Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:55
Savage a plea for sanity>(a plea for sanity):
MY FRIENDS: Has it occurred to anyone that this cat business is a deliberate attempt to disrupt this ( formerly excellent ) forum? The intellectual level has certainly deteriorated since the arrival of this new addition; AND since he has successfully baited several of you into the alley with him. Let us get back to the ( pressing ) business at's hour may be imminent!! Let's not miss it watching a hissing match! BART: You have the helm; the ship needs a strong hand at the rudder... especially during this watch. IMVHO

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:49
PB --->(---):
Senator Blutarsky: I am willing to endure Hepcat's persistent bashing of bullish gold sentiment, but I would feel a little better if I was sure that he didn't have some nefarious purpose re the market. After all, he has spent innumerable hours and energy attacking others without declaring his purpose.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:45
D.A. ( 19:25 ) : A superb offering. Please post it once a week as the goldbug manifestoe. Even though its implications are broader than mere goldbuggery.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:42

Last post of the night. Hem - After $325, I am not looking for
any particular number. Thanks for bringing the discussion
back to gold, and providing a more balanced view of
gold consumption in India. I am not denying that India
or China could provide the seed crystal for a turnaround,
I just don't see it being sustained without the influx of European
or N.A. money and the publicity machine.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:38
Senator Blutarsky Retired>(Retired):

Look, until gold truly shakes the bear, I am afraid that we must suffer hepcat gladly. Hey all, sit back, relax, and have a brew. It don't cost nothin.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:37
checking @out>(@out):
Folks I'm outa here! whata bunch of nit wits

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:35

In the absense of TED tonight, gold has slippped down somewhat
unnoticed. I never thought when predicting $325 on July 29 that
I would be too high. Yipes. I could be hoisted on my own petard
for being too optimistic.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:32
Hem ny@usa>(ny@usa):
Gary mentioned in his 17:49 post that the young generation in Asia
is interested in western goods and not gold. My own observation,
based on recent contacts with some young Asian Indians, is that
Gary is probably right. They are- at least the men, and many of the
women - very much interested in automobiles, and have no interest
in gold. So, as a long term investment, oil is probably a better
buy than gold.

However, I also read in recent news from India that there has been
some kind of gold rush in India since the recent price decline.
( Do they think it's the bottom? ) I personally know people who were
waiting since last December for gold prices to come down before
buying. India's gold imports this year are expected to be 25
percent more than last year. India is the second largest producer
of gold jewelry, after Italy, and consumes 90 percent of the
production domestically. Gifts of gold jewelry are a must for
Indian marriages, and serve as a last resort store of savings for
hard times.

John and a few others are looking for a round number for a bottom
( or base ) , but is dollars/ounce the only unit to consider?
As I mentioned earlier 311 USD/oz is very round if one buys in
units of 10 grams or Kg.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:31
6pak Citizen @ USofA & Canada>(Citizen @ USofA & Canada):
Mr. Greenspan also said the Fed was concerned about the high rate of
*job creation* and the strength behind *the expanding economy*
The Federal Reserve must be *alert* to the *possibility* that
additional *action* might be called for to forestall *excessive* credit

New Economy theories, the Fed is not involved in an experiment.
Mr. Greenspan said: The costs of a failed experiment would be much too
burdensome for too many of our citizens

Soooo, Mr. Greenspan is concerned about *our citizens* One would ask
what citizen is Mr. Greenspan speaking, on behalf of? Bankers maybe.

Congressional Representative Louis McFadden, as chairman of the House Banking and Currency Committee, on May 23 1933, introduced, House
Resolution no. 158. Articles of Impeachment.

Mr. McFadden, was subjected to a whisper campaign that McFadden was
*insane* swept Washington. He was defeated, by thousands of dollars that
poured into his home district of Canton Pennsylvania.

May 23 1933, Articles of Impeachment against the Secretary of the
Treasury, two Assistant Secretaries of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve
Board of Governors, and officers and directors of the Federal Reserve
Banks for their guilt and collusion in causing the Great Depression.

I charge them with having unlawfully taken over 80 billion dollars from
the United States Government in the year 1928, the said unlawful taking
consisting of the unlawful recreation of claims against the United States
Treasury to the extent of over 80 billion dollars in the year 1928, and
in each year subsequent, and by having robbed the United States
Government and the people of the United States by their theft and sale of
the *gold* reserve of the United States

The Resolution, no. 158, never reached the floor.

On January 13 1932, McFadden, also made a Resolution, and there was no
action taken on this Resolution.: Indicting the Federal Reserve Board
of Governors for Criminal Conspiracy

Whereas I charge them, jointly and severally, with the crime of having
treasonably conspired and acted against the peace and security of the
United States and having treasonably conspired to destroy constitutional
government in the United States.

Resolved, that the Committee on the Judiciary is authorized and directed
as a whole or by subcommittee to investigate the official conduct of the
Federal Reserve Board and agents to determined whether, in the opinion of
the said committee, they have been guilty of any high crime or
misdemeanour which in the contemplation of the Constitution requires the
interposition of the Constitutional powers of the House

The Citizen's Government of the USofA, has attempted, via, elected
Representative's, done their best to address the issue of the Federal
Reserve Board. The citizens are not up to speed, on the issue of the Fed.
I, as a Canadian, expect, that in the very near future, the people of
the USofA, will in fact come to terms with the issue of GOLD, and the
Federal Reserve Board. To be sure Eh! Canada also, with her Bank of

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:29
Sirocco @queens>(@queens):
Lurker007: sorry. It did not take 8 minutes to post my last fascinating post. I am not spending all my time on Kitco. Just lurking. And seeing that this board has gone downhill just because of politics, religion and personalities.
I am still lurking because they are some great contributors ( Cole, Vronsky, Arden, and many others ) . That's all. Hepcat has some points. I did not think he posted the cretin post. In fact I bet the proctologist did. ( A basically mean fellow, with a sadistic trend ) .
I don't think slang and GI or GU attacks are very effective. Just a way for some mean, sour, oxydated and rancid fellows to vent their frustation off. Just harmless and completely ineffective.
They are Big egos on this boards... We say BIG egos, but in fact the problem is that these big egos reactions reflect very small and fragile egos inside. That is why they snap and react like that. Thay cannot tolerate a small attack or ideas that are different than theirs. Just my opinion.
Does anybody needs any medication on this board: of course not. Does some of us need to go to Queens and see the optimism there, simply paralelling the DOW... I think some probably could benefit. But then again, what do I know.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:28
TC @alley meet>(@alley meet):
Stop screaming Hepcat, and help us out. We aint betting money on
Gold, so how about that challenge.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:27

Just so you can move on to something else, Sirocco imitators, I am
not addressing Sirocco, Scirocco, or anyone named Rocco or Ricky Rococo
on this site tonight. I have no reason to address them, even the real

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:26
PB --->(---):
All: Does anyone know why Hepcat might be so passionate about discouraging people from being bullish on gold?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:24
Sirroco mr. john>(mr. john):
HEPCAT I didn't post the last post atributed to me. However, you want war I will give you war.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:20
PB - We're through talking ( I finally got it. You're reliving the Monty Python
argument sketch. )

Larry - I appreciate your tangentiality, but I am completely lost
as to what you're asking?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:17
Greg - I'm glad you enjoyed that column ( The hard facts about male
erectile dysfunction ) . It was a lighthearted attempt to address a
stigmatized subject, and was a companion piece to a column about
the large number of unnecessary hysterectomies performed in the U.S.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:16
larry who gives....>(who gives....):
heps, is she still considering?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:14
PB --->(---):
Hep: I had no template, as you put it. I also was not looking for victory, and I am still a little confused as to your intentions. You consider it your mission to discourage people from being bullish on gold?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:14
Tired of the BS>(of the BS):
To the real Sirroco. I apologize for my comment.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:13
Greg at hepcat>(at hepcat):
I didn't know you are ball joggler?!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:11
who cares anymore----------- @two words----bull sheet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!>(@two words----bull sheet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!):
don't need this sheet anymore----

----rat-cat can have it all----------------

went from great to full of hate----------------

the time is right----to drop out of sight-----------

another time another place------------------------------

kitco has lost its' luster-----------------------------------

!; ( ---------------------------------------------------------------

away-----into the ether--------immfat--dotssm----tsssarfat------------

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:10

PB - Great, I'm glad I finally said something that could fit the template
you had made for me tonight. Except this time you had to confuse what
I said about harassing me to get it to work. I don't care if I provide the
nightly entertainment at this site. I enjoy the harassment by qualified
people because it can be rather fun, and it keeps them from posting
nonsense about imminent explosion in gold. You eaked out your
victory, but somehow I don't think you even needed me to convince
yourself of what you already thought.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:09
Greg at Sirroco>(at Sirroco):
Sirroco-Are you the queen of the Queens?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:07
Lurker 25 Fed up>(Fed up):
All : Don't ever wrestle a pig. You're sure to get dirty and he likes it.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:06
Lurker007 @idiot>(@idiot):
I'm from Queens har har har har

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:06
PB --->(---):
Hepcat: Thanks for your post. I am happy my patience paid off. I see that you admit to having deliberately provoked people in order to see how they would react ( George Cole ) , which habit of yours explains to me the origin of an accusation that you leveled at me earlier, i.e., that I was using you for entertainment purposes. Sometimes when we accuse we accuse ourselves most accurately.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:05
Greg at hepcat>(at hepcat):
I don't think that you can perform!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:04
Guys, I don't care if you post under my handle,
but at least do a better job of manufacturing artificial
exchanges. I'm not going to attack Sirocco.
Also, figure that I might have a very long post
upcoming, in which case it would be impossible
for me to post a short one around the same time
as the long one.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:04
Tired of the BS>(of the BS):
PB - Crapcat!!! He enjoys it. I can tell. Just a thought: Feed the cat, he stays. Ignore and starve the cat, he goes away!!!!

Look out!!! We're being tag teamed by Sirocco!!!!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:02
Lurker007 @sirocco>(@sirocco):
Sirocco ( 22:53 ) It took you EIGHT minutes to come up with THAT har har har

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:02
larry who gives ......>(who gives ......):
hepcat, is your wife still considering that new job?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:02
Earl @worldaccessnet.>(@worldaccessnet.):
Front ( 18:17 ) : You should do that more often. Ramble that is. Your thoughts seem to be predicated on the infinite power of statehood. Though valid at the moment, we may find that power to be limited after all. .... Did I detect a tone of resignation as well

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:02
Lurker007 @sirocco>(@sirocco):
Sirocco ( 22:53 ) It took you EIGHT minutes to come up with THAT har har har

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 23:00
Sirocco @queens>(@queens):
The last Sirocco's fascinating note ( the proctotolgist ) was not mine. Back alley stabbing. Very courageous.
Oh! Well! We exposed the true faces of some on this board. Mean fellows. A la Bob Dole. Just that.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:59
172-638-4677 ss@baltimore>(ss@baltimore):
Tired. Monthly social security disability checks are not large by normal standards but over the lifetime of a 30 year old they amount to a substantial sum.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:59
George Cole>(
WW: Your 19.06 post TELLS IT LIKE IT IS. The gold market is like a volcano. Pressure is building for a truly historic eruption. And the longer the pressure is allowed to accumulate, the bigger the explosion.

D.A. You are correct that either stocks go down a whole lot or many other assets must go up a whole lot to restore economic and financial equilibrium. Or some combination of the two. What this means for gold investors is that the higher stocks go today, the higher gold goes tomorrow.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:58

A couple of participants asked how I came to Dow 9000.. Well, I believe we are
in Elliot wave 3 from the low in 4/14/97. This wave could go as hi as 8300 give or
take a few, and then if we get a .38 retracement. or even a .50 retracement from
the 8300 high a typical 5th wave would be between .62 and 1.0 times EW3..
that would be 9000 plus. I figure approx. 9200.. You must also understand I think
this is the 5th wave ( longer term ) but we are in wave 3 of the 5th.. I think Aurophile will understand this. So, more highs will come, and the next correction will be EW4 of the longer term EW5.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:57
Lurker007 @tired>(@tired):
Tired: Hepcat is so successful he lives in apartment A har har har har and he sits in his apartment ( A that is ) and posts almost continuously on Kitco because he has such an interesting and stimulating life. har har har

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:56

PB - Give me a chance. I'm juggling about 10 balls in the air at
this time, and yours is the least interesting. You seem like a nice
guy about a half a step slow. My talking to comic book characters
means that people on this site use handles like LanMan or leaner
or Zip the Wonder Puppet. How else should I address them if that's
what their handle is? Do you understand? I feel like I'm yelling at
comic book characters because their names are like comic book
As to why I am angry, I am only angry when provoked. For example,
D.A. and I have a working relationship. Selby and I have a working
relationship. In many cases they had to go out of there way to ignore
my theatrics, and they definitely wouldn't could me among their
coevals, but I think ( I hope ) we have an understanding that I see
their posts are heartfelt honest and, furthermore, was some grasp of
current goings-on. They may say different things about me in private,
or indeed, they may take the oppportunity now to say things to me
in public, regardless, I won't attack them like I attack people who
attack me. With Aurophile, it goes back to my perception that he
knew Flag was a scam and he took part in it with a wink and a nod.
Some people I attack just because I initially provoked them out of
pure randomness just to see how they would respond, and they
didn't respond very well. George Cole is one, but I don't really feel
so bad about this anymore because George is convinced that he
reversals in gold and the Dow with be leviathan, and this just deludes
people into having false hope. The turnaround will come, but it will
be as drug out as the approach. Of course, if in being banned from
this site I could take one person with me, it would definitely be
Stephen Mooney. Stephen is like that Albert Brooks comment in
Broadcast News about how the devil appears. Of course, that was a
movie and Stephen's ineptitude has been showing of late, but still,
you always remember your first fight.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:56
PB --->(---):
Tired: I see. So this could be all part of a monstrous fiction. Hence aurophile's references to Iowa, where I think they have fiction workshops, etc. Well, it still disturbs me that someone would spend so much time maintaining such a lie, with such apparent glee. What possible gain could he derive?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:54
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Front, incidental, Kodak had a good value at Sams club, price equal to Fuji. New film speed rated 800 but supposed to self adjust to light conditions. Am trying it out this week, it will sell well if it performs well. Maybe their marketing woke up and smelled the coffee.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:53
Why don't you conduct a proctological exam on yourself!!!!!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:52
Tired of the BS>(of the BS):
PB - How do we all know crapcat is successful. Has anyone seen his wallet or bank account. Anyone one can get into this forum and blow smoke up everyones you know what!!!!!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:48
What is your current investment strategy and allocation?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:45
I am capable of defending myself you cretin.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:43
Hi JIN! Thank you for the latest news in your area....I'm sure my brother is making a killing in Bangkok tonight...his own! hahaha...Take care Jin,it's late and I'm going to sleep...HAPPY TRADING.....Goodnight all!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:41
aurophile gold-on-gold>(gold-on-gold):
Dr. Meissner: Denial will get you nowhere. Insist to yourself ( this is hopeless, folks ) that you must always take your medicine and live a healthy life. I'm such an optimist that I believe that schizophrenics CAN be productive, however much pain and distress they cause those around them. Put those writing talents to work. I'll be at an agents' conference in LA next month if you would like to pursue that avenue. Get a life!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:39
Sirocco @Queens>(@Queens):
Cherokee: Oh! You republican you. Is Cherokee your real name?... Or is it Hoover by any chance?... Striking hepcat from the dark and back alley... So courageous of you. I love it.
Keep it up. Continue investigating hepcat. Shut him out. You are just wonderful!
Just give hepcat another day or two.... Please. He has some points ( I think ) . Too bad you are going to shut him out on technicalities. Oh! Well!. You have to do what you were born to do: as a good american indian cherokee, you have to sell the white fellow to the white government, and then you will hide again behind your wonderful cryptic and pseudo-poetic language.
But I guess we will have to keep your flux on this board.
Queens looks good tonight. Nothing bad here. Everything is fine. Crime, despair and poverty is gone. Therefore lets focus our intellect and energy on trying to report hepcat to our government and to shut him out for good. He is sooo very dangerous, isn't he?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:39
PB --->(---):
In the interests of harmony, and since he seems either to be unaware of my posts or deliberately blocking them out, does anyone have any idea why my most esteemed colleague Hepcat spends so much energy pouring salt on the wounds of those who haven't been as lucky as him? It seems like a strange enterprise to me.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:36
though,gained in metal price,still lost in forex ground.In the way,i think the best method is buy more, this moments.
the asia financial ministers going to have the close door meeting tomorrow at SHANGHAI,CHINA.very concern abt the financial around asia,small g 7 meet!
TERIMA KASIH! ( thank you! )

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:32

Aurophile: DU is Ducks Unlimited, so no points there.
Who is the other John? ( Also going to have to give you no points for that )
Why must you conjure up someone who is your equal to admit you
were bettered? Aurophile, a German polka band was more qualified than
you to tell where gold was going last year. Your a smart guy, and you
were wrong. I'm an average intelligence guy with no interest in what you
do, and I was right. That's life.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:32
RJ Fuel Cells>(Fuel Cells):
Front - Your 18:17 was on target. Regarding electric cars of the future: Current battery technology is not practical for use in electric cars. Existing electric cars can only drive about 100 miles before needing a recharge. Where is the electricity going to come from to charge these batteries? Primarily from fossil fuel power plants. There is an additional problem of highly corrosive and toxic chemicals within the batteries. When ever there is a serious car accident, first call the paramedics, then call the hazardous materials unit.

Enter the fuel cell. This is actually old technology that is finally becoming cheap enough to be considered viable. Fuel cells are what powered the Apollo missions to the moon, and are currently what powers the space shuttle in orbit. Remember the mission they had to cut short a few months ago? The reason was a malfunctioning fuel cell. This was only one of three cells, but NASA loves redundancy.

A fuel cell is an ingeniously simple device. It is actually a chemical electricity generator. By bringing hydrogen and oxygen together with a catalyst, a chemical reaction takes place that produces electricity. The key to this reaction is the catalyst. You guessed it, platinum. Again our magic metal shines again, not with aesthetic beauty, but with its wonderful catalytic properties. Only platinum has the right stuff to make the fuel cell viable. Even palladium will not suffice. Think of it, by using the most abundant substance in the universe - hydrogen - and oxygen from the air around us, electricity can be generated. The truly beautiful thing, is that the only waste product from the chemical reaction is water. You could drink the emissions from a fuel cell car.

Mercedes built the worlds first fuel cell car in 1995, and General Motors built their version in 1996. These prototypes cost about 100K now but the industry expects to be able to produce a 40K fuel cell car within five years. Prices will continue to drop as production speeds up. It is actually cheaper, is some cases, to install a fuel cell array rather than run power lines to a new facility such as a post office or school.

Now for the kicker: The amount of platinum required in a fuel cell car will be 5 - 10 times as much as is used in a catalytic converter. Fuel cell platinum will have to be replenished from time to time creating an ongoing demand of platinum. Our future holds the prospect of greater and greater platinum demands, so don’t sell the stuff yet. It could well replace gold, Lord knows it has a hell of a lot more uses.

EB - li·mic·o·lous ( lì-mîk¹e-les ) adjective: Living in mud

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:27
TED @mainlander>(@mainlander):
M.Graves: You should kill the ground hogs NOW....

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:25

And very few people know about the risks of investing in gold, or enumerate
the risks of driving a car everytime they start it up in the morning. What, do
you want people who are planning to invest in the stock market to watch
footage of Hiroshima or Sudan refugee camps? Zeke, your last post makes
you out to be more reasonable than I initially pegged you for, and I don't
want to start an argument. But if I had to choose my risk, I would choose the
stock market over gold for the next month. As a long term investment, if
you're so concerned about the risk, buy tax-free bonds.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:25
PB --->(---):
Hep: Who said that this is a Gold is Eternally Good club? I happen to think gold has some positive virtues, but that is simply my own opinion, much as your opinion is your own. As far as talking to comic book characters goes, you have only yourself to answer for that.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:22
aurophile gold on gold>(gold on gold):
Dr. John Meissner:

Now that you've outted yourself under the press of events, why don't you also admit whence your gold expertise arises and invite the other John to the site? At least he has a professional perspective.

You have to admit that my diagnosis of your condition was correct. Of course my contacts at DU were able to confirm.

Finally, doesn't the Sugarloaf ( or Iowa ) writers conference have a site which would help you more?

My best to your long-suffering father...

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:22
Tired of the BS>(of the BS):
Hey everybody!!!! In between all the serious postings and the expected future profits in the worthless yellow metal, I'm enjoying all the comic relief from Mister Crapcat!!!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:19

I appreciate all the advice about getting my house in order,
not purchasing any LP's, etc., but I'm a little confused as to
who exactly is going to go postal on me. I have insulted people
who don't even have names. Most of the time I am yelling at
comic book characters. It is very clear in Bart's policy that no
editorial control is exerted, so what exactly makes everybody
think that this is a Gold is Eternally Good Club? Your position
is currently not supported by the numbers or the numbers of
posters, and if we could accordian down everyone posting under
multiple handles, there would be even fewer on your side.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:18
Gene ( 14:41 ) : That was a remarkably good post with the quote from Camus. In essence, it is not a good idea to swap the ephemeral for the solid. He who does, does so at his own peril. ......The post was also a breath of fresh air. gasp!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:16
PB --->(---):
Hep: At the risk of being accused of being an idiot, perhaps you could tell me why you are so angry all the time?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:12
I did not say the market will crash in 72 hours. I feel that people who ask others Where should I put my money? should not be in stocks.
Nobody should invest in something they know little about. I think that you will agree that the average investor knows very little about the risks of stocks.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:12
Archimedes: You are correct, future is in water. Directly related to CA,NM,&AZ. Imperial Valley has the real gold.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:12

Hey M. Graves - Is that the best you can do?
You probably never hit the pinata when you were a kid, did you?
Probably even after they took the blindfold off...

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:10
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
Hey Dribble-cat.... You are obviously lonely and need attention!!!It's too bad you couldn't carry on an intelligent conversation. I think the only job you have, is to phone home for more money!!!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:09
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
Hey Dribble-cat.... You are obviously lonely and need attention!!!It's too bad you couldn't carry on an intelligent conversation. I think the only job you have, is to phone home for more money!!!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:08

Gosh, MaryTheresa, seems like you sidetracked yourself.
Why didn't you just say what you wanted from the beginning,
instead of dispensing prescriptions?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:04

Zeke Whoever - As per usual, Kitco regulars are a liitle late coming to the
party and a little too early in dispensing the doomsday advice. The current market is not particularly dangerous. You're calling a market dangerous one day
after Greenspan gives it his blessing? Do your friend a favor and keep quiet.
We were hearing this talk from everyone at 7000. I am not saying this market
is not going to crash, I'm just saying it's not going to crash within the next
72 hours.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 22:01
PB --->(---):
Hep: Please accept my apologies. But understand that I certainly did not post it, nor it is my intention to derive entertainment from you.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:59

Lighten up, Francis.

PB - Absolutely, it came after my last post of the evening. Bart can
confirm it if you need further proof. Get serious. Did you really think
after all of that crowing I was suddenly going to become weepy?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:56
John Meissner
of 4310 American Drive, Apt. A, Durham, NC 27705, phone number: 919-382-7423.
Be very careful when you insult someone. Sometime you may run into someone who will want to get even with you. There are guys out there who are much tougher then you. Just a friendly tip.
Good luck.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:55
Mary-Rose Down Under>(Down Under):
Sorry about my last 2 postings folks, I really only came here because of the horrific fall in gold-prices following our Reserve Banks' sale of gold. I am left with a lot of gold shares that are worth a lot less than they used to be. I am trying to get some idea what to expect.......because gold has become a four letter world amongst Australian investors lately. People remain pessimistic and if Wall St has any serious correction my shares will be worth even less. The Australian market seems to go to bed with pneumonia if Wall St sneezes, but does not follow it up with the rallies. I'm afraid I lost the plot a little with one of the other posters here.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:47
1. Buy low sell high.
2. When everyone wants it - the price is too high.
3. Explain to me the difference between DOW 5000 and DOW 8000. Improved productivity? Higher earnings? Higher dividents? You simply pay higher prices for stocks because of demand! Millions of sheep want stocks because of publicity! Average investor knows nothing about companies he invests in. Products, procesess, strategies, customers? Who cares, they buy because their friends buy, because the media talks about 25% returns. Do you want to invest in Microsoft or Intel? Why? What do you know about them? P/E 19 great you will break even in 19 years. Unless another greedy fool will pay you even more for your share. Do your friend a favor and tell her to put her money in a shoebox in her closet. This is a VERY dangerous market.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:47
PB --->(---):
Hep: I'm not sure what you're talking about... Do you mean that you deny that you made the post in which you said that you wanted to be a doctor because it guaranteed you a source of income?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:42

P.B. - Sorry, that must have been you that posted the
My father promised me things that didn't come true.
That post was made after I signed off for the night.
As for the rest of your comment, I forgot what you said, and
I'm not going to open another window to find out,
but rest assured we have been over this ground before,
and if you want entertainment, you're going to have to step
aside and let someone else harass me.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:40
Pascal Coins for IRA account>(Coins for IRA account):
To all: I would be interested in any info or links to firms that can administer an IRA funded with American Gold Eagles. Thanks.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:39
Tired of the BS>(of the BS):
Yes, Crapcat. But every cowboy will eventually sing I'm headed for the last roundup before their put to pasture!!!!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:36
Machf15.......yes, I've gloc'd a couple times today with some of these posts. Staffing it right now but just finished 3yr rpi1 on some high viz stuff at kedw.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:34
To all......especially those who have friends who think gold is the silliest thing ever.

I think that is just a GenX viewpoint. In the last three years, I had the opportunity to visit just over 100 different countries. I can assure everyone that gold and silver are still big deals in many parts of the world - to include China.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and all the Middle East have outdoor shops ( called Sukes ) where they sell all kinds of gold. Gold bars, coins, and of course 22 and 24 karat jewelry. The women buy them and wear them under their robes. They always wear their gold as to be prepared for the day they may get thrown into the streets by their husband ( ie, divorced ) . If that happens, they are allowed to keep their material possessions. ( Not much of that happens today, but the tradition goes back to the Bedouin days. )

Ditto with gold shops in Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, etc. Jewelery is sold very close to the spot price of gold. Yes indeedy fellow goldbugs and lurkers, there is still a strong GRASS ROOTS level demand for gold and silver. It would seem that the current market and heavy hitters has deluded that demand somewhat.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:34
PB --->(---):
Hep: It's a mistake to revel in another's misfortune. I am sorry your father used to promise things to you that didn't come true, and that your faith was damaged, but it shows a lack of understanding and compassion to systematically destroy the faith of others.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:32
Front.......whew! Blew my doors off with your essay! Good job!

Frankly, I had never thought of your China scenario before. It seems that with everyone focused in on Hong Kong, the other 99.999% of China is going unwatched.

Goes back to a basic fundamental: the one thing that has lasted through the centuries is gold and silver. There were times that gold was not popular. Perhaps bartering was the in thing during those times. ( My apologies that I don't have any hard historical data to post at this time. )

Of course, it would be ironic if China leads a new world order by stockpiling gold. They were the ones who invented paper money in the first place!!

Anyone know of studies that tracked what happened after China started issuing their first paper? Was there a subsequent failure or reordering?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:31

P.B. - I'd rather be lucky than Aurophile, believe me. My future is
brighter because of it.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:25
PB --->(---):
Hep: You've just been lucky.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:24

Aurophile - Please, tell us more stories of how it is inevitable that gold
is going to $365.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:21

I am comforted by the fact that I was wrong on this site for the last year.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:13
I enjoy this page, because a lot of the people share thought provoking Concepts and Ideas.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:12
Robert Pringle, Head of World Gold Council strongly criticizes Aussie Central Bank ( RBA ) FOLLY in sale of 2/3s of its gold. Following RBA sale, Aussie Gold Reserves lose $3 billion!!!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:10
PB --->(---):
John Hepcat, I'm telling you this because I love you: You should get things right with your soul real soon. Be careful. Also, I think gold has an intrinsic value that you have missed. Tired's comments should be taken seriously.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:07
Donald: Before the advent of the Idiot ( which I have always meant in the Dostoyevskyan sense ) late last year, I used to post quite a bit on gold and the long economic waves and history. I sense recently the coming together once more, in the face of static and disruptions, of an excellent group of posters. Amongst that group I particularly value your contributions.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:03

Thanks for posting the links to my columns. They brought back a lot of
fond memories. I'm not sure how they would be humiliating to me.
They were written for a college-age crowd ( this was a school newspaper )
and I was invited to contribute by the editor. He ( and the following year,
she ) didn't seem too humiliated with them. The North Carolina Press
Association didn't award them Most Humiliating Columns in a Daily Publication
If you believe I was a courier based on the Wendover column, then
I guess you would also have to believe I was driving at 120 mph without
headlights across the Nevada desert transporting dice with inducible
ferromagneticity. In other words, the column drifted quite a bit into the realm of
fiction, although many of them are fact-based - I trust you can make the
distinction. The CDC is in Atlanta. Atlanta is in Georgia. For me to commute
every day from Durham to Atlanta would take six hours each way. I'm not
sure how much you want to push this idea that I live in an apartment.
Gosh, using that logic, you could say I lived in a dormitory, since I did live
in a dormitory when I was going to college. Also, I hope you continue to
belittle me based on selective reporting of what you find on the net. Your next search would be on Medline, I assume.. I don't see how it helps you, because I
have said all along that I am besting you. So to say you are getting
beat by a courier who lives in an apartment six years after graduation
from medical school is to make your sides collective intelligence really

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 21:03
Gene @Reality-How many ways silver is used contest.>(@Reality-How many ways silver is used contest.):
DA, As you probably already know silver is used in the manufacture of photovoltaic cells. An increasing number of medications contain silver or silver compounds. Silver is used by all the airlines to keep drinking water on the planes from multiplying bacteria. Every time you take a drink of airline water you drink a small amount of pure silver. The Brita water filter also uses silver.

Gold may be the element used in the next generation of computer chips. It can handle higher speeds at less heat than silicon. Only a very thin wafer per chip is needed--very economical. Because of its unique cellular structure gold may have a strong future in electronics. DA I enjoy reading your posts.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 20:59
Tired of the BS>(of the BS):
Crapcat, You are wrong!!!

Lets analyze for a moment:

Gold goes to $250, mines all over the world began to shut down. It becomes to expensive to extract the ( thought to be ) worthless yellow metal.
Supplies start drying up.
Industries cannot produce products. After awhile the jewerly stores are empty.
The wifes and girlfriends ( and in some cases mistresses ) of wealthy ( on paper ) Wall Street speculators needing their weekly fix, rush out to their favorite jeweley store to splurge.
When they reach their destination they are turned away by the out of business sign.
They make it back home all depressed and rush to the medicine cabinet to locate the prozac.
When the rich ( on paper ) gentlemen return home that evening, they are greeted with sobs,crying, and tales about all the jewelery store closures.
The gentlemen proceed to tell the ladies that all gold is worthless and not a desirable commodity by according to the market.
The ladies proceed to tell them they are self concerned and heartless and they cannot believe the men could let such a thing happen.
The ladies show the gentlemen to the couch and there will no whoopy until the matter is resolved.
The next day there panic on Wall Street. Men rush out and sell stocks in order to raise the cash to buy gold.
The price of gold begins to rise.
The mines go back into production. It again is profitable to produce the now desirable yellow metal.
There is enough gold on the market.
Jewelers are back in business.
There is peace once again in the home.

See, Gold does have value!!!!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 20:49
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
To Larryn, My broker on Wall Street trades Canadian Stocks for me. The quotes are in Canadian dollars. I don't know if its standard but sometimes there is a small extra charge. I've bought stocks on the Toronto and the Montreal exchange--all gold stocks. Good trading.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 20:38
Donald @Home>(@Home):
AUROPHILE: That is a very nice chart. I love the long term stuff. You can see the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, you can even spot the Wage and Price controls of WWII. Several weeks ago we were talking about who won the Cold War. Your chart shows, starting 1950, the price we paid, or are still paying. If indeed we won, it didn't come cheap. I hope history proves we did the right thing.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 20:32
nomercy Aussie's news>(Aussie's news):
Forget their rhetoric about inflation, its
and their currency will take another beating.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 20:28
Front to D.A.>(to D.A.):


Thank you for your excellent post regarding my ramblings. I note many things that you have mentionned that I truely had not noted. I would, if you don't mind, like to examine them further.

The country problems which you note, Thailand as one example, are truely under seige. My gut feeling is that the problem stems, at least to some extent, from the strength of the US dollar and it's use as the world-wide trading vehicle. I don't want it to look like I'm visiting money 101, as I respect your opinions too much, however, do you see some of the problems in the far east ( Japan / Thailand etc. ) as it possibly being relying too much on the US dollar to recoup past loses and as it ( US$ ) becomes stronger, their own currencies become less valuable too the speculators who wish to see turmoil in order to make a profit and cause the downfalls?

In regards to the silver, I too have noted the degree of competition between Kodak and FUJI in the market place. We bought my daughter a roll of film the other day and for the same film, Kodak was twice the price of the FUJI. Unbelievable! My timeframe though was of quite a longer variety. I have agreed with Milhouse, and now you, that in the short term ( 1~2 years ) the public will benefit through lower prices, but that will eventually hit the Kodak stock price in a hurtful manner. I also feel though that Silver is at least mentally tied to Gold and as such, will range trade. That to me then becomes tradable the same as gold, within a band of 10~15% up then down then up etc. with me gaining the minimum of 5% per move just through precious metal mutual funds movement. There seems to just be soooo much of it available though to convince me of any shortages near term. ( That'a just a gut feeling! )

The blue chips indeed are exceedingly great risks and I heartily agree are no longer considered Low Risk. Even the venerable G.E., once the home for widows and orphans, has shown volatility beyond others. It is true there seem to be no longer any safe/secure/low risk areas available but how does one proceed? Volatility causes areas of profit. Until the volatility of the Gold area becomes apparent, I must play in other areas such as Technologies, and hope the roof doesn't collapse before I complete my profit goals. I have found that if I had been as wise with my Energy fund over the last months rather than thinking like a Gold-Bull, I would have increased my profits noteably. ( Please don't take this as siding with John, I'm not, but it is my reality, day to day, over the last months and as a professional, that external point of view is absolutely necessary ) . Your 320 price seems wise to me. Also wise to me is the current pricing of the metal mutual funds. They have reached marvellous prices and I have increased my holdings to 20% of resources. Normally, I would have thrown 80~100% of available monies, ( as I have explained before, I am willing to take the risks to get the larger profits and do not normally believe in diversification in mutual funds ) , but am awaiting confirmation of the 326 area. I thought we had it Friday/Monday but it was lost over over the last two days, so have lowered my exposure and am now into blue chip banks etc. Of course, I along with you hope for greater volatility in the metals since I can get such a larger bang per penny move at their presently lower levels than a higher bleu chip mutual fund after a 25% gain lately but there really is no other game if one is awaiting volatility and yet not wanting to gamble. Profits are profits.

Thank you for that information concerning ZINC. I hadn't been folowing it since those plays are mainly available to me only in equity stocks within the equity mutual funds ( those containing INCO etc. ) .

Oddly, 10~15% doesn't sound like much when one considers the potential that the DOW and NASDAQ have achieved. However, in golds present circumstance, that's a movement from 325 of from 276.25 to 373.75 ... I would think that that just about covers any movements expected from any contributor on this site. A low of 276 to a high of 375 would be extraordinary to everyone I'm sure, but from here right now, it's only 15% +- . That's not really enough volatility to make one rich especially with all the resistance that lies both above and below this 325 price zone and also in that I can't short mutual funds. I'm not disagreeing, just trying to look at it from a practical matter of investing for the biggest bang for my penny move. Thank you for the discussion. And thanks for the nice TTFN ending. Appreciated....


Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 20:27
vronsky Sovereignty and Money: Past, Present and Future>(Sovereignty and Money: Past, Present and Future):
Glyn Davies, Professor Emeritus of Economics, University of Wales, ( UK ) , paints fascinating chronicle of money’s evolution from Jesus to Dostoevsky. Engrossing read of a great scholar:

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 20:27
Pascal Bad Crowd>(Bad Crowd):
Whoever entered the following note deserves no respect from anyone.

The man is a _courier_! Six years out of med school, and he works as a courier! He lives in an apartment! He's a lunatic! I did not out you, my friend - you outed yourself, at 18:46!

Too many of the regulars on this site act like catty teenage girls. Also,
few of us care to hear inane comments about details of your mundane daily activities.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 20:19
nomercy US Dollar vs Yen>(US Dollar vs Yen):
Interesting article re: currency devaluations occurring in Asia, which augurs well for Gold
Economists and officials say the system of US dollar-dominated
exchange rates in the region may come to an end, and the process is
likely to be hastened with the freeing of Japan's foreign exchange
controls from next April.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 20:18
aurophile tedrake@>(tedrake@
Donald: A very correct and succinct definition which reminds me of economics in one lesson. Some proof that your guess on when credit inflation began is correct can be found in this graphic:
Prices at the producer level were in a large trading range after the subsidence of New World gold inflation in the 18th century UNTIL FDR hit the scene in 1933. Our current disinflation barely shows even as a pause in the relentless progress of this series.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 20:15
Donald @Home>(@Home):
PNEUMA-OOPS: I left out a key word. It should read Printing money will NOT prevent a deflation.

Sorry about that.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 20:08
Donald @Home>(@Home):
PNEUMA: There are two kinds of inflation. Monetary inflation, the printing of money and: credit inflation the creation of credit. The hyperinflations of Germany, Austria, Indonesia, Bolivia, Brazil, Argentina and more were caused primarily by printing excess paper money. The inflation that began in the U.S. in ( my opinion ) 1933 was a credit inflation. Deflation is an INVOLUNTARY phenomenon. It is caused by the destruction of credit, by bankruptcy, or the voluntary paydown of debt through fear of the borrower, or by reluctance of the lender to continue lending. Government can do little to force people to borrow or to lend. There is no way for government to stop it. Printing money will prevent a deflation.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 20:08
nomercy donald>(donald):
Lou Dobbs, on CNN Moneyline last night, had two guests, can't recall their names, I believe one was from Traveler's Mutual and the other a VP with ML. Dobbs ( the official Dow cheerleader ) asked the Traveler's exec. who felt that stocks are overvalued and that Greenspan erred now as he did a few months ago, when he raised rates. What do you reccommend now? Sell and take some profits; And if it goes higher? Sell some more. Lou's astonished reaction was indescribable! obviously it wasn't the answer he was seeking.
It looks to me that they are in no-win situation. Personally I believe that Greenspan wanted to nip it in the bud in December '96 and was overuled by Rubin & Co.
They are playing 'russian roulette' with millions of people lives as they are influenced by a few power brokers, who want the game to continue at the expense of the future.
The goldbugs have taken a beating recently, but we all know that a good gold play in a few months is worth the wait!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 20:02
disappointed reader don't@bother.replying>(don't@bother.replying):
This used to be an informative and worthwhile site.
If the level of conversation here generally reflects
the attitude and disposition of goldbugs, it's no wonder
gold is behaving as a poor investment. And, it doesn't
say much for Kitco to permit it to continue. It certainly
isn't positive advertisement to continue to permit individuals
like john ( hepcat ) to ruin the site.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:59

Trader-Analyst sees a rising tops pattern on the DOW - and believes there will be some intermittent corrections before reaching an ultimate DOW goal of 15,000:

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:52
Donald @Home>(@Home):
D.A. I remember that paper. I think it came out of the Minneapolis branch. ( 1988? )

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:48
If we consider that there appears to be a near non-existent monetary discipline in the West, is it still possible to experience deflation in the classical sense? We experienced stagflation during the Carter years, when there still remained a modicum of discipline. If we have completely unbridled monetary risk which creates cascading currency devaluations will the collapse of confidence exist simultaneously with deflation? I guess my question is centered on whether deflation is always demand and supply driven, or can it be altered by destroying the balance of equilibrium by hyper-inflating world currencies?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:46
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NOMERCY: Follow this consumer debt thread. I hear all the guys at work brag about how much they are making in stocks but I have no money to play. Someone suggests a homequity loan and I take the bait. I borrow the money and the bank packages the paper with others and sells it to FNMA, a taxpayer backed outfit. So now you have Nomercy, the taxpayer, stuck for the tab when this market crashes. When this thing un-winds it has got to end very badly.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:44
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NOMERCY: Follow this consumer debt thread. I hear all the guys at work brag about how much they are making in stocks but I have no money to play. Someone suggests a homequity loan and I take the bait. I borrow the money and the bank packages the paper with others and sells it to FNMA, a taxpayer backed outfit. So now you have Nomercy, the taxpayer, stuck for the tab when this market crashes. When this thing un-winds it has got to end very badly.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:44
Thanks D.A.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:39
JOHN MESSner ApartmentA>(ApartmentA):
I am such a wit and such a great trader and such a great prognosticator that I live in apartment A...not B but A...Har har har har har har

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:36
D.A. its.part.of.the.strategy>(its.part.of.the.strategy):

This statement is not surprising. I believe that the answer to many of the governments activities can be traced to a Fed research paper of a few years ago which made a big thing about inflationary expectations. The take home message was that if you could get people to 'believe' that there would be no future inflation then in fact there would be less. The idea being that inflationary actions such inventory building and wage settlements with built in inflation kickers would be discouraged and would feedback to lower inflation. It appears that the Fed has embraced this program even if it means flat our deceit like Mr. Greenspan has done. He knows damn well the price of gold has not been falling because of inflation or the purported lack there of.

I'm going to do a little searching over at the Fed's sight to see if I can dig up the paper. When I get a hold of it I will post it.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:36
Mike Sheller catchup ketchup>(catchup ketchup):
GENE: ( 14:41 ) You are correct - history WILL repeat itself. Alan Greenspan IS a brave man, and the dike IS ready to burst. Re Albert Camus - Sisyphus's stone is ready to roll back!!! FRONT: Stop being so heredical. ARCHIMEDES: You've got it screwed up. Very confuscing!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:33
nomercy Greenspan - Consumers Debt>(Greenspan - Consumers Debt):
Panda this one is for your don't worry be happy collection, ( people are using their homes for collateral ( stocks? ) ..he doesn't see a problem....
Greenspan: ``We nonetheless do see ... some fairly pronounced evidence of delinquencies showing up in credit cards. The new
phenomenon is the home equity loans which are increasingly being used as a consolidating consumer credit vehicle, and a lot of
this paper is fairly highly leveraged against the value of the home ... But what clearly is occurring is a general movement up in
certain selective areas of the consumer credit markets.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:31
Jack Larryn @ Schwab>(Larryn @ Schwab):

Larryn: ( 16:29 ) C. Schwab has a global branch that trade Canadian stocks, you can get most all Canadian stock quotes in each of the two $ terms. You have to call C.S. for the telephone number and hours of operation. Get other pertinate info from guy answering at global branch.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:25
D.A. burn.the.witch!>(burn.the.witch!):

Amazing what an 18 month bear market in gold will do to a fellows perceptions. A few points on the otherside.

1. Since governments have been failing at all sorts of things for as long as they have been in existence, why should they stop failing now? What about the government of Thailand which just a few weeks back announced that 'no way would they let the speculators force down the value of their currency'. Is the argument that the U.S. government has such power that it will win regardless of market forces? Why do they now possess such power when at other times in history, armed with the same power they were unable to do a damn thing? How about the government of Japan. Here was a government with sweeping power, control of gigantic amounts of pension money, in a society known for consensus, and it has taken them 8 years to turn the tide of damage caused by a speculative financial bubble. For those who were stock holders at the top, they are still a double away from breaking even. The financial asset bubble which we are currently enjoying will burst at some point. Just like every one which has ever occured. Why? Quite simply because the gross value represented by the share prices is far greater than the discounted value of the money that they could possibly throw off. One of two things will happen to correct this imbalance. Either the share prices will decline, or the prices of other assets in the society will rise to meet them. As for those who see owning stocks and playing the game as easy money, maybe they are correc, although I firmly believe the end will occur with devastating speed trapping many of those who 'know' what they are doing. This however has nothing to do with investing. Investing has to do with value and risk, and making bets which have potentially large payoffs with attendant low risk. There is nothing about the current equity environment that could be classified as 'low risk', and there are many individual equities of the 'blue-chip' variety that could be characterized as having 'enormous risk'.

The idea that silver is a dead commodity because of digital photography is just wrong. Demand for silver from the photographic industry is rising not falling. Kodak's problem has been a price war with Fuji and with cheap unbranded film. The volume of film sold, and hence the silver consumption is rising. For every American that chucks his 35mm camera in favor of a digital camera at $500 and a $1000 monitor that everyone can gather around at Christmas, there will be a hundred Asians who will be buying disposable cameras for $5 bucks. The great puzzle that people can not understand is how can silver stocks continue to decline while the price is going down. The reason is that the consumers who should notice this phenomenon and bid up the price of the remaining inventories are stupid. Yes, stupid, its that simple. I've brought this up before but I will do so again. In early 1994 zinc inventories reached something like 1.4 Million Tonnes. They declined by something on the order of 40% over the next two years due to rising demand. At the same time the price of zinc fell. Same story. The consumers were unwilling to bid for inventories even as they were falling. Finally when the inventories reached a low enough level, some funds ( Soros rumored ) stepped to the plate and bought. Zinc prices are now up 70% from the lows and the Chinese are rumored to be the squeezes. BTW: This is in dollar terms. In DM terms I believe the rise is now greater than 100%. But not to worry, there will never be inflation in Germany, because they like every other government will simply choose not to count the things that are going up in price.

I bought gold at $320 because I thought the risk was minimal. I still believe that to be the case. The only risk to gold falling more than say 10% from here is massive selling by G7 central banks. Oddly enough this just might be tremendously bullish as investors will reason that they can buy an asset at a firesale price. In any event, the political fallout behind liquidating gold reserves might be more than the governments are willing to risk given the fairly minimal value the sale would generate with respect to thier balance sheets. Absent this kind of selling, the downside risk is small. Everyday we go nowhere, the fundamentals get just a little bit better, as another mine is forced to close, and another forward hedge runs out. Time is on my side.

Finally, having been here at Kitco quite awhile, I am surprised that you can not see the change that has occured here with respect to the number of bulls and bears, and the legitimacy which has been bestowed to the bear case in general. To my eyes this is classic capitulation. The fundamentals over the last year have improved greatly by dint of a large price change, and yet at the point where logic would dictate that the bull case is much stronger, instead we see the bear case being embraced by more and more.

Mind you I am not complaining about the state of affairs in this or any other market. If markets behaved more rationally and governments stayed largely away from price setting mechanisms the efficient market crowd would be a lot closer to the mark. I hope that the current state of insanity remains with us for a very long time so that I may continue to extract a living from misconceptions of others.

As noted contributor has remarked TTFN.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:24
archimedes confucius>(confucius):
futures in WATER not GOLD

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:21
Front Skylark:>(Skylark:):

I'm afraid I'm not aware of the percentages as they were not given to me from my sources in Dubai and London. I was informed from the sources that China was the buyer however, ( I imagine, due to privacy of trading needs ) , the amounts of the sales were not given. The peoples in Dubai and London would be considered commercials with one having a seat in London.


Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:20
I'm so ashamed of myself, Cherokee, but_I_enjoy_this_group>(but_I_enjoy_this_group):
and, perhaps like you, I wish him no ill, but we must repel the intruder, mustn't we?

All you ever wanted to know about him, in his own words, no less ( articles 3,5,6,7, and 13 are perhaps the most humiliating to our fellow investor ) :

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:19
Addicted to Kitco>(to Kitco):
Machf15: You're welcome. BTW, I burnt some kerosene for the government for a while also. But my real love is big radials - from thrust you can trust to power by the hour. The rattlies reckon: Jets are for kids !!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:15
nomercy soros>(soros):
According to this self-made billionaire, markets exaggerate in both directions, bust or boom. And that's the territory we're in presently. The prevailing bias in gold is down as is the underlying trend is also down whilst the opposite occurs with the Dow, wherein the prevailing bias is up and the underlying trend is up...
When a trend is reinforced, it accelerates. The underlying trend becomes increasingly influenced by stock prices and the rise in stock prices becomes increasingly dependent on the prevailing bias, so both the underlying trend and the prevailing bias become increasingly vulnerable.
Is that why Soros is making his move? or is he?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:13
cherokee @more-info>(@more-info):
here is the cdc phone # 404-639-3311

i made my post AFTER hep-rat posted his address.

time to turn the burners on HIGH!

anytime anybody gets close to the truth, he begins
posturing the cdc as his armor. let's see how the
cdc likes him using their agency for making threats and
coercive statements with them ( cdc ) as his personal hit-men.

cherokee!; ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) don't-worry, be-happy! ( john-boy, now they know, and
it's time to pay the piper! ) too bad you did not use your own system,
unc is most unhappy. wait till they hear from ALL you FRIENDS.
how about it kitco-ites? spend a moment and send some e-mail
to show your support of the rat-man. unc awaits MORE complaints
from the apartment dweller.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:08
RJ, Addicted, Scotty, Jack, Donald and nomercy. I would like to commend you all for outstanding post. They were informative, honest, and useful. Most of all, they attacked no one for their differences in opinions.

Hepcat, great information. In between the personal attacks, it was something I can use to make an informed investment decision. How about trying a single post without using someones else opinion as leverage for your ( usually intellegent ) thoughts.

Cherokee, sorry, I have to give you a zero. I'm not personally attacking you, but your post had no useful information to help the investing-smartly challenged ( me ) make an informed decision. I have read your post in the past. They ,too, have been brilliant. I would like to see them again.

Thanks again for your honesty ( and respect )


Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 19:06
Ww @NE>(@NE):
The financial boat is so believed and loaded to one side that financial nirvana must be maintained on a daily basis or a few 100 bill go into gold and the Centrals can sell all they have to no avail. Remember keeping gold down means preventing investment demand into this small market from the endless buckets of paper that have been created over the last 20 years. Centrals have 300 billion, big deal, that is not even a threat if even one little thing goes wrong with the financial bubble. Further, most CBs arent selling only the Westies ( who have shot their wad ) who are under the US influence and conern over world reserve currency status. I disagree that the gold cooperation will continue as the financial euphoria has reached unsustainable levels which can only dissappoint. A couple a billionaires can take out US supplies/ do you really think other countries who resent US dominance will go along with this game forever. Any prick to the financial bubble and even a minute leakage of money to gold wil cause it to go skyward. Nomercy's analysis assumes 100 % forever cooperation and financial nirvana forever in a world where the rich/poor disparity is reaching historical highs and that there are no egos and all countries agree forever to western CB policy. GOOD LUCK DREAM ON! When US credit cards slow down less buying from China and Japan / WHY SHOULD THEY COOPERATE to maintain US reserve status? ANS THEY WONT!!!!

Next US recession which is obvious ( it will never be reported in the press ) and bye bye!!!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:59
nomercy Time to Buy gold>(Time to Buy gold):
Investor's Digest, respected Carlyle Dunbar, in the July 18th edition, reccommends purchasing gold and gold mining shares. It's starting to look like a blowoff time in the market. Leading stock groups are climbing like rockets. That's characteristic of the late stages of a bull market. The rate of gain gets steeper and steeper --and then the market stalls and spins out. So far, though, there is no indication the market rocket has burned all its fuel. But you get the feeling momentum rather than real propellant is carrying the price indexes higher. He goes on to quote, Dow Theory Letter, great analyst Richard Russell, saysing gold may be warning us of deflation......conclusion if world deflation is our future, Treasury bonds yielding the current over-seven per cent may well be the place to be; and if world deflation does occur, what industr will manage nicely in the situation? Gold mining.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:57
Yes I am. Have you gained 'g' tolerance the same way?


Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:56
Jack Macht15 - my two cents>(Macht15 - my two cents):

I believe the futures markets, are like the prize fights.
The boxer's are the users and suppliers. The newspapers
controlled by the governments are behind the promoters
( the commodity funds and others ) that fix the fights. The
boxers are getting damn mad and bitting each others ears.
BITING WILL STOP. In other words AU and AG will rise.
The hell with inflation/deflation -they are long term
smoke screens.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:53
Jack Macht15 - my two cents>(Macht15 - my two cents):

I believe the futures markets, are like the prize fights.
The boxer's are the users and suppliers. The newspapers controlled by the governments are behind the promoters ( the commodity funds and others ) that fix the fights. The boxers are getting damn mad and bitting each others ears. SIMPLY; WE HAVE TO LET THE BOXERS SET THE PRICE, AND EAR BITING WILL STOP. In other words AU and AG will rise. The hell with inflation/deflation -they are long term smoke screens.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:53
Scotty>( continue on buying the physical stuff:

For whatever reason, the demand for small lots ( less than 10 ) of gold and silver eagles has been high for the last few months. Dunno why that is. However, my fellow coin dealers cannot keep a supply of them in house. And it's getting tougher for them to find inventory to sell at a decent price. If an investor wants ( say ) 100 gold eagles, then they go for about 2-3% over spot.

A little known fact: coin and bullion dealers do not make their money by buying their inventory from a market source ( like Monex or Blanchard ) . There might only be a $5 profit on each coin sold that way. Where the money is made is when a customer walks in the door and sells their bullion coins. My policy is to offer the real-time spot price. So, if spot is $325, then I will give you $325 for a gold eagle. Only then can I create a decent market to sell the coins for 4% over spot.

Well, guess what? Those little old ladies and frantic yuppies are not walking into the coin and bullion dealers and selling their inventory. The last coin show I was at sold out of gold eagles in the first 2 hours ( mostly to other dealers ) . There simply was zero inventory for the remainder of the weekend. The vast majority of the gold and silver eagles sold this year came from new production. Ditto for last year, I believe.

One more thing that kills most single-coin eagle buyers -- sales tax. Add the dealer mark up of 3% to a 6% sales tax, and bullion has to make one heck of a move for the buyer to make a profit when he decides to sell at spot. And there are many dealers who will only buy bullion a couple points back of spot. Rough numbers tell me that bullion needs to make a 10% move just for the buyer to break even! ( and if you buy mail order, add 10 bucks shipping and insurance! )

So, buy the physical stuff because it's heavy, cool, and will pay the rent when everything goes south. Buy ( or put ) the stocks and options if you want to increase your net worth.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:52
cherokee @investigating-possibilities-and-their-consequences>(@investigating-possibilities-and-their-consequences):
to all friends of hep-rat------

here are some pertinentent links with which hep-rat
can be dealt with.

he is using the university of north carolinas' ( unc ) computer
system to do his dirty deeds.

please refer to the board of governors home page to make reports:

and the home page to find other sources to report him to:

what he is doing will not be tolerated by the university system.
they await all OTHER complaints!

cherokee!; ) rider-of-the-ether for the betterment of all!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:51
Courier That's all>(That's all):
The man is a _courier_! Six years out of med school, and he works as a courier! He lives in an apartment! He's a lunatic! I did not out you, my friend - you outed yourself, at 18:46!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:51
Skylark China>(China):
Front: Thank you for a well thought out presentation. I have a question on China. Do you know how much gold they have in reserves, how much was purchased this year or last by China, and the percentage of gold in their reserves.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:50
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
Obviously when I said that no-one would make money on a rally to 380 in Gold I meant none of the traders on the floor. I know that everyone in this Group would make money!

Also I am going ot be changing my E-Mail address from:>


I will still be monitoring both for a few more weeks before getting rid of

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:46

What's the one about rehab - the jogging one?
I keep telling them there to put in my best ( earliest ) columns, the one about the
220 pound stripper and the Heath candy bar contest, but I'll just have to post them
here if you want to read them.
Addict - It was a statement. There were four ( at least ) possibilities, yet Cherokee
knew. How? Not because he had access to any kind of posting information,
I'm not arguing that. And Cherokee never starts posts that way. It was like he
was taken aback a little bit, like it had to be reworked.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:45
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
Re: Yellowdog - 380 by end Sept. - I actually hope you are right! But if you are I can garentee that no-one ( Well except me hopefully ) will make money! All the traders on the floor are bearish. It's like $300 is a given and even then a rally will not come. The DOW looks sooo topy here and I feel that I can analysis it quite objectively. ( ie - Unlike some people I have not been predicting a crash everyday for the dow for the past 5 years ) . The CRB index looks like it has broken out to the upside today. Bonds also look toppy. It's a tough call on the out come here. Technically silver is so much more bearish then Gold yet it seems stuck in a trading range and has been creeping up. I would think that if Gold really is going down more then silver would be leading the way. Taking a guess here I think that if Gold and Silver haven't broken down in a meaningfull way within a week then it will be ( more ) safe to say the low is in. ie - IF they are going down it will happen sooner rather than later.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:39
Please forgive my son who spends so much time here. It is a game for him.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:38
Who Am I? Catch me if you can>(Catch me if you can):
I work as a courier, also part-time weekends in an antique shop. I am out of rehab now, but I still have a problem with impotence. On the inside, I am a real person with a deep longing for truth. And I have friends I do not even know yet.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:35
Scotty>('re not a turner and burner are you?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:32
Mach15......glad to jump in! I see two distinct levels to gold investing.

1. Futures, options and stocks. An investor can make money on these vehicles on the way up, or on the way down. The only thing that matters is momentum. An investor can go max risk and play hour-by-hour on the option market; or they can minimize the risk and go into a mutual fund. Of course, mutual funds do not make money for the investor is the prices go down. I see this first level as a medium to high risk income producing or wealth building entity.

2. Physical metal. The only way to make money buying gold coins is when the price goes up. And, since there is such a spread between buying and selling single coin lots, the small investor just can't get there from here. However, I believe I speak for most folks when I say that buying the physical stuff is good to put away for the day when everything has collapsed.

What am I doing? I've mentioned before that I jump into a gold mutual fund and wait for a 10% increase ( or more if the trend is that way ) . Then I jump out and collect 5% while waiting for the next time to jump in. This site and a couple others have helped me do pretty good with my timing. I have extensive experience as a gold trader ( tho I don't do it anymore ) and of all the markets, I know the gold and coin markets best. Of course, I'm now cooling my heels waiting for an up-tick just like everyone else around here. While prices are low, I buy more of my mutuals when I can, averaging the costs lower. Gold will be making a run within the next 6-12 months and my mutuals will run with it. Even if I churn the mutual once in 12 months, I'm still making 15% ( plus or minus a bit ) on my money over that 12 months. In anyone's book, that's the classic slow and steady wins the race scenario.

I am also buying American Eagles when I can. Why? For that day if ( not necessarily when ) the whole thing collapses and paper money won't work very well. I too get poo-poo'd by those that say owning gold is silly. I also have flood and earthquake insurance. I also catch a lot of crap for owning that as well. My in-laws recently got flooded out and lost everything. No insurance. What a mess.

And, on the odd chance I outlive any kind of financial collapse, I'll pass the gold coins to my son. Along with the property with flood and earthquake insurance.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:28
Jack Nomercy thanx>(Nomercy thanx):

I believe that posters should register as FT still is free. How long will it last - can't say. I've been using gold-eagle for about 4 months and FT was free then. They are really very good; except for the sponsering of that Prague Gold Event.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:26
Topcat @the lab>(@the lab):
John@hepcat. We love a good old fashioned catfight. How about you up
against Bobcat, winner takes all. And if there is a spillage, dont
worry, we will just stand back. Louie the Fly for ref. Come on hepcat
what do tou say?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:21
Donald @Home>(@Home):
PRIMO: I tend to agree with you but not yet ready to declare it. I am encouraged that the Dow/Gold ratio has ignored the last several new Dow highs. That tells me that the market now perceives gold to be a better deal than the Dow. That could change, let's hope it does not.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:21

Addict - Which is why I was so interested in Cherokee's statement
that I gave out my name and home address. Why did
he say it that way? That was the thing that stood out
glaringly in his post - The lead sentence and that part.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:20
nomercy Bill Buckler>(Bill Buckler):
if you ever needed confirmartion ( gold political ) , here's a quote attributed to Greenspan ( Reuter )
Greenspans said U.S. economic growth was slowing, inflation in 1997 was modest, and the falling gold price reflected a
lowering of inflation expectations, all of which meant a near term monetary policy tightening could be avoided.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:19
yellowdog @I'm ready>(@I'm ready):
I have been in this business for over 20 years, and I'm putting my money on the call side of the equation. I was waiting for 321-322 area but I don't think I'll wait any longer. 380 by end of Sept. ( sorry, John, I won't guarantee it )

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:17
Front I'm not a Gold-bug, I'm an investor ....>(I'm not a Gold-bug, I'm an investor ....):

As an Gold-bug this would be heredical .... From an investors view ....

I believe Gold has seen it's day and it's over.

One can make money in gold stocks though just riding the ups and downs of the prices. 5% here and there, 4 times a year, and you've got 20%. That's a decent return for a no-brainer routine. Want more? Play the technologies.

The new digital society has and will continue to grow because of it's ease of use to the general family. No-one wants to go back to the barter/trade gold for goods days again. The government wants ALL transactions to become digital ( bank cards that contain money ) so that they can wipe out the underground economy and collect All taxes due on any sale using the cards. ( ie. If I want to buy a used couch from you at a garage sale, the digital age ensures that the government will get the appropriate taxes as it could demand that the monies withdrawn from your account automatically have the sales tax deducted at source when you top up your card at the local branch ATM etc. It's already available in Canada! )

The society with the greatest to lose will not let Gold climb again. The rest of the world agrees, since they are co-conspirators to the necessitity of continuance down this path. Even the Japanese realise that it's impossible to change the course now. The king has clothes since everyone else is nude as well. There's no way around it without shooting your own foot routines.

Everytime the price of gold has gone up, it seems to hit the just dropped through resistance level. Each time it goes down, a new resistance level is created. Demand is the only thing that will break a resistance level. There is no demand as long as the stock/bond market does well and they will do well even when falling since there are so many dollars/yen/dm's etc. in the world , as well as multi Billion dollar mutual funds, that need the stocks/bonds to go higher that it will not be allowed to fail. IF it ever does fail, then whole countries will be wiped out, not just investors. The world will not allow the disease to spread beyond it's control. It will adjust the accounts somehow, in probably the same manner as it did with the Hunt brothers in silver. Big Brother will prevail because in our hearts, we want him to, since it would be too disruptive to our everyday lives to be otherwise. We are creatures of habit. Life is good, keep it that way.

From a gold-bugs point of view, the world is in turmoil. We see it as having debts that must be re-paid ( we were probably brought up as thinking that debts must be paid! ) . The present world order doesn't believe that line anymore. CaptKev from the privateer said it the other day. I've said it before as a joke to D.A. but it's becoming a trueism. The ( fill in your country name ) doesn't have a debt problem. The guy who lend us the money has the problem.

We laugh because we've been taught to pay back what we owe. If we don't accept that teaching, then the statement is correct and not funny, if you're the lender. The borrower says that you were just too greedy and who in their right mind would ever pay back to a greedy person. The poor will agree to screw the greedy rich every time. So what if you don't want to lend anymore money to me! If you want my business, you'll lend! Just ask any bankruptcy about the new credit cards they can get as soon as they're discharged!

The old morals re money have disappeared. Therefore, the old feelings of gold as necessary for stability are no longer needed, nor apparent, in our daily lives. Supply will be forthcoming to any buyer through the CB's. in order to keep the system afloat. If there's a constant supply available, the demand will not be there, as people hate to change their lives and also don't want to invest in something that pays nothing, it's price is very stable within 10%~15% either way, and you can get tomorrow just as easy as today. It's like air, it'll always be there until we no longer need it so why worry about it.

Now, Silver .... digital will wipe out most of the usage of silver in the photography business in the future. Proof? Why did Kodak lose money this quarter even though the price of Silver is at a lower price per ounce? Competition from FUJI alone? If it isn't an important factor, why has Kodak invested millions in their own digital cameras? Just for the hell of it? No, they see the future coming as well. The requirements for silver in photography will create an unneeded supply.

PLAT AND PAL: Now you're talking! At least until the electric car can run in the colder climates properly and they won't need whatevers in the mufflers for air polution of a normal car.

Other base metals ( copper etc. ) will be needed in some fashion. The degree of need will be constructed by fiber optic cable etc. No copper required there, so that demand will fade also. It's a constantly changing situation from old to new.

I see that as the problem with gold. It may be considered money by the less developed nations but not in the majority of the industrialised world. And that's where the money is right now ... for now. If that's right, why is China purchasing the gold? Becuase they're long term thinkers. In the long run, we will destroy our good way of life because of our present strengths. Others will become jealous unless we share our wealth and perhaps try to take it, and the power it represents, away from us. That's when a new world order will become apparent. When 6 Billion people wise up and say that they will not accept US dollars in payment anymore. That's when China will rise to world leadership. Perhaps though, the governments of the day will then say that once again, possession of gold is contrary to the public good ( we need all we can get to buy oil! ) and so that you will have to change it for paper. Ah well, easy come ....


I know this is rambling and heresy but still maybe .....

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:12
Checked out Yahoo and read that PGU has forward hedge contracts covering the rest of their gold production for 1997 at an avg price of $435/oz. To bad their stock doesn't reflect this.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:11
nomercy jack>(jack):
just in case, some were not registered users, or didn't want to bother to register here is F/T article
US interest rates: Greenspan warns on
inflation outlook


By Gerard Baker in Washington

Mr Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, sounded
another strong warning yesterday that the current benign combination of
robust growth and low inflation in the US economy was likely to prove
temporary. He said the Fed stood ready to raise interest rates at the first
sign of accelerating prices.

Presenting his semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins report to the US congress
on the state of the economy, Mr Greenspan said recent performance had
been exceptional. The current expansion was the third longest since
1945; yet, in contrast to the typical business cycle, measured inflation was
now lower than when the expansion began.

But the Fed's policymakers had been puzzled by the subdued nature of
inflation in spite of an unemployment rate currently near a 25-year low, he
said. With considerable momentum behind the expansion and labour
market utilisation rates unusually high, the Federal Reserve must be alert to
the possibility that additional action might be called for to forestall
excessive credit creation.

Financial markets reacted positively to Mr Greenspan's prepared remarks,
relieved that they did not contain any explicit reference to concerns about
stock prices. Shortly after he began speaking, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average jumped 85 points to 8054.

His presentation included the Fed's latest economic forecasts for this year
and next. It forecast overall growth this year to be 3-3.25 per cent, up
from last year's 2.4 per cent. But the rate of consumer price inflation is
now expected to be slower than expected. The consumer price index was
forecast to rise 2.25-2.5 per cent this year, compared with a projection of
2.75-3 per cent.

In March the Fed raised short-term interest rates by 0.25 points, the first
rise for two years, as output surged in the first quarter at an annual rate of
5.9 per cent. The growth rate slowed to about 2.5 per cent in the second
quarter, reducing inflationary pressures, but Mr Greenspan said this could
be reversed in the current quarter.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:10
Primo Gold Bottom>(Gold Bottom):
Gold has reached the bottom last week about $315 if I remember correctly because we have a very unique and significant spike up last week, Greenspan's report slowed it down but not really significant and gold held when DOW hit 8000. I go along with Big Trader- my interpretation of what he said is bull show is coming. IMHO it has started already. I waited for seven months and this may be IT!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:09
Addict ed to Kitco>(ed to Kitco):
Sorry, had to go buy some milk to feed one substance addiction ( caffeine ) . Yeah, enjoyed the Emoticon HoF. Thanks for the reply.
Sun Tzu: The clever combatant imposes his will upon the enemy, but does not allow the enemy's will to be imposed upon him. By holding out advantages to him, he can cause the enemy to approach of his own accord; or, by inflicting damage, he can make it impossible for the enemy to draw near

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:07
Donald @Home>(@Home):
GARY: Please conduct an experiment for me. The next time you see her ask her if she would rather own 1 share of each of the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones or 25 St. Gaudens $20 gold pieces. I am curious what the answer will be.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:03
nomercy Greenspan- >(Greenspan- ):
at 6000 it was 'irrational' at 8100+ not out of line ( give me a break ) where's is his creditability?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 18:02
Jack FT>(FT):

Hurry before they change to new edition. London Financial Times take on Greenspan's comments a bit different than US press and markets. Click on A.G's mug to get story.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 17:58
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MACHF15: Investing in gold from these levels is a no-brainer. Inflation or deflation does not matter. I am predicting deflation, followed by inflation in the following years. Just a guess but I would say 1 year of deflation, worldwide, to start.

If you own gold in an inflation you will at least keep even with the cost of living from this point. That was not true if you bought in 1980 but it is true now.

If you own gold in a deflation YOU WILL STAY AHEAD of the cost of living, EVEN THOUGH THE DOLLAR VALUE OF YOUR GOLD MAY DECLINE. Stocks, houses, buildings, everything else will drop in price faster than gold.

I think the trap in gold is the use of leverage. Until we are absolutely sure on the deflation-inflation question, leverage should be avoided. In a deflationary environment a person who is heavily in debt has in effect used margin to establish a position in gold. It is more important to be entirely debt free in a deflationary environment.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 17:56
nomercy Greenspan on budget policy->(Greenspan on budget policy-):
( it'll be somebodyelse's problem ) Greenspan: ``One thing, I think, everybody agrees on is that the shock to the fiscal structure as we move towards 2010

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 17:52
EB Ireallymustgetanewdictionary...>(Ireallymustgetanewdictionary...):
I can't find limicolous in mine...RJ please define...I am using a Webster's II? the book store

eb \;- )

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 17:51
nomercy Russia would increase its gold reserves. >(Russia would increase its gold reserves. ):

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 17:49
A friend recently asked me if now was a good time to buy gold. I asked her out of all the dollars invested in your portfolio how much gold do you already own. None, she replied. How many of your friends own gold I further asked. None she said. Would you buy stock in a company with a product nobody wanted to purchace I followed. Of course not she said.

And there was the answer for her. I purchace shares in companies that has a market and demand for a product I don't see this is the case for gold. I realize many of you will say that asia has a demand, but I will respond that the younger generation in that region is becoming more westernized, and there is greater demand for western name brands ( and stock in the same companies ) .

I will not deny that some day the goldbugs will ride the bull, but for now I'll stay short.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 17:48
nomercy Fed's Rivlin, Meyer don't focus much on gold price>(Fed's Rivlin, Meyer don't focus much on gold price):
Interesting question posed to Federal Reserve Vice Chair Alice Rivlin

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 17:44
Cherokee - My, we've been awfully busy today, haven't we?
And projected to be busier in the future, it seems. Cherokee,
I would think you would appoint yourself head of this committee,
and I will be happy to assist you in any way I can. Could you give
me your telephone number, name, E-mail address, prison ID,
name that's sewed onto your workshirts at the gast station, anything?
again ( I guess I misplaced these from the last time ) , so the CDC can contact you?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 17:44
nomercy down on technical reasons>(down on technical reasons):
Gold lower on technical weakness ( their tone is getting milder as to damage control

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 17:38

Paul - Well, then, that's your catalyst. I'm sorry to be so America-centric,
but I can't think that some 40-year-old squash-playing Bostonian is going
to get into gold because they are wild about it in India and China. America
moves the market, and American press fuels the market. I'll be happy
to be proven wrong.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 17:36
cherokee @problem-resolution>(@problem-resolution):
if you give a person enough rope, most will inevitably
hang themselves.

it appears that rat-cat has done just that.

if he does work for the cdc with a normal job ( days ) ,
then he must be using the govt's resources to harrass
people over the internet. if this is the case, what
would it take to resolve this problem? his correct
name and address, and an archive of the instances.
his arrogance has accomodated all of his kitco friends.
his recent post giving his real name and pertinent data
has opened the door for any one of his friends to inform the
cdc of his activities relative to his job. productivity
must be nil due to his constant posting. use of gov't equipment
to harrass anyone is unlawful. posting constantly through-out the
day instead of working, constitutes theft from the gov't and

surely there are quite a few in upper-management who would love
to be apprised of the situation. there is probably a web-site ( cdc )
where he could be outed, and helped on his merry way to earning
a real income from investing in what he professes to know volumes

what say you kitco-ites? let's open the door and shine the light on
the rat-cat, and see how long he is allowed to continue wasting
the govt's money. his e-mail address appears to be linked to some
type of entity other than a commercial enterprise ( isp )

he spreads good-will around kitco to any and all; let's
spread some around HIS cat-box, and see how the kitty-litter
smells when deposited where it originates.

cherokee!; ) the best defense, is a good offense. gen. george patton

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 17:34

Addict - Did you check out the emoticon Hall of Fame?
I'm kind of fresh out of predictions until after July 29. It really is
draining to make a prediction and then spend a lot of time
forcing the market to meet that prediction with brain waves,
implied threats, cajoling, pleas to a god of fairness, etc.
In fact, most of my time is spent imagining the abuse I will get
at this site the first time I am incorrect. Gold is going down, and I
like your commonsense approach of round numbers, but you
can tell I'm most confident about this when the drop is swift, when
the back of gold is broken $3 or more dollars in a day, and I hate it
when it tacks back and forth, like it's doing now. I am not losing
confidence, just tempering my comments to fit the audience. The
Art of War is a very good book, do you think so?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 17:30
Paul Friend of Earl's>(Friend of Earl's):
hey,hey,hep-cat.....don't disagree with a your analysis of when will gold turnaround
however you are referring to what I think is the speculative reason for getting into gold.
Methinks that there are many people ( Asian and others ) who will see gold as a necessity.
All it takes is for these forlorn people to decide to buy a gold coin or several silver coins
and gold will turn...

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 17:12

Mach - Happy to oblige. For gold to turn around, it would require
brainwashing of all people who invested in gold after 1980 and lost money.
It is not enough to be able to sell gold to people who already like gold,
you have to be able to sell gold to people who have no interest in gold.
And let me tell you, Mach, not just the word on the street but the word
from the street ( and I am definitely pounding the pavement every week )
is gold? Bleech. You can't do anything with it once you buy it. You
can't display it, you can't drop it into cocktail conversation and impress
friends with it, and worst of all, right now, you can't make any money from
all your pains of owning it, and there is a lot of ridicule and sniggling that
gets appended to your name when you are identified as a gold owner.
What causes the boom in any commodity? When the casual investor
or non-investor gets involved. When is that going to happen for gold?
Well, never, as long as this site propagates the perception of gold
owners as: 1. Camo-clad anti-govenrment gun-loving paranoid
doomsdayers and 2. Anti-government out-of-touch newsletter-writing
bitchy old guys. It is simply not cool to own gold right now, and you can discount
this all you want and say it is not important, but it is vitally important - Why is
the stock market doing so well, and why will the stock market continue to
do well? Because people are sheep, and right now they are very well fed
sheep. Why would they want to come over to something that has only
disappointed them in the past 17 years, and further, have to associate
with the breed of sheep currently holding gold?
Naturally, if there is a major world crisis, rampant inflation, blah, blah, blah...
Also, it's kind of paradoxic, but gold will rise when gold starts to rise -
when people get that feeling that someone else ( and stupider ) is making
money in gold that they are entitled to. And this will happen for any and no reason,
except that CNBC will be able to explain it weeks after the fact, incorrectly.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 17:12
Thanks for the honest opinion. I will put that in my brain ( along with hopefully other honest opinions ) and try to come up with my own strategy.


Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 17:11
RJ Machf15 @ 16:38>(Machf15 @ 16:38):
I must agree. While guilty of jumping into this particular fray in the past, I have come to the conclusion that the only way to deal with our limicolous members, is to not get in the mud with them.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 17:00
Addicted to Kitco>(to Kitco):
Machf15: BTW, if you are wondering about the rationale ( with an e ) behind my strategy, I borrowed it from John Maynard Keynes. Whether you agree or disagree with his economics, there is no doubt he was a gun speculator - he increased the endowment of Kings College, Cambridge, by a factor of ten !

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 16:54
Addict (ed to Kitco)>((ed to Kitco)):
Machf15: A very sensible suggestion. I will be shorting gold all the way to $300. Why, because I like round numbers, and I think a lot of other people do too. At that point, I will close out and be like Selby - long cash - until I decide what to do next.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 16:49
Commisar KGB Uder Guy to Old>(Uder Guy to Old):

KGB: Jesse to old for Siberia, ve need strong yung crazsy hep-kat typ foe xperiment. Besides ve kan't get CIA klearance. KGB never kid nap ole-guy. Good gob vit Karburator, ve mak you promotion and zend to new offvitz in Kalifornia.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 16:43
Addict (ed to Kitco, not substances)>((ed to Kitco, not substances)):
They probably won't talk to me now - I can't understand why :V:-|
But you didn't answer my last question - do you have any further gold price predictions forthcoming ?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 16:41
Here is my opinion. I think the economy is like a bb rolling down a razor blade. If it stays the way it is going, all will be fine. If we have to fast growth the bb will fall on the inflation side. If the ecomomy slows down it will fall on the recession side. Both ways the stock market will fall ( and hard ) . Can the ecomomy stay on this exact track of low inflation, low employment and record earnings. I don't think so. That is why I think gold is a good alternate.

There, that wasn't hard. No attacks, no counter attacks. Just my stinky opinion.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 16:38
D.A. coinage>(coinage):

Where do you get this info on the ole sack o coins. Sounds like a free call option. Can you shed some more light on the topic? TIA.

P.S. Off to hit some golf balls. Must tune up my game for a member guest. Too bad I have a legit handicap. I know I'm in for a serious sandbagging.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 16:38
I would like to make a suggestion that could get this message board back to its intended purpose. I would apprieciate hearing your best aurgument for and against investing in Gold now and in the future. So, Ted, George, Hepcat, Leaner, Notagoldbug, Miro, Disney, Mary-Rose, Jojo, and any others involved in this conflict - Just give us the facts as you see them. I think we are all intelligent enough to take from each what is important to help us evaluate this investment. No attacks, counter-attacks or rebuttals. Just the facts! It has been fun watching the conflict, but now is the time for a truce. I realize I am not a regular contributor and I don't have much experience with the metals. That is why I come here and read. What do y'all say? Don't respond, just do it. Thanks.

I'll get the ball rolling. Hepcat, in your opinion, what conditions do you think are needed to turn gold around? George, Ted, how about y'all. What event/events to you think could make Gold run up.

Just give me your opinion without attacking the others guys. After all, opinions are like assholes. We all have one and they all stink!


Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 16:36

Addict-C - Hey, thanks. It has always been my belief that there are a lot
of talented thinkers and writers lurking on this site. Please jump into
the fray more often. Don't worry about the crank phone calls and the
crackpot E-mails. About once a month the UNC biotech computer
support guy forwards the gems that he gets begging to have my
account terminated, and we have a good laugh. The letters are always
so earnest ( He is DESTROYING a wonderful site with his childish antics )
and the authors so off-center that he said it reminds him of the letters
his dad got while on the city council from people distraught over putting fluoride
in the water. Sorry, Hepcat haters, but you have to come up with a better reason ( and I would heartily recommend a better proofreading ) to have my account terminated than he is suck an asshole.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 16:34
EB bbfisher...What part of ol' Blighty?>(bbfisher...What part of ol' Blighty?):
Where ( about ) do you live? I have some good chappy-dude friends down in Surrey. Where we go to bet the ponies and get pissed-up...I miss those Sots. Jason ( one of them ) works in London and takes the train. Perhaps you have seen him. He is the one that places post-its on his forehead to tell the gracious folks near him to wake him from his drunken slumber at his final destination. It's all quite funny. You Chappy-boys are quite the jar-o-laughs...and thanks for all your posts.

away :-Q


Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 16:33
D.A. just.lovely>(just.lovely):

Nice prose, a real pleasure to read. Keep up the good work.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 16:29
Larryn Toronto exchange>(Toronto exchange):
For you traders who use the Toronto Stock Exchange. As a USA citizen, is there any problem with my buying stock on the TSE? I assume quotes are in Canadian dollars. Can I buy thru a USA broker, such as Schwab?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 16:26
Plaintalker @ home>(@ home):
From irrational exuberance to irresponsible reluctance.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 16:22
EB Got blown out and now saltcrusted...>(Got blown out and now saltcrusted...):
Let's ramble:
Piggy - Exit Gold - Buy Stocks w/w then act acordingly...
Gene@Reality - Printed it! I'm gonna look up that Camus dude...
2 ( formerly 2weeks? ) - Eight kids!? And time to ramble on midday...I am not worthy...anyway...jolly good ramblings...thanks...GIVE ME THE NUMBERS anyday...but I'll read the book.
Cupid - THAT was FUNNY...JohnH, ya' must admit, that was good stuff...
Addict-C - Feathers are flying...Peoples best work...Yes...
KGB - Let's get ready to RUUUUUUMBLE!
J. Disney - Rj tried that with the hep-rat-cat didn't suit him well either...but you are groovy, BABY...YEEEEEAAAA! ( Mike Myers, international spy )
RJ - Party at my place, I invited the Roooskies. BYOPL.


Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 16:02
2 Now that's a thought>(Now that's a thought):
BB - privately issued, gold-backed, digital currency? And thus, privatize the world economic system? I like it. Get the revolution started!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 16:01
KJB Going Up?>(Going Up?):
Just heard an interview on CNBC with Steve? of Goldman Sacks. He thinks metals prices now have the best chance for rising than anytime in the last three years. He didn't really explain why but I think it has to do with improvements in the European economy.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 16:00
KGB @ in hiding>(@ in hiding):
Comisar KGB: Ven in N.C. is ok pick up Jesse Helms to take Siberia?
Vhy mak zecund trip? Avait orders.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 15:58
Granny Sitting on the porch>(Sitting on the porch):
We have no mountains here. So I just enjoy Schippi's graph when I feel the need to see some glorious peaks.

Tough day, boys. But we'll be back tomorrow, won't we?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 15:54
bb fisher follow this link>(follow this link):
this story is the most important one in todays news.

the dam is cracking and once robust encryption is incorporated into bowsers and transactions on the net reflect this fact it is only a matter of time before digital money NOT issued by governments comes into reality in direct competition with dollars, marks, pounds- pick a flavor.
when that happens all economic behavior will become voluntary. comprende!

this will happen much sooner than anyones relaizes! and with its emergence we will see new and more exciting forms of democracy al over the world. not the rah rah PC democracy that is pushed out by the politicians and the media.
wanna bet some of the private digital issuers will have gold backed money if only as way of attracting new customers?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 15:53
2 with some early 1940s books Comin back at ya good buddy>(Comin back at ya good buddy):
Is it just me, or do stocks seem to be weathering bullion's troubles fairly well today?

Sorokin is a new rock on my personal philosohical sojourn, but here goes:

Ptirim A. Sorokin author.

Books: The Crisis of Our Age ( ~1941 ) and Man and Society in Calamity ( ~1942 )

Excerpts from The Crisis of Our Age at

Biography of Sorokin at

For the record: The directions of society and culture are causally related, bidirectionally, to the ascribed value of precious metals. The interests of PM analysts often extend into such realms. As such, this poster humbly deems this matter relevant to the purpose of this forum, and remains of course completely and thoroughly receptive to any and all civilly offered assertions to the contrary.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 15:42
Donald @Home>(@Home):
All the bookcases of the world are now obsolete. Why? Ok, I'll tell you why. Because I just looked at the EBN stock list. All the future books on economic history will have to be SEVERAL INCHES TALLER to accomodate the new stock charts.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 15:35
deutschemarkdirk dollarbill>(dollarbill):
I vant mein geld!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 15:34
bb fisher rah rah>(rah rah):
platinum to gold= better than 1 to 1
rhodium to gold= 1 to 1
palladium to gold= 1 to 1...well not yet but GO palladium
silver to gold= well 1 to 1 will take a few more years
dirt to gold= hey hepcat... all much longer before we get parity

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 15:30
Commisar KGB Now KGB has schane to do Servitz>(Now KGB has schane to do Servitz):

Ve send best Doctor Agent ( for crazsy people ) Vldamir Igoraski to help crazsy hep-kat guy in Durham N.C.
Ve mak klearing vit CIA to fly MIG Ambulanze von Durham N.C. to the General Nut House Siberia. RJ, you not to vorry only platinum on MIG is in eLekronik Geer. Karburator now at Truk stop in Albania. You think Hep-kat crazsy, kome to Tirana, then you zee crazsy.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 15:27
Donald @Home>(@Home):
2: Are you going to tell us the name of the book?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 15:23
Skylark I Apparently Got the Wrong Forum>(I Apparently Got the Wrong Forum):
Excuse me, I apologize, I apparently got the wrong forum. I thought this site was for Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 15:20
2 You Gene>(You Gene):
Very nice post. Where'd you come from?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 15:18
Addict-C @fancy>(@fancy):
DJ, Mother and others: Methinks thou doth protest too much. Don't you realize John is the best thing that has happened to Kitco 1 ? I suspect there are lots of lurkers out here who, like me, tune in regularly to check on the latest action between John and his opponents. Before, Kitco was dominated by a few old goldbugs, nodding off in their comfy chairs while pontificating about the eventual renaissance in gold, while gold itself drifted ever lower. Then along came Johnny, like a wolf among the chickens, and sent the feathers flying ! Now Johnny has certainly sorted the sheep from the goats here. The best of the old guard, those who are capable of matching wits with the hepcat, have been provoked, prodded and challenged into producing some of their best ever work. The others, unfortunately, have resorted to banalities ( which hepcat himself is not averse to using, I might add ) . I am sad to have to include John Disney among the latter group - JD, your last posts to hepcat were unworthy of your talents. DJ, if people cannot help themselves from responding to John, that is their problem, not his. And you are correct; the proposed squelch button is much more likely to be used to turn off Vronsky's billboards than hepcat's provocations. And what ever happened to free speech in the land of the free ?
John, my hat's off to you - I don't know how you find the time and energy to keep up the barrage. But tell me, are you simply a one-hit wonder with 3-2-5, or do you have further predictions in store ?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 15:14
2 Rambling commentary on a slow day>(Rambling commentary on a slow day):
Interesting article in WSJ about currency devaluation in SE Asia. The dollar is the rock of international currency, apparently. It is curious that currency, recursively, defines its own value. Nothing beneath it other than an ( allegedly ) healthy world economy. Noone can deny that the world dropped the gold standard and ( so far ) has survived the decision. If the US sold its gold, would that destabilize the dollar? Who knows?

And _when_ are we going to start referring to web sites without that http://www. in front? Where I live, a local call is 10 digits long - 11 if you are exiting a business phone system. I have 4 email addresses - actually, an infinite number if you count the fact will get to me. Why do I have my own domain name? Well, it only costs $50 per year, plus whatever the web hosting charge is.

Certainly the discussion group format of Kitco is a major winner. Why is this group so much fun? An unwritten law that in some way every post should constitute a contribution to the general well-being of the participants ( this post may not qualify, sorry, but it has been a slow day ) , perhaps? A light sprinkling of lean & clean humor and irreverence, on a base of solemn acceptance of the greater principles of finance and human relationship? Three sentences in a row without a real verb? Who knows?

Let's talk about movies. Took all my kids to see The Lost World - not a classic, but good clean fun, no kissing and no cussin ( well very little, anyway ) . Also, the gore scenes are tastefully understated, in general. Another nice family movie - Rent a Kid. Highly recommended. Again, no Oscars here. I have eight children ( ages 17,15,13,...2 ) and one due in November. Hey, nothin says lovin like somethin from the oven, right? How many you got? Two are headed for Chihuahua Mexico tomorrow on a mission trip. Bram, age two. Know anyone named Bram? How about Tessa? Odd names. Beautiful children. Marvelous creatures.

And how come Tortfeasor is so funny, but every time anyone else tries to post a joke it turns out to be so lame? And why is Cherokee so interesting and mysterious, even though he never says anything? And what makes Eldorado seem so wise and serene? And why do I read all those gold analyst ramblings and enjoy them, even though their predictive abilities are ( seemingly ) nil? I was just recommended a book about the coming world financial disaster - the book was written in 1941!! This guy has not been vindicated in 56 years! Nearly all his intended audience is dead, and here some Ph.D in history is saying, Read this guy, it's great stuff.

You see, analysis is not about being right in the short term. It's about getting ahold of those deep ocean currents, currents out of the view of the common man, that may not hit the shore in his lifetime. But which will alter the paths of mankind.

And when you're plumbing the depths of your soul and the depths of society to get to those currents, you may look pretty stupid.

John Lennon talked about the fool on the hill.

If I walk into the casino and pick three numbers in a row at the roulette wheel, people will grant me credibility. These people call the psychic hotline. This is insanity. These people pay money to organizations that provide hot lottery numbers. This is crazy. Why are people crazy?

Is it crazy to invest in precious metals? How about precious metals stocks? My brother, MBA Wharton, fell off his chair onto Wall Street laughing. What? You invested in Canadian mining stocks! Hey, I thought maybe George Domolky know what he was doing. Everybody on Wall Street knows the Dow is worth at least 6700. So he says, 2, I'm working on a $4 billion deal. That $40 mil for my company. I say, I hope he pulls it off.

So what do you want? Three numbers in a row, or a book that's wrong 56 years straight?

I'll take the book.

Go gold.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 14:51

Or, to save you the trouble:

John Meissner
4310 American Drive, Apt. A
Durham, NC 27705

phone number: 919-382-7423

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 14:41
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
There are so many large cracks in the world's financial system that Greenspan didn't dare give a negative report. He stressed that he would provide the cement of liquidity to attempt to patch those cracks. Can today be similar to Italy of the late 15th century? There was great prosperity in Florence and money was pouring into the strongest financial institutions in the world. Florence would prosper forever. --history intervened and catastrophe ensued. Today's history rhymes with most other times in history when a period of great affluence that seemed that it would go on forever all too quickly turned to economic and human catastrophe. The inflation is similar, real estate prices are similar, wealth distribution is similar demographics are similar, the escalation of crime is similar but far less--at least we haven't taken to eating the dead. All we need is a plague or do we have one already. History doesn't necessarily repeat itself but it certainly can. Maybe Alan Greenspan is a very brave man; maybe the dike is ready to burst and only Alan stands alone plugging the dike with his thumb.

Symbols and Signs

The society of merchants can be defined as a society in which things disappear in favor of signs. When a ruling class measures its fortunes, not by the acre of land or the ingot of gold, but by the number of figures corresponding ideally to a certain number of exchange operations, it thereby condemns itself to setting a certain kind of humbug at the center of its experience and its universe. A society founded on signs is, in its essence, an artificial society in which man's carnal truth is handled as something artificial.
Albert Camus ( 1913-60 ) , French-Algerian philosopher, author. Lecture, Dec. 1957, University of Uppsala, Sweden ( published as Create Dangerously, in Resistance, Rebellion and Death, 1961 ) .

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 14:36
DJ P.S.>(P.S.):
Bart - The squelch function won't help, as it seems people can't keep from repsonding to his nonsense.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 14:32
DJ Desparate>(Desparate):
Bart, Bart - Pleeeese stop this hepcat. He is singlehandedly destoying this forum, and I'm sure he is quite proud of it.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 14:21
Mother hepcat>(hepcat):
Child, you are in a state of delirious delusion and allucinating again. Poor child, its all my fault, perhaps they were my Walter Mitty's stories, you're favourite hero. And your Kitco family ( ? ) think you are a government spy! when in fact you are just plain Johny Loser, a lonely, misunderstood, child!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 14:07
Of course this is a purely hypothetical excersize in Web Surfing. I do
NOT recommend that anybody would try something like this. It is UNETHICAL
and it is WRONG and you mite get SUED!!!

BUT if someone was bothered by a shittykitty who was always pawwing in his
own excrument and slinging it around AT EVERYONE IN SITE one response
would be to FINGER said SMELLYCAT at
where hostname might be
and username might be shittykitty
( so you would type in )

Then with shittykittys real name in hand, a wrongdoer MIGHT go to SMELLYCATS
departments page at and send email to everybody on
the list warning him that he was working with a CRAZYCAT and that his life and the
lives of his coleagues and friends might very
well be in danger from this sciopath. This wrongdoer would include choice specemens of LOONEYCATS
Kitco rants, along with Kitcos address
bin/comments/gold/display_short.cgi? so that the endangered coleague might verify for
hisself that he was working with a CUNANAN type FRUITCAKECAT. Other KEY INDIVIDUALS at
simular biodepartments throughout the land could be notified as well to be on the look
out for a freeking unemploiable failed acadumbic research assistunt RATCAT lunatic which was
looking for a position and more victims ( wrongdoer would supply institution with DINGYCATS writing
samples and scratches. ) If I was a WACKYCAT I'd sure think it sucked to be me then, cuz I
wouldnt want any body in cell biology to know how truely LOONEY and dangerus I really wuz!

All email notices to these professers could then be followedup by anonomus snailmail letters to make shure they
reach the intended addressee person. The wrongdoer would make dubbuly shure they was
anonomus because you dont want to get on the wrong side of a

Finnally some one could go to and look up SNIVELINGCATS
personell address and telephon number so that he could discorse with said
selfesteem and his turdsniffing fetishes at all hours of the day and nite. And to top it off a REALLY
MEAN person would be TOTALLY WRONG to send anonomous notices and proof of lunacy to
every address at say 43xx USA Rd warning his nayburs that they have a
GICALLYINGWENIEWACKINGCREEP living next door. And to keep their children and pets

Of course It would be a Bad Thing if that happened, which is
why nobody from Kitco has done so already. IT WOULD BE WRONG
But I really can't say that with authority, can I? How am I to know for sure if one of us is not doing
this right now? I guess I'll just have to take a leep of faith on this one. IT WOULD BE WRONG.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 13:58
Donald @Home>(@Home):
STEVE-PERTH: That story about zinc prices clearly points out the difference between a Communist centrally planned system and a free market. When a state owned manufacturer buys zinc from a state owned mine it can get it at any price it wants. And you can set any politically acceptable price you want for your finished products. If you want to be a full participant in an open world economy then you have to learn and abide by the rules of the group ( lesson for Kitcoites here ) . However, I have to throw a spear at all so-called capitalists, all over the globe. They talk a lot about free markets, but for the other industries. There is always something special about their own industry that deserves a special quota, tariff or subsidy of some sort. This is not just a Chinese disease.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 13:55
What won't go up will go down. It looks like we are going to test to find what the next trading range will be. I hope it turns out to be about $15.00 wide. That would be enough to let us make some $$$$$$...

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 13:55

Hey Mom ( this is so eerie ) - Why is it that us Loser's are so good at
winning bets and so lousy at collecting on them? Remember when
you used to come into my room at night crying because you were so
morbidly obese and everyone called you the biggest Loser of all in the
Kitco family, how you were a man pretending to be a woman which made
you subject to even more jibes? Well, Mom, I'm behind you ( although
not directly, cause you sometimes don't wash well in between folds of
skin, plus there is the constant worry about having you topple over on me ) .
I don't mind that your posts are even more far afield than mine are, in fact,
why don't you tell that one story about the time you kept blaming a certain
bodily function on the dog? What a hoot. You are such a Loser, Mom, we
both are such Losers. I'm at least happy that I can pay for the crane to move
you from room to room with all my Loser money from not listening to the
Whiner, sorry, the Winner family you were born into.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 13:52
leaner john@clingon>(john@clingon):
Put a cork in it!! This John critter is probably a paid dole to the establishment that wants the true heros of the gold war to succumb
to his demented way of thinking. His mission is to break us down and
divide us in frustration and it working for atleast some. His glory is only short lived and as such his or its days of numbered..Have they issued you a shoe phone yet, microbe!!

**Intelligent conversation from many participants on Kitco is invaluable, don't let John the PC doctor ruin a good thing! I can see it now at control central Agent John Lickmeboots. Number 1 has got to be
someone at the Fed, he or it can't be for real!!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 13:44
Newoldperson onthesidelines>(onthesidelines):
EB: Well said! How old is greenspan......?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 13:43
Need HELP too long on gold and too short on stocks. Any advice
would be appreciated. Also, any recommendations on a good FUNNY FARM?
I think I am ready to get butchered and turned into sausage.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 13:33
Mother hepcat>(hepcat):
I'm not claiming that I am
going to win Johny Loser
That's telling them like it is, child! you're not going to quit and go away, so that they can continue their loquacious conversation.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 13:13

Symbol - Fair enough, but I must respond to one misrepresentation.
I am not thin-skinned. Have you read Call of the Wild? As I remember it,
there is one chapter about the Rules of Club and Fang, or something like
that, where Buck ( the converted sled dog ) learns that he has to kill or be
killed, that different rules apply up in the Yukon. If I was thin-skinned,
I would have left the site a long time ago. I am quite thick skinned, and
operate ( and I know you're getting tired of reading this, but people still
haven't gotten the message ) under one rule: No one attacks me with
impunity. It's that simple. If you don't dish it out to me, then you won't
get it back in kind ( and probably four-fold ) . I'm not claiming that I am
going to win, or that I am even going to be effective, but you can be
sure I am going to try.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 13:01
symbol not addressed to Johhny - but about him>(not addressed to Johhny - but about him):
I have been lurking here for ever ( it seems ) . Johnny's appearance has been a real problem. Please, please do not respond to him in kind. This merely aggravates the problem! IMHO he is very intelligent, and does know his stuff. He has his own investing opinions, and his recent track record has been very good. His only problem ( and no - I do not think he is medically ill! ) is that he is ( probably ) young, definitely arrogant, thin-skinned, and has a talent for rudeness. He has yet to learn that to get people to listen to his opinions, he *must* be level headed, and refrain from impoliteness. As he grows older, he will ( hopefully ) learn this lesson, and the immense value of politeness, sang froid, calmness, and humility. ( If not, I predict a short and incredibly unsatisfying life for him. ) Either way, whether I am right or wrong, it does not help to do anything but read ( and *not* respond to ) his posts until he begins to show civilized verbal behaviour. This is my first post, and may be my last for quite a while. *** back to lurking ***

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 12:57
EB Don't GO Miro!...I love you too man!>(Don't GO Miro!...I love you too man!):
Please stay! Pretty please! See, you can yuck it up too. Doooooon't gooooooooooooo!

now, I promise, I'm going...


Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 12:50
EB what I meant was...>(what I meant was...):

) :-Q-... gotta match?


Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 12:44
EB Technology keep up...>(Technology keep up...):
Thank you for the URL. Although I still prefer the touchy feely of a BIG Webster's...I must go buy the updated version...away :- ) ) ) )


Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 12:44
EB Technology keep up...>(Technology keep up...):
Thank you for the URL. Although I still prefer the touchy feely of a BIG Webster's...I must go buy the updated version...away


Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 12:38
EB with all due respect to EVERYONE...>(with all due respect to EVERYONE...):
Who gives a rat's ass ( other than the knee-jerk Yahoos ) what Allan Greenspan says or does not say! It is a shame that ONE man holds this power like AG. I feel sorry for this man. He has an incredible burden to try to fix what ALL have started? How can this be Refer to VIESERRE 22:14 a few days back. There are trees, get yer heads OUT of the oragamies! God, I want to scream! Instead I think I'll go check the waves. That seems to have a calming effect on me...breath deep eric, breath deep...

DOW - 9,000, 10,000, 15,000? BFD! the trees...eric...the trees...I.R.A.'s eric that's IT...LONG term eric Long term ( retirement ) ...

Now surf or fight? The choice is easy...breath...relax...



Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 12:38

EB - Thank you quite a lot. Emoticons are the sideways smiley faces or
frowny faces used to express emotions. If you go to Dave Barry's web
page ( ) , you will see more elaborate examples, although some are a bit lame.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 12:37
Mother hepcat>(hepcat):
Johny Loser, you are making me proud child! here you are willing to help everybody make money, and look at the lack of respect. They just dont get it do they? Johny, you're going to prove to them, what you have proven all your life! that no matter what, whom or why, you are going to stand up and show them, what a LOSER is and a what LOSER will be. That's right child, you're showing your true colors and make me so proud, as only your mother could be!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 12:36
Steve - Perth>(
All: Will be going bush until weekend, then busy all weekend at the WA Liberal Party State Conference at major hotel in Perth ( on beach ) . Will look back in next Sunday nite. Hopefully the idiot from the Medical Centre is back earning a real crust, instead of adding to the US national debt by wasting tax payers money. Miro is right. One thought. Maybe hepcat is a plant that is purposely trying to destroy a very interesting chatline. Competition maybe? Just an interesting twist.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 12:29
Steve - Perth>(
DONALD: Any comments on Chinese concern over Zinc plays by Westerners?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 12:28
Miro I have enough of this nonsense>(I have enough of this nonsense):
I have enough! This skipping through Hepcat vers. Kitco discussion
turned this forum into waste of time. Here is today's statistic:

from 8 am through 12:05 pm there were 53 posts, including:

9 posts from John Hepcat ( 17% )
10 post from other people addressing John's posts ( 19% )
that means 19 posts or 36% is just John against the rest bickering.
This is waste of my time.

John, as I understand you are employed by the US government. Not only I
have to waste my time and keystrokes avoiding this discussion but I have
to pay for it with my tax $. That’s more that I am willing to bear with -
and your management should take a note of it!

Enough is enough, I may be back when this nonsense is over!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 12:15
John Disney>(
for Hepcat
Gee thanks John - are the mean old Kitco wegulars bullying the
wittle booby wooby boy - dont cwy wittle johnny. Dont cwy.
You mean they dont see are SMART and well cweedentialed wittle
johnny isth. Oh wats. And how he guessed 325 and wath wight - mean
old kitco wegularth.
By the way John, there's a gorilla named Max down here who's
anxious to meet you.
Keep up the good work You make me feel so GOOD about myself.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 12:13
Is the basic investment law of the 1990s -- it is never too late to buy stocks or sell gold -- about to be repealed?

On the matter of annoying posts and posters -- SILENCE IS GOLDEN.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 12:05
Steve - Perth>(
The mystery ( non-existent ) housing boom? in Australia. A very good in-depth article. Worth thinking about.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 12:05
EB one more thing...I gotta do harm no foul...right Eldo?>(one more thing...I gotta do harm no foul...right Eldo?):
Eldoraado @ the front - Careful about the resistance and the support at the various cross levels of downtrend runn ing trough the uptrend coming across the moving average into the bucket...or out of the bucket... or what is it? If it won't break north, then it will break south, folks, This could go either way right now.

this is all meant in fun...kind of as a mystery writer for Eldo while he is...


Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 12:00
Steve - Perth>(
What AG actually said...

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 11:57 Sobriquets...John hep-rat-cat...Emoticons...?>(Sobriquets...John hep-rat-cat...Emoticons...?):
John - I for one read and relish all your posts ( and Mike Shellers-Giant Among Men ) . There are many others ( posters ) that I apply my speedreading technique to. However, your posts are quite funny AND informative. I'm still cracking up over that low level burrito residue wafting your way. I can't stop the tears. You have a fantastic vocabulary ( you have that HUGE websters don't ya'? ) and command of the English language. The analogies you use are some for the books. I appreciate and look for those qualities in people. It shows there exists intelligence in a way that I can relate. Thanks Dude. ( from the bottom of my old surf doggin' heart ) . Man, but ya' gotta hear the other side. They just want to have fun like you but they want to keep within some social boundries. I have seen you yuck it up hear w/o using any bile ( for lack of a better and more heplike word ) and I crack-up, as sure as others do. So let's ALL make up and play and make fun and talk about stuff and not be so serious and take a punch once in a while and love our fellow man and kiss your husband/wife everyday and tell someone that you LOVE them...blah,blah,blah,etc.,etc.,etc...Sirocco, I love you maaaaannn! Even you Eldorado! I hope you get back soon!!

I'm outta here! I'm setting myself up for a group-ass-kicking, so I have but one thing to say...kick



jh-i looked in several dictonaries for emoticon but could not find it. was it a typo? am i just dumb? Define? thanks in advance...gotta go...EBN up $25.00...NOT!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 11:46
Steve - Perth>(
China - Growth but many lost jobs causes unrest

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 11:38

MaryMary - Would impersonating a woman be grounds for involuntary
commitment? If so, please tell me what country you live in and I will be
happy to provide the other signature.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 11:35
Steve - Perth>(
El Nino update from Australia

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 11:34

JoJo - To the extent that it keeps newcomers here from falling under the
sway of people who chased gold all the way down from $415 to $315 and
still won't admit that wasn't a very smart idea, I am absolutely adoring it.
Also, people are fascinated by car wrecks, and I don't feel I've done my
job if I can't cause at least one major pile-up a week. You can shake your
finger at me all you want, but the SI gold discussion group traffic is way down
since I left and the posts are rather anemic. People have to be challenged
to produce their best work, and I think you'll be surpised when I leave how
someone will step in to fill my role, or the Kitco regulars will bully
someone else into becoming an antagonist. Otherwise we have TED
the human ticker tape giving us hourly updates on gold and George telling
us that the base is still forming on into the next millenium.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 11:31
Mary-Rose @DSM!V>(@DSM!V):
You are not the only one versed in psychiatry, Hepcat. Inthe country I live and practice in only 2 signatures are required to have a patient involuntarily admitted to a locked psychiatric ward and mine is one! Watch yourself small fry!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 11:30
Steve - Perth>(
DONALD: Move over Johnie Howard, here come's Hanson ( Pauline ) .
What is happening in Australia is certainly a depression based activity. However, it cannot be successfully overturned. Despite the torrents of media spin against her, she keeps on keeping on. Much to the chagrine of some in the Australian community. She is pushing the Liberal Party ( Conservative ) more to the right, while pushing for job creation.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 11:21

Jerry - Why must you try to pigeonhole me? I am not a fanatic about anyhing
except the truth. I am happy that my stocks are performing well right now, but
they are an investment vehicle, not a crusade. Beanie Babies have outperformed
the stock market here in the U.S. over the last three months, Jerry. Beanie babies are something worthy of disdain currently, not the stock market. It's
only your money not to make more of, Jerry. I will be pro-gold when the time

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 11:20
Steve - Perth>(
Why watch Nightly Business Review when you can READ it! ( Screened in Australia at Noon WST on SBS Public TV.
Market Analyst Abby Cohen On Dow 8000

PAUL KANGAS: Joining me now to talk about this booming market is Abby Cohen, co-chair of the investment policy committee of Goldman Sachs who's in our New York bureau and welcome back Abby.

Thank you Paul.

KANGAS: Abby, you have been one of the most outspoken of all the bullish analysts on the street since really 1990, 1991 and I know it's a delight to see all those predictions of yours coming true. But is the run away nature of for instance the rally we saw today of some concern to you?

COHEN: I don't think it makes sense to expect this sort of performance on a daily basis, Paul. But as you know, we always focus on a multi-month, if not a multi-year perspective and as we look at this economy, with low inflation, durable profits and we think a recession's still very far off into the future, we're optimistic that stock prices can rise further. It may not happen right away. It may not happen in a straight line, but we don't think this bull market is over.

KANGAS: Right, well you just recently as late June actually, increased your targets for the Standard & Poor's 500 and Dow. Are you going to increase them again after seeing this type of action?

COHEN: What we always do, Paul, is try to focus on the real fundamentals, profits, inflation and so on and what we are advising our clients to do, that is asset allocation. The price targets for us are a secondary or a tertiary sort of exercise. The next time we have a big chunk of fundamental news, probably after the end of this quarterly reporting period, we will review those price targets.
But it's not something we do on a day to day basis.

KANGAS: All right. Understood. In late June, your recommended allocations were 60 percent stocks, 25 percent bonds, 10 percent cash, 5 percent commodities. Any change?

COHEN: There have been no changes since then.

KANGAS: So you're going to stay with that particular allocation percentage?

COHEN: That's right and what we're trying to do is keep the same time horizon as our clients which tends to be measured in months and quarters, not days and weeks.

KANGAS: Are there any special groups that you feel are vulnerable and on the other hand, need to do some buying in?

COHEN: I think there are still some wonderful opportunities in 2 groups we've been talking about before. Technology and financial services, truly growth areas in this economy. Companies in that sector are doing better than the economy and therefore their stocks should be doing better than
the market.

KANGAS: Can we get specific there?

COHEN: Absolutely. Names like Citicorp ( NYSE:CCI ) , global leader. In technology, any number of names. IBM ( NYSE:IBM ) , for example, now trading at 15 times 1997 earnings in a market that is trading at 19 times. We also see great value opportunities in the small and midcap area. The valuation developed at the end of 1996, but now we have the catalyst ...


COHEN: And that catalyst is an investment community that believes with low inflation, we can see profit growth continuing the second half of this year and 1998, makes us willing to stretch out.

KANGAS: All right. Very good Abby. I hope those predictions come true as well. Thanks very much for being with us. My guest, Abby Cohen, of Goldman Sachs.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

( c ) 1997 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 11:19
Jojo Let's talk about John Hepcat club>(Let's talk about John Hepcat club):
Wading through ( I mean skipping over ) all these recent postings - it occurs to me that the Kitco discussion for investors and market analysts is slowly becoming the Let's talk about John Hepcat Club.

And knowing you the way I do John, I know you are loving every minute of it.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 11:18
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
PGU gold hedging program detailed:

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 11:16
emma g burp gun>(burp gun):
I'm a guns, gold, and greens ( cash and veggies ) kind of guy
but I think I'll concentrate on the guns ( machine that is )
as a commodity of which no more ( transferable ) are being made
for us civilians. Don't forget to load up on your MREs and
distilled water ( just in case ) . Hi General !

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 11:14
Mary-Rose @don't tangle with Ginger Moggy>(@don't tangle with Ginger Moggy):
The only thing I see in stars and still pools is a large bottle of lithium carbonate with John Hepcat - Take 500mg b.d. on it. Doctor it's not gold you need coursing through your veins, it's lithium......PLEASE PRESCRIBE YOURSELF SOME for our sanity!!!!!!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 11:03

NJ - I didn't even catch that. To be less flip, for any prediction
out beyond six months to prove correct in my case would be a lucky
guess. I've had a string of them recently, but I recognize it can't
go on forever. I am quite comfortable with gold at $325 for the next
three months. Also, since no one follows what I say anyway, it
really doesn't matter if I say $275 or $345.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 11:01
Granny Making a quilt for Ray>(Making a quilt for Ray):
Out here we say, You can't win a fight with a skunk.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 11:00
The way I see it we hav at this forum fanatical believers in gold, fanatical believers in stocks ( JohnnyBoy hepcat, notagoldbug and other misguided souls ) and George S. Cole and RJ who just make money.
Thanks for your time

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 10:59
2 What's the difference?>(What's the difference?):
I will not respond to, comment upon, or recognize in any way,
( 1 ) Any inappropriate post to this group,
( 2 ) Any post from an individual with a recent history of inappropriate posts.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 10:58

Zeke - Every day you sit around bitchin' is another day you
miss out on making some money. Why fight it?

P.S. Man, if you get in at the exact top, you'll be madder 'n a treed cat.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 10:56
zeke's brother cletus>(
Based on what fact do you predict DOW 9000? Thank you for your investment advice.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 10:55
2 The pledge>(The pledge):
I will not respond to, comment upon, or recognize in any way,
( 1 ) Any innappropriate post to this group,
( 2 ) Any post from an individual with a recent history of innappropriate posts.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 10:53
NJ Error>(Error):
john : Forgive my error . Read the years as 1997 and 1998. NotaGoldbug: Your projections for the same dates please.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 10:50

NJ - $325, $325, $325
It is also quite possible that gold will simply be fixed at
$325 or thereabouts by the end of this year due to lack of interest.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 10:49
Would you kindly advise me exectly how high will the stock market go and exectly when will it top out? Or do you feel that it will increase indefinitly?
Best regards

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 10:48
Robert Pringle, Head of World Gold Council strongly criticizes Aussie Central Bank ( RBA ) FOLLY in sale of 2/3s of its gold. Following RBA sale, Aussie Gold Reserves lose $3 billion!!!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 10:45
The american investors will have only themselves and Allan Greenspan to blame when the economy and the stock market crashes. Themselves for their greed and STUPIDITY, and Greenspan for fueling their expectations and for doing nothing to prevent this crazy explosion in increase of stock prices. Eventually, because he has no backbone, he will be made the scapegoat for US problems - unless he resigns before years end. Protect your privacy.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 10:44
NJ Forecasts>(Forecasts):
john : What prices do you forecast for New York spot gold. November 1, 1977, February 1, 1988 and August 1, 1988.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 10:42

Stephen, you're back.
Whew. I was worried. I know you lost that Flag bet and I was hoping
you had some sustenance since that time. It would be interesting to
hear what you've been doing since you lost the bet. I'm sure you'll
be giving us an update on K-2, so I'll go over there and wait for
your concession speech ( get it, concessions? ) .

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 10:41
bb fisher to all>(to all):
to all who have received the zip file with bug tester for Y2K troubles.
as was pointed out to me in a private post this program only the PC's bios not the applications you may be running.
for instance my system is y2k OK but my main trading software from omega research ( great stuff ) is NOT and so i will have full replace the whole program with a newer version unless they can create and update to integrate with my existing program. biy drag really.

i think 'micro' has posted similiar on this forum. it is the applications we run that will make our lives miserable. the computers is the least of it.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 10:15
Since he is oblivious to our calls for commonsense I will now post, in deference to the sane at Kitco, my:

Ode to Hepcat
The Wind-Sucker when he winx at Kitco seems to have a predilection for garboil.
The subsequent dretching of our site is deserving of the cucking-stool.
The doctor, ( if such he really be ) , seems to have a venatical fixation that also requires he venenate all around.
His own fliperous pumpkinification is barely worth a snirtle or a keak.
In fact, he is hardly even worthy of the term 'fonkin' or 'fopdoodle'. Heanling, hufty-tufty, killcow, or mobard are terms which so readily come to mind.
Zoinks' attempts to brangle and his floccinaucinihilipilification habit evoks the desire to cry 'Gardyloo' and mean it!
The effort would, in the end, be wasted.
For, as we all by now realise, the Dragoo is nothing more than a whifling.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 10:01
Richard Burke>(
XAU hit down support at 93.50 and has rebounded to 94.20. According to Deaner could be on way to 100-108 if August gold doesn't go below 323. XAU leading gold at this point. XAU just fell back to 94.1 and seems to be wanting confirmation from gold which it hasn't got yet. We are at a very interesting juncture.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 09:57
Please George, don't short this bull market. Save yourself a lot of pain.
Dow 9000 is just around the corner.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 09:52
George Cole investment strategy>(investment strategy):

Still a little early to short stocks. My main investment now is cash, but I have modest long positions in gold and stock funds. Plan to get entirely out of stocks soon and add to gold fund positions on weakness.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 09:41
vronsky Sovereignty and Money: Past, Present and Future>(Sovereignty and Money: Past, Present and Future):
Glyn Davies, Professor Emeritus of Economics, University of Wales, Cardiff ( UK ) , paints fascinating chronicle of money’s evolution from Jesus to Dostoevsky. An engrossing read of a great scholar:

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 09:32
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold down 1.90.....Dow up and it's time to go to the Sydney casino for some real gambling.....BBL

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 09:29

I have grave concerns that George Cole has been replaced by a recording.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 09:23
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Kitco's quote of gold being $374 is interesting!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 08:54

John Disney - Welcome back. I have this amazing ability to
recognize things precious few people recognize on this channel,
that gold is going nowhere but down, and yet an apparent
inability to recognize that I am suffering from every known
ailment listed in the DSM-IV ( or at least the ones in the
popular press that sound the most amusing or twisted, since
only one person here ( guess who? ) is actually versed
in medicine ) . Thank you for pointing this out. I'm sure your
continued unprovoked attacks on me having nothing to do
with your inability to recognize the current market situation
( over the past year and still ) while knowing yourself ( and perchance your bank
account ) intimately. Oh, and John Disney, you can interpret
what I say about knowing yourself intimately as a projection
mechanism/crude joke coming from someone suffering from a mixed personality disorder ( narcissistic/borderline ) , as wordplay coming from someone
in the manic phase of bipolar disorder ( is everyone writing this down? - I'm
trying to provide some original material for you when you resort to
these kind of psychwar attacks, so you won't be the object
of derision from educated people ) , oh, here's one you should consider,
as the truthful testimony of someone suffering from voyeurism ( peeping
tom syndrome ) .

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 08:47
panda @!>(@!):
Now, if I could just fix my TC2000 data files.... Guess I'll have to call Worden later. How does this kind of thing happen I knew I should have backed up files last week!

Off to slave duties, BBL.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 08:45
panda @>(@):
Roebear -- I'm afraid you'll have to take up arms! Yea verily! Touchee!

:- ) )

How about them Bonds? Folks, I think we have the Second Coming here. The world is now perfect! There is no need for gold! ( Except, of course, as jewelry. ) :- ) )

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 08:40
panda @news flash!>(@news flash!):
Trade war cancelled for today.


Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 08:38
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Panda, how about errant knaves.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 08:31
panda @>(@):
Ted -- What do you think of Kevlar as an investment? I hear that Kevlar stops bullets and errant knives. :- ) )

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 08:30
panda @?>(@?):
Trade War looming?

Excerpts from above;

Late on Tuesday, the U.S. House of Representatives approved a resolution,
416-2, giving its sense that EU disapproval would constitute ``unwarranted and unprecedented interference'' with an American business transaction.

Seventy-five senators also sent Clinton a letter urging him to take ``stern retaliatory measures'' if the Europeans voted to block the merger.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 08:28
TED @panda>(@panda):
Panda: I won't take it out on you!...Long bond up 2 ticks...Gold down 1.30...

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 08:24
Donald @Home>(@Home):
For the German deflation story you have to select Press Releases after you get the homepage. Then select the 21 July press release.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 08:18
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Crisis deepens in Thailand.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 08:15
panda @>(@):
My previous post was completely motivated by the need for self preservation. I'd really hate to be hurt by someone who lost everything in the markets and decided to take it out on me, because I happened to be near by. :- ) )

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 08:13
panda @?>(@?):
I'll restate my previous comment of a while back. With the equities markets going up at one to four percent a day, why work? Even if the markets go no where point wise, the volatility alone could make you a small fortune in no time. This assumes that you are trading the markets. I suspect the next phase of this mania will be the onslaught of individual investors who come from mutual fund trading in to individual stock trading. After all, I want a stock that goes up twenty-five percent a day too!

When this bubble pops, and it will, cash will not be the place to hide. To the nay sayers, at this rate of exponential growth in the valuation of the stock markets around the world, where will the money come from to pay these players? The U.S. stock market has already passed, in valuation terms, 125% of GDP. This market is presently valued at 1.25 times the total output of goods and services of the entire United States economy! HELLO! Is anybody listening?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 08:09
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Stock markets worldwide soar on Greenspan speech.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 08:01
Donald @Home>(@Home):
OOPS: Post of 7:28 should have read Tietmeyer

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 07:52
panda @>(@):
Re-hash of old platinum story.....

Brinksmanship? Or are they really out of the 'stuff'?
And what is this business trip?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 07:51
Donald @Home>(@Home):
A whif of DEFLATION in Germany?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 07:37
Donald @Home>(@Home):
GEORGE S. COLE: Not only did gold not plunge but the Dow/Gold ratio closed at 24.72. Safely below the high of 25.22 on the 16th, well, I hope the word safely is not irrationally exuberant on my part. There is actually a chance we have seen the turn. Today is a crucial day. Everyone who is long gold and short stocks knock on wood.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 07:28
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Germany DAX up 164 you say? I bet that Greenspan gets a personal call from Tietelmann at the Bundesbank before he testifies today.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 07:19
George Cole Greenie as contrary indicator>(Greenie as contrary indicator):
Now that the market has risen a few thousand points since Greenie's irrational exuberance speech back in December, why should the market not drop a few thousand points now that he is talking rational exuberance. Let's face it, he has become a contrary indicator.

The closest thing to free money today is to buy international funds on days when the U.S. stock market surges towards the close. Most major overseas markets follow the next day like clockwork.

Gold's refusal to plunge after yesterday'smarket surge smacks of bottoming action to me. The base for a strong upmove still under construction. Should be finished before long.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 07:19
George Cole Greenie as contrary indicator>(Greenie as contrary indicator):
Now that the market has risen a few thousand points since Greenie's irrational exuberance speech back in December, why should the market not drop a few thousand points now that he is talking rational exuberance. Let's face it, he has become a contrary indicator.

The closest thing to free money today is to buy international funds on days when the U.S. stock market surges towards the close. Most major overseas markets follow the next day like clockwork.

Gold's refusal to plunge after yesterday'smarket surge smacks of bottoming action to me. The base for a strong upmove still under construction. Should be finished before long.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 07:05
panda @where's.the.beef?>(@where's.the.beef?):
Palladium / Platinum story. Stuff? What stuff?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 07:01
Donald @Home>(@Home):
JoJo: There is a book written by R. Earl Hadady called How Sick is Uncle Sam. That helps to answer the kind of question you have. Assets for sal might be Amtrak, U.S. Postal Service, park lands etc. I doubt that even during the worst kind of depression we would sell the Statue of Liberty for scrap metal. Another consideration is that when and if a decision were made to sell the Post Office, for example, it would be at a bottom. We would be selling at the worst possible time and receive the lowest price. Japan sold its government owned telephone system at the market peak. If they had to sell it today, 7 years later, they would get much, much, less.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 06:58
panda @>(@):
George Cole -- Here's the story;

They're buying back 1.6 million ounces. I posted this last night, I guess no one saw it.

Good morning TED, been off-line during the day. I try to catch up at night....

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 06:51
TED @europe>(@europe):
Mornin Panda! Europe is soarin...DAX up 164 ( almost 4% ) and the other markets are mostly up approx. 3%.....EBN Gold is now only down 1.05 which ain't bad...considering....Glad Iez in stox too!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 06:37
panda @>(@):
Looks like over seas markets have gone ballistic. I wonder what the disapointment will be?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 06:05
REB na>(na):
RJ: Your post to Arden a while back regarding putting on a blindfold and spinning around to point at gold anywhere stuck with me. As sometimes happens, one of those things to which I wake up in the middle of the night.

The condition you describe with your metaphor isn't new. It was thus last year, five years ago, 50 or 100 years ago. What is new today and behind the drop in gold is the level of trust placed in fixed dollar debt of the USA. I submit that the horde of gold in the world in relation to the level of other assets and the size of the world economy is actually less than it has been historically. I don't have numbers to back this up, except that we have seen numbers on this forum that show the absolute level of gold in CB hordes has dwindled over the last forty years or so.

There's another thing that's new in only the last 20 years or so: the magnitude of the US debt. The US government has passed out to its constituants $5.3 trillion in current consumable goods and services by issuing promises allow the holders of such debt the right to such consumption in the future. Can this future consumption ever actually occur? I believe the answer to this is clearly no. It can only be rolled forward. If the debt is ever called in mass, it can only be repaid by the fed creating dollars from thin air, and we know what that would mean. Now that a substantial part of this debt is held outside our boundaries by a block that is not in our military sphere of influence ( which at some point WILL include Japan imo ) , the issue of willingness to participate in this rolling forward game may become critical.

Will confidence in US paper and paper assets continue its recent path? We'll see. I side with Cherokee regarding pendulums. What I don't know is when.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 06:03
Sirocco @hot.air - not hepcat.>(@hot.air - not hepcat.):
Good Mornin. EBN Gold 225-235 +/- 10. COMEX Gold variable. Beans: full of it today.
TED: I still love you. But EARL: what a stud, I love him even more than TED ( sorry TED ) . SCOTTY: great, I love you too. Cherokee: quiet.
You are a bunch of foxy, dashing, intelligent and astute republicans. Way to go!. I love you guys.... a bunch. Life on earth would be so much better with you guys guiding us though these so numerous philosophical problems we are facing. I L.O.V.E you all.
Sirocco ...
Time to go for a walk in Queens... a beautiful day... eveybody is smiling... Everything is cool.
Tommorrow, I will pay a visit to the miners of those S.A. that are closing. Sorry I won't be with you, my loves.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 05:47
Hello PeanutGallery,
A couple days ago PeanutGallery you asked an interesting question. I have been unsuccessful in finding the answer. Essentially you asked if US government debt was not simply an illusion - based on the idea that when we discuss debt we only consider liabilities but not the assets which your friend claimed are so large as to dwarf the debt ( $59 trillion dollars ) . Of course the US ( in a crunch and to avoid default ) could sell off assets. They would not sell off their military hardware, but there is a lot that could be sold off ( I suppose ) . Unfortunately, I have always been better at numbers than at painstaking library research; I checked all the normal places ( StatAbst, etc. ) and I can not find an estimate of total US gov't assets in current dollars. Still looking...if anyone knows where to find it let me know please.

Status update: Regarding gold...our position ( on the short side ) is tredding water and getting out of breath. Regarding SP ...position ( long ) was closed out due to the happy happenstance of reaching our target price - oh God I love this magnificent market rise. ( And please God, allow me the joy of being short when the time comes! )

Don't Worry, Be Happy

Jojo in Tokyo

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 05:30
George Cole Mine closing hedges>(Mine closing hedges):

mine to buy gold at low price ( BD Pg.15 )

JCI-managed gold mine Western Areas will buy 1,6-million ounces of gold, taking advantage of a possible increase in bullion’s price, which plummeted
to a 12-year low earlier in the month, the company said yesterday.


Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 05:01
TED @sunrise>(@sunrise):
EBN Gold down 1.60 but as George S. Cole said not bad all things considered...Let's see if Greenspan tries to prick the balloon just a bit today after the surge in equities yesterday...

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 05:00
TED @sunrise>(@sunrise):
EBN Gold down 1.60 but as George S. Cole said not bad all things considered...Let's see if Greenspan tries to prick the balloon just a bit today after the surge in equities yesterday...

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 04:54
George Cole August gold>(August gold):
Augyst gold now off a buck according to DBC..Still not bad considering yesterday's surge in U.S. stocks and bonds.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 04:31
Whoops, sorry, wrong discussion group.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 04:22
Please can somebody tell me how much a gold bar is worth in English pounds. This question came about last night whilst watching a film. Hope you can answer.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 03:12
Reader 2 @>(@):

Actually that guy the crocodile ate was EB. He was trying to say, AWAY!!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 03:09
Reader 2 @>(@):

Mr. Disney: Not Supposed To Laugh But Can't Stop!!!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 02:51
John Disney>(
To all - breaking news from RSA ____

I assume that you have all heard of the crime problem
in RSA - particularly in the Joberg area. This problem
is due partly to the unbelievable incompetance of our
police force but mainly to our judicial system. In the
unlikely event that a criminal is actually apprehended,
the judicial system ensures that he will be released
immediately and inconvenienced as little as possible.
The Minister of Justice is called DULLah Omar - alias
Omar the bent. He is anti american - anti western -
anti white - pro cuban - presumably pro Lybian- anti
capital punishment - pro human rights for criminals.
He is said to be a close friend of Mandela and did
apparently did his legal training at Robben Island
Despite the problem of no police force and no judicial
system, there is hope on the horizon.
The Animals are stepping into the void. A gorilla
named Max made a citizen's arrest of a burglar who
in running from the so-called police had cleverly
jumped into the gorilla enclosure at the Joberg zoo to
He was apprehended by Max - but he shot brave max
twice in the struggle - the police arrived on the scene
( probably by mistake ) and shot the burglar ( probably by
accident ) in a very delicate spot. Max is recovering
and will soon be made neighborhood watch team leader.
In the North, a large crocodile apprehended an
illegal immigrant swimming across the Limpopo river.
This croc is said to be called Judge Dredd by the
local tribesman. Anyway, the croc found the illegal
guilty as charged and ate him on the spot. He was reported
to be heard mumbling Ayyamdulaw ayyamdulaw as he swan
away - but I dont believe it.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 02:22
John Disney: Good to read your latest earnings report and sober advice. I do follow it. Mostly. But occasionally the hour is late, the flesh is weak and it serves to dissipate a little energy.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 02:08
John Disney>(
For Scotty/Earl -
Please dont take John seriously. He IS sick - He just
doesn't realize it. He is delusional. He is paranoid.
Dont hurt him nor stir him up needlessly - please.
Read him whenever you get the chance and thank God that
on this earth there is AT LEAST ONE MAN that you are
much better than.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 02:04
John @hep: Stated categorically: nada, khong, zero, zip, none and never. Methinks, thou doth protest too much. Clean of assumed handles for two months. Wow! An amazing accomplishment. Zowie! ..... Didja find a quarter yet?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 01:57

Earl - I follow a lot of things. Maybe you should listen instead of
always getting your undergarments in a wad when my name
is offering the advice.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 01:56
KJB Russia's gold output>(Russia's gold output):
11:51 a.m. Jul 15, 1997 Eastern

Other officials see Russia's 1997 gold output in the range of 95-110 tonnes, down from approximately 124 tonnes in 1996.

Miners say output in Russia, the world's fifth largest gold producer with the world's third largest reserves in the ground, will fall if the state does not provide more funds.

--Julie Tolkacheva, Moscow Newsroom, +7095 941 8520 ^REUTER@

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 01:55
John Disney>(
To all--
Gencor group quarterlies just out.
Evender eps at 6.6 cent per share versus 85 cents last
Beatrix at 46 cents versus 52 cents last quarter
St Helena at 1.56 rand versus 60 cents last quarter
St Helena and oryx look very interesting
For info the local high cost Northam PGM mine has
risen from 2.1 rands to 2.7 in space of a week.
Poor performance of RSA golds unrelated to political
problems mentioned on site - RSA industrial up about
13% so far this year in $ terms. Political problems
are not selective to the gold industry. Poor performance
RSA gold due low gold price and to local institutions
avoiding/selling this sector in favor of industrials and
local bonds which yield about 15%.
Dont get me wrong. RSA is indeed run by a corrupt
bunch of clowns. However, they have a bright guy at the
central bank. It's always been like this ( albeit with a
few color changes ) . It is much like the USA in that
It could be worse. Australia,for example, doesnt even
have a bright guy at the central bank.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 01:51

Earl - Do you have any proof that over the past two months I have
posted under multiple handles? No. In fact, there is no proof, because
for the past two months I have posted under one handle. I guess the
final arbiter would be Bart Kitner, who would also be the final arbiter
for the veracity of your most recent statements as well. Care to approach
the bench?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 01:47

MaryJane - I am in fine physical and mental health. Thank you
and thank everyone for your continued concern. After about
the forty-seventh reference to my mental health does it start
to get funny? Does everyone who posts about me needing
a psychiatrist or adjustment in my medications think they
are posting some novel zinger?

MaryLou, one person I am somewhat concerned about is
Stephen Mooney. He hasn't posted here under that handle
for about two weeks. I know have devastating losing a
bet can be on someone ( well, I don't personally have any
experience with it, but I'm sure it could make someone who
had lost face want to hide behind multiple handles, KWIM? ) .
If you see him while you're gazing into a still pond or something,
could you ask him how he's doing?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 01:43
Rhyme @games>(@games):
Question:How can you tell when a politician is lying?
Answer:When you see their lips moving.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 01:35
John @hep: As per usual, the name is real and so's the address. You know perfectly well that I have never assumed other handles. At the same time, I have never understood your fixation on the use of multiple handles by others. When, as I have said before, you display more handles than a fat man's coffin.

BTW, I found your comment regarding scrap silver coins interesting. From past comments, I gather that you follow the coin market. Consider leaving your ego on the dresser sometime and make a contribution in an area you follow. Hmmmm? ...... Failing that, squelch away.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 01:26
Refer 6 Paks last post>(6 Paks last post):
In the post 6 pak briefly states the fact that the 29 crash was a major transfer of wealth if not the largest. If it happens or I should say when it does happen it will reach far outside our borders with the one world economy.

Speaking of one world, how bout the WTO, a centralized ENITY that has, or will have power with in our borders

If seems odd to me that people make a living simply by selling paper right down the company lines. I know of people that do this; they receive the brokerage letter on which paper to push.

We have market charts that spike up in the same curves as the national debt. We are comming upon the point where the tax revenues alone will not service the debt. Wait till the interest rates climb and then watch debt spiral upward.

Consumer faith!? Is that the faith of the foreign money consuming our debt? It should be. When will that be lost?

I'm simply amazed all these guru's self appointed ( Which as of late there seems to be some here ) are not, don't see that things burn the brightest before they burn out.

The transfer of power ( wealth ) is coming. I would think this would be a good forum to prepare and share ideas not egos.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 01:22
Auric Goldfinger@Ft.Knox>(Goldfinger@Ft.Knox):

RJ-May I suggest the term auronaut? BTW, if the J stands for Jason, you could be an argonaut!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 01:15
Mary-Rose @piecing it all together>(@piecing it all together):
Some of the cat fights are certainly interesting.....Hepcat writes from a medical site....he obviously has a few inexplicable problems....he retired early ( we're not sure why, but we can guess ) ..Perhaps we should just be a little more tolerant and encourage him to keep taking his medication and attending therapy....Maybe one day they'll let him out.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 00:58
JIN: voce fala o Portugues?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 00:52

Earl - I promise to put you first on my squelch list, if
you promise to register under your real name.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 00:46
RJ Earl>(Earl):
They got some, ain't got enough.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 00:46
Thanks for the post.I really respcted and learn lots from you all,george cole,ted,glenn,arden,earl,...many many more!bravo!
To all the bears and bulls,BRAVO MUITO OBRIGADOO!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 00:43
It's quite simple. If the mining companies were able to
to issue hedged gold backed certificates or some similar creative
vehicle that allowed the public to profit ( via a dividend ) from
owning gold on paper, this would substantially propel the price.
Just as the hedge game has been played on the downside for so many
years, an equally impressive paper game could be played out
on the upside for gold. Getting the public heavily involved
in paper physical gold investing could possibly be the
wild card for turning the gold market around especially since
the public is more interested in paper anyway.

As for when gold will turn around, I believe that the catalyst
will be central bank realization that they are not all working
together. Visualizing that massive transfers of wealth are
occurring from one nation to another will tend to prevent subsequent
gold sales from the underdog central banks.
It would be interesting to see an analysis of what the past and
current distributions of wealth are world wide.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 00:40
RJ: Is that another way of saying: They ain't got none?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 00:35
RJ PGMs Again>(PGMs Again):
From my post @ June 5,1997 00:26 : Look for the Russians to announce resumption of palladium shipments next week with barely enough to under satisfy current demand.

CNN Bridge News
New York--July 22--
Platinum's and palladium’s rallies were a continued rebound from their lows on word Russian shipments of the metals had resumed on a limited basis. Russian shipments of palladium have been lower than expected and there have yet to be confirmed exports of platinum.

Russia, the world's largest exporter of palladium and second-largest platinum producer, had been unable to ship the metals since January and only resumed shipments in early July.

However, lower-than-expected export volumes have been in place since shipments resumed, in part due to continuing internal wrangling within the Russian government, traders said. Because of difficulties in shipping the metal by the Russian central bank, the exports haven't met expectations.

The difficulty appears to be in establishing the shipment protocols within the central bank, this trader said. Prior to a shake-up in the Russian government, the export agency Almaz was tasked with shipments; now the central bank is responsible for the exports has failed to ship as expected due to its suspected failure to develop the logistical support for the export shipments.


Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 00:34
EB Well...where to start?...perhaps I'll wait...>(Well...where to start?...perhaps I'll wait...):
It's still too early...



Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 00:33

Scotty - To paraphrase what Pete Rozelle once stated ( or was it Al Davis? )
about bad press:

I don't care what they say about me, just make sure they spell my name right

Your reposting of my recent posts is wonderful publicity, and I can't be attacked
for self-aggrandizement since you are doing it for me. Please keep it up.


Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 00:25

bbfisher - Please recall my conversation with D.A. early in July
regarding my reluctance to posit a move for gold below $300 this year.
I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying we have to acclimate
at $325 for a while before I can give any kind of meaningful estimate
where to from here. One thing I notice is that as silver goes lower,
the bid on 40% bags approaches face value. I cannot imagine
a stronger resistance to further declines than telling people all the
'65-'69 Kennedy halves they stored away for years can now be spent,
( or a more fatal blow for any chance of recovery should this resistance
be pierced ) . Please also refer to my numerous posts where I specifically
avoid any exertion in the direction of elucidation, and my delight in
pointing this out. I don't have to package this, it is packaging itself
will probably be my fondest remembrance of Kitco once I am banished
( accent on the third syllable ) to the hinterlands, and the greatest truism
at this site probably for years to come.

D.A. - Thank you for your skepticism and your optimism.

All - You have to ask yourself, After how many correct calls
by the 'Cat will I finally admit defeat? If your answer is, Hepcat
could make 70 x 7 calls and I would still never be convinced then
I would issue the gentle remonstrance - Of what benefit are your
opinions here?

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 00:23
Teacher: Whether intentional or not, you have provided us with another fine example of the modern curriculum for public education and the salutory effect it has on public manners.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 00:11
John @hep: If you can scrounge up a quarter, please run to the nearest phone and call someone who gives a damn. Your constant demands for respect grow more tedious by the minute. If it is respect you feel you deserve, consider showing it and it will come to you as a natural course.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 00:08
Scotty paying attention>(paying attention):
John-hepcat...........did you actually write the following?

[[Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 12:21
john ( ) :

WSF - Given that you've done so well, why the absence of magnanimity?]]

Magnanimous is defined as Generous and noble, especially in forgiving. I just cannot believe you are asking such a silly question when your posts do not indicate similar behavior.

Just wanted everyone to know I am paying attention.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 00:06
Teacher @working the mines>(@working the mines):
Comments for the day:

Rj is playin with matches.
Hepcat has no matches to play with.
Cherocreep ( spit! ) doesn't know what a match is. That was my point, moron. Get it? Duh!!!

Gold is ready to soar!!!

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 00:06
Scotty not taking this lying down>(not taking this lying down):
John-hepcat......this morning you wrote:

[[Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:02
john ( ) :

WSF - This is an investment site, not a amateur psychoanalysis site.
The bottom line is: Who came out ahead over the last year with regards
to money - People who listened to you, or people who listened to me?
Do you have any other excuses for why you didn't sell your gold stocks?
Maybe because it is a cleansing experience to be poor?]]

Agreed 100% that this is an investment site. And not a psychoanalysis site. I might add that it is not an insulting site; it is not a bravado site; and it is not an I-am-better-than-you site. Just thought you'd like to know.

Date: Wed Jul 23 1997 00:04
RJ I might like being gilded>(I might like being gilded):
Student - Auronostic from: aureate? Of a golden color; gilded. A second definition: Inflated and pompous in style. Hmmmmmm. That seems to fit sometimes.

Related: Aurelian
Emperor of Rome ( A.D. 270-275 ) who held the barbarians in check beyond the Rhine River and regained Britain, Gaul, Spain, Syria, and Egypt for the empire.

Oh, I don’t know, lets ask Auric.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:52
NJ charts>(charts):
Byron : Many thanks. I was leaving out /home.asp. Impatient fat fingers take the blame.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:51
6pak Speculation @ Freedom....(Is to blame?)>(Speculation @ Freedom....(Is to blame?)):
* Freedom of Speculation* *Free Trade* *poor get poorer* ?
July 22 1997
George Soros, whose speculative moves in global currency markets are
well known

My Exploited Father-in-Law F.D.R. Col. Curtis B. Dall, Liberty Lobby
Wash.,D.C. 1970.
Col. Curtis B. Dall, who was a broker on Wall Street at that time, ( 1929 )
writes of the Crash, Actually it was the calculated *shearing* of the
public by the World Money-Powers, triggered by the planned sudden
shortage of the supply of call money in the New York money market.

Overnight, the Federal Reserve System had raised the call rate to twenty
percent. Unable to meet this rate, the *speculators'* only alternative
was to jump out of windows.

GEORGE SOROS stay away from windows, history is about to repeat, and
you, and your's are being blamed, as the *speculator* was blamed in the

These suits all attend the same institutions of higher learning, hell,
they read history, it worked before, do it again, the people are stupid.
The poor, are poor, because the poor want to be poor, everyone knows that
to be the truth, EH!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:40

Scotty - Please go back to the original proposal, the one that prompted
your ludicrous counteroffer. In that original proposal, I said gold was going
to be at $325 on Tuesday, July 29. I encouraged all comers to take a
stab at where they thought gold was going to be on Tuesday, July 29,
with the stipulation that all prediction had to be in before that midnight.
The condition of the bet was this: If you were off by $5, no posting for a month.
This is what is known as a open-ended bet, Scotty. People could enter into
it as they wished, but the stipulation was that they had to make a prediction.
A total of two different people took me up on the offer, one of whom posted
the same prediction, one of whom posted after midnight ( but apparently
prior to midnight their time ) with a slightly higher prediction. Clearly you remember this, Scotty, or you wouldn't have posted your follow-up nonsensical challenge,
not only after the deadline, but also without any type of prediction ( except,
from what I can discern ) a type of null hypothesis or negation of my hypothesis,
that gold was not going to end up at $325. Scotty - What kind of person would
enter into an even money bet where they were given one possible outcome
and the other person the remaining ( infinite number of ) outcomes. What kind
of person would propose such a bet? What kind of person would not recognize
sarcasm in a follow-up post to an outlandish proposal such as this, or recognize
that to fold something up origami-like into the shape of an anus was a polite
way of saying take your proposed bet and place it deftly up near your
sigmoid colon? Scotty, the number of supporting posts you have
received since your posts ( none ) would indicate that your attempt to
win anyone over to your lost cause has failed miserably. For you not
to be able to get a rise out of the Kitco regulars who jump on any and
every anti-Hepcat bandwagon that rolls through indicates you have failed
even more miserably. Why don't you be a good boy and bracket my initial post that prompted you to come up with your derivative counter proposal.
And why don't you use your limited intelligence to try and master a short-con you
may be more cut out for:
Hey mister, I'll bet I can tell you where you got your shoes.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:39
arden @RJ>(@RJ):
Yes, gold has been going down as have gold inventories. I have a chart of the montly DJIA on my wall. It sure looks like a parabola to me. So if London is where the action is, why is the price set in New York?

By the way, if antihistimines can induce you to short gold, what on earth could make you write so eloquently in the wee hours of the morn?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:38
Byron @ A Peek At Kitco:>(@ A Peek At Kitco:):
Kitco 24 hr gold chart shows that the boys are having a little fun in Sydney and Hong Kong. So far during the last 24 hrs we have had a $6.00 spread between the high and low quotes for gold.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:36
aurator Dose who trade de yellow>(Dose who trade de yellow):
STUDENT: I prefer a u d a c i o u s

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:33
KGB Zupercell Ve luk for Offzitz zSpace>(Ve luk for Offzitz zSpace):

KGB Zupercell luk for offvitz in Newport Beach Area, shud be klose to broker offvitz who zell invizable platinum.
RJ post uf dizsy spin vit gold, sound like story of KGB Agent, who luk up skirt an zee karburator.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:33
Byron @ Supplemental Info:>(@ Supplemental Info:):
NJ: Might want to start at the home page of site and work you way from there.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:29
arden RJ>(RJ):

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:27
Byron @ A Hope and A Pray>(@ A Hope and A Pray):
Vronsky: E-mail sent. Hope you received same.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:26
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):
NJ: No registration is required at that site.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:13
NJ Charts>(Charts):
Byron : Yes, that's the one. Thanks. Is there any way to get the charts without signing up etc.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:12
Savage (?):
RJ & RT: Did you say paranoid? Would you like to join my support group? Admission requires a brokers letter of terminal prognosis.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:10
Steve - Try:

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:07
Jack In todays F.T 7/22/97 an artical by Kenneth Gooding>(In todays F.T 7/22/97 an artical by Kenneth Gooding):

Could not find it after searching in the F.T. 7/23/97 tid-bit, just posted. It seems that the usual suspects were being quoted and something about $260 gold, before mines cut production. Merill and T.A. must be sweating.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:06
RJ: ...but who trade it: auronostic

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:04
steve nynex>(nynex):
Do you have the site address for nynex.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:04
TED @novice>(@novice):
Novice:Why forget's gettin cheaper by the month and I'm on the prowl for bargains....Goodnight ALL!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 23:02
Byron @ Found Chart>(@ Found Chart):
NJ: Found the chart you refered to: Newmont Chart going back to 1970's. Had suggested that one place a flexible ruler on the computer screen along the support line. Would tend to think that support line will hold. The URL is,12

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:59
x x>(x):
nynex access has august gold down $2 at $324.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:55
Jack Another view>(Another view):

Financial Times report seems to interpret A.G's comments differently? also other good reads.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:52
MoreGold @price>(@price):
Unfortunately it's down 2.15 on ABN. It will be interesting to see how it opens on Comex tomorrow. Can Greenie have that much of an effect on AU....

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:52
Byron Play The Spread>(Play The Spread):
Hmmm. I wonder if a can play the spread ( arbritrage ) between the DBC quote on gold and the EBN quote.? : )

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:43
Steve Gold up or down ?>(Gold up or down ?):
DBC has gold up 0.40 and EBN has Gold Down $2.15. Does anyone know which one is correct or an alternative site.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:38
Skylark: Thanks. I am not an expert on the Australian and So. African mining industries, but I suspect their hard times have more to do with local politics. Nor did I mean to imply that gold is THE currency. Clearly it is in a long bear market, as is the dollar, peso, franc, myanmar whatever, and so forth. It is having an uptick which may or may not turn out to be meaningful going forward. Currencies are just not what they used to be. Now one wants physical assets or paper assets depending upon circumstances. Currencies, including gold, appear to be wasting assets except for the closing of deals on a daily basis. ( All this in my humble opinion, and I reserve the right to be wrong..:- )

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:34
Novice @Garzarelli II>(@Garzarelli II):
Hi Ted: Forget gold. Check the PGMs. Bonsoir, mon ami.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:18
Byron Yesterday:>(Yesterday:):
NJ ( 21:15 ) : What great chart?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:17
RJ Arden>(Arden):

COMEX gold and silver inventories have been drawing down for years now, the prices seem to be following. It used to be that COMEX stocks were viewed with a reverent eye. Now it seems to be nothing more than proof that London is where the action is moving.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:16
Skylark home>(home):
Aurophile: Thank you very much. I over-looked that. But continuing on the same line of thinking. If gold is improving re: other currencies, which it is, why then are not the RSA and Australian gold equities responding better than they are. I am mentioning this not to be argumentative but because it simply occurred to me while reading your post and it appears to be a good question.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:15
Leaner harrybrowne.forprez>(harrybrowne.forprez):
Go to library and see if you can get access to any of Harry Browne's
books. The reason is for its excellent perceptions of the coming turbulent times in the financial world and what we could be looking forward too in the not to distant future.








It kind of sounds like what we've talking about recently, what do think? MEGA GURU GOES TO WASHINGTON!! NOPE THE ESTABLISHMENT HATES

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:10
Let he who is without tin, cast the first throne.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:10
TED @japan>(@japan):
Evening Japan....Go Rangers!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:08
Skylark: Gold IS another currency. Ask any cenral bank. Just as crude oil and many useful items are generally quoted in $US for convenience, so too is gold. But anywhere it is legal to buy and sell it, it is quoted in local legal tender terms. The significant event is when gold is going up ( or down ) versus many or all OTHER currencies. Lately it has been going up against them all, even the mighty $US. In the 1970's the concept of a gold advance/decline line was popular. This was a cumulative daily tally of gold's currency action against all other currencies.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:08
RJ Gold shorts.>(Gold shorts.):
My gold shorts placed at 10 am today, are in profits now. Can we coin a new term for some who is not a goldbug, but is not the antitheses of goldbug? Its not that I don’t like gold, I own gold and I am happy to have it. We need a term for those of us who do not hate gold, but view it as a trading vehicle. I know, I am opening myself wide for all sorts of derisive names…..Go ahead, this will not be there first time I have been the brunt of Kitco jokes. These antihistamines are making me paranoid………

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:05
Da'Hood East LA>(East LA):

Bob: ( 21:33 ) Sheez, that happens alla time round here.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:02
WDL @ a story to lighten the evening>(@ a story to lighten the evening):
RJ's comment on getting stoned on antihistamines reminds me of a story.

There was this African prince from a poor third world country whose tiny
principality went from rags to riches because oil was discovered in his kingdom. Suddenly, almost overnight, the country was transformed from one of shacks and grass huts to beautiful homes, offices and highways.
Even the old Executive Mansion was torn down to make way for a new
and splendid Executive Glass House ( a symbol of his majesty's honesty
and straightforwardness with his people ) .

The only remnants of the old days would be a few artificats like old scepters and a couple of swords along with the prince's grandfather's
mahagony throne ( a symbol of the old regime ) . The throne and other
ancient artificats were stored in a back room in the new Glass Palace.

Well, as fate would have it..a structural defect caused the heavy
mahogony throne to come cascading down through the several glass
floors causing extensive damage to the new Glass Palace.


Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 22:00
RJ Arden>(Arden):
70K, is busy, but hardly extraordinary. A short squeeze happens when there are not enough sellers or enough physical supplies to cover deliveries. I don’t think a credible case can be made for either scenario in gold. If the last few years have demonstrated anything,, there is no paucity of sellers. ( my thanks to Subjective Observer for the use of paucity ) As for physical supplies; yes, COMEX stocks are somewhat low, but there are enormous stockpiles of gold everywhere. Stand up, OK, now close your eyes….Good…….Now, spin around real fast……….Raise your arm to a horizontal position and extend index finger………..OK, you are now pointing at a plethora of gold. Go ahead, try it, its fun. If you get a bit dizzy, that’s just about how I feel with all these antihistamines coursing through my vessels.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:52
Goldbug23 @Ingot>(@Ingot):
Nomercy: Your article on Chinese Navy exercises should make those who posted here recently that Taiwan was no problem think again. If they strike Taiwan it will be over before our CIC could make up his mind on what we should do. The only thing that might stop them from acting soon is the favorable trade balance they have with us which is lining their coffers, with a lot of the precious yellow I suspect.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:51
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Gold rapidly dropping...EBN Gold down 2.0 and Silver down 3 cents...

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:50
6pak Credit Deflation @ World-Wide>(Credit Deflation @ World-Wide):
( Clarence W. Barron,*They Told Barron*,Harpers,New York, 1930, p 353 )

The agreement between the Bank of England and the Washington Federal
Reserve authorities many months ago was that we would force the export
of 725 million of gold by reducing the bank rates here, thus helping
the stabilization of France and Europe and putting France on a gold
basis ( April 20, 1928 )

In his annual report to the stockholders of his International Acceptance
Bank, in March, 1929, Mr. Warburg ( Federal Reserve ) said:

If the orgies of unrestrained speculation are permitted to spread, the
ultimate collapse is certain not only to affect the speculators themselve
but to bring about a general depression involving the entire country

February 06 1929 Wall Street Bankers were running the show.
Gold movements were completely unreliable.
The Quarterly Journal of Economics noted that:
The question has been raised, not only in this country, but in several
European countries, as to whether customs statistics record with accuracy
the movements of the precious metals, and, when investigations has been
made, confidence in such figures has been weakened rather than strength-
ened. Any movement between France and England, for instance, should be
recorded in each country, but such comparison shows an average yearly
discrepancy of fifty million francs for France and eighty-five million
francs for England. These enormous discrepancies are not accounted for

Review of Reviews September issue 1929
The Federal Reserve statement for August 07 1929, shows that signs of
inadequacy for autumn requirements do not exist. Gold resources are
considerably more than the previous year, and gold continues to move in,
to the financial embarrassment of Germany and England. The reasons for
the Board's action must be sought elsewhere. The public has been given
only the hint that *This problem has presented difficulties because of
certain peculiar conditions*. Every reason which Governor Young advanced
for lowering the bank rate last year exists now. Increasing the rate
means that not only is there danger of drawing gold from abroad, but
imports of the yellow metal have been in progress for the last four
months. To do anything to accentuate this is to take the responsibility
for bringing on a world-wide credit deflation

Governor Adolph C. Miller stated at the Senate Investigation of the
Federal Reserve Board in 1931 that:
If we had had no Federal Reserve System, I do not think we would have had as bad a speculative situation as we had, to begin with.

The London Statist on May 25 1929 said:
The banking authorities in the United States apparently want a business
panic to curb speculation

The London Economist on May 11 1929 said:
The events of the past year have seen the beginnings of a new technique,
which, if maintained and developed, may succeed in *rationing the
speculator without injuring the trader*

Governor Charles S. Hamlin quoted this statement at the Senate hearings
in 1931 and said, in corroboration of it:
That was the feeling of certain members of the Board, to remove Federal
Reserve credit from the speculator without injuring the trader

Emmanuel Goldenweiser, director of research for the Federal Reserve
System, said, in 1947:
It is clear in retrospect that the Board should have ignored the
speculative expansion and allowed it to collapse of its own weight.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:40
arden you can't kid a kidder, RJ)>(you can't kid a kidder, RJ)):
RJ I don't think 70,000 contracts is a normal day. Last month we has a week that averaged less than 10,000 contracts per day. No normal is about 20,000. Granted that some of the excess was due to rollover from August to December, etc., but it was still an extreme day. My point is that even with 73,000 contracts, we could only drop 20 cents ( of course you would point out that we didn't go up with all of that buying! ) .

I think if you check the historical records that you will find the amount of physical gold pledged for delivery per outstanding contract is the lowest in Comex history! Your thinking is way too complacent in my opinion, you could just get yours fingers burned by being short too long. Have you ever been caught in a short squeeze?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:35
Roebear @WW18:49, bw and all>(@WW18:49, bw and all):
WW your post and many others reflecting on the obvious conspiracy against gold/for equities here has caused me to wonder about the ultimate objectives of such a plan. While various scenarios have been touched on it would seem profitable if further theory would be developed as to the actual target these conspirators have in mind. Besides their chance pleasure in squashing goldbugs, as I feel we are only collateral damage in their view.
As some here would say, looking to the past to see the future, please allow me to use Genesis 41 as a figure. Perhaps you remember the passage as the story of how Joseph interpreted Pharoahs dream of seven fat cows/lean cows signified seven years of plenty and seven years of drought and Joseph urged Pharoah to save up 20% of the surplus each year. This allowed Pharoah to save his people when the famine came. But of course Pharoah did not give the stored food away, he sold it! Not mentioned explicitly is the effect that by the time the seven lean years were over Pharoah owned virtually everyone and everything and his power was greatly increased. Whether this is fable or faith to anyone matters not at all, it is the principle that I am alluding to. Those that hint at conspiracy here should be bold enough to look at the consequent end of the equation they are beginning to cypher. Thanks for your time. Hopefully my poor two cents invested at kitco will be turned into silver dollars by the many fertile minds here. Or perhaps I was just overcome by chocolate fumes again. TTFN

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:34
RJ Gold? No thanks, just sold some,>(Gold? No thanks, just sold some,):
D.A. - I put on more gold shorts Friday, and today at the high. Bought all the silver I intend to buy at these levels. My clients are holding long PL primarily from 360 - 400, with a bit as high as 440. I am trading no PA, it could still go anywhere, the risk is too great. I agree that Tiger will wait, just like it waited at 250 PA. I have not been alone here in saying that the PGM ride is not over. Round 2 should be fun. You might find it interesting to know, that the Russians bought PA from my company in May and June. The gold shorts have been the saving grace. I will sell all rallies but will buy no dips. I’ll make the long $ in silver and platinum. I probably won’t do a lot more this week, came down with a cold. Maybe its some sort of damnable Russian swine flu. I knew I shoulda’ held my breath when I bashed that KGB guy, his OOOOOFFF was full of spittle. Russians, can’t trust ‘em, can’t bash ‘em. I’ve got to go, getting kind of stoned on these antihistamines.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:33
Bob @...Russian CB Chairman and mafia ?>(@...Russian CB Chairman and mafia ?):
I read a news digest from a Russian news list that the chairman of the Russian CB had his apartment in Moscow straifed with bullets recently. The Moscow police haven't a clue about the perpetrators.


Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:31
Skylark home>(home):
D.A. Thanks for the explanation. Your comment on the currencies being a 2-way street is well-taken. I can see foreign investors dumping gold if the dollar fell faster than gold was appreciating relative to their currency.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:31
Japan @ the golden moment>(@ the golden moment):
To all .... We still are buying real gold , while others buy fools gold.
Only a short time left?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:28
panda @>(@):
Somebody is buying back the stuff they sold.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:28
TED @WW>(@WW):
Hi WW! You gotta admit Wall Street's P.R. machine is doin a damn good job and even though I've taken advantage of it for the past 10+ years I'm beginning to get a little nervous at these lofty levels....Is all the good news NOW in?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:25
WDL @Greenspan's comments>(@Greenspan's comments):
Greenspan's discussion involving productivity reminds me of the Luddites
in English history during the Industrial Revolution...Will we someday see
people smashing computers because they're taking jobs away from real
people? Just a thought.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:25
Skylark home>(home):
Ron Jett: Thanks, I will do a retake on the charts.
DONALD: I concur with your comments. Although AG appeared to be setting the stage for another rate increase, it is hard to see this taking place without aggrevating the dollar's strength, cause more discomfort to multi-nationals, and distress Japan and Germany who have voiced concern over the current strength.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:24

A rise in the price of gold in foreign currencies does not help the fundamentals of gold in the physical supply / demand sense but does increase its value relative to the basket of world paper. Since many investors are price followers, the rising price of gold in G7 countries can have a major change on investment demand. This can be ( as has been seen over the past 18 months ) a far stronger force than the physical production / consumption force.

Since moves in an individual currency are often fleeting the price of gold denominated in that currency can also change quickly. Were the dollar to reverse half of its gains in the DM over the past year and gold remain at the same value in DM terms gold would go up some 40$ in US terms.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:19
WW @NE>(@NE):
To TED @ CAPE BRETON: It isnt what Greeenspan says it is how Wall St. utilizes its assets to create a positive spin by mkt price action. The key to them is to continue to draw more and more money into the game. W/o the money the prices will fall if this happens the amt of money coming will fall and prices will fall and prices will decline creating bad headlines thus creating less inflow thereby creating lower prices and worse headlines..and so it will go!! Greenspan and Rubin are thanking their lucky stars for stk index futures which make all miraculous stk mkt turnarounds possible and have allowed the current bubble to grow. USE STREN GTH TO SELL. God Bless Indexes for giving us the opportunity to sell at such high prices!!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:15
NJ Charts >(Charts ):
Byron : How about a set of instructions for the great chart you posted yesterday.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:12
ron jett>(
skylark The chart is a simple daily recording of the London P.M. Close of Gold as recorded here at Kitco.

The moving averages are different from the standard ones used by many traders. I've found them to be very accurate andmuch better than the standard ma's. If you need more please let me know.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:11
D.A. come.clean>(come.clean):

Common now, how much more you been sellin? Buy any Pa? I've got a theory on this one that the Russians promised delivery at $200 / oz. When the price dropped below the last few weeks they have been buying. Did you notice on the day that 'agreement' was reached with the Japanese the London P.M. fix was exactly 200.00? Don't think that was a coincidence. In addition, did you see the big deal that Almaz made about how they had a maximum of metal to sell BUT were not required to sell it all? Sounds like the bottom of the barrel to me. If we get much above $200 ( 215? ) here its off to the races big time. Since the Japanese 'dissed' Tiger last time I'll bet Julian waits until they beg.

Did you buy any more silver? If I wasn't married I'd bet the whole gd ranch on this one. This gold-bug stuff is fun, you should try it some day.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:10
NJ Spin>(Spin):
Donald : Perhaps, but CNBC reported embargo lifted just minutes before the speech .

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 21:00
RJ 70,000 = Average Day>(70,000 = Average Day):
Aren - The shorts indeed have only paper to back up their position. It appears as if you assume that the longs desire anything else. The vast majority of all commodity transactions are made by traders with no intention of ever delivering, or taking delivery of, the commodity. Its a grand game of trading paper and counting up the winnings and losses every day. The same startling trade/production ratios would apply to any commodity.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:59
Byron @ Jumping Jacks:>(@ Jumping Jacks:):
The gold price on the afterhours quotes on DBC.Com is jumping all over the place. Not quite sure where the afterhours activity ( buying and selling ) is taking place. Glenn: is there trading going on in NY on COMEX at night

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:56
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NJ: They usually hand out the prepared speech text to the press ahead of time with an embargo. That may account for the difference.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:55
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold down 1.40 and Silver down 3 cents....Looks like Greasepans little talk is having an influence on Asia tonight...Scotty: You've been to Nova Scotia but have you been to Cape Breton as Cape Bretoners don't consider themselves to be part of NS...Lobster catch was down 50% this year in our area but the beer is still goooooood....

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:54
nomercy Russia- New gold rules>(Russia- New gold rules):
``Those who are really rich will diversify their savings into gold,'' Khoroshev said. ``But it's too
early to say gold will edge out the dollar as Russians' preferred savings instrument.''

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:53
Skylark Help>(Help):
All: A number of posts mentioned that a rise in gold in a foreign currency is a positive for gold. I do not understand this. Seemingly, since gold is priced in dollars, a rise in the price of gold in a foreign currency can take place merely because of a change in the relative value of the currency to the dollar. I can understand that a foreign investor may wish to buy gold to take advantage of a drop in domestic currency; but if the rise in gold due to currency change does not cause such foreign investment, how does it help the gold in US dollars since supply has not been affected. The rise in the price of gold in a foreign currency would also seemingly make it more expensive in that country which should reduce demand. Therefore, how does this positively affect gold fundamentals. What am I missing?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:52
NJ Spin Doctoring>(Spin Doctoring):
Bridge news reports rally in gold prices petered out on Greenspan's testimony of low inflation. The facts are that selling pressure began 11am and Greenspan's testimony started after 2pm.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:41
nomercy South Africa spin>(South Africa spin):
Gold and the
amnesia problem

No sooner has a thrusting new
generation of bankers declared gold
obsolete than some panic will blow the
world markets apart ... and send the
same bankers scuttling back to their

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:33
Yikes! It looks like someone was listening to me last night. Comex eligible gold stocks jumped 70,000 oz today. Of course, that is only one ounce for each contract traded today. Do you realize that is the equivalent of the annual gold froduction of Nevada in one day! As a friend of mine said, it looks like there is one big pssn contest going on!

I am reposting this from last night by request.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:07
arden ( ) :

DJ - yes there are other sources of deliverable gold. In fact there are 541,663 oz deposited in Comex warehouses right now. BUT, they do not have a contract written against them! It is very much like the Aussie CB selling its gold and then saying, well we can replendish it from the ground because we have all of these reserves. One little minor point THE AUSSIE CB DOESN'T OWN THE GOLD IN THE GROUND!!!!!! Just like the people who have shorted gold on comex do not have any gold on deposit to back them up ( at least 98.5 % of them don't! )

My source for the numbers is the daily news release from the Comex. It comes out about an hour or so after the gold market closes.

My whole point is that the people who have sold gold short have only paper to back them up. With the huge physical demand for the metal and the shortfall with mine production, gold prices have only one direction long term.

You may look at it in the long term. Governments have forced people to give up their gold in exchange for paper. Now the people are giving back the paper for the gold. Yes gold supply is relatively stable, but there is a whole hell of a lot more people now than the 1930's and they all have more paper.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:30
nomercy what will stop the bull>(what will stop the bull):
Asia predicting bigger share of software, hardware computer market
It predicted the US markets would experience
saturation in the next millennium.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:27
the wizard @ oz>(@ oz):
the U.S. dollar is topping out

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:26
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Australian Tech industries call for corporate welfare.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:20
nomercy China economy blasting>(China economy blasting):
..their needs ( oil ) will grow in the second half of this year and first part of '98. Inflation is around the corner.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:14
Scotty lobsters and beer>(lobsters and beer):
Ted......a belated good morning to you! I've been to NS a few times. Gander and Goose, mostly. Landed there in the worst weather, but always had the best food!! Lobsters and beer!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:14
Scotty Hepcat is starting to waffle>(Hepcat is starting to waffle):
John-hepcat.......…here's what you wrote this morning:

[[Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:01
john ( ) :

Scotty - I said that gold would close at $325 +/- $5.
That bet still stands. Don't misrepresent what I said.
Don't insult me. I am not your mark.]]

But, here's what you wrote yesterday:

[[Scotty - This sounds like a great bet, only I would change two things:
1. It's not enough that I get the dollar figure correct. I must be correct
out to two decimal places, and predict where it will be at 20, 10, and
5 minutes before the close.]]

Which is it? An exact decimal place prediction bracketed against a time constraint; or a range of $10 ( $5 on either side of $325 )

How do you propose we take the USD10,000 down?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:13
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Deflation grips Korea. Workers accept pay cuts.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:12
nomercy china-taiwan>(china-taiwan):

Tuesday July 22 1997

Biggest navy exercises
in 30 years staged

The East China Sea Naval Fleet has held its biggest
military drills in more than 30 years north of

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:11
Robert Pringle, Head of World Gold Council strongly criticizes Aussie Central Bank ( RBA ) FOLLY in sale of 2/3s of its gold. Following RBA sale, Under-ground reserves lose $3 billion!!!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 20:04
Barb-ette @barbadoe ranch>(@barbadoe ranch):

A.M. said to A.G.: If you can get it up some more ( stocks of course ) , I'll buy some SPX puts, tee-hee.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 19:54
George Cole>(
GLENN: Your take on things is highly appreciated. I always feel more confident when we are on the same or similar wavelengths.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 19:54
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Read in todays LA times about a sale of a penny for
$50,000. Sounds like a fair exchage rate of the
good stuff for the funny stuff.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 19:53
Este to Aurophile>(to Aurophile):
Your Post @ 19:00. You are certainly viewing the Stock Market not from a goldbug perspective. I agree with you about future corrections, but I don't expect them to go much beyond the usual 10%. As I said before there is still too much pessimism around. Money managers are having convulsions about the state of the market and many of them are openly bearish. This fact alone indicates that higher prices will be seen before the next correction. After today some of this bearishness could dissipate and it will be worth monitoring the situation.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 19:39
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SKYLARK: I think the dollar is strong for the wrong reason. Because it has become, since 1931, the international trade currency. It is used out of habit and because there is no other country or currency willing to take the role. Its strength now seems to be due to the fact that so many debts have been incurred using dollar denominated accounts. In other words, I need dollars so I can pay my bills, not because I think they are good as gold. The demand for dollars is for the wrong reason and that shows me there is trouble ahead. If a viable Yen or Emu block develops the dollar will weaken.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 19:39
Skylark home>(home):
R. Jett: An explanation of the chart would be appreciated.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 19:32
Miro NJ (Greenman) - they won't succeed!>(NJ (Greenman) - they won't succeed!):
NJ at 17:03: The game plan, to postpone the day of reckoning until
after the next elections and let the new administration take the blame.
have no chance to succeed. You can not drag this thing through the year
I believe that they can manage the first correction later this year,
have OK year in 98, but I believe that Y2K bug will bring them down
in 1999. Folks, the US government will not be ready and Y2K compliant
on time and it will impact how they can continue to keep business as

Will they

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 19:29
GFD Martian Thoughts>(Martian Thoughts):
DA: Your 16:29 summs it all up. Face it! All these years of studying markets, economics, world politics and have we got it yet!! Geeze. OF COURSE the Bunds will rally in the face of inflation, even rumoured hyper inflation! Just like the Italian bonds did earlier!! Who ever thought otherwise! What kind of disinformation have we been getting into...

It has been obvious that the proper contrarian position is to be anti contrarian and accept the fact that there is nothing the politicians and the CB's cannot do - including making bunds rise with inflation! :D

Honestly, and I thought that the LBMA was weird..... Well as they say: fact is stranger than fiction.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 19:24
ron jett>(
Greetings folks,

I'd like to offer up a simple chart that might be of interest to some out there that are watching London P.M. Gold. My work suggest that we are about to make a run up. I'm sure that there are many more in the know on this subject - but I've learned much here and so would like to offer this chart. Thanks

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 19:21
GFD Block Thoughts>(Block Thoughts):
Donald: I doubt that we are going to see a gold ruble block any time soon but there do seem to be a lot of people who look like they are keeping a foot in the door of a gold block. Maybe as insurance - a back door out of the now dominant US dollar block.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 19:19
Miro bb fisher (>(bb fisher (
bb fisher at 15:06: be careful when you make judgment about how you
computer will handle Y2K compliance. These test programs will usually
test PC-BIOS behavior which is just one small component of the problem
( more like inconvenience ) . The real problem is in all your software
packages ( or custom developed software ) and these test programs will not
detect such problems.

You may reset the date in your computer ( which comes from BIOS ) after
you restart your computer ( or you may apply software patch to correct
BIOS at start up time, but.. your spreadsheet, database, accounting
software, etc.. may still suffer from Y2K bug, perform incorrect
calculation using dates ( e.g. cash flow, or interest calculation ) ,
put data in incorrect order ( e.g. checks in your ledger ) , and return
incorrect results in many different flavors.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 19:13
aurophile hello@bb>(hello@bb):
BB Fisher: Besides all that cash and gold, the BIS has some lovely real estate in the form of a golden office bulding just a pleasant stroll from the grand Hotel Euler in Basle, where you must stay on your next visit to that charming city.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 19:13
GFD Karburator>(Karburator):
Jack: If I was them would be pissed off too!! :- )

KGB: Vee half Karburators for lend lease trucks! Only 5 ( large ) bars of platinum! Cheap!! Ve are patriotic!! Vill fedex for extra 2 bars... Of course Karburators that work vill require R&D - 10 bars - maybe more....

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 19:07
bb fisher misplaced>(misplaced):
much talk has been made on the forum about BIS ( bank for int. settlements ) as part of the darker forces of the new world order. did any of you know you can become shareholders in said bank? yes perhpas imf and world bank have more sinister motives as transnational corporate front men but the BIS is no enemy to gold or sound finance and until a few years ago few ever even new of their exiistence. become a sahreholder and then get the info from them directly.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 19:06
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
There is monting evidence that the low has been made in Gold and that we should have a rally from here. It may not be a big rally but I think we could see $350 in the fall. I bought a couple Dec335 Calls today. The other traders were more than happy to sell them to me. No-one else on the floor thinks were going to rally and I will admit I wasn't expecting the sell-off on the close and we are now down on access. I do think that we could get down to 319/320 ( basis Aug ) but I really think that would be it.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 19:00
aurophile ww@NE>(ww@NE):
WW: I certainly agree with you that this will all come to and end and a bear market will occur in stocks, bonds, and the dollar with a bull market in gold. I have not bought the parabola to the stars scenario, but neither do I buy the prechterian/internet crash scenario. Inflation creeps back, a bear market of 15-20% happens, and on we go. It will be a rockier road, but more like Boston than Bosnia. All IMHO, naturally.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 18:59
TED @wsf>(@wsf):
WSF: Ignore IT....

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 18:51
gold should benefit some more from the headlong rush out of the dmark. the sfr/dm cross continues to gain despite the fact that the swiss is also falling AND that the DAX is still rising. except for yen and $US, gold has been rising in nearly every world currency. unless there is some concerted currency intervention ( always a danger at such high levels of the $US ) gold should benefit. it should do even better if the dollar turns WITHOUT intervention. this is not to say that bonds and stocks may not continue to do better.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 18:49
WW @NE>(@NE):
AUROPHILE: W/O Rubin this thing would have been over with long ago. However, its prolongation will make it more devastating when it happens. If prolongation of the bubble is the goal Rubin and Greenspan and Wall St CNBC spin doctors they are to be congratulated. They know news follows price and given the precarious debt and currency problems world wide they can not allow price to make news bad and thus adversely effect the much needed continued capital flow to keep ponzi going. Also after a stk mkt crash how popular will be the phrases downsizing efficiency profit reduction in entitlements and personal responsibility. ANS NOT. This is why the financial debacle has so much downside potential as the possibility of how the news will properly get worse is obvious. This is why they are frantic to keep everyone's money flowing in one direction.
Enuf Said NYC was great as was NYMEX!!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 18:42
confucius diogenes>(diogenes):
when the rains stop the sun shines

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 18:40
diogenes to the militaristic emperor>(to the militaristic emperor):
move out of my GOLDen sunshine

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 18:25
aurophile mad@al-folk>(mad@al-folk):
Really, when you come down to it, Alan Greenspan's commission is to do something if inflation or unemployment or a crash gets out of line. Otherwise, as a free marketeer, it's best to stay out of the way. And that's what he's done. And Sec'y Rubin had the brains to pick a boy he could control, and he knew what exactly what needed to be done. And HE's done just that. They may be the two best public servants this country has had since WWII.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 18:17
REB na>(na):
Donald: Russia/China share a common interest - discomfort with post cold-war US hegemony. NATO is now virtually on Russia's Western border, and the US is very much in evidence in Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, etc. And regardless of Russia going to last G-7+ meeting, I doubt Yeltsin or his sucesssors are fond of cowboy boots.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 18:12
WW @NE>(@NE):
I predicted two days ago when Greenspan speaks everything will be great. The fact they ( Wall St ) have to put on this type of dog and pony act testifies to the lengths of manipulation they must undertake to maintain the necessary capital flows into the mutual ponzi GreensPan speaking is the time to create mkt action to suck more money into the bubble! Notice no mention in the controlled press re currency problems overseas as reason for Fri down move/ Gosh darnit it was really because Americans are too optimistic re this unbelievable great economy craeting all those part-time no benefit jobs and record bankruptcies!! HAHA The more they push the agenda the closer the truth reveals itself. Amazing gold was only down .20 today/ IMHO the early rally was created to allow for a late day failure ie the mkt is too oversold to decline without an initial rally. They have no stops to hit ( in fact just the opposite ) so they had to allow gold to rise inintially to create the downside reversal. I think they wanted more than .20 down given the finincial mkt imbalances ( which can not withstand dissappointment ) so gold is looking strong given the fed symbolism of this week. They will no doubt attempt to drive gold down tomorrow. Watching the tape, gold up moves slow the S&P rise. We are on the right side they are throwing everything at it to keep ponzi USA alive.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 18:07
mikeharry all swell>(all swell):
So much for irrational exuberance and over optimism. If you can't beat 'em join 'em, I suppose. Maybe its still the time to blow out the maple leafs and buy Microsoft.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 18:06
Skylark Trade Deficit>(Trade Deficit):
DONALD: Thanks for the reply. Interestingly, I also have not seen any commentary on the trade defict, which should expand with the strengthening dollar, by AG or other major economists. The BIS and IMF seem to have more of a concern. How do see the impact on the dollar.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 18:04
bw Your mission:>(Your mission:):
It is Jan 1995. Your name is Dieter and you are a Swiss national. You have been chosen to head the d project of the o initiative. The o initiative is the councils project to pressure the price of gold to enable the mass acquisition of the various forms of the worlds gold by the right people. The o initiative has these parameters.

o The price of gold is to be forced lower until its acquisition is complete. This may take from two to four years. However all acquistion must be complete by the collapse of the financial bubble ( no later than 1998 ) .

o The principal theme is Gold is becoming worthless, sell now.

o Budget is 2.5 Billion us dollars.

o It is anticipated the price of Gold can be forced to around 300 and held there for at least six months.

o Four projects comprise the working apparatus, General Political, General Propaganda, Central Banks, and Nazi/Swiss.

As head of the Nazi/Swiss project your mission is to tar Gold and Switzerland ( a Gold surrogate ) with negative associations from the Nazi era. Your budget is 200 million dollars. You are authorized to lie/bribe/pander/and commit minor crimes. Major crimes must be approved by and conducted with the council. The council discourages murder and it may be used only if there is no other way to accomplish a major goal.

At first you were not convinced that the initative could succeed, after all the demand for gold was rising and the methods used to hold down its price seemed to be getting fairly obvious. At the same time the financial bubble was getting ready to burst. But the people, brain power, political connections, money and ruthless power controlled by the council soon convinced you that this audacious plan could not only succeed but was inevitable.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 17:41
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SKYLARK: No I have not, but I was out for several hours today and in this area they only broadcast portions. Like Sherlock Holmes and the Hound of Baskerville. The main clue was the dog that did not bark

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 17:31
Skylark Donald>(Donald):
DONALD: From the comments I saw, AG expressed concern about being alert for possible inflation; but I have not seen any commentary over a similar concern for deflation. Have you seen any of his comments where this was discussed.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 17:31
Today's chart looks a little like a silouette of Batman, or is it a false start at a track meet.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 17:30
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NJ: If I am reading this right Jerry Favors is still in the game and on the mark. Instead of July 11, his prediction happened on the 16th and the 16th is still the intraday high as it was not exceeded today.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 17:27
I'm enclosing Barrick earnings report...seems like they're looking acquisitions.

Barrick Gold Corp. Earnings -3: Beat Output, Fincl Targets

Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ) , Toronto, said its first half performance exceeded its production and financial targets set for the period.

The company said while results were lower than a year earlier, its 1997 mine plan calls for higher production and corresponding improvement in financial performance in the second half of the year.

Barrick said cash operating costs in the second quarter were $186 an ounce, dowm from $196 an ounce a year earlier.

It said second quarter gold production was 731,360 ounces, for a six-month total of 1.4 million ounces. It said the Goldstrike Property will significantly increase its production in the second half of the year with a continued strong performance from the Meikle Mine, ensuring the company achieves its 1997 production target of over 3 million ounces.

The company said six-month cash operating costs averaged $191 an ounce, and should decline further with increased low-cost production from Goldstrike, where costs averaged $156 an ounce in the first half.

Barrick said it expects to report higher year-over-year earnings and cash flow for 1997 and to be able to take advantage of opportunities in the current market.

Barrick is a gold mining company.

Dow Jones News Service
Copyright ( c ) 1997, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 17:22
I'm enclosing information on Barrick earnings.
Appears from report they're looking for acquisitions.

Barrick Gold Corp. Earnings -3: Beat Output, Fincl Targets

Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ) , Toronto, said its first half performance exceeded its production and financial targets set for the period.

The company said while results were lower than a year earlier, its 1997 mine plan calls for higher production and corresponding improvement in financial performance in the second half of the year.

Barrick said cash operating costs in the second quarter were $186 an ounce, dowm from $196 an ounce a year earlier.

It said second quarter gold production was 731,360 ounces, for a six-month total of 1.4 million ounces. It said the Goldstrike Property will significantly increase its production in the second half of the year with a continued strong performance from the Meikle Mine, ensuring the company achieves its 1997 production target of over 3 million ounces.

The company said six-month cash operating costs averaged $191 an ounce, and should decline further with increased low-cost production from Goldstrike, where costs averaged $156 an ounce in the first half.

Barrick said it expects to report higher year-over-year earnings and cash flow for 1997 and to be able to take advantage of opportunities in the current market.

Barrick is a gold mining company

Dow Jones News Service
Copyright ( c ) 1997, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 17:21
I'm enclosing information on Barrick earnings.
Appears from report they're looking for acquisitions.

Barrick Gold Corp. Earnings -3: Beat Output, Fincl Targets

Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ) , Toronto, said its first half performance exceeded its production and financial targets set for the period.

The company said while results were lower than a year earlier, its 1997 mine plan calls for higher production and corresponding improvement in financial performance in the second half of the year.

Barrick said cash operating costs in the second quarter were $186 an ounce, dowm from $196 an ounce a year earlier.

It said second quarter gold production was 731,360 ounces, for a six-month total of 1.4 million ounces. It said the Goldstrike Property will significantly increase its production in the second half of the year with a continued strong performance from the Meikle Mine, ensuring the company achieves its 1997 production target of over 3 million ounces.

The company said six-month cash operating costs averaged $191 an ounce, and should decline further with increased low-cost production from Goldstrike, where costs averaged $156 an ounce in the first half.

Barrick said it expects to report higher year-over-year earnings and cash flow for 1997 and to be able to take advantage of opportunities in the current market.

Barrick is a gold mining company

Dow Jones News Service
Copyright ( c ) 1997, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 17:11
NJ Jerry Favors>(Jerry Favors):
Donald : I am not a technician, but this forecast is an interesting read.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 17:09
Donald @Home>(@Home):
GFD: Russia's Central Bank was one of the two major purchasers of gold last year, the other was China. Where they got the money, or their motive is still a mystery. Are we on the verge of a gold ruble bloc?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 17:03
NJ Greenman>(Greenman):
All: Let's not blame Greenspan. He is under orders to do and say what Rubin tells him. Rubin has already spoken about contingency plans being in place to contain the aftermath of a crash. They know what's coming. The game plan is to postpone the day of reckoning until after the next elections and let the new administration take the blame. Will they succeed?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 17:00
Donald @Home>(@Home):
ANYONE: From a technical point of view. The Dow was a new high but not an intraday high. Is that considered a technical failure?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 17:00
George Cole gold and stocks>(gold and stocks):
All: Bullion gave up its morning gains but still acted prettty well considering Alan's testimony and surging markets around the world. Not quite ignoring the bad news but taking it pretty well. A good omen for the metals and a bad omen for paper.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 16:54
TED @tort>(@tort):
Hey Tort! Good one....about Vegas...I mean!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 16:40
TED @greasepan>(@greasepan):
Auroelf ( 16:11 ) I think you are right on the money....after today Greasepan won't want people to get too exuberant or maybe even IRRATIONAL
....Hi Novice!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 16:29
D.A. in.the.price>(in.the.price):

He certainly has in the past, but it looks like this time he's just thrown in the towel, or gotten long SPU's. Maybe another 25 SP points on the upside tomorrow, with the DM heading for 2 and thier bonds rallying, and EMU starting on time with Poland, Estonia, and Croatia meeting the new relaxed criteria, and everything else just humming along. Our worldwide elected officials have done it this time, they've solved all the problems and everyone is going to be rich.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 16:11
auroelf Greenspan>(Greenspan):
D.A.: Don't count your chickens yet. This Fed chairman has a history of using Day 2 of his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to show the other side of what he said on Day 1, especially if there was a big market reaction to Day 1. Stay tuned.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 16:09
Jack IMF>(IMF):

a reader ( 15:27 ) May be a sign that Thialand don't
wanna join the NWO. Better being poor and destitute than selling your soul.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 16:07
Jack IMF>(IMF):

a reader ( 15:27 ) May be a sign that Thialand don't wanna join the NWO. Better being poor and destitute than paying the selling your soul.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 15:57
Uris @DFW Airport>(@DFW Airport):
John the hepcat; A lot of us on this site would like you to answer this question, Is it dark where your head is ?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 15:55
Jack Ask KGB>(Ask KGB):

GFD ( 15:45 ) Maybe KGB is pissed off about the karburator and passed the info along to BT.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 15:54
D.A. a.prediction>(a.prediction):

Having read the press accounts of Mr. Greenspans testimony and witnessed the action in the financial markets in response, tommorows piece by Steve Roach over at Morgan Stanley should be worth saving. Mr. Roach was a researcher at the Fed for many years and was betting that this time around Al would stand up and make the case that by all the measures available to them the economy was growing at a pace well above its long term sustainable trend. This, if one believes 'classical' economics will produce inflation, if left alone. That Al came out and in Roach's parlance 'embraced the new paradigm' hook, line and sinker has got to have sent Roach into shock. Perhaps tomorrow there will be another gold bug added to our ranks.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 15:46
Jack Baloney on both>(Baloney on both):

Ark: ( 13:49 ) ; Check ( 17:15 -7/21 ) post by R. Burke. He seems to have good handle on the process. Best to querry him from time to time.
Donald: Next thing you know Mother Teresa will be blamed for hiding nazi gold.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 15:46
George Cole Florida>(Florida):
Byron; Amen!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 15:45
GFD 24 Hr Warning>(24 Hr Warning):
Someone alleging to be Big Trader made a post ( 11:29 ) and it sort of sounds like him. If it IS the BT of legend there is a high probability of a price spike within the next 24 hrs.

The alleged post is as follows: russia is the key japan is a sideshow the bull is charging in the form of a bear ..uplink severed..

Just out of curiosity does anyone have an even vague idea why russia should be a strong force in gold - or anything else for that matter ( except, of course, bankruptcy ) .

It is very hard to say if any of the BT posts over the last few months are actually from the BT of the beginning of the year. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 15:40
Byron @ No Problems:>(@ No Problems:):
Auroelf: Thanks. It good to know that everything is hoonkey-doordery ( sic )

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 15:36
Byron @ The Sky's The Limit:>(@ The Sky's The Limit:):
Will someone please tell me whatever happened to irrational exhurberance Well as least the Gold Indexes are holding. Good sign from the gods.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 15:34
George Cole Dow rally>(Dow rally):
All: Looks like we're getting that Dow rally towards 8300 I projected last week. This postpones the gold bull a litle longer. But just a little. Big trend changes coming next month.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 15:29
auroelf Greenspan: Economy slowing>(Greenspan: Economy slowing):
Byron: Here's what he'd said so far.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 15:27
a reader @ his desk>(@ his desk):
from the Los Angeles Times, section D, p. 1, 07/22/97; via 'The Washington Post', Paul Blustein, reporting ::
Top IMF Official Warns Thailand to Act Quickly
ECONOMY: Blunt words reflect fears that the coutry, which refused to seek a loan, could set off a serious global financial crisis.
Washington: A top official of the International Monetary Fund said Thailand must quickly shore up its troubled financial system and cut government spending to defuse an economic crisis that has shaken currency and stock markets across three contents. .... ( cont'd. ) ... .

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 15:06
bb fisher>(
for those of you who want to know if your computers will handle millenium 2000 compliance i have a tiny 3k program which when double clicked will give you the exact status of your machine. you don't even have to install it. email for a zip file

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 15:05
Donald @Home>(@Home):
RON: Re the Vatican. There is an old saying that says nothing is official until it is officially denied

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 15:01
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
40% Richer: Liked the Chicken Counting article. Thanks for posting it. I haven't seen Slate before . . . Nice 'zine.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 14:59
2 @the_crossroads>(@the_crossroads):
MoreGold:$100/hr in Europe! That in itself tells you that already it is a crisis to some people. But, right now, it is _possible_ that ( we ) programmers hold the key to the future of civilization.

DA- I understand your skepticism and I share it. I remember the crisis of oil well fires after the Gulf War, which proved to be greatly overstated. Overstating potential crises is fashionable. However, as someone in the software field, I tell you, NOBODY BUT NOBODY EVER UNDERESTIMATES THE AMOUNT OF WORK INVOLVED IN A SOFTWARE TASK!! In my view, these are balancing factors.

You cannot see inside a computer graphically the way you can see a building or a bridge. Nor do programs rest upon anything as firm as land. They are chimerical, imaginary constructions, with a ruthless and unforgiving appetite for superhuman precision. For these and other reasons the best estimates are crippled with a high degree of variability. Union bricklayers lay brick at a pace that stays within a relatively small range; if one leaves, one takes his place. Not so with software engineers. Hills and mountains and traffic patterns are much more constant, more tangible, visible, and measurable than the mercurial frontier of information technology.

Do I have any idea how this will play out? No idea, no prediction. This is the point: If so many knowledgeable individuals, many with no ATG ( axe to grind ) are convinced that it is huge, the issue has substance, IMHO.

Relevant to gold? I think so.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 14:54
WSF Sorry>(Sorry):
Regulars: I have read and enjoyed this site for many months, and I feel like I know many of you. My entering into a 'cat fight' was a mistake- I've been ignoring him as much as possible and hoping others would do the same. I felt compelled after he piled in on Ted. I will do as I hope you all will do- ignore felines.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 14:50
Donald: Many thanks - veRRRRRRRRRRRy inteRRRRRRRRRResting.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 14:38
yellowdog @truce please!>(@truce please!):
This used to be a decent and interesting forum, but all the bickering of late has taken its toll.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 14:26
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
The major problem with Hepcat is that he was right with 3-2-5 and the regulars were wrong. Whiners should stop and contemplate how little they would have to say if his manner did not allow a self justifying angry retort to his highlighting of current embarrassments.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 14:16
MoreGold @heppster>(@heppster):
Heppster: Stop wasting Kitco space. Most readers are ignoring your postings anyway, but its really becomming annoying to have to scroll over
your diatribes.
If you do not have any meaningfull new contribution to make, then zipp it up....

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 14:16
Byron @ Live Update:>(@ Live Update:):
So far, from the action in the financial markets, it appears that Mr. Greenspan has decided to spike the punch bowl one more time and give everyone a new high.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 14:11
Ron Vatican Denies Holding Nazi Gold>(Vatican Denies Holding Nazi Gold):

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 14:08
bb fisher i for one@am>(i for one@am):


fill me in what i obviously have missed. you predicted gold would drop to
dare i say, 3-2-5.... last year when most if not all of us saw only a limited downside to bullions correction. that much we agree upon.

i believe, correct if i am wrong, that you now predict gold will continue to succumb to gravity on its journey towards 100 buck the ounce sometime in the next few years. are we on the same page so far?

i have no interest in arguing whatsoever. i would simply like to know the logical processes that have brought you to conclude golds journey is no where near done. clearly if the methods that told to call 3-2-5 last year are still at work i for one would like to hear the logic and charts.

if a public discourse is not acceptable for whatever reason please email me at

all this bile is detracting from the theories you clearly have about gold.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 14:01
Here's the kind of thing you need to hear about your shares in gold
mining companies. Just received from Wayne Hubert, Investor Relations,
Meridian Gold: ...has not sold any of its gold forward, and is well
positioned to participate in upward movements in the gold price.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 13:54
wildflower @no thorns>(@no thorns):

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 13:51
WSF Try decaf>(Try decaf):
John: Calm down, yikes! I can't answer the question you posed, because in order to , I'd have to find someone who had listened to you, or have a listing of what you'd said. I don't have such a listing, although I can guess that if I did, it would be accurate and obnoxious. Get a grip! Are you really this distasteful, or are you like drivers who, inside the protection of their cars, feel free to be anti-social in ways they'd never be outside of their car? In either case, I'm glad I'm not you.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 13:49
ark salt>(salt):
Opps. I'll try again:

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 13:49
Donald @Home>(@Home):

This site claims to have information about the private ownership of precious metals in Russia. I had a devil of a time finding it. Some in English, some in Russian.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 13:44
Mike Sheller @Mary-Rose, is a Rose, is a Rose...>(@Mary-Rose, is a Rose, is a Rose...):
Wish to correct Mary-Rose's Mon 23:25 - She said I predicted a correction of the Dow to 5150 beginning July 28. That prediction was from an interview I did at Gold-Eagle with natural resource & mining entrepreneur/astrologer Chad C. Meek. That was his prediction. Of course, if he is right, I would be happy to mistakenly take the credit!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 13:43
ark saltedcore@bre.chz>(saltedcore@bre.chz):
Anyone see the Abx news that they can produce gold at $55/oz? Comments?
see at

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 13:41
Novice @Old Ironsides>(@Old Ironsides):
With the mother of all battles ongoing in gold, Bart's 24-hr spot price chart looks like the Matterhorn. On another front, Stillwater currently up 3+% and NA Palladium up 5 1/2+%.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 13:39
Robert W @re isp problems, net problems>(@re isp problems, net problems):
Donald: you are not alone

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 13:38
All the News Fit to Print - and then some. If it isn’t reported in our Daily News section, it “AIN’T” happened yet! From the USA & CANADA ( 24 ) , Europe ( 12 ) , South Africa ( 2 ) , Asia ( 14 ) , Australia ( 7 ) & South America ( 15 ) :

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 13:36
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Are we having worldwide net problems? Lots of URL's are down,including Kitco most of the time. Is it just me?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 13:21
I'm no technical expert, but I don't see the bottom on this chart that looks at ( mostly senior ) mining companies over the last 5 years. Can someone interpret the data for me? Thanks.


Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 13:16
Steve - Perth>(
Yesterday the Black Cockatoos ( Aussie Birds ) were flying in from the North. Rain is on it's way in a day or so. It is warmer at night now with a bit of cloud cover for a change. Cold without it!! The insomniac is off to bed. I should not have had that McFeast thing for dinner tonight. Disgusting.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 13:06
confucius to his followers>(to his followers):
each stick on his own will be broken
a bundle will stand strong

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 12:57
WSF - Since I don't know anyone who listened to you
What does that mean

{FLASHBACK: NASA reported scientists landed on the moon today.
However, since WSF didn't know any of the astronauts personally,
this event is probably insignificant}

{FLASHBACK: Martin Luther King was shot in Memphis today. However,
since a significant portion of the population really didn't have a vested
interest in what he said or did anyhow, his life or death probably won't
have much of an impact}

Multiple times on this site, people have said: Well, yeah, you were right,
but no one listened to you, so it doesn't make a difference.

If you are poking yourself in the eye with a stick and I suggest Hey, if
you continue to do that to yourself, you could really damage your vision,
it is a really effective comeback after you have blinded
yourself to say, Yeah, you were right, but I didn't listen, so really your
advice was equivalent to being wrong? Who is the person with a slippery hold
on reality? Who is the person who would be wise not to emulate the other?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 12:44
jm help>(help):
I'm new here..I just want to know what is hot today and the target..!!Less than 2$ ( junior ) thanks!!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 12:36
TED @canada>(@canada):
A beautiful day on the high seas with Loons galore....Dow ( up 54 ) bein pretty bold considering Greasepan speaks shortly...XAU up 1.65...

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 12:34
WSF Magna-what?>(Magna-what?):
I have disdained your meanness ( to others ) for quite some time. I believe that makes me magnanimous, at least for a while. Since I don't know anyone who listened to you, and I didn't offer my advice to anyone, your question is not well-posed. I did quite nicely, in spite of being wrong ( or early ) about the big macro picture. But even if I had lost my shirt, I'd still be thankful that I'm not you.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 12:27
D.A.. what month you lookin at U or Z u is what I was looking at

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 12:23
capnkev @YUP>(@YUP):
D.A.....funny you should say that 'bout Oats was checkin it out last night, went long on beans,
Thanks D.A.
cheers ( clink ) Kev

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 12:22
Steve - Perth @competition.for.George.Soros?>(@competition.for.George.Soros?):
From Australian Financial Review 23rd July
IS THIS another sign of a market nearing its high?
Henry Kaufman, the legendary Dr Gloom from his days
at Salomon Brothers in the 1980s, is teaming up with
another well-known bond bear, economist Chuck
Lieberman from Chase Manhattan, to start up their own
hedge fund.

The two will be joined be another Chase economist,
blonde Sally Kleinman -- the hedge fund is known on
Wall Street as Goldilocks and the two bears.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 12:21

WSF - Given that you've done so well, why the absence of magnanimity?
Please listen to my question again, WSF, and don't refer to 1993, because
last year was not 1993, and no one could post on thie site in 1993: Over the last year, who did better - People who listened to you, or people who listened to me?
That was the question, WSF, and if you still fail to comprehend the question,
then I sure don't want to be like you either, cause you could have Alzheimer's.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 12:11
WSF Still Thankful>(Still Thankful):
Since 1993, when I first purchased gold shares, my shares have on average doubled, based on current prices. Given that I sold at higher prices and repurchased at lower ( albeit higher than todays ) , my returns are yet higher. A better than double in four years is, by conventional standards, quite admirable, particularly if you believe, as I do, that you are exposed to much less downside risk than by being long the SPX.
So I've had a bad year- I can still get out ahead - and I'm still thankful I'm not you.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:59
D.A. at.the.feed.trough>(at.the.feed.trough):

Don't know if you care but our long only system got a buy signal on Oats for this AM. First grains we've owned since the spring.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:55
D.A. a.number.worth.watching>(a.number.worth.watching):

As our EMU friends devalue their way to glory it is worth keeping an eye on the price of gold in DM. We are approaching the key level of 600 ( 1.82 * 330 ) . A break above that level and subsequently over 613 will herald a multiyear breakout ( to the upside ) .

Someone posted an article here about the possible DM printing explosion which would occur in the transitional EMU years. This is a very interesting thought and one that bears great investigation.

Meanwhile, as the Europeans devalue their currencies their bond markets can not get enough of it. Most extraordinary.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:54
Steve - Perth>(
Give you a tip: DON'T MESS with Dr. Mahathir of Malaysia. He is a pretty switched on dude. Highly respected, & has a good head on him. Give me Mahathir over Soros ANY day!! At the good Dr is creating jobs for people

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:52
bb fisher mr hepcat@com>(mr hepcat@com):
to all:

the newer tone of mr hepcat is much more pleasing to read. less back slapping and more information.. perhaps a bit smugly presented but a nice improvement nontheless.

more info, a larger peek into your intellect and less 3-2-5 rant and you will have made a kitco, kitcat convert in me!

for those of you who think i just did the equivalent of spitting on mother teresa.

i see a change and am pleased to acknowledge it.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:51
Does anyone know if Fort Knox actually has any GOLD left. I seem to remember that it was moved to storage vaults in New York.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:50
International Analyst, James Dines Rule of Gold Countertrend says: The price of gold tends to move generally opposite to the rest of the stock market. See July 21, 1997 Study at:

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:46

Sirocco - Tears of laughter are streaming down my face as I write this.
( Cherokee - I love you was the catalyst ) . I don't know if I should
attack you as Sirocco or as Sirocco nee TED.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:44
So'Ham Short Selling Pages/Sites>(Short Selling Pages/Sites):
Jin : I read thefollowing article from the archives of Webzine Worth . This is a good starting point for anyone who's interested in short-selling. It's a pity that it is virtually not possible to short sell in Down Under Australia.

Worth - June 1996

Live Short and Prosper by Susan Lee

Paul Asquith and Lisa Meulbroek investigated short selling between 1976 and 1993. ( Reminder: Short selling describes the funny practice of borrowing stock, selling it, waiting for its price to go down, and then purchasing it to pay back the lender; the profit comes in the spread between the price at which it's sold and the price at which it's bought back. ) Asquith and Meulbroek's paper An Empirical Investigation of Short Interest, released in 1995, argues that there is a strong negative relationship between the amount of short selling in a stock and the stock's subsequent performance. Simply put, stocks that attract short-sellers are more likely to go down than up.

Moreover, in the 18-year period Asquith and Meulbroek observed, returns were even more negative for firms that were heavily shorted for more than a month, both for the time the stocks were shorted and for the following two years.

This is an interesting result.

First, because it flies in the face of the conventional wisdom that short sales are a bullish--not bearish--indicator because they indicate future demand; that is,
short-sellers must eventually buy shares to replace their borrowed shares in order to cover their positions. Second, because it proves what some people have been
saying all along--that short-sellers really do know what they're doing.

Third, and most important, this study gives credence to the commonsense idea that since brokers and analysts pay much more attention to reasons for buying stocks than for selling, there is more positive than negative news. Thus, stocks about which there is negative information represent an inefficient part of the market, making it easier to find profitable opportunities on the short side than on the long.

So why don't more investors sell stocks short?

First, regulations governing short selling make it more difficult than buying long. There is something called the uptick ( or plus tick ) rule, which decrees that a short sale can occur only at a price above the last sale price. There's also a zero-tick rule, which says that a short sale can occur at a price equal to the last sale price, but only if the last price change was positive. In other words, you can't sell short if your target stock is going down. Then, there are so-called prudent-investor rules that prohibit big institutional investors, like public pension plans, from selling short altogether.

Second, short selling is more expensive than buying long. Money from a short sale is not available to the seller but is escrowed as collateral for the owner of the borrowed shares. ( Although large short-sellers may receive interest payments, called rebates, on the sale proceeds, small investors usually do not. ) In addition to the proceeds that stay as collateral, short-sellers must deposit 50 percent of the market value of the shorted shares as a margin requirement. If the price of the stock goes up, the short-seller will get a margin call and must deposit more funds.

Also, short-sellers must reimburse the owner of the stock for any dividends that accrue during the period the shares are borrowed. What's more, there is a tax penalty on success. Even if the short position is held for more than a year, profits are subject to the short-term capital-gains tax, which can be more than 11 percent higher than the long-term capital-gains rate.

Third, short selling is considered dangerous. When you take a long position in a stock, the greatest risk is that it will fall to zero and you will lose all the money you paid. Your worst loss is known and bounded. When you take a short position, however, the greatest risk is that the price of the stock will rise forever-meaning there is, theoretically at least, no limit on your loss.

There is also a danger, especially in a rising market, that at some point you will be unable to meet a margin call and have to purchase your stocks at a loss, before
your short position yields a profit. What's more, shorts are vulnerable to a squeeze--a deliberate attempt by investors who are long in the company to reduce the lendable supply of shares by madly buying them and demanding delivery. This pushes up the price and forces the unfortunate short into the market to buy shares at the higher price.

And finally, short selling has an image problem. A bad image problem. After all, short-sellers are hoping for failure and misfortune. This leads to the somewhat hysterical charge that shorts are betting against America.

Sounds scary and unsavory, huh? Nonetheless, there are good reasons to sell short.

The interesting thing about selling short is that you can do well by doing good. A short-seller does well by investing in an inefficient part of the market--where
negative information is not widely and rapidly known--and makes money by exploiting this inefficiency.

And you can do good because your short sale conveys negative information and thus makes pricing more efficient. Consider: All opinions should be reflected in prices. But when optimists buy and pessimists do nothing, there is an upward bias on prices. When pessimists sell, that upward bias is corrected.

Just as important, short selling can be used to control risk. If your portfolio is 100 percent long, you are totally exposed to the risk inherent in a falling market. If,
however, some part of your portfolio is in short positions--stocks that will make money for you when the market falls--you have hedged your market risk. If the market goes up, however, you will make money on your long positions but lose money on your shorts.

This is, in fact, the classic hedge-fund strategy discovered independently and at about the same time by Robert Wilson and A. W. Jones. Back in the late 1950s, Wilson wanted an approach that would allow him to leverage without being forced to sell at a bad moment. The worst time to sell is when the market is declining, he says. I wanted to buy shares on margin, sure, but I didn't want my holdings destroyed in a market crash.

His solution was to create a portfolio of long and short positions. Then, if his longs collapsed, the profits on his short position would meet his margin calls and vice
versa. Wilson, though known as a legendary short-seller, was always net long in his portfolio. He picked strong growth stocks for his long positions and vulnerable
companies for his shorts.

Another reasonable motive for short selling is that--difficult though it is to believe after the last several years--the stock market does go down. And when it does, the weak sisters implode. Bill McGarr of the McGarr Fund, for example, runs a 100 percent short portfolio. Currently, he's pessimistic on the most popular investment idea of 1995--technology stocks. We invest in excess, he says. Technology has been bid up the most, and it will be bid down the most.

Convinced? Well, before you rush out to open a margin account ( the only kind of account in which you can sell stocks short ) , here are some ploys to keep you out
of deep water.

*Even though a margin account gives you the opportunity to leverage, don't do it. McGarr, for instance, tries to keep the value of his shorts equal to the amount of
equity in his partnership. ( Keeping your account in balance also avoids what almost all short-sellers agree is a hideous experience--getting a margin call from your broker. )

*Limit your losses to a set percentage of your portfolio. Typically, when a particular position does more than 2 to 3 percent worth of damage, short-sellers reduce
that position pronto.

*Be prepared to close your position if there is a change in the fundamentals on which that position was based. A dramatic surprise calls for dramatic action.

*Confine your shorts to large-capitalization, liquid stocks to avoid getting short-squeezed.

*Forget about timing. The uptick and zero-tick rules prohibit shorting a falling stock, so resign yourself to being early in your strategy.

You can also short mutual funds. Yes, mutual funds. Currently, there are two opportunities. Fidelity allows short selling against some of its Select Portfolio funds,
such as American Gold, Automotive, Biotechnology, Energy, Environmental Services, Food and Agriculture, Health Care, Medical Delivery, Precious Metals and Minerals, Regional Banks, Telecommunications, and Utilities Growth. And Jack White & Co., a broker-dealer, offers short selling on about 20 mutual funds, including the Janus Fund and the Founders funds.

One final note. Just because a particular stock has lots of short interest doesn't necessarily mean adios for the company. Presstek, a printing-process company, has
been a fave with the shorts. Indeed, it has been heavily shorted for the past three years, during which time it has gone from about $8.50 a share in June 1993 to $108 as of April 1 this year. Adios, shorts.

Contributing editor Susan Lee writes Mind Your Own Business monthly. She is an economist and author of Hands Off! Why the Government Is a Menace to Economic Health, just published by Simon & Schuster. E-mail her at

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:43
Steve - Perth're.gonna.get.caught>('re.gonna.get.caught):
D.A: Re: French Porn accidentally screened on Arab Kids TV show.
A few years ago during the sleepy Aussie summer months, while everyone was watching cricket, the screens suddenly switched to a full on blue
movie. We think the guys in the master control room at Channel 9, ( Perth or Sydney ) were watching it, & flicked it onto broadcast mode by mistake. The ratings sky-rocketed for a few minutes....

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:43
So'Ham Short Sellign Pages/Sites>(Short Sellign Pages/Sites):
Jin : I read thefollowing article from the archives of Webzine Worth . This is a good starting point for anyone who's interested in short-selling. It's a pity that it is virtually not possible to short sell in Down Under Australia.

Worth - June 1996

Live Short and Prosper by Susan Lee

Paul Asquith and Lisa Meulbroek investigated short selling between 1976 and 1993. ( Reminder: Short selling describes the funny practice of borrowing stock, selling it, waiting for its price to go down, and then purchasing it to pay back the lender; the profit comes in the spread between the price at which it's sold and the price at which it's bought back. ) Asquith and Meulbroek's paper An Empirical Investigation of Short Interest, released in 1995, argues that there is a strong negative relationship between the amount of short selling in a stock and the stock's subsequent performance. Simply put, stocks that attract short-sellers are more likely to go down than up.

Moreover, in the 18-year period Asquith and Meulbroek observed, returns were even more negative for firms that were heavily shorted for more than a month, both for the time the stocks were shorted and for the following two years.

This is an interesting result.

First, because it flies in the face of the conventional wisdom that short sales are a bullish--not bearish--indicator because they indicate future demand; that is,
short-sellers must eventually buy shares to replace their borrowed shares in order to cover their positions. Second, because it proves what some people have been
saying all along--that short-sellers really do know what they're doing.

Third, and most important, this study gives credence to the commonsense idea that since brokers and analysts pay much more attention to reasons for buying stocks than for selling, there is more positive than negative news. Thus, stocks about which there is negative information represent an inefficient part of the market, making it easier to find profitable opportunities on the short side than on the long.

So why don't more investors sell stocks short?

First, regulations governing short selling make it more difficult than buying long. There is something called th

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:36
D.A. whew!>(whew!):

Your post prompted me to do a quick check on the system that runs our commodities and currency trading. Besides doing the actual signal generation it keeps track of positions, produce P&L's, faxes orders, lots of neat analytical reports, and a variety of other junk. I started work on this system in 1988. Much to my great relief my system is Y2K compliant already. A close examination of the code which deals with dates in the system reveals that had I not written it to accomodate dates beyond the year 2000 it would have required 1 line of code to repair the damage. Something like 'if year less than 25 year equals year plus 100' Interestingly enough my databases suffer from the exact symptoms of Y2k disease, namely 2 byte storage for the year. However, 2 bytes is large enough to store a positive integer greater than 65000. Many years indeed. Before you point out the obvious flaw that this fix will break anything which needs a date prior to 1925 ( like a birthday ) I will counter that a system written without the ability to span centuries would have failed from day one, as there are many people still alive that were born before 1900.

This whole idea that there are scads of giant financial institutions each with hundreds of millions of lines of 30 year old code just waiting to crash is silly. This problem has had so much press that surely an effort to fix it is already well under way. In addition, people will also likely focus their efforts on those systems that are of the highest priority.

As far as the financial systems go, there is great centralization which limits the number of systems which have to be examined or repaired in order that the backbone of the transaction processing world is secure. Consider that in the U.S. securities industry all of the share balances held by clearing firms are held at the Depository Trust Company. All the firms which clear securities ( low hundreds? ) must be transactionally compliant with this institution. In addition, even though there are ( guessing here ) a hundred clearing firms there are very few software packages available for the job. The point of this is that all the software which is responsible for clearing all the security trading in the U.S. is probably limited to few packages distributed to perhaps a 100 clearing houses plus centralized software at DTC. ( I know something of this stuff because I did a management consulting job for Quick & Reilly seven years ago examining and making recomendations with regards to their entire systems infrastructure )

I have no doubt that there will be some problems associated with this bug, but to place a large amount of credence in the musings of someone that advises 'moving away from urban centers where the mainframes are located' is perhaps unwarranted.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:35
Reader @>(@):

The German stock market is up 3%! What the heck is that all about?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:31
Sirocco @hot.air>(@hot.air):
Good morning. Comex report: Gold up 2.50567, Silver up 7.25678 cents,and Platinum up 16.50784...
Tort: Great Joke....
Cherokee: I love you...
John HepCat: get lost....
Going for a walk along the ocean... beautiful day... windy... few fair weather clouds... Beans for lunch... EBN gold up 2.75 !!!!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:29
BIG TRADER last warning>(last warning):

russia is the key japan is a sideshow the bull is charging in the form of a bear ..uplink severed..

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:27
40% Richer Chicken counting orgy>(Chicken counting orgy):

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:25
Nick @ Aussie>(@ Aussie):
Major economic essay at

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:18
Steve - Perth>(
CHEROKEE: Re: your email on DOW 8000 ( updated ) , can be found at
Also, I have a suspicion the Australian Financial Review may want to
reprint the skeptical investor column, which I forwarded on to them.
Just a hunch!!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:17
MoreGold @YEAR2000>(@YEAR2000):
2weeks: I don't know how bad things will get as we near 2000, but I predict there will be a major shortage of programmers in Europe. They are much further behind in this work than in America.
Current rates for contract programmers here are up to USD $100. and hour.
I am not taking any long term contracts into 1998, since rates may
be much higher, all depending on how far behind large corporations are in their year 2000 conversions. They will have little choice but to pay whatever the going market rate will be, to avoid systems failures.
Some have speculated at $500. / hour in 98/99.
Companies will also have to pay large bonusses to avoid employees from defecting.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:14
BillD Kitco's Filter>(Kitco's Filter):
Boy, I sure could use that filter this morning...sick of rat-cat!!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:13
Pizza Man at the ball park>(at the ball park):
Ladies and Gentlemen give a warm round of applause for the next
designated hitter George Soros? Raaaaw Raaaaw!
Or is this just the results of rollover for August short positions?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:04
Old Gold message from Mars>(message from Mars):
Andy Smith: The Martians are coming to get you!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:02

WSF - This is an investment site, not a amateur psychoanalysis site.
The bottom line is: Who came out ahead over the last year with regards
to money - People who listened to you, or people who listened to me?
Do you have any other excuses for why you didn't sell your gold stocks?
Maybe because it is a cleansing experience to be poor?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:58
Platinum futures UP $13.70, Palladium UP $9, however cannot get a current read on latter -it may be up even more. Anyone have real-time quote on PA?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:58

Vronsky - Please, you are becoming increasingly strident.
The U.S. Platinum coin you mention is a limited edition 1 ounce proof Eagle coin,
the first in a proposed series. Where in your post do you point out it is a proof
coin, far different from bullion platinum? The mint could have charged double
for it and it would have sold out. It has absolutely no bearing on the price of
platinum, nor is it a reflection of the current platinum market.
A 1913 Liberty nickel sold for over 1 million dollars at auction recently.
Does this mean that the price of nickel is going up to $3-4 million/ounce?
Get serious. Post fact and not fantasy. You're as bad as those
Family of Eagles shills, selling 1/10 ounce gold Eagles for $70.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:50
Donald @Home>(@Home):
2 WEEKS: My son is a programmer at the U.S. Patent Office working on that very problem, before that he was at NIH in Bethesda on the same thing. I am involved with a small operation that needs $24,000 of hardware upgrade BEFORE it can tackle the software part. Barron's did a piece on how MIS budgets will be spent on this problems and not available for a lot of hardware that can be postponed. The market has ignored the warnings.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:45
WSF be thankful>(be thankful):
It is unfortunate that a boorish sociopath should make things so unpleasant for the majority of us. One referring to himself as hepcat speaks volumes. I may be down on my gold stocks, but I am ever thankful that I am not him.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:44
vronsky TWO DOWN, TWO TO GO - U.S. Mint Prices Platinum at $695/oz >(TWO DOWN, TWO TO GO - U.S. Mint Prices Platinum at $695/oz ):
Platinum UP $8, Palladium UP LIMIT ( $8 ) & U.S. Mint sells out ONE OUNCE PLATINUM COIN FOR $696! One Ounce $695! REread TWO DOWN, TWO TO GO for future gold action:

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:40
2 Bless ya, granny!>(Bless ya, granny!):
( Donald - I don't know Louis W. Thanks for asking. )

Sample Y2K prediction: You will not have a salaried job on March 1, 2001.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:40
Reify @are U watching?>(@are U watching?):
Pleae don't tease, just SQUEEEEEEZE!!!
It looked like it was going to correct for a few days, but lo and behold, it's moving up.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:38
LSteve @work>(@work):

You need to do that sea kayaking more often. This works as well as your beach walks.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:37
John N. Retearivs sed non felix hepatici>(Retearivs sed non felix hepatici):

I love the smell of singed shorts in the morning!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:27
Senator Blutarsky Retired>(Retired):

2 Weeks--I had a similar thought. What about the upcoming time when Greenspan will become a lame duck? I doubt he will serve a fourth term. A new Federal Reserve Chairman will be at the helm in August 1999. That's about two years away.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:25
Donald @Home>(@Home):
2 WEEKS: Do you know Louis Whitcomb at Johns Hopkins? That was a good post. I know of what you speak.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:19
Granny Morning on the farm>(Morning on the farm):
Ham and eggs cooking, the dog is barking at the reds out by the north barn, and gold is up!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:19
BillD PM are hot this morning>(PM are hot this morning):
Well...somebody is buying all the PM's this morning...look at Pa..up $8.20 and Pl up over $ up, si up....looks like a good day for Ted to go Kayaking, huh..

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:19

2 - I went to my mailbox. I did not find any food, water, electricity,
clothing, sunlight, recreation, or others of my species I found only enough air to sustain me for a few hours, and a little bit of dirt clung to my index finger when
I drug it across the bottom. I can conclude one of two things:
1. I cannot live in my mailbox.
2. The contents of my mailbox have nothing to do with continued survival,
unless all mailboxes are programmed to violently explode in the
year 2000.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:18
vronsky Gold & Silver Future Good - BUT DOW BEAR TO BEGIN JULY 28>(Gold & Silver Future Good - BUT DOW BEAR TO BEGIN JULY 28):
Astrological Investor interviews expert energy & mining industry entrepreneur/astrologer, who foresees Precious Metals Bull, but Wall Street Bear. SEE Astrological Investor: -

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:17
Donald @Home>(@Home):
I go out for an hour to do some errands and gold is up three bucks. Does anyone need any errands done? I'll be glad to help.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:06
2 That's short for 2weeks>(That's short for 2weeks):

Very nice Y2K link. Y2K = year 2000. On Jan 1, 2000, many computers will not know whether it is 1900 or 2000 ( simplistic explanation ) . I believe that anticipation of the world Y2K crisis is already affecting gold prices ( slightly ) . If the problem is increasingly perceived as severe, AU will respond accordingly. I am a professional software engineer with an MS from Johns Hopkins. I cannot tell you whether the world financial system will crumble as a result of the Y2K issue. I do not work on it. But I will say this - many of those who have thoroughly investigated the matter believe that it will. Others believe the storm will be weathered.

It is increasingly the practice of analysts to attempt to gain advantage by looking as far as possible down the tunnel of time. In that light, any equation that predicts the direction of AU prices _must_ incorporate Y2K considerations. It is not that far away! Those with a vested interest in the continuance of civilization have every reason to PR the problem down to a minimum, of course.

Y2K represents a tangible justification for the doomsayers. At the stroke of midnight 12/31/99, we all will have a date with the fair Cassandra.

There are millions of lines of code to be fixed, and only a few hundred days left. You see, software is a strange substance. More valuable than gold - one line of it, 40 characters or so, costs anywhere from $10 to $500. Just one line! With a weight of far less than a gram. Infinitely malleable. Powerful enough to launch a nuclear weapon. It bows only to DNA ( which is just living software ) . And billions and billions of lines of it rule our lives.

Go to your mailbox. Is there anything there that was not generated by a computer? These dinosaurs - are they prepared to survive the great comet Y2K? It is even now entering the solar system of the electronic heavens. Destination: your job. Your money. Your records. Your life.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 10:01

Scotty - I said that gold would close at $325 +/- $5.
That bet still stands. Don't misrepresent what I said.
Don't insult me. I am not your mark.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 09:58
TED @seakayaking>(@seakayaking):
Mornin Scotty! Comex Gold up 2.40 and Silver up 5.7 cents...It's a beautiful day....the ocean is calm and I'm off fer a little seakayaking..

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 09:53
John-hepcat: I'm writing in regards to your response to my bet. Here's what you said ( in brackets ) :

[[Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:25
john ( ) :

Scotty - This sounds like a great bet, only I would change two things:
1. It's not enough that I get the dollar figure correct. I must be correct
out to two decimal places, and predict where it will be at 20, 10, and
5 minutes before the close.
2. Since you obviously spent a lot of time saying what I must do
while avoiding any prediction of your own, why don't you get a print-
out of your suggested bet and fold it origami-like into the shape of
an anus.]]

As for paragraph #1 - agreed. As for paragraph #2, I am not avoiding a prediction. I am simply betting you that gold WILL NOT be at $325 per oz on 29 July. Your previous statements clearly stated that you felt ( indeed bragged ) that gold would be $325 on 29 July - and you were quite enthusiastic about taking on all comers against that figure. I am challenging you with that prediction. I believe you are wrong. My USD10,000 wager stands.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 09:48

TED - If you think I am Scirocco ( or Sirocco or however it was spelled ) ,
you are sadly mistaken. Of course, you have been sadly mistaken
before, so this doesn't surpise me. I am not the only person who tires
of your constant need to post information which we all have access to.
It would be like me posting at 9:36 p.m. that The time is 9:36 p.m.,
up one minute from one minute ago. I'm just glad someone else posted
it before me, so you couldn't discount it as Hep-rat's vendetta or whatever
you use to delude yourself into believing your posts are immune to

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 09:37
TED @comex>(@comex):
Comex report: Gold up .50, Silver up 4.2 cents,and Platinum up 6.50...
Tort: What did I tell you....

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 09:28

Scirocco - What's your point?


Tort - Low level burrito residue wafting into your vicinity.
EBN gold up a nickel, unchanged from last update five minutes ago. Or maybe
I hit reload too quickly. I'm off to play with the light switches in my huge mansion.

( This imitation of Earl/TED/Cherokee's highest achievements in writing sponsored by Walt Disney's Fantasia. Celebrity voices provided by paid impressionists.
Huge mansion actually a double-wide in a trailer park, light switch actually
a toggle on a battery-operated Coleman. )

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 09:25
Read this story about the lack of quality workers available to US companies and tell me inflation won't be far behind.....


Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 09:19
Novice @Shiny white stuff>(@Shiny white stuff):
Looks like the PGMs are off to the races again today...and it seems to me D.A. predicted this move. T'would be nice to see the uptick reflected in the share prices of SWC and PDL/PDLCF ( but won't hold my breath ) .

Surprise/surprise ( if anyone still cares ) : Front page article in the Toronto Globe and Mail today says, yes, de Guzman did the Bre-X salting...60 oz of gold bought from a local artisanal type was used to salt the cores on a pool table. It was rather cleverly if crudely done, and he would have needed help.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 09:16
BillD Ho...hum!! Pa up limit again >(Ho...hum!! Pa up limit again ): up $6.20 ... limit up again this morning...Russian lend-lease 1942 Dodge trucks go no karborator I guess...Go SWC go....!!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 08:51
Donald @Home>(@Home):
AURIC: I was wondering what kind of remarks he might receive from the other side of the table. I am sure that business people and farmers back home have been talking to their Congressman about the high dollar and the competitive difficulties it creates. If it comes up, watch his response and any possible market reaction for insights.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 08:44
Auric @home>(@home):

Any guesses about Mr. Greenspan's testimony? Will it be The Tempest, or Much Ado About Nothing?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 08:31
Lan Man U.S. Mint Reports Increased Sales!>(U.S. Mint Reports Increased Sales!):
Bill Buckler and all: See K2 for details

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 08:05
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Required reading for doomsday types....Virtual Euro: Risks in interim phase gain


By Wolfgang Münchau, Economics Correspondent

Assuming that everything goes wrong with monetary union in the first three
years, there is a risk that Germany could end up with hyper- inflation, that
other countries could default on their national debt and that currency
speculators could make a killing.

This scenario might seem far-fetched, but it is currently the subject of an
intensive debate about the stability of the so-called interim period for
economic and monetary union between 1999 and 2001.

Emu is seen most at risk during this period, when national currencies will
continue to circulate as odd denominations of the euro. During those three
years, the euro will be a virtual currency.

There will be a European central bank and a single interest rate, and
companies and individuals will be able to carry out transactions in euros.
But euro banknotes and coins will not arrive until 2002.

The argument about stability in the interim phase was triggered recently by
Mr Walter Eltis, emeritus fellow of Exeter College, Oxford, in an article in
Prospect, a monthly magazine published in the UK.

Mr Eltis writes that Emu could face premature death as investors desert
their national currencies in favour of the D-Mark during this transitional

He argues that investors will pile into D-Marks especially when budget
deficits in other countries increase. Depending on the scale of such a shift,
D-Mark bank notes and coins could flood the whole Emu area and end up
as Europe's single currency well before euro banknotes arrive in 2002.

But if Emu were to break up before 2002, Germany would end up with a
hyper-inflationary supply of D-Marks.

For a massive printing of D-Marks will leave most Germans, not least the
directors of the Bundesbank, more than unhappy, he says.

Mr Avinash Persaud, head of currency research at JP Morgan,
acknowledges that there is a risk, but describes it as vastly exaggerated.
What is needed for monetary union is the pooling of central bank
reserves, he said.

It is imperative that when the public take French francs to the Banque de
France and ask for D-Marks in exchange, that on the other side the
Bundesbank merrily prints D-Marks for the French because we have a
pooled set of reserves. If there is a restraint, then monetary union is

According to the Maastricht treaty, national reserves are pooled only up to
Ecu50bn ( £32.9bn ) , a level which may prove insufficient if everybody
decides to invest in D-Marks.

Under normal circumstances, if Emu survives and if euros replace national
banknotes in 2002 as scheduled, then a strategy of buying D-Marks would
not pay off.

Changing Italian liras into euros would be the same as changing liras into
D-Marks, and then changing D-Marks into euros.

But it also means that buying D-Marks carries no risk and no cost either -
assuming that there will be no cost in switching from one currency to

There is even an outside chance of huge currency gain, if Emu were to
collapse before January 2002, or even if just one or two countries decided
to withdraw from it.

From the investor's point of view, the D-Mark carries no downside but a
potentially huge upside.

Mr Martin Brookes, European economist at Goldman Sachs in London,
said that this catastrophe scenario mixed up cause and effect. He said any
conceivable break-up would reflect politics, not money flows.

He makes two points. First, governments will re-denominate their debt
from national currencies into euros in 1999, thereby limiting the degree to
which investors could switch into D-Mark assets after 1999, as the
number of such assets will be diminishing.

Secondly, he says, the extent to which investors would try to switch their
bank accounts into D-Mark accounts would be limited. Under the
Maastricht treaty, national denominations will only be legal tender in their
home countries during the transitional period.

A strategy of piling into D-Marks would then become a purely
speculative act.

People would still need to keep their current accounts in national
currencies or in euros to pay for rent, mortgages and consumption, unless
of course they packed up and moved to Germany.

Mr Brookes said this law limited the disaster scenario. The argument that
piling into D-Marks could prove inflationary - let alone hyper-inflationary -
for Germany, applies only to the extent that money is actually spent in

While this is true in a technical sense, the Bundesbank could still be
nervous about printing unlimited amounts of D-Marks, as long as there is
any risk - however small and for whatever reason - that Emu could break

Mr Brookes said that the risks to Emu during this period relate more to
European politics than to the actions of speculators.

Mr Persaud outlined another possible danger. If a country withdraws from
Emu, it is likely to do so under severe political and economic
circumstances, which in all likelihood would trigger a massive devaluation
of the national currency against the euro.

A country that wants to leave would have to embrace the risk of default
on its national debt at the same time, he says.

The political, financial and economic risks of a collapse are therefore so
intense that EU governments will try to struggle to make Emu work if and
when it gets off the ground.

It is probably the same fear of the unknown which has kept the project
together so far.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 07:53
Good afternoon JIN!...Greenspan speaks at 2PM ( EST ) today and at 10AM ( EST ) tomorrow....and the world holds its breath for Greasepan to utter...

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 07:49
TED @donald>(@donald):
Donald: Will do Bro...ABN Gold down a nickle...From the WSJ:Investors are borrowing more than ever to ride the bull market in stocks and bonds.
Investors owed more than 113 last month in borrowings against the securities held in their brokerage accounts ( known as margin debt ) up from 98.9 billion in April. The biggest two month jump since 1987...That year rings a bell but I can't quite place what happened that year....

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 07:45
Ted, you are sounding a lot like Ceasar, Shakespeare style. If the Urinal yields any nuggets pass them along.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 07:37
Donald @Home>(@Home):
TED: Be sure to remember to wash your hands. Ink stains you know.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 07:34
Lou @Hey ABBOTT! >(@Hey ABBOTT! ):

Who's on first, What's on second, Idunno's on third.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 07:32
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Breakfast re-hash from London. Gold: What is wrong with the market?


By Robert Chote

The gold market has been looking pretty sick since the Australian central
bank announced it had sold most of its reserves. What's going on? The
Reserve Bank confessed earlier this month it had sold 167 tonnes of gold
since the beginning of the year, more than two-thirds of its total holdings.
This knocked the gold price to a 12-year low of less than $316 ( £189 ) an

The price has recovered a little, but still ended last week at only $324 an
ounce. The fall undermined the share prices of gold producers worldwide
and left Australia's own industry furious. Mr Toni Poli, chairman of one
low-cost producer in Western Australia, Eagle Mining, called it the nail in
the coffin.

But central banks have been selling gold for some time, haven't they? True,
although gold industry lobbyists point out that 19 countries were net
buyers last year against only 16 net sellers.

The Australians are also relatively modest players. The recent sales have
probably demoted it from 18th in the world gold holdings league table to
about 30th, leaving it with about as much in its vaults as Thailand and

Other sellers have disposed of more: the Netherlands unloaded 300 tonnes
last year, but still has 10 times as much left as Australia. Belgium has also
been a heavy seller since 1991 and plans to dispose of another 134

So why the fuss? It is the motive for its sales that makes Australia different
- and the fact that it is a major gold producer which might be thought to
have more interest than most countries in maintaining a high price.

The Dutch and Belgian gold sales are assumed to have been in part to
raise money so they can meet the fiscal criteria in the Maastricht Treaty.
Switzerland is also planning disposals, but specifically to finance a
humanitarian foundation following the controversy over its holdings of Nazi

What were the Australians up to then? The Reserve Bank seems simply to
be behaving like an ordinary investor. It is rebalancing its portfolio to
improve the return that it earns on its wealth. The possibility that others
might follow suit pushed the gold price down three times as much in the
week after the Australian announcement than other central bank sales have
on average.

That makes sense, I suppose. After all, gold does not earn any interest and
it has hardly been a great store of value. That is not strictly true. An
estimated 50 central banks realise a small return on their gold reserves by
leasing them to the market. Banks and bullion dealers then lend them on to
producers and fabricators who use it to fund hedging positions or as
working stock. This yields a return of 1 or 2 per cent - not much, but
comparable with holding Japanese yen.

As for gold's performance as a store of value, this depends on the time
period you look at. The gold price peaked at about $850 an ounce in
1980, dropped to $320 an ounce in 1993, rebounded to $417 early last
year and has fallen since.

But although gold has been a poor investment in recent years, enthusiasts
point out that it has given a return comparable to US Treasury bonds over
a century or so.

Would we be better off if other central banks followed Australia's
example? Yes, but there would be winners and losers, according to a
recent study published by the US Federal Reserve.

This suggested that the immediate sale of all government gold reserves
would produce an improvement in economic welfare worth $368bn. Most
of this would take the form of higher government revenues. But the price
would fall from the $350 an ounce assumed at the time of the study to
$309 an ounce, hurting private stock-pilers and mine owners.

If it was only the US government that sold its gold, the study estimates that
the price would have fallen to only $340 an ounce. The US would have
received $89bn in revenue, 10 per cent more than if all governments sold.

Each government makes more revenue if it sells before other governments
either sell or announce a sale, the study argues.

This may be important in explaining why some governments have made
sizeable sales over the last several years and why there are rumours of
future sales.

So what's stopping the others? Most central bankers are still reluctant to
dispose of an asset which offers insurance against inflation and is not
someone else's liability - hence gold tends to do well when government
bonds do badly.

And in countries such as Germany, where hyperinflation has destroyed
paper currencies twice this century, it retains an almost mystical allure as
the ultimate store of value in the event of catastrophe.

A new younger generation of central bankers around the world thinks this
overly sentimental, so gold sales are likely to continue here and there. But
we have yet to see one of the really big stockpilers - the US, Germany,
Switzerland, France or Italy - announce significant disposals. If and when
that happens, recent market turbulence may look like a storm in a teacup.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 07:27
P.Costello @Abbotts house>(@Abbotts house):
Hey guys give me a go. I know its 3 strikes and your out but I didnt
know CIA=Reuters+Hedge Fund. Or was it CIA+Reuters=Hedge Fund. Hang on
it must have been Reuters=Hedge Fund+CIA.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 07:26
TED @donald>(@donald):
Mornin Donald! and I thought I was obsessed with Asia....

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 07:24
TED @tort>(@tort):
Good one!!! am off ta read The Urinal.....not piss in it!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 07:23
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Several Aftermath of Devaluation stories from Thailand.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 07:20
TED @cherokee>(@cherokee):
Mornin Cherokee!! How bout know of a good place JIN could access for info. on short selling....and JIN you better not be thinkin of shorting GOLD as we don't tolerate that kind of stuff on this forum....

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 07:16
TED @downbutnotout>(@downbutnotout):
Mornin Tort and Panda!...Tort:ding ding!...anyone know of a good source for info. on short selling as my friend JIN wants some info. on that subject...I don't do short selling cause don't the markets always go UP..
The Dollar is soarin this morn....

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 07:14
cherokee @mornin-ted-&-crew>(@mornin-ted-&-crew):

houswife has participated here using at least 5 different
handles that i know of. she/he used to e-mail me regularly
supposedly from new zealand. i recently tried to e-mail
she/he and the mail was returned as un-deliverable due
to that url being shut-down. must've changed to another
isp or kicked the bucket or was a gov't plant looking
for ioti.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 07:12
Tortfeasor Joke of the Morn>(Joke of the Morn):
Looks like only more of the same drivvel in the markets this am. Makes basket weaving sound titilating. Since Ted has been under attack and must feel like a punch drunk fighter after being maligned on this site last night I feel inclined to post the following Tyson jokes to cheer him up.

10 ) Tyson already has his next fight lined up, with Lorena Bobbitt.
Winner eats all.

9 ) This gives new meaning to box lunch.

8 ) Reporter: Evander, what did you think when Tyson bit off your ear?
Holyfield: WHAT?

7 ) Dr.Spock-vs.-Tyson bout hastily canceled

6 ) What did Mike Tyson say to Van Gogh?
You gonna eat that?

5 ) Did you hear about the new Mike Tyson computer?
It has two bytes and no memory

4 ) Next bout: Tyson vs. Hannibal Lecter, with Julia Child to referee.
To be held in Hungary. Billed as, The snackfest in Budapest.

3 ) How does Mike Tyson differ from Metallica?
Metallica leaves a ringing in
your ears. Tyson leaves your ear in a ring.

2 ) Slogans for Tyson-Holyfield III
The Third Gogh Around
Dahmer vs. Psalmer
The Last Supper
Ear-Reconcilable Differences
Grazing Bull
You Wanna Piece of Me?
Blood Sweat and Ears
No Lobe Lost
Bite of the Century
Because you're dumb enough to pay for it.
Pay Per Chew

1 ) When interviewed after the fight, Tyson's first remarks were that
It tasted like chicken.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 07:09
panda @>(@):
If anyone wants to know what 'manic' or parabolic market looks like, then take a peek at the Frankfurt DAX. Down 1-2% then up 2-3% the next day. Very normal. :- ) )

Good morning TED!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 07:00
Donald @Home>(@Home):
China acts to shore up confidence in stocks.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 06:55
Jack Big Traders or Hypocondriacs>(Big Traders or Hypocondriacs):

Donald: ( 05:47 ) Either BT or GS. A bit tardy for Sir James.
John Disney: ( 05:23 ) Bernatz' report is definately not for hypocondriacs.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 06:47
TED @lastnight>(@lastnight):
Couldn't get online last night and I awake to find I've been viciously attacked....Thanks for the support group...doesn't take a rocket scientist to know who did the dirty deed...

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 06:46
panda @Where's my platinum!>(@Where's my platinum!):
Japan still waiting;

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 06:42
George Cole Florida>(Florida):
NY Times worried about a possible resurgence of inflation:

August gold up 60 cents this morning according to DBC. Hope I'm wrong about $320 this week.

My gold price projections:

one month;$335
three months: $360
six months: $390

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 06:29
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Good morning ALL...ABN Gold up .20 and Silver up 2 cents...

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 05:55
Mary-Rose Astrology, astrology...more bloody astrology>(Astrology, astrology...more bloody astrology):
My predictions for gold are 1 month: $339.42 ; 2 months $344.57 ; 3 months $ 340.22; 6 months $362.20. I base this on this wonderful gem I found at another site which was posted on July 8 : Current crash in gold prices should end by July 21 as sun enters Leo. Sun & Venus should warm up gold for at least its astrological month. Sextile of Mars in Libra will help. Expect wild changes ( Uranus ) . But Uranus opposition to Leo will continue fall after that. Another crazy period early October as Jupiter goes direct on the 12th. Turn of Jupiter increases depths of swings. However I won't wager my life savings on these predictions.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 05:47
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Malaysia blames un-named certain person on currency problems.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 05:37
Donald @Home>(@Home):
This about China and Tibet ( By way of Brazil )

Poverty and expansion are characteristic of China

LHASA, 07/22/97 - The invasion of direct foreign capital, excess capacity in nearly every industry
and heavy subsidies to state owned companies have resulted in a constant explosion of exports from
China. While. Chinese industrial production rose 11.67% in the first half of the year, in Tibet and in
Sechuan, there are decrepit factories and mills unable to pay workers' salaries. The Chinese
government must cut subsidies to obsolete state owned companies but there are millions of workers
who have not received their salaries in months. ( SB )

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 05:23
John Disney>(
to all ---
I read Global whatever's and Bernatz's report to shareholders
on their competing processes to recover precious metals from

1. Global's is funnier
2. Bernatz's is better written.
3. Both are BS

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 04:17
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 02:56
Auric @Glad to have Ted back>(@Glad to have Ted back):

Time to call it a day. BTW, I think the banter and occasional tomfoolery here is a breath of fresh air. IMHO, Kitco would not be Kitco without it. The serious and thoughtful opinions expressed here are priceless as well. There ain't no place like it!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 02:53
Just noticed article in July 7 issue of Forbes about Chaum, an entrpreneur in cybercash. The question was brought up: With the advent of encrypted cybermoney, how would governments keep track of money supply? If the cybercash were linked to say, gold, the question is sort of moot, isn't it?

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 02:47
DJ A glimmer thru the haze.>(A glimmer thru the haze.):
Arden - Thanks for the effort, but you are still moving too fast for me. When you say - as a speculator, all you have to do is put up some margin money, what actually happens? Either something must be sold, or someone else must make a promise to buy at that price. Otherwise, if the gods are with you, and the price goes down, you will buy it back at the lower price, but the proceeds of the original sale won't be there to cover your purchase price.

I'm sure all this is Investing 101, and I'll have to buy a book. No need to take up Kitco bandwidth with additional discussion. Thanks for your help. Slowly but surely .....!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 02:31
To all,
I would liked to learn some technic/analysts in short selling!
anyone may help?please..thanks!
jin e mail ( )

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 02:30
To all,
I would liked to learn some technic/analysts in short selling!
anyone may help?please..thanks!

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 02:26

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 02:22
Thanks for the reply to greenie issue!I think he must have big impact in recently s.e.a financial crisis,....and more, and more....?
let trade...

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 01:03
This game of forcasting is somewhat like watching a Windows 95 demo.
When the real game gets played there are a lot of unexpected surprises.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 00:21
Kap'n Kev: RT? or electrolytes? Which do you want? ( :- ) ..... I've been using Ensign's Vista RT for 2 years. It's DOS based and works well. It has all the indicators I'll need. I run it under W95 and have no problems. They have a Windows based product but I have a bias against all that pointing and clicking. The DOS version is faster moving from one screen to the next with hot keys and 'F' keys. None of that pulldown stuff. I'm still playing around with getting to run in background and collect data when I come here to collect gossip. So far, it don't like to do that. Support has been good from Ensign. I emailed a description ( Sun nite ) of a problem. A message was waiting this afternoon when I returned to the office. I did have call software support to solve it but that was a positive experience as well. ....... After all of this maybe I'll get a freebie. Huh? ............... ONe final comment. Graphics are no doubt better ( finer bars ) on the windows version.

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 00:16
RT @lookin over my shoulder>(@lookin over my shoulder):
Savage: I think your getting a little paranoid...a common goldbug affliction. :- ) )

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 00:10
ezau swami@sag.nut>(swami@sag.nut):
Thanks for the info from all you nice folks. I'm pretty much in cash
now and waiting for a sign. A plus sign that is |~`'`}} ( he hit a fan )
Nite all,

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 00:05
capnkev @yawn>(@yawn):
FWIW, gold Will be up about 6 bucks in the next 24 hrs.
Earl what kind of RT ya got. ( ELECTOLYTES? SHEESES )

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 00:00
bimbo eruption>(eruption):

1 month; 327 3 months; 330 6 months; 332

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 23:49
Auric @OK, I'll Bite>(@OK, I'll Bite):

In the FWIW Dept.--August 20, 1997--Gold $340. October 20--$370. Jan. 20, 1998--$350. I guarantee that these predictions could prove to be erroneous!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 23:47
NJ Charts>(Charts):
Byron : Your 22:24. Great chart but I can't make it work for other symbols. How does one do it- for free, of course.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 23:41
George Cole stocks and bullion>(stocks and bullion):
Looks like the yellow will go down to $320 this week. The fact that gold stocks did not do well last week considering bullion's surge was the tipoff this rally would not last. When a strong bullion rally is accompanied by impressive gold stock performance the bull will be on; not before. Still see this as a base building period in preparation for a powerful bull.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 23:41
DA - seems like I looked for Pa stocks befor when you asked me. as I recall, Nymex doesn't give out the same info that Comex does, rather curious, don't you thing?

DJ - when you sell a stock short, your broker borrows it from another account, then sells it. ( I wonder if this really happens?!! ) But in commodities, you can either sell a contract as a 'hedge', in which case you are in the business and have the product covered, or you sell it as a speculator where all you do is put up your margin money as a bet that you are right. If the price goes against you, your broker asks you for more money, that is if the price movement is slow enough. However, if the price move very rapidly against you, your broker may buy you in without your knowledge because their money is standing behind yours to guarantee the trade. This leads to some interesting thoughts about how fast gold can move to the upside when it begins to move. The first up moves will be contained by new shorts like RJ, but if they can not keep the market down, they will be forced to cover at increasingly higher prices, which I believe is only a matter of time!!!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 23:33
Mary Rose: Hmmmmmm. Guess that says it all. ....... Welcome aboard, as well. With Auroelf apparently going abroad, the 'yang' ranks will be thin. ...... Where is Housewife? Need to find out how many coin filled coffee cans she has planted.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 23:30
Machf15 machf15@nicom>(machf15@nicom):
Ok then, anybody know what steel scrap has been doing for the last year or so? It is too late to look it up now. If you can't answer the question, I'll look it up after a good night sleep.


Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 23:26
Machf15: It has been said, by those who know, that Mr. Greenspan has an inordinate fascination with the price of steel scrap. No entrails, sacred bones, necromancy or other modern rites of economic prediction. Just the price of steel scrap. ....... Who knows. He is doing better than we are...... ( :- ) )

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 23:25
Mary-Rose cloudy skies>(cloudy skies):
With folk here quoting astrology and Mike Sheller predicting a correction of the Dow to 5150 beginning July 28, I may as well throw in my 2 cents worth. I have no knowledge of asrology, but find it entertaining. An Australian publication a couple of months back gave a lengthy forecast and I quote for anyone interested....Uranus will radicalise every aspect of our lives through paradoxical shifts, affecting politics, culture, technology and finance. Fluctuations on the stock market will finally produce a devastating crash in world money markets, leaving poverty and despair in its wake. While 1997 is bound to produce some dramatic increases and wild fluctuations, it is the year of 1998 that raises the biggest threat. There, the months of January and February and then June are the high risk times where the brittleness of rapid financial acceleration may all too easily collapse in on itself and us in the process. Make sure your investment package involves only what has real value on a trading market, eg precious metals, gems,useful product or services. Almost certainly by mid 1998, the world money markets will be in disarray..... And in the following edition of the same publication another Astrologer replies saying...Neil Giles has written an amazing article, but it is too pessimistic for me. The bloke who wrote 'The Earthquake Generation' used astrology for his predictions and yes, they can get it wrong...We are moving backwards from Pisces to Aquarius. The section of Pisces we are in is ruled by Neptune ( say no more..Illusion etc ) and we then move to the Venus decan of Aquarius. Venus is equivalent to Nostradamus' One Thousand Years of Peace. Confused.....Yeah, me too!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 23:23
Savage >():
Another Thought: If gold didn't exist; nor silver; what would be the preeminent investment alternative?...during deflation; inflation ; pre crash; post crash...?

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 23:21
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Today is so boring. Come on gold, go up, go down, do anything.....

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 23:13
Savage >():
I guess the majority of Kitcoites did not think too much of today's USA Today article... ( since not too many replied to my earlier query ) . I think something's afoot that most of us haven't thought of...the question is...what

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 23:11
Tortfeasor Ted>(Ted):
Ted, minor missle meandering coastward from the Taco Belt.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 23:11
I have been investing in steel companies over the last year. All are doing very well in the last 12 months, but you don't hear anyone talking about it. When steel is doing good, isn't that usually the sign of a strong economy? Me thinks Greenspan isn't watching the right indicators or either he has a different agenda than inflation. Keep watching the steel companies, inflation can't be far behind their bullish performance ( and gold won't be far behind either ) .

Comments from the more informed?


Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 23:07
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Wizard: I'm glad you understood the question.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 23:06
Byron @ Follow-up:>(@ Follow-up:):
JIN: Mr. Fed Head ( Greenspan ) testifies before Congress tomorrow and probably Wednesday also. Should start about 9:00 AM EST in the US

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 23:00
the wizard @ oz>(@ oz):
dear Scott,
the answer to your question
is in your question.....

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:59
DJ Curiouser and curiouser>(Curiouser and curiouser):
D.A.- Thanks your response makes sense. It is curious that SWC would make this statement in their annual report. Is there no way they can achieve what they say? Even at some cost?

Arden - I'm too much of a novice ( and probably too simple ) to really understand the issues re: selling short something that doesn't exist. When you sell short, isn't it borrowed from somewhere? Don't you ( or your brokerage ) get paid for it ( so RJ can pay interest on the proceeds ) ? How can you get paid for something that doesn't exist? I really apologize for my ignorance of these things. I hope someone takes pity on me and can explain this in simple terms.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:57
Ron RT Commissions>(RT Commissions):
Savage: emailed 'em to you. Let me know if you find a better deal. Tx.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:57
Goldbug23 @occosir>(@occosir):
Ted, my rec: ignore this hot air balloon who has contributed nothing to this board to my knowledge. Let him diddle with hepcat.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:55
Pascal @The New Jerusalem>(@The New Jerusalem):
Note the absence of any reference to US currency in the following quote. The angel who talked with me had a measuring rod of gold to measure the city, its gates and its walls. The city was laid out like a square, as long as it was wide. He measured the city with the rod and found it to be 12,000 stadia ( about 2,200 kilometers ) in length, and as wide and high as it is long. He measured its wall and it was 144 cubits ( about 65 meters ) thick, by man's measurement, which the angel was using. The wall was made of jasper, and the city of pure gold, as pure as glass. Revelation 21:15-18
The value of gold is eternal.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:54
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Wizzard: What kind of cr.p is that!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:54

Was that you sellin down the old bullion? Have ya loaded up big?

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:51
the wizard @ oz>(@ oz):
this is 'the lapse'
when the almighty dollar exhausts itself
now is the hour
when heaven is abundant here
but not, perhaps, apparent

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:46
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
If Kitco's 24hour graph was a heart monitor, I think we are all dead!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:46
Skylark home>(home):
DJ: In a fixed forward sale, a fixed date is set for delivery with a fixed price based on the spot at the time the contract is entered into. In the spot deferred, the date of delivery is flexible. An advantage of the spot is that the producer can postpone delivery if it can get a higher market price for his current production. The advantage of a fixed contract is the producer may get a higher net return, based on the then current interest rate and lease rates.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:40
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
D.A. Loved your Arab link!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:38
D.A. an.interesting.parallel>(an.interesting.parallel):

Your thoughts on the Aussie CB and their claim to gold in ground that isn't their's brings to mind another tidbit from the recent news. Both the U.S. and Germany are in the process of liquidating their strategic petroleum reserves. The implication being that there is no need for strategic reserves because there is no reason to worry about a supply disruption. Perhaps the G7 thinking is that in the event that something untoward happens in the Middle East, they will just walk on in, and turn on the pumps themselves. If I were an owner of crude supplies in the Biblical lands I would not take this policy change as a good omen. This is what is meant by the new world order.

BTW: There was an interesting article in the Financial Times a few days back which discussed the oil reserve disposals. Two numbers caught my eye. First, it costs the U.S. about $200 M per year to finance and maintain the reserve. During the last energy crisis in the 70's it was estimated that GDP was reduced by something on the order of 2-3% during the year of the embargo. If we were to have a similar event in todays world, 2-3% of GDP would be roughly $200 Billion. So in essence, our government is laying 1000 to 1 odds against there being a serious supply shortage. As I prepare to send these fools a large portion of my earnings for this last period, I can not help but marvel at the never ending supply of stupidity which seems to eminate from this quarter.

If they are at your fingertips could you be so kind as to post the Pa stock levels at the Comex. TIA.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:37
Tortfeasor Leave Ted Be>(Leave Ted Be):
Sirocco, Ted's a fixture here and a damn fine friend to many of us. I'd rather read his short pithy entertaining stuff than a lot of psuedo intellectual drival which finds its way onto this forum. Leave him alone or the dogs of summer will be unleased on your sorry carcass. Cherokee, feel free to unlease the fluxomatic on this fellow.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:24
Byron @ Long Term Support:>(@ Long Term Support:):
Following chart on Newmont Mining goes back to the 1970's. Forumla for short term confidence building: Take one flexible 8 ruler and apply to bottom of long term support line. URL is,12

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:20
D.A. cake.only.once>(cake.only.once):

Your intuition is correct. Once one has sold their stuff forward it is sold. There is no deciding to then sell it at spot unless the forward is repurchased.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:14
Jack Arden -thank you>(Arden -thank you):

I surely appreciate your posts; and feel sure the others feel simular.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:08
cherokee @yeah-it's-me----hacker-of-the-weine-wackers>(@yeah-it's-me----hacker-of-the-weine-wackers):

you foaming at the mouth attack dog.
bark when told, and do not scold
that which you cannot comprehend!!!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 22:07
DJ - yes there are other sources of deliverable gold. In fact there are 541,663 oz deposited in Comex warehouses right now. BUT, they do not have a contract written against them! It is very my like the Aussie CB selling its gold and then saying, well we can replendish it from the ground because we have all of these reserves. One little minor point THE AUSSIE CB DOESN'T OWN THE GOLD IN THE GROUND!!!!!! Just like the people who have shorted gold on comex do not have any gold on deposit to back them up ( at least 98.5 % of them don't! )

My source for the numbers is the daily news release from the Comex. It comes out about an hour or so after the gold market closes.

My whole point is that the people who have sold gold short have only paper to back them up. With the huge physical demand for the metal and the shortfall with mine production, gold prices have only one direction long term.

You may look at it in the long term. Governments have forced people to give up their gold in exchange for paper. Now the people are giving back the paper for the gold. Yes gold supply is relatively stable, but there is a whole hell of a lot more people now than the 1930's and they all have more paper.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 21:55
Japan @ the golden moment>(@ the golden moment):
To all... Thank-you for the lower prices , will continue to by gold and sell U.S dollars. Watch the price now!!!!!!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 21:52
Cherokee: The first paragraph is an arrow straight to the heart of a possible paradox. At the same time, folks like G. Soros are well connected with sources and avenues available to them that are unavailable to those of us among the bootless and unhorsed. Still, it would make for an interesting evening, or more, if spent picking the mind of someone like him. Over a glass or two of sound wet goods. ..... Too bad it cannot be.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 21:47
rj Cueball @ 10:43>(Cueball @ 10:43):
I don't do mining stocks. I wade through enough BS as it is.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 21:38
D.A.: If the broadcast was unable to soothe passions in the middle east, at least, for a moment, they were sublimated. ........ BTW, rumors of hangover and accompanying electolyte imbalance are greatly exaggerated. I was up at 5, out at 6. Drove 100 miles to the coast began work at 8. Had an x-ray machine deinstalled by 11:30 and was back in Puddle City by 2:30. All in time to get a software fix for the real time system .... But I think I will keep a low profile this evening.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 21:26
Skylark home>(home):
Sirroco: What contribution have you made.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 21:25
DJ Have cake and eat it?>(Have cake and eat it?):
SWC hedges using spot deferred forward sales commitments. They claim they have the option to defer delivery against spot deferred contracts and can sell at the market price if they choose. Is this generally the case with all hedging? If they can do this, what is the penalty? Why doesn't everyone do it?

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 21:25
cherokee @paper-tigers'-wake>(@paper-tigers'-wake):
neither lender nor borrower be

how were the money traders/lenders treated
in the book of books?

if soros and his ilk are the fuse that starts
the collapse of foreign ( or domestic ) currencies,
it would be prophetic justice.
imagine, speculators causing the demise of the
very system that has given them great wealth
and power. kind-of like riding on the back of the
tiger, they will end-up inside-her. the profits
made, will fade, along with the value of that
which they have won. to win, they ultimately

there is but one place for gold and silver left
to go. to the moon, where they belong. their
intrinsic value is astronomical ( mike sheller )
and ever-increasing, as the earths' population
continues to grow. short-term? who cares---
the long-term with options is the ticket. time
is working against those who have taken, instead
of giving. have you given to the seller of options
lately? give today, and take tomorrow. be the ant,
not the cricket. there is a fell wind blowing over
the financial arena, with hard, cold times on the
way. are you ready to pay, for 7 years of irrational
exuberance? some-one has to pay!----consider---

for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

the beauty of physics and life. try as they might, day will
continue to turn to night. man is just one spoke in the great
wheel of life. can you handle high rpm's when the wheel starts
to spin, as chaos and flux take over again?

cherokee!; ) en-route to the big generator ( yes ) in the sky........

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 21:24
Sirocco: Sirocco..... if memory serves correct the word means 'hot wind' or something like that. Doesn't it?

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 21:20

This has nothing to do with gold but is too funny to pass up.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 21:19
weinersville @hot dog, usa>(@hot dog, usa):
Sirocco: Lighten up on Ted. He can't help it.....he was born that way. What's your excuse?

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 21:16
Front To BRIDGE:>(To BRIDGE:):
Bridge, re your Yahoo world market quotes.
Best way I've found is to go to and to create an account ( it's free ) which includes the world quotes section that is there automatically. It's just pick and chose but they have about 15~20 world markets on a 24hr 15min delayed basis. Just takes a bit of setup but well worth it. Hope that helps...


Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 21:15
Skylark Hedging>(Hedging):
PASCAL You need to investigate the hedging policy of the company you are investing in. Many have a policy that allows them to take advantage of a rise in gold, others have a policy that allows them to participate with a rise to a certain ceiling ( ie some are at 450 to 500 ) , and others may have a fixed ceiling. And based on this hedging policy, you can make your decision as which companies to invest in when risk of a drop in the price of gold is high and which companies to switch into when the risk is reduced.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 21:14
Sirocco @hurricane.island>(@hurricane.island):
Leave hepcat alone: he is harmless, and brings interesting points IMHO. Squelsh TED who brings nothing... I mean N.O.T.H.I.N.G. to this board. He should get a life himself. Who cares if he has a walk when EBN is up a dime. Fascinating indeed, TED.
USA TODAY front page, lead article: THAT is fascinating.... why did they choose that? mmmmhhh! Things are heating up...

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 21:11
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Tomorrow when Greenspan testifies it will be interesting to see if anyone on the committee brings up the high dollar and complains about the difficulty their business or agricultural constituents are having in remaining competitive.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 21:10
DJ Deliverable gold>(Deliverable gold):
Arden - Is the COMEX the only source of deliverable gold to cover this open interest? Is the info you are posting available, and if so, could you post your source? It would be an interesting exercise to look at the same statistics for palladium when deliverable shortages drove the price through the roof, and to compare this with the status of gold today.

One other question for anyone ( pardon my ignorance ) : Surely the players must be aware of the situation arden is presenting. Somehow they must not consider this too abnormal. Is there no mechanism for this situation to correct itself if and when the demand for deliverables can no longer be met? If the only solution is that which palladium just went through, do the statistics indicate this will be comparable, more severe, or less severe ( severe being good, of course! ) . Thanks, in advance for your comments.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 21:02
Paul Earl, I'm Back :)>(Earl, I'm Back :)):
Inflation?/Deflation?......Answer: Both...ALTERNATEING according to the
dictates of THEY in order to keep our consumer-led society from imploding
and our gov't debt from exploding....god forbid any exernal forces reek havoc in the
process.....Earl, really, Beer? Go back to the were becoming very
mellow too...///Hey, hep-cat, why bother, get a girlfriend or start collecting
baseball cards.....

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 20:52
To all,
Anyone can tell me A.Greenfan going to have a speech to nite or when?

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 20:51
vronsky IS 1929 BEING REPLAYED THIS YEAR? - by Guest Guru Ure>(IS 1929 BEING REPLAYED THIS YEAR? - by Guest Guru Ure):
There is an uncanny similarity between the DOW from January 1920 to April 1930 AND TODAY’S DOW track record. Avoid reading this study at your own peril - GUEST GURU URE:

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 20:42
Pascal Waiting for the Crash>(Waiting for the Crash):
I have a question for anyone in the gold mining industry. I am long on gold metal and gold stocks. I have about 10 times more in gold stocks than metal. I am starting to wonder if being in the metal might be better. With the future commitments to sell new production at a fixed price, it seems that your profit potential has been sold out for the sake of stability. Is this the wrong perspective?

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 20:28
Kommissar KGB You make vun, ve go HAHAHA>(You make vun, ve go HAHAHA):

You make vun ven KGB use 1942 Lend Lease Dodge truk vit bad karburator.
You take lease Lend Lease Gold an Zell it, so price go down.
Least KGB honest.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 20:10
vronsky “The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy” Section - II>(“The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy” Section - II):
Dr. Geoffrey P.Miller, Professor of Law and Director, Center for Study of Central Banks, New York University Law School - presents erudite and comprehensive study. Section - II:

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 19:59
TED @Baja>(@Baja):
But before I go...EBN Gold up a dime!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 19:55
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Time for a movie....think we'll try BAJA....

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 19:54
Eligible comex gold stocks fell 41,841 oz today to 305,057 oz indicating that someone is taking delivery! With open interest as of Friday at 213,898 contracts, there is only 1,43 oz of gold pledged for delivery for each 100 oz contract. Or to put it another way, there are 210,848 contracts for 21,084,800 ounces of gold ( that 21 MILLION oz = two years US production ) for which there is NO gold promised for delivery!!!! ( You guys know that eventually I'm going to be right! )

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 19:38
Donald @Home>(@Home):
24.24 ounces to buy the Dow tonight.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 19:29
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Thugs after Albanian valuables.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 19:27
Nomcercy ( Mine Suspension ) : Caledonia mining corp suspended mining prices due to low prices, understandable, do you know how well they hedged future production? I will look at their 10-K & get back with their cash production cost/oz. Thought this would happen.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 19:25
Steve - Perth @Mary Rose>(@Mary Rose):
Good call Mary Rose re: Soros. Good to have a lady grace our forum once
again. It has been getting a little rough lately, with certain posters talking about men's appendages drawing in the coal etc.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 19:17
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Maylasia blames George Soros for currency crisis.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 18:13
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Currency crisis, bankruptcies, hurt Korean exports.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 18:11
nomercy Japan responds to China>(Japan responds to China):
Japan has called for a triangular relationship with
the United States and China in response to Beijing's
attacks on its defence alliance with Washington.

Foreign Minister Yukihiko Ikeda doubted Chinese
proposals for a new Asian multilateral security
mechanism, designed to replace ties with

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 18:07
We believe there is a distinct possibility that much of
this ( Russia's ) above ground supply has been depleted and that
the world now has to rely increasingly on mine production,
which for Russia may decline in 1997, Prudential's Morrison

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 18:04
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Indonesian currency zapped 5%

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 18:00
nomcercy Mine suspension>(Mine suspension):
TORONTO, July 21 ( Reuter ) - Caledonia Mining Corp said on
Monday that it suspended production at its Barbrook mine in
South Africa due to low gold prices.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 17:58
everybody @can't-wait>(@can't-wait):






Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 17:56
Donald @Home>(@Home):
More on Japanese banking problems.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 17:52
nomercy Its getting better>(Its getting better):
``Physical buying may remain low this month but will pick up in August ahead of Hindu festivals,'' he said. The four-month
Hindu festival season which begins next month is expected to generate demand for gold.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 17:46
nomercy Aug gold contracts expiration>(Aug gold contracts expiration):
There were very heavy rollovers, said George Gero of Prudential Securities. You've got 100,000 contracts that need to be
rolled over in the next week. If you're long Aug gold, you've got to get out of those positions. If you're short, you're better off,
since the market isn't running away from you.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 17:15
Richard Burke>(
Jack: good reference re Maxam and continuous leaching. This might go well with the new SX/EW continuous process once it is commercialized. Very low cost production, certainly under $100/oz in the Nevada type oxide deposits with open pit mining. The cost of removing the tailings rocks from the leaching tanks may cost quite a bit - I intend to find out how they plan to do this. John Hepcat is right, although I am not sure he is referring to this - buy Nevada gold mines; but I would add to operate them yourself.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 16:58
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
The DOW is up about 1600 since Greenspan detected and announced irrational exuberance Manipulation has its strange ways.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 16:16
Bob Palermo>(

Good post.

I have been trying to figure out GPGI for a while. I think that the principals of the company truly believe that they will be able to produce platinum group metals at an economically viable production cost. They have a dream and continue to pursue it. Of course, they are upbeat and overly optimistic about how close they are to viability. That seems to be the nature of the game for junior mining companies.

But even the report, that some consider proof that GPGI will make it, concludes that the chances for viability are less than 50-50 and at least 3 years away. And that is the way the market is reacting.

Maybe they will make it work. Good for them and GPGI investors if they do. I will be missing that train.

Bob Palermo

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 16:13
Big Blue's earnings @ 1.46 versus consensus estimate of 1.42....

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 16:08
TED @ocean>(@ocean):
Big Blue's earning's report due out within the hour....Dow up 16.49 but losers beat out winners by 2-1 on NYSE....

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 15:57

I'm just guessing but I'll bet I get to see this post again somewhere in the future. Anyhow here goes. All prices Londom PM fix.

08/20/97 343.50
10/20/97 363.50
01/20/97 370.10

Explanation for this startling rally? I own it, I an optomist and I want it to go up. I hate losing and really enjoy winning.

My dreams for silver are so much grander that I shall not even commit them to electrons beyond the confines of my very own head.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 15:57
TED @ocean>(@ocean):
Comex report: Gold down 3.40, Silver down 1.2 cents, Platinum up .70, and palladium up 4.95.....XAU down 2.80....Dow up 14....

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 15:35
D.A. whoa.boy>(whoa.boy):

Wow, looks like I hit a raw nerve.

First off, I have not ever used the term 'liar' in any post on this or any other forum. I am certain I have never called you a liar or any other individual on this or any other forum the same. I have tried really hard to maintain a civil tone in all of my communications and to make no personal attacks regardless of whether or not they may be warranted. I will continue in this manner.

Anytime I disagree with a post or a premise I try real hard to post FACTS to refute claims. The only FACTS that I have at my disposal with regard to the DD companies are the conversations and email messages that I have received from the companies and their representitives and the various releases that from these companies. This is all I have posted.
My characterization of the company as a joke stems from the FACT that as relayed to me by a representitive of the company, that on the verge of commercial production they did not have a handle on what their costs of production were or were unwilling to represent them. I thought joke was a kind way to descibe this scenario.

With regards to your request for guaranteeing delivery of palladium, I have no idea what you are talking about. I do not recommend the purchase or sale of any security, commodity, currency or anything else on this forum. Anyone wishing to draw inferences from what I post and subsequently act upon them is free to do so but ENTIRELY at their OWN RISK.

BTW: Kitco II is the appropriate place for new releases about stocks.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 15:31
Jack Sorry Bob M>(Sorry Bob M):

Bob M: When you consider gold loans, and commodity funds
pushing the price to suit their desires, manipulation may
be a few of the answers for the metals bad performance.
The over priced stock market plus predictions of a bright
future is drawing in money that would otherwise go into
the metals, this along with the strong currency/ weak
currency phenominon pushes speculative monies in those
directions and away from the metals.
Rumor of CB selling doesn't help either - along with the
negative press that the metal are be given
Gold also follows no leader; and we have plenty of them
against gold also.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 15:28
Bob M I don't think so>(I don't think so):

Bob M: When you consider gold loans, and commodity funds pushing the price to suit their desires, manipulation may be a few of the answers for the metals bad performance.
The over priced stock market plus predictions of a bright future is drawing in money that would otherwise go into the metals, this along with the strong currency/ weak currency phenominon pushes speculative monies in those directions and away from the metals.
Rumor of CB selling doesn't help either - along with the negative press that the metal are be given
Gold also follows no leader; and we have plenty of them against gold also.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 15:24

1. Promote Nevada gold mining

2. Confuse Kitcohabitants who see every headline in every mainstream
newspaper as a contra-indicator.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 15:20
Savage (?):
Did anyone notice the front page story on invisible gold, The New Gold Rush, ( smack dab in the middle ) front page of USA Today? What are they trying to do?

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 15:11
Bob @..GPGI Due Diligence Report>(@..GPGI Due Diligence Report):
Cueball: I have done some DD on Global Platinum and Gold. I spoke with the President and the principal technology consultant last year. I also reviewed the INCO report by Peter Fischer and followed-up with INCO on this report. The bottom line is that there is no doubt that GPGI can produce platinum and gold. The problem is that GPGI can not produce material quanitities of precious metals at economic costs. In other words, Barrick, Homestake, and Newmont aren't worried about GPGI's technology or claims. The issues surrounding the fire assay methods and how these conflict with the precious metal results that GPGI can prove is a moot point. GPGI can not produce precious metals in a standard varifiable production function ( that is, beyond a version of a Mom and Pop gold factory ) in sufficient quantities at economic cost. The market really does work most of the time and the market should be telling you something about this stock --- if you are willing to listen.

As far as credentials go, Peter Fischer is somewhere in hiding in Germany the last time I discussed his report with INCO. If INCO really believed that the GPGI properties identified in Peter Fischer's study had a chance in hell to turn-up sufficient anomalies to indicate PGM's they would have optioned the property for study. The geologic model is highly speculative and dose not conform to the macro model typical of Arizona geology.

In general, don't be fooled by geologist credentials. Geological consulting is a highly speculative field that is over-rated. Does the Bre-X salting saga ring a bell ? Do you remeber that some of the world's best geologists and mines analysts were supporting a geologic model in Busang that could not be supported by empirical evidence ? Think about it.

If is too good to be true it probably is not true. That is the case of GPGI. Any open-minded investor would come to similar conclusions.


Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 15:09
Until the squelch function is in place, we still have to deal with people who
violate Kitco posting policy by immolation or shouting them down or whatever
was recommended to deal with other interlopers. Therefore:

without leaning on the caps lock. Whether or not Russia has 5% or 25%
of the world's platinum supply has absolutely nothing to do with Stillwater
Mining, and your opinions about the stability of South Africa are just that.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 15:07
Major Poster @The Battlefield>(@The Battlefield):
Gold Price In One Month = $335 +/- $5.00

Gold Price In Three Months = $355 = +/- $5.00

Gold Price In Six Months = $375 =/- $10.00

Stand fast troops,General Greenspam has a plan and a new secret weapon
to be unveiled tomarro.Har Har Har

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 15:04
Yahoo/Reuters and other news media have been stating recently Russian production of PLATINUM ACCOUNTS FOR ABOUT 20% OF THE WORLD'S TOTAL. I DONT'T THINK SO! Per all my data sources it is closer to 10% of the worldwide total annual production. I believe the reasons for the erroneous figures ARE the following. Once an error hits the media, all news wires pick it up as gospel, and it isthus broadcasted far and wide. Moreover, I believe the media may be confusing mine production with sales of the the white metal.

A number of years ago the Russians were and continue to be the second largest seller of Platinum - behind the behemoth South African supplier of 80-85% of the world's platinum. Conceivably, the Russians may have approached 20% of total annual supplies a number of years ago. But a significant portion of this was coming form inventory. In recent years we all know that precious metals inventory of the Russians has totally been sold off. Furthermore, due to the political upheaval and subsequent miss-management of the Russian mining industry, both gold and platinum mine production have dwindled. Therefore, I believe today's platinum mine production accounts for only about 10% ( if that! ) of the world's total yearly production of the 'Rich Man's Gold.'

If anyone has a realiable data source stating to the contrary, I would be very happy to bring my files up to date.

Since the great bulk of platinum production still comes form South Africa, and the CIS is anything but stable ( politically, economically, monetarily, or any way you wish to cut it ) , it is my personal opinion that the relatively small capitaized STILLWATER MINING ( in Montana )
may welll be an excellent long-term investment. MOREOVER, IT IS REPORTED THAT THEIR PLATINUM RESERVES ARE HUMONGOUS

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 14:49
Jack Any opinions>(Any opinions):

This one from K2 sounds like, er? Any opinions on it?
Bernatz, will it make the dirt machine obsolete?

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 14:41
Bob M>(
6Pack- Your right on the mark, delfation is imminent for the very reason you have stated about all the money going intop one place, and I believe the drop in gold has been signalling this fact for quite awhile now, gold is a truthful indicator of inflation and deflation. I look for the price to drop much further before its over

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 14:27

I wonder if some of the major posters here could give us an idea
where they see gold heading over the next month, three months, and
six months. Just round numbers, but something a little more fleshed
out than up or down.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 14:22
Bridge: major markets galore - enjoy:

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 14:21
2weeks Have_Gun_Will_Travel>(Have_Gun_Will_Travel):
Latest on USSR precious whites:

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 14:14
Jack Symbols>(Symbols):

Try something like, etc., etc. Normally the symbol followed by .to

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 14:13
cueball put yur dukes up & no biting>(put yur dukes up & no biting):

First you use liar. and now joke. It is your Due Diligence
that I suggest is a JOKE.

I have been posting on this Internet for over five years and have never
promoted or hyped a investment for unscrupulous gains.

This forum is about investment discussions & investing. My prescious
metals investments have more than doubled in the last year, and I'm
not talking 4 or 5 figures. Even you wouldn't call that a joke.

I suspect you may have another motive, and so be it, but don't come on here saying you did your diligence on GPGI.

David, can you assure me that Pa/Pd shipments will be met? NO, and
in spite of J Disneys' welcomed comments on S/A, my contacts are not as
positive on their problems.

Are you doubting Peter Fisher's ( INCO report ) qualifications

Were you aware of Mr. Hays credentials

Martyn Hay

Author's credentials

Martyn Hay has a Bachelor of Science honours degree from the University of Leeds, is a
registered Professional Engineer in South Africa and has twenty years experience in extractrive
metallurgy including consulting, plant operation, research and development, process design, project
management and commissioning covering tin, base metals, gold, uranium, sulfuric acid, chromite,
coal and platinum group metals. He has worked for a number of large Mining Houses in South
Africa including Lonrho as Consulting Metallurgist responsible for the technical operation of the
company¹s platinum operations.

At Lonrho responsibilities included developing technology partnerships, directing research and
development, maintaining technical standards and the quality and deployment of metallurgical staff
and assisting in strategic and corporate planning.

In recent years he has completed a number of feasibility studies including a Due Diligence
exercised on the processing capabilities of Lonrho and Impala Platinum as part of a merger option
between the two companies. Successes include a US$50 million improvement in productivity
through enhanced employee capability from the performance evaluation and subsequent
re-engineering of Lonrho's concentrators, and the award of a silver medal from the South African
Institute of Mining and Metallurgy.

Lastly, Three of the four significant principals in this company have a
combined 40+ years with GPGI, without sanctions, halts, etc. and a SEC
investigation that found no wrong doings, instigated because they made claims regarding PGMs. How would you like all your years of hard work
to be called a joke.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 13:59
Bridge Major Market delayed quotes>(Major Market delayed quotes):
I need a string of symbols to enter into Yahoo to get major maket quotes. Thanks.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 13:57
2weeks Just_a_suspicion>(Just_a_suspicion):
Woke up this AM and it seemed so clear - a major economic depression settling over the land. Then this - an hour of silence at Kitco. Eerie, indeed.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 13:18
6pak Inflation/Deflation @ More Information>(Inflation/Deflation @ More Information):
Earl & Vieserre Thank you for your comments. I have provided the
posts, as my minuscule contribution, to a site of considerable
and valuable information.

History is the recital of facts represented as true. Fable, on the other
hand, is the recital of facts represented as fiction....Voltaire, 1764

Government securities, which created vast sums of new money, intensified
the stock market speculation and made the stock market crash and
resultant depression ( 1930's ) a national disaster.

The problem was to get some money back into circulation. So much of the
money normally used to pay rent and food bills had been sucked into
Wall Street that there was no money to carry on the business of *LIVING,*
In many areas, people printed their own money on *WOOD* and *PAPER* for
use in their communities, and this money was *GOOD*, since it represented
*OBLIGATIONS* to each other which people *FULFILLED*

( July 1997, Canada )

Soooo, is deflation-recession-inflation-stagflation what is the take
I suggest it is deflation, and gaining in strength,it isn't going to
provide a wonderful life, but, it is necessary to clear the decks.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 13:08
George Cole big money and big politics>(big money and big politics):
Another possible ( although very unlikely ) trigger for a stock bear -- a SERIOUS move in Washington to limit the influence of big money in politics. Make no mistake -- the total domination of both parties by big money has been a key force driving this bull.

But a serious move to reform campaign financing is much more likely after a market crash than before.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 13:07
TED BUTLER'S incisive and insightful analysis TWO DOWN, AND TWO TO GO provides interesting scenarios & MEANING of PLATINUM & PALLADIUM as leading indicators. SEE Guest Guru:

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 13:04
Bernatz de ventadorm global@pox-sur-dordogne>(global@pox-sur-dordogne):
To All-
Ah am zo appy to zee zat my competition in zee gold
from zee dirt race is so totally ow you zay scrweed up.
Zese poor peuple jus do not ave zee technologie by dam.
Ahm usING zee WOP ( wizard of pyranees ) process and zee
dirt containing zee beautifull metaux MUST be infecTED
with zee zherms. In mah previous report to my dear
shareholDERS I had to advise of zee problems with zee
dreaded black plague zherms which while giVING zee good
result on zee yield of the metaux, sadly killed many of
mah dear emplyees and some ozair peuple in zat village.
Eet mak ne so sad about the peuple because we are a
peuple company but one good result was it reduce zee
head count pretty fast by dam. Also we manage to get
away from zee village tout suite and we do not lose so
much equiptment eizair. Beezness eez beezness.
Ah am now appy to report we are using new improved
zherms in zee process - Zee catalyst ees zee english
pox zherm and it seems to work not zo bad. We have a
beeg sample and we want to sheep eet somewhere or
ozair for zee testing but nobody want to touch eet.
Anyway ahm sure we weel have some results soon and Ah
also believe zees report to zee shareholders ees at least
as good as the one from zee so called Global company.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 12:58
George cole Total Collapse>(Total Collapse):
To clear up any confusion, that review of the Puetz book was not mine. It was copied from the Fiend's Superbear Page.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 12:48
Mike Sheller running out>(running out):
George Cole: Thanks for the review of Steve Puetz''s TOTAL COLLAPSE. That was a kind service to us all. MARY ROSE: Welcome. I predict you'll fit right in!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 12:44
International Analyst, James Dines Rule of Gold Countertrend says: The price of gold tends to move generally opposite to the rest of the stock market. See July 21, 1997 Study at:

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 12:10
Bob @...Marchf15>(@...Marchf15):
If you have the numbers a log chart could be crunched on a spreadsheet and then a chart can be derived.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 11:57
nailz OK...Deflation after Inflation...>(OK...Deflation after Inflation...):
Hey TED.....Send me the article from the urinal...THANKS.....

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 11:51
BillD Ah Ha!!>(Ah Ha!!):
Here is what is behind the Pa/Pl up by limit ( Pa ) and almost limit today. NYMEX September palladium was up $4.65 at $171.00.

Russian shipments of palladium to Japan resumed last week, with the arrival of three tonnes of
palladium at Narita
Airport in Tokyo, but no platinum arrivals have yet been reported, with Russian officials
saying packaging problems are
delaying the shipments.

Meanwhile, sponge palladium lease rates for one month jumped back over 100 pct early
Monday, with Zurich delivery
one month palladium around 70 percent, and one month platinum around 40 pct, refining
sources said.

No Russian spot market deals have yet been done either, traders said.

Can't trust those 1942 lend-lease trucks to make a 2 day delivery!!


Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 11:22
Front To EARL:>(To EARL:):


Just to catch up a bit....

Last night, Ted said to make sure you have something to eat while drinking and here you go and start talking about catching flies at the dining table. I don't think that's what he meant! #2 ... With a combination of BEER, Yukon Jack and BEANS, no wonder it was a Painful experience! My guess is that the combination worked quite well at keep the bugs away though! They need fresh air as I recall. Anyways, if you're reading this, you survived last night, so not to worry too much. Just make sure you open a window a bit eh!


Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 11:21
D.A. I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a cheeseburger today>(I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a cheeseburger today):

What do suppose is behind the 'want payment up front but can't promise delivery in two days' problem?

Maybe they are long Sept Palladium and would like to sell spot and deliver in two months. Very clever these Russians.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 11:13
D.A. huh?>(huh?):

Closer and closer to what?

I took your advice a few months back and called the company's P.R. man. Leaving aside the questions of whether or not there actually exist any precious metals in the dirt, I found it odd that the company after working so hard and being 'moments' away from commercial production could not provide cost estimates for recovery. With all due respect, this is a joke.

With regards to its brethren company IPM, I took the advice of some of its supporters and emailed the company a list of questions which I thought would shed some light on the situation. Oddly enough someone with whom we share office space was considering buying the stock and asked me for an opinion. This was towards middle, late May. Just my luck, they sent me back a message saying that they were too busy to respond. Seems like the I.R. people must be helping with the metallurgy.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 10:46
Can someone point out the working mechanisms of the LME and also if there is a perticipant from India please write to me.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 10:43
Cueball closer & closer>(closer & closer):

Your 00:43

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 10:32
More Gold @OOPS - Try again ---- Ruskies on Platinum: Packaging Problems - It's tuff to wrap up them big bars>(@OOPS - Try again ---- Ruskies on Platinum: Packaging Problems - It's tuff to wrap up them big bars):

Monday July 21 9:46 AM EDT

NY precious metals mixed early, gold slips, PGM up

NEW YORK, July 21 ( Reuter ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures were mixed early Monday, with gold
lower but platinum group metals ( PGMs ) higher, as the complex consolidated after a sharp recovery late last week.

``The fund buying in gold has abated this morning, but it may be that the major player late last week is waiting for
certain levels to be reached before buying again,'' one COMEX floor broker said.

COMEX August gold was down $2.30 at $327.30 after the first hour of trade, following a run up to 11 day highs at
$330.90 Friday.

The August/December spread was back to around $3.60 early, after widening out to around $4.00 an ounce Friday.

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders data, released late Friday, showed funds held record net short positions of
74,588 COMEX gold contracts as of July 15.

COMEX gold open interest saw its highest level in 18 months last week at 222,069 contracts, before a bout of heavy
short covering by funds Thursday and Friday last week.

In the bullion market, spot gold was quoted around $326.60/10 early, compared to the London Monday morning fix at
$328.05, the highest fix since July 3, after gold close around $328.70/20 in New York close Friday.

Gold fixed at a 12 year low early this month at $315.75 in London, in the wake of news of a sale of 167 tonnes of gold
by the Reserve Bank of Australia ( RBA ) , which encouraged massive amounts of extra short selling by hedge funds,
analysts said.

Implied lease rates for gold eased further to around 2.08 percent for one month Monday, from a six month high around
2.60 percent last week, suggesting hedge fund borrowing demand is continuing to ease, traders said.

COMEX September silver was up 1.0 cent at $4.280 an ounce, recovering from a breakdown to contract lows last
week at $414.50.

NYMEX October platinum was up $1.70 at $401.00, after climbing back over $400.00 Friday, for the first time in
two weeks.

NYMEX September palladium was up $4.65 at $171.00.

Russian shipments of palladium to Japan resumed last week, with the arrival of three tonnes of palladium at Narita
Airport in Tokyo, but no platinum arrivals have yet been reported, with Russian officials saying packaging problems are
delaying the shipments.

Meanwhile, sponge palladium lease rates for one month jumped back over 100 pct early Monday, with Zurich delivery
one month palladium around 70 percent, and one month platinum around 40 pct, refining sources said.

No Russian spot market deals have yet been done either, traders said.

``The problem is the Russians want payment up front, but cannot guarantee normal two day delivery for spot
transactions,'' one refining source said.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 10:28
MoreGold @Russians on Platinum packaging problems ---- It's tuff to wrap up them big bars >(@Russians on Platinum packaging problems ---- It's tuff to wrap up them big bars ):

Monday July 21 9:46 AM EDT

NY precious metals mixed early, gold slips, PGM up

NEW YORK, July 21 ( Reuter ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures were mixed early Monday, with gold
lower but platinum group metals ( PGMs ) higher, as the complex consolidated after a sharp recovery late last week.

``The fund buying in gold has abated this morning, but it may be that the major player late last week is waiting for
certain levels to be reached before buying again,'' one COMEX floor broker said.

COMEX August gold was down $2.30 at $327.30 after the first hour of trade, following a run up to 11 day highs at
$330.90 Friday.

The August/December spread was back to around $3.60 early, after widening out to around $4.00 an ounce Friday.

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders data, released late Friday, showed funds held record net short positions of
74,588 COMEX gold contracts as of July 15.

COMEX gold open interest saw its highest level in 18 months last week at 222,069 contracts, before a bout of heavy
short covering by funds Thursday and Friday last week.

In the bullion market, spot gold was quoted around $326.60/10 early, compared to the London Monday morning fix at
$328.05, the highest fix since July 3, after gold close around $328.70/20 in New York close Friday.

Gold fixed at a 12 year low early this month at $315.75 in London, in the wake of news of a sale of 167 tonnes of gold
by the Reserve Bank of Australia ( RBA ) , which encouraged massive amounts of extra short selling by hedge funds,
analysts said.

Implied lease rates for gold eased further to around 2.08 percent for one month Monday, from a six month high around
2.60 percent last week, suggesting hedge fund borrowing demand is continuing to ease, traders said.

COMEX September silver was up 1.0 cent at $4.280 an ounce, recovering from a breakdown to contract lows last
week at $414.50.

NYMEX October platinum was up $1.70 at $401.00, after climbing back over $400.00 Friday, for the first time in
two weeks.

NYMEX September palladium was up $4.65 at $171.00.

Russian shipments of palladium to Japan resumed last week, with the arrival of three tonnes of palladium at Narita
Airport in Tokyo, but no platinum arrivals have yet been reported, with Russian officials saying packaging problems are
delaying the shipments.

Meanwhile, sponge palladium lease rates for one month jumped back over 100 pct early Monday, with Zurich delivery
one month palladium around 70 percent, and one month platinum around 40 pct, refining sources said.

No Russian spot market deals have yet been done either, traders said.

``The problem is the Russians want payment up front, but cannot guarantee normal two day delivery for spot
transactions,'' one refining source said.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:58
Mary-Rose Down Under>(Down Under):
Between RJs urinations and Hepcats evaginations perhaps we need a lady's touch. I read with amusement and am sorry the bull seems to be getting a little lame now. I'm ever so glad Soros Management have upgraded their comments from 'Refused to comment' to 'We can neither confirm nor denigh'......reminds me a little of the standard answer visiting US warships give to local greenies when asked if carrying they are carrying nuclear weapons. As for Steve Peutz new book - is this trying to provide a little optimism so desperately needed or is disaster better at selling books?

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:56
vronsky Gold & Silver Future Good - BUT DOW BEAR TO BEGIN JULY 28>(Gold & Silver Future Good - BUT DOW BEAR TO BEGIN JULY 28):
Astrological Investor interviews expert energy & mining industry entrepreneur/astrologer, who foresees Precious Metals Bull, but Wall Street Bear. SEE Astrological Investor:

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:55
Do you know of a log chart that shows the info you re: to?


Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:54
You are both right. I stole that chart from Barron's this morning.


Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:52
Bob @....need log chart for proper comparison>(@....need log chart for proper comparison):
Marchf15: A log chart would beter represent the rate of change instead of the amount of change. Ditto Student's comment.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:44
John Disney>(
To all-
RJ inspired me -

A brief summary of the new DDeep Arrangement follows.
If one thinks gold will go up, I think DDeep is the
best play in town. Ive compared with Harmony and
( for laughs ) Barrick

------------------ Deep ----- Harmony--- Barrick
Shares,mill--------- 37 --------- 42 -----------373
Price, $ -----------2.25----------4.8-----------20
Market Cap MM$-- 83----------- 204-----------7460
Reserves MM oz ---17.5----------- 27.1---------- 51
$/oz reserves -----4.7------------ 7.5 --------- 146
Capacity thou oz --687------------ 645--------- 3060
$/oz capacity ----121------------- 316--------- 2400
Earnings $/share- 0.36-------------0.59--------- 0.4
P/e Ratio--------- 6.2-------------12.7--------- 50.0
cost $/oz---- 313 --------------331--------- 197

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:44
MACHf15: Excellent comparison. However, top chart has the wrong years - should be 27-29.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:43
Bob @...WDL's question about inflation adjusted debt securities and gold>(@...WDL's question about inflation adjusted debt securities and gold):
Two points need to be considered. The first is that gold is at historically low prices in terms of US$ and inflation is at historically low levels. If you buy US Treasury inflation adjusted debt you risk a decline in the value of the US dollar ( your treasury investment ) in relation to gold price. The second issue is taxation. The sale of gold is considered a capital gain while the receipt of interest is considered regular income. Notwithstanding the short-term ( under 1 yr., less favourable ) or long-term holding periods ( over 1 yr., more tax advantageous ) issue in US tax, capital gains are generally taxed at lower
rates than income.

Insummary, the risk of owning inflation adjusted treasury debt in periods of low inflation and low gold prices is that you could lose the principal value of your debt investment in relation to gold if the latter price increases while interest rates remain low. Prospectively, tax benefits on the realization of a capital gain is better than earning a 'safer' return from interest income on debt instruments.


Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:39
TED @chainsaw>(@chainsaw):
To the woods.....Comex Gold down 2.20....Dow down 13....S+P down 2.02...
BBL dudes!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:33
This ought to make all the doomsdayers happy....


Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:20
vronsky IS 1929 BEING REPLAYED THIS YEAR? - by Guest Guru Ure>(IS 1929 BEING REPLAYED THIS YEAR? - by Guest Guru Ure):
There is an uncanny similarity between the DOW from January 1920 to April 1930 AND TODAY’S DOW track record. Avoid reading this study at your own peril - GUEST GURU URE:

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:19
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
S+P futures up 1.0

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:13
Scotty no threads>(no threads):
I agree with the no threads contingent. IMHO, Bart is right on the money with his strategic plan for the Kitco site. The obnoxious factor is very small around here. Especially compared to some newsgroup sites that I've seen!

Also, I believe anyone on an .edu site is there because of free bandwidth. That will catch up with them sooner or later as this is cannot be the only site they are wasting bandwidth on.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:11
TED @oops>(@oops):
That's comex GOLD down 2.10!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:09
TED @comex>(@comex):
Comex down 2.10 and Silver up 1.5 cents...

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:09
BillD Pl and Pa>(Pl and Pa):
Pa is up almost limit again this morning...up 4.15 last look!! Guess those Russian 1942 lend-lease trucks have not installed that karborator yet, huh Wonder what's really happening

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:07
George Cole- Thanks for the Puetz book review. I have been following his letters on Gold Eagle. I too find his work somewhat lacking. For example, what makes him think the government will not revert to their old ways and fix the price of gold or outlaw private ownership altogether. Is a default plan presented to adress these possablities?

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 09:02
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
S+P futures UP .25

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:56
capnkev @thetrigger>(@thetrigger):
Cherokee, ya got mail.

D.A. what say you this AM

Earl, hows yer' head this mornin'?

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:55
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
S+P futures now only down .60

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:55
D.A. such.prose>(such.prose):

Just caught up with the morning reading. Much inspired prose last night. More inspiring than Irabu. Off to the big city.


IDT: Thanks for the lesson in modern construction theory.

Donald: Sorry to point this out but M growth is actually accelerating. Perhaps you can get me with the next derivative.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:50
Cherokee, been short corn since thursday.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:50
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort: Your Urinal sir.....

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:44
TED @Geff>(@Geff):
Geff: You should have something in your mailbox....

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:43
PeanutGallery A question on US government and DEBT>(A question on US government and DEBT):
A question from the PeanutGallery. I would be very interested if anyone could debunk the following: I was talking to a friend about financial collapse and other related subjects, and my friend who fancies himself quite knowledgeable asked me what could possibly cause a collapse ( then he stared at me, motionless, with his mouth open waiting for my answer - it was funny because I could count his fillings and see the partially chewed sweet and sour shrimp of which we were partaking ) . Of course I said, Debt! ( loudly as if it were a powerful incantation ) . And he sez - Hey, all them folks talking about US government debt are all wrong, don't listen to them. ( What!? ) They say the government owes 15 trillion dollars and will never pay it off? That is a laugh! The US government not only has the power to tax it has approximately 57 trillion dollars in assets! If push ever came to shove these assets could be sold to pay the ENTIRE debt - or whatever portion was required to bring the crisis under control. So, listen Little Buddy, don't you be worrying about debt - it is a red herring!

Now my friend could not point me to a source for his 57 trillion dollar it true? How to find out US government total assets? Is his argument valid at all?

Thanks Kitco Ginesseses!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:41
PeanutGallery A question on US government and DEBT>(A question on US government and DEBT):
A question from the PeanutGallery. I would be very interested if anyone could debunk the following: A was talking to a friend about financial collapse and other related subjects, and my friend who fancies himself quite knowledgeable asked me what could possibly cause a collapse ( then he stared at me, motionless, with his mouth open waiting for my answer - it was funny because I could count his filling and see the partially chewed sweet and sour shrimp of which we were partaking ) . Of course I said, Debt! ( loudly as if it were a powerful incantation ) . And he sez - Hey, all them folks talking about US government debt are all wrong, don't listen to them. What? They said the government owes 15 trillion dollars and will never pay it off? That is a laugh! The US government not only has the power to tax it has approximately 57 trillion dollars in assets! If push ever came to shove these assets could be sold to pay the ENTIRE debt - or whatever portion was required to bring the crisis under control. So, listen Little Buddy, don't you be worrying about debt - it is a red herring!

Now my friend could not point me to a source for his 57 trillion dollar it true? How to find out US government total assets? Is his argument valid at all?

Thanks Kitco Ginesseses!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:39
HI JIN! Just got your missive and will read NOW....The stock market will open lower but it's a beautiful day on the ocean...I see your market had a good Monday....S+P futures down 2.50....Happy trading!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:36
nomercy Interest Rates>(Interest Rates):
Hong Kong interest rates surged to a two-month high,

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:34
TED @ocean>(@ocean):
Comex report: Gold down .70, Silver up 3.5 cents, Platinum up .70, Palladium up 6.15......S+P futures down 2.60...German Dax down 2.5%....
Long bond down 7 ticks...Old bell-weather Big Blue reports its earnings after the closing bell with the consensus est @ 1.42....World waits with baited breath for two days of Greasepan's ramblings that unfortunately start tomorrow...

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:32
nomercy Dubai>(Dubai):
Despite a fall-off in June imports, year-on-year comparisons showed robust growth in the emirate's appetite for gold.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:29
George Cole Puetz>(Puetz):
Review of Total Collapse' by Steve Puetz

Book Review: Total Collapse

Overall rating: *** ( out of five stars )

[ Book cover: A lighter setting a stock certificate on fire. ]

Author Steve Puetz' ( pronounced pitts ) new book which predicts a
financial meltdown in the near future completes a trimuvirate of
apocalyptic texts that include James Davidson and William Rees-Mogg's
The Great Reckoning and Robert Prechter's At the Crest of the Tidal
Wave. Unlike Davidson and Rees-Mogg's work which had a heavy emphasis
on social issues or Prechter's fascination with the Elliot Wave theory,
Puetz' book is concisely focused on the consequences of a fiat money
system ( paper currency made legal tender by law and not back by gold or
silver ) .

In seventeen chapters, Puetz presents his view that our government's
policy of fiat money has created the current financial mania that will
end with a Total Collapse. The author's writing style is easy to read
and numerous simple ( but clear ) charts are supplied to support his
main points. Archaic terminology is avoided and readers without a
background in finance will not get lost or bored with the book's content.

The author's conclusions are very similar to the other financial
Armageddon books and he foresees the following possibilities:

. The Dow crashing to below 500 within the next few years.

. A deflationary depression as the decades old fiat money system

. Unemployment reaching levels of 25% or more.

. Home prices collapsing 70% to 95%.

. Government guarantees such as welfare and Social Security will end
or be severely curtailed.

. Increasing crime and social chaos.

Oddly enough, my main criticism with this book is that the author did not
go into much detail on how the reader can protect themselves other than
turn all of their assets into gold or silver. Puetz makes a pitch for his
newsletter, but I never got the idea that there would be any safety in a
Total Collapse even if you had large quantities of gold and silver
coins. For example, where would you keep it and how would you protect
it? In reading the last couple of chapters of the book, I felt that
there needed to be a few chapters to describe the aftermath of a Total

Despite these reservations, I recommend the book as an alternative to
the more involved The Great Reckoning and At the Crest of the Tidal
Wave. The book is very current ( it has a reference to Greenspan's
irrational exuberance speech ) and is loaded with anecdotes abouts manias
past and present. Even if you do not subscribe to the idea of a financial
Rapture, the concepts that Puetz presents are certainly worth

For more information on the book contact

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:26
panda @!>(@!):
NDX recovered last night only to start diving again this A.M.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:24
panda @>(@):
WDL -- But Rubin promised that the markets would be O.K. yesterday! :- ) )

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:23
check your mail box...ting ting....!looks liked bull run out of steam?
...let see to nite...oh...sorry to day!
save trade......good nite....

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:21
WDL @ to lighten your morning>(@ to lighten your morning):
European markets all tanking! Looks like an interesting day on Wall Street...Something to lighten your morning.

It seems there was a hermit that lived on a deserted island off the coast
of Maine...just he and a group of terns...One evening, while trying to get a good night's sleep, the hermit was awakened by the clatter of the nearby
nesting terns. So provoked, the hermit got up..grabbed a fistful of stones and started pelting the terns with every rock available...that succeeded
in quieting the birds. However, as fate would have it, the terns got their revenge. As the hermit lay asleep..the terns returned with vengeance..
killing the hermit with their pointed beaks. The moral of the story:

Never leave a tern unstoned... Or, if you wish: One good tern deserves

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:20
nomercy Soros>(Soros):
Rumors began circulating in the Treasury market late Thursday renowned investor George Soros had sold bonds and 2-year
notes as well as 30-year bonds, possibly with the intention of moving into gold. A spokesman for Soros Management contacted
by Bridge News declined comment on the talk it had sold up to $800 million in US Treasuries. We can't confirm or deny it,
the representative said.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 08:05
Ted--I would like to see the commodities article. Thanks in advance.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 07:45
Ted, ship that article on over at your leisure. I'd like to read it. Well, I'm off to the spa to lose this New Mexico taco belt.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 07:43
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn):
Morning Ted, anything good in the urinal this morning? As Ted would say I'm suffering from taco belt this morning. Yes, Panda, I'm finding those bread making machines to be from the dark side of fitness. Looks like my soybeans are getting crushed into tofu this morning. My wheat is being reshaped into cracked wheat cereal and as for my metals, there just mght be some glint other than in my eye. Here's the little holliday story.

A man goes to his dentist because he feels something wrong in his
mouth. The dentist examines him and says, that new upper plate I
put in for you six months ago is eroding. What have you been
eating? The man replies, All I can think of is that about four months
ago my wife made some asparagus and put some stuff on it that was
delicious...Hollandaise sauce. I loved it so much I now put it on
everything --- meat, toast, fish, vegetables, everything. Well, says
the dentist, that's probably the problem. Hollandaise sauce is made
with lots of lemon juice, which is highly corrosive. It's eaten away
your upper plate. I'll make you a new plate, and this time use
chrome. Why chrome? asks the patient. The dentist replies, It's
simple. Everyone knows that there's no plate like chrome for the

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 07:36
TED @canada>(@canada):
Article in Wall Street Urinal commodity section on Inflation-Deflation scenario...if anyone wants it I'll send it to ya....S+P futures down BIG!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 07:35
Cherokee--Looks to my eye like a 1-2-3 botton may be fixin in sept beans.
I am not sure what inspired your position, but I'm happy to be flat at this juncture.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 07:29
TED @cherokee>(@cherokee):
Cherokee:What do you want me to do today...shuffle some papers...type some letters....screen your calls.....take off some nasty missives....I love this job!...but I want a damn raise! even if there ain't no inflation....

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 07:21
cherokee @whatcha-talkin-about?-->(@whatcha-talkin-about?--):
regular contributor---

yes, i recognize your handle----
so, what's your point? ( thanks earl! )

sept. beans limit move down------yes!!!!!!!!!

consider ALL things ( motive, motive, motive, of granville )
and then make an intelligent, thoughtful reply!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 06:58
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort:WAKE UP!.....Am off ta read The Urinal....

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 06:56
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Ali ( 1:09 ) Cape Breton IS a beautiful place and where I really wanted to live here ( Meat Cove ) really is at the end of the earth...Cherokee ( 23:30 ) Thanks for the job!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 06:54
Poorboys hangover@morning>(hangover@morning):
Mike Sheller re: 21:11 Good Morning I will get back to you in a few days slavery calls.I had 10 bears I mean beers.Happy Trails.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 06:52
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Most world equity markets generally DOWN with Taiwan a notable exception as it hit a 7 year high.....Europe down BIG...EBN Gold down .50

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 06:50
panda @>(@):
South African gold producer news, gold is at unsustainably low price levels;

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 06:37
Steve - Perth>(
DONALD: Your post On March 1, 1933, in his last act as President, Herbert Hoover signed an amended bankruptcy act into law. This law extended the time for payments and prevented creditors from reclaiming property of individuals, not corporations is fascinating. Last November, the Federal Govt in Australia brought in new a Credit Act that allows home owners ( only ) to default on their home mortgages due to hardship etc, for an extended period of time. Then they can resume payment ( ie. Debt moratorium ) . Hence we moved out of doing 1st mortgages in that end of the market ( which is HIGHLY competitive now ) . Kitco is worth studying. You learn something every day. Keep it up mate!!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 06:29
Steve - Perth>(
6PAK: Whenever you speak to our Australian members of Parliament, they scoff & scorn you can't create credit, that is fairy tale stuff. That unfortunately, is why we are in such a big mess. OF COURSE credit & money is brought into & out of circulation. Fiat money is our undoing. The pollies are either naive or blatant deceptive liars. Remember, where the money is, the power follows.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 06:17
Steve - Perth @any charts are good charts also>(@any charts are good charts also):
Australia seen becoming post-EMU safe haven
PANDA: They mentioned Aussie investors turning towards Australian Corporate Debt. I have been looking at the County Nat West Enhanced Cash Fund lately. It invests in all sorts of things, including well hedged secondary profitable Corporate Debt ( in large companies ) . Cash Management Rates are around 4.5 to 5% currently, but the County Fund returned 11.5% return this year. We are using direct first mortgages for larger clients, returning around 9.5% pa average ( fixed for three years ) . We were getting 11% 6 months ago. 2nd mortgages were 12 to 14%. Not had eh!!! Our LVR's are fairly conservative. We figure if the banks crash, & the economy tanks into a huge depression, our client still has security over a property, regardless of what it is worth. Sell it in future decades if they have to. That is better than getting back 10c in the dollar in a huge derivative driven banking collapse. What we really need is for Bank shares to collapse. That will drive a stake through the hearts of the share investors with nerves of steel ( at the moment ) . It is amazing how shaky people were only 3 years ago. All forgotten!!!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 06:11
Looks like general equities are off to a rough start this week.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 05:21
Steve - Perth>(
The insomniac awakens. It's dinner time!!! I don't like what's coming, but I must admit a fully fledged currency collapse is quite exciting really. Yes, I am a masochist. Particularly if you don't have any cash & you don't have any debt.
CHEROKEE: I'm not convinced that gold has fully bottomed yet. I am probably totally wrong, but I reckon that gold still has a good chance of hitting 300. I was saying this to a Gold Mining manager this afternoon. He is the executor of his now deceased Brother in Law's will. ( The one I referred to the other day who died tragically in the mine accident ) . He looked me in the eye in a very piercing fashion. His body language said he didn't to believe me, but his eyes said that he feared I was right. I hope I am wrong.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 03:07
Ali @sunshineland>(@sunshineland):
Leaner,what bearing a you talking about?There are bearings made of steel or bronze or rubis.If you are talking about loosing your bearing, maybe a shrink would know what those bearings are made of. ( lost mine a long time ago )

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 03:06
Ali @sunshineland>(@sunshineland):
Leaner,what bearing a you talking about?There are bearings made of steel or bronze or rubis.If you are talking about loosing your bearing, maybe a shrink would know what those bearings are made of. ( lost mine a long time ago )

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 02:38
Leaner help>(help):
What's a bearing made out of

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 02:36
Leaner ohoh>(ohoh):
I think I blew a bearing!!!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 02:28
Leaner mundaymorning>(mundaymorning):
Sister golden Hair surprise
Still a reminance in everyones mind
Today you'll find
Gold is still on everyones Mind!!!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 02:12
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home):
D.A. You just don't understand modern home construction. Just look at how those homes in Homestead Florida stood up to hurricane Andrew. If they had used all that heavy stuff in their construction, a lot of people might have gotten hurt. I'd rather be hit by a hollow core door any day as opposed to one of those solid oak jobs.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 02:01
To Mr. Gump @>(@):

EBN gold down $1.10

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 01:53
Lurker2 @>(@):

Bas, That third cowpoke must be a gold bug! :- )

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 01:50
Bas Doing it Tough>(Doing it Tough):
I apologise in advance if anyone finds this offensive.

Three cowboys are sitting around a campfire, out on the lonesome prairie, each with the bravado for which cowboys are famous - so a night of tall tales begins.

The first says I must be the meanest, toughest cowpoke there is. Cos just the other day, a bull got loose and gored six men before I wrestled it to the ground by the horns, with my bare hands, all the time whistling Dixie.

The second can't stand to be bested. Why that's nothin. I was amblin along jus yesterday and a 15 foot rattler slid out and made a move on me, reared up hissin and rattlin. So I just grabbed that snake and bit his head off, and sucked the poison down like it was a shot of whiskey. And I'm here today, the toughest bastard you ever did see.

The third cowboy remained silent, slowly stirring the coals with his penis.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 01:39
Forest Gump (paths)>(
down 4 to 324, what happened? Well Ted there may be some time yet to get some more gold shares

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 01:27
Regular Contributor @another hepcat?>(@another hepcat?):
Cherokee: ( Spit!

Whoa, call off the attack dogs. Son, grab a beer ( that is if you're of legal drinking age ) , take a few deep breaths and chill out!

This site is extremely worthwhile as a place for the intelligent exchange of ideas and debates. If you don't want to be viewed as just another hepcat, then follow the lead of the many distinguished contributers who can agree or disagree without mounting personal attacks. Notice how guys like RJ, George Cole, etc., conduct themselves. They don't always agree and they're not into personal attacks. The last thing we need is another self-appointed critic such as yourself to tell us who we should or shouldn't be listening to.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 01:09
Ali @sunshineland>(@sunshineland):
My what one misses being away for a weekend.
THOSANDNEER your post20:18;all I can say :dream on!
Ted;glad you are doughter was in Cape Breton and she says its a beautyful place,so now I can believe you like it at the end of the world.
My comment about the EMU;If this baby is ever born and is born alive, it will be very sick and I don't believe the parents will have the staminia to nurse it through to adulthood. ( just my opinion based on the knowlegde of the european mentality )
Another thought about the CB's selling their gold,which I can't grasp.They are selling their gold to get a better return on their money?The interest is the lowest it has been and they sell it because they want to make a better return?Would it not have made more sense to sell it when the interest rate was 12% or higher?Sorry fellows,this simple fellow cannot buy this argument!
And another argument;inflation or deflation.We all know or should know,to govern ( and to pay back old debt ) can only be done successfully by INFLATION-keep that in mind - always!
And Tort,keep up your good work, cheering up the crowds here.
Oh ja,Mooney and John I hope you guys make me rich someday.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 01:07
aurophile ===========>(===========):
Donald: this tramway moves so fast that people you were speaking to on the upride are now long gone. nevertheless, while it is true that credit improperly extended simply disappears--as do stock values and real estate values in a decline, without an offsetting profit to the opposite party--the extent of the credit loss is a marketing cost or general cost of doing business. such losses have been honed to a level which is within the range of continued profit. if profit is increasing so too can the credit loss factor, within reason and gaap. and all of it is hedged, unless the operatives are substandard. thus despite credit losses and evaporation, the fact is that credit is increasing at a very rapid rate and that price softness is being used up. there is a certain elasticity or delay in these things which, when once exceeded, results in an inflationary reversal. bobby rubin's smug reassurances on the sunday am tv liberal hour do not impress me that the credit/inflation cycle has been repealed. as D.A. says, the disinflationary assumptions built into the stat cycle are bogus,and i can hear D.A.'s cat pissing at every stage of the consumer price chain from four rooms down the hall.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 00:43
RJ Earl>(Earl):
My point exactly! Only now do you realize: This is not the first time they have peed in your cup. When will we fight back? We give them billions, our wheat feeds their elite and proletariat alike. Where is the gratitude? They dangle the world at the end of a platinum wire, slowly dipping us underneath seas of gullibility, finally raising us, gasping for breath, and clutching feebly at whatever egregious tales they feed us. Got your wallet you say? Serves you right for finding their fanciful inventions amusing.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 00:33
DJ San Juans (I wish)>(San Juans (I wish)):
Steve - Perth: If the CB meeting in Shanghai has a video link, slick willy himself will probably attend.

Refer: I can personally vouch for the fact that the S. African gold stock do worst in a down market. I haven't experienced the other part yet! However, what goes down must come up ( I hope ) . You have your choice of many good mines that have been brutalized. Good luck. The Durban Deep, Blyvoor, and Buffles companies which are merging have been hit very hard, and are worth a look. John Disney has posted many times on these and others. Search for his posts.

Auroelf: Re: Vancouver BC, take the Grouse Mtn. tram for the view, not the food. A few miles west on Highway 1 in North Vancouver is the Salmon House on the Hill. Great NW atmosphere, fabulous evening view ( if no fog ) , and salmon as good as any I have had anywhere.

Re: Orcas, first you must downshift into low to mesh with pace of life on the islands. You can do this on the ferry ride over. Unlike the high spots in Vancouver and Victoria, Orcas requires leisurely savoring. Sunday brunch at Rosario Resort is grand. It was the private home of one of Seattle's shipbuilder barons and is crammed with history. The view from the top of Mt. Constitution is worth the drive - highest point in the San Juans. A marguarita or two on the deck of the restaurant/lounge at Deer Harbor, followed by a stroll along the bluff to the south to watch the sun go down is a great way to end a day. You can still catch the last ferry out. Orcas Island is a gem and one of my favorite places. Enjoy - and let me know if you find any other highlights I might have missed.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 00:27
bernatz de ventadorm le fou@hepcat-sur-arriege>(le fou@hepcat-sur-arriege):
For Madame Barb-ette@barbedoe ranch july 20 11.47
( she sound so fascinaTING ) - I also make zee deetto.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 00:23
6pak Inflation/Deflation @ Government (the people) will Cause ?>(Inflation/Deflation @ Government (the people) will Cause ?):
SENATOR ROBERT L. OWEN testifying before the House Committee on Banking
and Currency in 1938, said:

I wrote into the bill which was introduced by me in the Senate on June
26, 1913, a provision that the powers of the System should be employed
to promote a stable price level, which meant a dollar of stable
purchasing, debt-paying power. ** It was stricken out.** The powerful
money interests got control of the Federal Reserve Board through Mr.
Paul Warburg, Mr. Albert Strauss, and Mr. Adolph C. Miller and they were
able to have that secret meeting of May 18 1920, and bring about a
contraction of credit so violent it threw five million people out of

In 1920 that Reserve Board deliberately caused the *PANIC OF 1921* The
same people, unrestrained in the stock market, expanded credit to a
great excess between 1926 and 1929, raised the price of stocks to a
fantastic point where they could not possibly earn dividends, and when
the people realized this, they tried to get out, resulting in the Crash
of October 24, 1929

Governor W.P.G. Harding of the Federal Reserve Board testified in 1921
The Federal Reserve Bank is an institution owned by the stockholding
member banks. The Government has not a dollar's worth of stock in it

However, the Government does give the Federal Reserve System the use of
its billions of dollars of credit, and this gives the Federal Reserve
its characteristic of a central bank, the power to issue currency on the
Governments credit

W. Randolph Burgess, of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, stated
before the Academy of Political Science in 1930 that:
In its major principles of operation the Federal Reserve System is no
different from other banks of issue, such as the Bank of England, the
Bank of France, or the Reichsbank.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 00:21
Mike Sheller
I realize that my post regarding Flation may have sounded some what
equivical, however,since I don't see stability in the markets my point is
that the sequence of events will be a contraction of the credit markets
followed by a printing party.I ,in no way,wanted to dismiss the interesting discussion on this subject earlier in the evening.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 00:20
RJ: Yeah, I agree. It's also conspiratorial. I was laughing so hard at that last KGB post - done at your expense, I might add - anyway, I was laughing so hard, I did not notice some sneaky KGB bastard snuck up behind me and stole my wallet. When I turned around, he peed in my coffee cup. ....... maybe it was some out at elbows metals broker. I dunno. I just know I'm broke and that had to be the way it happened.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 00:14
Nominations are being taken for Blood Boiling posts of the day. I'll open the nominations with one from GSC @ 20:58. I'm genuinely surprised no one commented on it. While reading it many things will come to mind. Armed insurrection is prominent.

The second is from 6pak @22:19. Sound stuff of the historical sort. And further indication of how bankrupt the system really is. Both articles are but one more example of whose interests are really being served. For those in doubt; do not look in the mirror while asking the question.

The internet will one day prove to be the undoing of these consummate jerks. ..... in a hunert years or so.

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 00:13
RJ Who you gonna' believe?>(Who you gonna' believe?):
Damnable KGB lies!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 00:06
Mike Sheller @Mom>(@Mom):
ROB: Give my best to your Mom from a fellow astrologer! Nite All!

Date: Mon Jul 21 1997 00:01
rob gstd>(gstd):
Hello Mike:

I am going to fax the GSTD stuff to my mom who is always doing her charts.


Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:58
Mike Sheller @ROB>(@ROB):
ROB: vronsky is ( as usual ) correct. When you get into that address, you'll be in the LATEST post. Just scroll down to the bottom ( after reading every word, of course ) and click on April 27 for report on GSTD. Thanks - sorry about the confusion..

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:54
Mike Sheller yum>(yum):
CHEROKEE: Rice is even BETTER with black beans, fried porkchops, and a slice of avocado.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:52
ROB & MIKE SHELLER: The website is:

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:51
Mike Sheller Rhyme in time>(Rhyme in time):
RHYME: I think you are the very person to anoint. Rhyme, I do believe you've put your finger on the point. You've given us the vision of the future of our nation. Of course its plain to see, we're headed for a FLATION!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:50
Cmax Reply to Donald>(Reply to Donald):
The Bankruptcy Act that you describe from the 30’s takes into consideration PRIVATE paper held on properties that were held were deflated, as they accepted whatever they ( the holder of the mortgage ) could get to satisfy their immediate needs. This time around, it will be the goverment itself that is holding all the defaulted loans, and they will simply print their way addition to all the “bankrupcy incentives” that they will offer. It is a whole new game this time ( thanks to FDIC, fanny mae, freddy mac, free gold ownership, and no gold standard ) and hyper-inflation seems set to prevail.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:30

as my secretary reported, i live close to houston, texas.
we have been innundated so far this year, and are way above
average. there was so much rain early this year it delayed
planting of the rice crop. they are only going to get one
crop instead of the usual two. this will be a strong play
after the first harvest, due to a shortfall from their forecast.
should double the price. hey rice is ok, especially if you
have knowledge.

see everybody on top of the mountain monday--------------!; )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:30
If deflation is about to insue due to deteriorating
credit conditions perhaps it's just as likely that the
Fed and other National Banks will inflate to compensate.Which I guess
means that there may be no contradiction or conflict in the apparently
opposing points of view...any comments.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:27
Mike Sheller knock on any door>(knock on any door):
ROB: If that address doesn't let you in, go to and click on Astrological Investor. And while you're there, be sure to read every wonderful word!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:24
Mike Sheller GSTD>(GSTD):
ROB: If you haven't done so already, please see my article on GSTD at Gold-Eagle at

There's an updated PRICE chart as well if you click on the words GOLD STANDARD at the beginning of the piece. If you are talking about the Horoscope ( bless your heart ) , I ran one out based on incorporation date of November 28, 1972. It's a solar chart calculated automatically for noon, EDT. The important point is that the Sun and Neptune in this baby are conjuncting at 5 and 6 Sagittarius, and Pluto is gonna run right into them starting this winter, and for the next year. This is usually potent for a corporation's stock price. Seeing as the price is down now, I must conclude that the Pluto hit will either put it out of business, or give liftoff. Buy more in the Fall at any significant weakness.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:21
TED @bedtimeforbonzo>(@bedtimeforbonzo):
Nikkei 225 down 1.32%....EBN Gold down .75....Goodnight ALL!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:16
Mike Sheller @Donald>(@Donald):
DONALD: My point exactly! Nowadays the computers will calculate how much money will be needed to make up for bankruptcy extinguished supply. And some for the pot! Maybe the same computer will run the printing press...they already do.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:12
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort: Where the hell ya been?...We's having a hell of a party here...
and stay away from that kitchen or ya might get a case of taco belt...
I'm hoping for a pullback in gold ( don't tell anyone ) so I can buy some more gold shares on the cheap....that said,there will be no pullback!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:11
cherokee @war-council-----paint-for-all---it will be needed this week!!!!>(@war-council-----paint-for-all---it will be needed this week!!!!):

just the first of many limit moves due this week.
the leaders on the way up, usually lead the way
down. let the games begin, my gold options are
ready to assist with the transfer of wealth from
the anti-gold-for-lunch-bunch, to those who under-
stand what gold signifies. a secure store of wealth.
the only difference for the last 13 years has been
what people were told be the very same manipulators.
people never KNOW AS MUCH AS YOU think they know!!!
the genie is coming out of the bottle, he just happens
to be a green jin. with no master to control him, the
world will be his, again. let the paper-tiger scream
his own death knell, the hunt is almost over. all
that remains is the thud as the arrow pierces its'
heart, and the taking of the skin by the gold-bugs
who've stalked him for aeons upon aeons.

cherokee!; ) harvester of the bean buyers, and recognizer of the truth.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:10
Ron Round Turn>(Round Turn):
Savage: Lind-Waldock has a $7/option round turn commission for lots of 100 or more options provided the time to expiration is over two months and the option premium is less than $26. If the premium is between $26 and $50, the round turn goes to $9/option; and in general, the greater the premium, the more you'll pay in commissions. However, the less time 'til expiry and the greater the lot size, the cheaper the RT. I have their commission schedule here. If you're interested in comparison shopping any particular options trade, let me know. My email is ( No, I do not work for them, or anyone in the business ) .

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:08
panda @zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz):
Tortfeasor -- Those machines are evil! They fill the house with that wonderful smell... If you weren't hungry before.... Those machines will do it to you everytime! There is nothing like fresh bread! Mmmmmmmmmmmm.

Time to turn in. Good night all. The times, they are getting interesting.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:08
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MIKE SHELLER: You guys are keeping me up past bedtime! The Fed did supply plenty of money, ie increased the monetary base. It was availavble to your local banker. It was the local bankers who were afraid to lend it out. The numbers appeared to contract only because more dollars were being extinguished by bankruptcy than could be created by the Fed. They really did try, but to no avail.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:06
TED @earl>(@earl):
Earl ( 22:54 ) Sounds like the fishin trip I was on last week in upstate New York....Puetz:Cherokee lives in TEXAS,the home of the Houston Rockets and Hakeeeeeem......

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:04
DONALD.....SORRY to report to you, but where I am , banks are looking to find sound borrowers at prime + 2%....If you bargain with them here you can get an unsecured prime +1 1/2% with a perfect background.....Secured prime +1% will fly....NO SHORTAGE OF CREDIT HERE !!!!!!!!Banks can not find enough borrowers !!!!!! Looks like inflation to me........

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:03
Ted, all that talk of eating and drinking is driving me to the kitchen. I went out this past weekend and bought myself a hard asset--an Ultra bread maker. Now that's an investment that's not going to go down in value. Set it last night--woke this morning to the smell and taste of hot whole wheat bread and strawberry jam. Now, can gold do that for a person?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 23:02
Vieserre home>(home):
S. Puetz - thanks for the reply. 6pak, thanks for the information.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:58
Mike Sheller & another thing...>(& another thing...):
One further comment. During the last major deflation, from 1929 to 1933 the US money stock decreased by one third. This is a humongous figure. This was allowed by a Federal Reserve ostensibly set up to regulate the growth of the money supply. We know now what they did to bring about the financial bubble of the 1920's, of which the current stock boom is a literal carbon copy. The difference this time around may be that the chronic debt and inflation machine that has arisen since the 1960's is in place, and well primed to rev up and counterract a deflating money supply without missing a beat. In the last go-round, they still had barely taken the new statist toy of a Central Bank out of the box, let alone read the instructions. Now they are very adept at keeping the paper coming. Stagnation? Yes. True deflation? Mebbe not. Hyperinflation? Could very well be.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:58
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NAILZ: That fist full of money is credit money, not cash money. That house price went up on no money down deals. Again, that is credit money. Vacations and houses have to be paid for eventually with cash money. When they run out of credit money, and cash money, you have deflation big time.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:58
panda @>(@):
speed, nailz -- The bottom line is this, in a deflation the currency increases in purchasing power. Currrency = Debt. How will the government pay that debt? It will either extend ( defer ) payment or... inflate. The only other choice is the dark ages, total monetary collapse. It isn't going to happen, not as long as they have paper and ink! :- ) )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:57
Cherokee: I agree, soybeans could be down sharply because of widespread rain in Iowa. Where do you live? And how much rain have you gotten in your area? We still need rain in Northwestern Indiana. We have only had .1 of rain during July.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:56
rob GSTD>(GSTD):
Hello Mike:

Where can I locate you gold standard chart? This company is the biggest single postion I have.



Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:54

Though superannuated, I think I could still give a good account of myself if faced with a carton of Old Style. ..... I remember a time.... t'was in the Kamloops country as I recall. Yes it waaaaas. Said the lake was turnin' over. Yes, they diiiiid. ...... Wasn't a trout to be had in a hunert miles. 'N all we had was bacon, beans and many cases of Old Style with several fifths of Yukon Jack for chaser. ...... How painful it is to recall.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:53
panda @>(@):
Mike Sheller -- You could deflate the market by knocking twenty to forty percent off, and then have it go no where for ten or fifteen years. This would not cause a 'great depression', but would, in time, take care of the stock bubble. The key is that the currency is not tied to anything, so it can be anything. It's a tremendous ace to have up your sleeve. After all, how many people actually know what their money is? ( Let alone care! )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:52
Donald: It does look like a real blood-bath is forming for the stock market tomorrow. Tonight's fall in the OTC market is equal to about 160 points down on the DJIA.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:51
TED @canada>(@canada):
Ain't we gettin precise tonight.....EBN Gold down .38

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:50
ALL......From where I sit it looks like inflation...I see too much money, everybody has all they need plus some. I see real estate values going up every day, every time I go to the grocery the prices are up.... people on vacation with a fist full of money....Am I missing something ...Is the deflation to come after inflation ( as I believe ) or is deflation around the corner..? I do see an increase in bankruptcies and lower CRB prices.....

HELP ....!!!!!I prepared for inflation.!!!!!!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:50
Donald: Your knowledge is very extensive. Thanks for sharing here.
Donald & Puetz: The defense against deflation is very different than for inflation. If I accept the premise that deflation is coming, or already happening, then it follows that I should pay off debt, not incur more. ( Ouch ) What else? I don't follow the argument that gold/silver will increase in purchasing power in a deflationary environment. It seems rather that holding dollars would be better. Any help is appreciated.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:47
Donald @Home>(@Home):
That NASDAQ number is saying that Bill Gates is going to bum for bus fare to get home from work tomorrow night.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:46
TED @front>(@front):
Congrats Front!!...makes me feel OLD....Checked out the states and my decision is to stay in CANADA....cause their beer is better and Bubba Clintok don't live here.....Another beautiful moon shimmering on a calm ocean....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:45
Mike Sheller ( 21:28 ) : Hear, hear! We have thrown overboard the values of forebears and replaced them with absolutely nothing. ..... Paraphrasing HL Mencken: It is as if we were seated at a banquet and yet content ourselves by catching and eating flies.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:44
Mike Sheller I see it to the Max>(I see it to the Max):
CMAX: While I am open to both the deflationary and inflationary scenario potentials, I have to admit I am also leaning toward hyperflation as the ultimate danger ahead, for essentially the reason that there is no official tie of paper to gold. The inflation, so to speak, has ALREADY occurred. The increase in money and credit, and issued debt instruments of the US government as bank assets, has been significant. The inflated financial structures of this society are based on consumption and expedience, and will be propped up at any cost if there is a severe dislocation of any kind. I agree also that the situation re ownership of gold will be different next time. Very different. I think those who are looking for a DEflation are aware of the unusual financial stock bubble, and debt level of both government and consumer. They expect that the wind has to come out of such a structure sooner or later, and they are right. But it is just such a danger, that when it begins to manifest, will encourage expedient political measures to prevent a snowballing collapse. The world does not shut down on a dime. Industries will continue to serve people's needs, but the preservation of the useless and malignant excesses of society to stave off evaporation of savings in mutual funds, massive unemployment and citizen panic and anger, will be the catalyst for an ultimately hyperinflationary response. This will likely occur in concert with our trading partners around the globe...or, at least, those who have been our allies in this ongoing game of monetary musical chairs for decades.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:40
Steve Puetz- Your comment to DA is exactly right! And those that got money, whatever money is, will be able to buy the place ON SALE!

Milhouse- the bottom will probably be between now and the end of the year
with mid-October a good posibility. The only way I know to do that is buy some all along and keep a lot of powder dry for the crash. GOOD LUCK!

Tally Ho

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:39
Geff: Governments can't permanently fix any kind of market. The USSR tried to hold the price of a loaf of bread down to an unreasonably low price -- and people stood in line for hours to by bread. Financial market are global. If people want gold, THEY WILL FIND A WAY. It doesn't matter if governments outlaw its ownership. It may keep some small investors out of gold, but large investors will move their capital to wherever they need to -- to get gold ownership.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:38
panda @>(@):
Could it be? A limit down move in the NDX? Down 1975. Wow, someone doesn't like the best of the Nasdaq!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:37
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SPEED, CMAX: On March 1, 1933, in his last act as President, Herbert Hoover signed an amended bankruptcy act into law. This law extended the time for payments and prevented creditors from reclaiming property of individuals, not corporations. When Roosevelt took office later he extended the law to include corporations. House prices plunged anyway. I think that creditors sold their claim rights for whatever they could get because they needed the cash for their own debts. The point here is that the government did act, and acted decicively, but could not stop deflation. I don't know for sure what would happen now. Millions would be affected, they constitute a powerful lobby and will not be removed from their homes. But that will not prevent deflation.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:37
Front TED:>(TED:):
Hi TED, Welcome back....Hope you didn't get any ideas of leaving our welfare state ! BTW, Just call me granddad! Yea, re: Cdn beer ... I guess that's why my friends in the states always want me to bring a case or two down so they can appreciate some good beer at least once in their lives eh! BTW, If the boys ever do have that party in Montreal, it'll be Canadian beers boys, so have some milk first before the toasts...We don't want anyone gettin arrested etc. Enjoy ...


Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:35
panda @>(@):
cherokee -- I think eldo went on vacation.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:34
cherokee @the-grain-brain-train--------->(@the-grain-brain-train---------):
i think i smell a limit move DOWN in sept. soybeans!
the crops are geting much needed rains that they did
not expect.

cap-n-kev, eldo, geff,----------are ya'll in

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:34
panda @!>(@!):
Earl -- Got a beer for me?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:33
Vieserre: My memory has faded a bit since the mid-1970s. If I remember correctly, both the IMF and the US Treasury were auctioning gold about every 6 weeks between 1976 and 1979. During 1976, the gold bottom occurred at $100 -- at the same time as one of the first US Treasury auctions. The gold sales, however, did not hurt gold's price, and in 1979, the Treasury finally gave up trying to hold down the price. I don't know the legal details about Congressional approval.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:33
Thousandneer @ politically correct thinking>(@ politically correct thinking):

Steve: I'm just a goldbug suffering from - Not Withdrawal Symtoms - but what they are putting over on the public symtoms; or excessive CNBC advertismentitis.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:32
NJ -- Thanks! That's right, up is down and down is up! :- ) I get it now!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:29
panda @telltale.signs?>(@telltale.signs?):
Donald -- One of the things that go on in the currency game is this cross rate business. In order swap in to one currency, you may have to go through one or more other currency exchanges. This is what upsets the best laid plans of the CBs. It is so impolite to screw up your currency and then have 'speculators' attack it, only to trash several other currencies in the process. :- ) )
Your currency neighbors might get upset with you... Nah, they'll just bail you out.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:25
NJ schilling>(schilling):
panda : take another look. Its not the Austrian Schilling that's getting hammered.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:24
Donald: Re your 19:25: The government has many ways to circumvent the bankers and place money in the hands of the masses. Food Stamps, housing vouchers, WIC cards, unemployment checks, tax credits, tax refunds and on and on. 500 billion dollars is going to be distributed this year via these methods and others. Picture this:
By Executive order in this time of National Emergency, every person who is out of work may apply for a USA debit card with $5,000 limit renewable every 6 months until I, Your President declare the crisis to be ended. Or how about this: Foreclosure on mortgages of homesteads is forbidden by executive order until the national emergency is declared ended.

This is easy, hell I could be president.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:24
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold down .40 ....Is Earl still with us

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:20

John Disney - I am confused as to why it is okay for you to attack me in
every possible fashion and then say, Don't bother to reply. If I come
into a bar, pull the bar stool out from under you, crack your head open
with a beer mug, and then kick you repeatedly in the ribs, is it
acceptible if I then say, Don't bother calling the manager over or trying to
reciprocate? What do you hope to accomplish by saying, Don't
bother to reply? Are you trying to say you're not interested in my reply?
Then why the hell address me? I haven't acknowledged a John Disney on this site
since you said something about a Money magazine headline being
a good contra-indicator three or four months ago. Is it something you
feel you need to get off your chest because gold opened lower in Asia
and I am somehow to blame? Did I somehow set you up for disappointment?

Everyone - I think you are confusing the fact that gold has not performed
well over the past year with the fact that I post on this site telling you gold
has not performed well over the past year. I don't care if I am the straw
man for gold's woes, and I don't care if you continue to villify me and lobby
for my eviction and continue TO BREAK YOUR OWN VOWS NOT TO
the only serves to stoke the fires of your passionate dislike for me.

Be very careful what you wish for. When I am beaten into submission
on this site, there is an off-chance ( small, I know, but you should try to
incorporate it into your realm of possibilities ) that gold will continue not
to perform well. Then who will you attack? Who will you have to blame
for your bad decisions and ill-timed entries into the market? Heavens,
not yourself, this is too much to consider. Why take responsibility when
there is a whole world of people out there to accuse of manipulation
or treachery or artificial support of the stock market or someone who
isn't using proper netiquette. ( I'll never forget the first time I posted on
this site and someone said I had my head too far up a cadaver's rectum. )
I just want it known that I didn't start this. I don't care if you can't accept it.
There is a higher authority out there called truth, and you can either open
your eyes to it as adults or continue to ignore it as children.

NOW DON'T BOTHER TO RESPOND. I can't stand your whining.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:19
6pak Central Banks @ Private Profit-Making>(Central Banks @ Private Profit-Making):
The Gold Reserve Hearings ( 1934 ) SENATOR ROBERT L. OWEN, long time critic
of the system, ( federal reserve system ) made the following statement:

The people did not know the Federal Reserve Banks were organized for
profit-making. They were intended to stablize the credit and currency
supply of the country. That end has not been accomplished. Indeed, there
has been the most *remarkable variation* in the purchasing power of money
since the System went into effect. The Federal Reserve men are chosen by
the big banks, through discreet little campaigns, and they naturally
follow the ideals which are portrayed to them as the soundest from a
financial point of view

Benjamin Anderson, economist for the Chase National Bank of New York said
( Gold Reserve Hearings 1934 )
At the moment, 1934, we have 900 million dollars excess reserves. In
1924, with increased reserves of 300 million, you got three or four
billion in bank expansion of credit very quickly. That extra money was
put out by the Federal Reserve Banks in 1924 through buying government
securities and was the cause of the rapid expansion of bank credit. The
banks continued to get excess reserves because more GOLD came in, and
because, whenever there was a slackening, the Federal Reserve people
would put out some more. They held back a bit in 1926. Things firmed up
a bit that year. And then in 1927 they put out less than 300 million
additional reserves, set the wild stock market going, and that led us
right into the smash of 1929

Before the House Banking and Currency Committee on June 24 1941,
Governor Eccles said:
Money is created out of the *right* to issue credit-money.

Governor Eccles said, at the Silver Hearings of 1939:
When you sell bonds on the open market, you extinguish reserves

Governor Eccles said ( September 30 1940 ) :
If there were no debts in our money system, there would be no money

At the House Banking and Currency Committee Hearings on June 06 1960
( Money facts, House Banking and Currency Committee, 1964, p.9 )

As Congressman Wright Patman puts it,
The dollar represents a one dollar debt to the Federal Reserve System.
The Federal Reserve Banks create money out of thin air to buy Government
bonds from the United States Treasury, lending money into circulation at
*INTEREST*, by *BOOKKEEPING* entries of checkbook credit to the United
States Treasury. The Treasury writes up an *INTEREST* bearing bond for
one billion dollars. The Federal Reserve gives the Treasury a one billion
dollar credit for the bond, and has created out of nothing a one billion
dollar debt which the American people are *OBLIGATED* to pay with

Congressman Wright Patman continues:
Where does the Federal Reserve system get the money with which to create
Bank Reserves ? Answer...It doesn't get the money, it creates it.
When the Federal Reserve writes a check, it is creating money.
The Federal Reserve is a total moneymaking machine. It can issue money or

All of these central banks have the power of issuing currency in their
respective countries. Thus, the people do not own their own money in
Europe, nor do they own it here ( USofA ) . It is privately printed for
private profit. The people have no sovereignty over their money, and it
has developed that they have no sovereignty over other major political
issues such as foreign policy.

September 30 1941 ( House Committee on Banking and Currency )
PATMAN: How did you get the money to buy those two billion dollars
worth of Government securities in 1933 ?
ECCLES: We created it
PATMAN: Out of what ?
ECCLES: Out of the right to issue credit money.
PATMAN: And there is nothing behind it,is there, except our Government's
credit ?

House Hearings of 1947, Mr. Kolburn asked Mr. Eccles:
What do you mean by monetization of the public debt ?
ECCLES: I mean the bank creating money by the purchase of Government securities. All money is created by debt--either private or public debt.
FLETCHER: Chairman Eccles, when do you think there is a possibility of
returning to a free and open market, instead of this pegged and
artificially controlled financial market we now have. ?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:18
Thousandeer: Your 20:18 sounds like a good idea. Sign me up for that $7 1/2 million plan. It sounds like taking candy from a baby!!!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:16
D.A.: Home loans and security loans are still expanding. That's why the monetary aggregates are still expanding. The surging bankruptcy rate is a signal that credit-quality is deteriorating rapidly. When the stock market collapses, the real deflation will start, and the real bankruptcy problem will begin. A huge number of loans will be paid off ONLY if the stock market continues to rise. A stock market crash will make hundreds of billions of loans unpayable. These expected bankruptcies will send the money aggregates into contraction and the economy into deflation.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:13
panda @curiouser and curiouser>(@curiouser and curiouser):
‘Australia seen becoming post-EMU safe haven ‘

And in the, ‘Tit for Tat’ column we have,
U.S. may hit back if EU reject Boeing merger-paper

Oooooooh! The planers are at work! Look out EU....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:13
Steve Puetz--I don't understand how gold will be worth 500% more in a time of deflation. Along the what-ifs senerio, what makes you think that the government will not either fix the price of gold or outlaw individual ownership again?

By the way, I agree that there is a growing body of evidence that deflation may be more likely in the next few years.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:10
Donald: Good post @ 19:25

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:08
Donald @Home>(@Home):
PANDA: Must be Panzer divisions on the roll again. Or, they are selling gold?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:06
REB na>(na):
WDL: You asked for comment about my favorite subject, TIPS. These things will not reduce the demand for gold, they will increase it. Why? Because of an implied promise of the government behind these things to create whatever amount of money is necessary to pay the principle at maturity. The treasury has no idea what it will take to pay these things on maturity, but not to worry - the fed will be ready to do whatever is necessary, as long as congress will pass the necessary increases in the debt limit.

When it is again widely perceived that protection against inflation is important, all hard assets will be of interest as well as TIPS. And TIPS have two significant disadvantages - you have to pay income tax on the principal adjustments as they occur ( even though you don't get the money until maturity ) , and the US government ( the borrower ) gets to define and measure the inflation adjustment.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:06
Cmax Deflation? I think not.>(Deflation? I think not.):
It seems to me that most are missing some key points that should be considered, for those that feel we are headed for deflation. The principal catalyst for the deflation event would be the inability of the general public to pay realestate loans. These properties would
obviously go to forclusure, but that does not necessarily mean that they will be auctioned off at 50% or less of their value.

Let’s consider the worst....stock market crashes.....millions of people lose their jobs......massive amounts of mortgages go unpaid......banks go belly up......boom!, we have a supposed deflation scenario as contended by it’s theorists......

but let’s not stop just there.......... the banks that are belly up will be taken over by the varios institutions designed for this event, like the FDIC. The realestate mortgages are then channelled back into the fannie maes/macs, and they in turn channel the liquidation of these debts back to the retail level ( I’m not exactly up on the names of the varios gov departments involved, but this would be the general idea ) .

*IF* they were to allow a huge volume of properties to be sold substantially under the owed amount, two things would happen:
1. This difference in price ultimately must be compensated by the printing of more paper ( inflationary ) . The morgagee sure won’t have any more to give.
2. Each and every property liquidated below present “market” values, will only add to possible deflation of the market and need for printing even more paper, thus creating the proverbial vicious circle.

It seems to me that the gov will be forced to NOT liquidate these properties too low, and will try to prop them up by papering and printing everything over, such as offering certain “incentives” and
“deferences” for buyers to purchase at present levels, thus avoiding our dreaded deflation. In Venezuela I witnessed a total monetary collapse, as 95% of all banks were taken over by the goverment, who were simultaneously printing UNGODLY amounts of money. In a year, the exchange shot from 90:1 to 500:1.....but none of the banks
properties were liquidated at cheap prices. The goverment just sat on them....creating in itself a massive inflation. And the real estate market STOPPED dead in the water for 2 years, but no deflation ( not even after the devalued exchange compared to the dollar ) .

As with the U.S. goverment, nothing short of a total monetary collapse will change this course of events. Whether they liquidate at prices
much lower than today’s market, or sit and wait, of give incentives and
deferences......ALL of these tactics spell hyper-inflation..

Something else that most deflationist’s like to banty around, is the example set in the 1930’s. Today’s world has NOTHING in common with the 1930’s, which were on the gold standard, which prevented a goverment to “inject liquidity” ( print cash fast ) into the economy, until that fatefull day when gold possesion was outlawed. Today, they can and
do print at will, without restraints and in a manner unprecedented, and they WILL again, because this time they don't have their meaningless golden chaparone to restrict them. This time, they will give out welfare benefits to quite down an incredibly large and hungry mob, so they can fill their bellies. There will simply be no other choice. They will again law the possesion of gold, out of logical expedience. But this time, I believe it will be too late, as the mainstream thought ( with events running their course up to this point ) will reject the confiscation of their gold, which will boomerang and create a black market that will send the price even higher. As they said in that dinosaur movie: Life will always find a way. Free markets are as natural as life itself.

No matter how you cut it, I seems to me that, in the event of a real market crash, hyper-inflation will take over this time.....not deflation. Those who want to use the deflation Tokyo properties as an example, must also bear in mind that the game is not over until it’s over, meaning that a “provincial” example is not comparable to an implosion of the world’s reserve currency.....the U.S. dollar. As long as there is a stable reserve currency to fall back on ( in today’s political mindset ) we can have some deflation......but without this stable reserve currency ( or when it implodes ) , HYPER-INFLATION will definitely take the helm.

An opinion from a connesuier of common sense; rock throwing by rational thinkers solicited.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:05
Commisar KGB, US operativ Ve speak softly and urinate straight>(Ve speak softly and urinate straight):

Ve haf interogated KGB agent implicated in urinal story and find that RJ lif skirt; kurious KGB agent look. Vat he zee knok him dizsy; ven he mis urinal, flor get vet. Simple kapilalistic shoe, no match for KGB hardhead. Ve find missen Karburator at the criminal zcene and zend to Albania, vhere 1942 lend lease dodge vit plantinum vait at truk stop.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:03
Vieserre Donald>(Donald):
DONALD: I do not know what will happen to gold re: inflation or deflation. I have not thought it through well-enough to side with my conflicting views. The way I am playing it is to see how it reacts to events as they unfold and take it from there. Fortunately, gold is poised by being oversold for both psychological and technical reasons to rise substanially in price if any event occurs favoring gold. And of course, I would be more comfortable with this current rally in gold if an economic or finanical reason is attributed to it.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:02
panda @?>(@?):
Is this an EBN faux pas? Why is the Austrian Schilling getting hammered?
Down 4%+?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 22:00
panda @?>(@?):
A thought provoking table at AVID traders

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:56
TED @canada>(@canada):
EBN Gold down .50

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:53
vronsky THE DINES LETTER (July 21, 1997)>(THE DINES LETTER (July 21, 1997)):
“GOLDBUGS FEEL LIKE HOLYFIELD'S EAR.” A blow-by-blow replay. It may be necessary to click your RELOAD. See Editorials section at:

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:52
TED @front>(@front):
Hi Front! Earl would be on the floor if it was Canadian beer....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:51
goodnews @now?>(@now?):
Today a local financial radio talk show featured a lengthly telephone
interview with Charles Allmon, editor of The Growth Stock Outlook newsletter. This newsletter has been around for 20 or 30 years and seems
to be well respected. Dr. Allmon voiced some definite opinions on the current stock market. To summarize his remarks, he feels the market is about to experience a fundamental change. It will either ( 1 ) go down HARD -- 40-50%, OR ( 2 ) go sideways for an extended period of years ... until earnings come more in sync with valuations.
When pressed for current buy selections, he specified undervalued GOLD stocks!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:51
The coming stock market crash and gold boom will quiet John Hepcat like no other Kitco posting has been able to do.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:50
Front To Earl : (:-)>(To Earl : (:-)):
Earl: ( :- ) )

No sympathy from this quarter my lad... Now if it was Canadian beer you'd really be skunked . 4 American beers still is considered wimpy in Canada!


Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:49
Nailz: Deflation we be the best possible environment for gold. Its purchasing power could be enhanced 50 to 100 times the present purchasing power of gold.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:46
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SPEED: That could happen: it would really hit the fan on the way back home.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:46
Vieserre Puetz>(Puetz):
S. PUETZ: In your commentary on the 1976 bottom, you mentioned that the US Treasury sold gold to depress price. I was under the impression that the Treasury could not sell gold without congressional approval. If so, was approval obtained?, If not, how was it sold.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:39
Donald @Home>(@Home):
STEVE PUETZ: Hows that again? Are you lacking a decimal point?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:37
TED @countystadium>(@countystadium):
Mike Sheller: Depressing but TRUE.....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:36
Donald @Home>(@Home):
VIESERRE: Even though I expect deflation first, then inflation, I am not uncomfortable holding gold and silver long. I do not margin my positions. As I have said before, what do I care if gold deflates to $100 as long as houses deflate to $5000. That is not necessarily a wise guy statement. I think it a real possibility.

REFER: I am holding Bema Gold. Last figures they published showed a $5.50 book value when gold was about $350. They have a boffo mine in Chile and are a likely takeover target.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:35
ALL: Based on current trading in S&P futures, the DJIA looks like it will open about 70 points lower tomorrow morning. Maybe the financial hurricane we all have been waiting for has finally started. Remember, hurricane season is from July to October.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:33
TED @countystadium>(@countystadium):
EBN Gold down .85 despite weak Dollar....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:32
GoldBug 23: I imagine most of the gold rally last week was from mild short-covering. It will probably take a rally to $335 to $340 to really get the shorts to run. Then the price will take off. The other contributing factor was the stock market sell-off that began on Thursday.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:30
Mike Sheller sorry 'bout that>(sorry 'bout that):
Hope I'm not depressing anyone. Kitco company excepted from my dark age comments, of course.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:29
TED @earl>(@earl):
Earl: at least ya gave me the smile when ya told me ta stuff it...unlike HipPussy....have another...fer me! ...D.A.: Irabu ain't lookin that great

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:28
Mike Sheller a philosophical dilemma>(a philosophical dilemma):
JACK: Your comment about treating the patient is unfortunately true, but I think that the coming catastrophe will be more the cure than anything else. This is a society, a world, bereft of philosophy or spiritual concern. The people seek not principles and eternal values, but only things and money. Things and money are wonderful servants, but terrible masters. Too many souls have been sold in the playing out of the disease. Our statesmen and leaders are rudderless and bankrupt, but that is no excuse. The people are failing themselves, and their children. Cultural emptyness always precedes civilizational night. The slow-motion apocalypse will be long, drawn out, and resemble nothing current society could relate to. We are on the edge of the next dark age.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:25
Roebear @slavelaboringforchocoholics>(@slavelaboringforchocoholics):
Earl, I find it absolutely disgusting that you write so well while drinking. Is there no hope for those of us with lesser gifts : ) )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:21
Goldbug23 @Ingot>(@Ingot):
EBN gold down .70 at 09:15 ET.
Steve Peutz: Why the strong upticks in gold last week, short covering?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:21
TED @da>(@da):
I think D.A. is watchin Irabu.....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:19
Chet Currier ( he's a syndicated columnist in many major newspapers )
had an article in this past Wednesday's Washington Times with a
In his article, he emphasizes that investors who want to hedge against inflation have gained some new alternatives to gold---in particular, the
inflation-protected securities ( TIPS ) that the U.S. Treasury began issuing at the beginning of this year. Any comments, views, or opinions?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:18
Mike Sheller loading up for Refer>(loading up for Refer):
REFER: Buy yourself some Echo Bay Mines ( ECO - ASE ) and some Sunshine Mining ( SSC- NYSE ) . SSC is primarily silver, but it is so cheap right now you could buy a few shares with what you find under the pillows in your couch. Buy it for just over half a buck now, and sell it for 1 3/4 on the next rally. Then wait for it to come back, and load up in winter of '98 for the big one. If you can't get $7 for it in 2003 I'll buy you lunch! Also Gold Standard Inc ( GSTD - Nasdaq Small Cap ) - which has a dynamite horoscope which will begin to explode at the turn of '98. I'm not shy.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:18
Donald: Far from antagonizing, you are helping fill in gaps and challenge thinking. What happens when a big chunk of that $233 billion comes home? The EMU will happen and the new Euro will be accepted by over 500 million people as a challenger to the dollar as reserve currency. The Russians are buying gold again and may very well choose metal over dollars also. The Japanese are committed to helping the Pac-rim nations and will sell/spend dollars or treasuries to protect their trading partners in that region. The Asian Co-prosperity Sphere is alive and well. All of these things taken together indicate ( to me anyway ) that dollars will come flooding back to the US right about the time our CB hits 10% growth in the money supply. Sounds like chaos is just over the horizon.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:18
Vieserre My 2 Cents on Inflation/Deflation>(My 2 Cents on Inflation/Deflation):
In the first two quarters of this year, GDP substantially exceeded the consensus of economists and inflation was paradoxically substantially below the consensus. This paradox has explained by wall street as a result of new economic paradigm including the concept that as long as goods being imported at low prices, the economy can grow as fast as it wants without inflation. Academia, Roach and other so-called Phillips curve followers contend that the excessive GDP will produce inflation but there is a lag before it occurs. Moreover, all goods produced in the US, i.e. refrigerators, are not affected by competitive imports, and that non-competitive services provide a substantial part of the GDP. As far as money supply, M2 Money Supply as an indicator is not used as it was in the early 1980s when the Fed seemingly cared more about the money supply than short-term interest rates, its main focus today. M2 has very little predictive power and the markets are aware of that, according to Gordon Richards, the economist for the National Association of Manufacturers. Studies have revealed that in the long term, inflation is a monetary consequence, but not necessarily on the short term.

In my own view, these counteracting forces will neither by themselves create significant inflationary nor deflationary problems. The key to inflation or deflation, both domestically and globally, is the dollar. Our expanding accounts deficit increases the risk of investor pull-out from financing both our trade accounts and governmental debt. And there has been no growth of savings in the US to counteract this, despite a substantial reduction in deficit - because everyone wants to play the market. All this means is that as a nation we are extraordinarily vulnerable to foreign withdrawal of investment funds, not unlike Thailand. And a collapsing stock market is not conducive to retaining such investors.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:16
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold down .55

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:13
Jack That would be really treating the patient, rather than the just symptom>(That would be really treating the patient, rather than the just symptom):

Earl: Getting rid of the credit card -or cutting them by 67% -is a great idea. It would put the Money Mongers in their place and put a semblance of control back in the hands of the people.
Sure we may not be able to buy as much, but I suspect a better quality in both product and life will emerge.
We have a large low wage society who over extend their credit cards buying products from other lands to an eventual detriment of the whole land.
Who profits, not the country - JUST THE BANKERS AND THE MANUFACTURES THAT THEY FINANCE - everwhere but not here.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:11
Mike Sheller look, up in the sky, it's a bird...>(look, up in the sky, it's a bird...):
POORBOYS: What are the astro logicals you're going by for gold weakness? EARL: I had four bears on an empty stomach. Gold bears.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:10
Refer The time is at hand>(The time is at hand):
This is only my second posting @ this site ( my first being a test ) , although Ive have been monitoring it for sometime. Over this time I've been able to see predictions play out or not play out, which ever the case maybe. I've loading up on call options- cost average buying, and feel it is time to load up on some gold stock. I'm would appreciate some opions on which ones will see the best returns. It has been stated that South African do the worst during the down times if that is true they should be the poised for highest returns at this point. Suggestions are appreciated.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:07
WDL @ latest news>(@ latest news):
Bloomberg News has gold down 75 cents...both Australian and
New Zealand markets down considerably. Aussie market down one
percent...Broken Hill ( mining interest ) on All Ordinaries one of leading decliners.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 21:00
Donald @Home>(@Home):
BOB, D.A.: While I concede that the M's are increasing I do not concede that those increases are present in the domestic U.S. economy. Since 1989 and the collapse of Communisim larger and larger amounts of U.S. cash paper dollars are circulating in former communist countries. On December 31, 1994, the Fed estimated the amount to be $233 Billion. The number is certainly higher now but no one, including the Fed, knows the exact amount. If that money is deducted from the M's we could actually be having decreases in the M's here in the states even though the published numbers properly and actually show increases.

This is a difficult business to resolve. I hope I am not making anyone upset by my position on this issue. The truth is no one knows for sure what the outcome will be. I have been tracking this stuff for years and have reached conclusions that are difficult for me to shake. I am personally embarassed by the fact that my expected outcome did not happen earlier.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:58
George Cole new world order>(new world order):
An interesting perspective on the new world order from an unnamed source.

I want to address the question of what may appear to be
a change in the World Bank's perspectives on the role of government by
some observations of my own, and then by citation of reflections by David
Korten following a lunch of UN officials, including President of the UN
General Assembly Razali Ismail, with government officials and members of
the WBCSD, a council of transnational corporations.

My observations:
Current anti-government public sentiment and tax resistance may begin
to threaten the flow of corporate welfare which is supported by
governmental budgets. Governmental subsidies to business and the costs
of corporate activities which are not included in business expenses,
but are covered by the public ( externalities ) , require that governments
continue to have financial resources available for these purposes.
Tax reduction might go too far, and cut into corporate welfare!

Corporate welfare, including very lucrative government contracts, far
exceeds governmental support of the social safety net. Profitable
contracts and other supports and benefits for business might be at
risk if government tax revenues shrink significantly! Political control
over populations requires well funded military and police. Economic
stability for the property and assets of a global dominant elite, which
includes the financial leaders and fiscal interests represented by the
World Bank as an institution, requires that governments continue to
subsidize corporations, and to safeguard the rights and assets of those
corporations. Government is seen as an essential, but junior partner, of
corporate rule in the new world order. Make no mistake about it - this is
a planned society that is envisioned by the elite. The World Bank and other
business organizations have been planning this program for years, and
now, at this point in history, have achieved hegemony. The planned, global
society they are unveiling clearly operates in behalf of the interests of a
small elite, and is totally undemocratic.

Citing David Korten: from The United Nations and the Corporate Agenda
( see )

The underlying commitment to the use of public resources to advance
unrestrained global corporate expansion brought to mind the central
message of a book that first appeared in 1980 written by Bertram Gross
beyond the familiar racism, hatred and brutal authoritarian rule
associated with the practice of fascism to describe the institutional
structure of fascist regimes. Herein he revealed a nasty little secret.
The defining structure of fascist regimes is a corporate dominated
alliance between big business and big government to support the expansion
of corporate empires.

Those of us who have been studying these issues have long known of the
strong alignment of the World Trade Organization ( WTO ) , the World Bank,
and the IMF to the corporate agenda.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:52
Savage arrowhead?>(arrowhead?):
MIKE: ( your 16:03 ) I've done that; felt like you. That's a good one!! ...ANYONE: can any tell me which trading house supposedly offered $7 round turns on 100 lots ( options ) or greater

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:51
Jack ( 20:38 ) : I think what Donald is saying is that at some point the credit card will be 'yanked' and the holder no longer has the option of buying groceries with a card in order to save the mortgage.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:45
John @hep: Stuff it. ( :- (

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:44
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Gold seemed to have found some support down 90c from NY close. Stocks are starting to recover slightly. It was a large jump in price for gold between NY close and with DOWs -130, probally the market is just reorganising itself. True picture probally after 12:00pm AEST. We have been tipped for another rate cut so dollar may do lower in week.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:42

The improvement in Japan's GDP still belies the fact that, to my knowledge, they have yet to address the debt problems overhanging the bubble from the '80s. Real estate and etc. At this late date they continue to paper over the problem. With the conivance of the rest of the world. They have that advantage, as does Brazil, because they are not a lynch pin to the system.

It seems to me that given our position as 'court of last resort' vis a vis monetary and debt matters, it is a far different ( spelling is becoming more difficult ) situation, should we visit the Japanese experience. Certainly we can fire up the money machine but, IMO, the world is less willing to cut us slack in the process. Indeed, why should they ..... To move the last exportable Toyota into the US?

I would argue that our ( US ) position makes us both unique and a source of vulnerability to the entire world and that our actions in this end game strategy cannot be measured in traditional terms. The macro stuff is less useful because the keystone to the system is in danger of coming apart.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:39
Bob @....deflation >(@....deflation ):
Deflation happens when aggregate demand declines and lower prices continue to cycle through the economy. Deflation is often associated with depressions but a depression is not a necessary condition. I don't think we will see deflationary economies when governments have the means to print money and reflate the economies.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:38
Jack Major Credit Cards Covered >(Major Credit Cards Covered ):

If I purchase something with a major credit card I am sure that the merchant is paid relatively fast. Both the major card issuers as well as the merchant card issuers are covered by high rates of interest on their plastic, which probably? covers defaults.
On the other hand, if the default rate goes so high that the high rates do not cover the issuers; the fed may be forced to increase the M's, just like they did over the last 4 weeks. Hmmm?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:34
Donald @Home>(@Home):
D.A.: That is a valid point. There are still increases in the M's. But it is the RATE OF INCREASE that is not being sustained. Just as the junkie needs a larger dose to achieve the previous high. The credit system needs an increasingly greater rate of growth to meet the next quarter reporting bogey. Friday we had a perfect example. Microsoft exceeded the street number by 1 cent. Because it failed to meet the whisper number it tanked 9 bucks. Social Security provides a reverse example. We need more working people to pay those who are eligible to receive benefits. A dip in the birth rate, the same dip that rippled through the school systems of America, will tank Social Security. There are certainly more Americans than in 1937 when SS started. It is the rate of growth that has declined and will cause the problem. Ponzi ran out of customers once again.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:33
MoreGold @Currencies>(@Currencies):
Scott: Must be related to the ongoing currency problems in Asia/Pacific?
I don't think we have seen the worst of it yet, but the IMF will step in in a big way if required. Philippines already been to the IMF piggy bank.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:27
Earl Earl:

Off off to to watch watch some some baseball. Be Be back back later later.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:19
D.A. pushing.strings>(pushing.strings):

Earl, if I had four beers on an empty or full stomach, it is inconceivable that I could think, let alone type. I am very impressed.

Since Japan had the strongest GDP growth ( 3.6% ) of all G7 nations last year and is well on their way to another good year it would appear that their massive monetary stimulus is finding its way to the bottom line.

Deflation occurs when debtors can not repay their debts, default and have their assets liquidated. This mass liquidation of assets causes price declines and further defaults as asset values are trimmed. While it is true that there is a massive amount of debt out there that can not be repayed, there will be no deflation because the major debtors also control the terms of the repayment. If you were in debt in a big way but also had a money printing machine in the basement, do you think you would ever default?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:18
Thosandneer I have $1000 >(I have $1000 ):

I will invest my $1000 in a mutual fund. I will receive an compounded annaul return of 25% over the next 40 years.
When I retire, I will have about $7 1/2 million.
In the mean time I will raise hell and be a real hep-cat and give you goldbugs hell. SO THERE, I SAID IT.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:18
Scott @theBank in Australia>(@theBank in Australia):
Morning Boys: Market is dropping like a lead balloon here today on open. Could be interesting today, what do you think? Gold seems to be following the trend also.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:15
Donald @Home>(@Home):
TED: Please let Earl get another beer, I finally got someone to lean a little bit my way. Dont't screw it up now!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:13
Poorboys ( 19:33 ) : Bite yer tongue. ( :- ) )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:10
D.A. exactly>(exactly):

I agree, the lost money will show up as a decline in the monetary aggregates. Yet these very same aggregates are increasing at rapid rates. While I do not disagree that the bankruptcy rate is increasing, it must not be outdistancing the other money creating activities in the society. BTW, in the latest quarter I believe that the writedowns for bad credit decreased at the major money center banks.

As for this being a worldwide phenomena, we presently have the strongest currency. Inflation in the rest of the world is doing quite nicely. What would you call the price increases that are going to be felt by all the folks inhabiting those Southeast Asian countries that are having thier currencies hammered?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:08
Ted: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Stuff it. .... ( :- ) )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:07
Panda/D.A. and I think Aurophile:

Inflation is definitely the direction of least resistance ... BUT Donald has very interesting point. Dollars created are not the same as dollars made available to alleviate the suffering of poor debtors and stabilize a fractured system. Is not Japan a recent case in point? They have been pushing on a string in their efforts to mitigate their situation with easy money.

In the end, the problems confronting debtors are not solved with the assumption of additional debt. Pumping money only delays the inevitable clearing action of the market. And the concommitent pain.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 20:00
TED @earl>(@earl):
Earl: fer christ sakes eat something while you drink!...BBL....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:53
Donald @Home>(@Home):
D.A. Cash dollars stay on the scene. They remain a permanent part of the monetary base. Credit dollars disappear on the way down just as quickly as they appeared on the way up. I cite as evidence the surge in personal bankruptcies. If you go bankrupt and stiff Sears for $1,000 that money just gets deleted out of the computer. That is all it ever was in the first place. It never was printed by the Fed. It shows up in M2 and M3 as a $1,000 decrease.

I think I am guilty of explaining this as purely an American phenomenen. It is worldwide. It is absolutely outside the control of the Fed. In 1928 conservative bankers began to withhold credit from people who still wanted to play high finance get rich quick games. In 1997 conservative bankers are doing exactly the same thing. The absolute proof that they are doing it is the current bankruptcy rate. The result will be a stock market crash and the eventual disruption of the entire financial system.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:51
Poorboys Onthe@spot>(Onthe@spot):
Panda-Yes on my own charts and Astrological findings and a touch of common sense.I will ad to this the reality of the new age mechanics.Paper= Paper .Gold is and will be worthless in the new WORLD ORDER.I would guess 1999.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:50
panda @>(@):
D.A. -- SPU7 was down 450 about twenty minutes ago. And some say that the Nasdaq is the wild wild west! :- ) )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:46

Just cracked the 4th beer on an empty stomach, so I apologize in advance for not following the deflation/inflation thread and your last comments. Have you decamped the deflation scene? ..... If true it seems to me that this has come full circle and we are now where I always figured it would be. That is; at the first whiff of deflation the fed would pull out all stops and print money to head off deflation. It is, after all, the only immediate remaining lever it has at its disposal.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:45
panda @>(@):
Pilot program at the CME for those interested in receiving free realtime quotes. Go to
You will need latest version of Microsoft Explorer though. Details at the site.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:43

In addition to the no confidence vote in the SPU's it looks like the greenback is also under a bit of pressure. This will be good for stuff.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:43
auroelf Bart's Solid Gold Travel Service>(Bart's Solid Gold Travel Service):
Aurophile: Thanks, from your half-namesake.

Earl: Yes, Orcas is one of the US San Juan Islands. Greenspan was installed in 1987. I seem to recall that one of a hundred or so reasons given after the fact for the Crash of '87 was that the new Fed chairman Greenspan had to show the markets he was tough by raising rates, as Wall Street didn't think he could handle the job as well as Paul Volker had.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:36
panda @>(@):
Poorboys -- Are you basing your conclusion on the current trend, or are there other indicators/fundamentals that you are using?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:36
D.A. macro.things>(macro.things):

If the money supply is expanding faster than nomincal GDP how is it possible to have deflation unless everyone is taking their money and putting it under the mattress. Since the national savings rate is also declining I submit that the mattress theory doesn't cut it.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:33
panda @>(@):
Well that was quick! Early vote of no confidence on the Globex.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:33
Poorboys More@stars>(More@stars):
Vronsky-I love you as a persona but please face reality Gold has only one place to go this year and that is DOWN DOWN DOWN after a little tiny rally.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:25
Donald @Home>(@Home):
AUROPHILE: I do not agree. I think you are confusing cash dollars with credit dollars. Credit expansion ended in 1928 when lenders began to be concerned about the ability of debtors to pay. Today an identical situation can be found with recent problems at Citicorp, Advanta, Mercury Finance, Jayhawk Finance and others as concerns are raised about the ability of borrowers to pay. Unquestionably the Fed has the authority and the ability to print cash dollars. They do not have a way to get those dollars into the hands of the debtors who are hungry for them. That is the job of your local banker. Your local banker is becoming increasingly reluctant to extend those dollars even at 20% rates. If he, or she, loses the bank to the FDIC there goes the country club membership, the college education for the kids, all the prestige associated with being a banker. They saw what happened after the S&L fiasco and those bankers who are still in business have already made the move to restrict credit to the needy.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:24
panda @>(@):
FWIW -- Japan closed tonight for holiday.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:19
Poorboys FreeDrink@me>(FreeDrink@me):
Hey Ted Advise from the stars-Looks like the time to sell that ABX & Placer.Ugg. The game is about to be done.Remember it's all a game the winner is long term,but not this term.Happy Trails P.S.Sell into strength.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:18
WW @NE>(@NE):
Is this the same J.Granville aka bear of the low in 1987 Granville. Gotta luv im. off to nyc in the am be at nymex for lunch,

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:16
Miro >( ):
Gentleman, I said that I won’t read or reply to any more posts related
to John Hepcat but the flow won’t stop. If I have anything to say about
it - I am in no-censorship camp but I would strongly recommend to
ignore any annoying posts from him or similarly annoying counterattacks
from others. I actively participate in many professional ( yeah, still
making my living through regular job ) or forums related to outdoors.
There is always some individual who becomes very disruptive, annoying,
and offensive to other participants. Unfortunately some people
leave when the disruption factor outweighs the benefits.

John is an example of this behavior. Not because of his ideas but
because of his presentation ( e.g., disrespectful, belittlement’s,
personal insults. ) Unfortunately, this invokes ( in many cases ) the
similar reaction from other participants. There are some good
netiquette sites on Internet and John violates many of listed netiquette
rules ( e.g., don’t post things which offend other forum participants, do
not make personal attacks, do not flame, ... )

If the case when forum is not moderated, the best approach is to ignore
such posts and individuals. They will eventually change their tone or,
when they can not draw any more attention, leave the forum. This is my
last waste of forum space on this issue and if anybody wants to respond,
or flame me, take it off line - this time I included my real address.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:15
panda @>(@):
D.A. -- I'm an inflationist at heart. I believe we've had the deflation during the eighties. Now comes the inflation! I agree with you whole heartedly on the numbers game. The idea here, I think, is to scare some investors about deflationary trends. Convince them that we need SOME inflation to save their collective a**es. Then when the numbers become so BOGUS that no one is fooled, investors won't mind 'a little' inflation. By then, it will be way too late! The currency turmoil is indicative of a trade war by, 'other means'. The inflation numbers have been held low because of CHEAP imports due to a rising Dollar. This is going to change. It will be a mess, up, down, and every direction in between. The one thing that should come out of this is.... bright, shiny, and yellow, is that gold is the standard.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:10
Vieserre Pow wow>(Pow wow):
Cherokee: Oh eye of the eagle, wisdom of the owl, hunter of truth, your raven stopped at my teepee, I heard the tom-toms, I saw the smoke - they told me you are troubled and I come in spirit to Pow-wow in your smoke-mobile ... with peace pipe in hand.

Who is this white devil named Granville who troubles you so, have you not wisely told us in many posts that things are not always what they seem to be. If he is truly the one that moved markets with his pronouncements and was worshipped as the god of analysts, the former bear of bears, the one who grandly trumpeted an imminent stock market crash based on everything he ever learned only to quickly thereafter become miraculously transformed into a born-again bull when it did not happen - then his untimely appearance here may be merely for some sought-after recognition as a former false god that he once again longs to be and is so elusive to mere mortals as Elane G and others have found out before and after him.

Analysts thrive for the reasons you taught us. A person often believes that another knows more than what he actually does know; and many are looking for that analyst god to show them the market path for earthly riches. But ironically, it is only when one gains sufficient knowledge of the market to find the path on his own that he can determine the wisdom of following a path led by another.

So do not be troubled Kimasabe, if it is truly Granville, his words have only a message to those who wish to believe it, and as that great white spirit would put it, this forum is merely a stage where we are all playing a part, including the fools among us.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:09
aurophile error@checking>(error@checking):
treemenduois= tremendous in aurospeak...: )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 19:08
Donald: D.A. has it right. Deflation ( in prices ) started in 1920 after the treemendoius war increases, gained momentum in 1925 ( in agriculture and land ) , and became obvious to one and all ( even in Wall Street ) in 1930. Our fear of deflation now is akin to the fear of it in 1946. But it's done and over with as it was then.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 18:58
Donald @Home>(@Home):
D.A.: In mid year 1930 absolutely no one expected deflation. All the government officials and business people were predicting good times immediately ahead, and that was 9 months AFTER the stock market crash of 1929. There was absolutely no warning but deflation hit like a thunderbolt. After 1929 a lot of very smart people bought on the dip and were wiped out after April, 1930, when the real damage was done. By 1931 there was 25% unemployment, another 25% were luckily only part-timed. The deflation was caused by the inability of millions to pay their debts. I don't expect that history will repeat exactly, actually it could be much worse because now EVERYONE is counting on inflation to pay off their bills with inflated dollars. They have subconciously included it into their financial planning. It isn't going to work that way. After the deflation, when its too late, that is the most likely time to expect the increase in the money supply and the seed of inflation for the next generation.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 18:43
KGB: LOL! Either you're taking lessons from Bernatz or Bernatz is taking on multiple personalities. In either case, RJ has to scratch some gravel to catch up.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 18:40
vronsky Gold & Silver Future Assayed by Visionary Mining Executive>(Gold & Silver Future Assayed by Visionary Mining Executive):
The Astrological Investor interviews unusual energy & mining industry entrepreneur. It's north to Alaska, and who knows where else, with businessman/astrologer Chad C. Meek. SEE Astrological Investor:

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 18:39
D.A. hook.line.and.sinker>(hook.line.and.sinker):

Can you name just one single item, other than silicon based products, and a few raw commodities, whose price measured in global currency terms, is down over the last five years.

How does one have a deflation where money supply is growing far faster than nominal growth? Someone reported here recently that broad money supply is growing at an annual rate of 9.2%. In Britain the same measure is now over 11.2%. I strongly urge you to do some reading at the Bureau of Labor Statistics Web page ( whore URL escapes me at the moment ) . The numbers which are published purporting to measure inflation are complete and total Bull*&*%. Every series which is measured, has a built in deflator which attempts to adjust prices downward due to 'quality' improvements, regardless whether or not they exist. For example, housing prices are adjusted downwards because it is assumed that houses are getting bigger and are built better. Since we are currently looking around at houses I can assure you that at least here in southern Connecticut this is complete nonsense. Houses built in the last 20 years are cheap woodframe construction with sheetrock walls, hollowcore doors, where you could hear a cat piss from four rooms away. The house we are currently bidding on was built around the turn of the century, is made largely of stone, has 6 inch thick plaster walls, red oak for all the door and window framing, hardwood floors, high ceilings and 100 year old trees. If we tried to build this house today it would cost perhaps twice its current market price, if you could find anyone who could actually do the work.

Are we going to get a deflation from a collapse in the financial markets? It is conceivable. Will we get one from 'tight' monetary and fiscal policy? No way. When reading all the 'deflationary' commentary just remember that the number one job of the governments' is to manage their respective piles of debt. The only way to do this is to attract fools to lend money to their cause. The way to do this is to print bogus stastistics and reel in the fish. Don't get hooked.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 18:36
KGB Amerika Field Zell #102 Ve speak softly >(Ve speak softly ):

Ve the KGB's of Amerika Field Operationzs read the RJ life short story ov 02:29 - Not Moscow Time.
Ve kom konklusion RJ is Kapilalist Gorilla who vant starring role in kapitalist film drama ov Platinum Broker dat lose his money ven KGB take the Platinum bak to homeland.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 18:34
Donald/Nailz @deflation: Reminded me of a lyric from an old tune of little note beyond the present: After you've eaten steak for awhile; beans - beans they taste fine. .... How's Campbells doing ( :- )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 18:31
MIKE: I noticed that very painful limp right after the knee surgery.
Coulda' been some kinda cosmetic on that e-mail address, too.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 18:30
Auroelf: there is an article entitled Ferry Tales in the July issue of Sunset Magazine ( US ) : An Insider's Guide to smooth summer sailings in and around Puget Sound and Canada's Strait of Georgia. Orcas Island is featured, but ferry schedules and telephone numbers are provided for the entire crossborder area from Seattle to extreme southern Alaska.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 18:26
BB Fisher: In response to your second DOW chart I wanted to post a long term bond chart which coincides nicely with the DOW rise beginning in 1985. Alas, the software ( DOS based ) experienced a glitch on boot up and will not respond beyond opening banner. ........ Suffice to say, 1985 was the beginning of the paper revolution and the notion that instruments are truly more valuable than stuff. ..... BTW, what year was Alan Greenspan installed as fed chairman?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 18:24
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NAILZ: Deflation scares me too, even though I prepared for it awhile ago. There are things that are beyond your personal control. Such as, how well did your employer invest your pension? Even if you are not a debtor, only a creditor, you need to be worried. Can those who owe you pay? The best money manager in the business will be hurt by deflation.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 18:17
Auroelf: Can't help you with Orcas Island. Never been there. ...... Out of curiousity; isn't it one of the San Juan Islands and in the US? ..... Whether it is or not, that entire area is lovely. A place to gorge yourself on seafood --- as long as you're not allergic to shellfish ( iodine ) .

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 18:16
Mike Sheller Alas, fine Auric, we knew him (Joe)>(Alas, fine Auric, we knew him (Joe)):
AURIC: Most charitable of you. Of us? Who knows. Very funny.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 18:07
Auric @home>(@home):

Cherokee: Perhaps we can invite Mr. Granville to the Kitco Bash and pay for all his expenses. We could then claim that as a charitable deduction!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 17:57
Pizza Man Thanks Panda>(Thanks Panda):
Panda: Thanks for taking the time to answer my post. Hopefully my Long
Positions in GOLD keep going the right direction, and with any luck
I can catch some short action on the S&P. I am no chartist but I feel
we are at a similar position of 4/22/93 for gold.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 17:42
nomercy global markets>(global markets):
interest read from Martha Eden, VP,Hanseatic Corporation ,forecasting a cataclysmic event of global proportions is certainly due to take its toll no matter how benign the economic environment is.
in the next year or two

Hanseatic Corporation
Global Market Strategist Advisory Service
18 July 1997

Investor's Business Daily published a front-page article this week entitled Is Deflation the
Real Threat? Fed May Be 'Behind the Curve' on Falling Prices--marking the first prominent
mainstream financial press recognition of this ever more possible scenario. There are still Fed
members and analysts and politicians of various stripes who do not believe inflation is
quiescent, however as each new number reinforces the case, the reality of falling prices and the
need for lower interest rates will sink in. Disinflation is quickly turning into deflation as central
banks and governments all toe the line with relatively tight monetary and fiscal policies. This is
an incredibly benign atmosphere for bonds and stocks, and one that will defy description and
prediction by use of outmoded Keynesian style yardsticks, traditional P/E and earnings quality
measures, or peak capacity measures. Productivity will likely show moves no one thought
was possible. As the dollar grows stronger on world forex markets, and grows more valuable
at home by way of deflation, each dollar earned by each American company operating
anywhere in the world represents dearer value than has existed for many, many decades.
Traditional arbitrary P/E limitations grow increasingly irrelevant in such an atmosphere.

This is not to say that all is perfectly well worldwide with financial markets. The currency
devaluations sparked by the recently floated Thai baht and spreading quickly to some of the
world's highest growth Asian economies will take a toll on investor confidence in that part of
the world, and could well spill over into Latin American markets. Confidence in any of these
markets could dissipate very quickly and turn a mere correction into a devastating decline
which could eventually envelop all global markets much as the 1987 Dow crash did. We do
not see such an event undermining markets yet but some time in the next year or two, a
cataclysmic event of global proportions is certainly due to take its toll no matter how benign the
economic environment is.

The dollar has looked hard at 1.80 DM but seems willing to back off. There is not a great deal
of fundamental justification for the dollar to go much higher, but it now appears equally unlikely
to give up alot of ground in the very near term. Longer term we could see a sharp correction,
but time and sentiment are not quite right for that yet.

Martha Eden

Hanseatic Corporation 5600 Wyoming NE Ste 220

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 17:30
auroelf Orcas Island, too>(Orcas Island, too):
Richard Bourke, Earl: Thanks for your recommendations, also.
Orcas Island is also on our itinerary. Any suggestions there?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 17:25
lolly lolly@alphanet >(lolly@alphanet ):
Organ at 15:55 wanted an answer as to what would happen if the
Comex can not or will not? deliver the gold or any other metal
metal contracted for.
Well you can sue, the same as under any contract dispute and hope
the Court finds in your favour. In which case you claim damages.
You will get paid in PAPER DOLLARS,- still no GOLD Bullion.
In other words, non delivery of physical gold or metal as you
desired or hoped for under a contract has no bearing at the
price of the metal. The value of the damages, in case of default are
always listed in legal tender, which in the U.S.A. is Dollars.

yare n

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 17:19
MoreGold @Some Important facts about Gold Production and mine profitability>(@Some Important facts about Gold Production and mine profitability):
Since the price of Gold has sunk below the cash cost of producing Gold for maybee 60% of the worlds Gold mines, arguably Gold may have a difficult time to go ( and stay ) much lower. Some of the top Gold producers have protected themselves with large hedge positions and have low cash costs of producing Gold.
IF we use the BREAK-EVEN* cost and not the cash cost, it paints a completely different picture.
*BREAK-EVEN includes: cash, depreciation, depletion, amortization, general expenses, administration, exploration, interest and all other costs.
When this is used, the picture is a lot less rosier for mining companies.
Barrick: Hedged at 420. / Cash cost 189. / but Break-even 326.
Newmont: Hedged at 418. / Cash cost 210. / but Break-even 345.
Placer Dome: Hedged at 448. / Cash cost 225. / but Break-even 416.

Other Miners are actually losing money at BREAK-EVEN -

Amax Gold: Hedged at 370. / Cash cost 240. / but Break-even 432.
Royal Oak: Hedged at 395. / Cash cost 325. / but Break-even 410.

To make matters worse for these companies, the high hedge positions cannot be extended if Gold stays at these low levels, making the balance sheet even worse in the near future.

My point is the same as i've mentioned before, if the current price of Gold ( or lower ) is maintained, the CB's will have to supply the market in a big way, since mine production will plummet.
Eventually of course the CB vaults will be empty, and the natural laws of supply and demand will take over big time.

( Data Source was GLOBE & MAIL ) .

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 17:19
Jack IMF>(IMF):

When a country accepts help from the IMF, they also pay the piper. They become junior members of the NWO and must follow its directives - or else.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 17:07
nailz AFTERNOON GANG...........>(AFTERNOON GANG...........):
All this deflationary talk scares the sh#t out of me.....Anybody else

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 17:00
panda @>(@):
Pizza Man -- $$$$ Real time quotes will cost you. It depends on who you use as a data provider. BMI and DBC are really the same outfit. I understand that BMI is supposed to be cheaper than DBC. You'll have to check that out for the types of data that you're looking for.

As an example, if you want stock quotes, DBC charges based on the exchange involved. So, if you want AMEX, NADAQ, NYSE listings you will pay an exchange fee for each of the above plus the data providers fee. Options data comes from OPRA, Options Reporting Authority. A separate fee here. Futures gets interesting. There are different exchanges and the exchange fees are higher than for stock data. Again, you'll have to inquire at each data provider as to their fee schedual and price structure. If you're only interested in the spoo's ( SPX ) , then you can get by with the $PREM quote from DBC. They include this with the indexes, which are freebies. The $PREM is the current SPX futures quote over the SPX cash quote. Just add the two together and you should be pretty close to the futures price. If you need better than that, you'll have to subscribe to a futures quote service. Hope I helped, and didn't confuse you. BTW, a class action suit was filled against DBC for not providing Real Time Data. It seems they drop ticks ( YES THEY DO! ) due to their distribution system not being able to handle the increased trading going on! They are supposed to have this remedied by early 1998. Until then, was that the right quote?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 16:46
BB Fisher and Mike Sheller: One aspect of charting that is not discussed enough is the differences that show up depending on whether arithmetic scale or logarthmic is used. For a long term chart such as the one you have shown us, BB, I submit that a logarthmic scale would be more appropriate. The change in trend channels might still be there, but would not be so dramatic.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 16:44
ALL: Read Pomboy's Letter-to-the-Editor in Barron's. Also, on gold's bullish side -- the latest Committment-of-Traders report shows a huge short-position by speculators. It appears that the shorts began to run for cover late last week. If gold rallies a little further, most of these technical traders will get stopped out, then watch gold explode to the upside!!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 16:42
panda @>(@):
bb fisher -- I can give you a good reason for the rise in the markets, or at least, why they should have risen. The simple answer was the 'fall of Communism'. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that this rise is not of epochal proportions, as well as over done. It would make sense that markets are rising to adjust for so many NEW customers, greater demand for products, etc. The problem is, their standard of living and disparate monetary systems. What is a Ruble really worth? The same goes for all the other East Block countries. Their currencies were worth whatever the heads of state and Moscow, said that they were worth. After all, didn't the U.S.S.R. say the exchange rate for the Ruble was two Rubles to the Dollar, pre-collapse? As for the rise in the equities, well..... I do have a hard hat around here somewhere!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 16:42
nomercy aurophile>(aurophile):
re Steve Perth posting of emergency meeting
I had posted this earlier, re : US Treasury on High Alert,
the following is a quote from that article, ( South China morning post )
Currency volatility is expected to be foremost on the agenda when central bankers from 11 Asian countries gather for a one-day closed door meeting in Shanghai next Friday.

The second annual meeting of East Asia and Pacific Central Banks has raised hopes of stronger co-operation between members to stem further currency chaos.
Full article may be found

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 16:39
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Humus,pita bread,and carrots for dinner....NO martini's...Cherokee: I echo what Earl said....if that IS Joe baby I'd be much more concerned if he went bullish on gold...Many years ago A friend took on Joe baby as his guru and he lost his have many! but buyer beware and take responsibility for yourself...what a couple Joe baby+Elaine Garzerelli would make....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 16:31
panda @>(@):
Organ -- You'll have to scroll back a few weeks to see the stories on PA/PL. A better idea may be to search the archives of and look for palladium or platinum stories. Who was extending loans, or whatever they call them, to whom should be in those articles

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 16:28
cherokee @yes------------>(@yes------------):
mike sheller--

excellent analogy of the arrow in the sky vs. pie in the sky!

hi joe! i love ya man, keep on keepin on!!

chaos has lowered the boom on the gold shorts, now it's time for flux
to add luster to the equation. better hang-on, this is the week
that the short sellers of gold realize things are different, and
they are on the wrong side of the fence.

the pendulum has made its' first cut, and the sleepwalkers cannot
see they are missing an appendage. as the final cut is made, only then
will the somnambulists awaken as they begin the longest sleep of all.
not to worry, the gov't can, and is ready, to take the biggest bite of all!! the freedom bite.

cherokee!; )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 16:21
Ron Getting AP Breaking News>(Getting AP Breaking News):
Here's another way to access breaking news on the AP newswire. No fancy interface or anything -- just the facts ma'am.

You have to hit the RELOAD button every once in a while to see the latest story.

If you are speculating in oil and gas, be sure to read the story about breakthroughs in turning natural gas in Prudhoe Bay into liquid crude. It *probably* won't affect your current positions, but watch out in the future. For some reason, as often happens with the wire, the story is broken into two parts, the second part immediately below the first.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 16:19
Pizza Man>(
Can anyone tell me where I can get real time quotes for ( September )
S&P future contracts. I have been using DBC to watch the index
but that only kicks in as of 9:30AM. Also any suggestions for using a
subscription type service using FM signal etc. Thank You in advance for
any feedback.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 16:03
Mike Sheller @BB, the King!>(@BB, the King!):
BB FISHER: Your chart of the stock market has made me dizzy. Let me sit down for a moment and stop this nosebleed. It appears, from my view, that a trendline roughly supporting the liftoff from the early 80's bisects the top channel line at the end of this year ( '97 ) . I have found that major bisections often indicate significant tops or bottoms in the future. Looking at that rise of the last couple years reminds me of a popped-up baseball. When I was a kid, with my first serious bow and arrows, I went into a huge open meadow and shot a field-tipped arrow straight up into the sky. I was thrilled at how far it soared, until it diappeared from view. Then my scalp crawled as I realized that at some point that arrow would cease rising and fall back on its path, point first, toward the earth. And my little head. The relief I felt when that arrow buried itself into the ground a number of yards away cannot be described. I think right about now blue chip mutual fund holders should be feeling the way I felt when the arrow disappeared.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 16:01
Joseph Granville asleep@switch>(asleep@switch):
What a bunch of jerks!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 16:00
Cherokee @Granville: Maybe he happened to be in the neighborhood. ..... In point of fact, he only belatedly recognized the bubble for what it was and is. Having now done so and having leaped upon the Guru train once again, his predictions for the ultimate top are no more valid than mine. I haven't clue and neither does he or anyone else for that matter. ..... I would be more concerned should he suddenly become a goldbug again.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 15:57
Alan Greenspan @The Fed>(@The Fed):

George Soros: Don't take physical delivery of bullion. Pretty please?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 15:55
Organ @ Short Squeeze>(@ Short Squeeze):
Panda mentioned that they ( Comex people? ) extended the terms on the Pt delivery. When is the 30 day period up? Who is actually on the hook for the metal -- is it Comex, or the shorts, or the lendees? What happens if the metal is still not available -- can the people responsible just default?

Still nobody has answered my questions with respect to gold, i.e. what happens when the long speculators want to take delivery of the metal, but there is not enough physical metal available at the exchange to pay it. Will the CB's sell or lend the gold to make the shortfall? Can the terms be extended to 30 days in the gold market? On what day is the August contract actually settled?

Thanks for answering -- I really need to know this info if I am going to take a long position next week.

- Organ

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 15:52
Can anyone confirm an upcoming ( this week ) currency crisis meeting in Shanghai as mentioned by STEVE-Perth?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 15:46
George Soros>(
Mike Sheller: That's the most lucid thing I've EVER heard you say. Now what do you see happening to my Jupiter this week?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 15:44
bb fisher 2@of 2>(2@of 2):
it would be lovely if we could designate more than one chart per post

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 15:44
Mike Sheller @the warrior>(@the warrior):
CHEROKEE: You raise puzzling issues concerning motives, agendas, and, most befuddling of all, identities. As for agendas, I suppose we all have them, though most of us believe we believe in what we are saying for the truth of it, even if we fall on our faces the next day. I try to, and I think you are so motivated as well. Perhaps most people do in their own way. As for tricky, slimy motives of manipulation, profit and greed, well, you pays yer money an' you takes yer chance. If Alan Greenspan himself made a statement, these days I would want to question his motives. This is a very thorny issue. It's hard enuf to understand a person when I'm staring at their naked horoscope, let alone judge their motives. Not that you may not have a point. As for identity, I ask how do we KNOW that WAS Joe Granville. Although WHY anyone would want anyone to think THEY were Joe Granville boggles my mind. But what is to prevent anyone from posting under any name? If Bill Clinton posted here, perhaps we might need to enlist Paula Jones to identify him by that unusual mark on his email how do we know this is Mike Sheller? Or that it isn't Earl masquerading as Mike. Although why anyone would want to...

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 15:43
bb fisher 2@charts>(2@charts):
this and the following post contain 2 very long term dow jones 30 studies with commentary. i hope you find them useful

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 15:33
Mike Sheller never met a chart I didn't like>(never met a chart I didn't like):
RON JETT: Thanks for the charts. Have bookmarked them as well. Strange as this sounds, technically speaking ( and legalistically, I admit ) the XAU is in a bull market! The correction from the top since the leg up from the '93 lows is actually quite in line with a reasonable pullback. If this is some sort of bottom for gold as we cyberspeak, then the next leg up may be the third in a wave count of 5. I am not a strict Elliot waver, nor a strict anything ( except for Percivillian Metaphysics ) , but the CASE can be made... If so, what does such a divergence between blue chip gold stock prices and bullion mean? Is this the confirmation of a manipulated ( artificially depressed ) gold market? If so, why also silver? Are the stocks merely conforming to the bouyancy of a general bull market in all shares? Is my martini cold yet?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 15:27
cherokee @rained-out>(@rained-out):
george cole--

granville should be riducled for his performance, or
more accurately, non-performance! he deserves to be
hammered by all. what is the motive of granville for
suddenly appearing on a gold channel, and gracing that
same group with his opinion? HIS agenda, and the pursuit
of same. what does he do for a living why suddenly appear
here? he is in a bind due to selling gold down the tubes, and
is now trying to TALK the market higher to keep himself solvent.
barking is one thing, biting is another. he should allude to his
investment record, for the record, and let the chips fall where they
may. there are a lot of folks who know nothing of these gurus
other than name identification. knowledge is power, and to know
of, and about granville, em-powers one to stay the hell away from
ANY advice he has to offer! if the tone is negative, consider his
advice and motives for posting here, at this juncture in history----

never look a gift horse in the mouth--right---look at the other end!

is this an attack no.....just stating his record, and questioning
his motives.

george, i ask you, why here and now; when gold is just beginning
to rally from 13 year lows? why? please humor me and thoughtfully
consider and answer as to his possible motives.

ted, earl, auric, eldo, moonman, rj, billd, steve-perth, geff,
viessere, oldman, vronsky, bart, any and all ------why? why now?

cherokee!; ) seeker-of-the-truth, curator-of-the-smoke-signals, imm---

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 15:27
EB Eric Blair - aka George Orwell...>(Eric Blair - aka George Orwell...):
It was a bright cold day in April and the clocks were striking thirteen...



Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 15:16
Tortfeasor Comment and joke of the day>(Comment and joke of the day):
I find it difficult to understand why a central bank with owners who no doubt realize that people have been killing people over gold since Adam was kicked out of the Garden of Eden would sell a commodity whose value is tried and tested and has stood the test of time for the American dollar or debt instruments. No paper money or paper investment ( other than the purchase of a Bible ) has stood the test of time--The paper is no better than the integrity of the government behind it. One must step back and ask--How much entegrity is behind the USA dollar and its promise to repay debt? Not a lot; I think we have been experiencing a case of pure dumb luck with this administration. I think the dice are about to shake economic craps. Now for the joke:

There where 3 nuns on a train. The talk lagged and they were bored with speaking of spiritual matters. They mutually decided that they would feel a lot better were they to confess their sins to each other, knowing that confession is good for the soul and knowing that they were equals and thus could bear the brunt of the confession.

The first nun got up and said, My greatest sin is sex. Every year I go out for a week and become a prostitute. Of couse I put all the money I earn in the poor box but that is my greatest sin.

The second nun got up and said, My greatest sin is drinking. Every year I take the money out of the poor box and drink for one consecutive week.

The third nun was sitting there being very quite. The other nuns said, Come now, we told you our worst sins, what is yours.

The third nun got up and said, My greatest sin is that I am a terrible gossip and I can't wait to get off this train!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 14:49
Donald @Home>(@Home):
China issues warning on currency trading rules. I posted this yesterday. The re-post is for those who missed it. I think that it is important and hides a deeper, undeclared meaning. Use scroll to find Business

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 14:33
Donald @Home>(@Home):
RJ: Are you here? I want to complement you on the way you took care of KGB. That was awesome. You are going to be one of the survivors.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 14:30
Ron Jett>(
Goldbug23, thankyou for the kid words of support. I hope all of us here that have metal interest - get to have the last hoot. We are only a few now as everyone seems to have jumped ship.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 14:19
Scott Ginn>(
What is the word on the street @ Gold mining Co? Understand that Newmont reached an all time low prdouction cash cost of 195/oz. Most Gold companies that mine in North America can produce gold in the High 200 range. Imagine if gold got much lower then $318 for extended period of time gold mining co's w/bad hedges would shutdown.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 14:18
Donald @Home>(@Home):
STEVE-PERTH: Re the bankers meeting. That was one of my public forecasts last week this time. I had predicted that Japan would host it though. Can I get a B+ for that one?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 14:11
Goldbug23 @Arma>(@Arma):
Steve - Perth: Your map of the El Nino effect of water temps is outstanding and the economic implications of this are awesome! Thanks.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 14:05
George Cole Joe Granville>(Joe Granville):
WW, Earl, and Steve: Looks like we are all on the same wavelength re: CB gold sales.

Cherokee: I too profoundly differ with Joe Granville re; the outlook for gold and stocks. Still, I do not like to see personal attacks on this forum from you, Hepcat, or anyone else. Rational debate should be the order of the day.

BTW, while Granville's long-term record leaves a lot to be desired, he has been quite good the past year or so. Very bullish on stocks and very bearish on gold. Many of us would be better off today if we had followed his advice.

I suspect things will be quite different the next 12 months. But we must give credit where credit is due.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 14:02
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust):
Ron Jett: Your charts are excellent and Thank You. I have them bookmarked. Well done!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 13:18
Steve - Perth>(
Giant Miner to set up in WA

Terry, am off to bed shortly. I don't have to get up that early. As I enjoy all the news feeds & commentary ( live ) , it helps gear me up for the next day's client interviews. I work at night a fair bit with my clients. ( after work etc ) .

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 13:12
Terry Oz@canada>(Oz@canada):

That's rather monkey'ish for Perth weather,what are you an insomniac,way past your bedtime?

Got one of me ladies old drinkin mates coming up here next month,trouble is I don't reckon she can handle it anymore.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 13:05
Steve - Perth>(
The year of the great Aussie float...
Leigh Hall of AMP Society say he is concerned that there are now many
institutional fund managers who have NOT experienced the crash of 1987.
He should know. They lost A$4 BILLION in ONE day that year. I remember
seeing their ads in the paper boasting 100% return in ONE year. In Australia, the market went up a lot higher than the US, & hit a lot harder. Hence Aussie share investors are a little more aware of a looming crash than their Yankie counterparts.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 13:01
Ron Jett>(
To all, I invite all of you that care about these metals markets to visit my humble attempt to chart these markets. My data is good adn I double check before charting. My system might be different in terms of ma's but they are very effective and I've back tested them to 1987 on daily DJ and 1983 with the XAU. There is some excellent work being done on the metals - mine is just a free offering I hope will help us all to smile again as the stock buyers run wild and carefree.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:58
George Cole ( 12:33 ) : Sorry I didn't mean follow your tracks. Just missed the post. ..... but we are together almost word for word.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:56
Steve - Perth>(
DONALD: Surprise, surprise! Central Bankers from Asia - Pacific region just happened to arrange a meeting in Shanghai about concern over currency problems in the region. Obviously they had booked this meeting up months ago!! I bet. I wonder if Rubin shows up Probably be on a video hook up or something.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:52
WW: You're right on the mark. CB gold dumping as threat or fact has run its course. From all appearances the numbers do not support the myth. The Australian experience has probably served to drive the final nail into that shiboleth. ........... The true damage done to mellow yellow, by the CBs has come largely as a result of their lending practices. Not as a result of sales. As the market begins to comprehend these things a bit better, in light of monetary matters, it will be interesting to see if their gold is returned with the same ease with which it was loaned.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:48
Steve - Perth>(
VANCOUVER: I agree, it is definitely worth doing the Grouse Mountain Chair Lift; if weather OK. Wife & I did trip there in 1993. City not that different to Perth as far as size & cleanliness. My brother visited some friends there two months ago. Uncle & Aunt used to live near Gibsons Landing ( Vancouver Island? ) where they used to make the old Canadian TV show The Beachcombers. We enjoyed the steam train ride up along the river. Those chain saw entertainers are mean, with the log competitions etc. Only thing was, I couldn't handle the sun shining from the South, instead of the North, when I wanted to work out what time it was. A real worry to a farmer type who is used to working by the sun.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:40
Steve - Perth @George S. Cole>(@George S. Cole):
Dumb! HA! HA! HA! HA!!!! My sentiments exactly. But the good researcher must be able to handle the SPIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Our press is appalling. Packer & Murdoch control it anyway. Those two must have some interesting positions on gold!!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:39
Donald: Of course you're right. The market cleanses excess. Unfortunately, it also cleanses political office holders as well and therein lies the contradiction and source of economic/monetary distortion. Sooner or later the market does win but the consequences are so much worse. As I fear, we about to find out.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:38
Richard Burke On Gulf of Georgia>(On Gulf of Georgia):
auroelf: welcome to BC. I can add a couple of things: dinner at the restaurant at the top of the Grouse Mountain Chair Lift; if this fantastic weather holds, rent a 16 ft. power boat at Sewells at Horseshoe Bay, pack a lunch, and spent a day or afternoon cruising around Bowen Island and vicinity; drive down to Crescent Beach and lie in the sun and walk out on the miles of sand bars ( water is clean unlike Vancouver beaches currently ) . You could also come over to Vancouver Island and go out to Long Beach on the Pacific Ocean - a truly great trip. Happy visiting.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:36
Steve - Perth>(
DONALD: I am sure you are able to read through the spin in these articles. Am just posting them out of general interest. I must confess I tend to ignore some of the more ridiculous paragraphs, but prefer to keep paragraphs of interest within the context of the written article.
I haven't lost the faith. Do not worry.....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:33
George Cole CB selling?>(CB selling?):
STEVE; Andy Smith and Ted Arnold should sue the author of that piece on the fate of gold for plagiarism. You would never know from reading it that the CBs as a group have sold very little gold on balance and that a number of CBs are buyers, Cheap CB gold loans are what has been killing the market.

The Fed has no say re: whether the U.S. buys or sells gold. That is up to Rubin's Treasury.

One of the dumbest articles re; gold I have ever seen. Wonder if the author is one of the many press assets of the American CIA. Or possibly on the payroll of some big gold shorts. I have never witnessed a more blatant attempt to instigate market panic.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:31
Steve - Perth>(
Cherokee, this huge gif ( worth the wait ) shows the huge rise in sea temperature off the west coast of South America.
El Nino still coming strong. We're watering the lawns now in Perth, & it is the middle of our winter. The frosts have wiped out our feed lupins up at the farm north of Perth. Dad is not happy about that. This is unusual. We have not had continual frosts/zero-3 degrees minimums without a let up like this for years. If ever. Farmers in wheat belt are saying frosts are drying up the wheat crops. Most still will get A crop. But will need finishing spring rains. We will see.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:30
Donald @Home>(@Home):
EARL: If there is one universal belief among politicians of all parties, left, right, center, throughout the world, it is that depressions and recessions must be avoided at all costs. What they don't know is that the depression-recession is the politicians best friend. That it automatically does the dirty work for you. It makes the tough decisions via the market place that can't be made any other way. In the recent Russian example it took 72 years, 1917-1989. Russia will be better off in the long run. The market always wins. As John Exeter was fond of saying the market is the master of us all

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:27
Mike Sheller disillusioned>(disillusioned):
CHEROKEE: What? Bernatz the alter ego of ANYONE? Please...let it not be true.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:25
WW @NE>(@NE):
The article mentioned by Steve does not include the reports strange conclusion that gold would go to 309 if all gold sold. I do not think countries want to give up their gold which gives them a measure of independence and leverage against the dollar makers in WASH. China is not developing its mining industry so it can be shut down by a major gold sale dittos for Russia. Japan and SA will also not go along. If US acts alone bye bye dollar. Further with the risk of financial turmoil increasing the idea of gold sales is ridiculous. Once the crisis gets rolling talk of gold sales will turn into talk of gold buying. The CB anti-gold camp is sold out with the exception of the biggest debtor nation and reserve currency US.
Look what happened to the Aussie dollar after they sold their gold.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:19
vronsky The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy>(The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy):
Dr. Geoffrey P.Miller, Professor of Law and Director, Center for Study of Central Banks, New York University Law School - presents erudite and comprehensive study. SEE Editorials:

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:18
Donald ( 11:41 ) : You might have added that present and future turmoil is largely the result of abdication of our ( US ) responsibility as holder of the world's reserve currency. We have allowed our appetite to run unchecked. Used our position for personal gain at the expense of our neighbors and they know it. We are now witness to the end result.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:17
Donald @Home>(@Home):
STEVE-PERTH: They are clearly interested in social welfare and economic
efficiency, neither of which is enhanced by the Fed owning 262
million ounces of gold.

That snippet from The Age, Melbourne, seems wrong to me. If we lose the confidence of currency we lose everything. Do they want a return to barter? Do they really believe that currency chaos will improve social and economic efficiency? Whoever wrote that article knows nothing of history.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:17
cherokee @lake-bound----again>(@lake-bound----again):
joe granville--

your recent comment pertaining to the common investor
and smart money ( if correct ) leads me to take the next
step. due to their newly acquired prescience, there should
no longer be a need for services such as the very one you
provide. maybe the smart money could use your help now, as
the return on your advice is hardly note-worthy. a recent
compendium of analysts, and their success/failure ratios,
had you almost dead last. please post your recommendations
here, they can be used as contrarian data. most analysts
who sell their recommendations, have abyssmal records. if
they were able to accurately predict markets, they would
be wealthy from TRADING the markets with their OWN money,
and would not have to sell a market-letter to generate an
income. please, post your analysis on a daily basis, as this
group will call you to task in a heart-beat.


you're on......


one of teds' seagulls with a load of soybeans should have landed
a couple of days ago.

squealch function a much better idea than mine. when do we get
the new toy? misery loves company, and the miserable can be together,
forever! ( marshall tucker ) this function effectively creates another
entire channel. the normal channel, and one for the wackers.


have you deserted your children? you came, adopted, and left in a hurry.


has there been any info on the up-coming el-nino and
its' expected impact on the farming regions? this
one is supposed to be the worst in 50 years. we
should begin to see its' impact this winter.


you made my day with your rj hiking his skirt comments. you are
an alter-ego of a regular, and one of my favorites!!!!! your reserved seat on the ssm awaits your arrival.

cherokee---!; ) seeker-of-the-signals, hacker-of-the-wackers-----

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:14
Steve - Perth>(
Russian exports to West of Primary Metals to continue/increase for foreseeable future...

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:12
cherokee @lake-bound----again>(@lake-bound----again):
joe granville--

your recent comment pertaining to the common investor
and smart money ( if correct ) leads me to take the next
step. due to their newly acquired prescience, there should
no longer be a need for services such as the very one you
provide. maybe the smart money could use your help now, as
the return on your advice is hardly note-worthy. a recent
compendium of analysts, and their success/failure ratios,
had you almost dead last. please post your recommendations
here, they can be used as contrarian data. most analysts
who sell their recommendations, have abyssmal records. if
they were able to accurately predict markets, they would
be wealthy from TRADING the markets with their OWN money,
and would not have to sell a market-letter to generate an
income. please, post your analysis on a daily basis, as this
group will call you to task in a heart-beat.


you're on......


one of teds' seagulls with a load of soybeans should have landed
a couple of days ago.

squealch function a much better idea than mine. when do we get
the new toy? misery loves company, and the miserable can be together,
forever! ( marshall tucker ) this function effectively creates another
entire channel. the normal channel, and one for the wackers.


have you deserted your children? you came, adopted, and left in a hurry.


has there been any info on the up-coming el-nino and
its' expected impact on the farming regions? this
one is supposed to be the worst in 50 years. we
should begin to see its' impact this winter.


you made my day with your rj hiking his skirt comments. you are
an alter-ego of a regular, and one of my favorites!!!!! your reserved seat on the ssm awaits your arrival.

cherokee---!; ) seeker-of-the-signals, hacker-of-the-wackers-----

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 12:03
Ron Bosnia>(Bosnia):
Still a very volatile situation. The Serbs are none too happy about recent apprehensions of war criminals, and they could conceivably take up arms against UN and NATO troops until the arrests cease. Some Serbs are already throwing grenades -- and are being arrested for it, as happened last week when British troops were targeted. As required under the Dayton peace accords, the Brits turned over the grenade throwers to Serb police, who then quickly released them. Regardless of what the UN and NATO do, it seems that the US has only three choices: ( 1 ) leave next year on schedule, ( 2 ) stay on indefinitely, or ( 3 ) renegotiate the Dayton agreement. Each choice is loaded with risk. See

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 11:58
Auroelf: @trendlines. ... I have yet to be convinced that great precision is required in positioning them. Minor violations of the trend are generally meaningless and a major trend change is apparent regardless of precise line position. Some would even draw trendlines as an ( eyeball ) average or mean overlayed on prices ( Jack Schwager as I recall ) .

BTW. Since you will be on Vanc. Island, consider some salmon fishing in Campbell River. Esthetically it is a little removed from the remainder of your itinerary but it is about the right time of year for the run of big King salmon. OTOH, it is equally pleasant to enjoy the salmon as the product of commercial effort. Over glass of wine with a view of beautiful BC.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 11:52
Steve - Perth>(
Gold's fate in US hands.... ( Read the last three paragraphs. Big sell off of IMF gold occurred between 1976 & 1980 ) Remember US$126 an ounce, chartists?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 11:47
Barb-ette @barbadoe ranch>(@barbadoe ranch):
John Disney re: Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 09:44 post.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 11:47
vronsky IS 1929 BEING REPLAYED THIS YEAR? - by Guest Guru Ure>(IS 1929 BEING REPLAYED THIS YEAR? - by Guest Guru Ure):
There is an uncannily similarity between the DOW from January 1920 to April 1930 AND TODAY’S DOW track record. Avoid reading this study at your own peril - GUEST GURU URE:

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 11:47
KJB Devaluation 101>(Devaluation 101):
....another article:

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 11:45
Steve - Perth>(
Thanks Donald.
Article on Gold's Rise & Fall, Melbourne Age...Monday 21st July

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 11:41
Donald @Home>(@Home):
STEVE-PERTH: Asian Stir Fry?, I like that one. This site and questions like yours forces one to think things through. At this point I am thinking out loud..some points: 1. Countries will each act in what they piercieve to be their own best interest. 2. I see a trade war developing and countries are being forced to choose sides. 3. China will not be happy with a Yen Bloc. The US will also not be happy with it for a different reason. 4. Then there is the EMU Bloc 5. I get the feeling that we are very rapidly drifting into chaos, massive re-alignments in stocks, currencies, metals, debtors and creditors all at exactly the same time. Any single one of these problems would cause a major distraction on its own, combined they are clearly not manageable by Mr. Rubin or any country. It was revealed by Taiwan only days ago that the US asked it to assist in the Mexican bailout in 1994. Taiwan says it refused. Now the US situation has deteriorated to the point that whatever it does can only make the situation worse.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 11:35
Steve - Perth>(
Australian CPI falls below 1%. Possibility of negative inflation, or deflation for first time in five years.
Have to laugh. We have a State Govt super fund that pays interest on suspended accounts at CPI + 1% p.a. Imagine a 1% p.a. return versus say 4% in cash elsewhere? Yes, it is a shocking scheme. It was hard to explain that to the Public Servants during the late 80's. They did not believe that negative inflation could happen!! We get the last laugh again.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 11:26
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie):
But wait there's more!!!

Vanguard chief says equity markets too speculative:

Fresh attacks on key currencies and more to follow:

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 11:18
panda @>(@):
Be back later.....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 11:14
Terry Oz@canada>(Oz@canada):
Something of interest?

China: Daley to visit for deficit talks



By Mark Suzman in Washington


Mr William Daley, US commerce secretary, is to visit China to press for further opening of its domestic market for US exporters, in the light of the soaring bilateral trade deficit between the two countries.

His announcement yesterday followed the publication of figures showing the US trade deficit with China in May rose 9.1 per cent to $3.8bn, exceeding the closely watched deficit with Japan, which fell 25 per cent to $3.63bn.

The overall US trade deficit for the month rose 17 per cent to $10.23bn, fuelled by record imports and a small drop in exports of industrial machinery and telecommunications equipment.

The rise exceeded market expectations and reflected the continued US appetite for goods from abroad, with the biggest increases in imports coming in civilian aircraft, cars and industrial supplies.

Analysts warned that the drop in the Japanese deficit reflected a seasonal pattern and on a year-on-year basis it continued to increase.

However, Mr Daley said that while the rise in the Japanese deficit was significantly slower than the overall growth in US imports, the steady increase in the Chinese deficit was a bigger cause for concern.

He said he would meet Chinese officials in the autumn to discuss attempts to open their domestic market to outside companies in the context of the country's application to join the World Trade Organisation.

China's economy has been growing at double-digit rates but its imports from the US and the rest of the world do not reflect that, he said.

Total imports for May stood at $87.5bn, up from $86.6bn in April, marking the seventh consecutive monthly rise. By contrast, exports dropped 0.8 per cent to $77.2bn as sales of capital goods, cars and food all fell.

However, economists stressed that the underlying trend in the deficit remained steady, and the unexpectedly big total partly reflected the continuing strength of the dollar.

The weakness in exports should have been predictable based on how strong they were earlier this year, said Mr Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at HSBC Markets. It doesn't mean the tide has turned.

Trade deficits with the US's two partners in the North American Free Trade Agreement ( Nafta ) also widened in May, with Canada's more than doubling to $1.74bn and Mexico's rising by 21.7 per cent to $1.7bn.

The overall trade surplus in services, a traditional US strength, rose 0.5 per cent to $6.81bn, as net exports for the sector in the first five months of 1997 rose to $34.3bn, up 9 per cent on the same period last year.

The trade surplus in agriculture also fell slightly to $1.06bn, down from $1.44bn in April. Exports dropped to $4.24bn, down from $4.5bn, as sales of soybeans, cotton and wheat all fell, while imports rose to $3.18bn from $3.01bn, reflecting increased purchases of coffee and rice.

© Copyright the Financial Times Limited 1997

FT and Financial Times are trademarks of The Financial Times Limited.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 11:14
panda @you're kidding. :-)>(@you're kidding. :-)):
Loose the hounds of war and cry havoc!

Let the finger pointing begin! So the banks did it! They thought the markets were to high? So they did something about it?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 11:13
Steve - Perth>(
Death of a Financier
From the Monday AM paper in Sydney...

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 11:13
auroelf gratia tuo, felix sum>(gratia tuo, felix sum):
John N. Thanks so much for the suggestions. I'm delighted.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 11:10
nomercy cause and effect of currency devaluations>(cause and effect of currency devaluations):
..first signs of the impact on US exports and contracts

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 11:05
panda @don't worry, be happy!>(@don't worry, be happy!):
U.S. ready to handle stock dive!

Rubin says he isn’t going!

O.K. See, there is no problem!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 11:04
nomercy Fires- Treasury on high alert>(Fires- Treasury on high alert):

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 10:58
panda @>(@):
Organ -- Regarding PA dislocation. 'They' gave everyone an extra thirty days to settle! Sort of like, O.K. you can't pay me today, how about in thirty days? Would this qualify as a 'market emergency'?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 10:47
Steve - Perth>(
If the Mexican currency collapse was known as the tequila effect, will the current currency problems be referred to in future as the Asian Currency Stir Fry?
DONALD: Would love to hear your outlook for the next 6 - 12 months. I'm sure you have some interesting views. Don't worry if you are off target a bit.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 10:47
bb fisher FYI>(FYI):
for anyones info there is a new data storage mechanism which is cheap very easy to use and is backwardly compatible with all A floppy drives. i know panasonic makes one and mitsumi as well. do a net search fro an LS-120Mb Floppy drive.

thats right this puppy is backwardly compatible ( it will read and write ) to all current floppy disks as well as the new media which holds 120Mb of data. this is fast, easy to use and sures beats a tape drive or to my mind a zip drive.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 10:47
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie):
There's a stack of interesting URL's at this site

happy reading

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 10:46
John N. Retiarivs sed felix non>(Retiarivs sed felix non):

Golden pursuits for the elfish: SeaBus, Butchart's only if in Victoria ( pretty, clean, civilized city ) , Cypress Bowl Road for city view, shopping at Pacific Centre, tourist traps on Robsonstrasse, dine at the Timber Club or one of two revolving restaurants, harbour tour and dinner afloat, see the seamy side of Vancouver with a Sky Train ride to Surrey and back fare includes Sea Bus, catch Spirit of Haida Gwai at airport, Canada Stockwatch hq in Stock Exchange Tower, Placer Dome headquarters in Bental Centre!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 10:31
Organ @ Short Squeeze>(@ Short Squeeze):
Rumour has it that Soros the Great has sold $800m worth of 30 years' and bought same amount of gold futures contracts. I have noticed that the COMEX has less than 1m oz of gold in its inventory. If George wants to take delivery of the gold, it is obvious that there is not enough physical out there to pay him at the end of the month. This should set up a short squeeze situation, where the price of gold goes skyrocketing because of the lack of supply ( especially in this thin market ) . My question is, what is the mechanism of transfer if there is not enough gold in the inventories? How did the platinum contracts get resolved when there wasn't enough Pt to go around? Did the CB's or U.S. strategic stockpile release their metal to satisfy the demand of speculators who wanted their platinum immediately? Will the CB's sell or lend gold to help out the shorts in this case? Thanks in advance!


Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 10:18
Strad Master, have a nice vacation in the mountains. As a teen-ager, I used to go to dances in that area, it was beautiful there and probably still is.

I will be in Anaheim Calif Saturday & Sunday. Will be staying at the Hilton at the convention center. Are there any Kitcoites there? Would love to have coffee. I will be in San Bernardino & Victorville Monday & Tues. ( Just a stone's throw Strad ) . This is my real E-Mail address.

Lets hope there are no surprises in the market next week and gold continues its climb.

I will be taking my laptop with me but will be moving around a lot so don't know if I will be able to keep in touch

God Bless you all

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 10:13
Steve - Perth>(
Sir James Goldsmith made page 8 of the Perth Sunday Times. Great gem..
Renowned for his keen sense of market timing, Sir James' investment motto was: If you see a bandwagon, it's too late. I'll be slotting that one away for future reference...

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 10:12
nomercy currencies devaluations continue>(currencies devaluations continue):

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 10:08
Steve - Perth>(
MILLHOUSE: After reading The Asian Mind Game some time ago, I think you are spot on re: China & Taiwan. The key words are stealth & deception. The deception I feel is partly rooted in generations needing to survive centuries of poverty. Once something is built into a mind-set, it is pretty hard to knock out. It is worth noting however, the massive building program going on in Shanghai. Some of those buildings are massive. I know one thing, power follows where the money goes.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 10:06
Vronsky: Bill Buckler has a really great issue this week. Perhaps you could swing it so that he could be a guest guru or something and everybody could read it. Now that I've plugged you both, breakfast calls.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 10:03
Mike Sheller accolades>(accolades):
Where else can one come and find culture sandwiched between gold prices and scuttlebutt, if not Kitco! BBFISHER: Thanks for the poem and Langston Hughes. RJ: You reminded me of how much I was once infatuated with Mickey Spillane...and why. Gracias tambien! It's always a pleasure finding talent, passion, and joy for life on the monitor here. The truly civilized and intelligent offerings that are daily kitco fare are always enjoyed.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 10:03
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Good morning ED! Why don't you join our little discussion group at KITCO!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 09:58
Mike Sheller Blue Skies smilin'>(Blue Skies smilin'):
EARL: If you connect that '93 bottom showing on your silver chart with the 71/72 base from which silver rose majestically once upon a time, you will have the essential remaining support line beneath the current silver market at this point in time. That level, give or take for time/space aberration over two decades, should work out to roughly 4.09 to 4.15. It may even have been hit in the last couple weeks. I don't want to appear excessively pollyannaish over silver, and my shares of recently bought SSC notwithstanding , but I think this potential floor under silver is important to be watched. A breakdown below 4.09 or so would lead me to believe a truly deflationary paradigm shift is underway. I'm not ready to accept that fully. But then there are many aspects of reality I'm not ready to accept...fully.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 09:55
nomercy Dow>(Dow):
...perception is befitting of the Dow...
Delete some dog's ei ) Woolworth's & replace it with Walmart, and voila' the Dow CONTINUES its uptrend.
...and we ACCEPT IT ...THEIR mind conditioning is incredible!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 09:44
John Disney>(
For Hepcat -
I dont know exactly how you do it - but you are one of the most
tiresome and annoying people Ive ever had any contact with.
It must be really dreadful to be you. I cannot imagine anyone
being able to stand you even for a brief period of time. You are
truely painful. Dont bother to reply - I try to avoid your posts
since they contain neither meaningful information nor ideas. They
merely annoy. Rotten little kids can do that.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 09:32
WDL @joke for the day>(@joke for the day):
Good morning from just outside Beantown...I occasionally post and enjoy the Kitco site..not to steal Tortfeasor's thunder ( I enjoy his jokes...
particularly the one about Tonto Goldstein! )

I just read that Showtime ( Cable TV ) will be doing a movie about the
lives of N.Y. Yankees' manager Joe Torre and his brother, Frank.

This reminds me of a story about Joe Torre. Torre had just been called up to the majors and was inserted in the lineup in the late innings as a backup cathcher in a meaningless, out-of hand game. . ( Torre's team was
trailing by several runs ) .

With a runner on second ( I believe it was the massive Frank Howard ) ,
the next batter lines a single to left...with Howard ( Le Grand Orange )
bearing down on Torre and the ball arriving late from the outfield...
Torre, inexplicably, moved out of the way of the oncoming Howard.

When Torre got back to the dugout..he sheepishly looked at his manager...the first words out of the manager's mouth ( a New Englander
I believe by birth ) were: Chicken Catcha Torre!

I realize it's pretty corny...but, it's Sunday morning and I haven't had my coffee yet...have a great day!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 09:08
Bob M>(
Good morning , gentlemen. Anything new and exciting going on this morning in the world that will affaect the metals?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 08:58
TED @sorry>(@sorry):
Sorry! Itchy trigger finger...

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 08:56
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
DONALD: The latest from Bangkok....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 08:56
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
DONALD: The latest from Bangkok....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 08:55
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
DONALD: The latest from Bangkok....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 08:47
TED @donald>(@donald):
Thanks Donald!...I follow Thailand closely as my brother is a trader on the S.E.T. ( the Thai stock exchange ) amd has lived in Bangkok for many years...Big problems are brewing in S.E. Asia...Right Jin...

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 08:45
Donald @Home>(@Home):
The Japanese point of view on Thailand.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 08:40
Donald @Home>(@Home):
TED: Here is the latest on Thailand and assistance from Japanese banks.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 08:27
Good afternoon JIN!...You have a letter...Keep us at Kitco informed about gold and the rapidly changing currencies in your area as S.E. Asia seems to have the potential to move gold one way or another in the near future.
Will Japan bail out Thailand and who is next

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 08:22
auroelf Vancouver>(Vancouver):
British Columbians: The Vancouver Stock Exchange is closed to visitors. I had hoped to see where the gold juniors trade, but their public relations staff says no. What are the other must-see sights in and around town, besides UBC Botanic Gardens, VanDusen Gardens, SunYatSen Gardens, Butcharts Gardens, and is Minter Gardens worth the trip?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 08:21
bb fisher ode@to hepcat>(ode@to hepcat):
There was once a time
hard to do
achievement earned
meant more to you
but with time
came changes towards
personal effort saw diminished rewards

Now were're here and here is where
group is all
the 'you' is small
achievment earned is still hard to do
was achievement won because of 'you'?

The nagging doubts...
you'll never know
for you hepcat and not in jest
ole langston hughes sends his best

Trumpet Player

The Negro
With the trumpet at his lips
Has dark moons of weariness
Beneath his eyes
Where the smoldering memory
Of slave ships
Blazed to the crack of whips
About his thighs.

The Negro
With the trumpet at his lips
Has a head of vibrant hair
Tamed down,
Patent-leathered now
Until it gleams
Like jet--
Were jet a crown.

The music
From the trumpet at his lips
Is honey
Mixed with liquid fire.
The rhythm
From the trumpet at his lips
Is ecstasy
Distilled with old desire--

That is longing for the moon
Where the moonlight's but a spotlight
In his eyes,
That is longing for the sea
Where the sea's a bar-glass
Sucker size.

The Negro
With the trumpet at his lips
Whose jacket
Has a fine one-button roll,
Does not know
Upon what riff the music slips
Its hypodermic needle
To his soul--

But softly
As the tune comes from his throat
Mellows to a golden note.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 08:20
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Argentina frets about a Brazilian devaluation, Alan Greenspan testimony and its impact on Argentina, and the Tequila Effect of problems in Latin America. ( This is all in Spanish )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 08:16
auroelf replies>(replies):
Front: Thanks. IT advice worked. Yes, a great toy.

Earl: Your ABX/NEM chart has a gap on July 18 that may later be filled.
Your silver chart looks dismal for the longs, better for those patiently awaiting a re-entry point. But why do you and panda draw your channel lines through the candles, rather than at the outside edges of the shadow? The outlying days that exceeded expectations are still real. Thanks again for recommending Beyond Candlesticks. It is even better than Nison's first book, with clearer discussion of the patterns after his additional years of practice and research into the Japanese sources.
I must try to read all I can of it over the next few days, before leaving for a 3 week trip.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 07:46
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Korean government attempts to stop bankruptcy chain reaction.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 07:37
Donald @Home>(@Home):
This from London headlines, no date given.
US dollar stocks dominate Singapore market
Small-capitalised stocks denominated in US dollars dominated activity on
the Singapore stock market as the local currency slipped to new 30-month
lows, dealers said.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 07:36
TED @stevepuetz>(@stevepuetz):
Welcome back Steve! Your plan sounds good to only please!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 07:35
stokes up@early>(up@early):
Got up early and have been surfing the curriency related net. It looke like the US Dollar will go up a bit more to reach Ian McAvity's target of 1.85 or so. Since gold has been mirroring the dollar in reverse and the stockmarket has been going up with the dollar, it lookes like we have some more pain to go through before the lows for gold are in.
BUBA and Greenspan do not have too much flexibility with regard to intrest rates, so the currency speculators will probably push things to a further extreme.
This is OK with me as it will allow some further accumulation of the gold and silver and Paladium shares ( SWC ) . It appears that the South African shares that I have been following ( WDEPY, BLYVY, and HGMCY ) have done very well this last week. They are up about double what the NA unhedged majors have done.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 07:27
George Cole stock market>(stock market):
Donald: I forgot to add, don't bet the farm on little birdies. But seriously, the market is more likely to break sharply when Dow 8000 has APPARENTLY changed from resistance to support. But when this market does break for real ( probably next month ) it will go down HARD.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 07:13
Donald @Home>(@Home):
GEORGE S. COLE: There is a hint of Fall on this beautiful morning, mabye you could tell your little birdie to head south now and not wait for 8300?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 06:54
George S. Cole Base Building>(Base Building):

A little birdie tells me the stock market still has not peaked. Probably one more rally to 8300 or so before it turns south for real.

Gold's short=term acion may frustrate both the bulls and the bears, Lots of volatility but no clear trend. WW is right in arguing there is a fifty-fifty chance gold will drop below $320 next week.

We are now entering a base building period in preperation for a huge bull move. And the bull likes to charge with as few riders as possible..

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 06:48
I'm Back: Ted goes on vacation and gold collapses while the Dow soars. I go on vacation and gold rallies and the Dow declines. I am not a superstitious person. Nonetheless, you may want to pay Ted to stay home, and contribute to my vacation fund.

I'm back.

Steve Puetz

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 06:40
TED @ted>(@ted):
Bunch of early risers we got....Talkin to my damn self....and this early in the day yet....Usually don't start that until at least 9 AM...

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 06:16
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
KJB:Methinks it's only a THREAT that Japan will unload U.S. Treasury bonds...Why shoot yourself in the foot?....Scotty: Did you expect anything differen't?....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 06:12
TED @earl>(@earl):
Earl ( 00:22 ) You are starting to sound like me.....can we really be the kiss of death?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 05:45
TED @stradmaster>(@stradmaster):
Strad Master:Have a good two weeks and I hope you're right....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 05:41
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Good mornin ALL....WE had a beautiful sunrise over the North Atlantic and now it's just a damn nice day to be on this planet....and the ocean!.....
Lookin forward to tonight and seein if the Asians want to continue our nice little rally....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 05:13
Strad Master Predictions>(Predictions):
ALL: Well, guys 'n gals, I leaving for two weeks to teach Chamber Music at a festival in the San Bernardino Mountains ( Idyllwild - for you Southern Californians. ) If the past history of my leaving for trips is any prognosticator of the future, I predict the following. The price of metals will surge upward. Many of you will make lots of money. So, until I return in two weeks, good luck to you all. Make lots of money!!!! I can't wait to hear all the stories when I get back. God bless you all.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 05:08
Who Cares?>(

John - scaffolding? Whatch you talkin' 'bout, Willis?

I don't really care, John. Other than as an intellectual
exercise. History is pretty clear. There's not much that
*my* particular viewpoint can affect, now is there?

It would be *nice* not to have my life disrupted, and I've
done the best I can over the past seven years to accomplish
that. But, ultimately, what I *believe* doesn't make much

And the DJ is a perfect example of that. Personally, I would
be quite pleased if Greenspan & Co manage to make the whole
game last another five years. But I'd be really surprised if
they do.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 04:58

Man, think when the whole structure you're supporting right now
starts to collapse. How do you squelch the sound of scaffolding
when it starts to evaginate?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 04:43
Who Cares?>(

John - Sorry, I'm not real big on details these days. Carton,
_Henry's_. Portland. The only beer I can really distinguish
from tea.

And. I strongly warn you. You can screw with Millhouse, you
can screw with Earl. You can even screw with me, 'cause I don't
hardly care. But...

FEAR my wife. Trust me on this. : )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 04:36
Who Cares?>(

Millhouse, re: monetization.

Well, I do have a couple of ideas. I *hope* that everyone here
knows how Uncle Sam has restructured his debt under our pal Bill.

If you check out the Treasury site, they'r refunding something
like almost $1T per month now. And an additional $2T has been
shifted into 2-5 year notes. So, like, *any* increase in
interest rates turns Uncle Sam into one gigantic S&L. He's
loaned long into the future ( entitlements, etc ) , and
borrowed short. An increase in rates sinks the boat, it would
probably show up fairly quickly.

And, because this has been talked about so widely, I imagine
that Sam's #1 concern to to avoid showing the *symptoms* of
a S&L-like blowout. Ergo, rates can NOT be allowed to rise. : )

And, shifting that much money around, they HAVE to have really
messed up the yield curves and such. I really have no idea of
what kind of effect it's had. I know it's not trustworthy.

I *believe* that the great amount of U.S. bonds bought up in
the past two years is a big, bad sign, but I can't pin it down
beyond my belief that it indicates that *average* investors are
already shifting away from U.S. debt.

Heck, Sam has already played two big rabbits out of his hat,
keeping it all going for the past two years. I have every
expectation that they have done extensive computer simulations
and probably have a couple more rabbits left. But, I also
imagine that every rabbit just makes the long-term outcome
even worse.

And. If Sam were to monetize the debt, the first signs would
*appear* to be a booming, health economy, no? So, we could
expect that tax revenues really *are* increasing, too. : )

I'm surprised that they'd let a number like 9.2% out, though.
They've been all over the map on the public pronouncements of
the yearly deficit. Why not just fake the other numbers, too?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 04:31

Indeed. Or what is a wife if not a return beer to carton Stepford animatronic.
( What kind of beer comes out of a carton? Beer ice cream? )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 04:23
Who Cares?>(

John, John, John. What is a year in the life of a young
retiree? : )

You're right. I been waiting awhile. I finally decided in
1994 that paper was dead. The collapse should have started in
'91, and it did. Batra was right. Donald knows this, don't
you, Don? And Puetsch ( oh, man, I know I got that wrong,
but luckily, my wife put TWO almost-empty beer bottles back
in the carton : ) ) was doing his calculations back in '94,
I've got a clip somewhere.

Regardless. I hereby give you full permission to buy into
it. : )

The only thing that Batra and Davidson got wrong is just how
desperately governments would try to keep the game going. I
give them credit. They bought us SIX years. Beyond imagination,
as the thought that a $250K house could now be selling for $125K. : )

9.2% That's really, *really* bad number, John. : ) My wife's
astrology chart says to avoid 9s in the month of August. : )

Wait, wait. 3-2-5, that sums up to.. 10. Oh, crap, THAT is
bad number, John. When you do the $10K bet, do it for something
like $324.90, or $325.10. : )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 04:18
Milhouse @Money Supply>(@Money Supply):

Earl, Who Cares, Joe37 - it seems counter-intuitive to me that 65B of debt could be retired during a time when the money supply is increasing at such an incredible pace. The only things which come immediately to mind are :
1. The increase in private debt has dramatically exceeded the reduction in Federal debt over this period, and much of this private debt has been monetised by the banks ( note - this may explain the continued flood of money into the stockmarket )
2. The retiring of the debt involved the purchase, by the Fed, of Govt debt which had previously been owned by non-monetary agents ( private individuals, Japanese Govt, etc ) and this debt was then monetised by the Fed ( that is, they created new money to purchase it ) . The debt would then have been retired by a transfer of 65B from the Treasury to the Fed. Why they would do this is beyond me, unless they do not want to take any action which may strengthen the dollar.

Anyone else have any ideas ?
Regards, Milhouse

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 04:10

Of course, people have been talking about the imminent collapse of
the bubble, for, oh, I don't know, about the last year on this site.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 04:07
Who Cares?>(

And the quintessential message of Los Angeles is that nobody
here ever believes they're going to die.

Sounds like you missed the big bubble, from 87-89. Man, I got
out JUST in time, June 1990. : ) But, of course, at that time,
NOBODY believed it was a real estate bubble. Prices went up
25% in 87, 25% in 88, 25% in 89, and it was never going to end,
even though NOBODY could even afford their own homes anymore.

It was a pretty wild ride. And I almost got suckered, too. I
*almost* got caught up. I watched people buying on margin,
selling, and making $1000s of dollars, doing nothing, for
almost three years.

The current market is exactly the same. It's not even real
money. It has *zero* meaning. But, luckily, I have already
lived through one bubble. : ) I like gold. A lot. : ) I was
on the Santa Monica pier in, er, yeah, gad, was it last August?

L.A. has changed a *lot* in six years. Real quiet. The cars
are junky. Nobody on the pier talked much. And they had a neat
historical plaque that listed George Bush and the New World Order. : )

They actually started rebuilding the pier the month after I left. : )

L.A. has already seen depression. I'm kind of interested in if
it will see further misfortunate when this new, paper bubble pops.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 04:03
If Nailz is indeed correct that demand for gold was up at the state coin show,
then this marks the 20th consecutive week where someone at Kitco has
posted that demand for gold was up at the state coin show. I'm not sure
exactly how to incorporate this information. After the FUN show in Florida
this winter, a number of people came on site all out of breath saying how
demand was way up compared to previous years. I guess it just shows
that the common man is Idiot, since gold dropped like a rock thereafter.
Meanwhile, we always can rely on RJ giving us the latest installment in
his Oh thank-you, thank-you, you're too kind, I'm not a writer but let me
not-write for you series.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:57
RJ Who Cares>(Who Cares):
Redondo aye? - I will skate Redondo to Santa Monica tomorrow. The Stand is quintessential California. The men all look like Timothy Leary, the women all look like Baywatch.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:51
RJ Who Cares?>(Who Cares?):
Indeed....... I do.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:49
RJ Earl>(Earl):
I figured you would get it. You did not disappoint.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:48
Who Cares?>(

RJ - history. That's right. Come on, man. I even gave you
a Master's thesis for free!!!! : ) You never looked up Dalio,
did you? I knew you wouldn't. It's okay. : )

But, when somebody puts EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE in my face, I pay
attention. : ) Railroads - networks, information monopolies,
conspiracies! Get on board the train, chum! CHOO!! CHOO!!!

Sorry, I've overdown my limit tonight, I'm on my second beer,
and my students actually surprassed my expectations on Fridyay.
They got that info thing, the essence of it, right off the bat. : )

Even whipped out a digital template for making fake state IDs.

Hey, when students in the fourth quintile whip out fake paper,
I KNOW gold is the real deal. : )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:46
RJ Schippi - Orwell also wrote:>(Schippi - Orwell also wrote:):
All writers are vain, selfish and lazy, and at the very bottom of their motives lies a mystery. Writing a book is a long, exhausting struggle, like a long bout of some painful illness. One would never undertake such a thing if one were not driven by some demon whom one can neither resist nor understand

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:45
RJ: And perception is reality. In sum, not as contradictory as it appears on first reading.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:42
Who Cares?>(

RJ's spent too much time in Newport Beach. : ) It's an okay place
to be born ( okay, okay, Redondo, close enough ) , but it's a GREAT
place to be FROM. : )

Hepcat - I don't mind villians, but I find their frames of
reference interesting.. Like, the phrase lost dollars. Sorry,
John, but I haven't lost one MICROGRAM of gold lately, despite
the interesting fluctuations of bogus paper during the past
two weeks. : )

9.2%. And Greenspan can't figure out why the NYSE is exploding?
They printed TONS of money from 91-94, and now it's finally
arrived, and NOBODY can figure it out?

The real question, will they replay 91-94 again, and create an
even greater bubble, to be poppped in 2003? Gad, I'm not sure
various governments are even going to survive the current bubble.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:39
RJ History Smchistory! Ever read Orwell?>(History Smchistory! Ever read Orwell?):
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:34
Joe37 to Millhouse>(to Millhouse):

Millhouse: Is this what is known as monetizing the debt?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:32
RJ Goldbug Omega Zenith>(Goldbug Omega Zenith):
I would love to, and may someday. Meanwhile, like all here, gold dust runs through my veins.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:32

I have to laugh, because not only am I being cast as the supreme villian at
this site, but I am also being called anti-gold. I have gone out of my way
at least five times over the past three months to specifically state I am not
anti-gold but am anti bad advice.
Aurophile is speaking in absolutes ( note I am called Idiot, which is okay.
It's only rude if I call someone else Idiot ) . He acts like I drove the six best contributors from this site. Not only is it completely false ( Oldman, for example,
left the site after the constant sparkling success of his trades was challenged.
I had nothing to do with this childish tantrum ) , but it doesn't take into account
all the people who have become disenchanted and left this site because of
his poor track record over the past year. Shall we count all of the posts from
people who have lost money and are giving up and ask that Aurophile
be removed from the site?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:26
Who Cares?>(

Millhouse - interesting money supply numbers. I'd been wondering
why the Federal Debt clock stopped at $5.35T two months ago.

Considering that Sam was running $25B / month deficit, I can easily
see where it went it now. : )

What the hell. It may finally have dawned on somebody that their
economic numbers are a joke. : ) Holy moly.

RJ needs to spend more time reading history, and less watching
Bogart. : )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:26
Goldbug Omega-1 @Ingot>(@Ingot):
RJ: Schippi is right, spend your spare time writing a novel and persevere until it sells. You are wasting your talent on gold and silver?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:25

Scotty - This sounds like a great bet, only I would change two things:
1. It's not enough that I get the dollar figure correct. I must be correct
out to two decimal places, and predict where it will be at 20, 10, and
5 minutes before the close.
2. Since you obviously spent a lot of time saying what I must do
while avoiding any prediction of your own, why don't you get a print-
out of your suggested bet and fold it origami-like into the shape of
an anus.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:25
Millhouse: Recently, it was widely reported that the US had retired some 65 Bil of debt. Is there any connection with the money supply numbers and said debt retirement? It would be shocking, if true.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:19
Goldbug23 @Armageddon>(@Armageddon):
Milhouse and Steve - Perth: Re China and Taiwan - Good points. However, Milhous, Hitler got several pieces of property without fighting until he moved on Poland ( and even here he did not think the English and French would move ) . China has gotten Tibet and HK without conflict and Taiwan may be next on their list. I think China is taking the place in the world now that Germany had in the 30's. And our percent of GDP spent on defense is lower than it was in the late 30's. What has all this got to do with gold? Current events have a strong baring on the price of gold.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:18
RJ Millhouse>(Millhouse):
Oh yeah, I gotta' take a leak...........

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:17
RJ Millhouse>(Millhouse):
Still own some of my more expensive silver. The same clients made $ on gold shorts and long silver at 4.16 - closed at 4.31. I could take the loss on the 4.50 - 4.60 silver right now and still be ahead, not much, but ahead. I will hold the silver for awhile and lay in new gold shorts against it with my new found wealth. I do like your math though, were you ever a broker?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 03:09
Milhouse @RJ is back>(@RJ is back):

RJ - loved your 02:29 post. I have but one question : I have noticed that much of your inspired prose mentions, or even centres around, urine. Any explanation ?

BTW, based on the results of your silver play I don't think you need to worry about your gold shorts. Even though you started buying silver in the 4.50's, and kept buying all the way down, you still managed to report a profit on this trade in an earlier post. I can therefore only assume that you have invested in the Bob Rubin book on accounting entitled Accounting, the Untold Story ( or how to spend 10 times more than you earn and still report a reducing deficit ) . Using the theories expounded in this masterpiece you should be able to close out all your shorts when gold hits $500 and still show a handsome profit. ( :- ) )

Regards, Milhouse

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 02:55
Don't know who just posted the RJ...Down and out story,
but with literary talent like that, your wasting yor time in
a Gold room, just write a novel.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 02:49
Milhouse Money Supply>(Money Supply):

The latest figures show that total US money supply ( M3 ) has increased at an annualised rate of 9.2% so far in 1997. 4 weeks ago the annualised rate of increase was 7.4%. Over 70 billion US dollars have been added to the money supply during the last month. Draw your own conclusions !

Regards, Milhouse

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 02:29
RJ !!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!):
This may be my last post as I’ll probably need to hock the computer to raise some quick cash. Found out today that my wild speculating has finally come home to roost and, as Orange County before me, I have lost it all. Serves me right, slinging trades around like dollar chips at a cheap casino, cocksure arbitrages over early morning cappuccino, snorting at all I read in the WSJ because I knew it all two days earlier, and what the hell do those guys know about the real world markets anyway?

Yes, life comes with a price and the tag is a frightening read when your wallet is suddenly gone and your not sure just who the pickpocket is, but that bastard at the next table, grinning and chatting without a care, looks a little bit too smug to be paying for all that coffee and four dollar croissants with his own money.

There is only one way to handle this sort of sociopathic slime. I waited until the coffee went to work on his kidneys and then I followed him into the men’s room. I made believe that I was tying my shoe, but instead slipped of one of my Johnson Murphy crocodile penny loafers, the last I may ever own, and bashed him on the back of the head as he stood at the urinal. A quick pat down failed to produce my missing wallet, when I suddenly realized my wallet wasn’t gone at all, just my life’s work in an orgy gold shorts and unrestrained fast trades. This was no pickpocket, just a hapless innocent, caught in the crossfire of a beaten broker on a loosing binge and simple circumstance of fate.

I thought, to hell with it, its not my fault the market moved against me. All those years, my close friend and trusted partner. I never saw it coming, when it turned on me like a junkyard Doberman when its got you up against the chain link fence and is just waiting for you to try to climb so it can take a five pound hunk of flesh and Levi’s from you fleeing ass. These markets blow crueler than any hurricane wind and before you know it, your just another piece of debris, like the plywood, trees, and mobile homes tossed about when one of those unpredictable Atlantic storms rips through the panhandle, gathers strength over the warmer waters, and comes roaring in from the Gulf as it hits one of these small burgs that hasn’t seen a storm with a name since eighteen-ought-six.

I felt as battered and abandoned as I watched the horrific turnaround in gold this week. Before I knew what was happening, I was living a nightmare. Gold, heretofore so pathetic and weak, stopped it grim slide and, with a whipsaw turnaround, blitzkrieged through all resistance, leaving me holding a mountain of uncovered shorts. It wasn’t long before the hordes began gathering outside. All those, who sent me Christmas cards and smoked Alaskan salmon when profits where riding high, where now milling about the parking lot outside my office. I could hear the start of a menacing chant rising from the asphalt as the throngs began breaking down doors and taking hostages. I always suspected it would end like this, so I used the market meltdown security exit - a kind of bat pole from the top floor trading offices to a subterranean passage leading to a nearby mini mall of bagel and coffee shops.

It was here I found myself, kneeling over a dazed and battered pickpocket writhing in a puddle of his own urine. To hell with them all, I thought as I grabbed his wallet and Rolex and started rifling through his pockets for more loot. In his inside suit pocket, I found a fat envelope with unintelligible letters written in bold red ink across the front. I couldn’t make out the writing, but the lettering looked almost English, but with some of the letters written backwards like the first spellings of a preschooler. With a start, I realized these were Cyrillic characters. I put the envelope aside and began to search through his wallet. Beneath his California driver license was another laminated card bearing the same face as the barely conscious man at my feet. The writing was defiantly Russian and my blood grew cold as I read the words that I thought died with the cold war: Komitet Gosudarstvennoî Bezopasnosti, This bastard was KGB!

The form at my feet began to stir but I soon stilled all movement with a vicious kick to the back of his neck and a couple at the base of his spine for good measure. That’ll teach the son of a bitch to pick my pocket! Who do these Russians think they are? Don’t they know its over and we won? I savagely ripped open the fat envelope and dozens of hundred dollar bills fell over the huddled mass at my feet. I gathered up the cash and noticed what looked like a map on a small white piece of paper hidden amongst the bills.

I moved closer to the light and found, to my surprise, the words on the paper were in English! It was a map, with directions to a midnight meeting, where apparently there would be an exchange of cash and, I couldn’t believe my eyes, platinum bars, for something called a Karburator. The note detailed the location of several thousand ounces of platinum that was supposed to be picked up just prior to the clandestine exchange.

I laughed with spiteful glee as I stuffed the cash in my pockets. I checked the time on the Russian bastard’s Rolex and saw I would have plenty of time to rent a truck to transport the platinum before this looser on the floor came to and either fled or showed up to the meeting with limp excuses of bathroom skullduggery. I’ll have to rent a storage garage to keep the bars of metal in temporarily, better get several, spread the stuff around. It wouldn’t do to open the storage door and find my platinum was gone before I could put my plan into action. It might take me a week or two to convert the bars into tradable cash, not all of it, but enough to start laying in new gold shorts. Let It keep going up, I’ve got enough resources now to keep putting in shorts even if gold hit $750 - $800. Its got to turn around sooner or later. The big bear will claw out the poor bull’s eyes leaving it to stumble blindly into an open and ravenous pit. I smiled happily as I left the coffee shop, and began to whistle a little ditty as I hailed a cab. RJ is Back!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 02:16
Milhouse @China>(@China):

I have noticed a good deal of discussion of late regarding whether or not China has the military capability to take Taiwan and what strategies they may use to divert the attention of the US in order to accomplish this goal. IMO, there is absolutely no way that China will ever mount an open military assault against Taiwan. Those who have some knowledge of the art of strategy as practised by the Chinese and as encapsulated in the writings of Sun Tzu would understand why, but in summary :

1. Those who are skilled in strategy do not achieve victory through open conflict. Those who are truly skilled in strategy position themselves such that their eventual victory is perceived by their opponent to be inevitable, thus resulting in the capitulation of their opponent without the need for battle.

2. A victory which results in the destruction of the opponents resources is achieved by a leader who is not skilled in strategy. A skillful strategist will achieve victory in such a way as to preserve the opponent's resources. These resources can then be used to increase one's own strength.

When Taiwan is eventually merged back into China it will be a peaceful re-union which will be a Chinese victory gained through stealth and deception, not military conflict.

Regards, Milhouse

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 02:09
Bill Buckler>(
Nailz ( Jul 20 00:14 ) Thank you for that. I especially liked the comments from people buying Gold who said they hadn't done so for 20 years. From my own research and many e-mails I think the definite conclusion is that physical Gold demand has risen strongly just about everywhere over the past two weeks.

That's the big sleeper in the whole situation. I have just sent the latest issue of The Privateer out to subscribers
and that phenomenon is one of the things I stress. Seems like the hedge funds have short sold Gold to the point where the ordinary folk see it as a bargain. This is the monster that the Central Banks did **not** want to create!

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 01:08
Bart: Muy bien Amigo. Don't overlook the need for the boss to have an overide on the squelch business. The day may soon arrive when you will find it amusing to break into all threads and announce that gold has just bounced USD 100. ..... On another note related to charts. Many are one post throw aways and bear no future utility. Since you have gathered around you a politically sensitive group of individuals whose first concern is for the environment; it would be nice to somehow overwrite old files and recycle old file names. As an alternate, perhaps these uploads could be stored to an index on your server and recalled by index number. ..... I dunno. It's late and there is no one to talk to.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 00:56
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
All: INAL, but I think the question of free speech only comes up when the govt officially gets involved and takes steps to discourage someone from expressing his or her views. If folks here at Kitco shout someone down, they are not violating his right to free speech, but are merely exercising their own. Likewise, if Bart bans someone from Kitco, he hasn't violated their right to free speech -- unless he's a lawmaker and also has them hauled off to jail for it. Certainly, putting in a squelch button is no more a violation than a killfile in a newsreader. As Mike Sheller said, it's Bart's house, and he can do what he wants. So I'm all for a squelch button -- if it can be made to work.

In any event, we should all take comfort from the fact that the chief proponent amongst the anti-gold crowd here feels it necessary to resort to namecalling and other schoolyard taunts and tactics. IMO, nothing could more clearly reveal the bankruptcy of the follow-the-leader approach to investing.

Schippi: Very wise, your Mom. The view that a few decades of the late 20th Century have decisively and for all time redefined the role of gold in the world to be that of a trinket commodity seems to me to be pre-Copernican in the extreme. It says that what is happening here and now is the center of the economic universe. I think that history, to these folks, must be what happened last week on Seinfeld. Oh well, when it comes to betting on a paradigm shift that dismisses 7,000 years of history, I know where my money will be.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 00:50
Thanks for the quick response, Ted and vronsky. Maybe you could help me with something else. I don't understand why Japan and others have been so eager to buy US Bonds. If they are trying to prop up the dollar for the benefit of their exporters then why would Hashimoto threaten to sell US Treasuries? As I see it, dumping securites would kill the US economy and hurt their exports. Can anyone clarify? Thanks again.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 00:38
Bart Kitner (Kitco)>(
To Roebear & Steve: The only threads you’ll find at this site will be in the Kitco T-shirts that we’ll have to start selling if gold keeps heading south! This format allows easy off-line reading, printing, and on-screen searching and so we’re gonna stick with it.

You can upload even a hundred page document to our FTP server and make it accessible on the group the same way Earl, bb fisher, panda, and others have been doing it with their charts.

To Mike: There hasn’t been any editorial control exercised here in the past and there won’t be in the future. We’ll be providing the tools to permit everyone individually to decide whose comments they want to suppress from their own monitors. A squelch button will also allow you to focus on only the posts that you may find interesting or entertaining by blocking all but a selected group of contributors. In essence it may create a threaded environment where a few hundred people are carrying on a few dozen conversations.

For the record.... nobody was ever banned from this group. Just one guy was required to post using his real name and email address. He elected not to.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 00:22
Ted: Do you think our two day rally will continue next week.... ........ Only if I choose not to add long positions.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 00:21
Steve - Perth>(
Re: China invading Taiwan. Saw a brilliant inside media spin job on ABC TV last night showing how Governor Chris Patten got the Hong Kong Legislative Council ( Legco ) to vote for his legislation on democracy during 94-95. He was really under the hammer. What was fascinating was that several major Chinese players were actively pressuring Legco members to vote against the British proposal. Also, Sir Willie Purvis of HKSB called from PEKING to also pressurise Legco members to vote against Patten also. VERY interesting indeed! What got me curious is WHY are they showing us this really inside view, including all of Patten's secret concerns, on VIDEO, including all the political tactics they used & language etc, to us mass audience. This is normally NEVER shown. Are the spin doctors trying to make Patten look good, in a lead up for him to take over the UK Conservative Party? Or just to show that the UK Sinologists were compliant with the Chinese wishes for Hong Kong? ( Those bureaucrats got plenty of interviews, including the previous Governor of Hong Kong ) Also showed Margaret Thatcher's resistance, but eventual cave in.

What was very revealing was that China viewed Hong Kong AND TAIWAN coming back to them at THE SAME TIME. Maybe China WILL do a deal with N. Korea, to keep the Yanks busy with Korea, while they go for Taiwan one dark night. Have you been noticing the recent postings how China has been testing their long range missiles, that a mobile on Trucks. Theoretically able to even hit California. WHY are we getting all this information through all of a sudden? You have almost forgotten that China was firing a few test missiles near Taiwan only a few months ago!! China will still sell us manufactured goods at a cheaper rate, when they take over Taiwan. US would sell their Grandmother if they had to.

Good post recently re: US Marines moving into Darwin. Yep, 3 hours from the hot spot. There has not been boo said about that issue in our Aussie press. Last week the northern suburbs of Perth were rocked with Sonic Booms from UK jets doing joint naval exercises off West Australian coast line. First time I can remember in years UK military around here. Normally just Yank Aircraft carriers coming in to get serviced. I did hear there are three ships in Fremantle/Garden Island at the moment. The story was that they were around in case of any trouble developing over Hong Kong handover, now gone. Watch this space....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 00:19
Valiantly attempting to pull it's drawers up, we have the weekly XAU. Intuitively obvious is the need to break 100 or resume its dismal slide to .... wherever. I suppose it could break the downtrend by default and waffle sideways for several weeks. But that could hardly be construed as compelling action.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 00:17
TED @bedtimeforbonzo>(@bedtimeforbonzo):
Hi Nailz....Goodnight's gettin late in Atlantic Canada ( 1:17 )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 00:14
ALL and BILL BUCKLER...........There is a tremendous influx of demand for the physicals as demonstrated by state coin show.....Just back from state show and can attest to a tremendous increase in demand for physicals...Some people said they had not bought for 20 years....Back out in force this weekend....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 00:12
TED @earl>(@earl):
Hi Earl!...It's high tide but there's still a little ocean smell out there...Do you think our two day rally will continue next week....10.90 in two days was a nice jump....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 00:07
Ted: Them's not roses you smell. Them's the tide flats. ( :- ) )

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 00:07
nailz 20 YEARS AGO>(20 YEARS AGO):
ALL.....20 years ago today silver closed at US$4.62...With gold @ US$146.00.........

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 00:06
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Crstal=CRYSTAL in Cape Breton....

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 00:06
Steve - Perth>(
I vote with Mike Sheller. Aurophile, do you want Tortfeasor to stop posting jokes? I'm sure that would not be the case. Hepcat has been a bit quiter for past 24 hours. Remember, NO Threads.

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 00:05
For the silverbugs this evening we have a small delight ( not ) in the monthly. I'm wondering how this chart could stir the imagination any more than GC over the past year or more. Having broken through 450 it looks to be headed for at least 405 or possibly ( gasp! ) the '93 low at 360. If the '93 low was good for GC, why not SI?

Date: Sun Jul 20 1997 00:03
TED @mikesheller>(@mikesheller):
Mike: I can see the full moon and Jupiter from right at my computer seat and Jupiter IS really bright as it's crstal clear out....Am smellin the roses as life is too short....

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 23:57
Apparently all that heavy lifting, to get GC up a measly 10 bucks on Thurs and Fri, has exhausted the ship's company. As a filler for Sat evening, here is an overlay of ABX and NEM in 30 min bars. Thought maybe someone would be interested in how their intraday action compared, since one is hedged and the other not. Notice that the last hour and a half was a little choppy. Monday may be a contiuation of same. NEM is in blue and commands the RH scale.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 23:54
Mike Sheller Looking up>(Looking up):
TED, ALL: If the sky is clear where you are, look to the left of the full moon and you'll see Jupiter at 19 Aquarius ( as in the dawning of the Age of... ) . It's the brightest object out there, next to the Moon. ( literally NEXT to the Moon ) .Like taking time to smell the roses...

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 23:51
TED @panda>(@panda):
Panda: I'll loan ya the five.....

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 23:41
panda @zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz):
Time to consult the charts on the backside of my eyelids. Goodnight all..

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 23:39
Mike Sheller: Kewl, Mike! We be on same frequency.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 23:38
panda @>(@):
TED -- Regarding the 19:40
What I meant, in jest, was, if I bought any more of their stock ( I wish ) I would be required to file with the S.E.C. Seriously, I don't have the S.E.C. problem. I wish I did though!
4.9% of $8.75 X 50+million shares comes out to about $5 more than I have. :- ) )

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 23:38
vronsky GOLD STOCKS IN 1929 AFTERMATH (ALSO 1973-1974)>(GOLD STOCKS IN 1929 AFTERMATH (ALSO 1973-1974)):
KJB: Here is a detailed account of what to expect in a Stock Market Crash - if history is testament, gold stocks should do well - see Gold Stocks & the Great Crash of 1929 - Revisited :

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 23:34
TED @kjb>(@kjb):
KJB:HM soared after 29 crash.....and will do so again if we crash again..
Ditto:ABX,NEM,PDG,ect.ect....Better than MF'S imho....

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 23:28
TED @mikesheller>(@mikesheller):
Hi Mike....I thought the 20th was THE full moon....granted it is now the 20th in our Atlantic time....WE are ahead of you New Yorkers...The weather is FINALLY great here with highs 75-80,lots of sun, and a gentle sea breeze usually blowin....

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 23:28
To All: I have found your comments very interesting. Does anyone know how gold stocks did after the crashes of '29 and '87? Any guess on how
they might fare in the coming crash? Which will do better, company stock or mutual fund?

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 23:17
Mike Sheller Fully>(Fully):
TED: It's all the way full as we speak. ( The Moon, that is ) .

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 23:15
Mike Sheller concerning the mange>(concerning the mange):
SPEED: I'll buy the beer! AUROPHILE: I hear you, really I do. I share your respect for the essential sanctity of this forum. I did also trust in Bart's wisdom to know when to pull the plug. Total excommunication at his command would not bother me in the slightest. It is HIS house, and I am equally sentimental about Private Property as I am Free Speech.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 23:05
TED @Panda>(@Panda):
Panda ( 19:40 ) Whaaaaaaaaaaaaat?....What a spectacular evening....

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 23:03
TED @stokes>(@stokes):
Stokes ( 21:20 ) Yes,my neck of the woods is quite nice but I've only been here for 5+ from NYC area....The near full moon is glistening on a calm ocean...BEAUTIFUL!

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 22:58
TED @mikesheller>(@mikesheller):
Mike Sheller ( 20:13 ) Brilliantly said!...and I am interested....

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 22:27
Donald @Home>(@Home):
China issues new rules on currency.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 22:25
Jack Hong Kong>(Hong Kong):

Honk Kong is reputed to have in excess of $100 billion in various currency reserves. It seems to me that China can do what it pleases with this windfall, if she so desires. While there may be pressures exerted to keep China from using these reserves for her own account; who can actually stop her? World Opinion?
If a Yen block comes into frutation, will China join.
Is their a possibility of a Russo/China/India block?
In my opinion; -aside from her present problems- Russia is to be taken very, very seriously.
Why can she not turn quickly in the economic sense?

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 22:00
Donald @Home>(@Home):
GENE, CHEROKEE: ( Pendulum ) Mark Twain said: History does not always repeat itself but it rhymes ( or something close to that )

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 21:59
Who Cares?>(

Heck, I sure don't mind the postings from Hep Cat.

I think it's amazingly funny that he thinks everyone
here is interesting in buying and selling gold over
a short-term horizon.

I have zero interest in *selling*, regardless of price. : )

I also think it's interesting to see the assumption that
gold is a commodity, subject only to price of production.

Can I also assume, John, that you consider U.S. dollars
to be a commodity, subject only to the price of
production, i.e. five or six cents? : )

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 21:53
Front To Auroelf:>(To Auroelf:):

Auroelf: I use the same program for my Toronto and Vancouver stocks. For Toronto EN it would be T.EN for Vancouver it's V.STS for Montreal it's M.XXX you get the idea. Great stuff eh!


Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 21:50
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SCOTTY: Speed is right, they are selling bonds into the US market. I would classify them as un-rated junk bonds. Barron's carried a story last week about all the speculation in that market. The reference to U.S. Treasury bonds is misleading. I don't think the writer understood how it works. Today Barron's had a story about the combined capitalization of Intel and Microsoft, after the Friday rout, being greater than the GDP of India.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 21:47
Scotty time for Hepcat to put up>(time for Hepcat to put up):
Mr. Hepcat: I've read with interest, bemusement, and occasionally some downright rile of your comments of the last week. Your underwriting themes seem to be two-fold:

1. Belittlement and insults. Examples: You referred to Earl as Earp in a very condescending way. You openly mocked the fact that Ted retired at 42. Both remarks were rude and uncalled for. There are many more, but I chose not to use up the bandwidth citing further examples. I am surprised that you cannot carry on a discussion without resorting to insults and demeaning comments - as I have noted that some of your posts are very well thought out, and even brilliant on occasion.

2. You seem to repeat a theme centered around the phrase put up or shut up. OK, here's the deal - I'm putting up. Right now. Right here. I hereby challenge your claim to gold being at $325.00 on 29 July. The exact wager is open to your discretion. However, I offer the following recommendation: we both deposit into a neutral, but acceptable, third party escrow account the sum of 10,000 US Dollars. The escrow agent will be charged with a very simple tasking. He/She/It will release the money to you if the gold price on 29 July 1997 is US$325.00. If the price is not equal to that amount, they will release the money to me. The loser will pay the escrow fees which will be assured by a 2,000 US Dollar deposit made by both parties in addition to the original wager. Also, I recommend we use the PM London Gold Fix on that date. Of course, you may change this to any of the world's recognized closing gold fix you chose on the date of 29 July 1997. One last requirement: the whole transaction will be tracked and followed here on the Kitco site. Of course, certain privacy information about fund transfers, funding source ( s ) , escrow agents, escrow accounts, etc, will be protected by both parties. If either party violates these privacy considerations, then they will forfeit the wager regardless of the final gold closing.

If this wager is unacceptable in any regard, please post a wager ( or counter offer, if you will ) that will be acceptable to you. Baring any unethical or illegal conditions, I will likely be inclined to accept.

What say you, kind sir?

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 21:44
Miro @Fidelity Fund Charts>(@Fidelity Fund Charts):
Schippi: play it for me one more time, I like the way it looks
( Fidelity charts that is ;- ) )
Some time ago you asked pray for me and I did - though for very
selfish reason. I have my money in both Fidelity funds to even it out.
Select American Gold doesn’t have any holdings in foreign companies while
Precious Metals fund does. I have full intention to hold it through the
end of this century ( and Y2K mess )

My mom used to say you are so pigheaded but eventually you get what
you want ;- )

123456789abcd … : I hope you won’t go broke - it would make two of us ;- )

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 21:29
Mike Sheller: I understand and respect your opinion on free speech but I must add that not everyone feels that it is worth his time to post here when the Idiot may appear at any time. I know of at least six excellent and worthy posters who preceded you here at Kitco who simply left for more civilized quarters. This is a loss to the internet gold community which is not counterbalanced by a sentimental attachment to free speech. Just as shouting fire in a safe theatre is antithetical to the concept of free speech so is shouting f*** y** on a civilized forum. And that in essence is what people like the Idiot have done. I support Bart Kitner's efforts to reclaim this forum for rational discourse.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 21:25
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
Cherokee, I found your statement about pendelums interesting. i agree. Human nature has not changed and what we have seen before we will see again. Herd mentality cannot be denied.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 21:23
Mad Russian Ve vould better hav Czar back>(Ve vould better hav Czar back):

Ve lose Big Time ven Stalin shut us up.
Worse dan wen he rob our gold an buy bombs wit.
He vorst dan fractional reserve banking who use usery to rob you and buy bombs vit.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 21:23
stokes contrary@indicator>(contrary@indicator):
Got a haircut last weekend and my barber who is famaliar with, but does not own any gold stocks cautioned me against buying too many gold stocks. We must be pretty near the bottom now.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 21:20
stokes Cape@Breton.Island>(Cape@Breton.Island):
Got a chance to visit Cape Breton Island over the July 4th holiday. Played some golf at the Highlands course. It was a first time visit for me and I was really impressed with your neck of the woods. Sure beats New Jersey.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 21:04
auroelf IT>(IT):
Jack, Byron: Thanks for the suggestions. Still trying all of them and others.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 21:03
Mike Sheller @20:13: I heartily endorse and second your comments regarding censorship, and such. In a word: NO! Emphatically.

The process of communication and the flow of ideas should not be constrained just because it loses its bearings occasionally. The only limits should be those imposed by 'good taste' and Bart has shown himself to be a reasonable arbiter of those limits.

Those who find themselves at odds with others have many options and always one more than the military.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 20:59
Scotty: The Indians are selling, not buying.

Mike Sheller: Your magnanimity is an example to us all. While I agree with you in theory, my dark side argues for at least an empty beer bottle heaved in his direction. I go now to contemplate my fallen nature. I will vote with you to keep the forum open.

Has anybody heard from Steve Puetz?

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 20:49
Byron @ Lights Out:>(@ Lights Out:):
Library closing shortly. Heading to Angle Island tomorrow for the 22nd yearly gathering of friends from the early 70's in San Francisco. Enjoy the remainder of the weeked. Looking for fireworks next week ( as always )

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 20:46
Jack Try these>(Try these):
Some variation of these should help.
tse:symbol for Toronto, mse or me:symbol for Montreal and vse:symbol for Vancouver.
For YAHOO try; for Toronto, for Montreal and I think symbol.vo for Vancouver.
Sometimes Symbol-tc,-mc and -vc works; this is for USAtoday.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 20:41
Byron @ To The Rescue:>(@ To The Rescue:):
Auroelf: For DBC quote I use for example abx-tc or $gl-tc ( for the gold and silver index ) ...For Yahoo quotes I use ^tgl ( for the gold and silver index ) and for Toronto Stocks.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 20:37
Scotty India buying US debt?>(India buying US debt?):
Uh-oh. India wants to jump into the US Bond market. I don't have much of a background in bonds and such. But this seems like a huge departure from Indian fiscal policy. Can anyone comment on this? Is it a big deal?

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 20:37
Byron @ The Waterline:>(@ The Waterline:):
Yes Schippi. It's that type of signal which helps keep my head above water.: )

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 20:34
Scotty Kyat panic!>(Kyat panic!):
I can't believe I missed this one! On 15 July, the Kyat went from 250 to 300 per dollar! That's a huge devaluation! This article talks about the panic ( a real one, not perceived ) and refers briefly to gold....

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 20:32
Byron... What is really impressive about the chart you posted at:
is the really CLEAR signal given by the MACD chart.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 20:20
auroelf IT new version>(IT new version):
Anyone using Internet Trader from Papyrus: The new version, which I just downloaded, indicates that I can now get Canadian quotes. How do I prefix or suffix the symbol for Toronto quotes? These do not work for Euro-Nevada: EN, EN.T, EN.TNT, T.EN, and TNT.EN. What works?

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 20:13
Mike Sheller as if anyone is interested>(as if anyone is interested):
While it is not my policy to respond in any way to those whose apellations and actions even remotely resemble the cogent feline of ill repute, I am against censorship at Kitco, except for the most egregious and obvious ill behavior. In such a case, as has happened before, the poster should be banned pure and simple. And the judgement for such a fate should reside with Kitco management. They know what they are doing. Cherokee, you know I love you, grand warrior, and Bart, I adore you, but I hesitate to endorse any change whatsoever in this magnificent forum's format. I think we can police ourselves, and either ignore or excoriate those who violate our collective sensibilities with obnoxious behavior. As for those who defend obnoxiousness by proclaiming it is justified by being right, let me say that everyone on this forum, like a stopped clock, will be right at one time or another. And we will all be wrong as well. As long as we have the temerity and the chutzpah to voice opinions and make predictions, we will all be right and infinitum. Over time, we will each gravitate to those whose views are either most enlightening, or most entertaining. In the end, HOW those views are expressed will determine the civility of this forum, and the value of the company we all share with each other. As for those who are exceedingly concerned with how opinions affect decisions to invest hard earned bucks, I say lighten up. Maybe you should be out there helping Mother Teresa.This is only a gold forum, not brain surgery or war. Nobody lectures amnyone here about drinking, smoking, or cheating on your income tax. So if you can't play the game without whining, don't play the game at all. I vote NO CHANGE.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 19:59
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):
WW: If you run into Glenn, say hello to him from us here at Kitco.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 19:40
panda @>(@):
TED -- At some point, if you buy enough stock in a company, you have to file with the S.E.C. :- ) )

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 19:35
Byron @Technicals>(@Technicals):
Looking at the daily charts for several of the gold stocks shows all but Homestake still sitting just below the 50 moving average. At this time and point, a move above the 50 day moving average for these shares should be significant. This includes the XAU and HUI, both below the 50 MA line..... The following URL which is available in the WEB Resource Links above has a Weekly Futures Gold chart which goes back several years. Looking at the stochastics below the bar chart shows that the red line has moved over the blue. Everytime this has accurred, eith in the upside or the downside, the price behavior of gold has lasted more than one week. In otherwords we had a significant momentumn change. Just another piece of the puzzle, but it does offer hope for next week..... But then Deaner said hope can kill you. ( or something along that line ) . :- ) ....

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 19:35
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day comparison and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

What is better than Gold?
My mom was visiting, I commented, that I went long on Gold
just before the July 4'th holiday and got Smashed.
Don't worry about it, no one can predict the future.
I related that I was now scaling UP, with Big Chips and
that it was very difficult as the word on the street, was
that after 5,000 years it was all over for Gold.
Don't worry about it, it will come back, it always does.
What better than Gold? ...... My MOM.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 19:14
Donald: Sounds just like 1982-86 which i believe to have been the last trough of the Kondratieff wave. ( 1974 as orthodox peak, 1980 as end of the plateau. ) I too have several of Donald Hoppe's old letters. He was excellent.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 19:05
LSteve @home>(@home):
The Kansas City Star had a big write up on gold today in the business section. It was written by a local staff writer. The story was spun slightly bullish for gold. But the interesting part was that they interviewed some local coin shop owners who said they were having trouble keeping up with the physical demand. Seems these low prices have brought out the bargain hunters. The article also talked about people being nervous about the stock market. Hmmmm.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 18:55
Donald @Home>(@Home):
All: Reading for a quiet Saturday afternoon. From the February, 1988, edition of Kondratieff Wave Analyst, Donald J. Hoppe

Conditions that Precede a Long Wave Depression

1. Massive overbuilding in the capital goods sectors.
2. An unprecedented increase in debts at all levels, public, corporate and individuals.
3. Severe problems in international debt.
4. An era of extremely reckless speculation followed by a stock market crash-the worst crash in 50 years
5. A boom and bust in agricultural commodities and farm land, resulting in great distress in the agricultural sector, with many failures and foreclosures.
6. Troubles in the banking system, with a rising curve of bank failures, begining several years before the stock market crash.
7. A sharp rise in protectionist sentiment caused by increasing foreign competition and poor trade figures.
8. Producers of raw materials, oil, minerals and agricultural products, caught in a squeeze between high production costs and low prices, aggravted by huge surpluses and excess productive capacity. Cartels ( OPEC ) and quota agreements prevalent in efforts to hold down production and hold up prices ( they always fail in the end ) .
9 Retail stores jammed with merchandise, luxury items in heavy oversupply, price cutting and discounting rampant.
10. Huge rise in real estate prices during prior decade. Massive speculative building boom. Real estate market glutted with commercial and office properties.
11. Great increase in the number of people employed in the financial sector, stock brokers, bond salesmen, investment advisors, financial planners, fund managers, in-house traders, security analysts etc.
12 Financial mania and speculative boom of prior decade not limited to one or two countries but worldwide.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 18:42
WW @NE>(@NE):
Query: When are the times gold is the weakest and financials are normally strong. ( no I am not looking for the ans always from some smart guy ) . FRIDAYS AND WHENEVER THE FED IS ABOUT TO ACT IN ANY WAY. Gold was up friday/ if it goes up through the Greenspan pre post and commensurate testimony then something has changed. Maybe they Short covered on Thurs and Fri, so they can have A GOLD KILL FOR CONFIDENCE in recognition of Greenspan's excellence and his wise words given to Congress. If gold is strong through this then the bull may be coming. There is a 50/50 chance of going below 320 by friday because of the need for the confidence effect. This is if history is any guide. Headin for the Big Apple on Monday look forward to y'alls comments on tuesday. Plan to visit Nymex at lunch I promise to spread a Soros type rumor so go long in the AM. Luck to y'all.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 17:54
KGB @In Hiding>(@In Hiding):
RJ and many PMG kustomers broke ven MIG krash in Urals. Platinum price go up. Den ve vait two veeks, start sirch party, find platinum in Urals. Price go down, ve mak more. How you like? KGB sharp like fox!

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 17:46
123456789abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz @nowhere but here>(@nowhere but here):
It should come as no surprise that the two worst performing Fidelity sector funds for last months, 3 months , and 12 months were the two gold funds, FSAGX and FDPMX. But , as we all know the reverse law of gravity says what goes down must go up. They will be the best performing over the course of the next year, IMHO ( or I'll be a lot more broke than I already am )

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 17:41
Brighton Beach Plymouth and Lend Lease Dodge Truk KGB sharp>(KGB sharp):

How KGB know RJ broke His Orange Kounty vas broke in 1994, but ve all know dat. Ve gif him Karburator free, ven he lease, Lend Lease Truc.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 17:27
KGB @In Hiding>(@In Hiding):
Horosho. Is deal. How RJ pay karburator ven is broke?

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 17:11
Brighton Beach Plymouth and Lend Lease Dodge Truk Ve haf better deal>(Ve haf better deal):

Ve fly MIG vit Platinum Bars and land in Siberia. Ve call Investia an zay MIG crash in Urals; den ve zell Karburator to RJ.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 16:52
Donald @Home>(@Home):
CAPNKEV: I found some interesting reference material about Greenspan testimony. On February 23, 1988, Alan testified that he was concerned by vast amounts of U.S. Dollars and dollar securities held by foreigners. At the same session he also said that the huge overhang of foreign held dollars was forcing ( us ) to maintain a position of restraint and circumspection. That was nearly 10 years ago. The situation is far worse today. Let's see if it gets mentioned.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 16:37
Bob @...RJ>(@...RJ):
I appreciates your investment balls ( eggs ? ) and hope you are wrong but don't get too squeezed as I appreciate your comments - as I am sure may others do too.

Cheers and bad luck ;- )

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 16:35
KGB @In Hiding>(@In Hiding):
You haf kapitalist kompany vat gif gud service. You vant svap platimum ingot for MIG? Ve need MIG parts too.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 16:30
Donald @Home>(@Home):
ROB: You can get bankruptcy stats at back to 1980. Older stuff via e.mail from American Bankruptcy Institute. Good Luck. Let us know what you find.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 16:30
Bob @....Apple vs MSFT in the personal os market of 2000>(@....Apple vs MSFT in the personal os market of 2000):
LAN MAN: I agree with you. However, things don't always go up and people don't always buy the same brands forever. NT is the corporate standard. I know, I sell NT and I use NT on my desktop. The problem with the Mac os never was the quality of its feature set, as you know. The problem was that it did not work with INTEL architected PCs. Rhapsody will operate on all systems.

More important are the web objects that Apple has incorporated in their os offerings. Java and the Internet spell doom for Bill Gates as he knows he no longer can steal the software ( Java ) or the momentum. He is forced to accept the paradigmn late in the game by ramping up his workforce to spread MS's newfound marketing faith in the Internet and secure objects. You know the problem with VBX objects ? They are insecure over the Internet....ask Cisco.

Java is the fastest growing programming language ever. It is destined to replace C++ just as C++ overtook C and C overtook assembly ( COBOL legacy is another story ) . Bill doesn't own Java. His enemys own Java.

The problem with MS is that it can not grow as fast as in the past without Java and secure Internet sodtware suite. It is an intersting dilema and one that is further complicated by the Rhapsody architecture that will run on Power PC and Intel boxes and is a robust host interpreter for Java. Keep in mind also that NT is no longer supported on PPC chips and 'less' supported on Alpha ( probably the fastest machine running the NT os ) than on INTEL.

The WINTEL alliance will breakdown. Will MS bite the dust ? Probably not. Will it experience lower growth potential due to a movement back to NC's ( smarter dumb terminals ) and run-any-where-anytime web objects
powered by secure Java programs and applets ? Definitely.

What has this got to do with gold prices ? Lots. We live in a zero-sum investment game. Either invest in MSFT or something else - like some gold....afterall MSFT is worth more than all the gold that exists today above ground ... well, if not now very soon I think !? may continue private disscussion

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 16:15
Brighton Beach Plymouth and Lend Lease Dodge Truks Ve zerve da Bruskee's's in Brooklyn - Kall wun 800 Brushkee vor goot deal>(Ve zerve da Bruskee's's in Brooklyn - Kall wun 800 Brushkee vor goot deal):

Karburator vor 1942 Dodge Lend Lease truk on vay to Albania by MIG jet vom Brooklyn. Komplement ov Krysler Motor's.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 16:06
Leaner reply@miro>(reply@miro):
Its the simple case of diversion, N. Korea goes south, the US moves fleet into the Yellow Sea, all eyes on Korea as China makes move on Taiwan. Tit
for Tat strategy, can't be in both places at one time!

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 15:50
KGB @In Hiding>(@In Hiding):
Anyvone kno vhere kan get karburator for 1942 Dodge Lend Lease truk?

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 15:49

Well put. It wouldn't take much to divert, constipate or otherwise cripple the U.S. military's logistics chain these days, either in Europe or Asia.

China DOES have silent partners & allies.....

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 15:47
RJ Short Gold!!!!!>(Short Gold!!!!!):
I put in more short gold on Friday, as I will do should gold limp it way up to 335. Looks like the gap was convincingly filled yesterday and I still believe short gold is the best place to be. My silver and platinum did very well also on Friday. Got out of some silver longs with 7 cents profit. A 7% profit in three days wile hold short gold is a nice return. For those of you who have expressed concern about my short gold, you see now how the long silver and platinum balance the risk and gave me profits. I will layer in more short gold at key levels and wait for the test of the recent lows. Should be some opportunities for day trades next week.

Bernatz de ventadorm - Thank you for your concern. Definitely had the skirt hiked high, but now I’ve got my knickers back in place

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 15:29
Rob adjusted #'s>(adjusted #'s):
Some have been quoting record personal bankruptcy statistics lately. Can anyone answer the following:

1 ) what were the personal banruptcy stats. in the late '20's; and
2 ) what was the ( approximate ) U.S. population in the late '20's.

I'd like to get a comparison of per-capita personal bankruptcy rates between then and now...any assistance appreciated.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 15:05
capnkev @home>(@home):
Tim, I think greenspam is gonna sit on top of the fence at next meeting, he doesnot want to push this thing either way ( faultless that way )

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 14:57
Does anyone here really think that Greenspans upcoming comments will have much of a long term effect on the markets or gold? With all this money pouring into mutual funds and with government deficits topping of and in some cases beginning to fall where else can investment capital go? Europe? Asia? Commodities? Fight for a future shrinking government bond market? I don't think so. The majority of investors in North America invest the majority of their assets in North American equities that is what they are comfortable with. I don't think Greenspan or anyone else will change that.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 14:19
We all meet at BARTS HOUSE, what say you Bart?

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 14:18
George Cole Pomboy>(Pomboy):
Richard Pomboy letter in Barron's


Case for Gold

To the Editor
Michael Santoli's article ( ``Precious Little Promise,'' July 14 ) finished a crescendo of negative
media coverage presenting the bearish case for gold. The extraordinary bullish aspects of gold
went unmentioned.

The fear story is that the central banks will sell all their gold. The reality is that very few are
selling significant amounts and the Asian central banks and others are buying. It has been
reported that, in 1996, 19 central banks bought gold while 16 sold, of which only five sold
more than 10 tons.

What is really happening is that some central banks are lending their gold through bullion
dealers to speculators who have an unprecedented short position. On the Comex alone, the short
position, before the last leg down in the gold price, was seven million ounces. Most observers
believe the OTC market in gold is three to five times as large as the Comex and that the Comex
transactions simply mirror OTC trading. That would put the total speculator short position at
over 800 tons. Furthermore, bullish sentiment, a contra-indicator, is now far lower than it was
when gold and gold shares took off in 1993. Finally, the lease rate to borrow gold from central
banks has recently been rising, indicating that even the expanded amount of gold available for
lending is being used up.

While the shorts have put on record positions, producers have been panicked into selling future
production. Fear is spread daily by a few bullion dealers trying to capture this producer
business and who are very likely short themselves.

Meanwhile, with a supply/demand deficit of 500-1,000 tons per year, the shorts must continue
to add to their positions to hold gold down. In addition, at these low gold prices, demand is
rising, further expanding the deficit. This builds on an already strong 17% increase in the
demand for gold in the first quarter.

Fear-spreading dealers predict gold prices of $300, $285 or even lower as they encourage short
sellers and producers to sell into the strong physical market because the dealers know they can
find buyers for the short sales. The dire predictions of the dealers focus on the $285 low in
1985. What they fail to say is that in 1985 there was no deficit in the market and the cost of
production was much lower, so production cutbacks were minimal. Now South Africa produces
gold at a cost of $300 per ounce versus $200 in 1985, and mine closures and production
cutbacks have already been announced which will widen the supply/demand deficit even further.

Another bullish aspect of the gold story is the EMU. While the market worries about
participants selling gold, the bigger picture is that the new euro will be a weak currency and the
Asian central bnaks will use gold to diversify their $600 billion of reserves, currently mostly in
dollars. This was made clear by Japan's Prime Minister Hashimoto when he threatened to sell
U.S. bonds to buy gold, not D-marks or other curencies.

As the romance with paper assets reaches its parabolic ascent stage, this creates a major
opportunity for those bold enough to enter the arena where gold shares now offer their best
value in decades.

Greenwich, Conn.


To the Editor
In Andy Zipser's ``Enemies Within'' ( July 7, Barron's/Lipper mutual-fund quarterly ) , I fail to
understand who's the ``enemy'' . . . unless it's Barron's.

It gets tiresome to see an article a month berating closed-end funds. If the enemy is supposed to
be the fund's directors, I'm puzzled. It seems perfectly logical that a closed-end's directors
would do all in their power to protect the fund from raiders trying to open-end it. I applaud
them. If I had wanted an open-end fund, that's what I would have bought. Usually, the holders
interested in open-ending a sound fund have been hoodwinked into buying it at its initial public
offering or at a premium - two of the simple fundamentals that seem to elude some otherwise
astute investors.

I'm equally puzzled at the reference to a four-year ``crippling'' bear market in closed-ends. My
entire portfolio has been invested in this sector since 1992; the only bear year was 1994, when
the bond- fund portion tanked - but it did recover.

Furthermore, all but two of my funds ( I keep about 25 at any one time ) were at a discount in
1992. Currently, all but two are also discounted by the market. So what? The total return of my
stock/bond funds ( 55%/45% ) so far this year is 10.5%. And the complaint that ``80% of the
funds are at a discount'' is repeating the obvious. Most closed-ends have always been discounted.
That's what makes them such good buys, if you do your homework.

Cary, N.C.

To the Editor
As usual, I enjoyed your quarterly mutual-fund review.

Artesia, N.M.


Copyright © 1997 - Barron's Online, All Rights Reserved
Two World Trade Center - 18th Floor
New York, NY 10048

We welcome your comments, questions and feedback.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 14:16
capnkev @I'mwithyadude>(@I'mwithyadude):
I'm with ya @ the bash...but....make it 443 by turkey day is what i'm lookin for.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 13:58
nomercy moregold>(moregold):
Kitco bash...425...I'm in

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 13:48
To Joe Granville, The little guy never wins. The main reason is because he never gets into a market until it is to late. His main motovation is greed and he's tring to get rich quick. This happened on the island of Hawaii during the realstate boom of the late 80's to 91. The cost of land got to high in Kailua-Kona so lava rock lots in south point started to skyrocket. Lots when from a few thousand to close to 50 thousand. This was where the little guy jumpped in. He could buy these lots. And the cost of land just went up anyway. When the market dropped they got stuck with land they couldn't sell. Some lost 70%.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 13:48
To Joe Granville, The little guy never wins. The main reason is because he never gets into a market until it is to late. His main motovation is greed and he's tring to get rich quick. This happened on the island of Hawaii during the realstate boom of the late 80's to 91. The cost of land got to high in Kailua-Kona so lava rock lots in south point started to skyrocket. Lots when from a few thousand to close to 50 thousand. This was where the little guy jumpped in. He could buy these lots. And the cost of land just went up anyway. When the market dropped they got stuck with land they couldn't sell. Some lost 70%.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 13:47
MoreGold @Kitco Bash>(@Kitco Bash):
Has anyone set a target for this year. If not, I propose that if spot Gold hits 425. anytime between now and 97/Dec option expiry, we hold the first ever Kitco Bash in Montreal over a weekend.
Who 's in on this?

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 13:28
Miro to Chairman on China Taiwan and US>(to Chairman on China Taiwan and US):
Chairman at 5:38: your view that the US military power is vastly
superior to China is very simplistic and I think the picture is much
more complex. Lets paint a scenario ( with a strong disclaimer that this
is just a scenario which may never play, but … ) Lets assume that China
wants to increase it’s position as a superpower in the Far East ( and
worldwide. )

One way to do it is to bring a significant disruption to financial
markets and economies of other countries in that region and the US.
Lets assume that China made a move toward Taiwan and the US stepped in
to defend Taiwan. Despite the US military superiority this venture and
the logistics of it would be so expensive that it would have a
significant impact on the US financial market, inflation, government
economic policies, etc. This could be one of the triggers for a stock
market crash followed by the world wide instability. What is this move
( to take over Taiwan ) is just a cover for other bigger goals? So what if
China lost in this venture? The damage to China would be relatively less
than the damage to the US and other countries and the end result would
be China’s gain.

OTOH, I think that after the US policy maker would go through all
numbers and implications , the US intervention after all may not realize.
Disruption and instability in the region would still occur with China
increasing it’s position and potentially getting Taiwan back. This would
be a win - win situation for China.

China is known as a skillful, behind the scene manipulator, ( much better
than the US ) who will ruthlessly follow through their goal no matter how
long it will take. I would not underestimate what China may do just
because the US military is superior to their own. Maybe I am just flat
wrong but I think that you have to consider much more than just a
military aspect of this move. JMHO

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 13:04
TED @liftoff>(@liftoff):
The headphones are strapped on...The Doors are blarin...and it's time for LIFT-OFF....Come on baby lite my fire.....

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 12:58
TED @Skepticalinvestor>(@Skepticalinvestor):
Roebear already plugged it ....but my good friend Max has somethin worth sayin...

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 12:53
Venerable market analyst provides current trading insights: “...we top in the next two weeks. Not the top, a top.” SEE INGER LETTER FORECAST - July 17, 1997 Report:

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 12:52
Terry Oz@canada>(Oz@canada):
Onother little news item for the old eyeballs

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 12:37
TED @terry>(@terry):
Terry: To tell ya the truth I ain't never heard of any such bird....But I'll keep an eye out fer em...Maybe they don't like Cape Breton...

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 12:26
Terry Oz@canada>(Oz@canada):
Ted,here's one for you.

Did you hear about the oooomedoodle bird?

It's got no legs.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 12:06
vronsky IS 1929 BEING REPLAYED THIS YEAR? - by Guest Guru Ure>(IS 1929 BEING REPLAYED THIS YEAR? - by Guest Guru Ure):
There is an uncannily similarity between the DOW from January 1920 to April 1930 AND TODAY’S DOW track record. Avoid reading this study at your own peril - GUEST GURU URE:

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 11:49
TED @canada>(@canada):
Monday should tell us a few things about Gold and the stock market....
Good evening JIN....I've been busy and still owe you one....

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 11:45
nomercy RBA scolded>(RBA scolded):
Gold News Flash by Robert Pringle, Head, Public Policy Centre, World Gold Council, July 18, 1997

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 11:43
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort: Where the hell are ya? and where's our damn joke

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 11:24
Steve - Perth>(
Sir James Goldsmith dies of cancer in Spain - age 64. Main person to oppose the EMU direction for the UK. ( so we are led to believe ) . Ironic news item, just following Poorboys last post. How the mighty have fallen....and took no earthly thing with him.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 11:15
Steve - Perth>(
Brazil stock market plunges 4.66% on renewed jitters

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 11:13
Poorboys Canada@holiday>(Canada@holiday):
Time of the Season - The Zombies after rising from their comatose state come and feed on the unprepared such are the Laws of the Universe. The Golden triangle of greed and suspicion haunts the pages of Kitco.Bull and Bear collide like death thundering across the pain of selfish greed.Oh Holy calf inspiring my id of existence I pray that Gold will save the World.If not, oh swine ruler of deceit, give us sixpence and save us from ourselves, as we turn into the ashes of celestial time. Yes freedom of speech must always endure,even to the savours that wish to protect us from ourselves.Happy Trails Bart.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 11:10
Donald @Home>(@Home):
LAN MAN: I am using WindowsNT 3.51. I have had it for about 2 years, rarely get a crash. The few crashes I have had have been just at boot time. Windows 3.1 was always a problem for me. What bothers me is I can't upgrade to 5.0. Microsoft wants the full price. If I upgrade to 4.0, then they will let me upgrade to 5.0. That stinks. I am staying with the 3.51. They heard the news yesterday and the stock plummeted. Serves them right.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 11:05
vronsky The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy>(The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy):
Dr. Geoffrey P.Miller, Professor of Law and Director, Center for Study of Central Banks, New York University Law School - presents erudite and comprehensive study. SEE Editorials:

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 10:53
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
In The Report on Business section of today's Globe and Mail ( Toronto ) the entire back page is devoted to GOLD...Headlines: Is It Time To Play Gold? with a great cartoon depicting someone walking buy a store-front displaying Gold bulllion and signs saying:Sale,Reduced to clear,nio reasonable offer refued and 2 for 1 Buy now!...also statistical tables showing the effect of a ten dollar increase in the price of gold on all the major gold companies....Nem's eps would jump the most and BMG'S the least...also another table giving hedging positions ( for second half of 97 ) :ABX=100%,BMG=13%,ECO=40%,HM=7%,NEM=22%,and PDG=26%....and for PANDA AEM=0%....also chart giving production costs per oz:ABX=189,BMG=197,ECO=267,HM=245,NEM=210,and PDG=225....and for PANDA, AEM=210....Royal Oak @325 has the highest production costs..

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 10:41
Steve - Perth>(
Gramlich advocated ... establishing individual investment
accounts owned by workers but managed by the government. I saw this a while back. Obviously Gramlich wants to create some more work for the Govt. They've stuffed up social security, & now they want to spread the disease. But then, maybe in light of the Dow mania, he has a point? But din't they want to put the Social Security funds into the stock market

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 10:36
Steve - Perth>(
JDM: Yes, at the moment. Especially from Microsoft. I mean crash LESS, not no-crash software.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 10:33
Ron Clinton's Fed Appointees Now in Majority>(Clinton's Fed Appointees Now in Majority):
It's relatively old news but I haven't seen it posted here before:

Gramlich, Ferguson Named to Fed

Thursday, July 10, 1997; 3:41 p.m. EDT

WARSAW, Poland ( AP ) -- President Clinton named Edward
M. Gramlich, an economics professor at Michigan University,
and Roger W. Ferguson Jr.,a securities and banking lawyer, to
the Federal Reserve Board today.

The board, headed by Alan Greenspan, formulates monetary
policy and sets major interest rates.

Gramlich is a former acting director of the Congressional
Budget Office and worked at the Federal Reserve.

Ferguson, a partner and director of research and information
systems at McKinsey & Co. in New York, holds three
degrees from Harvard University.

Their nominations had been expected.

Their confirmation would bring the seven-member Fed board
back up to full strength. Along with Greenspan, they would join
GOP-appointed holdovers Edward Kelley and Susan Phillips
and two other Clinton appointees, Vice Chairwoman Alice
Rivlin and Laurence Meyer.

Ferguson, 45, would become the third black member to serve
on the board and the first since the 1986 resignation of a Jimmy
Carter appointee, Emmett J. Rice.

Most recently, Gramlich, 58, served as chairman of a
13-member advisory commission on Social Security. Although
the commission's members couldn't agree, Gramlich advocated
raising payroll taxes and establishing individual investment
accounts owned by workers but managed by the government.

Neither nominee has a particular background in monetary
policy, but colleagues have said in interviews they expected
they would fit in with the moderate, mainstream views of the
other board members.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 10:31
Steve - Perth>(
New Zealand Gold Mining News - Macraes expansion goes on hold
Macraes Mining is deferring the $120 million
expansion of its Macraes Flat mine in eastern Otago until
the gold price recovers.

Expansion to 9m tonnes of ore processing annually at
current prices of about $US320 an ounce would use up
the company's forward selling cover within three years,
whereas cover at the existing 3m tonnes a year would last
six to seven years, said the managing director, Patrick O'Connor.

This resulted from the sudden slump in an already
weakening gold price this month after Australia's Reserve
Bank announced it had sold two-thirds of its gold reserves.

Macraes has not yet gained resource consents for its
application for the expansion. The Otago Regional
Council and the Waitaki District Council have said
decisions would not be made before July 29.

Mr O'Connor said he was clarifying the company's
situation now because the market appeared to be
factoring the expansion project into the Macraes share
price, which had fallen to 162c on Wednesday from
210c at the start of July and 331c at the start of the year.
The shares rose 3c to 165 yesterday in response to the
expansion being deferred.

Macraes was committed to the expansion and the
consents process, but to increase the hedging programme
at current prices was uneconomic, he said.

This is a dramatic period for gold and it is time to be
financially conservative.

Mr O'Connor said Macraes was not expecting the gold
price downturn to last three years.

Most people say there will be dramatic changes within a
year. If the price stays low, a lot of mines will close and
production will contract.

He believed a lot of Australian companies with multi-mine
operations would close their higher cost mines and focus
their hedging programmes on their better mines.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 10:29
STEVE-PERTH... crashless software is an oxymoron : )

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 10:18
Bob M>(
The other day when CNBC had their special 8000 show, it is amazing to watch and listen to the people who are betting their entire futures on this game. Granted, they have made a tremendous amount of money in the last three years, but the real question is will they be smart enough to get out, if they can. I feel that the big boys are hoping for a massive influx of foreign capital to come in over the next few years to prop it up, and it may just happen. But at some point, with prices at unheard of levels, common sense has to set in. To sell something, you have to find a buyer. The higher it goes, the fewer buyers there will be, of course, this has not been true to this point, but it must happen eventually. I still believe that the Wall Street boys will see how terribly battered the gold sector is ( stocks ) and begin to recomend this area if for no other reason, because it by fgar is the most undervalued sector today.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 10:13
nomercy: thanx for the reference to the Tomkins piece which produced this pearl:Economists at UCLA have decided that a sharp stock market drop of about 36% would be just great for the economy. It would push interest rates down, boost bond prices, and give pension fund managers the opportunity to buy stocks with better yields. A decent collapse in the stock market would be nice right now, the study said. We need a break for a change.

Downward and onward in La la Land..........

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 10:11
panda @>(@):
Full faith and credit...., a phrase to remember. :- )


Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 10:10
FWIW @Kitco >(@Kitco ):

Re: 09:38 and 09:42 : Excellent article nomercy. BobM, agree with you. All this, and a hint of a trade war in the air!

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 10:09
panda @>(@):
I wonder, will we see any surprise resignations from, say, Treasury or the Fed? If something like that happens.... Just a silly thought.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 10:04
Steve - Perth>(
BOB M: I genuinely feel sorry for Greenspan. If he was smart, he should take his redundancy payment now, & give speeches about what his successor should be doing. Just like Bernie Fraser, our ex Reserve Bank Governor is doing at dinners, directed at the new Governor, Ian MacFarlane. Desperate times lead to desperate measures. BTW, Bob, have been very impressed with your posts over the past months. Took me a while to come around in the beginning, though.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 10:00
Steve - Perth>(
LAN MAN: No need for shields from me. I agree entirely re: Gates etc. Never liked Apple, but MSFT software keeps falling over on me. It is useless stuff. If Bill Gates wants to win me, he had better spend a few billion on developing some crash less software. A total pain.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 09:54
Bob M: With all the distortions we need to hear more realities.
Your postings make good sense. Let's hear more from you. Thanks.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 09:52
Steve - Perth>(
Korean exporters may be heading for serious trouble.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 09:43
Lan Man @As the Worm Turns>(@As the Worm Turns):
Bob@ - Apple is a day late and a dollar short. Wintel IS the corporate standard and will remain that way. Apple had the chance to take the os market several years back, but were too greedy. They have paid and will continue to pay for that. Rhapsody os in 1998? Not a chance. They have become EVEN worse than MSFT in delaying major upgrades. NT 4.0 is the standard purchase for corp. america right now. Although I personally think that BGates is a jerk and a pervert, the trend is MSFT software. Except for a few die-hard mac owners and graphics designers, Apple is basically history.

( Shields are at 100%, but you can try anyway )

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 09:42
nomercy Greenspan>(Greenspan):
Greenspan & Company haven't a clue about why the economy is acting the way it is writes John Tomkins

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 09:38
Bob M>(
Steve-Perth- interesting take, but it is really true, the euphoria of the markets has taken over the wheel and is now driving the entire economy,but I agree its heading for a cliff and everyone in the bus is just partying. I believe that Greenspan has painted himself into a corner and his hands are now tied. His list of options has narrowed down to nothing, and it is totally running wild on its own. Isnt it hard to believe his irrational exuberance speech a 1000 Dow points ago, and now you dont hear a peep from him. There is going to be a rude awakening here very soon.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 09:30
Steve - Perth>(
GREENSPAN IS SNOOKERED: During my walk today our dog Lucy the Wonder Daschund, I was imagining what I would do if I was Alan Greenspan. ( apart from booking my retirement home with my new wife ) . I was also pretending I was acting for the good of the USA, not just for the big money people.

Well, I would think about raising interest rates, to blow the top off Wall Street, bringing it down to more realistic PE's to start with. But then I realised that if I did, then I would get a flood of more Japanese & other foreign money into the 30 year Treasuries. This would only push down the domestic inflation rate, & just continuing the climb of the US stock market. I can't drop it, I can't raise it, & my words of warning have been virtually trampled over & forgotten by the public. Lost against a tidal wave of unbelievably uneducated money saving speculators that haven't got a clue about how bad buying & holding is going to be for them when this thing falls over. I'm stuffed. Soros is on my back, stuffing up our currency deals & making a killing on the gold market. Maybe I should just roll over, like my banking friends keep going on about, & start some planning for when ALL the currencies fall over. No point wasting time on something that I can't stop. My banking colleagues been wanting to start some new regional block currencies for ages now, as they know that we have to let a heap of air out of the fiat money. Well, if it has to be, so be it. As if that isn't enough, the damned Europeans seem like they want to fight us over our aircraft mergers. Well, let them. Damn them, why don't they all just go away, & leave this old man alone in peace.

AFTER READING THE RECENT FOUR PAGE SPREAD on Alan Greenspan in the recent US Business Week, I am wondering what has inspired them to run this very revealing media spin on him. we are in control, do not worry?. Alan is the man for the hour?. After reading the article, it seems that he is softening from his previous positions years ago. When we look back on the gigantic mess that will inevitably arise in the coming years, will it be a result of Alan Greenspan going senile as the root cause of the coming depression Interesting thoughts.....

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 09:28
Bob M>(
Greenspan still has one nuke left in his arsenal against the war on gold,a weapon of mass destruction..sell off a large portion of the US gold holdings..can this already be taking place? Food for thought. If it does, the bear market in gold will be over

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 09:23
Bob M>(
Leland- The HM story during the depression is one of the lamest excuses of how mining stocks went up during the Great Depression. Everyone forgets , or doesnt like to remember, that while all other prices were declining, the price of gold was fixed by Roosevelt at approximately $20 perounce, so therefore HM had not to worry about the price of their product declining, as everyone else did. It was a complete wfix and huge windfall to the mining companies at that time. I wouldnt bet on that happening again.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 09:18
dkgkpgoi]n p ]eie0itqet\e]qe\qeit\q>(p ]eie0itqet\e]qe\qeit\q):
Hello Joe:

Don Wollanchuck is looking for Dow 20,000 after the millenium to followed by Prectors supercycle crash. He currently believes we may now have entered a correction to his predicted 4 yr cycle low ( 1990,1994,1998 ) . He also says that we may be at the begining of a new gold bull mrkt which will carry the metals and metal stocks to undrempt of levels;far byond the 1980 highs.

Where do you disagree with this and why?


kdnfgkj[on jto'qj

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 09:11
Thanks Donald. Off to read Pomboy. His gold funds must have been sucked dry.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 09:09
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Barron's Mailbag, page 58, has a detailed and very bullish response to the Michael Santoli bearish story of last week. The letter is written by Richard Pomboy.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 09:08
Joe Granville: Hard to believe in the new paradigm which you have adopted. These are good times to be sure, but I see little evidence of a basic change in human nature either on a personal level or otherwise which would cause business/investment cycles to go away and replaced by steady progress. Nor do I see people collecting bond certificates from 5000 years ago ( or 500 or 50 ) instead of gold bars and coins. We are in a special case market where all the adults at the central banks have been conned into buying US Treasuries. Marketing is a great science, but it does not repeal the laws of nature or the laws of markets...:- ) BTW, did you convert Mike Bronzino yet...:- ) ) ) ) ) ) ///Also is OBV and all that stuff out the window under the New Paradigm? Still, you must feel a little like Tony Bennett, being in the public eye again and being quoted everywhere as of old. Good to hear from you and hope all is well........

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 09:00
George Cole: I think that I read your comments correctly. The Feds
can paper over the cracks in the wall, but eventually the paper will
crack. Thanks again for your comments. This site cannot ever lose your
help on questions!!!!!

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 08:43
Welcome Joe Granville>(Joe Granville):

Hi Mr. Granville. Kitco would like your thoughts on gold. Thank you.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 08:34
nomercy Stephen Roach>(Stephen Roach):
In today's commentary by Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley, claims that UK inflation would be 4% rather than the current stated 2.7% if it wasn't for the 20% sterling appreciation. He goes on to say,
Like it or not, the traditional macro rules are working just fine. Just as the combination of rapid growth and falling unemployment is leading to the classic results of rising labor costs and accelerating inflation
in the UK, we believe that the US economy will be next to follow suit. With all due respect to the new globalization, I continue to believe that inflation is largely homegrown.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 08:34
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
A button that allows the blocking of individual posts isn't going to help Vronsky's advertising. Anyone know if the post could have been from old Joe. Is he predicting a MegaMarket elsewhere?

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 08:21
Joseph Granville @This is a MEGA Market>(@This is a MEGA Market):
I am now on record that the DOW could reach 9000 this year. Further out, my work tells me that we are coming into range of such super rally objectives of 12,000-14,000 by the start of the new millennium. I see the long bond yield heading back under 6%.

I have advanced the idea that that we have a new people's market. The most revolutionary concept about that market is now, for the first time, we can see the public as The Smart Money and the Professional Element as the dumb money, a reversal in thinking of mammoth implications.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 08:20
George Cole the CBs>(the CBs):
Lelamd; A shift of investor sentiment in favor of gold is the Fed's worst nightmare. All their manipulations are aimed at heading such a shift off at the pass. They are especially concerned because a new gold bull would seriously challenge the dollar's role as the international reserve currency of choice. And then the U.S. could no longer run huge trade deficits year in and year out.

But the free market is more powerful than the Fed.. When this paper bull ends ( as appears to be happening now ) a huge rise in gold and gold shares will be just a matter of time no matter what the CBs do or don't do. . The CBs and their allies have won a lot of battles and may win a few more, but they will lose the war.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 08:15
nomercy bears spooked by speed of price rise>(bears spooked by speed of price rise):

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 07:53
Roebear: The SKEPTICAL INVESTOR made me think. There are now trillions
in the stock market instead of billions. As investors see the DOW drop
and precious metals rise, who's to say that a shift won't drive up the
metals higher than ever seen before. Wasn't HM at $80 in 1929 and then
at $495 during the Great Depression?

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 07:45
Poster @Kitco>(@Kitco):

nomercy-Just read that article. In addition to your quote, it also said a big buyer in New York was buying big. I bet that guy who was thinking of selling his gold is feeling better now.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 07:38
nomercy Barron>(Barron):
...they seem to be a little tardy today...uuhhhmmmm!

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 07:35
George Cole>(
Steve: Vanguard recently published a pamphlet on the history of bear markets. They obviously are moving to warn investors that stormy seas lie ahead.

Roebear; Thanks for the SKEPTICAL INVESTOR! Kind of reinforces my own thinking,

Has the stock market peaked? Look for the Dow to drop another 100 points or so and then rally. If that rally does not carry to new highs, the game is over.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 07:15
nomercy they're confused>(they're confused):
Article in todays Australian, Age, Speculation about the identity of the buyers ranged from jewellery manufacturers re-entering the US markets to the possibility that a big gold producer had unwound its forward contracts and was buying gold.
The huge short positions still existing, augurs well for this rally. As apparently from all reports, the bears, still continued on short selling during the last couple of days rise ( RJ, posted he was going to at $322 and $324 if I'm not erring ) .
...stubborness doesn't pay...the trend is changing...RJ let the new trend be your friend

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 07:03
FWIW been there, done that>(been there, done that):

FWIW: Glad not to be long in stocks now. There is an unmistakable sense of dread in the leveraged S+P longs this weekend.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 06:36
Donald @Home>(@Home):
STEVE-PERTH: Thanks. Ms. Marcos will be pleased to learn that her next pension check won't bounce. The Philippines have endured a lot during the past hundred years, most of it not of their own doing, they deserve a break.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 06:35
Bob @....MSFT drop on good news is really good news>(@....MSFT drop on good news is really good news):
The good news on MSFT net and propsects forward received a 6% selloff. It may be early yet but this paper Bull may be turning. WINTEL's domination will be tested when Apple introduces Rhapsody os in 1998 on Power PC CPUs AND INTEL boxes. The times are changing and what goes up hard and fast is a prime candidate for early exhaustion --- as many men know ;- ) ...but that's another story.

Top of the Morn'

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 06:17
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
GOOD MORNIN ALL! Roebear ( 20:03 ) Thanks fer pluggin me friend's site! Senator Blutarsky: Thanks fer the welcome back! Cherokee ( 2:15 ) Just DINGY!
MGraves:It's great to be back in Cape Breton,Kitco,and CANADA...Told ya we weren't goin nowhere...Am off ta read yer letter....

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 05:57
Chairman @>(@):

Goldbug23: The US is actually getting better and cheaper than China, with regard to military strength. If China tries to spend the resources required for a World Class military, they will bankrupt themselves, just like the Soviets

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 05:45
Donald @Home>(@Home):
I hear that Money Magazine, next Monday edition, has a cover that shouts, SELL STOCKS NOW.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 05:41
Goldbug23 @Armageddon>(@Armageddon):
Mr. Chairman: ;= ) Hope you are right but then Neville said Peace in Our Time too as I recall and then what happened? I agree our Navy and Air Power are superior to China now but we are losing ground!

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 05:38

Re: Taiwan. Look, the US Navy is vastly superior to China's Navy. China is just as outmatched in air warfare capability. China can only get to Taiwan via Sea and Air. China ain't gonna get Taiwan!

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 05:37
Goldbug23 @Armageddon>(@Armageddon):
Rhyme: Agree, the build up in Chinese military is fearful and as for our present administration I wonder if we would really fight to save Taiwan. They are more interested in human rights interventions.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 05:26
Rhyme >( ):
Re:Your 5:23 Posting
I'm wondering whether the world can truly appreciate the potential
impact of the rise of mainland China's power,especially regionly,that
is in the far east.The official U.S. policy is to pretend that there's
some line in the sand around Taiwan ...

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 05:15
Goldbug23 @Armageddon>(@Armageddon):
Rhyme: Will second your comments on Steve-Perth's 03:20. The questions asked are right on. I also think the Chinese may surprise us and move on Taiwan one of these days, altho some say they do not have the capacity.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 05:12
Regarding your 3:20

I too think that the scenario that Panda lays out is absolutely correct.
The long bond chart is ,I think,very revealing.A break to higher levels
repesents greater risk evident in the lending of money and in the definition of value.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 05:04
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust):
Yahoo Reuters Oil article
mentions gold also and Merrill as usual ( Bill O'Neil ) plays down recent gold action saying natural turn...not a major trend change.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 04:11
Steve - Perth>(
Yeah, I DETEST threads. Apologies to all threads fans.
I must away. My miniture Dachshund needs a walk in the nice sunshine. Been 0 to 1 degrees celcius lately at night, so need to get some nice sun while we can ( 20 degrees today ) . Fantastic weather, as usual. No rain thought, which is a bit of a worry for farmers in our wheatbelt. El Nino is hitting here in Australia, I am afraid to say. The Eastern States seem to get hit worse than Western Australia. They had a big drought during the depression in the 30's ( dust storms etc ) , I seem to recall from reading history.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 04:11
Roebear @OOPS!>(@OOPS!):
Steve-Perth, Sorry, guess we are both impatient! And I'm gonna be late!

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 04:06
Steve - Perth>(
Vanguard chief says equity markets too SPECULATIVE.
Have you ever wondered how weird it is that there are about 7000 mutual funds in the US, and only about 3500 stocks? It would be better just to buy about 200 stocks and be done with it. ( At lower PE's of course )

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 04:05
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Bart, No threads, please. Avid just went to a scroll format like this one but it is not as nice as Barts! Bart you are the best. I must be ( like EB ) AWAY! NTI.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 04:04
Steve - Perth>(
DONALD: This is for you.
IMF offers Phillipines $1.1 BILLION after currency crash

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 04:01
Steve - Perth>(
ROEBEAR: Thanks for the reply. I need to be patient. The URL finally came through after about 3 minutes wait! EXCELLENT article, as per last months one. Yes, my email address IS correct. I think I am one of the few that actually do include my correct email address on this site. If I did not email you back some time ago, I may have been flat out in end of year work or something.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 03:58
Roebear @Steve-Perth>(@Steve-Perth):
Steve, if that's your correct email you should have it. Enjoy! It's 4AM here and I'm off to slavery. Poor Richard would be proud of me!

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 03:47
Roebear @HersheyPaUSA>(@HersheyPaUSA):
Steve-Perth I would love to post that article from The Skeptical Investor here, but I fear I would anger some kitcoites, and perhaps Bart, as it is five pages long. I was just there it is up and running and there is no registration or password. Vronsky should add this one to his retinue. What to do, here is the URL again and if it doesn't work for you let me know how I can get it to ya. Is that your real email address?

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 03:37
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
kolorado, a 500 point correction? I agree the market is strong but it is also showing its age and fragility. There are a couple oil stocks I would like to ride like I did last year but the crosshairs won't stay on'em, they keep moving! Besides oil and gold/silver stocks I'm chicken for now. Since I pulled out DOW 7600 I'll be missing out if it goes to 10K, but I might even throw in some S&P puts when the charts and the chicken bones look right! I do know what you are saying, it is allurring, but be careful, keep your eye on the charts! It's Jack be nimbletime coming up.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 03:20
Steve - Perth>(
PANDA: I think you are being too hard on yourself with your excellent TYX chart. Considering the wilder gyrations in the past few years, I don't think it matter very much being out a little bit. My guess is that Panda is probably on the money. Possibly a large breakdown on the Dow, soon, then a further continuation of the Bull. I know I want to get my clients back in for a further spin when I see better value buying. I'm not sure that a medium sized correction will burn these share buying critters off for a few more years yet. Believe it or not. Hence the gold price may rise for a while, but may still drop through the floor yet. As Bill Buckler says, a definite bottom is NOT in yet.
1. What is behind the Russian Banks trading of Gold?
2. How big are the large trading block wars going to get?
3. How long are the Muslim states in the Middle East going to sit on their hands?
4. Is there any anti meltdown program available from the IMF & Bank of International Settlements to handle an expanded currency collapse?
5. Do the major players WANT us to be viewing gold as a total irrelevence so that we will adopt new regional trading block currencies.
Something is really fishy IMHO.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 03:12
Roebear @RAIN!>(@RAIN!):
Donald, so my news service was on the road!: ) ) What are all those +'s and black figures on the portfolio?! Was knocked off the air by T-storm but we needed rain, just went under drought restrictions here in Pennsylvania. Will be deep in slavery into next week, PM's will have to keep going to emancipate me!

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 03:04
Auric @home>(@home):

GVC--$545 would assure a Kitco Bash! You must buy the first round if the high for this move in gold is Five-Four-Five!

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 03:01
Steve - Perth>(
ROEBEAR: Could you please cut & paste the currency/stock market article in full ( 18/7/97 20:03 ) here at Kitco. I can't seem to link into that site. Locked out for some reason. Thanks, Steve

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 02:55
GVC @Auric in hoosierland>(@Auric in hoosierland):
Auric: I don't know about the year 2000, but I have $545 as my target price by this time next year.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 02:54
Steve - Perth>(
BART: I beg you NOT to adopt the Thread suggestion for this site. What makes it easy to read is not having to use that system. The downside is that you have to scroll through, but not as far as the thread system. The squelch idea seems good, but what if the annoying post person simply changes their ID code by just one alpha/numeric? Back to where you started. Best to simply ignore the post. Unfortunately there are some very bored people out there. They should go back to work, & stop bragging about retirement, whatever that means.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 02:49
Auric @Away! >(@Away! ):

Cherokee--Friendly wager--I say gold at $600 by Decemer 31, 1999. You say $800. Whoever is closest buys the first round at the Kitco Bash! We on?

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 02:45
Having traded gold stocks and funds extensively for years, I recommend the use of noload funds to allow easier sleep at night for those trying to decide how to benefit from this rally, and any future move. The two top gold funds for last week were from Fidelity, often presented at no cost by Schippi at

Further gold fund comparisons are available at

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 02:37
cherokee @the-tree>(@the-tree):

i'll jump on that one....

$800.00 before the new millenium. based on
mob psychology due to financial and weather
related chaos. mix-in some religous fanatics,
and the new world order; the balkans, middle
east, china, korea, africa ( famine ) , and one
or two terrorist groups with nukes, el nino,
comet fly-by, prophecy from the bible,
and what do you have?

you have a paradigm shift in mob psychology from
a sensible orderly world[sic], to one where chaos
is expected, and around every corner. robert heinlein
wrote about mob psychology in the future......we will
live his dream, as we live isaac asimovs' vision for
the future. these men were great writers, but more than
that, they were giants and futurists with huge shoulders.

welcome to the party ----ride, ride, ride, ( jo jo gunne )

cherokee!; ) dot-ssm-fat --imm

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 02:33
To listen to the popular media one might have thought that gold
had declined from $400 to $100.What we've actually seen, while not
exactly having been fun ,is an approximately 25% decline in the price.
I'm not sure about the rest of you but I've experienced this in stocks
I've owned and most times come out O.K. if I've done my homework.Bottoms
,of course, are hard to pick but,I think, given the large speculater
short positions and the popular media this may be it.Forgive the guess.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 02:15
cherokee @the great equalizer------->(@the great equalizer-------):
for every action, there is a equal and opposite reaction.

the pendulum will not be denied

----------chaos and flux,
they have arrived........

ted----are you in the dinghy, or just dingy?

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 01:52
Senator Blutarsky Retired>(Retired):

Welcome back, Ted. No more road trips! :- ) ! Eldorado: This latest action in gold sure beats the hell out of 50 cent trading ranges! I think them bears is sweating in their shorts this weekend!

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 01:46
Eldorado @ THE scene>(@ THE scene):
You all have a profitable week! Just watch out for failure of penetration of resistance areas and penetration of support/previous resistance areas! Also watch the crude and grains next week. Things ARE on the move but they have areas to retest and sometimes break. I think Monday late or Tuesday early will be a day of reversal in much that we are looking at. In any case, pay attention to details. For whatever it's worth, I'll be back next Sunday. Enjoy!

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 01:41
Auric @home>(@home):

I still would like to know RJ's opinion on what the high in gold will be between now and the year 2000.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 01:34
Jack the devil made them do it>(the devil made them do it):

The rational that the metal bears muster is in the
manipulations of the Euro/US stock markets, the US bond
market and the constant negative press versus gold; all
of which have keept the US dollar looking comfy.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 01:25
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Millhouse -- If yesterdays and todays performance can be any kind of indicator of silver, I would most certainly agree! Totally wimpy! If it won't break North, then it WILL break South! All the better to purchase it. But I still do not like gold and silver travelling in different directions. Typically means that one or the other will not travel far.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 01:11
Milhouse @Home>(@Home):

BillD : You asked me to explain the comment silver remains the commodity from hell. This is how Martin Armstrong describes silver. He thinks silver will go to $3.50 before it goes to $6.00 and in fact believes that silver must take out its double bottom at 3.50 ( from 1991 and 1993 ) before a real bull market can develop.

GFD : Your 18/7 15:47 post touched on what I believe is the single most important element in today's financial markets - currency instability. Continued currency instability will probably be the catalyst which brings down the US stock and bond markets and triggers the next gold bull market.

ALL : I am not too excited about the current move in the gold price and will not get excited until gold makes a solid break through $400. However, I am now convinced that Australian gold stocks bottomed on July 8. The only problem I have with this conviction on gold stocks is that I made a substantial purchase of gold company shares and call options on July 8, and I have never bought anything at the absolute bottom before. Perhaps this is the first time.

Regards, Milhouse

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 01:10
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Mac -- I have one correction to my last post. That is, at this point, I couldn't care less for your explanations! Frankly, I don't anymore give a damn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 01:09
Jack There's a Limit>(There's a Limit):

How long can Intel continue to cut it's prices and remain at it's rarified altitude?,4,12513,00.html
Or is this competiton, or another indicator of possible deflation in the pipeline?

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 01:02
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Mac -- In all that time, then and since, have you even seen even one rational/explanation from these bears for gold to be continuing down to such and such? I've seen many a rational for it to go up, and many or most of them remain true today. I have been asking for months upon months for their rational, with none forthcoming! I will simply say put up or shut up!

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 00:41
Mac: So, what is your point? No need to resort to pictures. Comic books don't scan well. Words will do nicely if you use them to present fully formed thoughts in complete sentences.

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 00:37
kinder and gentler hurry along now, yaahear>(hurry along now, yaahear):
MAC: OH, please do not delay your journey on our account. You-ahl hurry along now, heear!

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 00:35
Bart Kitner (Kitco)>(
UPLOAD your files now in two easy steps ( for Netscape users ) . You can add documents, pictures, sound, or movies to your comments without having to learn to use FTP software! Details at http:///ftp_server.html. ( end of advertisment )

Date: Sat Jul 19 1997 00:05
ark tastycore>(tastycore):
Normency @1628: Liked the link ; particularly :if you had enough money
one could go long gold and sell to the shorts on the way up. Best
reading in many a day!!! |:-}}} )

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 23:59
Mac And-here@we-need-pictures>(And-here@we-need-pictures):
Earl, Sorry I went over your head. Things are hard to undrstand when we go out of our way trying to be kinder a gentler. I'm working on some graphics to post. I'm sure pictures will help you more. ZZZZOOOOOOMMMM!!!!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 23:50
Mac: So, what's yer point?

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 23:48
George Cole SHIFTS>(SHIFTS):

We are on the same wavelength. I see bullion going anywhere from $335 to $350 on this rally. But the reaction from this rally will be the key as to to whether this bear has truly ended.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 23:39
Mac squelch@thin-skin>(squelch@thin-skin):
Tanami - I'm sure you realize how sensitive and precious many of the viewers here are. They hunger and thirst for knowledge - just so long as it agrees with their narrow views. Last summer there was a Wolf running loose here attacking the bulls - seems that even Bart got bit, and there has been one filter after another in an attempt to moderate the overly zealous opposing view. Maybe it's a good thing to protect the feelings of such thin skinned individuals - I really don't know - but it just seems to me that the world is a better place when the whiners and cry babies are paid less attention to and the voices of the Mavericks and Outcasts are allowed to ring out!!!! Sometimes I'm glad I'm old - maybe I won't be here to witness the final outcome of what happens when society worries more about being a kinder and gentler place than being a stong and honest place!!!!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 23:28
RJ..... Can't wait for Bart's Squelch button
Execute a contract on Hepcat
payment in Gold will be made to your Swiss account
Good Hunting!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 23:22
As we all ponder what will cause the present stock market to go down and gold to go up. Could it be the present Senate hearing going on now. Fox Network got high ratings for showing the hearing live and some of the mainstream media groups are starting to pay attention?

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 23:08
Bill Buckler>(
What a time to be cut off the net! My ISP just got its act back together so I can post weekend charts, commentary etc. Panda ( Jul 18 22:53 ) The uptick in long bond rates on Friday ( 6.48% to 6.53% ) is being blamed on a 17% blowout in the U.S. trade deficit for June and on record highs in consumer confidence.

Long bonds getting below 6.50% recently is a direct result of the currency turmoil in Asia. The Dollar has been up on a combination of safe haven buying and foreign eagerness to get on board the U.S. stock market. The 130 point Friday dump on the Dow is no big deal proportionally, but it is a big deal given the fact that the Dow just topped a big psychological number when it broke through 8000. The last time the Dow broke through such a level ( 7000 ) , we had the 10% correction and the Fed raised rates right in the middle of it.

I've had a lot of e-mail regarding the double bottom on both A$ and US$ gold charts at my For now, all that I know for sure is that the $US 11 rise over the past two days was as unexpected as was the dive to $US 315 two weeks ago. It will get interesting if and when that dive is completely recovered, as it will be if Gold gets to $US 332.70. That's where the resistance will be found. In fact, Gold got to $US 331.90 intra-day on Friday, so it is pretty well already there.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 22:55
REB na>(na):
Auric: Sounds to me like the Europeans are taking their que from Helms-Burton. That sort of thing can go both ways.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 22:53
panda @>(@):
Here's the bond chart. This could be interesting at this juncture. Investors Business Daily had a column musing about deflation. They said that the biggest problem with deflation is that few have any experience in dealing with it. My opinion? If it's in the paper, it's probably wrong! I haven't read my WSJ or IBD in two weeks. It's a,.... 'refreshing' experience!

Now, if the deflation scenario is to take hold, a tremendous amount of wealth must be destroyed rapidly enough to 'shock' people in to not spending money. I don't see this at the moment.

If inflation comes to the fore, we need an inflationary process. The currency markets are providing us with such amusement ( ! ) . A little devaluation here, a little devaluation there, and presto! A trade war via currency devaluations. Don't need Smoot-Hawley, hell we got MBAs! :- ) )

The peculiar thing to all of this, is that currency turmoil will spill over immediately in to the bond market. This will make the stock boys queasy, but not necessarily right away. We could see a divergence between stocks and bonds, I don't really know how this would play out. One thing is for sure, the vast majority of MF players are NOT looking at the currency markets. They don't even know that this will affect their stock/fund holdings! All they know is, Invest for your retirement. Truely, if this scenario plays out, sad times are coming.

FWIW, the Dow could drop as much as 1200 points and still be in a bull market! Short positions are for the very nimble only, at this juncture. Intel, post split, is at new highs. The market seems almost manic. We could get a good correction here, and just as quickly, zoom to all time new highs for a final blow-off. Some of these daily charts a really spooky in terms of the fantastic percentage gains. The question is, Is five percent a day normal?!

If you want real weird, try 25% a year gains compounded for three years. Some people think this a normal rate of return. There is a biblical injunction about the road to Hell being broad and easy to follow, and the road to Heaven, narrow and winding. It describes Wall Street very well. It's easy to plunk your money in. But getting your money out when everyone else wants theirs to?

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 22:21
Auric @$600 in 2000>(@$600 in 2000):

I believe Panda mentioned a possible trade war. Check this out. I would appreciate any comments.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 22:16
Reify @yet another opine>(@yet another opine):
GOLD is up, so are most spirits on this forum. Why not be a little tolerant of the Hepcats in this group. Maturity, emotional problems, serenity to accept, etc. we all have our little bag of problems, and one often learns from others that are different than we.

Let us learn to listen to many sides, it can only help to broaden our outlook and understanding. Cest la vie, non?

It is the diversity that makes this a great site.

Our mouse gives us the ability to skip when so desired, great little invention.

Most important we should all have a pleasant and enjoyable weekend.
Shabbat Shalom, y'all.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 22:06
auroelf .>(.):
Earl, NJ: Thanks for the chart, Earl. What a pleasure to see rising lines on a gold chart again. Let us hope that the failure to regain yesterday's high was, as you pointed out, only squaring for the weekend.
NJ, special thanks for the Candlestick page. It looks helpful. Despite Earl's kind comments, I am a beginner at candlesticks, with only a few photocopied pages to work from. Your URL looks like a good summary.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 21:37
vronsky IS 1929 BEING REPLAYED THIS YEAR? - by Guest Guru Ure>(IS 1929 BEING REPLAYED THIS YEAR? - by Guest Guru Ure):
There is an uncannily similarity between the DOW from January 1920 to April 1930 AND TODAY’S DOW track record. Avoid reading this study at your own peril - GUEST GURU URE:

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 21:36
Auric @home>(@home):

Nicely done, eh lads? It's good to have a few things go our way for a change.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 21:13
LSteve @home>(@home):
I asked my four year old son Jacob what he thought of gold. He said one word, good. I asked my five year old daughter Elizabeth what she thought of gold. She said one word, pretty. Based on this information I'm buying

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 21:12
kolorado @San Diego>(@San Diego):
Roebear: I was very close to bailing out of my Gold and Silver stocks before Thursdays bounce. Now I'm equally close to selling my techs. I'm hoping for a 500 point DOW correction. That will keep the equity paper bull going. Kitcoites cannot understand how strong the paper bull is unless they have schizoid personalities like mine. For many it's entertainment pure and simple. We want to ride the bull until its too late. Arch Crawford is calling for a military or trade war next week. Maybe Gold will get another boost. Only Greenspan can break this equity bull before it goes down in flames- and I think he has given up trying. He will quit his post so the bear won't escape on his watch. Perhaps Greenspan's resignation as chairman will accomplish what he gave up trying to do - create a selling panic.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 20:56
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Dow/Gold Ratio is 23.94 tonight

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 20:49
Earl.... you have mail, ding, ding.

D.A , thanks again. I'm into grains mainly , but I'll trade anything if it moves.


Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 20:18
Donald @Home>(@Home):
ROEBEAR: Wow! I have been out all day, drove 600 miles, only caught bits and pieces on the car radio. Everything I own but one went in the right direction. That doesn't happen often.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 20:03
Roebear @BloodyBrit>(@BloodyBrit):
Someone's friend here ( I won't say his name, Ted ) has a well conceived article bearing on stock market and currency problems.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 19:57
Big Time Tom Ah me!>(Ah me!):

One-time-poster wrote concerning hepcat and some of the reactions to him:

Take a look at hepcat’s Fri Jul 18 1997 10:09
post to Big Time Tom, in which he says 95% of the people who come fresh to this site are already thinking about
buying gold, and just need some confirmation that this is a good idea. From being parked on this site for one year, we
know that any time the question is posed, Mooney will respond in the affirmative. We have heard for the last six months
that the benefit-risk ratio has never been better, yet all one has to do is wait another day or another week and it gets
exponentially better. Other points in his post indicate that hepcat feels that this visiting 95% needs to be told that
presently, purchasing gold might not be the best thing to do with their hard earned money. Is that so difficult to

Yet Big Time Tom, in his Fri Jul 18 1997 12:58 post, replies I am unable to make much sense of your latest
ramblings... Thus, Hepcat's viewpoint was disregarded, folks...

What a joke. Banning hepcat, or anyone because they know how to push your hot buttons, will make this site a joke,
End of quote.

My reply:

Hi John. How are you doing? I absolutely agree with you that the idea of banning someone from this discussion forum is a bad idea; indeed, I tend to oppose censorship of all kinds. But an important part of freedom is also the freedom to ignore the riffraff, or what one personally regards, however incorrectly, as riffraff. So perhaps Bart's squelch function is the perfect solution. I have a sneaking suspicion, however, that many won't use it. When someone makes a spectacle of himself, there is always that temptation to look in on the next round!

As for my ignoring the Hepcat viewpoint, I plead guilty. Virtually every ( unmoderated ) discussion forum has a John Hepcat: Someone who thrives on attention, and makes so many rambling posts that he simply doesn't have the time to craft any of them well. But if you can show me how the above remarks about 95% of the people who come fresh to this site was a relevant response to my post, then I'll be the first to apologize.


Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 19:56
Big Time Tom Ah me!>(Ah me!):

One-time-poster wrote concerning hepcat and some of the reactions to him:

Take a look at h

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 19:48
panda @>(@):
one-time-poster -- This site is supposed to be for people interested in the gold market and gold derivatives. It is also supposed to be a site where people of like minded investing can exchange information on what may or may not affect the precious metals markets. It has grown, with no objections, to include some other commodities such as grains and oil. When someone post an investment view, with no plausible theory behind it... Example, gold will go to $250. Why? When the response is, Because someone knowledgable told me so..., do you see what I mean? On the other hand, if you say that you have information about central bank dishoarding or can present a case for deflation... You are backing your assertion with a reasoned case. This does not mean that you are right or wrong, just a different view point with some form of REASONING behind it. Many people were bullish on Bre-X minerals. Just as many, if not more, were convinced of fraud. There was spirited debate and bruised egos. In the end, damaged trading accounts. Did anyone claim a moral authority to save everyone from themselves? Most didn't, but I can remember one who did. That one is still clinging to that 'higher' authority. That 'one' also invoked a higher ( government ) authority against some who made some stupid and silly assed comments toward the 'annointed one'. The point is, much time has been wasted on this individual. I have been here for a while. I have seen this person in full bloom awhile back. This person was an instigator then, and still is. I have broken a promise not waste anymore space on this person. The moral is simple, invest at your own peril. Choose your information source carefully, and recognize the RISK.

Bond chart later on. Already wasted too damn much time on NOTHING!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 19:44
tanami @diversity>(@diversity):
Bart, i'm not that regular a poster to kitco but think a squelch button
might not be such a good idea. Diversity and the airing of differences
of opinion are important and personally have found hepcat a welcome
antidote to some of the more blinkered views presented.
The kitco site contains it's gems, but there can be a lot of posts to
read through and i was wondering if a thread format like that used at
would be more suitable.
Also think that palladium and platinum will become more prominetly
traded meatls and if lease rates were avaliable for these metals
it would be a big plus to be able to look them up at kitco.
Just a general word of thanks for what really is an exceptional
site, the chart and lease information is just terrific.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 19:35
Roebear @allthe waytoHersheyBank>(@allthe waytoHersheyBank):
Posting problems? So I'll be brief

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 19:00
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Hepcat -- I've heard of it before, but I've never seen any real info on the squared circle concept. Perhaps you can direct me to some information or a site, or present the information here so all might benefit. I'd appreciate it. I always like to ask for a rational basis.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 18:50
one-time-poster: So, what's yer point?

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 18:47
Steve Kaplan reports the Martian Quote from July 7. I posted that this Martian went out and bought ABX calls then and am quite happy since they have more than tripled! May we all be called Martians!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 18:38
one-time-poster banning@ridiculous>(banning@ridiculous):
Everybody whines about hepcat, just because he tends to be rude, while they themselves make ridiculously vague predictions that are essentially useless. Some even want hepcat banned...what a bunch of whiners.

If you can’t make a prediction, and then stand behind it to the point of success or failure without continually adjusting it, or saying well, maybe this, or maybe that, then your predictions are garbage. Look back at NJ’s Fri Jul 18 1997 11:39 post - he makes a comment about Jerry Favors, stating He is one rare analyst who has not hedged his call with any ifs and butts. Hey, hepcat doesn’t hedge his calls with ifs and butts either, so what does that make him? We seem to find the goldbug’s answer in Mother’s Fri Jul 18 1997 14:06 post, in the words johny you make me so proud...Loser you were born and a LOSER you are now and a LOSER you will die. While Mother’s post certainly contained no trace of information related to trading or investing in precious metals, please notice that nobody commented that Mother had made an inappropriate post and should be banned from the site despite the post’s tone.

Why is it that nobody on this forum seemed to notice when hepcat dropped a comment on the squared circle? BTW, 90% of those that claim knowledge of the concept haven’t got a clue, but I suspect hepcat does...

This site is worth a lurk on occasion, but given the escalating crybaby level, I can’t see why anyone would want to regularly post if they believe differently than the gold will soon start its move that will send it all the way to Alpha Centauri mindset to which goldbugs persistently cling.

Goldbugs seem to intentionally disregard any opposing point of view. Take a look at hepcat’s Fri Jul 18 1997 10:09 post to Big Time Tom, in which he says 95% of the people who come fresh to this site are already thinking about buying gold, and just need some confirmation that this is a good idea. From being parked on this site for one year, we know that any time the question is posed, Mooney will respond in the affirmative. We have heard for the last six months that the benefit-risk ratio has never been better, yet all one has to do is wait another day or another week and it gets exponentially better. Other points in his post indicate that hepcat feels that this visiting 95% needs to be told that presently, purchasing gold might not be the best thing to do with their hard earned money. Is that so difficult to comprehend?

Yet Big Time Tom, in his Fri Jul 18 1997 12:58 post, replies I am unable to make much sense of your latest ramblings... Thus, Hepcat's viewpoint was disregarded, folks...

What a joke. Banning hepcat, or anyone because they know how to push your hot buttons, will make this site a joke, too.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 18:35
Bart Kitner (Kitco)>(
GVC: Thanks for the sugestions - the search engine is almost at the top of our priority list for this site which brings me to my next comment about what IS at the top:

TO MOST: Don't be too upset with hepcat. His posts have been instrumental in inspiring the next discussion group enhancement - The Squelch Function.

Once we get started with a password system for adding comments you'll also be able to block out all posts made by any contributors you choose.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 18:03
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
Hey Ted .... You've got a sun stroke seagull head'in your way.
Having trouble posting through all the B.S created by Hepcat.
Anyone have a shovel?

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 17:52
Bob @...GCS about Soros and the CBs>(@...GCS about Soros and the CBs):
The comment I made about the CBs smarting about Soros currency plays ( Sterling in particular ) was my opion. The comment source about Soros possibly playing the short side was quoted from a Yahoo article that cited a RSA financial paper. Hey, but who cares anymore ? ;- )


Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 17:32
D.A.: Sorry, but Auroelf is the keeper of the keys to more recondite patterns. I only know that when they are tall and open, that's good and when they are long and filled, that's bad. ...... ( :- ) )

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 17:15
Steve John>(John):
Within one dollar and six months of silence.. and I'll give you the advantage as Gold is closer to your $325.00 .. nite nite Johny

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 17:14
Big Time Tom Selling low>(Selling low):

I repeat: I'm sure glad that John@home didn't sell his gold at $117 or $118 an ounce the other day. Imagine how depressing that would have been going into the weekend!


Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 17:11
Steve John>(John):
Ok Johny $335.00 put up or shut up !!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 17:08
diogenes for his wisdom>(for his wisdom):

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 16:58
John N. Retiarivs et felix frigidvs svm sed non felix hepaticvs.>(Retiarivs et felix frigidvs svm sed non felix hepaticvs.):

Perhaps the real initials of BT were not /B/S, as his detractors would assert, but /G/S!

A good weekend to all except the shorts, may /they/ stew /this/ weekend.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 16:48
Miro @easy comes - easy goes>(@easy comes - easy goes):
Just a few days ago everybody was talking about mighty Bill making $3
billions in a day. Well MSFT went down by 6% today and Bill lost $2.5
billions. Bill, did not we tell you to become a contrarian and put your
money into gold?! You could have kept some of it :- )

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 16:41
Bob Palermo>(
Is the bickering between John and several others in this discussion group ever going to end?


Do you understand who participates in this discussion group and in the gold stock group? Mostly, they are people who want gold and the other precious metals to go up. Much of your analysis and commentary is level headed but your delivery is abrasive. Just make your comments about where you think gold is headed and then leave it alone. Don't respond to the people who snipe at you. Don't worry about when you will get respect. Just give your analysis.

Also, when on the 'Gold + Silver coin and stock discussion group' mentioning CocaCola or 3M as a stock pick seems inappropriate to me. A more appropriate comment may be that you don't think now is the time to buy gold stocks. To me, comparing the merits, potential, and results of FGRA with KO is like comparing apples and oranges. Certainly FGRA can possibly halve or double in a week but KO will most likely take two years to do the same.

The others ( and you know who you are ) ,

On several occasions, John's analysis has been right. Yet you twist it and ridicule it. Give him the respect he deserves and let him know when he is right. Maybe if you quit sniping, he will quit reacting. Also realize gold HAS been a bad investment for quite a while and if someone says so they are right. Further, everyone's favorite stock FGRA has also been a bad investment ( moving from 1.35 to .35 ) so you should admit it. ( Do you really think that John has been driving the price of FGRA down? ) Most other junior precious metals stocks have also done badly over the last year ( such as IC which has moved from 16 to 4 ) . Can FGRA turn around? I don't know. ( And you can't be sure either, John. )

Will junior gold stocks ever rally? I bet some day they do. Will the DJIA slump some day. Almost certainly.

To all,

Lets get back to a civil discussion of the relative merits and problems of investing in the precious metals and precious metals stocks. There will be disagreements and differences of opinion. That's the point.

Bob Palermo

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 16:39
MoreGold CNN: The market's really short now. If you had enough money, you could go long and just sell to the shorts on the way up,>(CNN: The market's really short now. If you had enough money, you could go long and just sell to the shorts on the way up,):
Doesn't this sound pretty.
MIRO: I had the exact same thought today about YAHOO. No Gold coverage.
I sent them a not too complementary e-mail.
Great minds do think alike.....
Like I poster earlier, the shorts will be sweating bullets this weekend.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 16:37
NJ Candlesticks>(Candlesticks):
Earl : Thanks. Maybe we can ask D.A. to explain the charts. My very basic information is comes from

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 16:36
nomercy COT>(COT):
COT report as of July 15

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 16:28
nomercy SOROS>(SOROS):
CNN reports- rumors of Soros Management selling $800 million in Treasuries and buy Gold

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 16:23
REB na >(na ):
The gold eagle charts of the four precious metals are particularly interesting today. All four were up most of the day. Gold and Silver were attacked by shorts at the end of the day. Gold was rescued at the end by BT or someone else, but silver was not.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 16:23
Terry Oz@canada>(Oz@canada):
Interesting times a comin.Try this then click on Storm Clouds of Inflation

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 16:18
diogenes with the lantern>(with the lantern):
all that glitters is not gold

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 16:03
Mother hepcat>(hepcat):
There you go again, silly child! you got that wrong too, remember? yes the accident was my fault six years ago, and you wished I was dead silly child, remember? but as you can see, you must be allucinating again, oh lord, and today of all days, when there is such a beautiful GOLDEN sunshine! Johny, it wasn't your sister, who was paralyzed it WAS you child, remember? oh well how could you after your brain surgery

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 16:00
GFD Storm Clouds II>(Storm Clouds II):
Someone posted here earlier about gold rising with the dow in the last segment of the market. With gold acting well in the face of a strong US dollar and the dow earnings being potentially threatened by the same strength we may now be witnessing the setting for the last stage of the bull market mania.


Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:59
JS @home>(@home):
After reading Oracle's comments on a world gold standard I have the following question. If the G7 were to adopt some sort of gold standard, what would be the impact on the price of silver? I'm a silverbug. Should I be investing in gold instead? If I buy both gold and silver what ratio is best? 10 oz silver to 1 oz gold? 100 oz silver to 1 oz gold? Keep in mind that I'm a small investor. My total silver holding at this moment are only around 1600 oz. of silver. I'm now in the postion to purchase another 1000 oz. of silver. Is now the time to buy and should I buy silver or gold?

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:57
RT(not J) @Vronsky...Aug gold chart>(@Vronsky...Aug gold chart):
VRONSKY: would you possibly have available the GCQ7 chart from last night's trading action continuing on into this morning Eldo and I would love to see it if you do. many thanks.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:47
GFD Storm Clouds>(Storm Clouds):
The recent bout of currency instability should be examined carefully. The great depression of the 1930's was alleged to have started with the collapse of a small bank in Austria. My attenae have been twitching over the last few days at some of the posts on Kitco where terms like competitive devaluation and smoot hawley.

Instability goes both ways. Greenspan does not want the dollar skyrocketing any more than he want's it plumeting.

The current icon of this market is the dow industrials index. All of the dow companies are global companies that report their profits in $US. *Significant* earnings disappointment due to unstable currency markets will be more than enough to put an axe into the head of this mania.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:43
Aug ‘97 gold futures rose continually to peak near 331 at 2PM. Then Shorts pummeled gold down nearly $4. However, shortly before close zoomed to close +$4.90 at 329.60. SEE Chart:

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:43
D.A. tock.tock.tock>(tock.tock.tock):

Nice little chart. C'mon, don't hold back. What do you call those last few candles? How about 'young bull snorts, wounded bear fights, papa bull kicks butt'? Na, doesn't quite have that delicate oriental flavor.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:41
NJ: Coming from a low, I think it's called a piercing pattern rather than an engulfing pattern. The engulfing pattern marks tops. Given that it's Fri and also the closing bar I don't think it's anything to bet the kid's milk money on. ....... Someone really did run the price up, on the last few trades of the day. Perhaps Glenn will comment on it.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:40
The Breadstown Ladies Entered @ $314>(Entered @ $314):

We've been giving those shorts hell and hope to continue the fun.
Annie Mathilda our gold expert says, first move to $333, then a week of contemplation for next signal.
Opinions. opinions; just like Asshol_s, everybody has one, just that some are bigger and who pound their dingy's if a bit correct.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:35
NJ Candles>(Candles):
Earl : thanks for the chart. At the end, would you call it an engulfing pattern?

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:34
2weeks Good_Post_Miro>(Good_Post_Miro):
Why is that? Is gold a Republican? Seriously - this is very interesting. Does anyone dispute the premise, that the media loves to report negative news on gold, but not positive news? Does anyone know why? Here's a shot - the press stands against all that is absolute. Relative morality is the order of the day. Gold represents an enduring absolute of the sort that the media loves to knock down. If gold were synthetic, they would be in love with it. N'est ce pas?

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:34
John's Sister @we kicked him out of the house>(@we kicked him out of the house):
talk about tact, I think you've cornered the market on that one, JOHNNY boy

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:32
GFD New Paradigm>(New Paradigm):
Miro: I have often heard of news following the markets but never news running away from the market :D

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:30
GFD King Kong vs Godzilla>(King Kong vs Godzilla):
And we have front row seats!

Earl: That's a cool 5 min chart! The next couple of weeks will be facinating to say the least. With rumors of 2,000 ton short postions a lot will be at stake.

RJ: So does today's action quatlify as a high martini day or low martini day :- )

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:27
Miro @spin masters did not say a word about gold today>(@spin masters did not say a word about gold today):
I just did a search on yahoo for any news on gold. Nada, zero, nothing!!
I guess boys are trying to figure out what to say. What a difference in
reporting when gold goes up versus gold going down.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:26

Hey Mom - You'll have to excuse me, I thought you died in the auto accident that
also partially paralyzed my sister six years ago. I'm sure the Kitco corps can
find a way to make fun of that too, as they have such a winning way with tact.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:23
GFD: Per your comments, if GC closes the month +/- 335 the monthly chart will be in a trend change mode. ie, it will form a hammer for July. A noteworthy indicator.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:21
REB na>(na):
For those not perpetually glued to Kitco, it is worth pointing out that the Kitco chart as updated at the close glosses over some last minute dramatics. The shorts had gold hammered down to 326.20 ( or lower ) with five minutes to go, and we closed back up at 328.60. This may be on view at gold eagle. Comments from Glenn and others should be of great nterest tonight.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:20
In response to a steadily diminishing number of requests, here is the day's GC action in 5 min bars. Closing trades were all to the upside.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:18
2weeks My_Pledge>(My_Pledge):
I will not respond to, comment upon, or in any way recognize any posts to this discussion group that are either ( 1 ) inappropriate, or ( 2 ) posted by any individual with a recent history of making inappropriate posts.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:17
GFD Shifts?>(Shifts?):
Tthe dollar has been showing very strong performance but gold is now even stronger. This is a fundamental shift for gold. This along with Bill Buckler's post of a p&f double bottom for gold ( in A$ & US$ ) signals at least a major correction in the gold bear market or a transition to a true bull market.

I expect gold to attempt 340. If it betters this ( which is quite possible if the shorts capitulate ) we could see at least 355. What kind of a correction we get ( at 340 with the shorts - high OI - or 355 without them ) will tell us whether the bear has been beaten ( yet ) .

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:17
Mother hepcat>(hepcat):
Yes, you tell them child! leave and come home as mother still loves you. They don't appreciate you here, you wanted their gold prices to hit bottom, so they would be miserable, just like you are and always been! Yes Johny misery loves company, come to mother Johny Loser, come child!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:10
vronsky Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL Part - III (7 July 1997) >(Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL Part - III (7 July 1997) ):
JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK & HARD SPOT: Nippons To Dump U.S. Treasuries & Buy GOLD! This report displays the Bank of Japan's ( BOJ ) June 27 Balance Sheet and a chart of Foreign Central Bank Holdings of U.S. Treasury Bonds versus the S&P 500 Index:

International financial analyst, ORACLE, has expanded on initial findings of Barron’s Randall W. Forsyth ( Barron’s magazine ) and Internet’s Economist George S. Cole. The Land of the Rising Sun is plagued with financial difficulties, choking on U.S. T-Bond indigestion, exacerbated by a pittance gold position, and a must need to reduce excessive dollar exposure to stabilize Yen/Dollar parity. Due to the BOJ’s Balance Sheet and the chart of Foreign Central Bank Holdings of U.S. Treasuries, the website is a little slow to fully load - HOWEVER, I GUARANTEE YOUR PATIENCE WILL BE AMPLY REWARDED -- there is a starling revelation of the relationship of foreign T-Bond purchases and the speculative and relentless rise in the prices of Wall Street stocks.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 15:05
Mulblaster - You're crazy! The whole issue in that episode is whether Kirk and Spock should honor the pacifism of the Organians and let them be slaugh - oh sorry, wrong discussion group! Please excuse.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:57
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
7/18/97 -- 2:10 PM

Financial travails in developing markets: danger for U.S.?

NEW YORK ( AP ) - It made an early stop in Eastern Europe, lingered in Southeast Asia and touched down in Latin America. It
devalued currencies and roiled stock markets.

A bout of financial turmoil has been wending its way through developing markets, almost lost in the shadows of the booming U.S.
economy and Wall Street euphoria.

So far, the financial unease has been relatively isolated. There has been no ``tequila effect,'' the term used to describe the devastating
impact of Mexico's 1994-95 financial crisis, which spread shock waves around the world. Washington rushed in with a hefty aid package
for its neighbor to contain that crisis.

But there could be dangers for the vibrant American economy lurking in the financial troubles of Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia and
other developing nations, particularly if they spread.

``If a lot more of this continues to happen, it creates more global instability, which is not good for any economy,'' said Anthony Chan,
chief economist at Banc One Investment Advisors Corp. in Columbus, Ohio.

But he added that the developing nations' woes have not reached that level. ``I don't think we're there yet.''

The turmoil in developing nations has been caused partly by huge runups in their debts and trade deficits. Eventually it could stall their
not-so-long-ago high-flying economies, which could hurt exports of U.S. goods and services to those countries.

Currency devaluations, particularly at a time of a strengthening dollar, could help these countries sell more goods abroad but make
American goods much more costly. With many of those countries important buyers of U.S. products, exports could shrink, hitting
companies heavily reliant on overseas sales.

``That is the major risk for the U.S. economy,'' said Cynthia Latta, senior financial economist at DRI/McGraw-Hill in Lexington, Mass.
``I don't see any of those countries causing need for the Mexican-type of bailout from the United States.''

Another impact on the economy could be increased sales by foreign central banks of U.S. Treasury securities they hold in order raise
money to support their currencies in foreign exchange markets.

Such sales would increase the supply of U.S. securities, which in turn could reduce demand and push up interest rates, said Michael
Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America. He predicted the impact, though, ``will be minimal on the U.S. economy.''

Despite the financial jitters, Cynthia Liu, a vice president at Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. in San Francisco, hasn't seen a
rush by investors to pull money out of broad-based mutual funds specializing in foreign investments. Many, she said, have been cautious
about Asia.

But she said the turmoil ``is introducing a very volatile factor into emerging market investing.''

The developing countries' financial woes, some building up for more than a year, worsened in the spring.

In late May, the Czech central bank, beaten down by speculators who decided the koruna currency was overvalued, abandoned its
artificial restraints on the koruna's exchange rate. The koruna, once the most stable currency in post-Communist Eastern Europe, fell

Southeast Asian currencies and stock markets have been hurt the most, particularly in Thailand, which a few years ago was one of the
region's buoyant economies.

Struggling with an economic slowdown and the collapse of an inflated real estate market, the government relaxed its defense of the baht's
exchange rate last month. The baht fell 15 percent vs. the dollar.

Thailand's woes spread to its neighbors as speculators in the foreign-exchange market bet other currencies would fall.

The Philippines quit costly efforts to defend the peso, easing its tight management of the currency and allowing it to depreciate. The
government said Thursday it will have to borrow from the International Monetary Fund.

Indonesia said last week it would allow the ruppiah currency to trade in a wider range, and Malaysia eased its grip on the ringgit.

Stock markets in Singapore and Taiwan also have been jolted.

From Southeast Asia, the turmoil advanced early this week to Brazil, then Poland and Greece. New Zealand's dollar also weakened.

Fears Brazil's currency, the real, would be devalued sent the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange, Latin America's largest, down 15 percent over
the past week. That would be the equivalent of a 1,200-point slide in the Dow Jones industrial average.

One important reason the financial troubles haven't incited a broader climate of fear is they still are seen as relatively confined to the
countries immediately affected.

``The market has become more sophisticated,'' said Marc Chandler, senior currency strategist at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell. He said
there's a realization that developing countries are diverse, and when ``one sneezes, it doesn't mean the others will catch a cold.''

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:44
diogenes in the barrel>(in the barrel):

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:41
vronsky THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)>(THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)):
“Why has the U.S. - fountainhead of antigold sentiment - NOT SOLD any of its gold while encouraging its allies to sell” - Cole’s Market Insights poignant question:

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:40

Larryn - Since you've already made your decision even before my response, what difference does it make what I say?

My, what a fragmented site we have today. How many of these posts sprung
up as a result of my badinage with RJ2 on the other site? I wonder.....

Well, now that everyone is feeling their oats with gold up, I can't wait for
all the talk about everyone feeling their bottoms this weekend. Remember the last
time the bottom was in, after the paradigm shift regarding Hashimoto's
comments at Columbia U? Whoo, that was some bottom, huh? Remember
the last bottom before that, at $337 and could never go lower? What a bottom
that was. Good luck with this bottom, Kitcools. Hope collectively you don't
weight too much.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:34
Byron @ The Comex Close>(@ The Comex Close):
XAU firming up with the Comex Close. So far a good sign.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:31
Vieserre home>(home):
NAILZ: Thank you. EARL: My compliments on a good bottom call.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:25
Mother hepcat>(hepcat):
Oh DJ that's not fair! whats a mother to do! decisions decisions
I love my child! but on the other hand?
DJ I need more time!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:19
Byron @ Testing>(@ Testing):
Would like to see the XAU break through 97.90 + today. Fell short with today high so far. Interesting 15 minutes coming up.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:17
DJ Polls are open>(Polls are open):
Cherokee - I voted last night ( see my 02:34 ) . I'm with you. And my vote has absolutely nothing to do with hepcat's opinion or views. I welcome and relish all input. But I'm mostly a lurker. Let's hear from other principal contributors.

Go gold!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:16
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Looks like so much for silver today. Fell off to just +2. Gold now testing the 328 area. Watch out for any fallback through 327! At this time, it's just kind of looking like traders going home empty for the weekend, like me! I'm now on vacation!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:13
Bernatz de ventadorm le_fou@hitch_up_zee_skirts>(le_fou@hitch_up_zee_skirts):
For ma fren RJ

Ah have been wondering about your position which is short zee gold
an go long zee silvair - woooo - Ah don like eet so much ma fren.
Ah zink you are too much hitch up zee skirt ( and ah don weesh to
criticize you on zat one by dam ) but eet ees not so good for zee
concentrasion in mah experience.
Keep your eye on zee sparrow when zee going he gets narrow.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:08
Scott @thebank>(@thebank):
Eldorado: I justed dropped in before bed, looks as good as last night. You got to love it eh!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:07
LH update>(update):
The rich dark depth of pained souls
Looking with imagined freedom through ugly glass
Rivers deep of worn treasure - hearts stained and strong
Gold up $5.30

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:06
Mother hepcat>(hepcat):
Now you boys, don't you pick on my misundertood child! johny you make me so proud! just remind them who you are. And do our family name proud, child! LOSER! because a Loser you were born and a LOSER you are now and a LOSER you will die. Love you child!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:05
Bernatz de ventadorm Le_fou @ hep_le_chat>(Le_fou @ hep_le_chat):
To all mah frens at Kitko--

Ah Luv zeez monsiour le hepcat. Ah luv heem. Ah want
heem to write more an more - Please don mak heem stop
writing by dam.
He mak me feel so - ah don know - superior .

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:04
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Gold been up as much as 6.20 so far. Aug at 330.9. Maybe we'll see 335 today!Platinum now moving. Up as much as 7.30 so far. Prices now dropping off a bit.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:04
MoreGold @Close ?>(@Close ?):
Are we gonna have a big rally at the end of today to close out the week?
Sure would be nice to see those big time shorts sweating hard over the weekend, for a change....
According to CNN yesterday, maybee 3000 tonnes short, and much of this must be at the lower price range.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:04
langston hughes @joplin>(@joplin):
I wrote this just for you BB, since you're a fan:

The rich dark depth of pained souls
Looking with imagined freedom through ugly glass
Rivers deep of worn treasure - hearts stained and strong
Gold up $5

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:03
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Morning boys: Just got home from the casino on the Gold Coast here in Australia. Won $100 on blackjack and oooh my gold 330 .... everybody wins a prize...... HEHEHE

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 14:03
ross ross@canada>(ross@canada):
Hepcat has every right to post his thoughts. The more points of view the better.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 13:53
Granny My_grandson_Ernie>(My_grandson_Ernie):
My grandson Ernie, God love him, he lives for the Internet. He says, Grandma, it's just about got my name in it. Get it? Anyway, if I could be with my young friends here at Kitco I'd give every one of you a root beer right now! Florence, Emma, and I are up 4% today! What a hayride!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 13:53
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Looks like the 'air' of possibilities has has caught up with the other metals. About time! Aug gold has now reached 329.00. OOPs! 330.00 now!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 13:53
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):
At yesterday's XAU close and today when the HUI broke 141, I got a signal that we had a bear market failure in the XAU and have now started the bull market in gold stocks. IMHO

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 13:48
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- Wish I had those overnight charts too! That was a pretty amazing night last night. I thought it would be 'interesting', but not 'that' interesting! There must be someone here that has them to post.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 13:46
Larryn free speech>(free speech):
CHEROKEE.... I must disagree with banning all that disagree and have unusual posts, such as John. I find it much easier to reach a conclusion when I see what the other viewpoint is. If he bothers you, just skip by his posts. In his case, since he has not answered my questions about putting his own money on the table, I assume that he is blowing smoke. Anyone can make money trading on paper and look good, but the credit belongs to those in the arena, who put their money where their mouth is.

I appreciate the post by RJ, for instance.

In my case, after gold went up through 326 with the CRB up, 30 year bond rate up .05 today, and XAU past its recent resistence, I am now 100% in. Since I am wrong about 60% of the time, I place myself open for juvenile criticism from others if I am wrong. That's OK with me; my technique works for me and that's what counts.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 13:44
Mother hepcat>(hepcat):
jonhny! I love you child! mother will always, love you. Don't forget to brush your sounds like you've been eating a lot of ****

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 13:41

As much as I would like to give credit to the Republicans for all things good, I think today's CRB rise has a lot more to do with lack of expected rain in key farm states.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 13:29
Larryn going up>(going up):
One factor not discussed this morning is the possible effect that the Republican Party turmoil may have had on this market. One view of the excellent economy and booming stock market ( and low gold ) is that the Republicans have effectively caused Clinton to move so far right that there is no fear of Democratic/Liberal policies messing up a decreasing budget deficit and other good results.

However, with an ineffectual opposition, I suspect that there are enough money managers who fear Gephart/Hillary having more influence. The sudden jump today in the CRB and drop in the 30 year bond didn't just happen. With this conclusion based partially on a political worldview, I expect some other viewpoints.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 13:23
bb fisher fyi@com>(fyi@com):
to all:

to adequately appreciate where hepcat 'is comin from' re-read or read anew the works of langston hughes. to my mind a wonderfully evocative poet from the first half of the 20th century. ole langston pretty much has hepcat sized up and after reading this marvelous poet you will as well!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 13:21
bb fisher fyi@com>(fyi@com):
to all:

to adequately appreciate where hepcat 'is comin from' re-read or read anew the works of langston hughes. to my mind a wonderfully evocative poet from the first half of the 20th century. ole langston pretty much has hepcat sized up and after reading this marvelous poet you will as well!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 13:19

Cherokee - I love it. I would definitely vote for kicking off everyone
who has ever exaggerated on this site. Let's see, who would go

Hepcat - Defrocker of silly old rabble rousers who hide behind
sobriquets and emoticons !;- )

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 13:17
Skylark More to Come>(More to Come):
Taking a look at the futures contracts on DBC, everyone is up except energies and cattle with CRB over a 100 basis points. A hedge fund is rumored to be covering gold and shorting bonds. Perhaps the inflation outlook as turned.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 13:12

Bib Time/Big Time Tom - Don't flatter yourself. You didn't get my goat.
You asked a question last night, Tom ( or was it a hypothetical? ) . I answered
the question. At what point did I attack you? I attacked your method of
asking a question without wanting to incorporate an answer. It's like when
you read a book and don't let the author's words interfere with your conception of what the author is saying.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 13:02
cherokee @enough-is-enough!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!>(@enough-is-enough!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!):
re: hep-rat-cat

during his usual diatribe yesterday, he indicated he had retired at
the age of 32 years young. this is a possibility except for the
OTHER statement he made about working for the gov't at their
center for disease control ( cdc ) several weeks ago. some-one
alluded to him and a nosler bullet getting together for a
party. this comment caused him to threaten that same
individual with intervention by the entity he worked

this gutter snipe is nothing but a liar and provacteur,
and should be banned from this site.


how long will you allow this to continue? YOU are the only
one who can stop this. it detracts from this site, and is only
going to get worse as he spreads his venom to all who are
valid contributors.

i cast my vote for permanent censure and ex-communication.

being a gold bear has nothing to do with what he is doing here.

how does the rest of the kitco-ites vote? sound off, so bart
will have consensus for some much needed fly-swatting!

cherokee!; ) launcher-of-flaming-cyber-arrows for the good of
good people on the best web-site in the free world.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 13:01
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Now that's what I call a 'nice' lunch time! Came back to find that it broke North and not South. Nice indead! Can't say the same for crude though. Fell back through the down trend line and stopped me out. Didn't cost much though. Now we'll see what it does from its' 50% retracement area. Silver not reacting as expected at the 4.30 level. Could be wanting to see 4.32 after all? Platinum finally showing a little life. Got to get at least the silver behaving more properly in my estimation. Unfortunately, I'll be on vacation next week and won't be able to play. Today is all I get in the futures for a week.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 12:58
Big Time Tom Got your goat, didn't I?>(Got your goat, didn't I?):

To John@hepcat: Wow, I really did get your goat, didn't I! But since I am unable to make much sense of your latest ramblings and see no relevance in them to anything I have written, I'll just sign off and let you have the final words. So go ahead and blast away, my friend. Believe me, I have seen sophomoric ravings before, and I always get more of a kick out of them than I should.


Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 12:50
RT @GCQ7 overnight chart?>(@GCQ7 overnight chart?):
anyone know where I could find a chart of the overnight action in August Gold ? it was whipsawed pretty violently last night, but spot held steady.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 12:47
Bart, re: GVC ( @Bart ) : Good suggestion!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 12:41
A little humor while we watch Gold soar!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 12:35
Front Panda & BillD>(Panda & BillD):

Thanks guys....

This increase is just running away from me. I was hoping to get in just before 4:00pm with Gold less than 326 but it seems it's hit and staying already. In my books, 326 is now the floor so I solemnly retract my dead cat bounce. Of course, if it does bounce, please ignore all of the above as I'll deny every having typed it!


Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 12:35
MoreGold @Hmmmmm>(@Hmmmmm):
BART, must be a mistake, you quote shows a day high of 339.40 Gold and 4.84 Silver !!!!
Sure looks good while its there.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 12:24
GVC @Bart>(@Bart):
BART: two queries:
1 ) could you give us an update on the development of the search engine?

2 ) future enhancement request: limiting the number of posts that load upon entering the site to the latest 'x' number with the option of being able to manual scroll back further if needed after logging in?

Many thanks for a great site!!!.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 12:18
panda @>(@):
EBN commodity board looks KEWELLL ( cool ) !

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 12:16
panda @!>(@!):
Yesterdays data got cut off at lunch time. Someday I'll get this UPS working!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 12:14
panda @R/T>(@R/T):

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 12:07
NJ tick tick?>(tick tick?):
D.A. No longer tick tick. DGSE is reporting gold up 2.3 to 325.75.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 11:58
TO EARL @kitco>(@kitco):


Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 11:57
D.A. tick.tick.tick>(tick.tick.tick):

Precious creeping ever so slightly higher. Every little bout of selling has been bought. I know so well the feeling of being on the otherside, looking for an opportunity to get out, but it never happens.

Watch for 'The Return of the Palladium Monster ( Part II in 3D ) ' its coming to a trading desk near you.

Being the gold bug that I am, here's hoping for a big close into the weekend. BTW, the dollar doesn't seem too pleased with weakness in the financials. The race for the bottom is on.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 11:51
NEWS @from London>(@from London):
LONDON, July 18 ( Reuter ) - Bullion prices seemd to be steadying on Friday after rising on fund short-covering in New York, leading dealers and analysts to ponder the likely extent of the recovery.

``The bulls are jumping for joy and forecasting ( a price of ) $330.00 per ounce. That might be possible but $340 and $350 look less likely,'' said bullion market analyst Ted Arnold at Merrill Lynch.

Gold opened in Europe at $323.35/$323.75 up from $319.30/$319.80 at the Thursday close in London and fixed at $323.45 up from $319.40 on Thursday.

It was the highest fixing since immediately before the Reserve Bank of Australia announced it had sold 167 tonnes of gold from its reserves during the previous six months and plunged the gold price to around 12-year lows.

The price fall was driven by the investment funds massively extending existing short positions in anticipation of prices falling to levels under $300.00.

But that sentiment has dissipated this week after physical buying of gold provided a base for the price between $315.00 and $318.00.

The recent low was $313.60 plumbed on July 7.

``Gold is reacting much as expected. It has reached a consolidation point on strong Middle Eastern demand after the funds had done what they could,'' a dealer said.

Gold reached a high of $325.70 during the Asian trading day but came off in choppy trade near the close leaving some dealers expecting it to settle in a $323.50-$318.00 range.

A break through $325.00 and the next resistance at $326.60 would be needed to take gold to higher levels. Some interim support should be available at $322.50, technical analysts said.

Short term lease rates have fallen reflecting increased market liquidity as fund short positions were covered.

The implied one month rate was 2.15 per cent on Friday down from 2.62 on Wednesday. The three month rate was also trimmed to 2.03 percent from 2.21 percent.

A dealer noted that the buying season for Eastern festival and post harvest demand and Western Christmas buying was only a couple of months away and usually stimulated prices.

Silver responded with gold adding six cents from the close to $4.26/$4.28 after its downside held under pressure earlier.

Platinum was also firmer at $406.00/$409.00 up $4.50 and palladium at $179.00/$182.00 was $4.00 firmer.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 11:49
NEWS @four ewe>(@four ewe):

HONG KONG, July 18 ( Reuter ) - Gold extended its rally well

into Asia's Friday morning session on buying from Tokyo and

shortcovering in Hong Kong, while physical demand retreated on

the price jump, bullion traders said.

Hong Kong spot gold prices took their cue from New York's

upward trend and touched a high of US$325.50/60 an ounce before

settling at $324.75/325.25 at 0414 GMT.

Tokyo buying pushed gold up to above $325 per ounce and

that sparked some profit-taking, said one dealer.

On Thursday, New York gold ended at $323.50/00, jumping as

funds and trade and commission houses bought healthy volumes.

COMEX floor traders said John W. Henry & Co managed futures

funds were seen leading the shortcovering in COMEX gold.

The higher prices had shooed away physical demand in Asia,

dealers said.

Today the market is higher, so physical buying is very

quiet. It's too high for buyers but demand may kick in somewhat

if gold drops one or two dollars, a trader said.

Dealers saw gold trading within a broader price band of

$322.00 to $327.00 over the coming week after days of being

stuck between $315 and $320.

Before gold moved up in New York on Thursday, sales in Asia

had been strong, Singapore dealers said.

The sales over the past few days have been very

encouraging. People were taking advantage of the price and they

were really buying, a jeweller in Singapore said.

But demand remained dogged by currency woes.

All of these currency fluctuations is not good for gold,

another bank dealer said.

Speculators have attacked the Thai baht, the Philippine

peso, the Malaysian ringgit and the Indonesian rupiah over the

past few weeks, with the baht and the peso forced to devalue.

We're experiencing a mini-boom in gold demand at the

moment. I think it will last one to two months. We'll be slowly

tapering off and then it will pick up towards October and the

holiday season,the jeweller said.

Singapore premiums were quoted at around 65-85 U.S. cents an

ounce over spot London prices from 70-75 cents last week,

dealers said.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 11:49
Doc Duke Albuquirky>(Albuquirky):
Vronsky: Thank you for ( re? ) organizing your editorials so that we primitive graphics-off browser users can get to them.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 11:47
NJ: If you have it available, would post Jerry Favor's URL. Thanks.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 11:39
NJ Princeton>(Princeton):
Milhouse and IDT :

Some clarification is in order. PEI calls 313.3 'vital' support. They have two time windows for THE low before gold starts on a major bull market lasting into 2003. The time windows are the week of July 7, 1997 and, failing that, the first quarter of 1998. If the July low is confirmed with a weekly close over 343.1 they feel that a rally back during the summer becomes possible.

A july low will also coincide with the market top call by Jerry Favors. He is one rare anaylist who who has not hedged his call with any ifs and buts.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 11:39
Steve - Perth>(
Gold goes better with Coke...
APOLOGY: Colin Barnett is only the WA Resources Development Minister ( thankfully ) . He is Deputy Leader of the WA Liberal Party, not Deputy Premier. As if anyone cares, but am correcting this for the record.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 11:31
Steve - Perth>(
Western Australian Gold Royalty may be postponed.
Colin Barnett ( Deputy Premier of WA ) may be trying to get Prime Minister John Howard off the hook before his scheduled visit/speech to the now infamous Diggers & Dealers conference in Kalgoorlie soon.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 11:28
panda @>(@):
Front, sorry got to run, but here is info.

PA=U7 L=V7 GC=Q7 SI=U7

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 11:19
Steve - Perth>(
An interesting twist on splits

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 11:19
BillD Silver...from hell?>(Silver...from hell?):
Milhouse...can you pleae explain the silver....from hell comment.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 11:06
Milhouse Princeton>(Princeton):

IDT - re your 17/7 21:22 - the latest info I have from Princeton was written before the big sell-off and doesn't provide anything additional to what I have previously posted. However, another Kitco contributer ( NJ ) e-mailed me regarding some info he had received on 15 July. In summary, they are expecting any rally in gold at this time to be short lived . Minor support is at 313 and if this level is penetrated on any down move then it will drop to 280. Gold needs to close above 343 to confirm that a low is in place. Silver remains the commodity from hell.

Regards, Milhouse

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 11:04
Steve - Perth>(
DONALD & PANDA: You'll love this....
NZ Dollar in turmoil, Aussie Dollar holding.
IMF & US Treasury disturbed by the turmoil in emerging financial markets

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 11:01
vronsky “The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy”>(“The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy”):
Dr. Geoffrey P.Miller, Professor of Law and Director, Center for Study of Central Banks, New York University Law School - presents erudite and comprehensive study. SEE Editorials:

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 11:01
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Silver appears nearing the point of being able to make a 'move' up. Watch for Sept. numbers showing above 4.28-4.30.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 10:57
BillD Front>(Front):

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 10:53
Front Panda:>(Panda:):


A quick question if I might.

I know that the GCQ7 is correct for getting the current Gold BUT is SIN7 right for silver and PAN7 right for Pal? What is it for Plat?


Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 10:46
Steve - Perth>(
Somewhere over the Rainbow....Sydney columnist on Gold situation
TED: Please do me a favour by not responding in any way shape or form to this Hepcat character. The interchange isn't remotely interesting. Obviously has no serious information either. A total waste of time. I'm sure there are plenty of other Kitco people who would like to respond directly to you Ted, without his input. You missed his unbelievable outbursts while you were away. You should go back in the archive & have a look for yourself. All he is doing is filling my computer cache up unnecessarily every time I update the postings.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 10:40
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Dow down 140. XAU and HUI holding up quite well at this point, neither being down a point. Metals flat. It'll be an interesting day!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 10:39
I AM GOING to marry Panda...DOW down 132 with big neg TIC

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 10:30
gkfjgkljgklgjlgjjggjj jkjkgjggtg14g4ggsgdgg7gfgdfgdf;,h>(jkjkgjggtg14g4ggsgdgg7gfgdfgdf;,h):
Hello Folks:

IMO there is nothing but air in the gold market above $335/oz.

It has taken a 17 yr. [1980-1997] gold bear market to get the Swiss and OZ out of the mkt..

It took a 14 yr. bear market in stocks [US] 1968 to 1982 to chase everyone out of US stocks.

Look out above!!!!!!!!!!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 10:24
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
EB -- How should I know? I'm just a small fry in a large sea of sharks. That means I'd rather be following the sharks than being in front of them. If they turn, I'll turn right behind them.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 10:24
Front John>(John):


Thank you for your posting to Strad concerning me. It is evident that I have been placed in a no-win situation. In normal times, I would just ignore your response and do as many have done in the past and just pass over your posts, as ignoring seems to be the only way to get past things unlikable. Let me be quite frank please. I don't know you. I have no idea whether you're white/black pink or green, I don't know how old you are. I know nothing about you. All I have gathered is that you seem to be posting from the UNC medical centre. You seem to be well educated, but at the same same time, want to intrude on others' events and happenings. You obviously, know nothing of me. To say those attacking things towards me was uncalled for, however, if I let them go, it will be seen by you, and possibly others, as agreement in kind. I do not agree, and so must respond to your prompts now. Surfice it to say, you are incorrect. I did nothing of what you refer to, and find it offensive that you would even think you had the right to say those things about someone you know absolutely nothing about. In short, Who made you God?

I continue to not appreciate ( not for any benefit to you I might add ) others who do not respond often enough to questions and that some of their posts are very vague. It is only my opinion. It does not make it a correct opinion nor does it give me the right to attack anyone. That is my opinion, BUT I have not / nor will not, EVER say this in a mean spirited way towards anyone, including you. I try to respect everyones opinion but I do not suffer fools well. It is a character flaw of mine and I've grown to recognise it through my years. However, it has stood me well since I tend to surrond myself with wise/wiser people. After my post to you the other day, I re-read it and realised it was too harsh. I could have, perhaps should of, left off the quoted section. For that I apologise, however, to have received such vindictive from you in response makes me wonder if, at this moment, you deserve a sorry. I'll give one anyways since I wish this matter to be dropped and yet, not avoided.

Yes John, I am a professional investor. I do make my living in this manner. I have explained my methods and purposes to this group many times. I also retired at a young age, but that should mean nothing to you as you have the rest of your life in front of you apparently, as a doctor. From a personal point though John, as Strad said in his note, your attitude did seem to become a lot nicer after 325 had been reached. It has now degraded again though, I'm sorry to say, and that was what I was trying to convey to you in my post. I perhaps should have made that clearer, but I really did think you would see the message and realise that now someone, without any grudge, was saying something. Obviously you did not read it that way and it was my fault for not being more direct or even just saying nothing and ignoring you completely. I don't want to do that since some of your insights are very good, others times .... well, let's just say you should have thought about them more. But that's you and I respect that and chose not to bypast your thoughts.

In reference to posting under other names etc., I have not. In reference to the TTFN, I find that others have taken that as their signature. I thought it would show it was me but unfortunately, it has been taken over by others. I don't mind, actually I guess imitation is a form of flattery and that's very nice but to infer that because someone else posted using that and that it WAS me is taking quite a streatch at the truth.

John, I find you intelligent, thoughtful, and very self reliant however, you need to let the water run off your back a bit more to get along with the rest of the world. If you really don't want to get along, it's going to be a long and difficult ride my friend. Sometimes you're like a dog with a bone. Make your point, state your reasons and please stop acting as if you're right leaving no leaway for other opinions. No-one likes that John, and that's as clear as I can say it.


Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 10:18
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
I notice the XAU and HUI have turned just slightly negative. Probably in sympathy with stoxs in general. But if this begins to translate to gold, watch for breakdown below 324 Aug ( providing it happens at all ) .

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 10:09
EB you make me watching long grass Blow in the wind>(you make me watching long grass Blow in the wind):
Eld. 14:53-5:44 What's it really going to do? +5.40,+6.30,347.2,321,321.5,323,325...spike up, down...just don't be suprised over anything it might do

Please, what is it going to do? UP or Down...oh...FAGIDABOUTIT! the let the BIG DOG EAT! yum yum


Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 10:09

Bib Time Tom - I'm sorry I didn't get your handle right the first time.
It's clear you have an agenda, so that anything I post will be reworked
into your John is confused framework. If Gold goes to 370 and then
back to 325 by July 29, it would indeed be interesting. If a pig could
sing, that would also be interesting. For a buyer of physical gold, when
to buy is quite important, since gold is not immediately liquid. For example,
Mooney for the past eight months has recommended buying K-rands or Maples
each month, something I have vehemently disagreed with. On K-2, someone
keeps advocating buying St. Gaudens, again, a very bad idea in the current
market. Who was more confused over the past eight months? Had you
listened to me, you would have more in your bank account.
Bib Time Tom, this is something I'm very much not confused about - 95%
of the people who come fresh to this site are already thinking about buying
gold, and just need some confirmation that this is a good idea. From
being parked on this site for one year, we know that any time the question
is posed, Mooney will respond in the affirmative. We have heard for the
last six months that the benefit-risk ratio has never been better, yet all one
has to do is wait another day or another week and it gets exponentially better.
I recognize that once people get an idea in their heads, they are not going
to listen to an opposing view ( you are a perfect example, Bib Time Tom ) so
I tell people go ahead and buy now if you absolutely must, if your oxygen
supply will be cut off if you are denied this folly, but buy the absolute cheapest
form of gold you can so that the lesson they learn won't be so expensive.
At the same time, I indicate very clearly that they will be losing money if they
buy ( if they bought ) anytime over the last year.
At the closest, largest coin/bullion shop to me, they charge $30 over spot
for Palladium ballerinas. They buy back these same coins at $30 under spot.
This is a ripoff, and an overblown example of what you can expect with
reselling bullion gold, but, to take your hypothetical, walk into any local
coin dealer if the market goes up to $370 over the next week and ask them
if they'll pay $350 for your gold which you purchased for $340 when the market
was $325. They would be stupid to pay this much, given that it's been parked at $325 for the previous two weeks. You'd be lucky to get back what you paid
for it. Money in a savings account makes better interest than physical gold.
Here is my message stripped of confusion, Bib Time Tom:


You won't miss out. You didn't miss out yesterday. You didn't miss out
from last month. You didn't miss out from last year.

To whoever wanted to up the ante to $1 off and six months vacation, and
accused me of being yellow - I didn't see you post any numbers, big talker.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 10:03
BIG negative TIC on DJIA....dropping fast at the moment...hum, Panda maybe you looked into the future?

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 09:54
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
After retesting the 323 area from the top, Aug gold is now testing 325 from just above and just below. Could break either way. Silver and platinum are flat!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 09:38
panda @?>(@?):
Then again, a trade war could be ugly. They might sell our T-Bonds in retribution. :- ) )

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 09:27
panda @>(@):
Whither the Irish punt?

All this over airplanes? What next? Smoot-Hawley tariffs? :- ) )

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 09:26
Lan Man @ItsProbable>(@ItsProbable):
Could the recent runup in high-tech stox have anything to due with the capitulation of goldbugs selling the pm and their gold stox and jumping on the gravy train? Wonder how many out there did exactly that...

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 09:18
Venerable market analyst provides current trading insights: “...we top in the next two weeks. Not THE top, a top.” SEE INGER LETTER FORECAST - July 17, 1997 Report:

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 09:04
panda @labor?>(@labor?):
BillD, D.A. -- Something is bound to happen today, if for no other reason than I won't be able to watch this cup of milk turn sour! Today will be one of those days. Can't be watching for most of the day, so...

Haven't seen any trucks or boats, or even planes with PA/PL on the manifest. Hmmmm, must be for security reasons.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 09:03
Mooney @RJ>(@RJ):
RJ - Considering the content of your 23:16 of last night, I now understand why my simple opinion, that contradicted your previous stated opinion that Gold would hit $275, drew such a heated response. If I had so much riding on such a prediction and such a system, I might also get a little uptight and fly off the handle if someone dared to contradict my 'written in stone' prediction. FWIW :- )

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 08:48
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn):
Ted, here it is; a bit late but better than never. May gold shine today and may the paper be shredded.

An old lady is rocking away the last of her days on her front porch, reflecting on her long life, when all of a sudden a fairy godmother appears in front of her and grants her 3 wishes ( she had no lamps to rub you see ) .

Well now says the old lady, i guess I would like to be really rich ****poof*** her rocking chair turns to solid gold. And gee, I guess I wouldn't mind being a young, beautiful princess. ***poof*** she turns into a beautiful young woman. Your third wish? asked the fairy

Just then the woman's favorite and adored cat wanders across the porch in
front of them. Ooh, dear, can you change him into a handsome prince? We've always been so close. she asks. ****poof**** there before her stands a young man more handsome than anyone could possible imagine.

She stares at him, smitten. With a smile that makes her knees knock ( not unlike Bill Clinton's ) , he saunters across the porch and whispers
in her ear:

Bet you're sorry you had me neutered.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 08:43

Perhaps it will be that a little 'profit taking' might turn into a 'small correction' leading to a healthy 'intermediate correction' followed by a 'nasty sharp decline' engendering a 'gut wrenching freefall' and finally fathering an 'all out ( *&* ( & ) & crash'.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 08:43
BilD White Metals>(White Metals):
Panda...see anything this morning on the Whites...Pa or Pl Any Russkie Trucks in sight? ; )

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 08:29
panda @>(@):
For anyone who cares, NDX is down 1500 on Globex. They have one hour to turn it around. This could be interesting. Nah, just another bull fake out, besides, with competing currency devaluations...... Oh hell, just buy the S&P500. :- ) )

Don't worry, be HAPPY! :- ) )

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 08:14
panda @boredom>(@boredom):
Wow! One hour between posts, in the morning no less! Well, looks like another 'downer' Friday again. I have but one request, only one. Will somebody in South America or the Pac Rim area devalue or default big time please? Life is sooooo boring with the stock bull going up and up and up... Perhaps a 500 point down day on the Dow, just to liven things up.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 08:03
Miles Sheller @TED>(@TED):
TED: I think you're right...I have miles to go before I sleep!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 07:03
panda @?>(@?):
Here's some food for thought. Russian gold story. Gets interesting towards the bottom. Russian's buying gold instead of saving Dollars? Nah, could never happen! :- ) )

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 06:33
TED @oops>(@oops):
Miles Sheller= Mike Sheller....and ice=RICE!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 06:31
TED @milesheller>(@milesheller):
Mornin Mike! Retire at 18....I can't beat that! You must have been pretty young in NAM....EBN Gold down .40 and Nikkei down a few hundred...Good morning JIN!....In case anyone is worried there WON'T be any repeats of last night as it was a one-time is too short!..The ocean is so calm I've got to jump in the kayak...

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 06:11
Mike Sheller correction mode>(correction mode):
Sorry gang...meant to say big spread bellies. No offense to the portly.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 06:08
Mike Sheller @the charts>(@the charts):
Bonds still above 113 - interest rates keep falling on our head...stox will get support long as the 30 year stays in a breakout mode. Gold has closed its gap - no more no less - but G&S technicals look very good, all charts have nice bid spread bellies in their moving averages. This usually arrests a decline for a while. IF there's more to come on the downside, it will take a few weeks of working off congestion/support here to begin probing new lows. Silver finds LOOOONG term major support at 4.09 - 4.15. Below that range, and it's major deflation time.
PLATINUM: Has completed its return move. Oct PT must knife thru congestion between 400-410 to resume its merry way. Then, at this angle of acceleration, a quick run to 430-435 is not out of the question.
I say 434.50 midday, August 12, and then I can retire at 18.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 06:00
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold down .20 and Silver still unch.....Am off to read the Journal and Tort.....WAKE UP...and give us a joke!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 05:55
TED @eldorado>(@eldorado):
Mornin Eldorado! You are up early and actually I hope you're right about a possible pull-back as I'm lookin to buy more....The higher the DOW goes and the lower Gold goes the more it is a no-loss situation to jump in...
that is if you have no expiration dates....With major gold shares at these depressed levels I'm convinced that within the next 6 months or so one can easily make at least 40% on their money....if not much more...It's only a matter of time until money managers see the bargain basement prices while almost everything else is grossly overpriced...

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 05:44
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Ted -- As nice as the move has been, it is still very possible for the Aug gold to quickly retreat to the 321 to 321.5 area before whatever else may happen. Of course, it would have to drop below the 323 area first! Watch that area and of course the 325 area for decent penetration. Just don't be surprised over anything it might do.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 05:23
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold down .45 and Silver unch....and we had such a good start in Asia last night...could RJ be right?

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 04:32
Bas Asian Buying>(Asian Buying):
I posted on Monday comments by Harry Schulz ( noted goldbug ) that a large Asian syndicate was shorting gold and is now be ready to buy in again. Maybe he was right - could it be BT? Maybe Harry is BT?

By the way, I predicted over a week ago $325 gold by today on Hotcopper Forum in Oz. Suppose I get no credit on this forum.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 03:21
DJ No faith!>(No faith!):
John D. - If I really believed that theory I would have bet the farm in the last couple of days. I didn't. Still the timing of the spike down and the jump back up is quite suspicious. Has anyone really confirmed who drove it down?

Must hit the hay. Good night all.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 03:13
EB I did say 325-July 29...but I did not say what it would do in between...>(I did say 325-July 29...but I did not say what it would do in between...):
It will spike lower...jog higher...wander higher...languish lower...explode higher...dive lower...blitz higher...bungie lower/higher...skip lower...bolt higher...wait we're only talking 8 days...c'mon johnH...big deal...let's jump out on the limb a little bit?

What is the SPECIFIC number for platinum on July 29th.

Oh, and no thanks on the metal offer. You are too kind.

AWAY!?!?!?!? i think not


Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 02:59
John Disney>(
For DJ
If there was a conspiracy, they didnt cut me in on it. Sure does look
like it though - and they got a 2 year deal with no increases unless
justified by increase in productivity.
For those interested in DDEEP, I think its pretty safe now -
that is to the extent gold is safe. Were at or below 10 year lows for DD, Blyvy, and Buffels despite fact that at about 370$/oz the group would
earn about 2 rand /share and be valued at maybe 3 times what it is now.
Also their reserves would cost much less than 10$ per ounce, versus
over 150 $/oz for Barrick - Buffels entry still shows 10 % advantage.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 02:44
DJ Missing address>(Missing address):
That last post directed at John Disney.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 02:43
DJ Conspiracy confirmed>(Conspiracy confirmed):
Labor agreement in finalized, gold price rises, gold stocks rise. Hmmmm?

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 02:38
cda John, I'll say a hyper-bullish 330 on the 29th o' July...>(John, I'll say a hyper-bullish 330 on the 29th o' July...):
But, since I post so rarely, maybe my punishment for being off more than $5 is to have to post once per month. Or, have to watch the DOW creep over 8200 before the end of July.

Think less of your self and others will think more of you.

Not retired, love my job, not enough time to post, good jokes Tort.

John, take it easy, no one is betting their life on what you or anyone else posts here. Subtle accuracy screams so loud you need not use a horn to announce it.

Regards all,

Local time - before midnight

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 02:34
DJ Disgusted>(Disgusted):
I was traveling Thursday and just finished all of 7/17 Kitco in one sitting. I found the discussion generated from the market action extremely interesting and of real value. Thanks again to all ( but one ) .

However, one thing is clear. Bart -- I know this isn't a democracy, but if it were, and I had a vote, I would vote that you adjust your filter to make hepcat disappear with the rest of the coffee grounds ( no offense to coffee investors intended ) . He adds a bitter taste to the strong powerful brew that Kitco otherwise provides. Any value and insight he might offer is totally outweighed by his immature preenings. He is a distraction and detracts from the value of this forum.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 02:08
RJ ....>(....):
NJ - They are just numbers and do not represent a specific targets but rather levels I look for. I have detailed my reasons to expect these levels in prior posts.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 01:41
RJ That's all, Goodnight.>(That's all, Goodnight.):
Savage - To oversimplify a bit: I sold gold short from 350 down to 336. As the market dropped, I peeled of my profitable trades. I would then look to reshort after another rally. Likewise I buy the dips, never committing all resources. Should the price drop further, I layer in another trade. I spread the risk across a price range. This will put some limits on profits but offers great protection. I never lost a client yet for only making 12% on a trade instead of 20%.

Any player in this market will inevitably get caught is something like the July 3 Australian announcement. The rest of the world had two days to trade before the US could even respond. By then, the damage was done. A properly hedged position should offer protection against these unforeseen occurrences. When hedging one metal against the other, realize that all metals don’t necessarily move in tandem. With a long silver / short gold, you can usually depend on silver moving faster than gold on a breakout. With proper limits and stops, I can usually find profits in any market. The key is to minimize risk to survive the unpleasant surprises so that you are there for the pleasant ones.

I put in new shorts at 322, and today at 324. The trend is down, so I will continue to layer in shorts with hedges to protect against a sudden rise.

Like I said, this is an oversimplification, but this might give you an idea of how I trade. There is something else that is more nebulous. After years in these markets one gets a feel for trading patterns. This sympathy is short sighted and sees only hours or sometimes days. This comes only with experience. I have mentioned before how I can sometimes tell how many martinis the traders had at lunch by the way the afternoon prices move. There are somewhat more predictable patterns one sees on option expiry or first delivery notice. Trading decisions should be made taking the market as a whole and not with just a narrow focus.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 01:25
NJ Numbers>(Numbers):
RJ : I was referring to your 23:26. How did you pick those numbers?

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 01:15
RJ >():
NJ - I'm not sure what you are trying to say?

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 01:11
RJ Home is where the ............ is.>(Home is where the ............ is.):
WW- Newport Beach is as fashionably self absorbed and pretentious as ever, only now with noticeably more silicone and hairplugs. We have all read recently that Hong Kong has the highest per capita ownership of Roles Royce than anywhere else in the world. I have it on good authority that when California finally drops into the Pacific, Porsche and Mercedes will cease production of all convertibles.

The weather is indeed forever beautiful, and I do enjoy kayaking on Newport Bay, or Inline skating along the boardwalk. From my office window I can see the rolling Newport hills and Fashion Island in the distance. When in need of an ocean sunset, it is waiting for me less than 5 minutes from my office.

I grew up in Seattle and I do miss the trees and lakes, but I love my job and am able to overlook the more vacuous nature of So Cal. By the way, I drive neither a Mercedes or a Porsche.

The Registry is still there, I pass it daily on the drive to work. You need a reservation and a major credit card for peanuts and appetizers there now. Never seen one of those big black mosquitoes, maybe they where all eaten by those big black June bugs that come out in the heady days of August. Why aren’t they called August bugs? Maybe they are just fashionably late.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 01:05
NJ Numbers>(Numbers):
RJ : People on this site are quite aware that numbers like 325,300, 275 and 250 are being talked about in the media, by known names such as Wayne Angell, Michael O'Neill and Andy Smith. You are free to cite any of those numbers but, if it is your own analaysis of the market, it would help if you include an explanation of how you arrived at it. Otherwise, there is nothing wrong with attributing it to the original source.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 00:53
Savage reply>(reply):
RJ: Trading strategy; I wasn't being sarcastic.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 00:49
RJ And soon now, as before, only whenever then, you'll see how...........>(And soon now, as before, only whenever then, you'll see how...........):
Savage - A twisted and loathsome abomination of a phrase, I admit. Was your query regarding trading strategy or my occasional torture of grammar?

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 00:44
RJ I view gold a bit differently>(I view gold a bit differently):
Paths - I have gone into great detail in previous posts about my reasons to believe gold will continue to decline. Rather than repeat, let me refer you to my own @ RJ ( Gold for the rest of 1997 ) Jun 12 1997 03:12. Other posts surrounding those dates can give you a more complete picture of my views about gold.

I think that gold has taken a psychological hit and fear continues to be the overriding emotion. Count on it, you will see more well timed announcements of ECB sales. Just wait until Germany or Switzerland jump into the fray.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 00:44
Savage (?):
RJ: how do you layer in and out, both long and short....? Thanx.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 00:41
VIESERRE and ALL....With great potential also comes great risk...VIESERRE, your summation @22:14 should be copied and framed by all. ALL...if you are phasing into the market on a fully paid for basis, you will be happy over the long haul over the purchases made today and tomorrow....If you are about to drop the last shoe or fire the last volley, beware....even as is darkest before the dawn, more darkness is yet to come...

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 00:32
WW @NE>(@NE):
RJ :When the weather is that good all the time you cant help but have better manners. Everyone was pleasantly and shallowly friendly, but it is better than the honest overt rudeness of the East. When I was a single youngster in 1986 I stayed with one of my female acquaintances at Registry Hotel in Newport. A bowl of peanuts and appetizers was like $60. However, this was not what was shocking, we left the sliding glass door openand were eaten alive by barely visible black misquitoes/ it was unbelieveable. Is the hotel still there? It was just across the street from John Wayne Airport. We stayed there when I lived in Reseda for the Laguna Niguel Arts festival they hold down there in Orange County.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 00:28
nailz VIESERRE @22;14>(VIESERRE @22;14):
ALL.....If you are purchasing fully paid for physical holdings in the metals now for the long haul you are OK.....If using margin or if you can get caught in a squeeze, you need to read VIESERRE @22;14......Read it VERY CAREFULLY....He said it very well.....

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 00:23
Bib Time Tom Sorting through the confusion>(Sorting through the confusion):

John@hepcat wrote: TOM - I hope no one follows my advice for anything other than physical gold. My prediction that gold will be at $325 on July 29 indicates that it's not going to do much interesting for the rest of the month. Sorry that I can't predict day-to-day, TOM. The short-term trend is still down. This hasn't changed.

Hmmm. I find myself wondering, John, why I should follow your advice about anything including the price of physical gold. You do, after all, seem to live in a world of confusion. Contrary to what you say, for example, your prediction that gold will be at $325 on July 29 carries no implication ( and in no way indicates ) that gold is not going to do much interesting for the rest of the month. If gold were to spike up to $370 an ounce and then drop to $325 on July 29th, that would be quite consistent with your prediction and quite interesting as well. As for your statement that the short-term trend is still down, you owe us some explanation of how you could possibly know that. Certainly the short term trend has been down in the recent past. But whether it is still down today depends upon what happens in the future. If the price goes back down in a day or two, then you are right. But if it continues up, then the short term trend that began on July 7th and includes today is up. That is just one more illustration of why talk about short term trends usually conceals a good deal of confusion.


Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 00:21
RJ: Since you must have some 'feel' for the number of others who operate in the same mode; I better understand your source of confidence vis a vis the future course of the accursed yellow. .... My choice of examples for alternate vehicles was not based on market considerations but merely for illustrative purposes.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 00:18
RJ - Just wondering, Is your view of $300 gold based on a fundamental, technical analysis or experience? I thought that last time gold went to 286$, the consumption for purposes such as jewellry was much less than currently, which suggests a little more support at this low. Also Caplan writes about commercial buying. Also with 12 years of low but minor inflation, a low of 286 adjusted over 12 years would be something like current prices

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 00:17
when you go out in public
don't show your 'silver'

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 00:14
WW - I cannot argue with your assessment. We do, however have better manners.

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 00:11
RJ Naked as a Jaybird..........>(Naked as a Jaybird..........):
Earl - You have correctly surmised the general state of undress of my example shorts. As for hedge positions, any other metal may also be the long leg. The market value for the larger leg determines the size of the smaller leg. I have clients long PL and short gold. I would not accept a PL or PA short in today’s market. Let some other broker have it, too dangerous for me. As for silver, even when it moves against me, I usually have a chance to get out at break even or better. If I layer in and out, both long and short, I generally have a play in almost any market. All I need is volatility. I have sometimes been accused of being conservative in a speculative market. I guess that’s why I’m still here, when so many others have fallen

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 00:08
WW @NE>(@NE):
I used to live on Balboa Island and NPB is one of the shallowest overtly materialistic anti-intellectual places I have lived. Sorry, just my opine!

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 00:07
John @hepcat @23:09: Comrade in arms, we would like to maintain your presence as a constant reminder of what is in store, should we fail to properly medicate. Reality is such a bitch without it. Eh?

Date: Fri Jul 18 1997 00:04
Steve John>(John):
John: $325.00 within five dollar's eh.. If you are as confident as you try to appear ( behind a key-board ) make it with in $1:00, and one month of silence from the loser ... well make it six months and then we will see if you can really act like a man.

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