KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:57
JTF @Home ok - so I can't sleep!>(@Home ok - so I can't sleep!) ID#252312:
RJ - Any comments? Gold up now, or later? Why would the Japanese buy gold now when the White Night AG might push it down some more?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:53
DJ Any futures traders around?>(Any futures traders around?) ID#215208:
I've been looking at an investment possibility but need a quick answer before I waste any more time on it. In trading futures, if the commodity made a 5% move in 2-months, would you make any money, after all spreads, commissions, or whatever, were factored in? What % on your investment? Would it make a difference if you were short or long, as long as the move was in the right direction?

Would appreciate someone giving me rough numbers. I've not dabbled in futures to-date.


Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:52
RJ ..... Yawn .....>(..... Yawn .....) ID#411259:

Futureman
If you're reading next week's Wall Street Journal, you news is only a week or two old. Almost anything you read in the WSJ is old and moldy. Everybody knew it first.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:49
Nick @Avid>(@Avid) ID#386276:
For the last week the Inst. anMF Mgrs have used the first hour to set the tone for the market, the first hour the tick is high 500+ and there is a flood of market buy orders, This manipulation and the SEC ( If they would wake up ) would like to know who is doing it, this has been going on for a long time, Just watch the first and last hour. The first hour is to set the tone, and the last hour is used to push their stocks up,

No, its all set up in their computer program, after all there are only 70 stocks to work on, 50 stocks make up 50% of the S&P, you add 20 key stocks and you have all the DOW and about 60% of S&P, Todays total trades were only worth about 23 billion, chicken feed when you consider some controll hundreds of billions, They have every reason to do this and they are not going to stop any time soon, unliss someone calls their hand, and everyone wants the market to go up, who cares about value,this is a money game and value . the economy. greengoat and interest rates are only a side issue.


http://www.cftc.gov/cftc/
We all know those commercial bond traders are always wrong, right, bulls? As of Friday they have an extreme short position of -96,810 contracts....up from -68,859 contracts two weeks ago

now a fellow in Japan can't buy Japanese equities cause dey's goin south....can't buy Japanese bonds cause the vice finance minister said they'd be crazy to buy Japanese bonds here.....can't sit in JY cause the currency is fallin like a rock....only one thing left to buy.....GOLD:


Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:49
Savage !!!!!!!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) ID#280222:
More Gold: ...that's too scary. DUNDEE: That Ian seem to be a bit o' wise man. BYRON: Did you find that story yet? Could you post it?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:49
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Tokyo Nikkei falls below 17,000 in late morning:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/13/z0009_70.html

Britain will meet EMU criteria, but entry in 1999 unlikely:
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/biz/101397/biz21_27590.html

Japanese regional bank to disband due to huge bad loans:
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/biz/101397/biz10_1833.html


Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:47
JTF @ZZZ>(@ZZZ) ID#252312:
Goodnight!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:45
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#252312:
When gold bottoms this time, it may be the opportunity we have been wating for! Or more precisely, the beginning of a series of opportunities! I learned that from a master in the field I work in ( not investing ) . When others see problems, look for the opportunities!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:45
Dundee @Nikkei Central>(@Nikkei Central) ID#216107:
Today's local paper had a front page article on the major financial problem caused by Japan's golf craze going south. The article made it sound very serious especially since this was a new and unexpected problem being laid on an already shakey Nikkei doorstep.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:43
Byron @ The Winner Is:>(@ The Winner Is:) ID#252132:
Savage: You are holding a winning hand. You got 4 two's!!!! and a checkmate two. : )

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:41
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#252312:
Savage: Thank you -- we all need clear heads in this chess game. I usually lost when I played chess if I got nervous.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:38
Savage !!!!!!!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) ID#280222:
Nick: ( you too 223 & JTF et al ) : You can only hope to win at chess if you can successfully anticipate your opponents moves. Japan breaking 17000 is a major move. AG requesting to address Congress is a major move. Is it a feint, or the real thing? What are some possible accompanying moves? How can we defend...or should we take the inititative ( in our portfolios ) with some aggressive action? In what manner? In what market? Puts ( stox ) or calls ( PMs ) , both, and how much, and what if we're wrong? Risk/Reward factors? ....checkmate.....

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:37
JTF @Home - beware a bear gold market!>(@Home - beware a bear gold market!) ID#252312:
Goodnight all: Hope all is well in the morning. If MoreGold is right about Japan, this could be our deflationary trigger. We must be prepared for our White Night to push gold down one more time to support the dollar, and discourage a gold rally, which when I was thinking more calmly I said already a few days ago.
Our White Night will not permit a gold rally during the crisis period, and probably not till 1998.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:32
Dundee @Nikkei Central>(@Nikkei Central) ID#216107:
January 29th Ian McAvity noted ... It's ( the Nikkei ) has been trying to hold the 17k level, while the 126k and 14.4k below that are the obvious downside target levels. Below the 1992 lows at 14,309, all bets are off and the impact could be global if a risk of meltdown becomes apparent. ...

In april Ian thought ... Those latest bottoms at 17,486 and 17,304 become new potential trigger points for risk to the equity markets far beyond Japan. ...

Ian wan't very positive on the Hang Seng either.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:29
MoreGold @Japanese Banks>(@Japanese Banks) ID#348286:
JTF: I beleive that the most of the banks in japan are in big trouble, but
they will be bailed out. Just like the Aussi CB Gold sale, we will only find out later rather than sooner. Seems this is the dictate of the new world order, must not panic the markets at any cost ( and maybee drive up the price of Gold ) .
Time to cut out till tomorrow... : - ) )

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:27
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#252312:
I think Panda really went to get some zzz's that time. How about the White Night? What will he do if Japan starts selling US treasuries in a big way as Panda says? Can the LBMA sell gold fast enough to entice new treasury purchases? Or will the Japanese start buying gold? The Japanese think long term, so they might just wait for our White Night to push gold down one more time.
Is gold controlled now by the market, or is it still under CB control?
Lots of wild cards tonight! Not much we can do tonight, until we see more of the deck tomorrow.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:24
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library) ID#252132:
Saw story on AVID Chat.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:23
Byron @ Breaking Support?>(@ Breaking Support?) ID#252132:
Understand Yahoo has a story on Japan breaking 17,000. But me don't have URL : (

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:15
panda @Final>(@Final) ID#30116:
JTF -- A Japanese market debacle will 'upset' the U.S. marts if they sell our BONDZi. Then they could do something really stupid, like buy gold. Oh, but Hashimoto said they wouldn't do that after saying that he would. Makes sense to me.

Really gone...............

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:14
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#252312:
Panda is right about no stock market crash -- everyone expects it on the 10th anniversary of the 87crash -- so it won't happen! Crashes occur when ( almost ) noone expects them. But we could have a Bear if the baby boomers on prozac let up.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:11
Savage !!!!!!!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) ID#280222:
REIFY: What do you think of Nikkei possibly breaking 17000? ...potential collateral damage ...responses? ...ANYONE?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:11
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#252312:
223 ( Tulip farm ) You are right -- we are stirring ourselves up. A 1% drop in the Nikkei is not that much, but it does mean we have hit a critical resistance point. We do need to be on our toes if we are long on anything - even gold stocks.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:08
panda @ZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzz>(@ZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzz) ID#30116:
Savage -- This should assure you even more. Remember the Barron's story on Prozac and Wall Street? Their favorite... So, have a drink, plunk down that check, and think of how you, and everyone else, will be retiring RICH! :- ) )

Off to see the wonderful wizard of sleep tonight! Good night all. And remember, no stock crashes are allowed on this anniversary! Honest! It's like this; Gravity, it's not just a good idea! IT'S the LAW! :- ) )

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:07
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#252312:
More Gold -- OhOh, a second tier Japanese bank!
Donald, all -- Any big Japanes banks? Is this it?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:06
223 The Tulip Farm>(The Tulip Farm) ID#263259:
Mob psychology anyone? I've no relationship with the bookseller!! http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0471133124/7679-0363424-061620

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:03
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#252312:
Panda -- I suspect that even a Japanese market crash will not disturb the American and European markets that much, unless some key international banks in Japan fail. Certainly does raise some concern on my part regarding the money I have left in the US market -- no I don't have portfolio insurance -- tried that some years ago by buying SnP puts, and just lost the money -- got some grief from the wiser better half too!

My take on all this is if Japan is really folding, is that we have a little time left to get out -- gold stocks included.
I wonder -- will the CRY0 still be helpful for following gold stocks? When it tanks, gold stocks generally go too! Perhaps our White night won't wait until Oct 28 to make his announcement!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:01
Dundee @watching the Nikkei>(@watching the Nikkei) ID#216107:
JTF:
No 17000 is not the low after the 1990 slide. The Nikkei bottomed at 14309 in 92 bounce and came back down to 14485 in 95. The 17000 level has developed as a support level over past 5 years.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 23:00
MoreGold @Tokyo update>(@Tokyo update) ID#348286:




TOKYO STOCKS FALL
( 14-Oct-1997 )


TOKYO STOCKS FALL Tokyo stocks fall further, after closing at 2 year lows yesterday. The Nikkei Average is down about 230 points, or more than 1% in mid-morning trade. A decline in stock index futures triggered the fall. A proposal from the Finance Minister, to reduce the land value tax, perked up the market in early trade today, but the impact was short lived. The banking sector is leading the losers, especially after news of financial trouble at second-tier stock Kyoto Bank

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:54
Savage !!!!!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!!!!) ID#280222:
panda: somehow, that didn't assure me.... JTF is right, look out the beach!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:51
6pak The Economy is on fire @ Canada by Paul Martin (Look out,the sky is falling!)>(The Economy is on fire @ Canada by Paul Martin (Look out,the sky is falling!)) ID#335190:
October 13, 1997
Balanced budgets are music to finance ministers

OTTAWA ( CP ) - After years of painful cuts and the tight-fisted economic
policies of Paul Martin, the finance minister will tell Canadians in a fiscal update Wednesday the books are in good shape and it's time to consider uncorking the federal piggy bank.
Martin will say the roaring economy has generated better than expected
tax revenues. Employment insurance premiums paid to Ottawa have skyrocketed while payouts from the bloated EI account have dropped.

Interest rates are at 30-year lows, consumers are spending and trade is up.The economy is on fire.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/NationalTicker/CANOE-wire.Martin-Outlook.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:49
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
MIke Sheller: What's mc2? Oh, I got it! I'm slow tonight!! Thanks for the reference -- yes spiritual does sound more apropriate. Last night I read something about religion in his writings that really rings true -- he basically said that if you take all of the later interpretation of Jesus' original statements out of Christianity, and the Prophets out of the Jewish religion, you get something that would benefit all mankind. That is very similar to what I believe: that if you take what is common to all religions, you come closest to the truth about God, since human interpretation through the years has eventually altered the essence of virtually all religions.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:48
panda @>(@) ID#30116:
Earl -- Are you lurking around here?

TED -- That includes you too!

What this place needs is a twenty Dollar rally in the old yeller! That should do the trick nicely.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:44
panda @>(@) ID#30116:
JTF -- Don't worry, be happy! Go long, buy puts for 'insurance' and have a great day! :- ) )

The bulls have been right for a long time. The question is, when will the gold bugs be right? It seems that the only way we will win at this game is when the general public starts buying 'stuff', and at a serious clip to boot. In the meantime, most 'investors' don't give a damn about derivatives, muchless know what they are. Such is the world.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:40
Wilson Executive Order W-163-97>(Executive Order W-163-97) ID#243295:

California ordered to take y2k seriously. http://www.year2000.ca.gov/Standards/ExecOrderW-163-97.asp

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:39
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Sounds like another game?

Iran's naval and air forces staged a Show of Strength in the Gulf Monday with fighter-bombers and helicopters flying over a parade of 120 ships engaged in military exercises.

U.S. aircraft carrier Nimitz, which passed through the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf on Sunday with its battle group of six warships

The six oil monarchies navies on the Arab side of the Gulf -- those of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates -- were engaged in wargames named Solidarity off the coast of Bahrain.

Except there are three players.
How many ship there in total?
Hot-headed and trigger-itchy?


Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:37
panda @Japan>(@Japan) ID#30116:
I don't know if someone posted this one or not, but Japan PM trying to 'stablize' stock prices.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/13/z0009_65.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:35
JTF @Home -- previous low for Nikkei>(@Home -- previous low for Nikkei) ID#57232:
Dundee: What was the all-time low for the Nikkei,after the 1990 crash?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:35
panda @>(@) ID#30116:
Savage -- Death and taxes. :- ) )

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:32
JTF @Home --Derivatives and Chess!>(@Home --Derivatives and Chess!) ID#57232:
Panda -- looks like you are way ahead of me! You already told everyone about the 1987 portfolio insurance: derivatives.

Nick ( @Aussie ) : What a great concept! Chess! When I was in graduate school only a mile from Einstein's former abode, I played chess with a Russian from Georgia SSR. Got the greatest compliment I can ever remember, though I lost: You are pretty good, for an American!

Greenspan is perfect as the white knight!
Who is the white king-new world order?,
and who is the black king? old European money?

I am not sure we are even on the board!
One last question: are we using the fifteen minute timer? How much time do we have? Seriously, I suspect that we have some time left -- and will get an early warning from the dollar drop and a gold rally. One can dream anyway!

Or will it be like one of RJ's surfers riding a Tsunami -- the greatest thrill ever for the gold bugs, but a little problem at the beach!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:31
Savage !!!!!!!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) ID#280222:
Query: What assurances do we have that Comex will survive a major market event ( ie gold rockets ) . I know that it is a zero sum game; but, what if it just isn't there when it's called? Wouldn't that be the final insult to us goldbugs! Quick! Somebody give me some assurances!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:24
Dundee @waitng for the train>(@waitng for the train) ID#216107:
Nikkei is having problems. 17000 looks in trouble, this will be felt. Next stop looks to be 14000. The Japanese will need to bring money home, look to the bond market tomorrow ( or soon there after ) , maybe we will see the impact.

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 10:02PM 17051.05 -153.65 -0.89%

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:23
panda @&&&&&&>(@&&&&&&) ID#30116:
Boy! My spelling is going downhill this evening!

quaters == quarters

incurr == incur

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:22
Lucky43 Lucky43@rocketmail.com>(Lucky43@rocketmail.com) ID#309239:
GLS GLOBAL ASSETS ( GLO,V )

Chosen as one of British Columbia's TOP PERFORMING COMPANIES for 1997 by Deloitte and
Touche and Business in Vancouver newspaper.

The exploration activity with GLO should build momentum during October on two separate fronts.

Hydra-Hercules Gold Project in Nevada

Since 1984 over $2 million US has been spent on exploration of this property from which
estimates have shown a gold resources of 170,000 to 213,000 ounces of gold and over 1.5 million
ounces of silver. The potential for a million ounce gold deposit is reported to be excellent.

This should be exciting. Two concurrent exploration programs should be cranking up this month.
First, GLO will be conducting a due diligence evaluation of the property which will include
reconnaissance sampling and mapping of the known mineralized zones. Based on positive
findings, a joint venture agreement will be signed with Adamas Resources by year end.

In the interim however, Adamas will continue its own exploration activities. There has been some
talk of exploring some of the undrilled targets of the property. A news release should be released
soon which should detail their plans more clearly.

Cable Mountain-Bolivia

Recent sampling from the quartz veins has shown gold values of over 10grams/ton with the
highest returning 24.6 grams/ton. More sampling of the 14 known quartz veins on the cliff face will
continue this fall in addition to soil sampling which will search for gold anomalies along the strike.

It should be noted that local miners have been taking gold from this area since pre-Colonial days
and are still working there today. GLS Global has a FREE video of their prospective properties
which is a real eye opener. See for yourself how the local miners can make $300 US a day using
the most simplistic mining methods!

Call Thor Gauti for more information 1-800-792-3834
Visit website and click on Portfolio at http://www.globalminerals.com

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:17
panda @>(@) ID#30116:
JTF -- See my 21:43

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:14
panda @Now, how did that happen>(@Now, how did that happen) ID#30116:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/13/lockc_y00_2.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:14
JTF @Home re: >(@Home re: ) ID#57232:
Donald: I have Robert Schwartz' book Reshaping the Equity Markets, Harper 1991 out, and spotted a reference that I think relates to your indexing question.
Apparently in 1987, portfolio insurance and index arbitrage was available to some investors. These were based on derivatives. What happened during the turmoil of the market crash was that the portfolio insurance did not work! Although Schwartz said that these problems would not happen again, my guess is that many of the current portfolio insurance schemes would fail again ( perhaps for different reasons ) if the market turmoil is strong enough. Perhaps this will job the memory of some experienced traders who remember. I have only been at this for three years, as an avocation.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:13
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Stolen from AVID

wow boy nikkei gettin pressed once again .....take a look at how good the market is in Japan......Japan's Stock Index Hits 10-Month Low on Economic Troubles By Jackie Kestenbaum Tokyo: Japan's benchmark index plunged to its lowest level in nearly 10 months amid pessimism over a stagnant economy, a wave of downward earnings revisions and government deadlock over what action to take. The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average fell 159.14 points, or 0.92 percent, to 17,217.78, its lowest since Jan. 28. Banks fell 3.4 percent as a group amid concern they would feel the brunt of the economic downturn. Sakura Bank Ltd., Sumitomo Bank Ltd., Daiwa Bank Ltd., Sanwa Bank Ltd. and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. all declined. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party will present its economic stimulus package next Monday and investors are skeptical the government will formulate any meaningful policies. ``Foreigners continue to be heavy sellers of Japan because of a weak economy and an impotent government,'' said Simon Hurst, manager of the equity dealing department at ING Baring Securities ( Japan ) Ltd. ``The flood of downward revisions is only starting.'' Published 13:04.


Note the last comment.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:12
panda @off topic>(@off topic) ID#30116:
Speaking of strange occurences, is this another 'cattle deal';
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/13/lockc_y00_2.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:11
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Carl, you forgot the bishop, it's only check?

My brother Craig Laird is an international chess master - I wish he were here to delve into the possible potential moves.

I think that there are many IM's at this site.
All looking at their positions.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:08
Senator Blutarsky @Senate Intelligence>(@Senate Intelligence) ID#288100:

I'm getting ready for Y2k!! I posted the following question at a y2k site: http://www.garynorth.com/forums/Thread.cfm?CFApp=12&Thread_ID=641&mc=1

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:07
panda @>(@) ID#30116:
Allen -- Most of those derivatives could be currency and/or interest rate related. There are some pretty 'strange' things out there that people buy on an institutional basis. Orange County, California was but one example. As for how much of this is stock related? The 'market' is worth what? About nine trillion Dollars, give or take? Remember, the contracts are based on the underlying securities. That is ( supposed to be ) the limiting factor.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:03
Byron @ TOCOM Gold and Silver Futures>(@ TOCOM Gold and Silver Futures) ID#252132:
Commentary regards the opening of the Tokyo Gold and Silver Futures can be found in the 5th story down at http://quote.yahoo.com

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 22:01
panda @>(@) ID#30116:
Ultimately, all confidence games are up when the 'mark' demands the real thing. That's the bottom line folks. If the general investor loses confidence in the market, they demand their monies back, by selling. If they want gold, then they buy paper gold, or, if they're scared enough, the heavy yellow stuff. Who knows? They may even want the heavy white metals too!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 21:59
Poorboys Canada>(Canada) ID#224149:
SCHOONHOVEN, Netherlands ( October 13, 1997 2:10 p.m. EDT ) - A Dutch alcoholic has gone to court on drunkenness and vagrancy charges for the 170th time, setting a new record, police said Monday.P.S.I hope the beer is not GoldenHappy Trails

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 21:56
Allen USA>(USA) ID#255190:

Panda - Does this relate to the $80 tln derivatives market that has muhroomed since 1987? Are these derivatives put/calls. Are they insurance? Are they crazy?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 21:55
Carl @home>(@home) ID#333131:
Nick, White sacrifices pawn and checkmates. Oh, wouldn't that hurt!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 21:54
panda @1987 fallout>(@1987 fallout) ID#30116:
The concept of circuit breakers was akin to the FDIC insurance at banks. The idea was intill some degree of 'faith' back into the markets again. No more, no less. Circuit breakers are a bad idea. Think of it. You own a financial instrument whose price is indeterminant because of the circuit breakers. This is supposed to 'calm' the markets?

The other aspect that changed, had to do with derivative securities. This is one of the main reasons that option contracts are same day settlement. If you wish to place a BET where you can lose all of the money that you wager... You must now put up the money up front. In 1987, you didn't have to do that. Still, the danger is with possible illiquidity. If there is a sudden spectacular move that catches the houses on the wrong side... AG had better open the banks teller window, fast and wide.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 21:49
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
We are watching the greatest game of chess ever played!!!
Gold -Value = white?
Paper - Equities = black?

The end game has begun?
Black has just lost its Queen - Sir James Goldsmith?
Who plays the white queen - Big Trader?
Which side will Soros play?

Geenspan says check to your king and has his finger on the clock?

CME opening future trading 1/2hr earlier puts the bishops in a stong position?
LBMA cannot win with no queen, the rooks are powerless?
All the pawns are useless?
Is Greenspan the White Knight in Shining Armour who will save the day?

PS. I am a white pawn!


Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 21:43
panda @>(@) ID#30116:
Donald and anyone else wondering about Indexing -- This is simply stock index options and futures. In other words the SPX or OEX or RUT. You can buy or sell option and futures contracts on the indexes. The contracts represent the underlying stocks in the indexes. In 1987, one of the main thoughts that received blame for the crash was the idea of 'portfolio insurance'. The concept is to hedge your portfolio with index options or futures, such that in a market down turn you would be 'protected'.

A simple example;

I own three stocks in the XAU index. Those stocks just happen to make up 75% of the index. My analysis of this fictional market tells me that a decline may be coming soon. So I hedge ( insure ) my portfolio by buying put options on the XAU or I sell futures contract on that index ( assuming they exist ) . If the market falls, my short position makes up for my losses in my long positions. That's the general idea.

The Problem;

The guy on the other side of the trade becomes 'illiquid' for whatever reason.

The result;

My 'insurance' didn't work and I am now begging for quaters in the street ( inflation, you know ) .

The reason for doing this? So I don't have to sell my positions out and incurr capital gains...

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 21:42
Ken Indonesia >(Indonesia ) ID#273100:

Fires worsening: http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/101397/world19_3853.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 21:40
Carl @home>(@home) ID#333131:
Japan - down to 17049

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 21:34
Highrise Controled Economics>(Controled Economics) ID#401237:
Pyramid: Yes just before the Fed meets. Unemployment will increase, cpi will drop and some commodity will drop to bring the CRB down

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 21:25
6pak Depression's wreckage @ New figures arose (When the workingman begins to think, Monopoly trembles)>(Depression's wreckage @ New figures arose (When the workingman begins to think, Monopoly trembles)) ID#335190:
Agricultural prices were down, wages were falling, but dividends were firm and everyone knew that endless expansion and ever greater prosperity were a permanent characteristic of the American way. To speak of possible panic or coming depression was unpatriotic. If there was any uneasiness it was ignored in the manner of the country's greatest banker, Jay Cooke, who patronizingly declared from his glided, rococa castle, Ogontz, outside of Philadelphia, I feel an unfailing confidence in the God in whom we put our trust. I do not believe He will desert us.

To the naked eye, however, the country seemed flourishing enough. Miners were digging coal and copper, iron manufacturers were planning to build huge steel mills, there was an ever-increased gold and silver flow from the Comstock Lode and great coke ovens were being operated in Pennsylvania's newly developed Connellsville area. The granaries of the nation were bulging with wheat and corn, factories were humming with activity---and then suddenly there was paralysis. The work of the nation stopped almost as abruptly, and nearly as completely, as if an evil spell had been placed upon it.

This life in death, which is a depression in an industrial society, was heralded by the closing on September 18, 1873, of the great banking house of Jay Cooke in Philadelphia.

The economic crisis of 1873, like those that were to follow it in cyclical succession, was due to the fact that private business enterprise, ever ready to increase its already swollen profits, overextended production with the result that there was an overproduction of machinery, iron, lumber, and other producers' goods and of wheat, cotton, textiles, woolens, and other basic commodities--all at the expense of the working people of the country. While employers kept workers' wages below even minimum living standards, they forced their laborers to increase production by working them excessively long hours and by introducing new speed-up techniques. More and more goods were produced at less and less cost with the result that profits went skyrocketing. Instead of more equitably distributing these in the form of higher wages and shorter hours, they took it for themselves, plowing part of it back into more machines and more plants in order to make more money.

The consequence of capital taking too much and the people who produced the wealth getting too little was an economic glut that spelled disaster.

Great armies of unemployed drifted over the country searching for work while newspapers ceaselessly fulminated against tramps maintaining that the hungry could find work if only they wished to. Half of those out of work could find it if they wanted it, the comfortable declared, but did not explain why the other half who wanted it, according to the calculation, could not find it either. In the main, press and clerics maintained it was not a breakdown in industry that was responsible for idleness but a breakdown in character, in the old American traits of making-out and making-do.

J.P. Morgan replacing Cooke as the nation's leading banker, while Henry C. Frick with the help of Andrew Mellon gobbled up the Connellsville coal region, and James J. Hill, Henry Villard, and Edward H. Harriman, profiting from the same general ruin, emerged as the new industrial titans, the possessors of railroads, land grants, and coal fields.

**Its good to fish in troubled waters,** Andrew Carnegie found the remark true of depressions. Carnegie sententiously declared, The man who has money during a panic is the wise and valuable citizen.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 21:06
Auric @ Home>(@ Home) ID#255151:

That's odd... Trying main page again-- http://www.lme.co.uk/main.htm

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 21:05
pyramid .>(.) ID#217268:
It seems to me that a stock market circuit breaker just postpones the inevitable at a lower price. I wouldn't expect sellers to recind their sell-orders. Buyers would wait for a bottoming plateau before buying on the dips. Circuit breakers DO, however, buy time for public relations damage control, giving the public appearance of letting cooler heads prevail.

It's difficult to discern truth from fiction with respect to government press releases. It seems that whenever a trend of realistic market/corporate data is negative, a positive government report comes along to buoy the markets. The timing is uncanny. Anyone else notice this behavior ?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 21:02
Auric @ Home>(@ Home) ID#255151:

Found the website for LME. Here is the URL
http://www.lme.co.uk/main.htm>http://www.lme.co.uk/main.htm Here is the
disclaimer page http://www.lme.co.uk/

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 20:58
Allen USA>(USA) ID#255190:
Donald, GSC - Re: DOW/gold ratio, a thought. Possibly the one weakness I've seen is that there is no factor for relating the over/under-priced condition of the DOW in this ratio. I suggest using a coeffecient of Current DOW P/E divided by Historical Average DOW P/E.

If current P/E sits at the average then it is a multiplier of 1.0 .

If ( as is the case now ) is approx 22/15 = 1.45 then the relative over pricing is factored into the relationship. DOW/GOLD of 24.5 now would really be 35.5 .I would suggest calling this coefficient the exuberance factor in respect to AG's naming.

So 1980 DOW @ 1000, P/E @ 6 & gold at 600 would yield a ( DOW*Exuberance ) /GOLD = 0.67 . Certainly a signal that Gold was to higher and the DOW to low.

A normal point of would be if the DOW were at P/E = 15 and the raw DOW/GOLD ratio were at its historical average
( ?12 ) .

In the current situation the DOW would theoreticly drop to about 5500 and gold rise to about 460. Considering that Oil is now at about 22, this would suggest gold at 440, which is pretty close to the above guess.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 20:56
v .>(.) ID#427153:
albert einstein, jacob h. schiff and R. cywiak expressed it well: IN ALL FAITHS AND AT THE TOP OF THE MOUNTAIN ALL PATHES UNITE....

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 20:55
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
45% INCREASE IN MILITARY SPENDING IN IRAN

Iran plans to increase its military expenditures by 45% over the next twelve months within the framework of a five year plan whose goal is to double the power of the Iranian army. Iran embarked on a massive program to buy ballistic weapons in order to turn into a missile-making power within two years. The implementation of the Iranian plan began in March, 1997, with the start of the new Iranian year. Iran has allocated $19.5 billion for defense activity - an increase of 45% compared to the current budget. The new military budget covers 600,000 regular and other armed forces established since the 1979 revolution. The bulk of the $3.2 billion arms import budget is earmarked for the purchase of missiles and missile technology, principally from China, North Korea and Russia. Iran's military industry has 100 companies engaged in the manufacture and assembly of various weapons. Iran's overall budget shows an increase of 34% as compared to the current budget. The bulk of Iran's $107.8 billion budget is covered by Iranian petroleum sales which will amount to $81 billion at $17.50 a barrel. - Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat - Internet
http://www.saltshakers.co.uk/isalert/970428.htm


Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 20:39
vronsky LBMA EXPOSÉ: PART 6 (October 13, 1997) A Collective-Mind Analysis by Red Baron>(LBMA EXPOSÉ: PART 6 (October 13, 1997) A Collective-Mind Analysis by Red Baron) ID#427357:
London Bullion Marketing Association is best described as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.” Daily gold trading NEARLY TWICE South Africa’s annual Gold Mine production:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron1013.html


Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 20:35
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Earlier today someone asked me about stock indexing and I was unable to respond. Here is a reference to it in this article about the 1987 crash. What kind of indexing does it relate to? Anyone know?

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/business/stories/stocks_30.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 20:29
Auric Back From The Future>(Back From The Future) ID#255151:

I set the Kitco forum to October 23, 1997, and am posting from there now. Guess what? Gold didn't get to 3-1-0. And Mr. Dow did not see 8300.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 20:28
Larryn long term rates>(long term rates) ID#32078:
Was it a coincident that, since US banks were closed today and there was very little action on the long term bonds, there was almost no change in the long term bond rate and almost no action in the gold stocks and funds. Gold slipped late but XAU didn't. I'm noticing a higher correlation between longer term gold prospects as measured by gold stock movements and long term interest rate prospects as measured by long term bond rates. Both reflect weakness or strength in the dollar. As Panda stated, currencies are becoming the major factors in gold action.

Watch the correlation in the next week between long term rates and gold movement.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 20:23
cherokee @john-barleycorns'-hacienda>(@john-barleycorns'-hacienda) ID#344308:
lan-man---

re your post on the lbma-----
the major gold player you alluded to
this morning, and his statement regarding
a trend change for gold, fits with the other
technical and s/d indicators that have been screaming----
the bear is over-----
the bear is over-------

technically - a 1-2-3 bottom has formed and is still valid--dec--
s/d---------- the deliverable amt. per outstanding contract is less than 2oz.

now gold-finger him-self has waved his hand over the water, and
the wine is on the way! hoo--ray.

gold calls are still dirt cheap.
silver calls have become expensive since its' recent bottom.
you can play with the big-boys and have insurance when $10 & $20
days are back to back and nobody can get in! gold has bottomed.
ALL indicators indicate this is a high probability!
gold calls for break-fast tuesday morning; mmmmm--mmmmmm good!

cherokee!; ) planter-of-the-golden-seeds------dotssmfatimm

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 20:12
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Hi Futureman: We posted it yesterday that you would be here today.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 20:08
Speed @home>(@home) ID#286199:
Highrise: Machine tool orders used to be a good predictor or future economic growth. Now it may signal overproduction which in turn will lead to deflation. Consumer purchasing will, imho, flame brightly this Christmas in the U.S. ( inflationary ) and then quite possibly burn outdue to onerous personal debt burden ( deflationary ) . Many folks are counting on a big tax refund as a result of the recently passed legislation. That money will be spent in December ( borrowed ) and then the tax refund will be used to pay down the debt. Binge buying will be followed by tight belts and increasing bankruptcies as more people fail to practice simple economic discipline.
Note: When paying their 1997 taxes,U.S. citizens will get a $400 tax credit for each child under 18 and some extra deductions for college tuition, plus long term capital gains cuts. Watch for heavy early filing and previous non-filers with lots of kids suddenly showing up on the tax roles.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 20:05
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Mike Sheller: Is October 28th an important day for Alan Greenspan or stocks or gold? Or should I ask Futureman?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 20:02
Donald @Bre-xPrezSorry>(@Bre-xPrezSorry) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/12/y0023_z00_5.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 19:55
6pak The result of the Panic of 1873 @ Heart land USofA (look back to see forward)>(The result of the Panic of 1873 @ Heart land USofA (look back to see forward)) ID#335190:
The radical governments in the South were no more and the militant leaders of the Pennsylvania coal miners were being liquidated through judicial murder. No wonder the Commercial and Financial Chronicle reported labor is under control.... This observation gained something of the quality of a slogan for the short month between June 21 when the ten miners were hanged and July 16 when the statement was proved definitely premature.

On that date the first nationwide strike in history broke out on the railroads, a strike which spread from state to state and city to city, from West Virginia to Kentucky and Ohio, from New York to Chicago, from St.Louis to San Francisco. As fast as the strike was broken in one place it appeared in another. American troops fired on American workingmen as regiments under General Phil Sheridan were recalled from fighting the Sioux and thrown against the workers of Chicago. There was the Battle of the Roundhouse in Pittsburgh, bloody street fighting between troops and workers in Baltimore, and skirmishes the country over in which scores of workers were killed and hundreds wounded.

From the first day of the strike the press declared it was a Communist conspiracy to overthrow the government by force and violence. It was not. It was the depression exploding. It was four years of humiliation, joblessness, and hunger erupting in struggle.

Ten men were hanged on June 21 1877, four at Mauch Chunk and six at Pottsville. The men were handsome and young. They were freshly shaved, dressed in their best, and a prison guard told reporters, They looked like they were going to a wedding. Thomas Munley, James Carroll, James Roarity, Hugh McGeehan, James Boyle, Thomas Duffy, Michael J. Doyle, Edward J. Kelly, Alexander Campbell, John Donahue, Thomas P. Fisher, John Kehoe, Patrick Hester, Peter McHugh, Patrick Tully, Peter McManus, and Andrew Lanahan. The last two of the nineteen miners, Charles Sharpe and James McDonald were hanged on Jan.14 1879 at Mauch Chunk. Re: *Molly Maguires* hanged on general principles a few minutes after this hanging, ( Jan.14 1879 ) the governor's reprieve arrived granting them life.

In May 1878, a committee of the Pennsylvania state legislature, after prolonged inquiry, formally reported that Railroad Strike of 1877 was not a Communist insurrection but the result of specific grievances of railroad workers. The railroad riots of 1877 have by some been called an insurrection, said the report ....[They] were not a rising against civil or political authority; in their origin they were not intended by their movers as an open and active opposition to the execution of the law....It was in no case an uprising against the law as such....As before stated, there was a sort of epidemic of strikes running through the laboring classes of the country, more particularly those in the employ of large corporations, caused by the general depression of business, which followed the panic of 1873, by means whereof many men were thrown out of work, and wages of those who could get work were reduced.... ( Report of the Committee appointed to Investigate the [Pennsylvania] Railroad Riots in July 1877, Legislative Document No. 29, Harrisburg, 1878,p.46 )

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 19:52
Mike Sheller Kitco=MC2>(Kitco=MC2) ID#347447:
JTF: Einstein wasn't religious. He was spiritual. There is often a difference. Einstein's study of, and involvement with, Theosophy, allowed him to formulate some of his most important insights into physical world phenomena. But this was revealed through more abstract studies on metaphysical themes. Why don't you get a copy of Helena Petrovana Blavatsky's Secret Doctrine for starters. Let your mind soar! Check out Albert's roots!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 19:41
Lurker future_passed>(future_passed) ID#241149:
Futureman;
Oh, never mind - you already saw this tomorrow : )

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 19:38
Highrise MachineTool & Grains>(MachineTool & Grains) ID#401237:
Machine tool orders up 10%, 30% for year, verify exact nos. Grains up again today. A sure sign of deflation or inflation?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 19:27
Futureman @Timewarp>(@Timewarp) ID#340214:
Hi evrybody. Surprised no one took me up on my offer to tell them the future. I just returned from the future this morning. I'm presently reading next week's Wall Street Journal - it's very interesting.

PS My investments are doing fabulous to say the least!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 19:18
Carl @home>(@home) ID#333131:
Donald Re your post on market intentions of people - WOW!!!!! I couldn't believe that post while I was reading it. Then it occurred to me: If you polled a flock of sheep as to where they were going to go when they got to the end of the pasture, they would probably all say they would just go on grazing.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 19:09
JTR Deflation>(Deflation) ID#252166:
Frome The Age - Melbourne Online 10/13/97
http://www.theage.com.au:80/daily/971013/bus/bus9.html

Deflation may be the real bogyman

By MALCOLM MAIDEN

AS we head towards the 10th anniversary of the October 1987
crash, market analysts are occupying two main camps.

There are those who believe inflation will re-emerge and kill the
boom, and others who argue that a new economic environment
has emerged and the bull market will continue.

But a few are canvassing a third theory as it becomes evident
that Asia's economic problems are more serious than originally
believed.

It is that the boom will not be terminated by the re-emergence of
inflation but by the arrival of deflation, where prices are actually
falling.

The most famous deflationary bout this century was the Great
Depression, which began with a sharemarket sell-off on 29
October 1929.

The chances of a repeat of that disaster are not great.
Governments responded to it by tightening liquidity, which
Keynes demonstrated was precisely the wrong thing to do.
Today they would inject liquidity into the system.

But while governments have avoided a repeat of the Great
Depression, there have been other limited bouts of deflation and
they were all quite nasty.

The 1991-92 global recession, for example, contained elements
of asset-price deflation, as investors in commercial property here
discovered. Asset-price deflation began in Japan at the same
time and continued until the middle of the decade.

Deflation pressures economies much more than inflation. If it
were to occur globally, its impact on financial markets would be
profound, and quite different from that caused by a
re-emergence of inflation.

Let's first look at the factors that could combine to produce
deflation in the not too distant future. World economic growth is
patchy. In the United States, the economy is expanding at a rate
of about 3.5 per cent this year, and prices are rising at about 2.2
per cent.

To quote a former Australian Treasurer and Prime Minister, that
is a beautiful set of numbers, and it is one of the reasons that the
US market has sailed onwards and upwards.

But the US growth phase is seven years old, and the question
can be asked: if this is how much inflation the world's biggest
economy generates when it is running relatively hard, what will
happen to prices if the US pauses for breath?

The main European economies have been growing this year, but
are about to enter a period of instability in the run-up to the
introduction of a common European currency, a single central
bank and a common short-term interest rate structure in January
1999.

The run-in to the change may have begun last week when the
Bundesbank startled the markets by raising a key official interest
rate despite record unemployment in Germany. Analysts say the
rate rise ( which will depress economic activity ) may signal a
move by Germany to higher rates to bring it more into line with
its European partners.

Japan's economy meanwhile is struggling, despite astonishingly
low interest rates ( the official short-term rate is at 0.5 per cent ) ,
and the South-East Asian nations are so far failing to climb out
of the market crisis that began in July when Thailand floated the
baht and sought International Monetary Fund assistance.

The Asian currency crisis is the new piece in the jigsaw.

Since the beginning of July, the baht has lost 46 per cent of its
value, the Indonesia rupiah is down 47 per cent, the Philippine
peso has lost 33 per cent, and the Malaysian ringgit is off by 22
per cent. Even Singapore, which has an enviably robust
economy, has seen its currency slide by 7 per cent.

Interest rates have risen sharply in the South-East Asian
economies, and will depress growth inside those economies next
year at the very least. But if their currencies stay down, the price
of their goods on export markets will be dramatically lower.

Their hope and expectation is that the energised export sector
will lead their economic recovery. But the global impact will be
deflationary, as low-priced South-East Asian goods hit markets
in the US, here and elsewhere around the world.

There are two basic drivers of the sharemarket. The first is the
direction of interest rates. The second is what happens to
corporate earnings.

The big debate about whether inflation is dead revolves around
interest rates: if inflation revives, official rates will have to rise to
suppress it, and share prices will fall because company dividends
will be relatively less attractive. Deflation on the other hand
impacts mainly on the outlook for corporate earnings, which are
squeezed by lower prices in the marketplace.

Share prices fall as earnings slide. Interest rates also fall as
governments try to kick-start their economies. That means that
bond prices go up.

Bonds are even more keenly sought if the deflation is severe
enough to start causing bank loans to go bad. Then bonds offer
safety, as does cash and near-cash, including - historically at
least - gold bullion.

We are not close to that situation yet, of course. But the
deflationary scenario is a reminder that a low-inflation, highly
competitive environment does not guarantee a sharemarket and
corporate nirvana.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 18:53
JTF @re: what me worry>(@re: what me worry) ID#252312:
Donald,all: Here we are worrying about the LBMA, and the average investor doesn't have a clue what is going on in the market, and goes ahead with his investing strategy anyway! If the baby boomers prop up the market this year, these investors will assume the more cautious experts are wrong, and our next critical point may be 1999-2000! I hope the market doesn't keep going up this way till then -------

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 18:43
Donald @ChileMiningTax>(@ChileMiningTax) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/12/y0023_z00_2.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 18:38
Donald @What?, Me Worry?>(@What?, Me Worry?) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/10/13/z0010_1.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 18:36
JTF @Work>(@Work) ID#252312:
13 re: LBMA. Your comment about gold being traded as money I think is a certainty. I am no expert on the LBMA, but I think the best description is that introduced by Aurator -- that it is more like a private commodity trading club than a bank. Over 200 years old, too! I think it is very bad for the rest of the world ( us included ) that private individuals and central banks apparently rub shoulders at the LBMA. The extensive CB use of gold as money very likely has been duly noted by these individuals, and there has been manipulation of the gold price. Very interesting, as they say! Not much of a secret either, if others know what is going on at the LBMA -- just not us!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 18:30
SilGuy @Blanchard>(@Blanchard) ID#239400:
As to the coin dealers in Gold etc., Blanchard tends to be on the high side. You might try Cybercoins ( online ordering, http://www.nauticom,net/www/coins ) and Valley CLassic coin also has online ordering ( http://www.vccoin.com ) and also Paul Sims, another big dealer with decent prices has a site but no online ordering ( http://www.rarecoin.com ) .

Naturally, there are lots of other dealers out there but these are easy to order from, quick with service, good prices, good quality ( very important ) and reputable.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 18:29
Donald @DerivativesCausedChinaWeakness>(@DerivativesCausedChinaWeakness) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/13/y0004_z00_16.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 18:21
JTF @Work, re: truncated posted websites>(@Work, re: truncated posted websites) ID#57232:
To all: Re- fragmented posts. If you have Netscape, you can move the pointer to the more-- on your post, after it has been sent to Kitco. Look at the bottom most margin of your display ( where the Document done shows up. If it has a kitco web site referenced, all is well, but if it has for example a yahoo website listed ( truncated ) - namely, the one you tried to post, then you know the post got messed up. Since Carl has the same problem I do, it must not be due to my antiquated 486SX. Who knows where the rest of the post went!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 18:19
13 @LBMA>(@LBMA) ID#183379:
Could the LBMA also just be a big bank? That can explain the huge volume with little price change. Maybe people are already on a gold standard.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 18:18
Speed @home>(@home) ID#286199:
Goldbug23: I sold 2/3 of my HM and plan to sell the rest if this PM market doesn't get untracked by Dec 31. I agree with the theory that gold stocks will be hurt along with all stocks in a crash, due to mutual fund selling. I have tried hard to make money in mining stocks, and will stay with my plan until end-o-year. Every month, I become more of a trader and less of an investor. Good luck.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 18:17
Donald @ChinaGold102TonsThruSept>(@ChinaGold102TonsThruSept) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/13/z0009_20.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 18:11
Donald @IranAirSeaShow>(@IranAirSeaShow) ID#26793:
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/politics/stories/gulf_1.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 18:02
silverbug by the way...>(by the way...) ID#232412:
I heard rumors that James Blanchard is a regular viewer of Kitco. Additionally, Blanchard Coin uses the Kitco gold chart on the top of their home page

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 18:02
Donald @JapanMOF-OnStockWatch>(@JapanMOF-OnStockWatch) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/13/z0009_17.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:58
JTF @work>(@work) ID#57232:
Thanks Donald: I misplace my Yauger website also!
Any news about China debt, or Russian problems? That post I sent on missing nuclear weapons in Russia said that some of the Russian guardians of the nuclear arsenal were faint from lack of food. I can't see how one could make it more tempting to sell on of those suitcase nuclear weaopons for some money.
Did you see the Yahoo post today about the intense fighting between rival Kurds in Iraq? At the same time we have 120 Iranian warships in the Persian Gulf, air to surface missles flying through the air, with the Nimitz group just over the horizon! I hope those missles all go away from the Nimitz. Hope all is well - JTF

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:57
panda @Name that tune!>(@Name that tune!) ID#30116:
Carl -- What was the name of that song? It has the words, Turn, turn, turn, to everything there is a... As the numbers are derided as 'cooked' and 'one time flukes' ( flukes are an ugly parasite by the way! YUK! ) , this to shall pass...

But for now, I think we are in a full blown mania. No one can see this for what it is, because we are all inside the 'bubble'. The only 'ones' who know it's a bubble, are the ones who created it. If we are to believe that the liquidity that has been fueling this bull is starting to dry up, vis-a-vis the BundesBank, then the bubble has sprung a serious leak. The only question that remains is one of psychology. If we are in a 'manic' mode, otherwise referred to as 'bi-polar', who can tell what direction and high or low the flock of birds will go. I don't mean to be cryptic, but the analogy seems to fit.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:55
silverbug dealers>(dealers) ID#232412:
Cisco: Jim Blanchard has indeed sold his company years ago and opened Jefferson Bullion and Coin. Over a month is a considerable amount of time to wait for your coins. It also depends on how you paid for these coins. If you used a personal check, it might take an additional two weeks to clear. I have found that the bullion dealers where the salespeople work on comission are 5-10% higher than other coin dealers. I recommend you get a copy of Coin World ( a weekly coin newspaper ) at your local library and look though that for dealers. Don't hesistate to call them up and ask for price quotes. Comissioned dealer houses are basically designed for people who don't normally invest in precious metals, and are responding to an ad in the Wall Street Journal on the commodities page. Shop around for the best offer.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:46
panda @>(@) ID#30116:
Donald -- Usually that's a sign of eager buyers who can't wait, and willing sellers who can be convinced to part with their shares. Sometimes this evolves in to a thing know as 'distribution'. It doesn't necessarily lead to a decline NOW, but it certainly BEARS watching.

Although I sometimes wonder, with 200 point days now in the history books, can 500+ point days be far away? Up or down.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:44
Goldbug23 @Ingot>(@Ingot) ID#432148:
SPEED: What is your take on Homestake at this point? Their 3 cent loss projected is disappointing ( per your post from DJ News ) as has their performance for a long time. I sold half of what I had about a year ago and am thinking of selling the rest and buying Newmont. I also hold Barrack and Placer. You have my hold harmless for any comment as I take full responsibility for my own actions. That may seem unique in this day and age of blame someone else for your problems. Would welcome anyone elses comments.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:41
Donald @Sig>(@Sig) ID#26793:
http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/Ratio.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:41
JTF @Work>(@Work) ID#252312:
Lan Man: Thanks -- we may decipher the LBMA riddle yet!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:40
Carl @panda>(@panda) ID#333131:
Do you think there's anyone left that trusts the PPI?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:39
panda @>(@) ID#30116:
WOW! That's the first time I've ever had a post 'split' like that! Don't you love this high tech stuff? Now, just think of all of those defense/space/financial applications of high tech...

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:38
Carl @Donald>(@Donald) ID#333131:
Couldn't have said it better my self.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:38
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Panda: I have been noticing that change in the Dow lately also; strong in the morning, weak later in the day, a change from previous behavior.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:36
JTF @NewPhysics - Something from Einstein>(@NewPhysics - Something from Einstein) ID#252312:
To all: Since things are quiet, I thought you all might enjoy a quote from Einstein - he wasn't just a physicist, but also an excellent writer/philosopher, as well ( I think ) a pretty good judge of character. Strangely enough for non-physicists to believe, he was very religious.

This one is Titled Good and Evil, from Mein Weltbilt, Amsterdam: Querido Verlag, 1934. Exerpted:
It is right in principle that those should be the best loved who have contributed most of ( to? ) the elevation of the human race and human life. But if one goes on to ask who they are, one finds oneself in no inconsiderable difficulties. In the case of political, and even of religious, leaders it is very often doubtful whether they have done more good or harm. Hence I most seriously believe that one does people the best service by giving them some elevating work to do and thus indirectly elevating them. This applies most of all to the great artist, but also in lesser degree to the scientist. To be sure, it is not the fruits of scientific research that elevate a man and enrich his nature, but the urge to understand, the intellectual work, creative or receptive.
I guess the steady, constant encouragement of others to elevate themselves in our daily affairs is still the best way to elevate the human race. Perhaps we as individuals can do this better than our leaders.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:36
sig sigsauer@concentric.net>(sigsauer@concentric.net) ID#287389:
Carl,JTF,Donald,Byron:

Thank you Byron for your Y Auger reprint. I would like to know where I might find it on the www. It sounds like Mr. Auger is doing the same thing I do. Its purpose is not to predict, but as JTF said -- measure
investment sentiment pessimestic or optomistic relative to gold bullion. Its a simple system designed to aid investors/traders/speculators in weighing the risk to their principal. Buy low, sell high. ByeBye!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:34
panda @!>(@!) ID#30116:
Carl -- I think it's more along the lines of this; There'a a whiff of inflation in the PPI numbers. What will the CPI numbers bring? In a classic fashion, the Dow started off strong and weakened late in the day. Maybe this has more to do with weekend orders piling up in the order banks, I'm not sure, BUT, it is a classic inversion of the weak start/strong finish we've had for a couple of years now. Equally intersting is that the XAU started out weak and finished almost positive. It was driven slightly negative in the last five minutes of trading. Volume was relatively light all around today, especially in the PM stocks.

Columbus Day is typically a government/union type holiday. So, perhaps the 'players' were staying away because the Bond market was shuttered for the day. I suppose you have to place a value on the Buck somehow, eh?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:33
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
XAU Ratio Fans: As I understand the re-post from Mr. Auger the touching that we noticed on his chart was just a coincidence. Did I get that right? I notice that he has updated it this weekend.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:33
panda @!>(@!) ID#30116:
Carl -- I think it's more along the lines of this; There'a a whiff of inflation in the PPI numbers. What will the CPI numbers bring? In a classic fashion, the Dow started off strong and weakened late in the day. Maybe this has more to do with weekend orders piling up in the ord

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:28
Carl @home>(@home) ID#333131:
JTF, I doubt that your chip has anything to do with it. I've noticed that there is something funky about posting sites, when part of the URL gets posted and part is hidden I think. See for example my posts on Egypt a while ago. I can open one, but not the other.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:27
Lan Man @Market Manipulation>(@Market Manipulation) ID#320108:
JTF - I e-mailed USA Gold / Centennial Precious Metals and asked for any additional info that they may have regarding Sir James and the London Gold pool. Also asked if they would like to join us at Kitco. Let's wait and see...

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:23
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
XAU/Spot Ratio = .326

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:21
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Dow/Gold Ratio = 24.59

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:17
JTF @Work>(@Work) ID#252312:
Carl: I don't understand how you can post Yahoo html sites, and I can't. Maybe my 486sx is ready for the scrap heap-thought a 38k modem would be all I needed. I have a P75 at home with the same speed modem. Will see if posts at home get truncated. Could also be the digital line at work. Would be odd if the home phone is better.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:17
Carl @3's and 1's>(@3's and 1's) ID#333131:
Byron, That's spooky ( and wry ) . JTF, You're right, of course. Because I'm not a trader, I've never tried to follow this ratio closely. If I were, I like your simple to use ratio which you posted on Fri @ 14:14.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:10
JTF @Work - one last attempt with MidEast post>(@Work - one last attempt with MidEast post) ID#252312:
Fighting rages between rebel kurds in Northern Iraq

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/international/stories/kurds_2.html

Iran naval, air forces in Show of Strength

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/international/stories/gulf_2.html

Pretty active in the Middle East -- still time for some real trouble before winter comes in that part of the world.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:06
JTF @Work>(@Work) ID#252312:
Carl: Byron is right! You do need to get rid of those 1's. They spoil your ID#!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:03
Byron @ Talking of Ratios:>(@ Talking of Ratios:) ID#252132:
Carl: Thanks for the comments. I assume your choise of 3:1 has nothing to do with your ID#. : ) ) ) ) )

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 17:03
JTF @Work: XAU/gold post to Carl,Donald,Byron>(@Work: XAU/gold post to Carl,Donald,Byron) ID#252312:
Carl: I would agree with your comment. I think Y Auger is also saying that one can anticipate how much the ratio can go up by how much it went up the last time -- this is nothing more than Elliot Wave/Prechter analysis. I still maintain that the XAU/gold indicator is most useful for
risk analysis - is investor sentiment pessimistic or optimistic relative to gold bullion? -- essentially a long-term indicator.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 16:51
Carl @home>(@home) ID#333131:
Byron and Donald, My understanding of what Byron has posted form Auger is: If you're going to have a sustainable rally in gold and gold shares, you need to be having gold and gold shares going up at a more or less constant ratio. ( I've always used 3:1 ) That's as simple as it gets.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 16:25
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net) ID#286199:
Cisco: I have purchased coins from Blanchard and always received them albeit some were later than others. Byron is correct in his informational post. Be patient, it's a good sign when supply dries up. Blanchard & Co. also will carry the Mounty coins, but not before November 1st. BBL

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 16:25
Byron @ Ooopppps:>(@ Ooopppps:) ID#252219:
I wish I could double my money as easily as I can double my post. : (

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 16:23
Byron @ Solving The Ratio Chart Mystery:>(@ Solving The Ratio Chart Mystery:) ID#252219:
Donald:

I received a reply to my e-mail to Yvan Auger regarding the XAU/Gold Ratio chart. He ok'ed my posting his reply to the group. Here it is as follows:

Hi Thomas:

I did read the commentary regarding my ratio chart and indeed I do feel the need to clarify it. If you want feel free to publish my comment.

First of all, my chart is obviously two charts combined together. The XAU on the left, ratio on the right. But, I inverted the ratio chart. The reason for this was to make it very clear to the viewers that investors always get carried away. When Gold goes up, XAU goes up faster and vice-versa. If they wouldn't be emotional, the ratio chart would be a straight line!

The range I am using on both graph is purely arbitrary. I could have used any other range. It's just that way it looks better.

The only relation between the two graph I can find is the bearish divergences that started to appear since the 96 high. Each time the XAU manages a countertrend rally, the ratio moves above the previous peak that spun the bearish trend.

Prechter clearly mentions in its book that emotion in the first countertrend rally is at least as high or higher that it was during the previous peak, hence the bearish divergences.

Based on that, expect the current rally to bring the ratio above its last February high while the XAU should not close above it based on a weekly closing chart.

I hope I clarified any misunderstand that my graphs could have created.

Regards,

Yvan

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 16:18
Byron @ Solving The Ratio Chart Mystery:>(@ Solving The Ratio Chart Mystery:) ID#252219:
Donald:

I received a reply to my e-mail to Yvan Auger regarding the XAU/Gold Ratio chart. He ok'ed my posting his reply to the group. Here it is as follows:

Hi Thomas:

I did read the commentary regarding my ratio chart and indeed I do feel the need to clarify it. If you want feel free to publish my comment.

First of all, my chart is obviously two charts combined together. The XAU on the left, ratio on the right. But, Iinverted the ratio chart. The reason for this was to make it very clear to the viewers that investors always get carried away. When Gold goes up, XAU goes up faster and vice-versa. If they wouldn't be emotional, the ratio chart would be a straight line!

The range I am using on both graph is purely arbitrary. I could have used any other range. It's just that way it looks better.

The only relation between the two graph I can find is the bearish divergences that started to appear since the 96 high. Each time the XAU manages a countertrend rally, the ratio moves above the previous peak that spun the bearish trend.

Prechter clearly mentions in its book that emotion in the first countertrend rally is at least as high or higher that it was during the previous peak, hence the bearish divergences.

Based on that, expect the current rally to bring the ratio above its last February high while the XAUY should not close above it based on a weekly closing chart.

I hope I clarified any misunderstand that my graphs could have created.

Regards,

Yvan

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 16:14
Carl @panda>(@panda) ID#333131:
Right, but I also think everyone is holding their breath on the earnings season results. This may be a case of everything to lose if earnings aren't up to snuff and not much to gain if they are.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 16:13
Carl @panda>(@panda) ID#333131:
Right, but I also think everyone is holding their breath on the earnings season results. This may be a case of everything to lose if earnings aren't up to snuff and not mush to gain if they are.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 15:59
panda @>(@) ID#30116:
Looks like a slow day on Wall Street. Isn't it interesting how the bond market rules?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 15:43
Carl @dangerous games in the gulf>(@dangerous games in the gulf) ID#333131:
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/politics/stories/gulf_1.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 15:35
Carl @Egypt story>(@Egypt story) ID#333131:
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/international/stories/egypt_1.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 15:33
Carl @home>(@home) ID#333131:
Egyptian Moslem extremists upping the ante http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/international/stories/egypt_1.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 15:28
6pak No reason to fear @ Experts give sound advise, not to worry eh!>(No reason to fear @ Experts give sound advise, not to worry eh!) ID#335190:
October 13, 1997
Stock market investors shrug off worries about another '87 crash

NEW YORK ( AP ) - Not unlike in a giant casino, men and women, some in blue and green jackets, rush around the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange buying and selling hundreds of millions of shares of stocks a day.

Their clients - the rich and not so rich, young and old, Americans,
Canadians and people from around the world - are hoping to make their
fortunes in stocks by riding one of the strongest bull markets ever. It's not as risky as games of chance but still not a sure bet. Few seem to fear a crash similar to one 10 years ago this week - on Black Monday, Oct. 19, 1987 - when the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted 508 points, or nearly 23 per cent of its value at that time.

Canada's biggest market, the Toronto Stock Exchange, was also dragged
down, with its key index losing 400 points on Black Monday and another
240 the next day.

But even if today's markets take a tumble, many investors say they won't
be scared off easily. Sounding like seasoned pros, some say a downturn
would let them buy more stocks cheaply.

The boom on Wall Street is being driven by the robust American economy, which has shown remarkably low levels of inflation. Many U.S. companies and the value of their stocks have prospered. Moreover, many other industrialized economies are healthy, and many developing countries are moving their economies closer to free-market models and opening their
borders to foreign trade.

In many ways, these are unprecedented economic times, says Jeremy
Siegel, a professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of
Pennsylvania. Kurt Cerulli, a financial consultant in Boston, says investors are paying more attention to saving for their retirement years.
People have become much more focused on equities in retirement investing than they ever were, he says. Equities are a better long-term retirement investment over time.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Crash-Psychology.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 15:26
Carl @home>(@home) ID#333131:
Imelda lost her gold http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/13/z0000_16.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 14:58
JTF @Work - no crises for a moment>(@Work - no crises for a moment) ID#252312:
Lan Man: re: 14:37 post. I have seen this post before on Sir James Goldsmith, also the author of The Trap, and ( I believe ) an opponent of a common European currency. Have you seen anything else on this matter that confirms this information? Any web sites? Thanks. Still looking for Sherlock H. to unravel LBMA mystery.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 14:38
aurator III here a guru, there a guru>(here a guru, there a guru) ID#257148:
Byron et al

James U Blanchard III at Jefferson Financial inc. 2400 Jefferson Highway LA 70121, at least he was when i cancelled my subscription to the Gold Newsletter a couple of years ago.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 14:37
Lan Man @Interesting Article>(@Interesting Article) ID#31766:
Found the following in the Sept. 1997 issue of NEWS & VIEWS - Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals:

Sir James Goldsmith Death, Gold Manipulation Linked

By Jonanthan van Eck ( July, 1997 )

Billionaire financier Sir James Goldsmith died of a heart attack just as we were going to press with this issue. He was widely rumored to have been a big short seller of gold during recent months ( along with George Soros ) . We are digging deeper into this story. Rumors in London say that Goldsmith, known as the most astute market-timer in Europe was telling officials that it was time to buy Gold again. He sensed that the recent turnaround in Gold's price was The Real Thing… not a technical rally but the beginning of a great bull market. Goldsmith was well known for his personal motto: Don't try to jump on a bandwagon because by the time you see one, it is too late to buy. He was, according to whispers going around well connected financial sources, convinced that if he sold any more Gold short he would loose tens of Millions, even hundreds of Millions of Dollars.

In fact we are being told by well-informed People who have rarely been wrong in such matters that he had a terrible verbal fight with a powerful man in London controlling the international effort to crush Gold. It ran on for hours. When it was over, the 64-year old Goldsmith retired to one of his several mansions and just a day and a half later died of a heart failure… It makes sense and it fits what we do know about the way the Gold market ( dominated by London ) has acted of late.

Mr. Goldsmith was believed to have been the largest Non-Government owner of Gold in the world. Some of our London contacts have for months been picking up rumors that he had been working in concert with World Leaders ( public and private ) to force down the price of the Metal. The story is he was willing to sell or sell-short some of his own Gold in the market, every time the price tried to rally.

He had been promised, according to our London sources, that when World-Leaders decided Gold was low enough and they had completed what they hoped to achieve, he would be told first, so he could re-BUY his Gold, cover his shorts and come out of the situation richer than ever and owning more Gold than ever. One reason we have listened to these rumors is that traders in London were talking about one unknown market player, who was apparently attempting to Break Gold on July 15th, by selling and shorting Gold.

The July attempt temporarily pushed Gold down below $320. Per ounce. Needless to say, anyone who also had an interest in pushing bond yields lower would also be keen to see the price of Gold decline. That's why we always get such a kick out of gloomy Gold predictions by some economists who work for Bond Firms. Their commentaries seem to us to have become completely one-sided. Again, we warn you about such voices. Their case against Gold is not quite so tidy and neat as they would have you believe. They were without a doubt frightened when Japan's prime minister said recently that maybe Japan should sell some of its Treasury debt paper and replace it with Gold, to better balance their reserves. They jumped on him without mercy. We suspect Japan will do it anyway.


Draw your chair close to the edge of the precipice and I'll tell you a story F. Scott Fitzgerald


Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 14:25
Byron @ FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY:>(@ FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY:) ID#252132:
Just a reminder. Blanchard & Co. is no longer owned by John Blanchard. Was sold several years ago to GE ( ? ) and then resold to former associates of John Blanchard. ( All this to the best of my knowledge from past postings here at Kitco. ) . Only mention it as there remains the idea that John is still running the company that is under his name. He now has another company, the name of which escapes me. Maybe something like Jefferson Co.?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 14:21
tom@sprynet.com LGB>(LGB) ID#371208:
You are correct in applying a balance. But you have a inflated view of yourself as self-appointed protector of widows and orphans as well as being overly prone to criticize rather than adding a balance. The mental institution was more of a reference to some cherishly held beliefs that will not go away. I do not question your medicine, only the way you apply it.


Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 14:14
Eager Novice *blush*>(*blush*) ID#158273:
You are welcome!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 14:11
JLM @GOLD>(@GOLD) ID#251283:
Thanks EN!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 14:09
Eager Novice @the microphone again>(@the microphone again) ID#158273:
*proud that I can answer a question*

I believe the CPI comes out at 8:30 Eastern time on Thursday the 16th.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 14:03
JLM @GOLD>(@GOLD) ID#251283:
When does US CPI come out?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 14:03
LGB @Cisco>(@Cisco) ID#269409:
Not that uncommon to have to wait. Blanchard is reputable and will come through with the coins. There is a fairly thin market in Gold coins and sometimes those kind of promotions backfire as they get more response than expected, and have to scramble to find enough coins to fill their orders. Dealers have had a lot of heightened interest and sales lately. I've had a similar problem with ordering some $20 ST, Gaudens coins from 3 different dealers. Two came through, one I'm still waiting on.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 14:01
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net) ID#26059:
Cisco- being a coin dealer myself, I would be bitching and moaning to them for advertising a product that they cannot supply in a reasonable time frame..they should either send you the coins or send you a refund...they are playing with your money..I am surprised, because they are a big firm and as far as I know a good firm...but that is no excuse..if you advertise a product youd better be able to come up to the plate and provide it or make a prompt refund

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 13:59
LGB @Tom Not So SpryNet>(@Tom Not So SpryNet) ID#269409:
Come now Tom, the mental institution comments have been vastly overused on this forum. My comments re Puetz are directly related to the groos ILLOGIC of the positions he's taken. A counterbalancing influence for the Widers & orphans out there who might be swayed by market crash predictions based on Lunar events and such. Feel free to use Witchdoctors, Astrologers, and Shamans in making YOUR investment decisions. Feel free to scream and whine if someone posts a derisive comment about such analysts. H

owever, I'll continue to feel free to post my opnions about such charlatans. That's what give & take dialogue is about Tom. Don't you ever watch Wall street Week or any of the political commentary shows that air all weekend long? I know, you'd prefer a monolothic site where everyone bemoans Gold's lack of movement for years on end and predicts big gains next month after the overdue bubble burst occurs in paper. However, some hold divergent views, and will speak them loudly and even annoyingly at times.

Besides, I've made no secret of the fact that I'm a Goldbug at heart, but a realist as well. I have a lot more tied up in physical metals right now ( mostly Platinum & silver ) than I do in anything else. In fact I'm on the sidelines when it comes to the market, except for a hefty stake in my own company which has been performing extraordnarily well for the past couple weeks.

Don't get me started Tom, guy's like you should just quietly put your head in the sand instead of asking the rest of the world to join ya....

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 13:56
Eager Novice the microphone>( the microphone) ID#158273:
Perhaps, since it IS so quiet in here today you wont mind me taking the floor for a few minutes. I'm in the process of setting up a long position on gold and I'm wondering whether to set it up using February calls or April calls. In particular, I'm wondering how the so called January effect will affect the gold market.

I'm thinking that if the Dow does correct ( ie. dive, plunge, tank, drop, etc ) in the near term, then it would probably happen before the first of the year, right? If so, then the paper markets are likely to stage a rally during January and then decline during the rest of 98.

First question - Does this sound logical?

Second question - If so, what would happen to gold in January? Would it be likely to pull back as money surges back into stocks?

If so, then it would seem wise to go with February gold calls ( expiring Jan 9 ) rather than April calls. This is my first foray into the world of futures and options so I could really use some advice.

*pausing...looking around the room and realizing that everyone is hunched over their own portfolios and is probably too busy to respond*

Well, I'll be sitting in the back over here *gesturing* in my usual seat *weak smile* if anyone has some advice for me.

*making my way back to my seat quietly*

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 13:52
cisco ari@pop3.frontiernet.net>(ari@pop3.frontiernet.net) ID#344346:
I ordered and paid for 10 $20 Liberty Pre 1900 gold coins from Blanchard on 9/3/97. It was a special offer they had. To date I haven't received my coins. Company says they had such demand for their offer that there will be some delay. They promised to add some silver coins to make up for my trouble and assure me the company will deliver. Has anyone else had a similar experience? Do I just wait?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 13:46
tom@sprynet.com FOR LGB>(FOR LGB) ID#371208:
Why do you spend your energy deriding others? There is SOME logic presented here & you can choose to ignore the rest.

You would be better served going into your local mental institution and arguing with the patients there, than posting your remarks at this sight. You may even make some friends. ! )

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 13:39
Speed @home>(@home) ID#286199:
2: The article you requested was posted Friday in the WSJ.

Dow Jones Newswires -- October 10, 1997
Shine Is Off Gold And
Copper Producers For 3Q

By BOB ORTEGA
AP-Dow Jones News Service

These aren't the cheeriest days for gold and
copper producers.

With a few notable exceptions, most
gold-mining companies are expected to
report flat to lower third-quarter earnings
from a year ago, thanks mostly to slumping
gold prices.

Copper producers have seen prices slip in
recent months, too. Economic problems in
Southeast Asia have led to delays of several
major infrastructure projects - such as new
hydroelectric dams and railway expansions.
The resulting lower demand for copper,
combined with increased worldwide
production, has led to falling prices, said
John Gross, editor of the industry newsletter
Copper Journal.

But although the average price of $1.02 a
pound in the third quarter is down 12 cents
from the second quarter, it still compares
favorably with third quarter 1996, when
prices nosedived to an average of 91 cents a
pound after the Sumitomo Corp. trading
debacle, Gross said. The scandal involved a
former trader at the Japanese concern who
was accused of hiding $1.8 billion in losses
from illegal trades.

Because of the easy year-to-year
comparisons, Morgan Stanley & Co. analyst
R. Wayne Atwell Jr. expects a number of
copper producers to report higher earnings
from third quarter 1996 even though the
latest price drops have caused him to shave
his estimates.

Among the companies that Atwell sees
posting improved earnings for the quarter
are Asarco Inc. ( AR ) at 21 cents a share
from 14 cents a year ago, and Cyprus Amax
Minerals Co. ( CYM ) at 28 cents from 10
cents.

Also reporting higher earnings was Phelps
Dodge Corp. ( PD ) at $1.96 a share,
excluding items, above Atwell's estimate of
$1.90, a First Call Inc. consensus outlook of
$1.83 and year-earlier profits of $1.22. The
good news came despite economic problems
in Thailand that have hurt sales of copper
wire that the company fabricates there.

However, Atwell expects an earnings
decline for Freeport-McMoRan Copper &
Gold Inc. ( FCX, FCXA ) to 20 cents a share
from 24 cents a year earlier as a result of
lower gold prices and pricing adjustments
the company had to take for copper
concentrates that hadn't been processed
before prices fell.

Goldman Sachs & Co. analyst Amy P.
Gassman said she expects Southern Peru
Copper Corp. ( PCU ) to report earnings of
44 cents a share for the third quarter, down
from 47 cents a year ago, due to a decline
she blames on higher production,
exploration and interest costs.

Looking ahead, she said, 'we continue to see
rising copper inventories and some fallout in
copper demand,' which likely means prices
will remain weak through the end of the
year. Gross noted that copper inventories at
Comex and the London Metals Exchange
stood at 428,350 short tons at the end of
September, up by nearly half from 289,000
short tons at the end of July.

Gold prices averaged $323.82 an ounce for
the third quarter, 16% below the average of
$384.86 a year earlier. Since bottoming out
at $318 an ounce in July, prices have
rebounded somewhat, with the December
futures contracts closing at $329.90 an ounce
Thursday on the Comex division of the New
York Mercantile Exchange.

Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ) , with the most
aggressive hedging program, has locked in a
price of more than $400 an ounce through the
year 2000, said J. Clarence Morrison of
Prudential Securities Research. He said he
expects Barrick to report third-quarter net
income of 18 cents a share, compared with
16 cents a year earlier.

By contrast, he said he sees Homestake
Mining Co. ( HM ) reporting a loss of 3 cents
a share, reversing year-earlier net income of
5 cents. He estimated Placer Dome Inc.'s
( PDG ) net income will decline to 4 cents a
share from 7 cents due to a drought that
caused production problems at its mine in
Papua New Guinea.

David Christensen of Merrill Lynch & Co.
said he expects Newmont Gold Co. ( NGC )
to report earnings of 24 cents a share for the
third quarter. The figure isn't directly
comparable with a year earlier because the
company acquired Santa Fe Pacific Gold
Co. in the interim. Christensen noted that
Newmont, one of the lowest-cost gold
producers in the world, has significantly
reduced operating costs while ramping
production for the combined operation up to
960,000 ounces of gold for the quarter from
848,000 ounces a year earlier.

Although Amax Gold Corp. ( AU ) has a
strong hedging program and more than
tripled its output from a year ago, heavy debt
and high interest payments continue to
cripple the company, Christensen said. As a
result, he expects its third quarter losses to
widen to 12 cents a share from 8 cents in
1996.

Also expected to post heavier losses, he
said, is Echo Bay Mines Ltd. ( ECO ) , at 17
cents a share for the third quarter from 9
cents a year earlier.

Looking ahead, many analysts expect a
difficult fourth quarter for most gold
producers. Many mining companies have
been protecting themselves from the impact
of lower gold prices through hedging
programs, but as gold remains depressed,
'it's going to be more difficult to go forward
and hedge like they could earlier,' said
Prudential Securities' Morrison.

However, he said he expects gold prices to
strengthen next year, to an average of $360
an ounce, based on his expectations of fewer
gold sales by central banks and less
forward-selling of future gold production.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 13:29
LGB @6Pak, Knoxville suit>(@6Pak, Knoxville suit) ID#269409:
Does this mean that 1.8 Billion in Gold is now seen as the equivelant of 1 million in U.S. dollars? I guess the dollar really IS strong these days!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 13:27
LGB @Puetz>(@Puetz) ID#269409:
Well since everyone is complaining about how quiet it is here today, and since the markets continue their boring recent trends, here's my challenge of the day to Puetz. That market crash you claimed would happen by October 31 ( with 95% certainty ) . I'm still willing to lay you 2 to 1 odds against it Puetz! BTW, where are you? Still licking your wounds from the unmaterialized Lunar eclispe crash Those followers of yours tying up your modem/fax line complaining about their S&P Puts?

OK, enough needling about your predictions. Here's a prediction of my own. When the stock market crash fails to materialize, we'll have yet another revised date and time frame and yet another claim that all the analysis is correct, just the timing is a little off. In fact, we can just keep adding those new predictions to the giant pile of failed ones we've seen in the past few years. But you'll be right Puetz because EVENTUALLY the stock marlet WILL crash, and THEN, like a stopped clock, you'll be right for a moment in time.

Buy Puts on shoeshine polish, it's headed down! My shoeshine buffing tools are being given to charity as they'll see no use around here in the next few months!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 13:19
JTF @Work - sorry>(@Work - sorry) ID#57232:
Sorry- my posts got terminated. Yahoo usually is postable - will try later.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 13:18
6pak Gold bond 1882 payment @ $1.8 billion gold, or $1 million cash.>(Gold bond 1882 payment @ $1.8 billion gold, or $1 million cash.) ID#335190:
October 12, 1997
Man claims city owes him big for 1882 bond

NASHVILLE, Tenn. ( AP ) - Bill Hester says the City of Knoxville owes him big - $1.8 billion in gold to be exact. Hester, a computer consultant for legal firms, said he inherited from his grandfather a $1,000 municipal bond issued in 1882 by the Knoxville Water Works. Interest on the bond was to be paid in gold, and the city made only one interest payment - in 1910, he said.
Hester said the bond now is worth about $1.8 billion if paid in gold, or $1 million in cash. My attorneys will be asking for the payment in gold, Hester said. The City of Memphis lost a case on one of these ( bearer bonds ) , and the same law firm in that case has joined my law firm.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.ODDITY-Old-Bond.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 13:16
JTF @Work - one more attempt!>(@Work - one more attempt!) ID#57232:
Fighting rages between rebel kurds in N. Iraq

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/international/stories/kurds_2.html

Iran naval, air forces in Show of Strength

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/international/stories/gulf_2.html

Pretty active in the Middle East -- still time for some real trouble before winter comes in that part of the world.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 13:13
JTF @Work - trouble in Middle East>(@Work - trouble in Middle East) ID#57232:
Fighting rages between rebel kurds in N. Iraq
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/international/stories/kurds_2.html
Iran naval, air forces in Show of Strength
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/international/stories/gulf_2.html
Pretty active in the Middle East -- still time for some real trouble before winter comes in that part of the world.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 13:12
JTF @Work - trouble in Middle East>(@Work - trouble in Middle East) ID#57232:
Fighting rages between rebel kurds in N. Iraq
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/international/stories/kurds_2.html
Iran naval, air forces in Show of Strength
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/international/stories/gulf_2.html
Pretty active in the Middle East -- still time for some real trouble before winter comes in that part of the world.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 13:08
2 @the street>(@the street) ID#194225:
Would someone who has WSJ access be willing to post ( not link ) the article on gold from today's issue? In it, a Prudential analyst predicts gold will go to $360 next year.... Great Y2K post, Nick. Do you feel this thing heating up? Not your turn to save the day, Mighty Mouse - this is a job for SuperProgrammer. Will he show up in time to rescue civilization from the Y2K threat?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 13:04
JTF @Work -- no crises here, so posting>(@Work -- no crises here, so posting) ID#57232:
All: Have suitcase bomb ( nuclear weapon ) ; will travel Apparently there is a true story behind that new movie, The Peacemakers. Apparently the elite Russian soldiers expected to guard the vast Russian nuclear stockpile get extra pay equivalent to less than two kilos extra sausage per month. I think that is less even than the salary boost of the relatively poorly trained operators of that infamous Three-Mile Island nuclear power plant in the US.

http://www.theage.com.au:80/daily/9701004/news/spec2.html

Those russian personal nuclear weapons do really exist!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 12:45
Duncan To: JTF @ 11:08>(To: JTF @ 11:08) ID#215242:
To: JTF ( 11:08 ) . Thanks for making the time to reply. Your answer makes great sense and certainly helps me a lot. Much appreciated.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 12:22
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:

Mahathir looks a dead ringgit for a xenophobe
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971014/world/world5.html

Asia's values found wanting
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971014/editorial.html

Trade tension fears as Japan surplus mounts
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971014/world/world1.html

Euro on borrowed time after 1999 launch
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971014/world/weurope.html


Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 12:12
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Concern over interest rates shaves prices
The Australian stockmarket fell for a third straight trading day yesterday, as interest rate worries continued to dog the market.
The gold sector was one of the few to rise, led by Normandy, which gained 3¢ to $1.86 and topped turnover.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971014/market/markets1.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 12:02
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Embedded chips also a Y2K bug
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971013/inform/inform3.html
By Brian Hale, New York

A top US Federal Reserve banker, William McDonough, has broadened the official attack on Year 2000 problems to include disruptions from embedded chips that could be much harder to fix than computers.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York president yesterday turned his attentions from the US economy to Y2K problems for the second time in as many weeks with a speech seen as indicating growing concern at top levels about the computer date change problems.

His first speech, in Hong Kong, focused on the potentially serious problems for financial institutions because Y2K issues pervade every business area of all financial and non-financial institutions.

In last week's speech, in New York, Mr McDonough moved on to add his warnings about the much more subtle problems that are beginning to be highlighted.

Companies should worry about Year 2000, not for the sake of worrying, but for the sake of doing something about it, said Mr McDonough.

His renewed warnings follow a New York State ban on all non-essential IT projects until Y2K problems are solved after forecasts that the millennium will throw New York city into chaos with severe disruptions to power supplies, schools, hospitals, transport and the finance sector.

New York is only 5 per cent through its Y2K problems and experts have forecast that January 2000 will see banks and stock markets shut for eight days, power supplies and telecoms operating at halfnormal levels, schools closed for up to a month and hospitals reduced to accepting emergency cases only.

All this damage is expected to be caused by non-compliant mainframe computer systems but experts now are predicting that the collateral damage from embedded chips could be huge too.

The Institution of Electrical Engineers says billions of embedded chips are used to control, monitor or assist the operation of equipment, machinery or plant and often it is not obvious that they are there.

Their uses range from office systems like faxes and copiers to a range of building systems from lifts to fire control, heating and ventilating systems as well as a broad range of process control systems in manufacturing, medical services, communications and transportation.

Cars, boats, planes buses, trucks, trains, traffic lights, air traffic control systems, telephone exchanges, X-ray equipment, power stations, water and sewage systems, car park ticketing equipment and a slew of other devices use embedded chips.

US economist, Ed Yardeni, who has made a special subject of Y2K problems, says that the first real problems from Y2K will hit at midnight on August 21, 1999 when the Global Positioning System clicks back to week zero.

The US Naval Observatory agrees. It says some GPS receivers may display inaccurate data information and some may also calculate incorrect navigation solutions after midnight that night so the world's aircraft control software, as well as some shipping and trucking software, must be modified to expect and compensate for the problem.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 11:08
Lucky43 Lucky43@rocketmail.com>(Lucky43@rocketmail.com) ID#309239:
Another junior gold producer ,very undervalued and in production,will make another announcement this week.Polar BEAR RESOURCES ,PLR.V is a steal at these prices and furthur information can be obtained from their
portfolio at http://www.globalminerals.com
regards
Lucky43

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 11:08
JTF @Work - where to put your money?>(@Work - where to put your money?) ID#252312:
Duncan: re- your post of 08:31. What you ask is difficult, because there are other factors than age that one needs to consider regarding where to put your money. I am not an investment advisor -- but I can tell you what I am doing. I have 1/3 of my savings where they cannot be touched either by a market collapse, or by a collapse in the dollar. The disadvantage of this is that the money is no longer accessible for short term emergencies, of for investment, but at least I can sleep at night knowing that there will be something left for the family no matter what. I have about 1/3 of my savings in short term treasury bills/notes, ready for a clear cut investment trend -- in oil,defense and maybe ( underline maybe ) gold stocks. I have only about 1/5 of my total savings in the market, not because I am wealthy -- I am not -- but because this is the fall of 1997. I can't do what the Oldman does, for example with options on the SnP, or gold. Also I don't have enough experience with options to risk anything. I'm mostly out of the market because statistically this time of the year, in the year after a federal election, the market tends to do poorly. Also, we are in the tail end of an economic expansion period. The deflationary process going on in SE Asia makes me very nervous, as this could affect earnings in the US where I live, and pop the stock market bubble. We also have an inflationary process going on in the dollar, mostly outside the US, so that is why I'm waiting for the next gold rally. Gold typically goes into a bear market for about 1 1/2 years before it comes around, so it should do so in the next six months.

For your information, I'm generally optimistic regarding the US stock market from now till about the year 1999-2000 mostly because of the baby boom in the US -- something the Japanese don't have right now to help them with their deflationary period. If A Greenspan can get us through this shaky time, and the dust settles in SE Asia, our US market may be safe again for a while. Longer term, however, we are going to have a real currency crisis which even our illustrious AG won't be able to stop -- perhaps it will not be on his watch. This dollar crisis appears inevitable, unless we are able to withdraw our role as the world's premier currency. Given the patterns of history, this is very unlikely, and the ECU/EMU will have problems of its own, making it a less desireable choice than the dollar!
So by default, it will be the US dollar, until we repeat the process that ended the British pound as the world currency holder years ago.
Hope this helps -- I don't know your level of investment experience. Some Kitcoites are much more experienced than I!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 11:04
twesting twesting>(twesting) ID#37237:

Hey y'all - Gold to 310, Dow to 8300 by October 23.
Nothing more needs to be said, except ignore Puesty and GSC,
they are more harmful to this forum than Moonpie ever was.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 11:04
vronsky SEVEN MONTHS... or Seven Years in the Tank?>(SEVEN MONTHS... or Seven Years in the Tank?) ID#426220:
In taking aim at the Stock Market Greenspan warns against expecting the market rally to continue at the torrid pace seen in the last couple years:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger1009.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 11:02
Lucky43 LUCKY43@rocketmail.com>(LUCKY43@rocketmail.com) ID#309239:
Look out this week for another major move in a stock UTEX.A on the ALBERTA EXCHANGE.Already proven reserves in Nevada and Timmims,they are right next door to CROSS LAKE ,which had a phenominal run on Friday's closing.Stock jumped to over 4.00. UTEX.A. ALBERTA has the adjoining property and proven reserves on it.Just review some of their old PRESS RELEASES.

regards
Lucky43

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 10:34
vronsky LBMA EXPOSÉ: PART 6 (October 13, 1997) A Collective-Mind Analysis Compiled by Red Baron >(LBMA EXPOSÉ: PART 6 (October 13, 1997) A Collective-Mind Analysis Compiled by Red Baron ) ID#426220:
London Bullion Marketing Association is best described as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.” Daily gold trading NEARLY TWICE South Africa’s annual Gold Mine production:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron1013.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 10:21
Savage !!!!!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!!!!) ID#280222:
Things kind of slow this morning. Not at all like I expected. Guess it's time to get back to my Louis L'Amour book. ( The guy was good! )

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 10:20
Gusto Oro logustoo@aol.com>(logustoo@aol.com) ID#377235:
Thanks NJ. Hey--what's happening with metals? Copper and Platinum up but silver and gold slacking off again. I don't want to have to foreclose on some poor widow so I can eat lunch so let's turn this thing around here.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 10:17
Peter @ Toronto>(@ Toronto) ID#225157:
Pretty quite in here today.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 09:25
JTF @Work>(@Work) ID#57232:
Johnny Horton: Thanks for the great History lesson -- that's the way History should be -- alive! Not that boring way we usually got it in school.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 09:14
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Nick@C Most of those warrants have ratios to their mother shares.
All those new ones that came out recently with '99 strikes are 2:1
Not as cheap as options and you can't do spreads on them.
They seem quite confusing with different strikes and times.
Generally I find that the ones with the best volumes and dollars are the most volatile.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 08:48
Donald @USCode714FederalReserveBankAudits>(@USCode714FederalReserveBankAudits) ID#26793:
Audits of the Federal
Reserve Board and Federal reserve banks may not include -
( 1 ) transactions for or with a foreign central bank, government of a foreign country, or
nonprivate international financing organization;
( 2 ) deliberations, decisions, or actions on monetary policy matters, including discount
window operations, reserves of member banks, securities credit, interest on deposits,
and open market operations;
( 3 ) transactions made under the direction of the Federal Open Market Committee; or
( 4 ) a part of a discussion or communication among or between members of the Board
of Governors and officers and employees of the Federal Reserve System related to
clauses ( 1 ) - ( 3 ) of this subsection.
( c ) ( 1 ) Except as provided in this subsection, an officer or employee of the General
Accounting Office may not disclose information identifying an open bank, an open bank
holding company, or a customer of an open or closed bank or bank holding company. The
Comptroller General may disclose information related to the affairs of a closed bank or
closed bank holding company identifying a customer of the closed bank or closed bank
holding company only if the Comptroller General believes the customer had a controlling
influence in the management of the closed bank or closed bank holding company or was
related to or affiliated with a person or group having a controlling influence.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 08:31
Duncan To: JTJ (7:32)>(To: JTJ (7:32)) ID#215244:
To: JTF ( 7:32 ) - You sound like a wise fellow to me - I would be most interested to hear where you would advise a 48 yr old to have his / her money in the present times.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 08:29
Donald @MarketsIgnoreGreenspan(deja vu 1929?)>(@MarketsIgnoreGreenspan(deja vu 1929?)) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/12/z0000_z00_1.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 08:22
Johnny Horton For JTF>(For JTF) ID#252112:

Ol' Hickory said we could take 'em by surprise. if we didn't fire our muskets 'til we looked em in the eye. We held our fire til we see'd their faces well, then we opened up our squirrel guns and really gave em ....!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 08:21
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
You can watch the bidding on SPZ7 at
http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes
You can see no of bids/asks and ohlcv. It gets quite active around 1 hr before opening onwards.
Better than CME Globex. IMHO

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 08:18
Donald @MonetaryPolicyWatch>(@MonetaryPolicyWatch) ID#26793:
http://home.netvigator.com/~pcwonghk/monetary.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 08:08
Donald @MonetaryCmteLatestReport>(@MonetaryCmteLatestReport) ID#26793:
http://www.house.gov/banking/72297rpt.htm

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 08:02
Johnny Horton For JTF>(For JTF) ID#252112:

In 1814 we took a little trip, along with Colonel Jackson down the mighty Mississip. We took a little bacon and we took a little beans. And we fought the Bloody British in the town of New Orleans.... ... We fired our cannon 'til the barrel melted down, then we grabbed an alligator and we fought another round. We filled his head with cannon balls and powdered his behind. And when we touched the powder off, the gator lost his mind!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 08:01
Ted @ capebreton>(@ capebreton) ID#364147:
S+P futures up 3.35.....

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 08:01
Donald @GreenspanMeetingAttendees>(@GreenspanMeetingAttendees) ID#26793:
http://www.house.gov/banking/dimpmemb.htm

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 07:51
cherokee @eagles-nest-in-denver>(@eagles-nest-in-denver) ID#344308:
rocky-mountain-high has flown into the sky.
flight is fleeting, and john denver flew a fleeting
flight, and kissed the earth in passing.

two days and counting for the scion of the catholic church.

cherokee!; ) collector-of-gold-calls, owner-of-brass-ba__s! dotssmfatimm


Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 07:44
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
Wall Street Alert as Crash Anniversary Nears
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/business/stories/stocks_30.html

Sober Greenspan Gives Markets Wake-Up Call
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971013/business/stories/economy_5.html
Greenspan himself is expected to make two public appearances Wednesday, possibly dropping new hints as to where he thinks interest rates are headed.

Goldfields, Gencor Merge Gold Empires
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971012/business/stories/gold_1.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 07:41
JTF @Home - deflation or inflation?>(@Home - deflation or inflation?) ID#57232:
To all: Our more urgent problem than the price of gold and ANOTHER is deflation. Will the economic tide sweeping though SE Asia reach the shores of the Western World? We must watch key industries such the the auto indistry for any sign of weakening profits. This is the greatest threat to the American stock market ( and to the World's markets ) -- not a gold - induced currency crisis.

I don't have a clue how AG can solve the dual problem of deflation in SE Asia, and a stock market bubble at home. He can't pop the bubble, but then he can't leave it alone either. Somehow he must inflate the foreign dollar supply, and tighten the money supply at home. Lets hope he doesn't add fuel to the fire, like the powers that be did in 1929.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 07:38
jfkl;asjf jfdklsajf>(jfdklsajf) ID#251213:
United Kingdom wholesale price index up 0.5%

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 07:36
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
DJIA Price/Book Ratio 1936 - 1997:
http://www.lfcity.com/chart6.htm
At the end of Q2, 1991, DJIA was 2906. Since then the book value of DJIA companies has risen by 25%. If price/book ratio had remained constant, DJIA would have been 3633 at end of Q2, 1997.
This means that in 6 years, DJIA companies added 25% to their actual value but 170% to their market value.


Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 07:32
JTF to all - re:ANOTHER - just observe!>(to all - re:ANOTHER - just observe!) ID#57232:
To all: I hope I have not added to the frenzy about ANOTHER's posts. I learned years ago not to take any investment guru's advice on faith. Work out the rationale to yourself, and if it makes sense, invest. I think the original guru Peter Lynch of Fidelity Magellan said this!
ANOTHER's comments are in the interesting but not worked out stage to me. I am following George Cole's approach -- do nothing until the gold rally begins in earnest. If ANOTHER is currect, that big gold rally will be well before the 2003-2007 prediction of the long term cycles, as well as by Mike Sheller. Another way of looking at it ( no pun intended ) is wait till you see the whites if their eyes, and keep your powder dry. Was that first quote from the Battle of New Orleans? Aurator? Don't forget AG has to weather the 10th anniversary of his most feared event -- the 1987 crash! Also the EMU deadline is effectively Jan 1998. All of these events argue against a strong gold rally until Jan 1998 or so. We could have a little one of course -- but the powers that be will do their best for now to prevent the big one.
Let reason prevail ----

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 07:20
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie) ID#386276:
To all Kitcoites - this chart is very interesting.

Fed System vs Custody Accounts
http://www.lfcity.com/chart11.htm

There are more interesting charts on this site of similar vein, halfway down this page:
http://www.lfcity.com/directory.htm
Plus lots of articles on Ann Rand, Greenspan and more.

Nick@C Agree with you on MIM's also WMC & BHP but possibly going to fall further as BHP & WMC have broken past previous lows.
If this selling wave keeps up nothing will be sacrosanct!!! IMHO

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 07:19
JTF @HOme with Aurator and Archimedes>(@HOme with Aurator and Archimedes) ID#57232:
Aurator: Thanks for the post on China Telecom, I believe it was. After weeks ( months ) we still don't know if there is really a mainland China problem or not! Perhaps their debt is mostly in the communist leftovers and not the part that matters.
With regard to ANOTHER, I hope I did not add to the fire at Kitco. I dont' think immolation is imminent -- I just think his posts are intriguing and worth careful examination -- panic is not part of my scenario. We will have plenty of warning if his/her scenario is correct -- gold will go up! Right now we learn and wait.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 07:09
jda kgl;'a>(kgl;'a) ID#251144:
Gold lease rates are moving up at a good clip. They have overtaken silver in both rate of change and amplitude

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 07:04
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
Donald--read something the other day about stock indexing from a broker. Sounds ominous. Can you ( or anyone else ) fill me in

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:55
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
G'day JIN. I still think the gold dealers are taking a quick profit on your overly depressed currencies. Change your gold for cheap baht,ringgit etc. and buy your gold back later when your currency recovers. Those gold traders think the markets have devalued your currency TOO MUCH in the panic!! I agree with them. The tiger shares/currencies are now a good buy in my not so humble opinion!!!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:45
Donald @GreenspanMonetaryPolicy>(@GreenspanMonetaryPolicy) ID#26793:
http://www.prnewswire.com:80/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-8-97/332992&EDATE=

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:42
Donald @IndiaGoldSilver>(@IndiaGoldSilver) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/13/z0009_24.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:41
JIN CURRENT SITUATIONS......>(CURRENT SITUATIONS......) ID#206358:
All,
I'm not sure whether this situation influnced the recent market in south east asia,comments welcome!
These passed weeks,the local retail/factory/whole sale only liquid their position.the market is terrible.Someone can,t afforted the NEGATIVE economic closed down the shops,factories and redused the workers.Since the buziness are weak,lots of private gold bars poured out to the market ( cheaper than than the market price ) .More the refinery metals also flooded the market,EVERYWHERE AND LOOK FOR BUYERS!From one dealer told me that even the gold bullion dealers sell under or no premiun charged!Not sure whether they still bear on metals ..?...happy trading ..

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:38
Donald @PakistanGoldSupplyLow>(@PakistanGoldSupplyLow) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/13/y0023_z00_5.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:38
Auric @ Home>(@ Home) ID#255151:

Nick--Not to worry, mate! Must say, though, am watching this Oct. 28 thingy closely.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:33
Donald @JapanEconomyStalled>(@JapanEconomyStalled) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/10/13/y0027_z00_1.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:31
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
Forget A.G.!!! Alice says everthings OK!!

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971013/market/markets2.html

Aur@ator, mate, the serious posters are wakin' up--so we'll have to talk geography 'nother time , mate. PS--I like Buckmi ( n ) ster Fuller. He's not Fuller of it!!

Auric--take good care of that left n**, mate. Gotta watch yer precious!!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:31
Auric Nick, aurator, John C.>(Nick, aurator, John C.) ID#255151:

Go here for an awesome geography site... Even has full color photos of Aukland area from outer space! http://earthrise.sdsc.edu/

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:29
Donald @WorldwideDeflation>(@WorldwideDeflation) ID#26793:
http://www.theage.com.au:80/daily/971013/bus/bus9.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:29
Stalder Good Morning>(Good Morning) ID#286410:
Johannesburg Gold Up, +8.1 ( +0.77% ) .

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:23
George Cole AG. >(AG. ) ID#430205:
NICK: Markets perceive Greenspan as being all bark and no bite. He will have to DO SOMETHING to change this perception. Either hike rates or tighten margin requirements. The latter is more likely methinks.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:23
aurator laffed so much it hurt>(laffed so much it hurt) ID#257148:
John disney Only you !!! ROTFL



Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:20
aurator if the world had a belly-button, and it turned up in my yard, Why I'd tickle it so hard,,,,>(if the world had a belly-button, and it turned up in my yard, Why I'd tickle it so hard,,,,) ID#257148:
Nick Darn tooting, but errors per keyboard hit increase incrementally, TED will agree.. So is Buckmister Fuller' map. equal area. he calls it Dymaxion map, there is a projection that shows this beautiful planet, and *all* its inhabitants, of living on one land mass, whose *middle* is Alaska/Russia, occupying one third this globe, surrounded by seas.
probably we should continue this discussion off kitco. have you posted your URL, I am coy about this..

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:19
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
Crunch: CEF is a closed end fund. The NAV is published weekly in Barron's. To get the daily figure you would have to call the fund directly in Ancaster, Ontario 905-648-7878. The NAV is calculated twice daily. The published figure in Barron's is Thursday's. In an earlier post I incorrectly said Friday.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:17
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
Euro--update.

FTSE +74 +1.42%
DAX +42.67 +1.02%
Czech Republic -0.4 -0.07% ( the ONLY one in Europe down, folks, so check thoe Czech contrarian indicators )

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:11
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com) ID#24140:
To ALL-

As Attila the Hun's dear mom used to say, It takes a
child to raze a village.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:03
a @a>(@a) ID#25129:
are ( a )

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 06:00
Donald @Home>(@Home) ID#26793:
I am re-posting this as some of you are having trouble scrolling back and may have missed it.

This from history: Roy Young, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, spoke out against
excessive speculation in February, 1929 and stated that unless the banks curbed their
brokers' loans, which were feeding the speculation, the Federal Reserve would take action.
But in March the Board of Governors turned down a recommendation by George Harrison,
Governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for an increase in the discount rate
from 5 to 6 percent. It hesitated to raise interest rates for fear of the pressure this would
place on the gold reserves of European central banks.

The agony of the dilema is apparent in the exchange between Harrison in New York and his
board chairman, Young, at talks in Paris. Young insisted on the need for the Federal Reserve
Bank to take prompt and effective control of the market, not only for prestige but also to
curb the call money rate, which dominated the world's monetary position and menaced the
reserves of central banks recently returned to the gold standard. In a separate telegram he
suggested that Harrison should go over the head of the board in Washington and take the
case to President Hoover or to the Secretary of the Treasury, Andrew Mellon. The present
position was exquisitely painful. A higher rate to break the stock market or a lower rate to
repulse the attraction of call money.

Young was followed in public utterance to talk down the stock market by Paul Warburg, one
of the fathers of the Federal Reserve System and the leader of Kuhn, Loeb & Co. The
signals reminded Warburg of the Panic of 1907. Stock prices were too high, forced up by a
colossal volume of loans and an orgy of speculation to a level unrelated to prospective
increases in plant, property, or earning power. The market paused, regrouped, and moved
higher. Bankers, barbers, bootblacks, and professors talked the market up. The Federal
Reserve Bank of New York was finally permitted to raise its discount rate to 6% on August
9, 1929. The market paid no attention. On September 1st the stock exchange added more
seats, awarding a quarter seat to each member in its own stock split. The price of a seat hit
an all time high of $625,000, up 400% from 1926.

From The World in Depression, Charles P. Kindleberger
( The actual top was September 3, 1929, but no one knew it )
Has this kind of talk been going on behind the scenes between Greenspan, Comptroller of
the Currency, Ludwig, Rubin and Clinton? Does the October 28th appearance have this
scenario for its backdrop? High drama may be about to happen.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 05:59
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
Aur@ator--thought you were goin' to sleep!! What is it--10:50 pm in kiwiland- ( actually only 9:50, mate--remember daylight savings ) . My favourite map is the Peter's Projection -- equal are no matter where you are on the planet!! Greenland doesn't appear to be 3 times the size of the universe!! If it was THAT big-- the Yanks would've taken it over years ago!! You know-- BIG is GOOD!! Actually it is just a little patch of ice-- but this Mercator fellow must've had a fondness for snow-cones!!
I hope yer geographical bug will keep ya awake a bit longer!!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 05:48
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
Wake up Can-anks!!!

Europe all black cyber-ink.

FTSE +70.60 ( 1.35% )
DAX +36 ( +0.86% )

The bubble's gettin' bigger!!

PS--J'burg gold +7 ( .66% )

Good day to be contrarian, folks!! ( IMVVVHO ) . C'mon--you can do it!! Do the opposite of what them others are doin' Ya won't regret it!!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 05:45
aurator well i'm an exile anyway...>(well i'm an exile anyway...) ID#257148:
Nick, you are so cruel, dangling the carrots of cartography, planetography and the history ( comparative cultural ) of navigation in front of these weary, weary auratory eyes.
In brief, as i stagger for each key

Mercator's projection is the Tyrrany of the Northern Hemisphere because Northern Landmasses appear larger per unit area of map cf actual land area than the Southern. Quick Antipodean test... Look at a mercator projection of the USA, look at Texas ( not so much a state, as a state of mind ) , then look at W.A. somewhere in W.A ( i think no immediate refs available ) there is a station larger than texas

In Mercator, India looks tiny because it straddles the equator



Best maps, and therefore the least know, are the maps of Buckmister Fuller ( he also invented Geodesic dome and 100 other useful *really useful* stuff ) they show this world as almost entirely one island.

Moving on ( BJ- i'm the guest room now ) this world spins, your experience of sunrise is ( more or less ) experienced at the same time as people throughout S.E Asia. North/South relates to seasons, East/West relates to sunrise ( although, as Buckminster Fuller would assert, the sun does not rise, we is spinning...sunrise is animal, spinning is flying thru the ether- is it really real JTF )
That's why i love the *Westies* on this site. I sleep, they think and post buy and sell in any order. I wake up and precious goes up or down.
JIN is at home in the evenings same time us...



Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 05:38
Peter @Toronto>(@Toronto) ID#225157:
Thanks elf !!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 05:36
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
George Cole-- what does it take for everyone to get A.G.'s message The market seems to have a life of it's own--devoid of all common sense and reasoning. Newton's law about momentum seems to be overwhelming all the news. I have no doubt that A.G. is trying to put the brakes on -- but the car ( made in Detroit ) seems to be out of control!! At what point is the rubber band going to be stretched to breaking and/or rebound point?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 05:24
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
Aur@ator--re: your hemispherical ramblings--I've got a map with Australia right smack dab in the middle of the NORTHERN hemisphere-- with Adelaide at the top--Darwin at the bottom and New Zealand off to the left somewhere!! Our S. African and S. American mates are also in prominent positions and the inconsequential rest-of-the-world is down at the bottom!! Now I would like to know WHO decided on the current map ( some fellow named Mercator--no doubt ) . North and South, after all, are only relative. If you looked at the earth from out in space you'd have a 50/50 chance of having US on top. Now I think we oughta have a vote on this!!!

I have read through ANOTHER's comments a second time and my take is this.

1 ) Gold is going to skyrocket, and
2 ) Your government is then going to try to take it away from you!!
Any comment?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 05:20
Auric @ Home>(@ Home) ID#255151:

Mornin' Nick and John C! Nick--I believe you have it nailed down. John C.--Will have to look into Brisbane. I met one person from there. Happens to be a top notch professional here in Indy.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 05:20
aurator au..... revoir........>(au..... revoir........) ID#257148:
'Morning, George, thanks for comforting words, can now sleep in peace ;- ) nite

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 05:14
George Cole the markets>(the markets) ID#430205:
Asia weak this morning, but Europe strong.FOOTSIE up over 1% and this often sets the tone for the U.S. Gold now down 70 cents. No big selloff likely today.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 05:01
aurator mind you, HK telecom would be quite a nice war chest>(mind you, HK telecom would be quite a nice war chest) ID#257148:
JohnC G'day, Brisbane sure is sunny, spent some time near Mt Isa, in my yoof
Auric: Is you evening i thought you were on shift?. I expect other Gartman clients may also appear here, BART will tell you if he'd rather you didn't. But you see, Gartman dissed the Sages@Pagesdotkitco, not very friendly, perhaps even a little arrogant, and we've already discussed hubris in the early morning here..

i is jes an ordinary country bloke who can't see the future but who can read the birds, oh yeah, and financials. ( imho )

taken enough of your bandwidth

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 04:59
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
G'day John C. -- how's sunny Brissy Would like your banana bender's opinion on MIM ( you too Nick@Aussie ) . I think they're a steal at 1.56. Big Argentinian copper mine comin' on stream plus whatsisname mine in Qld?--Ernest Henry New management team are taking their job seriously. How about MIM $3.00 in 12-18 months? Have a look at the chart-- looks to me like a head and shoulders bottom. Price of silver couldn't hurt. Either of you got the figures on how much Ag they produce The warrants look too good to be true!! I've got nearly two years for MIM to top 2 bucks!! I'm still trying to find the catch on all these warrants I'm buying. I can't see B.T. going bust!! The puts on the banks and the calls on the miners just seem SOOOO cheap-- either I'm gonna make a killing or the All Ords is going to 3000 and gold to 250!!! If I've got it wrong-- then most Kitcoites are gonna get burned badly!! I don't think I've got it wrong. Your humble opinions?

G'day aur@ator. Let's get physical, physical... ( Olivia's got it right!!! ) .

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 04:45
Auric @ Home>(@ Home) ID#255151:

aurator--You got it right on Gartman. He tried to sucker punch Kitco. Not a wise move.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 04:41
aurator thinking of archimedes in his bath>(thinking of archimedes in his bath) ID#257148:
What are they reading on the tube this morning under Earls Court

It's a steal, PE of only 26,
China Telecom ( HK ) 's flotation - looks like kicking off with a ban


http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/v50c72.htm

Well, if Another's shadowy figures are investing in this 'un, kinda suggests we shouldn't see a financial armageddon at least until after this thing floats..

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 04:38
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
G'day folks. This meltdown is a bit like putting a big slab of butter on a griddle. The melted butter is now oozing around the sides--but will soon start hissing, bubbling and running around the hot plate!!! Asian markets are breaking down through key support levels, OZ is starting to look green around the gills and can N. America be far behind? I hope you are all ready for the big fish fry comin' up!!!

Mike Sheller-- I bought some call warrants today on a major Aussie copper producer. Now get that rhino trottin' mate -- I wanna see some horns thru the roof!!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 04:30
The Bard @ Avon>(@ Avon) ID#372274:

Gartman was hoist on his own pitard.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 04:29
JohnC @Sunny_Brisbane>(@Sunny_Brisbane) ID#24864:
Evening Auric, thanks for your comment yesterday.
Evening Aurator, across the Tasman.
Afternoon Nick@Aussie , thanks for your comments on options ( USA ) and WPL.
Afternoon Nick@Canberra , you can't be too unhappy with NDY up 3c to $1.86. Noticed lots of chunks going through today ( 250,000's and upwards ) total volume over 8 million. Calls: Nov 175c finished at 16c , intrinsic 11c ,cost of carry 2 to 3 cents , delta now in the 70's with 7 weeks still to expiry. Toronto listing next week. CAVEAT EMPTOR.

Good Morning to all our Northern Hemisphere friends when you wake up. ( And of course South American and African lurkers ) .
Happy trading All

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 04:26
aurator OOOOUUUUCCHH & WHOOOOHHOOOOO>(OOOOUUUUCCHH & WHOOOOHHOOOOO) ID#257148:
then the world turned the right way up, I could not view yesterday am's posts, and i know you'all were just buzzing. A lacuna. not to be confused with a loonie, a toonie, a moonie or..

a Challenge.
A Gauntlet slapped across GARTMAN's cheek? owwww.

Sounds like you made a client a little unhappy, then, while crowing about the Sages@Pagesdotkitco being so, you know, wrong, you mentioned the site, and provided a rod.. well you know the rest

and whoooooohhoooo


to you to Nick, sound like a happy nick
;- )

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 04:14
The Bard @ Avon>(@ Avon) ID#372274:

Alas, poor hepcat! I knew him auratio. A fellow of infinite jest, of most excellent fancies. His predictions were wont to set a forum aroar. Where be your jibes now, your folly, your 3-1-0? My gorge riseth. Your rest is chapfallen.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 03:16
JLM @CPI>(@CPI) ID#251283:
Is the US consumer price index due this morning?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 03:06
Nick @Canberra>(@Canberra) ID#386245:
Yoooohoooooo!!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 02:54
Cyb Jeddak CybJeddak@aol.com>(CybJeddak@aol.com) ID#287193:
Oliver, thanks for posting Another's Thoughts. His and other posters' commentary puts much of the market dynamics into context. It is very interesting. I have been fully invested in the precious metals and adding to my portfolio since Nov. 1992. Recently the low was tested. Now the fundamentals seem imminently driving the markets in new wealth building directions. Have ony just begun to monitor Kitco in order to gain insight into timing. But bottom line is that only a fool ignors hard asset emergence at some point. Again Thanks.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 02:49
Auric @ The BIG Leagues>(@ The BIG Leagues) ID#255151:

Peanut Man--I AM swinging for the fences. Furthermore, the bases are loaded. This is Opperation GRAND SLAM!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 02:41
The Peanut Man Better you swing for the fences on a 3 and 1 count>(Better you swing for the fences on a 3 and 1 count) ID#372274:

If you miss, there's always another chance to get on base.
As CNBC's seer Jimmy Rogers sez, Fed actions will not change the real story. The lemmings are all headed for the Hudson for a fatal swim. I know, cause when they buy my rosted peanuts they tell me of their great expectations.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 02:22
Dundee @never never land>(@never never land) ID#216107:
Thanks Auric. Very strange operating Kitco tonight. I use the frames version to post and an old non frames version to read. The non-frames version only works if I set it on Oct 12 short text and then change it to Oct 14 th. No other changes can be made and I must go back to the Oct 12 th version for updates. Oh well.

News from Hong Kong Looking grim. ...

October Hang Seng Index futures were down 275 points to 13,925 at the midsession close.

``Since the Hang Seng Index breached the 14,000 mark, there are fears that it may trigger some technical sell-off in the afternoon
session,'' Mansion House's Ng said.
...

Tokyo is having its troubles also, I think we may breach the 17000 level today or this week. Either way it is going to spell TROUBLE for world markets in general.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 02:20
Auric @ Home >(@ Home ) ID#255151:

Peanut Man--I was waxing metaphoric. If this were a baseball game, I'd say the count remains at 2 Balls!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 02:18
Savage !!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!) ID#280222:
Well gang, my new Louis L'Amour book is calling me ( West of Dodge some newly discovered frontier stories ) I'm tellin' ya, the guy was GOOD! ( even in the stuff he evidently didn't feel was good enough to publish, that he put away in a box )

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 02:14
The Peanut Man Auric......Why?>(Auric......Why?) ID#372274:

Greenspan can't really change things; so why give up a left nut to hear his take? GOLD IS GOING UP REGARDLESS.
The Peanut Man, THE STRONGEST MAN IN THE WORLD.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 02:11
Auric @ Home>(@ Home) ID#255151:

Howdy Aurator--I predict a very volatile week, mate! Savage--Indy is at its best now, with the weather fine, and the leaves Golden. Good to have Kitco working again, even if a bit strangely!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 02:10
Savage !!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!) ID#280222:
Aurator: Adaptable...yeh, as in light in the feet!

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 02:05
Savage !!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!) ID#280222:
Auric: Better keep the nu- . You never know when you might need 'em. ( especially playing this GOLD game )

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 02:02
aurator cockamamy world>(cockamamy world) ID#255284:
G'day Team!

Ever day a new trick to finding the wee small hours@kitco, gold bugs gotta be addaptable. Bought more bullion today, i is a appy, aurie auraratoroptorously, aurator.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 02:01
Savage !!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!) ID#280222:
Hey Auric! My 2s are back! How's things down in the big city of Indy?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 01:59
Auric @ Home>(@ Home) ID#255151:

Savage--That Oct. 28 request by Greenspan is intriguing, eh? I would give my left nu- to know what he's got on his mind.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 01:52
Savage !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) ID#280222:
Query: Where will the market be on Oct 28th? ( for AG's speech ) . Will it already have discounted what he may have to say? ( it has a penchant for this ) Or...will the market be taken by surprise?...I don't think so. Somebody knows what is in the wind, and will tell somebody's cousin, who is also a director at...and so forth. I think Vronsky's right, whatever he has to say...ain't good for the markets. ( and somebody knows )

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 01:46
Auric @ Home>(@ Home) ID#255151:

Dundee--Weird is right. Seems you must scroll through all of Oct. 12 posts before you get to Oct. 13. Same thing happened last night, but corrected itself by 0500, Kitco time. I suspect this has something to do with the ISP being on EST+5 time reference.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 01:42
Savage !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) ID#280222:
I guess Kitco's internal clock is mixed up...you have to request Oct 14 to get 13th. Can anybody read this?

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 01:41
Bob @...Another's good story>(@...Another's good story) ID#258224:
Good story. It begs the question, ...and what do you do for a living ?.
The London physical market does light the imagination. It does seem fishy that London admitted to trading annual gold production every 1.5 days. If gold had seem its glory days then the price should have sank below $300 by now. I hope that the 'funny-mentals' will soon surface for those of us who don't have your inside view of the game.

Good story though, I await your next installment on the US$ and Treasuries.

Cheers.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 01:29
Little Joe @ponderosa>(@ponderosa) ID#318410:
Jessica Cross was employed by RTZ Mining at one point. She is married to the Governor of the Bank of South Africa, James Cross.

She has published a number of books and articles on the gold industry. I believe she concluded that hedging is utimately beneficial to gold companies.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 01:24
Dundee @Oct 12 trying to enter Oct 13>(@Oct 12 trying to enter Oct 13) ID#216106:
Boy this is weird, I can't seem to get the comments posted for the 13th. For those of you on the oter side, its 11:30 PST and I can't hear you.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 01:07
Auric @ Home>(@ Home) ID#255151:

Can't seem to get Kitco 00:00 to 11:59 for Oct. 13. Hang Seng below 14,000. Nikkei below 17,300.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 01:02
Dundee @stuck on Oct 12>(@stuck on Oct 12) ID#216106:
Can't seem to get the posts from Oct 13 ( morning ) .

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 00:37
MoreGold @HK >(@HK ) ID#348286:
Gold opens higher in Hong Kong on early buying

HONG KONG, Oct 13 ( Reuters ) - Hong Kong gold opened higher on Monday compared to New York's Friday close on short-covering and physical buying, and dealers said they expected continued firming during the day.

Bullion opened at US$330.25/330.75 an ounce against New York's US$329.40/90 close on Friday.

``There's been a little bit of Asian buying this morning,'' said a dealer at a local investment house. ``The market has little upward interest and gold will hold in a range of US$330 to $332 today.''

Local gold opened HK$2 higher at HK$3,049 a tael.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 00:36
MoreGold @HK >(@HK ) ID#348286:
Gold opens higher in Hong Kong on early buying

HONG KONG, Oct 13 ( Reuters ) - Hong Kong gold opened higher on Monday compared to New York's Friday close on short-covering and physical buying, and dealers said they expected continued firming during the day.

Bullion opened at US$330.25/330.75 an ounce against New York's US$329.40/90 close on Friday.

``There's been a little bit of Asian buying this morning,'' said a dealer at a local investment house. ``The market has little upward interest and gold will hold in a range of US$330 to $332 today.''

Local gold opened HK$2 higher at HK$3,049 a tael.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 00:17
NJ Third Try>(Third Try) ID#352177:
IDT and Gusto Oro :

In my 21:26 please read 1998 ( for 1988 ) and 2003 ( for 1993 ) . Gusto Oro, I have the latest only on gold. A new report is due soon, but to date he has been very bearish on silver. This really is my third try to post a correction.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 00:11
JTF @Home>(@Home) ID#57232:
Golden Cheesehead - You might want to look at the Asia tonight post just below yours. SE Asia doesn't look any different than usual. On the other hand, I too will be eagerly awaiting AG's Oct 28 announcement.
The business with ANOTHER -- we will have warnings in the behavior of the dollar and bond markets before a crisis of the magnitude he predicts will occur.

ALL: Anyone nervous about coming events, or not eager to go anywhere near the brink will do quite well preserving their assets in the form of gold bullion, just like Big Trader, and ( I believe also ) ANOTHER.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 00:07
NJ PEI>(PEI) ID#352177:
IDT and Gusto Oro :

My apologies. In my last post, for 1988 please read 1998 and for 1993 please read 2003. Gusto Oro, I have up to date information only on gold. A new report is expected soon and shall update from that when received. Until now he has been very bearish on silver.

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 00:07
elf try also>(try also) ID#33180:
Peter: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/asia.html

Date: Mon Oct 13 1997 00:00
NJ PEI>(PEI) ID#352177:
IDT Gusto Oro : My apologies. For 1988 please read 1998 and for 1993 please read 2003. Gusto Oro, I have current information only on gold. A new report is due out soon and I would rather update from that. To date he has been very bearish on silver.

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