- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 02:40
alone talk to me>(talk to me):
- Where did everybody go? Talk to me, say something Henry
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 02:28
Goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters):
- Eldorado, I hate to rub your nose in your work as I contend, but the scenerio your eluding to is right up my alley. Your commentary I believe makes good sense. Keep em coming.
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 02:18
Bernatz de Ventadorm Le Fou@peeking bottoms>(Le Fou@peeking bottoms):
- For all zoze who try to beat up mah fren RJ. Stop
Even zo ah don lak heez position short zee gold/long
zee silvair, he was right by dam. Even zo ah tell heem
he heetch up zee skairts too much. He eez good as he
follow zee market, he dont try to ow you say
anticipate zee market - and peek zee bottom lak many of
All of us lak zee gold, but we must admit no matter
how beautiful she eez ( and she eez ) she goes down by gar.
Ah believe zee gold she well go up, but first she
must START to go up and maybee break say a 30 day
moveeng averAGE. Even zee poor silvair she looks lak she
has done zis.
In zee defense of RJ, he has always say gold go down.
One day he will say eet well go up but he weel not
peek zee bottom -
Alors, Zee only botTOM zat rj weel be peeking at weel
be when he leeft zee skairts - am ah wrong , mah fren
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 02:01
RJ That's it, I swear off Kitco for the weekend>(That's it, I swear off Kitco for the weekend):
- Vieserre: @12:12
You set out to defend balance, and in the process, demonstrated the same. At the risk of parroting another, your remarks were those of a statesman.
Miro @ our baselines are different.
Time frames are indeed an issue. Long term investors, those who buy, hold, and dollar cost average are a different breed entirely from those who trade. I would define anyone who calls themselves a trader as short term. I love markets that give me the opportunity to day trade, but most of my trades are for several weeks to a few months. For those that buy and hold, today’s gold price offers an opportunity to pick up some more at a great price. I believe there will be plenty of opportunity to buy plenty more at a lower price, this is dollar cost averaging.
Donald @ Central Bank selling is less likely today
This is true unless they race to be the next to sell at these prices before gold dips substantially lower. Make no mistake there is envy and avarice from those that have not yet sold, towards those that have.
Mike Sheller @ 22:32
Bravo. You have consistently offered sound opinions and seem to have always chosen the high road. You are also one of the truly valued humorists here. Search as I did, read it three times, I could find nothing so obviously embarrassing as goulash. Instead I found ,vituperation. Had to look that one up. You are definitely on the short list of contributors who are always a must read.
Unperiphrastic-bombastiloquent-circumlocution Boasty Boy
Congratulations on the PL bucks. Glad you held some as this ride is surely not over. Sorry Shirley. I hold some more expensive silver also, and worry it will suffer under the weight of gold. Taking your losses on gold was a wise move, sure gives a sense of freedom doesn’t it? Your success, like most, stems from your homework, and your ability to see these markets for what they are. You too are on the short list. You have friends who are limeys? Remember, vino dude, moderation, in all, moderation.
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 01:56
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- gunrunner -- If the only people to post here were to be only absolute gurus on the metals, we would all be lurkers on an empty page! Don't be intimidated! Keep on posting as you have been! And this extends to all the 'lurkers' out there! I'm sure Bart would agree!
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 01:48
teenytrader @robert minor>(@robert minor):
- Read it while you can: Robert Minor's recent trade recommendation:
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 01:47
- gunrunner, I've got to get up for a Police Practical Combat match this morning, I shoot High Master, now do you still want to leave? We never got a chance to talk firearms! All: more Y2K and this is scary
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 01:45
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- GVC -- I'll only say that I'm ready and willing for any kind of move it decides to take! Sunday night/Monday might be interesting. Tuesday 'should' provide a turn. Whether it be up or down, build a bigger pile of chips for the BIG one! Will it be soon or will it be later? Will we see 300, 275, 180? Who really knows? A lot of messes can get totally out of hand at any time. But remember, we are all one big happy family, and it won't happen 'lightly'! That is why I've said in the past and maintain today that when the metals move, it'll quite likely mean it, and we'll never again see these low 'prices' that may or may not become lower! But I do see a pattern that suggests a possible near term 310 or so on the Dec contract. By that, I simply mean it SUGGESTs a posibility. No engraved stones here, and I have to see it happening for a confirmation!
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 01:36
Jack Swiss gold backing>(Swiss gold backing):
RJ; thought that the decrease in SF gold backing was still subject to referendum?
If wrong about this; my inclination leads me to believe that: the Swiss are in mortal fear that EU scared europeans will send huge sums of their DM's, French Francs, Lira and etc. into SF's. Without the former 40% gold backing, the Swiss Economy may not be flooded with unwanted currencies
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 01:24
Rhyme @Turning Point>(@Turning Point):
- GVC re your last posting.
The uptrend in the stock market and the downtrend in the gold market are
both so entrenched that a breaking of both is almost unthinkable by most market participants. I'd say from various measures ,including the caution shown by this group, the bears in the stock market and the bulls
in the gold market,that we are as close to a turn, pychologically, as one can get.
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 01:21
George Cole email@example.com>(firstname.lastname@example.org):
- Aurophile and Vieserre; Thanks for the info re: the lag between the 1992-93 bottoms in gold and gold stocks! Similar pattern seems to be developing now.
RJ; My attack on arrogant and boastful behavior was a general statement and not aimed at you or anyone else in particular. Now that Hepcat is gone, Kitco has reverted to its old civilized self. Although you and I often disagree, this forum would be a much less interesting and informative place without your contributions. But you do seem to have rubbed Bob the wrong way.
Mike Sheller; I recall you did predict this stock and bond rally, and I extend my heartfelt congratulations. I am no expert on astrology but have noticed that astrologers like other gurus have hot and cold streaks. They often disagree.over the correct interpretation of celestial events. Arch Crawford after running hot for awhile seems to have hit a slump.
Ted: The stock market indeed has further to run, but if you think this mania will last much longer, think again.
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 01:13
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- gunrunner -- What do you mean your last posting here? You find some better place to 'cruise' or was it too addictive here?
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 01:10
Rhyme @ home>(@ home):
- We'll all gain from different points of view so I'll definitely
agree with gunrunner's last comment and hope that RJ keeps posting.
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 01:07
GVC @august a month to remember?>(@august a month to remember?):
- There are more bearish posts on this forum than in anytime I can remember, although I've only been lurking here since last November. We shall see if that is a contrarion signal or not. Even most of the bulls here are expecting some weakness in the coming days and weeks. The last thing anyone expects is a violent move to the upside. Mabey that's why it might just happen after a little scare to the downside to make bulls and bears alike think the trend is still down. I happen to be in the aurophile camp in thinking gold has bottomed and stocks have topped. Now that the capital gains tax cut has been passed , it won't take much bad news to cause some serious selling. There are MANY out there just looking for the slightest excuse to sell.
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 01:01
- Since this might be my last post -
Vieserre: Bravo all posts - I appreciate your balance and inputs.
EB - Maslow’s dogs, Pavlov’s hierarchy…Um, vice versa…?… Whatever… psychology ain’t my expertise either. Maybe I’m on the wrong chat group…. Hopefully I will not need glasses for a couple of years, but when I do… You the Man! Parrotheads gotta stick together…. ( and if you ever need a gun….. )
George Cole, Earl - I appreciate your presence at Kitco and HOPE you’re right ( and I’m there with you ) in the long run…
Eldorado, D.A., - Thanks!
Poorman - I feel your pain…
Ted - Been there, done that, got the T-shirt. Glub-glubbing doth suck and does make one see the big picture a little more clearly now ( Johnny Nash )
Panda - I have little ego left, only the desire to learn and hopefully profit from it.
Niner - Are you my not-so-evil-twin?
Mike Sheller - WOW!
ALL - I realize I am out of my element here at Kitco ( being only an optimist and not being a metals/financial/economic expert ) , but I think I represent good percentage of the lurkers. I seek only the knowledge to make better investment decisions…… ( and, I must admit, the entertainment value of those who occasionally flippantly contribute. ) But if I bore anyone by my postings, or am misinterpreted as a whiner, etc., I’ll shut up and lurk, too. As I’ve said before, thanks to ALL who take the time ( and emotional fortitude ) to contribute here.
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 00:47
AE This is an interesting site>(This is an interesting site):
- RJ - I have been reading this site for a couple of weeks now. I find the
banter quite entertaining and informative. I haven't read many of your posts, until today, but I can tell you are a person who has something of value to offer to others. I can also tell you are feeling unappreciated because some of the responses you are getting. I can only say that there
probably many others like myself who appreciate your efforts here and would miss out on your experience if you decided not to post.
We all must engage our filters when visting sites like these, both from the content perspective and the personal perspective.
I hope you stay on the site!
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 00:39
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- Jack -- At least it doesn't yet sound quite like Waco yet!
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 00:34
- Mike Sheller ( 22:32 ) : Amen. ( Respectful silence )
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 00:34
Jack I hate giving assignments, but!!>(I hate giving assignments, but!!):
Calling all KITCO GURU'S, but only when you have the time and inclination. Please read, VIESERRE'S fine take on the LBMA; and -if so inclined- offer your views on this huge gold trader.
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 00:29
RJ From day one, gold south>(From day one, gold south):
- I have yet to utter a bullish word for gold since I began posting here. Not one. I have been very bullish on PA / PL and occasionally on silver, but I’ve been a one note singer on gold. The closest thing you would find to a bullish statement is the couple times I covered my shorts and looked for a small rally to sell it back into the dirt from whence it came. I have been remarkably consistent in my views.
I have said that I love gold, as all here do, and in the future I will be a gold bull. Perhaps you took that for a bullish statement.
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 00:23
- Donald ( 22:02 ) : You wrote: If the price increases, as many of us hope, then Central Bank selling becomes more likely at those higher prices.
It is a point well made. At the same time, it presupposes that wolves are not howling about the counting house ( Thx Roebear ) door. All in response to good and sufficient reasons to support the higher price for gold. In which case, we will all bear witness to a sudden and willful paradigm shift in the wonderful wacky world of central banking. ...... All in the realm of speculative supposition. :- )
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 00:22
6pak We Have Been Had @ Canadians'>(We Have Been Had @ Canadians'):
- Vronsky @ 20:49 We Have Been Had BY: J.N. Tlaga. No mention of the
Canadian dollar eh! Consider the state of affairs, we in Canada have had
to live ( regarding USofA ) with, many more years then 1971.
Government and Business in Canada: By Hugh G.J. Aitken
From: The Development of Canadian Capitalism By: Douglas McCalla
Anyone attempting to interpret Canadian experience to a predominantly
American audience faces problems. These arise not only from prevailing
ignorance in the United States of even the most salient features of
Canadian history - an ignorance which it is now conventional to deplore
but which grows no less abysmal as the years go by - but also because
anyone reared on a diet of American history approaches Canadian material
with a preconditioned palate. The categories with which he approaches the
data are already set. Implicitly or explicitly, the United States is
taken as norm.
This in itself would be limiting enough. What aggravates the situation is
that the categories taken over from United States history are usually
highly conventional and often inconsistent with the findings of recent
research. Reference, of course, to that traditional view of United States
history which depicts it as the history of a laissez-faire, free-
enterprise economy, in which the role of government, at least until the
New Deal, was essentially passive and in which government as a factor in
the process of economic development was at best neutral.
We have at least, in writing of our own country, learned caution. But
when we compare our own history with the history of other countries - or
with the predicaments of backward nations today --caution goes out the
window. Our implicit standard of comparison is the free enterprise model,
assumed to represent without too gross error what happened here.
OF COURSE, IT DID NOT HAPPEN HERE. The work of louis Hartz, the Handlins,
and a host of others has made that clear.
No one familiar with Canadian politics in the 1960's can question that
defense against the economic and political dominance of the United States
is today among the overriding concerns of the Canadian federal government
no matter which of the two major parties is in power.
Resistance to the threat of absorption by the United States, thrust on
the government a role approximating to strategic economic planning. The
tactics of Canadian economic development have been a matter of private
business. To find a strategy and see that it is implemented has been the
responsibility of government.
Sooooo, in 1997, Canada has been taken over by the business forces of
the USofA, the USofA citizens' at the Kitco site, warn Canadians each and
every day, of the control of the USofA government, by vested interests,
and those same interests, are in fact gaining control, and have been,
for more then the 26 years stated at the Gold-Eagle site. We Have Been
Consider, Canada as a branch plant economy, multinational corporation, as
an institution that exercises power over social and political development
rather than, or in addition to, its role as a mobilizer of resources for
Decision making within multinational firms, where it is discussed at all,
is portrayed in straightforward terms. Power flows from the top down,
from head office to branch or subsidiary, augmented by centralized
controls over financial resources and communications networks.
Example: The executives of Canadian and other foreign operations of
American companies are managers, **not entrepreneurs**. They do not make
the *guiding* decisions concerning the *global* goals of the enterprise
or the allocation of *money*; they *operate* within the guidelines set
down by the general office.
Canada, is not the only country, that must use caution, dealing with
the multinationals, and International Bankers. Canada, is now accepted
as having no form of money other then the USofA dollars' second cousin.
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 00:18
Mike Sheller good nite all...let me sleep late>(good nite all...let me sleep late):
- POORBOYS: The window IS small, but please don't fall out. EB: It's not easy being a giant, especially with all those folks wanting to climb on yer shoulders. Sometimes you just have to brush them... away!
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 00:14
Ron Jett email@example.com>(firstname.lastname@example.org):
- here's a little story re: the Japanese and their problems. It's a read
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 00:13
Mike Sheller (?)>((?)):
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 00:13
Jack China's Intentions?>(China's Intentions?):
Hope that China doesn't try these methods to often, or elsewhere:
And we trade with these monsters.
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 00:12
- Ted re your 19:40 post
Perhaps the gold market did not soar when the market was down,119,because
there isn't much fear; stock traders have been thoroughly conditioned
to buy on dips .that being said ,of course,they've been right...
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 00:07
- Poor this and that ?Listen guys their is only one Poorboys.Mike Sheller nice short story and I see Mooney is back .This poorboy did go insane today and bought Gold .God help us all.P.S.The window is very small.
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 00:06
EB MikeS...you did it AGAIN...don't you tire from your Giantness?>(MikeS...you did it AGAIN...don't you tire from your Giantness?):
RJ-you knew I would have figured it out eventually...
away...to prepare for the invasion of my Limey friend...I'm breaking out the good stuff...oh my!
once again for good measure...and I like Yeats
Wine comes in at the mouth
and love comes in at the eye
That's ALL we shall know for truth
before we grow old and die.
william butler yeats
- Date: Sat Aug 02 1997 00:02
- Roebear @ 18:54 -- Great statement. Vieserre -- My objection to RJ's views is his short-term view of gold: One day he's bullish, the next he's bearish. Actually, RJ is entertaining. His postings are fun to read, and I laugh when I read them. But they lack any consistancy. If the market is down, he gives bearish reasons why it should have gone down. If gold rises, he says why it was correct in doing so.
Everyone feels bearish after a down day, and bullish after an up day. We don't need RJ to reiterate those reasons. RJ would be more credible if he gave the same reasons whether the market was up or down.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 23:59
- George Cole: My 21:34 mind was clearly too focused on 1987 as I mistakenly referred to gold stocks bottomming then when I meant 1992. Ah, the mind plays strange tricks when it is roaring. 1987 is where the stock market is. Forgive!
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 23:48
EB Thank-you Semi-Demi-Platinum-God! I post to Boast!>(Thank-you Semi-Demi-Platinum-God! I post to Boast!):
- From your unperiphrastic-bombastiloquent-circumlocution to your HIGHLY informative posts I have enjoyed your participation ( even when you called me a numbskull ) . You do not ( as you have stated ) need to justify any statements you have made to this group. Many can and will continue to benefit from your 14yr experience in the METALS ONLY market. ( To ALL who are feeling ill will: pull your heads out! RJ has traded ONLY metals for many years. That is what he DOES ) . To me, that means you are a survivor and someone to be reckoned with in your field ( period ) . I am glad that you continue to post. It would be a shame to see you go AWAY forever, for we can continue to learn from ALL who post. I even learn from all the numbskulls. O.K. ( that was NOT an ass-kissing session by the way ) . I save that for 'in-house'.
NOW... to BOAST!! RJ - I would like to thank Myself for Carefully reading and Dissecting many of your first posts. I made a KILLING this week in PLATINUM. I have never traded platinum before and probably would have missed this move if you had not 'come aboard'. Even my broker ( who is a VERY experienced Dude and former floor trader ) has not traded PL in eons. I closed out a few positions today ( for DAMN-GOOD profit ) and held a few more. I will study this weekend re. strategies on how to build more positions, for this run is NOT over. THANKS DUDE! And I did NOT do this without DOING MY HOMEWORK FIRST!
I also had a few fantastic BULL backspreads in GCQ7 that turned to sh*t as Gold took a dive. So I cut my ( $400.00inc comm ) loss and concentrated on the markets that could make me some money instead of sobbing and whining. I also benefited from your posts AND the fundamentals there too. THANK-YOU again.
I also have some long silver and I can sure use a lift in that. Someday...ho-hum. See, not all boast.
ALL..or many...RJ has stated that he is a gollbug sometimes and sometimes he is not a gold bug. For 18 months he has not used emotion to trade gold and made ( i'm assuming a great deal of money ) . You can do it too, all the while continuing to take advantage of the lower prices to purchase the physical for a 'rainy day'. Gold will rise again, as he has stated COUNTLESS times. And when it does he will be on that side of the tracks. Get over it...
AWAY...sorry for the ramble and the boast...NOT
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 23:43
I have zero firsthand knowledge of impending CB gold sales. Very few people on earth do until it is too late and the barn has burned down. I heard the rumblings from Belgium and The Netherlands a couple months ago. As we all know, the Aussie sales had been carried out over the last six months. The panic response to a fait accompli had very little to do with quantities already absorbed into the market. It is that they were willing to sell at all that got people spooked. This entire bear market started in January 1996 when gold was last above 400, when Belgium stepped in and sold 207 metric tons. Its been all downhill from there. Belgium will sell more this year, but that is well known.
I have listed my suspect of further sales numerous times, I am watching the Germans and the Swiss. Why did the Swiss lower the 40% gold currency backing to 25%? What reason could they possibly have to do this? The Germans have made plenty of noise about revaluation, which was promptly squashed. I believe they too wee jump into the fray. I can give no definite time frame.
One of the traders at my companie is a man, who for more that 20 years, was an international gold trader for a major bank. He joined our company a year ago and was the first I knew to get extremely bearish on gold. He predicted further CB sales, and was not surprised at the Aussie sale. He also called for palladium to make a move above 230 when it was still limping around in the 130s. In my last serious conversation with him, he smiled and said gold is going to $180. This was not meant to be an actual prediction but an expression of complete lack of faith in the gold market. This from a man who traded gold in the millions of ounces internationally. I have come to trust his perceptions,and his track record in the last year has been impressive. I have my own sources on the trading floors, but he is the only source I know what has an inside and intimate working knowledge of international gold trading.
So, I hope this clears up what I know and what I suspect. When I add it all together, and then look at the market, I can only see what is. Gold is in serious trouble short term, by this I mean early 1998 or after more CB sales. I believe we will see less that $300 gold. I postulated 2 months ago that we would see palladium higher than gold this year. Doesn’t sound so farfetched now, does it.
Oh yeah, when gold is finished going down, it will then go up. I will ride that train with the same enthusiasm with which I ride the bearish express.
David ( Formerly Front )
I did respond to EB about the little marks above the letters with characteristic snippiness. My Response was : Demi God - î aîn’t tellîn. I guess I have to admit now that Î really don’t know how to do ît. Î also had no idea how to spell Komitet Gosudarstvennoî Bezopasnosti. Î copied ît from MS Bookshelf ( a trusted resource ) and pasted ît înto my document. The only way Î can do ît now îs to paste that damn lîttle î în each and every place Î need ît. A lot of trouble to go through Î admît. Î have been found out! EB, forgive me, for Î am a Newporter!
You continue to delight! You are the only person here who would, out of almost 2000 words, find the silliest. I didn’t even know MS Word knew how to spell goulash. Say high to Pepi. I’ve heard he isssa goooood booy. Perhaps your mochcin laces were some sort of doggy floss. Never mind.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 23:19
Old Fogie 2 Maritmes>(Maritmes):
- Old Fogies: Have a good sail!
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 23:15
- EB: Don't despair, I spent most of one day this week trying to find a turkish symbol set for an attorney. Hold down the alt key and while holding it down, type 164 on the numeric keypad. Let go of the alt key now. 8 ) The result is the spanish ñ. In Word, from the taskbar, choose Insert, Symbol and then pick your symbol from the chart and click on the Insert button. Choose different fonts for different symbol sets. Sorry I missed the first round of this thread.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 23:12
- Mike Sheller ( 22:32 ) Beautifully said my friend!...Good night ALL...
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 22:52
- nomercy-your 21:01 post
Pretty demanding of RJ arn't you?. And how
about YOU? Have YOU ever speculated here and
not so qualified it? Someday you might regret
the name you have given yourself.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 22:39
EB David...but I like Front better...although my bro's name is David...I confuse easily...>(David...but I like Front better...although my bro's name is David...I confuse easily...):
- Thanks. I have been trying to no avail. vronsky-I was also told that Word has the capabilities...thanks as well. I still can't figure it out, but I will. I've got time. And I have a call in to Mavis Beacon.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 22:32
Mike Sheller my name is Michael...and I'm a Kitcoholic.>(my name is Michael...and I'm a Kitcoholic.):
- The air at Kitco was like the aftermath of a cooling summer storm in recent days. The expunging of one disturbing visitor allowed this forum to shine forth once again in its true lustre. Now, it seems, another form of acrimony threatens to taint the atmosphere. I cannot speak for anyone but myself in this matter. I have no bone to pick with anyone currently posting at this site. Even when I occasionally don my libertarian warpaint and do battle with our liberal friend WW, I hope I have made it clear that I do so with respect, fondness, and the acknowledgement that he is my peer and a colleague in the quest for a better way for the human condition. Perhaps it is indeed human nature that squabbles must needs erupt between us from time to time. Such may occur even in loving families. I have found the Kitco environment to offer a wonderfully surrogate dose, in this incredibly busy and consuming day and age for all of us, of cameraderie, debate, and a strange sort of cyber friendship. I have made valued contacts and connections through posting here that would never have happened otherwise. I have listened to voices and minds, and hearts, I would never have otherwise as well. Many have been enlightening, piercing my smugness and illuminating my ignorance just when I needed it most. Why do any of us post here? Is it solely to exchange information in an ego-less, objective quest for reality? And what is reality? I have spent many years searching out THAT question, and can say without equivocation that I can illustrate best the systematic understanding of what this creation is all about through astrology. To many others, this would seem a complete and farcical denial of reality. That's OK with me. I understand because there was a time I knew nothing about these things and would have likely expressed the same disdain. Just as long ago I thought people who bought gold coins were some kind of strange anachronism. Like the old people who used to wipe their dog's asses in the street before there were even laws forcing us to clean up after them. Disseminating information at Kitco may also indeed consist of prediction of price and time. There is nothing wrong with that. I think people who deny that this is a valid undertaking may themselves be mired in a grey bandwith of life that mistakes consensus for reality, and mass hypnotism for truth. I am no hepcat, but I did call the top in palladium at exactly 240 well before it got there, and on July 18th gave the likely parameters for October platinum ( then 394 ) renewing its advance and reaching 435 before resistance. It got there today. I publicly called the breakout in bonds and the ensuing corollary of a continued stock market rally, even though psychologically and personally I am one of those prejudiced toward gold. I did this all with price charts and the NYSE horoscope. I ran out out of tea, so I couldn't use any leaves. I'm sorry, but that's the only way I can remain in touch with reality. It's the only way I can predict anything with any kind of half-assed accuracy in the markets, so please forgive me for using these arcane, and unreal crutches. My point is, of course, that I am clearly no guru or advisor or all-knowing anything. I am merely a practicing astrologer, metaphysician, and chart analyst, and I make no apologies for it. I respect the rights and sensibilities of those who don't care about what I do, and those who don't feel it is valid. I respect the depth and humanity of those with whom I converse who initially cast a skeptical eye at me when I first wandered into this forum and proclaimed who I am and what I do. There are enough large souls here to make my stay worthwhile. I think all of us who are presently posting have much to offer each other, just by the sharing of who and what we are and believe. I don't care about ego or motivation, as long as nobody is obnoxious. Irracible or pithy is quite another thing. That's spice. And dissenting views from the apparent majority should ALWAYS be welcome in any forum. There is no charge, it's all free, and it's ONLY A CHAT, and there is no reason for vituperation. Let our occasional human irritation with one another be cause for spirited debate, but please let it be, in the end, in a brotherly fashion. I consider the intellectual and informational exchanges here to be a contributor to the quality of MY life. If nothing else it is just plain FUN and I don't have to justify one bit of it. I hope all who post here cultivate the conditions and the atmosphere that makes it so for everyone.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 22:25
panda @The end of time!>(@The end of time!):
- Uh, oh! EBN has all currencies at ZERO! Commodities at zero. All major stock index at 1/4.
So, ... How much worthless gold can I buy with my worthless money? Clearly, stocks have won the gold or equities question! :- ) )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 22:10
- DA: It appears that you and EBN have entered into a conspiracy to access my personal banking records.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 22:02
- NOMERCY, ALL: Central Bank sales. Take a few minutes and put your self in the shoes of a Central Bank Chairman ( I am sure they all wear VERY nice shoes ) Here are some of the questions you might ask yourself. Try and think of some I missed.
1. What am I going to do with the money I get?
2. What is the public going to say?
3. Is it a good time to sell, can I get a good price?
4. If I need to buy it back can I get it cheaper?
5. Suppose I sell and there is a run out of my currency?
6. Should I sell all or only part?
7. What will be the impact on exports and imports?
8. What happens if the US dollar gets in trouble later?
9. What will my other Central Banker friends in other countries think of me?
10.Will the world community still think of our country as a responsible one?
Each Central Bank will have a different set of rules to comply with. For example, Switzerland has to put it up for a popular vote. In general, it would seem to me that selling now would be unwise just based upon price alone because Australia, Belgiam, Holland etc have already cashed in. It is late in the game, I will be criticized for not selling earlier like those other countries. Selling now would be percieved as weakness. Under that theory it seems to me that Central Bank selling is less likely today. If the price increases, as many of us hope, then Central Bank selling becomes more likely at those higher prices.
There is another factor we should consider about these sales. We have seen several Asian currencies devalued in order to improve their trade positions. Some of these gold sales may have been strategically designed to devalue currencies by those countries who are embarassed to make a public devaluation. Sell the gold, weaken my reserves, and let the market do my dirty work for me.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 21:55
- Thanks for the response, but if their purchasing manager is like ours I have no hope! Progeny of E.Scrooge and the Beastie Boys. If I were a real devoted goldbug I'd be nice to the counting house chap and get him to ask. UGH! I can't do it! Nevertheless I will press on with this pursuit of the silver Grail, after all, I believe in the long run we're all resurrected : ) ( = eternal optimist )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 21:54
- Lan Man:
It is articles such as these that warm my goldbug heart. Even as gold goes higher it will get no respect. This is the stuff of rallies.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 21:50
vronsky THE DINES LETTER - August 4, 1997>(THE DINES LETTER - August 4, 1997):
- Well-known Analyst cites potpourri of currency comments from world-acclaimed sources. Dines also says those blindly bullish on stocks are like the Italian proverb: “He who knows nothing, doubts nothing.”:
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 21:49
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 21:41
Lan Man Closing Bell>(Closing Bell):
- COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended mostly higher Friday,
as gold and silver continued to consolidate after seeing multi-year
lows last month, while platinum group metals ( PGMs ) recovered
further to set new contract highs.
On gold and silver, I was bearish before and I'm still bearish,
Smith Barney's Chicago based analyst Phil Tiger said. I think gold
is going to test the $300 level and silver the $4.00 level.
The PGMs are the only metals that are truly in a shortage as the
fact of the matter is there really isn't enough palladium to go
around if everybody decided they wanted it today, and so platinum
is entitled to have a $100 premium over gold.
Gold as usual failed to respond to the latest U.S. economic news in
which U.S. unemployment fell to 4.8 percent, its lowest level in 24
years, and June personal income rose 0.6 percent, and non-farm
payrolls rose 316,000 in July.
Palladium went limit up for the third day in a row on the Tokyo
Commodity Exchange ( TOCOM ) on Friday also, on heavy broker
shortcovering, traders said.
( Reuters 04:04 PM ET 08/01/97 ) For the full text story, see
COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Aug97 325.10 326.00 323.30 324.70 +.60 414.50 314.60
Sep97 325.00 325.00 325.00 325.50 +.30 326.30 317.50
Oct97 327.60 328.00 325.30 326.80 +.30 426.50 316.80
Dec97 329.50 330.10 327.30 328.90 +.30 456.50 318.50
Feb98 331.50 331.60 330.00 331.20 +.40 424.00 322.50
Apr98 332.80 332.80 332.80 333.20 +.40 408.40 325.00
Est. Sales 35064
COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Sep97 446.00 450.00 442.00 447.00 _2.00 576.00 418.00
Dec97 451.50 456.50 448.50 453.50 _1.90 701.90 424.00
Mar98 458.00 461.00 454.00 459.90 _1.80 573.00 432.00
May98 464.00 464.50 464.00 463.90 _1.70 564.00 437.00
Jul99 494.00 494.00 494.00 493.80 _1.40 660.00 472.00
Est. Sales 25427
NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Sep97 206.60 206.60 206.60 206.60 +6.00 203.00 128.75
Dec97 198.60 198.60 198.60 198.60 +6.00 195.00 120.25
Est. Sales 791
COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Oct97 430.50 439.00 429.00 438.50 +13.00 434.00 355.50
Jan98 416.00 426.00 416.00 427.50 +15.00 424.00 360.00
Est. Sales 3740
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 21:40
I do not know the current numbers for Kodak but they used to be about 10% of worldwide consumption. If you want to know furthur I suggest a call to the Co. My experience with calling companies is that eventually you will find someone who will be of use. It took me a while but I found someone in the purchasing dept of one of the big auto firms that would chat about their PGM purchases. If I had to guess I'll bet that you find that they keep relatively small inventories and have no forward hedging program to guarantee supplies. If you find anything of interest please post.
I noted with some interest today that both HL, and CDE appear to be breaking out of a pretty good consolidation. Perhaps this is a sign.
My metals desk still reports that there is very little interest in silver and seemed almost disdainful of the stuff saying something about how 'it couldn't seem to get out of its own way'. I take this as very encouraging because they have a habit of getting excited at the wrong times.
There is also very little fear in the PGM markets. What is most interesting is that the backwardation really has not expanded much, and the bid/ask spreads are still around $3.00 in Pa. Last time we were at these levels the spreads were $10 and the backwardation was severe. I think what has happened is that during the last spike in the Pa the lease rates got so high, that all available metal was brought to the spot market. Since the best and most liquid lease period was in the 1 - 3 month range most of this cash metal if loaned and not sold would be coming due in this time frame. Add this to the potential delivery squeeze in the Sept. contract and the short term demand for metal might be quite extraordinary. Since it is apparent that the Russians are not delivering enough metal to cover the supply deficit something has got to give.
This leads to an interesting possibility in terms of the domino effect. Maybe over the next few days we will see the PGM's again go balistic. With silver looking somewhat healthy and gold perhaps having turned the corner maybe the entire precious metals group will go haywire. This in turn will be looked upon unkindly by the bond market which seems to have caught a bit of a chill at these rarified levels. Finally, in the year 2082 the stock market will take notice and there will be a 10% correction. Too bad we will all be dead and never see it.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 21:34
- George Cole:
The gold stocks mostly bottomed in late 1987, in fact on November 27th if memory serves, while gold bumped along the bottom for 3 more months in an extremely narrow range before its ascent in March 1993. Canadian golds in $CD bottomed even earlier in 1992.
I feel strongly that gold is now ready to move and that we have now seen the top in the stock market and quite probably in bonds. I know full well it is hazardous to venture such thoughts, but there it is.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 21:32
vronsky FOREIGN LANGUAGE CHARACTERS>(FOREIGN LANGUAGE CHARACTERS):
- David ( Formerly Front ) ( to EB: ) : Microsoft WORD has this capability.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 21:23
nomercy S&P warns Thailand credit rating ripe for downgrading>(S&P warns Thailand credit rating ripe for downgrading):
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 21:22
David (Formerly Front) to EB:>(to EB:):
I noticed that no-one wanted to come forward the other day and let you know how to create those special characters that RJ was using. In effect, they're foreign language characters set that are used in other than english keyboards. You can access them by using a combination of the ALT key plus a number ( use the numeric keyboard number keys ) between 126 and 256. For instance :
ä = ALT + 132 on the keypad
à = ALT + 133 on the keypad
Hope that helps. I guess RJ was too busy making mooney ! ( :- ) )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 21:21
- Philippine Rumors:
Meanwhile, Citibank, N.A., one of the biggest foreign
exchange players in the country, said in its daily market
commentary on its Reuters screen: Rumors are abound
that the peso might experience renewed pressure given the
probable move of the ( Bangko Sentral ) to float the local
currency for a second time. This gave the market the
signal to bid anew the greenback.
An economist of a local commercial bank who requested
anonymity said she also heard the rumor, which fed
speculations the Bangko Sentral had been slowly
increasing its offer for the dollar to soften the impact of
another de facto devaluation.
The rumor is that the peso might depreciate again by as
much as P35 ( against the dollar ) in three days, so the
central bank has been selling ( at a higher rate ) in
anticipation of this, the economist said.
Bangko Sentral officials and Citibank treasurer and
spokesperson Patrick Dewilde were not available for
comment as of 6:30 last night.
At the PDS, the Bangko Sentral's offer rate for the dollar
serves as the benchmark for the other selling rates of
Last Wednesday, the Bangko Sentral increased its offer
for the dollar to PhP29 from PhP28.50, leading the peso
to depreciate to PhP29.967 from Php29.486, previously.
The Bangko Sentral yesterday kept its offer for the dollar
at Php29 as the peso slid 3.2 centavo against the dollar to
average at Php29 from the previous Php29.967.
Foreign exchange traders said the Bangko Sentral
accounted for more than 75% of total volume turnover of
$65.9 million yesterday as the peso opened and closed at
A foreign exchange dealer of a local commercial bank said
it was possible that the Bangko Sentral could be
considering floating the peso once more, given its ongoing
negotiations with the International Monetary Fund.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 21:18
nomercy China - US - Nuclear materials>(China - US - Nuclear materials):
- A letter to Mr Clinton from 62 members of
Congress objected to certification because of **fears
materials sold to China might get into the wrong
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 21:05
TK I will survive>(I will survive):
- With todays action I've come to the conclusion that the US bull sotck market is going to keep going like the Energizer Bunny. There is just no other viable alternative to park investment money in the minds of the Average Joe. DOW up or down, it does'nt matter to Joe, his 401k contribution will still be funelled in monday morning. There is no other reason for the markets to rally back after todays reports except for the faith that the money will keep coming. Gold is in serious need of a public relations makeover.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 21:04
Niner Hello Everyone>(Hello Everyone):
- Hello All;
I've been lurking Kitco for over a month now, and thought I'd better say Hello, introduce myself, and thank all contributors for sharing their thoughts, their experience, and their great research links.
My interest in Gold was piqued in late '96, and I began watching spot price regularly. I am one of those who was looking for a test of ( approximately ) 340, then 325, then 300. My reasoning was that the largest upside potential would be realized IF AND WHEN we saw gold fall to unrealistically low levels - - - A reversal at that stage might be heavily keyed to major changes in the economy, i.e., a large hit on the equity market, a war, the onset of inflation, whatever . . . Between whatever drove gold that low in the first place, and the probable financial chaos when that set of circumstances rightfully collapsed and then corrected itself, a raging bull market for gold might ensue - - - And I wanted to be part of it.
If events had caused gold to begin a recovery at 340, my opinion is that the upswing would have been anemic at best. Things were not wild enough at that juncture. I feel the same way about our present levels - - - Too many bulls still hanging in there, no immediate sign of economic chaos, a truly wishy-washy set of circumstances. A reversal in gold's many-year downtrend at this point would probably be as exciting as the downtrend itself. It must get lower to get exciting . . .
I am looking for ( not necessarily expecting, just watching for ) a penetration of the current support clear down to 300, with perhaps a brief pause at 314 or so. If 300 is reached, I would next anticipate a bottom perhaps $15-20 lower. If this scenario doesn't play out, I don't believe that there would be enough upside volatility to fuel a meteoric rise. That doesn't imply that there would not be good profits to be made from Gold, it just wouldn't be nearly as dramaitic a performance as my watched-for scenario!
In the tradition of investment purists, I have have put my money where my mouth is, buying some cheap out-of-the-money June '98 calls. This is a small speculation, insurance that in case Gold makes its *move* while I'm with the family at Disneyworld I won't totally miss out. If the future favorably unfolds, I will add position again in the form of futures options should the scenario appear to be playing out.
That's it, I've bared my soul, thanks to ALL posters, I enjoy your posts immensely. Oldhand, I laughed hard and forwarded your Men from Mars post to several friends - - - Great Stuff!
Best Regards, Niner
P.S. Too many bulls still posting at Kitco. When we shake out the last of you, Gold might really start to move!
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 21:04
- We all can learn, even from fools! For they show us what we should not be.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 21:01
- Your 20:02 Supply and demand
You cited 3 reasons, third being CB sales and the threat of further sales for gold's present market slump. EVERY news story which I read from Reuter, has the same intonation. More CB sales to come, yet the only country mentioned thus far is Lithuania, which is a non-factor. Can you identify which CB's are going to sell or have already sold and not announced or are you speculating? If you are speculating I believe you should admit so categorically.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 20:59
- It is time to stop the accusations, finger pointing, appologies and excuses. We all are adults and we are here to learn from one another. All people have different ways of delivering their opinions. Give everyone the benefit of doubt, stick to conversation about gold, learn and enjoy.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 20:52
- I/B/E/S guest on Louie's show predicts a 80,000 Dow in twenty years!?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 20:49
vronsky WE HAVE BEEN HAD - Is Former Pres. Nixon Turning in his Grave?>(WE HAVE BEEN HAD - Is Former Pres. Nixon Turning in his Grave?):
- The U.S. Dollar has been over-valued for the last 26 years - since 1971. What is causing this overvaluation must be something extraordinary, but what can it be? Tlaga Report:
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 20:35
RJ Friends, Romans, Countrymen>(Friends, Romans, Countrymen):
I took some time today and reread all I have posted in the last couple weeks and am at a loss to account for the distortions made of my remarks. I have asked some who made these distortions to cite where in my words have I expressed what they claim. I couldn’t find it. I did remark that some appear to ignore what is going on in these markets and, in the face of steadily declining prices, deny that gold is in trouble. They appear to have taken deep emotion offense at this position.
I apologize to all here for the amount of space that this controversy is occupying. I too know the frustration of having to wade through much that is of no interest to arrive at the meat. Some think that this is a waste of space, some think that this is a defining moment of this group. I think that I will take Who Cares advice when he wrote that I was taking this too seriously. I now see a deeper significance in his handle, and I think his words are wise. I once heard a statement that made no sense to me at the time. I was young and the apparent self contradiction confused me. I can’t credit the source, but these words have stayed with me over the decades. As I grow wiser, and catch myself getting swept away in the BS, the words come back to me, and they make sense:
Live your life so that you will never be ashamed or embarrassed of anything they print about you on the front page of the newspaper. Even if its untrue.
To those that have offered encouragement to me in these pages, thanks. To the many who have e-mailed me privately with their support, I will reply in kind this weekend. For the two or three that are angry with me, I will pursue this no longer. For the almost two dozen that have supported me, publicly and privately, you appear to welcome a meeting of diverse opinions. I will try to tone down some of my rhetoric, as well as remember why I’m here. I’ll also try to put some of the fun back in. I too am tired of these squllions of squabbles.
Mooney - Perhaps you can find the appropriate words in your delightful bag-o-words.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 20:29
Miro we have differences in time horizons>(we have differences in time horizons):
- Gentlemen, this exchange of bears versus bulls, short versus long, is
good ( though here and there it’s becoming too personal ) . I am into
long thing, be it a stock or gold issu. I appreciate traders
expressing their short view of market because that gives me a better
understanding what is really going on. No, I don’t like it, but it is
a part of this market. I think that the friction between two camps is
due to differences in time horizons when we express a view gold will
go up/down. When shorts say gold has no way to go but down it may
mean in the next couple of weeks/months but long bulls think in terms of
months/years and hear gold will stay down for the next couple of years.
Sure we have a disagreement because our baselines are different.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 20:09
- George Cole
Take a look at the VSE it's rallying now. Forget about the xau
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 20:05
RJ This is over>(This is over):
I give up. I am at a complete loss at how you arrive at words such as, berate, lunatic, eleventh commandment, and fool, when describing anything I have written here. You seem to read words, redefine, reword, and hold forth something entirely unrecognizable from the original.
You have twisted my take on those who have been consistently mistaken as to market direction and future course, into the throwing of stones to those that hold long positions. I find it sad that some, who having made a mistake, refuse to acknowledge it to themselves, and instead invent conspiracies and collusions to justify there mistakes. I am reminded of hepcat’s strange way of twisting the general bad feeling toward him into persecution for his beliefs. Your thought process appears to be the same. I believe you make up your own reality, as evidenced by your incredible distortions of anything I have ever said. I once invited you to find anything I have ever written to support your attacks. Forget it, as I will soon forget you.
I find it impossible to afford you any respect, and I have no time for those who would distort reality.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 20:02
RJ Price is more than supply / demand>(Price is more than supply / demand):
There are three things cited by every trader I respect, and almost all I don’t, for the recent run down in gold. 1: Soaring equities 2: Overall strong economy, with low interest rates and low inflation. 3: CB bank sales and the threat of more to come.
When I read a claim that the market has discounted CB sales, I can only wonder where those who hold this idea get there information. Perhaps the sudden worldwide drop in gold last month immediately following the Assuie announcement was shear coincidence. Perhaps the universal reports of fear of more central bank sale were all mistakes of communication. To say the market has discounted one its primary fears, is to ignore what is happening all around us.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 19:56
RJ I'm wondering>(I'm wondering):
- George Cole
May I ask you why you post here? Do you do it for personal gain? Do you do it to share your knowledge? Why do you take the time and effort to bring the myriad of details to our attention? I am grateful that you do, for I have learned much from your posts, but why do you do it? I am asking the same question of myself tonight. The best answer I can come up with is, that in formulating an explanation of market conditions, it forces me to think through the factors that go into my opinions. When confronted with my own writings, I am the harshest critic if what I read is unsupported. This process of double checking positions and beliefs held is valuable to me and has helped solidify some of my more nebulous beliefs.
We all learn by reading this forum, but why do we post? I read this sight for a year before my first comments in early June because I was swept up in the incredible excitement of the PA / PL short squeeze and, after 12 hour days of pressure trading, I needed to make some sense of it. I must admit to some conceit in some of my more whimsical writings, as they furthered nobody’s knowledge and are more, to paraphrase a colleague, the mental equivalent of passing wind.
Is it my remarks you characterize as boastful and arrogant? This is a surprise when I simply report what is. My manner can be abrasive, and has the tendency to turn thus when confronted by those who deliberately distort my statements. From the first post I made here in early June, I have expressed a bearish view on gold. There have been many direct challenges to my remarks to which I have responded to in great detail. You are likewise predisposed to a detailed oriented approach to the market. Our styles differ greatly in that you seem to trade on technical, while I treat the technical aspects of at least equal importance to the psychology of the market. How people feel about gold is an enormous factor in whether they will buy it or not. There are some here who would buy gold at any price, and others that would buy when it makes sense to do so.
I am interested to hear why you take the time and effort to post your views.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 19:56
- Any BMI data feed users in the house? Today was the first day in 2 years that I had no data feed all day. Anyone else with the same problem? Of course the lines were swamped. Something akin to brokerage house lines on some fond future day.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 19:55
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 19:48
- George Cole ( 16:40 ) : Arrogant, boastful & etc.. I could not agree more. If the intent of the writer is to serve his own ego rather than to disseminate information and opinion, quality of content becomes of secondary importance and difficult to discern, in the glare of a well burnished burnished halo.
Personal villification of those holding polar opinions is equally distasteful. Those who earn their bread and beans by trading, would be in a frightful position, had they adopted the standard goldbug credo. ie, gold can only go up! In the end, there is much learn from opposing opinion. It should be encouraged. Not shouted down. To those who feel uncomfortable when someone calls their baby ugly; perhaps a cold shower and a warm beer is in order. Failing that, restraint at the keyboard will suffice.
There is also much to learn here, in terms of quality of communication and personal expression. Feedback is an essential element of the learning process if it is processed in a sober fashion. If a writer, frequently, finds himself at the receiving end of a ration of crap, perhaps it is not the message but the perceived intent of the messenger. ......... The only difference between 'now' and 'then' is that the playground is larger and a bit more complex but the technique is about the same: Cut the other guy a little slack. ...... hopefully before you bust 'im in the chops.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 19:40
- Vieserre: You have been a busy boy today with many well written posts,especially your 12:12....years ago when I did some day trading in gold stocks on a day such as this with the Dow plunging,the gold stocks automatically seemed to go up...It was a no-brainer!...Today at the Dow's low point ( down 119 ) gold stocks were stuck in neutral let alone soaring and I'm wondering if maybe this is a new era after all...With the evolution of instant communication around the world has gold to a degree become obsolete as a vehicle of safe haven....The markets certainly react differently to news than they did in the good old days,when it seemed much easier to predict what a market would do when faced with a specific event or news item...So much seems to be trend related and for that reason I remain committed to the stock market,especially since I feel I'm in essential industries such as international oil,Telco's, and electric+ gas utilities...Being in DRIP's I feel I'm in a no-lose situationsince if the market goes down I naturally buy more shares and the only way I lose is if companies such as XON,SPC,PNY..ect..ect..cut or eliminate their dividends and the odds are in my favor that will not happen...I can't predict anything with certainty and I can only go with the odds and at this point in time the upside potential for gold shares is much greater than the downside risk...IMHO that is!...If only I were smart enough to predict earthquakes on a PARTICULAR day or the price of Gold on a particular day inthe future...Those predictions are laughable IMHO....I'm rambling my friend and still in some kind of state of shock after my experience yesterday on the high seas....That trip to the mountains sounds right on!...
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 19:39
- Four Philippine Senators, high police officials and others linked to drug trade.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 19:31
Vieserre Thats it.>(Thats it.):
- Good evening and have a good week-end where ever you are.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 19:30
vronsky goldbug's silver picks>(goldbug's silver picks):
- nailz: Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 10:26
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 19:25
- GEORGE COLE: According to my charts, the XAU touched 66+ in April of 92, hit its low of about 65 about 7 months later and bullion hit its low in March of 93. This market is giving similar signals.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 19:23
- Philippine Central Bank acts to halt Dollar speculation.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 19:18
nailz @THE GOLDBUG....>(@THE GOLDBUG....):
- HEY VRONSKY.....Next time you do a commercial would you do the link to the last of July GOLDBUG's comments The one where he updates the silver small caps....I can't find it....
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 19:12
- Dow/Gold Ratio 25.21 Down side of the spike?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 19:03
George Cole 1993>(1993):
- Does anyone recall the lag in early 1993 between the bull market in gold stocks and the bull market in gold? Bullion did not start following the stocks for a number of weeks if memory serves. A good chance we are seeing the early stage of a repeat performance right now.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 18:51
- Nomercy: Good post re China's peaceful intentions. I have to think of what Hitler said when Neville gave him Czechoslovokia. And then Neville's statement. You know what happened.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 18:23
Vieserre In Response>(In Response):
- 2. Thanks for the compliment and for responding. This may surprise you but in the main I agree with you. As to ( 1 ) no disagreement except I said I may have saved money, the point is by having such knowledge, I may have been able to make a better informed decision. ( 3 ) Touche'
( : ) , I knew that comment would touch a spot on some, and it certainly was not intended to offend anyone. We are all like those blind men around the elephant who gather knowledge and make opinions based on what one comes in contact with. And although my personal opinion is based on where I have touched the elephant, it does not mean that I am necessarily right or others are wrong who have different experience and by listening to their views, I may learn more than what I have previously contacted. ( 4 ) I do not know what to make of your remarks. Clearly, Peutz or anyone else should be able to state a view without reflecting on his character as a person, and it was not my intent to do otherwise. ( 5 ) Hopefully, by having better understanding of the markets, we can make better decisions, but I agree that this does not necessarily make it so. ( 6 ) Again, I certainly do not wish to convey the view that I am against gold bugs. Some of my best friends are goldbugs ( : ) . There is a certain quality about gold that distinguishes it from all other commodities, including all other precious metals. This quality somehow arouses passion in people and they relate to gold as more than just a metal but a symbol of their beliefs and convictions. And I include myself in this category. Certainly, if this were a forum on soybeans, copper, or oil - we would not nearly have the discussion and responses that gold generates.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 18:10
- Pakistan Central Bank challenges Pakistan Government over authority to order potential bankruptcy rescue plan.
KARACHI ( August 1 ) : The State Bank of Pakistan has reminded
the banks not take any action that is inconsistent with the policies,
regulations and directives issued by it even if ordered by a governmental
body or quasi-governmental agency.
The occasion for reminding the banks of Section 46B of the State
Bank of Pakistan ( Amendment ) Act 1997 arose as the Water and Power
Development Authority ( Wapda ) attempted to obtain Rs 4 billion from the
banking system to pay off a loan falling due at end July.
Wapda's demand were pushed forth by the Ministry of Water and
Power with full support of the Ministry of Finance as Wapda is to repay a
Rs 2.6 billion loan to the Government.
The central bank had to intervene prohibiting the banks to oblige
Wapda as the National Credit Plan duly approved by the National
Economic Council has earmarked only Rs 2.5 billion in additional credit in
Fy 1997-98 to five autonomous bodies, namely, Wapda, PTC, NFC,
OGDC & PTV. Further, the Government has made a commitment to the
International Monetary Fund that the amount of Rs 2.5 billion earmarked
in additional credit to the five PSES will be phased out over four quarters
i.e. Rs 625 million per quarter.
As such, Wapda can only obtain Rs 625 million, otherwise the
other four PSES will be left dry and will not be able to get any additional
overdraft from the banking system.
It is learnt that Wapda is unwilling to a roll over of $100 million loan
from Society Generale at 325 basis points over LIBOR i.e. at 9.5 percent
interest, and is wanting to raise the money locally at 18 percent. The
reason, it is said, could be the fear of an exchange parity loss.
The SBP Circular to the banks says:
Your kind attention is invited to Section 46B recently added to the
State Bank of Pakistan Act, 1956 through the State Bank of Pakistan
( Amendment ) Act, 1997. It is reproduced for your information and record
46B. Inconsistent directives not be issued.- No governmental or
quasi governmental body or agency shall issue any directive, directly or
indirectly, to any banking company or any other financial institution
regulated by the Bank which is inconsistent with the policies, regulations
and directives issued by the Bank pursuant to this Act, the Banking
Companies Ordinance, 1962 ( LVII of 1962 ) or any other law in force.
2. All banking companies are advised that they have to ensure that
they do not take any action that is inconsistent with the policies, regulations
and directives issued by the State Bank of Pakistan.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 18:09
nomercy South Africa Mines in Red -Worst Qtr ever>(South Africa Mines in Red -Worst Qtr ever):
- No X-mas cards are planned for Costello & short sellers
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 18:00
vronsky BANK OF JAPAN CRYING IN ITS SAKE>(BANK OF JAPAN CRYING IN ITS SAKE):
- With the plunge in the U.S. long-bond today, the BOJ lost more than $4 BILLION. As a prelude to this concert the Nikkei plummeted more than 500 points. Will tomorrow's Rising Sun herald Nippon's financial sunset?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 17:43
Vieserre Thank You>(Thank You):
- JAN, TIM: Thank you. WHO CARES: Thank you for replying, I will take a look at that URL and consider it with your comments as time permits.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 17:38
Vieserre At the Market>(At the Market):
- GEORGE COLE: As I posted many times before, we seem to be continually in sync with views and approach to the market. Although the XAU looks encouraging, it has been primarily a few majors carrying the load, particularly NEM. And I also have been observing the heaviness of the RSAs as well as the Australians. Although negative reaction to unfavorable news has been indeed positive lately, positive reaction to favorable news is still absent such as to today's economic numbers which offered the market an excuse for a decent rally. I am still looking for that spark which will ignite the kindling. Still, the XAU is at this level for a reason, and all things considered, there are hopeful signs beginning to appear that suggest at least a near term bottom. But there are simply not enough to give me comfort. As to Vehemence, I prefer Conviction. I take no joy nor certainly not pride in such posts, and I more than hesitated to make it, but at times matters simply need to be stated.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 17:38
- Warren Buffet FYI;
Coca-Cola Korea co. has been losing its market share to competitors, including Pepsi-Cola
Korea Co., according to beverage sources. Coca-Cola's market share, which stood at
75.4 percent in March, fell to 69.1 percent in April, 66.2 percent in May and 63.4 percent
in June, down 12 percentage points in just three months.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 17:27
Vieserrre The LBMA Puzzle and the Dachshund>( The LBMA Puzzle and the Dachshund):
- JACK: Thanks for the earlier comment, sorry I have not gotten back to you sooner on the LBMA. There is a lot I do not understand about the gold markets but the LBMA is biggest puzzle. To consider that over 930t of gold - equivalent to over 10 billion dollars and the entire reserves of the European Union Central Banks - is traded each day is mind boggling. Yet so little is said about this behemoth as to who the traders are and the purpose of the trades. And why the COMEX should be able to wag its tail since it is a Dachshund in comparison, as C-Max put it, is indeed perplexing.
In an attempt to make sense of this, I view the gold market as having several basic types of supply/demand components. The first is what everyone reads about: producer supply and scrap on one side, and fabrication demand on the other. A second type rises from CB's adding to or reducing gold reserves. And this together with the first is often massaged and misleadingly reported to support the spin that the media or commentator desires to make with respect to gold supply and demand. And depending on the spin, one could believe that there is a huge deficit, a modest amount or a surplus. The third type which I believe is most important is investment supply and demand on which I have not seen much published except for related speculative buying and selling on the futures exchange. I view gold hedging in the same manner as naked speculative buying and selling. It may temporarily affect price when being implemented or unwound, but it does not affect price based on physical supply since it neither adds to or reduces total supply.
Trading directed to each of the above is evidenced both on the COMEX and the OTC market, but most trading appears to take place on the OTC. Some of the LBMA trading may relate to OTC forward contracts being implemented by producers and speculators both on the long and short side, not unlike undertaken at the COMEX. However, major players may prefer the OTC as there is no particular contract month to be concerned with, there is anonymity, and one can contract directly with a party of his choice, among other reasons. Then there simply may be other traders who buy and sell on the LBMA spot market with little interest or impact on price - which may include producers, bullion houses, banks, and dealers. The producer has little impact on price since it sells its gold at the prevailing spot price. ( It may however affect price by hedge timing, dependent on its expectation of future price. ) The commerical dealer for the fabrication trade similarly will buy at prevailing spot in an amount that will satisfy fabrication demand at that price. Banks, bullion houses, dealers and the like may simply not care about price as they may be trading risk free by passing the risk on to others. Thus a lot of trading can occur on the LBMA without regard to price.
However, a trader that would be expected to trade on the LBMA, as well as on the COMEX, and who should affect price is the private investor or hoarder of gold. He does not have to sell or buy, and he will only do so at price which is based on his view of gold as a performing asset. And, it is this Investor who is believed to affect the margin, which usually determines price of most commodities. I have no knowledge of the amount of gold held by such investors, but my premise is that since 2/3 of the global gold supply is in private hands, it would seem reasonable that a sizeable portion is held as private investment stock. And, these holders may affect price even though they may only trade among themselves.
As to why the COMEX seemingly has such a large influence on price when considering its relative size to the LBMA, I suppose it is not unlike many other markets which are influenced by the futures markets. A price change, owing to the size and nature of trading would seem to be more easily accomplished on the futures market as opposed to the OTC market. But it may also be because a lot of the trading on the LBMA is done independent of price as above reasoned. In any event, a price change induced by the futures market should hold only if traders on the LBMA accept it, and that is based on the above cumulative trading considerations and others.
Since IMO the private investor is the sine qua non of price, if gold is to significantly increase in price, ( other than for technical short covering ) it is going to be because of conditions that make gold attractive as an investment other than for fabrication demand. Although fabrication demand is important, there is far too much gold to satisfy this demand alone for decades. But once gold becomes more attractive as an investment for other reasons such as inflation, currency revaluation and the like, it will rise in price accordingly. In addition such oher reasons are also likely to discourage CB selling and producer hedging. IMO, since the investment community buys or sells gold based on such economical or financial expectations, axiomatically, it is why gold has responded reasonably well over the years as a leading economical or financial indicator
The above collage is based primarily on supposition, many parts of which could be in error. Your comments are welcomed, as well as others on this forum who are more knowledgible.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 16:40
George Cole Dow Rebound>(Dow Rebound):
- BOB; Amen to your 15:55 post! This is a forum for intellectual discussion, not name calling, personal attacks, or kicking people when they are down. All traders and investors make mistakes . But the smart ones learn from their errors. Boastful, arrogant remarks from anyone -- bull or bear -- rub me the wrong way.
The Dow was rescued again during the last hour. My observation has been that whenever the Dow sells off sharply early in the day and then makes up most or all of the loss during the last hour, a hum dinger of a rally is sure to follow. So don't be surprised if the Dow surges 200-300 points next week. When the end comes for real, it most likely will involve a crashing -- not a surging -- dollar.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 16:37
- PANDA: Re your comment something is going to break here. Mabye it did today. The bond market if off 67 ticks, it is a larger market than stocks and has a more direct impact on gold ( inflation scare ) . A lot of money was lost today, ie previous profits evaporated. If bonds continue down, stocks will follow. Another point. Japan was down 500+ last night. That must have had some impact on the action in bonds today. Randall Forsyth in Barron's may have some insights tomorrow.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 16:35
Miro Gold needs USDA !!>(Gold needs USDA !!):
- USDA to buy 20 Mln lbs turkey to bolster prices
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 16:32
Byron @ And One More Point:>(@ And One More Point:):
- Richard Burke: Also, right now I see Newmont as a leader and I am very interested in what the leader is doing. Don't own any of Newmont. ( Wonder is Georg Soros still does? ) And Newmont's breakout is just one of various technical indicators I am looking at. The Weekly Gold Futures Stocastics for August Gold has given me a strong positive signal also.... But time will tell which way we are going. Right now I am leaning on the up side. ...Well, out of here for today. Will check back tomorrow.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 16:31
nomercy China- PLA 70th Anniversary>(China- PLA 70th Anniversary):
- US Treasury bondholders and major exporter to the US are telling the world their military build up and modernization is not for expansion purposes. They don't want us to misinterpret.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 16:31
Bob @...I hear ya...>(@...I hear ya...):
- Walt: Well then what if only us good folks on Kitco would have known the price trend last year then we all would have made money ... ;- )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 16:21
- To Bob: I appreciated your 15:55 post and read it with great interest.
One of your statement prompts me to offer an opinion.
With reference to yours ( We all love to know a year ago, what we know
at present.... )
The price of gold or any other speculative commodity depends on the
number of people who take a position at any particular time. If you or
any additional number of people had advance knowledge of the course
or price development, you and all the other people would have been
induced to take a position, thereby affecting the price at that time.
In other words, the price would have been different and not the same
as it is registerd, listed or shown a year later.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 16:15
Byron @ Horseing Around:>(@ Horseing Around:):
- nailz: Silky Sullivan was a race horse famous for coming from FAR, FAR behind and winning horse races. This was about 30 years ago, ( best guess )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 16:12
Byron @ But...>(@ But...):
- Richard Burke: Seen some posting recently indicating that Newmont is one of the lowest gold producers around. Might have even seen a post about that today. Also like to judge a stock more by the charts ( and its behavior on the charts ) than the fundamentals. A breakout on the WEEKLY charts, in my opinion, carries much weight especially at the TIME.... XAU closed at 98.10. At the reistence area. Philly option people want to keep us in suspense for one more weekend. : )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 16:10
- If this doesn't sound like a market turning point, I don't know what does. The longs ( myself included ) are hyper-sensitive to the bear comments. The longs have been the losers in the current bear market. The shorts have been the winners. It seems that the longs are complaining about the bears haughty behavior. Well, this to shall pass one day. One question, isn't haughty behavior in the markets usually indicative of a top? Relax, everybody. RJ is not your enemy. He is just a trader. Just like the rest of us here. Whether it's for five days or five years, we are all traders. Unfortunatly, big egos tend to go with trading ( especially if you're winning! ) , and at times we ALL suffer this malody.
The Dow was recued,... today...
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 16:04
6pak Joy and Pleasure @ Thoughtful Positions>(Joy and Pleasure @ Thoughtful Positions):
- Two ( 2 ) cents worth !
*Success* Is A Journey
*Not* A Destination
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 16:01
Richard Burke email@example.com,ca>(firstname.lastname@example.org,ca):
- Byron: Regarding Newmont, Deaner this morning on his site indicated his technicals show that Newmont has indeed broken out. On the other hand, you want to be careful of Newmont in the long term. The fundamentals are scary. Someone posted on this in the last six weeks. I can not remember the details. If that someone is watching, please post again.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 16:00
nailz EXPLANATION NEEDED....>(EXPLANATION NEEDED....):
- BYRON....What do you mean when you say the DOW is trying to do a Silky Sullivan on us ?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:55
Bob @...a fundamentalists spin on gold price and a note for RJ>(@...a fundamentalists spin on gold price and a note for RJ):
- Price is a function of demand and supply. The price of gold is a function of the demand for jewellry, industrial composites, and a contra-currency to the US dollar. The supply of gold is a function of newly refined product - that is a function of cost and expected producer risk/return, CB and fund bullion inventories, and manufactured composites - jewellry and other industrial products that contain gold - that are available to be recycled.
The market has discounted CB inventory sales and the demand/supply gap. Recycling of gold composites back to marketable supply is not material and often included in reputable forecasts of demand/supply gaps.
Whether the prices jumps and falls back and drops from current levels is not related to news already discounted in the price but to the shear power and authority of speculative investors who can manage the price of gold in the absence of equally financially superior opponents.
Yes Virginia, there really is no magic to price action when you think of the historic short position that weighs heavily on the current market. Many long investors are underwater and have been caught by the 15% decline in gold price over the past year. Had we known that external events, such as the RBA announcement ( that they had successfully sold $2 B worth of gold in the previous six months ) would be exploited by the short forces to bring the metal down $20 we would have certainly joined the party. ( We would have loved to know what we know now over one year ago ) .
The point is that there is nothing wrong with making money selling short and equally nothing wrong to holding a position if one accepts that fundamental economics ( gold demand/supply and cost of production ) will eventually turn in favour of the long position.
It is certainly unacceptable to berate anyone for holding a winning position who explains how they arrived at their good fortune through reflective evaluation of information. It is equally disrespectful for anyone to claim that those who are currently underwater are somehow related to lunatics and have taken up the cause of being long gold as the eleventh commandment.
I distinctly remember who started throwing the stones and it annoys me to read posts from people whose opinions I otherwise respect and who are now not being fair in assessing the source and the nature of the mud slinging that had occurred on this fine list of late.
The fact is RJ had started his short posturing by suggesting that those of us who hold long positions in gold are somehow not worthy to comment on this list due to our inability to be on the rigth side of the current trend. Where was RJ when the price was $365 ? Did RJ give us the benefit of his wisdom at that time ? No. He, like other recent converts to the short side, wants to do us a favour by reminding us of our infantile approach to the gold market.
The evidence suggests that traders in the long-run become losers ( read most of the Wizard series by Swaggard or re-read DA's 2 cents ) while dollar-cost averagers over the long term are winners. Some of us - by nature, like to speculate and some of us win some and lose some and those of us who are really 'smart' make a lot of money and retire from speculative investment and join the a group of financially successfull coupons and dividends clippers while enjoying the finer things in life.
The point is this. RJ, if your are winning playing the gold market short 'good for you'. Don't call me a lunatic or fool for holding my long position in gold stks. Dig ? Thank you.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:54
- Byron -- History never repeats exactly. I just used '87 as an example. Who is to say WHOM will be the first to say,Enough is enough! One thing is for sure, something will break here. This 'alternate' trade policy using devaluations in place of tariffs will have as disastrous, if not more so, consequences than trade tariffs alone. 'They' are screwing with everyones 'money' here. This is what leads me to believe in the rise of gold. Hence my long term bullish outlook on the metals and commodities.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:50
nailz TED...BE CAREFUL !!!!>(TED...BE CAREFUL !!!!):
- TED...What is this about you trying to kill yer fool self ? Be careful!!!!! I think we need to rent a boat when I get there.....
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:49
Byron @ $13.00 Here, $13.00 There:>(@ $13.00 Here, $13.00 There:):
- Platinum for Oct ONLY up $13.00. ..Dow zeroing on zero.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:44
- Todays action in the Long Bond...
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:43
Byron: @ Poor Mark:>(@ Poor Mark:):
- Panda: Looking at the DBC quote the DM still getting creamed by the Dollar. When will the German Bear growl?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:36
- Rescue call received about the Dow. Rescue in progress...
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:36
Byron @ Moving In On The Close:>(@ Moving In On The Close:):
- Buy. Buy. By. Looks at those the Dow is going to do a Silky Sullivan on us.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:34
- Byron -- If anyone causes a Dollar problem now, it will look an awful lot like 1987 before the crack-up. Remember, interest rates on the long bond soared and there was a 'Dollar/DM problem'. If the Bonds tank, stocks will get hurt. If the dollar tanks, or even drops some, we get 'inflation', stocks get hurt again. If the Dollar gets too strong, what will the overseas Central Bankers do Stocks? How will our export industries respond? So many questions, so little time. :- ) )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:32
Byron @ The Weekend:>(@ The Weekend:):
- Panda: don't want to cause any undue worry over the weekend for the folks.... Hmmm, I wonder how close to 98 the XAU will close today. Got to keep the tension in the air.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:30
2 Rebuttal to Vieserre 12:12>(Rebuttal to Vieserre 12:12):
- Very nice post @12:12. A landmark. Since it is a landmark, it requires some response.
( 1 ) You say If I had the knowledge learned from the bears, I would have saved some money. What knowledge? Nobody has enough knowledge to predict the price of gold, a point I made recently. What knowledge have you garnered from the bears ( or others ) that would have caused you to invest better? Sir, we know in part, and we prophesy in part, but everybody's guessing in the short term ( and you obviously mean short term ) , _especially_ in gold.
( 2 ) You got a better understanding of the world about me from those with diverse viewpoints. Yes, emphatically yes. Agreed. Ditto.
( 3 ) I do not share the goldbug creed of evil conspiracy, armageddon, and distrust of government bordering on paranoia. Now please, Father Vieserre, isn't that a bit harsh, particularly when coming on the heels of your kind and gracious words for the astrologers, chartists, and tea leaf readers amongst us ( all of whom I view with utmost fondness and appreciation for their well-intended contributions, by the way ) ?
( 4 ) Furthermore, importantly, I wish to make clear I am not attacking you personally - but only the statements you have made and what they imply. Refreshing and right on. In short, NAYP ( not attacking you personally ) . A non-vitriol, skunk-free zone.
( 5 ) You imply those long on gold have experienced destruction as a result of this recent retrenchment, suggesting that a more balanced forum might have spared them. Frankly, aren't many in this for a much longer term, or as a hedge, and in either case not terribly disappointed or surprised by such reversals as we have had? And given the enormous number of variables, how can information gleaned here be credited directly with good fortune in the market? Does anyone really make significant short-term trades based on information gathered here? If so, I stand corrected.
( 6 ) Final point. I listen to the Baltimore Orioles. I like the announcer to attempt to call the game impartially, but when Ripken swats one off the fence, I like to think I hear a touch of heartfelt glee in his voice that is not present when a hated Yankee gets lucky. Admittedly, not all listeners agree. Similarly, on this forum, I think that there is a certain subtle camaraderie amongst those who, while looking for honest insights and unbiased information, hold unashamedly a fondness for precious metals as substance, saving, and symbol. I personally believe that _most_ of what is perceived as disparagement of the hated goldbears is offered in a playful and teasing spirit. Certainly we view these sorry, shortsighted creatures with a mixture of pity and affection! But I for one welcome them wholeheartedly into our midst.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:28
- Looks like the begining of a Dow rescue in progress. Stay tuned.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:27
Byron @ The Public Library:>(@ The Public Library:):
- Panda: Believe, starting today, Europe essential shuts down for the month of August. Could put a damper on things, but I also remember times when Rubin made some of his moves when the NY boys went to the beach for the holidays.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:25
pyramid (@nice day in the neighborhood)>((@nice day in the neighborhood)):
- nomercy: good observations in your 07:31 post. Keep up the good work.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:24
- Poorman -- The 'inflation' reality has to sink in! Why do you think Rubin whats a strong Dollar? So we can buy foreign goods cheap. Foreign countries devalue with respect to the Dollar. Then they can market their goods here in the U.S. Two problems though. They must accept the inflation inherent in the devaluation of their currency and we must accept the fact that our ( U.S. ) goods are too expensive for foreigners to buy. Thus we export our inflation and get a recession in the U.S. export sector. Such a deal!
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:20
Byron @ But What About Newmont:>(@ But What About Newmont:):
- George: Do you believe, looking at the chart, that Newmont has broken out. I need to do a little more exact work, but eyeballing the daily chart it looks as it has. Plan to check out the daily and weekly charts on the majors this weekend. On Newmont draw lines on previous highs and low on both the weekly and daily charts. Notice any breakouts
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:18
- Granted that we are in the summer doldrums, but I think much thought will be given to stocks this weekend by their owners. Magellan fund reported net outflows again. The Dow on a five minute chart looks like descending triangle. Although in the last few minutes, it seems to be trying to recover somewhat. It will be interesting to see if there is a last minute 'rescue' of the Dow. Bond action was something! Up 15.9 basis points in one day! Gee, if we get anymore good news, it just might kill us all! :- ) )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:15
Poorman @why cant gold be like platinum?>(@why cant gold be like platinum?):
- Will the day ever come that we will see Gold move like Platinum current is I'm tired of waiting!
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 15:12
Jack Just a feeling>(Just a feeling):
Found that I spent more time reading opinions that various posters have about each other, than what I came here too grasp in the first place.
Formerly, I read every post, now I skip through many.
Problem is that spending time at the cockfights detracts from reading a lot of the good info and news.
To all who spend their time providing infomation -much appreciation
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 14:59
George Cole XAU>(XAU):
- Byron: A valid XAU breakout should occur on high volume. I would be suspicious of low volume breakouts. Still think we will get such a breakout this month. But it probably is not imminent considering poor action of JSE and bullion's refusal ( so far ) to follow XAU higher.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 14:59
Bob @... RJ, put your handle on the line.>(@... RJ, put your handle on the line.):
- RJ: I lose my handle if gold drops below $313 this month otherwise you lose your handle. Deal ?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 14:54
- GEORGE COLE: Re your 14:15 That is the point I have been making with the D/G Ratio, that gold will outperform the Dow once we have confirmation that we are on the downside of the spike. All should note that my theory would be valid with gold at lower prices.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 14:54
- Vieserre @ 12:12. Excellent comments. When I first started reading Kitco forum a year ago I almost jumped into more gold stocks based on bullish opinions. Luckily for me the few bears who posted caused me to pause and not take action. Dr. Doom was finally run off.
I want to see all opinions. Will skip the Hepcat type since obviously a waste of time and irritation.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 14:52
Bob @....How you shorts doing ?>(@....How you shorts doing ?):
- Not too much volatility out there in gold. Is it getting hot in here or is it the weather ?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 14:41
Byron @ I'm Out Of Here:>(@ I'm Out Of Here:):
- Well, if everything fails, go to lunch. Back later.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 14:37
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- Byron -- ( 1 ) Yup, and ( 2 ) don't we all!
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 14:34
Byron @ I Don't Want To Wait>(@ I Don't Want To Wait):
- Eldorado: Does this mean I have to wait until next week? I want it all now!!! : )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 14:30
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- Byron -- Only in the P metals.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 14:23
Byron @ The Close:>(@ The Close:):
- Comex close coming up. Any bets on a strong close?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 14:17
Skylark Something to Think About>(Something to Think About):
- The XAU has not gone down with gold and it is now not going down with the DOW. And gold, for the first time in days appears to be firm at the close.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 14:15
George Cole thoughts>(thoughts):
- Although off a few bucks in recent days, bullion still acting very well considering the dollar's strength. And the North American gold stocks continue to act very nicely!. Now if only the JSE would join in.
VIESERRE; Agree with the substance of your post, but not with its vehemence.
I find it interesting that the bears have become much more numerous and aggressive now that bullion is in the dumps, the bad news is out, and everybody knows it is going lower. There does come a point where all the bad news and potential bad news has been discounted.
It is my feeling that market reaction to news tells us more about where gold and gold stocks are going than any guru, whether bull or bear. This has been uniformly bad since the bear began 18 months ago, but has improved vastly in recent weeks.
Mike Sheller: You are absolutely correct that gold is only a good investment ( as opposed to a trade ) on rare occasions. Common stocks generally are much better investments. That said, we now appear to at one of those rare points in financial history where gold has the potential to vastly outperform over the next few years.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 14:12
Byron @ Heading Towards the Comex Turn:>(@ Heading Towards the Comex Turn:):
- Palladium at the limit by 6. XAU and HUI fading a tad. The Dow doing a Silky Sullivan on us. Way back there. Hope it doesn't close like Silky.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 14:03
Byron @ The Call:>(@ The Call:):
- Platinum way out in front, follwed by palladium, xau,hui,and lagging far behind the Dow Dog and Treasury Notes, Bills and Bonds. : )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 13:54
Byron @ The Start:>(@ The Start:):
- And their off and running. : )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 13:47
Byron @ Get Ready, Get Set,....>(@ Get Ready, Get Set,....):
- XAU's nose back at the 98 point line at 97.96
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 13:45
- Next time Duh Bears get it around here for expressing their opinions lets all remember not only the Puetz post but also Nick's work for providing a clear context for it.
In the meantime enough revelations in my view for quite a while.
The TSE is closed on Monday.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 13:43
GVC @montly xau>(@montly xau):
- Monthly XAU w/bollinger bands courtesy, mr. Ron Jett,:
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 13:29
- Vieserre: ( @12:12 ) Bravo ! One of the fairest and most statesmanlike posts it has been my pleasure to read on this forum.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 13:23
Who Cares? Correction>(Correction):
That's http://www.us.net/softwar. Sorry, I type software
too much. : )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 13:21
Who Cares? Voodoo>(Voodoo):
Hey, I *know* I was supposed to do a knee-jerk on this, but what
the hell, I will anyway. : )
Vieserre - goldbug creed of...
evil conspiracy - _Waco: Rules of Engagement_. Do a search.
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov - visit it,
and compare it to published debt numbers. Then,
do an in-depth exploration and discover when
the numbers went bogus - 1987. Coincidence?
Then, do more in-depth searching and discover
how the debt is now distributed into T-bills,
notes, and bonds, and wonder why noone said
anything. : )
Then visit http://www.us.net/software, and
ponder today's latest revelation of yet
another Clinton/Commerce department sell-out
to the Chinese, and then wonder, LOUDLY, why
none of this is on ABC, CBS, or NBC.
Do I need to mention Gulf War syndrome?
Armaggedon - Armaggedon isn't necesary. All that's necessary
is for the SAME PERCENTAGE of cash that went into
gold in 1982, go into gold today. I would be quite
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 13:06
- So, what do you think? Based on Europe's close, NY Spot gold should close
at 321. Today. 8/1/97
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 12:51
Mike Sheller @the future>(@the future):
- Sorry, I don't know the astrologer Richard Nolle, or anything about him. DAVID: If one believes gold is going into the thousands of dollars in the early part of the next century ( as I confess I do ) then buying it now IS the thing to do, even if one has to buy and hold. It would be like buying the Dow or S&P at the first shot in the Gulf War. Not too bad a play, I'd say. Sure, keep some powder dry for in and out and intermediate trading, etc, etc. Gotta have some diversity in the life. But a chunk of dough in bullion or some gold shares NOW would prove to be very prescient and wise indeed if such extreme assumptions were to come true. So it does make sense, for those who believe in a fresh wave up for gold in the next few years, to lay in some now and over the next several months, rather than forego the big bucks and start chasing it at 600, or 895, or 1500. The point with gold is that it is a marvelous play only at certain junctures. The price action of the last 20 years in the metal has clearly demonstrated that for both bulls AND bears in gold. The math is really quite simple, too. In 1972 $42 dollar gold went to 850 in eight years. What was that? 20 times?! It don't take many multiples of 300 to get a conservative price for gold in the thousands, in just a few years.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 12:33
EB FWIW...skip it if you are unsuspecting...or a sheep driven to the slaughter...>(FWIW...skip it if you are unsuspecting...or a sheep driven to the slaughter...):
- Puetz 21:53 - Have you ever written a post and 'sent' it to the group and then after you read it a few times ( having a chance to 'savor' the response and ponder your thoughts ) wish that you had NOT sent it? I have...and I probably do it daily. Well, I am still in shock that a 'published' person of your caliber actually wrote 21:53. Three paragraphs that change a persons perception of another...
My answer to the first paragraph is YES...but that is a philisophical question and this is a gold forum.
I was going to go on about your second and third paragraph but, as RJ had stated, it speaks volumes and you have had ample time to reflect.
I will continue to read your very informative and valuable posts regardless. Thanks in advance. ok...one more thing...You are Assuming quite a bit and making LARGE speculations to the 'unsuspecting sheep' that gold will rise to make all who 'believe' Rich. Please don't 'lie' to me and don't tell me any 'truths' either.
Speed 23:17 - Correct...buyer beware...I, for one, will not follow ANYONE off a cliff unless I have tested the parachute myself!
Gunrunner 15:46 - Thanks. And I think that was Maslow's hierarchy of self-actualization. No? anyway, I assume if I need to purchase a firearm that I can ask you. If you need questions about eyeglass spectacles please direct questions my way email@example.com
D.A. - all bets are OFF ( figuratively speaking of course ) on DM. Those German buggers should get control of the spiral...the trend is your friend...i guess. Still w/w though.
DJ 18:04 - The crowd was going to let you figure it out on your own ( see...this is not a cruel bunch after all ) .
Platinum - 435.00 ( PLV7 ) go baby...GO!
EB - AWAY!!!$$$ :- ) )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 12:28
- Well, it seems as though reality is intruding in to the market. If the long bond continued its descent, would we have wound up with the scenario of short rates at, or higher than long rates? Or would this have forced short rates lower? A question not worth pondering at the moment. It seems as though RR got what he wanted, a stronger Dollar. Now, let's see if that's what he really wanted! Remember, be careful for what you wish, you may get it! :- ) )
So, when do the exporters in this country start screaming? When do the Europeans and Asians start making noises about 'importing' inflation from the U.S.? When will the masses recognize the role of GOLD? When will the masses recognize that stocks don't do well during inflationary times? When will the bubble spring a leak too big to be patched over by the 'crash protection team'? So many questions, so little time.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 12:25
- Brazil Stocks down 4.16%
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 12:22
DJ Go RSA!!>(Go RSA!!):
- George Cole - I decided long ago to invest in RSA stocks rather than those in N.America, as the correlation between the NA mining stocks and the general market seemed way too high. I concluded they could get severely hit if the general market tanked. Of course I got bit by the other snake, the fact that RSA stocks are more affected by falling gold price.
I have, of course, noticed the lack of response of the RSA stocks to the rallies in gold. I totally agree that until these start to move, no upward trend in gold is confirmed. This tends to support RJ's views, at least for the short term.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 12:19
oldhand adjusted mutual fund charts>(adjusted mutual fund charts):
- All: Finally, historical mutual fund charts are available where adjustments are made for distributions. Don't know when it began but it is a service long overdue ( and free ) . If interested, go to
and key in any mutual fund symbol. Stock charts are also provided.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 12:12
Vieserre The Forum is Better For It>(The Forum is Better For It):
- PUETZ: I rarely take heated exception to any post, even Hepcat's, for if it is not directed at me, I simply do not read it. But I do find your recent post on the Kitco balance extremely offensive. The reason is it clearly has the intended goal of shutting off debate and to encourage posts only by those who adhere to your beliefs, to which you apparently are a prisoner. The rewarding aspect of this forum is that so many parties come with different approaches to the market. Mike Sheller with astrology, Aurophile with the long term wave, Donald with a gold/stock ratio, Milhouse on the role of money, BB Fisher with his charts, RJ with a disciplined philosophical approach, D.A. with a disciplined programed approach, George based on experience, Ted as a practical observer, Glenn from the view of a trader, yours on deflation, and many others who I do not mention by oversight but by space limitations. Although I do not agree with all of their views, including yours, this does not mean I do not respect them and have not gained valuable knowledge that has not benefited me in the market as well as having a better understanding of the world about me. It is for the reader to ferret out what to believe or not to believe and not what is to decided for him by the messiahs among us.
If there was such a sure thing as gold going substantially higher as you insist, gold simply would not be at the price it is. Whether you like it or not, RJ, NotaGoldbug, Hepcat and other shorts, for whatever reason, have been correctly calling the direction of price. And you, as well as myself, have been dead wrong. And if I had the knowledge which I learned from them earlier, I may have saved some losses which I sustained in this decline.
When I first came on to this site, it was much as you now apparently desire. Anyone who advocated taking a short position was critized by the silent majority as a fool and deemed a pariah. And as a result, it was destructive to the participants since it only reinforced their own viewpoints, even though as it turned out were decidedly wrong. And many were uncomfortable posting, including myself, for although I was long on the market I do not share the goldbug creed of evil conspiracy, armageddon, and distrust of government bordering on paranoia.
Now there is a better balance of viewpoints and this forum is the better for it. It is because I would dislike to see it revert back to its former standard that I am making this posting even though it is distasteful for me to do so and it is redundant of others. Furthermore, importantly, I wish to make clear I am not attacking you personally - but only the statements you have made and what they imply.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 12:09
- TED: Good Morning, at least here it is, and thanks for the comment.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 12:01
- The Silent Majority post I was commenting on was from 13:34 yesterday 7-31 and I should not have used quotes around discussion group as that was the sense of the next statement and not a quote of it.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 12:00
- Boy, I step out for a while and the next thing you know... we're limit up in PA!
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 11:54
- Please note, I found the rash comment by Silent Majority implying that RJ should be investigated by the authorities one of the most digusting and asinine things I have ever read on Kitco. Especially as the obvious answer is in your own next statement, this is a discussion group. And so it is, is RJ sending you a BILL or what? Many times RJ has stated that his opinions/views are just that. And just for the record, I dislike posters who use different handles to post venomous attacks. For a joke in good fun I suppose it is OK but otherwise it is just plain cowardly.
In my opinion, which is not meant as marketing advice, and is admittedly worth only its price, an apology for that rash statement is required.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 11:43
George Cole JSE>(JSE):
- Dow off 58. October gold off 50 cents, XAU down 0.4%.
North American gold stocks still acting very well in the face of soft bullion. But SA gold stocks not keeping up. JSE gold index still very weak.
Until the JSE starts to act considerably better, there will be no upside breakout in gold. A bull market in gold just can't happen without strong SA participation. But when the JSE starts to follow the North Americans higher with conviction the gold bull will either be underway or just around the corner.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 11:35
- D.A.- thanks for the silver info, now if we could get ARZ up off the floor.
Does anyone know how to decipher the news article on Crystallex?
What the hell did they say?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 11:31
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters):
- David, The time is by 2005 could be alot sooner than later. Upside outways downside in all respect in the near term and long. Real estate is my #1 investment for now till 1999. All hard assets will do wonderfully going into the next mellennium whether it be land, antiques, oil you name it and it will make money.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 11:25
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- Goldfinger -- Thanks. Much appreciated.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 11:21
Question for Sheller @stars>(@stars):
- Do you know of an astrologer Richard Nolle? He actually predicted a downturn in equities around Aug. 1st ( or Aug. 17th ) ?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 11:07
- Welcome to our forum Front...um I mean David!...Off ta the local sawmill ta get some lumber fer the new deck...
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 10:58
vronsky FOR SHORT-TERM STOCK MARKET TRADERS - July 30 Report>(FOR SHORT-TERM STOCK MARKET TRADERS - July 30 Report):
- CNBC analyst celebrity predicts a sharp decline in stocks within next 60 days - although he is bullish longer-term. See INGER LETTER FORECAST. Must RELOAD Gold Digest page:
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 10:54
- bw- I share your concern about scandals in government. I get fustrated at the apparant lack of concern, both from the general public and from Kitcoites. Why should anyone believe anything coming out of a government press release? The White House found details of ( Mr. Woo's? ) visits the day after testimony on him ended, just sitting in a box,no less, like some billing records I know of. I'm more concerned at the willingness of eveyone to laugh this method of disclosure off than I am of the records themselves. Fred Thompson, like many before him, complain that the White House is not acting in good faith. What do they expect? Not many people provide criminal evidence against themselves in good faith! It seems to me that there is ( another ) flaw in our democracy - the majority rules- even if it invovles illegalities. The majority in this case supports the Boy President- God help us all.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 10:50
Front (David) Goldfinger, ALL>(Goldfinger, ALL):
All: I've done searches to see if there were any notes sent my way and am seeming to find a greater amount of front month etcs. and it's getting annoying and time wasting. In order to stop the drudgery, I'm changing my handle to DAVID That's it...done
Goldfinger: What are you going to invest in for the next 7 years till 2005 comes along? Or are you a buy and hold type of investor?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 10:41
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters):
- eldorado, see no more caps. I apologize, did not realize it was annoying.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 10:34
Curious - exasper @ted>(@ted):
- gklfdgaslgj @ 09:31 -
Let me help you out here:
dirivitive = derivative
volitility = volatility
asummed = assumed ( you got 1 out of 2 here )
gklfdgaslgj = gkfldgsalgj ( at least spell your own name correctly ! ) ( : ) )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 10:26
vronsky Goldbugs LAST WEEKLY COMMENT ON SILVER STOCKS>(Goldbugs LAST WEEKLY COMMENT ON SILVER STOCKS):
- In light of SILVER’s surge in price, it’s relevant to read “Silver Stocks, there ain’t too many.” Reviews Pan Am Silver, Silver Standard, Int’l Avino, United Kino & Sunshine, others::
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 10:24
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- Goldfinger -- If you wouldn't mind toooooomuch, would you turn your CAPS off when you post! I have two choices when you post with ALL CAPS ( SHOUTING ) . That is to either skip your post or to get out of my chair and stand WAY back to read it.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 10:21
- NAPM report is driven everything down...XAU now down .67 and Long Bond down a full point...It's still a beautiful day on the ocean though...DOW down 107...
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 10:19
GOLDFINGER ALL THAT GLITTERS>(ALL THAT GLITTERS):
- GEORGE COLE, YOUR ABSOLUTLEY RIGHT. WHEN THE PAPER CHASERS AND STOCK MARKET PUNDITS COME HOME TO ROOST GOLD WILL RISE. IT'S THE YEAR 2005 AND GOLDS TRADING AT $3000 OZ. THATS A MELT UP. CRB AT 800. THE NON BELIEVERS OF THIS SCENERIO ARE OUT THERE IN BIG NUMBERS THATS WHY I'M SO BULLISH. THE STOCK MARKET LEFT A LOT OF NON BELIEVERS BEHIND AND THE NEXT TIME AROUND SO WILL HARD ASSETS.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 10:17
- It's early my friend....DOW down 101....Whoa Nelly....
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 10:15
Oliver @Is Dow Panicked?>(@Is Dow Panicked?):
- Falling Down like a rock!
Where are the Buy on the DIPS..?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 10:12
- Dow now down 64....thanks to NAPM report!
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 10:08
Ted @NAPM report>(@NAPM report):
- NAPM report came in 58.6 with the preliminary est. @ 56....and inflation index higher than expected too...dow turned around from + to down 41..That was quick!
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 09:52
George cole all news is good news>(all news is good news):
- Global stock markets just love the surging dollar. Markets assume a higher dollar will stimulate foreign economies without boosting inflation. At home, the surging greenback is sucking more and more foreign capital into our hugely bloated financial markets. A perfect world for the paperhangers! But when global markets stop surging on dollar strength, watch out below.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 09:44
- MoreGold -- The oil stocks fate is tied to the Dows' fate. Unless, something spectacular happens to the price of oil. As for the price of crude itself... Political ramafications aside ( ! ) , it is a commodity and commodities are out of favor for the moment. However, if the turmoil in the MidEast escalates beyond what we have seen in the last few days, all bets are off. We now have Mid Easterners being accused of trying to bomb the New York subway. It's all, only a matter of time, or is it timing?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 09:31
gklfdgaslgj gkfagjqejt/[h51gad, to rkw[topoutr ogiodjt[r owjgopktqet>(gkfagjqejt/[h51gad, to rkw[topoutr ogiodjt[r owjgopktqet):
- Y2K problem;
here's another one. In the dirivitives market, all calculations are made by computers using an asummed implied volitility. these assumed volitilities will be grossly incorrect when data errors start entering any of the multiple parties that are in the out in cyber space.
Dirivitives are so invasive these days that even paper that doesn't rate the respect of a dirivitive is considered less risky than a dirivitive.
In the year 1900 a US dollar bill was a dirivitive; it was a dirivitive of gold...an IOU. Today, it's not even that. What does this mean for those who plan on going into cash for safety?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 09:26
- Any opinions on Oil. Does no inflation mean oil will stay steady?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 09:25
panda @Contrary opinion!>(@Contrary opinion!):
- Employees are getting paid more! Most are getting stock/ stock options. As was pointed out in this forum, people are receiving stock in lieu of cash. What most are doing with these 'bonus checks', seems to be ( from what I've seen ) cashing them in as soon as they get them! At least that what I see in the High Tech industry...
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 09:21
- Good morning TED! The stock bull chugs on! I wonder, when will the economy run out of people to employ? I thought the six basis point jump in bonds was cute this morning. Clearly, the expectation is that inflation is dead and stocks will go up because interest rates are going down. I wonder when the surprise of lower earnings will rear its ugly head?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 09:08
Ted @It's early folks>(@It's early folks):
- Comex report: Gold up .90; Silver down 3 cents; and Platinum up 3.50...
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 09:04
- Senator: Nope,didn't get a metal detector yet but I'm gettin closer to buying one....Could be a VOLATILE day and the markets are really jumping around so far this mornin....Glad I'm in stox as well as Gold!...the trend is my friend....so far!...Sunny with a CALM seabreeze today but why the hell couldn't it have been calm yesterday when I almost went under..
glub...glub....S+P futures up .15...
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 08:55
- Donald - just read the Barrons article on deflation at your prompting. The 2 things which struck me as I was reading it were :
- this guy seems to spend a lot of time gazing at charts and very little time trying to understand the reasons behind the inter-related movements in inflation rates, stock prices and bond yields during different periods. This may be doing him an injustice, but he doesn't seem to understand why everything suddenly changed in the 1970s and he also appears unaware of the true meanings of the terms inflation and deflation
- he considers Alan Greenspan to be all powerful, with our economic future totally dependant on Greenspan's ability to successfully land the economy
I'm often very unimpressed by the articles in Barrons as they seldom deal thoughtfully with the real issues and often contain inaccuracies or half truths. Although I don't agree with the conclusions drawn by yourself and Steve Puetz regarding a deflationary future, your arguments as put forward on this forum contain infinitely more sense than anything I've read in Barrons.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 08:53
Senator Blutarsky retired>(retired):
TED--Good morning. Point well taken about the stock market. It is my guess that gold investments will outperform the Dow for the remainder of the century. BTW did you ever get one of them coin detectors?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 08:40
- EBN Gold+Silver dropped within minutes of employment report being released....S+P futures down 3.80...
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 08:37
- Weekly hours declined....and pay per hour also declined so not as bad as at first glance....Long Bond up 8 ticks....Up is down!...most of the gains were in the service sector and not manufacturing...Talkin heads sayin this is a new era...LB up 6 ticks....the trend is my friend!..
Whoops,Long bond down 11 ticks....
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 08:36
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- Senator Blutarsky -- Yes, as usual, gold is cheap. As usual, that doesn't mean that it can't or won't get a bit cheaper. That also doesn't mean that it will. A few think it'll get cheaper. A few don't. Most don't know. I'll only say that I believe it is much much closer to a bottom than any kind of top!
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 08:30
- Tort: Top of the mornin to ya...and good joke!....Mornin Panda!..and now for the report we've all been waiting for....Latest consenus est. for the number of jobs created is 190,000 jobs ( employment report ) and the real ( ? ) number of jobs created is 316,000 jobs...WOW! much bigger than expected and watch out bond bulls!
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 08:18
- Check out the market snapshot comments at DBC before they change the page. IT IS WORTH READING!
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 08:17
Tortfeasor Joke of the Morning>(Joke of the Morning):
- Good morning all. It is in fact Friday and that is good news indeed. Good morning Ted--special D for you. Here's my paltry offering for the morning. I may have posted it before but if I have I have forgotten and I hope you have too.
This man was painting the church one Saturday to get it nice
and spiffy for services on Sunday. He had two sides of the
church done when he realized that he didn't have quite enough
paint to finish. Since he was many miles from where he could
buy more paint and he was running out of time, he decided to
thin the paint down to have enough to finish the job. After
finishing the third wall, he realized he had to thin the paint
even more to make it stretch. He finally finished and stood
back to admire his work when it started to rain. He watched
in dismay while the paint ran down the windows and exposed
the old color on the last two walls he had painted. The pastor
came outside to see what was going on and saw the look of
disappointment on the man's face. The man confessed what
he had done to make the paint last.
The pastor, wanting to ease the man's burden, said, Then
repaint, and thin no more.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 08:02
- Brazil falls to 17th place in Most Corrupt Country rankings.
Two bids received for Argentina Postal Service ( scroll down for story )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 08:01
- Mornin Blutarsky....Yeah,I'd say it's cheap,but is the Dow...The Dow had its best month EVER in July and is now up 27.5% for the year...One half hour to the employment report!
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 07:56
- Yahoo shows Russia stocks down over 99%. Truth or typo
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 07:48
- NOMERCY: Yes. I read all that stuff too and wonder when it will happen. The problem is that we are in a mania. It is a form of collective mental illness. In crowd psychology people do not think rationally. They look at their neighbor who lives next door, he is buying, everybody at the office is buying, its all over the TV, the business section, often the front page of the newspaper. They are compelled to go along with the crowd. Its not easy for me, and I suspect for most of us at the Kitco site, to be the oddballs who don't get the New Era stuff. We all wonder if it is us who are wrong and they are right. History says it will end in a disaster. Not just for the United States but for the entire world. After it is over for them it could be bad for those of us who are the survivors. They will suspect that we are some sort of a conspiracy who made it happen. If we had been on gold all along things wouldn't have been able to get this far out of whack. Hold on tight.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 07:48
- China envoy in HK told London stop meddling
I guess they think everybody is meddling...
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 07:44
nomercy Electronic glitch?>(Electronic glitch?):
- Electronic glitch sends Tokyo stocks tumbling
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 07:31
nomercy SEC Warning Investors not ready>(SEC Warning Investors not ready):
- Donald, any idea as to what's going on?
Time Magazine - We're ready for a disaster, article
Reuters- SEC Warning Investors not ready
Rubin - We still want to see a strong dollar ( Yen 118+, German Mark 184+ Asian currencies devaluations 5-25% ) ?
Greenspan - Dec'96/March/April '97 - Markets irrational --July - everything is humming
Hashimoto - sell bonds buy gold
China - trade surplus widening - want concessions ( Taiwan? )
Asia economies - debt defaults growing
Brazil - Central bank chief & aide replaced
Australia - selling gold, and making outrageous comments of gold losing its monetary role
Republicans & Democrats ( agree? ) on budget
Bears more vociferous at Kitco - 'short' gold?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 07:30
Senator Blutarsky retired>(retired):
What's all this FLATION sh**?! Is gold cheap or ain't it!?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 07:26
- MIKE SHELLER: In Turjghjik the accent is ALWAYS on the second j. I thought everyone knew that.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 07:16
- MILHOUSE: Your 6:24 is a wonderful analogy. Not just because it supports my point of view but because it is the kind of message that an ordinary citizen can understand. Did you read Barron's last week? There was an economist who was supporting deflation as an outcome. I could not tell that by reading his evidence, I only knew it because he said it in plain English at the end.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 06:49
Mike Sheller Friday morning @ the charts>(Friday morning @ the charts):
- JGKJAL ( I hope I'm pronouncing that right ) : If you don't mind me chiming in on your earlier thought, a close above 344 would be somewhat portentious indeed. The current breakdown in gold below the roughly 340 level has taken price under the long-term support line connecting the 85 and 93 bottoms. This could be a hook - the more and more prevalent ploy of dealers and some market participants to take assets below recognized support levels and trendlines, etc. So many people are technical analysts or chart followers these days, that there are all kinds of ways to get cheap stock out of them, especially with the more obscure NASDAQ issues. Anyhow, the old support becomes new resistance until proven otherwise. So that 340 level becomes somewhat of a tough ceiling above gold, not just as a short term phenomenon, but longterm as well. There is currently room on the weekly & daily charts for a nearby plunge to 307 - 310. A rally ABOVE 344 would take the gold price out of the rather narrow down channel it has been in since early '96. More importantly, though, it would pop it back above the longterm support since 85 and that might indicate momentum for this weakness is dissipating rapidly. By the way, current daily price chart pattern VERY reminiscent of the '85 bottom. Hope I havemn't confused anyone by combining short and longterm factors. I myself have too much to handle in other areas of my life these days to be in the futures market ( which I love, but it takes a full time participation and dedication ) . However, I still stand by the VERY long term approach of steadily accumulating bullion coins. Simple, quiet, and no need for daily angst. Dont dollar cost average stocks. Dollar cost average gold. Gold shares are also at a level where proceeds from sales of other kinds of shares should find their way into them as well. The angle of acceleration of this stock market simply cannot continue much longer, yet gold has always run for at least a few months before a market top. This situation is historically impressive by any measurement.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 06:34
George Cole thoughts>(thoughts):
- Foreign stock markets soft this morning; dollar strong.
DA; RE: home prices. The Realtor's median sales price data tend to overstate housing inflation when the market is strong. During such periods the median price generally rises sharply because of both higher costs and the fact that people tend to buy more expensive homes in good times. So the median quality and size are rising. Thai said, the official government statistics almost certainly understate housing inflation, but not by as much as you imply.
I dare say that very few people who go the supermarket every week buy the inflation is dead mantra being preached so loudly now.
Puetz; I couldn't disagree more strongly with RJ, but he has as much right to be here as anyone else. If you don't like what he has to say, do not read his posts.
GOLDFINGER: I am as bullish as anybody on gold longer-term, but I find it hard to imagine we are due for a quick melt-up. I do think the primary trend is changing from bear to bull, and we will see the $400 line in the sand taken out decisively. But probably not until 1998 when all will know that the great paper bull is over NEVER TO RETURN. I hope you are correct, but the odds seem small to me barring some unimaginable catastrophe.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 06:24
Milhouse If pounds were dollars>(If pounds were dollars):
What if pounds ( the measure of weight ) were similar in nature to dollars ? Let’s say you have been monitoring your weight for the last 25 years. The first time you weighed yourself was in January 1972 when the reading on the scale said 170 lb. You were in pretty good shape and this was a reasonable weight for someone of your height. However, despite the fact that you were watching what you were eating and getting regular exercise, each month you weighed yourself you were, according to the scales, slightly heavier than the month before. By January 1976 you were weighing in at a very chunky 260 lb, even though you still felt the same as you did in 1972. In fact, there was also no noticeable change in your appearance despite the extra 90 lbs. Depressed by this weight gain and the election of Jimmy Carter, you decided to stop weighing yourself. The depression remained for several years, until in 1983, after 3 years of Reaganomics and with an economy obviously on the way up, you decided to weigh yourself again. After all, you were feeling great ! You couldn't find your old scales so you purchased a new set . You hopped on to the new scales with confidence, expecting to see your reward for what you believed to be a healthy life style. At first you didn't believe what you saw. There must be some mistake - you could not possibly weigh 540 lbs ! You returned the scales to the local store and extracted a full cash refund from the bewildered shopkeeper. You knew the scales must have been faulty and anyway the alternative was far too terrifying to even consider. More years pass. You have survived a stock market crash and one full term of Bill Clinton’s presidency, and you now feel strong enough to be able to cope with any manner of adversity. It is January 1997, and you do what you had sworn never to do again - you purchase a new set of scales and weigh yourself. Later that day the doctor tells you not to worry - he assures you that you are in pretty good shape and that 1150 lbs is a reasonable weight for someone of your height.
One of the fundamental problems these days is that economic measurement is nearly always carried out using units which are constantly varying, whether these units be dollars or any other national currency. This often leads to a complete distortion of the facts. For example, others on this forum ( Donald, Aurophile, BB Fisher ) have pointed out that the stock market may have been higher in 1966 than it is today if you use a constant unit of measurement such as gold. Another example is the supposed US trade deficit with Japan. Measuring this imbalance in terms of quantity of goods, as opposed to quantity of dollars, paints a totally different picture.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 06:24
Who Cares? Flame on!>(Flame on!):
So. Japan is finally flaming on. Cool.
Will Hashimoto survive re-entry?
Will U.S. bonds burst in flame when Japan, Inc. hits the atmosphere?
I heard somebody say.... BURN, BABY, BURN!!!!
1 + 1 always equals 2. Sometimes it takes awhile, though.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 06:22
- Mooney ( 2;56 ) Thanks my friend!...Closest I've ever come to cashin it in and while it was a rush,I don't know if I want to repeat that experience at least for another week or so anyway....Ya only go around ONCE!
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 06:22
Mike Sheller Pass the Chicken Paprikash>(Pass the Chicken Paprikash):
- RJ: Re your biblical 3:01: In Hungary, squishing goulashes might indicate too much gravy and not enough beef, potatoes, and paprika. Check that recipe. ( $- ) )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 06:15
- My ISP or the Web is like molasses today. I will just summarize three items from Japan. Japanese new housing starts down 11%, new car sales down 10%, stocks down 527 overnight.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 06:05
- Same pattern for gold in Asian trading as yesterday as it started off in the minus column and is now up .60....Another sunny day here and the drought continues!...
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 05:55
- A variety of stories about Thailand and the aftermath of the Bhat devaluation. Increases in fuel prices, IMF demands that the VAT tax be raised 30% before assistance, Requests for govt. assistance from telecommunications and paper making industries. Deja Vu? ( This is today news. The date error is the publishers )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 05:28
- STEVE: Your 21:53 post reminded me that we are all Barts' guests. Thanks for speaking out about how guests should speak to one another.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 05:15
- MIKE SHELLER: Your Jul 31 23:11 says it all. We should take what we can from what is posted here and not get upset when we disagree with something. Anyway, you know what Keats said about the long run.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 03:27
Who Cares? RJ cares too much. :)>(RJ cares too much. :)):
Mondo post, RJ. One nice thing about the Net, it's got this way
of *really* kicking your ass emotionally when you first confront
it. : )
You take it too seriously, but I realized that the great majority
of posters here haven't participated in the real Net, either. Not
that it matters. It's just kind of odd to find such an island
of.. well, emotional reaction. It's pretty hard to get the type
of reaction that Hepcat got in any of the political newsgroups.
To set the record straight - I also like to poke and prod at
inconsistent belief systems. I no longer doubt, for one second,
that conspiracies exist; in fact, they *permeate* the modern
world. It's nice to see you acknowledge both sides of the eagle. : )
To wit, and to those who doubt ( i.e. have been brainwashed into
knee-jerk denial, just I was : ) ) -
Sit down and create a clear, concise definition of
conspiracy. Here's the one that I get out my
a ) Must have 2 or more parties
b ) Must involved an exchange of information : )
( oops, there's that dang unquantifiable
factor again )
c ) Must involved a THIRD party who is denied
participation in the information exchange
d ) The original two parties must act on the
belief that they can benefit ( profit ) from
the ignorance of the third party.
Try using THAT definiton on your employees or your wife. : )
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 03:26
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- IMHO, silver is primed to make a 20 cent move up if it sees ANY higher price than it had Thursday! Question now is, will it?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 03:18
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- Mooney -- I too have a line on my chart at next Tuesday pointing to a short term turning point in gold. I believe it'll fall until then, but that is of course presuming it doesn't cross above resistance somehow and makes a top then. Either way, it should be a short term turning point day, whatever the price becomes. Could be a 'bit' volatile!
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 03:12
Who Cares? Who really cares?>(Who really cares?):
Puetz was a *tad* harsh on RJ. Me, I think RJ's time horizon is
clearly implied in his postings. As is his leveraging. : )
I just think he's not made a good risk assessment. ; )
Re: a previous comment on this era of boundless prosperity -
Somebody, somewhere, could probably make a damn good case that
the post-Civil War was *substantially* more prosperous in terms
of material goods.
The biggest thing that bothers me, an information industry
participant, is the hue and cry I hear from those outside the
industry. I mean, if an IS PROJECT MANAGER can't make accurate
estimates about the TRUE VALUE AND PRICE of information, what
on EARTH are traders on Wall Street doing, believing they
can accurately assess the information future, value or impact?
The Industrial Revolution was quantifiable. The Information Age
is not. It's not even close yet. Anybody managing IS projects
KNOWS this. The bullish stampeders do not.
This bothers me far more than RJ's time horizon, Hepcat's postings,
drops ( or rises in gold, since that means I buy less : ) ) , or
my computer's C key.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 03:02
Speed @ 23:17--Well said.That sums up my entire
investment philosophy with respect to gold.I had already decided upon this course of action prior to my arrival at Kitco.It is my belief that gold will prove to be the most profitable investment between now and the year 2000.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 03:01
Puetz @ 21:53
I think I’ll let your post stand as it is. It speaks volumes
Gunrunner @ 15:46
You are a warrior for the working day.
SILENT MAJORITY @ 13:34
Thank you for illustrating the fact that some people don’t see reality, they only see what they want to see. You summarize my earlier post 180 degrees from my stated positions. I write - I wish to put no spin whatsoever on the bull/bear picture of gold. I simply report what is and trade accordingly. And - My opinions on the current state of the gold market hurt no one. I report my trading strategies but advise no one to follow.
- However, you respond with - RJ seems to be saying that anyone in disagreement with him belongs to the intellectually disadvangesd [sic] group known in some circles as the Ignoratti. Is he the owner of truth? And - Any registered investment advisor who would dictate his short-term trading practices to the Kitco public - without knowing the investment objectives and risk tolerance of each individual - would necessarily be subject to investigation by the authorities. We are here to learn from one another - and not to dictate or impose our opinion.
Do you read all words through these same obviously distorted lenses? Do you claim sunshine when rain is washing down your neck, and your goulashes go squish, squish, squish? If you would represent a person’s position, do it accurately or keep SILENT, Mr. MAJORITY. Well, there is a third option: You could be wrong at the top of your voice. You can shout your inaccuracies from the rooftops. But I predict that you will do these things from the shadows. Just who is SILENT MAJORITY? And where can you be contacted? What information have you shared to achieve the lofty goals you pontificate? I am always suspicious of those who claim to speak for the MAJORITY; it has been my experience that those that do are blind to all but there own agenda.
Alas, I am no registered investment advisor as you would have me be. I am just a lowly gold peddler who is on a very profitable streak that…… let me see……. has been on a very consistent winning streak ever since this bear market started about 18 months ago. What you call, Any registered investment advisor who would dictate his short-term trading practices to the Kitco public I would call a professional who would share his thoughts and opinions, with no hope of private gain, other than the knowledge I too can gain from the other professionals, and private investors alike, who know and live these markets. For it is this group that has a lot more than ego riding on the line, they have cash, hard earned cash, which they put at risk, and desire the best and most accurate information possible with which they might temper that risk. Mr. SILENT, I encourage you to ignore all that I write and follow your own course. I have spent enough effort on you. You will no doubt appear in some future anonymous incarnation, but I believe I will recognize your bend.
Who Cares @ 13:11
You make an entirely valid point. I do believe that there are those who have a vested interest in promoting a negative view of gold. I make my living discerning whether it is the pros or the cons that are at the helm. I then place my trades accordingly. I will say again, I don’t care where it goes. Up, down, its all the same to me. Yes I hold lots-o-gold shorts now. I also have these clients hedged very nicely in long silver and long platinum. Let gold turn around and run up, I wish it would. I will make three times more on my longs than I loose on my shorts. That is the beautiful thing about the current market. Silver is scraping the bottom, and there isn’t enough platinum aboveground to meet demand. Gold NEVER outperforms silver and platinum in a bull market, NEVER. I have the added advantage of a concerted effort by CBs and others to drive the price of gold lower. There is no effort to do the same with silver and platinum. Silver is going on its own merrily manipulated way as it always does. Platinum is on its way to the moon, and it might stay there awhile, at least until the higher prices encourage increased production.
DJ @ 12:38
I agree. Gold will play an important role in the future. Many of my clients are adding physical platinum to their holdings to compliment their gold. Platinum Maple Leafs are non-reportable and available from the same people who sold you your gold. Thanks for a kind word. I sometimes wonder if its worth the effort, there are many other things I could be doing.
So'Ham ( ( Ego ) ) : @ 12:10
Wiser words have yet to be written at this group! Which is more important, making money or being right? You will always do well if you recognize a bad trade and cut you losses early. Let the die hards go down with the ship. Gotta’ bad trade? On the wrong side of the market? OK, it happens….. Take your small loss, and get on the right side of the market. The market will do what it will, regardless of anyone’s desire that it would do otherwise.
Thank you for cutting through the BS and bringing to the forefront, this eternal truth.
D. A. @ 12:00
I will concede that Even if the Russian CB's keep just a single ton this will be more bullish than had they done nothing at all. My point was to show an example of the type of positive spin that is often put on such non-events. Yes there are those who speak very negatively about gold these days, but the price is going down, is it not? I choose to lend more credence to those who describe what is, rather than those who describe what they want it to be.
As for your:
As for all the other stuff about people being right, wrong or otherwise, who cares. This is a 'discussion' group where things are discussed.
I agree, this group is not to decide who is right and who is wrong. The markets tend to do that in the most obvious way. Those that are right, are making more $ than those that are wrong. I do wish though, that people would take responsibility for there irresponsibility. I have spent much time reviewing the history of this group. There are some whose story never changes and have consistently been mistaken about market direction. If you choose to lend the same weight to those with such a history, you will not find me at your table. Instead, I will be at the grand table where those who were right more than they are wrong are feasting in celebration of their good fortune.
To just say X will happen with no supporting view leaves the rest of us readers bereft of a response, irrespective of whether X actually occurs.
Is this meant to be rhetorical, or are you applying the absence of supporting view to me? Anybody who has read a fraction of my posts, has read thousands of word of supporting views.
I enjoy your challenges, as you force me to dig deeper into my ideas to find support, when I find it, I will report it, when I do not, I will modify my views. Thanks.
Duncan @ 11:55
I believe gold will hit at least $300, as this is a target for those that would drive it there. I even believe that gold could go much lower this year. I will admit to a chink in my armor. This whole capital gains cut caught me by surprise. Who would have thought that the democrats and the president would agree to a 25% cut in capital gains? Where did this come from? I worry that many equities investors would be sorely tempted to take at least some of their tremendous profits with the lower tax picture. Whether these sales would be enough to stop the roaring equities bull, I do not know. I will keep a close eye on my shorts and employ protective stops when necessary.
Oldhand @ 11:50
Your tale of competing student writers was all the more enjoyable in that it must have been created as you say, truth is indeed stranger that fiction. I rolled on the floor, even wet my skirt, kind of a skirt squirt. I wish I hadn’t said that.
Lurker @ 11:20 - Thanks.
Bob @ 11:11
My retort of evening last was in direct response to your:
Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 13:00
Bob ( @....in RJ's perfect world his logic is absolutely perfect ) :
RJ: You don't really believe that the markets are perfect and any price is the result of normal demand/supply decisions do you ?
This misrepresents my statements and opinions as posted in this group. You need not save my posts, as they are all here to review. I have reviewed my own as well as many others here. I asked that you represent my views accurately and not assign suppositions to me which I do not hold. This a simple and, I’ll wager, universal consideration that all would wish for themselves. Perhaps I assume too much.
Speaking of wagers, I will not accept yours, as I have not accepted many others that have been presented to me. Hepboy has the crystal ball, not I. I play these markets for real with hundreds of thousands of dollars every day and these wagers do not excite me. They prove nothing and are simply an ego satisfying game. Besides, RJ is not a handle, it is my name. My clients, colleagues, and friends know me as RJ. One does not wager his identity.
As for review of prior posts; I found many of yours ( if you are the same Bob of prior posts ) Your interest seems to be primarily gold stocks. I no nothing of gold stocks. Zero. I found in your posts a wealth of information. I still would not invest in mining stocks. My investments in precious metals are entirely physical. For stocks, I will go to what I understand, most of which can be found on NASDAQ and S&P. I have found your posts to be well balanced and observant of prevailing market conditions.
Lan Man @ 09:26
Thank you for your very precise input. I tire of the coin debate. When those who would deny that all reserve notes are invalid, and proceed to burn them or give them away; and further, when they would conduct all their affairs with gold and silver, I will listen to their pointless insistence that reserve notes are no good. Until they do, carry on this debate without me.
By the way, what does the Lan Man stand for? Do your install or maintain Local Area Networks?
This is the last time I will respond to those who would paint me as a bear with an agenda. I have said enough times that I could care less which way it goes. Repeating this again and again serves no purpose. Perhaps when the search function is restored, we may all learn a lot more about each others positions and views. Until then, I would rather not repeat the same themes ad infinitum.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 02:56
- Ted - You don't have to work so hard at having fun that you almost kill yourself! I won't tell you to take it easy, but be around when I get back - OK?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 02:53
- A single fact can spoil a good argument.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 02:42
- Since 12:30 only 2 posts ( at least since I began writing this ) and both related to the sewage ( disinformation or financial manipulation ) taking place in international market places. Could it also be that most of the 'leaders' of the countries around the world are so VERY easy to manipulate that, those ( read: covert representatives of the 'people' of the greatest nation on earth ) with the will, resources, and intent find it almost laughably simple to put forward their secret agendas. Australia's 'best' may have just given us a prime example, where even a country not considered 'backward and primitive', can be made to follow the game plan with very little coercion.
RJ - A few times lately you ( and others here ) have REALLY been on a tear railing against the sanity of anyone who dares to predict the future beyond a 4-5 day period and yet I seem to recall that only a couple of weeks ago you, yourself, were making just such a prediction calling for gold to drop to $275 in the intermediate time horizon. Cake and eat it too?
All - It's time to remember the my famous Mooney Kitco battle cry of the last year and a half. RELAX! We are all here to debate and try and learn from one another ( as many have recently been pointing out ) . If some want to day trade, fine. If some want to be long and some short, fine. If some like to predict ( short term OR long term, RJ ) based on charts, techs, or moon cycles, FINE. Live and let live and don't be like an alleycat always looking for a scrap. RELAX. Take it in and spit it out, but don't spit on each other.
Having said all that I must say that our mooncycle buddy's ( where's he been lately anyway? ) method has been about the most accurate indicator lately, as the big drop came right at the new moon, and the last full moon saw a large increase. Coincidence? Maybe. But if by chance this freak of nature occurs again expect a down movement between now and next Tuesday and a large price recovery around Aug. 18-20.
I guess I'm staying up late tonight ( now 2:30 local time ) and making this long post as tommorrow starts a long weekend in Canada and I shall not be able to share in the camraderie around here until next Tuesday as I'm heading to 'cottage country' and the cosh by a lake north of the city. No phone, NO TV, no computer, ( not even a good stereo, RJ - have to listen to CD's in car on way up or going back and forth to golf course! ) but one thing we do have there is the eerie sound of the Canadian loons calling to each other across the lakes.
AAR - Everyone have a good weekend - and please - no food fights while I'm away!
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 02:23
- Ted. I beat ya EBN gold 324.90 up .25 AND I have got to hear about that canoe I mean kayak ride. COme on, I want to hear about it. But right now I'm off to golden dreams. See ya in the am if I decide to blow off some meetings, in the afternoon if I do my duty.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 02:20
GIGANTOR ANYWHERE YOU WANT ME>(ANYWHERE YOU WANT ME):
- I THANK GOLDFINGER,HEPCAT AND PREDICTOR FOR THEIR INPUT. TO YOUR PREDICTION PREDICTOR, MAY ALL NON-BELIEVERS KISS THE DIRT.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 01:55
Jack Sewerage also consists of the equiptment>(Sewerage also consists of the equiptment):
AND MORE: The pumps, the treatment plants, the pipes through which the crap flow and so on, can be compared to the media, the government and the rest of the CREEPS of misinformation ( sewerage ) .
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 01:44
Jack Sewerage only flow up hill under pressure>(Sewerage only flow up hill under pressure):
In sanitary engineering, the term sewerage contains impurities, be they chemical or human feces mixed with water. Sewerage, consisting mostly of water only flows uphill under pressure. AND BOY ARE THEY USING PRESSURE TO PUMP THE SHIT.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 01:23
Jack Can't you see the crap heap?>(Can't you see the crap heap?):
Maybe the gaseous emissions are clouding our thinking.
No inflation? sure, why worry about the bond market, then a well timed report says, bonds are going up - interest are going rates down, because $%^&* ( : ) . Earlier, Hashimoto makes a statement and we say, hey, its about time and then the Aussies shoot their wad; crap the sky is falling. This is followed by Asian devaluations that drive the dollar up against all currencies.
All for public consumption, to cloud the truth and most here know what that is.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 00:28
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters):
- jgkjal : You use charts and happen to stumble on to a magic 8 BALL. I also have been known for darts. Actually and realistically fundamentals are a case here. The charts are helpful, but the move that gets on the way right from the gate is going to surprise technicians and the like. Gold has more work to do, but it could happen at any time now. Watch out shorts the bull is coming through.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 00:06
- Gold Finger, I liked your post but what are you basing it on. It's my thinking that there is nothing but air in the gold market above 344 basis aug close. I use charts. what do you use?
RJ what is your exit point for gold short postions? Is it if Aug Gold closes above 344?
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 00:03
Email received on KRY/PDG saga @Las Cristinas>(@Las Cristinas):
- Email received from Grandich Letter updates:
CSJ Judge Acuna suspends non-admittance rulings on Las Cristinas 4 & 6
-- report by VHeadline/VENews © Editor Roy S. Carson --
Caracas: Thursday, July 31, 1997 -- Crystallex lawyers here in Caracas are
refusing to comment a VHeadline/VENews exclusive in which Venezuelan
Supreme Court of Justice ( CSJ ) Substantiation Judge Maria Luisa Acuna is
revealed to have suspended the effect of her July 15 non-admission of three
( 3 ) out of eleven ( 11 ) motions to the Supreme Court's Political Administrative
Chamber ( PAC ) 5-Justice review.
VHeadline/VENews sources say that Judge Acuna revised her earlier ruling
Tuesday, which effectively means the three non-admissions go forward for
unimpeded appeal review, removing any shed of doubt that Placer Dome, the
Venezuelan Guayana Corporation ( CVG ) and/or their joint venture
partnership have any further say in the matter of the Las Cristinas 4 & 6
gold-mining concessions in southeastern Bolivar State.
Asked to confirm or deny our story, lawyer Ricardo Cottin said a press
release is being prepared and he would not give advance
details. We have been unable to contact either Crystallex International ViP
Richard Marshall or CEO Marc Oppenheimer.
We have, however, sought to find out why Judge Acuna should have suspended
the non-admissions, but all we're told is that Her Honor has been rather taken
aback by the welter of desinformation propagated in the wake of her admittance
rulings two weeks ago and the variously incorrect interpretations given to
it in some sectors of the media.
Independent legal opinion says that, basically, Judge Acuna's decision to
suspend or leave without effect her previous three non-admissions doesn't
change the internal CSJ PAC decision process very much, but rather smooths
the way for procedural review towards giving Crystallex/Inversora Mael full
and final clear title to the concessions.
In separate news, our own VHeadline/VENews sources say that the Venezuelan
Registry Office has also given the CVG a decided rap over the
knuckles when, in a recent move where they tried to land-register Las
Cristinas but were foiled when Register officials caught them in the act and
warned them off in what are described as strong terminology for trying to
slip a crafty one past them.
The Registry office apparently sent CVG away with a flea in its ear to not
even think of returning to try to land-register Las
Cristinas 4 & 6 until after the Supreme Court has handed down its fourth and
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 00:02
- Peutz: What you said was Without Central Bank sales, gold could possibly be at $450 instead of $330. I believe this implies that the CBs have depressed gold's price by some $120 or 27% of the would-be price and 36% of the current price. No one takes an oath to post here but some consistency might be expected from those who are confident in their portrayal of the state of global finance.
- Date: Fri Aug 01 1997 00:01
- I ,for one,quite enjoy the lively exchange of views presented here
and find the differences stimulating ;keep up the good work.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 23:53
6pak Missionary Tribe @ Goldbugs>(Missionary Tribe @ Goldbugs):
- Speed @ 23:17
Right On ! lighten up !
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 23:53
- To Mike Sheller re your 23:11 post. I fully agree. You are a professional investor. Personally I've used every weakness in gold to buy more stock in junior golds. I'm also sure that if anyone in this forum could call a down market in gold with 100% accuracy everyone here would short. Also there are no such things in stocks as paper losses or paper gains. As the man says, don't count your money while you're still in the card game. In any investment market there are never any guarantees. If I take my lumps then so be it and congratulations to the person who has made money. If I make money then good for me. Also, the man never lived who foretold the future. Sometimes I think that too many prognosticators are really only prognosticating their egos. Mike, thanks for the clear thinking.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 23:51
goldfinger Currency crisis ahead. >(Currency crisis ahead. ):
- Time to remove your rose colored glasses.The toilet flush is about to begin.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 23:36
- I wonder if the Russians or the Chinese will soon back their currencies with gold. This is the only way they can escape U. S. financial domination. Imagine the status. Imagine the amount of money that would pour into China or Russia if they backed their currency with gold. For China it would be the beginning of the struggle for world leadership. I wonder.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 23:26
GOLDFINGER WITHOUT GOLD WE FOLD>(WITHOUT GOLD WE FOLD):
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 23:17
Speed caveat emptor>(caveat emptor):
- Puetz: RJ will no doubt defend himself with his usual style and eloquence. I for one enjoy his posts and do not share your fear for the novices among us. Those who follow the shorts are ahead of us longs on the scoreboard by a bunch. Speculators have presented us with the buying opportunity of a lifetime, if we really believe gold is going up. If we are correct, and gold rallies, RJ will be found with us, long though possibly out of breath. If we are wrong, then history may record that RJ was the missionary sent to the tribe of Goldbugs to lead us to the Profit. In other words, lighten up.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 23:16
- TO Puetz--Not everyone on the Kitco Forum is a long term trader. Some of us trade in the commodity markets, where we can't afford to wait fifteen years waiting for national financial ruin to make our coins look attractive by default. If short term trading is not your style or if you don't understand the concept, fine, but to disparage short term traders lends no positive purpose in my mind.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 23:16
- DA per your 12:34.......Yes, house costs must go up. Folks are taking
money out of this inflated market as I mentioned earlier. I figure, from
your data that prices could go up 10% this year. Same number of people
bidding on houses with more paper dollars equals price increase. If the
money comes from inflated financial instruments then it is inflation.
We may have a Mandarian government system at work since no econ prof.
working at a land grant university and an ROTC program, etc wants to rock
the boat vis-a-vie the Federal gov. So, they say/write what the power
boys want them to. Shoot they will revise history and the dictionary as
the Chinese did centuries ago. Nothing new under the sun. ( |:- ) )
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 23:15
- JAMES BOND: THE PRECIOUS IS GETTING READY FOR A MELT UP. DON'T SCOFF, THEY ALSO SAID THE TITANIC WOULD NEVER SINK. WHEN THE TOP BLOWS OFF THIS BUBBLE GOLD WILL MAKES IT'S MOVE AS NEVER SEEN BEFORE. THE MAGNITUDE IN THIS HISTORIC MOVE WILL MAKE 79 LOOK LIKE A DEAD DOG BOUNCE. CRB IS HEADED NORTH THROUGH THE ROOF INTO CYBER SPACE. GOBBLE UP ALL HARD ASSETS YOU CAN FIND.
THE CHICKENS ARE COMING HOME TO REST.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 23:11
Mike Sheller cant we all just get along>(cant we all just get along):
- Hey gang. It ain't brain surgery. It's just a chat. Too much ascribing of motives and not enuf lightening up around here. Nobody owes anybody anything but their opinion here. And that's all it IS. OPINION. The most sophisticatedly reasoned arguments, or the most outrageous prognostications ( including that damn astrologer ) , both long term or short term, are just opinions. Take what you like, and leave the rest. As for folks misleading investors, if you can't play the game without crying when you lose, go watch a movie for your entertainment, or save quarters in a jar. I find the concerns for other people's financial safety, motivation and agenda sanctimonious and disingenuous. It's all very simple - the bulls want gold to go UP, the bears want gold to go DOWN. Duh. It's why they call it a MARKET. As for investment advisor status, or the appellation guru, these terms do not apply here. Everyone can talk. Consider the cost of the advice. This is a CHAT. Am I just cranky, or what?
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 22:56
- I finished my long awaited and long dreaded seminar. It looks like all of you USA types can have property worth $1,000,000 rather than $600,000 without incurring estate tax. Also if you have a farm you might be able to exclude $1.3 million from your estate. It looks like the government is wising up a little. Also the capital gains tax maximum will be 20% for higher bracket and 10% for lower backet taxpayers. Its goosebump city all right. Now if they could just get the price of gold to take off with all this optimism.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 22:50
- Nick: I am ( and have been ) in agreement with the article saying that Central Bank gold sales have had a minimal impact on gold prices. Net Central Bank gold sales are only a small part of total annual gold sales from all sources.
The only arguement I have recently made regarding that issue is that Central Bank sales have provided a gift to gold buyers buy pushing gold down even lower than they would have been without the sales. Instead of the present $330, maybe gold would be at $350, $375, or $400 if Central Banks had not sold. But, all of these prices are extremely low compared to where gold is headed.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 22:44
Skylark @ Silvertown>(@ Silvertown):
- D.A. I believe a valid tool to use to determine when a major rally in silver is likely is to observe some of the equities that are a commodity call on silver such as SSC. These stocks have not responded to any recent silver rallies, and all such rallies have proved short-lived as the equities have predicted. IMO when these equities start moving in unison will be the time to start thinking about a major rally in the metal.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 22:43
- Good night ALL on our great little forum....Kudos to Byron for his tireless efforts ot be of help and his not owning a TV for 20 years..WOW!
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 22:40
vronsky Goldbugs LAST WEEKLY COMMENT ON SILVER STOCKS>(Goldbugs LAST WEEKLY COMMENT ON SILVER STOCKS):
- In light of SILVER’s price surge, it’s relevant to read “Silver Stocks, there ain’t too many.” Reviews Pan Am Silver, Silver Standard, Int’l Avino, United Kino & Sunshine, others::
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 22:39
- D.A. For your comments to Ray; I also am much obliged for your information and candor. I like your thinking! I have been trying to find information on silver consumption in industry, for instance how much does Kodak use, without luck. Any ideas on where to locate this info? Thanks in advance.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 22:19
vronsky FOR SHORT-TERM STOCK MARKET TRADERS - July 30 Report>(FOR SHORT-TERM STOCK MARKET TRADERS - July 30 Report):
- CNBC analyst celebrity predicts a sharp decline in stocks within next 60 days - although he is bullish longer-term. See INGER LETTER FORECAST. Must RELOAD Gold Digest page:
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 22:12
I've done a little research in the silver stock area but am not convinced of any of the plays. That said if silver takes off I'm sure they will all do fine. When I buy the little stocks I like to make sure there is real asset value so that in case of a big down move in the metal I'm not left out in the cold.
As for the metal itself, we are very long a set of options ranging in strikes from 575 to 675 with expirations between 9 and 12 months. I wasn't in the office today so I don't know what has happened to the implied vols in these things but I guess they are going up. We are looking for a big accident. If you read one of Donald's recent news clippings about massive amounts of money chasing third world bonds you will see the basis for my optimism. The world is awash in liquidity. I'm just hoping that some of it flows into the silver market. The market is so small that very little money will send it into orbit.
My contention is that the way out of the money calls with lots of time are radically undervalued. My argument is best seen in the light of the experience we had in the Pa market. Several things stand out about that experience. The first is that the fundamentals were well known in advance, but nobody really cared. Second, after we bought our first tranche of options back in Sept of 96 the price continued to decline though mildly over the next two months. In two months time, the price was down about 8 bucks and the people who sold us our options gave us a quote implying that the options had lost 50% of their value. Given that these options were for 2 years I was incredulous. How could 10% of the time value disappear plus a move of a few dollars in price add up to a 50% decline in value. We bought another load. The point about this is that people are sitting in front of screens pricing things off of options models and not 'thinking'. Options models by and large are based a statistical assumptions about price movements which in the commodities markets are false, especially with concern to long term options. What the option markets fail to price correctly is event risk. The event risk for Pa and for Si in my opinion would be that we enter a period of shortage which is exacerbated by a play. Under these conditions the price can exceed your wildest dreams.
Another point about Pa is that a few weeks back we inquired about reloading our options position in the expectation that a Sept. squeeze in Pa was a real possibility. When we went to the house that sold us our original load and asked for a market they basically told us to get lost. The point is that after having been burned by a price movement, they had now deemed that market to be too risky to play in. The only thing that realigned their thinking in this market was price. Yet had we asked them for a market in silver, they would have obliged readily ( We did our actually trading through the Comex ) .
Here are some numbers that are interesting. When silver was at about 420 spot were able to buy 575 calls with about a year remaining for 7.5 cents. It is very difficult to quantify the odds on a massive silver rally, but if we do have one, it would not be unusual for the price of silver to double or perhaps triple. We have just seen coffee go from 90 cents to $3.00 and Pa go from 115 to 240. Neither of these markets are on the public's radar screen so they attracted little retail speculation. A big move in silver will have the punters lined up. Should the price of silver go up 2-2.5 times to about $10, sometime over the next year the payoff on these options will be better than 50 to 1. Since 1992, a period of 5 years we have seen these moves, all which took place in about a year's time.
Wheat low $3 range to $7
Corn low $2 to $5
Pa 115 to 240
Coffee 90 to 240
Coffee 90 to 315
Lumber 190 to 430
Lead 365 to 700
Zinc 950 to 1700
Natural Gas 200 to 400
Plus other near doubles in PB, and CT.
My gut feeling on silver is that the chances for a really big move are perhaps 1 in 10 over the next year, rising to maybe 1 in 3 over the next three years. I do believe that the fundamentals are what they appear and we are just heading for the inevitable spike when they assert themselves fully. I plan on being around for the party.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 22:08
- Puetz: In case you missed it earlier here is the URL
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 22:06
- EBN Gold + Silver slide excelerates ...Gold down .50 and Silver down 3 cents...How long can XAU and in particular NEM resist the lackluster gold action....or are they in they usual role as a forerunner for the bullion?
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 22:05
Nick Second request>(Second request):
- Puetz: On July 28 I asked for your views on the statements contained in the article below. It appears to refute you view that CBs have an important effect on gold's price. Since you seem to be interested in truth tonight perhaps you will give your views on the statements made by the gent who controls the largest gold producing enterprise on the face of the earth?
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 22:00
- Steve Puetz ( 21:53 ) I disagree that RJ is doing a disservice to the forum!
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 21:56
nomercy short pain - long gain>(short pain - long gain):
- Philippine firm shuts gold mine due to soft prices
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 21:54
nomercy Seasonal -Physical buying picking up>(Seasonal -Physical buying picking up):
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 21:53
- To balance the Kitco forum -- That's not a good reason to praise RJ's or Johnny-Hepcat's postings. Do we need lies to balance out truth? Do we need starvation to balance out a satisfied appetite? Do we need cruelty to balance out goodness? The answer to all of these questions is NO.
The acceptance of short-term thinking and short-term speculation is what has gotten our country into the present financial mess. 99% of the stock market bulls ( and 99% of the gold market bears ) will be financial slaughtered because they use the same short-term thinking process that RJ uses.
RJ's short-term analysis distracts unsuspecting, novice precious-metal investors from the huge long-term upside potential in gold in silver. By distracting investors from this long-term potential, RJ is performing a dis-service to this forum. It is akin to using lies to balance out the truth.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 21:37
- Tomorrow is the big one...The empoyment report...Consenus est. 192,000 jobs created...Could make for a volatile day....Vieserre ( 13:37 ) good post!...but don't you have a crystal ball?...Today was a kayak trip I should never have taken but......
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 21:35
Miro Testimony in the US Senate on Y2K in Financial Institutions >(Testimony in the US Senate on Y2K in Financial Institutions ):
- For anybody interested in Y2K readiness of financial institutions in the
US read the testimony of E.W. Kelly in front of the US Senate at
- Many banks have underestimated the Y2K efforts
- Some banks are expected to experience operating difficulties
- The Federal Reserve will be prepared to lend in appropriate
circumstances and with adequate collateral to depository institutions
when market sources of funding are not reasonably available.
- Banks are urged to consider Y2K risks posed by their borrowers and
incorporate it into underwriting standards as banks could be adversely
affected by borrowers who are not prepared for Y2K processing.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 21:30
Ron Newmont Mining>(Newmont Mining):
- Producing record gold, the company's cost this year is $193/oz: http://www.denverpost.com/news/news878.htm
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 21:17
- Missed out on the markets today and I see gold was down two dollars but Silver soared...um...Had a great day at Scaterie Island but had a near death experience gettin home 12 hours later...Never and I mean NEVER try and leave Scaterie in a strong SW wind...Whatta nighmare!...EBN Gold down .30 and Silver down two cents...Looks like gold shares out-performed gold again...must make George happy...again!...What the hell happened to the DOW....I thought it only went up in this new era we got goin...
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 21:11
Ron SA Gold Industry Shakeout>(SA Gold Industry Shakeout):
- The South African gold industry is undergoing a price-driven shakeout that could increase share buying opportunities in the short term . . .: http://www.abcnews.com/sections/business/rt_gold731/index.html
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 21:10
- D.A.- do you mind telling me what bet is a good bet on silver. Are you talkin stocks for futures My e-mail is real and you may still have my #
if you do not want to tell all. Thanks!
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 21:07
PREDICTOR for GIGANTOR>(for GIGANTOR):
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 20:57
Those censors need to be ever more vigilant, lest more snippets get through.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 20:54
George Cole Newmont>(Newmont):
- Byron: Newmont's breakout sure looks like a roar of approval from the market for their move to reduce hedge exposure. This kind of action will intensify pressure on others to move in the same direction. Juast what the doctor ordered!
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 20:54
Byron @ Being Kicked Out:>(@ Being Kicked Out:):
- Library is closing. Good night all. Re-boot time. Dream about that Newmont chart.: )
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 20:47
- Is this a sign of a slowing economy ( I think not! )
Even the SEC commissioner gets cut off when he says' incorrect' things!
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 20:36
- Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 20:34
- Glenn, Just want to thank you again for your unbiased view of what is happening in the market. I, personally, really look forward to reading your posts.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 20:29
Byron @ A Site For Sore Eyes:>(@ A Site For Sore Eyes:):
- To All:
Please take a look at the daily chart for Newmont at http://www.quote.com If this doesn't lift you spirits, I don't know what will. After you get the quote, symbol is nem ,then click on black down arrow at retrival mode to access the daily chart.
What is the name of that game: Follow The Leader. Sure looks like a breakout to me. Any comments?
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 20:06
Bob @...DA's 2 cents>(@...DA's 2 cents):
- Good one.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 19:56
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- Donald -- An interesting posting! I surmise though that the consumers are slow in 'responding' simply because that expansion is not happening in their paychecks! We find here, in this country, that wages have finally begun to rise again. Therefore, consumption can continue for awhile.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 19:52
- Glenn: I respect your views and admire your courage. Good luck.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 19:48
Thanks for the response. Will use it in the future. I didn't mean to imply that I wanted to get rich quick. I gave up on that a long time ago. Just want to protect what I have ( in case of a correction ) , maybe make a better than average return over the long term, and hopefully retire a little earlier than my dad did so I can enjoy life in the golden years. : )
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 19:48
- Rob Jul 30 23:38 - Re: Seat prices - I do not know what the other exchanges charge for seat prices. You can look there phone numbers up on the internet and call them. For COMEX I leased my seat for $500/month which I consider very cheap. You can buy a COMEX seat for about $110,000. Crude Oil I hear is $6,000/month lease and $550,000 to buy, It my be slightlly cheaper as crude has been going no where.
Bob Jul 30 - 21:36 - Re: short term view - I would love nothing more than to be able to know exactly where the price of gold is going and to make $15.00 per contract ( Ie sell at 340 buy at 315, go long at 315 sell again at 330 ) Unfortunitly I did change my mind rather quickly this week going from Bull to Bear and now that I am bearish I may change my mind again quickly. I am not indecisive nor do I think too short term. This is simply a very difficult trading period as Gold is at a very low level and could rally but the numbers say it's heading lower. Even right now as I write this I am tring to continue to figure everything out. But to be fair I did post to the group before the market turned down. I am not sure how low we are going but I am short and only time will tell. I'm constantly keeping one eye on the Dow ticker, one on bonds, and one ear open on what going on in the silver pit and the other ear following the gold pit. All this info goes into my head constantly and at the end of the day I have a huge head-ack! At some point the trend will change but until then ...........
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 19:44
Byron @ Substance:>(@ Substance:):
- Donald: I'm printing that 19:36 out right now. There was some substance there.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 19:38
Byron @ Speaking For Myself:>(@ Speaking For Myself:):
- To All:
Somebody said something to someone else about putting your money where your mouth is, well, I want everyone to know that I have two gold crowns in my mouth! 8= )
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 19:36
- An emerging bubble
Originally published: THURSDAY JULY 10 1997
Some very strange decisions are being made in the world's financial
markets. Serious financial institutions are buying billions of dollars of
long-term bonds from countries that five years ago were regarded as
economic disaster areas. Moreover, they have been buying them at
razor-thin margins over US Treasury bond yields.
Some institutions will come to rue their euphoria. Many know it, but each
believes it will be the one to escape the consequences that will be visited
on its less nimble rivals. Their behaviour is one important sign that central
banks in Japan and continental Europe are still pursuing an expansionary
monetary policy, pushing money into their economies in an attempt to
revive the spirits of consumers. But consumers have been slow to react.
This excess liquidity has spilled over into financial assets on a global basis,
driving up prices. Much of the money ends in the hands of institutions in the
US which scour the world in search of higher returns.
The behaviour of investment institutions also contributes to the euphoria.
With yields so low, institutions' returns come mainly from capital gains.
With their performance against their competitors measured quarterly,
short-term trading gains or losses far outweigh relatively small differentials
in annual bond yields.
This means that institutions can justify buying, to cite some recent
examples, US dollar bonds from China yielding less than a percentage
point over the equivalent US Treasury paper and bonds from Slovenia with
a yield difference of less than half a point.
These are margins that in no way compensate investors for the higher risks
they are taking. Fund managers know this but cannot bail out, lest the rally
continues and their performance against their peers looks anaemic.
These emerging bond markets are not alone. Russia's very risky stock
market has raced away this year, as has Mexico's in recent weeks. The
Thai stock market last week shrugged off a devaluation that could further
undermine the banking system, and rose sharply. There is even a growing
interest among investors - or at least among the brokers that vie to serve
them - in Africa. In the US itself, the junk bond market has been roaring
ahead and bank lending margins to corporate borrowers have slumped.
There are good reasons why some emerging markets should be more
highly rated than they were. In a world of increasingly institutionalised
savings, fund managers are seeking to spread risk by investing in new
financial markets. In regions such as Latin America, pools of domestic
savings are also being created through private pension funds. Moreover,
many developing economies are simply more open and market-oriented
than they were in the 1980s. Inflation has fallen and the prospects for
growth in certain emerging markets are genuinely better than in the more
Yet it is abundantly clear that many investors are not distinguishing
adequately between these good risks and the bad. The history of financial
market bubbles suggests they should now act with greater caution. Let the
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 19:12
- Gold Mining Outlook has Lithuianian Central Bank selling all 6 tons of gold reserves.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 19:06
- D.A. Recently the Elliott Wave people had 4.45 as major resistance for silver on the upside.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 19:01
6pak Canadian Mud @ Pot of Gold - End of Rainbow>(Canadian Mud @ Pot of Gold - End of Rainbow):
- There's Gold in that thar mud.
Prospectors probe Ottawa River
BY: Mark Dunn - Canadian Press
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 18:43
I have heard nothing on the grapevine of interest. In fact, last I spoke with my desk, there was no interest. This is one of those commodities whose stocks have been drawn down over several years and whose price has not responded. One of the recent reports that I read stated that the stocks to use ratio will fall this year to the lowest level since 1979. It is possible we have begun to cross the threshhold where lower inventories mean higher prices. It is also possible that there is a game afoot. This possibility would of course be the most interesting of all. As I have remarked many times, there are many funds out there with the ammo to take down the whole load. As the inventory shrinks and the price goes down the temptation gets larger. My fingers are crossed, and my bets are down.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 18:32
- Silverbug and D.A.- what's goin on with silver. Is this three down or [
up that is] and one to go SSO up 12%+ today.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 18:32
Little Bo Peep Mommy sez>(Mommy sez):
My mommy said Lil', yoooo never lissen any broker what he tels'yer. Yoooo alwees hasta make yer own'cisions. I alwees'gree witt my MAMA cause she good as gold.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 18:30
Speed tripping over molehills>(tripping over molehills):
- DJ: Good points all. SWC up today a bit. As we used to say in college about our football team, Just wait til next year!
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 18:25
- The messages are certainly more belligerent.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 18:14
- NOMERCY: Do you get the feeling that the old South China Post is different than the new South China Post?
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 18:10
DJ I'll get it right.>(I'll get it right.):
- Whoops again! I was working from memory and used futures prices instead of spot prices. Current spot prices are 55% !!! higher that the SWC hedged prices ( their ratio of PA to PL mined is 3.5:1 )
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 18:07
- China claims Chinese Yuan stronger than US dollar and HK dollar.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 18:04
DJ Scientific investor>(Scientific investor):
- Whoops! That is .... PL/PA. For you scientific types, these are the initials used for the metals futures. Now that I are an investor, I get to use these, instead of the Pd and Pt used by you grubby scientists.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 18:01
- Thailand foreign reserves at lowest level in 3 years.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 17:55
DJ Making a molehill out of a mountain>(Making a molehill out of a mountain):
- Speed - I don't disagree re: SWC earnings. In fact I have been very impressed with the systematic and professional way they have been handling every phase of the expansion. Their costs and ore grades should be very predictable. I'm quite sure that they can survive nicely at the hedged prices. And with the prices of PL/PD soaring, they will surely soon anounce their intent to put their efforts to open the East Boulder operation into high gear ( doubling their production when it comes on-line ) .
What a difference it would make though, if they were selling at or above the current spot prices, which are about 32% over their hedged prices. What dummies --- ain't hindsight wonderful?
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 17:54
vronsky SAGE ADVICE>(SAGE ADVICE):
- REF: D.A. ( 2 cents ) : INDEED Very sage & prudent advice.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 17:47
It going up.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 17:42
D.A. 2 cents>(2 cents):
You asked for some advice so here's a bit. My only guarantee is that it is worth at least as much as you are paying.
First, if you are looking towards the financial markets, or commodity markets or any other markets to alter your lifestyle in a meaningful way, the greatest possibility is that your lifestyle will be altered in a negative fashion. Without enormous luck, or equivalent effort, the best to be hoped for are 'normal' returns of a few percent a year over inflation.
The vast majority of people involved in these markets who are 'professionals' meaning they make their living there, do so by either being paid a commission for executing an order, or trade against a visible order flow. Their ability to extract money from the markets by trading is non-existant. It is virtually impossible to trade a single market consistantly enough to make real money. Some will no doubt counter about tales of great S&P traders, or cocoa traders or whatever. Because there is always a winner and a loser in every trade, someone must win. No doubt, many people win, but extremely few do so consistently. If you look at the managed futures business you will find almost no managers that make money based upon the continuous trading of a single vehicle. If they could, they would.
If you want to make money trading physical commodities I give to you the single best secret. Only buy them. Here is a systematic approach that will make money over time, and if you have some clever insights can do very well indeed. First, you must have enough money so that you can participate across the whole spectrum of commodities. My guess is that you'ld need a minimum of around $100K. The strategy is simple, take any trend following system you can think of, which gives signals based on fairly long trends ( months, not hours or days ) . Second, every time you get a buy signal risk a small predetermined portion of your pile, say 1 - 2%. The more you risk, the more volatile your returns will be. Once you have a risk factor in mind, don't change it because you 'think' this is a good trade or you don't 'like' this commodity. There are any number of ways to construct risk equivalent bets, but the options market prices risk every day, so one can use this information as a proxy for risk. Buy your stuff and then watch until you either lose your bet or your contract comes to an end. End of story.
If you are looking for more action you can also trade currencies. These can be used either long or short and again trend following and money management are the way to go.
If you have neither the funds, time or expertise to construct a systematic approach to the game, you will be playing a game which will be statistically against you. The more you play, the more likely you will lose. When faced with this kind of a game the proper play is generally to make a single large bet so that a random throw of the dice, or spin of the wheel can make your day. In this regard I would find a commodity which has some good long term fundamentals, and take a long term view. Buy a large quantity of way out of the money calls, with lots of time remaining, then sit back a watch your horse run.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 17:28
Speed @passed myself in the hall>(@passed myself in the hall):
- D.A. : of course I meant DJ. sorry
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 17:23
- Does anyone know what's going on with Silver?
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 16:56
nomercy China-US relations>(China-US relations):
- The Treasury bond holders and buyers make request:
We hope that
the US side will
. . . not allow
. . . bring
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 16:47
- BW: As CNBC is probably being beamed to Mars via the Rover you will need to revise your figures 112% Bullish now that the Martians are buying. They are new at this so only 12% have signed up so far.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 16:43
I sold my Stillwater during the first go round in Pa and Pl and haven't followed them since. I think youre looking for one of the Bobs. Happy trails.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 16:39
- After the ( 2000 points in the dow ) runup in the last ten or so weeks you would think this market might need a breath. But the greatest mania we probably will ever see defies all bounds. Perhaps the blowoff is yet to come. The bullish consensus is over 80% last I checked but maybe we will see 95% or so before its all over. The dow utilities closed today at 235.56. If they can take out 240 the staid money may even be drawn into the vortex. Money may be flowing into the mutual funds at a rate about matching its highest ever ( about 30 billion a month ) . The funds have been buying as soon as they get the money. I am starting to wonder who will be selling. The bulls are only interested in buying and the spec shorts are all dead or scared to death. If we start to rise at a rate greater than the last ten weeks it will be scary indeed. Cash purchases of silver or gold eagles for insurance seem to be a rational way to play this one.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 16:37
George Cole gold stocks>(gold stocks):
- Gold stocks held up very well indeed today in the face of a $1.90 drop in the bullion price. More backing and filling is in store followed by a big move up. This is the best gold stock versus bullion action I have seen in a long, long time. Just the opposite of the early 1997 short-covering rally when bullion briefly surged towards $360, but the gold stocks lagged.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 16:14
Byron @ Lunch Time:>(@ Lunch Time:):
- Ron: Thanks. Will print out later and disgest over a cup of coffee. Right now lunch time. Me hungry.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 16:06
Byron @ The Close:>(@ The Close:):
- Looks like XAU has closed under 98. Gold was down today. The battle between the shorts and longs continues. The CRB cash was up nicely, thank you. Looking forward to checking the JOC Industrial Price numbers later from Mr. Kaplan and the newspaper.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 16:02
Byron @ Send All Tips This Way:>(@ Send All Tips This Way:):
- curious: no tipping alouded. We have sign-up sheets for the graphic computers. Text only computers ar a-plenty. : )
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 15:56
Byron @ Waiting:>(@ Waiting:):
- Donald: Read Kaplan's comments. Haven't quite figured out what he means yet. I'm at a text only machine at the library at the moment..... The chart that Y.Auger shows can be interpreted two ways: With that widespread one thinks of an elastic band about to break. But in which direction. I would like to think that it will close on the upside based on my other indicators. There was also another chart on the XAU Ratio posted on Goldsheet address which I don't have in front of me at the moment....For example, there could be a big sell off in gold which would bring the Gold/XaU Ration down to the XAU Index. ( I'm speaking from memory with no chart in front of me at the moment.... Kaplan has a lot of indicators not all of which I understand. For example, there is the one with the numbers of hit on his site per day, etc. Hopes this helps.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 15:53
- D.A. : per the SWC discusstion, hedging cuts into potential profits. It does not guarantee losses. SWC hedges are set below current spot but well above cost. They are making money, just not as fast or as well as they could/should. They expensed a bunch of improvements causing the 1st half losses. I hold some shares and so my opinion should be weighted accordingly. They could get around the hedging if the backwardation in pgms corrected. The key to the whole issue is how much real production they can demonstrate above the amounts pledged to hedge contracts. This general issue is of interest to gold stock holders because a real breakout in gold will present the same hedging pain to many.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 15:50
curious @the library>(@the library):
- Byron: do you tip the librarians to save you a machine to use everyday?
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 15:46
- Absotively, posolutely...correct....sort of...well, sometimes... O.K....rarely?
So far... But...hopeful?
I am not ashamed to admit it, but I have listened to some of the regulars and gone long GCXX. And have gotten flamed....On more than one occaision. I made the mistake of having been swayed by some of the irrational optimism expressed here at KITCO as to the upward direction of gold. No hard feelings or offense to anyone - they were all my decisions and I accept full responsibility for the losses. I have learned my lessons and will carry on. And I have slowly begun to note who are the constantly emotionally biased standard bearers ( bullers? ) for gold and who are the balanced, rational metal watchers whose desires are the same as my own - to make money. Not money for power or want of things or to be greedy, but for freedom. Believe it or not, money means freedom - the freedom do the things you REALLY want to do, when YOU want to do it. The ability to tell the bank that took your umbrella away on a rainy day what they can do with that umbrella. Or the boss who expects 14 hour work days. I think you get the picture.... Different people desire different levels on Pavlov's hierarchy. While I'm not low on the pyramid, I'm not yet where I'd like to be, either.
As I stated in an earlier post, I wish to fabricate a parachute which will allow me to bail out of some unknown future potential economic crash and survive my financial standard of living. The golden parachute hasn't worked well.... yet. Can't survive many more of those types of landings....
So, having rambled on this much, I would like to most humbly and respectfully request this from those of you who know more about investments than I:
1. Consider the potential audience at Kitcoland - there are battle hardened veterans of metal/financial wars past and then there are the fragile, neophite freshmen who haven't the experience yet to know the mechanics of how to operate a speculative investment. And a lot of in-betweeners... Think about the possible ramifications of your advice, prognostications, or ( on occaision ) emotional outbursts. All people who visit, lurk, or contribute this gold site must have some interest in the metal, else they wouldn't be here. I'm sure they appreciate the information available here. I know I do. And would appreciate any additional information anyone is willing to forward to me. My area of expertise is certainly not financial/metal related, but I will gladly reciprocate if I can.
Sorry for the excessive, non-goldspeak verbosity...
And thanks in advance.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 15:42
Ron Byron: tax cuts>(Byron: tax cuts):
- Byron: Here's one pertinent article that came up on News Tracker when I searched it for you: http://washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-07/30/035l-073097-idx.html
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 15:37
Byron @ Teasing:>(@ Teasing:):
- XAU now at 97.99. The games continue.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 15:30
Lan Man Donald@Bema Takeover>(Donald@Bema Takeover):
- I know, I too get the same newsletter. I bought BGO based upon his reco from 2 years ago for $2.00 and sold out at $8.25 last year. They Do have Great Reserves and Plenty of Potential, the posting was more of an FYI that with sooooooo many others doing what Stillwater did, when gold does turn around, many companies will be caught up that proverbial river. Presently I believe that several hundred jrs are ripe for a takeover. So if you are buying any of them - say BGO in particular, no problem just so long as you know that this speculation is based upon being a possible takeover target...and not because they may show a profit anytime in the next few years. It is possible that they will not in fact be bought out, but will jv their properties, only Johnson knows for sure.
Didn't SGR have several possibles listed, including a few that prospect in Indonesia?
Couple of months ago checked into Stillwater, wondering why this N.A. pa/pl producer was just sitting on the sidelines, even though the whites were screaming. Now you know why also.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 15:24
Anyone have an idea as to why the front month Euro's are rising while the back ones are not? I can not ever recall seeing this kind of activity. It would seem to imply that investors believe that the FED will not raise rates on the short end even if it is in fact required. Perhaps there is a technical reason where mountains of cash are looking for short term home. Any insight welcome.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 15:23
Ron News Tracker>(News Tracker):
- Byron: After you do your News Tracker search, hit the 'View By Date' link. Cool. So much news, so little time. Help! I need a 32-bit network adapter for my brain!
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 15:15
RMW The latest from the Bre-X scam>(The latest from the Bre-X scam):
- Bre-X Minerals Ltd -
Internet campaigner claims to be Bre-X brother
Bre-X Minerals Ltd
Shares issued 219103330
1997-05-07 close $0.09
Thursday Jul 31 1997
Also Bro-X Minerals Ltd ( BXO )
Also Bresea Resources Ltd ( BSR )
TIPSTER CLAIMS BROTHER INNOCENT
by Stockwatch Business Reporter
For months now a battle for the hearts and minds of
investors has been waged on the Internet by a pen name
poster who told only a select few that he is the brother of
David Walsh, head of the Bre-X Minerals group of
companies. Merrick Walsh, who has used the names
drumbeat and mikesloan in posting countless messages
to Bre-X, Bresea Resources and Bro-X Minerals and
related discussion threads on the Silicon Investor web-site,
claims to be the brother of the Bre-X chief whom he
describes as brilliant and the most important person in
the gold-digging business.
On January 21 1997, Mr Walsh first signed onto Silicon
Investor as drumbeat and began warning investors of a
campaign of disinformation that he said was meant to
discredit Bre-X and its management. The only mistake
Bre-X ( then $21.40 ) made was to find too much gold said
drumbeat as he chastised those on-line who he believed
were attempting to demonize David Walsh.
By mid-February, as Bre-X was being forced into
partnership with Freeport-McMoRan, drumbeat was
acting as an investment advisor pounding out such
messages as Don't be fooled into selling your stock. I'm
sure it will not be at these prices for long and What a
great time to buy!!!! The stock was up to $24.
In mid-March 1997, after Busang geologist Mike de
Guzman fell to his death from a helicopter and Freeport
McMoRan found no gold, drumbeat fell silent and the
rhythm of his posts carried on under another name.
On March 23, mikesloan first appeared as a poster on
Silicon Investor and carried on, hardly missing a beat, with
such statements as, I still believe the problem is that Bre-X
found too much gold and big powerful interests want it
bad. Next, he threw down the gauntlet for Freeport
McMoRan and its chief Jim Bob Moffet, with his challenge
come on, Freeport, step up and be counted. Let's have a
public statement saying the deposit is worthless if that's
what you think. I double-dog dare you to.
Right up until the check assays of Strathcona Minerals
Services confirmed the Freeport findings of insignificant
mineralization, mikesloan was insistent, telling investors
on April 29, When all the gold is discovered at Busang it
will exceed most people's wildest expectations. On May 1
he advised people to hold onto their $3 stock, There is a
shaker going on, the gold is there, and the price will
rebound maybe not immediately but slowly and surely over
the next while.
Privately, drumbeat/mikesloan told other SI posters that
he and his information could be trusted because he was
Merrick Walsh, David Walsh's brother. Following the
release of the Strathcona results that exposed the Busang
gold find as a giant fraud, he stopped posting investment
advice and, instead, repeatedly defended Bre-X chief Walsh
and those who worked for him in Bre-X's Canadian
headquarters. I'm positive no one involved in the Calgary
office was involved in any fraud is typical of numerous
statements posted to the internet by Merrick Walsh during
The man who claims to be David Walsh's brother told the
SI group, I know that most mining scams are usually
perpetuated by the owners. This is an unprecedented
situation. According to him, there's no doubt that the
Bre-X CEO is entirely innocent in the affair.
A telephone number for Merrick Walsh in Vancouver, BC
has been recently disconnected with no forwarding contact
At the Calgary office of Bre-X Minerals, an employee told
Stockwatch that she would they would pass on a request for
someone to answer whether or not Merrick, aka Rick
Walsh, was in the family. Minutes later Brett Walsh
returned the call and began the conversation by saying, I'm
just curious as to what Rick is saying.
When told of the internet postings and asked if his father
had a brother named Rick, the young Walsh said, Well I
wouldn't want to get into it, but I don't know of any Internet
postings that have been going on.
( c ) Copyright 1997 Canjex Publishing Ltd.
old url ( better for printing )
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 15:14
nomercy Neil Collette>(Neil Collette):
- Thanks for the URL Neil, haven't had the time to peruse, but I shall in due course. It is quite evident of course, that the CPI is not reflective enough of real economic conditions. There are far to many variables to consider, including geographic location etc. The 'real damage' of course its to the economy, as the opportunists and speculators take advantage of the political climate, and window dressing to their gain. And it is those few which put an added twist to the Fed's dilemma in managing, as theirs become more a reflexive reaction rather than planned. There lies the danger and why nervousness abounds.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 14:56
- BYRON: Last night Steve Kaplan considered the XAU/Spot ratio to be bearish. Do you have an opinion on why he sees it differently than the chart we are looking at?
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 14:56
- BYRON: I do not see any XAU stock moving much except NEm, but the fact the rest are not going down with a drop in gold is significant. There may be a surprise in the economic numbers tomorrow if the DOW falls off with a rise in the XAU at the close.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 14:56
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
- Byron: I should have added that by going to Matt Drudge's homepage at http://www.drudgereport.com you can also search the AP and UPI newswires, as well as Reuters and News Tracker, for any recent story about the cap gains tax cut. I don't mean to be too cynical, but we should all keep in mind that this cut, despite all the media brouhaha and political pud pulling, is less than 10% of the cut we got under Reagan -- and the economy is much, much bigger now.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 14:50
Byron @ Sleath Attack:>(@ Sleath Attack:):
- Ron: Thanks. Will check later on. ...Right now both indexes have taken a little bounce above resistence. Maybe a quite move up would be preferrable at this time. : )
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 14:47
Tom Feery firstname.lastname@example.org>(email@example.com):
- Byron, For information and discussion on capital gains try www.polyconomics.com
Here is a brief statement to the Senate Finance Committee regarding capital gains
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 14:43
Tada files for bankruptcy; debt totals 171
Tada Corp. applied to the Tokyo District Court on Wednesday for
protection from creditors under the Corporate Rehabilitation Law. The
second-tier construction firm has liabilities estimated at 171.4 billion yen,
including debt guarantees.
Tada had been restructuring with support from Nippon Trust Bank Ltd.
- its main bank - but profitability continued to deteriorate amid stiff
competition in the condominium building market. Tada, which earns
about 65% of its sales from condo construction, also incurred unrealized
losses on property holdings due to plunging land prices.
For the year ended March, the firm reported 700 million yen pretax
profit on sales of 122.1 billion yen. Established in 1947, Tada listed on
the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange in 1963.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 14:43
Byron @ Breakout?>(@ Breakout?):
- Skylark: HUI is plus 100. Seeing strength, continuing strength in the two indexes. So far, looking good. Lets start squeezing those shorts.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 14:43
Ron effect on mkt of cap gains tax cuts>(effect on mkt of cap gains tax cuts):
- Byron: go to http://nt.excite.com and do a search on something like: capital gains tax cut and effect on stock market. I just did it and got a whole slew of high percentage hits. Let us know if you find anything unexpected. Personally, I don't expect this to directly impact the commodity mkt in a big way, since the cuts aren't aimed at futures players.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 14:35
- BYRON: There goes the XAU past 98, or I should say there goes NEM past 98.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 14:31
Byron @ Action:>(@ Action:):
- Gold just closed in NY. XAU broke thru 98.00. Now lets see what happens.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 14:28
- Neil Collette: I do not think it includes local property taxes, such as those on your home or your automobile.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 14:15
- BOB A: Thanks, the post was not particularly directed to you but also to myself as well, for I was in SWC a weeks back without having checked the hedges. I often presume too much about the competence of both a company and a recommending pundit. IMO the latter need to have more discipline directed their way by having greater liability for loosely casted opinions. If they expect to earn a living by them, then they should have responsibility for their actions, not unlike any other profession or business. One should not legally excape liability by self-serving boilerplate which in essence states I am not responsible for anything I write.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 14:05
Byron @ Looking For A Catalyst:>(@ Looking For A Catalyst:):
- Has anyone seen any discussion or news stories regarding any effect that the changes in the capital gains tax might have on the stock markets. Once the budget is offically signed and people believe that the uncertainty is out of the way, should be expect any type of fallout from the changes?
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 14:01
Byron @ That Line:>(@ That Line:):
- XAU at 97.80. Once more we approach that forminable 98.00 resistence line.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 13:59
Bob A to Skylark>(to Skylark):
- You are correct with regards to hedging and also pundits and gurus. Iam guilty of investing without the winning information, I'm sure it won't be the last time. I monitor this site to learn and so far it's working, constructive criticism is always appreciated by me.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 13:41
Neil Collett in Jo'burg (firstname.lastname@example.org)>(in Jo'burg (email@example.com)):
- Nomercy: Check this out. Taken from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on how the CPI is calculated. The site is http://stats.bls.gov/cpi/faq.htm. This is their answer to the question: What goods and services does the CPI cover?
The CPI represents all goods and services purchased for consumption by urban households. We have classified all expenditue items into over 200 categories, arranged into 7 major groups. In addition, the CPI includes various user fees such as water and sewerage charges, auto registration fees, vehicle tolls, and so forth. Taxes that are directly associated with the prices of specific goods and services ( such as sales and excise taxes ) are also included. But, the CPI excludes taxes not directly associated with the purchase of consumer goods and services ( such as income and Social Security taxes ) .
The CPI does not include investment items ( such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and life insurance ) . These items relate to savings and not day-to-day living expenses.
I believe that the exclusion of these saving items is a funadamental flaw in thinking and is driving or helping to drive the fantastic overvaluation of stock prices. Inflation occurs when too much money is chasing too few goods or services. If we view paper as such then what we have is rampant infaltion in the financial economy which is not reflected in the reported inflation rate. As the prices of stocks rise so more cash is fed into the market and less into the real economy, hence lower inflation.
I see a self-reinforcing vicious circle where low inflation = low interest rates = high stock prices = more cash into stock market and less into real economy = low inflation = low interset rates = high stock prices etc.
If this thinking is correct it explains the apparent New Era paradox of GDP growth with low inflation. The question is when will this fundamental flaw hit home. When it does the market is certain to crash - all booms eventually go boom! The authorities have a number of options in dealing with this delayed inflation shock - print more money, issue more debt, devalue the dollar or some combination.
Whatever method is used it can only drive stocks down and do gold the world of good, particulary in light of the fact that a crash will not be confined to the US market. Turmoil in world currencies markets will surely be a consequence due to the depleted gold reserves of many CB's.
So don't forget that those billions of dollars worth of 401K deductions and mutal fund investments are actually consumer items and that US citizens are paying a lot more for less paper even if the Bureau of Labor Statistics is hiding it from them. If interset rates had been raised accordingly the frenzy would have stopped some time ago.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 13:37
Vieserre Risk to the Upside>(Risk to the Upside):
- Unfortunately, unlike others, I do not have the clairvoyance nor the wisdom to predict a future price of gold, but what I do know is that there must be reasons why NEM and NGC have recovered above their January lows; and ABX, HM, and PDG have recovered above their April lows in spite of bullion residing on substantially lower lows, and this would logically not be expected if bullion were going substantially lower over the intermediate term. I also know that demand in India should pick up in August ahead of Hindu Festivals which take place over a 4 month period and gold imports into India and Gulf are still strong about double of prior year. I also read that producers are reluctant to incur further hedges at these low levels. I also know that the lower gold goes, the greater the probability of a price reversal in view of both fundamental technical considerations; and that when considering the overwhelming consensus and future positioning to the downside, the risk would appear to be on the upside.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 13:34
SILENT MAJORITY Who Cares? (RJ, OJ, Blue Jay, let's call the whole thing off)>(Who Cares? (RJ, OJ, Blue Jay, let's call the whole thing off)):
- ALL: HEAR-HEAR the objectivity of WHO CARES. RJ's 10:50 post smacks of presumptuousness and omniscience. Perhaps I'm wrong, but RJ seems to be saying that anyone in disagreement with him belongs to the intellectually disadvangesd group known in some circles as the Ignoratti. Is he the owner of truth? Knowledge? We are all at Kitcos to discuss ideas, trading strategies, share knowledge and evaluate information. To disregard this is to lower ourselves again to the unproductive nonsense of hepcat.
Any registered investment advisor who would dictate his short-term trading practices to the Kitco public - without knowing the investment objectives and risk tolerance of each individual - would necessarily be subject to investigation by the authorities. We are here to learn from one another - and not to dictate or impose our opinion.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 13:34
bw Our leader:>(Our leader:):
- The wsj is offering the third volume of its long running Whitewater series. This has got to be the longest running most pervasive political scandal in the history of this country. Yet like five years of previews with no main feature, it lacks even a subclimax. I guess you cant fault the free press too much for averting their eyes from this evil. Many who have looked are no longer breathing or afraid to come out of hiding. When the history of this incredible period is written it may be noted that this political blindness occurred at the same time people were bidding the stock markets to insane heights and selling gold.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 13:33
nomercy D.A. - RJ>(D.A. - RJ):
- The market wisdom which you both provide, is appreciated and valued.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 13:32
EB D.A. i'm still diggin' you..don't worry MikeS you're still VEEERY tall...>(D.A. i'm still diggin' you..don't worry MikeS you're still VEEERY tall...):
- BobA 11:11, lurker 12:27...you will BOTH be missing some Savvy sh#t.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 13:22
- since there is some talk this ( my ) a.m. of trader emotions/psyche or whatever my 'good buddy' has some commentary on the subject ( for what it's worth ) http://www.trade-futures.com/reports.html
oldhand - GOOD stuff! as eric is howling in his coffee...
Away... to the funny-farm known as work...or should I golf? surf? Work indeed...
RJ-demi - Any comments on the PL today? Opened big only to blow off...a slight short term reversal of sorts? Well, there are still 2hrs in the markets so this question is in advance if it plays out that way. What did the screens tell you...and be nice, I'm suffering from 'Dartitis'.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 13:11
Who Cares? RJ, OJ, Blue Jay, let's call the whole thing off>(RJ, OJ, Blue Jay, let's call the whole thing off):
RJ - Yet another example of a group with a vested interest
Oh, HO HO!!! RJ has become a conspiracy theorist. : ) So,
RJ, if groups with vested interests can conspire to promote
a positive view gold, is it NOT possible that
groups with a vested interest
to promote a
of gold!!!! : )
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 13:00
- Earnings report on Glamis Gold.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 12:55
Skylark Something to Think About>(Something to Think About):
- The inbility of SWC to take advantage of sharply rising prices for its products because of poor hedge management should act as a reminder to investigate the hedge policy of a producer before investing and the danger of relying on the expertise of recommending pundits to accomplish this.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 12:52
- Housing - Inflation- apparently the cost of housing is not included in their CPI, calculations as the home is considered an investment. It is replaced by a rental value of sorts. Voila' there's no inflation.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 12:42
- LAN MAN: Re your at 9:04 Bema Gold. Silver & Gold report has it listed as a takeover candidate at $15 per share ( diluted? ) S&G Report indicates a reserve of 27.4 million ounces in Chile which can be produced at about $100 per ounce. Further, they say, 20 majors are looking at Bema and wouldn't be surprised to see a takeover before year-end. Hope that helps.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 12:40
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
- Bears: It's a never-ending source of wonder to me when someone gets his back up because someone else intimated that he can't see into the future! Academic statisticians -- and economists too, btw -- say the mkt is a random walk. And, by golly, they're right. We would all do well, therefore, to dismiss the seers, the gnomes, the mystics, the shrill, self-proclaimed experts, and practice a little money management and not forget that, above all, we must buy low and sell high. Do you think gold is going lower from its already multi-year low? Fine! I do hope that you base such a conclusion on more than your niggling squinting at yesterday's zigs and zags -- THE TREND -- indeed!
Osiyo! Cherokee! Brother! Prepare your bow! The great bull-buffalo herd approaches so near to our Kitco lodge that the ground itself trembles, and your warriors are assembled on their golden steeds eager for the glorious hunt! The squaws have boiled water in the great buffalo pot, and the children need blankets and clothes made from the bull's hide. The bucks will not wait, and some have painted themselves as for war! Cherokee! Osiyo!
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 12:38
DJ Keep on keepin' on>(Keep on keepin' on):
- RJ - I am one of those who believes gold still will play a significant role in the future, and have been investing accordingly. I find your input extremely helpful in balancing my inherent optimism, and I think I am making better decisions because of it. Thanks.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 12:36
I hope you feel better now.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 12:34
I have made the point about the government playing fast and loose with the 'inflation' statistics for some time. Here is a little tidbit from the National Association of Realtors which backs up this contention.
In the second quarter, the median home price was $123,700.
In the first quarter, the median home price was $119,400.
The median price of a starter home rose in the second quarter to $105,100 from $101,500 in the prior quarter.
Even though mortgage rates have declined, and income growth is has been strong, housing affordability is going down because housing prices are rising faster. The annualized rate of housing price inflation from these numbers is around 15%. Housing prices rises as reported by the government are around 2.5% per year. In the second quarter alone actual housing prices rose by about 150% of the yearly CPI measure of housing.
And the bonds played on .... doo doooo doo do doo do.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 12:27
- D.A. and your 12:00 post-Your one of the people whose posts
I'm going to be paying much less respect in the future. I'm
sure you don't care. I just wanted to express myself.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 12:10
So'Ham ( Ego ) >(( Ego ) ):
- RJ : Great 10:50am post ! Just a few hours ago, I felt like expressing here my personal disappointment why a few people choose to sort of fire personal attacks on your bearish views on GOLD.
The biggest challenge to have successful trading is to control our own ego, to have extrememly high level of self-discipline. Most often, it's expensive ( and hence painful ) not to flow with the trend. We have to ask ourselves : What is more important in trading - making money or being right ? So often we would be right but still lose money because we are just that little bit early in picking that secular or significant bottom or the top.
The more we can master our ego, the better we can trade. The less we have a fixation that the market MUST go UP or DOWN, the better we can flow where the actions really are. Our personal opionion ( or bias ? ) on any financial market must be validated or refuted by the market action itself. I personally have suffered a lot financially by wanting to be right than to admit being wrong early and reverse my positions so that I can at least break even or even make a killing. Sure, the fear of abrupt panic selling OR buying is powerful, just like what happened last Tues when zinc lost 18 per cent of its value in an hour on the London Metals Exchange or the sharp reversal of Copper few weeks ago. Don't trust the ego, trust the market !
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 12:05
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 12:00
Your point about the Russian CB 'acquisition' of gold seems to come down to this. It is bearish for gold that the Russian CB's have acquired this gold for they will now certainly sell it on the open market. The counter argument is simply that if the Russian CB's did not acquire, purchase, confiscate or whatever, this gold would with 100% certainty be heading for the market. Even if the Russian CB's keep just a single ton this will be more bullish than had they done nothing at all. Whether they will in fact sell any of this gold is also open to debate. The only insight that I can offer with this regard is that Russian GDP growth seems to have turned positive in the last quarter for the first time since the collapse of Communism. Perhaps their state of desparation is not quite as desparate as it has been in the past.
As for all the other stuff about people being right, wrong or otherwise, who cares. This is a 'discussion' group where things are discussed. It is the presentation of views and the factual content to support those views which is important. This among other things is why the Catman had such a hard time here. To just say X will happen with no supporting view leaves the rest of us readers bereft of a response, irrespective of whether X actually occurs.
As for me being a cheerleader for gold, damn right, I'm long and I hope it goes up. When I'm short, I hope it goes down. If I'm flat I hope it goes to some extreme where I can make a good bet. That about covers it.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 11:55
Duncan RJ (10:50) Great Post>(RJ (10:50) Great Post):
- RJ - Great post! Are you presently still bearish? If so, what do you consider a likely bottom?
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 11:50
oldhand in school>(in school):
- Since the subject of Women are from Venus has already been broached, I thought that the following might be of some interest ( even though it has nothing to do with gold ) :
Subject: Fwd: FW: men mars / women venus
You know that book Men are from Mars, Women from Venus'? Well, here's a prime example of that:
RECEIVED FROM AN ENGLISH PROFESSOR:
This assignment was actually turned in by two of my English students:
R ( last name deleted ) and G ( last name deleted )
In-class Assignment for Wednesday
Today we will experiment with a new form called the tandem story. The process is simple. Each person will pair off with the person sitting to his or her immediate right. One of you will then write the first paragraph of a short story. The partner will read the first paragraph and then add another paragraph to the story. The first person will then add a third paragraph, and so on back and forth. Remember to re-read what has been written each time in order to keep the story coherent. The story is over when both agree a conclusion has been reached.
At first, Laurie couldn't decide which kind of tea she wanted. The camomile, which used to be her favorite for lazy evenings at
home, now reminded her too much of Carl, who once said, in happier times, that he liked camomile. But she felt she must
now, at all costs, keep her mind off Carl. His possessiveness was suffocating, and if she thought about him too much her
asthma started acting up again. So camomile was out of the question.
Meanwhile, Advance Sergeant Carl Harris, leader of the attack squadron now in orbit over Skylon 4, had more important things
to think about than the neuroses of an air-headed asthmatic bimbo named Laurie with whom he had spent one sweaty night
over a year ago. A.S. Harris to Geostation 17, he said into his transgalactic communicator. Polar orbit established. No sign
of resistance so far ... . But before he could sign off, a bluish particle beam flashed out of nowhere and blasted a hole through
his ship's cargo bay. The jolt from the direct hit sent him flying out of his seat and across the cockpit.
He bumped his head and died almost immediately, but not before he felt one last pang of regret for psychically brutalizing the
one woman who had ever had feelings for him. Soon afterwards, Earth stopped its pointless hostilities towards the peaceful
farmers of Skylon 4. Congress Passes Law Permanently Abolishing War and Space Travel, Laurie read in her newspaper one
morning. The news simultaneously excited her and bored her. She stared out the window, dreaming of her youth -- when the
days had passed unhurriedly and carefree, with no newspapers to read, no television to distract her from her sense of innocent
wonder at all the beautiful things around her. Why must one lose one's innocence to become a woman?, she pondered
Little did she know, but she had less than 10 seconds to live. Thousands of miles above the city, the Anuludrian mothership
launched the first of its lithium fusion missiles. The dim-witted wimpy peaceniks who pushed the Unilateral Aerospace
Disarmament Treaty through Congress had left Earth a defenseless target for the hostile alien empires who were determined to
destroy the human race. Within two hours after the passage of the treaty the Anuludrian ships were on course for Earth,
carrying enough firepower to pulverize the entire planet. With no one to stop them, they swiftly initiated their diabolical plan.
The lithium fusion missile entered the atmosphere unimpeded. The President, in his top-secret mobile submarine headquarters
on the ocean floor off the coast of Guam, felt the inconceivably massive explosion which vaporized Laurie and 85 million other
Americans. The President slammed his fist on the conference table. We can't allow this! I'm going to veto that treaty! Let's
blow'em out of the sky!
This is absurd. I refuse to continue this mockery of literature. My writing partner is a violent, chauvinistic, semi-literate
Yeah? Well, you're a self-centered tedious neurotic whose attempts at writing are the literary equivalent of Valium.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 11:50
Bob A to DJ>(to DJ):
- It is sad, looks like cost of prod. and prod. increases are necessary.
The stk. is owned by Fid Sel Am Gld, touted recently by J. Dines, Dizard of Nat. Review and this morning posted here recommended by silver and gold report. I guess I'll stay with it awhile longer, thanks for your info.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 11:48
- Y2K plus more in store. Dow 3600.
Read it all at Nick Chase
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 11:26
- Korea...The Aftermath, Part I, Mass Unemployment
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 11:20
- RJ: I always appreciate your comments-like those of your 10:50 post. Your contributions add a neccessary balance to the voices heard here.
I am one of those people you mentioned who is holding some expensive
gold because I listened only to one set of opinions. Don't stop posting
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 11:11
Bob @...Mooney & RJ>(@...Mooney & RJ):
- Monney: I agree that Glenn's contribution and eye-witness account and interpretation of the gold action from the COMEX pit is one of the best on this thread and his insights are extremely valuable.
RJ: I appologize if I have not represented your views well. I don't save your posts or spend much time reading them so you are fair in your assessment.
I have a mortgage on my house and have put my money were my mouth is ( long gold stks ) . I am extremely confident that your tone of analytical superiority will fade in due course as gold market fundamentals overtake speculative management.
You are confident that gold will establish a new low soon ?
I bet you that gold spot will not drop below $313 in August. My consideration would be retirement of my Kitco name handle if I lose and your Kitco handle if you lose.
Do you accept this modest nominal wager ?
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 10:51
EB MikeS. That's because...>(MikeS. That's because...):
- women are from Venus?
Away...to Mars...to probe...for Platinum...
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 10:50
- D. A.
- My 7/30/97 11:16 post of CNN London Bridge news was simply an another example of a group with a vested interest in making people believe the gold picture is not as bad as it appears. The purchase of 127 tons of gold by the Russian CB with the exchange of a worthless currency is less a purchase than outright confiscation. Rather than adding to a bullish picture, these tons of gold will certainly find there way onto the world market soon, as the Russians must use their precious metals and their oil to exchange for necessities like food. No country on earth recognizes any worth to the ruble.
That some hold up this purchase as a positive factor for gold exceeds misinformation an approaches an outright lie. When I point this out, with zero commentary on my part, you respond with hogwash and, if this is the best negative spin that the shorts have to offer, they are in deep trouble..
I wish to put no spin whatsoever on the bull/bear picture of gold. I simply report what is and trade accordingly. I am making money on the drop in gold, later, when the price turns around, I will make money on the way back up. To paint a picture of shorts putting a negative spin, is disingenuous at best.
My opinions on the current state of the gold market hurt no one. I report my trading strategies but advise no one to follow. Quite apart for the incessant pronouncements that gold will turn around soon, this is the start of a major bull run in gold, and the stock market has reached the top and will crash soon. Anyone who has followed the advise of many here to buy gold and sell stocks, has been hurt tremendously. These hapless investors now find themselves holding gold that is worth far less than they paid for it, and have missed out on the greatest profits the equities have ever offered.
These same shameless promoters of gold never stop to say, Hey, I was wrong, maybe gold isn't such a good buy now, maybe stocks do look pretty good. No, with each enormously misguided pronouncement, they shout again and again, that OK, well maybe gold went down, but buy it now, for it is sure to turn around soon. These people will continue these recommendations until gold does hit bottom and turn around. They will then have a group pat on the back for how wise their words were. They will not admit that they have been making these recommendations while gold dropped $100 in price.
I have reviewed the statements of many here and their past posts on Kitco. They have been proven wrong consistently and still cling to the belief that they have wise words and sage advise. I will stand by anything I have ever posted here, as will many others, but there is still a vocal group here that suffers from a very serious case of denial and refuse to acknowledge what is right before their eyes. It is for these that I have coined the word, ignorality, for these folk do seem to ignore the reality of market conditions.
D.A., while you have been a vocal cheerleader for gold, I do not count you among the ignoralists, nor would I use this brush to paint George Cole and many others in this group. The people who are guilty of this consistently bad advice know who they are and, if ever confronted by their previous pronouncements, would probably not even have the good grace to admit they were mistaken. Instead they will defend their mistakes to the grave.
I encourage all here to review prior posts from those whose advice seems sound and decide for yourselves whether they are a sage or a stopped clock.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 10:49
vronsky LET’S PASS THE SUPER IRA BILL>(LET’S PASS THE SUPER IRA BILL):
- Proposed Super IRA Bill might increase US gold coin demand by $10 billion this year! The purpose of the Bill is to stimulate savings. Passage will boast bullion prices:
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 10:49
DJ Yes - village idiots>(Yes - village idiots):
- Speed, Bob A. - SWC lost 3% in Q2. By my calculations, the hedge prices are 18% less than average selling prices in Q2. They have hedged nearly all of 1997 palladium production and roughly 2/3 of 1998 palladium production. They should have a little platinum available for sales at market prices in 1997, and have hedged only about 10% of 1998 production. Nevertheless, platinum represents only 20% of their production. Unless costs change dramatically, I can't see how they can make any money at these prices. So sad.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 10:42
2 Office talk>(Office talk):
- Low unemployment, high Dow, great corporate earnings, low interest rates. Have we ever had such prosperity, coupled with such economic anxiety, together at once? Everyone is suspicious - waiting for the other shoe to drop. Curious.
Perhaps it is the corporate downsizing, the death of company loyalty, the omnipresent dog-eat-doggishness of the business world. Noone is loyalty to anyone or anything, and wealth, made an end in itself, is an unsatisfying lover.
This remains - why is everyone so nervous ( not just here on this discussion group - everyone is nervous ) . Although we are all happy to enjoy the prosperity while it lasts, nobody believes it.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 10:11
Au99.9 Mooney @ Wordsworth>(Mooney @ Wordsworth):
- Spiss! Most eloquent and fitting. Alas, methinks, such wordpower is far too taxing and certainly beyond the collective comprehension of our illustrious treasury lads and lassies.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 10:08
bILLd White Metals through the roof>(White Metals through the roof):
- WOW..Look at ag ( silver ) , pl and pa this morning...!!! Go SWC and SSC ( white metal plays!! ) Could this be the beginning of something BIG?
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 10:07
Oliver @ The strange meaning of words, coin,money,debt,sell..>(@ The strange meaning of words, coin,money,debt,sell..):
Where Borrowing = Sell
U.S. to Sell $38 Bln of Securities Next Week
WASHINGTON - With the budget deficit falling, the Treasury Department has announced it will bring another $38 billion of debt securities to market next week.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 10:04
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
- Title should have read __Jones' lawyers to drag every woman who has come within 1,000 feet of Bill Clinton into court__ Guess you can't use double quotes in Bart's email address box.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 09:53
Ron Jones' lawyers to >(Jones' lawyers to ):
- White House spinning away on Willey: http://www.drudgereport.com
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 09:28
- They figure that by saying it often enough Inflation is dead less than 2%, we buy it. If I may, hogwash! Sooner or later the Chefs are going to get caught in their own web. Our standard of living keeps dropping because we cannot afford to buy...oh inflation is dead, I forgot.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 09:26
Lan Man To RJ - Here is the Actual Meaning of COIN and MONEY>(To RJ - Here is the Actual Meaning of COIN and MONEY):
- This is from Noah Webster's 1828 Dictionary:
1. A corner; a jutting point, as of a wall.
Rustic coins, stones jutting from a wall for
new buildings to be joined to.
2. A wedge for raising or lowering a piece of
3. A wedge or piece of wood to lay between casks on
COIN, n. Primarily, the die employed for stamping money. Hence,
1. Money stamped; a piece of metal, as gold, silver, copper, or other metal, converted into money, by impressing on it marks, figures or characters. To make good money, these impressions must be made under the authority of government. That which is stamped without authority is called false or counterfeit coin. Formerly, all coin was made by hammering; but it is now impressed by a machine or mill.
Current coin is coin legally stamped and
circulating in trade.
Ancient coins are chiefly those of the Jews, Greeks and Romans, which are kept in cabinets as curiosities.
2. In architecture, a kind of die cut diagonally, after the manner of a flight of a stair case, serving at bottom to support columns in a level, and at top to correct the inclination of an entablature supporting a vault.
3. That which serves for payment.
The loss of present advantage to flesh and
blood is repaid in a nobler coin.
1. To stamp a metal, and convert it into money; to
2. To make; as, to coin words.
3. To make; to forge; to fabricate; in an ill sense; as, to coin a lie; to coin a fable.
1. The act, art or practice of stamping money.
2. Coin; money coined; stamped and legitimated metal for a circulating medium.
3. Coins of a particular stamp; as the coinage of
4. The charges or expense of coining money.
5. A making; new production; formation; as the
coinage of words.
6. Invention; forgery; fabrication.
This is the very coinage of your brain.
MONEY, n. plu. moneys.
1. Coin; stamped metal; any piece of metal, usually gold, silver or copper, stamped by public authority, and used as the medium of commerce. We sometimes give the name of money to other coined metals,and to any other material which rude nations use a medium of trade. But among modern commercial nations, gold, silver and copper are the only metals used for this purpose. Gold and silver, containing great value in small compass, and being therefore of easy conveyance, and being also durable and little liable to diminution by use, are the most convenient metals for coin or money, which is the representative of commodities of all kinds, of lands, and of every thing that is capable of being transferred in commerce.
2. Bank notes or bills of credit issued by authority, and exchangeable for coin or redeemable, are also called money; as such notes in modern times represent coin, and are used as a substitute for it. If a man pays in hand for goods in bank notes which are current, he is said to pay in ready money.
3. Wealth; affluence.
Money can neither open new avenues to pleasure, nor block up the passages of anguish.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 09:21
- Is Silver trying to lead the way again? Big two day move so far!
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 09:13
Mooney @Au99.9 - Reprise!>(@Au99.9 - Reprise!):
- Sorry - Since the original post was about your Aussi bankers, here is my quote of the day.
A bank is a place where they lend you an umbrella in fair weather and
ask for it back when it rains. ------Robert Frost
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 09:08
- Au99.9 - Here are your word definitions from yesterday.
Redmod: Hasty, rash. Spiss: Thick, dense. Sloomy: Lazy, dull, sleepy.
As you rightly gathered some of my recent verbage has gaelic origins, but much is also merely archaeic English or other words from the last few centuries that have fallen to disuse. Many deserve to be brought back.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 09:07
For those believing that we are in the midst of or the beginning of a deflation, how does this square with the following:
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 09:04
Lan Man @Squeeeeeze is a coming to BGO?>(@Squeeeeeze is a coming to BGO?):
- Highlights from Bema Gold 1996 Annual Report
In conjunction with the Refugio Mine Gold Loan agreement, the company is required to hedge enough production to cover its 50% share of projected operating and capital costs at the Refugio Mine for a two and one-half year period on an *on-going basis*.
As a result of the longer than expected start-up period at the Refugio Mine. Amax Gold funded $2million of the company's 50% share of CMM's additional cash requirements during this period by way of a loan to Bema Gold. On Feb. 14, 1995, CMM drew down a $85 million Refugio Mine gold loan, of which the company's 50% share amounted to $42.5 million. The gold loan was based on a gold price of $380. per oz for a total borrowing of 223,683 oz. On Dec. 31, 1996, CMM made the first of ten semi-annual gold loan payments of which the company's portion was $4.25 million.
Gold loans are initially recorded at the gold price received on the draw down date and are revalued at the *market price* of gold prevailing at each balance sheet date. The unrealized gain or loss resulting from the mark-to-market adjustment is recorded as either a deferred revenue or a deferred charge and amortized over the remaining term of the loan.
The company has the right, after Spt.30, 1997, to force redemption or conversion of all outstanding convertible debentures at a conversion price of $2.05 per share and currently intends to do so.
There is currently $22.7 million worth of convertible debentures outstanding. Between the oustanding gold loans, hedging and convertibles coming due ( ie over 10 million shares coming onto the market in Sept of 1997 ) other companies such as Stillwater Mining don't look so bad...
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 09:00
- Thursday July 31 7:37 AM EDT
Implats says NUM to strike at refineries
JOHANNESBURG, July 31 ( Reuter ) - Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd said on Thursday that the National Union of Mineworkers
had issued formal notification of a strike at Implats platinum refineries which will start on Friday, August 1.
More news for related categories and industries: mining, international.
Additional news and quotes: Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd - IMPAY.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 08:54
I believe that in this case the company has repurchased the stock on the open market to keep the exercise of employee options from diluting the stock. When the employees exercise their options the company must present them with the shares. To do this, all they need do is issue them. Kind of like when the Fed prints money. In order for the share supply not to grow as a result of this operation, some companies will go to the open market and make a purchase to offset the amount issued. As to the question of whether or not a company could hold its own shares as an asset I believe the answer is yes. For example, many company pensions are financed with shares of the company. Generally such details as the composition of the pension plan are not routinely divulged so I don't know where one would get the info.
The point of my post was not so much to question the accounting, but to point out that from a cash flow basis, there isn't any. Its all being used to pay employees. If you look at their balance sheet you will see an increase in cash of around 3.5Billion yoy but there is also a corresponding increase in shares outstanding by more than 300 million. One could look at this past year and say thay MSFT issued 300 million shares for which they were payed $3.5Billion and the rest of the activities were irrelavent.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 08:47
Speed @leaving to face Houston traffic>(@leaving to face Houston traffic):
- Bob A: The SWC quarterly report is out. Try Pointcast, or the WSJ interactive ( it's free for two weeks ) . Zach's has some info also. If you need URLs, I'll try to post at lunch or late this evening. Good trading to all.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 08:43
Bob A atwork>(atwork):
- to Speed
Thanks for the info,other than the annual report I don't have any #'s.
I'm a lot more comfortable with my stk. position now after both yourand Donald's input.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 08:37
I have an urge to respond with great sarcasm but the weather is too nice and its the last day of the month and our stuff is going up. So in a kind and gentle fashion, I ask most humbly, what gossamer thread of logic connects the world supply / demand balance of gold and the goods, in this case the ( insert pejorative adjective of choice ) ruble, which a buyer or even a confiscator, has exchanged for his gold?
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 08:21
- Donald: Your 7:40 was good. Keep 'em coming.
Mike Sheller: Have your considered Demi Moore in Navy Seals? : )
Women will never best men at breaking things and killing people.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 08:17
Mike Sheller obligato>(obligato):
- On an even more profound and immediate note, while we are paying homage to our great cultural benefactors, let me once again thank Bart for the maintenance of this unique forum. Don't want to take my fun for granted. And thanks for the occasional sweeping up. The return of this site to its previous lustre as a Cheers of the intellect and the marketplace is noticeable, and appreciated. Sic semper felinis!
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 08:16
Bob A to Donald>(to Donald):
- Thank you
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 08:13
- Bob A: I have only begun to crunch the numbers on SWC. They are bringing more production on line and the 3rd quarter should show a turn-around. They did forward hedge, and they got caught by the extreme backwardation in the market. Also, the grade of ore being mined and milled has dropped. Their increased production means that they should have Platinum to sell at spot by the end of the year and next year should have roughly 80,000 ounces of metal, Pl and Pa, to sell at spot, besides that which is committed to forward contracts. The 80k number is back of the envelope calc, I'll try to firm it up later. Reading between the lines, the village idiot who sold forward ALL of this years production has been replaced by a committee. They should look much better by the 4th quarter. Yesterday's action showed very heavy volume, and a price drop. I'm working too hard to move fast on this one. I need time to crunch some more numbers. Any input is appreciated.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 08:11
Mike Sheller Founding Fathers.com>(Founding Fathers.com):
- RJ and DONALD bring up a debate bordering upon the sublimely metaphysical. As in all true metaphysics, the most seemingly abstract points are in reality profoundly real considerations in our daily lives. There is always much danger inherent in assigning motives and interpretations to the pronouncements of the giants of the past. On the one hand, we are obliged to devour the writings and thoughts of our great mentors, be they political or spiritual, as though they were food from the gods ( which they are...food for the mind and soul ) . Understanding the mindset of our civilizational mentors is conducive to understanding where they were coming from and what they intended us to know. On the other hand, we must be careful with what we receive from them, personally, beyond the written word. It is always a human tragedy when men contend to bloodshed over the interpretation of clearly divine and inspired doctrine. Women don't do that.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 08:10
George Cole 2000>(2000):
- Good discussion of the year 2000 problem at: ftp://fennel.assumption.edu/view/1997/VIEW0797.HTM
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 08:05
- BOB A: The Silver & Gold Report ( received today, postmarked July 23 ) feels SWC is a good buy at $21 or lower. The reasoning cited is that Russia is deteriorating and that South African mines are on the verge of being shut down.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 08:01
- irrational=seems to better describe present stocks valuations as it is illogical, unsound, fallacious, inconceivable, untenable, and wrong. Time will tell, as trends change. The game is in the 4th quarter. Defense wins championships. Go gold!
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 07:56
George Cole firstname.lastname@example.org>(email@example.com):
- Dollar weak this morning. Foreign stock markets fairly strong. October gold up 70 cents. Looks like an interesting day!
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 07:53
Bob A atwork>(atwork):
- Any opinions as to near term price action of SWC. Plat and Pall are up and in short supply. SWC reported to be locked in at lower prices for the rest of the year and therefore will not benefit from rising metal price. I've never owned a co. in this predicament and would be interested in anyones opinion.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 07:40
- RJ: I am very comfortable with the Supreme Court and the decision of 9 men ( Sandra Day O'Connor may object to your use of the word men ) to decide these things. History shows it is the best possible system, and over time, the worst mistakes get reversed. I can not accept your position that You can never know what was in the hearts of those who framed this great document The Mississippi Scheme and the South Sea Bubble ( 1720 ) was as recent history to them as the Crash of '29 is to us. As I said before hyperinflation was contemporary to them. They were familiar with the writings of John Locke, they understood the economic nature of war and the abuses of taxation. They recognized that economic stability was the key to the success of the undertaking and they clearly chose gold and silver as the basis for that stability.
The Civil War, World Wars I and II and the Depression put strains on the system. Americans will accept severe hardship as part of a just governments efforts to deal with those emergencies. They expect a just government to return to normal after the emergency is over. It was done after the Civil War but it was not easy. The Depression of 1873 was the result It was done after WWI and the Depression of the 30's was the result. WWII, my generation, ending so close to the Depression, led many to believe that it could not be handled so the hard decisions have been postponed. Also, a good argument can be made that WWII stretched from 1939 to 1989 and we are only now dealing with the economic aftermath. Silver and gold are more than monetary and industrial metals. They are equally political metals. The decisions involving them always have a political root. Being long or short gold is more than a decision about the profit of the specific trade and whether you eat hamburger or steak next week. It is a equally a political decision about what kind of a country you want to live in. It may even be a decision about whether or not this democratic experiment continues beyond our lifetimes.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 07:25
Tortfeasor Joke of the day>(Joke of the day):
- I see gold and silver making a big move up today as well as all the commodities. When Albuquerque is still having rain around the clock something is weird and something is up. That is what Cherokee would call flux. We've got some of that folks and its going to bug off on the markets. Here's the joke of the morning. Long, but I thought kind of funny.
A man walked in to Joe's Barber Shop for his regular haircut.
As he snips away, Joe asks What's up?
The man proceeds to explain he's taking a vacation to Rome.
ROME?! Joe says, Why would you want to go there? It's a
crowded dirty city full of Italians! You'd be crazy to go to Rome!
So how ya getting there?
We're taking TWA, the man replies.
TWA?! yells Joe. They're a terrible airline. Their planes are
old, their flight attendants are ugly and they're always late! So
where you staying in Rome?
The man says We'll be at the downtown International
That DUMP?! says Joe. That's the worst hotel in the city!
The rooms are small, the service is surly and slow and
they're overpriced! So whatcha doing when you get there?
The man says We're going to go see the Vatican and hope to
see the Pope.
HA! That's rich! laughs Joe. You and a million other people
trying to see him. He'll look the size of an ant. Boy, good luck
on THIS trip. You're going to need it!
A month later, the man comes in for his regular haircut. Joe
says, Well, how did that trip to Rome turn out? Betcha TWA
gave you the worst flight of your life!
No, quite the opposite explained the man. Not only were
we on time in one of their brand new planes, but it was full
and they bumped us up to first class. The food and wine were
wonderful, and I had a beautiful 28 year old flight attendant
who waited on me hand and foot!
Hmmm, Joe says, Well, I bet the hotel was just like I
No, quite the opposite! They'd just finished a $25 million
remodelling. It's the finest hotel in Rome, now. They were o
overbooked, so they apologized and gave us the Presidential
suite for no extra charge!
Well, Joe mumbles, I KNOW you didn't get to see the
Actually, we were quite lucky. As we toured the Vatican, a
Swiss guard tapped me on the shoulder and explained the
Pope likes to personally meet some of the visitors, and if I'd
be so kind as to step into this private room and wait, the Pope
would personally greet me. Sure enough, after 5 minutes
the Pope walked through the door and shook my hand. I knelt
down as he spoke a few words to me.
Impressed, Joe asks, Tell me, please! What'd he say?
Oh, not much really. Just 'Who gave you that strinking lousy
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 07:07
- Agreed, however the coins represent a further marketing scheme which keeps gold in the limelight in a region who has unsatiable appetite for the shiny stuff.
I referred to more physical buying in addendum to the expected purchases of fabricators & jewellers to stock up during August. I believe that this factor alone will discourage any smart short seller to go and find a more lucrative fishing pond. Some though, feel that the trend is their friend and will stubbornly persist as it has worked in the past. They are pissing in the wind, as the trend is changing. Newmont send a clear signal in the last few days, as they elected to close their hedge position NOW! why wouldn't they wait and CAPITALIZE some more? after all they're one of the lowest cost producers. I admire the indestinable fortitude that the short sellers possess as their investment strategy is razor edge, however their strength is also their weakness, as they continue to dare & challenge with often disastrous results. It takes a smart person to make money but a smarter one to keep it! If I were a short, I'd cash in & keep it.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 07:06
- Iguess there's plenty of palladium around. That's why the price is rising. :- )
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 06:48
IDT IDT up early>(IDT up early):
- DA: That was an interesting post on Microsoft's stock repurchase. I'm curious though about the fate of those repurchased stock. If all went to employees as options and benefits then I agree the stock should be considered expenses. Do companies sometimes hold the stocks, in which case the stocks could be considered assets? Do companies sometimes retire the stocks ( ie remove them from the existence ) to enhance share value? If either of the last two options are possible, how can you determine what becomes of the stock repurchases? Is that evident from the financial statement or do you have to call the company, etc.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 05:33
Who Cares? I'm a little teapot - short and stout>(I'm a little teapot - short and stout):
Electron - find yourself a sexy fluorine atom.
Hepcat - creepy and sad. Banished to dark underworld, frozen into
the stasis of Web Resource link like something out of Superman movie.
Interest rates of 4.5% - more possible than most believe, I think.
I'm pretty darn sure we're dealing with a macro-environment in
the financial system where K = x * y, where K is an unknown constant,
x is total debt, y is average interest rate on debt. In order to
keep the bubble going, i.e. debt increasing, then average interest
rate must decrease.
Panda - who's buying bonds? That's a darn good question. : ) The
people selling gold? BHAHAAHAAA!!
I think the only thing that will reverse this is when 'investors'
get tired of being dicked around. Currently, there's something like
$3-4 of promises, i.e. debt being issued for each $1 of real goods
and services produced. Ergo, 3/4 of those promises must be broken.
Who will be holding that 1/4?
And. As more and more promises saturate the system, they dilute
the value of PRE-EXISTING promises. Ergo, people holding pre-existing
promises are pretty darn stupid to not defend the value of what
they currently have.
RJ - Chill, chum. It's the L.A. thing. The people there create
a bad environment, it gets into your head. Makes you tense.
Irritable. Like... like a bad short. : )
I'm in a darn good mood, considering it's 3 am. As a reluctant
teacher, fleeing the ruins of unjust career implosion, I'm PRETTY
darn pleased with my students tonight. They actually did real
OO programming tonight.
IMHO, what *should* happen, is that we should see a whopper and
sudden gold spike, i.e. a warning to governments, from investors,
to honor the value of their promises. I think the hard part will
deciding on what to do AFTER the panic spike.
I have to deflationary signs I watch for that I place great stock
in. The 1893 depression was preceded by a wave of railroad worker
layoffs, railroads being the equivalent of Microsoft/Intel now.
So. I watch for layoffs at Microsoft and Intel. The posting on
the real PE of 650 for Microsoft was breathtaking. : )
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 05:18
- I see gold turned around overnight....EBN Gold up a dime and Silver up a cent...It's time for the Scaterie Island express...See ya latter dudes!
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 04:13
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 04:11
EB For all who have NOT read this before...and to 'some' who NEED to read it again...myself included>(For all who have NOT read this before...and to 'some' who NEED to read it again...myself included):
Go placidly amid the noise
and the haste, and remember what peace there
may be in silence. As far as possible,
without surrender, be on good terms
with all persons. Speak your truth
quietly and clearly, and listen to
others, even to the dull and ignorant;
they too have their story. Avoid loud
and aggresive persons; they are
vexations to the spirit. If you compare
yourself with others you may
become vain or bitter, for always
there will be greater and lesser
persons than yourself. Enjoy your
achievements as well as your plans.
Keep interested in you own career,
however humble; it is a real possession
in the changing fortunes of time.
Exercise caution in your business
affairs, for the world is
full of trickery. But let this not blind
you to what virtue there is; many
persons strive for high ideals, and
everywhere life is full of heroism. Be
yourself. Especially do not feign
affection. Neither be cynical about
love; for in the face of all aridity and
disenchantment it is as perennial as
the grass. Take kindly the counsel of
the years, gracefully surrendering
the things of youth. Nurture strength
of spirit to shield you in sudden
misfortune. But do not distress your
self with dark imaginings. Many
fears are born of fatigue and loneliness.
Beyond a wholesome discipline,
be gentle with yourself. You
are a child of the universe no less
than the trees and the stars; you
have a right to be here. And whether
or not it is clear to you, no doubt the
universe is unfolding as it should.
Therefore be at peace with God,
whatever you conceive Him to be.
And whatver your labors and aspirations,
in the noisy confusion of life,
keep peace in your soul. With all its
sham, drudgery,and broken dreams,
it is still a beautiful world. Be
Cheerful. Strive to be happy.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 03:37
EB since I am Omega man and since spot PL seems to be increasing lets keep up the innocent and innocuous ramble>(since I am Omega man and since spot PL seems to be increasing lets keep up the innocent and innocuous ramble):
- Byron - No T.V... for TWENTY years? I couldn't/wouldn't do it. There is too much information for me to miss. But at least you remember Barney Miller. Right? All in the family? Bonanza? Jacques Cousteau?
NoMercy - HERE do you want to go? Typo? or some other meaning that went over my head...most likely the latter.
Tort - Do you know the one about 'Shorty's bar and grill, Albequerque ( sp ) , New Mexico'?
Ted - I envy a good sunRISE coming FROM the ocean. But you should see my sunSETS Leaving the ocean.
D.A. - 20:37
JIN - printed out both 3 comments = printed out ALL 3 comments; to digest = digesting. But keep up the good posts and don't skip your grammar classes, you are doing great.
All - I have but one more post after this...if you care to stay with me...away
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 03:09
EB @Donald...20:37...especially 21:37...and all posts...>(@Donald...20:37...especially 21:37...and all posts...):
- Thank-you. You have become an integral part ( as well as a profuse[in an enlightening and good, copious way] of this discussion group. I appreciate your point of views ( I am still digesting your DE-flation scenario, which is viable ) . You offer a wisdom and sagacity that cannot be overlooked by ANY means or anyone. My bet is that you have a plethora of stories to tell to your grandkids, if you have any. And if you do, be sure to serve them PLENTY of Bosco. My Grandfather did and I will always love him dearly for that. ( I mean all this with a great deal of respect ) .
And tell them this ( my first boss at the pizza place told me this and put me on track - before working in the 'forced-family-labor-camp' ) : Count the pennies...the dollars will count themselves.
Thanks Mr. Donald Dude...away
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 02:31
Bond James Bond>(James Bond):
GOLDFINGER: Well? Let's hear it.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 02:28
- Hey, Goldfinger! Your out to lunch, man!
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 01:39
- Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
Alert to all Martians: 8% in past 10 days!
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 01:27
- YOUR ATTENTION PLEASE. NOW ALL BE SEATED. THANK YOU! LADIES AND GENTLEMAN MAY I HAVE YOUR FULL ATTENTION? YOU HAVE BEEN SOLD OUT !!! MORE TO COME LATER FROM YOU KNOW WHO GOLDFINGER. ALSO FAST EDDIE IT'S GLITTER NOT GITTER. REMEMBER ALL THAT GLITTERS IS GOLD EDDIE.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 00:42
Fast Eddie @fasteddie>(@fasteddie):
- Goldfinger Where are you. I see the light at the end of the tunnel, but it's going to be a long trip. Fast Eddie can't wait that long. Point the way GOLDFINGER I need the gitter. Advise !
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 00:42
Auric @Operation GRAND SLAM>(@Operation GRAND SLAM):
( Just for the record, GOLDFINGER is not me, though his first name may coincide with my handle ) Having said that, I am looking forward to what he has to say!
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 00:35
Jack Good Advice>(Good Advice):
ELECTRON, BOB and ARDEN thanx for your logical thought out posts. I bet old Ted and Andy are perspiring somewhat. Arden; maybe the shorts will cover by selling there lofty DOW stocks. All, Prime Resources Group ( PRU ) will start trading on the Amex tomorrow; it's one of the gold/silver producers that make money. Sorry to hear about ECO.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 00:23
Mooney @Bob - Re.Glenn>(@Bob - Re.Glenn):
- Bob - Although I know he does not need defending, I must speak up for my friend Glenn, on your query to him tonight, as I know after a long day and a few long posts he must be beat. When you posted Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:36
Bob ( @... Day Traders dilema: Is it a Bear or a Bull, ? ) :
Glenn: I understand your position but find it difficult to
reconcile. You are both a Bear and Bull on gold depending on
what the elves indicate what may be the best choice for a
you were asking valid questions, perhaps, on your interpretations of the recent posts by Glenn. However, the background info that I have to offer you is that Glenn e-mailed me in private about two months ago and was warning me that in the intermediate term he was decidedly bearish on gold. He was in fact trying to save me money by advising not to buy calls at any time in the near term ( remember this was about 2 months ago ) . I feel sometimes feel sad for him being so close to the trees, ( as you so rightly imply ) , for it was only a short time ago that he told us precisely ( in a gripping blow by blow ( Jeff Beck ) account of one day's market action on the Comex ) at what particular point he put on his shorts ( around $350 ) but then when gold had only gone done about $8 he covered. Daytrading can be hazardous to your nerves as well as your finances, as anyone who has tried it will tell you.
Au99.9 - If your tuned in I'll give you your answer tommorrow.
Goodnight Glenn, wherever you might be!
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 00:22
- THE GOLDEN RULE. HE WHO HAS THE GOLD MAKES THE RULES.
MORE TO COME LATER FROM THE ONE AND ONLY GOLDFINGER WATCH OUT SHORTS.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 00:08
RJ Johnny Cat?>(Johnny Cat?):
- Stimpy @ 23:27
-I just had a revelation……. Isn’t Johnny Cat a popular brand of cat litter? Hmmmmmmmmm….
Is there something Freudian going on here?
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 00:07
Rhyme @Big Volume>(@Big Volume):
- The late runup in the XAU and the big volume trades in stocks such as Abx today seem to be a distinct change from the pattern of late.Any comments.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 00:01
RJ I’m all better now. >(I’m all better now. ):
- Pressure ( @cooker ) : 23:42
Think I’ll hit the sack early, gonna’ spend some quality time cuddling my shorts.
- Date: Thu Jul 31 1997 00:01
- And finally, the beleagured, perennial gold bugs bid
the precious yellow up a mere .80 in nervous trading. When
will they ever learn?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 23:57
- Re: Nomercy's 21:03 post. I wouldn't get too excited about the
physical buying ahead for India's golden independence anniversary
commemorative coins. If they reach the upper end of their target-
100,000 coins, that amounts to less than 30,000 ounces.
Given that they are pricing at a 50 percent premium to the
international bullion price and about 30 percent premium to the
domestic price, they may have trouble reaching the lower end target
of 50,000 coins. I don't think that the average Indian has much
interest in gold other than for jewelry. Besides, they are fairly
sensitive to pricing.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 23:57
- STIMPY --- YOU EEEEEDOIT!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 23:54
- Donald @ RJ: Are you going to tell the gun owners that they can only keep their guns if they join a well regulated militia?
Donald, once again I wonder if you actually have a copy of the Constitution. Permit me to quote:
A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.
I read, a well regulated Militia, as being a reason that that the right to bear arms is inviolate. How you get membership in a militia being a requirement for gun ownership is beyond me. They are just words, and very plain words at that.
As for your wanting to live by the spirit of the words, that is a very frightening prospect. You can never know what was in the hearts of those who framed this great document, at best, you can understand the debate behind the framing. If you have not read the Federalist Papers explaining the new Constitution as written by James Madison, Alexander Hamilton, and John Jay. I suggest you start there.
No, I will not live, nor will abide under your perception of the spirit of the words that is a dangerous road which leads to suffering, spoil, and villainy. I am content to let 9 men good and true, over the years, first drag us to the left, and then to the right, but rarely straying so far as to be beyond repair. A very flawed method, but one that offers the greatest protection against tyranny that this world has ever seen. All precedent opposes your reading as , alas, do I.
I view the idea that we should somehow deduce some spirit of intent as a dangerous prospect. This is the very argument that has created the right to an abortion out of thin air. This is the same thinking that seems it will soon afford all the right not to be offended, in their gender, race, or sexuality. People are having their lives and careers ruined, because they have said something to offend another. I would like for any Constitutional scholar to show me where we have the right of protection against offending words. My reading of this wise and tested document shows that speech is protected, and this freedom against offense has been created by mongers of political correctness to exercise even greater control over free Americans. Additionally, This same idea that one can know intent has been held forth for all human history, in justification for countless atrocities, as the Will of God.
I do not mean to offend you, and I offer this sincerely. I also am not associating you with the extremes I have mentioned here. I am railing against an idea. It might be an idea you hold, to what extent, only you know, but I do not proceed to then assume you are, or do, evil. In my youth, I held many ideas that I now consider dangerous.
If I have left any doubt, please accept, from what I have read in your posts, I have found you to be well reasoned and intelligent. I just get kind of wound up at certain things. This has been one of them.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 23:42
- RJ, Is the pressure cooker cooking?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 23:41
Savage que pasa?>(que pasa?):
- Where's the Cherokee?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 23:38
Robert Sugar exchange>(Sugar exchange):
- Glenn, how much are seats on the Sugar exchange going for? How about the comex?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 23:37
STIMPY @DON'T BE DISS'N RIN>(@DON'T BE DISS'N RIN):
- RJ, HOW COULD YOU HURT RIN'S FEELINGS LIKE THAT? NOT ALL CHIHUAHUAS ARE LEGHOUNDS. AND JOHNNY'S NOT REALLY A CAT. HE MAKES YOU HUMANS LOOK BAD.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 23:37
STIMPY @DON'T BE DISS'N RIN>(@DON'T BE DISS'N RIN):
- RJ, HOW COULD YOU HURT RIN'S FEELINGS LIKE THAT? NOT ALL CHIHUAHUAS ARE LEGHOUNDS. AND JOHNNY'S NOT REALLY A CAT. HE MAKES YOU HUMANS LOOK BAD.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 23:35
- DA: Prechtor, the bear, has been bearish on the stock market since Dow 1700. Prechtor is also negative on gold. As long as that guy is bearish
on stocks I'll stay long. As far as gold is concerned, I like having Prechtor on the other side of my trades.
It is my general thinking that bears are the people that always order vanilla ice cream because it's thought to be more sophisticated than chocolate
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 23:25
- RE: , RJ's bristling, I think he is starting to feel some pressure
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 23:18
- ( Oh God, here he goes again! ) I would like to point out that Comex eligible gold stocks have taken a dramatic drop the last two days. Yesterday, they fell about 68,000 ounces and today they fell another 5000 ounces to about 225,000 oz or so, against an open interest of 194,000 contracts. That means there is about 1.2 physical oz of gold pledged against each contract of 100 oz. Tomorrow is first notice day on August gold. That is the start of the 'put up or shut up rotine'. We could see a dramatic short covering rally if someone who is long August gold elects to take delivery. Yes, the other side of my arguement is that there is lots of gold around ( 600,000 oz on Comex and then the CB's ) BUT, the shorts don't own it!!!
Roughly 99 per cent of the shorts have sold gold they don't own, This is the lowest level in eligible gold stocks I have seen and believe it is the lowest level in twenty years. Rest well tonight, shorts!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 23:02
- I couldn’t help the guilty pleasure of checking out the catboy on the Web Resources Links. His impotent barking reminds me of one of those mean but lusty little Chihuahuas who can’t decide whether to bite your leg, or hump it.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 22:52
RJ To All>(To All):
- Pardon my harsh tone. I tend to bristle when someone misrepresents my statements. I also have little patience for arguments that lack foundation. I love a good debate and am quick to praise a well made point. When offered inanities, I usually just ignore them, but it was a quiet day in the markets, and I am feeling a bit testy.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 22:48
George Cole forecasts>(forecasts):
- DJ: My 8300 Dow projection may have been a bit too conservative. 8500 looks like a better bet. BB Fisher who I greatly respect, is looking for 8700-9200. But whatever the the exact top, WE ARE GOING TO GET THERE VERY SOON. And there will be very little time to get out when the jig is up.
Still think we now are making the big turn in gold. Unlike Goldman I do not envision $380 by the end of August. But $340 probably will be decisively taken out next month and $380 will be reached by October when the stock market should be down at least a thousand points from the peak.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 22:47
Oliver @ Is Alan Greenspan a fraud?>(@ Is Alan Greenspan a fraud?):
- Inflated Reputation?
By Robert J. Samuelson
Wednesday, July 30, 1997; Page A23
The Washington Post
P.S.: Put-call ratio: 0.39
The ratio of stock put options to call options traded last week on the Chicago Board Options Exchange. A low put-call ratio--under 0.40--can be construed as bearish because it indicates a high level of optimism, leaving a lot of room for disappointment.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 22:47
RJ Some Stuff>(Some Stuff):
- D.A. @ Hogwash 11:31
You surprise me. You shout Hogwash and then compare the currencies of the US, Australia, Canada, and South Africa, to the worthless ruble! Gold is only purchased by the exchange of something of value. The Ruble is universally scorned. You shout Hogwash and then present a soapy, dripping pig! I have come to expect more from you. You did disappoint this morn.
Bob @ 13:00 ( @....in RJ's perfect world his logic is absolutely perfect ) :
Congratulations Bob! You have joined a growing group who has invented a line of thought and then pinned it on me. If you can’t represent my statements accurately, leave my name out of it. Feel free to use anything I have ever written to support your 13:00. I was one of the first to point out that Australia’s announcement was a dirty trick timed to keep the US from responding for two full trading days, and that the announcement was simply an acknowledgment of sales already absorbed. Your trotting out of the old and moldy news demonstrates that you have not read my prior posts, or you are an avid reader of the WSJ. In any case catch up or be left behind, but do not ascribe to me your fanciful inventions. Thanks.
If you think gold will go up, mortgage your house and I’ll be happy to sell you all the gold you want. Hey, it cost so much to mine, it must be worth more than any human will pay you for it today. Forget that there are enormous hordes of gold in virtually every spot on earth. Put your money where your mouth is, but don’t look for sympathy when the bear that is obvious to all ( including Pepi ) knocks you silly and you find you have pissed away your future and your children’s birthright. Gold is going down. Look at a chart. Your ignorality is astonishing.
Donald @ 14:23
I understood you well in regards to gold as insurance. Its the first thing they teach all metals brokers at metals broker school. As for your preferring that your CB backs up your paper with gold, we all know that concept died in the distant past. Even the most conservative gold country in the world, Switzerland, has recently lowered the requirement that the franc is backed at least 40% by gold. This requirement was lowered two months ago to 25%. Any guess why? Who do you think will be selling gold soon? When the Swiss sell, look out below. Then, when the smoke clears, I will be very happy to join you in an orgy of gold buying. I love the stuff, I just think its priced to high now.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 22:41
There is nothing new under the sun. What is, will come to pass, and what has come to pass will be again!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 22:37
- All ( And especially you bear types ) :
Don't let the gold bug bite!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 22:27
I think that Notagoldbug just dissed ya. I wouldn't take that lying down.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 22:22
- To Glenn,
Finally, someone respected in this discussion group is getting the
picture... I believe we are in Elliot wave 3 ( down ) and the fifth will take us
to approx. 40 XAU.. Would post a chart but seems only netscape users
can do this?
Thank you for your comments!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 22:07
I must object. This here gold bug has no respect for the bear case. It's as you once said 'news follows price'. Whats even stranger is that the bears have become even more adamant AFTER we have had a strong reversal. This leads me to believe that many of our ursine friends were not there to pick the low hanging fruit of the last decline. Because they are now certainly there, the talk gets stronger. Only now the fruit is gone and there are bulls on warpath.
You are right about the collapse of the bubble. It will come from nowhere and without warning. The telltale signs of other financial misadventures will not light the way for those foolish enough to play in this game. The music will stop, and there will be no chairs. All fall down.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 22:07
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):
- Night All. Looking forward to tomorrow.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 22:03
Ron Jett firstname.lastname@example.org >(email@example.com ):
- There are some charts of the metals at this location.... please take a look.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 22:02
- In 1987 I was a member of the NY Futures Exchange. I did not trade on the floor actively but did visit for a few days in Dec 1987 when the stocks which everyone loves now and hated then retested the 1800 level after hitting 1670 in Oct. All traders in the KNOW were bearish there was no place for stks but to go lower or at least test life of contract lows. This was the sentiment yet none of the pervasive bearish thoughts came true and it was the greatest buying oppportunity of the century. The up moves were fitful yet continuous. Glenn sounds like one of my fellow NYFE traders at the 1987 lows before the bull. THEY WERE ALL TALKING ABOUT STKS LIKE THERE WAS NO POSSIBILITY OF A BULL!! HMMMM.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:58
- Good night ALL...Scaterie Island bekons first thing in the AM....
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:56
Oliver @ 53 % in 18 months...wheeeouf>(@ 53 % in 18 months...wheeeouf):
The Dow-30 Index is showing a gain of 26.8 percent so far this year against a 26 percent rise for all of last year.
Glenn, I want to thank you for your great Posts.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:46
Byron @ Additional Info:>(@ Additional Info:):
- To Techkies: As a supplemental to my question re: the XAU LINE chart. Today's close broke the close of very early July. And on Quote.com charts both the XAU and HUI moved above their 50 days moving average lines.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:37
- RJ: Are you going to tell the gun owners that they can only keep their guns if they join a well regulated militia?
When the constitution was written the US had just gone through a horrible paper hyperinflation. They intended gold and silver coins to be money. Period. Their notes on discussion during debate reflect that. How can you require the states to comply with section 10 unless you have gold and silver coin available to do that? Gold and silver coin was required by the Coinage act of 1792 and that is what was issued and used. Soviet Russia had a constitution with wonderful words too. The words don't mean anything unless we act in the letter AND the spirit of the law. They chose to wink at it and look what it got them. Someday, probably sooner than we think, the Supreme Court will re-visit this argument out of desperation.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:37
- There is only one way to tell when the bubble will burst ( financials ) and that is when no one ( even the best ) think it will. Golds strength is occuring because of accumulation by BIG money who know it IS going to happen soon. We are on a gold bug channel and everyone respects the bear opine. The stk mkt is so out of control in relation to the debt laden declining fundamentals it can only compare to the tulip bulbs or 29. GOLD STKS are weak ESPECIALLY those dependent on higher gold prices/ this along with PUBLIC mutual fund redmptions show that bearishness is actually more rampant than we have ever seen. THE BULL IS NEAR!!
I love RJ's bearishness/ most peoples cautiousness and that includes Glenn. A BULL MKT CLIMBS A WALL OF WORRY!! NUF SAID!!!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:36
Bob @... Day Traders dilema: Is it a Bear or a Bull, ?>(@... Day Traders dilema: Is it a Bear or a Bull, ?):
- Glenn: I understand your position but find it difficult to reconcile. You are both a Bear and Bull on gold depending on what the elves indicate what may be the best choice for a profitable day. Do you think that this very short-term view, Is the trend my friend today ? , dangerous to project ? I would think that even a local could get whipsawed in a well orchestrated sucker rally even in the worst of times.
Your XAU opinion is radical. Why do you think the index should decline 50% before you expect a bottom at these gold prices ? ( Did I miss something in the translation of your post ? )
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:33
- RJ ( 21:22 ) As usual...good post!...
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:26
Skylark Something to Think About>(Something to Think About):
- If the bonds, dollar and stock market will continue to be strong and negative for gold, why is the XAU continuing to gain strength relative to bullion and why is not bullion going down.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:25
- Glenn: I second what JIN said.....BRAVO!...
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:22
- I used to think you were another, gold will go up regardless of the facts cheerleader. I apologize. I took the advice of whoever recommended a review of the beginnings of this group in April, 1996. There you were, Glenn calling for gold to break $390 support. You even stated you intentions to short gold!!! Now, this evening, here you are acknowledging the probabilities of continued high equities and lower gold. I have always found your posts to be well considered and a wealth of accurate information. With those attributes, I was a bit befuddled that you called many times for a rally in gold, when the fundamentals, technicals, and psychological factors did not support your optimism.
You contention that This entire move up in stocks is irrational and this move down in gold is also. belies your studied opinion. Every body is making money on stocks. I will accept exuberance, I will not accept irrational. As for the move down in gold, I believe that not only is it rational, but has been coming for years. As I stated this morning,, the traditional role of gold is undergoing a fundamental reevaluation. No telling how it will shake out, but your advice that the trend is your friend is well received.
I look forward to your posts, as I find you to be a clear thinker and a man who, thinks the next thought. Thanks.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:21
Byron @ It Too Late:>(@ It Too Late:):
- Donald: It's too late I already spent the money.! Well, since I have not own a TV in more than 20 years, I guess its no go. Now back at the graphic Netscape computer at the library. My 1 hr has come up.
To All: I just took a look at the daily updated XAU charts including todays update. When I look at the DBC 180 days Enhanced Chart using a line chart rather than a bar chart, it shows that todays line chart broke through the resistence area I was looking at. My interpretation of the line chart is that it is based on the closing price and today's closing price broke beyond the closing price of my resistence area. You need to go back several weeks when the XAU approached 98 to see what I mean.
I don't do any analysis using the LINE charts. If anyone out there does do you consider this a buy signal as it appears that a downtrend from the high of May has been broken. Any commentary is appreicated ( espeically if you say Yes, the downtrend is broken. ) : )
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:20
- Tort: Welcome back! We were gettin worried about ya...EBN Gold down .65 and Silver down 2 cents...
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:09
Tortfeasor Gurgle, Gurgle>(Gurgle, Gurgle):
- Ted, I'm alive. Albuquerque was inundated by water today and I was off the internet most of the day because the lines were down. We are still getting flash flood warnings until the early pm tonight. I have my snorke on just in case. Hopefully I will be dried out enough to post a bit of humor in the morning. I hope that the increase in water will be as short lived as the increase in the dow today. There's a lot of euphamism in the air about this new tax act, budget surpluses and other fictions from the fertile mind of washington. I'm out of here. I have to get my seminar read for in the morning.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:04
RJ US Constitution>(US Constitution):
Donald @ 18:53 Regarding: Ref. to Article 1, Sections 8 and 10. There is no
constitutional authority to print money, only gold and silver coin are legal tender.
Section 8 authorizes the federal government To coin Money, regulate the value thereof…. Used in this context, coin may mean, and has been determined to mean, to invent or devise - Oxford English Dictionary. That the authors of the constitution choose to capitalize the word Money puts the emphasis on Money and not coin. Money is described as The official currency, coins, and negotiable paper notes issued by a government.
Many trot out section 10 which reads in part that, No State shall……..coin Money……make any thing but gold and silver a Tender in Payment of Debts
This section deals with prohibition of State powers. The use of this section to invent a limitation of the Federal Government to invent or devise Money is not supported by the statements within.
Finally, What do you use to pay the mortgage? Fill up you car with gas? For that matter, purchase your car in the first place? When you cease all use of dollars and conduct all your affairs in gold or silver, I’ll listen to your arguments. Lacking that, please quote the US Constitution accurately. It is still the greatest political document ever written. Thanks.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:03
nomercy India-Gold Coins to mark 50th Anniversary>(India-Gold Coins to mark 50th Anniversary):
- Some more physical buying ahead
Gold coins to mark 50 years of freedom
July 29: At a time when hedging against inflation via investments in
gold is more of a myth, MMTC Ltd has decided to market gold
medallions, with India's 50 Years of Independence as its selling
point. Those fascinated by the glitter of gold will find the medallions
irresistible; those wanting real value for money may take a go at it,
too. And with the medallions due for release on August 15, MMTC
is on the job already.
Although the basic plans are more or less in place, minor details are
still being worked out. The crux of the matter is that the
government has allowed MMTC to market gold medallions, each
weighing 10 gms and incorporating the specially designed logo of
the 50th anniversary of India's Independence.The retail price for
the medallions has been fixed at Rs 5,800 per medallion in the
domestic market and at $ 165 abroad, says Preeti Chaturvedi,
general manager, public relations, MMTC Ltd. The medallions will
be issued with a certificate of purity and will come in tamper-proof
To be on sale only for a limited period, the target is to issue 50,000
to 1 lakh medallions, says Chaturvedi. Ultimately, public demand for
these `souvenirs' will determine the number, she adds. On the day
of inauguration, August 15, 10,000 medallions will be issued.
Thereafter, retail marketing will depend primarily on the bulk
bookings made in India and abroad. The scheme will be operational
till the end of October.
Within the country, the medallions will be available for purchase at
the Bank of India branches and also at the counters of MMTC's
regional offices. The medallions will be sold to foreigners and NRIs
through the MMTC foreign offices in Singapore, Tokyo, Dubai and
New York, explains Chaturvedi.
If interested in bulk bookings, you are required to pay Rs 1,000 in
India and $ 50 abroad as advance to MMTC. The payment can be
made in cash, cheque or demand draft.
Now that the buying modalities are quite clear, let's hear what
bullion experts have to say about the MMTC venture. Krishan
Goyal, general secretary, Delhi Bullion Merchants' Association,
says: ``It's not likely to be a large-scale success because the
medallions have been priced higher than the normal cost of 10
grams of gold.'' If they sell at all, adds Goyal, it's only because of
their emotional value. Secondly, stresses Goyal, if the medallions
are issued in large numbers ( as they are being ) , their antique value
may not appreciate much.
So, are the medallions only a short-term attraction or is there more
to them? As a mode of investment, other assets seem to be a better
choice, particularly because gold has hit a real low, floating in the
region of Rs 4,500.
Although gold appreciates approximately 25 times in 25 years, S R
Bharucha, senior economic advisor, Assocham, feels hedging
against inflation and investment in gold are more of a Western
orientation. In India, gold is synonymous with social security. ``A
very small percentage of Indians -- -around 10 per cent --treats
gold as an investment option. The remaining purchase gold as
jewellery,'' Bharucha adds.
Bharucha, however, says that India is graduating towards making
gold an alternative investment avenue. To reach that goal, many
reforms have to be implemented. For instance, a bullion exchange
needs to be set up to buy and sell gold to help standardise the
market practices. It may take anything from 5 to 15 years to
achieve these targets, but it will happen, says Bharucha.
In the context of meeting that goal, the retail marketing of gold
medallions by MMTC can be seen as a step towards gold being
viewed as an essential investment option.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:02
- NOMERCY: It is getting hard to count how many currency dominos have fallen so far. Let me know when we get up to the United Nations head count so I don't have to keep looking for these stories.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 21:00
nomercy India news>(India news):
- Upcoming ( Aug 2nd Gold Banking Seminar )
Movers and Shakers -- Mody preparing
for gold banking seminar
July 29: Khursheeda Mody, country manager, World Gold Council,
is busy hosting the Gold Banking Seminar, which begins on August
2. Says she, ``The recent changes in the Exim policy and the
recommendations of the capital account convertibility report have
made gold banking an issue of utmost importance.''
The seminar will attempt to take the recent policy changes a step
further by bringing together opinion leaders, policy makers,
regulators and end users to discuss the regulatory and operational
issues relating to gold banking.
Enforcement Directorate officer on special duty
A P Kala, special director, Directorate of Enforcement, has been
appointed Officer on Special Duty ( OSD ) in the same organisation.
Kala is a 1973 Indian Revenue Service ( IRS ) officer. He joined the
ED in 1992 as special director and has been associated with several
high-profile and sensitive cases in the Directorate. Kala has also
served as deputy director, Revenue Intelligence, in Mumbai and in
the Customs in Gujarat.
Plummer appointed MD of Imation SingaporeIMATION Corp.
has appointed Brian Plummer as managing director of Imation
Singapore Pte Ltd, South Asia Region. Plummer will direct and
manage all four of the company's business units: data storage
products, printing and publishing systems, medical imaging systems
and customer service technology.Plummer has moved to Singapore
from his current position in Australia, where he managed Imation's
data storage business unit for the Australia and New Zealand
region. Singapore is the regional headquarters for the South Asia
Plummer, a post-graduate in business, has been with 3M and
Imation for 16 years. He was national sales manager of 3M's
Office Markets Group, which included the data storage portfolio,
when it was spun off to form Imation in 1996.
Shaw to visit India
DAVID E Shaw, chairman and CEO, D E Shaw & Co Inc, the
New York-based global investment bank, is to visit India on August
4-8, 1997. Significantly, Shaw is also advisor on science and
technology to the US president.
During his visit, Shaw will be delivering a number of lectures to
premier technological institutions and computer scientists and meet
members of major industry associations such as NASSCOM and
IACC. Shaw will also inaugurate D E Shaw India Software Pvt.
Ltd's new software development facility in Hyderabad.
Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers ( Bombay ) Ltd.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:57
- BYRON: Here is the Hitachi story. Before they wire this to your account they wanted to know what kind of TV you have at home.
Hitachi shunning investment in bond trust
Hitachi Ltd. will soon reduce its investment of excess funds in bond
trusts to nearly zero, from some 50 billion yen at the end of February.
The decision stems from the failure of brokerages and affiliated
investment advisory firms to provide sufficient information about the
instruments, company officials said.
Hitachi conducted a survey last summer of European and U.S.
investment management firms to determine the level and kind of
information disclosed to customers. It then demanded its brokers and
investment advisers inform it of all bonds in portfolios managed on behalf
of Hitachi as well as the appraisal profit/loss status of individual issues.
When they failed to do so, Hitachi began moving the extra funds out of
bond trusts and into large-lot time deposits.
But the company is swimming against the current, as bonds appear to be
a better investment with anticipated yields of 1.7% at investment trusts
compared with 0.45% interest on large-lot one-year deposits.
Asked about Hitachi's abandonment of bond trusts, Nomura Securities
Investment Trust Management Co. said it plans to gradually provide
more information to investors but could not comment on cases involving
MOF to order business suspensions from
Aug. at Nomura, DKB
The Ministry of Finance is expected Wednesday to order Nomura
Securities Co. to suspend stock trading on its own accounts as well as
other operations and to direct Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank to suspend new
loan operations. The suspensions, to take effect in early August, are
administrative penalties for the involvement of the two firms in illegal
transactions with sokaiya corporate racketeers.
The suspensions, to be communicated directly to Nomura President
Junichi Ujiie and DKB President Katsuyuki Sugita, will likely run at least
four months. That is far longer than the previous record eight-week
suspension last year of Chiyoda Securities Co.
The penalization of DKB will be the first invocation of Article 27 of the
Banking Law. The bank's lending business will be shut down, but its
deposit operations will be allowed to continue to prevent disruption of
the business of DKB's retail customers. MOF officials are considering
suspending the bank from bond trading as well.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:54
- Washington Times has two articles relating to Clinton
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:50
JIN GOLD DOWN A BIT ...THANKS GLENN!>(GOLD DOWN A BIT ...THANKS GLENN!):
- MORNING ALL,
ABN shown gold down a bit http://www.abn.com.sg/feeds/commodities.html
THanks!GLENN,i printed out your both 3 comments,really worth to digest!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:48
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):
- Just took a look at the lastest copy of the Journal of Commerce newspaper here in the library. As of Friday, the Journa of Commerce Industrial Price Index numbers and chart are looking good. It is now back on the plus ( + ) side where it has only been a few times during the last year or so. The chart showing the movement during the last few weeks is pointed up quite strongly. .... Mr. Steve Kaplan, who does the daily gold update at his site, has a section in which he discusses the JOC Index with daily updates of the numbers. If this continues, another plus sign for gold and stuff in general.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:45
- Microsoft's outlook for next fiscal year, is sharpely lower growth. Current market valuations in both the Dow & Nasdaq have been ignoring this warning.
28 Jul 1997
Microsoft previews new
Company execs talk down fast-growth prospects for the coming
From Kenneth James in Seattle
HERE do you want to go today? Put the question, now
well-known as Microsoft Corp's premier marketing slogan,
to the software giant itself and the answer is surprising,
coming from one of the world's most profitable corporations. Today --
read this fiscal year which started July 1 -- Microsoft expects, almost
seems to want, to be where sharply slower growth is
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:37
- Germany: Turn-sign on road to Emu
TUESDAY JULY 29 1997
By Wolfgang Munchau
The road to monetary union appears much less smooth and predictable
now that the Bundesbank has signalled a possible change in German
monetary policy. Such a shift could lead to higher interest rates.
Very few market observers had expected it. Most rooted for May next
year or even 1999 as the start of new cycle of monetary tightening.
What happened last week was a subtle warning by the Bundesbank that it
may change the way it injects money into the economy. Its favoured
instruments are the fortnightly securities repurchase tenders, which it
currently offers at a fixed rate of 3 per cent.
The Bundesbank did not raise this rate last week, but said it would only
commit itself to two more fixed-rate tenders. After that, it might switch to
variable-rate instruments, meaning it will accept the highest bids for any
given amount of money. The practical consequence of this is that financial
markets will probably bid up short-term interest rates from the current 3
per cent level.
Some currency experts believe the central bank may be bluffing. But
almost everybody agrees that the warning was intended to stop the
relentless slide of the D-Mark against the dollar, as speculation against the
German currency is increasingly seen as a one-way bet.
According to Mr Hermann Rempsberger, chief economist at BHF Bank in
Frankfurt, the signals of German monetary policy changed last week. This
has created a shift in expectations. It is remarkable to see how open the
Bundesbank has been when it listed the factors that influence its decision,
starting from the domestic money supply to the external value of the
D-Mark against the dollar.
The view that German monetary policy may have changed last week is
shared by a series of currency strategists in London and New York. The
arguments in favour of a shift fall into three broad categories:
* The exchange rate. The Bundesbank perceives the D-Mark as
undervalued at current parities. But the real problem is not so much the
current level of the exchange rate as the possibility of a further slide.
* The domestic economy. The German economy has turned the corner
with a vengeance. It is already growing at a robust rate and may be
heading for 3 per cent next year, according to some forecasts. What
worries the Bundesbank is that inflation is heading above 2 per cent next
* The transfer of power from national central banks to the
European central bank. The argument for raising rates now is to relieve
the ECB from drastic action on rates during its first year of operation.
Higher rates would smooth the transfer.
For Emu, most analysts would agree, the shift in German monetary policy
carries more risks than opportunities.
Mr Rempsberger said higher interest rates were appropriate not only for
Germany but also for several other European Union countries ahead of
Germany in the business cycle. This is particularly so for Ireland, the
Netherlands, Spain and Portugal.
I believe [a policy shift] is appropriate for a series of countries, he said.
As far as France is concerned, I see a political problem, not an economic
Mr Avinash Persaud, head of currency research at J.P. Morgan in New
York, agrees. There are risks for Emu especially if the French authorities
react in a negative way, he says. A rise in interest rates so soon after a
long period of sluggish growth might be seen in France as a reflection of
inflation paranoia, rather than an appropriate policy response.
Mr Persaud strongly favours a shift in German monetary policy because it
is justified by the strong domestic economy. He points out further that the
Bundesbank's warning may inject doubts into the market's overwhelming
belief that the euro, the planned single European currency, will invariably
end up as a weak currency.
By the end of this summer, this argument will have run its course, he
believes. Without any counter-action by the Bundesbank, financial markets
might push the D-Mark to ever lower levels, and this could turn the notion
of a soft euro into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
However, the de facto devaluation of the D-Mark has been seen in the
markets partly as a consequence of persistent high EU unemployment.
Under Emu, a country will not be able to devalue its currency. The recently
agreed stability pact, which seeks to limit government deficits to 3 per cent
of gross domestic product, virtually rules out fiscal policy as a job-creating
mechanism. With relatively inflexible labour markets, there is little left but
the external exchange rate of the euro - or the D-Mark until 1999 - to act
as a shock-absorber.
If the Bundesbank were to drive up interest rates at this point, it might limit
the extent to which Germany and other countries in the Union can reduce
their persistently high rates of unemployment.
One senior strategist in a large US investment bank argues that a rise in
German interest rates could make financial markets even gloomier about
Germany that they are already. As a consequence, higher rates could
accelerate, rather than stop, the decline in the D-Mark.
There are risks involved with whatever action the Bundesbank takes at this
point. Without Emu, a shift in policy at this point in the cycle would have
been seen as overdue. But with Emu, the main question is how any policy
shift affects the fragile economic alliance between Germany and France.
This is impossible to predict.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:28
- Unless we see a large correction in the market on Friday, I expect to see the next lower level in the metals tested and a significant breakdown beginning this week end. Tis fools folly to go against the tide I asked the exorcist and she told me that - THIS MARKET IS CLEAN!!! Sure wish it weren't so Joe - but it tis!!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:26
- Re: Gold stocks -shakeout
FWIW - Bre-X and a the current price of gold has shaken the tree pretty good her in Canada, some stocks such as RYO are at a bargain basement price. The majors, are being favoured as flight to quality, discounting the shakeout, streamlining, mergers etc., which the gold industry faces. The market always looks ahead. The time to buy gold stock is now.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:25
- I do believe that the stock market is setting itself up for a huge over bought bubble but this bubble could last another 6-18 months.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:21
- Sorry about all the typos
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:17
- Part 3 -
I just want to cover gold stocks really quickly. I really believe ( Correct or not ) that the reason Gold stocks have not decline has noting to do with moning stocks Leading the advance like they did in 93. I believe that Mining stocks are not decline because many many traders are still bullish on gold and they bought the stocks with cash and do not have margin call forcing them to sell. This misplace optimism is more bearish than bullish. The bull market in Gold shall not begin until everyone has thrown in the towel and does not believe it will happen! I believe that the XAU is so over-valued compared to Gold that the best way to make money in the coming year is to buy XAU puts. The XAU should decline by atleast 50% before the bottom is in if not more. The XAU not declining means to me that alot of people are under water witht her position and are stating that they shall hold on until the rally comes and the rally shal make them Hole again. Well any rally we have in gold trades shall use to sell there gold stocks to cut there lossess.
I sure hope that I am wrong here and that the turning point in the financial markets starts tomorrow. Really. I am just not buying and gold stocks until I am 100% the low is in.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:16
EB D.A. on DM...we.are.there...maybe...>(D.A. on DM...we.are.there...maybe...):
- You must have seen the possible 'Island Reversal' 7/25. The 14 day ADX is pushing to wonderful '40'. Fibonacci...well, he is fit to be tied... ( I would too if I built a leaning tower ) . Stochastics...ready. OI/VOL...looks pretty good. Volatility is low...Let's see what else do we need...hmmmmmmmm... oh yeah...Fundamentals...those doggone Germans...what to do... anyway, I'm going in softly if we continue sideways for a few days without setting the low...with eyes WIDE.
AWAY...on your Mark, get set...
EB :-$$ )
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:15
- As always your comments are appreciated. One thought, came to mind as I read your scenario, of the present state of the economy, believing if we may that they represent current conditions. Aren't market and market valuations an eye to the future rather refecting today's status? Is anybody listening to Microsoft warnings of stock overvaluation. Which brings me to my point. Gold represents risk insurance, and as such the present prevailing bias and current trend in valuating both stocks and gold is going to extremes. Whilst I wouldn't disagree with you I believe the present scenario, fools investors and speculators to continue their path that often creates booms and busts.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:15
Byron @ Updating:>(@ Updating:):
- Donald: Y.Auger updates his charts on a weekly basis generally on Saturday. ( usually in the morning )
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:07
Byron @ No Problem:>(@ No Problem:):
- Donald: I couldn't access the story on my text only computer at the library, but could you please e-mail Hitachi and let them know that they can deposit the 50 billion yen into my checking account. I will take good care of it for them.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:07
- Recent price action of August gold has set up a bearish triangle, which is a frequent feature of wave 4. An interpretation of this pattern projects prices as low as 304. Other price projection techniques suggest a target closer to the 310 -312 area for the 5th wave ( and final wave ) down. FWIW
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:06
- Part 2 ---
I realize that many traders including Jerry Favors ( Who I respect greatly ) believe that stocks will peak for good any day now. I believed that not to long ago but I have changed my mond with this current Bond rally. The current bond rally changes everything. With the bond market ralling stocks have no place to go but up and Gold has no place to go but down. I realize that one may think that Bonds could peak any day now also but I also believe that bonds shall peak a few weeks before the final peak in stocks so if bonds are hitting new highes today then stocks still have some more to go. It is looking more and more like a small deflationary time period is developing and that there shall not be meaningful correction in stocks nor meaningful rallies in gold until the final turn. This opinion could change at any time but I can not se it changing to soon. As a trader you MUST go with the current trend or get crushed. This is the current trend. No one in this group is more bullish on Gold then me. Trust me when I say that! I look at all the markets every day constantly and ask if this is the turning point and what it would take to turn these markets and what the turing point will look like. I sure hope that I will be able to spot the exact bottom in Gold, because I'll be so rich so quickly. I simply do not see it now. I am not sure what will happen next but I did buy some Sept 325 puts today. I was the only trade in them all day. I bought them for 160 and they settled at 200. If you want to buy some lottery tickets these are them. Don't do it because you think it is rational, do it because you want to make money. This entire move up in stocks is irational and this move down in gold is also.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:05
nomercy currency devalations-collateral effect>(currency devalations-collateral effect):
- Worry hits firms with
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 20:04
vronsky US/JAPAN TRADE - REALITY VERSUS PERCEPTION>(US/JAPAN TRADE - REALITY VERSUS PERCEPTION):
- Japan’s divesture of $US assets will lead to collapse in US bond market, devaluation of US dollar & increase in gold price. Insightful and prophetic. Guest Guru Milhouse:
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 19:58
nomercy Philippines new currency rules>(Philippines new currency rules):
- To comply, banks would have to dump dollars for
pesos, strengthening demand for the domestic
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 19:58
- Hitachi worried about safety of 50 billion yen in surplus cash.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 19:54
DJ Another star is born (maybe).>(Another star is born (maybe).):
- George Cole - As I recall, you predicted Dow 8300 in August and that August would see the peak in the general stock market, and the beginning of the bull market in gold. Es verdad? It sure looks like you have a very real chance of joining the ranks of the elite few who can claim to have accurately predicted a significant market reversal, both time and level. Let us see. For sure the gold stocks are showing great strength - hope this is a leading indicator, as you have long claimed.
John Disney - Thanks for your update on RSA quarterly results. The Randgold results explain the weakness shown during Q2 in Durban Deep and the other stocks involved in the merger. They got hit much more than I expected ( more than you too expected, I'll wager ) . However, it was very encouraging to note that the prices actually increased, on balance, following the release of the poor quarterly results. Obviously the market has already factored in these results. Barring a break down of gold below $300, IMHO these stocks have seen ( and are still quite near ) their lows. One of the greatest bargains of all time.
All - SWC took a 3% hit today on the news that their hedges would not allow SWC to take advantage of current market prices, along with a 3% Q2 loss. Let's see. In Q2 SWC average selling price was $232/oz. This translates to roughly $380/oz for platinum and $190/oz. for palladium ( ratio of 1:3.5 ) . If they are forced to sell at the hedge prices of $382 and $134 respectively, the average price would be $189/oz or AN 18% DROP IN REVENUE PER OUNCE. The new news today was that they had added significant hedges for 1998 at the same prices. Roughly 2/3 of their 1998 palladium and 1/10 of their 1998 platinum are hedged. Seems their hedging policy has managed to turn a silk purse into a sow's ear. Can someone explain why backwardation prohibits SWC from rolling its spot-deferred positions and taking the higher market prices?
John Disney - Do you know if Rustenburg and Impala are hedged, and if so, how much?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 19:54
nomercy Devaluations necessary to stay competitive>(Devaluations necessary to stay competitive):
- Currency slide takes toll
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 19:53
- So there has been alot of questions on why I'm more bearish, about the XAU going up and about the Market in general. I'm very busy right now but I will try and make some comments here. Being over sold or support are meaningless in bear markets just like being overbought and resistence are meaningless in bull markets. Traders said that there was Good support at 325.00. Well we went from $333.00 to 324.00 in one day and then that same day rallied to $325.00. So the Great support we had at 325.00 was able to stop a several dollar decline on July 3rd on a closing basis. Of course we opened up $6 lower that Monday and went down some more. So in the end $325.00 was not so great after all. The point I am tring to make here is that there are very good reasons for stocks and bonds to go up and Gold to go down and support and resistence numbers will only give a temporary pause to the markets. I am not sure if or how badly the government is lying to us about the CPI and PPI but I go over them very carefully every month and there is currently little to no inflation. The budject is getting ballanced and Clinton is looking fair. The economy is growing but no too fast. Overall everything is great. I am not sure how long this will last and I do not believe it will last for years, but right now this is what it is. With this economic enviroment bonds are hitting highes on a daily basis. Stocks are going straight up and Gold has nowhere to go but down.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 19:50
nomercy Baht crisis>(Baht crisis):
- IMF solution is long-term...thus we have more short term effects of the devalution
While the entry of the IMF indicates a long-term
solution to Thailand's problems may be in the works,
the next few months may see a tightening of the
credit crunch which has squeezed Thai companies.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 19:43
- Research Institute predicts Korean slump.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 19:41
- Terrorist bombing Israel, 15 dead, 170 wounded
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 19:36
- BYRON: The weekly XAU/Gold Ratio chart. What day and time does it get updated?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 19:21
- AUROPHILE: How do you read the new high in the Dow/Gold Ratio from an Elliott Wave point of view? Is it technically considered a new high when it is such a tiny amount? It may be a moot point by tomorrow anyway the way the Dow is going.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 19:04
GEORGE S.COLE HAPPY>(HAPPY):
- Ted: Today's action makes me very happy indeed. Gold stocks doing quiite nicely while the metal inches up just a tad. Starting to remind me of early 1993. One big differnce though -- bullion and gold stocks MUCH cheaper now relative to stocks overall.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 19:00
- I guess everyone's bailing out of Pegasus Gold ( PGU ) before they report their earnings tomorrow.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 18:56
- FYI: Yes. I have it at 25.32 which exceeds the intraday high of July 7th by .02 and the July 11th closing by .10. Still un the upside of the spike I guess.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 18:56
- Novice ( 16:47 ) T'was a good day fer drip's....Maritimer!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 18:55
Byron @ Interesting:>(@ Interesting:):
- Just read the Jerry Favors Analysis. He discusses the Lindsay Standard Time Spans ( interesting ) and the Extended Basic Advance. Good reading.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 18:53
- WALT: Pull out a copy of the U.S. Constitution. Ref. to Article 1, Sections 8 and 10. There is no constitutional authority to print money, only gold and silver coin are legal tender. It is the government who has abrogated the contract. Those sections have not been repealed.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 18:52
- fyi: according to bb fisher's chart and my calculator, the dow/gold ratio was higher ( 28.61 ) in 1966.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 18:39
- Tomorrows numbers;
( 8:30 a.m. )
Jobless Claims - week ending 07/26
GDP - Q2 ( advance )
APICS Survey - July
( 10 a.m. )
Chicago Purch. Index - July
Help-Wanted Index - June
Housing Affordability - Q2
( 3 p.m. )
Farm Prices - July
( 4:30 p.m. )
Money Supply ( M2 ) - week ending 07/21
( 8:30 a.m. )
Real GDP at Factor Cost - May
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 18:37
read it @marketweb>(@marketweb):
- Jerry Favors: http://www.marketweb.com/commentary/JF0730.HTM
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 18:29
- new all time high for dow/gold ratio
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 17:24
GFD Dividends? What Dividends>(Dividends? What Dividends):
- D.A.'s 13:24 post got me thinking. Stock buy backs are considered a form of dividends these days. Your question about adjusting the S&P for this type of activity raised another one for me. In ancient times a dividend was actually considered sacroscant and companies would do anything to avoid lowering them. Savvy analysts used ratios of dividend to things like profits to see just how solid those dividends were. How quaint! :- ) I think this is still done to rate preferred shares, etc.
I wonder how solid dividends+buybacks would look in this perspective. Are there S&P companies out there essentially borrowing money to prop up their dividends for instance? And, as D.A. points out, what would a properly adjusted PE ratio actually look like? ( something I have always been curious about... )
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 17:20
Byron @ The Charts:>(@ The Charts:):
- Eyeballing the XAU and HUI charts, it looks as thought both peaked their nose over the 50 moving average line but have not yet broken through resistence. Resistence being 98 for the XAU and about 147.50 for HUI. Game is not over. To be continued tomorrow.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 17:13
Byron @ Nock, Nock. Who's There:>(@ Nock, Nock. Who's There:):
- 6pak: That's Nock. First was introduced to him in the mid 70's. That the 1970's. His best work is in The Memoirs ( ? ) Of A Superfluous Man. Always surprised that he still shows up and now on the internet. He was a very private person. One of my favorite stories is how, at one time, his friends could only get in contract with him was by leaving a note under a particular rock in Central Park, NY. This of course was back in the early part of the century. ( before e-mail ) . : )
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 17:00
Byron @ Follow The Crowd:>(@ Follow The Crowd:):
- Ali: Not married to ECO but since the public seems to love it ( see the volumn leaders on Amex ) , I like to play it for the short term especially at the beginning of a move up. Like Sunshine Mining ( which I don't own ) , when the gold mining sector moves just about everybody does but some more than others. Last time I checked looked like Pegasus ( PDG ) was getting hit again. At one point was down 6%. New out about some selling by a large holder of the stock. Boy, has PGU taken a hit during this bear. But IF a fire is lit under the gold shares some people would like to make a speculation play on it and ECO and SSC. Just my opinion. Nothing carved in stone.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 16:57
6pak Byron @ Library>(Byron @ Library):
- Thanks Byron, for the introduction to Albert Jay Nock.
Found material on the net, regarding Nock, and found it favourable.
*Our Enemy, The State*, by Albert Jay Nock. Introduction by Walter E.
Grinder ( reviewed by Roy A. Childs, jr. May 1989 )
Nock is not an anarchist. He makes a distinction between the State and
Government. Government is an agency with strictly limited powers, devoted
to protecting individual rights to life, liberty and property. The State,
on the other hand is an offshoot of government that develops when some
people capture the machinery of government and *pervert* it, using its
powers not to protect rights, but to violate them, to exploit people by
confiscating their wealth, regulating their activities, and subjugating
them whenever necessary to enhance its own illicit power.
Thus it is that Government, a social institution necessary for the
peaceful cooperation of people in society, becomes *twisted* into the
State, an inherently anti-social institution that benefits some at the
expense of others.
Thanks again, Take care eh!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 16:47
Novice @Cocktails R Us>(@Cocktails R Us):
- FWIW: Not only did the XAU and HUI finish relatively well, considering the gold price. Several juniors ( admittedly volatile little suckers ) had some nice moves today...Orvana up 9.6 % after being DOWN most of the day...Bema ( US ) , Geomaque, and Miramar all up 2-3%. Someone must see something at the end of this black tunnel ( hope it's not the proverbial locomotive ) . Good day for DRIPs, Maritimer?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 16:44
- Byron;if I would buy a major gold producer it definitely wouldn't be Echo
Bay.Had a few bad experiences with them and got the feeling they don't know what they are doing most of the time.Why they would be suddenly in demand makes me wonder if there are more fools out there than I was believing.Sure would like to know how to put an honest evaluation on those major gold co.The small expl.co you can size up the management personally, but to the 'Biggies' the average investor has never a change to meet anyone above the girl at the front desk und you have to rely on the garbage the I R departments dish out.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 16:33
- Hi Front! Ain't life a bitch....
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 16:24
Byron @ The Close:>(@ The Close:):
- Panda: There was some news today on ECO. See Yahoo. Wasn't me buying at the close. I had to sell some Monday ( eco ) because of that change in margin requirments by Scwabee.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 16:17
- Hi Ali: I made my judgement on the health care system in Glace Bay by observing what happens in a town 12 miles away...Maybe if the overwhelming majority of the people there were NOT extremly obese and smoked cigarette's,they would have less to WHINE about...Another example of expecting the goverment to do ALL....
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 16:15
Byron @ Last Call:>(@ Last Call:):
- Panda: looks like a tease. Nothing very definite yet. Tomorrow is an important day at the XAU and HUI OK Correls. Believe it ( tomorrow is lst Delivery Day for August Gold also ) . Stay Tuned.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 16:12
- Strange things happen near the close. Take, for example, ECO ( Echo Bay Mines ) . The bid/ask size was 999X999 for a long time, then, in a blink of an eye, it became 100X500. Hmmmmm, where did all those buyers come from?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 16:11
- George Cole: NOW are you happy? XAU up 1.75 and gold @ unch....XAU really surged at the end!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 16:11
- Ted and 6pack;There is just as much bull around in the medical field as in the gold field.You can't believe what you hear or see and you have to make your own judgement everywhere you look.See gold is not going anywhere fast and I was hoping it would fall to 250$ to get a bargain!Who said it would fall?Have a good day all.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 16:04
- At the close HUI 145.15 UP 2.03 XAU 97.68 UP 1.75
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 16:03
Curious to all>(to all):
- Sorry, make that four parts.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 16:01
Curious to all>(to all):
- My Goodness ! Hepcat Lives ! ( maybe he knows Elvis ) . Just tune to Bart's Web Resource Link to hear the latest from the Cat, in three parts !
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 16:01
Byron @ Teasing Us:>(@ Teasing Us:):
- Ted, Skylark, Panda: They are teasing us at the 50 M.A. line. Would prefer to see a strong move over. Will not know until later if we crossed. HUI's line looks about 145 and XAU 98.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 16:00
Ted my lad, since when is pushing a kayak across 8 miles of open ocean called the easy life ? Now if you had a SEADOO, I'd belive you !
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 15:58
panda @the close>(@the close):
- Buy imbalances showing up in the large caps. Panic buying anyone?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 15:56
6pak Ted @ 14:56>(Ted @ 14:56):
- Only in Canada, you say, what a pity !
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 15:32
nailz JUST LURKING.....>(JUST LURKING.....):
- My oh my what a difference a few days makes....
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 15:24
- Byron -- FWIW NGC is trading at 41 3/4 at the moment NEM is at 40 3/4 ask.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 15:20
Skylark Standing in the Mud>(Standing in the Mud):
- BYRON: One would hope so, but the problem is most if not all of the other stocks act as if they are standing in quick sand. Appears that NEM and ABX are the only stocks of choice.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 15:04
- Hi Byron ( 14:08 ) No gators!...XAU up 1.0....Dow up 86...
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 15:03
- Hi Byron ( 14:08 ) No gators!...XAU up 1.0....Dow up 86...
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 14:58
Byron @ Closing In On That Line:>(@ Closing In On That Line:):
- Skylark: If Newmont closes above resistence, can XAU be far behind.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 14:56
- 6PAK ( 14:43 ) Said tongue in cheek my friend!...and NO ONE is dying as a result of the health care system in Glace Bay...Glace Bay is a very ODD place and exaggeration ( bull shi$ting ) is the norm there...It ain't just me who is enjoying the easy life in Cape Breton...courtesy of the rest of Canada!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 14:44
- To Donald: Your reply to huh seems a bit odd to me.
Did you have a written contract with your central banker to exchange
your paper money for gold
Why should they exchange your money for gold? Why should anyone
exchange anything for anything else? Unless there is an previously agreed enforceable contract.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 14:43
6pak 50 Deaths @ Cape Breton, Nova Scotia>(50 Deaths @ Cape Breton, Nova Scotia):
- Ted @ 13:53 Can life get any better
Yes, it can Ted, but stay away from the Health Care System, stay healthy,
them medical folks, is killing off surplus humans.
July 30 1997 * MDs' claims unproven - experts unable to confirm health
cuts causes death *
By: Mary Ellen MacIntyre / Cape Breton Bureau
Glace Bay.....Charges by local doctors that health-care cuts have caused
as many as 50 deaths here over past two years.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 14:39
Skylark Something to Think About>(Something to Think About):
- NEM is at its highest level since March and above recent resistance.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 14:23
- RJ: Huh? Mabye my message was not clear. I meant to respond to Electron that there are lots of things that cost us money and are worthwhile to own even though they earn us nothing. Fire insurance on your house is an example. Gold is fiscal insurance against hard times, both inflationary and deflationary hard times. Gold is buying power insurance. I would prefer that my Central Bank hold enough gold to redeem my paper dollars if I make that choice. If my Central Bank refuses to do that then I feel the need to become my own Central Bank just in case.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 14:19
Byron @The PL>(@The PL):
- about 10 minutes to the close on COMEX. Glenn: Tell us what's about to happen.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 14:14
vronsky DAILY BUSINESS & FINANCIAL NEWS FROM 6 CONTINENTS - 83 GLOBAL SOURCES>(DAILY BUSINESS & FINANCIAL NEWS FROM 6 CONTINENTS - 83 GLOBAL SOURCES):
- All the News Fit to Print - and then some. If it isn’t reported in our Daily News section, it “AIN’T” happened yet! From the USA & CANADA ( 27 ) , Europe ( 13 ) , South Africa ( 3 ) , Asia ( 16 ) , Australia ( 7 ) & South America ( 17 ) :
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 14:09
Byron @ Waiting:>(@ Waiting:):
- Ted: by any chance, did you see any alligators? : )
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 14:00
- Comex report: Gold @ unch; Silver up 4.5 cents; Platinum up 2.4 dollars and Palladium up 4.1 dollars...Saw a dolphin 100 feet from the kayak...cool! What happened to our Gold rally today
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 13:54
ark firstname.lastname@example.org >(email@example.com ):
- I see in a Barrons article by some Phd that inflation is deflation and
interest rates should go down since rates don't need an inflation kicker.
So bonds should soar and stocks tank. So what else is new? Anyway, I
don't understand this stuff and no doubt thats why I'm not weathly but
I just read that a 1937 loaf of bread ( l pound ) was 9 cents now it is easyily over a buck. In 1947 a milk shake ( real ice cream ) was 15 cents.
$2.50 now. Do economists ever go shopping? What world do they live in?
I guess they don't use empirical reason? And the blips on the radar
screen weren't Jap Zeros on 12/7/41 either. Gracious me.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 13:53
- Mooney ( 10:41 ) Somebody has got to the dirty work....eh....What a beautiful day and all is well with the world...The Dow up 66...Long bond yield all the way down to 6.32...Bank stox soarin...again! and even the XAU is up .71....can life get any better ....diversification works!
Tort: I repeat...Did you drown in the floods
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 13:50
Byron @ Below The Line:>(@ Below The Line:):
- XAU lurking, like an alligator, just below the 50 Moving Average line. Waiting to chomp down on that resistence area between 97-98. Alligator getting very hungry.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 13:24
For an interesting read head over to http://www.microsoft.com and take a look at their financials for fiscal 1997. Their after tax income was around $3.4B. They also spent about $3.1B to purchase their own stock to offset the shares issued through their ESOP. Not to be too cynical, but one way of looking at this is that the company really only made $300M last year because the money distributed to employees in the form of stock options could be thought of as an operating expense. From this perpsective the stock is selling at a trailing PE of around 650.
While their present accounting methods are fine under FASB one has to wonder. Carrying their compensation scheme to its logical conclusion, why don't they just pay all of their salaries as bonus through stock options. Then their operating earnings can really be stellar and a double from here would be in order, real quick.
Has anyone seen an estimate of the PE of the SP500 adjusted for this little gizmo?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 13:21
Bob @...when all else fails>(@...when all else fails):
- Think about fundamentals. Demand and supply for gold are a function of price. As price declines demand increases and supply gets constrained as the price closes high cost mine production. The lower the price still the more production is deferred. Simple and elegant and it always works. The only thing that could possibly distort this formula is if the five major CB's ( US, France, Italy, Germany, Switzerland ) decided to organize a fire sale over the next few years. The result would be a closure of significant mine capacities in RSA, US/Americas, Oz,and other 3rd world. ( BTW, recycled metal is not a factor until price rockets north. ) Mine and related jobs would be lost and the multiplier effect would kill off the food chain.
So, like I said many times before, stick to the fundamentals of the yellow metal.
It's mainly about demand, supply, and price. In the longterm price will need to reflect the cost of finding, mining, and refining. many claim to have found economic gold but the fact renmains that the metal is the extremely scarce. Do you ever hear anyone say 'precious' stocks ?
The speculative 'gold as global money' story only adds icing to the cake. Just don't forget the main meal is not the high-energy-caloric icing but the blander more wholesome cake.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 13:10
- fjdk....: Get it done man. Time is of the essence. When the train leaves there will be few passengers. All aboard.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 13:05
Bad news for the metal stocks = good news for gold. Here we have another couple of mine startups that are going to be put on the shelf. The decline in supply which is undoubtedly on the way is going to be sneaky. Its not so much that we will se massive mine closures ( although certainly there will be some ) but there will be a whole host of new projects cancelled. The normal mine closures due to exhaustion of ore will continue as usual but the natural replacement cycle will be highly perturbed.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 13:00
Bob @....in RJ's perfect world his logic is absolutely perfect>(@....in RJ's perfect world his logic is absolutely perfect):
- RJ: You don't really believe that the markets are perfect and any price is the result of normal demand/supply decisions do you ? Ever hear of insider trading ? How about the insider trading you don't hear about ?
A classic case to describe the imperfection of the gold market price mechanism was the recent RBA announcement. The Wizards of OZ had sold about $2 B of gold in the first half of 1997.
Clearly, the market had absorbed the gold and price held in the $340-$350 range. The decline of about $27 ( to $313 low ) from the low range was attributed to the announcement not to the fundamentals.
In this case fear and clever frontrunning by professional traders - perhaps someone like you - determined where the market price would land - not the fundamental market dynamics of demand and supply for physical gold.
I respect your skill and market timing sense but you don't have to speak the 'party line' about market price perfection on this thread. We are all big boys and girls and know about the market birds and bees.
My take: the Golden Bear of 1996-97 is a production directed by well-financed shorts who feed-off the newsmaker machinery. The stk market can not be shorted in these days so the current game ( short target ) is the gold market. To be fair, the shorts have a helping hand from the broker-analyst-spin-doctors who know that 'early retirement planning' type BULLs come once in a career ( twice if you been around since 1982-87 ) so you eat what you kill and get out of the way before the retail killing fields begin to smell like dead IRAs.
Keep up the good posts but keep your skirt down otherwise you will attract flies.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 12:56
King of the Namib and the emirates. In my Land Rover>(In my Land Rover):
- Prince: , My secretary of the moneys tells me your plan no good, you must use leftover Dollars to buy Japan, they love Dollars and have all of the Platinum as the truck has finally arrived.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 12:50
Ron Jett firstname.lastname@example.org>(email@example.com):
more bad news for metal stocks
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 12:34
Prince of Tieradelfuegoistan. @home in my castalice>(@home in my castalice):
- I have ordered my secretery of the treasury to print one quadrillion bhatpesoafrancarands ( virtually worthless ) with which I will buy one trillion $ in T bonds. With the first uptick in treasury interest rates t Bonds now selling at 212 and yielding .00001% I will sell all the $ denominated T Bonds and buy three and 1/4 trillion ounces of gold ( gold now selling at 34 cents the ounce ) and with the remainder of the now virtually worthless Dollars I will bury the US,ali my late friend Nikita.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 12:31
Bob A SWC>(SWC):
- SWC down about 3% on very low vol.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 12:27
George ole global ponzi scheme>(global ponzi scheme):
- Perplexed: At some point soon ( probably in August ) this global ponzi scheme will start to unravel.The scenario will involve some combination of falling global stock prices, rising interest rates. a swooning dollar and SOARING GOLD. Gold's refusal to tank despite recent strength in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, is a sign the game will not last much longer.
Bullion has sold off, but the gold stocks have not. The gold stocks should begin a much stronger bull phase shortly, but low XAU volume is signalling we will have to wait a little longer for the takeoff. August should be the month.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 12:05
- DA!!! For crying out loud; please keep you comments to yourself, some of us are still buying. If you get the bears to step back and extract them selves from the gold hype, they might stop selling!!!! Then what will I do
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 11:57
Skylake SWC Caught with its Hedges Down>(SWC Caught with its Hedges Down):
NEW YORK, July 30 ( Reuter ) - Stillwater Mining Co of Denver, Colorado, the only U.S. producer of platinum group metals ( PGMs ) , said Wednesday the sharp rise in PGM prices this year has meant the company cannot roll its spot-deferred forward sales contracts this year to take advantage of higher spot market prices.
As a result Stillwater will be delivering against its current spot-deferred positions for palladium. Delivery into the current contracts will diminish the percentage of future production that is hedged, chairman Ray Ballmer said in a statement.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 11:50
Ron Hey, Tort, where are 'ya?>(Hey, Tort, where are 'ya?):
- NASA Public Press Release
Tuesday, April 31, 1990 Audio: 202/555-1788
[Ed: By Tom Neff]
This is NASA Headline News for Tuesday, April 31.....
The Congressional Budget Explorer Module ( CBEM ) is scheduled for installation in the orbiter Titanic's payload bay this afternoon. Technicians resolved an earlier problem with hydraulic line pressure when it was discovered that several fragments of lobbyist had become stuck in a flapper valve. The 127-ton CBEM payload will mark the beginning of NASA's ambitious decade-long Mission to Fort Knox.
A Flight Eagerness Review is scheduled for tomorrow and Thursday. The current target launch date is Friday, May 11. If no further problems are uncovered in the FER, the launch will probably be pushed back a few days anyway just for the heck of it. The CBEM launch window ends on Tuesday, May 21, when Venus rises in Aquarius and Neptune's influence is no longer balanced, violating critical Astral launch criteria.
Meanwhile, the Velikovsky spacecraft is in good health on its journey to Venus. It's now 122 million miles from Venus and about 28 feet from Earth. Engineers at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory report that failure to actually launch Velikovsky has had little impact on its ability to perform the primary pseudoscience missions. Earlier problems with voltage fluctuations in the Wide Eyed/Credulous Subject Scanner are being monitored carefully. I'm pretending this is really exciting, says JPL team leader Geraldo R. Spencer.
In other planetary mission news, technicians at the Deep Space Network installation in Canberra, Australia have identified the probable cause of signal weakness in the primary 90-meter antenna: the dish was apparently mounted upside-down. A tentative schedule and budget estimate for correcting the mount is underway. DSN Australian Coordinator Michael J. Dundee was quoted in the Australian weekly P*** Off Mate as saying that this mystifying problem had never been encountered before, but was probably due to reliance on American antenna design parameters. I'm still not convinced that anything's wrong, but we'll try it the other way and see.
Leak checks are underway on the Contractor Information Network ( CIN ) at Huntsville, Alabama. Technicians at the Huntsville Program Survival Facility ( PSF ) expect to begin CIN closeouts by Thursday. The system will then be purged for use.
Aerobuck Weekly reports that in testimony last Thursday before the House Space and Storm Door Subcommittee, NASA Administrator Roald Sagdeev testified that a recent re-re-reshuffling and options devaluation would enable Space Station to proceed despite the latest round of budget cuts, but warned this was absolutely the last cut that can be sustained. Citing internal NASA studies, the publication listed several cost cutting measures under consideration, including a two year stretchout of the Ground Telerobotic Administrator ( GTA ) subsystem, and eliminating atmospheric pressure in the one remaining crew module, which would also be downsized from 23 feet to 16 feet. The name of the station would be officially changed from Freedom to Fred to fit the new bulkhead dimensions.
The Soviets and Japanese jointly announced a contract with Hilton Hotels last week, to provide a 335-room passenger module for the international Sakharov Space Station currently under construction in Earth orbit.
Malawi became the 78th nation in space Sunday, launching an 1820-pound satellite into orbit atop an Indonesian Merlata II booster. This launcher now has a record of 69 successes in 71 launches.
The last remaining Scout rocket was lost in a launch pad accident near Wallops Island Proving Ground last week, according to a NASA spokesman. Technicians apparently made an error in connecting a hydraulic feed line to the rocket as it awaited payload checkout, connecting it to the purge valve for a nearby Toxic Waste Holding Facility instead. The first stage appears to have partially dissolved and melted itself to the concrete apron; EPA officials have ordered the site sealed pending checkout by an Emergency Response team.
Here's the broadcast schedule for Public Affairs events on NASA Deflect TV. All times are Eastern.
Tuesday, April 31...
11:30 A.M. Budget Cut Spinoffs - classroom teaching aid
Monday, May 0...
9:00 A.M. Colloquium on Soviet Inferiority
10:00 A.M. Three Letter Acronym ( TLA ) List Update ( LU )
11:00 A.M. Pre-launch News Conference
12:00 A.M. Post-scrub News Conference
Friday, April 35...
4:00 A.M. Replay of the Administrator's Good Friday speech: The Crucifixion: A Lesson for NASA?
5:30 A.M. Livestock Report
6:00 A.M. Astronaut Aerobics/Morning Workout
All events and times and missions and appropriations are subject to change without notice.
These reports are filed daily, Monday through Friday, at 12 noon, EDT. My god, CNN, when do you want me to file? Last April?
A service of the Infernal Communications Branch, NASA HQ.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 11:48
EB DA - 8:59 - You are tuned in bro!>(DA - 8:59 - You are tuned in bro!):
- I always read your posts over and over...many clues...thanks!
Quick story: Great coup in DMK7. Had a WORTHLESS spread until the very LAST day MAY9-turned my worthless into a cool $750net...oh my...only to give it back and watch it go south again. No worries though, I made the HUGE$ in JYM7...HUGE...HUGE...HUGE...remember that?
anyway, once bitten twice shy... I am w/w with you at DM...very soon..and big?
has everyone had there glasses of frozen concentrate this A.M? or how about 15,000 lbs oh my!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 11:46
Perplexed: Wishing I owned my own central bank>(Wishing I owned my own central bank):
- The following comments were sent to CNBC this am---Attn: Jim Rogers Every Central Bank in the entire world is running their money printing presses day and night,printing local currency to be used to buy US Bonds --- why ---they can exchange local currency for dollar denominated bonds that yield 6+% go up in value every day by reason of the dollar appreciating against their local currency and the bond itself appreciating every day. The FRB pours fuel on this inferno by adding liqiidity every day.
My question to you @ kitco, How will this eventually be terminated?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 11:31
The point that the Russian CB is buying gold from its own producers and not from other CB's and therefore was not a source of demand to soak up other CB liquidation is absurd. When the supply and demand of gold is tallied up ALL consumption and ALL production is equivalent regardless of from where it comes. Taking the line of logic in this bizarre commentary to an extreme, I suppose that if the FED bought all the gold produced by US producers, and the CB of Austrailia bought all the gold produced by it s producers, and the CB's of Canada and South Africa did the same, and thus these CB's effectively bought most of worldwide production it also wouldn't count because they would not be buying gold supplied by other CB's and we could then expect further decline in gold prices.
If this is the best negative spin that the shorts have to offer, they are in deep trouble. The clock is still ticking.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 11:26
George Cole 1929 and 1997>(1929 and 1997):
- DA: I like your analogy comparing stock swapping by Japanese companies in the 1980s to debt swapping among CBs today. Of course, the Japanese stock swapping was a two-way street. Until recently, the foreign CBs were piling into U.S. debt, but the Fed was not acquiring foreign debt.
Seems to me that a key difference between the late 1920s and late 1990s is that much of the today's financial; establishment TRULY BELIEVES, the old rule don't apply anymore. Despite new era talk in the late 1920s, most of the financial establishment of that day never accepted it. Indeed the Fed began hiking rates well before the 1929 market crash.
The current line seems to be that the Fed may not have to hike rates until the next century and indeed may soon lower them. And if the Fed doesn't hike rate, a bear market cannot occur. I suspect the flaws in this line of reasoning will become evident shortly. We will have a hum dinger of a bear before long, but the cause almost certainly will NOT be rising rates. This probably will be the hook that keeps the crowd from selling until it is too late.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 11:16
RJ Gott'a go!>(Gott'a go!):
- Below is from CNN London today.
Data from the International Monetary Fund showing the Russian central bank bought 127 tonnes of gold in 1996 was noted by sources here, leading one analyst to comment: The appearance of central banks does not always spell doom and gloom.
However, another analyst cautioned the seemingly positive data was trying to make something bullish of nothing.
The information was presented by George Milling-Stanley of the World Gold Council, an organization representing producers which promotes gold use. He was speaking at the Diggers and Dealers forum in Kalgoorlie, Australia.
Andy Smith, analyst at UBS, said Russia regularly bought gold from its own miners in non-convertible rubles, a practice he described as kidnapping local output. Smith cautioned Russia had not purchased the gold from the market or another central bank so it was not the kind of offtake that would absorb any future central bank sales.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 11:07
- Your comments make me fluppostic all over, gotta' go change my skirt......
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 10:57
- I was doing fine with your last posting till I got to the gaelic in the last line. Please interpret. As a ex Dubliner, my gaelic is a bit rusty. Slainte.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 10:57
RJ Morning Quickies>(Morning Quickies):
- I agree with the buy low sell high philosophy. I must admit to some surprise that a galactic traveler such as yourself would seem to have such linear thinking. I sold plenty of gold at $328 +, when gold retests the recent lows or, better yet, makes new lows, I will buy what I have sold. I love buying low and selling high. I’m just not all that particular about which I do first.
Your comments about CBs reevaluating their hoards of gold as costly and non-earning is astute. I believe we have a fundamental change in the once sacred philosophy of holding large gold stores. They are coming to the realization that they have squandered squllions on this outdated notion. Gold simply does not have the same role as in bygone years. While this reapportionment of assets continues, gold will suffer. The added pressure of the EMU adds immediacy to this task.
- Fire insurance, your belt , the cop on your beat, and the military all employ the providers of these services. A lump of metal sitting in a vault employ only the guards of the vault. The vault maker? The vault would be made and purchased regardless of the amount of gold to eventually reside. The miners? Well mining has always been an iffy prospect at best. Prices go up, then they come down, only to rise again. Gold will do the same.
- Why the emotional resistance to fundamental market forces at work? Why does the Idea off lower gold prices offend you so? Gold is only worth what someone will pay you for it. If you doubt this, dig out a Maple Leaf and try to get $400 for it. This blind belief that gold is worth more than it is currently selling for, is nothing but a serious case of ignorality. When you ignore reality, it has the tendency to slap you in the face until noticed. I gotta’ go trade some metals.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 10:41
- Ted - You lead a hard life, but I 'spouse someone's gotta do it.
Au99.9 - If the Canadian goovernment had announced all of a sudden that they had, in the last few months, disposed of 2/3's of the hoard all at once, I guess we could of had an uproar too. Trouble is they did it bit by bit on the sly. Your guys are not only redmod but but spiss and sloomy as well!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 10:07
Good Morning to you and thanks for the URL's you post for us all.
re: Your 06:03 on the XAU components , I can recycle the following posted here by another kind Kitco dweller a few months back. Hope it's a start.
Normandy Mining closed unch today at $1.60. Heard of 3 Australian Gold Co's announced projects deferred/cancelled today due to low Gold price.
Happy Trading to all !
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 10:06
Au99.9 @Buying back the farm!>(@Buying back the farm!):
- At anything any price up to $340, it will be the Aussie Treasury sheepishly buying back its gold.The embarrassment and public ridicule over its crazy decision to sell two thirds of the country's gold has been just too much to bear.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 10:04
- D.A. -- As usual, very good points!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 09:58
- Comex report: Gold up 2.20;Silver up 5.5 cents;Platinum up 5.90;and Palladium up 3.10....Good afternoon JIN!...Time for some seakayaking....
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 09:48
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
- Nice so far in the gold. Currently watching the Dec contract. As I see it, if it doesn't break above 333, then odds are that it'll see 326.5 area. If it DOES break over, I'll be expecting to see about 339!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 09:44
- XAU off to a quick start...up .95....make that 1.02...Mornin Panda and thanks Speed...
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 09:41
- Larryn: As someone speculated earlier, maybe the Fed is doing the buying. That could explain gold up at the same time.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 09:40
- D.A. Well said concerning Japan. And there is every reason that Japan has more downside to look forward to as per this story from the Tokyo evening news.
Tokyo stocks tumble on margin unwinding
Stock price falls gained momentum towards the close Wednesday on
the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Margin unwinding
pushed the Nikkei Stock Average down to the day's low of 20,170.82
shortly before the key index closed at 20,212.82, down 189.92. The
key index hit the day's high of 20,418.84 in the morning.
Recent market leader Sony dropped sharply mid-afternoon, prompting
speculators to sell other electrical machinery shares. Banks lost more
ground, while food and retailer stocks remained weak.
Morgan Stanley and some other foreign brokerages placed sell orders
for mainstay shares, making market players even more cautious.
Losers numbered 851. Volume was estimated at 364 million shares.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 09:39
George Cole $330>($330):
- As I pointed out yesterday, the refusal of gold stocks to follow bullion lower signalled that a strong rebound would begin very shortly. EBN gold up $2.20 this morning despite strong bonds and robust dollar. Very bullish action indeed. VERY BAD news being ignored. Good chance that $330 will be taken out decisively today.
Interesting how the talking heads can rationalize absurdly high stock valuations. If Dow should reach 10,000 this year ( very unlikely, but not impossible ) expect to hear talk about second coming of Christ,long-term bond yields headed for 3%, etc. .
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 09:19
- In the recent past, gold has had a hard time sustaining a rally when the U.S. 30 year bond rate keeps dropping. This morning it is still descending, now 6.35.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 09:13
Bob M firstname.lastname@example.org>(email@example.com):
- I find it amusing that I believe yesterday the Dow hit its 74th new recoed for the year. Talk about becoming a non event! Day after day the same old thing, up, up, up..is complacency not setting in? The higher this market goes, the less newsworthy event it becomes, it is taken for granted..now some real headline news would be a 20% correction!!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 09:11
- RJ - Add Au99.9's squillions. I like it!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 09:10
nomercy A nerveous Andy Smith>(A nerveous Andy Smith):
- ...Andy Smith is quoted this morning, following gold's rise in Europe on physical buying . He's quoted as saying that Russia did not buy gold on the market but bought their own production. I haven't got the info. handy, but I believe that Russia's total yearly production is somewhere around 100 tons, and they purchased 197 last year. Perhaps somebody can confirm. If my statement is true, it would catch Andy in his own web of lies and vicious gold attacks to feed his short speculative position. And when your lies get bigger and bigger you begin to sweat..Its about time...
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 09:02
- Speed and ALL - If we can get anywhere near that rate of interest, buy as much property as you can, lock in the longest mortgage term possible, and sit back and enjoy the rst of your life!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:59
Let me take you back in time. The year was 1989, the place Japan. All through the land people were making killings in the stock market, and the best thing about it is that the investments were 'safe'. You see the Japanese, in addition to having a lock on the worldwide production efficiency and know how, had concocted this great scheme which virtually ensured that stocks could not go down. The strategy was simple, every company owned stock in every other company and none would ever sell. With so much stock 'tied up' there was not really enough float to satisfy the ever growing retail demand, thus stocks could only go in one direction.
Fast forward to the present. Central banks have now adopted the very same scheme. They print lots of money and with it buy each others debt. Liquidity rises, and bond prices remain strong, because the CB's will never dispose of each others debt. Bond's, and their brethren financial instruments stocks have only one way to go, up.
Meanwhile, its just another boring day with the dollar surging and gold going up. We are creeping ever closer to a breakout in DM. Interestingly enough it is slightly over 1% from here or right around $330-331 at curreny exchange rates. When this one breaks, its going to be big and fast.
Will gold go down and make $300? I really don't thinks so. Even if it does it won't be before the curreny batch of shorts is hammered. There are just too many of them all looking towards the same savior, Mr. CB. Here at Kitco we now have 4 active shorters if one is to believe the posts. I believe this is an alltime record. Who do you suppose is long if those that frequent the GOLD bb are short?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:56
- SPEED: Did the talking heads check with Japan and China before they made that forecast?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:50
nomercy 330 >(330 ):
- ebn 328.25
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:50
Speed @leaving for work>(@leaving for work):
- Time for a reality check? CNBC talking heads now optimistic that long term interest rates will hit 4.5%. Did I miss a memo?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:46
- PANDA: Who is buying bonds? Some suspect the Fed is the big buyer of late.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:44
- RJ - Mike's latest made up word Immedospect, is good enough to gain entry to the Mooney Dictionary, and can be defined as the modern short form of the previous commonly used phrase 'immediate inference'.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:41
- 6.351% on the long bond......... Really gone now............
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:38
- It's amazing how other countries let the U.S. export inflation via currency devaluations. The one question that I have is this; Who is buying all of the U.S. Bonds? If everybody is heading in to stocks, who's left to buy bonds? It may be a moot question, but at some point I would have expected bonds to start canabolizing the stock market. There doesn't seem to be any overt evidence of that happening yet. This seems strange to me, but then again, I can't create money out of nothing. Well, at least my credit lines don't add up to spit when compared to big Bro'. :- ) )
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:34
Anatomist Near the bottom>(Near the bottom):
- To Electron...I can't resist answering your question Uranis where are you? Answer is .....attached to your rectum.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:31
- It seems our site is full of cheerful news this morn. ;- ) Mike, yesterday ALL that I was telling you to do was to give the dog a pat for me. The castle thing was just a unique gold story that I had been meaning to tell for some time. Mine oncle's reaction was certainly not typical of what would have taken place had any of the inmates around here found that coin. No?
RJ - Thanks for the massaging missive. Previously I was pitchkettled and was tending to misgloze your intent, however your philotimy has come shining through and we have thus avoided any melpomenish episode. My mulligrubs has thus passed and I now determine to desquamate any malingerer-type shroud that I may have been displaying.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:21
Speed @more specific>(@more specific):
- Ted: The http part is case sensitive.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:19
- Donald -- This will take you right to the XAU
Good morning TED! Great cooool Canadian air down here!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:19
- Ted: Try all lower case: http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/9707/30/jerusalem.blast/index.html
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:16
- Donald -- Try this site for information on the XAU http://www.phlx.com/
Try this for info on the HUI index http://www.amex.com/options/intro.htm#s_index
You will have to download ADOBE Acrobat reader for the HUI page, but the download is free...
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:14
Au99.9 Fish & Beavers>(Fish & Beavers):
- Beaver, be eternally thankful to that you are a Beaver and not a fish, for with Electron's baiting technique, you might well be landed with his first cast.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:12
JIN YOU ARE EARLY BIRD...TED!>(YOU ARE EARLY BIRD...TED!):
CAn't wait for the actions?this one for you: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/30/z0000_2.html
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:06
- Bad dog!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:05
- Why ain't it in blue?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:04
Mike Sheller @@>(@@):
- Mornin Ted. Regret the news is so grisly, but thank you for delivering it. I've come to depend on you for instant updates on the cogent news every morning! RJ: Your precognizent prescience exceeds even that of Kitco's forlorn foregone feline. I awoke to find that Pepi had eaten up both rawhide laces in my favorite moccasins. ( No kidding!!! ) Perhaps you are in the wrong business, sir. Would you consider operating an empty storefront I have waiting just for you. What size turban do you wear? Franchises are still available. Bring your own cards. Will train.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 08:03
- Jerusalem bombing... Http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/9707/30/jerusalem.blast/index.html
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 07:32
- 18 now confirmed dead in Jerusalem bomb blast...
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 07:29
- Evening news from Japan. Industrial output falls 3.1%, Stocks tumble.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 07:16
- President of Brazilian Central Bank resigns.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 07:11
- Mornin Mike...I read that article on gold mining in the WSJ yesterday and got the sams feeling that this is the kind of thing one reads at a market BOTTOM...Doom+Gloom...
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 07:06
- Bomb blast at open air market in Jerusalem...at least ten dead and many injured...
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 06:59
Mike Sheller $2000 in 2000, & no IF's>($2000 in 2000, & no IF's):
- The 340 gold price is not merely a factor relating to recent trading. A support line connecting the '85 gold bottom with the 92/93 gold bottom runs roughly through the 325 - 340 level at the present time/space segment of the long-term gold chart. ( We have to give it a generous range to compensate for time/space aberration that occurs in all very long term futures graphs ) The recent breakdown below this level may be a portent of things to come, or an aberration . A return upward will probably meet important resistance at 340ish, but any significant rise above that level would indicate a bottom formation in progress. The prominent Wall Street Journal article yesterday about the strained economics of gold mining and the woes of producers is a classic gloom and doom industry piece. It is highly reminiscent of the kind of press General Motors and also IBM got as it looked as tho they were each, in their turn, going to slide off the face of the earth. Retrospect ( my favorite kind of 'spect ) shows that those moments were PRECISELY the time for bold investors to step in and buy shares. Immedospect says that the bottom in gold is either here now, or not very far away. Get Real...Get Gold.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 06:52
- ELECTRON: Re your comment Gold sitting in a vault costs money and earns you nothing. Let me counter with the following:
Fire insurance on your house costs money and earns you nothing.
The belt holding up your pants costs money and earns you nothing.
The cop on your beat costs money and earns you nothing.
Military forces cost you money and earn you nothing.
Gold should be in the vault. It has a purpose equal to or greater than all of the above.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 06:48
Mike Sheller Morning becomes Electron>(Morning becomes Electron):
- ELECTRON: Thanks. I guess you've said it all. What more could we lowly Kitcoites possibly add? Or were you just giving us a taste of the hilites of THE BEST OF KITCO soon to be released on CD Rom and Zip Disk?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 06:37
- As a regular lurker, I have observed that the most frequently used word on the site is....IF. For the sake of consistency, let me put the proposition to the many acknowledged experts at KITCO as follows:
IF...... we accept that the 'shorts'have no competition, then it follows that gold would go to zero and the shorts would make squillions as the price of gold continues to fall. But that wouldn't be rational. Therefore there must be a point when believers in gold cease to be scared off by all the bovine by-product about Central Bank selling and gold not having any real monetary value any more. At what ( buying ) point do the true believers in gold call the bluff of the shorts, exposing their naked positions thus forcing them to hock everything they own to take cover?
IF..... only the believers didn't believe that the non-believers could be right.
might we then see a sharp reversal of the index, exposing the naked position of the shorts. have to hock everything to cover their positions?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 06:36
George Cole in Florida>(in Florida):
You said it all. Amen!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 06:36
- ELECTRON: Re buying stocks when they are down. Do you mean gold stocks? Are they down enough to buy now? Which ones?
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 06:28
George cole XAU>(XAU):
- DONALD: The XAU components are Barrick, Newmont,Homesake, ASA, and Placer, plus one or two smaller ones. Byron can probably give you a complete listing.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 06:26
- Mornin Donald: I only see one pure silver play in the XAU and that's HL..
The others are ASA,ABX,BMG.ECO,HM,NEM,PGU,PDG,GLD,and TVX...
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 06:19
ELECTRON Uranis, where areyou>(Uranis, where areyou):
- Okay, now that I've covered the important stuff, here are a few other trivial thoughts that I've had related to this gold thingy:
The bestess strategy is to buy stocks when they are down, then patiently
hold on and wait for the companies to come back into favor. Buy when the Wall Street pros are sellin. They're a bunch of imbosiles.
Buy those stocks when the crowd is sure you're wrong. And don't just be contrary. Satisfy yourself through basic research that you're buying stock in well-managed companies, with bright golden futures. Sometimes Earthlings, it takes longer than expected, but you have not to be disappointed very often. More often than not, this strategy WILL produce outstanding results.
Gold mines are still out-of-favor on Wall Street and, therefore, should be very attractive to you.
Gold, as you may know being Earthlings and all, remains very weak. The strong stock market, the strong U.S. dollar, persistent low inflation ( hah-hah ) , and central bank selling of gold weigh heavily on the gold market. Holding gold has been a poor choice for investors like yourselves last year. You could have made more money in just about anything else. Buying stocks has been a clear winner over gold for over 15
The final blow to you goldbugs has been central bank gold sales. Central banks hoard 25% of the above-ground gold supply. Last
year, according to the Consolidated Goldfields report, central banks were net sellers of 239 tons, or 7% of total supply.
Central bank gold sales are no surprise to me. I could easily have told you a long time ago that this was going to happen. Gold used to be a source of confidence in a country's currency. No longer. Now, central banks need paper currency ( foreign reserves ) , to fight off
speculative attacks on their currency. In addition, central banks have come under pressure to earn interest, to pay down their costs. Gold, sitting in a vault, costs money and earns nothing. Central bankers have taken the challenge. They now sell their gold more
readily. They also lend gold, to raise money.
The change in attitudes about gold at central banks has been a brutal blow to gold investors. Some are ready to throw in the
towel. Goldfields, in its 1997 report, said: A new generation of managers, without the reverence for gold, shown by their
predecessors, is running central banks today. ( To some, gold is still a sacred investment. )
Now, all the bad news is out, and in plain view. The gold market has changed temporarily.
With inflation seemingly low and the dollar seemingly strong, gold looks seemingly weak.
Given that dismal scenario, why should you own a gold mining company? The answer is very simple, but you Earthlings make is so complicated. It's because of the rise of consumers around the world, especially in Asia. Do I need to repeat this? I have been watching gold and gold mining
shares for exactly 7 minutes now. The goldbugs have been throwing in the towel as you're so fond of saying. So, after the Burp-X scandal, and central bank gold sales, I recommend adding high-quality gold mining companies to your buy list.
Yes RJ, gold could go lower. Gold has been below $300 a couple of times since 1982. But will gold fall back to $300, before starting a new trend to higher levels? I doubt it. Demand for gold jewelry
is strong and rising. Central bankers know that. They have little to gain by dumping lots more gold, and killing the market.
When gold is weak, they are likely to pull back and wait for a recovery above $350, before selling. Jewelers, on the other hand,
know their market is growing and will take advantage of any weakness to build inventories.
If the unlikely happened, and gold did plunge below $300, it would not stay there long. Demand from jewelers alone would
spark a quick recovery.
While I do not expect gold to shoot back above $400 anytime real soon, neither do I expect it to plunge below $300. More likely, gold
will flounder at or near current levels for the next several months. But I see this Fall and especially 1998 and following years to be exciting ones for gold.
Eventually, rising demand for gold jewelry will produce a trend to higher gold prices. A year from now, I will be surprised if
gold is not at, or close to, $500. In the long run, I believe $1,000+ gold is inevitable.
Gold mining shares are not helped when gold is weak. In fact, it is difficult for gold mining shares to rise while gold is sinking. But the link between the price for an ounce of gold and profits is not so direct or automatic. Gold
mining shares can rise even when gold remains stable.
There are two distinct markets-one for gold bullion and another for high-quality gold mining shares.
The slide in the price of gold, and a much greater slide in the price of mining shares, opened wide the window of opportunity
for top quality mining shares. Big mining companies can now buy up small exploration companies on the cheap. At some time in the not so distant future, gold mining shares' stock price will shine again. This is likely to start happening when gold is still down, and while the share prices for small exploration companies remain crushed.
The best strategy is to buy some quality mining shares now and average in on the upside or downside. Look at any
price weakness in a good company as your chance to accumulate a meaningful position.
Good Luck and Boner Voyage!!!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 06:17
- Good mornin ALL....EBN Gold up 1.0 and Silver unch...European stox up big again...ditto Hang Seng...
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 06:10
- Joburg Gold Index down 1.08% at this hour.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 06:03
- GEORGE COLE: Do you have a list of the stocks that comprise the XAU? There is a silver angle to it also as I recall.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 05:54
George Cole XAU>(XAU):
- BYRON: Agree absolutely. If XAU can penetrate 98 with conviction, 110 should be seen shortly. And if bullion can break through the recent double top around 330, then $340 is just around the corner. If we are indeed moving from bear to bull, XAU should break out before bullion. If bullion leads XAU, I would be very suspicious.
Foreign stock markets generally strong overnight as was the dollar.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 05:45
ELECTRON BONER VOYAGE>(BONER VOYAGE):
- You Earthlings ( especially you, Beaver ) are a strange crowd! But I will continue to study your ways for a few more minutes. Now for this gold thing you discuss - I have read everything posted on this Super Information Highway, and unfortunately I AM NOT IMPRESSED! Quite frankly, I am bored to tears, and thus I will be speeding off soon. But before I bid farewell, I will share a few insights upon this gold investing thing you do.
Rule#1. Always remember to ( are you sure you're ready for this? ) Okay listen very carefully because this is the SECRET to your dilemma, always remember to... ... ...
BUY LOW and then SELL HIGH.
Okay, did everyone understand this? Let's all say it now:
BUY LOW and then SELL HIGH, BUY LOW and then SELL HIGH, BUY LOW ... SELL HIGH. Faster, faster, faster!!!
BUY LOW ... SELL HIGHBUY LOW ... SELL HIGHBUY LOW ... SELL HIGHBUY LOW ... SELL HIGH
BUY LOWSELL HIGHBUY LOWSELL HIGHBUY LOWSELL HIGHBUY LOWSELL HIGHBUY LOWSELL HIGH
BY LOSELHIBY LOSELHIBY LOSELHIBY LOSELHIBY LOSELHIBY LOSELHIBY LOSELHIBY LOSELHI
Rule#2. Okay, now listen extremely carefully! This is very important!!! Are you ready? Okay then, here goes: Rule#2 is to never, and I mean never, ever, ever, ever forget Rule#1.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 05:22
Beaver @Beavers Den>(@Beavers Den):
- Hey electron, the looney bin was the last turn off - you nut case moron! This is a gold site. Do you know what gold is?#!@% We humans value it very highly, we seek it, toil for it, detroy our Earth for it, sometimes worship it and more often than not would kill for it! Just stick around here and read some of the comments and you too can learn to be a civilized, intelligent human being. But be careful what you say, some here will attack you viciously if you do not please them!
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 04:26
- GEFF: Re Balanced Budget deal, the one party system is still buying votes. With OUR money! But the horse is about to open up because it is already inside.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 04:17
Electron orbiting innerspace>(orbiting innerspace):
- Hello? Is anyone here? It sure is dark in this place. I feel something warm and fuzzy. By the way, I'm lost - I need some directions. Can anyone help me? I think I made a wrong turn a couple of million miles back. I'm looking for the Internet Highway.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 02:15
KJB has this been posted yet?>(has this been posted yet?):
- Will the Dow Dive to 400? One Analyst Thinks So...MONEY, TIME
Among the last of the stubborn bears, analyst Robert Prechter stands
out for his bold projection that the dow will plummet from 8,000 to 400.
Could it happen? Share your opinion in The Money Pit, and
read Time's take on how Wall Street's bracing for a fall.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 01:14
6pak Why Save @ Rainy Day>(Why Save @ Rainy Day):
- Boom-and-bust business cycle may be vanishing
July 30 1997
by: Bud Jorgensen - Economics Reporter The Financial Post
*Royal Bank Study*
Steven Weber, a professor at the centre for advanced study in Behavioral
Sciences at the University of California, pursues these issues in a paper
called The end of the business cycle? ( It is published in the latest
issue of Foreign Affairs, a public journal. )
If the business cycle is fading away, as Weber suggests, consumers will
be less concerned about saving for a rainy day.
- Date: Wed Jul 30 1997 00:17
EB it's bad...but then again...I'm the boob...>(it's bad...but then again...I'm the boob...):
- There once was a semi-demi called Newporter
Who played darts for dollars and a quarter
and then one day
pseudo EB took his cash AWAY!
and together they sold gold shorter and shorter
EB ;- )