KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:59
TED @bedtimeforbonzo>(@bedtimeforbonzo):
EBN Gold has been gaining strength tonight and has now turned the corner into positive territory...up .20!...Goodnight all....you too Tarnished!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:55
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort: Got yer missive and I ain't no heavyweight either...Great description of last nights game!...were my thoughts....exactly!...Good luck with the broker...REB: Hats off to MJ!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:50
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Nailz ( 23:40 ) Good post...I've made the same mistake in the past by focusing on something in particular and waiting...and waiting...but the time just wasn't right for that trade or investment...


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:44
Eldorado @the question>(@the question):
Panda -- Re: your chart of 21:58; FWIW, There's a lot of ways to draw a line. You are right in that there is good support at that level. Doesn't particularly mean that it won't be busted in a fairly quick spike, or something more severe. It should be a good place to buy though. Any failure should be quickly, and maybe fairly inexpensively, be rectified IMHO. Some of us though are expecting some lower numbers. Perhaps, or not, they'll show up. But, presumably, your chart line wouldn't be off by far I think. But, I still like a spike, wherever it might go! Good Trading!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:40
nailz AMEN TO EARL>(AMEN TO EARL):
EARL.....AMEN !!!!! To capitalize to the maximum, we must be traders. There is money to be made in the markets at all times. Up and down. Grains and metals. Stocks and bonds. Meats and woods. There is a time and place for all commodities to shine and the same for all to be tarnished. The greatest mistake in my trading career is to become focused on one commmodity to the point of excluding the rest. We must continually have an eye toward those shining, but also to be considering our next play. That is a lesson learned from many years, some as a trader of the markets and some as a narrow minded person focusing on one area and waiting for its return to the limelight.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:39
TED @Capebreton>(@Capebreton):
EBN Gold @ UNCH and Silver down a cent....Front: I get unknown extension on file when I click on yer thingy....Steve Puetz ( 21:46 ) maybe I'm too laid back...hahahahaha!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:37
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
Bernie: Sorry chap - I'd surprise you. I had lunch with a
guy from Austrialia a few years ago. Texas BBQ from the Exxon gas
station in Junction Texas. He was picking my brain about a new recycling
technology we were developing. I wish I could remember his name - he was
chairman of the board of one of the largest companies in Austrialia.
He got his start in the cattle business - I remember something about the
ranch being the largest single cattle ranch in the world! When you're in
Texas - that's saying something. Maybe someone from downunder can help
me out. He would be close to 85-90 today. What are the 5 largest
publicly traded companies in Austrialia? His net worth was above 3 billion I was told.

Oh yea, he was searching the world looking for recycling technologies
to bring back to Austrialia. He said waste/garabage is a huge problem
there. I don't think he was there looking to make a buck - he was trying
to help. No one goes to Junction to make a buck. He was really
nice. If I wasn't told who he was or see the limo he drove up in I would
of taken him for a local. He did talk funny though.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:29
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70hr.gif

Looks like a local double bottom. Possible BUY point!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:28
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
D.A.: I harbor mixed emotions over your earlier comments regarding the recent level of goldbug solidarity. I am posting this in response to your comments but it really is an impersonal statement of opinion to all hands. A goldbug manifesto more than anything else.

The passions seem to me to running at familiar levels. The thread has been genuinely positive for the past week or so with a great deal of new opinion to pass through the filters. Judged various reactions, some was readily digested and some others were akin to pulling an elephant through a knothole. As it should be.

New thoughts regarding the near term state of gold seem to be accepted in a neutral sense. At the same time its a good thing for closely held opinions to given a good shake now and then. Mencken once said that a friend is Someone who shares the same superstitions. There is a real danger to becoming friendly if it means that we are unable to accept new superstitions. .... Rancor is obviously not the converse.

I have been a goldbug for far longer than it should be healthy to be one. I made a chamber pot full of money on gold stocks in 1993 and rode them right over the top and down again. Why? Because I'm ( was ) a died in the wool goldbug. Now, I'm a goldbug ( PMbug ) ONLY because it is be the place to be for some time to come. But I no longer clasp it to my bosom. It's all trade bait. To be bought and sold as circumstances dictate.

If we are truly headed for economic upheaval, then it would be prudent to consider PMs a long term hold. Maybe. If not then it becomes merely another trading vehicle. The only thing that should be bought and held, without regard to the future, is a cemetary plot. IMO.

My opinions have changed and will continue to change, in large part because of the great minds and opinions expressed in this forum and your's are among the best. If we have a lick of good sense, we will learn, more than we deserve, from those who violate our sense of comfort and order. Occasionally, we are also served well by those with whom we disagree. It would bother me a great deal to know that someone else would make the same mistakes, boneheaded mistakes, that I have made in the past because he did not have access to the best that others have to offer.

For the world of precious metals and a whole lot more, there is nothing in the known universe that compares with this forum. If it doesn't appear here, it will likely not appear anywhere else. I only wish it had been available in 92 and 93. If it had been, I would be able to present with a larger case of arrogance than is presently possible.

In the end, an honest difference of opinion regarding PMs; is far, far better than a continuous thread conducted by loose cannons posturing as champions of the downtrodden and/or the guarantors of our liberties,.... sans pro bono. Of course.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:27
nailz XAU CLOSE>(XAU CLOSE):
The only 2 XAU stocks doing well today on the close were BMG and NEM...XAU up almost.70 with gold down $2++....That added to option expiration day tomorrow made it smell fishy to me....


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:26
Vieserre home>(home):
EARL ET AL: I try not to post on the technical side of the market, preferring to leave that to those more skilled. But I would like to pass these comments on for your consideration.

Dow and S&P are making new highs in a parabolic sweep that have reached vertical lift while the Utilities have yet to come close to matching their 93 highs and the technology leaders which represent the major growth in the GDP are being distributed, displaying a pattern and cause for at least a sharp correction in the Dow.

News on what the FED will be doing in early July will begin to emerge in the Media. Although all present price reports makes for a rosy looking economy, the FED must consider the effect of emerging signs of impending inflation rising from an over-heated labor market, GDP output gap and wealth brought about by a sharply rising stock market which normally takes 12 months or more before being reflected in the PPI an CPI. What is FED to do? If it does nothing, these inflation forces will have more time to grow and the FED incurs the risk of being behind in the yield curve. In addition, the market will likely continue its irrational exuberance, if I may use this now trite phrase, making it more difficult to control any correction and the FED itself will increasing look like it has relaxed its guard against inflation and pandering to the political wing. If the FED surprises the market and elects to raise rates, how will this affect the afterburners of the Dow skyrocket and cannot the FED be concerned about being blamed for any blowout.

The XAU has been generally in a horizontal trading pattern since early may while bullion has been downtrending and the stock market rising. While bullion and silver settled near intermediate trend lows today, the XAU diverged higher and closed near its daily high and significantly higher from its recent low of 90+ and is approaching upper resistance of 106 with gold off over $2.00.

To me, these are all bullish possiblities for the metal. I take the approach that equities demonstrate a view of the longer term horizon while bullion the near term horizon. And IMO the recent relative peformance of the XAU should not be overlooked as it may be evidencing that investors with a longer term view are beginning to accumulate notwithstanding falling bullion, falling silver, an exuberant rising market, falling oil, rising bonds, declining CRB, and a parade of modest to low numbers on present inflation.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:15
QT @>(@):
EWP,,, I suppose it's too late to point out to you that it is only under the gracious beneficent protection , nuturing ethics of liberty and freedom which the Government provides your billionaire that he has his ability to exist. The Government allows him to exist. The Government can, and they are fickle creatures, these, choose otherwise.
All this take it-for-granted, feel-good pop culture shooting the mouth from the hip jingoism is too much to bear at times. It is dull and lacks vigor. I wish you'd stop it. It's beneath you. Think things through and then post something a bit more cogent, will you?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:12
Bernie Tax the 1%>(Tax the 1%):
EWP....A million people with 1million ( 1 billion ) also creates jobs and spends it in the private sector, probably much more efficiently and FAIRLY than the billionaire. I do not believe taxing the 1% super rich will create future obligations for the bottom 99%.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:07
nailz INTERESTING DAY FOR GOLD>(INTERESTING DAY FOR GOLD):
Couldn't believe XAU was running up on the end and just had to take a stab on the short side....With tomorrow being settlement on the options, figured the big boys had some options they needed to zero out at 105... Oh well guess tomorrow will tell....


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:01
EWP EWP>(EWP):
WW: and in 5 years that VAT becomes 0.25 and so on and so on ( and outpacing inflation ) .


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:00
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Nighty night all ... don't let the goldbugs bite.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:59
WW @New england>(@New england):
A 5-10cent VAT on everything would do alot more than the trick. Go figure the numbers based on the economy. Th problem is easily solved with the appropriate political will.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:57
EWP EWP>(EWP):
to Bernie .. Sanders or Ward?

A man with a billion dollars creates jobs or spends it in the private sector of the economy. A govt. with a billion dollars creates future obligation for the taxpayers.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:55
WW @New England>(@New England):
GO Bernie!!!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:54
EWP EWP>(EWP):
What about the fundamental actuarial problems of the system? You never answer those questions ( i.e. Does a current recipient get more than they put in, etc. ) .

A small tax that noone will feel? What small tax can come up with the money needed for the unfunded liabilities and the use of surplus funds?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:49
Bernie The 1%>(The 1%):
Whenever I hear on this discussion group how sorry we are for those
young people who must pay for current retirees who have not contributed
enough to pay for their entitlements..... it makes me SICK. WW has it
right! Where has the money gone? It has gone to the elite 1% of our
population the super rich. I doubt very seriously whether anyone on Kitco
has ever met one of the super rich, yet many on this site defend them,
why? This one percent holds 90% of the wealth. Please let me repeat
that, one percent owns 90% of the wealth. And if you believe they got
their money by just hard work, or by way of the fair capitalistic
system, I have a bridge to sell you. Ninety percent of this one percent
inherited money and cheated to create and increase their holdings. As far as I am concerned if you want to find money for future entitlements, tax this one percent until they are part of the next nine percent. What does one man do with more than 1 billion dollars anyway? After the first
billion it is all about power and ego.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:48
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Steve Puetz -- I'll be reading RJs rational next week for his reasons why the western financial system ( If I read that correctly ) will not collapse, with a very keen eye! I know of a lot of reasons why THEY don't want it to collapse, as well as any sane person wouldn't want it to. I'm really curious as to how they might, even remotely, pull it off! Comment ( s ) ?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:45
WW @New England>(@New England):
EWP: I AM AGAINST EVER!! RAISING TAX RATES ON ANYONE TO MAKE UP THE SS AND MEDI DEFICITS!!!! I am for stopping the raids and privatizing the system so people control their own money/ Granted this could cause some short term financing problems for the Feds. Absent that I propose a broad based tax which will be so small in effect on the ITEMS taxed that it will have almost no econmomic effect on demand for the items taxed. Not supplying SS and Medi will cause an Econ depression from its effect on reducing final demand. Further SS and Medi fraud should be punished by mandatory jail sentences. The price insensitivity caused by these govt programs is what is making Health care unaffordable. Addressing this issue should be NUMERO UNO!
I am for a small tax on things to fund the program and not a rate increase. This will only be necessary if the kitty continues under IOU attack.
Why use IOUs why not just mandate the buying of marketable Treasuries and let the retirees proportionately cash them in when they reach retirement? Hmmm...


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:42
Steve Puetz @>(@):
Good night all!! It's been fun, and interesting.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:41
QT @>(@):
Puetz,,, I am sorry. I must admit I was a bit harsh there. I mean we all know that strength, financial or otherwise, naturally implies a native intelligenge the lessor born simply must feel thankfull to be near. I suppose they feel safer, more secure. It harkens them back to some genetic memory of the tribe near the fire in the cave. They watched the alpha-male drag the apendage of some corpse in to warm it by the flame. Watched and waited until his/her time to have at it. And all the time they waited they probably thought about how much they were going to benefit by being a member of this tribe with the great hunter.
I have posed this in such a way that those Ayn Rand fans out there can run one way with it, the way of all great Leviathan's, and I have used the phrase tribe so the Marxian socialists, or the democratic federaliists, can see it as a parallel to the fiscal dilemas which haunt us to this day.

In all good fun, of course. However I digress. ( Isn't it really scarey sometimes when you notice how of the character of a site's dialogue can be defined by the degree of intellectual narcissism the inmates of the site allow? ) What I was really going to say was congrad's my boy. I read a great review of your TC in the Soldier of Fortune zine. The editor, has some Prussian sounding name as I recall, likened you to the Tom Paine of the mercenary cum militia back to the cavers set. Bit of an acolade that. I do think he went a bit overboard though. I mean your page position, opposite the cover story essay about the Waco/ McVeigh connections, was a bit declasse' if I may say so myself. But who cares really, at least the people who will survive the great collapse will have somethig to barter with over the corpse of this civilization you are so willing to toss aside out of hand.
Etcerata,,,
This really has nothing whatsoever to do with the metals which drew me here, but then on every picnic a little honey must be spread. Cheers.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:40
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Steve Puetz -- Re: your 22:26; Yes I do, at some point in time. Probably 'more' sooner than later. I would really like to know how it can be any other way! Anybody?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:39
Dennis 50Klight>(50Klight):
Steve; You said it: $20,000 gold. Squeeze you bet it is. Get off the bike what you say here goes into the archieves.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:39
Steve Puetz @ Eldorado>(@ Eldorado):
Yeah, but that gold-jet is getting closer to the take-off point every day.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:36
Steve Puetz @ Simple Simon>(@ Simple Simon):
Your idea is too simple and down-to-earth for the government to consider it.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:33
Steve Puetz @ Panda>(@ Panda):
Panda: The fact that retail sales have declined for 3 months in a row indicates that recession may have already started. Hence, the coming stock market crash is probably close-at-hand. The major part of all-but-one stock bears has been contained in the July-October period. A lot of people are looking for an October crash. However, July is just as likely.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:31
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Crystal Ball -- Gold may look like lead at this point, but like a Gooney Bird, it will eventually get its ass off the ground! and he'll be heading straight up to blue skys! Count on it. Just don't ask me how long of a run-way it'll need!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:28
panda @zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz):
Steve Puetz -- It seems I can't even spell correctly now! their = they're. With that said, and rhetoric flying, it's time to give the eyes some rest. Good night all and remember, Dow 4,893,485,645,436,345 is only a few days away! Buy now! Tomorrow is FRIDAY the 13th. :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) )


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:26
Steve Puetz @ Eldorado>(@ Eldorado):
Eldorado: In my community, my ideas are scorned and laughed at. Sometimes I feel the same way on this Web-site. But, it's nice to know that there are a few people out there that do think the same way I do. By your comments, I assume that you believe, as I do, that we are headed for an extreme deflation -- more severe than the 1930s.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:23
JohnC Brisbane>(Brisbane):
D.A.
Thanks for your reply yesterday on Forward buybacks.
I echo your comments that it does seem to be getting more bearish around here ( amazing at Kitco ) .
Also your SI Calls would have a nice low delta ready to go to work for you on any rally, good luck with the position.
Happy Trading All


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:22
Simple Simon Social Security>(Social Security):

Why doesn't the government buy half of the US gold
production with incoming Social Security Funds, that is;
before they give the rest away? It will help the real
value of the US gold stash rise and solve a part of the
problem.
Now rather than give the rest of those funds away, let
the indivigual invest the rest in Swiss Annuities, the
PM's, but under the same restrictions as IRA's and
401-K's. Swiss insurance companies are wise, our
government can demand, that they do not invest where it
will hurt.
Next, limit fractional reserve banking and pay off the US
Treasuries ( in increments ) with government issued money.
Then slowly return to a gold backed currency, or real
money.
Can't see $20,000 gold, because who would be able to buy
it, or we may be buying groceries using trucks formerly
used to haul ore from open pit mines.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:20
panda @>(@):
Steve Puetz -- I keep on wondering how much longer can this credit bubble be pumped up? The Dow, S&P500 and 100, continue to rise. The Amex oil index continues to rise even with crude falling. If you bought one XOI contract yesterday, ten minutes before the close ( June 420 Call ) and sold it today ten minutes before the close, you would have made $575 less commisions. Why work? Where did the 'value' come from? What's wrong with this picture? I know of one person who has about a thirty percent return so far, in an S&P 500 index fund, held less than a year. This is considered a 'good' return. Not, 'abnormal' return, just good. Interesting times are coming... Then again, maybe their already here.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:19
Steve Puetz @ Dennis>(@ Dennis):
Dennis: That fact that gold may rise to $20,000 may be somewhat misleading. It's not so much that gold will rise, but that the value of financial assets will collapse. Fear of default on credit-market instruments wiil be intense. Stock market losses will be unbelievable for most. The scramble to get into gold will be extreme. But with physical supplies so limited, gold will skyrocket. It will be a lot like the platinum squeeze of the past weeks -- only the squeeze will last for over a year.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:18
EWP EWP>(EWP):
WW: When does your raise tax rates theory approach a person paying most of their wages to support the govt? Is that good for economic growth and competitiveness in a global economy? Do you advocate cutting spending to make up for the use of surplus trust funds? About 143 billion in different trust funds were used last year mask the deficit size. Where would that be made up? Would you just have it as deficit spending?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:15
Novice @Port Credit>(@Port Credit):
Ted: Kristine's out tonight, eh? Thought you were unusually active on this site tonite! Hope she's not bein indoctrinated by Breton pinkos... BTW, a positive writeup on yer ABX in latest Incvestors Digest ( 6 June issue ) . Says Barrick cheaper than its peers, and performance should improve during second half of this year.

Overheard you and EWP discussing Bema and Arizona Star a bit here this evening, and who may be in line to acquire Star and the Cerro Casale property. Holding both BGO and AZS, I follow the SI Bema thread pretty carefully. While the betting there seems to be on PDG, a few have noted that Bema's Clive Johnson is in Europe right now at the same time Homestake's Jack Thompson is there too. The latter saying he's looking at acquisitions ( as well as further exploration and improved performance at existing operations ) . Will know sooner or later the outcome...and it better be sooner the way Star is sagging right now.

Oh, one final thing...we're of to the Bruce Peninsula tomorrow a.m. for weekend of shoppin'. I can hear the criticisms of me work ethic now...:- ) )


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:13
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Steve Puetz -- I thankyou for the fine regard you give to my understanding of of this dismal debt based, slaveryment, monetary system we currently live under. I too admire your postings! To a great degree! I would most certainly enjoy believing that 'there is no problem', as I'm sure most goldbugs would. I would also, and most certainly, enjoy a good discussion from one of those mentalities as to why there is no problem! If that person were REEEEEEALLLLLL good at the explanation, I might even be tempted to fall for it, except for the knowledge that ALL debt based systems already have their end written with their beginning! No ifs, ands or buts about it! So, maybe, one smart individual out there can set me straight, including my previous sentence. I would most assuredly welcome it! As always, lurkin' and ready! Steve, as why I do not post more, perhaps when Bart gets his 'search' up and going, you'll go back and peruse. I've got 'a few' back there! But, at times, one gets tired of so much duplication, as I said to Earl a few nights ago. Perhaps I'll again 'get with it'. Again, thanks!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:13
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Zeeb: come on ... it is a lot more than a little debt. I guess you feel it can just be inflated away?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:12
Steve Puetz @ QTb>(@ QTb):
QT: The function of government is to protect individual liberties. It has been proven time-and-again, that the more individual freedom people have in a nation, the more prosperous a nation becomes. Not only do the strong and intelligent, benefit -- but so do less talented people.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:11
EWP EWP>(EWP):
I apologize if people don't think the entitlement quagmire is not important to this discussion group. I think it is very relevant. Govt. will either choose a delationary or inflationary tactic to deal with it, IMHO rather than dealing with serious CPI adjustments and age requirements ( which would probably be somewhat deflationary itself ) . The deflationary approach to promote slow growth to keep interest rates and inflation down won't grow the economy and revenues fast enough to keep up with the spending train. The inflationary approach would pretty much level the middle class and poor.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:07
Zeeb Ackron>(Ackron):
EWP: I have no need to read any marginal publications. We are riding the crest of the post WW2 prosperity and leaving the under 20s with some debt. What is wrong with that?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:07
Steve Puetz @ Panda>(@ Panda):
Panda: I'm with you. Gold has had good support in the $335-340 area. The positive sign is than gold hasn't broken below this support -- even though the DJIA keeps soaring. Once the DJIA starts its crash, $340 should be a good springboard for gold to launch it's next buul move.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:05
WW @New England>(@New England):
EWP: the longevity argument does not hold water as that is why they increased the tax many times over the years in recognition of this obvious fact. SS has to be paid and instead of the IOUss why not mandate that the money not being replaced by IOUs in the new system go into buying marketable Treasury's so there would not be a sudden increase in borrowing. Of course each participant would have the power to sell the Treasury into the mkt upon retirement and collect the proceeds. Or EWP are you for the Federal Govt controlling everyone's property when it helps you.

SS and Medi are Property and that is why they are called Entitlements anyone who meets the criteria can sue in Federal ct for benefits. Just as you could sue the govt if they took your house. Thank God for the judiciary.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:03
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Zeeb: I would suggest reading some Richard Lamm, Pete Peterson, Warren Rudman, CATO Institute, etc. if you think things will be so economically sound for the younger generations ( and provide as much opportunity that you and I have probably enjoyed ) .


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:02
Steve Puetz @ More Gold>(@ More Gold):
More Gold: Thanks.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:01
Dennis Salt lake>(Salt lake):
Steve: Say something we haven't already heard. Like support for your for your $20,0000 gold prediction--your Hallmark prediction.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:59
D.A. gold.anyone?>(gold.anyone?):
All:

Now that I have learned why gold is such a lousy investment, I think I'm going to buy some. Maybe even a lot. It used to be that at Kitco when an anti-goldbug showed up he got squashed. Now they are revered for their balanced opinions. It used to be at Kitco that when the XAU outperformed gold that this was predictive of a rise in gold. Now its because the stock market it going up and this is just another shorting opportunity, because the volume is weak and some gold fund has not performed up to par. I won't go out on that limb that says gold is going up from here, but I'll wager its not going down. If the boys and girls at Kitco can no longer hoist the flag, there can't be much risk anymore.

P.S. We bought a load of May 625 calls in Silver. Hope they work as well as Palladium.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:59
QT @>(@):
EWP,,,
society should try... what is this thinking?
Puetz,,, Government's sole purpose is to protect the strong from the weak. Without it the bent twig of humanity always turns to tear those foundations of burdensome tyrany into the mulch of a new order. The United States is an example of this, is it not?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:58
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
WW: It's too late to save our financial system. Any attempt, now, to pay off government debt would be deflationary -- and start a depression. On the other hand, any further increase in debts will bankrupt the country beyond repair. It's a catch-22. The system is doomed no matter which direction we go. Escape the system, and get into gold and silver coins.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:58
panda @>(@):
For the brave only! This graphic is rated 'H' for hazardous to your finances. :- ) ) Now that we have a well defined triangle, which is supposed to break lower... Anyone have comments? Is gold forecasting a 'problem'? Could this be leading to the break out ( up ) ? Technically, we should break lower, but gold seems to be finding good support at $340. What to do, oh what to do?




Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:58
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Steve P.: yep.

Reb: Age needs to be raised aggressively and serious CPI adjustment. Will it happen. Doubt it. Republicans have some plan to raise it to 67 by 2028 or something. That is a joke. Democrats probably have no plan because it flys against their campaign rhetoric.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:55
MoreGold @Steve Puetz>(@Steve Puetz):
Steve, im with you on the outlook for Gold. This is one hell of a tough time to be a Goldbug, but I am convinced, like you, that it will pay off.
The only question to be answered is when.
Meanwhile the masses continue to pump their savings into overpriced equities, and the deception goes on. Maybee 7900 Dow tomorrow,
8500 next week. At these levels the risk reward ratio has to be deadlier than a minefield. Irrational exuberence, naw that went out at the 5500 level ( What happened to Greenspan and his warnings anyway? ) .
Steve, keep on informing those very few who still listen.........


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:55
Zweeb Ackron>(Ackron):
My standard of living is infinity better today than it was when I was an under 20. I'm living better than the last King of England. So is every one who is connected to this site. The gloom and doom and ain't it awful and the world as we know it is going to get worse is really a rite of passage here. Until it gets worse things have never been better.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:53
vronsky EWP & TED>(EWP & TED):
CRYSTALLEX INTERNATIONAL - Many have been watching the stellar price rise in KRY. Hereís WHY:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/grandich_512.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/grandich_jan.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/goldbug418.html


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:52
EWP EWP>(EWP):
WW: If you raise taxes or create new revenue grabs, you just are continuing the ponzi scheme. SS is not a pension. It is old age insurance. Medicare is subsidized health care with people living much longer than when the system was implemented. In the 30s - SS will never cost that much, In the 60s - Medicare will never cost that much. SS and Medi are 1 and 3 in govt. spending. Medi will pass defense spending soon.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:51
Steve Puetz @ EWP>(@ EWP):
EWP: Ponzi must be smiling now. He probably never imagined what it was that he started. The gov't outlaws Ponzi Schemes, the Gov't creates the grandest Ponzi Scheme ever imagined. More of the gov't attitude of Do as I say, not as I do.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:48
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Zeeb: I guess nothing if you feel it is okay to pass on a declining standard of living. I personally feel that society should try to pass on an equal or better life for their children. That won't be happening with the current trend of the old third rail. These programs were designed when people weren't supposed to live much past 65.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:48
QT @>(@):
Steve P. ,,,
Great idea, just let the poor fight your wars for you. After they've trimmed the hedge and hauled the trash, of course.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:47
REB MJ.land>(MJ.land):
WW: I sympathize with your idea that a broad based tax should be implemented to pay for Soc. Sec.

In my view, Soc. Sec. IS a broad based tax. The idea that there is a trust fund is a joke. The system is a means of inter-generational transfer payments and I doubt it will ever be anything else. To fix it would require some one to come up with the 17 trillion and I doubt that is going to happen. When the baby boom bubble starts to become eligible for benefits, I look for a muddle through solution that will be a combination of means based benefits ( which has already occured through the tax code ) , older retirement age, higher current taxes, less favorable benefit adustments for inflation, etc.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:47
WW @New England>(@New England):
EWP: 1 ) Stop the borrowing now and use the next 13 years of surpluses to invest in real investments or privatize the system and let the individuals choose where to put the money/In sum, end the IOU scam. The govt, of course, would have to borrow more in the mkt or raise taxes to cover the increased deficit of not raiding the Trust fund. I dont think those Free Mkt Capitalists on Wall St. would like such a policy. EWP Ques. are you for continuing to raid the trust fund and rob current workers of benefits they are paying for/
OR should we stop the raids and be honest and make up the difference by increased borrowing or taxes today and allow the NEXT 13 YEARS of surpluses to accumulate for those who made payment so the system will reliquify and not burden our grand children.

I think a broad based tax which is economically broad enough to not effect final demand will be necessary if they do not stop the fake IOU game. The crisis is really that the GOVT DOES NOT WANT TO PAY THE IOUs. Stop now or a broad based tax later is the only fair solution. Given the Demographics tomorrows politicians will have to figure out a way to pay the workers back for what they have paid in. I would really like to see an end to the IOUs and the Govt go out in the mkts and borrow the extra 200-300 million on 1998/99 and forward it would need without the use of the IOUs. WOULD YOU AGREE TO THIS AND CALL YOUR CONGRESSMAN DEMANDING SUCH ACTION. Do you think Wall St would like this or do you think they would want to continue the IOU scheme and fatten their bottom lines at the expense of the taxpayers.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:46
Steve Puetz @ TED>(@ TED):
TED: You do have a good sense of humor!! You need to take the prospect of a depression more severe than the 1930 seriously, though.
Maybe you're too laid-back.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:46
Bob Knight Bloomington>(Bloomington):

Steve Puetz: Had to. Woulda broken a chair over
some reporter's head otherwise. I've gotta be
careful. I'm already wanted in Puerto Rico!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:43
Steve Puetz @ WW>(@ WW):
WW: I agree with most of what you say, except: Why have any tax at all?
Whoever renders a service from any person or organization should be the person to pay. Get rid of government, except for defense. Pay for defense with either voluntary service or taxes for those who don't serve.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:42
Zeeb Ackron>(Ackron):
Whats wrong with the under '20s paying for our entitlements? We have paid for everything they have worn, eaten, driven, lived in or worked in or been educated in or with.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:42
TED @DA>(@DA):
D.A ( 21:34 ) Pathetic....ain't it!...I'm outta here....for a while! BYE..
So you left NYC too...eh..


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:38
TED @NOVICE>(@NOVICE):
NOVICE and Liz: If you think I am ignoring Kristine....you are wrong as she is out for the evening with friends.....and look at me blaberin away!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:37
Steve Puetz @ Bob Knight>(@ Bob Knight):
Hey, Bob!! What's the story about you walking down the middle of the highway, in the rain, at mid-night, in the shady part of town, after your NCAA loss


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:34
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Ted: KRY is one Peter Grandich is betting his lungs on ( I get mailings from him ) . I guess we'll see. My homerun hitter is Bema ( I hope ) . They are supposed to release updates to their Cerro Casale deposit soon ( 27+ million oz. in gold and a bunch of copper ) that they partner with Arizona Star ( which Bema owns a percentage of ) . IMHO, anyone would have to be nuts to short BGO or AZS.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:34
D.A. the.system.works.for.those.in.the.system>(the.system.works.for.those.in.the.system):
WW:

Let me get this straight. Some guy borrows a bunch of money, finds out that he can't pay it back, and you blame this on the people who lent him the money. Sue their butts off huh? On the other hand, if the financial institution did not lend them the money, why then they would probably be guilty of discrimination. Sue 'em all big and small. Ever wonder why lawyers have a bad rep?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:33
TED esargent@auracom.com>(esargent@auracom.com):
EWP: Enjoyed talkin to ya and if ya feel like it e-mail me some time..I just noticed this gets a little ADDICTIVE and I gotta get off for a while and go down and listen to the ocean or somethin....WW: YOU still didn't tell me where you live.....is it that bad?...another evasive lawyer!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:28
EWP EWP>(EWP):
WW: Where is the money you and I paid in FICA? I'll answer that. Govt. IOUs. Who will pay for that. You and I ... and especially those much younger. The financial structure is a ponzi scheme. Don't you agree?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:27
TED @EWP>(@EWP):
EWP: KRY....Bema...


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:26
EWP EWP>(EWP):
WW: Has the current retiree collected more than they contribute for programs like Medi and SS?

Do you want somebody in their 20s or younger to pay for our entitlements?

That is what the 17 trillion in unfunded liabilities are all about.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:24
TED @WW>(@WW):
WW: My brother is also a lawyer...he is currently in hiding in Bangkok Thailand...


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:21
TED @Stevepuetz>(@Stevepuetz):
Steve Puetz: I don't think a full-blown depression is in the cards..I've heard that rap for the past 13 years while the market has gone up...and up...Like I said I practice a life-style of SELF-SUFFICENTCY and I'm ready .......


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:20
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Ted: ABX is probably, IMHO, one of the better seniors. HM and PDG are probably looking for acquisitions ( along with some others like CCH, etc. ) . Who? Good question.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:19
WW @New England>(@New England):
EWP: I have expressed in previous posts ad nauseam the error in your perception. I just want people to get what they have/are paying for. They should stop borrowing from trust funds now and sock the money away. The 30 year olds are paying in big tine and should expect their money back at least. You and Ted have apparently benefited tremendously from the bull market in stocks which was and is assisted by raiding the SS and Medi Trust Funds thus keeping interest rates artificially low thereby contributing to the increase of your wealth through Govt Largesse at the expense of the SS and Medi paying young people of today. A broad based tax is the least you can do to give back some of the benefit you have derived by the Govt robbing money from todays young. Get off your love of govt benefits and for once take personal responsibility. The hypocrisy is as obvious as it is sickening. This is why the right wing is always doomed to ultimate failure.

I dont think tomorrow's youth should pay I think the beneficiaries of the robbery should pay and the robbery should stop now. A broad based tax is the ans. but really we should have a more direct tax on those who benefit from the theft like the securities industry and their fat cat clients.

I am 30 years from retirement to the Carribbean. Further, I might never retire as seeing financial institutions eat bad loans and use of the Fair Credit Act to sue them when they try to collect is just too much fun. I love counter suing the SOBs when they make even one error with one of my debtor clients. Because of this leverage, I am proud to say some of my clients have staved off Bankruptcy and actually ended up collecting from the creditors. The system works!!!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:18
Bob Knight Bloomington>(Bloomington):

Steve Puetz: A Boilermaker, eh? Heh heh.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:15
TED @EWP>(@EWP):
EWP: Yeah, 9.05% ain't bad fer these days...What I like about D.R.I.P.'S is that they are the ultimate timming device....cheaper they are the more ya buy..ect. ect...takes the emotions out of play!...XON does something lile 75-80% of their business out of country so it's a foreign play to a degree...Have always wanted to own RD and will if the market crashes...great company!...


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:13
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Ted: The coming problem for utility-type companies in an economic depression is that they must collect bills from customers who are broke. What seem like solid and sound companies now, won't look the same in an economic depression.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:10
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
WW: Good comments. The problem now is: Lend to whom?
Solvent creditors are hard to find these days.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:09
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
WDL: Great story!! Neil Armstrong is a graduate of my alma mater --
Purdue!!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:08
TED @WW>(@WW):
WW: My God...you are back fer more!...No,I don't partake of the Canadian health care system and am at the mercy of the private U.S. system...I can't believe we have somethin in common....even YOU do not like Billy-Bob....Bravo!...BC is Tony Blair's idol...what does that say about GB?...Now I will ask YOU AGAIN WW....Where do you live in New England


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:03
Arms Dealer Now/now>(Now/now):

Ted and WW: Now, now, lets be level headed.
Gun-Runner: Have I got a deal for you!!!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:03
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Ted: 9.05% ... can't beat that. Gold is a good contrarian play now ( or so say a lot of experts ) . Longer term ... energy ( oil and natural gas exploration, etc. ) is wiser ( if you looking 15-20 years ) ... and the DP and DRIPs are a great way to dollar cost average a bunch of companies.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:01
TED @EWP>(@EWP):
EWP: yeah, some out there are gettin a little CRANKY...ain't they!..I bought CDE last September and held for a few months and made a few bucks.
Bought HM at X-mas time and held that for about a month or so and made a few bucks there too...Bought ABX several months ago @ 25.5 and ain't sellin until it's at least over 30....and maybe not even then!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:57
WW @New england>(@New england):
TED: I said to each his own. What I would like to know as an American Conservative living in Canada are you partaking of their National Health Service, which all conservative Canadians I speak with seem to prefer or have you stuck with the US Private Insurance program.
I know nothing of Chretian but I assume he is good and even as a left wing Liberal I do not like Clinton so you will insight no argument there.
BC is the ultimate in political expediency. If the stk mkt ever goes down significantly his troubles will multiply.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:56
TED @EWP>(@EWP):
EWP: Sounds like we have similar investment styles...I'm approx.10% of stock portfolio in ABX...I've studied UTES fer years and like their correlation to interest rates and thus to GOLD!...AM also in long Bond @ 9.05% ( bought about five years ago ) ...No state taxes on that baby...but next time it hits 6% I'm gettin out...10+ years ago day-traded gold shares and have also used UTES as a trading vehicle...But only trade with that I can afford to lose!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:52
EWP EWP>(EWP):
WW: Where will you be retiring? FL. Let me know so I can move down there ... and hassle you to get out and get a job ... and quit expecting some younger kids to subsidized your golf, shuffleboard, and bochy ball habits.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:48
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Ted: and I'm not as cranky as some of the goldbugs because I've actually made money in mining shares this year. Made some small gains in CCH. I don't own now ... but may again. Quality company, IMHO. They are interested in doing acquisitions. I want to wait until after they pull the trigger before I'd would consider them again.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:47
TED @WW>(@WW):
WW: Well..well..well! So you decided to deal with me..eh...Not a DIME of inheritance...buddy....Why am I wasting away in Canada? I'm now wasting my retirement in Cape Breton...That's your judgement! Not mine....I love nature-oceans-seakayaking and you can't find a better place to do that than her in good old Cape Breton!...I like COLD weather or I would be in a southern clime....Re-the people here....yes, most of them are pathetic but no worse than what I experienced in Putney Vermont after all the flatlanders moved in...and finally I much prefer living in CANADA where the leader is NOT a slime-ball...Again, it's YOUR judgement I'm wasting my retirement as I LIVE life to the max!...and I ain't no LEEMING!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:46
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
I guess that was less than a resounding success. I had to convert the file from *.PCX to *.GIF. Something was lost in translation. Evidently.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:46
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Ted: yep .. I'm only about a 5-7% goldie. I have the DP and DRIPs for a couple of energy and utility companies ( coal and hydro sources ) for my spouse and children. Basically, the companies that I feel are good 15 year investments. My mining plays are have fun with the house money. My plays are high risk ( half in Bema and half in another company ) . I like a few others but I'm disciplined on the percentage that I will invest in this sector. Heh ... it's fun and risky.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:43
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Here is a chart of the XAU with patented lines and such. Not very exciting. It is reaaly a first attempt at getting charts out of some outdated DOS based real time software. I want to see how it turns out before doing some overlays and other things.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:42
MoreGold @Important warning to NETSCAPE users>(@Important warning to NETSCAPE users):
Netscape bug uncovered


Danish software firm finds flaw that
could let sites see data stored on PCs

From Correspondent Steve Young
June 12, 1997: 6:58 p.m. ET

NEW YORK ( CNNfn ) - A serious new flaw that affects all versions of Netscape Communications Corp.'s popular Navigator Internet browser software -- including the final test version of its Communicator Suite released Wednesday -- has been uncovered by a Danish software firm, CNNfn has learned.

The bug was reported by Cabocomm, a software company located about 100 miles west of Copenhagen, Denmark. The bug makes it possible for Web-site operators to read anything stored on the hard drive of a PC logged on to the Web site.

After the firm reported the bug to CNN Financial News, CNNfn and PC Magazine tested the bug by creating and storing a document on a PC's hard drive in New York. Seconds later, the Danish company read it.

As further proof, CNNfn and PC Magazine created another document which the Danish company was also able to read.

Larry Seltzer, technical director of PC Labs, was among those who helped verify the bug report. He said it would take a somewhat savvy computer user to exploit the bug.

They have to be seeking information from your system and they also have to know the file name. It's not that hard for somebody who's looking to make trouble, but they do have to be looking for it, Seltzer said.

It's serious in that it's in the [actual] browser ...whereas previous bugs generally required the user to have downloaded an additional product, Jim Wise, UNIX administrator for CNNfn, said.

CNNfn's test showed that Internet security firewalls offer no protection from the bug.

Mike Homer, vice president of marketing for Netscape, said the company takes this and all bug reports seriously. ( 83K WAV ) or ( 83K AIFF )

The Danish company says the reward of $1,000 and a T-shirt is insultingly low considering the extent to which the bug report is likely to worry Netscape users.

Cabocomm said it would accept reasonable compensation for the technical information -- or they can send a Netscape representative to Cabocomm and get it for free.

CNNfn, PC Magazine and the Danish company will not release technical details on the bug until Netscape has prepared a bug fix.

The reason CNNfn is not reporting the specifics of the bug is to avoid anyone exploiting it.

Until the bug is fixed, confidential letters, business spreadsheets -- everything on your PC -- can potentially be pilfered.

The Danish company says it won't exploit the bug, but has no idea if someone else has found the same bug and is compromising a system's integrity.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:41
Crystal Ball StockMarket Bear@Poorhouse>(StockMarket Bear@Poorhouse):
Gaze upon this monthly Dow chart in awe. Makes palladium and coffee look like pikers. Meanwhile, gold sits like a lump of lead.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:41
Crystal Ball StockMarket Bear@Poorhouse>(StockMarket Bear@Poorhouse):
Gaze upon this monthly Dow chart in awe. Makes palladium and coffee look like pikers. Meanwhile, gold sits like a lump of lead.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:30
WW @New england>(@New england):
TED: I hope you earned every penny of your inheritance/just kidding since I dont know I cant say. However, you are to be commended on your stick tooitiveness with stks, this sounds like you are not an emotional investor which I think is key and which I can point to in my investment miscues.

My Ques. is why is a smart guy like you living in freezing NE Canada where from your posts you have disdain and even repugnance for your more progressive bretheren in the area. Ever heard of Antigua/Anguilla/Barbados or Trinidad. What a waste of early retirement, but I guess to each his own.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:28
Big Bird Little Chicken eh.>(Little Chicken eh.):

Chicken Little: Have no fear, we have the best and the
brightest to keep the sky from falling.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:27
panda @explorer?>(@explorer?):
Front -- I tried, but had no success! Now I know why I use Netscape instead of Explorer! I even checked out MSFTs website to no avail!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:26
TED @EWP>(@EWP):
EWP: I'm in SHOCK!...someone here owns a non-gold stock...Ain't PNY a great little company and I love those yearly dividend raises...TRP is another good one fer dividend increases...Vis-a-vis U.S.Dollar ..the Canadian Dollar is a screamin buy!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:21
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold down .40....and Tiger Woods is NINE strokes behind the leader...


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:20
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Ted: Cash will be king. Buying opportunities. Energy related sector may be of good value. I own PNY also and some others through DRIP and Direct Purchase plans! Only 5-7% in mining shares. Shifting to money market and conservative funds for buying opportunities.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:16
TED @ewp>(@ewp):
EWP: Re-suckers rally and Dow 8,000....With all due respect, what is going to happen at the end of the suckers rally...another repeat of 1987?...Didn't sell a share then and am now in early retirement...Most of my portfolio is in D.R.I.P. and I only ended up buying more shares when the market plunged...Shares in the BASICS of life such as international oil ( XON ) electric+ gas utilities ( WEC,SIG,BGC,PNY, ECT ) and telephone companies ( SBC,FRO ) ...are they all goin out of business? Don't hold yer breath!...I got plenty of ABX TOO so I ain't no anti-goldbug...and plenty of tangible stuff...ie. real eatate...is that goin to vaporize too...I am also very SELF-SUFFICENT ( probably unlike most on this site ) so bring it on! I'm READY!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:15
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Jack: and the U.S. has the addl. problem of depending on countries like Japan and China to buy its debt. Japan is a problem now because of the stability of their economy and banking system ... and China and the MNF thing is about getting China to buy our paper ... and China may be more of a long term problem that Uncle Sam's appetite for debt will just have to deal with ( unfortunately ) .


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:09
Jack Who Pays For It?>(Who Pays For It?):

EWP ( 19:54 ) Right on; and practically every government
has large debt. It's supposed to be payed; so we are
told.
Who pays? The taxpayer pays.
Who do the governments pay? The Credit Czars.
Who controls the governments?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:05
WW @New England>(@New England):
Mr. Peutz's observations are correct/the threat is depression. In McAlvaney's Letter ( which all should read lest they be uninformed ) the author unmasks the fraudulent presentation of Econ strength by or leaders ( Political/Media and Wall St ) . Credit card debt went fron 20 billion in 1990 to 400 billion in 1995 its probably near 500 billion area now. Bankruptcies, with which I am well acquainted in my profession, are going through the roof and unfortunately I can report that MY business is really booming/unlike retail sales.I can tell you from experience that the debt game played by the banks is really hurting families. As Mcalvaney aptly points out Depressions are always caused by excessive credit expansion as in the 20s. The difference this time is that we have very smart people ie mkt saavy, like Rubin who see this coming and have been hired by the politicians to try and head it off.

COORDINATION: US releases weak econ numbers today. Now if you were one of the guys hired to maintain stability what message would you want from the weakness. Ans: Strong dollar ( Japanese miraculously buy dollars just before this announcement ) strong stks ( basically a life of its own ) weak gold ( no panic over weakness ) . The nightmare scenario is weakening US economy therefore bigger deficits and higher rates and crashing stks thus when weak numbers are released you must have a strong dollar. The nightmare scenario is what they are trying to delay and thus will be aggressive in countering the development of any adverse market psychology when the numbers present a risk ( ie weak ) of their development. They are well awarse that the credit based expansion requires intense mgmt since it is based on the need for continual borrowing for earnings growth and therefore even US tax revenues. When the borrowing crashes so will earnings begin to erode.

EVIDENCE: I have noticed many companies attempting to get business by discounting the cost of services deeply. However, the catch is that you pay money upfront. Given, the prevalence of pressure for short term earnings performance ( stk option oriented managers ) one would get the impression that they will do anything to get that earnings bounce at the expenses of future performance. This policy may indicate that things are getting tight and they have basically played out the downsize card.

Re: Stockbrokers: I have a full service broker who has assisted me with financial plans and who is honest but has had some bad years as well as good. In the bad years I always insist that he does not reduce the commission because I know it is then that he really needs the money. When he is riding high and making me money I demand a 25% discount.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:02
EWP EWP>(EWP):
If anyone is now joining the sucker rally ( IMHO ) to go over 8000, I hope you know when to exit.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:59
vronsky INGER LETTER FORECAST - JUNE 11, 1997>(INGER LETTER FORECAST - JUNE 11, 1997):
Dashing & Flamboyant CNBC Financial Celebrity shares an encyclopedia of market insights on stocks, oil and T-bonds in Inger Letter Forecast - Click RELOAD at Gold Digest:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:57
Chicken Little @reality>(@reality):
THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:55
TED @stevepuetz>(@stevepuetz):
Steve Puetz: Read who's work?...Think I'll stick with Warren Buffett...
snicker...snicker....Where the hell did you come from...I've been fully invested for the ENTIRE BULL-MARKET and have also made a few bucks on Platinum and gold shares...on the side...Sometimes the bias of this site is actually humorous!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:54
EWP EWP>(EWP):
U.S. House of Cards: 5+ trillion debt; 17+ trillion unfunded liabilities;
new accouting gimmicks to hide the true size of the federal deficit ( last year deficit was about 250 billion not 107 billion ) . High levels of corporate and personal debt. Medicare Trust fund on life support ( and eventually Uncle Sam will raise taxes ) . Soc. Sec ... and so on and so on.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:54
WDL @ a little more levity>(@ a little more levity):
When will this lunacy end?..I thought the final figures I heard were from Hong Kong or Tokyo. Tomorrow, they'll probably announce that there were ten less bankruptcies and the market will go up another 100 points. To add a little further levity ( I enjoyed tortfeasor's humor ) , I'll add my own story:

Many of us remember back in July, 1969 when Neil Armstrong landed on the moon....those memorable words: That's one small step for man and... well you know the rest. What you don't know is that many of us misheard those history-making remarks Armstrong uttered as he descended from the lunar module onto the moon's surface. It seems that
Armstrong, as a young boy, lived in an apartment complex in Ohio. Practically every night as he was getting ready to go to bed he could hear in the next apartment his neighbor, Emanuel Kind pleading with his wife for sex. Manny's wife's constant refrain was:
Manny, when somebody lands on the moon....that when we'll have sex!
Well, as Armstrong prepared for his historic making descent onto the
moon's surface, he kept thinking of his old neighbor, Emanuel Kind...
so when he set foot on the moon, he said: That one small step for man...
one giant leap for Manny Kind.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:52
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):
Crystal Ball:

Thanks! Now I am charted up. : )


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:44
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
TED: Refering to the 1987 crash, and the expectation of another crash, you asked: Is the world coming to an end this time?
In a word -- YES. That is, the financial world as we know it. Read Eldorado's work. Credit-based money is history -- probably for centuries to come.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:41
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
GUN-RUNNER: Buy gold and silver coins.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:40
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
General & Student: A big portion of the mania is social pressure. With so many people making money in stocks and losing in precious metals, those who like gold and avoid stocks are scorned. I must admit, my wife isn't too fond of my investment strategy either. Nonetheless, we must rely on logic, not emotion. We must buy value, and avoid over-value. Logic dictates that gold be purchased, and stocks and bonds be avoided.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:35
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
I haven't seen much discussion about the decline in retail sales. Retail sales have dropped for 3 months in a row. In the old days, that used to be a sign that the economy has slipped into recession. It looks like a replay of 1929, the economy peaks-out ahead of the stock market. If so, the coming stock market crash isn't too far away.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:35
Pepino di Cortino Dolly>(Dolly):

Crystal Ball: Owe Nice.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:32
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
George Cole: You are right. Stocks hold the key to the revival of gold and silver. With everyone rushing into blue-chips, nothing left for gold. It looks like the DJIA is in a blow-off. The big question is when will it terminate?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:31
Crystal Ball Free TA @ IQC>(Free TA @ IQC):
For technical analysis ( JAVA *and* non-JAVA ) on stocks, try
http://www.iqc.com Membership is free, and as far as I know, this is not for a limited time either.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:29
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
RJ: You need to read Eldorado's piece on 6-11-97 @ 23:02. Eldorado: You understand our monetary system and financial condition perfectly. You need to post more notes on these pages!!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:26
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
RJ: I disagree with your 6-11-97 note @ 21:05. You said, the trick is to buy gold and sell it after a move up. This time around, buy and hold will work better. Our financial system is collapsing. Selling gold any time before the collapse becomes a total wash-out will mean a complete loss of your capital -- no matter how much you made on the way up.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:25
Chicken Little @goldbugs>(@goldbugs):
Tomorrow will be our day! The big rally is right around the corner! My charts show gold will turn around at 11:54 Friday morning! The Dow will be at 1,000 in 37 days!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:24
Crystal Ball Nuggets@Wisdom>(Nuggets@Wisdom):
If Dolly Parton had married and divorced Tommy Smothers, then went even further back in show business and married and divorced Mr. Lucky, then married and divorced Martin Short, then married football kicker Ray Guy, we could all nod understandingly when we heard, Dolly Parton Smothers Lucky Short Guy.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:21
Jack Battle Mountain>(Battle Mountain):

Tw: ( 18:34 ) What I'm thinking is pure speculation, but
when Battle Mountain aquired Hemlo Gold, they also
re-aquired their conservative image and probable support
from Noranda.
Down here the greenies have thrown; and are attempting to
throw more monkey wrenches in their plans.
My quess -and its only that- is that they will seek to
increase their interest in Lihir Gold, the biggest newby
on the block.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:20
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort ( bonus joke ) HAHAHA...but who's lickin wounds? Dow up...ABX up.....
beautiful sunny day on the ocean....who can ask fer more...Tort:the Mailman was pathetic in the clutch last night and I am very disturbed by his performance in the biggest game of his life....fer shame Mailman..fer shame...


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:04
Byron @ Update:>(@ Update:):
Re: last post. Just realized that the Technical Charting page can be accessed directly from the DBC Home Page.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 18:52
Byron @ Hear Ye, Hear Ye:>(@ Hear Ye, Hear Ye:):
Announcement: For a Limited Time Only!!

The DBC site will now allow you to put in technical indicators for your chart. They have a selection of various indicators to choose from. I.E.- stochastics, MACD, Bollinger Bands, etc.

You need to get to the Enhanced Charting Page and look for technical indicators The URL is http://www.dbc.com


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 18:47
Paul Smith fuji@idirect.com>(fuji@idirect.com):
A.P.H.

Al, when you e-mailed me a couple of weeks ago that the S & P would hit 880 I have to admit I didn't believe it. You called it right ! Too bad I had puts instead of calls.

Tell, me... when can we expect the Dow to crash ?

Paul



Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 18:45
Paul hrhpmd@aol>(hrhpmd@aol):
Earl ( Duke of.. ) ....Thanks for info on Dec 98 400's. I am going to take some of those
puppies soon to hedge some property I am selling in late 98.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 18:44
Tortfeasor Bonus Joke>(Bonus Joke):
My feeling is that the XAU going up today proves that in a tornado even an ostrich will fly. I think if the DOW goes down XAU will go down too. Its weak positive showing does not appear to me to be particularly bullish today given the rise in the DOW. Now in an effort to make the wound licking more palatable the following.

A guy gets on an airplane and sits next to a very attractive young lady with NAN emblazoned on the front of her t-shirt.

The guy, with intent to become closer friends with the beauty, says, So Nan, how do you like flying?

The lady replies, My name isn't Nan, NAN stands for the National
Association of Nymphos.

The guy says, What does the NAN do?

She says, We have meetings to discuss the best lovers.

He asks her who the best lovers are and she replies, The best lovers are
Jews and Native-Americans.

He says, Let me introduce myself, I'm Tonto Goldstien.



Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 18:24
Tw @BATTLE MOUNTAIN GOLD/Takeover?>(@BATTLE MOUNTAIN GOLD/Takeover?):
Anyone notice BMG Battle Mountain Gold. Moving up on good volume in spite of terrible gold performance. Stk. up a qtr on 632 k. Co. has lots of cash and recd an upgrade to positive from S&P on Hemlo merger.
Could BMG be in play/all that cash/S&P upgrade/Peculiarly bullish stk action given the current gold market. Something is happening here. This is a Houston, Texas based company.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 18:23
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Kuston: yep ... most brokers are just pumping product ( sales = $$$ ) . Most do very little research of what they're peddling ... just passing something on that one of the bigwigs has passed on to them ... when it is okay to pass it to the general public. IMHO ... you are better off doing your own guesswork and due dili. ( or throwing darts ) than using a broker ( unless you're connected ) . Remember Dan D. on CNBC ... you were hearing it from him because somebody wanted you to hear those recommendations. You could lose a lot of money doing that. For example, I remember Citibank and Chemical slightly around 10 or so and Dan D. having people predicting they would go to about 2/share ( recommending short ) . Recommending shorting many bank stocks, etc. Anybody who went on that info. lost, not only, their shirt ...
but also a few arms and legs. : )


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 18:09
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
Strad Master: I don't know alot about how brokers work or run their
business. I try not to use them. Matter of fact - I don't use them.

But, I know this:
I have a close friend who is a broker for ML - she has the corner office
on the top floor of the ( big 5 city ) branch. In other words - she's important
in the ( big 5 city ) market and you have to be referred just to talk to her. She
has shown me internal memos and reports that the brokers never see or
hear about. Not all brokers or clients are equal or are treated equally.
Client books are closely guarded by each broker.

Personnally, if I had a 7 digit account I would have a professional like
D.A. manage 90% of it, and personnaly play with the rest. Their is nothing
like being in NY and being connected. IMHO


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 17:52
EWP EWP>(EWP):
LoserRUS: What is your major maladjustment?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 17:50
Losers R Us @PMmarket>(@PMmarket):
HAHAHAHAHA!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 17:47
Markus Chinese Connections>(Chinese Connections):
Did anyone hear the astounding CNN news this morning about Indonesian Mr. Chan who is reported to have been providing the Democratic party with reelection funds from Indonesia..apparently he was spying for the Chinese passing U.S. trade and commerce secrets to Chinese. The Indonesian company Mr. Chan represent were under Chinese ownership. Consider this possibility: Chinese orchestrated the Bre-X fiasco to secure them one of the richest gold reserves in the world, they pay off Freeport McMoran and others to remain silent, they own 95% of Indonesian commerce, they secure themselves a huge gold supply which the U.S. has been trying to prevent them from buying in the normal market ( Greenspan's trip to China to pursuade Chinese to buy U.S. bonds, not gold ) . A deliberate move to secure the Chinese position so as to discredit the U.S. economy, secure in their gold supply, ready to deepsix the U.S. economy by simply defaulting on their U.S. debt holdings. Ties in nicely with Asian Business News about why China orders its banks to cease putting cash into their stock market...such a move in any other market would have seen a major correction. Apparently, not a whimper in Chinese markets..why? What are the Chinese up to? The PLOT THICKENS...indeed! Keep your eye on the ball!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 17:43
Jack Nothing Real Good>(Nothing Real Good):

Richard Burke: All that I heard about the pure silver
stocks, is the talk about huge reserves which'll cost a
pretty penny to put in production.
Even Hecla ( now both PM's ) never lived up to its promise.

The only one that seems OK is Prime Resources
( gold/silver ) http://www.prime-res.com, Homestake has a
50%+ interest. It pays a dividend and a while back, a
report in Investor's Digest hinted that Homestake might
transfer its Canadian assets to Prime. It makes some
sense ( but that's no recommendation ) . Prime can pay back
with gold from Eskay, Snip, then Hemlo. if such were to
take place, Homestake would still have 50%+ stake and
still be the operation's manager.

There are other -no baloney- former silver producer's,
but the key word is former.
I think that this situation may bode well for the metal.
Question of secondary silver still lurks. Ain't no
Justiss.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 17:31
EWP EWP>(EWP):
FYI: For those interested in how much forward selling. I just received information on Campbell Resources ( CCH ) . It estimates their 1997 forward selling at 25% of production. I use to own CCH ( that is why I received latest report ) . Seems like a reputable company ( for the mining industry ) . Limited downside versus other juniors, IMHO ... I may buy back later.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 17:25
EWP EWP>(EWP):
June 20th: Bema annual meeting. They may, at that time, release independent scoping studies on Cerro Casale ( Chile ) property ( which they partner with Arizona Star ( AZS on Vancouver ) . Will it show the mother load or mother dud?

Earlier estimates have this property at:

The estimate of contained gold and copper in the Cerro
Casale deposit to 27.4 million ounces of gold and 7.6 billion pounds of copper.

This scoping study may confirm these numbers ( or update ) .

Supposedly PDG may be interested in Bema and/or Arizona Star if the numbers jive.



Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 17:16
Strad Master Clarification>(Clarification):
ONLOOKER and BOB A: I don't want us to all get bent out of shape here. My question to RJ is very specific and has to do with the philosophy and morality of trading the markets. I also posed it to him withour any rancor so, since it's my question, please permit me to keep this discussion as respectful as possible.

Let me provide a bit of background. It turns out that RJ works as a broker at the same brokerage that I maintain my bullion account. Not being in any way aware of this, I e-mailed him a question concerning bullion purchases since he evidences experience and knowlege in the field. He recognized my real name and in kindly writing back informed me that since he works as a broker at my brokerage, professional ethics forbade him to give me any advice. I understand and respect that. What stimulated all this is my posing what I thought to be a more generic question on the site, the answer to which might have been of use to many at this site. RJ's response brought to mind the question of why there is there no provision at my brokerage ( or any brokerage ) for obtaining a second opinion since his trading style is somewhat different from that of my broker. It seems to me that by combining talents and approaches, perhaps a more succesful overall approach to trading might be achieved. Now, there may be circumstances that mitigate against that. If so, I'm curious as to what they may be. I think a lot of my broker as a person and as a professional, but as I am primarily interested in the well-being of myself and my family I would like to have access to the best and most effective trading methodology possible. When cold-calling into a brokerage ( as I did initially ) one just gets whatever broker is next due to get a client. If there's no definite overall approach, and all the brokers are just in cutthroat competition with one another, then those who are lucky to reach a talented broker will do well while others who are not as lucky will get wiped out. It seems contrary to good economic sense for a large firm not to make every effort to maximize the success of EVERY client. From your comments it seems that there is an us against them mentality at work here and I'm not sure it should be like that. Anyway, I await RJ's response and hope this clears up any misintrepretation of my question. ( BTW Bob A: my handle is STRAD Master - as in Stradivarius violins. Thanks! )


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 17:01
TED @novice>(@novice):
Novice: Let's not be rational...


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 16:57
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Panda ( 16:07 ) Now yer talkin....George S. Cole: I didn't sell a share in 1987 either...and here I am...right on the ocean!...With most of portfolio in D.R.I.P. just ended up with more shares when the crash happened...Is the world goin to come to and end...this time


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 16:55
BillD davis@crusader.bac.edu>(davis@crusader.bac.edu):
Mee toooo! Are there any good silver stocks worth looking at Gold seems to be in a strong state of MANIPULATION ...does silver look any better

Thanks


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 16:53
Novice @WOW/dow>(@WOW/dow):
An anecdote: had lunch with a German-Canadian friend today, just back from Deutschland and a meeting of the family business there. North America looks quite good investment-wise to certain Europeans, at least. Helmut Kohl and his ideas of European Monetary Union are not at all popular with her contacts. After handing East Germany a very generous 1 DM for each 2 ( practically worthless ) East German marks a few years back, they are not at all thrilled about the prospect of joining several European financial basket-cases in a watery EMU. Thus, a substantial part of her DMs have been used to buy US$$ and US investments. And, There was no mention of gold....


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 16:20
George S. Cole blowoff>(blowoff):
Bullion down $2.40 today but XAU and HUI up slightly. We shall see who leads who.

Still see this market as in the final blowoff stage. Great for those who get out in time, but very painful for anybody caught without a chair when the music stops. Widespread expectations of Dow 10,000 not likely to be realized. When the market peaked at 2700 back in 1987 two months before the crash everybody thought the Dow would hit 3000 before trouble developed.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 16:12
Question @>(@):

Speaking of money supply. How has it been doing
lately?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 16:07
panda @ $.$.$>(@ $.$.$):
Let's see, if there are 250 trading days in the year and we assume a 1.5% increase in the Dow each day ( completely reasonable! ) . For every dollar you put in, you would get back $41.35 at the end of the year. I can hear you nay sayers now. Forget about the expansion of the money supply! Nobody is ever gonna sell! We'll all be rich! :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) )


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 15:46
APH ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''>(''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''):
Nailz - Still looking for the XAU to go under 97, but it maybe a slow drift down. No punch in Fsagx again, i suspect the strong Dow is keeping the Xau up today. Stopped out of my S&P puts, reversed and bought the calls, using a trailing stop. This Dow is like trading soybeans in a weather market.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 15:46
Bart Kitner (Kitco) bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com):
DOCDUKE: The File/Upload File... is from your Netscape menu. YOU choose the file on your computer to upload TO Kitco. It's fun and easy.



Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 15:46
Richard Burke Ag Stocks>(Ag Stocks):
Anyone: I am familiar with Silver Standard Resources as a silver stock play. What others are worth looking at? Also platinum stocks?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 15:38
Richard Burke xau-iffy>(xau-iffy):
Nailz: Further to my post last night, with abx showing no volume, gcq7 back under 245.50, Kaplan gold/xau differential stilll under 250, Deaner's warning for today happening, I also feel XAU will be down into the low 90s again. I have been in four gold stocks which have good leverage against the xau for the past month and came out this afternoon at close to breakeven including commissions. I'l try again later.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 15:27
Este on gold leaf>(on gold leaf):
Sorry to disappoint you guys but the gold leaf that you see in many buildings is not gold at all but anodized aluminum leaf. Most of this material comes from Europe, is quite inexpensive and looks like gold. Nobody could afford the real stuff for this particular use.
In spite of this detail, Mike Sheller's story was beautifully written and I also enjoyed reading it.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 15:25
Bob A to Strand Master>(to Strand Master):
My overall opinion of brokers of any kind is that they are salesman first , therefore I say let the buyer beware.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 15:10
Guzman have a nice trip, see you next fall>(have a nice trip, see you next fall):

Tort: Ixnay on the allfay word. : )


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 15:03
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com):
Watching the gold market today makes me want to break out in nursery verse reciting Jack and Jill. The trouble is that neither gold ( Jack ) nor silver ( Jill ) wants to go up the hill but they seem to have both fallen down and broken their crowns without the necessity. Now then, how about Humpty Dumpty--he too had a great fall. Where are those king's horses and men that we need to put this market together again. All I can say is bah bah yellow sheep.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:59
Chicken Little @comex>(@comex):
Comex gold down 2.20;silver down 3.5 cents;platinum down 9.80; and palladium down 1.50 DOW up 119!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:54
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Nailz: I vote with you on the XAU. Looking at it seriously, a few minutes ago, it certainly looks like it is setting up to retest the low 90s again. ........ Aaaah, if this were easy, little girls would be doing it.... who knows they may be doing now and much better. ... ( :- ) )


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:52
Chicken Little @reality>(@reality):
Recent quote from Sir.John Templeton I have never been smart enough to predict the future course of markets!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:46
student still learning>(still learning):
Panda: Thanks for the info. I appreciate the warning and especially the humor. I feel no further need for self-induced pain. With what the stock market and the gold market are doing to me, I need no further self-induced pain- at least for a little while, anyway.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:44
nailz GEORGE S. COLE COMMENTS>(GEORGE S. COLE COMMENTS):
GEORGE.....We are basically singing off the same page of music. I am expecting a drop in gold a little lower than you are...That drop carring the XAU down to the mid or low 90s.....APH... you there....What do you think


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:44
Chicken Little @gunrunner>(@gunrunner):
GUNRUNNER: Buy Inco! Stock symbol=N


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:42
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Vieserre: Dec 98 400 calls under $300 ...Aaaargh. In this climate, the bids *cannot* be too ridiculous. Take your first thought and reduce it by at least 50 bucks. ..... But imagine, someone is willing to allow you to watch the price of gold for a period of almost 18 months for less than $3.00 an oz. ...... They are convinced that they will never have to perform. Either by normal market action or default.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:41
GFD Amazed>(Amazed):
The posts on this site over the last two weeks have been excellent. This place can be amazing.

George S. Cole: I dunno about the Dow fizzling anytime soon. The 5 minute chart of this steamroller does not look like it's going to stop any time soon. It could hit 8200 by July but I suspect we may see 10,000 by Sept unless this chart starts getting sicker soon.

http://fast.quote.com/fq/geocities/chart?symbols=$INDU&time_period=5-minute%20Bars&bars=420&newstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key=


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:40
Chicken Little @wallstreet>(@wallstreet):
The sky is falling The sky is falling!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:38
GUNRUNNER gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net):

RJ, All

I'm interested in obtaining metal. What, in YOUR PROFESSIONAL opinion, is the path of least resistance and/or preferred method. All options & opinions welcome from other sources as well. Please respond to the e-mail address posted here, if possible....


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:36
TED @backfromocean>(@backfromocean):
Nailz: Small world...eh...I lived there 1968-1969....DOW only up 115! What gives....XAU down .77 ...what gives...


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:32
Onlooker @fire...>(@fire...):
StradMaster ... If I couldn't be sure that my broker was working for me ( and by broker I mean everyone in the office ) I'd fire the SOB. What, now if there's breaking news, you shouldn't hear because there may be a conflict of interest? Conflict to money in the bank they mean...Your Money, Their Bank !!! Get rid of the bums if they won't help!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:24
Crystal BAll Upward Implosion@Wall&Broad>(Upward Implosion@Wall&Broad):
e: Stock Market- To the moon, Alice !!!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:23
Strad Master Huh?>(Huh?):
BOB A: Thanks for the comment. Please forgive me though, but I don't see how it relates to the question.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:20
panda @>(@):
Whhhooppps! That last one was for Front.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:19
panda @? >(@? ):
I'll find out later tonight... I have both, explorer came with NT 4.0, but I don't use it.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:17
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

BART & PANDA:

The upload file is available in NETSCAPE only.... What do the unwashed with MS EXPLORER do?

TTFN


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:16
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

BART & PANDA:

The upload file is available in NETSCAPE only.... What do the unwashed with MS EXPLORER do?

TTFN


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 13:56
General to ARK>(to ARK):
I heard that, Brah! I got the bug too; caught it in 1980 and
haven't shaken it since. I lost a wife ( at least partly because of )
and much money due to my obsession with the yellow and white stuffs.
I don't know if I can take it much longer. My philosophy now, which
I admit will be hard to stick to, is to accumulate cash positions
and just let my current metals/stock holdings ride for the long haul.
Just wait, I'll get a metals newsletter tonight touting the next
real Bre-X. What's a fool to do?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 13:54
Bob A to Strand Master>(to Strand Master):
Let the buyer beware. You pays your money you takes your chances.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 13:18
Fundy Investor's Digest>(Investor's Digest):
Jack: Investor's Digest tipped me off to the probable rise in Canadian banks in the 1990-91 period ( did not think to memorize the specific issue ) . All of the major banks have done very well with some in the teens at that time now hitting their head on $60.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 13:17
George S. Cole Projections>(Projections):
NAILZ: I will not be shorting the XAU here, although it probably will go lower. Risk/reward ratio VERY unattractive unless you believe bullion is headed for another steep plunge. Better shorting opportunities elsewhere.

With the Dow Industrials continuing to advance relentlessly with hardly a respite and the smaller stocks stalling out, the market looks like it will peak earlier than my original late summer target date. The first half of July seems the best bet at this time. Gold should start doing much better about then. The current washout still has further to go though. Look for a downside breakout below $340 that may carry as low as $335, and then a big reversal up.



Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 12:53
nailz SHORT XAU >(SHORT XAU ):
ALL....Anybody else looking to short the XAU here


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 12:49
Strad Master A question>(A question):
RJ: One further point. ( Please believe me when I say I'm not arguing with you on this I just am throwing this out as a question of interest that has occureed to me as result of our recent dialogue. ) My wife is a doctor. It is common if not expected that when a diagnosis is made that the patient gets a second opinion - if not a third and fourth. In fact, my wife insists upon it. In this case, where thousands if not hundreds of thousands of dollars are involved, why is it that if I, the client ( patient ) seek a second opinion it is considered a breech of ethics? Why doesn't our brokerage make that sort of thing available to it's clients? After all, isn't it the goal of the company to make as much money for it's clients as possible and thereby facilitate long-term relationships? Perhaps others might care to respond, too?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 12:45
nailz HEY TED !!!!>(HEY TED !!!!):
TED.... Atlanta is about 4 hours away from me.....Interesting you lived out on the Buford Highway. I used to live out there, too. My father worked on the dam at Buford and we lived in a little community called Sugar Hill...That was about 1955....I have friends and business occasionally in Atlanta so I go there several times a year. Next week in fact....


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 12:16
Vieserre home>(home):
EARL: That option can be had for under $300


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 12:09
panda @>(@):
DocDuke -- Once you are in the directory, click on File ( your browser ) , then click on Upload file. A directory box will appear. Then select the file that you wish to upload. Click on Open, or double click on the file, and it's on its merry way.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:46
Strad Master Strad1@idt.net>(Strad1@idt.net):
RJ: I assumed by posting on a public forum where we are both anonymous and ALL could benefit from your answer, any conflict of interest problems would be mitigated. Had I not e-mailed you and had you not figured out that you work at my brokerage, no such problem would exist. Whatever you write is still your ( experienced ) opinion and so subject to my own flawed scrutiny. Nevertheless, I understand and will desist from any further questions and will try to glean what I can from your postings.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:37
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore):
Anyone: I'm looking for a goldbug vaccine. The bug casued
me to sell G @ 44 two years ago. Also, I sold CLX @ 67.
I also fell under the spell of Alan Abelson. Now I'm loaded
up to the gills in gold mutual funds and stocks. Only a
severe case of goose bumps prevented me from jumping on
Bre-X at around 200.

I wanted to buy the blue chips last month but I couldn't rid
myself of the bug. It is worse than a tick. Chiggers I don't
mind. I lost thousands on HM alone but still I buy. I
have my last will and testament instructions not to sell my
gold stocks untill spot gold hits 500 as I may not live
long enough to see it.

Faith, the evidence of things not seen...


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:36
TED @NOVICE>(@NOVICE):
Novice: Got your missile...thanks!...Will be back in yer face after the ocean adventure...No blackflies out there....Howdy Tort: Did I get the right broker...Irrational exuberance LIVES....


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:23
DocDuke Albuquirky>(Albuquirky):
Bart: I tried your ftp URL. With Netscape 3.0, here is what I got:
Current directory is /pub/discussion
Up to higher level directory

There was no file to be found for uploading.
You may need to set the file permissions for world read access.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:23
TED @front>(@front):
Front: I had a brutal day driving to the bank and back...must have seen at least ten other cars on the drive and my nerves are shot!...Keep tellin meself...slow down...slow down...and smell the roses...Time for a little ocean kayaking and loon watchin...Hope yer day has been a little less HECTIC...on the river...


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:16
TED @panda>(@panda):
Hi Panda!...Ain't Mt.Washington pretty!..Re- ( 8:43 ) It's nice to see someone following the news and not just wishful thinkin...DOW up 67...Long Bond up 30 ticks with yield @ 6.76%...Comex Gold down 1.20, Platinum down 9.80, and Palladium down 8.50...XAU down 1.03....Dow now up 73....


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:12
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Another possible scenario for gold: Movement recently in the August is from 341.60 to 347.60 for a six dollar move. 66% retracement, as Dr Doom has pointed out is golds typical retracement, is equal to 4 dollars for a low of 343.60. Todays low ( at least so far ) .


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:12
asianmgt asianmgt.space.net.au>(asianmgt.space.net.au):

Nick and Yvon

Thanks for answering my call. I truly thought that I was talking and nobody could hear. The information is exactly what I needed and the web site is now a favourite to be fully explored Thanks again.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:04
TED @nailz>(@nailz):
Nailz: Do you live in Atlanta?...I used to live on Buford Hwy. in N.E. Atlanta....Scaterie looks beautiful today...


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:02
panda @mountain.view>(@mountain.view):
For days like these, I offer this live view from the summit of Mt. Washington, N.H. Try it!

http://www.mountwashington.org/mtw_camera.htm


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:01
nailz LMAO at PANDA>(LMAO at PANDA):
PANDA.....I needed the chuckle I got from your description of the HUI...That part could, however also describe several contracts and indicies....


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:01
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
All: For those with an interest in options. The Dec 98 400 calls continue to be a bargain for those who wish to pursue them. I put in a bid at $370 earlier this week and was filled this morning. With gold continuing to look soft, a bid of $300 would look like a good possibility.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 10:57
panda @follow.up>(@follow.up):
student -- You may need this to see the option blurb...

http://www.adobe.com/prodindex/acrobat/readstep.html

Download a free copy of Adobe Acrobat....


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 10:55
vronsky THE COURT BARD OF KITCO>(THE COURT BARD OF KITCO):
Mike Sheller: the cradle will fall, and down will come market, cradle and all. Sheer poetry. That was a magnificent piece.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 10:51
nailz GOOD STUFF THE LAST FEW DAYS>(GOOD STUFF THE LAST FEW DAYS):
There has been a lot of good food for thought on here the last few days. Just because I haven't been posting doesn't mean I haven't been watching. MIKE SHELLER...Good story. Have you ever been to Atlanta The entire exterior of the dome of the capital building is covered with leaf gold. Is it ever bright in the sunshine. RJ.... I have printed several of your posts over the past couple of days to really study at a later time. Some of your rationale is very clearly evidenced in the news every day. I appreciate your posts and will respond to parts of them some day. TED....I still hear the call from Scaterie and Oak.....


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 10:51
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
AAA -- There is a lot in what you say. Even though the price of gold has dropped, there has been no decrease in demand. In fact, given numbers posted by various organizations, just the opposite! Just given the greater demand than new supplies being mined eventually puts it into crucial shortages. That, in and of itself, is just a matter of time. Who knows at this time how much the CBs have already loaned out? Maybe they are at or close to the point where no more is available. Are the governments actually going to continue selling gold? Maybe and maybe not. There does seem to be a few questions with fewer ready answers. Also, there are many other possible scenarios that can cause it to skyrocket. Don't need all that paper coming home to roost for that to happen.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 10:50
panda @>(@):
student -- The HUI index is an instrument for the inducement of great amounts of pain in ones self. Particularly with regards to ones personal finances. That being said, the HUI is the Amex Gold bugs index. It is comprised of unhedged gold producers. Read more about it at http://www.amex.com/options/intro.htm#s_index But don't say I didn't warn you! :- ) )


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 10:38
student still learning>(still learning):
Can someone enlighten me? What is the HUI index? What does it measure?
Where is it traded?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 10:23
AAA ##>(##):
RJ:
I have read some of your thoughts ( and activities ) in the metals
markets. Very clear and well thought out writing. Anyone that has used your approach to viewing and investing in this area has been right for some number of years! But do the buyers of gold use this approach?
I have to also look at this story from a different slant.
Every last ounce of gold that was ever mined was purchased,
either as jewelry or some form of bullion.
It seems that the CBs picked up most of what they have prior to 1970.
Even back then that amounted to only about 1/3 of all gold. Individuals
worldwide, owned in one form or another all of the rest. It also seems
that, net/net the CBs have stayed a little less than even over the last 26 years. So, did not individuals buy all of the gold mined over this period?
Yes they did pay many different prices for it but, they bought it all! And they still have it! Granted it does move from one hand to another as
the price changes but nowhere can I find that they changed the stuff back
to ore and sold it to the good earth Also, and for reasons Iím not sure of, they are still buying all that can be produced and then some! Think about it, the dam stuff pays no interest, has been the worst investment you can think of, has no future as money in this society and they still canít get enough
We all think of $300.00 an oz. as something special but when it crossed
$200.00 the last time, everyone knew it would be back to $100 very soon!
Yet over the next 17+/- years the world purchased every ounce at $100 +
higher? Seems whenever someone wants to sell the real thing because
itís going to $200 there is always a ready buyer. Could it be that the small gold buyers and holders of the world ( unlike us investors ) donít look at it as an investment? Doesnít the last 26 years of gold buying history make this more like ďthe truthĒ? When you think about it most small traders sell the futures ( paper ) and still keep a few ounces in the vault while the big boys move nothing but paper gold ( all kinds, you name it they sell it ) and never hold metal.
As a person walks thru his house does he not look at all of his possessions as wealth? The TV, pictures, carpet, car, etc. are not looked at as an investment but what you own. Perhaps the last few decades have shown that the worldwide perception of gold has changed. It is now more viewed as ďpart of something you ownĒ , as in ďwealthĒ and not ďmoneyĒ.
Could it be that today investors are trying to ďmake something out of gold that it is notĒ and ďgold buyers are making something out of it that it isĒ!!
Could it also be that the buyers, out of no intention of there own, may break the big gold traders? I guess time will soon tell as it always does.

regards



Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 09:50
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn):
Morning Ted, fellow suffers all. I enjoyed Mike Sheller's parable this morning and I certainly can relate. Given my recent experiences in the market I post the following:

Two commodity brokers were driving down a country road at high speed and passed a pickup truck with an old couple inside. Look at those fools, pa! Must be a couple of commodity brokers and they will surely meet their maker soon, I tell you.

Well, sure enough, a little while later the couple comes across a bad accident involving the two happless brokers.

Well maw, we got to do what any good folk would do and give em a decent burial. So the couple dug a hole and buried the brokers. Just as they were putting their tools away, a cop drives up.

You folks see this accident?

No sir, but we knew them dang fools were going to have it when they passed us doing a hunert miles an hour. Well, we finally come across the accident and gave them commodity brokers a decent burial

Are you were sure that they were dead

Well, they said they weren't, but you know how those commodity brokers exaggerate and lie!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 08:43
panda @>(@):
With more data like this, we will hit 6.6% on the long bond. Besides, the 'new' currency is stox, not cash or gold..... :- ) )

08:37 US RETAIL SALES FOR MAY DOWN 0.1%; DURABLE GOODS SALES -0.4%.
08:35 US NEW JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 1,000 AT 339,000 IN LATEST WEEK.
08:32 MAY RETAIL SALES -0.1%; EX-AUTOS -0.1%.
08:31 U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 1,000 TO 339,000 WEEK ENDING JUNE 7.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 08:19
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Mike Sheller That was a great anecdote! Sometimes the best answers are not in the charts, stars, etc but right in front of our noses! If your head had been down in total despair you might have missed those floatingindicators! Your posts are an inspiration, keep looking up!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 08:06
Mike Sheller Anecdotal dotings>(Anecdotal dotings):
RJ, ALL: I know I had fun with the concept of anecdotal platitudes about gold the other day, but I have a deep reverence for anecdotal evidence in the markets. Let me tell a true story. In mid '89 I got bullish on gold and silver, and built a leveraged bullion position for myself that started to go sour as the metals turned down. I won't go into the details of my folly, but suffice it to say that by '91,'92 I was getting my you-know-what kicked. I finally had to cry uncle and sell out. It was the worst shellacking I had ever taken in the markets. I had been right in the mid '70's when I loaded up for a long-term play on silver bullion, but now I was in the pits. I was walking out of my office building on Third Avenue in Manhattan one winter afternoon after my crushing defeat, and the lobby was bustling with construction scaffolds and workers. They had installed a new magnificent marble floor and a triple-domed ceiling. A glint of something somehow familiar caught my eye as it floated through the echoing space. Then another. Somehow, without even having to think, I knew it was gold. I looked up. They were gold-leafing the ENTIRE ceiling! I stood there, transfixed, as people rushed by me in and out. It was snowing gold flakes indoors, and as the building doors opened and closed the flakes were blowing out into the street. Slushy boots were grinding those noble flakes into the grimy wet New York City streets. Nobody but me seemed to know or care. I thought My God, they are painting the ceiling with it! No greater sacrilege could I imagine. And then it hit me! This was the bottom of the gold market! It was time to plan a comeback campaign. I worked myself slowly into position for the '93 rally, and thanks to a fortuitous interpretation of Sunshine Mining's horoscope, I recaptured some of my lost confidence and funds in that advance. Sometimes the good clues are not in the statistics, and spreadsheets, and price charts. Or even the horoscopes. Sometimes it's a no-brainer like folks painting the damn ceiling with gold that wakes you up. Watch the balcony at the NYSE! Carefully. When the bough breaks, the cradle will fall, and down will come market, cradle and all.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 08:04
panda @>(@):
TED -- Fair warning! I'm going to buy some of dem stox, ya know, dem go-go kind. Dat'll fix da markets! Look what I done ta gold! ;- ) )


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:56
TED @irrationalexuberance>(@irrationalexuberance):
George S. Cole: People have been talking and talking about irrational exuberance in the financial markets for years and years...Is my large stake in XON at risk? Are they goin to go under...Better hurry up and cash that dividend check!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:47
TED @mainlander>(@mainlander):
MGraves: Haven't looked at the garden yet to see if frost struck...Kill dem cut worms!...Panda: Sunny and 70 degrees ( F ) is today's forcast and throw in a gentle sea breeze and ya got nirvana...Gotta go to the big city and deposit some dividend checks and you can't beat the U.S/Canadian exchange rate...The Canadian Dollar vis-a vis the U.S.Buck is a BUY!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:39
George s. Cole Financial Crisis?>(Financial Crisis?):
I received the following E-mail today from Larry Parks

ject:
The BIS is worried about system risk too
Date:
Thu, 12 Jun 1997 01:38:40 -0400
From:
LPARKS@FAME.ORG
To:
lparks@FAME.ORG



Bank of International Settlements: Liberalised markets 'threaten
stability of payment systems'
TUESDAY JUNE 10 1997

By Wolfgang MŁnchau in Basle

The trend for liberalised financial markets is becoming a serious threat
to the stability of global payment systems, the Bank for International
Settlements warned yesterday.

The BIS, the umbrella organisation of the world's central banks, said in
its 1996 annual report, published yesterday, that familiar shortcomings
observed in liberalised banking markets caused greater concern than the
spread of derivative instruments.

While we have not yet experienced the economic losses that might be
associated with a major failure in payment systems, which now routinely
process several trillion dollars' worth of payments a day, a few close
calls in recent decades were wake-up calls as well, it said. Violent
asset price swings, generated by excessive credit expansion, often, but
not always, accompanied by generalised inflationary pressures and
capital inflows, have been a major source of recent turbulence.

Weak governance of financial institutions, both internal and external,
has also been a common problem.

The BIS was particularly concerned about the ability of the financial
sector to respond to a possible downturn in asset prices.

The Japanese Big Bang in 1996, the erosion of US restrictions separating
commercial and investment banking and preparations by European
financial institutions for European monetary union all imply that
competitive pressures will intensify further and that financial
restructuring is far from over.

The bank suggested that even a small tightening of US monetary policy
could have a severe effect on financial markets.

It said the greatest risks to the world economy were related to
irrational exuberance in financial markets, structural reform in
European labour markets and possible market turbulence before economic
and monetary union.

The cautious tone was reflected in the annual meeting yesterday,
attended
by about 100 central bank governors.

The BIS acknowledged that the prospect for medium-term economic growth
in the world economy remained favourable, an assessment that is also
shared by other international institutions, notably the International
Monetary Fund.

But the BIS's overall outlook is markedly more cautious: Just as it
would be premature to declare inflation dead, it would also be unwise to
assume that sound fundamentals guarantee good performance in the near
term.

Perhaps the most pressing concern is that inflationary pressure in the
US
may soon prove more difficult to tame than expected and the expansion
may end abruptly.

Even a soft landing which demanded a series of tightening measures
might have significant implications for equity prices and other more
risky investments, the BIS said in its report.

Mr Andrew Crockett, general manager of the BIS, said: The fact that
asset prices are on the increase, when inflation is low, is something to
reflect on.

Bank for International Settlements


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:37
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
RJ Many thanks for your well reasoned post of 03:12 and your CPI 04:35. You are what I felt we were missing, a good view from another perspective. I agree that it is the missing masses that have sapped the strength of the gold market by their absence along with CB sales. Until gold regains some of its charm with the common investor it will languish. Of course this can all change very quickly with a crisis of any substance. In any case, I find your unbiased market sense refreshing, even sobering, and hope you will be a long time poster here at kitco. I also think you are real smart since I moved most of my PM stocks into silver yesterday ( !: ) )


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:33
Speed @yawn>(@yawn):
It will be interesting to note whether the Chinese step in below 340 again, assuming we drop below 340.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:28
Mike Sheller more catsup>(more catsup):
RT: Re XAU chart - optimistically, next major resistance on upside is 130-135 within 1 1/2 - 2 months. Beyond that, we've got something going. If it turns down from there, we get new lows into the winter for the final bottom. FUNDY: Wed:13:44 Awaiting the Event. This IS the event. You said prior to 1935 gold was worth 20.67 for 100 years. THAT is the point. Since '35 every nation on earth has been off specie convertible currency. This is the first Kondratieff Wave in history where no national treasury or currency has any tie to gold. Inflation is endemic and chronic. It can only be so when there is no way to check unrestrained currency and credit creation.That is why I say that in 1934 gold began a 150 year bull market that will not crest until the entire monetary structure of the past century is washed away and replaced. The first of 5 waves was from '34 to '80. The wave 2 correction has been unfolding since then. Wave 3 will begin in '98. But this is a long, drawn-out affair, so you can continue to make plans for the weekend. The ups & downs will be fun though.



Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:24
George S. Cole gold outlook>(gold outlook):
RJ: Agree with you that gold's technical action is terrible and that new lows are likely very soon. But I still believe this is the final washout in a brutal bear market that will reverse in a major way when stocks top out for good and fears about the health of the financial system escalate.

If the stock market drops a few thousand points and gold still cannot mount a powerful and sustained rally, then I for one will concede that perhaps the yellow stuff is dead for the foreseeable future. I would place the odds of such a scenario at about one in ten.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:16
Mike Sheller catchup ketchup>(catchup ketchup):
CHEROKEE: Your 23:58 should be the frontispiece for The collected Works of Kitco. Happy stalking, warrior.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:13
Mike Sheller catchup ketchup>(catchup ketchup):
RJ: A move to 335 ( or thereabouts ) in gold would put the price on the support line one could draw connecting the '85 and '93 bottoms. A case could be made that we have already done that at 340 ish, and that time/space aberration on the long-term chart has compensated. In any event, I do agree that equities have stolen the hearts of the masses. My credo at this juncture is I'm in it for the long term - if it drops I'll buy some more. Physical gold that is. I do think this is probably the contrarian year. Glad you enjoyed the laffs.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:07
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
Mornin Ted : The seagull dropped a tomato on ya!!! Too nice a day for this old puter , see ya later !!!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 06:58
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- Perhaps we'll see that 338 number Friday. Regarding that very long posting, I'd simply like to say that when a gold trader basically asks what good is gold, it kind of makes me wonder about the traders' veracity should 'things' in paper of various kinds get 'interesting'. I would really hate to see someone be on the wrong side of 'that' trade! As a percentage move, silver will certainly out-perform anything gold can do! That was a great posting! Thanks!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 06:49
panda @heatwave>(@heatwave):
Hi TED -- A most interesting board at the EBN site. Every commodity is up EXCEPT gold and silver! What's wrong with this picture? BTW, why doesn't anyone want to play on the Globex today/last night?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 06:47
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
How many have missed the entire bull-market in non PM stocks by thinkin doom+gloom...Last night the Hang Seng was down 497 ( 3.45% ) and it looks like the bubble is bursting in that IMPORTANT market...Mornin MGraves!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 06:39
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold down 2.10 and Silver down 3 cents....but it is a beautiful sunny day on the ocean....Front: Tomorrow is TGIF.....Mooney: Get to work! Hi Tort...and Panda!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 06:35
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust):
RJ: With EBN showing gold off 2.10 are you about to take some profits? Enjoyed your June 12 03:12 post. Appreciate your thinking, even tho I do not always agree.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 04:57
RJ GOLD DOWN 1.50 IN HONG KONG>(GOLD DOWN 1.50 IN HONG KONG):
Maybe $340 by friday. I'm still looking for $336 - $338


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 04:49
RJ Have yoy read my 03:02?>(Have yoy read my 03:02?):
STRAD - I can make no recommendations for you. As you already know, there is a conflict of interest between us. Your broker is a colleague of mine. Ethics forbid. My postings should describe my opinion. I'm sorry, buy we had this communication B4. General philosophy maybe. No Strategy. You sound like a gentleman, good luck.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 04:35
RJ Us Government CPI for the last 20 years. Complete with Gold Statistics>(Us Government CPI for the last 20 years. Complete with Gold Statistics):


.............CHANGE..$1.00.........LOW...HIGH...AVRG

1977........6.8%.....$1.07............127....168.....148
1978........9.0%.....$1.16............167....245.....206
1979........13.1%...$1.32............463....825.....644
1981........8.9%.....$1.61............389....597.....493
1982........3.9%.....$1.68............298....486.....392
1983........3.8%.....$1.74............373....510.....442
1984........4.0%.....$1.81............307....405.....356
1985........3.8%.....$1.88............282....349.....316
1986........1.1%.....$1.90............327....443.....385
1987........4.4%.....$1.98............389....502.....446
1988........4.4%.....$2.07............392....487.....440
1989........4.7%.....$2.17............356....419.....388
1990........6.1%.....$2.30............346....425.....386
1991........3.1%.....$2.37............341....403.....372
1992........2.9%.....$2.44............328....362.....345
1993........2.7%.....$2.51............325....414.....370
1994........2.7%.....$2.57............372....401.....387
1995 .......2.7%.....$2.64............371....398.....385
1996........2.7%.....$2.72............368....417.....393


AVRG........5.1%.....$0.36............327....439.....383

...........................................GOLD AVERAGES


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 04:22
Strad Master Strad1@idt.net>(Strad1@idt.net):
RJ: About this time of night the site is pretty much left to us late-night West-coasters. With the markets opening at 5:30 AM our time, when do you ever sleep? Anyway, I for one, have geatly enjoyed and benefitted from your postings and am delighted that you're such an active part of the site. ( Glad you resolved the tiff with Front. I e-mail him frequently and he's one of the nicest guys you could ever hope to meet! ) My question to you is this: What specific signs would you look for to confirm a gold price breakdown where a person in my position might unhedge a bit to the short side? I actually have had genarally better success with shorting but as my equity has gotten somewhat stretched tight ( relieved a bit now by PA and PL ) , unhedging the gold becomes a tricky call. I personally have no particular attachment to gold, except for the little bit I keep in the safe, and so would far sooner make a profit on the larger amount I have in storage and then turn that over into silver. I really appreciate any advice you might have.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 03:35
RJ Other curencies>(Other curencies):
I have done no hstorical studies on forien curency affect on gold. OI have, however, A yen / platinum chart that is almost earie. As goes the Yen, so goes platinum. Will someone explain how I might post these charts


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 03:12
RJ Gol for the rest of 1997>(Gol for the rest of 1997):
Auric - ( 01:30 ) - Ah... But you have called my bluff. No way would I take that wager, charity notwithstanding. How about my goal of $335 half a dozen times before $400 onceí? I do believe all the metals are due for a substantial move in the next two years. Gold may go for the ride, but silver and the PGMs will lead the way. I am basically bearish on gold in the next few months, to the tune of 1.8 million short @ $348 & 350. I Did 5000 oz from $348 to $338.5 a couple months ago. Wished I had taken $339.5 last week, but my mind was on the PGMs and it happened so quick. There hasnít been enough of a rally to re-short, so I guess Iím happy I stayed in. I think it was Eldorado who thought I might be trying to convince members of the group to short. I am making no trade recommendations. I am only describing my views. Besides, if we all ganged up, sold the houses and the kids, and put every penny we had into short gold, we wouldnít make a ripple in the market. Thatís why the PGMs are so fun, the market is thin enough to move. Even silver can be bounced around for a few tens of millions, Not gold, the market is too massive. Only the CBs have the power to move the market significantly. Correction, 40 or 50 million American citizens with a like amount of Asian and European nationals could push gold through the roof.


It is precisely these great unwashed masses that are missing from this market. The equities have stolen their hearts and the romance has a ways to go yet. I, with the rest, called for a true correction in the equities when the Dow was 5000, and then 6000. A 10% drop from 7000 and strong recovery has made me a believer. Please donít take that statement to mean that I will buy into it. These lofty heights make my nose bleed. Hell, I felt more comfortable buying palladium at $204 than I would buying the Dow, NASDAQ, or S & P, at these levels. But, although self contradictory, I too believe the Dow will go to 8K, perhaps even 10K in the next 18 months. We are in the era of irrational exuberance and the sodomites will not come up for air.

The mutual fund market is more than 3 trillion strong, 2 of which came into the market since 1990. How many funds are there now? 7000, 8000? Iíve given up trying to keep track. The funds managers are so flush with cash, and more in pouring in every month. I viewed the 4 - 5 billion per week rise in money markets a year or so ago as a sign that people were getting nervous, converting to cash. Dividend ratios had dipped below 3%, normally a strong signal of a turnaround. What happened next? The Dow broke through 6K. Was that only last October? Itís seems an eternity.

I now wonder if there is a great sell off, where will the cash go? Historically some has always gone to the metals and particularly gold, but gold has lost its allure for the 90s American investor. These people fancy themselves savvy investors for making 30% last year. Believe me, I take calls from these people. They are congratulating themselves on the astute analysis when a blind lemur with dirt on his nose could have pointed out 30% on any financial page. Just invest in the smudges. The refrain of Iím in it for the long term, if it drops Iíll just buy more, can be heard in a great chorus across this land. Will it continue? I think so. Now, we are seeing increased interest in US equities, primarily from Europe, and Hong Kong. The reasons for this have already been addressed by others here, so I will defer.

The Question begs to be asked Where will this money go? Where can it go? There is simply to much $ and not enough investment vehicles. I never thought I would write anything like this. Were I to read these words 5 years ago I would have given a derisive snort and sent the writer away to wipe the hope off those rose colored glasses. Have we reached the day when 70 to 80 times prices to earning is considered normal, healthy? Is this irrational exuberance, or have we moved to a new era? I simply donít know, we are in uncharted seas. All this weighs heavily on gold, and saps its funding. The longer this exuberance lasts, the more distant the primal tug of gold on the spirits of those that touted its virtues only a decade ago

. We now must speak of the psychology of gold. What is the feeling? Outside of this particular peer group, I mean. I receive calls every day from people who want to buy gold. The first question I ask is always, why? This is not meant to be a challenge, I truly want to know the belief system that compels their call. Apart from the occasional NRA, Republic of Texas ( yes I have sold to even them ) , apocalyptic doomsayers, I hear almost no clear cut or deeply held belief in gold. Oh, Iíve always wanted some, and I thought I might find out about it. Or, well, my dad always believed in gold, and I have some extra cash, so I thought I would buy some. Or, I thought Iíd get some gold in case the stock market drops. Are you worried about a drop, I ask. no, but it canít hurt to have some. I will sell gold for delivery to these and others.

Often I run into investers who wants to make profits in gold. I usually try to point them towards silver or platinum for profits as they almost invariably out perform gold in a rising market. The potential from profits is greater. As I have stated earlier, unless I am selling for delivery - which, if a person owns no gold, I always encourage - I use gold primarily as a short vehicle. In a falling market itís protection is great, and in a rising market, the gold short looses less than the others gain. Gold is my platinum and silver condom. It protects me, It cradles me, it sings in my ear, and strokes my hair. Gold will hear my deepest thoughts and never, ever hold it against me when I sell it short. The way things have been going lately, its nice to get out sometimes.

Make no mistake I will leverage gold long, but only in a moving market. Why wait in gold when there is movement in silver? Besides a dark and ugly cloud seems to be over gold, and until that lifts, I will not fight it, I will use it.

Last year Central Banks sold more than 1700 metric tons of gold. Some was bank to bank but most was on the open market. Expectations of at least 1000 MTs in 1997 are very real. The longer these sales are held off, the more the market dreads the day they are sure will come. Now we are hearing rumblings about revaluation of gold stores coming from the Germans and Swiss. If the big four in Europe - Germany - France - Switzerland - Great Britain - sell any gold at all, we will see $320 - $325, possibly $300. The Russians are no longer a threat. I believe their gold is gone long ago to raise hard cash. An interesting aside, received on the COMEX last year; platinum with pictures of the Czar on the bars. 80 - 90 year old platinum. Is this the bottom of the barrel, or simply pillaged platinum from ex party members who have set up their various fiefdoms?

What about Bre-X? A very real expectation of 71 million ounces of gold was just taken off the market! Where is the reaction? That should have been good for $20, short term at least

What about the phenomenal rise of palladium, usually the forecaster of things to come. Look for platinum to follow in 4 - 6 weeks, with gold and silver hot on its heels a month or so later. We have seen many runs begin this way. I thought we were onto one in February but it was very anemic and failed completely. The PGMs in the last eight weeks should have roped gold and, willing or not, dragged it to $375 - $380. What did we get? A great short opportunity at $350. Gold is in a coma.

What about the recent drop in the dollar? Metals are dollar dominated what has happened to all that extra buying power? Where is it. Gold is a redheaded stepchild now and will remain so for the next few months.

I expect gold will test recent lows $336 - $338 in the next 3 - 4 weeks. If a small rally comes and fails again at $350, we will see $325. Thatís my take on it. perhaps the only bullish factor, other than big equities correction, or further substantial drop in the dollar, is what I believe to be the start of a really sweet run in platinum. I Called for over $500 platinum within the month at$402. We hit $506 in London, but I didnít get any part of that. Best I did was sell some in the 70s and buy some more in the 50s and 40s. Iím out of palladium for good. Let it go to $300 - it has a very good shot at it - it will go without men. My holdings are down to 500 oz and those will be gone at the next $225.

Gold may catch a ride, but in a market like this, Iíll take the leaders, silver and platinum. The profits are in these and they donít bite too hard.

I hope this answered some questions for Eldorado. Next: why the western world wonít collapse. Maybe next week sometime.

RJD
June 1997





Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 02:49
Bernie Raid on Fort Knox?>(Raid on Fort Knox?):
ted butler... re yours of 09.49....You stated that gold has physically been transferred onto the markets via lease agreements. Do you contend that gold has moved from Fort Knox or other US central bank depositories onto the market? If so, how much or what percentage of the central banks total gold supply is now in promises to return agreements?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 02:29
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
RJ: Your example looks fine when you use US$ - but today's world is
filled with many options to store my wealth. Does your example look as
good when you use Yen, Marks, or the swiss Franc? These all compete
with gold as a store of wealth. Just wondering.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 02:17
Jack Fundy & Richard Burke>(Fundy & Richard Burke):

Fundy ( 19:18 ) ( 19:35 ) Richard Burke ( 20:53 ) Thank you
both very much, that's what this group is about.
Not being a wise guy, when I say that Investor's Digest
of Canada's Key Ratio for 1000 Canadian Stocks is a
favorite. A very balanced publication, all industries
covered.
They have helped find Gulfstream Resources of Canada who
has a good interest ( 27.5% ) in the Qatar Consortium ( a
group of majors ) .
More important, are the untouched natural gas interests,
which are reputed to be extremely large.
Now all that is required, is quiet in the Persian Gulf,
plus an LNG Terminal and maybe a petrochemical complex by
a group of majors.
A tall order, see, I don't just dream about the gold
stocks.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:59
George S. Cole August gold>(August gold):
August gold now down $1.60. The Fidelity gold funds have declined for 3 consecutive days. Another case of the stocks leading bullion lower. Would not be surprised if August gold drops $3 by tomorrow's close.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:47
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Bart Kitner: The BRE-X salt shaker was my idea but I'm willing to transfer rights to the Kitco Company Store at such time as it becomes a reality. .... For free, .... mostly. ..... ( :- ) )


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:47
George S. Cole stock market and gold market>(stock market and gold market):
Earl:

Agree that we are approaching trouble time for the overall market, but probably are not quite there yet. Still too many strong stocks and group. Also remember my argument that each phase of this bull market runs about half as long as the previous leg. This latest phase has lasted just 2 months; the previous leg lasted 9 months. Suggests we still have another month or two to go.

I plan to get out of all non-gold holdings by mid-July; don't like to play too close to the timeline.

But trouble time for gold stocks is now. August gold off $1.30 on modest dollar rally. Note that gold goes down sharply when the dollar rallies, but moves up little if at all when the greenback declines. That is what I call very bearish technical action. Looks like we are headed for a final washout in the the gold complex before the turn.



Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:40
Earl Jr. @dad>(@dad):
Earl: What is punctuation PA? You should have done a better job teaching me how to read and write and be cool like you and Uncle Eldo.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:36
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
APH: How do you view funds as a vehicle to do the bear thing? I cannot say that my use of options has been a thing of beauty and a joy to behold. And for tax deferred accounts, direct purchase of options is not an option.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:31
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Jr.: Now concentrate on punctuation and your listlessness will become less apparent.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:31
Earl Jr. @eldo>(@eldo):
Hi Uncle Eldo!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:28
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
George Cole:

As mentioned a few days ago, the momentum indicators are still diverging, on the Dow and SP500. I realize you are looking at the Russell 2000 primarily. I wish I had been capturing data for that index. Also, because a friend reentered a position in INTC on that last dip, I look at the chart several times a day, merely out of curiosity .... ( and because I told him not to do it ) ....... INTC as well as the SOX index both look grim. ASND, one of the stellar performers over the past 2 years is off about 20 in the last few sessions. Cold comfort. Why dint it do that a long time ago when I was short? ....... Overall; are we approaching 'tumble time'? BTW. Are you of the 'slow grind' or of the 'sharp drop' school of thought?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:26
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Earl -- Is this so-called Earl Jr. one of your cousins or something? He seems to like us a lot! Or do you suppose he is 'one of THOSE' kind?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:21
Earl Jr. @earl>(@earl):
Earl: I listen to your every word that you can count on. haha. Hi Eldo!
Now be nice to your son who hangs on pa's every utterance.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:19
Eldorado @the peek!>(@the peek!):
Earl -- HAR! But, don't include me in that title. I'll be among the first to break it!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:16
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Eldo: If that law comes to pass, it will be called the Omnibus No Peek Eldo Bill of 1997. Authored, no doubt, by that paragon of respect for feminine virtue; Theodore Kennedy. Also known as Chappaquidick Ted. ....


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:12
APH [[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[>([[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[):
Earl - I wouldn't get to aggressive here....if you want to play I like July in the money puts on the SPX or puts on select stocks which couldn't rally to new highs during this recent Dow rally. Once the market drops I'd be more aggressive buying puts on the retracement.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:09
George S. Cole projections>(projections):
GLENN: Congratulations on your Dow 7500 forecast! Agree with you 100% that stocks will be headed up and gold sown for the next few weeks before both markets reverse in a substantial way. Say to Dow 8000 and gold $335.

BTW, gold quite weak tonight; off 90 cents a few minutes ago. As lomg as bullion cannot respond to good news, the path of least resistance will be DOWN.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:09
Bart Kitner (Kitco) bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com):
FOR FASTER EASIER UPLOADING... try this. Go to ftp://ftp.kitco.com/pub/discussion by entering that in the same place on your browser where you would put a http:// address. Once there select File/Upload File.. from your broswser menu and you're done!

BRE-X DEPT: It looks like the real plan behind the Bre-X scam was to make the serious bucks by licensing the caps, T-shirts, and saltshakers!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:08
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Cherokee: Good to see ya back. .... It wasn't the fancy wimmin that created the excitement; it was the prospect of studded collars 'n whips 'n chains. ....... but realistically, who needs 'em when we have the gold market to stir the endorphins.

How do you feel about new crop grains. Is it too early yet? As you stand on those oft mentioned shoulders, do you see any signs of wickedly riotous reagents in the rearing belt?


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:04
TED @ted>(@ted):
Ted ( 00:00 ) Meant to say topless...was so rattled couldn't get out the right word...Whew...Hi Cherokee!


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:04
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Earl -- You certainly have that right! Besides, breaking 'laws' is just emulating what the government does so well.


Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:00
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Front ( 22:24 ) I wouldn't want to see the Cape Breton Women bra-less!..haha
They've been eatin too many gov. hand-outs er somethin...EBN Gold down 1.30 and the Mailman CHOKED...big time!...Bra-less in Cape Breton=Nightmare...


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:58
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Eldo: Some laws are just naturally meant to be broken. ..... IMVHO. Listening Jr.?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:58
cherokee @another-SOLar system>(@another-SOLar system):
wow---take a 2 week hiatus from the pewter and what
do you get pew-titus! it is terrible and causes
foaming at the finger-tips. pewter keys got so
lathered-up, that steam, from the stream of key-strokes,
began to cause secondary burns on the cats' peripherial
vision centers.

what a marvelous medium, this inter-net, cyber-wet, world-wide
knowledge machine!! the pros and cons of everything from topless
women ( easy earl ) , to some alter-ego with a desire to be a big
trader ( probably wishes for OTHER BIG bodily appendages tam-bien ) .
from carlos castenada, to mike sheller and hale-bopp. IT is all
HERE, and more.

taking a respite from the daily platitudes this forum offers,
gives one time ( upon returning ) to reflect on the great diversity
this world, and this platform offers.

where else

no-where else, but kitco.

the written word is a thing of beauty, for all to see. speak it,
and it disappears into the void of the sleepwalkers. write it, and
the world becomes your critic, for better or worse, in good times and
bad, etc... ( earl knows those lines by heart )

the written language---one of the greatest inventions of ALL TIME!
the word---bearer of all that is, and harbinger of all that will be!

if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have stood on
the shoulders of giants. isaac newton

kitco is full of giants. it is good to see the SAME flame, burning
in the breast of so many, from so many, diverse walks of life.

to the contributors, i salute you with 21 arrows aimed at the moon.
to the detractors, i part your scalp with big traders scapula.

le bon temps roulet, mes amies!!

cherokee!; ) driver of the smoke-signal-mobile for all time!!!



Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:55
RJ >():
Tried to download WS FTP for Win95, wouldn't let me on. Is it personal? How else might I post a file or graphic?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:54
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Front: Under present circumstances, I hesitate to mention it ... but that last post should have begun as ROT'F'L. ..... well enough, shall be left alone.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:53
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Front -- Re: the topless 'women'; Next, the government will make a law imprisoning or fining anybody who looks. Can't have 'sexism' now, can we!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:53
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Earl:

Passed 'em 8 minutes ago....
Off to bed ....
Pleasant dreams....

TTFN


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:51
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Front: ROTL!! ... What are the present limits of propriety and are we approaching them?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:49
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Earl:

Can't...must change hands ....

TTFN


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:47
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Front: What's next. Chains required, whips optional? ..... but oh my goodness, you do get me excited when you talk like that. Do go on. .... ( :- ) )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:43
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Earl:

I was referring to the young lady on local TV last night. She and a friend were washing store windows, exposing themselves, apparently to see some reaction from passerbys. When they interviewed her, she said she was hot and so disrobed. I can accept that and as you say might have helped some of them if only I had known. The problem was that this young lady had on a collar. Not just any collar mind you but it looked like a collar a dog called SPIKE might use. It had domination written all over it believe me. My immediate thought was why she would wear it and then it hit me that she was protecting herself from those who disapproved. Tough life when you must wear a dog collar in order to expose your breasts even when legal!

Panda: Com'on up....bring your wallet .... we need the money ever since the damn socialists put us soooo much in the hole. We're going to start charging by the ounce !

TTFN


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:42
RJ Peace>(Peace):
Front - In case you did not notice, I apologized B4 your most recent. But you have a right to your response. I may be wrong sometimes, but I seldom stay wrong for long. You know nothing of me, nor I of you. I would hope that the sum of my arguments paints a picture of knowledge. In the passion of the moment, I sometimes forget that a sharp tongue cuts both ways, and a civil word begets civility


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:40
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
RJ: Yeah. I know what you mean. Like Magic Johnson's AIDs, it's easily
attained. And on a site like this, there's no tellin' what a guy'll pick up if'n he ain't careful. Like that USTN. Hear it's pretty much endemic.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:34
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

RJ:

I was typing my lastest when you were posting.

If I had seen your apology I would not have written.

I to apologise.

TTFN


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:33
RJ Maybe that's it>(Maybe that's it):
Earl - Maybe I do have some USTN. Gott'a do something about it.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:32
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):
RJ:

In my responce to your request for the verification of the figures, I wrote to you in a forthright and honest manner. I saw an error and attempted to say as much. I took the time out of my life to respond to you and yet what did I receive in your responce?

You said something about ignoring over $800 gold and comparing unlike fruits

I'm sorry, but that is being too flippant. Are you absolutely sure I was not expressing a genuine sorry for having taken for granted that you didn't know where the $521.50 came from? I know absolutely nothing about you except that you're called RJ. You could be 13 years old and really interest in stocks. You could be 113 and too old to remember stocks. Who knows. So what should I do? You said you didn't know where I got the number. I explained and apologised for taking you for granted. If you perceive an insult, it is in your mind, not mine. Insulting you would gain nothing since I'm sure you realize that whenever an argument seems lost, name calling becomes the sword. You Sir were mistaken and swung the sword incorrectly in my direction.

You can spout all the numbers from here to eternity. You can post till the keys fail on your keyboard. You can do anything you wish except get into my mind and yet you have assured yourself that that was exactly what I meant and then proceeded to heap name calling on me.
Sorry RJ .... this time YOU blew it .....
If you expect respect, give it.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:22
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
RJ: BTW. USTN? Useless Sorts of Typographical Nonesense? Unreleased Sexual Tension, No Uncle Sugar's Tin Nutcan. Right?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:11
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70hr.gif


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:08
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
RJ: Foul deed most fouly presented! Cannon to left of them, cannon to the right of them; volleyed and thundered ... Having just exhausted my Tennison; .... was it fair to include in your analysis the years 1950 to the mid 1970s when gold was actually released from indentured servitude? Since there would only be a net loss for that period.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:05
panda @>(@):
Well, the precious yellow is being yellow again this evening. Time to say good night.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:03
RJ Personal Affront>(Personal Affront):
Front - I guess I got a little carried away, I apologize.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:02
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Panda -- When does a credit system implode/explode? For one thing, you have to remember that it is first based upon a debt currency. Makes a BIG difference! Most inflation is thereby based on the prevailing interest rates for 'money', with a bit of time differential. Given that a certain amount of currency has to circulate to have a viable economy, and given that ALL this currency/credit etc. is loaned into existence with the the prevailing interest attached. All of this expanded debt/credit based on promise to pay. This can go on for quite some time until the 'credit-worthiness' of the borrowers falls to such a dismal level that re-payment cannot be had. In our case, exporting decent paying jobs can't help the situation either. An ever expanding mass of bancruptcies ensues as a beginning of the end. How long beyond that for the end? Perhaps the purchasers of all that ill-fated paper find that they don't want to be caught holding the proverbial bag. It just becomes a matter of time. In fact, all debt based money systems begin with the end already written! Lovely, ain't it?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:00
panda @>(@):
New fifty Dollar bills tomorrow! Courtesy of;




Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:57
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Vieserre: No, my son. You have elegantly displayed your bonfides. Feel free to enter the circle of those who know and practice all forms of egregious pomposity. ...... Listening Jr.?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:50
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Hey Front: C'mon. That bra burning business wasn't without it's compensation. You may have been less than thrilled with the political statement but it did much to change the summertime scenery. .... You know summer? The two weeks when the brass monkey is prominently displayed on the veranda. ...... As well, if you had known ahead of time you would have been prepared to gallantly offer matches and accelerant. ...... ( :- ) )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:44
panda @ :-)>(@ :-)):
Eldorado -- I've been working this from the wrong angle. I should be buying SPX calls and shorting the metals. This would cause the market collapse that some are looking for ( not me, oh no! ) and the metals to soar! You see I've got BT beat! I control the paper gold markets, yup. All I have to do is sell my HUI calls and gold will skyrocket! :- ) )

BTW, I guess no one is interested in the spoos tonight.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:41
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
I guess a spreadsheet doesn't paste so well. E-mail me for a copy.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:41
Vieserre The End of The Lease Triology>(The End of The Lease Triology):

EARL: Maestro, my obvious lack of communication skills continues to reveal itself for what I had thought I had expressed is exemplified by exactly what you contend. : )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:41
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- Re: your 21:05 once more; Hope there is still some physical metal out there to be had once a run-up has occurred. One ( of many ) of the possible reasons for the run-up will be because there isn't! That will be a big reason to already have it on hand, and perhaps to keep it there. Just for a very possible 'bad paper day' type of scenario. IMHO.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:40
Vieserre More to Come>(More to Come):

TED BUTLER: I appreciate your thoughtful response, and there is certainly no need for a point by point rebuttal as you rightfully surmised. Moreover, my comments were not intended for argument but for self-enlightenment.

We still have points in contention. I cannot disagree that when metal is released to the market, price is influenced as more metal is being supplied to the marketplace. But I continue to contend that it does not change the supply/demand equation. There is indeed a double
book-keeping entry effect along each step of the lease transaction. And when the metal is sold there is a liability of repurchase created. It cannot be otherwise. To argue otherwise would defeat your position that the reason for the sharp increase in price is due to the
necessity of cover arising from the liability created under the lease transactions.

I accept as fact, arguendo, your contention that there has not been a net repayment of metal loans in their 15 year existence. And I also do not dispute, as mentioned in my earlier post, that if their was a run for cover there should be a sharp escalation in price.

But I am constrained to disagree with your loan classification theory. Loans are made of cars, wheat, houses, and any and all sorts of property. And like, metals, if they cannot be returned because of being loss, destroyed, abandoned, or stolen, the lessor may recover damages for his loss. Accordingly, I see no difference with the metals. If the metals cannot be returned, the obligor has liability for damages for cost of cover. As to why the lease market shut down, I do not know all of the ramifications for this, and I would appreciate your comments on this. But I would assume, as you suggest, there is a limited supply, demand is high, and the lessor does not wish to lose the opportunity of selling a commodity rapidly rising in price by leasing it out for an extended period at a lease rate which cannot be reasonably calculated due to extreme volatility.

In summary, we are in complete agreement with regard to possible price consequences caused by outstanding leases should there be a cover run on the metal, even though we may disagree as to how and why we get there.




Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:38
Vieserre I Am Getting Leased Out>(I Am Getting Leased Out):
EARL, TED BUTLER: We may see the same thing but the manner in which I have described it may create the illusion of difference.

My prior comments were directed specificially to leases. But, even considering these and other such transactions of which I am aware in a generic sense, I do not dispute that such carry trade, hedging practices, and other shorting type derrivatives or activities can create a powerful latent technical force of cover in the underlying market that if played out over a short time period will unleash a rash of technical buying that should have the probable effect of causing a spike in price of the underlying stuff. And this is one reason why I maintain LT positions in gold equities and am bullish on the market.

What I have tried to suggest that in a perfect academic world these transactions have a double entry bookkeeping quality to them and have have not in any way affected the net supply of the stuff after they have been unwound. Accordingly, after each such transaction is unwound, the net affect on the price over time should be the same as if it had not executed. And any current effect on price will be whether these outstanding transactions are increasing or decreasing in number, and the time frame. Not unlike the effect of future players selling future contracts without the stuff they are selling and then reacquiring it by buying an offsetting contract.

And in many respects it is not much different in concept than a bank loaning out more money than it has in reserves with the adverse consequences engendered by a run on the bank. But as Ted adroitly points out, there are also differences, which I will address in specfic comments to him.

I will refer more directly to each of your comments in subsequent personal posts.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:36
RJ I was being generous>(I was being generous):
OKÖ Following are US Government CPI statistics. I think we can all agree that, if anything, the government understates these statistics. Also included are high and low gold prices for each of the last 20 years - provided by the Future Source, you read their FWN reports on the Kitco link. Note these numbers include $825 gold as well as $127 gold, hardly cherry picking my numbers.
I have added up the lows and highs and divided by 20. Who thinks this is a more accurate way to arrive at an average? Front, if you want to get snippy, Iíll let you be wrong at the top of your voice. My post to your carried none of the hostility contained in yours. But I guess this one does. I have also taken the low and high for the year and used the somewhat simplistic frontage method and then averaged those.

As all can see, I was being extremely generous assuming a 4% per year for the last 20 years. The actual average for the last 46 years is 4.1%! As can be seen, the last twenty years have averaged no less than 5.2%. I had no figures for 1995 and 1996 so followed the 2.7% trend of the two prior years, I expect no objections to that.

OK, lets move on, one 1950 dollar is today worth 15 cents, or, conversely one 1950 dollar had the same purchasing power that $6.62 does today. What was gold in 1950? According to the Kitco history of London fixes, $34.72. OK letís call it $35, Iím not picky. What is 35 x 6.62? Lets call it $232. Gold is now $344 or thereabouts. 232 / 344 = 67.4 % return on a FORTY SIX YEAR INVESTMENT! Remember, 7% compounded doubles in 10 years.

One 1977 dollar is now worth 37 cents. One 1977 dollar buys $2.72 today. Using the low of 1977, and again, I am trying to be kind, higher numbers only make it worse, $127 / .37 = $343.24. Isnít that just slightly lower than todayís close? Break even in 20 years? When those dollars have depreciated by almost two thirds? I leave the numbers with you. Should anyone like the Excel spreadsheet, e-mail me at rjd@pacbell.net and I will send it to you. Feel free to delve into the formulas to see what mathematical trickery I use. This is the common reference point I mentioned in an earlier post. I have quoted the source of these numbers, if anyone offers different, please do the same. Maybe someone can teach me how to post a file or image?


US GOVERNMENT CPI 20 YEAR GOLD
YEAR CHANGE $1.00 CHANGE $1.00 LOW HIGH AVERAGE
1950 5.8% $1.06
1951 5.9% $1.12
1952 0.9% $1.13
1953 0.6% $1.14
1954 -0.5% $1.13
1955 0.4% $1.14
1956 2.9% $1.17
1957 3.0% $1.20
1958 1.8% $1.23
1959 1.5% $1.24
1960 1.5% $1.26
1961 0.7% $1.27
1962 1.2% $1.29
1963 1.6% $1.31
1964 1.2% $1.32
1965 1.9% $1.35
1966 3.2% $1.39
1967 3.0% $1.43
1968 4.7% $1.50
1969 6.1% $1.59
1970 5.5% $1.68
1971 3.3% $1.74
1972 3.4% $1.79
1973 8.8% $1.95
1974 12.2% $2.19
1975 7.0% $2.34
1976 4.0% $2.44
1977 6.8% $2.60 6.8% $1.07 127 168 148
1978 9.0% $2.84 9.0% $1.16 167 245 206
1979 13.1% $3.21 13.1% $1.32 218 518 368
1980 12.6% $3.61 12.6% $1.48 463 825 644
1981 8.9% $3.93 8.9% $1.61 389 597 493
1982 3.9% $4.09 3.9% $1.68 298 486 392
1983 3.8% $4.24 3.8% $1.74 373 510 442
1984 4.0% $4.41 4.0% $1.81 307 405 356
1985 3.8% $4.58 3.8% $1.88 282 349 316
1986 1.1% $4.63 1.1% $1.90 327 443 385
1987 4.4% $4.84 4.4% $1.98 389 502 446
1988 4.4% $5.05 4.4% $2.07 392 487 440
1989 4.7% $5.29 4.7% $2.17 356 419 388
1990 6.1% $5.61 6.1% $2.30 346 425 386
1991 3.1% $5.78 3.1% $2.37 341 403 372
1992 2.9% $5.95 2.9% $2.44 328 362 345
1993 2.7% $6.11 2.7% $2.51 325 414 370
1994 2.7% $6.27 2.7% $2.57 372 401 387
1995 2.7% $6.44 2.7% $2.64 371 398 385
1996 2.7% $6.62 2.7% $2.72 368 417 393
1997
AVERAGE 4.1% $0.15 5.2% $0.37 327 439 383




Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:35
panda @>(@):
Just a silly thought here, but at what point does the credit system implode or explode? If a currency is continually debased over time due to 'inflation', where and when does it stop? Is it asymptotically, as we approach one over zero ( 1/0 ) ? When a car costs $500,000 and gold is still at $340, or will gold go to $50/oz? At some point the credit system must 'fail'. One only has to look at the rising bankruptcy rate in a 'good' economy, and question some fundamental tenants presented by the gold bears.

One could write a lot of 'paper', and drive down the 'price' of gold to whatever, but in the end, isn't it about storing ones labor for future use? How does the credit system protect this when it is trying to constantly 'discover' the 'correct' interest rate ( lagging ) to preserve your purchasing power? BTW, it seems to do this poorly, or is that because of taxes?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:35
Vieserre home>(home):
EMU: vel Done : ) ) ) ) )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:34
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Nothing interesting going on in the gold and silver market! Oh well ... a couple of interesting annual meetings on June 20th ( I think ) .


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:24
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Mooney: Sorry but I missed it in the paper. Save it for me? Or have you already dribbled over it too much? The up here I was referring to was Ottawa. Personally, I knew this would happen as soon as they wanted to burn their bras. Shouldn't have given them the vote either! Must be Liberals !

TED: Sorry to leave you out of the view of the lovely ladies in Ontario, but according to you, those socialists are not much to look at eh! Well, if it catchs on in Cape Breton, maybe they will .......


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:22
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Panda -- What? You never thought you could make a price drop just by buying it? Shame on you for your short-sightedness! ( All in jest! )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:19
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

RJ:

To quote:

The key is to not buy gold and hold it. The key is to ( and some of you have probably smelled this coming ) buy gold and sell it!!! Buy low, sell high. Then, either sell short, or wait for a dip and buy it again. If you must own gold, use the profits from your trades to buy your gold. Use your gold to acquire gold. Most of all, don't forget the other metals

Sit down for this....it's BIG.... That's exactly the point I was expressing in my post this morning. If we had sold when Gold was at $800 we would have had a profit.

Does this mean we agree? Oh GOD! What have I wrought !

TTFN ( :- )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:18
panda @>(@):
Steve Puetz -- You've seen what I've done to the gold sector by buying in to it, wait till I get to the S&P! :- ) )

Front -- I'm on my way to see the public display in your area!

RJ -- ROTFL........ Rolling On The Floor Laughing :- ) )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:18
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Speed: Und zen ve vill haf ze bratwurst und bier. Ya. Mucho cervesa, muy bien.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:14
Speed ooops>(ooops):
I meant EMU not EWP, sorry.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:11
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
APH: Are you saying that the time has arrived to consider some bearish derivative instruments? Like puts 'n things? If you are prone to such; what strike and time?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:05
Speed this is fun>(this is fun):
Earl: Ve vill haf order und discipline here!
Remember Hogan's Heros? Those terrible German accents. I read EWP's post in that tone and laughed out loud.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:05
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
RJ: No, not really. And yes, you would be crossing over the line. It should become a part of the idiom ( gonna regret that word ) by common assent. .... But what the hell; you've ( you have ) already broken all rigidly held standards of decorum here anyway so ..... by all means, continue. .......


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:01
vronsky I REMEMBER ALL TOO WELL>(I REMEMBER ALL TOO WELL):
RJ: You would do me a disfeavor by mistaking politeness for memory lapse. But apart from that, perhaps, you are referring to Lee J. Cobb ( his Hollywood name ) - which was a drastic contraction of his real ethnic name.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:01
APH .............................>(.............................):
S&P Cash - Last night ( 6/10 19:56 ) I posted that Wave III being 2.618 x Wave I on a monthly chart would project a high at 870.70. Today's cash high was 870.66. Close enough. We should go down into the 39 week cycle low due end of June early July.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:57
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Speed: Wasn't aware LOL had that connotation. .... Geeez, if we can't handle a few contractions, how do you think the europeans will handle EMU's new English?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:54
RJ You took the bait>(You took the bait):
Front - stand by.............


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:53
RJ who you winkin' at>(who you winkin' at):
Earl - thanks, I feel up to speed now. Hey a new one! UTSN. is that allowed? can I just make something up like that, or am I crossing over the line here?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:53
vronsky EMU - ENGLISH LANGUAGE MASTER>(EMU - ENGLISH LANGUAGE MASTER):
EMU: Ref: Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:29 -- EMU ( @London ) : Many thank you's for relieving a tediously long and tiresome day. That was brilliant and very funny rhetoric.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:51
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

RJ:

Sorry to have been a burden to your calculator.

Sir:

You get an AVERAGE by adding the numbers and then dividing by the number of items added i.e......

$327 + $716 = $1043 / 2 = $521.50

You quoted the word average. I thought you knew how to achieve it . Obviously I was mistaken. I'm sorry. My mistake.

TTFN


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:51
Speed uh oh>( uh oh):
Earl: We better get together on this or the new guy will think we're pulling his leg. : )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:50
RJ Vronsky>(Vronsky):
Vronsky - someone thought you were me. ( 00:36 ) I hope this puts and end to all such rumors. After all you couldnít even remember that it was: Henry Fonda, E.G.Marshall, Jack Klugman, and the Loud Overbearing, Lillyliverd guy.. .. who was he? You know, the last guy to fold. Little help here.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:49
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
RJ: Laughing Out Loud. ..... had an addition to your list but it was too salacious for a straight laced group like this. .... Before this becomes too tedious: BTW = By the way. .... and that should complete the most commonly used shorthand.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:48
Speed @home>(@home):
RJ: LOL - lots of luck BTW- By the way Also try the emoticons like ; )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:48
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- Re: your 21:05. Last three paragraphs: Now your talkin'!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:44
vronsky THE MOVIE>(THE MOVIE):
RJ - Of course I was referring to the TWELVE ANGRY MEN.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:43
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
RJ: Who me? Nah! I tend more toward pompous than Orwelian. ..... Lest we become distracted from the evening's ( evenings ) business; I agree with your earlier post. .... A trite expression, Fall in love with your women, not your investments. .... Personal experience has cast a doubt on the advisability of the first statement as well.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:41
RJ LOL>(LOL):
LOL..... Loud, Overbearing, and Lillylivered? Hey, Iím new at this.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:41
vronsky Twelve Angry Men. >(Twelve Angry Men. ):
RJ: It is also one of my 10 favorites of all time. Was It Fonda? Its been many a year since I last saw it.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:38
RJ Forgot my manners>(Forgot my manners):
Prior to EMU. Hmmm EMU, is that the same as the bird? You know long neck, knobby knees, ostrich like?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:33
RJ Is it Newspeak?>(Is it Newspeak?):
A hilarious if somewhat Orwellian post!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:32
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
RJ: LOL. .. Nah! Nothing as clever as that. Merely, shorthand for a popular form of literary affectation; In My Humble Opinion. Often seen with variants. ......... ( :- ) )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:28
RJ OK, Lets have it>(OK, Lets have it):
Have some pity on the new guy. What is IMHO? Iím Mad as Hell Over this? I Must be Holding to much, Overbought? IMagine Hanging Ourselves? The Independent Metals Holistic Organization? Incurably Mentally Handicapped Other-worlders? Are you guys even human? What have I gotten myself into.....


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:22
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Jr. : Please check out EMU @20:29. Consider it the first step to adult communication. BTW, IMHO, your vocabulary has shrunk. It was much deeper and more colorful the other day.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:18
RJ I do belive>(I do belive):
PB - I have always believed in the Sun Ether. I just never had a face for my faith. Thank you for enlightening me. I feel sooooo warm...........


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:14
Larry The race has begun>(The race has begun):
I haven't seen too many comments about the most obvious and possible most reliable indicator in the universe. What are the chances of 'Touch of Gold' and 'Silver Charm' coming in 1-2 in the Belmont. This is an obvious sign from whoever is in charge.

While a good analyst can evaluate indicators, a great analyst knows which indicators are real. You have been alerted, so make the most of it.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:13
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
Mike Sheller - 06:16 - By far the most enjoyable posting I have ever read from these hallow halls. I laughed out loud. Your second posting - 08:35 - was well reasoned and wise. Let me offer my highest form of praise: You are a man who thinks the next thought. I sense a kindred spirit.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:11
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
IMHO, ( for you Jr. ) ...... Back to Philby. The banks can put whatever value on gold that pleases them but as long as there remains an open market, the market will determine the price. Very much like interest rates. The market controls those as well. ...... The only way they can maintain control is if they confiscate the metal and ban individual possesion.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:05
RJ Keep reading>(Keep reading):
Front - Were did the figure of $512.50 come from? Iíve been doing mathematical contortions all day trying to figure it out. You are correct, I asked for refutation, but the statement that now has been done is but cold satisfaction with no data to back it up. You said something about ignoring over $800 gold and comparing unlike fruits. Keep watch for a soon to follow post, you will find it interesting.

Let me proclaim now from the mountaintop! Hear me in every bazaar! Hush your restless whispers, be still in the pews, and behold: You are all right! Gold is very undervalued now. It is a great buy! It is even better than many of you realize! You will note that my argument to this point has been that gold has proven to be a very poor buy and hold investment. Gold has been a rubber dinghy with a hole in the bottom. The water leaks in faster than you can bail it out. The weight of all this gold can have you chest deep in a folded yellow boat with the water inexorably inching higher. You will drown holding more than what you consider absolutely necessary for times of disaster ( a very different amount for each person ) .

The key is to not buy gold and hold it. The key is to ( and some of you have probably smelled this coming ) buy gold and sell it!!! Buy low, sell high. Then, either sell short, or wait for a dip and buy it again. If you must own gold, use the profits from your trades to buy your gold. Use your gold to acquire gold. Most of all, don't forget the other metals

I have tried to make my points in a linear progression. Some of you have conceded a few of my points, others still doubt. OK. Letís ( lets Waite? Let us? ) all agree on some numbers. Lets all speak from a common point of reference. Let us begin this debate in earnest. Yes I have only started. Look for my next post. By the way, my favorite movie is Twelve Angry Men.




Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:01
Richard Burke WOW!>(WOW!):
EMU: the tears are still pouring down my face. I have'nt read anything so funny in a long time. The Saints preserve us from new spelling!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:54
Byron @ The Closing:>(@ The Closing:):
Library is closing. Nite All!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:53
Earl Jr. @eldont>(@eldont):
IMHO: Bla bla bla bla bla


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:53
Richard Burke richard_burke@bc.sympatico.ca>(richard_burke@bc.sympatico.ca):
Jack: Both the Investment Reporter and the Investors Digest have been recommended to you on this site. They are two different publications obtainable from the same source. Both are Canadian. The Reporter has a selection of Key Stocks and recommends several for income purposes and several for growth purposes from the list each month depending on what should be moving. They include about 50 US stocks. They recently won a US award for picking stocks that gave the best return. The Digest is a biweekly ( I think ) compendium of brokerage house analyses and recommendations. I subscribe to both and find them useful. The Reporter recently had an article on gold stocks with a selected list and a discussion on when to buy - later they said. I can't recall the publisher's name right now, but could fax or e-mail it to you if you e-mail me your numbers. It doesn't show on my e-mail address, but there is an underline between richard and burke, i.e. richard_burke.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:51
PB somewhere out there>(somewhere out there):
RJ: I take it you don't believe in the sun ether?

Mike Sheller: I was quoting Gurudas who refers to Alice Bailey. Who is she? It says here that her book is Esoteric Astrology, but I'm sure I'm getting off topic.

PB

P.S.: I love all you guys. I've been lurking for over a year but RJ's comments brought me into the light. Somehow I couldn't resist.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:50
WW New England>(New England):
What does anyone think of the Dec. Silver $6.00 calls which expire in Nov. at $250.00 or less.?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:47
fifz gam @ salt lak sit>(@ salt lak sit):
Jaz vil vin in 6...


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:43
Byron @ At The Top (more or less)>(@ At The Top (more or less)):
Mr. Puetz: This centipede only has 9 legs! ( :* ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:40
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):
Mooney: I'll take any signals which come my way.:- )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:37
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Ted: me too! My friends and I laugh when we lose money! What else can you do.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:34
Steve Puetz @ Byron>(@ Byron):
Alan Abelson calls it the centipede bull market -- because it has so many legs.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:32
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.>(mhurst@ix.netcom.):
Gold and silver have been boring me today. I need excitement in my life. Ted, got your excellent epistle, have responded in kind. Jazz will whip Bulls in SLC tonight then will have to win one of two. I predict Jazz in 7. I further predict another boring day tomorrow in the metals.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:29
EMU @London>(@London):
This may be of interest of those of you who are debating the ECU


New EC Regulations
The European Commission have just announced an agreement whereby
English
will be the official language of the EU rather than German, which was
the
other possibility. As part of the negotiations, Her Majesty's
Government
conceded that English spelling had some room for improvement and has
accepted a 5 year phase-in plan that would be known as EuroEnglish:
In the first year, s will replace the soft c.. Sertainly, this will
make
the sivil sevants jump with joy. The hard c will be dropped in favor
of
the k. This should klear up konfusion and keyboards kan have 1 less
letter.

There will be growing publik enthusiasm in the sekond year, when the
troublesome ph will be replaced with the f. This will make words
like
fotograf 20% shorter.

In the third year, publik akseptanse of the new spelling kan be
expekted to
reach the stage where more komplikated changes are possible.
Governments
will enkorage the removal of double letters, which have always ben a
deterent to akurate speling.

Also, al wil agre that the horible mes of the silent e's in the
language
is disgraceful, and they should go away.

By the fourth yar, peopl wil be reseptiv to steps such as replasing
th
with z and w with v. During ze fifz year, ze unesesary o kan be
dropd from vords kontaiining ou and similar changes vud of kors be
aplid
to ozer kombinations of leters.

After zis fifz yer, ve vil hav a reli sensibl riten styl. Zer vil be no
mor
trubls or difikultis and evrivun vil find it ezi tu understand ech
ozer.

ZE DREM VIL FINALI KUM TRU!!





Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:21
TED @thegoodlife>(@thegoodlife):
Mooney: Hasn't it cooled off enough to show houses NOW...Front: We made it past hump day and weekend is in sight...Tort: What's yer take on tonights action in Gold and in the windy city...GO JAZZ!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:20
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
Maybe this is the calm before the storm. This paper bubble can't take much more, or can it?Who's got the needle ?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:15
philby Oregon>(Oregon):
Maybe this scenario doesn't make sense, but what if the central banks entered into a formal agreement to revalue all gold holdings to say $400 per ounze, and just admit the fact of long term monetary inflation? Also, since it seems the CB's want to get out of the gold holding business, to agree to a 50 year plan to liquidate holdings, say at 2% max sales per year. Would this help the euro dollar/emu situation to stay on schedule, increase gold sales income to CB's and also create a smooth transition to the gold markets with little damage to mining companies and investors. Periodically the value of gold could be adjusted to the true market value. Does this make sense, and what would happen to the value of gold in the market place if the CB's did this


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:15
TED @ewp>(@ewp):
EWP ( 20:07 ) I remember Chuck the human punching bag...but could he take a punch!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:14
Mooney @Byron!>(@Byron!):
Sorry Byron! Didn't mean to be talking topless at the same time as you're talking top of the market!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:11
Mooney @Front>(@Front):
I take it Mr. Front that you were not at all affronted by the Front page of today's Toronto Sun newspaper ( ? ) which featured two buxom topless young ladies suntanning down at the Beaches area of Toronto. SAY! Now I know why Selby goes for a walk there everyday he can! Ladies of the night? ( In Muskeg Territory? )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:09
Byron @ Hmmmmm:>(@ Hmmmmm:):
On the daily Dow Jones Industrial chart, it sure appears that the Dow is now putting in a 9th wave up from the April 14th bottom. : )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:09
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Glenn: oh well ... I only have a small % of my portfolio in mining stocks ( everything else is up ) . I guess I can't complain. I think I might buy more. The timing may be right to buy when everyone, including myself, is losing hope.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:07
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Glenn: I hope this gold trend ends soon. My mining shares are taking a pounding. I feel like Chuck Wepner ( if you know anything about heavyweight boxing ) .


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:01
Glenn Au>(Au):
Today was the deadest day I have seen so far in Gold. It was really boring. The trend in Gold is still down and the trend in stocks is still up. The intermediate trend at the very least shall chance, ( With Gold up and stocks down ) in a few more weeks, say at least 2 more but no more than 5 )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:56
Speed @home>(@home):
Glenn: Well done! Now then, what's next? Or, at least tell us some more about the trading pits.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:53
Glenn au_usa@hotmail.com>(au_usa@hotmail.com):
I know it's not right to bragg, and normally I do not, but since I was the only person anywhere calling for the DOW to hit 7500 before the end of June, ( Stated in April, about 100 full S&P points ago, here in Kitco ) allow me one I told you so.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:45
Byron @ Throwing Darts:>(@ Throwing Darts:):
RT: Re: XAU and TA - Please see http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/8139


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:44
tradered traded@tminet.com>(traded@tminet.com):
To read a sample issue of the Dines Letter, and excellent gold oriented newsletter in the internet, try www.dinesletter.com


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:42
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

TED:

Thanks for the concern. I took your advise and tried to take it easier however, I fell asleep while thinking about slowing down. My guess is that helped. My gut spoke to me today ... no logic at all ... just a hunch ... now full into metals.

Mooney:

Was it even too hot for the topless girls? Understand you're having the same problenms as we are with the ladies of the night advertising in a different, forthright, fashion ( or lack thereof! ) .

Toplessness! This is going to be great for the tourism business this summer, isn't it! Sweden of North America !

TTFN


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:42
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
Hey junior- you got my vote for this week!!!

June is June is June, there ain't nothin like June for a dead gold month.

Tally HO


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:35
Fundy Correction>(Correction):
Jack: Its call Investors Digest.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:24
junior TA of XAU>(TA of XAU):
Everything says that the XAU bottomed at the end of April. The correction was ~60 % which is a nice correction. Indicators all point to up. On the very short term we may be slightly high. The best part is that if we are going up it will be big . We will have several days of 2 and 3 points. Wave structures are inconclusive right here. More later


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:18
Fundy Leaving>(Leaving):
Jack: It isn't that hard to do. As a Canadian I trade the TSE mostly and the number of good companies is relatively as well as absolutely limited. Anyone with the wherewithall to connect up to Kitco can identify the 50-60 good companies in a day's work. There is a publication that will do it for your called the Investment Reporter I believe.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:12
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
REB: Gold and silver pay no interest because they are money. Only credit market instruments pay interest -- to compensate the holder for a variety of risks -- including, loss of purchasing power and risk of default. These are not risk associated with owning the precious metals.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:10
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
LAN MAN: 40% of the market value of all residential homes are loaned out. That include retired people who have paid off their mortgage. If you onlt include baby-boomers, it's probably more like 85% of the market value that is mortgaged. I got an add in the mail yesterday, a company in California said they would loan me 125% of the market value of my home!!!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:06
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
BW: Well said @ 9:04 a.m.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:05
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
PANDA: Sounds like you're proposing we use the bigger-fool theory to push up the S&P futures. Leave me out! But do let me know when you all have bought.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 18:26
squinch al>(al):
...at least Greenspan has some good insights...now, iffin' he'd just make that leap away from paper...

http://www.economeister.com/curracct/970611ca/green_ma.htm


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 18:13
The Sultan of Credit And we sent our best men>(And we sent our best men):

We have successfully kept the lid on precious metal
prices over the past several years. Our hope was, that
by doing such; that eventually a huge gold strike would
occur, and allow us to prosper, with our credit scheme.

We sent our best and brightest to Indonesia, only to find
disappointment.

We are sure that some one is ploting against us.

Please god have mercy on our soul's, so we may spread our
paper promises to all men of good faith and feed our
greed.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 17:43
bw us real estate:>(us real estate:):
At least this is a real asset. The problem is it's nominal value has been vastly inflated by our ongoing credit bubble. Should the price of your 200,000 dollar house ( which was worth 25,000 fourty years ago ) fall to say 50,000 you may be little affected. However if you have a 150,000 loan and must sell you will be hurt big time. What might cause such a drop in nominal value? Ten percent or more of the residential housing in this country is unoccupied at any time. Some people own more than one home which they do not rent. When times get hard this will end. Suppose you have a large house, say 3000 sq feet. Your neighbor has the same. You both get layed off for what looks like a very long time. Want to cut your housing expenses by 50%? Just sell one house and you both have 1500 sq feet to live in ( three chinese families could live comfortably here ) and split all the expenses of one house. Hey, it might even be fun depending on your neighbor. Never happen you say. Not today, but times change. In terms of square feet we are the most over housed people in the history of the world. Its my feeling when the crunch comes you will be able to buy your dream house for a few thousand ounces of silver. Yes this does require a indeterminate wait.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 17:27
Richard Burke Whereto XAU>(Whereto XAU):
Two necessary conditions for the break-out of the XAU have not occured yet - a major volume day for ABX ( 2,000,000 or more, preferably 3,000,000 or more ) ; and the difference between spot gold and the xau getting up over 250 ( see Kaplan ) . For the latter to happen gold is going to have to lead the xau up, and this is usually not the case, or the xau is going to drop to about 90 first if gold continues its basing at current levels. I know some of you feel that gold will in fact lead the xau this time and that a number of you are reading a basing movement which could result in a break-out. I know that George Cole is not expecting a break-out until later in the summer. Any comments?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 17:19
George S. Cole gold rally>(gold rally):
I was premature in my gold stock comments. Most of the stocks I follow went up, but both Fidelity gold funds were down. Today's rally was much narrower than I thought. APH is correct -- XAU, HUI, and FSAGX must move up together if a rally is to have a chance of sustaining itself.

MOONEY: Perhaps it will be different this time with bullion leading the stocks. But my bet still is that the stocks will lead.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:58
Jack Fundy>(Fundy):

Fundy: Seem's to be the impression that stocks ( of the
non Precious Metal variety ) do nothing but go up. I
believe that with some 30,000+ listed securities
out†there, the ability to pick the right one ( s ) becomes
limited. As for the 4000 Mutual Funds, their
advertisements do not attract; as they have to pick
from the 30,000+ listed securities. This is not to
conclude that it is impossible to find -then buy- a good
stock, it's just difficult. In sum, they go up and down;
just like their gold stock cousins.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:57
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Mooney @16:29: Loved that quote. A lot. I have committed it to memory and will slip it back in here ( without attribution ) in few a months after everyone else has forgotten. ........ ( :- ) )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:53
TED @NOVICE>(@NOVICE):
Novice: Sent ya an e-mail this mornin but made the mistake of sending it to the office...Does anyone out there work....At least Mooney drove around for a while and faked it...Front: What a beautiful day on the ocean and your river must be great on such a hot day!...but please slow down a bit and smell the roses...


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:39
TED @mooney>(@mooney):
Mooney: Good excuse....hahaha ...it's too hot...hahaha..


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:29
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Very few things happen at the right time, and the rest do not happen at all; the conscientious historian will correct these defects. -- Herodotus



Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:25
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Ted of Scaterie - I'm Back! Yea, I know, tough life Mooney with those long hours, but it's 93 degrees in the shade in T.O., all of a sudden, and that kinda slows down the average person's metabolism to the point that they say, forget it, we'll look at houses another day, it is just too darn hot to think straight!
Ted of Gold Loan fame. - Another excellent thought provoking post at 15:22. Certain grains of truth there.
George ( of 'kingly' fame ) - Considering that we generally do take past occurrences and project that they will repeat themselves, ( with slight variations ) in the future, your theory is sound. However, the unexpected also happens quite frequently and perhaps Mr. Butler's ruminations may prove correct in this case. Time will tell, but certainly, if the Platinum storey repeats in Gold and Silver the physicals will, in this instance, lead the stocks.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:24
APH '''''''''''''''''''''''''''>('''''''''''''''''''''''''''):
YellowDog - I would like to see the XAU close above 105 with Fidelity Select Gold ( FSAGX ) up at least .30 at the same time. Today for example XAU was up 150+ points while FSAGX was up a couple points and down .02 at 3 pm. This tells me the XAU isn't going to break out now. At best its sideways to down.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:17
TED @ocean>(@ocean):
Tort: Just read yer e-mail...when do ya want me ta make the hit...and how will I know if it's the right broker?...They all look the same...Will try and get somethin off after diner which I am now makin...On the menu: Greek Cauliflower and Bulghur Pilav...HI FRONT!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:09
Blonde @Platinum>(@Platinum):
D.A. Thank you for the caution re Phoenix Gold. Your posts today have been helpful as well. Do you see an imbalance between supply and demand of PGM's in the intermediate term? ( say 1-2 years ) . I'm confused as to why the US mint would choose this time to issue platinum coins if there is an impending supply problem with such an important metal.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:09
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Back from the woods and see I missed alot...Comex Gold+Silver @ UNCH but Platinum+Palladium resumed upward thrust as did the trusty old DOW..up 36.56 ...XAU up 1.23...How many people have missed the entire 13 year Bull market by thinking the sky is goin ta fall?...Some day YOU will be right!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 15:39
George s. Cole XAU>(XAU):
GERY: You are correct; gold stocks did lead bullion up in 1993. I suspect the same thing will happen this year. Still yoo early to tell if today's upward thrust will be sustained though.

Just to point out how cheap gold stocks are today versus the overall market. The XAU would have to climb to 140 to establish the same relationship to the Dow Industrials as prevailed at the BEGINNING of the 1993 gold bull. It would have to approach 300 to establish the relationship that prevailed at the END of the 1993 bull ( assuming the Dow remains at 7500 ) .


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 15:22
ted butler @ the markets>(@ the markets):
D.A.

Your zinc post was appreciated, as are all you posts. As you know I feel strongly about the precious metal loans, and I hope you didn't think I was implying that they were the driving factor in all other markets. As far as I know they are peculiar to the PMs. You did raise a point that I've contemplated for years, namely the observation that nowadays a commodity seems to scrape bottom price wise until inventory levels become so critical that the price goes perpendicular. While it very well may be for the reasons you suggest, I'd like you to consider another. That is, that because the price is set in the paper areana, on and off exchange, in the great struggle between the dealers and the large spec funds, the price is no longer discovered in the usual sense, i.e., following developments in the real cash market. What I'm suggesting is that the price is set first, then supply and demand adjust to it. This would explain how inventories of a commodity like zinc could decline over a long period of time with no impact on price, because any individual zinc producer or consumer would have marginal impact on price if a huge paper battle was being waged that resulted in a certain price level.

Let's look at a more personal example, silver. As you indicted about a week ago, along with RJ, bw and others ( me included in spirit, if not word ) a sharp rise could come as the battle was joined between the spec funds and the dealers, and there were all sorts of option expirations and positions taken and key technical trigger points. While it doesn't look like there will be any fireworks before friday ( and it breaks my heart ) , it was clear to all that the outcome was certainly not going to be over any changes in silver fundamentals. Hell, you know they're as bullish as can be. It had to with which warring group was going to get the upper hand. Unfortunately, the group I bet on didn't win. Too bad. But my point is this condition, which you know of in more detail than I do, while short term in this example, is symptomatic of all the markets and can result in long term cash market distortions if the paper battle is long term in nature. In other words, if the dealer community continuously floods a market with paper contracts to thwart the specs and succeeds in driving the price down over a long period of time, as production and consumption adjust, inventories will decline to eventually the critical level, and then we explode in price. You are right that this is not the way we learned economics.



Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 15:15
RT @weekly XAU w/lots of goodies>(@weekly XAU w/lots of goodies):
Much to chew on; anyone TA person want to study and post a stab at where we might be going? ( click on icon ) :


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 14:58
yellowdog @APH>(@APH):
APH: if you're lurking out there somewhere, please repost the XAU level that would change your mind about it going down to the mid 90's. I was looking at several charts last night, and , I am convinced it wont go down much further from this point, but , then again, it doesn't always behave like I particularly want it to.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 14:57
Fundy Uping Anchor>(Uping Anchor):
Speed: 1. Trading gold is a full time activity and not an investment except maybe a one day investment. If you can do it do it.
2. The current correctionless stock market is no more an anomoly than the $850 gold and I agree it won''t continue for ever.
3. The average Joe couldn't come up with the $20.67 for a lot of gold either.
4. Don't understand your use of the term new paradign. I have only lost money in bullion and oil. Doing well currently in banks, communications, oil, and pipelines.

5. I'm fully invested since 1991 so I'm up about 350% in non precious metals and still waiting for the calamity to move the bullion and
mining shares. Move them up.

Leaving Fundy with the Tide as it happens. Talk to you latter.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 14:51
panda @reverse.alchemy!>(@reverse.alchemy!):
REB, Speed -- What a concept, turning gold in to paper!!! :- ) )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 14:43
REB na>(na):
Re gold leasing: One of the knocks re gold is that it pays no interest. Isn't gold leasing a means of letting it do that? If someone likes gold as a store of value, but also wants to collect interest and not keep it around the house, it could be lent to someone else to be repaid later with interest. Obviously this means credit risk is assumed, but that's a reasonable business decision.

I suppose the difference between gold debt and dollar debt is that the fed can't print gold to fulfill its role of lender of last resort as it can with the dollar.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 14:41
Speed @lunch>(@lunch):
Fundy: 1. Gold has had some good moves since 1981. In 1993 for instance, gold and gold shares staged a nice up move. If you were astute enough to buy in late 1995 and get out in about May of 1996, you made some money. Call it trading vs. investing, but it's still profit.
2. Stocks have been on a tear for 6 years which is an anomaly, historically. There should have been at least one 20% correction somewhere in there and several 10% corrections. They haven't happened. Will this new paradigm continue? I don't think so.
3. Gold at 20.67 for 100 years was a good investment because during most of that time, prices went down ( deflation ) increasing the purchasing power of the gold. The point is moot, because Joe average citizen couldn't invest in stocks for most of that time anyway. He was ducking arrows, investing in 40 acres and a mule, etc.
4. I invest in more than bullion and mining shares. I've made and lost money on semiconductor stocks, energy services, a growing P&C Insurance company to name a few. I'm in gold primarily because I believe the new paradigm is bunch of bologna ( baloney ) .
5. The next 5 years will be very different from the last twenty and I'll bet that gold looks very good, while you take the paper side. Time will tell which of us made the right call.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 14:32
panda @>(@):
Ron Weidner -- If my currency were the rubble, er, I mean Ruble, and I were confused with the new $100 bills ( wait till tomorrows introduction of the new Fifty Dollar bills! ) versus the old $100 bills... I think I would want some gold if I could afford it! It seems the mainstay of the 'store of value' in Russia is the U.S. Dollar, specifically the $100 bills. Of course the 'new' bills are counterfeit resistant! :- ) ) It is, none the less, another curious story.... Somehow I don't think the Russian government would be doing this for 'the good of the citizens' though.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:59
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
D.A.: Your zinc market illustration with elaboration was much appreciated. What appears to be a contradiction on the surface, makes more sense when someone explains it.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:52
Ron Weidner raweidner@space.honeywell.com>(raweidner@space.honeywell.com):
Panda Sorry, it was in a SI response, and I didn't think most people could access. Also sorry I missed yours. RW


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:44
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Speed: Mike Sheller has made a valid point but not related to the one that got me into this discussion. Certainly gold functioned very well against a rare event when it was worth $850 for a short time. It has not been a good investment since that time. If there is another similiar event it will be a good investment again. If you only read what is posted here you would think the financial calamity is going to happen this afternoon. The rest of the world are fools, storing paper and investing in mutual funds or buying stocks making 20-30% annually for years now. What morons. Paper is absurd, the world is running out of silver, IT can't last. One day this will all be true for a couple days.

Will you recognize it? Will you be alive when it happens? These IMO are the contrasting questions. Trying to defend why one would park money in a 20-20% paper investment as opposed to waiting for a calamity with money in a wasting investment is absurd. Prior to 1935 it was worth $20.67 for a hundred years. Not too good an investment for a century. That too is a part of history.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:43
panda @>(@):
Ron Weidner -- see my 13:11.

In the FWIW column, I must climb upon my high horse now. Folks, let us remember that there are copyright laws. URLs are more appropo. No offense Ron, but some folks are posting realllly long articles here. A URL is more than sufficient, IMHO. Personal attacks upon me may now commence! Dismounting my high horse now. :- )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:40
Gery Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox>(Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox):
George s. Cole: Gold stocks up. If I remember right gold stocks went up BEFORE the big gold-rally in 1993 started.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:38
Byron @ Waiting for 106:>(@ Waiting for 106:):
What will it take to get the XAU through the 106+ area? Friday's expirations


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:35
Ron Weidner raweidner@space.honeywell.com>(raweidner@space.honeywell.com):
Have you all seem this?
Russian banks soon able to buy gold bars - Nemtsov

VLADIVOSTOK, Russia, June 11 ( Reuter ) - The Russian government is working on plans to allow commercial banks with the correct licences to buy gold bars, First Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov said on Wednesday.
He said the document relating to this issue would be signed in the the next few days. Nemtsov was speaking during a whirlwind trip to Russia's Far East, where a long-running energy crisis continues.

``This measure alone would be enough to help the gold mining industry out of a crisis,'' he said.

Nemtsov said Russia produced 113 tonnes of gold in 1996, and that output this year was expected to fall by several tonnes.

Gold output estimates in Russia vary widely. The head of the central bank's precious metals department, Sergei Kyshtymov, said last week that production in 1997 was likely to be no more than 100 tonnes, down 11 to 12 percent from 1996 levels.

Anatoly Chubais, Russia's other First Deputy Prime Minister, was quoted by Itar-Tass news agency on Tuesday as saying a presidential decree allowing the liberalisation of the gold market would be signed soon.

Plans to liberalise the heavily-centralised gold market were first announced by Chubais in April, and are expected to include a greater role for commercial banks in gold financing, purchasing and even exporting.

Proposals also include allowing individuals to buy gold directly from producers.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:28
George s. Cole gold stocks>(gold stocks):
Gold stocks up across the board today; not just XAU. Volume decent, but not huge. Encouraging action. If the gold sector begins a big run this month ( fifty-fifty chance now in my opinion ) , look for the overall market to peak in July.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:20
bw free trade:>(free trade:):
Good article on the politics of free trade on page a24 of todays wsj. The prices we are paying for goods produced by chineese political prisioners, children and other semi slave labor ( yes this may be but a component of the labor content of the incoming goods ) may seem cheap now but the long term cost may be more than we can afford. Free trade only works for a country if the people who lose their jobs to foreign competition can find other jobs equal to or better than the one lost. Its a sham to throw millions off welfare while at the same time shipping the jobs they could take to mexico and china. No doubt most in this country feel free trade benifits them, I did too at one time. When we enter the next economic down period the true cost of free trade may reveal itself.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:11
panda @>(@):
Is there a message here?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/z0009_44.html

and what about this?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/y0004_y00_7.html


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 12:47
D.A. re.loans>(re.loans):
Ted Butler:

Another market whose activity is exemplary of one where a large overhang is in the process of being drawn down is Zinc. If you look at a chart of LME stocks with respect to price you can see that the inventory drawdown had to go on for a very long while before the price began to move higher. Since I do not believe there is a large market in zinc loans this would seem to be an example where large drawdowns in inventory can occur without effect price. My guess is supply, demand and prices curves do not exhibit those nice monotonically increasing or decreasing functions as graphed in ones basic econ textbook. My guess is that if existing stockpiles are greater than some basic threshold level with respect to consumption, drawdowns in inventory may be accomplished coincidentally with declining price. This is probably largely a function of emotion in the sense that inventory holders see the value of their inventory declining and take steps to liquidate some of their holdings so as not to incur further losses. This process may feed back positively upon itself causing even greater price declines and more liquidation. Because the activities are taking place in commercial enterprises, the action is very slow, and can be drawn out over many, many moons. An outside observer may see the process taken to what are apparently absurd extremes. It takes someone from outside the commercial realm, the speculator, to transmit the changing fundamentals into price action, by bidding for a material amount of supply. At this point the price may rise very sharply. After the price has gone way up the commercial players then can understand what has happened, so they're habits change. As WW stated the news follows price. Nine months ago you could not find a single story about a potential supply problem in the PGM's. Now Panda pulls a few off the news wire every morning. All this even though there have been no material changes to the amount of new production or the amount of consumption.

As a side note, with the markets being so thin and spreads being so wide there are some amazing trades that are popping up. I'm trying to get some long dated hedges done now and hope to have more to report soon.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 12:34
ted butler semantics>(semantics):
Earl,

You asked the right question re: cash settlements. Default is the most obscene financial word of all. You will never, ever hear it mentioned except as in, there was no default, or there will be no default, or we know of no defaults. What you will hear instead is the delivery period was extended, there are no dealings in the lease market because of those damn Russians, and it has been decided that all contracts will now be settled in cash until the markets stabalize, or contract specifications have been adjusted. Are we all on the same page now?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 12:14
bw Re: gold leases>(Re: gold leases):
Ted Butler: Thanks for your work exposing this hustle. Having the details of this scam sure makes me feel better. In my opinion the complex gold lease mechanism was put in place not by accident or the market but by the same lovely people who have given us the worthless dollar and a financial system filled with worthless ious. After the run up of gold in the 1970's a plan had to be devised to prevent its reoccurrance. Once more our taxes have provided the resources used by those running the largest con game in the history of the world, to harm us.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 12:08
Gery Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox.at>(Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox.at):
REB: ( Trading range of gold ) . I believe we are pretty close to an outbreak. Today situation reminds me to early 1993 just before gold started this 25% bull-run ( hedge funds jumped to the long-side ) . The charts seem very clear: triangle, positive divergences in almost every indicator. It shouldn't take another two weeks. It's possible that the outbreak goes down ( under 339 ) but unlikely, I guess 80:20.
Regards


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 11:55
D.A. re.defaults>(re.defaults):
Earl:

In the case of the OTC metals markets there is no regulatory body to impose its will upon those with positions. There are individual contracts drawn up between the clearing houses and the buyers and the sellers. These contracts usually contain some clause with respect to defaulting but I don't know if there is any standard. I don't believe that there will be defaults in the PGM markets. There is after all a lot of metal being produced and there must be a clearing price. If Pa rises above the gold price for example, a great deal of the dental demand will dry up. If Pa were to get very high relative to Pl, I assume we would see some substitution in the auto industry. You may say well, how high would Pl have to go to get substitution? I don't know, but at some price the Japanese jewelry business would shut down. There is always a number at which people will sell. It may be a very big number, but a number none the less.



Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 11:36
SimpleMan faraway.com>(faraway.com):
Big Trader is right again. Chaos in London on delivery day!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 11:36
REB na>(na):
To Glenn, RJ, other traders: Any thoughts on what is keeping gold in such a narrow range?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 11:18
ted butler again leases>(again leases):
D.A.

Regarding your question on the size of the silver lease market. Boy, I wish I knew. My sense is that it is huge, based upon the published statistics and ancedotal evidence. As you have pointed out many times in the past, we are running a tremendous deficit in silver to the tune of hundreds of millions of ounces over many years. I look hard but I can't see this coming from voluntary inventory liquidation. The public may not be big buyers of silver or other metals, as metals, but I see zero evidence of net sales. Changes in inventory management can't account for it either. So I ask, where is the supply coming from to satisfy such staggering shortfalls with no change in price. If we are agreed it's happening in gold, it is reasonable to think it is happening in silver. Until two months or so ago I didn't know there even was a lease market in Pt and Pa. The point being these are not transactions done in the sunshine. Admittedly I am forced to infer some of these conclusions as far as size, but at least not to the actual existence of the market. In fact, I thought it quite interesting that the Treasury, in its brush-off response to my letter, acknowledged the existence of silver loans. And Bart lists the rate daily.

Last week I read a report that someone bought 50MM oz of silver from a lease transaction, and this weeks Barron's has a letter to the editor talking about a 50MM oz lease transaction in 1995. I guess if the facts and numbers were beyond question we wouldn't have much to talk about, or analysis or markets in general, I thought the amounts were not significant at first, but I don't think so anymore. And there's no way some CB is ever going to raise their hand and say, Hey, we just got screwed and lost our metal to the city slickers, at least not the guys who actually made the loans.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 11:04
Don dprys@alliance.net>(dprys@alliance.net):
Cherokee: Could you please send me the source of a quote you posted some time ago which ended lemmings all, lemmings all. Thanks


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 10:58
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Ted Butler: I recall some talk of cash settlement in other markets. SP 500 .... Is it possible for metal markets in delivery stress to declare some form of cash settlement? I realize that does not help fabricators out of their physical need but it should be apparent to all that end users are no longer a major source of concern in metal markets. The focus of concern seems to have been captured by speculators who stand to lose bigtime.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 10:54
Tortfeasor Message for Crystal>(Message for Crystal):
Crystal Ball, your message unfortunately rings true in my case and I was in front of that broker in the line to get on the bus. Looks like silver is showing signs its tired of sleepwalking and wants to get back in bed.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 10:47
D.A. loan.leverage>(loan.leverage):
Ted Butler:

Your musings about the outstanding metal loans are appreciated. There is no doubt that in the event of a real shortage ( like when the cupboard is bare ) that these shorts would add a great deal of fuel to the fire. While I have seen estimates of the amount of gold out on loan I have never seen anyone take a stab at silver. In your investigations have you ever come across a number?



Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 10:46
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
bw @9:04: History is on your side.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 10:34
Arctic Spirit spirit@internorth.com>(spirit@internorth.com):
Checked out the cap, yet? Funny thing is ... brokers so far,
are probably the biggest customer group for the caps.

And, no, we do not carry coins/salt shakers. Just caps and T-shirts.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 10:08
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Panda:

In the winter time we bring the brass monkey indoors.

TTFN


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 10:00
panda @random.thoughts>(@random.thoughts):
Ted Butler -- As part of the gold confiscation during the thirties, weren't gold loans also made illegal? In other words, loans were to be repaid in cash, not gold coinage. My question is, aren't these metal loans in effect 'gold' loans? If so, aren't they illegal? If they settle in cash, then the loaning of the metal is a fiction, no? If they settle in 'bullion', then they are illegal, per FDRs executive orders. None the less, I agree whole heartedly, that there is one hell of a problem looming! PA/PL are only harbingers of what may be coming in the near future.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:52
Lan Man Leveraged to the Max>(Leveraged to the Max):
Steve Puetz: re Real Estate prices - In theory I agree with Davidson/Mogg that R.E. prices will be heading down, although not to the extreme of 10c on the dollar. In talking to my friends and associates, the vast majority are leveraged to the hilt, having paid less than 10% down ( most around 5% ) and are living on their credit cards to meet everyday expenses. Several have told me directly that if things get much worse, they will default on the loans, max out the credit cards and declare the big B.

Being debt free at this time, am waiting patiently for the debt pyramid to topple over where I can then scoop up the bargains of a lifetime. Living in So. Calif. where housing prices are still overpriced by at least 50%, it will probably take some time before housing is again fair valued.

Just yesterday heard on the radio of an outfit offering loans on your property with NO equity needed! They state that they will loan up to 100% of the value of your house. Anybody got a lite? ( match or Bic lighter will do just fine ) .

Pass on my thanks to your wife for responding so quickly to the e-mail regarding the order of your book...


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:49
ted butler lease thoughts>(lease thoughts):
Vieserre:

Thank you for your important contribution ( 23:11 ) to the leasing debate. I agree with you that the past and current benefits to the participants ( CB's, dealers, mining cos, users and speculators ) has been great - that's why they have grown to such significance in the market. Where we obviously disagree is in what adverse effect these leases have had/will have on the metal markets. I think the questions of who is being deceived and who is assuming the real risk in these transactions will be answered in time, although I did find it curious that not once in your posting did you mention the central banks, who along with other government lenders, are the prime real lenders of the metal, not the dealers. It would be a pretty boring debate if it were limited to who might be the bagholder ( s ) , and the choice was limited to dealers, CB's and/or mining cos.

I don't think it productive to answer your disagreement point by point ( although if you want I will ) , but allow me to observe my main problems with these metal loans;

1.Every time a loan is originated, physical metal is released. This is no bookeeping entry - actual metal goes to market. This has to influence price and the real supply/demand equation.

2.There has never been a net repayment of metal loans in their 15 year existence. While individual loans may have been paid back from time time ( maybe ) , the total outstanding amount of metal loans has only grown ( along with growing amounts of metal being dumped on the market ) . This means that we have never had to experience what it's like to observe market conditions when metal loans are repaid, and metal is taken from the market. I do think we started to see this in PL/PA when prices exploded and lease rates ( which were 1-2% for years ) jumped as high as 300%. A reasonable person would see or sense a connection. What is more interesting were reports that the the lease market just shut down and cash transactions were automatically extended.

3.The real problem with these loans is that they are the only class of loan, in existence, that are denominated in something other than currency or paper securities. Think about that for a moment. No other type of loan in the world calls for settlement in something which is finite in its existence. All other types of loans call for repayment in some type of paper which in an emergency, or run on the bank, can be created out of thin air. But you can't do that in the metals. In fact, because of the supply demand deficit in each of the precious metals, the supply is not even finite, it is shrinking, by definition. And against this shrinking supply base, we have growing repayment obligations. This is why the lease market in Pa ( and probably Pt ) shut down at the first sign of repayment demands. And why it has to happen in gold and silver. The only question being when. It is impossible for these metal loans to be repaid as called for.





Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:40
panda @summertime!>(@summertime!):
Front -- I heard that story in the news last night. What do you folks do in the winter time? :- ) )

SA coal/gold mines start wage negotiations on Friday with the unions. The unions are reported to be looking for a twenty percent increase. Inflation running at %9+. More at;

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/y0023_z00_13.html


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:33
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

All:

I might as well be the first to post it here....

ONTARIO has had a court ruling that it's legal for women to go topless outdoors anywhere in public. Some women in Toronto and Ottawa have already made the news and it hit CNBC last night. ( boy was Sue embarrased! ) Anyways, it's legal. The only problem I have is that the girl who showed up on TV last night while washing windows topless, had a spiked dog collar around her neck. Geez, I think I'd be looking out more for that than anything else! That could hurt !!!!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:31
CrystalBall StockMarket_Puts@EatingDust>(StockMarket_Puts@EatingDust):
Tort- This one's for you...
In a long line of people waiting for a bank teller, one guy suddenly started massaging the back of the person in front of him. Surprised, the man in front turned and snarled, Just what the hell you are doing?
Well, said the guy, you see, I'm a chiropractor and I could see that you were tense, so I had to massage your back. Sometimes I just can't help practicing my art!
That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard! the guy replied. Look, I'm a broker. Am I f&$#*ing the guy in front of me?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:26
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

RJ:

Purchasing power of $327 ( 1977 dollars adjusted at 4% per anum ) : $716. Where did the other $389 go?

Correct me if I'm wrong please, but I believe you're saying that the power of $327 adjusted at 4% inflation from 1977 would now be $716. In other words, the price for an item in 1977 being $327 that same item should now cost $716. I think I've got that right and agree.

If that follows, logic would say that if that item was gold ( oz. ) , then gold did not keep it's value since it should now be at $716 if it kept up with inflation over the years. If gold had moved in a straight line like inflation did, I would have to agree.

Perhaps we might back up just a second. Did not Gold a one point in time go over $800? Perhaps that was all the catch-up in one swoop? Obviously, if we had sold when it was at it's top, your argument would have folded rather quickly as we would have achieved a 10.5% increase in value even over inflated price levels. I agree that that was one day only, however it did happen and cannot be ignored by averaging. So if we missed that cycle, perhaps for the next cycle, we will be better positioned to sell to our advantage and catch-up again, all in one swoop?

Gold has moved in much larger cycle swoops than the dollar over the same time period.

You see my problem? You've taken the average of a very large cyclical moving target and compared it to a very steady definitive inflation movement. If you want your argument to be justified then you , IMHO, must compare apples to apples. If you want your arguments to stand the tests, then take the average of the moving target of inflation on the dollar as well. That would make it $521.50.

Nothing personal, I assure you. You did ask for someone to refute your numbers and I believe that now has been done. I also think you have compared apples and oranges, to your arguments advantage.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:24
Roebear @backfromwaterworld>(@backfromwaterworld):
Just catching up on the news Kitco after some boating with family ( Ted and Front inspired me to hit the water again ) . Excellent contributions. Vieserre, Earl, Ted Butler I'm trying to understand leasing/forward sales do any of you have any books, resources you could recommend? Mike Sheller, loved that segmentation of time idea; we must keep exploring, where no Goldbug has gone before!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:24
George S. Cole market makers>(market makers):
From the World Gold Council. Comments?



In the London bullion market, Phibro has followed the recent example of
Lehman Brothers by withdrawing from market making, although the
former apparently intends to remain active in bullion. This reduces the
number of market makers in London to twelve. Finally, on June 4, Peter
Fava of Midland Bank was elected chairman of the London Bullion
Market Association, succeeding Alan Baker of Deutsche Morgan
Grenfell.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:04
bw us currency:>(us currency:):
This piece of paper is a strange creature. Once a receipt for something of value ( gold and silver ) it now is neither receipt nor debt. A worthless scrap of paper that others will ( for now ) accept and pay value for. The us treasury says there is about 500 billion worth here in the usa and less than one trillion world-wide. This world-wide figure is surely vastly understated. I have seen estimates of up to six and a half trillion. The us dollar is printed here and also at least in iran. Once a stable form we seem to be getting a new dollar every other year. Yet another change is coming as the onshore/offshore dollars. We have a real problem with the offshore printing presses.They may even provide the crisis which requires electronic cash as its solution. With the dollar you can be sure of only one thing. The dollar's value will one day equal that of all ( not a single exception and there have been thousands ) other currencies which have been stripped of their backing. Zero.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:03
panda @Dollars.Yen.?>(@Dollars.Yen.?):
Cry havoc and loose the dogs of currency war!

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970611/business/stories/dollar_18.html


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:54
News @>(@):

True story: Disabled Barbie can't fit into her $100
Doll House! What next? Lawyer Barbie to sue Matel?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:48
Roebear @refugeetales>(@refugeetales):
arden and all: re arden 23:12 post, after the fall of Vietnam I knew certain folks who were present when the Vietnamese refugees were kept at military installations etc. awaiting US sponsors. Some of these folks were carrying so much gold sewn into their clothes/baggage they could barely walk. The US gov't was happy to exchange our dollars for their gold. A bank brought in a mobile branch, armored car etc. The highest amount of gold turned in was $180,000 ( and this was at 1975-76 prices! ) . I do not know if they were allowed to keep any gold or if they did. I do not believe the fact of this refugee gold was ever published but was young at the time and may have missed it. All of the refugees that I ever met were industrious, decent folks who took to US economy like fish to water, many are now prosperous in business. I wonder if any are now goldbugs?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:42
Speed leaving for work>(leaving for work):
Mike Sheller: Well said. I was trying to formulate something along the lines of time segments for both RJ and Fundy, but will now wait for responses to your post.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:42
EMU Salting Crew North Pole>(North Pole):

Kohl's governing coalition fracturing. May not last
out the year. Watch Germany


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:35
Mike Sheller Meta Musings>(Meta Musings):
RJ: In a more serious vein, there is a phenomenon I would like to call segmentation of time which might prove a fruitful way to view markets and human action. So, for instance, there are indeed some general things one can say about gold, or stocks, or bonds, etc, that apply quite nicely within certain segments of time. From 1972 to 1980, certain old saws concerning gold could have been repeated with little refutation. However, those obsessed with such stereotypes in the early 70's did far better as gold investors than those latecomers who mouthed such platitudes only in 1980. By the same token, since '82 those who believed the stock market could only rise, and that shares returned 10% and more like the rising Sun, did quite nicely. Those who have just now caught on to this old saw might be in for a surprise if and when a new time segment paradigm emerges. The correction in gold since '80 bears out your arguments for this time segment. No question. Even the most diehard gold aficionado must acknowledge there is a time and a price for everything, including gold. I think what we must glean from all this is that perhaps, just perhaps, we are at a juncture where a new time segment and paradigm shift in the investment world may be emerging. I realize that sometimes those who are noty sufficiently detached can argue that NOW is ALWAYS the moment that things will turn. This is human nature. Discounting that, however, it would not be surprising to conclude that the marvelous stockmarket spectacle we have been witnessing has given many gold accolytes support for the thought that a significant asset inversion, or re-evaluation, may be close at hand. One could not blame them, looking at a chart of the Dow. It has been my observation that these things unfold over a number of years, and since we are talking about a theoretical approaching time segment that itself could last a decade or two, we must endure the slow-motion gathering of forces that will exteriorize the as yet internalized future seen by the more prescient among the goldbugs and prophets of doom. I myself, while open to the most outrageous possible scenarios, realize that life usually goes on in spite of our occasional misteps and blunders. I hope only for prosperity, peace, and joy. But I look over my shoulder when I hear ( in ) human cannonballs rolling by.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:31
TED @bye>(@bye):
Mooney: Get a life...and yer late fer work....again!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:29
TED @chainsawin>(@chainsawin):
Tort: It ain't here yet as Iez in a mad rush fer the woods fer me last day of chainsawin before the blackflies go BESERK...Warm weather finally here ( 67 F and climbing ) and those vicious little bastards are just learnin how ta bite...Panda: HAHAHA....Kill one of those Harvard-yard air-heads fer me....


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:27
panda @>(@):
I know how to 'save' gold ( from itself, that is! ) ! Everybody buy the S&P500 until it goes to infinity ( or pretty close to it ) , then gold will be so cheap, everybody will just have to buy it. They'll buy it, if for no other reason, to put in their dessert! :- ) )

I can see it now, I'd like a chocolate ice cream cone with gold jimmies please. Think of the possibilites! And what if we used platinum jimmies instead of gold jimmies!!! Think of it! :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:18
Mooney @Ted>(@Ted):
Morning Ted! Going to Work Now, Ted! C U L8R


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 07:59
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
RJ - Your repeated comments of the last few days that Gold has been a lousy investment for the last twenty years, ( EG. - Your 00:13 ...Average price of gold for the last 20 years: $327. Purchasing power of $327 ( 1977 dollars adjusted at 4% per anum ) : $716. Where did the other $389 go...? ) , seems to me to be just backing up what many here are saying, and that is that Gold is at the bottom of a cycle right now and is UNDERVALUED at the present time. That's what you're saying in a nutshell if you really think about it.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 07:42
panda @Hot?>(@Hot?):
TED -- You can have the heat! One warm evening ( ~68 F ) and people are already driving like idiots! Somehow there is a germ of an idea here. If I could only 'infect' the gold market with such madness. Perhaps a heatwave in the metals markets Hmmmm, I'll have to think about that one...


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 07:30
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn):
From the looks of the gold market and options which decrease in value every day if there is not movement that a joke is in order. Morning, Ted, something just dropped in your fishpond.

A man and his date walk into a very posh Rodeo Drive furrier after
having eaten a very expensive lunch at one of Beverly Hills most
exclusive restaurants.

Show the lady your finest mink! the fellow exclaims.

So the owner of the shop goes in back and comes out with an absolutely
gorgeous full-length coat. As the lady tries it on, the furrier sidles up to
the guy and discreetly whispers, Ah, sir, that particular fur goes for
$65,000.

No problem! I'll write you a check!

Very good, sir. says the shop owner. Today is Saturday. You may
come by on Monday to pick it up, after the check has cleared the bank.

So the man and the woman leave. On Monday, the fellow returns. The
store owner is outraged: How dare you show your face in here?! There
wasn't a single penny in your checking account!!

I just had to come by, grinned the guy,

to thank you for the most wonderful weekend of my life!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 07:23
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Panda ( 6:50 ) Sounds like more Russian incompetance....Looks like ya got a heat wave in Beantown...send it up this way!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 07:22
George S. Cole August gold>(August gold):
August gold down 60 cents despite drop in dollar/yen. Looks like things will get a little darker before the dawn.



Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 07:10
Reify @my 2 cents>(@my 2 cents):
RJ- Been reading your replies to a lot of various questions, and comments addressed to you, and would like to make the following point.

Most of us, I believe, see gold not as a trading vehicle, but an investment for, and in the future, one that could survive possible calamities, in the stock markets, which appear to be substantially over-valued.

There are other possiblities, but gold and precious metals seem, at this time in history, to be undervalued and from a chartist standpoint being accumulated. Quoting- Accumulation of paper today to trade for the commodities of the day and the invest for
the future is the wisest way to protect oneself. Hope you don't feel this was taken out of context, as it was only a part of what you said. However what would you recommend as a better long range future investment at this time, than precious metals, in various forms of investment?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 07:10
Political Question @>(@):

Have the Republicans painted themselves into a
corner again over this disaster relief bill? Looks
like another big win for Clinton. ( Ignore that
obnoxious shouter )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 07:06
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- Your argument that the last twenty years has been pretty dismal for investing in gold is pretty good. The numbers show that. No problem. On the other hand, one can look at it as no more than buying insurance. Hey, maybe the CBs etc. can hold down the price of gold for the rest of the year. Then again, maybe a bit of 'paper' can't get unwound fast enough. My statement that I do not trust you simply means that you might have me, or others, shorting the metal just when things 'get interesting'. Sorry, but these are interesting times and the next twenty years are not going to look like the last twenty years. It could also be that the next two months could be interesting. Time will tell. As for name calling, that's what the government and their media lackeys do. I certainly wouldn't like one of those labels doesn't get attached to you.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 06:50
panda @>(@):
This mornings PL/PA news stories?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/z0009_17.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/y0023_z00_6.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/z0009_35.html


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 06:45
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold down .30 and Silver up a cent; Dollar continues to weaken versus the Yen down 1.14 ( 1.18% ) @ 111.23...Nikkei down 242 ( 1.18% ) and Japan's current acount surplus up over 90%....


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 06:16
Mike Sheller Anecdotally speaking>(Anecdotally speaking):
RJ: Did you hear the one about gold being so malleable ( how malleable IS it? ) that an ounce of it can be spun into a wire three miles ( or is it thirty miles? ) long! Or can be hammered so thin ( like the current market ) that you can read thru it? Shirley you've heard that. Doubtless one can unearth stories of refugees pulling themselves out of disintegrating cultures by the thread of a spun gold ounce, while inconspicuously hiding behind a newspaper that they were reading thru a severely beaten ounce of gold. Just try that trick with aluminum and see where it gets you. Also, gold CAN be eaten. Witness its use as a leafed decoration on cakes and pastries at the end stages of civilzations and indulgent societies. Silver bullets have been used in Romania since the 1930's Universal International werewolf movies to kill all sorts of hirsute man-beasts. Sort of like the folks who try to take your gold or .999 potatoes away during those occasional ( and pesky ) societal apocalypses. And as for suits, well, I don't much wear them except for important client meetings, etc, which don't seem to be so important as the years go by. It's the women who are lucky. They can wear gold lame' ( pronounced la-may ( ( can't find my accent here ) . Men can't get away with wearing their Au as clothing per se, without someone shouting Ey-You! ( cept maybe on Fire Island ) . Also, did you ever notice that a one ounce Kruggerrand ( is that 1 G and 2 R's or what? ) is remarkably like a quarter, and will fit nicely in the slot at the laundry when you're low on change. So gold keeps your clothes clean as well. I used to fool the bus drivers in Manhattan with one ounce mapleleafs when they thought I was actually putting subway tokens in the change hopper. Gold gets you where you want to go. No, sir, I think this argument proves beyond a doubt that gold is indeed the only thing one needs to own. Come to think of it, it might even make a wonderful investment vehicle some day.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 05:01
Goldbug23 @Ingot>(@Ingot):
Earl: You comment June 10 23:26 sums up the Great Debate very nicely. RJ's well spoken and his points should certainly be considered, but he isn't really interested in debating.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 04:05
THE HUMAN CANNONBALL BOOM!>(BOOM!):

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I WILL BE AN
INFREQUENT POSTER HERE!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 04:05
THE HUMAN CANNONBALL BOOM!>(BOOM!):

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I WILL BE AN
INFREQUENT POSTER HERE!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 04:03
THE HUMAN CANNONBALL BOOM!>(BOOM!):

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I PROMISE I
WILL BE AN INFREQENT POSTER HERE!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 04:03
THE HUMAN CANNONBALL BOOM!>(BOOM!):

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I PROMISE I
WILL BE AN INFREQENT POSTER HERE!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 04:03
THE HUMAN CANNONBALL BOOM!>(BOOM!):

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I PROMISE I
WILL BE AN INFREQENT POSTER HERE!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 04:03
THE HUMAN CANNONBALL BOOM!>(BOOM!):

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I PROMISE I
WILL BE AN INFREQENT POSTER HERE!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 04:03
THE HUMAN CANNONBALL BOOM!>(BOOM!):

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I PROMISE I
WILL BE AN INFREQENT POSTER HERE!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 03:36
Auric To Mr. Cannonball>(To Mr. Cannonball):

A fool and his money are soon parted.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 03:24
THE HUMAN CANONNBALL BOOM!>(BOOM!):

HOWDY! THIS A MEMBERS ONLY DEAL OR CAN ANYBODY POST?
SORRY IF I SHOUT BUT THATS LIFE IN THE TRADING PITS!
BESIDES, IF I'M TOO LOUD, TURN DOWN YOUR HEARING
AID! I THINK I'LL TRY MY HAND AT THIS GOLD THINGY!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 02:59
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
Squinch: I see the support you are talking about. I don't know have any
idea if we'll bounce off it or not.

FYI - In Japan today - PA's out months closed up today, while the june
contract closed down. This is the first day I can remember where that's
happened in the last three months. Maybe the market is starting to see
the light and the light isn't shinning on $150 palladium!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 02:39
Jack Any old refiners up North>(Any old refiners up North):

Arctic Spirit: What's the verdict, on the coins, the salt
shakers?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 02:38
Auric Ready>(Ready):

Earl-Agreed. It's been like watching paint dry,
this market, eh?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 02:33
Mr. Conductor Thomas The Tank Engine>(Thomas The Tank Engine):

Any Shining Times Station fans out there? There is
SOMETHING about this Kitco place!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 02:27
Arctic Spirit spirit@internorth.com>(spirit@internorth.com):
We are having a lot of fun with this stuff. Reaction is great.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 02:14
Jack Auric>(Auric):

Auric: ( 01:30 ) According to Pomboy Capital Corp's,

OPEN LETTER TO CENTRAL BANKERS, GOLD MINING COMPANIES
AND GOLD INVESTORS:

As published on page 23 of the FINANCIAL TIMES of 6/9/97
gold should be around $500 now.

They are not goldbugs.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 01:54
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Auric: We're in basic agreement, you and me.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 01:32
Jack OLD TALES>(OLD TALES):

RJ: ( 01:01 ) I agree, some of those stories even turn a
gold believer off. Especially the one about all the gold
ever mined fitting into a cube of A' x B' x C'. You
should read Pedro's ( of 6/10 ) for good info. Actually
my own feeling is that with credit, credit cards and the
share markets etc________etc,they are trying to stuff one
tonne of bullshit in a five pound bag. BOOM, Think about
it.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 01:30
Auric Why Not?>(Why Not?):

RJ: One ounce of Gold to an agreed upon charity says
Gold gets to $500 between now and !2-31-99. You on?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 01:25
Squinch testola>(testola):
does anyone else expect SI7N to test 468.8 tomorrow before heading up?


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 01:08
Palladium here>(here):

Hi. There is no shortage of me. I can be bought.
As much as you want. Ahhh but the price. That is
the question, lad.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 01:01
RJ How's this for Hostility?>(How's this for Hostility?):
Me thinks there are many ruffled feathers here. Does anyone think I didnít know the group I was addressing? It is precisely that you are who you are, that I came here to say what I have said. I offer my arguments with respect for the receiver. Once again, for those who have not read some of my priors; I own gold. I also own platinum and silver. I make my living in these markets. I am well protected. Do not ascribe to me that which you do not know nor have I told.

Slick - my apology was obviously not accepted. Do I note real hostility there? Pardon me if Iíve heard the Ďwheelbarrow-o-cash for a loaf of breadí just once more that the Ďounce-o-gold for a suití story. I would appreciate new arguments. I think anyone familiar with these markets has heard those same arguments time and time again. Is there nothing more you can offer? I admit my response was overblown, but let me pose a question to all: Is there not great discussion here of puts and calls and contracts and mining stocks? Are all proceeds of these used to buy metals? Is none traded for the needs of the day? Do none of you have jobs? If we are to have a proper discourse, it is time that some of you get down off the soapbox and speak face to face When those who profess to loath paper stop their paper pursuits, then they might occupy a slightly higher moral ground. Please, no more postings of how I do not understand. I understand all too well and have thought these issues with great care. I must say again, platitudes and anecdotes are shortcuts to actually having to think! Next time one pops in your head ( the nonspecific collective head so as not to offend anyone in particular ) , ask yourself the next question it raises. If you do not, Shirley I will. I know, donít call you surely


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 00:57
Auric Sorting It Out>(Sorting It Out):

Earl @ 00:38-Spot on! ( If you will excuse a
metaphor ) . The same paper imbalances present in the
Platinum and Palladium markets are lurking in Gold
and Silver as well.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 00:44
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Arden @23:12: While we dance with a whirlwind, you draw a sword and cut to the quick!


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 00:38
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Vieserre: In scholarly fashion, I think you have narrowly framed the substance of your argument to address the concerns of lessor and lessee, at the expense of the more important element, which is the market itself.

If 'A' sells a naked short to 'B' who in turn is committed to lease to 'C', is this not a distortion of the normal commercial event? That is, a visible transaction has taken place but no physical has changed hands. As long as the level of such activity remains within the limits of product availability in the cash market ( assuming stable supply/demand ) , 'A' should be able to cover his short without disruption. The price mechanism would still function via the cash market.

If on the other hand, naked speculation rises beyond a prudent level and cash supplies are found thin at such a time that demand is increased or supply suddenly disrupted ( ie, PA from Russia ) , the imprudent speculation will have to be considered as causative agent in market dislocation. For if rampant speculation had not taken place, price would have been better able to more smoothly reflect actual market conditions and balance the equation. Which is where PA/PL are currently.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 00:36
Mental Police @ everywhere>(@ everywhere):

RJ: Is that you VRONSKY? hmmmm


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 00:35
BIG TRADER @Delivery Day>(@Delivery Day):

Watch London. Uplink terminated.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 00:18
Auric Go For The Gold>(Go For The Gold):

Earl @ 00:05-My understanding of Ted Butler's
argument is this: There is a huge paper surplus in
gold which must be addressed. It means that it's
going to create a massive imbalance between physical
gold availability and paper demand. The result is
that valuation in terms of paper- be it Dollars,
EMU's Yen, etc.,- will rise.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 00:13
RJ One more for the Gipper>(One more for the Gipper):
Arden - I, unlike many others here, have very little emotional investment in gold. Free of this reason clouding attachment, my assessment goldís merits and shortfalls rests in facts not supposition. By no means am I trying to say that your arguments are biased in this way, but some that I have read are. Let me answer your main points:

Distribution of gold reserves; name a continent in which gold cannot be found? Regarding the central banks, they have a very real interest in the price of gold; precisely never too far above $400. As for the banks trying to convince us that gold has no value, since when? Central banks are the largest holders of gold on earth, and as such have a more vested interest in gold than any other can claim. Since when do CBs want gold to be worthless? Their goal is a stable price of gold, as this gives the appearance of stable currency. Note I said appearanceí, I do understand the game. Why else would one CB or another step in and cap off any significant rally over $400. Last time it was Belgium with over 200 metric tons.

To answer all offers of proof as to goldís value in times of crisis or for refugees. I agree completely This agreement carries the proviso that there must be a place for one to go where gold is valued above the goods and commodities it may be traded for. Were I a third world citizen, all my wealth would be in gold, but the global collapse that some here envision will make all men equal. I say again, if the western world falls, the entire world falls. I for one do not believe in the decline of the western world, which I will discuss in depth later, so please donít blast me with the arguments now until you read what I have to say.

The main focus of my argument is that gold, as an investment vehicle, store of wealth, and preserver of value, has performed dismally in the last 20 years. Let me turn the numbers around. Average price of gold for the last 20 years: $327. Purchasing power of $327 ( 1977 dollars adjusted at 4% per anum ) : $716. Where did the other $389 go? This seems like a very expensive store of wealth. I again ask anyone to refute the numbers. Is my calculator part of the Alan G & the CBs conspiracy? More likely, it is a sleeper in the Japanese takeover, it is a Casio after all.


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 00:05
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Auric: Perhaps it's a misunderstanding ( on my part ) of their respective positions. BUt the sense I have of the matter is this: RJ believes gold is going down. For many reasons, previously stated. Ted, believes the same unless underlying forces, which he has identified, are mitigated. ... I'm an agnostic but I'll tell neither one that. ...... ( :- ) )


Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 00:01
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore):
Worthwhile article in this week's Barron's, page 22.
Sidestepping a Bre-X may save a life or two. Not to mention
a shirt.



Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 23:53
Auric High Noon>(High Noon):

Earl @ 23:36- Ted Butler and RJ cannot both be
right. The facts will prove one to be correct.
Personally, I go with the Butler scenario. I say
that by the year 2000, and very likely sooner, we
will find out.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 23:43
Byron @ Bedtime Reading:>(@ Bedtime Reading:):
Just ran across this URL on the web. Titled Mining Scams. Have not read it all. Don't know if it has been posted here before. http://www.state.nv.us/busi_industry/mineral/fraud.htm


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 23:36
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Auric: With reference to your debate comment; I don't think there is a basis for debate between those two points of view. RJ, is a trader and drawing conclusions from the here and now. Trading the right hand edge of the chart as Oldman once phrased it. Ain't nothin' wrong with it.

Ted Butler, on the other hand has wondered why that chart has looked so crummy for so long. Especially in light of elementary things like supply and demand which should be at least mildly positive for gold. He has continued from there and found evidence that, yes indeed, whether by the hand of dark mysterious forces or the simple overextension of a paper cycle gone mad, the newly minted mechanisms of leasing, forward sales, derivative instruments and host of other scams, have produced serious distortions in the markets for these commodities. The essential function of a market is to produce signals related to supply and demand. His contention is that non market elements are hampering the ability of the PM markets to perform their primary function. He also believes, if the present situation is allowed to persist, these markets will rapidly reach total disfunction. As pointed out in his latest at Gold Eagle, PL/PA are almost there and gold and silver will likely follow. .... Sorry for the verbosity.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 23:36
Steve Puetz @>(@):
Good-night Panda -- The credit-card alchemist!!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 23:26
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70hr.gif


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 23:21
Byron @ Hoping For Short Sleeves:>(@ Hoping For Short Sleeves:):
NJ Don't have my charts in front of me here at the library but if I remember correctly, the last bounce by the XAU up to 108 from 91? was during the time the dollar sold off against the yen. Remember the yen was at 127? and fell sharply to 112? had a bounce and now appears to again be strengthening against the dollar. Seems that as goes the $ so goes Gold. ( at least recently ) .


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 23:17
RJ That's all for tonight>(That's all for tonight):
Preacher - Those guys are dead? As for your astute comment about the 20th largest cities in twenty years, I agree with you entirely. I will address this in more depth in my upcoming treatment on gold for the rest of 1997..............


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 23:15
Auric Byte the Bullet>(Byte the Bullet):

Panda: Hell. Just hold off payments on them credit
cards until January, 2000. The Y2K bug will erase
it!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 23:13
NJ dollar>(dollar):
Byron : a curency crisis is on the short list of triggers that can spark a rally in gold. us economy gained handsomely on the devaluation of the dollar. with others now emulating, one wonders what are rubinspan's contingency plans to stay ahead of the pack. i am sure they have a trick or two up their sleeves.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 23:12
arden ardengold@msn.com>(ardengold@msn.com):
RJ - your comments on gold have forced me to respond. As a geologist, let me assure you that gold is not easily attainable, nor found, nor evenly distribruted. You sound as if you are speaking for Alan G. and the Central Banks to convince us that gold has no value! I would like to point out two personal experiences from people who left different countries. I had friends who left both Viet Nam and Mozambique, both took only GOLD with them, as their 'store of value'. What you fail to factor into your thinking is that the world population is increasing much faster than the available gold supplies, thus on a personal basis each individual on this planet has less gold available to them. Is gold worth anything? Some people seem to think so. Inflation is a new idea? Would you like to buy some tulip bulbs?


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 23:11
Vieserre Leases and Their Affect>(Leases and Their Affect):
Ted Butler's well-written article suggests that by leasing metal, a lessor is deceived or harmed, the practice is detrimental, and it is a primary cause for the sharp increase in the price of the PGMS. This view apprears to be universally accepted in this forum. However, I fail to see the logic. Therefore, I wish to state my reasons for your consideration in the hope that if I am wrong I may be enlightened by a corrective response.

THE LESSOR IS CERTINLY NOT DECEIVED: The Lessor, usually a dealer in the metals, should know market conditions and risks as well if not better than the Lessee. The lessor knows or should know that the lessee has obtained the lease for the purpose of selling the metal and investing the proceeds for a period of the lease. And, as the lease is a legal transfer of a property right subject to restrictive conditions, if the lessor does not want the lessee to sell the metal, he could be so specify in the Lease. Thus there is no deception and the lessor is in control of the consequences of the lease as well as the sale of the metal.

THE LESSOR BENEFITS BY THE LEASE AND HAS LIMITED RISK. The lessor enters into the lease presumably to gain income on a commodity held for investment or inventory. If the metal is not returned he has the choice of buying the metal himself or, if he prefers, obtaining equivalent damages, and charging the lessee for the cost plus the lease rate. His risk may be minimized by assuring that at the time the lease is entered into, the lessee has the financial wherewithal to pay damages if the metal is not returned. The above assumes that the lessor has not entered into a naked lease where he merely transfers a right under the lease rather than the metal itself. In such a case, when he leases out more metal than he has in possession, he acts as a speculator and assumes major risk as well as allegations of fraud.

THE LESSEE ASSUMES THE MAJOR RISK. He benefits if he can reinvest the proceeds of the sale of the leased metal at a higher rate of return than the lease rate, prior to the termination of the lease or any extension thereof. He assumes the risk of repurchase and any change in metal price between the buy and sell dates.

THE LEASE DOES NOT CHANGE NET SUPPLY/DEMAND RATIO FOR THE METAL. Since the lease is merely a transfer of possession, it is only when the metal is sold by the lessee that supply is affected but this does not in anyway affect net supply and demand as once the metal is sold there is an immediate offsetting latent demand for repurchase.

THE LEASE WILL AFFECT PRICE ONLY ON A TEMPORARY BASIS. If net supply and demand is not affected, then the only effect a lease has on the price of the metal is at the time the metal is offered for sale, which will temporarily increase supply and reduce demand, and subsequently when it is bid for repurchase by the lessee at the term of the lease, which will increase demand and reduce supply. Moreover, once a number of such lease arrangements have been in the marketplace for a period of time, the effect on price of any lease transactions will be dependent on whether the amount of such leases are increasing in number, thus adding to supply, or decreasing in number, thus increasing demand. But in a period allowed for any particular lease transaction ( s ) to net out, the should not materially affect price since they have not altered net supply or demand over this period.

THE LEASE PRACTICE IS NOT NECESSARILY DETRIMENTAL TO THE MARKET. The lease promotes investment in above ground inventory by a lessor dealer, which may act as a cushion for vagaries in producer supply and industry demand, by enabling the dealer to obtain income on the inventory. The advantages of having this inventory available is borne out by the current large demand for it in the marketplace.

THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE INCREASE IN THE PRICE OF PLATINUM IS DUE TO SHORTAGE RESULTING FROM REDUCTION OF PRODUCER SUPPLY AND FUND HOARDING, NOT LEASE TRANSACTIONS. There is much made of the
repurchase of metal under the leases as being the cause for the sharp increase in price.
However, there is no assurance that the high lease rates currently in force are solely or
primarily due to settling out of prior leases. A fortiori, even if this is true, it is arguable
that any outstanding leases have helped reduce the price rather than adding to it since
theses leases have added to supply rather than withdrawing from it.



Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 23:10
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Mike Sheller: Hey, Amigo. I don't know about you but I ain't got no 80 years left to hang around waitin' for that peak. Would it be too much trouble for you, to practice a little astrological legerdemain and revise ( as in speed up ) that forecast just a skoshi bit? .... I'm sure we'd all 'preciate it. ........ ( :- ) )


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 23:06
Mike Sheller S&P? I remember that.>(S&P? I remember that.):
APH: Sorry about that...didn't catch the thread.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 23:04
slick goldbug@windycity>(goldbug@windycity):
JR no offense taken since, I expected such a response from you.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 23:03
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
APH: Since I'm not an ewaver, I guess I'm a little surprised by your numbers. SP @ 480 would seem imply a Dow at about 4200? Eh? .... 80% of all the mutual fund money ever, since beginning of time, is in the market above Dow 4500. That should serve some to pause and reflect. ....The final top around '03? If there is enough cash about, to start over from the 4000 area.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 22:59
panda @eureka!>(@eureka!):
That's it Steve! I'll max out all of my plastic, buy as much gold and platinum as I can on the cards, and then declare bankruptcy! Yes! The 'system' can be beaten! All that I have to do, is make sure that there is no reference to what I bought on the receipts. Yes, I have literally turned plastic in to gold! The old alchemists had it wrong! It's not lead, but plastic! How could they have known, there was no plastic back then. :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) ) Maybe that's why they call them 'gold' cards, eh!

On that note, ( gave my great investment idea away! ) , I'll say goodnight before they come to take me away! BTW, Dollar sinking good tonight, 111.22 last I looked. AG, RR, hurry up with those new fangled fifties, I want to buy some Yen before it's too late! ;- ) )


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 22:58
TED @midnight>(@midnight):
Goodnight everyone....you too Tarnished!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 22:57
Auric Addendum>(Addendum):

When I said real debate, I meant a formal,
structured debate. I did not intend to imply that
we don't have good debates here.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 22:57
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
NJ: Yes, the Dollar is breaking into new low territory against the Yen tonight -- new lows for the past few months, that is. The rumor is that all the banks and hedge-funds that have borrowed Yen to buy US Treasury Bonds ( the Yen carry-trade ) , are starting to lose on the currency exchange rate of the Yen. To liquidate, they must sell US Bonds to pay of the Yen-loan. Watch out for the Dollar, watch out below on Bonds as more of these banks and hedge-funds get into trouble. Hundreds of billions of Dollars are reported to be in the carry-trade. Smaller amounts of the trade are versus the Swiss Franc.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 22:56
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold down .55 and Silver down 1 cent despite Dollar/Yen @ 111.14 down 1.23 ( 1.09% ) tonight...


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 22:55
arden ardengold@msn.com>(ardengold@msn.com):
Spud Master - thanks for your provocation. Apparantly Nymex does not give out numbers for warehouse stocks for platinum or palladium. At least I could not find them.

Comex eligible gold stocks were unchanged today at 277,416 oz. against a total of 160,319 contracts as of yesterday, leaving a very comfortable ratio of 1.73 oz available against each 100 oz contract. Seems like everyone seems comfortable here, Comex volume is so low that our good friend Glenn is pitching copper pennies to keep awake!! BUT JUST REMEMBER THAT EACH DAY OF SUCH BOREDOM, MORE THAN 100,000 OUNCES OF GOLD IS PURCHASED THAN IS PRODUCED FROM GOLD MINES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 22:50
Auric Suggestion>(Suggestion):

I would like to see a real debate about this whole
gold question. Perhaps Ted Butler and RJ could have
an exchange of views either here or some other forum
such as at Vronsky's site. I think it would be
interesting and educational.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 22:50
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
RJ: No need to explain any more. I misunderstood what you were referring to when you were talking about trust. I assumed you were talking about TRUST you had in financial-paper. It appears you weren't.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 22:46
Byron @ Falling Dollar:>(@ Falling Dollar:):
NJ: Ebn site also show $$ getting pounded ( or should I say yen-ded ) .


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 22:43
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Panda: Great comment @ 21:40. I had to laugh. But,I really do think it's the debtors that are smarter. My daughter says her college-age friends know of lots of students who get as many credit cards as they can , max-out on them, knowing all along they will declare bankruptcy when they have no credit left.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 22:38
RJ More Explanations>(More Explanations):
For those that have misunderstood or misapplied my use of trust and paranoia, These were used in direct response to:

Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 01:43
Eldorado ( @the scene ) :
.....Also, I find the 'pro-creating with your own cousin' mentality type of comment to be more of a 'governmental' type of response than a 'real' trader! Pardon ME if I DON'T TRUST YOU!!!!!

Does anyone else smell a bit of paranoia here? Besides I thought the procreating line was kindaí funny myself. Slick - didnít mean to offend.

Eldorado - they really are watching you........


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 22:31
APH ------------------------------>(------------------------------):
Mark Sheller - We were talking about cash S&P.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 22:10
NJ dollar>(dollar):
Dropping again http://www.abn.com.sg/feeds/currency.html


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 22:07
Mike Sheller I like my Mumbo JUMBO>(I like my Mumbo JUMBO):
PB: Were you quoting ( or should I say paraphrasing ) Alice Bailey? AWWRRIIIIGGHHHTTT! You speak my language, sir ( or Madam, as the case may be ) . RJ: Sharing opinions is exactly HOW we have fun! Gracias.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 22:02
Mike Sheller @Wave>(@Wave):
APH: If you're referring to gold's 1979/80 prior peak, that was the end of Wave 1 of a 5 wave monster bull begun in 1934. Gold is in a 150 or more year bull market. The action since '80 has been wave 2, and is a correction. March '85 saw the bottom at 285, and unless gold breaks that low, we are basing for the next leg up. That will begin at the end of '97/turn of '98. In the next century, gold will be in the thousands of dollars per ounce.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 21:58
Vieserre home>(home):
Steve: Glad to see you have joined the forum. Your erudite posts are intellectually stiumulating and educationally beneficial. I look forward to discourse with you on them from time to time.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 21:53
Vieserre home>(home):
Ted: Thanks GOOD TO SEE YOUR POSTS


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 21:52
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
PB & THE REST - I had no idea! I think I may finally be seeing the light about gold....... Sun ether you say Most enjoyable of all is that apparently some have not lost their sense of humor. For those that have taken offense at my occasional sardonic tone, please remember, the sport is in the debate. I do have a nasty habit of indulging in a bit of poking and prodding to provoke response, but I donít take myself as seriously as some others do. It also seems that some read my words though the tint of their own belief systems. My words mean what they say. There have been responses that speak of my implications. I think you all will agree that I tend not to imply when I can just as easily be bold and direct. All said and done, can we share opinions and still have fun?


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 21:51
panda @>(@):
Hmmm, I think I'll buy some Japanese Yen with my new fifties.. :- ) )


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 21:47
panda @>(@):
New Fifty Dollar bills to be unveiled AG and RR on Thursday. :- )


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 21:45
panda @>(@):
APH -- The Dow is going to infinity, I know. My Index fund investing co-workers tell me this all the time, and they know! :- ) )


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 21:40
panda @can.you.spare.a.dime?>(@can.you.spare.a.dime?):
Steve Puetz -- I read a story on Yahoo! today on the INCREASING bankruptcy rate. If you think 1996 was high, 1997 should top it easily. The average chapter 7 filer earned $20,000/year and carried $17,000 debit on their credit card when filing for bankruptcy. What's wrong with this picture? Who was dumber, debtor or lender? After some cogitating, perhaps the question should be, Who is smarter? :- ) )


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 21:34
APH ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''>(''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''):
Earl - This is pure guess work at this time, but here goes. If 870.05 turns out to be the Wave III top, Wave IV would have a target of 480 near the end of 1998 or early 1999. This would be a 50% correction of the entire move and put it in contact with the upward 2x1 Gann line from the 1982 low on a monthly cash chart. This same line held the 1987 and 1991 corrections. Late 1998 would coincide with the very realible 4 year cycle lows in the stock market. Of course the correction won't go straight down but will be filled with powerful rallies. If Wave IV ends at 480 Wave V will have a wide target range between 970 and 1250. A 1250 S&P would equal a Dow of 11,000.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 21:27
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Kid Silver: Real Estate is leveraged -- just like financial assets. Residential mortgage debt is at a record high of 40% of the market-value of all homes in the U.S. That's nearly 3 times as high as 1929.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 21:25
Auric Short Story>(Short Story):

Panda: Liked the quote. It is dangerous to be
short the PGM's without the metal. A lesson the
gold market may learn as well.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 21:24
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Vieserre: Good comment @ 15:23

Pedro: Excellent prose @ 16:57


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 21:17
panda @>(@):

I love the comment about not being short platinum. :- ) )

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/10/y0023_6.html


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 21:13
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Earle re: 17:36. I think you have summed it up. In the end it will be a precious few who beat the system.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 21:12
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
RJ: You seemed to have caused a stir. I agree, logic and reason are the only tools available to improve one's condition. However, you then imply that investors heavily into gold are paronoid. You use what Ayn Rand called the Argument from Intimidation. Read chapter 19 of The Virtue of Selfiness by Ayn Rand. Rand states,There is a certain type of argument which, in fact, is not an argument at all, but a means of forestalling debate and extorting an opponent's agreement with one's undiscussed notions. It is a method od bypassing logic by means of psychological pressure... She goes on to state that people who use name-calling in an arguement usually do so because they are losing the arguement. They resort to name-calling in a last-ditch attempt to psycholigically break their opponent. I have learned to recognize this technique, and don't fall for it.

The true point of the debate in paper is TRUST. You may have faith and trust in paper, but I don't. My question to you is: Why do you trust paper so much? The history of monetary-receipts, credit-paper, and fiat currency is one of flaggart broken promises. This is where the debate must be centered. I for one recommend investors get liquid. Get virtually all of your assets into gold and silver coins.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 21:08
D.A. re.options>(re.options):
Glenn:

Volatility need not effect puts and calls symetrically. There are always volatility skews across the spectrum of strikes. If you look at silver for instance you will find that the far out of the money calls have a higher implied vol than the equidistant out of the money puts. I have looked to see if volatility skews can be used to predict action in the underlying but so far have not found anything too exciting.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 21:07
Kid Silver _>(_):
Steve Puetz - Along with gold and silver coin. What else should
we stock up on for the coming crash?

What will happen to real estate prices durng this period?


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 20:58
TED @vieserre>(@vieserre):
Vieserre: WELCOME BACK!....again...


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 20:57
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Aurator: You ask: Why no dry powder? I recommended 60% silver, 36% gold, and 4% S&P puts. That IS 96% dry powder!! Gold and silver are the ultimate liquidity -- cold, hard cash. In the old days, investors went to goldsmiths, banks, etc. to convert their paper to gold -- that was an act of getting liquid. Today, in the era of fiat currencies, the act of moving from paper to precious metals is the same process of getting liquid. I'm recommending investors get highly liquid. That's why I recommend 96% of invesment funds be held in gold and silver coins.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 20:51
Duke of Earl @eldont>(@eldont):
Eldont: What in the world are you talking about? IMHO this is crazy!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 20:51
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
WW: Good comment @ 8:00 a.m.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 20:47
Eldont @paperhanger>(@paperhanger):
Eldont: Why don't you cut back on the toilet paper and buy some IBM!HI to the Duke of Earl!hahaha


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 20:39
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold down .45 and Silver down 1 cent...Front:Ya got yer answer in the mail box...Novice: Great e-mail and thanks...am tired from doin nothin today and will be back at ya tomorrow Maritimer....Mooney: Get to work!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 20:17
vronsky A Chicken in Every Speculator's Pot by Michael Belkins - Strategic Investment>(A Chicken in Every Speculator's Pot by Michael Belkins - Strategic Investment):
Globally acclaimed Analyst sees ďGold skyrocketing when leveraged players are forced to buy back their forward sales. Margin calls will cause price to feed on itself higher. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 20:11
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
APH: How do you see wave 4 in terms of time and price. Even more important, how do you view the final leg up to the mother of all tops? Feel comfortable projecting time and price to the top?


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 20:05
Glenn au_usa@hotmail.com>(au_usa@hotmail.com):
Ww - Re: Call prices - Call prices have NOTHING to do with whether traders are bullish or bearish. They have everything to do with: The price of the underling contract ( In this case the price of silver ) , the current volitility levels ( Which affects call and put prices equally ) , and the amount of time until expiration. Stock options also take into account interest rates and dividend payments. For the record I should also mention that option prices can be different if you have an american style option or an european option. An american style option can be exerciased at any time before expiration and an european option can only be exercised on the day of expiration. All options traded in the US that I know of are American style.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 20:05
TED @lifeofreilly>(@lifeofreilly):
Mooney: I suppose you think returning the roto-tiller, stopping in at the Casino and planting more of the crops is not work....I am beat and really need a vacation from this rat-race as you can only do so much...and by the way Mooney, the Hamilton Bulldogs made a third period comeback against the Hershey Bears last night to pull out a thrilling 2-1 victory and now trail Hershey 2-1 in games but the next game is in Hamilton...This is for the CALDER CUP ...Mooney!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 19:56
APH mistera@interaccess.com>(mistera@interaccess.com):
S&P cash - Today may have been a wave 3 top in SPC. Assumming 1982 started off this Bull market at 88 ( this is an approximation, I don't have the actual low but it's close ) wave I ended in 1987 at 337.90, wave II ended at 216.50 in Oct 1987. Wave III is extended. A common relationship of wave III to wave I when Wave III is extended is I x 2.618 added to the wave II low. That projects a high of 870.70 todays high was 870.05. I bought S&P puts today looking for a wave IV correction to begin.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 19:56
Glenn au_usa@hotmail.com>(au_usa@hotmail.com):
To: eirc - I can trade Gold, Silver and Copper. If I trade any other market I have to hand my order to another broker.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 19:30
Ww @New Englland>(@New Englland):
The quiet firmness and basing action in the metals is constructive. I am encouraged by failure to break this week even with Friday's weak and thus, normally ominous close. This is a distinct variation from the norm. Failures on fridays are almost always followed by severe pressure through tuesday. That this has not occured, even with weakening platinum, is probably the best signal in a long time.

Further, I sense a belief among the kitcoists to look at and appreciate the gold bear argument ala RJ and the Bear. This is truly a sign of crumbling sentiment.

In April, 1996, in Barron's Commodities Corner Jeff Christian of CPM predicted 8-10 silver by Fall of 1997 based on supply demand. We will see. Though interestingly enough the silver calls are holding up well given the market's current lackluster performance. Could be shorts buying back the calls in anticipation of a rally. FYI The calls holding up well vis a vis market action has been accurate in the past.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 19:03
panda @>(@):
Tortfeasor -- Platinum and palladium are very thin markets compared to most other commodities. When things get 'tense', Bid/Ask tends to get very wide because the people who 'want' the stuff, REALLY want it [look at stocks! :- ) ]. Also, transactions tend to be few because the 'stuff' is unavailable. Thus, rationing by price takes place, and, the brokers, making money on the spread with fewer transactions to be had..... The stuff of thin markets.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 18:54
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Fundy @ 13:30 - The 'hepcat' as you call him, managed to almost destroy the chat here at Kitco for a two week period near last Christmas by insulting everybody in sight and using about 15 different handles to do so; eventually Bart and others were debating how to end the insanity by instituting Handle change mechanisms etc. ( all because of one disturbed individual ) . He calmed down for a while but came back in full dementia on kitco 2. Since I was one of his prime targets, ( and sick of his nonsense from previous ) , I tried to tell him to grow up, along with similar comments from others. He has seemed to calm down in the last few days and I hope he stays that way. I did not even want to mention the idiocy any more as he seemed to stop in last few days but your question begged to be answered.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 18:46
eirc pit-to-pit>(pit-to-pit):
Hey Glenn - what are the limitations ( if any ) imposed by the exchange on a local moving from one pit to another ( like on a slooooow day such as today ) ?


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 18:28
GFD Managed Gold>(Managed Gold):
Vieserre: If you are right in your 15:25 post that for gold to move it must be seen to be a superior monetary investment then expect flat to down gold for an extended period. The CB's have been very active in ensuring that gold looks unattractive in that respect.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 18:26
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Glenn @16:37 - Since you are now our BMOC on the floor, please don't forget to let us know when the big day comes when you decide to cover your Gold short position!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 18:23
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Did anyone notice that DKT traded over 200k shares today. By comparison, ABX traded only ~300K shares. .... Is that flea bitten mutt, DKT, rising for real or only looking for a suitable place to expire?


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 18:16
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Jack: Bre-x salt shaker What a hoot! Great idea.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 18:08
D.A. re.pgms.stocks>(re.pgms.stocks):
Blonde:

I would advise extreme caution with respect to any recomendations by RSA. The person behind this letter has in the past recommended stocks which in my opinion were pure hype plays. I know absolutely zero about the company that is being recommended and do not mean to cast aspersions upon them. For all I know they may be the best thing since sliced bread. If you are going to take a position in the company do your homework well and see if RSA has been paid for promotion either in cash, stock or options.

If you are looking for investment ideas in the PGM's besides Stillwater, there is North American Palladium, a small Canadian Pa producer. Some of the South African co's ( Rustplats, Impala ) also have PGM exposure. John Disney probably can get you started in the regard as he follows the SA mining industry.

Best of Luck.
D.A.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 17:47
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
GFD @14:26: Good stuff! ..... We really have reached the point of cyber gold. ..... I wonder if cyber PL/PA will produce an equally fine catalytic device. And the roommate will certainly look elegant in a cyber gold bracelet. ...... How 'bout that bw? The perfect inducement for your wife.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 17:40
Blonde @NYC>(@NYC):
Tort, Pd and Pt are thinly traded markets that are likely very difficult for individual investors to participate in. If you're infected with the metal madness so prevalent here at KITCO, consider stocks. It may be that buy the dips will begin to work for metals. If you're a long term investor, accumulating stocks of companies with good reserves makes sense. Pd and Pt are not well represented in the stock market--Stillwater is probably the only serious one. I'm interested in Phoenix Gold as a result of a recent post here by RSA. It seems likely that Pd and Pt will do well in the next few years,but if you want excitement, go to Las Vegas. If you want to make money, buy the DOW or sell gold calls. That's where the serious money has been made up until now. BTW enough DB jokes already. You're setting a bad example for the kids here.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 17:36
Earl @worldaccessnet .com>(@worldaccessnet .com):
Fundy @12:17: Equally important as the govt controlled price of gold during the period in question, is its effect on general prices. Following the post civil war inflation, the US experienced an unprecendented period of price stability. This period of price stability ended with the advent of central banking. In fact, during the last decades of the 19th century, prices even declined.

Getting down to basic cases, we goldbugs hope to get rich somehow, when all we will be doing, if successful, is to counteract the pernicious effects of government. ..... and taking a helluva beating for our trouble.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 17:30
Jack pedro>(pedro):

Pedro: Well thought out piece of work. If they let gold
seek its own level as a commodity, that only their lip
service indicates and ban currency derivatives, the pain
caused by a major credit problem would probably be
bearable.
Such an approach may allow for gold backed currencies in
final case. This would be better than having to protect
ourselves with deadly weapons, or worst, living under
some despotic government.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 16:57
pedro @ attention>(@ attention):
RJ's challenging essay is just what we gold lemmings need to keep us from going over the edge of our hopes and commitment to gold.Permit me to add some thoughts.
Let's call paper money by it's real handle,CREDIT. As I undeerstand it Money ( which facilitates an otherwise unwieldy barter system ) to fulfill it's role as a medium of exchange and value standard must have some LASTING intrinsic value..a criteria Gold has successfully met for centuries.And the paper issued in it's name brought confidence and DISCIPLINE to the financial system.With the advent of Lord Keynes Deficit spending idea and the severing of the gold standard which followed,that discipline ( if not confidence ) soon began to evaporate in the wake of irresponsible management,Greed, and the usual other human failings.So what started out as a good idea to help solve the problems of the time has now become a bigger problem with the cost of serving mountains of debt ( both public and private ) eating away at the system which immutable laws suggest must eventually crack. The point is that we don't deal in MONEY any more but CREDIT. Money implies value and discipline...Credit has brought abuse, financial game-playing, greed and COMPLACENCY...a malaisive mixture which appears to be spreading to all facets of society. Worse, we have all become slaves to this evil Genie EASY CREDIT..willing or not. And THEY won't fix the system till it breaks...and that it seems will be in the not too distant future. But fix it they will when the time comes and it will have to be done quickly! With a return to value and discipline..a financial system's mainstays. The question is will GOLD have a role?


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 16:37
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
Re: PBR - As a matter of fact, YES. I was in copper for most of the day. Copper seems to be breaking out to the up side. I did very well today.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 16:37
Tortfeasor Platinum>(Platinum):
Panda, thanks for the post. That was pretty brutal today. Never have I thought I was doing so well and have been getting hurt so badly. Is it normal to have a mutual type spread ( bid and ask ) on all the commodities or is it just a platinum thing? Maybe there isn't that much of a spread on the other commodities.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 15:55
Jack Artic Spirit>(Artic Spirit):

Artic Spirit: How about considering a Bre-X commemorative
coins struck in silver, gold, bronze and pressed wood.
The numbers bought in each of the materials may give an
idea of the Public's sentiment toward precious metals,
mining companies.
A Bre-X salt shaker with the caps of various metals may
also sell well.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 15:45
vronsky ONE OF MY HEROS - BERNARD BARUCH>(ONE OF MY HEROS - BERNARD BARUCH):
Vieserre, RJ, PB et al: ďGold has worked down from Alexanderís time... When something holds good for two thousand years, I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory.Ē - Bernard Baruch, a 1929 and aftermath winner



Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 15:42
PBR Somewhere Else>(Somewhere Else):

Man, did the gold traders take a day off today or
what?


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 15:36
PB somewhere>(somewhere):
RJ, you are undoubtedly a genius. However, gold does have an intrinsic value. I quote from Gem Elixirs and Vibrational Healing, Vol. I by Gurudas:

Heindel said gold symbolizes the universal spirit in its perfect purity. Thus it purifies the dense physical body. Bailey said gold symbolizes our desires in various fields. Cayce said gold rebuilds the nervous system and is good for multiple sclerosis. Steiner said all gold was once part of the sun ether. Gold is extensively used in anthroposophical medicine. It improves circulation and breathing and increases our warmth.... With gold a sense of responsibility and a conscience may develop. There may be a need for gold where there is ego conflict, frustration in life, and one may be overburdened with responsibility. This is also good for the depressed person with much self-reproach and thoughts of suicide. It may also be good for the manic person with megalomaniac tendencies as well as excitation or rage.

What further proof could you want?


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 15:25
Vieserre Why Invest in Gold>(Why Invest in Gold):
RJ's recent thought-provoking posts have indeed reached their stated goal of inviting discourse, and I would like to add my comments in continuation of that theme.

What is gold. If it is merely a commodity, then it should only react to supply and demand for jewelery and industrial use. And it should be traded accordingly. And, as available supply far exceeds demand for that purpose, it is axiomatically a poor investment as RJ has stated. The supply/demand characterists for the use of gold as a commodity is also the reason in my view that gold has never responded well in price rising from jewelery demand, as evidenced by the present price. Gold's price is more responsive to its value as money, as discussed below. Indeed, if gold's price were predicated on jewelery demand, it would not serve well as an economic indicator, which is still being relied on today by some economists. This is why I believe those who rely on present jewelery demand as the reason for gold to rise are wide of the mark, and because they cannot otherwise explain the failure of gold to rise because of such usage, look for bank conspiracies, government intervention, producer hedging, gold carry trade and other such illusory scapegoats for the failure.

But imporantly, gold is just not a commodity, it is also money. Gold is money not because of government edict, but because it has been universally accepted as such due to its singular unique suitability as a medium of exchange. No other commodity, or arguably money, comes close to equaling its cumulative desirable characteristics of ease of transport, divisibility, esthetic appeal, indestructibility, global distribution, value retention, multiple of existing stock to new supply, and excellent marginal utility. It is for this reason that gold is still highly prized and almost all gold that has been mined has been retained. Rather than being a barbaric relic of the past, evidence, such as the LBMA turnover and its continued use as a reserve base, suggests that gold does and will continue to serve its role as money for the foreseeable future.

And it is in this more important capacity as money that gold will be sought after or abandoned ( including being added to or subtracted from reserves ) in consideration of actual or perceived economic and political conditions and gold's relative value to other monetary alternatives. And as gold is sought or abandoned, its relative value as money will rise and fall accordingly. And how one perceives the direction of gold value in such a monetary capacity should be the main determinate for one's investment in gold.



Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 15:23
Vieserre Why Invest in Gold>(Why Invest in Gold):
RJ's recent thought-provoking posts have indeed reached their stated goal of inviting discourse, and I would like to add my comments in continuation of that theme.

What is gold. If it is merely a commodity, then it should only react to supply and demand for jewelery and industrial use. And it should be traded accordingly. And, as available supply far exceeds demand for that purpose, it is axiomatically a poor investment as RJ has stated. The supply/demand characterists for the use of gold as a commodity is also the reason in my view that gold has never responded well in price rising from jewelery demand, as evidenced by the present price. Gold's price is more responsive to its value as money, as discussed below. Indeed, if gold's price were predicated on jewelery demand, it would not serve well as an economic indicator, which is still being relied on today by some economists. This is why I believe those who rely on present jewelery demand as the reason for gold to rise are wide of the mark, and because they cannot otherwise explain the failure of gold to rise because of such usage, look for bank conspiracies, government intervention, producer hedging, gold carry trade and other such illusory scapegoats for the failure.

But imporantly, gold is just not a commodity, it is also money. Gold is money not because of government edict, but because it has been uni


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 15:02
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):
To Kitco Teckies:

Deaner's Prudent Trader page with its analysis of the XAU and Gold has some interesting WEEKLY charts and commentary on the XAU and gold. Take a look: http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/8139


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 14:26
GFD Thoughts>(Thoughts):
Earl@21:49, Eldorado@22:07 - I suspect the real significance of Big Trader and Ted Butler's obervations is that the true supply/demand picture is very clouded with all this paper flying around. There is no way of knowing where everyone is exactly becase of all this forward selling and gold leasing.

While a lot of gold mines would be loosing money at these price levels they all seem to be living off of forward sales in any case. Mining is becoming a means of fulfilling ones contractual obligations. It would appear that mines make their money ( like everyone else ) on the trading desk. Actually hauling rock out of the ground and extracting gold seems to be something one does to keep the lawyers happy.

The issue here is how does one price gold mining companies and the underlying metal. Should one analyse ABX like Goldman Sachs? If so where are the relevant numbers? What is ABX's portfolio risk? Is gold simply now a financial construct like a repo or a spread

Perhaps it is old fashioned to look a mining companies cost of recovery but rather look at it's cost of meeting obligations. Why should it mine when it can borrow more cheaply Why should it borrow when it can cover it's forward sales with an option - matching paper with paper

Bullion market Isn't that next door to the buggy whip museum



Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 14:22
panda @>(@):
Tortfeasor -- Don't misunderstand.... The PA/PL situation is far from 'done'. IMO, it would be 'nice' if it looked that way. Too many people with 'exposed' posteriors. Anything can and will happen, especially in markets as 'thin' as these are! Rhodium is hopping to!

kuton -- Your welcome!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 14:16
kuton thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
Panda: Thank you for high-lighting the yahoo stories each morning.

Regarding the last one: ~Anglo American Platinum Corp Ltd saw the
Russian stockpiles have been depleted. I wonder if they know this
or they think it?



Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 14:02
panda @>(@):
Tortfeasor -- Read my 13:54...


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 13:55
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com):
Just as a voice of warning---don't buy platinum future options. Friday I bought 440 put options when platinum was at 470 an ounce. I just sold the option today when platinum was at 436. Because of the spread and the thin market I managed to lose money on what seemed like a sweet deal and a big profit. Ladies and genetlement beware and learn from the screwee on that deal.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 13:54
panda @>(@):
Another PL/PA story...
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/10/y0023_z00_19.html


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 13:45
bw Buy some silver:>(Buy some silver:):
All the elements are in place for an explosive up move in the other white precious metal. It sounds trite, but this could be our last chance below 5.00.

o Bullish consensus at 31% up from 25% several weeks ago. This months worth of consensus is the lowest in many years.

o Commericals covering shorts for the last two months. They now hold one of their smallest short positions in many years. The silver commercials are rarely wrong, sometimes but rarely.

o Open interest low and falling. Watch this one. One day with a 3,000 - 5,000 or so contract drop on rising prices and we are off to the races.

o Other metals heating up. They do often travel in packs.

o DA says dont be short.

o Sentiment so rotten you feel like giving away all metals. Dont even bother selling it. Give it away.

o Paper is where its at. Stocks gain 120 billion on a fair day. Everyone is buying paper, nobody buys metals.

o My wife said I could buy some more if I get her a gold bracelet. You can always use more gold.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 13:34
yellowdog @option expiration friday>(@option expiration friday):
How many think Friday's metals' option expiration will be anything but dull?


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 13:30
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Mooney: I'm in great shape for a low tide. If the recent call for 20,000 an oz comes true I'll be a multimillionaire--like most here. I expect it will be a long time acoming. What is the story with you and the Hepcat? He is blasting you on about 4 different sites.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 13:28
vronsky OIL & GAS INDEX (XOI)>(OIL & GAS INDEX (XOI)):
Mike Sheller: Astute and timely comment about CRUDE OIL & NATURAL GAS. The Oil & Gas Index ( XOI ) broke out on friday - suppoting your post. See:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/crude_oil/xoi_chart.html


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 13:27
Mike Sheller Theirs, they'res, theres, therz something funny here>(Theirs, they'res, theres, therz something funny here):
vronsky: No inadvertant slip. Just defending your intellectual property. A cyber-freudian slip if you ask me. You are THE gold historian!!! ALL: August gold still needs to break out of short term downtrend to get going. At this point in time & space, the magic number to pass is $348.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 13:23
vronsky inadvertant double post>(inadvertant double post):
Sorry, computer has hiccups.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 13:22
Mike Sheller It's, its, itz, itts, itss...time for some energy>(It's, its, itz, itts, itss...time for some energy):
Noticed CRUDE OIL & NAT GAS puts running ahead of calls on futures options. This is usually a warm clue to impending price rally. Especially the gas. Just thought the energy traders would be interested. Also, intermediate term price pattern is at support ( give or take a dime or two ) in crude oil on the weekly chart. And last but not least, Mars trines ( 120 degree angle ) NYSE Neptune Thursday & Friday of this week. Could be a minor lift to oil there, but I'm not talking betting the farm.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 13:21
vronsky TREVOR STEEL'S 'STUDY' (1929-1935)>(TREVOR STEEL'S 'STUDY' (1929-1935)):
GERY: An interesting post. I think perhaps Trevor Steel 'borrowed' the gold stocks 1929-1935 data from a sutdy I did THREE YEARS AGO. You may entire study at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/great_crash.html



Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 13:13
vronsky TREVOR STEEL'S 'BORROWED' STORY>(TREVOR STEEL'S 'BORROWED' STORY):
GERY: An interesting post. I think perhaps Trevor Steel 'borrowed' the gold stocks 1929-1935 data from a sutdy I did THREE YEARS AGO. You may see entire study at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/great_crash.html


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 12:26
Novice @Whither the Whites...>(@Whither the Whites...):
Bart: Once again, thanks for providing us with updates on the PGMs... Please keep 'em coming. Bet D.A. is BUSY!!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 12:17
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
According to Vronsky's History of Gold the US price was $20.67 until 1934 when it was raised to $35. Interesting the price had been $20.67 for a 100 years. I think this limits the notion that gold holds its value through a depression. It does as long as the US Gov intervenes.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 12:15
Gery Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox>(Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox):
To all. Last week I had to visit a fund managers meeting in Vienna/Austria. I got the opportunity to talk to Trevor Steel. He is the manager of the Mercury Gold and Miningn Fund. As goldfund-manager he's bullish for the goldmarkets ( he was already 12 months ago, when I met him the first time ) , but he did some interesting analysing work:
He compared the performance of gold stocks during the big crash-periods in this century:
In august 1929 Homestake Mining was at 80 USD in June 1932 it was uo 50% and in January 1936 it was up 556 % at 525 USD. In the same Periode the S&P Composite went down 81 % in the first step and 7 years after the crash it still was down 55%.
During the oil crisis in the 70s Homestake made 60 % between January 73 and October 74. The S&P lost 36 %.
After the October-Crash 1987 the gold stocks suffered much more ( -40% ) than the broad market, but they did much better than the S&P about one year before the crash - the went up aprox. 50 % from march to april 87, sthe S&P did almost nothing at the same time. After the crash the bullion price about 10 percent.
At the moment Trevor Steel believes that about 50 % of the world goldmines work without profit. During the first quarter 97 there was the highest demand for gold ever recorded. Total demand in monitored markets was uo 17 % to 770.6 tonnes.
To get a feeling how financials are valued Mercury compared the annual returns of gold, bonds and stocks:
1926 - 1997
Stocks 10,7 % p.a.
Bonds 5,1% p.a.
Gold Bullion 4,2 % p.a.

1980 - 1997
Stocks 17,3 % p.a.
Bonds 12,3 % p.a.
Gold Bullion -2,1 % p.a.

If the world wishes to invest in gold, we'll see a nice squeeze:
The capitalisation of the WORLD Gold Mining-Industrie is around 78 Bio. US$ - IBMs is 80 Bio. US$, Intels 130 Bio. US$.

No chance to be wrong investing in gold.

Regards


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 12:06
Spud Master taters heading for parachutes & exit door>(taters heading for parachutes & exit door):
Arden, thank you for continuing to post the wharehouse numbers - do you expect they are being cooked yet? Might there be little or no metal there? What do the Pt and Pd wharehouse numbers look like?

Spud


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 12:02
asianmgt asianmgt@space.net.au>(asianmgt@space.net.au):
Hello I need assistance! Can any one give me a site where I can get the chart for the Dow for a past period of 10 yrs + ?


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 11:35
Specialist @gettin rid of stocks and goin short>(@gettin rid of stocks and goin short):
What do Floor Exchange Specialists do to unload their stock inventory?: RAISE PRICES to stimulate demand. What do they do to accumulate and replenish their inventory: DROP PRICES to encourage public selling.

Only in an investment world would we see prices going up to get rid of inventory rather than the other way around.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 11:27
Arctic Spirit spirit@internorth.com>(spirit@internorth.com):
Father's Day is coming up ...

http://ww.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 11:27
Bart Kitner (Kitco) bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com):
More news about the Russian supply situation at http:///news.platinum.html.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 11:20
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Waite: It's clear and I also plead, mea culpa. Improving communition skills requires conscious effort. Correction with elaboration will be gratefully accepted. Whether on line or off.

Mooney: Misuse of There and their is not the result of ignorance so much as inadvertance IMO.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 11:09
Preacher gold, grain and guns>(gold, grain and guns):
RJ: in your post of 23:23 you stated that Gold is the IDEA of wealth. I quite agree. What you fail to realize is that the only place that this idea has been abandoned is in the western world where people believe that little pieces of paper with pictures of dead guys on them are wealth. The rest of the world ( a few billion people give or take ) still consider gold to be a store of wealth and therefore it is.

You pointed out that gold is at an 18 year low in US$. I say What a deal!. Should I be able to profit short term from that I will. But I will also accumulate that shiny stuff. It is foolish to think that western economic power and values will continue ad infinitum and quite frankly the West has seen its zenith. In twenty years none of the worlds 20 largest cities will be in North America or Europe. So who then will set the standard of what is valuable?

As for me, I will keep my gold, my grain and my gun all close at hand in the coming decade.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 11:05
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Hmm...Dow Industrials rocketing up tp 7555 ( approx ) , while Dow Utilities down to 219...this continual divergence probably will not hold up. As Richard Russell of CA says, this is a good sign of a bear onset.
In the real world, plenty of rain here tonight, but the farmers here feel there may be a drought in Australia this year. ( El Nino effect again )


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 10:47
cueball What?>(What?):
http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/NATION/topstory.html

Bart, I'm going to start posting here if you don't soon administer my
previous e-mails to post on channel 2. Please.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 10:46
D.A. curiouser.and.curiouser>(curiouser.and.curiouser):
JohnC:

That lease rates have jumped for gold and silver based upon the action in Pa and Pl is not that surprising. I think that a lot of people are squaring up positions so as not to be caught by any big moves. This may involve getting the herd back inside the barn and thus the physical tightness in the markets.

On the topic of Pa and Pl. I am more familiar with the action in the Pa market because I have been intimately involved with it over the last several nights. The current selling in both metals is coming out of one of the big US trade houses. This selling was advertised up front, so my belief is that it is a play to shake some longs. I don't think anything at all has changed on the fundamental field and that is what is driving these markets. I have heard some rumors to the effect that Tiger doesn't control nearly as much physical metal as was thought but that they still have substantial paper positions that will come rolling in. If this is true then the situation may actually be more precarious then had been previously thought.

My base assumption with regards to at least the Pa market is that price is going to have to ration supply. We must reach a price that effectively terminates some segment of market demand. I don't know the number but still suspect it is much, much higher. We have sold almost 80% of our long position but that is only because the value of the position grew to such an enormous size relative to the funds that we manage that prudence required its disposal. I would not be surprised if this effect accounted for similar long liquidation.

As I have pointed out before, the pattern in the squeeze markets over the last few years has been and initial spike, followed by a lull, and then a more massive squeeze in the next delivery period. All the signs point to a similar outcome in the Pa market. This would make Sept Pa very attractive.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 10:39
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Have just been watching a PBS ( US ) TV show here in Australia on the US Stock Market. After realising that some of the US stock/mutual fund holders have got virtually ALL of their funds invested in shares, for the long term, a great chilling fear has crept over me. One lady who was interviewed didn't even know what stocks she was in! ( not to mention she was a very DUMB blonde ) . The dumb husband has just let her do it, because they need to make some fast money. God help us!!!! The fever is nowhere as great here as in the US. Time to watch out!!!!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 10:32
miro Y2K cost must be expensed quarterly>(Y2K cost must be expensed quarterly):
Steve: Yes the cost will be tremendous for both - correcting the problem
and conducting the business and fight legal battles in the post
year 2000 market.

In early July 1996 the standards-and-practices-setting Financial
Accounting Standards Board ( FASB ) ruled that companies cannot amortize
Yr2k work as an extraordinary capital expense but must deduct from
earnings on a quarterly basis as the work is done. Other financial and
accounting associations have agreed with the FASB, and the Federal
Financial Institutions Examination Council ( FFIEC ) has issued its own
set of directives.

Reasoning is ( and I believe rightly so ) that the Y2K correction does not
add any new functionality or value to company books - you get the same
system ( except that it may work past year 2000 ) .
Whatís even more depressing is that many companies do not even know about
it and are early in a process of estimating how much it will cost to
correct the problem. This means they will hand a very unpleasant
surprise package to board of directors and company shareholders when they
have all numbers in place.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 10:30
Tortfeasor Platinum>(Platinum):
Platinum getting knocked out of bed this morning. Maybe gold can move in an take its place on the next move up.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 10:26
RJ rjd@pacbell.net.>(rjd@pacbell.net.):
Waite - Its a wonderful day in the neighborhood. Its nice to be appreciated. OH, my! Iím going to be late! Its time to go!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 10:22
RJ No time now.>(No time now.):
I'll respond to other comments later, I've got metals to trade.



Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 10:20
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
Eldorado - NO NEED TO SHOUT! WE ARE ALL GENTLEMEN HERE. In reply to your response to my recent treatise on gold:

The issue of trust has been raised. Since nothing I say or do can possibly affect you, nor do I wish to change your mind, nor are you a client of mine, I fail to see how trust is an issue. My usual response to paranoia is to stand on your left, reach around your back, and tap your right shoulder. As for chubby feline, please read the sentence regarding fat cats just prior to the offending reference. I recognize that there is an entire sentence between these two references. Is short term memory a problem here? I do admit the second reference was a bit lame, but I like to play with words and sometimes ignore my better instincts. As for not yet responding to your request for explanation of my reasons to expect lackluster performance for gold this year, did you not read my 23:23? I apologize for not adhering to your timetable, but the year is less than half over, is a few days too long? You are nothing if not passionate.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 10:14
George S. Cole gscole@ix.netcom.com>(gscole@ix.netcom.com):
Gold stocks not doing well this morning; skepticism over yesterday's rally was justified.

WW: Amen! The current huge overvaluation in financial assets and undervaluation of the metals virtually guarantee that the inevitable reversals will be much stronger than most anticipate.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 10:05
vronsky HISTORY OF GOLD>(HISTORY OF GOLD):
FUNDY & SPEED: I think you will find most of your answers by clicking the black banner with gold mask entitled: HISTORY OF GOLD on the Gold Digest page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 09:38
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com):
Blonde, good to see you back. I thought maybe you had washed out in the tide. Tell me more about the advantages of a blonde broker. Its a given that I can't do much worse than I have been doing lately. Just as I thought platinum and paladium regrouping at a lower price. Do you see these metal continuing an upward spiral after this retrenchment?


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 09:37
ross sorry>(sorry):
http://www.ms.com/GEFdata/digests/latest.html


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 09:32
ross xxxx>(xxxx):
apologies try http://www.ms.com/GEFdata/digests/latest.htm
it is the artical on China & Oil


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 09:23
ross ross@canada>(ross@canada):
fyi -interesting artical
http://www.ms.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.htm#xtocid157695


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 09:15
panda @?>(@?):
Fundy -- Didn't they ( government ) devalue to $35/oz in 1933?


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 09:13
JohnC @Sunny Brisbane>(@Sunny Brisbane):
To D.A. or anyone else keeping a close eye on Gold Forwards,

I picked up the following comment on a Friday Gold market summary and wondered if you or other learned contributors' might know what this Macquarie Bank commentator is alluding to:
Yesterday's huge borrowing in the gold forwards was believed to have been on behalf of a U.S. based house who was defensively covering gold forward positions as a result of difficulties stemming
from its palladium trading.
It is taken from http://www.macquarie.com.au/menu/mnu32.htm

Perhaps this might be a sign that metal loan problems in PL and PA are starting to filter over into Gold as Ted Butler is expecting.

I would welcome any info on Gold forwards starting to be covered.
Happy Trading JC


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 09:08
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Vronsky: The discussion was about the US gov holding the price of gold at $20 during the 1929-1935 depression and thereby hold up the gold mining shares as well. Now Speed wants some proof that this actually happened.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 09:06
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Platinum weakening today?
Never make forecasts, especially about the future. ---Samuel Goldwyn
Oh-Oh! Time to buy some puts and calls? - Alan Greenspan is giving a speech tonight!
After reading Oracle of Alberta's 'threads' yesterday at Gold Eagle, I had a thought that I should share. It was about two weeks ago that someone here had a message from their large overseas dealer friend that there would be a lot of selling of gold at $355. Yesterday my Friedberg's broker suggested that that company ( large commodity broker ) would not be reversing their short position unless Aug. Gold broke $355. Also remember Glenn's sea of hands at certain price points? Gold barely budged ( even in a small show of sympathy ) with the massive Platinum move. That seemed strange to me. Has someone a stranglehold on the market? Where's that damned Shadow when you need him most?


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 09:00
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
RJ: You made the point I have been trying to make and you did it in one post. How about a couple of hundred words on the cause of the German inflation of the '20s. The famous wheel barrel of money for a loaf of bread.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 08:57
Blonde @NYC>(@NYC):
Tortfeasor, maybe you should find a blonde commodity broker! Just a thought. As your blonde friend, I think I suggested cash some time ago.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 08:41
panda @>(@):
Dollar moving up slightly, a flight to quality? Fund managers selling european funds because of English and French election results. Meanwhile the Russians are doing their impersonation of the Three Stooges regarding the PGMs, Now everybody point to their left! Not that left, your other left! ( slap! )

Now for our Three Stooges, wonder how the May jobs number will be revised? By a factor of 2+, again? Don't worry, be happy! Buy tech stocks! ;- ) )


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 08:36
LB to Miro>(to Miro):
Thanks for your post. Since the y2k problem is imminent, immediate and serious, I am surprised at the lack of concern.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 08:36
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Front - Watch you don't hit no moose or flag-bearers as you whiz through the muskeg!
WW - I really can't tell you how much better I like your posts lately!
Ted - Walk-in, place $100 on number 23 immediately. When you collect the $3,500.00, go to the travel agency and buy a round ticket Toronto/ Sidney. Go to post office and mail it to me. I'll bring my metal detector and swimming trunks and we'll find that damn gold on Scaterie!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 08:23
TED @lifeofreilly>(@lifeofreilly):
Front: ya gotta slow down and relax....cut back on the schedule a bit! Did ya get me e-mail....Tort:Will be checkin the headlines fer murdered commodities brokers...gotta run and return roto-tiller and then maybe stop at the CASINO fer some real gambling...and Mooney doesn't think this is WORK! Grow up Mooney and get TO WORK!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 08:09
panda @daffy-nitions>(@daffy-nitions):
An article I read on Saturday in the IBD stated that the rise in the long bonds may be a sign of 'cognitive dissonance'. A psychological term. I prefer the word 'absurd', it has the same meaning. In other words, 'acting contrary to your belief', and knowing better.....


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 08:08
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Mooney:

Hi again... Forgot to mention that today is going to be very stressful. I have to drive my 4x4 motorcycle through the bushes today. It's tough ducking all those branches and stopping to watch the deer play. Then it's off shopping with my wife. NOW THATS TOUGH ! Then I have to pick up my kid from baseball practice and inbetween all those stresses, watch the market to decide if RJ may be right or not !!! Tough day ahead lad !!!

RJ: Just a short note saying thanks for the topic. My problem is where you asked if I'd rather have the money or the gold at $430~. You went on to say that the value of the money had dropped to half. But the Gold had only dropped to $340. Doesn't that make gold a better holder of value as Earl mentionned? Just a thought ....

Off to the wars ....

TTFN


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 08:00
WW @NewEngland>(@NewEngland):
Economies just dont collapse and when they do, normally few see it coming. Collapses by definition arise from excesses in which most are participating stk mkt/excess credit etc.. Ergo few see the collapse or want to see the collapse coming. To illustrate how twisted the excesses can become I saw the comment today that excessive bankruptcies ( admittedly caused for the most part by job loss or pay cuts ) are a sign of a strong economy. With stks rising and the happy talk on TV what other explanation could there be. NEWS follows price. We will see what they say when the stk mkt falls. I bet the view will be different.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 08:00
Mooney @Ted>(@Ted):
Ted@7:48 - Been There, Done That. Lived on Vancouver Island for seven years! Can't wait to go back.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 07:58
Tortfeasor Joke of the morning>(Joke of the morning):
Morning Ted and all. The market appear rather lackluster this morning. It might be a good time to short platinum before it retrenches after its heavy gains. Russia is going to come out and sell when the price is right and the price will go down big time. Now for the joke of the morning.


Four international businessmen are on the golf course, and there is a
ringing sound. The Canadian guy goes to his golf bag, pulls out his cellular phone and talks for a minute with his office. Very important to be in touch these days, he says. Yes, his golfing partners agree.

A little bit later another, a different ring is heard, and the
American golfer holds his hand up to his head ( as if to imitate talking
on the phone ) and starts talking in what is clearly a real conversation.

After the call he explains to his friends, It's the very latest in
cellular technology--a speaker is attached to my thumb, and a microphone to my pinky. You can't even tell I have it on.

A couple of holes later, a different, muted, ringing sound is
heard, and the German businessman in the foursome stands erect and begins
talking, again an obviously real conversation. When finished he explains,
This really is the latest in cellular technology. A speaker is implanted in my ear, and a microphone in the backside of a front tooth. I just stand at attention to talk.

Suitably impressed, the foursome continues their game. Suddenly, the
Japanese golfer excuses himself and ducks behind a bush. After he doesn't re-appear for several minutes, the American golfer goes to make sure he is okay. He finds him behind the bushes squatting down with his pants around his ankles.

Is everything okay? asks the American.

Yes, replies the Japanese golfer, If you could just give me a
minute here, I'm expecting a fax...



Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 07:55
Mooney @Ted>(@Ted):
That IS the morning joke, Ted - Gold up a Dime!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 07:53
Bob A PGMS>(PGMS):
Latest issue of Nat. Review has an article by J. Dizard. He likes Plat and Pall, says SWC is in process of management change. Probably why SWC has had such a poor response to recent plat./pall rise. PDG is now being touted by another mkt. letter writer, prior to this he was neg. on gold.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 07:52
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Waite - Re: your comment to RJ that, You have a reasoned and rational approach and an obvious store of experience.
I would agree that RJ makes a valuable contribution to the site and that he ( for the most part ) tries to have a reasoned and rational approach and that, as many others also, he more than likely has a valuable store of experience. Where your statement ( and his reasoning ) falls apart though, is that I don't see any evidence that he has either first-hand knowledge ( read- experience ) or any historical knowledge of the final phase of the degrading of fiat currencies. His sharp retort to slick's 1:11 which he posted @ 1:21 seems to imply that the only way the economy can break down is through nuclear war or some such war-like 'apocalypse'. This 'reasoned' approach is not taking into account that economies can 'melt-down' for many other man-made reasons besides the advent of world war or environmental disaster. Modern ( post-1900 ) history is rife with examples of hyper-inflation. The last massive increase in the price of Gold and Silver ( 1980 ) was not due to physical shortage but due to the fact that a financial panic hit the Western world and the masses started to worry about the actual future value of the 'greenback'. For a brief period, people were glued to their T.V.'s watching the nightly news showing line-ups of people, at banks around the world, tring desperately to get Gold for their paper 'money'. Yes, kiddies, we did almost have a total financial melt-down in our lifetime and it may happen again. I'm not saying that this is a scenario that is to be fervently prayed for, but it is historical fact and to discount it offhand by degrading the messanger of such truths is not an entirely 'reasoned' and 'well-balanced' ( read- experienced ) approach.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 07:51
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Tort: Where the hell is our mornin joke...EBN Gold up a dime...


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 07:50
panda @some.news>(@some.news):
Rhodium story;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/10/strategic_1.html

Russian gold story;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/10/y0023_z00_10.html

PGM story;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/10/z0009_37.html


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 07:48
TED @FRONT>(@FRONT):
Front: Ya got a missile coomin yer way!...Mooney: We're on to yer games and why don't you get a real JOB and stop this charade that you actually WORK...How would you cope if you had to sit on the deck lookin at the ocean?...Could you deal with that Mooney? I don't think so as it's very high-stress and I'm beginning to think I need a VACATION!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 07:27
WW @New England>(@New England):
RJ: It is true economies change and the global economy of the 1990s may have some unique characteristics. Nevertheless, it is human psychology which ultimately drives markets. Currently, the expectation for metals is extremely low and for financials it is nirvana. I would posit it is these extremes in sentiment which give rise to reversal. Everyone is in financials and thus are potential sellers when there is disappointment conversely, everyone is negative and short metals thus giving great upward potential. When the horse gets out of the barn on either of these perceptions ,headlines and conventional wisdom will quickly change. This is the reason for the manipulation as the big financial people who have an interest in the current ponzi scheme know all too well that news follows price thus they try to keep the horse in the barn ie suppress gold rescue S&P when necessary. Their efforts will make the natural forces much more ferocious once they take over. Once it does you will soon here comments like risky overvalued blue chips risky junk bonds and liquid and safe metals. Once these headlines start pouring forth it will be very difficult for the boys to reverse the capital flow given the extreme situation that has been created. Platinum may be a warning sign.
The current arguments against gold are merely the product of its poor and contrived price performance and the negative sentiment trying to make sense of that which does not really make sense.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 07:23
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust):
RJ: Your discourse on why gold is generally NG for much of anything is interesting. But the dollars I saved in 1933 ( I was 7 and caught nightcrawlers and sold them to fishermen 20 for a nickel ) now have less than 10 cents in comparitive purchasing power. The Double Eagle my Dad gave me that year rather than turn it in ( yes that made him a criminal! ) has in fact more purchasing power now than it did then. You may say this is a short term phenom. Perhaps. But I still like to have a few gold coins and some gold stocks in my pantry. And while I have not made a fortune in gold stocks since I started buying them in 1959 I have held my own in the purchasing power arena with them. Short term thinking you may say? Perhaps. But then aren't we all short term in the total scheme of things?


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 07:21
Duncan To : Waite (6:21)>(To : Waite (6:21)):
Good one Waite - your'e gonna have a field day at this site!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 07:11
Front upandatum@renc.igs.net>(upandatum@renc.igs.net):

Mooney:

Life of Reilly eh!

Hey guy, I had to put up with the blazing 30 degree sunshine yesterday on the Seadoo! That was tough ! I had to lock the cat upstairs before she nearly made out with my slippers which were on my feet at the time! That was tough ! I had to go and take a baby catfish off my fishing hook since it had to go back in the river ! That was tough ! I had to eat 3 times ( twice with desert ) and absorb a $502 dollar loss yesterday ! That was tough ! So what did you do .... besides drive around the city in your air-conditioned car and visit people for tea in their air-conditioned homes and then come home and have a cool one because you worked sooooo hard? I tell you, I think the pots calling the kettle black a bit too much today !!! ( :- ) )

TED : send me an air-mail ..... OK above...


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 06:54
TED @mooney>(@mooney):
Mooney ( 00:10 ) To your list add re-building a house ( improving the real estate value ) ;makin money in that hated stock market and compoundind me money through D.R.I.P'S and yer right on the money...and throw in chainsawin all my heat source every year...Life of Reilly would kill you in two-three days...hahahaha


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 06:51
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Morning Ted, and Waite! Just a darn minute now, Waite. What about the fact that so many here freely exchange there for their and vice-versa. Can't stand that and yet I've even caught myself doing it from time to time! :- )


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 06:49
Mike Sheller @RJ>(@RJ):
RJ: You are right. And so is everyone else. In that seeming disparity lies the lure of gold. Human activity leaves much room for gaps and blunders. Your observation no commodity exists in isolation is the key. Gold is thus a primo financial and emotional vehicle for the expression of many factors that, when they converge just so, can offer stupendous profits and enjoyable entertainment. It is not so much the plaything of the stupid and greedy as it is the gamepiece of the intelligent and adventurous of spirit. Hence the dialogue at Kitco, where adventurous, intelligent, spirited people gather 'round the campfire and spin yarns about their gold campaigns, hopes, and dreams. We are all looking for THE moment. We are all aware of the pitfalls, most having been stung heavily by the yellow bees, but back to try again. It is the timing and the observation that makes gold more valuable at times than others. Therein lies the key. I have been in a part of the world where even though bullets were, for a time, king, an ounce of gold could have bought enough stuff based in local debased currency to feed a small village for a week. It has its uses now and then. I know you know this. We enjoy our debates here, but somehow I think we all know that we do this to pass the time. Waiting for the BIG ONE. That's the REAL game. Yes, gold is a beautiful, magical, but sometimes impractical substance. But we find ways to give it a lustre of its own. Besides, a potato would look ludicrous stamped .999 Fine.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 06:42
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold up a nickle and Silver UNCH...Mornin Tort!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 06:21
Waite wworden@together.net>(wworden@together.net):
RJ: You're the best thing to happen to this site since I started reading it. You have a reasoned and rational approach and an obvious store of
experience. Please continue your postings. ( I have only one small criticism: your use of it's in place of its. Its is analagous to his and her ( the possessive ) whereas it's means it is. The misuse of it's and its is my pet peeve. )


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 02:47
tanami @platinum>(@platinum):
Mike, interesting point about the Russians, yeltsin did attempt
to co-opt the stock pile a while back as security for an IMF
loan, which made me think there must be something there, but
now am not so sure, curious lack of public hard info
on level of russian stockpile.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 02:45
tanami @theunknown>(@theunknown):
Mike, interesting point about the Russians, yeltsin did attempt
to co-opt the stock pile a while back as security for an IMF
loan, which made me think there must be something there, but
now am not so sure, curious lack of public hard info
on level of russian stockpile.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 02:38
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
Mike: I agree - it doesn't add up. One alternative explaination to the
loan is the Debeer's example. Russia has alot of dealing with Debeer's -
I think they just signed a diamond contract, late '96 or a couple of
months before they stopped shipping PA. I see alot of simularities
between diamonds and Palladium. Who knows - there is something bigger
going on here. Maybe someone from Debeer's introduced two friends to
each other at one of these meetings. These are really really small
circles of friends. I'll bet the S. African mining crowd it isn't to
different from the texas oil crowd.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 02:05
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
RJ: Your essay was topnotch and covered things that needed to be said. Perhaps I missed it but I think you inadvertantly overlooked one important and fundamental element of gold's allure. That is its historical capacity to carry wealth through time.

All of the points you made regarding gold and its relationship to these modern times are true. The evidence is before us and is inescapable. And yet this era of diminished function for the role of gold is still only trading inside the span of one lifetime. As you pointed out, the Egyptians carried on for some 2000 years. We, by contrast, ain't even out of the starting blocks.

Granted, the case for edible commodities and the physical capacity to protect them. Unfortunately, current events speak grimly to the need.

That you would earn your bread and beans via modern instruments of exchange is not unlike those who have only their personal time to offer in exchange. You will share a common problem. That is, how do we lay by our excess now, for a time when we no longer have the capacity for everyday commerce. Just as farmer is unable to rely on his excess production for latter day sustenance, a trader of paper would be equally disadvantaged when considering that longer term imponderable. Obviously, if we are unable to continue to keep the mice out of the grain and inflation out our paper, what is to be done about it?

While your assets are perhaps more manageable than the unconverted assets of a farmer, the end result is still the same. Each left to their own devices would lose value very quickly. At the same time, the skill set required to manage paper assets in the current world and that of tomorrow is probably beyond the capacity of most individuals. If that is a valid assumption; what safeguards would people likely choose as simple, historically effective stores of value. It seems to me that gold and other precious metals are the solution. By so saying, I am not attempting any silly argument that gold is the perfect store. As you have said, the last 20 years would give lie to it.

In order to avoid belaboring the point, gold it seems to me will always fill the need for transporting wealth through time. Given its physical size/unit of value and its universal appeal and acceptance, it has additional appeal as a vehicle for transporting value through distance as well. Refugees are seldom found to be carrying potatoes or dried fish as there primary store of value. Much of it resides in mom's gold jewelry.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 02:00
Arctic Spirit spirit@internorth.com>(spirit@internorth.com):
Has anyone heard of our now infamous Yellowknife -

'Bre-x Salting Crew' cap?

check it out at: http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html

and let us know what you think.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 01:57
Mike @>(@):
RUSSIAN STOCKPILES: Why would the Russians leave us in the dark if their Pa/pt stockpiles are drawing down to zero? So the price stays low and they can sell even the last ounces cheaply? This is not logical. We should be hearing about the depletion very long in advance to manipulate the price upward.

The only reason I can think of keeping the depletion secret is the desire to borrow against nonexisting stockpiles. Does anyone have any thoughts on this?


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 01:53
Lan Man Late Reply>(Late Reply):
Mooney ie COT #'s - They are from Steven Kaplans Gold Mining Outlook page at http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 01:43
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- Whatever a 'Chubby Feline' might be! Man, I HATE metaphorical BS that isn't fairly/universally understandable! And, so what that you've gained some 'property' in paper. Does that answer the questions I've asked? NOT! And you have explained exactly 0% rational in your postings of gold being dead for the rest of the year! Why would one speak thus! Rational is all we ask! Don't mind me if I'm seeming to be a BIT sceptical of your more pronounced announcements of golds 'movements'! Besides, I trade my OWN rules any way. Also, I find the 'pro-creating with your own cousin' mentality type of comment to be more of a 'governmental' type of response than a 'real' trader! Pardon ME if I DON'T TRUST YOU!!!!!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 01:35
kuton thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):

ET: Assuming the metals do move in a 'pack' - I would reach the same
conclusion. But, I'm not willing to assume that yet.

RJ: non-sequitur? I found sequitur after looking in 4 online dictionaries. Is this the definition you wanted?

Main Entry: se∑qui∑tur
Pronunciation: 'se-kw&-t&r, -tur
Function: noun
Etymology: Latin, it follows, 3d person singular present indicative of sequi to follow --
more
at SUE
Date: 1836
: the conclusion of an inference

If so, what are you saying?

I just wasted 15 minutes writting a response to RJ's posts - then I
deleted it.

The PL/PA market responsed very well to the increase in margin
requirements today - IMHO. I'm still of the belief that the Russians or
the Tiger fund are not going to sell any white metals at discounts to
today's price. Which means the Dec contracts are really cheap.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 01:23
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70hr.gif


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 01:21
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
YO Slick - yours in not a new augment. For those with a post apocalypse, down in the bomb shelter, procreating with your cousin mentality, I have no more reply. Can anyone put forth a compelling reason to treat gold for anything other than what it is? I tell you what, if it all fails and you are right, when you hear me pounding at your shelter door, donít let me in......................agggghhhhghghghghhg.......


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 01:17
Mike @>(@):
CREDIT FUELS BANKRUPTCIES:
http://cnnfn.com/hotstories/economy/9706/09/bankruptcies/
Note: most bankrupts are very satisfied with the bankruptcy laws


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 01:11
slick goldbug@windycity>(goldbug@windycity):
RJ.. you mention that you like paper! Well the Germans liked the MARK
post WW-I,they needed millions of marks to buy a loaf of
bread. Also, the Russians and other East European countries who relied
on the Ruble will certainly say different today. The point I want to make, is that the paper currency of a country is only as good as the government printing it. If the government is corrupt and society at large
is defunct, the paper will be worthless and history repeats itself
again and again. Whereas, gold and other commodities have always
carried value, even for Germans and Russians. If you don't believe that
you can always ask them!! Besides,paper can always be called in by
a government and say tomorrow your 100 dollar bill will be a brand new
yellow 1 dollar bill.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 00:55
Westboy @RJ>(@RJ):
RJ: Even though I do not adhere to your viewpoints, nonetheless, I still enjoy reading your posts.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 00:53
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
A final thought for the evening, As no man is an island, no commodity exists in isolation.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 00:44
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
For those of you that haven't figured it out yet, I trade metals for a living. I sell a lot of gold for delivery, but it is those who yearn for profits that receive a majority of my attention.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 00:36
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
MR BEAR -- I WOULDN'T BE A BIT SURPRISED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 00:35
RJ Here we go>(Here we go):
Eldorado - It's a pleasure to have well thought and succinct arguments put forth. So now the time has come to drop the other shoe. I do not believe that the Fat Cats, Industrialists, and bankers will bring a fall. I know this will not sit well with this august group but it needed to be said. It is precisely the mentioned chubby felines that have the most to loose! Will it last forever? The longest culture in history was the Egyptians and they lasted a mere 2000 years. All societies will pass. I do agree that the world today is a house of cards, but it is a house that is in every manís best interest to stand, and no manís to fall. I am however protected against unexpected gusts or the mysterious sirocco that takes our tents before we wake. In the meantime, I will accumulate lots-o-these paper instruments of debt. Amazing as it seems, it was these very same pieces of paper that bought my lunch today, and paid for this computer, and pays the mortgage, and the car, and the gas, andÖÖ. Well, you get the idea. Accumulation of paper today to trade for the commodities of the day and the invest for the future is the wisest way to protect oneself. But accepting you argument, arenít there many other commodities in which more uses could be made? Before I am hammered by the rest ( I knew this would elevate some dander ) , I love gold, I own gold, and as the atheist once said, I donít believe in God, but Iím not going to tell Him that.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 00:19
Eldorado @the system>(@the system):
RJ -- Your argument has some merit, but is inherently full of holes! Do you not know that the metals ARE the historical currencies? Do you not know that this debt based pyramid is VERY top heavy? Do you not know that this paper BS is but an aberation? Perhaps you should tell us what you DO know! I know that the metals WILL BE THE common tradeable commodity. Everyone won't need a particular caliber of bullet, a loaf of bread, a cow, or a silo or grain! But THE METALs will BE the common currency to acquire that which one needs. They'll be the way society picks its' ass odd the ground! I'm all for having the other basics on hand, but I also call the metals ONE of THOSE BASICS!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 00:15
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
After reading RJ's articulate and very insightful remarks I find myself speechless for the time being.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 00:11
ET top@mountain>(top@mountain):
FYI,
just created these charts of the S&P500/Gold ratio and S&P500/Platinum ratio. Now I'm no guru here but the S&P500/pt looks way past it's top. Since the precious metals group seems to move as a 'pack' gold can't be very far behind. In terms of gold the S&P tide seems to be turning.

Any comments


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 00:10
Mooney @Ted>(@Ted):
If gourmet meals, whale-watching, dog walkin', star gazing, boating on the Ocean, boozin', snoozin' and gardening ain't the life of Reilly, ( with occasional letter wriing to friends ) , I don't know what is!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 00:10
RJ I'm just getting warmed up>(I'm just getting warmed up):
Steve Puetz - Please quote me accurately. I said that Inflation is essentially a twentieth century phenomenon, not just. Comparing todayís global economy with that of China in a bygone era is a non-sequitur. In fact, at no time in history has there been anything remotely resembling the global economy of the 1990s. As for store of value, please refer to my essay or do the math yourself. If your numbers add up differently, please present them. As for independence from monetary promise, you are absolutely correct. Gold definitely has a minor place in ones portfolio. However, for most people, the thinking stops there. Conceding your points of perishability, gold is still only worth what someone will give you for it. Is it not then held hostage to exchange having no fundamental uses of itís own? Can you dig with it? Can you chop with it? Can you bring down a Wildebeest? All the gold in the would wonít buy you glass of water in the Kalahari. The inherent fallacy in gold protecting you in times of economic collapse is plain. As the US economy goes, so goes the world. Who would you have step forth to trade needed commodities for one that has no fundamental use? As for rot, some say that is what has happened to my brain.


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 00:10
cherokee @edge-of-ionosphere>(@edge-of-ionosphere):
big trader?

not to worry--his hide hangs quite un-ceremoniously next
to those of the skunk and muskrat genre.
the scalp was of the bald variety, and made an arm-pit
warmer for one of earls' squaws!

cherokee!; ) hanger-of-worthless-hides!


Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 00:05
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore):
If one can redeem a baggage claim check for luggage what can
a Federal Reserve Note be redeemed for?



Date: Tue Jun 10 1997 00:05
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- If I may comment! You have been looking only at the time of the 'abberation' of paper. Do you see not further out, or before? How long do you really expect this debt based paper currency system to reign? Perhaps it'll continue forever? RIGHT! The metals have been the ONLY historically correct currency. SO WHAT if the debt based system we have today has distorted that 'equation'. You, apparently, do not see the frailties existent in this system. I will not ask why that should be the case. I will however ask of you what you DO see in the system that might keep it going! IF/when this paper house conmes down, do you not see a value in an easily tradeable commodity? Not everyone is going to want a loaf of bread! Let me place the emphasis on EASILY! And I might add that 'easily' comes from being 'known-as-tradable' Metals are nice in that. They don't require care and they don't require much room. Can you say the same about a cow, or a silo of grain? And everyone won't need your caliber of bullet. The metals are the ONLY logical currency when all else ( paper ) has been found faultful! Without them, society will have a VERY hard time picking its ass off the ground! I'm not saying that should that day come, that having food, guns, ammo, etc won't be most important%2


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:49
Rubin Rubin@net.com>(Rubin@net.com):
I wish to declare that July 1st will become
National Buy an Ounce of Gold Day.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:39
RSA resource@sentex.net>(resource@sentex.net):
Hello Folks, I don't post here often but did at the bottom of the platinum market late last year to prompt you to my PGE report.

You may want to have a look at Phoenix Gold, PHO on Vancouver, a hidden
gem that could soar in this platinum market. I am also now picking nickel to rise significantly. The strike at Inco will be a long one. Bet on it. A few more ounzes of platinum production will be gone as well.

I have been very successful at picking market bottoms in mining stocks
and metals. Maybe I'm just lucky, perhaps you want to follow my luck? Last year, I stated, that the Sumitomo affair has caused a bottom in copper and it would rebound. My two junior copper picks soared, Western Copper from $1.15 to $4.05 and Corner Bay $0.70 to $1.32.

In November 1996 I wrote a special report on platinum that it was at a
bottom and the time to buy is now. This is a piece from my report on a few things mentioned about Russia

Russia is in shambles and the mining industry is half of what it used to
be. Miners are working months without getting paid. Equipment is outdated
and in need of repair. A huge bureaucracy, political fighting and organized crime all add to the problem.................... Most likely Russia is almost out of platinum, just as they are gold. It could be this year or perhaps next that Russian sales will likely fall off. This alone could cause platinum to explode upwards.

With platinum soaring needless to say our platinum plays heve done very
well except one unknown yet, Phoenix Gold, PHO on Vancouver. I think this
could soon change because PHO has an excellent platinum property and I just talked to them on June 7th and they will begin drilling in about 10 days. I originally thought PHO would get on the property last year but they didn't raise the $$ in time. As it turns out it looks like this was a blessing considering todays hot platinum market

The property was held private since Newmont was forced to give it up in
the 1980s despite excellent drill results ( I bet they wish they had it now ) .The property was just moved into PHO in 1996. If platinum is still up or higher as I expect when PHO releases platinum drill results this stock could soar. It is just trading around $0.40 ( little downside risk ) and has a nice silver property among others. You can view my platinum report and more about
PHO at my website http://www.sentex.net/~resource

Call Dick Lonsdale at PHO 604-689-9960 Fax 604-684-3499

Good luck to all and don't forget to get a position in the nickel market



Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:38
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
RJ: You are wrong on may counts. 1st -- Inflation isn't just a 20th century phenomena. The first great paper inflation occurred in China about 1000 years ago, and it ended with a massive economic collapse. 2nd- Gold is a store-of-value. 3rd -- It can be sub-divided. 4th -- It does not rot. 5th -- It does not burn. 6th -- It does not depend on someone else's monetary promise. That is, gold has many qualities that other commodities and other monies do not posess. In an era of increasing defaults ( world-wide ) , the monetary safety of gold seems, not only preferable, but most prudent.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:35
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
Steve Puetz- the phone # they give is 888-639-7587... I try to buy coins that have a fundamental reason to rise in value because they are genuinely rare coins. My thuinking is that under your scenario, everything will go down, nothing will be exempt. But items that are scarce now, will always be scarce, so in relative terms, the intrinsic value will be similar. Just like the Mona Lisa, in the depression its relative value did not drop as the rarity kept the value constant.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:30
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
RJ- you are absolutely correct in your analysis, gold has been the worst possible investment over the last 17 years, no denying that. The demand side of the equation has not been there, and that is what a commodity needs to drive it up. Gold is driven by fear, fear of financial collapse. As long as that does not happen, I see gold trading very narrowly. A move like the late 70s is probably only likely if the financial markets tank, coupled with a threat of a major war, and commodity supply lines threatened. Enjoyed your writing!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:28
aurator @Arm....a.....geddin'..........Outa here!>(@Arm....a.....geddin'..........Outa here!):
Steve Puetz: What, no dry powder

Y2K I too work in computergeekland. Yes Y2k will be a problem for almost all large financial institutions and gov depts. It may well have an additive effect with MILLENIAL FEVER on crowd perception of stability of these institutions. This will ultimately be good for goldbugs.

What if I can't trust my bank statement/insurance/tax record/whatever

Ain't this rather like a scriptural armageddon? Doubt and uncertainty?

Who can ye trust? ( ingotwetrust )

Millenial fear and fever ought not be underestimated either. We do not have to wait until Y2K to start to see the effects of this. To those with eyes to see the effects are already visible.

If you can keep your head when all about are losing theirs
And blaming it on you......


( Rudy Kipling )


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:26
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Bob M.: I assume the flier you got was from Newsletter Systems, Inc.
What is the phone number it is showing to call to order Total Collapse? Some people have been having trouble getting a connection.
Buy gold coins for their monetary content only. Don't buy collectibles.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:23
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
Eldorado - I started to respond to your question regarding gold's outlook for 1997. I got sidetracked with the below perspective. I'll get to what's ahead for this year sometime this week. Thanks for your patience.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:19
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Paper Hanger -- I DO buy paper! Books, magazines, printer paper, newspapers, napkins, paper towels and toilet tissue. Is there something ELSE?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:19
RJ Where for art thou, Gold?>(Where for art thou, Gold?):
The following may raise a few hairs. I welcome discourse.

First, letís ask the most basic. What good is gold? You canít live in it. You canít drive it. You canít eat it. What good is it? The answer is obvious to all; gold is valuable because people think it is. Gold is the IDEA of wealth and, as such, itís perceived value varies widely with economic conditions.

Many like to talk about the historical power of gold to hold itís value. This leaves me a bit befuddled. For centuries gold was the same price, itís value did not change. Inflation was nonexistent so the value of other commodities was also very stable. Inflation is essentially a twentieth century phenomenon, and there have been times throughout this century when gold appeared to be a hedge against rising costs, although this appearance is deceptive.

There are two aspects of gold we should remember. First, it can be found in almost any spot on earth, itís not that rare. Second, it is mined for accumulation. An entire mountain of gold resides in bank vaults throughout the world, therefore, gold is becoming less rare with each passing day. If worldwide gold production stopped today, we would have enough gold for industrial uses to last 30 years - and yes, I am including jewelry in industrial usage. Contrast this with PGMs - approximately 2 years and found in basically two places on earth, and silver - approximately 4 - 5 years supply.

Now, lets call a spade a spade. Viewed in inflation adjusted dollars, any gold purchased in the last 18 years is now worth less than what you paid for it. This is undeniable. Not only has it failed to keep ahead of inflation but in inflation adjusted dollars, we are near historic lows. There are many who still cling to the belief that their gold is giving them protection from inflation and, like people who believe OJ is innocent, please donít confuse them with the facts, theyíve made up their minds. By definition, a commodity can never be an inflation hedge. The price of any commodity may rise during times of inflation but inevitably the price falls to previous levels, while the currency it represents stays inflated.

There are those who will cry, Unfair! Why, in 1900 you could buy a suit for an ounce of gold, and today you can still buy a suit for that same ounce! Anyone that canít see the inherent flaw in that argument, bought the vest and got the sleeves for free. The problem with these apocryphal little ditties is that they are a shortcut to actually thinking.

Lets transport ourselves to 1980 and ask the question that begs to be asked: Would you rather have I ounce of gold or $463? I am using the low that year to be kind as higher numbers only make the picture worse. On a dollar for dollar basis, at $344 gold today, the answer is obvious, take the cash. Unfair you say? $463 too high? OK letís take the average low for gold from 1977 forward, $327. The answer is still obvious. That once ounce of gold is still barely worth less today than at almost anytime in the last two decades. When we then take the necessary step of adjusting these dollars for inflation ( assuming 4% annually, which we all know is substantially lower than actual inflation over the last 20 years. ) , the results are staggering. The dollars you paid for that gold are worth less than half of what they were worth in 1980. In real dollars your $327 is now worth $137! So in order to just break even, you would have had to buy your gold prior to 1978 at the low and held it until now. Thatís not an investment, thatís a sieve. Thatís not protection, thatís robbery.

The modern gold market can really only be traced to 1974 when once again, private citizens could own gold. After a few years to shake things out, and occasion rises, the price of gold has settled at itís current levels, slightly lower than itís modern average. As I stated previously, the average low in gold in the last 20 years was $327 ( with an absolute low of $127 ) , the average high was $439 ( absolute high $825 midday, but who sold at that price? ) , with an average price of $383. These averages include the manic highs of 1979 - 1980. If we threw those numbers out the window, the picture is even worse. Remember, the dollars have been inflated forever.

Another expected argument: Yes, but all commodities rise and then fall. This is true, but I do not advocate the buying and holding of any commodity, as many do with gold. The key is to ride the rises and take the profits. What is the purpose of holding?

To debunk another popular reason touted for gold ownership, When the economic collapse finally comes, Iíll be able to trade my gold for a loaf of bread. I donít know if this is just naive or anyone actually believes, that in times of crisis, gold will buy food. If times are that bad, the only thing that will get bread is bullets. Would anyone trade their familyís food for gold? For that matter, would anyone trade their gun for gold?. For those of you still searching for an answer, please refer to the beginning of this essay.

Lacking an apocalyptic meltdown of worldwide monetary systems, gold will continue itís dismal performance. In times of true crisis, however, Iíd rather have a bushel of corn or a few potatoes.

True, there have been periods when gold has proven profitable, but certainly no more than any other commodity. Lets look at gold for what it truly is, itís pretty, itís shiny, and itís occasionally profitable.


RJD
June 1997


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:18
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
Steve Puetz- am reading your flier for your book that I received today in the mail. How do you feel about genuinely rare, high grade coins as to how they will fare under your scenario. An example would be low population high grade Morgan dollars. Thanks in advance


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:13
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Didn't Arch ( ie ) Crawford predict tomorrow as a watch day ( positive ) for gold?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:09
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Steve P. ( or anyone else ) : Where could one visiting Canada buy some Silver Maple Leafs. I believe I read ( I could be wrong ) they can purchased in certain banks


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:04
panda @zzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzz):
Good night all, perhaps tomorrow will show the real direction of the yellow metal?

George S. Cole -- Agreed that the volume on the mining shares was pretty pathetic today. Most shares seem to be at a half to a quarter of their 'normal' daily volume of a year+ ago. TVX used to trade 1 million shares a day on average.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:03
TED @mooney>(@mooney):
Mooney: Will do!...Novice:I'll be gettin back at you as I've been busy even though Mooney thinks I live the life of Reilly....what does Mooney know anyhow?...


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:56
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Miro: I find it interesting that costs associated with fixing Y2K must be expensed out immediately. I understand these costs will be tremendous.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:55
panda @>(@):
Earl -- DO NOT bring back that SS thread! It is like a vampire with a wooden stake driven through its heart. Do Not Remove The Wooden Stake!

In regards to the PA/PL 'paper' problem; I'm glad to see others are giving it quiet thought. It does have profound implications for ALL paper assets. The PA/PL fiasco will be an interesting 'test drive' for paper credibility. The extension of settlement times from two days to thirty? Do they really think the Russians will cough up the metal, just because some shorts need it? Somebody has someone by the short *****, and they haven't let go yet.

An even more obtuse concern would be this; Where would this leave the enviromental groups? Screaming about pollution, no doubt, along with calls for more government action. That could lead to some interesting possibilities. Whither the catalytic converter and oil companies, not to mention the chemical companies. Hmmmm, this thing could have legs.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:54
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Kid Silver: Here's a good mix:
$30,000 in silver coins ( purchase for silver content only )
$18,000 in gold coins ( purchase for gold content only )
$2,000 in December 1997 S&P 700 put options
-------
$50,000 total


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:52
Paper Hanger @eldon't>(@eldon't):
Eldon't: Get a life and buy some paper! Hi to Earlie


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:50
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Fundy - You seem to be enjoying the excellent view of an extremely 'high tide'. Have you ever thought about how different your outlook might become when the extreme 'low tide' sets in?
Auroelf - Granted we must all look at the many varied opinions we can gather from 'experts' around the world and then decide which is the 'grain' and which is the 'chaff'. It just seemed to me last night that you were being mesmerized by a spin doctor who specialises in dross. There will always be those who can make the masses believe that 'this time things are different' and that the Emperor is wearing a beautiful suit. The fact that the suit is made of invisible thread will eventually become apparent to all, even the deluded spin doctor himself.
Steve Puetz - You just may have a point there! More than likely that scenario will take about ten-fifteen years until completion, however, and until then I would be happy to see even 20-1 in the next lustrum! ( I can hear the mad scramble for the dictionary's right now! )
Arden- Right On Bro'! ( Also - Good Luck on the move! )
APH - Consistent and usually right!
Korondy - Where ya been?
George - We're waiting with you til the Fall!
bw - Good Read.
Earl - Those statistics are scary and deserve repeating! Re: MSFT versus the big 3 autos: Right now it would require 11
consecutive years of 20% earnings gains for Microsoft's P/E to
match that of these auto stocks. Comparing revenue, those 3 auto
companies sell $370 billion in product a year, or 35 times
Microsoft's $10.5 billion. Yet Microsoft stock is valued at more
than 1.4 times *all* three auto stocks *put together*.
Gene - Good try but a little too wild.
NotaGoldbug - Your opposing view is at least worth reading compared to some of the B.S. that we have seen.
Ted and Front - Stop trying to make everyone jealous with your 'Life of Reilly' stories! :- )


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:42
QT @>(@):
Vronsky, chill. One advert in the morning and one in the evening is enough. WE ALL check your site on a regular basis anyway. AND EARL,,, I remember buying my way into the cinema, the movies as they were called in those days, with a silver quarter of a dollar. Eat a bag of popcorn I paid a silver dime for. BUT that was a couple years back now. I can't place anything between the dim of these distant memories, and the kitco-now we live in, where I settled, bartered, tendered, or otherwise made good a trade with precious. It is not the curant mode of exchange in cultures of the western world. NOT AT THE MOMENT.
But since things have a way of changing, surprise, surprise, who knows, the day of the dear darlings might yet flourish once again. In the mean time let us not taint the virtue of these sisters with an association to their baser cousin, that ba'dard of the parchment, the Guttenbergers evil spawn, PAPER TENDER. How then can value be attached to their beauty, their rarity, if not with CASH? How can their desirability be measured if not against the arbitration of the collective confidence, you may ask? How indeed. Commerce makes for such strange pillow fellows does it not?
The very foundation of the familiar, the pavement stones of our daily marketplace, the fact of a bank draft, they are all and each calculated in units of currency based on confidence. Your exchanges in every aspect of commercial intercourse with purveyors hawking there beyond the bookjack at your door, they are all settled in CASH. CASH is still king. It enjoys such esteem that even here, in a sanctuary beyond the psychology of the believing mob, it is used as a unit of measure for determining the value of the four sisters.
I find this lacking in clarity. Why condemn the master who allows us such cynicism? CASH is the ruler of this house of dreams and as much as I esteem the little darlings, that every dog has his day, and this too shall pass, that this CASH reality we live in provides the foundation to our relationship to the little darlings. Let us not pretend ottherwise. T'would be less a jest than we are all worthy of.
Mind you my kitco kin, the days of currency are numbered, but then so too, I hope, the percieved relativity between the four sisters and cousin CASH.
If WE cannot hold them to be sacred, how can we expect others to?
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// .
PS My only fear for '98 = colesterol and backwardation.
Enjoy.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:39
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Kid Silver -- Your name says it! Silver! Lots of it and as inexpensively as it can be had! Unless you need to travel very light, that's the way to go for leverage. You MIGHT want to add a few yellow artifacts to it if you feel the need to travel with 'cash' of substance. Make sure it's identifiable as to what it is, and that it is fairly easily negotiable in case the 'rainy day' come upon us! IMHO.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:35
Re: Y2K Re: Y2K>(Re: Y2K):
Miro: Y2K will be a problem for some businesses ( probably govt. agencies .. Do I have to pay tax for the year 2000 since I didn't have any income in 1900 ) . Pretty good consulting gig for those having the skills and the interest in putting in some hours for some easy money ( a lot of helpless people/companies/govt. agencies out there ... )


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:30
Byron 1 Out Of 2 Ain't To Bad:>(1 Out Of 2 Ain't To Bad:):
The XAU Index poked its head over the 50 Days Moving Average Line. : )

The HUI Index ( American Gold Bugs Index ) did not cross the finish line. : (


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:29
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Earl -- Amen to that about the paper hangers!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:24
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Steve puetz -- Given a scenario of 8-1 vs 16-1, I'll take the 8-1. It'll be TWICE as good! But, regardless, in percentage terms, silver will beat gold hands down!!!!!!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:14
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
An additional thought and then its off to the wife's house. .... We really are engaged in world that has evolved to point where millions of bright, exceptional people find there intellectual expression in the design of paper instruments whose only purpose is to separate the 'unwashed' and unsophisticated from their hard won resources.

They produce nothing of value to society or to the greater good of mankind. Indeed, while they are capable individuals, by choice they lack the requisite skills to do so. They cannot wield a shovel and find gold, nor can they program a computer. The only skill they possess is the finely honed ability to convince the rest of mankind that what they say and what they do is truly important. I think not.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:07
Speed back from gold-eagle>(back from gold-eagle):
Vronsky: I just spent twenty minutes searching all over your site and the Captains for that info. I knew I'd seen it somewhere! Thanks.

Earl: No, not that, anything but that ss thread! I bought more silver today, does that count as action taken on 2 Down/2 to go? What happens to this latest surge if Tiger fund sells a million ounces of Platinum and the Russkies shake loose some dinero for their miners and crank up the production line? It seems to me that a roaring economy is the best bet for upward momentum in metals. A rising tide lifts all boats.

Fundy: I hope the DOW goes to 15,000 because those index funds buy mining stocks too. However, if the DOW goes back to 1000, my store of value, gold and silver, will soar.



Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:07
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Earl -- I've been reading the postings for the past couple days without commenting on anything. Most is old news and old dicussions re-hashed. But your most recent posting really brings to mind what BT has been saying/alluding to. At least the way I read them. Given the scenarios currently transpiring in the P metals, the paper and 'loans' on the gold and silver, and given ALL the other pertinent stuff that gets posted here, I really would not be a BIT surprised at the BT scenario being fulfilled! It's a scenario brought on by paper, and it will end with the end of the paper markets. I might add that the paper curency might very well end with it, or at least, nearby in time with it.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:04
Kid Silver _>(_):
Steve Puetz - Lets say I have $50,000 to invest.

In your opinion what would be the ideal portfolio?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:01
Miro Y2K not so OK>(Y2K not so OK):
LB: Iíve been lurking for a while and I also noticed a significant
absence of any consideration for what impact will Y2K factor have on
financial markets in coming years. Is it because the community does
not know about it or because we do not consider it as an issue?! Though
my master degree is in economics for the last 27 years I do computers
and my economic analysis skills are mostly gone but here are my 2 pennies
worth on Y2K.

I donít see an economic meltdown as some people predict it but I see
a significant difficulties. I work on Y2K problem and I can say that
a number of companies wonít be ready by year 2000. This will result in
disruption of economic activities, some companies wonít make it ( meaning
going out of business ) for some it will mean reduced revenues. We all
know what news like that do to the market ( e.g. Intel announcement
last week ) .

Y2K problem will start to impact P/L statements by the end of 98 because
accounting rules say that Y2K cost must be expensed instead of amortized
and because auditors auditing financial statements will be held
responsible for detecting and reporting errors and irregularities and
potential difficulties which may have an impact on company performance.
I believe this will be a significant trigger for reinforcing market
meltdown which is predicted to start sometimes in the next two years.

Just to complicated the whole issue, starting in 2001 you will see a
significant amount of litigation activities, class lawsuits, etc..
Litigation cost of Y2K is expected to exceed ( by a large factor ) the
cost of correcting the problem ( estimated to be around $600 billions
worldwide just for information systems not including things like
failing appliances, medical instrumentation, etc. ) . I think that this
will just prolong the bear market following the market collapse.

My question ( and the reason for my lurking ) is how to play this market.
My instinct goes along with many list members saying metals will
experience a significant growth because it may be the only stable
investment which may let you go back into collapsed market when itís at
its low.

Again, I know more about computer business than about market so this is
just MHO but my retirement from my job in computers ( I am extremely
tired of it ) depends on it.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:58
vronsky Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta>(Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta):
Virtual Eagleís eye view of global gold paradigm. Is it a plot to create a single world currency? Erudite & exhaustive analysis by Oracle of Alberta:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta604.html



Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:49
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Perhaps, its a function of my overburdened teeny tiny brain cells. So few in number that I am able to identify them by name ... but it still seems to me that Ted Butler's piece on Gold Eagle - Two Down, Two to go is so significant that it should warrant greater discussion among the assembled. If I understand it correctly, ( open to conjecture ) he is describing the destruction of formerly orderly markets as a result of wholesale application of the new 'paradigm'. ie paper is as important as product .... and besides we can create more paper than product.

I wouldn't expect handsprings over the revelation but IMO it is harbinger of things to come for the other two and the last I looked this was a gold/silver site.

Some would probably argue that the thinness of the PGM market made it susceptible to such. I would argue that the number of players are always commensurate to the market involved and, more, since the gold market has such heavy infiltration of politically motivated influences, that the we are still unable to guage the true depth of the potential or grasp the full impact of what is/may/likely to happen. It may be even more devastating ... and profitable for us. ( I am ashamed to say that, forgive me ) .... If I am the only one who thinks its significant, then lets open the SS thread again.



Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:47
TED @secondwind>(@secondwind):
The Dollar continues it's slide against the Yen and EBN Gold up .50...
Tort: Where is Blonde these days?...and CHEER UP!...


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:45
vronsky FINANCIAL FIGHT OF THE CENTURY: IBM vs HOMESTAKE MINING>(FINANCIAL FIGHT OF THE CENTURY: IBM vs HOMESTAKE MINING):
Fundy, Speed et al: THIS WAS POSTED AT KITCO THREE MONTHS AGO

Date: Thu Mar 13 1997 12:34
vronsky ( POP QUIZ - WHICH HAD BETTER HISTORICAL RESULTS: IBM OR HM ) :

HERE IS ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS: From January 1959 to January 1995 ( 36 years ) , which stock performed the best: IBM or Homestake Mining ( HM ) ? How come such a dumb question? Because the answer was so surprising to make me, that I believe it will also be to most people.

Homestake Mining was the WINNER! It appreciated at a compound annual rate of 6.5%, while IBM came in at a mere 4.5%. The Dow Industrials during the same period was about 5.25%.

I found this quote in my financial readings about a year ago, and just ran across it again today. Interestingly, it makes one think about Wall Street's incesstant carping AND CANTING that common stocks are a better long-term hedge against inflation. My Aunt-Fanny they are! It is NOT just a simple 2.0% per year that HM outperformed IBM for the 36-year period, BUT THAT HM DID 44% PER YEAR BETTER THAN BIG-BLUE!

Who sez dem gold stocks ain't better den common stocks?!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:29
Speed @home>(@home):
Fundy: I'm most interested in your #1 point: That the government intervened to prop up the gold price at $20. What facts or reasoning do you offer to support such a claim?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:26
Tortfeasor Blonde joke of the evening>(Blonde joke of the evening):
Here's for Blonde and all others of the lighter colored hair.

On a plane bound for New York the flight attendant approached a
blonde sitting in the first class section and requested that she
move to coach since she did not have a first class ticket. The
blonde replied, I'm blonde, I'm beautiful, I'm going to New York,
and I'm not moving. Not wanting to argue with a customer the
flight attendant asked the co-pilot to speak with her. He went
to talk with the woman asking her to please move out of the first
class section. Again, the blonde replied, I'm blonde, I'm
beautiful, I'm going to New York, and I'm not moving. The
co-pilot returned to the cockpit and asked the captain what he
should do. The captain said, I'm married to a blonde, and I
know how to handle this. He went to the first class section
and whispered in the blonde's ear. She immediately jumped up and
ran to the coach section mumbling to herself, Why didn't
anyone just say so. Surprised, the flight attendant and the
co-pilot asked what he said to her that finally convinced her to
move from her seat. He said, I told her the first class section
wasn't going to New York.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:24
Noncontributing Lurker @earl>(@earl):
HI EARL!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:24
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Arctic Spirit: ( I dint look this time ) .... I think we get the idea. Now. You owe each of us here a genuine original of that hat. OK? ..... ( :- ) )


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:21
vronsky GOLD: AN INVISIBLE BULL MARKET?>(GOLD: AN INVISIBLE BULL MARKET?):
One of US best-known Analysts in last 20 years, James Dines, shares bullish report on Platinum & Palladium - & their impact on Gold. He likes Stillwater Mining. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html



Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:19
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
WW @18:27: How much forward selling is too much? ... Any at all is too much! ... ( :- ) )


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:19
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Speed: I bought gold at an average price of $295. I have never thought that the markets always outperformed gold let alone stated that. My 2 points are as follows. 1 ) with regard to Vronsky's comment that the current market looks like 1929-1935. Goldbug's have been told that gold shares were good investments during the '30's. Few know that the good investment was the result of Gov intervention to keep the price up at $20. This was about an average pay for a month. Anyone buying gold must keep in mind that the chances of the US Gov doing this sort of thing again are based in today's reality not that of 60 years ago. 2 ) Gold has been declining from $ 850 to about $350 while $850 worth of DOW about 20 years ago is now worth over $ 3000. Sure many people did not pay that for gold. Put the price at $400 and the argument remains the same. The DOW was much better investment and remains so. I understand that some might think that $850 was a long time ago. Does anyone think that the $1000 or 5000 or $ 20,000 projections are based on the current $350 gold?
While we can cant the virtues of gold here daily the fact remains it has been a terrible investment for the last 2 decades. You may be an trader and many others as well. Others are investors thinking about the store of value myth of gold and the hedge against inflation myth. Anyone who is a trader might as well be trading nickel and the perceived and promoted virtues of gold are irrelevant I agree.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:18
Arctic Spirit spirit@internorth.com>(spirit@internorth.com):
As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html






Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:17
Tortfeasor Over and out>(Over and out):
Ted, received your red hot missle. Responded with scud of my own.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:12
TED @forgetfullness>(@forgetfullness):
Forgot to say that EBN Gold is up .60...


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:10
TED @exhaustion>(@exhaustion):
Tort: Ya got an incommin missile....and I'm headed fer the easy chair!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:57
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Arden: Good to see you back. ..... More, I heartily concur with your opinion on the piece by Ted Butler. *Absolutely*, must reading for those who have not. Ted's understanding of the paper metal business is a treasure for those of us who know of it but lack the details. And the devil is in the details, as they say.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:51
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
LB: A newsletter called Remnant Review had a good article on the Y2K problem. I don't have the address or phone number. Maybe someone else out there can help you with that.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:48
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
BW: Size of U.S. stock market is $8 trillion as measured by Wilshire 5000 Index. However, if you include all stocks ( including unlisted ones ) , the Federal Reserve estimates the U.S. stock market now has a market value of about $11 trillion. You are correct, the market is much more over-valued now than it was in either 1929 or 1987.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:44
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Mooney: 16-to-1 gold-to-silver price ratio was mostly established by the free markets when supply stood at a 1-to-16 ratio. Over the past century, however, newly-mined silver has been harder to come by than gold. In recent years, the supply of gold-to-silver has dropped to 1-to-8. That suggests than when monetary demand re-emerges for the precious metals, the gold-to-silver price ratio will fall below the 16-to-1 ratio of a century earlier.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:39
TED @front>(@front):
Front ( 15:58 ) The gun is loaded and I'm goin after the case of BLUE....
Where do you live that you can be out on the water at this time of year


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:27
arden ardengold@msn.com>(ardengold@msn.com):
Comex warehouse gold stocks down today by 7,807 oz to 967,026 oz.

Comex open interest as of yesterday was 159,865 contracts.

ELIGIBLE Comex gold stocks are 285,223 oz to cover the comex open interest. This leaves a 'strong' 1.78 oz of gold available to be delivered for each 100 oz contract!! Read the excellent article 'Two Down and Two To Go on Gold Eagle. It is only a matter of time!

Hi folks, sorry I haven't been here for awhile. I had the fortune of selling my house within three weeks of listing it and buying another within a week and then finding out the the phone company couldn't get me a line for two weeks! Talk about going thru Kitco withdrawal!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:24
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
World shattering metals report gives reason for Platinum & Palladium strength. It proves why same explosive price rise in Gold & Silver will occur - Please RELOAD Digest page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:23
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
George Cole: I agree with the SP puts. Unfortunately, this is a tax deferred account and cannot do likewise.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:13
George S. Cole misc.>(misc.):
APH: Your negative short-term outlook probably is correct. This XAU rally just doesn't feel right. Low volume rallies are always suspect.

Earl: I do not have any money in Rydex Ursa. I do hope to purchase some S & P 500 puts this summer to profit from the big drop I expect in the fall.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:04
vronsky Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near>(Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near):
Market maven George S. Cole believes secular market reversals are near: Financials DOWN & Hard Assets UP, perhaps reminiscent of 1930s & 1970s. Cole Market Insights - Click RELOAD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html




Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 19:56
Byron @ Overnight:>(@ Overnight:):
Dollar weaker overnight. See http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/flash.cgi Scroll down an click on Globex Flash Page for overnight numbers.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 19:29
LB y2k problem>(y2k problem):
I have not seen anyone discussing the y2k problem and it's possible influance on the financial markets. Any opinnions?
Thanks


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 19:27
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
Scenario for $5000 gold and Dow 2000

Under the Clinton Administration, the United States government secretly sold the strategic oil reserve to raise money. Later, to cover up, the United States publicly sold the reserve to bring down the price of gasoline but the price of oil didn't go down because the strategic oil reserve had been sold previously.

After World War II the United States asked Switzerland for the gold confiscated from those held in Germany in the concentration camps. It was to be given back to survivors and relatives. Switzerland refused. Case closed until recently when Clinton asked for the gold again. He did not ask for the money value to return to the survivors and heirs of the holocaust victims; he asked for the gold and the United States would receive the gold and pay out cash. Why did the United States need the gold. Were the victims of the holocaust and their heirs being used, as an excuse to attain desperately needed gold reserves?

If the government could secretly sell something as important as the strategic oil reserve, or spend the funds in the Social Security Trust Fund, it is not a stretch of the imagination to suspect that the government could sell secretly its gold reserves. It is rich. Sell the gold secretly and issue paper gold backed by gold that has been sold previously. In fact, based on the world governments' modus operandi I would be far most surprised if most governments had gold reserves. They would be going against the spirit of their own operations if they kept their gold reserves in tact. Why should world governments act underhandedly in most matters but act honestly when it came to gold? The assumption of presently existing government gold reserves is illogical.

Recently German leaders wished to re-value the worth of their gold reserves. There was a lot of commotion and then the German Government decided not to revalue their gold reserves. Could it be possible that when the German leaders could not find those gold reserves when they looked for them.

Recently the United States and other countries have tried to pressure Switzerland to sell its gold reserves onto the world gold market. Why should anyone care? Why Switzerland? Could Switzerland be the last government to hold gold reserves? Could there be no more gold to meet the demand for the physical delivery of gold?

Could a similar scenario have occurred recently with Platinum and Palladium?

Of the large gold sales by Central banks how many have involved the delivery of physical gold?

Could the so-called gold reserves be stated realistically as a MINUS number.

Will the United States again make the ownership of gold illegal?

Will the United States seize the production of U.S. gold mines by buying up produced gold at a set unrealistic price?

IS THERE ANY GOLD IN RESERVE ANYWHERE?








Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 19:13
Oceanographer Fundy>(Fundy):

Fundy: How are the tides Today


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 19:09
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
I believe that the 280/300 will be seen soon in the gold markets.. It appears
that the support will give way.. Weak longs have entered this market because
of the rise in palladium and platinum.. And this has set up the possibility of
stops being set off should the market start to break. There is no inflation,
crude oil has dropped and so has the grains.. Personally I would sell rallies
at this juncture or buy puts..

This is obviously just my personal opinion but I believe the risk/reward for the
longs is more risk..




Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:46
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Hey Bartman ... good job with the chart ( adding gold and silver ) .


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:44
panda @>(@):
JDM -- The story is apparently true. It was reported some time ago in the WSJ or Barrons'. I remember reading the articles, there were several appearing regarding the circa 1900 -193X date stamps on ingots out of the USSR. There were also stories about the ingots being .9X fine gold as opposed to the .999+ fine gold that is todays standard. It does indeed sound like the bottom of the barrel is being scraped.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:39
Jack Pomboy Capital (Financial Times, also)>(Pomboy Capital (Financial Times, also)):

Earl: ( 17:40 ) Great bit of info, relative to Microsoft's
value versus the Big 3, but a sorry state of afairs.
Hope that Gates buys the PM's with some of the profit.
Panda: Pomboy Capital Corp. Letter also in the US
( Western ) edition of Financial Times. He feels that CB's
made about $500 million on sales and leasing, but lost
$170 billion because of the present gold price. He uses
$500 gold to arrive at the $170 billion loss, where he
figures gold price would have been without CB
interference.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:35
yellowdog @APH>(@APH):
APH: Thank you for your response. I wish you well in your trading.:- )


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:30
Speed @work>(@work):
Fundy: If you bought gold at 850, you were incredibly unlucky. It only sold for that price for about 10 minutes. The dow peaked in 1929 at about 385 and didn't achieve that level again until the 1950's. During that time, gold went from $20 to $35 per oz., a 75% gain. My charts are at home so these numbers are from memory ( read that unguaranteed ; ) ) .Many companies went bankrupt during the 1930's and their stock became worthless. I understand opportunity costs, but am unclear as to your point. We can point to periods in history where stocks out performed all other assets, but be careful about the claims that the market has always outperformed gold. It hasn't. Good stock traders make money, just like good metals traders make money. Most of us here are traders, not investors. I fully intend to sell my gold and silver when the price is right. I also trade mutual funds and stocks, so if you're looking for a gold ideologue, I'm not it. I guess my point is that I don't know anyone who buys and holds for 70 years, so these examples while interesting are not realistic.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:27
WW @New England>(@New England):
The gold and silver mkts are acting peculiar and like they are under compression. Dollar up strong economy friday/EMU and today weak does this mean weak economy and coincidentally bonds weak. The BOYS have so many balls to juggle maybe things will start to go our way. Newsletters and opines give the 1929 vision look possible. With the credit based expansion we have had things have to reverse soon.
Gold and gold stks should zoom when problems hit as they have not risen with equity rise.

What effect will forward selling by gold equities have in a gold bull. Ques? How much hedging is too much?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:23
APH }}}}}}}}}}}}}}{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{>(}}}}}}}}}}}}}}{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{):
Yellowdog - Nothing has changed other than timing. I'm out of my XAU puts giving back about half of my profits. The rally today is very suspect due to the lack of follow though of the gold funds, FSAGX was down while the XAU had a decent rally not a good omen for the xau, Xau could go as high as 105 tomorrow, aclose above 105 with a strong day up in FSAGX I would start reconsidering. Along with the negative look of xau vs. fsagx.... Aug. Gold is hitting resistance at the down trend line drawn from the 5/12 highs and looks like it wants to go down under 340 which would be a nice finish to a downward wedge.
Bottom line still looking for XAU to trade below 97, front month gold down close to 336 and Aug gold to trade under 340.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:05
Stargazer @watching and waiting>(@watching and waiting):
The day of reckoning is at hand. may your decisions be wise.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:03
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Speed: I'm waiting for your mathematical help. If I bought gold at 850 I would have about $350 now. How much would I have if I bought gold when it was $20 and at the same time bought $20 worth of the DOW? A Fourty dollar investment in 1930? What do you think about the concept of opportunity costs?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 17:49
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
George Cole: Are you devoting any personal resources to bear funds? ie Rydex Ursa or a similar vehicle? I have some funds available in a SEP but am torn between putting it on the gold table or betting against the general market. I know gold and gold funds will perform very well but a sharp drop in general equities could produce an equally sharp short term gain in a bear fund as well. The intent of course would be to hold the bear fund for a short term and then switch back into something PM related. Any thoughts?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 17:46
camelrights.org Leave Joe Alone>(Leave Joe Alone):

We will sue the appropriate Government Departments for
their crueal attacks on Joe the Camel and _____ gold
and silver if you join us. Please help us defend Joe


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 17:40
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Some interesting stuff from James Stack of Investech.

Over 92% of 4360 mutual funds have failed to match the 8.2% gain in the S&P 500 index in the intial 4 months of 1997. Over 93.6% underperformed the S&P 500 index over the past 12 months!

Re: MSFT versus the big 3 autos: Right now it would require 11 consecutive years of 20% earnings gains for Microsoft's P/E to match that of these auto stocks. Comparing revenue, those 3 auto companies sell $370 billion in product a year, or 35 times Microsoft's $10.5 billion. Yet Microsoft stock is valued at more than 1.4 times *all* three auto stocks *put together*.

I guess Mr. Stack will never understand. Will he? ..... ( :- ) )


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 17:36
George S. Cole stock market>(stock market):
BW: Very cogent observations on the U.S. stock market. Looks like it will go considerably higher, but once the top is in the aftermath will be ugly in the extreme. This is the primary reason I am so bullish on gold.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 17:16
bw us stocks:>(us stocks:):
This asset class of over 8 trillion dollars is the most visible manifestation of our once in a lifetime credit bubble. Almost every fundamental measure of stock value is at lows never seen in the history of this country. Of course this has been true for some time. Still the market goes up. The top could well be a ways off yet. But the higher we go the risker it gets. This is the message of the fundamentals. The risk in owning stocks is greater now than it has ever been in this country, including 1929. Sooner or later the top will be in and it will be apparent to many that it is time to sell. When that time comes who will be buying?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 16:48
Lurker 1 home>(home):

Does anyone know a refiner that will take 90% & 40% junk silver coins and melt it down into 999 bars. I can not find phone # or web pages on Johnson Mathey or Englehard.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 16:32
korondy Please@Reply.Here>(Please@Reply.Here):
Read Gold -- The Barbarous Relic -- Strikes Again by John Tompkins at http://www.talks.com/portfolio.html


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 16:12
George S. Cole gold stock rally>(gold stock rally):
Looks like I was a bit premature in writing off today's gold stock rally. XAU and HUI rallied towards the end of the day to post reasonably good gains. Low volume still troubles me though.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 16:11
yellowdog @--------->(@---------):
To: APH, Short Bull, any other TA person that thought XAU was going to mid 90's:
has anything happened yet to change your previous forecasts? might you give us an update?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 16:11
JDM jdmcclu@ibm.net>(jdmcclu@ibm.net):
When I went to pick up some 1-oz. Englehard bars at lunch today, the proprietor told me something very interesting. He said that last year one shipment of what was, I believe, 100 oz. platinum bars that came in from Russia had date stamps of 1938 on them. Sounds to me like they were digging pretty deep into the old stockpiles at that time. Anyone hear anything to confirm that story? TIA


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 16:03
Byron @ What!>(@ What!):
Alright, which one of you guys was buying the XAU at the close. Up 1.75 and counting. : )


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 16:02
George S. Cole gold stock rally>(gold stock rally):
Today's gold stock rally unimpressive. Low volume and not much upward movement. Doubt very much that a big move north in either bullion or stocks is imminent. July still looks like it will be a much better month than June for gold investors.

The overall market also may be due for a modest correction. Today's advance narrowly based with little small-cap or mid-cap participation. But the underlying bull trend should continue awhile longer.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 15:59
Arctic Spirit spirit@internorth.com>(spirit@internorth.com):
As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html





Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 15:59
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

TED:

What timing.... Just came in from Seadooin' and fishin' ....

A BLUE for regular work and a FOSTER's if you do the windows and dishes ( Mooney knows how much I hate them ) . A case if you get rid of this cat that's in heat !!!!!

TTFN


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 15:58
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

TED:

What timing.... Just came in from Seadooin' and fishin' ....

A BLUE for regular work and a FOSTER's if you do the windows and dishes ( Mooney knows how much I hate them ) . A case if you get rid of this cat's that in heat !!!!!

TTFN


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 15:41
Tortfeasor Thanks>(Thanks):
Bart, I like your new format which shows all the vitals at the head of this page.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 15:40
Tortfeasor Thanks>(Thanks):
Bart, I like your new format which shows all the vitals at the head of this page.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 14:22
Novice @Pa/Pl>(@Pa/Pl):
Bart: Thanks for information on the Russian Pa/Pl situation...


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 13:56
Bart Kitner (Kitco) bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com):
We've just put more news from today at http:///news.platinum.html about the Russian Pt/Pd situation.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 13:24
FrenchMan alcarriou@magic.fr>(alcarriou@magic.fr):
Paris Stock Exchange down 1.2% today:following NYSE before noon,Paris gained up to 1% before making a reversal at noon with 2% loss.Us Dollar also lost 1% against French Franc.
Why?Because the French minister of Economy and Finances,D. Strauss Kahn wants to report the signature of the monetary stability pact for EMU.Before signing anything concerning EMU,French Government wants to renegociate to introduce more social in the current monetary EMU.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 13:20
vronsky June 9, 1997 - PART V --Just How High Can A Bull Fly? >(June 9, 1997 - PART V --Just How High Can A Bull Fly? ):
McAlvanyís MELTDOWN OF 97 - Latest chapter: ďTHE U.S. STOCK MARKET: WILL 1997 BE THE YEAR OF THE DEATH PLUNGE?Ē CLICK RELOAD at Gold Digest section:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 13:10
REB na>(na):
WHAT is happening to the US dollar today? ( Obviously it's down, but why? )


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 13:10
panda @>(@):
auroelf -- Thanks for the confirmation, you saved me the trouble of scanning in the ad and posting it! This Internet 'slow down' is begining to trouble me. Too many are begining to rely on it ( me, sort of ) and I KNOW it is not that reliable. It's the getting between points 'A' and 'B' that's the problem. Lose a few frame relays and you're in trouble! Who said putting every school in the U.S. on the Internet was a good idea?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 12:47
TED @roto-tillerbreak>(@roto-tillerbreak):
Front ( 9:04 ) Will be done in an hour or so and will do your garden next if ya got one of those good Canadian brews fer me...No BUD!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 12:29
nailz Barron's Letters to Editor>(Barron's Letters to Editor):
There are a couple of letters to the editor in Saturdays Barrons concerning supply/demand for silver...You might be interested....


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 12:28
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

BART:

I notice that the SEPT PALLADIUM QUOTE is $0.00

Can I have 1 ton ( I'll pay for the freight ) delivered real soon?

Thanks
TTFN


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 12:23
George S. Cole investor demand>(investor demand):
CB:

I am arguing that gold will follow the whites before long despite one huge differnce -- namely the large supplies in the hands of central banks many of which are determined to keep the price depressed. My argument essentially boils down to the assertion that they will not be able to keep the price down up via the traditional routes of cheap gold loans and outright sales when investor demand starts to pick up. And this investor demand should develop when the stock market peaks.

INVESTOR DEMAND -- the lack of it today and the prospect of a big pick-up before long -- is the key to the gold market.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 12:23
Bernie @ca>(@ca):
To all....In case anyone owns a life insurance policy with a Mutual in its
name be prepared to be fleeced. From New York Times, I don't know
how else to say it. The ( Mutual Insurance ) companies are trying to get
into position to rob money from policyholders, said J. Robert Hunter, a
former Texas insurance commissioner.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 12:21
Novice @error messages>(@error messages):
Each time I chek Kitco's Near-Live Market Update page, I get an Error Message that necessitates shutting Netscape down. Anyone else with same problem?

Another day of early guarded optimism here in danger of being carried onto a lee shore. Palladium still holding its ground...


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 12:18
vronsky Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta>(Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta):

Virtual Eagleís eye view of global gold paradigm. Is it a plot to create a single world currency? Erudite & exhaustive analysis by Oracle of Alberta:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta604.html


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 11:53
auroelf the book>(the book):
Earl: re your Was the issuing agent a govt or some private entity? ( a consortium of each ) Weatherford sees the concept of money currently in transition, with many competing, parallel, overlapping systems of money and value operative, with no single one dominating, and with ever less control over them by nation-states. International electronic transfer is even more out of a nation's control than the food-stamp black market or the trading of frequent-flyer miles. And yes, I am contemplating others' ideas rather than making a case of my own.

Mooney, it pays to step back and weigh outside opinion and differently-biased views against what is said on this site from time-to-time.

Panda, Speed: The southeast regional WSJ also has the Pomboy ad on page C15. And yes, getting in to post here was blocked for a while.



Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 11:53
Speed @work>(@work):
Blanchard & Co. was bought by GE from Mr. Blanchard and then sold to a group of employees. They have very competitive prices.

Spot silver is at 4.78 100 maples=569 100 eagles= 644 100 libertads=513
all cost $10 to ship and insure.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 11:48
Digger dimes@mine.com>(dimes@mine.com):
Just noticed the ad for e-gold at vronsky's site. Sounds like it might be
a good idea. Anybody have any experience with it? Any comments?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 11:43
Mooney @Front>(@Front):
Hello, O Sneaky seller of Houses! A quick look took me about 15 minutes as I've not been there before, but everything looked scookum to me. Except I don't have time to figure out what the Ratio is about right now. Got to go out and shake up the real estate market in T.o. sometime today. :- ) I noticed that the headings at the top have self-explantory notes if you click on them. The strike prices and quotes seemed to jive with my read from the columns in the weekend Financial Post. BTW - My next options seminar takes place at the Inn on the Park on July 15th @ 1:00 p.m. - advance tickets are on sale now for only $99.00! :- ) Seriously, if you still can't figure out after today, e-mail me tonight.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 11:35
Bob A pgms>(pgms):
SWC off after being up earlier, moderate vol.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 11:07
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Monday morning @11:00 AM and still flatlining in Gold and Silver in N.Y.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 10:57
panda @last.post>(@last.post):
Please disregard last post. Technical problems here, there and everywhere.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 10:56
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Mooney:

Dear buddy..pal..wonderful person etc. etc. etc. would you please ......

Go to the Kitco active silver options page, grab a line and tell me exactly what each column is saying? I see it but it doesn't even begin to make sence to me.....Thanks old buddy oh pal oh Mr. wonderful etc. etc. etc.

TTFN


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 10:52
panda @can't get in!>(@can't get in!):
Is anyone having as much trouble as I am getting in to this site?

speed -- I'm in the Northeast. I believe it's the Eastern edition of the WSJ. The Pomboy Capital Corp. is located in Greenwich CT. Those are the people who put the ad in the Money and Investing section of the paper. Page C15. I know the WSJ puts out regional editions, perhaps the ads are regional to!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 10:32
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Geff and George - Just checked with my broker at Friedberg's ( commodities ) in Toronto and according to him Alfred Friedberg has not as of yet gotten any kind of bullish signal from the price and volume action in Gold futures and, in fact, is still short, wanting, at this point, to see a move to at least $355 in August Gold before reversing his short positions. This seems a little high to me considering the descending triangle but perhaps he gives a lot of leeway in his stops so as not to get whipsawed by any fake-outs.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 10:16
Speed @work>(@work):
Panda: Thanks, that's probably it. I too have had problems getting in today. Slow DNS connection. Later.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 10:07
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net):
Mooney-- My comment about the gold options was that hardly any seem to be moving--for some reason. In recent times one could look at the kitco gold option quote board and see at least one trade at just about every $5 increment. I have noticed that not only are very few strikes quoted lately, but also longer time lapses between activity. So, I guess my drift was that very few of the option sellers want to come out and play these days...Could this mean something is afoot?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 10:05
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
World shattering metals report gives reason for Platinum & Palladium strength. It proves why same explosive price rise in Gold & Silver will occur - Please RELOAD Digest page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:51
Mooney @Mr.Cole>(@Mr.Cole):
George, that was exactly my thought that ... sustainable gold rallies tend to start when the open interest has fallen to depressed levels. That seems to be the case today. I will get a comment from Friedberg's and get back to the group.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:45
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Silver had a wild ride on the overnight market and first dropped abot 9 cents then shot up about 11 cents and then dropped back down 10 cents so that on N.Y.'s opening it was approximately in line with Friday's close. Very interesting action but Gold and Silver are still in the flat-line mode this morning. Is the Friday and overnight action a precursor to more volatility about to happen? Where's the Shadow?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:40
George S. Cole open interest>(open interest):
MOONEY: My knowledge of the technical aspects of the commodities markets is not as comprehensive as that of many on this thread, but I do recall that several sources have asserted that sustainable gold rallies tend to start when the open interest has fallen to depressed levels. That seems to be the case today.

Low open interest, exceedingly negative sentiment, a 17-month bear market, a stock market now in its final blowoff phase, and the fact that gold and gold shares are incredibly cheap relative to financial assets all augur for a big move up before long.



Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:36
CB @Fed Up>(@Fed Up):

George s Cole: Re-June 8 update @ Gold-Eagle. Are
you making the case that the same conditions are
present in Gold and Silver as in Platinum and
Palladium?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:36
Mooney @LanMan!>(@LanMan!):
What contracts are your COT #'s referring too? Thanks.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:31
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Jack: Buy all the gold you can. You will feel very well off I imagine.
As Mr. Pretz said Its going to $20 000. Say hello to Kirk and Scotty when you get there. Buy Mr. Peutz's book for the trip. Rear-tined Troy builts are the best.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:30
George S. Cole gold bottom?>(gold bottom?):
August gold now up 90 cents. Will bullion be able to penetrate the downtrend lines that have contained all rallies since May 1996? My guesstimate -- not now, but quite soon.

AURIC: I do not follow the price of gold in foreign currencies nearly as closely as does THE PRIVATEER. I greatly respect their work; like GLENN they have been cautious for quite some time and still have not called a bottom in terms of greenbacks. But they do argue that it has troughed in Aussie dollars. THE PRIVATEER argues that this is very significant because bullion tends to bottom in Aussie currency before troughing in U.S. dollars.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:29
Mooney @Geff@7:20>(@Geff@7:20):
Geff - I don't quite get your drift. What do you mean by Has anyone else noticed how few GOLD options were quoted last Friday? Do you mean not as many options were traded as per a normal trading day? or that the # of outstanding contracts shrunk? The number of outstanding futures contracts of Gold on Comex was about 157,000 on Friday and the # of Silver futures contracts was about 90,000. These levels seem O.K. to me as a staring point for a rally. Anyone?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:19
vronsky GOLD: AN INVISIBLE BULL MARKET?>(GOLD: AN INVISIBLE BULL MARKET?):
One of US best-known Analysts in last 20 years, James Dines, shares bullish report on Platinum & Palladium - & their impact on Gold. He likes Stillwater Mining. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:15
Lan Man COT Update>(COT Update):
As of June 3, 1997, released at 4 p.m. on June 6, 1997, the commitments show commercial insiders long 96,893, short 68,789; speculators long 8,479, short 39,277.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:09
panda @>(@):
Is it me? Are others having trouble getting in this morning? Must be me...


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:05
vronsky Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near>(Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near):
Market maven George S. Cole believes secular market reversals are near: Financials DOWN & Hard Assets UP, perhaps reminiscent of 1930s & 1970s. Cole Market Insights - Click RELOAD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:04
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Mooney:

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:22
Mooney ( @Front ) :

@23:51 - Are you implying in any way that your wife is not as perfect as you?

Yea Right !!!! Like , Do I really look that stupid?

I wouldn't dare say it even if it's true you know since they changed the devorce laws in Ontario and now she gets 1/2 automatically. Can't work the market with only ha f t e eyb ard y u n w hahahaha ( :- ) )

Tarnished: You're right about Canadians. Wonder if our American friends remember that until about 5 years ago, EVERY player in the NHL was CANADIAN !!! ( even though MOST were from Ontario haha ) !!!

Ted: When you're done, I've got a bit left here to do also. I'll be out on the Seadoo today so just go ahead without me OK? Thanks....

TTFN


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 08:48
Auric Chompin'@.the.bit>(Chompin'@.the.bit):

Gold will kick the H E double L out of the EMU from
now on. Agreed?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 08:27
Roebear @Chocolatetown>(@Chocolatetown):
TED You can borrow mine, but I'm not gonna drive it there! Get a Troy-bilt, great machine.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 08:23
panda @can't get in!>(@can't get in!):
Is anyone having as much trouble as I am getting in to this site?

speed -- I'm in the Northeast. I believe it's the Eastern edition of the WSJ. The Pomboy Capital Corp. is located in Greenwich CT. Those are the people who put the ad in the Money and Investing section of the paper. Page C15. I know the WSJ puts out regional editions, perhaps the ads are regional to!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 08:04
Speed Huh?>(Huh?):
Panda: which WSJ you talking about bro? My page c15 is a Merrill Lynch ad.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:56
TED @roto-tilling>(@roto-tilling):
It's that time of year...finally...am off to rent a roto-tiller!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:54
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Front ( 23:51 ) How true! Guess I just got lucky.......Big Trader: HAHAHAHA
...what a bunch of crap!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:51
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort: Hahahahaha...The porpoise are still out there doin there thing....
The Dollar continues to slide against the YEN....


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:48
panda @warning.SHOT!>(@warning.SHOT!):
To All -- Todays Wall Street Journal page C15, top right coner, an ad about central bank sales of gold and their losses! Ad is from Richard M. Pomboy, Pomboy Capital Corp. Things are definitly heating up!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:43
EBN Update .>(.):

Last EBN-Dollar at 112.48 Yen.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:25
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn):
Just getting up from a night a celebrating the Jazz will with a good night's sleep. Morning Ted, I'd give a buck or two to see those porpoises doing their thing. I'll probably just have to watch the wind blow the yukka plants, but then I can do it without a shirt. Here's the joke of the morning.

A little girl says, Grandpa, can I sit on your lap?

Why sure you can, her grandfather replied.

As she is sitting on grand dad's lap she says, Grandpa, can you
make a sound like a frog?

A sound like a frog? Well, sure Grandpa can make a sound like a
frog.

The girl says, Grandpa, will you please please MAKE a sound like
a frog?

Perplexed, her grand dad says, Sweet heart, why do you want me to
make a sound like a frog?

And the little girl says, 'Cause Grandma said that when you croak,
we're going to Florida!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:20
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net):
Y'All: Has anyone else noticed how few GOLD options were quoted last Friday? Bart's option quote page gives me a Katie bar the door feeling about the upcoming action this week. It seems like all those who had the ultimate cash cow by selling gold calls may now be sitting on a heard of cash cow carcasses, on the phone to their broker getting hide quotes.

BTW, I sure miss the old qoute bar being at the top of this page.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:18
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net):
Y'All: Has anyone else noticed how few GOLD options were quoted last Friday? Bart's option quote page gives me a Katie bar the door feeling about the upcoming action this week. It seems like all those who had the ultimate cash cow by selling gold calls may now be stiilig on a heard of cash cow carcasses, on the phone to their broker getting hide quotes.

BTW, I sure miss the old qoute bar being at the top of this page.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:12
TED @Porpoise>(@Porpoise):
What a beautiful day and many porpoise are now swimming and surfacing right in front of the house...


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 06:57
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN GOld up .25 and Silver up 1 cent; Dollar/ Yen @ 112.69 down 1.93 ( 1.68% ) on fears of Japan's growing trade surplus...


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 06:56
Mike Sheller I love the smell of Kitco in the Morning!>(I love the smell of Kitco in the Morning!):
The morning review of the past few hours finds an air of expectant tension vibrating through the site. Just a couple of weeks ago there was gloom among the glitterati, with chat about politics and remote viewing keeping the faithful awake. Now there's a glint of metal in everyone's eye. AUROELF: Show me the Soy Meal! Cybercash will ONLY be successful when it becomes an electronic note against an equivalent of gold. Real money is always a real thing - a commodity. It's a Physical World phenomenon. In the end, the fundamental things apply, as time goes by. QT: Good to see you're back in the hot Florida Sun. La Donna e Mobile pretty soon. Loved your opera. I was right under the balcony looking up. Looks like my $240 on the Palladium came faster than we both thought.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 06:45
George S. Cole Russian Gold>(Russian Gold):
August gold up 80 cents a few minutes ago. Steep drop in dollar/yen not having much impact YET.

From today's N Y TIMES:




June 9, 1997


Pristine Russian Far East Sees Its Fate in Gold


In This Article
An Uncertain Fate, a Difficult Choice
Near Future or Far, Jobs Are Crucial
Facing Extinction, Tribes Hang On

Map
Esso, Kamchatka


By MICHAEL SPECTER


SSO, Russia -- The basic view from this mountain village hasn't changed for 7,000
years, since a giant reservoir of molten lava crested over to form the mighty peak of
Asia's largest and most active volcano. Eagles and falcons dance through the crisp air.
Not far away, the world's biggest population of grizzly bears -- shaking off their winter
slumber -- forage for salmon as big as dogs.

There is nothing else in Russia, and little left on earth, like Kamchatka. A peninsula the size of
California, with just one long, partly paved road, it has more earthquakes and live volcanoes --
including Asia's biggest and most active, Klyuchevskaya Sopka -- than anywhere else. Thanks
to its fertile rivers, lakes and seas, the region accounts for nearly half the fish produced in
Russia.

But while Kamchatka, in Russia's Far East, is one of the last pristine places on the planet, it
has been left that way by accident. More than 5,000 miles from Moscow, the region was
protected by the Soviet Union because it was home to a nuclear submarine base in the port city
of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. For decades it was off limits to all but natives, sailors and
fishermen. The staggering wealth that lies beneath the soil -- gold, silver, platinum and more --
has never been touched.

But the temptations have never been greater, because every year Kamchatka draws closer to
death.

There is a way to save Kamchatka, said Aleksandr A. Orlov, the chief of the regional
administration's department of Energy, Mineral Resources and Communication. And
everybody knows what it is: we have to dig for gold. I myself want as much wild nature as
possible. We all do. But first of all, people should have a good life. To live here we need
development. Without it we should just turn this place into a wild park or game reserve and
move away. Because if they stay people are going to starve.

The collapse of Communism, hard as it has been on many Russian provinces, has put special
pressures on Kamchatka. Unique in so many ways -- it is, after all, so far east of Moscow that
it is almost west of Moscow -- Kamchatka nonetheless presents the most striking example of
the impossible struggle remote regions face in adapting themselves to the realities of the new
Russia.

The subsidies, incentives and discounts that Soviet leaders doled out for living in Siberia and
the distant north are gone now and nothing that people did here in the old economy makes
sense anymore. Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, where 300,000 of the region's 400,000 people
live and where almost no produce grows and everything must be imported, is among the
nation's most expensive urban areas. Bread here costs three times as much as in Moscow.
Unemployment is nearly 30 percent. In winter an apple costs a dollar.

The fishing industry in the world's largest salmon spawning ground, which accounts for more
than 80 percent of Kamchatka's workers, is buckling under the costs of transporting its catch
back to the population centers in the west. There is no longer any money in hunting because it
costs too much to ship meat. Reindeer breeding, a way of life in the north for at least a
thousand years, is also on the verge of disappearing. The regional government has become so
impoverished it can no longer pay hunters a bounty to kill wolves, which have multiplied
rapidly and decimated the herds. The reindeer herders are often so desperate that they are
forced to kill their animals just to feed their families.

But the pressure to find a way to make Kamchatka prosper competes with the knowledge that
once digging here begins, one more natural paradise will almost certainly be lost.

I am sure there are places on this planet as wild, beautiful and diverse as this, said Yelena
Dulchenko, a geologist with the Kamchatka Institute of Ecology. But I just don't know where
they could be. If they dig for gold here they will ruin Kamchatka forever. It will become just
another place that used to be special.

Gold fever sometimes makes debates seems simple, and it would be easy to portray the battle
for Kamchatka as a struggle between those who wish to preserve the earth and those who are
eager to plunder it. But the people here have an obvious reverence for their surroundings and a
strong desire to protect them. They also have bleak prospects for the future.

An Uncertain Fate, a Difficult Choice

oscow can no longer afford to support places like Kamchatka; that much is clear. If it
survives, it will have to find a way to do it alone.

We are forgotten by the federal government, said Gennadi Devyatkin, head of the local
administration in the gold-producing region in central Kamchatka that includes Esso.
Forgotten except when they want our fish. We are a colony and Moscow can only take from
us. At least in the old days they would give us back enough to survive. Not anymore though.

That is why it is no longer possible to ignore the most obvious source of wealth in Kamchatka.
There are from 500 to 1,000 tons of gold here, a figure that, while not enormous by world
standards, could bring in as much as $10 billion.

It's not going to change the world gold market, said Samuel Romberger, professor of
Economic Geology at the Colorado School of Mines. But it might excite a bunch of Western
adventurists.

That's for sure. Canadian, American and Russian companies have all been eager to get digging
and the fight has already become messy. Many of those who want the region to grow, or at
least to continue supporting humans, say tourism is the only way to do it.

Since the peninsula has 30 active volcanoes and more than 100 that are dormant, one of the
world's great geyser fields ( along with Yellowstone ) , tens of thousands of rivers and lakes,
and every type of animal from sea otter and sable to the world's biggest eagles, tourism seems
to make a lot of sense.

But with no roads, the only way to move about the peninsula is by helicopter. And most
helicopters are controlled by one company. Visiting the Valley of the Geysers -- where more
than 200 geysers spout, bubble and boil into the sky -- can cost $2,000 for a few hours. A
round-trip plane ticket from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky to Palana, the northern administrative
center, is $400. Many families don't earn that in a year.

You would need to spend millions of dollars to turn this into a tourist attraction that would
bring more than just the most adventurous travelers, said Gennadi Karpov, deputy director of
the Institute of Vulcanology, the premier scholarly institution in Kamchatka. The two volcano
ranges are wonders of the world. But if you don't have several thousand dollars you can only
see them from far away. You are not going to get thousands of tourists if all we have to offer
them are helicopter rides.

There are few hotels outside the capital Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, in part because the island
is in the center of a major earthquake zone and the cost of building hotels that can withstand
earthquakes is huge.

Fishing is the only industry here to prosper. But many people feel its singular success may
doom it. More than a million tons were hauled from the seas near Kamchatka in 1996 -- a
record catch and one that specialists here feel is too large even for such rich waters. This year
the Russian government permitted quotas that are even higher, though, because with little else
in the way of income fishing is all most people have. That is why so many residents have
reluctantly turned their hope to mining.

Near Future or Far, Jobs Are Crucial

he effects of mining are difficult to predict. New techniques reduce pollution
immensely -- but perhaps not enough to protect Kamchatka. Colorado still has many
streams that are considered toxic-waste sites more than 100 years after gold mining
ended in them. It is not possible to extract gold from the earth without flushing large amounts
of heavy metals -- which are always found near gold deposits -- into the surrounding water.
Fish eat them, bears eat the fish -- and both would suffer badly, as would people.

The ground is wet here and where it is not wet it is cold, said Igor Revenko, a leading bear
biologist with the Kamchatka Institute of Ecology. Revenko has been taking a bear census here
for several years, attempting with many other experts from around the world to understand
why this appears to be the best place on earth for them to live.

The conditions here are fragile and unique, he said. This is not Colorado where the ground
was dry. We are not nearly as big as Alaska. Also, we have to look at what we are going to get
if we ruin Kamchatka for a few tons of gold.

Revenko said that the mines here would be exhausted within 30 years -- a figure that regional
mining supporters do not contest. Then, if the natural splendors of the peninsula are affected --
and slight environmental challenges often have major adverse consequences -- the possibility of
using the place as an tourist spot may no longer exist.

Personally, over the long run, Revenko said, I think there would be more money in
tourism.

This year, in an attempt to protect those areas of Kamchatka that are truly wild and most in
danger, UNESCO put nearly 10 million acres on its list of protected World Heritage Sites. The
legal implications of that decision are not clear, but it has not made everyone here happy.

Everyone has a plan to save Kamchatka, said Aleksandr Rechednikov, a 50-year-old hunter
in this town of 300 families. But they are not saving it for me. I can't make a living hunting
anymore. I can't fish. There are no jobs to offer, none. So why don't the good rich people
from everywhere else in the world leave us alone and let us decide what to do in our own
land?

Facing Extinction, Tribes Hang On

iktoriya Petrasheva also wishes people would leave the place alone. But her
perspective couldn't differ more sharply from that of Rechednikov. Ms. Petrasheva
lives in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky but she is one of the peninsula's dwindling
number of indigenous people -- a member of the Itelmen tribe, which began its first wave of
eastward migration more than 10,000 years ago. There were 25,000 Itelmen in Kamchatka
when the Russians came in 1697. Today there are 1,000 to 2,000.

My grandfather was executed in 1934, she said. He was accused of being a spy for Japan.
My mother was 6. Her mother was labeled an enemy of the people, -- Stalin's infamous term
for millions who then endured suffering, and usually death. But ever since the Russians came
here we have been enemies of the people. So it was nothing new.

Mrs. Petrasheva is an ethnographer who has studied the fate of natives in Kamchatka -- most
of whom still live in the north, coastal or central parts of the peninsula. Her results are not
encouraging. For centuries the Even, Koryak and Itelmen lived easily in harsh conditions.
They herded reindeer, which provided meat and skins, caught and preserved an endless supply
of salmon and hunted the bears, foxes and sable, whose furs helped them to survive the cold.

Taking a notebook from the shelf, she provided an account of deaths in the native Even village
of Anavgai, just 25 miles from Esso. In 1994, 8 people died there -- out of 300 -- and nobody
was born. She reels off the ages of the dead: 25, 27, 38, 41. In all, 26 villagers have died there
in the last three years -- with two births. There have been one murder and seven suicides. The
reindeer population -- which sustained the village -- has slid from 19,000 to less than 2,500 in
the last decade.

You can't even hope that we will survive as a nation, said Katya Atelkut, a veterinarian,
sitting in the cultural center of Anavgai. Although it is May, all around her snow covers the
hills and mountains.

Maybe we won't even survive at all, she said. People leave if they can. They drink if they
can't leave. And now there is going to be gold. I don't know why, but somehow it is hard for
me to believe we will see very much of it. I don't want to see them dig up the earth. Its all we
have here now, and when that is gone there will be nothing left.


Other Places of Interest on the Web
Journey to Kamchatka, from The Discovery Channel Online



Home | Sections | Contents | Search | Forums | Help

Copyright 1997 The New York Times Company







Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 05:35
Ken Not in Kansas, Dorothy>(Not in Kansas, Dorothy):

Any updates on the lease rate in Palladium and
Platinum? What about Silver and Gold. How are the
precious metals doing?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 05:18
Duncan To: John Disney>(To: John Disney):
Thanks for the Barplats & hedging information John - your'e a scholar,
and a gentleman!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 05:12
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
Barplats
This mine is very low grade and high cost. It has been
closed for some time. I understand a sustained platinum
price of over 525$/oz would be required to consider
opening it. Also heavy capex would be needed.
Northam would be a better speculation. This mine is
also high cost and unprofitable at prior prices. Now
at prices of over 450$/oz, Im sure it is making money.
It is also really cheap - ( 2.5 Rand ) . My info on Norilsk
is that it only produces half a million ounces plat and
1.5 mil palladium per year. Russians selling twice that
for three years so not surprising if stockpiles exhausted.
Seems everything about Russia has been overstated, ie
their army, their missiles, their platinum group metals,
and presumably their diamonds too.
Also understand automakers will go back to tri
catalists from Palladium catalyst ( this will boost Rhodium consumption
and price of same - ) . Good for RSA as they heavy rhodium
producers, while Russia makes disproportionately high
palladium . Automakers are probably in trouble but they
will lie about that and soon claim to have developed a
new converter that does not require platinum. They may
even buy into the desert dirt BS just to try and
alleviate platinum price problem. Dont think this will
work this time around.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 05:00
Howard Cossell Telling it like it is>(Telling it like it is):

Jazz took two in a row from the Chicago Bulls. The
Chicago Bulls are paper tigers. Da Bulls are
getting old. Them paper traders at the Chicago pits
will have to fend off silver tipped arrows. Serves
them right! Thwock!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 05:00
Howard Cossell Telling it like it is>(Telling it like it is):

Jazz took two in a row from the Chicago Bulls. The
Chicago Bulls are paper tigers. Da Bulls are
getting old. Them paper traders at the Chicago pits
will have to fend off silver tipped arrows. Serves
them right! Thwock!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 04:26
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
To all
Some info on hedging in RSA mines. Vaal Reef has sold
forward about 55% of production over next 4 years at
roughly 1720 to 2600 Rands/once. At current rand rate,
equates to 385$/oz rising to 580 in out year. Western
Deep Levels hedges only about 20% at about the same
rand prices. This info is from the Mining Journal and was
easy to get.

If there is more interest in this, I can probably
get more info, but it will be harder ( old newspapers
kind of thing )


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 03:57
Perfesser @Educating RJ >(@Educating RJ ):

Henry V Act 3 Scene 1: To the breach indeed! FWIW
Shakespeare has much to say about Gold.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 03:20
LSU Tiger @NBA>(@NBA):

Anybody remember Pete Maravich? That boy could play
basketball.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:51
NBA Update>(Update):

The Mailman delivered. It's 2-2, pal.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:48
Arctic Spirit spirit@internorth.com>(spirit@internorth.com):
As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html






Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:39
Long Gone Conceding>(Conceding):

No Mas! I quit.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:27
Jack Good Material>(Good Material):

Steve Puetz: Thanks for the many fine posts and the
searching direct answers.
Speed: Forgot to ask Fundy how much of the $277 he would
have left after taxes.
Fundy: Wish that my dad had bought a farm on Long Island
in 1950, even after property taxes and special
assessments - never mind the $20 ounce.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:16
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
Mooney - I'm new to this game but my first thoughts were that it would
shake out the speculators. Their % returns would will be less then they
use to be. Applying that to the PL/PA market : I think alot of money
has been made already, how much is left at these levels? That would lead
me to think everyone left really want the stuff and have the money. I
don't think the long side will change. The short side I don't know about.

Has anyone followed the open interest in PL/PA for the end of the year?
Dec/Feb98? There sure is a large open interest? If I was walking
in the Tiger's funds shoes I would have alot of futures contracts spread
out as far as I could. Then I would start acquiring all the metal I
could. I wouldn't be selling anything until I had collected on the
contracts. If so, then these are really cheap right now. Any comments?

Mooney 01:01: silver still closed above the 18 day MA. So I'm still long.

Earl: Yes I don't understand BT's first post. What metal is he talking
about? Gold? I thought the Asains were buying not selling. I look
forward to an explaination.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:15
Test @Test>(@Test):

Would like to hear Vieserre on BT. Is this the real
deal that posted last night?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:12
Lan Man Whats This?>(Whats This?):
Looking at the Kitco Silver Lease Rates History - looks like something changed in the markets around May 29th. See http:///silver.leaserates.html
At the same time Forward rates went down.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:05
Mooney @Silver>(@Silver):
Thought I'd check Bart's 24 hour Silver chart before I hit the sack and sure enough it's dropped like a rock. If it stay's there it should be the exact opening that I was talking about in my 1:01 !


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:03
Roebear @Hersheypark>(@Hersheypark):
BT Your syntax has changed wonderfully; have you been spending a lot of time lately stateside or do you now have your very own USA interpreter? Better slow down and remember your roots.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 01:41
Surveyor reily@harborside.com>(reily@harborside.com):
Speed - thank you for your Sunday, 15:22, re: XOI vs. Fidelity Select Energy Services.

Auric - thank you for your Sunday, 18:01 re: HUI vs. a basket of the individual gold mining stocks with a deep discount broker.

Wish I wasn't trading Keogh funds; otherwise I would just go for the bullion with most of you!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 01:38
Mooney @kuston>(@kuston):
kuston - The normal effect - all other things being equal - is that the commodity would experience downward pressure. Of course if sentiment and buying power outweigh this effect the market can still keep motoring in the same direction. Raising the margins is one device that the exchanges can use to influence the markets downwards but of course the primary purpose is to ensure against defaults by participants.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 01:30
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Madog - My earlier message of -thanks! - to you although brief was not meant to be sarcastic but was a sincere comment. You were sharing the fact that according to your system, ( without going into details ) , the trend is about to change. I sincerely appreciated that post. I try and listen to the comments of all who post here and then add and subtract them all up and see where and how it affects my perceptions of what's happening. My Louis the 16th comment is in reference to the fact that I have said that when I feel the Gold market has finally bottomed I will post a certain quote from Louis 16th that I feel is pertinant to the situation that we have been experiencing for the last year or so. I have said I will post this comment when I feel the Gold market changes direction. In other words I was agreeing with you that we may almost be there. :-0
I have been sarcastic recently with only one participant that I know of and that is a person who many times in the last year has been very rude and often attacked other participants just for the fun of it. He even has made up falsehoods and lies and stated such as facts here to create dissention. This weekend his lies were so gross that if I had the time and inclination, ( and I guess it would help if I lived in the States as that's where he does ) , I would sue the person for slander.
BTW - Most of us Canucks would appreciate it if you would let us know via a timely post when your indicator says that the Canadian dollar is finally about to reverse and head north! :- )


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 01:22
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
Tommorrow the NYMEX raises the margin requirements on PL and PA. Does
anyone have an idea what effect this will have on the market?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 01:21
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Thank you Speed. I should have said $20 of 1930 gold and $20 worth of 1930 DOW.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 01:21
Auric Philanthropy 101>(Philanthropy 101):

RJ @ 00:59- What about $420 Gold between now and
Dec.31, 1997? Am I gonna owe $420 to charity, or is
WW?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 01:01
MADOG MOONEY>(MOONEY):
TYPO- LONG COFFEE JAN/97


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 01:01
Mooney @Earl>(@Earl):
Earl - I hope so, for her sake!
Silver Futures Traders - All of our optimism aside, Fridays chart does not look great given the highs and then the weak close. Look at Bart's 24 hour spot chart. One thing I have noticed in the past is that regardless of weekend action, New York almost always has some trading at the opening very close to Friday's close. If this happens this morning at the opening and considering the U.S. dollar weak against Yen overnight, then it may be a good 'window of opportunity' to pick up some Silver if that's one's intentions. Good Tradin' in '97!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:59
MADOG MARKETS TELL THE TRADE >(MARKETS TELL THE TRADE ):
MOOOONEY--- LONG COFFEE JAN/96//SHORT HOGS AND BEANS END OF MAY//SHORT CDN DOLLAR 2 WEEKS AGO AND SEVERAL MORE SIGNALS. INDICATOR IS BASED ON MARKET PSYCHOLOGY AND MATHEMATICS. WORKS BETTER THAN SARCASM AND I THINKS AND I BELIEVESTHAT YOU OFFER.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:59
RJ (I like a sure bet)>((I like a sure bet)):
Nay $325 - although it as is likley as not. $335 half a dozen times before $400 once. Prior courtesy: Henry V....


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:58
tarnished @Dinghy>(@Dinghy):
Front:I prefer to think, Great hockey players come from Canada...
Sorry quebec.....but that was my bid for national unity....and the Rocket
and Lafleurs were Canadians then.
BTW...What a class act Stevie was, his first comment was not for his cup victory but for how amiss things are without Don Cherry present....
Lets see another athelete demonstrait that kind of selflessness!
TTFN


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:54
Reify @adding points>(@adding points):
Further to GFD yest.22:44, I wish to add the following ideas;

From my studies of historic basing patterns, the last 17 weeks, should break out sharply from these levels for the next couple of months.

The ratio of XAU to spot that Kaplan uses in his daily analysis, states that when the differential is below 260 it begins getting bearish and above bullish. Now 244. This indicator should now start adjusting to the upside, which should confirm GFD's theory of bullion leading the stocks to the upside.

In any case we should start feeling some more pleasurable emotions in the near future. How much crying can these souls take?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:49
Auric home>(home):

RJ: I say gold will touch $400 before $325. Agree
or disagree?


w


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:45
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
RJ: ...... the fox has taken flight and the hounds bay loudly. ... with apologies for the intrusion into yer swell pome.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:41
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Mooney @23:41: I think Auroelf was quoting the opinion of the author, rather than expressing an opinion of her own.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:38
RJ (SHORT SQEEZE PART II)>((SHORT SQEEZE PART II)):
Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more; or close the wall up with our dead........ for there is none of you so mean and base, that hath not noble lustre in your eyes...... I see you stand like greyhounds in the slips, straining upon the start. The game's afoot.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:34
Mooney @GFD>(@GFD):
BTW - I agree in general with just about everything GFD says in his June 8 @ 22:44.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:23
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Auroelf @21:27: The ultimate formation of a cybercurrency, of course, would depend for its long term stability, on the same thing as paper. That is that the issuer is able to hold greed in check and restrain an uwarranted expansion. The recent past is not a source of comfort. That doesn't mean they will not try it. ..... BTW. Was the issuing agent a govt or some private entity? ( a consortium of each )


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:22
Mooney @Front>(@Front):
@23:51 - Are you implying in any way that your wife is not as perfect as you?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:13
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
madog - Thanks! Louis 16th getting closer - I can feel it!
Steve Puetz - I disagree. I believe Silver will settle in at the very long term historical relationhip of about 16 /1.
All - With the marked increase of commentary about Silver here I believe that it can be taken as another indicator that Silver is about to have the marked increase that most here are predicting, and very soon at that. I remember about a year ago, those of us that even mentioned Silver or the Gold/Silver relationship were in a very small minority and some of the pundits were even expousing the favourite brainwashing line of the financial community that Silver is no longer a monetary metal and only an industrial one. AAR - to make another of my long stories short - I decided that all the Silver talk lately was a definite sign. Further Mr. Sheller ( one of the local interpreters of signs ) mentioned July looks good for Silver. So I thinks to meself - July not that far away, something funny happening with other white metals, what should I do? Kept thinking and then all of a sudden - Whammo - the family and friends throw a SILVER wedding anniversary for Mr. and Mrs. MOONEY ( at this point I should repeat MY previously stated interest in Silver and the fact that others have reported here that the MOON is the celestial object which represents Silver ) . Others here say grab some physical metal. 'Good idea' I say to myself and today ( Sunday afternoon ) I set off to the local mega-mall where I know a certain coin shop has a large supply of pre-'66 Canadian halfs and dollars for good prices. Store has been there as at least 15 years. Haven't been to that mall in couple months. Store gone. Sure hope Silver doesn't open limit up and start a panic before I make my Mooney purchase!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:07
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Trying to understand: BT @21:07. .... Without forming a value judgement as to its validity; I do not do not understand the trader's description of what are apparently current market conditions. If there is someone here who can decipher and expand on it, I, for one, would appreciate it very much.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:59
RJ rjd@pacbell.com>(rjd@pacbell.com):
EWP - RE: Monex inquiry. E-mail any questions you may have.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:58
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Mr.Bear:

$25.95 and they come to your front door

Should I leave the light on? I'm going to bed before they arrive !!!

CIAO & TTFN


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:56
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):

Mooney -United States Postal Service 1-800-222-1811 They are open 24hrs, give them a call. 50lbs $3,500.00 insured with return receipt = $25.95 and they come to your front door.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:54
Tiny Trader tiny@little.com>(tiny@little.com):
Hey Biggest of Big Traders. SH! SH! SH! SH! SH!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:53
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Panda @20:49: Your comments regarding the collapse of the PL futures market are not receiving enough attention IMO. We are indeed watching a major default and yet most are ignoring the implications of it. Or perhaps that it is even a default at all. Maybe the big players are so confident of their positions with the banks and govts that can afford to remain serene and unconcerned. The real question in my mind, is how govts will react to what should be just collossal mistake on the part of players who should be allowed to swallow their own mistakes. I'm really concerned about the early appeals by Dresdner Bank, for example, to the US for relief via a release of PL/PA from US strategic stockpiles. Merely to relieve the suffering of some who suddenly find themselves on the wrong side of a major swing. ... Of course if the US does decide to do it, we will only know about it after the fact. If at all.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:52
QT @>(@):
Steve P.,,,,,,, I'm sorry if I sounded a bit gruff, you needn't get defensive. I value your contributions here a great deal. You have my upmost respect. BUT. Steve. Do the Kid a favor and let him get onboard this one. The next ninety days will make a man of him. You suggest, silver being 1/8 as scarce as gold, that there is at least a price correction for the fairer metal in the wings.Others use the weight differential, Sheller, and others still can see the writing on the inventory to contract ratios walls. The bottom line here isthat Silver is a great big GO, GREEN LIGHT.

These Russians are helping drive home a point the Kid should be exposed to. Maybe you should take this conversation to an E-mail level withhim and give him some advise of value. Whether or not the advise conforms to the thesis of yor TC, which I will get but haven't yet, follow through on your obligations. If you choose to advise DO IT.



Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:51
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

TED:

Just a blip in time eh! Trust me, it all depends on who you spend it with my lad !!!!

TTFN


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:50
Biggest Big Trader @smallertraders>(@smallertraders):
Yer all full of it!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:48
TED @mooney>(@mooney):
Mooney: What's eight years....just a blip in time!...I hope Rangers will do it next year but they gotta make some moves...


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:48
The Government Planners Washington, D.C.>(Washington, D.C.):
1997 Batmobiles are 25% better than 1996 Batmobiles. The 20% increase in Batmobile prices in 1997 means than prices have gone down 5%. Batmobiles have a 5% deflationary effect on CPI.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:47
Biggest Trader biggest@huge.com>(biggest@huge.com):
Little Trader is little BS. HoHoHo


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:46
Auric Ready>(Ready):

Three posts from BT in one night. Are you strapped
in?


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:46
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Steve Peutz re 23:41 & Mooney :

No kiddin' .... does get addictive doesn't it. The great thing is that there are as many opinions as people but everyone seems willing ot listen ( at least until they disagree haha ) . Enjoy ...

Mooney: I remember my 17th....I had hair then !!!!!

TTFN


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:42
Little Trader @bigtrader>(@bigtrader):
Big Trader is BIG BS...hahahaha


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:41
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Mr.Bear - That U.S. postal service must be amasing! Are you serious that you can have about 50 POUNDS of Silver mailed to you for only about $26. in postage! Tell me that they throw in free insurance at these rates also!
Auroelf - Do you SERIOUSLY belive this modern world e-mail script B.S. will totally replace hard money in our not-too-distant future?
Incidentally, the displacement of paper money by cyber-finance
leaves little likelihood of a return to gold money, which was
previously replaced by paper. In some respects, our goldbug point
of view is doubly outdated if we expect gold ever to serve as a
recognized medium of exchange again,...
Have you comprehended even a fraction of information given to you at this site?
Front - Thanks again and thanks for the heartfelt advice. Can't wait to retire to Calabogie ( or some such place ) and start washing dishes! :- )
Ted - Next Year for N.Y.? Wish I could even remember my 17th!
Prognosticator @ 9:41 - Go ahead! ( Sounds much more official than predictor - doesn't it? ) But do me a favour and post as Prognosticator 2 just so's no one mixes up with the original. :- )


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:41
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Front -- It's my first time on a chat page. I've had the Internet for a couple of years, just never used it. I've had some free time this weekend. I though I'd try the chat page -- Now I'm hooked!! It's been fun.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:39
madog 1st TIME SINCE JAN.1996>(1st TIME SINCE JAN.1996):
Hi guys. I have a custome indicator which i designed some time ago to help me in my trading decisions. it seems to work quite well in all markets and i thought I'd share what it is telling me re the gold market. After
a long convergence begining in the middle of 1996 and leading up to May 1997, the indicator has finally broken over in to the BUY zone based on the weekly gold chart. It is the first time the indicator has entered the buy zone since late December 1995.

Translation-------------- TREND IS GOING TO CHANGE SOON!!!!!!


Touch Gold and Silver Charm winning the Belmont Stakes!!!

Could only mean one thing. Happy trading


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:39
Bigger Trader very@big.com>(very@big.com):
The XAU will be at 130 by June 20th.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:38
DocDuke Albuquirky>(Albuquirky):
More Gold: I don't know about the Canadian statistics, but I have been told that the U.S. Gov't view is: So what if the 1997 Batmobile costs 20% more than the 1996 Batmobile. It is 20% better, so its contribution to inflation is 0%.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:36
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
QT -- Gold and silver have always moved in the same direction since both gold was un-pegged to the Dollar in 1971. I like both gold and silver now. It's just that I like silver better because the gold-silver ratio is out-of-whach at 75-to-1. Gold is about 8 times rarer than silver. If monetary demand re-emerges for both, their price differential should be proportional to their scarcity -- that is gold should be about 8 times higher than silver.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:32
BIG TRADER thoughts>(thoughts):
GFD & Steve: Good write.

When we ďwound downĒ and ďcancel outĒ smallest part of
this paper market it take out comex and otc paper completely!
Then you must settle several hundred million ozs with london.
The ability of the entire worldwide gold mining and trading
community to sell a product will be destroyed in short time.
The metal market as we know it from 1968 will end !


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:31
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Steve Puetz :

Steve, busy boy tonight... 22 posts later and you're getting like dear old EARL... have an opinion once in a while will ya ! ( :- ) ) ) )

TTFN


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:29
vronsky Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta>(Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta):

Virtual Eagleís eye view of global gold paradigm. Is it a plot to create a single world currency? Erudite & exhaustive analysis by the Oracle of Alberta:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta604.html


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:24
QT @>(@):
Hey Puetz, get real with the Kid. A good doctor would perscribe he take 2 COMEX Futures Contracts in the morning and call you in 30 days if the ache for silver hasn't been replaced with a Total Collapse of his fear of the market. Totally,,,


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:23
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Big Trader: Central Banks cannot push gold lower forever. First, they have grossly over-issued paper in relation to their gold. Second, they have loaned out too much of their gold. ( platinum past 2 weeks is an example of what happens when metal-loans are called in -- Platinum shoots from 2 year low to a 7-year high within a few weeks time. ) Third, central banks have already lost too much of their gold -- they only control about 20% of world's gold now. 50 years ago they had well over 50% of it.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:09
Little Trader @Bigtrader>(@Bigtrader):
Big Trader is big BS....hahahaha


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:08
QT @>(@):
Big Trader & GFD Two thumbs up ! Not that this takes away from the predominant mix here, just adds spice.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:08
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Kid Silver: Junk silver and silver eagles are both OK. Stay away from collectibles. They monetary value of collectibles is way below what you will have to pay for them. I explain some of this in my book Total Collapse -- just released. If your are interested in ordering it, call Newsletter Systems at ( 888 ) -639-7587.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:06
GFD Who Indeed>(Who Indeed):
Big Trader: Who got who? It may be retail ( jewelers, etc ) anxiously contemplating their efficient just in time inventory systems that may just have ran out of time. I agree with Ted Butler that all this paper has sent markets the wrong ( but convieniently politically correct ) signals leading some down the garden path.

As for the deals that you are talking about I suspect that they will be quietly wound down - with the helpful assistance of the central banks. That is, the deals will be essentialy canceled out.

The real question is what will be seen in the markets once this obscuring cloud of paper dissappears

Yellow palladium anyone


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:04
Steve Puetz @ reply to DA>(@ reply to DA):
More than just rumor, CFTC commitment-of-traders report shows large short position by futures speculators -- 30,000 contracts. In over-night trading, gold open up $.10 higher. Latest quote is now $1.60 higher. Dollar is crashing.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:02
Steve Puetz @ auroelf>(@ auroelf):
Gold has one big ( no, huge ) advantage over paper-money and cyber-cash. Gold requires no promise of future payment. I disagree with Jim Davidson on the coming role of cyber-cash. Increasingly, monetary promises are going bad and being defaulted on. A 25 years history for paper-money and 2 year history for cyber-cash do not qualify as time-tested. Thousands of years for gold and silver qualify as time-tested money.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:53
BIG TRADER thoughts>(thoughts):
This could not be true? More?
So many off market forward gold deals were done without
any gold changing hands! Big buyers got on the paper side
of these things and thought that the CBís were backing the
dealer banks by written contract. If the mines couldnít
perform the banks would .......! But what if in some deals
the mines were not involved at all ? Just off market option
trades as backing? And some of the paper buyers shorted
the futures in a big way to cover . And now whatever gold
that was to back these deals is found to be ďnot thereĒ?
And everybody was looking at all this paper being sold
and thought there must be one hell of a lot of gold being
sold!
Now during the last six months the price has fallen, but
I have to ask, ďwho has got whoĒ?


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:51
Steve Puetz @ Ray>(@ Ray):
Ray, thanks for correcting me. I though Blanchard Co. and Jefferson Coin were essentially one and the same. Guess I was wrong.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:45
MoreGold @relationships>(@relationships):
This quote from James Dines:
We urge you to keep in mind Dinesism #10, the Dines Wolfpack Theory, predicting that the four precious metals tend to move together ( gold, silver, platinum, palladium ) and the fact that the latter two are rising strongly suggests that strength in gold and silver is imminent.

If the pa & pl rally holds and is for real, this should just be a matter of time.
D.A.: enjoy your updates, keep them comming.
Steve Peutz, agree with you, when the rubber band snaps, the Gold rally
should be sharply vertical. I like your price target, non of this 410. or 450.
Market may be starting to price the pa pl factor in, one of the Gold calls I own was up 40% intra-day from Thursday to Friday.
Speaking of inflation, I priced a pickup truck in 1991 at approx. $C13000. Today the same runs around $25000. I think this is a little more
than the 2.5% we keep hearing......


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:44
GFD WHY THE GOLD BULLS ARE WRONG>(WHY THE GOLD BULLS ARE WRONG):
I have great respect for the gold analysts on this site and at Golden Eagle. However to ensure that we are not fighting the last war in our view of the current situation I will propose a different scenario for gold and siver.

I suggest that bullion will lead gold stocks in the next market and both will do spectacularly whether there is a stock market crash or not.

The reasons for this are essentially two fold. Firstly, bullion will skyrocket for all the reasons that Ted Butler has documented. However, even he may be too conservative in his outlook for one simple reason. Much of the existing stockpiles of gold and silver may have already been loaned out. For example, while statistics indicate aboveground stockpiles of 450 moz of silver it is NOT known much of that has been loaned out. The end could be a lot closer than we think, particularly if there has been asian investment hoarding going on, providing a ready market for those who wish to convert borrowed metal to cash as part of some derivitives program.

Secondly, as many have mentioned here, finacial inflation over the last two decades means that precious metal assets ( bullion and stocks ) are a small fraction of total financial assets. Suppose Fidelity decides that to preserve it's market share it should start to emulate Tiger Fund - not to mention George Soros.

I will contend the Tiger Fund's sucess makes massive investment hoarding a credible strategy for major financial players. Big Trader may have gotten in first but I doubt that he will be last. Given the over extension of current financial markets, this could be the only politically safe way to make a few quick bilions. Soros could short a currency but could wind up being crucified both finacially and politically in a political climate much less lassez faire than a few years ago. On the other hand, since conventional wisdom states that gold is obsolete who should care if it skyrockets?

Given the current climate in the markets, if things start to really move in gold and silver they may have their own mania. In fact, a stupendous surge in precious metals may be the final act of the current financial mania! In this case the metals could parabolic spectacularly but have a shorter life span.



Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:40
TED @Tort>(@Tort):
Tort ( 22:27 ) Good drunk joke...burp...Whatta comeback win fer the JAZZ!! The Dollar is down 1% versus the YEN tonight...


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:40
Ken is it goin up or down>(is it goin up or down):

Just read Two Down, Two To Go, on Gold-Eagle. I
would like any gold bear to refute the points made
by the author.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:27
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
Steve Puetz- your info on Jim Blanchard is incorrect. His company is
Jefferson Coin and Bullion, Jefferson Financial 800-877-8847.
He sold Blanchard & Co. several years ago to GE.

Tally Ho


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:27
Tortfeasor Joke for Ted>(Joke for Ted):
Anybody have any word on platinum prices this evening or is Europe and the USA the only ones who need the white stuff? Since I imagine Ted is celebrating the Jazz whoop'n of the Bulls with a bit of brew I thought he could use the following story.

Two drunks are driving down the highway, drinking their beer. All of a
sudden the driver notices lights flashing in his mirror; the cops are on
his tail.

His buddy says, What are we going to do? The driver says, Don't
worry. Just do exactly what I tell you and everything will work out
perfectly.

First, peel the labels off our beer bottles and we'll each stick one on
ourforehead. Then shove the bottles underneath the seat, and let me do
the talking.

They pull over and the cop walks up to the car. He looks at them kind
of funny, but asks to see the guy's driver's license. And he asks
him, Have you been drinking?

Oh, no, sir, the driver replies.

I noticed you weaving back and forth across the highway. Are you
'sure' you haven't been drinking? the cop asks.

Oh, no, sir, the drunk answers. We haven't had a thing to drink
tonight.

Well, I've got to ask you, says the cop, What on earth are those
things on your forehead?

That's easy, Officer, says the drunk. You see, we're both
alcoholics, and we're on the Patch!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:25
EWP EWP>(EWP):
I miss the gold and silver ticker too! I hope it is just a temporary thing. All on one ticker would be nice.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:23
EWP To Steve P.>(To Steve P.):
Thanks ( I'll definitely check out Blanchard ... I have some information some where ) . Do you have any comments ( or anyone else ) about Monex?


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:18
Guzman @Fell for it>(@Fell for it):

D.A., Bungles happen in high places. Brei cheese is
very in these days.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:15
HRK1 @great.white>(@great.white):
Sadly, I, too, miss the old gold and silver board posted here. Can it not be added onto these quotes for palladium and platinum Anyways, I thought this was a forum to primarily discuss Gold!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:14
Tortfeasor Basketball update>(Basketball update):
Jazz come back and win. Mailman delivers big time. Series tied 2-2. Now its time for gold to come back and win.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:14
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Stockton and Malone ... go on with your bad selves!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:14
Arctic Spirit spirit@internorth.com>(spirit@internorth.com):
As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html




Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:04
geff geff@ziplink.com>(geff@ziplink.com):
I sure do miss the old gold and silver price board that used to grace the top of this page.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:00
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
Kid Silver
http://www.tradeshop.com/cgi-bin/cgiwrap/raylc/ajpm/silver.cgi


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:59
Kid Silver _>(_):
Steve Puetz - In your opinion. Which is better Junk Silver, Silver
Eagle Coins or Collectable Coins?

Why?

BTW I really enjoy reading your column at Gold Eagle.
How about an article on silver?


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:57
D.A. the.rumor.mill>(the.rumor.mill):
All:

The latest rumor that I have heard on the silver market has one fund short to the tune of about 60MM oz. Stops are supposedly somewhere around 490 - 500 basis July. Combine this with another rumor of a large OTC option expiring soon at $5.00 and the potential for fireworks is large. Who knows whats fact or whats fiction, reality is that lease rates are jumping and someone or many are bidding aggressively for physical metal.

Last quotes I have in Pa are 215 - 250, Pl 470 - 510. Yen trading around 113. August gold around 347.10.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:55
Kid Silver _>(_):
MR. BEAR - You may have mentioned before. Where do you get these
prices on junk silver?



Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:48
QT @>(@):
Puetz, Cole, Speed, Vronsky, Bear, Mike Sheller, others
Perhaps just a curiosity, but lately Mining Stocks have behaved as if they were the empathetic housewife in the household Gold. You've got to picture Gold as a tempermental Tenor who moves about his house singing Italian Operas. When Gold moves upstairs to the balcony, into higher atmospheres, in search of cleaner more rarified airs, she whiplashes aside Gold, stands on his sholders and does somethig akin to a victory jig for the listening impaired up there for all the neighbors to see, least there be any doubt as to her husbands mood. She intends to amplify.
When Gold's mood darkens, his temper slouches, she's to be found clutching at Gold's ankles, sobbing, and cannot be consoled. Gold can be seen dragging her across the linoleum, as we speak... will somebody please call the police,,,
If and when, in all probability when is the operand, when Gold makes a move, I would predict the same or similar habit by this sensitive damsel. Mining stocks can be said to ride the whip of golds movement. The two are inextricably related, and of late this has been their relationship. At least thats what the neighbors have been saying. Hedges and hysterics aside the jist of what I'm saying here is the rule rather than the exception.
Hope I've got this site right,,,primitive but true, lately,,,
http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/Ssan/goldpric.htm
And as for Silver,,, Sheller called it months ago, now you players out there can either ride or watch. Surf's goin' ta be up in the next 30 days. You can either catch the Kahuna you've been waiting for, or stay on the beach with your Polariods,,,let the ears listen.



Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:36
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
Steve I personally like pre 1965 90% junk. Each coin contains 90% silver and 10% alloy . $1,000.00 face value contains 714 oz of content in pure silver. If you are taking delivery this is the cheapest way to own silver.
You can buy the silver for a few cents below spot and delivery runs about $26.47 US mail insured for each 714 oz.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:27
auroelf a good book>(a good book):
May I recommend The History of Money, by Jack Weatherford, a financial anthropologist. Start with chapter 6, The Golden Curse, then read the whole book front to back. Very interesting development of the evolution of money; man created it in all its evolutionary forms, but our society is also being recreated by it. Interestingly, in a very broad sense, it covers the generally same territory as The Sovereign Individual, which I have been trying to read since Strad recommended it. Sovereign is so depressing that I keep putting it down; The History of Money was such fun I kept picking it up. Both see the end of nation-based paper money as we have known it, replaced by stateless international cyberfinance, in a system that requires new skills and flexibility. But Weatherford has no ax to grind or service to sell, while the authors of The Sovereign Individual do. I view the latter book with great scepticism.
Incidentally, the displacement of paper money by cyber-finance leaves little likelihood of a return to gold money, which was previously replaced by paper. In some respects, our goldbug point of view is doubly outdated if we expect gold ever to serve as a recognized medium of exchange again, except as any other commodity might, for specific uses. Much food for thought.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:24
Steve Puetz @ NJ>(@ NJ):
NJ, Thanks for the info. I will check it out.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:23
Steve Puetz @ PANDA>(@ PANDA):
Physicals are being affected by spreaders. ( See Barron's article this week-end ) Gold-platinum spreaders sold platinum - bought gold. They are getting margin calls, and liquidating. This action is temporarily pushing up platinum, and holding down gold. Once the spreads are unwound, gold will begin to skyrocket as well.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:21
Auric @In it with both feet>(@In it with both feet):

Steve Peutz @ 20:53- If I read Ted Butler, you, and
John Templeton correcly, those who are holding gold
now should hold on to it? I just bought a
s---load!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:20
vronsky GOLD: AN INVISIBLE BULL MARKET?>(GOLD: AN INVISIBLE BULL MARKET?):
One of US best-known Analysts in last 20 years, James Dines, shares bullish report on Platinum & Palladium - & their impact on Gold. He likes Stillwater Mining. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:19
Steve Puetz @ EWP>(@ EWP):
Two long-established precious-metals dealers are Investment Rarities in Minneapolis, MN ( headed by Jim Cook ) @ 800-328-1860 and Blanchard Metals ( headed by Jim Blanchard ) @ 800-880-4653. I think Jim Cook is a little more honest than Jim Blanchard, though. Although they are both good businessmen.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:15
Steve Puetz @ defaults>(@ defaults):
Organ: The only difference this time is that defaults are occurring at a time when the economic stats are good. Unemployment is low, consumer confidence is high. That's why it's important to differentiate between economic stats and financial stats. The financial situation is collapsing globally.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:15
nailz @GRASSROOTS MOVEMENT>(@GRASSROOTS MOVEMENT):
ALL....One thing most have omitted....While I am a proponent of the grassroots movement in gold and silver ( many own instead of few as in the past ) most of you project a majical upwards movement which will look like an immediate upwards prolonged movement on the charts....That will not happen ( barring calamity ) . Major stops must be made along the way to absorb the massive physicals bought lower in the grassroots effort and sold at various benchmarks along the way...They are taking their profits along the way until most of that is reclaimed into the strong hands...Paper collapses ( major stock and/or bond collapses ) could prevent that from happening.... i.e. no cash to repurchase the grassroots metals ( thence no major move upwards ) . Think again.. Do you really want a paper collapse NOT ME...Give me the ebb and flow of the usual cyclial economy, thank you !!!!! I would like to do it as I did in 1980 and again in 1982/83.....


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:12
Organ @ Chicago>(@ Chicago):
Steve Puetz: Try http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

For Chicago futures prices around the clock. Japanese Yen UP against the USD, Swiss and Mark less so. S&P's and currencies at this site.

I've enjoyed your essays very much, Steve. Your thinking is sharp, but after the Leviathan Bull rally on Friday it looks like it will take yet more time to happen. My friend in the bond pits here has suggested that the Chinese were big buyers of T-bonds on Friday ( there was also alot of short covering ) . If the Chinese have been coerced to buy U.S. debt ( amazing -- the Chinese are usually not effectively bullied on anything ) then Clinton's imperial cycle of high budget and trade deficits, balanced by high speculative inflows can continue. I'm going to stop betting against this stock market until I can see that interest for U.S. debt has dried up.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:10
panda @>(@):
Tortfeasor -- Just what I needed, another bookmark! :- ) )


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:09
nailz @GRASSROOTS MOVEMENT>(@GRASSROOTS MOVEMENT):
ALL....One thing most have omitted....While I am a proponent of the grassroots movement in gold and silver ( many own instead of few as in the past ) most of you project a majical upwards movement which will look like an immediate upwards prolonged movement on the charts....That will not happen ( barring calamity ) . Major stops must be made along the way to absorb the massive physicals bought lower in the grassroots effort and sold at various benchmarks along the way...They are taking their profits along the way until most of that is reclaimed into the strong hands...Paper collapses could prevent that from happening.... i.e. no cash to repurchase the grassroots metals. Think again.. Do you really want a paper collapse NOT ME...Give me the ebb and flow of the usual cyclial economy, thank you !!!!! I would like to do it as I did in 1980 and again in 1982/83.....


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:07
BIG TRADER Thoughts>(Thoughts):
Is this news? Can this be true?
ď ď Now that the ďdiscount bid at spotĒ is running 3 or 4 to one
you can be real sure retail isnít going to reach for it! They would
start a free for all! But they have to bid, it isnít going to come
from the sky. No wonder the big holders are ďstanding
downĒ! How are they going to handle the paper that the Asians
are trying to sell? Thatís a good one, because they hold physical
to paper at 20 to 1 and spot will go thru the roof if they dump it!
Well, with a roll-over of most existing deals being the only option, a
good deal of ďold forward gold paperĒ will be put on the street
at whatever price. Nobody is going to pay par for this stuff when
it was written at a premium to spot during a much higher price.
And now that new supply canít be pulled from retail to cover the
paper the writers are the only bidders for their own stuff. But if
any of it trades at a big discount, itís going to hammer whatĎs left
to the point that the banks will call the loans! If one big boy
grabs the physical during the next month or so itíll take the
whole thing down. ď ď




Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:06
nailz @GRASSROOTS MOVEMENT>(@GRASSROOTS MOVEMENT):
ALL....One thing most have omitted....While I am a proponent of the grassroots movement in gold and silver ( many own instead of few as in the past ) most of you project a majical upwards movement which will look like an immediate upwards prolonged movement on the charts....That will not happen ( barring calamity ) . Major stops must be made along the way to absorb the massive physicals bought lower in the grassroots effort and sold at various benchmarks along the way...They are taking their profits along the way until most of that is reclaimed into the strong hands...Paper collapses could prevent that from happening.... i.e. no cash to repurchase the grassroots metals. Think again.. Do you really want a paper collapse NOT ME...Give me the ebb and flow of the usual cyclial economy, thank you !!!!! I would like to do it as I did in 1980 and again in 1982/83.....


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:04
NJ SPOOs>(SPOOs):
Steve Puetz : go http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:03
panda @>(@):
Steve Puetz -- I agree with your assertion that 'tangibles' in your hands are the best form of 'insurance'. The world is piecewise linear. We will not go to stratopheric heights in one day. Initial disbelief in the movement in the metals, as seen in palladium, then a 'hmmm', and in to mining shares they go. Once the metals move up sufficiently, the incremental profit increase, slows markedly in the mining companies.

What most are looking for, IMHO, is the added initial leverage available through options, futures, and stocks. If things are perceived as heading too far 'south', the physical will be the only place to be. If there are any doubters, just look at the palladium 'forward markets' and judge for yourself. The 'final' outcome here, will be very interesting indeed.

Rhodium anybody?


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:01
EWP Question for Steve P.>(Question for Steve P.):
Steve P. - Where would you recommend purchase Silver Maple Leafs and other gold and silver coins ( U.S. and Aussie equivalents ) . I live in the U.S.? Thanks for any help.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:01
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
Looks like it's anti-american night overseas, U.S dollar taking a pounding or should I say a Yenning. Gold and Silver up !!!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:59
Organ @defaults>(@defaults):
Headline in the Chicago Sun-Times for Friday: Hospital swallows $1 billion worth of debt

- this debt was accumulated from 8 years of patient defaults. This money has to be made up by Cook County taxpayers. A few more of these and the Steve Puetz scenerio may be upon us!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:59
D.A. pick.your.banks.carefully>(pick.your.banks.carefully):
Fundy:

If you had put your twenty dollars in a German, Japanese or Italian bank or many others you would have 0. Just because the USA has come out on the right side of a few world wars and has by and large been the most stable and powerful country over the last 70 years doesn't mean this will always be so. While I don't mean to suggest that the downfall of the US is immenent, the stability of the banking system worldwide is in some doubt. The outcome might not be catastrophic in an economic sense, but it may well be so for bond holders. There are any number of countries that may find it easier to just walk from their debts. The South Americans did it en masse not too long ago, why not the Italians, the Belgians, or even gasp, the Japanese.

Holding gold or other physical commodities is just a hedge. The relative value of these things remains fairly constant over intermediate time with relation to the cost of other goods and services. As an investment vehicle, one would hope that the value would appreciate with respect to other goods and services. The case can be made that some commodities are extremely inexpensive based on a number of fundamental concerns. Silver, for one seems to fit well in this category. The grapevine is starting to buzz with respect to this one. It is not a time to be short.

Early levels in the Pa market are 200 - 250. Looks like Nasdaq market makers.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:59
Ken What?>(What?):

Kansas City? I was asking about the Far East.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:56
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Tortfeasor: Is there any good source of overnight quotes on the Internet? The Dollar is falling against the Yen, gold and silver are up. How about S&P 500 futures?


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:53
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Mr. Bear: I have no quarrels with you. I also believe silver coins are a better buy than gold coins. But both will do very well. The Bellmont got the order in reverse yesterday. Silver will be most charming, gold will be a touch behind. However, for wealthy investors, the portability of gold, and its image, makes it the preffered investment. Poor-man's-gold -- silver -- will outperform just because it is more undervalued than gold right now. When I say gold, by default, I usually mean both gold and silver. They both have a long monetary history.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:52
Tortfeasor Basketball break>(Basketball break):
Jazz need a rally in the second half to tie the series. Bulls up about 5 at halftime. Ted, are you out there? I'll send pony express later.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:49
Tortfeasor Update>(Update):
According to http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm gold and silver up smartly in the U. S. pm hours. No word on platinum.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:49
panda @>(@):
speed -- In the last few days I have heard the phrase, The forward markets have collapsed in palladium..., and nobody seems bothered by it! The forward markets are the futures markets. Clearly, derivatives can implode and no one could give a damn, except for my college professors of course! Thet would have flunked me out of school. :- ) )

Apparently, this is one school that you cannot flunk out of! That is, if you are the 'right' students! Think of the implications of what we are witnessing right now. The paper market isn't working in palladium. Debtors ( shorts ) are being given more time to pay their debt back. Clearly, a default has taken place before our eyes, except, that it hasn't, because that would be in bad taste. ;- ) ) George Orwell, where are you! Speak to me from the nether world!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:49
M.Graves mgraves@glinx.com>(mgraves@glinx.com):
Earl, here it is !! Ted: you've gotta sun burned seagull !!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:46
To Ken in Kansas City Don't be nervous>(Don't be nervous):
That's a very interesting question, Ken. Can we get back to it after the break? We'll get back to Ken's question right after this message for Ginsana.

p.s. How about Luv your show? or Thanks for taking my call?



Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:46
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Jack: In normal times, gold mining shares should rise with gold bullion. My greatest concern now is that our credit-based financial system is collapsing. In this case, what will bankers do to mines that are heavily indebted? What will the government do tax-wise if gold mines are the only companies making a profit? I believe coins offer a higher level of safety than gold-shares, under these circumstances, even though the shares may also rise.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:44
LogicBank *)(*>(*)(*):
Inco is the world's largest producer of platinum group metals outside South Africa and Russia, providing about three percent of world supply.

Also,

IF platinum prices affect the oil complex, I think it will be seen in gasoline and not crude prices. Platimum is used 'post crude' in the refining process to increase the octane value of gasoline ( they call it platforming ) .


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:42
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Mike Sheller: When the rubber-band snaps, it will be comforting to have all assets in gold and silver. The increasing rate of bankruptcies, defaults, and delinquencies ( all into record high territory ) suggests that the financial rubber-band is ready to snap any day.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:41
nailz @CONFUSED>(@CONFUSED):
Was it that badly overpriced then, or is it that badly underpriced today It only went to US$45.00 in the next couple of years. HUMMMM


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:37
Ken @Long time listener, first time caller>(@Long time listener, first time caller):

How are Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Singapore doing?


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:36
Speed help!>(help!):
Somebody please explain to me and Mr. Bear why jewelry people don't control the price of gold. I have an intuitive grasp of derivatives, and paper leverage, but don't feel comfortable attempting to debate. Also, please explain what happens when the leverage goes awry and the multiplier effect explodes the bullion price upward.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:34
panda @>(@):
Are some markets closed this evening? EBN commodities page doesn't seem to be updating.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:34
nailz @20 years ago today>(@20 years ago today):
ALL.... 20 years ago today silver closed @ US$4.45/oz. spot


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:29
WDL @currencies>(@currencies):
Could be interesting for gold tomorrow...EBN Markets has Dollar down more than one percent ( 113.46 ) versus the Japanese Yen...Is repatriation far away?


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:26
Speed Math Teacher!>(Math Teacher!):
Fundy: If you put $20 in the bank in 1930 at a constant 4%, compounded annually, you couldn't buy one ounce of gold! You would only have $276.86. You couldn't get 4% for most of that period on such a small amount, but I give you the benefit of the doubt. This is why bonds are such a crummy deal by the way!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:18
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
Speed thank you for your post 08:33. I agree there are other influences on the paper cost of gold. As a commodity, the jewelry producers are the largest influence of Price and Consumption of the yellow metal. Consumption is the key because most people are not going to melt down their jewelry in bad times. If we take Joe consumer out of the game all we are doing is moving gold from one vault to another storage vault and not taking it out of circulation.

Steve: I like silver!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:08
Auric Impressed>(Impressed):

Mike Sheller @ 19:02- Well done. Deserves a spot at
Vronsky's.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:49
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Jack: If you bought an oz at $20 in 1930 and had put $20 in the bank the same day how many ozs could you buy with it today?


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:48
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Mike Sheller 19:02: I reread that post 3 times and I still don't know how you did it; but you managed to speak whole volumes in one paragraph. Gently and succintly at the same time. Outstanding!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:46
Spud Master errors>(errors):
ps - sorry for the spelling errors in previous post - busy dodging twisters and sneezing : )


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:44
Spud Master Day of the Triffids>(Day of the Triffids):
Off topic: Would one of you living in B.C. mention a few lines about taxes and cost of living in Vancouver? I've got a contract situation there for good money - but I am wondering just how much the Cnanadian gov. will want. Might be better off living in this North Texas tornado infest, dusty hell. Thanks, Spud.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:38
The Government Planner's Washington DC>(Washington DC):

Have no fear, we are here to help you on your trip to
UTOPIA. BUBBA has given us his word and we are
responsible.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:37
Auric @home >(@home ):

George S. Cole @ 19:10- Re: Australian Dollar vs.
Gold: Is this the bottom you have been
anticipating? What are the things to keep an eye on
now?


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:32
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
World shattering metals report gives reason for Platinum & Palladium strength. It proves why same explosive price rise in Gold & Silver will occur - Please RELOAD Digest page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:21
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
I will tell you, after reading Ted Butler at gold eagle and The Privateer
A GUY COULD ALMOST GET EXCITED

TALLY HO


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:10
George S. Cole Gold Bottom>(Gold Bottom):
Captain Bill at THE PRIVATEEER reports that gold appears to have bottomed in Austalian dollars. He is not sure that gold has troughed in U.S. dollars terms, but points out that the the yellow stuff tends to make a final low in Australian dollars before troughing in terms of greenbacks.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:10
Mike Sheller Up Up & Away>(Up Up & Away):
bw: I happen to have an arithmetic chart of the Dow since 1900. I get a nosebleed every time I look at it. Yes, 1000 is very nice support. This is the most incredible chart I think I've seen since gold went parabolic in '79. Rydex Ursa fund, anyone?


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:06
Jack Goldminer's>(Goldminer's):

Steve Puetz: In relation to gold mining companies:
How do you see those companies with good current assets,
some in the form of bullion and having successful
production track records ( profits and/or cash flow ) , with
small to very small current liabilities?
I know that blue sky puts cash into the coffers of many
companies, by way of new issues, but the companies that I
like have some blue sky, but seem to want real results
before they decide the route they will take.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:02
Mike Sheller CB's give me the Heebie Jeebies>(CB's give me the Heebie Jeebies):
Steve: Foreign Central Banks have taken such large amounts of US paper because the chairmen and directors of these international institutions act as a club among themselves. They have become more and more brazen in the manner in which they flaunt economic, market, and metaphysical reality. They have become emboldened to do what they do by the ignorance and declining standards of the mass of people, the press, and the economic professions themselves. And they do this all as though they were public servants smoothing the road that elected officials seem to be paving for us all. They are deluded, but we will all eventually suffer. Even an erstwhile ardent objectivist like Alan Greenspan has been lured into participation in the charade. The rubber band must needs stretch to breaking point. When it snaps, it will be most comforting to own some gold.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:01
TED @front>(@front):
Front ( 18:47 ) Thanks Bro!...She must be a glutton fer punishment....eh...
No more hockey for a while and will have to go and try and find a life..
MGraves: Wayne and the boys would have put up a better fight than Lingross and the Flyboys....and to think Eric thought he was too good fer Quebec....


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:52
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Jack: Regarding strange times. We must distingish between the financial condition of the US and the economic condition. The economic numbers that show consumption, production, and employment look great. The financial numbers look terrible. Bankruptcies are at all-time highs. Credit-card delinquencies are at records. People are borrowing to consume, but they can't pay their bills. This is an ominous sign.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:50
Mike Sheller The Wages of Sin>(The Wages of Sin):
Wages vs Gold per oz cost might be misleading. Productivity, technology, etc, may have drastically altered our incomes relative to purchasing power of times past. We may all be better off. What is more to the point, perhaps, is what an ounce of gold will buy you. When an oz was $20 it bought ( roughly ) a decent man's suit, a nite out for a couple of couples at a nice restaurant, & perhaps a show, Or a few days at a modestly decent hotel. A $350 ounce of gold seems to do the same trick these days. If we're making more money, then it means we have more ounces of gold to enjoy. There has to be SOME progress in the Human Condition, eh? But gold has proven constant. What can you buy with a $20 bill


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:47
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

PANDA & MOONEY & TED & TARNISHED:

PANDA: Just ot let you know that you were dead on about the rise in Pal and Plat affecting the price of Oils. Apparently, they are used in the creation of High Grade gasoline. Thanks for the insite.

MOONEY: Congrats friend and take the next 25 one at a time... You know the strain the first 25 caused and you are getting older !! ( :- )

TED: Congrats on the 17 this year .... ROOKIE !!! ( :- )

TARNISHED: Isn't ti wonderful that the truly GREAT hockey players like SteveyY come from ONTARIO ! AND yes, they really do have Cehnehdehiehn citizenship even if they're born in BC ! ( :- )


TTFN


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:46
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Regarding wages and gold: Wages and gold have never had any direct link. There is no logical reason for them to have such a link. Traditionally, paper notes had been receipts for gold. That is why the relationship between the amount of paper in circulation and the amount of gold warehoused is critical. Over-issued gold receipts always led to bank-runs and Treasury-runs, which led to financial collapse. The over-issuance of financial paper in 1997 is one of the most extreme ever. That's why I believe gold must rise to at least $5000. Maybe even as high as $10,000 or $20,000.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:39
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Jack: You're right. Foreigners are going to bare the brunt of US financial losses. In the past, countries had to pledge gold instead of paper. Why foreign central banks have taken US paper in such large numbers is still a mystery. They must have more faith in our government than deserved. They will learn that our government has continually broken its monetary promises. Examples -- 1862, 1933, 1971, next time?


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:33
Jack Strange Times>(Strange Times):

These are very strange times and its very difficult to
find an answer.
On one side, the markets ( At least the Major Stocks ) are
doing extremely well.
On the other hand, I see young homeless families standing
on street corner's, with their Will work for Food
Sign's.
Last summer while on jury duty and walking in from my
parking area, I seen homeless people arising from their
nights sleep from every parking lot on the way to the
courthouse. The politicians love this, as it gives them
a platform to create a little fear, and subsequent power.
Thing's are not so good, but the government statistics
say otherwise. What hell is going on?


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:24
panda @>(@):
Ray and John Disney, thanks for the information!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:22
Duncan To: Lan Man (10:47)>(To: Lan Man (10:47)):
Thanks Lan Man - I'm selling tomorrow!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:15
Duncan To: Ray (10:10)>(To: Ray (10:10)):
Ray - will try and get some names for you ( I no longer live in S.A. ) .
Perhaps John Disney could help ( with some names of hedged S.A. gold
mining companies ) . The only South African gold company that I hold is
apparently about 50% hedged ( Joel ) .


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:02
REB na>(na):
Speed: very cogent comments about wages in gold equivalents since the 30's.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:02
Duncan For: John Disney>(For: John Disney):
John - Do you know what,s happening with Barplats - what is the
possibility of it reopening in the forseeable future?


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:01
Auric @suggestion>(@suggestion):

Surveyor: One idea would be to set up with a deep
discount broker and trade the individual stocks of a
particular index. It has been suggested here that
the HUI index stocks might be better than the XAU
due to less forward selling of gold in those stocks.
I think costs and simplicity would be similar.
Gives you the added advantage of no hidden costs
like 12-b, management fee etc. Might be worth
investigating.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 17:34
vronsky Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near - 6/8/97 Report>(Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near - 6/8/97 Report):
Market maven George S. Cole believes secular market reversals are near: Financials DOWN & Hard Assets UP, perhaps reminiscent of 1930s & 1970s. Cole Market Insights - Click RELOAD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 17:26
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
For Panda
Further to Ray's comments, I agree fully on Western
Deep Levels. But I also feel that Durban Deep is severely
undervalued based on its low cost of reserves and capacity.
It is my favorite long term but it could have a little more
downside for the present. Harmony is also good paricularly
since it took over Unisel.
The problem with Kloof is that it is really 3 mines -
Kloof, Leudoorn, and Libanon. Kloof itself it excellent,
but Im sure the other two mines operate at a loss. If
the gold price went to say 425 for example the whole
complex would become profitable but when the price is
where it is the good operation has to carry the bad
parts of the company.
Beatrix is a great low cost mine - preferable
generally speaking to driefontein but not very exciting.
Fregold is also okay at the price. Avgold could be a
future winner but ONLY at a high god price.
In the Platinum sector, I like Lebowa or maybe PP
Rust as a second choice.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 17:17
Test @test>(@test):

Last post on my screen is 15:53.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 15:53
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
M. Graves: I'm still concerned about our misunderstanding. I would like to apologize and address issue in greater detail off line. If you would send me you send me your email address, I would appreciate it very much. Thanks.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 15:52
Jack Since 1980>(Since 1980):

Mr Bear and Fundy: Since 1980, the supply of paper money
has increased by a considerable amount and so has
inflation. Can you explain that?
My thinking is that coordinted currency manipulations
have kept to some degree, international confidence in
paper money.
It has also raped the citizens of the participating
countries of the hope for a secure future because they
cannot plan for tomorrow in such an atmosphere.
Trust in unbacked paper currencies, means trust in
government and the politicians.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 15:51
Jack Since 1980>(Since 1980):

Mr Bear and Fundy: Since 1980, the supply of paper money
has increased by a considerable amount and so has
inflation. Can you explain that?
My thinking is that coordinted currency manipulations
have kept to some degree, international confidence in
paper money.
It has also raped the citizens of the participating
countries of the hope for a secure future because they
cannot plan for tomorrow in such an atmosphere.
Trust in unbacked paper currencies, means trust in
government and the politicians.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 15:22
Speed @home>(@home):
Surveyor: The Fidelity Select Energy Services fund has been dynamite the last couple of years. Start with the XOI but follow the news on things like offshore leases. Leases are expiring soon on many large parcels and the big companies have to drill or go through the whole bidding process again. No matter what the price of oil, drilling equipment is in high demand. This drives the earnings of the service companies. Of course one little hiccup in the middle east and look out. Hope this helps.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 15:09
Tortfeasor Joke of the day>(Joke of the day):
Given what the market is doing to a lot of us I think this joke, contributed by a fellow contributor to this line may be appropriate.

Two naked statues, a man and a woman, had been standing looking at
each other, in a park, for a hundred years. An angel came to visit them and said that since they had stood there so patiently through all the summers and winters, they would be rewarded by half an hour of human life to do what they had been wanting to do most.

So the two statues came to life, looked at each other, and laughed a
bit and said shall we? then, yes let's and they slipped off behind some bushes and there was a lot of rustling. After a quarter of an hour, they came out from behind the bushes all hot and flustered and happy. The angel said they had only used half their time and why didn't they start all over again. So the statues giggled a bit and the man statue said to the woman statue, OK, let's do it again, only this time we'll do it the other way around. I'll hold down the pigeon and you crap on it!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 15:04
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Mr. Peutz: there is nothing normal about $35 gold. Just a price in time. My questions remain. How much is 350 gold worth in 1970 dollars and who believes the US gov will guarantee to pay a months wages for an oz of it?


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 15:00
GVC @Fidelity weekly close stochastic charts>(@Fidelity weekly close stochastic charts):
The weekly stochatic charts for FSAGX and FDPMX give a somewhat mixed picture. While the %k average has crossed the %d average a few weeks ago in FSAGX it has not done so in FDPMX, but one decent week will do the trick. Technically, both are still in oversold territory, and , as we know, can remain in an oversold condition, but me thinks were about to see some serious upside action. There is one stochastics support trendline on the FDPMX chart that the fund has tested 4 times over the last couple of years. Each time this support line has been touched by the %k line a significant rally has ensued usually 4 to 6 weeks of touching the line. We are presently at that moment.

Either we have a liftoff type of rally this week or we plunge again to test that line one more time. I'm betting on the upside mainly because FDPMX had a strong finish this week gaining over 2% in the last 2 days and finishing above last weeks close in what could be viewed as a reversal week.



Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:37
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Mr. Bear ( the guy who lives in a cave ) : I'm not quite sure where you stand on the markets. Are you bearish on everything, gold, silver, stocks, real estate, the economy, our society? I'm bearish on all of these except gold and silver. They are real money. You should be buying them. You may be the smartest of all by already living in a cave, though.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:31
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Fundy: I base my $5000 + gold estimate on the amount of paper-debt outstanding throughout the world. The relationship between gold and credit outstanding is as low now as it was in 1971 -- when gold stood at $35/ounce. To get back to a normal relationship, gold must rise to thousands of dollars per ounce.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:28
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Eldorado: You make a good point. Gold shares are paper. That is one of the reasons I prefer gold coins over gold shares. Gold shares may do OK in the long-term, but why take the added risk of owning gold shares when you can have complete security in gold coins?


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:25
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Mike Sheller: US Treasury gold began disappearing in large numbers as early as 1931. That is, US citizens began converting their paper dollars into Treasury gold then. The reason the US suspended gold convertibility was because they were losing it. But remember, it wasn't the Treasury's gold. It was gold the Treasury held for the individuals who deposited it into the banking system. The Treasury broke their promise to return it.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:23
Auric @home>(@home):

Surveyor: Hell, jump right in. I'm in the same
boat, I've just learned to go ahead and spout off. I
have developed a taste for shoe leather in the
process!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:21
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
After lunch part II- sorry the mate was hollerin ya'll come, which means get your butt in here.

Another fine stock that I have noticed has leverage is Eldorado and has other merrits worth lookin at. They have jest recognized the value
or rather undervalued reserves in SA and jest bought some, the first American company to venture into South Africa. and D.A has convensed me to take a substancial position in Aurizon- good folks, plenty potential.
Another that has the same merits as Blyvoors is Hecla. When the crowd starts to move they will buy Hecla. Another on the leveraged list is PAASF.
I mentioned Cons Modder in the first piece. Gold in South Africa is not found in the nugget form as found in the western USA. It must be extracted from rock in a crushing and chemical process. But Cons Modder's
property has the highest gold values and closest to nugget form in
Africa. Cons Modder has jest been merged with Harmony. Now that could be a perfect combination, high gold values, goood management, plenty of capitol. Harmony and Durban Deep [Blyvoors merges with DD] are companies that deserve consideration by any serious investor.

Desert time!

Tally Ho


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:08
Surveyor reily@harborside.com>(reily@harborside.com):
Iím still lurking and learning. Hope to someday make worthwhile contributions to this group - the talent here is enough to make me keep my mouth shut and just try to learn for awhile. However, learning usually creates questions. Iíve read numerous posts from contributors who actively trade in and out of their gold mutual funds partially based on technical analysis of the XAU Index. Does anyone use some of the other sector indexes like the Amex XOI for energy funds, or the Amex Gold Bugs Index to help their fund timing decisions? Short Bullís Rydex funds like: OTC Fund = NASDAQ 100 Index and Bond Fund = Long Treasury Bond Futures is what Iím hoping for. I would appreciate any opinions of what Indexes I should exam and what particular mutual funds may closely follow these indexes. I realize the stock bull is very long in the tooth, but are there some sector funds in addition to gold that may do well in the coming economic age? Thank you for your consideration.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:07
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
bw: Several other charts done in constant dollars indicate that your observation is not just probable but likely. One chart in particular was plotted in 1910 dollars from 1913 to the present. Every bull market in the intervening years ultimately corrected to the level of 1913 or lower. If and when this market does the same, that 1913 level would be around Dow 1400. If it overshoots to the downside, as is likely, you're Dow 1000 may even optimistic.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:07
Speed Gov't vs. Mkt>(Gov't vs. Mkt):
Mr. Bear: The government did not ( and cannot ) guarantee the price of gold. They guaranteed the value of paper money by agreeing to swap it for gold at any time. Gold and silver coins were in circulation. Paper currency had Gold Certificate or Silver Certificate printed across the top. Prices of goods and services were effectively set in terms of gold. In the 30's government decided to confiscate gold and make it illegal for American's to own gold. This began the long process of unlinking paper currency from the historical standard. Wages have not increased as much as we think. A worker earning wages worth 1.5 to 2 oz. ( $30-$40 ) of gold per week in 1929, would have to earn $600 to $700 per week today for the same amount of gold, and there are many who would like to have a job paying that much! Gold hasn't changed, it's value hasn't changed, our paper has been greatly depreciated. Our perceptions have been altered.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:04
Arctic Spirit spirit@internorth.com>(spirit@internorth.com):
As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html




Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 13:53
bw Just for fun>(Just for fun):
Get an arithmetic chart of the dow back to 1900 or so. Now since this is just a fun exercise lets not get too fussy about things like inflation or such. Stand back from the chart five or so feet. Stare at the chart for a couple minutes. What do you see? What I see is absolutely no long term support at all until 1000. Now I know this bull will never end. But should we start taking out the thousand point levels on the way down, there is nothing to stop us until 1000. We should get a decent long term bounce there.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 13:51
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
panda, Polarbear, etal- I sold all my SA shares except Blyvoors, before the quarterlies came out because I knew they would not be good. In the second quarter of 1996 we made a small fortune with the SA golds, then we had a fallin Rand and a stable to risin gold price the shares did quite well durin that time now we have the opposite and there is no reason to own them now. I traded in and out of Cons Modder three times for a varry nice profit. The SA mining industry is in another phase of consolidation
mergers and the like to try to keep profitable in this low gold environment. If the price ever starts to rise Blyvoors would have been the name to own but that is a changin and the new company could do verry well, I do not know that though yet, how the leverage will act. So that leaves Western Deep Levels. I have owned Kloof, my brokers pick, quite frankly I do not like it!

Lately I have been tryin to figure out which are the most leveraged mines and the way I do that is on days that the gold price moves up or down and the shares react I print out the Stock Smart chart that rates all the shares by % gain or %loss. So far those on my radar screen
Western Deep, still Blyvoors, Amax, Eldorado, PAASF, SSRIF etc.
I am still adding to tht list.

While I wait my largest junior position is in AZS, for obvious reasons.
Since there ain't no gold in the swanps of Borneo then the largest proven
reserve in the world is the properites held by Bema and Arizona Star and Bema has AZS up for sale. It don't take too much smart to figure out that one day soon one of them big mining companies can not stand it another day and will have to have AZS. Nuff said, lunch time!!

Tally HO


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 13:40
Arctic Spirit spirit@internorth.com>(spirit@internorth.com):
As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 12:57
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
You got the guaranteed price right Mr. Bear. I recall a $20 an oz guarantee. What is that in 1997 dollars. People worked for $5 a week during the depression, those that had a job. So by that standard gold was worth a months pay an oz. That means about $3500 an oz in 1997 if you put an average salary at $35,000 to $40000 a year. Anyone know the corect figures for todays average salary? Anyone think the US government is going to guarantee gold at a month's pay per oz if/when we have a crash.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 12:17
vronsky Just How High Can A Bull Fly? PART - V>(Just How High Can A Bull Fly? PART - V):
McAlvanyís MELTDOWN OF 97 - Latest chapter: ďTHE U.S. STOCK MARKET: WILL 1997 BE THE YEAR OF THE DEATH PLUNGE?Ē CLICK RELOAD at Gold Digest section:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 12:09
bw Re: Mike Sheller, contracting>(Re: Mike Sheller, contracting):
Mike: After the implosion of our debt bubble, the values of gold will be known to almost everyone. With gold's chief value being that of honesty. The printing presses may roll big time or perhaps not. The end result will be the same. Within days weeks or months, the financial system will realize the value of all unsecured debt that is no longer politically useful, very close to zero.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 11:44
P.R. Russia on borrowed time>(Russia on borrowed time):
Russia - the vacuum cleaner

http://www.russiatoday.com/rtoday/business/news/02.html


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 11:42
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):

Golds price was regulated until 72, so at the time of the 29 crash the profits of gold mining stocks were guaranteed.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 11:26
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
The second CB to raise rates since April. Considering the recent article about an average 4% rate rise over 2 years, get ready for more rate rises & market falls....The weapon in the Banks fiscal killing fields.

SYDNEY MORNING HERALD Monday, June 9, 1997
Bank of England lifts interest rates
By GLENDA KORPORAAL in London

The Bank of England has taken the first opportunity to show its newly acquired independence by increasing British interest rates by 0.25 per cent on Friday.

The increase, which comes as the Reserve Bank of Australia has been cutting rates, was made at the first meeting of the Bank of England's new monetary policy committee.

The bank increased rates to 6.5 per cent because of its concerns that the strength of the economy would put further upward pressure on inflation and overshoot the target maximum of 2.5 per cent.

This is the first time in its 300 years that the bank has been able to decide interest rates rather than the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

The move to give the bank control over setting interest rates was one of the first decisions of the Blair Labour Government after its election on May 1.

The bank's decision - ahead of the Blair Government's first Budget on July 2 - shows its desire to carve out a reputation for being tough on inflation.

Until recently British financial markets have been treated to the embarrassing spectacle of the governor of the Bank of England going cap in hand to argue for an increase in interest rates each month, only to be rebuffed by a Chancellor whose primary concern was not to upset voters before the election.

The change has already led to a reduction in the premium paid by British borrowers on world financial markets compared to other European economies as international investors have become more confident that an independent Bank of England would be more vigilant in controlling inflation.

The bank's decision has come despite concerns that it may put upwards pressure on sterling.

Its new independence comes as Germany's Bundesbank - the most independent
central bank in the world - last week won its fight with German Chancellor Dr Helmut Kohl not to have the profits from the revaluations in the country's gold reserves included in the German Budget for 1997.

The bank was concerned the move was aimed at artificially boosting the German Budget for 1997 so the Government could meet Maastricht Treaty requirements for joining the single currency in January 1999 without taking tough action on the deficit. The battle ended in humiliation for Mr Kohl.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 11:15
Lan Man Just a minor delay, like 6 months!>(Just a minor delay, like 6 months!):
Panda: On the post of Russian delays dealers added that tension may persist through June until there is clear evidence that Russia, the biggest supplier, has begun a delayed 1997 export campaign.

Any further delays and the 1997 export campaign will be into 1998!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:59
panda @>(@):
Last two stories on the list are in reference to Taiwan gold buying and Korean tensions. If no one is interested in this gold stuff, then why is everyone hiding and hoarding the stuff? We may look like loonies here ( sorry Canadians, no ref. to your money! ) for attempting to play this metals game, but others elsewhere in the world are doing it by the, 'bagfull'. It looks like the only bags that they'll be holding are ones full of gold and silver! BBML.............


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:53
panda @weekend.stories>(@weekend.stories):
Some light Sunday morning reading.


http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/08/y0023_z00_2.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/08/z0009_3.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/08/f_gm_y000_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/08/z0009_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/07/z0009_2.html





Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:47
Lan Man Silver Companies>(Silver Companies):
Duncan: ie Silverado: From the Northeast Mining Investment conference, a report by John Doody - SILVERADO keeps raping its shareholders by issuing more stock in the form of options to insiders at below-market prices. These guys then sell their free-trading shares into the market, netting a handsome profit.

Yes, I know others do the same thing, and as a rule I try to stay away from them. If I own shares in a company that announces the type of double dealing as above, I dump them and go on.

Remember the 6 Ps - and People should be at the top of the list. Ross Beatty and Bob Quartermain are two that you can trust. Companies that they are involved in include: PAASF, SSRIF. Both are pure silver plays, and yes, other companies do mine alot of silver but I look at them as gold plays with a silver bonus.



Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:29
panda @>(@):
Ray -- If you trade the JSE, could you tell what you think of Kloof mines. They've been pretty beaten up over the last year and a half. Are there fundamental reasons for this? Or is it a lack of interest in the SA gold stocks in general? Western Deep seems to be holding its own after the last plunge to $24+. I am totally clueless on Kloof. I can't even find any decent info on the 'net. Then again, maybe this is my answer?


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:10
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
Duncan- would you care to elaborate. I trade the JSE every day but try to limit my comments to stocks that are listed in the USA.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:09
vronsky GOLD: AN INVISIBLE BULL MARKET?>(GOLD: AN INVISIBLE BULL MARKET?):
One of US best-known Analysts in last 20 years, James Dines, shares bullish report on Platinum & Palladium - & their impact on Gold. He likes Stillwater Mining. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:06
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
vronsky and George S. Cole- I also agree that the times we are experiencing are a prelude to the 1920-30 period and those of you that got the what it takes to buy gold shares might jest have what money is
when the dust settles to buy other things on sale!

Tally Ho


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:05
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
Sorry, following URL is better - Please RELOAD Digest page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:04
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Vronsky: One missing condition for the 1929-1935 comparison is the US governments backing of gold's price. It must have had some effect on gold's price and also gold mining shares and their dividends. How does this effect the colors of the scenario you paint.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:01
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
vronsky- that piece by Ted Butler is a MUST READ by every serious investor!! THANKS


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 09:57
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
World shattering metals report gives reason for Platinum & Palladium strength. It proves why same explosive price rise in Gold & Silver will occur - Please RELOAD Digest page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler529.html


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 09:53
vronsky Gold Stocks and Bear Markets>(Gold Stocks and Bear Markets):
I totally support George S. Cole's opinion that the current GOLD/DOW relationship today is more like that of the 1929-1935 and 1973-1974 periods. In each bear market of the Crashes, gold stocks appreciated hundreds of percent while the DOW was totally decimated. IMHO we have very similar conditions today for an encore of 1929-1935 and 1973-1974 market overtures.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 09:41
Prognosticator Elliottwave>(Elliottwave):
Mooney - As you suggested, I am a newbie, and didn't intend to step on anyone's handle. With your permission, I will continue to use Prognosticator but always with the Elliottwave address.
I think that I have identified a bull market termination pattern in gold called a 5th wave flat. If I am correct, gold will go down to about 338, basis the June contract, then up, with an initial target of 351, before a significant drop in price, then up again through late summer or fall.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 09:36
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Jack: Certainly not all who post here are still holding on to 800+ gold
but a lot have that figure in their mind--where do you think the $1000 or 2000 estimates are based on? With regard to making money over the last 2 decades it certainly could have been done with gold or copper or rhodium especially rhodium if only once. The rumoured shortage of silver is certainly 15 years old. Perhaps it would be about $2 if there was no shortage?

I wonder what the price of gold would be in 1980 dollars. Cars that I buy are up about 300% since 1980. Maybe gold in 1980 dollars is currently worth about $150?



Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 09:12
Predictor @>(@):
Duncan: Didn't consider Silverado because I haven't read much on them. I do have the information sitting at my feet ( as I post ) and will peruse it. I have other companies in mine ( because I've been following them ) . I believe some takeovers are very possible in 1998.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 08:33
Speed keep thinking>(keep thinking):
Mr. Bear and RJ et. al: Your postings are beneficial to this site because they compel us to refute solid arguments which are backed by data. Please keep posting. Be aware of a couple of things:
1. Bullion trading is not limited to commercial producers and jewelry makers per one of your posts yesterday. Two other groups impact prices, speculators and investors. Speculators like the U.S. Tiger fund have a tremendous short-term impact on markets, just look at Platinum/Palladium. Investors who purchase bullion and mining stocks are a wild card, hard to predict. Keep in mind that the mining stocks are a small arena and could be completely dominated by the same amount of money currently invested in say Coca Cola.
2. See George S. Cole's excellent posts detailing why this market differs from the one's charted and graphed yesterday by the sceptics.

As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another. Keep making us think!

The wise man sees trouble coming and hides himself, the fool goes on and is punished. I'm hiding my financial self behind bullion and mining stocks.



Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 08:25
TED @spectacularday>(@spectacularday):
A beautiful day on the ocean and I'm outta here.....


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 08:17
Speed Mining Stocks and a Bear Market>(Mining Stocks and a Bear Market):
George S. Cole: Your positive outlook for mining stocks is supported by an article on Vronsky's site: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/great_crash.html

My understanding is that if you bought Homestake Mining in 1929 and held it, you made money all the way through the 1930's. The flight to quality by scared capital will move to mining stocks first IMHO, because stocks are what the investing public believes will succeed. Bullion will follow. Mutual funds are already making strong plays in the metals, witness the Tiger fund and platinum/palladium.

Vronsky: Thanks for the data on Stillwater.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 08:10
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort: Got yer LJ and loved it but post it here....hahaha...Was out fer most of yesterday and had company ( ? ) over last night....so have been out of the cyber-world.....


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 07:39
TED @MOONEY>(@MOONEY):
Mooney ( 1:53 ) Congrats on 25th and party....We will make number 17 this summer....Was Rangoon invited th the party...hahahaha


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 07:37
George S. Cole Gold Stocks and Bear Markets>(Gold Stocks and Bear Markets):
Gold stocks have generally declined during bear markets. But the situation today is very different than it was at the start of previous bears.

Gold stocks have generally risen during previous bull markets, sometimes quite sharply. In 1987, for example, gold stocks soared along with the rest of the market. Today, by contrast, gold stocks have been dropping for 17 months, while the overall stock market soared. Gold stocks now are far cheaper relative to stocks overall than they were at the beginning of any previous bear market, with the possible exception of 1973.

Much will depend upon gold bullion's performance during the looming bear. Bullion has usually headed lower during previous bears, with the notable exception of 1973-75. But bullion too is far cheaper relative to the stock market than it was at the start of previous bears ( 1973-75 excepted ) . The Dow Industrials now is selling at over 22 times the bullion price. It was just 6 times the bullion price in 1987 and 8 times the bullion price in 1990.

With stocks more overvalued today than at any time in history, the next bear market will much more severe than most past bears -- more like 1929-32 or 1973-75, than 1987 or 1990. Gold generally does best in severe secular bears where the very future of the system comes into question.

We must also remember that the public is far more heavily involved in the stock market today than it was at previous peaks. Hence the political and economic implications of a severe and/or extended bear market are far greater than in the past. Very positive for gold.

I've said it before and will say it again, gold does best when capital starts to run scared. And I submit that capital will be very scared once the next bear market is in full swing.



Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 06:37
Duncan To: Ray 16:29 (Sat)>(To: Ray 16:29 (Sat)):
Ray - there are a significant number of marginal gold mines in
South Africa ( not listed in North American stock exchanges ) that are
hedged.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 06:14
Duncan To: Predictor>(To: Predictor):
Predictor ( 21:58 ) Are you possibly considering Silverado ( GOLDF ) as one of those juniors that will benefit from a takeover? I have heard talk ( was it on Kitco? ) that they have properties in Alaska that either Barrick or Placer Dome are interested in.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 02:45
The Government Planner Washigton DC>(Washigton DC):

We have decided ( IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE ) to keep the
dollar at its present level relative to the currencies in
order to kick start their economies.
The recent opinions of the Budesbank in their argument
with their government, have told us to leave gold alone,
and allow it to seek its own level.
Additionally we no other recourse, but to keep the stock
market within 15% of its recent highs, by various
government interventions. The small stocks will offer an
arena to keep the US investor from losing large amounts.
While our trade deficit will increase considerably, we
plan that when the deficit figures approach $280 billion.
that we will let the dollar slide.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 02:08
RJ substitute an s>(substitute an s):
Re: prior. I refuze to post anything further without cheking the speling


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 02:05
nikita nik@cal.usa>(nik@cal.usa):
I just like to add some to your discussion wether gold stocks
will go up in the bear market if gold will rise
Suppose gold up to $450 majors want to cash in and rise prduction
And here it is BGO sitting on 30 mln, drilling one more hole in the hill.
.
PDG got smart I will pay BGO $50/oz ( it will give BGO 15$ US ) mine it 150$/oz get some nice 200$
after tax, rise divident for my shareholders.BGO shareholders should not refuse they have been waiting for so long and it is BEAR MARKET
So PDG aproaches BGO with 1.5 $ bln cash and BGO says See this jents over there? ..
ets
Now gess in what direction which gold minning stocks will go
if stock market crash, and gold will go to $450


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 02:04
RJ No time now>(No time now):
Eldorado - I kikcked it and it didn't move. I'll give a more detailed responce when I have a chance.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 02:01
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
Goldbug Omega - Itís nice to see the humor appreciated, thanks.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 01:58
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
Hear ye - Much have I traveled in the realms of gold, And many goodly states and kingdoms seen. ( Keats ) To all who have tolerated and the few who have appreciated my stampede through your village, thanks. Some have said that I get into faces just to count how many are left when the smoke lifts. The remainders, while different, usually share some common characteristics: Jaw set square with willingness to speak true, keen nose to detect the slightest foul stench of deceit or hypocrisy, and cunning eyes to take the sum of what they see. There are those in this group with stout hearts and clear minds and I look forward to future discourse. My tempo is usually very measured with only occasional bouts of fever. Forward.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 01:53
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
I see that someone likes the name of my consort's handle so much that they have decided to use it as their own. It is either a newbie or a long time lurker trying to steal goat. Good Luck Prognosticator!
Speaking of getting goat; even the distortions and outright lies of John ( hepcat/dragoo/Cool Water/Crab Rangoon/ Parlez Vous/ Zoinks Man/Moa/Mental Case/ can't even get me down today:
as My family and friends surprised me with a 25th Wedding anniversary party. They planned it to a 'T' and my wife and myself were truly surprised and shocked. And a wonderful time was had by all!
Will you still need me, will you still feed me when I'm 64. - Beatles 1967.
And once again, Congrats to you and yours also Mr. Front and consort!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 00:32
Jack To Fundy>(To Fundy):

Fundy ( 11:29 ) Its not like everyone here bought gold at
$800+ and are still holding and waiting for it to go
higher.
Actually there were many opportunities in both gold and
the mining stocks over the past 20 years.
I feel almost sure that gold amd silver at an
impenatrable base of $500 and $10 respectively would do
most, just fine.
But when considering all that paper manufactured by just
interest payments and the stock markets; both metals
should be much higher.
This doesn't consider the production supply deficits for
those metals.
I feel sure that their prices are being skillfully
rigged, by ebulent stock markets, currency manipulations
and so on. ( NOW WHO'S CAPABLE OF THIS? )
They make Bre-x and Delgratia look like kid stuff.


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 00:06
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
There have been many postings here regarding a general decline in metals stocks during a stock market decline. I understand the natural attraction of stocks in profitable companies, but I fail to understand the attraction to paper in these times! Any kind of paper!! Does everyone still think that these times are 'as normal' as previous times since the Great Devaluement? That one took a fraction of what the next one could bring! Paper? I don't believe it'll 'be' worth what it used to be! In a BIG way!! Many here should be expanding their conceptions of the possibilities that can easily arise give even a modicum of difficulties in handling the debt! There are a LOT of fires out there that are bent on escaping the guardians. Just let a 'bit' more breeze move them! Just let a small mistake get compounded. Just don't be one of those who get caught holding 'the bag'!


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 23:42
vronsky GOLD: AN >(GOLD: AN ):
One of US best-known Analysts in last 20 years, James Dines, shares bullish report on Platinum & Palladium - & their impact on Gold. He likes Stillwater Mining. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 23:37
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- You have posted that you see gold as being 'dead' for the rest of the year. I'm not saying that view is right or wrong. Just trying to quantify your rational/basis behind that thinking. I would appreciate a response. Thanks.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 22:56
lurker hi ho silver>(hi ho silver):

anyone know where I can buy 1,000 silver maple leafs. I dont mind getting screwed but I dont want to get raped.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 22:44
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
REB: Do you have a chart showing the price of gold back to 1920 in constant $?


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 22:24
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
Mike Sheller and all you others out there tryin to figure out how to play it- I will say it again, iffin gold goes to $2000 or sometnin above the current level and the stocks go down with the market the best stocks to own are the ones that pay dividends soos you win either way. The only stocks I know of that traditionally pay their share holders, are the SA shares. Be sure and buy those that have not sold forward, the only one I know of for sure that is sold forward is Western Areas, that could change by the day.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 22:16
prognosticator Elliottwave>(Elliottwave):
Perhaps we are at a major turning point in the S&P. If I am correct in the identification of the topping pattern, it is a rising wedge, which is considered very bearish. Elliott Wave teaches that in a rising wedge pattern, a throw-under frequently occurs. A throw-under is a very brief penetration of the lower rising trendline. This happened on 5-30. The throw-under is soon followed by a throw-over, which is a very brief penetration of the upper rising trend line. The throw-over is supposed to happen on heavy vol. The vol. was only moderate, so this might negate the effectiveness of the pattern. The throw-over occurred on 6-7. Very soon after the throw-over, a dramatic change in trend occurs.
Elliott Wave theory holds that a rising wedge pattern only happens at the very end of a bull market move, and is an indication of the exhaustion of the move.
I think that Monday will start off with an up move, which will be reversed, into the start of the A Corrective Wave down. The Corrective B Wave up will likely establish new highs, but the final Corrective C wave down will be large, and very frightening for many investors.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 22:06
Predictor @>(@):
I realize the metals are also political. However, my predictions are based on economics. With that said, I believe that are several countries and/or intl. issues that have strong possibilities to shake the markets ( which way; who knows; depends on what specific circumstances ) . Included but not limited to:
U.S. ( you name it ) , Canada ( Quebec issue ) , Japan ( banking system ) , China ( MNF status, HK, etc. ) , EMU, North Korea, Middle East, Russia ( as we have already seen; production related ) , and South Africa ( of course; production related ) .


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 21:58
Predictor @if I knew exact dates and times, I'd be rich>(@if I knew exact dates and times, I'd be rich):
George Cole: I guess similiar theories. I see the bull peaking near month's end ( I don't know an exact date ... I don't claim to be psychic ) .
I feel pretty confident about sometime in July being tough on the market ( general and metals ) . Good accumulation period for metals. I predict August as a rebound month for both. A bear market following for general market through February ( with some rebounds here and there ) and gradual bull for metals ( gold and silver in particular ) to run out until March or so. These forecasts have to do with economic projections ( interest rates, business cycles, inflation, debt ( esp. consumer ) , inventories, etc. ) . I believe this is an exceptional opportunity ( especially July ) to accumulate quality mining companies ( seniors; juniors and growth companies that will be producing a decent amount by January or have quality sites that could be takeover targets {selling individual or acquisitions of entire mining companies} ) . In my view, some of the majors look good and some of them stink. There are some junior and growth companies that will pound the hell out of some shorts ( especially those who I think may be prime takeover targets ) .


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 21:51
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
M. Graves: My comments were meant in an entirely jocular vein. My sincere apologies for the perceived offense and for not making that crystal clear.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 21:47
Predictor @>(@):
Frenchman ( 2 something post ) . July $330-345 ( that will be down from end of June ) . My prediction at least. I don't have an exact number magic ball to give exact numbers and dates. : )
I believe July will be an exceptional accumulation period.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 21:26
NJ joe>(joe):
MR.BEAR : for that please check Steve Puetz, 19:35. money managers will buy gold in a market panic because they know its value and role, despite paying lip service to the pc dictates of CBs. as if you dont know all this : )


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 21:25
tradered traded@tminet.com>(traded@tminet.com):
Schippi- Great page and useful links for Fidelity Select Sector investors. Thank you.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 21:13
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
NJ: Who is going to be the buyers? In reality there are two players, the CBS and the Jewlery manufactures. As we all know the CB's are net sellers or holders, not buyers. The only player left is joe consumer buying jewlery or coins. If the markets crash joe consumer is taken out of the game.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 21:10
Bfiler @Home>(@Home):

Everytime I read about a referal to a comment or website, it's the same
2 or 3 websites....guru at Gold Eagle, blah blah blah. This is real scientific research and broad references brought here. If I had played ANY short term metals trade off the comments on this board since I started reading 6 months ago I'd be broke! Folks the kids on the AOL Iomega board made way better calls the blindfolded traders around here do.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 20:54
NJ joe>(joe):
MR.BEAR : yes, joe consumer buys some jewelry; but his money in the financial markets is managed by some mutual fund manager entrusted with his employer's pension plan. the little he has on his own is also in mutual funds, recommended by a relative he trusts. we are talking about money management by major financial institution managers, once the panic sets in.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 20:13
Mike Sheller The Lines are drawn>(The Lines are drawn):
rt: The most important line of all connects the April '95, Jan/Feb '96, and Feb '97 Silver peaks. This line, by the way, goes back to connect the '83 and '87 peaks in silver. A breakout from this line will take silver out of the downtrend it's been in for 14 years!!! The price level for the breakout is roughly $5.20 at this point. I think your 5.90 is a good guess as to where silver will run if this breakout occurs. ( I'm looking for 6.25 myself ) .


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 20:09
Byron @ The Up and Coming Future:>(@ The Up and Coming Future:):
Like Y.Auger's projections re: XAU in his commentary and on the Weekly Chart. After accessing the Daily Market Wrapup page, scroll down and click on Weekly Chart. ... http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 20:04
Mike Sheller $2000 in 2000>($2000 in 2000):
Steve: Gold shares didn't start to rise in the depression until gold was confiscated and the dollar devalued in terms of gold. However the point is well taken that a stockmarket catastrophe may affect mining shares negatively as well, at least early on. I too expect gold to be in the 1000's of dollars in the very early years of the next century.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 20:03
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
Hey Ted : Seagull is a hovering!!!!!


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 20:01
RT @silver to $5.90>(@silver to $5.90):
I know I've been irrationally exuberant in previously posted forecasts, but I still believe in $5.90 silver. Now I will extend that price to the mid to end of July time frame. Please review posted weekly w/stochastics chart below ( I like drawing lines!!! ) :




Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:58
TED @mainlander>(@mainlander):
MGraves: It's time ta drop the puck....Go Flyers!


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:44
JDM jdmcclu@ibm.net>(jdmcclu@ibm.net):
Have been lurking for some time and wanted to thank you all for your contributions.



Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:42
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
GVC: Something similar to what you describe happened from 1929 to 1935. During the last half of October 1929, gold shares ( include Homestake ) lost about half of their value. By 1932, when the Dow hit bottom, the gold shares were up slightly. However, gold shares did not soar until 1932-1935 when the Dow began to recover. Generally, gold shares do not behave very well when the stock market is in a bear market.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:41
Mike Sheller The Astrological Investor>(The Astrological Investor):
steve puetz: I concur. I see the Canadian Silver Maple Leaf as the people's investment for the turn of the century. An ounce of pure silver in a beautifully proprtioned coin with a face value of $5 Canadian. Hey, worst comes to worst, you can at least buy a burger and fries or a few gallons of gas with the coin. Best case scenario the six bucks you'll pay now will be 12, or 18, or 24 down the road.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:35
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Mr. Bear: When the monetary demand for gold once again emerges, it will push aside jewelry demand. Gold will then become too expensive for consumers. It will soar to $5000 per ounce or higher. Monetary demand for gold always pushes consumer demand aside.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:35
GVC @Steve Puetz>(@Steve Puetz):
Steve Puetz: continuing the thread of gold stocks in a market crash, I believe that they will probably have a significant decline with the general market but only after they have made, at least, an initial run-up to test their highs. At that point, they will probably be relativlely overbought and will easily sway to the general sentiment created by a crash or the beginnings of one. But, I also do not believe that their decline will be anything more than a normal correction to work off the overbought situation.

Once the crash is over ( usually the tail end of a major decline ) , I believe that investors will begin to look at them much more seriously for 'insurance' purposes out of fear of possible future declines in the general market, especially once they see how well they 'hold up' during the initial decline phase. This will also create renewed interest in the metals themselves.



Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:34
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day comparison and FSAGX hourly charts
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:33
ACW crash>(crash):
There has been some talk that if the general market crashes it will be good for precious metals.

Past facts show this to be far from the truth.

When the general stock market goes down, the gold stocks go down faster,longer.

Past down markets:

Major downs:

- - - INDU - - XAU

1987 -40.3% - -46.5%

1990 -18.6% - -37.8%

1994 -10.8% - -27.6%

1997 -10.6% - -25.9%

Days down:

1987 57 Days 58 Days

1990 37 107

1994 64 82

1997 25 41

The 1997 Dow drop was from 03-11 to 04-14.
The XAU drop was from 03-03 to 04-28.

This history shows us that any decline in the general market
could be a sell signal for the gold stocks.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:31
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Kid Silver: Gold and silver coins are the best investment now. They are money external to our credit-monetary system. Gold shares have an unnecessay element of risk in them. Bre-X is one example. Another possibility is a wind-fall profits tax on gold mines when gold prices go thru the roof. You can take your gold coins with you if you need to leave the country. You can't remove the mine from physical location.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:29
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
NJ: Joe consumer is the big money. Jewelry acounts for 80% of production.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:25
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
NJ: You're right. But anyone who wants to salvage something from a collapsing credit-money system will move into gold and silver. To many debtors are unable to meet their current repayment schedules. When too many debtors become insolvent, a credit-money system collapses. That's happening now. Gold and silver are the only real non-credit money alternatives available once our present system collapses.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:25
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
Earl : The post by Earl jr. was not me !!! and I haven't been on a trip lately. When I post , you will see my real name and nothing else. I am a lurker and I only post when the topic is of interest and when I'm not at my real job!!! So I would appreciate if you would not slander me , I have done nothing to you or anyone else. If it is a battle of wits you want , then you've come unarmed!!!and I will oblige. Thank-you


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:17
Kid Silver _>(_):
Steve Puetz - If mining stocks might go lower in a crash, what do you
suggest? Bullion coins? Collectable gold and silver coins?


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:16
ACW smokey>(smokey):
Earl: There definitely was a swirl of smoke and a loud thought voice telepathically told me to send forth the message! :-o ) )


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:09
NJ joe>(joe):
MR.BEAR : joe consumer does'nt have a prayer in the coming crash. we are not talking about him. we are talking about big money seeking a safe haven. where do you think that's going to go.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:08
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
ACW: You been talkin' to cherokee this weekend. I can tell. .... ( :- ) )


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 18:59
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
Presents a world shattering essay explaining reason for Platinum & Palladium strength. It proves why same explosive price rise in Gold & Silver will occur - Gold Digest:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler529.html



Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 18:05
ACW The god's have spoken!>(The god's have spoken!):
All your chart prognostications and mental gymnastics are for naught.

The God's have set the Golbug's an OMEN!

Touch Gold 1st.

Silver Charm 2nd.

Sorry Mr Bear!

Next week strange miraculous happenings are going to transpire in the Gold and Silver markets. The God's have spoken!!!


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 17:47
TED @belmontstakes>(@belmontstakes):
Exacta....Touch GOLD wins...SILVER Charm a close second....


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 17:29
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):

Gold demand is up but so are the markets. Ask yourself what would average joe consumer do if his portfolio crashed? Would he run out and buy gold jewery or gold coins. I think not!!


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 17:17
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
ALL: Look at kitco 10 year historical data graph and show me why you believe a stock market crash like we had in Oct 87 would be bullish for gold? Oct. 87 gold was $465.36 today it's $344.00 or 26% less. All Goldbugs should pray that the stock market does not crash or you could lose an additional 26% on gold investments.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 17:12
TED @Belmontstakes>(@Belmontstakes):
....And Touch Gold a close second...


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 16:48
TED @belmontstakes>(@belmontstakes):
Gotta go with SILVER Charm.......


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 16:45
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Fundy: I've also been wrong about the stock market bull, but 10,000 seen absurd at this point. AAII bulls are at 52% this week, one of the highest levels of past 10 years. CBOE call/put ratio very high. These are good contrary indicators. Volume momentum is declining. New highs are contracting. Mutual-fund inflows are declining. Speculators are pouring in. Junk-bond sales are sky-rocketing. All signs of termination and/or over-heating of financial markets.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 16:39
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Notnick: The platinum move is probably for real. Platinum loan rates of 150% indicate an extreme shortage in the cash market. Once the gold-platinum speads are unwound, gold could easily make an up-move as explosive as platinum's. Remember, gold has been forward-sold and loaned just like platinum. It's interesting that platinum has gone from a 2-year low to the highest point since 1990 in the span of a few weeks.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 16:32
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Lan Man: There have been 3 separate mailings of Total Collapse. I mailed the first set on Wednesday, June 4th. The second set was mailed on Friday, June 6th. The other mailing was done by Newsletter Systems in Minneapolis, MN -- I'm not sure when they did their mailing. If you give me your name, I'll let you know if you were on one of my mailing lists.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 16:29
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
Steve Puetz- I prefer your version of the gold and stock prediction.

Did yall hear that good ole boy, one of them many that call up CNBC and want to know jest what they should do because they are JEST GETTIN STARTED WITH A PORTFOLIO Hell boy, BUY with both hands!!

Now with that mentality don't you know when this thing does turn and these BOYS wantin to be in stocks they are goin to head to the gold
funds like crazy. Iffin you think 1993 was fun especially those of you that were in the Lexington Stragetic Investment fund, up 297%, that was a preview of what is to come!

Some uninformed sole yesterday refered to the forward selling of gold by the mines. I believe that most of the forward selling had been by the North American mines and that might be a cause of the gold price being
negatively effected for a bit. The only SA mine that I know of for sure that did a big forward sell was Western Areas. Western Areas was also the reason that Lexington Stregetic Investments had that find record in 1993.

Tortfeasor- THANKS FOR THE HUMOR, YOU OUGHT TO WRITE A BOOK

Tally HO


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 16:28
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Speed: I also read the Barron's article this morning. One of the key points was that spreaders were unwinding spreads where they had previously bought gold and sold platinum. But the platinum premium over gold kept getting larger. Margin calls have now forced these spreaders out of the market. The past few days, they have been buying platinum, and selling gold. Once the unwinding of spreads stops, gold will rise.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 16:23
steve puetz bpuetz.holli.com>(bpuetz.holli.com):
George Cole: Glad to see that you agree that a stock market crash is the key to gold's revival. Really, it's more than that. It's the whole financial-asset mania that will implode once stocks begin to fall. Once the financial collapse begins, the only alternative will be commodity-money -- mainly gold and silver, but also platinum.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 16:12
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Goldbug23: Once gold bullion moves higher, and the stock market begins to crash, gold stocks will behave better than other stocks, but they still may go lower in a crash.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 15:58
tarnished motoring@dinghy>(motoring@dinghy):
Mooney: Most all things run adrift, and it too has sailed under the bridge....we both know Ballard is a promising company and may provide a boon for Pt, I prefer to focus on that and the fact that it's a BEAUTIFUL
hot sunny day here; And to live life, I can't be stuck on a computer terminal all day.....Au's not the only thing that has glitter!
TTFN


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 15:50
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
Glenn- you been standin in font of that FAN too long and caught the same disease as the rest of them traders. Better bet you some vitamin AU!

Tally HO


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 15:15
vronsky Just How High Can A Bull Fly? - PART V>(Just How High Can A Bull Fly? - PART V):
McAlvanyís MELTDOWN OF 97 - Latest chapter ( V ) : an indepth economic & precious metals analysis. Must read for serious investors. CLICK RELOAD at Gold Digest section:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 14:58
Mike Sheller Contracting>(Contracting):
bw: A scary and depressing scenario. Since this is a gold site, I wonder how you see the shiny yellow doing in such a case. Do you see out and out debt forgiveness ( or should I say forgetness ) ? Or do you see the printing presses rolling after the first deflationary wave in order to preserve the full faith & credit, etc, of US debt instruments?


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 14:43
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
bw: Excellent .... and that ain't fiction. Thoughts of depression and comparison to those of the past should also include a reflection of our presently diminished natural resource asset base. In the 30s we had natural resources in abundance. All available for exploitation at minimal cost. In the future we will be forced to compete on the open market for many of them with a suspect currency, at a time of severe financial distress.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 14:39
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Am following the Ballard thread with interest. Can definitely
vouch for Stevie - he knew about this way before it was
even a company - he developed the technology and was
the first to come up with the periodic table, as I recall.
It's a shame that other people usurp all his work. But that's
just the kind of guy he is, always way ahead of everyone and
generous with his knowledge. I would definitely recommend
E-mailing him, Mr. Tarnished. When I did, he offered me
a handsome sum to back up every tale he tells on this
site. You can believe I took advantage of his generous offer.
Stevie for Top Prophet and all-knowing master of time and space.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 14:29
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):
To All: Barrons http://www.barrons.com has two major articles on gold. The first one is titled Indiana Jones and it is about the geologist at Robert Stevens Company and how he kept the firm out of trouble with Bre-X and the 2nd article is titled Son of Vancouver and the Alberta Stock Exchange.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 14:10
FrenchMan Gold>(Gold):
Predictor-You wrote July will be a down month for Gold.So how far will the price go down : 340,330,...?If you're right it will be the last opportunity for buying gold!


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 13:52
bw us treasury bonds:>(us treasury bonds:):
This unsecured asset class comprises almost six trillion dollars. Said to be risk free because it is backed by the taxing power of the usa. This overlooks the reason banks require collateral from even good customers. Collateral is required in case the debtor can not pay. Can't think of the usa not being able to tax some more? Posit a depression ( one has occurred like clock work every other generation since this country was founded ) . Since our credit bubble far exceeds anything that occurred in the 1920's we can expect our bust to also exceed the bust of the 1930's. The 1930's saw 25% - 30% unemployment, we may see at least 40%. During the coming bust every counter cyclical gov program in existence will be demanding huge amounts of cash. At the same time tax receipts will fall by at least 60%. If there could be a deficit it would be perhaps over five billion dollars a day. Of course we will be in a new era, the word deficit will have no meaning. There will be no more deficits ( at least for another two generations ) because there will be no fools to borrow from. The books will be balanced daily for awhile. Outgo equal income. The very last thing the gov will need in this environment, is a six trillion dollar debt from a time so far in the past as to be almost not remembered ( computers can be made to forget the number six trillion, in a microsecond ) .


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 13:43
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Glenn: If 1000 gold traders told me that gold was going to $400 by noon Monday I might believe them. Their predictions for Dec 31 2005 are of no use to anyone. Once the search feature is operable again here it will be possible to get a history of the predictions from the more frequent and adamant posters here and settle my curiosity. Do the predictions anticipate the change in the price of gold, do they follow the price of gold or are they unrelated to the price of gold.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 13:43
GVC @ANOTHER BRE-X?>(@ANOTHER BRE-X?):
News Story: ( as written in Nevada newspaper )

Headline: EXPLORATION COMPANY REPORTS BIG GOLD FIND

VANCOUVER, British Columbia:

A Vancouver exploration company headed by a promoter banned in British Columbia says it had more gold in its Nevada property than Bre-X Minerals claimed to have in Indonesia.

American Technology Exploration Corp., whose corporate address is a Vancouver post office box, says it Moapa property northeast of Las Vegas contains 76 million ounces of gold.

The initial feasibility study conducted by Kilborn Engineering on Bre-X's Indonesian property determined there were 71 million ounces of gold on that property. That calculation was later renounced after it was determined that drill information provided by Bre-X management was bogus.

American Technology's stock, which trades on the Nasdaq bulletin board, peaked at $8.75 on March 9.


The above news article appeared in the business section of the Las Vegas Review Journal the morning of June 6, 1997. I can't believe an exploration company would issue a press release like this after the Bre-X hoax and expect anyone to believe it.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 13:24
George S. Cole Predictions>(Predictions):
Predictor: We do have some short-term timing differences, but we are on the same wavelenght in projecting a move above $400 in early 1998.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 12:56
Predictor @>(@):
If Mr. Bear doubts the Predictor, I will give him five mining shares ( gold and silver ) for him to short and give him sleepless nights.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 12:54
Predictor @>(@):
General Market:
Dow to 8000 by end of June. July ( down ) . August ( rebound ) . Sept through Mid-December ( down ) . Mid-December through mid-January ( up ) .
mid-January through Feb ( down ) . March ( rebound ) .

Gold:
Up slightly by the end of June ( $350-365 range ) ... Silver ( around $5 )

July down.

August through steady and slow increase in both metals.

December through March ... Strong for Metals.

Gold to $450 ( maybe a little higher 460-500 ) range.
Silver to $5.50 ( maybe a little higher 5.50 to 7.00 ) range.



Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 12:43
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
Fundy - Yes the DOW could go to 10,000 and YES Gold is still in a bear market. But the tide WILL change. It may not be this year but it will be this decade and when it does Gold will go up! How high Well if we were to ask 1000 Gold traders what's the highest level Gold will reach between now and Dec 31st 2005 my guess is we are going higher than the highest guess! I do agree that one should not be foolish into a buy and hold. Don't worry about missing the boat. When the boat starts to leave there will be plenty of time to jump on.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 12:09
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
REB: As always its a bet. But I believe the idea is to go with the trend and this is some trend. I remeber the DOW going through 1000 and a crash was immenent. We have 8000 now for the crash sight. Why not 9000 or 10 000 or 15 000? It has been enlightening to see some of the more frequent and apparently erudite posters here see every setback as a further sign that gold is about to rise. We have one gentlemen here and elsewhere who has been predicting a rise for over a year undeterred by the decline. Its all a bet. But the slogans should be examined.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 11:54
REB MJ.land>(MJ.land):
Fundy: Here is a graph for you to look at.
http://www.futuresmag.com/library/august96/compchrt.html
Consider the period 1961 to 1981. And consider the period 1981 to now. And consider the period now to ......
Yes, gold has been a dog the last 17 years. And financial assets were considered dead in 1981. The question is what happens the next twenty years. Continuation of rise for financial assets? That's not where my money is.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 11:46
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
Jack 02:13 Good try! At least you are thinking and not relying on the convictions of others for your investment decisions.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 11:45
nailz THANKS>(THANKS):
MIKE SHELLER....Thanks for your info on astrology for silver....And you do not have to worry about me hanging in there.....I am here for the duration....Just looking to add papers and margins....


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 11:39
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Jack: Re your point #6. Daily costs are up over the last 20 years as you suggest. Is gold up by the same amount? Consider compound interest on the cash tied up in gold over the same time. Take a look at the gold price over the last 15-20 years or the last 15-20 months. Its going Down Jack Down not up. Blame it on the CB's Greenspan anyone you like. The price of gold has been going down for almost 2 decades. Not a comment to be taken lightly around here and a contrarian indicator to the hope springs eternal bunch. Looked at in another way. How long do you think you are going to live. Will gold reverse its trend of the last 2 decades before you go to your reward?


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 11:36
panda @>(@):
Mike Sheller -- Yup.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 10:55
Mike Sheller @the Charts>(@the Charts):
The 30 Year T-Bond has held support at 108 and is about to challenge the important 113/114 level. If it can break 114 at this angle of acceleration, it will be out of a significant Rhino pattern downtrend. We could look for a continued rally for at least a month or two.
This could put stockmarket participants into a final frenzy. If the precious advance with bonds and stocks, this would fulfill an important timing requirement for the paper bull. After all 3 asset classes rise together, bonds top out first. As bonds decline stocks top out, with gold rising. Then stocks go down and gold moves into its peak. The only other time in this whole bull that that happened was in '93, when all were moving up. Then came '94 when bonds tanked, followed by a stock correction of the general market that was masked by the relatively shallow decline of the major averages. Then gold stagnated, and finally aborted in '96. Could be one more chance at this asset turnover coming up. If the T-Bond can't get past 114, then a reversal from there means paper has finally had it. Watch the DJ Utility Average. If it accompanies bonds up, then there's a blowoff coming.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 10:50
Notnick @Bermuda>(@Bermuda):

I am wondering if the Platinum move is only because of the supply problem or is it really one of the 'up' indicators that we have been looking for?


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 10:48
Tortfeasor Woops>(Woops):
I just read my last post. Is there an English teacher in the house? I need big help in the grammar department.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 10:47
Tortfeasor joke of the morn>(joke of the morn):
How about them there Jazz. They just have to do it three more times. Any thoughts on the direction of platinum on Monday? I'm hoping it takes a dip at first so I can sale my short term puts and get my money back. I decided it might retract follwoing the big run last week but then my broker screwed me on the price for the puts. Nevermind my grousing without further adieu here is the joke.

A very spiritual, devout and holy priest dies and is immediately swept
up to heaven.

St. Peter greets him at the Pearly Gates, and says, Hello, Father,
we've been waiting for you for a long time. Welcome to Heaven! You
are very well known here, and as a special reward, because you are
such a spiritual and holy man, we're going to grant you anything
you wish even before we enter Heaven. What can I grant you?

Well, the priest says, I've always been a great admirer of the
Virgin Mother. I've always wanted to talk to her.

St. Peter nods his head to one side, and lo and behold who should
approach the priest but the Virgin Mary!

The priest is beside himself, and he manages to say, Mother, I
have always been a great admirer of yours, and have studied
everything I could about you and followed your life as best I
could. I have studied every painting and portrait ever made of
you, and I've noticed that you are always protrayed with a
slightly sad look on your face. I have always, always wondered
what it was that made you sad. Would you please tell me?

Well, says Mother Mary, honestly, I was really hoping for a girl.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 10:19
wondering w@w>(w@w):
Hello Bart:


It will be interesting to see how segregated customers segregated funds are if there are defaults.

R.

Wondering


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 10:05
panda @>(@):
BBL


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 10:04
panda @Platinum.palladium>(@Platinum.palladium):
Speed -- For once I can believe the volume numbers! The Nasdaq method of counting shares traded also counts dealer to dealer transactions. Ergo, a few 'individuals' can make a stock look much 'busier' than it really is.

In the FWIW column, todays Investors Business Daily ranked SWC a 'B' on their Accum/Dist scale. 'A' meaning strong accumulation and 'E' being strong distribution. It also ranked well into the most actives in volume. One of the things that I watch in a stock during the day is the number and size of trades. SWC had a lot X,000 share buys and the sells seemed to be of 100 to 200 share size. Translation, funds are buying. Warning? They ( funds ) can dump as fast as they buy.

Even the Nightly Business Report had the stock on their most actives on the AMEX. It was funny watching Paul Kanga? trying to explain the movement. Something like, Platinum and palladium have been moving up, and Stillwater is in the business of mining it. Duh! :- ) :- ) :- )


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 09:53
REB MJ.land>(MJ.land):
I love reading bearish arguments on gold at this point. The shorts need to keep this up to extend the game of musical chairs to which BT has alluded.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 09:45
REB MJ.land>(MJ.land):
Ted: Yes, I thought Karl Malone looked more at ease last night.

The Bulls need to remove the glue from the bottoms of their shoes.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 09:42
Lan Man Agreed!>(Agreed!):
Steve Puetz: Agree with your analysis of the metals market. Anticipating your new book - by the way - any estimated ship date?


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 08:57
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
tarnished - although I may have been a little stiff in my reprimand it was meant as example for all that we should be a little more certain of our statements when we attempt to postulate on the knowledge that another participant may or may not have. Apparently you are loath to make a public apology. Although you say that you are in your dingy, you still do not get my drift. Please e-mail me and I'll explain more fully to your satisfaction.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 08:04
TED @speed>(@speed):
Was just goin to post about Commodities corner in Barrons but you beat me to it!..Mornin Novice and Liz: I'm off fer my weekly fix of the Grope+Flail...beautiful day on the ocean!!!!


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 08:02
Mike Sheller @Nailz Biting Time>(@Nailz Biting Time):
NAILZ: Sorry I missed your earlier post. Re your 20:58 asking astro update on silver - all I can say is steady as she goes. I'm working with the Saturn conjunction with NYSE Moon. Saturn is now 17.51 Aries, and NYSE Moon is waiting at 19.33 Aries. Saturn is within a powerfuil orb of effect right now, but it makes the right-on hit on Tuesday/Wednesday July 1st & 2nd. Actually, it should have kicked in by now, but you know silver - it can suddenly climb the wall like a shocked cat. Perhaps what we're seeing in the other whites is a portent of what's to come. The trading crowd may suddenly catch on that there's something wrong with the metals picture, and jump on the stuff what hasn't moved yet.
Sometimes the astro effects lag a bit as the metaphysical works its way out here into the physical. Taking initial positions in silver futures or options may be warranted right here, with expanding positions if the market starts working higher. I noticed puts on silver options running ahead of calls the other day. This is another minor bullish sign. Still figure July to be hot for silver. Hang in.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 08:01
Charlse H. hmg@cchono.com>(hmg@cchono.com):
George S. Cole:

Recently, you posted a report by the LGN group discussing the white metals. Do you know if they are still sending out nesletters? Do you know anyway of contacting them? They have not responded to any of my e-mails regarding my life-time subscription to their e-mail service.

Thanks in advance.

Charlse H.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 08:00
Speed @home>(@home):
Barron's has article on Platinum in Commodities Corner. The prediction is that it will go over 500 leading a metals bull market.
European money moved into U.S. bonds yesterday, causing drop in interest rates and surge in stocks. Historically, this is an indicator of the last stages of a bull market. The Europeans buy at the top and sell at the bottom. Check out Market Watch. This section in Barron's is for newsletter authors and has been bearish for most of this year. Today it's full of dow 14000 sentiment. Has the last bear capitulated? These things are all bullish for the metals imho.

Panda: How about that Stillwater?! : )


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 07:55
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Bernatz de Ventadorm ( 1:33 ) I prefer GUNS!...REB: The Mailman delivered last night!


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 07:48
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Mooney ( 00:46 ) Yer right ...fer a change!...I did miss that bit about about the bull+chocolate....and here I thought I was perfect...hahahaha


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 07:20
George S. Cole stocks and gold>(stocks and gold):
Steve Puetz: Your argument that the stock market holds the key to the next gold bull is right on the money. Too many are focusing on the currencies in my opinion Currency movements have indeed been the key factor moving gold prices under the current investment paradigm, but we are about to enter a new paradigm wherein the yellow stuff will soar against all currencies as fear of a collapse replace ongoing financial euphoria.

I donít think it will require a stock market crash to get gold moving in a big way. A drop of 15% ( either slow or fast ) not quickly followed by a rebound to new highs will suffice quite nicely. Once the smart money concludes that the huge financial asset bull is ending, all the CB manipulations in the world will not be able to keep the yellow stuff from soaring.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 07:10
Duncan To: Reify @ 21:00>(To: Reify @ 21:00):
Your 21:00 post cheered me up no end; but Mr. Bear's post ( 12:59 ) does
wory me! I guess patience is the name of the game.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 06:10
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust):
STEVE PUETZ: Good to see you on the thread. Do you still think the gold stocks will go down with the rest of the market when the crash comes? And then start to rise. After how long?


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 05:59
Glenn au_usa@hotmail.com>(au_usa@hotmail.com):
This is interesting how NYMEX is increasesing margins. I can understand why. How will this affect price? The bulls are so deep In-The-Money that they may not be affected as much as a short who has lost alot and now needs even more margin. The Long Term Gold bears SHOULD learn from this,... but they won't until it is too late.


New York-June 6-FWN--THE NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
( NYMEX ) will increase the margins on its platinum and
palladium futures contracts as of the close of business
Monday, June 9, the exchange announced today.
The margins for platinum will be increased to $2,000
from $900 for clearing members; to $2,200 from $990 for
members; and to $2,700 from $1,215 for customers.
For inter-month spreads involving platinum's spot
month, the margins will be increased to $500 from $250 for
clearing members; to $550 from $275 for members; and to $675
from $338 for customers.
For inter-month spreads involving all other platinum
months, the margins will be increased to $300 from $150 for
clearing members; to $330 from $165 for members; and to $405
from $203 for customers, according to NYMEX.
The margins for palladium will be increased to $2,000
from $1,000 for clearing members; to $2,200 from $1,100 for
members; and to $2,700 from $1,350 for customers.
For inter-month spreads involving palladium's spot
month, the margins will be increased to $500 from $250 for
clearing members; to $550 from $275 for members; and to $675
from $338 for customers.
For inter-month spreads involving all other palladium
months, the margins for palladium will be increased to $300
from $150 for clearing members; to $330 from $165 for
members; and to $405 from $203 for customers, according to
the exchange.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 03:18
The Last Goldbug Formerly Goldbug 234513>(Formerly Goldbug 234513):

RJ ( 22:52 ) : Meant no harm. I apologize. Thank you for
helping me select my new handle.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 02:38
tarnished Iz varnished>(Iz varnished):
Bernatz: I'd love a sword! Is it an antique?


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 02:34
tarnished @dinghy and drifting>(@dinghy and drifting):
M-B: I'm sorry, it was GM not Ford, who was in leage with Ballard.
The program Venture, on the comunist broadcasting corp ( cbc ) did a major expose on Ballard listing the many companies they're dealing with at present. These sites may be of help, I can't recall all of them, right now....too tired.
http://www.ttcorp.com/nha/thl/oct_95a.htm
http://www.theautochannel.com/news/date/19960927/news02042.html
Mooney, I save apologies for my mates, sorry but I'm not attracted to you.
night all....you too TED!
TTFN


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 02:13
Jack Answers for Mr. Bear>(Answers for Mr. Bear):

Mr. Bear: I am sure that the answers that follow will
never compare with those of the regulars. But anyway:

1. Unlimited supply because the stockpile will never
deplete.
Ans. Not many will melt their jewels at the low price
that we have right now, nor will others sell their pure
bullion at these prices.

2. CB's Supplies.
Ans. The big argument in Germany is more than just a
common currency question. Say different cultures - and
how they think and interact with each other.

3. No currency based on gold.
Ans. Governments have and will fail again, many are
totering as you ( may be ) reading this.

4. Major retail buyers uneducated and poor ( asia, middle
east ) .
Ans. Common sense plays a major role in decisions,
especially when applied to government actions. Most
people will defend their country, but dislike their
government.

5. Cannot rally with PMG's.
Ans. Really cannot argue, but there are many gold and
silver shorts out there.

6. Governments want low price=low inflation.
Ans. The share markets are well inflated. Government
figures are not accurate. My living costs are much
higher year over year. If I go back 20 years, I Say WOW.

7. Bre-x and friends.
Ans. They will become the goldbugs folk heros.

8.Arizona to produce gold from sand.
Ans. Considered that Bre-x was finding gold at a rate of
1 to 3 ounces per second, this, according to whose
numbers were being used.

9.No news moves gold prices.
Ans. Stock market mania has everyone invested and mania's
do end. They can fool most of the people some of the
time.
10. Negative Perceptions
Ans. A Contrian Buy signal.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 02:02
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
what happened to platinum today is a forewarning of the market situation
for gold -- heavy forward selling, massive gold loans, and physical demand far exceeding physical supply. All precious metals will soar.
The real trigger will be a stock market creash.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 01:33
Bernatz de Ventadorm le_fou@supplies swords>(le_fou@supplies swords):
for Mes amis Mooney Ted and Tarnished.
Ah zink you ALL owe each ozair an apologie. If not,
Ah zink you should settle ziz mattair wiz zee FRENCH
SWORD by dam. If you require, Ah can supply zem by
air mail ( for a small fee, naturellement ) .


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 01:21
Bernatz de Ventadorm Le fou@needs a lawyer>(Le fou@needs a lawyer):
For Monsieur Earl
Zank you so much for your zo kindly support in my
time of difficultie. By zee way, ah may need a lawyer
if ah cannot stay a leetle ahead of zee peuple fron zat
last small village. Do you zink zat monsiour W. Wackair
of zee varmint region might be of assistance. Also he
iz zo funny by gar, and he talk so much, he would lift
mah spirits


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 01:07
Auric @$600 in 2000>(@$600 in 2000):

Ron @ 00:12-That is an interesting thought. Indeed,
perhaps that explains a lot of recent strengh in US
dollar. I don't think the EMU will fly either. Is
it possible that a failed, or weak EMU could make a
strong dollar but not affect gold that much ( in US
dollar terms ) ? My thoughts: US has same problems
as Europe and Japan, but not as severe. We have not
addressed our fiscal affairs either. I expect a
general debasement in currencies, with the Dollar
being hurt less than the Yen or EMU ( or whatever ) .
In other words, gold goes higher in Dollar terms,
but much higher in other currency terms. Would
welcome any thoughts.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 01:03
Bart Kitner bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com):
TO WONDERING: It would be interesting to do some research and find out if there have been defaults in the PGMs in the past and if so what happened in the aftermath. Perhaps one of our regular contributors or lurkers already know?

How it would affect the gold and silver? Probably the same way they would be affected if some shorts were to default for reasons other than short supply. There would be some name-calling, finger-pointing, and their broker would be registering for a new career in web page design. But I wouldn't expect to see much movement in the price as a direct result.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 00:46
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Ted - Read tarnished's post to me. He owes me an apology - believe it!
Also I predicted Detroit in six in the semis and seven in the finals so I MIGHT be wrong on the number of games it takes but it sure looks like I had the team right! :- ) . Also I gues you missed this one this past A.M. - Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 10:40
Mooney ( moonstep@idirect.com ) :
Ted - I KNOW your hurt AND that you're joking with me. I would
have been happy to see N.Y. win also, but it just wasn't in the cards
this year. BTW - I freely admit that I know squat about the
difference between the Bull and the chocolate!


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 00:34
TED @mooney>(@mooney):
Mooney ( 23:59 ) I think you owe Mr.Tarnished an apology as I distinctly remember the Ballard conversation....Do you still say Wings in six or are you waffeling on that too...I am STILL waiting fer yer presiction on the Calder cup finals between the Hamilton Bull Dogs and the Hershey Bears...
....They are playin in yer back yard fer Christ sakes...answer me!......
tweedle dum...tweedle dee....Some hockey fan you are....


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 00:16
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore):
Any substantial increase in the quanity of money/purchasing
media will lead to an increase in commodity prices. That is
the cause of inflation. Not increased wages, particularly
if the earner produces more. Goods and services will not
appear as if my magic to meet the quanity of money printed.
Check out Ludwig von Mises, The Theory of Money and Credits.
Nicht war?

Sooner or later Gold will rise again. Gravity has not been
repealed, yet.


Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 00:12
Ron Worries>(Worries):
One take on recent developments is that France's slide into socialism, together with other forces that are working to soften Maastricht requirements for the EMU, can only further weaken an already weak European economy. After all, who will invest in France now, given the road they've just chosen for themselves? Not I. And who will invest in greater Europe if the Euro has all the strength, and instills all the confidence, of the old Peso?

The two principle economies competing with the US for the world's investment dollars are Europe and Japan. While not yet basket cases, both are in sad shape at the moment, and there appears to be no end in sight to their problems. That leaves the US way out in front for the forseeable future and that's VERY bearish for gold near and mid-term.



Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 00:10
TED @mooney>(@mooney):
Mooney: Be COOL...hahaha...


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