips of the DOW to other stocks. If so, the DOW would go up more proportionately to the other indices.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 15:50
GFD U>(A Kitco Classic) ID#424345:
Kiwi!! Your 13:23 post will go down as one of the all time classics at Kitco. Bravo!!

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 15:45
GVC U>() ID#249453:
test

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 15:33
ORIO U>(New Password) ID#242251:
Hello, I think we start using new password!!!

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 15:32
Carl U>(Does Clinton know his own mind? Washington Post) ID#333131:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/iraq/stories/policy20.htm

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 15:24
Bill Buckler U>(Debt Ceiling) ID#257234:
I note another spike. The Treasury's debt to the penny page at
shows the debt at just over $US 5.452 Trillion. That makes $US 48 billion to go to the debt ceiling. It will be interesting to see how long they can spin it out until the ceiling is hit this time.

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 15:23
Allen(USA) U>(Public Press and Opinion is ..) ID#246224:
.. more a wind sock than a barometer. It tells us what is becoming/is public discussion, not what is essentially an important indicator of things to come. A wind sock tells the direction and intensity of wind at a particular point at a specific time. It responds to the present situation. A barometer registers far more subtle changes which may be used in prediction.

The fact that the press doesn't pick up and broadcast the COMEX ( and other supply/demand ) problems is an indicator. It tells us that the public ( both the general public and the financial community ) is clueless with regard to this issue. That in itself is of interest.

If someone wants to argue that 'since the news didn't ruffle the public, then it must not be terribly important' then we will need to ask SINCE WHEN HAS PUBLIC OPINION BEEN A PREDICTOR OF SUDDEN CHANGE? If people are always SURPRISED by panics ( either buying or selling ) then why put any weight on them being a predictor of a sudden reversal in gold or silver's fortunes?

If we care to we may be able to use various segments of the public, divided as to their past performance, to GAUGE the progress of an idea in the common mind; How far along has this idea come to being 'common wisdom'? But never use public opinion/reaction as a predictor.

So far we have seen a small reversal of *topic control* in the media with regard to gold. Before the crash-lette in the US the uniform concesus was that gold is superfluous. It was brought out as a straw man to be beaten. After the first impact on US markets we have actually seen some programming which has treated gold bullion as an avenue of safety IF YOU ARE FEELING UNSAFE. There has been a program or two on How To Buy Gold. A few have even had minor debates ( allowed conflict of opinion ) on TV as to its relevance.

This is the first major breach of public consciousness. It is important and must be noted.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 15:23
Carl U>(South Korea turns to Japan after US non response, Rome is burning while Clinton ...?) ID#333131:
http://www.boston.com/globe/latest/daily/20/skorea.htm

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 15:22
Bill Buckler U>(Debt Ceiling) ID#257234:
I note another spike. The Treasury's debt to the penny page at
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm shows the debt at just over $US 5.452 Trillion. That makes $US 48 billion to go to the debt ceiling. It will be interesting to see how long they can spin it out until the ceiling is hit this time.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 15:20
silver plate U>(gold standard) ID#288433:
KIWI: I like your logic. right on

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 15:15
kiwi U>(Why a gold standard?) ID#194311:
Here's my take on it. Two people from different valleys, counties, cultures or countries want to trade, this is human nature. However they argue over what each others goods are worth, this also is human nature. A unit of known finite value has to be agreed between them or else the trade isn't going to happen, something has to be constant. Over the years, for better or worse, nearly all cultures and countries have accepted a unit of gold as good for barter and exchange. It is naive to say westerners have now moved away from this idea and have a new found confidence in the trust of others not to over inflate their currency.

The present shouting match as to whose currency is worth more will end up, as it most often has done, with an agreement to use as a constant something of known finite value that they can both agree on, but is impartial to the both of them, most likely this will be gold.
If the central banks are really physically releasing gold from their vaults this is a good thing for the world and should cause an increase in the world's money supply over and above the natural rate as measured by gold. If however they are only releasing the promise of gold they are artificially inflating the money supply, at their peril, in exactly the same way as if they were to be creating currency at a rate faster than their agreed upon unit of account, gold, was being added to the system.


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 15:13
Bill Buckler U>(Password Test) ID#257234:
Latest I have on the Dow is Up 131. Quote.com shows an amazing

spike right at the opening. I also note that long bond yields are

up slightly.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 15:10
Carl U>(refer, Brush Creek news) ID#333131:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/971120/brush_creek_1.html

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 14:58
AlKahulik U>(I GIVE UP) ID#178174:
Well, I'm going to go have another drink and sign back on after I've sobered up. Maybe gold will have skyrockected. My EMAIL id is yu115016@yorku.ca if you can help

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 14:57
AlKahulik U>(Changing Passwords) ID#178174:
Is it possible to change passwords? My Name is Tantalus Rex, not Alchoholic a.k.a AlKahulik. WHat the * ( ^^!@+&*& is going on. I'm not impressed.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 14:54
AlKahulik U>(yu115016@yorku.ca) ID#178174:
I was sent a passwrod that was 14 chracters long from KITCO after I regestered. Is this normal? I never selected the ID AlKahulik but it looks like I broke into the systems by accident SOmeone help....

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 14:48
AlKahulik U>() ID#178174:
test

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 14:46
AlKahulik U>(test) ID#178174:
test

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 14:31
kiwi U>(Kudos to...The Times of London) ID#194311:
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/Times/frontpage.html?1477782

The article's in the Opinion section, author William Rees-Mogg. This indicates gold is re-entering Western public consciousness, perhaps the best indicator that the tide is turning.
What I find most interesting is that if monetary growth were to be set by a gold standard ( i.e. the rate at which new gold is added to world stocks ) this would keep it at around 2.5%...a figure purported by many economists/banker gurus as an optimum inflation/monetary growth rate. Historically when money grows too fast or too slow, as measured by gold, things get out of whack only to adjust again, sometimes painfully, e.g. bubbles bursting, crashes, depressions.
Does anybody have figures of worldwide monetary growth in the recent decades? This may give a good look at where we stand and which way things will most likely correct towards.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 14:26
tolerant1 U>(Kiwi) ID#31868:
Excellent post.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 14:07
Selby U>(Gold History) ID#287207:
Kiwi: Great post. Should be used as an example of what this site is at its best. I guess a message is that gold is a good investment at some points in time and not at others. The trick is to understand where it is going at YOUR point in time and invest accordingly.

Reminds me of the sail boat--power boat analogy that was posted here over a year ago. The sailboat goldbugs see which way the wind is blowing and invest accordingly. The power boat gold bugs know where they want the wind to blow and often invest as if they can get gold to go against the wind. Often the power boat guys have insufficient tact. : )

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 14:00
JTF U>(@Gold - a currency with constant purchasing power) ID#57232:
Kiwi- I am impressed! You do computer modeling of the effects of the new Chinese dam on the stability of the earth's rotational axis, and you knew AG in 1966. Even if this is a quote from someone else -- very well chosen. we all needed that.

I especially like the comment by Roy Jastram that gold is a poor hedge against inflation, but a much better currency hedge during major deflations. When everyone either has debt or owns liability, that money can vanish in an instant, but not if you own gold. So, the deflation associated with debt crises is actually a process of inflation for paper vs gold, because all of a sudden all the paper money ( read debt ) is worthless. Perhaps another way to say it is that all of those years of inflation, the hidden inflationary effect of all that debt and credit come home to roost all at once during that major deflationary period.

Look how much more gold is worth in SE Asia, and all the unhappy people who didn't bother to buy it when they could afford it!

Right now the Western Central banks are spending or lending their real money - gold - to keep the dollar strong. It is only a matter of time before they realize they are getting rid of the good currency to support the bad - paper. I think this is exactly what was happening in the UK, Germany and several other countries around 1925, and why those world banking leaders came to the US -- asking the US bankers to inflate the dollar in an attempt to stop the gold exodus from Europe. This time the gold is going to the Middle East, SE Asia, China, India and ?. We are just repeating the same cycle again -- and we are at the top of the currency Tsunami, looking down at the beach! Just a matter of time.

We should be using all that Western world Central Bank Gold to restore a gold-backed currency now -- not throw it away!

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 13:48
refer U>(Brush Creek Mining) ID#41229:
Up 40% today! Anybody know why.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 13:48
Mooney* U>(Kudos) ID#348169:
Kiwi and others. Great to have this place back to its former fantastical functioning form! Thanks Bart!

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 13:46
Crystal Ball U>(@kiwi) ID#287367:
You are most complete and powerfully cogent !

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 13:27
Selby U>(Vronsky's Post) ID#287207:
Dave Ricardo said it a lot better than I did.

David Ricardo, the great supply-side, classical
economist of the 19th century, wrote in his Principles of Political
Economy in London of 1821, that When money is working at the peak
of efficiency, the central bank need hold no gold.


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 13:23
kiwi U>(Gold vs. Dollar...simple) ID#194311:
In the past fifteen years an interest in gold has not been a good way to
make money, but it has been a good way to think about money. Probably the
most successful and certainly the most powerful of central bankers in the 1990s has been Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. His understanding of the world's monetary system was partly built on his study of the old gold standard. In 1966 he wrote a paper Gold and Economic Freedom, in which he argued that in the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. He was still something of a gold theorist when I met him in the Nixon years.

Now that inflation has been slowed, the public has become less worried about it. Nevertheless, in Britain the subtle theft of inflation continues to reduce the purchasing power of money; by 20 per cent since 1990, by 57 per cent since 1980 and by 98 per cent since 1914. The century of paper money has been a century of depreciation. The rate of
decline may vary in the future, but the decline itself can be expected to continue. Greenspan's statement of 1966 may seem almost other-worldly but it has, in fact, proved correct.

The recent fall in the gold price has taken gold back through an interesting landmark. The purchasing power of an ounce of the metal is below where it was before Britain went off the gold standard in 1931. If one takes the purchasing power of gold in 1930 as 100, the purchasing power today stands at 91. The history of gold prices shows a centuries-old pattern which, in his book published in 1977, Professor Roy Jastram called the Golden Constant. He established that the general level of prices had historically moved above and below the gold price, but had always been drawn back towards it.
The gold value of a sovereign now has much the same purchasing power as it would have had in 1972, 1874, 1857, 1821, 1794, 1776 or 1723, or, indeed, in 1649, the year Cromwell cut off the head of Charles I. In 1997 we can see gold once again performing its strangest trick of all, and acting as a long-term measure of value. It has behaved in this way for an amazingly long time. Although the two metals have since diverged because of changes in mining technologies, the ratio of the prices of gold and silver was the same in the first year of the reign of Queen Victoria as it had been in the last year of the reign of the Emperor Augustus.

Nobody can study the history of gold without becoming fascinated by these long-term price relationships. Gold is at present on the cheap side of its historic value in Britain; farmland in England has usually been worth between five and ten ounces of gold an acre, according to the quality of the land. At #170 an ounce, that would give a price of #850 to #1,700 an acre, which is at present on the low side. On the other hand, #20 an acre, which was then equivalent to five ounces of gold, was normal for farmland throughout the agricultural depression from the 1870s to
the 1940s.

When gold had its last great boom, it went to $800 an ounce. That was the result of a worldwide panic about inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s. Now all serious investors have given up on it. The goldbugs still have a sentimental nostalgia for the days when one could actually make money out of gold-related investments, but they have prophesied so many false dawns that their arguments no longer have any place in sober investment analysis. No investment fashion has been so thoroughly exploded as gold; most people think that there will no more be another gold boom than there will be another boom in tulip futures in The Netherlands.

One cannot be so sure about the future of this mysterious metal. Roy Jastram gives a table of the purchasing power of gold, starting from 1600. It has certainly outperformed paper currencies.

Year Purchasing Power of Gold
1600.............125
1650.............97
1700.............120
1750.............111
1800.............76
1850.............111
1900.............143
1950.............103

I suppose that one might have been pretty gloomy about the outlook for gold in 1800. William Pitt might fall; Napoleon might invade; Nelson might lose at Trafalgar; Wellington might lose at Waterloo; Rothschild and Barings might lose control of the gold market. Yet gold's purchasing power rose by 50 per cent in the next 50 years and doubled in the next century. From the present level of 91, the index could repeat that performance in the 21st century, or it could just remain its constant self, as it did in the 17th.

Even the stock market performance of gold investments does not all go one
way. I have recently had an intriguing letter from Andrew Lampert, well known in the gold world as a director of Midland Walwyn, a Toronto investment firm with the courage to have a gold bias. He sent me a chart of the share price of Homestake Mining, an American S. gold producer, measured against the Dow Jones index. Ten thousand dollars invested in Homestake in 1892 would now be worth a little over $1,000,000; $10,000 invested in the Dow would be worth a little less than $1,000,000. But the experience in between would have been very different. Homestake outperformed the index from 1892 to about 1910, underperformed from 1910 to 1929, outperformed spectacularly in the 1930s, and underperformed in the 1940s, 1950s, and early 1960s. The Dow Jones traded around the 1,000 level from 1966 to 1982 and Homestake appreciated by 466 per cent. In the past 15 years, the Dow Jones has gained a massive 645 per cent against Homestake moving up by just 8 per cent. Perhaps the pendulum will eventually swing again; pendulums often do.

Most people think of gold as a protection against inflation, and expect it to rise in inflationary periods, but fall with deflation. Roy Jastram examined the UK and American price record to 1976, and reached these rather unexpected conclusions:

1. Gold is a poor hedge against major inflations.

2. Gold appreciates in operational wealth in major deflations.

3. Gold does maintain its purchasing power over long periods of time.

The current purchasing power of gold in Britain is close to the historic lows of the Civil War, the collapse of the South Sea bubble, the American War of Independence, the Napoleonic wars, the First World War and the General Strike. Gold may not be cheap, but for the British it hardly looks expensive - not unless we are expecting a war, a crash or a general strike in the near future.

It looks very different in Asia. The South East Asian economies of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia have all devalued against the dollar in the past six months; so has South Korea; the big Japanese devaluation has continued. In terms of all of these currencies, gold ha been static or firm. It has not done as well as the dollar, but it has served its traditional function of acting as a stable reserve. It has also met its textbook desciption of being both a real asset, such as property, and a liquid one, such as cash.

At present, the dollar is king of the world currencies; most of the Asian
currencies have devalued against it and even the euro has been prospectively devalued against it, 18 months before it has even come into
existence. Sterling has also appreciated, and has been stronger than the
dollar itself. Yet some commentators fear that the Asian devaluations may be the first of a wave of competitive global devaluations, like those in the 1930s, which included Europe and America. In the 1930s almost every currency was devalued in terms of gold..

Several of the world's central banks have recently been selling gold, on the argument that the dollar offers both appreciation and an interest yield, while gold has depreciated and provided no income. So far they have been right, but what will they do if the dollar itself has to be devalued? Already, the United States has a trade deficit and is far from competitive in cost with Asia. At some point in the future, the dollar may be seen as unsustainably overvalued. Then presumably the dollar price of gold will start to rise - the 2,500-year history of gold as a store of value may be far from finished.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 13:21
vronsky U>(WHO CARES WHO HOLDS THE GOLD?!) ID#426220:
Leading US Economist sharply criticizes Greenspan’s policy regarding gold.

In an absolutely perfect world, no central bank would need to
hold any gold. David Ricardo, the great supply-side, classical
economist of the 19th century, wrote in his Principles of Political Economy in London of 1821, that When money is working at the peak of efficiency, the central bank need hold no gold.

Very few opponents of a gold standard know what it is or how it works or how many different ways there are to link paper money to gold.

If the Eurocrats understood that, they would go back to the
drawing boards and build a monetary system from that assumption. This would require them to first fix the Eurocurrency to something the markets would understand as being a reliable unit of account. What? The answer is the dollar, the world's key currency, except that the dollar still wobbles around relative to the gold price. The Euro would be possible, but only if the dollar is first fixed in value to gold. Then, the European nations in the Eurocurrency system would have a credible unit of account as their anchor.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/wanniski111897.html

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 13:16
nomercy U>(Greenspan on 'another imaginary' problem (Social Security)) ID#390214:
WASHINGTON - Changes shoring up the Social Security system

should be made sooner rather than later to avoid a truly wrenching

impact on older Americans, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan

Greenspan said Thursday.

We owe it to those who will retire after the turn of the century to be

given sufficient advance notice to make what alterations in retirement

planning may be required, he told the Senate Budget Committee's

Task Force on Social Security.

If we procrastinate too long, the adjustments could be truly

wrenching, he said. Our senior citizens, both current and future,

deserve better.

Greenspan, who chaired a 1983 commission during the Reagan

administration that led the last overhaul of the retirement program, said

the system's problems were significant but manageable.

Younger workers probably are paying enough into the system to

finance their future benefits, but current retirees and older workers have

not, he said. Thus, the system is expected to start paying out more than

it takes in by 2014.

The central bank chairman discussed the pros and cons of privatizing

the system, but said at a minimum other initiatives should be addressed,

including raising the retirement age.

As a result of the changes already in place, the age is scheduled to rise

from 65 to 67, but Greenspan said a further increase is becoming

increasingly pressing as Americans live longer and collect benefits

longer.

Such an initiative would become easier to implement as fewer and

fewer of our older citizens retire from physically arduous work, he

added.

Raising Social Security payroll taxes would have negative

consequences for growth, he said. But he said he favored shaving

benefit cost-of-living adjustments. Currently, benefits are adjusted

based on an inflation index that overmeasures inflation, he said.

Greenspan said privatizing the Social Security system in a way that

increases Americans' overall retirement savings was worthy of

intensive evaluation.

But he warned that it was an open but critical question as to how

financial markets would respond to a change of the magnitude

contemplated by immediate full privatization.

A thorough examination of the risks and benefits to the financial

markets would be wise, he said.

An alternate to what he called a big bang transition would be a

gradual transition, leaving current retirees and older workers in the old

government system and moving younger workers into a new, private

system, he said.

A Clinton administration commission issued a report early this year but

could not agree on a recommendation. A slim majority, however,

endorsed one or the other of two competing privatization plans.

The Senate task force has been charged with providing an agreed

upon set of facts on which to base future debate, said its chairman,

Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 13:02
General U>(to MachF15) ID#365216:
Mach,

I think you will find that United Services ( US ) Global Investors
World Gold Fund ( down now about 50% from its high a few years ago )
is a diversified and well-managed mutual fund. I have been in it
for years. Call 1-800-873-8637.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 13:00
Selby U>(Doubt It) ID#287207:
tolerant1: We aren't going to agree on this because I don't buy the idea the CB's exercise anywhere near the control over gold's price as you apparently do. Their stock pile--reportedly 1/3 of all the gold above ground--has been losing value since the early '80s and it is not bothering them a bit. They are selling the stuff all over the world like it was last year's calendar.

Gold makes a good thermometer of the state of the financial system but the CB's know you can't raise the temperature in the house by holding a match under the thermometer. Gold is going down for the same reason sunblock is going down in Toronto--nobody wants the stuff right now. When the economy of the US and Europe get as bad as the prevailing view here would have them --then gold will go up--maybe. Clinton's problems, US absolute debt figures, Thailand currency problems, el nino, Iraq, presence or absence of gold in Fort Knox, imaginary rises in inflation--all have no effect compared to the steamroller of the US economy which maybe a lot easier to see outside the US than from inside.
Clinton looks like an average US President with above average press coverage. If the finacial situation was bad as seen by some here nobody would care about Clinton's history. All looks fine in there from out here. Why buy gold when all looks so good. I know this view is believed to be all wrong here but I don't believe there are any major problems at the moment and neither does the price of gold. Watch for the CB's to be accused of buying gold once the finacial world is in trouble.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 12:58
Goldilocks and the three BEARS U>(Saddam Hussein - What a sneaky snake !) ID#430219:
The following is a quote from the newsletter INSIDE TRACK dated 11/03/97:

'A subscriber also alerted me to one other possible explanation regarding crude oil. It is based on a theory by another editor -- whose name I can not locate -- that Saddam Hessein is using the futures markets to finance the rebuilding of his infrastructure and armed forces. He allows the markets to sell off ( after shorting them through Swiss bank accounts ) only to balk at -- or threaten -- inspectors after he has reversed long. After running up the price by $2-3.00 per barrel, he repeats the process over and over again. At first, this sounded like a stretch. Now, I have to wonder.'

This was printed 11/03/97, seems to me that's just what happened, any comments

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 12:45
EB U>(where am i? ) ID#22956:
sorry...you are all here...I am NOT.

having puter problems...damn!

away...to toss it out the window

Éßanginghishead

go gold and lakers...oh my

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 12:35
Uris U>(Password test) ID#235389:
Password test

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 12:34
EB U>(................¿hello?..................¿anyone home?...............) ID#22956:
Poorboys - Be careful what you ask for...

All - These currencies are like yo-yo's today....what is going on Oh, it looks like a market crash.......UP...........hmmmmmm......Gold?.....how will you act We are waiting.......tick-tock, tick-tock.....

away...to wonder what happened to all the posters

Éßewildered

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 12:29
tolerant1 U>(Selby) ID#31868:
The problem with that is that THEY are causing the price to drop. So why would they continue to make announcements to watch the price drop and then sell into a depressed market.

Mines are closing left and right. Demand is surging as the price drops, which in turn takes more supply off the market.

Are the CBs doing this to be nice or are they stupid.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 12:24
Bart Kitner (Kitco) U>(passwords) ID#260223:
New passwords are going to be handed out to everyone who has registered so far. Coming to an emailbox near you....stay tuned.

To Front: Welcome back!

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 12:22
Selby U>(Cheaper price --more sales) ID#287207:
tolerant1: Why do they sell cheaper into a market that grows with each price reduction? Because it will be lower tomorrow is my guess.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 12:17
tolerant1 U>(WSF) ID#31868:
Yes I get SI, but they have not run articles to this effect to my knowledge. Their belief is that deflation is headed our way and that is why they have some of their Wealth Builder portfolio weighted with some mining stocks.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 12:14
tolerant1 U>(RayZer) ID#31868:
I concur, the numbers are all over the place. Mr. Veneroso appears to be honest and has earned respect in his field. Given that gold is clearly out of favor it is easy to cast the so what attitude towards this report.

My point here is not to attack your point of view in your illustration of the markets and the rose colored glasses.

I expect to see sparks in many different areas and in the not too distant future. The Veneroso report is just one item in many from my point of view.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 12:13
WSF U>(To Tolerant1) ID#188244:
Do you get Stategic Investment? If so, have they said anything about gold sales being used to protect fiat currencies, or anything to that effect?

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 12:12
Steve - Perth U>(Even Iraq has become boring!) ID#284177:
http://204.202.137.112/sections/world/iraq1105/
I was looking forward to a good bombing or two. Maybe I will
just have to wait a little bit longer....

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 12:09
MachF15 U>(Un-hedged Mutual Funds) ID#275253:
Does anyone know a few good Gold Mining Mutual Funds that only invest in non-hedging companies?

MachF-15

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 12:06
Poorboys U>() ID#224149:
RJ Post Nov19 07:23 .We certainly are on the same wavelength!!!.The bottom is close but no CONFIRMED bottom for Gold.Not a lot to say as so many posters have covered all the angles with intelligent conversation for a nice change without all the back-stroking .Happy Trails to all.P.S.I hope we can have some fighting words occasionally as the last few days of posts seem to be on the boring side.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 12:05
tolerant1 U>(Selby) ID#31868:
Clearly whatever is above ground which is for sale is dwindling. Therefore we come down to the that which stipulates the CBs will sell.

Why. The only reason would be to supress gold as money. If they are as astute at business as everyone claims, why do they continue to sell at further depressed prices.

Why do they sell cheaper into a market that grows with each price reduction?



Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 12:04
Steve - Perth U>(Good share buys) ID#284177:
Fund Managers take a quiet look at Australian Resource Shares
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971121/business/business8.html
( News item only - not a recommendation )

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 12:01
Oracle Master U>(InterestRatesIncreaseIn JAPAN) ID#232387:
Any thoughts on why Japan's Bond Market got hit last night? Interest rates were up 7 basis points before recovering
somewhat to only up 3 basis points.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 11:58
RayZer U>(reports good as gold) ID#408147:
tolerant1: the trouble with reports are that they are so rarely accurate or credible. While interesting to read at times, most reprots are to narrow in scope/viewpoint that they gain no respect from those with a broader sense of reality. While it can be proven that there are troubles in the East, supply/demand issues in the metals, etc. are these really anything earthshaking to world financal markets in general? It appears that the 'cover-up' may be more of a 'so-what'...Other than the usual cast of fear-mongers, the general financial world still sees through rose-colored glasses ( for now ) .

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 11:54
Selby U>(Nuts) ID#287207:
Ain't nobody got my ID#.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 11:48
Good ol' boy U>(Bart - that psychopath did it again, and now he's going after Selby's password) ID#434108:
Dagnabit

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 11:47
Steve - Perth U>(Base Metals suffer as Asia slowdown stays) ID#284177:
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971121/market/markets5.html

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 11:43
Steve - Perth U>(Aussie Gold Mine Closure?) ID#284177:
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971121/invest/invest4.html
A news item of interest for the gold bugs.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 11:40
Selby U>(Gold Demand) ID#287207:
tolerant1: checked the World Gold Council web site and looks like demand
means amount sold. So as the price has been going down the sales are up. This seems normal to me--costs less-- buy more--same $.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 11:37
refer U>(First Dynasty Mines of Toronto) ID#41229:
Does anybody have any information of First Dynasty mines.
Ticker sysmbol FDM.TO

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 11:33
Steve - Perth U>(Japan's Banks starting to hit the fan) ID#284177:
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971121/world/world2.html
To quote the Fund Manager at this morning's Mercury Asset Management's
Breakfast in Perth, this is Japan's S&L crisis on the way. BTW, Mercury
has just been taken over by Merrill Lynch.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 11:23
Steve - Perth U>(Canberra to back S. Korean Bail Out) ID#284177:
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971121/news/news1.html
They call this insurance, apparently.
I call it dollars down the dunny. ( water closet )

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 11:19
tolerant1 U>(RayZer) ID#31868:
I think that if the Veneroso report is proven accurate there will be major sparks flying. In addition the United States is acting as if Asia is not falling apart.

Several items no longer loom on the horizon, they are here.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 11:19
Steve - Perth U>(Dangerous Derivatives) ID#284177:
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971120/feature/feature1.html

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 11:09
RayZer U>(hindsight forecast) ID#408147:
OK...we've just about got Gold under $300...
A year from now, what will they be saying about that event:

A. Millions missed the opportunity of a lifetime last November when Gold dipped below $300. Today ( 1998 ) is has jumped to $450 ( or more )

B. Thousands of investors who jumped into gold when it dipped below $300 in 1997 were decimated when their gold holdings dropped another 20% ( or more ) this year.

C. Gold investors continue to lag the equity markets. Even with gold dipping below $300 in 1997, gold investors earned less than money markets during 1998.

...sounds like most of you here are hoping for the A. scenario -- personally, I see C. as the most likely, though there will be short term plays that profits can be made upon. Any other scenarios seen?

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 11:05
tolerant1 U>(Selby) ID#31868:
If you go to World Gold Council web site they give a breakdown of what they can and cannot measure.

Basically they are saying that 3rd quarter demand is up.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 11:05
sharefin U>(MKAU) ID#284255:
MK Gold - MKAU
Big volumes something happening.
Who are they?

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 11:00
Oracle Master U>(InterestRatesIncreaseIn JAPAN) ID#232387:
Any thoughts on why Japan's Bond Market got hit last night? Interest rates were up 7 basis points before recovering somewhat to only up 3 basis points.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 10:57
WSF U>(to Carl) ID#188244:
Might not the international financial community be relieved that Clinton has no backing by Congress? I often wonder how the rest of the world views Clinton. My Dutch father-in-law quite likes him, but I have maintained that this was an exception and the world viewed him as dangerous, except for his ChiCom buddies.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 10:54
BillD U>(@ XAU) ID#258427:
XAU just went positive ... BTW ... when is the silver squeeze to start?

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 10:54
Selby U>(Gold demand) ID#287207:
Intolerant1: Did the report of the 6% increase in demand for gold note how demand was measured?

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 10:36
JTF U>(Dos,SP-500) ID#57232:
Sharefin: I have the Dow up 40, and SP-500 up 8. These are Telescan delayed quotes. Pretty stong upturn for this early in the morning. I wonder -- will they droop later?

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 10:35
Carl U>(Weak US leadership) ID#333131:
I just want to reiterate that the US administration was weakened by the fast track loss, UN dues loss, and failure to fund $3B to IMF recently. The unfolding events over Iraq show others moving into a dangerous vacuum polically. As the international finacial community starts to get a whiff of how weak this presidency is with respect to congressional backing for its actions, it will scare the holy hell out of them. I take no delight from this coming chaos, but gold will be a big bennificiary of it.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 10:32
Mooney* U>(Foresight and Hindsight) ID#348169:
Hindsight is always twenty-twenty. --- Billy Wilder
Foresight - 20%?

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 10:22
Front U>(Test) ID#338452:
Thanks Bart ...

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 10:19
Carl U>(S Korea asks for $10B from US Treasury and FRB) ID#333131:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971120/s_korea_asks_u_s_off_1.html

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 10:13
Carl U>(Brazil slashes interest rates from 43% to 40% in anticipation of fiscal reform) ID#333131:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971120/brazil_economy_1.html

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 10:12
vronsky U>(Rothschilds, Soros & RJ CANNOT BE WRONG) ID#426220:
We have all recently learned the Rothschilds & Soros have been covertly buying up silver properties via a company going public very soon. And today our own RJ reiterates his bullish outlook for the ‘Poor Man’s Gold’ -- SILVER. However, we must should due reverence to Claude Cormier, who first shared his considerable insights with us about silver in his mid-year “Goldbug’s Weekly Comment.”

In Cormier’s report “Silver stocks, there ain't too many!” -posted at GOLD-EAGLE, he recommended six silver stocks with outstanding potential - albeit within a precious metals bear market. Let’s capsulate here how these stocks have performed since their mid-year lows:

Pan American Silver ( PAA ) ........UP 53%
Silver Standard ( SSO ) ...............UP 57%
International Avino ( ASM ) ........UP 50%
First Silver Reserve ( FSR ) ..........UP 86%
United Keno Hills ( UKH ) ..........UP 11%
Clifton Mining ( CFB ) ................Down 4%

That’s an average 42% Silver portfolio gain during the last five months - while gold have been miserably dribbling downwards!!

KUDOS & ACCOLADES for an Analyst Par Excellence: Claude Cormier

Please be aware that if you CLICK on the silver stock symbol in his report “Silver stocks, there ain't too many!” - the curent daily price chart pops up.

You may read his entire mid-year SILVER FORECAST at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/goldbug613.html


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 10:07
Allen(USA) U>(401k & 403b accounts) ID#246224:
Since these accounts are entirely outside of government stewardship I really doubt they could be touched by our government. Any time you have money in a government pension system it is completely at their mercy, but will it matter? Who has a 401b or 403k which can be placed in cash in a safety deposit box? Answer: no one. Its either in money market, insurance annuities, bonds or equities ( well there is gold but virtually no one knows about that ) . Its all 'in system'. If and when the 'system' crumps then it won't matter, it will simply disappear. Oh, yeah, you could have a piece of paper that SAYS you have a certain amount in the system. It will be meaningless. You will never be allowed to take it out.

At our organization they have had some booths set up to sign people up for 40x accounts. I heard one guy saying to a lady 'with this plan you can decide when you want to retire .. your savings is ...'. This guy was calling it 'savings' when it is an investment with risk. Money in hand is savings. A savings account is savings. A CD is savings. These all garrantee your money back ( albeit with a low return and the possibility of inflation eating you alive over the long term ) . A bond which can fluctuate in value is not savings and neither is anything else that you might not receive what you put into it. Sorry about the tirade on this but it just burns me up.


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 10:03
Carl U>(SRD exchange rates adjusted) ID#333131:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971119/u_s_sdr_rate_moved_t_1.html

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 09:53
Allen(USA) U>(@JTF) ID#246224:
Yes, yes. These monies are already invested somewhere. Where ever they are not invested in the banking system they will be sold and the proceeds used to buy up the bank stocks. BUT WHO WILL BUY BACK FROM THEM? Some future fool greater than the politicians? This is the last stop on this train before crash time. Drain them accounts, baby. We've got a date with destiny!

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 09:53
sharefin U>(Dow 10000 and beyond) ID#284255:
JTF
Have a look at the dow - 1 min chart on quote.com.
Is that spike for real?

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 09:50
Allen(USA) U>(@tgl) ID#246224:
You are no doubt one who understnads that gold is different than other commodities in several respects: 1 ) it is not consumed nearly to the degree other commodities are, 2 ) the amount being extracted from the ground is no where near the quantity to meet demand and has not met demand for 8 to 10 years now, 3 ) Central Banks are the primary institutional holders and use it as a reserve currency, 4 ) it, along with silver, are considered 'money' by a vast majority of the world's people including many in the middle east, asian subcontinent and asia proper. These and other characteristics of gold and silver make them uniquely NOT simply commodities. There are many vested interests who know the role of gold in relation to fiat money, finance and economies. They are sucking gold up at this price and will drain the system dry.

Mining, extraction and refining technologies haven't changed much. The 'new' technologies are refinements of old technologies not some radically different approach which drasticly lowers the cost of production. Mine closures are no joke.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 09:50
sharefin U>(Dow 10000 and beyond) ID#284255:


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 09:44
geoffs U>() ID#432157:
testing new password.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 09:21
tgl U>(tolerantl) ID#371471:
Tolerant, thanks for the notes. I've read you stuff as a lurker
for quite some while. 'Tis always insightful and useful. Keep it
up.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 09:18
JTF U>(Where is Nick(@Aussie)?) ID#57232:
All: Nick ( @Aussie ) has had a server malfunction of some kind -- not his computer. I gave him last nights summary by e-mail. I had expected he would be up by now.

By the way, where is Donald?


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 09:14
Goldbug23 U>(@Ingot) ID#432148:
elf: Appreciate the article from the WSJ on gold. You notice they buried the fact that in the third quarter actual demand for gold was up 6%. Was this in oz or $? Would make a difference in the comparison also. Count on the media to bad mouth the yellow. Objective news reporting is gone in much business reporting as well as almost totally gone in political reporting. Lib reporters have even taken over the biz pages, can't get jobs in the political area where they would rather be of course. Am I a bit cynical? You bet.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 09:09
Eldorado U>(@the scene) ID#213265:
Looking for the Dec contract in gold to continue on its way to near 290. Expecting the move to occur today/tomorrow. There's a good chance that the move will also drag silver down to the 4.9 area. Happy hunting.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 09:08
JTF U>(password testing) ID#57232:
I'm the real me at work!

Allen ( USA ) , John K: Your point about the Japanese postal savings to bail out the Japanese banks -- I raised another concern last night -- but had password problems -- so my post was probably missed. My concern is how the money has been invested.

Bank stocks, real estate, cash, other equities? Treasuries? Is it really 2.8 trillion US$ or after conversion to cash is it alot less?

We don't have to worry about our US government doing that with our Social Security, because they've done it already!

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 09:07
sharefin U>(EBism's) ID#284255:
You have found your true vocation.
Poking fun and shorting gold.
Wish LGB was right - for my pocket.
( :o}}}}}}}

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 09:06
Paul U>(post.) ID#22785:
Test post.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 08:58
tolerant1 U>(tgl) ID#31868:
What do you consider the gold market. So far the general media has not picked up on either the Veneroso report and it's ramifications nor the dealings at Comex. In addition it would seem to me that the CB's will never get clanked for 8000 tons of gold. Never happen in my opinion.

But we are clearly of two opposed opinions. Time will no doubt tell as you stipulate.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 08:58
sharefin U>(back on line) ID#284255:
Danger of depression haunts Asian market watchers
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971120/asia_crisis_1.html

Asia crisis deepens as Korea staves off IMF bailou
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971120/markets_asia_1.html

Brazil shrs seen rallying on rate cut, reform vote
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971120/brazil_shrs_seen_ral_1.html

Merrill Lynch launches put warrants on Nikkei 225
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971120/merrill_lynch_launch_1.html

FOCUS-Skorea seeks to stave off IMF option
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971120/korea_1stld_picture_1.html

FOCUS-Seoul markets fall as steps fail to turn tid
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971120/korea_markets_1stld_1.html

FOCUS-Euro shares cheer Wall St/Tokyo,yen revives
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971120/markets_europe_1.html


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 08:52
tolerant1 U>(Mo money, Mo money, Mo money.) ID#31868:
Indian shares plunge over currency fears, political uncertainty
Copyright © 1997 Nando.net
Copyright © 1997 Agence France-Presse

BOMBAY ( November 19, 1997 09:41 a.m. EST http://www.nando.net ) - Share prices plunged on the Bombay Stock Exchange Wednesday on large-scale panic selling over currency fears and a deepening political crisis at New Delhi but recovered at close of trade.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 08:46
tolerant1 U>(Poor Asians ?) ID#31868:
Rare colored diamonds sold in Geneva
Copyright © 1997 Nando.net
Copyright © 1997 Reuters

GENEVA ( November 20, 1997 00:41 a.m. EST http://www.nando.net ) - Rare colored diamonds netted strong prices at a Geneva jewelry auction. Asians were well represented among the buyers of top lots despite the financial crisis in the region, Sotheby's said early on Thursday.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 08:41
tgl U>(re: Veneroso's Report) ID#371471:
The gold market seems to have accepted Mr. Veneroso's reprot on gold
loans rather well actually. Taking a look at the gold holdings of the
G-7, using the IMF's figures as of the end of 1996, I note that there
are 19.5 tonnes of gold available, and if we toss in the next five nations we can find another 8.0 tonnes.. and that doesn't even
count the small nations who all seem to hold some gold reserves, all
be they small. Mr. Veneroso is a very wise man, but he has been
making this argument for years, and gold prices keep falling. Don't
fight the tape; 'tis bigger than all of us. When it turns, it will
turn, and it won't turn a moment before then.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 08:40
tolerant1 U>(More on gold) ID#31868:
Gold slacker despite WGC data, silver spurs ahead
Copyright © 1997 Nando.net
Copyright © 1997 Reuters

LONDON ( November 19, 1997 11:35 a.m. EST http://www.nando.net ) - Record third-quarter gold demand did little to spur the sulking yellow metal on Wednesday, which softened from a brief rally after the figures while silver spurred ahead.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 08:39
Mike Stewart U>(Long Term Charts) ID#270253:
I buy stocks when they are beat up and hurting. That goes for Golds, Techs, Steel, Retail etc. I use Worden Bros. TC2000 charts.

Worden Brothers have a Time-segmented Volume calculation which is a proprietary cousin to On balance Volume. It fluctuates like an oscillator.

Using monthly charts and a 21 month Time Segmented Volume calculation, I look for issues that are 100% pinned overbought or oversold. This is a very rare condition.

Here are some examples for your interest ( data goes back 6-12 yrs ) :

Gold Oversold Now

Silver Overbought Oct 94

Investment Brokers Overbought Sep 97

Semiconducors Overbought Aug 95

TVX Gold Oversold Now

Korea Fund Oversold Now

Dow Overbought Aug 97

Dreifontein Overbought Jan 94 Oct 94 Oversold Aug 86

Kloof Overbought Oct 94 Oversold Now

Newmont Overbought Oct 87

Barrick Overbought Oct 87

XAU Overbought Jan 94 Oversold Close but no cigar right now

Worden Gold Index Overbought Jan 94 Oct 94 Oversold Very close

Homestake Overbought Jan 94

Placer Dome Overbought Jan 94

Free State Overbought Oct 94 Oversold July 97 ( $4.625 )


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 08:35
Rob U>(test) ID#408244:
test

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 08:35
elf U>(tgl: gold demand falling in Asia) ID#33180:
From today's Wall Street Journal:

Asian Market Turmoil Dims

Gold Luster; Price Cuts Seen

By AARON LUCCHETTI

Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

The widespread financial and economic problems in Asia have sharply

diminished demand for gold there, threatening further price erosion for the

metal, analysts say.

Despite increasing world-wide demand for gold, growth was muted in the third

quarter by lackluster performances in key jewelry-consuming countries like

Malaysia and Thailand. Demand for the commodity plummeted 52.8% in

Southeast Asia during the third quarter compared with the same quarter last

year, said the World Gold Council, an industry marketing organization based

in Geneva, Switzerland.

The Asian crisis that started with the devaluation of the Thai baht on July 2,

triggered widespread selling of jewelry, said Richard Scott-Ram, an

economic adviser to the Gold Council. Instead of turning to gold as an

alternative asset or investment, many hoarders sold their gold out of

economic distress, he said. By the end of the year, Southeast Asian

demand for the metal could be off by 50-100 metric tons from the 455.1

metric tons level at the end of 1996, said Timothy Porter, an analyst for Refco

Inc. in New York.

That's more bad news for gold bugs, who watched the price of the yellow

metal fall to $300 last week, a 28% cratering from the February 1996 peak.

Intense speculative fervor touched off by fears of central-bank gold sales has

hurt gold prices and mining stocks for months. Since approximately one-third

of the world's above-ground gold sits in central-bank vaults, the fear has hurt

market sentiment, Mr. Scott-Ram says.

In trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold

rallied early, then failed to follow through as producers stepped up sales

programs. December futures on the metal fell $2.60 to $305 a troy ounce.

To be sure, the falling demand in Asia has been met with increasing demand

for the metal in India, Saudi Arabia and the U.S., all top consumers of gold.

World-wide, gold demand increased 6% during the third quarter as the falling

price and stronger dollar made buying the metal a cheaper proposition for

some.

But in Asia, the decline in gold demand may not be finished, warns William

O'Neill, chief futures strategist at Merrill Lynch. While the World Gold

Council's figures include international surveys through September, the

financial turmoil and global stock volatility of October and early November

have yet to be taken into account. The worst of the Asian gold selling may

not be apparent yet, said Mr. O'Neill.

An even more bearish signal, says Mr. O'Neill, is the slackening in gold

during a period of increased uncertainty in stocks and financial assets.

We've had the Asian crisis and the Iraqi situation and gold has been going

down. Even as a long-running bear, I thought something of this magnitude

would be supportive of the gold market. The next support level for the metal

could likely come near the 12-year low of around $280 a troy ounce. At that

point, mine closures could keep about 400 tons of gold in the ground, Mr.

O'Neill notes.

While gold has fallen, testing the $300 an ounce milestone recently, silver

futures have continued to rally. December silver gained 11.8 cents on the

Comex to $5.218 a troy ounce. Tight stockpiles and a lack of central-bank

selling pressure explains some of the differences in the fates of the precious

metals, says David Rinehimer, head of futures research for Smith Barney Inc.

in New York. As of Wednesday, silver cost more when compared with gold

than at any other time since 1987, he said.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 08:34
BillD U>(test) ID#258427:
test

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 08:32
tolerant1 U>(More new good news?) ID#31868:
Drade deficit for Sept- $11.1 billion in USA



Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 08:21
tolerant1 U>(tgl) ID#31868:
Your example will be detroyed in the near future when the massive official and private gold loans come to a head. This 8000 tonnes is nothing to shrug one's shoulders at. The report by Mr. Veneroso will have a disturbing effect to say the least.

I am not a goldbug nor an ostrich. But even if I were an ostrich I would see things for what they are as it is another myth that they hide their heads in the sand.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 08:16
Nick@C U>(CNN update on metals) ID#393224:
http://cnnfn.com/markets/bridge/2200.1.html

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 08:10
tgl U>(toleranl: re: gold demand up... prices down) ID#371471:
It is interesting how you gold bugs keep talking about the demand for
gold rising and wonder how gold can keep goign down. You blame it
upon the cb's and other entities, always looking for some conspiracy
to account for the decline. Other commodities can fall even as demand
rises. After all, cotton usage is up each and every year, and yet
bear markets in cotton occur. Wheat demand rises generally each year,
and yet the wheat farm in Kansas knows that wheat can fall... and does. Why not gold?

Perhaps gold's continued decline is truly because supplies above ground
remain intact and new mining keeps coming on stream using newer
techniques that keep driving the all in costs lower. Maybe it is just
that simple... and then again, maybe fightingn the tape seems
more heroic than going with the trend.

Perh

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 08:09
Shek U>(Y2K) ID#287279:
We are heading for an international collapse.
A November 19th Reuters story quotes a Federal Reserve official in regard to noncompliant foreign banks. The implications of what he said are stupendous. He says that the FED may suspend all transactions with noncompliant foreign banks in 2000. This is tantamount to shutting down the international banking system.

MIAMI--The Fed's central bankers fear regional economic issues may distract European and Asian banks from dealing with a millennium time bomb threatening the world banking system, a Federal Reserve official said yesterday. It's number one on my agenda every day, William Ryback,
associate director for banking supervision at the Fed, said at a Latin
American bankers conference. We at the Fed are terribly worried.
... Ryback told reporters that European bankers were working hard on
adapting their information equipment for the arrival of a common
European currency and had not fully focused on the millennium bug.
Asian bankers, he said, were facing economic turmoil and were
unlikely to devote much time to a computer problem, regardless of its
importance. . . .
Ryback gave no details but told reporters later that the Fed might bar
transactions between U.S. institutions and banks outside the United
States if they had not overhauled their computers.

http://www.news.com/News/Item/0,4,16581,00.html


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 08:08
Speed U>(Japanese Postal Savings) ID#286199:
The U.S. recently used federal workers retirement funds to pay bills during a pseudo shutdown. Any government will use any means necessary to maintain the status quo. They will use inflation, slow increases in marginal tax rates or more drastic measures including borrowing or confiscating the savings of workers. The Japanese are providing yet another example of this truth. There are huge reserves in 401ks and IRAs and pension plans in the U.S. Consider these the reserves of last resort. Do not doubt that they will be expended to save the system.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 08:06
vronsky U>(BOJ TO THE RESCUE OF NIKKEI (a.k.a. The Yo-Yo Index)) ID#427357:
With Blitzkrieg effectiveness the Nikkei soared 1200 points last Monday to 16283 -- a gain of nearly 8%. Then another sizable gain the next day... only to be followed by the WORST one day loss in 1997... then up again!

REPORT FROM TOKYO: “Monday's rally reflected a perception among investors that authorities were taking active steps to help the ailing financial sector following news that Hokkaido Takushoku Bank Ltd's business will be taken over by another regional bank.”

The above will eventually prove INDEED to be a mammoth understatement... “that authorities were taking active steps to help the ailing financial sector...” IMO there is only one force which possesses the financial clout and MOTIVATION to temporarily detour the downward spiral of Japanese stock prices: THE BANK OF JAPAN ( BOJ ) - Central Bank of Japan!

Consider the scenario. Japan’s corporate world riddled with scandal... top executives jailed. The economy in a worsening recession. Interest rates nearly abolished in futile attempt to stimulate economic activity. Japanese Banking system relentlessly crumbling due to domestic unperforming loans, estimated by Nippon experts to be between US$400-US$800 BILLION. Adding to the banking systems burden are massive bank failures in most Tiger nations, which are the Nippon’s largest debtors. Massive withdrawals of funds from Japanese insurance companies, due to fear they will fail. In light of all these negative factors the Japanese saver has lost all confidence in their financial sector. ALL THE ABOVE IS KNOWN TO EVERYONE... native and foreigner. SO, WHERE DID ALL THE MONEY COME FROM TO CAUSE AN 8% RISE IN THE NIKKEI IN ONE SINGLE DAY?

It is not foreign money!
It is not Japanese savers money!
It can ONLY be the BOJ, which has motive and means!

Whereas the BOJ will momentarily deter the slide in Nikkei, it will not resolve the underlying problems plaguing Japan and the rest of Asia. It is a ruse to confuse.

To appreciate the grim financial and economic conditions - becoming worse daily - one must examine the problems. This weekend an outstanding article was posted at GOLD-EAGLE, which describes in minute detail what is happening in Asia.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn111597.html

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 07:49
tolerant1 U>(tortfeasor) ID#31868:
Gold is being supressed and in fact held down. Demand is up worldwide yet there are mine closings. If all the banks put their gold up it would be inhaled by the markets. They can't make gold worthless by selling. The lower the price the more people that can afford it.

Governments and bankers worldwide are playing a deadly game. The politician eats well no matter what happens. They eat even better today. They talk of such lofty ideas and goals. Yet millions get hammered by the real world.

I am really starting to think that this time around the United States Government will be drastically altered and will look nothing like it's current form in the future.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 07:48
Nick@C U>(Aussie Gold Stock Index(From The Privateer)) ID#393224:
Not a pretty sight. Must be about time for a rebound.

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-ind.html

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 07:47
vronsky U>(THE DINES LETTER ) ID#427357:
LATEST ON CURRENCIES - “Won Loss Bad” - 10% Loss in One DAy!

The South Korean currency, the won, has fallen sharply as the long-awaited economic stabilisation package failed to restore investors' confidence in the country's economy.

The currency lost 10% of its value against the dollar a day after the government announced the package of measures aimed at boosting financial markets.

The record fall occurred within minutes of the markets opening.

It has stoked fears that South Korea could be heading for a financial crisis that would dwarf the turmoil in the South East Asian markets.

Internationally acclaimed market analyst, James Dines, shares his insights and foresights with us about current currency crisis.

Asia is awash in hammered & cascading currencies. The deluge of devaluations in South East Asia is spilling over into other countries on the opposite side of the globe -- and will wreak havoc in world stock markets. The Currency Contagion continues unabated...
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines1110.html


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 07:40
tolerant1 U>(tgl) ID#31868:
If the bank or any other entity is broke, banckrupt it. Kill it and make a public spectacle of it. The savings should never be attacked, that is clearly not the culprit.

We constantly bait and switch in the world we live in.



Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 07:38
Tortfeasor U>() ID#36965:
Regarding the continuing lethergy in gold I am left with the conclusion that there is selling going on by secret parties on a grand scale. It doesn't appear to be the Swiss though at this point. With the stock markets gyrating from day to day, trouble brewing in the Middle East and general nervousness I would think that under normal conditions gold would at least show a little strength. I think I'll keep buying thos Maple Leaves and hope for the best.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 07:35
tgl U>(Japanese Postal Savings) ID#371471:
The notion that Japan's banking system shoudl be left to drift into
insolvency is madness really. I understand that using public funds
to bail the banks out seems noxious, but the problems are severe
enough that if they are not bailed out, Japan's ability to rise from
the recession it is clearly now it would be negligable at best... quite
probably impossible at worst. The real problem in Japan is that the MOF
remains too firmly in control of the situation, and these old line
reactionaries are fighting with tools useable in the 19th century
or under Japan's old mercantilist past, but not usable in today's more
global circumstances. Let us not be too harsh in judging Japan now
for considering the use of public funds, for what else is there? It
has truly come to this.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 07:23
tolerant1 U>(Goldbug23) ID#31868:
No, we have not entered a new era. The lies in the gold markets, the trashing of currencies around the world all point to major economic upheavel.

The politicians eat like Kings and Queens and the the people get slaughtered.



Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 07:23
Crystal Ball U>(@Bart: Hepcat's post of 11/19/97, 22:49 using my moniker) ID#287367:
Bart: Would you please send me a new password? That psychopath Hepcat ( ID#340374 ) posted as Crystal Ball on 11/19/97 at 22:49. I will e-mail you to discuss further. Thanks.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 07:15
Goldbug23 U>(@Armageddon) ID#432148:
Malaysia off over 10% and Indonesia off almost 5% last night. The beat goes on. How long can this last? Banks in Japan being saved by the BOJ. And yet gold acts like No Problem. What is going on? I have been in this game a long time and it's all new to me. Have the rules changed? Are we really in a new era

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 07:08
Allen(USA) U>(Travesty @ Japanese Postal Savings) ID#255190:

This is like robbing the blind, folks. It is truly a sign of how bad things are in Japan. This savings program is the last chunk of change that the Japanese people have and it will be used to save the banking system. This is robbery pure and simple. Consider if Social Security was used to bail out the S&L's. Or the use of Federal Workers Retirement funds.

Above all the stewardship of these kinds of fund is of the highest public responsibility. Only the most judicious and prudent placemnt of this money is warranted. No commercial bank or banking system which has been so idiotic in its practices deserves to survive. It would be better to declare them all insolvant and to rebuild a sold system from scratch based on those funds than to throw that money away in an effort to save that putrid mess ( which it will never do ) .

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 06:30
Allen(USA) U>(test) ID#255190:

test

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 06:24
Mike Stewart U>(Investors Intelligence Gold Info) ID#270253:
Investors Intelligence report that Insiders have been buying gold shares at a healthy pace all year. The leader has been Hecla Mining.
These are good indicators, long term with no real specific timing element.

II also breaks down industry group by analysing all stocks within the group using point and figure charts. They determine the percentage which are bullish in their formation. This is key information as a momentum indicator. Golds are obviously the weakest with a double bottom just below 15%. Major bottoms occur when this is below 20% and turn up over 30%. We did have a fakeout in October to 31.4%. Multiple bottoms have occurred in the past at major lows. They have data on this going back 12 years. Long term bullish here. No specific timing though.

II is looking for selling climaxes in gold shares to indicate a bottom. This is when an issue hits a new 52wk low, and rallies to close up for the week. Keep an eye out for this condition on several stocks.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 05:51
golddkm U>(Silver during deflation) ID#432148:
Jack, I think silver will behave well THIS time during a
deflation. 1. As a haven, it is relatively and absolutely
low relative to gold and platinum. and 2. Central banks do not
have the reserves of silver that they have of gold to sell off
to protect their currencies. I have looked at the field and
the best acting stock I can find is Pan American Silver, but
but I like Industrias Penoles also; and of the traditional, I
would favor Hecla as coming around sometime soon.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 04:17
Jack U>(Japan) ID#252127:

When the Japanese currency was very strong just a few years ago - its financial house was not in order. Today with the same situation realative to its financial situation, the Japanese currency is still high when compared with past Yen/$ rates. Every news report makes her out as a basket case, so its possible that the whole Japanese thing is another setup.
On the other hand Japan ( and its investors ) as worlds biggest lender, have made some bad deals, both home and abroad. Could it be that their US Treasury holdings are another bad deal.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 03:55
Jack U>(Privateinvestor) ID#252127:

If the layoffs continue or accelerate from the current pace; perhaps a worldwide deflation will take hold. Under those conditions I cannot see American's continuing to buy foreing products - because of lack of income
WW, the group progressive constantly chirps about how many of our qualified people are toiling for low wages, thus ordinary living cost have to take most of their paychecks. When this situation intensifies, deflation is inevitable.
How we will sevice our debt is hard to imagine.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 03:40
PrivateInvestor U>(not to mention mines) ID#225283:

Mining operations are going to be forced into Bk left and right.....Visa recently stated that they expect BK filings to increase by 20% in 1998.


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 03:34
PrivateInvestor U>(Jack and Hedgehog) ID#225283:

What do you think of the recent rash of layoffs and outright closings of certain US operations...Kodak, Gm, Monkey Wards, etc.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 03:28
PrivateInvestor U>(test) ID#225283:

test

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 03:26
PrivateInvestor U>(Bank Holidays) ID#225283:

And I do not mean Xmas.....we should be seeing more runs on the banks as people begin to stop and smell the sewage.

Has anyone been able to find any $20 gold pieces lately...I hear they cannot be found at any price?

The party has just begun In Japan BOJ propped up the market to buy time so they could come up with a bail out scheme. You can bet bonds will be offed to paper over the additional $100 billion they are going to come up short on the first phase of the bad loan bailout.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 03:21
Hedgehog U>(staged event?) ID#39845:
You are right. But things happening fast. Media pushing Hashimoto
Chinese Spy, sexual relations line now.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 03:12
Jack U>(The Japanese are Shrewed ) ID#252127:

Japan's been in a deflation condition for years, they see this an becoming at least an SEA phenomina if not worldwide problem.
Thus they weaken the yen to stay competive in their neck of the woods, buy deflated natural resources and export the finish products to North Aamerica and Europe.
Being shrewed Japan is probably buying gold as a precautionary measure. IMHO, the gold trans-shipped through Korea could be finding a home in JAPAN.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 03:10
PrivateInvestor U>(hedgehog) ID#225283:

Please try to explain what you think is going on...

I export to Russia....and import products from China both countries are economically F.U.Beyond B.

I do not think it would be to their benifit to stage such an event....I spoke with my Russian employee iver the weekend people in Russia are concerned about the amount of paper wealth that was recently wiped books in the latest market correction. Up until recently many Russian equities have been up 150 to 200% this year. the china situation on the other hand is one of keeping a large amount of people working/busy and feed...they cannot afford political or economic regression.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 02:59
PrivateInvestor U>(Jack) ID#225283:

You are not thinking geometrically.

Yes S/H. has all the Bio etc that we sold to him ....but if we were to attack him he would most certainly release them on Isreal....

Isreal would return fire with tactical nuclear weapons...

We would have WWIII in our hands or at least a very nasty bio/nuke mess.

Everybody losses...it is trulyero sum game....

The Russians and the French want the drilling and distribution rts to Iraqi oil.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 02:58
Strad Master U>(Testing out the new password) ID#250297:
Finally, we have a means of keeping the riffraff off the site! Thanks Bart! Just wanted to see if and how it works. Hey Bart! What can I do if aesthetically I find my password to be too mundane? Are they assigned by a random generator? I sure got the bottom of the barrel on this one. ( Just curious :- ) )

I'm still short gold as I hear that ther are a ton of sell-stops below 301. Been buying back into silver as fast as possible as I hear from reliable sources that there is NO supply to speak of. Delivery day is just around the corner. BTW, did anyone comment here about the delivery day for silver being inexplicably moved up to the day before Thanksgiving as opposed to the half day trading on the day after? Wonder what that means?

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 02:52
Hedgehog U>(War) ID#39845:
Private Investor this begs the question that maybe they are waging
a war of a different kind. Could a few countries, say China, Russia,
and Japan wage a war against the USA on currencies. Knowing their
systems are not up to scratch they could invest in their future and
sacrifice the present. Make the pendulum stop, make the egg timer flip?
Oh if I had the words to eplain what I think is going on.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 02:47
Jack U>(Biological Weapons reputed to be in Saddam's arsenal?) ID#252127:

If so we are giving him time to load the cannisters. In the 1st Gulf War, he set aflame a large number of Kuwati oil fields, be it war or the present sanctions; Saddam is capable of anything. IMHO

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 02:43
PrivateInvestor U>(Iraq conflict) ID#225283:

Does anyone have the latest press info from M.A. in Switzerland regarding the russian negotiated settlement to allow US inspectors back in Iraq.........looks like gold and oil will continue down.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 02:39
PrivateInvestor U>(Civil unrest in Bangkok) ID#225283:

Spoke with some friends from Thailand today....they will not be going home for the usual Nov/Dec holiday this year do to crime in the street asn general civil unrest!!!

Other Asian countries to follow//

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 02:32
PrivateInvestor U>(WWIII Gulf war two AVERTED) ID#225283:

THE RUSSIANS HAVE DECIDED THAT WAR FOR NOW WOULD NOT BE GOOD.......TIME OUT CALLED IN THE MIDDLE EAST?

RUSSIA HAS SPOKEN TO SADDAM.....

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 02:23
Jack U>(Silver in a Deflationary atmosphere) ID#252127:

With many of of us holding the belief that deflation is coming down the pike; has anyone an opinion on how silver would react in such an atmosphere?
My personal feeling is that the ever growing deficits will overcome any worldwide deflationary impact.
If possible, I would like to hear some opinions, Pro and Con on Silver in a deflation.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 02:09
aurator U>(One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter) ID#257148:
Éß, I am so curious about my password, and a touch scared, - I feel, well dirty....aren't straight alphabetical passwords no-brainers to crack?, and if they're restricted to the set of english words. oh well

off to solve the riddles of supply and demand, and to review some of the sagacities of today.

Have to say that La Rouche is off the planet, and he makes money out of that vile vituperation against the English Monarchy? Not that I give tuppence for 'em mind, but shielding terrorists?..La Rouche est La Mouche..what phase is the moon in?


aurator


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 01:51
EB U>(Why Bart?) ID#22956:
I seemed to have missed the explanation as to why we must search for posts after midnight. Why Bart? Why? Is there a fix? Or should I shut my pie hole and get over it?

evening The Aurator...I am still trying to find what my password means. It is the mystery of the eve for me and I will not surrender to the challenge. Wish I could tell you. You could figure it out.

Gold - Friday is approaching........like a Freight Train.......choo, choo!! chuga, chuga, chuga.......

away...to move out of the way

Éßlowing the horn......toot, toot!!

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 01:47
A.Goose U>(Nothing Much to say today.) ID#20135:
See you tomorrow.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 01:45
PrivateInvestor U>(test) ID#225283:

test////i can only view the wed post of D.A. re money supply.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 01:42
PrivateInvestor U>(test) ID#225283:

test

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 01:41
PrivateInvestor U>(test) ID#225283:

test

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 01:28
A.Goose U>(@pondCentral) ID#20135:
Where is Nick? Seems incredibly quiet.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 01:21
themissinglink__A U>(Hard pressed to enjoy the profits during civil unrest) ID#373403:
Good point, except I would rather have profit than the loss. Why does deflation lead to wars?

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 01:19
colleen U>(Modern Times, Bart !? {:-}}) ID#33164:
Morning Bart, Aurator dear..

Are the passwords working?

BART, ?- Why the access/time problem in the early morning RSA time? Is it and area problem my side, or something you're working on? How can I fix it?

It seems to be a Universal Communications Indicator - my radio station has also been having 'blanks'in the early mornings!

AURATOR: Miss the early 'show' these days.. so busy outside the office.

I was hoping to get some answers from Fred Crooks for JTF, Nick and the rest of you chaps, but by the time they arrived from Natal there was little time, and they were gone by 6 this morning so that he could speak at a business breakfast

I had thought dinner- and wanted him to come onto Kitco for an hour or two today to chat to you. He will be responding directly to JTF's questions, so I look forward to the results of that exchange.

Take care.


Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 01:10
AlKahulik U>(why buy gold?) ID#217243:
Well, major deflation could lead to major problems like wars.
I believe Gold went up in the 30's because of civil unrest.
If you think gold is a good investment, then you must believe
that there's lots of trouble ahead at which point you may be
hard pressed to enjoy your profits.
The other gotcha is that another strategic metal like platinum could easily decouple from gold and become the new defacto precious metal.
Let's face it, the Central Banks are holding gold not platinum.

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 01:01
aurator U>(someone's got a sense of humur/humor/humour with these passwords) ID#257148:


Midas, they say. possessed the art of old
Of turning whatso'er he touch'd to gold:
This modern statesman can reverse with ease –
Touch them with gold, they'll turn to what you please.

John Woolcot
1738-1819

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 00:40
refer U>(Where's the posts) ID#41229:
Lost

Date: Thu Nov 20 1997 00:16
themissinglink__A U>(Greenspan bets personal wealth on cash) ID#373403:
If we really are going to deflate on a global basis, why buy gold? Cash is king when prices are falling. What happens when everyone pulls their money out of equities to hold cash? Bond prices should shoot sky high if defaltion lowers interest rates to nominal levels.

This deflation would create a tax revenue problem for the government to cover the debt.

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