KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:59
gjkladj jfd'aj>(jfd'aj) ID#431126:
DA

If in 1974 I borrowed 10,000,000,000 Units of the Peruvian currency

there would be no market to market. Even if I used the currency to buy dollars.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:57
Ted @ EB>(@ EB) ID#364147:
I ain't payin----send'nuckles'--Willy will rip his face off... ( :o )

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:54
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
EB

Bye Bye Love.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:53
SDRer Nick@21:44; Carl@21:44>(Nick@21:44; Carl@21:44) ID#286249:
To: Nick--Tecnically, I'm not right-I just managed to understand a small portion of what you said. It's a graduate course! My impression of the opts expiration that you just detailed is that the 'downside' is the act of playing the game changes the rules.

To: Carl--Yes! What I found rather dis-spiriting ( we need to coin THIS word for our time ) was that over an eight year period they ( summiteers ) faced the same wretched problems ( Currency Instability crept, slithered, through every Summit ) and they did precisely NOTHING...In my darker moments I wonder if we don't deserve to be drenched in the coming storm.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:48
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
http://www.infoseek.com/Content?col=NX&arn=a2335reuff-19971111&dbid=4&CAT=NEWS&sv=N4&ak=news_head&kt=A

http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=5902794-256


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:43
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Auric
Sept and early Oct thanks.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:43
Armageddon @waiting>(@waiting) ID#201241:
TOLERANT1: Thank you for response. I read your post of 21.59 today and must say that, generally, I concur with your line of thinking. Unfortunately, like the posts I read in various forums from people, for example, anxiously hoping for information concerning indictment/impeachment of Clinton/Gore, I think things have gone too far to hope for such as that. Small hamlets as safe havens may be a useless dream as well...when that which is presently in the works advances that far, there really will be no such place or any real escape possible. There is certainly a bigger plan and design in the works, but I believe we may yet have some time and so should plan as best we can. I have my small funds mostly in gold coins because when man's hot air of limitless paper has played itself out, the gold that he cannot produce will still be sought out. Thanks to yourself and others in the group for some thoughtful and informative posts. I'll be lurking around...

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:42
Selby Toronto>(Toronto) ID#287207:
JTF: Do you have a URL for the June speach?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:36
D.A. BBML>(BBML) ID#7568:
EB:

Its Be Back Later.

Bon Soir. Off to dream of frosts.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:35
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com) ID#24140:
For Flood

Hey Mate, before you feel that your fellow Aussies
are being attacked by foreigners - be aware that my
passport is Australian and I have eaten more vegemite
than you have.
Disagree your views - they were ALL jerks and Whitlam
did more to ruin the country than any of the others.
Keep it up - you may be he NEXT PM.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:34
Eggbert Nicko@hissnozzle>(Nicko@hissnozzle) ID#227270:
Hey Nicko my man,you must have a nose the size of a hound dogs.
Can smell the fish before there anywhere around.
Can smell a change before it happens.
My kind a guy.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:33
D.A. upon.further.review>(upon.further.review) ID#7568:
Steve:

Thinking through this whole debt default cycle has caused me to retract prior statements about bankruptcy and money supply. My feeling ( which may not be correct ) is that the defaulted loan must be paid out of bank capital. Since this would be a repayment of the original loan it would shrink the money supply. If however, the bank went under and was insolvent, then all of the money created above and beyond their capital would remain in circulation and so the money supply would not shrink as a result. If loans are placed in the non-performing category or are renegotiated to extend their terms then the money supply would also not shrink. It is only the act of repaying the loan, thus taking money out of the system and erasing the original loan which causes money to disappear from whence it came.

I think.


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:32
aurator JFMAMJJAS>(JFMAMJJAS) ID#255284:
Nick@Aussie which missing month, mate?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:32
HighRise Every night 309>(Every night 309) ID#401237:
I just got on line here and saw todays gold chart, OK who sold today?

They did manage to hold the CRB down a little, but it was still pushing up pretty hard earlier today.

When does the Fed meet again? Is it tomorrow or the 20th?

Local paper HOMES NATIONWIDE ARE APPRECIATING MORE THAN THE INFLATION RATE - THEY ARE UP 8% LOCALLY. We are building new home every where

Is AG buying into this no inflation - deflation scam? What if he feels he has no choice but raise rates? Has the recent weeks decline in the markets been an advance warning of the big event? An effort to cushion the shock of the interest rate increase so that part of the fall can be spread out over time?

I am not convinced that AG will not raise rates.

The US Bonds have to compete for the remaining real money in the World and I think other countries are increasing the interest rates on their bonds. Is this correct or not?

Thanks

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:27
Barney @Tolerant1>(@Tolerant1) ID#260194:
Thanks, I was guessing it meant,I'm Hanging On. You, Nick, Panda,
Donald, George, Ted, Tort. ETC. I appreciate your posts. It means a
lot to me.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:27
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Auric
The best highs I've ever had, oh, the adrenaline.
Best haul ever was 14 tons in about 4hrs fishing.
We had to get another boat alongside to unload to.
So that we could go and find some more.
But that was it.
You have to take the opportunities when they arise.
Some of the marks of banana prawns, that I have seen have been over 400 tons.
You would have ten or twenty trawlers, going hammer and nail to get their fill.
In many ways, I miss my mistress.
She held me captivated for many a moon.
And I wish for the solance again.

Dreaming of large waves.
Cyclonic surges, to shake and rattle, all and everything.
Nothing like being on a good boat, out in 60 knots to feel alive.
The power and beauty is beyond compare.

Off to the bunk, to nap, till the next watch.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:24
while the acronym questions are flying>(while the acronym questions are flying) ID#2082:
What in the heck is BBL. I have tried to figure it out. I guess I'm not too bright.

away...to bbl...something or other

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:18
A.Goose @pondCentral>(@pondCentral) ID#20135:
Barney:
In My Humble Oppinion

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:16
Auric Nick@Aussie>(Nick@Aussie) ID#255151:

Your approach to this market reminds me of the way you used to catch prawns. First shout is on the Yanks when you bring in your catch!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:14
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
EB
April's
Globex 24hr charts are a treat. - all sessions @ quote.com
Last nights lows have just been taken out.

This has confirmed the breakout of the wedgie.
It shall be down from here.

The lack of confidence within these markets has just been confirmed.
Russia, Brazil, Japan, HK, all like gold seeking, seeking to find a base.
But it is so, so far to go.

To leap over the cliff without a parachute is foolhardy.

Away to contemplate.

KA..................................................CHING................... ( :o}}}}}}}}}}}}

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:13
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
Barney: In my humble opinion.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:12
toughguy @Quantico>(@Quantico) ID#364121:
KAHUNNA GRANDE; Good response except you forget good
imitations create good competion. In 1983, Zenith did not want to
spend any more money to allow the VCR to play more than one
hour. You know the rest of the story, today ther are no VCR'S made
by US companies. Take a look at he most popular cars in the US
and you know the truth. I am a veteran of this country and never
regret the contribution. The problem with the US is that things have
gotten too good. Im 56 years old and still work 11 hours a day. Thats
a culture thats now outside the acceptance of the welll to do yanks


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:10
Barney @IMHO>(@IMHO) ID#260194:
NICK: From and computer illiterate, what does IMHO stand for?

Thanks,

Barney


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:08
tolerant1 @tequilaville>(@tequilaville) ID#31868:
Mooney: Here, here, well said.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:05
Nick + Ted + Gold>(Nick + Ted + Gold) ID#2082:
Nick - the reversal looks like it happened 2-day. It shot to 315 and we Bears ate the legs off the Bulls...oh my...on to the battle. btw, I hope you are not holding Dec. options...ugh.

Ted - sorry for NOT paying attention this a.m. I was right about my old high school team being able to beat them...I just had the teams mixed up...DOH! http://www.nba.com/games9798/971109/nyksac/recap.html

This is the real team...oh my!! http://www.nba.com/games9798/971109/gswlal/recap.html
do i need to send 'knuckles' ( because he breaks 'em ) to the Cape to collect my world series dough HUH? Do I


Gold - I am ready for you.....BRING IT ON!!

away...to the charts


good moves in OJ/JO today. Will gold follow per my chart analysis

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 23:05
Mooney* @ LEST .WE .FORGET>(@ LEST .WE .FORGET) ID#348169:
LEST WE FORGET!
Today being the 11th day of the 11th month we take the time to remember those that
have fallen defending the ideals of freedom, so that we free citizens of the earth can
pursue our own unimpeded progress towards a better life for ourselves and our
families. Mundane arguments, racial and religious slights, and market crashes are as
nought when compared to the sacrifice of these brave souls. Let us not forget that to
us, from falling hands, the torch has been passed.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:57
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Auric

Ode to the 'Auroch'

- a recently extinct member of the cattle tribe.

_______to wit - a deceased bull_______________

You have a moniker to be proud of !!!!

Back to rock hopping ( :o}}}}

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:57
D.A. neither.does.the.Fed>(neither.does.the.Fed) ID#7568:
Steve:

It would appear that in addition to myself not having a clue as to what constitutes the money supply ( M1, M2, M3 ) the Federal Reserve is also in the dark. If you read the footnotes to the current release of the money supply you may find what the Fed believes are the components of money supply.

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/Releases/H6/Current/

If you could point me to where the spot wherein bank loans are included in the measures I would be appreciative.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:55
KahunnaGrande curtis@wtaccess.com>(curtis@wtaccess.com) ID#27454:
toughguy, The asians are good at imitation not inovation. Dont look for an asian company to rival Intel. This country, the US, is the leader in innovation. Name five patents that have come from asia. I bet there are five items on your desk that have US patents. The asians may beat the living stuff outta us once we invent somthing but their brains arnt developed for invention or innovation

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:50
Lan Man @Precious Metals Report - Bullish for Silver>(@Precious Metals Report - Bullish for Silver) ID#320108:
COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended mostly higher Tuesday, led by silver, but the complex gave back its early gains by the close, leaving gold slightly lower.

Activity was dampened by the U.S. Veterans Day holiday which closed many banks, traders said.

The move appeared to be led by silver, with the ongoing slide in
inventories and the Kodak news prompting some buying ahead of the December contract's delivery period beginning November 28, Refco analyst Tim Porter said.

Eastman Kodak announced a major restructuring, including layoffs of 10,000 staff, after admitting last week that sales of the new digital photographic technology were lower than expected. Digital photography had been expected to replace some traditional silver halide film development.

( Reuters 04:26 PM ET 11/11/97 ) For the second part of the story,
see http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=5902794-256

Had Been Expected, Had Been Expect....


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:47
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Auric & ET.AL.
A read of todays avid at the moment could be essential.
I smell a change, and I like it.

The discourse on this site and avid is ***different*** these last two days.

To read between the lines, instills my confidence.
I feel a change and it will be sudden, sharp and catch all unawares.

To many words of wisdom and to many correct assumptions are being made.
This make me feel that the second ping has been unleased,
And is ready to inflict its justice.
As well as all this above guff,
My charts and indicators and oscillators are warning me.
IMHO



Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:45
D.A. not.in.the.USA>(not.in.the.USA) ID#7568:
gfkljd:

In the currency markets your positions are marked to the market every night. I believe that for tax purposes your NAV at the end of the year minus the NAV at the begining of the year is your profit for the year and the gains or losses are taxed thereon. I will check with our accountant tommorrow and post anything to the contrary.

In any event, the currency markets work through forwards which generally have a duration from about one to three months. When the forward date comes due the instrument is closed out and surely this would create a taxable event.

In short, there is no free tax lunch trading currencies.

I am not sure of the situation with respect to an instrument that goes to zero. I will endeavor to find out, but my confidence is in the ability of the government to levy taxes on everything that moves, breathes or otherwise shows some signs of having blood which can be sucked. I would be amazed if they overlooked this little loophole.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:42
Steve harvester@parod.com>(harvester@parod.com) ID#289321:
D.A. Re:21:58 You clearly have no idea what constitutes the money supply if you think bank loans are not included as such.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:37
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Wetgold
Options. I don't think I could afford the others.
Our Oz markets have just broken to the downside after being range bound.
I expect that things will worsen from here on in.
If we get solid selling globally tonight,
I would expect that the following night will be the fall.
I doubt that we will get a third ping.
When we next start to fall hard,
I am expecting that the following night will be the crash.

The contagion should be complete and whole within the one move.
IMHO



Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:37
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
Selby ( @Toronto ) : It is very clear that Hashimoto wanted to buy gold - on review of that speech in June. As far as I can tell he would have two reasons:
1 ) He knows that the US dollar is going to drop relative to gold relatively soon -- soon to the Japanese could be 10 years or more. or
2 ) He knows that the future world currency will require that all participating countries have gold reserves as a cushion.
Neither of these choices would be appropriate for emergencies, where cash is needed now, but the Japanese government I think has enough reserves to survive a Japanese market crash, as long as they don't try to prop it up anymore.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:32
MoreGold @FIXED MARKET: ``Apart from government-steered public funds which bought fiercely on Tuesday, there are few participants around who are interested in buying and the market continues to be on a downtrend,'' a broker at a medium-sized brokerage said.>(@FIXED MARKET: ``Apart from government-steered public funds which bought fiercely on Tuesday, there are few participants around who are interested in buying and the market continues to be on a downtrend,'' a broker at a medium-sized brokerage said.) ID#348286:
Tokyo stocks finish morning moderately lower

TOKYO, Nov 12 ( Reuters ) - Tokyo stocks finished the Wednesday morning session moderately lower, failing to extend yesterday's rebound.

Brokers said that many market participants were opting for the sidelines ahead of the Liberal Democratic Party's second package of economic stimulus measures due out later this week.

At midday, the Nikkei 225 was down 235.86 points or 1.49 percent at 15,631.37. Its December futures were down 260 at 15,580.

``Half of the market is sceptical that anything strong will appear,'' Seiki Orimi, Dai-Ichi Securities analyst, said.

``But there have been times in the past when economic plans successfully pulled stocks out of their doldrums and investors are waiting to see what exactly is announced,'' he added.

The LDP package is due to be released on Friday and will be followed by the government's economic package on November 18.

Turnover was 211 million, up from the 195 million traded in the previous day's morning session. Losers beat winners 670 to 327, while 211 issues were unchanged.

The Nikkei average fell as low as 15,567.03 during the two-hour morning session, within inches of hitting the intra-day low for calendar 1997.

Brokers said that weakness in the yen against the dollar and profit-taking following the bounce on Tuesday was pressuring the index.

``Currency levels are of a concern because the recent weakness in the yen against the dollar shrinks dollar-based assets of foreign investors,'' Tetsuya Suzuki at Kankaku Securities said. ``If the yen continues to weaken beyond 125, investors could be tempted to cash in early which would be more burdens for the market to bear.''

The dollar stood at just under 125 yen in the morning after rising to that level overnight.

Blue chips including TDK Corp ( NYSE:TDK - news; 6762.T ) fell 640 yen to 9,860. Sony Corp ( NYSE:SNE - news; 6758.T ) lost 120 yen to 9,980.

The second most heavily traded issue was Sakura Bank Ltd ( 8314.T ) at 3.9 million shares. It shed eight yen to 422.

International telecom operator Kokusai Denshin Denwa Co Ltd ( KDD ) ( 9431.T ) was bid-only at 5,900 yen after being suspended on Tuesday pending information concerning a merger report, which KDD later denied.

But DDI Corp ( 9433.T ) , a leading supplier of personal handy phone system ( PHS ) services, lost ground as investors were more interested in KDD.

It fell 33,000 yen or 8.73 percent to 345,000, becoming the fourth largest percentage loser.

Brokers added news that the number of PHS users in Japan fell for the the first time on a monthly basis in October also weighed down the shares.

Oil, precision instruments, real estate, air transport and insurance were at the top of the list of losing sectors. Services, mining, rubber and credit/lease were the only major gainers.

The broader TOPIX index fell 15.47 points or 1.26 percent to 1,209.48.

The Nikkei 300 lost 3.59 points or 1.50 percent to 235.89.

``Apart from government-steered public funds which bought fiercely on Tuesday, there are few participants around who are interested in buying and the market continues to be on a downtrend,'' a broker at a medium-sized brokerage said.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:31
toughguy @Quantico>(@Quantico) ID#364121:
Attn: Bulls, as stated in previous postings look for decling volume
and declining prices. I reallly dont care whether gold goes or down.
The real issue is that those who invest in the paper stock market are
not very astute. IBM buybacks or any other companies are worthless
to the paper holders. My brother was once chief financial officer to
a prominent pubicly held company. They decided to buy a corporate
aircraft in the midst of airline deregulation. I asked him why spend the
money when you could give the shareholders a special dividend of
ten cents for their liability of holding the stock. He had no explaination
but within 18 monthjs the company filed for bankruptcy. What good
does Intel do the share holders at 75 when in an instant, an asian
can and will produce a chip that will far surpass their ability? They can
do all the buy backs they want.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:30
CIVILITY HEM'S INCIVILITY>(HEM'S INCIVILITY) ID#342232:
Hem ( Gold standard ) : If indeed you are an intelligent and cultured person, HOW on earth do you expect other intelligent people to take seriuosly your thoughts when your opening sentence is an insult. Frankly, I stopped there... and interpreted your acronym name H.E.M. name to stand for His Eminence the Moron! The Internet abounds in Trash Chat Groups, where undoubtedly you will find camaraderie!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:29
Auric 1000 Oz >(1000 Oz ) ID#255151:

G'day Nick, If you pull this one off, mate, you'll be the Wizard of Oz!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:29
Qestor Re: Auric, Nick, >(Re: Auric, Nick, ) ID#223146:
At todays price of gold ( $310/oz ) ,I believe the downside risk of gold is
$250/oz. On a 100 oz contract this represents $6000 exposure if you stop out at $250/oz. As Another has stated you must own the physical gold or at least have a contract that will deliver you the gold at a specified price and time. To me this is the way I can be assured of the ability to convert my currency into money ( gold ) . If you try to use the full leverage available in the futures market you will not prevail unless you have the strenght to take delivery. Try to put up 50% of the delivered strick price with the broker ( $15000 ) . As I see it this becomes an investment rather than a speculation and is the only way you may be able to achieve currency conversion in a crisis.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:25
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
Cmax: I forgot, there WAS a blockade put up, not by the Federal Government, by the Conch Republic. Check it out. I am sure there is plenty of third party material on the WWW about it.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:25
MoreGold @Go figure>(@Go figure) ID#348286:
HK down 291, exactly 2.91%. Japan on Sushi break.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:23
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
Cmax: The folks down in the Keys did not consider it a joke. I can assure you of that.

I suggest you start thinking not in terms of the United States, but rather the United Sections.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:20
MoreGold @Dumping those Japan Funds>(@Dumping those Japan Funds) ID#348286:
Foreigners net sellers of Japan stock via 12 firms

TOKYO, Nov 12 ( Reuters ) - Orders placed by foreign investors through 12 foreign securities houses before the start of stock trading on Wednesday showed a net selling stance of 20.5 million shares, market sources said.

Foreign investors placed 34.2 million shares of sell orders against 13.7 million shares of buys.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:19
Selby Toronto>(Toronto) ID#287207:
Hashimoto's Assistant: Actually nobody has come close to answering the question. Lots of answers to other questions but not the one I asked. But good idea--why not ask the Japanese.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:19
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
Selby: Because the US dollar and the Treasury paper is backed by the single largest debtor nation in history.

Gold is nobody else's promise.

The system is falling apart. It is as clear as can be. Paper is garbage, backed by liars and hotair.

Get it. That's why.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:19
Cmax tolerant1>(tolerant1) ID#339320:

tolerant1:
That was what I thought.
But if my memory serves, I believe that it was U.S. Customs and Immigration that closed the border, obliging those citizens to cross a border, effectivly implying that this zone was not part of the U.S.. Then, the citizens accepted that, said that if they must pass a border, they must be from another country, and thus are not subject to Fed taxes or regulations. Then they declared a mock war ( pretending to pretend ) against the goverment. Needless to say, the story was pretty much hussed up in the press, and the border checkpoint was quickly and discreetly erased.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:18
gjklajf fjdkl;aj>(fjdkl;aj) ID#431126:
Hello DA:

I disagree with your statement

One point that is completely obvious but is totally ignored by all those looking for a scapegoat
is that speculators must eventually unwind their positions to make a profit. If they sell anything
at x they must buy it back at x minus something in order to make a profit.


Speculators perfer NOT to by back a shorted item especially one that is going to be worthless.

If I short a currency and never buy it back, what would the tax consequences be None! the speculator would offically not have a profit even though he does...no taxes to pay.

An example; A Bank shorted some South Mark Bonds ( 7-11 ) at 86. Subsequently, 7-11 went bankrupt and the bonds no longer exist. There are no south mark bonds to buy back!!! There is no need to reverse the trade.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:16
Hashimoto's Assistant Hashimoto said: SELL T-BONDS AND BUY GOLD>(Hashimoto said: SELL T-BONDS AND BUY GOLD) ID#40264:
Selby ( Toronto ) : If you cannot comprehend the logic nor understand all the studies making it abuntantly clear WHY, THEN WHY NOT just accept Japanese Prime Minister's decision that Japan is going to sell T-Bonds and buy gold with the procedes. Call him..., maybe he will spell it out for you!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:14
Carl off to read>(off to read) ID#333131:
Thanks all for lots of interesting and informative posts today.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:11
WetGold @Nick>(@Nick) ID#243180:
Is that 20 contracts or options on those contracts ?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:11
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
DA: Your 21:39 Do you think the CB's are loaning gold to support all of those individuals ( or banks ) that have borrowed gold,sold it, and used the proceeds to buy something that supposedly earns more money than the cost of borrowing the gold? What confuses me is why other Central banks would want to borrow gold when they could use their own as collateral? Does it mean they don't have any gold, or are they just trying to make the biggest buck like the rest of us?
I find this very complicated -- I am just trying to figure out what to follow of the many interest rates on various gold trades. It sounds like what really matters gold wise is how expensive it is to loan. When the supply of gold is dear, then the problems arise. I'm very good at math, and could write down an equation for this if I had a clue as to what was being loaned to whom.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:11
Hem Gold standard>(Gold standard) ID#393102:
To anyone who thinks that India is going on gold standard: my advice
is to lie down until the feeling subsides, then seek immediate
medical attention.

Indian governments tend to be more populist than most, and currently
no political party there is strong enough to win an election without
a populist agenda. They recently granted a big wage increase to
the national government employees. In turn, this will trigger
similar demands from state level and other public sector employees.
From time to time, they give huge loan write-offs to farmers.
They have large subsidies on food, fertilizer, electricity, fuel.
They are not about to give up the ability to print all the money
they need.

On the other hand, Indian CB probably appreciates its gold reserves
more than any other country's CB. In 1991, India was on the verge
of default on its loan payments. The only thing that saved the day
was a bridge loan, obtained using the gold reserves as collateral.
The gold was redeemed after a few months, when India initiated fiscal
reforms and obtained longer term loans from IMF.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:09
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
EB
Waiting and watching the ebb and flow.

Waiting for the reversal spike, and hoping that it will be clearly visible.
It should be big enough to shock both sides bulls-bears.
I love denial ( :o}}}}}

But it will the one to catch when it comes.

Back to the rock to see further afield.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:08
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
Conch Republic - the Florida Keys - blocked off flow of traffic in or out in 80s.

I love those people.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:05
panda @>(@) ID#30116:
I'm taking bids on the XAU, do I hear 65 anyone? Get those hundred dollar bills ready, it looks like gold miners will be available CHEAP.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:05
mee Dumb and Dumber>(Dumb and Dumber) ID#34837:
Tolerant1: Your ref to Ted Butler's study Dumb and Dumber is at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler816.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:03
Nick @Auric>(@Auric) ID#386276:
Auric
I currently have 20 contracts on 'my precious'. = 2000oz au
If it was to explode upwards I could probably use ten of the contracts to pay for the delivery of the other ten.
If gold falls its only cost me $2k.
If gold goes to $400, there would be a good chance of suceeding.
I have not put this to pen and paper just a concept in my head.
I like the risk/reward scenario.
If I win I could end up with 1000oz au or whatever.
Like the S&P puts that I bought at the top the risk reward ratio doesn't get better than this.
You just need impecable timing, money to burn and a strong sense of conviction.
IMHO

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:03
.and.Flow A.Most.Excellent.Battle>(A.Most.Excellent.Battle) ID#2082:
This current battle twixt the Bears and Bulls is quite a good one. Who is the bigger animal? Who will prevail? I, for one, am having an excellent time watching the current price struggles. to and fro...and as Nick ( Au ) says...ebb and flow...oh my!!

gold down .70...hmmmmm............

and this is none too good for the BULLS ( you know the drill ) http://router.minot.com/~bohl/

away...to the battle with a BIG damn sword
flowing




and where the hell is Irvine-Boy!!!? i need some teamates...

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 22:02
Selby Toronto>(Toronto) ID#287207:
Donald: I agree that Japan would be better off with gold backing their currency if gold was stable but it is continuing to decline in value against the US dollar so I still say that until the US$ collapses Japan is better off with U$ than gold. If the 14000 line is the magic level it is very close and I see no reason to believe --given how far any of us can see into the future--that the U$ will collapse before the 14 000 level is reached.

1977: Not recommending anything. I'm trying to find a reason why Japan in the next few days to weeks is likely to get rid of all their US bonds treasurys etc and buy gold. If they do then gold should rise. b

Early Riser: the need for Yen by the Hong Kong banks may occur but I don't see Japan's need to sell assets to get the yen to give to the Hong Kong backs. Actually I suspect the Hong Kong banks would have the problem and if there was a shortage of Yen Japan would be overjoyed as the price/value of the Yen would go up as a result for a short period of time.

Anyway if Japan has a major problem once the 14000 level is reached then current charts make it look like it will happen soon. Why they would sell the U$ to buy gold under such conditions -- with the U$ more or less in its current state--- is a continuing mystery to me.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:59
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
No economist or politician will solve the problems that face this world wide figment standard paper crisis. In the US, the time for liquidation, and a few thousand auction bidders is at hand.

I think it's time we started to sell off the assets of the poiliticians, oh sorry, the government, oh sorry, We the People should call a few museums and start getting bids in gold and silver for the furniture, dinner ware, etc. at the whitehouse.

Next, all that valuable land, and all those other assets, We the People own. Once that is done, we can start over with a 100% backed by metal money system. Yeah, thats the ticket.

Yes folks, it's time we got rid of big government, one auction at a time. Each country in the rest of the world needs to clean up their own mess. Those international bankers, brokers, put them on trial.

And while We the People are at it, we should give the IRS and Mr. Greenspan and the Federal Reserve their walking papers. They cost way too much, and cannot be trusted.

Tax returns should be easier to read than a post card. The Federal Reserve, who needs them. Money is money, grain for grain backed by gold. Tell Greenspan and the rest of them to get a real job earning money and not cheapening it or printing it, or having costly meetings talking about it.

Like a barber shop, NEXT!


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:58
D.A. @the.money.supply>(@the.money.supply) ID#7568:
Steve and Bryce:

Debt defaults do not effect the money supply except in so far as they cause forced liquidations to repay whatever principal is possible. Absent a pay down of debt. There is no change in the money supply.

When you go to the bank a get a loan, the money is created out of the ether. Your bank account suddenly is inflated with cash money which you are free to spend on anything. Against this creation of money is a book entry which say you will pay the money back. If after spending this money you decide you can not pay it back and you declare bankruptcy, all that happens is that the book entry is eliminated. The cash which was originally created by the loan is still wheeling around the economy and will never disappear. The only way to get the money supply to go down is to have people repay their loans or to have the government burn cash that it collects from its citizens.

Bankruptcies wherein the assets of the defaulting party are a small part of the principal loan balance have very little effect on money supply. These kinds of bankruptcies would be expected to occur when the asset that the loan was originally created against had depreciated in price a vast amount so that liquidation yielded little money to repay the loan.

If the defaulting parties are governments, then the defaults are likely to be inflationary. When the bank of ( fill in your developing country which has run out of funds ) can not service its debts the IMF or some such body comes in and makes a loan. This loan is not a transfer of assets from the IMF to the country, it is a creation of money from the ether, which other central banks then respect. This procreative acts to increase global money supply by the amount of the loan. Since the principal of the loan will never be repaid, this is a permanent addition to global money supply.


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:57
Nick @Auric>(@Auric) ID#386276:


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:54
Cmax toerant1 conch rep>(toerant1 conch rep) ID#339320:

tolerant1: Why do you like conch republic? I was curious as to where you refer.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:54
Crystal Ball @Tolerant1>(@Tolerant1) ID#287367:
Where is Conch Republic?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:53
WetGold @Auric>(@Auric) ID#243180:
I could go 10 oz. Au if U get it set up ...

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:52
WetGold @home>(@home) ID#243180:
ALL: I called a representative from Prudential Securities regarding opening a Futures Trading account. I spoke with the man for about 30 minutes. I repeatedly told hime I wanted to buy a 9 month contract ( exp: Sep 98 ) for 1000 oz. silver at which time I will take delivery. For 30 minutes this man did not hear a word I was saying. He did not want to open the account - he kept talking of trading currencies.

Does anyone know a reputable broker to call to obtain a 1000 oz. silver contract on the CBOT that is willing to give me what I want ?

You folks have been so helpful to me - I thank U in advance ...

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:50
Auric Kitco>(Kitco) ID#255151:

Hong Kong down 2.5% Tokyo down 1.5% http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u I have a question about delivery of Gold from a futures contract. Is there any investment vehicle where you could use pooled funds to buy a futures contract, take delivery, then divide up the physical among investors? 100 ounces is too rich for me at this time, but 8 to 10 ounces would be just right. Any thoughts?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:44
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
SDR
Yes you are right, this goes on all the time.
Push the share higher, so the others start buying, then sell off your shares, then exit the future position.
It is a very common occurrence at option expiry time.
I have studied this many times in OZ, when playing puts and calls, on our blue chips.
Say BHP is at $17, and starts falling hard, and goes down to $16.
All the people, who have put positions, will stand to make a lot of money, from the market makers ( bookie, RT ) .
The bookie doesn't like to loose, and as his pockets are deep, will make sure he doesn't.
So he will strategically ramp the share, back to a position, where he pays out the least, back to $17.
He will work out on a computer, where the open interest positions,
Will hurt his pocket the least, and drive the share to that position.
This occurrence is almost so predictable, that you can trade it.
As in the above case, you would monitor the O/I, to see where the greatest numbers lie.
When you see them, starting to push the share back, to where they want it,
You buy the strike above or below.
So long as you do your homework, this method almost always wins.
I have watched them push a share, to the very cent of where they want it,
Right at the moment, when the option expires i.e. $17 for BHP.
This is one of the reasons, that futures and options really exist.
They know that 90% fall worthless at expiry, and they will try to make sure,
That the other 10% will not hurt them too much.
Also they can lead the market up, and down so easily.
These guys treat this like farming, and the gullible public follow.
This is why most people should stay away from them,
Unless they know the intricacies and the dangers.
IMHO



Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:44
Carl @home>(@home) ID#333131:
SDRer, See you found my post. I just read through Sylvia Ostry's summary of G-7 to 1990 you posted. Gives one a sense of how tenuous international cooperation is and therefore how dependent it is on the political strength and stability of the leaders involved. Earlier today I was trying to call attention to how weak the US leadership is likely to be for the next three years. I think Clinton's loss on Fast Track will mark a cardinal point in the decline of his presidency in so far as an effective leader on the international scene in concerned. This is sad and dangerous. But then, most things that are good for gold are just that.
By the way, didn't you love her neologism -ad hocery?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:44
steady @JIN>(@JIN) ID#285309:
JIN - Excellent post!!Great info!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:39
D.A. blood.in.the.water>(blood.in.the.water) ID#7568:
Neophyte:

That is a most interesting article. The only reasonable conclusion is that the Koreans in their desparate need for cash to stem their currency devaluation have borrowed gold, sold it, invested the balance in US paper, hoping to make money on the carry plus the declining gold price. If this in fact what they are doing, they are truly in desparate straights and are playing with fire. I wonder whether or not there is some G7 sanction to this activity. Instead of loaning them money they let them in on a rigged game 'assuring' them that they will supply the market with as much gold as is needed to keep the game alive. Perhaps this is why Switzerland has suddenly found the need to loan vast amounts of gold into the market. The high lease rates were begining to change the equation.

One thing that the markets do well is punish speculators trying to use one market to get even in another, even when those speculators are central banks. In the last gold rally back in 96 the rumor was that the Brazilian central bank was caught short in naked options positions and the market took them to town.

Anyone short gold at these levels has to believe that there is an unlimited supply of official gold available to the market both for lease and for sale. I think they will be proven wrong.


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:39
Steve harvester@parod.com>(harvester@parod.com) ID#289321:
Silver-re:18:07 I assume you meant to say the U.S. could easily counter DEflation by increasing the money supply. We have to remember that our monetary system is based on debt. When the Federal Reserve prints or creates money through electronic entry, it is used to buy bonds which our government ( you and I ) then begin paying interest on. The problem comes when we have borrowed more money than we can pay the interest on. Allowing ourselves more debt does not solve the problem, it only prolongs it. The deflationary scenario as I understand it would be what happens when we finally are forced to do the inevitable and begin writing off the bad debt which will never be repaid. Hence severe contraction of the money supply which has the tendency to feed on itself. IMHO

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:39
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
Dumb and Dumber by Ted Butler covers gold loans.

http://www.gold-eagle.com

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:39
sig sig@groping for the bottom>(sig@groping for the bottom) ID#287389:
Trying to find the bottom of this market makes about as much sense as a blind man finding the light switch. And as they say in the Blue Grass state, This gold stuff's done had the lick. On the other hand, many of the major mining companies are selling at near book value. But if these weak earnings continue much longer, the next step will be major writedowns of property values. Some of the discount pricing must reflect this possible scenario. We need all the luck available.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:38
JIN YES..STEADY!!BOTH HS AND NIKIIE LOOKED THE SAME SITUATIONS!HUH....?>(YES..STEADY!!BOTH HS AND NIKIIE LOOKED THE SAME SITUATIONS!HUH....?) ID#206358:
bt news read: http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/3/nfrnt02.html
hh

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:30
steady Update>(Update) ID#285309:
Hong Kong and Nikkei- both down 250.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:28
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
Kiwi: Do I have at least part of this right?
Imagine the bank depositing gold into an account at a brokerage firm ( LMBA ) . The gold will earn some interest, based on the demand for same, and a charge will be made for the holding of the gold. The CB can then borrow other assets such as US dollars ( to enhance their reserves? ) , using the gold as collateral with interest paid ( value of spot gold or price at time of loan? ) . All is well unless the borrowed goods don't make money, or the loaning institution wants to terminate the deal. I think what you said was even more complex than this. Comments?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:27
Crunch 16 CB selling gold & 19 CB buying in 1996>(16 CB selling gold & 19 CB buying in 1996) ID#344290:
Per James Turk in the semi-annual report '97 Midas Fund

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:25
Qestor @Observations>(@Observations) ID#223146:
There are 12 trading days left to unwind 107,937 lots of Dec gold contracts which goes into delivery starting Nov 28. This represents 10,793,700 ounces. COMEX warehouse gold stock stood at only 571,360 ounces Monday. IMHO there will be a hard push down on the gold starting tomorrow to find out how weak the hands are that hold those contracts. I for one am a player in the gold futures market. I hold 15 Dec contracts and plan to take delivery. I wonder how many others will take delivery and if they do --well it could be interesting.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:23
Carl @home>(@home) ID#333131:
Wow, That was scary. I just came on and the site came up all HTML code.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:16
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
Somebody at gold-eagle did a piece on gold loans. It was a straight forward piece. If I am not mistaken it was entitled Dumb and Dumber

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:12
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
Kiwi: I think you just explained most of what ANOTHER has been talking about in his mysterious manner regarding the Central banks. As long as interest rates are high on the currencies borrowed with cash obtained from loaning gold ( as collateral? ) , all is well. But if those currencies go south, the scheme falters, and the currency loaner may ask for the gold, and the scheme unravels unless more gold is added to cover losses in the currency borrowed. I am still not clear how the gold loan business is done. I would think that high interest rates earned on gold used as collateral benefits the Central banks. Do you understand this part? What gold loan indicator do you follow to get the pulse? Forward loans, etc.? One also needs to know what was borrowed by the central bank.
I think we are close to an understanding on this.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:05
tolerant1 @tequilaville>(@tequilaville) ID#31868:
Vronsky: Thanks

Donald: I will try and find specific article.

Armageddon: Eagle may die but eggs will hatch. Me, I like Conch Republic, if nothing else they have already shown a willingness to secede. Many eggs will hatch in my opinion. Many out of the way places would be a good place to take families in the US. Small communities.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 21:01
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Japan down 265 ( 1.67% or equal to 125 Dow points )
Korea down 13.80 ( 2.64% or equal to 200 Dow points )

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:53
kiwi the 3-8,000 ton question...>(the 3-8,000 ton question...) ID#194311:
who's gold has been leased?...i believe this key to finding what the hell is going on.
Neophyte's previous asks the highly relevant question what are the Koreans up to leasing gold on a gold lease rate/interest rate arbitrage?
I think they have been suckered in like the rest of the banks, including some CB's to an evil habit of leasing gold with low rates, then either selling or shorting the stuff on the market to raise much needed currency which earns better higher rates. One problem if their primary currency begins to devalue they have to lease more gold to raise more foreign currency ( ie dollars ) ...it's as bad as a heroin habit once you're in ya just gotta keep getting it.
So question is who's leasing all this gold? This party does not even have to have physical gold to lease out but just a contract on some physical, but come the time they will expect to be delivered physical at a time when the price has gone much much higher.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:52
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
Nick ( @Aussie ) : I think your 20:41 says it all! The plunge protection team gets the insiders to buy the index futures -- the loss on the future positions is nothing compared to the risk of not exiting. All the team has to do is synchronize the trades for maximum benefit - they don't even have to come up with the cash! Brilliant! Unfortunately, mom and pop and all of those 401k, 403b, IRA retirement people don't get the protection. I guess if the fall is orderly it is certainly better than doing nothing. Still doesn't seem right to me -- but I have lived long enough to know that the alternative would be like.
Thanks for explaining to me some key points I did not pick up from your posts during the last ping.

I will add the stocks and indexes to my portfolio list.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:52
Allen(USA) @JTF>(@JTF) ID#255190:

Exactly. Catastrophic breakdowns are seldom preannounced by the system itself. A breaking plank. A shearing force. A fracturing crystal. In each of these cases we can determine that irresistable forces will cause a breakdown, but we can not predict the moment of breakdown. There is no specific cause . Even the trigger event is not necessarily the cause, but just what we are fixated on in temporal relation to the effect. So it is fairly useless to speculate about what will push these fragile systems over the edge. Maybe one of these days someone will end up printing a report on their laser printer which will overload a circuit and cause a power outage on a router. The message which was keeping the system intact never arrives in time and the system begins to collapse. What was the cause? The cause was really the system itself, not the chain of event which we associate with its collapse.

We know that this financial system is getting more and more distorted and lopsided. There are so many elements which make up the system of commerce in this world. Hey, for all we know some guy in Zambia could forget to run a transaction for their central bank on time, thus causing a cascade of defaults!!!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:51
Spud Master Bombs away....>(Bombs away....) ID#273112:
Nikkie down 286 points and falling....

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:50
vronsky THE DINES LETTER - November 10, 1997>(THE DINES LETTER - November 10, 1997) ID#426220:
LATEST ON CURRENCIES

Internationally acclaimed market analyst, James Dines, shares his insights and foresights with us about current currency crisis.

Asia is awash in hammered & cascading currencies. The deluge of devaluations in South East Asia is spilling over into other countries on the opposite side of the globe -- and will wreak havoc in world stock markets. The Currency Contagion continues unabated...
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines1110.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:46
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Steady: That always burns me when I see the price of gold adjusted for inflation It should read the dollar has dropped 97% against an ounce of gold due to inflation

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:45
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
SDRer: You question of balance is better put to someone with a far better knowledge of the day to day markets. I am sure if you look at gold-eagle site there is information there.

If not, could anybody try to help SDRer on this topic.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:44
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
More study here:
New World Order Intelligence
http://home.inforamp.net/~jwhitley/

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:42
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
Miro: The best way to pull the wool over the eyes of people watching you.........do it right in front of them.

The lower the price, the better I like. The lower it goes, the more I buy. The lower it goes, confirms my thinking.

In my opinion, as has been stated here and at gold-eagle web site, we should be thankful for the current price and time we are being afforded to accumulate the relic, gold, the real money.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:42
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
WW: You may have it right! Beware the day that gold rallys, because that may be the day the plunge protection team no longer tries to hold the market up. I think it would be wise for us to let the non-precious metals market fall significantly before we jump in ( at least with both feet ) .

Otherwise us little gold bug surfers might be in for a big surprise when the 400 foot Tsunami hits the beach!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:41
WW @TED>(@TED) ID#18970:
Why do you ask about the spike in gold. The real issue is why the sudden decline.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:41
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
JTF
If you were carrying a $300 million portfolio and wantet to exit,
The ammount of money you would need to push the indexes would seem insignificant.
If 200 different people were trying to do the same, it would be a lot less.

What you do is use 1% of your cash to push the indexes then exit while the dippies are buying.
If you go back and search the week of 13thOct, you will see comments that I made then aluding to this.
A week after this stopped the dow dropped 500pts.

To follow the selling I use quote.com and keep an eagle eye on the bid/ask figures.
Watch them tonight, and see whether or not the masses are buying or selling.
I normally use one of the sites like http://206.7.107.50/pbscgi/mktw100c
You go to the most active section and see who has the biggest volumes and the most % movements.
Then go to quote.com and analyse whether they are buying/selling.
I was watching 20 to 30 major shares last night and they were being dumped unceremoniously.
LU, EK, CAT, TXN, GM, ITT, AOL, MER.
Also look at XBD.X - the Brokers Index
Tis method of watching the main movers works well in an up market as well as down market.
You can get a perspective of momentum.
Quite often the shares change on a daily basis.
It is important to have momentum to keep the ball rolling.
To me the momentum has been selling.
The last half hour of trading, was a buying surge,
But I think that it was based more on saving the indexes than starting a new up trend.
In a downward trending market, I am always happy to see it close off its lows rather than at its lows.
Closeing up gives it the ability to keep on its trend.
Days that close at the high or low quite often signal a reversal.
IMHO

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:39
Allen(USA) @Tolerant1 (so aptly named)>(@Tolerant1 (so aptly named)) ID#255190:

The post refering to additional bottom indicators was not pointing at you by any means. It was pointing at those anonymous posters who insist on berating those here who are still holding out for gold.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:33
Shek home>(home) ID#287279:
ARMAG,
Im not a US citizen.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:32
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Tolerant1: China, Japan, Russia, India. I would suspect that most of the Indian sales have been to private citizens, not to the CB. The citizens of India hold 10,000 tons. I had not heard about India going to a gold backed currency, only to gold accounts at banks. Did I miss something?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:31
Ted @ isn't NEM lookin cheap>(@ isn't NEM lookin cheap) ID#364147:
Anyone else think NEM is lookin cheap---hit 31.875 intraday....

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:31
WW @NE>(@NE) ID#18970:
If anything, todays action erases any doubt that there is a gold suppression fund in the deriviatives market. Who does it ( we really dont know ) but probably the bond warehousers on Wall ST. Todays attack tells me the situation is becoming untenable ( defeat of Fast Track by the Progressives in Congress they did not expect but they are smart nd dont want to discuss it ) . In sum, the greater the pressure on gold the greater the crisis and it is everywhere but oblivious to the mutual fund shovel money crowd who are being led to support the scam. The longer it takes to make new highs then BYE BYE. Then gold will have its day. The Wall St powers that be are signaling now that no rise in real money can be acceptable under current unstable conditions.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:30
Armageddon @waiting>(@waiting) ID#255421:
Shek, tolerant1: USA Eagle is dead?...think new passport?...got
that covered?...If REALLY true, I'm curious...where are you boys
planning to go?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:28
Ted @ Glenn>(@ Glenn) ID#364147:
Glenn: What was behind the spike in gold @ the opening

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:26
Speed @home>(@home) ID#286199:
Vronsky: Thanks

Miro: I agree. Reality is gold going down. Optimism says not much longer, but dry powder is getting scarce.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:25
Ted For Hepcat>(For Hepcat) ID#364147:
Dec. Gold down .60 @ 3-1-0

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:24
Ted @ JTF>(@ JTF) ID#364147:
JTF: pretty damn 'Eastern'......

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:21
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Nick@Aussie: Now they have got me really worried. Nowhere in those stories did they say the fundamentals are sound Woe is us!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:19
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
Nick ( @Aussie ) : Read your 18:50 post.
Would I be correct in concluding that there enough futures holding up the indices, so that the smart money can leave? That's a boatload of futures! Does that show up in short, or long open interest? ( I hope I am saying the right thing- I understand options well, but not futures )
My second question is what index you are using to follow block trades -- so that you know those 100,000 lot positions are exiting?
Your assessment makes sense - I am trying to see with your eyes, since mine are not experienced enough. The picture of the plunge protection team shuttling to and from Asia clinches it for me that trouble is afoot. I am nearly 100% short in the stock market with my funny money.
Virtually all my money is in US treasuries, waiting for gold to show signs of life. Only 3% of total assets long in stocks - gold and diamond stocks.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:15
Miro @so what?!>(@so what?!) ID#347457:
Tolerant1, Lan Man, well so what if China, Russia, India is buying, so what if latest issues of gold coins are sold? Gold keeps coming down like a rock. Somebody still puts more money into keeping it down. I believe it'll change, however, all scenarios I've heard so far proved to be invalid. It just seems to me that if you are not a trader playing daily moves or are not part of the big money which control this market, for a time being you are on loosing side.
BTW, I agree with Shek that you are not going to see a stampede to gold by average investor on the US street, not for a long time. Such a change in investment mentality does not happen overnight, and if it did, it'll be controlled by our almighty gov will control it, just like it controls a soft landing of stock markets. Do I sound pessimistic? Well, I am for a near term ( definition of near term is not clear to me at this time ) JMHO


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:14
Glenn XXXX>(XXXX) ID#376309:
Speed - NY spot gold is GC for gold and then the month code. For spot itwould be the current month. ie - this is November so the spot month code is X or GCX. the month codes for all the months are as follows:

Jan = F
Feb = G
Mar = H

Apr = J
May = K
Jun = M

Jul = N
Aug = Q
Sep = U

Oct = V
Nov = X
Dec = Z

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:08
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
Ted: Forgot where you live! Any Sikhs, Swami's or Eastern philosophers down the street? Any Buddist or Tibetian monastaries? Just how Eastern are you anyway? Prayer wheels too?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:08
vronsky GOLD CORNER - 24-Hour Trading>(GOLD CORNER - 24-Hour Trading) ID#426220:
Speed ( @query to all ) : GO to the following website and you will find what you need:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/quotes/goldcorner.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:07
SDRer @Reality.check>(@Reality.check) ID#28594:
To: Nick@Aussie
Have I got this right: someone buys the futures like mad before the open, forcing index funds to buy stocks, which activity is then used as a screen for the sellers? Then they throw enough scraps on the floor at the close to placate the indexers?

Re: News urls--yes, they don't sound good. How much will be in major US papers; network news...

To: Tolerant1
Thanks for the contribution. Is there a feel of balance on the buy/sell? Generally speaking?

Off for a long walk...

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:06
poster Conspiracy Update>(Conspiracy Update) ID#22763:
Trilaterist, Bilderbergers, New World Order, etc., for those interested:
http://home.inforamp.net/~jwhitley/

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:05
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
JTF
The powers have to confer and work out a global plunge protection plan.
There is, as we all know to much to lose.
I like Steve P believe that it will not be containable.
The two top articles, I just posted please read - interesting.
As for cycle timing my swing charts are showing that we will soon top out on the swing, from which, we will then enter a selling phase.
Waiting patiently.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:00
Cueball @it's Pl, not gold>(@it's Pl, not gold) ID#344210:
tolerant1,

Introducing the dead Paradigims

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 20:00
vronsky LOGIC AND CLARITY>(LOGIC AND CLARITY) ID#426220:
tolerant1: Your comments ring with Churchillian LOGIC AND CLARITY!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:59
Speed @query to all>(@query to all) ID#286199:
I was recently asked for a symbol for the spot price of gold. Since I don't know, I'll ask the group. On the COMEX, gold is GC, but how do you get the spot price using various lookup services like DBC etc? I always use Bart's price or ABN or EBN for spot.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:59
steady AU Price>(AU Price) ID#285309:
Adjusted for inflation ( inflation rate published/adjusted by the US Government ) and going back to 1789, the price of gold in today's $ is $425.25. This would further indicate the undervaluation of gold. During normal times this indicator along with gold .vs.oil and gold .vs. Swiss franc serve as a check where gold might be in equilibrium. Absent of CB inteference, gold spends a lot more time above this value than below.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:54
Neophyte article on gold and silver>(article on gold and silver) ID#390249:
I don't understand what the Koreans are doing with gold/interest rate arbitrage. Can someone please explain how it is likely to affect the gold market.

http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=5902794-256

I apologize in advance if this article or a variation of it has already been posted.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:52
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
Nick ( @Aussie ) :Thanks for your 19:01 post. You are far more experienced than I, and can see what I cannot see. Did you notice Donald's post about the Greenspan testimony on Thursday -- without a prepared speech? Apparently the committee congressmen want to ask him about the SE Asia situation, and whether it could spread.
What is especially interesting is that members of the plunge protection team have been shuttling abck and forth between SE Asia and Washington. Someone is really scared if they would do that. Do you think the plunge protection team is working on all major markets in synchrony? Heaven help us if they get out of sync, I would guess.
Any comments about Nov 20 or so being a short-term bottom, and Dec 1 a short term peak in the sp-500? The turning points in other US markets should be the same. I'm developing my skills as a short term trader - though will not do this until I retire. I know there is no way I can retire on my salary without knowing how to actively invest!
I guess we have not have our second ping yet.
Best wishes to all -- JTF

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:49
Lan Man @Pondering Thoughts>(@Pondering Thoughts) ID#317183:
Something that recently came to mind is the fact that if one goes down to the nearby PM Dealer and purchases gold bullion coins - say American Eagles today - that all of the coins are dated 1997. At least that is what I have seen. A year ago, I picked up a couple with various dates - 1993 and 1995. It seems that the previous years inventory has been sold out. Has anybody else noticed this? With 1997 looking to beat out the past 2 years combined, the U.S.Mint must be getting low on stock. Even the Canadian Maples I picked up were dated 1997...

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:46
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Donald some of these stories may interest you.
It almost sound serious:
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19971112010453073&top=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2332

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/news11-97/news.html#story5

http://www.webgate.net/~hewlett/signal.html




Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:46
Crunch Ramblings>(Ramblings) ID#344290:
Will Jap banks take massive cash injections from RR & AG with their blessings or sell US bonds to buy gold & vex RR & AG? US is still the superpower - that counts for something - maybe a whole lot. They'll take the cash and roll the problem into tomorrow as politicians are in this fashion given.

The Saddam problem? It just may be Clinton - he can't get the U.N. together and maybe has problems using force in an aggressive manner - today it looks like Saddam might be well pleased with himself. Indecision here will invite more confrontational problems. This, on top of the currency mess, probably has WJC moistening his trousers somewhat.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:40
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Near live quotes on the OZ market.
Includes gold price and SPI etc.
Currently $308.85 -85c

http://www.netquote.interpro.net.au/start.html
Go to AAP Summary

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:26
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Steve-Perth: During the crashette on October 28th we got down to as low as 22.79 at one point, a 13% drop from D/G 26.2. I think the high is in for the Dow ( knock on wood ) . It has been more than three months since the last Dow high. That is in spite of as much as $23 billion per month of new money coming into the market during those three months. Mornings are strong, afternoons weak, for those three months. We will likely get a wild rally but I am sticking my neck out to say no new high.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:20
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
SDRer: I think it is clear. The Chinese, the Russians, the Japanese, India. India has already purchased more in 9 months of 97 than they did for all of 96. Both China and India have alluded to going to a gold-backed currency.

Russia has some of the finest gold traders on the planet, and like I said recently, they have enough accounting mumbo jumbo to hide it to make a Cajun blush.

And I think the Japanese have been buying slowly for some time now.

Who knows what countries in the Middle East are holding and how much. Many tons I am sure. Many.




Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:11
13 @Thanks.Nick>(@Thanks.Nick) ID#183379:
Thank you for the comments!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:11
Shek home>(home) ID#287279:
SDRer
George S. Cole raised this question last May.
Answer: The news of gold sales is for masses consuption and media goes along with it. Manipulation of the price of gold.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:10
Donald @GreenspanHasHadHisArmTwisted>(@GreenspanHasHadHisArmTwisted) ID#26793:
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971111/business/stories/greenspan_1.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:09
Ted @ Hate to be a downer but...........>(@ Hate to be a downer but...........) ID#364147:
Dec. gold falling fast---down .50

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:09
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
Given the fact that there are tensions between Iraq and the US, markets tanking around the planet, I would say people go to gold. All the talk, new paradigm, hitech, yada, yada, yada, is not going to stop several thousand years of proof.

Gold is the only real money and only money that can be trusted.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:07
SDRer @Reality.check>(@Reality.check) ID#287280:
To: The discussion now being held

Might I ask you to consider the following: when Christies sells a painting for a lousy $45 Million, the FIRST question asked is, Who Bought It?

Why do we all assume that the sell part of a CB gold transaction is the part that is of most interest to us? WHOSE BUYING?

Just brain trust this around for a bit, Please? I'd really like to have some input. I don't think this is unimportant. I can't understand why everyone is so uninterested in the other side of the trade!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:02
Ted @ Bubba's Buck$$$$>(@ Bubba's Buck$$$$) ID#364147:
::::::::
November 11, 1997

Dollars Hits Six-Month High
Against Yen, Rises vs. Mark

Dow Jones Newswires

Traders gave up any reservations they had about selling yen Tuesday and
bid the dollar to a six-month high against the Japanese currency.

Late in New York, the dollar was quoted at 1.7093 marks, up from
1.7045 marks late Monday in New York. The U.S. currency was also
quoted at 125.23 yen, up from 124.36 yen.

Market expectations that Japanese or U.S. officials would talk the dollar
down as it neared the 125.00-yen level gave way to further dollar buying
as no reaction came from either side.

Japanese Finance Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka, speaking after the dollar
broke though 125 yen in Europe, declined to comment on specific yen
levels -- a decline that traders took as a sign that intervention wasn't in the
cards.

The fact that we haven't seen much in the way of serious expression of
woes about a strong dollar has been giving people a great comfort level to
buy dollars, said Ron Leven, a global currency strategist at J.P. Morgan
in New York.

The dollar hit an intraday high of 125.30 yen, its highest figure since May
8, when it reached 125.33 yen.

Tensions in the Middle East and weakness in Asian markets continued to
prop the dollar up amid some speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve
might make a surprise interest-rate increase at its Federal Open Market
Committee meeting Wednesday.

Trading was light in New York as many banks reduced foreign exchange
desks to skeleton crews for holidays in the U.S., France and Belgium.

Despite a dip late in New York, the dollar also gained against the mark on
what traders said was short-covering sparked after the dollar slid below
1.7000 marks in Asia.

Return to top of page
Copyright 1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:01
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
JTF
Also the indexes broke some important support lines between 3 and 3:30.
If they had not bought the market up, in the last 30 minutes,
It would have looked very bad to everyone.
There was a very tight wedge in both the dow and S&P
And when it broke out of this wedge at 3 and started to look ugly, they pushed it up.
The mere fact that it made a lower high and lower low,
After breaking support out of a wedge gives me confidence in my call.
Our OZ market still performing to t/a.
It is not bulling up and is insipid and weak.
Smart money will be leaving.
Like I said yesterday,
This feels like the calm before the storm.
IMHO


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 19:01
Shek home>(home) ID#287279:
got that covered.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:59
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
Shek: Think new passport. USA Eagle is dead.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:57
Shek home>(home) ID#287279:
MoreGold,
I assumed that you were talking about a total global financial collapse.
That would be followed by socio-political upheaval as never seen before.
In that scenario, forget about tax heavens. People in power and 90% of population prefer status quo.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:55
JTF @Catastrophe theory>(@Catastrophe theory) ID#57232:
Allen ( USA ) :I like your comments about the fact that we may have little warning of a currency collapse. Personally, I think we might have a few days to as long as a month, but I cannot discount your statements.
A good analogy might be sitting on a 20 foot long 2x4, forty feet or so above the ground. Everyday for the last 54 ( Kondratiev ) years we have been moving out from a firm support -- a fraction of an inch perhaps.
Heard a few creaks and cracks during the last few months as the 2x4 bends ( strain ) . However, as we keep moving out further, oblivious to those little noises, one day we will suddenly find ourselves falling to the ground. There is no engineer in the world that can predict the day that 2x4 will fail!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:54
SDRer @Reality.check>(@Reality.check) ID#287280:
To: Carl@15:48/JTF@Sane/Allen@USA, interested folk

Carl, you've presented me with a--dare I say it--gold mine! Thanks.

I've been at the G-7 archives and reading ( among other things ) a speech by Ostry. Take a look--astonishing how relevant the speech still is to the present.
Be forewarned, this is not doomster stuff; a thoughtful, intelligent appraisal of the Summit Scene over a decade +/-.

http://sung7.univ-lyon2.fr/toronto/ost3.htm

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:53
Shek home>(home) ID#287279:
tolerant1,
Think 1934. Prison terms and fines for not turning gold to FDR.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:52
MoreGold @Outlawing Gold>(@Outlawing Gold) ID#348286:
Shek, this can possibly happen in selected countries, but I doubt it would be wordwide. There are many tax havens and other hungry nations that will be willing to hold your noble metal for you. You may have to do some moving though.
Also, I beleive that enough of the metal is/will be in the hands of influential powers, who will oppose/stop any politican decision to confiscate Gold here. These large investors will protect there
holdings.
A more likely scenario will be levying huge taxes on Gold mines,
in effect restocking the CB with mined Gold.
As long as the USA CB keeps it's supply at Fort Knox, they will be relatively well positioned to back the US$ compared to other Gold deprived countries, when the currency turmoil hits......

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:50
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
Shek: What are you talking about? Gold hoarders. Give me a break. Ask anybody about gold and you get the deer in the deadlight look. All that wonderful paradigm paper goes poof and gold is to blame. I don't think so.

In addition, you better think twice about the debt forgiveness. I don't think that will occur. Nope. Riches to rags buddy. Sad but true.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:50
Ted @ JTF>(@ JTF) ID#364147:
More 'Eastern' than Cape Breton

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:50
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
JTF
If you have a look at the adv/dec figure and also the up/down volumes,
You will see that there has been lots of selling these last two days.
There was quite an imput of up volume in the last 1/2 hour.
It was a solid buying impulse.
So I'm watching closely.

What stands out is these globex morning rally's,
We have now had two of them, where they ramp the market up, using futures, then for the rest of the day, there is very solid selling.
If those buyers hadn't come in, in the last half hour, today would have been very negative.
This action is a very cheap way to unload large parcels without damaging the markets features.

I don't know if you remember, but the day after AG came out, and talked the markets down, this same action occurred.
I think it started on 13th Oct.
There was four days in a row, when they pushed the globex futures up and then sold into them.
At the end of those four days, the dow was at the same figure, as when it started.
This is the work of smart money exiting.
The next week, following this action, is when the market broke and headed downhill.
I expect that it's exactly what is happening now.
I would expect this to happen again tonight.
We also have option expiry soon, so I expect the market makers,
To push the indexes, to the levels where the open interest, works to their advantage.
This is a common trick.
So the next couple of days, I expect the market to keep selling off, with the indexes to be pushed up.
After option expiry, the market should get back on track to where it is going.
I was watching a lot of major shares last night and there were some big numbers going through.
Some major players were dumping 100,000 lot positions.
They are using the system to exit gracefully.
They would not be doing this, if this market was to be going higher.
I expect a repeat of last time i.e. selling off now, with little change in the indexes
( keeps the mums and dads quiet ) and following the option expiry, for the markets to sell off sharply.
I will be playing it this way, till my major resistance levels, get blown away.
If you were to have a good look, at a lot of the majors charts, you would realize how sick they look.
The markets internals are very sick, and these no movement days, are only made to look like that.
Look under the surface and you will get a different opinion.
IMHO

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:49
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au) ID#284177:
DONALD: so the Dow/Gold ratio is
Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:26 Dow/Gold Ratio = 24.38

I recall it being at least 25 or more a month or so ago.
Does this mean that the ratio will keep falling towards 20 or more.
This would obviously signal a long term drop in the Dow!!

Have been lurking, but not posting, as there has been a weird
posting regime that I could not be bothered with. Seems to have
gone now.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:48
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
JTF: I am sure there will be a major dollar crisis unless we return to gold, and do it soon. Things are moving fast. We have the gold, now we need the devaluation decision that only a crisis can force. Debtors will be hurt as they still owe dollars, what would then be newly valuable dollars. It would be a replay of the 1873-1896 Cross of Gold crisis.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:44
JTF @Home synchroncity>(@Home synchroncity) ID#57232:
Ted: It's called synchronicity -- and to be honest with you, I understand little of this. I suspect our Eastern associates could explain it better than I. Not a Western concept. But worth knowing about, since our Western world is lacking in the big picture.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:43
1997 Selby>(Selby) ID#258394:
I've followed your posting carefully and you seem to make a lot of sense. What are you presently recommending?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:43
Ted @ EB>(@ EB) ID#364147:
Snap out of it bro....sac beat nics.......go gold~~~~~~~~~~~~

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:43
llurker ////>(////) ID#320141:
Japan's PM comments regarding selling US Treasures:

NEW YORK, June 23 ( Reuter ) - The following is a transcript of the question and answer in which Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, following a speech at Columbia University in New York, commented on exchange rates and Japanese holdings of government securities ( reply translated by Reuters ) :

Question ( in English ) :

My name is Thomas Lehrman from Tiger Management. The Japanese government has about $200 billion in reserves; most of those are held in U.S. government securities. In light of the fact that over the last 20 years the U.S. dollar has lost about 50% of its value against the yen, do you think it is in the long-term interest of Japan and its people to
continue to accumulate U.S. securities?

Hashimotos answer ( in Japanese ) :

I dont suppose there is anyone here from the Federal Reserve System or the New York Fed? Actually several times in the past, we have been tempted to sell large lots of U.S. Treasuries. For instance, when we were arguing with Mickey Kantor in the US-Japan auto dispute, or when the exchange rate has suffered extreme movements and the American people have done little but look at domestic issues, concerned less about the
role of the dollar as the key international currency.

To be honest, we were very tempted on those occasions. However, in terms of fund management, we did not take the most advantageous road. Rather we had the choice to sell Treasuries and increase our gold reserves. Supposing the Japanese government
sold some of its Treasury holdings, I think that the American economy has the underlying strength to withstand this. But would such an action not have a large impact? This is what I want everyone to reflect on.

It is not just Japan. There are many countries in the world which conduct the management of their foreign exchange reserves in Treasuries. These countries continue to hold on to those Treasuries, even when the dollar plummets. And to some extent, it is this continued holding of Treasuries which supports the U.S. economy.

This is the point which is not sufficiently recognized. I hope the U.S. will engage in efforts and in cooperation to maintain exchange stability so we will not succumb to the temptation to sell off Treasury bills and switch our funds to gold.
( End of answer. )


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:41
Shek home>(home) ID#287279:
More Gold,
Average US citizen is heavily in debt. If everyone defaults, what are we going to do? Give everyone gold? No, we will have a new improved currency. Majority will want that.
Gold hoarders will be punished because they caused the collapse.
Beware of desperate majorities.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:40
Ted @ ain't this a small world>(@ ain't this a small world) ID#364147:
Got the headphones tightly strapped on with 'The Boss' playin---born in the USA and just happened ta scroll back and see the Boss himself is now posting @ our site......welcome bruce..

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:40
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
288000: You may be new to the USA, but you show more sense than the average American -- not a good time to be borrowing. I would suggest that you sample the responses of a variety of Kitcoites, before you focus on anything in particular.
I have a little trouble following your Biblical references, but I suspect that you are a very solid person, probably better prepared for what is coming than most Americans. I am saddened by all their emphasis on material things -- it is important to enjoy oneself, but at what cost?
It is always good to stock up during those 7 years of plenty so that you will be prepared for the 7 years of hardhship. That is a Biblical reference I do know. I am a Physicist, by the way, and am convinced that there is a Supreme Being guiding us -- the world of Physics is a humbling one -- because the more you know in this field the more you realize you don't understand. I guess I am more of a spiritualist, like Einstein -- but I do identfy -- I think -- with where you are coming from.

Hope you are successful in preparing for a rainy day -- like many of us on this site!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:40
Allen(USA) @All Predictors of Crashes>(@All Predictors of Crashes) ID#255190:
Crashes by their nature are not predictable by using TA of recnt past history. This is so because crashes are always massive, sudden deviations from recent past history. That is not to say that we can not know the 'times and seasons'. But most often the 'day and the hour' will elude us.

It is very important to have measures which describe the prudence of markets, or conversely their foolishness. Long term past history does provide us with an understanding of the general conditions of markets which are likely to crash or be eaten by a bear. Just as it is important to judge circumstances from a limited base of knowledge to assess risk and be prudent in participating in it, so it is important to know when to not participate.

Equities are over extended. There is to much debt in the world. Easy money has been chasing fanciful dreams based on blue sky expectations of the future. Derivatives, intended to protect, are becoming an amplifier of volatility. Asia is experiencing a fall and a vote of no confidence from those who trade in their currencies. On the one ahnd we hear about the marvels of golbalization and in the next breath that crisis elsewhere do not matter to the USA ( huh? minor contradiction, no? )
The Euro plan has distorted currency values in the US Europe and Asia. Just when asia has been realigned to the new value of the US dollar the Euro will be pushing the dollar steadily downward in value as capital repatriates to European econommies. This in turn will cause another vast series of abrupt revaluations. Only next year it will be the US$ which will be hammered into the ground.

Gold is at an all time low ( adjusted for inflation the $285 bottom is actually higher in real terms than today's 310 price ) in relation to the US$. The price of gold will rise on the basis of three factors: 1 ) US$ drops in relation to european currencies participating in the Euro, 2 ) the equities bear grabs, kills and eats the bull, 3 ) volatility forces a re-evaluation of bonds as a safe haven ( quality yes - safe maybe ) .

This market is being deflated gradually. Equities and gold markets are being massaged to provide for a predictable, steady decline ( hope it works out ) . There is concerted effort by many vested interests to keep a crash from happening or to ameliorate the effects of one if it does occure. If this international team can work together and keep this baby in a controlled descent then they should all receive medals and parades. If they lose control, watchout baby-cakes because it will be hell.

Gold will respond. My bet is 85% slow rise after they have let enough wind out of the sails of these markets to keep the system from disintegrating. Let's all hope they have God's grace in their efforts.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:36
Donald @YenAnalysis>(@YenAnalysis) ID#26793:
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971111/business/stories/dollar_2.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:34
Shek home>(home) ID#287279:
MoreGold,
The 95% of the population gives mandate to our leaders to outlaw gold and create new currency. Otherwise they starve.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:34
Bryce Problem with monitization>(Problem with monitization) ID#262398:
Silver, I'll repost my earlier post on this topic. Got to go for now


D.A.: Enjoy reading your comments. I would not expect, however, a
subsequent paydown of debts, rather a massive liquidation of debt. It simply disappears through default. Similar to the realestate debacle in the late 80's-early 90's. Wealth simply disappears. Easy money somewhere on the planet must be converted to dollars. If there are fewer dollars being chased by massive amounts of foreign currencies, then the dollars appreciate and again we have deflation. Should the printing presses begin to roll and monitization of the debt begin, foreigners would cash out of their dollar assets, crashing both stock and bond markets. The treasury would then find it had no foreign customers for it's massive debt offerings. It is my opinion that AG would view this medicine as being worse than the disease.

If the IMF comes in to save the day, which would be the most logical
expectation, it is unlikely the loans would come without strings attached. The required changes could very well challenge our constitutional form of governance.

I agree that manipulations will continue in an effort to push the inevitable off into the future. At some point things will go wrong and all the chickens will come home to roost at the same time. As you, I do not look forward to the day of reckoning.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:32
Early Riser @home>(@home) ID#228275:
Selby: I'll step up to the challenge of your question. Japanese banks would sell US debt if there was a run on the banks as in Hong Kong. I assume their liabilities are mostly in yen terms, so they would need to sell non-yen assets if depositors wanted to get their yen back. Now will this happen? I don't know. In the US of course, depositors don't have to worry due to govt insurance as in Savings and Loan fiasco.

By the way, their was a good headline in Chicago Trib today: Home prices going up faster than inflation. Huh? What the hell is inflation, anyway?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:32
MoreGold @ A little over 300 billion US dollars buys every once of gold in every central bank in the world. When Japan crashes, none of this will be for sale. Gold miners have sold forward about two years production and speculators hold large short positions. How high does the price go when the US $12 trillion in household savings starts chasing an asset there is so little of? >(@ A little over 300 billion US dollars buys every once of gold in every central bank in the world. When Japan crashes, none of this will be for sale. Gold miners have sold forward about two years production and speculators hold large short positions. How high does the price go when the US $12 trillion in household savings starts chasing an asset there is so little of? ) ID#348286:
Amen.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:31
Cmax @so your gold is becoming worthless, Mr. Springsteen?>(@so your gold is becoming worthless, Mr. Springsteen?) ID#339320:

Well Mr. Bruce Springsteen:
Methinks you are a reincarnation of someone we once knew.
If you are so sure of gold's impending lack of value, I will be more than happy to relieve you of your gold, in exchange for a dozen Caribbean tourist condos, selling at $34,000 each. Heck, if it makes them sell any faster, I'll even take your worthlesss gold at $500/oz.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:26
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
I am neither disillusioned nor a goldbug. Virtually all is in the metals, physical material, e-gold, some metal and oil stock and the remainder is like a jet fired up for take off, except in my case in the form of wire transfer to immediate metal.

In addition I sleep like a clam buried deep in the consoling mud. Peaceful and content.


But then again I think Albert Schweitzer was right about alot of things.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:26
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
Donald: Interesting point about trying to lure everyone to a new currency, by basing it ( in part ) on gold. I have several conceptual problems with this.
First, it will be hard to wean the average currency user ( country ) off the US dollar, unless there is a major dollar currency crisis first. Then, someone ( with the gold - a Rothschilds bank? ) steps in and offers to pick up the pieces. Of course, by then the US dollar will play a minor role.
Secondly, a compromise basket deal with gold as part of the package this early in the game will not work -- the basic problem with paper had not been resoloved, and the public still thinks gold is valueless, so everyone uses the US dollar instead and ignores the new currency.

My conclusion is that with either scenario, the prevention of a dollar paper crisis cannot be prevented. I think the only way a crisis can be averted at this point would be to bring in all new management and restructure, just at they do with corporate turnaround team.

Without that world-wide corporate turnaround team, I think the outcome is inevitable, and the powers that be with the gold -- whoever they are -- will be ready to set the new financial rules for us all when we are ready to pick up the pieces.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:20
Shek home>(home) ID#287279:
Donald,
$US will be replaced by Euro and the charade will continue.
The system is not dead, it is in a process of change. There will be defaults, inflations, deflations currency changes, and everything will go on. The worst ( the initial, shocking news of SE Asian problems ) is over. The 550 point drop was a huge problem for them. They have shown that they are in manipulative control of the system.
Now they have created the Iraq problem to give the global media and people something to cover and to worry about ( instead of the real, financial problem ) .
The manipulation continues and the system survives.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:16
288000 voice@wilderness>(voice@wilderness) ID#264415:
Re: tg. Howdy! Asking cash from Peutz? To be a debtor is not a good idea.
Let's supposed John the Baptist lives in the wilderness, trying to escape
from the coming financial turmoil, how much WILD HONEY and LOCUSTS should
he need?
But, everyone of us, as long as not a debtor, lives much better than that poor guy did. God blessed America!?!?!?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:15
Bruce Springsteen @SpotMarket>(@SpotMarket) ID#66272:
Lookin at the spot gold price it reminds me of one of my old songs....
I'm going down, down, down, I'm going down, down, down....


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:14
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Silver: Good question. Bankruptcies, default, stock losses and such destroy dollars faster than the Fed can create them. The people who need the money the Fed creates are no longer qualified to receive it due to their insolvency. Thus the new dollars pile up in the bank as unused reserves.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:13
Allen(USA) @georgeCole RE: Bear Bottoms>(@georgeCole RE: Bear Bottoms) ID#255190:

You forgot to include as indicators that 1 ) premature goldbugs who became disillusioned will retunr to the equities fold and 2 ) they will return to taunt the remaining gold bugs because of their superior common sense in getting out of gold and back into equities.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:12
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
Nick ( @Aussie ) : Still with us? I wanted to compare very short-term market notes. The last couple of days the US markets look relatvely quiet to me - in a range, as I guess the gurus would say. That little rally at the end of the day in the DOW,SP-500,NASDAQ,NYSE looks a bit more bullish than bearish.
On a little longer term ( SP-500 only ) --
Fischer TGD ( time goal days ) analysis ( or logarithmic spiral analysis ) , would predict a short - term bottom around Nov 20, and the next short-term high Dec 1, or so. I would guess these dates are +/- 2 days or so. I don't understand Fischer's methods enough to give a price estimate. Would be interesting to so see how this compares to Elliot wave analysis -- which is related to Fischers method. Both use the Fibonacci series.

Comments from Fischer or Elliot guru's? I'm new at this and testing my short-term skills ( better at longer term investing ) .

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:10
Allen(USA) @Virginia>(@Virginia) ID#255190:

One thing we must keep in mind about T-bills or bonds is that a sell off by a major holder such as Japan would induce a sharp increase in discount ( expected return increases ) . Thus if one is holding at a discount of 5% and discount jumps to 7% then the bonds you are holding will actually lose value ( the 5% ones ) . Personally I think a money market account which specializes in inter-bank very short term loans is a good place to park a few bucks. As we have seen in Asia when currencies get walopped the inter-bank loan rate skyrockets. This would be OK for the money market holder. Bonds fall in value if the interest rate rises. I believe I recall that it has been said that bonds are a poor defensive strategy. Warren Buffet, on the other hand, has placed mucho denaro in 30 Year zero-coupon bonds. He probably figures that at some point in the next 30 years interest rates will be lower than they are now. Nice if you have that kind of time!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:09
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Shek: You said: japan will not start buying gold because that would destroy the world financial system,

The events of the past few weeks tell me that the world financial system is dead. It has just not been buried yet. At the very least it is on life support and the CB doctors are in Europe right now deciding how to pull the plug. We are in a major crisis. This is serious and contagious stuff. Fully a third or more of the world's population has already felt the impact of the devaluation disease. Listen to Jin and multiply his feelings by 2 billion people.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:07
Silver @home>(@home) ID#289349:
I keep hearing talk about pending deflation. Someone please explain how this is possible when the US can easly counter inflation by simply increasing the money supply?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:05
Ted @ Bubba>(@ Bubba) ID#364147:
Klinton suks................$$

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:04
arden ardengold@msn.com>(ardengold@msn.com) ID#201239:

Comex warehouse gold and silver stocks unchanged today - ( bank holiday! )

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:04
Dave in CO @tj>(@tj) ID#215211:
tj:

Thanks for clarifying LGB's analysis. Oh, and you left out racist.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 18:00
Shek home>(home) ID#287279:
tolerant1,
Americans don't care is right. Look at WJC, our leader.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:57
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
Shek: I think you are wrong. That's all. We just disagree. One thing you did say that is a truth.

Americans don't care.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:55
Joe Flood @to John Disney from Oz>(@to John Disney from Oz) ID#24838:
Hey mate, we'll criticise our own politicians thanks. Is this from the country that gave us Nixon, Bush, Reagan and Clinton?

My assessment of our lot: Whitlam was a true statesman who was done over by his colleagues and his lack of economic knowledge; Fraser was not a PM but has done some terrific work in Africa and other places since, Hawke was just a jerk with an amiable image; Keating was the best politician we've produced in a generation but he had a savage streak that made him unpopular; and Howard - well what can I do but agree? Only equalled by MacMahon and Holt.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:54
tl what was that place in Mexico?>(what was that place in Mexico?) ID#369243:
Here it is. Don't you think it would be a better idea just to
report it every coupla' minutes so that everyone could
see it immediately when they logged on?

Currency Chaos and Financial Collapse

To understand the world financial situation is to understand the difference between reality and illusions of reality. It is to understand that the basis of all financial failures is the inability to pay debt. Debt is repaid from income or profits. When income or profits are insufficient to repay debts, default occurs. occasionally, new debts are provided to repay old debts, but this will only increase total debts and future losses.

Since 1990, the world has witnessed a large economic expansion in the US, and explosive growth in Southeast Asia and China. Within Japan, short term interest rates were decreased to 0.5% and the government initiated the largest fiscal stimulus program the world has ever seen. Has anyone questioned why the second largest economy in the world, with all of its major trading partners having sustained growth, with the lowest interest rates the world has ever seen, with the largest fiscal stimulus package the world has ever seen, has not grown and now the economy is contracting at an annual rate exceeding 11% ?

To begin to answer this question, one must return to pre-bubble Japan, when the Nikkei was near 40, 000 when land values at Ohtemachi and Toranomon in central Tokyo would have bought all of Canada or all of California, and when Tokyo was worth more than the United States. On the basis of these valuations, the Japanese Banks, making them some of the largest corporations in the world, lent trillions of dollars. These loans were not supported by the income of the borrowers, but by the assets they pledged for security. Today, the Nikkei is below 16, 500 and dropping, and commercial land prices are down 70% and dropping. The loans are still outstanding, but with borrowers unable to repay loans from income and realizable asset values far below loan values, these loans remain on the books as the losses on these loans likely far exceed the banks' capital. The size of total losses is unknown. However, during November/95, Japan's finance ministry announced that non-performing loans at the Osaka based Kizu credit co-operative were 960 billion yen representing more than 70% of total loans. A further 230 billion yen were thought to be doubtful leaving less than 10% of Kizu's loans as performing assets. Does this tell us anything about how the balance sheets of the large banks really look? The loss of net worth represented by the collapse of the Japanese stock and real estate markets represents many trillions of US dollars. At the height of the bubble, Japanese land values were estimated to be between 16 to 20 trillion US dollars. A 70% decline represents a $11 to $14 trillion dollar loss in the real estate market alone. When the banks start selling real estate to repay bank loans, look for the market to drop even further. Add this to the losses totaling trillions of US dollars on the stock market and the potential loss exposure of the Japanese banks is staggering. When the bubble in Japan burst and banks were facing massive loan losses and negative growth prospects, a new source of revenue had to be found. This led to a large increase in lending to Southeast Asia which helped fuel a bubble in these economies. In addition, exposure to derivatives increased to trillions of dollars. We have recently seen the bubble burst in South East Asia which will further add to the loan losses that the banks cannot report as they do not have the capital to do so. It is estimated that when the Nikkei dropped below 16,500 many banks' capital fell below the 8% minimum required by Japan's Ministry of Finance. This does not include the losses on loans to the Japanese and Southeast Asia bubbles that are real, just not reported.

When the Japanese bubble burst, the Japanese government began a series of fiscal and monetary stimulation to get the economy restarted. Total government debt rose to between 87% to 89% of GNP at the end of 1996 and could be as high as 97% of GDP by the end of 1997. The government budget deficit has been running over 7% of GDP. Significantly, despite record low interest rates, interest payments now absorb over 60% of total tax revenue. In addition, there is the Japan's Fiscal Investment and Loan Program, a system that draws money from public pension and postal-savings systems and lends to 57 government agencies. Total borrowings are about 374 trillion yen, and when combined with official borrowings could see Japan's debt inflate to 150% of GDP.

Japan's life-insurance industry reportedly holds 25% of the US 12 trillion dollars in household savings. As highlighted by the failure of Nissan Mutual Life Insurance Co., this industry is also in need of a lifeline. When Nissan Mutual collapsed, liabilities exceeded assets to such a degree that the industry's entire 200 billion yen emergency reserve covered only 2/3 of the loss. These companies have promised returns as much as 5.5% while earning only 2.9% on investments in 1996. For 1997, with bond interest rates decreasing and the stock market declining returns on investment will likely fall below 1996 levels.
According to Standard & Poor's, the level at which hidden profits on stock holdings disappear is as follows:

Company Nikkei Company Nikkei
Toho Life 19327 Mitsui Life 17167
Kyoei Life 19006 Dai-Ichi Life 14948
Nippon Dantai 18835 Meiji Life 13181
Chiyoda Life 17876 Nippon Life 12894
Sumitomo Life 17485 Taiyo Life 9757


Despite near invisible interest rates and huge fiscal stimulus programs, the Japanese economy continues to implode, contracting at a rate exceeding 11% in the last reported quarter. Problems will only increase with the financial turmoil in Southeast Asia where 44% of Japanese exports go. The question that no one dares ask is what does the Japanese government do? The economy is imploding, government's direct and indirect debt is 150% of GDP, the government budget deficit is large and unsustainable, and the banks and life insurance companies appear to be insolvent and will need substantial capital infusions to remain viable. The answer is that the Japanese government cannot repay existing loans and that borrowing additional funds to bail out the banks and insurance companies will only speed the road to bankruptcy. The banks are large holders of government debt, and while it could be argued that the government could borrow even more money from the banks and then turn around and give this money back to the banks to improve their equity positions, this simply amounts to transferring debt and does not address the central issue that neither the banks nor the government are financially solvent. In fact we have the situation where an insolvent government is borrowing from insolvent banks who in turn rely on the backing on the insolvent government. Loans now far exceed the capacity of debt repayment, and compounding interest and an imploding economy will seal their fate. Basically, it is simple mathematics. How long will this continue? Like any bankrupt person, until the credit cards are cut off. It is important to realize that this will take much longer than in a normal commercial situation. Japanese banks must be willing purchasers of Japanese government bonds at all times, regardless of fundamentals. Should a government default on its debt, the value of its currency that reflects the credit of the government must approach zero. Currency is simply another unsecured promise to pay, and currency issued by a bankrupt government will have no value. Generally speaking, the bank's assets are financial ( currency based ) and will also fall to zero if the currency collapses. The banking and financial industries are dependent on a functioning government bond market. It is for this reason that governments that are insolvent can continue to borrow. For clarity, let me repeat the initial question.

Since 1990, the world has witnessed a large economic expansion in the US, and explosive growth in Southeast Asia and China. Within Japan, short term interest rates were decreased to 0.5% and the government initiated the largest fiscal stimulus program the world has ever seen. Has anyone questioned why the second largest economy in the world, with all of its major trading partners having sustained growth, with the lowest interest rates the world has ever seen, with the largest fiscal stimulus package the world has ever seen, has not grown and now the economy is contracting at an annual rate exceeding 11%? These are all conditions that over an extended period of time should produce explosive growth, especially in a country like Japan with a hard working, well-educated population with a high level of national savings. The fact that they have not, can only mean that debt levels are so high that they are consuming more than the country can produce. If unreported bad debts at Japanese banks were only say $500 billion US, over the last 7 years, the effect of world-wide growth, 0.5% interest rates, and trillions of US dollars spent on government stimulus programs would have easily solved the problem. The fact that none of these measures has solved the problem can only mean that bad debts are much larger than anyone realizes. Bad debts must total trillions of US dollars.

Over the last several years Southeast Asia and China have expanded manufacturing capacity at a furious rate, much of this financed by debt. Overcapacity is driving down prices, with Asia's export prices falling 4% over the last year. With recent currency depreciation, this trend will likely accelerate. Falling prices mean falling profit margins that further reduce debt payment capacity. Over capacity and high debt have now infected Japan's neighbors. In Korea, company after company has gone bankrupt, threatening the stability of the banks and possibly the entire country. In 1996, net profit at the 30 largest chaebols fell 90%. Due to the size of its economy, should the Korean won continue to fall, it will add to deflationary pressures within China and Japan. The story is the same in almost all countries within the Pacific Rim. Even China is effected with bankrupt state companies and insolvent banks, where 25% of bank loans are non-performing.

Overcapacity financed by debt leads to falling prices that leads to the bankruptcy of first the borrower and then the lender. Problems accelerate when banks make loans on overpriced real estate or for stock market speculation, as income from these assets is often only a fraction of debt service requirements. When the market revalues these assets based on their ability to generate cash flow, losses are huge. When these events occur in countries where governments have borrowed far beyond their capacity to repay, then bond markets and the value of the currency are destroyed.

In China, consumer price inflation is virtually zero, down from 24% three years ago. Japan, Indonesia and Vietnam are similar. Asset values, from real estate to stock markets are in a major deflation.

In the United States, during the last 3 to 4 years, foreigners have purchased over 2 trillion U. S. dollars in debt and shares. These funds have driven up the value of the US dollar in spite of a large current account deficit. They have kept down the level of interest rates, driven the level of the stock exchange to new highs, and propelled the economy to strong growth. Price deflation in Asia and a strong U. S. dollar have kept inflation at a very low level. It has been the best of times for America. Some even call it a paradigm shift.

In equity markets, continual upward revisions of longer term corporate earnings expectations have driven price-earnings ratios to levels not often observed at this stage of economic expansion.

It is difficult to believe that our much higher than expected income tax receipts are unrelated to the huge increase in capital gains which, since 1995 have totaled the equivalent of one-third of national income.

Today's Central Bankers have the capacity of creating or destroying unlimited supplies of money and credit.

Clearly, how well we take our responsibilities in this modern world has profound implications for participants in financial markets.

These are all quotes from Mr. Greenspan, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank. Mr. Greenspan cannot tell us that Asia is insolvent and will collapse. He is giving us a warning that we must heed. Price deflation and a collapsing economy in Asia will decrease US corporate profits. Lower profits and a lower price to earnings multiple will significantly reduce the level of the US stock markets.

The US budget deficit has decreased because of capital gains taxes. When people report capital losses, the budget deficit will balloon. When Asia collapses money and credit will be destroyed. Japanese banks and insurance companies will be forced to sell US assets to help finance losses in Asia. So will the Chinese. For years, China and Japan have exchanged their goods for US paper. When Japan's economy collapses, they will convert this paper into tangible assets.

The US is the largest debtor in the world, much of it owned by foreigners. They have the largest current account deficit in the world. These factors have caused major financial problems for every country where they have existed. When the Japanese are forced to sell US Treasury debt, it will cause a panic out of treasuries that will sharply increase US interest rates. In addition to other factors already mentioned, higher interest rates will accelerate falling US corporate profits, will accelerate the drop in the US stock market and will accelerate a move to a much higher US government budget deficit. When foreigners sell treasuries, Americans must buy them, which will take money out of other economic activities. Future government budget deficits will have to be financed by Americans, and Americans may find that they may not be able to run large current account deficits. When America's banker goes broke, we may see another paradigm shift.

The problems of large debt levels in a deflating economy are very real. Deflation reduces both income and asset values, which leads to the bankruptcy of both borrowers and lenders. Japan has been deflating for the last 7 years. With the rest of Asia also deflating, deflation in Japan can only continue.

Japanese households have about US $12 trillion in savings. The banks have gambled these funds on real estate and stock market speculation, and over-built manufacturing capacity. The government has spent it attempting to kick start the economy. Some day, everyone will realize that the real value of the assets backing these savings is only a small fraction of this US $12 trillion dollars. Already, some of this money has moved to safer destinations like the United States. While the US financial position is much better than Japan's, fundamentals are still very poor and will deteriorate rapidly when Japanese banks and insurance companies are forced to sell US assets. When the Japanese panic in an attempt to preserve their wealth, their only choice will be an asset that is not someone's liability. The asset that best describes this property is gold.

In 1997, the worldwide demand for gold will be the highest in human history, and will far exceed mine production. Yet the price of gold has fallen to 12 year lows. As the world watches the first tremors to the worldwide financial default, speculators are adding to huge short positions. Experts in the financial markets will tell you that gold has lost its monetary value and there is the continual threat of Central Bank selling. Central bankers in Australia and Switzerland claim that gold is no longer a suitable investment. Australia's actions appear totally unreasonable. Gold is a major employer and export earner for Australia. Even if it were true, why would you tell the world that it has little value? The funds obtained from the gold sale have now been lent to Thailand and Indonesia? Are loans to bail out bankrupt countries a more suitable investment than gold? Even the Swiss announcement appears to be more geared to lowering the price of gold than maximizing the price of an asset you may wish to sell. Gold has nothing to do with the trillions of dollars in bank loans outstanding that are not supported by either the income or assets of the borrower. It has nothing to do with the trillions of dollars in government bonds that are supported by no assets and which interest costs now take up large amounts of government tax receipts. The only thing holding worldwide financial markets together is confidence. Confidence that governments and bankers will not let things get out of hand. Confidence that requires the price of gold to remain low.

Yet all of the confidence one can have does not change the fact that the direct and indirect liabilities of the Japanese government total about 150% of GDP, it does not change the fact that liabilities at Japanese banks and insurance companies likely exceed realizable assets by trillions of US dollars, it does not change the fact that the Japanese economy is contracting, and does not change the fact that Japan and Asia are deflating at an accelerating rate. Some may say these problems are manageable. I would only ask, How? In the end, finance comes down to simple mathematics, nothing more nothing less.

A little over 300 billion US dollars buys every once of gold in every central bank in the world. When Japan crashes, none of this will be for sale. Gold miners have sold forward about two years production and speculators hold large short positions. How high does the price go when the US $12 trillion in household savings starts chasing an asset there is so little of?








Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:53
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Selby: The U.S. dollar is currently the world reserve currency of choice. I think mostly out of habit, but most world trade is done in dollars. The failure of the U.S. dollar would/will, quite literally, result in diminished world trade and a reduction in living standards worldwide.

The issue is not just Japan, but world trade in general. If it is to continue at the level of the present day then there must be a medium of exchange ready to fill the void after the dollar collapse.

Should Japan sell their U.S. bonds for gold that would not be enough because the collapse of the dollar will leave all currencies suspect. Japan would need to use their gold to back the yen. Additionally, they would need to provide for full and unconditional exchangeability with gold for yen holders.

Any nation, or as SDRer suggests, any international public or private body who can control enough gold to pull it off will suffice.


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:52
Shek home>(home) ID#287279:
tolerant1,
i think that everyone has read the us constitution, studied it in h.s. civics class, knows that only gold is supposed to be a legal tender, and? so what! 90% of people in the us dont care whether paper or gold is legal tender as long as they have food, beer and TV.
and so it is everywhere. name a country. Australia, Vietnam, Pakistan, Mexico, Belgium. everywhere people do as they are told even if they know better. goldbugs represent at best 5% of population and we dont have the power to change the financial system.
the constitution also guarantees us free speech and gun ownership. dont you see what is happening to these constitution guaranteed rights?
japan will not start buying gold because that would destroy the world financial system, they will not be allowed to do that. lets not be naive.
remmember how fast hashimoto appologized for his remark?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:52
FOKO friend of Kitco Operative>(friend of Kitco Operative) ID#33557:
This is an urgent message for KO associates. He says it is imperative that they realise they are close to uncovering details of events
which will have dramatic world wide significance. Covert operation
against him, by unspecified personnel, has prevented him from making
contact before now. Pandoras Box will be opened soon.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:50
tk okorondy>(okorondy) ID#369198:

Thank you, thank you for posting John K.'s article again.
Could we all make a solemn vow right here and right
now to post this classic every day in all six time slots
so we don't have to go searching for it?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:47
korondy @NJ>(@NJ) ID#222186:
The Peter Lynch article in Worth Magazine mentioned by NJ can be found at
http://www.worth.com/articles/Z9711E01.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:46
tj to Dave INCO>(to Dave INCO) ID#369177:

Dave INCO - I think LGB was misquoted. What he meant to say
was that your figures were low, that 100% of all mutual fund
investors expected 243% return on their investments every six
months and that 100% of them thought their funds were FDIC
insured.

Dave INCO, I'm not sure why you keep pounding out the
same note on the INCO piano. What the f--- difference
does it make how many people think what? Using your
numbers and Harris polls, more people believe in UFO's than
believe their mutual funds are goverment insured. You
are providing no breakdown of how many people who
have over 100K in mutual funds think they are government
insured. Would this number be 25%?

Dave - Stock market didn't crash today, but through
your continuing efforts, 1 out of 4 people reading
your posts are learning that their mutual funds are
not government insured, which makes the chance
of a crash even less imminent, since they will
now say, oh, glad I learned that and LEAVE THEM
IN THERE ANYWAY. What else should they
go into, those stupid morons, something they
automatically are guaranteed of losing money
on right away like gold?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:42
Johnnydoright What?not me>(What?not me) ID#25178:
It appears to me that the majority of people posting on this site, would
be quite happy to see some major world event take place. The impression
I get is that it doesn't seem to matter too much exactly what it is ( countries
bankrupt,war,famine,blood in the streets ) as long as it drives the price of
gold up.
Talk about sickos on the net, and everybody thinks porn.
They should visit this site.
Honestly how can some of you sleep at night?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:41
korondy JohnK_Posting@Repeat>(JohnK_Posting@Repeat) ID#222186:
Currency Chaos and Financial Collapse

To understand the world financial situation is to understand the difference between reality and illusions of reality. It is to understand that the basis of all financial failures is the inability to pay debt. Debt is repaid from income or profits. When income or profits are insufficient to repay debts, default occurs. occasionally, new debts are provided to repay old debts, but this will only increase total debts and future losses.

Since 1990, the world has witnessed a large economic expansion in the US, and explosive growth in Southeast Asia and China. Within Japan, short term interest rates were decreased to 0.5% and the government initiated the largest fiscal stimulus program the world has ever seen. Has anyone questioned why the second largest economy in the world, with all of its major trading partners having sustained growth, with the lowest interest rates the world has ever seen, with the largest fiscal stimulus package the world has ever seen, has not grown and now the economy is contracting at an annual rate exceeding 11% ?

To begin to answer this question, one must return to pre-bubble Japan, when the Nikkei was near 40, 000 when land values at Ohtemachi and Toranomon in central Tokyo would have bought all of Canada or all of California, and when Tokyo was worth more than the United States. On the basis of these valuations, the Japanese Banks, making them some of the largest corporations in the world, lent trillions of dollars. These loans were not supported by the income of the borrowers, but by the assets they pledged for security. Today, the Nikkei is below 16, 500 and dropping, and commercial land prices are down 70% and dropping. The loans are still outstanding, but with borrowers unable to repay loans from income and realizable asset values far below loan values, these loans remain on the books as the losses on these loans likely far exceed the banks' capital. The size of total losses is unknown. However, during November/95, Japan's finance ministry announced that non-performing loans at the Osaka based Kizu credit co-operative were 960 billion yen representing more than 70% of total loans. A further 230 billion yen were thought to be doubtful leaving less than 10% of Kizu's loans as performing assets. Does this tell us anything about how the balance sheets of the large banks really look? The loss of net worth represented by the collapse of the Japanese stock and real estate markets represents many trillions of US dollars. At the height of the bubble, Japanese land values were estimated to be between 16 to 20 trillion US dollars. A 70% decline represents a $11 to $14 trillion dollar loss in the real estate market alone. When the banks start selling real estate to repay bank loans, look for the market to drop even further. Add this to the losses totaling trillions of US dollars on the stock market and the potential loss exposure of the Japanese banks is staggering. When the bubble in Japan burst and banks were facing massive loan losses and negative growth prospects, a new source of revenue had to be found. This led to a large increase in lending to Southeast Asia which helped fuel a bubble in these economies. In addition, exposure to derivatives increased to trillions of dollars. We have recently seen the bubble burst in South East Asia which will further add to the loan losses that the banks cannot report as they do not have the capital to do so. It is estimated that when the Nikkei dropped below 16,500 many banks' capital fell below the 8% minimum required by Japan's Ministry of Finance. This does not include the losses on loans to the Japanese and Southeast Asia bubbles that are real, just not reported.

When the Japanese bubble burst, the Japanese government began a series of fiscal and monetary stimulation to get the economy restarted. Total government debt rose to between 87% to 89% of GNP at the end of 1996 and could be as high as 97% of GDP by the end of 1997. The government budget deficit has been running over 7% of GDP. Significantly, despite record low interest rates, interest payments now absorb over 60% of total tax revenue. In addition, there is the Japan's Fiscal Investment and Loan Program, a system that draws money from public pension and postal-savings systems and lends to 57 government agencies. Total borrowings are about 374 trillion yen, and when combined with official borrowings could see Japan's debt inflate to 150% of GDP.

Japan's life-insurance industry reportedly holds 25% of the US 12 trillion dollars in household savings. As highlighted by the failure of Nissan Mutual Life Insurance Co., this industry is also in need of a lifeline. When Nissan Mutual collapsed, liabilities exceeded assets to such a degree that the industry's entire 200 billion yen emergency reserve covered only 2/3 of the loss. These companies have promised returns as much as 5.5% while earning only 2.9% on investments in 1996. For 1997, with bond interest rates decreasing and the stock market declining returns on investment will likely fall below 1996 levels.
According to Standard & Poor's, the level at which hidden profits on stock holdings disappear is as follows:

Company Nikkei Company Nikkei
Toho Life 19327 Mitsui Life 17167
Kyoei Life 19006 Dai-Ichi Life 14948
Nippon Dantai 18835 Meiji Life 13181
Chiyoda Life 17876 Nippon Life 12894
Sumitomo Life 17485 Taiyo Life 9757


Despite near invisible interest rates and huge fiscal stimulus programs, the Japanese economy continues to implode, contracting at a rate exceeding 11% in the last reported quarter. Problems will only increase with the financial turmoil in Southeast Asia where 44% of Japanese exports go. The question that no one dares ask is what does the Japanese government do? The economy is imploding, government's direct and indirect debt is 150% of GDP, the government budget deficit is large and unsustainable, and the banks and life insurance companies appear to be insolvent and will need substantial capital infusions to remain viable. The answer is that the Japanese government cannot repay existing loans and that borrowing additional funds to bail out the banks and insurance companies will only speed the road to bankruptcy. The banks are large holders of government debt, and while it could be argued that the government could borrow even more money from the banks and then turn around and give this money back to the banks to improve their equity positions, this simply amounts to transferring debt and does not address the central issue that neither the banks nor the government are financially solvent. In fact we have the situation where an insolvent government is borrowing from insolvent banks who in turn rely on the backing on the insolvent government. Loans now far exceed the capacity of debt repayment, and compounding interest and an imploding economy will seal their fate. Basically, it is simple mathematics. How long will this continue? Like any bankrupt person, until the credit cards are cut off. It is important to realize that this will take much longer than in a normal commercial situation. Japanese banks must be willing purchasers of Japanese government bonds at all times, regardless of fundamentals. Should a government default on its debt, the value of its currency that reflects the credit of the government must approach zero. Currency is simply another unsecured promise to pay, and currency issued by a bankrupt government will have no value. Generally speaking, the bank's assets are financial ( currency based ) and will also fall to zero if the currency collapses. The banking and financial industries are dependent on a functioning government bond market. It is for this reason that governments that are insolvent can continue to borrow. For clarity, let me repeat the initial question.

Since 1990, the world has witnessed a large economic expansion in the US, and explosive growth in Southeast Asia and China. Within Japan, short term interest rates were decreased to 0.5% and the government initiated the largest fiscal stimulus program the world has ever seen. Has anyone questioned why the second largest economy in the world, with all of its major trading partners having sustained growth, with the lowest interest rates the world has ever seen, with the largest fiscal stimulus package the world has ever seen, has not grown and now the economy is contracting at an annual rate exceeding 11%? These are all conditions that over an extended period of time should produce explosive growth, especially in a country like Japan with a hard working, well-educated population with a high level of national savings. The fact that they have not, can only mean that debt levels are so high that they are consuming more than the country can produce. If unreported bad debts at Japanese banks were only say $500 billion US, over the last 7 years, the effect of world-wide growth, 0.5% interest rates, and trillions of US dollars spent on government stimulus programs would have easily solved the problem. The fact that none of these measures has solved the problem can only mean that bad debts are much larger than anyone realizes. Bad debts must total trillions of US dollars.

Over the last several years Southeast Asia and China have expanded manufacturing capacity at a furious rate, much of this financed by debt. Overcapacity is driving down prices, with Asia's export prices falling 4% over the last year. With recent currency depreciation, this trend will likely accelerate. Falling prices mean falling profit margins that further reduce debt payment capacity. Over capacity and high debt have now infected Japan's neighbors. In Korea, company after company has gone bankrupt, threatening the stability of the banks and possibly the entire country. In 1996, net profit at the 30 largest chaebols fell 90%. Due to the size of its economy, should the Korean won continue to fall, it will add to deflationary pressures within China and Japan. The story is the same in almost all countries within the Pacific Rim. Even China is effected with bankrupt state companies and insolvent banks, where 25% of bank loans are non-performing.

Overcapacity financed by debt leads to falling prices that leads to the bankruptcy of first the borrower and then the lender. Problems accelerate when banks make loans on overpriced real estate or for stock market speculation, as income from these assets is often only a fraction of debt service requirements. When the market revalues these assets based on their ability to generate cash flow, losses are huge. When these events occur in countries where governments have borrowed far beyond their capacity to repay, then bond markets and the value of the currency are destroyed.

In China, consumer price inflation is virtually zero, down from 24% three years ago. Japan, Indonesia and Vietnam are similar. Asset values, from real estate to stock markets are in a major deflation.

In the United States, during the last 3 to 4 years, foreigners have purchased over 2 trillion U. S. dollars in debt and shares. These funds have driven up the value of the US dollar in spite of a large current account deficit. They have kept down the level of interest rates, driven the level of the stock exchange to new highs, and propelled the economy to strong growth. Price deflation in Asia and a strong U. S. dollar have kept inflation at a very low level. It has been the best of times for America. Some even call it a paradigm shift.

In equity markets, continual upward revisions of longer term corporate earnings expectations have driven price-earnings ratios to levels not often observed at this stage of economic expansion.

It is difficult to believe that our much higher than expected income tax receipts are unrelated to the huge increase in capital gains which, since 1995 have totaled the equivalent of one-third of national income.

Today's Central Bankers have the capacity of creating or destroying unlimited supplies of money and credit.

Clearly, how well we take our responsibilities in this modern world has profound implications for participants in financial markets.

These are all quotes from Mr. Greenspan, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank. Mr. Greenspan cannot tell us that Asia is insolvent and will collapse. He is giving us a warning that we must heed. Price deflation and a collapsing economy in Asia will decrease US corporate profits. Lower profits and a lower price to earnings multiple will significantly reduce the level of the US stock markets.

The US budget deficit has decreased because of capital gains taxes. When people report capital losses, the budget deficit will balloon. When Asia collapses money and credit will be destroyed. Japanese banks and insurance companies will be forced to sell US assets to help finance losses in Asia. So will the Chinese. For years, China and Japan have exchanged their goods for US paper. When Japan's economy collapses, they will convert this paper into tangible assets.

The US is the largest debtor in the world, much of it owned by foreigners. They have the largest current account deficit in the world. These factors have caused major financial problems for every country where they have existed. When the Japanese are forced to sell US Treasury debt, it will cause a panic out of treasuries that will sharply increase US interest rates. In addition to other factors already mentioned, higher interest rates will accelerate falling US corporate profits, will accelerate the drop in the US stock market and will accelerate a move to a much higher US government budget deficit. When foreigners sell treasuries, Americans must buy them, which will take money out of other economic activities. Future government budget deficits will have to be financed by Americans, and Americans may find that they may not be able to run large current account deficits. When America's banker goes broke, we may see another paradigm shift.

The problems of large debt levels in a deflating economy are very real. Deflation reduces both income and asset values, which leads to the bankruptcy of both borrowers and lenders. Japan has been deflating for the last 7 years. With the rest of Asia also deflating, deflation in Japan can only continue.

Japanese households have about US $12 trillion in savings. The banks have gambled these funds on real estate and stock market speculation, and over-built manufacturing capacity. The government has spent it attempting to kick start the economy. Some day, everyone will realize that the real value of the assets backing these savings is only a small fraction of this US $12 trillion dollars. Already, some of this money has moved to safer destinations like the United States. While the US financial position is much better than Japan's, fundamentals are still very poor and will deteriorate rapidly when Japanese banks and insurance companies are forced to sell US assets. When the Japanese panic in an attempt to preserve their wealth, their only choice will be an asset that is not someone's liability. The asset that best describes this property is gold.

In 1997, the worldwide demand for gold will be the highest in human history, and will far exceed mine production. Yet the price of gold has fallen to 12 year lows. As the world watches the first tremors to the worldwide financial default, speculators are adding to huge short positions. Experts in the financial markets will tell you that gold has lost its monetary value and there is the continual threat of Central Bank selling. Central bankers in Australia and Switzerland claim that gold is no longer a suitable investment. Australia's actions appear totally unreasonable. Gold is a major employer and export earner for Australia. Even if it were true, why would you tell the world that it has little value? The funds obtained from the gold sale have now been lent to Thailand and Indonesia? Are loans to bail out bankrupt countries a more suitable investment than gold? Even the Swiss announcement appears to be more geared to lowering the price of gold than maximizing the price of an asset you may wish to sell. Gold has nothing to do with the trillions of dollars in bank loans outstanding that are not supported by either the income or assets of the borrower. It has nothing to do with the trillions of dollars in government bonds that are supported by no assets and which interest costs now take up large amounts of government tax receipts. The only thing holding worldwide financial markets together is confidence. Confidence that governments and bankers will not let things get out of hand. Confidence that requires the price of gold to remain low.

Yet all of the confidence one can have does not change the fact that the direct and indirect liabilities of the Japanese government total about 150% of GDP, it does not change the fact that liabilities at Japanese banks and insurance companies likely exceed realizable assets by trillions of US dollars, it does not change the fact that the Japanese economy is contracting, and does not change the fact that Japan and Asia are deflating at an accelerating rate. Some may say these problems are manageable. I would only ask, How? In the end, finance comes down to simple mathematics, nothing more nothing less.

A little over 300 billion US dollars buys every once of gold in every central bank in the world. When Japan crashes, none of this will be for sale. Gold miners have sold forward about two years production and speculators hold large short positions. How high does the price go when the US $12 trillion in household savings starts chasing an asset there is so little of?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:40
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
Shek: In the United States money is not what the government says it is. Read the Constitution.

Believe me, the coming clanking will change governments, the Chinese are going to need their 120 standing army to contain their own people. The US Goverment may not survive in it's current form.

Make no mistake, when the lies, the shell game, and the illegal printing of trillions is made known, politicians and economists alike that spout the new paradigm shift will be hard to find.

Sort of like the end of WWII when you could not find Germans in Germany, but there were a whole lotta extra Austrians walking around.


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:37
ti tahi>(tahi) ID#369348:

NJ - Lynch's article has already been posted here in full.

Could someone please repost John K.'s analysis again? I have trouble accessing the original and cannot seem to find any of the six reposts of his report over the last three days.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:35
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Virginia: You said: Ok, so if there is deflation gold goes _____ stocks go_________bonds go up ( I
think ) . The best place to put money is __________. Someone fill blanks.


I will assume you are U.S.

Ok, so if there is deflation gold goes up in purchasing power stocks go down in purchasing power, bonds go up ( until the deflation is over, then go down ( I
think ) . The best place to put money is 90 day T-Bills until you feel gold has bottomed. Someone fill blanks.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:33
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
Selby: At present YOU can go and trade paper for hard items as you state in your previous post. Let's be clear on the following point.

Japan is holding a huge amount of PROMISE PAPER from the US government.

Gold is NOT A PROMISE from anybody.

The US is in a position to go from one of power to pee-on in nothing flat.
It is that simple.

The US has become the greatest paper tiger in the history of mankind. And it is the single greatest debtor nation in the history of mankind.

The paper charade cannot go on forever. And when the music stops Japan does not want a handful of promises.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:33
Dave in CO @LGB, etc.>(@LGB, etc.) ID#215211:
LGB, etc.:

Please repeat your statement of a few days ago that the average mutual fund investor expects only 8% returns per year. You stated that, because of this low expectation, they would not massively redeem their holdings in a bear market/crash.

I, and some other posters, stated that the average mutual fund investor expects 34% per year and 25% of those investors believe that their mutual funds are government insured.

Yes, LGB, etc., we really need your informed advice/CNBC rhetoric.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:29
NJ Peter Lynch>(Peter Lynch) ID#352177:
November issue of Worth magazine carries an article by Peter Lynch recommending gold stocks. He says, in a similar recommendation made by him in 1995, he got the demand side correct but was thrown off on the supply side due to the accelerated selling by central banks. Stocks mentioned are ABX, PDG, MDG and CRRS. Lengthy article, which I cannot reproduce, but worth a read.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:25
Selby Toronto>(Toronto) ID#287207:
Donald: Gotta go for a few hours but have to leave the following question. How will selling US debt and buying gold help Japan--government and/or citizens --out of the current situation? Talk to you later.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:25
Shek home>(home) ID#287279:
tolerant1,
money is whatever strong governments decide. in 1934 the us government decided that paper not gold is money, and because it benefited and still benefits so many people, paper is money. what will change it? an event that will weaken the governments of the world. a mere market declines and even crashes will not change it.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:23
mooney* moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com) ID#345165:

Answer: Yes.

Cheryl, where are yooooouuuuuuu?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:22
th as in that's all, folks>(as in that's all, folks) ID#369327:

I'll check back in tomorrow. Any comments from
anyone from here on out will be faux cat -
not me but those who have been 'deputized' to spread
the word by proxy.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:21
JTF @after_the_turning_point>(@after_the_turning_point) ID#57232:
Donald: Any info on Hong Kong? One bank run often leads to another. I don't know how important that IBA bank is. If that was HSBC, I would be looking for the storm shelter! It does worry me that Hong Kong, that bastion of free enterprise, is that uneasy.
I guess if Rud. D. makes another bad pronouncement about SE Asia, the gig is up. His comments always seem to preceed bad news.
By the way, come to any decisions about Rydex URSA?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:20
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Selby: Thanks. I want to get this right too. Let me expand on your comment that Japan is in trouble.

As in the 30's here in North America Japanese banks, insurance companies and debtors in general are in trouble. The Japanese government however is not in serious trouble. They have 1/3 trillion in reserve. As a government they are in a situation not unlike the U.S. government in the 30's. They will get in trouble if the try to bail out the big corporations. They should let them fail and save the country, as the U.S. did in the 30's. They are at that decision point now. If they let them fail there will be massive unemployment in Japan, many years of hard times, but the country is likely to survive and prosper in the future. Failure is contrary to their culture and I am not sure what road they will take.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:11
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
te: Just think how creative you could be if you took all that energy you just used testing the variety of your ID#'s, and explained to us why gold will go down, or how long it will go down.
All I have is that I hope we will learn from the precious metals floor traders when to buy -- do you have something else?
How about focusing your intellect!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:11
tg 288000, why don't you ask Peutz for some cash?>(288000, why don't you ask Peutz for some cash?) ID#369357:

He's got a lot, and it's just a foul representation of everything
he hates where he lives anyway. Congratulations on your
successful trades. At least someone at this site is honest
with how much money they are making in this bear market.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:10
Selby Toronto>(Toronto) ID#287207:
tolerant1: I understand your view that the US dollar has no value but you will have to agree, I think, that the vast majority of the world thinks that it does. My C$ is worth about .7U$ and in about an hour I'm going to make about 100 and spend about 40 before I get back for all sorts of things with intrinsic value. The lack of value of the U$ is not playing a part in my life or Japans problem at the moment. If it was then all world economies would be in decline--they aren't.

My original question--why would Japan get rid of US debt and buy gold is not an idle pursuit. If there is a reason that is currently operative I'd like it expanded upon here to show why the Japanese would do such a thing today or in a few weeks.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:08
tf Selby, I kind of appreciate what you're doing>(Selby, I kind of appreciate what you're doing) ID#369264:

But at the same time I want to stay Stop pretending

The voice of reason you use when you pose your
questions is a little bit patronizing, because you
don't let the responses you get change your bedrock
beliefs anyway ( which is wise ) and, ultimately
you aren't going to change any fossilized
beliefs at this site using your methods versus a more
combative approach. But of course, the
site is more sanitary your way.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:06
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Aurator: I went to the Comptroller site but could not find the reference to 10/27/77. Perhaps when the gold clause was re-established it was improperly written in a way that would re-activate old contracts from the 30's? Just a guess.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 17:00
td which reminds me, the Earl Grey cup is coming up again>(which reminds me, the Earl Grey cup is coming up again) ID#369195:

Some of the less misguided people on this site express a
desire for differing opinions so they can sharpen their
own thinking skills. Notice, they never say, so they
can examine whether the path they are on is the correct
one or the incorrect one. They treat differing opinions
as trivial little annoyances that they can bat away to
keep sharp, stay on top of their game.

I question myself every day. I question how long gold
can continue to slide. I listen, filter, reassess every day.
I constantly ask myself: Am I right to keep pounding
this message in at a sight where I am clearly despised,
hated, ignored, belittled? And then I look at the
price of gold, and this provides my sole comfort,
the only answer I need.

Oh, I also look at the check I get every month
from the syndicate to harangue Kitco regulars and
chase them away.

This

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:59
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
TC: Ruin what. What is it?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:58
288000 voice@wilderness>(voice@wilderness) ID#264415:

Hi, All: I am a new immigrant from Taiwan. If you had visited my website,
you must have despised my poor English.
Remember me? I have two posts before:

Date: Thu Oct 30 1997 20:31
288000 ( Voice@Wilderness ) ID#265452:
I am a kitco lurker and enjoying all your postings, but have nothing
to offer because I am a Chinese, not good at English.
However, my thought and my heart went with Goldbugs.
I have some unusual knowledge about the Bible and God, and hope to
share with you guys.
That is a free book called Modern Scientific Genesis of Bible.

http://members.tripod.com/~neocosmo/

Date: Fri Oct 31 1997 17:23
288000 ( voice@wilderness ) ID#265452:
I was attracted by the July news that gold broke 12 years low. Then,
I opened an internet trade account and start lurking kitco.
Last thursday night ( Oct 23 ) , I stood in one GC7Z GTC order
311.6, 13.1 bucks away from 324.7 because I didn't really want to
buy it but to watch if there is a tsunami that can swallow me in.
Then, I got caught with a better price 310.5 but higher than
friday's bottom 308.3, and I deemed it as my Lord suffer me into
this troubled market that was
heavily manip by His angels.
Now, I have to prepare 31000 in cash to have it delivered by DEC if
His other angels do not drive gold with another enormous Tsunami up.
.........

Today, not a huge Tsunami, I chickened out, have sold my precious at 314.00 and closed my position.
This is my second trade, with $350 profit, My first trade was on Oct 9th,
bought at 327.5 and sold at 329.3, with $180 profit.

In my heart I know Gold is cheap, beautiful and immortal, and really
enjoyed and comforted by Puetz, JTF, Allen, Jin, Nick, Donald, Vronsky,... and ALL Kitcoites.
But, to fight with those bear angels is scary with measle $3000 account.
In those scary days, thanks to Kitcoites helping me went though this
scary death valley.
As a new trader, I deemed this battle with those angels is a good fight.
I know Gold will go up eventually, but I have to be safe first in order
to fight again later.

After studying Bible diligently in a unusual way, I see all markets are
battle fields where we fight with those intelligent spiritual beings, the angels, not the flesh and blood human beings, but the invisible beings.
BUT THE NATURAL MAN RECEIVETH NOT THE SPIRITUAL THINGS BECAUSE THEY ARE
SPIRITUALLY DISCERNED. ( 1 Corin 2:14 )

By this teaching, when we enter into any market, we should be very
careful about those spiritual beings, for they have no mercy when they
got the chance to make anyone bankrupt!
They angels knew the Lord loves human seeds, so they always accuse human
seeds greedy or corrupt in front of the Lord!

Anyone knows what I am saying? It is in my website the story about those
angels that I want to share with Kitcoites.
Except the knowledge from Bible, I also need the knowledge from you guys.
Anyway, I am relieved for now! Happy trading!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:56
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
The fact of the matter will remain this. US paper has no value. Plain and simple. Japan has no option but to get rid of paper and purchase gold.

In the last analysis gold is money and does not require anyone's backing. Clearly this will be seen soon.

Selby this was in no way geared to your ongoing quest to decipher the markets and some of the theories and such. In fact you have provided some excellent commentary on the Japan predicament.



Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:54
Selby Toronto>(Toronto) ID#287207:
Donald: Thanks for your response. You provide a good reason for anyone to dump the US dollar if certain nasty possibilities look likely. But the Japan question is turning on Japan's problems as well of course as the rest of SE Asia's formerly booming economies. Japan isn't in trouble because they or very many other people think the US dollar is in trouble. It is the continuation and exacerbation of Japan's problems that are underway at the moment.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:49
tc not tlc>(not tlc) ID#369267:

USA TODAY had an article today about how no school won
their Best College Fight Song competition because some
morons cast multiple, multiple votes. ( One guy from Michigan
cast 60,000 in six hours. Is this even possible? ) There is
a column by Douglas Hofsteder in Scientific American from
probably 10 years ago now where he analyses just this anti-
philanthropic effect, how the few will invariably ruin it for
the many. Kind of makes me wonder if the few deviants
we have at this site - Kevan, Nick, JTF, Stephen - shouldn't
have their memberships re-examined.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:47
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Selby: Japan, bonds and gold. If Japan feels that the purchasing power of the U.S. Treasury bonds that it holds are in jeopardy it would be wise to purchase gold, something that has held its purchasing power or increased in purchasing power as it did for a time during the 1979-1981 period.

A stock market implosion and deflation that would impair the ability of those borrowers who have government guarantees on their debt might convince Japan and other foreign CB's to sell bonds. In that environment the U.S. government would be faced with reduced tax collections at a time when it was being called upon to honor its written guarantees such as SBA loans, veterans mortgages, student loans, ExIm Bank loans and so forth.

Foreign CB's and other holders of government debt, in anticipation of U.S. monetary expansion, would likely seek safety in gold. That is the basis for my own long term forecast. A period of one or two years of deflation followed by monetary inflation. I would only revise that forecast should the U.S. dollar be returned to gold backing.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:45
7 ball @ boy wonder>(@ boy wonder) ID#427126:
te-suggest your problems commenced when your mother took away your pet
rooster. Can't help but say-you sure like attention. Stomp your feet
little one, someone will listen-like me!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:44
tb consumption>(consumption) ID#369186:

Charlotte Bronte's two older sisters died of it, or something

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:43
rmw @the.hop>(@the.hop) ID#402309:
Bravo George. Geesh!! I think gold WILL test new lows because all of the buyers who anted up @ 313+ today just watched a sale occur on their dime. New buyers would be foolish to think it won't happen again.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:43
ta @perseat>(@perseat) ID#369180:

JTF - when is your next post from ANOTHER?
I am basing all of my shorting on him, if you know what I mean.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:38
t e the boy wonder>(the boy wonder) ID#369132:

for all of you who said a premature goodbye to LGB -
I never read anywhere in his post that he was never
coming back. I understood his post to mean that he
was through bothering with Peutz's anomie and
anarchic narcissism. Peutz is beyond hope, and
as just a simple example, someone who professes
no allegiance to the country which delivers his
newsletters faithfully for him is not only overweening
but bound to get what he deserves. I'm glad the
USPS doesn't hold grudges when things don't
go their way.


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:31
teb the wonder boy>(the wonder boy) ID#369153:

Is it clear to everyone what the close of today's market action
indicated? Buying.

I think all of you who WANT the stock market to crash should
not infuse your desires into your analyses. Furthermore, I
think you should all look at Delphi's chart a little more closely
before your longing for a imminent rush to Dow death is
vocalized so strongly.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:28
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
XAU/Spot Ratio = .261

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:26
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Dow/Gold Ratio = 24.38

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:23
et bare bottoms>(bare bottoms) ID#225297:

George - Congratulations on predicting every day for the last
month that a rally was imminent and finally getting it right today.
Of course, I now see you are couching all predictions with
a disclaimer, which is wise, since gold is going to $300 soon,
very soon. Whether you recognize this change in your posting
style or not, the air really got taken out of you from the beginning of the
year until now, didn't it? Hesitation kills, George. Are you afraid
you're going to miss it like all the others? Then keep predicting
day after day after day after day after day after day after day after day.

Stephen - A simple question. Did you or did you not post
under something other than Stephen Mooney in September
or October at this site?

I'm sure the newcomers here would appreciate an honest answer.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:18
teCarl @home>(@home) ID#363104:
nice work

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:16
Robert @Atlanta>(@Atlanta) ID#403216:
Virginia...Gold goes down then UP
Stocks go DOWN
Bonds go up then DOWN
Best place for cash T Bills

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:15
te hello from Searle Sennett over on SI>(hello from Searle Sennett over on SI) ID#369153:

Bart can chase the bears away from his site as much as he pleases but, regrettably, he will not help the gold price one iota. I would have thought that by now people would have learned that the false-prophets and misguided bulls there ( and I admit that I have been one ) completely mis-assessed the bear market and must, in fact, have caused many to lose a great deal of money. Still, as they say, one is born every minute. Or, even more appropriately --- a fool and his money are soon parted.



Newcomers, take note

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:15
George Cole bear bottoms>(bear bottoms) ID#42953:
Bear markets typically end when the news and the market action have been so bad for so long that the vast majority give up hope that things will ever improve. Just as stock bears usually end near the bottom of recessions, so will the gold bear trough when concern about deflation and CB sales are at maximum intensity.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:11
testosterone and estrogen>(and estrogen) ID#369153:

finished

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:09
TE burma shave>(burma shave) ID#369153:

there are a lot of negative controls left, but
I'm about through

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:08
te it just goes to show>(it just goes to show) ID#369153:

the more things change, the more they stay the same

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:08
te rhythm nation>(rhythm nation) ID#369153:

still

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:07
slick PrivateInvestor>(PrivateInvestor) ID#93177:
Did Biggs Say anything as far as the timing of this derivative
caused worldwide economic implosion What will the catalyst be?
Thanks.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:07
tess rhythm nation>(rhythm nation) ID#369153:

completely different

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:06
test rhythm nation>(rhythm nation) ID#369153:

for something

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:05
tess algorithm>(algorithm) ID#369153:

but now

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:02
TEST algorithm>(algorithm) ID#369153:

underway

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:02
te algorithm>(algorithm) ID#369153:
same drill

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:01
test algorithm>(algorithm) ID#369153:

different computer

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 16:00
Selby Toronto>(Toronto) ID#287207:
I have read Oracle's papers on vronsky's site and understand that Japan is in big trouble. I do not understand why they will buy gold if the bottom finally drops out at 14,000. I understand ( but do not necessarily agree with ) the various rationals for gold being a good investment but not why Japan will sell its US debt which is as good or better than gold at the moment and then start buying gold and immediately raise the price by Japan's own efforts. If they can not make it with interest bearing investments how are they better off with a non interest bearing commodity that is currently continuing a 20+ year decline in price?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 15:56
cherokee @looking-for-a-buy-on-wheat-------->(@looking-for-a-buy-on-wheat--------) ID#344308:
nick@1516---

the action now, as shortly before the crash of '29,
is selling. the under-current of selling has shown a shift in
the psyche of investors, and this change will create changes
in their vehicles for investment.

buy low sell high........THE 1st and only commandment for ALL investors.

what are some of the LOW markets that offer security?

patience and planning will pay off bigger than you can imagine.
physicals and options---------

one day.......

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 15:48
vronsky JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK & HONK KONG BANKS >(JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK & HONK KONG BANKS ) ID#426220:
Massive currencies devaluations and stock market crashes! Absolute financial chaos reigns in South East Asia - This is spilling over into Japan, Australia, Europe and the US of A. Furthermore, Japanese Banks have accounted for 90% of foreign bank lending in Hong Kong. Not surprisingly in the morning of November 10th, there began a run on a Hong Kong bank... this could become contagious across Asia. Hong Kong is known for having the strongest banks in Asia. SO if there are runs on Hong Kong banks, then we can only imagine what will happen elsewhere... and the consequential ramifications for all the economies in Asia - and eventually the rest of the world.

A Financial Tsunami is Looming in Land of SETTING Sun. What inevitably follows will be the total collapse of their banking system. Japan will indeed be forced to dump US T-Bonds in order to defend the home economy. Subsequently, they will buy gold as they fight for economic and financial survival - evaluate for yourself:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle1106.html


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 15:48
Joe @-30 below>(@-30 below) ID#25178:
Can't get into my favourite site for getting quotes on the TSE . ( Investcom
at Toronto ) . Anyone out there have another address I could use for
same purpose? THANKS.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 15:48
Carl @home>(@home) ID#333131:
SDRer, More on the academic types. Marina Von Neuman Whitman, don't know her age but first published in 1959. Was obviously at Princeton before Michigan from the fact that Princeton University Press published her early and other internal stuff. By the way, given her origins and the Von Neuman, I can't help but think she's the daughter of the great mathematician and first builder of a programmable electronic digital computer at Princeton School for Advanced Study. U of Michigan library lists 7 books starting with United States Investment Guaranty Program and Private Foreign Investment ( 1959 ) . to Unemployment and Growth in the Western Economies ( 1984 ) . Perhaps the most intriguing is International Trade and Investment, Two Perspectives ( 1981 ) .

Sylvia Ostry, born 1927, and has published a lot. 15 entries at U of M library, but guess what. The post-cold war trading system, Who's On First? 1997 published by U of Chicago Press. And Techno-nationalism and techno-globalism: conflict and cooperation ( 1995 ) published by Brookings Institution. ( This lady is wired into conservative monetary bastions. ) She also did The Halifax G-7 Summit: issues on the table ( 1995 ) published by Dalhousie U Centre for Foreign Policy Studies.
Hope this is of some help in discerning a picture.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 15:46
AlKahulik http://idt.net/~kulick>(http://idt.net/~kulick) ID#256264:
Private: You are correct, that is providing that govt's
do not decide to massively inflate instead of defaulting.
It's a tightrope.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 15:43
Virginia Deflation?>(Deflation?) ID#426397:
Ok, so if there is deflation gold goes _____ stocks go_________bonds go up ( I think ) . The best place to put money is __________. Someone fill blanks.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 15:42
PrivateInvestor From Biggs mouth>(From Biggs mouth) ID#225283:

Barton Biggs feels that 0-2% CURRENT CORE RATE OF INFLATION WILL SPELL DEFLATION BY BY DEFINITION DURING NEXT BUSINESS CYCLE RECESSION.DERIVATIVE PROBLEM OF 10'S OF TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS WILL CAUSE WORLDWIDE IMPLOSION
due to the fact that derivatives were not priced with a volatile market in mind.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 15:42
AlKahulik http://idt.net/~kulick>(http://idt.net/~kulick) ID#256264:
Right again and down we go. He/she who fails to heed the
Full Moon cycle will understand the consequence. The
XAU is headed lower at least until Friday. 70s here we
come.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 15:24
PrivateInvestor @ all Re:CNBC>(@ all Re:CNBC) ID#225283:

Barton Biggs is BIG ON DEFLATION next on CNBC

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 15:16
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Aurator
My interest is in that missing month.
If it is possible to get it zipped in ascii text, as I run ibm.
Then you could throw it on a mollyhawk, as it wings it's way past.
Would be much appreciated.

Todays action in equities; same as yesterday - selling.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 14:36
bob2 @north>(@north) ID#258277:
analysis gold not mucj lower ?
http://www.btinternet.com/~stargate/comodity.htm

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 14:33
aurator taking spices to Cathay>(taking spices to Cathay) ID#250121:
Nick: I have a Macintosh and software called Marco Polo. I print any text or graphic ( or sound/movie etc ) into an archive. The file is compressed, indexed and retrievable by simple boolean rather than proximity searching. I have yet to extract to post on the net but can always cut and paste.

My offer to mooney extended to you naturally.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 14:30
Carl @home>(@home) ID#333131:
SDRer, Quite to the contrary, we will all owe you big time if you can put this puzzle together.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 14:30
:( :( :( When we going upppp?>(When we going upppp?) ID#152163:

oh woe is me I had so hoped today would be the day, how many false signals can we take?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 14:25
George Cole rally fizzles>(rally fizzles) ID#42953:
The failure of either gold or gold stocks to hold their morning gains implies that the lows probably will be tested again shortly.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 14:23
SDRer @Reality.check>(@Reality.check) ID#28594:
To: Carl@14:04

If I ever make it REALLY big, I owe you ( well, I owe even if I don't...God life's confusing )

Many many thanks. Now I've got to read the blasted stuff ( Bell's ) .
See ya later.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 14:19
steady Anyone>(Anyone) ID#285233:
Can anyone please post address that shows M1,M2,M3 data/history

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 14:19
SDRer @Reality.check>(@Reality.check) ID#28594:
To:Aurator@13:27

Thanks for the Heimann info!
Tho not a legal beagle, to me the key word is unless
the ban......continues unless the parties specifically agree...

I think they love that kind of stuff because it separates the $5000 an hour lawyer from the $500.

Rt. Hon. Lord Richardson is Chairman of Morgan Stanley International, Inc.
Sir David Walker is Chair of Morgan Stanley Europe. ( Also on Board of Reuters, Lloyds ( there's a HOT seat ) , Director Bank of England.

So WHO is Geoffrey L. Bell? Come on Carl...Come on Aurator...

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 14:04
Carl @home>(@home) ID#333131:
SDRer, Geoffrey L Bell, born 1939, Published World Money, End or Means 1986; Euro Dollar Market and the International Financial System 1973. You may just be on to something. Keep it up!!!!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 14:00
PrivateInvestor Mocatta Delivery Order>(Mocatta Delivery Order) ID#225283:

Hey guys...Have any of you folks ever used this Mocatta Delivery Order ( MDO ) or any other certicifate program that you would use again?Here is the pitch I was given:

Safety. Yopur precious metals ate registered in your name and stored in an independent depository under your control. Unlike any other certificate program, the holder of a Mocatta delivery Order ( MDO ) owns a specific, clearly identified bar of gold or silver, or a numbered, sealed container of gold , platinum, or silver bullion coins. The MDO IS A DOCUMENT GIVING CLEAR TITLE TO THAT PHYSICAL UNIT, stored in Switzerland. fTeh program is designed for investors committed to international asset allocation with safety , liquidity and privacy.
Full Insurance. High Liquidity, Purchase qualifies for IRAs,Low Fees-$100 issuance and ( 1/2% ) storage fee per year.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 13:57
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Fisherman
You have to let the sinker bounce along the bottom a few times,
To get the large bottom dwellers.
But if you don't have any bait down there,
How will you ever, catch anything?

Watch out for the razor coral, sharp and spikey.

Ask EB,
He lurks down in these nether regions,
And he claims the fishing's good.
His overflowing esky is good proof,
Of his fishing ability.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 13:51
uest algorithm>(algorithm) ID#20298:
lowercase-1st character +1 value different, no guess here

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 13:49
tfst algorithm>(algorithm) ID#295209:
Lowercase-2nd character +1 value different guess: 29599

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 13:49
John Disney idle_thoughts@antipodes>(idle_thoughts@antipodes) ID#24140:
Australian Reflections

The Australian electoral process is unique in the
world. Seems like the country is scoured every so
often for the lowest most useless jerk in the land.
THEN he is made Prime Minister -- I give you
Howard Keating Hawke Frazier and Whitlam - It would
have to be a lucky country to have survived this set
of clowns.
Think about it, mate

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 13:48
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Aurator
How have you saved the Kitco files.
As htm files?
Or have you pasted to a text editor?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 13:47
TEST algorithm>(algorithm) ID#29598:
Uppercase test

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 13:47
vronsky RISING OIL PRICES TO YEAR 2000 - Is $40-$50 Crude Possible?>(RISING OIL PRICES TO YEAR 2000 - Is $40-$50 Crude Possible?) ID#426220:
Per recognized international oil expert, rapidly rising capacity utilization will reach critical levels next year - forcing crude oil prices upwards. Further price impetus will be generated by increasing political and civil strife in Saudi Arabia, consequently putting in jeopardy the worlds largest supplier of Black Gold. Moreover, the ever irascible Saddam Hussein is feeling his oats again -- and any irresponsible action on his part could spike oil prices to $30 or more. Needless to say gold will rise in concert. Our bullish outlook for oil and gold are shared by others. Renown US investment analyst, Stephen Leeb, concurs both crude oil and gold are overdue for bull markets:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/crude_oil/rising_oil.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 13:46
te algorithm>(algorithm) ID#29598:
two character front key test

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 13:44
test algorithm>(algorithm) ID#29598:
lowercase control set

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 13:38
Robert @Atlanta>(@Atlanta) ID#403216:
Nick...enjoy your posts. Sorry to report that deflation almost always has been followed by an inflationary expansion from War.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 13:27
aurator Silver Threads and Golden Needles surely thrill this heart of mine>(Silver Threads and Golden Needles surely thrill this heart of mine) ID#257148:
SDRer

John G Heimann of Group of Thirties fame, held the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency July 21, 1977 to May 15, 1981
http://www.occ.treas.gov/compt.htm

While there I found this odd reference to gold contained in the ironically named *Growth And Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act of 1996*

Tort or any other legal beagle,

intepretation appreciated....

I am not sure of the context of this, is the need for a repetition due to a sunset clause? Or does this clarification contain a more permissive clause? Does anyone know of any interesting large gold transactions prior to October 27 1977 ( Oh! another October song! )


Sec. 2609. Prospective Application of Gold Clauses in Contracts. Gold clauses in contracts specify that payment is to be made in gold or in a dollar amount equivalent to gold. In 1933, gold clauses were made unenforceable. In 1977, Congress permitted gold clauses to be used again. This provision clarifies that the ban on gold clauses continues for those contracts issued prior to October 27, 1977 and cannot be revived, through assignment or novation, unless the parties specifically agree to the clause in the new agreement.

It may be nothing, but it sounds like someone made a mistake in the 1977 legislation. What was that mistake, I wonder? And why was that mistake so recently found and acted upon?

curiosity thrilled the aurator

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 13:24
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Avid chatter:

my view on gold/commodities/wholesale prices is that they are near the tail end of the kondratieff wave which peaked ( on a momentum basis ) in 1974 and which fell off the plateau in 1980. interest rates and CRB and gold and wpi all have to go up together to confirm the end of the cycle. the last comparable point was in the 1940's. *** keeps reminding me that it ain't happened yet, but exact timing on a ~54 year cycle is tricky...;- ) ) )

Privateer site has an article outlining where prices must go when all currencies must get backed/revalued with gold. US would need to revalue its gold holdings up from $42 to $1,126 to back US dollar 25% to gold. IN intermediate term I believe gold works lower. In longer term, it will be repeat of 80's.

Gold works in either inflation/deflation scenario. Avg gold stock in 1929-33 period went up 500% not including dividends. We all know what happened in the inflationary early 80s too.

actually I am a long term bear on gold...just short term bullish due to gold's image as a safe haven in much of asia.

wholesale price index.//// there are two troughs: the early one ( 1982-86 ) and the late one ( now ) . the stock market goes up big time ( as after 1932 and 1982 ) as soon as it is clear that rates have topped. stocks still go up after inflation returns even though bonds are falling, but the volatility increases and there are more bear markets along the way. that's probably enough of this even for a slow day

The perception of a strong dollar will go to the wayside after March 1998. Europeans CBs who sold off large amounts of gold has artificially supressed market last 2 years. With money generated from sales they bought dollars and have let them sit in TBonds. Mass exodus of funds next year as each country wants to get max ratio of there currency per Euro. No politician would want to hold money hear which may increase the amount of Euros they get on conversion.

SINGAPORE, Nov 11 ( Reuters ) - Asia stocks were mixed on Tuesday, as a variety of local factors dominated activity. Hong Kong stocks got a boost from the territory's chief executive, who sought to reassure investors amid widespread rumours about the financial health of local banks. The small-sized International Bank of Asia experienced what it called a ``minor run'' of HK$600 million to HK$700 million ( $77 million to $90 million ) on Monday, prompting rumours of problems among smaller institutions. The powerful Hong Kong Monetary Authority lent its support by saying it had confidence in the bank and that Hong Kong's banking system was ``strong and highly capitalised.''

runs are starting on HK banks....dollars apparently in short supply....I think gold will make an attempt pretty soon for a nice ST bounce....just an opinion....not necessarily bullish long term however.

curious to know on the long wave stuff, does the deflation period usually end with any sort of discernible event ( banking collapse/currency devalutions etc... ) perhaps the asia thing is 'the ' signal

...its not the index but the run on banks that concern me....this could become contagious across asia...HK banks are the strongest in asia, and if there are runs on HK banks then.......

Market watch
http://206.7.107.50/pbscgi/mktw100c

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 13:18
Fisherman @Bottom>(@Bottom) ID#331399:
Are we there yet?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 10:42
Gold.Rally.Schmold.Rally.Plunge.Team.Party.>(Gold.Rally.Schmold.Rally.Plunge.Team.Party.) ID#2082:
The Bears await this 'new' rally with open arms. It is ONLY a chance to drive it to the dirt once again. It still must slip under 300. It is not Georges BIG-to-the-moon-rally-that-will-kill-all-bulls-and-wait-for-no-mortal-man-other-than-the-ones-who-had-unlimited-dry-powder-for-just-this-very-day-rally. Do not be fooled by a few buck jump. SELL THE RALLIES! The Dec. options expire Friday and the calls don't want to 'go home' totally Worthless. The patterns are repeating for those so inclined to do their homework. As I would say, sell the rally and make a buck so you can buy a boatload ( buttload ) of calls ( or futures ) when the real rally comes.


on the other hand... ( just as Eldo and George like to cover ALL bases ;- ) ) my OJ/GOLD correlation could be taking place. If OJ holds then gold could follow. It is much like the infamous en/Plat corr. by the long lost Irvine-goldy-boy and the Sugar/Gold factor by our one and ONLY MikeS ( whose commentary I truly miss ) .

let us w/w...h M!

away...to hit my head on resistance...Bonk...and crash through support...Klunk


morning Ted Bro!! How bout those k-nicks. We got our very first rain of the YEAR ( truly ) . I didn't know what it was at first. And then my neighbor told me it was rain. I also read about it somewhere...it was cold and wet...weird...and they call for more of that rain today...double weird ;- )

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 10:28
Nick sharefin@cairns.net.au>(sharefin@cairns.net.au) ID#386276:
SDR
Send me an email and I can forward you some verse.
Dad has not been published as yet - maybe one day.

Galactic Exploration

Our daydreams are starships
Exploring the immense
Of the unfathomed mind.

In such dreams imagining we find
And range at will the fruitful land
Of all our undisclosed desires.

There temper in our hidden fires
The shapes of yet rough hewn thought
And forge and hammer out the ways
To form and flesh the Thing to birth
The unknown dreaming Thing we sought
When dreaming in some earlier day.

It is such day dreamings portray
Give shape and life to nascent thought
And guide the careful skilful hand
To build of yesterdays day dream
Tomorrows new and better land.



Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 10:26
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
AlKahulik: Which full moon - Nov 14 or Dec 14? My biggest problem with Astrological events is that you never know for sure until it happens, and then there is also the question of direction. Could it be that gold will go down briefly, and not up? It is possible that AG will not raise rates.
My guess is that we should wait until after Nov 14, at least - if we do not get the sign from the precious metals floor traders.
Nov 14 is very close to a Fed decision point, as I recall.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 10:22
arden ardengold@msn.com>(ardengold@msn.com) ID#201238:

Panda - send me an email

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 10:19
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
SDRer: Navier-Stokes! You know fluid mechanics! When I am more alert, we should compare notes. Amazing what diverse backgrounds we have on Kitco. It is no surprise to me that Physicists, Engineers, and other members of the hard sciences would be attracted to Kitco. Even some aspects of Medicine and Economics are becoming quantitative.
If you analyze facts all day, and measure precision to parts in a million or even less, you cannot fail to notice the gradual distortion of the facts around us. Any period of time more than 5 years or so would do it.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 10:12
AlKahulik http://idt.net/~kulick>(http://idt.net/~kulick) ID#256264:
The XAU rally is a Bull Trap. We will not bottom until
the Full Moon. Low 70s still on the horizon.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 10:06
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
There is a way to know if this is our gold rally!
Does anyone know what the metals floor traders are doing?
RJ -- where are you!
DA -- do you know what's up?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 10:03
vronsky QUESTION (?) Just WHO is buying the Gold? Ideas?>(QUESTION (?) Just WHO is buying the Gold? Ideas?) ID#426220:
The Beast et al & the Dragon are vying for position. Full explanation at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta1030.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 10:02
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
No offense to all of you -- many of you know much more about gold than I do -- but we should be cautious about a gold rally if the stock market has any life in it -- we all know what will happen if our White Night has to call in the plunge team, and suppress our favorite indicator. The ECU/EMU guys may not have given up quite yet on supporting the dollar, too.
Our time will come ----


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 10:00
Carl @home>(@home) ID#333131:
JTF, It's WEAK authority that scares people. Most don't care about honesty and may even see it as a sign of weakness. I too love Toronto for the very things you mentioned.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:59
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
India, China, Russia, Japan to start. Millions of people around the world.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:53
QUESTION (?) ID#231151:

Just WHO is buying the Gold? Ideas?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:52
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
JTF: The tide is turning against the Clinton's, I am neither a Dem nor a Repub, nor Lib or Ind. Just an American. My next comment is not based on my wishing to push a party line.

I see the Clinton's in deep trouble on many fronts. The American people think with their wallets in the last analysis, sad but true. While thay are fat they allow the most heinous of things to happen in our foreign policy arena.

When they get lean, their teeth become sharp, their temper fever pitch. Look for many things to come to a head in the next several months.

I used to, along with a great many Americans have respect for the current Attorney General. I considered her to be a straight shooter that let everyone around her know that her oath to office and the letter of the law guided her life.

Past events have tarnished this. I would imagine that the common heckling, politically motivated comments meant nothing to her. Clearly the aspersions cast upon her honor and oath have hit home. She is a tough lady and if she feels that she has been mislead by the administration things could get very ugly for the administration in total, and especially for the Clinton's.


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:52
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
Nick ( @Aussie ) : I have felt that gold was forming a bottom for months now, but that whenever it starts to move up, it gets trounced! My problem is that it is real hard to follow the TA on gold when someone else is too -- and trouncing it whenever it starts to move up. Pretty hard to invest in something that is manipulated as much as gold.
On the other hand -- when it does go - it may be spectacular! As I believe W D Gann once said: when a commodity ( or? ) is pushed down for long periods of time, the rally can be dramatic when it finally comes I know he didn't say this exactly, but that was the gist of it.
Sort of like when you stand on a bastketball in the swimming pool. The more you push it down, the more spectacular the explosion when it rises out of the water!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:51
vronsky BRILLIANT GOLD CALL FROM George S. Cole>(BRILLIANT GOLD CALL FROM George S. Cole) ID#426220:
George S. Cole went way out on a limb yesterday by not only calling for an imminent rally in gold, BUT went so far as to REPEAT the prediction in a very emphatic manner. Gold is UP $3.20 to 314.30 ( DEC 97 Futures ) . Bravo George!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:48
Carl @home>(@home) ID#333131:
BillD, I thought of mentioning Carter, but I think Clinton is on the road to a much weaker presidency than Carter's and much more dangerous. Carter was president when the foreign policy formulated by giants after WW2 was still appropriate and more or less on automatic pilot. Today, a weak president has no such inertia in foreign affairs. A perceived vacuum of fundamental thinking and grounding of actions by the world's one super power had explosive implications for us and the rest of the world.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:46
SDRer @Reality.check>(@Reality.check) ID#287280:
To: Nick@Aussie>Nick@Aussie, DJ@On a plane, Allen@US, JTF@Sane, A.Goose@Ppond.Central
and anybody else whose interested, or whom Ive forgotten 9with apologies )

Things went crazy after the Carnegie link, so I gave up and went back to my puzzle ( to find its not a puzzle but a Navier-Stokes equation! )

1. From the Pei site ( for which my Thanks ) Capital needs to know the Vaule of MONEY itself... Yes, Yes, Yes. Thats what this is all about. Thats why theyve been driven to the SDR...it provides some measure of stability in a world in flux ( to put it kindly ) .

2. The most interesting aspect of gold sales has only been, to my mind, WHOSE BUYING;They're not peddling this stuff in dark allys, Pzzt, buddy, want to buy a gold bar?;either there are enormous fortunes controlled by total idiots [possible, but not probable] or someone knows something that the rest of us dont ( which is a definition of how Fortunes are MADE, yes ) .

3. Nick@Aussie: Please give your Dad my compliments on Dry Brown Land. The opening stanzas cadence poetically established Times eternal power, the affinity between time and the land, and provided a powerful palette on to which the word/images were painted. Id really like to have a hard copy of this. If I send you my E-Mail, could you send it to me? Has your Dad been published in hard copy? Thanks.

4. Please please read the bit on Roosa Bonds ( the deal wherein the US Treasury pledged to pay back the bonds in SWISS FRANCS; itll prepare your head to withstand coming blows ( e.g., whats the swap line established between US Treasury, Japan, the Saudis and the IMF? )

Thanks all. All info appreciated very much. In a Navier-Stokes the nature of the relationships keep rearranging themselves, so help is vital and appreciated.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:43
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Gold forming a bottom?

http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Image134.gif


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:40
JTF @Toronto>(@Toronto) ID#57232:
Mooney: Great comment! You are right - did get up late this morning! What I meant was that once I am already in Toronto ( go there almost every Chrismas for the last 20 years ) -- if I go into a store -- not just one of those malls where all the signs are in Chinese -- there are more nationalities than I can recognize. That is true cultural diversity, and the good ol US of A is all the worse for not encouraging this. Canada is now the melting pot of North America -- and will benefit in the long run. The US is now showing much less diversity - to our detriment.
I live in the geometric center of the US -- but have lived in many locations -- including California. My fondest memories are of the east - where I grew up. Takes one long day to drive to Toronto. Your idea of a Kitcoite meet sounds great to me -- I vote for Christmas time if possible -- would prefer Toronto to Buffalo, though -- spent 4 years near Buffalo -- no offence to my fellow Americans!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:37
George Cole gold rally>(gold rally) ID#42953:
Looks like that gold rally some of us have been expecting has arrived. But we will have to see if the recent lows can hold on the next reaction before becoming too enthusiastic.

We must also track the open interest very carefully. If the open interest drops sharply as the yellow moves up, this rally won't last long. But if the open interest advances along with the gold price, then upside fireworks are a distinct possibility.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:32
Ridgerunner Piling on>(Piling on) ID#356379:

Another attempt at humor...

It seems Pres. Bill and Hillary were on a little version of Air Force One heading to another fundraiser. The only other people on the plane were the pilot, a priest, and a Boy Scout. Somewhere over the Rockies the pilot has a heart attack, barely gets the plane on autopilot, leaves his seat, stumbles back to the passenger area, falls over, and dies.

The four passengers see only three parachutes on the plane.

Pres. Bill says I am the most powerful man in the world. It is important that I survive. He then straps on a parachute. opens a hatch, and exits the plane.

Hillary then says I am the smartest woman in the world. I can fix the U.S. medical system. It is important that I survive. So she straps up and exits the plane.

The priest turns to the Boy Scout and says Son, I have led a long life. You have a lot to look forward to. Don't worry about me. Go ahead and take the last parachute.

The Boy Scout says Father, not to worry. We have two chutes left. The smartest woman in the world just bailed out wearing my back pack!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:28
panda @How much gold should we have in our NEW Central Bank?>(@How much gold should we have in our NEW Central Bank?) ID#30116:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971111/no_decision_on_gold__1.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:24
JTF @Home - looking at the future - markets down - gold up>(@Home - looking at the future - markets down - gold up) ID#57232:
Carl: Austute observation about Clinton's popularity correlating inversely with price of gold. I think what we will see is that the stock market doldrums ( or worse ) will make people question the honesty of authority -- and demand more of our leaders. In the long run, the same process that makes people move back to hard assets that cannot be devalued or debased, will also make them ask for the kind of ethical character that all of our world leaders should have.
I think the tide is also slowly turning within our own government. Those honest individuals - - fed up with what is happening -- are finally able to go after the dishonest ones. A market shakeup will accelerate the process. We as a people must figure how to support them -- probably most effectively at the grass roots. Janet Reno, who is basically honest -- though compromised somehow -- is gradually coming around. I suspect that our department of Justice has major internal problems.
I still remember vividly the day that someone in our government lost the orders for those F16's or F17's that were to go to Indonesia -- the Riady connection, as I recall. All of those fighter planes sat in some airport in California for a while, until the good guys found out, and blew the whistle. I am still stunned by the idea that Commerce department empployees such as John Huang could get top security clearances without a security check by the FBI. He was flagrantly passing information to Indonesia to his former Riady partners during lunchtime, right under the noses of Commerce officials, and a CIA rep ( who was probably told to look the other way ) . As far as I am concerned that is treason. Of course, can't ask Ron Brown, can we?
My biggest concern is that our leaders create a world crisis to get the minds of the public off the markets, and other economic problems that will come if the markets drop. Wars based on political gain only are trouble! The US is a world leader, and we should have the statesmanship to go with it!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:19
Auric Kitco>(Kitco) ID#255151:

I will believe this Gold rally is for real when I can't access Kitco. So far, it has been functioning perfectly, as HAL 9000 would say.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:14
Midas @Happy>(@Happy) ID#340459:
GO Gold Go, May you have a steady Climb, Amen
Good Morning All

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:13
BillD Confidence game>(Confidence game) ID#258427:
It's called ... A lack of confidence ... this is a confidence game.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:12
Flash heavymetalshuttle>(heavymetalshuttle) ID#284274:

Blast-off************

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:11
Mooney @JTF>(@JTF) ID#348169:
BTW - JTF - What area are you from. It has been said here many times before that there are so many of us in the industrial North-East that we should somehow have a Kitco annual picnic ( not to be confused with the Flag annual picnic at the Moose Golf and Country Club near Sudbury ) , perhaps Toronto, Rochester, or Bart's hometown, Montreal. ( Or maybe Niagara Falls! )

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:06
tolerant1 @Tequilaville>(@Tequilaville) ID#31868:
O'tay, announced on CNBC, now the US govt is talking about minting a gold colored coin?!? $1.00 coin

Would this be the time for some real Americans, that use the real Constitution to bring up the subject of gold and silver in the real coins of the United States.



Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:04
Mooney* moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com) ID#348169:
JTF - You got me ROTFL - Have you had your morning coffee yet? The reason that, I can walk into a mall or shopping center and feel like I am in a different country... is that because, IF YOU'RE AMERICAN, you ARE in a different country when in Toronto. The border is that place you cross near that big dip of land called 'Niagara Falls' ( If driving from upstate N.Y. ) ;- ) BTW - We call this different country - CANADA!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:03
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene) ID#213265:
Yup! Kinda' thought today would provide some movement in the gold/silver! How do you like it so far?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:03
BillD Klinton/Jimmy Carter>(Klinton/Jimmy Carter) ID#258427:
Carl ... Look what happened to Silver and Gold when Jimmy Carter was the President, and the world ( including the US ) felt that he did not show World Leadership!! This is one of the main justifications for expecting big moves in PM's ... Klinton's apparent lack of US or World Leadership.
IMHOO....

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:02
Spud Master @Crystall Ball>(@Crystall Ball) ID#273112:
Yes, you are dreaming. We are still in hell.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:01
Crystal Ball @Am I dreaming?>(@Am I dreaming?) ID#287367:
Is this right? What's the story?
New York Time Gold 313.75 +3.25 08:58 Silver 4.98+ 0.12 08:58

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 09:00
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
Donald: See Carl's post on the bank lines in Hong Kong? Also R Dorbusch is in the news again -- Hong Kong about a month ago, now South America!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 08:56
JTF @Toronto>(@Toronto) ID#57232:
Mooney: Toronto is my favorite non-US city -- I can walk into a mall or shopping center and feel like I am in a different country -- much more cultural diversity than the US! Canada is like the US without many of our probelms.
Like your comment from Clarence Darrow. I guess Kitcoites have a consistent tendency to differ, but not all of us think! Would be nice if the differences were more peaceful. Everyone loses when the fur starts flying.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 08:55
Crystal Ball @Mooney*>(@Mooney*) ID#287367:
Must be the global warming {;- ) }

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 08:53
Carl @home>(@home) ID#333131:
Leland, Fear in the country is reflected in presidential popularity. The inverse of Clinton's popularity will correlate with the price of gold.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 08:44
Mooney* moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com) ID#348169:
Cold in Toronto today! Had the car in the drive last night and woke up to find ice on the roof. Here's one that doesn't really apply to those at Kitco: To think is to differ. - Clarence Darrow

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 08:37
George Cole fast track>(fast track) ID#42953:
Clinton has now conceded that fast track is dead. This greatly increases the odds that the October lows will be be broken before long.

Modest rebound in Nikkei, but dollar still surging versus yen. The Asian crisis is far from over. Gold's small gain this morning encouraging in view of peristent dollar strength.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 08:28
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net) ID#316193:
CARL -- Regarding your 08:16 about our Country having a lack of trust
in the Whitehouse, if you enter +impeach-clinton on the Alta Vista
search engine, up pops 967 web pages on the subject. Then there are
mega links within some of these web pages.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 08:23
Donald @13YearXAUChart-NearCycleBottom?>(@13YearXAUChart-NearCycleBottom?) ID#26793:
http://www.tscn.com/wsc/timespan.html?TSym=XAU.X?445,12

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 08:16
Carl @home>(@home) ID#333131:
Some political thoughts and gold, We are entering a period of maximum world financial and political risk with a US president who will be ( for three long years ) the weakest president since Harding. Our foreign policy is untenable and has resulted in alienating a huge portion of mankind ( the Islamic world ) to the point where they are willing to tolerate a mad man who is a bigger threat to them than us, just because we are his enemy. The President has run out his BS approach to politics to the point where his own party in Congress doesn't trust him. Coming contraction of US corporate profits will have their inevitable effect on stock prices, even if there is no panic before then, and the President's support on the ground will drop like a rock. The prospect of three years with a weak US president in a turbulent world is a formula for scenarios of frightening proportions. The only strong member of his administration seems to be Rubin. His resignation would signal the last rat leaving a sinking ship. Gold is a refuge in troubled times.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 08:13
More News @RealWorld.com>(@RealWorld.com) ID#153101:
Hong Kong UP, Tokyo UP, UK market UP..... gold still depressed.
The end of the world has again been postponed for another day.
Those darned conspirators, Kissinger Rockefella, yuppie nerds and
all, they are just too lucky. Like the IRA said when they failed
to murder Maggie Thatcher, You have to be lucky every time, we only
have to be lucky once.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 08:12
Donald @FedModelSaysStocksStillOvervalued14.3%>(@FedModelSaysStocksStillOvervalued14.3%) ID#26793:
http://lp-llc.com/cents/yardeni.shtml

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 08:09
Crystal Ball @Tortfeasor>(@Tortfeasor) ID#287367:
From: The Funny Bone via Madalyn Craig


Tech Support for Etch-A-Sketch ( tm )
Q: My Etch-A-Sketch has a distorted display. What should I do?
A: Pick it up and shake it.
Q: My Etch-A-Sketch has these funny little lines all over the screen.
A: Pick it up and shake it.
Q: How do I turn my Etch-A-Sketch off?
A: Pick it up and shake it. Set it down.
Q: My Etch-A-Sketch has lines that prevent me from doing my art project.
A: Pick it up and shake it.
Q: How do I delete a document from my Etch-A-Sketch?
A: Pick it up and shake it.
Q: How do I keep from losing my Etch-A-Sketch document?
A: Stop shaking it.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 08:03
Donald @EmergingMarketMeltdownGoodForCreditMarkets>(@EmergingMarketMeltdownGoodForCreditMarkets) ID#26793:
http://lp-llc.com/cents/braverman.shtml

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 07:59
News @8 o'clock>(@8 o'clock) ID#390100:

Gold up .60 Silver up .09

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 07:48
Mooney* @Crystal Ball>(@Crystal Ball) ID#348169:
I agree with your outlook on Silver. Yesterday I sent an e-mail to one of our Kitco regulars who had asked me for my current take on the PM's. Here was my partial reply: ...PMs - PGMs - flat. Gold - Really hard to predict now due to world markets in flux. Gut says something has to break in near future to make it go up but at this point the long-term chart is still sick.
Silver - Up. Great chart action. With some ups and downs price is still generally headed up even as gold has been generally headed down.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 07:48
Tortfeasor Joke of the day>(Joke of the day) ID#36965:
I see gold fairly quickly drifting back up to the 320 level, paper continuing its move down caused by the pull financial gravity; a grave thought indeed. There's the joke of the morning from this end.

This truck driver hauling a tractor-trailer load of computers stops
for a beer. As he approaches the bar he sees a big sign on the
door saying

NERDS NOT ALLOWED-ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK!

He goes in and sits down. The bartender comes over to him, sniffs,
says he smells kind of nerdy, asks him what he does for a living.
The truck driver says he drives a truck, and the smell is just from the
computers he is hauling. The bartender says OK, truck drivers are
not nerds, and serves him a beer.

As he is sipping his beer, a skinny guy walks in with tape around
his glasses, a pocket protector with twelve kinds of pens and pencils,
and a belt at least a foot too long. The bartender, without saying a
word, pulls out a shotgun and blows the guy away. The truck driver
asks him why he did that. The bartender said not to worry, the
nerds are overpopulating the Silicon Valley, and are in season now. You
don't even need a license, he said.

So the truck driver finishes his beer, gets back in his truck, and
heads back onto the freeway. Suddenly he veers to avoid an
accident, and the load shifts. The back door breaks open and computers spill
out all over the freeway. He jumps out and sees a crowd already
forming, grabbing up the computers. They are all engineers,
accountants and programmers wearing the nerdiest clothes he has
ever seen. He can't let them steal his whole load.

So remembering what happened in the bar, he pulls out his gun and
starts blasting away, felling several of them instantly. A highway
patrol officer comes zooming up and jumps out of the car screaming
at him to stop. The truck driver said What's wrong? I thought
nerds were in season.

Well, sure, said the patrolman, But you can't bait 'em.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 07:44
Crystal Ball @Anagram Insanity>(@Anagram Insanity) ID#287367:
Paper is dogmeat = Media Stage Prop

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 07:42
Auric Kitco>(Kitco) ID#255151:

Good site for currency info. Highly recommended. http://www.oanda.com/cgi-bin/ncc

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 07:37
Crystal Ball @Silver>(@Silver) ID#287367:
http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/fstwin40.gif
We have found sturdy support these past 2-3 weeks 465-480 range. I'm getting a strong premonition of an explosive up-move that will surprise many on this site. Possibly to $6.80+ within a few weeks.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 07:32
Carl @home>(@home) ID#333131:
Morning all, CNBC showing lines at banks in HK in living color.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 07:28
Auric Kitco>(Kitco) ID#255151:

Donald ( and Kitcoites ) --We may have been overlooking the smaller European Economies. Looks a lot like a replay of SE Asia. http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u Maybe someone could give us a recap of what these currencies have done?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 07:23
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Gold: Uncertainty over prospects

THURSDAY NOVEMBER 6 1997

By Gary Mead

If gold fails to rally from its current 12-year low, it will not be through a lack of
effort on the part of many of the precious metal's firmest advocates, out in
force yesterday at a gold conference in Tokyo.

George Milling-Stanley, an analyst with the World Gold Council - which exists
to promote gold in all its forms - adopted a bold posture and told the Nikkei
Gold Conference that it is very unlikely that gold will fall below the important
level of $300 per troy ounce.

Yesterday in London the afternoon gold fix was $313.50 an ounce, $1.10
weaker than in the morning.

The price of bullion has been under severe pressure for several months but it
nose-dived on 24 October when the Swiss National Bank announced that
from 1999 it may sell 1,400 tonnes of its total reserves of 2,600 tonnes.

The New York market immediately responded by knocking 5 per cent off the
price of gold, down to $309 an ounce.

While it has recovered slightly and is still far from 1985's low point of $285,
the bears are having a field day; UBS's precious metals analysts have just
published a study forecasting an average price in 1998 of $300 an ounce.

However, Mr Milling-Stanley yesterday asserted that even if gold does fall to
$300, it won't stay there because physical demand is much stronger now than
it was in 1985.

Yet he also added that at current gold prices more than half of the world's
gold mines are loss-making, and said serious production cuts may be in the
offing if the price remains depressed.

Nonetheless, there is real uncertainty, due to widespread suspicion as to what
central banks - the world's biggest holders of bullion - plan to do with their
reserves.

The announcement by the Swiss National Bank came shortly after the
revelation in July by the Australia Reserve Bank that it had sold two-thirds of
its gold holdings in the previous six months. That in turn followed significant
sales by the Belgian and Dutch central banks in the previous 12 months.

Paul Walker, senior metals analyst with Gold Fields Mineral Services, took
some comfort from what he saw as growing physical demand. Mr Walker told
the Tokyo conference that the sale of official reserves has helped depress
gold's price and this, ironically, could act as a deterrent to further such sales.








Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 07:17
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Auric: Add Russia to your list. Down 29.71 right now ( 3.62% ) Down 31% from the yearly high. Mark Mobius should have invested in a hair transplant instead.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 07:09
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Russia: Central bank raises interest rates

TUESDAY NOVEMBER 11 1997

By John Thornhill in Moscow

The rhetoric had an old-fashioned sound, but the action was decidedly
modern. Huffing and puffing about the nefarious activities of foreign
speculators, Russia's Central Bank yesterday raised interest rates to defend
the rouble.

But it also, in effect, announced a widening of the rouble's trading band,
indicating that the currency would be allowed to fluctuate by up to 30 per cent
around its central target rate of Rbs6,200 against the dollar over the next three
years. That compares with yesterday's closing rate to the dollar of
Rbs5,907.5.

The events of the last days show that there is a circle of players whose
actions are aimed at destabilising the financial system of the country, a central
bank statement growled.

We are stimulating a flow of funds into government securities and eliminating
returns from foreign-exchange speculation, added Sergei Dubinin, the bank's
governor.

Several economists praised the government for its attempt to pre-empt the
speculative pressures mounting against the rouble. This was very smart on the
Central Bank's part, said Michael Marrese, senior emerging markets
economist at Chase Manhattan, the US bank.

They realised that they did not have the reserves to protect GKO
( Treasury-bill ) yields and that it was much more important to defend the
rouble. A number of investors who left Russia will now re-invest.

But some debt traders argued the government's move might be construed as a
sign of weakness and would intensify the speculative pressures it was designed
to dampen.

Analysts estimate the Central Bank has spent $2bn of its $25bn of
international reserves over the past weeks in defending the rouble. But the
bank must have realised that this was a finite game while interest rates were
unchanged.

The danger was that the turmoil in the world's financial markets would prompt
foreigners to withdraw their money from the government debt market. So the
government had to help foreign investors hold rouble assets by increasing
interest rates.

According to Denis Smyslov, a debt analyst at the Moscow office of Global
Fund Management, foreign capital now accounts for more than 30 per cent of
the $58bn government debt market, and there had been clear signs that this
was beginning to head home.

A devaluation of the rouble would certainly have a devastating impact on the
government's hard-won credibility, especially considering the central bank
intends to redenominate the currency early next year to reinforce faith in
Russia's macro-economic stabilisation.

A heavy fall could also have led to severe problems in the banking sector,
which is heavily exposed to the forward dollar market.

The adverse consequences of the monetary tightening are that it could choke
economic growth and that the government's borrowing costs will soar.

Although yesterday's move may have bought the Russian government some
much-needed time, it has done nothing to improve the fundamental economic
landscape. Just when the Russian government believed it was finally coming
out of the woods, it has run into another thicket of trees.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 07:08
Auric Kitco>(Kitco) ID#255151:

Donald--To carry the analogy further, Greece and the Czech Republic may be to Europe as Thailand and Malaysia are to Asia. Greek market is at 1378, down about 6%. It is now off about 25% from its '97 high. Czech Republic is at 500, down 5% for the day. Down 20%from its '97 high. AND.... One ECU is 3-1-0 Drachmas! ( True )

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 07:04
Donald @ThailandWantsNewIMFLoanPlan-ThisOneTooTough>(@ThailandWantsNewIMFLoanPlan-ThisOneTooTough) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971110/thailand_imf_1.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 06:55
Monkee Person @Markus or Marcus...George?>(@Markus or Marcus...George?) ID#345204:
Soros, Kissinger. Kissinger, Soros. Same, same. Wasn't it Kissinger that the Rockefellers found at Harvard, US$60,000 in debt? Paid the debt and enjoined him to aid in the proliferation of their ideologies?

Con ( fidence ) men, both.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 06:39
Donald @Russia&ChinaOpposeMilitaryActionAgainstIraq>(@Russia&ChinaOpposeMilitaryActionAgainstIraq) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971111/iraq_russia_china_3.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 06:35
Donald @Czech&GreekCurrencyProblems>(@Czech&GreekCurrencyProblems) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/05/z0009_75.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 06:29
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Hi Auric: Everything connects to everything. There is no easy way out of this mess.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 06:25
Donald @GreenspanSpeaksOnThursday>(@GreenspanSpeaksOnThursday) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971110/us_credit_outlook_ac_1.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 06:24
Auric Kitco>(Kitco) ID#255151:

Donald--Good posts this a.m. on monetary situation in Japan and Latin America. Startin' to look like SE Asia a few months ago, eh?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 06:18
Donald @DornbuschLatinAmericanEconomic&MonetaryAnalysis>(@DornbuschLatinAmericanEconomic&MonetaryAnalysis) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/07/y0023_z00_25.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 06:04
Auric Hurryin' Hoosiers>(Hurryin' Hoosiers) ID#255151:

Nick of Canberra--G'day! If sports were finance, we would use football season as a tax write-off!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 06:02
Donald @AsiaWantsIMFBailoutButNotIMFDiscipline>(@AsiaWantsIMFBailoutButNotIMFDiscipline) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971109/asia_economy_1.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 05:59
Donald @IndonesiaBanks&RoyalFamily>(@IndonesiaBanks&RoyalFamily) ID#26793:
http://www.theage.com.au:80/daily/971108/news/news24.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 05:53
Nick @C>(@C) ID#386245:
G'day Hairy-- er Auric. UP 10 cents. Jeez--I'm gonna start planning my retirement!! HoweryerHoosiersdoinmate

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 05:49
Auric Answers>(Answers) ID#255151:

For World Markets go to http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 05:48
Nick @C>(@C) ID#386245:
Nick@Oz
NDY--Just went over to Parklane and checked out out all the volumes today. 3,440,808 today.5,685,056 yesterday. Biggest 500,000, 200---,100---300---200---100---150---300---200---all others pissant trades.Warrants--no action.Parklane doesn't do options. I've got some May calls and they are deader than a dead dingo's donger. Maybe someone accumulating earlier calls before the Canadian listings If there is some good news coming out--they've kept it a very good secret--'caus the share price isn't showing it.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 05:45
Donald @NewMoneySupplyAnalysisTool>(@NewMoneySupplyAnalysisTool) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/06/y0004_z00_23.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 05:44
Mark Twain Eldorado&Earl>(Eldorado&Earl) ID#273273:
Thanks a lot Curly & Moe. I bet a buddy of mine that nobody posting
on this site would be stupid enough to respond to my last post.
You not only proved your lack of intelligence, you cost me $10.


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 05:43
Auric Hair-Brained Ideas>(Hair-Brained Ideas) ID#255151:

Gold at 05:37 is 3-1-0-.60 up .10 Silver at 4.92 up .06 Hey, it's a start.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 05:38
Donald @MoreCountriesImplicatedInNaziGoldTrade>(@MoreCountriesImplicatedInNaziGoldTrade) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/11/06/y0004_z00_36.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 05:33
Whats the Whats the>(Whats the) ID#168420:
What's the current price of gold? ( Can't find it on this site. )
How are the Asian markets doing?
Thanks.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 05:33
Donald @MoneySupplyGrowthRateDropsInJapan>(@MoneySupplyGrowthRateDropsInJapan) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971110/dip_in_money_growth__1.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 05:31
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Nick@C
Thanks for the info - parklane
Do they do options - spi etc?
DGD at bargain prices @ platinium.
Ndy seems to have someone accumulating.
Call options are strange?
Nov & Febs have large nos of bid & ask through all series,
Yet May all quiet?
20's to 30's bid/ask each side.
Almost like massive strangle.
Must be some news to come soon.
Either good or bad that will send it moving.
Has been some large call lots go thru lately.
De Crespigny has been doing a lot of positioning lately - Gutnick.

That Elliot-wave report is short term - note his resistance.
He is very good I feel.
Those levels were levels of support,
On the downside support at 2469 then 2340.
On the upside resistance 2557 then 2603,

Swing chart
http://165.247.180.114/pub/discussion/Swing31.gif
Oscillator soon to turn down?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 05:30
Donald @WholesalePricesFallInJapan>(@WholesalePricesFallInJapan) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971110/lower_japan_prices_r_1.html

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 05:16
Nick @C>(@C) ID#386245:
Nick@Oz-- one of your posts earlier today, mate--some guy talking about the Dec SPI futures. He expected a retreat in the all ords to the 2340-2469? level . Do you know what time frame he was talking about? Before the end of Dec., I hope, as I've got some of em and I'm getting a bit touchy as the market just fritters around waiting for someone to tell it what to do.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 05:08
Nick @C@Nick(@Aussie) >(@C@Nick(@Aussie) ) ID#386245:
G'day Nick. I use Parklane. Pretty good except when it gets real busy. On mini-crash day they had to shut down the depth of trade info in order to keep everything else going. Otherwise I am very happy.

http://www.parklane.com.au

Let me know if you see this--will save me an e-mail.

What's this about yer missus won't let ya buy no more puts If it wasn't fer them puts I'd be in big strife, mate. Sure ain't making a killing on gold shares at the moment!! Expect to soon, though.

Normandy Only action I can see is bein' nibbled to death by guppies. A cent or two a day. The accumulation I see is on Delta ( DGD ) .
Volumes moving up big-time!! What do you think is going on at NDY?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 05:06
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Gold, Silver and S&P option.
Changes in OI between 24th Oct and 10 Nov.
Sorted open interest - descending order
Shows the current bias:

Code L/P OI-971124 OI-971110 Change
GC7ZC320 0.60 1226 8684 7458
GC8JC340 2.60 2069 5394 3325
GC8ZC410 0.90 557 3011 2454
GC8GC350 0.60 10499 12809 2310
GC7ZC315 1.80 23 2203 2180
GC8ZC400 1.00 2715 4661 1946
GC8MP290 2.90 29 1876 1847
GC8GC340 1.40 3893 5398 1505
GC8GC330 2.40 2207 3666 1459
GC8JP320 13.50 5205 6447 1242
GC8ZC330 11.00 2 1156 1154
GC8GC335 1.90 1636 2741 1105
GC8MC400 0.40 4493 5583 1090
GC8MC380 0.80 4501 5558 1057
GC9MC370 5.00 3240 4292 1052
GC8GP300 4.20 742 1775 1033
GC8FP310 5.10 1 895 894
GC8JP300 4.70 927 1801 874
GC8JP310 8.40 3032 3894 862
GC8JC350 1.50 4039 4880 841
GC8GC320 4.90 77 892 815
GC8ZC360 3.30 1841 2597 756
GC8MC340 3.20 3421 4175 754
GC8GP310 6.80 4507 5251 744
GC8FC330 1.80 9 732 723
GC8MC350 2.40 2105 2754 649
GC8JC420 0.10 76 686 610
GC8MC330 5.90 1243 1824 581
GC8FC350 0.50 55 605 550
GC8GP280 1.20 35 535 500
GC8GC325 3.50 505 928 423
GC8JC370 0.80 11756 12161 405
GC9MP280 3.10 53 456 403
GC8ZP320 12.60 5350 5737 387
GC8GP315 9.30 514 894 380
GC8JP290 2.70 46 421 375
GC8QC370 2.10 434 754 320
GC8MC420 0.20 1826 2134 308
GC8MP310 8.30 699 933 234
GC8MC320 9.60 4 237 233
GC8JC330 4.70 2252 2476 224
GC8JC360 1.10 5035 5257 222
GC8GC315 6.90 21 227 206

Code L/P OI-971124 OI-971110 Change
SI9NC700 12.70 3320 6344 3024
SI8HC600 4.00 1959 2661 702
SI8FC500 11.00 120 747 627
SI8KP400 2.60 50 666 616
SI8HC575 5.70 1197 1579 382
SI8HP475 16.00 1003 1234 231
SI7ZP450 0.50 2499 2703 204
SI8NC600 9.50 718 898 180
SI8HP500 29.30 686 849 163
SI8HP425 3.10 756 915 159
SI7ZP425 0.10 3144 3298 154
SI8FP450 2.00 2 148 146
SI8HC625 2.90 641 783 142
SI8HP450 7.30 402 542 140
SI8HC525 12.70 2535 2662 127
SI8KC600 6.80 288 397 109
SI8FP475 7.00 219 326 107

Code L/P OI-971124 OI-971110 Change
SP7ZP675 2.50 6932 14198 7266
SP7ZP750 6.30 7272 12913 5641
SP7ZP800 10.00 4324 9834 5510
SP7ZP850 18.00 5256 10292 5036
SP7ZP900 28.00 2501 7496 4995
SP7XP900 13.50 1576 6128 4552
SP7XP850 6.50 3218 7521 4303
SP7XP910 17.00 983 5005 4022
SP7ZP840 16.50 2974 6511 3537
SP7ZC950 25.00 2524 5916 3392
SP7ZC970 16.00 3069 6117 3048
SP7ZP700 4.10 2062 4641 2579
SP7XC970 5.50 749 3304 2555
SP7XP890 11.00 348 2798 2450
SP7XP700 0.40 1038 3376 2338
SP7ZP950 37.50 2076 4340 2264
SP7XP940 25.00 1245 3357 2112
SP7XP750 1.30 1278 3388 2110
SP7XP920 17.50 751 2825 2074
SP7XC930 24.30 88 2036 1948
SP7ZC900 51.50 1977 3908 1931
SP7XC980 2.60 1589 3508 1919
SP7ZP890 19.50 964 2842 1878
SP8HP750 16.00 1650 3513 1863
SP7XP880 9.70 448 2301 1853
SP7XP840 6.00 2079 3905 1826
SP7ZC975 17.60 1730 3556 1826
SP7ZP760 6.50 1870 3658 1788


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 04:56
Auric Kitco>(Kitco) ID#255151:

Howdy Nicks, Jin and other Kitcoites. Off for a few days now. Got me one of them hair transplants 2 weeks ago and they're already going gangbusters! Go Gold, Go Silver, Grow Hair!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 04:51
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Watcher
I posted the url I think,
I am not allowed to put anymore in.
Virtue of the missus.
But I wish I could.
Have to wait to get some profits before I buy anything more.
I copped heaps when I bought my last 5 puts
( :-_}!!!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 04:39
JIN OPPS..NICK.....VIETNAM WANNA JOIN TOO?...THE HEAT IS UP...>(OPPS..NICK.....VIETNAM WANNA JOIN TOO?...THE HEAT IS UP...) ID#206358:
NICK,
time to off,...breaking news read:11/11/97

HANOI, Vietnam ( AP ) - Economic freedoms aside, political repression
is on the rise in Vietnam and being legitimized by legal reforms, according
to a human rights study released today.

The government has widely used ``administrative detention'' to hold
dissidents and pro-democracy activists without formally charging them,
said the New York-based Human Rights Watch/Asia in its first
expansive report on Vietnam in several years.

``This is yet another case in Asia of economic development not
producing any political liberty or reform whatsoever and maybe even the
reverse,'' said Sidney Jones, the group's executive.

The government did not respond to requests for comment Monday, but
Hanoi has said it respects individual freedoms and does not have political
prisoners. It has accused human rights groups of meddling in its internal
affairs.

The human rights study was released just days before leaders from the
French-speaking world converge on Hanoi for the seventh Francophonie
Summit. Among top dignitaries attending the meeting will be French
President Jacques Chirac and Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien.

``Vietnam's foreign partners should urge the government to increase
transparency and accountability within its process of legal reform,'' the
human rights organization said.

``Administrative detention is a familiar means of social and political
control in Vietnam,'' the report said.

A political directive - Communist Party Directive 31 - signed by former
Prime Minister Vo Van Kiet earlier this year legalized administrative
detention, despite constitutional protections against the practice.

Citing numerous cases, Human Rights Watch/Asia said Vietnam was
holding political and religious dissidents simply for expressing their desire
for greater democracy or spiritual freedom.

The Communist Party's religious affairs commission has said that
Buddhist leaders - Thich Quang Do and Thich Huyen Quang - were
being held prisoner, but said they had committed crimes against the state.

Human Rights Watch/Asia listed the two monks among nine dissidents
and religious leaders currently imprisoned in Vietnam, but said many
others shared the same fate.

Other human rights groups have claimed anywhere from 50 to several
hundred government opponents, pro-democracy advocates and religious
leaders are imprisoned in Vietnam.

Human Rights Watch/Asia also said the Communist Party systematically
repressed the freedom of expression.

The editor in chief of a business newspaper was recently arrested and
charged with revealing state secrets after his reporting exposed an alleged
corruption scam involving the country's customs department.

New regulations have also limited the activities of foreign journalists
working in Vietnam and increased censorship.

In the mid-1980s, Vietnam embarked on a program of economic reform
and liberalization that in recent years has catapulted the country's
economy to near double-digit annual growth.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 04:39
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Nick@C
Have a good look at NDY tomorrow.
Also check out their options - somethings up?
What provider do you use,
Do you have alive feed,
I am looking for a live provider,
Currently using bourse but their data is not live enough.
email me at sharefin@cairns.net.au
Ta

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 03:44
Nick @other Nick>(@other Nick) ID#386245:
G'day Aussies/Kiwis/Jin/S.A.s/sleepless N. Americans

Very dull market today. Am gradually taking put profits and putting them into physical. I know pm's could go down a bit more--doesn't matter--extra cash that won't be missed in at NEAR the bottom is good enough for me. I calculate the odds. Five years from now will pm prices be much higher or much lower The upside is so much bigger than the downside--the mind boggles. Nobody loves gold right now. That is my signal. I don't want to wait in line ( like Hong Kong bank customers today ) . Things are so incredibly negative for gold that I am buying proof sets issued by the Perth Mint ( collectors items ) in fancy native timber display cases for spot + 10 percent. Sets that sold for A$2000+ on issue I am buying for A$800. This kind of negativity I like!! If any of you out there arn't filling your cookie jars with gold coins/ingots/bars right now then you are so psyched out that you can't think straight. OK -- so what if we go to $250-$300 range. It won't last long!! If ANOTHER is right you will retire on a few ounces. If gold just stays even while paper collapses, you are way ahead. If gold becomes an ancient relic you can make some nice necklaces to hand out to your grandchildren. Worst case to best case--worthless baubles ( repudiating several thousand years of human historical value ) tooo absolutely unobtainable at any price-- wherein you will trade a couple of black market ounces for a new mercedes ( ala ANOTHER ) . Probably end up somewhere in between.

Did you hear about the pommie couple that bought a very very old English cottage ( on a site that had foundations for even older cottages ) and while ferreting around underneath came upon an old clay pot-- opened it and found it was full of Roman gold coins. Original owners never made use of their stash but I'll bet it gave them a warm fuzzy feeling. When people no longer trust banks or their government's paper, there are gonna be a lot of clay pots under peoples houses!!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 03:14
Jack Is the Silver Volcano ready to erupt?>(Is the Silver Volcano ready to erupt?) ID#252127:

If the continous drawdown is for fabrication purposes, or by corners ready to sell into fabrication demand; silver could easily exceed $10.
If the forcasts of existing above ground supplies are off by even 100 million ounces, or even more, it seems only a short wait for a double.
Disinflation ( global slwdown ) may effect my thinking, but those guys that run things also control the monetary printing presses.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 03:09
Watcher@ It's quiet out there...too quiet!>(It's quiet out there...too quiet!) ID#240142:
Mr. Armstrong states that long term investments are a dying breed. But then he makes the case for $1,000+ gold in 3-5 years. Also makes the case for $85 dollar oil.

Fact or just coincidence? the gold and oil related companies are now being consolidated. Just who will end up with all that black and yellow gold in the ground?

Let's say I had a few trill to play with....why not grab a chunk of some truly precious commodities when no one else wants them ( after I drive the price down to the 'a'basement level...Swiss sale indeed! Why would they sell what has been the backbone of their economy through two world wars? They might be tight but they ain't stupid!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 02:57
Watcher @Nick>(@Nick) ID#240142:
Do you fancy the black gold, too? Or are all your eggs golden....

I thought it was you that previously posted the PEI link...maybe my memory is failing, alas!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 02:48
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Temptation ( :o}}}}

http://www.pei-intl.com/Research/GOLD/prec-met.jpg

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 02:40
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
DA, SDR
If you go to these search engines and do a search for Normandy,
Tiger Fund and Newcrest
These searches will talk you to the first paragraphs of the articles.
Normandy/Tiger Funds/Gutnick seem as though they are on a large corporite play.
Very interesting reading.
Normandy's bid/ask has been blocked high & low.
Also their options are very unusual at the moment.
Something is going to happen soon I think.
I already have 10 March calls in this company,
So my view is biased. ( :o}}}}}}

Search Australian:
http://www.australian.aust.com/Excite/AT-Allquery.html
Aust Fin Review/Sydney Morning Herald:
http://www.afr.com.au/misc/search.html

Champion de Crespigny counts the beans . . .
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971101/invest/invest2.html

Gutnick dreams of a big new mine
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971101/invest/invest3.html

Syndicates and India mystify the market
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971020/invest/ivcommod.html

Newcrest blows Normandy sale
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971009/invest/invest2.html


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 02:38
Watcher @Strad>(@Strad) ID#240142:
I haven't had the time to fully monitor lately. Glad to see you here. Are you playing in SO. CAL Dec. 17-24 anywhere? Vacation coming and all for me and the better half.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 02:36
Explorer Viceroy Resource looks like a survivor>(Viceroy Resource looks like a survivor) ID#22882:

Earnings at $0.09 Can. over past nine months, cash flow at $0.33 Can. Sure they hedge and get over $400 per ounce, but this may indicate good judgement.
Rothchild support was involved in their early stages, which may be of interest.
I think that Castle Mountain is playing possum and will pleasently surprise down the road.
The unpleasent loss in 1996 was merely writing down Castle Mountain's potential, but Viceroy still gets over $400 per ounce.
Brewery Creek is coming around.
Viceroy at around $3 bucks Canadian should be carefully followed. It looks like a survivor.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 02:35
Watcher @amazing coincidences>(@amazing coincidences) ID#240142:
DJ...if you haven't already then take a look at this link I just posted...how much long term gold can 15 trillion buy?

http://www.pei-intl.com/HMEFRAME.HTM

Again...over 1000 SWC calls purchased in last two weeks for April 98

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 02:31
Strad Master Take your pick...>(Take your pick...) ID#250297:
Wow! My first ever double ( double ) post. Sorry! ( The second one was better. )

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 02:29
Watcher @Nick down under>(@Nick down under) ID#240142:
Those '00 ABX calls are lookin' mighty good...Black & Gold with Platinum trim shall be my colors from henceforth! SWC '98 calls are OI are increasing week by week...It's always darkest before the dawn goldbugs...

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 02:24
Watcher @Show me the $GOLD!!!>(@Show me the $GOLD!!!) ID#240142:
http://www.pei-intl.com/HMEFRAME.HTM

As I spent the last 15 minutes reading this incredible speech, I suddenly came to the conclusion that these BIG TRADERS could be buying that London gold. This is a must read. LGB and Puetx could both be right...now there's an amusing thought. Maybe they were twins separated at birth! ( sibling rivalry and all... )

Seriously, this is an extremely thought provoking read...and thanks to whoever out there in internet land who turned ne on to the link ( was it you Nick? )

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 02:20
Amnesty no probs>(no probs) ID#251165:
Yes TIGER wound up with it. For better or for worse.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 02:16
Kommissar KGB Guy who post on 01:27>(Guy who post on 01:27) ID#273112:

KGB not like when zecrete Zoviet kode posted on the net. Here, the Kitco zite onlei post da gold kode - Kode mean da Gold muss go up, or KGB bekomme pizzed off. DA.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 02:14
DJ More please>(More please) ID#215208:
Amnesty - Good input. Do you confirm that the institutional buyer was Tiger? By the way, a search of Morningstar yields no trace of Tiger. Does someone have a URL that will yield some info on them?

Any comments on if the OZ gold ownership stayed with S. Korea, or could it have been transfered elsewhere.

Have to go now. Must get up early to catch a plane. I'll try to keep up with this conversation in the evenings. Thanks to all for your input.


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 02:11
Mooney...and not so soft cotton landing...doh!>(Mooney...and not so soft cotton landing...doh!) ID#2082:
Sometimes I hate being right. That cotton got SPANKED today. I am talking SPANKED!!! OUCH!! OOH!! KLUNK!!

It not only touched my 70.00 but it punched through it HARD! You got out today whether you liked it or not, eh?

Remember, 6 of 7 is STILL damn good by any means...unless that #7 was a Butt-kicker. I hope you didn't get slammed too badly.

I think now you can watch it linger around 70.00 and jump in by year end. I will continue to be sidelined here...

away...to watch gold linger before jumping on the same elevator...all aboard...next stop..................the Basement...oh my!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 01:53
Amnesty with pleasure>(with pleasure) ID#251165:
THIS IS A PRIORITY ITEM
NEWCREST MINING LIMITED
-----------------------
10 October 1997
Part 1/1
--------
Newcrest Mining Limited ( 'Newcrest' ) announces that it has today
disposed of the entire 11.8% interest held by it in Normandy Mining
Limited.

The interest was acquired by an overseas institutional buyer at
$1.78.

Newcrest continues to hold 36.8 million Normandy 2001 options.

Newcrest will advise of the outcome of the closure of the
equity/gold swap with the ANZ Bank early next week.

For further information, please contact:
Gary Scanlan - Executive General Manager Finance
Telephone: ( 61-3 ) 9522 5333 Facsimile: ( 61-3 ) 9510 3416

Equity/Gold swap. ANZ held Normandy parcel and lent Gold to Newcrest.
Problems with telfer and forward delivery deadlines could have had something to do with it.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 01:30
Test @desperate>(@desperate) ID#36146:

Can't view any 11/11 posts!!

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 01:27
ţ ɽ >(ɽ ) ID#20324:
i a J @ X

@ @ J W A e Q ڻ n
S J A @ Q K E G
k D i a A o J A v v k D
C

@ @ A L N O L A
t u n n N o F C

@ @ i a o A v { { n A J S
P N ~ C

@ @ J j O C

^餤Ѩ

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 01:22
DJ Plot thickens>(Plot thickens) ID#215208:
SDRer - Do I have a story to tell? I thought I was just having some fun tracking down some suspicious looking connections that appeared in a WSJ article. However, in poking around it seems that I stumbled onto something very interesting. There is mounting evidence that the recent squeezes in platinum and palladium were engineered by a small group of people, who drove the price down, then cornered the market via buying hedge sales, etc., then ran the price up. There is also evidence that this is now in progress again with silver and gold. If you go back to my 19:35 of 11/10 you will find the beginning of this thread. I hope we can get more input.

BTW, if you go back to the original 19:35 post, you will find that Goldman Sachs is one of the companies that purchased the hedge sales of PL and PA from SWC. In scanning the list of members of the Group of 30, guess what? GS is on the list! I also see Andrew Crockett GM for the Bank of International Settlements of Switzerland. Wonder if he is connected to the folks that made the announcement of the possible Swiss gold sale?

Do you have any more to add? What is this Newcrest/Normandy connection all about.? I vaguely remember some discussion of this at the time it was going on.

Now let's assume that Sir Roderick is behind the Oz gold sale. If as Amnesty reported, this sale was privately brokered to S. Korea, what is the chance that S. Korea passed the gold through to another party ( one of our conspirators ) , in return for some help with their financial problems? Its possible I suppose.

Amnesty, I suspect you have more to add to all of this. Let's have it.


Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 01:14
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com) ID#227238:
mark twain ( good ole us of a ) : Someday, after you have mastered See Spot run, you might spend some time with Twain. Having done so, you might even look back at your latest offering with some small sense of shame. ..... Displaying, as it does, a total lack of thought, content and composition.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 01:04
Strad Master DOW - One Trillion?>(DOW - One Trillion?) ID#250297:
DONALD, NICK, & PUETZ: ( I wrote this out once and it got lost in cyberspace when I posted it. Hope I can reconstruct it from memory. ) Thanks, guys, for the great info regarding 401K money. Now I will have ammunition to argure the point with those who believe that automatic 401K liquidity will cause the markets to rise indefinitely. I'm always amazed by those who cite the DOW 10,000 figure. Why do they stop there? Why not DOW 1,000,000? If, indeed, a pradigm shift has occurred and cyclic behaviour has been eleiminated from the markets, why shouldn't the stock market continue to rise ad infinitum? What if DOW 10,000 were actually reached someday? Wouldn't they just push the target up some more? Reminds me of a drug addict: Just one more hit - THEN I'll quit. Of, course, I'm sure the analogy between drug addiction and market mania is one that Kitcoites are very familiar with. Thanks again.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 01:02
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com) ID#227238:
D.A. ( 22:25 ) : An absolutely superb exposition on currencies and the positive role of speculators. If only more people would take the time to understand the connection between state governance and banking, nooses would indeed be displayed in all the proper quarters. Sigh! and alas, it is not to be.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 00:58
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene) ID#173274:
mark twain -- Swell! ( facetiously spoken! ) , and what should you care about it anyway since most of your neighbors, counties, states, and your Federal government aren't any or much different! Look out your own backdoor, dufuss.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 00:53
Strad Master DOW One Trillion! >(DOW One Trillion! ) ID#250297:
DONALD, NICK, & PUETZ: Thanks so much for the 401K info. Now I can make a reasonable arguement for a market decline with those who cite the continuing inflow of liquidity from 401K's into the stock market as reason for an endless uptrend. I often am amazed by those who spit out the arbitrary DOW 10,000 number. Why stop there? Why not DOW 1,000,000? If, indeed, a paradigm shift has occurred the DOW should never stop going up. Right? Clearly, that's absurd. What if it did ever get to 10,000? Would they be satisfied then or just inch the target up still further? It reminds me of a drug addict - Just one more hit and THEN I'll quit. Of course, the similarities between drug adicts and market maniacs are not lost on this group. Thanks again.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 00:52
Strad Master DOW One Trillion! >(DOW One Trillion! ) ID#250297:
DONALD, NICK, & PUETZ: Thanks so much for the 401K info. Now I can make a reasonable arguement for a market decline with those who cite the continuing inflow of liquidity from 401K's into the stock market as reason for an endless uptrend. I often am amazed by those who spit out the arbitrary DOW 10,000 number. Why stop there? Why not DOW 1,000,000? If, indeed, a paradigm shift has occurred the DOW should never stop going up. Right? Clearly, that's absurd. What if it did ever get to 10,000? Would they be satisfied then or just inch the target up still further? It reminds me of a drug addict - Just one more hit and THEN I'll quit. Of course, the similarities between drug adicts and market maniacs are not lost on this group. Thanks again.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 00:44
open sesame>(sesame) ID#24294:
Au

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 00:36
A.Goose @pondCentral>(@pondCentral) ID#20135:
I can't seem to get to the new day again.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 00:35
mark twain good ole us of a>(good ole us of a) ID#273273:
i think your all nuttin but a bunch of communist in fill traitors.
specially you guys down there in kangaroo land.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 00:28
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene) ID#173274:
Be extremely cautious today. I believe gold and silver are at a 'crossraod' type of day. One where they either PROVE themselves ( for awhile ) by moving UP or DOWN.

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 00:07
SDRer @Reality.check>(@Reality.check) ID#287277:
To: DJ@ ( I don't believe in too much coincidence.

I gather you're tracing whose buying? I'm coming down another trail altogether. I think it's incredible that the paths cross.
http://www.group30.org/g30_mem.htm
As Allen will confirm, this is a very high profile bunch of international CBs, heads of 3 biggest NY houses, GS, ML, MS, real high profile academcians. I wondered what a mining magnate was doing at the table. It just didn't seem to fit. It didn't 'feel' right. Got a story to tell?

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 00:01
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene) ID#173274:
The CBOT has 1000 oz contracts available. Open interest is SMALL, so unless you are not going to be actively trading them, but rather, taking delivery ( ? ) , I would NOT recommend them.

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