KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 23:53
6pak Manning @ Tongue-tied (Libertarian-Conservative-Opportunistic, made in USofA)>(Manning @ Tongue-tied (Libertarian-Conservative-Opportunistic, made in USofA)):
Monday, August 25, 1997
Manning attacks government but flounders on perks questions

OTTAWA ( CP ) -- Opposition Leader Preston Manning was quick with his criticisms of the Liberals on Monday but was tongue-tied when asked what constitutes a perk now that he's moved into his new digs at Stornoway.

We have defined that in the past, stammered the Reform leader, who for years denounced taxpayers funding the extravagance of politicians.
It's all right for politicians to accept some taxpayer-funded trappings, as long as they aren't excessive, said Manning, who spent his first night in Stornoway on Saturday.

http://www.canoe.ca/News/aug25_manning.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 23:52
Lan Man @TradersAreUs>(@TradersAreUs):
From FORM 10-Q period ending June 30, 1997 - Coeur d'Alene Mines ( CDE ) :
Other Income - a gain of $5.3 million arising from the sale of gold purchased on the open market which was delivered pursuant to fixed-price forward contracts in the first quarter of 1997.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 23:45
panda @zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz):
We shall see what tomorrow brings. Good night all!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 23:43
panda @?>(@?):
D.A. , Eldorado -- I caught the story quit by accident. I happen to check over at Yahoo. Lo and behold, this story pops up. I checked the DBC calendar and saw the TOCOM futures expirary listed as well as the last notice for palladium deliveries being tomorrow.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 23:30
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Puetz: Your are undoubtedly one of the most courageous folks I have ever seen on the net. Forecasting a 4000+ point drop in the DOW in the next 6 weeks or so is not going out on a limb it is going out without a limb. Hope you are wrong and I bet I won't miss it if you are right.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 23:29
Bob @...inflation watch>(@...inflation watch):
I was talking with a fellow sailor tonight over a beer and he mentioned that his brother-in-law in Alberta works in the Oil patch. His bro said that the oil business in Alberta is booming and there is a great demand for skilled oil folk. I also notice recently in the Toronto press that people in the East are starting to complain publicly about gas prices.

Where there's smoke there's fire.

Earl - thanks.

Goodnight folks.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 23:16
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Lurker: You are right. Index funds will be one of the many contributing factors in the developing crash. Other factors already in place or soon to develop are: extreme over-valuation, excessive leveraging, program selling, staggering corporate pension-fund losses, low amounts of liquid assets to stop the panic once it gets started, and international liquidity problems.

The largest mutual fund is Fidelity Magellan -- with $58 billion in assets. The 2nd largest mutual fund is Vanguard Index 500 -- with $42 billion in assets. You are correct, Index Funds have no cash reserves. Over $100 billion is now invested in Index Funds, in an industry that has over $2 billion under management. So when investors sell their Index Funds, corresponding sales will immediately hit the floor of the NYSE.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 23:07
Front Mooney: / BART>(Mooney: / BART):

Oh you sly guy ....

BELFREDUS ... From my Latin classes at St. Mike's I remember that that means THE BELL OF FRED .... In other words Fredie's bell .... And you thought I didn't know Latin !

Bellum Glorius my friend .....

Other than that, I'll excuse the errors of your ways since you really did excuse yourself previously. However, it was not my fault that it was missed by yours truly, as Bart had not, at that time, instigated the re-change of the change . I'll blame the additional a on excitment while typing at an old age rather than an actual error . ( Just so my record remains unbleamished! ) .... now,

I noted the other day about the amount of monies that had entered the market after the drop last week. Donald, in his kindness, again noted it today as about 6B being used to create the 300 point rise after the 240 drop on Monday. With that in mind, it's not too much of a streach to note that that amount becomes roughly 2B per day to keep the market afloat. That's about 42B per month. There's only 25B coming in each month total. I think we're short a load here, and it should be a main reason for a drop. Even if everyone doesn't sell save one, the prices will drop as one share affects all and buying/demand is necessary to make a market rise. Sitting still will cause a drop because of the lack of incoming new money. The index funds will be the killer of course as has been suggested. The only hope is the fed to buy yet again S&P futures as was done Friday to save the ship by repainting the water line. Unfortunately, as the captain of the Titanic found out, that doesn't seem to work, especially in rough seas. Take Care

BART: Thanks so much .... I feel a lot better now ....

TTFN


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 23:07
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Fundy: I hate to buy in a bear market. Even though the DJIA may rally sharply -- say from 3000 to 5000 over a period of 3 or 4 months -- I'd prefer to mostly avoid the rally. It would probably be OK to buy some gold stocks after the crash, but that's about it.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 23:03
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Puetz: Ok Ok I got your message and I am way ahead of you re stocks but for unrelated reasons. We shall see what October brings. Do you have a prediction on the utility of buying after your October crash or is that too far in the future for you to see at this point.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 23:00
Mooney @Sydney>(@Sydney):
Can't stand all that flatlining excitement from overseas tonight. C Ya in ta marnin'!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 22:57
Sword Searcher Bible and Astrology>(Bible and Astrology):
Mike Sheller * From the word of GOD.

But God turned away and gave them over to the worship of the heavenly bodies. Acts 7:42

All the counsel you have received has only worn you out! Let your astrologers come forward, those stargazers who make predictions month by month, let them save you from what is coming upon you . . . Each of them goes on in his error; there is not one that can save you. Isaiah 47:13-15


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 22:57
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Fundy: The stock market started it's 2nd wave down in what will soon come to be known as the Total Collapse of 1997 -- a much greater crash that 1929. Historically, crashes develop over a period of about 8-to-10 weeks in a series of 3 waves, with each wave down intensifying in strength.

In 1997, the 1st wave down ended around noon on 8-18-97. After a 3-day rally, the 2nd wave down began. That's where we are now. After another 2 weeks, another rally will take place -- keeping the bulls bullish. Then, when that rally ends, the real panic will begin, and it will last 2-to-3 weeks.

The bloodbath has started. And it won't be over until the DJIA falls to between 4500 and 3000 by early October 1997 -- about 6 weeks from now. Stay long stocks at your own risk.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 22:55
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Panda -- That does strike me as serious business going on! Someone trying to do some CYA!? Should be very bullish. That being so, why would they broadcast it to the world? That would be my only question. 'Tis true though that September is about here. Obligation fullfilling time! Most interesting!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 22:52
D.A. another.tidbit>(another.tidbit):
Panda:

One last item. It seems that the order books in gold are looking pretty good tonight. There is scale up buying below the market and stop buying above the market. This is a good sign. The tide is definitely turning. Perhaps a tsunami in the making.

Until tomorrow. Good night.



Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 22:46
Lurker Index funds>(Index funds):
Thanks Bart for Kitco, it's a great site....made so by all of you who post here. It's the first place I go when I get on line.

Has anyone given any thought to the effect *index* funds will have in this volital market. Fund managers have the luxury of being able to hold some cash. If the market drops and some shareholders drop out, they can settle without having to liquidate any stock holdings. However, index funds keep NO cash, every dime is invested. When the market drops, they will have to sell holdings to settle with withdrawing shareholders. It seems to me these index funds could be the catalyst to a crash. Does anyone know how much money is in Index funds vs managed funds?


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 22:45
D.A. here.we.go.again>(here.we.go.again):
Panda:

Thanks for bringing this up. I had no idea, I was just about to hit the hay and took a final look at Kitco.

The Pa market has been very quiet of late and fairly orderly with cash market spreads of around 3$. It seems quite bizarre that out of nowhere an emergency meeting is being held. I called up my overnight desk and they too are clueless. Since it would be truly wierd if the Tocom called an emergency meeting to announce that the Russians were making large deliveries and thus the shortage was over one must conclude that there is some problem with upcoming physical deliveries. As I have mentioned before, I have heard that Tiger fund had a lot of paper Pa coming due starting in Sept. It is within the realm of possibility that part of this position has been translated into long futures positions on the TOCOM. If this is true, the exchange may have a heads up that someone is not going to be able to deliver. They may be trying to preempt a default by raising margins or something more ugly where they bring about the spectre of changing the rules. We will know more in a little bit, but it sure does look like a buy signal.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 22:33
panda @comments>(@comments):
Bart -- You are a very BUSY man!

FWIW -- I get this strange feeling that the markets are marking time, a pregnant pause, if you will. This is not a prediction, just my feeling. One thing I do see in the charts is that there is a correlation between the market doing well and gold stocks going up. If the market corrects due to inflationary fears, the metals stocks will do well. BUT, if the market 'CRASHES', then I think the precious metals stocks will be toast also. So, for those wishing for a crash.... BTW, I have a few friends who would like to see just such an event. Just so they can buy in at cheaper levels and 'ride the market up'. Talk about an almost religious faith in the markets! I have recommended psych 101 to these folks... There's going to be a lot of people crying in their beers someday, I just hope that I'm not one of them. :- ) )


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 22:23
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net):
Moans & Groans & Mutual Funds: Watch out for the 'Highway Patrol'! ::

Farmer Joe decided his injuries from the accident were serious enough to
take the trucking company ( responsible for the accident ) to court.

In court the trucking companies' fancy lawyer was questioning Farmer
Joe. Didn't you say, at the scene of the accident, 'I'm fine,' said
the lawyer.

Farmer Joe responded, Well I'll tell you what happened. I had just
loaded my favorite mule Bessie into the.......

I didn't ask for any details, the lawyer interrupted, just answer the
question. Did you not say, at the scene of the accident, 'I'm fine!'

Farmer Joe said, Well I had just got Bessie into the trailer and I was
driving down the road...

The lawyer interrupted again and said, Judge, I am trying to establish
the fact that, at the scene of the accident, this man told the Highway
Patrolman on the scene that he was 'just fine'. Now several weeks after
the accident he is trying to sue my client. I believe he is a fraud.
Please tell him to simply answer the question.

By this time the Judge was fairly interested in Farmer Joe's answer and
said to the lawyer, I'd like to hear what he has to say about his favorite
mule Bessie.

Joe thanked the Judge and proceeded, Well as I was saying, I had just
loaded Bessie, my favorite mule, into the trailer and was driving her
down the highway when this huge semi-truck and trailer ran the stop sign
and smacked my truck right in the side. I was thrown into one ditch and
Bessie was thrown into the other. I was hurting real bad and didn't want
to move. However, I could hear ole Bessie moaning and groaning. I knew
she was in terrible shape just by her groans. Shortly after the accident
a Highway Patrolman came on the scene. He could hear Bessie moaning and
groaning so he went over to her. After he looked at her he took out his gun
and shot her between the eyes.

Then the Patrolman came across the road with his gun in his hand and
looked at me. He said, Your mule was in such bad shape I had to shoot
her. How are you feeling?

...................................................................
I wonder how the mutual fund managers are feeling; I wonder how much they're beginning to 'moan & groan'? ......

lot's of loaded guns around .....








Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 22:19
panda @hot palladium markets?>(@hot palladium markets?):
Now this is an interesting story, albeit a short story.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/25/z0009_98.html

D.A. -- Got any comments on this news item? :- )


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 22:11
badger @dbingo!>(@dbingo!):
Carl,thats him!! He used to be a regularelf but as the market has continued to new highs, he suddenly is'nt invited to the tea party anymore.It's interesting to see the palpable, almost electric polarity this market's run has and is causing between co-workers, family members,spouses,and even, yes, Wall Street Weekers!!!!!!!!!!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 22:02
Carl back@badger>(back@badger):
badger, I don't watch Wall Steet Week, but I suppose James Grant has been on there, although as you say he's a bear on stocks now. ( Probably not the sort of fellow that they would have very often. ) I believe he used to do the weekly piece in Baron's on interest rates ( now Forsythe's ) before he started his own news letter. He's the really worth listening to. By the way, he recently turned bullish on gold.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:54
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Miro: I think you are right. Recent articles in the media are suggesting that downsized companies are beginning to fall behnd as a result of worn/burned out employees and no cash spent on product development. Government here is being reduced by about 14 000 provincial civil servants from about 50 000. Services are dropping as you might expect. Same thing should happen in private industry.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:52
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Fundy -- Don't even ask me how that got posted again 'cause I do not even have a clue!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:50
pyramid .>(.):
( Carl 20:18 ) Your question: What will be the spark that sets off the crash in mania-inflated paper assets? is the $64,000 question.

I would suggest you re-ask your question at the beginning of the day, 0700 EDT ( USA ) . You might propose it as that day's theme. The quality and quantity of responses will be better at that time. Besides, it will give me time to think of an answer.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:49
badger @grammer skool>(@grammer skool):
Mooney; badger loves colloquialisims, he does. My compliments and regards to good mooney and an inducement t'word such when'er whim strikes; a note on belfreeze, ( that's plural ) ,t'is an uncommon old word thus spelling has varied over time, ( monks was uncommon sods ta spell'in! ) .


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:47
Miro productivity?>(productivity?):
Nomercy : My personal observation fully supports the claim that the
productivity increase was not real but just a pure paper manipulation
and increased labor-crunch approach. In paper manipulation companies
used all possible ways how to cut expenses ( e.g., reduce work space,
reduced benefits, overhead ) and to increase output ( e.g., forward
booking ) . Labor-crunch approach means increased work hours ( in my
profession without pay ) decrease benefits and educational support. In my
profession with rapidly changing technology, you need constantly learn
the new things. It used to be that the company sent you to a class, now
you are on your own, learn whichever you can.

Both approaches stretched things to the limit, with no reserve capacity
to cover any downturn, mistake, labor unrest, lost business or business
opportunity. While in the past, when things went a bit wrong, you could
use some of the spare capacities. Not anymore - they were all used to
boost the company profit in the last few years - it’s time to pay!



Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:44
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Fundy -- There are REAL good odds, given the scenarios developing/happening in the currencies, the state of the stock market, 10 year anniverseries, multi ten year anniverseries, etc, etc, that you will find a lot of days soon where you wished you were wearing scuba gear! What goes around comes around!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:44
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Bill -- You ask if it'll start with limit up moves or gradual moves. Greatest odds are for gradual/no-limit up days. Let us not be-little some of these 'gradual' days though. But, who really knows the kind of moves that come out of the 'hat'? You are either in, or you're not, under any sizable move! The metals are fickle!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:44
D.A. pop.or.fizzle>(pop.or.fizzle):
Donald:

Your last post is indicative of the why 'this time its different'. Each time some large institution gets into big trouble, a government is there to bail them out. When it happens to a country, the IMF or some other group of 'do-gooders' steps into the fray. The net result is that the defaults and liquidations don't happen on time and instead are rolled up into more government paper, which if need be is bought with other government paper. In the final analysis all of the debt rolls up to the one entity that can rewrite the terms of its obligations.

If all of these debts were written against gold, or some other physical deliverable which could not be manufactured out of the ether, then I would be completely sympathetic to the deflation scenario. However, I can't get past the printing press solution which will be so easy and so available.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:40
LMB home>(home):
Excellent editorial
http://www.the-privateer.com/corresp.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:40
6pak Ted @ 20:24>(Ted @ 20:24):
Ted, that Sean Whelan must know good hospitality.
Making a killing on the empties, is a good sign. Dangerous, but a
good measurement, of a good time had by all. : ) : ) : ) enjoy, and take
care Eh!



Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:35
Mooney @Front>(@Front):
Front - You Sir are one of the 20-30 others that I was referring to in my recent post to Fundy. However, please don't pull that famous Glenn line of never being wrong! :- ) I admitted in my post to Donald this morning that I was in a hurry and my verbage was in a state of flux and thus subject to error. ( So what else is new. ) Were you in a similar hurry when you spelt Dweomercraeft correctly the first time but immediately afterwords added an extra 'a', EH? ;- ) Thank-you for correcting my minor mistake about the belfry, ( I too must have bahts up there ) , yet I offer two minor excuses, the first being the weakest. 1 ) Near Warden and Lawrence there is a crescent named Frey. Passing by it constantly it thus sticks in my mind and throws me for a loop every time I contemplate belfrys. 2 ) I often use archaic words and thus my spelling sometimes reverts to the ancient ways. I think you'll find, if you delve into this issue deeply enough, that the term belfry originates from the medieval Latin term belfredus and again partially from the old french 'berfrei'. I think you can now understand how I inadvertantly combined these two ancient root words to come up with my preferred spelling of belfrey - much more expressive and phonetically correct - wouldn't you agree?
Dweomercraeft - the magic arts. I don't recall using the term HENWAY, however I have used heanling - A humble or base person and also hoddypeak - A simpleton and/or hoodpick - A miser or skinflint. cosh - A small cottage. Dingle - A shaded dell, a hollow between hills. Dimpse - Twilight. Crab-skuit - A small, open fishing boat with sails. ( You should have known that one from the locals, Ted - or is fishing out that way TRUELY a forgotten way of life? ) I could go on but then you won't have anymore fun, Front, figuring out the meanings!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:35
badger @home>(@home):
CARL, re: your recent post;, which Grant?,not the one from Wall Street Week is it? If so,I like that guy, one of the only somewhat bearish folk on that perinially ( yea!! Rome's burning!! ) , show.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:31
D.A. still.waiting>(still.waiting):
GFD:

No, our system has not yet gotten the green light on gold. The last buy signal was many years ago and only occured in simulation land. We got very, very close, within a few dollars earlier in the year, but never got a signal. Things are again looking up, and the stars are again nearing alignment. As of today, we are now long all the precious metals except for the yellow one. I'd like to see a clean sweep.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:19
Carl inflation@present>(inflation@present):
See Grant's interest rate observer - recent issues. Many of you seem to be looking for inflation. Stop looking - it's here. There's nothing wrong with paper if it can be relied on to be converted into something else and actually stands for something. What we have now is paper that stands very little, eg. Total market cap of Intel and Microsoft equal GNP of India ( Barons couple weeks ago ) . This will end when some people holding the paper need to convert it. Lots of things could set that off. Debt failure is my candidate-probably in the far east.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:16
kiwi Unexpected Growth>(Unexpected Growth):
Economy boiling over...inflation

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news101n.htm


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:14
Donald @Home>(@Home):
South Korea: Seoul to aid banks with
$3.9bn package

TUESDAY AUGUST 26 1997

By Jason Neely in Seoul

South Korea yesterday announced a $3.9bn aid package to help the
country's embattled banking sector following a recent string of large
business collapses.

Kang Kyong-shik, finance and economy minister, said the financial
assistance would be channelled through the state-run Korea Assets
Management Corporation, a government agency set up by the finance
ministry to take over non-performing assets from the banks and sell them in
an effort to clean up balance sheets.

The announcement followed the emergence of profound difficulties last
month at the Kia group, the country's eighth largest conglomerate and the
latest in a line of high-profile corporate casualties that have left banks with
non-performing loans worth more than $25bn. Mr Kang also said Korea
First Bank ( KFB ) , Kia's main creditor, would receive a special loan which
local media, citing KFB sources, estimated at between $2.22bn and
$3.34bn at an interest rate of 8.5 per cent.

The finance ministry said it wanted to head off uncertainty and instability
in the market and vowed it would provide sufficient liquidity to assist
financial institutions in need.

But the announcement disappointed the stock exchange, where the
investment and finance sector lost 1.38 per cent by the close of trading.
Analysts said investors expected the central bank to extend a loan to KFB
at a concessionary rate of about 3 per cent, which would allow the bank to
profit on commercial loans worth about three times that rate.

Analysts said the government wanted to settle nerves ahead of an
assessment of the banking sector by Moody's and Standard and Poor's,
the US credit rating agencies, slated for next month.

Kia's debts of $10.6bn are the biggest of nine big companies that have had
difficulties this year. Korea First was the most heavily exposed, but it also
suffered from the fall of the Hanbo group, whose flagship steelmaker in
January left behind $5.8 billion in non-performing loans.

The finance minister said an additional $556m would be offered next
month by the authorities in a move to ease further the liquidity problems at
the banks.

Mr Kang also said yesterday that to boost foreign capital reserves, ceilings
on capital transactions such as overseas facility investment would be
raised, as would the ceiling on foreign investment on the stock exchange.
He said the ministry would seek to exempt from capital gains taxes the sale
of collateralised land and the sale of land to repay bank loans.








Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:02
Donald @Home>(@Home):
BILL BUCKLER: That Op-Ed piece is great, accurate in every detail and in its conclusion. It actually understates the problem as it does not mention the fact that the accumulation of debt by individuals and corporations has been at a GREATER rate than that of the US government.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:01
nomercy S.Roach-Morgan Stanley (Workers Backlash)>(S.Roach-Morgan Stanley (Workers Backlash)):
US: The Worker Backlash

[NOTE: The following has been adapted from an op-ed feature that appeared in the New York Times
on Sunday, August 24, 1997.]

The just-resolved United Parcel Service strike was a shot across the bow of the inflationless 1990s.
American workers are now beginning to challenge the very forces that have led to a spectacular
resurgence in corporate profitability and competitiveness in the United States. They are, in effect,
saying no to years of corporate cost cutting that has been directed primarily at the nation's labor
force.

The strike and the settlement, which was largely on the union's terms, appears to question the wisdom
of a Federal Reserve that, by leaving monetary policy steady, seems content to ignore the danger of
renewed inflation. And the settlement underscores the potential for a sharp decline in the ever frothy
stock and bond markets.

These concerns are certainly at odds with today's conventional wisdom. Many believe that the United
States economy has entered a new era. According to this tale, the post-cold-war forces of
globalization, de-regulation, and a technology-led Information Age have combined to produce a rare
and powerful recovery, led by increased worker productivity.

In such a scenario, wage increases are largely offset by increased worker productivity. As a result,
cost pressures are held in check, inflation remains quiescent, and corporate profit margins widen
inexorably. And the financial markets enjoy the best of all worlds: low interest rates that underpin a
strong bond market and healthy corporate earnings that nourish an ever rising stock market.

The productivity-led recovery offers ample returns for shareholders and workers alike. Labor can
reap higher wages as its productivity increases, while investors can reap handsome returns.

It's quite possible, however, that a very different scenario has been responsible for the good news on
inflation and corporate profits in recent years. Call it a labor-crunch recovery -- one that flourishes
only because corporate America puts unrelenting pressure on its work force.

This is a much tougher and more pessimistic vision of the United States economy in the 1990s.
Pressured by intense global competition and frustrated by efforts to boost white-collar productivity in
information or service industries, businesses become fixated on slashing labor costs, which account for
close to 70% of all corporate expenses in the United States.

Intimidated by the ultimate threat of job security, labor initially complies with corporate America's
demands. Companies hire more temporary and part-time workers, and full-time workers are made to
stretch their work schedules as never before. At the same time, employees begin to bear more of the
cost of their benefits, including health insurance. And then there's the clincher: wages adjusted for
inflation are squeezed, leading to a near stagnation that has persisted for nearly two decades.

Unlike the productivity-led recovery, the labor-crunch recovery is not sustainable; as we see it, it is a
recipe for mounting tensions, in which a raw power struggle occurs between capital and labor.
Investors are initially rewarded beyond their wildest dreams but those rewards could eventually be
wiped out by a worker backlash.

Investors are quick to repudiate the case for worker backlash and defend the miracles of the
productivity-led recovery. And why shouldn't they? The latter promises no end in sight to the glorious
bull markets of the 1990s.

But there's one small problem with this grand vision of the brave new world. There does not seem to
be a shred of credible evidence in the macro-economy that supports the notion of a meaningful
improvement in America's productivity performance.

Indeed, in the Commerce Department's just-completed comprehensive revision of the national
economic accounts, the subpar productivity performance of the 1990s was left essentially unaltered. It
found that the United States experienced average annual gains of slightly less than 1% over the past six
years, little different from the disappointing performance of the 1980s and less than half the gains of the
1950s and 1960s.

It's at this point that productivity revivalists typically claim foul. They argue that the data must simply be
wrong. Even Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, appears to have embraced this
point of view, and it seems to have had a major impact on the Fed's recent decisions to leave
monetary policy unchanged.

But the weight of evidence is increasingly in favor of the labor-crunch scenario. And it's not just the
official statistics on productivity that favor this argument. There has also been a dramatic realignment of
the nation's economic pie, with a much larger slice going to capital and a smaller one going to labor.
Corporate profits surged to 9.6% of GDP in 1996, the highest share in 28 years, and labor
compensation stood at 58% of GDP in 1996, well below the high of 59% hit in the late 1980s.

Which takes us back to the recently settled UPS strike. One strike hardly makes a trend. But there
can be no mistaking the message from the nation's most significant work stoppage since 1983. Today,
with the unemployment rate at a 24-year low, labor unions were emboldened to take action. And with
corporate profitability at its highest in a generation, management has figured out that it can afford to
give workers a raise. For UPS, the cost of settlement is hardly trivial. By some estimates, it will
eventually cost as much as $1 billion a year, and that comes right out of the company's bottom line.

In the end, that's what worker backlash is all about. It speaks of a labor force that challenges the very
notion of cost cutting that has been central to America's economic recovery in the 1990s.

Whether future labor battles are fought over wages, part-time work, mandatory overtime, temporary
workers or pension and medical benefits, the message should be the same: gone are the days of a
docile American work force that once acquiesced to slash-and-burn corporate restructuring.

The potential for worker backlash raises profound questions. Can higher inflation and thinner profit
margins be far behind? Can the Federal Reserve afford to keep interest rates low? Can the financial
markets continue to enjoy unbounded exuberance?

As the pendulum of economic power begins to swing from capital back to labor, these are the very
risks we must now begin to confront.

Stephen Roach ( New York )


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 21:00
Bill whaas@mindspring.com>(whaas@mindspring.com):
I'm a newby - question: will gold price rebound likely be heralded by limit ups? Or, is it likely to be gradual - opinions appreciated.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:54
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Bill Buckler -- Well Said! I'd like to see how they pull ThiS fish out of the frying pan! HAR! There is only one possible way; TRUE money! AH, but the transition! But, perhaps their scenario says that the NWO is more easily accomplished by letting it go to the end. I'm sure we'll all see!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:52
GFD Systemic Gold>(Systemic Gold):
D.A.: Did your systems ever go long gold I know that you posted that it was very close a couple of times but I can't recall you ever stating that your systems took the plunge...


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:51
vronsky Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - VI (August 25, 1997)>(Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - VI (August 25, 1997)):
Financial Tsunami Looming in Land of the Setting Sun. Oracle provides ample evidence Japan’s Financial Scandals & Crisis will drive US stocks and dollar down, rates & GOLD UP:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle825.html



Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:43
kiwi Gold volatility>(Gold volatility):
Anybody know of sites doing gold price volatilities versus the various currencies? These guys only do inter-currencies.

http://www.forc.com.bm/



Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:38
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm

FDPMX pulls into the lead. Is this what George Cole
was talking about, as a necessary condition for a BIG rally?



Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:35
Carl @home>(@home):
Ted- Thanks for the welcome. I like what what I've seen ( for the most part ) . Good info and links!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:34
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Carl -- Paper! Because it is all debt based, it will kill itself. You are now beginning to see the killing happening. It does however take so many unwilling victims!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:32
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Thailand devaluation news; 176,300 out of work, 970,400 part timed, 23,142 temporary layoff. State owned Oil Co. 1.6 billion in dollar losses due to devaluation, 3 billion baht in receivables from the public and 3 billion from transit authority. Plus more horror stories.
http://www.loxinfo.co.th/~bday/


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:32
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com):
In view of the ongoing discussion here at Kitco re Inflation/Deflation, I think this would be of interest.

On the surface, it seems ridiculous to compare the German hyper-inflation of 1922-23 to what is presently occuring in the world's financial system in general and on the U.S. stock market in particular. Yet there is a very ominous parallel indeed. I have put up a new Op-Ed at
http://www.the-privateer.com/corresp.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:27
Ted @Carl>(@Carl):
Hi Carl ( 20:18 ) ....Welcome to a great site!!!...


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:24
Ted @6Pak>(@6Pak):
Hi 6Pak! My guest Sean Whelan has been drinkin toooo many of you...He's leaving tomorrow and we'll make a killing on all the returns...Yeah as you know,I'm not a big supporter of people expecting something for nothing and unfortunately it's endemic to much of the Canadian Maritimes
....Have never seen such a high livingmaterialistic society that has the nerve to call its self a depressed ( economically ) area and I presume Labrador-Newfoundland is much the same....Have seen real poverty and hardship in USA innner cities and this is the life of Reilly in relative terms....I'm ramblin....and mean no offense but it's just the way I see things....Hope all goes well in your part of Canada!...It is a GREAT country!......a kinder+gentler society.....


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:22
Spud Master ides of September....>(ides of September....):
Arden! Ubi es, mi amici? Cough up the latest Au/Ag warehouse figures please! What do you feel is the flash point for contracts-to-physcial-gold ratio?

Spud


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:18
nomercy Indonesia>(Indonesia):

Rates have soared as the central bank moved to
defend the rupiah this month, with three-month
interbank rates reaching 47.2 per cent yesterday.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:18
Carl waiting@home>(waiting@home):
Hello to all. I'm a newby and thought I'd ID myself and not just continue to listen in. Question: What will be the spark that sets off the crash in mania-inflated paper assets?


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:17
nomercy S&P downgrades Malasya sovereign debt>(S&P downgrades Malasya sovereign debt):
On Thursday, Standard & Poor's cut its
credit-rating outlook on Malayan Banking and
Arab-Malaysian Merchant Bank to negative from
stable.

It also warned that the slump in the value of the
ringgit could trigger an increase in bad debts.

The move came only three days after the ratings
agency cut its outlook on Malaysia's sovereign debt
to stable from positive.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970826004933110&top=mar&template=DNoCommas.htx&maxfieldsize=1314


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:12
REB na>(na):
Kaplan has an interesting comment tonight about housing prices in NYC.
He should have added that the BLS has in its wisdom taken housing prices out of the CPI.
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:11
nomercy S.Korea- Won tumbles to record low>(S.Korea- Won tumbles to record low):
In a highly unusual move, the Bank of Korea
announced early in the morning it would sell dollars
in the interbank market to ease the won's decline.
Dealers estimated the central bank sold US$300
million to $400 million in the spot and $400 million
to $500 million in the forward trading markets.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970826004933097&top=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=1906


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:09
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Mooney; Earl; Eldorado:
Mooney get a grip. All I said was that the 3 would be the best predictors on Kitco and they would be. I realise the Hepcat has tormented you and exasperated others all over the Net for months but forget it. He's gone. Flag may yet Go to the Moon.
Eldorado; I agree.
Earl I took nothing personal from your last sentence.
Amazing nonetheless that on a conservative forum like Kitco a simple bottom line statement that summarizes the recent events accurately I believe gets such heated responses. I guess there is more to the community here than the bottom line and maybe that's why we like it.
My preference is to anticipate the future price regardless of rational. Lots of rational for last weeks DOW bloodbath but no bloodbath. It is predicted this week again. I'd rather have accurate predictions with minimal or simple bases that elaborate and repeated errors.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:04
nomercy China-USA (Sales of arms by US to Taiwan)>(China-USA (Sales of arms by US to Taiwan)):
Beijing yesterday hit out at the United States for
selling arms to Taiwan and called for improved
relations ahead of the Jiang-Clinton summit.

Speaking during Prime Minister Li Peng's state visit
to Singapore, Foreign Office spokesman Shen
Guofang said: We hope to maintain a healthy
relationship with the US as this is in the world
interest.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970826022402055&top=china&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2013


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 20:01
6pak Voisey Bay @ Newfoundland Labrador>(Voisey Bay @ Newfoundland Labrador):
Ted @ 17:59: Yes, Voisey Bay is close to home, for your part of Canada.
This voisey bay issue, is about to develope into a very hot issue.

The unemployment, and welfare, in Nova Scotia, Quebec, Newfoundland, is
very extreme rate. Yes, I know you are *not* a supporter of the welfare,
and unemployed : ) : ) : ) Remember, Liberals and Jobs,Jobs,Jobs.
35,000 cod fishermen out of work, and they were told a lie.

These First Nations People, have been financed, for years, by Government,
getting ready for the building of the mine. One must ask the question,
why, at this late date, this fight. Inco re-purchasing shares. ?

Inco has 167 million outstanding shares, and they are repurchasing
16 million common shares, one should question the actions of Inco.?
Something is fishy, Deputy Fisheries Minister ? : ) : ) : )
That is my take, Take care



Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 19:57
Front Mooney and bw:>(Mooney and bw:):

Mooney:

I quote your 9:53 :

Or are you asking me to perform Dweomercraeft for those with bats in their belfrey?

OK, I give up. What's a Dweomercraaeft? Sounds like something you drive around in the Florida everglades. Should I get my knickers in a knot about it?

BTW Never having made a mistake .... well actually only once, I thought I'd made a mistake but really hadn't, so that one doesn't count .... I'm in a perfect spot to inform you that Belfrey should actually be Belfry.... too much 50? or too little Canadian? ( :- ) ) The KNOB would be proud at your attendance ( :- ) Is that where the dictionary's located?

I finally found out what's a HENWAY ... 5 pounds ....

TTFN

bw: re your evaluation of the utility average. I believe it's closer to the level of 234 rather than higher. That was an important support failure previously.

TTFN


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 19:52
vronsky COLE’S MARKET INSIGHTS by George S. Cole, CFA & Economist>(COLE’S MARKET INSIGHTS by George S. Cole, CFA & Economist):
“Interestingly, the other precious metals -- silver, platinum, and palladium -- have all breached their 100 day moving averages. And these whites frequently lead the yellow:”
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/cole825.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 19:43
Mooney @Fundy>(@Fundy):
Fundy ( @theBay-NOT Eatons! ) I have NO idea why you continually try to cannonize the one main entity whose ONLY purpose was ( admittedly ) to disrupt this site. He continually caused havoc by various methods, including, ( but not limited to ) , badgering, distortion and outright lies. His feeble call of 325 was just another tormenting tactic in his bag of tricks. A call which he made AFTER the market itself had been in freefall for about 12 months. Many, many others had also been stating that they continued the trend ( at that point ) to continue. Selby, however, WAS amongst those whom had predicted a lower gold price long ago, along with giving his reasoning, ( something which John never did, no matter how many times he was asked ) . There are many, many personalities here who are more worthy of your words of appreciation than your banished 'hero'. Glenn, APH, aurophile, D.A., oldman, bb fisher, Eldorado, Ray, Fleming ( where are you man? ) , and at least 20-30 others ( sorry for my ommissions in the interest of brevity folks ) . There are countless examples, but so that 'newbies' are aware that there were many predictions of lower gold prices and that we are not like horse with blinders on around here, I am taking the liberty of reposting one of my comments from June 1996 in which I mention just that fact that MANY people had been making such predictions. I hope that this about puts the nail in the coffin of the 'Johnny Come Lately'. This place, as most noted immediately after his removal, became again what it used to be, and not just one individual's litterbox.
Never have so many wasted so much time and effort on so little.

My post from June 1996 follows. ( And I was basically only agreeing with the work of aurophile and others. )
Date: Tue Jun 4 23:39 - ( 1996!-Mooney :- ) -
Mooney ( moonstep@idirect.com ) :
First of all I would like to say that I hope Chet is right. Glenn's
prediction at 5 AM on Tuesday morning ( 3-1/2 hrs before the
market opened in New York ) was prescient. No matter what your
investment outlook, whether it be short, medium or long term, it
must certainly be helpful to be out of the market if there is a market
correction of any sizeable depth or length. For instance, gold from
the $415 area three months ago downward to $387 now, and who
knows, perhaps it's not over? Stranger things have been known to
happen. In his recent comment, Richard fails to take into account
the many, many individuals and sources ( including the market
itself ) who have looked upon $390 spot gold as a major support
level. Others, including Fleming and myself have stated that a
second major support level is critical at $386 - 387. If this level is
broken on a New York closing for more than two days in a row -
look below. To all who say they're in it for the long term - that's
great - but there are also a lot of people who play the market
short-term and/or intermediate term and Glenn's prediction this
morning was not only useful but absolutely phenomenal in timing
and accuracy. Out of 156 days this year, he called the ONE day that
spot broke significantly below $390. Glenn you are to be
congratulated on a feat comparable to scoring the winning goal in
the seventh game of the Stanley Cup.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 19:42
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Fundy: I apologize for the final sentence of my last post. It was rash, boorish, ill considered and unwarranted.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 19:41
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Fundy -- There are REAL good odds, given the scenarios developing/happening in the currencies, the state of the stock market, 10 year anniverseries, multi ten year anniverseries, etc, etc, that you will find a lot of days soon where you wished you were wearing scuba gear! What goes around comes around!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 19:38
Donald @Home>(@Home):
July supermarket sales fall 4.1%, dept.
store sales down 3.4%
July supermarket sales nationwide fell 4.1% from a year earlier to
1,470.8 billion yen for the fourth straight month of decline, the Japan
Chain Stores Association reported Monday.

Sales at department stores fell 3.4% year on year to 939.8 billion yen,
marking the fourth straight month of decline, the Japan Department
Stores Association said the same day.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 19:31
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Fundy ( 17:14 ) : Comparing GSC's comments and prognostications to the late departed Hep.nut, isn't even in the same universe of reality. .... Seems to me that Hep's updates are freely available by email. Why bother with this forum. IMO you continue to find your head 'up and locked'.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 19:25
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Donald ( 17:13 ) : Love that comment. Talking Heads should speak with their personal holdings prominently displayed. Outstanding idea! Worthy of an email to CNBC and others. Eh?


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 19:18
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Bart -- NO threads! There is only a very small proportion of postings here that might be of no interest to any particular reader. Thanks!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 19:10
Donald @Home>(@Home):
DA: I have always agreed that we are in an inflationary period. My previous posts predicting a deflation have always indicated that the deflation would start with dropping stock prices. Debt is the problem, including debt to buy stocks, real estate, educations, vacations, etc. Folks are counting on inflation to pay for those things. It won't happen. We are in a credit inflation, we will have a debt deflation.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 19:08
tanami @*&!!}>(@*&!!}):
Bart, a plea. Information overload is killing me!! It did not meet with a favourable response before but threading seems the only way. Maybe a well though out design would give the best of both worlds, i am sure people would be able to convey the content of their posts in headers of
six or seven succinct words. Threading seems just another word for indexing.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 19:04
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
GVC -- You beat me to it by a few minutes. My take on it is that gold has very little downward movement left if this runup is to continue in the short term. One thing going for the runup is the bit of weakness portrayed in the stocks today. After Fridays late rally back, they had everything required for a continuation today. But no. That did not happen and it leaves the barnyard gate WIDE open for a stampede of the bulls! If that should happen, Dec gold has a very good possibility of caressing 336. Also remember. No London last night. Everything happened on very low volume, with a continuation today. It WILL BE interesting tonight/tomorrow! If all else fails, watch what happens after the holiday!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 19:03
6pak Voisey Bay @ Court in NFLD. Canada>(Voisey Bay @ Court in NFLD. Canada):
Monday, August 25, 1997
Aboriginals return to court to stop Voisey's construction

ST. JOHN'S, Nfld. ( CP ) -- One of two aboriginal groups involved in a protest at the Voisey's Bay mine site in northern Labrador made another attempt Monday to legally stop construction.

The Labrador Inuit Association is seeking an injunction in Newfoundland Court of Appeal that would force nickel giant Inco Ltd. to stop building a temporary road and airstrip. Arguments are to continue today.

Voisey's Bay Nickel Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of Inco, has said it will cost $65,000 a day if the work is stalled pending an appeal.

http://www.canoe.ca/News/aug25_voisey.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 19:01
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Bob ( 13:11 ) : Excellent thoughts. .... Your reality check has been duly noted and recorded. Perhaps it's time for goldbugs to reevaluate gold stock holdings in terms of friends and enemies. Barrick has been slowly winnowed from my holdings and as things progress I'll give additional thought to flushing Munk and Co. completely in favor of the NEMs and or HM. There really is no purpose served to supporting ABX management's stock options and other perqs at the expense of shareholders and the general gold market.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 18:52
GVC @strong into end of month?>(@strong into end of month?):
It looks like tomorrow may be do or die time for gold/xau.. mabey a weak morning but hopefully a strong close. looking for a week end /monthly close in the 336 area.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 18:08
D.A. spiraling.into.the.depths.of>(spiraling.into.the.depths.of):
All:

With all the focus turning to the 'deflation' story, I thought I'd share an interesting number which I finally dug up. In the year 1996 unadjusted CPI, that is CPI not adjusted for 'quality' improvements rose at an annual rate of 4.7% as opposed to the 2.5% reported by the BLS with the adjustments.

The next time you hear that real yields are very high and thus bonds are a great investment, think again. It is more likely that real 'real' yields are not high at all, its just that the government isn't counting very well.

For anyone that is interested our long only system bought silver on the open this morning. The number of positions we now have in the system has increased from about a low of 6 a few weeks back to around 13 now. Our system is finding things to buy that it thinks aren't heading into the deflationary abyss. We shall see if it is right.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 18:04
6pak Voisey Bay @ Visitors, from around the world?>(Voisey Bay @ Visitors, from around the world?):
Saturday, August 23, 1997

Inuit expect more support in Voisey's Bay blockade

By DAN WESTELL
The Financial Post
More protesters are joining the 150 Innu and Inuit who say they have stopped work on a road in Labrador that Inco Ltd. is building to advance exploration at its Voisey's Bay nickel find.

He said another 15 protesters were just about to join the peaceful demonstration, and the more than 20 Mounties at the site may be reinforced.

The protesters, he said, are expecting support from First Nations and Innu groups, and likely [from] around the world.
http://www.canoe.ca/FP/aug23_inuitexpec.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:59
Ted @6Pak>(@6Pak):
6Pak: your news is getting close to home....


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:57
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Just back from a marathon trip to Scaterie Island with Sean Whelan...Luckily he was sober...then....Our yocal ISP was down for 10.5 hours and still no e-mail....so it's just as well we went on our trip today....Looks like a boring day in the markets...eh...


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:54
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Puetz: aren't you the poster who was predicting a DOW bloodbath for a week ago?


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:54
6pak Voisey Bay Mine NFLD. @ Deputy Fisheries Minister >(Voisey Bay Mine NFLD. @ Deputy Fisheries Minister ):
Monday, August 25, 1997

Deputy fisheries minister headed to Newfoundland.

Standoff continues at protest site after arrests.

OTTAWA ( CP ) - Canada's deputy fisheries minister has left his post to coordinate Newfoundland's interest in the Voisey's Bay nickel mine, the Prime Minister's Office said Monday.

http://www.canoe.ca/News/aug25_protest2.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:44
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Stock holders: Sell, sell, sell, sell. Repent now, time is running out.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:36
Yellow Jacket @ Work and leaving>(@ Work and leaving):
GEORGE COLE: I agree with your prediction of perhaps one more top in Aug/Sep. I repeat my post of Sat.- The Dow may have one more push to a higher high yet. Congress and Prez are out ( some would say the always are ) and no significant govt. index reports until the middle of next month. I think the August CPI will show signs of inflation and become the first nail on the coffin. Next, the 3Q corp. reports will come in somewhat lower than expected. From that point on I think the trend toward lower highs will start signaling the beginning of the bear market. One last small end-of-year rally ( traditional, you know ) may occur, but Dow will probably close 1997 at a small loss from 1996. I believe in the 7 factor - years ending in 7 are bad for the stock market. We'll see.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:31
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Dow/Gold Ratio 24.22


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:23
Donald @Home>(@Home):
BOB, ALL: Speaking of Deflation. Paul Kangas is doing a feature on it tonight on Nightly Business Report for those of you who have a TV. ( Byron, we will give you a summary )


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:21
Brad Gatekeepr@rockford.com>(Gatekeepr@rockford.com):
Boy.. am I glad to see this screen start up in FULL text.. I sure got tired of

waiting for the screen to rebuild twice.. Thank you Kitco


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:14
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
George S Cole: Ok lets watch. You realize that if you are right this will put you into the same status for the DOW that Hepcat and Selby are for gold--best Kitco predictors. Funny world isn't it?


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:13
Donald @Home>(@Home):
BW: We oughta make a law...whenever a stock analyst comes on TV to give us his/her garbage they have to stand near a blackboard that shows their full personal portfolio. Then notice how the reco's will improve.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:12
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Sounding a lot like Saturday here again! Alright! But, unfortunately, it may be a good couple hours before I can participate.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:12
Bob @...GFD, Donald>(@...GFD, Donald):
GFD - the scenario that you describe would make for a great movie. I hope the strategy pans out and those of us underwater in gold stks will finally reap our reward.

Donald: Your dichotomy about real money reminds me of the mid- 1970's editorial by Malcolm Forbes about the then fascination of investors with the Swiss Franc. At the time the SF was making gains against the greenback so much so that Swiss citizens were fast becoming the European answer to Kuwaities. Malcom reasoned that the SF could go to the moon but it still don't change the fact that Switzerland is the land of chocolate, watches, and banking services. In other words, it don't compare to the USA in economic scope or power.

By reference to your point about 'real money' I suggest to you that most of the worlds most important people - those who move and shake the G7 economies - real money is the US dollar. Gold has been relegated to historic relic status over the past 20 years notwithstanding its inflationary price reaction in 1980 during the greatest grip of stagflation to hit the G7.

I am a long gold stock investor. I appreciate your posts about deflation and the unfolding economic scene in the Asean sector.

What is real money for those of us in a minority - gold owners and cheer-leaders, is jewellry to the masses and only secondarily a store of value.

In the final analysis money is whatever someone will accept in exchange for food, shelter and the necessities of life. Depending on where you are in this world the US greenback ranks high as the medium of choice to exchange for other valuable commodities.

I hear ya but let us not forget that we are in a minority. Like the guy who lead the troops in the Battle of the Bulge said - ' I think we are surrounded '....eventually the Allies smashed through the German circle and saved the troops so maybe there still is hope that BT will fool us all and call the short bluff as GFD scoped-out.

Keep those informative posts a comin'

Cheers


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:11
bw Thanks for the education>(Thanks for the education):
Bart: Thanks to you and Kitco for providing this excellent site. But I know you are only hooking us good for a few years and then free no more.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:06
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MOONEY: Without bahting an eye I can tell you that the market cap of Dell Computer equals 66% of all the gold owned by the US govt/Fed. ( I figured it out myself ) . I read recently that the market cap of Coca Cola is higher than all the shares of all the companies in France combined.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:06
Glenn XXXX>(XXXX):
I heard that the London market was closed today and that is why the volume and movement in the metals was very low.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:02
The Judge Father Mooney>(Father Mooney):

PLEASE PRAY FOR US ALL.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:01
hardwareman @!!!!>(@!!!!):
Webmaster: new system is really bad. Few days before I was able to get the whole daily set of messages in about one minute - I have ISDN connection - and then read it all offline. Now I'v got a message about my last visit 4 minutes after entering the site. It took 3 min more to get first 25 messages. Bad news!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 17:00
hardwareman @!!!!>(@!!!!):
Webmaster: new system is really bad. Few days before I was able to get the whole daily set of messages in about one minute - I have ISDN connection - and then read it all offline. Now I'v got a message about my last visit 4 minutes after entering the site. It took 3 min more to get first 25 messages. Bad news!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 16:55
bw Re: Donald, money>(Re: Donald, money):
Donald: All that money flowed into stocks from the mutual funds and about an equal amount or more flowed out. I wonder who was selling?


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 16:54
Mooney @Richard.Burke>(@Richard.Burke):
Mr. Burke - Participants around here have been bhating, ( opps! sorry Donald ) , around that sort of statement for quite a while now. The capitalization of all the gold companies is less than that of Pepsi Cola. Is it really true? I can barely believe it. If it is 100% accurate, God help us all! ( I'm not known to pray lightly. )


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 16:53
aurator @ Ned Ludd>(@ Ned Ludd):
Bart,
Many thanks for kindly providing our playground. Like many others i visit occasionally and download a day or several day's postings. Then I archive them all in a wonderful little Mac program that allows me to get all the hits, say on LBMA. With new system i find myself endlessly cutting and pasting, removing the intro and outro. Then archiving.
Perhaps I'm doing it wrong?


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 16:47
Donald @Home>(@Home):
GEORGE COLE: I am inclined to agree with your 16:33 especially since 25 billion came into the market in August, 6.8 billion in the past week. All that money and thats the best it can do?


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 16:47
bw Re: Allen, dark>(Re: Allen, dark):
Allen: If you examine all the values we have assigned to the important variables in our economy and politics, what has to occur is bad. Clearly the potential is for very bad. Our money is a lie. Our economy is a lie. Our president is a liar. Our financial system is full of paper lies. How long can the lying continue and what will happen when we wake up? Clearly it could be bad.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 16:44
Auric Mommy!!>(Mommy!!):

Allen--Your scenario is indeed apocalyptic, and one that we can't ignore. From my standpoint, the more I delve into these matters, the more I come to agree with your points. The difference this time is that there will be no one around to anchor civilization and lead it out of its troubles. We are ALL in this bubble together this time. Scary stuff, eh?


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 16:34
Jack As usual>(As usual):

Just as usual; Teddy boy ( see Donald's at 06:25 ) is spinning for his master MLPF&S, or should I say the world currency mogels. Well the World Gold Council has another opinion. http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/25/z0009_42.html.
Nomercy @ ( 14:48 ) , Mahathir is right about western capitalists.
The bailouts will mean more interference in their national affairs. This, as they strive to become members of the modern society. I call it slavery.
Hell; stick to ( the mogels ) and don't pay hommage. The Aseans should buy gold and base every thing a Gold Standard.
If I were Burmese citizen; I would consider the pressure that was placed the Asean group not to accept me and it would infuriate me. It's like saying, that every Burmese citizen was dealing in drugs.
IF BUBBA WANTS TO STOP DRUGS, HE BETTER START HERE and MAYBE close down the Mena Airport.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 16:33
George Cole August>(August):
Fundy: I stand by my projection of a market peak in August. Note that I did not say the market would crash in August; that will come later. If I am wrong and we do make a new high, it probably will be seen early in September.

The failure of the market to rally today in the wake of Friday's strong recovery reinforces my conviction that the peak is in for the big boys. But new highs in the small cap indexes are a good bet.

Gold stocks held up pretty today considering very low XAU volume and $1.70 drop in December gold.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 16:27
Allen USA>(USA):
General ( sir ) - I suppose that that is up to each to consider. Its obvious that anyone can thieve and not just bad guys. Its a problem but not a big one if you think like a thief ( individual or institutional ) . They have to know something about you or your demographics ( neighborhood your house is in, etc ) . I believe that people who are truly wealthy never show up on those magazine lists, you know. They understand resentment and do not play into it with any clues.

Dark visions, yes. But maybe not an unrealistic way of preparing for difficulties. As it is common wisdom here ( in this group ) that metals are value. There is no real concern about loss. Maybe lost opportunities but not loss in capital. I'm somewhat interested in Europe's experience in the early part of this century. Who would have predicted the conditions of 1946 in, say 1912 or 1927. We have a house of cards which may prelude to truly dark visions.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 16:18
bw Re: General, where>(Re: General, where):
General: Now is an excellent time to acquire some precious metals, in my opinion. The place to put it, to be safe from thieves is the question? The bank safety deposit boxes where 1/2 the gold in this country is kept will be easy pickings for the biggest thieves of all ( FDR and successors ) . Anywhere in your house is open game for all manner of thieves. It appears the technology for the storage of the precious metals has not advanced much in the last thousand or so years. Todays metal detectors can find a box of dimes in your back yard in a few minutes or so. So think earth, but the right earth. Good luck.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 16:05
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
Allen- ditto to your comments. I have been sayin the same thing here for quite a while. The world/USA is gona be on sale for those that got whatever money is.

Tally Ho


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 15:48
Yellow Jacket Dead horse indeed!!>(Dead horse indeed!!):
JOHN DISNEY: Thanks for the post. Your comments are welcome.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 15:35
NC spirit>(spirit):
Ah Ha! The fear just won't abate.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 15:33
gENERAL TO ALLEN>(TO ALLEN):
ALLEN, WHEN DO YOU RECOMMEND SHIFTING TO 50% CASH AND
50 % METALS? i AGREE BUT DON'T WANT TO LEAVE MYSELF OPEN
TO BURGLERS UNLESS I HAVE TO AND NO EARLIER THAN I HAVE TO.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 15:27
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
George S Cole: Are you still predicting August as the month for the The major DOW turn around?


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 15:22
George Cole the future>(the future):
Allen: You make Puetz sound like an optimist. Real end of civilization stuff. My expectation of a Dow drop to the 5000 area by mid-1998 along with $500 gold is a mere pinprick compared to your dark vision.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 15:12
George S. Cole XAU>(XAU):
Richard Burke: The last the time XAU volume was as low as today occurred a few weeks ago just before a significant rally on greatly increased volume. No guarantee of a repeat, of course.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 15:09
Allen USA>(USA):
Lurker, Roebear - Thanks for your feedback on 'Babylon'.
bw - Possibly regional differnces in perception Chicago vs NewYork Silver

I don't do options ( for my own good ) . Here are my thoughts about the 'future'; Broad brush only. ( Though I very much appreciate all your research and helpful tips regarding specifics out there. )

1 ) Obviously, Equities crash in the US as they are now elsewhere.
2 ) This is brought about by whatever ( doesn't matter ) .
3 ) WHEN Japan sells its T-Bills ( at discount ) US currency dives.
4 ) Results in BOTH inflation and deflation in US.
a ) Inflation in those things imported ( oil products, cheap agricultural commodities, luxuries )
b ) Deflation in over produced domestic goods and things people here
don't want to buy ( because of uncertainty or no money ) .
5 ) Since US$ and 'commitments' is now considered the safest place there will be flight to ANYTHING real, in descending order of 'value' on a global scale. Gold, silver or real assests ( not paper ) such as food.
6 ) Major impact on financial systems and confidence in same world wide.
7 ) Government intervention in finance systems ( as we now see in SE Asia, etc ) .
8 ) Banks locked down, trading suspended, states of emergency, etc.
9 ) Blame laying all around: Beware of anger at both Jews ( finance ) AND Arabs ( oil ) , BIG money, 'globalists', One World-ers, etc.
10 ) Compound this with weather related issues.
11 ) Compound this with Year 2000 disintegration of information and financial systems. ( We can be thankful if the markets implode prior to this catastrophe. It would actually hurt us alot less if we weren't as dependent on these national and international systems. )
12 ) Comets, meteors, UFO's, ( this last part only kidding! )

Pretty morbid stuff even if only 1/2 occures.

My current thinking is 50% metal, 50% cash. This covers both in/de-flation. Also NOT held in any electronic form or physical bank ( to easily locked up or prevent access ) . Land may turn out to be a bad choice at this time. I recall that the mid-west was sold for pennies by those fleeing the region. Also taxes can be levied by government at will.

And certainly don't let anyone know that you have what you have or where it is, because you may eventually be a target.

Rule changes in USA since S&L fiasco for insurance on accounts limits TOTAL accounts liability to $100,000 per person. If your bank fails and you have a mortgage with them they will not transfer ( via paper ) your assetts in a checking or savings account to pay off your mortgage. These are considered seperate accounts. They have you coming and going on this. Need enough cash to pay off all liabilities is a must, I believe.

Lastly, Year 2000. Reviewed IRS site mentioned here late last week. They, indeed, are totally vulnerable to this problem in that they have not started to FIX their systems yet. If they started 5 years ago I would have had my doubts. They are just waking up now. This is a monumental problem for all governments PERIOD. All use these systems to maintain revenue flow to finance government operations. Regardless of one's politics ( except for extreme anarchists ) it is obvious that weak government in a chaotic world is no virtue ( see central Africa, former Yugoslavia and Russia for examples ) . As much as one might dislike government, taxes, interference and the like it is far better that the brute thuggery which would replace it.

Who knows this could all turn out alot worse than the comet Kohutec ( sp ) problem a few years ago. I'm still choking from the atmospheric polution it dumped on us. I'm not looking forward to that big meteor everyone was talking about either. UFO's? Well, they probably have an economic system based on anti-matter or something. Which will be of no use to us at all.

Sign me 'Waiting It Out'.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 14:58
nomercy Indonesia-stocks down 5%>(Indonesia-stocks down 5%):
Prominent economist Sjahrir warned over the weekend that if the credit squeeze continued much longer, many
businesses could face bankruptcy. The Soeharto Government could not sustain tight monetary policy without
turning a mini crisis into an economic crisis.
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970826/world/world3.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 14:48
nomercy Soros-Mahathir>(Soros-Mahathir):
Will the Asian Tigers strike back?
For Mahathir, this argument is not just about currency
speculators; he sees his country as waging a mighty struggle
to defeat the imperial powers of the West and to win control
of its own destiny.

He is not alone in detecting a conspiracy. The other leaders
of South-East Asia rallied around.

All nine of the countries of the Association of South-East
Asian Nations issued a communique which darkly blamed
outside forces for well-co-ordinated efforts to destabilise
ASEAN currencies for self-serving purposes.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970826/world/wasiap.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 14:21
Hugh Von Niederhausern hughvon@hotmail.com>(hughvon@hotmail.com):
Bob: An old proverb is fitting When stock markets crash bed mattresses
become hard and lumpy


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 14:16
nomercy India - gold news>(India - gold news):
MUMBAI, August 24: A report of an imminent relaxation of
Indian gold imports hit Dubai's gold trade in the week to Sunday,
with an expected increase in demand from the subcontinent failing
to materialise, reports Reuters quoting one of the major gold
exporters to India. People failed to place the orders we had
expected because of rumours that the Indian government was
going to introduce an OGL ( open general licence ) policy, said the
trader. He said an Indian newspaper report earlier in the week
that the government was about to ease its gold import policy
unnerved Indian importers. People were afraid, he said. But...it
is almost clear now because they did not allow any new imports
yet and we are expecting a rise in import demand from the end of
August onwards, he said.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 14:11
kiwi Coming Attractions?>(Coming Attractions?):
Gold Bull vs. Dollar Bull


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 14:03
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
GFD: I think you're onto something. Maybe it's Greenspan's heartbeat: as prices decline, he relaxes and stops selling gold, causing it to increase in price and thus temporarily stopping his heart. Poor man! Bart, are you sure your data is coming from COMEX and not Greenie's pacemaker?

All: Understanding and patience with Bart is very much in order, I think. Although I'm certainly no expert, administering a web conferencing forum is no easy matter. You can't just buy some software, configure it, and then go slam 'em down all afternoon at the local pub. It's very time consuming, even after you're up and running. And having your site hosted by a third party ( as I believe Kitco is ) further restricts the options available to you. For a glimpse at some of the issues involved, take a look at http://freenet.msp.mn.us/~drwool/webconf.html and http://www.forumhosts.com/fortip.htm . Finally, you should drop in on http://www.ForumOne.com/ and go look at some other forums on the web and see how they look. IMO, Kitco compares favorably to many of them. Considering just how busy Kitco is, we should all pat old Bart on the back for having been so generous for such a long time. Dishing out megabytes of data to each of us every day wasn't cheap.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 13:56
nomercy GFD>(GFD):
London is closed today


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 13:56
Richard Burke richard_burke@bc.sympatico.ca>(richard_burke@bc.sympatico.ca):
Bob: Your analysis seems to sum up very well what a lot of people here on Kitco have been saying over the past year. I would like to add a few comments and a caveat. The capitalization of all the gold companies is less than that of Pepsi Cola. You have said that in a different way. It would seem that most CBs and governments today are probably looking at the ability to produce goods and services as the fundamental value of an economy - not how much gold it has in its treasury. If that is so, then gold is only worth its price in a supply/demand sense. Fortunately, at the moment there are some governments ( China? ) and a lot of people who consider gold a store of wealth for a rainy day. This has helped keep the price above $300. Most of the CBs are trying to do things to change the thinking of the latter group. I think all of the above ties in with your scenario. My caveat is - wait until inflation rears its ugly head! Productive capacity starts to lose its meaning then. The comments of some of the better economists here would be appreciated.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 13:55
GFD Thoughts On A Short BT>(Thoughts On A Short BT):
George S. Cole, GVC, Bob: Is BT a short? Even a short short :- ) Certainly the last BT posts from around the time that Hongkong reverted back to China were definitely from some short. Was that person the same as the original BT?

In some of my earliest posts I had speculated that it would be in a BT's interest to short COMEX while going long OTC or London. In my books it goes without saying that the interests of a large accumulator are not necessarily aligned with the traders. However, I can't see the kitcoites being worth his time to spoof.

The last purported BT post from 'Another' have raised some interesting questions. Firstly, if prices keep trending downward and mines keep closing the CB's will certainly become the primary supplier of the markets. Will the CB's conciously adopt that position? In the cold light of morning I agree with Bob that the gold mining industry probably does not figure that much in the political equations of the CB's - other than contributing to deflationary action they really cannot afford.

The other question is whether BT and other *large* asian money have now ceased buying and are now sitting in the hills with their gold watching the fun - martinis in hand. This might actually mean less shorting action. The shorts need willing buyers in places like the OTC markets.

Maybe that is how his operation worked. The shorts would sell to him, driving down the price while he accumulated the physical position that he desired. Maybe the markets will change trend if he has ceased to buy from the OTC shorts...


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 13:52
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Bob, 2: Everything you said at 13:11 may be true from the standpoint of short sellers and miners but it ignores the issue of real money and currency. We are sinking deeper and deeper toward economic chaos every day. It is stupid to save paper money, everyone knows that. A capitalist system requires savers to fund the future. Modern society needs true money or it will revert to the Dark Ages. It is really that simple and only a matter of time. We must re-establish real money or perish as an organized society. It was the invention of money that permitted the division of labor. The destruction of money will reverse the process.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 13:51
Notagoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
To Curious:

I agree with APH's comments about Advanced Get.. There are a lot of
sophisticated tools in the program. And it takes much effort/study to use
them with any degree of success.

This is a quote from a individual who has been using the program sense,
I believe, 1987:


Having said all these positive things about GET, you can't expect to just shell out $3,000 and then make loads of money. Anyone can spend $30,000 to buy a concert grand piano, but not everyone can make music. It takes education, practice and talent. It's the same for GET. If one doesn't take the time to learn Elliott Wave and Fibonacci theory, one can't expect to understand how GET operates. I warn people that they need to expect to put in a lot of time and effort to get up to speed in learning to use a powerful tool like GET. You have to read a lot of books, watch a lot of videotapes of seminars, and practice with the program.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 13:48
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
For the Yellowjacket and the DeeJay

Well I never !!

1. Buffels ADR were available in USA. They are
issued by Morgan G and Citibank per the Mining Journal.
2. So the mechanism would be that since DD cannot
issue stock they make the conversion from Buffels say
at 1.1 Deeps per Share of Buffels and pay you
2.875 Times 1.1 making $3.15 in the old pocket. So then
you take the money and buy Deeps with it. What a waste
of time. This is the kind of thing a bureaucrat from
vermont would think up to get back at rich people. But
other than the cost of the spread and brokerage I cant
get too excited. Randgold gave me the impression that
the corresponding ADR would be issued without this
idiotic manipulation but who knows.
3. I think we have literally beaten this one to death.
4. Your info on shareholders meeting and merger checks
exactly with what I posted about 7 hours ago.
5. Believe you can STILL buy Buffels ADR at about
$2.25 and at worse get paid out at as much as $3.15
on September 15th ( minus - value of the dreaded option )
Is that so fearfull a deal-unless of course gold drops
like a rock but then why are we doing this anyway
6. I know - Buy Buffels and short gold - a no can lose
play --- only joking.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 13:47
xiao hu_xiao_ping@hotmail.com>(hu_xiao_ping@hotmail.com):
GFD: LONDON closed today for banking holiday..



Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 13:40
6pak Buy Back @ Inco Voisey Bay NFLD. Canada>(Buy Back @ Inco Voisey Bay NFLD. Canada):
August 25, 1997
Inco to buy back 16 million shares

TORONTO ( CP ) - Inco Ltd. plans to buy back up to 16 million of its common shares, or about 10 per cent of the nickel giant's outstanding stock.

Inco, which has just over 167 million outstanding common shares, said it's buying back shares to partially offset the earnings dilution caused by last year's purchase of the Voisey's Bay nickel deposit in Labrador.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Inco-Share-Buyback.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 13:17
2 @bob>(@bob):
Nice 13:11.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 13:15
GFD A Weird Market Gets Weirder...>(A Weird Market Gets Weirder...):
Barts 24 hour chart shows one of the strangest charts I have seen ( for the action in london ) . Sorta looks like a chart of a heart beat or something... Comex five minute chart also very flat... Add to this Richard Burke's comment about ultra low XAU volumes...


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 13:14
kiwi Volatility Analysis>(Volatility Analysis):
Here's a site that maybe of interest..

http://www.forc.com/welcome.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 13:12
APH [[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[>([[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[):
Curious - I think the Get program is the best program out there if you use Gann lines. They spent a ton of money programing the various features. But if you don't know anything about Gann and Elloitt the program can be overwhelming. A guy sitting next to me at the first meeting I went to had the program for a year and had done only one trade.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 13:11
Bob @..reality check>(@..reality check):
Although the world economy is inter-related. The major power blocks dominate and lead the world's economies. It was suggested that closing the worlds gold mines would cause serious economic ramifications in terms of unemployed workers and collateral outcomes. We are reminded that the USA is the only real power that has a gold mining industry of significance and that industry is so small in relation to the big USA political-economic picture that few would care if the gold mines were closed tomorrow. In other words, if Nevada, Arizona, and California's gold industry closed they still are home base to significant information technology, entertainment, and tourist industries that dwarfs the gold mining economic multiplier net product.

No European country has a gold mining industry of merit so it is a low-stress decision for a European CB to dump gold as it does nothing to the local Portugese or Dutch or Belgium economy.

Now we turn to the wizards of OZ who should have known better but obviously are enjoying too much OZ suds to reflect carefully on the politics of managed gold prices in todays modern derivative based financial markets. ( To appreciated the nature of the modern world financial markets I suggest they study the entrails of George Soros or simply ask the Bank of England for advice. )

Australia is a major world gold producer ( #3 ) but a minor global player on the world economic scene - somewhat below the score of Canada which also has a material gold industry ( #4 ) and is the largest subsidiary corporation in the world owned and controlled by the Americans with minority ownership by Asians and Euros with a few Canadian billionaire families to make things look good for the common folk.

( BTW, Canadians are sedated by claims of living in the world's best country. The Gypsys of Romania have been encouraged by TV and news of the Canadian Dream and they are now flooding into Toronto by the plane load for refugee status. At this point I would once again wish to thank TED and other Americans who have graciously decided to make Canada there taxable residence to help us natives pay for the honour of being winners of UN prize for being the world's greatest place to live. )

The Big Picture ? The gold industry does not have political or economic clout outside RSA and other dependent 3rd world basket cases. Further, Peter Monk ( Barrick CEO/Chair and major owner ) is not in the gold development business. Barrick is a gold paper trader that mines the metal only to support its paper obligations.

Peter Monk has been quoted to distinguish his operation from that of the gold industry by indicating that Barrick was run by businessmen rather than mining explorers and developers. The business philosophy is fundamentally different.

Barrick hopes that gold prices do hit well below $300 so that it could unwind its hedges and score immediate gains without selling or mining any gold. Other XAU companies are in the same position. They are part of the problem.

I harped on this issue last month and GSC recently posted an article that expressed a similar view that the gold mining industry hedgers were part of the problem. Current hedging makes the entire gold industry less valuable to long gold shareholders and investors. Similarily, when CBs sell a small portion of gold inventory they depress the price that results in a net loss when the transaction takes into account the lower valuation the market places on the remainder siginificant CB gold inventory - as result of gold price dropping through CB market 'air pockets'.

The HUI companies, Homestake, etc., are part of the solution - they do not hedge material production beyond 1.5 years. Homestake recently unwound a Sante Fe Gold hedge after the merger. The CEO of Homestake publicly stated that the price of gold was so low that it now pays to buy it from the market rather than mine it.

The bottom line is that long gold investors will have a long time to wait until the fundamentals of demand and supply become stable in light of politically unconcerned Euro CB gold sales and the drunken stupor of the Wizards of OZ who pretend to know what they are doing at the RBA.

The OZ decision will be noted in the history of the gold market as a significant event. The OZ RBA $2 Billion announcement created an 'air pocket' that dropped the price of gold $20 into the current trading range.

The short traders may be the reason that gold price is held hostage to the middle of this price channel but you can not blame them for operating according to their mission statement - to trade for profit by exploiting weak fundamentals and employing technical trading tactics against a divisive gold industry ( XAU vs HUI ) and compliant CB's ( RBA ) who announce gold sales available for spin doctoring.

Cheers


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 13:04
Yellow Jacket @Work>(@Work):
DJ, JOHN DISNEY: FYI, the news on the DD / Blyvoor / Buffels merger date.
Western mines' merger date set for 15 September
The operative date of the proposed merger of
Buffelsfontein and Blyvooruitzicht with Durban
Roodepoort Deep is scheduled for Monday 15
September, the directors said today. The
scheme meetings and general meetings will be
held on Thursday 28 August. The merger will
be implemented by schemes of arrangement
which will result in Buffels and Blyvoor
becoming wholly owned subsidiaries of Durban
Deep, subject to the usual approvals, and
being delisted on Friday 12 September.



Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 12:57
bw Talk:>(Talk:):
There is much talk these days about the new stock market investor and how he will not panic when we see our inevitable bear market. How the trading stops ect. will prevent panic. The same talk was heard in the late 1970s and early 1980s. It was said we would never again see a single day decline as severe as the 12.83% decline of Oct 28 1929. Of course we did see a worse day by almost a factor of two. And today still the same talk. Ah humans, you have got to love em. The body and reflexes of the beast controlled, most times, by an astute brain.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 12:54
Yellow Jacket South African Market Update - 8/25/97>(South African Market Update - 8/25/97):
Market appears trapped in no man's land By DAVID SHAPIRO
Market:
With London closed for a bank holiday volumes
struggled to breach R500m. In these quiet
conditions, though, the market managed to make
up some of Friday's losses but, on balance,
investors remain cautious.

The turnaround in the Dow on Thursday and
Friday was a gentle reminder that the correction
on Wall Street is not over and there is still some
ground to cover before sentiment can turn bullish.
Our market appears trapped in no man's land.

Without much corporate activity or economic
news of consequence, there is little incentive for
traders to become involved. Tomorrow,
Governor Stals releases his annual address on the
state of the economy. He is not expected to
reduce rates, but a more upbeat view of the
economy and some fresh direction on monetary
policy could restore confidence.

The bond market lacked the participation of
foreign dealers. After opening down 3 points at
14.20%, the long R150 traded for most of the
day between 14.165% and 14.225%. A slightly
warmer opening on Wall Street helped the market
and, by our close, the R150's had settled at
14.19%, down 4 points on the day.

Golds and Mining:

After Friday's pounding, mining shares staged a
minor rally, but, with traders still licking their
wounds, the market soon ran out of aggression.
Anglos rose 550 to 24625, short of Friday's
25000 and well down on its recent high around
27800. De Beers added 175 to 14875,
Anglovaal Ords rose 100 to 9800 to bounce off
their low, Minorco made up 25 to 9825 while
Johnnies lost 50 to 3050.

The gold price failed to capitalise on the
weekend's move and fell back to $324.50. The
combination of a steadier rand and softer gold
price left gold shares mixed. A rise in West Areas
from 225 to 4025 together with modest gains in
Elands, Kloof and Joel were responsible for the
small uptick in the gold index. Southvaal ended
down 275 at 10000, Vaal 100 at 23800 and
West Deeps 50 at 11400.

Platinum shares were stronger with Impalas and
Rusties up 25 each to 5175 and 8025
respectively. Other mining counters were steady
without any particular features.



Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 12:52
EB Good Morning/afternoon/evening/whatever...>(Good Morning/afternoon/evening/whatever...):
Bart - Thank-you VERY much for this site. It can't be said enough. I appreciate that you respond to feedback from all the 'crybabies' ( myself on the top of the heap ) ;- ) Whatever you end up doing we will get accustomed to it and life will be right again...sigh ( of relief ) .

Red Shoes - Bill Clinton Does own a home in Summerland, CA. It is near Santa Barbara. He has for a few years now...update your old records accordingly ;- )

Ted - even though you are well into the lunch stages of the day it is slightly overcast this a.m. in 'central-coast' Cal. Sunshine to break through momentarily, Temp. is probably a cool 63f now with highs reaching 80something today...most excellent golf weather, unless the wind starts to howl! Bowl of shredded wheat with some Sweet, Huge, Local strawberries, coffee ( colombian ) , and a BIG ( I'm talkin' HUUUGE ) glass of frozen concentrate OJ. Yum, Yum!

Mooney - My favorite ( favourite? ) ( other than the Common Sense one ) chart analysis is 'Mooney's Mickey Mouse Eyeballing'. I'm sure it 'stacks-up' to many around these parts. My own dartboard method is Still saying Long stk mrkt. short Gold...we shall see. I am on the Gold sidelines now...there are MANY others markets that are much more lip-smackin' Tasty right now. No matter what direction I throw the darts at platinum charts it comes up LONG...weeks to come should heat up...? btw I never use the 'ask your broker for advice' method. My broker-dude knows better ( he doesn't give advice on direction anyway ) . He is, however, a 'registered options principal' ( whatever the hell that is ) . I just know he's Sh*t Hot with strategies. It's all about limiting risk and maximizing gains anyway, right? If you like longevity that is...
Anyway, thanks for your posts and can you send me the 'Mooney Unabridged' Dictionary? Cost is no object! ;- )

Puetz - Thank you for your postings also, it is good to see people with great conviction. You are brave for going on the limb...if you are right, god ( supreme creators ) help us. I'm gearing up for Sept. 16th. That was the date that a few Palm Readers told my girlfriend she will be making the 'Big Clams'. I should have known it was something like a lunar eclipse...tick-tock, tick-tock. Keep on it Brother!
Also, I am a BIG Laker fan and that Laker/Celtic rivalry was the best for many years. I spent many of sweaty-palm days and nights in front of the 'boob-tube'...Larry/'Chief' and Magic/Kareem...oh my!

Away...to cosh my dingle...

EB


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 12:49
Richard Burke @by the sea shore>(@by the sea shore):
I am absolutely astounded - look at ABX volume - was only 41,000, 20 minutes ago. To get a good Xau rally going we need a volume over 2 million for the day. Think we are going to get it


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 12:40
Curious Wave Software>(Wave Software):
APH and Notagoldbug
You both have Advanced Get. Do you prefer that over any of Get's
competitors ( e.g. Prechter's own software ) ? Would appreciate your thoughts.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 12:37
6pak Stand off @ Voisey Bay NFLD. Canada>(Stand off @ Voisey Bay NFLD. Canada):
Monday, August 25, 1997

Standoff continues at protest site after arrests

NAIN, Nfld. ( CP ) - A standoff continued today at a mining site south of here after RCMP arrested three Innu in a blockade against Voisey's Bay Nickel Co.
http://www.canoe.ca/News/aug25_protest.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 12:34
bw Worldwide volatility:>(Worldwide volatility:):
Europe is displaying the same volatility we are seeing here as the Germans prepare to raise intrest rates despite the highest unemployment rates since the war. Think about that. The Germans fear inflation more than unemployment. Shows you what hyperinflation can do even after a few generations. Meanwhile Japans intrest rates are approaching zero and negative. The pac rim is in the state of lasting quakes. South Americia is rethinking its currency links to the dollar. When the big stock markets go they go worldwide. We are all in the same boat. Rest easy though, as I am sure we will be told, and told again, that we have nothing to fear but fear itself ( still check if your bank is open, perhaps a little fear is justified ) .


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 12:31
Yellow Jacket Back from Atlantic City...I won!!>(Back from Atlantic City...I won!!):
DJ, JOHN DISNEY: I interpret from DJ's letter that only Blyvoor ( Buffels is not traded in the US markets? ) shareholders are affected. Because DD cannot distribute shares in the US, the share swap cannot legally take place. What will happen is that Blyvoor will be converted to DD, but since shares cannot be issued, the shareholders will be liquidated and paid out. Our existing ( or future if bought as DD ) shares of Durban Deep are not affected. Right? Wrong?


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 11:27
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
for DJ
I dont really think what I said was new information.
It was the same old tired information Ive been saying
all along. The bank letter thing is new information.
What I did when I finally understood the source of the
new story was to call Ian Murray who is handling the
merger for Randgold - I also emailed him your post.
He called Randgold counsel in the US. He called me back
and told me counsel had said that this was not an issue.
However when it comes to US law and regulations
nothing would surprise me. Im very curious about the
letter and the possible forced sale of the stock. Who
would BUY the stock in such circumstances? After he
buys it what does he do with it Does the SEC simply
pay the shareholder out and tear up the certificates
Sounds unlikely to me.
Please advise the mechanism that the SEC and the bank
of NY have in mind for handling the sale of DDeep equivalent
to ALL the ADR on all outstanding Blyvoor and Buffels.
I'd really like to know.
I'd also really like to have a copy of that letter
and frame it as an example of the unbelievable pomposity
arrogance and stupidity of US banks ( and perhaps the
SEC too ) . This kind of thing really cheeses me off.
Anyway I bought more Buffles today. Its moved up from
9.6 on the opener to 10.35 with DD unchanged at 12.5.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 10:42
Bart Kitner (Kitco) bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com):
We've set up a new optional environment for our discussion room featuring hands free, minute by minute price updates for all the metals. The URL is available to everyone willing to take the time to provide us with performance feedback. You'll need to learn how it's intended to perform, count errors and immediately report quirks ( if any ) . Filling out a 5-minute weekly feedback form until the kinks ( if any ) are worked out is also part of the plan. Once it's running reliably, expect ongoing price updates to become a permanent fixture here.

If you're interested in participating in this trial send an email to beta@kitco.com. You'll receive an automatic response with more details and the URL location.

BTW - As a result of your collective efforts we have gone back to drawing board on the new format…


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 10:24
bw Losses:>(Losses:):
Oracles excellent series on Japan continues with part VI. Seems the Japanese have been hiding quite a few losses. But we in the usa need not feel slighted, hiding losses is what our financial system is all about!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 10:23
2 @6pak>(@6pak):
Re your 8/24 18:45 post: I was outraged that the Federal Government is protecting physicians from the market forces by rewarding teaching hospitals for not training new doctors. Is there something I do not know about that mitigates the absurdity of this action? Isn't $200,000 a year enough? I am grateful that managed care, etc. are bringing down prices a little. I know that the alliance approach to medical care ( forcing providers to accept standard reduced rates as a condition for inclusion in a program ) has saved me hundreds of dollars a year. And medical schools are accepting a fraction of applicants! So young people must still consider it attractive, even though they might only earn $150000 a year. Yes, I know, there are many dedicated, highly motivated physicians who spend long hours serving their patients, who are hampered by excessive litigiousness, government paperwork, reduced fees, etc., etc., and I am thankful that we have perhaps the best medical care of any country ( speaking USA here ) in the history of mankind.

But why should they be protected from the market? In a related note, I think I read recently that the amount of money sent back into India by Indians living abroad is approximately equal to the GNP of India. The issue of foreign-trained physicians may be a complicating factor - it is not one concerning which I am fully versed.

But in summary, it is nice to see someone else comment on what was for me an infuriating article. Even though it was one which like this one has an RTG ( relevance-to-gold ) rating of near 0.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 10:12
MoreGold @IS DEFENDING A PRICE = PRICE FIXING? apparently not, anything goes in this market.>(@IS DEFENDING A PRICE = PRICE FIXING? apparently not, anything goes in this market.):
but the OTC gold option expiry Wednesday may see some volatility and with the $325 strike price defended,

FULL STORY:

Monday August 25 9:23 AM EDT

NY precious metals mostly lower early

NEW YORK, Aug 25 ( Reuter ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures were mostly lower early Monday on light volumes, with gold and silver giving back some of Friday's gains.

``With London out for a bank holiday today, you're not getting the buying we saw last week, especially in silver, but the OTC gold option expiry Wednesday may see some volatility and with the $325 strike price defended,'' North American Equity Services COMEX floor trader, John Geraghty, said.

COMEX December gold was down $1.80 at $327.90 an ounce after the first half hour of trade, slipping back from Friday's highs at $331.80, but the contract is still seen trapped in its $320-335.00 range of the past six weeks.

In the bullion market, spot gold was quoted $324.50/00, compared to the New York close Friday around $326.20/70 and the London Friday afternoon fix $324.00. With London closed for a bank holiday there was no morning fix Monday.

Physical demand is expected to improve in the Far East next month with the approach of the traditional Indian harvest and wedding festivals.

COMEX September silver was down 2.7 cents at $4.655 an ounce, slipping from Friday's high at $4.70 which was the contract's highest level since June 30.

The September silver contract has recovered from a contract low at $4.145 on July 17, and heads into its delivery period on August 29.

Meanwhile, NYMEX October platinum was up $1.60 an ounce at $411.00, but off last week's highs at $417.00, as the contract continued to consolidate after testing the $400 level a week Wednesday.

NYMEX September palladium was up 50 cents at $202.00, consolidating around $200.00 level.

TOCOM platinum group metals slipped overnight, but no further reports of Russian spot market sales have been reported and traders expect the market to tighten again as the end of the month approaches.

Lease rates for platinum group metals ( PGMs ) were little changed Monday, around 15 pct for one month platinum and 50 pct for one month palladium.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 10:08
Mooney @Reprise>(@Reprise):
BTW - Donald - I do understand your meaning and had thought of the same point before I made my original post. It's just that I believe that sometimes certain resistance points are hit temporarily in people's decision making process' due to apparent huge increases in their own ( artifical yet factual ) currency conversion rates. Net effect: Balk. Please excuse this quick reply if its not worded correctly. ( Yet I'm sure you get my drift ) . My English is going into a transitional phrase once again and perhaps we should have a barlafumble before I have yet another mentimutation. :- ) Hasta la vista!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 10:05
vronsky Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - VI (August 25, 1997)>(Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - VI (August 25, 1997)):
Financial Tsunami Looming in Land of the Setting Sun. Oracle provides ample evidence Japan’s Financial Scandals & Crisis will drive US stocks and dollar down, rates & GOLD UP:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle825.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 10:03
vronsky COLE’S MARKET INSIGHTS by George S. Cole, CFA & Economist>(COLE’S MARKET INSIGHTS by George S. Cole, CFA & Economist):
“Interestingly, the other precious metals -- silver, platinum, and palladium -- have all breached their 100 day moving averages. And these whites frequently lead the yellow:”
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/cole825.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 10:02
DJ DD saga>(DD saga):
John Disney - Your latest post indicates there is not a problem with distribution of DD stock, only options. If this is true, this is new information. The letter sent to me specifically refers to ordinary shares of Durban and the problem is that unless these shares are determined by the banks special U.S. counsel to be exempt from the need for regisration, the Depositary will not be permitted, under U.S. federal securities laws, to distribute Durban Shares. Lacking this exemption the Byvoor Shares will be exchanged for Durban Shares, the Durban shares will be sold and the net proceeds of the sale will be distributed to holders of Blyvoor ADR's. I assume the same is true for Buffles, but haven't seen a similar letter. However, I only started buying Buffles recently.



Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 10:01
Granny I just love this site>(I just love this site):
I just want to tell Mr. Kitner what a wonderful site this is and how much all of the ladies in the Windward Falls investment club love it. Of course we don't have the kind of knowledge that the other contributors have and certainly don't want to waste everyone's time by posting a lot. Actually, Mr. Kitner, we liked the old format better where you could see all the posts, since we don't get on that often and all, but we're just so grateful to have the site that we all agree with Thelma Akers who said As long as I can read what that nice Mr. Cole has to say I really don't care how they change it.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 09:53
Mooney @Donald>(@Donald):
Donald - Are you asking me to be the reelpot passing the slibber-sauce to save those poor souls who can't even save their own Bell-Penny? Or are you asking me to perform Dweomercraeft for those with bats in their belfrey? Again. Have a nice week! I'm off to see the wizard! ;- )


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 09:18
Donald @Home>(@Home):
DR. MOONEY: Do you have the patent on the famous Dr. Mooney's Self Healing Currency Ointment? Are you that Dr. Mooney? Please tell me where I can get some in my area. I have Baht disease. If I rub it on real quick Dr. Mooney, will I be able to buy even more gold the longer I wait?


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 09:07
teacher re: APH charts>(re: APH charts):
Interested: To read charts, click your mouse on the icon ( little picture ) in APH's message.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 08:56
poster @>(@):




[ Yahoo | Write Us | Search | Headlines | Info ]

[ Business - Company - Industry - Finance - PR Newswire - Business Wire - Quotes ]


Monday August 25 6:44 AM EDT

Dubai gold imports hit record high in July - WGC

By Sami Aboudi

DUBAI, Aug 25 ( Reuter ) - Dubai imported a record 62.955 tonnes of gold in July, cementing its role as the largest bullion
redistribution centre, the World Gold Council ( WGC ) said on Monday.

WGC Middle East and India chief executive Rolf Schneebeli, quoting Dubai Customs statistics, said the Gulf Arab emirate imported
62.955 tonnes of gold in July, more than double the 29.891 tonnes for the same month last year.

``I am happy to say that this close to 63 tonnes is an all-time high for Dubai,'' Schneebeli told a news conference.

``It is cementing Dubai's leading role as the largest gold redistribution centre, far ahead of Singapore,'' he said, adding that Dubai's
imports were now 26 percent more than Singapore's.

The WGC, owned by major gold producers, aims to promote gold usage. It monitors about 75 percent of world gold markets.

Schneebeli said Dubai's gold imports so far this year have surged past imports for the whole of 1996. Imports during the first seven
months of 1997 reached 370.71 tonnes, above the nearly 350 tonnes imported in 1996.

The import rise was prompted by increased demand in the Indian subcontinent -- the world's number one gold consumer --


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 08:55
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Using one of the 'Common Sense Analytical Methods', ( in the process of being patented ) , this one being the famous '2+2=4' program, Professor Mooney has come to the conclusion that as the Asian currencies are in freefall, ( and thus gold has just shot up SUBSTANTIALLY in cost in those currencies ) , that, temporarily at least, there will be a lessened demand for bullion from far eastern buyers. ( Perhaps this week, or only for a day or two? )
Could this be the reason for the weak overnight and N.Y. opening?


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 08:41
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Morning ALL! Monday mornings for some reason seems to be my favourite. This Monday morning we have had a few interesting news articles posted from around the world which all pointed to one thing for stock market investors - CAUTION. ( Selby is furiously taking notes as TED repeats 'I don't give a Good -od -amn. I'm in for the long haul. Buy and Hold - Forever! Worked before, should work again!' ;- ) )
EB - I knew that YOU grasped the concept, it's just that I had to explain and apologize to oldman for my word error. BTW - Which of my technical analysis methods are you refering to? Could it be 'Mooney's patented mickey mouse chart eyeballing technique'? Or that, oh so rare, method that I often use ( such as in the S+P shorting debate ) : Common Sense? :- )
Since you brought up one of the older, ( and often better method than relying on your broker's advise ) , techniques - the proven dart at the chart method - can you tell us if NOW is a particularily good moment in time to use this method? ;- )
Ted - Before you take my ribbing to extreme levels of prejudice let me tell you here and now that I still think of you as a good buddy despite all your failings, ( such as not putting the money on the 23 and using the proceeds to send me an airline ticket - for example ) , and that when you were on vacation I had composed a little ditty that included mention of you and your cosh in the dingle ( I bet you're happy I didn't say that the other way around! ) AAR - As I neglected to post it before - Here is my Monday Morning contribution to the continuing madness at Kitco as we await the Big Break-out!

Thoughts on Chinkers, Garboil, Scrogglings and Cosh

If you show me your bulse, I will condog to show you my chinkers.

When Ted returns to his Cosh in the dingle at the dimpse, we must ask of him whether his darg is enough to purchase a crab-skuit that he might pursue the whelk.

I fear this drumly ditty is causing some to quetch and quop, I've raised enough garboil and now, surely you've all 'enow of my five eggs; enough even to make heanly, hoodpicks and even mobards glop.

Besides, I must off to my steven in a thrip.
Before my partner becomes roaky, has a mentimutation, and,
My fortune becomes as scrogglings.

Mooney - 1997.

Have a great week everyone!



Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 08:30
Red Shoes Wizzing in Oz>(Wizzing in Oz):
What does a poor boy do? Got $2000 Aussie bucks burning a hole in my pocket. The storm clouds are approaching - at some stage the intrinsic worth of gold will be, in some way be recognised whayever happens. It may just be $35 / oz but at least it will have some WORTH unlike the groovy new polymer holographic fantasies we have in circulation here.
If I don't want to be a victim of the New Age feudalism, what do I do with it
Is Alan Greenspan buying Gold?
Is George Soros buying Gold?
Warren Buffet, Bill Clinton ( He doen's even own a home! )


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 08:15
Donald @Home>(@Home):
A major currency crisis is roiling through Asia that will have a significant DEFLATIONARY impact
http://www.businessweek.com:80/1997/35/b3542191.htm


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 08:13
vronsky COLE’S MARKET INSIGHTS by George S. Cole, CFA & Economist>(COLE’S MARKET INSIGHTS by George S. Cole, CFA & Economist):
“Interestingly, the other precious metals -- silver, platinum, and palladium -- have all breached their 100 day moving averages. And these whites frequently lead the yellow:”
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/cole825.html



Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 08:02
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Good Morning Ted: Asian Tigers had a tummy ache last night? Mostly cloudy with an occasional splat of a sunbeam, 63F


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 08:01
bw Utilities:>(Utilities:):
In my opinion if we are to make sustainable new highs in stocks the dow utilities average must punch thru about 237 on the upside. Currently it is at 231.35 and deciding, up or down.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 07:57
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Reading between the lines; China is producing far more goods than it can sell. Will there be a deflationary markdown sale?
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/25/z0009_38.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 07:50
bw Silver:>(Silver:):
For reasons I do not understand ( someone know? ) chicago silver is selling at about a ten cent discount to ny silver. As more doctors and dentists et al decide a silver door stop is in order this discount should disappear, ( provided the demand is for only one ) in fact I would guess chicago should sell at quite a premium to ny. This will be a sign you may not have much time to acquire a door stop yourself. Just paint em black.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 07:48
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Bank crises have affected 133 countries since 1980

BRASÍLIA, 08/25/97 - A study by the International Monetary Fund, IMF, indicates that
recessions and forced stabilization programs weaken the image of a financial system. Brazil,
however, is in good economic health, according to Alkimar Moura, a Central Bank official. Since
Brazil has completed the phase of strengthening its banking system, it is better prepared to soften
the effects of a crisis similar to the Asian currency crisis. Moura added, however, that further
measures need to be taken. Having a solid financial system is as important as having a good
macroeconomic policy, Moura said. The only way to face problems that go beyond one region is
to have a solid financial system. Financial crises today are generalized because the world economy
is going through a process of globalization, he said. ( Gazeta Mercantil ) ( SB )


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 07:37
Stalder Looking Better>(Looking Better):
Globex S&P500 was +285 now +145, NSDQ100 was +825 now unch.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 07:20
nomercy Ted Arnorld>(Ted Arnorld):
I wonder why gold dealers had to 'shut down' in one of those Asian Tiger countries as people were lining up to sell their currencies and BUY GOLD!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 07:20
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Good morning Ted! It's foggy here in Indiana too. But the perspective is much clearer in the financial markets. Buy gold and silver, sell stocks and bonds -- IMMEDIATELY.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 06:58
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Good mornin ALL! Big losers in Asia were Indonesia ( down 5.53% ) and Thailand ( down 5.36% ) ...Nikkei up 6 ( .03% ) and Hang Seng up 169.13 ( 1.10% ) ..
Dec. Gold still down 1.70 and silver down 5.7 cents....European markets flat-mixed....Fog prevails here......so far!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 06:56
vronsky Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - VI (August 25, 1997)>(Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - VI (August 25, 1997)):
Financial Tsunami Looming in Land of the Setting Sun. Oracle provides ample evidence Japan’s Financial Scandals & Crisis will drive US stocks and dollar down, rates & GOLD UP:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle825.html



Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 06:41
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Discussion of how Asian currency crisis has affected commodity prices.
http://www.afr.com.au:80/content/970825/invest/ivcommod.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 06:36
Interested APH Charts>(APH Charts):
APH
Interested in seeing the two charts you posted yesterday. Not sure how to use the compressed format. Can you post them in chart form. Thanks


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 06:35
Donald @Home>(@Home):
For the
gold market, the bad news lies with the tiger nations,
said Mr Ted Arnold, metals analyst with Merrill Lynch in
London. These tiger economies have recently gone lame
in a big way. The sharp rise in the gold price in their local
currencies is likely to bring out some distressed selling
and consignment stock sales in the region. It will also hit
domestic demand quite hard, he said.

The countries with currency problems consumed 287
tonnes of gold last year -- about the same as Australia's
gold production. Indonesia consumed 132 tonnes in
1996, Malaysia 80 tonnes and Thailand 76 tonnes.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 06:31
Auric El Nino>(El Nino):

The pink line is the current El Nino. The purple line represents the '82-'83 El Nino-- http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/~cas/ENSO/ENSOcomp.new.GIF


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 06:22
Auric El Nino>(El Nino):

George S. Cole--I have been reading the predictions by NOAA and others for this El Nino. The striking thing is that the strength of this event keeps being revised upward with each passing month. As I posted earlier, the strength of the 1997 El Nino is the greatest of any in the last century, at 5 months of age. I will repost a link to a chart which illustrtes the point.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 06:09
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Korea Story. Sorry.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/24/z0009_6.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 06:07
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Korean company to lay of 16,000 workers, 84 executives resign


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 05:57
George Cole BT>(BT):
GVC: Agree about BT. He has zero credibilty with me. Although he claims to represent a group that has accumulated a huge long position, I suspect he is heavily short and is using this forum to try to drive the price down further. I give his postings the same crediblity as the one about the big Japanese earthquake that was supposed to happen August 17.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 05:50
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
To Savage, dj, and the yellowjacket

Understand from Randgold that merger goes to
shareholders meeting this thursday August 28 and will
be effective as of September 15.
Really hope the Bank of NY letter is a smokeball.
Buffels now trading 10.15. Blyvoor at 2.48 up from
2.20 ish friday close so action is confirmed.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 05:45
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Pakistan gold and silver prices stable Monday.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/25/z0009_30.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 05:44
Stalder To Early>(To Early):
Things are looking not to good so far. But of course it way to early and it can turn around hopefully any minute.
Globex- S&P500 +285, NSDQ100 +825.
Forex- Yen +8, Mark +54


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 05:38
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Bank Julius Baer, Switzerland, urges conservative investors to reduce stocks to 25% of portfolio.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/23/z0009_3.html


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 05:29
George Cole coming storms>(coming storms):
Hoover Institution porfolio manager says gold is attractively priced



Houston Chronicle Interactive

Section: Editorial



Marotta is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution at
Stanford University and portfolio manager with Marotta Asset
Management.

Be prepared for market storms that surely
will come

By GEORGE MAROTTA
The six-year bull stock market, matching our steadily improving economy,
has added much wealth to stockholders. Common stocks, however, are
extremely overvalued, and the roughly 3 percent drop so far this month could
be just the beginning of the long-overdue corrective bear market. The
conclusion that stocks still are overvalued is based on the facts that prices of
stocks are too high in relation to companies' earnings and dividend yields are
too low.

Our country has come a long way since July 15, 1979, when President Carter
gave his famous crisis of confidence speech. Poor Carter suffered from one
of the highest misery indexes: rate of inflation plus the rate of
unemployment. The Arab oil embargo had driven inflation to a hyper level,
causing the Federal Reserve Board to raise interest rates to unprecedented
levels, which caused widespread unemployment. Around that time, on Aug.
11, 1979, the Dow Jones industrial average was 750. That would have been
the best time to buy stocks because they were so cheap by common measures.
The price-earnings ratio of stocks was nine and the dividend yield was 6
percent, compared with 21 and 1.7 percent, respectively, now.

The tenfold increase in the stock market over the past two decades has, in
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's lexicon, created a state of
irrational exuberance. I agree with him and believe that the conditions are
ripe for a huge stock market correction. There are many factors supporting
this conclusion:

· We have not had a correction greater than 10 percent since 1990 ( because of
the Persian Gulf War ) , which in itself is a record. Twice before, the market
has had a similar string of advances. One of those times ended in the crash of
1929, which gave us the New Deal and the beginnings of our welfare state.
The second was the short-lived correction of 1987: The market dropped 36
percent in less than two months, but regained higher levels within one year.
Most of today's investors do not remember the grinding two-year correction
of 1973-74. The stock market gave up 45 percent of its value, and it took a
painful eight years to recoup that loss.

· Many analysts believe that things are different now because of low inflation
and the fact that foreign competition in a free trade environment will keep
wages under control. I disagree. The General Motors and United Parcel
Service strikes show that labor wants a bigger piece of the economic pie
created in our booming times. In 1987, many analysts pointed out that the
then 22 price-earnings ratio for U.S. stocks was not really that high when
compared with the 66 price-earnings ratio of Japanese stocks. The Nikkei
average then proceeded to go down from about 40,000 to 15,000.

· The wealth effect of the rising value of stocks, added to the record high in
consumer confidence levels, puts pressures on the price of goods and
services.

· What additional good news is there to propel the market forward? The
agreement to reach a balanced budget by the year 2002 is in place and the
deficit is now approaching $36 billion. Everyone knows that the balance
would have occurred earlier without the agreement and that the deficit will go
up over the next few years. Does anyone remember that the deficit at the end
of the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings plan was higher than at the beginning? Can
today's inflation and unemployment rates go lower? How much better can the
good news get?

· The U.S. stock market has had little competition from other forms of
investment, but it will not always be that way. Bonds, foreign stocks and
U.S. real estate currently are less expensive than U.S. stocks. Precious
metals, after their 10-year slide, are attractively priced.

· The booming world economy will put pressure on the price of commodities,
especially petroleum, which with higher labor costs eventually will fuel a bout
of inflation. Quote from Carter's speech: Beginning this moment, this nation
will never use more foreign oil than we did in 1977. Never. Oh yeah? Some
unpredictable foreign event ( conflict in the Middle East ) will again
demonstrate our huge dependence on foreign oil.

· Baby boomers investing in tax-deferred plans for their retirement are fueling
this stock market boom. They are heavily invested in stocks because they
have learned that stocks are the best investment vehicle. Although stocks are
volatile, the boomers claim that they have the stomach to hold onto their
investments through market declines. I don't believe them. They experienced
the short-lived '87 crash but not many of them remember the long-lived one
of 1973-74, when they were twentysomethings.

Can't we find some middle ground between a crisis of confidence and
irrational exuberance? As students of the stock market, we cannot predict
what it will do tomorrow. But each of us should study the past and be
prepared through diversification to weather the storms that surely will come.





Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 05:28
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Korean Won Falls to Record Low as Investors Flee Stocks

The South Korean won fell to a record low against the dollar as investors continued to flee
won-denominated assets such as stocks. The won dropped to 903.2 to the dollar, the lowest since
the current foreign exchange system was introduced in 1990. The won-dollar exchange rate can
move 2.25 percent above and below the day's central rate, which is the average of the previous
day's inter-bank exchange rates. The won has tumbled about 7 percent against the dollar so far this
year, after falling 8 percent last year, as the country's large current account deficit limited dollar
supply.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 05:20
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
To Dj, Savage, and the yellowjacket

Spoke to Randgold on horror story on rumoured
dump of all DD shares resulting from conversion of
Blyvoor and Buffels ADR as stated in mystery letter
from Bank of New York. Randgold contacted attorneys
in US. They then said that this is not an issue.
At issue is OPTIONS on DDeep ( which presumably will
be auctioned by the Bank issuing the ADR. )
Move up in DD of 25% has not yet been mirrored
in Blyvoor and Buffels. For example - DD at 12/13
this morning Joberg with Buffels at 9.6. As you know,
the prices should be approx equal. Bought buffels to
10 rand and still buying. Already have too much and
hope I dont get stung but cannot resist the 25%
arbitrage - BORN TO TRADE
Can you really imagine all that stock being sold
Who would buy so much and the stock doesnt dissapear
anyway - its still there. Only different people own it.
Is the SEC/Bank of NY as stupid as they seem - or is
it me




Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 05:10
George Cole markets>(markets):
European stock markets mostly up; Asia mostly down. December gold down $1.70. Joberg gold index up 0.7%.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 04:54
Jack THIS IS THE BEST GOLD SITE ON TNE INTERNET>(THIS IS THE BEST GOLD SITE ON TNE INTERNET):

Thanx Bart.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 04:44
George Cole El Nino>(El Nino):
DRUDGE REPORT FLASH
Sun Aug 24 23:13:55 1997

## Investors Seek Shelter From Evil El Nino ##


Investors used to currency turmoil and political upheaval
have a further uncertainty to factor in this year -- the
weather, REUTERS reports on Monday. The evil El Nino phenomenon
which has been building up off the South American coast since
April could play havoc with stock markets. The wire reports:
Analysts are warning investors to factor in the impact of
freak weather caused by El Nino when picking stocks from Latin
America to southern Africa to southeast Asia. El Nino causes both
floods and drought, with a knock-on impact on companies with interests
from food to construction. Anxieties about the financial impact of
El Nino '97, the 13th since 1950, has already unnerved many smart
investors...


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 03:11
Goldbug23 @Depression>(@Depression):
Savage: All this talk of depression is depressing. At age 71 I am old enough to have experienced it. It was pure hell for many of us. But also very educational! The 92 year old had the history right, but even owning land was not often a profitable thing.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 02:54
EB I'm going crazy here...>(I'm going crazy here...):
Try searching back for earlier posts and soon your head starts to swim and you get dizzy and then you pass out, only to wake up later in a pool of sweat and realize it wasn't a bad dream but, in fact, reality...I'm getting scared now and I can't leave my computer EVER for fear of missing more than 25 posts and losing my place...oh hell I give up.

I am using the oldest to newest method and I started to get the hang of it until I wanted to skip forward and then go back three days and that's when I lost it...I'm so confused and now I don't even know what day of the week it is...

Now to some serious stuff...

Mooney - I did not catch your 'mistake' but I did get the jist of what you said. I went back and read my response and I did write 'SELL CALLS'. So, I did understand exactly what you were trying to say. YES, sell calls and collect volatile, overpriced $$'s. cha-ching!$!!$$!! btw, I like your technical analysis techniques. Have you ever tried the dartboard technique? Sometimes that one works as well as any ;- )

All - this site is EB top ten favorite. Hours and days of useful stuff.
http://www.pmpublishing.com/volatility/index.html

Have a good evening/morning/whatever and happy trading.

AWAY...to 'lumberjack' a few logs...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
EB


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 02:49
Savage !>(!):
DJ: Thanks....let us know what you can. I was going to add some more BLYDY to the portfolio but will not under those conditions.


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 02:46
Savage !!!>(!!!):
**** ALL: I was talking to an extremely brilliant young lady of 92 tonite about the Depression. Fascinating. She relates that many who tried to take advantage of the situation TOO EARLY went bankrupt themselves. Few had work, but those who remained employed usually were in necessary niches, ie grocers, butchers, bakers, repairmen of all kind ( people had to make do with what they already had! ) , LOW cost clothing stores,... farmers etc. Factory workers had to be willing to accept almost anything for days of work ( one man even had all his teeth pulled out upon his bosses request....that's what she said! ) . Breweries did well, and provided employment to many. Junkyards did a good business. Most restaurants failed; except for exceptionally high end and some lowly hot dog stands ( extremes! ) . Land was KING ( unless you had a mortgage on it ) ...Land was the only security, she relates. Next Time, next time will be different because of the new technology, she told me. But learn what you can... .... from the past! BxYtF


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 01:06
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
GFD -- Actually, the conundrum is EBN gold up .50 ( two updates ) and BMI Dec futures down 1.40. Who's on first? Must be almost NO buyers out tonight!


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 01:03
DJ I've got the 25 post download blues. Yodel-ay-de-ay..>(I've got the 25 post download blues. Yodel-ay-de-ay..):
Bart - Having just returned from a week-end away, I was faced with the daunting task of getting caught up on Kitco from Friday evening to Sunday night, 25 postings at a time. Really awkward, time consuming, and breaks up the flow of the conversations.

I too often download several days and review off-line. I have unlimited access, but my local phone bill is going sky-high. Often I do this as well when traveling, when I don't have time to read everything when connected, but can read it all at my leisure on an airplane.

Before the new changes, when I hit Reload to catch the latest postings ( in full-text mode ) , it was fine as I quickly could see the latest postings, but while I was reading the latest, each time the system would continue downloading all the old stuff. I think this was the majority of your problem. Your new changes have fixed this with no loss to me or anyone. My point is that I don't think you will lose any of the benefits achieved by the latest changes if you also give people the ability to download larger timechunks on demand. If most are like me, they would only do this once or twice a day. The rest of the time, your new system is fine.

And let me also add my vote of appreciation for this fine site. I send this to you as constructive feedback, certainly not as a complaint. I would take Kitco any way I can get it.



Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 00:40
DJ Cashout>(Cashout):
Savage - John Disney is a great source for info on S. Africa, but this is not his problem, it is ours ( in the U.S. ) . That's why he hasn't heard about it, because it doesn't affect shareholders in RSA. I'm going to try the old fashioned telephone on Monday to see if I can get an update.



Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 00:07
Mooney @oldman,Strad,eb.and.ALL>(@oldman,Strad,eb.and.ALL):
Strad and eb - Thank-you for the responses to my recent posts. ( Strad: I'll catch your show anywhere within a reasonable radius of T.O )
oldman - sorry oldman, ( haven't had a chance to say that since Dad passed on two years ago! ) ,: in my 23:40 of Aug. 21, there was a distinct error, ( I will correct it below ) , which eb didn't notice as he immediately grasped the BASIS of my argument. I didn't even realise the error, oldman, until I saw your post to Strad saying that my strategy was faulty. Its not. Howeve, I did state incorrectly that one should sell a S+P 1000 PUT, when I meant to say Sell a S+P 1000 CALL. This would normally be obvious to those familiar with the numbers as at the time a 1000 S+P dec. call was about 30 points and a 1000 S+P dec. would trade at somewhere around 100 points. My apologizes for the error and the subsequent confusion . Please substitute 'sell a 1000 CALL' ( instead of 'sell a 1000 PUT' ) into the following and then see if it is not a MUCH better scenario for benefiting from an imminent stock market crash than buying an 850 put!
( BTW - The final words in brackets were added as extra emphasis to my comment that commodity futures are not to be dabbled in lightly - as per the nonchalant attitudes of slithy toves, borogoves and mome raths! )
Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 23:40
Mooney ( moonstep@idirect.com ) :
Q. What do the Canadian Dollar, Orange Juice and Gold have in
common?
A. They are all oversold and undervalued!
Some discussion here about 850 S+P puts. You must be joking!
The market would have to go down about 110 S+P points just to
start breaking even!. Any well-healed investor here who is 99%
certain we will have a crash in the next 2 1/2 months should
SHORT the Dec. S+P outright and SELL a Dec. 1000 put and
COLLECT the premium of about 30 points immediately. By the
time the S+P hits 840 ( approx. break even point on buying a Dec.
850 put ) the player would ALREADY be in pocket about 140
points or approximately $70,000.! ( Figures as of Thursday's close.
) Commodity Futures. Not to be dabbled in lightly. ( Twas brillig,
and the slithy toves - Did gyre and gimble in the wabe: All mimsy
were the borogoves, And the mome raths outgrabe. )


Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 00:04
GFD The Paradox>(The Paradox):
It has been often said that the chinese character for crisis is composed of the characters for opportunity and danger. Gold traders are and have been in a crisis for some time - the dimensions of which are only now becoming clear to me.

One could say that the chinese view a crisis as a paradox comprised of danger and opportunity. The gold market appears to be at a paradox best illustrated by Eldorado ( Sat 22:56 - good luck getting there! ;- ) ) and Big Trader ( Another: Sun 20:40 ) .

There is a risk not being in the market. Yet at the same time BT talks about bullish gold traders being destroyed by CB's becoming the the full primary suppliers of the gold market. ( As an aside, I think that BT is bang on in his assessment of the unfolding situation. As gold mines shut down this is exactly what the CB's will have to do either directly with gold sales or indirectly via gold loans. )

The danger in this crisis lies in BT's view ( assumption? inside knowledge ) that the CB's will in fact become the primary suppliers for the gold market dumping gold and potentially fulfilling Precter's call of 100 dollar gold.

Glenn is very right in pointing out that many gold mining companies are really investment bankers with a quaint history. If Barrick, for instance, can make a decent earning on it's hedging programs why should they care whether they mine another ounce Or at what price?

Nowadays, the trend is their friend.

I believe that the CB's won't do this because serious deflation is not their friend at all. While it does not matter to the shareholders of Barrick whether they shut down all their mines and make money playing paper - adding value where value only exists in the minds of men - it certainly does matter to the economy.

Laid off workers are deflationary. Debts cannot be supported ( exported ) in a deflationary economy. If western workers are all broke ( while their pension funds are booming ) how can they buy imports and create a trade deficit? Who will buy western bonds if there are no trade surpluses generating the necessary dollars to be recycled?

This is the conumdrum facing the CB's at the moment. How will they strike the balance? Greenspan is aiming for equilibrium. Collapsing gold is not part of that picture. I think BT is wrong. The CB's will get out of the gold business.

TTFN


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