Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:58
RJ @ Newport Beach>(@ Newport Beach):
Schippi - We are neighbors. I live, work, and play in NB.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:58
RJ @23:16:

How many times can account equity be committed? If the same equity can cover a position in both gold and silver; why not a full measure of PL and PA as well? I would also assume that this does not apply to long positions where physical possesion might complicate the arithmetic.

Knowing no more than you have stated; would it be proper to assume that the short positions are naked shorts?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:57
TED @1AM>(@1AM):
Goodnight all..........

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:48
2BR02B? CoosBayOregon>(CoosBayOregon):
Schippi - spent some time last winter in Newport Beach installing satellite business data systems in Thrifty/Payless drugstores.
Fresh air, clear skies, impressive neighborhood that Newport Beach.

Got a little sailboat myself, if that's you mean by yacht and
not the motor variety ( a man without a yacht should be taken
out and shot - jp morgan )'s just a cute little thing, good
for crabbing out on Coos Bay. Somewhere in reading the S&L genre
filling a dusty bookshelf at the library I found the imperative
to seek restitution. A couple young turks managing a hi-yield
bond fund were emulating the vulture/raven tactics of the big
boys when the RTC was in full swing, investing the funds assets
in the distressed securities and properties left over from the
S&L affair, leveraging their big positions to advantage...
workout artists. Restitution, good name for a sailboat.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:46
D.A. @22:56: Amen, on that one. Other nations have experienced the grand bubble and had the opportunity to recover. They were not however serving as the world's reserve currency as well as a major sink for its production. If we ultimately experience something similar to Japan, for example, I fear your last line will become inoperative. As in, null and void.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:45
RJ The piper must be paid>(The piper must be paid):
Old Gold - Wise words, those. Life carries risk. I work in a speculative market, with risk capital. We aren't talking about using the retirement money or the kids college funds.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:41
George Cole sentiment>(sentiment):
Current sentiment re;gold and stocks shows how easy it is to be bearish at or near the bottom and bullish at or near a major top

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:40
Fundy @23:34: You're absolutely correct words cease to have meaning. I give up. Promise.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:37
Old Wall Street ditty:

He who sells what isn't his'n
Must pay it back or go to prison

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:36
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Good evening Tort! We are up again tonight ( +1.10 ) but why did that chicken cross the road.....

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:36

I very carefully qualified my comments to point out how a reader's reaction is related to writer's INTENT. For example, if I were to say: Fundy, you're a raging idiot for ever believing the gold market would rise again, my comment would be both bearish and ill conceived as a personal attack.

Having said such a thing, in the manner just stated; would I have cause to expect a full ration of crap in return? You bet! Yet, many positions are stated in just such a manner. Why? ... Is it for general enlightenment or ego aggrandizement? I submit for the latter.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:35
Vieserre home>(home):
NJ Sorry, thanks for the reply.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:34
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
John: Whatever you say. Your taking a lot more jolts than necessary given what you say you are trying to do.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:26
RJ Big Time Tom>(Big Time Tom):
BTT - My silver longs did well today, although I now worry more about 4.00 than I ever thought I would. As for gold, I consider every dollar up another dollar for profit on the way back down. Yes $300 soon - 60 days - probably sub $300 - 275 - 280 later this year.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:26
Vieserre : Your 22:36. You have me mistaken for someone else.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:24
Fundy - I don't know that I enjoy the whole thing. It's more like I am forced to
enjoy the whole thing. I see my role as that of lightning rod, taking the
major jolts so that more reasonable and more seasoned opinions
can find repose here.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:24
john: i wish you only good health and good fortune.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:17

Aurophile - As a physician, you above all people should recognize
that mental illness is not something to laugh about or wish upon other
people. Did you spend a lot of time on rounds making fun of schizophrenia?
To bring it to your level, think of it as a nasty case of psoriasis, or bullous pemphigus. Ouchie.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:16
Amnesty @heaven>(@heaven):
john@hepcat. Well what can I say? You put yourself out to pasture early.
Fillies or should I say pussy cats started to tire you out, huh? Keep
this retirment rate up and this will be a channel of angels!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:16
RJ This is how I short............>(This is how I short............):
NoMercy @ 06:32 - In reply to your query of the mechanics of gold short: I work with physical metals on a five to one leverage. My clients do not pay lease rates on gold and silver shorts. In fact they earn interest. I know of nowhere else in this country, or even the world with such an interest bearing short position. The only way I can answer your question is to use actual numbers. Lets talk silver short first:

Sell $50,000 of silver with a $10,000 investment. Clients currently earn 6.5% on the initial 10K, or $650 in one year. I am computing at simple interest, the actual interest will compound monthly, so the numbers are better than depicted here. Clients will also earn 3% ( current rate ) for the entire market value of the silver - $50,000 - or $1,500 per year. $650 + $1,500 = $2,150. With the initial investment of $10,000, my clients earn 21.5% on their money in one year in interest alone, based on current rates. Silver currently has an initial turnaround cost of about 9 cents per ounce, a market drop of 29 cents will return a net profit of 20% in addition to interest earned.

Gold currently pays 2% of market value. $50,000 x 2% = $1000 + $650 = $1,650 or 16.5% return in interest in one year. Initial turnaround costs on a gold short are currently about $5 - $6 per ounce.

Now, maybe you can see why I love to be short. Approximately 80% of the time, the market is sideways or down. My clients earn $ in interest every day the trade is open. This interest is in addition to profits earned by price movements in their favor. It is important to note that my clients have no arbitrary delivery dates or expiration dates as they would with futures or options, so there is no pressure to cover in the middle of one of those market manipulations that are so common on first delivery notice or option expiration.

My clients also have the ability to use the same $10,000 equity to take a long position in another metal. This means that a client can have, for example, long silver, and short gold with the same 10K initial investment.

As you can see, I work with a unique program that gives me a unique perspective on these markets. I hope I didn’t bore with this long explanation but there is no way to explain it properly without using real numbers.

As for the move in gold today, a gift from heaven. I will sell short here and higher, for I believe $300 and lower is in the cards.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:12
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Earl: Don't know where you have been but bears are the object of scorn and personal attacks here virtually without exception. Hepcat is just the most obvious victum and obviously enjoys the whole thing.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:09

Well, as we get closer to midnight, it's clear that everyone except EB at this
site prefers not to put their money where their mouth is. Glad Kitco provides
a social circle for early retirees. Remember, you had the chance to shut
me up and you didn't take advantage of it.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:09
Ted, I knew you were hot, but I never knew you went by the handle fire loins. This site is becoming racy and Ted's at the head of the pack. So folks what have we today, a bull market in gold or a lot of bull in a bear market? The further question is can we bear a bull market? Why did that chicken really cross the road anyway?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:08
NJ Fed>(Fed):
D.A. Thanks.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:06
john: your new medication seems to be quite effective in general, but i notice a little word salad creeping into your monologs once again. you may need to check blood levels or consult a professional regarding proper dosage. best wishes, as always.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:06
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold up 1.10 and silver up 1 cent....and July 29th Gold @ 325...

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 23:04
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Don't know what Tomorrow will bring, but for tonight
here is a Champagne toast to all the Kitco GoldBugs,
from the Yacht Kickin Back, from beautiful Newport Beach, CA.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:57

TED - Light of my life, fire of my loins. Stop trying to co-opt me,
you filthy prig. By your own admission, we know who you are.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:56
D.A. re.monetization>(re.monetization):

The thought certainly crossed my mind but the jury is still out. Today's release showed a $1 billion decline in the currency in circulation account. I have a feeling that the FED is perhaps not in a mood to add more air to the bubble. They must be praying that only a small leak develops so their is an orderly retreat. They must know however that prayers are almost never answered in the markets. Certainly in the end game where the stability of the system is in question they will do whatever they can think of. One thing seems pretty clear, none of us have the imagination to conjure up the wierdness that seems destined to follow. I only hope it doesn't lead to anything real ugly.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:52
TED @hepcat>(@hepcat):
Hello my dear friend...You never cease to amaze me but really how did you know about the Egyptian cotton

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:50
D.A. fed.web>(fed.web):
NJ: releases can be found here

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:50

Aurophile - Do you have any additional information that would help confirm
this rumor, for example, at what age did you retire? At what age could
George Soros have retired, if he had wanted to spend his evenings on
the computer saying things like low flying seagull or high-flying kayak
as a cute way of indicating he sent someone an E-mail, something invaluable
for all the professional investors on this site?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:41
Arden: hello old friend! what i heard is that soros piggybacked the aussie sale BUT is waiting to take delivery at some ( lower ) price. this used to be referred to as a chinese hedge. part of this rumor is based on the fact that gs entered into gold in late 1990 via australia and the $AD. since gs doesn't call me often i can't confirm this. :- )

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:40
Even Singapore is pooh-poohing the Asian currency crisis. I suppose they should know better......

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:40

TOM - I hope no one follows my advice for anything other than physical gold.
My prediction that gold will be at $325 on July 29 indicates that it's not going
to do much interesting for the rest of the month. Sorry that I can't predict
day-to-day, TOM. The short-term trend is still down. This hasn't changed.
Everyone gets into this all the time with gold stocks or whatever they want
to convince themselves they are right about - the shouting out of prices whenever
things are temporarily in their favor, regardless of the overall big picture. The reason I am posting so much today is because someone last night said I only post
when gold drops. Wrongo. I post whenever incorrect thinking needs to be
corrected, and that doesn't change on this site day-to-day. TOM, if you think
the bottom is in, buy, buy with all your heart and soul and money. Don't let
me stop you. Make sure to update us on your progress, as I'm not going
to lose sleep over where you'll be in a few months.

TED - Is that how you treat your servants? Tell us another story, TED.
Tell us how you cornered the market on Egyptian cotton, or turned a lion
inside out. We like your stories, TED.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:37
Seems that Microsoft has confidence in Thailand! That pesky Bill, he'll do anything for another billion or two..... From the Bangkok Business Times:

MICROSOFT has confirmed that its investments in Thailand will continue as the company is very confident that the information technology ( IT ) market will grow at an increasingly rapid rate in a long term.

The investments will continue to be very important for Microsoft in Thailand in the near future, remarked Blas Garcia Moros, who was recently appointed as the company's director for Southeast Asian operations.

The appointment will take effect from August 1 onwards.

Microsoft's commitment is to continue to grow in the marketplace while computer and software are essential for today's economy, Moros said.

He said the IT industry would be able to maintain high growth rate in the current economic situation because the use of IT in Thailand had not yet reached very high levels. .

To support its long-term investment, he said, the company would be looking for a long-term relationship with its partners who were able to complement Microsoft products.

Microsoft would invest over $200 million ( about six billion baht ) in local product de evelopment, he added.

According to the Acting Managing Director of Microsoft ( Thailand ) , Yudthana Aimthikul, the recent managed float of the baht would result in higher product prices.

However, the company was assessing the impact of the baht depreciation and preparing a solution package, he said.

The company yesterday announced that it would officially launch its best-selling Office 97 and Windows NT operating system Thai Edition on August 15 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center ( QSNCC ) .

The price of the software is still under consideration.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:36
Vieserre home>(home):
NJ I recall reading earlier that you stated you are a trader in metals but not through the future exchange. Accordingly, I presume then your trading is OTC. With this in mind, there was a report today than implied that the hedging by hedge funds accounts in part for the large turnover on the LBMA. Do you have any personal knowledge as to whether this may be true or what accounts for the high LBMA volume.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:35
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
NJ ( 22:19 ) YES!...EBN Gold up 1.40 and Silver up 1 cent...HI Hepcat...I love you man....

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:33
Hi everyone!! Nice to see things firming up in the gold department. Looks like the Thai's can't say the same thing in the Baht department........

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:30
well at least someone seems to think gold is going up. some timid stops on the after hours ( US ) market got taken out tonight in a blitz of trading down to $317 in a ten minute period around 2000 edt. and now after being down momentarily $6+ nynex/access is quoting last trade at $326 GCQ7, up $1.30 from Comex close. sly foxes and rogues out after dark...

*IF* the stock market has peaked--for a while--and the dollar is pausing at its peak, we could be into range time or--may we dream?--a meaningful rally. apart from jerry favors ( ) , a few dozen cool folk, et moi meme very few are willing to consider the possibility of a top in stocks. the bs in stocks is nearly as deep now as the bear scat was in april. lurk onto any of the stock chat sites and hear the half-witted expound upon the ease of making money to supplement that day job.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:26
TED @hepcat>(@hepcat):
Hepcat: I try and befriend you and you attack me...and here I thought we were buds...How are things in the real world...I've been gone recently and am not familar with your take on the gold market,so if you could enlighten me.....

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:26

In order to determine the correct pecking order at this site, I think we should
post not only our E-mail address but also what at what age we retired.
I, for example, retired at age 32. TED retired at 42. Therefore, since TED
squirreled away 10 years before retirement, his opinion should be weighted
accordingly. At some point we should also enter in net worth, but I think we
should give this AOR ( age of retirement ) factor a go before complicating it.
Naturally, there will be lottery winners and sports/personality figures who were able to retire ( or effectively retire ) before me. Their opinions should be accorded
the utmost respect, and could never be challenged. I'm thinking of getting
a panel together, say Mark Duper ( formerly of the Miami Dolphins, currently
penniless because of a nasty drug habit but retired nonetheless ) , that guy
who fronted for the Village People before pursuing a solo career ( on hold,
now in forced retirement while selling musical equipment out of his garage ) ,
and the most recent Powerball winners. This triumvirate would run Kitco and
dictate opinions expressed here.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:24
Big Time Tom Selling at the bottom>(Selling at the bottom):

John@home: I'm glad that you held on for a few more hours, John, and didn't sell at the opening price this morning, as yesterday you said you were going to do. I thought about you several times when the price began moving up today. I thought, Wow, if you were depressed yesterday, you'll really be depressed tonight. But I'm glad you're not.

I recall that, when gold was at its recent low back on July 7th, John@hepcat wrote: The bottom is not in, and people who are buying right now are going against the very tenet they claim to believe in: Don't buck the trend. But now Mr. Hepcat is predicting $325 an ounce on July 29th. So is this an admission, Mr. Hepcat, that you were wrong back on July 7th? And who is in a better position today? A trader who agreed with you and therefore shorted gold back on July 7th ( at $316 or $317 ) --or one who disagreed with you, went long back then, and took a profit today?

I am also reminded of RJ, who wrote last night: Yes I am long silver and very, very short gold. Will hold off silver buys and put on new gold shorts. So...did you put on your new gold shorts this morning, RJ?--and how did you look in them? Seriously, are you still short gold, as I expect you may be?--and do you still look for it to fall below $300 an ounce? Because you are a trader who is very close to the action, I always appreciate your perspective on things.


Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:19
Anyone keeping an eye on EBN

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:19
YES!Holiday in malaysia,probably in most musliman country.The birthday of the NABI MOHD.
I did covered all my short at 324.50.ALL of them !!the currency look extremely BAD here.Will play save and have a good holiday today.
peace mind today.........realised...errrrrrrrrrr

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:17
Donald @Home>(@Home):
LURKER2: Korea was open at least part of the day. It took a serious nosedive as per this story. I have no info that it closed early.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:14
Vieserre Taking a Look At The Forest>(Taking a Look At The Forest):
CPI inflation during the first six months of 1997 was the lowest since 1965 . Despite silver demand increasing and the lowest inventory stocks in the last seven years, its price has reached its lowest level since November 1993. Despite a tight platinum and paladium market, and a reported continued short squeeze, the PGMS have not resumed an upward thrust since their post spike correction. Despite an apparent improving global economy, copper has come off substantially from its highs, and the CRB is weak as well as Industrial Raw Materials. There is simply no industrial commodity of which I am aware that is currently looking strong. Oil is flat at best. And the strength of the dollar is contractionary.

In veiw of this, except for a rally induced by technical considerations, why would one expect gold to advance. In addtion to currency turmoil and latent systemic financial risks, gold, in its role as an indicator of inflation, reportedly begins to respond in price about one year before an increase in the PPI. And if one expects inflation to pick up during this period, it would then not be unexpected for gold to start basing even though all present economic signs are disinflationary. But if disinflation were to continue on its present trend for some unknown time, as bonds are currently predicting, and absent any currency or financial crisis, then gold may continue to decline - not because of CB selling, not because of speculative short sales, not because of producer hedging ... as these are merely symptoms of the cause - but due to gold's traditional role as as leading indicator of economic and other global conditions unfavorable to gold. Conversely, if conditions were favorable for gold to rise, no amount of CB selling , producer hedging or speculative selling could stop it.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:13
NJ words>(words):
john : What is a illuminati.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:11
Or, as another example, Earl's lack of response to my query.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:10
NJ Turn?>(Turn?):
If this is indeed a turn Jerry Favors is going to be remembered for a long time

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:10

Golly, TED, do you need someone to make up more stories
about your spiffy life, retiring at age 42 so you could devote your
time to telling everyone on Kitco they had E-mail? Isn't that what
all the wealthy illuminati dream of?

Between TED and GSC, we've got the market cornered on
early retirees. Do we have anyone out there in touch with the
real world as we currently know it?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:09

I will continue to maintain that there is a clear distinction to be drawn between messenger and message as well message and its intent. Though occcasionally violated, a bearish message is generally well received if delivered in rational and impersonal tones. If a writer finds his skills inadequate to the task of appropriate delivery, perhaps he would find satisfaction in a less demanding role. If, on the other hand, a writer's intent was merely to stir the pot, he should have the decency to conceal his howls of outrage. John's last response to me should serve as example.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:06
D. A. Upon reading your discussion of foreign purchases of US debt, I was reaching for the conclusion and the US Fed is buying for its own account the securities sold by the other countries, in effect monetizing the debt and increasing US money supply. Is that right?

This could explain how the bond market is staying up in the midst of the divestitures you have described. Ultimately this will be inflationary and self-defeating, of course.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:04
NJ Turn?>(Turn?):
S&P down on Globex and gold up 1.05 on EBN

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:01
Lurker2 @>(@):

I saw that Malaysia, Indonesia, and S. Korea stock markets were closed 7/17. Was this a holiday or is something afoot?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 22:01
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Ted: The message was not a personal attack just an observation of the prevailing sentiment.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:51
what was@that?>(was@that?):
What happened about an hour ago? gold and oil were up a little and whamo
oil drops .95 and gold $6? Everything has returned to up slightly after 1/2 hour.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:50
NJ CBs>(CBs):
D.A. : Can you please post the url of the Fed site.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:44
the wizard @ Oz>(@ Oz):
Gold's most recent pattern of higher lows, & including today's ( 7/17 ) surge; are in contrast to silver's 'insistence' on probing more lows, on the daily charts. In addition, stocks such as AEM are up 6+% today; how many nasdaq & nyse 'street-endorsed' issues are doing likewise? These factors, and many others, are suggesting that in the midst of the pervasive pessimism, esp. with the recent shake-out, the odds of a new bull chapter for precious metals, are increasing, dramatically.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:44
Donald @Home>(@Home):
D.A. At about 2:30 pm New York time today CNBC reported that a large T-Bond buyer had backed out of a commitment to purchase. The bond market was up before the news and immediately tanked.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:44
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold up .70 and Silver down 1 cent.....

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:44
Say WHAT Soros short gold? Why would the largest stockholder in Newmont ( who is not hedged ) be short gold at these prices? Soros bought his position four years ago at $39 per share and sold a bit at $60 but still owns most of it. Why would he short gold? Unless........ he covered today and reversed. That might explain the huge volume in Newmont today!!!

And you thought I could only comment on Comex gold stocks!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:38
TED @Fundy>(@Fundy):
Fundy ( 21:32 ) I didn't retire to my oceanfront house at age 42 by makin many bad calls....

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:34
D.A. CB.sales>(CB.sales):

Over the last several years foreign CB's have purchased great gobs of US paper. These purchases are held on account by our Fed and the gross face value of the paper is reported every Thursday afternoon in the H.4.1 release ( its at the federal reserve site ) . Up until about the first week of June of this year foreign CB's were on an alltime massive buying spree. The total of their purchases reached around $650 billion with some $70 billion ( not sure of this number will check later ) occuring in the first five months of this year. Some folks around the world, and some at this site ( including moi ) believe that the huge purchases of our debt by foreign CB's over the last few years have been a major contributor to the financial asset bubble which has been created. Simply put, foreign CB's have financed our deficits, allowing whatever meager savings of the public to flow freely into the purchase of equities. Had the CB's not been going hog wild our interest rates would have been much higher thus effectively sucking money from the equity market and cooling off the economy. That there appears to be a reversal going on ( we are now down for about 6 ( ? ) consecutive weeks ) is perhaps crucial. It had been my contention that this would occur if and only if the dollar got too strong. In this case foreign CB's not wishing to see their currencies go over the deep end would begin process of selling some dollars to support their currencies. This appears to be happening. While the bond market has been strong during this period of selling I believe that this pressure will take its toll. I know that it is hard to believe that anything bad could happen to equities or bonds but this is a significant change in the fundamentals of supply and demand and not to be discounted. Its not something to hand your hat on for a short term trade, but as a big picture kind of thing its very real. Some day when we are on the otherside of the mountain people may look back at this info and say oh yeah, that was obvious, of course that was the end of the bull market ...

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:34
TED @hepcat>(@hepcat):
Hepcat: Har har har to you my friend with a HUGE inferiority complex....
I need a new servant....are you available?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:32
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Earl and Ted: We saw earlier this week that it isn't the messenger anjd his manners that counts around here its the message. Bears who have been correct in there forecasts get attacked and local experts who are wrong dayly for months are revered. Doesn't say much for the collective wisdom.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:29
REB na>(na):
Gold has trended up since the open in Tokyo tonight. I don't believe we've seen that for awhile.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:29
TED @novice>(@novice):
Novice: Look out for a low flying gull.....SPLAT!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:28

Earp, I mean Earl - So what number can I put you down for again?

It is painfully obvious that I know nothing and yet continue to best
you regarding POG, Earl. That's what this site is, Earg, er, Earl.
If we wanted to see you labor so hard to produce stilted prose,
wouldn't we go to an amateur writers' web site? Earl, don't you
have any family you can subject your pedantry on?

TED - Missile comin' your way. Har har har.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:25
JIN: I appreciate your quick response and two e-mails in one day and I'll get back to you tomorrow when my brain will be a little less scrambled from the long road trip....How about the S.E.T. ( it's had some big days recently )

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:22
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home):
Milhouse: You mentioned on July 5 that you would update us on Armstrong's Princeton Economics forecast. I may have missed it. In any event, recent currency volatility seems to agree with his forecast. Do you have any other tidbits for us?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:21
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Currency devaluations, Yen Blocs, President Clinton on the news tonight threatening the Euros over the Boeing-McD deal. Sounds like an old fashioned Trade War. Shooting in the Koreas, sounds like an old fashioned shoot-out at the OK Corral. Folks are getting nervous and macho. Not good for the world. ( but probably good for gold )

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:19
TED @earl>(@earl):
Earl ( 20:50 ) WELL SAID!....EBN Gold up .10 and Silver down 1 cent..Hepcat: Get a life!....somewhere else!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:11
Dave @goldrush>(@goldrush):

D. A. - Would you briefly explain your last post? Does such a move support an up or down trend?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:03
Steve - Perth>(
Re: Hugh Morgan & RBA conflict of interest. Hugh Morgan's outfit is a BIG donor to Australian Liberal Party. So I don't think he will be moving off the board, unless he can't stand the media barrage. In the hands of the spin doctors now. I want to post news like Donald does. I don't think our local antics in that area are that newsworthy. Corrupt? Yes of course. As was said recently by a colleague, democracy does not work unless you have a little bit of corruption. ( unfortunately ) . To quote someone else, you are not guilty until you have run out of money ( for lawyers ) .

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 21:00

Old H.4.1 out again this afternoon and wouldn't ya know it. Another 500 million dollars of our paper sold by foreign CB's. Looks like we got ourselves a trend.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 20:57
Steve - Perth>(
DONALD: Great news bites. You are right on the money about the currency weakness. I wonder how long the Aussie dollar will rise for. Maybe not long. I have held the view for many years now that we Pacific Rim countries will be herded into a Yen block. Looks like it isn't far around the corner. However it will probably not happen without a crisis such as is developing. Ever wondered how Korea got all their cheap finance in the first place? I think it was through the IMF at super low interest rates. Our country's manufacturing base has been decimated, & we are now flooded with cheap Asian cars. I even own one!! Plus a Ford also. Keep up the great research work Don!! Am right behind you.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 20:54
panda @>(@):
Seems that the NDX has fallen out of favor for the moment tonight. It's down 1265. Limit for the Globex on NDX is 3000. In the FWIW column, the Globex page has lost much of it's forecasting worth, IMHO, of course.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 20:52
Steve - Perth>(
BART: Thanks for your guidelines. I think I will go & park my John Deere back in the grudge. ( Good joke Tortfeasor ) . As an observation, it is amazing how easy it is to flush people out on this site. Think about that one. I suspect a few people might be pondering things my way occasionally as well. In Australia at the moment, the electorate is sick to death of political correctness, which we had to endure under Labor for 13 years. They held power through pandering to ethnic minorities. It was interesting to see though which ethnic minority groupS led the pollies by the nose. However, I will now be ambassadorial, & pretend everything is just fine & dandy.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 20:50
John @hepcat: You wrote: Given that, why do you attack me with such vigor when I profess to know absolutely nothing ( nor care ) ?

We all realize that you neither know or care. ON the other hand, we do. Your confessed ignorance and lack of interest in topics germane to this site have been painfully obvious from the beginning. Given that, your only motivation for remaining here as an active interjector can only be for purposes of disruption. In that you succeed wonderfully.

If you are still mystified as to why you would be treated cavalierly, perhaps you might ponder your motives. They are obvious to any reader of your posts. No doubt you would agree that a gentleman would not forcibly intrude, as an active participant, on conversations concerning matters which are of no interest to him professionally or personally.

I hope this adequately answers a question that should have been obvious to the most casual obsever.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 20:50
D.A. Sibling.investment.strategy>(Sibling.investment.strategy):

Last I talked with my bro ( yesterday afternoon BBQ ) he was still on the stuff path. He's racking up the frequent flyer miles heading all over the western hemisphere looking at stuff businesses and properties to buy. I know he ( himself and some group of investors ) have some bids in on citrus land in Florida, there's something about airports in rural Mexico, timber in Costa Rica and I believe also in Guatamala. I don't know all the particulars but if you're tied in to large funds and you're interested I could hook you up with him. I can't guarantee returns but it sure will be interesting.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 20:38
vronsky The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy>(The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy):
Dr. Geoffrey P. Miller, Professor of Law & Director, Center for Study of Central Banks, New York University Law School - presents erudite & comprehensive study ( Part - I ) . SEE Editorials:

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 20:34
JIN: Was just a LUCKY GUESS!...Tort: You have a missile abouit to hit...

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 20:32

You bought 'em, you da man, the rest don't mean *&^*.
Score 1 for the bugs.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 20:30
Byron @ EBN>(@ EBN):
EBN shows gold up .10

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 20:25
Byron @Public Library>(@Public Library):
Source of info on gold jumping up and down is pretty reliable.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 20:23

Correction, EB has.
EB, I know how much you like platinum, and I am actually holding some from
about two years ago, but if you would offer me $400 for it right now, I would
gladly accept, cause it ain't going to be nowhere near that on July 29.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 20:19
So far tonight no one has taken me up on the prediction for July 29 spot gold close.
I take that to mean you all feel you have more to lose than to gain, i.e. you don't
have a crystal ball, so why risk losing posting privileges for a month. Given
that, why do you attack me with such vigor when I profess to know absolutely
nothing ( nor care ) ? Put up or shut up. It's only your reputations to lose, and
your continued waffle diet. As I said to George S. Cole, at least I put a number
out there to be judged on.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 20:19
Byron @ Gold Alert:>(@ Gold Alert:):
Reading reports while surfing that gold is jumping up and down, down $6 back to unchanged and now down $4. Does anyone have confirming info.?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 20:14
EB ok...johnH...I say 325 also...July 29...have you called your broker to sell calls and collect premiums?>(ok...johnH...I say 325 also...July 29...have you called your broker to sell calls and collect premiums?):
This is not to say that I agree w/ your social skills. Be nice. What is your call on Platinum by July 29...oh sagacious one.

Friday's have been hellious for GOLD. It will Drop like that dead animal to which everyone is referring.



Be secret and exult
Because of all things known
That is the most difficult

William Butler Yeats

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 20:11
George Cole in Florida>(in Florida):
Bob; Thanks for the rumors re: Soros and the CBs very negative attitude towards him!

Dead cat bounce or beginning of major bull run? Neither perhaps.. Would very much like to seel the yellow base for awhile before starting a major move up. That way I would have more confidence in its longevity.

Today's gold stock action was disappointing, but the action probably will get much better if the yellow remains firm this Friday the 18th ( a very unusual occurance over the past 18 months )

Remember the old investment slogan, bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. Well the pigs have beat out everybody these past few years. Oh those lucky porkers!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 20:09

Strad Master - I tend to agree with all of your points. For the last two months
( maybe longer ) I have posted under one handle, that which you see above. I for one think it is a tremendous waste of time to have to wade through multiple posts
by the same person under different handles, especially when it is painfully
obvious who is actually doing the posting. However, the fact that this is
frustrating is exactly why people are doing it. Indeed, it is exactly why I was
doing it before I started posting under one handle.
I operate with one guiding principle on this site: No one attacks me with impunity,
or you get what you give. I may not mount a very effective defense, but I sure as heck am going to mount one. I also believe that actions have consequences.
If someone says that gold is going to $365, then they better not run and hide
( or hide under a different handle ) if it doesn't. If someone says Flag is going
to 65 cents, guaranteed, and it doesn't, then they should be mature enough
to admit their mistakes. Before someone says they are leaving the site,
then they ought to stop and think if this is what they really intend to say. C'mon,
it's not like this is something blurted out in the heat of the moment - you have
to sit down and type a farewell address out.
I have nothing against Front. He, at times, is just as flippant as I am. But we've
got all these prima donnas on this site who are so fragile they can't be
challenged, or they pack their bags. I was somewhat happy when Front went
off on Vronsky, in part because I had fomented the rebellion from Vronsky's
wallpaper assault, which everyone kind of nibbles at the edges of but never
really comes out and says. At the same time, I was saddened, because I knew it
would end up in a hasty reconciliation, with Front turning on me. The whole
thing was manufactured even if Front didn't intend it to be ( or maybe he intended
it to be - As we always hear on this site, What evidence do you have to the
contrary? )

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 19:58
From Beijing to Brazil to Bulgaria, many banks are shaky - even in fast-growing Asian economies. These may be the pins which prick Wall Street’s Bubble. STEVE PUETZ LETTER:

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 19:52
BillD HiTech>(HiTech):
Maybe this is why the Hi Tech's are flying so high...from the url posted below by Donald

NEW YORK, 07/17/97 - In the future world trade will be channeled through the Internet, said
Craig Barrett, president of Intel, the largest chip manufacturer in the world. In an exclusive interview
with Gazeta Mercantil, Barrett affirmed that MMX technology which expands audiovisual capacity
of microprocessors produced by Intel in Santa Clara California, will be an important tool in future
commercial operations. He projected that by the end of the decade 200 million people will be
navigating on the Internet. ( SB )

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 19:42
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Brazilian President vows to defend the currency.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 19:23
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Asian countries seek Yen Bloc to replace dollar. ( If anyone sees a trend developing in these posts please let me know )

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 19:20
Strad Master>(
jOHN: ( Hepcat john - there are two Johns who post here so please forgive me if I must distinguish you by your lack of a capital letter and your e-mail address. )
Point 1. I dislike getting into these silly squabbles that erupt here as I find it all so meaningless. We are all anonymous here and even if someone uses his/her true and correct name we know virtually NOTHING about them, so it seems that if someone posts under one or one hundred different names, all that matters is that the information is interesting or useful. It is also easy and quite possible to ignore postings that you disagree with. I do it all the time.
Point 2. You are obviously a very intelligent fellow. I was delighted to see you start to post clear and insightful posts once you got the three two five stuff out of your system. Now that gold starts to gyrate a bit it seems your old combativeness is starting to leak out again. As has been pointed out by others here already, if you want the respect of the group, a civil tone ( which I know you can easily muster ) is all that is necessary to insure that respect. RJ - who posted very contrary thoughts right from the beginning was immediately accepted because of his obviously well-intentioned, insightful, and ultimately correct postings.
Point 3. For you to attack Front for multiple postings under different names is unnecessary, silly, and just plain wrong!! I happen to be in daily e-mail touch with Front and nearly as often with Vronsky. The first I heard of Front leaving the site in disgust was through an e-mail he wrote me. Over the ensuing days I was able to write to each of them and offer explanations as to the obvious misunderstanding that had taken place between them. If you will recall from Front's return to posting he specifically addressed Vronsky and thanked him for the forwarded e-mail. I was the one who forwarded that e-mail to him. Both Mr. Front and Mr. Vronsky are men of great maturity and gentility who don't have either the time or the inclination to indulge in childish games of posting messages to themselves. ( That's best left to the likes of Michael Lerner of Tikkun Magazine! ) Do you have the time and desire to write to yourself just so you can read congratulatory notes to yourself in print? If so, I truly have compassion for your lonely soul.
Point 4. Feel free to attack me as well if it will make you feel better. I understand just how meaningless it is. Above is my real e-mail address so you don't feel Im attempting to hide. Thank you for your time.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 19:08
Skylark @>(@):
BOB: It appears that the BIG BOYS are at bat - and THAT is the problem.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 18:56
RLM Gold Bugitis >(Gold Bugitis ):
Now that you’ve bought a little gold, you’re starting to sound like one of us “gold bugs”. Shame, shame ;- )
You recently mentioned your brother. Haven’t seen him in print for awhile. In what direction is his investment compass currently pointed?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 18:49
Bart Kitner (Kitco)>(
To Uris: The difference in price between Krugerrands and Eagles is because of the ( lack of ) demand. Both coins are 22K and both contain an ounce of pure gold. The Eagles are carrying a higher premium right now simply because they're more desirable.

To Steve from Downunder: This discussion group is a public forum. It attracts people literally from all over the world. Political correctness may not belong everywhere, but I think the concepts are beneficial to this site where one is publicly addressing large populations of mixed nationalities.

In order of numbers of hits generated from each country here is a list of 95% of who's visiting Kitco:

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 18:47
Bob is the time for Big Gold to rally on behalf of long investors>( is the time for Big Gold to rally on behalf of long investors):
Now that we have a fix on who ( John W. Henry fund ) and how much ( $1.2 B ) the New York big short has it is time for Peter Munk and his colleagues at Big Gold to blow this minor league player out of the water.

The Reuter story ( Earl, I missed your original post ) on the Comex short position and action in the pits also hinted that the RSA Financial Mail speculates that George Soros ( $15 B fund ) has been shorting gold.

Soros may have a great record as financial alchemist but the CBs - particularly the Brits - are still smarting over his orchestrated currency crisis that netted him one of investment history's greatest return for a Billion dollar bet.

The Reuter article suggested that although the COMEX position limit is 750,000 ozs. au ( 7.5k contracts ) hedge funds have added short positions in the OTC market and the total aggregate hedge fund short position
may be as high as 2,000 tonnes, or roughly equivalent to all outstanding producer hedges, and an amount greater than the sum of all published net central bank sales in the last ten years, one analyst said.

It is estimated total short position of 2,000 tonnes ( 65 mil. ozs. ) is twice the size of the average daily turnover of the London Bullion Market Association, according to the article.

If you think about the math and the volocity of money you come to the conclusion that either the goldbugs and longs have totally misjudged the oversold condition in gold price or we are soon about to see one of the greatest short squeezes in investment history.

Now is the time for the Big Boys to step up to the plate and gives us a display of financial force to blow the weak shorts who will collapse the house of cards built by the spec gold shorts.


Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 18:36
Donald @Home>(@Home):
TWO DAYS OLD BUT NEWS TO ME:Malaysia: Bank fails to stem assault on

Originally published: TUESDAY JULY 15 1997

By James Kynge in Kuala Lumpur

Malaysia's ringgit yesterday became the latest south-east Asian currency to
buckle under speculative attack after the country's central bank abandoned
support for the currency at a level it has defended for the past two months.

The ringgit fell 1.8 per cent to a 16-month low of M$2.5500 against the
US dollar after the central bank offered only token resistance to waves of
selling in early trade, dealers said. The currency slipped below M$2.5250,
the level the bank had defended since a speculative attack on the Thai baht
in mid-May.

The assault on Asian currencies that has seen the Thai baht and Philippine
peso devalued in the past two weeks continued yesterday as governments
struggled to maintain currency values against the dollar in spite of weak
exports growth and faltering demand at home.

The Thai central bank intervened to support the baht, saying it had fallen
too far at Bt30 - its lowest level since its devaluation. It firmed to close at
Bt29.90. The Philippine peso touched a four-year low but recovered
before closing at 29 to the dollar. The Indonesian rupiah slid to 2,470 to
the dollar early yesterday before recovering to close at 2,450.

Last week, Indonesia's central bank widened the rupiah's trading band to
12 per cent from 8 per cent, saving it billions in its fight to uphold the
currency. In Malaysia, treasury economists said it was unlikely that the
central bank had abandoned the concept of a trading band for the ringgit.
This belief was reinforced by the fact that the central bank, Bank Negara,
had intervened to put a floor under the ringgit's slide at M$2.5500.

It rebounded slightly to about M$2.53 in late trading. Mr Anwar Ibrahim,
Malaysia's acting prime minister and finance minister, said that, following
the ringgit's depreciation, the currency was in a reasonable range. He
reiterated the government's opposition to speculators and said that
currency trade should reflect what he described as Malaysia's strong
economic fundamentals.

Economists say the Malaysian central bank had abandoned its support of
the currency at a level of M$2.5250 after spending up to US$2bn
defending the currency, with little sign of deterring speculators.

Most currency observers say the weakening of other regional currencies
over recent weeks has enhanced their export competitiveness at Malaysia's
expense, leaving Kuala Lumpur little choice but to allow the ringgit to

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 18:25
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Germans prefer devaluation: Hard pounding


This is a time when traditionally strong currencies are weak and
traditionally weak ones strong. But the managers of the US dollar, the
Japanese yen and the D-Mark are happy with this turn of the great wheel
of currency fortune. So long as their complacency lasts, those caught in the
turmoil can do little more than grin and bear it. This is true for the emerging
economies of eastern Europe and east Asia. It is just as true for the British.

The pound has appreciated by 38 per cent against the D-Mark from its
low in May 1995 and by 32 per cent since last August alone. It is now well
above its old DM 2.95 central rate in the exchange rate mechanism of the
European Monetary System. British travellers abroad may love the
appreciation, but exporters loath it.

Unfortunately for the British, Germans have become devaluation-lovers at
last. Only yesterday, a government spokesman declared that the rise of
the dollar and sterling against the mark is improving Germany's competitive
position and will boost growth and jobs without creating inflationary
dangers. So competitive devaluations are wonderful, after all.

Vantage point

From the UK's relatively narrow vantage point, the most important external
development is indeed the weakness of the D-Mark. Against the US
dollar, for example, the D-Mark has depreciated by 24 per cent since its
high point in April 1995 and by 18 per cent since last August alone. Yet
the weakness of the D-Mark is not the best way to describe what has
been happening. The striking feature is the strength of the US dollar against
both the other two significant currencies. The yen, in particular,
depreciated 37 per cent from April 1995 to April of this year, before

Thus the strength of sterling can be broken down into its appreciation
against the dollar and its appreciation with the dollar against third
currencies. Since last August, sterling has only appreciated by 8 per cent
against the dollar, from 1.54 to 1.67. Over the same period, however, it
has appreciated by 32 per cent against the D-Mark.

Two questions arise: why are the European currencies so weak and why
has sterling risen even more against them than the dollar, even though it is
more vulnerable to European competition than the US?

To the first, there are two answers: the need of Europe's weak economies
for a devaluation and the willingness of the authorities to embrace it; and
the consequent desire of investors to flee European currencies.

To the second, there are also two answers: the habitual tendency for
sterling to rise with the dollar when the dollar rises against the D-Mark;
and the similar cyclical positions of the US and the UK, but with the UK
apparently rather closer to overheating than the US.

Depressing conclusion

These rational explanations all have force. But they are not entirely
persuasive. In particular, the increases in short-term interest rate
differentials between the dollar or pound and the D-Mark or yen have
been far too small to explain more than a small fraction of the appreciation
of either the US dollar or the pound. There must have been a fundamental
re-rating of these currencies, together with a speculative bubble.

Unfortunately, this is just another way of saying that the reasons for such
big exchange-rate shifts are far from understood. That is also not the only
depressing conclusion. It is also clear that inflation convergence is not going
to be enough to produce exchange-rate stability.

Still more depressingly, the fact that these huge swings are in part bubbles
does not mean the British authorities can prick them - at least on their own.
The Germans, the Japanese and the Americans appear content with what
is happening. So long as the first two want weak currencies and the
Americans are willing to tolerate a strong one, the British must live with
their painful sterling dilemma.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 18:17
Bob @...good solid information>(@...good solid information):
Check this story on the big short and possible Soros involvement. It also indicates the size and reletive significance of the current gold short position. excellent reading and highly recommended:


Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 18:17
Jack Why?>(Why?):

Very few gold related news stories in the face of todays jump
If gold fell; numerous bearish news views would be presented.
Why? All answers are appreciated.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 18:15
An interesting article at regarding todays action in real money ( thanks again D.A. ) . Worth the visit.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 18:07
mikeharry here & there>(here & there):
This little bounce today must be a minor counter trend rally on the path to DOW 15000 and Gold $75 Just ask the experts on CNBC and CNNfn

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 17:56
Roebear @whyaretheyhiding?>(@whyaretheyhiding?):
Two posts an hour, wow, after a nice runup like today. Is everyone looking for that book on how to skin a cat? Or is the fact that we get a six dollar run up and most just talk of dead cats, never saw that before, does that mean the bottom is in? It would if it was just us, but what about the big players?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 17:51
Ron Trendies Beware>(Trendies Beware):
Aid worker: N. Korea Hunger

By Joe Mcdonald
Associated Press Writer
Wednesday, July 16, 1997; 10:11 a.m. EDT

BEIJING ( AP ) -- The number of North Korean children dying
from acute food shortages is growing and the malnutrition rate
has more than doubled over the past three months, an aid
worker said today.

North Korean officials say the rate of malnutrition among
children under age 6 has climbed from 16 percent in April to
37 percent today, said Kathi Zellweger of the Roman Catholic
charity Caritas.

Zellweger, who returned Tuesday from North Korea, said
800,000 children are considered malnourished and 80,000
suffer severe malnutrition.

The communist country has been hurt by two years of flooding
and poor harvests, and is thought to be on the brink of
widespread famine if it does not receive massive foreign aid.

North Korea, which said earlier that 134 children died of
malnutrition last year, has not released figures on recent deaths.

Zellweger said officials reported hunger was claiming more

``Everywhere we went, they confirmed an increase,'' she said.
She visited towns on the east and west coasts of North Korea,
as well as the capital, Pyongyang.

Zellweger showed photographs taken last week of North
Korean children with sticklike limbs, saying they lacked the
energy even to stand. A colleague told her that he hadn't seen
children in such poor condition since the Ethiopian famine in the
mid-1980s, she said.

The United States, China, South Korea and other countries
have donated several hundred thousand tons of wheat, rice and
other food. But the amount falls far short of the 800,000 tons
that U.N. agencies believe North Korea needs before its
October harvest.

That harvest is expected to be very poor, Zellweger said.

Complicating North Korea's attempt to get help is its military
standoff with South Korea and the United States.

The South Korean military said its border guards exchanged
fire today with North Korean troops at their heavily fortified
border. No South Korean casualties were reported, but North
Korea said several of its soldiers were wounded.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 17:25
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SCHIPPI: Will the dead cat bounce higher or should we take any profits tomorrow?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 17:11
Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:43
FRONT....Regarding your Post Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:43
All: Just to go out on a limb, IMVHO, this looks more like a dead cat bounce than up......

Do you have the Gold SubIndustry URL?

Best Regards Schippi

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 16:48
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Why is everyone focusing on the technical side? I agree that it is a big factor but you can't ignore the impact that the banking problems in Korea, Thailand, Japan and the Philippines had on the rally. When the shorts are all covered only that kind of news will keep it going.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 16:41
Jack >():

Pretty good turn around, can't be a dead cat bounce as gold doesn't die._______ Maybe just a good bounce in a lousy gold market? Hope its real; if so, it shows Aussie Central Bank as incompetent bunch MBA computer jockey's. Throw the bum's out.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 16:35
John @home>(@home):

Thanks for the encouragment. After sleeping on it overnight I decided to stay in the game. Looks like I may have made the right move. Time will tell.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 16:26
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Tomorrow's News, more banking problems in Korea.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 16:25
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Nailz ( 14:57 ) and LSteve ( 13:52 ) :Thanks fer welcome back!!..HI JIN!!! Thanks for the LONG e-mail!!!...Tort: Just got in the door and will work on somethin fer ya tonight...XAU up 3.28....Novice:Will be workin on somethin fer ya too....Time to hit the deck....

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 16:24
Front - The more astute among us will recognize the embedded message
from Thu Jul 03 1997 at 21:41, rather crude but I hope you enjoyed it:

...Yes, all fame is fleeting, fron't wilter non, Met Wo, c'est la vie...

Front will turn on me too. Now that didn't take long, did it?
I had you pegged a long time ago, Front. Lacking in self-confidence,
you faked your own demise from the site and then posted glowing
praise for yourself and pleas to come back under different handles.
Your resolve to leave Kitco lasted all of one day, Mr. Professional

Front and everyone else, let's put our professional skills to the test.
On July 29, spot gold will close at 325. Everyone else, feel free to
post your predictions for July 29 by midnight tonight. For those that
are $5 off or more, no posting for one month. Put up or shup up.

Good trading!


Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 16:16
Byron @ Poor Bear:>(@ Poor Bear:):
With the XAU breaking the 93.99 recent high of a few days ago, I wonder if someone has just spiked this Golden Bear with a Bre-X Salted Spike? Would now like to see HUI break the 141+ number to confirm.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 16:11
2weeks FWIW>(FWIW):
Borrowed from


No, it's alive. As we suggested last week, the profound gloom that pervades the market is a strongly bullish sign. Right now it's hard to find anyone who believes that the yellow metal has much of a future. The market seems convinced that every central bank in the world is poised to unload gold at the next uptick. But there are a few optimists. Leanne Baker, gold analyst at Salomon Brothers, has upgraded -- that's right, upgraded -- Barrick ( NYSE:ABX ) , Getchell ( AMEX:GGO ) , and Placer Dome ( NYSE:PDG ) from Hold to Buy right after the washout. ``We believe that the price weakness is overdone,'' says Baker. ``Commodity demand is at all-time-record highs and mine production already is suffering from current weakness.'' Still, Baker lowered Salomon's 1997 price target from $375 to $350 an ounce.

Yesterday, Standard & Poor's downgraded its outlook on eight gold mining companies from Stable or Positive to Negative. Still, S&P expects that
longer term fundamentals should support a strengthening of prices to around the $350-an-ounce area.

Frank Veneroso, editor of Gold Watch and the Precious Metals Service, blames the sickening plunge in gold almost entirely on massive short selling by hedge funds and other well-financed speculators. ``This price break was a deliberate maneuver by predatory funds,'' says Veneroso, ``to establish a new 12-year low in the gold price.'' He not only discounts the negative effect of Australia's central bank sale, he charges that professional bears are using it to frighten the market. Mr. Veneroso believes that when the intense and continued short sale pressure lets up the price of gold will catapult sharply higher. When will this happen? No way of knowing, except that a rise above $326 an ounce might be the trigger.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 16:08

Korondy: Correction!!! First site given is sharenet, not sharent.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 16:07
Skylark @>(@):
Korondy, Front: I am in your corner. The XAU looks uninspired at best. Bullion may merely be playing catch-up at this time, but if this is other than a brief short-covering rally, the XAU better get off its duff fast or it would appear significant lower prices are being reported ahead.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 16:05
Korondy: For quotes of Johannesburg Stock Exchange ( JSE ) Gold index and more try and for comprehensive share listings Sharenet in general offers interesting and more importantly free info on SA market.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:58
Bill Buckler>(
An interesting situation. Both $A and $US Gold P$F charts ( based on closing prices ) now show double bottoms. The $A chart at $A 427 - the $US chart at $US 318. The charts are up at

Remember that G-7 meeting in Denver about five weeks ago? The communique issued was notable for a lack of any mention of currency stability, in sharp contrast to most previous G-7 meetings. Well, of course, we have certainly seen some currency *instability* since then. Thailand, The Phillippines, Malaysia, Brazil etc.

Also, in regard to Hashimoto's long forgotten ( on Wall St anyway ) Treasury selling threat. Since Mr Hashimoto made the threat, the Dollar is up against the Yen, and Treasury long-bond yields have fallen to their lowest levels since late last year. Gold in $US terms is down as well. In short, Japan's investment in U.S. debt paper has appreciated ( quite strongly ) since Mr Hashimoto's misinterpreted remarks. When that appreciation stops, that is the time to watch to see what Japan does.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:49
Front Korondy>(Korondy):
BTW, You can also get it from via $GL-TC ...


Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:43
Front Krondy & all ...>(Krondy & all ...):
Krondy, try and look for the ^THET quote for the TSE Gold index in real time.

All: Just to go out on a limb, IMVHO, this looks more like a dead cat bounce than up. The Freeport McMoran FCX is still down and the Gettchell Gold ( GGO ) is only up 1.23% . That's not enough movement for a $6 Gold and a 7 cent silver move. Gold/silver are leading the bigger stocks today. Maybe the enthusiasm is right but I have my doubts. Hope I'm wrong in my heart though.


Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:32
korondy Pls@Reply.Here>(Pls@Reply.Here):
George S. Cole: Where can I get real-time quotes for BOTH the Jo-berg and the TO gold index? I get real-time quotes on indeces for free from DBC,, PCQuote, etc. So, I watch XAU, HUI, and GOX like a hawk to avoid flying margin calls ( I own several HUI stocks. ) Thanks & keep up the good posts both here and on GoldEagle, too.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:31
Front John>(John):


On behalf of the professional investors who populate this group please Put a sock in it ... You're getting very boring and becoming useless to the group discussions. Make your point, stop bragging and become part of the information flow rather than a hindrance.

Thanks in advance


Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:26
TA 5-minute GOLD BAR CHART>(5-minute GOLD BAR CHART):
EARL: Your chart displays a class-book Flag break-out at the end of the day. Therefore, there are good odds gold will reach at least 328 soon.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:24
Byron @ Watch The Close>(@ Watch The Close):
Well, will the XAU and HUI do one of their famous ( infamous ) run ups at the close

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:20
George S. Cole counterattack>(counterattack):
Looks like the well financed counterattack against the very exposed shorts has begun even sooner than I anticipated; Let the massacre proceed and escalate.

KORODNY: A better indicator than HUI/XAU is the Johannesberg gold index versus the Toronto Gold Index, The higher cost more leveraged South Africans always outperform in gold bulls and underperform during gold bears. When the South Africans start to consistently outperform, we will know the gold bear is history and a new bull market has begun.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:20
With compliments to D.A. for the expression: Money had a good day today. Here is the 5 min chart of todays action. Ignore the long bar between early in the session. I was here reading gossip at the time so that period is longer than 5 min.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:17
Bob M>(
What are the mining stocks doing today?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:10
korondy Pls@Reply.Here>(Pls@Reply.Here):
To avoid misunderstanding: If HUI change is less than 1.48 * XAU change then BEARISH. If HUI Chng greater than XAU Chng then BULLISH. Else NEUTRAL. Example: at 15:07 EDT, XAU is up 2.63 which corresponds to a net change of 3.89 in the HUI ( 2.63 * 1.48 = 3.89 ) This would be NEUTRAL. HUI change of 3.9 or better would be BULLISH. Since the HUI is only up 2.48, this is BEARISH. Please note: I have been wrong before. Especially during the past two years. Happy trails.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:07


What a glorious time to be alive, in the time of threetwofive.

You've got your chance once again to listen to me, Goldbuggers.
This time, maybe you should.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:01
nomercy tanami>(tanami): were correct on lease rates.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 15:00
nomercy tanami>(tanami): were correct on lease rates.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:57
nailz WELCOME BACK !!!!!>(WELCOME BACK !!!!!):
TED .....WELCOME BACK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!And you even run gold up today !!!!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:53
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
After dropping back to about +5.40 after being at +6.30, gold has been moving back up into and after the closing. Currently at +6.0. That equates to 324.7 Aug. Silver looks like it may be next come tomorrow! Watch for a break above 4.30-4.32 Sept. It made it to 4.29 today. Platinum not fairing as well. Currently up 1.50. It may not want to play.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:52
Bob @...Asian exchanges derivative regulations and short covering>(@...Asian exchanges derivative regulations and short covering):
Does anyone know if the Asian gold derivative markets are a mirror or jittneyed through the US and London exchnages or do they have their own comfortable rules ?

We may have a small squeeze play in US but the fun is gone if the Asians can kite big short positions and, indeed, add to it in the overnight market due to convenient trading rules.

If the Asian gold derivative markets are independent of US and London - timing/momentum delay is more important here as all markets are eventually abitraged - and adequately capitalized it will be difficult to chase the shorts out of this market - assuming a good portion of the shorts operate from Asian bases.

The margin rules should be international in scope and breadth but remember what happended to Barings Bank from a rogue Brit trader esconed in Singapore ? Also, remember the overnight rally kills from Asian gold markets in Jan/Feb last ?

It would be appreciated if someone from the East or anyone who knows the Asian gold derivative game to advise us on the dynamics, players and capitalization of that gold market.

JIN...any ideas ?


Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:47
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Offical August close is $324.00 ............. Good night all!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:42
cherokee @heading-up-the-mountain-to-the-mothership!>(@heading-up-the-mountain-to-the-mothership!):
gold up!
silver up!
beans down!

in other words----yeeeeeeeehhaaaaaaaaaaaa----

sorry. the exuberance made me irrational.

gsc--regardless of irregardless, it has no home in the dictionary!; ) )


how about purchasing a few lap-tops ( 200mhz or faster ) to use
as loaners when the bastions of this site vacation. two weeks
with-out a ted, makes me want to turn red. ( der ) be sure to
include a blazing fast modem with satellite up-link capability!

where's that guru da? got a silver feather with golden
irredesence emanating from an internal power source waiting.

for da--if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have
i have stood on the shoulders of giants!
isaac newton

da-you have a permanent space on the smoke-signal mobile my friend.
the other giants await your arrival. smoke the pipe of knowledge,
the smoke will signal others awaiting their turn.

cherokee!; ) rider-of-the-phoenix ( brad ) , driver-of-the-ssm for the good
of all non-sleepwalkers. imm

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:41
cherokee @heading-up-the-mountain-to-the-mothership!>(@heading-up-the-mountain-to-the-mothership!):
gold up!
silver up!
beans down!

in other words----yeeeeeeeehhaaaaaaaaaaaa----

sorry. the exuberance made me irrational.

gsc--regardless of irregardless, it has no home in the dictionary!; ) )


how about purchasing a few lap-tops ( 200mhz or faster ) to use
as loaners when the bastions of this site vacation. two weeks
with-out a ted, makes me want to turn red. ( der ) be sure to
include a blazing fast modem with satellite up-link capability!

where's that guru da? got a silver feather with golden
irredesence emanating from an internal power source waiting.

for da--if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have
i have stood on the shoulders of giants!
isaac newton

da-you have a permanent space on the smoke-signal mobile my friend.
the other giants await your arrival. smoke the pipe of knowledge,
the smoke will signal others awaiting their turn.

cherokee!; ) rider-of-the-phoenix ( brad ) , driver-of-the-ssm for the good
of all non-sleepwalkers. imm

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:38
Bob @...US Govt Gold >(@...US Govt Gold ):
Larryn: If the US govt sold its gold the market could not absorb it anywhere near current prices. If we assume that the US govt got $99 per oz. for its 262 Mill Tonnes, or about $26 Billion US, it would depend what the govt did with the proceeds. Let us assume it receives US dollars.

If the US govt burned the US$ proceeds gold would take a decade to recover after supply was redistributed in the market and the gold mining industry consolidated under a few Big Boys.

If the US govt, following my assumptions, were to buy-back its debt from the market there would be a redistribution of $US dollars in the market and a very very small portion of US total debt would be cancelled.

The US$ would fall and gold would rise until equalibrium values you suggest.

The chances are that the US would shore-up its international currency with gold backing if an attempt is made by foreign powers to chase the dollar from its Eagles nest - remember, the US Treasury is on record to defend a strong US dollar as national policy.


Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:34
capnkev @home>(@home):
D.A you is DA MAN!!, nice call thnx again

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:31
Byron Now is the time for all good men...>(Now is the time for all good men...):
If anybody has the real time gold closing for Aug Gold in New York woulc be appreciated. : )

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:27
EB KGB...Mobil Credit...Call me...>(KGB...Mobil Credit...Call me...):
I'll send you my credit card # for some gas. Fill ALL the trucks ( or none ) . This is no time to make Party. Get off the wodka and get yer ass to Japan! I want to see what you got...I want the world to see what you got.


Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:27
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Eldorado: I am in Brisbane Australia, because it is 4:30am in the morning I will probally not know whats happened until lunchtime when I get out bed!!!!!! I've got to see my stocks tomorrow, it will be good!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:24
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Overnight markets should be a blast as they play catch up! HAR! Maybe there will be a whole lot of shorts there that NEED to cover! Either that or they'll just plain dump on it!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:24
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):
Everybody is waiting for the close of Comex in New York. In about 6 minutes.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:18
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Scott -- At least so far, 325 August.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:15
Bob @...Euro doomed by history... still too early yet>(@...Euro doomed by history... still too early yet):
GSC: You know that good intentions that make good sense often do not workout. The French, Germans, British, and Italians have been on opposite sides in two world wars this century. Hell, the Italians were all other the place the last war ;- )

The problem with the Euro is that it really will become the Euro-DM and the other nationalists that form the Great EC will not go along for the ride without clear benefits. The Brits are having a difficult time with giving up Sterling. The French voted socialist. The Italians still hone their skillfull organized chaos economy ( oxymoronic economy ? ) .

Europe is doomed to history - Bosnia is an extreme example.

I suggest that the old European Allies will stick together and hide under the financial skirt of the US Treasury and FED. The alternative would be to hedge with the Japanese YEN - but the Japs are feared for modern day 'Pearl Harbour' export attacks. Better the devil you know than the one you think you know...

But, you never know, a visionary may 'once again' rise in Europe that sweeps all old sentiments aside and raises the spectre of US world domination as the new marching call. We hope that this time it won't be
a call to arms.


Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:09
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Eldorado: what has it maxed out at?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:07
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
So far, it hasn't been a particularly good day to be long either silver or platinum and short the gold. Maybe they'll catch up.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 14:05
KGB @in Hiding>(@in Hiding):
COMRADE KUSTOMERS: Truk OK, stil in Albania. Driver lok for deposit kans and botls enough by gas for truk. Vil be soon vith deliver. Not to vorry.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:57
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:56
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Definitely looking more real now! So far, up 6.30 and climbing!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:54
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
We are on the move again folks, watch them gold stuff

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:54
Richard Burke Egg-on- face>(Egg-on- face):
Sorry, I first caught absolute numbers for XAU and HUI - actually XAU up 2.37% and HUI 1.54% - According to Korondy this may be a fake out unless HUI closes higher tha XAU.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:52
LSteve @bottom>(@bottom):
Ted, good to see you back, I missed your attitude. BTW, my paper, the Kansas City Star had on the front page, DOW hits 8000. Not only does Peter Monk believe that Gold will go up when the EU gets settled but, Martin Armstrong of PEI says, The present bear market could last into early next year. The danger of Central Bank sales will then disappear - as the participants in the Euro will then be defined. Heck, I've been waiting since the spring of 1993, I can wait another 6 months. Hey Tort, had a family reunion last weekend and discovered that I have a lawyer in the family who likes gold stocks. Your not alone.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:50
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Gold starts to come up a little and CBs gate crash.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:46
capnkev @oopps>(@oopps):
creep up in GOLD that is, sorry.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:45
2weeks Where_Are_They?>(Where_Are_They?):
Isn't 1:45 PM East Coast time right about when the Big Shorts have been busting in every day? Are they out of ammo or did they oversleep?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:44
capnkev @QUIET>(@QUIET):
SSSSHHHH....we want to have creep up 3-4 bucks a day so the media wont announce it too loudly, otherwise we'll ruin THEIR plan

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:41
Richard Burke On Gulf of Georgia>(On Gulf of Georgia):
Following up Korondy's earlier post - HUI up 1.98%; XAU up 1.93%. Therefore, move up positive so far. I went long on TVX and ECO this morning. Waiting now for another positive move and will also go into PGD and TMO ( all TSE ) . All of these stocks have good leverage against the XAU.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:25
EB problems with PL deliveries? >(problems with PL deliveries? ):
Who woulda thunk it...

Strap in!


Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:23
vronsky THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)>(THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)):
“Why has the U.S. - fountainhead of antigold sentiment - NOT SOLD any of its gold while encouraging its allies to sell” - Cole’s Market Insights poignant question:

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:23
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Just think, if one guy can make the price jump like it did earlier, can't wait for the rest of them to get into the action. Once they think gold is as low as its going, they will be fighting to cover themselves at the lowest price to reduce their losses. A few more bucks and all hell will break loose.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:18
Larryn gold selling>(gold selling):
BOB.. You make much sense with your comments about smaller central banks selling their gold and buying US debt. They are betting on the US maintaining a high value currency. I suspect the fact that we have the largest hoard of gold is important. If the US were to sell some, there would be a short term drop in the gold price followed by many investors bailing out of the dollar, and a subsequent long term move up in metals as the dollar hit the slippery slope.

Since Rubin probable knows this, the US won't be selling.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:16
BillD Russian Trucks...problems>(Russian Trucks...problems):
This is from the posted by scott...

Russian shipments of palladium to Japan resumed this week after a six month suspension, but
problems appear to be developing with shipments of platinum, which have not arrived yet, traders

WHAT'S GOING ON, I Wonder with those Trucks?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:13
EB George Cole? aka George S. Cole?>(George Cole? aka George S. Cole?):
what happened to the S? Is this the new and imroved GSC? The leaner, meaner?


Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:13
RJ: GC up $4.60! You dirty dog. All this time, you were planning to go long GC and wouldn't give us a chance to set our positions. ..... ( :- ) )

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:10
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
This explains the $5 jump.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:09
George Cole gold and gold stocks>(gold and gold stocks):
Gold stocks not up that much considering today's big jump in bullion. Investors obviously doubt gold can hold its gains. But if the yellow surpises by going up AND STAYING UP, look for quick 5-10% jumps in many of the gold mutual funds.

Bob; Isn't one of the unstated purposes of the Euro to break free from U.S. financial domination?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:08
EB BillD...Idon'tknow...>(BillD...Idon'tknow...):
Prices are increasing instead of decreasing as would happen if the trucks didn't show. NO? I seem to recall that shipments were to resume to Japan today. ( which would have been last night, from my location ) . If anyone has info feel free to post...Panda?


russia supplies 20% of the world platinum and 60% of the world palladium...

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:01
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Kitcos' 24 hour chart just scared the .... out of me!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:01
Larryn prove it>(prove it):
John/hepcat... I'm sure there are several others on Kitco who have been in cash for a long time waiting for the bottom, so don't feel like the Lone Ranger. When you find the bottom, let us know. IMO, this is a serious rally and most of my money is in, so naturally, nothing personal, I hope you are wrong.

I enjoy some of your comments, but can you tell us at what price of gold you sold, and did you make any money on the big slide by shorting? Did you put your money where your mouth/PC is, or is this just a bragging contest?

Where is Short Bull? I've been waiting for your next prediction, too.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 13:00
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Did the price just drop like a cat or what?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:58
BillD White metals?>(White metals?):
E.B......WHATCHA GOT on the other white metal shipments Something new?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:58
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Speculators covering their ass more like it, but if it is commericals then the price will hold.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:57
korondy Pls@Reply.Here>(Pls@Reply.Here):
FAKE-OUT ALERT! The XAU is largely comprised of companies that hedge themselves by selling many years' production forward ( i.e.: ABX is 34% of XAU ) . The HUI contains only companies that do not hedge. The historical ratio of HUI to XAU is 1.48 so all things being equal, the HUI should move 1.48 times the move in the XAU to yield the same percentage move. I have noticed that when the HUI underperforms the XAU, gold has a downward bias, and conversely, when HUI outperforms the XAU, gold has a positive bias. So far each time the HUI underperformed the XAU on the positive side, it has been a fake out and gold sold off to make a new low. The most reliable sign of a trend change has been: gold down, XAU down, HUI up. Please comment.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:56
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
At about 2:30 - 3:00 we will get the trend for the day, either a kick up or profit take down. I don't know who just bought but I hope it was commercials. If it was the speculators selling short are screwed.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:52
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
One thing I could expect would be a sharp quick drop to 322 in the Aug gold. Then a punch back up, through, and away to higher highs. Just to kick out some new weak longs. Keeps them biting their nails!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:50
Novice @Eatin crow and lovin it!!>(@Eatin crow and lovin it!!):
Ted: Me a CONTRARY indicator? Hey, its great to be useful for something!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:47
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
I just love it when a trend line gets busted! Aug gold trend busted to the upside once it poked it's nose over the decending line at 320.5 in the intra-day chart. It was, shall we say, 'marvelous'! Irregardless what it does from here, it was Goooood!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:45
EB shipments must be delayed again...oh dear>(shipments must be delayed again...oh dear):
The Other white metal!



donald-2653 words in 69 minutes? not that i'm counting...whew!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:44
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
^DJI 12:41PM 8059.09 +20.21 +0.25%
^XAU 12:41PM 93.03 +2.14 +2.35%
XAU went to about +2.50 and down to +1.90 seems to be holding +2.00 to +2.20

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:40
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
EB: Thanks, thats a pretty good site, mmmn bookmark I think. thanks again! : )

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:36
So*Ham Trends>(Trends):
Larry: Your comments on TREND*s posting are excellent.

Trend: I wonder whether you*re Edward Allen Toppel who wrote the excellent book Zen in the Markets - Confessions of a Samurai Trader . You sound so much like him ! As I*ve discussed briefly with him, picking tops and bottoms are risky business but there*re a few people around who have done it successfully. The ability of accurate forecasts, however, does not in itself necessary mean the forecaster nor the followers can have great profitable trades. The forecaster can for sure attract publicity to either sell newsletters, hot line services and or entice traders to attend his/her training courses !

No matter how accurate the forecasts are, what make a trader successful or not depends on the trader himself. Forecasts are extremely, if not impossible, to have 100% accuracy over a long period of time. The shorter the time frame used for each forecast, the less accurate the forecasts tend to be. And nothing is for sure until it happens. Price alone is the final judge of the market, no matter what you or I discuss it either in fundamental, technical or psychological ( sentiments ) terms. Each of us has our own beliefs, bias or rational analyses. But price alone will either justify or refute¡@them.It*s more worthwhile to improve one*s self-understanding than rush to attend courses, subscribe newsletters or hotlines run by those with proven track records in telling how you can trade profitably. Remember : It is much easier said than done. Self-control is a prime factor in successful trading, it*s much more important than accurate forecasts.

Though I believe that the current mania in the financial market will be tragic when it ends. Yet, this belief has to be proved or disproved by history in hindsight. Maybe a miracle happens just in time to stop the bubble bursts. Only time will tell .....

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:35
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Scott -- The 323 area is Aug golds recent high area. It's been resistance and now is it's chance to make it support.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:32
Reify @ Verified>(@ Verified):
Nice NO?
Just verified several sources, and also checked loud mouth JOHN, and we seem to be going up. A pleasure, even if short lived, due us all.
My long term charts still show nothing but up.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:32
EB Spot or Futures?>(Spot or Futures?):
scott, eld. Try this for ten minute delayed:

fwiw...there were half a dozen people on the pulpet yesterday hugging and high fiving and swapping spit. What madness... ( I forget who posted this info but I have been watching to humor myself )

away...and still waiting for the trucks

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:27
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Eldorado: I'm with you, gold needs to break the shorts psychology, then the real gain will be seen. 324-325 aught to get thing going, I'm surprised 323 is holding... I'm impressed.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:26

To everyone who says I only post on days when gold is going down -
What do you call this?

( Now, if I could get y'all to agree to post only on days when gold is going up,
but that's another fantasy sponsored by Sealy Posturepedic )

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:24
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Until/unless the other metals react more positively, this may wind up being a dead cat bounce. Aug gold is currently holding the 323.3 area quite decently. Perhaps it'll turn it into some pseudo support. If it doesn't do to much more, we could see some even lower numbers in the next week or two than what we've seen to date.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:20
capnkev @home>(@home):

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:20
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Check out Kitco 24hour chart, NOW THATS WHAT I LIKE TO SEE!!!!!!!!!!!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:18
MoreGold @History>(@History):
If my source is right, the Klonike Gold rush began exactly 100 years ago today, in 1897.
For WALL-STREETERS only: YES, Gold did exist 100 years ago......

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:13
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Eldorado: that ok, I can usually get a feal from Yahoo XAU quotes to what is happening, I just need to wait 10min for gold update. : ) Hope we see 324 today, that might set the ball or bull rolling!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:13
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Unless they quickly push it down, there is nothing to stop it 'till the 335+ area! Currently testing the Aug 323 area. Mostly from the top so far!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:10

September gold now quoted at $340, up $17.80

( This fantasy brought to you by Sealy Posturepedic )

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:10
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Seems to be holding a fair gain, this is good, today could be the deadline for some shorts.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:09
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Scott -- I use a couple that are fee based. But under Barts web resources button, you'll find DGSE and they are pretty decent at times. Got to have backups!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:08

MemoryMan ( Saigon ) :

Interesting questions.

Question 1: There is only one Vietnam and it would depend on whose side they would join with.

Question 2: California's state productivity ( or some equivalent U.S.'s Gross National/Domestic Product ) would probably increase ten-fold within 6 months ( : ) )

IMO of course....

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:05
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Buying was comming from Asia and London. USA will probally shoot at the bull. But you never know eh!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:02
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
322.25 up 4.30
Eldorado: can you post your quote site please?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 12:00
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Been up as much as 5.50 now. If it can hold above the 323 area, could be we'll soon see some even nicer numbers.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 11:53
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Looks like some shorts are short eh, just a taste for soon.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 11:49
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Gold making a move. Currently up 3.30.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 11:47
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Typical pre Asian close bull run at the moment, gold up 2.70, wait for after 12:00 for the drop back to lameness.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 11:46
MemoryMan Saigon>(Saigon):
Hey Gunrunner. How long do you think the N Koreans would last if they brought in N Vietnam? How would California survive with all those S Korean refugees?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 11:44
D.A. snort.snort>(snort.snort):

Guess what's the strongest currency in the world today? Hint: Heavy, yellow, lustrous and hated.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 11:43
Bob support of the gold reserve system>( support of the gold reserve system):
When you think carefully about the demand and supply of money a reserve system is vital to the liquidity and trust placed by all in the system of global finance and exchange of goods and services.

The gold reserve system was instituted to provide a reference by which government banks would regulate the amount of national currency that could be printed and hold value in relation to other international currencies.

The dynamic mechanics behind cross-currency valuation is not elementary but the idea is simple enough. The gold standard required governments to restrict national currency supply by a multiple of the gold owned by the nation.

Gold had a long history as money and it was difficult to fake due to its chemical properties and weight; and, most important, scarce due to its lack of abundance on earth.

When you think about it gold is an excellent choice for a reserve currency. Gold's history as a precious metal in scarce supply provided an incentive for global explorers to seek new lands and discoveries. America was discovered by men searching for gold and a passge to the riches of the East.

The mining of gold created employment income that stimulated development of towns and transportation with other economic base mine developments. ( You didn't need a B.Sc. in computer science to be a miner. )

Gold was hard to find; generated economic activity; stinulated global discoveries; indirectly created economic infrastructure whenever found in significant mineable quantities. So it was logical and reasonable to use gold as a reference point in issuance of global currencies.

Over time, however, some major gold producing countries ( Canada ) decided to reduce the amount of gold owned in favour of G7 currencies and govt securities in proportion to the reletive economic strength of each power country. ( It is important to note the linchpin rationale for gold to divest gold in favour of US securities: canada is a subsidiary of the US, not quite the 51st state but certainly close. canada does 80% of its export business with the US and, with few exceptions, most of its significant industries are foreign controlled or owned - principally by US based global enterprises. )

As time rolled onward and the Information Age took root in the US economy a transformation or revolution in software, computing, and telecommunication industries created a competitive advantage for US based global conglomerates. The US economy ( and the world ) resurrected itself from the high-inflation of the mid-70's and then the stagflation of the 80-81 deep recession and slow decline of inflation thereafter from double digit growth rates. However, Govt deficit spending continued unabated since the 1970's irrespective of the neo-conservative respite in the mid-80's and fiscal conservatism now espoused by even British Labour.

One way, it seems, that currency and govt debt could flourish in the international financial community was for the gold standard to deminish as a reference point. Afterall, if gold were marketed as a world currency standard all other currencies and govt securities based thereon would continually devalue in relation to gold and the US currency slogan In God we Trust would to be supplemented with ...everyone else pays in gold.

This decline in the gold standard was accomplished in stages over the past 20 odd years. Canada, the only proxy country in the world ( that is, a US proxy ) , started the ball rolling by reducing its gold stocks in favour of US securities and the Japanese followed by replanting enormous $US cash inflows sourced from surplus exports back into US govt securities.

The Japs political choice was obvious and perhaps the single most strategic event that signified the end of the gold standard.

Clearly, the Japanese could have supported the gold standard but instead favoured US debt securities to keep the US govt happy while Jap trading blocks flooded the US markets with exports and US smoke stack industries disappeared along with blue collar union jobs--- BTW, does anyone hear about the AFL-CIO anymore ? Do you remember the good old days when the President curried favour with the Steelworkers and Autoworkers ?

So the Japs put their faith in the US govt generally and the US Treasury and FED in particular.

History indicates that the Japanese really harmed the gold standard and it will take the Japanese to resurrect it or, at minimum, the collective power of the EC to bring the world's currency back into order using a standard that can not be increased at the will of two Washington guys who direct the US Treasury and the US FED System from time to time.

One could certainly argue that the Washington Twins are merely the face of Wall Street or Main Street from time to time but the fact remains the same. The US Treasury and FED have replaced the gold standard.

One justification for allowing this new standard to continue - ironically - is that the US Treasury+FED own the largest gold horde in the world and the US currency is somewhat tied to the gold standard ...afterall.

The logic here is why should the lesser economic powers hold gold when the final arbitrar of global economic well-being holds sufficent gold to back its securities ( and the Japs don't seem to mind anyway... ) .

So this is how we get into this doo doo with gold price. The trend is the friend of the men with the Yen.

Now, if I could only get Peter Munk to blow-away these annoying gold spec
shorts I may be able to retire comfortably !


Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 11:39
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
August gold is making me dizzy today. I might go play with my yo yo or even better watch Telemall shopping on TV and buy a Thighmaster and a pair of Blueblockers.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 11:34
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Crude being nice to me today.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 11:31

Scott - Managers nixed that idea in the U.S.

Hey everyone - Do you know how to quiet a raging Mooney?
One word: McCoca-Flag

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 11:25
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
McDonalds has a 60 second for your meal to be served or you get a free Big Mac in Australia. Don't know why they just don't give to 2 for 1 and call it quits.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 11:24
O.K. V-man, I'll take the bait:

There is no way North Korea is going to start anything. I do not want to get into the reasons why on this site. Suffice it to say others don't want them to... ( ESPECIALLY the U. S. of A. because they would get their butts kicked down to their Antarctican environmental monitoring stations )

So, if some of you out there are waiting for some catostrphic, out of the blue MAJOR ( note the emphasis ) act of war in the next month or three to prompt a turnaround in gold/currency/financial markets, do not waste your options play money.

Have a nice day ( : ) )

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 11:22
TED @mooney>(@mooney):
Hi Mooney and yes it's ME....Am out the door for Sydney and when things slow down I'll get off an e-mail to you about my 23 day odyssey...and my latest real estate moves...I'm torn about buyin more AU shares before I close the damn door...See ya later! Tort: A missile is headed right at ya

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 11:20

Mr. Mooney - How's that new diet? I know McDonald's had a 55 cent promotion
earlier this summer. It worked about as well as your 65 cent promotion. Don't
see you much on the Flag channel anymore, Mr. Mooney. Is it because you're
too weak to type?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 11:10
Ted - Is that you Bro? How'd the vacation go? Did you manage to get away from that hectic pace of life on that point of land on Cape Breton Island?
Check Bart's 24 hour gold chart and you will see that at about 10:00 AM on Tuesday AND today the price takes off ( upwards at about a 60 degree angle.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 11:05
vronsky North Korea building up for WAR!!!>(North Korea building up for WAR!!!):
Ron, Donald, BillD, Gunnrunner: In the wee hours a month ago we received an anonymous email which talked about WAR IN KOREA. See ANONYMOUS GURU:

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 11:00
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Looks like DOW going below 8000 again. Quick panic..... sell sell sell.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 10:55
TED @mooney>(@mooney):
Hi Mooney: Excuse my IGNORANCE but what happened to gold on Tuesday's gold action as I wasn't in contact with the markets...

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 10:55
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
7/17/97 -- 9:26 AM

South Korean police: possible North Korean assassination

SEOUL, South Korea ( AP ) - South Korean police said they tightened security today after an intelligence report that North Korea is attempting to assassinate a high-ranking defector.

Police stepped up security at air and sea ports and were watching for two suspected assassins allegedly sent by North Korea to kill Hwang Jang Yop, officials said on condition of anonymity.

Hwang, 74, a former member of North Korea's top policy-making body, the Central Committee of the ruling Workers Party, defected to Seoul in April.

In a nationally televised news conference last week, Hwang warned that North Korea is fully prepared to unleash a war against South Korea as a desperate way out of its economic and food crisis.

Denouncing Hwang as a betrayer, North Korea vowed to retaliate.

Since his arrival in Seoul on April 20, Hwang has been under the protective custody of the Agency for National Security Planning.

Hwang, known as the chief architect of North Korea's ruling guidance, juche or self-reliance, is the highest-ranking Pyongyang official ever to defect to Seoul.

In February, Lee Han Young, 36, a cousin of a former mistress of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, was killed by an unidentified gunman outside Seoul. Lee defected to Seoul in the mid-1980s.

South Korean police suspected that it was the work of North Korean agents but failed to find clues.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 10:54
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Can't wait till the speculators selling short have to actually buy physical gold. Apart from them losing money, it will be a pleasure watching the gold price go up by bidding between them and the commercials. Anyone know when the maggots have to pay up?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 10:50
Daytraders - Interesting chart pattern right now on gold as today appears almost as an exact repeat of Tuesday from 10:00 onwards.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 10:48
Front page headlines in local paper about dow breaking the 8000 barrier; sign of a top?......How many here had the dow on the front pages of their local paper ( not the business section )

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 10:41
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
7/17/97 -- 9:38 AM

Thai police raid foreign brokerages

BANGKOK, Thailand ( AP ) - As Thailand frantically tries to stave off economic collapse, police raided the offices of at least two foreign brokerage companies Thursday to investigate who spread rumors that five commercial banks would be shut down.

The unprecedented raid signaled increasing frustration by Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh's administration over its failure to stop the economy from a free-fall that has escalated this month.

Squads of uniformed police at Capital Nomura Securities PCL and ABN AMRO Hoare Govett Asia Investment Research Ltd. demanded fax lists, tore through desks and attempted to read computer files.

The search seemed to center on the fax lists, which identify clients who receive regular reports from the brokerages. Also, police interrogated stock analysts about a rash of rumors that the central banks would close. The speculation jolted the stock market last week, prompting both the Thai central bank and the Thai Bankers Association to issue formal denials.

``They started with small talk, then asked for my views on the Thai economy and how I regarded these rumors about banks,'' said an analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity.

George Morgan, country manager for ABN AMRO, issued a statement that his company was positive toward the Thai stock market and planned to invest $60 million in the country by acquiring Asia Securities Trading Co. Ltd.

Tuesday, an aide to Chavalit said the government knew who was behind the rumors. Chavalit said Monday he believes a disgruntled person opposing government policy had started the rumors.

As Thailand appears to be lurching into its biggest economic crisis in 13 years, following a period of explosive growth financed largely by overseas investment, foreign executives say that some politicians and regulators have begun blaming foreigners for troubles.

An executive at one targeted brokerage said police believed the fax originated from Bangkok's Sathorn Road, where several foreign institutions are based, including Capital Nomura and AMRO.

Thirty policemen, some high-ranking, went through AMRO's office interrogating and photographing telephone operators, receptionists, analysts and top executives, witnesses said.

``Some people kept right on working like this happens every day,'' said one executive, who requested anonymity. ``But most were in such shock they could not continue to work.''

Morgan, who is also president of the Foreign Brokerage Association, paced nervously as uniformed officers interrogated his brokers in a conference room next to his office. He declined to talk to the press.

Thailand's financial sector is in a crisis due to bad loans made to property companies that overbuilt during the boom years and now cannot sell a glut of housing and office space. The government shut down 16 finance companies early this month.

Chavalit ordered a flotation of the currency, the baht, July 2, after repeated speculative attacks weakened foreign reserves. The baht promptly lost 15 percent of its value.


Bart, have you considered setting up a separate forum for anal retentive investors?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 10:20
Uris @DFW Airport>(@DFW Airport):
Bart@Kitco Could you post a brief explanation of why there is always
approx. a $10.00 difference in the price of US Eagles and the SA
Krugerrand ?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 10:19
Oh, please, please, give me your respect, Kitconans. I slaver for it.
I long for the respect of manchildren who hide behind pseudonyms,
proudly displaying their generitalia to passers-by.

It's not like we are blue-water diving here, where disorientation is
a problem even for experts. We are standing knee-deep in a wading
pool, and I am wailing on y'all while you are trying to get out by
tunneling through the plastic bottom.

Step out of the pool, Kitcokeheads. RJ is cupping his silver
like it was his life-preserver, only he's about to get dashed
against the rocks. Talk about an agenda. RJ wants to play
king of the hill and his weapon is long silver?

I am Hepcat, and I continue to dominate this site with my sagacity.
That and the fact that I am always more correct than anyone else who
posts here, and I don't expend any effort in doing it.

No wasted energy + always correct = The Black Cat of analysis

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 10:17
Smithy WhatTheHeck>(WhatTheHeck):
Earl, thanks for posting the gold/bond chart.Since the late seventies at least there has been a constant correlation between interest rates and the gold price: higher interest rates and higher gold prices, and vice versa.With the long bond having just broken 6.5% and likely headed lower, plus yesterday's CPI of 0.1%, the bear scenario continues to be supported. Who CARES?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 09:30
REB na>(na):
Re Donald 6:01 editorial. This makes interesting reading if one substitutes USA for Thailand.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 09:27
cyclist momentous@time>(momentous@time):
FWIW, 29 year cycle due to top out this summer.After this market decline,government price controls to follow,deflationary marketpsychology.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 09:15
cyclist bottoming@topping>(bottoming@topping):
FWIW,Stockmarkets cycletop July 18,gold cycle bottom July 21-23.
Good trading.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 09:08
nomercy D.A.>(D.A.):
...thanks for your comments...I got the info. from Steven Kaplan's web page...I'll e-mail him your comments

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 08:49
panda @this.dosen'!>(@this.dosen'!):
Good morning TED, Tort. I'm having a gawd awfull time getting in to this here web site. I don't know why. Other sites seem to work OK. Hmmm. 'They' must be out to get me! :-0

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 08:48
Cherokee--We must reconvene our grain summit. E-mail me at your convenience.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 08:46
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NOMERCY: You may recall an excellent piece Steve Puetz did about two weeks ago detailing the difference between economic conditions and financial conditions. Stocks are reacting to the good economic news and ignoring the horrible financial news we see this morning from the Pacific Rim. Stock buyers do so at their peril.

An afterthought on the Korea news. The Australian press reported that South Korea was the likely purchaser of the Australian gold. I wonder what they will do now that they seem to need dollars more than gold?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 08:45
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NOMERCY: You may recall an excellent piece Steve Puetz did about two weeks ago detailing the difference between economic conditions and financial conditions. Stocks are reacting to the good economic news and ignoring the horrible financial news we see this morning from the Pacific Rim. Stock buyers do so at their peril.

An afterthought on the Korea news. The Australian press reported that South Korea was the likely purchaser of the Australian gold. I wonder what they will do now that they seem to need dollars more than gold?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 08:45
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NOMERCY: You may recall an excellent piece Steve Puetz did about two weeks ago detailing the difference between economic conditions and financial conditions. Stocks are reacting to the good economic news and ignoring the horrible financial news we see this morning from the Pacific Rim. Stock buyers do so at their peril.

An afterthought on the Korea news. The Australian press reported that South Korea was the likely purchaser of the Australian gold. I wonder what they will do now that they seem to need dollars more than gold?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 08:44
D.A. a.few.observations>(a.few.observations):

The little birds which informs me of the metals market action have opined that yesterdays end of day bashing in silver was engineered by the same player who has been at it all along. They are in fact a fund. They have roped in the technical trend followers and blasted the stops of the 'Disciplined' traders. Today we go in and by another large load of silver options. I will post some interesting calculations later in the day to give you an idea of the absurdity of what is being offered. There is no guarantee we will win our bet. In fact we are going to be large underdogs. However, if we do win, the payoff will be phenomenal. These are tickets that are worth owning.

Looks like today will be another massive up day for the dollar. The other two 'strong' currencies ( BP & JY ) are now heading south to join the rest of the civilized world. I know not when, but soon we shall follow. Then we shall have a complete cycle of competitive devaluation. Once our run for the bottom begins the metals will respond in dollar terms, just like they are now responding in JY and BP terms.

An interesting point about sentiment. If you will notice, over the last few days the price of gold in dollars is essentially unchanged in dollars are HIGHER in every other currency. Yet we have an ever increasing call here for lower prices and questions about 'how do I get short?,. News follows price. People are now fully aware of the 'reasons' for golds decline. Even though the move from 332 to 314 was largely engineered by a single fund ( same goes for silver ) , people are now extrapolating this to large scale macro forces. Its ^&%^&%.

Nomercy: Gold lease rates are all quoted in annualized terms. For confirmation all you need do is look at the difference between August and September gold. If the lease rates were as you say the contracts would be in backwardation. They are not.

Glenn: Be very careful in writing naked calls. There is no guarantee that the market will move up in a continuous fashion. Though it may look like a line on the charts, the reality may be that no volume is taking place and therefore there is no possibility of delta hedging. In addition spreads may widen to the point where maintaining the hedge becomes far too costly. For a recent example one only has to look down the aisle in the PGM pit.

Heading for the big city. More later. Good luck to all.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 08:14
nomercy donald>(donald):
..just some thoughts on the bull market...could it be the Feds are being conned by big brokerage houses who could've a few reporters on the take...notice how expectations are always exceeded and CNN today reports that Japan's trade surplus only grew 27% when they were expecting 60%...
...I must go and buy some coloured glasses...I'm missing out
...they also reported that Microsoft plans on hiring 3600 more employees in the coming year, expanding its workforce by NEARLY 19% ( they have 22,000 ) world wide. my view that's their major problem to cope with...higher unemployment worldwide... Australia, Canada, Germany & France have 'admitted' high numbers ( probably larger ) . The US includes part-timers...their minimum wage is a laughable $4.25 per hour ( below poverty level ) and they're bragging, when the MOST of their citizens standard of dropping every year.
To-day's Dow clearly is a reflection of their economy...the big boys are getting richer...the masses poorer....
Middle income is being squeezed..and are now hoping on the DOW!
...cycles haven't been abolished it'll end as ' can fool some of the people some of the time etc. etc.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 08:14
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold up 1.85 and Silver up 3 cents...S+P futures up 1.75...

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 08:10
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NOMERCY: There was a story in our local paper about our rural 6th grade class. The kids are playing the market with a hypothetical stock portfolio their teacher helps them pick. I hope that he is training them on how to use their Visa card to pay for it.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 07:49
Ted, the cannon's pointed at you and I just lit off the powder. I'm off to the spa.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 07:42
TED @Tort>(@Tort):
Tort: Got some great stories to tell from my island odyssey and one of the people who welcomed me back the most was Mr.Big himself...Will get an e-mail off to ya later today or tomorrow as I've got alot of errands and BS to do.....

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 07:35
TED @Tort>(@Tort):
Tort: GREAT ONE!! and a sign of the times...Missed your jokes in my stress-filled odyssey....Did I bring back a turn around for the depressed yellow stuff and is this the time to jump in fer more...

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 07:34
Tortfeasor Panda>(Panda):
That is interesting. I there were more of me I would bring a class action suit against my two former commodities brokers. What a bunch of losers. Actually It was I who was the loser, but I won't be losing from investing with them again. I received some papers to file some beaurocratic complaint against my broker. I haven't take the time to do it yet, I guess wondering if it is worth the time.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 07:31
TED @cherokee>(@cherokee):
Cherokee ( 00:25 ) Thanks Bro! But ain't that cat creature a bud of Mooney?....Mornin Panda!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 07:30
Tortfeasor Joke of the day>(Joke of the day):
OK Ted, good morning and here's the joke.

A yuppie opened the door of his BMW, when suddenly a car came along and hit the door, ripping it off completely. When the police arrived at the scene, the yuppy was complaining bitterly about the damage to his precious BMW. Officer, look what they've done to my Beeeeemer!!!, he whined. You yuppies are so materialistic, you make me sick!!!, retorted the officer. You're so worried about your stupid BMW, that you didn't even notice that your left arm was ripped off!!! Oh noooo... replied the yuppy, finally noticing the bloody left shoulder where his arm once was, Where's my Rolex!!!!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 07:22
nomercy donald>(donald):
...Peter Munk, in his interview last week, pointed his finger to the EC for gold's bear market; my read, is that he expects ( wants? ) gold to remain in the doghouse for the next 6 to 9 months, until EC formalizes golds role, in backing the new euro currency...
...Placer's CEO, basically said the same thing, saying that he had never seen so much negativism in gold in his last 16 years.
...perhaps they're applying reverse psychology, to lure the funds in a trap ( wishful thinking? ) which presently remains the only Major reason for a rally, though there's a lot of smoke throughout, the parabolic dow, clinton case ( s ) , volatility in currencies, and above all unexpected and uncontrollable surprises for the spin doctors. They must be commended, for the great sustaining hype, as more and more are jumping on the bandwagon and see the world through coloured glasses. ( my son who's in 2nd year college, told me that his teacher was reccommending his class to buy mutual funds ) !

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 07:18
TED @Mikesheller>(@Mikesheller):
Mike Sheller: Thanks for the welcome back! EBN Gold up 1.55 and Silver up 3 cents....Like you when you went to Florida,I missed my friends at Kitco and am glad to be back...I'm thinking of buying ABX or HM this morning and would appreciate some comments ....Tort: Where's the mornin joke?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 07:07
panda @sign.of.the.times?>(@sign.of.the.times?):
Tortfeasor -- In the past two weeks I have received two letters. One from my soon to be, former broker, and another from my real time data provider. What do they have in common? Both letters were to inform me of a class action lawsuit pending against them. Go figure? These things must 'always' happen in bull markets, right? :- ) )

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 07:03
nomercy more reaction to RBA sale>(more reaction to RBA sale):
The Federal Opposition has renewed its call for an investigation into Treasurer Peter Costello's role in the Reserve Bank's decision to sell off its gold deposits.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 07:01
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NOMERCY: All that bad news from the Pacific Rim and it seems that there is no reaction in gold or silver. The European stock markets don't seem to care either. What does it take to stop this Stock Bull and Gold Bear?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 06:59
nomercy Steve Perth>(Steve Perth):
..a follow up on your story...Conflict of Interest?..naanh! this certainly inspires confidence in Howard & Costello

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 06:43
Leaner shesstilldarkinBC>(shesstilldarkinBC):
Good Morning, Gold should make a slight come back off yesterday's low how low can low get!! I'd like to say I'm eating not breakfast material right at the moment,and I think I fell in love with the waitress lastnight. She has GOLDEN HAIR

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 06:32
nomercy RJ>(RJ):
...I'm reasonable knowledgeable in goldstocks...but haven't ventured in commodities ( probably, that's why I'm still alive, few bruises though ) ...could you for my benefit and perhaps someother lurker ( s ) ( prospective clients ) take us through, an example of how a small gold shortsale at these levels ( 319.00 ) , throught leasing ( monthly implied rate of 2.60% ) and give us the risk/reward summations, and period of time...given that you're still reccommending your clients to continue the trend...

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 06:21
Mike Sheller @TED>(@TED):
TED: I THOUGHT I smelled Tabouli and Curried Bean Curd! Welcome back.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 06:15
nomercy donald>(donald):
...good morning...if it is morning wherever you are...great stuff...keep it coming...

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 06:15
Leaner prettylongwinded>(prettylongwinded):
Donald please condense the data abit more please!! Good info though, are they takin pot shots at each other over the 2.5 miles demil zone.Do they like Libby's Deep-Browned Beans cause I'm eating a can now, cold and their delicous, maybe we should send them a case or two? Very high in Fibre!!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 06:01
Donald @Home>(@Home):
EDITORIAL, THAILAND BUSINESS DAY ( Now they tell us! ) Living on
From Past

Business Day
Welcomes your opinions or

Borrowing over $80 billion from
abroad over the past decade
meant living precariously with
other people's money and on
borrowed time. Time has run out,
and the whole country has been
hit, not only by enormous financial
losses, but also by the shame and
disgrace of being a debtor
desperately in need of more loans
from foreigners and begging for
ass sistance.

To placate foreign lenders and
investors, the country's goods,
businesses and other resources
have had to be put up for sale at
discounted prices by means of the
floating baht which has done
anything but float. It has sunk.
One thing is clear: the de facto
devaluation of the baht was not a
planned and deliberate choice; it
was forced upon the country by
foreign lenders and investors who
understandably wanted their
money back in a hurry and wisely
refused to continue to bankroll
the orgy of materialistic excess for
which the economic ruling elite of
Bangkok is justly notorious. .

Relatively few of the people who
have brought the economy to its
knees will be held a accountable -
they are still very much in the tight
circle of movers and shakers who
are making sure that official
bailout measures put public
money in their pockets fi irst.

The only way for the our
economy to regain dignity is to
face up to realities and learn from
past mistakes. The obvious
lessons, domestic savings and
investment spending, must go
hand-in-hand, without excessive
reliance on foreign capital.
Long-range development is better
than short-term profiteering and
deferred consumption is
absolutely crucial to long-term
sustainable economic growth and

As obvious as the lessons of the
past decade may be, putting them
into practice does not come
naturally to some of our business
leaders. Greed dies hard.

Official agencies also have
lessons to learn. The Bank of
Thailand must stop seeing itself as
the grand savior and equity holder
of mismanaged businesses. There
is no heroism in doing this. The
country will never produce
world-class competitive
businesses if the central bank
keeps acting like a parent raising
utterly spoiled children. Badly-run
businesses must be allowed to fail
to make room be well-run
enterprises. Equity holders must
learn some hare lessons.
Government leaders should set
the tone for the principles under
which our business and economic
system operates. The role of the
government should be to ensure a
fair and level playing field, and
businesses with a proven track
record should receive full support
and encouragement. .

As for foreign loans, there is
nothing wrong with them as long
as the proceeds are put to
productive use. Here, too, the
lessons of the past are plain to
see, and if past mistakes are
repeated in the future, then the
shame and ridicule the nation is
facing today will undoubtedly
come back to haunt us.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 05:45
Donald @Home>(@Home):
This from Korea: 07-17-97 : Government Officials Strive to Prop Up Credit Standing of Korean
Firms Abroad; Following Insolvency Report of Kia

By Yoo Cheong-mo Staff reporter

With the overseas credit standing of Korean enterprises and banks declining in the wake of
the insolvency of the Kia Group Tuesday, government officials are briskly moving to stem
adverse ripple effects. The Ministry of Finance and Economy ( MOFE ) said yesterday that the
government will be ready to mobilize the central bank's foreign-currency reserves to help ease
the capital crunch at domestic financial institutions. ``Adverse publicity stemming from the Kia
crisis will likely drive foreign lenders to raise rates for Korean banks and enterprises, in the
name of the 'Korean premium,''' said MOFE spokesman Chung Eui-dong.

``The ministry will ensure that sufficient liquidity will be extended to Kia's creditors in order to
keep their overseas credit standing afloat.''In addition, said the spokesman, the ministry will
strengthen its efforts to monitor the Korean premium in international financial markets, and
launch a publicity campaign to stress that the andi-bankruptcy pact applied to Kia is aimed at
normalizing the management of the auto giant. The Bank of Korea ( BOK ) has already
released $1.12 billion Tuesday into the market in the form of repurchase agreements ( RP ) in
order to ease liquidity problems. According to industry sources, adverse side effects resulting
from the Kia insolvency are already visible in overseas capital centers.

Overseas lending rates applicable to Korean enterprises and financial firms are rapidly rising,
while the won-dollar exchange rate has again entered an upward cqrve, rising from 890 won
to the dollar in early trading Tuesday to 892.40 won yesterday. Furthermore, the return rate
on floating rate notes ( FRNs ) and other overseas bonds issued by Korean companies rose by
0.02 to 0.1 percentage points immediately following reports of Kia's insolvency. The prices of
Kia-issued overseas convertible bonds ( CBs ) crashed to 55-percent the level of the issuance
prices from the previous 93 percent in the New York stock market. Noting that Kia-issued
overseas bonds are worth over $210 million, analysts said that a possible simultaneous
stampede by foreign creditors demanding early redemptions may further worsen Kia's
financial difficulties.

``Considering Kia's position as Korea's eighth-largest conglomerate in terms of assets and the
world's 16th-biggest automaker, the shocks stemming from the auto giant's collapse can not
be compared to the previous conglomerate bankruptcies, such as Hanbo, Sammi and Jinro,''
said an anahyst at Daewoo Securhties. A considerable rise i; the Korean premium will be
inefita`le, the analyst said, adding that his office has been inundated with inquiries from foreign
financial officials.

But a Seoul bank executive voiced a slightly optimistic view, and said, ``Kia's financial
difficulties were known among foreign investors during the past several weeks. Thus, the
impact of Kia's insolvency on the Korean premium may not be that enormous.'' Analysts
forecast that the Kia crisis will also create extensive adv`rse effects on the local capital

A depressed mood continued to dominate the Seoul stock market yesterday, as the
composite stock market index, which dropped 9.4 points to 755.05 Tuesday on the news of
Kia's insolvency, dipped to the 740 level as of yesterday afternoon. ``A blacklist containing
names of heavily debt-ridden conglomerates vulnerable to the anti-bankruptcy pact is already
circulating. A crash in the rumored enterprises' share prices may send the overall stock
market int/ a protracted slump,'' said an economist. Noting that the trading of corporate
bonds has been virtually suspended, he said, ``From now on, most local conglomerates (
except such super chaebols as Samsung, Hyundai and LG, will have far more difficulty raising
operational funds.''

In a separate move to stave off a chain reaction of bankruptcies, meanwhile, MOFE said that
the government will offer emergency payment guarantees, worth 500 billion won, to Kia's
5,000-odd parts suppliers and subcontractors. Th Ofbice of Natinnal Tax Administration also
promise` to offer various tax favors, including an extension of the tax-payment deadline, to
Kia's suppliers. The ministry has also urged local merchant banks to refrain from rushing to
retrieve their existing loans from the other chaebols mired in similar financial difficulties.
Analysts said that the Kia crisis will provide an additional momentum to MOFE's drive to
crack down on the excessive debts of large conglomerates.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 05:40
Donald @Home>(@Home):
This from Korea: 07-17-97 : South, North Korean Soldiers Exchange Fire in Demilitarized Zone

By Lee Sung-yul Staff reporter

South and North Korean soldiers exchanged light artillery and rifle fire yesterday in the
Demilitarized Zone after a group of armed North Korean soldiers violated the border.

No South Korean casualties were reported, but a hardened bunker in the DMZ was partially
damaged in a 23-minute exchange of fire, the Joint Chiefs of Staff ( JCS ) said. It was the first
time in years that North Koreans fired even mortar and anti-tank shells against South Korean
soldiers at the DMZ, though they often fire rifle shots, a JCS spokesman said.

``It's apparently an intentional provocation by the North, and we will protest it through the
Military Armistice Commission,'' the spokesman said. After the incident, the JCS ordered
Army units along the heavily fortified buffer zone to step up defense postures against another
North Korean provocation. The fire fight broke out after seven North Korean army soldiers
crossed the Military Demarcation Line ( MDL ) , the center line of the four-kilometer-wide
buffer zone, in the mountainous Chorwon, Kangwon Province area at 10:57 a.m.

South Korean Army guards warned them to return to the northern side through loudspeakers
several times. ``You are crossing the MDL in violation of the Armistice Agreement, and you
must take responsibility for the results of your violation. Return immediately,'' repeatedly
warned South Korean soldiers. But as the North Korean soldiers ignored the warning and
intruded some 70 meters south of the MDL, South Korean soldiers fired about 200 warning
shots in the air with K-2 rifles at 11:02 a,m., the JCS spokesman said.

One minute later, North Koreans in two DMZ guard posts, some 1.3 km to 2.5 km away,
fired about 80 aimed rifle and machine gun shots at two South Korean guard posts, said the
spokesman. South Korean guards responded by opening machine gun fire, and then the
North Koreans fired two 82-mm anti-tank recoilless cannon shells and a score of mortar
shells at the southern side. The shells hit close to two South Korean guard posts in the
southern side of the DMZ.

In response, South Korean soldiers fired scores of rifle shots, and a 57-mm recoilless gun
was fired at 11:25 a.m. Some 20 minutes later, South Korean soldiers suggested a cease-fire
through the loudspeaker, and the seven North Korean intruders returned to the northern side
at 12:02 p.m., the spokesman said. An ambulance was seen entering a North Korean guard
post at 12:20 p.m., but casualties among the northern soldiers were not confirmed, he said.

There have been countless incidents along the border area since the 1950-53 Korean War.
The incident was the first since North and South Korean patrol boats exchanged fire when a
North Korean boat crossed the sea border in the West Sea June 5. No casualties or damage
was reported at that time. On April 10, six North Korean soldiers violated the MDL in
Chorwon, and ignoring South Korean guards' warning, opened fire and returned after more
than two hours.

In March 1992, North Korean soldiers fired 40 aimed machine gun shots at South Korean
guards in the buffer zone. The border incident took place while South Korea is shipping food
aid to the Stalinist North, where people are starving for lack of food. With its economy in
shambles, North Korea has a 1.1 million-strong army. Defectors from the North say
Pyongyang has finished preparations to invade the South.

Officials from the two Koreas, the United States and China are to meet in New York Aug. 5
for preparatory peace talks.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 05:35
Donald @Home>(@Home):
This from Korea: 07-17-97 : Banks Feared to Face Liquidity Problem

The Korean banking community is feared to face serious liquidity problems because of a
surge in nonperforming debts. That possibility has been further heightened by creditor banks'
decision Tuesday to protect the financially troubled Kia Business Group under an
anti-bankruptcy pact.

Korean banks have seen their bad debts snowballing rather than declining since last April,
when domestic banks struck an anti-bankruptcy agreement _ a desperate effort to prevent
chain insolvencies of corporations following the collapse of Hanbo and Sammi. As the
protective measure temporarily suspends all debt payments, creditor banks will need to
restructure all liabilities and provide additional credit under an overall restructuring scheme.

The pact also calls for banks to hold off collecting loans for two months and allows
companies designated as beneficiaries to continue transactions with the banks. Kia Business
Group was the third beneficiary of the protective pact after the brewery giant Jinro Business
Group and a textile and department store group Dainong. The total amount of suspended
debt repayments or loans and payment guarantees for the Jinro, Dainong and Kia groups,
which are affected by the pact, reached about 7.19 trillion won.

It broke down to 1.22 trillion won for Jinro, 602.7 billion won for Dainong and 5.38 trillion
won for Kia. The figure is tantamount to three times that of Korean banks' combined bad
debts as of the end of 1996, which totaled 2.4 trillion won, according to the bank watchdog
Office of Bank Supervision.

To designate business concerns as beneficiaries of the anti-bankruptcy pact is a huge burden
for domestic commercial banks as they are forced to forego principal and interest payments.
Financial experts predict that following the three designations, domestic banks are feared to
suffer an annual loss of 800 billion won in interest income. Besides the interest-income losses,
banks also have to provide additional emergency funds to those financially troubled

The government-run Korea Development Bank topped the list of banks which had granted
loans and payment guarantees to the three troubled business concerns with 1.38 trillion won.
Korea First Bank came next with 947.9 billion won, followed by Cho Hung Bank with 651.1
billion won, Shinhan Bank with 525.4 billion won and Seoul Bank with 477.2 billion won.
Credit extended by the Commercial Bank of Korea amounts to 401.2 billion won.

Other credit providers are Hanil Bank ( 282 billion won ) , Korea Long Term Credit Bank
( 192.2 billion won ) and Korea Exchange Bank ( 169.6 billion won ) . ( KSJ )

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 04:52
Donald @Home>(@Home):
News from Japan appears to have been released after markets closed.
Thai defaults dampen bond trust funds of
Sumitomo Bank subsidiary
Defaults in Thailand are set to push the unit prices of two bond trust
funds managed by Sumitomo Bank's investment trust arm below the
initial purchase price of 10,000 yen when the accounts are settled for the
three months ending July, The Nihon Keizai Shimbun learned

Between 1% and 2% of the total working assets managed by SBIM
Investment Trust Management Co. are invested in bonds issued by
troubled Finance One Plc, one of Thailand's largest financing firms.

Finance One was ordered by the Thai government to suspend
operations for one month in late June due to failures in property
investments and corporate acquisitions.

The present unit price of the S.B. Three A fund which will settle
accounts for the present term on Thursday stands at about 9,985 yen.
The price for the S.B. Superquarter A fund, due for account settlement
on July 24, is calculated at 9,870 yen.

SBIM Investment Trust started management of the two funds in 1994
with combined assets of 60 billion yen, mainly selling to corporate and
individual investors.

Both open end-type funds are categorized as among the safest by the
company's risk assessment grades.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 02:56
Omega Man @ EB's house...>(@ EB's house...):
Everybody come back! We'll order a pizza! EB will tell scary the Betties? poker?...go to bed?


Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 02:48
EB Gerry=Jerry>(Gerry=Jerry):
whoops. My dads name is mixed up.


Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 02:39
EB Rick there?>(Rick there?):
Isn't someone SUPPOSED to be delivering some product about now Tomorrow May be the RECKONING! the MOON?


RECKONING...what a fine CD by Gerry and the Boys. there has to be some fat-man fans out there

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 02:32
EB thanks...>(thanks...):
to all who supplied info regarding physical buying. Yes, I have heard much of the same advice/info regarding tax and purity factors. I own a decent size roll of Eagles but I want/NEED the pure to hold in my hands. And my dad is also inquiring nowadays.

That being said, I will fly to Vienna and stop buy the concert hall to take in some is that for shipping and handling? the belly of a 747!


now, if that numismatic guy will stop calling...

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 01:37
TREND... I agree with you about trends, but I imagine that most traders may already know that the trend is our friend. The question I have is how many days does it take for you to determine that a trend change has been made ( how many days to define a new trend - how long will you wait after an apparent bottom? ) .

For some previous posts, comparing today with 1980 indicates a very long downtrend from 800 to 320, which means one should not have touched the gold market for the last 17 years. However, inside that time span gold went from 286 to 501, from 339 to 438, from 339 to 475, from 326 to 407, and 9 other moves of over $40, which lasted an average of 2 1/2 months each. An advance of over $40 can increase a gold fund's nav by 20-30%. Of course for each of these advances, gold also dropped. How far down must gold go before an uptrend becomes a downtrend?

For some, and perhaps your opinion, is that the current trend is down from Feb 96 when gold hit 416. During that downtrend, there have been several rallies which returned over 10% in gold funds, each time, including this recent Feb, where gold moved $23 in 12 days. I certainly agree with you that when the trend turned down, it was time to sell. I also admit that many rallies were short and caused losses from whipsaws.

The problem I have found is that long term trends change direction almost identical to short term whipsaws, and to wait too long for a confirmed trend change can usually miss most of the move, except for the truly long moves ( every 2-3 years ) . If one is not careful, a premature exit due to a misread downtrend can miss out on a long uptrend.

Picking the bottom is tough because you don't know it was the bottom until the next day when the market is up, which makes it a factor of luck. However, it doesn't take luck to recognize that current market statistics and international fundamentals, combined with massive short positions place us in similar conditions to historic lows before long term uptrends, such as January 1993.

For gold fund info:

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 01:35
Roebear @Dreaming>(@Dreaming):
Eldorado How about posting EBN up 50.02?
NTI: Goldnight!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 01:32
Roebear @HersheyLibrary>(@HersheyLibrary):
cherokee An Earl he is not ( who could be? ) , but from a literary view RJ's 00:22 was a good piece of work. Especially,,,,oh oh, metal forum, not JollyRoger, Gold Bart Gold! And to all a Goldnight!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 01:32
Someone requested a chart of gold/bond. This one is not very elegant but is the ratio of gold to the US bond. Both derived from the the monthly continuing futures contract.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 01:23
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Guess they heard me. Now up 'only' 1.10.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 01:17
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
EBN shows gold up 1.12. Wonder where they get the .12? Why not .10? Isn't that .02 difference more or less equivalent to pulling flees off a dog?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 01:05
Roebear - Yes I am long silver and very, very short gold. Will hold off silver buys and put on new gold shorts. Silver will recover faster that gold.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 01:03
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- I hate even numbers! In either direction! I.E., if we see 300 gold and/or 4.00 silver, we ARE going lower! It might bounce first, but they'll go lower. TOO much 'expectation' at those precise numbers IMHO. Personally, I kind of like reversals just above those numbers. Else, we'll go down to just above some other 'even' number to do it. Comment ( s ) are most welcome!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 01:01
Roebear @HersheyCrystalPalace>(@HersheyCrystalPalace):
RJ If I remember your past postings, are you not short gold and long silver? That is an unusual combo? Help me out here I'm green on the fancy stuff. Is it some sort of hedge or just your read on the market ( or both ) . I feel the pain on the silver, but hey, it's great to be silver : ( (

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 00:51
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- More like the final half hour. Not that the previous rest of the day did much to 'glamorize' it! I will say that this 4.18 price can lend a bit of a floor to it. But only if it will. Otherwise, another dime down, or so, is in its' more immediate future. That, if seen, should make a good temporary buy, at least.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 00:51
cherokee @where's-the-mouth-monitor>(@where's-the-mouth-monitor):

eloquence berefit of elegance. what a waste.
tom petty was tu?

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 00:49
Roebear - Silver got whacked. There will be a test soon of two hallowed benchmarks, 300 and 4.00. Wouldn’t it be poetic if we got both the same day? A close at those marks would confirm, we are all through the looking glass.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 00:44
RJ !!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!):
Roebear - Stayed out of the hooch, but got the skirt hiked up high. The world is an interesting place.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 00:41
RJ Waste not.....>(Waste not.....):
Cherokee - Regarding telltale signs of a rat, a coping method: When first you notice a rat turd, look no further, for indeed, it was left by a rat, and will certainly smell the same. This is a great time saver and denies the rat what he wishes most, to proudly display his turd in hope that others will call it gold.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 00:32
Roebear @HersheyManO'War>(@HersheyManO'War):
RJ Superb, excellent! To think I was just going to ask you what happened to silver. I will never peek under your skirts again my friend. BTW, what the @#$%$% did happen to silver!

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 00:25
cherokee @he's-back>(@he's-back):

as far as i'm concerned the bottom has been in for the last
two weeks. currently buying the physical commodity. no more
futures on gold or silver until they definitively break-out.
the price is so low that, imo, they are a buy, as long as
there is no speculator on the other side. with the physical
element in hand, i can withstand, all attempts to wrest it
from me. every day they continue their downward spiral, the
opportunity increases. options are the only vehicle for me,
on these manipulated metals. they grow cheaper by the day.
one day, they will pay with their hides, for driving
such a noble represenative to a premature grave. when
the earth is a smoldering cinder, then, and only then,
will gold have no value. until then, i will continue
to accumulate and appreciate its' value as a secure
store of exchange ( imm ) . the only difference will be how
much it cost to accumulate. at these prices, i'm
ecstatic. someone posted the prices for gold options
way in the future ( tort? ) . these are incredibly cheap,
relative to the time they encompass! i shorted aug beans
today and caught some of the limit move down. this contract
has a long way to go ( down ) if the weather holds for a week or two.
only the current contract has higher prices. kap-n-kev
can probably shed some light on beans, as he hit the nail ( bean )
on the head last year.

we have been invaded by a pack-rat claiming ancestry from a
kitty-cat. after alienating almost everyone, he cannot understand
why he is being ostracized. he has been given a psuedo-nym
appropriate for his stature. please welcome---hep-rat-cat
to the fold! he begs for attention with gnashing, yellow
fangs. yet, when given what he deserves, he cannot understand
enmity! maybe your style of prose will enable him to better
understand the ability of honey to draw the bear.

cherokee!; ) biter-of-the-bit-------------------

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 00:23
Roebear @HersheyPirrateer>(@HersheyPirrateer):
TREND: Aye, you be right in your way. But we goldbugs be contrary buggers, many of us right now in Davy Jones Locker still clutchin their pieces of eight from ages ago. We be so contrary, some times we be right when everyone else is wrong. And don't be tellin' me about stopped clocks, we had no stopped clocks on the Spanish Main and we still got the gold, though at times we went down with it.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 00:22
RJ Stuff>(Stuff):
Grim hours in the silver pits as the final half led to woebegone cries of how, who, why, and where is the bottom, wasn’t it right there below me? No more there as traders end this confused day with ankles up and bellies down. Hopeful questions of how high soon twist and contort to how far is down, and who will survive the slide. Brothers in arms, now foes to the foil, wish they had taken any other course but the one that found them today benighted, blighted, and scorned by capricious fates and elusive charity. Oh, how to you, as also I, here and now count our sorrows and worries shall be spent before their full worth due. And now, my brother kind, remember my face, as tomorrow, the fist high shouting raised beckons to ransom today perchance to stave tomorrow’s reckoning.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 00:07
After lurking for about 2 years in this discussion group, I am
very surprised and shock to see so many of you who are very
educated and knowledgable in the market lose money. The way
you guys are trading is to pick top or bottoms. There will always
be someone would say Gold is bottoming because of key reversal
or due to heavy selling. Or the Dow is very high now. It will
go into correction.
You guys are all missing one thing. TREND !!! Do you know what
is the meaning of trading with the TREND. What is the TREND in
Gold market now It is down !!! What do you do Sell short
only in any retracement!! Never go long !! How about the DOW
or SP500 ? What is the TREND ? It is up. What do you do
Buy long only in any retracement !! Never sell short.

Learn this lesson !! Otherwise you guys will always be broke
and poor. Nobody can predict the top and bottom.

Date: Thu Jul 17 1997 00:07
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
The problem with Gates is that when the market crashes so does Gates. for him to get his hands on that much money he would have to sell his shares and wouldn't that be interesting!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 23:56
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
JoJo: Interesting take on the green-eyed monster eyeing boomer retirement money. I've often thought the same thing, but dismissed it because the oldest boomers are just now turning 50 and have another 10 working years in front of them. Hard to keep the game going that long, I reckon; and that's what'll be needed to optimize profits. But IF the Greenie-eyed monster *can* keep the ball in play another decade or so before he strikes, he'll break the backs not only of all the boomer faithful, but also of all the suspicious boomers out there -- like thisee here old goldbug.

Miro: Thx for the correction. Unbelievable wealth. I heard that Gates alone now has 1/256ths of all the wealth in the country. Soon, he may surpass the all-time record: Rockerfeller's 1/65ths.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 23:45
JOHN ( @home ) : This is it. I quit.....
John, you are not alone, I have had some 30k down days.
But the Market action at present is ABSURD. Look at today's
record NASDAQ gain, but realize the number of advancing
issues were 2387 vs 2011 Down. What this shows is that the
Market specialists are running up, just a few issues, to keep
the game in play. But we are near the end, simply because
there is no way to sustain these gains. When the money comes
out of these inflated issues, a lot of it will go to the
precious metals sector. Hang in there, because there is one
thing worse than selling at a loss and thats selling at the BOTTOM.
Best regards Schippi

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 23:38
keva @westcoast>(@westcoast):
let us stop and consider why us goldbugs have been so wrong on precious metals and the market.

1. goldbugs are Logical thinking folks
2. this is no longer a logical world ( if it ever was )
a. gold , a solid substance, difficult to mine and long treasured
by all is losing value.
b. paper, a less solid substance, easy to make and fabricate is
gaining value by the day.
c. tobacco, a substance smoked for hundreds of years ( a personal
choice ) is villified by the government, but the very same
government is subsidizing farmers to grow the stuff
d. young people, heady with energy, whipped up to frenzies with noise
called music, high on dope, sated with material things, resort to
putting holes in their bodies ( 3-5 in ears, in tongues, through
belly-buttons and other parts of the body ) harking back to the
days when savages did the same
e Times-Warner reports a remarkable improvment of earnings from a
loss of 28c to a loss of 9c. the stock goes up 4 points
f dna evidence is a one way street. it can be used to free the
innocent? but is not good enough to convict the quilty

the list is endless but the above should be enough to put the point across

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 23:25
Smithy BadNewsBears>(BadNewsBears):
Dan Ascani ( former associate of Robert Prechter, the man who put Elliott Wave on the map ) writes an excellent Elliott market letter and has been consistently calling for $300 gold followed by a test of $280, ditto $4 for silver to test $3.50. He's also calling for 9600 Dow and top Aug. - Sept. His view is that we're headed for serious deflation.

On another subject, the charts shown here in recent days have been terrific. Can anyone post a long term bond/gold ratio chart? Arguments here have prevailed on the gold price/interest rate correlation and it would be good to see it in the flesh.

Wonderful site - thoroughly enjoy the stimulating debate not to mention the jokes. . .


Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 23:22
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Technical Bounce or time to Scale UP

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 23:18
TED @cherokee>(@cherokee):
Cherokee: Thanks for the welcome back and I'll try and be of some comfort to Tort....even if he is a lawyer!...What's your take on Gold Are we near the bottom or is the pain going to continue indefinetly?...Good to hear from you BRO!...EBN Gold up .40 and Silver down 2 cents and I'm exhausted from the endless road-trip,so goodnight all!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 23:11
Vieserre The Need to Devalue>(The Need to Devalue):
Seems like even Germany wants to join the Contagion

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 23:10
Big Time Tom Buying high and selling low>(Buying high and selling low):
John ( @home ) wrote: This is it. I quit. I'm taking my loses as soon as the bullion dealer opens in the morning. . . . It's all over now but the crying.

Well, as they say, John, the average person buys high and sells low. But I don't get it. Why on earth would you sell at these historically low prices? So you can buy when the price goes back up?--or perhaps buy blue chip stocks at historically high prices? And if the regular market does decline 20% or 30%, will you then sell your blue chip stocks at their lower prices as well? If you were a trader hoping to time the market, or if you were desperate for cash, that would be one thing. But this does not seem to be your reasoning. So why capitulate now?

Like you, I'll be KRY-ing myself to sleep tonight. It seems to me, however, that this is a time for calm, not panic, and certainly not a time for hysteria over the perceived victory of socialism. So hang in there, my friend. Do what you have to do, but don't do it compulsively. And lest you think I am lecturing you, rest assured that I am lecturing myself much more than I am lecturing you.


Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 23:05
cherokee @welcome-home>(@welcome-home):

welcome back. you are a permanent fixture and
tort NEEDS you!!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 23:02
Lan Man To Geff@Kodak Earnings>(To Geff@Kodak Earnings):
The announcement indicated that the poor results were from the digital products end of the business...

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 22:58
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Jojo -- Gastronomic trading! All too true usually! That's why so many traders are just day traders. They sleep easier! They may miss an overnight or over weekend move but it certainly is easier on the dreams

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 22:52
Bob M>(
I think it is time to begin to accumulate mining shares as I believe that in this stock feeding frenzy, it is becoming increasingly difficult to locate undervalued sectors, thus before this bull is done running, the fund managers and manipulators will squeeze every last dime from the market. Once gold stabilizes after the US unloads some of its bullion, the mining shares will attract attention and also frequent takeovers and acquisitions will occur, and the mining sector will begin to move in earnest. This will also signal the end of the bull in stocks.,.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 22:48
Just finished reading a Reuters story on today's silver action. They said it was because of the tame inflation report. My thought is that the silver slide was influenced to some degree by Kodak's lower than expected earnings...What's bad for big yellow is bad for silver? Just a thought.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 22:47
Bob M>(

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 22:40
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
The August gold is either going to see 335 or 305! Unless something very dramatic happens tonight, I believe that todays action put the writing on the wall; Heading South! In either case, I'll play it. Insurance is one thing but an increase in purchasing power is nice also!

Watch for any upside breakout in the Aug crude also. It didn't do it today but it can tomorrow or Friday. Also, grains are a 'must' watch! Slight resistance encountered. Now watch for support.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 22:38
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Hi Panda and thanks for the welcome you're the one responsible for the 20+ drop in the last 3 Burke ( 22:06 ) thanks for info on pdg but I don't like their CEO Mr.Wilson...I'm thinking of buying tomorrow and have narrowed it down to ABX,HM or NEM....Any comments?

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 22:19
John @home>(@home):
This is it. I quit. I taking my loses as soon as the bullion dealer opens in the morning. It's been fun watching the chats but it's time to face the facts. Big Gov. has won. Paper is worth what they tell us it's worth. We have no other options. I watch as we move more towards one world socialist government. This is our future. Once government provides us with all necessities, gold and silver will be useless and we will be slaves.
It's all over now but the crying.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 22:07
Vieserre home>(home):
GFD: Thanks for the comment. It is a point well considering.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 22:06
Richard Burke (On the Gulf of Georgia)>((On the Gulf of Georgia)):
TED: re majors: PDG announced yesterday that it was reducing costs to around $217 for the next year - getting into better grade of ore.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 22:02

Miro - Weren't you the one who called me a wannabe? Who exactly do
I imitate on this site? Who do I parrot? Who do I pretend to be? Would
you like me to post that gold is going down every day? I will be happy to.
Let's set a default post for 10:15 a.m. every day, Monday through Friday.
Here it is:

Gold is going down, both in the short term, and for the forseeable future,
unless there is a cataclysmic event. You have been warned. If you
choose not to follow my advice ( unsupported save for the chart at the
top of the page ) , then you are foolish and deluded.

Naturally, I have the option of overriding the default message on any
given day, for example, if a stronger warning is necessary. Also,
unlike the true nonthinkers on this site, I will change my message to
gold is going up when the time warrants, i.e. when gold actually is
going to make a sustained move up. Of course, this will hardly be
recognized above the shouts of everyone here who says, See, I
told you gold was going up when that time arrives. Prescient,
or just plain precious? You decide.

Miro, Miro, on the wall
Sprio Agnew down the hall
Nattering Nabobokovs
Sages or 40%offs?
Wannabe? Wannabet? Wantanabe? Guantanamera?

RJ2 - If the devil is in the details, then yes, I am the devil.
Where is your good friend Stephen Mooney?

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 21:59
Alphalog Geld@rent>(Geld@rent):
Donald: your comment regarding 1923 in Germany? You may want to
reconsider your views. The old Reichsmark was backed by GOLD.-
After the inflation in 1923, the new Rentenmark was backed up by
the combined value inherent in the Government owned Railroad System,
including all right of way, tracks, stations, rolling stock,
everything!!. Not GOLD!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 21:58
panda @>(@):
TED -- Welcome back. I, personally, took care of the gold price! :- ) )

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 21:55
Jojo in Tokyo Checking in after an absence - Hello All!>(Checking in after an absence - Hello All!):
Hello all! Just checking in after an absence. Kitco is still alive and well I see.

8000! my goodness. When I said at the beginning of the year to expect much lower gold and much higher stocks I had no idea! Luckily I put some of my own money where my mouth was ( in both cases ) . It was hard to do but it paid off this time. Isn't there an investment saying like:
Never make any investment unless it keeps you awake at night with beads of sweat on your forehead. In other words, if you are comfortable with your investments, it is a bad sign ( often been the case with me anyway ) . Does anyone recall Old Man who last year reported his success with doing immediate reversals when his futures went awry? Similarly, I thought gold was headed up this year, but it did not, so with white knuckles I reversed ( shorted ) . What do all those mutual fund advertisements say? Something like Past performance is no guarantee that luck will be with us in the future.

In Tokyo these days there are tons of rumors of all kinds, but I have not reported them here because I notice most are already being reported here and in the media. ( If I knew some TRUTH I would report it. )

Current status: We ( our little group ) are biting our nails here continuing to bet on higher market and lower gold. For how long? Hmmm....until something changes I guess. I have suggested that additional hedging be used with these positions but then that would violate the basic requirement of good investments, i.e., they must keep you awake at night, beads of sweat, and, oh yeah, the pain in the stomach ( last night my nightstand bottle of antiacid went empty, I ran through the apartment rifling my briefcases looking for more...and I had no fun! ) .

Unless there is some horrific exogenous event we think the US market will continue - why? - our professional opinion is this: it will continue because the market is a ferocious greedy green-eyed monster that does not want to stop until it has ALL the baby-boomers life savings safely tucked away for them! BWAAAAAahahahahahah! ( said the monster in my dream, waking me again! )


Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 21:50
George Cole in Florida>(in Florida):
Bob: Although we disagree on many things you are absolutely on the money about the ability of the big gold miners to blast the shorts. The latter are hugely vulnerable to a well financed counterattack, perhaps more than they have ever been in the past. But I suspect the big boys do not mind gold at these levels for awhile as it will enable them to acquire the small fry on the cheap.

With 500 new highs today, this blowoff in the stock market has a considerable ways to go before the game ends. But time is running out. These big gains will accrue over the next few weeks and then KAPUT.

Seems to me some of the gold bears now are just as emotionally anti-gold as gold bugs used to be on the other side of the equation. Some of you really HATE the yellow.

As far as I am concerned the recent smash in gold shares is just what the doctor ordered. They finally are dirt cheap and will explode with huge gains when during the next gold bull. I do not expect big sustainable upside moves anytime soon, but the long-term potential is enormous. The risk/reward ratio has never been better.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 21:44
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold up .50 and Silver down 1 cent.....

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 21:42
Donald @Home>(@Home):
If I had $44 Billion I would buy an annuity. Seriously, Lots of guys were multi-billionaires in Germany in 1923. As I recall, they were not too happy about it.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 21:37
Miro Ron@Bill Gates>(Ron@Bill Gates):
Ron, sorry to point a small error in your calculation of Bill's net
worth. In addition to today's increase, he gained just about the same
amount ( $3 billions ) in the previous three days. That would make him
worth aprx. $44 billions. Earning $6 billions in less than a week. He
sure could buy with one week earning more gold that what was recently
sold by Oz CB. Well, maybe it was him so he can print Windows in gold
letters on ewery box containing MS software ;- )

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 21:33
Steve, appreciate your reply and clarification. I just wondered about your comment and why you needed to make the distinction. As you may appreciate, anti-semitism is a higly sensitive issue and goes beyond boundaries of political correctness, but you have reassured me on this score. Enjoy your posts, by the way.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 21:18
ron jett>(
DONALD, thank you for taking the time to explain. I do believe as I have that will end badly for those who are dipping into this monster. I am and will remain, a holder of silver, gold. I figure I've been wrong for so long thatsoon I'll have to be right. FYI, I have devoted my Geocities page now to the metals if you care to visit.

thanks again

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 21:18
Ron More on Gates>(More on Gates):
It is conceivable that this fella could become the world's first trillionaire. Incidentally, guys, what would you do with a trillion dollars? I think I'd buy NASA, increase its annual budget by a thousand fold, and start landing men on little rocks in space looking for gold and other goodies. Wait, at these prices, maybe I should do my mining on COMEX. Why get my hands dirty?

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 21:01
Ron Bill Gates>(Bill Gates):
Just saw on the news that Bill Gates's net worth increased today by nearly $3 billion, thanks to a $9/share increase in Microsoft. The man is now worth $41 billion! To help me deal with all those zeros, I figure the interest ON THE INTEREST is about one-half million dollars per day, seven days a week, 365 days a year.

EBN spot up a nickel.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 20:53
Glenn: The traders may not share the opinion I expressed but the low prices for options per unit of time, would seem to indicate that the buyers do. ..... I would also assume that, at these levels, there are not a large number of options being written.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 20:48
Steve Inflation>(Inflation):
Todays action in the gold market confirms two things for me.

1. Inflation is weighing heavily on Gold's inability to make a move higher.

2. When we start to see some form of Inflation it will be enough to send gold up to more respectably levels.

Any comment

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 20:47
EB the wager...>(the wager...):
I am glad nobody took me up on that wager ( my puts vs. your calls ) . With all the recent activity by the shorts it has made the options more volatile hence more expensive. I could not find a good spread EITHER way. I'd rather wait 'til the volatility drops and options start to look better. There just doesn't seem to be enough room for me to profit on the short side... ( if that's not a sign to short the market I don't know what is ) !

Anyway, I'll save the cash. Because now I'm Cuckoo for Cocoa Puts...oh my!



Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 20:45
Steve - Perth>(
EARL: Your excellent 5 day chart shows me that gold is still dropping
with sharp one of upsides, that cannot successfully overpower the overall
downside. The bottom is not here yet. George Cole is on the money. 8500 could be hit very easily now.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 20:36
Glenn AU>(AU):
After hanging out on the floor in the options pit I would NOT assume that just because someone sells a Dec98 $400 call that the traders believes that gold is dead. This is how they make money. Anyway at any given time they are buying and selling - puts and calls and then off-setting the risk with futures contracts. I've writen a couple calls myself and I understand the risk. But I just think that if Gold were to explode to the upside I would make os much money buying futures contracts that it really would not even matter. Also for thous of you who think that Gold will somehow open up $100 higher one day and that will be that you can trust me when I say I check gold quotes in the middle of the night just for that such event with my phone and access numbers never far away. It's a hell of a life but someone's got ot do it!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 20:31
Donald @Home>(@Home):
RON JETT: The Dow/Gold ratio is the number of ounces needed to buy one share of each of the Dow Jones Index. September, 1929, it took 18.43 ounces. January, 1980, it took 1 ounce, today it takes 25.22. In my opinion it measures the extremes of greed and fear. Others disagree. Right now it is telling me that we are in an area of greed in stocks. In 1980 we were in an area of greed in gold.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 20:26
Miro Respecting John @hepcat>(Respecting John @hepcat):
John: I could respect your opinion about the gold, which you
coincidentally post only when the current movement in price of gold
supports it, but the fact that somebody shopped at Saks' never impressed
me. Must be my European upbringing ;- )

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 20:25
capnkev @mmgood>(@mmgood):
Earl......crackin' open a nice frosty ( Coors ) now, as they say at the hunting lodge..........TO THE HUNT!!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 20:19
capnkev @change>(@change):
I consider gold call option buying as a way to spend loose change, kinda like throwin' it out on a crap table ( at this point anyhow ) if it hits GREAT if it dont ohwell woulda spent it on something useless like restoring a couple of more classic cars

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 20:15
ron jett>(
DONALD, can you brief me on this Dow/Gold ratio you speak of.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 20:11
Kap'n Kev: I'm actually more in tune with you than that post would indicate. If not, I wouldn't have had the prices at my fingertips.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 20:07
capnkev @contrarian>(@contrarian):
I hear ya EARL, but you cant win if ya dont PLAY, besides I LIKE buying when nobody does

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 20:01
TED @novice>(@novice):
Novice ( 18:43 ) Maybe I'll use your latest as a contrary indicator and buy some more Gold shares...At their depressed prices the temptation is great, especially since there is cash to spare with the cancellation ( today ) of the real estate purchase...Will e-mail you about the last minute change of plans...

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 19:57
Here is the GC action for the past 5 days. Registered in 5 min bars. Interpretation is left as an academic exercize for those so inclined.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 19:48
Kap'n Kev: Since you just had to go open the topic of options, the Dec98 400 calls are now at $210 and stable. The June 99 400s are at $260. Option writers are now of the opinion that gold has been pronounced dead and all that remains is a decent burial. So far they are correct.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 19:48
nomercy tanami>(tanami):
...this might help

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 19:41
tanami @annualised lease rate?>(@annualised lease rate?):
NOMERCY, I thought the one month lease rate was an annualised
equivalent, that 2.6% or whatever was what it would be if
paid for a year. only a difference of x12, would appreciate
if anyone could clarify this.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 19:38
EB John@hepcat>(John@hepcat):
I remember those kids on the playground.

It reminds me of the kid who ALWAYS got picked last because he didn't play well with others and he just plain sucked at sports? I remember those tykes too.


Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 19:37
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Dollar rally stalls on fears of Japanese trade report

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 19:35
capnkev @crazyyousay>(@crazyyousay):
Well I went &did it picked up a some Oct 340 calls @ 150 a pop

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 19:29
EB doo-doo = Sh*t>(doo-doo = Sh*t):
The kitco editor told me to Grow up and not to post any dirty words for all to read. I apologize for my sophmoric attempts to make joke. That is a clever editor. I guess everyone does not get edited? Oh well...away


Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 19:21
EB @ I'm not your stepping stone...the Monkees>(@ I'm not your stepping stone...the Monkees):
We are more than happy to establish a mechanism through which relevant countries can help others on a reciprocal basis in case of financial crisis.
Mr. Stea Ja-dong...from Steve 12:15 article

i read this comment several times and pondered for quite awhile

What Mr. dong ( if I may call you dong ) calls Reciprocity...I call Graft. You got H.K. and soon you will have Taiwan. And soon after? Doesn't this all seem too well orchestrated Hmmmmmmmmmm...I wonder. And now Japan is jumping on the help ship. We must keep up with the Jones'es. Who will own the stepping stone...



things are continuing to feel weird...and the doo-doo is building for a GOOD fan-hitting

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 19:12
Donald @Home>(@Home):
The Dow/Gold ratio is 25.22 tonight. We have a new 31 year high just 3.25 ounces shy of the 1966 high.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 19:10
Cmax @Oracle's gold standard theory>(@Oracle's gold standard theory):
Oracle: I found your theory ( )
fascinating about the industrialized nations orchestrating a concerted effort to return to a fractional ( 25% of M1 ) gold standard as an explanation for present events. I am no economist, but I believe ANY return to any type of gold standard would require the elimination of deficit ( deceit? ) spending by the goverment. If they were to convert to a 25% gold standard under present spending conditions, the arbitragers ( arbi-traitors? ) would have a field day with the $/gold. A golden chaparone can only be utilized efectively under a balanced budget. I don’t see this as a viable theory until goverments are weened off their high paper fiber ( newly printed $ and credit ) diet, which will not happen
until a total economic collapse ensues. Also, any gold standard theory can not be effectively contemplated without including the expansion of credit along with the basic money supply. Expansion of credit will cause inflation and subsequent arbitrage just as surely as printing $ will.
Your posts are always respected and admired, and your further input on this would be appreciated.
All: Anyone else have any input on this?

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 19:03
nomercy lease rates>(lease rates):
...welcome back Ted...Steven Kaplan reports that one-month implied lease rate is up to 2.60% from 2.35 % yesterday. Annualized, shorts are paying over 32%interest.
It works out at $320.00 spot, to $8.32 before they break-even...the nose is getting shorter...and the funds squeeze the CB's laugh it up...

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 18:59
Bob AG>(
The majority is always wrong? and at this juncture it sure looks like the majority is very pessimistic. Therefore it time to buy?

Just Learning!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 18:43
Novice @And THATS the way it is...>(@And THATS the way it is...):
Ted: Welcome back. Can gold go lower? You bet. Can the Dow go higher? Affirmative. IMHO, jumping into the gold market is STILL like walking blindfolded off the end of a gangplank into the middle of the Atlantic Ocean in a hurricane. Lets face it...most of us are here because we are goldnuts. We believe or have believed the ( well-intentioned ) stuff that appears here. In the process most of us are missing the greatest bull market ever in the Dow and elsewhere. Gold will have its day I suppose ( they say every dog does ) , but I don't expect a run anytime soon. If I'm wrong tomorrow and the mighty gold rush starts, I'll be as happy as anyone here, but I don't believe its going to happen. Nor next week, nor next month either.

How's that for pessimism?

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 18:25
the wizard @ Oz>(@ Oz):
fire! fire! fire! ( -in a crowded theatre? )
feed the kundalini;
or the kundalini will feed on you

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 18:21
Jack Fire Department IMF>(Fire Department IMF):

Regarding the devaluations; world governments and their fire department, the IMF are ACTUALLY creating investor confidence, by supposedly putting out these fires. If the currencies had gold backing, there would be less fire alarms.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 18:21
WDL @takeover Down Under?>(@takeover Down Under?):
This story would be of particular interest to Steve in Perth and others:

Great Central Says No Takeover Received from Barrick

SYDNEY ( Dow Jones ) --Australia's Great Central Mines Ltd. ( GTCMY )
Wednesday responded to speculation about a takeover bid for the gold miner from Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ) by telling the Australian Stock Exchange it has not received nor is it aware of a takeover bid from Barrick.

But around 0200 GMT ( 10 p.m. EDT ) , shares in Great Central continue to outstrip the broader gold sector, climbing 23 cents, or nearly 9.4%, to A$2.69.

The gold shares subindex is up 1.2%

Great Central Tuesday jumped 10 cents to A$2.46, while the gold sector dropped 1.0%, causing many brokers to cite the Barrick rumor as the reason for the stock's performance.

Joseph Gutnick, who owns about 20% of Great Central, said in an interview he told the exchange there is no bid yet from Barrick.

If there is a bid it would be in the market, if there isn't there isn't, he said.

Gutnick declined to comment whether Barrick executives have been Australia to discuss a bid for Great Central.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 18:14
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NEWS FROM MANILA: Peso holds at P29 to $1

Defying speculations, the peso performed better than
expected yesterday as it held at P29 to $1 on the first day
of trading after the government allowed it to float last

Full General Stories

BSP to avail of $1-B IMF facility

The Philippine Central Bank or Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas ( BSP ) will draw on some $1.1 billion in funds
from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) to boost the
country's gross international reserves ( GIR ) which
dropped to $9.7 billion after heavy intervention in the
foreign exchange market.

Full Business Stories

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 18:04
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka said
Japan will co-ordinate with the
International Monetary Fund
( IMF ) , if necessary, to help bring
stability to Asian currencies,
including the baht, that have
recently tumbled against the

Japan will keep a close watch on
Asian currencies and keep close
contact with the related nations,
Mitsuzuka said.

He didn't say whether the
Ministry of Finance had a specific
plan to co-ordinate with the IMF
to deal with recent sharp declines
in Asian currencies such as the
baht, Indonesian rupiah and
Philippine peso.

The IMF is now observing the
situation quietly, Mitsuzuka said
at a regular press c conference.

Speculation about Asian
currencies has been reported, but
it doesn't reflect reality y.

Referring to Thailand, he said: I
am aware of the reports that
Thailand will seek financial
support from the IMF, and we
will handle the situation in
co-operation with the IMF, if
needed, as we will talk about the
situation with the IMF.

Mitsuzuka said he expected the
baht to stabilize soon against the
dollar and welcomed Thailand's
decision to move to a managed
float on July 2.

We are analyzing trading, in
expectation that trading in the
baht will settle down eventually
following Thailand's move, he

Meanwhile, Japan's newly
appointed Vice-Finance Minister
Takeshi Komura also said that his
ministry would carefully monitor
foreign exchange markets in Asia.

Komura, attending his first press
conference since replacing
Tadashi Ogawa as the top
ministry bureaucrat, said that
Japan will then come up with an
appropriate response to the
present currency situation in the
region. - Bloomberg

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 18:01
Bob a strong wind even turkeys can fly...but>( a strong wind even turkeys can fly...but):
NotaGoldbug...when that high wind changes direction even an innocent bystander can get pissed on.


Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 17:57
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NEWS FROM BRAZIL: Brazilian stock markets fall but Real remains stable

BRASÍLIA, 07/16/97 - Although the speculative attacks on Asian currency helped cause an 8.5%
drop on the São Paulo stock exchange and a 7.7% decline in Rio de Janeiro, Finance Minister
Pedro Malan maintained his schedule of visits to financial leaders the United States. He will lunch
today with the vice director of the International Monetary Fund, Stanley Fisher. However, Argentine
Finance Minister, Roque Fernandez, said Malan had expressed concern when he visited Buenos
Aires Sunday. When he was in Europe he was always being questioned on the potential impact of
the Asian crisis, Fernandez said. Malan assured him, however, that there will be no abrupt changes
in the exchange rate. ( SB )

Electrical appliance industry records a 12.2% drop in sales

SÃO PAULO, 07/16/97 - Manufacturers of electrical and electronic products recorded a 12.2%
drop in sales in June, compared to the same period in 1996. When compared to May, the decline
was 10.3%. This is the second month in a row that sales of electrical and electronic products have
declined, said the National Association of Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers ( Eletros ) . The
sales drop surprised the sector, said Roberto Macedo, president of Eletros. The manufacturers
expected a drop in sales but did not expect the decline to be so drastic, he said. ( SB )

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 17:53
Bob @...only three months ago>(@...only three months ago):
Q was skimming 1100 and now jumps daily to new highs. Have we missed a secular change in IT stocks or is this a replay of former May-summer runs for the tech stks ? What impact is IT having on the big board stks ?

Forbes top 500 companies, USA vs x-USA, indicate that, in the aggregate, US top 500 are making materially greater bottom line profits from less sales than the x-USA top 500.

The role of American IT and the impact of US domination of the world's software marketshare are showing through the statistics.
If you too could manufacture software and sell it on $3 CDs for a significant multiple of its full cost ( R+D, etc. ) in tremendous volumes you can also challenge the wealthiest man in the world.

The Internet wave makes it cheaper still to distribute SW and indeed transact sales of hardware systems and hard products in general. This is an American phenomena that is slowly catching on in Japan and Europe.

The SE Asian tigers are pawns that provide the sweat shops for commodity chip fabs and assemblies that end-up in US ( and other first world ) branded systems.

Where is inflation you ask ? It's exported to China, SE Asian tigers and lesser developed countries of the former ( FSU ) soviet union. Who tracks inflation in China ? Who cares ?

If it were not for the gold buying of the Asian community we ( long gold investors ) would be really suffering ( and you think its bad already ! ) .

The way to turn-around this Mama Bear in gold is to shake-out the short specs and squeeze the blood suckers for all the profits they stole from gold investors over the past 3 quarters.

Peter Munk and a few Big Gold Miners need only counter-attack to launch gold back to a higher trading range. They do it by buying physical spot gold - preferably from weak CBs - and play chicken with the short specs. In the absence of major CB dump announcements the yellow metal price should follow a more commodity base price model that eliminates the macabre death watch that allows spec gold shorts to profit at the expense of gold industry investors.

Dose anyone doubt that the Gold Cartel could easily reverse the speculative purge of the gold price by spec shorts who profitably played off the dupe - Govenor Daffy Duck of the RBA - at the expense of long-term gold investors ? Does anyone doubt me ? Do you not believe that the trading range of $340 was adequately tested and held even with CB dumps until insider trading sniffed the RBA gold dump
and milked it for all its expected news worthiness ?

When will the Golden Big Boys defend their shareholders vested long-term interests ? That day will be the day that gold price rallies hard and fast back to its pre-RBA trading range - 20 bucks is 20 bucks !


Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 17:44
INVESTOR was it a goldbug>(was it a goldbug):

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 17:38
To George S. Cole..

Your optimism always amazes me.. An impressive day for gold is if it
doesn't go down, much. Love your comments but I think you may be
pissing in the wind....

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 17:36
nomercy inflation>(inflation):
..something interesting by the Woodrow Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis...What is a dollar worth? This site has a calculator which measures the CPI of a value in current year to the value of that same basket of goods in an earlier year. It measures the average level of prices of the goods and services typically consumed by an urban American family.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 17:31
George Cole market action>(market action):
Despite the afternoon retreat, gold didn't do too badly today considering surge in dollar and stocks.

Stock market looks to be on course for my target of Dow 8500 in August. Russell 2000, now at 410, could easily jump to 450 over next few weeks.

Where will we be in October? Below 7500 certainly and under 7000 probably.

Gold should begin its bull next month, but it will be a slow beginning. Powerful short-covering rallies nothwithtstanding, the yellow's fundamental upward progress will be quite modest for the balance of 1997. But we should see real fireworks in 1998 as gold takes out $400 decisively.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 17:13
TED Roebear>(Roebear):
Roebear: Thanks fer the welcome back!...and how bout dem Hershey Bears...
Time for din din...

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 17:12
Leaner thedevilmademesayit>(thedevilmademesayit):
Johnny are you the devil

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 17:07
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Ted and Tort: Welcome back Ted, hang on, kitco has been down since about 12:15 or so EDT. I have been trying to get back in and just did so. Looks like gold is getting sold down again, that big player in New York?

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 16:57
TED @dow8000>(@dow8000):
I'll echo what Tort just said....WHERE THE HELL IS EVERYONE?...Was there a mass suicide in my absence?...or is everybody hanging low,licking their wounds....can Gold go much lower?...can the DOW go much higher?...I'm impatiently waiting for discussion on the Gold majors!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 16:45
TED @Tort>(@Tort):
Tort: We double posted.....didn't take long to get back on the same wavelength...

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 16:43
Leaner summer.solace>(summer.solace):
Come on John, the fgr.a obtained the park ( grab sample of 24.0 oz per ton Au ) the licences for exploration are being drafted and time is running out for you! You won't be able to short the stock anymore because you don't or won't have a large enough position to play these games anymore. Oh happy days are here again!! Shes an open pit GOLD MINE, Johnny boy!!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 16:43
Tortfeasor Huh?>(Huh?):
I just noticed a paucity of pungent posts this afternoon, ie. no posts for the past four hours--are you all just disgusted or having nothing to say in this investment climate?

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 16:40
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Hi Tort and fellow Kitcoites!...looks like we went off the air on my first day back in cyberspace and I am tryin to decifer if this a good or bad omen or just plain good old bad luck....Though still road weary I'm contemplating buying more gold shares and if anyone has any info on HM,ABX,NEM, or any of the other majors,it would be appreciated...and yes Mooney, I know this is not the forum to discuss gold shares but who cares what the rules are....I certainly don't!...Three+ weeks in the states and I've turned into another ugly American....Again it's great to be back with my friends.....and enemies at Kitco!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 16:40
Tortfeasor Joke for the day>(Joke for the day):
Since often we say what we don't mean on this forum and people who read what we write often don't understand the meaning of either what we posted or what we meant by the post I project the following story in sympathy for that lack of communication.

A farmer walked into an attorney's office wanting to file for a
divorce. The attorney asked, May I help you? The farmer said, Yea,
I want to get one of those dayvorce's.
The attorney said, well do you have any grounds? The farmer said,
Yea, I got about 140 acres. The attorney said, No, you don't
understand, do you have a case? The farmer said, No, I don't have a
Case, but I have a John Deere.
The attorney said, No you don't understand, I mean do you have a
grudge? The farmer said, Yea I got a grudge, that's where I park my
John Deere. The attorney said, No sir, I mean do you have a suit?
The farmer said, Yes sir, I got a suit. I wear it to church on
The exasperated attorney ( not long-suffering like the Tortfeasor would be ) said, Well sir, does your wife beat you up or anything?
The farmer said, No sir, we both get up about 4:30.
Finally, the attorney says, Okay, let me put it this way. WHY DO
And the farmer says, Well, I can never have a meaningful conversation with her.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:58
GFD Competitive Currencies>(Competitive Currencies):
Vieserre: Devaluation of the bhat, etc. is not threatening to the yen. The reason for this is that Japanese concerns have been moving manufacturing out to south eastern countries like Thailand for years. What the current devaluation means is that Japanese products manufactured using Thai components will be cheaper and Japanese capital can buy more of Thailand.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:57
Kuston - How would one earn respect on this site?
Perhaps, oh, I don't know, be one of the few people
to predict gold was going down since last September
and the Dow was going to continue to rise? To predict
that Flag was indeed not a moon shot but a Mooney/RJ2
enterprise after they had a few too many shots?
To point out those people who are consistently wrong
or consistently hiding behind multiple handles? How indeed
could one go about earning respect on this site?

Oh, I don't care if you call me Hepcat
As part of your Kitcowboys crazy games
It reminds me of young tykes on the playground
calling each other names

But then some of us grew up and got a life
and a job and traveled and shopped at Saks'
While others stuck in junior high school,
told tales tales but didn't earn enough to pay taxes.

Oh, I said gold to three-two-five, and then wait
for further advice
But it didn't matter, you didn't listen, and so
you'll miss out twice

If you say the world don't change, but you don't change
You fullfill your own prediction
But the world is changing, it's gold that's not changing
it's currently headed in one direction

Down, down, down

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:52
Bob A work>(work):
Regards PDG Thanks

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:49
INFO @for u>(@for u):
LONDON, July 16 ( Reuter ) - Bullion was fixed at $319.50 per ounce on Wednesday afternoon, unchanged from the morning setting, as the market regained some its lost confidence.

The gold market had been shaken ever since the Australian central bank announced at the beginning of July that it had sold 167 tonnes of gold from reserves over the previous six months.

The bullion price dipped to a 12-year low of $131.60 and its stuttering recovery since then has kept market nerves on edge.

The price in New York gapped higher when it opened, reversing a move lower which set in last night near the close.

Shortly after the fixing the Comex August futures were $320.50, up $1.50 and going some way to confirm European dealers' views that the price was manipulated lower late Tuesday.

``The close was engineered lower in New York last night by one player who just offered and offered it down,'' a dealer said.

A range of $318.00-$322.00 was forecast for Wednesday, which raised the floor almost $5.00 from the recent low.

But one dealer said: ``The market is a bit confused. You wouldn't want to go too long with this guy selling in New York.''

The market ignored a report late yesterday that a Russian trade union official estimated domestic gold output at only 80 tonnes this year compared with 130 tonnes calculated by Gold Fields Mineral Services ( GFMS ) for 1996.

``It may be that this figure does not include production from the artels ( mining co-operatives ) which made up about half last year's total,'' said GFMS chief executive Stewart Murray.

Attempts to lift gold from further collapse were not helped by European stock markets, led by Britain, France and Germany rampaging to new records on Wednesday, while the reinvigorated dollar again traded above 116 yen and around 1.80 marks.

The UK's FTSE 100 index was up more than 90 points to 4,990 in mid-afternoon, charging further into record territory within grasp of the 5,000 hurdle.

Banks contributed almost half of the FTSE's advance.

Silver and the platinum group metals were almost unchanged all day, with silver at $4.31/$4.33, platinum at $404.50/$408.50, up $1.50, and palladium $2.25 ahead at $173.75/$177.75.

``People probably got their fingers burned yesterday. Silver looks like a buy-the-dips market,'' a dealer said.

He added that a target would be $4.40, which silver had failed to breach several times in the past few weeks.

11:09 07-16-97

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:41
to Bob A. (about PDG)>((about PDG)):
PDG and KRY pending news releases or something ? regarding properties in Ven.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:39
Scott @Almost in bed>(@Almost in bed):
Steve : You get up late eh, its 2:39am in Brisbane. About the same time I get up in the pm.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:35
Steve - Perth>(
Looking forward to the next series of Ted & Tortfeasor. Time for the sack. Will look in again at 9pm USA time. I get up late.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:31
Tortfeasor Ted>(Ted):
I just received word that Ted is back. You should be receiving his powerful but pithy posts pronto.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:30
Steve - Perth>(
Aluminium rising. Would someone be so kind as to throw some light on the direction of Aluminium for next 1 - 2 years, after reading the following?
I am looking at associated Stocks in this area.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:29
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Steve : Interesting that the share price moves with gold when it has no effect on the company. In fact, a lower price should make the share price go up. Just goes to show that people know nothing about investing.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:26
Steve @read it>(@read it):
SCOTT: Saw your post the previously. Thanks. Interesting. This is the sort of interesting information people could give me about Barrick gold, instead of worrying about their ethnic paranoia.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:23
Steve - Perth>(
Banks must be ready for euro from day one....
PS. You are reading this on the net, before the business people in
Sydney have even got their Financial Review Newspapers. They are still
in bed!!!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:19
Scott @theBank In Brisbane>(@theBank In Brisbane):
Steve: some e-mail from Coolgardie Gold on the golds current effect on them :

Dear Sir,
You may or may not be aware that we sold our only production asset ( ie 50%
of the Gold Mines of Coolgardie- GMC ) and we were paid in March. We now
have approximately $12 million in cash and no debt. We are currently
seeking new projects and the fall in gold price is to our advantage as many
projects struggle.
Our timing in moving out of GMC now seems perfect and your company has a
new management team since last July and we are optimistic about the future.
Unfortunately our share price has fallen with the rest of the market but
for example, Herald Resources who were our JV partner and who we sold our
50% to were at approximately $1.80 12 months ago and are now $0.55.
I trust that answers your query.

Mal Smartt
Chief Financial Officer

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:15
Steve - Perth>(
Following article on Taiwan coming to rescue Asian currency for trade favours is REAL smart. No wonder Taiwan is so successful.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:15
Bob A atwork>(atwork):
Anyone know why no quotes on PDG ?

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:08
Steve - Perth>(
Small Aussie Miners worried by predators as gold falls

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:06
GVC @Jerry Favors stuff>(@Jerry Favors stuff):
Taken from the Jerry Favors page from Market WEB:

. WE must now allow for somewhat

higher prices before final top but we still do not believe

prices will move significantly above 8000 before we start a

major decline,even if we close above 8000 this week.All time

cycles call for a top in this time frame,and the wave

structure and the Bradley suggests we are no more than a few

days away from that top.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 12:04
GFD Russian Gold>(Russian Gold):
Panda: Gad I'm snarky today! I just couldn't help but think that the REAL story about the Russians buying gold goes something like this: ... of course if I could sell the gold in my grandmothers teeth I wouldn't hesitate! But since we did that last year and we don't have even have dust left in the vaults we have to say something and so to give a postive spin, like the americans always do, we are just saying to the press we are buying and not selling... :- )

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 11:56
Steve - Perth>(
John Howard discovers that profit is not made by public servants in Canberra, but by manufacturers that make computer hardware & software. Obviously he does not follow US High Tech stocks. What worries the average Australian ( I do political 'phone polling, so I know ) is that Australia is being run by total .........'s, who are so far behind the international scene, it is scary for us. The good news is that Howard has just worked out that you can't keep borrowing money to make Social Security payments, while we hand obscene profits out to multinationals that have the Australian Treasury Dept all sown up.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 11:41
Steve - Perth>(
Goldman Sachs has negative outlook for Aussie & NZ Currencies in short term.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 11:38
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Been wathcing the crude for August. Been looking good to me for the last couple days! I say if we see numbers above 19.85, it should bode quite well for a NICE runup!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 11:33
Steve - Perth>(
Mine Chief at Australian Reserve Bank Talks
Nothing like a bit of insider trading, eh? We're top blokes, us Aussies, for allowing our super rich to sit on our Central Bank. We don't even go to the trouble of putting Federal Governors up as front men for our big money people, unlike the USA.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 11:26
Steve - Perth>(
Another Gold mining project cancelled.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 11:20
Steve - Perth>(
John Howard's lot is finally waking up to Foreign Trade Zones. I requested a copy of BHP's submission to the Australian Fed. Govt. Amazed to see US has up to 500 separate factories etc registered invdividually as Foreign Trade Zones, with all the added extras that go with it.
Howard floats tax havens to boost jobs

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 11:17
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
D.A. -- I agree with you gold market assessment. Further, I think if we see a close above 321.5 or so Aug., We should see 335. That's not saying that lower numbers would not be in the offing at the open tomorrow just before a runup begins. Just be aware of 'possibilities'. BUT, should we see a close below 319.5, I do believe we'll be heading south. Probably a lot!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 11:03
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Comex Gold up 1.50!...Thanks for the welcome back Vieserre and Steve-Perth!!!!...Had a very strange and interesting trip but right now I am BURNT!...A great day to be back as it's a beautiful sunny day on the ocean but for now there are mucho errands to do....I missed this place ..
and KITCO!...Will be in yer faces later dudes!!! and go GOLD!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 10:55
Steve - Perth>(
Bas: You will be pleased to know that I am NOT anti-semitic, but am not a dumb Gentile either. I have some very close Jewish friends in the WA Liberal Party. We agree on many issues. However it is fairly safe to say that a number of Jews, such as Joseph Gutnick, are extremely successful business people. Good for him. It was commented on recently however, how they will quickly move on from one successful venture to another, capital intact. My passing interest was whether Gutnick had any Jewish friends in Barrick to network with I don't know their Directorship details. Hoping someone might. But from your comments it seems you wish for Kitco to evolve into a politically correct discussion group. Sorry, as a contrarian, I'm NOT politically correct. I enjoy going against the trend of masses going over the cliff. I suspect most of the regulars here are similarly contrarian in their outlook. Otherwise they wouldn't be here. Gotta take the punches mate.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 10:54
MoreGold @Why are the Russians (Almaz) buying palladium? Do they really have the goods?>(@Why are the Russians (Almaz) buying palladium? Do they really have the goods?):

Wednesday July 16 10:03 AM EDT

NY precious metals higher early on light volumes

NEW YORK, July 16 ( Reuter ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures were higher early Wednesday, on light
volumes, with the complex still consolidating after its slide last week.

``There was some Australian producer hedging in gold overnight, but also some good Asian merchant buying and, with the
locals also playing it from the long side today, gold gapped higher on the open on COMEX this morning,'' one COMEX
floor trader said.

COMEX August gold was up $1.30 at $320.30 early, as the contract continued to find a price base, after the slide to
new contract lows at $314.60 seen last week.

In the bullion market, spot gold was quoted $319.20/70, compared to the London Wednesday morning fix at $319.50
and the New York close Tuesday around $318.50/00.

But implied gold lease rates rose further Wednesday to around 2.60 pct for one month, up from 2.35 pct Tuesday, as
hedge funds borrowed to fund short positions, traders said.

Gold fixed at a 12 year low last week at $315.75 in London, in the wake of news of a sale of 167 tonnes of gold by the
Reserve Bank of Australia ( RBA ) .

The Australian dollar has slumped to a new 18 month low in the wake of the RBA sale, which has allowed gold prices in
Australian dollar terms to recover slightly from ten year lows around A$426.00 to around $434.00, but Australian gold
miners are taking advantage of the bounce to put on additional hedges, analysts said.

COMEX September silver was up 0.8 cent at $4.305 an ounce, and the contract continues to hold above the contract
lows at $4.175 seen last week.

Meanwhile, the platinum group metals ( PGM ) physical market remained highly backwardated, despite reports the first first
shipment of Russian platinum in six months will arrive in Tokyo Thursday.

Shipments of palladium resumed last week and another shipment is expected Friday.

But platinum prices ended higher on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange ( TOCOM ) overnight.

On NYMEX early Wednesday October platinum was up $4.10 at $390.50 an ounce, while NYMEX September
palladium was up $3.95 at $156.25.

U.S. refining sources said they had not seen any offers from Almaz in the U.S. market, and in fact had seen Almaz buying
on the palladium fix early Wednesday and on NYMEX Tuesday.

In the physical market, PGM lease rates eased a little though early Wednesday to around 30 percent for one month
platinum and 70 percent for one month palladium, refining sources said.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 10:46
Patti @govt.scenario>(@govt.scenario):
CrystalBall - your ant story reminded me of this one -

And the Lord spoke to Noah and said: In six months I'm going to make it
rain until the whole earth is covered with water and all the evil people
are destroyed. But I want to save a few good people, and two of every
kind of living thing on the planet. I am ordering you to build an Ark.

And in a flash of lightning he delivered the specifications for an Ark.
OK, said Noah, trembling in fear and fumbling with the blueprints.

Six months, and it starts to rain, thundered the Lord. You'd better
have my Ark completed, or learn how to swim for a very long time.

And six months passed. The skies began to cloud up and rain began to

The Lord saw that Noah was sitting in his front yard, weeping. And there
was no Ark. Noah, shouted the Lord, Where is my Ark? A lightning
bolt crashed into the ground next to Noah.

Lord, please forgive me! begged Noah. I did my best. But there were
big problems. First I had to get a building permit for the Ark
construction project, and your plans didn't meet code. So I had to hire
an engineer to redraw the plans. Then I got into a big fight over whether or not the Ark needed a fire sprinkler system. My neighbors objected,claiming I was violating zoning by building the Ark in my front yard, so I had to get a variance from the city planning commission.

Then I had a big problem getting enough wood for the Ark because there
was a ban on cutting trees to save the Spotted Owl. I had to convince U.S. Fish and Wildlife that I needed the wood to save the owls. But they wouldn't let me catch any owls. So no owls. Then the carpenters formed a union and went out on strike. I had to negotiate a settlement with the National Labor Relations Board before anyone would pick up a saw or a hammer. Now we have 16 carpenters going on the boat, and still no owls.

Then I started gathering up animals, and got sued by an animal rights
group. They objected to me taking only two of each kind. Just when I
got the suit dismissed, EPA notified me that I couldn't complete the Ark
without filing an environmental impact statement on your proposed flood.
They didn't take kindly to the idea that they had no jurisdiction over
the conduct of a Supreme Being. Then the Army Corps of Engineers wanted a map of the proposed new flood plain. I sent them a globe.

Right now I'm still trying to resolve a complaint from the Equal Employment opportunity Commission over how many Croatians I'm supposed to hire; the IRS has seized all my assets claiming I'm trying to avoid paying taxes by leaving the country, and I just got a notice from the state about owing some kind of use tax. I really don't think I can finish your Ark for at least another five years, Noah wailed.

The sky began to clear. The sun began to shine. A rainbow arched across
the sky. Noah looked up and smiled. You mean you're not going to
destroy the earth? Noah asked, hopefully.

No, said the Lord sadly, Government already has.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 10:46
D.A. financial.oddities>(financial.oddities):

Here's an interesting pricing. August Fed Funds futures are trading 3 ticks below current Fed Funds rate. Thus putting Fed tightening between now and then at something like a 10% probability. Considering the minutes from the last Fed meeting left us with a tightening bias and one member formally dissenting ( Brodeaus ) looking for an immediate rate hike this is some pretty aggressive betting. Of course with the dollar surging this is an implicit tightening so perhaps the markets are right.

Speaking of the dollar surging, gold is now the second strongest currency in the world over the past 10 days or so. It would appear the the gold short case is resting more on the currency play these days. Everyone will be keyed up going into the close looking for another short attack. If one doesn't occur, the bull counter attack may begin. With silver not budging to the downside during the last gold swing down it may be the hard edge of the bull horn. Don't you just love these mixed military metaphors? Can we post music along with our ditherings? Trumpets blaring, shells exploding!! Charge ..........!!!!!!!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 10:44
Steve - Perth>(
TED: Welcome back mate!! The Kitco crew have missed you badly.
Re: Gold. IMUHO ( in my unhumble opinion ) gold may have further to go down yet. The are some important barriers crash test yet. If not great. If so, watch out. Exciting times. I think you will really like Donald's posts. It's like having your grandfather who lived through the depression providing timely well worn advice in times of need. Mine did, but died two years ago. His advice. Don't have too much debt & you'll get by.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 10:41
Vieserre home->(home-):
TED: Welcome, it is good to have you back.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 10:37
KRY and PDG @both halted>(@both halted):
This should liven up the day a little.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 10:30
John Disney>(
To All ---
Woops - someone's been reading my mail - DDeep fell from 13.5 to 10
today on the announcement. So fancy arbitrage is off, luv. Blyvy is
2.5 so ratio is correct. Buffels is 9.8 which still shows a 10 per cent
advantage versus buying DDeep directly.
If you recall, I said I saw 10 in the cards for DDeep. How could I have
gotten that right when I get so many other things wrong.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 10:29
Ron William Safire, Contrarian>(William Safire, Contrarian):

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 10:29
RJ US likes its Gold>(US likes its Gold):
Laryn - The US Mint purchased gold on the open market to mint the American Eagle. Gold in Fort Knox in sacrosanct.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 10:21
Grandma Web TV and a pot of tea>(Web TV and a pot of tea):
Thanks to all of you fine young people for the bracing interchange that is taking place here this morning. I enjoy it so much.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 10:12
CrystalBall @AmericaToday>(@AmericaToday):

The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter. The grasshopper thinks he's a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away. Come winter, the ant is warm and well fed. The grasshopper has no food or shelter so he dies out in the cold.


Come winter, the shivering grasshopper calls a press conference and demands to know why the ant should be allowed to be warm and well fed while others are cold and starving. CBS, NBC and ABC show up to provide pictures of the shivering grasshopper next to video of the ant in his comfortable home with a table filled with food. America is stunned by the sharp contrast. How can it be that, in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper is allowed to suffer so?
Then a representative of the NAAGB ( The national association of green bugs ) shows up on Nightline and charges the ant with green bias,and makes the case that the grasshopper is the victim of 30 million years of greenism. Kermit the Frog appears on Oprah with the grasshopper, and everybody cries when he sings It's not easy being green. Bill and Hillary Clinton make a special guest appearance on the CBS Evening News to tell a concerned Dan Rather that they will do everything they can for the grasshopper who has been denied the prosperity he deserves by those who benefited unfairly during the Reagan summers, or as Bill refers to it, the Temperatures of the 80's.
Richard Gephardt exclaims in an interview with Peter Jennings that the ant has gotten rich off the back of the grasshopper, and calls for an immediate tax hike on the ant to make him pay his fair share. Finally, the EEOC drafts the Economic Equity and Anti-Greenism Act, retroactive to the beginning of the summer. The ant is fined for failing to hire a proportionate number of green bugs and, having nothing left to pay his retroative taxes, his home is confiscated by the government. Hillary gets her old law firm to represent the grasshopper in a defamation suit against the ant, and the case is tried before a panel of federal judges that Bill appointed from a list of single-parent welfare moms who can only hear cases on Thursday's between 1:30 and 3pm when there are not talk shows scheduled. The ant loses the case.
The story ends as we see the grasshopper finishing up the last bits of the ant's food while the government house he's in, which just happens to be the ant's old house, crumbles around him since he doesn't know how to maintain it. The ant has disappeared in the snow. And on the TV, which the grasshopper bought by selling most of the ant's food, they are showing Bill Clinton standing before a wildly applauding group of Democrats announcing that a new era of fairness has dawned in America.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 10:12
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SPEED, SCOTT, ALL When the Dow was at 8001 the Dow/Gold ratio was only 24.92. The high of July 8th still stands. ( No guarantees! )

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 10:12
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SPEED, SCOTT, ALL When the Dow was at 8001 the Dow/Gold ratio was only 24.92. The high of July8th still stands. ( No guarantees! )

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 09:53
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
After a long three+ plus week odyssey in the states I come back to find gold down over 20 dollars but maybe I have brought back the good times as gold is up and the XAU is up .83 and climbing...and we have DOW 8,000...
Maybe it's wishful thinking but it doesn't appear there could be much downside potential to the downtrodden gold shares and I am now tempted to add to my position....But am still seeing road signs after a 21 hour drive back to Cape Breton,and don't want to do anything rash YET...

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 09:43
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Dow 8001

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 09:41
PDG Shorter @Via Long KRY>(@Via Long KRY):
Those that are long XAU futures might want to read the KRY story. As this story unfolds, I expect PDG to loose 30% in the near term. XAU heading for lower 80's? PDG heading towards 10? KRY towards the sky? Possible, its possible...

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 09:35
panda @?>(@?):
Russia wants to increase their GOLD RESERVES.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 09:28
John Disney>(
To All

DDeep deal with buffels and Blyvoor has been revised
to the great advantage of Buffels and Blyvoor
Previously a buffels shareholder got 77 shares of
DD per 100 shares of buffels - now he gets 110
shares of DD per 100 buffels -
Previously a Blyvoor shareholder got 20 shares
of DD for 100 shares of blyvoor - now he gets 25 shares.
Previously a DD shareholder got some kind of long
maturity DD option as I recall. This seems to have
dissappeared from the agreement.
The odd thing about the agreement is that it values
Buffels greater than DD - but buffels is trading at
about 30 % less than DDeep in the market. This is
either an arbitrager's dream come true or a big screwup
in the agreement.
To anyone interested in buying DD. Obviously dont
do it - but rather enter via blyvoor ADR or even better
via Buffels - bought in London or Joberg. Buffels is
clearly a better deal - trading 10.5 rand with DD at
about 13.5 - This makes Buffels worth 1.1 times 13.5 = 15
and you can get it for 10.5. Money for nothing ( unless
you believe gold crashes in which case why are you
reading this anyway ? )

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 09:27
Lurker14 Hilltop>(Hilltop):
Arden: Are the people who operate the Comex unaware of what they are doing? What is the explanation for the situation from the administration of the exchange?

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 09:23
nomercy lease rates>(lease rates):
One month lease rates reported up to 2.5%...

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 09:19
panda @>(@):
Is that an error on the Globex regarding the NDX? It's up 1775! This sure looks like blow off time.

Gold will rise, stocks will rise, the U.S. stock world will be happy... for a while. Apperance of deflation before the real inflation is seen. Foreign countries will move gold first?!

Gore's next speech, It's the currency, STUPID!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 09:15
House of cards?, er ah paper? I posted comex gold stocks last night and received an e-mail to explain it. Comex has 214,887 contracts out. There is only enough gold pledged to cover 3,480 of them. If someone decides to take delivery of the gold, the guys who wrote 211,407 contracts for 21 .1 MILLION ounces would have to find the gold elsewhere. A very comforting thought if you are short!!!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 09:12
Vieserre home>(home):
GEORGE S. COLE: I know it is the common view that gold should rise with a fall in the dollar as it encourages domestic inflation and reduces the price of gold in foreign currency, but conversely, many foreign investors appear to be attracted to gold due to the rise in the dollar as gold is a proxy for the dollar. So a rise in the dollar is not all bad.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 09:00
George Cole news>(news):

This morning's gold rally is especially significant because it is coming at a time of great dollar strength. Bad news ignored. If this much improved response to news continues look for a big move up within the next few weeks.

Whether rational or irrational the gold shorts sure are exuberant these days. The short interest is considerably higher today with gold at $320 than it was a year ago when bullion was $380. I suspect if gold drops another 10 bucks we will see a further exponential increase in the short interest. Talk about setting themselves up for a devastating counterattack… ..

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 08:57
Vieserre home>(home):
REOBEAR, D.A., PANDA, DONALD - Thanks for the comments.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 08:54
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
D.A. -- A long 'HOT' summer just beginning! The 'crap' was bound to happen sooner or later. It has always been just a matter of time! These are the opening shots across the bow of the 'ship'. We'll see how it responds!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 08:31
D.A. more.shells>(more.shells):

Another small outbreak going on in gay Paris.

Its getting awful hot for powers that be. The spin doctors are heading for some serious OT.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 08:22
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
BillD--A little more about the shells flying here:

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 08:19
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust):
EBN gold up 2.80? Are my eyes deceiving me? A few shots and devaluations and are we getting a gold reaction? Have times changed?
Ingotwetrust this morning!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 08:18
D.A. when.the.worm.turns>(when.the.worm.turns):

If it is indeed one player who is trying to get the gold market down it would appear that he has run into a bigger fish. The week before last when the real fun began on the July 3 NY close, I reported that my trading desk saw all the selling coming out of one house. That time the game was successful as the ensuing panic got the market all the way down to 314. Yesterdays attack has failed badly.

RJ: You once posted that you 'knew' gold was going down because you kicked it and nothing happened. It appears that someone has tried to kick it down pretty hard and all they have succeeded in doing is getting something to snort a little. Hope your trigger finger is quick. What was that movie, The Quick and the Dead.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 08:16
Donald: August is only two weeks away! Party on dude! Dow up, techs way up, gold ( this morning ) up! Unless you are the designated driver, join the irrationally exuberant. Yes there will be a morning after and one whopper of a hangover, but not today.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 08:14
BillD Sparce?>(Sparce?):
Sounds like space-talk...sparce = sparse!!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 08:13
BillD North Korea....>(North Korea....):
Panda...there was a quick blurb on NPR this morning...something about N. Korea firing artillery shells into S. Korea...but the news is SPARCE.

Have you ( or anybody ) got the scoop

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 08:07
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SPEED: August seems to far away. Stocks are soaring in Europe this AM, if that carries to the US we could close at 8100 today. It seems like a blowoff right now. Yesterday I thought that Compaq had peaked. It couldn't keep up with the rest of the tech's. Intel after hours was up another 3, a total of 6 for the day. How can it last at that pace? Something has to give.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 08:03
D.A. 280.and.down.the.middle>(280.and.down.the.middle):

Your musings are dead on and key to scenario. We are indeed in the competitive currency devaluation phase. In terms of economic growth this is of coarse a zero sum game. All that happens is that production is shifted around the world to the low currency bidder. At first look one might believe that the process is deflationary because people are competing to fill orders at lower prices, however, once the game has run full cycle and everyone has got back to their original relationships all one is left with is more paper and the same amount of goods. This is inflation. As my brother commented to me the other day, it appears we are headed for a worldwide Weimer Republic. Lets hope the political implications are not the same.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 07:53
Bob A.: If they use gold at any stage of manufacture then we might get away with discussing them here. Otherwise, my email address is correct. Gold used in computer components is largely lost to the market. Old pcs are handed down to schools and other charitable organizations or else junked. I have no idea what quantities are thus deleted from the market.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 07:49
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Wall Street Journal, lead editorial is on devaluations. Devaluations will not mark the end of this world, but there will be a price to pay for the fact that it is now a bit shakier than it was before. Two major stories about Asia devaluations, bad loans, Japan problems, all generally gloomy.

Also: Story about Golden Rule Resources, possible salting of samples.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 07:14
Bob A to Speed>(to Speed):
Any thoughts on LSI ?

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 07:11
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Wall Street Journal story today, page A18 my edition. Gold fall worries Ghana. Gold earnings are $612.4 million, 41% of total exports.

Same page, Brazil currency turmoil story.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 07:06
Reify: I am one of a very few puffing tech stocks that I know of here, so I will assume some responsibility for causing your comments about bearishness on gold. Over the past 18 months ( or years ) , gold has been a terrible investment and a good trade only for the shorts. I don't have the skills to short, so I only trade long on stocks and funds and coins. Having said that, I eagerly await a bull market in gold. I have picked my stocks and funds and will move into them if and when gold recovers. RJ and others have helped remind me to separate my emotions from my decisions and I am making money again. Does that make me a bear? Perhaps we should define terms and include with bull and bear the notion of gold fan. A fan is someone who cheers for his team even when behind by 40 points. Anybody who has bought and held gold as an investment has taken a real thumping for a long time. I have some coins purchased when gold was $400/oz. It will be quite some time before they can be sold at a profit. Why not make money on techs or oils or anything else and move into gold when it becomes profitable? I am bullish on profit. The real winners in this game will be the ones who have correctly stayed invested in stocks for the last 5 years and who then move to gold when and if it takes off again. George Cole has my attention focused on August. If his thinking is correct, then I'll be bullish on gold again soon.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 07:02
Novice @Port Credit>(@Port Credit):
Selby: Thanks for the info on rhodium. I'd checked Bart's charts yesterday and found the rhodium one remarkable...reached $5,500/oz. in early 1991 and fell off to its current level. I've not read who producers are or what their potential for investing in is. If we think gold has dropped, the rhodium price collapse eclipses it and must have been especially painful.

Ted: Where are ya?

I'm gone.....

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 06:52
panda @?>(@?):
This cute, one player can move the gold price in the U.S.? I wonder who it is?

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 05:54
Donald @Home>(@Home):
VIESERRE: Re Currency Devaluations posted at 22:45. Your analysis is absolutely correct. Let me add my thoughts on some future developments on the increasing value of the dollar. Soon you will be hearing from U.S. exporters, usually automakers take the lead, complaining that they can not compete with the dollar at these levels. That exact situation occurred in October, 1987. On the 16th of October 1987 then Secretary of the Treasury, James Baker, made some sympathetic remarks about the complaints of the automobile manufacturers. Those remarks are credited with triggering the 1987 stock market crash.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 05:48
George Cole market reversals>(market reversals):
REIFY: Amen! The markets will be making major LONG-TERM reversals in August -- bear to bull for gold and bull to bear for stocks.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 05:42
George Cole gold up>(gold up):
August gold now UP $1.50 after being down sharply most of the night. Things are getting interesting.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 05:40
George Cole gold up>(gold up):
August gold now UP $1.50 after being down sharply most of the night. Things are getting interesting.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 05:00
Reify @take stock>(@take stock):
All- don't know why the sudden bearishness on the part of many that have ridden this market down. Sure some of the pros, like RJ, have given warnings, but the long term basics, which all are familiar with haven't changed. Would having been in Tech stocks, or some others that have gone up with the market's phenominal rise, have been a better investment over the last 18 months, no question. But taking stock here and now, as George S. has said before, we're closer to the bottom and a turn in the PMs, and now is not the time to panic.

When so many shorts in gold, and so much public hype in the news, is so evident, we must be near a major turn. This is how it's always been.
Whether one looks at charts, or studies fundamentals, it adds up to the same scenario. Nothing lasts forever. As it's been said those heavily on the short side are going to get uncomfortable with not making money fast enough, and will suddenly find themselves on the wrong side of the market. This will also be true of the stock markets, worldwide. The crowd, masses, are always wrong at major turns.

The turn may be or may not be at hand. Possibly some more could be squeezed out of stocks, or shorting gold, but I for one don't think trying is the prudent way to go.

As I've said before, I have a lot of respect for the RJs, but longer term I'll have to stick to my own decisions.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 05:00
Reify @take stock>(@take stock):
All- don't know why the sudden bearishness on the part of many that have ridden this market down. Sure some of the pros, like RJ, have given warnings, but the long term basics, which all are familiar with haven't changed. Would having been in Tech stocks, or some others that have gone up with the market's phenominal rise, have been a better investment over the last 18 months, no question. But taking stock here and now, as George S. has said before, we're closer to the bottom and a turn in the PMs, and now is not the time to panic.

When so many shorts in gold, and so much public hype in the news, is so evident, we must be near a major turn. This is how it's always been.
Whether one looks at charts, or studies fundamentals, it adds up to the same scenario. Nothing lasts forever. As it's been said those heavily on the short side are going to get uncomfortable with not making money fast enough, and will suddenly find themselves on the wrong side of the market. This will also be true of the stock markets, worldwide. The crowd, masses, are always wrong at major turns.

The turn may be or may not be at hand. Possibly some more could be squeezed out of stocks, or shorting gold, but I for one don't think trying is the prudent way to go.

As I've said before, I have a lot of respect for the RJs, but longer term I'll have to stick to my own decisions.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 04:16
Steve: Your post Jul 15 1997 11:07 containing the comment Any Jews in Barrick? What message are you trying to convey with this comment? It adds nothing to the debate and does not befit someone who is, as I believe you are, a member of the WA Liberal Party.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 04:06
EB I did read somewhere...>(I did read somewhere...):
that russia supplies 20% of the world platinum and 60% of palladium...for all those that did not know this.

going AWAY now


Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 04:00
EB answer...>(answer...):
I don't know but the large, robust lady has been practicing her scales.

away...doe rae me fa so la te doe!


Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 03:55
EB trivia...>(trivia...):
Russia supplies the world with how much Platinum?
a ) 60%
b ) 20%
c ) 75%
d ) ZERO, it as been thieved and blackmarketed to the Haas family.
e ) anybodies guess

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 03:36
John 16:23 : Please do not take this personnally, I mean you no
disrespect but I believe you must be new at this internet thing. Have
you thought about the number of people you reach when you post? Respect?
It is earned, not requested - this is the net! Your posts of the last
few weeks have immortalized the name hepcat on the net. It doesn't
matter if you like it or not - this is the net!!

I've stated this in the past and will continue to, it is vital everyone
think about thier future and plan accordingly. We are at the edge of
a new frontier - it will be the most exciting time in history for those
that prepare. It will be like the darkages for those that don't.
Technology is changing everything - one example is communication skills.
Person to person communication skills are not the same as net
communication skills. What you type/say can be forwarded, saved, read
unlimited times. Everyone will relearn alot of things if they don't want
to get left behind.

As for the hepcat thing - don't sweat it, things are changing so fast
no one will remember it once you make a few unhepcat like posts - this
is the net!!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 03:26
To all,
One of the great hints in recent news,please read this:
HEAVY GOLD LENDING.........very shooooort....
any comments?

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 03:07
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
One of these days people will look at the financial markets and realize;

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 02:36
Auric @home>(@home):

bb fisher-Your post of 02:22 is as thought provoking as that chart of the Dow 1919-1932 vs 1987-1997, which you posted 24 hours ago.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 02:22
bb fisher cheers>(cheers):

writes quite accurately that one of the primary functions of central banks most everywhere is to maintain liquidity and stability in their respective national financial systems. he is also quite right in recognizing that 'systemic risk' is rising and the central banks appear to be running to play catchup.... putting the fires out once they begin. whether it is billion doallr hedge funds or fairy tale political policies which aggravate unemployment the global financial system seems to lurch from one problem ( err challenge ) to another.

the key to all of these incipient and latent crises can be found in the now dying concept of national. with the advent of micro tech, the internet, borderless capital flows, no exchange controls, trans national corporations, trans national hedge funds, investors of all stripes increasingly 'globalised in their investments the ability of both central banks individually and in concert to stage manage the monetary system successfully has been undergoing radical devolution for 3 decades. only now, is it beginning to show visibly to all. quite simply in this new instant electronic world and on the internet everything is either local or global, but NOTHING is national.

monetary nationalism is rapidly fading away while at the same time ethnic nationalism is rapidly rising. the political correctness movement everywhere in the west is an attempt to buy peace within multi ethnic regimes a while longer while the financial keys to the kingdom are no longer within any one governments possession.

where this will all lead is anyones best guess. one thing is for certain however, the industrial age is over and with it will go most of the inflexible dinosaur like institutions created by it. whether the central banks make it beyond the first quarter of the new century is not by any means a sure thing.

systemic risk is rising and going to continue to rise as information technology continues to ever more rapidly erode all kinds of industrial age monopolies in monetary policy, political policy and soon most importantly in the definition of money itself.

the current highly restrictive US government policy on robust encryption is the essence of what i am talking about. without powerful private encryption technology business will not migrate to the net. banking will become increasingly insecure in years ahead as more and more of what we save and spend becomes digital. the other side of the cryptographic coin is more worrisome for the state, once robust systems are in place the ability of any government will drop to NIL in their ability to assess the money flows. who has it, where its going and from whom did it come from. shortly after this even who defines money will change. right now it is nation states and their captive central banks who define it, control it and seek to quantify it. once distributed encrypted digital money becomes commonplace all taxes beyond those levied on consumption will be for lack of a better word voluntary.

does anyone seriously think the information revolution now well underway will change the way we work, the way we live. the way we communicate, and NOT change the way we perceive money... the most important concept in any distributed economic system?

systemic risk is only just getting started as the glue which holds every national government together is dissovled in the years just ahead.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 02:21
News @Latin America>(@Latin America):

Click here for story on Brazil stock market.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 02:20
Mooney Moonstep@Earl.and .the cherokee.followers>(Moonstep@Earl.and .the cherokee.followers):
Earl - Disquietingly meaningful as per usual.
cherokee - When distant and unfamiliar and complex things are communicated to
great masses of people, the truth suffers a considerable and often a
radical distortion. -------- Walter Lippmann

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 02:03
Mooney @telecaster>(@telecaster):
telecaster @ 00:53 - Good Point!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 01:49
Lurker2 @>(@):

To all: Any comments about Latin America? Brazil stock market dropped about 10% yesterday.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 01:22
Front: Just a thought .... .... Perish it. ..... ( :- )

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 01:19
Larryn gold sales>(gold sales):
RJ... There are limited gold sales of US gold made by the US mint to sell American Eagles. It was approved by Congress in 1985 ( I believe that is the year. ) I'm sure the volume is not much.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 01:15
Front Women and children first ?>(Women and children first ?):

I had wondered how shorts might short a mutual fund ( since there are more mutual funds now than stocks ) and apparently they have found a way to hit the funds where it hurts. What the process is, is to find a fund that has NAVS that have diminished ( like most Gold funds these days ) and note which fund has had the highest redemptions lately and find out exactly what stocks the funds have in their portfolio. Knowing that when the owners of the mutuals funds get a bit scared, they will want to redeem their monies, the shorts short the stocks in the fund to cause it to become self feeding. In other words, start the price downwards by causing the stocks in the fund to be less through shorting, some of the customers get worried and redeem, forcing the fund to sell quicker and oftener in order to have the cash to meet the redemptions which causes the prices to go down further which causes even more people to ask for redemptions. In otherwords, a run on a fund. They're letting the fear of a fall cause a fall and become self-fulfilling. Is this what will happen when Gold drops through its next support level ( from 300 to 299? ) or if the CB's even thinks out loud ( in a whisper ) of dumping a bit of Gold? We could all be hoping for an increase up to $250 from lower levels in the future if fear ever takes hold. There are an awful lot of mutual funds out there with jittery owners and it really wouldn't take much to cause a me first attitutde! Just a thought ....


Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 00:58
Bob M: Can you be more specific. Many of us labor under the assumption that the US gold reserve cannot be sold. ...... Did someone attach a rescinding rider unto a congressional pay raise of some sort?

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 00:53
telecaster @lease rates>(@lease rates):
John Disney - My understanding is that we may be seeing a deviation from the status quo due to the fact that The Australian CB was active in leasing the metal. As they were selling off the bullion, they had to cease renewing leases as they expired.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 00:43
Vieserre @22:45: Political expediency, preordains and ultimately demands, competitive devaluations. It is nothing more than projecting bankrupt domestic policy to the international scene. Presently, we are bearing unwilling witness to the final act. It's called beggar thy neighbor. In double time.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 00:33
John Disney>(
For All
What is happening on the lease rate - The One month
is about double what it normally is - will some of you
guys that understand the dynamics of forward selling,
leasing from CB etc etc etc - please comment. Looks like
somebody somewhere is paying MORE for gold than they
used to - Am I being stupid

For Savage-
Re Durban deep - Its long odds and the MOST marginal
bet. Some considerations follow -

1. Their results will be out in a few weeks - They
must be in big loss - Their costs are somewhere around
350 before capex. We'll know more soon.
2. They have a project to increase production and
lower cost which will come on in the September quarter.
3. Their deal to incorporate blyvoor and buffels seems
to have come unglued for the time being - If they can
pull that off it will be very good for them BUT they
will have to give up more stock I believe ( if they can
make the deal fly at all ) .
4. As I have said many times - their reserves are so
cheap at the present price that its simply silly.

All the above notwithstanding, the last time I
looked at the chart, it looked to me like as low as
10 rand might be coming. ( say $2.5 on the ADR - am I
being greedy ) . Moreover, at 250$ gold the mine
must be a basket case - a certain closer - its small
production anyway.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 00:32
telecaster @kry>(@kry):
IBT - Here you have it from KRY's own lawyer. Only the copper concessions were annuled in 1996. The gold concessions were annuled years earlier. Funny how he doesn't have a damn thing to say about those. Tell me who is doing the spinning.

The Court accepted all our actions against the resolutions of the Energy and Mines Ministry in 1996 which affected our rights, Ricardo Cottin, an attorney for Crystallex in Caracas told Reuters in a brief telephone interview.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 00:17
GFD @20:43: ( Still trying to catch up ) ..... If left to their own devices, the central banks of the world would very likely remonetize gold. Unfortunately, it is not their call to make. They exist as little more than the handmaidens of political and commercial interests. Such an action would impose a level of fiscal and commercial discipline totally unacceptable to each party both jointly and severally. Could either of these august and revered bodies exist in their present, corpulent state, without the gratuitous effects of humongous debt? Remonetization? Not without a cleansing agent. ie, national bankruptcy, insurrection, general revolt and etc.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 00:14
itsy bitsy spider @water spout>(@water spout):
One more thing on KRY and PDG ( the lighter side ) :

If you are to believe the PDG IR ... and KRY may only end up with the copper concessions and not the gold ( I guess they will be digging side by side ) , maybe that's not such a bad thing given the current environment for gold. : )

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 00:09
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
Telecaster ( regarding your post ) : by the way, this comment is from a PDG cheerleader. see comments below:

Skylark - Their case for a claim to the gold concessions was ruled inadmissible due to the statute of limitations. Their case for a claim to the copper concessions was ruled admissible.

The gold concessions were outside the jurisdiction of Judge Acura based on time limitations. They can, and will, be included in the CSJ in VEN ( who ruled in KRY's favor in all related matters ... same 5 judges, too ) .

I guess you believe the PDG spokesman that KRY would have rights to the copper in the ground but not the gold. That's an interesting concept.

Really getting some rest now. Don't want to miss all the fun tomorrow.


Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 00:06
Leaner ABX.letsseeifi'vegotitright>(ABX.letsseeifi'vegotitright):
Small Canadian company stakes land in the USA under a 19th century law and picks up one of the nations largest Gold areas for song and dance.
The deal goes through because the law is the law, after each political
representative resigns or leaves in disgrace ( left position to female scapegoat ) each person recieves posts in the small company that makes
it big because of its prowness Mulhoney gets a signing bonus of 200,000
shares of Monkman's ( American Barrick ) dig the first name of the company,
maybe that is a token position for this Canadian company to make it look good in the good ol USA. Please people wake up before you lose the real
truths of who behind the GOLD demise or shall I say you're just a bunch of all day suckers!! GOLD RULES FOOLS!!

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 00:02
ezau yru@au>(yru@au):
It does not take a Brookings institute study to know that
it will require a gold standard in Europe to make a Euro
dollar possible. Or a guru either. Multi-tier paper money
and wire transferes would melt the wires to say nothing
of y2k problem. :- )

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 00:00
telecaster @>(@):
Skylark - Their case for a claim to the gold concessions was ruled inadmissible due to the statute of limitations. Their case for a claim to the copper concessions was ruled admissible.

Date: Wed Jul 16 1997 00:00
John Disney>(
For DJ - wooops - the preceeding was in response to your inspired
unusual suspects - Do you sometimes write scripts for Oliver Stone

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:56
John Disney>(
Who Moi? Anything is possible - Anyway, it seemed
to help the negotiations. The NUM and Chamber of Mines
have struck a deal which links wage increases to
productivity. The Investec newsletter states that
productivity ( KG per man per annum ) would move from
1.41 to 1.71 under the new agreement. Kloof for example
under that scenario would see bottom line earnings
change from a loss of 1.99 cps to a profit of 44 cps
at the current rand gold price.
Its interesting to watch the NUM change from a super
aggresive red infiltrated management hating union into
a bunch of lambs - all in a few years.
Take this little item - add say a 20 % rand
devaluation , let the gold price slide to 200$/once -
and Mr Munk may see Barrick taken over by Anglos -
Surprise surprise.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:49
Skylark @>(@):
IB Trader: Is the decision final, or does this mean KRY's claim has been recognized for legal ajudification at a lower court. My recollection was that any decision by the court would not put an end to the matter.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:47
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
Nighty nighty. Heh ... another day ... another rumor ... another interesting story ... : ) zzzzz

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:43
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
Mack Truck: KRY was up too ( along with PDG ) . PDG is among several majors that have been put on buy lists recently. We'll see what happens. Don't take the jabs personally ... just funnin'. I think that PDG truck has a flat ( we'll see ) . I hope you not long in PDG.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:42
ark salted@core.brX>(salted@core.brX):
So those with the cash are buying up gold/mines at these
going out of business gold sales. ABX is thinking about
buying GCM ( Great Central Mines in Aust. )

Who's next? Haven't drowned yet after being keel-hauled.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:41
DJ Where in the World?>(Where in the World?):
REB and Steve: I stand corrected. I don't see Tokyo on Bart's chart and don't know when it opens, but geographically what you say makes sense. It also makes sense that a consistent move like this would happen at the opening. So it is Tokyo that is the culprit -- hmmmm?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:39
telecaster @KRY>(@KRY):
i b trader - My understanding is that KRY's challenge of the annulment of their gold claims was ruled inadmissible, due to the statute of limitations ( SOL ) , and must be appealed. In order to appeal, they must first prove that they have a valid claim to the property. Do I have this wrong.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:37
Skylark: Thanks. That was a shithot answer. I do like the part about it is all the same once the shorts are in. I invested in BGEIX from a contrarian view point. So far it has only made me look stupid over the last couple of weeks.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:36
panda @really gone!>(@really gone!):
I need a new job! 72% raise?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:32
REB na>(na):
DJ: If you look at Bart's tables of ten minute prices, I believe you will see that Tokyo opens after Sydney, and one hour before Hong Kong. This coincides with the drops the last three days.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:32
macktruck @runoverbya>(@runoverbya):
Itsy bitsy trader
I respect your opinions and for all I know you may be right. Just curious though as to why Placer was up today and gold was down almost $2.00 and Barrick was down as well.

PS Let's leave the personal denegrations at home ok?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:29
Leaner reply@cmax>(reply@cmax):
Cmax does that mean we have the most honest politicians up in NA,
X President Bush and X Prime Minister Mulhoney work for the Munkman, they hold alot of Brown Sugar is it by legal means

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:28
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Vieseere This is Professor Millers' email posted by George S Cole this AM Goodnight All

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:27
telecaster @Xecutive orders>(@Xecutive orders):
Bob M - Go on. I've been waiting to hear the rest of the story...

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:27
RJ No way!>(No way!):
Bob M - The US has never, nor will never sell a single ounce of gold. Someone is taking you for a ride. Short is the place to be, but don't count on US gold sales to make it happen.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:27
Skylark Shorting the Market>(Shorting the Market):
Machf15: I will take a stab at your question. A short in stock must be on an uptick - thus it is hard to drive a stock down, and the stock market comprises a number of different stocks - thus one must look at which stocks are being shorted ( the short interest in stock also includes arbitrage ) . So the ability to drive a stock market down by shorting certain stock is far less effective than shorting a singular commodity. But once the shorts are in place, the concept is the same. That is, the short interest provides additional fuel for a rise in the shorted stocks or commodity.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:27
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):
Amit: Regards London Gold Fixing information, click on the Kitco Precious Metals Spot Prices block above and then scroll down to History of London Gold Fix hightligted in blue and you might find the info you are looking for.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:26
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
Leaner: I believe your post hits it right on the nose on KRY.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:26
panda @zzzzzz>(@zzzzzz):
Vieserre -- I think you've got it. The games have begun. I wonder, what would be the best anchor to have in a gale?

Good night all............

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:24
Terry Oz@canada>(Oz@canada):
Interesting note Bill Buckler@20.17.

So it seems Bank of Oz has already LOST 10% of its reported gold sale proceeds , if it invested in $US Dollars

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:22
Bob M>(
Telecaster- they do not need to write legislation-ever heard of Executive Orders?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:21
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
Mack Truck ( and other bozos ) :

It is Placer Dum that will be saying .. I'm shocked!

The only items that weren't ruled in KRY's favor were not ruled on because they were outside the jurisdiction of the judge. Those decisions will be made by the CSJ in VEN ( which has ruled in KRY's favor previously ) . It appears to me, that the reporter got his news from the placer dum cheerleaders or has a reading comprehension problems ( when it came to interpreting the Judge's ruling ) .

I guess you may lose a little faith in Bloombug and Reuters?

: )

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:20
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
RJ, Thanks to both of you, Mr Rational and Mr Rabid, for the education of this little speculator.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:18
RJ Semi-Reportable>(Semi-Reportable):
EB - Stay away from numismatics like the plague! The premiums will forever wipeout any chance of profit. A collectable is only worth what someone will pay for it. As for numismatic coins, the vast majority are worth far less than listed in the books. If you have doubts, buy a collectable coin, then try to sell it.

Stay with bullion coins and buy low. The spread is usually 4% or less, this is an easily surmounted cost. If possible, buy a pure gold coin. The three most popular are the Maple Leaf, The Australian Nugget, and the Austrian Vienna Philharmonic. These are all .9999 pure. Beware of the Maple Leaf and the Krugerrand if you have concerns about reportability. When you buy gold, there is no requirement to report the purchase. When you sell bullion, Maple Leafs, or Krugerrands, the purchaser is required by law to take you social security number and report the sale to the IRS. If you refuse to supply a SSN, the purchaser is required to withhold 30% and forward that to the IRS. Other things being equal, the nonreportability of VP, NG, and the American Eagle makes these a more attractive holding.

By the way, there is no reporting requirement to the Platinum Maple Leaf. Reporting requirements may seem capricious, but there is reason to the madness. If ever a futures contract was traded on a commodity, it is reportable, all else is not. Reportable forms of gold are, bullion, ML, and KR. Silver: bullion, 90% dimes, quarters, and half dollars, as well as 40% half dollars. Platinum: only bullion is reportable.

I hope I have explained this coherently.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:17
telecaster @ ft knoX>(@ ft knoX):
Bob M. - If our govt could get ANY piece of legislation written and passed within a few weeks, the Earth would stand still.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:17
Savage (?):
JOHN DISNEY: Is Durbin Deep a good bet at this point? ALL: When this thing reverses, it won't be @ a dollar a day IMHHO.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:16
Bob M>(
US government quietly selling gold to redeem T Bonds for the as not to ingest more US currency into carefully

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:16
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Vieserre An excellent post, this is happening right in front of us. A little wave or tsunami? The email George Cole posted this AM for The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy by Professor Geoffrey P. Miller, this is a good read with inside info from Japan on their bubble crash. I haven't finished it yet ( I have an 05:00 meeting again! ) but if
it stays this informative we ought to see Vronsky about getting it posted on Gold Eagle ( if the Prof is interested ) . Some eerie similarities to USA 1997, no inflation in sight etc. Somehow it relates to what you are saying about currency devaluations but I am too smoked to verbalize it. Good Night

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:15
RMW (Thanks CMAX)>((Thanks CMAX)):
CMAX: Thanks for weighing in with your comments on KRY and Venezuela. Always a pleasure to read your comments.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:14
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
Hey Mack Truck or other clowns: We'll see. Who do think fed the information to the reporter about the case ( Was Reuters and Bloombug getting their hot story from the Placer Dum Cheerleaders ) . We'll see. You can always short it!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:12
Bob M>(
Lots of gold bears beginning to show up in here..the bottoming process` is slowly happening..but its not here the US governments actions over the next few weeks, keep an eye on Fort Knox, there is going to be more storage room available in there....

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:10
Amit Mohta>(
would like to know about LME and Zurich fixing mechanisms. Anyone who knows is requested to reply.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:09
GFD. Thanks for the answer.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:09
telecaster @ X>(@ X):
Byron - Don't buy any resource stocks ending in X. Bre-X, Solv-x, Crystallex. Whats NeX ? ;- )

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:04
Byron Polarities:>(Polarities:):
Is this Crystallex story going to be titled: The Son Of Bre-X? : )

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:04
Steve @>(@):
Bob M. I thought so !!!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:02
Could someone please enlighten me? If the blame for gold's fall is on all the shortsellers, then why is the stock market still going to record highs when the short interest there is the highest in 12 years? I thought a lot of short interest was suppose to be a contrarian's dream since eventually all the shorts have to cover, driving the price back up. What am I missing here?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 23:02
macktruck @runoverbya>(@runoverbya):
Itsy bitsy trader
Perhaps Reuters has it all wrong eh?
July 15, 1997

Venezuela court rules against Crystallex

CARACAS, July 15 ( Reuter ) - Venezuela's Supreme Court said Tuesday that the claim by
Canadian mining company Crystallex to concessions four and six of the gold-rich Las Cristinas
property in southeastern Venezuela was inadmissible.
The preliminary ruling, which legal sources said Crystallex would undoubtedly appeal, ruled the
Energy and Mines Ministry's decision to annual the concessions then owned by Inversora Mael
SA, could not be challenged because of the length of time elapsed. Crystallex bought Mael last
The decision basically declares inadmissible the case of Mael to the Cristinas gold concession,
said the legal source, who knew the details of the case well.
Crystallex made moves in early 1997 to reclaim the Mael concessions which were due to be
developed by a joint venture of Placer Dome Inc and state-owned Corporacion Venezolana de
Guayana ( CVG ) in a $576 million project.
A separate claim to the Mael's copper rights to the concession, revoked in October 1996, were
deemed admissible, the legal source said.
This is not the end of it, he said, stressing that Tuesday's ruling was preliminary.
Placer has estimated Las Cristinas' reserves at more than 20 million ounces. Crystallex, which
operates a small mine nearby, has said Cristinas could produce between 250,000 and 400,000
ounces of gold per year.
Venezuelan government officials have insisted throughout the dispute that Crystallex's claim is
unjustified and that the joint venture in which Placer has a 70 percent stake would go ahead.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 22:54
Bob M>(
Steve- its coming down the pipe...

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 22:53
Cmax @Venezuela>(@Venezuela):
Never trust Venezuelan goverment....they make the Indonesians look like amatuers when it comes to fleecing foreign investors. Having observed the ven court procedures during the last 11 years, I believe that KRY are way over their head, and the battle is only just BEGINNING. Remember that we were voted the second most corrupt country in the world two years in a row.....right after Nigeria. Believe nothing of what you hear, and less of what you read.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 22:50
macktruck @runoverbya>(@runoverbya):
itsy bitsy trader
I'm not trying to burst your bubble; all I'm saying is perhaps your celebration is a bit premature. I just took this off Reuters.

July 15, 1997

Rival lawyers claim victory with Cristinas

CARACAS, July 15 ( Reuter ) - Rival lawyers from Canadian mining companies Placer Dome Inc
and Crystallex International Corp both claimed victory Tuesday in the long-running dispute over the
gold-rich Las Cristinas concession in southeastern Venezuela.
Lawyers for both companies acknowledged that the a Supreme Court preliminary ruling on the
dispute Tuesday was confusing and complicated but disagreed over how it should be interpreted.
The Court accepted all our actions against the resolutions of the Energy and Mines Ministry in
1996 which affected our rights, Ricardo Cottin, an attorney for Crystallex in Caracas told Reuters
in a brief telephone interview.
Meanwhile Jose Antonio Pinedo, legal representative for Placer said the Court's ruling was clearly
in its favor.
Pinedo said that while the court recognized Crystallex's right to challenge the removal of copper
rights at the concession, an earlier removal of gold exploitation rights at the concession was ratified.
The court threw out this claim because the gold rights were revoked seven years ago, Pinedo
The complicated legal dispute initiated by Crystallex earlier this year centers on the rights to
concessions four and six of the lucrative Las Cristinas property.
Crystallex says that the rightful owner of the concessions is Inversora Mael, a company which
Crystallex bought last year.
An independent legal source consulted by Reuters said that while the Court's decision Tuesday
was a setback to Crystallex's claim, it was only a preliminary ruling and would inevitably be
This is not the end of it, he said.
Cottin said that 80 percent of Crystallex's claims had been accepted by the court and the other 20
percent would be appealed.
Placer has estimated Las Cristinas' reserves at more than 20 million ounces. Crystallex, which
operates a small mine nearby, has said Cristinas could produce between 250,000 and 400,000
ounces of gold per year.
Venezuelan government officials have insisted throughout the dispute that Crystallex's claim is
unjustified and that the joint venture in which Placer has a 70 percent stake will go ahead.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 22:46
Steve Us selling its Gold Reserve>(Us selling its Gold Reserve):
Bob M where ddid you get your information regarding your last post ?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 22:45
Vieserre At the Currency Mart>(At the Currency Mart):
These currency developments would appear to bear watching. As you know, the devaluation of a currency by a country re the dollar causes an immediate increase in the price of gold and encourages inflation in that country. Further, in those Asian counties that were pegged to the dollar, after being free, their currencies compete with one another and each country has an incentive to lower its currency to protect exports and be a leading exporter. This of course is deflationary for the importing global community as imports become cheaper but inflationary for the devaluating country. I wonder how this is going to play out. Will gold become more sought after in the devaluating countries? And if so what is the impact? Will citizens of neighboring countries seek gold in view of the consequence to their neighbors? Will lower priced imports cause a greater trade surplus in the US and what is the impact?

Secondly, in Asia, since a devaluation of a currency of ie Thailand means a stronger Yen, it harms the Japanese economy as exports to the country are threatened with a higher price. Thus the devaluation encourages Japan, as it has recently publicly announced, to keep its interest rates at its present level to prevent the Yen from unduly rising. But it is limited in protecting against a rise in the Yen, since it cannot lower interest rates as they are already at a rock bottom. In addition, since Japan is a leading creditor to these devaluating countries, any problems there, including a devaluation of the currency, may cause problems to an already fragile Japanese banking system.

And as these countries devalue their currency, financial investors will be encouraged to move money from these countries into the USA, which may affect the value of the dollar and bond rates.

Thus Japan is confronted with at least two fronts in maintaining a stable low Yen: the USA and Asian counterparts. It seems to me it may be compelled to sell US bonds if the Yen becomes too strong Vis a Vie the dollar as it may not have any alternative. But whether that will have the intended affect on the dollar is another question.

This business of a currency devaluation is suddenly coming in from all over. - Asia, Australia and now Brazil. And if these and other countries start competing to be the lowest cost exporter by use of their currencies, it may have profound consequences on the stability of the global financial system. .And perhaps gold. After all, if a country devalues its currency, its currency reserves are devalued as well - that is except for gold which becomes more valuable. Critisim Welcomed.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 22:43
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 22:42
Bob M>(
The knockout punch for gold is coming soon in the form of the US government selling a considerable portion of their gold holdings. After the dust settles..BUY,BUY,BUY..the bottom will be had...

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 22:40
Leaner mooneyhadkrypeggedlastyear>(mooneyhadkrypeggedlastyear):
Mooney was asking questions about this company last year at about this point in time, I had ran into a director of this company in 1993 on Vancouver Island. He spoke of a huge consession it held in a South American country, but they were in discussion of legal ownership of the property. Well just like it says in the Ven article they pulled the rug out from under Placer Dome on this one. Good going isty bitsy and Mooney
I hope you rode this position out, long time coming but she'll move
when the TSE lifts the halt on KRY tommorrow. 20 mil. ozs.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 22:37
RJ Not just yet.....>(Not just yet.....):
D.A. - Regarding your comp check: you might want to wait a bit before buying some metals for delivery. There will be ample oportunity at lower prices.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 22:31
RJ What’s in a number?>(What’s in a number?):
All - I see a lot of talk about $275 or $250 today. Some see this as impossible, some see it as unlikely, some see it as possible, and others see these levels as inevitable. I’m somewhere between possible and inevitable. Some questions have been raised about these levels and why should the decline stop there? I think we all - in this I am also guilty - use the numbers as if they actually meant something. Instead, look to these benchmark numbers not as absolutes, but just one way to gauge the market. These prices represent psychological barriers that, once breached, could lead to further losses. In fact, none of these levels represent much beyond this. $299 gold is worth exactly one dollar less than $300 gold, yet would any financial publication let this pass unmentioned? No, this is the stuff of headlines. Likewise, the selling by CBs does not force the price of gold down, but simply undermines investor confidence in gold. Gold is worth less because less people want it now, that’s all. It is a commodity and, as such will rise and fall, this is what commodities do. Let’s not get to tangled up in various benchmarks but rather, the market as a whole. Stripped of emotion and viewed with rational eyes is the best way to protect and build your fortunes.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 22:21
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
Here is some more clarification on what the ruling was about ( on KRY ) :

CARACAS, VENEZUELA, July 15, 1997 -- Crystallex International Corporation
( KRY on TSE and AMEX ) announced that it received late today from the
Venezuelan Supreme Court notification that the Court has formally admitted
applications made by Crystallex's Venezuelan unit, Inversora Mael, C.A.
seeking enforcement of its ownership rights over the Las Cristinas 4 and 6
gold concessions.

The company stated that today's notice from the Court's Admission Judge:

1. Admits the majority of Mael's legal petitions for consideration by the full

2. Notes that because of timing issues related to statutes of limitations the
remaining two petitions could not be formally admitted today, but may be considered by
the full court as part of its review, and expressly establishing
that this does not prejudice the validity of Mael's rights.

3. Stipulates that today's actions FULLY RECOGNIZE Mael's underlying
rights to the concessions.

Oh by the way ( go try and find the articles by Bloomberg saying KRY lost tomorrow ) : )

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 22:18
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
To Big Mouth or Mack Truck .. whatever you name is. The ruling in VEN ( that halted KRY stocks ) ruled all motions in KRYs favor that the judge had authority on. The other items were outside of her jurisdiction. They will be taken up by the CSJ ( which by the way ruled in KRY favor in three previous rulings regarding the LC 4&6 properties ) . Again ... if you don't believe, you can always short KRY and go long on PDG. : )

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 22:06

Thanks for the heads up. I think that several thousand more ounces of silver will be leaving the warehouse shortly and I know just where its headed.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 22:04
Chief Gold Bull @little bears>(@little bears):

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 22:02
BJ @20:36: I think your comments regarding Selby and his opinions are both ungracious and unwarranted. We are not in contest here.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 22:02

If you truly believe that CB's are concerned with ROE then you ought to be scared ^* ( &^. The function of a central bank is too keep things smooth and not let imbalances in the system get out of hand. They are the last line of defense. Gold is held precisely because it is an asset which is uncorelated to the other financial stuff of which they are natural holders. As such it supplies some measure of insurance and adds to the balance in the system.

If the mandate of CB's is to maximize return on assets for their respective governments you can be sure that some will succeed and some will FAIL. Just like all the rest of the speculators in the world. If one of significance FAILS, the whole shooting match could come apart. If you've lurked this site for any period of time you'll know that I'm not one for predicting end of world, financial meltdown stuff. Lately however, I'm actually starting to believe that systemic risk is increasing and no one is doing a damn thing about it. Watching little countries like Albania sort of fall off the radar screen because of a Ponze scheme gone awry is a bit perturbing. That a few hedge funds can walk in and blow away the financial markets in a country like Thailand is more disconcerting. Now we see that Brazil is having a wee problem. The system is starting to spring leaks.

Tommorrow I receive my incentive comp bonus from our last quarter, which was very good. I'm actually contemplating going out and buying a substantial load of metal to stick in a bank vault. Thank you for your post. It has raised the antennae.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 22:01
Just in case anyone really cares - Comex gold stocks were down 32 oz today to 869,659 oz. eligible stocks were 348,055 oz . Open interest as of yesterday was 214,887 contracts, which means there is a solid 1.62 oz of gold to cover each 100 oz contract. Boy, that should make you feel secure if you are short at 319! In other words, this fall in gold prices has been accompanied by approximately 50,000 ounces actually sold short to cover the 'new' 60,000 contracts equal to 6 MILLION OUNCES. Oh, that must be reassuring!

Also of note ( Strad Master and D.A. pay attention ) Comex silver stocks have dropped about ten percent since the first of the year when the 'new' warehouse stocks appeared. This looks like a real drawdown to me and fortells an interesting future for silver!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:55
RJ Roebear>(Roebear):
Roebear @18:42 - Your response was that of a gentleman. I now understand the integrity question. There have been many who, at times, believed that I was someone else, or that someone else was me. I read Kitco daily and have never seen anyone misappropriate my name. Had I ever read an RJ post that I did not write, believe me, I would have been shouting from the rooftops. By the way, RJ is not an Internet handle. RJ is how I sign my checks, and is how I am known to my clients and friends. I wish I could say that the initials stand for a name that must be hidden at all costs, like Raul Jazz, or maybe Rainbow Jesus, but it is only Richard James.

As for the apparent schizophrenia, all different faces of the same man. I have never posted under another name and never will. This policy has the obvious consequence that I must take responsibility for all preambles and portends, as today I do. I read and post at Kitco with the full faith and understanding of the spirit to share and learn.

So, a rational response, this. So much for now, I feel a rabid spell coming on.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:52
panda @copper?>(@copper?):
Curious, Nippon raises its copper price effective immediately.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:52
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
To Mack Truck ( or is that Mack Mouth ) ... If you think you no what you talking about concerning KRY ( crystallex ) , then short it! Put your money where you mouth is!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:52
Goldbug23 @Armageddon>(@Armageddon):
WDL: Re you posts concerning Japan's comments regarding the military buildup in China. Isn't this just what we saw happen in Germany in the 30's? And yet there are those calling for even less defense expenditures in the U. S., when we are spending less percentagewise of GDP than we did in the late 30's.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:50
D.A.: You asked what my exit strategy is and my first impulse at this hour is to say a surge of adrenaline and a well broken-in pair of tennis shoes. Seriously, my mediocre thinking is to do what I did ( too slowly ) in 1995 when the tech sector soared, and that is sell out on the way down. I will be stopped out well above my buy in point ( unless the whole thing just crashes in one hour ) . I lost some of my profit by staying too long in techs then, but I've just plain lost waiting for the great gold bull market of 1997 to materialize. Your argument about value has been true for a couple of years hasn't it? Look at values since Greenspan's December irrational exuberance speech. You are correct by any traditional measurement, but look at the scoreboard. If you want to play you have to get in the game. I believe that by following the money, money can be made. The good trades that I have made have been from following, not predicting, sector trends, and from selling at a pre-determined limit above my buy-in ( except with gold where my heart ruled my head ) . Lastly, as the speculative fever increases, I am playing with less and moving more to cash.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:49
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
Byron: who do you think fed the first story to the media ( reuters and bloomberg ) .... PDG? As a KRY shareholder ... just a matter of time before I tell them ( PDG and the CVG {Corrupt Venzuala Gold Corporation ) to get off my property!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:48
Front @18:25: Your agreement with Selby is correct as far as it goes. It does however fail to recognize that the present situation would have been far more difficult and perhaps less profitable without the conivance of the Central Banks. Hedge funds would be unable to short to the degree they have without access to those above ground supplies. Not to mention the unrelenting pyschological benefits that were supplied as well.

For speculative short sellers, it has truly been a no brainer. It should have been recognized by us goldbugs sooner. ...... But without the fine commentary and opinion here on Kitco, I would still be in the dark regarding such matters. ....... So soon old. So late smart.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:45
panda @?>(@?):
I have seen this term so many times, speculative attacks , so could someone please define it for me?

If I buy a foreign stock, am I 'speculatively attacking' the U.S. Dollar?

What if I buy gold coin or bullion? Is this a 'speculative attack' on the U.S. Dollar?

Just what causes this 'speculative attack' anyhow? Is it like the common cold, when you're infected with a virus? In this case, no one wants to hold your inflated currency? Hmm. What a curious thing, this 'speculative attack' is.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:40
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Its easy to take a little flack when you're $80 bucks ahead of the game. I wonder what would be the reaction if I had predicted a $130 rise and the price was now $460 and rising? Happy that some agreed as well as disagreed and that in the end some on-topic discussion occurred today. Anyway I have said all I have to say and will follow Novice's lead.
Rhodium :

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:35
JohnB @Hoistupyoursails>(@Hoistupyoursails):
Selby and RJ and the other bears.
You must feel a little like Galileo or many other famous people who have preceeded you. Initially when they made their discoveries their ideas were rejected by the masses, some were even killed for their heretical opinions. Investing in gold was about the worst possible investment decision people could have made for the past 15 years or so and it sure looks like gold is going to go a lot lower, perhaps lower than $250, but certainly lower than $300 as the signs are there. The problem is there is a whole industry of analysts, newsletter writers, brokers, and dealers who earn their living hyping gold. This selloff has little to do with the sales of gold by the central banks. It is just that the central banks have finally woken up to the realization that many others have already made and that is your ROE is not high enough to keep much gold around. It is quite simple.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:21
WDL @earlier story>(@earlier story):
Earlier, I posted information on Japanese concerns over China. Here is the URL:

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:18
Bob @15:25: Absolutely goddam outstanding! Committed to print for further perusal, rumination and outrage. Mining company CEO's are playing the same ball-less game as their counterparts in general. All the while cashing in on the perquisites of position, while having the temerity to couch such self serving horsecrap as being in the best interests of shareholders.

If any of them should find something in their collective scrotums ( with appologies to Margaret Witte ) besides a vacuum; perhaps they would consider holding product from the market in search of better prices. If they did perhaps I would consider holding on to the remainder of my ABX. After all, only dyed in the wool goldbugs remain as shareholders anyway.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:11
Donald @Home>(@Home):
From Thailand: Baht Jitters
Pare Index

Business Day
Welcomes your opinions or

MARKET jitters over the
weakness of the local currency
plus tight liquidity drove the stock
market down to end off 2.65
percent in thin turnover yesterday,
brokers said.

Investors believe that the baht
isn't yet stable and will slip further
from today. They think it's risky
to hold baht at present, said a
broker at Securities One.

The composite SET index lost
16.64 points to 611.91 on 3.4
billion baht turnover.

The SET-50 index fell 1.60
points to 45.52.

The baht fell sharply to a new
record low of 30.80 per dollar
early yesterday on a spillover
effect of speculative attacks on
other regional currencies, dealers

The baht recovered ground in the
afternoon, to trade at around
29.85/30.00 in mid-afternoon in
the onshore market compared
with 30.30/30.75 in early

Bank of Thailand Governor
Rerngchai Marakanond told
reporters that the central bank
had intervened by selling dollars
to help stem the baht's fall against
the US dollar.

Apart from worries about the
baht and tight liquidity, brokers
said investors also preferred to
stay on the sidelines awaiting for
half-year earnings results of banks
and finance companies which are
scheduled to be released later this

Yesterday two banks including
Bank of Asia and Siam City Bank
announced their six-month
earnings results.

Bank of Asia said its unaudited
net profit during the period
amounted to 846.50 million baht
compared to 807.07 million. The
shares dropped one baht to
21.25 yesterday.

Siam City Bank said its unaudited
first half net profit stood at 1.82
billion baht versus an audited net
profit of 1.72 billion baht in the
same period of 1996.

Siam City Bank gained 0.25 baht
to 15.75.

Bangkok Bank topped the active
list, falling three baht to 159.
Nava Finance shed one to 17.75
and United Communication rose
seven to 110.

Brokers said they expected the
market to continue its downward
slide today morning but said it
would likely bounce back in the
afternoon as the market had fallen
quite sharply already.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:06
D.A. a.few.questions>(a.few.questions):

I am glad that you are profiting well from the great rebirth of the tech stocks. I am curious, do you have an exit strategy? What will inform you that it is no longer prudent to speculate in this area? I'm asking because I can't find any reason to own any stocks at these valuation levels and I'm wondering what other people who do own stocks see as both the rational for being in and the reason for exiting.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:06
WDL @gold price>(@gold price):
Bloomberg News has gold down $1.10

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:03
DJ Aftershock>(Aftershock):
Steve - Correction. According to Bart's wonderful 3-day chart, it was the Sidney market that took gold down. It has done this for three days straight, all in the hour before the Asian market opened. Haven't a clue why. Doesn't look like it is anything to get excited about these days.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:01
geff @14:57: Bulls only site Those unable to rationally counter the bearish argument are only fetching for a triumph of hope over reason. Selby and RJ are the most prominent bears at the moment and do us all a great service with their arguments. ..... D.A.'s counter, earlier today, was an excellent response to Selby's opinion. .....All of which requires a paraphrase. This, by way of Newton and Cherokee; if we are to see farther we must stand on the shoulders of giants. .... BTW, I wasn't disagreeing with your post. Merely using it as a vehicle for a short ..... something or other.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:00
Skylark @>(@):
Bill Buckler, Bob: Thanks for the response.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 21:00
Selby: Your apple market analogy was great! Word pictures are very effective teaching tools. Keep 'em coming. I remember your February posts and I remember wishing you were wrong...and you were/are right.

Panda: I love tech stocks! But how long can this go on?

Nomercy: Gold at $35? No U.S. citizen could purchase for that in 1971. As soon as it became legal to own, the price was nearly $200 as the Europeans sold it back to us. Selby is right when he says that gold has been a lousy investment for 17 years. I would much rather have had Microsoft or Intel shares. I believe this will change, but when? My heart is with the goldbugs, but my investment capital is dancing between electronics and energy services trying to make up for lost time enduring the bear market in gold. Why fast when you can feast?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 20:56
Steve Down Down Down >(Down Down Down ):
Gold Is Down $1.40 in Asian Trading. When will this maddness end if at all ? HELP !!!!!!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 20:43
GFD Shaken not Stirred>(Shaken not Stirred):
One last thought. If the CB's were going to remonetize gold as suggested by Oracle on gold eagle then it would be interesting to speculate what conditions they would choose for that operation. I think many of those are now in place. However, there has to be a compelling reason. That would be some form of currency instability. Particularly, currency instability that is percieved to be threatening these parabolic markets.

If we get major corrections in the markets and there is spin to the effect that this is due to currency problems then this would be the time to expect a remonetization move.

Many of the countries that have sold off postitions would benefit from a lower currency to enhance exports ( and jobs ) . They would want to avoid having a proportionately large position in gold that would result in an expensive currency. Sort of pre-emptive devaluation.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 20:43
Byron @ Update>(@ Update):
EBN indicates gold down $1.50 only.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 20:43
capnkev @shereallydiditthistime>(@shereallydiditthistime):
Well you KNOW the bottom has to be in or damn near it ( +-2.65 ) MY WIFE ASKED ME IF GOLD WILL EVER COME BACK AND SHE DONT KNOW SQUAT ABOUT MARKETS ( 'cept spending it on clothes & such ) , so I'm using it as my indicator in GOLD ( why not everything else failed! ) SSSSOOOOO I'm going to cal it the WIFE INDICATOR, time will tell

PS, hi ya EARL, SELBY, DA, CHEROKEE & ALL THE GANG ( soory cant name em all ) BART 'll get pissed

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 20:41
WDL @Asian developments>(@Asian developments):
Two interesting headlines ( stories ) out of Asia via the EBN Asian news
network: ( 1 ) Thailand May Need IMF Help & ( 2 ) Japan Defense Paper
Urges Watch on wonder the Japanese recanted on
Hashimoto's Columbia University gold statement...

The Japanese are also frightened of North Korea's nuclear capabilities
and desperation. Conclusion: Japan desperately needs U.S. military presence and good will and will do nothing to upset the apple cart.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 20:36
REB @12:25: If they were to sell all or most of their holdings, there would be a real possibility that gold could become a form of black market money that would be out of their control.

I agree with you completely. The only way that the CBs will be able to have their way with us is by maintaining absolute, iron clad, control over all potential rivals to fiat currencies. Gold most obvious. If all gold reserves are dissipated into the market, it would mean the bitter and final end for guvamint money as we have known it.

Any talk of selling off gold reserves in favor of interest bearing securities is just that. Talk. 'White Papers' in advocacy of such are merely for public consumption. ....... In the meantime, perception remains reality and the reality ain't comfortable. In the meantime.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 20:36
BJ all in the family>(all in the family):
Noticed that there was a little skirmish today. Its always good for the system. Selby, you've had the success of your former pronostications, but somehow as NOMERCY pointed out you don't seem to have very persuasive reasons to defend your 250.00 forecast, which sounds a bit farfetched. If it does you are the chosen guru for the group if it fails, Your promised silence, is welcomed.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 20:35
GFD Shaking The Tree>(Shaking The Tree):
There have been comments about the large miners getting together to squeeze the shorts. Likewise BT and his ilk. As I have posted before, rising gold is not necessarily in the interests of strong hands right now. ABX is good for a couple of years. It is to ABX's advantage to see gold blow out to 280 or 250 ( around cost of production ) for a while so that it can aquire good properties at cheap prices.

Likewise for BT. If he can drive down COMEX and buy quietly off market or in the LBMA, then he would be crazy not to.

As Bob ( ) points out it is in the interests of strong hands to shake the tree. Firstly, to reduce cost of aquisition. Secondly, and more importantly, to create the sell volume that they require to build their positions. Smart money gets rich like everyone else - buy low and sell high. If it takes a little manipulation to get there so be it.

However, at some point low gold will be a liability for CB's. When the markets turn down a lot of pundits will be citing deflation and particularly the excellent deflationary signals sent off by gold.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 20:33
vronsky Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL Part - IV (14 July 1997)>(Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL Part - IV (14 July 1997)):
Financial Fairy-tale or Expedient Global Monetary Necessity: Global Gold Standard?! STARTLING IMF data demonstrate its feasibility. BOJ’s T-Bond holdings is the keystone for success. EMU member participation essential.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 20:30
BillD Whatzup with gold>(Whatzup with gold):
Looks like gold is heading DOWN bigtime...whatzup

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 20:29
Byron @ ambivalence>(@ ambivalence):
Conflicting stories out on Crystallex. Now stating that Crystallex won!!!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 20:22
Silver Bob>(
Thankyou for responding. Will Silver Bob do?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 20:19
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
Just thought that a few would be interested in this article in the London Financial Times
Central bankers around the world are becoming nervous and their
concerns are not confined to the current financial turmoil in Asia. The
recent annual report from the Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) , the
central bankers' bank, worries that the frothiness of markets could have
systemic consequences. The state of the international payments and
settlements systems is a continuing focus of BIS concern.

These remarks came after Mr Alan Greenspan's comments about irrational
exuberance in markets. And they echoed earlier strictures from Mr Gerald
Corrigan, a former head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who
warned that the growing complexity and integration of financial flows
would make it much harder to manage shocks such as the 1987 stock
market crash.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 20:17
Bill Buckler @$A and RBA sale>(@$A and RBA sale):
Skylark ( July 15 19:14 ) I read Steve Kaplan's comments. The implication is that the $A fell as a direct result of the announcement of the RBA Gold sale. There is no doubt that the annoucement had an effect on the $A, but it has been falling since last December.

Here are some representative levels ( spot future basis )

12/2/96 0.8173
12/24/96 0.7987
4/11/97 0.7865
23/5/97 0.7688
6/13/97 0.7515
7/3/97 0.7531 ( day of RBA announcement )
7/8/97 0.7438
7/14/97 0.7387

There is no doubt that the $A slide has accelerated since the RBA announcement, but what has *really* been affected is the Aussie stock market. The All Ords hit an all time high of 2745 on July 2, the day before the RBA announcement. It closed on July 15 at 2637, after falling 62 points ( 2.3% ) over the past two days.

The fall in the $A is a direct result of the policies of the RBA. It has cut local rates to the point where Aussie official rates are the same as the Fed Funds rate - the first time this has happened since the Dollar was floated in 1983. On top of that, it has cut the PAR ( Prime Assets Requirement ) of commercial banks in half ( from 6.0% to 3.0% ) . And, of course, there is the Gold sale, designed to top up the government's coffers by remitting interest earned on the newly acquired bonds.

Unemployment is driving both government and RBA policy in Australia. There is almost unanimous agreement amongst both bankers and currency traders that the RBA will cut rates again - either at their next meeting in the first week of August or before. This is the main impetus for the slide in the Aussie Dollar.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 20:08
Bob @...Bob [first post so please be kind]>(@...Bob [first post so please be kind]):
We have a basic rule on this list. Please don't use a name that someone on the list is already using. It gets confusing. Try to add a last initial to Bob but I think there are two more Bob somethings out there.


Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 20:03
Bob guess>( guess):
Skylark: My guess why few are studying the London physical market is because of its secretive nature and opposition to normal trading disclosures that are available from American regulated derivative markets.

Does anyone know if Daffy Duck has been terminated from the governorship of the Australian Bank ?


Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 19:57
vronsky THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)>(THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)):
“Why has the U.S. - fountainhead of antigold sentiment - NOT SOLD any of its gold while encouraging its allies to sell” - Cole’s Market Insights poignant question:

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 19:55
panda @>(@):
DJ - Here, Here!

The ultimate defeat, infighting! Those who said gold was going down were right. My congratulations to you who predicted this outcome. I sincerely hope that you profited. No sarcasm intended!

Now, when does the elevator stop? Surely, I hope it will not crash through the basement concrete slab! Currencies are moving! What is gold? A commodity or a currency? Is it both? CBs are not happy that their currencies are commodities! They did this themselves when they adopted the free floating monetary system. Markets are annoying things, aren't they! :- ) )

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 19:48
macktruck hitbya>(hitbya):
itsy bitsy trader
Have you counted your chickens too soon about Crystallex? Bloomberg is reporting that Placer Dome won the court decision and Placer's stock was up today. What is this vheadline news whose URL you posted earlier anyways?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 19:45
All [first post please be kind]
Lets say that the super rich or they are getting ready to take the great unwashed to the cleaners as in 1929. Wouldn't they want to hide their wealth in precious metals. Therefore they would be looking for any method to force the price of Gold and Silver as low as possible.

Disinformation, ridicule, outright lies, and manipulation of markets etc. would seem to be SOP. IMHO all of the above and much more is occuring on a daily basis and therfore should only encourage the rest of us who have every reason to believe that these things are happening to hold on and get ready for the disaster that will surely come! The longer it takes the deeper the fall in world markets. This fits the scenario of the one world government groups very well.


Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 19:44
panda @currency devaluations here, there, and everywhere!>(@currency devaluations here, there, and everywhere!):
Boy, this contagion stuff is everywhere!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 19:43
Donald @Home>(@Home):
EBN has Australian Dollar at .7323. They probably sold their gold to weaken the A$. Let the market do your devaluation for you so that you are not embarassed by it.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 19:42
DJ The Unusual Suspect>(The Unusual Suspect):
Do I detect a little stress among the Kitco-ites today? Could those debating Selby be a little envious that he still has his cash intact? Personally I admire Selby - a conservative investor, with the courage of his convictions, waiting for signs that things are turning around. I wish I had better insight. Not wanting to get left waiting at the station, I started making some selective purchases of S. African stocks a couple of months ago and have watched them lose 30% of their value. Also invested in some Rydex Ursa, too early, and have watched that decline significantly. Fortunately, I still have some dry powder left, but my trigger finger is getting itchy again.

I have learned a lot from Kitco, in the last few months, and I think I am making better decisions. My thanks to all of you for taking the time to present your logic and pass on your advice!

Speaking of my trigger finger getting itchy, have you noticed that Durban Deep ( DRORY ) has dropped 70% in just 4 months - from 9 to 2 5/8? Unbelievable? Most of the other S. African stocks have been creamed as well - much more than the N.A. companies. Fortunately, the Blyvoor, which I bought before the lastest crash in the gold price, has held up. Perhaps this is an indicator that the S.African stocks are reaching the point that they cannot be driven lower ( unless they close ) .

Looking for another possible suspect who might be driving the price of gold down? Consider this. S. Africa mines the most gold and would like to control costs ( easy John D. - just trying to make a point - which you made yourself not long ago if memory serves ) . Do you think the S.African mining establishment might have a hand in putting pressure on the price of gold, to the point that several mines are on the verge of closing? Seems that this would give them a VERY strong hand in the labor negotiations. If so, now that these discussions are completed, perhaps the price of gold ( and the price of these stocks ) will mysteriously go back up. Lord I hope so!

P.S. I don't favor betting among Kitco participants. We are all betting our respective fortunes with the decisions we make everyday. We don't have to take money from each other. It will be clear who is right and who is wrong. Betting tends to make people take sides and puts us in the role of antagonists. We all lose if betting results in resentment and hard feelings, and leads to reluctance of people to share their views with us. I treasure this free flowing, open forum.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 19:39
panda @Russian in-fighting over PGMs?>(@Russian in-fighting over PGMs?):
And whom do you believe?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 19:35
Novice @deja vu all over again>(@deja vu all over again):
Selby: This is all quite reminiscent of last autumn when you were being excoriated here for your prophet-in-the-wilderness assessment that the gold price was going to decline rather than skyrocket. Well, the charts I looked at today bear testament to the fact that you were RIGHT. It ain't A popular viewpoint but we all know where we are in this $#@&!! market.

By the way, I also checked Bart's rhodium chart today... I am indeed a novice...anyone care to present a dissertation here on rhodium, its history, uses, producers, and possible use as an investment vehicle? Thanks in advance, and I'm back to attending Kitcos Anonymous...trying to get a grip on my habit...

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 19:34
panda @>(@):
Bill Buckler -- Anecdotal evidence? Coin sales are UP!?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 19:32
JIN INDIA.................>(INDIA.................):
Somethings to bull side,
happy trading.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 19:30
panda @>(@):
Crystal Ball -- Thanks, I asked a few people at work about that tune, everyone knew it but.... Then I went searching on the Web! Finally, a co-worker said REM.

Hell of a rally in the tech stocks. It caught more than a few at work by surprise when the company stock went up about 10% today. I guess I'm a broken clock. This market ( in techs anyhow ) has a blow-off feel to it. Doesn't mean that they can't go much higher.... I just have that funny feeling. Then again, I am holding gold stocks and dead HUI options... What do I know?

I have one question for the option pro's out there, when will public companies be required to disclose the true cost of the stock options granted to employees? ( In other words, KEY people {upper brass} ) I understand that Netscape would still be showing a loss from day one until now if the disclosure were required. I wonder what that would do to the stock price? Then again, there is

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 19:23
NWO Don't worry Donald>(Don't worry Donald):

Donald: ( Brazil ) We will muster The World Bank, Mr. Yen and and Bob Rubin to slove this problem promptly.
Hell, we can open a more plants there in our quest to control the world economies.
After we close their gold mines down, we will reactivate them under our ownership and use our motto of One Big Happy NWO. Hell we will have all the property and all the gold.
I am so happy that I can S__t. Even forgive the Butcher of Bagdad.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 19:14
Skylark @>(@):
Bill Buckler: Steve Kaplan of the Gold Mining Outlook reports that since the gold sale, the Australian dollar has collapsed to a 1-1/2-year low. bond yields have soared, and real estate values are collapsing. And he reasons that this is due to the gold sale. Your views on this would be appreciated.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 19:08
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Prices on Rio de Janeiro Stock Exchange fall 8.57%

RIO DE JANEIRO, 07/15/97 - For the third consecutive trading session, the national stock
markets have registered losses. The Rio de Janeiro Stock Exchange ( BVRJ ) fell by 3.5% yesterday
and the National Trading System ( SENN ) dropped 4.3%. The BVRJ's blue-chip shares plummeted,
resulting in an accumulated loss on the exchange of 8.57% over the last three days. Total trading
volume was only R$ 16.36 million. ( ZH )

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 19:03
nomercy Lease Rates>(Lease Rates):
...according to Steven Kaplan, one month lease rates up to 2.35% while th implied one year rate is 2.16%...
its getting to be expensive to borrow and keep it pushing it further the plot thickens...the stakes are raised...turmoil and devaluations in currencies....another magic number to be tested by the Dow...which will take a few cracks to surpass and maintain...Greenspan to testify on July 23....

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 18:58
Donald @Home>(@Home):
PBS, Nightly Business Report, just reported rumor of a Brazilian currency devaluation.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 18:54
Crystal Ball ()>(()):
Panda- REM did Losing My Religion

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 18:49
I've got a good wager. It can be friendly and fun w/ NO macho-he-man-stuff. I plan to build a relatively large spread ( option ) position in either GCV7 or GCZ7. It will cost no more than an ounce of gold- $320 US ( commissions and all at $50.00 r/t ) . I plan to short the market and ( D.A. ) or anyone else can go long. At expiry we can see who has the $$ and who is, in fact, IMPECUNIOUS.

This is all in fun and no one gets understand?


AwAy eB

are ya' feelin' lucky punk... well are ya'?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 18:42
Roebear @HersheyPa>(@HersheyPa):
RJ In response to your 13:42. My post was designed to prod you a bit to see if the RJ handle was always RJ, in this perhaps I did too well. I will apologize for my excess zeal, although you have admitted to doing some proding of your own here in the past. Your response spoke volumes.
Talent in and of itself is nothing without integrity referred only directly to the identity of the RJ poster/imposter. That is, if there were another. Frankly, sometimes it seems there are two RJ's, one poetic, litereary and even handed, another a bit nasty at times.
Who am I? Well, I do not trade 100K's of others money. I am a small investor learning here and other places on the web. My accolades? Seven years in my own business from the age of 20 ( didn't go broke/didn't get rich ) . Never stole a penny off anyone. Then work for others, I currently work for a fortune 500 company.
When doing security work I helped police capture an axe murderer once, I staked him out and found him and blocked his escape. Didn't know he was an axe murderer at the time. Some other actually worse scrapes also. I have given a lot of first aid to people and resuscitated one woman with CPR ( very rare to actually have a resuscitation w/o paddles ) . No one ever thanked me and that doesn't bother me. Besides a great wife and kids, that's my claim to fame. So is that enough info? So we square or what?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 18:39
Skylark @>(@):
DA Thanks for responding, you are right, it must be a bad read.

As to the LBMA, thank you for that explanation. One reason given for a CB to sell gold and buy a basket of currencies is that if it needs additional funds to support its currency, it is easier to sell another currency than gold without affecting the market. Yet, the LBMA states that the reason for the announcement of the volume traded in gold is to show how liquid the market is. And at 930 tons a day, such amounts as sold by Australia could seem easily absorbed without significantly affecting the market. I have read that the LBMA figures may be suspect, but I have not seen any rationale of the trading to my satisfaction. And if the market is so liquid, why do specs believe such CB selling will continue to reduce price unless a very large quantity of gold is expected to be sold? And at your figures, buyer's of gold trading on the LBMA could easily wipe out the specs in a day. And sophisticated funds should have a handle on this.

As to who is buying. I often consider this as once gold is sold, it cannot be resold by a seller. But if one analyzes the gold sales, there has not been that much gold reportedly sold by CB's on a net basis, and fabrication demand was exceptionally high during the first quarter. Perhaps this fabrication demand was adequate to absorb most of such sales. But it would appear that additional demand from private investors or unreported CB's would be necessary to have absorbed all of the short selling that has been and is still going on. But if so, where does that get us, as price continues to decline.

Finally, I have noted that during the decline in bullion the back months were usually just as weak as the front months but at least earlier in the day, the back months months were firmer, with a widening of the August/September spread. Whether this has any signficance remains to be seen. I have not checked the close.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 18:38
Jack Selby>(Selby):

Correct me if wrong._______I believe you feel that government and those who control them from behind the scenes; hold the upper hand and essentially can do what ever they want with the people and the markets? Most politicians say in power a reasonably long period, so some feel, it's best one wait for signs -like a real sustainable direction- to place ones bets. I think you are aware of the manipulat_ions ( ors ) and have decided to remain aloof from them?
I believe that there are many signs that point to higher prices for gold and silver. Just the supply and demand; heck with central bank sales or loans.
If a government would rather hold the paper of foreign powers in reserves; in place of gold with utter disregard for their people its smells like TREASON to me.
They hang spies who compromise the military security of a nation, how about the economic security?
That may sound hard, but what happens to the yen; if for some reason the dollar crashes. Such things have happened since the begining of governments. One can argue that such takes place over a long period of time, but we have a posterity to consider.
Last are mining costs.
Did you know that a department store with no expertise in producing what they sell and utilizing low paid workers take a 100+% markup, sure they have rent etc.,etc.
Most good miners after they add in front office, P&I, enviromental and other cost like depreciation and depletion, that sometimes they might not add into reported labor mining cost come up with prices in the range of $300+. Then there is always the danger or uncertainty element.
Considering demand and a fair profit for the gold mined
$600 gold is not out of hand; and the hell with those who think otherwise.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 18:29
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Japan Ex-Im Bank and IMF to cooperate on remedy for Asian Currency crisis.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 18:25
Front Picking sides....>(Picking sides....):

Well ain't this unusual, a food fight at Kitco again. Well at least this time everyone seems to be keeping their own handles! OK, enough of this sitting on the sidelines. If we're drawing the line in the sand, I'm with Selby. I don't think the central banks are the reason it's going down entirely. On a percentage basis, I'd say it's 75 to 25 in favour of the speculators. Sure the banks gain by keeping their king diguised but the speculators gain in a bigger fashion. We've been through it all before as to why. I've nothing to add except that I'm a firm believer in the theory of supply and demand. The problem is that the banks have made the weapon of supply too available to the henchmen shorts who will use the banks weapon to win the war. They will win, no doubt about it. It will change only when they grow tired of not making as much money as before, then they will change direction and we will all be standing around in bewilderment as they make money on a shortage they created. Personally, I wouldn't have believed it either except that when I was in business, I remember that Mr. Mulroney raised the manufacturers tax so many times as to become onerous and then went yelling from the rooftops that we had to have a GST tax to replace the BAD manufactures tax. That's the hidden motive theory of bigger forces. The banks have a hidden reason and that's to give their debts worthyness and keep a failed system going and the shorts are more than willing to help as long as they make a profit. It won't end until there are no more buyers for the sales of this gold. It's that simple. Supply and demand. So I guess that puts me in Selbys corner on this one. Do you really think that the Japan / USA / Australia gold intrigue was not planned behind closed doors to control the situation and debt worthyness through timely disinformation? It was one of the most slickest operations that's been put upon Gold in a while. BRAVO to MR. RUBEN! Nice move! Talk about control! Half of Kitco sees it as you, the other half says not! Now that's power! But the real power is in the hands of the speculators, not the banks. If the specs want it to go the other way, it will. As George Cole says, if it gets going even the banks won't be able to stop it! Selby, nice call !


Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 18:24

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 18:06
George Cole short squeeze>(short squeeze):

Where will the armies come from that will ultimately crush the gold shorts? I cannot give you their names ( although several possibilities do come to mind -- George Soros, The Bank of China, private Asian investors, the Bank of Japan, and the gold mining industry to name a few )

But the thrust of my argument is that the extraordinary short position in gold extant today AT VERY DEPRESSED PRICE LEVELS creates a truly staggering profit opportunity for any group with sufficient resources to blast the shorts out of the water. And if gold drops further in the face of additional big increases in the short position, the profit potential becomes even greater.

The magic of the marketplace will be quite sufficient to massacre the shorts. When and at what gold price I cannot say. But this massacre is coming as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 18:02
Tortfeasor Thoughts on this market>(Thoughts on this market):
This market the past few months reminds me greatly of a man who walked into a bar greatly aromic and when he entered everyone except the bartender vacated holding their nose. The bartender walked over to the man ( since he is on duty and couldn't leave with the other patrons and obviously had no one else to talk to ) and asked his name and asked what he did for a living that rendered him so fragrant. The stinky customer stated that he worked at the circus and walked behind the elephant catching its droppings from time to time. He admitted that occasionally the elephant droppings were difficult to catch and sometimes sparayed on him. The bartender scratched his chin perplexed by this man and why he would work at this type of job. Finally he asked the unfortunate customer why he didn't give up the job and work at something not quite so disgusting. The customer sat up straight and in an incensed voice answered And give up show business?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 17:46
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Nomercy: On the table is where it will stay. I believe I presentd a working successful perspective on the gold that seems to do the trick for me and I summarized it at your request. For this I receive absurd nonsensical and pulled form a hat. Not really the sort of thing serene discussion is made from. Anyway good luck with your investing approach.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 17:44
George Cole SA golds>(SA golds):
SA mines cutting costs, These will far outperform the North Americans when the next gold bull begins

By Melanie Cheary JOHANNESBURG, July 14 ( Reuter ) - South Africa's gold mining
industry and the National Union of Mineworkers on Monday unveiled a
productivity-linked wage deal which could save thousands of jobs threatened by a
meltdown in the gold price.

The framework deal is the first of its kind, offering miners substantial wage increases in
exchange for a quantum leap in productivity designed to lift national gold output by
nearly 20 percent.

The deal offers a two-year package of annual wage increases of between nine and 25
percent, providing agreement is reached at individual mine and company level to
increase 1997 gold production by 90 tonnes from the 495 tonnes produced last year.

An accord of this nature is likely to protect employment rather than jeopardise it. But
we can't give employment guarantees, said Adrian Du Plessis, industrial relations
adviser to the Chamber of Mines employer body.

The South African gold industry has long called for improvements in productivity to
offset rising costs at its deep, labour-intensive mines which have hampered its ability to
compete with cheaper open-cast operations elsewhere in the world.

( The weak gold price ) has added a great urgency and imperative to reaching a robust
wage and productivity agreement.

This is an accord which links wages, production and productivity, said Chamber
president Nick Segal.

Segal said employers believed there was great scope to increase productivity in the

Thousands of miners, in an already pressed industry with declining production, are
threatened with job cuts after the recent slide in the bullion price to 12-year lows.

Gold mine jobs have already been cut back from around 530,000 in 1987 to around
350,000 in 1996.

This accord allows us to save jobs and lay a foundation for substantial growth in the
industry. ( This accord ) lays down the first lesson for us in how to deal with major
setbacks in the industry without panicking, without alarm at possible job losses, said
the NUM's general secretary Kgalema Motlanthe.

The deal is subject to negotiation and approval at mine and company level between
management and union representatives. The aim is to commence these mine level talks
immediately and the Chamber said agreement could be reached within weeks.

A two-year agreement will hopefully eliminate the annual wage struggle that has long
been a feature of the industry and has often led to disputes and strikes, the Chamber

The settlement seeks to take the wage conflict out of the mining industry and lays a
platform for a better partnership ( between workers and management ) , Du Plessis

The proposed 90-tonne output increase was calculated by accumulating individual
producers' target output increases.

Agreement on this production will trigger the implementation of the wage increases.
These are significant wage increases tied to substantial productivity improvement and
reflects the joint commitment of both parties, Du Plessis said.

The Chamber said it was negotiating the same deal with other smaller unions and these
talks were at an advanced stage.

The wage increases will be backdated to July 1.

10:18 07-14-97

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 17:40
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Este: Thanks I'll try to hold my sarcasim in check in the future. I think I have said all I know today anyway so maybe I'll get better with time and in silence.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 17:37
nomercy selby>(selby):
...I issued the challenge which is still on the table...for you to put up or shut up...your $250 prediction is unbased and nonsensical...and I wanted and want to prove a point...
...there are quite a few intelligent analysts in this site which I think, we all enjoy and learn from...and provide a sound, logical approach to their conclusion...and we're all the wiser because of it...Kitco provides a better forum than a University course...
...some garbage needs to be filtered out from time time...and allow these experts to continue and enlighten a serene mode...

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 17:35
Este To Selby 15:59>(To Selby 15:59):
You are showing a bit of frustration in your recent post. Nobody uses name calling here unless seriously provoked. If I may say so, you have a tendency to resort to sarcasm to win your point and this attitude won't make you popular in many discussion groups. For instance, you are scornful of people who hold the opinion that Cbs are involved in gold market manipulation because you believe that only unfettered market forces are responsible for the direction of the price of gold. Yet, you cannot produce any evidence of your theory anymore than the others can, but you feel entitled to pass judgement on them.
In other instances your attitude is different and I enjoy your pragmatic view of the world.
I, for one, am not a gold bug but visit this site regularly because there is much to be learned here
including the reference to very useful resources ( some of them produced by you ) .
Gold has also made little money for me over the years and is only 2% of my portfolio at the present time.
Now I am going to retreat to my bomb shelter awaiting your reply.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 17:16
D.A. oops>(oops):

Talking about making no sense. Ignore the last 2 paragraphs of the last post. They were supposed to have gone to editing heaven but snuck back in.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 17:10

I'm not sure if you got the quote right because it makes no sense. High lease rates only encourage lending unless they are high enough to put the commodity in backwardation, where natural holders of inventory sell now and buy back later at a profit. I do not know how the CB's approach leasing, but assume that they have some fixed amount which they are allowed to loan under some set of rules either from their respective governments or themselves. Perhaps higher lease rates will encourage them to make more gold available for loan but I fail to see how it can encourage them to sell outright since all they will get is the spot market cash rate irrespective of lease rates. It is in the realm of possibility that their lending limits have been reached. If their supply for lending purposes was infinite then lease rates would be capped by some arbitrary price at which they would always happily loan their metal. Since we have historically seen spikes in rates one must assume that there is some limit to the amount of material available for loan. The rising lease rates that we are now seeing are probably indicitive of gigantic short speculative positions. These folks must borrow the physical metal to sell short into the market so there is a great demand for physical stuff to keep the game alive. To me the big intrigue is who are the ones on the other side of the trade.

With regards to the volumes of the LBMA it is unknown how much of this clearing is position squaring within the membership and how much is pure customer flow. Assuming it is all customer flow I'll try to make some guess as to the amount of speculative money needed to generate this kind of flow. In our currency fund we generate approximately the dollar value of our fund in trading everyday. Since our fund is set up to monitor lots of different cross rates we are more active than if were only trading a smaller number of currencies. However, our round turns per million ( number of IMM equivalent contract traded per year per 1000000 under management ) is considerably less than average in the industry. We trade in 8 currencies including the dollar. Guessing that we are about half as active as the average fund, if we used gold as a currency, then the average fund might turn over 25% of its holdings every day ( 8 / 2 ) . The LBMA numbers would then imply about 40 billion dollars of speculative money actively trading the gold market. Or to put it in more current terms, 1 Gates.

An average commodity fund does something like 2000 round turns per year for each 1000000 under management. This would run about

In any event if you think of gold as a currency of sorts the volumes would be pretty insignificant compared to the flows in the other currencies. For example, we are pretty longterm traders with a return target of around 25% per year and still our currency leverage can get 10 to 1 in terms of the dollar value of the currencies that we are long and short at any moment. If we included gold in our system as another currency, we could easily have a single long or short position in gold equal to more than twice our assets under management. If we were high frequency traders as many others are,

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 17:07
Mills Lane Nevada>(Nevada):
Toronto must be a better fight town than Vagas. Watch your ears at all times.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 17:05
NJ Bets>(Bets):
Selby : Take up D.A.'s wager. Make some money and prove your point.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 17:04
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
geff: I hope your watching this. Here we have the mano a mano approach to finacial discussion complete with the site jester who has atleast temporarily put down his book of quotations.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 16:59
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
Jack ... congrats too? if my memory serves me correct. Maybe I'll buy some Maple Leafs with the profits ( after taxes and tithe ) if all goes as I think.

: )

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 16:47
Jack Congrats>(Congrats):

itsy bitsy trader: Congratulation, hope that Crystallex continues onward.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 16:44
nomercy mooney>(mooney):
...thanks for your offer and I'm game...we have to decide the amount and the time 10 to 1 stands...and say his $1k to my $10k and winner collect by Dec. 31/'97

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 16:41
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Nomercy: My bet is down and public. Has been for months. D.A. is the betting man around here try him.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 16:41
Donald @Work>(@Work):
SELBY: RE yours at 15:59: I am involved in gold because I expect that it will retain more purchasing power than the dollar from this point. If gold goes to $100 and houses go to $5000 who is going to complain? In that event you get a tax loss for your gold to boot! ( unless they change the rules ) I think the situation I just described would satisfy both the bulls and the bears, and I think it is a real possibility. The Dow/Gold ratio ended the day at 25.01. The July 8th high still holds.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 16:36
Mooney @Selby+nomercy>(@Selby+nomercy):
Selby, I'll be the witness since we're all in T.O. area, and besides we'll all get to have an afternoon of camraderie. I propose that the three of us go to a local bank, the bet is deposited into a joint account ( you two ) that no one can withdraw from without both signatures.
nomercy - Five to One is more than fair. ( Sorry Selby but referee's have to be fair ) .

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 16:29
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
Remember, my posts on KRY from about 2 weeks ago. To those who have and/or will be enjoying the ride, congrats! If you ignored my posts and were too busy listening BT, oh well ... life goes on.

See for more details.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 16:26
nomercy selby>(selby):
... your $250.... I'm willing to say give you 10 to 1 decide the amount...and I'm close by so we can do this face to face

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 16:23
Skylark Lease Rates>(Lease Rates):
A broker report stated with short term lending rates higher than longer term rates, further CB selling is likely Would anyone care to explain this. I believe the statment means more than just additional speculation at the shorter end.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 16:23

Selby - This site benefits greatly from your unbiased contributions.
Glad to see the discussion directed towards your points today.

Everybody - My name is John. Not that I care, since you are obviously
using my E-mail address as a disparaging term, but I think I should be
accorded the same respect as everyone else on this site, especially
since I post a real E-mail address and since I was a lot more correct
in my prediction than people who get deferred to as a matter of course
on this site. I guess I could start making fun of Aurophile ( his chosen
handle ) by calling him IBMer or making fun of Mooney ( his chosen
handle ) by calling him Iderector or something. It just shows who the
true childish people are on this site when you continue to refer to others
by their E-mail account. I would advise you to go over to the Gold Forum
on SI, read drytoast, and see what it will take to turn the gold price around. I hope you continue to scoff at what seem like ridiculous ( and ridiculously simple )
demands. Remember, it's only your money to lose. Maybe you don't
really want the gold price to turn around. Maybe this is as much a game to
you as it is to Cheri Que and RJ2/Paskapoo/Leaner.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 16:14
Mad Russian You look us now>(You look us now):

Ve Russians; vunce ve haf more gold dan US, you look us now.
Ven da Goverment pay us money ve buy gold.
Mafia have dollar, dey buy gold vit and caviar tins vit rest. Dey sell caviar for more dollar and buy gold vit.
Ve pissed off, vant Czar back; government pay us no money.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 16:06
Skylark The LBMA>(The LBMA):
BOB: Thanks for the comments, but the big boys are in the cat-bird seat with ABX and NEM having cash costs below 200 and PDG approaching that, they can wait to pick up the best of the high producers or Juniors and may have little incentive at this time to move gold higher. Also CEO's like to build their empire and now is an opportune time to do that.

The chief puzzle I have, and have not found any satisfactory answer, is who are the parties dealing in the LBMA Market. At 930 tons a day ( and up to 3 times that amount according to the report ) this is about twice the total of the estimated shorts outstanding. Therefore, it would not seem that difficult for those trading the London market to move the gold market higher, if that was an objective. The LBMA seems to be a market within a market, I am continuously puzzled as to why more attention is not directed to it by analysts and the media.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 15:59
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
geff: Re: Bear Bashing. I doubt that anyone goes looking for a place on the web where the main topic is the decline in gold's price. Most people get here I think because they are searching for information about when and where it is going--Up and soon --being the preferred message. So you have many who post here who think the gold price is totally controlled by CB's and that the battle is with them. Others are looking for confirmation of things their fathers told them or they learned in school--gold is a good store of value or there is going to be a major depression and gold is good to have then. Or that there is a civil breakdown over the horizon and gold should be stored away for it. Recently its been difficult to make money expecting it to go up. Some go away or become more adamant that gold is going up. If someone then says its going down first ---bashing is to expected. Usually the discussion is Ok until somebody finds their guiding priciple challenged and then they resort to name calling. Can't deal with the argument so they call the other side a couple of names and that's that. The value of engaging in the process is to see if your position can be successfully challenged. All you have to do is remember when they start avoiding your argument and call you names you have won the argument. What you win is another issue. This sort of thing is not restricted to Kitco. Extreme reactions on sites devoted to spefic gold mines are common place and people have been banned because they questioned the view of the believers.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 15:35
Bob rally>( rally):
Cherokee; We long investors will hope that gold rallys in the demise of the paper stk Bull but I won't be surprised that it only amounts to a short rally until the paper Bull once again rises - just like the good old days. Do you doubt that stocks have done better than most assets over the long-term ?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 15:35
D.A. : the great thing about golf is that you play against yourself everytime
out. It is the most honest game in the world, it is alot like gold.
I carry a low teens handicap in the summer and a high single digit in
the winter. I would most welcome any invitation to join any fellow
Kitconites on the links. I always post my email, anyone feel free
to drop me line if you are in town.

Panda: your post about big gun I found assuming. Without knowing it,
I think, you chose the handle of one of the world's top Satelite hacker
to describe the Japanese spokeman. Could the Japanese be fighting the
establishment?, just like big gun?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 15:25
Bob @...when Peter Munk finally agrees that his wealth is deflating and shareholders are not happy campers>(@...when Peter Munk finally agrees that his wealth is deflating and shareholders are not happy campers):
Skylark: I think the turnaround in gold will happen when the gold producers decide to counter-attack the shorts and spike the gold price north into a higher trading range - possibly back to $340- $350.

You see, things are really simple. The price of gold is a function of real fundamental + speculative demand and supply. Mr. Gold Market is controlled by the speculative shorts who are confident that CBs will back their profits with episodic gold sale dumps in the physical market that can be exploited for news content irrespective of absorption and price activity: psychology and the 'big scare' rules here.

Peter Munk is the CEO of ABX. He owns a nice chunk of ABX amoung other real assets. He is very rich. He also earns a multi-million dollar package each year as ABX CEO - come hell or high water.

Hell or High water is approaching. Peter, and other notable gold miners, will come to realize the folly of his mistakes.

Peter figures that the short-sighted greedy approach will prevail in the long-run. He figures ABX has big profits locked in by a 7.5 m.oz. hedge program until 2000+ and that he can ride out short-term the swings in gold price by looking for and picking up cheap gold properties.

Now this strategy at first blush looks mighty good. One big problem however. The fundamental trading range in gold is being decimated and it will take more and more financial will and determination to turn this Mother Bear around. The longer Peter and his colleasgues sit on the side-lines while the gold team is losing the more the score will drop to lower the playing range. The Team Gold cost to lift the market back will be that much more expensive and time-consuming irrespective of few short rallys.

Peter, as you may know, has expressed benign neglect and is not really bothered by flies like me since he is very rich and he probably is well-diversified in oil and real estate even if gold is destroyed. Peter is in his sixties. Why bother about the long-term when you have enough cashish and investments to live a bountiful remainder of your years and still leave a fortune to the kids ?

So who is the loser ? Long-term gold investors and shareholders ( we ) . Who wins ? Gold managment. How do they do it ? They steal shareholder wealth through strategies that protect their territorial imperatives ( poison pills ) and self-deal in bountiful corporate options issued at fire-sale strike prices at times like these ( I don't suggest Munk is taking additional options at low strikes but other gold managers have tried in this market. )

The best part about being a Gold Executive is that you get to increase management option benefit plans during bad times when the stock prices now.

Again, when do we get some relif ? When Peter Munk and his gold miner friends decide to blow-away the shorts to protect long-term industry interests instead of short-term private greed.

How do they do this ? Buy a few billion worth of long gold contracts to drive the shorts to cover and recover and recover to cycle their losses back into the paper price of gold as it spikes up to higher trading ranges.

Is there any of you out there who think that the shorts could not be defeated with an additional couple Billion worth of strategically bought long gold contracts rumoured from the Gold Industry ?

The Gold cartel could move the price of gold higher just as the shorts and their CB friends have knocked it down. The CBs would need to back-off as the politics would favour Gold Miners who employ and deploy real economic resources over the dead bodies of paper speculators who have no similar use or benefit to real economy - particularly in lesser developed mineral rich countries.


Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 15:17
cherokee @weather-watcher>(@weather-watcher):
who says gold will not rally when the paper-tiger
takes a powder? when this bull first ran into
resistance what did gold do? this was the day
there was a 180pt+ downdraft, before recovering
to continue its' current run up the mountain.

when the emotive forces ( panic ) kick into gear,
gold will soar like the initimable eagle on high.
there is no need for a consensus of opinion that
gold is a store of value. there is a psycho-somatic
connection, that is dominated by emotions. the emotive
forces of mob mentality will be un-controllable and as the
waves on a beach-----some regualrity, interspersed with plenty
of chaotic sworls and eddies. chaos and flux will rule, and there
will be plenty who rue that day.


thanks and keep it up!

the heat wave that has begun to engulf the mid-section of the
country has been expected and predicted. what is next? the
grain-train has blasted-off again. are you on-board? alice
is waiting for its' arrival. it's time to party--------

cherokee!; ) reaper-of-a-bitter-harvest

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 15:01
Jack Another one?>(Another one?):

My ( 03:26 ) should read Market Caps 100 times Sales. Speed ( 06:38 ) , that to, but with living prices the same and earnings at 1/4, its like inflation for them.______Just trying to hassle RJ.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 14:57
Mooney @D.A.andR.J>(@D.A.andR.J):
D.A.@12:29 - Try R.J!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 14:57
I am a little confused with the recent Bear Bashing Banter. Is this page the exclusive site for gold bulls only? Knowing ( or hoping to know ) when to go long a market and relying on that approach is like a baseball pitcher who can throw just one kind of pitch: You can win if you're really good, but even then, success in the long run is an outside chance at best.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 14:51
What Hope Is There?
The preponderance of media HYPE describes Inflation as nonexistent and therefore that Gold has no value.
It seems to me that Gold has more than one leg. With currency devaluations from the recent past ( Mexico ) , now South East Asia, followed by Brazil, Gold’s strongest leg, that of monetary
stability should manifest itself.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 14:45
Strad Master Frustration!>(Frustration!):
RJ! RJ! Why can't YOU be my broker? ( Life's a bitch and then you die! ) Sigh...

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 14:44
2%+ and growing monthly lease rate = $6.40 a month
got to cover some time

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 14:34
Byron @ Chartsville>(@ Chartsville):
To Chartists: Quite a discovery by Crystal Ball of the following site for charts. It includes you choice of indicators, timespan, fundamental data, etc. Really useful and I am still learning its potentials. the URL is listed on Barts Web Resources Links above but I will list it here again.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 14:31
MIKE SHELLER........Gold to a little over $100.00 has been Prechter's prediction for some time.....Based on E-wave theory...If you haven't read his book At the Crest you ought to.....It really is fun reading.....While I was reading it I said a thousand times I wish this book had been around and I had read it in 1980. Of course he also predicted the top for stocks several years ago.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 14:20
Donald @Work>(@Work):
SKYLARK: I do not think that the dollar is Strong. Rather, it is weak on its fundamentals. The reason for its apparent strength is demand by overextended debtors who need it to pay dollar denominated debts.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 14:14
Skylark What Hope is Left>(What Hope is Left):
Now that Japan is spoken in a more official tone that it is not interested in buying gold, and since this Asian hope is now gone from the Dines and Oracle reasons for gold to rise, what then is left as there is no significant inflation with the CBR off in price, there are no global wars, the dollar is strong, the stock market is robust, and bond yields steady. What reason is there then for shorts to cover and gold to rise. And if there is no reason, why should gold rise. Dine's last hope is that mines will close, but that means lower prices and a long dreary summer or more.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 14:13
Bob @...conspiracies and reality>(@...conspiracies and reality):
GFD: I enjoyed your recent post and its implication. Now only if everyone would cooperate we may see Lazarus walk again.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 14:09
Donald @Work>(@Work):
My, this heat has tempers flaring.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 14:06
GFD The Martian Wilderness>(The Martian Wilderness):
RJ: Do you have any thoughts, insights to share about the LBMA, the players, it's significance? Any insights on this enigma would be appreciated.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 14:02
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Nomercy: Couldn't follow your last post either. Since you can't understand mine I think we are even.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 13:59
GFD The Sun, The Moon and A Few Stars>(The Sun, The Moon and A Few Stars):
Just a random thought on Oracles latest missive ( ) . If the CB's were actively interested in persuing a more active role for gold in the world currencies they would likely camoflage their moves by a lot of negative press and possible market intervention. If this would help them screw their natural enemies the hedge funds in the process all the better.

I don't know what odds to put on this scenario ( more likely lower than higher ) but it is something that is compatible with what is now happening.

On a separate note, it is hard not to be unerved by those massive volumes on the LBMA. It is like reading that gold has spiked on large volumes in the martian exchanges and wondering what, if any, impact that development will have on the local exchanges... High weirdness.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 13:42
RJ Roe Who?>(Roe Who?):
Roebear - Found your 03:02 a bit confusing. What is this talk of integrity and how is that germane? Do you question my integrity to print exactly what I think,. or do you find duplicity? Comparisons to hep-cat are strained at best. Would it make you feel better to know that I back up my words here with hundreds of thousand of dollars every day? I trade this market and to risk repeating again, I don’t care where it goes, up or down, its all the same to me. There are others here who will constantly call today a bottom and predict the price will turn around soon, they continue to spew feel good platitudes about gold’s imminent recovery, in the face of a quite different reality. Any one following their advise would be sorry today. I offer no advise here, just my thoughts and views of this market. I have been making some spectacularly winning trades over the last few months. True, I am holing some silver and platinum at higher prices, but I haven’t given up on them. I wonder what you find here to question my integrity? There are some here with who I am in touch with outside this group. They know who I am. Who are You?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 13:19
GFD Rising Stars>(Rising Stars):
Westly: The reason the dow has been going up in the face of a slowing influx of cash into mutual funds is *redeployment*. That is, all the fund managers are focusing more and more on the S&P 100 stocks. Because of the popularity of index funds these stocks have been outperforming the market as a whole for some time. The other funds are also focusing on these stocks in order to compete so they are redeploying assets into this focused group.

In the 60's there emerged a select group of stocks called the nifty fifty which kept going up for the same reasons.

The dow or the s&p 100 is not the market and there has been quite a divergence between *average* stocks and this elite.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 13:16
Bob @...analogies of war and extraordinary events>(@...analogies of war and extraordinary events):
Korondy; I am sure that george Cole could answer your question but I think a simple answer is that gold investors need what the Italian people refer to as buona fortuna. This gold market needs a big event to turnaround. Lazarus will need to rise from the dead to get all the technical and fundamental indicators pointing the same way.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 13:09
nomercy selby>(selby):
... the US $ hasn't passed the test of no other power currency has in the've been around this site too long for to rehash what you've been reading and learning at this site...'re prediction of $250, and how you arrived at same, was of interest to me...and you admitted in earlier posting that you picked a number out of the hat...and perhaps thats a good way for you to decide your investments...if it works don't touch it! also said you were long cash, so you must have missed not only cashing in the fall of gold ( did you? ) or missed on the ascend of the Dow ( you must invest in indexes? ) ...or perhaps you cashed in on both positions...which its a great feat indeed..and you need to be congratulated for...'ve achieved what few have been able to do perhaps, that is to suck and blow at the same time... you are predicting $250 and are long cash. Interesting.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 13:08
vronsky THE DINES LETTER (July 14, 1997)>(THE DINES LETTER (July 14, 1997)):
Of Japan's $220 billion in foreign-currency reserves, 76% is now in US dollars. Nippon legislator says Japan’s gold reserves far too low. Dine’s ALL-GOLD REPORT has interesting insights:

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 13:03
Preacher Hallo>(Hallo):
Been away but glad I'm back. Some good discussion today ( D.A., Selby, GSCole, others ) .

Anyways, to lighten the mood here are some of the winners from the worst analogies ever written in a high school essay contest:

They lived in a typical suburban neighborhood with picket fences that resembled Nancy Kerrigan's teeth ( Paul Kocak, Syracuse, N.Y. )

He spoke with the wisdom that can only come from experience, like a guy who went blind because he looked at a solar eclipse without one of those boxes with a pinhole in it and now goes around the country speaking at high schools about the dangers of looking at a solar eclipse without one of those boxes with a pinhole in it. ( Joseph Romm, Washington )

She caught your eye like one of those pointy hook latches that used to dangle from screen doors and would fly up whenever you banged the door open again. ( Rich Murphy, Fairfax Station )

The little boat gently drifted across the pond exactly the way a bowling ball wouldn't. ( Russell Beland, Springfield )

McBride fell 12 stories, hitting the pavement like a Hefty Bag filled with vegetable soup. ( Paul Sabourin, Silver Spring )

From the attic came an unearthly howl. The whole scene had an eerie, surreal quality, like when you're on vacation in another city and Jeopardy comes on at 7 p.m. instead of 7:30. ( Roy Ashley, Washington )

Her hair glistened in the rain like nose hair after a sneeze. ( Chuck Smith, Woodbridge )

Her eyes were like two brown circles with big black dots in the center. ( Russell Beland, Springfield )

Bob was as perplexed as a hacker who means to access\aaakk/ch@ung but gets h:\flw.quidaaakk/ch@ung by mistake ( Ken Krattenmaker, Landover Hills )

He was as tall as a six-foot-three-inch tree. ( Jack Bross, Chevy Chase )

The hailstones leaped from the pavement, just like maggots when you fry them in hot grease. ( Gary F. Hevel, Silver Spring )

Her date was pleasant enough, but she knew that if her life was a movie, this guy would be buried in the credits as something like Second Tall Man. ( Russell Beland, Springfield )

Long separated by cruel fate, the star-crossed lovers raced across the grassy field toward each other like two freight trains, one having left Cleveland at 6:36 p.m. traveling at 55 mph, the other from Topeka at 4:19 p.m. at a speed of 35 mph. ( Jennifer Hart, Arlington )

The politician was gone but unnoticed, like the period after the Dr. on a Dr Pepper can. ( Wayne Goode, Madison, Ala. )

John and Mary had never met. They were like two hummingbirds who had also never met. ( Russell Beland, Springfield )

The thunder was ominous-sounding, much like the sound of a thin sheet of metal being shaken backstage during the storm scene in a play. ( Barbara
Fetherolf, Alexandria )

His thoughts tumbled in his head, making and breaking alliances like underpants in a dryer without Cling Free ( Chuck Smith, Woodbridge )

The red brick wall was the color of a brick-red Crayola crayon.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 13:00
Skylark In reply>(In reply):
DA Thanks. I believe that gold held by Private Investment is the margin and this will dictate price, not CB selling. CB selling was greater during the 93 rise than in any of the prior years when gold was going down. No amount of CB selling will stop a rise in gold if financial conditions warrant a higher price. I could not accept your bet as I have no idea which way this market will turn, but risk would seemingly favor the upside with short-covering demand and a market consensus of lower price.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 12:56
NJ gold >(gold ):
Selby : Here is an oppurtunity for you to win some serious money off D.A. Go Selby, show us the strength of your convictions.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 12:34
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Nomercy: couldn't follow your last post but if you want to see the value of gold as currency protection you will find a major discusion of the topic here about February. The conclusion was that $850 worth of gold bought at the peak is now worth about $320 and $850 worth of DOW bought at the same time is now worth over $3000. So much for currency prtection during the last 18 years. Of course the 850 figure bothers some people so use 500 and make the calculations. Gold has dropped about $100 in the 15 months or so. The DOW is almost straight up. As long as the 18 year decline carries on there really is no argument about currency protection.

That is it for today.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 12:29
D.A. re.investment>(re.investment):

I can not begin to guess what the net motivations for private hoarding are and what has happened to them as a result of the price decline we have had. Investment demand is a fickle thing, changing price affects trend followers one way and value players another. Small hoarders who hold metal as an insurance policy against political upheaval are unlikely to change their views based upon price unless the change is extreme in the up direction, to where dishoarding for gain would have a material effect upon their lives.

In price forcasting it is generally useful to pay attention to what is going on at the margin. The fact that the fundamentals of gold are radically different at 320 than at 380 should not be ignored. The longer we stay at these prices the more bullish things become. If we are going lower in meaningful way it will most likely occur sooner rather than later.

As an aside, I have been dangling a bet out there saying 360 before 300. I can't seem to get any action even though we are 40 dollars from my target vs 20 on the down side. I think that people recognize that each dollar down gets harder and harder. If someone wanted to bet even money 275 vs 365 I would be willing to wager a very large sum.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 12:25
REB na>(na):
Selby: Thanks for your comments earlier. My own thoughts are that gold will not exceed a trading range in the 300's unless there is a paradigm shift among average investors such as you describe. Gold could go into the 200's, but I think it's not likely. I do not believe that the CB community will divest all gold. The CB's want to retain the power to say what is money, and in order to do this they need to be able to control the price of gold. If they were to sell all or most of their holdings, there would be a real possibility that gold could become a form of black market money that would be out of their control.

I think the increasing lease rates are very important. This says to me that it is becoming more expensive to lease the stuff so that it can be sold in order to keep the price down or to cover short postions. More physical or future positions would have to be dumped on the market to get into the 200's and the rising lease rate is telling me that that may not be the path of least resistance from here. I am guessing there is going to be a short covering rally that will get us back into the mid 300's. After that.......

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 12:16
nomercy selby>(selby): is 'a paper currency risk protection' investment and should be measured has been such an investment for over 200 years as a currency...and withstood wars and all economic upheavels...
...paper hasn't...and thats why is so precious...unfortunately normal people haven't had the oppurtunity to purchase and to-day are still being its not a free market...thats why your $250 scenario is absurd..
...they can't free it and don't want to free their paper castle will fall...they try it to jawbone it down...but its to resilient...
..for my money if I've to accumulate wealth and pass it on from generation to is the best investment to secure it against currency it is transferable in any part of the world...cannot be reneged on like paper currency can...
...the two examples were just that...examples of opposites of your 'ill wishing' examples of your gold mine shutdowns which you're seeking this group...

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 12:05
Skylark Still Wondering>(Still Wondering):
DA Report out of London that Resistance is being tested by producers trying to find physical metal to purchase would seem to indicate that at least some producers are trying to find gold to cover their spot deferreds in the hope of higher prices. Or do you have another explanation?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 12:05
nailz EB.....and....JIN.....>(EB.....and....JIN.....):
EB....By buying certain numismatic items that have a small premium over gold and silver value, you may have more than one way to profit....1 ) Metals rise....and 2 ) Increase in numismatic value.....Now to do that you also take a lot of risks.A ) Dealer charges too much premium....B ) Dealer sells you crapola.....C ) Do you have a market to dispose of purchases when the time is right ?.....AND some more problems.....I will be happy to discuss advantages and disadvantages with you......JIN...Keep on posting and don't worry about your English....We get the idea and a view from the other side of the world can be most helpful to us all.....If you wish to e-mail your posts to have someone proof them before you publicly post them, I am sure we can arrange volunteers..... ALL...Happy trading....There will be a lot of money made and lost in these next market moves in the metals....May the trading gods be with you......

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 11:55
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Nomercy: I said gold was the worst investment not my worst investment. I thought Repap was a forestry stock.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 11:48
Skylark Wondering>(Wondering):
DA In your analysis, you consider CB selling, producer supply, scrap and fabrication demand. What about that portion of the 70 to 75% of gold held in private hands that is held for investment. A considerable quantity of private holding must be in such investment hands, unless the 930 tons and more traded per day in the LBMA is attributed only to bullion banks and the jewelry trade. what significance do you attribute to this private investment, is it to be ignored as you imply? Also do you know who the participants are that normally trade the LBMA exchange?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 11:46
nomercy selby>(selby):
...its interesting that the market has absorbed close to 1000 tons of western CB's sales in the last year...and an enormous amount of current 'short hedge positions' and still only lost 20-25% value. It appears to me that there is enormous demand for gold at bargain prices.... keep on mentioning $850 and not $35 in 1971...
...if gold is your worst investment...what is your best?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 11:37
nomercy selby>(selby): was meant for you...overzealous to inform you of shutdowns

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 11:33
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Nomercy; D.A. Nomercy: I think we agree on the value of a 275 figure to the gold market but get there in different ways. During my adult lifetime gold has been the worst investment I am aware of and the store of value argument has without value during the same time. Perhaps because I was surrounded by people buying gold over 800 and even 1 pleading with his wife to buy the day it hit the 850 mark I'm not inclined to dismiss the peak as a simple aberation. Either way the trend can not not be dismissed over a 18 year period. My understanding is that unemployment is down in the industialized world -even in Canada. I understand that deficts are down in many countries in Europe and certainly here. So I see gold being out of favour because people in the industrialized countries are not interested in it and don't buy the gloom and doom scenario that is so popular here and elsewhere.

D.A. You might be right and I may be overly enthusiastic given a correct call 8 months ago. We should see soon.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 11:31
nomercy TSE>(TSE):
...did you play Repap or Tee-Com by any chance on the TSE?..because I think their mines got shot down!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 11:28
Donald @Work>(@Work):
Did anyone notice that when silver and gold started heading North a bit ago that copper reversed and started heading South? Was there some news?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 11:26
Steve - Perth>(
Wary investors head for the door

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 11:20
panda @That's what you get for clearing the cache>(@That's what you get for clearing the cache):
I hate doing reposts from old data, ( the repost ) .

Kloof mines is reported to be closing one of their mines, possibly more if the price of gold continues its present direction....

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 11:16
panda @>(@):
D.A. -- I noticed, but I couldn't think of the rock group that did the tune, Losing my religion. It a while surfing the web.....

( Just kidding folks, goldbugitis is terminal! )

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 11:15
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Larryn: A Northern Miner article in last weeks edition listed the names of several SA mines that had closed and a few N American mines as well. I think I posted the URL here on the weekend. So far TVX has closed a mine in Quebec and several others have been mentioned as loosing money. It is a very difficult thing for the amatuer like me to figure out before hand so getting the information after the doors are closed seems the best I can expect.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 11:12
D.A. fundamentals>(fundamentals):

I don't think that looking for the average cost of production will lead you to the bottom for gold. At the moment, new mine supply, plus scrap is well below current consumption. The difference is being made up through CB sales. It is well known that CB's have more than enough ammo to fill the gap for many years to come. The question is will they. At current gold prices, and this is much different from 380, there will be little or no forward selling from mines because there are no real profits to be locked in except for the cheapest of producers. I have not attempted to quantify what this price drop has done to the supply demand situation but here are a few wild guesses. Going into the year, the deficit was estimated at something around 500 tons. Taking a wild quess and saying that supply will decline 5% and demand will rise 5% given the change in price and we add around another 300 tons to the deficit. This is twice as much gold as Australia has sold so it is a significant amount. The big change in the fundamentals may come from the mine hedging programs. If one made the wild guess that 30% of production over the next year was hedged, then the lack of new hedging would result in a decrease of new supply on the order of 1000 tons. Thus our 500 ton a year deficit may be ballooning into an 1800 ton a year deficit at these prices. This is the headwind that the specs and the CB's must fight. Unless you get some of the big CB holders to begin dumping ( US, Germany, France, Italy, Switzerland ) the rest of the gang is going to have to blow it all out to keep the party going.

The lease rates in gold are very telling at these prices. Normally one can not distinguish between spec borrowing to finance short sales and mine borrowing to do the same. The big difference between the two groups is that the specs can be forced into covering while the miners can not. They have the option of delivering newly mined gold to cover their shorts. At these prices it is pretty clear that we will get very little if any forward selling from the mines so the lease rates are due entirely to specs having to borrow metal to fund their shorts. I think that we are setting up for a big fast spike to the upside. With all the call options outstanding at higher prices the move could be breath-taking if it gets under way. Ah -- now I'm talking like a gold bug!!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 11:11
nomercy selby>(selby):
...interesting 'how trend' periods are picked at random peak...and compared to cyclical to my understanding is the neutral currency...and is the only have remained strong through history...more than I can say for any paper currency....Gold true value is not reflected as we do not have a true market since its being politically controlled...a great inordinate amount of propoganda and market conditioning is being spent to spread the doctrine that gold is a useless investment. Why?
...funds and traders create panics to advantage themselves...and discourage holders to sell and refrain buyers to to buy...they constantly barrage the negative...scare tactics....
CB's try and maintain stable economies avoid and post-pone the inevitable bubble happened before it'll happen again...the world population is growing and aging...western world finances are in a mess with massive debts...and unfunded pension liabilities...unemployment is increasing...former USSR is in a mess...statistics are being manipulated by politicians with short-term goals at the expense of the future...
...the CB's are the largest hoarders of gold...and with all their nonsense, still have the same inventory...they try to discourage gold buying as their 'pyramid paper scheme' requires constant cash inflows...
I don't believe that they would risk any major anomalies in the gold industry...its the funds that advantage themselves of political and currencies crisis...
...I would welcome a shakeout of I believe that my gold investments would go up 10 folds if it happens...
...your $250 scenario would probably be the greatest thing for gold....Your initial call of 15-20% cyclical correction is normal in any commodity or currency...and thus your initial prediction was not unreasonable...
...I believe that we are at bottom or very close to it...and we'll rally from there...

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 11:07
Steve - Perth>(
Barrick Group rumoured to be taking over Australian Gold Mining company, Great Central Gold ( Joe Gutnick's outfit ) . Any Jews in Barrick?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 11:06
The Honorable Senator Blutarsky Retired. U.S. Senate >(Retired. U.S. Senate ):

Good morning everybody. Thought for the day-- NOTHING is over until WE say it is.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 11:04
korondy Pls@Reply.Here>(Pls@Reply.Here):
George S. Cole ( 07:45 ) -- I liked your historical analogy. The same thing happened to B. Napoleon when he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory on the battlefields of Borodino ( just W. of Moscow ) at the hands of Marshall Kutuzov and the harsh Russian winter.

Here is the question: do the gold bugs/bulls have an army to field? I was just thinking how to explain to my ( as yet unborn ) grandchildren my lack of participation in the bull market of the century, and how I was invested in gold and gold mining shares during the final years of the raging paper bull... Where do we get the weapons and ammunition to mount a credible attack against the infidels intent on debasing the noble metal? Or do we just sit back and prey for a harsh winter of unparalleled discontent? ( I think it is coming anyway. The signs are everywhere: Russia, Thailand, Korea, LA longshoremen to name a few. )

Please keep posting, I like the way you think.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 10:56
MoreGold @Mine closings>(@Mine closings):
Larryn: So far 1 large mine S.A. has announced its closing later this year ( didn't note the name ) and Royal Oak is also shutting one of its mines in Canada, directly citing the low price of Gold as the reason.
I will try to keep a list of closings as I see them announced.
Little doubt to me there will be more to come.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 10:52
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
MoreGold: Long cash.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 10:48
MoreGold @Selby>(@Selby):
Selby, you must be short Gold ?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 10:46
MoreGold @Monitor>(@Monitor):
More evidence of record shorting of Gold.

Tuesday July 15 10:10 AM EDT
NY precious metals mixed early, heavy gold lending

NEW YORK, July 15 ( Reuter ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures were mixed in quiet trade early
Tuesday, with gold lending to hedge funds and producers continuing to fuel the downtrend, but the platinum group metals
( PGM ) physical market remained highly backwardated, despite reports the Russians were resuming sales into the spot

``There's not much going on on the COMEX floor, but it looks like there's been some producer and fabricator offtake
which has provided some cushion, though its not giving gold a bounce yet,'' North American Equity Services floor trade,
John Geraghty said.

COMEX August gold was down $1.10 at $319.70 an ounce after the first hour of trade, with the August/September
spread narrowing to $3.20 an ounce from $3.40 Monday.

In the bullion market, spot gold was quoted $318.80/30, compared to the London Tuesday morning fix at $319.00 and
the New York close Monday around $319.70/10.

But the implied gold lease rate curve became inverted Tuesday, with one month rates, at 2.35 percent, now higher than 12
month rates at 2.16 percent.

``The lease rates just reflect the extent of borrowing by hedge funds and producers to fund short positions and forward
sales,'' one senior New York bullion banker said.

``The problem is the higher rates are attracting even more lending by central banks,'' he said.

Gold fixed at a 12 year low last week at $315.75 in London, after news of a sale of 167 tonnes of gold by the Reserve
Bank of Australia, which encouraged more short selling by hedge funds.

COMEX gold open interest, at 214,421 contracts Monday, is at its highest levels in 18 months, and net short positions
held by funds are at record levels, according to the CFTC Commitments of Traders data.

But OTC market positions are often two to three times greater than exchange-traded positions, and as a result speculative
short positions by hedge funds may have increased by about 500 tonnes in recent weeks, an amount equivalent to one
year's production by South African gold mines, analysts said.

COMEX September silver was up 0.5 cent at $4.280 an ounce, as the contract continues to consolidate above contract
lows seen last week at $417.50. The September/December spread was steady around 6.0 cents an ounce.

But the PGM market remained highly backwardated, despite reports of a resumption of Russiane exports, after a six
month suspension.

NYMEX October platinum was up $1.50 at $390.00 an ounce, but spot platinum in the physical market remained above
$400 an ounce, quoted $403.00/407.00, while one month platinum lease rates remained offered around 50 percent.

NYMEX September palladium was up $1.55 at $154.00, with spot palladium around $172.00/176.00, with one month
palladium lease rates around 80 pct.

Russia's metal export agency, Almaz, confirmed overnight it had resumed exports of PGMs to Japan last week, while Ralf
Drieselmann, the head trader at European catalytic converter maker, Degussa, said the Russians had begun offering
PGMs in the spot market also.

But U.S. refining sources said they had not seen any offers from Almaz in the U.S. market and in fact believed Almaz had
been on the bid on NYMEX September palladium early Tuesday, perhaps to cover short postions.

``The market for palladium especially remains tight, with sponge still at a premium to ingot,'' one refining source said.

Russia supplies about 60 percent of the world's palladium and about 20 percent of its platinum.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 10:46
Roebear @ToraTora>(@ToraTora):
Japan views Chinese defense spending with concern:

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 10:41
panda @>(@):
D.A. -- I noticed, but I couldn't think of the rock group that did the tune, Losing my religion. It a while surfing the web.....

( Just kidding folks, goldbugitis is terminal! )

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 10:39
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
REB: I think gold will go up when the man on the street joins the gold game. Today he isn't playing. It was the man on the street that got us to 850 aided of course by the usual cast of daily players as relected in the Comex figures. Today gold is as far away from the concern of the people who will eventually turn it around as rhodium.

Its like 4 PM in any farmers market on a Saturday afternoon. The price of apples is dropping by the minute because the product is there and the buyers aren't. Some noticable would-be buyers are hanging around to get the lowest price they think possible ( me ) and the rest are heading for their cars. The drop in price is not related to a new truckload of apples ( CB dumping ) its related to the lack of interest.

Despite the multitude of reasons for gold to rise that are offered daily here and elswhere I doubt there will be any turn around until some new interest appears on the scene. Until then the price will decline until it isn't profitable to produce. This is not earth shaking stuff I don't think. The average cost of production figure is impossible to know so $275 is an estimate. Buying about there would seem a better idea than $380 proved to be. There were lots of rational arguments presented for gold to rise from 380 but the 17 year trend won out. Lots of flak for the few who suggested shorting at 380 as I recall.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 10:37
I should write more obituaries, gold up a $1.40. O.K., if that's what it takes...

I was wrong, I will buy the DJ-30, SP-500, sell short gold, silver, and what ever else. I renounce commodities. Stocks for ever! Credit forever! Give paper!

There, if that doesn't do it, nothing will! :- ) )

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 10:31
Steve - Perth>(
Was talking by 'phone to a Senior management guy at Bounty Gold mine today out at Southern Cross, West Australia, re dropping Gold price. Not a problem he said we have forward sold for the next 18 months. When I asked him what if gold dropped further & stayed down longer than 18 months, what would they do then? Strained silence. They hadn't thought about that one. Next subject.....
Me thinks it is a good time to do some detailed long term analysis on mine profitability across the board. Bounty is owned by Normandy/Poseidon.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 10:27
D.A. pop>(pop):

Any of my fellow gold bugs notice that gold and silver just went pop!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 10:25
Steve - Perth>(
I wonder if George Soros is thinking about a big hedge trade on pineapple ( Correction from last post ) .
Aussie dollar down in sympathy with Gold & flow on from Asian currency
problems. All Ordinaries index down again for 3rd day running. Well into 2630 territory now.
Looking at the Asian currency turmoil, I wonder if Bonds will tank similar to the 1994 Mexican situation. I can remember very clearly how the bond market became super volatile for a while, with the stock markets climbing strongly just beforehand. Amazing how soon we forget. What worries me even more is how a 24 yr got on Kitco a while back, asking what the 1987 crash was like. I am getting old, & I am only 32!!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 10:18
Steve - Perth>(
Heard on the news yesterday that Russian wharfies have not been paid for months, like the Russian army. They are now being paid with TINS OF PINEAPPLE!! The wharfies are now bartering & trading WITH tins of pineapple. Talk about currency turmoil!! I wonder if George Soros is thinking about a bit hedge trade on pineapple Shades of Rees-Mogg & crew. The Russians claim they will be paid in rubles soon. If this escalates, I can see Russia helping Iraq/Iran out down the track. Yep, the deflation is well on it's way. I just can't work out why the Yanks can't see it coming on them like a steam train?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 10:15
panda @>(@):
Selby -- My is off to you! You have managed to do what I have found difficult if not impossible, and that is to separate the emotion of gold from the market 'facts' of the day. Everyone wants stox, not gold. Although, I sense this is changing slightly. Perhaps it's the early birds nibbling. Again, congratulations, you were right and my index options have told me that I was very wrong.

I still believe the key to golds rise and the coincident stock damage will be the ForEx markets. As for the bottom in gold Let's see how far the stock mania goes. Clearly, we are beyond any rational standard when it comes to stock valuations. What was Dell a year ago? $20-$30 per share, and yesterday it closed at $138. A five to seven fold return in twelve months is 'normal'. :- ) ) At least, that's what some are banking on today. The Nasdaq Composite is up 50% from a year ago.

Don't misunderstand my comments, I'm not poking fun at you. I am sometimes too rational in some areas, with attendant weakness in others ( gold ) . Perhaps they are the flip side of the same coin?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 10:15
Larryn mine closings>(mine closings):
SELBY.. You mentioned mine closings. I have heard of the threat of closings, but have seen no names. Can anyone list the mines which have already closed or is this just rumor. If I had a mine, I wouldn't close, I'd just store the gold.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 10:13
REB na>(na):
Selby: You made the point that gold will go down because of a lack of buyers. I submit that this would be consistent with a low number of open contracts on the Comex. Yet I have the impression that the open number of gold contracts on comex is at a record high. Comment?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 10:12
KGB @in hiding>(@in hiding):
COMRADE PANDA: Truk is 1942 Lend Lease Dodge ( ve gif bak soon )

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 10:02
George Cole portent of things to come?>(portent of things to come?):

Date: Tue, 08 Jul 1997 10:36:07 -0500
From: Geoff Miller
Subject: The role of a central bank in a bubble economy

Announcing the availability of a study, The Role of a Central Bank in a
Bubble Economy. This study looks at the role a central bank can play in
the face of rapidly rising prices in real estate or equity securities
markets, under conditions of low inflation and high employment. It
explores a variety of factors that may prevent the central bank from
intervening to stop rapid price increases in asset markets. It uses as a
case study the role of the Bank of Japan during the bubble economy
period of 1988-1990.

Persons interested in receiving a copy of this paper can write or email
the author:

Professor Geoffrey Miller
New York University Law School
40 Washington Square South
New York, New York 10012


Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 09:57
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Nomercy: The trend in the price of gold for about 17-18 years is down.
The general consensus seemed to be that the average price of producing gold was about 275 10 months ago. A long term trend like the one gold is in may decline beyond a sustainable point so $250 seemed a reasonable estimate when gold was $380 or so. That's it.

With regard to your view that the CBs need to dump lots of gold on the market to further the decline --I don't think that is necessary although it would help. What is needed is a lack of buyers willing to pay today's price--a lack of interest from the potential buyers. We have that today.

Only bugs who think the bottom has been reached would buy today. Everybody else is siting and watching the decline unless they must buy for some reason that ignores the price. That's it.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 09:50
bb fisher buckle@up>(buckle@up):
July is nearly over so buckle your safety belt and prepare for August or a bit before when, my analysis suggests the next and most likely FINAL rally on the ever higher dow train commences. review my posted chart from sunday just past of the dow now versus the dow in 29 for % gain from low to high.
this next ( final ) leg up should see the dow carry to the 8700-9050 level perhaps even to 9200 by late september. from whatever level is reached we should witness the start of the most significant correction since 1990. tho the percent drop may not appear overly large the number of dow points will far exceed anything seen since 1987.

i think it will be at this juncture that we will witness a very worried ( tho they won't say they are ) FED add whatever liquidity is needed to try and prevent something truly unpleasant. their september meeting may prove irrelevant once the correction gets underway. they are now trapped into easy money if only to provide necessary liquidity much as in 87 only more so! i raise my glass to you at the FED and hope you succeed...the alternative should they not is deflation. this window will provide the precious metals best opportunity to rally into ( october-dec ) meaningfully in quite a while.

beginning late july into late september dow jones 8700-9050 or a bit more. the heralded autumn blowoff ain't never gonna happen. a correction of proportion is much more likely.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 09:42
nomercy selby>(selby):
...and what has created the market to drop to $314? mine shutting?...I'm forever a student and learner and was interested in how you came to predict $250?...and what makes you believe that it'll stop there...

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 09:42
vronsky Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL Part - IV (14 July 1997)>(Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL Part - IV (14 July 1997)):
Financial Fairy-tale or Expedient Global Monetary Necessity: Global Gold Standard?! STARTLING IMF data demonstrate its feasibility. BOJ’s T-Bond holdings is keystone for success. EMU member participation essential.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 09:34
D.A. keep.your.eye.on.the.ball>(keep.your.eye.on.the.ball):

Yes, isn't it odd that the commodity which 'must' go down is somehow getting harder and harder to borrow. If the lease rates go up another 50 basis points gold will be backward in DM. While there is nothing earth shattering or magic about this it will mean that the refrain which is constantly heard about gold shorts making money off the contango will no longer be true for any shorts denominated in the core European currencies.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 09:34
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Nomercy: Way to go. You seem more exercised about a possible $60 drop than most did when I sugggested a $130 drop 9-10 months ago. What's your problem? I think mines close when they can no longer make a profit and without regard for the book value of gold stored by CBs. Several have closed so far and it has little to do with $35 gold stored in the Tower of London and a lot to do with the decline on the market to $320.
As for the ramifications I leave them to you. If I can stay on top of the mine closings and actually buy near the bottom I will be happy.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 09:32
panda @72%>(@72%):
I'd like a raise too!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 09:25
panda @>(@):
BillD -- I'm still pissed off at myself for missing the chance to pick up some Pt Koala's earlier in the year when platinum was at $350/oz and no one wanted the stuff..... Obviously there was 'tons' of it around then, right?

How much stuff are the Russian's providing? A little? A lot? No one seems to be saying any exact figures, but the spot market is saying something. The truth is, the Russian's are probably shipping some amount, but, is it enough? Or just a 'face' saving manouver for

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 09:22
nomercy solving inflation>(solving inflation):
...another indication of reducing inflation and CPI numbers....they'll do anything to avoid the massive increase, forthcoming to pay babyboomers unfunded pensions...

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 09:20
REB na>(na):
Another jump in gold lease rates this morning.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 09:19
BillD Looky>(Looky):
Oct. Platinum
Sept. Palladium

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 09:16
nomercy selby>(selby):
...for gold to be driven down to $250 would require massive CB sales...though I don't know to you?...
..given your scenario...CB's would have to carry out their threat...and why stop at $250 when their bookvalue cost is only $35?
..which brings me to answer your question. No gold mine can produce gold at $35 ( must be calculated by some math flunkie ) as it has been suggested gold producers around the world would shut down...right?...for the next 11 years or so...Is that your scenario?... perhaps you can enlighten us as to the effect to gold producing economies...their markets...the inflow of capital...foreign exchange...and most of all PEOPLE CONFIDENCE!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 09:16
panda @poker.face?>(@poker.face?):
Is Mr. Yen a good poker player?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 09:15
BillD Silver@PGMS>(Silver@PGMS):
Silver and PGM's on the MOVE this morning...and the direction is still up....Somehow I believe that PGM's are in a Bull Mode!! Comments heavy are those Russky trucks Sounds like an effort to talk-down PGM'S, HUH

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 08:57
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Nomercy: I haven't given any thought to the ramifications of another 60-70 $ decline in gold. Should it happen the only thing of interest to me will be which mine ( s ) have reached their break even point.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 08:46
D.A. a.real.investor>(a.real.investor):

Sakakibara said: ``Gold's lustre has declined and I have
no interest in gold now.''

No doubt he was long the Nikkei at 39,000.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 08:34
Cmax @they never remember>(@they never remember):
I was watching last night on sat-tv a biography of the Dow Jones. The mentioned that after the '29 crash, the Securities Exchange
Commission was founded, primarily to prevent BANKS from selling stocks in the form of MUTUAL FUNDS. hmmmmmmmmmm

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 08:30
panda @MR.YEN>(@MR.YEN):
I don't like gold.

PGMs and Degussa, things O.K.?

Geeez, talk about talking gold down! They must be afraid of something.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 08:26
nomercy Selby>(Selby): your $250?...can you perhaps expand on as to the effect of your $250, on the stock markets around the world, such as the TSE which are dominated by gold stocks...what would happen to investments by non-gold mutual funds who are invested in say Top 100 Index?...If $250 or $275 does occur rest assured that its consequences will be felt not only by the precious metal mutual funds but it'll be a cause and effect onto other markets...and GOLD WILL rise in value!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 08:26
panda @Mr. Yen>(@Mr. Yen):
The big gun speaks;

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 08:24
George S. Cole:

I love it. Remember the Alamo! Glory, Glory, hallelujah.......

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 08:22
Mike Sheller Zen Buddhist post honoring JIN>(Zen Buddhist post honoring JIN):

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 08:19
D.A. live.a.little>(live.a.little):

Since I spend my life being disciplined, following systems and rules, every once in awhile its time to take a flyer. The only discipline that I bring to being a gold bug at the moment is that my position size is managable and my risk is no more than $320 / oz. This may seem silly, but one of the things that I've learned over the years is not to short commodities, any of them. Believe it or not, always being long commodities in a disciplined fashion is a winning game over time.

What kind of handicap do you carry around? 280 and down the middle sounds like a player to me. Perhaps some day we can beat the little white ball together.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 08:12
nomercy RJ>(RJ): it the West Coast air that is blinding you?...or is it the golden shine, which YOU KNOW will be brighter soon ( 6-9 months ) ?....the funds have picked their spot...weak summer'll be a little stronger by the end of August...provided nothing major or minor , say 10-15% correction in the Dow...or a little spillover in the Forex...then a little rally say $350 may happen sooner, as it is not Natural Forces bringing gold down, but excessive fund shorting. Your $275 may occur BUT NOT FOR THE REASONS YOU EXPECT OR IMAGINE...$275 is a MAJOR SUPPORT area ( even Peter Munk, seems to wish it ) and if does, the REAL FUN will start...and their greatest fear will materialize! Dare if you must!
Isn't it ironic that this nonsensical yapping of CB Sales, is only accepted only by those who have FEAR and probably invested in pyramid schemes or oppurtunists who advantage themeselves of temporary political decisions ...FEAR...its the reason that some don't respond to challenges!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 07:57
Tortfeasor Joke of the morning>(Joke of the morning):
I'm back from vacation and the gold and silver markets look as sick as ever, but like the following joke I don't wan't to complain too much about it because it is a buying opportunity.

A middle-class man decides to go off and join a monastery which requires an oath of silence. No speech is allowed except for two words every 5 years, to sum up one's experiences to the head monk.

After the first 5 years, the monk asked him what two words described his experiences and all he said was HARD BEDS.

When the next 5 year period came, the monk asked how things were and he replied BAD FOOD.

After 5 more years, he walked up to the monk and said, I QUIT!

The monk nodded and muttered Yes, this doesn't surprise me. You've been doing nothing but complaining for the past 15 years!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 07:53
George Cole historical analogies>(historical analogies):

Instead of Anglo Saxon financial establishment, I should have said the financial establishment of the english-speaking countries. Obviously, this establishment includes people from a number of ethnic backgrounds.

Being a study of history, the current state of the gold war is analogous in many ways to developments in the Soviet Union after Hitler invaded in 1941. The Germans won an astonishing number of huge victories in the war's early phases and pushed to the brink of Moscow. Everyone assumed their total victory was just a matter of time.

But everyone was mistaken. As they pushed deeper into Russia the Nazi supply lines became overextended and their forces grew vulnerable to devastating counterattacks.

Isn't this where we are today in the gold war? The shorts have won a series of smashing victories, but are growing ever more vulnerable to devastating counterattacks. They have to expend ever greater financial resources to keep the yellow going down as the price falls. It is just a matter of time before they fall prey to a massive counterattack which will wound them as severely as the Nazis were mauled at Stalingrad.

Despite their big victories to date they are going to lose the war and lose very badly.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 07:52
Auric @AWAY!!>(@AWAY!!):

JIN--I just KNEW you were a gold bug at heart! How high do you think gold will be by the year 2000?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 07:41
Good evening to you.
actually,i am none qualified investors in here.I am goldsmith and off course always bullish on my own asset and properties.BUT,some how i prefered to the market movement.As many gurus been mentioned here:believed the market,treat them well!.for short term,i feel this market will still negative. ( but who know? ) in long term,i still stand firm the precious metals are the good investments in future.
some teaching from buddist:EVERYTHINGS ARE IMPERMENENCE !,except this sentence.NOTHINGS HOLD FOR EVER!with this kind of mind,i think is make oneself more comfortable in investments and life time,isnt?
jin ( young learner )

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 07:04
panda @ForEx? Gold?>(@ForEx? Gold?):
Slow morning for ForEx news :- )

G7 gets edgy but seen holding off on big FX battle,

Indonesia 'loosening the bands'.

Japan bank group says Thailand has not sought aid.

Russia say s PGMs on the move.

Matsushita Elec says worried over Asia forex woes,

Thai crisis not forcing Japan firms to alter plans. :- ) )

Forex market overreacting, says Waigel,

Dollar/mark slips in Europe on Waigel comments,

Thai car makers to raise prices as baht tumbles,

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 06:58
Mike Sheller catchup ketchup>(catchup ketchup):
WDL: ( 21:22 ) re Arch Crawford Stocks are vulnerable. You don't need to be an astrologer to figure THAT one out. EB: You speakin' to me? I don't do numismatics. I'm down n' dirty - like gold bullion & the shares. What percentage? All depends on your point of view, your analytical underpinnings, and your faith. Every citizen should begin buying gold bullion coins NOW, if they haven't begun already. Maple Leafs, K Rands, etc. Dollar cost averaging over the next year will be nice. STRAD MASTER: ( 2:50 ) re this talk of $100 gold - there's a saying in Spanish about predicting what will happen that translates They see the balls, they know it's a boy. The analogy of a baby being born is not too far off here. Inasmuch as gold is in the gutter now, everyone figures gold will continue to go down, while stocks will continue to go up. Yeah, right. When this kind of talk is common, one has to figure the baby's been born.
ROEBEAR & RJ: Let's not start anything now...

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 06:48
Auric Good night.>(Good night.):

JIN @ 02:41--You must have done well. Congratulations! What is your guess, JIN, as to the high in gold between now and the year 2000? Good night and good fortune.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 06:39
Speed @waking up>(@waking up):
Jack: Those 100,000 brokers would call it Depression : )

EB: Monex, Blanchard, Jefferson Coin and Bullion, and compare with Kitco. Blanchard in New Orleans - 1 800 880 4653 Jefferson Coin & Bullion ( New home of Jim Blanchard ) 1 800 877 8847. Dallas Gold and Silver Exchange is good too. I don't have all of the numbers handy. Search on Coins and you'll get lots of hits. Ask about availability and shipping times, then post to Bill Buckler here or at the Privateer. Research is ongoing about demand for bullion at the retail level.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 05:40
Goldbug23 @Armageddon>(@Armageddon):
kuston: The guy you were golfing with and his logic has millions for company. Try and tell me the big guy with the shears isn't just around the corner, unfortunately. We will all pay a price for this folly.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 05:25
Jack Inflation?>(Inflation?):

Doesn't inflation cut both ways. What I mean to say is, if 100,000 stock brokers whose earnings total about $10 billion annually; lose their jobs and then pick up work that totals $2.5 billion annually. Isn't that inflation -at least for them?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 04:04
Jack RJ>(RJ):

Did you see Rubin sweating out comments about US trade with Mexico on C-SPAN? Also, check out
register -it's free so far. Then browse around for stories in their weekend edition. HAR HAR HAR and a bottle of Jamaican Rum - good stuff.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 03:56
Jack @ 03:26) Not again>(Not again):

Terry: Insert dont happen for happens

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 03:51
EB Mike Sheller...bungieinthehueydude...>(Mike Sheller...bungieinthehueydude...):
I posted this weekend regarding buying gold ( thank you scotty for your reply, btw ) . I would like to get your take, again ( I don't think you tire of these explanations ) on why and how much PM's should one have in their portfolio. Is numismatic a good way to go? You seem to have a good handle on the subject and are not afraid to voice your opinions. Much appreciated. I am also looking/waiting for a nice kitcoite to post good places to buy precious metals. There were a few good posts in the past but I am to lazy to look back. Thanks anyone.

kuston-280 and split? How was the second shot?


Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 03:26
Jack Terry>(Terry):

Terry ( 22:46 ) All governments say that, and when it happens they blame it on the gold-bugs.
Refering to the us goldbugs: Remember when the US was considering taxing non productive assets.
Sometimes I wonder if those present companies with sales 100 times their market cap's fit as non productive assets, especially if the market tanks. Quess, we can't tax losses.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 03:12
KGB: I just wanted to thank you for the fine work you did last week
with those trucks heading out your country. You did miss one though.
It cost me a few $$. But I know you'll correct the situation. Keep
up the good work. I did hear a rumor about another attempt to get
that fine white metal across the sea. But then, its just a rumor.

D.A. : welcome back - hope you enjoyed your R&R. I was surprised to
hear you joined the gold bugs today. I would of figured you would
of jumped on the platinum ship with it under $400.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 03:02
I went golfing today with a guy who told me the safest place to invest
money was in a Mutual Fund. I asked why? His answer was educational:
You see, these here Mutual Funds take money from thousands of people
and divide it up into pieces. Then they buy a stock with each peice.
This way, you divide the risk up between all the investors and all
the different stocks. It's the safest investment you can make. And
the returns are really good. I got 26% last quarter!! If I didn't
know any better - I would of thought he was a broker. No just a baby
boomer engineer who is up to his neck in debt and believes the market
will set him up for life. Instead of following up this line of conversation
I decided it was time to let the big dog eat. 280 and split the fairway.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 03:02
Roebear @RJ>(@RJ):
Dear RJ, while I have enjoyed some of your ditties, unless you can curb some of your late night excess you will never be a writer. I do believe you are the DR Jekyll to the hepcats Mr Hyde, or tonight rather the reverse. I do believe you have been in the hooch and hiked your skirt too much, exposing your true nature. Talent in and of itself is nothing without integrity.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 02:53
Auric @home at last>(@home at last):

Good evening everyone. I just finished work for the night. I have a few days off now. I would like to ask RJ his opinion on something. What do you think the high in gold will be between now and the year 2000?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 02:50
Strad Master $100 Gold?>($100 Gold?):
ALL: For what it's worth, today I got a special flash update from The Elliot Wave Theorist about gold as an indicator of the coming deflation. As usual it is full of arcane numbers and letters but if I can mange to accurately summarize the main point, it is that gold has decisively broken down out of a contracting trangle consolodation starting in '82 or '83 and the July 3rd break under the 1993 low of $325 confirms that this next big leg of the bear market is underway. They state further: Since being allowed to trade freeely in 1970, gold has ben a reliable indicator of inflation/deflation trends. The relative weakness over the last eighteen months and last week's price breakdown are warning loud and clear that deflation is now the monetary trend. They see deflation moving the market for gold down to just above $100 ( eventually ) with a nearer term target of $196 - $216. ( All this over the course of several years. ) After the eventual bottom THEN they see gold soaring up as it returns to favor once it regains its status as the ultimate money. Given how far off Prechter and EWT has been in recent years this all needs to be taken with a sizeable cube of salt. Nevertheless, I thought many here would find it interesting.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 02:41
Below is the feeling around over here, ( correct me if i am wrong ) !
many goldsmiths,manufactures,dealers been hit by the recently slide of gold price.More the forex exchage rate over mal/thai/sin/phi been hit by speculations movement.With this,in deeper mind,we still felt the gold price may declined as you mentioned.most of whom i know still did'nt covered their positions yet.I think both try to gained the profit from metal and covered the lost in the currency exchage rate.
sorry abt poor grammar ( try my best next time )
happy trading!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 02:22
EB and the beat goes on...OUCH>(and the beat goes on...OUCH):
This came across my netminder the other day:

a w a y:::EB

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 02:03
EB to the banquet...>(to the banquet...):
I smoke a mean turkey. And I can bring some of that tripe you were talking about. It's not too bad on the barby.

Cheers to all GOOD trades! the smoker with bad trades


Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 01:49
RJ Enough of this.....>(Enough of this.....):
There are some who seem quite amazed
That gold demonstrates such malaise
They learn this and that
But care not for the facts
And use not their minds, but their cajones.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 01:42
RJ Against my better judgment..............>(Against my better judgment..............):
The gang at Kitco still believe
Their long gold still may achieve
They will encounter tomorrow
Metric tons of sorrow
For gold will grant no reprieve

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 01:33
RJ And just what did it drop?>(And just what did it drop?):
Worlds Greatest - It would seem you have a rare bird indeed. A counter contrarian. The trick is not the dropping, but in recognizing what it means.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 01:33
EB Damn you Yello Mello...>(Damn you Yello Mello...):
for dragging my silver into that dark, dank crawl space under the house. Leave it alone!!!!!!



Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 01:27
EB Ryme or Slime?>(Ryme or Slime?):
There once was a Russian w/ precious metal
and he sold it all for fish in a kettle
now there's no more
and it's time to even the score
For all those who have the great mettle



Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 01:26
Worlds Greatest Investor newly found optimism>(newly found optimism):
Not to fear kitconites. The ultimate contrarian test has been conducted.
I painted 36 squares on a board in which only 1 said short.
My chicken has confirmed by her dropping, yep she hit the short.
Gold shall rise sunny side up. Goodnite!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 01:25
RJ Alas, poor gold.>(Alas, poor gold.):
Kitco prices say gold down .80 across the Pacific. Actually, Kitco prices don’t say anything, so let me rephrase: Kitco prices read: - .80 overseas. If Kitco prices could say anything, I’m sure it would be akin to OUCH.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 01:11
RJ Prose or Tripe?>(Prose or Tripe?):
Worlds Worst - The sin is not in making a bad trade, but in not calling it thus. You must pull out from under the crawl space and drag it into the sunlight, out in the front yard where all the neighbors can see. Then, as you proclaim it to the world, you drive a stake through the heart of the trade and bury it face down so it does not rise again. Once, having exorcised this demon trade, you are free to get on the right side and let the cool, gently rushing currents carry you with calm assurance to greater prosperity. Then you may shed the World Worst moniker and take your seat at the banquet of profiteers, for the only prerequisite to dine with us, is not to have been wrong, but rather to have been right more than you were wrong.. We will raise our glasses to toast and salute as we drink our good fortunes, and then to remember, in gentle sorrow, those who could not be there with us.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 01:02
Well, you can still pull out and go south! the south!


cherokee - I was just listening to Traffic while in traffic today...what a great album that was. Steve Winwood was ahead of his that time! Remember Lp's?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 00:55
RJ Pseudo-Semi>(Pseudo-Semi):
Am just waiting for the PGMs. There is a fat Russian lady warming her pipes as I type, she will sing soon. Still own Lots-O-PL, most hedged with short gold. I feel good, I feel safe. Nothing makes a trader feel so good as having the gods and the inevitable tide of history on his side.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 00:50
Worlds Worst Investor Futures 101>(Futures 101):
EB: You have a valid point there, it doesn't matter to me which way
gold moves as long as I am going the same direction.
I went long 7/3/97 if that gives you some perspective to my
phenominal timing. Tort: We need you're morning jokes!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 00:43
westly pamela@ilhawaii,net>(pamela@ilhawaii,net):
It is harder and more expensive to move the Dow from 7000 to 8000, than it is to go from 6000 to 7000. Cash inflows into MFs are still high but not as high as last year. So my question is, where is the money coming from to move the Dow up 24% in less than three months? Are the MFs using derivitives or bank loans based on the value of their stocks?

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 00:39
2weeks DEEP_in_prayer>(DEEP_in_prayer):
Schippi - nice chart. Captures the bounce well. Terry / Speed - Tell everyone in Australia they're a day off.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 00:39
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home):
D.A.: Ya got heart!

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 00:31
cherokee @styx-concert>(@styx-concert):

your chart gave a rise in the levis! this interpetation
caused a lot of long, hard thoughts to come and go.

there is something quite sensual about gold, and i'd like
to put my hand on it. ( the gold, the gold! ) there is no doubt
time is working to cloister enough energy into what will be
an un-believable rally. there will be so much volatility the
price of a futures contract will be too high for the ordinary
investor to participate unless already in. options will be equally

what's the solution? buy gold options now. every month buy several.
insurance is seldom this cheap. will the rest of rosens' hair fall-out
when he has to pay 100k or better for the options he sold for $30.00
or less? i think not. the skin, is where i'll begin.

remember when the oil industry went bust? there was a mindset of
total gloom and doom. look at the industry now. it is going
full steam ahead. this is indicative of life as a whole.
feast then famine. the pendulum waits for no-man.
but it was'nt the bullet that laid him to rest, it was the low
spark of high-heeled boys. ( traffic )

ok it WAS me. on the grain-train--------again-------!; ) ----------

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 00:25
Selby Nitish>(Nitish):
Good Point! As you say those who have something to say -say it. Those who have nothing to say -- say it--again and again and again. Revealing all.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 00:17
EB semi-demi...Did you kick PL friday?>(semi-demi...Did you kick PL friday?):
If you did than why don't you beat on it some more... It will be a good day when the Japanese find out the truth about the Russkies. Anything exciting to share?

Anyway I have some corn to shuck ( schuck?, sp? ) and some soybeans to mash and some wheat to thrash...oh my!

away:+ ) )


Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 00:15
ark salted@core.nut>(salted@core.nut):
On June 24 someone posted some Historic Paradigms which
all turned out to be false. Our Government is famous for
feeding the general public such pap. Word War I comes to
mind. It was the war to end all wars.

It occurs to me that the powers are trying a tad too hard
to turn gold into a commodity. It can't be done. Not
much has been written about the Pacific Rim economy.
That is where the future action is at/going to be. If it
hasn't allready arrived. It has been said here many times
the poor asian working man will buy a gold trinket just
as soon as he can scrape enough paper together. , etc.

The only way the has been Europeans can put it all together
is by forming a gold reserve for the various countries.
Gold is the only equalizer. Paper tiers, in what ever
form is not/will not form a European currency ( EC ) . The
paper house of cards will collape as it all ways has.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 00:10
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Laker-EB: It would look like a pure stroke of genius if I had shorted from 380 to 320. I think 320 to 275 would be a great move too. But not sitting long expecting a rise as the price declined is the best I could do.
BTW Laker is a good beer for the money--in Ontario.

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 00:05
Laker -EB has a ring to it, don't you think?>( has a ring to it, don't you think?):
But wouldn't it have been great to short the market? You should consider it now. With everyone pushing it down to the ( inevitable? ) $250 mark. Use options? What the hell...

World Worst Investor - You have been on the long side? Perhaps you should jump the fence and MAKE $1000/day over in the neighbors backyard? The quote should read: the trend COULD be you're friend. So go and buddy-up!

I'm sorry all bugs. But can't you still be a goldbug and make money from the other side? I like these markets because you CAN make money either way! AWAY


remember those Laker/Celtic championships

Date: Tue Jul 15 1997 00:03
George S. Cole @19:22: Your comments sound almost like a call to arms. I like that idea. I only wish my purse were equal to the contest.

With all due respect we can make a difference with our rhetoric! And yours is the loudest and sharpest of all. Earl, NOBLESSE OBLIGE! JOIN THE CORPS. TAKE UP THE BATON... A leader is needed!

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 23:57
Stonewall Jackson Dixie>(Dixie):
GS Cole: In what remote corner of the galaxy is the financial establishment Anglo-Saxon? Certainly not Great Britain or the USA.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 23:52
RJ D.A., you goldbug, you!>(D.A., you goldbug, you!):
The maxim about shorting a dull market is an excellent rule of thumb. I wonder which market you are talking about? Remember, gold hit a 12 year low one week ago. I think it might be wise to wait a bit before declaring this market dull. In fact, this is one of the more exciting three months I have seen for a long time. I read the static trading of gold to be further evidence of weakness. We all agree that 320 gold is a pretty good price, but no one seems to want it. I don’t think we will see serious buying come back in until we break 300. Once there, the trade will be to catch the rallies up to this level. You think gold is low? Before long, everyone will by whooping it up and praising the gods that gold has soared to 320. Hallelujah!

Good luck on your new venture. Very soon you will have the pride or dimay that only gold ownership can bring.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 23:30
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
EB: I don't know what Anglo Saxon has to do with the price of gold--ask George Cole @ 19:22. I did not make a lot of money shorting the market I'm too conservative--I just sold most of my precious metals stocks and avoided the 50-60 $ loss. Its all in the Kitco archives. You can search manually now for the discussion or wait for the search feature to work again.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 23:30
George S. Cole @19:22: Your comments sound almost like a call to arms. I like that idea. I only wish my purse were equal to the contest.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 23:26
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
Technical bounce or time to scale UP?

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 23:17
Terry Oz@canada>(Oz@canada):
I see said the blind fella. Thanks

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 23:14
EB Celtic-Selby 20:50>(Celtic-Selby 20:50):
I'm trying to understand what Anglo-Saxon & Celtic have to do with $250 gold. Please explain...and are talking as though gold is @ $250. That is $70 away. So what you're saying is that ( and I'm assuming that with your prediction that you backed it up with $$ ) you have already made $7000 per contract ( $10=$1,000 ) and it's in the bank Right? Wait...we should be using Oct '96 when gold was at $395/oz. That is $145 or 14,500 per contract. So being Celtic-you made a shipload of $$$ Righty Oh I don't know, I am just a stupid California-surfer-johnny-come-lately-Dude.

Away..until I get pounded by everyone...


predictions are like bums...everbody has one

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 23:13
Speed @wizardry>(@wizardry):
Terry: You left out the colon, this should do it.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 23:05
Terry Oz@canada>(Oz@canada):
OK I'll play a silly game,I did it wrong.Help

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 22:59
Scotty now for something completely different....>(now for something completely different....):
While the rest of SE Asian currencies are in the dumper, the Indian Rupee seems to be going up too fast.....hmmmmm......

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 22:59
Byron @ Keep Your Heads Down:>(@ Keep Your Heads Down:):
RT: Wow! Someone mentioned earlier about a battlefield. Could you do a translation on the Weekly Gold Chart?

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 22:55
Scotty Baht and Yen problems?>(Baht and Yen problems?):
One thing I didn't thing about when I first saw the Baht ( and other SE Asian currencies ) start to head south: the Yen has a big role in that part of the world. Here's an interesting article showing a possible crisis for the yen if the baht remains unstable.....

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 22:54
Terry Oz@canada>(Oz@canada):
Hey blokes,Oz government is about to do away with inflation? Sound familiar? Go to

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 22:39
Roebear @Oops>(@Oops):
panda, I missed your 21:23, yup, that's the 50 pounder I'd like to see ring the bell.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 22:26
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
panda, you are right, I would never pick on you, your posts have done me too many favors including moral ( e ) support. Extending the explanation, are there enough little hammers ( Thailand, Phillipines, Punt/Franc etc. ) to grow into a 50 lb sledge? Or am I grasping at sledge hammers ( see my portfolio for that answer !: ) )

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 21:44
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Moregold: I don't see a lot of negative news about gold. Except for the expected and usual comments about mines closing and jobs lost most of the comments I see are the reasonable and expected results of gold's price declining. Sure they have some effect but I think the big issue is that
gold continues to decline for almost 20 years and it is declining very quickly now. If you accept that the economy -not just the US economy-- is growing at the moment then that is what to expect. Gold will not get too far below its cost to mine and after that it will rise. The problem you run into is that the valid reasons for gold to rise are logical but not current and are premature. If you think of it--all predictions and premonitions based on graphs, or the stars for the past 18 years have been premature. This doesn't mean they are wrong just not current. There are no immediate, current reasons for gold to rise as far as I can see. The bald undeniable fact is that the people who will make gold rise in price and with it gold mine shares --don't want to buy any now. That's it. Price drops. Only stop is a change in attitude or a decline to the cost of making the stuff, Pure capitalism.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 21:41
D.A. ahem>(ahem):

No, it was only the foolish romantic in me that made me do it. Rest assured that none of our investors funds will be subject to such folly. For them the systems rule.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 21:31
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SPEED: The ratio is 24.69 today. The highest reading of this cycle remains 25.06 on July 8th at 10:30 AM. The Dow has been dropping faster than gold since the 8th. It is much too soon to identify that date as the top though.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 21:31
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home):
D.A.: Did your model switch to a buy for gold?

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 21:29
MoreGold @Battlefield>(@Battlefield):
This is one depressing day here. I agree that the powers can and may drive Gold well under the price of production to 250, but it will cost them
dearly to put thousands of miners out of work.
If things are as bad as some say, why are futures still carrying a premium. Contango? As with other commodities, this is what should be happening. Something is going on and I don't think anyone can clearly point to it yet. Probably a combination of many factors.
Meanwhile someone is still buying up the massive amounts of shorted Gold at these prices? Why hasn't the price already fallen further,
with the daily bombardment of negative news?
I will personally continue to hold my Dec calls until Nov, and let then expire if that's what happens.
The shorters may bag the little premium in the end, or they may be paying out big time. I know what side im on.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 21:29
RT @bottoms up?>(@bottoms up?):
A trendline case for THE gold bottom and a possible HUGE rally to come:

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 21:28
vronsky Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL Part - IV (14 July 1997)>( Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL Part - IV (14 July 1997)):
Financial Fairy-tale or Expedient Global Monetary Necessity: Global Gold Standard?! STARTLING IMF data demonstrate its feasibility. BOJ’s T-Bond holdings is the keystone for success. EMU member participation essential.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 21:23
panda @>(@):
This is kind of like an Red delicious apple compared to a Brisbane apple but, here it goes. The XAU index compared to the Amex gas and oil index, with the ratio shown. Cute divergence. So if the Dow is to go up, so must the oil stocks. What about oil? What does this mean for the almighty Dollar? And gold? Punts, Franks, Marks, Pesos',.... Does anyone remeber the little currency turmoil we had about a year ago? I believe that Bloomberg radio was reporting at that time, that a run on the Dollar was a strong possibility. It never materialized, but the public announcement of the THOUGHT that it might happen, was quite interesting. Of course the Dow is a few thousand points higher now.... So don't worry, be happy! :- ) ) :- ) )

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 21:22
WDL @ Dow correction>(@ Dow correction):
Just received my latest copy of Individual Investor. Arch Crawford,
who espouses market timing by planetary cycles and technical analysis, thinks stocks are vulnerable. Crawford, who called both
the August, 1987 top and October, 1987 crash, predicts a 35% to 50%
drop within the next 30 months.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 21:12
Japan @ the golden moment>(@ the golden moment):
To all.... Thank-you America for making our gold purchases a bargain.
We will insure a higher price by the end of our day. It's a very good trade... U.S dollars for Gold

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 21:08
WW: The anti-gold bugs have the momentum now, but it can't last. It takes much more money to buy the dow today, than it did last year or 5 years ago. The ferocity of the gold shorts and the ebullience of the paper longs must of necessity be limited by the law of diminishing returns. This is why we saw wave after wave of rolling corrections in various sectors last year. ( Anyone remember the tech disaster? ) This is why the mid and small caps are not growing as fast as the blue-chips held by the index funds. The pros and the big bucks are using momentum and favorable press to keep the game going. Bill Buckler is collecting stats that will show, I think, that the individual investor is now moving into the coin and bar market avidly. If true, the winds of change have begun to blow. Meanwhile, I will attempt to make money on stocks but buy insurance in metals.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 21:07
panda @!>(@!):
Roebear -- Picking on me? :- ) )

The reason I watch the currencies is because I believe that gold is a currency. The ultimate currency, IMO. Consider if you will, that we all work for this fiat money as a store of our work. That 'store of value' will be exchanged in some future transaction to obtain a good or service. If the authority that issues the fiat money can revalue that money at any time, how good a store of 'value', or more precisely, 'store of past effort' can it be?

So we have before us, governments adjusting the relative 'worth' of their fiat money with respect to one another in order to prevent trade imbalances, or worse. Who are these 'speculators' whom the governments and central banks despise? Remember, this is your 'work' that they are re-pricing after the fact ( after you've been paid! ) . The speculators see an obvious imbalance and attempt to profit by it. Market forces then correct the imbalance or expose the charletan for what he is. Somewhere along the way, the 'full faith and credit' clause of the respective governments gets damaged and gold tends to look pretty in the eye of the beholders. In general, stock holders are blind to this fifty pound market sledge hammer, known as currency volatility. :- )

Bond holders, on the other hand, sense the danger quickly. Then again....

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 21:03
D.A. squish>(squish):

So this is what its like to be a gold bug! A few seconds of fleeting glory when your position is ahead 30 cents then squish. Down like a stone in a heartbeat, then a little itty bitty rally at the close to keep you wishing for tomorrow. Wait, I know these feelings, its just like being short S&P's. You never win.

Truth be known, I'm more a silver bug than a gold bug. Someone posted that Mr. Gates's already staggering pile of paper wealth increased by something on the order of 2 billion today. It is a sobering thought to consider that a single solitary person made enough money on one random day to buy nearly all the silver bullion in the world. It on this extraordinary arbitrage that I pin my hopes. Sooner or later a man with metalic tastes is going to decide to have the silver market for lunch. In the mean time, I hope I am not someone elses appetizer.

Once again the gold lease rate has headed higher. Why do you suppose that the most hated investment vehicle is getting harder to come by?

I know that I'm wishing and hoping and grasping for straws, but I noticed that the TRIN was over 1, with the stock market being up today. I don't recall seeing this kind of action in quite awhile but truth is I don't watch it very closely. The feel of the stock market seems to be changing as does the sentiment. The one thing that stands out is that no one can come up with a good reason why stocks might go down other than that they are at high valuations. The flip side is obviously gold. No one can come up with a good reason why it should go up. I can't either. But then that's good.

My partner ( boss ) has been over in Europe the past week talking with some of our clients and trying to scare up some new ones. The sentiment over yonder with regards to EMU is interesting. Although few people seem to feel that it is viable to take disparate economies and political systems and shoehorn them into the same monetary policy, there is overwhelming feeling that the politicians will at least get it to occur. What startles me is that at every opportunity the electorates of Europe have effectively voted against EMU. Since the German people will also get a chance in a years time to have their say, and they perhaps have the most to lose through EMU, I can't quite understand how they are not going blow the whole thing right out of the water, if the currency markets don't do it before they get a chance. How was that for a run on sentence.


I owe you an email and will endeavor to write ASAP. Hope all is well with your wife and the fiddle to be.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 20:59
Cmax The CATO Institute examines the varios types of gold standards possible>(The CATO Institute examines the varios types of gold standards possible):

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 20:50
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Not being Anglo or Saxon ( as far as I know ) but mostly Celtic I think the recent concern about $250 ( and with recently found conspirators ) is a bit late. The handwriting on the wall was there for all to see many months ago. While it was popular to state gold was going to 500-600 --up for sure--no one could answer the question Why not $250 Some did try here to find a resonable retort to the unpopular question but the conclusion was available for all to see last fall. Empty hopes for a major rise were popular but there was no reason at all to prevent a decline. The difference was just hope. Well hope wasn't enough. The current cost of production may well be above $250 now-if so the bottom is higher than 8 months ago. There is no immediate reason for gold to rise. There is no immediate reason to have its decline reversed. The problem is not the unidentifiable forces that control gold's price. The problem for us is that gold is and has been out of favour for months--actually almost 2 decades. It is reaching a bottom I believe as it gets close to the cost of making the stuff. Too bad nobody knows what the cost actually is.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 20:36
Lan Man $ilver Indicator Gone Haywire?>($ilver Indicator Gone Haywire?):
With Silver down to around $4.28/oz, wonder what the silver stocks are trying to say: PAASF @ $6.375 and SSRIF @ $3.375 and CDE @ 13.125 - all three up today. Either silver is heading back up soooooon, or one of my indicators has broken down - big time. Maybe just a little exuberance on the part of stock purchasers thinking that they are getting in at the bottom...

Could be wrong, but I just can't see that the bottom in gold has been put in, too many think that they are getting in for the long ride back up. Gold will at least retest the low teens and if that holds, will commit my trading funds back in. Still holding the jr's though.

The 60-year cycle says that this christmas should be a belly full of laughs for the goldbugs...

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 20:34
WW @NE>(@NE):
If this were a normal mkt I would be bullish as hell and probably, given the commitment of traders, it would not have reached this level. The issue is the power,intent and ability of those apparently savaging and propagandizing against this mkt. It has almost reached hysterical proportions but the pattern of trading continues day after day when such things as the COT and sentiment indicators tell you it shouldnt. Ditto for stks ONLY IN REVERSE. Anybody who follows these mkts can clearly see the patterns. DO THEY HAVE THE ABILITY TO DO CONTINUE WHAT THEY ARE ATTEMPTING TO ACHIEVE Comments!!

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 20:12
vronsky THE INGER LETTER FORECAST - July 9, 1997 Report>(THE INGER LETTER FORECAST - July 9, 1997 Report):
“But a very overdue meaningful correction is on the agenda. After all, stock market here is “ONLY” priced at something like 2.5 times gross world product ( of all nations ) .” SEE:

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 20:08
Roebear @calling George Soros>(@calling George Soros):
Panda, Can you shed some light on all the action going on in currency. I do not know much about currency markets, is there a hope for gold in all this and why? Hope I'm not picking on you, thanks for the posts!

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 19:43
Jack also__whew, not my day>(also__whew, not my day):

We must also consider the amount of government debt and currency in circulation, plus inflation about two years before the tricky guy closed the gold window.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 19:32
Jack Think about this>(Think about this):

If gold goes to $250, it's still about seven times higher than when the tricky guy closed the gold window; while our living costs have probably increased about 3.5 times.
This has occured with massive currency support schemes ( remember Volker ) and simularly major attempts to drive the gold price down.
The result of Europe's large unemployment figures could be the result of those efforts; and perhaps not making the muster for EMU.
Now the USofA is so desperate, that they have promoted the low cost third world to solve their real inflation problems.
It's still the same mean world, they are just using different tactics.
Could be why the less developed countries are buying gold. More power to them.
The fair bottom price for gold is $600 bucks, from there I don't know the limit. It ain't up to us

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 19:29
REB na>(na):
one month lease rate up again today.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 19:22
Larryn down?>(down?):
It looks like my technical rally has petered out.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 19:22
George Cole>(

I doubt the Anglo-Saxon financial establishment will be able to drive gold to $250, but the possibility cannot be ruled out entirely. The savagery and tenacity of the shorts' attack only makes sense if they believe they are operating in accord with the establishments' wishes.

On the other side of the equation there is great support for gold in Asia and other parts of the world. And the U.S. establishment does not always achieve its objectives which can change vastly from one generation to the next. I SUSPECT THE CURRENT OBJECTIVE OF DRIVING GOLD DOWN TO $250 TO SUPPORT A HUGELY OVERVALUED STOCK MARKET WOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED BY THE FINANCIAL ESTABLISHMENT 20 YEARS AGO. But we live in very unusual times.

If we are to win this battle, we must understand the forces opposing us -- their resources, objectives, and tactics.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 19:21
panda @hedges>(@hedges):
Depending on your position, you could elect to buy puts on stocks that you hold or short against the box. Shorting against the box means that you short the exact number of shares that you are long. This effectively means that you make no money going up or down. You do this to lock in your present gain or loss, usually for tax purposes. You can also sell calls on stocks that you own, but you run the risk of losing the underlying stocks for what might be a small premium now. Another alternative for those holding a basket of stocks would be to buy HUI puts or XAU puts depending on the make up of your portfolio. A varation of portfolio insurance. Now, if I just took my own advice! :- )

One last comment. The moment any of you do this, I guarentee that your stocks will rise. :- ) )

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 19:20
vronsky THE DINES LETTER (July 14, 1997)>(THE DINES LETTER (July 14, 1997)):
Of Japan's $220 billion in foreign-currency reserves, 76% is now in US dollars. Nippon legislator says Japan’s gold reserves far too low. Dine’s ALL-GOLD REPORT has interesting insights:

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 19:16
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Roebear: Sorry, I think I've done all I can.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 19:10
Mike Sheller faith troops>(faith troops):
WW: Well Put. GEORGE S. COLE: The dow can easily rise to 10,000 without a gold smash. Indeed, history demonstrates that gold rises during the last segment ( and a very small segment ) of a stock bull market. So rising gold from here would more than anything indicate an approaching stock top. Until and UNLESS gold starts to rise, stocks will continue to reign supreme. WHEN gold STARTS to rise, it means stox days are numbered.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 19:08
panda @whoooops!>(@whoooops!):
French Frank and Irish Punt going head to head, err, I mean Punt to Frank, or is it Frank to punt?

Damn those trading bands!

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 18:59
Wizard A Oz>(A Oz):
Current speculation about $250/oz. gold, reminds me of 'shouting assurances' that it would reach $1,000/oz., in Jan. 1980. Has anything

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 18:55
Roebear @forecast>(@forecast):
Selby, would you hazard another prediction? Such as how long gold will stay at 250, where will the XAU be, will Santa bring Goldbugs a present this year?

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 18:52
WW @NE>(@NE):
We must ask ourselves the Questions 1 ) Can the powers that be drive gold to 250 2 ) If we believe they can why are we in gold. If we believe they cant and this mkt is like a spring that will rocket when the time comes then stay the course.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 18:50
The Wizard @ Oz>(@ Oz):
The Central Banks do not have a monopoly on truth, or the markets.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 18:41
Paul Smith>(
Worlds Worst Investor ( @LOOOOSEEEER ) :

Re: How much longer do we have to keep waking up and realizing, oops there goes another $1,000+ everyday.

Welcome to the club ! By the way, I'm very upset that you're stealing what I thought was my title !


Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 18:28
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
George S. Cole; Don't forget you heard $250 from me first. About October 1996. Amazing how these Johhnie comelatelys get the credit for mimicking my views.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 18:22
John @home>(@home):
Silver is down again! It's getting harder and harder not to just call it quits and take my loses and trust in the dollar.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 18:16
Roebear @HersheyGC>(@HersheyGC):
Jack, the deed is done, will let you know what WGC says.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 17:20
george cole $250>($250):
Projections of $250 gold by people like Andy Smith, Ted Arnold, and Wayne Angell should be seen as targets that they and the financial establishment that employs them would like to achieve. The powers that be are going to throw in all their reserves ( pun intended ) to drive the yellow down to these levels. Their objective is to destroy gold once and for all as an alternative to the greenback in the international currency arena. The kind of blowoff rally to Dow 10,000 now being widely discussed simply cannot happen unless gold is driven below $300.

Whether the Wall Street and banking establishments will succeed in their drive to push gold to $250 is another question entirely. But let there be no mistake about what they are trying to do.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 17:08
Worlds Worst Investor @LOOOOSEEEER>(@LOOOOSEEEER):
How much longer do we have to keep waking up and realizing, oops there
goes another $1,000+ everyday.
I woke up the other night, chanting the trend is your friend the trend
is your friend But just like a gambling fool I keep thinking na
Ill get it back tomorrow.
Nobody told me PE ratios over 50 were reasonable. He HE HE HA HA HA
Oh well it's only money.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 16:34
ezau swami@sag.mar>(swami@sag.mar):
A couple of waiteress were heard to say, Yeah, sex is like
snow, ya never know how many inches yer going to get or
how long it will last. FISHER@02:30 this am. Let me add
my thanks for the great chart.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 16:27
Here is the monthly GC7U chart. Say what you will about all things connected to gold; the chart has the final word. Until the last bar begins to change from dark to light, the course remains bearish. A long shadow on the downside with a small solid body at the top would change the picture. Two weeks remain in the month.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 16:10
Miro @rich Bill Gates gets richer>(@rich Bill Gates gets richer):
Well, it looks like that Billy G. grew his pile by another $1.5 billions
today. MSFT stock went up by 3.9%. Now, if he just moved his today's
earning in gold .. ;- )

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 15:39
JACK Can't figure what I was thinking?>(Can't figure what I was thinking?):

RETRACK MY ( 15:29 ) , Can't figure out how I came up with that one? Happens sometime

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 15:29
Jack Best way to hide a stupid move>(Best way to hide a stupid move):

Lower interest rates to make your currency drop; then sell your hoard of gold, to make it look like_____ HEY THEY SOLD GOLD AND THE CURRENCY DROPPED. Right RBA
By the way whose your adviser? Got a pile of horse manure I want to sell at a big profit.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 15:13
Jack Roebear>(Roebear):

Robear: Please send your ( 09:53 ) by e-mail to the World Gold Council
They will surely like the idea.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 14:37

Some LBMA data

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 14:32
It seems that a majority of the significant drops in gold have occurred during New York trading hours ( over last 2 weeks ) . Is it mostly north americans that are shorting gold?

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 14:15
nailz @MONDAY >(@MONDAY ):
HEY TED !!!!! Isn't today the day you are supposed to get back ? Just look at what happens to the gold market when you go away !!!!

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 14:06
You sound a lot more cynical than me. I read his report thinking he could be right as long as the dollar stays almighty. Don't get me wrong, I recently made a big move into gold mining stocks ( they seem to go up faster and further and sooner than the metal ) because I don't think the almighty dollar will stay almight 4ever.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 13:46
viewer Wayne Angell>(Wayne Angell):
MACHf15: Wayne Angell represents one of the oldest and most important Wall Steet brokerage houses. His tune is dictated by the the need to sell paper - which means saying, tainting and distorting market realities. He is obliged to promote market mania of paper assets, and contrarily bad-mouth real assets ( gold ) . He knows quite well both are at opposite ends of the teeter-totter ( as one rises the other falls ) . Should he NOT promote the party-line, he would be summarily fired! What would you do in his shoes?

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 13:26
Mike Sheller scanning>(scanning):
ROEBEAR: Blessed are you, Roebear, for you got Pilate dead to rights. It WAS the truth he was lookin' at. DA: Stop your wife NOW. Tackle her. Don't let her buy any blue chip stocks or mutual funds. As for you, to become a goldbug just repeat after me I renounce paper money and all its devices, I will use it only as a receipt for specie, I will purchase a pre determined amount of Maple Leafs every month, for the next year, no matter what the price, I will not buy any stocks, unless they are mining shares, or unless tipped by THE ASTROLOGICAL INVESTOR, for the next two years, and I swear this on the eternal value of my immortal soul. Congratulations. Now go and buy some gold, and sin no more
POORBOYS: Re Sunspot cycle, I must confess I've neglected it. Will look into sunspots as soon as I find my prescription shades!.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 13:22
For Your Info...

GREECE: Buy the video - DO NOT go in person.

The stories are endless, the bottom line is simple economics. Greece is no longer a place - it is a marketing event. Missed it by 10 or 15 years is my guess.

Tourism represents fully 80% of the ANNUAL greek income stream, they work the event like a cheap carnival, with no intent for repeat business.

Virtually all the ( original ) antiquities have vanished over the years at the hands of the dominating nations ( for which there was no shortage over the last 4000+ years ... Even the stuff in their national museum say casting of original statue located in the British National Museum, etc. )

It goes on and on and on and on ...

I am thinking of writing it down and posting it on the internet. If I really do a good job I honestly believe one person CAN make a difference and start a wave that can take down a corrupt economy - but, then again, I have always been a careless romantic.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 13:20
panda @>(@):
English Pound causing Irish Punt troubles. Just don't use the, devaluation, word! ERM, EMU, what do all these Es mean anyhow?

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 13:10
Ron Yardeni Sounding Alarm on Deflation>(Yardeni Sounding Alarm on Deflation):
See 'Deflation Message from Gold?' under Resource Center Lots of cool gold charts, including some of CB reserve levels.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 13:09
D.A. an.old.saw>(an.old.saw):

Its been said to never short a dull market. With gold and silver selling off a bit and then justing sitting listless in the water it seemed like a good time to buy. I am now officially a gold and silver bug. It is interesting to note that gold is holding pretty well despite the massive strength in dollar / mark. We shall see.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 13:05

Monday July 14 12:03 PM EDT
NY precious metals mostly weaker midday

NEW YORK, July 14 ( Reuter ) - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures were mostly weaker midday Monday,
but volumes were very light.

``There was some trade and bullion bank selling silver, but volumes were light and there's no real feature to the activity
today,'' one COMEX floor trader said.

COMEX August gold was down 90 cents at $321.30 an ounce, though intraday and daily momentum indicators have
been recovering in the past few sessions, while 20-day historical volatility has steadied around 14 percent, up from six
percent back in mid-June.

For now, August gold is seen in a $320.00-323.00 range, traders said, as funds continue to take profits on record net
short positions.

COMEX gold open interest fell 1,969 lots Friday to 214,421 contracts, but open interest is at its highest levels in 18

When gold was trading at $343 an ounce on June 10, the net speculative short position on COMEX was 33,272 lots, but
four weeks later, when gold prices were down to $335, the net speculative short position, including funds and small
traders, was 70,665 lots, according to the CFTC Commitments of Traders data, and since then COMEX open interest
has risen further.

``The net speculative short position on COMEX is probably now 90,000-100,000 lots, more than 50 percent above the
prior record,'' one analyst said.

Including OTC short sales, ``over the last five weeks, fund short sales have probably been on the order of 500 tonnes ore
more,'' he said.

``That is what has broken the gold price, not 167 tonnes of Australian reserve gold sold over six months.''

Gold fixed at a 12 year low last week at $315.75 in London, after news of a sale of 167 tonnes of gold by the Reserve
Bank of Australia, which encouraged more short selling by hedge funds.

In the bullion market midday Monday, spot gold was quoted $320.50/00, compared to the London Monday afternoon fix
at $321.70 and the New York close Friday around $321.60/10.

COMEX September silver was down 8.0 cents at $4.315 an ounce. Last week September silver saw a contract low at

COMEX silver open interest fell 1,705 lots Friday to 96,667 contracts.

NYMEX October platinum was down $4.20 at $391.50 an ounce, but spot platinum in the physical market remained
above $400 an ounce, quoted $405.50/409.50 midday.

NYMEX September palladium was up 50 cents at $153.50, with spot palladium around $165.50/169.50.

One month lease rates in platinum eased a little Monday to around 40-50 pct, but palladium lease rates remained firm
around 80-90 pct, dealers said.

Japanese trade houses reported last week that some Russian palladium had arrived in Japan, but platinum was not due to
arrive until this week.

Russian PGM exports had been suspended for six months. Russia supplies about 60 percent of the world's palladium and
20 percent of its platinum.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 13:00
Paula Jones Isaw@it.all>(Isaw@it.all):

Give me 500 pounds of gold and I'll forget I saw your ginital herpes ( complex - 4 ) ....

Love, Paula

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 12:50
anybody @limit-up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!or close to it>(@limit-up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!or close to it):
who made the accurate calls on the grains last week?

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 12:21
I saw this in today's electronic Baron's ( ) . Thought it might provide some fat to chew on.....

Wayne Angell, the former Fed governor and now chief economist at Bear
Stearns, forecast this year's drop in gold prices in a December 1996 Wall
Street Journal article. He now sees the price slipping toward a once
unimaginable level near the $230-$250 it costs the more efficient North
American producers to mine an ounce of the metal.

``The main message of the price of gold,'' Angell contends, ``is that the world's central bankers are increasingly prone to increase their holdings of U.S. Treasury notes, relative to their holdings of gold.'' And that is because under the Volcker-Greenspan regime at the Federal Reserve, ``people have come to see the dollar as a very stable currency relative to world wholesale prices.'' So, gold is moving toward an equilibrium point with the low end of world production costs, ``a process that I presume is already three-quarters done.'' That suggests the price would fall below $300, as average production costs rise somewhat to meet it, owing to the need to spend more to tap into increasingly scarce deposits, Angell predicts.

Any comments?

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 12:18
Ron Is it Syph?>(Is it Syph?):
Excerpt from last week's Drudge Report ( ) :


President Clinton's lawyers in the Paula Corbin Jones case are finally asking the question: What distinguishing characteristic does she claim to have seen on Bill Clinton's body?

The WASHINGTON POST's Peter Baker in Wednesday editions:

In a set of interrogatories sent to Jones last week, the Clinton legal team requested a copy of an affidavit she signed describing the physical traits she said she noticed when she was allegedly propositioned by the then-Arkansas governor in a Little Rock hotel room... Jones has never said in public and her attorneys have resisted revealing that detail, deeming it one of their trump cards.

Jones has 30 days to respond.

This space was first to reveal the theory that the characteristic is a bald eagle tatoo. An Arkansas state trooper on the talk radio circuit says he's seen a mole, the size of a quarter, near Clinton's crotch.

But now there is new talk in and around the Jones camp. Word is that the characteristic is likely neither. The president has a medical condition that causes skin irritation -- clearly visible to the eye. This, the story goes, is her claim. Jones will ask for an independent physical examination, likely from an urologist. Baker has Bennett flaring up, vowing to fight any such proposal all the way to the Supreme Court, again.

The case will reach the trial stage in early '98 if the President and Jones fail to settle out of court.


EBN spot down 1.50

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 12:10
A couple of weeks ago someone came on line here, ( didn't give their name but said that they were some heavy hitter we would all know ) , and said that July 12th would be the day that gold would rise. Has he or she been back?

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 11:59
Bob @...self-fullfilling prophecies>(@...self-fullfilling prophecies):
The Internet story stocks continue to fuel the fire of desire ( or is that greed ? ) ;- )

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 11:51
Bob @... on US global business dominance>(@... on US global business dominance):
The Forbes Foreign 500 earned $208 billion on $7.9 trillion in revenues in the most recent fiscal year, compared with $295 billion on $4.8 trillion in revenues for their U.S counterparts in the Forbes Sales 500, the magazine said. So, U.S. firms earned $87 billion more than the 500 non-U.S. companies did on a little more than 60 percent of the total sales.

---- end quote ---

What amount of the differential could be attributed to advance deployment by U.S. global enterprises of ( principally ) U.S. Information Technologies ?

( To be fair, the German software house, SAP, is a $4Billion sales datbase vendor that has a nice chunk on the large enterprise database market due to advanced complex software technology. This is an exception to the rule-- U.S. soucred IT industry dominates the world. Even the Japs got caught with their pants down and are having big trouble getting their Internet act together. )


Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 11:35
Bob surprise here>( surprise here):
Gates world's richest businessman.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 11:33
vronsky THE INGER LETTER FORECAST - July 9, 1997 Report>(THE INGER LETTER FORECAST - July 9, 1997 Report):
“But a very overdue meaningful correction is on the agenda. After all, stock market here is “ONLY” priced at something like 2.5 times gross world product ( of all nations ) .” SEE:

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 11:30
2weeks while_tortfeasor_is_gone>(while_tortfeasor_is_gone):
Poorboys, could you stand in for him at the humor position? You seem to have the gift.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 11:06
Steve - Perth>(
Currency Fever a Painful Affliction....

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 11:00
Steve - Perth>(
Australian blue-chips start the descent...
If Foodland did 98% in 12 months, what do you expect
A lot of smart money got out or reduced exposure months ago.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 10:50
Steve - Perth>(
What Australians believe. Latest Survey. They don't believe PM John Howard on jobs.
This government has gone from positive anticipation after 13 years of Labor, to unbelievable levels of disillusionment.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 10:44
Steve - Perth>(
AMNESTY: Aussie Dollar keeps on dropping
If it keeps up, the likelihood of inflation kicking in becomes higher. House prices are just starting to get ready to move in Perth in some suburbs. Well behind Sydney.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 10:35
Poorboys nochange@trend>(nochange@trend):
Mooney- Yes I remember you at the Colonial you came to the bar and asked for something tall, skinny and full of liquor and I said here take my wife but leave the Gold jewellery.I think one thing we both agree on stick to the charts .The Trend is your best friend.Happy Trails.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 10:26
Poorboys toomany@studies>(toomany@studies):
Mike Sheller RE Sunspots The 22.11 year cycle is averaged so you might have 4 to 8 year difference in any one period not very reliable.Next cycle to start 1988 peak in 2002 .I guess the proof will be the Gold pudding. Happy Trails.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 10:21
B.B. Fisher: Great charts. They bear an eery resemblance in both time and value. ..... Another eye opener is the Dow plotted in constant dollars, from the advent of the Federal Reserve system to the present time. It gives lie to the concept of long term buy and hold.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 10:00
2weeks Hollywood_classics>(Hollywood_classics):
King Kong was brought back to the Big Apple, chained in disgrace. Captured, tamed. An explosive force, extinguished. Gold is dead. Ahh but if it snaps its fetters, who can contain it?

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 10:00
Bob @...need money crisis in short-term or decay of CB gold story>(@...need money crisis in short-term or decay of CB gold story):
The chart that juxtaposed the '22- '29 stk mkt against the '87- '97 run illustrates a pattern that suggests the current mkt is doomed by history to lose about one-third of its value.

Although we are overdue for a 'healthy' correction ( 10% minimum ) I don't think we will see a similar '87 re-run. The missing ingredient from the '87 mkt was the IT sector. Sure, INTL, MSFT, CPQ, DELL were all there in '87 but they - and their cousins - did not own as much market share as they now command.

Certainly, the IT industry is not immune from a serious fallout. Indeed, the IT industry has a more volatile price history than the broader market.

The story behind the BULL story is this:

The U.S. lead IT revolution has spear-headed a proposperity wave that coincides with the Internet and great expectations of hardware and software demand. ( The area of e-business is just beginning to bear fruit. )

This wave has affected the major DOW stocks that are not IT. The story suggests that the non-IT S&P companies have benefited from the productivity enhancements of IT solutions and this translates in lower labor ( expenses ) and higher earnings.

The I.T. revolution is the greatest non-combative victory of the United States in history. Nobody quite understands the significance of the U.S. global IT industry and its reach into every sector of economic. The U.S. entertainment industry is one benefactor of IT and it ( entertainment industry ) is the world standard. You can now watch Santa Barbara and Dallas on Russian T.V. The Red Empire was defeated not by nuclear threat but the invasion of U.S. Information technology and entertainment enterprises - we could also add the Marlborough Man and Cocal Cola but get the message.

To keep this story alive the U.S. financial system has tio remain liquid. The Japanese are key linch-pins to the continuing BULL since they finance a great deal of the US govt debt that results in cheap capital or low interest rates. ( The Japs had long-ago dumped their gold to invest in the U.S. financial system to provide a trump card during endless bilateral trade and balance of payments sessions. The Japs hold up the U.S. system and Washington kills smoke-stack jobs while satisfied by the fast-growth U.S. IT jugernaut and the high-skilled job creation and wealth accumulation these global empires generate for U.S. treasury.

So the productivity gains from the IT revolution and the low interest rates are the stuff that make this BULL continue. The only other condition is the demonitization of gold.

The Gold Cartel ( CBs ) have told Mr. Mkt. that they no longer wish to hold the yellow metal and instead prefer the paper mined by the ( principally ) U.S. govt. This is in line with Japanese bilateral fiscal policy with the US govt. The world financial order has been transfornmed from the Bretton Woods gold-backed system to a multilateral currency and govt paper system with the U.S. economic empire nominated as the presiding judge and arbitrar of global economic prosperity.

The backdrop for this is a renewed neo-conservative fiscal thrust ( post-Regan/Thatcher ) in major G7 nations that translates into increased pressure to reduce operating deficits and public debt. The CBs ( x-USA ) are encouraged to rally around the new U.S. dominated financial order 'and' operate more business-like. We may argue on the specifics and the statistics but nobody really cares. The story marches on.

Since the CBs have increased gold supply they permitted the speculative demand for gold to increase by a multiple of this supply. The shorts command the market. There is a paper overburden in the gold derivatives market in the short-term ( under one year ) .

The best thing to happen to gold would be an event that shakes the confidence in U.S. currency. I do not think that the demise of the BULL mkt will do this. I recall that the FED pumped liquidity into the 1987 market crash ( or, at least, did not need to interceed 'much'. )

The medium - term solution for better ( higher ) gold prices would be the eventual decay of the CB gold dump story.

Although I expect, as do many here, a Mr. Mkt. correction I do not think we will see a material bump-up in gold prices unless coincident events in the U.S. cash markets and the arrest of the CB gold dump story are concurrent.


Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 09:57
vronsky THE DINES LETTER (July 14, 1997)>(THE DINES LETTER (July 14, 1997)):
Of Japan's $220 billion in foreign-currency reserves, 76% is now in US dollars. Nippon legislator says Japan’s gold reserves far too low. Dine’s ALL-GOLD REPORT has interesting insights:

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 09:56
oldhand Thanks! >(Thanks! ):
Crystal Ball,
Thank you muchly for your post re Bigcharts. It's always nice to discover a new web site of interest. This is the type of information sharing that makes this a great forum.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 09:53
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
D.A. Belated congratulations, it used to be common, almost traditional, for a new parent to buy a gold or silver coin in the date of birth for the newborn. If each of the approximately 145 million newborns had such a gift stowed away for them that would be what, two years mine production? Perhaps even the approx. 115 million third world births could afford a silver coin at these prices. This is a custom that needs promoted!

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 09:50
To all,
Learn some lesson from recent incident...NEVER TOO GREEDY!
Short from us 339 per oz until now.Should have covered at 315 per oz, and take my profit,but i did'nt!NOW,the metal rebound to 321 and more the disadvantage at currency at exchage rate,i make a bit !STILL i learn a lots in my future investment...great i feel!by the way some news from south east asia..check this...
happy trading to all

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 09:15
Milhouse Forward Selling>(Forward Selling):

Vieserre and Ted Butler :

Thanks for your explanations on the intricacies of forward selling. I haven't had a chance to digest your posts as yet, but I'll come back to you later if I have further questions. BTW Ted - the notes are the key to understanding any company financial report. I always read the notes first - if I don't like or understand what I read in the notes, I don't bother reading any further.

Cheers, Milhouse

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 09:11
Lan Man TimeToRecallUSGChips>(TimeToRecallUSGChips):
The truth is revealed! In trying to determine why the usg monthly economic numbers
never seem to jive, I remembered about that Pentium fiasco not so long ago. You know,
that mathematical firmware bug that Intel admitted to a couple of years ago? So after
all it turns out that they really are trying to tell the truth, its just that their
computers keep messing up the numbers. Think I will e-mail AGrove and remind him that
his largest customer, due to red tape, never got around to swapping out those defective
pentium chips. Also, maybe he should contact JPL and get them some replacement chips,
then they can get that rover roving again.

Poor KHayes of CNBC, no wonder she always gets confused when trying to interpret all those statistics...

Ever wonder why ASmith of UBS keeps talking down gold? I KNOW it has nothing to do
with the fact of UBS getting busted shredding all those WW2 paper records, all those
Nazi gold dealings etc., right? After all, that gold is no longer worth anything,
it has been demonitzed blah blah blah.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 09:10
Roebear Trying@HersheyPa.>(Trying@HersheyPa.):
bb fisher: Charts=Wonderful!
Rich: Agree with your 08:14, emotion+investment=oil+water. Still a tall order especially as we must remember our perceptions are biased. Pontius Pilate said What is truth while Truth stood in front of him ( my bias, perhaps, but a succinct example ) . We must be true to our Giants, when we stand on their shoulders and report what we see. Too much emotion and ego will cause us to fumble at the truth, like the blind men the elephant, and tell the sensation and not the true sense. Few things have taught me this as well as this forum and my foray into the still precious metals.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 08:41
Roebear @Bob A>(@Bob A):
When Will Rogers said Well, all I know is just what I read in the papers intelligent people did not take him literally. Neither should PM investors take what we now read in the papers trashing gold literally. Got to look between the lines for the figure of speech ( and shady figures ) .

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 08:30
D.A. having.none>(having.none):

Alas I am but a poor speculator with narry a single ounce of the yellow stuff. It is my earnest desire to become a gold bug so that I may share a kindred spirit with those bask in the warm yellow glow of elemental passion. Try as I might I could find no one here willing to ease me into this fraternity. It now appears that I will have to do it on my own. Perhaps it is better this way. I will venture out into the world and buy some on my own. Today will be the day for I can wait no longer. Before the day is out, I shall begin my very own hoard. My wife has taken it upon herself to begin investing in common stocks for the future education of my 14 month old son. I will choose a different vehicle.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 08:24
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home):
Front: Related to your comment, someone asked Grocho Marx if he smoked after sex. His reply was I don't know. I never checked.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 08:21
panda @>(@):
Rich -- NEVER meet a margin call!

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 08:14
Front To Cap n Kev>(To Cap n Kev):
CapnKev: ( :- )

Last night you said :

next thing the'll tell us is
sex causes cancer,not cigarettes

I want you to know that you're mistaken. Sex does not cause


Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 08:14
Rich none@here>(none@here):
I have been browsing this conference for some time now. It seems that the participants only want gold to rise in value. It is dangerous to trade the markets if you WANT a particular outcome. Make money no matter what the market is doing.
Also I see that there seems to be a desire for the DOW to tumble. Check your long-term charts. There is no correlation with a falling DOW and a rising gold. When equities tumble, people liquidate all assets ( including gold ) to meet margins.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 08:08
bb fisher grab@your >(grab@your ):
bob a:

i presume you are jesting with us. otherwise i hope you are limber, cause you're sense of timing is going to get you bent over log.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 08:08
Mike Sheller dizzy@such heights>(dizzy@such heights):
BB FISHER: The last time I got so dizzy was hanging out the door of a Huey strapped to an M60! The old Chinese saying, often misquoted, goes A picture is worth 10,000 words. Your juxtaposed Dow charts are worth at least 100,000 words. Indeed, there is nothing more to be said.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 08:04
Speed @yawn>(@yawn):
Panda: Fidelity Select Electronics up 5% since last Monday! I am irrationally exuberant. I also have my eyes firmly fixed on the exit.

Bob: Keep some powder dry. Gold is up $5 from its low last week. North American mining stocks up 3-5%. I feel your pain, but the bottom may well be in.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 07:58
Bob A opinion>(opinion):
I'm now negative on the outlook for gold and will sell. Plat and pall. look good so I will stay with them. Looking back over the last few years I should have bought common stocks, live and learn.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 07:57
panda @Pac Rim>(@Pac Rim):
Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see who calls up whom. Do the Japanese bail out Thailand? Malaysia? Phillippines? Themselves? I wonder how much better gold looks it terms of stabile exchange rates than T-Bonds? Meanwhile, the S.A. gold mine stories continue to be downbeat. I wonder how much of this has to do with the current NUM negotiations? Ah, never mind. Gold is worthless. Give me some DELL or CPQ! :- ) )

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 07:48
panda @?>(@?):
bb fisher -- I loved your early 1900's chart vs. the current '90s Dow. At the rate the Euro bourses are going, one to two percent a day on the DAX alone, the lava and ash should be coming forth from this volcano soon. After all, one percent a day for 250 days would return something on the order of twelve times your money in one year! Credit bubble, nahhh! It's called investing!

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 07:43
George Cole blowoff>(blowoff):
August gold now up 80 cents believe it or not.

Widespread expectations of a final stock market blowoff this fall could be the hook that keep most from selling during the very real blowoff going on right now. Stocks more likely to be plunging this fall than blowing off further.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 07:27
Crystal Ball TechnicallySpeaking>(TechnicallySpeaking):
DBC's free trial period is over for tech analysis charts. For another site try...

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 06:48
New@That Ihave@question>(Ihave@question):
Is that true that the US governement holds only about 1 Troy ounce per US inhabitant?
And Japan 1/10 of an ounce? while the Swiss hodl about 10 T.O per person?
Thank you.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 05:26
The Last Goldbug FT>(FT):

The London Financial Times reported that Merrill Lynch went from 24th to 3rd in FOREX trade. Now I am begining to understand why some believe they are using Ted Arnold to push down gold in support of currencies.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 05:25
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):

Dear Sir,
You may or may not be aware that we sold our only production asset ( ie 50%
of the Gold Mines of Coolgardie- GMC ) and we were paid in March. We now
have approximately $12 million in cash and no debt. We are currently
seeking new projects and the fall in gold price is to our advantage as many
projects struggle.
Our timing in moving out of GMC now seems perfect and your company has a
new management team since last July and we are optimistic about the future.
Unfortunately our share price has fallen with the rest of the market but
for example, Herald Resources who were our JV partner and who we sold our
50% to were at approximately $1.80 12 months ago and are now $0.55.
I trust that answers your query.

Mal Smartt
Chief Financial Officer

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 03:04
RJ Pardon the sacrilege>(Pardon the sacrilege):

Donald @ 18:04 - Did I misread? Did you speak of the Golden Rue?

He that owns the gold, rues.............

Perhaps not.............. My mistake.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 02:55
RJ Not again.......?>(Not again.......?):
D. A. - You seem like a gentleman and, as such, I should treat you so. It seems that you’ve got an oz-o-gold burning a hole in your pocket, or do you want to lock in a wager before the stuff is worthless? Seems like an awful lot of folks feel as you and would like to dump their gold as soon as possible. Well, I didn’t just fall of the mine cart, you know. Gotta’ get up pretty early in the morning to pull a fast one on this poor old gold peddler ( about 8:30 am New York time ) . Its not that I shouldn’t take you gold, its that I won’t. If I may paraphrase; Your gold’s no good here mister. Not much good anywhere else either. I had a 1oz Austrian Vienna Philharmonic gold coin in my hand and I was walking it across the backs of my fingers as I read your challenge. First you would bet against 325, now 300. What’s next, 299? Then maybe 298? No, I can’t take gold from a man who loves it so. A man who would overlook its plethora of shortcomings and still hold it close to heart. No, I will not take your gold. For, alas, I do admire the spirit behind the challenge. Go good into to the morrow, comrade, for the day will hold wonders.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 02:41
Auric @>(@):

bb fisher @ 02:30--Just when I had given up on Kitco for the night...That chart woke me up! That should evoke a few comments. Thanks.

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 02:30
bb fisher have@ a look>(have@ a look):
this chart is of the dow jones from 1987-1997 and the second chart is the dow jones from 1919-1932 ( expressed in 1997 dollars ) . otherwise they are self explanatory.

Blowoff in the autumn?

it sure looks like the blowoff is happening before our eyes NOW!

Date: Mon Jul 14 1997 02:07
Test @test>(@test):


Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 23:59
Earl talk to ya in the AM gotta get some zzz's
just got back from jersey shore & I'm a hurtin puppy.
later man.
ps G'night All

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 23:47
Vieserre home>(home):
Earl: If you did not catch it, read the post earlier on the comment by Shultz who stated he is bullish on gold and that there is an Asian syndicate which has been shorting the market and is now read to take a position on the long side. BT Syndicated

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 23:39
Vieserre The Contango>(The Contango):
EARL: The Producer sells at the spot plus contango. The Contango is the postive difference between the spot market gold price and the forward price. It is often expressed as an interest rate and is the difference between inter-bank deposit rates and the gold lending rates. Presumably, the reason for the high prices some of these producers are showing is that they entered into the forward position when spot gold was at a much higher price. Otherwise, I cannot explain it.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 23:27
Vieserre: He then charges the producer the contango for accepting delivery on the forward date. ...... Isn't the producer selling for spot price and if so, how is the producer able to report the sale at the higher forward price?.... ie, $420 sales price, during a period when gold has languished well below $400.

The effort to better understand this dreadful business in really appreciated. My hat is off, to you, Ted and Millhouse for extending it.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 23:10
hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhhhhhh>(hhhhhhhhhhhhhhh):
To more Sup.

It probably would be a little higher just as the money mrkt funds pay alittle less than the total of their cupons. alos, there would be a default risk...remember 1934

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 23:03
Japan: Your week has begun. A few moments ago gold was still down $0.60 on the evening. Either begin scratching gravel or join BT in the corner. ....... ( :- ) )

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 22:59
Kap'nKev: Corn comments are in your mail.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 22:42
more supposition @ westcoast>(@ westcoast):
somebody play devil's advocate. If US govt paper was 100% redemable
in gold wouldn't the interest rate be around 1 to 2% like it used to be when the dollar was redemable and similiar to current lending by COB of gold @1 1/2% ? WOW! what a saving . imagine all the US bonds, notes and t bills borrowing costing so little? We could easily balance the budget or send a flotilla of space ships to capture the universe.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 22:26
Vieserre Forward Sales>(Forward Sales):
MILHOUSE: If I may add to Ted's comments, who knows more of this than I, on your question on Forward Sales. A typical way a forward sale works is that if a producer wants to lock in a future price, he has to find someone to buy gold in the future. But, unlike other commodities - such as copper or lumber where someone will actually need the commodity, ie to build a project, a year or more from now - no one really needs gold for future delivery. So the producer turns to a dealer in gold. Because the gold market is ordinarily in deficit, the dealer can buy the gold for future delivery and immediately sell it in the spot market. He then charges the producer the contango for accepting delivery on the forward date. It is important to recognize that the reason this can happen is that the gold market is usually in such a huge deficit that dealers can sell into a spot market. When such business becomes brisk, dealers may need to borrow gold from the banks to make such sales and thus they are effectively making short sales. When this happens, these dealers may take a big risk as bank lending rates may be on a 3 to 6 month basis while producers may be selling forward on a 1 to 3 year basis. It is also important to recognize that as interest rates come down there is less of an economic incentive for a producer to sell forward, assuming of course gold is not plunging in price. Forward sales may also take place OTC, in the form of gold leases ( which I understand has lost popularity by producers ) or in the futures markets. And there are various hybrids that have been developed. Many argue that forward sales do not contribute to a fall in price over the longer term as the transaction after being closed does not add to supply. It would also seem that since these forward sales are on-going, price at any one particular point of time wll be influenced as to whether more of such sales are being instituted or covered by producers

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 22:13
Nick the Greek @ the races>(@ the races):

Investing in currencies and gold is like playing the races______Yer gotta know the trainer and the jockey.
Right Andy?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 21:40
capnkev @gottabridgetosellyawantit>(@gottabridgetosellyawantit):
Nomercy, DISINFORMATION,in its truest thing the'll tell us is
sex causes cancer,not cigarettes

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 21:35
puzzled @westcoast>(@westcoast):
ted butler: tnx for your insightful response of 20:30. all these gold shenanigans smell very fishy and gold and gold mines are a long ways from any fish market. the truth will out, we just have to keep the faith and live long enough.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 21:32
capnkev @ouch>(@ouch):
got TOO many bumps on da head now, got me a helmet!!
Earl, check out stat on OLD CROP BEANS leemm know what ya tink

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 21:26
Jack Colunist Stephen Wyatt of AFR must have been inebriated>(Colunist Stephen Wyatt of AFR must have been inebriated):

Or was he celebrating at a booze party, when he wrote:

To really polish it off all the gold market now needs is for the Sojournor Mars Rover to discover that Mars is littered with more gold than the vaults of the world central banks. And its possible - Mars is a big planet.

He wins the 1997 Bad Breath Award, hand down.

See post at ( 16:14 ) by Scotty, for the article.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 21:14
nomercy the slide continues>(the slide continues):
EBN shows down $1.25 to $320.80
..climax of arguments against gold could this be the ultimate indicator of contrarian timing?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 21:10
Donald @Home>(@Home):
EBN has the Dutch Guilder down 2.2%. Is that early morning Asian trading or a Friday close?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 20:59
nomercy possible crisis in South Africa>(possible crisis in South Africa): they push down...crisis begin to emerge

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 20:58
Japan @ the golden moment>(@ the golden moment):
To all..... This week you will see who's buying and let the fireworks begin!! We buy at any price now!!!!

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 20:57
Donald @Home>(@Home):
YO HO HO: The Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, is rented from the Cubans with a 100 year lease, payable in gold, and that is exactly how we pay it.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 20:35
yo ho ho @a bottle of rum>(@a bottle of rum):
An interesting note: until the early 1980’s, it was illegal for a shipping company to pay a merchant sailor in anything but gold coin. The gold coin requirement was because shipping companies ( some ) had paid their sailors in company script which frequently dropped in value or was worthless. This law was on the books but not enforced.

an ex sailor

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 20:30
ted butler forward sales>(forward sales):
Milhouse re your @2:05, also Puzzled re your 16:08 -

I think the big misunderstanding regarding gold loans/forward sales is to assume from the outset that they are a legitimate form of transaction and that any difficulty in reconciling them with common sense is the fault of the person trying to understand them and not with the transaction itself. After all, they have been around for 15+ years and are performed by legitimate entities in the world of finance, mining and central banking. I say if you look at these transactions with no preconceived notions of who is involved and how long thet've been around, and just concentrate on whether they make sense - you will reach a startingly different conclusion.

Gold loans and forward sales could not exist without each other. The CBs could not loan metal unless they had some remote promise of repayment - that's where the mining companies come in, who else could make such a promise? The mining cos could not be induced to sell such obscene amounts of future production unless they were given some preferential promises to do so. That is why gold loans and forward sales burst upon the scene simultaneously 15 years ago. To think that forward sales are just another form of legitimate hedging defies logic. After all, there have always been bona fide futures and derivatives available to mining cos before loans/forward sales existed and to this day - why is it only gold and silver ( some Pa and Pt with disasterous results ) that miners hedge for years in the future? Why not copper or zinc or oil? Is it because gold and silver miners are so convinced that the respective price is so high that they need to lock in the unusually attractive prices? Of course not. They are being bribed by the lure of either cash up front or much more attractive terms than would be available in the alternative legitimate hedging markets.

The undeniable fact is that in every single loan/forward sale actual metal is sold up front to generate cash. That is the problem - why does cash metal have to be sold to effect a hedge? It's killing the price and setting the stage for a disorderly market on the upside. Where in any other hedging transaction, for any other commodity is the actual commodity sold first? It is stupid beyond belief. Time will reveal this whole loan/forward sale business to be the farce and fiasco it really is

Milhouse, I'm glad you have no problem in reading the financials to see just what a mine's forward sales position is - I can't get by all the footnotes. I'm with Glenn, they're hedged when it's going down and not hedged when it's going up - I guess that's why the earnings are so good.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 20:30
nomercy they cleaned up on Friday...and>(they cleaned up on Friday...and):
...funds seem to be at work again...they cleaned up on Friday ( option exp ) and are ready to push down. EBN, now shows down $.95 to $321.10 How far?
RJ it seems that DA's challenge requires a response! remember $275 its in the bag, right?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 20:27
Kap'nKev: Fasten seatbelts? That can only mean we are headed for additional clear air turbulence. With our collective heads bouncing on the overhead storage compartments. Eh? ..... ( :- )

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 20:18
capnkev @enough>(@enough):
YO Earl, fasten seatbelts.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 20:11
D.A. market.making>(market.making):

You old dog, was that you driving down those PM's? I'll bet you're just itching to place a little ole wager with moi. What dya say? 360 before 300? One itty bitty ounce? Come on, make me a gold bug.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 20:06
D.A. home.again>(home.again):

A man leaves for a week of R&R and returns to find the gold market in shambles. What gives? All you guys get short or something?

Haven't had time to catch up on all my reading, but a cursory look at the markets shows that those stalwart German central bankers apparently are quite happily devaluing their currency. Seems to be the way of the world. If your economy is a little soft then just mark down your labor costs by devalueing. Looks also like the currency speculators are not enamored with the gold sale by the Aussies.

I know this is already old news, but it does appear that the Hashman is making good on his promises. Over the last month the Fed's holding of foreign CB debt has dropped almost 20 billion dollars. Coincidentally ( ? ) the currency in circulation numbers have jumped over 7 billion dollars in the same time period. If this pace of printing were to sustain itself over a year we would be talking more than a 20% increase in the currency outstanding account over a years time. Nothing like monetizing the ole debt. Looks to me like the Feds have it all figured out. Keep publishing bogus inflation numbers, drive the price of gold way down to reinforce the thesis, then print scads of $100 bills when no one is looking and monetize the debt. I read where the Germans were joining in the game by selling off their 'strategic' petroleum reserves. I guess this comes under the heading of strategy.

Seems like the Wall St. folks are looking for a speculative blowoff in the fall. Can't wait to see what that looks like. Lets see, the market is up nearly 30% in 3 months and this is just the setup for the really big run. Looks like 10000 in October.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 19:48
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Panda: No. I want a parachute.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 19:33
WW @NE>(@NE):
The repeated focus on gold is that they NEED to drive it down or the bubble will burst. Any stability in gold given the current onslaught and we are on our way!

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 19:31
Paul Volker forecast>(forecast):
Lurker2: The markets will fluctuate.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 19:24
cherokee @gotta-get-more-insurance!!!!!!!!>(@gotta-get-more-insurance!!!!!!!!):
moon-man @0:24----

i agree with that 100%. my strike vacillates around the 400 level.
the exact strike purchased, depends upon the financial capacity
of the account. with gold trending lower, the strike follows suit.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 19:17
Amnesty @just for the hell of it>(@just for the hell of it):
A$ is now trading at 73.98.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 19:07
panda @>(@):
Do you want to buy stock in a company that has never made a profit, and probably won't for the next three to five years? Well this IPO double quick enough. You want to talk about irrational .....

Glenn -- If people are willing to pay for less than nothing, why should losing money bother them? :- ) )
Something must break in this gold market, how long can the mines go on producing at a loss? The derivatives market ( futures ) seem to be disconnected with this reality. I think you're right Glenn, when you say that the funds are driving the selling in gold. When will this stop? When somebody yells, I want my gold NOW! That will be the reality check.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 18:50
panda @>(@):
Donald -- Do you want a saw? :- ) )

Earl -- Isn't turn-about fair play?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 18:31
Panda: That is exactly what the British required of the Chinese in the last century. All Chinese purchases were to be settled in gold while, at the same time, British accounts were settled in paper. Do you think that the Chinese have forgotten?

IF the Chinese should suddenly upset the world's monetary and trade apple cart; will the accrued, Chinese, losses be of such magnitude as to outweigh the ultimate benefit to them? In the process, some weight must be given to the psychic satisfaction of righting some old wrongs .......... and living well is among the best of revenge.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 18:30
Donald @Home>(@Home):
LURKER2: I always end up wishing I hadn't done this. Gold up all week, XAU breaks 95, new countries devalue. Japan calls for Asian meeting. US stocks in trouble 3 out of 5 trading days. End week on down side. Tech stocks lead the slide. How far out on a limb can you get a guy before it breaks?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 18:29
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
I don't mean to beat this thing to death, but according to the COT reports haven't the commercials been net long almost every week since Oct96 while the large specs have been net short the entire time? Somebody is loosing money in the commercial world.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 18:25
Vronsky--Is it possible that all the new visitors to the Gold Eagle website could be the result of a new inlcusion of the site on a popular search engine or a recent reference on a oft read Japanese site? Just my naturally pragmatic thought process.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 18:22
Lurker2 The Kitco version of The McLaughlin Group>(The Kitco version of The McLaughlin Group):

Just for fun, any predictions for this week? Fireworks? Ho-hum? What will be the biggest story in the markets?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 18:12
Jack Devaluations>(Devaluations):

I have convinced myself that this whole New Era thing is based primarily on competitive devaluations.
What happens when a relatively low wage country, with reasonably productive people devaluates it money?
Big business quickly open's up new plants there.
The currency speculator's convert their fund's and place their ( bets ) monies in those countries, receiving high rates of return plus potential currency appreciation. These are big players, who generally do not lose.
If any danger occurs, they conveniently start rumors to protect themselves. All they require is word from a seemingly reputable source and the public follows suit.
I believe, that time spent attacking this ponzi scheme would be more productive for gold.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 18:04
Donald @Home>(@Home):
PANDA: The Golden Rule still applies. He who has the gold makes the rules Yes such a thing is possible. A similar threat was made by the Saudis in 1973-74. They said oil should be paid for with a basket of currencies that included a gold portion. It never went anywhere. Did they get the AWACS planes instead?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 17:50
panda @the.dark.side>(@the.dark.side):
Scotty ( Fresh Bad News ) : Yup, there's real fear out there. Are 'they' dumb enough to increase their shrill attack on gold as the Pac Rim currencies fall apart?

To All:
I have been thinking about the Barron's article, as have some of you, having already posted your thoughts on it. But let's try this on for size.
Gold slides more, and currencies destabilize some more. The gold sales continue, but who is the un-named buyer ( s ) ? Ponder, if you will, who is accumulating the gold and why. Notice, also, that Russia and China were convieniantly left out of the Barron's gold table. Now let's say that an Asian cartel has amassed this horde of gold. The West, being sophisticated :- ) , laughes at the fools who accumulate the 'barbarous relic'. Then one fine day, a trading tiff occurs. Now, we know that could never happen.... Then the Asian block gets tough about import/export stuff and its terms of payment. As the Western CBs fiddle with 'monetary policy', the Asians say, we want to be paid in REAL terms. What ifs are coming here... What if they are willing to eat some large losses on U.S. debt obligations? What if they demand payment in gold, because they didn't get what they wanted at the 'bargining table' regarding trade, etc.? Then they could say, we will trade with those who will pay us in gold?

Why fight a war when you can have an economic war with no death and physical destruction to clean up?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 17:44
aurator @The Dentists' Waiting Room>(@The Dentists' Waiting Room):
Amazingly, the following exerpt was found in the NZ Edition of Readers Digest July 1997. I am unsure whether this is bullish for gold, appearing in such an august publication. Comments?

The US gold standard .... was eventually abolished in 1971. The high inflation, tumultuous currency upsets and gyrating interest rates since have shown what happens when money loses its moorings.

Indeed, many economist think the gold standard should be reintroduced. Pegging currency to gold has proved the only stable method of determining what goods are worth, explains French economist Paul Fabra. No satisfactory substitute has ever been devised.

Wellington-based economist Rufus Dawe agrees: I think every economist favours a gold standard in principle because then you have a constant that you can measure everything against. It just needs someone to introduce it.

Ironically, the very discipline of the gold standard is why some politicians oppose it. Without such control, leaders can wage their wars, pad their payrolls and expand their bureaucracies by just printing more money. You can't print gold. The words of the German poet Goethe seem as true today as when he wrote them nearly two centuries ago: Everything depends on gold.

Steve @Perth Perhaps Treasurer Costello's Readers Digest subscription has lapsed

So who's going to be the someone who introduces a gold standard

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 17:19
Jack Gold sales>(Gold sales):

Are their overlay charts available, that show how the currency of a country that sold gold in the past; reacted after the sale?
Such charts may show real sentiment.
Japan; although she talked about US Government sales, also talked about gold purchases; and the yen strenghtened.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 17:19
ANDY SMITH everywhere>(everywhere):
Hope it wasn't meant for me!

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 17:06
WwW @New England>(@New England):
Andy Smith must spend 24 hrs a day bashing gold. He must be getting a little worried or his employers surely are. I suggest we send a donation to UBS FBO Andy Smith to hang out at one of the local Biere Stubes and have 5 or 6 Henningers on us so he can chill out and clear his thought processes.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 17:04
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NOMERCY: I have been working since I was 6 1/2 years old when I had a paper route. I am now semi-retired, I work when I damn well please. But if we have a crisis in Bermuda that needs my assistance I will do it for a dollar a year! ( No heavy lifting of gold bars please )

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 16:55

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 16:40
nomercy ...don't margin...>(...don't margin...): could work...if the gold longs don't use margin, but obtain financing ( if they have to ) outside the brokerage houses, they can withstand the sanguine attacks from the funds...its one way of outwaiting they will continue to shake the tree' the present environment is giving them the space to devour...
Scotty....Aussies news will persist on being negative, they are protecting Costello & co...
In the long term...they lose!

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 16:22
nomercy Job openings for Kitco's alumnis>(Job openings for Kitco's alumnis):
Donald I followed your posted URL re: Gold drops in Thailand, and read the article in the business section, Local Gold prices lose luster as global woes mount and came to the conclusion that the many experts of Kitco addicts' should have no problems in securing high post positions in many of the high ranking world Finance and Business posts. Costello in Australia, now Jitti Tangsithpakdi, chairman of Thailand's Gold Merchant Association, is also in peril as he's quoted in the forementioned article Jitti said gold prices in the international market are
projected to hit rock bottom in 12 years, due to
unfavorable economic conditions, which is
undermining the purchasing power of markets around
the world.

Many major gold mines in Africa have ceased their
operations as they can no longer tolerate the
situation, Jitti was quoted as saying.

He explained that African gold mines had been selling
its gold at $318 to one ounce ( 28.35 grams ) while
the minimum cost for mining the gold was higher, at
$350 to one ounce. .


Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 16:14
Scotty Fresh Bad News>(Fresh Bad News):
Another negative gold article from down-under in their Monday Financial Press:

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 16:08
Puzzled @ westcoast>(@ westcoast):
With all the talk of forward and borrowed gold selling a lot has to be explained. With many mines selling future production doesn't that mean that a 1 to 4 years worth of gold mining is dumped on the market? And with this as yet unmined gold hitting the market the price drops? And when the price drops how does the contract maker make up the difference
when he himself has caused the drop? Does he then short gold futures knowing the price will drop? Very confusing.
So we then have a situation where unmined and borrowed gold hits the market causing an apparent surplus and the price goes down but in reality
the gold supply is the same. HELP!!!

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 16:01
vronsky THE DINES LETTER (July 14, 1997)>(THE DINES LETTER (July 14, 1997)):
Of Japan's $220 billion in foreign-currency reserves, 76% is now in US dollars. Nippon legislator says Japan’s gold reserves far too low. Dine’s ALL-GOLD REPORT has interesting insights:

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 15:53
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day comparison and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 15:49
nomercy a Canadian view>(a Canadian view):
Bill Corrigan, Technical Analyst of a Canadian paper, Toronto Star, seems to feel that next week will tell the tale...

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 15:49
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Gold drops in Tailand in spite of Baht devaluation.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 15:39
Donald @Home>(@Home):
South Korea prepares for North Korean Attack.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 15:26
Nomercy: Interesting stuff. Canada, Belgium, Austria and the Netherlands have been the primary sellers ...... and yet ..... the bottom line remains little changed. Some 50 tons net change from total holdings. Big deal. The CBs must be just swapping it around and calling it a sale.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 15:20
Glenn AU>(AU):
I remember Barick Gold stating that they lifted a good portion of there hedge as gold was going over $400 in Jan 96 now they say that they have the largest hedging program in the industry. Is the company filled with Gold miners or is it a Shell Company filled with a bunch of traders
I question whether or not a company like that can move in and out of the market with such a large position and be continuously successfull. Are they planning to lift 6 years worth of hedge at the exact bottom Perhaps if they are this good they such forget Gold mining and open up a Gold trading fund! By the sound of it perhaps I would invest all my money in it and quit trading on the floor. If the operate a pure hedge then they will be protected all the way down and they will be selling ( And loosing potential profits ) all the way back up.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 15:00
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Australia Morning News: Currency Turmoil Spreads

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 14:52
nomercy how much more? insulting our intelligence?>(how much more? insulting our intelligence?):
...funds have picked their spot...on cue...currency gyrations...inflated dow, closing in on another, psycological top '8000', which always causes nervousness...spin doctors intensify attack on barbaric relic....same couple of analysts being quoted, time after time....same newstories being disseminated...reminds of war pamphlets being parachuted down to enemy...we're constantly reminded of Central Bank sales made or proposed...yet statistics, see table below, published this week in Barron's indicate constant and reasonably ...stable holdings...notice how they updated the table to reflect the RBA sale as of July 3rd. Interesting that some the Asian rim countries, Russia , IMF holdings are 'consolidated' or not updated as of July 3rd...
...let the shorts get a little more greedy...we're waiting!
Feature StoryBARRON'S Online
Central Banks Take a Dim View of Gold

thin rule
The selling of gold from central-bank coffers since 1981 has coincided with the gradual decline of the gold price, a measure of faltering status of the yellow metal as a store of value.

1990 1992 1994 1996 1997*

Troy ounces ( millions )
United States 261.9 261.8 261.7 261.7 261.7
Canada 14.8 9.9 3.9 3.1 3.1
Australia 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 2.6
Japan 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2
Austria 20.4 19.9 18.3 10.7 10.1
Belgium 30.2 25 25 15.3 15.3
Denmark 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7
France 81.9 81.9 81.9 81.9 81.9
Germany 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2
Greece 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5
Italy 66.7 66.7 66.7 66.7 66.7
Netherlands 43.9 43.9 34.8 34.8 27.1
Norway 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Portugal 15.8 16.1 15 16.1 14
Spain 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6
Sweden 6.1 6.1 6.1 4.8 4.8
Switzerland 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3
United Kingdom 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.4 18.4
Subtotal 793.1 782.4 764.3 746.1 730.4
blue line
TOTAL 1,143.80 1129.9 1115.8 1104.9 1099.5
( Official Reserves )
blue line
*As of April 30
**As of July 3
Source: International Monetary Fund, CPM Group

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 13:50
Crystal Ball @ Spirit's Hall>(@ Spirit's Hall):
Perhaps the legions of gold traders and investors, are demoralized now;
Perhaps by late summer they will feel defeated, once and for all.
But, perchance, by year's end, there will be
A free-for-all.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 13:47
2BR02B? @coosbay>(@coosbay):
Cmax- who the new 'mega-political' powers will be.

Interesting factoid come across, if true. 40% of the world's
tower cranes are presently located in Shanghai. A power center rising,

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 13:45
Ray: Per your request. Here is a press release dated July 7. Lifted from the Barrick website.

Investment Advisory

Toronto, Ontario
Investor Contacts:
Belle Mulligan
Senior Vice
Investor Relations
Tel ( 416 ) 307-7442
Fax ( 416 ) 861-0727

Sandra Scott
Investor Relations
Tel ( 416 ) 307-7472
Fax ( 416 ) 861-0727

All Amounts in United States Dollars

Toronto, July 7, 1997 . . . Barrick’s disciplined financial policies are
protecting investors from the present turbulence in the gold market. While the Company is concerned about the impact of the current decline in gold prices on the industry, Barrick believes it does not reflect the long-term fundamental supply/demand factors for the market.

“Barrick is fully protected with the largest hedge position and the lowest operating costs in the industry. Our cash flow, earnings and dividends are unaffected through the year 2000 despite the present
turmoil,” said Peter Munk, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

Barrick’s hedge position ensures a minimum average price of $420 per ounce for its production, with cash operating costs of under $200 per ounce.

The Company has the strongest balance sheet and financial position in the industry with operating cash flow of $500 million annually, a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 0.12 to l, and cash of over $200 million. Barrick’s credit is the only one rated “A” of the world’s gold producers.

Barrick is listed on the world’s leading stock exchanges and is part of the S & P 500 and TSE 35. It has the largest market capitali-zation of any gold producer in the world.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 13:43
auroelf- thanks! I have him on tape with his comments on CNBC and thought all in all they were pretty positive. Especially on his comments
that times like these are when creation of REAL WEALTH is possible. He is talkin about accumulating the mining shares close to the bottom.
I do not want any of his because they are hedged but you get the point.

Tally Ho

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 13:31
auroelf quoting again, old news>(quoting again, old news):
Ray: In the Wall Street Journal Wednesday 7/9/97, Peter Munk said he wouldn't be surprised if gold dropped another $40 an ounce during the uncertainty surrounding central banks.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 13:25
auroelf ..>(..):
All: “Why has the U.S. - fountainhead of antigold sentiment - NOT SOLD any of its gold while encouraging its allies to sell?” At some point on this forum, someone opined that there is a law ( custom? regulation? ) prohibiting the Fed from selling US gold reserves. Is there in fact such a prohibition? Must they petition congress first? Or is there no impediment to selling after all? Anyone know for sure? Tort, where do we look in the law? Can you check this on Lexis or in the US Code?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 13:16
Would somebody please tell me where the comments by Peter Munk were stated that got everyone up in the air. Was it the comments on CNBC or elsewhere? Thanks!

Tally Ho

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 13:01
vronsky THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)>(THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)):
“Why has the U.S. - fountainhead of antigold sentiment - NOT SOLD any of its gold while encouraging its allies to sell” - Cole’s Market Insights poignant question:

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 12:59
vronsky THE INGER LETTER FORECAST - July 9, 1997 Report>(THE INGER LETTER FORECAST - July 9, 1997 Report):
“But a very overdue meaningful correction is on the agenda. After all, stock market here is “ONLY” priced at something like 2.5 times gross world product ( of all nations ) .” SEE:

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 12:58
nomercy costello>(costello):
...just realized...Ted Arnold was probably Costello's advisor. Does anyone know if Arnorld and/or Costello passed elementary math?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 12:33
nomercy costello>(costello):
..can someone provide Treasurer Peter Costello, e-mail address, so that we could inform him of Kitco's might help him to be better educated of the gold industry...more miners reaction

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 12:25
nomercy costello>(costello):
...if I were an Aussie citizen, I'd be deeply concerned...Treasurer Costello is being quoted in this article ( see Url ) that, australian gold mining industry, would remain world competitive.
...the leg is following his foot..
Can you imagine the tax revenue losses, ( mine shut downs, employee layoffs, tax rebates by industry, loss of exports etc ) if gold prices remain depressed?...if you can toss him out of office, DO IT! before he does more damage...he's a shown to be shallow and unfit to carry on with such an important portfolio...let him join the swelling numbers of unemployed...

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 12:13
Vieserre home>(home):
BB FISHER: Thank you for posting the charts and for your continued helpful comments.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 12:07
George Cole>(
VIESERRE: Agree with you that speculative selling and intense psychological warfare by the financial establishment have been two of the key factors behind the gold bear. That plus financial market euphoria and unprecedented confidence in the omnipotence of the CBs. As WW says, if gold is truly a barbarous relic why the intense effort to drive it lower?

I still see the gold and financial markets as mirror images of each other. The gold shorts have no choice but to keep the pressure on. For once gold stoops going down, a huge rally is just a matter of time. Similarly in the financial markets the bulls dare not let prices sag very long. For once prices stop soaring, a big downdraft cannot be far off.

Speed: Once the big caps move high enough so that the persistent inflow of 401k money cannot push them up any further, look for more money to flow into the small cap and mid cap funds.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 12:05
During the last six months the Japanese visitors to the GOLD-EAGLE website have been meager at best - ranking about 20th among all countries. That is 20th until LAST WEEK! With lightning like speed the Nippon surfers have invaded our website - and methinks IT AIN’T FOR THE GRAPHICS!

The actual volume of accesses to the GOLD-EAGLE from the Land of the Rising Sun rose more 800% IN JUST ONE WEEK, making Japan the 4th most frequent visitor to gold-land. At the current speed the Japanese will over-take the Australian visitors sometime this week! Incidentally, the most frequent visitors to our website are, of course, the US and Canada.

All this would imply there is obviously something afoot in Japan in regards to the precious metals. Could this herald the reversal in the gold trend... time will tell? In any case we will keep you posted as to the accelerating Nippon interest in GOLD. As we all know the Japanese have BIGGGGG BUCKS, which could turn the golden tide.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 12:03
RPad Gypsy@Buda>(Gypsy@Buda):
What is the average U.S. income for a family of 4?

CHERNOMYRDIN DECLARES INCOME. Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin has declared his personal assets at $46,000, Russian media reported on 10 July. According to a statement submitted to the Tax Inspectorate, Chernomyrdin declared 46.4 million rubles ( $8,000 ) in income for 1996. His assets include a small country house, valued at 156 million rubles ( $27,000 ) , and a Chevrolet Blazer utility vehicle, valued at 112 million rubles ( $19,000 ) . Perhaps this is not in keeping with the spirit of the times, but I do not have any stock holdings. And I have no property abroad, Chernomyrdin told Interfax.

RUSSIAN BANK SELLS GOLD INGOTS. Rossiiskii Kredit has become the first Russian bank to sell gold ingot bars to private buyers, ITAR-TASS reported on 10 June. The sale follows the government's June decision to allow Russian citizens to purchase gold ingots at commercial banks. At least three other Russian banks--Inkombank, SBS-AGRO, and Gold-Platinum Bank--say they will follow suit.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 11:28
REB na>(na):
Re: Negative press re gold. It is easy ( and low risk ) to write a story that explains how what has happened is going to continue to happen. The same is true for stock analysts. I think this is basically why we are seeing so much negative press right now re gold dropping further, and
the possibility of further CB sales. Not many of these analysts were smart enough to foresee this when gold was over $400 early last year. As WW says, news follows price.

We keep reading that the recent drop in gold is market reaction the sale by Australia. We read here on Kitco, however, that the drop from $330 to $325 and below on July 3 was the result of one seller dumping only a few minutes before the close, as many traders were packing up for the weekend. The Australia announcement was at the open, and there was no market reaction until the close. I'm only repeating what I've read here, but if this stuff is true it has certainly been buried or overlooked by the worldwide press.

DA where are you?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 11:20
Cmax @the Kitco think tank>(@the Kitco think tank):
Why is it that I get this incredible urge to regurgitate evey time I read some analytical commentary by UBS's Andy can definitely see what his real agenda is.

Also, being that goverments require such transparancy of transactions of it's slaves ( citizens ) , how is it that a central bank can sell off huge amounts of PUBLIC patrimony ( gold ) and NOT disclose as to who the buyer is Take Aussy, for example......the OZ goverment is the most overbearing, corrupt, and brainwashed anglo goverment in the WORLD ( I lived in Queensland for a year..aussy people are great, but the gov really sucks ) and are so touchy about transparancy, it seems that any citizen would have the *right* to ask that is a QUESTION BEGGING TO BE ASKED. A democratic goverment theoretically must give an accounting to the public, and the gold was public property that was exported. To what country was it exported to? ( Exportation of natural resources require a license, which indicates it's final destination and buyer ) Albeit, the OZ gold is not much in the grand scheme, ( however it is a start ) but methinks that we should put our collective heads together in our Kitco Think Tank and start researching this. I believe that the result of this investigation will indicate the direction that the world is actually moving, and who the new mega-political powers will be.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 11:07
panda @>(@):
This is an example of a 'positive spin'. Forget about who is killing whom and the dead bodies, it really is 'positive'. To quote a 'famous' person, C C Can't we all just get along?

The positive line in the story.
The pipeline deal was one example of the improved atmosphere on a political level.

Then read this.... :- ) )

Really gone now............

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 11:06
Vieserre home>(home):
Donald: Thanks for the reply, that certainly is a possibility. And NEM will report higher earnings this quarter than what the street predicted, which may account for its recent superior performance, even though it is unhedged. But maybe not. Maybe there are other forces at work.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 11:01
Over the years, I've heard many stories about the 30's. Almost all
unpleasant. About keeping currency and precious metals in bank safety
deposit boxes, oldtimers warned that when the banks failed and closed,
not only did this prevent access, the boxholders later found that their
box contained receipts for currency that had been removed by the Feds.
Then it took months for the bank to honor. Does anyone else have a spin
on the subject?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 10:58
panda @just.a.comment>(@just.a.comment):
I find it curious that the EMU comes on line, the Pac Rim countries are having currency 'problems', and gold 'drops' in Dollar terms. The EMU countries are essentially bickering about their countries relative currency valuations in order to buy a 'new' paper currency. Meanwhile the Dollar is ascendent in 'value' with respect to those currencies. In a sense, this is a defacto Smoot Hawley trade tariff tax. This time IS different though, as most currencies are floating with respect to one another. In complex math terms, I'd describe this thing as being in the 'right hand plane'. Basically, my interpretation, is that the mathematical equation describing this sad state of affairs is unstable, and could explode to plus or minus infinity. In more earthly terms, ForEx markets lookout! Plus or minus infinity equals -$$$$. This is sometimes descibed as ( $$$ ) on balance sheets. :- )


Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 10:57
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Hi guys, just dropped in before heading for bed. Gold up a little, hope my shares go up a little in the morning in oz. Hope Indian weather gets better and start to buy gold. This may start a small bull run allowing me to sell my shares at cost.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 10:48
Donald @Home>(@Home):
If you wonder why you hold gold just imagine yourself for a moment as a Filipino who had to stand there and take it when his government devalued the Peso by 11.5% ( for now ) .

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 10:39
panda @>(@):
Phillippino currency problems? 11.5% devaluation...

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 10:35
George Cole: I like Jimmy Rogers. He takes a beating every time he gets on CNBC and tries to talk about inflation. They gave him a bag of peanuts this past Friday! I agree that he will be long gold when it takes off.

Mid-cap and small-cap stocks may never get the same attention as blue-chip stocks, due to the inflows of money to Index funds. Index funds are the main repositories of 401k money and they are required to buy the S&P 500 or 100 or DOW 30. You have an excellent grasp of historical cycles. I remain sceptical of this current cycle following the historical script. Time will tell.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 10:34
Vieserre Gold, XAU, and a Rise in Gold>(Gold, XAU, and a Rise in Gold):
GEORGE S. COLE ET AL. Thank you for your comment on the XAU and its
relative performance to gold. Yes, I recognize that it has been better
performing relative to gold for some time, and a similar argument could
be made 6 months ago. And one should not bet the farm on the behavior. But this does not mean one should not continue to question the reason for such behavior and continuing possible bullish implications. Consider the following.

Actual Net CB selling has not been as severe as current market price
would lead one to believe. As of April this year, according to IMF
figures, the net sales on year over year basis have been about the same
as in 95 and 96. Yet despite a substantial increase in jewelry demand
during the first quarter, gold has fallen in price. Thus, if these
figures are correct, gold has fallen not due to CB selling, but due to
short selling caused by gold loans, hedging, speculative selling etc.
and any private dishoarding. This probable cause for the drop in price
is evidenced by the Australian gold being absorbed in the market without significantly affecting price until the announcement of the sale when additional speculative selling occurred.

Therefore, there is reason to assume that if physical demand at least
remains constant, once this speculative selling has been completed gold
should rise significantly higher. Unless of course there is a further
increase in CB selling which the market is concerned about.

But there are reasons to believe such CB selling may not occur at these
or lower levels. European banks value their gold reserves to market and
should have a concern that any partial sale of their reserves would
further drive down the value of their remaining reserves as well as
reserves in member states which may be contemplated to fulfill EMU
reserve requirements. Both the RSA and French CB representatives
earlier announced that they do not anticipate any further European CB
sales in 97. Taiwan announced that it was not selling. Russia CB
intends to buy its country’s entire production in 97. The Belgium
announcement of selling gold coins only amounts to 26T per year so it is
not a major threat to price, and such sales are not imminent. So which
country is going to be a major seller.

Since I have so very little knowledge of the market, perhaps there are
banks which are ready to sell, and for that matter are selling now, but
on the other hand, there may not be; and if further significant CB sales do not materialize at these or lower levels, how are the speculators going to manage to keep the price of gold below current prices for any significant length of time. And if gold is to go lower, more speculative selling must take place, but this also means a greater
potential latent demand and increasing possibility for a sharp recovery
due to cover.

Therefore, absent such CB sales, it would seem probable that if gold is
driven below 300, it will not stay there very long and there is a good
chance that as soon as the speculators cover, it will sharply rise above current levels. And this possibly may explain the behavior of the XAU. But, I will be the first to state, there could be a good number of other reasons as well. Only time will tell.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 10:34
panda @Golds.demise?>(@Golds.demise?):
Gold bottoming? I thought you said that they were going to have to pay someone to take it away?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 10:29
Mike Sheller The baby is born>(The baby is born):
JIN, SPEED: All this news about the demise of gold hitting the general media is probably a sign that the baby is born, and that the mass consciousness about gold will soon prove to be entirely erroneous. On the face of it, all this bad news reflects the washout of an asset that is now ripe for the accumulation. As for China's increasing gold production, why not? It's a big country with some great resources barely tapped. But not to worry. Strangely enough, many of the major historical rises in the gold price accompanied increased production. I am not saying the law of supply & demand has been repealed - just that in gold's case strange things have occurred. And will do so in a few years from now.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 10:27
panda @>(@):
Let's see... The Russian bear is far from dead and the war on gold continues. Doesn't sound like much has changed. Now, the poker player said to himself, how much gold does Mr. CB have? How much can I get him to lay on the table..... :- )

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 10:24
George Cole speculative blow-off>(speculative blow-off):
SPEED: Seems to me that we are already in a speculative blow-off for the big caps. But small caps are just starting to move and still have a lot of room on the upside. Still think we will peak in August. But how far down after that and how fast is anybody's guess.

I must come to the defense of Jimmy Rogers. Let's face it, he has been right. He is not an ideological gold bear as are many on Wall Street. Jimmy calls it as he sees it, with the sole purpose of making money for himself and his clients. I'm sure he will be heavily long when the next gold bull gets underway. He is on a totally different wavelength than people like Andy Smith and Ted Arnold.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 10:12
Steve - Perth>(
After reading the Dow 8000 pages, this article seems interesting...
Kremlin draws up blacklist of foreign press
Copyright © 1997 Times of London

MOSCOW ( July 12, 1997 3:45 p.m. EDT ) -- It is a measure reminiscent of the darkest days of the cold war. The Kremlin is drawing up a blacklist of foreign newspapers which it claims are guilty of tarnishing the image of Russia.

The list, which is expected to name a dozen international publications, will be circulated among Russia's political and business elites with a strong recommendation to ostracise those mentioned.

They are not to be granted interviews and should not be given information.

Top of the list are Forbes, the American business magazine, the Washington Times, Le Monde, the French daily, and La Repubblica, the Italian daily.

We are putting an end to an aggressive foreign media attack on the image of Russia and on the standing of Russian business, said Andrei Fyodorov, a former deputy foreign minister and one of the main figures advocating the need for an official blacklist.

The decision was taken at a special meeting of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, an influential group of Russian businessmen, media editors and politicians which advises President Boris Yeltsin. They unanimously agreed that Russia suffered from a negative image abroad and this was due partly to a foreign press campaign to damage Russian business interests.

Sergei Yastrzhembsky, Yeltsin's spokesman and the man widely tipped as Russia's next foreign minister, and Yuri Baturin, secretary of the Russian Defense Council, are both consultants to the group and were present at the meeting held 10 days ago.

The measure provoked widespread criticism. It coincides with growing pressure on Russian newspapers to control the flow of information. Last week Igor Golembiovsky, the editor of Izvestia, the Russian daily newspaper, resigned, saying he no longer felt free to decide the
paper's editorial line.

It is a classic case of Soviet-style intimidation, said Jean Batiste Naudet, the Moscow correspondent of Le Monde which fell foul of the Kremlin last March after it claimed that Viktor Chernomyrdin, the Russian prime minister, had amassed a personal fortune of $4 billion. The
prime minister announced on Friday that his total wealth is less than $50,000.

They claim that they are seeking to improve Russia's image but are in fact destroying it. No democratic country would draw up such a blacklist. But we will not be intimidated, Naudet said.

Forbes magazine was accused of seriously damaging the business interests of Boris Berezovsky-- one of Russia's first dollar billionaires and deputy secretary of the Russian Security Council --after it published a hard-hitting piece under the headline The Godfather of the Kremlin last December.

La Repubblica was singled out because of a 1991 article by its America correspondent depicting Yeltsin as a drunken bear.

Russia will defend itself, Fyodorov said. We have eyes and see what these papers are doing. Don't think that we are just going to sit back and take it passively. We have enough forces to strike back.

By MARK FRANCHETTI, Times of London

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 10:01
I read Barron's online yesterday and came away with one impression. Several of the big name analysts and fund managers are now predicting a speculative blow off sometime late this year. The frightening thing is that they have no intention of preparing for it now. They are staying fully invested with other peoples money. They must all believe that they will correctly identify the top and be able to pull out before the market crashes. IMHO there will be one hell of a crowd trying to get through that door at the same time.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 09:52
Speed @home>(@home):
Jin: Thanks for the posts. Reuters presents no new data. They are re-stating opinions and old news. Andy Smith quoted 10 times in 10 places is still just one opinion given once. After the second or third incidence, I discount the wire service quotes as propaganda. Bill Buckler has an excellent piece on the War Against Gold.

Every gold sale has a buyer. Who are the buyers? Why are they accumulating hundreds of tons of gold, if gold is going out of style? If gold is no longer a store of value, then why hasn't the U.S. treasury sold out?

The XAU and HUI rallied this past week as bullion also crept up from the low of 315. The stock market also surged. It seems to me that reports of gold's death as a store of value, have been greatly exaggerated.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 09:52
Just read in my local newspaper lots of cleaver words about how high
the bull might fly. Made me wonder. Is this one of those traps that
lets the mouse in but won't let him out, without getting skinned?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 09:07
Donald @Home>(@Home):
GEORGE S. COLE, VIESERRE: Re the XAU. I don't know a lot about how it is made up except that Placer Dome and Barrick comprise a large part of it. Can the fact that it is hold up be in part due to the fact that those larger companies are buying juniors and are making themselves mor valuable properties? For example, Newmont purchases Santa Fe. The market percieves value in the combination over and above the cost of the deal?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 08:46
To all, pick this from the net,
how do you think?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 08:42
George S. Cole gold and news>(gold and news):
VIESERRE: I would not place too much emphasis on the fact that the XAU has held up relatively well versus bullion.That has been true for most of this bear market. The same argument could have been made 6 months ago and look what has happened since then.

I will be looking for something much more dramatic to signal the end of the gold bear. Some possibilities:

Another CB announces a big sale, but bullion rallies instead of plunging.

The dollar sinks and gold goes up and stays up.

The stock market is hit hard and gold moves up sharply

A war breaks out somewhere and gold goes up and stays up.

The stock market surges, but gold does not decline further.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 08:40
George S. Cole gold and news>(gold and news):
VIESERRE: I would not place too much emphasis on the fact that the XAU has held up relatively well versus bullion.That has been true for most of this bear market. The same argument could have been made 6 months ago and look what has happened since then.

I will be looking for something much more dramatic to signal the end of the gold bear. Some possibilities:

Another CB announces a big sale, but bullion rallies instead of plunging.

The dollar sinks and gold goes up and stays up.

The stock market is hit hard and gold moves up sharply

A war breaks out somewhere and gold goes up and stays up.

The stock market surges, but gold does not decline further.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 08:25
To all,
news from oriental....again more supply?
happy trading

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 07:03
Donald @Home>(@Home):
This in from Tokyo:
Japanese firms take out forward forex
contracts on weak baht
Consumer electronics makers and automakers are selling sagging local
Asian currencies for the dollar in forward contracts to avoid foreign
exchange losses, The Nihon Keizai Shimbun learned Friday. The Thai
baht went into free fall after it was cut loose from the dollar in early July.

Sony Corp. took out forward forex contracts for the first time in
dollar-denominated transactions of its Thai subsidiary after the baht was
floated on July 2. The firm aims to prevent dollar-denominated import
payments from ballooning.

Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. is also selling the baht in increasing
volume for the dollar to prevent revenue in Thailand from decreasing in

Canon Inc. is considering dumping not only the baht but also the
Malaysian dollar and the Philippine peso in forward contracts.

However, Mitsubishi Motors Corp. and Honda Motor Co., which both
import auto parts from Japan for assembly in Thailand, will see little
impact on earnings from the weakening baht because they settle
transactions in the dollar.

Philippine central bank lets peso drop in
effective devaluation
MANILA ( Nikkei ) - The Central Bank of the Philippines said Friday it
will tolerate wider daily fluctuations in peso-dollar exchange rates,
effectively devaluating the Philippine currency. The move follows the
peso's plunge since Thailand floated the baht last week. The central
bank, however, did not clarify how wide it will allow the currency to
swing from the present 1.5%.

In response to the announcement, the peso fell 11.6% from Thursday's
close, and trading was suspended about 30 minutes after the opening.
Trading will resume on Monday.

The Philippine central bank has raised its key overnight borrowing rate
to 32% in four stages from 15% since July 2 and purchased the
currency in volume.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 05:35
bb fisher read it@because it's true>(read it@because it's true):
this from jake bernsteins website:

Why Losers Lose

Losers tend to begin with limited capital. By the time they learn how to trade and by the time they
have mastered the principles of good trading, their risk capital is gone. They can't stay in the game
long enough to make it work for them. The lesson to be learned is that the smaller your starting
capital, the lower your odds of success.
Losers tend to have no system, no method, no indicator, and no consistent methodology. They
change their methods as the wind blows. The lesson to be learned here is that a consistent
approach is necessary if the odds of success are to increase.
Losers tend to react quickly and emotionally to news and other events not specifically related to
their trading method. The lesson to be learned here is that emotions and trading don't mix well. To
be a good trader you need to steel yourself, you need to not care.
Losers tend to overtrade. They somehow believe that the more you trade, the more money you
make. This is dead wrong. All you need is a FEW GOOD trades. The lesson to be learned here is
that if you overtrade, you'll give most of your money away to brokers.
Losers don't understand the nature of trading systems. They don't realize that even the best of
trading systems will be wrong as much as 7, 8 or even 10 times in a row. They either run out of
discipline or they run out of cash before their system ( if they're even using one ) takes hold. The
lesson to be learned here is that in order to use a system effectively you need to know the
downside as well as the upside of your system, AND you must be prepared to handle the
Losers tend to get too much information. They suffer from informational overload. The more
information they get, the more confused they become. The end result is that they are often frozen
in indecision. The lesson to be learned here is that you don't need a plethora of information. All
you need is a few good methods and a little good advice.

Why Winners Win

Winners often begin their trading with sufficient capital. This gives them time to learn by fire and
to put into practice the concepts they have been taught. By having sufficient capital, they are able
stay in the game long enough to make it work for them. The lesson to be learned is that the larger
your starting capital, the better your odds of success. Note that I use the term better. Better is not
to be confused with guaranteed.
Winners often follow a specific system, or method, or indicator, and/or a consistent methodology.
They tend to stay with their methodology, giving it sufficient time to work. The lesson to be
learned here is that a consistent approach is necessary if the odds of success are to increase.
Winners have a defined methodology and they give it plenty of time to work.
Winners have self control. They DO NOT react quickly and/or emotionally to news and other
events not specifically related to their trading approach. The lesson to be learned here is that
emotions and trading don't mix well. To be a good trader you need to steel yourself, you need to
not care. To be a winning trader you need to follow the rules as often as possible. All traders
break the rules at times. But winning traders tend to follow rules much more often than they break
Winners may overtrade at times, however, they seek good trades rather then frequent trades.
Winners realize that all they need is a FEW GOOD trades. The lesson to be learned here is that if
you overtrade, you'll give most of your money away to brokers. Winning traders will focus on high
probability trades rather than on a shoot at anything that moves philosophy.
Winning traders understand the nature and limitations of their trading systems. They understand
fully that even the best of trading systems will be wrong as much as 7, 8 or even 10 times in a row.
They keep their discipline in spite of a series of losses. More often than not, their system takes hold
and rewards them for their patience. The lesson to be learned here is that in order to use a system
effectively you need to know the downside as well as the upside of your system, AND you must
be prepared to handle the downside. Winning traders understand their systems. They know that
drawdowns occur and they're prepared for them emotionally as well as financially.
Winners tend to place strict limits on the information they get. Although there ARE winning traders
who seek input as much information as possible into their decision-making process, such traders
are the exception rather than the rule. The lesson to be learned here is that you don't need a
plethora of information. All you need is a few good methods and a little good advice.

The game of commodity trading isn't an easy one to win. There are rules and there are methods. To play
the game and have to a chance at winning the game you will need to know the rules and you will need to
follow the rules. In so doing you will significantly improve your odds of success. YES, there will still be
risk. YES, the odds of success will still be tilted in favor of professional traders. However, by knowing
the rules and by having the discipline to follow them your odds will increase. Trading commodities will
never be like taking candy from a baby. It will always be more like taking candy from a dragon without
losing life and limb.

Jake Bernstein

now think about the rumour, anxiety and useless worry some of you put yoursleves thru running form one news article to another thinking you are actually learning anything of importance. uncontrolled emotions are death
in the trading game...if you want to win

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 05:32
BB was supposed to be addressed to BB Fisher, whose been posting charts, but I didn't have his email, so posted my request here. However I like the work you do Bill Buckler, and appreciate everything you add to this site. Sorry for the confusion.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 05:06
bb fisher ooops>(ooops):
typing too

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 05:05
bb fisher comments@brickbats>(comments@brickbats):
and criticism may be sent to

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 04:57
bb fisher all@done>(all@done):
that's it

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 04:56
bb fisher yet@again>(yet@again):
nearly done

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 04:55
bb fisher more@of>(more@of):
see below

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 04:55
bb fisher more@of>(more@of):
se below

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 04:54
bb fisher more@of >(more@of ):

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 04:51
bb fisher more food@for thought>(more food@for thought):
Bart: how can we specify more than one graph when we post something?

the 6 charts here and following show that relationships betweens things can be as illustrative as relative price levels. i think that in viewing the relationships between paper assets and essential commodities one can more clearly view the merits and risks of each.

it may be too simple to haphazardly assume that because the 'dow' is worth so many more bushels of stuff now versus only 10 years ago this skewed trend can not continue for very much longer. additionally you would be remiss to blindly think that the end of this situation will result in an overall dramtic rise in the obstensibly undervalued foodstuffs. various combinations of rises and falls are quite possible.

one thing is certain however, there will be some very big winners and some very big losers during the next few years as these relationships inevitably readjust.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 04:31
Bill Buckler>(
Reify ( Jul 13 04:06 AM ) I assume you're talking to me. Glad you like the charts. There's not much point posting Gold back to the early 1960s. It was pegged at $US 35 oz until 1971, my data goes back to 1973. I may post a long-term chart. It would have to be a monthly bar to fit on a web page properly.

I convert my charts in Paint Shop Pro so the background is transparent. Also reduce colors to 16 so the files aren't too big. It is an extra step, but I think it's worth it.

If you want other charts, e-mail me. I'll see what I can do.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 04:11
Reify @proxy>(@proxy):
Since Tortfeasor is away on holiday, may I briefly fill his humor spot?
Not sure but the following may have been one of his.

FROM THE OLD TESTAMENT--Sunday School Student comments
In the first book of the bible, Guinessis, The Lord got tired of
creating the world, so he took the Sabbath off.

Adam & Eve were created from an apple tree.

Noah's wife was called Joan of Ark.

Noah built the ark, which the animals came on in pears.

Lot's wife was a pillar of salt by day, but a ball of
fire by night.

The Jews were a proud people and throughout history
they had trouble with unsympathetic Genitals.

Sampson was a strongman who let himself be led astray by
a jezebel like Delilah.

Sampson slated the Philistines with the axe of apostles.

Moses led the Hebrews to the Red Sea, where they made unleavened
bread, which is bread made without any ingredients.

Moses went up on Mount Cyanide to get the Ten Amendments.

The first commandment was when Eve told Adam to eat the apple.

The Fifth Commandment is humor thy mother and father.

The Seventh Commandment is thou shalt not admit adultery.

Moses died before he ever reached the UK. Then, Joshua
led the Hebrews in the Battle of Geritol.

The greatest miracle in the Bible is when Joshua told his
son to stand still and he obeyed him

David was a Hebrew king skilled at playing the liar.
He fought with the Finkelsteins, a race of people who
lived in the biblical times.

Solomon, one of David's sons, has 300 wives and
700 porcupines.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 04:08
Bas @Oz Bureaucratic Bungle>(@Oz Bureaucratic Bungle):
Harry Schulz, highest paid investment advisor ( Guinness Book of Records ) was quoted in an Oz newspaper to the effect that selling of Oz gold reserves was a bureaucratic bungle of the highest order. The Reserve bank will regret its decision when gold rallies. More importantly, he goes on to say that a gold rally is imminent, the price having fallen through a major support level. He says that a major Asian syndicate has been shorting gold and is now getting ready to re-enter the market.

Maybe its BT or maybe Harry has a vested interest in saying all that. Is the dagger turning?

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 04:06
Hi BB,
The charts were just great.

If you've read my posts, over the months, you know how much I enjoy TA,
long term.
Yes I do have a request, actually more than one. I'd like the gold chart
to go back to the early sixties, if possible, then if you have a similar
chart for silver, and either dow or s&p500, for the same period.

Can you super impose two graphs? I'd like the platinum and gold that
way, you'll find that very interesting too.

I have most of what I've asked for, but the condition of my charts are
abominable, due to time, and sometimes errors.

Do you have any currencies, such as Swiss Franc or DeutcheMark, dating
back to the '60s?

You may bill me if this gets out of line, but let me know in advance,

By the way, the Omega charts usually shown by people always have a black
background, do you go to the trouble to change before posting?

Again much obliged, and hope I'm not too much of a pain.

All the best,

Reify, Don't have your Email.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 02:34
Amnesty @I.R.>(@I.R.):
Steve-Perth W.A. My feelings on that piece is that it is a red herring.
I think C9 are stooges for playing this one. Its obvious all the drama
over the next five years is going to be played out in S.E.A. ( and Westbank ) They just don't want us thinking too much about it. U.S. marines setting up in Darwin under the cover they will provide security for Olympic Games 2000. Yeah sure and its also 3 hours to a S.E.A. flare up! Question. Why did South Korea buy 85% of RBA sale but are prepared
to have it warehoused at the RBA? Contingency funds held in safe country

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 02:05

To : Ted Butler

Ted - didn't really understand your 12 July 09:51 post regarding forward sales. As far as I can tell, none of my gold mining companies receive any cash up front when they make their forward sales. My understanding is that a gold mining company establishes a contract with, say, a bullion dealer to sell a certain portion of its reserves at a certain price at some future time. To offset his risk the bullion dealer might then borrow gold from a CB, sell this gold into the spot market, and invest the cash to achieve a market interest rate which will provide a net positive return to the dealer over the duration of the forward contract. When the forward gold is finally delivered by the mining company, the dealer pays the company cash and hands over the gold to the CB to repay the loan.

It would be greatly appreciated if you could clarify how the mining company gets cash up front through forward selling.

Gold loans are a different situation. Here the mining company borrows gold, sells it into the spot market and receives cash. The loan is subsequently paid back when new gold is mined by the company.

Also, it is quite easy to verify the actual prices at which gold companies have sold forward by looking at their financial statements. These statements will tell their total sales revenue and total amount of gold sold during the reporting period. If you know the average spot price during the period you can roughly estimate the price which the company must have got for the gold which it sold into its forward contracts. For example, quickly looking at the latest quarterly results for Normandy Mining I can tell that the company received around US$500 per ounce for the gold which it delivered into its forward contracts. This gold was probably sold at least 4 years ago when the price was 380-400.

Cheers, Milhouse

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 01:12
Scotty Financial Times stuff>(Financial Times stuff):
hey's what the London Financial Times has to say about gold ( hang on for this ride! )

Gold: Not quite so 'precious' any more

Deborah Hargreaves examines the latest price plunge and finds prospects gloomy
About of depression has enveloped the precious metals market as analysts question whether gold, beset by tumbling prices, is losing its status as a safe haven.

Governments and private investors have traditionally turned to gold during periods of inflation and economic instability. But, with many central banks selling off reserves, a significant change in the way the metal is valued could be under way.

The price drop of $14 a troy ounce over the past 10 days was sparked by the announcement that Australia's Reserve Bank had sold two-thirds of its gold holdings over the previous six months. Prices slipped to a 12-year low of around $318 an ounce and, in spite of some consolidation since, most analysts believe the market will go lower over the longer term.

There is a genuine shock factor here, says Andy Smith, precious metals analyst at UBS in London. If Australia, as a leading producer, is not interested in holding gold, who is?

Australia is not alone. In recent years, central banks in Canada, the Netherlands and Belgium have got rid of gold, while more recently there was a serious row in Germany over a proposed revaluation of its reserves. Moreover, Switzerland and Portugal have both said they will sell.

But what makes Australia's move such a blow to the market is that the country's mining companies are important producers of gold and had counted on the government to support prices.

Reaction to the Reserve Bank's action has been bitter. Australia's Association of Mining and Exploration Companies said the cyclical downturn in the market had been made worse than it would have been. The World Gold Council added: For a leading producer to take unnecessary actions that prejudice the well-being of a key sector of its economy suggests a lack of sensitivity to the factors impacting the market.

Explaining its reason for selling - a decision supported by the country's prime minister - the Reserve Bank said: While there was a case to hold some gold as a contingency against unforeseen events, the previous holdings - about 20 per cent of international reserves - were no longer justified.

The Australian central bank hit out at its critics yesterday, blaming gold miners and speculators for the fall in the gold price this year. It said the money from the gold sale had been put to better use buying foreign securities such as bonds.

If all central banks were to take the same approach, however, the market would be awash with gold and the price would plunge.

The holdings of central banks differ widely. Around 73 per cent of US foreign reserves - or 261.75m oz - are in gold but Australia and Canada now have only about 5 per cent.

M. Murenbeeld & Associates, a Canadian precious metals consultant, estimates that if most countries were to cut their holdings to 10 per cent of foreign reserves, an additional 618m oz would come to market - almost the same as eight years' new supply from mines.

Smith compares the present-day gold market with silver a century ago. In 1871, about 80 per cent of the world's population had currencies redeemable in silver. Ten years later, silver's monetary value had been nearly obliterated.

Demand for gold depends so much on its value as a precious metal and a safe haven - it has few industrial uses - that its price could collapse if bankers start to lose interest.

Technical analyst Brian Marber, who charts the price of gold, says an important pattern is building up which shows the price hitting $150 an ounce over the long term. Smith himself believes it will drop below $300 fairly quickly.

Over the short term, the price could bounce back, but most observers believe the longer term trend is far from promising.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 00:47
Scotty goats head is better!>(goats head is better!):
nailz......your decency post was right on the money! I can add to your philosophy: Two heads are better than one, even if one is a goats head. At least the goat will find something to eat. Cheers!!!

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 00:44
Jack Forbes conference in LA & Moony>(Forbes conference in LA & Moony):

On C-SPAN a short time ago; Rupert Murdock gave about an hours worth of opinions.
Never once did he look down at a prepared paper.
I personally respect him for that: and many of the things he said.
I wonder if Neil Cavuto; formerly of CNBC got sick and tired of being told what to say; and went over to FOX business?
You will have to check his opinions yourself, I don't like writing books.
Mooney; I think your right about Barrick; if we knew a bottom for the good midcaps they ABX may pay a small fortune to get them.
PDG sometimes makes errors, but they like Homestake are mining institutions.
Munk should go back and watch the Danube flow.
Don't wish him any harm, just to keep him out our faces.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 00:43
Lan Man HopeIGot AllThoseZeros>(HopeIGot AllThoseZeros):
Bill Buckler: As usual, exceptional op-ed piece. So if we were to have the same percentage of backing as there was in June of 1973 ( 1.90% ) , then gold could be purchased with $1450 american based upon $20 trillion total est. debt.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 00:38
Panda and nailz.......good questions about how/why bullion is marked up. The gold market is just like any other market: if you buy in quantity, you get a better deal.

Let's look at land. Let's say you want to buy 10,000 acres and the market is at $1000 an acre. For one, it would be relatively easy to find something that big, and for two, it would relatively easy to actually put the deal together. Now, let's say you only want to buy a half acre lot in the same market. I can assure you that you are not going to get it for $500!! And even if you could, the closing costs would be about the same for each sale - thereby making the $500 buy more expensive per unit. ( for this argument, I'm assuming that finance costs of points, etc, would be based on a percentage of sale price ) Also, since it's harder to find a for-sale half-acre, your looking around costs go up.

So, that half-acre lot would probably cost close to ( say ) $800. That's your spread from buying it 10,000 acres at a time.

Same is true for spot gold. Spot is the price of gold in rather large units. And it's assumed the buyer has the money and the transaction has no other overhead. When it comes time for you to scrape together $350 for a 1oz Eagle, you have to find someone to sell you a quantity of one. There is much overhead involved with that: wholesale to retail pricing, shipping, rent, utilities, insurance and paying for that apartment for the young girlfriend! ( Babes really dig gold dealers! )

As an aside, when a CB ( or other large holder ) sells its gold at market prices, that does not include shipping - which is called lifting - the bullion to it's new location. My claim to fame was putting big gold deals together in London about 15 years ago. The actual buying/selling was easy. The lifting was the tough part - insurance, transportation and security were big expenses. Did you know that an empty 747 freighter can carry only about 75-100 tons of gold? That's a block that takes up less than 5% of the available on-board cubic space. And, of course, all those security goons want put up in only the best hotels.

Anyway, all you see is what the CB/company/private individual bought/sold the gold for. That does not include shipping and/or storage to a new location. That is ultimately the big spread in the sky!

So, if you walk into your friendly coin dealer tomorrow, he will charge you spot plus a premium. That premium depends on how much he can replace that gold Eagle for. The big traders, like Monex, sell to big dealers at 3% over spot. The mint sells to Monex at a prearranged price. Monex hopes to buy in quantity and be able to replace their sales for less than what they sold it out the door for. If they can do that on a daily basis, then they will make a profit. The person who gets killed in this kind of market is the little guy who is sitting on inventory bought at $350 and now it's at $321.

As another aside, take a look at the bottom of this page here on Kitco. They have buy and sell prices. As of this writing, they are selling Eagles at $337.91 ( spot 321.01 ) - that's 5.2% over spot. They are buying 24K scrap ( ) at $14.24/pennyweight. There's 20 dwt in an oz, so that works out to 310.80 per oz. It's interesting they don't give a buy price for Eagles. It would appear that their profit is about $27 per oz ( assuming a zero sum of buy and sell ) . That's about 8% return on investment - a respectable industry standard for any profitable company.

So, by the time it gets down to the little-guy dealer and Mr. Roy T. Smedlo ( the high roller who is buying one Eagle per month ) , the spreads can get pretty high. Also, the quicker the prices drop, the more the spread becomes as there are many folks left with inventory bought at a higher price. Once the market washes out, the spread goes down. That's what I saw at the coin show today: the $20 spread I saw is only $5 above the Kitco spread. I'm assuming Kitco only sells in large quantity to corporate entities and individuals. So that extra 5 bucks is quite reasonable considering all the overhead involved in getting that coin to that dealer to sell to Mr. Smedlo.

My advice, you ask? Buy the physical bullion if you are happy with the walk away price. Sheeesh, I forgot to mention sales tax! That adds 4-7% in many markets!! If the walk away price is ( say ) $355, and you think gold is going to $400 by December, then that looks like a good short term investment. By the way, always assume that you can sell your Eagles to any given dealer for spot. It may not always be true, but it's a good guideline. I use it in my dealings. I generally sell at 1-3% over what it physically cost me ( including shipping, tax, title, and dealer prep ) , and will always buy an Eagle at spot. I find that spot pricing is very hard to argue with, even when dealing with Mr. Roy T. Smedlo.

Whew! Hope I wasn't too long winded! Please ask for clarification if I forgot any strategic details!

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 00:33
EB......reference your FAQ on what percentage and why PM should be in any given portfolio. Here's how I see it....

Putting any kind of investment in one's portfolio concludes that that individual has it there for a reason: to increase in value and to ultimately liquidate at some point in the future for retirement income, trip around the world, college expenses, etc.

So, when we buy a gold stock ( say ) at $5 a share, we project a target of ( say ) $8, and sell at that time with a $3 profit. That loot is then invested in some other vehicle that we hope will have a like gain. Whether it's gold stocks, bonds, corporate stocks or whatever -- it's a bet that that company will do well so their stock appreciates.

Everyone for years has said that Gold should be a part of a portfolio. Frankly, buying 100 1oz gold Eagles, or Mapleleafs or whatever make a pretty stinky investment for the long term. However, they are great insurance. And I mean insurance via the classical definition: they will pay off when you suffer a loss or calamity of some sort. There is just too much volatility to buy and sell gold as a portfolio investment -- especially if you are not savvy in that regard ( and there are few that are ) . Plus the varying spreads will kill the casual investor. Even the pit traders take it in the shorts every now and then -- and they are the ones creating the market!

If someone were to come to me for a gold buy recommendation for the medium/long term, I would point them to stocks and/or mutual funds. If they really wanted to buy bullion, then I would tell them to target a 2 or 3 fold gain as their target. Reason? If something drastic happens and they can't get out of all their stock positions, then at least they would have something left to start over with. With a 2 or 3 or 4 fold gain, the spread doesn't matter anymore.

I am buying physical gold for two reasons: long term insurance. If the market really goes into the shitter, then at least I can buy food and pay the rent ( theoretically ) . If it doesn't happen in my lifetime, then my son will ( hopefully! ) use the windfall as a prudent insurance policy.

However, if gold makes a $100-200 jump, and I can actually sell them at that level above what I actually paid for them, then I'd be tempted to sell some for a quick profit. I would wait for the price to come down and then buy more. I think the latest buying spree by individuals is being driven by this scenario.

Bottomline: we all make our investment decisions. Personally, I like the feel and look of 10 Eagles in my hand!

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 00:29
Mooney @Singing.In.The.Rain>(@Singing.In.The.Rain):
Talking to myself again and gotta get up early to pack car and take family to cottage for a couple days, ( I can hear the sympathetic murmurs now ) , so time to hit the hay. Goodnight Glenn wherever you might be.

Date: Sun Jul 13 1997 00:24
Mooney @cherokee>(@cherokee):
cherokee - I just saw your Sat. afternoon post wherein you said i've been buying options ( dec 400 calls ) every chance i get. I think options are a good vehicle to use on occasion, ( not as good as the smoke mobile or a '67 Cougar though! ) , but as I mentioned to Lurker777 the other day, I believe that with the present gold price being so low you would be better off to go with a lower strike price. You can still pay cheap premiums and have a much higher probability of a payoff on your 'lottery tickets'. Say $365 or $375 Strike?

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 23:59
Skylark - Re your 16:26 - Your comment about Munk reminded me that I wanted to point out Munk's obvious, ( to me anyway ) , and nefarious, motive ( Tortfeasor - is this slanderous? ) which I feel is his reasoned attempt to talk down the ( already bleeding ) market even further so that he can pick up the plums that he has his eyes on at all-time bargain basement prices. If anyone else here has already put forth this thesis, I apologize, I have been away from the PC for most of last 2-3 days and have not yet caught up on all the posts.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 23:44
Steve - Perth, Western Australia>(
Sunday TV program, Channel 9, 13th July, 1997


Channel Nine Australia has just re-broadcast a one hour documentary with Peter Jennings of the American ABC interviewing all of the parties involved in covert operations in Iraq for the past 6 years.

This is a very interesting revelation out of the blue, so soon after the Bilderberger meeting in the US recently.

It was obviously a massive spin doctor effort. To the thinking person, the program certainly raised a lot more questions than it supplied answers.

The interviews tracked how the CIA supposedly wanted to oust Saddam Hussein through a covert operation, in co-operation with the Opposition Party, the Iraqi National Congress. The idea was to strengthen the INC, and attract some of Saddam’s rebel army units, leading to a coup. This was first intiated through President Bush, but carried on by President Clinton, through advice.

A CIA TV broadcasting outpost was established in the North of Iraq. Multi millions were spent over the years, both in Iraq, & in Anti-Saddam programs through London. An amount of $23 million dollars was shown as evidence as the amount spent in London against Saddam.

The interview showed how the CIA apparently split in to two camps. For and against. The CIA headquarters in London ( building shown ) clearly opposed the coup attempt.

The CIA later established a major outpost in Imman, Jordan. All the ex or retired CIA directors involved were interviewed ( of course ) .

During 1995, 14 of the 16 provinces were in rebellion in Iraq, & supposed Saddam was in danger. They supposed only had two days of Kalashnakov bullets left in Saddam’s possession. However, Saddam’s helicopter gun ships came in, overturning the insurrection.

In 1996, Saddam’s tanks attacked the INC in the North, killing over 150 of the INC. The INC expected air cover from the US, but this never came. All that happened was the firing of the missile at Saddam’s radar installation in the SOUTH. This supposedly was a major stuff up on the part of the CIA, so about 800 people were airlifted to the island of Guam, in August 1996 ( during the Presidential election campaign ) . Most of these people have now been re-located into the US, or into US Prisons as spies.

The concluding remark from the Australian presenter was that the US feared that a more dangerous dictator may have emerged after Saddam, so they eventually gave up. A likely story.


1. Is this one CIA outfit fighting another CIA outfit seeking more funds
2. Why is the CIA all of a sudden becoming so open about their covert operatations.
3. Is the US Govt simply covering their butt over a so-called stuff up?
4. Is this a way of publicly walking away from the INC whom they theoretically supported, pre-empting the INC squealing to the United Nations?
5. Is the US Govt preparing the West for a build up they cannot control in the Middle East later this month? This occurred in a very similar fashion pre August 1990.
6. Is this a CIA/US Govt PR event designed to filter back to Israel, to placate or inform them that the US won’t be supporting the Israeli’s, when Israel comes under certain fire in the near future?
7. Is Russia up to something?

Watching the Middle East scene for many years now, very little emerges from the media in a premeditated fashion like this, unless the Bilderberger outfit wants it known. I suppose it will become clearer soon. Nothing like a good exogenous event to boost the price of gold, eh

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 23:11
panda @>(@):
Bill Buckler -- I don't want to get anyones hope up, but... I've actually had one person at work ask me about.... gold funds? Can you believe it? This persons' reasoning goes along the lines of, The stuff has fallen so much. I explained that gold was in a bear market and that you stood a better chance of losing money than making money in a gold fund... Still, the questions persisted. The bottom line is, this person wants to take their profits from tech stocks and move some in to gold funds. Go figure. Most people still laugh if even mention the precious metals. I guess greed still rules. Maybe that's why S&P 500 index funds will go up for ever! :- ) ) Hey, thirty percent a year for the next two lifetimes is pretty good!

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 22:28
nailz THANKS........>(THANKS........):
VIESERRE and BILL BUCKLER and ALL.........Thanks to you both.....Vieserre for the well thought out reasoning and to Bill Buckler for the site......I go to the Privateer once a week and am always enlightened in some or many ways...ALL...The conversations here this weekend have been civil and somewhat intellectual....For all those who have enjoyed it, as I have, I hope you will take heed. When an idiot comes on this thread, as will always happen, ignore him. For the most part they want to see their name in headlines and feel they have challenged the group. We have lost too many good people to bickering. Note that I did not say to ignore all who happen to have a different view than you. Only the pompous asses who wish to destroy harmony rather than contribute to it should be ignored.....We should welcome those with differing views who will present those views in an articulate and tasteful way....An old saying goes 2 heads are better than one, even if one is a goats' head.....We can all learn from others and everyone has some valuable contribution to make to this group....Mine is the goats head......THANKS

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 22:27
Bill Buckler>(
Viserre ( Jul 12 21:58 ) Glad you like it. Thank you in turn for your many postings on Kitco. I have just posted a new Op-Ed on Central Bank Gold sales at

I really do enjoy Kitco. I would like to participate more than I do but believe me, the combination of the website and the Privateer itself is a 25 hour a day job.

If I could in turn ask a favor of the participants at Kitco, I would appreciate getting any evidence you have - anecdotal or otherwise - of what the level of demand is for physical Gold ( bullion coin, small bars etc ) . That's my real e-mail address.

I am watching this closely as the best evidence obtainable of the *real* effect of Gold's recent elevation to newsworthy status.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 22:11
auroelf TC2000>(TC2000):
panda: Have you called Peter, Chris, Jon, and Don Worden to aks for HUI to be added to Telechart 2000? Call 1-800-776-4940 Monday after 9 Eastern time and try. You will get a salesperson, but ask to have your request passed along to the top. Don Worden used to do a fun financial quiz show on WDNC radio in Durham, NC before he retired to help his sons at Worden Brothers. Always said he didn't understand gold, but then he made some good turning point calls on gold stocks using TA and gut feel.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 21:58
Vieserre home>(home):
BILL BUCKLER: I am taking this opportunity to thank you for your insightful and beneficial comments on your web site, and for the charts and other helpful material. It is all well done and appreciated.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 21:57
Bob M>(
Mike Scott-gold prices were fixed by Roosevelt during thsat time frame..the price was totally controlled by Uncle traded around $20.66 an ounce for most of the period then it settled at $35 during the depression. It is said that Roosevelt himself when he arose in the morning set the gold price.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 21:27
Vieserre home>(home):
NAILZ: I appreciate your viewpoint. As I see it, the fact that the XAU is in a bear market does not mean it has to perform to any prior historical pattern. As to why the XAU is at a substantially higher level now than what it was previously relative to gold is question I cannot answer, and I welcome other viewpoints. Your response of a higher DOW is what I presume most would attribute it to. I do not. One can speculate that equities are more reflective of a longer time frame and foresee price improvement over that time, as did the XAU in the 92-93 bottom when it bottomed prior to gold. And this view provides for a bullish outlook. Moreover, it would seem that if gold did head south for 250, the XAU has plenty of room to fall before it breaches its 92 lows so that it would probably not penetrate these lows unless it was expected that gold would remain at those lower levels for a substantial period. Again a favorable viewpoint. It could also be attributed to the better performing components of the XAU - NEM, ABX, HM - all have better reserves and earning power. But in any event, IMO the important point is to recognize that there almost a 30 basis point spread between where the XAU was in 92 and where it is now with gold at lower levels; that ABX, NEM and HM have during the past week recovered above prior trend lows notwithstanding a limited recovery in the price of bullion and a consensus opinon that gold is going lower; and there are reasons for this behavior. And it is not the type of behavior that suggests substantially lower gold prices over the intermediate or longer term. But at the same time, I do not contend that it will not happen and this pattern could certainly change. Similarly, as to whether gold stocks will fall, stabililze or go higher in the event of a market sell off with a rise in gold is also subject to different conditions, views, and opinions that make buyers and sellers.

Like you, I hope and have earlier contemplated there would be a rotation into gold stocks before this bull Dow market ended, but that looks grim at this time. As does, for that matter, a significant increase in the price of gold for fundamental reasons. But the bullish side is that with such an overwhelming short bias in the market, any positive surprise is more than likely to produce an immediate and very significant price rise due to latent technical demand and a rush by others to buy at perceived lows.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 21:20
panda @>(@):
NotaGoldbug -- I've tried building such a chart, but the index is composed of more stocks than Super Charts will let you have on the screen at once. You can hide the individual charts, but you need to have them 'on screen' to sum and multiply by the index divisor.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 21:15
panda @ can't stop laughing!>(@ can't stop laughing!):
Front @18:43 -- ROTFL :- ) ) :- ) )

You're a naughty boy! But I'm sure it was, 'by accident'... :- ) ) :- ) )

:- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) )

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 20:30
Pepino di Cortino I'ma agree with the GBBI Gold Bugs Bureau of Investigation >(I'ma agree with the GBBI Gold Bugs Bureau of Investigation ):

The wholla nine of you:
Buttati in un mare pieno di merda come te?

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 20:25
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MIKE SCOTT: Try here.


Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 20:21
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MIKE SHELLER: Humble & forebearing? No one ever called me that before, but it is a nice goal to strive for. It is not that I think they would do it voluntarily. Look at the options. Do nothing? Total collapse ala Steve Puetz, Dark Ages, barter etc.. Let another country do it? Ok US, you lose the world leadership role forever to that country. Trade in DM, SF, Yen, EMU or some sort of basket? Same result, loss of leadership role. Its the rock or hard place thing. One thing is certain. We will not see this drag on much longer. Tailand, Malaysia, Philipines, Burma are in currency turmoil these past two weeks. Japan is sending bankers to Tailand this week to try and patch something up. These things feed on themselves and drag in all the weak elements. Everything connects to everything. A small bank in Austria failing was all it took to bring the entire world into depression in the 30's. The old Domino Theory at work.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 20:03
Panda, I would think you could build The HUI index using the various stocks..
I do not use your particular software but some will allow a basket of your choice
of stocks and then build a personal index.. I'm sure you have thought of this.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 20:02
Mike Scott>(
I'm trying to find charts/graphs showing prices of gold from 1925-1935. Anyone know where I can find that information?

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 20:00
Mike Sheller I stand humbled>(I stand humbled):
DONALD: You must be a truly generous and forebearing soul to expect that government will ever voluntarily redeem paper for gold.
I think, in the case of a financial catastrophe ( which I DO NOT look forward to with any kind of relish ( ( or ketchup ) ) ) it will be more likely individual private organizations which will pioneer the return to a gold standard. Please be so kind as to indulge my latest Astrological Investor post at Gold-Eagle.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 19:47
Mike Sheller @Donald>(@Donald):
DONALD: You have put your finger on a very important point. This is the first Kondratieff Wave ( 50-60 year business cycle of inflation/deflation ) where the currencies of the world are no longer tied to gold. It's a whole new ball game, and a potentially inflationary one if we can squeek by a deflation.. Actually, it could be said right now that all that's keeping the US out of a major cycle wave deflation is the chronic deficit spending.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 19:42
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MIKE SHELLER: More thoughts on my post of 19:10. The way they set the $35 price in 1933 is kind of interesting. After they made it illegal for citizens to hold gold or gold coins President Roosevelt and his buddy, Harold Ickies, would check the paper each day to see what the free market price was around the world. When it seemed to settle at the $35.00 level they did the deal. We have all been wondering why the Fed is not selling its own gold stockpile now. Could it be that they are preparing for another event like 1933? This time do a reverse. See what the gold market does after the initial crisis, then make the dollar fully redeemable to all at the market price. It would probably work. They would get a reflation that the public and overseas markets would accept.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 19:38
VIESERRE..........OK, if negative sentiment and Bre X have already caused the XAU to be in a bear market, why is the XAU not at the levels it was in 1993, the last time gold was this low ( close anyway ) The XAU was below 70 and now it is above 90. My contention is it is because of the strong bull market in stocks right now...I tend to agree with Prechter and others that if the stock market tanks before gold gets started up, then there is lots of room for downside in XAU ( and all mining stocks ) ....If however, we can get the gold bull to make a run before stocks tank, there should be a time of big boom in the gold stocks....I hope it happens this way, because it will give the owners of gold equities a double barreled approach to making money....Some reward for their patience, maybe ?

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 19:30
GBBI We have cleared (Rodgers) Rogers of any wrong doing>(We have cleared (Rodgers) Rogers of any wrong doing):

We have removed Jimmy ( Rodgers ) Rogers from our 10 most wanted list. L's ( 18:25 ) was most convincing.
Munk's success was to a great extent provided by the fine Camflo Team that they picked up when they took over Camflo Mines. Luck also plays a part. He should thank god for Nevada and the good people on his staff.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 19:27
At the coin show.......Hi all.....just got back from a big Saturday at the Colorado Springs coin show. According to the regulars, it was busy and everyone seemed to be turning some inventory.

The two bullion and rare gold dealers were in good spirts -- and their prices reflected the market. 1oz gold Eagles were going for about $20 over spot; 1oz silver Eagles were going for about $6.50 ( 100 minimum ) . That seems fair in this market. If anyone has been thinking of buying any gold, the downside risk is pretty minimum. Silver Eagle pricing has always been spotty due to the number of people who buy them ( one-sie and two-sie ) for numismatic value; and also due to the number of people who buy them one or two at a time. I saw them go as high as $8 for a single silver eagle today.

I couldn't believe the price spread from a plain BU $20 Saint and an MS63 certified: $440 and 460 respectively! XF and VF gold was also selling at lows I've never seen before. MS64 was going for around $585. I picked up some good deals today.

So, what's the bottom line? I dunno. :- ) ) It seems that those I dealt with didn't think the gold/silver market was a big deal these days. They seem to be able to profit in either direction. No one seemed in a panic -- although when I asked one guy what his buy/sell spread was on 100 and 1000 silver eagles, he laid into me with the ol' woe is me as silver is in the tank sob story. I hate dealing with folks like that.

Everyone else seemed to be having fun -- I also noticed many young collectors fishing for good deals in the penny jars. That a *very* encouraging sign!! Drop me a line if you have any particular numismatic questions!!

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 19:10
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MIKE SHELLER: In 1933 when they needed to create money to reflate the economy they first had to change the dollar/gold ratio to $35.00 That worked only because gold still backed the dollar internationally. There was no resultant run out of the dollar. Since Nixon closed the gold window that confidence factor has been removed. A new attempt to reflate, without gold backing, would likely have a different result. My guess that there would be a run out of the dollar by all parties, other governments, corporations and individuals worldwide.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 19:02
Jack silver>(silver):

When silver was demonitized 100+/- years ago, they still used gold as the monetary reserve.

If the CB's sell their gold now, can US Treasuries or foreign treasuries support specific world currencies?

The US dollar like most currencies has not acted with any degree of stability and I constantly wonder if the switching back and forth from unstabile to stable currencies by the CB's; is the driving force behind this new era bullcrap.
It's a fact that competitive devaluations make the citizens of various countries happy, by increasing their econmic activity.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 18:58
Mike Sheller slow me down, man>(slow me down, man):
LARRYN: Meant to say unit.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 18:58
Bill Buckler>(
Nailz ( Jul 12 14:08 ) That's exactly the kind of info I'm looking for. If you want to guage the effect of Gold being all over the media - all of a sudden - look at the demand for *physical* metal ( bullion coin etc. ) coming from the public.

I know that such demand was up tenfold in Oz in the immediate aftermath of the RBA announcement. I know that it rose strongly in Asia. Now am getting some anecdotal info that it is rising in North America too. Personally, I will be watching this closely. The last think that the Central Bankers et all wanted was to make Gold front page news, for *any* reason.

It will be interesting to see how long Gold stays in the news and what the effect is on ordinary people.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 18:56
Mike Sheller Larryn once more>(Larryn once more):
LARRYN: By the way, I AGREE with you that in the event of a deflation, government will create more money to attempt a reflation. Absolutely. This speaks for the dilution of the paper monetary unti ( which is being run off a printing press ) and the relative stability of the gold ounce unjit ( which must be sweatede out of the ground witrh much toil and expense. Capeesh?

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 18:51
Mike Sheller @Larryn>(@Larryn):
LARRYN: Please forgive me, but I think you did not understand what I was saying. It does not matter what the AMOUNT of money in circulation is. The UNIT VALUE of the money will fluctuate relative to the amount in circulation. So if there is MORE money, then each unit becomers worth LESS. If there are FEWER units ( dollar bills or gold ounces ) then each unit is worth MORE. The unit of money is what does the financial WORK. If there were only 100 lbs of gold in the world, AND it was considered MONEY, each gram would do the work of thousands of current paper dollars.. IT WOULD ALL BE THE SAME. You could have a great nite out on the town with 1 gram of gold in your pocket, instead of 1000 paper dollars. Capeesh?

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 18:46
WW @Jimmy Rodgers>(@Jimmy Rodgers):
Larryn: The CB s are down to their gold lows. If they really did sell all of their gold they would lose the ability to try to psychologically attempt to continue to control it. Further, there are indications that other CBs will buy. However, this is all cash mkt and the deriviative mkt controls the gold price. In one month the volume equals all the CB gold. CB gold talk is for psychological effect as its actual effect would truly be minimal. 1.5 years of gold sale talk is to keep buyers out and producers selling short with a sprinkle of CB selling followed by timely announcements for effect. All the gold is nearly sold/cb sales and loans+producer forward and option selling of what they dont currently have. CB sales are a propaganda attempt to keep money out as the paper mkt has absorbed much more selling than all the CBs possess. As the financial bubble gets more extreme the chances of greater anti gold rhetoric increase/ the liklihood of sales of the real stuff decreases/especially since it would have little effect on price since the cash mkt does not discover price but the much larger deriviative mkt where all the CB gold is traded in a month in volume. The latter is to the point that CB sale talk is pure propaganda to dampen demand. This will eventually be realized and its continuing effect nullified.
The timing of the Aussie annoucement midnite Aussie time smells of desparation!!

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 18:43
Front Panda:>(Panda:):


I actually saw one, I mean know what I mean ( :- )


Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 18:35
Larryn fund redemptions>(fund redemptions):
I read somewhere that during the last 3 weeks of June ( up to Jul 2 ) , gold fund redemptions were around 3%, the highest sector in mutual funds. The big selloff on July 7 most certainly was influenced by the need for some funds to sell stocks to build up cash to cover these same redemptions. Most gold funds are very close to fully invested ( 95-98% ) . If this was the case, an argument could be raised that the stocks were artificially depressed on 7,8 July, soon to recover.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 18:30
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Barron's, page MW 10. Did anyone catch the part in the third column about the link between falling gold prices and T-Bill rates? The implication is that T-Bill rates will also decline from this point.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 18:25
Larryn @Rogers>(@Rogers):
I don't mean to defend Jimmy Rogers ( not Rodgers ) too much, but he only said that he wasn't into gold right now. He would be later. Several months ago he said the time to buy would be when the CB's started to sell big. He certainly doesn't change his way of thinking to suit Wall Street, and is one of the truly independent talkers out there. He puts his money where his mouth is; more than most.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 18:25
Vieserre home>(home):
NAILZ: Thanks for the reply. I have earlier considered the issue raised by your comment, and I am compelled to conclude that your argument would have merit except that the Bre-x fallout and current extreme negative gold pessimism have already created a bear market in gold equities with corresponding fund redemptions. Of course there will always be those who may still hold gold equities who will be tempted to sell in any general market sell-off along with index fund liquidations, but IMO because of the liquidation in gold equities that has already occurred, any market sell-off should not prevent the gold equities from rising with a rise in bullion. Afterall, I presume that is one of the reasons that many stockholders are holding gold equities is to hedge against such a sell-off. And it is encouraging to note in this regard, gold equities have not responded to any recent general market sell-offs. Thus I disagree with Prechter et al in their theory that gold stocks will significantly sell off with a substantial downturn in the market notwithstanding a rise in bullion. I believe this will occur only if gold equities have a significant rally beforehand.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 18:14
Larryn disagreement>(disagreement):
MIKE.. Big disagreement with your 16.44:

The amount of money available is a major influence on an economy. No money ( barter ) will kill an economy. Too much is hyper-inflationary. Changes in between will affect growth, investment, deflation, inflation, and value of the currency. Please clarify at your convenience.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 18:11
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MIKEHARRY: The tulip called Semper Augustus sold in 1635 for 5500 Florins. A Florin is about half-dollar size. That would convert to US$2750 so my estimate is 137.5 ounces of gold. That is $43,862 today dollars. Got the tulip price from Extraordinary Popular Delusions, the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay, page 94 if you can get a copy. It is a great read.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 17:52
WW @New England>(@New England):
What is the motivation behind all the gold in the world still exists so dont buy mentality come from? Correction needed/ almost all of the supply is in jewelry and industrial uses which can be converted back into tradeable gold at 600 or 700 per oz. Centrals have less metals than 1980/ where were Barron's Santoli and Jimmy Rodgers then? How much do they have in outstanding gold loans which are not reflected as a current reduction in stated inventory/ with mines bragging about selling three and four years forward I would bet it is a huge sum. Fact is with no investment demand and Central Bank dishoarding/lending and massive forward selling the demonetization is over the key ques is when does re monetization begin?

Santoli and Rodgers are being hand maidens for WAll St by not comparing gold to paper creation and not recognizing that when gold becomes jewelry or is used for industrial us it is CONSUMED unless prices rise substantially to make the process of returning to tradeable form profitable. About 30-35% istradeable if it hasnt already been loaned out or forward sold.

Rumors of Rubins resignation and his apparent nervous about NAFTA may indicate the imbalances may soon become uncontrollable and he wants out but they are begging him to stay. The incessant attack on a pathetic gold mkt WHICH NO ONES OWNS OR WANTS TO BUY IS INDICATIVE OF the extent to which anything can upset the apple cart of the bubble markets. ( YOU ONLY ATTACK SOMETHING YOU FEAR OR RESPECT NOT SOMETHING THAT IS WORTHLESS ) . When the applecart is tugged a flys amount of demand will drive gold thru the roof as just a few climb on. The Centrals can sell all their stash at once and drive it down 10 bucks as the massive short positions are covered. The more the financial people talk down gold the MORE THEY MUST BE WORRIED ABOUT IT AND THE FINANCIAL PONZI SCHEME!!

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 17:51
Amigo digit@agau>(digit@agau):
I am not stupid!I want no silver and I do not want any gold. All I want is paper from Bil Clinton and Bob Rubin.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 17:45
Larryn once more, with feeling>(once more, with feeling):
MIKE Sheller...
Good comments, but I must clarify my position. I find myself in agreement with FUNDY and PANDA.

I did not mean to say that excessive printing of money was a good thing, just that it will be done before a deflation becomes a depression. ( Keynesian? )

In modern history, currencies devalue through inflation when too much paper ( debt ) is produced. ( I think we agree )

As an economy expands/grows by people creating wealth ( I agree with you ) , there will be a physical limit to growth unless there is enough money in circulation to provide liquidity for investments. If there is not enough money ( there is not enough physical gold to go around ) then deflation will occur due to lack of investment capital. Therefore govts must produce some money through debt. Too much is inflationary and too little is deflationary. The social/economic situation must be right for this debt to be accepted.

All major deflationary periods in the US for the past century were preceded by an attempt to balance the budget and pay off the debt. The debt can be limited, but it will never ( as in NEVER ) be paid off. Deflationary trends mean loss of jobs and result in removal of politicians, so there will be a large amount of govt spending to 'save' us from a depression.

The lack of inflation today has been brought about by the demand of dollars overseas as a reserve currency ( gold down ) , conveniently supplied by our trade deficit. This removes any domestic inflationary forces and allows us to pour all excess capital into the stock market while foreigners pay for our budget deficit. If foreigners stop funding our debt, interest rates will go up, US investors will partially shift to bonds, and the Dow will slide. Gold will quickly look much better to those central banks holding depreciating T-bills.

Dollars are kept as reserves only because foreigners think the US govt will exist long enough, and we will honor our debts. The gold price reflects the inverse value of the dollar to the rest of the world, and right now gold is in second place.

To be prepared for a disaster is a good thing, but to wish for one so you can say you were the only one on the block who predicted it, is stupid. If someone finds himself cheering for financial collapse bringing on chaos and revolution, you have lost it; take a break, breathe deep and start over.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 17:45
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NAILZ, PANDA: I have had that Dow30/gold chart in my head for a while but never saw it in print until today. The more I look at it the more it rings true. Notice October, 1987. It is telling you to stay with stocks and not to worry. That was the right advise but I doubt that I would have had the stomach to take it. It would have had you out of stocks in the Nov. 1990, dip.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 17:42
panda @>(@):
NotaGoldbug -- Worden Brothers does primarily stocks and some indexes. They carry Comex ( NYMEX? ) silver and gold ( cash ) prices. One of the things that irritates me no end, is that they don't carry the HUI Amex gold Bugs index. HUI is the unhedged producers index, where as the XAU is predominantly hedged producers.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 17:40
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day comparison and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors
PS: MILO....
We are in the SAME boat, so I will PRAY for you,
IF, you will PRAY for me!

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 17:31
Panda, Thank you for the responce about your data provider.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 17:25
Fred @Barney>(@Barney):

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 17:21
VIESERRE.........I believe your question was answered by your own comment as well as that of George Cole and me. The XAU is comprised of stocks...Stocks in general are in a bull market and they do not want to go down...They are being pressured down by the metal itself which is in a serious bear market....Now, ask yourself as I hope some others will do, do you wish to see the stock market tank ( turn bearish ) before gold begins its move upward ( turn bullish ) ....Should that happen, then the metals would have to drag the stocks upward. Remember what happens in a bear market ?All news is bad news. It will be the same for stocks as it is for gold now... Should both the metals and stocks be in a bull market at the same time, wonderful things could happen to those of us who hold mining shares.....BIG TIME PROFITS.....Come on gold bull...Begin before the end of the stock bull.....!!!!!!

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 17:20

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 17:10
mikeharry reality@check>(reality@check):
ONE question for Jimmy Rodgers, Peter Munk, Andy Smith Etc. : At the height of the tulip bulb mania, how many ounces of gold could you get for one tulip bulb?

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 17:03
Donald @Home>(@Home):
That Japan thing didn't work. Here it is: Insurance group to extend 200 bln yen to
Nissan Mutual bailout unit
The Life Insurance Association of Japan officially decided Friday at an
extraordinary board meeting to extend 200 billion yen to the new entity
that will take over the operations of the defunct Nissan Mutual Life
Insurance Co. But the industry group confirmed that it will not offer any
additional support if the new entity faces financial difficulties.

Demands that rules be established to regulate bankruptcy bailouts are
likely to increase, as policyholders remain worried about their
investments, industry analysts said.

Nissan Mutual Life Insurance's 300 billion yen in losses will swell further
as the firm has contracted policies which include personal pension plans
with high returns of about 5.5%, for which guaranteed yields were
lowered to 2.75%. The insurer will pay the initial claim total on fixed
insurance to policyholders.

However, holders of personal pension policies and some life insurance
policies will receive smaller claim and pension payments than were
initially contracted. The extent to which claims will be reduced is still

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 16:59
Donald @Home>(@Home):
I hope that these Japanese pensioners had some gold socked away.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 16:51
Donald @Home>(@Home):
More cheer from London. Gold: Not quite so 'precious' any more


Deborah Hargreaves examines the latest price plunge and finds
prospects gloomy

About of depression has enveloped the precious metals market as analysts
question whether gold, beset by tumbling prices, is losing its status as a
safe haven.

Governments and private investors have traditionally turned to gold during
periods of inflation and economic instability. But, with many central banks
selling off reserves, a significant change in the way the metal is valued could
be under way.

The price drop of $14 a troy ounce over the past 10 days was sparked by
the announcement that Australia's Reserve Bank had sold two-thirds of its
gold holdings over the previous six months. Prices slipped to a 12-year
low of around $318 an ounce and, in spite of some consolidation since,
most analysts believe the market will go lower over the longer term.

There is a genuine shock factor here, says Andy Smith, precious metals
analyst at UBS in London. If Australia, as a leading producer, is not
interested in holding gold, who is?

Australia is not alone. In recent years, central banks in Canada, the
Netherlands and Belgium have got rid of gold, while more recently there
was a serious row in Germany over a proposed revaluation of its reserves.
Moreover, Switzerland and Portugal have both said they will sell.

But what makes Australia's move such a blow to the market is that the
country's mining companies are important producers of gold and had
counted on the government to support prices.

Reaction to the Reserve Bank's action has been bitter. Australia's
Association of Mining and Exploration Companies said the cyclical
downturn in the market had been made worse than it would have been.
The World Gold Council added: For a leading producer to take
unnecessary actions that prejudice the well-being of a key sector of its
economy suggests a lack of sensitivity to the factors impacting the market.

Explaining its reason for selling - a decision supported by the country's
prime minister - the Reserve Bank said: While there was a case to hold
some gold as a contingency against unforeseen events, the previous
holdings - about 20 per cent of international reserves - were no longer

The Australian central bank hit out at its critics yesterday, blaming gold
miners and speculators for the fall in the gold price this year. It said the
money from the gold sale had been put to better use buying foreign
securities such as bonds.

If all central banks were to take the same approach, however, the market
would be awash with gold and the price would plunge.

The holdings of central banks differ widely. Around 73 per cent of US
foreign reserves - or 261.75m oz - are in gold but Australia and Canada
now have only about 5 per cent.

M. Murenbeeld & Associates, a Canadian precious metals consultant,
estimates that if most countries were to cut their holdings to 10 per cent of
foreign reserves, an additional 618m oz would come to market - almost
the same as eight years' new supply from mines.

Smith compares the present-day gold market with silver a century ago. In
1871, about 80 per cent of the world's population had currencies
redeemable in silver. Ten years later, silver's monetary value had been
nearly obliterated.

Demand for gold depends so much on its value as a precious metal and a
safe haven - it has few industrial uses - that its price could collapse if
bankers start to lose interest.

Technical analyst Brian Marber, who charts the price of gold, says an
important pattern is building up which shows the price hitting $150 an
ounce over the long term. Smith himself believes it will drop below $300
fairly quickly.

Over the short term, the price could bounce back, but most observers
believe the longer term trend is far from promising.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 16:47
Donald @Home>(@Home):
This in from London.
Gold funds: Confidence slips away


By Jonathan Guthrie

Confidence in gold is ebbing. Its price has tumbled to its lowest for 12
years, triggering a corresponding slump in the prices of unit trusts that
invest in gold mining companies.

But while gold has fallen by 17 per cent over the past year, some gold
share unit trusts have halved in value. Graham French, manager of the
£21m M&G Gold & General trust, explains: Production costs are pretty
static. So, if profits decline, this has a geared effect on earnings per share
and thus on the share price.

French adds that, as a general rule, if the gold price drops 10 per cent,
gold shares drop 30 per cent. Save & Prosper's Gold & Exploration trust
has put this theory to the test. It has shed about 56 per cent of its value
over one year, according to HSW, the data company.

The £14m trust has been worst hit by gold's decline because it has a high
exposure to exploration companies - 40 per cent of its portfolio. These are
risky investments as share prices rocket or plummet depending on whether
a company strikes gold.

Exploration stocks - and the S&P trust - were buoyed earlier this year
when a Canadian exploration company, Bre-X, said it had discovered the
world's biggest gold deposit at Busang, in Indonesia. However, when the
claim was shown to be false, the shares and the fund began a steep
descent which has continued ever since.

French says the average producer breaks even when gold is at $317 a troy
ounce, just $3 less than the price at the end of this week. Companies in
countries where costs are high, such as South Africa, have been hit badly.

This helps explain the poor performance of the £200m Mercury Gold &
General fund, which is exposed heavily to South African stocks. It has
fallen by 46 per cent over a year, according to HSW.

The trusts that have best weathered the gold price drop are those that have
diversified into the shares of companies that extract other minerals.

M&G Gold & General would probably have slid more than 42 per cent
over a year without an increasing weighting towards copper production.
Gartmore Gold & International Resource, which includes oil companies in
its portfolio, has dropped just 23 per cent.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 16:44
Mike Sheller Baying@Fundy>(Baying@Fundy):
FUNDY: Now you're talkin. Simple - if there are only 100lbs of gold in the world, and it is used as money, then clearly a million dollars worth of gold would probably be less than an ounce in weight. To paraphrase Murray Rothbard, that great free market thinker, an increase in the money supply ( amount of gold in this case ) only dilutes the effectiveness of each gold ounce to do its work. The amazing, metaphysical truth is that IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT THE SUPPLY OF MONEY IS. ANY supply will do as well as any other supply. The free market will simply adjust by changing the PURCHASING POWER, or EFFECTIVENESS of each gold unit. There is no need for a planned or managed increase in the money supply. More money does NOT supply more CAPITAL. It is NOT more productive. More money does not increase economic growth. It only dilutes the monetary unit already in place. So, therefore, which kind of bottom line monetary unit would you prefer? A paper dollar backed by actual stuff - gold - or a paper dollar that can be printed at any time, in any amount, at anyone's whim? That is the question.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 16:41
panda @>(@):
nailz @14:08

Regarding coin shop friend, very interesting! The price keeps going down, but you can't buy the 'stuff' at the advertised price. What were those premiums called that you had to pay on those desirable imported cars a while back? ADMU, Added Dealer Mark Up? :- ) )

These are interesting times.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 16:38
panda @>(@):
Donald @13:35

They don't know the difference between a semi-automatic firearm and a fully automatic firearm with select fire capabilities. Why should they be any better at inflation, deflation, or 'dis-inflation'. :- ) )

Remember, if it bleeds it leads! Logic, reason, and intelligence got swapped for emotional response a while ago. Then again, what audience are they playing to? Something about the lowest common denominator is at work here.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 16:37
panda @>(@):
ted butler @10:52

I didn't mean to infer a conspiracy of sorts. It's just that sometimes, you can have a confluence of events that will lead to certain outcomes. Those who recognize those events early enough, can then use those events to their advantage and decide which outcomes are better for them. Something akin to being in the right place at the right time or recognizing historical opportunites falling in your lap.

I guess the point that I was trying to make is this; Some large mines or CBs started foward selling. Then other Central Banks and mines joined in as a way of getting revenue on a 'sterile asset' ( ? ) , or locking in future production. Lo and behold, most did not look at the larger picture as to what this derivatives game could lead to. Now we have much lower prices and lousy sentiment towards gold. So the speculators, seeing a well established trend, jump in the fray and push prices down further. The mines that lose are the high cost producers. They may shut down. How much does it cost to buy a closed mine? The high cost producers could be a source of added reserves when the commodity price rises due to a lack of supply. At some point, someone may figure this out and either sit back, or add to the fray ( say by, making comments in the press ) . No conspiracy here, just taking advantage of an opportunity presented by the 'market'.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 16:27
panda @>(@):
NotaGoldbug @10:48

Daily data comes from Worden Brothers. I use DBC for real time data/news.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 16:26
Skylark ABX and Munk>(ABX and Munk):
GOLDBUG, LAN MAN: I have held ABX for some time in view of Munk's reputation of bringing the company on as well as he did. But his recent judgment in Bre-x and now his recent comments call his judgment substantially into question. In Bre-x, not because he should have been aware of the lack of gold, but in the manner he attempted to gain control by political payoff, unlike PDG who proposed a direct offer to Bre-x. There is no doubt that the gold mining industry made note of that, and as a small community with long memories, it will not serve ABX well in the future. In addition, his most recent pronouncements must have turned heads in the industry as well. This lack of judgment is conspiculously glaring, does not speak well of the man, and IMO is not something that may be easily overlooked now or in the future by the industry.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 16:19
GBBI Most Wanted List>(Most Wanted List):

Goldbugs Bureau of Investigation, recent 10 most wanted list.

1. Peter Munk
2. Jimmy Rodgers
3. Andy Smith
4. Ted Arnold
5. The Bilderburgers
6. The CFR
7. Senator Fonze D'Amato
8. The Whisky Salesman
9. RBA
10. hep-rat-cat

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 16:02
Skylark home>(home):
LAN-MAN: I agree, I am already in NEM and intend to switch more into it at the next favorable opportunity. ABX does have a current favorable position with respect to its hedge, and that is what MUNK may be impliedly crowing about. But what he did not state is at the beginning of the year, he was also bragging about how the hedge position was reduced because of his expectation for a strong gold market, and the huge, huge loss ABX has taken because of this wrong call. Now who would want to give credence to his predictions now with that in the background is beyond me.

As to why others in industry have not responded, it is a good question. Probably most of them would like to keep to a low profile. And the negative sentiment in the marketplace discredits anyone who favors gold. But, I see management at RYO is touting their stock.

At least one knows where NEM stands regarding hedging. Those here who disfavor hedging by companies should consider swithing into this stock or other non-hedgers as a protest vote and put their money where their mouth is. It is no secret why NEM has replaced ABX on the institutional favorite list and why it recently has and will outperform ABX over the longer term.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 16:01
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust):
Lan Man: I agree with you if I were buying today, and I might soon, I would buy NEM rather than ABX. However, I have a much better opionion of Peter Munk than you do. He can get a bit cocky at times but he has done a magnificant job with ABX over a short period of time. I am not selling my shares and it is my biggest holding. And there were many people fooled on the Bre-x scam a la J P Morgan, the funds which owned 71% of the shares, many brokers, PDG, etc etc.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 15:54
Donald @Home>(@Home):
EB: A convenient way to trade the physical is CEF on the American Exchange. It is Central Fund of Canada and also listed in Barron's on the Closed End Fund page. They are 75% physical silver, 25% phusical gold. If you are looking for action though, look elsewhere. This stock is dullsville, but ultra safe.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 15:34
Goldbug Omega - 1>(
George Gold ( sic ;- ) Do you believe the CPI figures the Labor Dept is putting out? I shop with my wife for everything and I do not believe the 1.4% increase that they have put out so far this year. I belive the Clinton Adm. has turned these figures into an art form to promote the economy psychologically and they are succeeding in this area. The economy is doing well I will grant of course. The fact that taxes and other things are not in the CPI of course is a big laugh. And the core rate business is worth another big laugh as if energy and food are not really to be considered. And the media of course spouts this bit of insanity re energy and food as if it should be ignored. A laugh a minute I call it. The Labor Dept. admits they are making ADJUSTMENTS to lower the CPI doing what the congress did not do as enough people knew that was ridiculous. What a farce.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 15:21
Bob M>(
Wanted- Paving company needs cheap gold to use as roadbase to ashphalt on top off. Roadbase life expanded by use on non deteriorating gold. There is so much supply in the world ( according to Jimmy Rodgers ) lets drive over it..

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 15:03
Vieserre home>(home):
GEORGE COLE: I am in accord with your views that a key factor to look for in the future direction of Gold is how it responds to news, both favorable and unfavorable news. As well known, a key ingredient of any bear market is the failure to respond to favorable news. And when this reverses, it may be a signal that a bottom is at hand. I am still impressed with the relative performance of the XAU, and a question needs to be addressed as to why the XAU is not leading gold to lower levels. I have found it interesting that in this secular decline, bullion has generally led the way right from the get go. And I continue to ponder the significance, as the better performance of the XAU would appear to have bullish connotations.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 14:29
nailz ALSO AMUSED.....>(ALSO AMUSED.....):
AMUSED.... You sound like you are in the same camp with me. The markets will do what the markets will do. No financial disaster is needed for gold to rise. No war is needed. True enough, those things would assure a rise, and undoubtedly make the rise more volitile, but I do not believe they are the only way for a bull to begin.

I believe that an awful lot of mom and pop types are quietly laying aside a little gold and silver here and a little there. This grassroots accumulation should be good for the long haul as the base of holders is much wider than it was in say, 1980.

Best of luck to us all regardless of why we believe in the shiny yellow!!This stuff has been good to me and I hope to have another shot at a long bull to see if I have really learned something from history!!!!! Surely all these grey hairs are the result of some education.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 14:14
George Cole inflation dead?>(inflation dead?):
The financial press these days is full of stories heralding victory in the war against inflation. I have long felt that such a victory declaration is a necessary ( but not sufficient ) condition for the next big gold bull,

Interesting that gold manaaged to rally Thursday and Friday despite an incredibly negative press and Peter Monk's assertion that the price could drop to $280. Gold will have to ignore much more bad news before anyone can say the bottom is in, but these could be straws in the wind.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 14:08
ALL.....AS I have said before, I believe that all the negative press and media coverage gold is getting right now will actually be bullish in the long run...Lots of people are looking for places to park some money for a while.... There seems to be a lot of money out there right now...DOW MONEY? ..People may be up to their ears in debt, but they have money in their pockets...

I have several friends who own coin and jewelry shops and they tell me they cannot get enough bullion to sell....One said Thursday that he was selling about 10 times his usual rate.....The physicals are still hard to come by and the premium over spot has increased by up to $10.00....He said that no Eagles were walking into his store and he was having to place orders for coins every day....

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 13:54
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
For those interested in mine closings and gold prices here is a spot to start--- originally posted on K2.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 13:49
Goose GVC & bbfisher chart..>(GVC & bbfisher chart..):
Your chart interpretation of bbfisher Gold Chart... Most interesting.. Maybe called the sling-shot effect..

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 13:48
cherokee @the-lake>(@the-lake):

the san juans? yes, i've been deer hunting and snow skiing many
times in that area of colorado. we used chama and tres' piedras
as base camps for the hunting trips. in fact, san antonio
mountain at 10908 feet was one of the most productive areas
of all. never left any trace of our incursions except tire
tracks. i do believe we are at, or very close the bottom.
i've been buying options ( dec 400 calls ) every chance i get.


being a student of history and the written word does not a fatalist
make. having two young children ( 6 & 9 ) symbolizes my hopes for the future. ALL things should be considered. stick your head in the sand,
and you may look-up and find your body is gone! my spiel on the
various conflagrations around the world does not mean happiness has
escaped me. quite the contrary. we live in an extremely complicated
environment, with too much diatribe and innuendo. happiness is having
god, family, and all the rest, in their proper order.


i'm currently crawling out onto the proverbial limb with some
predictions about the up-coming el-nino, and possible effects.
they will be posted very soon. argentina has set aside millions
of $$$$$ to help pay for the up-coming weather related flux and chaos.
we should do the same. our current growing season for the grains has
been almost perfect, barring the late freeze we had. can we expect this to continue? i think not. the effects from el-nino are in-bound.
drought? floods? i believe we will see a heat wave, and accompanying
drought. for every action, there is an equal, and opposite reaction.


let the cb's sell all of their gold asap! this will only increase
the opportunities for ALL gold-bugs!! i hope gold goes to $200.00oz.
this will assure an exponentially larger re-bound. consider the
immutable law of nature again, for the nth time, ----

for every action, there is an equal, and opposite reaction!!!

this law of nature pertains to, and is evident in EVERYTHING.
consider the pendulum effect. does anything remain unchanged?
what happens in nature? there are great swings of feast and famine.
can it be perceived as changing due to mans' will? hell no!
manipulation will increase the force of the blow that is inbound
for the sellers and manipulators of money. ( paper and gold )

cherokee!; ) having more fun than is possible for some-one who delves
into political and world-wide turmoil! let the wind whistle,
let the storm shreik, cherokee is above it all in the
smoke-signal-mobile for the benefit of all who are awake
enough to realize, ------

no one KNOWS AS MUCH AS YOU think they do!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 13:45
Lan Man @YouCanKeepABX>(@YouCanKeepABX):
Skylark: Agree with your post. PMonk has been very unimpressive as an industry representative since he brought in the x-pres and pm for that indofolly takeover. And his current rumblings in Barrons as well as that spot on CNBC the other day, well, do I want to invest in a company that has a jerk like him in charge? Naw, almost wish that they were not such a big part of the XAU...

One question that I have been kicking around is why have we not heard from many other North Amer. CEOs? I think that the guys in Australia deserve a round of applause for at least appearing to standup for their industry and shareholders - re anger over AU-CB gold sales.

We can all vote the way we feel by keeping those ABX shares, or by selling as I did and buying other ones. Heck, ABX has already gone through their growth phase. The upside potential just isnt there, not compared to NEM etc.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 13:35
Donald @Home>(@Home):
PANDA: Re your 10:29. The financial press has been talking about disinflation which seems to mean reduction in the rate of inflation from whatever it was, 14% in 1980, to zero. I don't think the press understands the difference. They haven't focused on the destruction that will take place with a 1930's type Honest-to-God deflation.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 13:19
miro @forward sales used not only in gold mining>(@forward sales used not only in gold mining):
While I am not very knowledgeable in forward sales used by gold mining
companies I know more about this concept used by hi-tech industry. What
I see is very troubled waters ahead and a very negative impact on a stock
market. It is an accepted practice to book revenues with anticipation
that they will realize within a year ahead. E.g., system integrator gets
a large contract which will be executed over next few years. Part of
this is booked the rest of it goes into revenue projection. Integrator
signs a contract with hardware and software companies and they use the
same approach with booking and projecting their revenues. Hardware/software
companies close OEM agreements with other companies for
a few years ahead discounting the price based on anticipated volume. All
of them book these revenues and include them in projections. Companies
go ahead and borrow the money required for operating expenses and bubble
just grows.
This game goes into extremes due to inflated stock market and investors
anticipation and extreme pressure to fulfill these anticipation. If
anything goes wrong in this food supply chain and the revenue don’t
realize the stock plummets. Even if nothing went wrong this approach is
highly sensitive to inflation. You booked your revenues a year ahead, if
inflation jumps by a few points that effectively eats up your revenues
and profit as inflation pushes your expenses up. I think that’s one
reason for Feds trying to keep inflation down any increase in inflation
will burst this book ahead game and destroy the rosy picture about the

Events like the one described in Barron’s article about high-tech stocks
saying that the Y2K problem is draining so much money out of budgets
that there is no money for hardware will burst this bubble. I see a lot
of money reprogramming where the existing contracts for the new
development are put on hold and money channeled into Y2K work.

The point I am trying to make is that the situation may be even worse
outside the gold mining industry and when the things start unfolding
there will be a lot of blood on a steer and the picture won’t be pretty.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 13:14
GVC @bbfisher's gold chart>(@bbfisher's gold chart):
Just my interpretation of the bbfisher gold chart ( FWIW ) :

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 13:06
Mikeharry onemore thing>(onemore thing):
Hey, maybe we could all campaign for DeBeers to try to tie up all the gold mines in the world, and corner the market. These guys would put things right. Gold would surely sparkle again.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 12:57
mikeharry fed@up>(fed@up):
Well a negative piece on gold in BAROONS. Maybe this really is the bottom. Munk has spat in the eyes of all gold investors. Their arguments as to why gold will go to $250 could just as easily be used to explain why gold could go to, say, $25 or even lower !!
Does anyone have an estimate of the market cap of all gold mining companies in the world ? I have heard + or - 100 billion USD in the past. Must be a lot lower now. Just curious.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 12:56
amused @fundamentalists>(@fundamentalists):
nailz: your comment about the news being interpreted good or bad depending upon whether the particular market is a bull or bear is just another point towards the argument in favor of TA. Fundamental analysis is useless as the news can be manipulated in any way that suits the market. The market will do what the market will do, period!

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 12:45
EB buying the physical>(buying the physical):
ALL: Many have posted good places to buy the physical - one in particular seemed easiest of all. A few $ over spot + s&h. Or they can even store it for you. Me pops has been talking to a few guys since this big bear run and now he is getting more and more interested.

One more thing...they are telling him the ways one should be diversified in the physical w/ numismatics to bars etc. I have heard it hear and elsewhere that the portfolio should be around 8% PM's. Can I get some opinions on this again Please? I know this is a FAQ. But stuff always gets re-hashed here anyway. Much obliged!



Knowledge is power?... how about

Doubt grows with Knowledge.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 12:31
nailz EXACTLY !!!!!>(EXACTLY !!!!!):
GEORGE.....Exactly !!!! In a bear market any news is bad news. In a bull market any news is good news....All you have to do is interpet for yourself how the reaction of news is for the DOW...Any news is interpeted as good news.....Some real crapola is interpeted as Super news....Then look at gold and the news....Its all interpeted as bad.....There is more to come....And then, someday, somehow, perceptions will change. BE READY !!!!

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 12:18
Skylark ABX>(ABX):
As an ABX shareholder, I find Munk's statements extremely offensive. Not because what he states is true or untrue, not because he is not entitled to his personal beliefs, but because as a Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of one of the world's largest gold companies, Munk has a duty to not trumpet personal opinions on the world stage in his role as officer of the Company which are detrimental to ABX and its shareholders. Moreover, if he voices such opinions, he has an equal or greater duty to also disclose those reasons why one should be an investor in gold or his company, as he trumpeted in the ABX annual report only a short time back. The next headline I expect to read is Gold Producer Advocates Selling Gold Having breached this duty, I have lost respect for the man as well as the company which he represents.

As a side bar, it is interesting to note that NEM is outperforming ABX even though it is unhedged.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 11:43
George Cole--O.K. I see what you are getting at now. Thanks for the clarification.


Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 11:21
bb fisher error>(error):
i guess you can only load one file per post

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 11:20
bb fisher 2 more>(2 more):
see icons for gold.gif 74-97, platinum.gif 68-97

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 11:11
George Cole news>(news):
Geff: You just proved my point. The BRE-X fiasco was very bullish for bullion, but gold went down regardless. Good news ignored. Another example was gold's failuer to rally much after Hashimoto's comments.
Potential good news ignored again. But bullion plunged after the Australian sale was made public -- it responded very quickly to bad news.

I think most on this site know what kind of news SHOULD BE bullish or bearish. And when bullion starts to rally on good news and ignore the bad news, that will be the time to bet the family farm. But until that happens the trend will be flat to down.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 10:52
ted butler forward sales>(forward sales):
Vieserre - thanks for the info.

panda - I'm not as knowledgible as many here on the specifics of mining companies, but I don't think there is a conspiracy by any in the mining industry to use forward sales to intentionally drive the price lower to lower the cost of potential acquisitions. That's not to say some won't take advantage of the situation.

In fact, I'm not convinced of any conspiracy theory regarding forward sales and metal leases. While I think these devices have definitely manipulated and will manipulate prices of precious metals, I'm inclined to believe that it's a result of the excessive use of an idea not well thought out. Although I'm convinced the arrangers of these transactions have a pretty good handle on what's going on - I believe the CBs and Mining cos are just plain dumb. They are looking at a cash flow they never had before and have not thought thru the consequences. After all, they have a lot of company and nobody's complaining ( except me as far as I know )

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 10:48
Panda: Your charts are great! Who is your data provider?

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 10:29
panda @>(@):
auroelf -- I'll move those lines around and see how I can 'make 'the future' come out the way I want it to. :- ) )

Seriously, I'm not so sure that the spike down in bonds is a 'new trend'. There is too much talk of deflation in the financial press. If this deflation is real, it should scare the HELL out of everyone! I've talked to co-workers about this, and think it's great! Lower prices, they say. To which, I ask, how do we get those lower prices? Usually, they mumble something about OTHER peoples wages going down ( not theirs, of course! ) . Which leads to my next question, How do those wages get knocked down? That's when I get the dumb look, again. The answer is simple, you fire the workers and in a year or two you ask them if they want a job... At half their former salary. It does work!

This is why I believe the Fed would fight very hard to prevent such an occurrence. Then again, built in to that assumption is that the Fed is acting 'correctly'. Given their history, that may not be a good bet. Politically, deflation/depression is an extremely unpopular thing. Therefore, I would expect lots of credit or paper to be created to forestall the inevitable. Just my humble opinion.


Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 10:11
panda @>(@):
All -- Thanks for the positive comments on the charts.

ted butler -- Do you see this forward selling as a way to drive the higher cost mines under, or make them take over targets by the majors? It would be a hell of scheme to consolidate the mining industry. Could an oligopoly be coming in the gold mining industry?

I noticed the other day Echo Bay ( ECO ) went up about 15% in one day on heavy volume. It gave back most of those gains the next day. Kloof mines ( klofy ) has bounced up from very low levels. Most of my data dosen't go far back, but but a lot of the South African share are approaching their 1993 nadir. To me, this downturn in gold will probably spur a series of take overs of the higher cost mines for reserve purposes. There could be some SPECULATIVE plays here. As for the bottom in gold being in, I don't know, but the spike down sure looks impressive on the monthly chart.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 09:58
Vieserre home>(home):
TED BUTLER et al: There is reportedly a definitive book on gold hedging practices at the following site, in the event you may be interested and not aware of it.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 09:55
panda @charts>(@charts):
bb fisher -- Great Gold/Dow-30 ratio chart! I see that you're using Super Charts. Normally, what I do is click on the 'Copy active window to clipboard' icon, then open a drawing program that I have. I then paste from the clipboard to the drawing application. Next step is to export the file in a .gif format. This final file is what I upload to the Kitco ftp site. Hope this helps some.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 09:51
ted butler>(

Just read your excellent question on forward selling by mining cos. I am surprised more people don't question them. For the sake of all, I am not going to rehash the whole story here - as vronsky indicated, there's a lot on gold-eagle. But just to be clear, forward selling ( as it is practiced today ) is inherently corrupt. The mines only sell forward cause they get cash up front ( bribes ) from the cash proceeds of metal loans. The central banks couldn't lease out their metal unless there was some appearance of getting the metal returned. That's where the mining companies come in - they promise future production ( forward sales ) . Forward sales and metal leases are inseperable. Due to the extent of the volumes of each created, they are fraudulent because they can't possibly be collectively honored as called for. In addition, they are the main explanation for the current depressed prices and will be main explanation for the coming disorderly conditions to the upside.

A few points. In no other commodity ( just gold and silver ) would producers pre-sell such awesome quantities of future production. In fact, there used to be a key principle of commodity futures law that only allowed an exemption from a position limit ( the largest position one could hold ) for a real producer or consumer to hedge up to one years' actual production or consumption. The thinking was who could project beyond a full year and also more than that could unduly influence current prices. Since these forward sales are done off-board and are by definition secretive, those rules and thinking don't apply ( overlooked because metal leases generate cash up front ) . The simple question is would the mining companies be selling forward in such quantities if they weren't given cash up front?

Second, where do the mining companies get the prices they claim to have sold at? All I remember is gold being stuck at 10% of 370 for 10 years for 90% of the time, yet every mining company claims sales between 4-500. Why don't the earnings reports reflect that? As Glenn says, bullshit.

Lastly, I see no way the hedging mining cos won't get killed when prices finally explode. In sum, forward selling has hurt all the mining companies by depressing the price currently, and will hurt the hedgers in the end. Another great wall street financial innovation.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 09:28
Steve - Perth, Western Australia>(
BILL BUCKLER: Excellent Editorial on Gold. As a financial planner, getting
my client's minds around that paper is not backed by the Government at all, is hard to break through. Question is, why the seed change all of a sudden The Bilderberger crowd aren't totally dumb. To destabilise the general population about their currency is pretty serious. ( even though we know it is a fact ) .
PANDA: I will hang fire on the charts. Let's see where the bonds go in a couple of weeks. Keep up the good work, chartists ALL. Greatly appreciated by the rest of us.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 09:25
Donald @Home>(@Home):
bb fisher: Yes, there is no reason that we could not move back to the 1966 ratio of 29ish. But, let me point out that there was a sharp intra-day reversal at 10:30 AM on July 8th. We started that day at 24.67, spiked up to 25.06 and sharply reversed to 24.66. Just by a whisker it qualifies. The ratio has dropped since then. The next few days will be crucial. In any event, we are in rarefied air here. I feel safer with gold than with stocks by a long shot.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 09:13
To George S.C. regarding your news comment: The problem with judging how gold reacts to news is that there has been no hint of general agreement among investors as to if news is good or bad. For example Bre-X. When they announced that they didn't really have any gold to speak of ( theoretically a HUGE decrease in supply ) the bullion tanked. Just a casual read of this site alone tells me that there is no concensus regarding a news item being bullish or bearish, so I am inclined to think that your post on this indicator has little practical utility. Perhaps you could illustrate with some clear example ( s ) for the edification of those like myself who don't get it.


Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 09:01
bb fisher cheers>(cheers):

not necessarily. if gold stays in the 320-350 are for the next few months and the dow moves back towards its 1966 high watermark we might well see the dow reach 10,000 by autumn. then if the dow falls back to say, 10x gold next year what are we at 400 and the dow at 4000. i do not intend to depress you only point up the witticism from benjamin disraeli 19th century british prime minister who stated:

lies, dammned lies and statistics

don't put too much fervor into the numbers. i certainly have and it hasn't always ended pretty. look at the whole picture.
oh, and by the way i am not a gold bull or gold bear. i do however think that the gold shares will make the sensible some nice profit towards the last 4 months of the year. where bullion is going i don't have a clue. as far as the gold shares to look at....find those that have not hit new lows....abx,glg,cbj,bgo,au come quickly to mind tho there must be others.

certain south africans look positively free like blyvoor, driesfontein and kloof.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 08:59
Skylark Reporting>(Reporting):
The following comments off a wire is beleived worth considering.

While further shortcovering may ensue next week, as the gold market
works off its technically oversold condition, sentiment remains
bearish, analysts said. Long-term cycle analysts seen gold staying
weak into October this year, when the end of a 60 year cycle may
present a major buying opportunity for gold equities in particular.

There is no question in our minds that gold stocks will be a
better buy than either gold or silver once the final lows are in
place, Gann-cycle analyst and Past, Present, Futures newsletter
editor, James Flanagan, said.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 08:54
When gold and gold stocks can ignore the bad news for a weeks the bottom will be in. Market reaction to news and sentiment is the key factor.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 08:46
Donald @Home>(@Home):
bb fisher: That is a wonderful chart, just what I had in mind. If I read it right it proves the point...the jig is up for the Dow.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 08:36
bb fisher cheers>(cheers):

one dow30/gold form 1974-friday in gif form. the weather here in the UK is wonderful time to work in the garden.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 08:34
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Mike Sheller: so lets say there is a hundred pounds of gold on the globe and it backs all currencies. You want to borrow $1 million dollars to build a new factory. Increase human productivity etc. Where do they get the money from? Do you wait until a million dollars worth of new gold is mined. Or does the existing 100 pounds get revalued by $1 million dollars to give you your loan?

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 08:27
auroelf bond chart>(bond chart):
panada: I'd move the green bottom line down to fit the data. A fact is a fact; chart it. The rate rise back to 7.2% and then higher is a long way down the road, it appears. If the triangle turns into a banner this year, we could be in for a long wait. Aberration? Human psychology often is. Witness the Dow. But it is real, it is happening, and we need to chart it truthfully to let the picture help us diagnose it.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 08:13
bb fisher troubles>(troubles):
until i can figure out why uploading my charts to the kitco server destroys all the graphic colors of the originals i will attempt to compensate ( rather poorly in my opinion ) for this deficiency. see the XAU chart for art the icon below for one possibility of the latest drop in bullion.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 08:10
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Auric: The stuff at this site is fabulous! I had no idea that was there. Thanks. Now I need a rainy day to work on it.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 07:57
Donald @Home>(@Home):
bb fisher: I am trying to construct a chart that shows the Dow-Gold ratio as far back as I can. For the years that gold was fixed at $20.67 or $35 that is no problem but I lack free market figures. The reason I like the ratio is because the Dow number alone is distorted by inflation. The CPI adjustments only go back part way, are suspect of government tampering and show an after the fact number. By using the actual market price of gold I believe we obtain a true reading of the inflationary expections of the economy. The expectations are more important than the final actual number because they give you an insight into the markets ahead of time. Investors act on expectations. On September 3, 1929, we had a ratio of 18.5, in 1966 it reached 29, in 1980 it was down to 1.0. Today it is 24.58. By tracking the number on a regular basis I think you get a feel for the trend. After the trend is determined you can adjust your portfolio to stocks vs: cash or gold accordingly. The ratio seems to show the level of mood and the mood trend. I think is will prove to be a valuable tool. I don't think that a daily reading is required. Monthly would seem to be sufficient. Let me know what you think.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 07:52
Auric This is better >(This is better ):

Donald and all--History of gold prices from 1800s to present, London fix. ( click on blue ) http:///gold.londonfix.html

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 07:40
Auric @ OOPS!>(@ OOPS!):

My 07:35 post--That piece was NOT written by Dr. Freidman. My error. It still gives the relevant data.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 07:37
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Francois: There is a negative article about high-tech stocks also. They say that the Y2K problem is draining so much money out of budgets that there is no money for hardware.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 07:35
Auric @home>(@home):

Donald and all--Here is a piece by Milton Freidman ( Friedman? ) . Talks about gold from 1948 to the present. I hope I copied this right!

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 07:06
François pessimism@maximum>(pessimism@maximum):
I will have to get Barron, then.
The more pessimism there is at this time, the better--- we will reach the true bottom for gold sooner than later and this maximum pessimism might tip us that the bottom might be in. A positive article in Barron would have had no effect on gold ( IMHO ) but a negative one is better ( IMHO again ) .
I remember Abelson ( Barron ) who, for 2 weeks in a row, discussed why compaq should not do well: over the next 8 weeks Compaq went from 80s to 125: not bad for talking a stock down.
Let's now watch the contrarians and risk takers buy bargain gold stocks.
Good luck all

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 07:02
François pessimism@maximum>(pessimism@maximum):
I will have to get Barron, then.
The more pessimism there is at this time, the better--- we will reach the true bottom for gold sooner than later and this maximum pessimism might tip us that the bottom might be in. A positive article in Barron would have had no effect on gold ( IMHO ) but a negative one is better ( IMHO again ) .
I remember Abelson ( Barron ) who, for 2 weeks in a row, discussed why compaq should not do well: over the next 8 weeks Compaq went from 80s to 125: not bad for talking a stock down.
Let's now watch the contrarians and risk takers buy bargain gold stocks.
Good luck all

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 06:57
Mike Sheller Ok, uno mas>(Ok, uno mas):
LARRYN: ( Friday 19:26 ) : Your confidence in a governmental sea of script to paper over a financial catastrophe ( government created no doubt ) belies an incomplete perspective on the past. Must have slept thru history. Check out the devastation to economies perpetrated by massive inflations everywhere. There's no lack of evidence showing how this just worsens the problem and staves off recovery. All the MORE reason to have some gold, or a shovel.
FUNDY: I am not a survivalist or a storer of weapons and food ( except for a few cans of tuna fish and some black bean soup ) . But I do not deride those who do. There's nothing wrong in being prepared for anything that could happen. As for expansion of currency to fuel economic growth, that is not economics. A gold backed currency need not have more put in circulation. As more gold is mined, the NATURAL rate of increase will suffice. If NO gold is ever mined again, the remaining gold becomes worth MORE and MORE as human productivity increases production and wealth. Work and production is the true wealth. The unit value of the gold just buys more as more is PRODUCED by human ingenuity. It is not gold, OR paper that creates wealth. It is people.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 06:50
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Barron's has a VERY negative story on gold by Michael Santoli.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 06:46
Mike Sheller love to look @ charts>(love to look @ charts):
BB FISHER, PANDA: Nice charts. Never tire looking at them. That bond chart back to '80 is a monster puzzle. Are we heading into a 5th wave? Is that a double top, soon to be challenged as a triple top? The bond is a big key, but so is the Dow Utility Average. BB - do you have a longterm chart of the Dow Jones Utilities? This is a wonderful leading indicator. Better than a crystal ball! PANDA: On your gold chart, the divergence between current price and the 30-day moving average is now so extreme, that even if this is not the ultimate bottom for the overall move, this is a resistance point that will likely hold for some weeks. I say this IS the dip.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 06:27
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Gone to get Barron's. Back in 20 minutes.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 06:24
Donald @Home>(@Home):
bb fisher: The background is white. No text shows on what I see here except red text at the top.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 06:16
bb fisher cheers>(cheers):
my gold data in byte form begins in 1974, silver in 1963, palladium in 1977, platinum in 1968. my share data in byte form depending on the share begins in 1970 and forward. my share data in papaer ( chart form0 begins depending on the company in 1934. i also have most futures only back to 1959 in byte form, further in paper.

can anyone tell me why uploaded tbond chart belwo is washed out of all colors, dates and text. the text and dates should be white, the backround should be black. only the line and those i have drawn show up.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 06:08
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Dow-Gold ratio 24.58 on Friday close. Tuesday still stands as an historic high. Have we made a nearly two decade turn?

bb fisher: Do you have gold price data back to 1901 also, or back to when it was free market priced?

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 05:52
bb fisher oops>(oops):
pardon the chart. something went wrong on the colors. i will attempt to figure it out and repost.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 05:50
bb fisher>(
Panda and others interested:

click the icon to see the t-bond chart monthly from 1980. the pattern is quite eye opening. additionally my database goes back decades in some case like the dow 30 to 1901 if any of you have any requests post them or send me a note and i will try to oblige.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 05:13
Jack Can't get it right--maybe this time? then quit>(Can't get it right--maybe this time? then quit):


Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 05:09
Jack Can't get it right>(Can't get it right):


Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 05:07
Auric clarification>(clarification):

Savage--They bought gold this week.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 05:05

Bob Rubin appeared nervous when questioned about NAFTA tonight. Perhaps he felt that those guys didn't have it in them to understand high finance? Some info from F.T.
Hippocampus? Is that what F.T. thinks of Congress?

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 05:02
Auric @home>(@home):

Savage--In the FWIW dept.--A colleague at work has been chiding me ( good naturedly ) about my gold outlook for the last year, or so. Today, he told me that his father and he bought heavily into gold. Shocked the s h double t out of me.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 04:22
Roebear @Chocolatetown>(@Chocolatetown):
Those of us more fortunate, rising early to work on a beautiful summer weekend, salute the rest of you who have off. Poor devils. I get to move a million pounds of a commodity that is consumed, chocolate, today. Have a great weekend all. Down the rails and Happy Trails!

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 04:05
Jack NAFTA brings only modest US growth>(NAFTA brings only modest US growth):

RJ: go to
front page, top right. NAFTA brings only modest US growth.
What was this about all the jobs it has created?

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 03:54
Roebear @Cherokee>(@Cherokee):
Cherokee, do you do anything with El Nino forecasts since you are active in commodities. I'm looking for info coming winter. For forecast maps el nino/la nino check out:

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 03:48
The Martian's Using Rover's communication system>(Using Rover's communication system):

Finally, after days of searching we found an earth internet provider that is in line with our thinking. Rover's communication system also works wonder's for us. Those airbags exploding scared the crap out of us, but now we are tracking you.

YES, WE DO LIKE GOLD________ and buy it all the time.

We take the earthling Andy Smith's remark as not politically correct and prejudicial to Mars.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 03:45
Reify @outlook>(@outlook):
Cherokee- Have you heard the old tune that bears your name. Whistle it sometime and be HAPPY. Nuclear shelters, the US military and government has a few holes to crawl into, and who knows about many other leaders on our little planet. I really prefer happier thoughts. Am a pessimist anyway, so why aggrevate ourselves with conjecture or speculations, even more.

Think happy thoughts, is my theme for the moment. Just married, looking for our favorite metal to keep rising, and learning more and more from all you sharp cookies out there.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 03:35
Savage relic>(relic):
AURIC: like gold? sympathies. We are brothers in all things antiquated.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 03:29
Auric @home>(@home):

Savage @ 03:25--Join the club. My handle represents a barbarous relic from the past!

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 03:25
Savage what would Daddy think?>(what would Daddy think?):
In USA Today; state news; Enterprise, Oregon: The Enterprise School Board has decided the high school's nickname,the Savages, is not politically correct and must be changed. So, my surname of 45 years has been judged and found wanting for any political purposes...Guess I'll have to change it to Smith or Johnson or...Clinton...that's it! Just call me J.D.Clinton!!!

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 03:03
Savage smokem pipe?>(smokem pipe?):
CHEROKEE: I was in the San Juans a couple weeks ago, and out in the middle of nowhere was a sign that read Cherokee, with an arrow pointing down a long lane, to a log cabin.... Your Getaway place?...Seriously, do you think the bottom is in?

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 02:52
Jack Business Times Artical>(Business Times Artical):

Scotty ( 23:04 ) The author of the piece Kenneth Gooding is a Mining Correspondent whose articals frequently appear in the London Financial Times. I assume that he is their South African correspondent. Most of his work is generally positive toward gold.
In one of his FT pieces, a total was given for Eurpoean CB gold holdings, eligible for sales -it was much lower than other's estimates- probably a typo I cannot remember the figure, it was so low that it astounded me.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 02:52
Savage 96...>(96...):
SCOTTY: re your 23:04...that story was from Dec. 01, on Front Page to find date...and, it was encouraging!... he said probably the first few months of '97!!! ( that's over, and DONE with ) .

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 02:41
cherokee @riding-on-some-BIG-shoulders.>(@riding-on-some-BIG-shoulders.):

i find a lot of the points ( rocks ) to be well thought-out,
and extremely thought provoking.

what is your thoughts on the underground nuclear shelters
that russia is building, even as they are unable to pay
their civil servants? how about the iraq/russia connection?
ww11 started in the same location that is now a hot-bed of
ethnic civil-war, and the west ( nato ) is going to police these
murderous rogues. this is absolute madness. we may as well
try to keep baleen whales from eating plankton!

natos' incursion into russias' sphere of influence is one of
the worst mistakes that could have been made. their ( nato )
assignation of themselves as world-wide policemen is equally
dangerous. our ( usa ) armed forces have been decimated by base
closings, budget cutting, and downsizing due to the perceived
lessining of external threats. the threat is greater than ever.
greed, indeed, will be the wests' undoing.

gen george patton stood on the edge of the razor blade at the
end of ww11. he knew russia had to be defeated to insure our
safety. his opinion cost him his job. he should have followed his

time will tell, probably sooner than later, that russia is the
greatest deceiver, and manipulator, of all time.

the dow 8000 post from patriot is absolutely a must read.
the url will be made available on a regular basis. read it,
use your own judgement, and make your own call. there are giants
everywhere, ride, ride, ride! ( jo jo gunne )

cherokee!; ) burner of the snake oil, just for the hell of it.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 01:12
Auric @ home>(@ home):

Good evening all. I just got in from work. Had a whole 12 hours away from the gold scene. My guess is the European gold selling stories will be a non event. I believe the gold price of $325 has anticipated this event. ( IMHO of course )

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 00:52
Reify @the world will buy>(@the world will buy):
Panda- your charts on gold, candle ( hammer bottom ) chart, as well as the bond chart breaking, I find very interesting. Have seen major resistance broken to shake the last do or die hangers on, many times in my life, only to see the charts reversing. I have felt for awhile, that bonds will look positive once more, before the big break, and now that it seems to be beginning, and gold may have bottomed, the final act, or scene, should begin.

As for 1/50 oz of gold being bought by many Chinese, of course, but why just Chinese, there's a big world out there, and the French, Arabs, Indians, just to mention a few, will also be buying gold in the future, for a number of reasons, not the least of which should be greed, and the desire to survive.

Am reading J. Adams global war comments. Interesting how each of us has a pet interest in a paricular subject, and we seem to see the world from our interest's perspective. I.e. a religious person, answers life's questions through his belief. A J. Adams, sees the potentials for war under every rock. A Mike Sheller, or A. Crawford, have their eyes to the heavens. Many here, like myself, with an ecomnomic background, or an interest in financial markets, see life unfolding from an economic upheavel. Together, we are all looking for problems developing in the future, as a result of what has transpired.
Our RJ's, Glenn's, Short Bulls's, Reif's, Oldman's see things unfolding short term, and wait to let the markets tell them, and may not necessarily care to speculate, like many here, on the future.

I have read comments, years ago, what happened in the markets, in the US, at the end of the last century, and I'm referring to the 1892-1896 bear market period, where the slow long topping action found the attitude of the populace decidedly pessemistic. Which is unusual for a top. Does this sound a little familiar, as we get closer to extremes

Have a great weekend, one and all.

Date: Sat Jul 12 1997 00:03
ark salted@core.bre>(salted@core.bre):
SCOTTY@2304: I wonder how many shares short those buggers
are that are spreading the stories about EB selling gold?
The Aus's didn't tell anyone when they were selling theirs.
Gold price may have a political factor but the politicos
surely aren't dumb enough to blow a whistle when they tell
the EB to sell gold. But then, it is a strange world. It is
smoke and mirrors by the big whales that want to eat all of
us plankton. I'm on the side lines waiting but the S.African
stuff was looking good today. Maybe Monday I'll bait up a
line and see what happens.

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