KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:58
The Major @ An Interesting Discussion>(@ An Interesting Discussion) ID#372425:
Nick:That Dow chart looks UG-AL-LEEEE...make no wonder the CNBC tribe
were sounding like they got just did cocain as the day came to an end.
I guess they feel all's well on the bubble tonight .To be continued---

It was interesting the MSFT decision was handed down today.Hummmmm

GSC:Tax loss selling is on a lot of peoples minds,but wonder what % have
already taken their losses and moved on to the bubble-ship?To take more?

ASIA:Wouldn't want to be an Austrailian.:- ) I think it's just a matter of
time till the true intentions of Mainland China become more obvious to
the masses.Who will stop them?NO--ONE...THAT'S WHO.They are quite willing
to regress back into the dark world from whence they have control of the
entire region.A lack of understanding/acceptance of democracy is clear.

Lastly:Could we be seeing now the true value for countries who held gold
for times of need?That's to say..they are now using this reserve for what
it was intended?To get them out of difficulty?Did any country expect they
would never need to sell at some time?

Oh And Ted....how are the sheep treating you;- )

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:57
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
Nick ( @Aussie ) : I recognize the 1987 pattern in your Oz stock -- It had to be a gold stock! I don't know Austrailian gold mining stocks, so I will leave that choice up to others!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:56
Jack Beware of companies with reputed large reserves>(Beware of companies with reputed large reserves) ID#252127:

It takes both money, real expertise and a willing ore body to make a successful mine. The gold price an all important factor, must be much higher than today's.
Look closly at the XAU and you will see that few have the ability to earn good money, even at $400 plus gold; be the reason debt, to many outstanding shares or large reserves that cannot hack it. Cash flow is important, but investors like solid consistant earnings.
Such stocks become interesting only at very low prices.
If one looks at development companies with good orebodies, but which require huge monetary input and the all important mining expertise, I often wonder what gold price _if any- will make them tick.
Look carefully, as not only finance and technology are against you, but the power of government lurks to keep a fair gold price from occuring.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:50
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD @WORLD GOVERNMENT>(@WORLD GOVERNMENT) ID#431263:
Before I retire to my wasserbett, I thought I would leave my freunds here at Kitco with the following food for thought from Dr. Henry Kissinger while addressing the Bilderbergers meeting at Evian, France on May 21, 1992. TODAY AMERICANS WOULD BE OUTRAGED IF UN TROOPS ENTERED LOS ANGELES TO RESTORE ORDER; TOMORROW THEY WILL BE GRATEFUL! THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THEY WERE TOLD THERE WAS AN OUTSIDE THREAT FROM BEYOND, WHETHER REAL OR PROMULGATED, THAT THREATENED OUR VERY EXISTENCE. IT IS THEN THAT ALL PEOPLES OF THE WORLD WILL PLEAD WITH WORLD LEADERS TO DELIVER THEM FROM THIS EVIL. THE ONE THING EVERY MAN FEARS IS THE UNKNOWN. WHEN PRESENTED WITH THIS SCENARIO, INDIVIUAL RIGHTS WILL BE WILLINGLY RELINQUISHED FOR THE GUARANTEE OF THEIR WELL BEING GRANTED TO THEM BY THEIR WORLD GOVERNMENT! ( Could Herr Kissinger be trying to tell us something? Is this what UFO's, black helicopters, cattle mutilations and alien abductions are all about--a globalist plot to deceive the world into begging the UN for WORLD GOVERNMENT? Something to sleep on. Just be careful you don't wake up in a cold sweat! Gute Nacht meine Freunde! Schlaf wohl! And make sure your doors and windows are secured. Don't want anbody here at Kitco to be abducted! Except perhaps those infantile little arschlochs who keep driving everybody away!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:50
Ted @ the end>(@ the end) ID#364147:
Nytol......

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:49
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Try Again

Which OZ stock ( check Picture ) performed like a rocket prior to the '87 crash.

Winner receives the right to purchase as many cheap out of the money calls in either gold or silver as their wheelbarrow can hold.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:45
JTF @Home -- Nick - great graphics!>(@Home -- Nick - great graphics!) ID#57232:
Nick ( @Aussie ) : Your 23:10 post on the Dow is even better than your am posts! Is that flowing pattern of multiple curves on the lower graph a series of progressively longer time period moving averages? What ever it is says alot! Could we be part way through a head and shoulders in the DOW rather than already in a bear? Your data does suggest it.
Now ------ if some other regular Kitco posters could contribute in an entire day what you have done with one post --------!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:38
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Competition of the day.

Which OZ stock ( check Picture ) performed like a rocket prior to the '87 crash.

Winner receives the right to purchase as many cheap out of the money calls in either gold or silver as their wheelbarrow can hold.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:33
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
Did he have a premonition about Billiary:

Politicians are the same all over. They promise to build a bridge even when there is no river.

--Nikita Khrushcev

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:33
LGB @Nick, Witchita>(@Nick, Witchita) ID#315256:
Gee Nick, and just when I was going to thank you for the excellent charts this morning! Witchita, words of wisdom myman, words of wisdom....

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:31
JTF @Home - Dollars, Oil and Gold again!!>(@Home - Dollars, Oil and Gold again!!) ID#57232:
Vronsky: I like your fictitious Covert cost of Gold posting. If there were such a meeting with the oil producers, and the western world, a mutual agreement that benefits both sides might well have been made. This clearly states what each side might want. Part of the Middle Eastern concern could very well have been fear of a repeat to the 1987 crash, and the loss of much of their dollar investments. There are still some unclear items for our LBMA Sherlock to investigate:
How could only 1/4 of the world's oil producers ( in volume ) control the oil supply that effectively? Were non-middle eastern oil producers unable ( unaware? ) to benefit from the low gold prices?
Another scenario ( no pun intended ) is that the Western world ( since 1970's oil crisis ) encouraged development of non-middle eastern oil sources, and pushed up the price of the dollar ( with gold sales, as well as real gold sales ) so that the price of oil would remain at the $20/barrel or so price -- to keep the biggest inflationary threat to the western world at bay. The oil producers would benefit from the strong dollar,and would be less likely to sell it for gold. This would be an overriding goal of the powers that be ( Central Banks ) , as they would remember the 70's oil crisis very well, regardless of the needs of the oil producing states. In both scenarios, proffessionals at the LBMA and elsewhere got wise, and pushed the price of gold down even more so they ( ie Big Trader, etal ) could buy the gold at a fire sale, thus beating the CB's at their own game. One wonders also that if A Greenspan is serious about a returning to the gold standard, the machinery for this mught well have been tested in either of these above scenarios.
You story is more colorful than mine, however.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:30
The Wichita Lineman LGB bothers you, really ?>(LGB bothers you, really ?) ID#374200:
I for one don't see what the fuss is about with LGB, he's just a poster like anyone else, I welcome everybody who has some insight

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:27
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
SILVER: Winnie the Pooh would make a great dictator. His ultimate dream is the possesion of Honey, he has an excellent outlook on life, and my life would be hell being run by a gold bear.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:20
Cueball @PingPong.Chart>(@PingPong.Chart) ID#342125:
Anyone?

Jin,

Tell me when Thai Bank is a buy! Thai country is beautifully golden, as is yours..

Gentlemen, & Ladies,

What matters here remains as always, the test of time poster.

Skipping is fast.

Who was that, with all the caps?


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:18
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Gold, Silver, Platinium

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:17
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
AU Indices
Johannesburg, OZ & XAU Gold Indices.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:14
Ted @ EB>(@ EB) ID#364147:
Horse+ buggy too progressive for Cape Breton....

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:14
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD @DICTATORSHIP CLOSER THANK U THINK>(@DICTATORSHIP CLOSER THANK U THINK) ID#431263:
Before you sign off for the Aussies tonight better go back and read the beginning of the last paragraph of Tolerant1's 22:25 post. If this is true, that dictatorship you're yearning for SILVER IS A LOT CLOSER THAN YOU AND I THINK!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:13
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
SILVER: My thinking, reading and gut tell me that silver is dirt cheap at current prices. I would go ahead and make your purchase. I am sure that the prices which would make you sell, ( 14cents ) won't even come to mind.

The silver market has some intense supply and demand factors taking hold. Recent days have seen large numbers in the news moving out of warehouses to Japan and the Middle East.

In addition everything I read says that supplies are getting very, very tight. Do you own any silver mining shares. I think that Silver Standard Resources is a solid buy, also I like First Silver Reserve, and Avino Mines.

The Goldbug at Gold-Eagle is an excellent source of information. I own the companies above, and I get the Goldbug Newsletter.

As some have pointed out, a big player could have tremendous impact on silver and skyrocket the price in a couple of days. The Silver stocks could go through the roof.

I really like the above companies. I think the Goldbug is an excellent source of info and the fellow that writes it, in my opinion, has integrity, knowledge and keen insight.

Will Silver go up in the next six months. My answer is yes. Anyone of of a number of factors could push the price up. The single best reason is the fundamentals, mix that with all of the other items and it could move up aggressively.

I hope I have been helpful

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:10
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
LBG - My own thoughts.
One of the many reasons regulars here would love a sqeeeelch button or registration setup is that it would reduce the bitching.
I for one would love to see this site free of the excessive garbage.
You yourself are very good at bitching, you just don't want to stop attacking people and proving to them how right you are, are right you were and how right you will be. Boy what a complex!
I find in my life that I make many mistakes. I am willing to accept them, learn from them, and go forward from them.
But the last thing I want to hear is from some other dude who knows nothing about me patronising me.
Lay off the GOD complex.
Stop being the snotty nosed kid who knows everything, and hey, you know what, people might even start listening.
Nothing like a good conversation amongst like minded people.

Enough of that I hate bitching!!!!!

Hang Seng down another 379pts -2.92%

Here's a coup[le of charts to cheer you all along.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:08
Silver @home>(@home) ID#289349:
Hmmm. Hillary in jackboots, crop in hand. Could be interesting.


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:02
GOLDFINGER COUNT YOUR BLESSINGS>(COUNT YOUR BLESSINGS) ID#433171:
FREEDOM IS A GIFT. I can't imagine what it would be like without it. America The Great must prevail to preserve our freedoms not matter how it comes down. Let us be thankfull for what we have. Everybody is rooting gold on, but I for one hope I never have to use it. It won't be pretty with or without it.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:01
Gold@>(Gold@) ID#2082:
down .20

away

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:01
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD @ THE DICTATORSHIP>(@ THE DICTATORSHIP) ID#431263:
HERR LGB--OR FRAU HILLARY! GOTT IM HIMMEL! THE WORLD'S FIRST FEMINIST DICTATOR! Can you imagine what life would be like under HER? Remember health care reform?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 23:00
Ted-no mail?>(Ted-no mail?) ID#2082:
Is Canada still using the horse and buggy

away...to walk the mail faster...through rain,sleet,snow,hail...

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 22:55
LGB @Dictate this>(@Dictate this) ID#310407:
AlGore would be happy to apply for the Dictator job.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 22:53
GOLDFINGER CHEESEHEAD>(CHEESEHEAD) ID#433171:
RIGHT ON ......

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 22:49
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD @THE DICTATORSHIP>(@THE DICTATORSHIP) ID#431263:
HERR SILVER! How much you got? Ever heard of Auschwitz, Buchenwald, Siberia and the gulags? A dictator will not only ask for your money and wife--he'll demand from you your life!! Sic HELL! One last comment. Be careful what you ask for your might just get it! Got it?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 22:44
Ted @ more Asian volatility>(@ more Asian volatility) ID#364147:
Taiwan up 299.52 ( 4.09% ) .....Hong Kong down 261.66 ( 2.02% )

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 22:44
panda @>(@) ID#30116:
Democracy -- When you elect someone to make your decisions for you.

Constitutional Republic -- When you elect someone to represent you and your positions.

We used to live in a Republic last time that I checked.


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 22:42
Silver @home>(@home) ID#289349:
Tolerant1 ( Concerning your post on China ) - I'm starting to wonder if we might not be better off under the control of a dictator than we currently are under our present government. Could any dictator require more wealth than is currently being extracted from us by our current government? How much could a dictator and his cronies spend?


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 22:33
LGB @RJ>(@RJ) ID#310407:
What perfectly ironic timing RJ. Just after I mention your earlier posts of today and ask you to post under your own name, you pop up with the speech. All are welcome I say. Registration? Poppycock. This has been a public forum for quite some time and so it should remain. Thankfully, attempts to turn it into a little club for professionals has continued to fail. AS I've said before, Bart should be thanked for the site, not bitched at constantly by whiners. I'm surprsied someone suddenly e mailed you posts I've made shocking you with my obsessions RJ.

As to India, when I scrolled back and read the way that unfolded, it ocurred to me that the story had been around for months as to the new Govt. policy and that info. had been posted here.

To all, registration is a bad idea. In any crowd you'll have a variety of styles and personalities. While RJ has expertise in one narrow speficic area that is market related, many others contribute and appreciate info. from a wife variety of sources. Personally, as I said yesterday, I read everyone on the site to glean whatever new info I can learn ( with the obvious exceptions of the truly imbalanced such as Friend of Kitco , HepCat, etc. ) .

You turn this place into a clubby little place for so called elitist experts, and you'll exclude a lot of valuable participation. Whiners should go off and expend the energy to create their own little forum where they can make the rules instead of co-opting this site. Meanwhile, spirited debate is the American way, satirical and biting included.

Let the attacks be... no on second thought.... ignore this post and put your own thoughts here instead of constantly angling to exclude others.

( Something I have YET to ask for.... Nazi fascists make your own site! )

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 22:31
Silver @home>(@home) ID#289349:
Tolerant1 - I'll take your word on it. Offer me your advice on this. I'm considering adding about 400 oz. of silver to my minimal holdings of 1600 oz. I've been holding out for silver at 4.80. Will I see this anytime soon?
What are your short term ( 6 month ) projections for silver?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 22:27
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home) ID#228128:
RJ: If and when Bart incorporates a squelch button you should consider returning. This along with the ID# should allow for the Bozo quotient to be kept at managable numbers.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 22:25
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
And they want to warn the Chinese president eh.

Red China and Other Nations

In The U.S. During The New World Order By Gurudas Copyright 1997 Gurudas

U.S. tax payers are subsidizing a $138 million loan guarantee to build ships for the China Ocean Shipping Co. ( COSCO ) in Alabama. This company is controlled by the Chinese military. In addition, Panama recently agreed to lease the port on each end of the Panama Canal to a COSCO subsidiary, Hutchinson Corporation. According to the March 29, 1997 Charleston Daily Mail, Panama peremptorily closed the bidding, secretly changed the rules, and simply awarded the contract to Hutchinson before the American or other firms could even know what was happening. Documents show that at least 3 more lucrative deals offered by U.S. companies were rejected. Obviously Panama would not have done this without U.S. urging. Rep. Traficant complained in Congress that Red China is now going to manufacture boots for the U.S. Army. On April 1, 1997 the AP said for the first time since the 1950s Chinese ships can now dock near U.S. military installations with only a day's notice. And there are plans to bring Chinese troops to the U.S. for training exercises.

COSCO has been attempting, with White House support, to lease the closed naval facility in Long Beach. Under the agreement U.S. Customs could only inspect one in 8 COSCO ships so it will be impossible to prevent illegal drugs and weapons from entering the U.S. Strategic Investments ( May, 1997 ) said the Chinese military has agreed to distribute opium/heroin for Burma. Last year U.S. Customs in Oakland seized 2,000 AK-47s delivered on a COSCO ship. According to federal documents these weapons were going to street gangs in southern California. Wang Jun chairman of Polytech, the manufacturer of these weapons, attended a White House function in February-1996. On April 14, 1997 the AP said two truckloads of illegal Chinese arms bound for Mexico were found in a San Diego warehouse. According to the evidence there were four other truckloads of arms from China.

Recently a BBC documentary was shown in London with Chinese troops practicing amphibious landings in the Formosa Straits. When BBC newsmen were allowed to interview some of these soldiers, they asked: What are you preparing to use this training for? The soldiers said: For the coming invasion of America! The scheduled rebroadcast the next day of this documentary was cancelled. The Senate passed Amendment 1122 to the 1993 crime bill to bring Hong Kong police into the U.S. to join our federal police. ( Congressional Record November 5, 1993 S15183. See Section 5108 in this bill. ) With Red China now taking possession of Hong Kong, this law would have provided legal cover to bring Red Chinese troops into the U.S. This clause was defeated in the joint House/Senate conference.


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 22:23
Ted @ capebreton>(@ capebreton) ID#364147:
Re-inflation: Average NHL ticket price is up 6.4% from last year...

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 22:10
GOLDFINGER RE:HIGHRISE>(RE:HIGHRISE) ID#433171:
Everything will be OK after the fall out in about 5 years. This is a dead cat bounce and then look for a hugh sell off later in the month or before.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 22:07
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
White House warns Chinese president of possible protests in
U.S. visit

The Clinton administration has warned Chinese President Jiang Zemin and his
advisers that their impending eight-day visit to the United States probably will
not be as well received by the public as Beijing had hoped. National Security
Adviser Sandy Berger has told the Chinese they could well face protests over
such issues as Tibet, human rights, and labor conditions of Chinese workers.
U.S. officials say it became clear in planning the visit, which begins October 26,
that the Chinese believe the U.S. government can dictate the level and number
of protests. They think we can control everything that happens here, says a
senior U.S. official. Of course, they're wrong. U.S. officials, who expect the
Chinese leader's visit to Harvard to be particularly troublesome, say they have
been puzzled by the level of Chinese misunderstanding of American culture,
especially as it applies to political protests. While administration officials will try
hard to make the trip as positive as possible, they concede that public
demonstrations could tarnish the visit in Chinese eyes.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 22:07
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
And they want to give this guy the fast track eh!

Balanced Budget: [As president] I would present a five-year plan to balance the budget. --Bill Clinton, as a candidate for president

( CNN's Larry King Live!, 6/4/92 ) : I think it can be done--well, it can--first of all, it can be done in seven years. --Bill Clinton, New Hampshire radio interview, 5/19/95

I think it clearly can be done in less than 10 years. I think we can get there by a date certain. --Bill Clinton, same radio interview, 5/19/95

But I do not believe it is good policy, based on my understanding of this budget--which is pretty good now-- to do it in seven years. --Bill Clinton, Rose Garden, 5/23/95

Finally, balance the budget in 10 years. ... Now mind you, we could do it in seven years... --Bill Clinton, address to the nation, 6/16/95

Well, I think we could reach it in seven years. I think we could reach it in eight years. I think we could reach it in nine years. ... So we're between seven and nine now. --Bill Clinton, press conference, 10/19/95 Middle-Class Tax Cut

I'm Bill Clinton and I think you deserve a change. That's why I've offered a plan to get the economy moving again, starting with a middle-class tax cut... --Bill Clinton campaign commercial, 1/16/92

I want to make it very clear that this middle class tax cut, in my view, is central to any attempt we're going to make to have a short-term economic strategy and a long- term fairness strategy which is part of getting this country going again. --Bill Clinton, New Hampshire primary debate, 1/19/92

From New Hampshire forward, for reasons that absolutely mystified me, the press thought the most important issue in the race was the middle class tax cut --President-elect Bill Clinton, news conference, 1/14/93

...I will tell you this: I will not raise taxes on the middle-class to pay for these programs. --Bill Clinton, presidential debate, 10/19/92

To middle-class Americans who have paid a great deal over the last 12 years and from whom I ask a contribution tonight... --Bill Clinton, announcing the largest tax increase in history, State of the Union address, 2/17/93

Probably there are people in this room still mad at me at that budget because you think I raised your taxes too much. It might surprise you to know that I think I raised them too much too. --Bill Clinton, remarks at Houston fund-raiser, 10/17/95

I take full responsibility, proudly, for what we did. It [raising taxes] was the right thing to do. --Bill Clinton, press conference, 10/19/95 Welfare Reform

...I have a plan to do even better, to end welfare as we know it and make it a second chance, not a way of life. --candidate Bill Clinton, Detroit Economic Club, 8/21/92

This week we offered a plan to end welfare as we know it... --Bill Clinton, radio address, 6/18/94

I wasn't pleased with it either. --Bill Clinton agreeing with columnist/author Ben Wattenberg that his welfare proposals had been soft and weak ( Wattenberg's column, The Washington Times, 11/2/95 )

...I like it. It really would end welfare as we know it. --Bill Clinton on the Republican welfare reform bill that passed the Senate 87-12 on September 19, 1995 ( Larry King Radio Town Meeting, 9/21/95 )

December 6, 1995, Clinton vetoes bipartisan welfare reform as part of the Balanced Budget Act of 1995.

January 9, 1996, Clinton vetoes bipartisan welfare reform as a freestanding bill.

Send me a bipartisan welfare reform bill that will really move people from welfare to work and do right by our children, and I will sign it. --Bill Clinton, State of the Union, 1/23/96

[Clinton] set a new price for his signature on a welfare system overhaul, asserting that the Senate proposal he indicated he would support last fall will have to be changed for him to support it now. --The Washington Post, 1/31/96

Remarkable Consistency? I think most of us learned some time ago, if you don't like the president's position on a particular issue, you simply need to wait a few weeks. If you can follow the White House on this budget, you are a whole hell of a lot smarter than I am. --Democrat Rep. David Obey ( The Washington Post, 6/14/95 )

Clintonesque: A style of leadership characterized by flip- flops, half measures and muddled strategizing. --columnist Gerald Parshall ( U.S. News & World Report, 12/26/94 )

Full Clinton: a back-flipping, buck-passing dive off the lowest board possible. --Richard Cohen ( The Washington Post, 10/24/95 )

Plainly put, almost no one thinks [Clinton] believes a word he says. Or, more precisely, he believes everything he says at the moment he emphatically says it, and continues to believe it full throttle right up to the moment he repudiates it. He has the weird sincerity of the intellectual sociopath, convinced that when he speaks, truth is an option but convenience is an imperative. --George F. Will ( Newsweek, 11/13/95 )

This president salts his remarks with so many inventions, half-truths, and self-serving exaggerations that reporters who cover him often have to choose between truth-squadding every speech or ignoring his fibs. --Carl M. Cannon, The ( Baltimore ) Sun White House correspondent ( The Weekly Standard, 10/2/95 )

The larger danger of his situational speech--designing fictions to fit the moment--is that it vindicates public cynicism of political leadership. --columnist Robert J. Samuelson, The Washington Post, 11/1/95

I dislike the word 'lies,' but Clinton exploits such forbearance ( widespread in the press ) to spread untruths. --columnist Robert J. Samuelson, The Washington Post, 1/17/96

[Bill Clinton] gives the appearance of taking stands--for some sort of tax cut, some sort of welfare reform, some sort of balanced budget--but these are ploys, mirages... He doesn't fight for anything substantive--except, of course, re-election. --Joe Klein ( Newsweek, 10/23/95 )


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 22:02
RJ ..... Explanation .....>(..... Explanation .....) ID#411259:

Received many e-mails regarding my decision to stop posting hereabouts. For the kind words and support, thank you. I would like to clarify the reason for my departure, some have termed it whining and others, taking my ball and going home.

A lurker here couldn't resist e-mailing me some recent posts from LGB. I must admit, I had no idea he had such an obsession with me. He seems all consumed with my ego and has apparently written hundreds of words in condemnation. The funny thing is, I quit reading his posts some time ago. I called him a punk and never looked back. Seems he never got over it, he is fuming still. Reminds me of the man who, lost for words in an argument, sputters, Yeah, but. Yeah, but. ) Lurky, however, had nothing to do with my disgust at how these pages have fallen.

Following the slew of sex bitch posts by a poster one would guess to be HepCat, and the hostile response to my post of new information, I got tired of the whole thing. I even went back to review some of the offensive posts from last week, and could find no trace. Perhaps Bart removed those particular posts. Sadly, I see more of the same ahead. It is apparently the intent of this A-hole ( sorry Lurky, not talking 'bout you ) is to disrupt and destroy this site. After that last vitriolic spewing of venom, I decided I was embarrassed to have my words share the same pages. I have recommended this site to many, and this is now what they find. I will not be recommending this site again until things improve.

I have suggested registration and a cash payment for such. It seems as if the only solution is to make it too costly for the Heps of the world to crap all over the place. Bart has declined the suggestion. Who can blame him? This site must take up a tremendous amount of his time to begin with. Having to act as Kitco Cop is asking too much. All should be thankful the site is available at all and, as always, I salute Bart's efforts.

I respect many members of this very unique site. I suspect many here feel as I do about the spoilers among us. I love a good debate and even enjoy a good little fight occasionally. It seems as if some, either limited of intellect or of words, do not know where to draw the line, or when to let it lie. Others are here to destroy; they are succeeding.

The catalyst for my decision was the response to my post about India. I was actually pretty excited about the news. I think this whole India thing could lend support to the gold market and finally get it going back up. I would love to start recommending to my clients that they start buying gold again. The know it all responses to my post, followed hard on the heels of the love bitch posts of the day before made me sick of the whole thing. Those responses to my post had nothing useful to say, no reason to respond but to insult. As most of you would agree, I can hold my own under any barrage, but the acrimonious tone of late has sucked the fun right out of this place. If I may quote myself, Who needs this?

As any consistent poster here will attest: It takes a lot of time and a lot of effort to be involved with this group. I believe most posters here are sincere. I don't think people are here trying to drum up business ( except for the e-gold guy ) . Then why go through all this work? If not for personal gain, then it must be done with an earnest effort to share and learn. I believe the majority of members here fall into this category. Others here are just in love with their own words, a failing to which I have been occasionally guilty. Still others are here1 to just fight, and to those, I will leave them boxing their own shadows. I'm out.

Thanks for the many e-mails and for the public pronouncements in my support. Know that the warm feelings are returned in kind. For those that would like to correspond occasionally, I can be reached at rjd@pacbell.net. I will tune in from time to time to see if there has been any change. For the gold bears out there, don't let the goldbugs get swept away by their own enthusiasm. A caution now and again that the gold bear is not dead yet would help to keep heads out of the clouds. For the goldbugs among you, I may soon join your ranks. Early 1998 is looking pretty strong for the blessed yellow. See ya'.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 22:00
Donald @NewRulersOfHongKongGetTough>(@NewRulersOfHongKongGetTough) ID#26793:
http://www.smh.com.au:80/daily/content/971013/world/world7.html

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:58
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD @BEGGER THY NEIGHBOR BEFORE HE BEGGARS ME >(@BEGGER THY NEIGHBOR BEFORE HE BEGGARS ME ) ID#431263:
Occurs to me that what we're about to see is something James Dines has written about at GOLD-EAGLE in an article entitled, The Coming Competitive Currency Devaluations! Sounds like competitive currency protectionism to me ( at the expense of the common man on the street per usual ) !

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:55
HighRise what next>(what next) ID#401237:
World Commission on the Environment - On the news tonight Korbechev now serves on this commission, he may be the chairman? Gorbi was head of the KGB at the same time Bush was head of the CIA right?

Another, I think, said that Gold is being sold to keep the price of Oil low. Japan who has the most interest in keeping the price of Oil low sold gold this AM. The way I understand the relationship from other's post is that the Oil Cos. take their $ and buy Gold. If the price of Gold is cheap the price of Oil can remain low. The only problem is that Japan may be running out of Gold?

Taiwan Taiwan Weighted TWII 9:31PM 7643.83 +327.05 +4.47%
Asia markets coming back. Everything must be OK now?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:48
Donald @Jin, This from the BBC>(@Jin, This from the BBC) ID#26793:
OCTOBER 20 1997



Thai baht plunges on
resignation

Several thousand Thai businessmen and
office workers have demonstrated in
Bangkok, demanding the resignation of the
prime minister, Chaowalit Yongchaiyudh.

The protest, in the financial district, followed
the announcement by the Thai finance
minister, Thanong Bidaya, that he was
stepping down -- two days after the Prime
Minister reversed a cabinet decision to
increase oil taxes.

The renewed political uncertainty in Thailand
prompted a plunge in the Thai currency, the
baht. At one point, it fell to a new record low on
international exchange markets.

Correspondents say there's growing doubt
over whether Mr Chaowalit has the political will
to push through an austerity programme,
designed to meet the requirements of an
IMF-led economic rescue package A renewed
sense of crisis in Thailand may infect other
markets in the region. In neighbouring Malysia,
which announced its own austerity budget on
Friday, the currency and stock markets have
fallen sharply.





Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:41
The Wichita Lineman @ Cherokee et al, check Vista Gold, VGZ.Amex>(@ Cherokee et al, check Vista Gold, VGZ.Amex) ID#374200:
Cherokee, I am serious when I say 25 cents on the dollar. For one of the more secure plays, I suggest you look at Vista Gold on the Amex and Toronto. I am in heavy at .60 Cdn and will be bloody mad if drops significantly more.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:39
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD @REMOTE VIEWING>(@REMOTE VIEWING) ID#431263:
HERR ALLEN--SORRY FOR THE REDUNDANT POST--GREAT MINDS MUST THINK ALIKE!: )
HERR TOLERANT1--Was wondering when someone was going to mention HERR STRONG! As you aptly warn, THIS MAN IS DANGEROUS!!!! Here's just one of many examples I could quote: Speaking before the 1992 Earth Summit ( which he chaired and at which Al GORE was present ) he is quoted as having said ( without any protest from the US I might add ) , IS IT THE ONLY HOPE FOR THE PLANET THAT THE INDUSTRIALIZED CIVILIZATIONS COLLAPSE? ISN'T IT OUR RESPONSIBILITY TO BRING THAT ABOUT!! Perhaps this is but the first attempt by the globalists to destabilize Japan and SE ASIA, then the US and Europe and ultimately prevent China from industrializing any further!
THE PLOT continues to THICKEN!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:38
Donald @BankOfJapanOutOfOptions>(@BankOfJapanOutOfOptions) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/20/y0004_z00_3.html

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:37
The Wichita Lineman @ tolerant1 re Maurice strong>(@ tolerant1 re Maurice strong) ID#374200:
Re: Maurice Strong, Tolerant, I know that strong is no billionarie, thats for sure. ten years ago I was in York University's environmental studies program and Strong was involved in the earth summit, the green plan, etcetera. I asked him bluntly at a seminar how a man like himself who built his fortune by being an exploiter of canada's natural resources should have any credibility in his new found robes with the UN and the rest of it. He launched into a discourse on the merits of sustainable development that would have borred william f buckley. I don't care for the man and his agendas are very murky. You are absolutely right to be wary of him.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:31
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Golden CH: When I read all that news I thought Asian stocks would all be down this morning. Not true; they are mostly on the upside. I guess they have Dipsters there too.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:28
Donald @JapanCentralBankerExpressesConcern>(@JapanCentralBankerExpressesConcern) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/20/z0009_25.html

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:25
LGB @Cherokee, RJ>(@Cherokee, RJ) ID#315256:
Yes Cherokee, the list was not exhaustive and only the tip of the iceburg. We could add mountains of debt crises, and a long list of other potential landmines to the future health of financial markets. We could probably make a list 10 times as long if we all put our minds to it.

RJ, ( and clones of RJ ) re your posts of 19:22, 19:29, and all earlier ones as Regular Poster Another Poster et al, you're not foolin anyone, least of all moi.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:25
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD @GLOBAL STAGFLATION>(@GLOBAL STAGFLATION) ID#431263:
HERR DONALD--Danke for your timely posts from Asia! Looks to me like Asia is about to get hit by the WORST of both DEFLATION and INFLATION simultaneaously! Deja vu the US in the late 70'S. Something Carter used to refer to as STAGFLATION! RISING prices for goods due to a plunging currency, AND FALLING purchasing power due to slow growth, rising un/underemployment and higher interest rates to save the currency from further depreciation! Remember the PAIN INDEX! Guess what? IT'S BACK!!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:23
Speed @hogging the disk space tonight>(@hogging the disk space tonight) ID#286199:
Wichita: It staggers the mind to think about how much money there is in just one country, the U.S. I can only grapple with the concept of trillions of dollars. As long as the psychology of the markets is upbeat, the game will continue. This is one huge bull market. My take on gold is that it will stop dropping in 1998 when the EMU countries stop selling to meet the Maastricht requirements. 1998 is also when India liberalizes their gold purchasing laws. good luck

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:22
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
Could this be one of the they I hear so much about.

WHO IS MAURICE STRONG?

Maurice Strong is a man to watch! The billionaire Canadian businessman is an employee of the United Nations; an employee of the Rockefeller and Rothschild's trusts and projects; a director of the Aspen Institute for Humanistic Studies; the organizer of the first World Conference on the Environment in 1992; the founder and first head of the U.N. Environment Program; the secretary general ( and chief organizer ) of the UNCED Earth Summit in Rio in June 1992, and a leading socialist, environmentalist, New World Order manipulator, occultist, and New Ager. In the mid- 1980s, Strong joined the World Commission on the Environment where he helped produce the 1987 Brundtland Report widely believed to be the incendiary which ignited the present Green movement.

Strong, who spearheaded the Earth Summit, has complained that the United States is clearly the greatest risk to the world's ecological health, and wrote in an UNCED report in August 1991 that:

It is clear that current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle-class . . . involving high meat intake, consumption of large amounts of frozen and convenience foods, ownership of motor vehicles, small electric appliances, home and work place air-conditioning, and suburban housing are not sustainable. . . . A shift is necessary toward life-styles less geared to environmental damaging consumption patterns.


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:21
GOLDFINGER LINEMAN>(LINEMAN) ID#433171:
Your not alone. I am on a outright buy for MS-62 gold $20 liberty gold coins free from confiscation and gold stocks. Gonna hold lots of treasury bills too. I see gray skys ahead.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:21
cherokee @5-OLD-nickels----->(@5-OLD-nickels-----) ID#344308:
hey there line-man, where's you climbing spurs?

so, gold juniors for 25 cents on the dollar...

just which might these be? what are your favorites
and their current price? might be worth six-bits.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:20
JIN TIMES UP?>(TIMES UP?) ID#206358:
DONALD,
TIMES UP FOR CHAVALIT?IF NOT ...ANOTHER UPRISING?
TRY THIS: http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/2/nseas01.html
The asian markets all in hot water......BOILING....!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:15
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Kumagai: 200.5bn deficit warning

TUESDAY OCTOBER 21 1997

By Bethan Hutton in Tokyo

Kumagai Gumi, one of Japan's leading construction companies, said yesterday
it would make a loss of 200.5bn ( $1.67bn ) for the financial year to March
1998.

Previous forecasts were for post-tax profits of 1bn.

The reversal is mainly due to an extraordinary loss of 239bn from writing off
overseas developments and domestic bad loans. The company is liquidating
16 overseas projects, mainly in the US.

The write-offs are key to a medium-term management reform programme
announced yesterday.

Kumagai said it also planned to reduce its interest burden by cutting debt from
610.8bn to 595bn by March 2002, and reducing loan payment guarantees
from 430.6bn to 170bn.

In addition, Taichiro Kumagai, president, will retire at the beginning of
November, to be replaced by Yoshio Matsumoto, managing director.

Kumagai said it expected pre-tax profits of 30bn for the 1997-98 financial
year, on sales of 1,080bn. It planned to skip the 3 dividend for the year,
but expected to return to profit and resume the dividend in the next financial
year.

Steven Weller, construction industry analyst at Jardine Fleming Securities in
Tokyo, said Kumagai's financial difficulties were well known, but the decision
to make such a large write-off this year was unexpected.

They have accelerated what they said they were going to do over a much
longer period, and we have to give them credit for that, Mr Weller said, but
added that it was not clear how much bad debt would be left after the
write-off.

Kumagai's main banks, Sumitomo Bank and Long Term Credit Bank,
yesterday pledged continued support.

Kumagai's profit warning follows a series of bankruptcies among smaller
Japanese construction companies this year. All construction companies are
facing difficulties dating back to the bubble period of the late 1980s.








Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:14
Allen USA>(USA) ID#255190:

Wichita - You can have both at the same time. Like the '70s. They called it stagflation: a stagnant economy with inflation of commodities. Look at Russia after U.S.S.R. collapse. They had sky rocketing unemployment ( deflation in employment ) AND skyrocketing prices ( inflation ) .

Is this possible today in the US? Yes. If you think of the equities market as inflated relative to its underlying value then a bear or crash would cause a relative deflation. At the same time whatever money escapes this market plus money market ( 1 Tln US$ ) and bonds could conceivably be chasing after tangibles like PMs. This would cause an inflation in their price at the same time as a defaltion in equities ( and bonds via rising interest rates.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:12
Speed @reality>(@reality) ID#286199:
Roar: There is honor in all honest work. Every week the Houston Chronicle posts over 20,000 help wanted ads in the Sunday paper. Most of these jobs require skills, but many are entry level. Those who can work and don't are lazy and deserve nothing but scorn. Those who are unable to work have over 300 billion dollars worth of aid programs currently available to them each and every year! Unemployment, Food Stamps, housing vouchers, WIC cards, Earned Income rebates, SS disability, the list is endless. In addition to the largess available from the federal and state governments, there are numerous charities dedicated to wiping out poverty. We don't need more programs, we need less invective from Vermont liberals pretending to be from LA.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:11
The Wichita Lineman @speed>(@speed) ID#374200:
Good points, espicall about the market cap of Dell vrs Fort Knox. My question is always the same. If it all seems so irrational, then how long can the other side keep up this game ? How long can gold sit in the toliet while the supposed paper bubble smiles at us. Is it really a brave new world ? Aldous Huxley would never have anticipated that a companies started up by college dropouts could rival the wealth of entire nations in a matter of a few years. Is the market chasing dreams of returns that are fueled by easy money. If so, why have'nt prices errupted with the fury of Mt. St. Hellens ? Damm it I am buying junior golds for 25 cents on the dollar, can't anybody else see this oppourtunity ?, How can you buy high techs, banks and the other stuff that trade at multiples that would make Buffet errupt in laughter ? I am alone, all alone, but the Wichita Lineman is still on the line.................

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:10
GOLDFINGER DON'T GET FOOLED AGAIN>(DON'T GET FOOLED AGAIN) ID#433171:
The greedy capitolists will hang themselfs with their own rope. With a 500 year cycle due I want to be in treasury bonds and gold. All my stocks will be liquidated when the market attempts to make a new high in a few days. When this rally fails and you know it will, we are in serious trouble. Good luck to all.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:09
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Worth a read daily
http://www.usagold.com/Daily Quotes
Comments on silver deliveries and friction in middle east.

Thanks Donald and Tolerant will check them out.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:03
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
China: May see rates fall

TUESDAY OCTOBER 21 1997

By James Harding in Shanghai

China's economy continued to grow rapidly in the first nine months of 1997,
but an unexpected slowdown in the rate of growth in the third quarter raised
expectations of a possible interest rate cut before the end of the year.

The State Statistical Bureau reported yesterday that China's gross domestic
product rose 9 per cent in the first three quarters of the year compared with
the same period in 1996. In the third quarter, GDP was up an estimated 8 per
cent compared with a year earlier.

Qiu Xiaohua, a spokesman for the SSB, said, in explaining the lower than
expected third-quarter GDP figures, that the contribution by industry to the
economy showed a certain decline. The consumption and export levels were
stable, he said.

The official forecast for China's economic growth for 1997 was recently
lowered to 9.5 per cent from 10 per cent, compared with a rise in GDP of 9.7
per cent last year.

Beijing also announced yesterday an increase in the official level of
unemployment, swollen by the large numbers laid off from China's troubled
state-owned enterprises.

The government figure for the urban unemployment rate in September was
nearly 4.0 per cent, compared with 2.98 per cent at the same time last year.
Of the 8m people jobless last month, 6m were former employees of state
companies, the SSB reported.

China's published unemployment figures are widely regarded as extremely
conservative and even government officials privately acknowledge that the
jobless levels in many of the larger provincial cities are nearer 15-20 per cent.

Last month, President Jiang Zemin promised to accelerate the reform of
loss-making state enterprises, even though he acknowledged that this might
have an adverse effect on employment in the short term.

Analysts in Shanghai said yesterday's figures gave the government greater
scope to loosen credit, a move increasingly seen as a necessary step to lift the
slowing economic growth rate. Hoong Yik Luen, head of China research for
ING Barings, said that as China aims to keep growth above 9 per cent, the
authorities will probably cut interest rates sooner rather than later.

Expectations of a reduction in interest rates and speculation that Beijing might
soon cut the required reserve ratio - the deposits Chinese banks must leave
with the central banks as a proportion of their total deposits - were bolstered
by another fall in inflation.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 21:00
Speed @home>(@home) ID#286199:
Wichita: Credit expansion has caused inflation in the U.S. Much of the excess money has been soaked up by the stock and bond markets. The primary evidence of inflation is in U.S. stocks. Dell is now valued at about 2/3 the value of all of the gold in Ft. Knox. Do you think they are worth that? Other examples of inflation can be found in Japan, where the real estate appraisals are rediculous. Tokyo is appraised at about the same value as the entire 48 contiguous states in the U.S. M2 and M3 money supply indicators are increasing much faster than the GDP. Wages are going up in the oil patch and technology areas. Retail will catch up this Christmas as loans are taken out on expected tax rebates. IMHO of course. Only a massive contraction of credit can cause deflation at this time. Buffett may know something. ; )

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:59
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Malaysia: Stocks suffer budget fall-out

TUESDAY OCTOBER 21 1997

By James Kynge in Kuala Lumpur

Share prices and the Malaysian ringgit declined sharply yesterday because of
widespread disappointment over the country's 1998 budget unveiled last
Friday, which appeared to shy away from tackling fundamental economic
problems.

The Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange's main index fell 26.83 points, or 3.38
per cent, to 767.97. The ringgit was trading at M$3.3275 to the US dollar
late yesterday, down from M$3.22 late on Friday.

The currency is 25 per cent below its level in early July, when the regional
crisis began in earnest. Currency dealers said that the budget had fallen far
short of its billing by Anwar Ibrahim, the deputy prime minister and finance
minister, who said that it would be tough.

Instead of the deep cuts in spending that the financial markets had sought,
there were merely minor adjustments aimed at tweaking growth down from a
projected 8 per cent this year to 7 per cent in 1998.

Malaysia wants to be the only ( south-east Asian ) country which is hoping to
ride out the trouble by not doing anything, said Rajeev Malik, senior
economist at Jardine Fleming in Singapore.

Economists said the budget made clear that Malaysia has embarked upon a
risky policy gamble. It is hoping to engineer successive months of trade
surpluses - by cutting imports and boosting exports - in the hope that these
can restore confidence in the ringgit and therefore bolster the stock market.
Higher stock prices would in turn relieve the strain on the country's banking
system.

To achieve this, Mr Anwar unveiled tax incentives for exporters, in particular
those which sell goods which have had at least 30 per cent of their value
added in Malaysia. Import duties of 20 per cent on equipment such bulldozers
were proposed, and tariffs on luxury cars and some consumer goods were
also raised. Mr Anwar made only cosmetic gestures toward dealing with what
many economists regard as grave financial frailties.

He shortened the period by which banks must report non-performing loans to
three months from six and said that loan growth must modify from a current 29
per cent to 20 per cent at the end of 1998 - a level which many observers still
regard as too high. The danger, however, is that if loan growth continues at
high levels but the hoped-for trade balance improvements do not materialise,
confidence could crumble.

The financial fall-out would then be more severe than if remedial steps were
taken now to rein in lending, economists said. Mr Anwar signalled that interest
rates are to remain at around their relatively low current levels.

Malaysia is in denial. If the gamble does not work, they will have a higher
price to pay than if they faced the problems now, said one economist.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:57
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
http://cnn.com/WEATHER/9710/15/el.nino.panama.canal/index.html

COMEX copper ends higher on Chuquicamata fire
COMEX copper ends higher on Chuquicamata fire
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/20/y0021_y00_13.html
``Another attempt by the longs to get the market juiced,'' one physical trader yawned, noting that the market is well supplied with copper with demand weak in Asia and production improving in South America.
Steel downplayed the possibility that the rally was a harbinger of a long-term reversal. ``I don't believe this is a bottom at all,'' he said. ``There's too much production coming on stream and too little demand to absorb it.''
``It's still too soon to draw any conclusions,'' he said. ``But it's worth noting that the price reached a high in June when ( combined LME and COMEX ) stock levels were at a low of 180,000 tonnes. One has to wonder: if the stocks are topping out, does this mean the price is bottoming out?''

Monday October 20 3:34 PM EDT
Greenspan postpones JEC testimony to Oct. 29
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/20/z0000_z00_15.html
WASHINGTON, Oct 20 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has postponed giving testimony before the Joint Economic Committee ( JEC ) of the U.S. Congress by one day to Oct. 29 because of scheduling difficulties, a committee spokeswoman said on Monday.

``There was a scheduling problem on their part,'' she said. ``We changed it at their request.''

A Fed spokeswoman confirmed Greenspan's testimony on Oct. 29 but gave no reason for the change in date.
FOCUS-UK shares slide, stg up on likely EMU delay
``I wouldn't be surprised if we see the market 300 points down on no volume today,'' said one dealer.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/20/fte_z0000_1.html

Funds see soaring mega-caps in line for more gains
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/20/z0000_z00_12.html

NY precious metals steady but mostly lower midday
``Silver still looks like it has more potential than gold as it looks like there's been some real disappearance of the metal recently,'' said one dealer with a bank financing fabricators in the trade.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/20/y0023_z00_23.html

Golds restrain Toronto
The autumn correction may not be over yet, but analysts said last weekend's anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash had little effect on investor confidence.
http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/wires/9710/20/toronto_wg/


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:54
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
S Korea and Taiwan: Crisis spreads

TUESDAY OCTOBER 21 1997

By John Burton in Seoul and Laura Tyson in Taipei

The currency crisis that has battered south-east Asia yesterday reached South
Korea and Taiwan with the won and Taiwan dollar falling to record lows.

The South Korean won closed at 924 to the dollar, almost 10 won below its
opening level, as investors dumped the currency on fears about the stability of
financial markets buffeted by a string of bankruptcies.

The Taiwan dollar fell 2.3 per cent against the US dollar to close at a 10-year
low of T$30.34. Since the central bank abandoned its costly defence of the
currency in an abrupt policy U-turn on Friday, the currency has lost almost 7
per cent.

The Taiwanese share index plunged by 3.96 per cent to 7,316.78. The index,
deep in a correction, has fallen some 28 per cent since rocketing to a
seven-year peak of 10,116.74 in August.

The Seoul stock market index hit a five-year low yesterday, falling by 3.3 per
cent to 565.64 points in response to news that New Core, the nation's 25th
largest conglomerate, was in financial trouble. The Seoul bourse has dropped
by 31 per cent from its mid-June peak as a wave of bankruptcies has hit the
highly-leveraged corporate sector because of an economic slowdown and a
credit squeeze.

New Core received Won54.5bn ( $60m ) in emergency bank loans after the
market closed to stave off a threatened bankruptcy. This followed the
bankruptcy or near-collapse of leading companies in the computer parts,
underwear and furniture sectors last week.

Foreign interest in the market has evaporated because of the corporate
collapses and feared foreign exchange losses, said Brian Hunsaker, an analyst
at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson in Seoul.

To address foreign investor confidence, the finance ministry last week
announced it was increasing the foreign limit in listed companies by three
percentage points to 26 per cent, but this had little impact on the market.
Investors were also unimpressed with government measures announced at the
weekend to help the market, including giving tax breaks to long-term investors
and delaying until next year the overseas and domestic listing of state-run
Korea Telecom.

Economic analysts say the impact of the crisis on Taiwan is unlikely to be as
severe as on the hardest-hit Asian neighbours, such as Thailand and Malaysia.
This is because Taiwan's large current account surplus and its economy is
fundamentally more healthy.

Until last Friday, Taiwan's central bank had maintained that the currency was
undervalued and had allowed short-term interest rates to soar while defending
the exchange rate at T$28.5 to the US dollar. But the cost of defending the
currency has become too high a price to pay for the central bank.

Ultimately the government was unwilling to undermine this year's economic
recovery in order to maintain the credibility of the central bank. The Taiwan
dollar is expected to continue to slide until it finds its own level, which analysts
suggested might be at around T$31 to the US dollar.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:54
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD @WITCHITA #6>(@WITCHITA #6) ID#431263:
HERR WITCH!--Since HERR SPEED has rather eloquently and SPEEDILY!! answered questions 1-5, I'll take a stab at #6. Human nature knows not whether ye be rich, nor poor, stupid or smart. A stupid man may through no skill of his own do something smart, and a smart man through no fault of his own may find himself in a mess and do something stupid! One could numerous examples on both sides of the equation!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:51
cherokee @watching-water-boil-------------->(@watching-water-boil--------------) ID#344308:
11 days and counting....

all the indicators lgb posted
are just the tip of the ice-berg
when it comes to lit fuses.....psssssssss....bang!

you wake-up dead, amongst the sleep-walkers of lemming-ville,
where commonality is common. the royal scam ( steely dan ) quite literally
is well-nigh-upon us-----

the cold war was denoted as the period where the world tettered
upon the brink of destruction from the super-powers. we suppossedly
out-spent the russians and broke their machine with our machine.. ( economy )

now that we have 'won the war,' we are at greater risk from
the fractionated remnants of their empire than the group as
a whole.

what vision....to make the world safer, but instead increase
the volatility and potential for chaos.....politicos...visionaries all...


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:51
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
South-east Asia: Markets hit by economic and
political woes

TUESDAY OCTOBER 21 1997

By Our International Staff

Political uncertainties, corporate bankruptcies and worries over the trend in
Wall Street battered several Asian currency and stock markets yesterday.

In Thailand, the baht and share prices fell sharply as the government failed to
find a replacement for Thanong Bidaya as finance minister and thousands took
to the streets to call on prime minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh to resign.

The Thai stock market fell 3.1 per cent, while the baht fell to Bt37.67 to the
US dollar, compared with Bt36.80 on Friday.

In Hong Kong, fears of a rise in interest rates prompted a slide in share prices.
The blue-chip Hang Seng index lost 4.6 per cent to sink below 13,000 points,
its lowest close for almost six months and almost 4 per cent below its level at
the beginning of the year.

Investment analysts said the downturn in Hong Kong was triggered by falls on
Wall Street at the end of last week. Bonds also fell and interest rates rose
amid fears that south-east Asia's currency upheaval could affect the Hong
Kong dollar.

In Malaysia, disappointment with last week's budget forced share prices and
the ringgit down as analysts concluded that the government had failed
adequately to address structural economic problems. The Kuala Lumpur
stock exchange's main index fell 3.38 per cent. The ringgit was trading at
M$3.3275 to the US dollar late yesterday, down from M$3.22 on Friday.
Malaysia wants to be the only [south-east Asian] country which is hoping to
ride out the trouble by not doing anything, said Rajeev Malik, senior
economist at Jardine Fleming in Singapore. The policymakers are going to be
disappointed, as there is nothing so different about Malaysia that the
time-tested laws of economics don't apply.

In South Korea, the won closed at 924 to the dollar, almost 10 won below its
opening level. Investors dumped the currency on fresh fears about the stability
of financial markets following a series of bankruptcies. The won had already
fallen 7.7 per cent against the dollar this year.

The Seoul stock market hit a five-year low, falling by 3.3 per cent to 565.64
points in response to news that the retailing group New Core, the nation's
25th largest conglomerate, was in financial trouble.

Meanwhile, the Taiwan dollar, having appeared at the end of last week to
catch the regional contagion, fell a further 2.3 per cent against the US dollar to
close at a 10-year low of T$30.34. Since the central bank abandoned its
costly defence of the currency in an abrupt policy U-turn on Friday, the
currency has lost almost 7 per cent.

Taiwanese share prices plunged 3.96 per cent. The index has fallen some 28
per cent since a seven-year peak in August.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:48
Roar @LA>(@LA) ID#35767:
Speed you speak of employment but what of those who neither possess the necessary skills nor have the resources to attain employment? Let em make Big Macs is your call. We need a program of National Health Care and free education and at least a guaranteed govt level of housing and food for the women, minorities, children, disabled and others that may have been economically unfortunate. Democracy is lost without these guarantees.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:47
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
NICK: TRY THIS ON FOR SIZE - Hope it helps

http://lcweb.loc.gov/cgi-bin/browse.pl?action=brws&tnaddress=locis.loc.gov&keystroke_file=tnlocis.txt&db=SERL&command=.brb&startitem=1&slctoptn=SUBJ/&userinput=Gold--Prices--United+States--Periodicals

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:46
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Good Morning Nick: The Financial Times offers a CD with historic prices but I don't know if daily gold is on it. You have to register to get access.
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:46
The Wichita Lineman Inflation / Deflation / Reflation / Scintilation>(Inflation / Deflation / Reflation / Scintilation) ID#374200:
Can we have some feedback, who here sees the glass as half empty or half full. Is it Inflation or deflation, please provide some foundation for your arguement. Thank You Speed, I should seek employment, but I am too busy working and I already see my kids once a month, any more often and I would start drinking again.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:38
Speed @home>(@home) ID#286199:
Wichita:

1 ) Buffet bought bonds in case of deflationary collapse. He was up 20% the first week after the purchase. ( source: CNBC )

2 ) This is a diverse and interesting discussion group with solid arguments for both inflation and deflation.

3 ) Deflation is not bad for gold if gold falls in price less than other goods and services. The same logic applies to inflation, if gold goes up in dollars faster than other goods and services. Disinflation in Asia will reinforce a prejudice toward the yellow metal.

4 ) Dollars are earned, not found. Perhaps you should seek EMPLOYMENT!

5 ) Most gold stocks are within 10% of 52-week lows. That's cheap!
6 ) There are so many flaws in your sixth, that it must be slammed as nonsensical.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:31
Donald @IndonesiaCB-CutsInterestRates>(@IndonesiaCB-CutsInterestRates) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/10/20/financial_news/indonesia_1.html

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:27
The Wichita Lineman Can you answer these questions ?>(Can you answer these questions ?) ID#374200:
Here are some zingers:
1 ) Why did warren buffet buy all those zero cupons with the nasty tax implications they have ?

2 ) How come half of the posters think there is inflation, while the other half see deflation ?

3 ) Isn't deflation a 'bad thing' for gold prices ?, what benefit will disinflation in Asia on gold Golden Cheeseman ?

4 ) If there are tons of US dollars floating around, why can't I find any ?

5 ) How much cheeper are my gold stocks going to get

6 ) If the poor had brains they would become rich people, and thus would crave stability, menaing no good news for gold. Does that mean only dumb poor people can cause turmoil ?

I welcome any answers or slams. Remember, I am a Lineman for the county...

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:26
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Donald thanks for the offer of the Dow/Gold charts,I already have a copy printed out.
What I would like to track down is the daily gold price data pre 1988.
Also I am seeking advance decline data for XAU ( if it exists ) and maybe same for Johannesburg or London gold stocks.


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:24
David goldfevr@pacbel.net>(goldfevr@pacbel.net) ID#269218:
To LGB: 'sarcasm is cheap' .... from A Separate Peace, by J Knowles, in his book ....... ( - reported to be the favorite book, of the founder of Microsoft. )

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:15
Louie Ruyk---- @Get a Grip>(@Get a Grip) ID#26467:
GSC and Peutz your predictions are now being monitored by Public Broadcasting for a contest with my consistently bullish and wealth creating opinions. Results will be published in the New Year's Weekend Edition of Barron's. No matter what happens I am sending you both $10 dollar gift certificates to the Olive Garden so you will have some good food during the Holiday Season.


Cheers, Yours always,

Louie the R

cc: Sisters of Mercy

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:15
The Wichita Lineman @Golden Cheesehead>(@Golden Cheesehead) ID#374200:
Monseuir Camembert; take a pill, the sun will come up tommorow and just because some unfortunate soul eats the flesh of a dead person does not mean the collapse of all paper.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:11
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: Your quote I personally hope that I and many others here at Kitco will be in a position after the conflagration to help our friends and neighbors!

In the coming days I truly hope that millions of people have your sense of hope.

My heart goes out to the people in your post this evening.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 20:01
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD @CANNIBALISM IN N. KOREA AND END OF ASIAN MIRACL>(@CANNIBALISM IN N. KOREA AND END OF ASIAN MIRACL) ID#431263:
Once again the news out of Asia is grim and getting grimmer! Just heard a report on McNeill-Lehrer about reports of CANNIBALISM on the border of N. Korea and China! Some reports indicate as many as a million people may already have died from starvation! ( Rep. Tony Hall-D ) What is El Nino gonna' do to N. Korea? Another report deals with the Asian currency crisis and debt deflation! Drought worsening in Indonesia! THIS STORY IS GETTING TO BE BIG NEWS AND GETTING BIGGER EVERY DAY! ASIA will be EXPORTING CHEAPER AND CHEAPER GOODS TO THE US JUST TO SURVIVE! WILL REDUCE US IMPORTS TO SATISFY IMF! ASIAN DEFLATION IS SOON TO HIT THE US MAINLAND! Thailand is now praying for their country on nationwide TV! HONG KONG TOURIST TRADE IS DOWN 50%! HANG SENG now BELOW 13,000!! El NINO will compound problems and cause them to import more food!! Movement to BUY LOCAL AND REFUSE TO BUY FOREIGN GOODS! ANGER TOWARD THE WEST IS SURGING! CORRUPTION IN POLITICS HAS LED TO CAPITAL FLIGHT! MAY TAKE ONE TO FIVE YEARS TO CORRECT THE PROBLEMS! WATCH ASIAN MARKETS TONIGHT! IMHO THIS IS THE EXOGENOUS EVENT WE'VE ALL KNOWN WAS COMING! AND US MARKETS AND CORPORATIONS WILL NOT ESCAPE!! DEFLATION IS HERE! No wonder WARREN BUFFET HAS BOUGHT 2 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF ZERO-COUPON BONDS!! CURRENCY CHAOS AND IMPLODING PAPER BUBBLES IN ASIA IS CAUSING A FLIGHT TO SAFETY!
NOW IT'S THE US DOLLAR, but once it becomes clear that the US STOCK MARKET BUBBLE IS ALSO IN TROUBLE it will expand to include G-O-L-D!! And if the Japanese really do sell US T-BILLS AND BONDS to buy gold the GOLD BULL WILL SPRING TO LIFE IN A HURRY! And even ZEROS WILL GET ZAPPED!! WATCH OUT WARREN!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 19:53
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home) ID#228128:
I picked the following out of Gabriel's post ( Does it mean that some CBs are curtailing their leasing activities? ) . Rumors of gold sales by the Venezuelan Central Bank hit gold prices last Friday. In a Dow-Jones News report,officials in Caracas denied the rumors, saying the central bank is not, has not, nor will sell gold. The rumors were apparently based on the clearing out of lease contracts, which is often interpreted as a preparatory move before sales.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 19:52
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
SILVER: I was waiting for your post. Now, lets go to the tape shall we:

What I said yesterday:
17:42 - The price of gold will be moving up in the next few days and weeks. I expect to see it at around $400.00 US by the middle of February, if it takes that long.

I have four days on the first sentence. Roughly four months on the second sentence.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 19:39
Gabriel Sennet Are we coming to a consensus>(Are we coming to a consensus) ID#433190:
DA - here is some gathered info for your perusal. Seems right up your alley.

GENERAL MARKET OVERVIEW

The CPI came out lower than expected ( at 0.2% Sept ) but it wasnt enough to rescue the market from news of lowered blue chip earnings and a
sell-off in technology stocks. As the 10th anniversary of the 1987 October Crash approaches ( Sunday ) , traders are eyeing potentially harmful
factors as trade friction with Japan that might cause harm to the markets.

In an online Foreign Exchange Report, Customs House reported of the Bank of Japan's intention to maintain its current easy monetary policy to
make the economic recovery firmer. There is talk that the Bank of Japan will need to further lower its official discount rate if the next few
sets of indicators remain weak. The record low of 0.5 percent may have to be taken all the way to zero.

METALS MARKET OVERVIEW

As reported by Tass and Reuters, Norilsk Nickel denied earlier this week that a combine shutdown at its Nadezhdinsky plant had occurred, with
one official calling the rumors nonsense. Yet continued news reports from Tass and Reuters tell that one of Norilsk's two furnaces would
have to stop output for five to six months, beginning at the end of November or the start of December. The report said that this will cut the
flagship Nadezhdinsky plant's output by half. Palladium is up over $220.

Despite Norilsk problems, platinum has moved back this week, perhaps due to lowered expectations in Japan. Amplats announced the signing of a
lease with the Royal Bafokeng Nation near Rustenberg for a R1.2 billion platinum-mining project. The project, once known as Boschkoppies, is
now renamed as the Baofokeng - Rasimone Platinum Mine. Mining is expected to begin there by the year 2000.

Rumors of gold sales by the Venezuelan Central Bank hit gold prices last Friday. In a Dow-Jones News report, officials in Caracas denied the
rumors, saying the central bank is not, has not, nor will sell gold. The rumors were apparently based on the clearing out of lease contracts,
which is often interpreted as a preparatory move before sales.

Canada's Barrick Gold will see two of its large South African competitors merge. According to The Wall Street Journal, Gencor and Goldfields of
South Africa will merge their gold mines in a $3.6 billion stock deal. The new company will be called Goldco, and will be the largest gold
producer in the world. The deal is said to combine some of South Africa's largest gold reserves with some of the country's lowest-cost
producers, with annual estimated production of four million ounces. Comparing the new company to Barrick, Brian Gilbertson, who will be
chairman of Goldco, says The world's most valuable [gold] company is Barrick. We're bigger in production, we're bigger in reserves, but we're
higher in costs. ... I think we can get costs down, he said.

Mr. Hitoshi Kosai of Tanaka Kikinzoku, one of Japan's largest jewelry fabricators, was quoted by Dow Jones Newswires as saying that Japanese
jewelry demand for platinum is likely to be 5% to 10% lower this year. Consumer spending in Japan has been particularly hard hit by an increase
in retail taxes this spring. We hope the decline will be only 5% or less because we expect a pick-up in Christmas and New Year sales, said Mr.
Kosai. Around 38% of world's platinum is used to make jewelry each year and Japan is the biggest market, accounting for 80% of total jewelry
demand for the metal. Japanese platinum jewelry fabrication appears to have peaked at 46 tons a year in 1995 and 1996 after rising from 42
tons in 1992, Mr. Kosai said.

According to the report, gold jewelry demand has suffered the most from the Japanese economic doldrums, as consumer preference has leaned
more towards platinum for wedding rings and necklaces. Jewelry demand for gold in Japan has been overtaken by industrial demand, with 113
tons of gold used last year, mostly for semi-conductors and plating in electronic applications, said Mr. Kosai.

Mr. Kosai said the company was preparing the ground for the negotiation of next year's supply contracts for platinum and palladium with
Russia's platinum group export agency Almazjuvelirexport.

Negotiations may start early next month - usually November is the negotiation month for contracts in the following year, he said. However, Mr.
Kosai said the outlook for supply from Russia remains uncertain and as a result palladium and platinum prices are likely to rise later this year.
Uncertainty will increase as negotiations start and people in the industry start talking to each other ( about it ) , he said.

Mr. Kosai's projections should be taken in a broader context of overall growth in world platinum demand, which analysts expect to continue at an
average rate of 5% a year. Also to be considered is the significant growth in Chinese and U.S. demand for platinum jewelry. These factors,
combined with an eventual turnaround in the Japanese economy, give foundation for a long-term positive outlook for platinum's fundamentals.

According to an Associated Press report, the Draper Prize this year went to Vladimir Haensel, the discoverer of how to use platinum to squeeze
more energy and products out of oil. Haensel's process, called platforming, uses platinum as a catalyst to get more, and cleaner, fuel from a
similar amount of oil than was consumed using earlier refining methods. A byproduct of platforming was aromatic hydrocarbons, the raw
material used to make plastics.

The Draper Prize is named for inventor Charles Stark Draper. The National Academy of Engineering determines the winner of the biannual prize,
which carries an endowment of $450,000. Said William Wulf, president of the academy in the report, The platforming process has touched all
of our lives in countless ways Because of platforming, today's fuel for cars, trucks and practically all other forms of ground transportation is
vastly more efficient, environmentally friendly, and easier and cheaper to produce than anyone thought possible just a few decades ago. Wulf
also told AP that the process also led to the manufacture of the many types of plastics now widely used in thousands of products.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 19:36
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com) ID#227238:
M. Sun: I appreciated your personal insight very much. When the mighty dollar hits the skids, Americans will be living in very much the same manner. ...... All except for LBG. He'll continue to buy the dips.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 19:36
vronsky THE COVERT GOLD COST OF OIL by Sheik Abu Bekr al-Rashid>(THE COVERT GOLD COST OF OIL by Sheik Abu Bekr al-Rashid) ID#426220:
This study gives material support to ANOTHERs hypothesis that there is a definite relationship between stable oil prices and gold's dwindling value in past years - the LBMA mystery continues, albeit another onion-layer of subterfuge peeled back:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/gold_cost_oil.html

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 19:32
Cueball @showmethe>(@showmethe) ID#342125:
Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 18:36
Cueball ( @channel twosucks!! ) ID#342125:


just last week there was an article on IPMCF that indicated the company had falsified it's research and it's finds.

LGB

Could you direct me to that article.

LGB

Could you direct me to the article?

Here's a hint. Show me a statement in the press by someone who states what LGB has posted. I own none of this, nor ever, however, show me!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 19:29
Yet Another Lurker Are we coming to a consensus>(Are we coming to a consensus) ID#238163:
Lurker, Reg Contributor: I agree whole-heartedly about your assessment of LGB ( Should be locked away-anybody in favor of reinstatement of electric shock therapy to the brain? LGB could be poster child! )

LGB - Stick to fetching news commentary and stay away from blurting out your inexcusable jibberish you offer as opinion.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 19:22
Agree with regualr contributor about LGB nonsense>(about LGB nonsense) ID#256367:
In regards to LGB recent posting: LGB ( @ R.J., Maple Leafs, Full Moon ) ID#310407:

Been gone to Tahoe and just read back 3 days. Looks like the Full Moon folks were wrong. There's more mischief here than ever well PAST the full moon, BLAH BLAH BLAH...

And the most insightful response from our distinguished Lurker:

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 01:16

LURKER ( LGB-DENSE AS A BLACK WALNUT ) ID#319214:

LGB: You still don't get it

We try to IGNORE YOU, but obviously it hasn't worked, yet!

You see, we feel it is a crying SHAME that you ever came back from Tahoe!!!!!!!!!!!!

Notice the articulate description, LGB - Dense as a BLACK WALNUT.

Lurker - you hit the BLACK WALNUT right on his head ( and he didn't feel a thing ) . I said he's a perfect example of Dense, i.e., dull witted, etc...

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 19:22
Silver @home>(@home) ID#289349:
Tolerant1: thought the market was going to crash today?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 19:22
john wetterau LGB / IPMCF>(LGB / IPMCF) ID#249243:
LGB, no argument about perception often displacing reality. While we're at it I might also say that I agree with tolerant1's appraisal of IPM. It is a high risk play, but I think that the reward/risk ratio is better than most such. In my estimation, at the current price of 6 1/16, there is a 50/50 shot at a ten bagger and about a 1/4 chance of a 75% wipeout.
John

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 19:21
Allen USA>(USA) ID#255190:
M.Sun - Thank you for bringing some perspective to the problem of many people in the world today. We are so very isolated from the inflation problems that you outlined and its effect on how people conduct their lives. At least for those of in the US I can generalize and say we haven't got a clue as to what instability is like. We do not understand because that has not been our experience. We've had a few bumps on the road of our prosperity: 1930's, 1973 - 1982. We are complacent and ignorant. At times these problems are on our doorstep as in the case of Mexico. At other times, such as today, they are across the world. We've got boat loads of confidence that such things could never happen here. And if they did we'd have aan answer in short order. Well, maybe.


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 19:17
LGB El Nino, second try>(El Nino, second try) ID#269409:
Let's try those site links again

El Nino Info. and site links on CNN site. http://cnn.com/WEATHER/9710/15/el.nino.panama.canal/index.html , and,
http://cnn.com/EARTH/9710/12/el.nino.sea.lion/ , and,
http://cnn.com/SPECIALS/el.nino/losers.winners/ , and,
http://iri.ucsd.edu/hot_nino/ , and,
http://topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov/ninowatch/ ,and,
http://www.enn.com/specialreports/ , and,
http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/enso/ , and,
http://meteora.ucsd.edu/%7Epierce/elnino/elnino.html , and,


PS, my comment to Regular Poster was to grow some Heuvos and post under his own handle... though he has stated recently that he can't take the heat of scrutiny.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 19:15
Ted @ B.S. capital of North America>(@ B.S. capital of North America) ID#364147:
EB:Le package not here....yet!...and it did get wacked or am I hallucinating? Hi Tort!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 19:13
LGB @El Nino, and Regular Contributor>(@El Nino, and Regular Contributor) ID#269409:
El Nino Info. and site links on CNN site. http://cnn.com/WEATHER/9710/15/el.nino.panama.canal/index.html , and,
http://cnn.com/EARTH/9710/12/el.nino.sea.lion/ , and,
http://cnn.com/SPECIALS/el.nino/losers.winners/ , and,
http://iri.ucsd.edu/hot_nino/ , and,
http://topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov/ninowatch/ ,and,
http://www.enn.com/specialreports/ , and,
http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/enso/ , and,
http://meteora.ucsd.edu/%7Epierce/elnino/elnino.html

Now then Regular Contributor AKA someone who never posts anything of interest or value. You're wrong in your suppositions as always. And as I mentioned to a previous poster, your own verbiage condemns you as being far more guilty of the accusations you keep lofting my way, than my own posts could ever be.

You ARE an amusing fellow though. Always there behind me to post nothing but LGB attacks of interest to no one. I do understand it must be frustrating to be a Regular Poster without the Heuvos to post comments to me under your own handle though. Grow some and join the discussion if you have anything of interest to say. ( Which is about as likely as Puetze's predicted 2500 point crash before 10/31 ) .

Opposed to censorship, even for those devoid of neurons ... LGB

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 19:09
WW @NE>(@NE) ID#18970:
50 % of the American People believe Clinton has lied and committed
illegal acts with respect to campaign finance. However, 59% give Clinton a positive rating as President. Enough Said. Ah what a bull in financials and positive economic spin can do!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 19:08
cxz xz>(xz) ID#343145:
xc

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 19:08
D.A. DAronstein@worldnet.att.net>(DAronstein@worldnet.att.net) ID#7568:
All:

The next few days in the silver market should be very interesting. Just as the 200 moving average was the battleground on which things hinged on the upside, so too does it have importance on the downside. The action over the last few days has been an effort to hit the mechanical stops of one of the large technical trend followers, so that a lot of cheap silver can be shaken out. If this occurs, we will see a good sized spike down which should most definitely be bought. My take on whats going on is that we will not see the breakdown, and that the uptrend will resume shortly. When it does so, it is likely to be with renewed vigor.

With comex warehouse stocks falling to under 135 MM oz we are rapidly approaching the point of zero effective stocks. From various conversations I have had, the best guess is that between 70 and 100 MM oz of silver are not going to leave to the warehouses without much, much higher prices. This is metal that has been owned by the same owners for a long time and is held as part of a core 'insurance' position.

Time to buy another load of out of the money calls. They are still trading at 'rediculously' low implied vols. Not for long.


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 18:53
GOLDFINGER CLINTON EXPOSED>(CLINTON EXPOSED) ID#433171:
If is a big word, but what if he is exposed as a cheat and a liar. What will that make us look like to the rest of the world. The dollar would be history and so would the financial markets at these high levels. Corruption is what destroys society and it is right under our noses. The wild cards are many and I think gold is a great hedge in these uncertain times. Those who are not hedged will lose their nest egg in a hand basket.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 18:52
Tortfeasor Joke of the day>(Joke of the day) ID#36965:
It looks like the metals have sunk just below the surface and that a joke might be in order to hold up the fragile spirit of this crowd.

The receptionist at the lawyers office answers her phone, Johnson and
Lewis, attorneys at law. Let me speak with Mr. Johnson please, said
the caller, I'm sorry, Mr. Johnson passed away in his sleep last
night, replied the receptionist. A few minutes later, she receives
another call from what sounds like the same caller. May I speak with
Mr. Johnson please? I'm sorry, sir, but Mr. Johnson died in his sleep
last night. When the phone rings for the third time, the receptionist
hears the same voice. May I speak with Mr. Johnson please? Sir, I
don't know what you're up to, but I recognize your voice and I've
already told you twice that Mr. Johnson died in his sleep last night!
snapped the receptionist. I know, I'm sorry, I can't help myself,
said the caller, I just love hearing you say it over and over again.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 18:50
Regular Contributor cnwdlcjwd>(cnwdlcjwd) ID#412163:

IM a airhead, ego puffed idiot. Figur out my real name

That's easy - LGB, the VINDICTIVE A_HOLE!

Let it go, LGB. I realize the truth can hurt - but you're too obvious. Back to counseling and therapy for your problems.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 18:49
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
CUEBALL: go here:

http://www.ipmcf.com/press/7-0911pr.html

This is right on the IPMCF web site, but it pretty much explains the bruhaha.

I am not sure if the article you are looking for is still on the web.

If you need further, just post and ask and I will try and help you out.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 18:47
RLM Gold Low?>(Gold Low?) ID#403335:
Since Dec gold did not take out the low from last Friday, this is as good a place as any for gold to make its stand, if it's going to so. Maybe Glenn will prove to be right when he indicated that all the stops have been taken out in Au.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 18:45
Smurker @@@@@@@>(@@@@@@@) ID#289283:
Rumors of gold sales by the Venezuelan Central Bank hit gold prices last Friday. In a Dow-Jones News report, officials in Caracas denied the
rumors, saying the central bank is not, has not, nor will sell gold. The rumors were apparently based on the clearing out of lease contracts,
which is often interpreted as a preparatory move before sales.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 18:43
Rabriel Jennet ......In the Air......>(......In the Air......) ID#362232:
IM a airhead, ego puffed idiot. Figur out my real name

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 18:40
vronsky GENE INGER MARKET FORECAST>(GENE INGER MARKET FORECAST) ID#426220:
Internationally acclaimed & venerable Mr. Inger shares his market insights & wisdom with us. Lately he's been VERY HOT-VERY HOT! Per Inger's Worst case scenario is DOW could drop 30%...:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger1020.html


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 18:36
Cueball @channel twosucks!!>(@channel twosucks!!) ID#342125:


just last week there was an article on IPMCF that indicated the company had falsified it's research and it's finds.

LGB

Could you direct me to that article.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 18:16
LGB @John Wetterau, IPMCF>(@John Wetterau, IPMCF) ID#269409:
Interesting info. John which leads one to believe that it may be a good buy, however, not sure I can agree with your final statement that In the end the findamentals dictate the price. many would say that perceptions drive human behaviour ( and markets ) , more than reality does quite often. the vast plethora of Urban myths and Voodoo beliefs in Astrology and such would lend support I think to perception often replacing factual fundamentals in the thinking of many.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 18:16
M.Sun @h, he, li, Be, B, C, N, O, F, Ne....Au,...lr>(@h, he, li, Be, B, C, N, O, F, Ne....Au,...lr) ID#334194:
As a dude that is looking for the sh*t that you guys spend hours talking about I want to add a few comments.

I live in a third world country racked by 30-40% p.a. inflation. Paper gone beserk. It is a day to day existence here, people have to spend money to keep what they have. Inflation is what keeps people moving keeps the economy ticking, keeps people spending. Not a soul can store wealth except those in power who can maintain an army of feudal style supporters who are constantly gathering for them. Or they have access to wealth outside of the system. Any real deals or trades are done in hard currencies. Anything of worth is sold in dollars, not just local currency at the dollar exchange rate. The people here want a hard asset to store wealth. In this case the dollar is the mutually agreeded consensual medium of wealth storage. Truely in this place the currencies of the west are valued as gold. They are the only way to store wealth.

Now for all you gbs out there we need a massive loss in confidence in paper. Too much debt. Then gold or in fact any easy to exchange medium will become the ultimate store of wealth.

The best thing about gold is:

It is less common than diamonds or gems.
It is far less common than wood ( but not for long ) .
It has virtually no use so is not consummed.

And for whatever reason element 79 atomic weight 196.97 has always been the store since the first humans got together and decided to live within structured societies.

All things said I still long to have the ultimate credit card far better than a platium Amex. A card you would need to have a full blown nuclear faciltiy travelling with you to produce the card for each purchase.

Announcing the all new Lawrencium Amex with a half life of 0.000000028 seconds

And for our most select clinents the Tanatallium Amex so rapid that you can't even make a purchase comes with a guarenteed half life of 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000788 s.

P.S. Thanks Nick@Aussie Very fine charts. I see in gold and the dow two trumpets opposed as if to angles lips, one heralding the calm before the storm and the other fully wracked by the winds.

Go gold!!!!




Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 18:15
Joe cambridg@cybersurf.van.net>(cambridg@cybersurf.van.net) ID#251219:
Southern California welcomes the leading gold newswletter editors to the Anaheim Hilton and Towers ( Disney area ) on Sunday and Monday, Oct. 26 & 27. - for the Anaheim Gold Show and Mining Investment Conference. It's a Who's Who of the business.
Jim Dines, Doug Casey, Rick Rule, John Kaiser, Ken Gammage, Scott Fraser, Ben Johnson, Ian McAvity, Ted Carter, Brian Fagan, Dennis Wheeler, the Coffin Brothers ( Eric and Dave of Hard Rock Analysts ) Michael Chapman, Ken Coleman, Jay Taylor, Paul Sarnoff, up and comer Chris Bunka, James Turk, Peter Grandich and Kevin Smith. LA's Channel 22 news anchor, Richard Saxton will MC. Speakers start at 8:00 a.m. both days and run through to 5:00 p.m. The Conference features an exhibit hall with junior mining companies.
Attendance is free; Phone 1-888-227-7722 to register. Your badge can be picked up at the door.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 18:12
LGB @Gabriel>(@Gabriel) ID#269409:
Hey Gabe, I love it when someone with NOTHING to say except personal attacks, and NOTHING to say about the markets, posts here to slam me for my method and manner of posting in response to others comments. People like you make my case better than I could as to why people like you contribute NOTHING to the debates here.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 18:04
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
TO ALL: I do not see that gold got whacked today, and the market had participants in it today that do not seem to realize how dangerous this week is going to be.

The metals have become a news item. People are talking currency instability, SE Asia melting down, further.

There are several very real scary scenairos happening all at once.

One thing which I think is terribly risky is the fact that the world sees the US dollar as the worlds' currency. The single largest debtor nation in history, personal banckruptcy highs, and Mr. Greenspan is resolute in his not buying into the new paradigm.

Currency flight into the dollar will only serve to compound the inevitable drop in the dollar. At the very least. I can not see anyone feeling comfortable in these markets.





Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 18:01
Gabriel Sennet .......................>(.......................) ID#433190:
LGB:

On your Apocolypse senario, you forgot to list one of the most important causes:

*The erotion of civility, tolerance and respect shown towards the opinions and ideas of other human beings -in general, a mean-spiritedness directed at our fellow human beings.

You LGB are the prime example as evidenced by the manner in which you conduct yourself on this forum.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 18:00
john wetterau LGB / IPMCF>(LGB / IPMCF) ID#249243:
LGB, I own shares in IPMCF and said so in a post a day or so ago. Don't want to take up too much time defending the disinformation mess which
was discussed in endless posts on the SI thread. Several MM's known for undeclared shorting sold heavily at the exact time misleading ( I mean really misleading, National Enquirer type smear writing ) articles were released. At the same time, several posters kicked in on SI with scare / smear posts. I have nothing against shorting. The lying and the manipulation by MM's is what is annoying. The Zena Moukheiber article in Forbes was a classic. I wrote her three or four times with clear facts refuting her statements -- no reply. Nothing. Lincoln Steffy has been doing the same thing through Bloomberg. In the end, fundamentals dictate the price, so I am not worried. But a lot of people got shaken out by their mistruths.
John

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 17:48
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
XAU/Spot Ratio = .307

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 17:46
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Dow/Gold Ratio = 24.49

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 17:34
JTF @Work>(@Work) ID#57232:
All: Looks like the market is heading up for a while - few days at least. Another attempt to reach the August high? Not just on Microsoft and IBM earnings reports?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 17:30
LGB @Puetz, bought market today>(@Puetz, bought market today) ID#269409:
On the lighter side, based on Puetze's predictions for crashing market, based on Full moon 6 weeks from Eclispe and Halloween coming up, I bought the market today ( Fid./Magellan ) , moving 10% of my 401 K Money market fund into it for a short term move on the upward blip that will surely occur based on Petze's ultra reliable status as a contrary indicator.

Call it the Puetz factor. And yes Steve, I make ALL my market moves here, publicly, and IN ADVANCE!! You sure made me some good money the day of the Eclipse crash, let's see if we can go for a repeat! I'll give the market till weekend to go back into 8100 territory and sell.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 17:24
Crystal Ball ()>(()) ID#287367:
Bart: What ever happened to the button that linked to a listing of precious metal - related websites submitted by various and sundry Kitco enthusiasts? Would appreciate if you could let us know the URL for the list. Thanks ! !

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 17:16
tolerant @large>(@large) ID#31868:
JTF: Check your email, sorry for the day, I have been busy.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 17:14
@working...yeah right...no really...>(@working...yeah right...no really...) ID#2082:
Nobody said it yet today...

Gold Got Whacked...

This is good for 'long-term' gold traders ( better prices ) and 'short term' gold futures traders ( quick bucks ) , NO? Gold will shine someday...

AwAy...to look for opportunities...


Ted, le packge? and the bibster is butta...cause he's on a roll. both teams have some great talent...it is only gonna get better...go FISH, Go Gld

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 17:12
LGB Gold & Apocoplypse Now>(Gold & Apocoplypse Now) ID#269409:
For anyone believing that financial calamity is not right around the corner, consider these worldwide problems which may ultimately drive Gold to the Moon:

* Overpriced bubble stock market threatening catastrophic crash at any time
* Y2K computer problem threatening to destroy world financial markets on 1/1/2000
* North Korea poised to invade south in all out war due to mass starvation and isolation.
* Worldwide population explosion threatens depletion of all resources .
* El Nino causing worldwide drought, flooding, Hurricanes,other weather disasters
* Increase in destructive geologic and meteorological phenomena including killer Earthquakes, floods, Volcanic eruptions, heat waves, Hurricanes, killer storms
* Increase in minor world conflicts, Somalia, Bosnia, several African states, Congo just fell to insurgents last week as latest casualty..
* Worldwide depletion of clean water resources and pumping dry of all major underground aquifers with no replacement in sight.
* CIS loses 100 suitcase size atomic weapons which me be used for terrorist activity or catalyst for world war.
* Increase in world calamity's such as current fires/famine in Indonesia.
* Iran developing Nuclear weapons with Russia's help.
* ASEan market leaders just proposed an Asian style common economic union based on the EU model.
* Worldwide breakdown in stable family structures , and moral values.
* Global economy increasingly linked in ways that would cause failure in one sector to bring down entire house of cards.
* Diseases resistant to know antibiotics on the increase worldwide, including old diseases like TB and new epidemics such as AIDS, Mad Cow, several others.
* Formation of European Union and Eurodollar with conspiratorial directives by certain EU leaders to bury the U.S. as worlds economic leader and replace the dollar with the Euro as the primary currency.
* Increase in rates of cancer and disease due to unknown causes.
* Ozone holes and global warming, mass deforestation
* Heightened middle East tensions leading to highest chance of Arab Israeli war in years. Hamas demands elimination of Jewish state.
* World oil supplies beginning to show signs of shortage, which could lead to massive inflation and economic problems.
* World overdue for the historic Cycles of world war and worldwide depression.
* Biblical and extrabiblical prophecies predict Armageddon during the first 7 years of coming Y2K millennium. Prophecies of Nostradamus also predict this.
* Islamic fundamentalists taking over soveirgn foreign governments
* Polarization of populace into technological Haves' and Have nots . Blue collar jobs disappearing.
* World resources ( including silver ) in decline with demand outstripping production
* CIS / Russian communist and fascist leaders staging a come back and threatening to revert Russia into another Nationalist govt. leading to nuclear war and the end of human race as we know it.

Sell Gold, buy canned food. Have a nice day! ( See, even LGB can take a whack at being pessimistic )

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 17:00
George Cole tax selling>(tax selling) ID#42953:
If the gold stocks remain in the dumps much longer, they probably will face significant tax selling pressure before too many weeks have passed. Just so nobody forgets.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 16:57
JTF @work -- Famine in Indonesia- final attempt>(@work -- Famine in Indonesia- final attempt) ID#57232:
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971020/international/stories/indonesia_3.html

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 16:54
JTF @work -- Famine in Indonesia- resubmission>(@work -- Famine in Indonesia- resubmission) ID#57232:
Jin, All: Indonesian Famine Seen Spreading. Try again!

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971020/international/stories/indonesia_3.html

One wonders if the El Nino was part of the trigger that lead to the SE Asia currency crisis.
Jin -- hope you're doing ok - you probably know all about this.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 16:52
kiwi Gold Clusters>(Gold Clusters) ID#194311:
http://www.gtri.gatech.edu/res-news/GOLD.html

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 16:50
JTF @work -- Famine in Indonesia>(@work -- Famine in Indonesia) ID#57232:
Jin, All: Indonesian Famine Seen Spreading.
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971020/international/stories/indonesia_3.html
One wonders if the El Nino was part of the trigger that lead to the SE Asia currency crisis.
Jin -- hope you're doing ok - you probably know all about this.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 16:45
Ted @ Allen>(@ Allen) ID#364147:
Was just kiddin ya....

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 16:35
Allen USA>(USA) ID#246224:
Ted - I'm not trying to scare you or anyone else. I'm just asking some questions and positting some answers. I hope that in the process of these 'rumenintive' postings to chew through the short term issues in favor of the longer range problems we are facing.

LGB - See above and below, please, for clarification.

All - Our big problem is 'liquidity' as seen in the years long, grinding Japanese situation ( in addition to the other ASEASN nations joining that parade ) AS WELL AS a world with NO anchor. When it is perceived that the US$ is no longer the anchor point then what do you think will happen in terms of world market perspective. My guess is that everyone gets ALOT more paranoid and this creates ALOT more flux and chaos. It spirals out of control because at a certain point everyone realizes that NO ON IS IN CONTROL. Forget about a CB telling you All is OK, just accept a few more recently created $/Y/DM.

Extrapolating from the above ( and with consideration that modern nation states are dependent on the power of their economies more than on the power of their politics or miliraries or religions ) what are the real results of a financial catastrophe for modern government? It will simply cease to function in the way we have become used to in the past 100 years here in the first world.

A few days ago someone mentioned urgent prayer for mercy was the necessity of these times. There are many people in Africa, Russia, Asia that would make sense to right now, don't you think?

Let me ask a few questions. At what point does more paper/loans not work on a world wide scale? The Mexico bailout was a great strain on world banking resources. The recent Thai plan is in serious trouble and is much bigger in terms of total dollars. We have a queue forming in Asia for similar packages. As these nation's financial systems disintegrate one by one, where will they turn? At what point is it that the IMF, the World Bank and the other agencies can no longer persuade commercial banks to extend loans and loan guarantees to these nations? The world economy is so large and so overdrawn that all the banks of the world can not impact the liquidity problems of even small nations.

One phrase might be 'financial paralysis'; the inability to move, even to move in one's own interest of self preservation. The work 'shock' also comes to mind, as in 'He didn't die from his injures; he died from shock.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 16:35
Ted @ capebreton>(@ capebreton) ID#364147:
Microsoft + IBM beat the street's earnings estimates....

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 16:34
JTF @Work>(@Work) ID#57232:
Tolerant1: Is your email site active?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 16:14
kiwi Free trade not so free...again>(Free trade not so free...again) ID#194311:
U.S. losing jobs and wages to trade gap, study says
WASHINGTON ( October 20, 1997 3:10 p.m. EDT http://www.nando.net ) - Trade
between the United States and other countries has resulted in job losses and lower wages for Americans, according to a study released Monday by the Economic Policy Institute.
The study by the liberal think-tank showed a net loss of 2.4 million jobs due to trade between 1979 and 1994. It also said that wages in industries facing rapidly growing imports were 4.5 percent higher than those of fast-growing export industries.
As the trade deficit and globalization of U.S. industries have grown, we have lost more good jobs in industries with rapidly growing import shares than we have gained in the lower-paying sectors experiencing rapid export growth, said the study by institute economists Robert Scott, Thea Lee and John Schmitt.
Consequently, the authors added, trade has had a negative effect on the distribution of wages and job opportunities in the U.S. between 1979 and 1994.
The study was released as Congress has been considering a proposal to give President Clinton fast track authority to negotiate trade agreements.
Scott and Economic Policy Institute President Jeff Faux said the study
findings pointed to the need to attach provisions for labor and environment standards to any fast track legislation.
The report challenged contentions by free-trade proponents who have
argued that expanded trade helps the economy by creating jobs in the
high-paying export sector and boosting overall economic growth.
Scott said those arguments were flawed because they looked only at what
was happening on the export side of the economy without examining imports.
It's like balancing your checkbook by counting up deposits but not the
withdrawals, he said.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 16:11
CC goldbug@ormetal.com>(goldbug@ormetal.com) ID#334219:
JTF: Which Junior precious metals would you buy? Tough question unless you say what kind of risk/reward you are looking for. There are many excellent purchases in both the explorers ( soon-to-be producers ) and producers. SOme are more conservative than others... I like very much, Pan American Silver, FIrst Silver Reserves, Silver Standard, Metallica Resources, High River Gold, Richmont Mines, Viceroy Resources, Claude Resources, Geomaque, Misty Mountain Gold, Alta Gold, Cannyon Resources, Avino Silver & Gold..... the list is much longer..but unfortunetely one cannot buy them all... May I suggest you read my comments at Gold-Eagle for a few ideas.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 16:08
Selby Toronto>(Toronto) ID#287207:
The most important info in Peter Lynch's article ( reprinted below ) is his acceptance of the $317 average cost.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 16:07
kiwi Free trade truths>(Free trade truths) ID#194311:
U.S. losing jobs and wages to trade gap, study says
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/biz/102097/biz12_914.html

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 15:53
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
JTF: email me at tolerant@hotmail.com

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 15:45
JTF @Work>(@Work) ID#57232:
Wichita Lineman, all: Which Junior precious metals would you buy? Some have been mentioned. How about lowest production cost, lowest stock price given assets in ground, best management?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 15:37
JTF @Work>(@Work) ID#57232:
Tolerant1: I was referring more to your discussants, more than you. By the way - I like your style of discussion -- it is what fellow Kitcoites should model - excellent name for your handle. As I recall you were posting in yesterday's Kitco storm without dropping your standards.
Could you tell me how the Gold and Silver reserves company handles your gold? I am interested, but a little uneasy having my assets in someone elses hands. Can you deposit the gold in a bank of your choice? I know that european banks do something like this already.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 15:27
JTF @Work>(@Work) ID#57232:
Allen ( USA ) : Appreciate your thoughtful 14:49 post. What currency goes up if dollar goes down? Since gold is either a currency or a commodity depending where we are in our economic cycles, I would vote that if the paper currencies all head south, gold would be the currency that goes up.
You are right that the only truly safe form of wealth is tangible wealth, and I need to get more if it myself.
You are ( I think ) also on the nose on SE Asia. There will be ( and is ) much bitterness in that area of the world -- much of it toweard the governments that contributed to the problem -- more mostly to the western world. That Nobel prize for the Black-Scholes will not help.
What we are seeing with that unlikely alliance of Japan and China is the groundwork for a major Asian economic alliance which will rival ( and eventualy surpass? ) the Americas, and Europe. Since I suspect that China/Hong Kong are in better shape than their neighbors, I think the immediate crisis is over. However, wait till that flood of cheap goods and automobiles, etc. hits the economies of the western world. US based companies without acces to cheap foreign labor will be hit harder than ever. Foreing trade is now 25% of our GDP. What will it be in a few more years?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 15:24
Ted @ Allen>(@ Allen) ID#364147:
Allen ( 14:49 ) Ya got me scared now....Where's Black Monday 2?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 15:21
The Wichita Lineman @IPMCF>(@IPMCF) ID#374200:
You are lining others pockets with this one. Buying blue sky, not assets, not my style. Take a look at Western Areas, I am bullish on that one, and I think some others here are as well.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 15:19
LGB @Allen>(@Allen) ID#269409:
Allen you're the quintessential definition of the word Optimist

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 15:11
LGB @Witchita, Gold Bugs>(@Witchita, Gold Bugs) ID#269409:
Witchita, you missed my point. I'm not saying Gold is not a good investment right now. Quite the opposite. Remeber, LGB stands for Lurking Gold Bug! Point I was making is that some GoldBugs think we should have Gold backed currency. I disagree as I think that's regressive thinking that too severly limits our ability to respond to a changing world economy, or our own domestic economy. The FED deserves more credit for our LONG TERM prosperity over the past 15 years or so, than they're getting.

I wouldn't want to see the inflation of the Carter years return, and neither would I want to see the crushing misery of a 1930's style depression. Had our current FED policy been radically different in EITHER direction, I bet we'd have had one or the other.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 15:11
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
JTF: I clearly see what you are talking about. Just so there is no mistake, right here and now, I tell you I am a depositor with Gold and Silver Reserve.

Go to http://www.e-gold.com and look for the examiner link. It is the single most transparent measure of seeing my money that I know of. You can view the entire 100% backed by metal that your money represents.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 15:10
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
JTF: I clearly see what you are talking about. Just so there is no mistake, right here and now, I tell you I am a depositor with Gold and Silver Reserve.

Go to http://www.e-gold.com and look for the examiner link. It is the single most transparent measure of seeing my money that I know of. You can view the entire 100% backed by metal that your money represents.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 15:06
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
LGB: I HAVE owned stock in IPMCF for a long time. So far there really seems to be no dispute ( other then the employees in the State of Arizona ) that gold and platinum group metals exist.

A judge heard the case and came down hard on the side of IPMCF and issue a gag order as I stated earlier.

In addition, I think that the main rub with the Arizona State Employee situation was born from the fact that they admitted digging holes 2-3 feet in the ground and formed an opinion.

LET ME SAY VERY CLEARLY - IPMCF is a risk and gamble. This stock is more of a technology play at this point. Should their new technology unlock the potential of tha Black Rock properties and, a big AND, if they can economically mine the property, several experts agree they would be sitting on 50 million ounces of gold and platinum.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 15:05
JTF @Work Re: AGreenspan's ?return to Gold anchor for $>(@Work Re: AGreenspan's ?return to Gold anchor for $) ID#57232:
All: It's a pleasure to see Kitco back to normal, with the interference missing. My take on gold is that gold backing of currency is necessary, simply because it is human nature to inflate our currency in excess of our needs. Modern electronic methods of exchange allow us to take an archaic form of money, such as gold, and adapt it to modern use. The 1990 Univ of Warwick Economic symposium on going back to the gold standard has articles about how much gold each country needs to act as a buffer during shifts in currency valuation. Would be nice to know how much each country would need.
Gold need not be the buffer -- any precious commodity which cannot be inflated excessively will do -- but gold has worked as an anti infaltion anchor for thousands of years. My only concern about our Allen Greenspans's obvious interest in the gold standard ( anchor ) is: How do we make sure that someone does not inflate the electronic currency that is set up? Having gold in the bank is not enough if the anchor to gold is not firm enough to weather the storms.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:59
LGB @John Wetterau, IPMCF>(@John Wetterau, IPMCF) ID#269409:
John you said IPMCF is being victimized by a massive disinformation campaign. By whom? With what agenda in mind? What evidence do you base this statment on? You don't by any chance OWN some shares do you

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:58
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
Wichita Lineman: You see everything as a game of Poker. Everybody walks up to a table and brings something they have of value. Each and every person then agrees that even though they are different things and amounts, they are of equal value.

Then they are issued CHIPS, each one gets the exact same amount of chips. Everybody can now think about the game as they are all playing apples against apples because a cogent decision was made by each pariticipant to make each chip equal in value.

Now, instead of CHIPS I say COINED GOLD each coin representing the exact same measure, grain for grain. We have now established a given, a constant. That which does not rely on the word of another. One exact measure grain for grain coin is equal to another.

Everybody now knows there is one money, agreed upon, and this is gold and that ain't.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:55
john wetterau IPMCF tolerant1>(IPMCF tolerant1) ID#249243:
IPM has been victimized by a massive disinformation campaign, a not uncommon occurrence in the Nasdaq small caps. The company is most definitely not a scam and has been very well reported on. Check the report by T. Hoare in the third party reports section of the company
web site http://www.ipmcf.com
The company has been endlessly discussed on SI, 23,000 posts. But the gist of all the dd is contained in the above mentioned third party reports. The deposit that they are setting up to mine is very large and has about equal amounts of gold and platinum group metals.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:49
Allen USA>(USA) ID#246224:
JTF - I'm not that good with understanding relationships between oil/gold. All I know is that the big picture says buy gold long term,. Soon enough it will be all but impossible to buy. One question I have is If the dollar goes down, what currency goes up?. Since all the currencies are related. And since the US$ is THE reserve currency against which all others are measured in terms of value, stability, etc Question: what country in their right mind wanting to export to the US would want their currency to appreciate in terms of the US$? A flight away from ALL CURRENCIES would simply, in my imagination, be a tremendous upsurge in commodity prices ( PM's included ) . In other words, my question is sort of a chicken/egg thing: Will commodities lead the devaluation of all currencies or will currency crisis lead to an inflation of commodities?

It seems that Asia is the hot spot right now. They are feeling the full effects of a loss of confidence in all their paper valuations. But in their case there is a solid reference point in the US$. So they will go down but there is still this rope they have ahold of which will keep them from free falling into the abyss ( US importation ) .

What would it take to throw the whole world currency system into a 'valuation' crisis in relation to 'stuff' ( tangible commodities ) ? In that senario we are really talking about the inability of the entire world community to conduct trade in an environment of stability or predictability. What could do that? A world-wide Derivatives melt-down? A world-wide liquidity crisis where everyone from the CB's on down is bancrupt? Meteor impact on Cape Breton? Ted, mate, get to high ground sooon!

I don't know, but it seems to me that if we are to have more than just relative currency realignments it will have to be a financial catastrophe of liquidity of such proportions that no one will be able to comprehend it for months, let alone in the days of its revelation. Anything tangible will be value. All intangibles will be worthless. Deflation from widespread unemployment coupled with inflation from revaluation of tangibles as the only real thing worth anything. Russia's experience after the desolution of the U.S.S.R. comes to mind, only this will be on a world wide level.

I believe we are seeing the grapes beginning to be crushed in Asia. Every country will partake of this cup of wrath. Those in debt will be the most hurt. Those with agricultural or mineral wealth will be princes. Manufacturing, distribution and retailing will be crushed by collapsing markets, over capacity and market unpredictabilities. Finance will be destroyed by debt. Governments will be little more than flickering images on TV's with little power or authority. ( See central Africa ) .

Will this ever happen? It has happened before whenever world empires have collapsed and left voids to be filled by what the vacuum brings.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:48
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
Wichita Lineman: I really wish the Central Banks felt the way you did. But they do not, which should scare you if gold and silver are nothing more then commodities.

The Central Banks know that gold is the only real form of money on the planet. It is a constant, not subject to conversation and promises. It has been this way for thousands of years, in each and every instance, any and all politicians/financial wizards have been relagated to ashes that have tried to change it.

The Central Bankers have done well to have you think of gold as nothing more than a commodity, yet I can assure you that the people of Asia have heard all of it before and they are buying the metals by the ton.

Let us take this a step further and realize that currencies the world over have become nothing more than commodities, you never know what they are worth from one minute to the next.

Why are you so comfortable with a dollar. A very short while ago ( through Central Bank manipulation by the way ) there were 35 dollars to the ounce. Now I think it is 300 and change and moving up and down like a yo-yo.

You tell me, which one is the commodity.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:48
The Wichita Lineman @LGB's lack of accounting skills >(@LGB's lack of accounting skills ) ID#374200:
Depending on what you buy, you can loose you shirt: Those who bought Bre-x after the stories were lemmings. Those who go around and buy up salable assets for 50 cents on the dollar are Warren Buffets. I like to think I am the latter ( I spent too many years with my copy of security analysis to think otherwise ) . My point to all is this: You can exercise value buys in anything. It takes a strong stomach, like Getty said, ya gotta buy straw hats in winter. Gold is not dead, it is dormant, I don't think it should be representative of the nations wealth, BUT AS LONG AS THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO DO, it is attractive. LGB, we don't live in a vaccum, there are people who are for backing with gold, like tolerant1, and when their numbers grow because of inflation pressure, a financial debacle, war, etcetra, I want to be there to prosper. Someone once said that you should never buy something you don't believe in. I remember Buffet walled on Phillip Morris because it was a close to a death dealing company as you can find. But I think gold is different, it ain't a product, it's a symbol, as Buffet may have said, when he bought Handy and Harman ( which was not a great buy ) , it's got franshise value.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:46
LGB @2, Sheller, Civil conduct>(@2, Sheller, Civil conduct) ID#269409:
Once again I must voice agreement. No matter how loudly I protest someone elses point of view ( such as stock predictions based on Lil chunks of rock in space and such ) , I have never once on this forum voiced a request that someone's posts should be squelched, their point of view should be squelched, etc.

Ideas should stand or fall based on evidence and a FREE discussion of such ideas. Not some NAZI fascist censoring attempt ( like some would love to see here ) to limit discussion, to only certain people or points of view.

BTW some one being a nice guy, doesn't immunize their ideas and opinions from withering scrutiny. There is a difference between ridiculing or insulting an idea vs. a person. You don't for example find me getting on here and calling other people Aholes and such a la RJ, and others of his ilk. I may stridently attack an idea, get satricial about the motives or agenda of the poster, but personally I try and refrain from out and out name calling.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:42
Byron @ The Public Library:>(@ The Public Library:) ID#252219:
To All:

One of Canada's most conservative mutual funds, Trimark, brought $775 million in gold certificates over a three-day period in July.

http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/s-15208/reply-2233

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:35
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
LGB: Where did IPMCF come from. Also IPMCF took the state of Arizona to court and the Judge issued a gag order against the state. You can check the news at yahoo and or the IPMCF site.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:31
LGB @Earl, Tolerant, Gold Std.& startups>(@Earl, Tolerant, Gold Std.& startups) ID#269409:
Earl I didn't say the Gold STandard caused the teriible financial times we had during this countries depressions. But it did nothing to prevent them, and the FED in it's early stages still had decades of backward thinking to overcome before refining the tolls it has today to make efforts at monetary control. Those tools will never be perfect in a free market, only helpful at trying to keep some balance and prevent runaway inflation/deflation, etc.

As to Gold Start-ups Tolerant, I think even people with short memories can remember Bre-X and that's why they're not buying. just last week there was an article on IPMCF that indicated the company had falsified it's research and it's finds. Makes one pause a little, in spite of bargain prices. A $5.00 Junior Gold can go to $0.00 just as easy as going to the Moon. It's a high risk, high reward thing and should be limited to investment funds that you can lose. But they are an alternative to Options and Futures as an interesting leverage vehicle if the market goes higher.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:28
2 @I can hear you in the wires...>(@I can hear you in the wires...) ID#194225:
Good point, WL, about the near unstealability of AU reserves. Profound. Deep, perhaps. LGB, I heartily concur: Boo #2 for divination per the stars. Yet, like you no doubt, I cannot but receive a man, even if he is a member of the High Church of the Order of Magnitude, if he will but limit his participation here to the purposes of this forum and forswear, other than by example, promoting the proselytic and apologetic purposes of his sect.

How much more so such a fine and well-behaved gentleman as our own illustrious MS...

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:28
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
Wichita Lineman: Yes, gold is rare in it's qualities. Far more trustworthy from an historical viewpoint than the lies of politicians and owners of the private CBs and or reserve. ( I refuse to call it the Federal reserve because there is nothing about it which is Federal )

Gold is Gold, lies are lies. Gold is money, lies are not.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:25
The Wichita Lineman @tolerant1 & LGB on silver>(@tolerant1 & LGB on silver) ID#374200:
From one metal to another, I view silver in the same way as gold. I look at supply and demand. In this light silver and gold look good, while copper looks crappy. I recently bought some extremely cheap copper producers that are turning a profit because their cash costs are in the 67-75 cent range, thus as Lynch pointed out, you can still make a modest profit, and if I can by at a huge discount, then its sort of a Ben Graham Buy. As for silver, Most people turn to Sunshine, but if you examine it, there are too many problems with it. I have found a few silver plays on Vancouver, one which is trading extremenly cheap with very good prospects in Mexico, piles of cash, no debt, and the like. I would deerely love for the Hunts, ( is it Lamar, are they still alive ? ) , to try again. Its not a huge market so someone could squeeze it. Supplies at COMEX are drying up and the low price is making new ventures a thing of the past. I am bullish on silver and gold and copper stocks in this environment, I just make sure to diversify because you never know which story the market will fall in love with.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:23
LGB @Tolerant1, Gold backed currency>(@Tolerant1, Gold backed currency) ID#269409:
And just how would we back the currency of a Trillion doller economy with Gold pray tell? Especially in a golbal economy with constantly shifting markets and Paradigms? Money is simply a tool of exchange, it should remain flexible to best serve us, the populace who use it to trade our talents for other goods and services. Tying it to Gold in this day and age would do little to improve the efficiency of that process. What works is having sound monetary policy. AG has done a pretty good job overall. When have we ever had such a prolonged time of plenty for so many? I say enjoy it while it lasts.

Cycles or no cycles, paper bubble or no, our current policy has done far more to insure us against a disastrous future than any Gold backed currency would have. It's precisely the current fiscal policy that has allowed such long sustained economic growth as to allow us to become the most productive economic power on earth, while diversifying our wealth and industrial base to the point that when bad times DO come, we'll be a hell of a lot better off than we would have been if we'd remained Luddites with Gold backed currency and all it's restrictions.

Go ahead and call me a Lemming folks. The facts speak for themselves. With inflating populations, and growing industries, you must inflate paper in order to propser, or just to stay even. Had we not done so we'd ALL be worse off today.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:21
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
LGB: No, the gold standard was not 100% backed by gold, grain for grain of the yellow metal. Origianlly our Founding Fathers had this in my mind, but to my knowledge the gold standard did not reflect a 100% tie to gold, grain by grain as the FF had wanted.

I just saw your last post - take a look at FSR.v ASGMF SSRIF and a little know company ITRO

Good luck with the white metals as I think they will perform very well.


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:19
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com) ID#227238:
LGB: unwashed masses allowed to post .... Damn! I showered for nothing. .... It seems to be source of constant reassurance to you to hang on to the tired shibboleth, that evil gold was the cause of the great depression and all of the heartache and misery that ensued. If I remember correctly, the Fed had been in existence for more than a decade prior and had full control of money and credit during that entire period. ..... Why not ascribe the reasons for the debacle to the Fed instead?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:16
The Wichita Lineman @LGB>(@LGB) ID#374200:
Your post about the gold standard was unnecessarily harsh. In effect if you read my posts, I generally feel the same way, I just try not to hurt anyone's feelings. Backing the nation with gold is archaic in my view and gold is not a symbol of a country like peace, order and good leadership is. In my view, it is nothing more than a very rare metal in the earth that has exceptional qualities, and is attractive for adornement. That's it, it is not our god, or a representation of who we are as human beings striving for further intelligence in the various sciences. I know I am going to sound like a svengalli, but I really think there will be a time when together with micro-engineering and computer code, gold could be manufactured from lead or some other element that is close to it in atomic weight at orbital structure. I have faith in science, and I beleive in the capability of the human race. Gold is simply a rare element, period.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:13
LGB @Tolerant, Gold Standard>(@Tolerant, Gold Standard) ID#269409:
Tolerant1 , your 12:25 post Wasn't that a pitch for Gold standard?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:11
LGB @Tolerant1, silver>(@Tolerant1, silver) ID#269409:
After slamming you on Gold standard, I must totally agree with your silver comments re copper. Like you, I believe silver has all kinds of reasons for upside potential, not the least of which is diminishing supply/increasing consumption. Above ground stocks disappearing, and a Comex inventory so low that another Hunt Borthers debacle could occur at any time, and probably will. I have moved a substantial amount of my net worth into silver and PLatinum as I await the Equities correction that I still think will take place.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:09
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
TO LGB: I believe that you are mistaken. I did not mention the gold standard.

I said very specifically - 100% backed by gold.

That is NOT the gold standard which was bastardized by promises.

100% backed by gold.

Read my post.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 14:00
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
TO LGB: I do not think copper is bearish for silver for three reasons. If copper production goes down, it only means less silver by product is being produced by these companies. Secondly, there are very few pure silver producers, as many have gone off in search of gold as the silver market has been depressed for a lengthy period. Last but not least. There is a severe shortage of silver looming on the horizon, less mines producing, less above ground supply...

My thinking is that the silver market is very misunderstood, which in my opinion leads to the white metal making a substantial move in the near future.

As an after thought, it would not take much for one or two large players to squeeze the market to artificial and historic highs.


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 13:59
LGB @Tolerant1, Gold Standard>(@Tolerant1, Gold Standard) ID#269409:
Oh yeah Tolerant, that's what I want. A return to the Gold standard so we can suffer through Depressions, such as we had in the past when we were so wise as to tie monetary policy to a fixed commodity in a rapidly changing economy. Those were the Good Old Days. Starvation, loss of everything, bankruptcy from top to bottom.

UmmHmm, ahhh how I long for the Gold Standard so we can enjoy those prosperous times again. We could all suffer together with nothing, and know we're being wise and prudent and not allowing any phony paper bubble to cause us unecessary wealth & gain.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 13:53
LGB Copper bearish? Influence on silver?>(Copper bearish? Influence on silver?) ID#269409:
This article is bearish on copper long term. Since a large percentage of silver production is as a byproduct of copper, would we see this as long term bearish or bullish for silver?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 13:43
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
Wichita Lineman: It is still a promise and therefore subject to fulfillment.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 13:43
The Wichita Lineman Junior Golds perhaps the most secure investment right now, no kidding >(Junior Golds perhaps the most secure investment right now, no kidding ) ID#374200:
In my tirade on gold, I want to point out that in this vastly inflated market of financial assets, junior gold stocks are so cheap, it is silly. Supposedly, a junior miner has untold potential to reap 10, 20 or 50 baggers on the heels of a great discovery, so they get good valuations. Not now, thats for sure. I have come across 2 juniors, and I am sure there are more, THAT ARE SELLING FOR LESS THAN CASH IN THE BANK, thats crazy, it means the market thinks the company is so stupid there are idiots at the helm. This gives nothing to deferred assets, or inventories, equip, etcetera. In addition, juniors hold zero debt for the most part. Thus Kitcoites, I am fully agreeing with those of you who see tremendous upside and almost negligable downside in the number of juniors out there that are cash rich, good prospects, no debt and most of all selling for a song, or in this case, less than cash on hand. Really, Its very rare I ever see that in this age of Netscape trading at 250x trailing earnings. Buy on !

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 13:39
LGB @Sheller>(@Sheller) ID#269409:
Sheller re your 06:45, I totally agree with you ( on the reasons why the general unwashed masses should be allowed to post here ) . See, I don't have to take a contrary position to EVERYthing you post Mike...just that Astrology stuff!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 13:38
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
TO ALL: Mr. Soros is an interesting fellow.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/20/z0000_16.html

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 13:36
The Wichita Lineman @Major, very good point: Its in the ground, don't worry. >(@Major, very good point: Its in the ground, don't worry. ) ID#374200:
Major, good point about reserves. It also makes holding the physcial a questionable prospect. As Lynch elluded to in his article, there is an almost unlimited supply of gold, it just a matter of wanting it bad enough. Here in Canada, as major said, why should the Bank of Canada hold if it can simply say, like an oil company: Look IMF or people buying Canadian Paper, if you are frightened of our debt, Quebec or the lack of gold backing us, we have untold millions of ounces in the 'probable' category, if we get in trouble, we'll go and get it. Then will you be happy ?. I know this sounds silly, but if you have a good idea where it is and how to get it, but it costs too much and nobody is really clamouring for it, I say just let it sit there. In theroy, The way gold is held in the ground in breccia and gossan ore is perhaps the most secure form of security that anyone could devise, what theif would go through all that troubble to get at your gold.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 13:15
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
TO ALL: In case it matters, MICROSOFT just got hammered but the United States Justice Department. Reno and Justice came down on the side of NETSCAPE

Micorsoft down 11/2 Netscape up 4

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 12:56
arden ardengold@msn.com>(ardengold@msn.com) ID#201238:

Tolerant 1 - your 9:25 article on silver is a must read. It has much more info in it that your low key intro might suggest. If comex silver stocks have fallen 60 million oz since June 1 because of arbitrage buying by Europe, how much have world silver stocks fallen? It lloks to me like the dam is about to break for silver prices!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 12:45
palmer at canuck>(at canuck) ID#224129:
5555555

Yes I agree it's a shame that people under pressure tend to react in childish and petulant manor

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 12:42
The Major @The Lynchster>(@The Lynchster) ID#372425:
Steve:I posted this from URL last night but it may not have worked.

Witchita:I agree to a degree...but what you are saying is the original
purpose and reasoning for retaining gold in vaults would have to change.
That is,in the event of a currency meltdown or other catistrophic events
in a country,it's creditors would have to be willing to accept something
other than gold as it's backing.But,many countries will continue to use
gold in vaults for this purpose and others like Canada and Austrailia
simply guarantee they have access to a sufficient quantity of gold from
mineral deposits in that country that they may expropriate.Intrestin huh?

















11/97-Keep Digging

By Peter Lynch

So your Krugerrands haven't panned out. It's still possible to
uncover good gold-mining companies.

Let's try this again. back in June 1995, I made my pitch for gold in the pages of
Worth. It seemed like the right time: Inflation was showing signs of life, and
world gold demand was on the rise. Annual fabrication demand alone--for gold
destined for actual use, primarily in jewelry and the electronics industry, as
opposed to gold to be held in coins and ingots as investments--exceeded the
amount being taken out of the ground. Simply on a supply-and-demand basis, it
all seemed like a promising recipe for gold prices and hence for gold stocks and
funds.

Well, I was right about the demand side of the equation but wrong about supply.
Like most gold analysts and gold-fund managers, to say nothing of the
long-suffering goldbugs, I didn't see some things coming. And therefore I didn't
anticipate the way the price of gold would stagnate for a while, pop nicely higher
for a while, and ultimately collapse like a central banker at the end of a long,
hard week. In mid-1995, gold traded at a spot price of about $385 an ounce. It
climbed in 1996 to $416. It dropped nearly $100 an ounce, to $318, by early
this summer, and as I write, it's at $323.

The trend has been ugly, I know, but I think things may begin looking up for
gold--and, more important for our purposes, for gold-mining companies. The
best news is that if you buy the right companies the commodity price doesn't
have to jump for the stocks to show a nice increase.

In the broadest sense, the problem with gold is that it is undergoing a
re-evaluation. The central banks of many countries are wondering if gold's
traditional role has any meaning in the modern global economy. For centuries, a
country's gold reserve has been the representation of its wealth. The very
definition of a devalued currency has been one that isn't backed by gold. But in
some places the men with their hands on the levers are weakening in their faith.
Maybe the best measure of economic strength, they're saying, is something less
physical--purchasing power in the world's markets, perhaps. Maybe gold is just
a metaphor--a metaphor that doesn't pay dividends or go up in value. The heck
with it.

I've talked with people who think this reassessment of gold is savvy and long
overdue and with people who think it's foolish, perhaps catastrophic. It's not
important to take a position here. What's important is that in the past two years a
number of central bankers have decided they didn't particularly care whether
their vaults held gold anymore, and they sold ( in some cases because they
needed to raise cash ) . I said I had messed up the supply side of the scenario two
years ago. That's a large part of what went wrong: Central banks unloaded gold
at an accelerated pace.

The amount of gold dumped by the central banks wasn't enormous--they still
hold 97.6 percent of the gold they held at the end of 1994. But that's not the
point. Gold, much more so than any other commodity, is about sentiment and
psychology. There's a sense that central banks aren't playing by the old rules.

Australia, for example, sold two-thirds of its reserves this summer--the
government said it would rather buy foreign bonds, which at least pay some
interest. Investors have seen this sea change and have asked a pretty fair
question: If banks don't want gold, who the heck does? Gold has traditionally
been regarded as an inflation hedge, but that is dependent on the same
metaphor, the same set of assumptions. ( Not to mention that inflation has been
quiescent more or less worldwide. ) To some people it has begun to appear that,
as Jim Rogers said in Worth earlier this year, gold just doesn't work anymore.

I should touch on the infamous Bre-X Minerals scandal. You remember that:
The company announced that it had found an enormous reserve in the jungles of
Indonesia. And then it announced that there had been...a...mistake. There was
no gold. Recriminations followed, to say nothing of lawyers. A company
geologist leaped from a helicopter. The company itself has disappeared.

In real terms, this shouldn't have mattered very much. It was even possible to see
the bad news as good news: No huge new reserve meant less new supply to
dilute demand. But investors saw the scandal in the context of a market that had
become odd and unpredictable. They saw it as just another thing not to like
about gold. Bre-X didn't cause the collapse of gold prices and gold stocks, but it
darkened an already negative atmosphere.

So where do I get the nerve to suggest that you look into gold stocks? I'd like to
humbly point out that I was correct two years ago about the demand side of the
gold equation. Every year since 1991, in fact, demand has outstripped what is
known as the mine and scrap supply. Last year, the gap was about 8.4 million
ounces, about 2.3 times the gap in 1994. Much of the demand comes from
Asia--in particular India and China. The economies in those countries are
increasing rapidly and producing a growing middle class. What are these people
going to do with their wealth? They tend to live a long way from a Circuit City.
Cars are still out of the question for many of them. If Indians and Chinese can't
convert their money to stuff, as Americans so vigorously do, they're going to
save it--and they still like to do that, in part, by buying high-karat gold jewelry. A
lot of people think this demand, though it has proved price-sensitive, provides a
bottom for the market.

The supply issue is probably better under control now, too. Beginning in 1980,
when the price of gold shot up to $850, mining companies reacted as you might
expect: They explored frantically, sunk new mines, re- opened old mines. They
spared no expense, and why should they have? If you can get $850 an ounce,
you can make a profit at almost any production cost.

Some of those mines are playing out now; they've had their eight or ten years of
production. Others are too expensive to operate in a $330-an- ounce market.
According to Gold Fields Mineral Services, a London-based research firm, the
industry-wide total cost of getting an ounce of gold out of the ground has risen to
an average of $317--a dollar less than the recent low spot price.

Even the great mines of South Africa are finally winding down. They've had
amazing runs--100 years and more--but now the gold isn't coming as easily. Or
as cheaply: Labor costs have gone in the opposite direction as gold prices. South
Africa is not what it used to be as a gold producer. As for central-bank sell-offs,
they probably won't be as numerous or have the same kind of impact in the
future. Investors now understand that banks can sell. They also know there's a
limit to how much they can sell. Australia's sale a few months ago was dramatic
symbolically, but in relative terms the country never had much gold to sell. In
dumping two-thirds of its reserves, Australia put just 5.9 million ounces of gold
into circulation. The U.S., by comparison, has 44 times that much gold in
reserve, 262 million ounces, and law requires us to hold on to it. Germany,
Switzerland, and France, the next-largest holders of gold ( 95 million, 83 million,
and 82 million ounces, respectively ) , aren't likely to destabilize the world
economy by emptying their vaults either.

What I'm describing is a fairly delicate balance. Demand is healthy but
price-sensitive. Supply is limited ( if not in theory, then in practice ) but not so
limited as to drive prices up.

This is a welcoming environment for investors? Yes, I think it might be. That's
because, first, the price of gold doesn't have to rise for the best mining
companies to produce respectable profits. And second, if the price of gold is
currently at a bottom and does eventually rise, these companies will make huge
profits.

I mentioned that the average company is now spending $317 to get an ounce of
gold out of the ground. Let's say you're investigating a company that's a little
better than average, because of economies of scale or cheaper labor or simply
because its mines yield more gold per ton of rock. Perhaps this company
produces gold for 10 percent less than the average, or about $285 an ounce.
Even with the price of gold limping along at $330, the company can earn good
money.

There's ample proof that good companies can do well for investors even when
gold itself is a bad investment. I asked Lipper Analytical Services to give me a
list of all the gold mutual funds that have been around for 17 years. Seventeen
years ago, of course, gold was at a peak. If you filled your dresser drawer with
Krugerrands then, at $850 an ounce, you have lost 60 percent of your money.
But of the seven gold funds that have been around that long, five show positive
returns. The best, Franklin Gold Fund I, has gained 257 percent. The next best,
Van Eck International Investors Gold Fund, is up 166 percent. Three more
funds managed to stay in the black during these dark days for gold, and even the
worst of them has done better than gold itself.

And what if the spot price of gold actually rises? Again it becomes clear that the
best way to own gold is not to hoard Krugerrands but to own shares in the best
mining companies or in the gold funds that invest in them. Let's say the spot price
manages a 25 percent rally: It rises to $412.50, a little below where it was in
mid-1996. Your Krugerrands are worth 25 percent more. Not bad. But the
company's profits have almost tripled. Where once it cleared $45 an ounce, it
now clears $127.50. When a company's profits jump like that, you can imagine
what happens to the stock price--and gold stocks consistently pay modest
dividends. Gold bars, obviously, don't pay anything.

I'm going to run contrary to the general pessimism and do one more exercise:
Let's imagine that gold hits $500 an ounce. When it comes to investing, and
especially when it comes to gold, I tend to believe that nothing is impossible,
especially if it has happened before. So gold goes to $500 an ounce. If you
bought your Krugerrands at $330, you've cleared 52 percent. You're a genius;
maybe you should start a newsletter. Our imaginary company, however, is now
clearing $215 an ounce. Profits have nearly quintupled. ( This bit of leverage, by
the way, explains something you'll notice when you look up gold stocks in the
newspaper: They trade at extraordinarily high price-to-earnings ratios. A p/e of
50 is not considered out of line for a well-run gold- mining company at today's
gold prices. )

Peter Ward, gold-mining and precious-metals analyst at Lehman Brothers, is
among those people who think that gold is becoming just another commodity,
that more central banks would sell if they could only find a decent price, and
that, with the possible exception of brief spikes downward, the spot price isn't
likely to go much of anywhere in the next 12 months.

Nevertheless, he's excited about a couple of mining companies that have the right
qualities to thrive in the current environment. His favorite is Barrick Gold
( NYSE: ABX; recent price, $21.69 ) , a Canadian firm that is the world's
third-largest producer. The central fact is this: Barrick gets gold out of the
ground for a cash cost ( the actual cost of extraction ) of $200 an ounce and a
total cost of $265 an ounce. Barrick is also the industry leader in hedging: It has
contracts that guarantee it a price of $420 an ounce for much of the gold it
produces over the next three years.

Ward also likes Placer Dome ( NYSE: PDG, $16.13 ) , because it has some
of the same qualities as Barrick. It gets gold out of the ground cheaply ( a cash
cost of $215 an ounce and a total cost of $280 ) , it has a good hedging program,
and it has a clean balance sheet. Victor Flores, senior mining analyst at Marleau,
Lemire Securities of Toronto, thinks the long-term average spot price of gold is
going to linger in a range of $350 to $385. He, too, sees good things for Barrick
Gold.

Flores also likes some medium-size companies. One is Meridian Gold
( NYSE: MDG, $4.25 ) , formerly known as FMG Gold. Another is Crown
Resources ( Nasdaq: CRRS, $6.50 ) , a Denver-based exploration company that
is involved in a joint venture in Washington State with Battle Mountain Gold.
Finally, Flores mentions a company in which I own shares, Boston-based
Pioneer Group ( Nasdaq: PIOG, $30.50 ) . Pioneer is actually a
money-management firm--you've probably heard of the Pioneer Family of
Funds--but it also has mining interests. Among these is a 90 percent stake in
Teberebie Goldfields Limited in Ghana. In Flores's opinion, Pioneer is fairly
valued even without Teberebie figured in. So when you purchase Pioneer, it's
like getting a $500 million gold company for almost nothing.

Let's return for a moment to Barrick Gold. In the spring of 1985, you could have
picked up shares in this company for about 50 cents apiece, adjusted back for
splits. Gold stood at almost exactly the same price then that it does now. By the
spring of 1996, despite a miserable environment for its industry, Barrick traded
at $32 a share--it had become a 64-bagger. Even if you didn't buy until 1990,
and you're still holding on through a recent drop, you've tripled your money and
been paid a small annual dividend for your pains.

Barrick is the kind of company that too few investors are looking for today. It
has an old-fashioned business that anyone can understand. It's not the next big
anything. All it does is consistently make a couple hundred million dollars a year.

No company, including Barrick, is a sure thing, of course. Say the price of gold
begins to rise. The hedging contracts that are now making Barrick so profitable
could become, in the short term, an albatross. If the spot price rose above the
hedging price, Barrick's profits would hit a ceiling, which would suddenly make it
less attractive than some rivals. But don't miss the larger point: There are great
companies in just about every industry. You don't have to understand
cutting-edge trends to identify these companies. You don't have to have an inside
position and buy at the initial public offering. You don't even have to peg the
direction of the world's most psychologically freighted commodity. You just need
to keep your eyes and ears open and understand what makes a company worth
owning.

Peter Lynch is vice-chairman of Fidelity Management and Research. His third
investing book, Learn to Earn, was published last year by Simon & Schuster. He
writes Investor's Edge with Dan Ferrara. Research assistance is provided by
John Fried.

Company Index
Barrick Gold
Placer Dome
Meridian Gold
The Pioneer Group, Inc.









We welcome your comments and questions. Contact info@worth.com

1997 Capital Publishing Limited Partnershipp





Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 12:41
555555555` %%%%%%%%%%>(%%%%%%%%%%) ID#233108:
tolarent1

I agree with your comments about alot of the posters on this site. The dancing bears have been tap dancing on the bulls heads for so long that the bulls are pschyologically very weak

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 12:38
BillD extra characters>(extra characters) ID#258427:
apologies = apologizes

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 12:27
BillD Steve-Perth>(Steve-Perth) ID#258427:
Below is the Lynch article ... apologizes to the rest of the crowd .. page down a few times to get past it, huh....

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 12:25
BillD Goldfinger@Lynch Article>(Goldfinger@Lynch Article) ID#258427:
Let's try this again. back in June 1995, I made my pitch for gold
in the pages of Worth. It seemed like the right time: Inflation was
showing signs of life, and world gold demand was on the rise.
Annual fabrication demand alone--for gold destined for actual
use, primarily in jewelry and the electronics industry, as opposed
to gold to be held in coins and ingots as investments--exceeded
the amount being taken out of the ground. Simply on a
supply-and-demand basis, it all seemed like a promising recipe
for gold prices and hence for gold stocks and funds.

Well, I was right about the demand side of the equation but
wrong about supply. Like most gold analysts and gold-fund
managers, to say nothing of the long-suffering goldbugs, I didn't
see some things coming. And therefore I didn't anticipate the
way the price of gold would stagnate for a while, pop nicely
higher for a while, and ultimately collapse like a central banker at
the end of a long, hard week. In mid-1995, gold traded at a spot
price of about $385 an ounce. It climbed in 1996 to $416. It
dropped nearly $100 an ounce, to $318, by early this summer,
and as I write, it's at $323.

The trend has been ugly, I know, but I think things may begin
looking up for gold--and, more important for our purposes, for
gold-mining companies. The best news is that if you buy the right
companies the commodity price doesn't have to jump for the
stocks to show a nice increase.

In the broadest sense, the problem with gold is that it is
undergoing a re-evaluation. The central banks of many countries
are wondering if gold's traditional role has any meaning in the
modern global economy. For centuries, a country's gold reserve
has been the representation of its wealth. The very definition of a
devalued currency has been one that isn't backed by gold. But in
some places the men with their hands on the levers are
weakening in their faith. Maybe the best measure of economic
strength, they're saying, is something less physical--purchasing
power in the world's markets, perhaps. Maybe gold is just a
metaphor--a metaphor that doesn't pay dividends or go up in
value. The heck with it.

I've talked with people who think this reassessment of gold is
savvy and long overdue and with people who think it's foolish,
perhaps catastrophic. It's not important to take a position here.
What's important is that in the past two years a number of central
bankers have decided they didn't particularly care whether their
vaults held gold anymore, and they sold ( in some cases because
they needed to raise cash ) . I said I had messed up the supply
side of the scenario two years ago. That's a large part of what
went wrong: Central banks unloaded gold at an accelerated
pace.

The amount of gold dumped by the central banks wasn't
enormous--they still hold 97.6 percent of the gold they held at
the end of 1994. But that's not the point. Gold, much more so
than any other commodity, is about sentiment and psychology.
There's a sense that central banks aren't playing by the old rules.

Australia, for example, sold two-thirds of its reserves this
summer--the government said it would rather buy foreign bonds,
which at least pay some interest. Investors have seen this sea
change and have asked a pretty fair question: If banks don't want
gold, who the heck does? Gold has traditionally been regarded
as an inflation hedge, but that is dependent on the same
metaphor, the same set of assumptions. ( Not to mention that
inflation has been quiescent more or less worldwide. ) To some
people it has begun to appear that, as Jim Rogers said in Worth
earlier this year, gold just doesn't work anymore.

I should touch on the infamous Bre-X Minerals scandal. You
remember that: The company announced that it had found an
enormous reserve in the jungles of Indonesia. And then it
announced that there had been...a...mistake. There was no gold.
Recriminations followed, to say nothing of lawyers. A company
geologist leaped from a helicopter. The company itself has
disappeared.

In real terms, this shouldn't have mattered very much. It was
even possible to see the bad news as good news: No huge new
reserve meant less new supply to dilute demand. But investors
saw the scandal in the context of a market that had become odd
and unpredictable. They saw it as just another thing not to like
about gold. Bre-X didn't cause the collapse of gold prices and
gold stocks, but it darkened an already negative atmosphere.

So where do I get the nerve to suggest that you look into gold
stocks? I'd like to humbly point out that I was correct two years
ago about the demand side of the gold equation. Every year
since 1991, in fact, demand has outstripped what is known as
the mine and scrap supply. Last year, the gap was about 8.4
million ounces, about 2.3 times the gap in 1994. Much of the
demand comes from Asia--in particular India and China. The
economies in those countries are increasing rapidly and
producing a growing middle class. What are these people going
to do with their wealth? They tend to live a long way from a
Circuit City. Cars are still out of the question for many of them. If
Indians and Chinese can't convert their money to stuff, as
Americans so vigorously do, they're going to save it--and they
still like to do that, in part, by buying high-karat gold jewelry. A
lot of people think this demand, though it has proved
price-sensitive, provides a bottom for the market.

The supply issue is probably better under control now, too.
Beginning in 1980, when the price of gold shot up to $850,
mining companies reacted as you might expect: They explored
frantically, sunk new mines, re- opened old mines. They spared
no expense, and why should they have? If you can get $850 an
ounce, you can make a profit at almost any production cost.

Some of those mines are playing out now; they've had their eight
or ten years of production. Others are too expensive to operate
in a $330-an- ounce market. According to Gold Fields Mineral
Services, a London-based research firm, the industry-wide total
cost of getting an ounce of gold out of the ground has risen to an
average of $317--a dollar less than the recent low spot price.

Even the great mines of South Africa are finally winding down.
They've had amazing runs--100 years and more--but now the
gold isn't coming as easily. Or as cheaply: Labor costs have gone
in the opposite direction as gold prices. South Africa is not what
it used to be as a gold producer. As for central-bank sell-offs,
they probably won't be as numerous or have the same kind of
impact in the future. Investors now understand that banks can
sell. They also know there's a limit to how much they can sell.
Australia's sale a few months ago was dramatic symbolically, but
in relative terms the country never had much gold to sell. In
dumping two-thirds of its reserves, Australia put just 5.9 million
ounces of gold into circulation. The U.S., by comparison, has 44
times that much gold in reserve, 262 million ounces, and law
requires us to hold on to it. Germany, Switzerland, and France,
the next-largest holders of gold ( 95 million, 83 million, and 82
million ounces, respectively ) , aren't likely to destabilize the world
economy by emptying their vaults either.

What I'm describing is a fairly delicate balance. Demand is
healthy but price-sensitive. Supply is limited ( if not in theory, then
in practice ) but not so limited as to drive prices up.

This is a welcoming environment for investors? Yes, I think it
might be. That's because, first, the price of gold doesn't have to
rise for the best mining companies to produce respectable
profits. And second, if the price of gold is currently at a bottom
and does eventually rise, these companies will make huge profits.

I mentioned that the average company is now spending $317 to
get an ounce of gold out of the ground. Let's say you're
investigating a company that's a little better than average,
because of economies of scale or cheaper labor or simply
because its mines yield more gold per ton of rock. Perhaps this
company produces gold for 10 percent less than the average, or
about $285 an ounce. Even with the price of gold limping along
at $330, the company can earn good money.

There's ample proof that good companies can do well for
investors even when gold itself is a bad investment. I asked
Lipper Analytical Services to give me a list of all the gold mutual
funds that have been around for 17 years. Seventeen years ago,
of course, gold was at a peak. If you filled your dresser drawer
with Krugerrands then, at $850 an ounce, you have lost 60
percent of your money. But of the seven gold funds that have
been around that long, five show positive returns. The best,
Franklin Gold Fund I, has gained 257 percent. The next best,
Van Eck International Investors Gold Fund, is up 166 percent.
Three more funds managed to stay in the black during these dark
days for gold, and even the worst of them has done better than
gold itself.

And what if the spot price of gold actually rises? Again it
becomes clear that the best way to own gold is not to hoard
Krugerrands but to own shares in the best mining companies or
in the gold funds that invest in them. Let's say the spot price
manages a 25 percent rally: It rises to $412.50, a little below
where it was in mid-1996. Your Krugerrands are worth 25
percent more. Not bad. But the company's profits have almost
tripled. Where once it cleared $45 an ounce, it now clears
$127.50. When a company's profits jump like that, you can
imagine what happens to the stock price--and gold stocks
consistently pay modest dividends. Gold bars, obviously, don't
pay anything.

I'm going to run contrary to the general pessimism and do one
more exercise: Let's imagine that gold hits $500 an ounce. When
it comes to investing, and especially when it comes to gold, I
tend to believe that nothing is impossible, especially if it has
happened before. So gold goes to $500 an ounce. If you bought
your Krugerrands at $330, you've cleared 52 percent. You're a
genius; maybe you should start a newsletter. Our imaginary
company, however, is now clearing $215 an ounce. Profits have
nearly quintupled. ( This bit of leverage, by the way, explains
something you'll notice when you look up gold stocks in the
newspaper: They trade at extraordinarily high price-to-earnings
ratios. A p/e of 50 is not considered out of line for a well-run
gold- mining company at today's gold prices. )

Peter Ward, gold-mining and precious-metals analyst at Lehman
Brothers, is among those people who think that gold is becoming
just another commodity, that more central banks would sell if
they could only find a decent price, and that, with the possible
exception of brief spikes downward, the spot price isn't likely to
go much of anywhere in the next 12 months.

Nevertheless, he's excited about a couple of mining companies
that have the right qualities to thrive in the current environment.
His favorite is Barrick Gold ( NYSE: ABX; recent price,
$21.69 ) , a Canadian firm that is the world's third-largest
producer. The central fact is this: Barrick gets gold out of the
ground for a cash cost ( the actual cost of extraction ) of $200 an
ounce and a total cost of $265 an ounce. Barrick is also the
industry leader in hedging: It has contracts that guarantee it a
price of $420 an ounce for much of the gold it produces over the
next three years.

Ward also likes Placer Dome ( NYSE: PDG, $16.13 ) , because
it has some of the same qualities as Barrick. It gets gold out of
the ground cheaply ( a cash cost of $215 an ounce and a total
cost of $280 ) , it has a good hedging program, and it has a clean
balance sheet. Victor Flores, senior mining analyst at Marleau,
Lemire Securities of Toronto, thinks the long-term average spot
price of gold is going to linger in a range of $350 to $385. He,
too, sees good things for Barrick Gold.

Flores also likes some medium-size companies. One is
Meridian Gold ( NYSE: MDG, $4.25 ) , formerly known as
FMG Gold. Another is Crown Resources ( Nasdaq: CRRS,
$6.50 ) , a Denver-based exploration company that is involved in
a joint venture in Washington State with Battle Mountain Gold.
Finally, Flores mentions a company in which I own shares,
Boston-based Pioneer Group ( Nasdaq: PIOG, $30.50 ) .
Pioneer is actually a money-management firm--you've probably
heard of the Pioneer Family of Funds--but it also has mining
interests. Among these is a 90 percent stake in Teberebie
Goldfields Limited in Ghana. In Flores's opinion, Pioneer is fairly
valued even without Teberebie figured in. So when you purchase
Pioneer, it's like getting a $500 million gold company for almost
nothing.

Let's return for a moment to Barrick Gold. In the spring of 1985,
you could have picked up shares in this company for about 50
cents apiece, adjusted back for splits. Gold stood at almost
exactly the same price then that it does now. By the spring of
1996, despite a miserable environment for its industry, Barrick
traded at $32 a share--it had become a 64-bagger. Even if you
didn't buy until 1990, and you're still holding on through a recent
drop, you've tripled your money and been paid a small annual
dividend for your pains.

Barrick is the kind of company that too few investors are looking
for today. It has an old-fashioned business that anyone can
understand. It's not the next big anything. All it does is
consistently make a couple hundred million dollars a year.

No company, including Barrick, is a sure thing, of course. Say
the price of gold begins to rise. The hedging contracts that are
now making Barrick so profitable could become, in the short
term, an albatross. If the spot price rose above the hedging
price, Barrick's profits would hit a ceiling, which would suddenly
make it less attractive than some rivals. But don't miss the larger
point: There are great companies in just about every industry.
You don't have to understand cutting-edge trends to identify
these companies. You don't have to have an inside position and
buy at the initial public offering. You don't even have to peg the
direction of the world's most psychologically freighted
commodity. You just need to keep your eyes and ears open and
understand what makes a company worth owning.

Peter Lynch is vice-chairman of Fidelity Management and
Research. His third investing book, Learn to Earn, was published
last year by Simon & Schuster. He writes Investor's Edge with
Dan Ferrara. Research assistance is provided by John Fried.
Company Index
Barrick Gold
Placer Dome

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 12:25
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
TO: Wichita Lineman: There is a very simple reason to have a nations money backed 100% by gold, it does not rely on the promise of another.

We have relied on reason, intelligence and negotiation and the entire world is broke. Advanced human beings would not spend themselves into oblivion. Politicians world wide and the people that elect them have opted for fiat money supply, hence the intense instability the world over.


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 12:22
JTF @Work>(@Work) ID#57232:
Nick ( @Aussie ) : Interesting regression posts - the gold/dow one I will examine especially carefully. What time range did you use for your regression analysis - simple linear regression, I presume. On your graphs where only one indicator -- what was analysed -- price vs volume, or something else?
Have you done anything with the new time series analysis algorythms ( sp? ) . I have some software ( shareware ) that uses them, but I am unfamiliar with what is actually being analysed - so I don't use it. Much more sophisticated than fourier analysis, and more relevant, too! Still looking for fractal analysis programs and a good explanation of how to use them on the market.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 12:12
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
STEVE-PERTH - I tried to copy but it has html tags/marks so it would not up load to kitco. Sorry. Don.t know how to alter so you can read Lynch article.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 12:08
The Wichita Lineman The psychology of the gold standard>(The psychology of the gold standard) ID#374200:
When a country intends to back it currency with gold, what does it say about that nation . True, the US has not sold its holdings, but is it not much wiser to do what the Fed is doing . For example, if you could a ) find wealth my endlessly toiling to subdue it from rock and sand, or b ) create it as Mr. Cole says out of thin air, like magic, buy making people believe in it. I would choose b. would'nt you. Before you start haranguing me as a non-gold bug, I will say i do expect an advance in the yellow on purely supply deman and psychological factors. But is the Fed living the 'high life' or is that just the way things should be

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:59
The Wichita Lineman Re: Peter Lynchs' Article>(Re: Peter Lynchs' Article) ID#374200:
Does gold matter anymore ?!?!. It seems lynch was most concerned with emphasizing that CBs would rather hold interest producing securities instead of gold. I would too. If gold does not look as though it will rise. Even if gold does rise, the CBs still have to hold it, so where is the benefit. Its like holding on to the family home instead of putting money in stocks. I do think gold deserves a lower importance in the backing of currency. After all, are we a highly advanced civilization or are we like Incas and Prehistoric man who worshipped animals, metals, etcetera. Gold eagle had a piece on if gold mattered anymore, and I suggest you read it. But this does not mean gold is finished, it just has a lower demand. As Lynch said, it has more to do with psychology than actual tonnage figures with many here preeoccupy themselves with. If demand from jewelery and electronics outstrips supply and equals the 7 years of total reserves, that sounds good for the supply-demand situation, espically if mines are uneconomic at today's prices. I think the 1980 price spike was the last we will see of a world flocking to gold because it feared inflation ( or deflation ) . Unfortunately, some things go the way of the dodo bird like the horse and carriage, but it in no way means they dissipear forever, they are just given new and reduced status in society. As for gold itself, it costs a lot of money to get the stuff out of the ground and it's tough to find in big quantities, and for that simple reason, it will never be cheap, just like diamonds or precious stones. But I see that backing a country with gold is archaic and says we are a 'mystic' society, rather than one that relies on reason, intelligence and negoitation like advanced human beings.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:53
general to Goldfinger>(to Goldfinger) ID#365216:
Can you repost your 23:13 note of 19 Oct for those of us who
missed it? Thanks. I hope everyone has some stock shorts in
their portfolio for I hear a storm acommin'.

Keep blastin, storin, and hoardin.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:51
JTF @Work>(@Work) ID#57232:
Larryn: Your 11:24 post is appreciated. As you very eloquently pointed out the dollar/gold/oil correlations, or lack of them, are statistical only -- no cause and effect known -- just inferred. We little guys are the last to know what is actually happening.
One does not need to invoke LBMA, etc conspiracies at our level of access, since we don't have the connections of G Soros.
I agree with you that the dollar may be a safe-haven right now. I have noticed that during international crises ( not affecting US ) gold and the dollar tend to go up together. If the crisis is dollar related, dollar will tend to go down, and gold up.
My impression is that the dollar is under downward pressure right now for several reasons, and is unlikely to continue its rally, even with a nominal rise in rates.
I don't know if our gold rally will be as strong as that of 1980, unless there is a severe dollar crisis. At least, not before January 1998. I think the big one for gold will be 2003-2007, when inflation returns full-blown.
I think you and I are basically doing the same thing -- following multiple indicators, and waiting on the sidelines for the expected gold rally to declare itself. Historically, a 1 1/2 year bear market in gold is typical.
No -- I am not influenced by ANOTHER -- useful for ideas and concepts, but the bottom line is what the market is actully doing. What we have to be watchfull for is a complete market meltdown of all paper trading, though. On this all I can do is scan the posts, and watch the dollar for turmoil. Odds are this will catch us all unawares when it happens!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:49
vronsky LBMA EXPOS: PART 7 (October 20, 1997) A Collective-Mind Analysis Compiled by Red Baron >(LBMA EXPOS: PART 7 (October 20, 1997) A Collective-Mind Analysis Compiled by Red Baron ) ID#427357:
The Onion PARADOX peels yet another layer away from the eventual truth of the LONDON BULLION MARKETING ASSOCIATION...:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron1020.html


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:38
2 @assorted posters>(@assorted posters) ID#2665:
FYI, this is a ribaldry-free site. When I was a child, I spoke as a child.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:31
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au) ID#284170:
HELP RE: Peter Lynch Post/Article
As Web seems a bit overloaded tonight, could someone post his Article
in FULL onto Kitco please. Then I might be able to read it.

WHAT CHEESES ME OFF: Continuous running Ad/Graphics that don't stop, & don't allow the text to be read underneath. Same problem with Business
Week Site also. Major pain in the ......

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:30
2 @assorted posters>(@assorted posters) ID#194225:
FYI, this is a ribaldry-free site. When I was a child, I spoke as a child.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:30
Too much time on this forum ahhhhhhhh!>(ahhhhhhhh!) ID#37438:
Damn you all, do any of you work, or are you an unemployed pogey-miester like me

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:25
John (NOT Hepcat) jatkison@linkonline.net>(jatkison@linkonline.net) ID#252110:
Donald: Good Joke. Here's another along the same theme.

A man who had been marooned on a small deserted island, was making his

morning walk around the island, searching for any useful items that

might of use that washed ashore.

Then he noticed that there was a yellow something bobbing in the surf,

as he watched it it became obvious that it was a person in a yellow

scuba suit. And as he continued to watch, it became obvious that it

was a female in the scuba suit.

As she approached him pulling back the head cover of the suit, he

noticed she was a good looking blonde female. She walked right up to

him.

She asked him, How long have you been here? He replied, It's been

ten years.

She asked him, How long since you've smoked a good cigar? He

replied, It's been ten long years! She reached around her suit and

unzipped a pocket, and extracted a Havana cigar. Finding another

zipper, she produced a lighter. She handed him the cigar, and lit it

as he enhaled. She asked how the cigar was and he said it was better

than he remembered.

She asked him, How long since you've had a drink? He replied, It's

been ten long, long years!! She reached for another pocket in her

suit and unzipped a small flask, and from an additional pocket, found

a whiskey glass. She poured a shot into the flash and handed it to

him. She asked how it was as he sipped the whiskey and smoked the

cigar and he said it was great.

She asked him, How long since you've played around? He replied,

It's been ten long, long, long years!!! She started to pull down the

front zipper of the scuba suit. He kind of leaned toward her as he

looked in wonder down the front of her suit, and he asked,

You got a set of golf clubs in there?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:24
Larryn ...>(...) ID#32078:
JTF.. your 00:00. I don't criticize most correlations which any analyst can develop. I don't have time to follow them all, so I just try and decide wwhich are most accurate over time. Many relationships with gold come and go and may or may not have a valid correlation today.

For instance, oil is priced in dollars, and in the late 60's the price of a barrel of oil was less than $2.00. As the US balance of payments went out of control, there was an abundaance of dollars overseas and some came back as requests for gold, causing the US to 'sell' gold to CBs. Nixon stopped the gold window in 1971/72 ( ? ) because we were losing our stockpile. A few years later during the oil crisis, the Arabs had so much extra cash in dollars that they bought gold. Along with the terrible monetary policy under Carter, gold zoomed as oil leveled and actually decreased in price. Bad correlation then.

Later in the 80's, the Arabs had deficit financing, having rewarded all of the princes with large salaries, and had to sell gold to pay the bills. As oil dropped to $10, gold still gyrated between $280 and 500.

Reference the dollar. The price of gold in a currency is an inverse measurement of the relative value of the currency. As a govt devalues its currency, the price of gold in that currency naturally goes up. The secret is to know before the devaluation so you can buy gold or another more solid currency. The little guy NEVER knows and some of the financial establishment does ( Soros ) .

The dollar is today being used as the safe haven as other currencies are being devalued, and gold in dollars is low. Eventually, history has shown, that no currency is exempt from cycles and the dollar will soon be affected by the many other currencies devaluing against the dollar. Gold will launch like a rocket, not just move up. The climb will feed on itself similar to 1980, just higher. It will be caused partially by the commodity value of gold as shorts cover and by the sudden decrease in the demand for US treasuries overseas. I think there is now a very close relationship between the dollar and gold.


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:23
Goldfinger's Post was not funny or even interesting>(was not funny or even interesting) ID#43438:
IOh yes I found it amusing, I also laugh when I see cats going to the bathroom

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:21
Martha Stewart @Donald the naughty>(@Donald the naughty) ID#35053:
Re: your tort, I know I am your dream girl. I can't wait to tell you what your doing wrong

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:18
Strad Master Huh?>(Huh?) ID#250297:
SIG: OK, I'll bite, too. I just went back and read Goldfinger's post and, just like Tort, I don't see what is so falling down funny about it either. What am I missing? His point about a market washout has been made by many other bearish analyists. ( Most noteably Galbraith and Prechter who have observed that every 60 to 70 years throughout history there has been a market collapse that brought everyone back to financial and moral reality. Even though he's been wrong for awhile now, Prechter's market analysis juxtaposed with mass psychology and behaviour is always interesting to read. Anyway, I always like to give posters the benefit of the doubt so please enlighten me as to what I've overlooked. Thanks.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:13
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Hi Tort: No joke of the day from you? I will step in to bail you out for today...but don't let it happen again!

THE CASTAWAY ENGINEER
A rather inhibited software engineer finally splurged on a luxury
cruise to the Caribbean. It was the craziest thing he had ever done
in his life. Just as he was beginning to enjoy himself, a hurricane
roared upon the huge ship, capsizing it like a child's toy. Somehow
the engineer, desperately hanging on to a life preserver, managed to
wash ashore on a secluded island.
Outside of beautiful scenery, a spring-fed pool, bananas and
coconuts, there was little else. He lost all hope and for hours on
end, sat under same palm tree. One day, after several months had
passed, a gorgeous woman in a small rowboat appeared.

I'm from the other side of the island, she said. Were you on the
cruise ship, too?

Yes, I was. he answered. But where did you get that rowboat?
Well, I whittled the oars from gum tree branches, wove the
reinforced gunnel from palm branches, and made the keel and stern from
a Eucalyptus tree.

But, what did you use for tools? asked the man.
There was a very unusual strata of alluvial rock exposed on the
south side of the island. I discovered that if I fired it to a certain
temperature in my kiln, it melted into forgeable ductile iron.
Anyhow, that's how I got the tools. But, enough of that, she said.
Where have you been living all this time? I don't see any shelter.

To be honest, I've just been sleeping on the beach, he said.
Would you like to come to my place? the woman asked. The engineer
nodded dumbly.

She expertly rowed them around to her side of the island, and tied
up the boat with a handsome strand of hand-woven hemp topped with a
neat back splice. They walked up a winding stone walk she had laid
and around a Palm tree. There stood an exquisite bungalow painted in
blue and white.
It's not much, but I call it home. Inside, she said, Sit down
please; would you like to have a drink?

No, thanks, said the man. One more coconut juice and I'll throw
up!

It won't be coconut juice, the woman replied. I have a crude still
out back, so we can have authentic Pina Coladas.
Trying to hide his amazement, the man accepted the drink, and they
sat downon her couch to talk. After they had exchanged stories, the
woman asked,Tell me, have you always had a beard?
No, the man replied, I was clean shaven all of my life until I
ended up on this island.

Well if you'd like to shave, there's a razor upstairs in the
bathroom cabinet.

The man, no longer questioning anything, went upstairs to the
bathroom and shaved with an intricate bone-and-shell device honed
razor sharp. Next he showered -- not even attempting to fathom a
guess as to how she managed to get warm water into the bathroom --
and went back downstairs. He couldn't help but admire the masterfully
carved banister as he walked. You look great, said the woman. I
think I'll go up and slip into something more comfortable.

As she did, the man continued to sip his Pina Colada. After a short
time, the woman, smelling faintly of gardenias, returned wearing a
revealing gown fashioned out of pounded palm fronds. Tell me, she
asked, we've both been out here for a very long time with no
companionship. You know what I mean. Have you been lonely...is there
anything that you really, really miss? Something that all men and
woman need? Something that would be really nice to have right now!

Yes there is! the man replied, shucking off his shyness. There is
something I've wanted to do for so long. But on this island all alone,
it was just...well, it was impossible.

Well, it's not impossible, any more, the woman said.
The man, practically panting in excitement, said breathlessly: You
mean you actually figured out some way we can check our e-mail?


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:10
Ray Bradbury's Theatre @Mr. Dark>(@Mr. Dark) ID#41353:
By the pricking of my thumbs --- something wicked this way comes

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:08
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au) ID#284170:
THE LATEST NEWS & UPDATES VIA AUSTRALIA

Proof that Australia DID flush over $1 BILLION down Thailand's toilet
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971021/pageone/pageone2.html

Hong Kong may be next to fall
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971021/business/business10.html

Downsizing of Australia - Households reeling from dismissals
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971021/pageone/pageone8.html

Conservative Govt Aged Care reforms sends message of fear to their key Voter base
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971021/national/national1.html

Black Market in Guns explode in Australia due to failed Gun Buy-back scheme ( Bikie groups now have a product people really want for cash )
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971021/national/national8.html

Undaunted Mahathir flying out to drop a CHOGM bomb ( Jamming it up Soros! )
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971021/world/world3.html

New Threat to Yeltsin's Rule ( The communists are rattling their sabres )
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971021/world/world8.html

New inflation figures may stay Reserve Bank of Australia's Hand
( Only if our currency follows Asia will this be the case )
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971021/business/business6.html

EMU confusion hits UK shares
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971021/business/business7.html

NICK ( Canberra ) : What we need is for a good female Asian Australian to run for Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party. That might put the wind up Cheryl Kernot.

BTW, the Western Australian Liberal Party is starting to make a few noises at senior levels about 1. Aged Care, 2. Health Care
3. Superannuation legislation ( dumb & dumber ) 4. State Based Tax reform 5. The level playing field that only Australia seems to be playing on.

The message was that THESE messages had better start getting through our Federal Members of Parliament to John Howard OR ELSE!!!!


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:08
John Denver's Head bobbing in the sea>(bobbing in the sea) ID#25438:
There is a deadly lull in the market right now. beware

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 11:08
vronsky GENE INGER MARKET FORECAST>(GENE INGER MARKET FORECAST) ID#426220:
Internationally acclaimed & venerable Mr. Inger shares his market insights & wisdom with us. Lately he's been VERY HOT-VERY HOT! Per Inger's Worst case scenario is DOW could drop 30%...:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger1020.html


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 10:56
2 @Goldfinger>(@Goldfinger) ID#194225:
( 1 ) Yes, I too read Glodfinger's post, and it rates ( IMHO ) no less than 8.5/10. A sincere and reasoned discourse, appropriately timed.

( 2 ) Peter Lynch is agreeing with many of the oft-maligned habitues of this fine site. Repeat, a fine site, and thank you to Kitco for it.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 10:34
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com) ID#36965:
Ted, so the Hong Kong market is sucking wind this morning. How's the US paper market faring? I can't seem to access any of my sites which gives this information. It looks like the metals are treading water ever so slightly. Nice weather here in the Taco Belt. What am I doing at work anyway?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 10:31
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com) ID#36965:
Sig, I read Goldfinger's post to which you referred. I'm kind of curious as to what was so falling down funny about it. It may have not been the most artfully crafted post but I think he is right in that the USA is suffering moral decay and could use a dose of renewed decency.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 10:27
2 @worldwide calamity>(@worldwide calamity) ID#194225:
( 1 ) Sealark's 0839 post is a must-read. This is a Hall-Of-Fame market guru ( Peter Lynch ) saying ( or implying ) that he has been pro-gold without apology for two years or so, if I read him correctly.

( 2 ) For a thorough and engagingly presented discussion of the Y2K problem by a respected expert, go to

http://www.yourdon.com

and look for the forthcoming book Time Bomb 2000, a draft of which is now posted on the net and available for reading or printing.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 10:25
joem joeym@hotmail.com>(joeym@hotmail.com) ID#25338:
hey can anyone give the names of low priced austrailian adr's
trading in new york

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 09:53
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
SIG: reruns of the MOD SQUAD will do that to a person RE: Goldfinger

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 09:46
sig sig@concentric.net>(sig@concentric.net) ID#287389:
To All:

Last nights post by GOLDFINGER [10/19/97 at 23:13] is the funniest post I ever read. Funny enough to double you over with laughter! I apologize if your serious GOLDFINGER, but I think its HEPCAT. Go right now and look -- its great!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 09:36
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Fiend's SuperBear Market Report
Good rave on market internals.
http://home.sprynet.com/sprynet/fiendbea/marketre.htm

IBM profits out today.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 09:31
Olson @Lawyers>(@Lawyers) ID#236145:
A man goes to see a Lawyer...
Man : Hello, how are you?
Lawyer : Ok.
Man : What are your fees?
Lawyer : $50 for three questions. Whats your third question?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 09:25
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
Silver news for those of you that are interested.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/20/y0023_z00_11.html

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 08:57
Say it ain't so ,Joe @ metals>(@ metals) ID#280174:


NEW YORK, Oct 20 ( Reuters ) - New York metals futures were called to open as follows:

COMEX Dec gold - unchanged to down $0.50 an ounce

COMEX Dec silver - unchanged to down 1.0 cent

NYMEX Jan platinum - unchanged to down $1.00

NYMEX Dec palladium - down $1.00 to $2.00

COMEX Dec copper - unchanged to up 0.20 cent a lb

M

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 08:57
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
I vowed I'd never need small change again -- Belinda Mulrooney as she threw a silver coin into the Klondike River at the beginning of the great Klondike gold rush, which started on August 16th, 1896.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 08:39
Sealark Someone with a positive view>(Someone with a positive view) ID#9385:
For a Peter Lynch's view of gold, see http://www.worth.com/articles/Z9711E01.html

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 08:39
tolerant1 @large>(@large) ID#31868:
TO ALL: Clinton may well be on the road to becoming toast. Not as many suspect, due to the tapes and other accusations that have been in the media.

The Dali Lama may have been the camel that broke this razor's back. It appears that a great many Hollywood entertainers are upset about the remarks of the Chinese government relating to serphs and slavery.

The upcoming trip by the Chinese may be the last straw. People argue about the fact that the entertainment industry has become the most public swaying force in the US.

Lets see what happens.

On registering and closing Kitco to a select few. I say horsepuckey. People that push for this should apply for a job at the CB. A small group, that thinks they know better. And manners, manners, manners. Oh, my!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 08:34
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Must read
http://www.btinternet.com/~stargate/comodity.htm

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 08:19
Ted @ the world according to Garp>(@ the world according to Garp) ID#364147:
Hot off the press:
October 20, 1997

Stocks Tumble Across Asia;
Hong Kong Drops 4.6%

An INTERACTIVE JOURNAL News Roundup

Volatile currency trading, a drop on Wall Street and domestic economic
worries sent Asian stocks reeling Monday.

Hong Kong stocks tumbled to their lowest level in nearly six months
Monday on the back of a weaker U.S. equities market and investor fears
of a local interest rate hike. The blue-chip Hang Seng Index fell 4.6%.

U.K. banking giant HSBC Holdings topped the session's most active list in
Hong Kong. The stock fell 6 Hong Kong dollars to HK$227. Volume on
the blue-chip index's most heavily weighted stock was valued at HK$1.97
billion. Rate-sensitive banking and property stocks were the hardest hit.

Kenny Tang, research head of C.A. Pacific Group, said uncertainty about
the profit margins continued to dog the shares of blue-chip developers.
Investors are unclear of the effect of Chief Executive Tung Chee Hwa's
decision to vastly increase the supply of government land available for
development.

Tokyo's market fell, reflecting investors' expectations that the economic
support package due out Tuesday won't be enough to bolster the
Japanese economy. The Nikkei average of 225 selected issues closed at
17294.51, down 183.91.

It is clear that the coming package to be released by the Liberal
Democratic Party will not satisfy investors or business people, said Yuichi
Kohashi, chief strategist and general manager of the investment advisory
department at Daiwa Securities.

I don't see too much excitement on that score, said Stephen Wood, a
senior salesman at ING Baring Securities. The underlying impact on the
economy will be negligible.

The package is expected to include measures to stimulate land
transactions, but not to include an income tax cut -- a measure deemed
critical to boost consumption.

The Tokyo market was also hit by a tumble in Wall Street share prices
Friday. Weakness in high technology U.S. stocks affected their
counterparts in Tokyo. Mitsubishi Electric declined 25 yen to 433, NEC
dropped 40 yen to 1,480, Fujitsu fell 50 yen to 1,460 and Sharp sank 10
yen to 1,030.



Roundup of Asian markets



Share prices on the Korea Stock Exchange plunged to a new five-year
low Monday as jitters over more corporate troubles battered the market.
The bearishness reflects several bankruptcies and other financial problems
facing traded companies. The benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price
Index plunged 19.07, or 3.2%, to 565.64, the lowest level since Oct. 24,
1992, when it ended at 557.86.

The Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange fell 3.4% as investors decided the
1998 government budget announced Friday wasn't the cure-all they had
been hoping for.

The key index in Manila dropped 1.7%, falling in line with other regional
markets. Indonesia's key index fell 1.2% on selling in some
large-capitalization shares amid the weakened rupiah against the dollar.

In Taiwan, panic selling continued to send stocks into tailspin Monday
amid a breakdown in investors' confidence. Investors disregarded all the
government's market-rescue packages and positive remarks attempting to
encourage investors confidence made by government officials. The Taiwan
Stock Exchange Weighted Index sank 301.67 to a 37-week low of
7316.78, following Saturday's plunge of 213.70 points.

Thai share prices plunged, dragging the key index down by 3%, amid
selling on worries about the frequent change in the country's finance
minister. Finance Minister Thanong Bidaya on Sunday said he will resign
after an expected cabinet reshuffle is completed.

Return to top of page
Copyright 1997 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 08:13
Ted @ TGIM + King of The Gulag>(@ TGIM + King of The Gulag) ID#364147:
Mornin Nick ( C ) .....root for the tribe!!...Wow,Asia relly took it up the wazoo last night---could we have a grim Monday on Wall Street..King Of The Gulag:I see you have crawled out from under yer rock---things must be real slow in Edmonton...eh!...you can run but ya can't hide, bro..Beautiful day and will shortly jumping into the yacht ( kayak ) and hunt for whale...

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 07:55
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Brown tries to stave off shares slide over EMU
http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/Times/frontpage.html?1124027
GORDON BROWN was forced last night to try to calm stock markets braced for a dramatic fall today after his indication that Britain would not join a European single currency for at least five years.


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 07:52
Donald donald@uconect.net>(donald@uconect.net) ID#26793:
Nick@Aussie: Looking at your Dow 1900-1997 chart and making a comparison to the bb fisher chart for the same time period, only with the Dow priced in ounces of gold, the difference in the impact on ones thinking is significant. If you don't have the bb fisher chart I can send you one by postal service if you e.mail me your postal address.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 07:43
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Reuters to reveal computer timebomb exposure
http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/Times/frontpage.html?1124027

Reuters has admitted that its Series 3000, the newest and most advanced of its information products designed as its latest weapon against Bloomberg, a rival, could be badly affected by the bug. Peter Job, chief executive, has told shareholders that the company views the matter as a very serious issue with wide ramifications.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 07:35
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net) ID#26059:
..and the fuse to the massive market changes that are coming is going to be Bill Clinton...those tapes are acting like lead weights on a swimmer, getting heavier every day and exposing the liar that he is

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 07:25
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
Lurker--re: your comments on Aussies/women and racism.

1 ) We both know the type of Aussie women that American sailors mingle with!! It was your money they were interested in, mate.

2 ) Please find ONE instance of Nick, Nick, Steve, Aurator or Kiwi referring to Japanese as Japs. The ONLY references to that pejorative term I have seen came from Americans. Go ahead, find ONE!! Personally, my stepmother is Asian, my brother is half Asian, my sister is married to an Asian and I DO take offence at your reference. We have the largest %age of Asian immigrants of any western nation--and we WELCOME them. Look in your own back yard, mate!!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 07:16
Bob A atwork>(atwork) ID#18388:
Plat. and Pall are takeing a hit today, anyone have any info?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 07:15
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Dow-Gold linear regression

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 07:15
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Dow 1900-1997

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 07:14
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Dow '97

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 07:14
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Dow '87

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 07:13
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Dow '29

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 07:13
Peter Reify>(Reify) ID#225157:
Yes, I have been thinking about what George has been posting. I find it amusing ( and somewhat disturbing ) that someone has been constantly posting about this emanate Gold Bull and the proclamation on August 8 1997 that the Gold Bull has arrived. To now post that he is holding little Gold Stocks and is hoping for Gold to get whacked some more.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 07:12
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
More charts '87 -'97

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 06:59
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
Big Beaver--great comments, mate. Also love your handle. I always thought that word had another connotation in Yankyland. Hope you can SEE the golden jackpot, mate, because everything you stated about the reasons gold should be higher is true!! Trouble is -- this is not a reasonable market!! I am accumulatin' like hell -- just look at the charts-- it's accumulatin' time. We may miss out by 10% or so but what is that compared to the upside possibilities It's the economy, Stupid!!-- didn't someone of repute ( ill? ) say that?

PS-- mate, the Aussies also have a nickname for Yanks--SEPTICS. ( Yank--septic tank ) . Great poets, Aussies!! ( Nick@Aussie's father is a notable exception ) .

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 06:56
Peter Nick>(Nick) ID#225157:
Great Charts Nick.
Thanks

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 06:46
Mike Sheller heard it thru the grapevine>(heard it thru the grapevine) ID#347447:
AURATOR: Perhaps the way to stave off a charging heard is with a speach.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 06:45
Mike Sheller 'morning mates>('morning mates) ID#347447:
GOPHER: While I share your repugnance at the drafts of cyber riffraff that occasionally blow through this site, I question the idea of allowing only valid authorities ( I am paraphrasing you as to intent, so forgive please ) to post. I'm not saying I've contributed anything meaningful here, but I don't think a damned astrologer would have passed muster under those conditions. Yet I've made some nice imaginary friends, and I've enjoyed the opportunity to offer my opinion and observations now and then. Who is qualified to speak at Kitco? I say anyone. Let them speak FIRST, before we, or Bart, decide what to do with them. The beauty of this site is that a shade-tree astrologer, and an anonymous another can appear from nowhere and offer a fresh perspective. Badge? I don't need no stinkin' badge. And neither should you. But I stand with your concern about preserving at least a modicum of this site's brilliant essence and value.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 06:43
Lurker For what it's worth.....>(For what it's worth.....) ID#319214:
Big Beaver: Don't know about you, but as a Navy sailor I visited Down Under many times. The women really liked Americans. They view us as kind to them and hard working with ambitions. This made the Ausie men very jealous and vindictive to Americans. A case of insecurity for their lack of ingenuity. Many of their women desperately wanted to marry Americans because the Ausies tended to be kickbacks and didn't treat their women well like Americans do. I also noticed that Australians were especially a racist lot, especially against Asians.

Sorry if this offends anyone, but this was the experience of many a sailor in your country. As far as the remark about Asians; I have repeatedly heard on this site from this same group of Down Unders their reference to Japanase as Japs, a derogatory used in World War II.

Although not of Japanese decent, I felt obligated to point this out in case they have not been taught proper manners or haven't developed an awareness of what it feels like to be ridiculed.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 06:39
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
Making money on gold shares is soooooo easy, I can't understand why everyone isn't doing it. Look at Nick@Aussie's charts of 6:20. Is gold at the TOP or BOTTOM of the chart? The rules are very simple. BUY at the bottom and SELL at the top!! We are AT or danged NEAR the BOTTOM, folks.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 06:30
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Big Furry Beaver
Both barrels primed and loaded.
One pointing down.
The other up.


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 06:22
BIG Beaver Beaver's Den>(Beaver's Den) ID#262358:

Well, guess Nick@Aussie didn't catch my drift. Perhaps he is a bit too serious. Is that true Nick my man?

Spose he's ignoramousing me. Anyhoo, some more thoughts on gold!

The media has continued to embrace the theme that gold
has no future because central banks are feeding their gold reserves into the market. And they are quick to point out that the central banks of industrialized countries hold enough tons of the shiny yellow stuff to satisfy the current worldwide demand for the next seven years.

It seems that Australia's central bank delivered a knockout punch to the last gold bulls left standing. By selling two-thirds of their national gold holdings, they reinforced the gold community's worst fear. ( That ) central banks are increasingly more interested in holding reserve assets, which generate income. The size of the sale was relatively small, just five million ounces -- but the
psychological impact was huge.

Adjusted for inflation, gold is now priced well below
the 1982 low of $295. Most gold mines are losing money, mine development is being deferred, and the list of mine closures is growing rapidly. This last point is worth expanding on. There are practical limits to how low gold can be sustainably pushed. A recent study ( World Gold Council ) indicated that 57% of the world's gold mines are unprofitable with gold at $325. Therefore, if gold continues to trade below that level, the industry will simply contract and exacerbate the existing deficit in primary supply.

What about investor sentiment? Statistics show that large speculative short positions outweigh speculative longs by as much as an eleven to one ratio. This is the highest ratio for the past decade. Speculators are the most bearish even as gold's risk-to-reward ratio is the most attractive it has been in years.

In summary, gold has been pushed well below equilibrium levels by aggressive short selling in response to modest central bank sales. It is not unreasonable to expect that these depressed levels can be maintained through the seasonal slow summer demand period, particularly if another
central bank is currently dumping some gold as has been discussed on this site. But the resumption of normal demand levels or the drying up of additional central bank sales will put tremendous
pressure on speculative short positions to cover.

BIG Beaver continues to recommend patient accumulation of
gold and gold mining shares during this period of extreme pessimism.

BTW, us Yanks became accostomed to calling you guys down under, Urinals, because it seems you spend most your time in pubs downing suds and draining your lizards. Just a joke mate!


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 06:20
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
testing

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 06:16
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
G'day TED--when you get here. Watched the baseball today. Didn't know who to root for ( gotta be careful if you say that down under--might get more than you bargained for ) . So I watched the coaches. When the Indians coach put in his BEST relief pitcher in the bottom of the ninth with a 6-1 lead-- I decided that Cleveland was gonna win the series. Just like buyin' shares--DON'T take ANYTHING for granTED!!!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 05:51
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
HK gold ends down on producer sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/20/z0000_4.html

London Exchange enters new share dealing era
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/20/z0000_2.html

Japan-U.S. ties tense but 1995 rerun seen unlikely
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/20/y0003_y00_2.html

Japan trade surplus rises in Sept, below forecast
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/20/y0003_y00_1.html


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 05:47
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Hi Leland: Just as I was reading your post there was a broker on CNBC saying the world situation looked good! Go Figure.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 05:41
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
You forgot my favorites LHG NDY Nick - shame on you.

England nervous down 60 early trading.
EBN has Royal Flush - your call
http://www.ebn.co.uk/Markets/Stocks/

Point & Figure theory for the T/A's
http://www.dorseywright.com/abtpf.html

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 05:39
Donald @WhatGreenspanIsThinking>(@WhatGreenspanIsThinking) ID#26793:
http://www.latimes.com:80/CNS_DAYS/971019/t000091414.html

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 05:27
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net) ID#316193:
DONALD -- For how bad in Asia this morning:

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Hang Seng ( 3:55 A.M. ) , down 630.13, 4.63%, at 12,970.88

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 05:25
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
Nick@Oz-- we're not supposed to tout shares on this chat site so I'm not gonna tell you to buy Acacia Resources ( AAA ) or Ross Mining ( RSM ) on any pullbacks ( Just because you would double your money in the next couple of years ) . So, sorry mate I can't give you any hot tips!! PS--I'm gonna mark this post and quote it to you a year from now!!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 05:17
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Nick@C thought of you today when MIM was up 5c.
You pick them well.

This guys full of sound advice.
http://nypostonline.com/business/543.htm

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971019/business/stories/japan_4.html


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 05:07
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
Nick@OZ--pretty dull out there today mate. Banks rebounding so I put in some more puts. Glad I bought the MIM calls - Ernest Henry looks like a real goer. Asian meltdown continues--think the Yanks'll come to their senses yet, or just go back and read their fairy tales Agree with Aurator about the spin doctors on TV-- the way they were poo pooing the last crash and tellin' us how great things are now. So damned convincing I wanted to buy US tech stocks -- Dow 10 000, mate. Ya think we can get bookings on that cruise ship for the big party

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 05:06
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Nick@C those bargains could get cheaper yet if no-one wants shares period. Hope not.

LOOKING BACK ATTHE CRASH OF '87 COULD IT HAPPEN AGAIN?
http://nypostonline.com/business/532.htm

Dow valued at $11 trillion now
$4 trillion in 87
30 % correction = 3.3 trillion in USA alone!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 05:06
BIG Beaver Beaver's Den>(Beaver's Den) ID#262358:

Nick my man - As we say in America in my neck of the woods, you've got to grab the monster by his big cahones and don't let go. You catch my drift?

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 05:04
aurator it's springtime in the rockies, the snow is rainig fast..>(it's springtime in the rockies, the snow is rainig fast..) ID#255285:
Nick, I'm all for girding loins, but, I get worried holding equiteiiies mate. I mean. the heard, when it stampedes, cares little for creak nor for bush, if ya know what i mean.

I think that paper currency is, as voltaire said, worth the paper it is printed on.

Oh, if I had but the sobriety or the memory to post here on kitco the details of Goldcorp Ltd. we'll hold your gold, here, take our certificate,

let's get physical ! I can dig.


darnt daylight saving upsets both cows and peops..

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 04:54
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
FOR MONDAY, OCTOBER 20, 1997
http://www.programtrading.com/buysell.htm


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 04:53
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Asian Stocks Reel as Governments Move to Shore Up Markets

Asian stocks reeled, as regional governments fumbled attempts to shore up confidence in their
weakening economies. Hong Kong and Taiwan shares led the declines. The rout followed a slump
in U.S. stocks and bonds on Friday. The decline, coming on the eve of the 10th anniversary of the
1987 crash, underlined concern that rising interest rates and a shakier corporate profit outlook are
dimming prospects for world equity markets. Stocks also tumbled in Seoul, Kuala Lumpur, Manila,
Bangkok, Singapore and Jakarta. Hong Kong shares could be the hardest by hit rising U.S. interest
rates because the territory's currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar. The benchmark Hang Seng
Index tumbled 4 percent to a seven-week low, led by bank and property stocks such as HSBC
Holdings Plc and Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 04:43
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
G'day Nick ( @Aussie ) and Aur@precious. Looks like the Antipodeans rule!!!

Nick-- I posted the Perth Mint info. Call Gordon Smith ( bullion purchasing officer ) on 08 9421 7420 and he will fax you a heap of info on buy/sell prices etc. for the precious in all shapes, sizes and forms. They add 5% but buy back at spot -- inconsequential IMHO.

Everone seems very negative on gold/shares etc. right now ( including resident gurus ) . That is my contrarian signal and I am now accumulating at prices that will seem ridiculous ( hopefully in the right direction ) in a couple of years. IF we have one more spike down I shall be in there lock, stock and barrel of precious!! Some Aussie gold shares are selling for less than even an extremely pessimistic valuation. Time to gird your loins folks and get stuck into it!!


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 04:40
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Hang Seng down 630 -4.63%
Taiwan -3.96%
Sth Korea -3.26%
Malaysia -3.06%
Thailand -2.66%
Indonesia -1.78%
Singapore -1.67%
Japan -1.05%

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 04:33
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Be still
So Lao Tse advised
Silence the breath
Still the tumult of the intrusive mind
Be still
And let the Golden Lotus
Unfold in heavenly beauty

Only be still
Commanded the Zen Master
And the unuttered may be heard
The mind illumined with
The unspoken word

Be still
Advised Gurdijeff
And let the work unfold
Effort destroys the work
Govern the unconscious flow
And Spirit will instruct without words
The seeker on the way

Be still
Said the carpenter
In the quiet mind speak with the Father in secret

Be still
The lord Buddha said
Put all desire away
Only be still
And enter into unity with him

Be still
The lord Vishnu said
Be still
Calm the mind
Master thought
And so escape the wheel

Be still
Counselled Mahomet
Be still
And he will reward thee with peace


The Masters teach us thus
To be still

The vision is seen only in deep quiet
The gift granted to the still spirit
The treasure is nurtured in the soundless centre

It is a great vanity to seek it beyond the self.

Southport 1988


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 04:30
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
DJ
Thanks for the learning curve.
Which version of Excel do you have. I'm using offices 97, a very good package. Some of those charts I did were done in Word and some in Excel. I think that the ones done in Word were the ones that stuffed up.
These programs have the ability to save the file as a html file.
The 97 versions of these programs have many improvements over 95 versions.
That first html file I created was from an excel file with 5 charts on it. All I had to do was save as html and press a few buttons - very simple.
I would recomend the upgrade.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 04:24
Nick The trader@Canberra>(The trader@Canberra) ID#386245:
G'day all. Have just reviewed the days postings. They range from erudite to asinine. I shall comment on the former and hope the latter have crawled back into their holes.

ANOTHER says The battle is between CB's trying to keep gold in the 300's and the others buying it up. In effect the governments are selling gold in an effort to KEEP IT being used as REAL MONEY in oil deals! Some people know this , that is why they arn't trading it..they are buying it.

The only reason I can think of for a nation to want to cheapen an asset they have lots of ( gold ) is to protect the price of something far more important to them ( oil ) . Otherwise it makes no sense. There may be something to ANOTHER'S assertions that gold is being used to contain the price of oil and therefore the status quo. IMHO the imbalance of any contained market will only cause an even bigger correction once the breaking point is reached. As an analogy consider the stresses that build up on a major fault ( such as San Andreas ) before an earthquake. The greater the movement of the two plates without relief in the form of an earthquake-- the greater the eventual earthquake. We are now under a considerable degree of stress in the markets--we have been too long without much more than minor tremors. The big quake is getting nearer.


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 04:21
aurator and the strangest of all currency must be the Yap stone money, why, ....>(and the strangest of all currency must be the Yap stone money, why, ....) ID#257148:
Life begins at 0400

David Thanks for your 17:02. An important part of the record, *complacency*.

Nick@Aussie thanks to & your pa. uplifting.

All
Unbelievably I woke up *yesterday*, Monday morning, to one Ri%^&&d O&*%$^%^, ( name witheld on legal advice ) of Merril Lynch pontificating ( hey, you still alive, popeman? - Good to see ) along the lines, ----

**Crashes only happen every 60 years or so, they only catch you once in a generation, and like, well, I dont remember the 1929 crash, or the thirties. cos I wasnt born. I remember the 1987 crash so there wont be another one during my life.**

BUY THE DIPS - it works everytime!!!


Now if only all handles rhymed...


oh well



gold, gold, real gold
real, royal, real gold

i dont think i should sleep tonite

cos owls are ahooting, something about

Japan, a convocation...

a gathering of nations

a*dummy is sold *
( thats rugby talk )

the emu is a dodo

the real threat is still the W Pacific


that contains how many billionaires?

it is, i am afraid, later than we think.


aurator

planting tomatoes and watching venus


my precious

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 03:12
King of the Gulag @givingUtheShaft.com>(@givingUtheShaft.com) ID#195344:
The King is Back!
I see Ted the commie Bretoner is still trying to find a life.
Where are all the starry eyed weenies, waiting for ufo's?
TVX......La Christina

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 03:09
King of the Gulag @givingUtheShaft.com>(@givingUtheShaft.com) ID#195344:
The King is Back!
I see Ted the commie Bretoner is still trying to find a life.
Where are all the starry eyed weenies, waiting for ufo's?
TVX......La Christina

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 03:07
aurator in the soup>(in the soup) ID#257148:
Slow loading, even for an antipodean....next life ....

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 01:34
Reify @Don't know why>(@Don't know why) ID#396137:
COMMENTS!!
1 ) Date: Sun Oct 19 1997 21:34
Peter ( GEORGE S COLE your 16:01 post ) ID#225157:
Soooo George
Peter- Just what do you hope to accomplish with your negative comments,
about one of our more knowledgable, and wiser, posters?
Are you a perfect bottom picker? Do you have a track record for us all
to examine?
Have you heard of averaging down and up?
I believe if you think about some of what GSC has been saying, you
wouldn't be posting such comments.

Date: Sun Oct 19 1997 22:52
Dr. Hepcat ( @Gold ) ID#216238:
You people are really crazy why do you attack my cogent views. To hell with Gsc and Peutz
great analysts but their predictions are off base. ----
Hey smart guy ( don't want to use some of my better army day vocabulary,
which might be more descriptive ) . Let's just say you predictions are right on the money and gold does go to new lows, and The averages to new highs, near term---- SO WHAT? What does make you?
Make your predictions, as many here have, and leave it at that. You may be right and you may be wrong, let the others and time decide.
Stop being so obnoxious, and ruin a perfectly interesting discussion
group with you immature rantings.

Don't know why I get myself involved.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 01:30
ACW Ouch!!!!>(Ouch!!!!) ID#253302:
Gold: Turkish court halts mining venture after
protests

MONDAY OCTOBER 20 1997

By John Barham in Ankara

A Turkish court has ordered the country's first gold mine to halt operations just before it was due to begin production. A court in the western city of Izmir cancelled the operating licence of Eurogold, a French-Australian-Canadian joint venture, just as it was about to start production, eight years after the company was set up.

Local villagers, supported by politicians and environmentalists have battled for years to close the mine down, arguing that it would pollute surrounding farmland and hurt the region's tourist industry. The mine lies 7 miles from the ancient Greek city of Pergamon, now known as Bergama.

Although Eurogold completed an arduous approvals process in 1994 and
independent mining specialists confirm that its cyanide leaching method to separate gold, a process used around the world, was completely safe, it failed to win over public opinion suspicious of foreigners and big business.

Villagers occupied the open pit mine, held unofficial local referendums
condemning the project and in September a bomb exploded harmlessly outside Eurogold's offices. Jack Testard, Eurogold's general manager, offered to run the mine for two months under the supervision of scientists to ease the villagers' fears.

However, the court stated that the cyanide-leaching method was not in line with public benefit. It decided unanimously to cancel the process subject to this case.

Mr Testard said he had received no official confirmation of the ruling. It is still not clear whether the ruling was final. About 700 villagers brought the case against the environment ministry's approval for the project.

Eurogold is a $46m joint venture between Canada's Inmet Mining and La
Source, partly owned by the privatised French geological survey and Australia's Normandy Mining. Eurogold planned to produce about 3 tonnes of gold and 3 tonnes of silver a year. The mine has estimated reserves of 1.38m tonnes at 11.7g per tonne with an identified mineral resource of 2.98m tonnes at 9g per tonne, totalling 860,000 ounces.

Turkey has not produced any gold in recent history, but is believed to have a number of promising sites. Other foreign investors are believed to have been monitoring the Eurogold case before deciding whether to set up projects in Turkey. Analysts believe if Eurogold had received a positive ruling, Turkey could have had five gold mines producing between 12 tonnes and 15 tonnes a year between them within five years.


London Financial Times

http://www.ft.com






Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 01:16
A.Goose @pondCentral>(@pondCentral) ID#20135:
Golden Cheesehead:

Your right it is once again looking gruesome. The recent bond turn around was ( IMHO ) most likely due to asians bringing sorely needed money home. The Bond market got the CPI they wanted and all the positive comments the could ever hope for, BUT if the tigers need their money they are going to SELL OUR BONDS. We might look to another tough day in the bond pits and possibly an unpleasant day for the stock market. Gold and Gold stocks quite possibly will once again hold their own.

In a few hours we will get to see how this day plays out. Soon if the stock market can not bear up under the pressure then it will surely BEAR DOWN. Since Bonds are fairly troublesome, that leaves the pm's and their stocks to attract the loose money.

Hang Seng 12:30 at 13086.65 -514.36 -3.78%

Nikkei 225 1:11AM 17371.33 -107.09 -0.61%

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 01:16
LURKER LGB-DENSE AS A BLACK WALNUT>(LGB-DENSE AS A BLACK WALNUT) ID#319214:

LGB: You still don't get it

We try to IGNORE YOU but obviously it hasn't worked, yet!

You see, we feel it is a crying SHAME that you ever came back from Tahoe!!!!!!!!!!!!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 01:00
toughguy @camp david>(@camp david) ID#364121:
Just heard the comment that during the crash of 1987 the rate on
government securities was at 9 or 10 % and stocks could not compete.
During the 1929 crash and bear market which did not bottom out
until 1933. During that period the actual rate of return on treasury bills
was a neagative 1/2% because people viewed stock as worthless
paper. I feel the paper is worth the same today. Executives are reaping
the benefits of high prices and are selling at a torrid pace.

Greenspan has been growing money at an 8% clip because its
trendy to have all these new business come to the market because
we are now global. Soon the other countries beside Japan are going
to lock us out of their markets. They know how to harvest corn, develop
software and virtually all their needs necessary to survive without the
U.S. If you been to europe youve seen most of the food products with
foreign labels.Ireland for example produces 70% of the software consumed in Europe and have been retained by US companies to help
solve a lot of their problems. Playing king of the mountain has its downside.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 00:56
toughguy @camp david>(@camp david) ID#364121:
Just heard the comment that during the crash of 1987 the rate on
government securities was at 9 or 10 % and stocks could not compete.
During the 1929 crash and bear market which did not bottom out
until 1933. During that period the actual rate of return on treasury bills
was a neagative 1/2% because people viewed stock as worthless
paper. I feel the paper is worth the same today. Executives are reaping
the benefits of high prices and are selling at a torrid pace.

Greenspan has been growing money at an 8% clip because its
trendy to have all these new business come to the market because
we are now global. Soon the other countries beside Japan are going
to lock us out of their markets. They know how to harvest corn, develop
software and virtually all their needs necessary to survive without the
U.S. If you been to europe youve seen most of the food products with
foreign labels.Ireland for example produces 70% of the software consumed in Europe and have been retained by US companies to help
solve a lot of their problems. Playing king of the mountain has its downside.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 00:47
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD @ASIAN MIRACLE MELTDOWN>(@ASIAN MIRACLE MELTDOWN) ID#431263:
Once again Asia getting clobbered with margin calls! Heng Seng down 469 ( 3.45% ) . What will happen when she breaks through 13,000? Malaysia down 2.29%! Taiwan down 3.96%! S. Korea down 2.69%! Thailand down 2.5%! The Asian deflationary sunami is sending shockwaves around the globe! Corporate earnings in Asia are drying up with the El Nino drought! Japanese banks are feeling the squeeze! Hong Kong is next! Then Latin America and the US! This is what will drive the great bear market of '98-'99 to culminate with the Y2K capitulation bottom! Currency chaos will finally boost gold to undreamed of heights as capitulating paper investors flee to the only safe haven that's really safe--GOLD! The rising gold price will turn out to be the LEAST of AG's worries as angry baby boomers flood the streets of Washington in fear and protest over the end to easy profits and the loss of cars, homes and jobs!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 00:46
Gopher Minnesota>(Minnesota) ID#430231:
Bart: I've been lurking heree for the past year, and like hordes of others, I've learned much from the high quality of debate found here. That quality is the result of the level of experience of the posters who have been regulars here. Recently, the site has been discovered by individuals who have no experience to contribute, and have swamped the site with useless chatter designed to irritate and alienate both regular lurkers and the most enlightening posters.

The name of the site, and the element that makes this site interesting, is that it is for investors and market analysts. Watching these experienced and qualified individuals trade thoughts and debate the future is fascinating. Watching the adolescent spammers flood the site with insolent chatter is irritating. I suggest you start cultivating a meaningful discussion here, by screening posters for qualifications that make them unique, and then providing a password to those who qualify, in your judgement. The editors, the traders, the brokers, the geologist, all warrant a pass here;People like myself do not --- but we will check in nightly to pour over the daily exchange of ideas, and thank you for an invaluable service.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 00:35
Why John>(Why John) ID#2082:
John,

I have just checked in and your 'signature' is all over kitco. Why must you do this? It is not nice and you should stop. Please stop and be nice.

Pleeeeeeeze?

away...to scratch my head at the nonsense


and LGB...why must you be such a prick can't you be nice either

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 00:32
The Major @The Observatory>(@The Observatory) ID#372425:
hic!Don zo if dish ash ben poshded yed.Peter Lynching the mob.....hic~...
http://www.worth.com/articles/Z9711E01.html

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 00:21
DJ Charting>(Charting) ID#215208:
JTF - I use Excel. Not great for doing semi-log plots, because I can't seem to control the annotation on the log axis or the minor gridlines. But it is great for ripping apart text data into columns, and pulling string segments out of a string, as was needed to chart Nick's data.

When I get some time, I'd like to find a better graphing package more appropriate for following investment vehicles. Suggestions are welcome.


Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 00:10
$ilverbug get a life...>(get a life...) ID#151412:
It's a shame to see that the 12 year olds have gotten hold of their dads' Kitco bookmarks and are posting garbage. Why don't they go find The Beavis and Butthead homepage and leave this group for adults!

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 00:10
Louis Rue@eiser.com>(Rue@eiser.com) ID#280165:
What doesn't go up will go down. Sure looks
bad with gold and gold stocks dropping. A Monday
down could be the start of a big drop. Glad I wrote
all those XAU calls, like taking candy from a baby.

Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 00:00
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
Larryn: Re- your post at 21:25. Glad to see some sanity in this posting turbulence tonight. Also glad to see you are not offended by all the posts. I have only been following gold for about 3 years, so you are way ahead of me. Have you considered the last time something happened like this may have been 1925-1927? This may be different from your experience. I have a question: in your past experience -- when did gold and the dollar correlate ( inversely ) this closely -- say for the past 1 1/2 years? Furthermore- gold in non-dollar denominated currencies is behaving differently - eg gold is rising in the Swiss Franc. Regardless of what Another says, I think I have learned that it is important to follow gold/dollar/oil price behavior carefully. I have been doing this,but probably not as carefully as I will now!

Return to Home Page

Site design & maintenance by Nick Laird
All pages on this website are ©1998-2017 ShareLynx Gold - All Rights Reserved