- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 23:48
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- Panda -- As one more highlight, I just visited The Privateer site. Bill has another new commentary out now. Perhaps it'll tend to cheer you. http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 23:47
Cmax--Agree with you. Eventually everything reverts to the mean. One of the questions at Kitco is
timing. How long can the bubble be kept from popping? Would welcome any thoughts on this.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 23:33
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- Panda -- It'll either go down or go up. In that sense, it matters. If it does go down, I think we'll see new lower lows. At some time though, it will bust above the trend line. It is a safe bet to by at the support trend line. Then let it play if you like. Perhaps the magic day will arrive and you will be aboard! Will it be Monday or Tuesday? Will it be next week or next month? Maybe next year. Can Greenie put the rampaging genie back in the bottle? Will it even be Greeny there to do it? So many questions. The answers will come by the hour, day and week. The paper is key, and 'paper houses' are already burning. Even a 'safe house' in a fire-storm is not safe. Especially one built of paper!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 23:31
Cmax Today's modern miracle...who is kidding who?>(Today's modern miracle...who is kidding who?):
- The question asked/implied almost almost daily here is:
is inflation dead?
I think everyone has missed the big picture.
1. Take a reasonable facsimile of a free market, print lot's of paper ( i.e. 70's and 80's ) and create the dragon of inflation.
2. Raise taxes SO HIGH ( and invent all kinds of hidden taxes ) that even though the goverments keeps the printing presses rolling like a juggernaut, the free market forces are obliged into submission because of the heavy burden of all these taxes.
3. Now you have today's wonderful miracle of low inflation and high volumes of free money.
-Who is kidding who?
-How much longer until Atlas shrugs?
-How many of you have thrown in the towel on your own ( previously productive ) companies, because the risk outweighed the upside aftertax potential?
-How long do you think service can feed on service? Someone, somewhere in the chain, has to *produce* something tangible.
-Imagine going back in time, and explaining today's tax environment to Henry Ford. He'd laugh in your face, and tell you that NO entrepeneur would waste his efforts under THAT kind of servitude.
-Now imagine telling this to Thomas Jefferson! He would tell you that this is what was known as feudalism in the dark ages.
This is the big picture that I feel everyone has missed, and all economic cognitive reasoning must come back to this, as a base line for comparison.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 23:14
panda @gold chart>(@gold chart):
- Comex daily gold. Is it a pennant? Or is it another one of those triangles? Does it even matter anymore?
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 23:08
Who Cares Correction>(Correction):
Not my graduation. My students' graduation.
I *already* ache a lot. Too much tennis in high school, I think. : )
I guess I'll go to a movie. I was kind of hoping that Ted would
spark this weekend's topic into something about rebellion and
discipline problems. : )
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 23:08
panda @Long Bond chart>(@Long Bond chart):
- Thirty year long bond...
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 23:07
6pak Bre-X @ Felderhof, Holed up.>(Bre-X @ Felderhof, Holed up.):
- Friday, September 5, 1997
Felderhof won't meet investigators
By SANDRA RUBIN
The Financial Post
John Felderhof, the man many people believe holds the key to the massive scam at Bre-X Minerals Ltd., is refusing to co-operate with forensic investigators, they charged yesterday.
The Dutch-born geologist, the link between Bre-X operations in Indonesia and Calgary, has been holed up in his luxury Cayman Islands home since news of the $6-billion swindle rocked financial markets this spring.
Felderhof has refused interview requests. But he insisted in two separate statements faxed through his Texas lawyers that he is innocent of any wrongdoing and is prepared to co-operate with authorities.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 23:03
- I'm following Ted bedward--not to his bed mind you. Who Cares, congratulations on your graduation. You will find that age does not necessarily make a person feel particularly wise; the aches and pains just make you less retiscent in speaking your mind.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 23:03
- Nite Ted!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 23:03
Who Cares Tortfeasor>(Tortfeasor):
To rely on mainstream information is to be one of the walking dead.
Warning! I have *zero* doubt that my time on the Internet,
between 8000-9000 hours, has completely altered how I think, how
I make connections, correlations, etc. Heck. It turned me into
libertarian. What an idea for a horror movie! : )
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 23:01
- Dow weekly chart... A little choppy, but not the end of the world!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 23:00
Who Cares Russian Nukes >(Russian Nukes ):
Well. I have to say, I don't really believe the Russian nuke
story is all bad. Surely there has to be a correlation where
K = ( # of free-floating nukes ) X ( Taxing ability of governments )
: ) An inverse correlation. : )
Heck, the idea almost sounds like gold, doesn't it? : )
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 23:00
Ted @ Saturday>(@ Saturday):
- It's Saturday on the far East coast and time fer me ta say...Good night ALL....and GO GOLD!.....
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 22:59
- Who Cares, you are quite right in what you say. I enjoy what I read here more than anything I get from the main stream press. Where else can you get such a variety of thoughts, from the idiotic to the sublime and gold and nearly everything else.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 22:54
- Tort: Re-dictionary: No problem as it's good for me to learn after making ZERO attempt to learn anything during my schooling years...My only game then was to rebel against any and ALL authority.....Those idealistic years seem so long ago...eh....before we knew better!...
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 22:54
Who Cares Tortfeasor - What a narrow lot we be>(Tortfeasor - What a narrow lot we be):
Why? Because you spend too much on the Internet; on Kitco?
Please consider the alternative. Do you believe that your view
of today's world, and your decisions thereof, would be MORE or LESS
accurate if you spend the same amount of time watching ABC and CBS?
Or because you're too focused on money? Hardly, I say. : ) I
see far too many jokes for THIS accusation to stand. : )
Well, I'm back from graduation tonight. It sucks because I feel
like a hypocrite. Tonight, I find some solace from my confidence
that I have forever fractured my students' paradigms of how the
world and information function. : ) Unleashed upon a unsuspecting
world. : )
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 22:50
Tortfeasor Joke of the evening>(Joke of the evening):
- Ted, too bad about those short-term gains. However they are preferable to long-term losses. Here's a little tid bit probably overlooked by the main stream media this past week.
TED DOUGH BOY DIES
Veteran Pillsbury spokesman Pop N. Fresh died Wednesday
of a severe yeast infection. He was 71.
He was buried Friday in one of the biggest funerals in years.
Dozens of celebrities turned out including Mrs. Butterworth,
the California Raisins, Hungry Jack, Betty Crocker, and the
Hostess Twinkies. The graveside was piled high with flours,
as longtime friend Aunt Jemima delivered the eulogy,
describing Fresh as a man who never knew he was
Fresh rose quickly in show business, but his later life was
filled with turnovers. He was not considered a smart cookie,
and wasted much of his dough on half-baked schemes. Still,
even as a crusty old man, he was a roll model to millions.
He was heard to have said when he roasted his ox shortly before
he is death, Oh, my baking yak.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 22:46
Who Cares Greenspan Resignation Rumor>(Greenspan Resignation Rumor):
I would be stunned if Greenspan resigned. People like Greenspan
and Bill Gates are not motivated by money, or risk. They're
motivated by challenge.
My model here could be wrong, but this one I trust enough to bet
And the Galbraith article is woefully wrong in hindsight, isn't
it? : ) In 96, Greenspan was trashing the economy, but here it
is, 18 months later, and NOW it's starting to look like perhaps
Greenspan should have raised a tad further, judging the NYSE
speculation and leveraging. : )
Regardless of all the preceding - I'm firmly convinced that
Greenspan had a clear-cut plan going INTO the '91 recession,
i.e. the short-rate/long-rate play that reliquified the banks.
I also believe there is a strong possibility that the '87 crash
begat the 90 Nikkei crash, which finally begat the '91 recession.
In other words, the claim that the '87 crash was isolated from
the real economy is not entirely true, there was a time delay.
Likewise, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a contained '97
crash which precedes a whopper recession around 2000-2001. : )
As Greenspan moves further and further out along the alternate
history pathway, his decisions, BY DEFINITION, involve more and
more risk. Eventually, this path will fail. I believe that. As
a model, imagine your regular drive home. Now, imagine at some
point, ( 1987 or 1991 ) , you put a blindfold on and keep driving.
Yeah, okay, you made it through 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, but how
far from oncoming traffic are you now? : ) Did you drift? Are
you nearing a red light? : )
Can you make it ALL the way home? : )
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 22:36
Forgot to mention--Beautiful Fall weather here in Indianapolis.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 22:36
- Ted's remarks took me back to the John Kennedy murder when I was young and idealistic and before I realized that he had bedded most of the women in North America during his reign. I was at a school assembly when I heard in about the 11th or 12th grade. It was traumatic indeed for a young teenager. Like Ted I found about Diana through Kitco. What a narrow lot we be. Ted, sorry to have sent you to the dictionary for such a word. I actually used that many years ago when I wrote a poem for a friend and found it in a thesaurus.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 22:31
Este--Thanks for newspaper site. I especially like Handelsblatt, the German economic newspaper. That publication will be handy to have when Europe starts hitting the rapids.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 22:11
Este on Newspapers>(on Newspapers):
- If you enjoy reading newspapers this site is for you http://home.sn.no/%7Ethorie/papers.html
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 22:08
nomercy Greenspan >(Greenspan ):
- Fed chief says not resigning
Alan Greenspan calls rumors of his
September 5, 1997: 8:22 p.m. ET
defended - Aug.
saying? - July 30,
WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - Federal Reserve
Chairman Alan Greenspan flatly denied rumors
Friday that he was resigning as head of the U.S.
These rumors are nonsense, Greenspan said in a
highly unusual statement issued by the Federal
The statement came shortly after a reporter asked
a question about Greenspan's future at a White
House briefing on Martha's Vineyard, where
President Clinton is vacationing.
Traders in New York said rumors of Greenspan's
resignation were circulating earlier in the day but they
saw no discernible impact on prices for Treasury
When reporters asked White House spokesman
Joe Lockhart about the rumors, he replied that he
had no information on any change in Chairman
Pressed further on whether he would know if
Greenspan was considering resigning, Lockhart said:
I think it would be likely that he might inform the
White House ( if ) he was planning to change his
The Fed chairman was in California Friday to
deliver a speech at the Center for Economic Policy
Research at Stanford University in Palo Alto, near
Greenspan, 71, was appointed to his post by
President Ronald Reagan in August 1987, and
reappointed by President George Bush in 1992 and
Clinton last June. His current four-year term as Fed
chairman expires in June 2000 and his 14-year term
as a Fed governor lapses in 2006.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 21:59
- Hi Ali! Thankx, but the problem was my damn ISP!...Have a good weekend at the lake...
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 21:55
auroelf quotes as they happen>(quotes as they happen):
- Watcher ( 18:02 ) : For every trade, with price and volume, for a full day , download and run Internet Trader http://www.papyrus.com/pap/download.htm
You will get quotes and charts on a 15 ( US ) or 20 ( Canada ) minute delay. Each day, the new day's data will overlay the day before, so it is not good for historical quotes, but it does let you see every trade of the day for one day. It is free, and so far does not seem to generate junk email or viruses.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 21:54
- FWIW heard on the street....Japan's hedge funds were heavy sellers in HongKong market this past week....also apparently German private investors have Russia's gold ( supposedly sold during the late 80's ) ...used as collateral...source appeared knowledgeable....
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 21:50
Jack ASIA STAR POSTER @ 18:48>(ASIA STAR POSTER @ 18:48):
A major Asian country was once called a PAPER TIGER! That was China; once a lesser military she received that handle. BUT THIS POST IS NOT ABOUT THAT TYPE OF TREAT, BUT REAL MONEY.
The US; and to a lesser extent Europe, are the REAL PAPER TIGERS when we gauge our printing press money with real money.
The problem is that the big money likes this paper; it allows them to buy up GLOBAL ASSETS under their conditions.
Gold needs a guy like Doc Mahathir to stir up his people.
I am sure that there was clammering in Maylasia for such gold accounts.
The untruths that big money promotes thru their media mouthpieces and analysts like Ted and Andy is criminal.
IMHO gold was getting a bit to cheap and large amounts of it were going to Asia thru Dubai and Korea. What better way to stop this buying, but to send some of the Asian currencies into turmoil; as in this day and age, a currency devalued against the dollar buys less gold.
THESE BIG MONEY GUYS will do anything to retain their power and at our expense.
The day is coming when they will attempt to buy up all the gold. That is after they own the entire globe. IMHO
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 21:46
- BIS says Expansionary forces have offset market turbulence.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 21:36
C.V. Compton Shaw firstname.lastname@example.org>(email@example.com):
- Gold in both short and long term down trend. Silver in both long and short term up trend. XAU in short term down trend but long term up trend. Major market indicies in short term down trend and long term up trend. Interest rates in both long and short term up trend. CRB in both long and short term up trend. Dollar in both short and long term down trend. XAU and gold, because of their RSI readings, should begin to rally shortly because of the same and because of the fundamentals of the dollar falling and the crb turning up.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 21:34
- Heavy deposit outflow due to Japanese bank scandal.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 21:26
- $400 million went into Junk Bonds this week.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 21:17
- Laudnam ya say....I'll give it a whirl......and twirl....yes,feelin much better already....good sh!T....
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 21:07
laudnam is a touch better... it was used by folks
up until the 1930's to treat everything from babies
that cried too much to cancer. it was taken for headaches,
toothaches, ingrown toenails, friday nights, saturday nights, ( hangovers )
etc..... . one problem, it was full of opiates, and legal otc.
can feel a headach comin on------ss on the way
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 21:01
Donald--Thanks for comments on M2, M3. Conventional thinking says Money Supply figures not that meaningful any more. I am not so sure that's right.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 21:01
- JIN: It wasn't a good week!!.....Heard someone on the news the other night say people will remember where they were and what thet were doing when they heard the news Lady Di died just as a generation before people did that for John F. Kennedy....I found out Lady Di died while on Kitco when someone posted under the handle: CNN: Lady Diana died...sign of the times to hear it while on the internet,Kitco no less....Heard about Kennedy dying while at home as I was playing hookie from school that fateful day....somethin I often did!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 20:52
- Tort: ya made me get out the trusty old dictionary! Nepenthe= a drug supposed by the ancient Greeks to cause forgetfulness of sorrow....
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 20:49
- Philippines: Government warned over
THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 4 1997
By Justin Marozzi in Manila
Foreign mining companies yesterday warned the Philippine government
that a windfall tax on the industry would drive away investors and criticised
the government's delay in processing applications for groups waiting to
mine in the country.
Speaking at a gold conference in Singapore, Alan Flint, president of the
Philippine subsidiary of Newmont, the US mining group, said the planned
tax would not be widely accepted by the industry.
The tax, to be levied in the event of world gold and copper prices reaching
new highs, failed to take into account the dynamic nature of the industry.
It won't be popular because we're a cyclical industry, said Mr Flint.
There will be periods, like now, when commodity prices are very low.
We need to have the opportunity to take full advantage of the upside.
If the country went ahead with the windfall tax, it would be one of only
three mining industries in the world - joining Papua New Guinea and
Ghana - to do so, and would be contradicting its previous commitment to
introduce a competitive fiscal regime, he added.
The Philippines was also criticised for the continuing delay in approving
126 mining licence applications. In spite of the passing of new legislation
last December designed to resuscitate the industry, foreign groups such as
Newmont, Western Mining, TVI Pacific and Chase Minerals, which are
applying for copper and gold or gold-only exploration permits, have been
waiting to hear their fate.
A serious setback to the liberalisation of the mining industry came last year
when Marcopper, a local group then 40 per cent owned by Canada's
Placer Dome, leaked tailings ( waste ) into the river from its copper mill in
Marinduque on Boac island, central Philippines.
Earlier this year, Horacio Ramos, director of the government's mines and
geosciences bureau, said he expected the details of the fiscal regime to be
employed would be finished in June. The government has been negotiating
revenue-sharing arrangements with mining companies.
Approval of new foreign mining licences, which remain an emotive issue in
some indigenous communities across the archipelago, may also be delayed
due to the intense politicking in Manila in the run-up to presidential
elections next May. The ongoing talks on constitutional change has already
delayed debate on economic legislation.
One mining executive said the continuing bureaucratic delays could lead
companies to shelve plans to mine in the Philippines. The DENR
( department of environment and natural resources ) is not moving very
quickly on these applications. Why? These people can go somewhere
else, he said.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 20:47
- Tort: Just got it and thankx alot....unfortunately 3 of the sales were held less than a year so I guess on those I gotta pay the piper...unless I leave the country..er somethin...oh, that's right,I already left...The others I'm thinkin of are mucho year investments....Thankx again and sorry ta hear ya had a week from HELL...from THERE things can only get better!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 20:42
- Thanks for the sight for market letter from Tw last week. See http://www.erols.com/mdando good insight into markets by a newsletter writer.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 20:30
- Amazed by Mahathir
FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 5 1997
The response of Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia's prime minister, to sharp
falls in local financial markets is ever more bewildering. Until last night, a
misguided succession of measures seemed designed to accelerate the trend
that has seen a 21 per cent fall in equities over the last two weeks.
Then came a sudden U-turn. Not only is Malaysia to delay its
controversial Bakun dam and other extravagant projects, it has also
rescinded the damaging restrictions on short selling which provoked big
outflows of foreign money.
The markets must hope Dr Mahathir is finally getting to grips with the
problem. But they will need some convincing after his erratic performance
to date. The need for measures to stabilise share prices is urgent if
Malaysia is to avoid a full-scale banking crisis that would bring a brutal
end to the country's exemplary growth.
Malaysia's economy is one of the most highly geared in Asia. Since much
bank borrowing is collateralised by shares, the credit bubble looks
dangerously close to bursting.
Dr Mahathir's apparent willingness to change tack may involve a loss of
face. If the markets do rally on the latest news, he will at least be able to
claim that Malaysian institutions made money out of following his
instructions by intervening to support the market at its trough.
He may continue to use highly coloured rhetoric, but what has always
counted is what he does, not what he says. And there is much more to be
done. No rally will last without determined government measures to rein in
credit and slow growth to a sustainable rate.
Dr Mahathir likes to portray what has happened as a plot by racist
westerners anxious to deprive an up-and-coming developing country of the
success that it deserves. But this is unfair both on Malaysia and the west.
Malaysia's remarkable development is bringing it inexorably into the orbit
of global capital flows. In these days of open markets no government can
turn those flows by political will alone, as many European governments
trying to defend an unrealistic exchange rate have found to their cost.
The idea of a western plot against Asia looks particularly dubious when the
Malaysian example is set against Indonesia. Jakarta markets stabilised
yesterday after President Suharto's government introduced measures
including a review of infrastructure spending, budget curbs, and efforts to
smooth rationalisation in the banking sector.
It is to be hoped that Dr Mahathir's actions yesterday indicate that he has
finally realised that the longer Malaysia delays similar action, the bigger its
problem will become.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 20:30
- Ted, the keg of Internal Revenue Codes that you ordered should be arriving by UPS about now. I'm looking forward to nepenthe in the football world tomorrow. This has been the week from hell and its not getting better soon.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 20:24
RLM Prechter's Gold>(Prechter's Gold):
- This is from Prechter's Billboard. Sounds like bb fishers dow/gold chart to me:
September 4, 1997
Hi Bob, I haven't seen much lately about the inflation-adjusted dow. are you still counting wave ( V ) as ending in 1966? --James
YES. The new high is B of an expanded flat. It's not a new high by much, and in gold-money terms it is not a new high at all! --RP
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 20:23
- Tony Jackson: Proof that inflation lives?
Originally published: SATURDAY AUGUST 23 1997
It has been a fidgety week for equities on both sides of the
Atlantic, but nerves have basically held. As usual these days,
that boils down to one main inference: that the markets are still
relaxed about inflation.
The argument about whether inflation is dead - and, if so, why
- is perhaps a little sterile. But it relates only to the general price level.
What about assets? Does the eightfold rise in US equities in the past 15
years, for instance, represent asset inflation? If so, is that compatible with
the death of inflation in the rest of the economy?
The question is not merely academic. In Japan a decade ago, general
inflation was approximately zero. But the equity market was in the process
of doubling in the course of three years. As for real estate, it was frequently
asserted, with solemn absurdity, that the emperor's palace in Tokyo was
worth the same as the whole of California.
There are two points worth making here. First, general inflation in Japan
did, in fact, rise with the bull market - to almost 4 per cent at the peak -
before collapsing amid the savage asset deflation which followed.
Second, Wall Street's latest doubling took not three years but two and a
Perhaps we should step back and consider what we mean by asset
inflation. A rough working definition might be asset prices rising over a
period by more than nominal GDP. That assumes the supply and quality of
the assets remains broadly the same. So, when Japanese and Australian
tycoons start buying Van Gogh paintings at rapidly mounting prices, as
happened in the late 1980s, we may reasonably suspect that asset inflation
We may also suspect the cause to be excess liquidity in the system, which
is finding expression in asset prices because inflation is being suppressed
elsewhere. In the case of commercial real estate, for instance, this might
well prove self-correcting. Those who pay higher prices will seek to raise
rents accordingly. If they succeed, this will count towards general inflation
and prompt the authorities to react. If they fail, the yield on real estate will
be out of line with other asset classes.
Similar self-correction can be seen in house prices. In the UK, the average
house price in the mid-1980s, as computed by Halifax, was around 3.5
times the average salary. When prices ran amok at the end of the decade,
the multiple rose to a peak of 5. It then slumped to a nadir of 3 early last
year, and has since recovered marginally to 3.3.
When we come to equities, something of the sort should logically apply.
Over the very long run their price, as with houses, can rise only in line with
people's ability to pay for them: that is, with nominal GDP. And, as with
commercial property, if a rise in price is not accompanied by a rise in
income, the yield will fall out of line with other asset classes.
But the comparison is tricky in other respects. The value of equities, unlike
that of houses, is a secondary effect. It depends on corporate earnings,
whose share in GDP may be constant over time but fluctuates in a long
cycle of its own.
In recent years, that share has been rising sharply and, at some point,
presumably will turn down again. Meanwhile, it is plainly worrying that the
market value of US equities as a share of GDP is at an all-time high.
As for dividends, the analogy with real estate is tricky as well. For dividend
payments, unlike rents, do not count as a component of inflation. In the
UK, payouts have been rising sharply in recent years. This is not seen as a
warning signal, any more than the rise in equity prices.
In the US, of course, the warning signal is the other way, with the equity
yield at an all-time low. It is commonly asserted that this is misleading: that
the increasing prevalance of share buy-backs constitutes an alternative
means of distribution. As I have argued in this column before, that is largely
In the end, it is impossible to say definitively whether there has been asset
inflation in equities. On the one hand, Wall Street has risen about four times
as fast as nominal US GDP since 1982. On the other, the starting point
was plainly far too low.
On balance, I am inclined to believe there has been a degree of inflation.
This brings us to the second part of the question. Must that eventually spill
over into general prices, thus knocking away the main prop of the bull
Richard Jeffrey of Charterhouse argues that it must, in the UK at any rate.
I am less sure. The forces suppressing general inflation - globalisation,
technology and so forth - may still be imperfectly understood, but they are
evidently very powerful.
If so, that is not necessarily less dangerous for the markets. Let us recall
our earlier premise: that asset inflation is the product of excess liquidity,
forcing up prices in some areas because it is not allowed to do so in others.
It should follow that the stronger the forces curbing general prices, the
stronger the upward pressure on equities. The trouble is that, as in Tokyo
in the late 1980s, asset inflation can be clearly discerned only in retrospect.
And by then, of course, it is too late to do anything about it.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 20:19
JIN TWO GREATEST WOMEN PASSED AWAYIN WEEK TIME....>(TWO GREATEST WOMEN PASSED AWAYIN WEEK TIME....):
The greatest women of century passed away.....inweek!
princess diana and mother teresa.......LOST HOPE?
NO...NOT AT ALL....this bring up more THE AWARENESS OF COMPASSION.We still have..pope,dalailama,....many many unknown fighters.
CHEER FOR THESE PEOPLES.......SALUTE TO THEM!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 20:16
- THE MARKETS LAST WEEK: The regional currency turmoil took center stage and
pushed investor sentiment to a nadir. Wall Street volatility added extra pressure on Asian stocks. In
Indonesia, higher interest rates due to the weakened rupiah sent stocks plummeting. The Bangkok
bourse went into a free fall after the government released on foreign exchanges a staggering $23.4b.
worth of contractual obligations, debt incurred in defense of the baht earlier this year. Fulfilling the
commitment by delivering hard currencies will lower Thai reserves to $6.6b. An IMF-led financial
aid package worth $17b. will help to shore up Thailand's external liquidity position. Interest-rate
fears rattled global markets at the end of the week. Investors worried that the Bundesbank might
raise rates soon, after German import prices registered a higher-than-expected 4.2% jump in July.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 20:06
- Japan & China Kissey-kiss-kiss.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 20:04
- HI Jin! Just got home and thank you very much for the long e-mail!...Will respond in kind before the weekend is over....A 12% one day rise in an equity market scares me as much as the 7% daily losses the days before...
SPECULATION gone amuck!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 19:59
- Hi Tort! No great rush on that info....just when you have the time! TGIF
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 19:58
Ted @ Ron + Auroelf>(@ Ron + Auroelf):
- Ron ( 11:09 ) Thankx ( ? ) for damn tax sites and April 15th brings out the WORST in me too!....Auroelf ( 11:15 ) Thankx for the tax info. and will forward it to my book-keeper ( the wife ) ....greedy worthless bastards! ( politicians...that is )
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 19:54
- EB ( 10:52 ) AS THEY say in Cape Breton,was out and about all day....Rain did stop and it actually became sunny....Our property is awash with berries that come one after the other...berry heaven....blueberries and rasberries currently in vogue,followed by my favorite ...Blackberries...
Brocoli crop startin ta go ta seed but herbs are thriving....Spent my day gathering up non-DRIP stock certificates from safety deposit box and mailin em off ta Fidelity so I can sell em if the spirit moves me...
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 19:53
- AURIC: An afterthought about your observation of recent large increases in M2 and M3. When the Iron Curtain came down in 1989 many from those regions opted for U.S. currency over their own local currencies. At the end of 1994 it was estimated ( by the Fed ) that 233 billion in U.S.currency was circulating overseas. It would seem reasonable that Asians might be doing the same, they obviously have not bought gold. Hoarding at home does not directly impact M2 and M3 but if banks were experiencing currency shortages for day to day operations due to Asian demand the fed will actually print as much as is needed. This shows up in the Monetary Base figures and is added into M2 and M3 as well.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 19:38
- took the long way home ( supertramp )
today and finally contacted the
silver spirit again! he has been
thawing-out and replacing his
apu's, and is now ready to re-emerge
as the leader of the pack. a symbotic
relationship was developed with the
long-needle pine tree which has ALWAYS
had a silver irrediscense when viewed
in the presence of sol.
chaos and flux have just returned from their family reunion
with good news. there is consensus with times-a-changin
for all. nature and her laws ( physics ) are controlling
the pit and the pendulum. the hiss of the blade, the
schwing of contact made, and the realization that
your head is rolling amongst the rabble from which
plucked. the taskmasters have BIG plans for those
exposed, and those seemingly innocuous ones' tam bien'.
glass houses are everywhere, and the rock-throwers
cherokee!; ) searcher-for-the-ionized-particles, and gatherer-of-the-seeds-of-knowledge.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 19:35
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- Tw -- I suppose the 'cable' could break.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 19:24
- Dow/Gold Ratio 24.26
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 19:20
- Goldbug23: Thanks for the info and link. I got my information at the site below and it really weird, but it shows the holdings I posted earlier GE, Microsoft etc.. Someone must have goofed.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 19:15
- My wife set the alarm for 3AM to watch the Princess Di Funeral! Help
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 19:08
Goldbug23 @Rydex Ursa>(@Rydex Ursa):
- LURKER: You have correct symbol RYURX ( but wrong info ) and if you want a good chart go to http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/mf/R/RYURX.html which will not give you a pretty picture. But you know - buy em when no one else wants em ;- )
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 19:04
Asia Star slow night>(slow night):
- Slow night, so I thought I would just post the entire article. It mentions that Japan has a gold plan. Anyone know much about it?
Friday, September 5, 1997.
Maybank launches latest
account for savings in gold
KUALA LUMPUR: Malayan Banking Bhd ( Maybank ) yesterday
launched its Gold Savings Passbook Account, opening the way for
Malaysians to buy and sell gold and record the transactions in a passbook
just like a normal savings account.
Customers can now buy gold in 999.9 fineness at all Maybank branches at
daily quoted prices for one gramme in ringgit and the transactions would be recorded in the passbook. Maybank chairman Mohamed Basir Ahmad said the new account was a secure, cheap and convenient way for the public to invest in gold ó a commodity that has been popular with Malaysians ''for as long as we can remember.''
''It is similar to a normal savings account and has the added advantage of having the bank keep your gold investment in its safekeeping,'' he said at the launch the new account at Menara Maybank yesterday.
He said customers could open the account with a minimum deposit of five
grammes of gold which cost about RM150. There is no maximum limit.
Basir said that withdrawals were flexible and a customer could choose to
convert the gold investment into ringgit equivalent at the prevailing gold price. This option is available immediately.
The other two options to be introduced by the end of the year is to take
physical possession of gold in the form of wafers of 10, 20, 50 or 100gm
or to withdraw it in the form of gift certificates at a minimum of 10gm.
Basir also said the account offered customers an overdraft facility against the value of their gold investment at an annual interest rate of base lending rate plus 1.75 per cent.
He said the gold account was not only another avenue for savings and
investments but was also part of the bank's efforts to support the
government's call to increase national savings.
Kitaru Inagaki, the World Gold Council manager for South Asia, said at
the launch that from time immemorial, gold had been valued as a sound investment that tide over any financial or economic uncertainties.
He said that in Japan for example the Gold Accumulation Plan ( GAP ) , a
monthly gold savings scheme, had expanded rapidly in the 1990s when the
property market dropped sharply, ''stock market fell day by day and
people watched their trusted investments shrink in value.''
Inagaki said another catalyst was the 1995 Kobe earthquake where most
people lost their savings in the ensuing fire where the only exception was the unburnt gold coins in the vault.
He said although Australia's central bank was selling a big portion of its gold reserves, central banks in other countries including the United States were still holding on to their gold reserves and thus the demand for gold was still there.
He said due to the low gold price, there had been a 35 per cent increase in demand for gold in India, Middle East and Asia.
''We are not fundamentally worried about the role of gold in the future.
Although it is difficult to forecast when the price will go up, we hope the physical demand for it in this region and the Middle East would pull up prices,'' he said.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 19:01
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- As much as Greenspans supposed resignation is being quashed, I personally don't discount that He WILL resign. Call it 'vibes'. Yesterdays vibes!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 18:50
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- Anybody out there see where Dec gold is going to move to real quickly if it successfully 'manages' 325.5 Monday? I, for one, see 'posibilities'!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 18:48
Asia Star news>(news):
- Bank allows gold savings account.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 18:27
6pak Electronic Money @ Initiatives>(Electronic Money @ Initiatives):
- Electronic Money Initiatives
Supervisory Issues in Electronic Money
Remarks by Senior Deputy Comptroller for Economics and Policy Analysis James Kamihachi as part of a panel discussion on the Role of Government at the June 11 American Banker Conference on Future Money.
Bank for International Settlements
G-10 Report on Electronic Money - E-Money: Consumer protection, law enforcement, supervisory and cross-border issues
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 18:22
- The Rydex Ursa Fund is not invested in stocks but has the
primary function of shorting the S@P>S@P Stock Index futures.
There are times when the exact loss of the futures is not
he same because of its attempting to balance the premium.
The Rydex Nova Is long the S@P but is leverged to move
approximately three times the net change.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 18:13
6pak Greenspan @ E-Money>(Greenspan @ E-Money):
- ****Toward Electronic Money & Banking: The Role of Government******
A Conference Sponsored by the United States Department of the Treasury
Sheraton Washington Hotel
September 19-20, 1996
Alan Greenspan is serving in his third term as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. He also serves as chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee. Greenspan has been designated chairman by Presidents Reagan, Bush, and Clinton.
Greenspan also has served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board, a member of Time magazines Board of Economists, a senior adviser to the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, and a consultant to the Congressional Budget Office.
His previous presidential appointments include the presidents's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, the Commission on Financial Structure and Regulation, the Commission on an All-Volunteer Armed Force, and the Task Force on Economic Growth.
In recent years, Greenspan has served as a corporate director for Aluminum Company of America ( Alcoa ) , Automatic Data Processing, Inc., Capital Cities/ABC, Inc., General Foods, Inc., J.P. Morgan & Co., Inc., Morgan Guaranty Trust Company of New York, Mobil Corp., and the Pittston Company.
Greenspan was chairman and president of Townsend-Greenspan & Company, Inc., an economic consulting firm from 1954 to 1974 and 1977 to 1987.
Greenspan received a B.S. in economics summa cum laude in 1948, an M.A. in economics in 1950, and a Ph.D. in economics in 1977, all from New York University. He also holds numerous honorary degrees.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 18:04
6pak Try again @ Galbraith>(Try again @ Galbraith):
- James K. Galbraith
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 18:02
Watcher @searching for better data>(@searching for better data):
- anybody have a location for charting ( intraday ) that show #shares sold or bought at specific price and time? It could be raw number data if charts not available. Stock I am interested in is NYSE traded but am looking at nasdaq also.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 17:59
6pak Greenspan @ Greenspan>(Greenspan @ Greenspan):
- Copyright 1996 by the Texas Democracy Foundation. Preferred Citation: James K. Galbraith, Chinese
Mirrors, The Texas Observer ( January 15, 1996 [ http://epn.org/galb/jg960223.html>http://epn.org/galb/jg960223.html] ) .
******The Free Ride of Mr. Greenspan******
James K. Galbraith
President Clinton is coming up on the most important appointment of his second Presidential term. Sometime soon, the term of the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will expire. And the President must choose, whether to reappoint Alan Greenspan for four more years, or else to name a replacement. Most observers assume that
Greenspan will get it, and a strange public quiet has settled over this issue.
Indeed, Greenspan's entire professional life has been devoted to the service of the rich. His early ideology, as a follower of Ayn Rand, celebrated such service. And his later career, private and public, confirms that the rich and powerful are the people he respects, admires, and works for.
In the mid-1980s, these leanings took Greenspan into the orbit of Charles Keating, the highest flyer in the Savings and Loan industry at that time. Keating's Lincoln Savings and Loan Association was in trouble, as regulators wised up to its real estate scams. Keating needed lots of help. Greenspan, then a private consultant, obliged. On one day for which we have records, December 17, 1984, Mr. Greenspan traveled to Washington to lobby on behalf of Mr. Keating. Greenspan's personal fee for that one day was $12,000.
*****Greenspan Urges Flexibility in Regulation*******
May 6, 1997 - Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that in the face of continual market-driven innovation in banks' risk measurement and management systems, regulatory approaches based on rigid, one-size-fits-all rules are likely to become quickly outdated, ineffectual, and worse, potentially counterproductive.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 17:59
- Does anyone have the symbol for the Rydex fund? I checked out a Rydex Series-Ursa Fund ( RYURX ) . Surely this is not the fund you are talking about. It is 100% invested in stocks. Top holdings include GE, Coca-Cola, Exxon, Microsoft, Merck, Intel.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 17:52
FYI--Ed Yardeni to be the guest on CNN Moneyline with Lou Dobbs tonight.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 17:36
vronsky PRUDENT BEAR vs URSA>(PRUDENT BEAR vs URSA):
- Strad: Based upon all the arguments at Kitco, I would feel more comfortable with URSA.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 17:24
- Gold 1976 low of $100 is possible ? Get your charts out! 200 years of American Gold prices.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 16:24
- I guess at 3.13EST it was rumor that Greenspan was to resign. Later it was reported it was totally untrue rumor. Interesting rumor I thought and If I was him I would before everything breaks apart. Time must be short for the Stock Market!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 15:51
- For those tired of camel piss and lolly water, may I suggest trying your hand at home brew. I have been making several varations for near 20 years. Profoundly rich and delicious stuff, as strong or light as you like. Wife, son, and daughter nag me to make the stuff. All malt, no corn sugar.
Delicious, GOLDEN home brew.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 15:46
- Good News- ( $UTIL ) Today Dn -1.23, second day going down. Dow Jones is Dn -55.98.
Bad News- ( $XAU.X ) Is Dn. -.48
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 15:11
Goldbug23 @Love that Star Dust>(@Love that Star Dust):
- STRAD MASTER: I checked out both Rydex-Ursa and Prudent Bear and went with Ursa ( thanks Mike ;- ) with a small amount and am slowly adding to it.
The examples Pru B went with I thot were a little skewed ( re dates used ) and that made me do it. I suspect they will soon both be winners. IMHO ;- )
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 15:11
- Gold finished $1.00 UP today, US 30Yr Long- Yield Up .034.
US Dollar Down big time in Europe now. I don't know why but I have the feeling something going to happen this weekend. That will be good for Gold, I hope I'm right.
nomercy- Your post at 11.49 was excellent, Thanks.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 14:46
Hopefully the above ground silver shortage that was forcast by many astute observers to hit the market late in 1995, or early in 1996 is NOW here.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 14:42
Bob @...no surprise here, eh ?>(@...no surprise here, eh ?):
- Lebed: Russia lost track of bombs
September 4, 1997
WASHINGTON ( AP ) - Russia's military has lost track of 100
suitcase-sized nuclear bombs, the nation's former national security
chief has told American lawmakers, who expressed
alarm to the Clinton administration.
But U.S. and Russian officials discount the claims by retired Gen. Alexander Lebed, the ousted one-time foe of President Boris Yeltsin.
``We don't have any evidence to support what ( Lebed ) said and responsible
Russian officials have specifically denied it,'' a White House official said Thursday. ``We have no credible information any nuclear weapon, suitcase or not, has even been available on the black market.''
The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed, however, that the Russian military has such portable nuclear bombs, which security experts describe as the ``perfect terrorist weapon'' in the wrong hands.
Lebed described the devices as Special Atomic Demolition Munitions that are designed for sabotage behind enemy lines - blowing up bridges or command centers, for example. The 1-kiloton nuclear bombs, which weigh 60-100 pounds and can fit into a suitcase or backpack, can kill 50,000-100,000 people and devastate a portion of a city, according to Lebed.
In May, Lebed told a congressional delegation led by Rep. Curt Weldon, R-Pa., that as Yeltsin's top defense expert last year he discovered the Russian military couldn't account for 48 of 132 of suitcase bombs.
In going public, Lebed upped the total of missing suitcase bombs to 100 out of 250 in an interview with CBS's ``60 Minutes.''
``I don't know their location,'' Lebed told CBS in a program scheduled to air Sunday. ``I don't know whether they have been destroyed or whether they are stored or whether they've been sold or stolen. I don't know.''
Lebed added that when he told Yeltsin, ``I did not see any reaction'' and the Russian military didn't institute an inventory check.
Former Defense Minister Igor Rodionov told CBS he ``never had any
information, a single report'' that the suitcase bombs were stolen.
Deputy Defense Minister Andrei Kokoshin, who met with the congressional
delegation after Lebed, also assured lawmakers no nuclear weapons were
missing. Last week, Yeltsin named Kokoshin head of the powerful Defense
Council as he shook up his cabinet to institute military reforms.
Last October, Yeltsin fired Lebed amid charges the former paratrooper was
trying to form a private army. Yeltsin had appointed Lebed his security chief after the general withdrew from challenging the president for re-election.
Rep. Weldon, who concedes Lebed may have an ax to grind, said he believes
that at the very least the Russian government's control has grown lax over its nuclear stockpile since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
``The potential for very sophisticated nuclear technology and weapons to get into the hands of Third World nations and other groups is very real, and it's something I don't think the administration follows up on,''
Weldon said in an interview. ``The Russian government doesn't have control.''
In April, Defense Secretary William Cohen said the United States relies on Russian assurances - and not independent checks - that Moscow has full
control over its nuclear weapons.
``We don't know the exact nature of the command and control that's in
place,'' Cohen told reporters. ``We have been assured by the highest
officials that they have very strict controls over their systems.''
In August, Weldon, who is a Russian expert and sits on the House National
Security Committee, wrote letters to CIA Director George Tenet and National Security Adviser Sandy Berger, expressing his concerns about Lebed's allegations about the security of Russia's nuclear weapons.
``I was particularly alarmed by his disclosure that he is unable to account for many nuclear weapons,'' Weldon wrote, detailing the charges.
Weldon also met with Energy Secretary Federico Pena in July before the
Cabinet secretary went to Moscow and the congressman urged Pena to bring the matter up again with Russia military officials.
The DOE didn't respond immediately to requests for comment on what Pena
discussed in Moscow.
Jay Stewart, the director of foreign intelligence operations for the DOE from 1990 through 1994, said the U.S. government and international community have much reason for concern regarding Russia's nuclear program.
``It's my belief that the Russian Ministry of Defense itself doesn't know
where all the tactical nuclear weapons are and cannot account for them,''
Stewart said in an interview. ``If these suitcase devices have fallen out of national government hands, the question becomes where are they, who had them and what are their intentions. In the former Soviet Union everything is for sale.''
[music refrain: ...I say to myself, Oh, what a wonderful world...]
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 14:41
- NOMERCY: Thanks for your Sep 4 17:15 re Treasury Direct improvements. About time they joined the 20th century. That site for Market News, The Economeister, http://www.economeister.com is also great and others may find it of value.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 14:38
general Mother Theresa died>(Mother Theresa died):
- Just heard from my girlfriend that Mother Theresa passed away.
Another great lady has left us.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 14:28
Strad Master Great!>(Great!):
- DAVID WETTERAU & GENERAL: Good points. I knew I'd get some good advice and discussion out of this. More on Prudent Bear: http://www.tice.com/bearper.htm Thanks for the help. Anyone else have an opinion. Where are you, George S. Cole?
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 14:27
Due to the incredibly nice weather hear on the east coast silver lease rates have jumped another 50 basis points and are closing in on 3%.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 14:16
Platinum is good! ussr.lives>(ussr.lives):
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 14:12
General to Stradmaster>(to Stradmaster):
- Why is the Prudent Bear a Slam Dunk? The URSA also hedges
somewhat with some interest bearing accounts and plays the
whole S&P short, not just a select few stocks which may or
may not follow the DOW and S&P down. What am I Missing?
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 14:12
John Wetterau Rydex / Prudent Bear>(Rydex / Prudent Bear):
- Strad Master, Ursa Major is a pure bet on a market downturn; The Prudent Bear is a bet on David Tice ( with a bearish slant ) . I know little about the market and nothing about David Tice, but in general: do you want to bet on the market direction? And, if so, why not buy leap puts? As for The Prudent Bear ( great name ) , have you investigated David Tice to the same degree that you would a company whose stock you are considering?
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 14:02
- Has anyone else had problems getting coins ( Maple Leaf's, Silver Eagles ) ? I have been buying from a large dealer in North East. They could only handle 20-30 oz AU w/o ordering out to another dealer. They kind of thought I was a bit nuts buying in quantity. Then at the end of last week we got three big orders and everything has slowed down to a crawl. I had warned them that there was a bruising demand that would come their way soon, but they fluffed me off ( until now? ) . It doesn't seem possible that the trade is so anemic that there is so little inventory available. Any thoughts or anecdotes along this line?
What happens when everybody wakes up one day looking for 10 or more coins?
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 13:59
Strad Master Bear vs Rydex>(Bear vs Rydex):
- VRONSKY & ALLEN: The way I understand it, Rydex is tied to the S&P. S&P goes up, they lose money, while if the S&P goes down they win. The Prudent Bear is a fund managed by a fellow named David Tice ( age 42 ) . It is a fund that invests 80% in stocks on the short side and in S&P Puts if he feels it's warranted. The other 20% is invested on the long side as a hedge. ( I may be wrong about this last part. ) They have a web site which is http://www.tice.com/ so anyone wanting to check it out can access info there. In my mind it seems a slam-dunk to go with the Prudent Bear but I may have overlooked something - hence the poll here.
Another interesting day on Wall St.?
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 13:51
- Strad Master: OK, I will bite. Rydex looks better as a pure bet against
the masses diving into index funds. FWIW, I just started getting into
it through Fidelity. It may seem dumb to pay a commission for a no-load
fund, but it lets you reduce the risk of bad timing by not investing a
large amount at once. Minimum investment through Fidelity FundsNetwork
is USD 2,500 instead of 25,000 for direct investment through Rydex.
Other brokers such as Schwab may also have lower minimum investment.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 13:50
General to Strad and allen>(to Strad and allen):
- I am invested in the Rydex URSA and Money Market funds.
Yes, they have a $25K minimum for investment in the family.
I have had good service from the company and have seen them
recommended by a couple of prominent newsletters. They also
have a precious metals fund indexed to the XAU.
Call 800-820-0888 for info/prospectus and 800-717-7776 for quotes.
PS Robertson Stephens Contrarian Fund also has a natural resources/
stock market short position. I think you would get more leverage
with URSA though.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 13:44
vronsky PRUDENT BEAR vs URSA FUND>(PRUDENT BEAR vs URSA FUND):
- Strad: If your share your knowledge with us regarding the relative advantages of each, this might stimulate the thinking process and prompt considered opinion. Besides, i am ignorant of the relative advantages.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 13:35
- StradM - I looked all over creation to find a bear fund and only found Ursa. I kinda remember seeing an article on them in a Mfund magazine with an OK review. As someone had posted here they do also have a few other offerings to take in the upside. Its a small family of three or four funds. Its a no-load and requires $25K to play. That's what I know. I had been thinking of using it, but am unsure of the meltdown potential in this market and the possibility of these Mfund companies really having problems with redemptions. Even Rydex might have a problem with this, who knows. But if you've got money tied up in IRA/403b acct, why not go for the 'gold', as they say.
Sign me paranoid of the big pile...waiting for a paper pile up crash. ( screeching metal, burning mess ) .
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 13:34
nomercy Answer to 64M question>(Answer to 64M question):
- SUTTON-ON-TRENT, England Pigs flew through the air in England Tuesday when a freak tornado
crossed a pig farm. Forty pigs were hurled through the air for over a quarter-of-a-mile as the tornado
crashed into a farm at Sutton-on-Trent, near Newark, in central England. We looked up and saw these
pig-huts swirling around 100 feet ( 30 meters ) up in the air, said witness Allison Reed. ( AFP )
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 13:30
nomercy Middle East>(Middle East):
- ( September, 5 ) - Palestinian sovereignty could mean military alliance with Iraq and Iran,
Israeli control over the air space west of the Jordan challenged and weapons deployed near
Tel Aviv. Arafat has to make a choice . Unless the PA tackles terrorists in its domain, talks
with the Palestinians will not move ahead, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu tells in a
wide-ranging interview on Wednesday.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 13:11
- ...now he's being doubted...
The baby boomers have been speculating more, not
saving more. US households have changed their savings
patterns so radically that more cash has gone into equity
mutual funds than into bank deposits.
An objective analysis of the boomer theory begins with
the US Department of Commerce calculation of the
savings ratio within GDP statistics, and recent revisions in
those calculations. As the accompanying chart shows, the
( revised ) savings ratio began to fall sharply at the end of
1995 -- even as the stockmarket was leaping to new,
dizzy heights. Far from saving, households have been
spending part of their savings, as their perceived wealth
increases from the booming stockmarket.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 13:07
Canadian Newswire reports Liberia is minting commemorative coins in memory of Diana. silver ,1/5 oz. and 1/20 oz. gold. potential market is enormous. spread the word and lets get some of the supply into the hands of the masses.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 13:03
- Funds flowing away from stocks to real estate....
Property is back in favour. Low interest rates, a toppy
stockmarket, changes to superannuation, strong capital
gains in some sectors and the promise of economic
growth are fuelling a return to real estate by investors
large and small.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 12:56
Strad Master 2ns try!>(2ns try!):
- ALL: OK I'll repost my question since no one has responded ( Maybe y'all missed seeing it? ) Who votes for the Prudent Bear Fund vs Rydex? My wife wants to move some of her Keogh money into one or the other ( 25% - 50% ) . We know the advantages and disadvantages of each but just wanted to take a poll before we pull the trigger. Thanks in advance.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 12:47
- LSteve: The metal still needs to be held by an approved third party trust, such as Wilmington.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 12:39
- I have a dumb question. Since the rules are changing for holding gold under an IRA, can I hold the gold myself or does someone else hold the gold?
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 12:35
EB I love a good currency trade in the morning...>(I love a good currency trade in the morning...):
- That sterling is a traders dream: CHOPPY ilove it when it takes a dive...buy, buy, buy, mostly ;- )
That D-mark is getting Back off the ground
That s-franc...well i don't know why I don't trade that...
That yen...the jury is still out...w/w...big moves soon?
That wonderful US$...hmmmmm...won't trade it...can't seem to short it...
That Eric...shut-up and get out!
away for good
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 12:33
Who Cares Oops, sorry Mates, we devalued your country>(Oops, sorry Mates, we devalued your country):
- Nick sez I am extremely depressed about the future course of our
country. What are our politicians going to say if gold goes up to
say $500 oz? Oh, sorry mates! we've just devalued your country by 20%.
I nominate this for funniest post of the day. That is EXACTLY what
I expect the U.S. government to say. : ) After all, our president
has been practicing the oops, sorry about that phrase for five
years now. : )
And it looks like the 100 Russian mini-nukes story is true. I
thought it was a joke. What would be the effect of one nuke
Well. It's certainly location-dependent. A nuke in London would
probably shift money into U.S. $ and t-bills, maybe bonds - thus
reducing U.S. interest rates. So. We've got at least ONE more
avenue of action for Alan Greenspan. ; )
A nuke in D.C. would probably cause a massive DJIA rally above 8,500.
A nuke in the Middle East could probably be executed in such a
fashion as to set off total war. : ) Oil prices up big-time. : )
100 nukes is a LOT of nukes.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 12:31
Silverbug Guiness makes you strong>(Guiness makes you strong):
- I too have tasted the Australian culinary entry called Vegemite it is truly an aquired taste that I have no aquired yet.
I'm just back from the Republic of Panama where I enjoyed drinking Soberana and Atlas beer, and adjusting to the locally made Guiness Stout, when not looking into new copper mines
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 12:28
- Vege - I've eaten vegemite. It's a bit salty, not bad, but I'll eat anything. And I can understand why the taste must be aquired from youth. We eat P.B.J.'s. and I DRINK my yeast. to each his own...eh mate?
Gunner - Al = ALL in ebspeak. firstname.lastname@example.org You up for some golf? beers/cigars/etc? I'll bring the portable CD player w/ a little Buffet. btw, have you read any of his books? Thay are quite enjoyable.
Happy trading ALL!
where is the moon-man? There was an incredible crescent moon last night...oh my!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 12:27
- Mr Sheller ( 08:24 ) inspired this addition:
Certainly the game is rigged. Donít let that stop you; if you donít bet, you canít win.
Pessimist by policy, optimist by temperament - it is possible to be both. How? By never taking an unnecessary chance and by minimizing risks you canít avoid. This permits you to play out the game happily, untroubled by the certainty of the outcome.
and for Nick:
Always store beer in a dark place.
--All by Robert E. Heinlien
P.S. I beg to differ on the Yank beer comment - it's more like BULL piss, at least the lower-altitude versions. Though some of the local private ( micro ) brews are getting better - especially the darker GOLDen ones ( there a reference to the official topic ) . ¶-∂
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 12:08
Happy Little Vegemite not on the salad>(not on the salad):
- EB... A yeast extract which is high in B vitamins ( a must for serious drinkers ) Vegemite is poorly understood or appreciated beyond our native shores of Oz. Most Aussie kids are raised on it....usually on bread....it is an acquired taste.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 12:04
- Lollywater...sounds like the Brit's shandy ( lemonade & lager ) .... Bleah!
EB - Who's AL? What's yer e-mail address?
Life's too short to drink cheap beer
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 11:56
- I know I asked this question before, but I lost all my bookmarks when I changed system software:
What is the WWW page that lists the daily COMEX stocks of Silver? how about the CBOT and the LME?
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 11:51
- CNBC reported earlier that the Congressional Budget Office had
projected a 50 basis point increase in the bond by end of December.
There was also vague reference to potential earnings shortfall on the
part of several unnamed companies. The DOW started to head south about same time.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 11:47
nomercy US $>(US $):
- The paper bulls have lost momentum...the trend has changed from UP to HOLD...and soon it will be DOWN..
Question: Holding for what? cheaper interest rates? stronger US $,? foreign investments? bigger inflows, from where?
There's only one way....DOWN...they're just postponing the inevitable.
1 ) US $ has been effectively 'capped'. a ) It can't move up on the DM as it creates inflation in Germany & Europe b ) Said 'capping' has basically discouraged European investors to pour money in the US as the exchange risks/rewards favour a stronger DM as the German economy is picking up speed c ) Most European ouflows to US markets ,due to EMU has basically dried out d ) as the DM strengthens the reverse occurs - money will flow from the US to Germany & Europe. e ) US multi-nationals earnings are going to be affected by strong US $, which has taken place primarily in the last 4 months ( DM 1.65 to 1.80-1.85 )
2 ) US vs Yen is also 'caged' around 1.20. Anytime it rises above 1.20 the Japanese sell US bonds, though their economics dictates a weaker Yen. A weaker Yen proves troublesome a ) Balance of trade deficit with US b ) it creates further competitive pressures on the Tiger countries c ) Japan & SE Asian countries cannot buy any more US $ or bonds as their economy requires their investment internally d ) Japanese stocks & SE Asians are becoming cheaper & money will flow out of the US to that region within the next few months.
3 ) The US $ is too strong for South American countries which will have to compete with devaluated Asian currencies, which will lead them to devalue their currency and US exports will suffer, though US investment in those areas should increase. Currency devaluation will increase foreign debt & interest expense for those countries ( Brazil, Mexico ) . What will be the effect to US? I would speculate the same impact that Thailand etc are having on Japan due to US ( over 40% of US exports are into that region.
4 ) As the US $ diminishes in value and/or earnings and sales decline, the stock market will correct or plunge.
5 ) US bonds are being sold as the opportunity arises ( this morning was an example, as hedge funds & CB took advantage to unload )
6 ) 'Published inflation' is on the rise----Wages are going up, minimum wages have increased, UPS, recent auto union increases--- so either we have increased prices or REDUCED earnings
7 ) As the US $ will decline, stocks will plunge, investment in gold will increase & blow out the shorts.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 11:40
- Crown Butte Developments
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 11:40
silverbug platinum update>(platinum update):
- Good to be back....
The latest issue of Numismatic News is reporting that the U.S. Mint has reached an agreement with the Strategic Stockpile people for a loan of 126,000 oz of Pt. The article says that the material must be returned by 2003, but that the Strategic Stockpile can recall the metal with 30 days notice. The article said that this relieved the mint from having to expend 50 million + to start up the bullion coin issue. The proof coins are about all sold out already. The mint will have to come into the market to replace that metal sometime, and also to increase its mintage.
Additionally, IRA's are being opened up to all bullion forms instead of being limited only to American Eagle Bullion Coinage.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 11:28
JIN CHECK MAIL...DING DING........>(CHECK MAIL...DING DING........):
- TED ,
tHR POSt man coming........ding ding ding....
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 11:27
- Israeli raid quashed, 11 commandos killed
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 11:26
- EB No need to bypass DFW. I work for AA and we need the money.
Peaceful here without LGB, aint it?
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 11:15
auroelf US cap gains tax>(US cap gains tax):
- Ted: The new tax rates are summarized in Stephen Leeb's latest Personal Finance newsletter ( Aug 27 issue ) . The top tax rate on cap gains is reduced from 28% to 20% for an investment held more than 18 months ( 12 months if you sold it between May 7 and July 28, 1997 ) . For taxpayers in the 15% bracket, the maximum rate becomes 10% on cap gains. In 2001, the max rate will become 18% ( 8% for 15% bracket income tax folks ) for investments held 5 years or more. Old August issues of WSJ will have more detail, I am sure.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 11:09
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
- Ted: Normally, I'm just a libertarian. But every April 15th I become a flaming ANARCHIST! So I try to stay away from tax sites. Not good for the old blood pressure. So I'm not sure what's all there, but you might try http://www.taxcast.com/ . And if you're really feeling masochistic http://www.yahoo.com/Government/Taxes/ ought to do it for you. . . . Off to the gym, and to drop the pooch off at the groomer's.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 10:52
EB SELL, SELL, SELL>(SELL, SELL, SELL):
- Nick - What was your target You MUST have a target in mind before you buy! It is time to SELL SELL SELL. I think you have far surpassed your target...yes? And the 'YANK' beer is Watered down Camel-Piss. Our crazy laws out here... I buy Foster's Bitter 5.6% in the BIG-OIL-CAN. It's pretty tasty. I also like to drink the watered down Camel-Piss BUDwieser. I can drink a few while golfing and still make some putts ;- )
MikeS - Ya got me. My cart got ahead of my wheels...you cook, I KP. How is little Pepi btw? Haven't heard much from the little fella...
Leaner - You forgot that wonderful tasting AUSSIE 'veggiemite' for the 'salad'. YUMMY! ;- (
Ted - Mornin' BRO! Great Morn. Slight fog situation to burn off soon for a great GOLF day. Plat up a buck ( so far :- ) ) still chasing spot...Yahoo! Eating the last of the strawberries of the season. It was a good season. I can't wait till they trade strawberries on the market, broccoli too! I have insider stuff till the cows come home! Have fun today...still raining?
Bombast BOY - Step on some metal before the weekend...eh?
URIS - I hope you are not an air traffic controller...I think I'll bypass Dallas for a while ;- )
Puetz - Today feels like a great day for a big market RALLY. imnsho
AL - I love you man/woman!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 10:42
RJ ..... Watcher .....>(..... Watcher .....):
- You can e-mail me at - email@example.com
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 10:40
- Good news comes out for US Market and it goes up 60 points. Now it is -5 and US 30yr Yield Bond was Down .044 now Up .017. This is Crazy
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 10:00
Ted @ USA new tax laws>(@ USA new tax laws):
- Anyone: Did the USA government pass the new capital gain tax laws and if so ,do you know the particulars or a site where I can access them...Nick: American beer ( Bud ect ) is like drinkin watered down piss...I only drink Fosters or Canadian beer!....
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 09:58
- Ted, Mike Sheller, Uris et al. --The witching hour approaches and I'm about to turn into a pumpkin. G'day ( g'nite ) all.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 09:50
- Dow up 60? From down here it looks like a very nice right shoulder. Any comments?
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 09:41
- Uris--just had another think about your Aussies calling the drink lolly water and figured out what you meant. Sorry this post has nothing to do with gold but youse guys can blame it on a dumb Aussie not knowing the rules on this site. By the way--we've got CNBC live here as well--and I tell you what--The book--THE UGLY AMERICAN--should be re-written. I have never heard such a pusilanimous bunch of bullshitters in all my life. Sorry, Uris, What's her name Herreira? just got to me. Anyway, back to lolly water. What they meant was the brew they were drinking was as weak as piss, eg, Bud etc. is like drinking lolly water compared to Aussie beers ( our beers are 5-6% alcohol compared to the l.w. you guys drink ) .
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 09:28
- Dec.Gold up .80
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 09:24
Nick @Uris--lolly water>(@Uris--lolly water):
- Uris--lolly water is soda pop to you and I guarantee you that no RAAF officer would be caught dead drinking it. BTW--I read a recent survey that said Aussies were the SECOND biggest drinkers in the world. Apparently we were pipped at the post by the Austrians!! If you ever come to Australia for a visit, remember to prepare in advance. You have to increase your alcohol consumption about 300% over a six month period if you want to participate in an Aussie shout. That means when its your shout you have to buy a drink for everyone at the table. If there are twenty people at the table, you had better be ready for a long evening. Do you remember the scene in Crocodile Dundee When a Yank challenged an Aussie to a drinking contest? With typical OZ humour he said This should be interesting. Never, I repeat,never try to drink an Aussie under the table!! You will be counting sheep when the Aussie says who's shout is it?.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 09:21
Ted @ Panda>(@ Panda):
- Mornin Panda! S+P futures up 5.55....
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 09:21
- US Dollar down from employment news released and Gold going Up.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 09:02
- At least spot silver is on EBN.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 08:59
Uris @DFW Airport>(@DFW Airport):
- Nick @Canberra
Since you seem to be the local expert on Aussie liquid refreshments,
I was stationed in Japan in the early 50s with a RAAF squadron, 77th as I recall. Those jolly chaps drank something they called lolly water I have never heard of it since those days and I wonder if you could shed some light. To all; sorry for the off topic post.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 08:56
Ted @ Speed+ Bijou>(@ Speed+ Bijou):
- I figured it was my ISP as they can't seem to run it correctly for more than an hour or two ( if they are on a hot streak ) ....probably similar to how an iSP would be run in the old USSR!!!! hard to understand as this is a society run by corrupt unions and big gov'ment ( WW's utopia ) ....S+P futures up 6.75!!! BBL dudes..after I go blister my brilliant ISP ( for the 50th time in the last week )
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 08:48
- Ted---You gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold em, never count your money, 'till the dealins done. Ted-- It is time to fold 'em. I'll say it again. It is time to fold 'em. You'll get em back later-- don't worry. What have you got to lose? Think of it this way. One year from now--will the share market be higher or lower? If the answer is the latter, fold em!! Put your $ into something that will just stay even and you'll be WAY ahead. I won't recommend what to put em into--remember, Aussies are skeptics. Stay on your toes. You've got the best info source in the whole world here! I'll bet that A.G. watches this site! Donald is worth his weight in gold, and if you guys arn't sending him a bottle of veuve cliquot for Christmas, you've got no bloody gratitude at all for the time and money he is saving you!!! Listen to the skeptics. LGB, despite his lack of polish, makes a lot of good sense, and is probably far ahead of many posters on this site. Also listen very carefully when Oldman posts!!! If you did nothing else, you would make a heap of dough ( just ignore the rash on his neck! ) . Take what you get on this site, ignore a lot of it, digest it all, then remember the bottom line. Most of what is said on this site is correct. However the timing has not been so. Get in Quick. Sell before the other guy does, and buy before him too. Sorry if this doesn't make much sense, but it is nearly 11 pm in OZ and my brain is rather fatigued from 8 hours of trying to beat everyone else into the Jubilee Golds of this world. Ted, As we say in OZ--You're a good bloke, and I would be proud to call you a mate. There is no higher compliment.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 08:47
Speed @leaving for work>(@leaving for work):
- Ted: Kitco is running hot, straight and normal from Houston. Looks like Dow 8000 by noon. Hope some exuberance sloshes over to the gold stocks. BBL
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 08:45
- Ted: Kitco is in a socialist country too. Could be as slow as your ISP!!!!!!!!!!!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 08:41
Ted @S+P futures>(@S+P futures):
- S+P futures up 6.0 ....I s Kitco being very slow for anyone else or is this my DAMN ISP again
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 08:34
Ted @ talkin heads(CNBC)>(@ talkin heads(CNBC)):
- Make up yer damn minds! now they say average hourly earnings up .5%...long bond up 14 ticks.....17.....21.....
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 08:31
- Nice change in the last few minutes.
US 30Yr Long - Yield went from down to up .002 @6.610
S&P500 +300, NSDQ100 -25
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 08:31
Ted @ As the world waits>(@ As the world waits):
- Pre-release of the employment report: Long bond up 1 tick....Re-employment report: # of jobs created is expected to be 70-75,000 jobs and the real ( ? ) number of jobs created is: 49,000 jobs created!....Long bond up 8 ticks....average hourly earnings ( up.4% ) is inline with the all important expectations...
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 08:24
Mike Sheller Quid? I thought you meant squid!>(Quid? I thought you meant squid!):
- NICK: There is a thing called destiny which determines who will do what in this life. I know many brilliant folks who are just scraping by, and many dunces who are rich. This is up to God, not man, tho we all try. I consider myself very blessed in this life. I believe that many Kitcoites are well enough to do, and many are well enough to do it in future. I don't care much who has what. I think we are mostly here for the activity, the game, the speculative sport, the enjoyment of our minds and wits. Why else would some who need not work, still risk their capital and their psychology on this? Why else would some who are lacking funds still search for the key to a new level in their investment life? There are no answers other than we are here together, and enjoying that. G'Day to all.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 08:21
- S+P futures up 3.50....re-FRO trade: Will probably be feelin like a DUNCE by the end of the day...oh well,euphoria can't last forever ( :. (
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 08:17
Ted @ Nick @ Canberra>(@ Nick @ Canberra):
- Hi Nick!..Enjoy your posts too! Am having trouble accessing pevious posts ,so what did you say in the Kenny Roger's post? Re-big wave: never learned ( am a fatalist ) the Alaskan Roll so if a big wave hits me the wrong way,I'm history!....IMO it's hard to tip a kayak over if you pay attention to the waves....Have paddled through some monsters...Re- Newfies- yep,they's the salt of the earth and some of the friendliest people on the face of the earth....What do you mean about hold is not the way ta go
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 08:16
Mike Sheller SMALL CAPS - for small heads, ain't they?>(SMALL CAPS - for small heads, ain't they?):
- MILHOUSE: Actually the positive action in small caps currently may be a sign that the bull is not going to cave imminently ( using that word a lot today! ) . Unless, of course, some exogenic ( or photogenic re silver ) factor emerges to scuttle the game.
As a bull plays out, ripe prices in the big caps and glamours ( if you'll pardon my lapse ) deflect profits into unpopped kernels in the pan. Fund money gets more diversified at the end of a bull as it searches out unexploited shares and stories. Most of my astrological speculation is with corporate 'scopes of small cap stocks. More bang for the buck. A period of small cap excitement is usually a prelude to a general decline, so the question here is HOW LONG will this last. I have found that a helpful measure is to visually scan the weekly price charts of the NASDAQ listings ( A Mansfield chart book of all the OTC is a good thing to buy every 6 months ) looking for noticeable spikes among the second and third tier Nasdaq issues. This is usually a giveaway. Also, sectors that had been sluggish and unresponsive to the overall bull suddenly coming to life and spiking is another clue. When the Dow tops with no follow up action from the lesser lights, it is usually a tail-end move and everything is going down. I would have to say that a moderate recovery for the Dow here, even if it doesn't reach new highs, will continue to be positive for the small caps. Possibly til January.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 08:12
- S&P500 +240, NSDQ100 +660.
US 30Yr Long-Yield Down .015 @6.593
Gold Up 15 cents.
I guess everybody waiting for 8:30EST for unemployment numbers.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 08:04
Nick @reply to Mike Sheller>(@reply to Mike Sheller):
- Mike--I have enjoyed your posts immensely on kitco, along with all the others. This is an incredibly good site for info on investing. However, you have to take it all with a very big grain of salt. In Australia we are extremely sceptical of EVERYONE, especially our leaders. You have to have your BS detectors on full alert if you wanna make a quid. Picking the end of a big, balls and all bull is an extremely dangerous exercise. You can, however, make a few pesos on the swings if you have both big huevos and a fast computer. My question about you not trading on the Aussie, or any other market is a relevant one. I have watched absolutely brilliant people posting on this site. I cannot for the life of me figure out why they are all not multi-multi millionaires!!! Donald, for example has a FANTASTIC skill at finding info before anyone else. That skill is worth millions if applied properly. The Aussie market is like a roulette wheel. The only difference is that people with Donald's or No Mercy's skills know the number BEFORE it comes up. I'm making a quid. Why arn't all of you?
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 07:42
- Ted---G'day mate. Am enjoying your weather forcasts and your kayaking as I've just seen a program on the boob about a guy who kayacked all the way down the coast. I've got a good mate who has just left OZ to go back and see the rellies in Newfieland. His sister lives in St. Johns and he says Newfies are the salt of the earth!! As I am in landlocked Canberra with the famous pollies whom in their wisdom have sold our yellow heritage to trade it in for paper, I am extremely depressed about the future course of our country. What are our politicians going to say if gold goes up to say $500 oz? Oh, sorry mates! we've just devalued your country by 20%. By the way, Ted, Hold is not a good idea. See my Kenny Rogers post earlier. Ted--When a big wave turns you over--How do you right yourself
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 07:39
Nick : Re JBG - knowing when to hold em etc is a very tough question. IMO, your percentage profit or loss shouldn't determine when you sell, but this is easier said than done. 3 weeks ago I bought 10,000 shares in Crystallex at 3 & 7/8. I plan to hold em until they reach 25 or 2, whichever comes first.
GSC, M Sheller, Puetz, Donald, Others : What do you make of the recent strength in the small caps ? Most of us are familiar with the action in the Dow prior to past stock market collapses, but can anyone tell me how the small caps were behaving ( particularly in the months leading up to the 87 crash ) .
Thanks in advance, Milhouse
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 07:33
Mike Sheller Yo Bro!>(Yo Bro!):
- TED: and too = to in New Yawkeez ( as if YOU didn't know ) .
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 07:31
Mike Sheller Where are the nearest RR tracks?>(Where are the nearest RR tracks?):
- TED: Thanks for remindin' me. I've got to get hustling and find some widows n' orphans I can hawk those MOGN shares too in the next week! Hmmm...what's YOUR sign Madame?
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 07:30
Ted Just woke up>(Just woke up):
- Mike: yo yOU= to YOU in Capebretoese.....
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 07:27
Mike Sheller How does it work?>(How does it work?):
- NICK: I was always a bit hesitant to trade Australian stocks ( tho I had Amcor on my Obsidian Wave list last year ) . I am under the apprehension that Australia being down under, an American trader had to go short to really go long, and to go long when one wished to go short. Think of the trouble someone with my mental capacity might have with selling puts! ( ;-^ ( ps -notice new emoticon - tongue in cheek, in your honor ) .
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 07:23
Ted @ Mike Sheller>(@ Mike Sheller):
- Mornin Mike! Yer damn right I'll come crying yo yOU if things don't work out...Buddy!...Ya can't blame yourself and a scapegoat is always needed!
Wednesday sold 1,000 shares of FRO @ 23 and yesterday it went down 7/16 which makes me feel like a genius for ONE day....Usually when I sell a stock it automatically soars!...We are ALL totally responsible for our own trading decisons ( obviously ) even though the LATEST JERK at Kitco thinks we need protection from those evil stock+gold advisers that live to take advantage of us....Go Puetz go!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 07:18
Tortfeasor Joke of the morng>(Joke of the morng):
- It looks like gold and silver up a little but not enough to get a person out of bed for any significant time. Understanding the markets is not unlike wrestling with an octopus as evidenced by the following story:
A guy goes into a bar with his pet octopus and says, I bet $50.00
that no one here has a musical instrument that this octopus can't
The people in the bar look around and someone fetches out an old
guitar. The octopus has a look, picks it up, tunes up the strings and
starts playing. The octopus's owner pockets the fifty bucks.
Next guy comes up with a trumpet. The octopus takes the horn, loosens
up the keys, licks it's lips and starts playing a fantastic jazz solo.
The guy hands over another fifty bucks to the octopus's owner.
The bar owner has been watching all this and disappears out back,
coming back a few moments later with a set of bagpipes under his arm.
He puts them on the bar and says to the guy and his octopus, Now, if
your octopus can play that I'll give you a hundred dollars.
The octopus takes a look at the bagpipes, lifts them up, turns them
over, has another look from another angle.
Puzzled, the octopus' owner interrupts his pet's concentration,
saying, What are you messing around for? Hurry up
and play it!
The octopus say's Play it? Huh?!? I was still trying to figure
out how to take of its pajamas...
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 07:15
- Mike Sheller. Mike --there is no reason that you and everyone else on Kitco cannot be trading on the Aussie market or any other market around the globe!! Why Why Why do you limit yourself to the US markets We are able to trade anywhere!!! almost instantaneously around the globe. All the info you need is available on the net. Why Why Why do you just trade in the US? I am trading US puts ( thanks Puetz ) and also other share markets. Yanks--take your blinkers off. We are a world economy here. You could have made heaps on the Malaysian share market this week!!! Sell when Mahatir says buy and Buy when Mahatir says sell!!!!!!You could have made at least 20% in a week.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 07:08
Ted @weather forcast>(@weather forcast):
- Even though yocal TV station weatherman ( ? ) said it'd rain all day today,there isn't a cloud in the sky.....Guess he doesn't have access to the satellite image ( CNN ) which showed the rain almost past here as of yesterday afternoon....atttention to DETAIL is NOT a strong point here,to say the least!...Mornin Tort!!!! give us OUR joke!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 07:04
Mike Sheller From the A-Files>(From the A-Files):
- Well, it's Friday, and the Astrological Investor hat is on. Some tech talk that will leave even John Murphy scratching his head follows: Tuesday and Wednesday of next week ( Sept 9 & 10 ) Venus passes over NYSE Neptune at 27 degrees Libra. The ol' astrologer sees this as possibly bringing a pleasant interlude for oil, as well as potentially for platinum. In light of the horrible terror bombing in Jerusalem, it might not be out of the question for an Israeli response imminent, or over the weekend. This would tie in with the positive bias for oil that Venus conjunction seems to promise. For stock traders ( if there are any left at Kitco ) a minor, but interesting view on astrological potentials in corporate horoscopes might be obtained by watching MGI Pharmaceuticals ( MOGN ) for an excited few days around Sept. 16 & 17. The transiting Mars sweeps past the company's natal Sun/Uranus conjunction. Current price is around 3 3/8 - 3 1/2. Perhaps a pop from this level to a moderately profitable range in a couple of weeks will obtain. If you take the plunge, don't come crying to me if things don't work out. But it might be an interesting ( if MINOR ) astrological illustration of technical time-window anticipation.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 07:02
- Hi Watcher...I'm UP....Malaysian KLSE up 12.37%....Indonesia up 11.28..
These are ONE day moves folks!....no gambling goin on there!...Europe modestly up....Dec.Gold up .30 @ 324.60.....today is the big one,the Employment report....consenus estimate is 75,000 jobs created....
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 07:01
Mike Sheller @theNick re Time>(@theNick re Time):
- NICK: Somehow this is almost more of a horror story than buying a stock and having it tank on you. My real live broker, Whisper, always tells me to sell half of my doubles and triples, and let the rest ride. Then they can't hurt you, is his reasoning. I've found that to be true. I 'd like to have your problem once a month.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 06:47
- P.S. JBG ( Jubilee Gold closed today at 144 ) Would you still be holding? Remember the Kenny Rogers song You gotta know when to hold em, know when to fold em. You never count your money, 'till the dealins done.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 06:29
- Dollar falling a little against tye Yen ( .27 ) Mark ( .0020 ) .
S&P500 +110, NSDQ100 +425. Gold up 10 cents!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 06:21
- I can't remember the last time in Asia when everybody stock was up. Europe looks lke almost everybody is up too. Whats going on, I don't know, buy it seems they want a nice weekend for a change.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 06:21
- I would like to propose a question to all of you at Kitco.
Let's say you have bought shares in a penny dreadful gold company ( I will call them JBG ) for 10 units. Over the next year and a half the price fluctuates, but you hang on grimly and they end up at 19.The next day they open at 25 on huge volume and finish the day at about 27. You hang on. The following day they open at 36 or so and finish the day at 54. You are now holding your cohones with both hands and don't get any sleep that night!The next day they double in price on HUGE volume. They then fluctuate for a couple of days in the 120--140 range.The newspapers are full of the HUGE nickel discovery in Western Australia ( something like a drill core of 40 meters of 10% nickel ) . MY QUESTION IS THIS!!! When did YOU sell in the above described scenario? Steve ( Perth ) was VERY happy to sell at 54. By the way. The above has all happened to us in OZ in the last week. Jubilee Gold ( JBG ) has set the share market on fire down here. My broker says he has a couple of clients who are out buying their new Merx as I speak!When would YOU have sold? I sold long ago and I'm not agonna tell you the price. I hope that this little exersise in my painfully slow two finger typing will at least pose a question to all of you. WHEN do you take a windfall profit Off to get another Victoria Bitter-- the best beer on the planet ( Better than that camel's piss you Yanks drink ) .
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 06:16
Watcher I'll check em out later when I wake up>(I'll check em out later when I wake up):
- Donald, Ted...aren't you guys up yet? Where's all those morning financial links? They really get the job done in a good way.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 06:13
Mike Sheller @Reveille>(@Reveille):
- 6PAK: Marvelous stint as CQ last nite. EB: Why would you bake sourdough bread crumbs in the oven? Wouldn't it be more practical to bake a whole loaf and then break off a few crumbs for your salad? By the way, you have KP today.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 06:12
Watcher @no movies>(@no movies):
- I still haven't read 'em all! I'm too busy trying to keep ahead of the taxman so I can feed my family...I'm beginning to get interested in Platinum. RJ in pretty convincing on those Mounties too. I forgot to bookmark his email...I'm too depressed with my metal stocks...I bought some at two year lows only to see them drop average 10% in the last 2 weeks. I feel like those people that got stuck upside down on the loop ride in europe last week. Say, what happens when a stock hits $.00? Maybe gold stocks will make history after all...just like the market will always go up then conversely gold stocks will go into the minuses! I guess at that point selling short would mean your stock is actually going up.
Hey RJ...what's that email again?
PS: we pulled the plug on the TV over a year ago...sure am glad now...course I am gonna miss Elton singing Candle in the Wind at Di's funeral. Maybe we can get him to do another version for gold. I'll bet LGB could come up with some good lyrics.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 05:16
- Hey Watcher--interesting posts, but you need all night to read them. You've been watching too many conspiracy movies. Go get yourself a 6pak of Primo Hawaiian lager, buy yourself some gold and platinum coins, and then sit back and relax. Asswhyhod--bro. Suckemup.Mahalo nui loa and Melikalikimaka.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 05:02
- Leaner--you forgot Aussie meat pies!!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 04:52
- EB, Come to think of it, Kitco is a salad/chili mix of Spanish onions, Mexican jumping beans, Canadian bacon, American burgs sorry cheese burgs, Italian saugage, French green beans, German cabbage, Chinese mushrooms, Irish Potatoes and Dutch Cheese to garnish all mixed in a chili/salad sauce served over a freshly sliced Arabic pita bread. Sorry if I missed anyones national food staple, but you can see its yum, yum!! Served on a Gold Platter of course!!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 03:56
- Thank God your a 6pak man a doz would be unbelievable!! Excellent postings keep up the good work!!
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 03:56
Pacifica (....not one yet?....)>((....not one yet?....)):
Looks like not a single market on the Pacific's ...western rim... is down tonight.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 03:54
Watcher @it's still early on this island>(@it's still early on this island):
- 6pak...some night when it's slow at Kitco...check this place out...My frien jay hanson has some well researched ideas and has posted one at this sight...I think there mav indeed be reasons why gold is ot of favor...but it's a big puzzle.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 03:54
Watcher @it's still early on this siland>(@it's still early on this siland):
- 6pak...some night when it's slow at Kitco...check this place out...My frien jay hanson has some well researched ideas and has posted one at this sight...I think there mav indeed be reasons why gold is ot of favor...but it's a big puzzle.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 03:19
6pak MAI @ More Notes - same site>(MAI @ More Notes - same site):
- With the GATT Uruguay vote in a lame duck session of Congress in late 1994, one foreign auto company got a multi-million
dollar tax break in the GATT implementing legislation, a certain cellular phone interest was given a special deal, pension
liabilities for certain companies were relieved, controversial changes in the U.S. Savings Bond Program were made and so on.
These items had nothing to do with implementing the text of the Uruguay Round.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 03:16
Kommissar Money Hungry Hollyvood Kapitalists>(Money Hungry Hollyvood Kapitalists):
Bevarre ov Zoviet Zuitkase'z vit Red Star on top.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 03:13
6pak MAI @ Fast Track USofA>(MAI @ Fast Track USofA):
- Questions and Answers About Fast Track Negotiating Authority
As well, currently, the Clinton Administration is close to completion on negotiations of the 29-nation, highly complicated Multilateral Agreement on Investment ( MAI ) , and deep in the talks on the WTO's Financial Services Agreement and parts of Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation ( APEC ) . In fact, the entire MAI negotiation has occurred during a period
where the Administration has not had Fast Track authority.
What is the Origin of Fast Track?
Fast Track was established by President Nixon in 1973 but has its roots even farther back. Under the 1933 Tariff Act, the trade negotiating authority delegated from the Legislative to the Executive branch did not cover non-tariff issues at all. During the Kennedy Round of GATT negotiations -- the Round prior to the mid-1970s Tokyo Round -- the first non-tariff issue arose in trade negotiations: standardizing customs classifications. President Truman was informed by Congress that he needed
to obtain specific congressional approval for the necessary changes to U.S. statutes setting the tariff classification system.
The Executive branch did not do this and instead used its existing proclamation authority to declare the law changed. This did not go over well with Congress. There was a specific congressional vote ( which was not necessary ) to show support for the Kennedy Round itself -- but to also announce that the Customs Classifications could not be changed except through congressional action.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 03:09
Lebed is probably part of a Hollywood Ad campaign promoting PEACEMAKER. With that type of publicity and the fact that many believe in its probability PEACEMAKER will outgross both of the Jurasics.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 02:54
6pak Gold Gold Gold @ Basic Form of Currency Gold is dead!>(Gold Gold Gold @ Basic Form of Currency Gold is dead!):
- I would Very much appreciate others comments regarding these sites.
My take is that Gold has had its day. It would appear that the Modern Artificial Economic System, by Central Banks, do in fact have absolute control. And no fear of deflation, or Government interference, nor, any involvement of the citizen. The issues of the day are in fact impossible to get a handle on. A result, that leaves a person very much discouraged.
Many, persons, that I have discussed these matters with, also, have just
resigned themselves, to the reality that there is absolutely nothing can
be done. Best to be Quiet-Consume-and die. And hope to have a happy life.
Yes, you will be controlled. But, you will be on the team, a team player.
The System ( team ) will serve all your requirements. No one must rock the
boat, do as you are told and all will be as it is designed. Gold, is not
part of the game plan. It is of the past, not part of the future.
A Dangerous Mix I
The Campaign to Eliminate
the Separation Between
Banking and Commerce
by Jake Lewis
Modernization. That is the new buzzword employed by many in the Clinton Administration and in the U.S. Congress to justify various schemes to enhance the power and profits of the financial industry.
There are as many definitions of modernization as there are congressional bills that would allow banks, securities firms and
insurance companies to acquire and be acquired by each other in a new monopoly game.
The game has taken a radical turn in the new Congress as factions of the Senate Banking Committee and the Treasury Department have launched serious efforts which go beyond the melding of financial services to permit a full-scale marriage of banking and commerce -- a total rollback of the Bank Holding Company Act's proscription against banks and commercial corporations owning each other.
A basket case
Volcker's testimony echoed much of what current Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan had told the subcommittee earlier, particularly in areas designed to protect the Fed's turf as the regulator of bank holding companies.
Unlike Greenspan, however, Volcker adamantly refused to go along with proposals to allow banks to fill limited baskets with non-financial holdings.
A Dangerous Mix II
The Case for Preserving
the Separation Between
Banking and Commerce
by Jonathan Brown
This article, and the sidebar examining the German experience with bank-commercial firm conglomerates, are based on The Separation of Banking and Commerce, a 1991 Essential Information report. The full text of the report will soon be posted on the World Wide Web at www.essential.org/pnbcc.
THE MOTIVATIONS OF THE CORPORATIONS that seek to end the separation of banking and commerce are quite diverse. A number of major commercial firms would like to enter the commercial banking business. Some large securities and insurance firms with affiliates engaged in commercial activities wish to be able to enter the banking business if full integration of financial services is permitted without first divesting their commercial affiliates. Some banking institutions seek entry into certain commercial or industrial activities. Perhaps most important of all, a number of large banking organizations wish to terminate or
substantially reduce the statutory authority of the Federal Reserve Board to regulate bank holding companies and their nonbank affiliates. Because the separation of banking and commerce has provided a key rational for the Federal Reserve Board's authority to regulate bank holding companies, abandoning the policy of separation would significantly weaken the
justification for continued regulation of bank holding companies.
Political power play
The final danger posed by combinations between large banks and large commercial firms is the specter of excessive political power. A General-Motors-Citibank merger, or similar mergers, would create economic behemoths with political influence matched in U.S. history perhaps only by J.P. Morgan's money trust. That political power would, at the least, make it difficult to curb the potential economic abuses and dangers associated with bank-commercial firm mergers. More generally, it would
constitute a gigantic impediment to policymaking in the public, rather than the corporate, interest.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 02:14
Who Cares EB>(EB):
but I *like* working. : )
And I been waiting for a nuke to go off for two years now. Let's
go already. Preferrably someplace on the EASTERN seaboard. : )
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 02:12
Who Cares Misc.>(Misc.):
Don't count on videoconferencing at Kitco in the near future. : )
My last project was the Virtual University for the Western
Governor's Association. The infrastructure for delivering
video sucks, at the very least. : ) Bet on ADSL to win,
but it will take years.
Pam Anderson, Jennie McCarthy?! I don't THINK SO. I just
started up _Shadow Conspiracy_ and LINDA HAMILTON is IT. : )
Although my wife is a pretty darn good substitute.
I'm bummed. No thought-provoking commentary today, except Malathir's
staggering insight into the stupidity of the bumpkins. : ) Go, Doc!
Make those bonds INFLATION-INDEXED, and let's ROCK.
I'm outta here, Linda is on. : )
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 02:03
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
- 100 suitcase-sized portable nukes missing in Russia! Each has a one-kiloton warhead capable of killing 70,000 people if detonated in a big city. http://www.drudgereport.com/1.htm I'm sleepy. Time for nightmares.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 02:01
EB Who Cares and Johnny...>(Who Cares and Johnny...):
- All work and no play...
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 01:55
Who Cares Bill Buckler, Treasury Debt>(Bill Buckler, Treasury Debt):
Gad, am I *that* predictable now? Sorry, pals, I worked 60 hours
per week for over a decade, and now I have nothing to do. : )
Buckler, re: Treasury Debt @ 75B left and counting. Not correct.
There is an additional $100B that was exempted from the Debt
Ceiling. I'm pretty darn sure the current ceiling is $5.6T,
which gives us a few more months. : ) I must say, deficit is
on a ROLL again. : )
I... would not be at ALL surprised if some future historian
finds that Uncle Sam was deferring Spring and Summer deficits
into October. : ) The numbers are definitely up again. : )
Besides, I strongly suspect that Congress will bump the
Debt Ceiling without a word to the public. OTOH, maybe we'll
get a circus show again. : )
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 01:43
EB It IS slow around here>(It IS slow around here):
- I can see why 6-pak left. Hmmmmm, what to say until Who Cares shows up.
JMARK - I'm a big fan of CAPS but not ALL CAPS, it hurts my brain ;- ) Hey, politicians are mostly weenie-whackers anyway. I don't know why I try to defend any of them. They don't seem worth the spit...no? And don't be knockin' Tricky-Dick... Gold up twenty cents...yawn...
Away into the night
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 01:43
Strad Master A coin toss?>(A coin toss?):
- ALL: Does anyone have a preference between The Prudent Bear fund and Rydex? I know how each works but just want to take a poll. GEORGE S COLE: are you into Rydex yet?
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 00:23
6pak Sorry !>(Sorry !):
- I thought it was a slow night. But, being the only poster is not fun.
Sorry for taking up the space. No more posts. Let it be Quiet.
- Date: Fri Sep 05 1997 00:14
6pak Power of Government @ Jury = Check and Balance, as Gold should be, per paper wealth.>(Power of Government @ Jury = Check and Balance, as Gold should be, per paper wealth.):
- JURY VETO POWER
America's Founders worried that the government they created might someday grow too powerful, and begin to pass laws which would violate the rights of the very people it was intended to protect: ordinary, peaceful, productive folks. But they kept an ace in the hole, a trump card they believed citizens could use to hold this new, experimental government in check. That ace was the right to a trial by a jury of one's peers.
How a jury can restrain a government? The key is that juries can say no to bad laws and to arbitrary and unjust prosecutions. It's true!
The Founders realized that the temptations of power and corruption would eventually prove to be too much for any of the three branches of our government to resist, let alone check and balance the other branches. They knew that government of, by and for the people meant that the people would every so often have to roll up their sleeves and exert their authority, to act as the final check and balance on the whole system. Since law is the main tool by which a government exerts its control,
trusting juries of ordinary citizens to veto the use of bad law was the logical choice.
So they provided for trial by jury--once in the Constitution, and twice more in the Bill of Rights. In those days, it was part of the definition of the word jury that its members could judge the law as well as the evidence, and the judge would often remind them of this power. For example, if jurors found the law to be unjust or misapplied, or that the defendant's rights had been violated in bringing the him or her to trial, they would acquit for those reasons, despite good evidence.