KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 23:58
BILL GATES WIN95>(WIN95):
The world is mine, all mine.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 23:44
Ted @FBi-onics>(@FBi-onics):
Good one!....and on that note I say good night to ALL......EBN Gold up .30 ....


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 23:40
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Q. What do the Canadian Dollar, Orange Juice and Gold have in common?
A. They are all oversold and undervalued!
Some discussion here about 850 S+P puts. You must be joking! The market would have to go down about 110 S+P points just to start breaking even!. Any well-healed investor here who is 99% certain we will have a crash in the next 2 1/2 months should SHORT the Dec. S+P outright and SELL a Dec. 1000 put and COLLECT the premium of about 30 points immediately. By the time the S+P hits 840 ( approx. break even point on buying a Dec. 850 put ) the player would ALREADY be in pocket about 140 points or approximately $70,000.! ( Figures as of Thursday's close. ) Commodity Futures. Not to be dabbled in lightly. ( Twas brillig, and the slithy toves - Did gyre and gimble in the wabe: All mimsy were the borogoves, And the mome raths outgrabe. )


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 23:38
FBI-onics @speaking.of.the.spud.state>(@speaking.of.the.spud.state):
Why did the Miss Ebonics USA Beauty Pagent only have 49 contestants?
.....
.....
They couldn't find a woman to wear the banner IDAHO
....yuk, yuk

O.K., That was bad...how 'bout this one:
This guy goes up to a bar located at the top of the Empire State
Building in New York. It looks like a nice place and he takes a seat at
the bar next to another guy.

This is a nice place, I've never been here, the first guy says.

Oh really?, the other replies, it's also a very special bar.

Why is that?, the first guy asks..

Well, you see that painting on the far wall? That's an original Van
Gogh, and this stool I'm sitting on was on the Titanic.

Gee, that's amazing!, the first guy says.

Not only that, but you see that window over there, fourth from the
right? Well, the wind does strange things outside that window.. If you
jump out you'll fall about 50 feet before the wind catches you and
you're pushed back up.

No way, that's impossible, the first guy replies.

Not at all, take a look, the other man replies and walks over to the
window, followed closely by the first man. He opens the window, climbs
over the sill and falls out. He drops 10...20....30...40...50 feet,
comes to a stop, and whoosh! He comes right back up and sails back
through the window.

See, it's fun. You should try it, he says.

Try it, I don't even believe I saw it!, the first man shouts.

It's easy. Watch, I'll do it again. And with that, he falls out the
window again. He drops 10...20...30...40...50 feet, comes to a stop,
and whoosh! He comes right back up and sails back through the window.

Give it a try, it's a blast, he says.

Well, what the heck, I'll give it a try, the first man says and
proceeds to fall out the window. He falls
10...20...30...40...50...60...70...80...90..100 feet and splat!

He ends up as road pizza on the sidewalk.

After watching the first man fall to his death, the other guy casually
closes the window and heads back to the bar and orders another drink.

The bartender arrives with the drink and says, You know Superman,
you're a real jerk when you're drunk.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 23:19
Ted @type O>(@type O):
When=will in Capebretonese...............


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 23:17
Ted @Hale Bopp>(@Hale Bopp):
ABN Gold up .45 ....Nikkei 225 down 309.74 ( 1.62% ) .....Hang Seng down 98.95 ( 0.63% ) ....Tort: yer missive just drifted in and when respond in kind....tomorrow!...Am entertaining my house guest Sean Whelan but he appears to have lapsed into some kind of COMA....jet lag...perhaps..
...


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 23:05
Yellow Jacket South African Gold & Mining Stocks 8/21>(South African Gold & Mining Stocks 8/21):
Prices in Rand ( Rand @ 4.74 to the dollar. Touched all-time low of 4.78 during trading ) .

A stronger gold price, volatile platinum price and softer rand were
all the right ingredients to fuel mining markets. Yet the market
was slow to respond. In fact shares like Anglos ended lower, down
100 at 24950. JCI suffered a similar fate falling 85 to 3240. The
only shares which seemed to react were Amcoal which added 375 to
26600, Vaals up 375 to 23700 and West Areas up 125 to 3825.

Otherwise, the lower copper price and poor results put Palamin down
100 at 8450. Samancor followed suit losing 100 to 3870 while De
Beers recovered another 100 to 15225. Billiton held at 1840,
Minorco added 50 to 9950 and, despite a better platinum price,
platinum shares were mixed.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 23:02
fdksaj;' fjdksaj>(fjdksaj):
I think the FED is against the new FASB requirements because it will force banks and other firms to include the transactions made with the FED. Is the FED buying oex options? Check brokerage statements. Is the FED using Merrill Lynch to launder it's gold operations? Check Merrill's
financial statements.

Get the Pic.?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 22:36
nailz MARKING MY PLACE>(MARKING MY PLACE):
HI GANG.....Just lurking and marking my place for tomorrow....Gold and silver up a little for tomorrow....A good place to short.....


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 22:33
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Donald: 400 isn't extreme for the DJIA. What's extreme is the DJIA at 8000! I believe it will eventually fall to 300. I explain my rationale in Total Collapse.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 22:30
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
6pak: Puetz = Pitts. Puetz is a German name -- the ue is pronounced as an i. Some of my relatives have changed their name from Puetz to the English version -- Pitts.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 22:29
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Japan down 310 as of this post.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 22:28
GEORGE SOROS @sorosonsoros>(@sorosonsoros):
The sky will be falling soon. No details, as I not even me can predict. I can only tell you a great transfer of wealth will take place in year 2000, give or take a year. Gold will be the only refuge as it's been for thousands of years. If anyone buys into the theory today is different this will be a grave mistake.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 22:27
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Ray: To order Total Collapse, send a $29 check to: The Steve Puetz Letter, 2800 Wilshire Ave., West Lafayette, IN 47906. By the way, hold onto those December 850 S&P puts until mid-October ( in 2 months ) . Prediction: By then, the S&P should be at 450, and each option will be worth about $40,000.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 22:21
Donald @Home>(@Home):
A secret no more: SEC and accounting
board tell companies to report
derivative activity to shareholders


by Ryan J. Donmoyer
Thursday, August 14, 1997

hree years ago,
shareholders of Procter &
Gamble were blindsided when
the Cincinnati company got stung
with a $200 million bill on a pair of
derivative contracts handled by
Bankers Trust that tanked due to a
hike in interest rates.

Although it eventually settled with Bankers Trust and only
had to absorb $35 million in losses, Procter & Gamble
had to take a charge against its third quarter 1994
earnings of $102 million.

Because Procter & Gamble did not have to list its
derivatives contracts in its financial statements,
shareholders had little idea that the company was involved
in this legitimate but sometimes risky hedging strategy.

The Procter & Gamble/Bankers Trust dispute was a high
profile example of what can go wrong with derivatives, a
complex financial instrument whose value is tagged to
other products or benchmarks, including interest rates. As
more and more companies go global, many of them are
turning to derivatives to hedge against risks associated
with currency fluctuations, interest rates, and consumer
prices.

It is a legitimate risk managment strategy, the Securities
and Exchange Commission says, but like many other
financial vehicles, derivatives can be risky if poorly
managed. High-risk derivatives include inverse floaters
( which increase in value as interest rates decline ) ;
structured notes ( which hinge on whether a fund's
particular investment objectives are met ) ; and
collateralized mortgage obligations ( which are pieces of a
pool of government-backed mortgage obligations ) .

Tens of trillions of dollars in derivative contracts are now
swapped every year, SEC officials say, although no one
knows for sure because there is no accounting. SEC
officials maintain that investors have a right to know a
company's track record with derivatives to decide
whether the company fits their risk tolerance strategies.

Now the SEC ( http://www.sec.gov ) and a private sector
board that establishes accounting standards for the
financial industry want to make sure Americans are
properly informed when the companies they invest in
dabble in derivatives.

There has been kind of a black hole on the financial
statements as far as derivative activities are concerned,
says one SEC official. The Financial Accounting
Standards Board
( http://raw.rutgers.edu/raw/fasb/welcome.htm ) this week
said it would formalize standards that would make
companies include the fair market value of their derivative
activity on financial statements.

Companies currently omit from their financial statements
billions of dollars of transactions in derivative instruments
each year, notes Edmund L. Jenkins, chairman of the
FASB, which sets accounting standards for the industry.
That makes it difficult for investors to properly evaluate
those companies' financial position and risks.

FASB spokeswoman Deborah Harrington says that
forcing companies to include derivative instruments on
their financial statements may force them to measure the
amount of derivatives they were investing in. When you
have to look at it in that way, maybe you'll manage it
better.

The FASB and SEC are going ahead with its standards
over the objections of a cadre of banks and even the
Federal Reserve Board chairman himself. Alan
Greenspan last week asked the FASB to delay
implementing its standard until the industry has had a
chance to comment on the new rules. Greenspan warned
that the approach might not improve financial reporting of
derivative activities and might constrain prudent risk
management practices.

The Fed chairman was backed up by the chairmen and
CEOs of some of the country's largest banks, who
complained that the FASB does not address concerns
related to the potential impact on the capital markets, the
weakening of companies' ability to manage risk, and the
adverse control implications of implementing costly and
complex new rules at the same time as other major
initiatives, including the Year 2000 [computer] issues and
a single European currency. Due to their financial nature,
banks are more likely than some other sectors to be
involved in derivatives, SEC officials say, so their financial
statements would be most affected by the new rules.

FASB and SEC officials say the concerns of the banks
and Greenspan have been carefully considered and that
the process, underway since June 1996, has exhausted
itself.

The current accounting model for derivatives -- which
often means no accounting at all -- is unacceptable, says
Michael H. Sutton, the SEC's chief accountant. For
years [FASB] has engaged in a public dialogue, ensuring
that all points of view are heard and thoughtfully
considered. Further delays in the process are
unwarranted and put investors at risk.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 22:11
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SILVERBUM: I can't get it back either. I pasted the whole story in a post at 21:59.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 22:06
Ted @Donald>(@Donald):
Donald ( 21:32 ) I'll do my best........Dec.Gold up .20 @ 326.80


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 22:00
Ted @6Pak>(@6Pak):
6Pak: It's gettin hot+heavy....but Molson is still cold...Sean has been here several times in the past and he fits right in here....immigrated to USA from Ireland via Newfoundland....even looks like a Newfie...Fitzpatrick...eh...


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 21:59
Donald @Home>(@Home):
( Vronsky: That URL might be too long )
Dow 400? One analyst thinks so

Sure, a 95% correction is way too extreme to take
seriously, but the rationale behind it -- that we're in a
manic market -- is food for thought

A Briefing Room Special

by Michael Brush
Weekend, July 26-27, 1997

mong the handful of
stubborn contrarians in
this raging bull market,
one stands out for the sheer
boldness of his projection: Dow
400.

No, not down 400. Not even a retreat to 4,000 from the
current level of around 8,000. But Dow 400. Two zeros.
As in: A 95% drop that would set the clock back to
1955.

Sound kooky? You bet. But Robert Prechter, the market
analyst behind the doomsday scenario, makes some
provocative points on his way down to Dow 400.

Chief among them: Today's market, he says, bears the
hallmarks of a dangerous mania. If he's right, we're all in
serious trouble. Why? Because when market manias
unwind, they do so in a big way -- they usually wipe out
all the gains that were earned during the manic phase ...
and then some.

But before we get into whether we're in a market mania
now, it is worth noting that Prechter is not a maniac. His
newsletter, The Elliott Wave Theorist, ( $233 per year;
twelve monthly issues plus several special reports;
www.elliottwave.com/index.htm ) , boasts thousands of
subscribers. Prechter is also the author of a book , At
the Crest of the Tidal Wave.

Like his book, Prechter's newsletter examines the
markets by applying the principles of Elliott Wave
theory, developed by an accountant named Ralph Elliott,
who lived until 1948. Elliott Wave theory is a form of
technical analysis that says the market is characterized by
a limited number of patterns that repeat over time periods
as short as minutes and as long as decades and even
centuries.

The upshot of Prechter's gloomy analysis: The markets
have reached an apex in a century-long wave, and are
now poised for a correction that will wipe out virtually all
their gains of the past several decades. Sound far
fetched? Join the crowd.

That is not even worth a comment, says fellow bear
David Shulman, the chief equities strategist at Salomon
Brothers. Shulman's more mainstream bearish outlook
calls for an advance to 8,500 and then a decline to 6,800
in the near term.

I have always found it dangerous to be on the extreme
end of any issue, agrees Hugh Johnson, the chief
investment officer of First Albany Corporation. And it
would be putting it mildly to say that a forecast of 400 is
on the extreme.

To be fair, Prechter's newsletter, which attempts to
forecast price movements over the upcoming four weeks
or so, has been bullish more often than bearish on short
term trends during the past year or so.

But when it comes to his bleak outlook about the long
term, Prechter sticks to his guns. I am totally serious
about the retrenchment to 400, says Prechter. But I can
understand why most people wouldn't be, since it is
something that has happened only once in this century,
and once in the early 1700's [in the London stock
market] before that.

OK, so Prechter's forecast of a 95% correction is pretty
far out. But his discussion of mania in today's market
comes a bit closer to hitting home.

Your garden-variety mania, according to the dictionary
definition, is an excitement of psychotic proportions
characterized by mental and physical hyperactivity,
disorganized behavior and an elevated mood. In short, it
is a kind of madness that takes hold.

When it comes to markets, manias have the following
defining characteristics, notes Prechter.

Assets are overvalued by historic standards.
There is broad participation by the public.
There is a persistent rise in the markets with fewer,
briefer and smaller setbacks.
Manias grow out of long-term bull markets. At a
certain point, the public begins to act as if the markets can
go nowhere but up.
Manias go unrecognized when they are occurring,
which helps explain why they are possible.
During manias, investment professionals are no longer
thought to add value. Indeed, they are judged as
obstacles to investing success.
Finally, it helps if the government has assumed a stake
in the rising market, in some way.

Does any of this sound familiar? If so, again, you are not
alone.

There are several signs that we have moved form a
rational stage to speculation, agrees First Albany's
Johnson. The biggest sign, he says, is the huge valuations
being assigned to tech stocks like Microsoft, Dell, and
consumer non-cyclical stocks like Coca Cola, Procter &
Gamble, and General Electric. These stocks are trading
at multiples that I just don't believe are rational.

Other characteristics of mania exist as well. Certainly,
there is widespread public participation in the market,
notes Vernon Winters, the chief investment officer for
Mellon Private Asset Management. More and more, we
hear frustration that fund managers can't beat the index.
The bull market has been around for years, and
corrections are short and sweet, by historic standards.

And there are indeed some signs that Washington may be
getting a little too close to Wall Street. Recent objections
in Congress to the Fed raising interest rates were nothing
new. But the reasons behind them were, notes Winters.
Usually Congress is worried about the impact of higher
rates on borrowers. This time around, it had an eye on the
fears of voters about the impact of a rate hike on the
stock market. What's more, plans to invest social security
money in stocks would give the government a greater
interest in Wall Street, points out Prechter.

Does all this mean we are in a mania now? Probably not.
As students of economic history know, true manias are
rare. They have probably only occurred three times in
history: the Dutch tulip bulb mania in 1637, the South Sea
Bubble of 1719-1720 in the London stock market, and
the Roaring Twenties stock advance of 1921-1929.

Those manias ended abruptly, but not before sending off
some signals that made it clear the euphoria was coming
to a close. Two signs to watch for, says Prechter, are the
following.

The number of stocks advancing falls below the
number declining ( known as the advance-decline line ) . In
other words, stock averages continue to go up because of
the success of a limited number of issues. But the majority
of stocks are drifting lower.

Secondary or small-cap issues lag, while a select
group of blue chips roar ahead.

Before you rush out and sell all your stocks because you
see signs that these two trends exist, consider this.
Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist has been predicting the
Big Fall since 1983. ( In wave theory, patterns always
repeat themselves, but it is difficult to predict the
periodicity, responds Prechter. )

Second, if the market is in a speculative phase, it could
just as easily return to more normal valuations by declining
gradually, rather than through a crash landing, points out
Johnson.

Finally, with economic trends so positive, inflation under
control, earnings still coming in strong, and a Federal
Reserve Bank not likely to raise interest rates soon, it is
difficult to find any reason for the market to take a sharp
dive. I think the market is overvalued and it will fall, says
Johnson. But I wouldn't bank on it.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 21:56
Lan Man @Closing Bell - notice statement on Silver Stocks>(@Closing Bell - notice statement on Silver Stocks):
COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended mostly higher
Thursday, on moderate volumes, helped by some slippage in the U.S.
dollar and by renewed weakness in U.S. stock and bond prices.

It was a little disappointing given the weakness in stocks and
bonds, with silver running into some resistance from fund selling,
after looking stronger earlier, North American Equity Services
COMEX floor trader John Geraghty said.

COMEX December gold prices have been consolidating between
$320-$335, since spot gold saw a 12 year low at $315 in early
July. This stability appears to reflect shortcovering by
investment funds and rolling of positions forward rather than a
significant shift in market sentiment, Smith Barney analyst Paul
Fine said in a report.

COMEX silver stocks have fallen about 20 million ounces in the
past six weeks, with withdrawals mostly coming from one bullion
bank, and are about 38 million ounces lower than at the start of
the year.

( Reuters 04:14 PM ET 08/21/97 ) For the full text story, see
http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=4557479-978



Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 21:48
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Philippine Central Bank suspends overnight lending after peso drops 5 days in a row.
http://www.philstar.com/site/Preview/assets/cgi_bin/nph-general.cgi?j21_aug21&BUS1


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 21:44
Silverbum barbecue theory>(barbecue theory):
On the theory that if you want it to rain--plan a barbecue and invite all your friends;maybe if I sell all my gold shares the price of the stuff will skyrocket? I wonder if the omniscient ( impotent? ) Gold God would know if I secretly kept my gold share call options?

Donald--your 21:25--sheesa no work ona my computa.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 21:40
vronsky URL COMES UP WITH ERROR MESSAGE>(URL COMES UP WITH ERROR MESSAGE):
Donald: REF - Analyst sees Dow dropping to 1955 levels ( Dow at 400 This looks like a very interesting article. Would you repost the URL, please.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 21:36
6pak Ted @ 21:11>(Ted @ 21:11):
Welcome Sean to Canada for me, and expect, he will enjoy the good people
of Cape Breton.

It don't get better - Beer - Fiddle Music - House full of debate.
I know, my Mother was a Fitzpatrick. Also, from Nova Scotia.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 21:36
vronsky Don’t Delay EURO, but... (August 22, 1997)>(Don’t Delay EURO, but... (August 22, 1997)):
Tlaga has a somewhat extreme view of the Federal Reserve monetary system and the EURO. You may NOT agree, but his depth of research is admirable:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/Tlaga004.html



Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 21:32
Donald @Home>(@Home):
TED: Save some of that stuff for export. You are screwing up the Canadian balance of payments with the US. This could be serious.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 21:29
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Japan down 174 as of this posting.
http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 21:27
Peronius Ruby Ridge Murder Charges>(Ruby Ridge Murder Charges):
AP Reports that IDAHO state authorities have filled charges against the sniper who killed Randy Weaver's wife. Freeh promised that the Federal Gov. ( !? ) will fight the charges with all its might. I have a better idea -- maybe FBI and IRS should go on strike to protest that!?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 21:25
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Analyst sees Dow dropping to 1955 levels ( Dow at 400 )
http://www.pathfinder.com/@@lD3tHwcAd*7yr6Xk/money/moneydaily/1997/970726.moneyonline.html>http://www.pathfinder.com/@@lD3tHwcAd*7yr6Xk/money/moneydaily/1997/970726.moneyonline.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 21:12
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SEC & Accounting Board to report derivitave activity.
http://www.pathfinder.com/@@j8c5pwcAc*7yr6Xk/money/moneydaily/1997/970814.moneyonline.html>http://www.pathfinder.com/@@j8c5pwcAc*7yr6Xk/money/moneydaily/1997/970814.moneyonline.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 21:11
Ted @ we're UP>(@ we're UP):
Dec. gold up .20 @ 326.80 ...........Geez,Canadian beer is gooood....accompanied by some fiddle music.....Not The Doors but it kinda grows on ya....just like a chia pet....Dow bugs gettin that sinkin feelin headin into Fridays but hey,it's just paper...the loss that is...Debate i n the background between my wife ( X teacher ) and Mr Sean Whelan on the merits of our ( your ) educational system in the USA....and here I am listening to the Rankin Family and typin trash....COOL!...Educational system in USA ( and Canada I'm sure ) does a good job of turnin out leemings...eh...can't learn that way....self-taught ( that's why I know NOTHING ) !!!hahaha....Go Gold+Molson.........down with the Irish...eh Sean....Conventional thought for tomorrow: Gold UP and Dow DOWN...but does it work that way am a ramblin wreck.....BBL ...perhaps...


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 21:06
Silverbum badger/Normandy>(badger/Normandy):
badger--another article with lots of up to date info on Normandy.
cheers, S'bum.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970821/invest/invest5.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 21:04
Donald @Home>(@Home):
( Braverman has it figured right )
Blind-sided by deflation?

While Wall Street obsesses about inflation, some fear
a drop in prices

by Lloyd Chrein
Friday, August 15, 1997

ith the economy cruising
along at a steady clip,
you may have thought the
only threat was inflation. Well, think
again. Following this week's
announcements of lower producer
prices and stable consumer costs,
some economists now say we should be wary of
inflation's polar opposite: deflation, when prices,
corporate profits and wages plunge.

One of the first symptoms of deflation, say economists, is
a steady drop in the Producer Price Index -- a monthly
survey of prices that manufacturers place on their goods.
And this week, the Commerce Department reported that
the PPI had slipped for the seventh consecutive month.

That's a loud and clear drumbeat that there's deflation in
the pipeline, says Philip Braverman, chief economist at
DKB Securities. There's a decline in crude materials
prices, intermediate prices, finished goods prices --
everywhere you look. That's downright deflation.

According to economists, the perpetually slipping PPI is
the result of various factors, including fierce competition
among manufacturers. For instance, Braverman notes that
the recent slip in car prices -- with some automakers
announcing this week that prices on some 1998 models
may actually go down from 1997 -- is an early sign of
deflation in the economy.

Unless companies maintain costs now, they can't
maintain market share, he says. And cost-cutting has a
fast trickle-down effect. Ford, for instance, recently said it
would require its suppliers to reduce prices by 5% per
year or risk losing the automaker's business, says
Braverman.

The deflation threat could become acute if the PPI drop
begins to infect other inflation indices, like the consumer
price index. That hasn't happened yet. On Thursday, the
Labor Department reported that CPI moved up 0.2% in
July after rising 0.1% in June. The core rate of inflation,
which leaves out food and energy measures, rose 0.2% in
July.

While you may not like the prospect of inflation, which
would bring higher interest rates and higher prices,
deflation is no picnic, either. Yes, prices would decline,
but so would corporate earnings and wages. Meanwhile,
you'd have to continue to pay fixed costs like real estate
taxes and long-term loans. With most people and
businesses earning less, the government would collect less
in taxes, which could reignite the budget deficit.

Overall, the economy would likely slip into a recession --
which tends to be a self-perpetuating state. If you do
allow total deflation to develop, there's this tendency for it
to feed back to the economy because consumers are
reluctant to purchase as they wait for prices to drop,
says Peter Kretzmer, senior economist at NationsBank
Capital Markets. Then you get further deflation and you
get a very weak economy.

Yet, as is frequently the case on Wall Street, opinions
rule. And when it comes to the prospect of deflation, the
forecasts are all over the lot.

Kretzmer, for example, says deflation is about as
imminent as another Depression -- that is, everything is
just fine, thank you. The economy's quite vigorous,
monetary policy is pretty appropriate -- on the neutral to
firm side, with no evidence that monetary policy is
choking off the economy -- so I don't think we have to
worry about deflation, he says.

The key to that argument is Fed policy. According to
Kretzmer, deflation is a rare situation that usually occurs
when there are financial difficulties in the economy. We
had falling prices during the Great Depression, and that
had a lot to do with the Fed's policy being too tight, which
allowed the money supply to fall by a third, which led to
banking panics. Both the deposit insurance system and a
central bank with more experience make that less likely
now.

Braverman agrees that today's Fed is too savvy to let
deflation run rampant. Thankfully, some Fed officials
recognize that low-inflation is not a one-way street that
only brings benefits. You carry it too far, you create
risks, he says.

Others are seemingly playing on another field altogether.
According to Michael Metz, the famously bearish chief
investment strategist at Oppenheimer, prices are more
likely to inflate than deflate.

This is the end of the great era of disinflation, he says.
The very strong dollar has kept downward pressure on
prices of everything manufactured here. We're also seeing
the beginning of an acceleration in wages. Finally, the
U.S. economy will soon cease to be the only one growing
very vigorously. Europe is accelerating now, and Japan
will do better, so worldwide we're going to have
something of a boom. This will put upward pressure on
industrial commodity prices.

Braverman believes that all this disagreement, with the
market remaining focused on inflation rather than
deflation, makes for a potentially dangerous situation. If
you're prepared for inflation, you can deal with it. If
you're prepared for deflation, you can deal with it, he
says. But what you can't deal with is something you're
not prepared for. We're not geared for outright deflation
in our economy and it would come as a shock on a
business and government level.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 21:02
6pak @>(@):
Mexican stock market plunges
The market is still within a consolidation process and technically it looks good but the Dow has the upper hand, Copca added.

Traders noted CS First Boston announced during the session it had cut Mexico to neutral from overweight in its model Latam stock portfolio, while it had raised Brazil to overweight from neutral.

http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Mexico-Stocks.html




Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:56
Silverbum badger/Normandy>(badger/Normandy):
badger -- some info on Normandy
Symbol:NDY
Total Issue: 1,610,774,692
Div. rate: 6cents
Current price $1.68 ( up 5 cents today )
When listed in Toronto in Oct. price will probably be multiplied by 10 to fit in with local price range.
cheers, S'bum


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:50
6pak Truth @ Prevail>(Truth @ Prevail):
WW @ 20:24: The truth will Prevail !!!
Check out my post @ 13:24 That is *truth*, by: Anthony Martin ( 1805 )


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:48
Ted @Sean + Molson>(@Sean + Molson):
Still hangin with Sean+ his bud,Molson....What the hell happened to my old friend Dow today? Thought it only went up....Storm gettin closer...
Are we UP or down tonight? Happy anniversary Novice+ Liz!!!!...GO Gold and Molson!!...


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:47
Byron @We're Into The Ninth:>(@We're Into The Ninth:):
Donald: Meow!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:47
vronsky Vision of the Markets Past & Future Ring with Clarity & Logic>(Vision of the Markets Past & Future Ring with Clarity & Logic):
In view of Friday’s 247 point plunge in the DOW, AUROPHILE’S prophetic erudite & incisive analysis is a must read by serious market students:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/Aurophile810.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:37
Miro @Shek on IRS and Y2K>(@Shek on IRS and Y2K):
Shek: your comment Get this: the IRS doesn't have the money to revamp
its computer system. They are calling on private industry to bail them
out!!! is a misinterpretation of what's going on. $200 mill. working
capital is not required to finance the modernization of IRS systems.
It's just to guarantee that the company is big enough to handle the job and
stay in business before the project is over.

Unfortunately I am too close for comfort to these modernization efforts
of the US gov.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:36
Donald @Home>(@Home):
BYRON: The fog comes in as on cats feet to cloud the stock pickers brains. Sic Em'.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:33
badger N the mine shaft>(N the mine shaft):
Silverbum;Normandy's symbol-shares & outstanding please,also your comments on Co., E at badger@lcc.net
Donald, good note on silver usage ESPECIALLY the 17% increase coming frm third world; Dejavu 50's here. As for digital I see comercial use increasing as article said, but even here, black and white is makeing a big comeback for those you seek artistic content even in everyday photography: try to imagine,Ansel Adams in color....


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:31
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:30
Donald @Home>(@Home):
( Absolutely not my point of view )
September 8, 1997

Why Not to Worry About Deflation

Rob Norton

all Street economists and analysts, like some small children,
insist on having a bogeymen to scare themselves to sleep
with. For many years, the specter of choice has been
inflation: whenever things seem to be going too well, someone warns
that inflation is just around the corner and there'll be hell to pay. But
that's become pretty unbelievable lately, with inflation as low as it's
been in a generation and with scant evidence that it will rise anytime
soon. So what's Wall Street's newest imaginary monster? It's
deflation--the economic condition in which prices, on average, fall
consistently, something that hasn't happened in the U.S. since the Great
Depression. A few Wall Street analysts--Charles Clough of Merrill
Lynch and Gary Shilling, to name two--have been warning that the
economy may be heading into deflationary territory, and nervous talk
about deflation is becoming commonplace wherever market analysts
congregate.

Sustained deflation could in fact be pretty scary. An easy way to think
about it is that deflation is the opposite of inflation. It would turn upside
down many of our basic beliefs about how we interact with the
economy. Prices of goods and services would fall on average over
time; cash would increase in value. Companies would feel pressure to
cut wages and salaries. A retiree on a fixed income would find himself
richer each month. Anyone with debts that are repaid in a stated
number of dollars--anyone, that is, with a mortgage or line of
credit--would be paying more and more each month in real terms. In
the first four years of the Depression prices fell an average of 8% per
year, and big chunks of the economy went down with them.

But there is in fact no evidence that we're witnessing deflation today,
and very little reason to worry that it will happen in the future. It's true
that some prices are falling: The most notable evidence is the producer
price index, which measures price changes at the wholesale level and
has fallen for seven months in a row. One reason for this is the sharp
decrease in the price of computers--which has been going on for
years. Another is recent drops in food and energy prices. Another is
the strength of the dollar, which makes foreign goods cheaper and
forces U.S. competitors to hold down their own prices.

But all the price declines are for goods; service prices
have kept right on rising. Goldman Sachs economist
Joseph Abate notes in a recent research report that the
softness in goods prices is actually masking extremely
stable service price inflation. And services are making up
an increasing part of GDP. That's why there is still inflation between
2% and 3% at the consumer level--where it really matters--and why it
will continue somewhere near that range for the foreseeable future.

That some prices should be falling is a logical and predictable
consequence of the low inflation policy that the Federal Reserve has
pursued in the 1990s. If the consumer price index only rises by 2.2%,
as it has in the past 12 months--and we know some prices are going
up much faster--it stands to reason that others should be falling. Why
shouldn't some prices fall, anyway? The closer we get to a state of true
price stability--zero inflation--the more this will happen. Even a mild
spell of general deflation might not be so bad. The British classical
economist Alfred Marshall noted that one effect--so long as companies
aren't cutting wages--is to deliver a real raise to workers even if their
nominal wages don't rise.

Severe deflations throughout history have occurred
in economic circumstances far different from ours:
when the economy has been contracting ( today it's
expanding ) ; when corporate profits are nonexistent
( they're robust ) ; and when unemployment is rising
( it's falling ) . All told, the notion that the U.S.
economy is entering an age of deflation, says Allan
Meltzer--chairman of Carnegie Mellon's business school and a
monetary economist of some note--is utter nonsense.



Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:28
6pak Cud @ Chew on>(Cud @ Chew on):
August 21, 1997

Wall Street plunges in volatile trading

NEW YORK ( AP-CP ) - Stocks veered off the road to recovery Thursday.

On a day when there's not much other cud to chew, this ( report ) turns into something that people try and make noteworthy, said Crane, adding there was little in the way of major economic news to steer the market.

http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Stocks.html




Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:24
WW @NE>(@NE):
GOLD YES PAPER NO The Truth will Prevail!!!!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:23
Dr. Auric ER>(ER):

Well, I believe ER is on tonight, and gold has been in cardiac arrest lately. Dr. Arnold and Dr. Rubin have pronounced it dead. As the Good Senator would say, NOTHING is over until WE decide it is. A shock will soon be applied to the system which will get the Heart of Gold beating again. The following makes the point--- http://www.rnceus.com/norm.htm


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:21
Silverbum @Aussie markets>(@Aussie markets):
All ords down -25.6 ( 2624.1 )
Gold ind. up +7 ( 1344.9 )
Going opposite directions for a change.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:07
Byron @ Great Expectations:>(@ Great Expectations:):
Donald: Oracle in the corner is a-stiring. Has a Cheshire like look on its face. Somethings afoot. ( ^%^ )


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:05
panda @>(@):
Yellow Jacket -- Welcome! One other thing, we occasionally talk about gold here. The primary purpose of this site is dedicated to the end of the world as we know it. :- ) )

( Just kidding folks! Calm down! )

Ray -- BE CAREFUL with those spx/spz things! If you have a profit take it! I've had nice profits in those things, only to watch the profits disappear in an hour or two! It usually happens when I turn my back to the monitor! :- ) )


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:03
Silverbear @home>(@home):
Silver up .03 to 4.56 since New York close. Didn't George Cole predict the market would drop today a few days ago?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:01
Silverbum @Normandy>(@Normandy):
Anyone considering diversifying into Aussie gold shares can't go past Normandy.Will soon be producing 2 000 000 oz/yr at a very respectable cost.Will also be listing in Toronto in October so should generate more buying interest in N.America. Will rank Normandy as world's @fourth biggest producer.Get in quick as the share price is at low level for a company with cash in the bank and huge reserves in the ground.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/970822/invest/invest1.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 20:01
Donald @Home>(@Home):
BADGER: I remember once when the phone company was on strike the union took out an ad asking everyone to pay 1 cent extra on their bill. Must have drove them nuts.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 19:55
badger @hand on fawcet>(@hand on fawcet):
Shek; when your enemy is drowning, hand them a waterhose!,what do you suppose we could do to break the camel's back? Sometime I send the electric co. an exta 10 cents so they have'ta hand sort.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 19:52
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
6-pak- that is a goood idea. Steve how do I do that?

Tally Ho


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 19:46
Shek From Gary North's web site>(From Gary North's web site):
About the IRS and y2k:
What do they have to fix? 62 million lines of code on 63 different mainframes. This is what they call their core business systems. They have completed this inventory. But, with respect to the business supported field applications and infrastructures, however, we do not know what we do not know. Until central field systems and infrastructures are completed, the IRS will be unable to analyze, plan, and schedule the field system conversion. ( Electronic page 19 . . . paper, 13. )


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 19:41
Shek from Gary North's page>(from Gary North's page):
From Gary North's site

IRS Issues SOS
This document is amazing. Its title: Request for Comments ( RFC ) for
Modernization Prime Systems Integration Services Contractor.
Behind this seemingly innocuous verbiage lies a time bomb for the
U.S. government, the T-bill market, and every central bank that is
holding U.S. debt instead of gold.
On May 15, 1997, the IRS issued a call for large, experienced
computer code repair companies ( $200 million in working capital ) to
sign up to help restructure the entire IRS computer system. It's at the
breaking point. The Millennium Bug will break it.
They admit that part of their problem is y2k, or as it's called by the
government and the Federal Reserve System, CDC ( century date change ) .
Get this: the IRS doesn't have the money to revamp its computer
system. They are calling on private industry to bail them out!!! http://www.ustreas.gov/treasury/bureaus/irs/prime/primerfc.htm


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 19:32
badger look'n round corner....>(look'n round corner....):
Greetings all; Auric, Donald Et al., good to see Mr. President and thenadless feathered one have seen fit to visit elsewhere. the've no dought been welcomed like a tooth ache.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 19:31
Yellow Jacket @ Home>(@ Home):
DONALD: Thanks for the welcome. You're right. There are some golden nuggets
of information to be found at the site. And I'll put my two cents in every once
in a while.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 19:30
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Demand for silver in photography rises.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/19/ek_y0023_1.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 19:30
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
6pack: You're right again. Just buy my book -- Total Collapse.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 19:23
Glenn XXXX>(XXXX):
Robert McKinnon - Thanks for your contribution.

DJ - Aug 20 ( 21:13 ) - Re: Commercial position and gold movements. - Many of the large mining companies who currently hedge there production have taken a consistently more active approach towards hedging since 1987. This is not opinion but fact! Also a fact is that Barrick Gold spends $50,000,000 per year on there hedging program. This is not what they recieve from hedging this is simply overhead to pay saleries, commisions etc...When they first started they simply sold gold forward to protect themselves, now they sell near the top and buy back near the bottom tring to make a profit as if they are a hedge fund. So if all Gold is going to move is $30 then that's all it will do and they will go from net short to net long in $30. Infact I am sure that some of there hedges they will put on one day and if Gold drops $2 or $3 they will take them off the next day! As far as the record short position Gold will not go up simply because of a large short position from the funds. Gold goes up because of a large increase in crude oil or a large decline in the stock market or some other similar event. Under idea conditions it will be many events like Oil going up AND Stocks and bonds going down at the same time. How large of a short position Gold has in and of it self will not effect the stock market. Wheather the funds are short 100 tons or 10,000 tons will not determine if stocks go down next month or simply turn around and make new highs. But the short position will do is if stocks and bonds do go down alot more then Gold will rally higher if it has a large short position on by the funds. Understand!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 19:12
6pak Steve Puetz @ ?>(Steve Puetz @ ?):
Steve, I like the name Pitts, that name, sounds better, eh! : ) : ) : )


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 19:09
bioman selectorama>(selectorama):

If it looks like the fsagx will be weak tomorrow morning try fbiox. I thought I got clobbered today, only to find that I was up 80 basis points.



Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 19:06
6pak Ray @ 18:42>(Ray @ 18:42):
Don't owe the guy, Hell. buy the guy's book. : ) : ) : ) Right, Puetz ! : )


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 18:58
kiwi Earl>(Earl):
Actually the mathematics has its own attraction, the markets make an interesting playground for such problems as does fluid dynamics.
The one comment I'll never forget made by a very learned Swiss fluid dynamicist/mathematician mentor of mine, exact solutions are like Gold.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 18:42
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
Steve Puetz- man I owe ya, thanks for the tip on the s&p puts.
In the money in Louisianer.

Tally Ho


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 18:42
6pak Earl @ 18:24>(Earl @ 18:24):
That was great Earl, : ) : ) : ) Thanks, Take care.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 18:24
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
6pak: From your post: All government workers go on strike. YES,YES,YES, please do encourage these people. .......... Not satisfied with merely reporting history Now you want to direct it? ..... Just kidding. :- ) )


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 18:23
guerin buffet does'nt hold forever >(buffet does'nt hold forever ):
Jack, about BRK selling it's stake in WFC, it's hard to believe, since it is well of it's high of 320. Did Coca-Cola chin make a SEC filing ?, how do you know, or is this just a rumor ? I have heard reports on the local news station here that Buffet has been warning he can't find a single thing to buy, so it would'nt suprise me if he did sell.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 18:18
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Kiwi: Interesting analogy, market versus fluid dynamics. Like most such analogies, I would imagine that a superficial pondering of the elements is more interesting than actually grinding through the arithmetic. Eh?
...... :- ) )


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 18:10
guerin ben@hogan.com>(ben@hogan.com):
The Gold Bug


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 18:04
Donald @Home>(@Home):
YELLOW JACKET: Welcome. Lots of good stuff here at Kitco, you will enjoy it.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 17:55
Donald @Home>(@Home):
China engineers a deflation.
http://washingtonpost.com:80/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-08/21/075l-082197-idx.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 17:45
Yellow Jacket @ Work. Check from home later.>(@ Work. Check from home later.):
DRP, DONALD: re: penguins and the birth of Christ...Very educational discussions today. DROOY up 1/4 to 2-1/2. Things are looking up a bit. I'm new to the group and am happy to see that there's more culture and variety to the discussions than last night's dialogue with Bill Clinton.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 17:42
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Bundesbank talks tough.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/21/z0009_111.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 17:37
Auric AGAIN!!>(AGAIN!!):

Earth sciences- http://hum.amu.edu.pl/~zbzw/glob/glob1.htm Anagrams http://www.infobahn.com/pages/anagram.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 17:31
Auric Surfer Dude>(Surfer Dude):

Here are two cool links to pass the time until the battle resumes in Asia tonight. Here is a very visually pleasing, simple to use site on earth sciences. Earthquakes and volcanoes and storms ( oh my ) . And the graphics are killer! http://hum.amu.edu.pl/~zbzw/glob/glob/1.htm On the lighter side, here is a site for generating anagrams. Easy to use, and fun. Just the thing while awaiting Armageddon. http://www.infobahn..com/pages/anagram.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 17:25
kiwi Profiteering>(Profiteering):
Profit taking hits European shares.
Any theories where all these profits are being taken too?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 17:25
DRP When was el Nino born>(When was el Nino born):
. In all probability, Christ was born in August.snip... History scholars tell us that these taxation periods under those Roman rulers were held in August, after the olive and grape plants were able to be left for a time, the roads were dry and passable, and the autumn harvest not yet begun. The real Christmas birth came in late summer. Perhaps Jesus was a Leo.

Another possibility that has been suggested: If memory serves, Shepards watch their flocks by night in Palestine for a brief period around April.





Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 17:21
korondy korondy@frii.com>(korondy@frii.com):
Listen to the King of Kitco, George S. Cole. He is right, the banking sector WILL get hit, and soon. One way to play it is to buy puts on the Bank Sector Index ( $BKX.X ) . Here is the daily chart ( 5-min, 1-min, etc. also available free. )

http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/chart?symbols=$BKX.X&time_period=Daily&bars=100&newstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key=&mode=Daily%20Chart


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 17:12
Donald @Home>(@Home):
This is a place the US gave Most Favored Nation status to?
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970821/entertainment/stories/culture_china_1.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 17:05
kiwi Turbulence Buffeting the Markets?>(Turbulence Buffeting the Markets?):
Are you guys psychic? Just got back from a trip around the banks where Wells Fargo who have Gold eagles on their portfolio brochure told me they don't deal with Gold because its' too valuable to keep on the premises....you what?! On the same brochure there is a disclaimer where the mutual funds they try to push you into at a measly 4.91% are NOT insured by FDIC or US government...are NOT obligations by the Bank.

What a house of cards.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 16:58
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SPUD MASTER: A herd of penguins? I had never heard of that so I looked it up expecting to find a flock or mabye a school. Alas, my encyclopedia did not say, but showed a photo with the caption using the word group. The things you learn at Kitco. Anyway, a big bunch of them are goin' off the cliff in my photo.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 16:52
George Cole Buffett>(Buffett):
Jack: I supect Buffett is concerned with both the overall market and the banking industry in particular. The whole financial services sector has had had an enormous run and probably is more vulnerable than any other when the market and the economy turn down. If the Dow drops 30% look for many of the leading banks and brokers to plunge 50-70%.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 16:51
6pak Bonnie And Clyde @ 15:50>(Bonnie And Clyde @ 15:50):
When you are on the road again, and you must do your banking business.
Please do it in another town, our town is made up of honest, hard working
welfare folks. Doing their very best, for God, and Country, and some
times, there is enough strength left, to work for one's family.
Taxes, you know, is a killer, for hard working folks, eh!

Your services are most likely, more appreciated, in the next town, OK.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 16:49
2 oscillationniotalliscooscillationniotallisco>(oscillationniotalliscooscillationniotallisco):
Speaking of the Dow's wavy wobbling reminds me of the film we all saw in physics class, the Takoma Narrows Bridge Collapse. Time to get off the bridge.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 16:47
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Dow/Gold Ratio 24.38; going in the right direction.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 16:39
Jack Buffet>(Buffet):

The Berkshire vehicle combined sales were in the neighborhood of 2.2 billion. Makes the Aussie gold sale look bleek in comparishion. Is Buffet losing interest in banks or is the market concerning him?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 16:34
Spud Master (groan)>((groan)):
wharehouse = warehouse
posed = poised

where is Spankygirl to correct our English?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 16:31
Tim @home>(@home):
Panda: Great Charts, Sir ! For those who would like to explore the intricacies of the TRIN index, e-analytics has a good explanation at
http://www.e-analytics.com/trin.htm


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 16:31
Spud Master teetering (ps - Arden, some AU wharehouse numbers, please!)>(teetering (ps - Arden, some AU wharehouse numbers, please!)):
Kiwi - right on target! The oscillations in the Dow keep getting larger & larger. What next? 600 point daily swings? 2,000 points daily swings? This thing is nothing so much as a herd of electronic penguins posed on the cliff face ... waiting for one accident to send the whole herd over the edge.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 16:25
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Sean Whelan and his buddy Molson just showed up......Bad weather movin in...BBL.....maybe!.....


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 16:24
panda @TICK chart>(@TICK chart):
Barney -- No problem...

TICK chart, notice the 'improvment' at the close. Remember this when you hear, And the closing TICK was Bullish..




Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 16:11
panda @updated tick+trin>(@updated tick+trin):
$TRIN chart going in to the close....



Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 16:11
BARNEY @Minnesota>(@Minnesota):
Panda: Thanks for the 15:24 post. I need all the help I can get.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 16:02
Tom Tcast@sprynet.com>(Tcast@sprynet.com):
Buffet liquidates holdings in two companies...
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/21/brka_gd_t_1.html




Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 15:57
6pak Interest rates @ rising?>(Interest rates @ rising?):
Thursday, August 21, 1997
Trade surplus decline worries economists
By BUD JORGENSEN
Economics Reporter The Financial Post

Rising stocks have raised concerns about production slowdowns in the second half for inventory adjustments.

The import total for June was $17.06 billion, while the value of exports was $19.9 billion. The figures are adjusted by StatsCan to account for seasonal factors.

Canada's imports were down by 1% in June from May, and this decline suggests that household spending is not increasing as rapidly as most economists had expected.

http://www.canoe.ca/FP/econ_aug21_tradesurpl.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 15:50
Bonnie And Clyde Git rid of dem>(Git rid of dem):

Bonnie: That thar 6pak guy is right, dem there rich guys don't do a stich of work and keep making more money than hard working folk and our government lets'em git away with it.
When one of those developing countries devaluate; the boss who runs all the governments puts dem countries under their control by giving them loans, so they can control the industries in them low wage countries.
Clyde: Thats why we robs the bosses banks and to make a little money too. I feel bad when I has to shot somebody, but them bankers ruined more people by slow torture than we ever hurt.
Bonnie: Clyde, have you hidden all the gold we bought? Them there feds have all kinds of devises to check where its buried.
Clyde: Took the stuff out of the back 40 and put it in 10 thick lead boxes, then buried it one of dem National Parks we visited. Spotted Al won't let anyone dig up in those their places.
Bonnie: Now I know why you like camping so much.
Clyde: Luv'ya girl.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 15:46
Donald @Home>(@Home):
U.S. August Philadelphia Fed Index Fell to 24.3 From 28.1

Business activity at Philadelphia-area manufacturers expanded at a slower pace in August than it
did in July, a sign the region's manufacturing economy may be shifting into a lower gear. The
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index -- compiled from a survey of
about 150 manufacturers in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware -- dropped
to 24.3 in August from 28.1 in July. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the
index to fall to 21.2. Still, the positive reading means the number of companies reporting stepped-
up activity surpassed those reporting weakening business.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 15:43
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Japan leading indicator index deep in negative territory,
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 15:24
panda @>(@):
For those who do not understand $TICK and $TRIN, simply put, ticks below zero indicate selling. The more negative the number, the greater the selling. TRIN is a short term trading index. Simply put, numbers below one indicate buying pressure and numbers above one indicate selling pressure. You can find more comprehensive information on the indexes on the Internet, I'm sure...


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 15:23
FYI re 08:11, birth of christchild>(re 08:11, birth of christchild):
Mike Sheller: The current December date for celebrating Christmas is a date created by the early church to provide competition for the rival religions that have a winter solstice celebration, thereby helping to attract converts to Christianity. The lights, yule log, fire and warmth symbols all derive from those other religions such as Druidism, etc. In all probability, Christ was born in August. Remember There went out a decree from Caesar Augustus that all the world should be taxed, and this taxing was first made when Cyrenius was governor of Syria. And Joseph also went up out of Galiliee to be taxed, into the city of David, for he was of the house and lineage of David. History scholars tell us that these taxation periods under those Roman rulers were held in August, after the olive and grape plants were able to be left for a time, the roads were dry and passable, and the autumn harvest not yet begun. The real Christmas birth came in late summer. Perhaps Jesus was a Leo.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 15:20
panda @tick+trin>(@tick+trin):
Here's a $TRIN chart.



Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 15:18
panda @tick+trin>(@tick+trin):
Here's a $TICK chart.



Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 14:56
6pak Petronius @ 14:33>(Petronius @ 14:33):
All government workers go on strike.
YES,YES,YES, please do encourage these people.

Such strike action, will put a kink, in the Modern Artificial Control
System. We, desperately need these government workers to go on STRIKE.

It will be an act of freedom for the people, short circuit the control
system. Great eh!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 14:45
George Cole markets trends changing>(markets trends changing):
Stock market topping and gold troughing. If the Dow fails to soon break through the previous closing high around 8250, look for a quick retest of Friday's closing low around 7700. If that level is penetrated with conviction, 7500 should be challenged soon after. A decisive break below 7500 will signal to all loudly and clearly that the bull is over and gold will then start to sprint.

Even if the Dow can get to 8500 by some miracle, this will only postpone the stock bear and gold bull a month or two.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 14:44
Donald @Home>(@Home):
President of Kenya on phone to IMF @ 1-800-BAILOUT
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/21/z0000_z00_20.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 14:42
6pak The other point of view @ 12:22>(The other point of view @ 12:22):
If it wasn't for us Capitalists you Welfarists
( since you obviously don't want to take care of your own families
*welfare* through *hard work* )

( fools and horses work, and horses, but their backs to it ) : ) : ) : )

The central banks, and Corporations are continually receiving *welfare*
is their work *hard* or *soft*, or not at all, that is your Capitalists.

Modern Artificial Control, by Capitalists, surely is *HARD* work, eh!



Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 14:40
nomercy Clinton Steps in to Avert Amtrak Strike>(Clinton Steps in to Avert Amtrak Strike):
EDGARTOWN, Mass. ( Reuter ) - President Clinton moved to postpone any strike at the Amtrak railroad by 60 days
Thursday, acting two days after the Teamsters Union ended a disruptive two-week walkout at United Parcel Service ( UPS ) .
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970821/news/stories/amtrak_2.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 14:38
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Brazil Quiz; how many mini-devaluations does it take to make a maxi-devaluation?
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/21/z0009_83.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 14:33
Petronius Amtrak on Strike>(Amtrak on Strike):
Oh, NO!!!! That would really be a disaster. But it reminded me of something. We are forgetting this other ( other than Teamsters ) abused, underappreciated labor group: the government workers. Think about it, more work with all these pesky militias popping up, respect below that of a used car salesman. All of this while these greedy capitalist speculators are getting richer and richer. I say all the government workers need to go on a strike.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 14:26
vronsky THE INGER MARKET FORECAST>(THE INGER MARKET FORECAST):
To get a near-term low... do we need an Institutional Panic? The very boys & girls that tell you not to panic, will… panic. Then you'll see a real decline:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger818.html



Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 14:18
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
Anthony Martin: Lighten up, dude! Haven't you ever heard of cryonics? http://www.alcor.org/ . Come on, gold! I need $350K in popsicle money, quick!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 14:00
nomercy Gene>(Gene):
...'propping' or 'desperation'...
CNBC rumour - Amtrak employees threaten to strike = wage acceleration = long term yields up to 6.59%
Also Warren Buffett cashed out his stake in Wells Fargo ( this is not a rumour, but fact re: filing )


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 13:59
Lazarus chobart@ch2m.com>(chobart@ch2m.com):

Miro 13:31

Thanks,
Don't want to slow down Kitco any more than necessary. Email address is valid. Non-gold question ( sorry ) is that the output format for the column heading? Or do I have to use a TO_CHAR manipulation within the F ( x ) ? New at SQL PL/SQL - looking for classes. That example was just a scary encounter I had this morning while playing with some customized aging report variations.
thanks again - only gold posts in future cmh :- )


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 13:51
6pak Bear @ Truth>(Bear @ Truth):
We, forever, search the truth. Well, that epitaph of Anthony Martin, is
the raw, plain, simple, Bear [ : ) : ) : ) ] truth, eh!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 13:48
Petronius Coughing Bulls>(Coughing Bulls):
The Bulls seem to have a little caugh this morning. But, do not worry that is just a little profit taking. But, why would you take the profits now?! Remember, the Dow will easily crash through 10,000. There will be no inflation, every American will be able to retire and live on stock profits.

A little question. Wouldn't such a setup require the US military to cruise over all the countries on Earth ( especially Asia ) transmitting the following maessage:
- We are the US, the only superpower on earth
- You will submit, resistance is futile
- You will produce all the junk the Americans love so much
- You will accept US IOUs in return
- You will not complain
- You will let your government abuse you so you work harder
- We need more junk
- We are the US, the only superpower on earth....




Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 13:45
kiwi High Entropy Markets>(High Entropy Markets):
Fluid dynamics have shown that shortly before a catastrophic adjustment to a new equilibrium state a liquid system reaches its' highest entropy. Considering the equity markets as a liquid system and observing such variables as the DJIA, recent large-scale short-term motions indicate we are at a state of high entropy. Moving average and momentum simulations can never predict such events because they don't have phase information ( frequencies ) included.
By understanding entropy will we be able to control undesirable exponential growth and collapse in liquidity markets, in much the same way as we are coming to understanding turbulent fluid dynamics. The mathematics aren't quite there yet so we must expect our boom/bust cycles to continue until these filter through into the banking system.
As with fluid dynamics when an adjustment takes place it will be much like a cyclonic or tornadic event sucking in all in its' path.
My entropy simulations on the DJIA indicate that such an event is imminent, only advice batten down the hatches.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 13:37
panda @>(@):
TED-- Boy have we got some windy, rainy stuff for you! If you like wind driven rain...

Dow off 110+ XAU up 1.25

It would be real nice if the XAU could break and hold 101...


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 13:34
paths Wall street gets pessimistic@about time>(Wall street gets pessimistic@about time):
Did somebody just say now that the DOW is back above 8000, or was that back bove 7900 hehehe. 7924 -96


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 13:34
paths Wall street gets pessimistic@about time>(Wall street gets pessimistic@about time):
Did somebody just say now that the DWO is back above 8000, or was that back bove 7900 hehehe. 7924 -96


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 13:31
Miro @Lazarus on PL/SQL and Y2K>(@Lazarus on PL/SQL and Y2K):
Lazarus,
your example od PL/SQL returned the wrong result because you used a
default date format YY. This format will infer a century using the
current century ( for 00 - 1900 ) . If you used date format RR this
would correctly infer year 2000 from input date 00 and MONTH_BETWEEN
function would return the correct result.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 13:24
6pak Death @ Follow me>(Death @ Follow me):
Lurker 99.99 Pure @ Aug 20 @ 18:52. Very interesting material regarding
famous people's, wills. I found the 1700s, very interesting. I have taken
the liberty, because it is not gold related. I thought it would be of
interest to the group.

According to the Virginia Magazine of History and Biography, the epitaph reads:

Here lies the remains of Anthony Martin, Born the 26th day of September 1737 and departed this life the 3rd day of June, 1805, aged 67 years, 8 months and 7 days.

Remember me as you pass by
As you are now, so once was I.
As I am now you soon must be,
Prepare for death and follow me.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 13:11
paths paths@ibm.net>(paths@ibm.net):
As for the recent high-profile gold sales by central banks, such as the
Reserve Bank of Australia, Mr. Willson said no one appears to notice
that there were more central banks buying gold than selling it last
year. Key buyers were Russia and China, he said. Mr. Willson said
overall central bank holdings were very, very stable.

Rising inflation, drop in equity markets should boost metal, Placer Dome
boss says:
http://vancouver.canada.com/cgi-bin/pacpress.pl?adcode=b-mn&nkey=vs&filetype=fullstory&file=/business/markets/970821/m0821mt04.html



Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 12:58
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
Nomercy: Interesting post about weak stock and bond fund inflows. My mutual fund broker has been bugging me to convert cash into mutual funds for the past few days. Since money is already in a fund family he would receive no commission for this transaction. I wonder if brokers have been beating the bushes trying to prop up the stock market.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 12:46
symbol (y2k problem)>((y2k problem)):
As a professional Programmer for more than 25 years, I offer this small piece of hope... ( forlorn as it may be ) The vast majority of the code I have written, If not 100% outright, does *not* have any y2k problem. It often does have a year 2050 problem, however. I wonder how may people will be caught by that one!? : ) I also wonder, how many other programmers have consistently used this type of code?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 12:45
nomercy (09:29 EDT 08/18) US BOND & STOCK FUND INFLOW WEAK IN LATEST PERIOD>((09:29 EDT 08/18) US BOND & STOCK FUND INFLOW WEAK IN LATEST PERIOD):
NEW YORK ( MktNews ) - U.S. bond funds lost cash at an estimated monthly rate of $0.9 billion in
the three days ended Thursday, August 14 vs. inflows based on a monthly rate of $0.1 billion in the two
days ended Monday, August 11, Trim Tabs reported Monday.
Equity funds saw net outflows at a monthly rate of $2.8 billion in the latest period compared to
outflows at a monthly rate of $50.9 billion in the previous period.
In the latest three-day period, bond funds saw outflows of $0.1 billion compared to a flat reading in
the prior two-day period.
For the month of August 1997 based on the first 14 days of the month, Trim Tabs estimated bond
fund inflow at $1.2 billion vs.
estimated inflows of $2.1 billion in July and estimated inflows of $4.0 billion reported by the
Investment Company Institute.
Equity funds had an estimated net outflow of $0.4 billion in the latest three-day period vs. outflows
of $4.9 billion in the prior two-day period.
Trim Tabs estimated equity outflows for the month of August, based on the first 14 days of the
month, at $2.8 billion vs. estimated inflows of $18.6 billion in July and estimated inflows of $23.0 billion
reported by the ICI in July.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 12:39
Lurker monsters from the jungle>(monsters from the jungle):
Monstrous boa!!! 130' long, 15' in diameter. It's not enough that the IRS is squeezing us to death, now we have a giant monster to finish the job.

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970820/odd/stories/monster_1.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 12:35
Lazarus @the_cave>(@the_cave):

Just a note from the corporate IT/FA ( glorified data entry - the SYSTEM is UP ) perspective:

I enquired the HR department if they could add more fund options in the 401k portfolio here ( there are no precious metals options available ) their response, ( paraphrasing a bit ) No, we don't want to expose our employees to risky investments.... ( what a hoot, like stock funds aren't?!? oh that's right Assuming a 10% per year return... gag )

Next question for those out there who are more knowledgeable: I already moved everything out of FMAGX & FDGRX on July 9, 1997 into the retirement MMF. What are the pros & cons of liquidating the 401k balance? Tax bite in 97 versus 98?

Regardless, my post-tax savings have been dollar cost averaging in gold funds on the dips ( I'm feeling a bit gold-buggered ) . My analysis methods lead me to believe that yes, gold is heading lower :- ( , $300 +- 5 by mid September. But I reserve the right to be completely wrong ( I have been before when I thought the DOW would crest at 8k ) . I am however a taurus living in Aurora ( prophetic? ) and I trust that by next spring the ( gold ) bear will be hibernating and the ( gold ) bulls will have the pasture to themselves.

Oh, just a Y2k note:

Using SQL/Plus there are 12 months between Jan 96 and Jan 97:

SQL select months_between ( '01-JAN-97','01-JAN-96' )
2 from
3 dual
4 /

MONTHS_BETWEEN ( '01-JAN-97','01-JAN-96' )
---------------------------------------
12

but how many between Jan 99 and Jan 00?

SQL select months_between ( '01-JAN-00','01-JAN-99' )
2 from
3 dual
4 /

MONTHS_BETWEEN ( '01-JAN-00','01-JAN-99' )
---------------------------------------
-1188

SQL

This should make accrual accounting/reporting *really* interesting...
Oh, the IT manager did write a White Paper, It appears that the company will bet the farm ( actual IT employee quote - though not in the paper! ) that the Oracle 10.7 version will solve all the problems they have so far uncovered.

Well back to indentured servitude so that my 5 month old ( Chance - he was concieved during the honeymoon in Vegas... ) may have a chance... cheers to all, bulls & bears alike.

Just another lurker enjoying the show - oh, one more question regarding the Gold-Eagle intraday site http://www.gold-eagle.com/intra-day.html
Why do the the futures graphs have that funky time-warp segment which appears to go backwards at the 9:45 - 9:30 area?

Thanks again,

C. M. H.



Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 12:28
6pak Foreigners @ Canada>(Foreigners @ Canada):
Foreigners buying fewer Canadian stocks
But, overall, foreigners invested a total $5.5 billion in Canadian
securities from January to June of this year, compared with $11.9
billion in first six months of 1996.

http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Securities.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 12:22
The other point of view @work>(@work):
Dear Wondering!?! :
Very well put. Does that mean that you're now in WW's camp? My guess is you want to see that wealth spread out amoungst those who presently don't do anything to deserve it. Everyone's equal so everyone gets a fair share? Sounds a lot like communism to me my friend. Nope, can't agree with your premise nor logic. Man needs something to strive for or else he becomes lazy and useless to himself and others. It may not be perfect, but it sure beats your idea of paradise. If it wasn't for us capitalists you welfarists wouldn't have the money to spend ( since you obviously don't want to take care of your own families welfare through hard work! )

ALL:
Overheard, Bill Gates talking to one of his financial advisers: You spent my $150-million on WHAT?!?!? I said SNAPPLE!!!!



Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 12:19
vronsky THE CIRCULAR CHARADE by Tlaga - Controversial & Intriguing Read!>(THE CIRCULAR CHARADE by Tlaga - Controversial & Intriguing Read!):
The entire Federal Debt will have to be repudiated together with Federal Reserve notes. The Federal Reserve note is a cancer, and Federal Debt is what sustains it:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/Tlaga003.html



Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 12:14
Lurker new highs?>(new highs?):
Bill Meechen ( sp? ) with Prudential Securities was just on CNBC. He said the II # ( Investor Sentiment ) was low, 39%, and the last eight times this has occurred the market rallied to new highs within three months. Does anyone have any information on this?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 12:00
Senator Blutarsky Inspirational Quotes >(Inspirational Quotes ):

http://us.imdb.com/cache/title-more/quotes+75947


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 11:46
Senator Blutarsky El Wino>(El Wino):

For TED: http://bestware.net/spreng/animal/links.htm


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 11:36
nomercy S&P downgrades- Malasyan banks>(S&P downgrades- Malasyan banks):
MELBOURNE, Australia-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --S & P CreditWire 8/21/97--Standard & Poor's today affirmed its
counterparty ratings on Malayan Banking Berhad and Arab-Malaysian Merchant Bank Berhad but revised the outlook on these
ratings to negative from stable ( see list below ) .
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/97/08/21/y0004_1.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 11:34
nomercy S&P downgrades Indonesian Banks >(S&P downgrades Indonesian Banks ):
MELBOURNE, Australia, Aug. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- Standard & Poor's today affirmed its ratings on Bank Negara Indonesia
( P.T. ) , Bank Danamon Indonesia ( P.T. ) and Bank Umum Nasional ( P.T. ) but revised the outlook on these ratings to negative
from stable. Bank Niaga ( P.T. ) remains on CreditWatch with negative implications, where it was placed on July 30, 1997. ( see
list below ) .
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/08/21/y0004_3.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 11:12
Wondering!?! @Found Objects On Net>(@Found Objects On Net):

I see the power game resting on three levels of force and fraud. First, earliest and still most powerful is the government racket itself, the monopoly on force ( military power, police power, etc. ) which allows the governing group to take tribute ( taxation ) from the enslaved or deluded masses. Second, derivative from this primordial conquest, is the landlord racket, the mammalian monopoly on territory which allow's the king's relations ( lords-of-the-land ) or their successors, today's land-lords, to take tribute ( rent ) from those who live within the territory. Rent is the daughter of taxation; the second degree of the same racket. Third, the latest in historical time, is the usury racket, the monopoly on the issue of currency which allows the money lords to take tribute ( interest ) on the creation of money or credit, and on the continuous circulation of the money or credit every step of the way. Interest is the son of rent, the rent of money. Since most people engaged in nefarious practices are, in my opinion, very loathe to acknowledge what they are doing, and are addicted to the same hypocrisies as the rest of humanity, I think all power groups quite sincerely believe that what they are doing is proper, and that anybody who attacks them is a revolutionary nut. Outside of the Klingons on Star Trek, I have never encountered a real predator who justifies himself on Stirnerite or Machiavellian grounds. I really think Saroyan was right, naïve as it sounds, in saying that every man is a good man in his own eyes.

Of the world's 100 largest economies, 51 are corporations. Only 49 are countries. The economy of Mitsubishi is larger than that of Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous country and a land of enormous natural wealth. •The combined sales of the world's top 200 corpora tions are equal to 28 percent of the world GDP. •These same 200 corporations employ only 18.8 million people, less than 1/3 of one percent of the world's people—and the downsizing continues. In 1995 the total value of mergers and acquisitions for the world exceeded any prior year by 25 percent.

The primary accountability of these corporations is to the global financial markets in which each day $1.4 trillion in foreign exchange changes hands in the search for speculative profits wholly unrelated to any exchange of real goods or services.

Whose interests are represented by these financial markets to which the world's most powerful corporations are beholden? In the United States 77 percent of share holder wealth is owned by a mere 5 percent of house holds. The broader population that holds a beneficial ownership through pension funds is represented in corporate governance by a few hundred fund managers who have no accountability to the beneficial owners beyond protecting the security of their benefits. Globally the share of the world's population that has a consequen tial participation in corporate ownership is far less than 1 percent. This concentration of corporate power ac countable only to a tiny global elite denies the most basic principles of democratic governance. It also results in an ever increasing concentration of the world's wealth. Forbes magazine now identifies 447 billionaires in the world, up from only 274 in 1991. Their combined assets are roughly equal to the total annual incomes of the poorest half of humanity.




Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 11:00
2 Good news, bad news>(Good news, bad news):
Getchell 36 up 1 3/8 3.97%
Newmont 42 3/16 up 7/16 1.05%
Vaal Reefs 5 up 1/8 2.56%
Buff Bills QB Jim Kelly's 6-month old son - Krabbe's globoid cell leukodystrophy is a rare, degenerative, lysosomal enzyme disorder of the central and peripheral nervous systems that results from almost complete deficiency of galactosylceramide B-galactoside activity. The onset of symptoms is usually between the ages of 3 and 6 months, after which infants rapidly lose previously attained developmental skills. The children fail to thrive, have unexplained fevers, irritability, myoclonic seizures, blindness, spasticity, and paralysis and usually do not survive beyond the age of 2 years.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:57
Au99.9 @ Contributions>(@ Contributions):
Donald. You may be right. But if the US is as well paid up in the IMF as it is in the UN, then I have my doubts. In any event, on a per capita basis, Australia's handout to bailout the Baht, must be by a huge order of magnitude, excessively generous.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:56
MACHINE GUN KELLY TO GENERAL>(TO GENERAL):
It's a secret. But you'll find out. I have no mercy, that I can tell you.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:52
nomercy Normandy Mining -Great Central Mines and two other companies>(Normandy Mining -Great Central Mines and two other companies):
The move comes at a time when the gold sector is caught in a period of major reorganisation, likely to result in the
big getting bigger, leaving the rest at the mercy of the predators.
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970822/business/business5.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:51
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Gold demand increases in Brazil and Mexico
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/20/y0023_z00_16.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:50
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Gold demand increases in Brazil and Mexico.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:48
General to MG Kelly>(to MG Kelly):
Hey bubba, what kind of gat are you packing? a sub-gun?
a M16? Gold and guns, my favorite commodities!!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:48
nomercy Australia worried about El Nino & Wall Street crash>(Australia worried about El Nino & Wall Street crash):
We can only hope that in our weakened psychological condition we are not hit by an external shock such as a
Wall Street crash.
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970822/business/business10.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:47
Auric Who will be the prick that bursts this bubble?>(Who will be the prick that bursts this bubble?):

Mike Sheller--A reasonable birth place and time for El Nino would be near the Equator in the West-Central Pacific. How about zero degrees Latitude, 180 degrees Longitude, at the moment of the Spring Equinox?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:47
panda @$$$>(@$$$):
Dollar losing some of its' luster? http://www.ebn.co.uk/Markets/Currency/


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:45
Donald @Home>(@Home):
AU99.99: I don't think the US made any direct contribution to the Thai bailout. But as the major contributor to the IMF there is an indirect contribution ( as there is for Australia ) .


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:44
vronsky 839 GLOBAL SOURCES of Daily Business & Financial News From 6 Continents>(839 GLOBAL SOURCES of Daily Business & Financial News From 6 Continents):
No website completely covers important world events and happenings like GOLD-EAGLE's Global News. Therefore, we changed the section name from Daily News to Global News - grouped by continents:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/daily_news.html



Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:42
George Cole Paradise Found>(Paradise Found):
Merrill Lynch recently issued a report, Paradise Found: The Best of All Possible Economies.” This is the fundamental reason why stocks have gone to such heights and gold is in the doldrums. The overweening confidence and arrogance of capital today!

When this confidence and arrogance is replaced by a whiff of fear and uncertainty, gold will take off and stocks will plunge. The apparent victory of the Teamsters in the UPS strike may have bee the first small step in puncturing this arrogance, although the spin doctors are working hard to downplay its significance.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:41
nomercy Thailand- Bond defaults>(Thailand- Bond defaults):
Property developer Natural Park defaulted on repayment of
subordinated bonds totalling two billion baht because it has
cashflow problems, managing director Thosaphong Jaruthavee
said yesterday.
http://www.bangkokpost.net/today/2108_busi17.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:41
panda @the papers>(@the papers):
I haven't read a newspaper in a couple of weeks again, and today I picked up the WSJ. What do I see in the 'A' section? Story after story about the currency turmoil in the Asian areas. Along with, talk of the devaluations giving one country an export advantage over another. Competing devaluations anyone? Hmmmm, may I should get a job with them? Nah, they don't want people with a 'negative' outlook. :- ) )

Now the question will be, how many people will put the pieces together and figure that, perhaps, just perhaps, it may be time to move the market profits to safer harbors? Nah..........

After all, how long does it take those gubn'ment trade/economic/whatever figures to filter through? One month? Two months? Three months? Six months?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:38
nomercy Thailand bank collapse?>(Thailand bank collapse?):
Despite vehement denials by the government, long-running
rumours that five small banks are on the brink of collapse have
led two oil firms to take matters into their own hands.
http://www.bangkokpost.net/today/2108_busi09.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:37
Au99.9 @ Regional Currencies>(@ Regional Currencies):
nomercy, After reading the full article, there doesn't seem too much hope of us getting our US$ 1 Billion back. Matter of fact, we'd better lie low in case Uncle Sam comes around again with that bloody hat.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:32
MACHINE GUN KELLY SPREAD OUT>(SPREAD OUT):
Buy gold or be filled with lead. I'm getting ready to spray everybody. Can't keep my finger off the trigger. Now get your wad out and step up to the plate, before the lights go out.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:23
Au99.9 Mounties>(Mounties):
Them Mounties wants ejimacatin!Anywun cun spell CAPONE!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:22
nomercy Region's currencies in for fresh attacks?>(Region's currencies in for fresh attacks?):
Traders and analysts talk now of
what could be described as Stage
II -- in which sales of regional
currencies last week were
dominated by the region's
corporates fearful of further losses
in foreign currency exposures as
well as genuine investors fleeing
stock markets and other
locally-denominated assets.
http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/pages/fmony31.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:17
Mr. Linguistics Mr. Capon>(Mr. Capon):

Sir,

Just figured it out ! You must be from TED's neck of the woods !

You've just got to be Canadian also !

You said the e was silent last night

In Canada, you're right! They'd spell it as Capon eh


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:11
Au99.9 @ Conspiratory Theory>(@ Conspiratory Theory):
Rob, Some fantastic conspiracy theories come to mind. Then I think of the collective IQ of our polllies and......nah..too hard!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 10:06
Au99.9 DOW @ZZZZZZZZZZZ>(DOW @ZZZZZZZZZZZ):
Dow sluggish,down 30. About as exciting as tipping money into a hat.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 09:51
Rob herron@braenet.com.au>(herron@braenet.com.au):
Yes I'll bet Uncle Sam said do as I say or else. I would love to know what the threat was even our pollies aren't stupid enough to have sold our gold willingly.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 09:49
Roebear @Bombay>(@Bombay):
Hey mr Capoun, r u an Indian?
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1024.htm


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 09:45
Au99.9 @Op-Shop>(@Op-Shop):
How much dough did Uncle Sam actually drop into the hat when it was directing everyone else to bail out the Thai Baht. Here in Australia, we flogged the family jewels ( gold ) and chipped in US$1 Billion. Generous folks, we Aussies. Was Uncle Sam really saying.... don't do as I do, do as I say?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 09:14
nomercy US Debt- Rep. Arnold is planning a massive public-relations blitz >(US Debt- Rep. Arnold is planning a massive public-relations blitz ):
Note:Informing the 'masses' might not have the desired effects....
. . . On the stump, Mr. Neumann says he is troubled by the
increasing percentage of the federal debt held by foreigners. In
1994, foreign governments owned about 19 percent of the
U.S. debt. They now own about 34 percent.
. . . . He said that leaves foreign nations in a position to
blackmail the United States, as Prime Minister Ryutaro
Hashimoto demonstrated earlier this year when he threatened
to sell off Treasury bills if the United States did not cooperate
on the exchange rate. He spooked the markets, sending the
Dow Jones industrial average down 192 points.
http://www.washtimes.com/news/news2.html#link


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 09:09
Me, myself and I NOT Capon>(NOT Capon):
It's Al Capone you idiot!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:48
nomercy Arafat warns of renewed uprising >(Arafat warns of renewed uprising ):
Thursday, August 21, 1997

Defying calls to curb Islamic militants, Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat headed a conference of Palestinian factions
that included the Hamas and Islamic Jihad groups yesterday in a show of unity against against the policies of the Israeli
government. Addressing the gathering in Gaza, Mr. Arafat warned that the Palestinians were prepared if necessary to renew a
seven-year uprising against Israel. His tone and the presence of Islamic Jihad representatives reflected the depth of opposition
to Israeli policies.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:47
vronsky THE DINES LETTER - GOLD: YOU'VE GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!>(THE DINES LETTER - GOLD: YOU'VE GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!):
“Merrill Lynch was bearish on gold from $35 to $850 - turned bullish at all-time high of $850 in 1980!” As usual Dines provides well-written insights on Gold & Silver:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines818.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:43
Ted @pre-storm>(@pre-storm):
Donald: Will give Sean the joke on his arrival....thanx! Am going to take advantage of the sunny and calm weather and do some kayaking before the bad weather+Sean shows up...they go hand in hand!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:43
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
There's a good chance that I may have to get aboard the gold train if this really begins to gold itself above water for more than a few minutes!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:32
Stalder Bonds>(Bonds):
Student- Price, It did go even and now going back up again.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:24
Auric @Kitco>(@Kitco):

Mike Sheller--I will research this question and try to give a reasonable birth place. Mooney--el nino indeed means the boy, but El Nino refers to Christ Child. This was so named because in Latin America, this event usually appears during the Christmas season.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:17
Donald @Home>(@Home):
TED: An Irish joke for your friend, Sean:

A visitor from Northern Ireland was in Sydney seing the sights ( both of them ) and just happened upon a TV Newsman doing man in the street interviews. The newsman asked him where he was from and the answer was Belfast. The newsman said oh, it must be terrible living there with the violence and all The Irishman responded that it was not bad at all. It was the media who had exaggerated all the stories in their quest for sensationalism. The TV guy said, well, I glad to hear that things are not as bad as we have heard. By the way, what do you do for a living in Belfast? The Irishman responded, Tis' a tailgunner I am, on a bread truck


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:17
student BONDS>(BONDS):
Stalder: Do you mean price or yield?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:15
Stalder Looks Good>(Looks Good):
S&P 500 -225
NSDQ 100 -950
Bonds Up
Dollar Down
Gold UP


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:11
Mooney @Auric>(@Auric):
Auric, I thought that el nino just meant 'the boy'?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:11
Mike Sheller Alas, Auric!>(Alas, Auric!):
AURIC: You are a STERN taskmaster. I never did a 'scope for a weather pattern before! Your hypothetical birthday for El Nino intrigues me however, and is not without deep symbolism. If we are talking about the Christ Child ( which is actually born as the Winter Solstice in Capricorn ) the date you have given is, of course, the Spring Equinox - the arising, or resurrection, of the Sun, the Lamb of God, in Aries, as the light takes precedence over the balance of light and dark. Since you are following this, Auric, what say you as to time of day and location of origination of The Child? With the caveat that I would require such additional ( though supposed ) info, and that this approach ( astrological ) is highly speculative here, I'll see what such a 'scope might say.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:10
Speed @home>(@home):
Ted: slash, don't forget the slash.

A note on the y2k problem. Management won't/can't spend significant money on the problem, lest it affect the quarterly report. Myopic? Yes, but every money manager and analyst is a sprinter, not a distance runner. They only look at the next hundred meters, not the next couple of kilometers. Extreme myopia can cause bizarre results. Anybody remember Mr. Magoo?

See ya'll at the finish line.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:09
Ted @Tort>(@Tort):
Mornin Tort and good N....What kind of mix do ya put in that bread machine?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:07
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Ex-President Sarney attacks US-Argentina agreement

BRASÍLIA, 08/21/97 Senator José Sarney, Democratic Movement Party ( PMDB ) Amapa, made
a speech on the Senate floor harshly criticizing what he considers negotiations leading to a strategic
alliance between Argentina and the US. The former president said, The Brazilian government
cannot say anything, but I can denounce it. Sarney accused the United States government of trying
to weaken the Mercosur economic alliance. Carlos Menem, president of Argentina, is being used
as an instrument of this strategy, according to Sarney. His comments represented the most violent
reaction by a public figure to date on the negotiations between Argentina and the US. ( Gazeta
Mercantil ) ( SB )


Gustavo Franco to use exchange control mechanisms

BRASÍLIA, 08/21/97 - The new president of the Central Bank ( BC ) , Gustavo Franco, said
yesterday that he will continue to use exchange control mechanisms, and rejected the idea of a free
floating exchange rate, even after the fiscal debts are reduced. He said a free exchange rate would
generate a volatile market and would have a negative impact on the government's stabilization
program. Franco, who assumed the presidency yesterday, admitted there is a fiscal deficit in public
accounts, which has generated a deficit in current transactions. Interest rates will be lowered when
the government consolidates fiscal gains, he added. The BC will take measures to prevent attacks
on the currency. Franco said that a healthy currency is a question of ethics as well as economics.
( Gazeta Mercantil ) ( SB )



Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:05
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn):
It looks like a slight pulse on the metals this morning. Already my market prophecy has gone awry on paper though. Maybe today's and Friday's falling paper market will vindicate me. Morning Ted. Here's my short joke. Then, I'm off to check my bread at the breadmaker and go for my walk so that I will have burned enough calories to dare sample my work.

A piece of string goes to a bar, jumps up on the stool and asks for a
drink. The bartender says We don't serve to strings here. The string
wanders into the second bar and calls for the bartender to give him a
beer. The second bartender says Sorry, we don't serve strings here.
Well. The string was starving of thirst. He was getting bent out of
shape and frazzled. He went to a third bar and asked for a drink. The
bartender said You are a string, aren't you? The string said Nope,
I'm a frayed knot.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:04
Ted @Sean Whelan>(@Sean Whelan):
P.S. He leaves Tuesday morning......


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:03
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Government consults banks regarding the rise of the dollar on world markets

BRASÍLIA, 08/21/97 - The government of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, concerned
about the rise of the dollar on international markets, has consulted two of the most powerful
financial institutions in the world, Citibank and Goldman Sachs regarding their projections on the
dollar in the future. The two banks offered encouraging forecasts for Brazil. The dollar is expected
to fall in value, which will make the Real more competitive, without requiring the government to
make changes in its exchange policies. Paulo Leme, a Brazilian director of emerging markets for
Goldman Sachs, based in New York, was in Brasília two weeks ago to hold talks with top figures
in the government's economic ministries. ( Gazeta Mercantil ) ( SB )


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 08:02
Ted @one last try at my weather!!!>(@one last try at my weather!!!):
http://www.tor.ec.gc.ca/forecasts/forecast.cgi?city=Sydney&province=Nova+Scotia
Should be good weather for my Irish guest...eh....speak of luck of the Irish....


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:58
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Brazilian fortunes find their way to Switzerland

GENEVA, 08/21/97 - The only Swiss who became a banker in Brazil, Bénédict Hentsch, is the
heir to the most traditional private banking group in Geneva. He came to Brazil in 1972 to study
the so called economic miracle, and was active in structuring loan agreements until 1982, when
the country announced it would not pay its foreign debt. On returning to Switzerland, Hentsch
began to manage the fortunes of Brazilians and Latin Americans in his bank Darier & Hentsch.
Currently the bank manages assets worth $17 billion pertaining to 20,000 clients, according to the
magazine Bilanz. The banker does not confirm these figures and does not inform the number of
clients due to the sacrosanct bank secrecy practices in Switzerland. Approximately 35% of all the
world's private banking operations are currently performed by Swiss banks. ( Gazeta Mercantil )
( SB )


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:55
Ted @Donald>(@Donald):
Donald: that is one of my favorite sites and I access it several times a day...Should be a must for grain traders...eh...I find I can forcast our local weather better by looking at the satellite image than by listening to the idiot weatherman on the local TV station...


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:51
Ted @dam it>(@dam it):
Why?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:51
Donald @Home>(@Home):
TED: Thanks for the map photo. We are just at the very edge of the white blob. You have posted that before but I never looked at it. Glad I did, it's now bookmarked.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:50
Ted @our weather>(@our weather):
Speak of luck of the Irish ,here's our forcast!
http:www.tor.ec.gc.ca/forcasts.cgi?city=Sydney&province=Nova+Scotia


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:48
vronsky THE ASTROLOGICAL INVESTOR - August 18, 1997>(THE ASTROLOGICAL INVESTOR - August 18, 1997):
“If you want to see the future, perhaps you must look to the past.” Mike Sheller translates Fractual Theory into layman’s terms - drawing prophetic parellels to the 1985 Gold market:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/astro818.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:43
Tw @ El Nino>(@ El Nino):
What in H... does El Nino have to do with the markets/ this weather seems fine to me. What is El Nino anyway?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:42
Ted @Capebreton>(@Capebreton):
Re-,my weather: look at the farthest eastern point of Cape Breton ( nothern Island of Nova Scotia ) as we are in a mile of that point....
http://cnn.com/WEATHER/NAmerica/satellite_image.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:42
Donald @Home>(@Home):
TW: You are right about us being in the minority but history says we are not wrong. The truth will out; but it ain't easy. ( Oops, I forgot about the new era )


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:41
Auric El Nino>(El Nino):

We have often speculated on this forum as to what would be the seminal event that would trigger the bursting of the BUBBLE. I nominate El Nino as the trigger. El Nino refers to the Christ Child. Mike Sheller--Is it possible to do a profile of this problem child? Let's give it a birthday of March 21, 1997.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:33
Ted @Mike Sheller+ Donald>(@Mike Sheller+ Donald):
Mornin Mike+ Donald! It's a beautiful clear sunny day here but clouds and rain are supposed to move in tonight and stay around for several days,which is typical cause my Irish ( born in Dublin ) friend Sean Whelan is arriving at 5 PM today...Luck of the Irish...eh....Every year he shows up the weather turns south but that doesn't stop him from enjoying our great Canadian beer but our paddle to Scaterie Island looks in jeopardy.
If it's windy down yer way,God knows how bad it'll get here ...Batton down the hatches matey......


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:33
Tw @NoVa>(@NoVa):
Beautiful warm sunny mornin here in the No. Va. Washington, DC Suburbs. Sorry to here about all the bad weather up yonder. Is this mkt run up over and when will gold break out. It is tough being in the minority and being wrong. The 300 pt rally I think is to try to keep money flowing into the dollar and rev up the mutual fund money flows which were dissapating in the past week with mkt weakness.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:30
Dick Hertz to Al Capon>(to Al Capon):
You go, girl!!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:28
Donald @Home>(@Home):
BW: Did you catch my post last night about Japan and their worries about Y2K? The BOJ has issued instructions to all the banks. They are just getting started now it seems.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:25
Mike Sheller an associated im-press>(an associated im-press):
Word associations are very interesting. Take El Nino. En espanol, El Nino means the little boy. Meanwhile this weather phenom is a gargantuan geo-gorilla. Reminds me of a heavyweight from my youth...the hulking Nino Valdez. Will it only be Vronsky who understand's my musings here? Ted, is it raining up at the Cape too?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:25
Reverend Applewaite @Heavens Gate>(@Heavens Gate):

You should have hitched a ride with me on Hale-Bopp!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:20
Donald @Home>(@Home):
TED: Donald is here, but just barely, we are at the tail end of a storm, half the town is without power, still gusting to 30MPH and the yard is a mess with leaves and small branches. Low tide, but the surf is up! Yahoo seems to be down too. I don't know where they are located.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:18
Ter @Deflation>(@Deflation):
Any thoughts on Silver over the next few months. Where is a sight I can get the commitment of traders at the end of the week?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:18
general to BW on 2YK>(to BW on 2YK):
Thanks BW for your insightful comments. I would also add that
a food and spare goods storage program might be a good idea as well.
My only fear of converting paper to physical assets is getting
burglarized in the meantime. It's a shame you can't trust anyone or
anything now adays. I guess all you can do is your best and
keep focused on what is truly important: our seat in heaven.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:13
Ter @deflation>(@deflation):
Donald : USA / your local stores. I also said quality. Montgomery ward and Men's warehouse.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:13
George Cole markets>(markets):
December gold up 80 cents; Joberg gold index up 0.6%. Now that the Dow has charged back over 8000, optimism is soaring and most on Wall Street expect the bull to resume full force. Odds against this 10 to 1 from where I sit.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:10
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Good mornin ALL! Dec. Gold up .80 and EBN Gold up 1.15 ...Where's Donald


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:10
Donald @Home>(@Home):
TER: Brooks Bros. suits at 75. What country and currency is that?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:07
Ter @deflation>(@deflation):

The retail sector is in a funk, they are literally giving away clothing. Two wool men's suits Brooks quality/ 75 each. As mentioned yesterday dress socks .75 each. We are close to a ravaging recession or worse. I have never seen anything like this. Clerk told me all are buying with credit no cash. And the debt rises or the beat goes on. 1929 here we go again.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 07:04
vronsky COLE’S MARKET INSIGHTS >(COLE’S MARKET INSIGHTS ):
Internet’s Prophetic Resident Economist, George S. Cole, shares insightful & incisive views on all markets. He’s bullish GOLD & bearish common-stocks - Sees severe bear market in equities:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/cole817.html



Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 06:51
bb fisher all>(all):
BW:

could not agree more with your assesment. oh, onthing you diplomatically neglected to mention for all of us going thruough this thing, which will be all of us indeed.

location, location, location!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 06:16
bw Y2K:>(Y2K:):
I have spent the last few weeks on the net looking hard at the y2k problem. These findings may be overstated, but I do not think so. Many of you are professional programmers, take a hard look at y2k, use your lifetime of experience in under scopped projects and extrapolate it worldwide and tell me I am wrong. Please!

o The irs has just had a new chief appointed. He knows nothing about taxes. He is a computer systems professional. The irs will not be ready.

o Al Gore will not become president/dog catcher, he is finished as a public figure. His and Clintons lack of leadership on y2k will be seen as totally damning.

o The federal gov has budgeted 2.8 billion for y2k. Their costs will run many times this figure.

o The y2k problem is primarily a management problem, there is tons to technical work to do but management is the key. There has been little national leadership. Most corporations have not begun their efforts YET. In short the y2k problem is NOT being managed.

o We as the world have waited too long to gear up for the massive effort required. There are not enough resources worldwide to meet the deadlines which have already started occurring. We are missing those deadlines every day currently but they are not critical so no one is paying attention. The firm Data Dimensions seems to have a good handle on solving its clients y2k problems. If you read between the lines of their excellent manual and extrapolate across tens of thousands of firms you get a good idea of what may be involved worldwide.

o We will not make complete readiness by 2000, many firms will go out of bussiness. The year 2000 effort will stretch into 2004 and beyond as the less critical systems which have been triagged are given attention.

o Mankind will mobilize to fight this war, the war against TIME. There are not enough trained workers to staff the effort. Professionals of varying deciplines will be quickly cross trained for the cause. Bright computer savy students will be given leave from school to fight this war. Their parents should see they are paid at least 40-50/hour for their efforts.

o Laws will be passed to capitalize the costs, even so profits may suffer badly. Intrest rates may come under heavy pressure as vast amounts are borrowed to pay the costs.

o Our financial bubble should it survive until then ( doubtful ) will not make it past 1999.

o As the scope and utter seriousness of the burgeoning worldwide effort becomes apparent to the masses there may be runs on financial institutions worldwide. Emergency laws may be invoked prohibiting the mass withdrawal of funds.

o The time to make your personal preparations is now.

o In my opinion all of the above is what the cartel driving gold down has seen. This is why you should continue with them and buy as the price of gold is driven lower. Buy and take delivery. Safety deposit boxes will be seized.

o This is what after ninty years of deception and lies may remonitize gold.

o And lastly in my opinion $2000.00 gold in the year 2000 is a lock. 2000 in 2000 ( probably 1999 or sooner ) .


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 05:26
Auric AWAY!!>(AWAY!!):

er, Up to the minute CNN El Nino ( take two ) -- http://www.cnn.com/WEATHER/9708/20/el.nino/


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 05:24
s'bum @cut 'n paste>(@cut 'n paste):
Thanks Strad-- works well. . http://iri.ucsd.edu/hot_nino/news/experts_elnino.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 05:09
Auric @home>(@home):

Up to the minute CNN news item dated 8-20-97 http://www.cnn.com/WEATHER/970820/el.nino/ Note-In the '82-'83 El Nino, world wide loss estimated at 25 billion dollars. We are MUCH more vulnerable now. More people and property along the coasts, higher real estate valuation in '97 vs.'82-'83, which will affect INSURANCE companies, etc. Consider the vulnerability of the stock market in '97 vs. stock market in '82-'83. Asia is more vulnerable in 1997 than it was in '82-'83. The point is that the figure for the El Nino of 1997 will be MUCH higher.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 04:32
Auric @Food For Thought>(@Food For Thought):

Here is a color chart of El Nino strength. The El Nino of 1997 is about 5 months old now. Note that this one is bigger than the '82-'83 El Nino at the same age. The '82-'83 was the strongest one of the last 100 years. http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ENSO/enso.different.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 04:00
Strad Master Off to the storm drain!!!>(Off to the storm drain!!!):
AURIC: Yup! Now it worked. Thanks.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 03:59
Auric Major El Typo>(Major El Typo):

Strad-no problemo HERE is that article from 6-22-97


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 03:54
Strad Master Sorry!>(Sorry!):
AURIC: Your most recent link doesn't work. Don't worry. It's late! ( BTW, when I want to post a link, I highlight it at the top of the page when I have it up, then click on the copy button and then paste it in later when I need to. Saves a lot of time and trouble. ) Thanks for the try.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 03:53
Auric Major El Typo>(Major El Typo):

Strad-no problemo HERE is that article from 6-22-97 http://iri.ucsd.edu/hot_nino/news/experts_elnino.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 03:51
Auric Major El Typo>(Major El Typo):

Strad-no problemo HERE is that article from 6-22-97


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 03:49
Strad Master Drowning in El Niño!>(Drowning in El Niño!):
AURIC: Thanks so much for the sites. All that info is a quite a bit more than I had bargained for, but it will be interesting meandering through all the links. Thanks again. All the best!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 03:46
Auric Current West Coast weather predicted two months ago>(Current West Coast weather predicted two months ago):

Here is a fascinating news item from 6-22-97. The El Nino of 1997 began this March. A lot of prediction models are saying this will be a major El Nino. This article describes the effects of the last major El Nino in 1982. http://iri.ucsd.edu/hot_nino/news/experts-elnino.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 03:09
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Time to go watch the movie playing on the backside of my eyelids. BBL.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 03:06
Auric @ El Typos >(@ El Typos ):

Strad and other fellow El Nino freaks. Here is a very user friendly page that will easily guide you to graphs, current news, historical data, satellite photos, CHARTS, etc. I recommend you start HERE. http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/enso/


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 02:55
leaner goldbug.1stbank>(goldbug.1stbank):
Lets get off the pot and start the 1st North American National Goldbug Bank at least when the chit hits the fan all the proceeds from the calulated and well thought out demise of the paper market won't need to worry where all the wealth will be heading!! 1 share 1 Goldbug..Paper pushers not allowed!! The CB's will meet the Goldbugs in short order and will revere our prowess!! Viva la Goldbugs, common sense will prevail!!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 02:52
I give up! @>(@):

try again http://covis2.atmos.uiuc.edu/guide/El-Nino/links.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 02:48
Auric another correction>(another correction):

Re my previous post. The second link should be
http://covis2.atmos.uiuc.edu/guide/El-Nino/links.htm
l


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 02:48
Auric another corrcion>(another corrcion):

Re my previous post. The second link should be http://covis2.atmos.uiuc.edu/guide/El-Nino/links.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 02:44
Eldorado @The scene>(@The scene):
RJ -- Thanks, and thanks. We'll leave surely with CAPON.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 02:38
Auric El Nino>(El Nino):

Strad-- Here are two good places for El Nino info. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/el-nino/home.html and http://covis2.atmos.uiuc.edu/El-Nino/links.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 02:35
Strad Master With an itty bitty knife!>(With an itty bitty knife!):
ELDORADO: Personally, I'm curious as to how they do it to a chicken. How can they even find the things? Perhaps Mr. Capon remembers how they managed to find his!? Anyway - glad you got a good laugh.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 02:31
RJ ...Eldo...>(...Eldo...):

They will Shirley buy their gold back, at $280. I won’t call you surely.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 02:27
RJ ...Stuff...>(...Stuff...):
Reify @ 05:07
I view personal purchases of precious metals differently than I would view a trading strategy. The reason I bought gold, silver, and platinum recently, is that they are a good buy. They can and may go lower, if they do, I’ll probably buy some more. When makings physical purchases, the object is to usually buy and hold, a longer term outlook. There………. You see? Everyone here thought I couldn’t see past next week. I consider PM purchases to be a necessary evil, hardly a ride on the whirlwind.

Regarding small cap stocks, I will defer. Not really my forte, mate.



Georg Cole -
I think you are right about the publicity campaign. Whether this is purely propaganda, or if it contains the seeds of a fundamental shift away from gold? I am hearing veteran gold traders ask these same questions. Its still too early to tell.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 02:22
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Strad -- I must have come from a deprived family. I had no idea castrated chickens sold at a premium. H__L, I didn't know they did such things to chickens! But, it certainly matches up well with the castrated chicken poster ( Or ImPoster! ) ! I'm afraid I'm going to be 'chuckling' over this for quite some time! Thanks for the Grand laugh!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 02:18
Strad Master El Niño - on its way!>(El Niño - on its way!):
ALL: Does anyone have any historical data correlating the past El Niño weather patterns with agricultural commodity prices? We had a big article in today's LA Times all about how everyone is gearing up for a huge weather crisis here - lots of rain, etc. Seems that would be extremely useful information to have in order to be able to prepare in advance for successful commodity trading. Thanks.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 02:17
Auric Oops>(Oops):

HERE is y2k problem-- http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/index.cfm


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 02:14
Auric @I'm OK, year 2 k>(@I'm OK, year 2 k):

Someone had asked for the Year 2000 Bug info. Here is a good place to start. Can even get a free e mail report on the scope of the problem, plus a good set of links, and a discussion forum. http://www.garynorth.com/yrk/index.cfm


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 02:11
Strad Master Colonel Sanders @ Chicken Whacker. com>(Colonel Sanders @ Chicken Whacker. com):
ELDORADO: Re my 00.11. It's nothing esoteric. Upscale markets sell CAPON at a big premium 'cause it is more exotic. Basically it tastes like a plain ol' chicken, which, if you think about it, is somewhat analagous to tonight's crackpot poster: A sexless chicken masquerading like a gourmet specialty! RJ: thanks for the compliment.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 02:02
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- Perhaps we'll also see the day when they sell two thirds of their bonds to buy gold! NAH! Too much 'face' lost in doing that! They'll simply sleep in the bed they made. And sleep, and sleep....


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 01:52
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
The consensus in stocks seems to be an imminent move down, perhaps tomorrow, and one to commence at the end of the month or just into Sept. Anyone here got anything more definitive? Perhaps it is a wait and see. Maybe they'll basically go sideways for a couple days before they continue a move up. watch the support and resistance areas. If they 'rest' just above the previous high area, odds are likely they'll go up. If they can't quite make it there, then consider it being done. But, let the market tell you what to do. There is NO substitute! Whatever happens will be 'meaningful'!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 01:49
RJ Strad Master @ 00:11>(Strad Master @ 00:11):

Cool………………



Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 01:44
RJ ...Donald @ 21:01...>(...Donald @ 21:01...):
Re: Sell stocks, buy bonds.

I read the David Henry's USA Today article from which I quote, Given the turmoil among stocks of the best companies in the land, maybe it is time to invest in something boring. Like U.S. Treasury notes and bonds.

Hmmmmm…. Looks like Australia is ahead of the curve, they just sold two thirds of their gold to buy US Bonds.

Interesting concept.

Good article, thanks.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 01:33
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Robert McKinnon -- Thanks for your views! I'm sure that all will put them in the 'balance tray'. Much appreciated!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 01:24
CAPON TO ALL>(TO ALL):
MY SAK JUST GOT WHACKED. I WENT HOME TO ROOST.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 01:22
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
CAPON, the castrated chicken -- Whatever blows thy skirt up, dearie.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 01:19
Robert McKinnon rmckinnon@adgrafix.com>(rmckinnon@adgrafix.com):
For those that have asked, yes, I am an experienced Technical Analyst. I am also President of an Investment Club.

As for my Head & Shoulders analysis, so far the DOW has followed my chart
precisely. It is now forming the minor Right Shoulder I mentioned, which I believe will peak at around 8075. If it goes above 8110 I will believe that the Head & Shoulders pattern has been broken, and will perhaps turn Bullish again. For now, any trading I do will be based on my belief in my chart, and remain bearish on the market and bullish on gold.

Mind you, I am not predicting a crash. Just a reasonably predictable Head & Shoulders downtrend. Virtually every move the market has made upward on the left side of the Head will be made again in reverse on the way down. Sometime in mid 1999 we may get a new true Bull market again.

I'll leave it at that.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 01:17
CAPON ELDO, YOUR NOT WORTHY... CRONE>(ELDO, YOUR NOT WORTHY... CRONE):
Well start calling you Sleeze Ball. This is you, all sleeze.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 01:17
CC goldbug@ormetal.com>(goldbug@ormetal.com):
DJ: Doesn't it make sense to expect that we will get this $30 back when the short positions are unwound? .........Yes makes sense. However all depends how the other market participant react. Newmont just closed more than 1M of forward sales.. When the bottom is reached and the trend is reverse, many other producers might do same, prompting dealers to buy back the gold they sold in the first place. Funds are probably shorts since Feb 1996 as they are more long term players and were less active in the recent move by the Comex player. When a definitive bottom is in place, all these will be on the long side... All these shorts will have to fight with Japan, CHina and India...for the stuff... I suspect a much more dramatic rally than you mention... the question is When?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 01:16
Eldorado the scene>(the scene):
Strad -- Your 00:11 was marvelous! How in H___ did you come up with that so fast? How did you even THINK to even look? Marvelous!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 01:11
Screaming Jay Hawkins @ the voodoo meet>(@ the voodoo meet):
So you guys want to get a bit strident, do you? Well why didnt you
call me?


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 01:09
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
CAPON, the castrated Chicken -- WASAMATTER! Can't stand the heat? Don't have any self esteem? I'm not a bit surprised! Go buy some paper, stuff your mattress, snort a little stuff, and get some sleep. Perhaps you'll wake up in a better mood. Oh, and get a different handle!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 01:07
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
6pak: Interesting story on pepper. How little we think about such mundane, everday items. ... Until. ...... As a personal aside, I do believe the Vietnamese black pepper has the greatest flavor. On travels to that region, I generally buy a half kilo. Give some away and keep the rest in the freezer....... a half kilo goes a long way. They also have a white pepper but its merits are lost on me. Like that extra spicey black pepper much better.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 01:06
CAPON TO: DIPWAD STRAD MASTER FOOL>(TO: DIPWAD STRAD MASTER FOOL):
Your not very bright are ya Strad Dipwad. Take a walk on the nearest expressway.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:59
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
6pak -- That Pepper article was interesting! Who'd have thought? I suppose the only futures market in that is in hoarding it. Would that be right? It's amazing how fast 'things' can double, then triple in price, just for the lack of a few tons!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:58
CAPON TO:ELDO IN THE DUMPSTER>(TO:ELDO IN THE DUMPSTER):
Well will just have to have you made. Here's 10 holes. Whats wrong Eldo can't move. It's only 10 holes. Ya don't look well. Now you can hang out with the maggots. You always were a worm !


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:52
Strad Master Strad WAD...COOL!>(Strad WAD...COOL!):
AL CAPON: My! My! Are WE touchy tonight!? I was merely providing you with some useful information. Go check it out for yourself, or ask your pal Bugsy Siegel. Anyway, given the source, I'll take your comment to me as a great compliment.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:48
Lan Man @Closing Bell by InfoBeat>(@Closing Bell by InfoBeat):
COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended mixed again
Wednesday, with gold and silver lower, as the U.S. dollar
recovered further, but platinum group metals ( PGMs ) ended higher
for the first time since August 8.

World gold demand is still quite strong, according to the World
Gold Council's survey, but the fall in the U.S. trade deficit in
the June data today is bearish for gold because it is allowing the
U.S. dollar to rise again, Refco New York economist Jim Steel
said.

The World Gold Council said Wednesday that world gold demand rose
11 percent to a record 723 tons in the second quarter 1997, but
the U.S. Commerce Department reported the U.S. trade deficit fell
14.5 pct in June to $8.16 billion, lower than the $10.6 billion
expected, pushing up the dollar.

Meanwhile, COMEX silver open interest fell 1,611 lots Tuesday to
88,932 contracts, the lowest level since June 27, suggesting much
of silver's strength relative to gold recently has been
shortcovering, though silver's fundamentals are probably better
than gold's, analysts said.

We anticipate a sideways trading band ( basis COMEX September
silver ) from $4.00 to $4.60, with good support at the lower band
reflecting continued good demand from the U.S., Japan and India,
as well as prospects for a continuation of the long term shortfall
between world production and consumption of silver, Smith Barney
analyst Paul Fine said in a report.

( Reuters 04:49 PM ET 08/20/97 ) For the full text story, see
http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=4541074-2ff


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:47
CAPON TO:WJC>(TO:WJC):
Get a life and move on. Your not Clinton. Get a life fool !


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:45
Eldorado @The scene>(@The scene):
AL -- Well golly! I just really can't join another cartel. Some REALLY big boys might get the wrong opinion of that! But I really have to thank you for the offer. Now, if you might consider joining another cartel.... I would, however, have to get a different handle for you. This castrated chicken thing, well, it just doesn't fly! I'm sure you agree.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:45
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Market Timer Of The Year
After looking over my market indicators this weekend,
four of which were red and the other two were yellow
but plunging like Niagra Falls. I decided to issue an
alert to close family members and a few friends.
Needless to say, from the instant the E-mail went out
the Market rose 100+ points per day. The Silver lining
in this, now that my family and friends no longer speak to me,
is that I will have more time for my virtual friends. As soon
as I can figure out an appropriate alias of course.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:42
William Jefferson Clinton @Capon>(@Capon):
Mr. Capon: What in the world is your problem ( problems ) Even in our great country we have imbeciles!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:39
6pak El Nino @ Scarce pepper supply>(El Nino @ Scarce pepper supply):
India - Indonesia - Malaysia - Vietnam - Brazil
You usually make up a deficit in pepper from stock

It's better than a bank, pepper keeps well, Bugs don't eat it : ) : ) : )
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Pepper-Prices.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:32
AL CAPON SAY HELLO TO MY LITTLE FRIEND>(SAY HELLO TO MY LITTLE FRIEND):
WJC. ya gutless goofball.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:29
GVC @more stupid thoughts>(@more stupid thoughts):
Well, I was wrong about a strong reversal today in stocks, but a least we got a small one in the xau. I suspect that if the next wave down is about to commence, then it should be the strongest one seen yet this year so far. Once stocks begin to fall again, those that jumped on board recently expecting a run up to the SP 1000 level and those who have just hung in there expecting this kind of sharp rebound, will realize or at least begin to think that mabey market phsycology has changed or is in the process of changing, hence they will start dumping more aggressively, most probably causing a mini panic, imho. The question will be whether or not gold and gold stocks initially begin to tank also before rebounding higher, or take off northward in a direct opposite correlation to the general stock market. Personally, I think they immediately begin a rally or at the very least pretend to tank then make a sharp intraday reversal to catch everyone by surprise.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:29
Eldorado @The scene>(@The scene):
Earl -- Some good scenario there; diminishing returns and a rush for the door. Kind of like the paper! Gee, what if it ALL happens at the same time!!! Now THAT's a scenario! A very likely one at that, IMHO. Paper turns to ashes and gold gets capitalized to be GOLD!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:29
Al Coupon @Capon>(@Capon):
WIMP!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:28
AL CAPON STRAD MASTER>(STRAD MASTER):
Blow it out your rear Strad Wad, before ya see some more stars.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:26
William Jefferson Clinton @Strad Master>(@Strad Master):
Strad Master: Hillary is not only a brilliant lawyer but she is also somewhat of an expert on cattle futures too.She is but another example that in our great country,anything is possible if you apply yourself and do your homework. She is currently charting gold and her charts see gold slipping down to the 285 area by late October. I am so PROUD of her!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:21
AL CAPON ELDO, YOUR GONNA BE MADE>(ELDO, YOUR GONNA BE MADE):
Your in the cartel now, your moving up. Any other mobsters want to join our happy family.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:18
Strad Master Only the best!>(Only the best!):
WILLIAM JEFFERSON CLINTON: While you're dispensing market advice, could you give us all a little insight into how your dear wife accomplished her famous cattle futures trade? I ( and I'm sure many others here ) could benefit greatly from knowing what technical indicators she followed before she placed that trade. As you know, her skill as a futures trader is legendary. Could you kindly ask her to share a few tips with us? Much obliged.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:15
AL CAPON STAND ASIDE>(STAND ASIDE):
I'm afraid for you all. Ya La roachas. Say hello to the bad guy.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:12
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Al Capon -- Patience! Like the dude who slept for twenty years, it'll awake. Just a little more time. Things are beginning to unwind. Things are becoming more unsettled. There is more uncertainty and fear in the air. Countries around the world not liking their dollar caused inflations/devaluations. Good odds exist for a top being in place, or soon to be in place in the stox. I expect interesting volatility in the metals occurring soon. Some of it to the downside to shake out some longs. Be aware and beware!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:11
Strad Master Information and correction>(Information and correction):
AL CAPON: According to Webster's Dictonary a CAPON is a castrated male chicken. By the way, you also spelled Schmuck wrong.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:10
William Jefferson Clinton @Puetz>(@Puetz):
Puetz: One of these days you may make a correct call but for the time being stocks in the greatest country on earth are the place to be and will be for the next 15 years too. You have missed the entire bull market but it is not too late to join the party! Sell ALL your gold holdings TOMORROW!


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:08
6pak Eldorado >(Eldorado ):
OK : ) : ) : ) Time will tell.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:06
AL YOU KNOW AL WHO>(YOU KNOW AL WHO):
Move it boys ! The contracts are out.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:04
paths paths@ibm.net>(paths@ibm.net):
A tight physical supply shortage may exist in the short term, given the strong physical offtake of gold seen in recent months in Asia, India and the Middle East, the report said. Dealers in physical gold said demand from these areas was probably higher because of low prices brought on by
the Australian central bank sales. http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/20/z0009_38.html


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:03
DJ Shorts>(Shorts):
Earl - Thanks. If I keep at it another 20-30 years, I might start to understand this market. Then again, maybe not. G'night all.


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:03
AL CAPON WJC, YOUR A BIGGER SMUCK THAN I THOUGHT>(WJC, YOUR A BIGGER SMUCK THAN I THOUGHT):
Get lost and stay there !


Date: Thu Aug 21 1997 00:00
AL CAPON NO MORE STOCK TALK>(NO MORE STOCK TALK):
I want to know what you people are going to do with Gold !


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