Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 23:53
JTFlick @Freedom>(@Freedom):
Donald: You have shown us today how the internet has dramatically altered our access to the truth in world affairs. Sleep well!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 23:44
JTFlick @NewPhysics>(@NewPhysics):
Allen -- This is in regard to your post 9/8/97 16:04.
You had said that a stationary satellite with a scanning point-aperture gamma spectrometer could easily detect suitcase-sized nuclear weapons. What about heavy shielding such as on board a ship, or on a bus? Are we still safe?
I am hoping that there is some top secret stuff that we have that works by a different method, but my security clearance ended years ago. You might be interested that I worked in at the PPL in Nuclear fusion from 1970-1975, and never needed the clearance anyway. I did get a kick that I was interviewed by two FBI agents. Those were innocent years, long before the Clinton era, when I at least believed that the FBI could do no wrong!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 23:35
DJ I like whites!>(I like whites!):
Panda - Platinum up $4.50 on Bart's charts. I'm still holding SWC, but didn't add to it when they announced their hedging for '97/'98. ( Went to RSA stocks instead, and the metal itself. ) Also not impressed with the response in the SWC stock price to changes in the metal price. Boring. I had noticed that N. American Palladium was under $3.00, basically at their recent lows. I don't like this company as much, but at least their hedging is in the $160's. I also like the volitility in the stock price. So I picked some up on Friday. ( Of course volitility can work the other way! ) If the mining strike in Russia spreads, this could send waves of fear through the PA market. Who knows, but at least its more exciting.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 23:29
Speed @turning in>(@turning in):
Panda: Yup, that's about the size of it. SWC will be a late bloomer, if at all this year, but should look better next year. Off to upgrade Netscape again and then catch some zzzzzzs.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 23:28
JTFlick @$600b for China>(@$600b for China):
To all: Compliments of Donald I was able to get one reference to the $600billion question. This is from the Sept 29 Business Week Issue ( US ) . Apparently World Bank president James Wolfensohn is a big supporter of China to the tune of $28 billion over the last 17 years. Wolfensohn stated that China needed a financial system, regulations and legal framework to facilitate foreign investment To paraphrase, he claims that china needs $600bUS external funds because their ailing financial system does not have the resources. I doubt that the president of the World Bank would say something like this, unless he was thinking long term. I apologize for not knowing yet how to send you the html file -- it was one of Donald's posts today, I think.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 23:18
Ted @ Warren(not Jimmy) Buffett>(@ Warren(not Jimmy) Buffett):
Warren Buffett:The first rule is not to lose your capital.The second rule is not to forget the first rule......g'night ALL!!!!...10-5....

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 23:07
Savage !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!):
Just took a look at the charts ( nikkei and oil ) that Barings ( Nick Leeson ) and German metals giant Metallgesellschaft fought ( separately ) to end up losing billions of dollars in '94-'95. I thought, Wow, look at that chart, those guys must have been idiots - it's going straight down!....then, I remembered gold, and what I have been doing....hmmmm.............. QUESTION: What is dec gold's 50 day average.....thoughts

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 22:48
Yellow Jacket Catching Up...>(Catching Up...):
EB: I see you dropped the hat ( $ ) . It did look a bit ostentatious :- ) LGB: See if you can dream about gold at $500. TED: I like Bernard Baruch's Buy very early and sell very early. Go Eagles. BART: Thanks for the site and the improvements!!!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 22:47
panda @>(@):
December gold up $0.10 and silver up 2.1 cents. Wow, I never heard echos before at Kitco. Spooky.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 22:43
panda @SWC>(@SWC):
Earl, speed -- If I read the companies press release correctly, won't they have worked off most of their 1997 forward sales of Pt by the end of Q3? Also, their palladium situation doesn't look that bad. They forward sold at $134/oz for 1997 and 1998 ( !!!!! ) , but the amounts for '97 are 134,995 ozs forward sold and at the end of Q2 they produced 120,000 ozs. 1998 looks pitiful for their palladium production versus the amount forward sold. The platinum outlook is much better though, they only forward sold 10,990 ozs of Pt. for 1998 at $382 ( !!!!!!! ) . If they maintain the same production level for platinum in '98 as '97, then the forward sales for '98 should be done by the end of Q1 1998. They really blew it on palladium though!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 22:41
6pak Go South @ Canadian Global Trade = Bottom Line Demands ?>(Go South @ Canadian Global Trade = Bottom Line Demands ?):
September 21, 1997
Business booming south of the border for Canadian companies

TORONTO ( CP ) - When Ken Thomson sold the last of his family's stake in Hudson's Bay Co., last week, he solidified his position among Canadian
corporate leaders whose companies do most of their business outside the

Hollinger. Northern Telecom. Seagram. Thomson. Laidlaw. Loewen Group.
These are but a few of the home-grown corporations that are increasingly
focused outside the country.

And the gigantic market in the United States is a prime target. It's a fact of life for many firms - grow or die, says business professor John Crispo. Nobody's going to survive in the global world of business just from a Canadian base, except for some resource companies, said Crispo, who teaches at the University of Toronto.

But business's largest responsibility is to the bottom line, concludes Crispo.Sometimes ( they relocate ) but only if they can produce more cheaply in the United States and if that's the case, then they should do it.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 22:26
6pak Geneva @ UN Agency @ World Business Giants>(Geneva @ UN Agency @ World Business Giants):
September 21, 1997
UN agency finds record investment around the world

GENEVA ( AP ) - World business giants spent a record $349 billion US last year expanding operations overseas, and China took in far more money
than any other developing country, an international trade report said

However, annual growth in investment levels declined markedly from the
late 1980s, said the report by the UN Conference on Trade and
Development. Investment in 54 countries by major firms soared 10 per cent from $317 billion in 1995, the UN body said. The latest total is more than double the annual average of $142 billion for 1985-90.

Canada's share of investment fell to $7 billion in 1996 from $11 billion in 1995. Overall, investment into western Europe fell to $105 billion in 1996 from $116 billion the previous year.

Investment into the United States rose to $85 billion in 1996 from $61
billion. Second-place Britain received $30 billion, a 36 per cent rise over the year before.

The report cites regional problems for the overall slowing of investment.
Last year, it showed a 10.3 percent growth rate, down from the 24.4
percent average of the late 1980s.

But China remained the boom economy of the major developing countries
in 1996, receiving more than $40 billion. Brazil was in second place with $9.5 billion, followed by Singapore with $9.4 billion. In central and eastern Europe, Poland had the lion's share of investment, claiming $5 billion. Hungary was second with $1.9 billion.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 22:09
6pak Japan @ 80 % ($37.5 B $)Import of energy source, Middle East>(Japan @ 80 % ($37.5 B $)Import of energy source, Middle East):
September 21, 1997
Kuwait-Japan H1 trade $2.3 billion

KUWAIT, Sept 21 ( Reuter ) - Trade between Kuwait and Japan was valued at $2.3 billion during the first half of 1997, a Japanese diplomat said on Sunday.
Second secretary Isamu Yagyu told the official Kuwait News Agency that Kuwaiti exports to Japan during the period were $1.9 billion. He gave no comparative figures.

Kuwait, including its portion of the output from a neutral zone shared with Saudi Arabia, provides Japan with about 7.5 percent of its crude oil imports. The diplomat said trade between the two countries rose by 18.8 percent last year to reach $4 billion. Kuwaiti exports to Japan for 1996 were put at $3.1 billion.

Japan imports some 80 percent of its primary energy supplies -- about 80 percent of which comes from Middle Eastern states, led by the United Arab Emirates. Official figures put trade between Japan and the six Gulf Arab states at $37.5 billion in 1996 -- the highest level since 1984

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 22:01
panda @!>(@!):
Bart -- I still can't get over how good this frames version is! I really, really, really like this!!! THANKS!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 21:57
panda @slow night at Kitco!>(@slow night at Kitco!):
Damn! It's slow here tonight! Japan taking Tuesday ( ? ) off to celebrate Autumn? They sure have some creative holidays over there.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 21:39
EB And ya gotta love Platinum spot...>(And ya gotta love Platinum spot...):
Right Now...


Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 21:38
vronsky The Inger Letter Forecast - September 22, 1997>(The Inger Letter Forecast - September 22, 1997):
Due to lack of momentum recent market action is characterized as having a CANINE AROMA, leaving open possibility next couple weeks the market may try going to the dogs:

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 21:35
EB I love it!>(I love it!):
Donald 20:59 - These are EXACTLY the type of comments that started appearing in late April. And we know what happened early May... like a Rocket! The respective economies have little to do with currency rates anymore, no? Ask Senor Soros. I LOVE this stuff! Thanks Donald.

Milhouse - That's what I'm talkin' about...but then you already know ;- ) watch lift-off...t-minus 'tick-tock' and counting...

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 20:59
Donald @Home>(@Home):
U.S. Dollar Declines; Japan Warns Against Excessive Yen Fall

The U.S. dollar declined in early New Zealand trading after Japanese Finance Minister Hiroshi
Mitsuzuka said he wanted to avoid excessive weakening by the yen. The dollar's decline reflected
Mitsuzuka's comments ``that excess depreciation which would lead to a re-emergence of trade
imbalances,'' said Philip Lindberg, a dealer at Bankers Trust New Zealand. The dollar was quoted
recently at 121.45 yen and 1.7735 German marks. It closed in New York Friday at 122.25 yen
and 1.77.52 marks. New Zealand markets are the first in the world to open after the weekend.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 20:54
Miro @great progress (not) we are making on Y2K>(@great progress (not) we are making on Y2K):
From the latest ITAA Y2K outlook:
Typical companies may be done with their Year 2000 conversions in about 15 years. Or at least that’s what the early results of a recent study seem to suggest. Preliminary findings of a Society for Information Management ( SIM ) Y2K survey reveal that eleven percent of Y2K work at companies has been completed, up five percent from a poll conducted last year.

The SIM Year 2000 Working Group survey, directed by University of North Texas Professor Leon Kappelman, combines the views of 175 Year 2000 program managers. With a progress rate of about six percent per year and 89 percent of work remaining, companies should see their Y2K programs conclude in 2012. Kappelman hopes that this won’t be the case. He
stresses that these findings require additional analysis, but he notes that companies still have a long way to go. The full survey results are expected early next year.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 20:53
Donald @Home>(@Home):
( AURIC: How do you say we give away a free toaster with every 1000 yen deposit in Japanese?

Japan's Banks to Dispose of 7-8 Tln Yen in Bad Loans This Year

Japan's 20 main banks will dispose of 7 trillion yen to 8 trillion yen ( $57.4 billion to $65.6 billion ) in
bad loans in the year through March 1998, the Nihon Keizai newspaper reported, without citing
sources. That means from the year ended March 31, 1993, the banks will have written off a total of
35 trillion yen in bad loans, or about half of the 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen borrowed by
construction companies, real estate companies and non- bank lenders in the five years to March
31, 1991. More bad loans are expected to arise as bankruptcies of small and medium-size
companies increase, the paper said.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 20:50
There are bulls, there are bears. But what does the RHINO have to say about bonds and gold? Find out in TRADING THE RHINO, Mike
Sheller's trading strategy that even a kid can use:

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 20:48
Auric @Home>(@Home):

Donald--A trillion renmimbis here, a trillion renmimbis there, soon you're talking real money!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 20:41
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Predictions from Central Bank of China. Inflation = 5%, GDP = 8%, state firms need to borrow 1 trillion renmimbi.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 20:33
Donald @Home>(@Home):
( Extract from Asia Pulse )
A sampling of last month's automotive industry profiles included the following significant

The government of Vietnam has licensed over 20 foreign-backed companies specializing in
the manufacture of auto parts with a total capital investment of US$200 million.
The Chinese government plans to invest US$12 billion through the year 2000 to develop its
eight primary car and mini-car manufacturers.
Since liberalization of the Indian automotive industry in 1991, twelve foreign manufacturers
have opened operations in the country.
In The Philippines, a Malaysian-Filipino joint venture plans to export cars to Mexico and
Panama next year in a move the company hopes will earn a five percent share of the market
worth US$140 million.
In Thailand, the turmoil over its currency has had a mixed impact on the auto industry, with
exports receiving a boost from the devaluation, but local sales declining due to decreased
demand for vehicles.
A survey in the PRC showed that people are becoming increasingly brand- conscious in
car-buying, with Mercedes Benz and Daewoo singled out as the best-known foreign brands.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 20:28
JTFlick @Who_Cares>(@Who_Cares):
Who_cares: Your point is well taken regarding the 100suitcase Nuclear weapons. What a cleaver idea to spend years developing the industry of a country of 1 billion people in near poverty, develop an incredibly cheap export trade of 160billion per year, undcutting the exports of many other countries, and then claim that a financial crisis is occurring that reuquires 600 billion of external support to bring wages and standard of living up to the point that they were not a threat to the developed world! Even better if there is a crisis! Just inflate the need for cash by $400billion.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 20:26
Donald @Home>(@Home):
( Extract from a press release by Independent Insurance Agents of NY state )
A recent national survey showed that consumers feel coerced when dealing
with banks that have the power to grant them credit while also selling them
other products such as insurance. Customers believe that they may have to
purchase their products at a higher price in order to receive the loan. In
addition, many consumers believe that products sold by banks are insured or
guaranteed by the Federal Government.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 20:20
Organ @Banks>(@Banks):
I am most concerned about a liquidity crisis generated by one of the huge Japanese banks declaring itself insolvent. With these banks involved in $trillions worth of derivatives, it is possible for a string of banks all oever the world to be technically insolvent, because of nonpayment of the derivatives written by the huge bank. This is a real nightmare but the probability of it occuring seems frighteningly high, especially considering the current state of Japanese banks and the other messes which are now compounding the problem -- i.e. SEAsian banks collapsing, insurance runs, and a weak economy.

I don't know much about the banking situation in China, other than the fact that many of their banks are clearly insolvent. But are the world's banks and industries exposed to China's troubled banks? Intuitively I think that this is not the case, so I have to wonder how much impact the shuttering of some of the Chinese banks will have have on the world economy.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 20:14
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Airlines cut of travel agent commissions motivated by greed.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 20:03
vronsky LBMA EXPOSÉ: A Collective-Mind Analysis - Compiled by Red Baron -- PART 3 (September 22, 1997)>(LBMA EXPOSÉ: A Collective-Mind Analysis - Compiled by Red Baron -- PART 3 (September 22, 1997)):
London Bullion Marketing Association is best described as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.” Daily gold trading NEARLY TWICE South Africa’s annual production:

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 19:59
nomercy Rubin>(Rubin):
..only headline available....

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 19:59
Who Cares Worldwide Deflation>(Worldwide Deflation):

Re: Chinese need for $600B.

Well, assuming this story is true, it certainly would fulfill
James Davidson's requirements for transfer of hegemonic power.
China assumes the role that Japan *should* have taken in 1990.

However, after reading the details of the 100 Russian suitcase
nukes story, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Chinese
story is being inflated and pushed to promote deflationary fears.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 19:52
JTFlick @SEAsia_in_Crisis, and the World?>(@SEAsia_in_Crisis, and the World?):
Donald: You are a certainly a credict to this Web site!
To All: Re -- A possible worldwide deflation -- please convince me I' wrong!
1 ) Thailand's bankers were trading derivatives apparently unknown
to their authorities, and got caught on the wrong side of the
market. How many other SE Asia CB's were doing this?
2 ) Greenspan is at first reluctant ( till now I would guess ) to
permit full disclosure of derivative trading.
3 ) Apparently the LBMA gold trading volume has been going up
dramatically over the last year, now to 1000 tons per day!
4 ) As I recall, Brazil was reported trading gold derivatives in
amounts equal to their total CB assets.
5 ) We have a known currency crisis in Thailand, Malasia,
6 ) We have deflation in S. Korea and Japan
7 ) Now we have the need for $600billion cash infusion into
mainland China
8 ) As I recall India and Pakistan practically had blood in the
streets when gasoline prices went up 40% ( did they stay up? )

Am I right about the above facts? I think the time scale of
mainland China's need for $600B will be the critical factor that
might trigger a world crisis. If we are talking about long
term, steady infustion of cash ending 2015 that's one thing. An
acute financial crisis in mainland China ( and Hong Kong ) is quite
Ideas, comments, anyone?

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 19:45
nomercy US Economy heating up (inflation)>(US Economy heating up (inflation)):
...First the IMF warns...then T. Waigel ( sp ) of Germany warns and now Business Week says U.S.: THE NEW ECONOMY IS PUSHING ITS LUCK....
The danger is that Wall Street apparently has chosen to ignore signs that
the economy's resources are stretched thin as they strain to meet the
robust growth in demand. Most recently, capacity utilization rates have
spiked in response to strong output gains ( chart ) , while delivery times have
slowed considerably, and the labor market remains unusually tight. If such
pressures keep building, even growth optimists eventually will have to cast
a wary eye on the inflation outlook for 1998, and the Federal Reserve's
possible response to it.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 19:40
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Why can't companies and banks adapt to new FASB rules on derivative reporting? Well, er, um, you see, uh, its like this, we're too busy with Y2K problems right now.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 19:40
Who Cares Nasdaq up 30 points on Globex >(Nasdaq up 30 points on Globex ):

Big rally for Monday?

Man, that sure changed fast. It was only up 3 points about
two hours ago.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 19:37
6pak Bankers Trust = Take over Speculation @ Beijing >(Bankers Trust = Take over Speculation @ Beijing ):
September 21, 1997

Bankers Trust held emergency board meeting say sources

The stock closed Friday at $123.56, off $2.44 on the day. On the contrary, we remain focused on the exciting opportunities inherent in our existing businesses. Our firm is already benefitting from our ability to offer clients truly integrated investment banking capabilities as a result of our recent merger with Alex. Brown Inc, said BT chairman, chief executive and president Frank Newman in a statement.

Newman was in Beijing on Thursday, at the time the rumors surfaced, according to Bankers Trust.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 19:37
nomercy Insider selling predicts Bear Market>(Insider selling predicts Bear Market):
Corporate insiders as well have shown more liking for
selling than buying and Vickers Weekly Insider's
eight-week sell/buy ratio has plunged again -- an ominous
move because insider trading has accurately predicted
the market for years.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 19:30
nomercy Things are never as they appear>(Things are never as they appear):
..hi Donald...great stuff....
It appears that IMF & Euro backers are not thrilled about SE Asia establishing an emergency Asian fund sounds like the Europeans & the Americans were thinking of 'squeezing' Asia. ( Could it be the attack on the Tiger Countries was PREMIDATED

Japan backs $133bn Asia fund

By Michael Dwyer, Hong Kong

Japan is leading a push for the creation of a $US100
billion ( $133 billion ) Asian monetary fund designed to
avoid further currency turmoil in the region.
Establishment of the fund is seen as the first step towards
greater currency integration in Asia.

Preliminary meetings of the International Monetary Fund
and the World Bank in Hong Kong at the weekend were
dominated by debate on the fund proposal, amid growing
signs that the global economy is evolving into three
competing currency blocs based on the US, Europe and

The fund proposal is facing resistance from the IMF and
the European Union.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 19:22


Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 19:20
Donald @Home>(@Home):
ORGAN: Indeed, I am predicting a deflation; but I do not think it has started yet. What we have seen so far is only minor price reductions caused by low wage producers in Latin America, Asia and Eastern Europe making products at lower prices than can be made in the traditional industrial world. When the financial markets break we will see real DEFLATION. That is the kind of unmanageable deflation that collapses real estate prices, business prices, things that are heavily financed by debt. I expect the worst ONLY after a market crash or an extended market downturn. If it has not started already it is close at hand. My prediction does not go beyond the initial financial market break and the resultant deflation. I need to experience at least a U.S. congressional election, or, better still, a U.S. presidential election, to predict beyond that point.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 19:17
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
George S. Cole: Re your 11:04 and the G7, I've made a graph showing the price of gold since 1975 and inserted vertical reference lines corresponding to each meeting of the G7 since its inception. In eyeballing the data, it does not appear to me that the conjecture is true. However, it's very difficult to tell because of the scale of the graph, and I have not formally tested the hypothesis yet to see if the meetings acutally do have a statistically significant effect on the price of gold. So, from my point of view, it's still up in the air. Here are the dates of the G7 meetings, if you'd like to do some higher resolution graphs of your own:

Denver, Colorado, USA: 20-22 June 1997 and Hong Kong: 20-22 Setember 97
Lyon, France: 27-29 June 1996 and Moscow, Russia: April 19-20, 1996
Halifax, Canada: 15-17 June 1995
Naples, Italy: 8-10 July 1994
Tokyo, Japan ( Tokyo III ) : 7-9 July 1993
Munich, Germany: 6-8 July 1992
London, UK ( London III ) : 15-17 July 1991
Houston, Texas, USA: 9-11 July 1990
Paris, France ( Summit of the Arch ) : 14-16 July 1989

Toronto, Canada: 19-21 June 1988
Venice, Italy ( Venice II ) : 8-10 June 1987
Tokyo, Japan ( Tokyo II ) : 4-6 May 1986
Bonn, West Germany ( Bonn II ) : 2-4 May 1985
London, UK ( London II ) : 7-9 June 1984
Williamsburg, Virginia, USA: 28-30 May 1983
Versailles, France: 4-6 June 1982

Ottawa, Canada ( Montebello ) : 20-21 July 1981
Venice, Italy ( Venice I ) : 22-23 June 1980
Tokyo, Japan ( Tokyo I ) : 28-29 June 1979
Bonn, West Germany ( Bonn I ) : 16-17 July 1978
London, UK ( London I ) : 7-8 May 1977
San Juan, Puerto Rico, USA: 27-28 June 1976
Rambouillet, France: 15-17 November 1975

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 19:09
Bob M: Regarding your $500 dollar bill: it depends on the condition of the bill. Assuming a bill that has seen some circulation, but is still in pretty good shape, your bill would be purchased by a dealer for about $555-565. The market on the 500 and 1000 dollar bill really moves in big waves ( don't tell Elliot or Ted! ) .

I sent you an e-mail -- Let me know if you need anymore info.++++++++

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 19:00
6pak Donald @ 18:37>(Donald @ 18:37):
Damn Agile, for a 63 yr. old bear. Obviously, I am also a bear. As if one
could not tell eh!. Happy searching Donald, great work that you do.
Arch-rivals we are not. I always check in, and check out, what you and
nomercy have posted. I find it great fun, as I hope others, find the
information of use. I am eight years behind : ) : ) : ) Thanks, take care.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 18:57
Who Cares Monopolization of Information>(Monopolization of Information):

One of the corollaries of the Information Age is that monopolization
of information is getting harder and harder. If you base your
competitive advantage on monopolization of information, you is in
trouble, most likely. U.S. Post Office included.

Good day, Pubescent Organ. My face is clean-shaven and my hair
still mostly black. Don't steal my schtick. : )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 18:52
Donald @Home>(@Home):
End all monoplies, including the U.S. Post Office.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 18:46
Organ Inflation-Deflation>(Inflation-Deflation):
Good day Graybeards of Kitco. Some thoughts on inflation and deflation.
So which is it, inflation or deflation? Both, of course! Is it possible to have inflation and deflation simultaneously? Sure. Where did the deflation come from? Japan. It started after their crash in '89 and they exported their deflation to Europe and the rest of the world. Their low interest rates allowed exporters to manufacture goods cheaply. Lots of goods and real estate flooded the world economy, driving down prices. Donald has shown, quite conclusively in my opinion, that the predominant worldwide economic force right now is deflationary.

But what about the rate of M3 growth, which looks like it is spiralling out of control? Well, the Fed is printing money, lots of it ( or making book entries ) . Where is the money going? To help buy back Treasurys and perhaps to pay off debt. But this force is inflationary! Where are the effects of this inflation? In the share market and bond market. The liquidity wound up in Wall Street ( and, since the USD is the de facto currency of the world, in bourses worldwide ) .

Simultaneous inflation-deflation -- not that difficult of a concept to understand. As long as the Fed can keep the stock markets from crashing, then in theory they could keep this scenerio afloat for some time longer yet. The deflationary forces keep bond and stock traders happy, and allow the Fed to safely add as much liquidity as necessary to keep these markets afloat.

Theoretically, as long as the Fed can keep the share market from a violent crash then this scenerio can be perpetuated ad infinitum. As long as the inflation is only present in the paper markets, and not in real goods, commodities or gold, then there is no reason why it can't go on forever.

A terrestrial explanation -- no metaphysics or new physics required.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 18:37
Donald @Home>(@Home):
JTFLICK: I am new to the Internet ( but not to investing ) and with the gravity of 63 years on my shoulders I have to move fast to keep ahead of my arch-rivals, Nomercy and 6Pak. I am a Bear, so the trick is to use bearish search words like: chaos, riots, turmoil, bankrupt, devaluation, deflation, losses, etc. I also use a lot of country searchwords but you need to skip over dozens of damn soccer scores to find the red meat. Kitcoites are going to stay ahead of the pack! I was just kidding about Nomercy and 6Pak ( sort of ) .

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 18:30
Lurker Disclosure>(Disclosure):
It sounds like this new openess would make it a lot easier to know where the gold is and who has been selling.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said the Asian currency turmoil had highlighted the need for increased transparency and
surveillance, particularly of central banks' balance sheets.
Disclosure of more complete information on central bank balance sheets and operations, particularly swap and forward
operations, is one important step,'' Rubin told the committee.

The U.S. Treasury already discloses its positions, as do the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Sweden.

Britain used the IMF meeting as a platform to say it too would publish quarterly details of its official gold and foreign exchange

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 18:29
6pak Wealth of Nations @ North America>(Wealth of Nations @ North America):
President Grover Cleveland, Annual Message to Congress, 1888

As we view the achievements of aggregated capital, we discover the
existence of trusts, combinations and monopolies, while the citizen is
struggling far in the rear or is trampled to death beneath an iron heel.
Corporations, which should be the carefully restrained creatures of the
law and the servants of the people, are fast becoming the people's

Adam Smith, in Wealth of Nations: Civil government, so far as it is
instituted for the security of property, is in reality instituted for the
defense of the rich against the poor, or of those who have some property
against those who have none at all.

Adam Smith in Nature and causes of the wealth of Nations: Consumption
is the sole end and purpose of all production, and the interest of the
producer ought to be attended to,* only * so far as it may be necessary
for promoting that of the consumer. who in the long run has full control
over what will and will not be produced, says Smith. ( 1776 )

Adam Smith writes, The discovery of America, and that of the passage to
the East Indies by the Cape of Good Hope, are the two greatest and most
important events recorded in the history of mankind.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 18:29
Miro predicting market behavior based on Y2K>(predicting market behavior based on Y2K):
As many other posters to this site I try to post about things I know and think they may have some significance in shaping the future behavior of market. As I work on Y2K problem and you can see some posts from me related to this problem. Lately we had a few exchanges between believers and infidels, doom and gloom and no problem participants. I hesitate to take sides, not because I don’t believe that Y2K problem is serious ( I know better than that ) but because we are talking about market and it proves to us every day that it has life of its own and don’t want to follow any rules.
In many other factors influencing market we can use some historical parallel but this does not apply to Y2K. We never went though something like this, economy was never so much dependent of computers, and we never attempted to fix problem of this magnitude with high system interdependencies. Will we finish on time and be OK? We don’t know. ( I am less confident than some other posters, probably because I face it every day ) . What it will do to us when we are not on time? We don’t know so we try to apply some scenarios but we have no way to validate it . What will it do to market? Again - we don’t know so we try to guesstimate. Can market be influenced by decreased revenues and profit? By some banks and companies failing? By disruption to financial markets and economic activities? By such events happening at the same time across the world? One would tend to say yes,. however, this market proved us wrong many times before.
Well, at this time jury is out. Just like when we try to estimate whether we will have inflation or deflation in our future. Just like we try to assess what will strong $US vers. Yen do, or growing P/E and market valuation, or lunar cycle, or validity of government statistics. I just know that Y2K will be here and it has induced my interest in gold because I was applying market down gold up rule. God knows I was wrong too many times and it looks like that no logic applies when it comes to market these days. I am positive that it'll be more than no event, however I don't dare to say where it will place on scale 1 to 10. So I’ll just keep posting and you make your own decisions.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 18:24
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Palestinian-Israeli tensions escalate.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 18:21
panda @one.more.time...>(@one.more.time...):
Tick volume chart for NEM

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 18:19
panda @NEM>(@NEM):
Volume tick chart for NEM.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 18:18
panda @HM >(@HM ):
Volume tick chart for HM. Extreme right is Fridays' Triple Witch expiration.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 18:09
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Could European countries experience the Asian currency syndrome? A list of European candidates.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 17:58
JTFlick @NewPhysics>(@NewPhysics):
Donald: You are amazing -- I can barely keep up with the information you generate! Does it come from any particular source so that others can contribute ( when I learn how ) ?
To all: Does anyone have an expert opinion on the SE Asia implosion? If mainland China also needs a currency infusion, what is to keep these events from eventually triggering the crash that Peutz is talking about?
Is this a non-problem because most of the currency turmoil is over, or is the worst yet to come?

I hope this stimulates plenty of discussion!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 17:50
ONYE @Redondo>(@Redondo):
I have been following this group for a few months and finally decided to post. Right on WW a Republican Conservative is someone who cannot enjoy food unless they know someone is starving. This is the litmus test for so-called conservatism.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 17:47
Donald @Home>(@Home):
China faces a task of unparalleled difficulty.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 17:41
JTFlick @LBMA>(@LBMA):
Aurator: I am no expert in this area, but I do know Standard Chartered is a member of that mysterious LBMA. I gather the dollar account can be either credit or debit, with appropriate interest charged of offered. Is the gold account done in similar manner, I gather after the gold purchase is made? Deferred settlment sounds like you can close out the accounts any time you want. This sounds very similar to setting up a cash account for stock trading. I bet its more complicated than this.
I wonder which account the Middle Eastern traders prefer for safety, the dollar account or the gold account? Seriously, I would guess that these Middle Eastern traders know alot about the LBMA, and what goes on there.
I hope this comment stimulates others far more knowlegable than me.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 17:35
Who Cares Soros is right>(Soros is right):

If countries around the world weren't intentionally destroying
their currencies, Soros wouldn't be able to plunder them.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 17:31

Dr. Mahathir Mohamed is RIGHT. When FOREIGN EXCHANGE is used for other than BUSINESS INVESTMENT it becomes a menance, not Dr. Mahathir Mohammed.
IMHO, foreign exchange speculation makes fiat currencies the main game IN TOWN, while gold an also ran.
Where are huge sums of money going?
Answer: Exchange rate speculation in fiat money, while real money suffers. What a joke.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 17:26
Lurker Bears back?>(Bears back?):
HL Camp says matching patterns for Mondays stock market favor Bears. Suggests opening rally with mini-crash into last 30 minutes.
( you may need to scroll down in bottom frame )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 17:13
PB ...>(...):
Shellster: I've been a fan for a while. I've begun dabbling in astrology recently and have been amazed with its accuracy re: personalities. I haven't tried to apply it to markets, which seems much more complicated than casting a natal chart ( besides, I have no money so the interest would be purely academic ) . Hence springs some of my admiration. Unfortunately, I've got to run, but I'd love to be in touch in the future. Ciao.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 17:07
Mike Sheller Holy Moly>(Holy Moly):
PB: If I were God, I wouldn't HAVE to be on time. But I appreciate the awestruck sentiment.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 17:05
PB Sheller on Time>(Sheller on Time):
Also: Sheller is God.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 16:59
Donald @Home>(@Home):
It's not nice to devalue your currency Mr. President.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 16:57
Mike Sheller Back to Front>(Back to Front):
FRONT: In answer to your very intriguing question ( and thank you very much for having directed it to me ) Where does all the unused electricity go? - It goes back into the Dow Jones Utility Average. Have you seen it lately. Energized, I would say. Soon approaching electrified? See my latest ASTROLOGICAL INVESTOR fun feature at entitled TRADING THE RHINO. There are bulls, and there are bears. And then there are Rhino's. Find out what the Rhino in US Bonds may be saying about lower interest rates ahead! And it's all FREE, at Gold-Eagle.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 16:56
PB ...>(...):
I have just read Friend of Kitco's 10am post and have come to the conclusion that he is trying to get us to think that there is a concerted disinformation strategy going on here in order to get us to lose faith in the free exchange of ideas. Which makes me wonder: who does he work for? ;- )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 16:50
Donald @Home>(@Home):
( Japanese cement makers fighting deflation )

Major cement makers to reduce output to
buoy prices
Chichibu Onoda Cement Corp., Sumitomo Osaka Cement Co., and
Nihon Cement Co. plan to slash cement production by 3-10% starting
October. The major cement makers hope the cuts will help stem price

Cement demand has been hit by depressed construction spending in
Japan and the economic turmoil in Southeast Asia is clouding the export
outlook. Demand for cement fell year on year every month from April
through August and the slump is forecast to continue through next year,
according to an industry study.

Chichibu Onoda plans to cut output by 10%, beginning with a 5%
year-on-year reduction from 1.7 million metric tons to 1.6 million in
October, with the rest to follow towards the end of the year. The firm
hopes to reduce its inventory from 900,000 to 800,000 tons.

Nihon Cement will also reduce its output from October by some 5%
year on year.

Sumitomo Osaka will cut cement output to 3.8 million tons in
October-December, down 3% year on year. The firm will reduce output
at inland plants, which lack cost competitiveness. Robust exports have
kept Sumitomo's inventory surpluses below those at other firms.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 16:44
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Janet Reno tired of being a punching bag orders Clinton investigation.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 16:42

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 16:41
Skylark Reaching for the Berries.>(Reaching for the Berries.):
Aurator: Let me see if I can extend that reach without falling in my self. A miner engages in a spot-deferred contract with a dealer for sale of gold with delivery at a later unspecified time. When the contract is entered into, the dealer immediately sells the specified gold if in his inventory, or, if not, leases the gold from another party and then sells the gold. The dealer pays the miner the contango for the gold when delivered consisting of an interest rate on the money earned by the dealer from the funds obtained from selling the gold less a lease charge for carrying the gold until delivery. The time the miner has to deliver the gold is flexible over a time-period determined by the contract. In the other spot deferred context referred to in the article, a party enters into an arrrangement with a dealer to buy gold and establishes with the dealer a gold account and a cash interest bearing account. When gold is purchased by the buyer, the dealer debits the interest bearing account and when gold is sold by the buyer, the dealer credits the account. Any debit interest is paid to the dealer and any credit interest is paid to the Buyer. Now have you reached the berries

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 16:40
Lurker Right Click>(Right Click):
Who Cares: It worked! Thanks!
6Pak: Sorry for the misspell. ( 6Pak, not 6Pack )
All: Great posts!!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 16:34
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Soros Calls Malaysia's Prime Minister a `Menace'

George Soros, the billionaire hedge fund manager, called Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahathir
Mohamad ``a menace '' for contemplating a ban on foreign exchange trading after a slide in the
ringgit. Soros made the comments in response to a suggestion by Mahathir at the annual meeting of
the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Hong Kong that ``currency trading is
unnecessary, unproductive and immoral.'' A showdown between the two has been brewing for
months, since the Malaysian leader singled out Soros as a ``rogue speculator'' responsible for a
plunge in the ringgit in mid-July. Such speculators destroyed in ``a split second'' what it took
Malaysia decades to build, Mahathir said.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 16:22
Donald @Home>(@Home):
FRONT: From the point of view of Physics your kid is correct. In order to cure his philosophical problem turn off the TV when Jesse Helms is on and he will be OK.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 16:08
6pak Geneva + Bonn + London @ Central Banks are very busy = Information overload>(Geneva + Bonn + London @ Central Banks are very busy = Information overload):
September 21, 1997
Foreign investment booms in Latin America

GENEVA ( Reuter ) - Foreign direct investment, or FDI, in Latin America soared 52 percent in 1996, the biggest jump in the developing world, and the boom is likely to continue this year, a United Nations economic report said Sunday.

September 21, 1997
East Europe disappoints world's foreign investors

GENEVA ( Reuter ) - Former communist east and central Europe was the only region of the world where foreign direct investment fell in 1996, the annual World Investment Report of the United Nations trade and development agency UNCTAD
said Sunday.

September 21, 1997
German rate hike would be counter-productive

BONN ( Reuter ) - German Bundesbank council member Klaus-Dieter Kuehbacher said over the weekend that a rise in German interest rates would be counter-productive right now, although the central bank was watching closely for signs of inflation.

September 21, 1997
Wage inflation threatens British economy says survey

LONDON ( Reuter ) - Britain could face spiralling wage inflation caused by a serious skills shortage, according to a survey released Sunday.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 16:03
LGB Bullish Article>(Bullish Article):
Interesting promotional bullish article on Gold & gold stocks relative to current Asian market demand, bullish forces in the market, etc.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 16:02
Glenn XXXX>(XXXX):
As nomercy noted yesterday I did state not to long ago that I was bullish and had bought Gold Calls. Well I should have also stated about 4 or 5 trading days later that I had given up and took a loss on them.

my pocket asked me about his Feb Gold futures purchase. I really do not know. It does not look good on the up side but I also question how low we can go in the near future.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 15:59
aurator aurophile>(aurophile):
I am confounded both by the meaning of this defferred settlement trading account and by the inability to get more information. Can you or anyone assist please :- ) ) [perhaps i'm being a little dim on a Monday morning]
I first mentioned a week ago Date: Sun Sep 14 1997 05:51
original URL

I is grasping for straws
hanging over a cliff
is that a strawberry just out of reach?

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 15:57
6pak Geneva + Hong Kong @ The big push is on = Trouble ahead>(Geneva + Hong Kong @ The big push is on = Trouble ahead):
September 21, 1997
Southeast Asian investment outlook good despite turmoil

GENEVA ( Reuter ) - The United Nations trade and development agency UNCTAD forecast Sunday that foreign direct investment, or FDI, in Southeast Asia would grow this year despite economic slowdown and currency turmoil in the region

September 21, 1997
Dresdner to enter venture with Chinese brokerage house

HONG KONG ( Reuter ) - Germany's Dresdner Bank AG said Sunday that it was about to strike up a joint venture with a Chinese securities company but declined to name the company concerned or give further details.

September 21, 1997
Speculators blamed for Thailand financial troubles

HONG KONG ( Reuter ) - Rich countries blamed Thailand's financial troubles on a weak regional banking system Sunday and Malaysia's leader threatened to clamp down hard on speculators.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 15:55
LGB PM's decoupling from stock market?>(PM's decoupling from stock market?):
Complex up on stock market jitters

By Ross Allen, Bridge News

New York--Sep 19--The NY precious metals complex traded higher after an earnings warning by Union Carbide,
a Dow component stock, made investors jittery about the blue-chip equities. COMEX Dec gold settled up 30
cents at $323.00 on the stock-market jitters and Oct platinum settled up $6.80 at $430.20 per oz after rising
sharply in early trade on fund buying and short-covering. * * *

NYMEX Dec palladium settled up $4.60 at $197.00 per oz on platinum's strength, while Dec silver settled up 2c
at $4.705 per oz on the stock markets' weakness.

Gold was helped by book-squaring, as a 3-day slide in the Dec contract ended Thursday and traders looked to
cover their short positions to take profits before the weekend.

Added to this is the feeling in the market that the metals could begin to decouple from the equities and trade on
their own for several weeks, said Tim Porter, an analyst at Refco. There was no economic data today and not
much coming out next week. People are getting the feeling that the metals could begin to trade on their own again.

Platinum may be gaining support from the NYMEX Platinum Week festivities, during which a number of bullish
demand forecasts have been announced, a trader said. NYMEX's Platinum Dinner was held Thursday in New

However, platinum still looks good technically and that's bringing in specs trading off charts, Porter said. It came
in higher at the open and it's still in an uptrend, Porter said. You've got people with their charts looking to buy

Gold and silver's rise was largely related to the decline in the Dow Jones industrial average, which was last down
15 points at 7906 after trading to a session low of 7865 after the announcement by Union Carbide that its earnings
were likely to grow but were unlikely to meet analyst expectations. Union Carbide stock was down 5 at 48 5/8 in
late trade.


Dec gold ( GCZ7 ) at 323.00, up 30c; RANGE: 325.20-322.50
Dec silver ( SIZ7 ) at 4.705, up 2c; RANGE: 4.740-4.685
Oct platinum ( PLV7 ) at 430.20, up $6.80; RANGE: 431.80-419.50
Dec palladium ( PAZ7 ) at 197.00, up $4.60; RANGE: 197.90-194.00

SPOT PRECIOUS METALS PRICES: Late New York London Late Tokyo Gold ( KRCGL ) 320.60-321.10
321.00-321.30 320.65-321.05 Silver ( KRCSL ) 4.72-4.74 4.70-4.72 4.68-4.70 Platinum ( KRCPL )
429.00-431.00 425.50-427.50 421.00-422.50 Palladium ( KRCPA ) 191.00-193.00 191.50-193.50

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 15:50
aurator @ Babies and Bathwater>(@ Babies and Bathwater):
Mahathir announces curb on *immoral* currency trade

The Malaysian Prime Minister, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, has called for a *ban on currency speculation* and announced that Kuala Lumpur will curb foreign exchange trading.
In another fierce attack on the international financial system, Dr Mahathir told a World Bank seminar this weekend in Hong Kong that currency speculators with huge funds at their disposal had destabilised the Malaysian economy, forcing a 20 per cent drop in the local currency, the ringgit, against the United States dollar.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 15:46
aurophile #>(#):
I had not read last night's posts before my recent effort to WW, but it would not have been different except perhaps to have been more virulent. Nor had I seen all the gushing of praise for noam chomsky. Whatever one thinks of the current goverment of Viet Nam and its precursors, I can never forget the incessant rantings of chomsky in the New York Review of Books throughout that period of the war in Viet Nam. His psychotic hatred of his country made those lesser leftist lights, hanoi jane and daniel schorr, seem almost patriotic. His ( chomsky's ) brilliance is in obfuscating his true colors to the point of appearing meaningful in a post-communist world.

But, judge for yourselves. The following was from an article written by chomsky in 1977. chomsky's position had long been that the splendid communists of Viet Nam and Cambodia would rectify the political sitiuation for all time after the war. Therefore any evidence of retaliation against non-communists in those countries had to be denied or tailored.

....... on April 8, 1977, The Washington Post devoted half a page to photographs believed to be the first of actual forced labor conditions in the countryside of Cambodia [to] have reached the West. The pictures show armed soldiers guarding people pulling plows, others working fields, and one bound man ( It is not known if this man was killed, the caption reads ) . Quite a sensational testimonial to Communist atrocities, but there is a slight problem. The Washington Post account of how they were smuggled out by a relative of the photographer who died in the escape is entirely fanciful. The pictures had appeared a year earlier in France, Germany and Australia, as well as in the Bangkok Post ( April 19, 1976 ) with the caption True or False? In fact, an attempt by a Thai trader to sell these photos to the Bangkok Post was turned down because the origin and authenticity of the photographs were in doubt. The photos appeared in another Thai newspaper two days before the April 4th election. The Bangkok Post then published them, explaining in an accompanying article that Khmer watchers were dubious about the clothes and manner of the people depicted, and quoting other observers who pointed to the possibility that the series of pictures could have been taken in Thailand with the prime objective of destroying the image of the Socialist parties before the election.

This story was reported in the U.S./Indochina Report of the Indochina Resource Center in July 1976, along with the additional information that a Thai intelligence officer later admitted that the photos were indeed posed inside Thailand: 'Only the photographer and I were supposed to know,' he confided to a Thai journalist. The full details were given in the International Bulletin ( April 25, 1977; circulation 6,000 ) . A letter of April 20 to the Washington Post on these points has not appeared. In short, the freedom of the press assures that readers of the International Bulletin will get the facts.

Even if the photographs had been authentic, we might ask why people should be pulling plows in Cambodia. The reason is clear, if unmentioned. The savage American assault on Cambodia did not spare the animal population. Hildebrand and Porter, in their Cambodia: Starvation and Revolution, cite a Cambodian Government report of April 1976 that several hundred thousand draft animals were killed in the rural areas. The Post did not have to resort to probable fabrications to depict the facts. A hundred-word item buried in The New York Times of June 14, 1976, cites an official U.N. report that teams of human buffaloes pull plows in Laos in areas where the buffalo herds, along with everything else, were decimated ( by the American bombing, although this goes unmentioned in the Times. Much the same is true in Vietnam. Quite possibly the U.N. or the Laotian Government could supply photographic evidence, but this would not satisfy the needs of current propaganda.

Thus by positing a hoax by Thai/American sources chomsky was able to put his own hoax over and deflect criticism from the Khmer Rouge, until they became too unpalatable for even the Vietnamese communists. Because of this and similar wiritings, our left-leaning press stayed away from the Khmer Rouge story for several years, which was, of course, chomsky's goal at the time.

Brilliant yes, but beneath contempt. Not an innocent dreamy-eyed lefty. No way: A consistent hatchet man and propandist for the KGB.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 15:45
Mile Sheller’s in-depth research produced insightful analysis of gold’s recent history, current consolidation pattern & bullish prognosis. Dynamite Introduction & charts slow to load BUT a must read:

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 15:44
LIFT-OFF - ABORTED ( - i.e. 'eating crow' )

RE: LIFT-OFF ( - goldfevr's kitco post of 9/17/97, 11:37 ) ( should anyone care to note, take note: )

So pride goeth before 'the fall' : Jumping the gun, and wishful thinking, do not a bull market
make, not even in gold & silver.

Friday's ( 9/19 ) closing market action -- with neither the 'XAU ( -mining stocks ) , nor gold, holding
their early morning rally -- sends me back to the 'drawing boards' doubting-shadows arise
for me, regarding my most likely prematurely bullish - LIFT-OFF claims,
in my kitco post, of 9/19/97, at 11:37 a.m.

I sincerely appreciate my e-mail in-box, filling up, with, as yet un-read replies, to my last Friday
a.m.'s kitco post - LIFT-OFF. I leave them un-read for the moment, in an attempt to remain as
'objective' as I can, as I now recant, or wish to withdraw ( -? -- oops, too late ) ..... -- my 2-cents'
worth -- this past 9/19, a.m.'s kitco post.

So NOW, I'll offer my 1-cent's worth ( - just about, all that's left ) : to address, and redress, my
premature call, regarding gold & silver, and-all. And so, I get to eat some crow, and admit,
my likely, big-blunder, of my last Friday morning mistake.

Here are some of the facts, as I perceive them to be, as of this week-end, and AFTER
FRIDAY'S CLOSE, and after many closing lows.

#1. The 'XAU' closed on it's Friday low, at 94.84, an almost two ( 2 ) full points reversal from it's
intra-day, morning high of 96.60.

#2. ASA closed on it's Fri. low too, @ 28&11/16; and ASA has thus reached a new 52-week
low, upon this - last Friday's close, as well.

#3. While, CDE took a 3.11% decline to 13&5/8, which was, also, on it's low for the day.

#4. HL, closing on it's Fri. low too, is only 1/8th point above it's 52 wk. low.

#5. HM followed suit, in this grande and bearish review, closing @ 12&15/16, it's Friday low too.

#6. PDG, closing @ 15&7/8ths, closed well off it's high, for this past Friday's trade.

#7. DRFNY too, ( with p.e @ 8.29 ) , probes a new 52 wk. low, with an intra-day low of 6&3/8ths.

#8. Gold futures, with very high open interest, @ still over 200,000 contracts ...are leaving
plenty of down-side room -- for pre-mature bulls, stuck in doom & gloom; as the clutches of the
bear, have most likely, not yet released their-snare.

#9. And silver futures persist, with most meager, & un-expanding, open interest continuing;
even after eight weeks' or more, of upside rally-ing.

Conclusion-- For these 9 reasons, and more; with the benefit of a clearing week-end view, &
review : LIFT-OFF is perhaps best aborted, while I eat a little more crow ..... ( - now, wouldn't
ya' know ! ) . And, who knows....? My 'put' 'hedges' may yet redeem me, and let me 'grow'.

So I offer all this,
that I might redress
a grievance borne
by my posting my kitco post of last Friday's morn.

It was with my impatient jump of the gun,
and it was 'hidden' in my wishful-thinking's unthinking thought;
and in nothing more, or nothing less,
for I was not under, any duress.

And thus, could I erase, & re-write, and post it, all-over-again;
a revised 'kitco post', named as LIFT-OFF, I might have offered, instead -- in a more prudent
version -- perhaps as the following:

Is it here, and now? Are we, 'at last', at lift-off, for these precious metals.....?

A 'reverse head-&-shoulders' technical chart pattern, may be forming/completing, in key stocks
such as ABX & others. This possible pattern, is to be watched for; as I've mentioned in previous
kitco posts.

The 'XAU' appears to have had a good shake-out from the 100 level down to the 90 area, and is
now rebounding to 96+. IF it could gather upside momentum here, and IF it pushes on thru the
100 level, and then continues higher, we will most likely witness a sustained, trade-able,
intermediate bull-market-move in the precious metals. This would be the first such move, since
the first quarter of '95, and again - since the 4th quarter of '95.

Here at the beginning of fall, and the end of summer, of 1997, we may be at the dawn of the next
bull market chapter in the metals..... this could be LIFT-OFF....but only time will tell. The 4
times a year, of the seasons changing, often offer turning points, in trading markets. And if not,
then such periods often offer 'acceration' & increased volatility, in trending markets.

( ah, but for the blessings of 20-20 hindsight, delivered in advance )
( for your reference, if interested - here is my original Fri. a.m. kitco post: )

Date: Fri Sep 19 1997 11:37
David ( ) :
LIFT-OFF ! -- My perspective ( 2-cents' worth ? ) here, is that we are at lift-off, for the
precious metals. Key mining stocks, such as ABX & others, have completed their reverse
head-and-shoulders chart patterns.
My kitco post of some weeks ago referred to the importance of the completion of this
technical chart pattern, before a sustained upside move for the metals was likely. The 'XAU'
has had a good, and probably a 'final' shake-out, for many months to come, from the 100
level, down to almost 90.
It is now stubbornly gathering momentum on the upside, currently at 96+, for a lift-off. As it
moves through the 100 level, and begins to accelerate, we will witness a sustained bull move
in the four precious metals - gold, silver, platinum, & paladium, and in related mining stocks.
Here, at the end of summer, and the beginning of fall, 1997, we are at the beginning of the
first enduring, intermediate bull-market move, in precious metals, since the first quarter
of '95, and again, since the 4th quarter of '95. We are at lift-off.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 15:41
6pak USofA Dollar Strength @ Yen Weakness>(USofA Dollar Strength @ Yen Weakness):
September 21, 1997
G7 content with foreign exchange status quo say analysts

LONDON ( Reuter ) - The Group of Seven's assertion that excessive depreciation of currencies is undesirable shows policymakers are satisfied with the status quo in foreign exchange rates, analysts said Sunday.

The current strength of the dollar makes U.S. exports to Japan more expensive, whilst allowing Americans to buy Japanese goods at lower prices, widening the trade gap between the two countries.

Judging by the lack of any implicit reference to dollar strength and yen weakness it looks as if G7 finance ministers are reasonably comfortable with current rates, said Adrian Owens,international economist at Julius Baer Investments here.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 15:34
6pak Thiessen @ Bank of Canada (MAI = Fast Track = To Hell with the costs)>(Thiessen @ Bank of Canada (MAI = Fast Track = To Hell with the costs)):
September 21, 1997
Bank of Canada says tighter policy no growth drag

HONG KONG ( Reuter ) - The Bank of Canada expects a shift towards tighter monetary policy to have little effect on the country's growth rates, which are expected to outpace those of the world's seven richest nations in 1997 and 1998.

We've been pressing pretty hard on the monetary accelerator, and as momentum in the economy builds up and as the amount of fiscal restraint in the economy gradually eases, there is less need for monetary stimulus, Thiessen told reporters following the meeting of the G7 finance ministers.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 15:28
Who Cares Frames Version - Add URL>(Frames Version - Add URL):

Lurker - do a right-click on the current frame that you want

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 15:28
6pak Surprise @ Wall Street>(Surprise @ Wall Street):
September 21, 1997
Wall Street fears unpleasant surprises

NEW YORK ( Reuter ) - U.S. stocks could sneak higher this week, possibly pushing the Dow Jones industrial average to new highs, but Wall Street will look over its shoulder for any unpleasant surprises that could rouse the bears.

It's very clear in even carefully worded comments that relations between the U.S. and Japan are slipping, said Johnson. You don't want to see U.S. and Japanese cooperation break down because they have a sustantial position in U.S. Treasury bonds.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 15:24
Lurker Bart>(Bart):
Bart, I like the new frames version. It's great to have PM prices which are updated while you watch. The only thing I'm having trouble with is being able to bookmark all those URL's Donald, Nomercy, and 6-Pack post. In the past, I'd follow the link then bookmark it for latter reading. With the frames version, I can't do this. Instead of bookmarking the linking URL, it bookmarks Kitco's URL. Is there something I could do differently to correct this problem? Thanks for the site!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 15:17
Front Niner & MikeS. & Donald>(Niner & MikeS. & Donald):


Thanks very much for the MaxMTU site posting. It really works as you mentioned . Marvellous eh!


Mike I noticed you brought up the topic of electricity last night. Perhaps you could tell me something that has bothered me for a while. Where does all the unused electricity go? I think I'm getting charged for the unused stuff at my meighbours as well as my own but I have no real proof just yet. Anyway, if you could explain, I'd sure help. Thanks ... Oh and Donald, there's no such thing as gravity, my kid says the world sucks!



Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 15:10
Donald @Home>(@Home):
( Thailand had a secret account like Nick Leeson )
World economy: Thai crisis highlights
lessons of Mexico


In Hong Kong next week the handling of south-east Asia's currency
crisis will be under scrutiny. Robert Chote, Economics Editor:,
examines the arguments

No-one in the international economic establishment was naive enough to
believe that Mexico's financial collapse in 1995 would be the last of its

Several safeguards were adopted in an attempt to avoid a repetition, but
the recent crises in Asia and elsewhere confirm that nothing offers
complete protection from bad policy and bad luck. The string of
devaluations, speculative attacks and stock market slumps which followed
the collapse of the Thai baht in July demands that we ask whether the
lessons of Mexico were learned and applied as carefully as they should
have been.

There are three dimensions: prediction, prevention and response.

Were the signs of trouble spotted earlier in Asia than they were in
Mexico? Were Asian policymakers advised sensibly how to avoid a
crisis? And, once disaster had struck, did the international financial
institutions do what they could and should have done to limit the damage?

Prediction first. Mexico's crisis caught most financial market participants
and international bureaucrats by surprise, but the portents of trouble in
south-east Asia were visible well in advance. Over-investment fuelled a
spurt in economic growth until 1995, eventually resulting in excessive
domestic demand and ballooning current account deficits. These were
comfortably financed by capital flows from abroad, driven in turn by rapid
growth, financial sector deregulation and stable exchange rates.

But the inflow of capital kept interest rates lower than domestic economic
conditions warranted. Short-term lending fuelled an unsustainable property

Growth was also supported until 1995 by the weakness of the dollar, to
which several south-east Asian currencies were pegged. As the dollar
strengthened, so their competitiveness relative to Japan was eroded. With
China's vast manufacturing capacity coming on stream, longer-term doubts
about south-east Asia's competitiveness in world markets were also being

Events began to come to a head when weakening US demand for
electronic goods contributed to an export slowdown last year just as the
region's banks were undermined by excess supply in the property market.
Thailand was particularly vulnerable as many of its companies had
borrowed heavily abroad.

On July 2 the authorities gave up defending the baht's dollar link. But, as
this drama was unfolding, what was the IMF saying and doing? Not
enough, according to William Cline, chief economist at the
Washington-based Institute for International Finance.

It does not look as though we have made a tremendous amount of
progress in the early warnings provided to the markets by the Fund, he

More needs to be done.

But there is always tension between what the Fund can say to member
governments and what it can say to the markets. If it is too frank, it risks
triggering the very crises it seeks to prevent. In this case the IMF did warn
in public and in private.

In a confidential report to its interim ministerial committee in April 1996,
IMF management outlined the worries which they had shared privately
with Asian governments over the previous year. They had told the
authorities in Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea and Thailand that rapid demand
growth had exhausted the spare capacity in their economies and that
overheating was imminent.

The Malaysians and Indonesians insisted that investment had created
sufficient capacity for their economies to sustain further rapid growth.

The Koreans said tightening policy was politically impossible at a time
when clear signs of inflation had not yet emerged. Malaysia, Indonesia,
Thailand, Korea and the Czech Republic all resisted the IMF's advice to
raise interest rates.

In many countries the IMF also argued that the exchange rate should be
allowed to rise in the face of capital inflows. But concerns about the effect
on the competitiveness of the export sector, which had been the engine of
high growth rates, were generally evident, the report said.

Warnings not to rely on capital controls except as a last resort and
temporary response also met with an unenthusiastic response.

The overall impression was that the IMF had erred on the side of caution,
while the governments characteristically had not.

Given the priority attached to high growth rates to raise living standards,
the authorities may be cautious about tightening policy on the basis of
growth forecasts and uncertain estimates of potential before there is hard
evidence in price and external sector data, the report argued.

It is not surprising, therefore, to find differences between the Fund and
member countries about the risks of imminent overheating.

The IMF's latest annual report, published last week, provides a
bowdlerised account of the Fund's consultations with national authorities
over the past year. Its account of the Thai consultation, completed in July
1996, is telling.

The IMF's executive directors noted the emergence of overheating and
Thailand's slow progress in reducing its current account deficit.
Nonetheless, they praised the authorities consistent record of sound
macroeconomic policies, noting that policy had tightened as inflation and
the current account worsened.

But the directors warned that the rise in the current account deficit had
increased Thailand's vulnerability to economic shocks and adverse shifts in
market sentiment.

They also noted that controls on capital inflows were not an effective
substitute for more fundamental policies over the medium term.

While the stability of the baht had served the economy well, directors
recommended a greater degree of exchange rate flexibility to improve
monetary autonomy and to reduce the incentive for short-term capital

In November last year, Michel Camdessus, the IMF's managing director,
stepped up the warning.

Speaking in Jakarta, he told Asian policymakers that their big current
account deficits and the fragility of their banking systems were the two
financial problems you can and must overcome.

When short-term capital floods into an economy with a weak financial
system it is important to take appropriate action promptly before the
situation deteriorates to the point that policymakers are reluctant to tighten
policies for fear of intensifying banking sector problems, the managing
director added.

Mr Camdessus urged further measures to improve government finances,
including lower military spending, better tax administration and
strengthening the financial position of regional government and public
enterprises. He noted that fiscal consolidation in Indonesia had provided
greater scope for short-term exchange rate flexibility, although he did not
comment on the wisdom of currency pegs per se.

Given these pronouncements, it is difficult to argue the Fund was asleep on
the job. Its warnings were ignored. Senior officials believe it would have
been possible for Thailand to turn back from the brink of a crisis as late as
February, but the authorities could not or would not do so.

Other countries were quicker to act: Fund staff warned Hungary in early
1995 that it was heading for crisis, but the authorities averted disaster with
a tough austerity package. Still, the Fund has also given countries a couple
of false alarms.

Let me be blunt, Mr Camdessus said after Thailand's $16.7bn rescue
package was assembled last month.

Thailand's problems could have been corrected at much less cost to the
economy, and to the economies of neighbouring countries, if they had been
addressed in a timely manner.

Stanley Fischer, his deputy, conceded that accurate information on the
amount of bad loans at Thai banks had not been available, but even so
markets kept financing Thailand longer than they should.

Measures to improve the quality of economic and financial data were a key
outcome of the Mexican post-mortem. The Fund's special data
dissemination standard sets a benchmark for the coverage, frequency and
timeliness of official data, to which 42 countries had signed up by July.

Thailand was among them, but as early subscribers have been allowed
some time to get their data up to scratch it would be unfair to write it off
already. The Thai crisis may, however, result in the standards being made
more demanding.

Unbeknown even to the finance ministry, the Thai central bank made
forward transactions of $23.4bn in the currency market, disguising the
state of its reserves.

To prevent a repetition, subscribers may have to publish net reserves data.
Few industrial countries do this let alone emerging market ones. But do the
statistics provide reliable early warnings of crises?

Morris Goldstein, at the Institute of International Economics, argues that
real exchange rate appreciation, export growth, equity prices, output
growth, real interest rates and the ratio of money supply to reserves all
provide warning signals and that they were flashing red for Thailand in

But even the most reliable single indicator overvaluation of the real
exchange rate provides false alarms and misses some crises.

The timing of crises can be a function of financial market psychology as
much as economic fundamentals. But there are clearly some danger signals
which policymakers ignore at their peril. Mexico had taught the Fund to
pay more attention to these and to financial market movements.

So much for prediction, what about prevention?

Since Mexico the international institutions have consistently emphasised
the importance of sound financial systems. They propose that the Basle
Committee should draw up banking standards appropriate to emerging
markets, the IMF police them and the World Bank help countries make

Asia's crisis will give this agenda a push.

The crisis has also raised concerns that the Fund may contribute to future
problems if it enshrines its enthusiasm for liberalising capital flows in its
Articles of Agreement. A report to Commonwealth finance ministers
concluded that capital flows can bring substantial benefits to an economy
by promoting growth and investment and that controls on them provide
short-term relief at best.

But it added that there were several steps a country should take before
liberalising its capital account: cutting government borrowing, inflation and
current account deficits to safe levels; strengthening domestic financial
markets; and tackling other structural economic distortions.

A more fundamental question is whether emerging market countries should
peg their exchange rates. The IMF's executive directors have become
much less enthusiastic about fixed exchange rate regimes, although some
senior Fund staff remain to be convinced that floating rate regimes avoid
the build-up of dangerous current account deficits.

Most economists still accept that exchange rate pegs can be the quickest
and most effective way to break self-fulfilling expectations of high inflation
in economies where macroeconomic policy has long been lax. But, as
Frederic Mishkin of Columbia University points out, exchange rate pegs
can be dangerous in emerging market economies where investors prefer
the security of short-dated debt and borrowing in a foreign currency.

Raising interest rates to defend the currency has a big effect on demand
because of the amount of short-term borrowing, often putting weak
banking systems under more pressure. Then if the exchange rate peg is
broken, devaluation raises the cost of servicing foreign currency debt
significantly and further depresses the economy. Ideally, a country should
prepare an exit strategy to escape its peg, but this may impose heavy
political costs.

Some leading central bankers believe that in recent years the Fund's
position on exchange rate regimes has managed to be doctrinaire and
inconsistent at the same time, with views differing from senior manager to
senior manager and department to department.

The prospect of European monetary union may also have had a malign
influence: Mexico's financial crisis was made in the Fund and made by its
European directors, who insisted on a fixed exchange rate, argues one

There is clearly growing disenchantment with currency pegs in the Fund,
but officials are wary of being driven too much by fashion. Judging whether
the right lessons were learned from the Mexican bail-out when Thailand's
rescue package was assembled may be premature.

The country's financial system remains fragile and there has been alarm in
the Fund that it did less to ease tensions in the rest of the region than
management hoped. Agreement on the Fund's response was achieved
more quickly and with less acrimony than in Mexico's case, helped by the
fact that the Philippines gave the untested emergency financing
mechanism a trouble-free dry run.

Rescue packages also seem to be developing a strong regional flavour: the
US contribution was central to the Mexican package, while Japan and
other Asian countries offered billions of dollars for Thailand. In both cases,
however, public opinion would now be wary of a repetition.

These regional consortia also pose awkward questions. Who would lead a
European rescue? And who would save orphans without a
deep-pocketed guardian India, for example?

Asia's financial crisis suggests that many lessons were learned from
Mexico, some could not be applied quickly enough and others remain to
be drawn.

In Hong Kong the Fund will strengthen its resources, tighten its data
standards, exhort banking reform and preach the eternal virtues of sound
macroeconomic management.

Errant policymakers will be warned they they cannot expect to be bailed
out every time a crisis comes along, but some investors may continue
pumping capital in to risky economies in the expectation that there is a
good chance they will be.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 15:05
Hillary Clinton oldman, tsk,tsk>(oldman, tsk,tsk):
Agree or disagree with WW, but Chomsky is brilliant. I have seen more than enough reasons not to trust a lot of the politicians here, and there are some devious agendas taking place behind the scenes.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 14:58
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Here is a sample from one on the list. Tokyo Commodity Exchange.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 14:48
Donald @Home>(@Home):
I stumbled across a list of links to web sites of about 50 futures exchanges around the world. If you have already registered with Financial Times you will have access now. Otherwise you will need to register. There is no charge.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 14:48
vronsky PART 3 (September 22, 1997) LBMA EXPOSÉ: A Collective-Mind Analysis - Compiled by Red Baron >(PART 3 (September 22, 1997) LBMA EXPOSÉ: A Collective-Mind Analysis - Compiled by Red Baron ):
London Bullion Marketing Association is best described as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.” Daily gold trading NEARLY TWICE South Africa’s annual production:

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 14:47
George Cole fast track impact>(fast track impact):

Sunday September 21 12:23 PM EDT

Investment pact may hurt Third World -- think-tank

WASHINGTON, Sept 21 ( Reuter ) - A proposed international accord on foreign investment could pose a serious threat to
the social, economic and environmental welfare of developing nations, a U.S. think-tank said on Sunday.

The Washington-based Council on Hemispheric Affairs said the proposed multilateral agreement on investment ( MAI )
could force developing nations to lower worker health and living standards, as well as ease environmental regulations, in
order to attract foreign capital.

``The proposed multilateral agreement on investment inevitably will have an epochal impact on the worlds poor, even
though much of this will be behind the scenes,'' the non-partisan think-tank said.

The proposed agreement is being negotiated in the 29-nation Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
( OECD ) , the so-called ``rich man's club'' of economic powers. The accord aims to liberalize and protect investment, and to
make it as easy to invest abroad as it is at home.

The Council on Hemispheric Affairs accused the world's richest nations of keeping developing countries out of the

``Less developed nations have been all but excluded from contesting many of the pact's most controversial provisions,'' it

Although accession to the pact will be voluntary, the council said, ``This becomes an almost irrelevant distinction because of
the Third World's craving for foreign capital and new investment.

``Inevitably, less developed countries will feel coerced into accepting the terms of an agreement which is elective only in
name,'' the council said.

More news for related categories: stock capsules, treasury.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 14:36
George Cole market outlook>(market outlook):
OLDMAN: The market does look higher short-term with fast track coming down the pike, but a MAJOR move up is unlikely. Furthermore, I do not think Rubin and Greenspan want this market to continue surging by any means.

If I were Rubin, I would be trying to engineer an ORDERLY 15-20% drop over the next year or so. That way, there is a reasonable chance the bull could be resurrected in 1999 and the all important 2000 election year. But if the current blowoff continues straight up to 10,000 or more, the odds of a very DISORDERLY Puetz type crash or lengthy SECULAR BEAR MARKET will grow immensely. I believe the mandate of the PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM is only to head of DISORDERLY DECLINES ( crashes ) , not to prevent normal bear markets.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 14:31
Donald @Home>(@Home):
US: Fed struggling to redefine inflation

Originally published: MONDAY SEPTEMBER 8 1997

By Bruce Clark in Washington

Even with the prized goal of stable prices discernible on the horizon, US
monetary authorities say they face a long, uphill task trying to pin down the
precise meaning of inflation at a time of fast-rising asset values and
technological change.

The example of Japan in the 1980s, when the price of goods and services
was level but asset prices soared unsustainably, is being studied as a
warning against over-simplified views of inflation, according to Alan
Greenspan, governor of the Federal Reserve.

In a speech on Friday night to Stanford University's Centre for Economic
Policy Research, he said monetary policy for 15 years had been aimed at
bringing the anti-inflation fight to its logical conclusion, price stability. We
are not quite there yet, but we trust it is on the horizon. Evidence was
mounting that stable prices were a necessary pre- condition for long-term,
sustainable growth, the fundamental aim of macroeconomic policy, he

But beyond that general statement, Mr Greenspan warned, there lay
enough difficult issues of concept and measurement for policy-makers and
academicians to keep us occupied for the next 15 years or more. The
governor said the Fed had chosen product prices as its primary focus
because it was impossible for monetary policy to track both that indicator
and the price of assets like equities and property at the same time.

But the authorities were trying to understand how asset prices affected the
economy, and whether asset prices could be ignored except insofar as they
affected product prices - an issue on which history is somewhat

The simple notion of price has turned decidedly complex, Mr
Greenspan commented, noting that advances in fields ranging from
information technology to medicine had made it difficult to compare like
with like over time.

The governor reiterated warnings that tightness in the US labour market
made it necessary to remain on the alert against resurgence of inflation in
the short term. He also remained agnostic on some of the debates about
the US economy - including the central question of whether the country
had entered a new era of inflation-free growth based on productivity gains.

It was true, Mr Greenspan said, that the economy had recently shown a
remarkable confluence of robust growth, high resource utilisation and
damped inflation. It was difficult to avoid the conclusion that output per
hour was rising significantly faster than official measures of productivity

But it remained an open question, the governor insisted, whether
productivity growth was accelerating - and the debate over whether a
new era had begun hinged in part on this intangible factor.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 14:20
Donald @Home>(@Home):
South Africa 20/09/97: Sharp fall for


Industrial shares in Johannesburg fell steeply as the September equity future
expired; at the close of trading the all-share index was off 14.60 at 7,177.2.

Volumes were heavy throughout the session. The industrial index lost 59.4 at
8,744.4. Iscor retreated R3.00 to R313 in 7.5m shares traded. Golds ended
16.4 lower at 899.93, a 54-month low.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 14:18
Who Cares Extreme Irony>(Extreme Irony):

There is extreme irony in that Sam has incurred those liabilities
in a time of plenty, convincing everyone that in a time of need,
there will be a repeat of government involvement. : )

Nobody has any rebuttal to my Things to Do in D.C. post, or
John Law versus Greenspan. I would have thought that *someone*
would argue the opposite side. : )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 14:13
Donald @Home>(@Home):
WHO CARES: There is irony here. Sam had no vested interest in the 1929 crash but his vested interest in the next one is precisely because he sought to mitigate the effect of post 1929.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 14:11
LGB @Bullish Gold Signal>(@Bullish Gold Signal):
Fellow Gold Bugs. Last night I had a dream that gold went to $400 + virtually overnight during October. I believe that this was more than just a dream, but a prophetic vision! Because of the position of Mars relative to Venus, and the fact that we're now less than 7 days from the Lunar eclipse, this can only mean that indeed, Gold will be at $400 + by Octobers end. Don't say I didn't give advance notice of this extremely bullish event. It was a Split second in eternity.... ( In my vision, silver of course reached $7.00 per ounce and Platinum was around $480 )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 14:04
LGB @Friend of Kitco>(@Friend of Kitco):
Friend re your 10:48 900 word post. We're all going to miss your posts now that you're gone. It was refreshing to have someone post humorous satrire about conspiracies against gold and such. You're clever at generating the laughs that your obviously tongue in cheek posts induce.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 13:59
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Korea has slowest groth rate in 16 years.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 13:57
Neil Collett in Jo'burg>(in Jo'burg):
EVOLUTION AND THE MARKETS. What can we expect from this perfectly evolved market that can only go up? We are currently stuck in an era where social Darwinism ( the survival of the fittest ) is the order of the day. Few would disagree that competition fosters greater innovation and diversity in both economies and nature. Also most of us accept that the ultimate goal is PERFECTION - in nature an animal or plant that is perfectly adapted to its environment, in economies the Goldilocks variety which just keeps growing with no inflation.

There is however one fundamental flaw in this thinking and I will start with nature. Think of an animal that is perfectly adapted to its surroundings - perfectly camouflaged against the vegetation to protect it from predators, digestive system perfectly adapted to the fruits and prey available - a true miracle of evolution. Now move it from that environment - it withers and dies. It is so perfectly adapted that it is vulnerable outside it habitat.

( A good example of this is a failed project to reduce the number of flies in Western Australia. Thousands of South African dung beetles were let loose to roll up all the sheep dung in which flies thrive. The dung beetles did not last long as in South Africa they rely on a tiny mite which lives in the joints of their tough armor. Secretions from the mites act as lubricant in the joints. So in Australia the dung beetles literally seized up and died. They were too well adapted to South African conditions )

The above paradox of perfection is not widely recognized but should be obvious if we investigate how well human beings are adapted to their environments. Without explanation it would be fair to say that in the wild we are pretty pathetic compared with other animals - our success lies not in perfect evolution and adaptation but in our intelligent ability to adapt our environment to suit us and to adapt to rapidly changing conditions.
It is hard to accept conceptually that perfection will forever remain elusive but that is the way of the world.

Now to the markets. A perfect market is one which just keeps going up. The environment is certain, business has evolved to take advantage of all opportunities. Growth is high and inflation is low. Far more is certain and the market becomes a one sided affair as it is obvious that it is going up. Non-believers who speculate against it are wiped out until only the better adapted believers survive.

Now change the environment. Start perhaps with a small devaluation of the dollar and a small hike in interest rates. Certain businesses are vulnerable to this and their shares start to fall in line with revised earnings. But no short speculators are around to take profits and lend support. The system has become fragile as perfection is approached. The markets ability to adapt to the change has been lost as no short sellers take profits. This sets off the jitters as the true risk of the system is exposed and more start to sell. Again no one had dared to sell short and no buying support is at hand.

Puetz highlighted the fact that short interest has fallen considerably over the last 3 months and this is exactly the phenomenon he is warning against. When the short sellers have left risk takes on a whole new meaning.
The market has lost its ability to deal with bad news - and a crash results.

Keep up the philosophical postings - it is the stuff of true goldbugs and wealthy investors.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 13:54
Who Cares Government Involvement>(Government Involvement):

Donald - Yes, I agree. In 1929, Uncle Sam had no direct vested
interest in the effects of a crash.

Now that Sam is a huge, net borrower, he stands to lose quite a
bit - real estate guarantees, banking guarantees, etc. It is
in Sam's own interest to shift the fundamentals so that they
FAVOR borrowers.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 13:53
Donald @Home>(@Home):
China admits that 30% of state firms are bankrupt. ( EB: now we know what they really need the $600 billion for )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 13:42
2 @the billows>(@the billows):
Man, the ole Kitco site was smokin' last nite! Who needs professional football when we got the clash of the Titans? Ultimate fightin... Keep it up. I respect any opinion formed over a period of five years or more.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 13:30
LGB @WW>(@WW):
Help me, help me, I'm being exploited by my place of business. They pay me meager wages, barely into the 6 figures, and then they have the audacity to only allow me 20 paid vacation days, 10 sick days, and 10 paid holidays a year. To top this off I have to contribute $100 a month toward my $600 family health care premiums, they only match .40 cents on the dollar in my 401K contributions, put only a pittance in an additional pension fund, and only have a handful of other benefits like mental health care, and such. If only I could convince them to stop taking 50% of my pay for government programs and instead take say 90% of my pay for the govt. , who would then generously help to stop my exploitation, I'd be SO DMAN much better off!!

LGB the Worker Bee

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 13:26
JTFlick @Freedom>(@Freedom):
Aurophile/WW: I am going to assume that both of you live in North America. Aren't we lucky that we don't live in SE Asia, where most countries are far more dependent on foreign trade than those of us in North America. Our greatest dependency is on energy. Look what 1$/day labor in China has done to the economies of Korea Malasia,Phillipines,Thailand, even Japan!
I need some help from fellow Kitcoites on this point, but I think we may be talking about 1/3 of the world economy. I wonder what Jin would say about these comments.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 13:03
WW @NE>(@NE):
These trade treaties are to make it easier for capital to flow over boarders. It is an attempt to raise living stds in third world countries. Only problem is it isnt. The companies are not going to these countries so they can pay higher wages. You are right if anything starts to go wrong with this system Bye Bye Bull/in more than one respect.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 12:56
aurophile @>(@):
WW: Our fellow poster, Oldman, has convincingly shown that Klinton is the biggest and best capitalist--along with his handler, Rubin--the world has ever known. Only a slickster who mouths left-wing platitudes could pull off the second phase of the castration of the workers in all countries. After he proved his credentials in arkansas, he was tapped by Rubin to be our leader. I remember when Rubin went around the country in 1991 tapping the venture capitalists--every manjack of 'em conservatives-- and other sources of ready money. They were promised exactly what they got: the apotheosis of laissez faire, free trade, and the greatest bull market in history. I wasn't bright enough at the time to sign over my credit cards to the democratic national committee like the wise ones did.
If I read Oldman correctly, the current campaign to dump Gore will be followed by the Hillary candidacy. There is no way the bull market can be kept going otherwise. It's the least we can do.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 12:44
JTFlick @Options>(@Options):
EB: Thanks for the options info! I might actually have enough time to learn about options risk before the next gold rally!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 12:23
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home):
Puetz: Thanks for the newsletter and the great posts here on Kitco. Those prairie potholes are in the Dakotas and Canada. I've been to the Big Easy. Too many progressive types to make it safe. Its spelled Cajun and down here we call the crawfish mud bugs. Ted and the New Englanders should boil their larger cousin, the lobster, the way they do them here. Yum! I'm also a Cubs and Bears fan having been raised in the windy city. I have a theory though, that the world will end five minutes after the Cubs win a pennant. Luckily it would appear that we are safe for some time to come.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 12:23
Ted @ Bernard Baruch>(@ Bernard Baruch):
Bernard Baruch:Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top.This can't be done- except by liars... Baruch sold his stock holdings before the crash of 29....29 black WAS a winner.....

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 12:21
WW @JtFlick>(@JtFlick):
I am on your wave length I think the pendulum has swung too far toward capital and Our rights as worker are threatened. The exploitation of labor is going on worldwide. Do they want anything about child labor in Treaties NOOOO! Many people in our country are enamored by idiots like Rush Limbaugh who has everything to do with disempowerment as opposed to what he would have you believe.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 12:18
aurophile ~>(~):
Friend of Kitco: Please cite your in-sight on this site, often...:- ) ) ) //I try to avoid giving in to longer range conspiracy theories as it is so ennervating. PLus which, assuming that such theories are valid, they are already in ( or perhaps ARE ) the market, such that technical analysis will deal with them in its benign and neutral way. Nevertheless I do agree that there have been at least SOME disinformation campaigns caried out here, although mostly short term and related to a specific unloading of gold by some private parties looking for buyers. It is for this reason that many do not post at the primary investor chat sites anymore, or not often, and why email is making a big comeback. Your signal-to-chat ratio ( a brilliant observation! ) reflects this development. Since I see pie-throwing as an art as well as a sport, I hope you will reconsider your self-exile and get a little more specific on the fruits of your research.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 12:16
EB Tony Gwynn>(Tony Gwynn):
I am NOT worthy. You are a demi-god. I am NOT worthy...


kick some Giant butt!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 12:16
vronsky Inger Letter Forecast - Sept 22 -Server's Morning Sickness Fixed>(Inger Letter Forecast - Sept 22 -Server's Morning Sickness Fixed):
Due to lack of momentum recent market action is characterized as having a CANINE AROMA, leaving open possibility next couple weeks the market may try going to the dogs:

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 12:15
JTflick @Freedom>(@Freedom):
WW: Re support of the American worker. I consider myself an American worker, and I support them! We all need freedom to develop our lives both professionally, intellectually, and spiritually. What we don't need is big labor, big government, and big business ( read socialism ) to control our lives. We also need truth in our news media - now unfortunately going the way of socialism and big business. Power should never be concentrated in the hands of a few individuals.
Our strength in this country is in the American worker. Have you read the Celestine Prophesies? This book is in parable form, but it does reveal why we must not relinquish our freedoms to those who wish to control us. I am in favor of government to set some rules for us and defend us, business ( especially the smaller businesses ) for free enterprise, and labor to look after the rights of the American worker, but all of this must be in moderation.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 12:14
EB JTFlick>(JTFlick):

this should work


Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 12:12
EB Mornin' folks>(Mornin' folks):
Donald - 600Bill/China article. Hmmmmmm. Now, Who is the sleeping Giant...and what will happen when they are fully awake and those $1/Day workers start getting paid more. The mind reels... It will be fun at the Markets!

Ted - Did I say 32 Red I thought I said 29 Black ;- ) Mornin' Bro.

Mike/Donald/JTFlick - Time Space Continuum. What would Capn' Picard say ;- ) I dig that stuff...

JTFlick - I trade mostly options ( commodities ) . May I recommend some 'stuff'. This is relatively inexpensive and soon to be Windows compatible. These guys have got it goin' on! Buy now and save... ( i am NOT affiliated ) And these guys are equally tuned: The New Option Secret by David L. Caplan There are countless other valuable trading materials here. Do your homework. It will pay off...maybe : )

A few more Yen things. Remember RJ's YEN/PLAT correlation. Well, check it out again...the PL bull continues...oh my! And didn't I read from a poster here that George Soros 'says' that Yen should be at 130. Well, when he publicly says stuff like that then I will do the opposite, eh? I see Yen at 100-110... where is it NOW...oh my! You would like me to back up my thoughts with facts and data can't do it...won't do it...sorry, I just FEEL IT IN MY BONES ;- )

away... to the rhuematologist

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 11:51
JTFlick @NewPhysics>(@NewPhysics):
Donald,all Re: 9/21/97 11:16AM post. The IMF and the BIS sure like to warn us about inflation! Are they about to spend more US dollars to bail out SE Asia?

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 11:49
Gold is usually week around g-7. But also whenever Greenspan is going to make an important speech or the Fed is going to act or not/ It is my recollection that there is weakness. Wasnt Ausiie announcement near FOMC and G-7 and Same for April Raid?

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 11:42
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Pakistan to privatize 5 state owned banks. 50,000 employees to lose jobs.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 11:41
Ted @ capebreton absurdity>(@ capebreton absurdity):
Cape Breton,home of the Sydney tar ponds ( worst toxic waste site in Canada,that still flows into Sydney harbor ) and ongoing coal ( high sulphur ) mining,is against gold mining:
With the highest unemployment rate in Canada,practically any new business is still opposed at virtually every opportunity in Cape Breton...Why work when Ottawa practices a policy of APPEASEMENT towards our depressed ( ? ) little Island....

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 11:35
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Much bad debt has been added to the books of Japanese banks in recent weeks. Japan could be on verge of recession. Yen could go to 127 per dollar.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 11:32
EB ...........Onion soup..........>(...........Onion soup..........):
Friend - When life gives you onions ( layers ) ... make onion soup. And don't EVER forget to take your medication...

Do you ever get out of the house much Remember to keep an eye on the postman and the milkman for us. I think they are pretty high on the list of DISinformation spreaders. Their ONIONS are THICK with layers...

Mark these words HERE & NOW: you WILL post again! Whatever handle you may be WILL post again... fire the gardener
EB ;- )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 11:24
Donald @Home>(@Home):
China needs to borrow $600 billion for infrastructure improvements.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 11:17
JTFlick @NewPhysics>(@NewPhysics):
Donald, Mike Sheller: I guess I need to catch up to the current time with both of you! Physicists in my opinion don't understand time, but they commonly use the concept of time reversal/symmetry to develop new concepts. If you take Bell's theorem of Quantum mechanics, if I recall correctly, one is forced to conclude that all of the universe is interconnected, past present and future! In fact, some types of information seem to occur instantateously, much faster than the speed of light! Why is it then that we are not all knowing and seeing if this is so? Perhaps we are given time by the supreme being so that we can relate cause and effect, and hence develop our intellects. Just imagine what would happen to an entity -- no matter how intelligent -- if cause and effect were not evident! At some point I hope that we can evolve as a species where time and space will not always limit our activities. Perhaps this has already come to some of us who have extrasensory powers, like my former highschool classmate who told our teacher not to look at the exam while she was taking it, because she then knew the answers. Time will tell!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 11:16
Donald @Home>(@Home):
IMF warns the U.S. about inflation.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 11:08
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Hezbollah threatens Israel with more suicide bombings.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 11:04
George Cole Question>(Question):
If memory serves, the gold price usually has dropped sharply prior to G-7 meetings. If that is so, the fact that gold didn't fall much last week could be VERY SIGNIFICANT. Can anyone confirm or refute my memory on this important point?

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 11:01
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Germany's Waigel Suggests U.S. May Need Higher Interest Rates

German Finance Minister Theo Waigel, in a reference to the strong performance of the U.S.
economy, said countries with high growth rate and high employment may need to increase interest
rates. Waigel told the Interim Committee of the International Monetary Fund that it might take
pre-emptive increases in borrowing costs to get growth back down to sustainable levels and avoid
even higher rates later on.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 10:48
Sincere Posters: It was quiet here yesterday at Kitco. The storms of the last two weeks had blown out. The interchange of ideas and information continued at Kitco in a friendly manner. We could sense the quiet. The disinformation machine that has operated here for many a moon was at a very low level. It had been threatened and was responding in part by laying low. The ratio of sincere posters to disinformation handles was the best it has been in some time. When you have learned to read disinformation and review last weeks posts you will understand why. However deep in the layers of the disinformation onion things were going on, the future was being prepared. This post is anticipated and several defenses are being prepared. Up at the surface the only part of the onion you are aware of unless you are on to their game all seemed quiet. The object of this post is to pull back the veil that hides this disinformation machine so that it will be visible to you. What may follow this post may be hard for Kitco. The machine is being attacked and heavens knows what it may do. But all sincere posters will gain from this in the end. Kitco will be better for it. Once you grasp what has happened it will be exciting information in your quest to understand and profit from gold.

I first visited Kitco over a year ago and was drawn to it. Here was a sight for gold. The quality and number of posts on the precious metals was very good. The signal to chat ratio was very good. By chat I mean posts which while informative and friendly do not bear on the precious metals and related topics. After a few months at Kitco I started a job which allowed me no free time. When the job was over I returned to Kitco. Kitco had changed. Many of the posters I enjoyed were gone. It was true there were new posters I also enjoyed but the trade did not seem even. The signal to chat ratio was much lower. One poster stated that Kitco was now much like any other chat sight. I would not go that far Kitco is still the best but something had been lost. Many of the old posters I felt were negative on gold were still here. Upon thinking about it this seemed strange. Why would someone negative on gold hang on this sight for a year and a half? Because they were waiting to buy? This seemed to be the reason. I started to examine all the posts closely and slowly. Over a couple of weeks several patterns presented themselves. I started to look at posts not so much for what they said but how it was said. I started to pay attention to the interchange between posters. But most important I paid a lot of attention to who or what was being attacked and who was the attacking poster. This was the breakthrough. This was the key to the second layer of the onion. Once the second layer was opened other layers followed. Upon making sure that disinformation was going on, which took several weeks and a lot of archive searches I became mad. How dare they misuse our sight. Later I became aware that this was exciting information. This is a twenty four hour a day seven days a week deal. Think of the expense. Some one is spending a lot of money to convince us not to buy gold. There can only be one reason.

The reason examining attacks works so well to reveal disinformation is that most sincere posters refrain from attacks but the attack is a disinformation staple. Attacks are used for many purposes, as you watch you will be amazed at the number of purposes they serve. As in most facets of disinformation attacks exist at different levels and come in different forms. The more obvious attacks are easy to spot but there are also very subtle ones. When you find an attack ask who is attacking who and what is the reason for the attack. One disinformation handle may attack another always with a reason. Factual information is attacked, often in subtle ways. The disinformation handles are continuously setting each other up in many ways attacks are one method. There is good natured ribbing and there is a subtle attack, sometimes it is difficult to tell them apart but you will learn with practice. Reading disinformation is a lot like learning a foreign language. At first it is all unintelligible, then a few words are learned, then you understand the meaning of a sentence even though you do not understand every word. Soon you are reading in this new language. You will make mistakes so the benefit of the doubt must always be given the poster. Let him talk. He must cross the line many times before you can say with some certainty he is disinformation. Its all probabilities. Although attacks are a never ending blow ups, disruptions, are not. These blow ups as everything in disinformation happen for a reason. After attacks blow ups make the best introduction to disinformation study.

With this I leave you forever. The ball is in your hands now and you will not fail us. Friend of Kitco will never post here again. My work here is done. I have told you of an important discovery I have made about gold and Kito. I have given you a few simple tools with which you can make the same discoveries. The Kitco archives provide a fertile ground in which to use these tools and the more refined ones you will learn as you proceed. The gold disinformation machine is using our Kitco for their own dishonest ends. We can use their dishonesty for our understanding and gain. A fair trade. Take care.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 10:42
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MIKE SHELLER: Did point A and point B exist before there were humans to observe the points? You seem to be agreeing with me, that time is a conceptual invention of humans, not a law of nature.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 10:41
WW @NE>(@NE):
I reviewed the posts of the last 12 hours and do not understand the vitriol against anyone who supports the American worker. Further, there seems to be a pure closed mindedness about the progressive ideas of Chomsky. Many who have achieved success in this country owe it to the social gains made by progressives at the beginning of this century ( that includes you oldman ) Prior to 1900 unless you were part of the elite forget it/ class mobility was very difficult.

Gore is getting it right on punishing companies that inhibit labor organizing but I think it is just to counter the more progressive Gephardt.

Things that empower workers make unnecessary for the govt to outright own enterprises. Every time a new cause of action is created that can be used against employers the workers gain. The Family Medical Leave Act is a great example of a statute creating a new set of federal rights for workers. EEO is also an excellent worker empowering statute.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 10:38
Peutz & Savage thanks for the recognition always appreciated. But now what? Early on this week the Dec S&P should trade down to the 945 area. After which another rally up to last week's highs or evwn the Aug. highs is possible. That next rally if it occurs will be a failure and the market will roll over into the October lows. Any close under 930 in the SPZ projects down to the mid 800's. Any further pull backs in Gold will be held at the 317 area basis front month, Dec Silver should hold the 4.60 area on any pullbacks.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 10:14
Donald @Home>(@Home):
JTFLICK: I don't have the guts to trade that way, I don't know about software that helps but someone here will come to your rescue. Frightening thought indeed. I am a saver type.

About time: What do you mean you wish you knew? I just explained it to you. You now have the answer! We live on a planet that has a gravitational force. Gravity is accumulative. Time is the conceptual invention we devised to calculate how much gravity we have accumulated. All things succumb to accumulated gravity. People take 100 years, rocks take millions etc. When you escape the gravitional pull of the earth you cease to age because you are no longer accumulating gravity.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 10:10
Mike Sheller I didn't know what time it was>(I didn't know what time it was):
JTFLICK, DONALD: It may help to think of time as an expression of what I call Cause and effect consecutiveness. In other words, if this, then that. This is how all manifestation unfolds. All things originate from NO THING as a point. The point, by itself, is both an initiation and a completion. There is no movement, no activity, no time. When ANOTHER point comes into manifestation ( let's call it Point B ) , then MOTION is potentialized. We can now travel from Point A to Point B. This occurs in a straight line, or, more properly, simply a LINE. The movement in direction from point A to point B encompasses the time factor ( as well as the motion factor ) . Point B is the limitation of the extension of that time ( and motion ) factor. ALL manifestation is composed of the interrelationships of countless points. The first thing these points do is create the initial stages of matter. These points manifest from NO THING, and are the glorious mystery of the creation. Hope I haven't been too simple, or too vague. Just a beginning way to think about time, and motion. By the way, the faculty we call REASON is a function of this process ( or, perhaps, more properly this process is a function of REASON ) . Points ( of information ) are processed along a line ( of consecutive cause and effect considerations ) If this, then that... The mind of God is the mjind in Man. We just don't use much of it, distracted as we are with other things down here. ( :- ) )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 09:42
Tony Gwynn @EB>(@EB):
Morning Dude!!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 09:40
Donald @Home>(@Home):
WHO CARES: An afterthought to my sixish post regarding the government involvement in the current mania. During the 1920's mania the government was in rock solid shape, gold backed currency, budget surpluses etc. There was no governmental reason to be involved, for or against, the mania. That could be why there are so many records now being set beyond the 1929 excesses. The government is promoting it for its own purposes. It has a stake in its continuance.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 09:39
Ted @layin my cards on the table>(@layin my cards on the table):
Puetz: You'll be happy ta hear that I sold 728 shares of NES ( @ 39.125 ) on Friday.....a ten+ year holding gone...~poof~ ( thankx Earl! ) slowly building up cash reserves but core holding of DRIP's remain intact..Time ta make some bread.....BBL dudes..

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 09:34
JTFlick @NewPhysics>(@NewPhysics):
Donald: I enjoyed your comments on time. I wish I knew what it was!
Re -- your e-mail to GOLD TRADER.
Can you recommend a textbook or software on options? So far I have been unable to determine risk/reward ratios, and have usually lost money. I make money only when there is no expiration date.
If traders can make money trading gold this way, is that what the CB's are doing? Are they being corrupted by all that wealth they are sitting on, and the desire to make money? Frightening thought!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 09:33
Ted @Miro,DJ,Puetz,Old Man,EB>(@Miro,DJ,Puetz,Old Man,EB):
The Cape Breton Screaming Eagles won their first game as a new franchise ( 5-4 ) Great game!....Miro ( 15:24 ) Yeah, I SHOULD appreciate more what I have here and not lament what I don't ( reliable ISP ) ...DJ ( 19:16 ) Thankx for tryin!..Puetz ( 00:02 ) But who'd they beat ( Ball State fer christ sakes ) ...Oldman ( 00:11 ) Great post!!...Puetz ( 1:28 ) Am as far East as you can get ( can see the most Eastern tip of Nova Scotia ( 1 mile away ) from where I sit ) ....I ain't bashin Indiana as it's the home of Larry Bird + SIG ( my largest electric utility holding ) ...EB ( 2:05 ) 32 red was NOT a winner and neither was I.....when God...when?....the game was super though!!!....

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 09:24
GOLD TRADER in the pit>(in the pit):
Donald - Thank you.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 09:13
JTFlick @Market predictions>(@Market predictions):
Peutz: I have read your numerous posts all of which argue in favor of a crash. One which I believe you left out is the collapse of the SE Asia markets. Initially one might expect the dollar and US markets to go up due to a flight to safety. However, later many investors/business people in SE Asia may need cash, and sell dollars. Remember the turmoil in the Dollar during the 94 mexican peso crisis? This is much bigger.
I think one problem with market prediction is that it is relatively easy to see all of the problems with the market, but it is much harder to guage the positive sentiment. I think what one needs to do to become better at market prediction is to balance the positive against the negative ( I would guess that the best person to do this would be an expert in mass psychology ) . Certainly we would all agree that our concerns about the devasting effects of inflation go back at least a generation. My father talked about this for as long as I can remember. He still does, even when it seems the risk may now actually be deflation!
Despite the dire predictions for years, the US economy has done quite well.
I think George Soros, trader Vic and the Oldman would all agree that our paper market will eventuallly crash ( me too! ) . But when? Maybe not until 2015 when the baby boom surgers stop working and ask for the social security that is not there!
If there is to be another correction or a crash this year, it will be from outside forces, such as the imminent clash of Syria and Israel. Have you followed the Oil/defense stocks recently?

Best wishes -- JTF

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 09:01
Mike Sheller Blue Skies, smilin' at me>(Blue Skies, smilin' at me):
A glorious, cool, crisp morning in NY. NINER: Thanks much for the John Gribbon reco. Will look for his books so we can home in on a more similar wavelength ( generating more light than heat ) . PEDRO: I'm with you, buddy, both spiritually and materially.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 08:54
Donald @Home>(@Home):

This is the Barron's information by Michael Santoli:
Since its dramatic collapse halted in early July, the gold price not only has refused to rebound but hasn't even done traders the courtesy of tumbling further, thus denying profits both to steadfast bulls and bears. For nearly three months, gold has tread and retread the same scarred terrain between $320 and $330 an ounce, with each advance by short-covering traders turned back as soon as producers streamed from their foxholes to sell the metal forward.

Last week, for instance, gold gave back the gains it had racked up in the previous week, when a fitful stock market lent gold players hope for an influx of nervous equity money. Last week it was the reliable rumors of more central-bank selling-along with hefty stock-market advances, that knocked the metal from the mid-$320's back toward the $320 mark.

The gold market, however, still offers methods to squeeze out a bit of return, though most of these won't bring the home-run returns of a winning directional bet. Notes Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group in New York: You can make a lot of money on the status quo.

Chris Park, a gold trader with Strategic Commodity Trading in Orlando, Fla., chooses to see the lack of volatility in gold as a half-full glass. The metal's sleepiness, he points out, has made options on gold futures temptingly cheap. Late last week when the December futures were at $322.90, he observed that the December put contract on 100 ounces with a strike price of 320 could be bought for $440, while the 310 put could be sold for $180. At a net cost of $260, the trade is an inexpensive wager that gold will dip below $320 but not lower than $310. And with a potential payoff of perhaps $1000, the strategy has an attractive four-to-one ratio of reward to risk.

Looking out a bit further, Park says, call options on February gold are dirt cheap, reflecting the deflated sentiment in the gold market. So dropping some small change on February 360 calls could be a great way to play a stock-market correction sometime in the next five months. That assumes, of course, that a fair portion of this equity-mad generation of investors will uphold gold's customary role as a safe haven in a crisis.

Christian sees institutional traders opting again to sell straddles in this low turmoil environment. Such a trade involves selling a call and a put with matching strike prices, which boiled down to a focused bet on low volatility. And for gold producers who might be unwilling to sell forward now at what appear to them depressed prices, insurance can be bought cheaply. In what Christian calls min/max trades, a deal can be structured to lock in a price of, say $320, while giving up only $5 of potential upside, a low cost that results from the quiescent market.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 08:22
vronsky The Inger Letter Forecast - September 22, 1997>(The Inger Letter Forecast - September 22, 1997):
Due to lack of momentum recent market action is characterized as having a CANINE AROMA, leaving open possibility next couple weeks the market may try going to the dogs:

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 08:09
Donald @Home>(@Home):
JTFLICK: What is time? Time is a very useful concept/invention of man. Time did not exist before man. As man is the only animal that is aware of his eventual death he created the concept of time in order to know how much time he has left. We exist in a continuum. ( This is original thought of Donald as far as I know. )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 06:38
Donald @Home>(@Home):
WHO CARES: You have keyed into the most frightful similarity between the mania of John Law, 1720, and today. That similarity is government approval of the mania in order to reduce debt. The U.S. government has apparently decided that it needs this mania. It has included revenue projections from this mania in the budget for the next five years. England and France did the same. The aftermath in England and France was 60 years of deflationary depression.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 06:01
aurator calling all British lemmings..>(calling all British lemmings..):
Invest in America for exposure to the world's most exciting market. To do so buy a British unit trust that specialises in US shares.


But many people are happy to forgo the tax advantages of a Pep for the dizzying gains on offer in Wall Street. But choose your manager wisely: you should select the most reliable, not the most spectacular. And we have come up with the most accurate measure of reliability yet: the consistency rank. This is the average rank over six five-year periods, starting with 1987-92 and ending with 1992-1997. But beware: Wall Street is overdue for a correction. However, a plunge in prices is an excellent buying opportunity.

What was that most accurate measure of reliability again


Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 04:58
Goldbug23 @Ingot>(@Ingot):
While it isn't nice to post for others, Thank You to whoever posted the 00:27 for WW. We all need a good laugh now and then. No offense, WW, we are all entitled to believe whatever we want to in this country, right?

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 03:32
John Disney>(
For Puetz and others-
Wow, you all really know how to hurt a guy. Remember,
the El Supremo proposal HAS NO TAXES at all below
2 million EARNED income. NO capital gains taxes. No tax
on interest or dividend income. Only a BIG tax on EARNED
income above 2 million a year. I even made an exection
for Vronsky at 100 million because of his contribution
to this group and maybe mankind in general. I agree the
market fixes income, but EL SUPREMO fixes the tax rate.
I would also maybe have a consumption tax if everybody
wanted one.
Do you think Im being MEAN Tell me where you'd fix
the start point for taxes. I'll always listen to reason.
My door is always open.
I would also perhaps move the capitol from DC to
Richmond Va, where it should have been in the first
place, except for a nasty turn of events at Gettysberg.
Maybe change the US Army uniform to GREY. Change the
flag and anthem - hooray for the bonnie blue flag.
And force people who live in Vermont to speak with a
southern accent.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 03:14
LGB @Kitcoites>(@Kitcoites):
Gee I go to have a couple hours with mah woman and they STILL be at it!! Give it up WW , Who Cares, Puetzke! Hey Puetz, you be great at second guessin the market AFTER de fact my man......

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 02:33
Who Cares Japan Pumping U.S.>(Japan Pumping U.S.):

I would agree, Earl, that Japan's interest rates boosted the
U.S. economy and stock market. So, why can't the U.S. use
the same tricks the Japanese did?

The key is interest rates. If I could convince investors that
a deflationary environment was in the future, would they be
willing to accept lower interest rates?

If I can get enough savers to loan money at lower rates, I can
generate cash flows out of tapped-out borrowers that will keep
the economy going.

Here, Konstant = ( total debt ) X ( average interest rate )

If the above is a valid argument ( and I believe it is ) , then
I can keep everything working indefinitely UNTIL savers reach
a point where they will not accept lower interest rates.

Can Uncle Sam FORCE or TRICK a large number of savers into
accepting lower interest rates? That is the question.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 02:23
EB .........wHO cARES..........>(.........wHO cARES..........):
O.K. ya got me... I'm a HUGE 'Who' fan. Liked the play ( on words ) ...

away...behind [brown] eyes...

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 02:22
Who Cares Greenspan versus John Law>(Greenspan versus John Law):

John Law took place in one of the first big crashes in modern
history. Alan Greenspan has TWO HUNDRED AND FIFTY years of
history to draw upon that John Law did not.

Television - Did John Law have the advantage of instant, widespread

Hegemonic power - If I remember correctly, the 1720 period had
roughly three dominant powers, Spain, England and France. This
period has only one now. The relative power of the United States
government is far greater now than France was then.

John Law and France's public debt. If I remember correctly,
France's debt / GDP ratio at that time was roughly 5-10 TIMES
greater than ours is now.

Wasn't France still involved in ongoing outlays for war? The
United States is, according to the Treasury, actually moving
towards a balanced budget, not towards increasing deficits.

Not that I agree with this, but if people will believe the Waco
public news, they sure as hell will buy into whatever the Treasury

Modern forecasting equipment.

250 years of economic thought.

The ability to instantly pinpoint market weaknesses and deal with
them. I imagine that the John Law bubble could have been prolonged
if the government could have dealt with sell-offs instantly, rather
than letting a panic get out of hand.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 02:15
Who Cares Things To Do In D.C. When You're Dead>(Things To Do In D.C. When You're Dead):

Roughly $2 trillion of the Federal Debt is in 0-5 year bills.

Another $1 trillion is pension money that's on the books, but
I don't believe it can be shifted.

That still leaves somewhere between $1-2 trillion in long-term
borrowings that can be shifted into T-bills. T-bills can be
artificially run down, we've already seen this from 91-94.

All Sam needs is for SAVERS to be willing to loan their money
to BORROWERS at U.S. 30-year bond rates of 5.7% or less. This
trick has already worked once! They will try it again. I
would. Wouldn't you?

Close the market for an indefinite period. Read Nick Chase.
This is essentially what the Japanese have done with their
real estate market. They've artificially restricted nominal
supply to keep prices appearing high.

Stimulus spending bill that boost the economy.

Foreign trade agreement that brings yet another layer to
the pyramid game. This, too, has already been tried, and
worked, and is a good bet for another round. The problem
with this one is the time lag involved. They should have
started it on 1-2 years ago.

Scare Boomers into buying bonds. This may downdraft the market
somewhat, but it accomplishes the bond reboot in point #1
above. I think this one is likely.

Put SS money into the market.

Restrict capital outflows from the U.S. in emergency legislation.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 02:07
Who Cares Come on, Puetz>(Come on, Puetz):

I've already read John Law, Mississippi Bubble, South Seas, tulips,
the whole deal, okay? Kindleberger, Rothbard, Keynes, etc, etc.

I don't disagree that they will ultimately fail. I disagree on
the time frame. The depression SHOULD have begun in 1991. It
has already BEEN postponed once. Uncle Sam KNEW it was coming
in 1991, and he stopped it. Well, kind of, he contained it and
slowed it down, spread it out over a longer time period.

Look. According to the Treasury, the actual deficit HAS been
contained now. Personally, I think they're lying. But I think
it is quite ominous that bond yields dropped so much in the face
of a CPI report that broke a string of seven, or was it eight,
months of declines.

Do you imagine that Uncle Sam can generate $200B in stimulus

Do you imagine that Uncle Sam can move MORE 30-year bonds into
T-bills, then have the Feds buy them for cash at 3% interest rates?

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 02:05
Who Cares: Am I wrong in believing that much of our recent market action, at least since spring 95, would not have been possible without the Japanese experience? Their desire to pump their economy, no matter the cost. Without the cost of money approaching zero in Japan, it would seem to me that the list of options available to the US would have been shorter. ....... Given that the cheap money available from Japan is likely to come to an end soon, what do you see as tricks and dodges now available to US manipulators? Short of the Fed buying bonds, it's difficult to visualize what they can continue to do to keep the bond and stock market alive and well. Hmmm?

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 02:05
EB ..........There is something in the air...........>(..........There is something in the air...........):
To-day/night is affording us some good postings. My printer is smoking.

Puetz - take it easy with that 6-pak. You're gettin' kind of wild. Mrs. Puetz is in for treat 2-nite

WW - Whatever. I'm not sure who is posting for WW 2-nite but it seems a little like 'Mother Dearest'. Dude, I said please. Now I will have to quote Mick J: Get offa my Cloud

LGB - AC/DC...old? Aerosmith isn't even old... how old are you Seriously... AC/DC are puppies in the scheme of things. As for the welcome for Organ and not you...Jeeeeeez, I'm still wonderin why. Now, what IS your take on the $/YEN relationship...

Mike S -- I have printed & printed your bad self 2-nite...btw, Albert was a great thinker...I have some fascinating books...most is OVER my head

William of Ockham -- You are a COMPLEX individual. And you have left a difficult blade for your successors to sharpen. I thank you.

6pak - 21:36 William would be proud...

Can-O-Worms -- Why look to the stars when the answer is here on Earth? I suspect you will find some goooooood answers. Always keep an open mind, eh?

LGB - I'm still chuckling, you are crackin' me up ( 22:02 )

Oldman - I truly appreciate your posts. You remind of my dad. We have lively discussions and his style and views are similar to yours. Please continue with you WISDOM. Now throw me a bone... ;- )

Ted - how was 32 Red...? the fridge...and slobbin' around...

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 02:05
Pedro (in rocking chair)>((in rocking chair)):

Some thots in the “What’s it all about Alfie” vein! After some ten decades of wrestling
with those basic questions: who am I? where did I come from ?whats this life all about?
and where Am I going? I have come to the point where, to me, the most sense this Life
makes is if one considers it a Learning process;and in particular that our essential being
is spiritual and indeed a part of the mysterious force which put us here....infinite
intelligence....God....whatever. Now, life’s many ironies,contradictions,paradoxes
become more necessary parts of this learning process. And it is a very
personal process that seems to work best from within...when we get in touch with that
essential inner-self...through reflection, meditation, and seeking and finding enlightment
in the thoughts ideas and experiences of others. Death shows us our physical life is a
temporary and deteriorating condition from which it brings relief. As a Learning
process therefore,this life becomes even more important. I believe we are here to learn
and the reality is this often involves a great deal of pain. Then will come true happiness
in a later and greater “condition” where hopefully our current worldly priorities will
have little matter. Apologies,and here endeth the lesson! Right now my “gut” is
suggesting a little possible happiness in Gold shares based mostly on that XAU Reverse
H & S pattern.. Trade some ...hold some.... is the way I like to go.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 02:02
Savage: I'm with you. Indiana-bashers be damned to eternity!!!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:57
aurator away with the birds again....>(away with the birds again....):
Auric: amazing surfer dude. Yes is cloudy in The City of Sails Have just returned from walk around the farm down to the neighbours Emus.

Horrid birds these Emus, females are unbelievably aggressive towards each other in other seasons, now that now they are about to breed and lay, one female must not see another female, they will tear themselves apart on the fences trying to get at each other. That is why the Emu paddocks are divided into runs separated by 7 foot polythene fences.
They boom incessantly. So much like the europeans, no? The Maginot Line, The Island Fortress - The Berlin wall...
Jest cannot see the EMU taking shape without being GOLD backed.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:54
Savage: History shows that bears give up too soon -- right before a bear market begins. The contraction in NYSE short-interest indicates that the same thing is happening now.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:45
Who Cares: Go to your local library, and read all you can about John Law -- the father of the Mississippi Bubble in France, in the year 1720. Everything he tried, Greenspan is trying today. Law failed, and so will Greenspan. If that doesn't work, read about China in the year 900 A.D. -- the original creators of paper-money. Their paper-money ended in massive deflation -- just like all paper-money inflations have.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:41
Who Cares HOLY COW, Puetz!>(HOLY COW, Puetz!):


I think it would be incredibly irresponsible for ANY of us here
to comment on your decision to bet your house. I admit, the
same idea goes through my head, I keep thinking I should have
bought bonds, should have bought bonds.

Not gonna do it.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:40
Watcher @thanks for the newsletter>(@thanks for the newsletter):
SPuetz...thanks for the's hard to argue with the information you provided...having just been through a 7 year real estate recession I would like to make a comparison in sentiments. Even after the property pricers had clearly peaked, 99% of the sellers didn't believe it....and probably 90% of the brokers were in thew same boat! It took 2 years for reality to sink in...then the foreclosures started and peaked about 4 years later...Of course, now everyone can clearly see what happened!!! I admire your call of last week but i think October looks more realistic. Even should that not prove out I know you'll stick with it. Life is decidedly unfair to the bearer of bad news...been that way throughout history. Even if you're proved right don't expect any thanks for warning people.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:39
Savage !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!):
OK...LGB & WW: Let's quit the Indiana bashing. A state that is home to such sages as Auric, Shek, Peutz and yours truly can't be all bad ( can it? ) It is a little CORNy, but the basketball is great, and the football ( college ) superlative ( or soon to be ) !

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:33
Ted: Talk me out of it. It seems like a no-brainer. Buy S&P put options. I'm considering the no-no of mortgaging-the-house to buy S&P puts. I think APH is the genius here. He called the top to the minute.

The market action next week will tell the story. APH may be the hero of eternity.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:33
Who Cares Wrong, wrong, wrong!>(Wrong, wrong, wrong!):

#1 ) I'm not trying to annoy you, I honestly think you've done a
lot of hard work, research, and believe in what you post. I even
believe that, in an alternate universe, a crash would happen.

But we have already SEEN evidence of government prop-up. 1991-
1994. Citibank. S&L bailout. Seven solid years of non-collapse
of the Japanese economy. SEVEN years. And it STILL hasn't

Think about it. If the MASSIVE crash of the Nikkei, world recession,
and unreported falls in real estate prices didn't sink Japan after
SEVEN years, do you think a depreciation of Asian currencies will?

They're not done, pal. They're done at all, yet. I'm convinced
of this. They're worried, that's clear from reading between the
lines, but they have some kind of trick left. I can think of
several, short-term things to do. I think the big buy-up of
bonds is ominous. It's what I expected. I now expect to see
rates fall below 6%.

IF, IF Uncle Sam can drive down rates below 5.7%, then he will
have rebooted the system for another two years. The market will
probably stagnate, perhaps fall 10-20%, but I think they can
stabilize it.

I believe you're taking a bigger risk than you think.

BTW, I have 1/3 of what's left of my savings in Gold Eagles &
Kuggerands. But I'm not leveraged and I don't plan on selling,
so I don't really react to the short-term variations in gold prices.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:31
Auric @Home>(@Home):

Howdy aurator. Overcast there in Auckland from the looks of it. Here is a view of the Sky Tower looking from Ponsonby--

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:28
6pak Open Books @ Published>(Open Books @ Published):
September 21, 1997
UK to open its books, calls for IMF openness code

HONG KONG, Sept 21 ( Reuter ) - British Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown on Sunday called for the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) to develop a code of good practice for openness in fiscal and monetary policy and said Britain would open up its books by publishing outstanding forward positions.

Brown said the IMF should work with the World Bank and the OECD to draft the principles and consult with both developed and developing countries. The IMF should comment on openness in its article 4 consultations with its members and these should be published, Brown told the IMF's interim committee.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:28
WW: You're quite the salesman!! The east coast sounds good to me. Especially after reading what Ted has to say.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:25
Who Cares: I'm sorry. I've studied history. All attempts by government official to keep market-bubbles afloat have failed. If Greenspan succeeds, he will be the first to do so.

By the way, I don't wiew you as an antagonist. I just don't get the same feel from you, as I do from LGB or HepCat. I always feel that you're just searching for answers, not really being aggressive. I always appreciate your postings.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:20
Who Cares Misc.>(Misc.):

The IRS hearings will be squashed, just all previous hearings have.

It's meaningless.

Come on, Puetz, WW1, WWII, Cold War - Unstoppable market mandates,
or government misdeeds? : )

I'm sorry, I've been playing this game for seven years now. I'm
more interested in being right now, then in being wrong for the
right reasons. : )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:18
WW @NE >(@NE ):
I appreciate Peutz's comments and look forward to receipt of info from him. But Indiana must be a tough place to live. Steve move East young man move East! The culture and activities here are great!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:18
Item 12 ) The strength in gold and silver on Thursday and Friday indicates that a reversal may be taking place. It was late-Thursday when the stock market peaked.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:17
Savage !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!):
APH: Peutz is right. You deserve recognition for some great calls. Thanks!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:16
aurator @@ someone open a can of steinie>(@@ someone open a can of steinie):
Frothiness usually means it's ready ta drink, mate.
G' morning folks, have a lot to catch up on,
Auric, thanks for links
Donald, thanks for news
oldman thanks for views
Bart, thanks for the lot.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:15
Who Cares Be Honest>(Be Honest):

Come on, Puetz, be honest. If I had told you, five years ago,
that the President of the United States could sell out the
country to the Chinese, and not only would the media cover it
up, but the REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS, you would have rated this
as a ZERO on the probability scale.

I say to you - the Powers That Be will NOT allow the market to
crash. They still have the means and will to prevent it.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:14
Item 11 ) A potential Dow-Theory sell-signal has been set up with the new highs in the Transports.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:14
Savage !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!):
PEUTZ: I don't understand why the short interest ( in NYSE ) should still be falling. Don't they know that October is not only a statistically declining month but also the premier crash month? Seems like a great time to be short to me. But, what do I know........

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:12
Auric @Home>(@Home):

Further point on IRS hearings--That would be a violation of Federal Law to offer IRS agents promotions based on amount seized. Could be some fireworks out of this!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:12
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Puetz: You have two 8 ) 's. Could we have a summary of why your prediction went wrong last week. Did we learn anything from this?

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:11
Item 10 ) The World Stock Index peaked on 8-6-97. Since then, it has declined sharply. The strength in secondary stocks in the US is the small pocket-of-strength in an otherwise bearish stock market environment.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:11
Who Cares When Oligopolies Rule The Earth>(When Oligopolies Rule The Earth):

See. Told you so. : ) Clinton's off the hook. Again.

I KNEW it. Go, Greenspan. Go, Clinton! I wonder if Ted
Turner gave Fred Thompson $1B to shut up? : )

So much for the power of markets. : )

U.S. News Online
September 29, 1997


The Thompson committee folds, Janet Reno fumbles--
and the scandal remains murky


It was a bad week for Seekers of the Truth. Although hundreds of
men and women in Washington are working full time to get to the
bottom of the campaign fund-raising scandals, they all seem to be
coming up empty. First, Attorney General Janet Reno reshuffled her
campaign-finance task force after her investigators suffered the
humiliation of learning about a key development in the case by
reading the Washington Post. Then Sens. Fred Thompson, a Republican,
and John Glenn, a Democrat, agreed to suspend indefinitely their
committee's investigation of White House wrongdoing. The committee
had concluded the public wasn't listening and that any further
exploration of fund-raising practices would only embarrass both

When the many parts of the scandal-discovery machine ground into
action long months ago, a thorough explanation of the abuses seemed
a near certainty. If the House messed up, Thompson's Senate panel
would find a way to carry on. If his committee proved unfair, the
Justice Department's professional investigators would be there.
If even they weren't up to the job, the attorney general could
always request an independent counsel.


Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:08
Item 8 ) As a contrary indicator, only 16% of the investors ( speculators? ) surveyed by the AAII were bearish last week.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:06
Item 8 ) Frothiness -- An unusually heavy volume of cash continues to flow into junk-bonds.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:04
Item 7 ) Frothiness -- The value of emerging-market debt reached a record-high this past week.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:02
Auric @Home>(@Home):

IRS employess to testify that promotions were based on asset seizures, collections, etc. at the IRS, contrary to official IRS statements. Tight security will be present for these Senate hearings

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 01:02
Item 6 ) American Stock Exchange volume exploded last week -- one indication of the frothiness in the marketplace. Frothiness is usually a good indication that it's time to sell.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:59
Item 5 ) The ARMS index for the American Stock Exchange is now giving an over-bought signal -- indicating that the secondary stocks are peaking.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:57
Item 4 ) The ratio of CBOE equity options ( calls-to-puts ) hit 63.4% -- one of the highest readings ever. As a contrary indicator, when options players are bullish, it's time to sell.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:57
Who Cares A POSITIVE Astrological Prediction, for once>(A POSITIVE Astrological Prediction, for once):

For a positive astrological prediction, go to : )

We'll make believers out of everyone here yet. : )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:51
Mike Sheller: Naw! It's the same broad awright. Bet she's got a great set of hooters as well. Eh?

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:51
Item 3 ) New stock offerings reached $5.213 billion during the past week. That's an all-time record -- eclipsing the old record of $5.04 billion from January 1997 ( the last peak in secondary stcoks ) . Another big supply is coming next week. For every buyer, there's a seller. Insiders are selling, the public is buying. Who do think will be right?

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:50
Niner @Mike Sheller>(@Mike Sheller):
Mike Sheller;

Now I see why you guys post so late: I reply to a post, and by the time I'm through, another post or two has surfaced. I see these of course, and feel obliged to post again, which is what makes it a fun forum.

Where do electricity & Magnetism come from? Mike, darned if I know, But I can describe their actions and reactions to a T in our existing universe. We may never find out ( especially in our lifetimes ) what the universe is all about, but it doesn't prevent some of us from ( i.e. ) making money in the stock market, or understanding how light behaves. We are simply observers ( I know I've said this before ) , and we have to make the best use of the info we are given in this lifetime.

If you are really interested in the physics of our present reality, try some John Gribbon books, he is a physicist great at explaining where we are today. He takes several unrelated disciplines that would be nigh impossible to keep up with on your own and presents them in a very palatible sense.

Best Regards, Ken

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:49
Mike Sheller Who Cares Package>(Who Cares Package):
WHO CARES: Hi, man! So what's wrong with Alaska. Don't knock it.
Good nite to everyone. This has been a really fun nite among some really wonderful and unusual people. Thanks for the fun and the laffs gang. You too WW. The only reason I never read Neitsche ( ? ) is because Icould never pronounce his ( her ) name to the librarian. Apparently I can't spell it either. Byron? Where are you now that I need you? Let's see, umm, Neetzxhe, Niitskee, Nitshkee, ... ah, the hell with it. Gotta find me a broad...

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:48
Who Cares Encryption Blues>(Encryption Blues):

JT - oh, COME ON, pal! The White House pager incident is PROOF
that the government should be controlling ALL encryption for

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:48
oldman @WW>(@WW):
We would be alot better off if we could give tax breaks to the working people instead of the corporate welfare going to the big beezness which is making record profeets. One of the real reasons for doing this the layoffs occurring by these companies that have record earnings is just to keep zee profits rising. And hey those lazy workers we laid off will get unemployment and thus we can lay our costs onto the taxpayer heeheeha. Workers get fired mgmt makes killing in stk options!! Oh but I forgot GET THOSE DAM WELFARE MOTHERS OFF THE ROLLS THEIR KIDS TOO/ On the streets with em. This Socialism in Dis country had gone too fer/ time for those three year olds to git off their tushes and git a job!!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:47
WW: Amendment/clarification: ..... should have read: name calling is your first refuge when the heat is on.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:45
WW: Please refrain from using the expression: there you go again, name calling are being too hypocritical for words. It is your first refuge when the heat is on.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:45
Who Cares Talking about my generation X>(Talking about my generation X):

I... I hope I die, before I buy gold!

So. Perhaps WW is really a standup comedian. : ) Still, Chomsky
has some interesting theories on the media, and why it's not
working right, which *SHOULD* be obvious to everyone here, given
the high level of intelligence. : ) Theories that don't require
an explicit conspiracy, just my ideas about oligopolies don't.

Oldman - Rubin, ha! I've met Rodney Slater, purchaser of
political position for $50K. : )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:44
SHORT-COVERING: For the month-ending mid-September, short-interst on the Item 2 ) NYSE short-interst declined for the 3rd month in a row. Wall Street lore has it that when the shorts finally bail-out, the bull market is over, and the bear-market is beginning. WHO CARES? ( No intent to take anyone's name in vane. ) Who worries? Not Alfred E. Newman, and not me. I, for one, don't care if my shorts fall all the way down to the ground -- to the ultimate support level at zero!!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:42
oldman last one>(last one):
I did NOT post the 00:35 posting. Some puerile poster has decided that it would be cute to post under my handle. Any post here under my handle before next weekend is likewise a forgery. Godnite and good luck all.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:41
JTFlick @NewPhysics>(@NewPhysics):
Re:Lurkers e-mail about unencrypted Whitehouse Pager traffic
Clinton has two choices:
1 ) Encrypt Whitehouse pagers, and support full encryptation by other Americans, or
2 ) Encrypt Whitehouse pagers and resist full encryptation by other Americans.

Are we going to get the Democratic freedom choice, or the big government choice? Given what I know about human creativity, there will always be individuals several steps ahead of any attempts to prevent full encryptation.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:40
Mike Sheller Wait, don't go...>(Wait, don't go...):
NINER: Goodnite...don't let the textbooks bite.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:39
Who Cares Good move, Oldman>(Good move, Oldman):

Good move. Avoid the camps. MUST. KEEP. MOUTH. SHUT. : )

Repent now, publicly, and save yourself a trip to Alaska. : )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:38
LGB @Puetz>(@Puetz):
Puetz I'm still willing to give you 2 to 1 odds on your pre October 31 crash.... still on target for the crash Puetz? Gullible, bubble filled, naive, Lemminglike minds want to know!!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:37
Who Cares A Comedy Tonight!>(A Comedy Tonight!):

Well, it sure *is* a free-for-all. It must be a full moon. : )

I, for one, don't think WW is jesting. He's not dogmatic enough. : )

Puetz - what is the current market ca-puetz-talization of the DOW?

Organ - I hope I die before I get old. : ) Oh, man, best laugh
I had in a week. Don't worry, if Ted Turner has his way, you'll
be doing a Logan's Run. : )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:36
LGB @Oldman>(@Oldman):
Oldman I'm a little less cynical than you. Clinton hasn't driven this market. It's been FED policy, the overdue fruits of Reagonomics ( in spite of his debt bubble ways ) , a lack of major world conflicts, the end of the cold war, a burgeoning world economy, and a number of otehr interrelated factors.

Like you, I think we're in for short term decline and consequently I'm on the sidelines. Unlike you, I think that in the LONG run, our economy ( i.e. our people and our system of govt. ) will prevail over disastor. Hence I will remain long term bullish. If my kids were old enough to invest, I'd tell em to wait a few years till the next bear market runs it's course, ( If and when it arrives which it hasn't yet ) then dollar cost average into mutual funds.

Stocks made roughly 40 new highs to 1 new low last week. Not a real BEARISH indicator.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:36
Enough of the chit-chat. Now, for the real news.

Item 1 ) During August, margin debt on the NYSE increased another $3 billion -- to $119.81 billion. Furthermore, free-credit balances in cash accounts fell to $42.9 billion and free-credit in margin accounts fell to $23.4 billion. Rising margin-debt along with falling credit-balances has usually been a bearish signal.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:35
Oldman @I see the light>(@I see the light):
I agree that my ways have been wrong and I agree to undergo the necessary study to overcome my problems which place me against the interests of most Amerikans.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:31
Who Cares Buy-way to Hell>(Buy-way to Hell):

Puetz - why are you so damn happy tonight? : )

Look, it's easy to get carried away. But, just as you have
empirical evidence of an Mission Control crash, I have
empirical evidence that Greenspan will kick your butt....

Ravi Batra, James Grant, & James Davidson. : )

Someday I'm going to have to go down to the library and pull
up the publication from the professor that substantiates
Batra's numbers for 1990, and how that guy got pulled into
a quiet Congressional subcommittee in 1985. : )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:30
INTELLIGENCE: The postings by Miro, JTFlick, and Organ show the superior intelligence at this Kitco chat-site.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:29
WW: How come we are all brainwashed 'cept you I don't understand that at all. Doesn't that strike you as odd Guess that's why I'm not in your camp.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:28
LGB @Earl >(@Earl ):
Oh gee Earl, and I thought we was pals.....

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:28
Who Cares: I did laugh about your total Cap-Puetz-ulation remark. That was a good one!!!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:27
WW @Oldman>(@Oldman):
You should read some of the works of Marx and Nietzche before you so harshly judge socialist principles. this country would be so much better off if we could confiscate the wealth of all hard working white males and redistribute it to those who would really know how to use it properly. Welfare Mom's, crack house addicts, illegal immigrants, drug and alcohol abusers, lackadaisical sluff off's who are fired from every job. IU envision a world free of the tyranny of competition and excellence, where we can all be equally mediocre and substandard. A world where poverty and fascist socialism reigns. A world where only politically correct speech would ever be allowed. An Orwellian Utopia..where none of us would ever have to be reminded of our failures by seeing anyone succeed. Rise up Amerika!! Rise up and overthrow the overachieving bastards!!!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:26
LGB: I didn't imply that WW was pulling anyone's leg. If my words were interpreted as such, it was purely unintentional. ..... BTW, will that specially offered coin ward off Lurking Goldbugs? If so I'll buy a dozen. Will plastic be OK? ..... : )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:26
WW @NE>(@NE):
OLDMAN I respect you but you are obviously brainwashed by the business media and you dont even know it. Sorry you cant help it/ hoped I could shed some light on your myopic world view. Go Back look at my posts and read the thoughts of a great intellectual American Hero Noam Chomsky.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:26
oldman @nite>(@nite):
LGB: Speak for yourself. I trade based upon my analysis of the markets. I invest based upon my understanding of the macro-situation. Since I was lucky enough to have known and had business relations with some very close associates of Bob Rubin, I knew what would ensue upon the assumption of office by his puppet Klinton. I knew that the world's greatest salesman of paper would bring about the greatest shift of wealth from the productive middle class to the unproductive princes of paper in the history of the world. Like the tin can on the tail of the dog, I have just been along for the ride'.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:24
Niner @This is the last, I'm hitting the hay . . .>(@This is the last, I'm hitting the hay . . .):

Some of the terms you're looking for to describe electromagnetic effects in crystals such as diamonds include birefringence and anisotropism. In particular to your query, the propogation velocity of light in a crystal depends substantially on the angle of its interaction with the optical axis. Some directions are slower than others - - Otherwise, it would not _look_ like it does!

Mike Sheller :

Get real - - I defy you to produce a modern ( since the dark ages ) textbook that contains that 16th century description of light . . .

Shek :

Quit sending me email asking for my predictions about the impending Y2K catastrophe. It's like my asking you to predict the number of potential deaths from the newly introduced Burger King Big King . . . What's the point?


You were right - - _this_ time . . . :- )

All :

I am a GoldBug - - I own call options on June 98 gold, as well as the physical stuff. I will add to my long position as condx improve. I feel something is due to occurr, but don't like to see mumbo-jumbo clouding the perspective. It's hard enough as it is.

Best Regards and Great Trading, Niner

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:22
6pak Bill Clinton @ Business Meetings>(Bill Clinton @ Business Meetings):
September 20, 1997
Clinton raises $950,000 for Democrats

SAN FRANCISCO ( Reuter ) - President Clinton raised $950,000 for the Democratic Party on Saturday by attending three events, including a private dinner with a new Silicon Valley political action group.

In San Francisco, he raised $300,000 at a luncheon for about 70 business leaders and $50,000 at a reception for 400 young professionals, according to party estimates. The final event, which raised $600,000, was a dinner with 30 donors, including the chief executives of leading computer and software companies and key venture capitalists in Silicon Valley.

The dinner, at the home of CNET chief executive Halsey Minor in the posh Seacliff area of San Francisco, was organized by TechNet, the industry's new political action committee.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:21
Mike Sheller A Provocateur in our midst>(A Provocateur in our midst):
ALL: I have the suspicion that the person ( could be a guy, could be a broad ) posting under the WW handle tonite is NOT THE REAL WW! This individual is a cagey fox here to disrupt the usually civil and serious level of discourse at this hallowed site. Notice nobody has said a word about gold in over an hour? Sure, just what those central bankers and treasury gold- bearocrats want. I say we detain and grill WW about gold. Let's ask him ( her? ) some penetrating questions about PM's! I'll start: WW: What do you see gold's next significant move to be?

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:21
WW @oldman>(@oldman):
Unionism and pro worker sentiment was dominent in this country at the time of your rise. This assisted you in developing your opportunity. SHAME on you for wanting worse conditions for others and deserting your labor roots. WAKE UP MAN And look at what is happening and who is doing it sorry but it aint the 50's.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:21
LGB @Oldman>(@Oldman):
Oldman, you take WW way too seriously. AS Earl suggested, he's just pulling your leg. I have it on good authority, that it's really Newt Gingrich posting as WW for fun, in his free time....

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:21
LGB @Oldman>(@Oldman):
Oldman, you take WW way too seriously. AS Earl suggested, he's just pulling your leg. I have it on good authority, that it's really Newt Gingrich posting as WW for fun, in his free time....

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:21
6-pak: I appreciate your comments. After reading your postings, I'll re-explain this in simple terms ( KISS ) : Over-leveraged and over-valued markets -- THEY CRASH!!!!!!!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:21
Who Cares Puetz>(Puetz):

Puetz - The marketplace is not a god. It is a mechanism for
transforming commodities into the form of cultural beliefs.

Government is the same thing.

I realize that James Davidson has uttered the litany of markets
are stronger than governments, but two thousand years of history
say otherwise. : ) Or do you believe that markets started WW1,
WWII, and the Cold War in response to popular demand? : )

Think about it.

Good posting with the names. I gotta rethink my opinion of you
after that one. There was a time when *I* would posted it first.

I expect to see total Cap-Puetz-ulation when the market doesn't
crash next week. Yes? : )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:17
Auric @Home>(@Home):

To The Poster Formerly Known As LurkingGbug--Makes ya feel all warm and fuzzy, eh?

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:17
6pak Al Gore @ Union meeting>(Al Gore @ Union meeting):
September 20, 1997

Gore vows sanctions for firms that resist unions

PITTSBURGH ( Reuter ) - Declaring that workers' organizing rights are not adequately protected, Vice President Al Gore said Saturday the administration plans to deny federal business to firms that interfere in union elections.

We want to make sure that companies that bust unions don't get or keep federal contracts, he said. We're working very closely with your leadership on this and I'm confident we'll make it a reality very soon.

Claiming that one in 20 union supporters are illegally fired during organizing drives, Gore said most Americans would be outraged if they knew of the tactics used by some employers to prevent workers from voting in union elections.

They use every trick in the book, he said. Ladies and gentlemen, that is wrong.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:16
LGB @Puetz>(@Puetz):
Puetz, AC/DC? You're way too old!! Not only that, but the only good thing in Indiana is the Indy 500!! Wel, except for this girl I know from Indiana..... but now she's a California Girl.... ( I wish they all could be California Giiirrrrrrrrlllls..... )

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:15
What? Is it true that some here at Kitco don't watch Bubblevision CNBC?

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:13
You do not understand and as an intelligent person it is hard for me to believe you really believe in the so-called principles you espouse. Read Noam Chomsky and other progressive intellectuals. I was worried about the country under Reagan now I think people are starting to slowly smarten up to the big business scam and its adverse actions against the American People. This is important/ public support for unions against mgmt in UPS strike is also reason for hope that things will turn for the better.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:13
LGB @Niner, Organ, Kitcoites, Puetz>(@Niner, Organ, Kitcoites, Puetz):
Well now I see we have a warm and cordial Kitco welcome for our new posters eh? The typical open minded, free thinking, respectful, civil and gentlemanly discourse everyone preached to me when I first arrived. Glad you're all being so open minded to Organ even though he has the unmitigated gall to apply principles of scientific thinking to his ideas and opnions. What an ignorant concept! How you tolerate him is beyond me.

Niner, re your post on Y2K and the markets, and being interested on predictions that are more current, didn't you know that Puetz was recommending S & P PUT options last week because of the impending crash that would occur on or within 3 days of the Lunar eclipse? Oh yes, Puetz and Sheller will be happy to provide you with specific dates and times of market events based on such scientifically sound principles as 1-900-psychic friends network, planetary alignment market influences as predicted by Edgar Cayce, and Witchdoctor chiken entrail readings. You should pay close attention to these guy's. While they do constantly make fun of all of us Rigid linear thinkers for our closed mindedness, they make excellent contrary indicators which can make you a lot of money if you do the opposite of whatever they suggest. I myself ( and Oldman ) made plenty this past week on that basis!

Let me warn you though, should you make any reasoned intellectual arguments with these folks..regular posters like # eal # erk ( fill in appropriate initials ) , you'll come under a withering assualt of posts accusing you of being naive, a liar, a sheep, ignorant, unsuccessful, cowardly, and they'll even accuse you of having bad breath over the net, as well as making comment about your mother!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:12
Shek: I'm close to the area also -- besides Savage and Auric. Indiana's a great state. Great basketball, and soon-to-be great football ( as in Purdue ) .

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:11
Mike Sheller Earl, let me hold your jacket!>(Earl, let me hold your jacket!):
WW: re your comment coming plutocratic induced economic collapse, now even I know it will be induced by Saturn and Neptune!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:11
WW: Carrying the heavy baggage of social guilt and the pyschological burden of white advantage must be a dreadful experience. How do you cope? ...... BTW, I am pleased that you are shouldering more than your share, 'cause that means I don't have to tote any at all. I like that a lot. ...... Let's see. What ism category would that be? Hmmmm?

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:11
oldman @$%>(@$%):
WW: I whall not answer your drivel again. But I will deny that I resorted to name-calling. I have never done that. I used the descriptor Marxist and if you were truly educated, rather than just credentialed you would know that it was exactly on point. Everything in your posts tonite of a political nature is right out of the Manifesto. You ought to read it sometime---its less than 100 pages. One hundred pages which have cost the lives of opver 100 million peoplel and brought lives of suffering and deprivation for hundreds of millions more.

Your perch upon the workers of the world podium is totally inappropriate when addressing me. My father was killed in a coal mine when I was 7 yrs old. All of my uncles and both my grandfathers were coal miners. I worked in a factory while attending college, and my wife worked in a factory while i went to grad school. I'm glad there were no handouts in the 50's and 60's, for that would probably have killed the desire to better myself that my mother tried to instill in her 6 fatherless children. I am thankful everyday that I lived in a country where, at the age of 40, I could BUY the factory I had worked in at 20. I sorrow greatly when I consider that your philosophical soul brothers have progressed us to the point where the next generation will not have the same opportunities I had. Begone! For the sake of our posterity.You possess depths of ignorance that I am incapable of plumbing. I shall not address you again.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:09
Mike Sheller Begging Forgiveness>(Begging Forgiveness):
NINER: Din't mean to post twice, even tho 2nd was amended. It's a free for all here tonite. A typical Kitco Saturday nite special. Watch out for that chair!! You're a gentleman, I perceive, and deserve better. But you still have to tell me where electricity and magnetism come from.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:09
John Disney: The marketplace should determine the salary of any person, not you or me.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:07
Kiwi ( Are you an AC-DC fan? ) : You are right. The Dow's on a Highway to Hell!!!

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:05
Mike in California ( excuse me, I mean LGB ) : I still expect a shoe-shine from you. Please send your name, address, and phone number so that I can be assured of my ability to collect on your bet.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:02
Boilermaker fans: Purdue is 2-1 in football! It's the first 2-game winning streak in how many years? Go new Coach Tiller! It's a bull market in Purdue football.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:01
Mike Sheller Unkind, most unkind>(Unkind, most unkind):
WW: NOW see what you've done. You have PANDA Freaking out! SPEED: Thanks ( or should I say Manx ) for the laff! Your post gives one paws. I've already been excoriated by WW for referring to dames as broads, so I dare not go any further with this feline line of litter.

Date: Sun Sep 21 1997 00:01
A couple links noted on the SI gold monitor thread:
Fuel cell technology to boost platinum demand
and this one is rather interesting!:
An S+P constant dollar chart dating back to 1860.

Return to Home Page

Site design & maintenance by Nick Laird
All pages on this website are ©1998-2018 ShareLynx Gold - All Rights Reserved