KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 23:31
Apollo @ Delphi>(@ Delphi):
No Greek here, until tomorrow.

There is a time for death, and a time for re-birth.
These are such times.

Calm seas do not make good skippers.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 23:13
vronsky ALL YOU EVER WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT FORWARD SELLING>(ALL YOU EVER WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT FORWARD SELLING):
Shadow: Best treatise you will find anywhere about intricacies of FORWARD SELLING was written by Ted Butler - posted at GOLD-EAGLE website. You may read it all at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler414.html


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 23:04
Scotty scotty@codenet.net>(scotty@codenet.net):
WHEWW!!! Looks like we are all in big trouble.....if you believe this article about a massive European CB gold sell off......

http://www.btimes.co.za/96/1201/news/news11.htm



Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 22:23
panda @more salt in the wound.>(@more salt in the wound.):
Now for the really ugly chart. Of course, this depends on your point of view and whether you are long or short the yellow stuff.

But then again, if this were Compaq or Dell, the question would be, When do I buy the dip? :- ) )


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 22:18
panda @>(@):
Well, the Long Bond has broken to the downside on the ascending triangle. Whether this is a new trend or just an aberration, we will just have to wait and see. If this is a new trend, this could portend more short term trouble for gold. Then again, I am now more convinced than ever, I really don't know anything! :- ) )


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 22:00
Scotty back from the coin show>(back from the coin show):
I just got back from the first day of our local coin show here in Colorado Springs. I went during dealer setup to see which way the wind was blowing. I'm going back tomorrow to see what the public demand looks like.

Gold bullion.......only a couple dealers ready to deal at these levels. The biggest dealer was selling 1oz Eagles at spot plus $20. That's a fair spread -- but he wouldn't tell me how he can make money at these low levels ( in other words, he wouldn't tell me his gold source. The best I can guess is he is buying off the street in his shop at spot or below spot. )

The bulk of the dealers are selling rare coins, type coins and the such and therefore are not bothered by silver and gold prices. Interesting, I did not see anyone seriously offering silver bullion; though I did see a smattering of 1oz Eagles at higher than usual prices.

I saw some rare gold at give-away prices. And I just dumped a bunch of moola in my gold mutual fund. Rats! Rare gold will never be this low again. If anyone needs anything, let me know! scotty@codenet.net

I'm going back tomorrow to finish up and maybe make a few bucks. I'll report back when it's all over. But for now, the wild gold market looks like a non issue to this particular group of numistatists.



Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 21:55
Reporter UK>(UK):
Can anyone explain why the significance of the following article is favorable to gold in the second half of this year, as contended:


UK gold marking increases 7.8 percent at end June

LONDON, July 11 ( Reuter ) - The number of gold articles hallmarked in the UK during the quarter ended June 30 increased by 7.8 percent compared with the same period last year, according to the Assay Offices of Great Britain.

The total number of gold articles marked was 4,269,403.
An Assay Office spokesman said, ``The figures support the cautious optimism coming from the trade regarding prospects for the second half of this year.''

He added, ``The 14 carat standard although down for the quarter was 12.5 percent up for the
half year.''

Nine carat items dominated with over 3.7 million of which nearly 1.8 million items were manufactured outside the UK, a 13 percent rise on the 1996 quarter.

The weight of gold marked increased by 16.5 percent to nearly 19.5 million grams.




Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 21:36
shadow carson @ vivanet.com>(carson @ vivanet.com):

Mr. Ted Butler;
George Cole has passed the baton to you. Could you please answer my questions on forward gold buying on : July 11 18:07 Thank you.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 21:05
Scotty crazy Russians>(crazy Russians):
Steve-Perth.....couldn't find the info on the Russian Bank marketing gold. I did find why it's a crazy idea: it seems the Rooskies are buying beef from the Brits....

http://www.russiatoday.com/rtoday/news/06.html



Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 21:05
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Apollo@Delphi: Thak sounds like Greek to me.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 21:03
John N. Retiarivs>(Retiarivs):
The Times of London says of The Little Old Lady of Threadneedle Street:

Mortgage costs rise as Bank lifts
rates

BY ALASDAIR MURRAY AND NATHAN YATES

MILLIONS of homeowners face another rise in mortgage
costs after the Bank of England increased interest rates for
the third consecutive month yesterday.

Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, who gave control of rates to
the Bank soon after the election, defended its action as
necessary for an economy in danger of becoming seriously
out of balance because of the mistakes of the Tory
Government. He accused the previous administration of
failing to tackle the threat of inflation.
...

From: http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/Times/frontpage.html?1124027


Let's move the Kitco 450 Gathering to Vancouver to avoid cold weather objections et la question de langue pour les Americans. D'accord, M. Bart?


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 21:02
Apollo @ Delphi>(@ Delphi):
Could this current
time
be the beginning
of the end
of this time


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 20:52
George Cole forward selling>(forward selling):
Shadow : Others on this site such as Ted Butler know much more about the intracies of forward selling than I do.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 20:51
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net):
POLARBEAR: I like the analogy! But as you know, stalls are easy ( and fun ) if you know how to handle them! Problem is the pilot, co-pilot, navigator, and loadmaster for this aeroplane ( world economy ) full of passengers may have not practiced for a long time. My fear, however, is that they know exactly what they're doing and plan to bail out at the appropriate time, leaving the passengers to crash and burn. A massive crash and its aftermath would give world leaders the reason to create their new world order. The scenario could be ugly in a number of ways ( as frequently hypothesized here at KITCO. )

MY HOPE is to gain enough knowlege here to fabricate myself a financial parachute.

And for everyone else at this site to do the same...

Knowlege is power...


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 20:44
OLD GOLD World Gold Council>(World Gold Council):


   Gold Economics & Demand Trends    [Gold Flash Archive] 
Gold News Flash 9 July 1997

Australian Gold Sales - Update

 

The following 6 points are being made by the Council to the
media in response to the recently announced sale of gold by the
Reserve Bank of Australia, a decision that has triggered heated
debate in Australia itself.

1.The Reserve Bank of Australia said it wanted to avoid disturbing the
market, but in fact the announcement has greatly disturbed the market
as shown in the sharp drop in the gold price. The central bank did not
expect this because they thought they could present this decision as
being in line with similar decisions by other central banks ( The
Netherlands, Belgium, Canada etc. ) as well as proposed Swiss and
German moves, whereas in fact the Australian decision is quite
different. Australia is the first central bank to acknowledge that they
are selling gold primarily for rate of return reasons. That is why it
has been taken so badly by the market.
2.The Australian decision has been motivated by narrow financial
considerations, whereas in fact it will have wider economic and
political implications. These wider implications were not taken into
account in the cost benefit analysis which they carried out before
taking the decision to sell. For the sake of increasing the return on
their international reserves by a few percentage points, the Australian
authorities are endangering key sectors of the Australian economy.
3.The reserve bank is taking an essentially short-term view of the
outlook for gold, whereas central banks are supposed to take the
long-term view and to safeguard the currency and the nation against
long-term dangers. They are supposed to look after the interests of
future generations. However, this decision does fit in with the current
management style of the Australian Central Bank which is perceived
by other central banks as adopting a risky and aggressive trading style
in the management of its currency reserves.
4.This action will increase the vulnerability of Australia to external
financial and political pressure. This is because assets which are
denominated in foreign currencies are subject to threats of being
frozen or blocked by the issuing country whereas gold reserves, if
appropriately located, are not vulnerable to such actions.
5.The Australians themselves accept the key arguments for gold: i ) that
it is a way of diversifying foreign reserves; ii ) that is relatively
immune from external political pressures . Their argument is that
because Australia has large reserves in the ground they do not need to
hold significant reserves above ground. This argument is erroneous
for a large number of reasons - the gold is hard to get at, it is owned
by private sector companies, and would doubtless command a very
high price if the Australian government wanted to mobilise it quickly.
6.To put this all in perspective, some central banks have continued to
acquire gold. GFMS statistics show that 19 countries were net buyers
of gold in 1996 compared with 16 countries that were net sellers and
also that the amount sold by Australia of 167 tonnes is very small
indeed when set against total world demand or supply. New mine
supply in 1996 was 2346 tonnes, fabrication demand was 3290 tonnes,
mainly jewellery ( 85% ) .

 

Contact: R. Pringle, Head, Centre for Public Policy , World Gold Council,
Kings House, 10 Haymarket, London SW1Y 4BP, U.K. Tel. +44.171.930
5171, Fax. +44.171.839.4314, or by e-mail: info@gold.org.

 .
  [Gold Flash Archive]


The World Gold Council is a non-profit association of gold producers world-wide, with
headquarters in Geneva and offices in major markets around the world. The countries
monitored by the Council account for approximately 80% of global gold demand.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 20:42
shadow carson @ vivanet.com >(carson @ vivanet.com ):

George Cole,
Would you please respond to my july 11, 18:07.... I dont think anyone else can. Thank you.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 20:30
shadow carson @vivanet.com>(carson @vivanet.com):

George Cole; Would you please address my question stated here on july 11 1807. I dont think anyone else knows the answer.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 19:57
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
To buying Gold calls at $10 apiece. You can forget it. Today a small retail order came in to buy 4 Oct 370 calls for $30 each. They closed at $30 yesterday. Gold was down $0.50 at the time. The options traders just stood there 20 bid AT 40 with NO intent of being flexable. If you want an option that close at $10 you will pay $20. Well today I figures it was one of you guy's buying. I mean it was only 4 contract so I sold it to him. I figured what the heck. If Gold goes up $50 in 2 months I'll be long so much Gold, so I just buy 4 more contracts to hedge them. But in the future don't expect this type of fill. I'm not in the option pit to often and the other options traders are real inflexible about there bids and asking prices.

Gold did go up today but it was on very lite volume. Not much buying at all. I'm not sure yet what to make of it. I'm thinking of shorting the NYFE this coming week. DOW 8000 seems a like to tough for right now.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 19:54
MoreGold @Meltdown>(@Meltdown):
WW: Agree with you 100%. What stupid misinformation! What are we going to do, melt down all the wedding rings, chains, ancient coins, egyptian artifacts, crown jewels, teeth, watches etc. and then say there is a major oversupply of Gold. HAHAHA. We must be at the cyclical bottom when this kind of nonsense gets aired by our trusted media.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 19:41
panda @>(@):
Interesting story, so interesting, that it was quoted twice! :- ) )
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/11/y0023_z00_39.html


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 19:26
WW @New England>(@New England):
SHADOW: Forward selling is selling gold you dont presently have. CNBC is paid through advertising by the financial mkt peddlers so they will always knock gold. The statement that there is 4 billion ounces of gold in the world and growing at 83 milion per year is disingenuous on its face. 70 % of the existing supply and almost all new supply is used for jewelry and industry and is not at all convertible into tradeable gold at except maybe 700 or more per ounce. Thus, the tradeable and investable gold supply is shrinking especially when compared with paper expansion. As Wall St is the major paper underwritter they would, of course, encourage the false perception that the tradeable gold supply is expanding. Hard to believe a responsible network would create patent disinformation like the gold surplus story/ also Jimmy!! Patent misrepresentation of facts on CNBC/ Are they getting a little nervous?!?!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 19:26
Larryn Reply to Fundy>(Reply to Fundy):
As FUNDY says ( 13:15 ) , I feel certain that most Kitcoists don't really think that we will be using gold ( coins, bullion, wafers, dust? ) as currency anytime soon unless the economy has a total collapse ( almost impossible ) . Anyone who wants this must be out of his mind. He may have gold in his hand but he won't stay rich unless he has a weapon.

Deterioration in the value of the dollar is measured by other currencies and by commodity prices ( anything which can command a price in a free market such as gold/silver ) . If the U.S. economy starts to destruct due to market bubble, inflation, deflation, war, pestilence, drought, terrorism ... anything... the Feds will quickly issue more credit or paper to be used as currency. As a result, the dollar will reach a lower point of value, meaning that gold will have a higher price. The dollar can slowly lose value and gold can go sky high without the economy collapsing. Since 1945 we have already lost about 90% in the dollar value. We could do it again and still have a workable society. Meanwhile gold goes up. Gold is down now only because most investors ( even CB's ) want interest paying US debt instead. I don't think this will last much longer.



Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 19:20
George Cole New Theme>(New Theme):
These guys used to be wildly bullish. But they do have a good point. The gold mining industry will consolidate massively over the next 12 months. This will be all to the good. There are far too many companies mining gold today.

Today's action pretty good for a Friday. Is the bottom in in? Too soon to tell. We will have to see if recent lows hold on the next reaction.

LGN MARKET LETTER -SPECIAL EDITION -July 11th, 1997
Date:

THE LGN MARKET LETTER

SPECIAL EDITION
July 11th, 1997 - Vol. 163-97

WHAT IS GOING ON WITH GOLD & MINING COMPANIES?
&
HOW CAN I MAKE MONEY AS AN INVESTOR?

Lower gold prices have put mining-company investors literally in a hole over
the past few months.

But we believe that those few investors who can handle and deal with the
possibility of even lower gold prices in the months to come may actually
reap very strong benefits down the road, as the industry consolidates.
Though difficult and costly for various gold-mining companies, this
consolidation is expected to give sinking precious-metals stocks a much
needed boost.

This week, prices for gold ( and thus gold-mining companies ) went into a
severe 2-day drop after Australia's central bank announced it had sold
two-thirds of its gold reserve. Gold futures for August delivery lost $13
during Thursday and Monday trading but recovered Wednesday, gaining $2 at
the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange to $321 an ounce.

Shares of Barrick Gold ( the largest North American gold producer ) tumbled
7.4% over the 2 trading days; Royal Oak Mines ( a high-cost producer ) fell
16%; Newmont Mining lost 8.4%; and Homestake Mining fell 5.2%.

Though showing sporadic signs of recovery, most gold stocks still have
fallen sharply since the beginning of the year. On Wednesday, for example,
the gold-share index on the Phildelphia Stock Exchange rebounded 3.1%, after
having lost more than 8% two days earlier.

Just last week, AMG Data Services ( a fund-tracking company ) showed that
investors in gold and natural-resource mutual funds pulled their money out
of those funds over a 3-week period ending July 2nd -- one day before the
Australian central-bank announcement. In fact, as a percentage of assets,
gold-fund investors took out more capital ( 3% of total assets ) than any
other mutual-fund sector during the last three weeks of June.

As our readers know by now, one of the major factors contributing to the 13%
year-to-date fall in gold-bullion prices has been a sequence of decisions by
numerous central banks to sell part of their gold reserves.

We feel that further central-bank selling could put a very heavy burden on
various mining companies' earnings and balance sheets. In fact, this alone
will most likely speed consolidation talks. For the next 6 to 12 months, we
anticipate tremendous opportunities for companies to strengthen themselves,
while we will also see many losers. More technologically advanced mining
companies will be looking to acquire smaller and less profitable ones.

Given current gold prices, higher-cost producers find it increasingly
difficult to show profits. At this rate, we could see hundreds of companies
literally disappearing through acquisitions ( or shutdowns ) . South Africa and
Australia ( with deeper mines ) are particularly endangered because of the
high costs involved in extracting gold from the ground.

We expect Homestake, for example, to carry on its purchases of smaller
junior mining companies - notably after the breakup of its friendly
agreement to acquire Santa Fe Pacific Gold earlier this year.

Meanwhile, a few gold companies have hedged part of their exposure to
falling commodity prices through forward sales. For those who are not
familiar with this strategy, forward-selling contracts are entered into to
lock in a price for future gold sales. Barrick, for instance, has committed
to forward contracts whereby it will sell its gold through the year 2000 at
a price of $420 an ounce. As a general rule of thumb, we feel companies that
have hedged will probably be less affected by falling bullion prices.

Overall, the combination of limited inflation and booming stock markets have
kept most gold stocks out of favor. This obviously leads to 2 questions:

( * ) Is it time to buy yet? ( to take advantage of bottom fishing opportunities )
&
( * ) What should I buy?

As you may know, at LGN Capital, we focus on growth and high-growth stocks,
and have an in-depth knowledge of precious metals and mining companies. Over
time, we have offered our readers and clients many opportunities to invest
in this industry and reap solid profits.

The key to making money here is:

( * ) Identify companies where the downside risk is minimized -- notably given
the high cost structure in the industry
( * ) Look for strong acquisition opportunities and candidates
( * ) Find companies stressing cost-cutting and low-cost production

. .


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 19:19
Donald @Home>(@Home):
BobM: I bought Bema Gold today for US$5.375 at the open. It has a book value of $5.50. Snowplows got through today and the Refugio Mine is open.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 19:18
MoreGold @Y2K Etc.>(@Y2K Etc.):
Miro, I hope your portfolio grows too.
I've been experiencing PORTFOLIO PARALYSIS for the last year or so.
There seems to be a lot of interest here in Year2000.
The following site has it all: http://www.year2000.com


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 19:17
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):
RT: Regards XAU bottom of the ninth. Within this ninth we are in #8 up currently and will have a final ninth down. Can not say the nature of the final ninth down, that is if it will just go below the prior low of this current ninth wave down or will do a last Monday on us. London Gold is definitely in ninth down now ( confirmed ) but again I can not say where the bottom is. But time wise, we are at the end of this bear move from back in early 1996. But as always, need to give a week or two leadway.... The CB'ers are trying to bury gold back into the ground from whence it came. But the Phoenix will rise again.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 19:11
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
Donald-its ridiculous, isnt it? The Invesco Gold Fund is down to $3.60 a share. The value of the companies alone has to far exceed that..the way I see it, most of the bad news is out on gold, but the worst is yet to come. Shortly our government will annouce that they are selling out most of Ft. Knox and the market will spiral down for its last down leg, with spot gold settling at around $250 or maybe a little less. I believe that the mining stocks are very close to bottom right now as bargain hunters are going to begin to move in..


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 19:11
vronsky (Maybe 1/50 of an ounce times several billion Asians? ):>( (Maybe 1/50 of an ounce times several billion Asians? ):):
John@Home: Firstly, the question has a slight error ( in addition to my hasty math ) . The cheapest gold ring ( the thinest ) weighs considerably more than 1/50 of an ounce. Consider that 1/50 of a troy once at tonight's gold price is only $6.40 - that would be a gold ring we might find in a Cracker-Jack candied popcorn box ( if they still exist ) . I have never weighed a gold ring, but I cannot believe it would weigh less than 1/2 an ounce. So we will use this figure for our experiment.

Again assume one half of the total Chinese population ( 800,000,000 ) in the year 2012 buys a gold ring for the fairer half. Obviously, we are talking 400,000,000 oz of the noble metal, which is equivalent to 12,440 metric tonnes. And at current world gold production rates, it would take 5.4 years just to satisfy the Chinese demand.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 19:06
Donald @Home>(@Home):
BobM: I have a perfect solution. Mining Co. shareholders should present proposals to change company names. Just scratch out the word mining or gold and replace it with computer. Then our mining stocks will go up. After the crash we can still buy them cheap because then no one will want computer companies. It works!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 18:59
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
According to CNBC and Jimmy Rodgers this afternoon 4 billion ounces of gold in world right now with annual production at 83 million ounces per year..and the negatives keep on coming..pretty soon you will see car dealers and computer sales companies giving away gold with the purchase of their product.. Its coming gold will be treated one step above road gravel..then the bottom will be firmly in place...


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 18:58
Miro Oh God please let me enjoy it a little longer>(Oh God please let me enjoy it a little longer):
Oh what a feeling. I just looked at my portfolio and instead of shrinking
by $1000 per day it's went up by $1000. Please God let it continue, my
only sin is that I bought some gold mutuals ;- )


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 18:52
vronsky ERROR-ERROR-ERROR>(ERROR-ERROR-ERROR):
ooooOOOPS - multiplied by 50, instead of 1/50. Will be back shortly with CORRECTION!!!!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 18:44
vronsky Maybe 1/50 of an ounce times several billion Asians? >(Maybe 1/50 of an ounce times several billion Asians? ):
John@Home: That's a very intersting question. Here is the baisis for my calculations. China's population is 1.2 billion. If it experiences a low demographic annual growth of only 2%, China's teeming masses will be 1.6 billion strong within 15 years ( naturally, barring any devastating world wars ) . And let us assume that half the population buys a gold ring weighing 1/50 of a troy ounce for the other half in the year 2012. The amount of gold required will be 40 billion ounces, which is equivalent to 1,244,000 metric tonnes of the noble metal. Now if we assume the world's yearly production remains stable at approximately 2,300 metric tonnes, it would ONLY require 565 years of gold production ( that puts us in the year 2577 ) . Methinks we need not worry about the price of gold rising in the future. ( :- ) )


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 18:36
POLARBEAR OKINAWA, JAPAN>(OKINAWA, JAPAN):
Having lived in Japan for the past 5 years, I take a special interest in such keen comments on the situation here in Rising-sun-ville.

Oracle's latest is once again a must read:

JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD SPOT

Only Solution Is To Dump U.S. Treasuries and Buy GOLD!

PART - III

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle707.html

Make sure you take a look at the stunning chart of the S&P 500 Index in relationship to Foreign Bank Treasury Holdings. REMINDS ME OF PRACTICING STALLS DURING PILOT TRAINING. YOU PULL THE NOSE UP HIGHER AND HIGHER, CLIMBING AT AN UNSUSTAINABLE RATE. ALL SEEMS WELL DURING THE JOYOUS CLIMB, UNTIL ALL OF A SUDDEN, THINGS START TO SHAKE, AND THE NEXT THING YOU KNOW YOU'RE IN A FREE FALL!

From the article:

If we are to believe that Prime Minister Hashimoto is a politician not prone to cavalier remarks in public, and does not lean toward childish bluffs regarding the welfare of his country, then we are forced to be of the opinion HE WILL NOT RISK LOSING POLITICAL-FACE BY BACKING AWAY FROM HIS VEILED THREAT TO SELL T-BONDS AND BUY GOLD, if the U.S. shies away from defending the greenback, and fails to increase interest rates. Relevant is the FOMC's recent decision to stand pat on rates, even while the dollar continues to slip. Looks like the ball is in Hashimoto's court.



Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 18:30
Miro to Ark on banks>(to Ark on banks):
ark: you said You know, it used to be done by hand in rooms full of
clerks, fingers flying, pencils pushed, even the windows were open
Ark, not anymore. Humanoids in local branch won't help it. It's
electronic commerce, check clearing house, overnight loans, etc..
everything goes through the wire in bits and bytes. Did you noticed that
your check clears much faster that decade ago? There is no physical
movement - just information bits through the telecom line. That's what is
so scary. When infrastructure stops working everything is dead. Sci-fi
… computer rules … but it’s so dumb … and when it gives up a lot of
things can't go back to manual method


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 18:16
KGB @in hiding>(@in hiding):
COMRADE PALLADIUM CUSTOMERS: Ve gif update on truk vat tak senik rout via Albania. Driver tired. Has stop Albania Truk Stop for nap. Ve haf hired vell qualified Albanian Sekurity Kompany, Wills Forego, to guard. Not to vorry.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 18:07
shadow carson@vivanet.com>(carson@vivanet.com):

Would someone please help me to understand this gold forward selling? A lot of the big gold mines have forward sold their production gold for the next few years at $400_$500 an ounce. Is this a contract that they will recieve this amount as it is produced and turned over to the buyer; or did they recieve this money up front ?
The big question is ; WHO are the people with the egg on their face that bought the gold at these prices


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 17:59
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net):
Since I was too busy to find Tort's joke this morning, I thought I'd contribute one:

A woman starts dating a doctor. Before too long, she becomes
pregnant and they don't know what to do with the baby. About
nine months later, just about the time she is going to give birth,
a priest goes into the hospital for a prostate gland infection.

The doctor says to the woman, I know what we'll do. After
I've operated on the priest, I'll give the baby to him and
tell him it was a miracle.

Do you think it will work? she asks the doctor. It's worth
a try, he says. So the doctor delivers the baby and then
operates on the priest. After the operation he goes in to the
priest and says, Father, you're not going to believe this.

What? says the priest. What happened?

You gave birth to a child.

But that's impossible!

I just did the operation, insists the doctor. It's a miracle!
Here's your baby.

About fifteen years go by, and the priest realizes that he must
tell his son the truth. One day he sits the boy down and says,
Son, I have something to tell you. I'm not your father.

The son says, What do you mean, you're not my father? The
priest replies, I'm your mother. The archbishop is your father.




Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 17:57
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SCOTTY: Re. your 8:44 You are right to get out of debt and get in gold, in that order if possible. Is my scenario imminent? I think it could be. I know most don't feel that way but when, not if, the dollar goes it will be quick from there. It is like buying stocks here. Could it go higher? Yes. But it is just too risky. A hundred year high, 90% since 1987, is such an unprecedented financial event that the odds of being right at this hour are getting no better than the Lotto. The survivors will be here at the Kitco site. Even those of us who saw it coming and planned carefully for it will be hurt. But we will be less hurt.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 17:50
BillD XAU action this week>(XAU action this week):
Here's a good url to check out the XAU...not bad!!

http://www.tscn.com/wsc/timespan.html?TSym=XAU.X?106,15

Also...Bob A and Panda...did you check out the closing futures for PA and PL...up strong!!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 17:46
John @home>(@home):
Assumet China does become a major economic power in another 15-20 years. Once the standard of living for China's several billion people reaches the point where they have a little disposable income and they all decide to buy a gold ring or chain for their loved one, how much gold will it take? Maybe 1/50 of an ounce times several billion Asians?


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 17:00
ark salted@core.bre>(salted@core.bre):
ALL this chat re the year 2000 comp problems. Banks are
going to have to call in all the folks they let go and work
the comptometers. You know, it used to be done by hand in
rooms full of clerks, fingers flying, pencils pushed, even
the windows were open. The banks can either load up a bunch
of data sheets and ship them to the slave labor Chinese and
just do it by hand. Yes, it is possible. The world worked
before the PC


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 16:59
REB na>(na):
Someone else posted this URL for the XAU intraday earlier. Quite a run at the close.
http://fast.quote.com/fq/briefing/chart?symbols=INDEX:$XAU.X&time_period=1-minute%20Bars&bars=600&newstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key=


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 16:24
Donald @Home>(@Home):
George Cole is away for awhile. He has a laptop with him and said he will post from time to time.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 16:14
Curious @GSC>(@GSC):
What happened to George S. Cole. Is he on vacation or just decided not to post anymore anyone know?


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 15:51
Front MoreGOld & Selby:>(MoreGOld & Selby:):

Thanks guys

TTFN


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 15:31
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Front: Barrick--ABX 30.50 and Placer--PDG 20.90. Both up +/- 50 cents.
The 20th century is running out of time. Put or call?


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 15:29
MoreGold @TSE>(@TSE):
Front: BARRICK is ABX, PLACER is PDG, KINROSS is K.
They have backed off a bit. I also am not buying yet, I think we may still have a down wave or two left. Steady as she goes.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 15:25
News @4 U>(@4 U):
JERUSALEM ( Reuter ) - The only two Arab states at peace with Israel blamed Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday for a breakdown in peacemaking which has spawned waves violence in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 15:16
RT @wavin>(@wavin):
BYRON: how many waves down now?


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 14:59
Front MoreGold>(MoreGold):

#1 : What's the symbols on Toronto for Barrick and Placer?
#2 : Everything ( XAU, TSGL,etc ) seems to be backing off. I'm not sure either but I've decided not to take the chance today. I'll let this one pass, collect a bit of profit from yesterday and maybe add on Monday. It seems to be a toss-up for the shorts as you mentioned. I get the feeling it may be just short covering for the weak stomached but the real shorts need a greater stymulus to move their butts off the fence. Thanks for the info...

TTFN


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 14:51
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Miro, Zeke, Y2K: Relax. I have it on good authority that the CB'S and their henchmen are going to foil the thieves who created the 2000 AD problem by doing to time what they have just done to gold. 2000 will never arrive. Since it is only a concept and not a property 2000 will be debased to 1999a and then backward 1998a 1997a 1996a. You should never believe you can fool these guys.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 14:50
nailz QUESTIONS.......>(QUESTIONS.......):
AUSTRALIANS......2 questions for you. Have you ever heard of a goldmining company named Natural Resources or Southern Natural Resources It was a startup in the late 70s or early 80s..If so is it still miningHas it been bought out Is it belly up ...And question #2....A friend called last night who had heard some rumor about a lot of NATO troops in Australia and firearms being confiscated from OZ citizens....Is there any truth to that rumor


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 14:36
Zeke kentucky.com>(kentucky.com):
Miro,
I have learned that most financial types have no appreciation of the magnitude of the problem. I am like you, after realizing what we are facing within next 2-3 years, I decide that for me the only answer is gold and silver.and that I need to learn from the experts at Kitco Luckily I am 2 steps ahead of majority investors who will be paying $600 and up when everyone realizes what is about to hit the markets by year 2000 maybe even sooner. Talking recently to some higher ups at a company I contracted with, I learned that many are taking early retirement starting this Fall. Some already know what is happening and want to avoid lawsuits and want to be as far away as they can be. This is just the beginning. It WILL get much worse.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 14:32
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Can you believe these suckers? Sell them some lead bars painted yellow. Compaq up 5, Dell up 10! They are out of their heads!

COBOL: Regarding miscalculations on interest rates...this is not a new problem. I am only getting 2% on my passbook account. I was blaming Greenspan and I will apologize to him now that I know it was only a computer problem.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 14:28
MoreGold @Prices>(@Prices):
Front: BARRICK $C 30.60 +2.1%, 52 week low ( this week ) 26.25.....
PLACER 21.05 +3.5%, 52 week low ( this week ) 19.00
I hope its not just short covering on Gold.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 14:22
Fidelity Update @2pm edt>(@2pm edt):
FIDELITY UPDATE:
AS OF 2PM EDT:

FSAGX= $18.78 UP .20
FDPMX=$12.90 UP .22


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 14:17
Miro to Zeke, John, and Y2K>(to Zeke, John, and Y2K):
Zeke: I guess I am not the average shmuck when it comes to Y2K because
that's what I do for living ( at least for next few years ) I know how
bad it is and it's exactly the reason for me to be on this forum. To
learn as much as I can about gold because Y2K will drive it's price up.
All of you cyber and paper money worshipers beware - it ain't gona work.
I can't get you your money because computer is is telling me that your
last gain was realized 100 years ago and you lost it in 1929 crash ;- )


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 14:16
Front MoreGold>(MoreGold):
On Vancouver AMU -7% ; STS -21% ; the rest are between +28% and +1%.
Thanks for the other stuff on TSE. What's that 65 cents in percentage increase?

TTFN


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 14:10
MoreGold @TSE>(@TSE):
Front: Blue chip Barrick +.65 Placer Dome +.60 KINROSS + .35 TVX now flat. This is after good moves yesterday.
Many juniors also up ex: Freewest +18% Western Pacific +10%.
Does anyone have the VSE index, should also be rising.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 14:07
Bob A (?):
Anything new with Plat or Pall, especially Stillwater?


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 14:03
Front To Strad:>(To Strad:):

Strad:

I just heard on the news that they actually just found a Martian on Mars via the camera. Problem is he's dead. Seems the airbags exploded with such force ......

TTFN


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:35
EB Panda-it's not on the boat...it docked at Mir...and from their...>(Panda-it's not on the boat...it docked at Mir...and from their...):
to the MOON!

awaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyheeeeeheeeeee!!

EB


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:31
EB ezau-2 to 3 glasses per day...>(ezau-2 to 3 glasses per day...):
and I like question #2 with a slight revision. Waffleing to Tanking to Rising. IMHO, FWIW, DIMA?

away...

EB


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:26
EB M.S.-6:48 - Amen Brother! We are of the same philosophical soup.>(M.S.-6:48 - Amen Brother! We are of the same philosophical soup.):
You are a giant among men. Can I jump on Your shoulders?

aWaY

eB

i believe a person can be from Both schools...and...
are you knocking the libs?


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:25
vronsky THE INGER LETTER FORECAST - July 9, 1997 Report>(THE INGER LETTER FORECAST - July 9, 1997 Report):
“But a very overdue meaningful correction is on the agenda. After all, stock market here is “ONLY” priced at something like 2.5 times gross world product ( of all nations ) .” SEE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:22
Front To MoreGold>(To MoreGold):
MoreGold:

Not sure where you're looking but not ALL of the Toronto Gold stuff is rising. As of 13:20 Viceroy -5% ; Euro-Nevada -3% ; Orvana -1% ; Franco-nevada -.4% .... All on the TSE ...

Where do you show the rises?

Thanks
TTFN


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:17
panda @>(@):
OK, who forgot to put the PA/PL on the boat to Japan! Ca mon, FESS up! :- ) )


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:17
MoreGold @2 weeks>(@2 weeks):
I hope Gold soars over 360. now, for the sole reason of exposing those
idiot Australian politicians who looted the vault and screwed their own people...


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:15
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Mike Sheller: If anyone thinks that the current level of live on the planet can be maintained by a global economy limited by the amount of gold that has been refined they are setting themselves up for a long term lack of satisfaction. Ain't going to happen. The guys in the log cabins with the boxes of freeze dried food and the boxes of cartridges are today's equivalent of the hermits of the dark ages. The world will pass them by and the travelling preachers pickups will be turned into Chip wagons. Salt goes over the left shoulder.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:13
MoreGold @Y2000>(@Y2000):
ZEKE: I saw another estimate that total liabilities in Year2000 lawsuits could exceed $2 Trillion. At this point these are estimates but they may be right.
The lawyers must be salivating....


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:10
2weeks Wow!>(Wow!):
Gold headed for 360 with a breather back to 340 before zooming. The train is leaving the station! FDPMX has to be up at least 3%, maybe more. Have a great weekend all!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:10
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Method in Central Bank Schizophrenia
http://www.brw.com.au/fs_feat1.htm
Time for some wage rises I think!!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:09
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Correction : 322.40 NOW !


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:09
John jgg@msn.com>(jgg@msn.com):
Scary stuff:
http://www.techweb.com/se/directlink.cgi?CWK19970505S0040


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:08
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
August Gold : 322.0


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:06
Zeke kentucky.com>(kentucky.com):
When the average shmuck with his money in the stock market realizes the possible extent of y2k and its effect on the financial markets, the gold and silver will skyrocket. Already gold is changing from weak to strong hands. Smart money is buying gold. We all should be buying gold at these depressed prices.Do you think that Soros is quietly buying gold because he has nothing better to do?


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:05
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Lessons for Gold in the story of Silver
http://www.brw.com.au/fs_feat1.htm


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:04
MoreGold @rally>(@rally):
Canadian Golds and juniors all having good moves up.
Not sure yet if this is a dead cat bounce, but im sure that one of these days the low will be made, and those buying will be geniuses.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:04
Lan Man @Venezuela & KRY>(@Venezuela & KRY):
CVG president Ynaty's executive days are numbered...
http://www.vheadline.com.ve/vheadline/9707/2459.htm
Recently, AD itself has become somewhat disenchanted with the guy.
Fire him, fire him now!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 13:03
Mike Sheller catchup ketchup for lunch>(catchup ketchup for lunch):
FUNDY: It don't have to work that way. Just substitute worthless paper with worthwhile paper. All that is needed to avoid your grim scenario is to BACK paper with gold. Then you can leave the wheelbarrow in your back yard. Gold's portability, liquidity, and surety will not be to blame for any financial and industrial catastrophe brought on by currency and debt manipulation. If currencies are not related to a specific, freely traded commodity that all may objectively assess, then you are whistling in the dark and playing with fire. It takes far less heat to ignite paper than it does to melt gold. GENERAL: I hope it doesn't come to the NEED for a home arsenal and survival situation, but you are right that some sort of provision for any unusual dislocation of normal services, and commerce, might be wise. Even a severe storm or natural disaster would require what you have described. I think gold bullion coins - 24 carat Maple Leafs, Philharmonics, Nuggets, etc, - are probably the best way for the average citizen to hold some reasonable amount of gold. WHERE it is stored is a whole 'nother subject. When your pants start falling down, it may be time for a safe, a vault, a bank, or a hole in the ground. There are all kinds of opinions on that one. MORE GOLD: Funny image - modern traders and financial execs buried with the paper!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 12:57
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
They are trying real hard to get 8000 before the weekemd arn't they!

Gold having a dead cat rally...


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 12:56
RF engr. ion mover>(ion mover):
Cherokee,

You should look into HAARP a bit further. It’s not a pop gun - the military is running the show.

Here are some background pages:

http://www.mediarare.com/haarp.html

http://www.xyz.net/~nohaarp/pandora.htm


Here’s the navy’s HAARP page, which presents the project in a kinder, gentler way:

http://server5550.itd.nrl.navy.mil/projects/haarp/


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 12:53
Funday Bay>(Bay):
What do you attribute the increasing life span to? John Wayne or maybe better quailty flag material?


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 12:48
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
To further complete my previous rumour post. Some want the gold price down at 1974-76 levels of under US$135 for Gold. They idea is that Australia will be trading directly with Russia. Russia is also supposed to be bringing Libya into the picture somehow also. I find it interesting that Gold Bullion trading has JUST started in Russia. Highly interesting conjunture of information in one day from two separate source for me. Eventually gold will move back up to around $300 as a new longer term high. My Rothschild contact just got back from Europe. Is saying that gold will most likely move below $300. Quite possibly $270. But the feeling is that value is starting to kick in now. Snooping around for a few buys in the near future. Will be starting immediate project to re-value all gold mining stocks to see if they can weather life under $300 long term. A big job to do.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 12:48
Donald @Work>(@Work):
EZAU: Here is mine for what it is worth, an easy 330 followed by an iffy 340, followed by 290 over two months.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 12:47
Cobol working on it>(working on it):
FROM July 11, 1997 USA Today

There is a 98% probability of this happenning VERY SOON. What will the investors do?!!!!
WHAT WILL YOU DO?

Banks vulnerable to year 2000 glitch
WASHINGTON - Lost transaction records, funds suddenly made inaccessible, miscalculated interest and even failures of some banks. The financial industry is especially vulnerable to year 2000 computer
problems, yet only about 10% of banks and other companies have completed programs to handle them, an expert said Thursday. The potential computer crisis starting Jan. 1, 2000, could cause consumers
to lose faith in the security of their banks and the financial markets, several experts told a hearing of the Senate Banking subcommittee on financial services and technology. Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., said there likely would be a deluge of litigation against banks and financial companies by consumers who lose
money. The warnings came as the White House released a report concluding that the federal government could face a partial computer crash in 2000 because it is moving too slowly to fix the millennium problem. Of the nearly 4,500 critical computer systems the government must repair, including those for national defense, air traffic control and income taxes, only 6% have been fixed, according to the report by the Office of Management and Budget. When the forerunners of today's massive computer programs were first
designed, storage space was at a premium. To save memory space on the old-fashioned mainframes, code writers simply omitted the first two numbers of a date. That means 1998, for example, would read as 98, 1999 as 99, and so on. The year 2000 would be read as 00. Since the systems are coded to assume that all years begin with 19, computers will interpret 00 to mean 1900, if changes are not made.
The financial industry, too, is running out of time to repair the problem, the experts told the Senate panel.
Companies need to have a solution in place by the end of next year in order to allow a year for testing in 1999, said Larry Martin, president of Data Dimensions Inc., a consulting firm based in Bellevue, Wash.
We have figured out a way, Martin said. But is there time for everyone to get the job done? Not unless they start immediately. Otherwise, he warned, ***there will be failures ****of some financial
institutions. Martin estimated that only around 10% of the banking and financial industry is ready for 2000.
The lack of concern and action on the part of the international banking community is particularly distressing, he testified. ****The ability of international banks to operate effectively after the year 2000 is, in our estimate, seriously in question.***
If there are bank failures resulting from the year 2000 problem, taxpayers would ultimately foot the bill for any government bailout, noted Jeff Jinnett, president of LeBoeuf Computing Technologies.
One large U.S. bank, BankBoston NA, expects to spend some $50 million over four years to cope with its 2000 problems, said David Iacino, senior manager of the bank's Millennium Project. Even if a bank is prepared, it could be adversely affected by its close links to other financial institutions that are not, Iacino said. The parent of the Nasdaq Stock Market, the nation's second-largest, started its 2000 program in June 1996 at a cost of around $20 million, Nasdaq President Alfred R. Berkeley III told the subcommittee.
***Even if nearly all the nation's banks and financial institutions become prepared for 2000, a highly publicized computer system failure of one of them could have a negative impact on stocks of other financial companies, some experts believe.***

By The Associated Press



Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 12:47
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
To further complete my previous rumour post. Some want the gold price down at 1974-76 levels of under US$135 for Gold. They idea is that Australia will be trading directly with Russia. Russia is also supposed to be bringing Libya into the picture somehow also. I find it interesting that Gold Bullion trading has JUST started in Russia. Highly interesting conjunture of information in one day from two separate source for me. Eventually gold will move back up to around $300 as a new longer term high. My Rothschild contact just got back from Europe. Is saying that gold will most likely move below $300. Quite possibly $270. But the feeling is that value is starting to kick in now. Snooping around for a few buys in the near future. Will be starting immediate project to re-value all gold mining stocks to see if they can weather life under $300 long term. A big job to do.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 12:45
MoreGold @Cobol>(@Cobol):
Scott: Hold on to your hat. Someone just estimated that in europe the cost of fixing systems ( YEAR2000 ) will increase from 1 to $4. per line of code, as the millenium nears. Hourly rates for experienced programmers could well skyrocked. Already a shortage...


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 12:34
Savage perusing sgain>(perusing sgain):
You know, it occurred to me a while ago ( as I was mowing the lawn ) ...if someone ( big ) was serious about building a substantial interest in gold; they would have to be an idiot to announce it. Sounds pretty simple doesn't it? ...too simple for me... Unless, of course, it was an Honor thing...en garde? We shall see.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 12:28
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Fed holds key to future of Gold Hoards.
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970712/business/business11.html
An interesting column from Sydney. We all know about the Fed Paper he is referring to. I find it a bit unbelievable that Australia's Reserve Bank Governor hasn't read the Gold is Dead Fed paper. But then, maybe he doesn't know how to use the Net!!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 12:25
panda @old.news.revisited>(@old.news.revisited):
What! The Japanese don't trust the Russian palladium supply line! How could this BE! :- ) )

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/10/z0009_43.html


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 12:18
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
If you havn't noticed yet, gold is currently crashing upwards. Check the XAU graph.

http://fast.quote.com/fq/briefing/chart?symbols=INDEX:$XAU.X&time_period=1-minute%20Bars&bars=600&newstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key=


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 12:15
panda @no.problem!>(@no.problem!):
Steve - Perth -- Here's the URL, it's DBCs headlines.

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/newsroom/headlines.html?SOURCE=core/dbc


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 12:04
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Cobol : Lucky I did the degree in information technology ( database systems ) . As 2000 nears, I will be worth more than the yellow stuff an hour! Strategy boys, strategy...


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 11:57
it-does'nt-matter if-you-can't-beat-em---join-em!!!!!!!>(if-you-can't-beat-em---join-em!!!!!!!):
cherokee @23:59

thanks for the cabbit story, and for
giving hep-cat a viable alternative
handle!

HEP-RAT-CAT-----------------------

it works for me !; )


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 11:54
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
PANDA: Huge favour to ask. Could you please post back on Kitco the URL for 09:12 RUSSIAN BANK HOLDS FIRST BULLION TRADING IN RUSSIA IN 70
YEARS. Thanks very muchly. I have been searching in vain for it, but cannot find it.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 11:53
Cobol working on the problem>(working on the problem):
THIS PROBLEM WILL AFFECT THE PRICE OF GOLD AND YOUR LIFELSYLE SHORTLY!!!
The WASHINGTON POST ( July 10 ) ran a long article: Government Said to Move Too Slowly on Year 2000 Computer Problem. The subhead: Partial Crash Poosible if Machines Aren't Able to Recognize Date, Specialists Warn. There are 4,500 mission critical computer systems that must be repaired. Only 6% are fixed. [That is, 6% have been said by someone, somewhere, to be fixed, sort of, if you know what I mean: It's close
enough for government work.]
About 35% have undergone a systems analysis. This is the simplest step. [The California White Paper estimates that this is about 1% of the job.]
Thomas D. Oleson of International Data Corp., a y2k consulting firm, is quoted as saying the government's situation is way behind the eight ball. Fixing it is nearing the point of impossibility. Social Security: of those parts of its system that need repairing, half have been fixed, says a government report. [This is significant. They have been working at SSA since 1991 to get this problem fixed. This is mid-1997. What does this tell you? What does it apparently NOT tell reporters who cover the y2k story?]
Defense: The agency has 4,000 systems. Over 2,700 need to be fixed. The agency is 23% done with renovation, and 8% have been tested.

Government Said to Move Too Slowly on Year 2000 Computer Problem
Partial Crash Possible if Machines Aren't Able to Recognize Date, Specialists Warn
By Rajiv Chandrasekaran
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, July 10, 1997; Page E01
The Washington Post
The federal government could face a partial computer crash in the year 2000 because it is moving too slowly to fix its machines so they will understand dates that don't begin with 19, according to a growing number of technology specialists. Of the nearly 4,500 mission-critical computer systems the government needs to repair – which include those that handle defense, air traffic control and income tax functions -- only 6 percent have been fixed, according to an Office of Management and Budget report that will be released at a House subcommittee hearing today.
About 35 percent of those computers needing repairs have not even undergone a systems analysis, the first and simplest step in the renovation process, the report said.
They're not on a time schedule that looks like it's going to be doable, said Ann K. Coffou, a research director at Giga Information Group, a Cambridge, Mass., industry research firm that specializes in so-called year 2000 issues. They're suffering from `analysis paralysis.' There's too much work to be done . . . and at this point in the game, it's very, very distressing.
Most large computer systems use a two-digit dating system that assumes 1 and 9 are the first two digits of the year. Without specialized reprogramming, the systems will think the year 2000 -- or 00 -- is 1900, a glitch that is expected to make most of them go haywire unless the problem fixed. For the government, the year 2000 problem could result in computers that come to a sudden halt and others that generate erroneous data, such as wrong Medicare checks or tax bills, computer experts say. In a worst-case scenario, computers that control military defense systems or sensitive communications between federal agencies could be rendered inoperable, some specialists warn. Thomas D. Oleson, a year 2000 computer analyst at International Data Corp., a consulting firm in Framingham, Mass., characterized the government's situation as way behind the eight ball. Fixing the government's computers on time, he said, is nearing the point of impossibility. Oleson and other industry analysts expect the federal computer systems that handle the government's most critical functions to be fixed before the Dec. 31, 1999, deadline. But many others systems, including some that perform significant tasks for federal employees and ordinary people, could still be in the electronic repair shop in 2000, they warn. It's become increasingly clear that agencies are not going to be able to correct everything before the year 2000, said Joel C. Willemssen, the director of information resources management at the General Accounting Office, the watchdog arm of Congress. We're going to have to start making priorities among all the systems we view as critical. The specialists said it is too early to identify specific systems that might not be reprogrammed in time, but they said those would become clearer later this year as agencies begin focusing their efforts. In its report, which was produced at the behest of a congressional committee, the OMB maintains that the progress of federal agencies is generally on schedule and that the agencies have made a good start in addressing the year 2000 problem. Of the 7,649 computer systems in the executive branch other than the Social Security Administration, 21 percent -- or 1,598 -- already comply with year 2000 requirements. An additional 9 percent will be fully replaced and 8 percent will be scrapped, the report said. At Social Security, long hailed as the federal agency that has been most attentive to year 2000 problems, 71 percent of its systems don't need to be fixed. Of those that do need repairing, half have been fixed, the report said. The report estimates the cost of renovating computers throughout the government at $2.8 billion, a $500 million increase from an estimate released by the OMB in February. OMB officials said yesterday that figure is expected to cross the $3 billion mark and could eventually grow to as much as $5 billion. There's still a lot of work to be done, but I think we're on track, said Sally Katzen, OMB's director of information and regulatory affairs, who has been spearheading the government's year 2000 efforts. The report identifies the Agriculture, Education, Justice and Transportation departments as those that have about half their systems or more left to analyze. No department, except for Interior and Veterans Affairs, has more than 25 percent of its systems renovated. At the Department of Housing and Urban Development, which has 206 computer systems, 115 need to be repaired. Although the department is halfway through analyzing those 115 systems, it has only renovated 2 percent of them, the report said.
At the Defense Department, which has almost 4,000 systems, by far the most of any government agency, more than 2,700 of them need to be fixed. The agency is only 23 percent done with renovating the systems, and only 8 percent of them actually have been tested and are considered fully fixed, according to the document. The government's progress is expected to come under fire from members of the House Science Committee and the Government Reform and Oversight Committee, which are holding a joint hearing into the matter today, congressional aides said. In addition to questioning the pace of repair work, committee leaders will criticize several agencies' schedules for repairs, which call for finishing work in November and December 1999. They haven't left themselves with a margin for error in case something goes wrong, said Rep. Constance A. Morella ( R-Md. ) , chairwoman of the Science Committee's technology subcommittee.
Committee members also will probe whether any government agencies are now buying software that is not year 2000 compliant, aides said.
STATE OF REPAIR: Status of Mission-Critical Systmes Being Repaired at
Selected Agencies

Number
of Assessment Renovation Implementation
Agency systems % complete % complete % complete

Agriculture 469 41% 0% 0%

Commerce 162 75 7 5

Defense 2,752 64 23 8

Education 7 30 0 0

HUD 115 50 2 2

Justice 118 52 2 0

DOT 132 50 10 0

NASA 211 75 2 1

All federal 4,493 65 17 6
agencies

Source: Office of Management and Budget




Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 11:43
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
To All
Gold Fields group results are in for the quarter

East Dries produced 6518 kg vs 6354 prior quarter
West Dries produces 5956 Kg vs 5784 prior quarter

Cost before capex east dries 214 $/oz
Cost before capex west dreis 264 $/oz

profit .187 Rand /share versus .245 prior quarter.


Kloof results were much worse but more interesting

profit -.420 R/share versus -.04 prior quater

but on costs

Kloof itself produced 5572 KG versus 4851 prior
quarter at a cost of 281 $/oz
The leeudoorn division produced 1770 versus 1892
prior quarter at a cost of 450$/oz
The Libanon division produced 2391 versus 2645
prior quarter at a cost of 352 $/oz.

Thus Kloof ( by closing leeudoorn and libanon )
can breakeven on almost 60 % of total production
down to 280 $/oz.

Dries breaks even on all production to 264$/oz
and on about half to 214/oz.

For info RSA's highest cost platinum mine Northam
almost broke even last quarter. With a loss of only
620000 rand versus 18 million the prior quarter. It is
one of the world's great speculations IF you believe in
platinum.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 11:30
Donald @Work>(@Work):
Toyota president has target for dollar-yen

http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 11:29
ezau swami@sag.mars>(swami@sag.mars):
ANYBODY:So, this is not a quetion re wine , etc, but what are your
thoughts on the gold trend now? Holding before further
declines? Waffeling for a spell then up? What?


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 11:22
JohnC Back@Sunny Brisbane>(Back@Sunny Brisbane):
Greetings All,
In the FWIW category, Normandy Mining Ltd ( NDY.ASX ) is
Australia's
largest gold producer, producing 1.51 million ounces in
the year to June 30th. Prior to this weeks ( RBA inspired? )
fall in AU and AU stocks, it had touched a $1.54 low and
a $1.55 low.

Well on Tuesday morning it traded as low as $1.22...
( I believe Millhouse or one of our other OZ watchers said
it was a very good buy at $1.23. ) On Thursday it was the
highest volume stock on the ASX ( 20 million + ) , and today
it traded at least 12 million and closed around ( you
guessed it ) $1.55.

To George Cole...is this the sort of price action the XAU
stocks should show when the bottom is signalled ?

Happy trading to All !


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 11:21
Patriot @LeftWingExtremistLiberalHogwash>(@LeftWingExtremistLiberalHogwash):
Fundy@09:10 Spare us the Save the Children crap children will die as the stores of vaccines run out as their manufacturers go out of business. Probably the best thing to happen to the children will be a demise of the chemical/drug companies that are poisoning us all. Hope they ALL go out of business, and I for one will help to shutter their doors!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 11:10
panda @earthquakes>(@earthquakes):
Someone previously posted this URL for earthquakes, sorry, but I forgot who it was. Anyhow, if you can get in, it is interesting.

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 11:02
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
On a tragic note, while you are counting your gold losses ( more to come ) , spare a thought for the guys who mine the stuff, and their widows. I discovered tonight that a good client of mine & a gold miner died a day or so ago in the Bounty mine owned by Forrestania Gold at Southern Cross, Western Australia. A strong earthquake hit, & the roof fell in. They say 450 tonnes of rock hit him, killing him instantly. It took nine hours to dig him out. As I do the family life insurance etc, I have the interesting task of assisting his widow with the financial aftermath. He leaves two teenagers. It was on the evening news tonight.
I note this, in response also to the Quake in Venezuela, which I noted from CMAX? a day or so ago. They featured the collapsed building. 200 died they said. The earthquakes are picking up lately.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 11:01
Mooney @Puetz,Cmax,Lurker777>(@Puetz,Cmax,Lurker777):
Mr.Puetz, your 4:31 this morning was also a definite keeper; precise and informative. Thank-You. Have a great vacation! Cmax - Things are really shaking down your way. Hang-in! Lurker777 - I remember well your discussion about the kinebars. At least you got to take a stab with a limited downside. But check with Glenn before buying those Dec. 400's. Last fall and this winter many here thought that they would be good 'lottery tickets' but prices have eroded substantially since then. The situation has changed but not the concept. Perhaps other prices and months would now be more suitable for such a play.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 11:00
MoreGold @Mike 6:48>(@Mike 6:48):
The ancient Egyptians were often burried with their wealth, beleiving they could take it into their afterlife. I man burried with 2 kilo's of
Gold was considered to be very rich. What will the wall streeters take with them today, a briefcase of paper, high yield bonds, or their american express.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 10:55
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
CHEROKEE: Thanks a MILLION for highlighting the DOW 8000 site. Excellent. You are right, it has well over 3 hours reading in it. All BRILLIANT!!! http://nw3.nai.net/~virtual/sot/dow8000.htm
Most of these ideas I have considered to be highly realistic. Gold will be doing well then!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 10:47
Milhouse Gold>(Gold):

STEVE - PERTH & SCOTTY : Thanks for posting the Australian news articles. I often find it difficult in HK keeping up with the latest from Oz. Please keep posting.

RJ and ALL : RJ's comment that gold is the only commodity which is not consumed is correct. This is simply because gold is money. You don't consume money, you accumulate it or you exchange it for something else of value or you blow it by investing in the Dow stocks at these levels. Another point to note - over 70% of the world's above ground stock of gold is held for monetary purposes, and of this monetary gold about 40% is held in the form of jewellery. Most of the gold sold to Asia and the Middle East is turned into monetary jewellery, not fashion jewellery. This jewellery is made of pure gold and is stored in safe places in the same way that gold bars are kept in the West.

STEVE PUETZ : Thanks for your 04:31 post - it fills a gap in my knowledge.

MIKE SHELLER : Thought your 06:48 post was great, but couldn't disagree more with your 08:34. You said that gold is not money simply because someone says it is money. Actually, this is the reason why gold is money and the other items you mention, such as tomatos, are not. It is a value judgement made by billions of people throughout the history of the civilised world. The reasons why people say it is money is because it perfectly fits the criteria of the ideal form of money ( rare, indestructible, transportable, valuable, etc ) .

Regards, Milhouse


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 10:27
Uris @DFW Airport>(@DFW Airport):
Mike Sheller: I totally agree that gold is a real thing that real people
like, myself included. What I dont like is the fact that the price of
gold is being manipulated by someone with a few keystrokes on a computer.

I think like you that the sh_t will hit the fan in the paper markets,
however I dont look for Sam to go belly up as long as the people doing
the manipulating have their computer.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 10:12
BillD Mike's 6:48 A,>(Mike's 6:48 A,):
Mike & Mooney...yep whatta post...I actually printed it out...one of a few that I want to really stop and take a hard look. I, too, thought it was fantabiousssss!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 10:07
KGB @in hiding>(@in hiding):
Truk on mov now. Vill tak senik rout thru Albania. Siberia highvay is crowded vith heppy Russian vacationers. ( 50% Russians on vacation )


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 10:04
Mooney @Sheller>(@Sheller):
Mike - Your 6:48 this A.M. was fantabulous! A keeper for all on this site!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 09:53
Mooney @Uris>(@Uris):
You become a victim only if you want to become a victim - Mooney 1997.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 09:47
panda @!!>(@!!):
I must go, and increase my productivity now. :- ) )


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 09:46
panda @>(@):
BillD -- How heavy are those trucks? :- ) )

The 'game' is going to get interesting from here on in. How many of those twenty something stock jockeys realize what the PPI is saying? If there's no pricing power on the part of wholesalers, whither earnings?

The hell with the printing presses, get me a super computer with a bazillion Hertz CPU and start creating book entries everywhere! :- ) )


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 09:41
panda @what's this about?>(@what's this about?):
09:12 RUSSIAN BANK HOLDS FIRST BULLION TRADING IN RUSSIA IN 70 YEARS.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 09:40
BillD Pl and Pa up >(Pl and Pa up ):
Panda...have you seen any news on Pl or Pa...both are up in the futures market this morning? Think those Ruskii's trucks are loaded?


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 09:39
panda @>(@):
Deflation, then inflation. You got to scare'em good!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 09:37
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Larry: Forget Larry North. He is complely wrong with regard to PC's ability to get to year 2000. More BS. Windows 95 is ready for 2000 now.
Uris: Anti paper movement is underway. Canada has done away with the dollar bill and replaced it with the dollar coin. The reason. It is cheaper to make metal coins than paper. Hard to put that into the paper is worthless mantra.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 09:24
Larry thecobolman>(thecobolman):
Uris:
See http://www.garynorth.com


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 09:10
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
When paper becomes worthless and all transactions are done in gold there will be about a decade while the existing economy and cars and stoves and TV's wear out. Then we will have to move all the existing gold in the world around to make transactions. Commerce will not be able to function as we have developed during the past 200 years and businesses will collapse. Shortly we will all be living worse than the Cubans will nothing new in sight. The death rates will rise as the hospitals decline, children will die as the stores of vaccines run out as their manufacturers go out of business. Transportation will collapse as the governments will be unable to maintain the roads. Then with 150 years of pollution to handle we will find water taking on a new an unwanted value.
I prefer plastic and paper to oxcart and early death.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 08:52
general to Mike Sheller>(to Mike Sheller):
Mike, you make an excellent point which can be carried over to
also developing a food and goods storage program, gun and ammo
storage program, etc. Hopefully, you will never need it, but
it will always be there, it will always have inherent value,
and you can always use it even for non-emergency uses. What do
you recommend as the best way to hold gold bullion for storage
purposes?


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 08:50
Scotty remember IBM?>(remember IBM?):
Remember IBM not-too-long-ago? It was selling at $45 dollars a share? Everyone thought: what a loser. Well, I bought a hundred shares ( am I a high roller or what? ) and watched them go to $138 or so and couldn't take it any more and exited with a cool tripling of my moola. IBM continued to $175 ( or so ) , went down a bit, then went up a bit and then split 2-1 a month or two ago.

My point? Gold is in that loser stage right now. Just like IBM, gold will never be a loser. It may not be getting any respect right now, but it certainly is not a loser. IBM came back much stronger than even the blues blue chip analysts predicted. Once the fundies change ( say, like when paper is worthless or there is a crisis or everyone wants gold bracelets ) then gold will start moving up a-la IBM. Remember, you heard it here first!!!



Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 08:44
Scotty scotty@codenet.net>(scotty@codenet.net):
Donald.....I'm usually not up this early....but I took a look at Kitco to see if gold was shaken. Not! Regarding your reserve currency scenario: although I agree in principle, I don't agree to the extent that a calamity is imminent. Bartering? Perhaps.....just in case, I have been quietly unloading all my rental real-estate. I will pay off my debts and keep accumulating gold eagles.

At these levels, I'm buying all I can afford -- without my wife finding out! So, instead of taking out a mortgage to buy gold, I'm just dumping everything. The final result is I have gold with no outstanding debt. Coooollll!!

Also, I'm off to a big coin show today. I'll snoop around with my coin dealer cohorts and see how they feel about the big dump in gold. I'll report back......





Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 08:40
auroelf in TED's absence>(in TED's absence):
dbc Market Monitor reports US PPI for June down .1%, core rate up .1%


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 08:34
Mike Sheller pointless task?>(pointless task?):
URIS: You don't seem to get the point. Gold is not money because someone says its money. It's money like Wheat, or Tomatoes, or a new Lexus, or a shovel or a piece of land is money. It is a REAL thing that real people like, use, buy and sell. MONEY is REAL THINGS THAT HAVE A REAL USE. Paper receipts for real things, or electronic notations in a computer, or IOU's, or plastic cards are meaningless when you cant get a shovel, or a piece of land, or a Lexus when you need it because someone slipped you a phony piece of paper or a worthless string of numbers in your electronic account. When the Iraqis invaded Kuwait, they left the Kuwaitis with Zeroes in their electronic teller machines. Gold will be irrelevant as money when we no longer need physical bodies. While it is a state to perhaps be working toward, in some wise, it won't happen here. When the sh-t hits the fan and SAM goes belly up, would you prefer paper, or plastic? Or gold?


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 08:26
Donald @Work>(@Work):
PANDA & SCOTTY, yours at 23:03 and 23:08. The Whiffff of currency crisis is real and a replay of the 30's. During that worldwide ordeal the US helped England which had to devalue its Pound. The English Pound was the reserve currency of the world. The US dollar and the US government was rock solid and the dollar began its role, which it still carries, as the accepted currency of world trade and reserve.

Things are enormously different now. There is no apparent successor to the dollar. A currency crisis now would reduce world trade to barter or to a cumbersome gold exchange system. Living standards worldwide would be reduced.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 08:26
Mike Sheller PLATINUM UPDATE @thechartz>(PLATINUM UPDATE @thechartz):
With its recent spike, PT has broken out of a 10 year Rhino price pattern downtrend since 1987. ( For the unimaginative, or graphically challenged, Let a kid look at the chart for you. He'll show you the Rhino ) . PT has come back and corrected in what looks like a classic return move, preparatory to another leg up. Inasmuch as a supply situation has decoupled PT from gold, we can shift our attention from Venus ( significator of gold in the NYSE horoscope ) to Neptune, classic significator of Platinum, & PG metals. Placed at 27 Libra, NYSE Neptune will be conjuncted by Mars during the 2nd week of August. Actually the 9th, 10th, 11th. This could be peak of activity, but we want to be watching to either side of this time window as well, for unusual Platinum activity.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 08:23
Uris @DFW Airport>(@DFW Airport):
I just listened to a story on NPR about the New York subway system
transition to debit cards which will obsolete the 100 year old famous
NY city subway token. The same situation applies to gold. The physical
metal is being phased out and being replaced with electronic paper.

We are victims of our own computer revolution,


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 08:17
panda @>(@):
Lan Man -- Any info would be greatly appreciated.

And YES! I have successfully talked myself in to my previous scenario, at least for the next fifteen minutes or so.... :- ) I will adjust my reality as needed, and as often as needed. It seems to work for the dippies.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 07:54
panda @contrarian.thought>(@contrarian.thought):
Just a thought, but what if the PPI numbers came in BELOW expectations ( no change is expected ) ? Let's say that the PPI came in at small negative numbers, just enough to cause a deflationary scare. This would enable, even justify, a lowering of interest rates and the ADDITION of liquidity to the markets. Clearly there is currency turmoil in the PacRim area. A deflationary 'aura' must created so that the creation of inflation will be welcomed, even desired, to stave off the, 'deflation'.

A crazy scenario, but, it would see rising equity prices along with rising gold prices. This is to bizarre a thought, never mind.

Next, I'll be accused of being in da Nile river. I mean denial....


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 07:27
tanami @commercial puetz>(@commercial puetz):
interesting post on long hedging steve, was naively thinking that
the commercial longs were speculative. Is it a possibilty that
industrial users are picking the current price as a low
and buying for future delivery at the current price and that the
present situation is not actually short of physical gold? It may
be cheaper for the commercials to do a call option than take
physical delivery and store the gold. If anybody had experience
of wether the commercials do in fact do this, it would be
intersting to know.
It also be interesting to see what the month/open interest
distribution is for the long's.
lease rates seem an interesting indicator, can one put in
a plug for platinum and palladium lease rates as well as
gold and silver on this the best of the best site?


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 06:48
Mike Sheller friday morning sermonette...>(friday morning sermonette...):
WW: ( 4:10 ) You liberals sure have a way with words! Well said. A well-deserved champion of the impecunious. ALL: Clearly a distinction must be made by now concerning the two essential factions ( hopefully not warring ) that occupy Kitco cybersoil. There are those who view gold essentially as just another commodity, subject to the general and specific laws of supply and demand. Like Wheat, corn, soybeans, or bizmuth. They are impatient with those who ascribe to the yellow metal any importance other than what others are willing to pay for it now, or, at most, a couple of months hence. Such folk are more likely to be short gold than others, and as likely to be short as long. And, as befits their philosophy this is proper and right. Their insights concerning market activity and human behavior in the midst thereof are usually underpinned by the wisdom of battle-scarred experience. They have much to tell us.

Then there are those who see gold as something more than just a commodity to be traded. They have integrated gold into a world-view that stretches beyond a few weeks, and a range of a few dollars, to extended times past and future. Times that span many lifetimes in either direction. Times that cumulatively offer up such wisdom as could be of no possible value to any speculator or investor, except to distant heirs. Great principles of human behavior and nation building reveal themselves to those who study the history of gold, and extrapolate its potential future. A cosmology, a world view, a philosophy cannot help but be galvanized and developed within such minds. The shoulders of giants become more accessible to those who stretch upward in such a direction, for the giants then deign to stoop for a moment for us to clamber upon them for a better view.

Forgoing a few dollars here, a few dollars there, those who take a long-term view of gold tie themselves to the unfolding drama of mankind upon the earth in ways that renumerate the mind and soul. It is not merely about money, and profit and loss of dollars and cents in an individual account. It is about the entire mystery of life, and an important segment thereof. That is a cosmic calling. In the end we all leave here as impecunious as we came. We can only take with us what we have developed in our spirit. If our life was expended on meaningless expediency, if our intelligence was wasted on superficiality, what does it profit us if we gained the world but lost our soul?


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 06:09
Goldbug23 @Omega Minus One>(@Omega Minus One):
Panda, Your Jul 10 23:03 The coming currency turmoil is the weak link in this whole bubble and will cause the blow up. I believe we have company with our friend Soros. If I wasn't full up I would buy more ingots here.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 05:59
The Last Goldbug Tiger Fund>(Tiger Fund):

The statement Prime Minister Hashimoto made about selling US Government Bonds and buying gold was in reply to a question asked by an employee of THE TIGER FUND. Interesting.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 04:46
Jack WW makes sense>(WW makes sense):

RJ: What WW said wrote at ( 4:10 ) makes a lot of sense. Now I will make a remark.
Has anyone ever seen all this gold, that is sloshing around the world Anyone Anybody Andy? Ted?, how about you Bubba?_______hmmmmmm.
On the otherhand, I can almost bet that most of the posters here can buy a car with their credit card ( s ) .
Now thats what I call creditable.
I can understand Prime Minister Hashimoto, the Japanese work their butts off. Their land is not endowned with natural resources. They have accomplished a real miracle.
But Yoshi Yakamoto Japanese Engineer he say. We have whole bunchee dollars.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 04:31
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
UNDERSTANDING the Commitment-of-Traders report: Hedgers are not speculators. For example, in the gold market, to understand the position of the large commercials, you must distinguish between long-hedgers and short-hedgers.

Traders at gold mines who use the futures markets are generally short-hedgers. That is, they sell futures to lock-in a specific price for gold they anticipate mining at some distant date.

Gold dealers can be either long-hedgers or short-hedgers. An example of a commercial dealer is Englhard Minerals.


A commercial dealer becomes a short-hedger when the dealer buys physical gold from a mining company and cannot find a satisfactory outlet to sell the gold. In this case, the dealer hedges the exact number of ounces of gold-futures as he purchased from the mining company. At some later date, when a physical buyer emerges, the gold-hedger buys back the futures, and sells the physical gold. Hence, the hedge is liquidated.

A commercial dealer becomes a long-hedger in the reverse case from the above. If the dealer finds a physical buyer, but cannot locate physical gold, the dealer sells the physical gold ( for delivery by a specified date ) , and he buys the exact number of gold-futures to offset his risk. The long-hedger has an extra option in this case, if he still can't locate the physical gold to buy, he can take delivery of the gold at the Comex warehouse -- and thus obtain the physical gold. Taking delivery does not normally happen, but under unusual circumstanes, it guarantees the long-hedger a physical source for gold. When the long-hedger finds the physical gold, he buys the cash gold, and liquidates ( sells ) his gold-futures position.

Hence, from the most recent Commitment-of-Traders Report, it's virtually certain that the huge commercial long position is the result of activity by gold-dealers who have become long-hedgers. Specifically, these hedgers have sold physical-gold for delivery in the not-too-distant future, but they have been unable to buy enough nearby physical-gold to meet the demand. As a result, they have bought gold-futures to hedge themselves against a run-up in the gold price. A large commercial hedged-long represents mandatory future demand in the physical gold market.

Tomorrow, I will be leaving for a 1-week vacation in Cape Hatteras, NC. I will miss the postings here at Kitco. I'll probably check in one or two more times before I leave. Take care of the markets while I'm gone!!


,


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 04:10
WW @New England>(@New England):
RJ: The gold deficits over the last seven years have been filled by CB selling. Much of this gold was consumed in fabrication of jewelry and industrial uses. Gold as A PERCENTAGE of CB reseves is at an all time low. Investor demand is practically zero so talk of demonetization is idiotic as it has already occurred. Further, through forward selling and option selling there is much gold sold which has yet to be produced. Further, the Wesrern Debt burdened countries have just about shot their wad. Russia China and Japan will be buyers. Finally, through the massive gold loans ( which are not offset against CB reserves ) much of the gold is probably gone.

I understand Wall St concern re gold A ) they are warehousers of exploding debt and lower gold makes investors more comfortable handing over their stash. B ) They have a stk mkt credit bubble second to none which can only last as long as goldilocks ( fake ) economy notion rules and thus the mislaid confidence of the masses continues to feed their coffers. Call it ALBANIA with a High Tech Twist!! With 24% of the work force unemployed or working part-time it is the growing credit bubble which is the threat.

As a percent of bank reserves and in comparison to Paper in circulation plus with gold loans and forward sales Gold has never known a greater comparative shortage situation. RJ the comparative notion is critical as we are talking about markets which are governed by supply and demand.
The only thing ( which may continue ) keeping gold down is the well timed and I believe becoming desparate Wall St. paper raids on gold to prevent ANY investor demand from developing. We all know how manipulation ends/ Just ask the Hunts and the Japanese,Taiwanese and Koreans about their Financial Community/Govt created STK mkt bubbles that burst!!

Enough said the facts speak loudly!!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 04:09
EB closing comments...tv14...>(closing comments...tv14...):
Gunrunner - Cheeseburger's = Budweiser 97' Van Nuys, CA.
Pizza Man - I believe JO has already figured in the medfly wildcard w/ the spike in early May. JOX7 is still a decent trade, though, if you wait a while longer. Fundamentals: There are WAY to FREAKING many oranges ( they can say it on tv... )
Front - TTFN=Time To F*** Now?
Steve Perth - Thanks for the info. I have a plan to holiday ( as you say ) in Aus. one of these days. I always hear great things...
GOLD - Bad Boy, Bad Boy, What you gonna do? ( sung to that Cops song )
Cherokee - You are going on a limb, happy trading! Looks good
KGB - still waiting for those trucks...
RJ - Lymericks
EB - GO TO BED!!! Ok

away

eb


Has anyone seen Men in Black yet? Great flick! Different perspectives...


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 04:06
Jack I was born poor>(I was born poor):

While I don't hope to be the richest guy in the cemetary......RJ you has this wonnavul way wit woids......impecuniosity.
RJ: I have a question, can they print gold?
I know it sounds simple minded, but how can they print money and back it interest payments and continue this indefinately?
All currencies have fallen against gold and the US dollar against most of the currencies. Why?


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 03:46
Mike Tyson @RJ>(@RJ):
I'm warning you!! Better knock off that racist slander or I'm comin to get yo.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 03:33
RJ Let's call a spade, a spade.>(Let's call a spade, a spade.):
WW - RE yours: in comparison to the above ground growth and existence of paper debt and leverage through derivatives / gold and the other precious metals are becoming scarcer by the day


What kind of hackneyed alchemy is this? Let’s ask, how many ounces are aboveground today? Are there more than last year? The year before? As the CBs have apparently relegated gold reserves to a substantially less important status , it would seem that your above statement is misdirection at best.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 03:22
RJ Lost my two cents>(Lost my two cents):
EB - Perhaps Jack's apparent impecuniosity has clouded his judgment.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 03:05
EB but one can understand why...>(but one can understand why...):
98% of all options expire worthless when you read posts like 777's.

Lurker777 - I mean absolutely no disrespect but you were just kidding about those DEC 410 calls, right? I think the math ( and this is under the wild assumption that gold will trade $190 higher by Nov. 14 ) is more close to $100,000. You are right, don't get greedy or you may end up IMPECUNIOUS.

AWAY...from trying to catch lightning in a bottle

EB!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 02:59
WW New England>(New England):
RJ MOST gold is consumed into jewelry and industrial/ 85%. The small remainder is accumulated above ground. Although CB sales have also been often consumed into jewelry. Anyway, in comparison to the above ground growth and existance of paper debt and leverage through deriviatives / gold and the other precious metals are becoming scarcer by the day.

If gold is such a joke why do Andy and Ted get all hot and bothered about such a small inconsequential mkt. In reality, if this were the cold war Andy and Ted act like the the PMs are the USSR not the Rwanda type investment they claim it to be.

Nuf said just the facts!!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 02:53
EB RJ and commodities...Uh oh! More BOMBAST>(RJ and commodities...Uh oh! More BOMBAST):
I chuckled and winced when I read Jack's comment. I KNEW you had to say something regarding your disdain for futures. This is one eclectic group! Gotta love it!!

AWAY::---------- ) ) )

EB



Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 02:44
EB Two to three glasses a day will keep the cancer away...>(Two to three glasses a day will keep the cancer away...):
Have you not read the NEW studies lately? I mean the newer studies that came After the new studies. In a nutshell, and I read this in the newspaper, it says that Red wine eats cancerous cells. Or something like that. So I got together with the neighbors last night to start our new cancer fighting regiment. We pulled out some really GOOD bottles and started working out. I gotta tell ya' though, I don't think I can make it to three glasses a night. Pocket book wise ( I don't like ripple ) OR brain cell wise. I was shaking the cob-webs out this a.m. I am a firm believer in moderation...I believe I touched on that in one of my first postings.

Moderation - Diversification

away

EB


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 02:40
Jack Sorry about the afr problem___RJ>(Sorry about the afr problem___RJ):

The failed article from the Austrailian Financial Review can be had using http://www.afr.com.au:80
Then hit their feature button. After reading, if you so desire, the editorial button is at the end of artical______also on front page.
RJ: I was a bit off, figure give was from the GFMS four year average, but it was for total demand. Actually the fabrication demand averages over 4 years to 101.6 million ounces annually or about 9.8+ years of CB reserves.
Gold and silver should be used as disciplines to prevent countries from issuing excessive credit and promises that cannot be honoured.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 02:40
RJ A call to arms>(A call to arms):
Mikey - I got bof yo ears hang......... Oh never mind.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 02:23
Mike Tyson Hey RJ>(Hey RJ):
You want some of me? You just try to head butt me and I'll come lookin for bof yo ears!



Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 02:18
RJ Commodities, Humphh!!!>(Commodities, Humphh!!!):
Jack @ 05:21 - I am not a commodities broker. I am a precious metals broker. All I do is metals. I don’t hate anybody. Except maybe………………………..


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 02:14
RJ You are very polite>(You are very polite):
Schippi @ 05:47 - Just remember: Gold, like EB’s Vino, is best used in moderation.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 02:02
RJ Its all clear now.>(Its all clear now.):
I guess Spot, or Rex would have been to obvious


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 01:55
RJ I just love a good conspiracy>(I just love a good conspiracy):
Larryn @ ( Rallytime ) - Your rally may peak at $330 and then drop like a martian rock to $300.

As for returning the gold from Mars, don’t be so sure. Why do you think they called the vehicle a Rover? Perhaps to fetch? Hmmmmmmmmmm…………


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 01:51
Jack Some news from OZ>(Some news from OZ):

From Austrialia, after this read, prepare to get sick from their editorial. http://www.afr.com.au:80/contents/970711/feature/feature1.html


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 01:47
RJ Shotgun approach to answers. Seems to save some time.>(Shotgun approach to answers. Seems to save some time.):

SCOTT @ 23:25 WE GRIN AND JUST RETURN FIRE - Excellent policy.


JACK @ 16:02 ( ABOUT 30 YEARS OF GOLD ) - I would rather concede the point than dig through endless gold numbers. I will not concede however, that gold moving from on stockpile to another is demand. I am talking about consumption. Just where is this 112 million ounces going every year? This is a more suspect number than my thirty years. If the gold is going to the mints to make coins, or being exchanged from one stockpile to another, it is not consumed. Gold is good for only three things now: Shorts, Women, and Mike Tyson’s teeth.

CEROKEE - Rufus who? Shoot holes in JLH? I gotta’ hear this guy!!!

BOB @ 1:39...RJ'S 30+ YR. GOLD SUPPLY - I agree that it is less important how much the CBs sell than their willingness to sell, and their timing. You comparisons to cars leave me befuddled. Gold changing hands is not consumption, it is accumulation. Every year, mining gets more efficient, more gold is mined, and most is then put in some vault. All this new gold will then spend the rest of its existence moving from one vault to another. The amount of gold aboveground is constantly increasing. Most platinum produced is consumed. The majority of silver is likewise consumed. The vast majority of gold is simply accumulated. Jewelry is consumption, electronics is consumption, Mike Tyson’s dentist is consumption.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 01:28
Lan Man Word is Out>(Word is Out):
2weeks - Don't give PMonk any ideas!


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 01:01
2weeks Larryn>(Larryn):
True, it can't be made into a return vehicle, but can't the Mars gold be leased without being brought back? T


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 00:50
Lan Man Awaiting More Info>(Awaiting More Info):
Panda: Will get back to you asa facts are rcvd.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 00:49
Lan Man Silver is where its at!>(Silver is where its at!):
Talk about perfect timing! On tuesday rcvd the July 21st issue of Insight magazine and inside its covers were two separate full page adds that were selling U.S. Morgan Silver dollars. The next day rcvd another advertisment in the mail hawking Silver Eagles. The eagles were quoted at $11.95 ea ( 1997 ) and the Morgans were $19.40 ea and $43.00 ea BU grade ( complete set - 15 coins - is only $595 ) encased in a lucite capsule and accompanied by a numbered Certificate of Authenticity no less. And no Virginia, they are NOT graded by PCGS or NGC.

After seeing these advertisments, I thought to myself Man! I'm in the wrong business. Wonder what kind of response these guys get from advertisments like these. Double or triple ( or more ) your cost - who says you can't make a killing in the pm's?



Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 00:32
Larryn Rallytime>(Rallytime):
Today's activity produced a preliminary buy signal. The near term bottom is in.

For conspiracy buffs: The big gold market fall was on the same day as the Mars landing. The market fell because one of the rock evaluations determined that one of the rocks was pure gold. This is not known by many people outside a small ring of insiders, who quickly sold gold short and messed up the market. In a few days, they will realize that the rover cannot be made into a return vehicle and gold will return to 350.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 00:25
Pascal mjackson@sccoast.net>(mjackson@sccoast.net):
Scotty, thanks for the posted article. It makes it seem that the recent plunge in gold mining stock prices was a knee jerk overreaction, since the Australian gold sale is history and was not done abruptly.
Just because the central banks think paper is more valuable than gold, it doesn't make it true. I appreciate the opportunity to accumulate both gold and mining shares at bargain prices. If it drops more, I will keep buying more.


Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 00:09
NEWS @4 U>(@4 U):

SYDNEY, July 11 ( Reuter ) - Australian shares opened slightly

firmer on Friday as gold shares regained some gloss on their

recently tarnished prices, while the broader market was helped

by the rebound on Wall Street.

The All Ordinaries index was 7.2 points up at 2,701.6 with

trade turnover A$105 million ( US$78 million ) .

The Dow industrials rose 44 points to 7,887 on Thursday.

Australia's gold index was up four percent, which helped tip

the broader resources index into the positive zone, while

industrials were weaker as bank shares came off the boil after

Thursday's strong run on hopes of a further monetary easing.

Traders said they expected the market to trade in a narrow

range as expectations of a rate cut were dampended by Treasurer

Peter Costello on Thursday after the release of June's weak jobs

data. The figures had earlier sparked a rally in yield stocks.

``It looks like they are not going to do anything on that

( interest rate cut ) ,'' Hassett said. On Thursday, Costello said

the market should wait for previous rate cuts to take effect.



Date: Fri Jul 11 1997 00:07
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Gold Mining Outlook

by Steven Jon Kaplan



Andy Smith, a precious metals analyst at the Union Bank of Switzerland, said Monday morning as gold was at $314 per troy ounce: It would take a Martian
to be bullish at this point.

Updated @ 5:20 p.m. EDT, Thursday, July 10, 1997.

COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities were moderately lower on Thursday, while precious metals mostly rallied. Gold was up $1.90, silver
rose 6.3 cents, platinum gained sixty cents, while palladium bucked the trend by declining $6.35. Analysts' and investors' sentiment remains
strongly bearish, with nearly all commentators stating some variation on the theme that gold rallied, but it is sure to fall rapidly to $300 an
ounce very soon. Small investors are surrendering gold mining holdings, as is evidenced by reports from gold fund managers reporting a record
number of liquidations of their smallest account holders. Thus, precious metals and their shares are moving from weak hands to strong. Anecdotal
personal confirmation: a buy order this morning of two thousand shares of Echo Bay Mines took five separate sell orders to fill. The little guy
always gives up at the bottom.

Open interest in COMEX gold futures increased by an additional 788 contracts on Wednesday to 218,754 contracts, the highest total in 18 months.
Based upon the July 1 COMEX traders' commitments indicating 70.7 thousand net long commercial contracts, as well as the increase in open
interest since then of 22.6 thousand contracts, commercials were net long 93.3 thousand contracts as of the close on Wednesday, July 9, 1997, by
far an all-time record. Those of you who claim that gold is just a commodity should answer this question: would you go short or long ANY
commodity with nearly one hundred thousand net long commercial contracts!

Short-selling speculators have kept the one-month implied lease rate for gold at over two percent. With such a substantial annualized return at
even half these rates, those who are selling their physical gold to purchase other types of investments should investigate the possibility of lending
to short-selling speculators. Once the price rises, you can also have great fun putting the squeeze on them to make delivery.

On the New York Stock Exchange there were 290 new highs and 15 new lows, with 1764 stocks advancing and 1038 stocks declining. The index
put-call ratio was a neutral 1.23.

COMEX gold warehouse stocks climbed by 7,748 ounces to 865,961 ounces.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 23:59
cherokee @hello-hello----100+MILLION MILES!!!>(@hello-hello----100+MILLION MILES!!!):
scott----

supposing those rocks are pure gold, how much do you
think it would cost to IMPORT them? yes, it is laughable.
please, this calls for histrionics also!!

bill buckler---

did you ever get a response on your letter a regarding the gold lease
rates? are they going up? what is your take on the near term
for these rates?

the recent rash of cat scratching around here reminded me of
a true story regarding cats and rabbits. this is a true story!
i know a farmer down in s. texas that had a fondness for
cats and rabbits. the rabbits, domesticated, were allowed
to run loose on his farm until ready for harvesting. he had
several cats running around also. one summer, he was in the
barn and he saw one of his cats ( he thought ) half hopping, and
half walking. he thought it had been hurt so he caught it.

to his utter amazement, he saw the cat had elongated back
feet, very long ears, and a bobbed tail! ( i swear this is true )
the cat had the teeth of an ungulate. ( grass eater ) he took
the cat to the extension agent who said he had heard of in-breeding
between cats and rabbits, but had never believed the stories.
it was very evident that they had crossbred. a talkshow host of
a major radio station in houston carried this same story, and
the story was verified by some type of biologist. i suggest
we name this critter a cabbit

now, on to the chase----i wonder if cats and rats have cross-bred.
this seems highly probable, as we are graced with one calling
itself hep-cat. a little juxtaposition here, a little cheese there,
and what do you have?

HELL YES, YOU'VE GOT A HEP-RAT-CAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


cherokee!; ) en-route to pleidaes to see if they have anti-hep-rat-cat
serum. back in a flash-----------------


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 23:55
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Scotty : Interesting posts, thanks : )


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 23:53
Ozmandius @ Ozmandia>(@ Ozmandia):
perhaps heaven
is
here


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 23:43
Ozmandius @ Ozmandia>(@ Ozmandia):
floating exchange rates - decades ago
sinking currencies - lost in the throes
golden lifepreserver - ?
only heaven knows


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 23:41
Scotty Aussie gold secrets>(Aussie gold secrets):
Here's an article from the Sydney Morning Herald that details all the secrecy around the Aussie CB gold dump.

http://www.smh.com.au/ns-search/daily/content/970705/business/business6.html?NS-search-set=/33c5a/aaaa0011Oc5ab51&NS-doc-offset=9&


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 23:40
Lurker 777 go gold>(go gold):
Sold my kinebars yesterday for $360.00 oz and got myself a account with Jack Carl's futures. Tomorrow I do my first option trade and it is free. Hmmmm, how about 100 Dec. 410 calls at 10.00 each. Lets see here, that's $1,000.00 for 10,000 oz Hmmm if gold goes to $510.10 by Dec. I net $1,000,000.00!!!!!! Hey if the stock market can do it why not gold. Maybe I should buy 500 contracts. Naa Lets not get greedy, right.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 23:34
Scotty more newpaper clippings>(more newpaper clippings):
Even the Washington Post is philosphical about yesterday's 120 point drop. They call it eight thousanditis!! Over here for donuts!!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1997-07/10/100L-071097-idx.html



Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 23:28
scotty scotty@codenet.net>(scotty@codenet.net):
More Thailand news......since gold is not making much of a mooooove....I thought I'd drop another tidbit of Pacific Rim news on everyone. It seems that even the biggest companies in Thailand are suffering on the recent Baht devaluation. Dunno what it means, but it appears bad news is following bad news....

http://www.asiatimes.com/97/07/11/11079701.html



Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 23:25
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
One thing you must learn about Australians. We say things in jest a lot of the time and usually in my native land we grin and just return fire! Serious people are hated the worst, along with those who think they are better than others. Yes, we all make errors but Fisher gives as good as he takes and for that he is liked!





Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 23:17
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Gold spot 320.75


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 23:16
Roebear @HersheyPaUSA>(@HersheyPaUSA):
Scott: I'm not Austrailian either, but then no one's perfect !: ) ) I enjoy your posts from the other side of the globe. Good night all, 4AM is coming quick here on East Coast.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 23:14
cherokee @why-oh-why>(@why-oh-why):
ok weathercaster---

i believe i recognize your verbage. why, with innocuous
posts, are you reticent to use your real e-mail handle?

no, i have not heard of this device. if it is patented and
available for scrutiny, it probably is comparable to a pop-gun
compared to what the military has.

c'mon out of the closet and at the very least e-mail me, as
you DO have the address. ohw-----------------------






Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 23:05
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Question: So, Mr Fisher, why did the RBA sell gold for 2 billion to get better returns from bonds when the sale knocked off 2 billion of stocks?

Answer: Have you seen those rocks on Mars lately?

HA HA HA HA HA HE HE HE HA HA says it all!


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 23:03
panda @>(@):
Well, well, it looks like the Philippines' are moving to flexible exchange rates. Yes, the whifffffff of currency turmoil is in the air.

Schwabee update -- Well, it seems someone else is unhappy with Schwabee. It seems that a class action suit has been filed against them. Yup, these are interesting times. How did I find out? It was the little piece of paper tucked in with my monthly statement from them. :- ) )

If that isn't a sign of some sort of a top forming, then I don't know what is.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 22:56
Mac for=what@its-worth>(for=what@its-worth):
Something I was told yesterday may be of interest here. There is likely a lot of new demand for gold that is not talked about. Mr. Cole may know when these numbers will start to show up. Last night while getting gas at my local One Stop - I mentioned to the owner ( a young Indian fellow - Asian ) that the drop in gold price was affecting my investments. He replied that it was killing him also - because his parents and all of his relatives were going overboard buying gold because it was now such a bargain. With the large numbers of Indians here in the US now - running many motels and convenience stores - this new demand is probably more than we might imagine. Also, this perception of bargain priced gold is probably worldwide. Maybe Bart could tell us if his sales are up markedly? I don't know when a sharp increase in jewelery and coin sales would be reflected in the shortage numbers - but I think that the manipulators are on a short string so to speak. :- )


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 22:55
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
I really want gold to go up to 460/oz just so RBA and Tim Fisher look like a real bunch of dic.heads.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 22:53
panda @USA>(@USA):
Scott -- 24 year-old screen jockeys with braces, I love it! Guys who know that markets go only one way! In the case of gold, that's down. In the case of stox, that's up. :- ) )

BTW, located on East coast, USA.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 22:52
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
Tortfeasor- I was talkin to this guy today and he had me rollin in the grass laughin. He said that he had lost so much money on those junior gold shares that he had to LIE to his wife to keep from being kicked out.

I'm lookin for some more of that REAL WEALTH Peter Monk was a talkin about.

Looks like the lows might be put in between now and October. Buyin time
iffin anyone issa interested in REAL WEALTH.

One way maybe to do it ride the wave, buy the unhedged majors, then the marginals then the juniors.

Tally Ho


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 22:48
Reporter skylark>(skylark):
The XAU is very strong and is far outperforming bullion which you would expect at a market bottom, bullion refuses to go lower, Germany sells oil instead of gold, and gold is up in HK - yet there is no joy in Kitcoville. The bottom really must be in.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 22:47
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Panda: I don't know if your Australian or not, but as an Australian, nobody listens to Tim Fisher as he usually is full of cr.p and some think has an IQ of bird droppings. The RBA is getting a good serving and Mr Fishers remarks are desperate and laughable.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 22:35
panda @>(@):
I'm sure one version, or another, of this story was already posted here. I just love the description of the 'gold screen jockeys'. :- ) )

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/10/y0023_z00_48.html


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 22:20
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Has Hong Kong been buying gold ? Seems to me that spot price goes up a couple of bob ( 10 cents ) as the markets open...


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 21:58
Japan @ the golden moment>(@ the golden moment):
To all..... We are still buying gold!!! The day of reckoning has come upon these U.S wizards of manipulation.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 21:57
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com):
Sorry, mis-spoke myself. Auric and Reb were talking about Gold lease rates. Just shows you what happens when you read something too fast.
Interesting develpment, though.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 21:52
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com):
Auric ( Jul 10 21:29 ) and Reb: U.S. debt isn't the only yield curve that is flattening. Take a look at 1 month to 1 year Gold lease rates on Bart's page http:///gold.leaserates.html


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 21:49
WeatherCaster U.S. Patent #4,686,605>(U.S. Patent #4,686,605):
Cherokee: ever hear of High-Frequency Active Auroral Research Project? Also known as HAARP. Magnetohydrodynamic generators which produce, according to U.S. Patent Number 4,686,605, one Billion to 100 Billion watts of energy. The patent also states that the ozone layer can be altered.

Imagine - an insider could go long on Heating Oil futures when he knows that the Siberian Express is coming back to the US this winter. He could also go long on Orange Juice futures when he knowns that the supply will be reduced by weather warfare.
Reference:
http://patents.uspto.gov/access/search-num.html and search on 4,686,605

Boy, would I like to read the Evironmental Impact Statement that was done for this project...FYI, the parent company of APTI is ARCO.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 21:48
REB na>(na):
Auric: The yield curve I was referring to was the varying gold lease rates based on length of term. See Bart's tables.

Question for anyone: Are the lease rates shown for the varying terms all annual percentage equivalents?


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 21:37
RT @Byron>(@Byron):
Byron: some time ago ( at least a month ) you were looking for a final 9th wave down in London cash gold. Where are we now


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 21:35
RT @Glenn>(@Glenn):
GLENN: re your 17:23,.....if your feeling a bit confused , just imagine how the rest of us feel!


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 21:29
Auric @home>(@home):

REB @ 21:13--I had somehow overlooked the yield curve. Yes, a flattening yield curve is a good indicator of recession. Maybe we will be entering a period of stagflation.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 21:26
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70hr.gif

PS: For the record, I bought JUST before the July 4th wipe out,
bought after, and I'm still scaling UP.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 21:13
REB na>(na):
Anyone watching the gold lease rates? I am a novice in this area but they look substantially higher than a week or so ago. Also, the yield curve has virtually flattened.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 21:12
Nj German oil>(German oil):
panda : German sale of oil and expected sale of gold reserves is reminescent of the USSR sale of gold reserves prior to its collapse. German socialist economy is just as doomed as the Soviet communist economy was at that time. Sale of hard assets is a futile attempt to postpone the inevitable.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 20:55
Natsue Visiting the US>(Visiting the US):
I am from Japan, and I like gold very much.
I am not sure if I like Hashimoto.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 20:48
panda @>(@):
Germany decides to sell .... oil instead of gold... for now.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/10/y0024_z00_10.html


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 20:41
WDL @prediction>(@prediction):
I missed it guys...earlier in the day...my prediction that the market would tank in the afternoon; however, spoke today with big investor...tells me
he's going to cash...pronto! Says market valuations, in his words, are
insane.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 20:29
vronsky THE INGER LETTER FORECAST - July 9, 1997 Report>(THE INGER LETTER FORECAST - July 9, 1997 Report):
“But a very overdue meaningful correction is on the agenda. After all, stock market here is “ONLY” priced at something like 2.5 times gross world product ( of all nations ) .” SEE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 20:03
Reif Hedging - or not>(Hedging - or not):
So Glenn, are you saying that TVX is not really hedged for the next five years? They have been selling contracts and buying puts ( and probably selling covered calls ) for a long time ( apparently ) so their basis will maintain a profit vis a vis their production costs.

I'm not sure your point here.

Reif


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 20:01
Savage ...Barrick Gold>(...Barrick Gold):
re: Barrick's total unwillingness to support gold. You know, I bet it hasn't occurred to ABX board that MANY of their shareholders also own some junior stocks; as well as physicals and long positions in the paper gold market. Their potential personal gains in mopping up the junior carnage will be at their shareholders expense ( in other equities, futures, options etc ) . Since we're into predictions recently...here is a prediction....MANY seats will change at the next ABX election!


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 19:59
Tortfeasor Joke of the evening>(Joke of the evening):
It looks like Auroelf's prediction about the $270 gold didn't come true today anyway. Stock averages and the metals made some sort of weak move up today, but then we have seen these weak and temporary rallies in the past. The financial world is topsy turvy and those in charge should be summarily shot, hung, or at least put in the stocks for a week or two. Here is my submission for the evening, be it weak as it is.

After hearing a shot, Todd ran next door and found his friend Jason crying. Say, what's wrong? Todd asked. Jason sobbed, I had to shoot my dog. Todd said, My goodness! Was he mad? Jason replied, Well, he wasn't exactly thrilled.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 19:53
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com):
The first support point on the $A gold chart is in - a double bottom at $A 427 on the P&F chart. Please note that the multi-year low for the $A Gold price was $A 428, set on September 17, 1991. The new chart has been updated at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/twogold.html

This is not - repeat NOT - any kind of confirmation that a bottom is in on the $A Gold price. It is merely an indication that a support point has been reached.

People in Australia are giving up looking for work. And, because people who are not looking for work are not classified as being unemployed on the official statistics ( it's a long, boring story having to do with something called the participation rate ) , the official rate is actually down. What's also down, though, is the approval rating of Mr Howard and his governing party.

Because of the concern about unemployment, there is rampant speculation about another RBA interest rate cut. That has spilled over into the market where yesterday ( July 10 ) the Ords bounced back from a 30 point dive intra-day to close down only 1.7. The main stocks leading the recovery were bank stocks, on the back of the interest rate rumours.

The Gold sale by the RBA was one in a series of moves made to lower Aussie rates in a desperate attempt to get people spending, business investing, and economic growth increasing. The political imperative is to get the unemployment rate down.

I will be detailing this in an Op-Ed posted to my website either tomorrow or Sunday ( Australian time ) . Remember, the Gold sale itself was for the purpose of fostering economic growth. The *timing* of the sale announcement is another thing entirely.



Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 19:51
BillD Glen...>(Glen...):
Thank you GLENN....Very Clear and very important!!


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 19:43
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
Gold mining companies and hedging to protect them-selves against lower prices - BULLSHIT!

If Gold goes down for a short amount of time in a V formation then perhaps the mines are protected, BUT if Gold goes down many $$ like it has and does not go back up to soon then the Gold mining companies are NOT protected. After all if the forward sell 2 years ( 24 months ) worth of production like ABX claims then after one month goes by at lower prices they are either going to reduce there hedge by a month ( to 23 months ) or re-establish the hedge at much lower prices. Gold dropped below $380 in Nov96. At first I am going to guess that these companies thought that this was a short term event and did not re-establish there hedges for the first month. Anyway, Golds been down for many months and is at a very low over-all prices. These companies are protected for a while but if they are truly HEDGING they will also be selling as the prices goes UP locking them-selves into lower prices for the future.
I'm not sure if you can follow me here but the point I am tring to make is simply. Hedging can help a company again low prices for a short time but NOT again a major decline that lasts for a long time. We are currently in a major decline that has lasted quite some time and will last for many more months. Even if we did see the bottom ans rally this summer I believe that we could go to new lows later this year. Many people are talking about Gold under $300. I personnally do not believe that Gold will start it's bull market this year but that this capitulation in prices is the last and final thing needed for a true bull market to occure, perhaps next year. Of course I have been saying next year every year for a couple years now, but I do believe very strtongly that Next Year will happen one year. The Gold mining comapnies are going to get the life scared out of them and they will be selling forward for the next 5 years once we see $400 again. Then they will wake up and find Gold at $500 plus and they will be locked into gold at $400.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 19:26
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Previews of Coming Attractions. Showing soon at an economy near you.

Asia Pacific: Bad debt scares keep the
pressure on Tokyo

Originally published: TUESDAY JULY 8 1997

TOKYO fell for the third straight session as the weaker dollar hit leading
exporters and as construction stocks continued to suffer from the
bankruptcy at general contractor Tokai Kogyo, writes Gwen Robinson.

The Nikkei 225 average fell 262.83 to 19,705.17 after moving between
19,678.27 and 19,931.89.

Traders said the market was ready for a rebound after losing more than
500 points in three days. However, with many foreign investors taking a
summer break, any upturn was likely to be limited.

In addition, Friday's collapse of Tokai Kogyo and the unexpectedly large
scale of its bad debts have reminded investors of the persistent financial
problems dogging many companies linked to the speculative bubble
economy era.

Volume shrank from Friday's 300m shares to an estimated 267m. Declines
overwhelmed advances 878 to 207 with 146 unchanged. The Topix index
of all first-section stocks fell 18.07 to 1,497.10 and the capital- weighted
Nikkei 300 was down 3.84 at 289.71.

In London, the ISE-Nikkei 50 index rose 2.51 to 1,580.58.

Investors dumped stocks of companies affected by bad loans, including
general contractors and banks. Aoki, a medium-sized contractor, was the
day's most active issue, falling ¥12 to ¥107 on growing concerns about its
ability to repay debts in spite of the company's statement that it was
proceeding with restructuring.

Among other second-tier contractors, Daisue Construction fell ¥24 to
¥158 and Tada ¥25 to ¥184. Banks fell nearly 2 per cent as a group on
bad debt concerns, regardless of Friday's announcement by the finance
ministry that banks' problem loans had diminished moderately.

Analysts said the market had taken the Tokai Kogyo case as a warning
that many more bad debts had not yet surfaced. Fuji Bank fell ¥50 to
¥1,560, Sumitomo Bank ¥50 to ¥1,770 and Dai-Ichi Kangyo ¥50 to
¥1,450.

Blue-chip exporters were mixed on currency uncertainties. Honda slid
¥110 to ¥3,220, Toyota ¥90 to ¥3,190 and TDK ¥40 to ¥8,400. Nissan,
however, rose ¥10 to ¥847 and Hitachi gained ¥10 to ¥1,270. In Osaka,
the OSE average slid 224.35 to 20,733.41 in volume of 15m shares.



BANGKOK, up 24.6 per cent in the three previous sessions, ran into
profit-taking and the SET index fell 24.06 or 3.7 per cent to 633.03 in
heavy Bt10bn turnover. This sort of thing was always on the cards. We
needed to be checked, said one broker. Worries about foreign exchange
losses seemed to spark the selling.

Since last week's effective devaluation of the baht, there has been
something of a stampede into Thai equities. Foreign funds have been very
active.



Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 19:25
Almandrosian @The_Enterprise>(@The_Enterprise):
Hey, if you guys aren't going to be using this discussion group, can we use it as a Star Trek discussion for a while? Live long and prosper!


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 18:51
cherokee @hal-pc.org>(@hal-pc.org):
hiddious

man, who slaughtered that word? if the gov't operates like
it spells, we are in one hell of a mess!

i believe gold has bottomed also.
here is the rest --
long gold
long soy-oil
long corn
long wheat
long copper
short s&p
short nyse

nothing like crawling out on a limb, with the kitco for lunch
bunch playing with chain-saws!

the garbanzos are inflated beyond recognition, and hopefully
will keep expanding.

strad--

the significant other has promised to bury the hatchet quite
deeply into my cranium if any pictures are sent. will continue
to wrestle with that possibility. when is your next concert
at RICE UNIVERSITY? i'll be there if and when, and i'll introduce
you to my bud, the wind!

cherokee!; ) possible wearer of new types of permanently imbedded
head-gear!


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 18:26
Cmax to Mooney>(to Mooney):
Thanks for the concern, Mooney.
Our quake yesterday afternoon was 6.5 richter, and about 200 died. ( We don't get earthquakes very often here. ) Water and power is back, surprisingly fast. Our buildings are not obviously very well designed for seismic conditions, but things here will never change. One of the large concrete docks at the shipyard came crashing down, taking a few vessels with it. luckily, all of our boats came out unscathed, but one crewman in the engine room heard the quake....they were only 5 miles from the epicenter at the time. To top things off, we have a hurricane 250 miles to the north.
Flux?....nahhhhhh.......


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 18:20
Reif two poster>(two poster):
Sorry about the double post, guys. Not sure how that happened.

Reif


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 18:13
Reif (re: Net Longs)>((re: Net Longs)):
Stadt wrote:
ALL: In reference to the big net long position held by commercials. I was talking to someone today who is in metals
a bit and he suggested that the figure may be somewhat misleading in that a lot of those are hedged positions. If so,
they don't care which way the price goes. Does it make any sense?

Well, your friend probably knows more than me, but here's my take.

Generally speaking, the hedgers ( the commercial futures players ) are short the futures and long the underlying or actual commodity - in this case, it is probably mostly gold producers. In the grains , it's the farmers. They hedge to guarantee a rate of return, regardless of the weather, vagaries of government, whatever.

So, if you read the TVX article, you can see that their profit will be $470 ( give or take ) - minus the cost of production. So why should they care about the price of gold?

Well, let's say I've already sold you the gold in Aug 1998 for $470/ounce. If I can buy it from the Central Banks for $340/ounce today and store it for a year, I make 130 bucks an ounce and I haven't even lifted a shovel. No risk! That leaves that much more in the ground to mine and sell at market or to sell forward later.

Furthermore, if I ( as a producer ) was sure the price was going to drop even further, I'm pretty sure I would wait before I stepped in started buying.

The key here, of course, is we are assuming that the commercials know what they are doing more than the general public knows what it's doing.

This is most often, but not always, the case - witness what happened to coffee this year when the commercials got caught.

Reif


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 18:11
Reif (re: Net Longs)>((re: Net Longs)):
Stadt wrote:
ALL: In reference to the big net long position held by commercials. I was talking to someone today who is in metals
a bit and he suggested that the figure may be somewhat misleading in that a lot of those are hedged positions. If so,
they don't care which way the price goes. Does it make any sense?

Well, your friend probably knows more than me, but here's my take.

Generally speaking, the hedgers ( the commercial futures players ) are short the futures and long the underlying or actual commodity - in this case, it is probably mostly gold producers. In the grains , it's the farmers. They hedge to guarantee a rate of return, regardless of the weather, vagaries of government, whatever.

So, if you read the TVX article, you can see that their profit will be $470 ( give or take ) - minus the cost of production. So why should they care about the price of gold?

Well, let's say I've already sold you the gold in Aug 1998 for $470/ounce. If I can buy it from the Central Banks for $340/ounce today and store it for a year, I make 130 bucks an ounce and I haven't even lifted a shovel. No risk! That leaves that much more in the ground to mine and sell at market or to sell forward later.

Furthermore, if I ( as a producer ) was sure the price was going to drop even further, I'm pretty sure I would wait before I stepped in started buying.

The key here, of course, is we are assuming that the commercials know what they are doing more than the general public knows what it's doing.

This is most often, but not always, the case - witness what happened to coffee this year when the commercials got caught.

Reif


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 18:04
panda @>(@):
6pak -- The name of the tax will be FICA and the investment program will called Social Security, SS for short. :- ) )


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 17:46
6pak Modern Artificial Control @ It Works,eh!>(Modern Artificial Control @ It Works,eh!):
July 10 1997: Federal Reserve Board Appointments

Individual Investment Accounts, Owned by Workers, But, Managed By The
Government

http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Clinton-Fed-Appointments.html


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 17:46
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Dow-Gold Ratio 24.66

31 year high remains 25.06 on July 8, 1997


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 17:38
vronsky North Korea building up for WAR!!!>(North Korea building up for WAR!!!):
BillD & Gunnrunner: In the wee hours a month ago we received an anonymous email which talked about WAR IN KOREA. See ANONYMOUS GURU:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 17:33
EB Russia supplies about 60% of the worlds palladium and 20% of the worlds platinum...>(Russia supplies about 60% of the worlds palladium and 20% of the worlds platinum...):
blah blah blah...isn't it Funny how they ALWAYS end those PGM stories with that same line? It strikes me as funny anyway.

Oh yeah...the RUSSKIES will resume delivery of PL next week. Yeah Right...and those pigs will start flying again...FESS-UP RUSSKIES!!! Do you want some more Levi's?

PL to the moon...again...or Mars!? ok, i don't want to be trite. Because this group is Never trite...

away$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

EB

mars bars - czars bars...hmmmmm


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 17:31
BillD N. Korea>(N. Korea):
Gunrunner...yep, I agree it is old news ( to us here at Kitco ) , but when they start printing it on CNN ... it's time to wonder why ... and what's behind the sudden PUBLIC announcements....time to get everybody all stirred up, huh? wonder if .......


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 17:27
Byron @ Hedging My Bets:>(@ Hedging My Bets:):
To Hedging Experts:

Here is a business news story re: TVX Gold- Hedge Program Update as of June 30, l997.

Now if and when the price of gold rises, is this news story good or bad news

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/97/07/10/tvx_tvx_1.html


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 17:26
Strad Master Big net longs?>(Big net longs?):
ALL: In reference to the big net long position held by commercials. I was talking to someone today who is in metals a bit and he suggested that the figure may be somewhat misleading in that a lot of those are hedged positions. If so, they don't care which way the price goes. Does it make any sense?


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 17:23
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
I'm not sure if I stated this but the trade I listed the other day to buy at 315.70 was for that day only. At this point if the market does get down there I'm not so sure I'll buy. I'm not turning bearish, I'm just alittle confused here. What a directionaless market today was. Very choppy. Silver looks weaker than gold. IF Gold does start down again silver will go down more. If gold does not drop silver may hold.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 17:21
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net):
BillD re: N. Korea...war

Old news but more confirmed intel for the Pentagonals. Check past copies of readily available weapons trade magazines ( to include the Commerce Business Daily announcements ) for the past three years. They claim to want to improve smart weapons from lessons learned during the 'Storm, but in addition ( without coming out and saying it ) they are searching for ways to counter NK weapons and tactics. NK is a wildcard. China still gives them limited assistance but they're concerned NK may screw up their plan for Asia. That part of the world is worth watching.



Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 17:18
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):
To Fellow Chartists:

Here again is an update ( July 8, l997 ) of the S&P500 Chart in Constant ( 1997 ) Dollars with Trend Channel. Period of time is for 1871-1997. ( log scale ) .

Notice how much further the chart line has gone out and above the upper trend channel. ( i.e.- like in 1929 ) But this time it is different. : )

http://www.cpcug.org/user/invest/trend2.gif



Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 17:18
Government thehiddiousagenda.com>(thehiddiousagenda.com):

Well! we finally got rid of that knave, Joe the Camel, soon we may have bigger worries about black market brands,i.e. Chinese and Mexican cigarettes.
Our new and more forceful agenda_____you quess it______. I've been ordered and warned under the espionage laws to keep my mouth shut.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 16:51
Bob @...New York precious metals summary>(@...New York precious metals summary):
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/10/y0023_z00_32.html


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 16:34
BillD N. Korea...war>(N. Korea...war):
Here's something that you do not want to think about...from the CNN web apage.... http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/9707/10/korea/index.html

N. Korea building up for WAR!!!


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 16:31
The Underground Waves Purveyor of the Aboveboard Reports >(Purveyor of the Aboveboard Reports ):

Airwaves____North America, July 10,1997

It has come to our editor's attention that certain anti-gold analyst receive one half their compensation in gold bullion, when the price of gold falls below $320.

This is said to be their IRA bonus. An unnamed source said today, that they feel very secure with this arrangement. by Nuff Said__Cairo Branch.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 16:07
panda @>(@):
Jack -- I think it's called irrational exuberance or tullip mania with a dose of Prozac thrown in. :- ) )

Since when does IBM + GM = INTC ( market caps )


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 16:04
Front Earl:>(Earl:):

Earl my lad... Get that barbeque goin' . This birds done. Turn 'er over and let's start the party ( Even if we're wrong, we'll be so looped we won't give a damn! )


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 16:02
Jack About 30 years of gold>(About 30 years of gold):

RJ: If all gold mining was curtailed today, the 1 billion ounces reputed to be in CB reserves would last nine years. If demand held as in recent past. Demand over the last 4 years ending 1996 has averaged about 3480 tonne ( 112 million annual ounces ) ,

or: 1,000,000,000/112,000,000 = 8.9+years

This is just the math, logic says they will not do it, but today, who needs logic. We have Bob and Bubba.

Ted A. and Andy S. want to keep the public beleiving that the CB's will sell, it behoves their employers profits.

Just for general interest; Microsoft's market value is worth about 5.5 times the total value of annual gold production. Bet, many, many listed companies, have market values greater than AU's annual production value.
Something doesn't add-up?


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 15:48
Donald @Work>(@Work):

Japan's U.S. Treasuries holdings top $300
bln
WASHINGTON ( Nikkei ) - The Japanese government and private
firms held an aggregate $300.5 billion in U.S. Treasuries as of April 30,
shows a U.S. Treasury Department survey. The huge amount mainly
stems from foreign currency reserves acquired during government
dollar-buying operations.

Overseas entities held $1.21 trillion in U.S. Treasuries as of April 30.
The U.K. was the second largest holder at $220.5 billion.

The Japanese government invests most of its foreign reserves ( $219.8
billion as of June ) in U.S. Treasuries, international financial sources say.
That would mean the Japanese private sector holds about $100 billion.

Japan's U.S. Treasury holdings first surpassed $100 billion in 1989 and
topped $200 billion in 1995.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 15:48
Reif Bottom Picking>(Bottom Picking):
Well, since most others here have an opinion, I'll jump in. I think the bottom is IN ( at least for now ) for gold and probably for silver. But I'll be more concrete, so if I'm wrong, I can be verbally filleted in this court of public opinion.

Gold: We'll see 350 before 310. ( I know that isn't too high, but that's as high as I can definitely see. )

Silver: I don't see as clear cut a situation for silver, in fact it may have one more leg down left, but while I'm sticking my neck out, I'll say 470 before 400.

Main reasons: Increasing open interest on huge down move means the commercials are buying gold ( refer to my post a few days ago about manic selling by new shorts versus panic selling by longs ) . However, it is a little more cloudy in silver, because the commercials, even though they are at historically long levels, are still net short. If they were buying really heavy, and the small specs really selling, the open interest should decrease, at least at first. One possible explanation is that a lot of the pros in silver may not necessarily trade enough contracts to make them report as Commercials to the CFTC ( if anyone has any insight on that, I'd sure like to know ) .

Anyway, that's my view. To trade - it may chop around a while, but I think the downside risk in gold especially is pretty small - I think I'd like to see a little break out and a pull back before getting long - but this market may not do that - it may just go, especially if there is some major news.

I think I'm going to buy at least a little yellow at 318 and see what happens.

Reif


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 15:27
Front Strad, Earl, RJ>(Strad, Earl, RJ):

Geez what a day :

apocryphal
complex grammatical conundrum
astounding

Now all we need is gold to stay up! Should of stayed in bed, the wife saw the last post and the lawn still needs a cut! Ah well .....


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 15:19
Strad Master What are kids for?>(What are kids for?):
FRONT: Yours is the perfect solution to a complex grammatical conundrum!


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 15:10
Front Strad:>(Strad:):

Let's put it this way....

If the double negative is right then I've got to cut the lawn ....

If it's wrong, she has to cut the lawn ....

The last time I felt like work, I had to sit down and rest for a bit until the feeling went away.

Now, who do think is going to cut the lawn? My kid of course !!!!

TTFN


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 15:06
Strad Master Double negative?>(Double negative?):
FRONT: Upon reflection it seems to me that Too Tired For Nothin' translates as. I have plenty of energy for everything! Somehow, I suspect that's not what she means?


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 14:55
Front To Tigger:>(To Tigger:):

Actually the TTFN has been referred to by my wife as:

TO TIRED FOR NOTHIN'

Gettin' 2-old here in Cottage Country according to her and Earl and Strad!

TTFN


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 14:51
Front To Strad:(:-)>(To Strad:(:-)):
( :- )
OK I'll go with that one, only problem is, I didn't use it. I used TTFN and he wanted TTNF. Question of typing error? Maybe it was a joke? Question? apocryphal for sure !!!! ( :- )

TTFN


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 14:47
Miro @don't have much faith in how much we save>(@don't have much faith in how much we save):
jw: your comment about avg. us income x no# employed x 10% / 12 = amount
in funds monthly ? makes assumption that average person in US saves 10%
of salary.
That's way out of line. If I remember right it's more in 2% range and not
all of it goes to funds.
Don't forget the US is a nation of borrowers not savers!
10% of salary to 401K does not apply either. Not everybody's got it and
there is a ceiling on contribution ( IRS does not like tax havens ;- ) )


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 14:25
Strad Master TTFN - NF>(TTFN - NF):
FRONT: Whatsa matter with you? TTNF = Ta Ta New Friend! I thought you knew all the official acronyms!


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 14:06
Bob @...TVX Hedge Position at June 30/97>(@...TVX Hedge Position at June 30/97):
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/97/07/10/tvx_tvx_1.html


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 14:01
Tigger @pooh bear>(@pooh bear):
TTFN: ta ta for now


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 13:58
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Satadard & Poors revising Gold Stock Ratings

http://www.newsalert.com/free/story?StoryId=Cm8rEqbWbtLLusda5nW&FQ


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 13:53
Fidelity Update @one PM>(@one PM):
Fidelity Update:
AS OF 1PM EDT,

FSAGX= $18.53 UP .26
FDPMX=$12.66 UP .20


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 13:35
Plaintalker @ pondering:>(@ pondering:):
Steve- Perth-------- Howard& Costello= Abbot & Costello reincarnated?


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 13:15
Front To Bewildered:>(To Bewildered:):

I have no idea what TTNF means!

TTFN


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 13:14
jw dyoung@telapex.com>(dyoung@telapex.com):
Please comment. If stk mkt breaks by 1--2k where will gold be?
avg. us income x no# employed x 10% / 12 = amount in funds monthly ?
what would a reasonable figure be ? thanks


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 13:13
Amnesty @eagles breakfast>(@eagles breakfast):
Taking a punt against the RBA!
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970711/feature/feature1.html
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970711/invest/ivsuper.html


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 13:13
Front To RJ:>(To RJ:):

RJ:

apocryphal .... Thanks for the education. Didn't even know the word existed! Now I know why I love these food fights so much! The words you guys use are astounding ( heard that one from Earl! )

TTFN


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 13:07
Bewildered TTFN>(TTFN):
Front: what does TTNF mean?


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 12:50
Int'l dummy @ westcoast>(@ westcoast):
If CB selling off gold is such a good move , why did the Aussie dollar go from 78c to the current 73c ?


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 12:48
Strad Master Beans@bottom.com>(Beans@bottom.com):
CHEROKEE: Rider of stars and spinner of smoke...Thanks for the info. Much appreciated. Gotta keep better track of that double post warrior, though. Seems he's been fluxing you lately! ( BTW, where's that e-mail photo? )


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 12:48
Front To URIS>(To URIS):

Any answers yet? No? What the hell, guess it's just you, me and Amateur!

TTFN


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 12:34
cherokee @buckled-into-g-suit>(@buckled-into-g-suit):
strad-dude-man--


hey strad-man how's it going? you need to get a lap-top
so you can post, when out 'fiddlin with the boys.

bean oil has made a bottom formation that signals a reversal
of trend. we made a yearly low, and with this bottom formation
it is looking good ( at the moment ) . not only was this a yearly
low, it is a multi-year low!

yearly highs or lows, channels, and history are the mitigating
factors with my analysis. histo-tecnist could aptly describe
it.

play some jefferson starship with papa john creech on fiddle---
dragonfly--now we all fly away---------yes, fly away--------

john lee hooker how about rufus thomas? he taught john lee
all he knows. rufus could shoot holes in ANY blues dude or dudette.
check him out to see who really played the blues! ( if you can find him )

cherokee!; ) rock-n-roller, rider-of-the-starship-for-aeons-upon-aeons--


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 12:29
cherokee @buckled-into-g-suit>(@buckled-into-g-suit):
strad-dude-man--


hey strad-man how's it going? you need to get a lap-top
so you can post, when out 'fiddlin with the boys.

bean oil has made a bottom formation that signals a reversal
of trend. we made a yearly low, and with this bottom formation
it is looking good ( at the moment ) . not only was this a yearly
low, it is a multi-year low!

yearly highs or lows, channels, and history are the mitigating
factors with my analysis. histo-tecnist could aptly describe
it.

play some jefferson starship with papa john creech on fiddle---
dragonfly--now we all fly away---------yes, fly away--------

john lee hooker how about rufus thomas? he taught john lee
all he knows. rufus could shoot holes in ANY blues dude or dudette.
check him out to see who really played the blues! ( if you can find him )

cherokee!; ) rock-n-roller, rider-of-the-starship-for-aeons-upon-aeons--


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 12:10
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Comodities in a world of trouble : Australian Financial Review...

http://www.afr.com.au/content/970710/market/markets4.html


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 12:01
Donald @Work>(@Work):
WDL: I feel the same way. Big selloff this PM but I did't want to say it because that would put the jinx on.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 11:56
cherokee @eagles'-nest>(@eagles'-nest):
patriot @22:50 7-09-97

the url you gave was extra-ordinary! i read for 3 hrs. last
night and was barelay able to stop for some zzzzzzzzz's.
the scenario for the reasons behind the gulf war is more
than believable. this entire web location is excellent,
and MUST be read by all non-sleepwalkers. i've read some
literature propounding the same ideas, but not with such
clarity and forth-right analysis.

russia is definitely playing like the hog-nosed snake. she
is playing like she has died by rolling onto her back and
( supposedly ) exposing her belly.

the russians are still investing billions and billions of
$$$$$$ on a huge under-ground labyrnth to en-sure their
survivability during the next war ( nuclear ) . these are facts.
the russians cannot pay their civil servants, but THEY ARE
preparing for war using over 60% of their budget for these
programs!

thanks for the url------------knowledge is power! i am em-powered, again.

cherokee!; ) on-the-shoulders-of-giants


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 11:56
DONZ ((@?))>(((@?))):
Thanks Steve. If you know Tom Plotts give him a hi for me. I'm U.S.A.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 11:54
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net):
Ahhh,

I KNEW you were out there! Anyone who quotes Buffet is O.K. with me.... To you financial wizards, that's JIMMY.... NOT Warren....

BTW, D-Mark hit a low of 5686 yesterday. After Bundesbank announced that the dollar had recovered enough & that they were monitoring stox, it has jumped as high as 5754 today..!!!.. ( $850 ) . If they do announce gold sales it should really go up ( short term ) . Lots to consider, though... I find the timing interesting. Germany hasn't been real happy with Klintoris lately ( especially after the G-7.499 meeting and the NATO summit ) ...


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 11:39
Bob @...RJ's 30+ yr. gold supply>(@...RJ's 30+ yr. gold supply):
RJ: Would you agree that all the world's vehicles ever manufacturered still exist ? Perhaps you can agree that all cars exist is some form - scrap, recycled, etc. Cars are bought to use for a period and then resold for reuse, scrap or left rotting in fields. Vehicle manufacturers are affected by the used car market - directly by consumer buying attitude between new/used cars and indirectly through the cost of new factor inputs ( alluminum, steel, and plastic ) that contain recycled material.

Similarly, gold is bought for a period of time and eventually is recycled , passed down through the family or lost ( stolen ? ) .

Would you agree that cars have a shorter holding life than gold ?

Would you agree that recycled scrap gold is often listed in statistical disclosures of demand/supply by most reputable analysts ?

Your point that all gold mined exists and therefore available for re-entry into the market is only theoretically true - give or take spoilage and loss.

Gold price has tanked. Jewellry demand ( 70%-85% of gold demand ) is inelastic. Whether gold price increases or drops jewellry demand remains stable within a price range. This is probably because the quantity of gold in most jewellry is not the most significant factor cost in pricing the ornament. ( According to yesterday's Toronto Star, a jeweller was interviewed about the drop in gold price and jewellry costs and he indicated that - for example - a $200 pice of 'gold' jewellry may contain only $18 of gold, the remainder being the cost of labour, selling, admin. taxes, and profit. )

End users do not normally buy cars with the intention of re-selling ( dumping ) it when the price drops. Buyers of jewellry, likewise, are not normally conditioned to dump or smelt their ornamental gold on the market when the gold price tanks. Would you ?

It all boils down to utility characteristics of goods and services that fit into the demand/supply equation.

Bottom Line: Nice try but nobody is concerned about yor 30+ yrs. of supply. They are concerned about supply dumps by CBs. CB gold dumps are the most relevant factor ( fear ) in determining available marketable supply at this time in history. Do you agree ?

Cheers.




Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 11:36
richard badauskas ozpower@msn.com>(ozpower@msn.com):
To milhouse @HK please give me your email address. Am also Australian, escaped the land of Howard and Costello ( should read Abbott and Costello ) have many contacts within Australian mining industry and currently reside in the land of Clinton ( sleaze is more entertaining than high taxes ) . There is a very major gold project developing in North Queensland, is currently totally overlooked by the market. More in keeping with this thread I heard that the Australian govt has screwed up its finances and the sale of gold was akin to hocking your possessions at the pawn broker when in need of cash. Look at the A$, this is the only comedy show around where the entrance fee has dropped sharply recently! must agree they have great beaches, food, wine and fun people, pity about the politicians.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 11:25
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Normandy mining boss speaks out about Australian Reserve Bank
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970711/business/business4.html


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 11:21
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Euro threatens a return to the 80's...
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970711/business/business9.html


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 11:08
DONZ (@?)>((@?)):
What country ( s ) bought Aussi gold or other sources?


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 11:08
RJ Quick shots, no time.>(Quick shots, no time.):


No Mercy @ 07:27 - Believe it or not, I agree with most of what you say. I draw some different conclusions though.

Millhouse @ 06:18 - I agree completely

Jack @ 05:21 - What choice to the funds have? They have too much cash and nowhere else to put it.

Who Cares @ 03:55 - You where partly the reason for my ill mannered outburst, but anyone who has read my posts for long has seen long periods of rationality punctuated by occasional bouts of fever. Life is more fun this way.

Murray @ 01:40 - The 30 year supply is another one of those figures that has been bandied about so much as to become apocryphal. I have read various figures from enough reputable sources to feel comfortable quoting it. I would hazard a guess that if one actually did the math and subtracted total worldwide consumption of gold from worldwide above ground supplies, we would find there is enough gold stockpiled to last several decades. The vast majority of all gold ever mined still exists today. Unlike other industrial metals, gold is primarily mined for accumulation and, as such, worldwide stockpiles has always increased. Each year, there is more gold stockpiled than the year before. I don’t have time to dig up the actual numbers. Perhaps someone else can help, or perhaps you will just dismiss my contentions are baseless.



Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 11:07
Front To Earl:>(To Earl:):

Earl:

Not to disagree, as I know what degrees of certitude you'd like, however, after having hit the ceiling at 7986 and then just over 8000 as a high, the mental 8000 seems to be holding. Sort of like Well we did it, now let's head for cover thinking. With the engulfing pattern, I'd be willing, if today's can't cover 8K, to call it a done deal. What say? Bet the farm ... no ... the wife ... maybe ( :- ) ...! ( now I'm in trouble! )

TTFN


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 11:04
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Gold Mining Outlook

by Steven Jon Kaplan



Andy Smith, a precious metals analyst at the Union Bank of Switzerland, said Monday morning as gold was at $314 per troy
ounce: It would take a Martian to be bullish at this point.

Updated @ 5:30 p.m. EDT, Wednesday, July 9, 1997.

COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities continued their rally on Wednesday, while precious metals began the
day sharply lower and ended the day moderately lower. Gold ended the day down $2.10, with silver losing 1.5 cents,
platinum falling $5.40, and palladium declining $9.00. Analysts' and investors' sentiment remains strongly bearish,
with the gold equity put-call ratio continuing to display abnormally high readings. James Cross, the deputy governor
of the South African Reserve Bank, said that his country not only has no plans to sell its gold reserves, there is
even the chance that it will add to its existing level of gold holdings as the foreign exchange portion of its reserves
continues to swell. The South African Reserve Bank wants to maintain between 20%-25% of its total reserves in
gold to provide liquidity for its marketing activity on behalf of local miners.

A few analysts claimed that yesterday's two-dollar rise in gold was caused by speculator short covering. NOT
TRUE! Open interest in COMEX gold futures INCREASED by 4,545 contracts on Tuesday, showing that
commercials are committed to accumulating at these low prices even on days in which gold is rising. This is the very
definition of a market establishing a bottom. It is also quite unusual for speculators to continue to sell heavily short
in a rising market. Based upon the July 1 COMEX traders' commitments indicating 70.7 thousand net long
commercial contracts, as well as the increase in open interest since then of 21.8 thousand contracts, commercials
were net long 92.5 thousand contracts as of the close on Tuesday, July 8, 1997, by far an all-time record. Those of
you who claim that gold is just a commodity should answer this question: would you go short or long ANY
commodity with nearly one hundred thousand net long commercial contracts!

On the New York Stock Exchange there were 352 new highs and 23 new lows, with 1141 stocks advancing and 1710
stocks declining. The index put-call ratio was a moderately pessimistic 1.65.

COMEX gold warehouse stocks fell by 23,534 ounces to 858,213 ounces.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 10:52
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
YOUNGMAN: As a senior member of the Liberal Party in Western Australia, I can assure you that PM John Howard is definitely not in the higher IQ bracket. Both he & Costello take their marching order from the Fed Reserve & the US Govt virtually all the time, except on rare trading issues. However, on monetary policy, they haven't got the brains to do what they do, unless the CIA & Feds tell them. Let's face it, it seems Denmark & Belgium are in a similar boat to Australia.
BTW, the level of dissatisfaction WITHIN the Liberal Party in WA has been quite high. That was so well before this little ruckus over gold sales.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 10:51
panda @Lan Man>(@Lan Man):
Lan Man -- It's an apc 650 Pro PNP ( plug 'n Play ) with PowerChute software, version 1.1.1 ( ! )

E-mail here is panda@tipd.analog.com It may work, or it may not. something about contractors getting outside e-mail... ( So keep this a secret and don't tell anyone! Shhh! ) :- ) )


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 10:50
nailz AEROELF and GUNRUNNER>(AEROELF and GUNRUNNER):
Aeroelf.....Anywhere in that range up to 300.......GUNRUNNER...there are some parrotheads on here..Why just last week some of us sang a chorus or two.....


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 10:46
Tortfeasor Ted>(Ted):
Dale & Liz, thanks for the news on Ted. The news on gold via Auroelf is not near so exciting. I won't have my big chunk to invest until August 1 so hopefully by then it will be where I will thank my lucky stars I didn't invest before. Interesting post. My sister's name is Liz and her husband's name is Dale. For a minute there I thought they might have found me lurking around this website and spending valuable time hanging out with the likes of all of you. Have a good day all. I am on my way to a family vacation in the wilds of southern Utah. Homemade root beer and ice cream and a whole lot of things that will expand my horizons and girth. Keeth the faith all.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 10:45
Milhouse Germany's Reserves>(Germany's Reserves):

Bob - no information, just trying to think of the ultimate in bad news for gold. The Germans probably do want to sell at the moment in order to help meet the Maastricht Treaty requirements. However, if they wait a while the EMU entrance requirements will have to be relaxed in order to enable France to participate, thus relieving the need for Germany to sell gold. In the mean time the cloud of further CB sales will continue to hang over this market.

GNFN, Milhouse


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 10:44
Bob @...Mars probe startled by new discovery>(@...Mars probe startled by new discovery):
PASADENA, Calif. ( Heuters ) - The Mars rover carefully sidled up to another newly discovered rock star, nosing close to a boulder nicknamed Yogi that scientists hope will deliver more clues about the Red Planet.
The rock, resembling gold, was named after Yogi the Bear.

Along side the rock was a path marked by what appeared to be human foot prints in sand. The Rover was ordered to follow the path and quickly came upon a mound resembling a fresh turn of dry arrid soil. At the top of the mound was a monolith with an enscription bearing the symbols, RIP Guzman.

Pasendena scientisits, baffled by the new discovery, are still searching for answers.



Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 10:44
WDL @prediction>(@prediction):
THEY can't keep it ( the market ) propped up...Apres moi le deluge!
Predict big down day for DOW again today!


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 10:37
Dale&Liz @Ted>(@Ted):
Tortfeasor--We received a post card from Ted when he was in Maine--seemed to be doing fine. He and K. really liked Swan's Island. On the subject of gold--did you read Auroelf's recent post?


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 10:30
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
EB: Maybe we should all start investing in WINE! I notice that the old Australian Grange Hermitage is selling for about US$12000 a BOTTLE!!
Now THAT is a good 30 year investment! I think the WA Gold miners are imbibing a little bit much at the moment, to drown their sorrows.
Up at the farm we have about 20 acres of winegrapes. We have Chardonnay & Chenin Blanc, both nice light whites. We sell them to Evans & Tate, as well as Houghtons wines. One of our magnates over here, Jack Bendat has recently purchased Goundry's Wines, & is planting another 100 hectares. He is hoping to flood the UK market with up to 200,000 crates a year of wine grapes. Big stuff from this market. Will squeeze some boutique wine makers out from around Margaret River.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 10:30
Bob @...Germany's reserves ?>(@...Germany's reserves ?):
Millhouse: Are you speculating that Germany has sold reserves or have you sourced information and deduced a German gold dump ?



Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 10:29
ark salted@core.brx>(salted@core.brx):
If the big banks are buying brokerage companies, can the
Dow crash be far behind?


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 10:26
ezau swami@sag.nut>(swami@sag.nut):
Posting trouble. Say again, words twice:I'm picking up
what marbles I have left and waiting for the resurrection
and the light. Small rally going on as we speak.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 10:25
REB na>(na):
Milhouse: Maybe the Germans will surprise and announce that they are buying gold. Any CB that sells now is going to look pretty dumb considering that they are selling after the Australians and others have already tanked the price.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 10:17
Bob @...Peter Munk, CEO, ABX speaks and Wall Street listens>(@...Peter Munk, CEO, ABX speaks and Wall Street listens):
I had posted concern over Munk's attitude before a post ( below ) cited that Munk had stated ( in the US financial press ) that the CB selling climax may drive the price down a further $40 - or about $280.

He is trying to drive down the value of weaker gold miners with quality reserves so that he can buy them cheap.

Cheers


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 10:14
Mooney @CMAX>(@CMAX):
CMAX - Good Friend! Just caught your 22:04 of last night. Here we are continuing our sometimes serious, sometimes senseless bickering over the price of Gold and here you are fighting mothernature and almost getting killed. Hows it going? Give us an update and may all be well with you and yours.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 10:02
Milhouse Gold Bottom>(Gold Bottom):

We won't really be sure that gold has bottomed until after the announcement that Germany has sold a large portion of its reserves.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 09:57
Milhouse ABX Forward Sales>(ABX Forward Sales):

To Mooney and Shadow,
I don't know much about Barrick, but it is likely that gold which is being sold into existing forward contracts at the moment was forward sold at least 3 years ago.
Actually, the prices at which ABX has forward sold their gold are not that attractive. Normandy Mining, a company which has a forward sales book of equivalent size to Barricks, will be getting an average of US$60 per ounce more for its gold over the next 3 years. ABX also made a big deal of closing out some forward sales contracts ( 1.5M oz if memory serves me correctly ) last Feb when gold hit 410. That mistake has probably cost them over $100M.

Regards, Milhouse


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 09:37
Mooney @$275-NOT!>(@$275-NOT!):
Psssst - auroelf - Don't tell them that Soros is on my side - O.K.?


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 09:35
Mooney @auroelf>(@auroelf):
auroelf Re: your 9:05 - If that report is true, then I'm lined up against Munk AND RJ - Think I'll go hide under a rock for the interim.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 09:33
Lan Man @Panda 7/9/97 22:32>(@Panda 7/9/97 22:32):
Panda re UPS - Most ups units are connected to Novell or NT servers. Some will connect directly to a repeater, so that you can monitor a remote network closet. In these cases the mfg includes software to configure the ups - IP address, snmp agent and/or NLM. The one that is connected to this pc has LAN capability but this feature is useless since this pc is standalone. It does protect the equipt. from surges comming across the phone line though. I don't even think that Win95 is supported... The APC units at a client came with a diskette and manual etc. Which brand and model do you have? Maybe one of my techs is familiar with your unit. Although it does not look to promising...


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 09:30
Pizza Man @news>(@news):
All Orange Futures Traders:
Medfly has spread to 3 Florida Counties. www.tampatrib.com


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 09:29
Mooney @shadow>(@shadow):
shadow - Re: your 3:52, although I was only in the presence of Mr.Munk but once and therefore can not really speak for him, I would postulate that most of that production was sold forward early LAST year when gold was over $400. ( Seems eons ago, doesn't it? )


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 09:27
Donald @Work>(@Work):
The bond market is reacting differently than before to the employment figures. Instead of seeing the numbers as good for lower interest rates
it seems to have focused on credit quality instead.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 09:12
panda @?>(@?):
Compaq disappoints in earnings, oooppps!


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 09:10
MoreGold @News>(@News):
Nomercy: Even worse, Coke is trading at 42 times 97 EXPECTED earnings.
Gotta drink a lot of this stuff.
Royal Oak closing a mine in Canada due to Low Gold price.
Kinross president is 100% sure Gold has bottomed, but not sure when it will go up.
Microsoft market cap $130 BILLION, GM worlds largest auto maker is only 42 Billion....


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 09:07
jdfjosdhjgo aero go g[out=0er98q3paer wet]0q345>(go g[out=0er98q3paer wet]0q345):
to donald at 1808

rsi is Relative strength index take a look at investors business daily and look at the commodities page ( the section with the graphs )


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 09:05
auroelf forecast>(forecast):
Peter Munk of Barrick Gold is quoted in this morning's Wall Street Journal as seeing another $40 drop in the price of gold on continued central bank worry. That's near my back-of-the-envelope rough guess based on a fibonacci drop from 414, giving a current target of $275 plus or minus $3 before a longterm gold recovery is likely. This is not a wish. This is a possibility. Do any other methods project a figure near 27x?


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 08:48
panda @the winds are blowing>(@the winds are blowing):
The Bundesbank weighs in on stox and the Dollar;

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/10/z0009_69.html


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 08:45
Questions @news>(@news):

Any further news about Robert Rubin resigning? Also, Malachi Martin to be on Art Bell 7/11. Wonder what he will predict this time.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 08:33
Hashomoto @>(@):

Excuse please. What is Parrothead? Is that Bird Brain? hahaha


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 08:17
nova_scotia @seaside>(@seaside):
gunrunner - Your July 9, 23:10

There ARE Parrotheads here. I lurk mostly, but am a CONFIRMED Parrothead.

'Got a Carribbean soul I can barely control, and some Texas hidden here in my heart.'


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 08:14
Donald @Work>(@Work):
NOMERCY: I love your post of 7:27. Coca-Cola has a market cap EQUAL TO ALL THE SHARES IN FRANCE. It reminds me of when Nippon Telephone was worth more than all the real estate in California or some garbage like that. We know what happened to investors in Japan who found no problem with that.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 08:00
panda @>(@):
Talk about a PC Euro! Even the colors are reminiscent of putrefaction.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/10/z0009_57.html


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 07:59
Speed @waking up>(@waking up):
A few more rays of light: gold moving up on the overseas markets. http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/10/z0000_3.html


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 07:56
panda @?>(@?):
Repeat after me, There is no inflation, There is no inflation. Then say, The central banks will take care of it. The central banks will take care of it.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/10/z0009_54.html


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 07:56
Cyclist Comments>(Comments):
Mike Sheller and Cherokee,thanks both for your comments.
I was told that that day will be explosive because of an avalanche of negative energy squares.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 07:52
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.com>(gunrunnr@bsc.com):
EB,

What wine goes with cheeseburgers ( in paradise ) ? BTW, I prefer German whites ( Mosel region, Auslese or Beren Auslese ) . Haven't found any comparable California substitutes yet.

RJ - phone message but no E-mail. Try the alternate I gave you... I tried to post last nite, but couldn't get back on to Kitco...



Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 07:50
Tortfeasor Joke of the morning>(Joke of the morning):
It looks from here that the gold and silver markets have bottomed; but then I said that when gold was at 340/oz. The following is a story which I may have posted before ( if I have excluse me please ) which demonstrates the revenge which we gold people will have on the paper people at some point.

For decades, two heroic statues, one male and one female, faced each other in a city park, until one day an angel came down from heaven. You've been such exemplary statues, he announced to them, That I'm
going to give you a special gift. I'm going to bring you both to life for thirty minutes, in which you can do anything you want. And with a clap of his hands, the angel brought the statues to life.

The two approached each other a bit shyly, but soon dashed for the bushes, from which shortly emerged a good deal of giggling, laughter, and shaking of branches. Fifteen minutes later, the two statues emerged
from the bushes, wide grins on their faces.

You still have fifteen more minutes, said the angel, winking at them. Grinning even more widely the female statue turned to the male statue and said, Great! Only this time you hold the pigeon down and I'll crap on it's head.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 07:27
nomercy RJ...there'll be a meltdown...the Dow>(RJ...there'll be a meltdown...the Dow):
...RJ, look for the Dow to drop 1000-2000 within the next few months. Stock values are at ridiculous levels, ei ) Coca-Cola trading 25 times expected 1999 earnings, and 35 times 1998 earnings. High expectations indeed, the economy is not as hot as the perception created. The US statistical reporting on jobs, is not consistent with those of other countries. They include part-time jobs. Their unemployment is much higher than reported. The economy is being driven by technology, which displaces people. Cable, telephone, banking, software companies are not labour intensive. Yes, their earnings are formidable, at the expense of labour. Debts and defaults are on the increase, as the people are being brainwashed by the constant barrage of how terrific things are.Morale boosters. Optimism is great, spending what you haven't earned and hoping to is not sound strategy. Inflation is not being measured properly. Its being manipulated to fulfil their means. Food costs are the only items which perhaps, their stats are applicable to. Autos, homes, home renovations products enormously more than the stated CPI for the last 10 years. When you start believing you're own lies...troubles lies ahead...the US markets depend on the constant inflows of foreign money. These funds are invested in Indexes ( top companies, ei ) Intel, Microsoft etc ) ...the secondary stocks haven't moved...Allan Greenspan had the right read...he's being handcuffed...he's worried about stocks value...The rich are getting richer...the poorer worse...the gap widening...educational system is inadequate...I've enjoyed your postings and hope you're going to stick around for the next 6-9 months....its fun and entertaining....but hope you dont take your predictions too serious...if you do well...would love to see the shorties dare a little more...we're waiting...


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 07:09
panda @>(@):
What? Me worry about PA/PT deliveries? NAhhhhh!
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/10/z0009_43.html

Might have made a good story. Japan, with their version of Mexican Peso debacle.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/10/z0009_32.html


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 07:00
Auric @>(@):

RJ-I second Goldbug23's sentiments. You have written bearishly about gold recently. Do you still see $500 to $600 gold in the next 2 or 3 years?


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 06:42
WW @New England>(@New England):
Mike Sheller: Re Astrological forecast/ There is more than one type of global war. How about global economic or trade war/ AS CLINTON threatened and HASHI returned the compliment.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 06:22
Goldbug 23 @Omega>(@Omega):
RJ: Keep posting, I always want to know what people who disagree with me are saying and why. I don't claim to know everything or to be able to forecast the future with any great success. Been wrong too often. Just glad whenever I have been right, and call it luck, altho their is something to the saying we make our own luck. Most of us here I suspect own gold as an insurance policy and are diversified. Some are traders of course and that is a game with only the most astute surviving forever. Keep it coming, I for one appreciate your thots.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 06:21
Mike Sheller @reveille>(@reveille):
PATRIOT ( 22:50 ) : The astrological chart you point out on spirit of truth site is a horoscope for the day 07/04/1997. It shows where the Sun, Moon, planets and zodiacal house cusps all were on that day. Don't you just hate it when a computer program runs out a 'scope in that format. Looks like a train wreck. It's confusing even to me. Least J. Adams coulda done was to scan a round wheel. The author is illustrating what he calls a 6 planet alignment and is comparing it to the 7 planet alignment at the '87 top, and other mutiple planet alignments at other significant market peaks. The work is very nice, but don't you think there are too many financial astrologers already? I find it interesting that he concludes that the bearish blow to the stockmarket this time around will come from global war. There are some very dramatic and cautionary astrological indications concerning the US and Israel in the year 2000. However we may not have to wait that long. At this angle of acceleration, it is doubtful the stockmarket overall can continue rising until then.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 06:18
Milhouse Gold = Money>(Gold = Money):

Gold is money, it always has been and it probably always will be. To anyone who has some small understanding of monetary history this proposition is so obvious as to be axiomatic. What we have been witnessing in recent years is simply a shift in the ownership of that portion of the above ground stock of gold which is held for monetary purposes. The shift is from governments to private hands, and from the West to the East. The monetary demand for gold in the Middle East and Asia has risen relentlessly and the percentage of the above ground stock which is held by Central Banks has decreased.

The results of the above :

1. An accentuation of the shift of economic power to Asia

2. Significant depreciation of the national currencies which have lost their gold backing ( it is no coincidence that two of the weakest currencies in Europe are those of Belgium and the Netherlands )

3. Increasing impotence of Central Banks to exert any influence on exchange rates

The price of gold may drop further before it goes up, but this has got nothing to do with whether or not gold is money.

Regards, Milhouse


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 06:03
Tim @home>(@home):
Aurator: Re Your Jul 8 @ 22:08: You are most welcome. Glad you made it safely home !


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 05:58
Milhouse @ Prices/Inflation>(@ Prices/Inflation):

BW - re your 12:19 post on 8 July :

For money supply to increase, something has to be monetised. Only certain assets are allowed to be monetised by US financial institutions.

If oil prices increase, this in itself cannot create an increase in the quantity of dollars. Epstein's argument is that increasing oil prices result in an increase in the operating costs of business, which leads to higher debt levels and consequently higher money supply as the debt is monetised.

In reality, at any given time the supply and demand for all commodities is changing and prices need to change to balance the equation. However, these price changes ( up and down ) should not result in an increase in the money supply beyond an amount which is equal to the rate of real economic growth.

In one of his many contradictions Epstein actually manages to hit on one of the real causes of increasing money supply : the monetisation of debt to pay for the cancerous growth of government.

During the last 12 months we've seen stagnant oil and food prices, and yet the total quantity of dollars has increased by 8% ( another counter to Epstein's case ) . The reason is that the extra dollars have fuelled the inflation of financial assets or found a home overseas courtesy of the trade deficit.

I agree with you that the Fed will try to avoid inflation at all costs. IMHO, those who believe we will see deflation during the next couple of years are under-estimating the ability of the Fed and the US Govt to keep this thing going a bit longer via a massive injection of liquidity.

Regards, Milhouse


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 05:50
Japan 101 We have set up our Model>(We have set up our Model):

Our model which relates to the effect of selling a portion of our US Government Bonds and using our existing foreign currency reserves to purchase gold is now in operation.
This model includes possible loss of valued trading partners as well as forming new trade relations.
Keep an eye peeled on gold transactions related to the London hub.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 05:47
Schippi schippi@ Geocities.com>(schippi@ Geocities.com):
RJ ( Diehard Goldbugs ) :
Don't know about the rest of the Kitco players, but I don't look
at it as I'm buying Gold, But rather I'm getting out of paper. This Old
Horse, does not and will not TRUST paper backed up by HOT AIR.
My read of history, tells me that EVERY country that played this
paper game, went broke. By the way I have a draw full of Million
Dollar German Marks, guess what they are worth. Enjoy your posts,
Best Regards, Schippi


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 05:29
Milhouse @HK>(@HK):

John Disney ( 9/7 01:02 ) and Youngman ( 9/7 22:26 ) :

I second your comments on the Aust Govt. I invest heavily in Aust gold mining companies only because I understand them and have ready access to information on these companies. If I had greater knowledge of the RSA companies I would probably sell all my Aust investments and search for value in South Africa because there is far greater political risk in Aust. In addition to the sale of 60% of official gold reserves, the Native Title legislation in Aust is a complete shambles and has dramatically increased the costs and the risks of mining gold. Also, a few month's ago the West Aust govt ( WA has the highest gold production of the Aust states ) announced that it would start imposing a tax on every ounce of gold which was produced within that state.

I am an Aust who has moved to HK to get away from the Aust govt and its draconian tax system.

BTW, apparently the RSA Central Bank has announced that it may add gold to its reserves.

Regards, Milhouse


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 05:21
Jack RJ>(RJ):

RJ: I'm sure that the main reasons why gold is going down is because, the financial markets___Stocks, Bonds and Currencies are so hot.
That the many foreigner's who sent their money into dollars -that is those who were early - are a major cause for this irrational mess; the mutual fund managers are just tagging with the trend.
That the whole thing can bust wide open is the other side of the coin. If that occurs, they deserve what's coming to them.
While you are both a realist and I believe a commodity broker________I think that you dislike them as much as we do.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 05:16
Bas @Oz>(@Oz):
Out of the 300 tons of gold sold by Australia over the last year, 85% went to South Korea. Report in West Australian newspaper today. Maybe BT is Korean.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 05:12
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70hr.gif


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 04:57
Jack Does anybody know?>(Does anybody know?):

Bob ( 20:10 ) About the 200,000 gold bars that left the New York Fed, do you have an idea of the weight per bar?
I assume that gold bars held for CB's probably weigh 1000 ounces troy. This might explain a good part of the gold loans, that the CB's have made.
As for Andy Smith's $15 billion annually; in interest earnings, that is if the CB's sold, no mention is made about foreign currency or other risks.
I bet if one would calculate the loss in the gold price since 1987 and add in P&I from gold sales and interst from gold loans, that the MR. Smith's argument would fail.
He must be using $35 as his base price to substantiate the reasons for new gold sales. I believe Canada used such reasoning?


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 04:15
EB before night-night>(before night-night):
passing it on...
I find this service helpful to remind me of changes to my favorite sites.
http://www.netmind.com/URL-minder/ It is also good for vacations, moving, etc.

AWAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz........ ( snore )
eb


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 04:04
EB omega man and his rambling>(omega man and his rambling):
Mark 20:21 the other day...short the markets then.
Tortfeaser - $25 million? WHOA! Yen? or US...
Cherokee - KEEP ON KEEPIN' ON! Corn is also gearing...
RJ - more good stuff - PL thoughts? Have you checked out that Johnny Lang cat yet? Up and comer.
KGB - BRING IT ON!
Kuston - July 12th, 10th, yep, I boobooed. The trucks...yes...they are EMPTY. The fat lady will have a bad case of laryngitis from all the screaming at the top of her ample lungs.
Gunrunner - there are Fins to the Left and Fins to the Right, Gold ain't the only game in town. J.B. is poetry. I am not.
and speaking of J.B...the other J.B.
http://www.trade-futures.com/report.html
Optionman - I agree with much what you say about volatility, except for the limited risk part...and being on the wrong side of a thin PL market when writing options. And especially in the days ahead. I guess the upside would be that PL has a daily limit...if that is an upside. Oh hell... I don't know. Good Luck

enough for now. Sorry all.

AWAY

EB...lover of the ( ... )





Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 03:55
who cares? RJ & the Bear :)>(RJ & the Bear :)):


Alas. I fear that *I* am to blame for RJ's outburst. : )

I thought he actually serious about what's going on with gold,
so I e-mailed him some historical dates to research.

He replied with scornful remarks about credit bubble hogwash,
after which I forwarded two documented sources that he could
check, if so desired.

As far as having no real $$ in gold - I have almost $20K of
my personal savings in metals, mostly gold. I've currently lost almost $2K but it doesn't particularly bother me.

Citibank went bust in '93. James Grant shorted it then, and
he was right. In fact, he was *too* right. So right that the
powers that be propped Citibank up in secrecy.

Governments around the world have made promises that can NOT
be kept. Holders of paper promises WILL get screwed over. I
have zero doubt of that because I can add. If it takes another
year, or another five years, I don't really care.

The longer the CBs stall it off, the better for me. When they
finally bone, I'll be ready.



Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 03:52
shadow carson@vivanet.com>(carson@vivanet.com):

On CNBC the CEO of ABX told Mark they were hedged for the next three years on forward gold sales on all production at $450 per ounce. WHO is buying it at this price? Did I dream this or get something wrong?


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 03:23
EB sipping sangiovese '95 Martin Bros. Paso Robles,CA>(sipping sangiovese '95 Martin Bros. Paso Robles,CA):
This is the GOLD of non-mortals and semi-demi grape hounds. And it is VERY CHEAP right now! BUY, BUY, BUY!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh...gold and a good red do have much in common...they both get you pretty TANKED!

Are there any Vino semi-demi's out there? Steve ( Perth ) , I understand that AUS. has been giving the wine world a run for there money. Of course it will be YEARS before they equal a good Central Cal. vino. yuk. yuk.

I know, I know...back to gold...didn't I mention the TANKING?

AWAY...hicup

EB


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 03:01
Reif Innocent (but interested) buy-stander>(Innocent (but interested) buy-stander):
I have to once again use a sports analogy to fit this group. Some say gold is going up - some say, No, you guys are idiots, gold is going way down.

Seems to me I've heard this discussion in a bar before.

This is the year! New England and the AFC are going to kick Green Bay's butts!

Then the two fans procede to have an all out shouting match over which team is better and what is DEFINITELY going to happen.

Like these two in the bar either a ) KNOW what is going to happen or b ) have any influence at all on the outcome, and yet they seem to take it personnally that that SOB would DARE disagree.

As for myself, I like the discussion ( both gold and sports ) but let's try and keep it in perspective. Unless George Soros is using a handle here, very few of us will actually influence the outcome of this game. Indeed, the time frame of the game is up for discussion - next week, month, year?

So, while I realize most everyone here has a personal ( financial ) stake in the price of gold, let's remember that neither me nor anyone else on this forum will substantively affect YOUR outcome - and all this talk, while entertaining AND enlightening, is just that - and nothing personal.

Reif




Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 02:11
GVC @option expiration>(@option expiration):
Check out Harry C's option force tables for gold
http://pages.prodigy.com/option.force/iv-fram0.htm
his work suggests Aug gold options most likely to expire at around 345.
$26 rally in two days?


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 01:58
Hem gold in Sanskrit>(gold in Sanskrit):
Just resumed lurking here since Monday, after a gap of
several months, and found most people as bullish as ever.
They will probably continue to be bullish, all the way to
170. As for me, my long awaited buy point of USD 311/oz
still seems to be elusive. That is a nice round number
in metric units - 10,000/Kg, and may be the reason it
has stopped the slide for now.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 01:43
Larry @las_vegas>(@las_vegas):
Since the gold market crapped out on 7-7-97, I predict that it will rally on 7-11. I learned this investment method from a wise old sage in Las Vegas.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 01:40
Larry 1/2 goldbug>(1/2 goldbug):
RJ... You shouldn't take it so personal and get so worked up when some of us think that gold actually has a slight chance of going up. After all, history has shown that when gold falls this fast in this limited time, and gold stocks and funds have fallen this far ( some 30% in two months ) , there is more than a 50/50 chance that a rally will occur. Actually, gold doesn't have to move much, but XAU and the funds could jump 10-15% without much effort. This has happened several times in the past.



Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 01:40
MURRAY RJ's 30 YEAR STOCKPILE>(RJ's 30 YEAR STOCKPILE):
Dear RJ. Please enlighten this group as to how you calculate your
projected 30 year stockpile. Since you have to know the projected
loss from estimated mine closures, please show us your math expertise
first hand. And since you infer you know these facts, I'll wait up
another 5 minutes or so I might peruse your mathematical logic.


Date: Thu Jul 10 1997 01:25
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
JIN - Feel free to contact me at above address.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 23:25
RJ ZZZZZZZZZZZZ>(ZZZZZZZZZZZZ):
Hey Gunrunner - Did you get my e-mail? Got some sort of gobbledygook confirmation, I'm not sure if it got through?


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 23:21
Poorboys Love that girl>(Love that girl):
Mooney- Just listened to the new Sarah Mclachlan it's called Surfacing, now I know talent comes from God and a Canadian ,I must be in love Sorry still busy to talk but free time around the corner .Happy Trails


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 23:20
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
KGB - Sorry for the delay, but the phone line just started working again, that last post must of did it. BTW, no need to look for that
truck. They think they spotted in in Japan, I think it is empty.




Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 23:20
JIN YOUR E MAIL PLEASE...THANKS>(YOUR E MAIL PLEASE...THANKS):
Rj,
really enjoy your comments and trading style.
Thanks.Would you please send me your e mail?
rgds
jin cssam@pl.jaring.my


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 23:18
RJ Diehard Goldbugs>(Diehard Goldbugs):
Why, in the face of constant disappointment, do so many cling to the belief gold is just around the corner from a major upswing? Will you keep repeating this mantra until it is true? What is wrong with admitting that gold will spend the next year or so in the doldrums. I can only assume one of two things. Either you wouldn’t recognize a bear if it bit you in the ass, or you have no $ riding on all this talk. I tend to believe the latter, for if the former is so, you would have sold your computer into hock long ago. What is so wrong with gold going to $275, $250? Please do not bring up the cost of production. Close all the mines today, and there is a 30 year supply sitting in bank vaults all of the world. When gold hits $300, buy all you can. Continue this strategy until gold turns around. I’m sure you will be the first to proudly show your meager ounces bought at the bottom, leaving unmentioned the vast majority of you ounces bought at much higher. Do your self a favor, give it a rest. If gold makes a bit of a rally, watch it go, leave it be. When gold drops again, wait. You will have plenty of chances to buy it lower. Or continue your endless droning about imminent economic collapse. Why such an enormous investment in convincing others that calamity is at hand? How many years have you been singing that shrill tune? Meanwhile, I’ll continue to treat gold for exactly what it is, a commodity. Look it up.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 23:16
Goldbug23 @Ingot>(@Ingot):
Cheerokee ( sic ) : The balloon will bust when the Mid-east erupts, or China moves on Taiwan, or whatever, or the spike will just turn over from its own weight. But bust it will, sooner or later, that we know.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 23:10
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net):
RJ...Sorry, but JLH should be spelled ZZZZZZZZzzzzzz...... ; )

I still can't believe there aren't any Parrotheads in this group!

O.K., I'll crawl back to my hammock...


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 23:10
Roebear @MrHarrisHELP!!!!!>(@MrHarrisHELP!!!!!):
TO ALL What a response to the poll! I would love to collate all but I did not poll my own schedule; 12+ hour days through Sunday. I read everyone's comments and thank them for their frank assessments. I wish time and the posting problems would have allowed a reply to each. Nevertheless, I believe sharing our positions on this forum allowed each of us a snapshot of reality at an important point in time. We all represent a large portion of the PM market in our little corners of the world. Biased, no doubt, but poignant!
BTW A small moment of time, a days comments condensed into a hour or so of reading and reflection. A moment, win or lose in the markets, I will never forget. You guys ( and gals ) are the best!


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 23:03
Leaner megagold@manchine>(megagold@manchine):
New tech and the company who is forefront in this tech is calibrating
this baby to find GOLD and Base Metals and lots of it, commonly known as THE PROBE. Check out who's using this tech and has been using it since
the U2 and that's not the Band!! http://speclab.cr.usgs.gov/
&/or http://rsd-www.nrl.navy.mil/hydice/ shes gradually coming down
the pipe and news will be out shortly!!



Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 22:56
RJ Ain't nothin' but the blues>(Ain't nothin' but the blues):
Goldbug Omega - JLH = John Lee Hooker, Grand Master of the Blues


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 22:50
panda @slowwwww here>(@slowwwww here):
Good night all. I just can't wait to see how much gold will drop during the over night.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 22:50
Patriot @Mike Sheller Any Help Possible?>(@Mike Sheller Any Help Possible?):
In checking out the Spirit of Truth web page ( http://nw3.nai.net/~virtual/sot/dow8000.htm ) noticed the astrological chart - any idea what it says?


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 22:47
panda @>(@):
There's nothing like a definite maybe. Errr, I mean, ya da palladium vill be dar.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/09/z0009_111.html


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 22:41
panda @>(@):
Numbers, numbers.

Thursday July 10:
( 8:30 a.m. ) Jobless Claims - week ending 07/05

Has anybody seen my palladium from Russia yet?
____________________________________________

Friday July 11:
( 8:30 a.m. ) PPI - June PPI ex. food and energy - June



Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 22:32
panda @>(@):
Lan Man -- It's all paper, supply and demand doesn't matter anymore! Just bytes in a bit bucket.

FWIW column, I got a response from the folks that make the UPS ( uninterruptable power supply ) that I just bought that is supposed to 'talk' to my PC via a serial port using TCP/IP protocol. Well, either the serial link to the UPS works and Netscape doesn't or Netscape works and the UPS link doesn't. The response, Ya, we have that problem too. Do you know a way around it?

Glenn AUAG -- It's not only gold, XAU, COT.... It's everything, I think they call it, 'Dumbing down'. How long did it take for Rome to fall?


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 22:26
youngman insane@Oz.gov.au>(insane@Oz.gov.au):
Australian PM Howard's defense of the Aussie Reserve Bank sale of gold and his bearish comments about au gives this gold bug something to be optimistic about. Both Howard and hi central bank have proven that there is a dearth of above average IQ individuals in Oz gov and finance. These idiots may have savaged their second leading export,wracked havoc with their financial markets and caused a plunge in the $aussie.
If they have proven by their actions that they are fools, then I take solace in the hope that they are dead wrong on gold. LET THE RALLY BEGIN.
p.s. I take this seriously, sice i am heavily invested in Oz mining.
Wouldnt it be sweet revenge if Gold went to $500 per ounce ( US ) and the Aussie gold producers contriuted 25% of their profits to oust this man.
I live here in the USofA BUT I AM INTERESTED IN HEARING FROM DENIZENS OF DOWN UNDER AS TO THEIR OPINIONS.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 22:24
cherokee @out-on-a-limb-----again>(@out-on-a-limb-----again):
the ether is crackling with errant smoke signals.
almost all of the pundits are saying----

these are the best of times. ( styx )

these have been the best of times for the paper-tigers.
yes, there is no doubt. look at the charts. almost vertical
to the nth degree. is this a natural occurance? look at nature.
does anything fore-go the pendulum? CAN anything avoid change? change
can be delayed, but only at an enormous premium.
nothing can stop the pendulum from in-exorably righting any, and all
imbalances. it can only be delayed. what will the repercussions be?
everything will be amplified.

fellow goldbugs, be assured, we are on the right side of the fence!
the pain and loss of investment capital will be healed with a salve
of financial security we could never have dreamed of! we will rule
the roost. having been trod on for so long, we shall not trod, we
shall stomp holes in the paper-tigers and their taskmasters.

our day is at hand--arise and celebrate the righting of a wrong----

gold back in control, as history has shown it has always been.

such energy! wow----i mean how, kemosabe.

cherokee!; ) rider of the wave of life, surfer of the ether, and
bud to the mud---AND hoarder of gold and silver for the betterment
of mankind.




Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 22:19
nailz @ROTTEN CONNECTION>(@ROTTEN CONNECTION):
ALL.....Can't get decent phone line connection tonight....Anybody else


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 22:18
Lan Man To: BillD (Japan...trade troubles with US): >(To: BillD (Japan...trade troubles with US): ):
About 4 months or so ago I went out pricing a Mitsubishi 3000GT - figuring that with a very weak yen that a bargain could be picked up. Lo and behold, the salesman at the dealership stated that they don't change the price of their cars just because of some currency thing. No I asked? After all, the value of the yen has dropped in value by 50% in just 2 years. My US$ should be able to purchase 50% more, correct? He mumbled something about getting a life.

So, is the dealership and/or the mfg pocketing the difference or what? Where is this so called increased purchasing power that I'm supposed to have...



Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 22:16
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust):
RJ: What does JLH mean, excuse my ignorance. With the commercials buying like crazy and the shorts shorting like crazy when will the squeez start? Never? I don't believe it! Like the poem!


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 22:08
aurator @ Home again>(@ Home again):
TIM @ Lawlibrary, your Jul 01 14:42. Many thanks for reply to my question concerning Comex' power to declare Market emergency.

Please accept my apologies for not thanking you before. I have been in transit and now back in the Antipodes and have not managed to access Kitco for some days.

Also note that the Net seems to be very slow recently, perhaps the millions who are looking at the Martian landscape are responsible.



Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 22:07
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home):
Cmax: Watch out for those aftershocks.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 22:04
Cmax @Venezuela>(@Venezuela):
I guess we ran into some of Cherokees' flux and doom..... earthquake epicenter 30 miles away at Richter 6.5. Lots of buildings fell ( thank god not ours, on the ninth floor of an 18 story highrise ) . Electricity just came back on about 10 minutes ago. We'll see what happened when the dust clears tomorrow.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 22:02
panda @>(@):
ET -- Nice chart.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 21:55
panda @?>(@?):
Bob @20:10 --You posted the story before I did! Now, the question is this;

...“According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York -- where gold is stored for some 50 to 60 central banks other than the U.S., the number of gold bars in its vault has dropped to about 700,000 today from 900,000 10 years ago.”

Where did the gold go? It's the same question I seem to be asking myself all the time lately. Who is accumulating it? Martians? All of this worthless yellow junk must be going somewhere, right?



Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 21:54
RJ Gold Blues>(Gold Blues):
I am soooooooooooo short. Gold to $300. Let it go to $335, good! I’ll sell it into a black hole. Goldbugs leave you emotions out of it, gold will continue its grim slide into disfavor and ill repute. Some are talking of using there gold for fishing lures; it sure shines a lot, and boy does it sink. I traded all my personal gold today for a John Lee Hooker CD and a half pack of gum. I do have some guilt about taking advantage of such a trade, but I ran into one of those sad fellows whose eyes grow large at the sight of gold. Screw him, he will soon lean that JLH gets you through times of low gold better than low gold gets you through times of no JLH.

Gold Owners Blues - simple 12 bar blues. Add your own riffs:

OOOOOHHH, I woke up this mornin’
Had an achein’ in my head.
When I woke up this mornin’
All my gold was dead.
Now I’m a poor man
All my money gone away.
Oh my life was swimmin’ fine
Till’ I woke up today.

Ya’ know my mama always tol’ me
Boy beware what’s shinin’ bright
Yes my mama always tol’ me
Keep yo’ wallet close an’ tight
But I never heard my mama
Don’t know where I’ll sleep tonight.

Blahblahblahblah….etc……


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 21:53
ET @channel97>(@channel97):
ALL:

I have just created this long term chart of the Dow Jones Industrials and have discovered a very interesting fact.

As you all can see the 1985/87 channel when extended into the future is just now intersecting the 1995/97 channel. The light blue line is the upper channel boundary ( yellow in the 1995/97 time frame, grey the bottom of the channel, the red line the top of the channel throw-over, purple the bottom of the 1987 correction.

If I'm right we may be running into a bit of resistance soon, if not an outright top. Look at the 1995/97 time frame. Right now we are in a channel throw-over just like in 1987. Not only that but we have also entered into the 1985/87 channel extension.

What does it all mean? Honestly, I don't know ( I'm not Nostradamus ) but I'm sure we are running into some kind of focal point resistance. Unfortunately my database does not go back far enough to correlate the pre-1929 period. Perhaps someone out there can look into this.

I also had a look at the 1970-1980+ period for gold and the channel extension seems to work quit well on that chart as well ( sorry I don't have a screen dump of that, only on papyrus ) . There was a bit of congestion at the channel intersection too, but in the case of gold the price spiked briefly beyond it ( the blow-off phase ) but crashed right back to the channel extension.

Any thoughts on my interpretation by anyone of you jedi masters?!



Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 21:51
Reporter skylark>(skylark):
EBN has gold up, dollar down across the board and global bonds down. A beginning of a sea change in direction?


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 21:35
Dave jdr72144@aol.com>(jdr72144@aol.com):

Glenn -

Usually, when spot price crosses futures, it can be a preliminary signal of a trend change. Is that a confirmed cross-over you found in silver? This could be the start of something new..............



Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 21:20
KGB @in Hiding>(@in Hiding):
COMRADE KUSTON: VAT! PLATINUM TRUK NOT ARRIVED! Must be problem caused by Midnight Sun melted permafrost on Glorious Peoples Tundra Highvay #1. Please privide Vesa Kard # for heliocpter fuel and vill search begin. ( Be sure to include the expiration date. )


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 20:46
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MIKE SHELLER: Elections declared void? Absolutely, positively NO. Articles of Impeachment would be the legal and proper way to respond to such an event. The response of the markets would be extremely negative.

KUSTON: I have been involved in gold coins for a long time. More than 30 years. Double Eagles 1849-1906 have always comanded a premium over spot. St Gaudens 1907-1933 an even greater premium. The premium fluctuates with spot, but is always there.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 20:35
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
KGB - I'm sorry. I didn't mean to associate you with such a scumbag as
US West. I was referring to your old cold-war image of course, now
we know better. By the way - if you could hold on to some that pretty
white metal for another few weeks it would be appricated.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 20:31
Japan @ the golden moment >(@ the golden moment ):
To All : The news will be delayed , we are buying.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 20:30
Mike Sheller hmmmmm>(hmmmmm):
CYCLIST ( & other astro-nauts ) I did find a mention I made in THE ASTROLOGICAL INVESTOR prediction post that was as follows: ( Concerning Iran ) 'Watch late July for clues when Mars conjuncts Iran's Pluto at 19 Libra ( this could be explosive ) . Sort of jibes with Cherokee's take on bad vibes from the middle east. Another interesting demonstration of how astrology really works ( subtle, lads, subtle ) is the following from the same post: Re BillClinton - That ol' devil Mars lines up with his natal Mars/Neptune conjunction at 6 Libra the first week of July. Now I would point out here that China's SUN is at 7 Libra, right alongside Clinton's Mars/Neptune combo a scant degree away. In astrology, this is almost an exact conjunction. The first week of July has seen a NEW facet of the campaign finance scandal emerge - a concerted, choreographed effort by China to influence the US elections. How much did Clinton know about this, and how complicit was he? The investigation is focussing on Congressional level activity, but can the executive be far behind? Does any Kitcoite think there could be a potential danger for Clinton that the elections will be deemed illegal, improper, and void? Is this an extreme possibility, or what? Any thoughts? While certainly in no way admissable in court, to an astrologer this configuration practically shouts Clinton in bed with China!


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 20:30
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
I spent the afternoon driving around Scotsdale - I visited the local
gold company ( T.EMC ) and stopped into a few coin dealers. The biggest
news I could find was that no one is selling coins in Scotsdale. Also
that Platinum has been backordered for 2 weeks and their is none in
the stores. One more thing - MS64 double eagles are asking $675!!!
fine double eagles are $425. I guess no one in Scotsdale knows the
price of gold fell in the last month.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 20:28
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Front: I don't think I would bet the farm on that today's engulfing bar. It needs a couple of more days to build confidence in it. There was a 'beaut' 11 trading days ago - late June. It resolved to the upside. Given additional bars like last week March of '94, it might be time to call Rydex Ursa. ..... Additionally, it would only indicate a trend change. Not necessarily a move down. In short it needs more confirmation. T'would be nice though, if it develops into something more ominous. ..... We have paid our dues. It's now time to scare the crap out of the yuppie dippers.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 20:15
KGB @in hiding>(@in hiding):
Comrade Kuston: Ve haf your name noted.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 20:10
Bob @...more contrary indicators>(@...more contrary indicators):
Another inflation obituary favouring govt paper: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/09/y0023_z00_41.html


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 20:06
Bassy Tantalo yu115016@yorku.ca>(yu115016@yorku.ca):
GEORGE COLE: I missed the rational you used to predict the end of the bull market in August. I think the bull will snap about a month after the capital gains ( CG ) tax reduction in the US is passed and bonafide. I think you will see a big sell off in equities and investors will then turn to gold in droves. ( I HOPE!!! ) I don't buy in to the notion that investors will actually buy more stock because of a CG tax reduction. With the increase in wealth generated from the sell off in shares, inflation will also take off. What do you guys think?


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 20:02
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
Bart: I sure hope your ISP has figured a way around US West otherwise
nothing will help. US West - if I didn't know better I would think
the communists ran the place. The laughing stock of the telecomm industry.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 19:56
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
There is a valid reason why silver closed below the spot price but I'm not sure why. It would be nice to know but don't think it is a leading indicator of any kind.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 19:55
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie):
Opening Bell has some interesting comments on Gold @
http://206.84.40.155/open.html


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 19:53
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
Please do not read this if you have a weak heart or other medical conditions. When I was on the floor about one month ago I was talking to another trader who had only been on the floor about two weeks. I commented on the XAU and he said What's the XAU. At first I looked at him like he had a hole in his head and green slim coming out but I excused the comment as he was new. Today I was talking to a floor trader who has been trading gold on the floor for at least two years about wheather gold was going to continue it's slide or was it over, and I mentioned the COT report and how the commercials were really long. He said No I haven't seen it, how long are they?. Again I started looking at him like he had a hole in his head with green slim coming out, but excused it because it was delayed this week and maybe he looks at it in barrons on the weekend which will have the report this coming weekend. So I said Yes they ( The commercials ) are net long about 70,000 contracts. And he said Is that alot? what's the average? This time there was no excuse for him. He really did have a hole in his head and there really was green slim coming out. How can you be a trader who only trades Gold and who's sole livelyhood depends on trading gold and not know these's things? I was looking at this weeks COT report as soon as it can out. After this decline we had it was a must. Most of the people on the floor are idiots and anyone in this group who wants to be a trader but doesn't think they are good enought please think again. Most of the people in this group know way more than most people on COMEX abut Gold.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 19:50
Reify @sitcom.co.il>(@sitcom.co.il):
GLENN AUAG, or anyone-
Noticed spot gold's close lower than futures, as usual, however the opposite was true for silver- what's the significance?
CHEROKEE-Jokes too, what a talented guy. Keep it up!


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 19:47
Mike Sheller @ephemeris>(@ephemeris):
CYCLIST: I don't know offhand why July 28th will be special to the markets astrologically. Whoever said that would have to give me the configurations they were going by for me to see how I interpreted same. I DID find, in THE ASTROLOGICAL INVESTOR of May 5 ( I think ) at Gold -Eagle, that July would be hot. Lots of potentials. But I don't remember offhand anything about July 28th. Here's an opportunity for everyone to rush over to Gold-Eagle NOW and print out my predictions column 2 postings ago. Then, when I'm wrong, everyone can pan me and I'll take it, I promise. If I'm right, I'll shout obnoxiously as is the custom in recent days. Howz that? I got Saudi Arabia right on the Solstice prediction...now for the rest of 'em!


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 19:41
Speed good news>(good news):
Here's some hope: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/09/ngc_y0023_1.html


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 19:38
vronsky THE INGER LETTER FORECAST - July 9, 1997 Report>(THE INGER LETTER FORECAST - July 9, 1997 Report):
“But a very overdue meaningful correction is on the agenda. After all, stock market here is “ONLY” priced at something like 2.5 times gross world product ( of all nations ) .” SEE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html




Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 19:36
Donald @Home>(@Home):
RLM: Thanks for the Jerry Favors piece. I think he is correct. So do many other respected analysts. That is was gives me the willies. Can there be a time when too many contrarians agree? It certainly feels right... but the market always fools the maximum number of people. I hope that there are more of them than us.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 19:35
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
The low during the over-night access seccion was $316.2 and the low during the day was 317.30 so no-one was filled on my buy at 315.70. Close but no cigar. When I woke up and heared gold called down $4 I was afraid that everyone would get filled and stopped out all in the same breath. But then again, when you try to buy below the market it needs to scare you for you to get filled. It's a tought calls from here. I hate to jump in early and get killed. I shorted the Aug 310 puts. They expire in two days and are $8 out of the money. To me it seems safe. I'm thinking of shorting the Oct 310 puts. I'm not sure yet if I will.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 19:29
Front To EARL :>(To EARL :):

Earl:

Do you see the Engulfing lines Candle Pattern on the DOW 30 today? My work says it's all over! What's yours say?

TTFN


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 19:25
Bart Kitner (Kitco) bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com):
TO ALL: Service seems to have resumed to normal once again. Our ISP is now directly involved in making some changes specific to the needs of our discussion group. This should hopefully resolve some of the problems.

To Lurker77: The best place for gold,silver, and platinum options is ( you guessed it ) at http:///option.gold.html.

To Bill: To be precise 1 troy oz. = 31.10348 grams, so 1 kilo=32.1507 ozs.

To the Newsletter Guy: Thank you for not advertising here.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 19:20
Lurker3 @musings>(@musings):

Try this. President Gore. Or this. President Gingrich. Or this. Gore resigns, new VP named, then takes over after Clinton resigns.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 19:14
Lurker2 @Kitco>(@Kitco):

I am beginning to sense a real sea change going on right now. The hearings in the Senate are starting to look like the real deal. Shades of '73-'74 indeed. Ladies and Gentlemen, may I suggest that you all fasten your seat belts?


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 19:12
RLM Cole's August>(Cole's August):
Favors seems even more emphatic in his latest comments on a possible July top in stocks. Could the gold bottom be far behind

http://www.marketweb.com/commentary/JF0709.HTM


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 19:04
George Cole bull market phasws>(bull market phasws):
Cherokee: I said that I expect the current bull phase to last 4.5 months, half the length of phase 2. And phase 2 lasted half as long as the 18 month phase 1.If the current phase 3 does in fact last 4.5 months, the end will occur in August.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 19:03
Icicle man This_is_just_a_spike, I tell ya!>(This_is_just_a_spike, I tell ya!):
Drip drip drip


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 18:55
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Dow-Gold Ratio 24.59 at the NY close. Second day of profit. 25.06 remains the 31 year high.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 18:53
BillD Japan...trade troubles with US>(Japan...trade troubles with US):
panda...check this one out http://cnnfn.com/hotstories/economy/wires/9707/09/japan_wg/

Yen to get stronger!!


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 18:25
panda @>(@):
Tight labor markets reported by Minneapolis Fed;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/09/z0000_z00_23.html

Well, look at this! It’s not just gold that isn’t being well ‘received’. It seems no one wants TIPs either!
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/09/z0000_z00_26.html

Short term liquidity squeeze in Mexico... No problem!
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/09/z0009_103.html

Euro? Euro! :- ) ) :- ) )
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/09/z0006_1.html


The currencies seem to be gyrating, again. Hmmmm.

As for Rubin leaving Treasury, not unless the Carrier Clintock is sinking! Now that would be the MOTHER of all SELL signals! :- ) )


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 18:25
Option Man dead serious>(dead serious):
Yes EB, I am seriuos. Selling naked calls leaves you no more exposed than shorting the contract. In fact selling naked calls that are $50 out of the money leaves you in a much much less risky situation than if you were to short the contracts. The exposure is the same - you should make a distinction between the two.

It is strictly a volatility play. PL can go up, down, or sideways - I don't care. Volatility will go down , always has, always will. And when it does the option premium will go with it. I have been doing this succesfully for years. Selling volatility works.

When there's none I do nothing. I have given up on trying to guess direction since I'm wrong half of the time.I tend to take profits quickly and let the losses ride and so being right 50% of time is hardly good enough.

The gold-platinum spread play is similar because I'm not trying to guess direction either. The gold/plat ratio fluctuates and right now it happens to be historically wide. It will narrow , I'm just placing my bets on that it'll happen before October. I feel the elements are in place for it to happen, and I don't see a huge downside risk either.

The downside of this strategy is that when there's no volatility and the ratios are normal there's nothing for me to trade. Patience is the key.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 18:23
Donald @Home>(@Home):
BILL BUCKLER: The correct time of that report was more like 17:48 NY time. I posted it a few minutes after the report.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 18:14
Donald @Home>(@Home):
BILL BUCKLER: Reported as a rumor on CNBC at 6pm NY time. They cite it as a possible reason for the stock decline today.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 18:11
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com):
Donald ( Jul 9 17:50 ) Rubin resigning? Rumour circulating where and propagated by whom?


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 18:08
Donald @Home>(@Home):
FLKDG: What is an rsi?


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 18:05
WW @New England>(@New England):
Latest update from overnite phone desk of commodity broker. Gold up .40/ silver up .5 and S&P now down 1.00/ as of 6:04 EDT.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 18:04
panda @>(@):
nomercy -- Notice how the political/religious aspects are immediately brought up! My suspicions were confirmed in the Reuters story that I posted a while ago. My question is, and still remains, where is the gold and why the massive efforts to flush it all out? I think the why is becoming clearer now. ( It's only money, real money that is. )

George S. Cole -- Scape goat? NOOOO! :- ) )
Who would ever do that! ( He said, dripping with sarcasim ) MY, those hearings look familiar, don't they? Kinda 1970ish... :- ) )


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 18:03
LURKER 777 @ down but not out>(@ down but not out):
ALL- does anyone know a site for gold & silver option quotes? Thank you!


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 18:00
fkldj ter90t]08954 tk]qepigqejt jkldjfglfjkljfgl'ajg'algn'alng>(jkldjfglfjkljfgl'ajg'algn'alng):
Has anyone noticed that clinton's popularity and gold's price movements are oposites?


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 17:56
wondering w@w>(w@w):
I was told that golds 10% rsi had been this low only two other times in history is this true?


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 17:54
cherokee @a-chop-here-a-chop-there-everywhere-a-chop-chop>(@a-chop-here-a-chop-there-everywhere-a-chop-chop):
gmt newsletter---

thanks for reposting your same message over and over!
short-term memory goes right after eye-sight.

put it in barts' url bank, and quit polluting the ether!!!!


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 17:50
Donald @Home>(@Home):
ALL: Rumor circulating that Robert Rubin will resign from Treasury post.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 17:50
cherokee @city-of-clouds>(@city-of-clouds):
george cole--

your latest commentary at vronskys' site is appreciated.

the duration of the last 2 bull phases as you noted:

1st phase lasted 18 months.

2nd phase lasted 9 months.

this 3rd phase has lasted 4.5 months.

is there a correlation between the 3 times frames?
there is a consistent 50% decline, time-wise,
relative to each consecutive bull phase.

is this the method you are using to predict aug as the
end of the current phase? this could hardly be considered
coincidental if the 3rd phase ends at 4.5 months.
if this time-line is accurate, THE END should occur in nov-dec '97?









Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 17:47
NEWSLETTER A HREF=------------->(------------):
Advertising message deleted yet again.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 17:44
Maynard liverpool street, london>(liverpool street, london):
JACK: Whose to say Japan has not been buying gold on the QT right along?


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 17:41
Strad Master Defalation@inflation.com>(Defalation@inflation.com):
STEVE PUETZ: Profound thanks for taking the time to e-mail me. I really appreciate your response. I have no problem selling an object of value in the face of a looming deflation. My experience with these markets, though, ( which admittidely is short ) is that so many have been calling for defaltion, inflation, collapse, bursting bubbles, etc. for so long without any sign of these things coming to pass. Logic dictates that what goes up MUST eventually come down but I have already paid dearly for mistakes wrought by following doom-'n-gloom scenarios that haven't panned out. I've read all the current crop of dreadful predictors. The works of Rees-Mogg and Davidson, Prechter, Weiss, North, Guarino, etc. are all highly entertaining ( in a perverse sort of way ) but so far they have all been consistently and completely WRONG! Of course, I understand the analogy that if the weather report calls for rain at 1 PM and if by 4 it still hasn't started, yet the sky is darkening more and more - one doesn't then go out without an umbrella. Nevertheless, I'm sure you can relate to my trepidation. Even here on this forum there is no consensus of opinion as to the inflation/deflation scenario. I post this here because I think your answer and the comments of others might be helpful to all. Thanks again for your kind response.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 17:28
Jack My warped way of thinking>(My warped way of thinking):

George S. Cole: My warped way of thinking say's, if I am to be made a scapegoat; then provide them with a real good reason.
Like buying about 2000 tonnes gold ( for about $20 billion ) on the LBMA. This is well within Japan's capability.
This would surely wake Bob, Allen and Bubba up.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 17:20
Strad Master Flux & bean oil>(Flux & bean oil):
CHEROKEE: Would you be so good as to explain the reasons you think bean oil is going up. I'm curious as to what indicators you are using. Thanks.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 17:16
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MIRO: Bogle of Vanguard, THE most respected fund manager in the business, was on CNBC today, replayed several times, telling people, including his own customers, that they were making a mistake buying Index type funds. He invented the index fund. In the absence of any other news you have to think that some people listened. Also, tomorrow Compaq Computer is going to report earnings. It has been up 25 points in two weeks, the expectations are enormous. Mabye some cautious people think the market will be disappointed with Compaq. A third point, copper is down 6% over two days. Some people think that copper is a leading indicator of the economy. They call it the metal with a PhD in economics. Old pros take it seriously.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 17:14
WW @New England>(@New England):
NJ: No url I obtained it over the old fashioned telephone.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 17:10
NJ Overnight desk>(Overnight desk):
WW : Can you please post the url for the overnight desk.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 17:09
cherokee @this is a good one!>(@this is a good one!):
very few books offer more than what one pays for them.

here is a book ( if you can find it ) that is worth its'
weight in gold. ( it's heavy! )

How to Acheive Personal and Financial Privacy In A Public Age

authored by Mark Nestmann

it is an incredible compendium of what the gov't has covertly
managed to take from its' electorate. law after law has been
enacted to deprive YOU of YOUR assets. this book exposes their
ploys, and the LEGAL ways to avoid giving your hard earned dollars
to elected officials for THEIR agendas. these agendas, are THEIR
pork projects for their constituents. proof positive that they
can bring home the bacon.[sic] the pork also helps to get them
re-elected.

this is a must read for most of the regulars on kitco.
time waits for no man.

i submit this for one reason. knowledge is power.
become powerful, and prepare----- with knowledge.

cherokee!; ) chopper-of-the-copper-bulls, sender and receiver
of smoke signals, and friend of the wind whilst warping
around the globe for the good of almost all non-sleepwalkers.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 17:07
George Cole scapegoats>(scapegoats):
In the latest issue of the Privateer Captain Bill opines that the Clinton Administration may be moving to set up a foreign scapegoat to blame when the bubble bursts. Probably Japan, China, or both. Makes a lot of sense to me. After all if out booming markets ever tank it is got to be someone else's fault. Right!

The bursting of the bubble will change many things in addition to ending the gold bear. It probably will trigger greatly increased friction among the g-7; the U.S and Japan espcially..


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 17:04
WW @New England>(@New England):
Per over night desk gold up .60/ silver unch and S&P continuing its recovery up .20.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 16:25
JIN WGC>(WGC):
WGC NEWS.....
http://www.gold.org/Wgc/Gfl/Gf970709.htm
..RGDS ...
P/S SO MUCH TROUBLES AROUND SOUTH EAST ASIA NOW,THAILAND,CAMBODIA,PHILIPINE,..NEXT...MYANMAR?


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 16:15
cherokee @just-joking>(@just-joking):
ok tort, here's some competition----

the horse and the chicken

a horse and a chicken are playing in a meadow.
the horse falls into a mud-hole and is sinking.

he calls to the chicken to go and get the farmer to help
pull him to safety. the chicken runs to the farm but
the farmer can't be found. so he drives the farmers' mercedes
back to the mud hole and ties some rope around the bumper.
he then throws the other end of the rope to his friend the horse,
and drives the car forward saving him from sinking.

a few days later the chicken and the horse were playing in
the meadow again, and the chicken fell into the mud-hole. the chicken yelled to the horse to go and get some help from the farmer.
the horse said i think i can stand over the hole. so he stretched
over the width of the hole and said, grab for my thingy and pull
yourself up. and the chicken did, and pulled himself up.

the moral of the story: if you are hung like a horse, you don't
need a mercedes to pick-up chicks!


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 16:14
nomercy it'll be up to the people>(it'll be up to the people):
Panda...re: Nazi Gold, interesting interview, in Business Week
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/july/nf70708b.htm


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 15:39
Pizza Man @ DowngoestheDOW>(@ DowngoestheDOW):
Roebear: I am keeping my long position in gold, and having some fun shorting the S&P.
Beginners luck has always worked for me so GOLD is going up!
Will Clinton escape scandals forever?


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 15:17
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Uris -- Can't raise rates. Would crash the market. Got to keep 'pushing on the string' or very serious deflation sets in here also. No options left for the Feds. It'll happen anyway. Just consider that everything they are doing is to keep the paper game going as long as possible. They'll manipulate everthing in their power to keep it going. Just be watchful of the day when it stops!


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 15:04
paths paths@ibm.net>(paths@ibm.net):
From a fundamental viewpoint: ( todays FP ) Even in 1996, the supply-demand balance had been net sales of 239 tonnes by central banks. These sales, plus scrap recoveries of 644 tonnes, plus significantly reduced forward
hedging amounting to 80 tonnes, helped keep total world supply of 3,309 tonnes ahead of total fabrication demand for 3,290 tonnes...

So the CB selling has only been about 7 % of demand. Even if one assumes a worst case scenario, that gold is completely demonetized, with a permanent drop in demand of 25-30 % due to no more banking use or coin sales, the current price drop will more than account for this as half of the worlds gold mine production has now become uneconomic, with an average production cost of 317$/oz. Gold has to be at the bottom, at most it can only go a little lower on sentiment, irrational pscyology, short selling etc., but even in the near term has to rebound to at least these current levels. I think that it is significant that the 1985 low was 286, based on fundamentals that was about as low as it could have been expected to go. If gold goes any lower at all from here it has to be a temporary short term excess. It would be nice to see the producers act together to force a bit of a short squeeze to stop this phenomena of paper pushing the price of gold down.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 15:01
cherokee @ok-who-did-it?>(@ok-who-did-it?):
who called copper as a good short 2 weeks ago?

soybean oil is fixing to blast-off, time to get on-board.



Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 14:55
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
Bart : I think your server is run by the same guys that run my ISP here
in Phoenix. They both go down at the same time.

EB: July 12? Last week it was July 10. I was expecting a day or two
before the ship date to be a tough ride - but I never expected this. My
PA is down 26 pts, PL is down 25 pts. Who would of ever thought that
these white metals would trade here without the Russian shipping a steady
supply? I don't think the fat lady sung yet.

Is D.A. still on vacation? What a time to leave.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 14:49
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net):
Miro--How about...U.S. Savings Bonds? They are adjusted for inflation in that they yield 85% of the five year note. And sure, its government paper but it is a Family, little time saver vehicle and I would suspect that things would have to get real bad before the guys and gals in DC would think about screwing the working class savers.

By the way, who says you have to have your money invested in something at all times. I recall the stories of the First Matress Bank during the last depression.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 14:49
Bob @...Gold Demand: contrary views between producers and analysts>(@...Gold Demand: contrary views between producers and analysts):
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/09/gldfy_y00_2.html

Sometimes you wonder whether there is a conspiracy against gold. Now the anlaysts are saying the producers are pulling the wool over their eyes on demand statistics.

If you read the key points in the article on world supply and last years demand you have to wonder what the analysts are worried about. We already know that Eastern and Asian jewellry supply is also used as a store of wealth and therefore available to re-enter the market - indeed all jewellry is theoretically available for resale ( ask Russell Oliver of Toronto fame ) . The propaganda against gold is so bad that an analyst identified in the article said he was looking at the recent Cambodian crisis for possible gold supply re-entry into the market ! I appreciate the Cambodians have a good supply of gold invested in temple icons and jewellry but is is that material in relation to the big picture ? I doubt it.

A related article in todays Toronto Star indicated that gold jewellry prices would not drop due to price declines in the gold market since, as one knowledgeable jeweller noted, the gold in a $200 piece of jewellry amounts to only $18 - the bulk of the price is made up of fabrication, labour, administration, profits and taxes.

Perhaps a good deal of jewellry from the East and Asia already has re-entered the market - and this would be a good rationale for the recent three month carnage we witnessed in gold price - does anyone else have a more logical ( non-speculative ) reason for the recent decline in gold price outside of CB dumps ?

Cheers.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 14:48
Miro @no fear .. just hand it over>(@no fear .. just hand it over):
look at money flowing into funds in the last couple of days.
That would explain yesterday’s jump but how about today? http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/09/y0004_y00_10.html


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 14:46
Donald @Work>(@Work):
MIRO: In a deflation you need to invest in the thing that is going down the least...seriously. I hope that is gold, silver and cash ( or near cash ) . Perhaps said a better way, you invest in purchasing power for the future.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 14:26
Strad Master Kitco...Kitco...Wherefore art thou, Kitco?>(Kitco...Kitco...Wherefore art thou, Kitco?):
BART: Please check into getting a new ISP. Kitco is the only site in my experience that has so many problems. Of course, nothing in life is free, so we all should be grateful and be willing to pay the price of an occasional breakdown. Nevertheless being without access to Kitco for a day is really trying on the psyche. Us metals bugs need all the support we can get right now! Thanks.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 14:21
Strad Master Upsndowns@insanity.com>(Upsndowns@insanity.com):
RJ: It would seem to me that silver and gold will eventually come up to fill in the downside gap of Monday, at which point the commercialls will short it way down again. The other possibility I see might be an island reversal but that seems less likely since the trend is so clearly down. Since you have your finger also on pulse of the fundamentals, what is your opinion of either scenario? Anyone else care to comment? Thanks.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 14:08
2weeks Chartism_101>(Chartism_101):
Today's USA Today gold chart looks like Mars horizon:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/gold.htm
I'm in for 25M.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 13:46
vronsky STEVE PUETZ LETTER (July 7, 1997)>(STEVE PUETZ LETTER (July 7, 1997)):
Warning sounds in London, Economic Mess in France, Recessionary Trend in Australia & Financial Crisis in Far-East, ALL BODE ILL FOR U.S. Stocks. Looming Crash heralds Gold & Silver bull market:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 13:44
Miro @where the money go?>(@where the money go?):
OK, stocks down ( except for NASDAQ ) , metals down, looks like everything
goes down. Where does money go? :-o


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 13:36
Uris @DFW Airport>(@DFW Airport):
The most thought provoking post that I have read on this site was
from Amateur, 09:10 yesterday July 8. I would like to see some
comments from Cole,Puetz, RJ and vronsky on this. If any of this
about FED cooperation with Japan on rigging gold prices is even
half truth, then what are we doing here ? We can do nothing but lose.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 13:34
Donald @Work>(@Work):
STEVE-PERTH: Copper down another 2.5% right now.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 13:22
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Are we having fun yet? The way I view the current gold formation is that if it breaks below current lows, we'll be seeing near 304 Aug basis, Monday A:M. Also possible to see Sep silver closer to 4.0. Gold will have to break above 324 Aug to begin defining an upward move.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 13:20
lurkee @two weeks>(@two weeks):
2 weeks: Tortfeasor said 25M


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 13:16
MoreGold @AUSI>(@AUSI):
Steve Perth 12:19 : Great article, thats what the industry needs, kick around some of the politicos. They are extremly short sighted by these actions, which will eventually lead to serious financial turmoil.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 13:10
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Lsteve: Try the Scaramouche restaurant. Bring money, Visit in the Skydome, CN tower and the Senator at night for jazz.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 13:08
REb na>(na):
Roebear: The scenario of gold moving inversely to Dow has played out well for the last year or so. Expect it to reverse soon. I am lightening up on non-gold stuff and looking for more precious metal stocks to buy.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 13:01
ezau swami@sag.dum>(swami@sag.dum):
WheeeOOppps...I hit an air pocket...must be wind sheer
most all cargo dumpted and praying for an updraft. Am
clawing for the sheer cliffs...will staunch the bleeding now.
Have retreated and will fight another day.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 13:00
2weeks In_the_wrong_forum>(In_the_wrong_forum):
Last night someone here said he's planning to move $25M into a certain fund. Is that $25,000,000? I mean, how big are you guys, anyway? Could you use a chauffeur? Or does $25M mean $25K in US talk?


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 12:45
vronsky IS GOLD STILL A STORE OF VALUE?>(IS GOLD STILL A STORE OF VALUE?):
International market pundit Milhouse questions common-sense of Australia’s CB selling 2/3s of gold reserves at historically low prices. He foresees higher inflation & money supply - see Guest Guru Milhouse:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 12:43
BillInOregon Onthebeach@Hawaii>(Onthebeach@Hawaii):
Tortfeaser, where is Ted? I hope mama did not take his computer away from him. I sure miss his posts. That was a good joke ( big john ) . This is our last day on the beach in Hawaii, going home tommorow. Got to get ready for the visit from the grand-kids.

imho japan & china have been told if you want to sell into the USA, you WILL buy our notes & bonds. That is why President Clinton can chide the Premier of Japan and get away with it.

Hello Reify


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 12:23
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
B.B. Fisher: Your comments, yesterday, regarding brokerage house recommendations and inventory clearance were much appreciated. They should be repeated more frequently. ..... All too often we get caught in the spin, without looking for the folks what pulled the string - and why.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 12:22
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Selling forward saves ass....for some Australian Gold Mining Co's
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970710/invest/invest6.html


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 12:19
EB Conspiricies & Tigers & Bears...oh MY!>(Conspiricies & Tigers & Bears...oh MY!):
This is the land of OZ...

Now what did I miss? Oh yeah...gold is tanking. Hmmmmmmmmmm. Let's wait this out or short the market. Gold at $300 seems quite plausible. I,for one, will be ready for gold to rebound as soon as my GCQ7 opt.'s expire - WORTHLESS! ( this week ) Roebear: I'm still waiting on the sidelines for gold. I have added slightly to my PL. RUSSKIES are said to deliver JULY 12 NOT!!!!!!!!

This brings me to another point. OPTIONMAN 19:59 - Are you serious Selling PL calls...NAKED The only great opportunity you will see is the one to put your house up for sale. Your b ) scenario is flawed as well - IMWO,FWIW,IYGAF...AWAY!

EB


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 12:19
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Gutnick calls on Reserve Bank of Australia to reverse decision on Gold
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970710/invest/invest5.html
Gutnick dares PM John Howard to visit Kalgoorlie. My colleague who works
at Kalgoorlie said one of his mining clients just cancelled an order for
a large piece of mining equipment. It will flow right through. It will
reduce the profits somewhat to Caterpillar ( USA ) with their parts
business.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 12:18
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Gutnick calls on Reserve Bank of Australia to reverse decision on Gold
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970710/invest/invest5.html
Gutnick dares PM John Howard to visit Kalgoorlie. My colleague who works
at Kalgoorlie said one of his mining clients just cancelled an order for
a large piece of mining equipment. It will flow right through. It will
reduce the profits somewhat to Caterpillar ( USA ) with their parts
business.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 12:15
Bob A to Roebear>(to Roebear):
Sorry to say I bought in April and sold only a small amount of SWC since then. I then bot ECO. I'm still holding for the long haul. I will buy more SWC, maybe


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 12:13
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Thailand turns to Japan for foreign loans bailout. Mexico scenario not ruled out.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970710/world/world1.html


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 12:08
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
From an industry point of view, Australian Treasurer Peter Costello has done to Gold what he did to the Superannuation ( 401k ) industry, stuffed it up, with total & absolute confusion to go with it!!!
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970710/news/news4.html


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 12:04
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Precursor to a depression Commodities in trouble....
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970710/market/markets4.html


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 11:56
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Yep, we're cranking the midnight oil again...
Gold shares up a bit today in Australia
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970710/business/business2.html
I still think the price is going to keep going down. Bob M is right.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 11:50
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
I too have been unable to connect into Kitco for past 24 hrs.
I suspect it may be because of the following Internet Mars Mania
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970710/pageone/pageone4.html
Imagine how the Net will melt when the Dow drops back to 800.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 11:50
Donald @Work>(@Work):
ROEBEAR: For your poll. I added 25% to my Benham Gold fund on D-Day ( Drop-Day ) Sold nothing.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 11:45
cherokee @smoke-signaler>(@smoke-signaler):
cyclist---

july 27 is a muslim holy day. there have been predictions
of an attack on us soil by muslim extremists on one of their
holy days. there are many permutations to this scenatio.

go to stan deyos' web page and read the urgent news sections
for pertinent info.

arab-israeli warfare?

read the us house of represenatives report dated 12-10-96.
it will blow your mind that this is expected, AND overdue!

go to http://www.jer1.co.il/media/arutz7/sax.htm

an exogenic event? flux? chaos? not to worry, they are planning
a BIG party that will bring all the world a little closer---
through conflict.

!; ) scanner-of-the-skies, driver-of-the-ssm.



Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 11:41
Donald @Work>(@Work):
CHEROKEE: Yesterday there were two important Japanese stories. Can't find them for you today. 7 Japanese banks ( unidentified ) sold their Eurotunnel Bonds to Euro and US institutions at 40-45% of face value. Big losses.
Second story about 14% increase in government insured mortgage defaults in June. Up from another 14% increase in May


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 11:39
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
PandA - Please do not taunt or anger the Dow. It will only disappoint
you if you think it is going down any time soon. The Dow climbed 100
points yesterday. Give it a break.

Dow to 10,000 by August 15. Gold to threetwo.five


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 11:30
Private_1st_Class_Gold_Platoon @the_front>(@the_front):
Morphine! Medic!! Morphine!!!


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 11:30
bb fisher reinventing money@government.direct>(reinventing money@government.direct):
this may seem peripheral at best to the gold discussion we all enjoy on this forum but i suggest it is fundamantal to understanding what is happening in the metals markets...rather in the 'perception' of the metals markets.
over here in the UK the 'new labour' government is going to, in the words of al gore, reinvent government to make it more responsive to its citizens and up to date in its use of technology. the tune labour is humming is called citizen direct. cute isn't it. kinda catchy, sounds very hip and doesn't have any of the centralised bureacratic drudge one normally thinks of when the word government is uttered. the plan not so different from the one in the states is to have citizens view their ( i love that usage of the familiar ) government as one would view a business service provider. got that?

welfare state government wants y'all to be their 'customer'. trouble is, an involutary taxpayer is not a customer. if the perception really takes hold in the minds of the public that government is a business and they are its customers then in the words of john perry barlow ( net visonary ) on the net everything is either local or global, but nothing is national.

do you think in al gores and 'new labour's' rush to reinvent government they will become so bold as to suggest to 'their customers' the NET will enable people
to live where they like, but shop around among world governments comparing tax rates, quality and range of services and security, regard for privacy, and the friendliness of the staff, BEFORE applying for the citizenship of their choice.

for the motivated you can now, for the rest, sooner and easier than you might imagine!

this at heart is what the philosophical turmoil in the
gold market is all about. government is using all its fading ( and it is fading fast ) power holding on to its monopoly over your freedom of choice.

perhaps the first sensible move governments could make would be to reverse rapidly the last few decades of unpleasant centralisation rather than futilely trying to accelerate that trend.





Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 11:22
hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh>(hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh):
The current gold mrkt has the same feeling ( s ) as the Nat gas did in the early 1990's; even the fundamentals are the same. That is, demand being greater than supply for years and dropping prices.

REgards
A gas producer and driller


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 11:22
panda @dumb.question>(@dumb.question):
So why does the Dow have a problem rallying when da bondzzzz are doing so well


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 11:17
cherokee @here-we-go----up>(@here-we-go----up):
japanese buy over 1 billion worth of bonds today as
reported by cnbc.



Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 11:17
nailz AGGRESSIVE ?>(AGGRESSIVE ?):
ROEBEAR.....Would you say this is aggressive ...HEH.... HEH.....


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 11:15
nailz POLL... MORE FOR ROEBEAR..... >(POLL... MORE FOR ROEBEAR..... ):
ROEBEAR......I will add stocks, options on metals and options on stocks within the next weeks or so....Will also buy options on XAU at around 80 if it gets there right away. Will continue to add physicals and will go to the futures when I think the worm is about to turn or has turned.....Did you see the recommendation Glenn made on gold ? That is very similar to what I will be doing.....Will give it a little more room than Glenn did and will have about 2/3 silver and 1/3 gold in futures.......


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 10:58
JIN AND THIS AS WELL.......>(AND THIS AS WELL.......):
ALSO THIS......
http://www.canoe.com/FP/jul9_goldsliden.html
......BYE.....


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 10:54
JIN CNN NEWS 8/JULY>(CNN NEWS 8/JULY):
read this from cnn news,
http://cnnfn.com/markets/9707/08/intv_gold/index.htm
happy trading....


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 10:54
nailz POLL FOR ROEBEAR.......>(POLL FOR ROEBEAR.......):
ROEBEAR.....Was very heavy into slave labor when your poll was called.....My actions....Holding all physicals and stocks...Adding to physicals daily and raising cash daily from sale of other items....Some will go into physicals and some will go to leverage and I for one will be bottom fishing....We are just not there yet, but it is not too far away.....I look for gold below 300 by just a few dollars and silver to whipsaw below 4.......I WILL BE READY !!!!!!!!


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 10:52
LSteve @numb>(@numb):
Hey All,
I'm still holding my Gold stocks, RYO and ECO. If Gold gets down below 310 I'm going to buy more physical. Whether I make money or lose it all I gotta feeling this is going to be one story I'll be telling my grandkids someday. BTW, going to Toronto this afternoon on business. Will be there till Friday noon when I head back to Kansas City. I know there are quite a few Canadians here, so does anyone have any restaurant recomendations, or anything else worth seeing. Never been there before. Good Luck to all.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 10:41
vronsky THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)>(THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)):
“Why has the U.S. - fountainhead of antigold sentiment - NOT SOLD any of its gold while encouraging its allies to sell” - Cole’s Market Insights poignant question:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 10:40
Cyclist apology>(apology):
Mike Sheller: sorry for misspelling your name.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 10:37
Cyclist special@day?>(special@day?):
Mike Shiller:I have been told that July 28th is going to be a special day
astrologically speaking.Could you elaborate what significance,in your
opinion,it has to the market.Thanks


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 10:36
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Organ: Stocks and commodities can only go up, down or stay the same. Once a trend is established contrarians say it will go the other way. Since gold has been going down for 17 years more or less then it is easy to suggest it will go up and often it does if only for a short period of time. Today being a contrarian seems to mean that you believe gold is going up --just like the last 17 years. So contrarians have been correct occasionally for a short time and a sometimes large profit if they get the leverage right. When gold does actually turn around at the bottom all investors and traders will have been contrarians and will have been right.



Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 10:33
Donald @Work>(@Work):
BASSY TANTALO: Figures I have for 1996 are 588 tons sold by Central Banks and 349 Tons purchased by other Central Banks.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 10:25
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
...and the slide continues..hang on to your hats, the worst is yet to come...


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 10:23
vronsky DAILY NEWS FROM 6 CONTINENTS>(DAILY NEWS FROM 6 CONTINENTS):
All the News Fit to Print - and then some. If it isn’t reported in our Daily News section, it AIN’T happened yet! From USA, Europe, South Africa, Asia, Australia & South America:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/daily_news.html



Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 10:18
Bassy Tantalo yu115016@yorku.ca>(yu115016@yorku.ca):
We hear much about the threat of continued central banks selling their gold reserves, but when they do, there is no mention of who's doing the buying. So, hho's buying up the gold? Is it the small guy on the corner block?


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 10:15
NJ august gold>(august gold):
For accurate upto the minute information try http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/chart?symbols=gcq7&time_period=1-minute%20Bars&bars=600&newstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 10:12
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Having trouble getting Kitco to load this AM. The problem I have with the proponents of a rise in silver is that all the arguments for such a rise today can be found in books and newsletters 15-20 years ago. The major difference is the that digital cmaeras are here now and not just on the way. What is true for personal cameras is of course true for all photo equipment. I have lost track- but the demand for silver seems to have exceeded supply for a decade or more. Does anyone have long term suply - demand figures.

I like the Hunts ketsup but not their soup.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 10:09
RJ From last night>(From last night):
Milhouse - Nobody last Thursday expected 4.25 silver Monday. Nobody. I think the commercials will buy in the low 4s. With new gold shorts to cover the downside, I feel good about silver at least filling the gap. I have averaged my 4.60 silver down to 4.35. With another nickel, I’ll have profits. If 4.00 - 4.15 is in the cards, gold will probably flirt with 300 - 305. Either way, I’ll be in the money. This market is for the stout of heart. My less speculative clients will sit this one out. Its my job to call a buy or sell, remember my advise about layering and leaving yourself an out. My trades are less risky today than they were last week.

Mooney - Its tough to debate with some who quotes Dolly Parton. You pulled out the big guns.

Qrgan @ 12:14 - A contrarian would disagree, a contrarian squared would not agree with those would disagree. Count me among the latter.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 09:44
ron jett rjett@mindspring.com>(rjett@mindspring.com):
a long time lurker here - for what it's worth to y'all tomorrow marks the 60th year that SSC ( Sunshine Mining ) has traded on the NYSE. I first began July 10th, 1937 and traded on that day around 19.00 a share.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 08:20
panda @oops!>(@oops!):
but = buy


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 08:13
panda @>(@):
Roebear -- At this point, the Heaven's Gate group is begining to look good! :- ) ) I caught a glimpse of the Wall Street Journal this A.M. In the front page of the markets section, even they are asking, Is it time to but the gold stocks? It's seems that even they are thinking that a wave of 'consolidation' will be taking place in the gold industry.

Regarding your question, I've been painfully adding to positions. I should know better, but some of these stocks... They'll probably get cheaper, BUT, who will take over whom? That is the only upside that I see for now. As for who is doing in gold? At this point, I think the hedge funds have joined the trend. I still think that there is something far larger going here. When it turns, it will be abrupt and amazing in it's speed and price movement. I can't help but feel that the name of the game is to get as many people as is possible, lined up on one side of the market ( equities, futures, etc. ) and then haul out the .50 cal M2 machine gun and take them all out. I just hope that I'm on the 'right' side of the market. I know I'm wrong, so I must be right. Right?


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 08:12
Bob A to BillD>(to BillD):
Dizard, who has a column in Nat. Review likes plat and pall. Most recent issue he says xpect a lot of volatility but he likes SWC a lot.In my opinion where theres smoke theres fire. I'm adding to my SWC position on dips.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 08:01
Bob A at work>(at work):
For what it's worth, Dessauer's mkt letter ( latest ) says to add to PDG position with drop to 15.He is looking for a double about a year out.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 07:58
BillD market positions>(market positions):
FWIW, ICYC ( In case you care ) ...I moved 50% out of the PM market during the past two weeks...out of FSAGX, FDPMX, ECO completely, yet remained in SWC AND SSC ( Plat and Silver ) . I am waiting for a CONFIRMED BULL before I get back into Gold. I thought that Plat was in a bull mode...but I am not so sure as of now. FWIW...


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 07:57
Amnesty @the edge>(@the edge):
When looking for the biggest wave of all, one must look for the lowest
ebb! This wave will not be no baby it will be a mother of a tsunami that
only those on the longest boards will be able to ride. The USA vision
awaits us! Dont believe anything that is delivered with a vested interest!!!!!!!!!!!


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 07:44
Auric $600 in 2000>($600 in 2000):

Roebear-Re your question--Still holding to my gold investments and buying as much as possible at these levels.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 07:44
Milhouse @home>(@home):

6Pak - enjoyed your 8/7 21:52 post. Thanks.

Scotty - Myanmar is not part of Indonesia. It is a separate country formerly known as Burma.

Regards, Milhouse


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 07:29
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn):
This ultra-sickly gold and silver market and its eventual rise from its own ashes reminds me of the following story. By the way, before the story, has anyone heard any word from Ted?

A very small, sickly-looking man was hired as a bartender.
The saloon owner gave him a word of warning: Drop
everything and run for your life if ever you hear that Big John
is on his way to town. The man worked several months
without any problems.

Then one day a cowhand rushed in shouting, Big John is
a'comin', and knocked the small bartender on the floor in his
hurry to get out.

Before the bartender had a chance to recover, a giant of a
man with a black bushy beard rode into the saloon through
the swinging doors on the back of a buffalo, and using a
rattlesnake for a whip. The man tore the doors off their hinges,
knocked over tables, and flung the snake into the corner. He
then took his massive fist and split the bar in half as he asked
or a drink. The bartender nervously pushed a bottle at the
man. He bit off the top of the bottle with his teeth and downed
the contents in one gulp, and turned to leave. Seeing that he
wasn't hurting anyone, the bartender asked the man if he
would like another drink.

I ain't got no time, the man roared. Big John is a'comin' to
town.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 07:28
Donald @Work>(@Work):
DUNDEE: Youe post of 1:37 was well said and righ on in my opinion. It is much like the 30's in many respects. Competitive currency devaluations and massive gold shifts in a futile attempt to continue business as usual by the old leaders. It did not work in the 30's and it will not work now.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 01:37
Dundee Dundee@wittsEnd>(Dundee@wittsEnd):
My first post in a while, I enjoy this discussion group immensely - keep up the good work.
As everyone knows, we are living though some very interesting times. The stock market is basically in a vertical mode and excellerating. Commodities are under major pressure if not collapsing.

Like many people on this board, I have been under the incorrect impression that market manipulation and media distortions would not stem the tide of what looked to be a growing wave of inflation ( even though we have waffled between the possible deflation/ inflation senario ) .

Once agian, we stand looking over the abyss in disbelief. How can it be? The biggest debtor/spender chides the biggest creditor/saver for his lack of business acumen. The biggest creditor/saver states that he may want to sell treasuries and buy gold and soon afterward gold drops like a rock and treasuries move up.
I feel very comfortable that a very important situation is being played out, and the outcome is probably known by many. The time is coming closer and the sweat beads are popping out on many foreheads.

It seems to me that 3 or 4 years ago an article appeared that noted that China was looking to back its yaun with gold at some point in the future. I have not heard a whisper about the situation in years. In my travels to Australia it seems as if Japan already owns the Gold coast and for all I know many of its resources and resource rich companies.

The game I see being played out is definitely between the East and West. The change that we are about to experience is most likely is the polar shift of the economic center of the world from NYC and London to Shangai and Toyko. I suspect that gold will be the key in this shift. I believe the final hand is being played out. Of course, this is only my opinion.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 01:02
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
To All

I quote from the local Investec Newsletter.
The Aussie industry is almost certainly uneconomic
at these price levels so it will soon undertake a period
of considerable downsizing. Junior exploration has
almost ceased to exist while the North Americans
retreat from foreign adventures has limited their
effectiveness. This leaves the South Africans.
Analysts in Australia and Canada have always delighted
in noting the HIGH COSTS of the SA Mines. However they
NEGLECTED TO NOTE THAT ON AN EQUIVALENT ACCOUNTING BASIS
their own industry costs have risen to surpass those of
Kloof, Dries, and the other SA Majors. The SA mines have
fat and flexibility. They WILL NOT CLOSE unless the gold
price stays at these levels for years - in short they
are the survivors.

I have been trying to demonstrate for months with
underwhelming success that the costs of the RSA mines
are nowhere near as high as the North American experts
think they are. Moreover I have for an even longer time
been pointing out that IF you are waiting for RSA to
tank or implode or some other such crap to make gold
go up - dont hold your breath.

Also somebody should explain to Mr MunK that gold
was in fashion LONG BEFORE Cleopatra. I feel that
little throw away line is another example, albeit tiny,
of a company that is unbelievably overated.

Hows that for unpopular statements. Also and just
so no one there thinks I speak from misguided RSA
patriotism - I was born in Richmond Va, and I carry
an Aussie passport - That my favorite country- I just
cannot stomach their government nor their taxes. But
they are the world's nicest and funniest people and
have the finest horse racing anywhere.

One final point on statements to the press made by
RSA mine management to the effect that mines will be
closing left and right. Dont believe everything you read
in the newspapers.The industry is in negotiation
with the NUM for a three year deal. They really want
things to look as bad as they can for public consumption.
Moreover, they have never taken much interest in the
beauty contest of who has the lowest cost. Barrick


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 01:00
RJ So sssllloooowwww..........must get through...... feeling weak........can't last must longer.......>(So sssllloooowwww..........must get through...... feeling weak........can't last must longer.......):
Milhouse - Nobody last Thursday expected 4.25 silver Monday. Nobody. I think the commercials will buy in the low 4s. With new gold shorts to cover the downside, I feel good about silver at least filling the gap. I have averaged my 4.60 silver down to 4.35. With another nickel, I’ll have profits. If 4.00 - 4.15 is in the cards, gold will probably flirt with 300 - 305. Either way, I’ll be in the money. This market is for the stout of heart. My less speculative clients will sit this one out. Its my job to call a buy or sell, remember my advise about layering and leaving yourself an out. My trades are less risky today than they were last week.

Mooney - Its tough to debate with some who quotes Dolly Parton. You pulled out the big guns.

Qrgan @ 12:14 - A contrarian would disagree, a contrarian squared would not agree with those would disagree. Count me among the latter.


Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 00:48
Scotty more Asia news....>(more Asia news....):
Ever hear of the country of Myanmar? Well, it's in Indonesia and it's currency -- the kyat -- is in big trouble. I'm tellin' ya, the Pacific rim is going to fall apart first. The first leaks in the dike have started. I posted yesterday about Thailand. Today Myanmar. Once the dust settles in Hong Kong, they too are in for some rough sledding. Anyway, since I know you all are not busy buying and selling these days, check out the lastest in the kyat:

http://www.asiatimes.com/97/07/08/08079701.html



Date: Wed Jul 09 1997 00:08
RJ My two cents>(My two cents):
Glen @ 21:11 - Your trade recommendation has some merit. I think we are more likely to see $300 in that same time period. I admit, it could go either way. Today’s small rally was on very weak short covering, I’m tempted to short tomorrow almost wherever it lands. I would love 3 - 4 up, but I would sell 322. Gold will continue its ride of woe.

Long silver is the perfect companion to the short gold. Silver always has better upside potential than gold, but we are now in the rare market where gold has more downside than silver. If gold goes up, silver will move much faster, if gold goes down, silver will find support sooner that gold. We might even see silver up and gold down at the same time. There is a very serious gap at 4.58 that silver would like to fill.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 23:40
Skinny gold bug @Westcoast>(@Westcoast):
Just paid my grandsons ( 2 ) private school tuition. one is up 12% versus last year, the other is up a modest 5%. No inflation is it? This is the strangest deflationary period I ever saw.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 23:40
Skinny gold bug @Westcoast>(@Westcoast):
Just paid my grandsons ( 2 ) private school tuition. one is up 12% versus last year, the other is up a modest 5%. No inflation is it? This is the strangest deflationary period I ever saw.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 23:28
Front To Shadow>(To Shadow):
Having trouble getting into Kitco tonight so I thought I'd answer
your question via e-mail but your address got rejected so .... GGO is priced in US$ and T.GGO in CDN
of course. Therefore the difference of the 1.35 or what ever the
Cdn and US $ rate is is the varing difference betweent the prices
at any proper time. However, you'll find that there may be days
when Toronto is ahead of US and so the US must catch up next day and visa versa. It'll catch up tomorrow as the US guys will play the spread.
There's a great game played by the US guys only ( since Canadians
can't get GGO on the US exchanges , only TOronto ) . They wait till
there's a difference just like you noted and buy the one that's
out of wack as they know the other one will correct by the next
day. Hope that helps...

TTFN


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 22:26
shadow carson @ vivanet.com>(carson @ vivanet.com):

Can someone please help me? today Getchel Gold GCO. went d
down 1 1/4 onthe AMEX to 30 3/4 It also went up 2.60 to 44.30 on the Toronto exchange. How can this happen?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 22:16
NEWSLETTER ----->(------):
Advertising message deleted


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 22:14
kolorado @calif>(@calif):
Capt KEV: Welcome back. Please cheer us up with your bean tales.
Aussies: Please help me explain your govt's madness. Is Sydney joining the EC? Is your country broke? Is one senior producer trying to break the rest with the govt's help?

Goldbugs: Just to comfort you all, I'm still long ssrif and ABX as well as US World Gold. I hold these because I'm scared to death that my semiconductor, drug, biotek investments will turn. All of us equity longs are scared to sell. We can't afford the taxes. I've been planning to convert all assets to preferreds and REITS and oil but I'm only 1/3 out. I'm frozen in the bull saddle. The market is nuts and we all know it. Especially those that have made a few bucks and can't quit. Ride 'em until he breaks. Must be lots of Gold buyers out here in SD. The radio is full of Gold coin hawkers.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 22:01
Roebear @Wonderful>(@Wonderful):
I am in awe from all the responses to my poll request. Talk about courage under fire, grace under pressure. I am finding this extremely helpful and hope others are also. I would post more but currently when I post my browser and Barts server have a fight and I can't even read the site. So my posts will be few but I will be lurking learning and straining my addled brain and frying my browser to try and find something helpful to post. Now I really know what Cherokee means standing on the shoulders of Giants WOW!


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 21:52
6pak TO Milhouse @ Deflation/Inflation>(TO Milhouse @ Deflation/Inflation):
SORRY ! for the length of the material presented. This is my take on the
subject matter. Per, history research, to establish a trend that the
past will repeat, as in Look Back...See Forward All the economic tricks
have been used up, unfortunately, economic chickens, are coming home to roost. GOLD,is the International Bankers' Currency.

( 1739 ) Treatise On Human Nature by Scottish Philosopher David Hume, 28,
challenges the prevailing Monetary Doctrines of Mercantilism, notable the
Doctrine that a nation can continually increase her stock of GOLD and
Silver, and her prosperity, through surpluses in her Balance of Payments.

Hume questions whether action by government is necessary or even helpful
to maintenance of a nation's money supply.

( 1776 ) Adam Smith, 53, inquiry into The Nature and Causes of the Wealth
of Nation's Smith, of Kirkcaldy, Fifeshire, proposes a system of
Natural Liberty, in Trade, and Commerce.

Consumption is the sole end, and purpose, of all production, and the
interest of the Producer ought to be attended to, only, so far as it may
be necessary for promoting that of the Consumer

The Consumer in the long run has full control over what will and will not
be Produced, says Smith, who teaches at the University of Glasgow.

His massive work establishes the classical school of Political Economy
and will influence all future thinking on Politics and Economics, but, it
shows no awareness of the developing industrial revolution, and while it
espouses *Free-Trade* competition with limited government intervention it
regards *unemployment* as a necessary *evil* to keep costs-and therefore
prices - in check.

( 1811 ) Austria declares bankruptcy March 15, high military outlays have
produced *Inflation*

( 1811 ) Britain adopts paper money as currency May 10, to ease an economic
crisis. A Bullion Report issued by British Government Economists
establishes the intrinsic-value theory of money.

Banknotes may be useful medium of exchange, but, the notes must bear a
definite ratio to the amount of coin and bullion in the vaults.
Government cannot create money, which is rather a token of labour,
performed.

Government can acquire money only through taxation, or, by borrowing, and
for government to issue irredeemable paper money, is, to violate the
sanctity of Contracts, cheat Creditors, Increase prices, and disrupt
Business.

( 1817 ) David Ricardo, 45, English Economist, Economic Theorist, and
London Broker. Principles of Political Economy and The High Price
of Bullion, A Proof of The Depreciation of Bank-Notes Contributes to
Adam Smith's *Free-Trade* theory of ( 1776 ) with a Doctrine of
Comparative Costs and a Labour Theory of Value

Ricardo, postulates a basic antagonism, between, the landlords of England
ESTABLISHMENT and the RISING Lords of England Industry.

( 1929 ) Dow Jones Industrial Average reaches 381 in September, up from
88 in 1924, but, breaks in October following a drop in US iron and steel
production and a rise in British interest rates to 6.5 %, that has pulled
European Capital out of the US money market.

British *unemployment* tops 12.2 % with more miners and workmen idle then
in the General Strike of 1926.

( 1933 ) April 05 US Presidential Order requires that all private gold
holdings be surrendered to Federal Reserve Banks, in exchange for other
coin or currency ( Gold $31.36 per oz. .27 cents above world market )

15 million *unemployed*, those employed have hours and wages reduced 40 %
below 1929 wages......US Annual wages ( 1933 ) Congessmen $8,663,
Lawyer $4,218, Physician $3,382, Engineer $2,250, Public School Teacher
$1,227, Construction Worker $907, Servant $260, Farm Hand $216

( 1935 ) President Roosevelt, reports Internal Revenue Service figures for
the year, in a *Monopoly* message:::one-tenth of 1 %, of US Corporations
own 52 % of all Corporate assets reported, and earn 50 % of all Corporate
income. Less than 5 % own 87 % of all Corporate assets, and less than 4 %
earn 87 % of all net profits reported by all US Corporations.

( 1935 ) Fort Knox is established in Kentucky, to serve as a repository for
US GOLD BULLION. The Army guards the GOLD, and, the government assures
*FOREIGN BANKERS*, that they, can redeem every $35 in US paper currency
for an ounce of GOLD, from Treasury Department Stores, at Fort Knox.
( which, do not approach the STORES held for the accounts of various
NATIONS, in the vaults of the Federal Reserve Bank, in New York )

( 1997 ) Consumers, have much greater goods, then in ( 1776 ) ( 1935 ) , yet,
the economic issues, appear to be the same, Inflation/Deflation,
recession/depression, welfare/unemployed, wages/cutbacks,
longer hours/shorter hours, right wing/left wing ( it is a game, eh! )
Like Hockey, on side/off side, hooking/slashing

Take care.




Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 21:46
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Glad we are back up! Copper down 4% today. Is it still the metal with the PhD in Economics?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 21:42
NJ gold calls>(gold calls):
Following up on Glenn's recommendation, for whatever it is worth, I see that someone bought 5251 October $335 calls today. http://www.cyberramp.net/~chrismc/tables/gc.htm


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 21:41
panda @@@?>(@@@?):
Bill Buckler, vronsky -- Thanks for the info. Now if I could just get in to this site! I've been locked out for about eight hours. High tech reliability!


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 21:25
JDM jdmcclu@ibm.net>(jdmcclu@ibm.net):
ROEBEAR: Still holding all my junior resource stocks. Picked up a little KRY as a bet yesterday.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 21:24
cherokee @bottom-of-the-barrel>(@bottom-of-the-barrel):
earl--

all the grains are making bottom formations. ( finally )
looking at the yearly trend for wheat, we should be very
close to the bottom for this year. yield estimates for beans
and corn are below expectations, while exports are at the high
end of expectations. all we need is for chaos and flux ( el nino )
to rear their ugly heads, and poof, we're off to the races.
the carryover is at historical lows. a drought, or early freeze
in the mid-west will send them sky-rocketing.

i seem to be pre-occupied with gold at the moment. the grains
look very appealing, but gold, like the talking head on cnbc said,
is positioned to build fortunes! every spare red nickel is going
into gold at the moment. the lowest prices in 14 years! to hell
with the idea that gold is good only as a hedge against inflation.
WE know the truth. gold is fixing to rise from the ashes as the
indestructable phoneix.---gold--- gold has ruled before, and it will rule again. the massive sell-off that many said was necessary for THE
bottom to be reached, has happened. what next? we know what is next,
only when, remains to be seen. imo, before this year is over.
dec '97 400 gold calls are 1 pt. or less! options are the way to
stay and play with the current conditions.

the farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see.
winston churchill

prophetic words to live by. a veritable time-machine, is recorded history!

kap-n-kev--

what is YOUR opinion on the grains? where have you been?


cherokee!; ) smoke signals are being sent on all fronts. alas, the
sleepwalkers see only a world made from paper. too bad it is toilet
paper, and not the green of their dreams. confessions will not
elicit any sympathy or understanding. you are still an affront to all.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 21:18
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net):
Roebear: I moved out of my FSAGX fund and into two other sector funds on Monday @ the 10:00 NAV. I am hanging on to my gold and silver coins. When I believe that gold has turned, I'll be back in. Fidelity Select Electronics is up almost a dollar just since monday. It feels good to win once in a while. Bart's ISP is slow.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 21:11
Glenn Auag>(Auag):
The funds are out of control. I'm not sure where they think they can push Gold to but Gold is down again right now on access. The COT report shows they are already streching the rubber band to the max. I do not think I have ever done this before but I'm going to list a specific trade recommendation. Buy Aug COMEX Gold at $315.70 with a stop at $313.20. Risk is $2.50. Raising your stop as you go along I believe we should see $335.00 easy. It may take some time but in the futures markets time is no problem. Of course I should state that trading futures contracts is very risky and bottom picking is the riskist trade of them all so this is only for the strong hearted. Risk only money you can loose and there is no garentee that this trade will work. There I think I covered all the basics.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 20:51
Savage locked out>(locked out):
test....test....


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 20:33
vronsky DAILY NEWS FROM 6 CONTINENTS>(DAILY NEWS FROM 6 CONTINENTS):
All the News Fit to Print - and then some. If it isn’t reported in Daily News section, it ain’t happened yet! From USA, Europe, South Africa, Asia, Australia & South America:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/daily_news.html


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 20:31
REB na>(na):
WW: I am of similar persuasion re possibility of a sudden left turn of the gold price. ( No, I don't mean left turn to level off. ) I have formed a habit of getting up in the middle of the night to see if it has happened. A lot of strange stuff is in the wind.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 20:26
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com):
Panda ( FYI ) According to my figures, 1 troy oz=31.1 grams. Therefore, 1 kilo ( 1000 grams ) =32.1543 troy oz. 1 Metric Tonne=32,154 troy oz. Can anyone ( Bart? ) confirm those figures?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 20:25
Miguel de Guzman @Mars Mining Resources, Ltd>(@Mars Mining Resources, Ltd):
Mars probe mineral samples test out with greenstone & quartzite beds yeilding upwards of 4.6 - 5.8 oz per tonne. Accepting limited partnerships with intention of IPO in the near future. E mail welcome at deimos/phobosphobia@red-dust.com. Plenty iron ore too, but lots rusted.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 20:21
mark mark@ix.netcom.com>(mark@ix.netcom.com):
Well the last few days have been quite painful for anyone long in the commodities markets. Why is it the shorts have had their way in most of these markets? Is it really true the world has change and the old rules no longer apply? The laws of supply and demand do exist and are in complete balance in todays markets.
The answer to these questions is in the flow of money. Money has shifted away from commodities and other physical assets and into financial assets. Until a fundamental shift occurs and money starts to flow back into the commodities markets we can expect to feel more and continued pain. The shift could begin at any time from a few days hence
to many years down the road.
Another reason as to the shorts having their way in the commodity markets over the past years and especially the past few months is seasonally of the commodity markets. Typically these markets will move up in the spring and begun to stumble if not out right fall as we go into the summer months. These markets will generally begin finding some sort of a bottom in the July/August period.
Over the past 15 years the financial market have received the majority of new moneys entering the investment community. It started slowly and has gained momentum as the financial markets have continued to move up in almost a straight line. Today nearly all new moneys are flowing in the financial assets arena, and their is now end in
sight.
What we have experienced over the short run ,since April of this years, is possibly the final washout of weak money out of the commodities markets in the financial markets. So many have lost money for so long they have begun to throw in the towel. Capitulation will set the stage for the bottoming process to begin. Were not there quite yet but a good “dead cat” bounce might be in the offing for the short run.
Markets will usually move to extremes before reversing and the blow off phase is already happening in both the commodities and financial markets. We may have quite a ways to go before both of these markets begin to reverse course. It is extremely difficult to pick market tops or bottoms for any market, let alone a cyclical top and bottom after a
15 year run.
A of possible signs to look for under our current conditions: Dow Jones Industrial Average / Gold last extreme 1965 @ 28.5 times with a of 1.5 in 1980. Current ratio 24.5 times. Under this scenario if gold held its current price of $321 and the market reached the 1965 high this would cap the Dow at around 9150. If Gold fell to $300 the same ratio would suggest a Dow in the area of 8550. In either seniors or many other possibilities this would suggest to Dow has more room to the up side.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 20:20
Roebear @Chocolatetown>(@Chocolatetown):
Earl: Have been having problems all day posting or even reloading kitco, ever since that hepcat's last post. If this gets through by 20:21 EDT then its better.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 20:01
Ww @New England>(@New England):
When you bet against the trend often the changes in ones favor are unpredictable and dramatic. When I was a young lad back in 1987 II was a bond bull to the max ( 80s term ) and a dollar bull. I bought calls on the bonds throughout the summer and Fall of 87/ During that time it was never a right time to buy / the fall in bonds was from 94 to 76 in 4mos . My 18 options went to one ( 18 ) bid the day before the crash/ the morning after they were each worth $1500. This is the type of thing that will happen with gold and silver this time. The sentiment is similar in its hopelessness/ at the time, some may recall, ( being long calls makes you remember ) if econ strong/ bonds down b/c fed tightens and inflation/ if econ weak then $ weak so bonds weak as foreigners may sell and weaker dollar inflationary. Those were the DAYS!!

Today/ Gold to be sold by CBs for bonds to get interest no threat to bonds b/c no inflation. If inflation occurs rates will be raised thus bad for gold. The same bond hopelessness of of 87 exists for gold now. Obvious govt wanted bonds up which was positive in negative environment of the time. Now govts want gold down but lack of supply vis a vis currency and everyone is short more than they own is the silent offsetting fundamental for gold today. The change in gold will be sudden and dramatic and will give no one time to get on board. Staying on board before that wil be like being on the ship of fools. These type of situations of extremes which test all are rare but occurring in our life time.

Example: A friend of mine said the McClellan ocsillator broke an unprecedented point which meant much higher prices and that the oscillator had never done this before. I asked him if it had been in existance in 1929. He looked at me increduously and just said no only since 1966.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 20:00
GFD Thoughts on Martian Economics>(Thoughts on Martian Economics):
Reif: Your 02:09 post really puts a fine point on the situation as it exists today. Thanks! Of course it is hard to say exactly WHEN the shorts are going to cover.

On a different note I am surprised that Greenspan, et al are not more vigilant in supporting gold. Gold is currently giving a classic deflationary signal. Greenspan knows this. The US is in absolutely no condition to handle any type of deflation. Yet somehow the CB's seem to be trying to grease the skids for gold at every opportunity.

If you told someone 10 or 15 years ago what is happening today they would laugh at you - no CB would tolerate serious deflationary signals with the debt load that the US is carrying.

Steve Puetz may or may not be right but gold is sure acting as if he is. The absolutely astonishing part is that the CB's are working overtime to make it so.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 19:59
Option Man alias spread man for today>(alias spread man for today):
There's a great opportunity here on two fronts:

A. ) Platinum OCT 440 Calls were trading at $5.00 today. I didn't sell any today because I sold them a few weeks back but I would recommend it now as the volatilty in the PL may be beginning to wind down. These options are over $50.00 out of the money! The $5.00 premium is a handout.

b. ) Today I put on a spread I bought the October gold at $324.50 and I sold the equivalent ( in ounces ) of October platinum at $390.50. Why the spread? Because gold is near the lowest its been in one heck-of-a-long time and platinum is near the highest it's been in an equally long time. If this is not an opportunity staring at you in the face then I don't know what is.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 19:58
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
It's tough getting into Kitco today for some reason. At least from here in the west. Have had error messages and no uploads all day. Don't even know if this will post.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 19:32
Roebear @HersheyPaUSA>(@HersheyPaUSA):
That was strange, didn't think that post went through. Hard time posting or reading posts today. Thanks 2weeks and kuston, everybody else, its safe to come back now!


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 19:30
Miro @not a good gambler>(@not a good gambler):
Roebear: I am holding my position in stocks - did not try to get out.
With my luck I would sell at law and missed the timing to get back in.
The heck I already took the beating so as a good scout I'll just ride it through


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 19:29
Tortfeasor survey>(survey):
Roebear, I continue to hold all of my silver and gold call options, although I am feeling rather queezy with the prospects for them. I am not going to sell my gold mutual funds. I am going to be buying $25M more in United Service Gold fund as soon as a note matures on August 1. I am also probably going to buy some more call options. I guess I will live or die by the golden rule. Then that has the gold rules.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 17:54
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
I sent the broker a check. They'll have to drive the price negative to
stop me out now. Or raise the margin limits.



Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 17:41
2weeks Too_scared_to_move>(Too_scared_to_move):
I'm a conservative. I held my position ( stocks only ) .


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 17:01
Roebear @Whereohwhere>(@Whereohwhere):
I propose a poll. Who sold out, who went short, futures, puts+calls, and who bought more. I think this group would make an excellent indicator in itself. I held on gold and silver stocks, almost bought more HL but decided to wait. Did everyone else take their ( remaining ) marbles and go home?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 16:52
NJ Inflation>(Inflation):
Inflation is not dead. Who says so? The Fed that's who. http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/08/z0000_z00_12.html


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 16:38
Orson Welles On_The_Radio>(On_The_Radio):
No Martians today. Maybe tomorrow. Sorry.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 16:36
vronsky FINANCIAL SURVIVAL OF JAPAN>(FINANCIAL SURVIVAL OF JAPAN):
Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL Part - III ( 7 July 1997 )

JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK & HARD SPOT: Nippons To Dump U.S. Treasuries & Buy GOLD! This report displays the Bank of Japan's ( BOJ ) June 27 Balance Sheet and a chart of Foreign Central Bank Holdings of U.S. Treasury Bonds versus the S&P 500 Index:

International financial analyst, ORACLE, has expanded on initial findings of Barron’s Randall W. Forsyth ( Barron’s magazine ) and Internet’s Economist George S. Cole. The Land of the Rising Sun is plagued with financial difficulties, choking on U.S. T-Bond indigestion, exacerbated by a pittance gold position, and a must need to reduce excessive dollar exposure to stabilize Yen/Dollar parity. Due to the BOJ’s Balance Sheet and the chart of Foreign Central Bank Holdings of U.S. Treasuries, the website is a little slow to fully load - HOWEVER, I GUARANTEE YOUR PATIENCE WILL BE AMPLY REWARDED -- there is a starling revelation of the relationship of foreign T-Bond purchases and the speculative and relentless rise in the prices of Wall Street stocks.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle707.html



Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 13:58
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Stand Master: I got your e-mail message ( it was music to my ears ) . I will try to reply tonight.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 13:58
Mike Sheller clarification>(clarification):
Re my last post: By stock photography I of course mean pre existing, pre-catalogued images that are bought and sold for client use as graphics or illustrations where needed, rather than going out and shooting your own. One could, on a financial site, conjure images of a photographer urging Now Philip, could you just move a little closer to Mrs. Morris... Great. Now let's get little Microsoft in the picture. Mike?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 13:50
Bob @...au cost stats reported in mid-day NY commodity trade news on Yahoo>(@...au cost stats reported in mid-day NY commodity trade news on Yahoo):
As to supply and demand factors, bullion bankers indicate central bank mobilization of gold reserves is continuing, but at current prices around half of the world's gold mines could be operating at a loss, analysts said.

The average total costs of gold mining, including head office, exploration, depreciation and financing charges was around $317 an ounce in 1996, according to industry consultants, Goldfield Mineral Services ( GFMS ) in a report in May.

But average Australian gold mine total costs were $358 an ounce, while South African mines had average total costs of $334.00 an ounce, compared with $300 an ounce for U.S. mines.

Cheers



Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 13:41
Mike Sheller @uncle Miltie, Digital Cameras>(@uncle Miltie, Digital Cameras):
BW: Maybe Milton Friedman read The Astrological Investor. RE SILVER & Digital Cams: I would not go so far as to say it's the end of photography as we knew it, but digital photography is replacing a solid portion of commercial studio output. Catalogs, still lifes, studio setups of all kinds are no-brainers for the Didge. Also, bear in mind the stock photography business, which is becoming increasingly digitized. Instead of making silver-based film, print, or chrome dupes, cd's are increasingly becoming the medium for storage, duplication, and transmission of images for professionals. I would say, just off the top of my head, that silver has already lost at least 20% ( if not more ) of its applicability to photographic consumption.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 13:37
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Dana: Thanks for the comment -- July 7 @ 23:41 !!


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 13:29
bb fisher cheers@all>(cheers@all):
you must remember that the stock in the stock market is only an investment to the long term holder. to the broker, the specialist and the other market makers stock is merely inventory, like tires, jars, or size 8 donna karans. STUFF that if you are in the stock business you move.

So, when 2 stocks like placer dome and barrick gold tank like they did yesterday and trade enormous volume the market makers find themselves with gobs of inventory because the sells way outnumber the buys.

this is mainly the reason this morning someone from salomon was told to shill for these folks. an acute inventory imbalance had to be moved off the shelves. so, with baited breath leanne whatever her name is bit her lip and told the traumatized public to step up and buy gold shares. not just any gold share mind you but the 2 that traded over 6 millions shares each yesterday. the fact that they might or might be good buys at these levels is really immaterial when you've excess merchandise to move. ask any retailer!

it ain't never what it seems, it is usually much simpler!


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 13:22
Bob @..Computing Canada July 7th ..Euro currency creating IT nightmare>(@..Computing Canada July 7th ..Euro currency creating IT nightmare):
AMERSTERDAM - The European Communtiy's plan to move to a single currency will cost IT departments millions more than what it is costing them to deal with the Year 2000 ( Y2K ) issue.

According to Michael Donahue, who heads up KPMG Peat Marwick LLP's peoplesoft practice in the U.S., the Y2K issue will seem like a walk in the park when compared to what it will take organizations to become euro-compliant, especially for financial institutions.

Euro conversion is costing Wall Street banks six times the investment of the Year 2000 issue, he said....

...If you don't get caught in the Y2K trap, you might get caught in the euro trap, Michael Kleman, SAP AG's German director of corporate cross-application marketing, told Computing Canada at Sapphire '97, SAP's recent annual user conference held in Amsterdam.

[note -- SAP is a $2Billion+ U.S. global software provider of large enterprise business computing solutions]

Cheers


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 13:15
vronsky 32,150 troy ounces/ metric tonne>(32,150 troy ounces/ metric tonne):
Panda - FRI


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 13:10
panda @!>(@!):
Just a thought, how many ounces are in metric ton? ( I'm not sure, but I think it is around 35,000 oz. ) If the Aussies sold 167 metric tons of gold, that would be about six million ounces, give or take. The LBMA claims to clear 30 million ounces a day plus other dealings. Conclusion, the Aussies dumped about a 1/5th of a days trading on the LBMA, assuming that the LBMA doesn't trade even HIGHER volumes of gold ( Bullion ) . The NYMEX ( COMEX ) claims about 3million ounces/day in paper. This is something to think about.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 13:01
bw Must read:>(Must read:):
Milton Friedman has a must read article on page A14 of todays wsj. I have never seen him so mad. This is a sea change in his writing. In short, he says boldly we are not getting our moneys worth on the 50% of gnp we spend on gov! No minced words. He flat says it!


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 12:53
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
The key is the US Bond Market and other bond markets. Rising gold prices would suck money out of these markets when cash is short. Pointcast news reports that physical gold has been short. Gold for delivery has been short and the price has gone down. Robert Rubin's continuing nightmare is that gold price will rise, sucking money out of bond markets and raising interest rates. The bond markets dwarfs all other financial markets combined. The world is running on borrowed money. Australia sold gold to invest in the American bond market. But as Aristotle pointed out one cannot for long pay interest on purely paper money because in one sense paper money doesn't really exist. One can only pay interest on assets. The Central Banks are playing a very dangerous game which could cause the collapse of the world's financial system.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 12:45
vronsky THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)>(THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)):
“Why has the U.S. - fountainhead of antigold sentiment - NOT SOLD any of its gold while encouraging its allies to sell” - Cole’s Market Insights poignant question:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 12:19
bw Re: Milhouse, price rises >(Re: Milhouse, price rises ):
Milhouse: Here is a rational for price rises causing an increase in the money supply. I am not saying I buy all of it but it can be a consideration. Suppose as back in the 1970s a shock ( opec ect. ) causes a large price increase in a critical commodity ( oil ) . Now if the fed does nothing with the money supply the prices of many other things must fall to make up for the added money now going into oil ( the stock all other things being equal ) . However if the fed adds money in an equal amount as the increased money flowing into oil all other prices can remain the same. If the fed does not add many all other prices must undergo deflation ( which could be hard on the fed ) . Since the whole purpose of the fed is to inflate, they inflate.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 12:14
Organ @ Contrarianism>(@ Contrarianism):
I think the time has come to discuss this somewhat counterintuitive concept of the markets -- contrarianism. Contrarian thinking is definitely in vogue these days, with all this talk about maximum optimism/pessimism, put/call analyses, etc. The question is, why does it work. If the press is so negative around a bottom and there are very few buyers, why is it a law that the market in question must rebound? Is it possible that there are so many contrarians in the market these days that this type of strategy no longer works, i.e. the put/call ratio is really high, so all of the contrarians are buying, so I will sell more by being the contrarian's contrarian? The best mechanistic explanation that I have seen stems from Harry C's analysis, where it is implicit that the large market makers manipulate the markets to cause the maximum number of their sold contracts to expire out-of-the-money.

I realize that at a market extreme most people have been wrong about the direction of the market in the past, but this in itself is not enough to suggest that it will continue to be this way now and in the future. Since many people here use contrarian thinking as a basis for their premonitions of gold market rallies and stock market collapses, it is important to ascertain why this market law is valid.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 12:02
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
This goldbug is on the verge of buying some puts. What scares me most is not the *fact* of the Aussie sale, but the Australian Central Bank's statement that it sees no reason to continue holding gold. It is sitting on another 90 tons, and the world's other central bankers are listening.

Tort: Your joke this morning had me in stitches. Thanks. Here's one I found this morning on usenet. Somehow it's relevant for gold, but I personally just can't quite make the stretch.

A lady is having a bad day at the roulette tables in 'Vegas. She's
down to her last $50. Exasperated, she exclaims, What rotten luck!
What in the world should I do now? A man standing next to her, trying
to calm her down, suggests, I don't know... why don't you play your
age?

He walks away. Moments later, his attention is grabbed by a great
commotion at the roulette table. Maybe she won! He rushes back to the
table and pushes his way through the crowd. The lady is lying limp on
the floor, with the table operator kneeling over her.

The man is stunned. He asks, What happened? Is she all right? The
operator replies, I don't know. She put all her money on 29, and 36
came up. Then she just fainted!

%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%
What is a man? A miserable little pile of secrets.
--Andre Malraux

God is dead, but fifty thousand social workers have risen to take his place.
--J.D. McCoughey
%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%



Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 12:01
Donald @Work>(@Work):
ALL: Re. new gold bulls Salamon and First Albany. Like I said in a previous post over the weekend. Greenspan has a price for gold in his head, $500 is too high, $200 is too low. Mabye he picks up the phone and makes a few phone calls to brokers etc.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 11:59
organ @ organizer.com>(@ organizer.com):
I'm still very long XAU and very short Nasdaq. The fundamentals
are awesome for gold mining stocks and the semiconductor stocks
( except for Motorola, only because of their crackerjack cellular biz ) should get pounded due to weak earnings.
Nice to see my hero, George Soros, the greatest financial mind of our times IMHO, making an appearance here and in the press. He calls for an imminent crash of the markets because of the severe inexperience of the investing horde. Usually his comments are self-fulfilling, but the markets are not taking notice, yet. Soon enough.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 11:51
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Typical Asian sell off at the moment before close. Every day at 11:30 same thing.... NY is quite bullish which is good!


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 11:34
Reify @sitcom.co.il>(@sitcom.co.il):
From reading some of the recent posts, I see we have a namesake, REIF, and he's a shorttermer, good, I'm a long termer.
Then there's Miro, hope I got the name right, he sounds like me, easy does it, keep the faith, etc.

Has anyone felt any shorts being squeeeeezed? I think I have!!!


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 11:30
Front To Amateur>(To Amateur):
Amateur at 9:10 :

I think you're onto something there!
Very, very possible !!!!

Good thinking!

Keep it up.

TTFN


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 11:17
6pak Paul Bagnell @ The Financial Post>(Paul Bagnell @ The Financial Post):
July 08 1997- Millions Wiped Off Gold Stocks
http://www.canoe.ca/FP/jul8_millionswi.html


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 11:16
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Front: I would feel more sanguine about $320 if CNBC were not trumpeting major brokerage house buy recommendations on gold stocks, this morning. Somehow it seems like a repeat of Jan. '96 when positive rec's were flying everywhere before the golden nag had even cleared the gate. ...... Actually, it was only as prescient and oxymoronic as military intelligence. ...... As original as well.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 11:13
NJ gold stocks>(gold stocks):
Salomon Brothers says reaction to Australian gold sale over done. Sees present situation as a buying oppurtunity. Added several gold stocks to their Buy list.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 11:12
Milhouse Princeton>(Princeton):

NJ - best thing to do is contact Princeton and ask them to send you a free sample of all the reports. They'll be happy to do this.

GNFN ( Good Night For Now )


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 10:55
Front To Milhouse and Donald>(To Milhouse and Donald):
Gentlemen:

Those prices are not different that Milhouse and I are discussing. Just in different dollars. The $400~$1000 for video is in Canadian dollars. The ~ $1000 for a digital camera is also in CDN $'s. No disagreement at all on the prices....Just to clarify.....

TTFN


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 10:46
vronsky IS GOLD STILL A STORE OF VALUE?>(IS GOLD STILL A STORE OF VALUE?):
International market pundit Milhouse questions common-sense of Australia’s CB selling 2/3s of gold reserves at historically low prices. He foresees higher inflation & money supply - see Guest Guru Milhouse:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html




Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 10:42
Front To EARL :>(To EARL :):
Earl: ( :- )

Good Morning. Hope you realise that your $320 floor is looking good for the moment. I don't understand though. Here I go and ask you to take back the crown for a short time and loe and behold you guess right. Is there some correlation here? Or is it like an oxymoron as in Postal Service or Smart Brokers?

TTFN


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 10:42
NJ Princeton Economics>(Princeton Economics):
Milhouse : I too am not interested in short term trading. I was debating between the Review and the Armstrong Report. Are his opinions included in the review.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 10:41
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
The way I see it, if you want the rainbow,
you gotta put up with the rain.
----Dolly Parton
RJ - I'll get back to you later, busy today!


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 10:41
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
The way I see it, if you want the rainbow,
you gotta put up with the rain.
----Dolly Parton
RJ - I'll get back to you later, busy today!


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 10:36
NJ Inflation>(Inflation):
Milhouse and Vieserre : In his July forecast Stephen Leeb argues that inflation in 1997 is now a given. His reasons are, 1. Wages are rising at the fastes pace since the 1980s. 2. Global pressures under commodity prices. While demands are rising supplies are tight. 3. Forget the Balanced Budget. Politicians have taken notice of the Republican party's decline in poularity to the exact day Newt came out for benefit reductions.4. Greenspan won't dare stop inflation now. Reason, a terrifying stock market collapse would savage not just the Wall Street, but Main Street as well. It will make instantly make most Americans feel poorer, and that would throw the economy into a devastating decline-a recession or maybe even worse.



Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 10:31
Milhouse Princeton>(Princeton):

NJ - I am not interested in short term trading, so I just subscribe to their monthly publication called the World Capital Markets Review.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 10:19
Front TO Donald, REIF, RJ>(TO Donald, REIF, RJ):
Donald:

No, they don't need the photographic paper so the Silver isn't necessary to print pictures of excellent quality from a computer. All you need is glossy paper to print on in a colour ( even a bubblejet, not necessarily a lazer, but it helps ) printer. Nothing special. Milhouse is right of course. The immediate to 1~2 years demand for Silver will not be hurt by digitization techniques however, it's the thin edge of the wedge for the need for Silver in photography. Digital cameras are at the $1000 dollar range, however Video cameras are in the $400~1000 range. That makes the choice between an expensive 35mm and a video ( loaded with extras ) a non brainer.

Reif:

Your 02:09 was excellent. Welcome from Canada as well.

RJ: ( :- )

Now how would you know all about guys in trench coats hiding in bushes with nothing on underneath? ( :- )

TTFN


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 10:14
NJ Princeton Economics>(Princeton Economics):
Milhouse : Out of the services offered by Princeton Economics which ones do you find the most useful.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 10:14
vronsky STEVE PUETZ LETTER (July 7, 1997)>(STEVE PUETZ LETTER (July 7, 1997)):
Warning sounds in London, Economic Mess in France, Recessionary Trend in Australia & Financial Crisis in Far-East, ALL BODE ILL FOR U.S. Stocks. Looming Crash heralds Gold & Silver bull market:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 10:06
Bob @..Strad Master's 00:11 point and question; Peter Munk's view and Gold Management - generallly>(@..Strad Master's 00:11 point and question; Peter Munk's view and Gold Management - generallly):
Agree. The OZ sale was conducted ( I understand ) over the previous six months and the supply was absorbed without material affect. The recent announcement confirmed the sale 'and then the price tanked'. Your wife's TA indicated a bear triangle pattern and the actual downdraft was sponsored not by the fundamentals ( demand / supply of gold ) but by speculative derivative traders who command the gold market. Other informed posts ( Reif ) had indicated that the commercials are net long and the Tom Dick and Mary's ( retail crowd ) have jumped on the downhill ride late in the game...they may be covering as I write.


Peter Munk ( CEO- ABX ) seems to be saying that he's not worried about price since ABX hedged 7.5 m.ozs. at avg. $420 until year 2000 and the company is lowest cost producer ( $200 ) . Great Peter, let Rome burn and see what price ABX shareholders get 'after' cashflow is discounted beyond year 2000. ABX share price isn't dropping only because of the current downdraft in gold price but also for the impending expectation that a contango trading range would settle at historically low prices going forward.

But why should Peter Munk be concerned ? He is a Big Time multimillionaire with a diversified portfolio of real assets - oil, real estate - and the goose that lays the golden eggs ( ABX ) had already made him his initial fortune.

The attitude of Gold Management during this Mother Bear speaks volumes.

For example, the management of BGO tried to slip in a management bonus option scheme to inflate shares ( fully diluted ) by about 10 million or so from existing 108 million. These programs are floated each time the stock tanks. It's a great business - the management gets paid big salaries, bonuses, and low strike options while the shareholders watch their NAV's erode through management strategies to steal more of the equity each time the stock tanks.

Finfing gold requires more luck than technical wizardry. Gold Management's role is to increase shareholder value not to line their collective pockets with shareholder capital.

Call your Investor Relations dept.'s and tell them to keep their greedy hands out of the treasury and off the shareholder's equity !

Cheers


Cheers.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 09:56
Milhouse Wet streets cause rain>(Wet streets cause rain):

To : Vieserre ( 7/7 23:46 )

I read Gene Epstein's article at the time it was published, and I remember thinking that he couldn't be serious. His hypothesis that rising prices CAUSE an increase in the money supply seemed like a joke. I've just re-read the article - here are some points :

- he states that the Fed expands the money supply by reacting to the increased need for debt. His point is that if prices are rising, business needs to borrow more to meet its obligations ( note - he doesn't say what would have caused the prices to rise in the first place )

- he then goes on to contradict himself by saying that money is printed to pay for the cancerous growth of govt and monetary expansion is carried on through the Fed purchase of treasury securities

- towards the end of the article he reiterates that an increase in the money supply is caused by increasing prices of oil, food and medical supplies. Once again he doesn't explain what caused the prices of these goods to rise in the first place and I would also like him to explain how the rate of money supply growth has increased even further during the last 6 months without any increase in the price of oil, food and medical supplies.

- perhaps the greatest of all contradictions is his admission that prices would not rise if we had a stable currency such as gold.

It is not just common sense that increasing the money supply will lead to higher prices. It has always done so in the past. Why is it so different this time around ?

BTW, it seems unlikely that the Fed does not use M3 as a measure of inflation, knowing what we know about AG, but the financial media certainly seem to be ignoring it. The Fed does not operate independently of politics and will therefore choose inflation as the lesser evil, even if it only provides a temporary reprieve. The financial press won't notice the high money supply growth rates until its effects are very obvious.

Regards, Milhouse


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 09:34
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
Earl - I thought we were on the road to assuagement. But you are right.
I have used a lot of handles. Not so much on this channel, and not
so much of late. On SI, I had to keep using them every time I was disconnected.
Now I can't post at all without paying $75. ( Well, I could, but it's not worth
the effort. ) Everyone who was a member prior to 1997 was grandfathered in.
I was a member prior to 1997, but, well, you raise some questions about
somebody's Flag, and that's the thanks you get.
I didn't say I was complaining about other people using multiple handles.
I certainly wasn't the one who started it. I guess I got a little disillusioned
when I discovered that the same person would pose a question under
one handle and answer it under another. I certainly didn't do a good job
( or even attempt to do a good job ) of disguising myself. As I pointed
out before, you don't even have to examine what I'm saying, only the
placement of the hard returns, to tell it was me.
I would be the first to recommend that Bart institute a policy similar to SI,
where a person is forced to have a certain handle when they enter a comment.
Unfortunately, even that system is easily surmounted ( as I demonstrated ) ,
and so the multiple handle problem wouldn't go away, in fact, it would only be
exploited by people who could post under multiple handles.
The fact is, Bart hasn't instituted that policy yet, and whether it is because it
is difficult technically or some of the long-timers convinced him it wasn't a good idea on the last survey or whatever, the current situation is controlled chaos and
the alternative is a controlled chorus. Would you be able to turn a phrase
like more handles than a fat man's casket if you didn't have someone
like me at this site?
I have quieted down measurably over at K-2, and only started reposting
( under my real handle ) once RJ2 came back on ( under a different handle )
and started cranking up the projector. I have made it very clear over there
that I am derivative, that every one of their posts elicits one of mine.
They have a mission, why am I not allowed to have one?
Be careful what you wish for. A site where everyone must toe the party
line is a pretty uninteresting place. The true experts here would not tolerate
my boorishness for more than a couple days, they would form their own
chat group or communicate by E-mail. A lot of what is posted here
is by people who enjoy the sound of their own voice ( myself included ) .
Set the K-1 time traveler to any day in any month and see if the same things
aren't being posted about the bottom being just around the corner by the
same people. So if we're going to restrict it to level of aptitude, I should
hardly be the first to go.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 09:33
Donald @Work>(@Work):
MILHOUSE: No. I have a Leica CL in the shop for repairs. After deflation I will get the digital type.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 09:33
NJ Munk>(Munk):
Peter Munk, Chirman ABX was on CNBC. He says this is the time for serious wealth creation in the gold market. He feels present volatility due uncertainity over new European Bank's policy on gold. Expects that to be resolved in 6 to 9 months. Meanwhile, nothing wrong with supply and demand situation. Demand increasing throughout the world, supply shrinking because of shortage of funds for new exploration and development. Said gold has been around since Cleopatra and not likely to go out of fashion in our lifetimes.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 09:32
Roebear @EBN>(@EBN):
EBN 321.45 up 3.20, silver 4.38 up .09. Panda, I feel your pain! But we must carry on and the best medication in bottles comes from Tennessee.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 09:25
panda @>(@):
Roebear -- I have gold disease problem, need to find my Prozac, just like da Wall Street boyz. Don't worry be happy... Where in the hell is that bottle! :- )

What was the '49rs tune, California or bust! Hmmm, I understand the latter now.

This is it for the PG metals, delivery is supposed to take place this week. We will see what we shall see!


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 09:25
Milhouse the Digital Photographer !>(the Digital Photographer !):

Donald, In Hong Kong today you can buy a good digital camera for around US$500. They should be down to $300 within 12 months. BTW - have you played with a digital camera ? They are wonderful toys !
Regards, Milhouse


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 09:23
Lady Macbeth Out damn spot>(Out damn spot):
USA Today / Crystal Bay / EBN / Kitco:

http://167.8.29.19/money/gold.htm

http://www.pm-connect.com/images/right.map?68,31

http://www.ebn.co.uk/HTMFILES/MKTSCOMM.HTML-SSI

http:///gold.live.html


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 09:11
Donald @Work>(@Work):
MILHOUSE: The bulk of photos taken are family snapshots that people pass around at the next picnic. They still want that. Digital cameras cost $1000 or so now, much cheaper later but it will be awhile before they compete with a good quality family type 35mm at $100-$150. Do they use silver to make the prints from a digitized image?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 09:10
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home):
Roebear: Distant cousin but this part of the family calls him Pokey.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 09:10
amateur fraharg@princeton.edu>(fraharg@princeton.edu):
Consider the following sequence of events: ( 1 ) Hashimoto statement at Columbia; ( 2 ) Fed decision to leave interest rates alone; ( 3 ) collapse in gold market. The Fed could have helped the Japanese by raising interest rates, but did not do so. Did it help the Japanese by promoting a sharp decline in the gold price? That enables the Japanese to diversify their reserves into gold without having to unload enormous amounts of US Treasuries; it protects the US stock market, which is hypersensitive to a rise in domestic interest rates; and it strengthens the dollar, as Japan desires. Could there have been an agreement between the US and Japan to lower the gold price to a point at which Japan would need to sell only a specified quantity of US paper in order to accomplish its goals?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 09:09
Charleston Goldbug @GoldBug Ave. Sullivans Island>(@GoldBug Ave. Sullivans Island):
It is my understanding that Soros said the large number
of inexperienced investors COULD, not would, precipitate a crash.

It is clear from the trading pattern of my customers ( I
am a broker ) , people are buying momentum stocks or funds and
have no or little interest in value or dividends. As soon as the bog mo stocks falter, we will likely see a very large selling wave in
the large cap stocks.

The persistent drop in gold is certainly the result of large scale
liquidation of holdings. The question is why? There must be some major
liquidity problem in the world financial markets behind this.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 09:08
Roebear @second place>(@second place):
IDT You are fast, related to Speed?
Panda Where is my morning newsflash, I miss'em!
All My family thinks monitor is permanently attached to me head!


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 09:04
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home):
Hey, EBN says spot gold up $3.60, Silver up $.07.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 09:03
panda @now.what?>(@now.what?):
Dead cat bounce or a rel ralley?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 09:02
Hashimoto @Bonsai!>(@Bonsai!):

I think I take gold off Diet now. I will to feed it much dollar. hahaha


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 09:01
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Oracle's views are again presented with detailed finality. I fear he is within $50 of being right. Back in the fall of '96 he was within $110 or so of being right. Once the allure of US paper is lost in the eyes of those who hold and more importantly continue to buy US paper--what a mess we will see.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 08:59
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Milhouse I agree with your 07:54, will try to dig some figures for timing ( hopefully future ) that fundamental s/d shift.
Kev Welcome back. Reif Welcome Aboard, Roebuck was very close. Ted when are you coming back, look what happens when you are gone!


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 08:55
Donald @Work>(@Work):
Glamis Gold cost of production US$257 as of 3-31-97. Down from US$320 same period last year. Must be doing something right. It hardly slipped yesterday.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 08:39
2weeks Some_rules_are_necessary>(Some_rules_are_necessary):
Sorry to inconvenience you all, but as a condition of continued participation in this forum you are required to read the 7/7/1997 2121 post by Vronsky.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 08:06
Milhouse @HK>(@HK):

At the moment, to a man with a hammer everything looks like a gold stock. Oz gold mining shares slaughtered again today. I must confess I couldn't resist the bargains today and jumped in to the market to pick up a swag of Normandy Mining ( NDY ) at $1.23 a share. Who would be stupid enough to sell NDY at 1.23 ? A month ago it was trading at 1.60, already a huge discount to the company's intrinsic value. Oh well, to quote Buffett, you should profit from folly, not participate in it.

Annual results for the 96/97 financial year should be posted for Aust gold companies during the next few weeks. Will be interesting to see how the real businesses are performing. Faced with some hard facts it is possible that logic and common sense will start to replace the current fear and loathing.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 08:00
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn):
Well, it looks like continuing bad news for my faltering options in gold and silver. Methinks that we stand on the precipice of big doings in the world and that the result will be a lot of people in the condition which we gold bugs find ourselves in, i. e. pretty much broke, at least on paper. But then I would rather be broke holding gold than in the same condition holding paper. Here's the joke of the morning for you Clinton haters like me.

A guy is sitting at a bar and orders a drink. At the same time the TV
go's on and there is Bill Clinton about to give a speech. The man
yells, There's a horses ass A guy gets up and punches him.. And the
man left.. Then when Hilary Clinton came on he said the same, There's a
horses ASS.. He then got punched again.. So he says to the bartender,
What is this Clinton country.. The bartender says no, Horse country


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 07:57
Kev Kevin56@worldnet.att.net>(Kevin56@worldnet.att.net):
HI Cherokee, I'm doin' fine looking for a bottom now in grains, started
doing the daytrading SP 500......GOLD?...my boat sank & I ran out of paint to keep changing the waterline, currently welding up a submarine
to do some deep diving in the metals, HOW BE YOU?

HI YA EARL!
KAP'NKEV


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 07:54
Milhouse Silver>(Silver):

Front - re your comments on the the digitising ( is this a word? ) of photography and the impact on silver usage. As you mentioned, one of the major benefits of digital cameras and video is your ability to subsequently transmit the images electronically and instantaneously to anywhere in the world. I can take a photo in Hong Kong, down load it to my PC, and within a few minutes my friends in Australia can be viewing the picture on their colour monitors. This new technology is not likely to significantly affect the demand for silver during the next 12 months, but it will completely alter the supply/demand dynamics of the silver market for all time.

RJ - I too am interested in why you are buying silver at the moment. As Mooney stated, this appears to be in total contradiction to your trading philosophy as previously outlined by yourself. Also, at what point do you admit a mistake ? When it goes below 4.00, or below 3.75, or 3.50 ? I'm genuinely interested.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 07:54
auroelf whose money is it, anyway?>(whose money is it, anyway?):
Strad: If he'll let you NEVER let a broker tell you what to do.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 07:51
2weeks This_is_the_last_straw>(This_is_the_last_straw):
Gold down $40? I can handle it. PM stocks off 30%? Hey, pour it on - I can take it. Only 3 posts on Kitco in over two hours? Now _that_ bothers me.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 07:42
Joe foxcom@alphalink.com.au>(foxcom@alphalink.com.au):
My first time on-so here goes.Well its been another bad day on the Aussie Gold Index dropping more than 8%.I'm hurting and so are many others.But speaking with brokers the majority of selling is forced selling due to heavy borrowings.In fact in the afternoon brokers reported bargain hunters coming in and picking up the very shares forced sellers left behind.
Everyone seems to be worried about more central bank selling.I cannot see it happening while the price is dropping when if you are the holder of tonnes of gold you are only going to kick yourself by driving the price even further down and therefore defeating yourself.What happened to the old adage of buying in gloom when everyone else is scared and panicked.I bought Lihir Gold Mine at $1.72 this morning when everyone was shitting themselves and they finished at $1.85.

By the way whoever is buying the so called crap gold must be confident of the future.Can anyone tell me who is buying it?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 07:14
Bob A at work>(at work):
to BAS I'd like to read what G. Soros has to say, which newspaper please?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 06:52
2weeks The_thrill_is_gone>(The_thrill_is_gone):
Nice post, KHH. My question: Did we ever really make it out of the 30s depression, or did we just paper over the problem? Is there really all that alleged health in today's economy? During the alleged roaring 20s, two banks failed every day. Where's the bubble? Is it in the precious metals, or in the international economy?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 06:09
Donald @Home>(@Home):
BAS: The Soros name can probably do it just by thinking out loud.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 05:30
Amnesty @who crashed my puter>(@who crashed my puter):
These events unfolding before our very eyes are about governments
manouvering for more economic freedom. Unfortunatly time will show
that Central Bank sell-offs will only lead to economic weakness. Has
Australia just sold its soul to the The Great American Economic
Machine?.The Aussie dollar seems to be following gold down at the moment
and one has to wonder whether there are a few in the RBA keeping their
fingers crossed that the dollar doesnt fall below 74c. Who's been blowing
in the ears of the weak Australian leadership? Is the 2.1 billion going
to be pumped into the US economy, and is it a form of protection payment? US forses have been getting used to the Aussie terrain and coastline,although Ross River fever gets them every time,and could we
see an increase in US presence here? These and other questions will no
doubt be answered in time.
Just remember everyone the Liberal Government of Australia stepped
out of the fifties and about all they can muster is Bo Peeps Sheep.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 05:14
Bas Bleeding heavily>(Bleeding heavily):
Reported in paper today that George Soros predicting imminent collapse of stock markets. Must be long on gold?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 04:21
News @>(@):

Just heard PRI may be on its way to defeat for the first time in modern Mexican democracy. The political shifts continue apace.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 03:58
KHH @Kitco>(@Kitco):

Hi all. I have read here for about 6 months. I haven't seen any thing like these last 3 days in a market since the Crash of '87. The shocked, disbelieving stares. The fear and denial. People clamouring to sell their stocks at the panic low. This gold market does not look like a bubble bursting. The bubble is elsewhere--currencies, derivatives, and Government obligations. Have these gone away since last weekend? Are they getting better? My plans are to continue to buy the PM sector at these bargain levels. I believe that strategy will be well rewarded. Good night and good fortune.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 03:57
Strad Master Strad1@idt.net >(Strad1@idt.net ):
REIF: For a newcommer to this game you sure seem to know a lot. Wish I could have absorbed so much in so short a time. I've been at this for a bit more than a year and still manage to lose more than I make but insist on persevering, nonetheless. Us novices ought to stick together. I look forward to sharing information. E-mail me if you feel like it.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 03:39
Reif Errata>(Errata):
Sorry, I meant RoeBEAR, not Roebuck.

Reif


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 03:35
Jack It took character>(It took character):

It took character and a huge pair of cajones for Prime Minister Hashimoto to make his now forgotten statement about selling US Bonds and buying gold.
Perhaps Japanese exports to the US would have suffered if Japan did such with their own money and the value of its US bond portfolio will/may suffereds - but what else is new.
It's a big uncertain world no matter how we look at it.
I respect Mr. Hashimoto much more than most of our own leaders.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 03:35
Reif Really just a new guy>(Really just a new guy):
RJ and Strad: Thanks for the compliment but lest some here think I REALLY know what I'm doing or talking about, I have been at this less than a year. I have, however, ( hopefully ) been paying attention to people a lot more experienced and so I can talk a pretty good game.

Earl: I trade all the major ags and mess with the metals ( probably too much to follow - see? - amateur. )

As far as silver goes, I think it will follow gold, but not to the extreme because the small specs have not been selling like they have the gold, so there won't be as many to cover going back up. We'll have to wait until the open interest comes out tomorrow, but I suspect in contrast to gold there WERE a lot of weak longs shaken ( not stirred, Roebuck ) out Monday ( although not Friday ) in Silver. ( I haven't figured out yet why there always seems to be about 20,000 net long small specs, regardless of price flux. Maybe a lot of small dealers? ) . I try not to pick bottoms' and tops' prices ( although I am still guilty of it more than I should be ) but I suspect time wise gold and silver will put in the bottoms in the next two weeks. The theory is if you can get in on 70% of the trend, you don't need the 15% on either side.

Disclaimer: This commentary is free; sometimes you get what you pay for.

Reif


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 02:59
Strad Master Difference of opinion>(Difference of opinion):
RJ: Today my broker unhedged 30 bars of silver to the downside and those have made 15 cents. He wanted me to pour more money into the pot to short another 10 bars but I declined since that strategic tack has ALWAYS resulted in disaster. His downside target is 3.70. My opinion is more in line with yours, and depending on what happens tomorrow I may try to cover those - if he'll let me.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 02:53
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Cherokee: If you still be up ( as in awake, that is ) ; do you see the grains beginning to form a bottom here somewhere. Looking at some long term charts the past few days, they are approaching some major lows.

Reif: If you're still lurking. What markets do you trade?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 02:51
Jack Jack to Jack>(Jack to Jack):

Jack ( 20:06 ) Keep buying that silver metal, it will
definately help Prime Resources a bit in the long run.

Can't believe that digital photograpy will take the upper hand for a long time to come. It's a big world, some
are poor and others like quality.

Then I have the archaic belief that silver is money.

Futures and options are scary - my last paragraph touches on that.

Can you believe, that with the stated shortages, that it can be driven to lows eqiuvalent ( inflation adjusted ) to those of the mid sixties?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 02:45
RJ Silver up, gold down.>(Silver up, gold down.):
Strad - A shot in the dark. Anyway, I still like silver here, bought some more today. I think the commercials will stock up at this price. Look out for Kodak. Reif seems to have a very good handle on things. This guy has been around a bit more than he lets on. I wish I still had shorts to cover tomorrow. Hey Reif - where for art silver



Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 02:44
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Reif ( not Reify ) : I second Strad's comments and retract my earlier post. It was that late hour serving of fruit cocktail that made me do it.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 02:39
Jack Jack to Jack>(Jack to Jack):

Jack ( 20:06 ) Keep buying that silver metal, it will definately help Prime Resources a bit in the long run. Can't believe that digital photograpy will take the upper hand for a long time to come. It's a big world, some of are poor and others like quality. Then I have the archaic belief that silver is money.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 02:35
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Will we see $250

1. It would certainly set an important base for a big move.
2. Long term support is just waiting to be broken.
3. What does long term support mean in a bear market?
4. It would not allow harvest of the spec shorts who would scale out on the way down.
5. Would it improve the gold lessor's prospects for getting their gold returned?
6. From anecdotal comments this weekend it would absolutely shake loose a lot of gold from weak hands and improve the prospects for #5 above.
7. Stocks like ABX have not had a good shakeout in their entire existence.
8. No help from silver IMO. Silver was $4.00 in the late '70s. It's still $4.00. .... At least gold is not at its late '70s price of $120. Yet.
9. If the Japanese have a problem with being short PGMs in a tight market, a discrediting of all PMs would likely help their position.
10. If the world will begin disintermediating ( love banker's words ) US debt, a thorough savaging of PMs would give CBs some extra wiggle room. ... A burn their butts, so they won't touch it, strategy.
11. Events may make all manipulative gold strategies nonstarters. ie, market meltdown. Problem is: a market meltdown takes time to develop. $250 gold is just around the corner. A dozen 6 buck days and there you have it.
12. It would hurt the mining industry. ...Employing a tiny fraction of voters and the 'greens' would love it.

#1 reason why it won't go to $250: It would likely irritate, disenfranchise and otherwise injure, millions of well meaning gold bugs everwhere.




Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 02:34
Orpailleur @G/S Ratio>(@G/S Ratio):
IDT: You may have it here with 313 gold and 4.29 silver. Still, if there's one metal more likely to hold than the other, its gold, as Armstrong sees this ratio ultimately heading way higher, way up beyond 100, up to 150.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 02:21
Strad Master The wordsmith strikes again!>(The wordsmith strikes again!):
RJ: Loved your 2:10 Bit-O-Prose! To whom was that directed? I want an autographed copy of your first book! BTW, do you have a downside price target for silver?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 02:18
Strad Master Ahoy!>(Ahoy!):
REIF: Welcome onboard! A most lucid and informative post! Thanks for sharing your thoughts. We can use a few more here who don't care which way the prices go so long as money is made in the process!


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 02:16
cherokee @welcome-back>(@welcome-back):
KAP-N-KEV-------

welcome back! how much did you make in beans?


tort--

you having ted withdrawl yet?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 02:10
RJ A Bit-O-Prose>(A Bit-O-Prose):
As is so often the case with blowhards, when called to task, they content to hide naked in their raincoats as they crouch in the bushes with perverted hopes of flashing their brilliance.

How’s that for some eloquence? Not bad thinks I.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 02:09
Reif (not Reify, he's a different guy)>((not Reify, he's a different guy)):
Just been lurking the last few days and really enjoy the comments from the gold bugs. I never realized there was a group with such a passion for the yellow stuff, it's ( currently ) like rooting for the Cubs or the Red Sox.

I'm a trader, a pretty new one at that, and I have no particular wish for gold to go up or down, just that I am on the correct side of the move.

The trend IS down, but I see a few factors that warn that the bottom, if not in, is close.

All have been mentioned here in some form, but I'll try and be brief and tie them together.

1: The commercials are major net longs. These guys are in it for the big move, not the ticks. They can't buy 50,000 contracts at a time because the market would jump away from them, so they have to start buying before the bottom, and they have the deep pockets to handle an overshoot on their projected bottom.

2. The newspapers. The news is that gold is going down. That means every Tom, Dick and Mary who hasn't been paying attention is going to try and get on board with the down move ( I suspect the last two days have seen that. ) This sets the amatuers up for the whipsaw, and panic covering.

3. Open interest in Gold Thursday INCREASED ( 11,000 contracts - a full 5% ) - which means that was NOT panic selling by the longs ( closing contracts ) , but MANIC selling by the new shorts - and there were a lot of people happy to buy at those prices.

4. Divergence in the Bonds/S+P. Other indicators to me say tht the S+P is topping ( at least short term ) within a week or two. This will probably be the news that sets the weak shorts scrambling for cover, and has been mentioned, the longs will sit with their arms folded and watch the price go sky high.

I suspect that the bottom will not be a spike, it will take a couple of days, unless the S+P goes before the bottom starts to form.

As for me, I'm covering my shorts tomorrow, and will wait for the breakout to the upside before jumping in the other way.

Good Luck.

Reif


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 02:02
cherokee @goodness-gracious!>(@goodness-gracious!):
geff--

you were too harsh! you should have left-out complete.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 01:52
cherokee @let's-vote>(@let's-vote):
re:hepcat1:04

bart---

with the confession still fresh, there should be
a vote by all. a vote relegating 'it' to only
participating as a reader, not a poster.



Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 01:45
Jack Selby>(Selby):

Selby: I'm the Jack of the ( 19:13 post ) and ask if at any time in history; anywhere, if there has really been any harmony, either political or financial.
My point, is to be aware of what the powers are up to. Their methods have always been to rub one group against the other and thus create the fireworks that lead to their own dominance.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 01:45
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
John @Handles: Coming from someone who has displayed more handles than a fat man's casket; your concern for imposters is somewhat misplaced. Egads John. On you, righteousness is an ill fitting garment.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 01:41
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net):
while I think anyone who thinks that gold has bottomed for all times at 319 is a complete jackasss I still believe that at least 10% belongs in every balanced investors portfolio./


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 01:38
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
RJ: I thought that one would catch your attention. I agree with you on the action of that period and its irrelavance to today. I was also prepared to argue with you on your 'two seven five' and reiterate a comment from earlier today. That gold would hold at long term lows of $320. That was until reading Oracle's #3.

Should the world's smart money conclude that it is time to take the foot off the throat of the gold market, in advance of severe currency turmoil; a sharp - shake the tree - drop to $250 would likely impress all, save those with a wooden post in their heritage. Even us diehards.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 01:16
Ali @sunshineland>(@sunshineland):
Chris Sun, where do you get that figure of 120000 metric tons of gold from?If ever that much was produced it certainly is not available for trade,more certainly not, unless you kill of all the woman folk in the world and what would life be without a woman to boss you around? I bet there is not much 'free gold' in the trade channels other than CB's and most of that is political and as such limited too.Just read John Kaplans site today and see what the fight is all about:the shorts against the commercials and I don't care if they kill each other.If the gold comes down another step I just enter the fray and buy gold and feel rich for a while,if the gold does up,well that is good too,as I own shares in juniors with a lot of gold in the ground.I just can't loose!Just watch the fun and enjoy life.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 01:15
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
Anyone doubting any post with RJ attatched - I have reviewed them all - Feel free to e-mail me in private. I need no masks, nor do I need defenders. I do well to stand on my own.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 01:14
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
At least Gold is heading in the right direction at the moment! 320..


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 01:09
RJ $1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00 Gold>($1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00 Gold):
Earl - I agree that any talk of 1979 - 1980 is as relevant as talk of 1929. The unheard of prices of gold, silver, and platinum in 1980 were an aberration, a feeding frenzy in which the vast majority chased the market and lost their collective shirts. I find it interesting that the champions for 800 - 1000 gold, are the same who warn of the unheard of highs in the equities. Sounds like Deja Vu all over again


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 01:04
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

I for one can't believe that the real Mooney and the real RJ are
having this conversation. RJ has the feel of the right RJ and the
timing is right, but he is generally more eloquent out of the gate.
Mooney would have to be crazy to attack RJ so openly.
Not that I don't trust either of you, but can you give me some
distinguishing features?

Everybody - One of the reasons why I stooped so often to
provoking people on this site ( not the main one, but one anyway )
was in an attempt to distinguish people posting with their real handle
from people who had appropriated someone else's handle.
Also, I wanted to see whether I could identify interesting generic posters
( Lurker, Another Lurker, LurkerX ) from their heat trace. It seems
to me that people have trouble keeping up an act when they are
angry. Anyway, I proved to be no better than just random guessing
at unmasking people, so we'll write that one off as a failed experiment.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 01:03
Scotty Russian economy....>(Russian economy....):
The Rooskies don't have it much better than the Thai's. But then, they don't have any gold left, either.

http://www.russiatoday.com/rtoday/business/news/02.html



Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 00:59
Scotty and you think you have it bad>(and you think you have it bad):
Looks like wild inflation has started in Thailand following the devaluation of the Baht last week. Perhaps some wise Thai's will be buying gold to help prop things up? Remember, you heard it here first!! :- ) )

http://www.asiatimes.com/97/07/08/08079707.html



Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 00:43
RJ Show me the $>(Show me the $):
Mooney - Spent some time reviewing some of your priors. You have been a wonderful cheerleader for gold, but your pom poms are becoming a bit frayed. I will stand by all my priors if you stand by yours. Who would have made more $ ?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 00:31
George Soros@soros.com>(Soros@soros.com):
Like someone who has consumed quantities of libation, world
economies are on the verge of a deflationary hangover.
Where there is massive, uncontrolled debt, there becomes no room
to create more debt and the train stops and economies slump.
The current drop in gold prices indicates irrational motivation
to preserve the trains momentum. Additional, creative motivations
have and will continue to occur to escape this great the debt noose.
You see, debt serves a great purpose provided it does not get out of control. Unfortunately, the noose is around many necks.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 00:29
RJ Mooney>(Mooney):
PS - Weren’t your telling folks to buy gold from $340 + ? I've been short the whole time. Covered a bit early, but who can pick a bottom, Oh, that's right, you can. So Tell me, where is the bottom now? Maybe you would like to buy some gold now. I know some Europeans who would oblige. Hell you can have mine for a halfway decent offer. I'll buy silver ant platinum with the $.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 00:25
RJ You're probably right>(You're probably right):
Mooney - I guess I could be wrong. It will probably blow right through $275 on the way to $250. Just wait until the Swiss and Germans wade into the fray. There will be no bottom. You will be paying people to take that ugly yellow crud off your hands. Doesn’t anybody here realize that gold is only worth as much as people think it is? Apart from this crowd, they don’t think much of it.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 00:24
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
How many have ever questioned the independent validity of $800 gold in 1980? A moot question now, perhaps but the following chart should at least plant a seed of doubt. ... Would gold have reached $800 if the Hunt Bro's had not been driving silver up to unheard of levels? What if silver had only reached $10 or $15 per ounce? Would gold have then reached $800 without the auxilliary help provided by silver?

I think it's an important question if some would project a future in the thousands for gold on the basis of a slim moment in 1980.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 00:11
Strad Master Makes no sense!>(Makes no sense!):
GEORGE S. COLE, OR ANYONE: I just got through reading your market report over at Gold Eagle and a question struck me. Maybe I'm naive in my understanding, but the price of gold tanked AFTER the announcement that Australia's CB sold off one third of its gold. If that is so, it would seem to me that the sale price had already been absorbed into the general market price and should have no effect either way. I other words, it is a fait accompli - the Aussies sold it, someone ( Koreans ) bought it. So what? Why should the price drop unless that isn't the real reason?
Along those lines, my wife, who is pretty good at TA, had been looking at the gold and silver charts for weeks and discerning a big descending triangle which she interpreted as extremely bearish. Sure enough! She bought a Gold Short about $20 ago so at least we're making a little on this move. ( Unless we screw it up! ) If her interpretation was right ( as it appears ) it was there for all to see!


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 00:11
AD NEWSLETTER ------>(------------):
Advertising message deleted......


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 00:09
mac never@the-truth>(never@the-truth):
Ark,

Yea, that be 1992 ( Clinton elected ) - from there out you need to watch his lips. Why do you think we insist on such high overseas sales for our government securities ( aka - BONDS ) . Once inflation is kicked in to balance the budget and pay of our dept with inflated dollars - WHO is holding those bags?


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 00:08
Mooney @RJ>(@RJ):
RJ - Re: your 20:26 - Wrong Again! We will not see $275.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 00:07
Larryn rally soon>(rally soon):
Miro.. I consider that gold is not always priced just as a commodity. It is more or less an inverse measurement of the value of a currency. As the price of gold descends, it means that the dollar has more value ( it takes fewer to buy one oz ) , and vice versa. This applies somewhat to all currencies. The Australian central bank apparently would rather have dollar debt and the interest payment than have gold in the vault. However, now that we are near the production cost for new gold, and considering that gold consumption has exceeded production for the last 8 years, the fundamentals for gold will very soon stop the descent. The values of paper currencies have appreciated about 20% against gold since last year and I don't think that the dollar will go up ( gold down ) much further as US debt continues to increase.

Murray.. I agree with your post. The price of gold has been forced down with so much shorting that it is not the supply/demand for gold that is determining the price; it is a financially manipulated value created by selling of virtual gold which will have to be matched eventually by buying of the same. When the down trend slows and a few shorts cover, there will be minimum sellers and the rally will begin. The stampede to cover will be significant. Predicting the time is not easy.

Can you imagine the effect of one major central bank deciding to increase it's holding of gold at this price? All it would take would be a rumor.


Date: Tue Jul 08 1997 00:05
cherokee @mike-bit-the-ear---vronsky-and-oracle-hit-the-nail-on-the-head>(@mike-bit-the-ear---vronsky-and-oracle-hit-the-nail-on-the-head):
vronsky---

i must admit that from all the relevant info i've gained
from this forum, none compares with the 21:21 post with
graphic!!!!!!! thanks to you for your site, and oracle for
some dandy investigative reporting. the graphic is awesome,
and cannot be disputed, as one picture is worth a thousand
words!

if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have
stood on the shoulders of giants. isaac newton

vronsky and oracle-- you both are to be commended for
allowing so many ( me included ) to stand on your shoulders,
and to see beyond our horizon! knowledge is power, and
kitco is a place of power.

thanks oracle, vronsky, and gsc. now, where is the broker
that laughs every-time i buy gold calls? i'm going to really
make him laugh tuesday. dec gold 400.00 calls for $10.00!
i'll laugh with him, thanks to some power given by some giants!!!

cherokee!; ) a spoke in the great wheel of life.



Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 23:57
ark saltedbre@chz.whay>(saltedbre@chz.whay):
Anyone know when, at current rates of U.S. government
spending, tax revenues will equal the interest on the
public debt?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 23:55
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Let's change the subject to PL for a moment. Here is PL plotted with the Japanese Yen. They would seem to follow one another closely.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 23:54
AlKahulik kulick@idt.net>(kulick@idt.net):
Once upon a time, there was a great king. He was held
in great esteem by all. One day the king had a great
party. He invited all of his great friends. Upon arriving
at the party, the king's guests noticed that the king
did not appear quite right, in fact he appeared quite
naked. The guests mumbled about such circumstance, but
they were quickly informed that the king was wearing
special invisible royal robes. It was suggested that such
garments should become the fashion throughout the land.

Many people came from far and near to pay handsome sums
for this new fashion. They paid with their gold, but they
received nothing in return, not a stitch. Some dared complain,
but they were quickly given extra invisible royal robes. It was
explained that this was to be a payment of interest. This was
acceptable and the people went away jubilant.

Alas, anyone who dared to speak the truth about such doings
were mocked and scorned. You fool! Can't you see the beautiful
garments that we are wearing exclaimed the beautiful people.
And so, quite soon, there were many stark naked people and
a few rich tailors.
The rest is history.



Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 23:51
Mooney @Poorboys>(@Poorboys):
Poorboys - Then we must have rubbed shoulders - or at least have been oogling each others 'ol ladies. ;- ) Did you happen to catch that crazy band from Africa - Osibisa?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 23:50
Roebear @Hersheysobertarium>(@Hersheysobertarium):
RJ Thanks,I really appreciate and learn from your posts. One question, can you give any fundamentals, TA, intuition, whatever as to why silver will do well short term as opposed to bearish ( short-term ) views such as
Martin Armstrongs? I know you are busy...


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 23:50
ezau swami@crystal.ball>(swami@crystal.ball):
Ok then, I'll sell my long position into the next gold rally
and wait for the defined bottom formation. I'll hold cash
during the wait. Don't worry Mom, I'll wear my mittens.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 23:46
Vieserre home>(home):

MILHOUSE: Thanks for another well-written article in the GE. The following may be of interest to you in regard to your view that an increase in money supply will cause inflation. Gene Epstein of Barrons has several articles on the subject. The second article is under this URL: http://www.barrons.com/bie/articles/19970207/economic_beat.htm -
and an earlier related article is referenced therein. It is his contention that the common belief that inflation is induced by a FED induced increase in money supply is dead wrong, rather an increase of money supply is a sympton of inflation and not the cause. And, inflation is produced by an increase in the price of things such as oil, health care, food etc. Further he states the FED is reactive rather than proactive in increasing the money supply base, and that banks have the principal role in this regard, much of which is outside the FED's control. Because of its limited usefulness, he also reports the FED does not target M1, M2 money supply as it once did in determining economic policy. Moreover, a number of recent economic reports that I have read concerning M3, both domestically and elsewhere, also give it little weight with regard to it being an inflation indicator. I mention this not necessarily for the truth of the matter stated, but to present a counterview for your consideration.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 23:41
Roebear @Anewman>(@Anewman):
Mike Sheller: Your 13:02 has restored my faith and I discard my intemperate path, at least till Kitco bash ( or the 4th, or another Black Monday etc. : ) ) . Sometime we gotta talk.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 23:41
Dana Deflation>(Deflation):
Puetz: I believe your bulletins ( reasons to sell stocks now, deflation, and economic/financial contrast ) are brilliant.

Complacency exists among most investors as they are waiting for the traditional spike in rates to bring down the equity markets. Adjusted for inflation, real interest rates are rising right now. The CPI adjusted fed funds rate has increased 135 basis points since the end of Dec/96 and PPI adjusted fed funds rate has increased 275 basis points. Real rates are increasing due to falling inflation.

Top & bottom line earnings disappointments may be what pops the bubble.

Gold will be the asset choice by default.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 23:40
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Nailz - I noticed. This is the one bright spot I can see for gold,
if Mr. Common Man and Mr. Bargain Hunter get the word that
gold is cheap. However, I was disappointed to see that most
articles included a quote that gold was only going lower. Whether
or not this is the case, it kind of puts the kibosh on an immediate
jump. You also need to be checking your city newspaper tomorrow, to see
if it is getting maximum coverage. As I remember from 1993, the main
thrust of the articles at the low were that there was just no interest in gold, not
that everyone was running away screaming. So that too needs to be
toned down for the public to get interested.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 23:34
Patriot @RecallTheBums>(@RecallTheBums):
Scott @theBank: Why wait for the next elections, do you have in AUland a process called Impeachment?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 23:24
ark saltedbre@cheese>(saltedbre@cheese):
LOU@1902: About as long as it took the Roman Empire to
collapse. Could be sooner or later. But it will happen.
In 1980 a couple of sisters out in Burmuda ( ? ) were calling
3000/oz AU. Crazy. No body knows. Its a game. Why do
some people wear hair shirts?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 23:24
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
Scott 22:43 : Nice post.

John 21:43 : While at dinner tonight we were talking about baseball cards.
I can see the correlation between most cars, motorcycles, and baseball cards.
But none of them really are a substitute for anything that has an open
market to trade them ( long&short ) .
Intrinsic vs extrinsic? ( Is that really how they are spelled? ) Without
thinking on it - I would agree with you. I would like to say that gold
does have a long long history of extrinsic factors supporting it though.

Another point we thought of - the market cap for KGJr baseball cards
is $21 billion at the retail level. $21 Billion!! Are you sure you
wouldn't want to short it?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 23:18
Scott @The piss Up>(@The piss Up):
Australian all ordinaries index : 2,679.60 ...... down 33.4 or -1.2%
Australian gold index: 1,173.70 ........ down -101.7 or - 7.9%


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 23:08
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
I'm sorry, but when your government sells you out ( and their vote ) , it really gets to you. His stupidity has cost me thousands and I find it hard to accept the way he anounced the gold dump. I sick of getting up in the morning to find Gold in another freefall. AAAAAAHHHHHHH! I'm going fishing and will try to forget!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 22:58
Este on RSI>(on RSI):
With Gold RSI at 10% we must be scraping bottom here. Short term it will be very difficult to go much lower.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 22:53
Mike Sheller Moon, spoon, swoon, loon>(Moon, spoon, swoon, loon):
RJ: I know, I know, chartz is mumbo jumbo. But I likes MY mumbo JUMBO. Please refer to my 19:53 re silver. I promise no planets, moons, or sofa-shaped rocks are involved.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 22:53
nailz LOTS OF INTEREST TODAY>(LOTS OF INTEREST TODAY):
Anyone besides me notice all the press time and air time the metals got in the media today


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 22:50
Shek sborkowski@dmci.net>(sborkowski@dmci.net):
Scott,
You seem to be taking it very hard! How do you really feel about your glorious leader?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 22:49
Mike Sheller That Sun is hotter than Florida!>(That Sun is hotter than Florida!):
POORBOYS: Thanx! Like RJ feels about silver, I myself can't get enuf of those M Factors! Finally...an inexpensive and efficient way to plot solar proton activity from the GOES sattelites. Just when I got Kabalah figured out, you throw this at me. Bookmarked!

RJ: LESS? Damn, RJ, I was hopin' SOMEONE made money on the long side today. Was bettin' twould be you.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 22:43
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
As an Australian it gives me great pleasure to tell you that I will vote that ass..ole dickhe.d government out of power at the next election! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH what a fu.....ing idiot!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 22:30
vronsky IS GOLD STILL A STORE OF VALUE?>(IS GOLD STILL A STORE OF VALUE?):
International market pundit Milhouse questions common-sense of Australia’s CB selling 2/3s of gold reserves at historically low prices. He foresees higher inflation & money supply - see Guest Guru Milhouse:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 22:30
RJ Been a long day>(Been a long day):
Read my prior: worth LESS than I paid for it. 4.60, 4.53, 4.40, 4.25


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 22:18
Dana Reality Check>(Reality Check):
I just read that the stock market capitalization of Coca Cola + General Electric = the Paris stock exchange. Off the top of my head I believe that France is the world's 5th largest economy.

Talk about knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing.

When this finally comes crashing down gold is going to be the place to be.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 21:55
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
BEYOND UGLY!
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70hr.gif


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 21:55
Anonymous Now lurking>(lurking):
RJ = You have been absolutely one of the best commentors on this site and I therefore appreciate your comments. Now a question in relation to your post of 2026, July 7, 1997, to which I hope I get your answer: When did buy silver?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 21:48
Roebear @GeorgeDickelNo.8>(@GeorgeDickelNo.8):
Milhouse: Thank you for the additional information on silver, I think!
Front: I was going to mention those videos as already discounted, again for the short term. I used to be a photographer, BTW. Usually only drink on Fourth of July, now extended into Black Mondays! Above highly recommended, no shakers of salt, no olives and some of Americas' smoothest. Works great on Bear bites.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 21:43
Poorboys queen@Street>(queen@Street):
Mooney Over the years you are the best.Truth always wins.Please don't be another Cole. I think you are great .Happy Trails.Forgive my spelling I lived at the Colonial Tavern when the Blues was the best..


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 21:40
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Murray: Judging by the latest COT, you may well be correct. The specs are roughly, 14 to 1 net short. ...... You are also correct on another score as well; we do have a front row seat. Although, so far, it has been a sad movie.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 21:36
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
Kuston - Sometimes I don't know the point I'm trying to make either.
You are exactly correct in your recasting of my analysis of the Ken Griffey, Jr.,
UD card ( except for the fact that I don't think Upper Deck is still making
the card today, but I guess I wouldn't put it past them ) . I don't think if you
had 10,000 of Junior's UD rookie cards you could take them to a local dealer and expect him to pay $25 for each of them, but there was a large distributor out of
New York or California that was actively ( probably artificially ) supporting
this price up until they got in trouble for tax fraud or something last year. Still,
subsequent to their legal difficulties, the card has not suffered any decline
in price, if anything, there is a more active market of late because of Junior's performance up until he was injured ( yeah, he's fantastic, but come on, the Mariners still aren't going to win the Series this year, and he's no lock for AL MVP ) . Now
everyone can badmouth cards, in fact everybody does badmouth cards, but
the public perception is that Beckett is the bible and Beckett's party line is that
the public sets the prices. All I know is that when a new card product comes
out, dealers hesitate to buy or sell a high-dollar insert card until it comes out in Beckett ( or take a stab at what Beckett will price it at based on stated odds and
other factors ) and when Beckett comes out, it says that it based its price on
what it saw dealers selling the card for. As far as Junior's UD card, I wouldn't
get too excited about shorting the market. Beckett is not going to change the
price anytime soon, and Junior's rookie card will only get more valuable over time,
because of the public's perception that a player's first appearance on a card
is somehow more valuable than a second-year card or a well-produced card
or a lower production number card.
Anyway, this is far afield of gold and I'm sure other people more knowledgeable
than me about cards will be able to provide 40 counter-examples or tell me that
there are actually only 200,000,000 of Junior's UD rookie cards and they were
on the lower right corner of the sheet and so centering was a problem, etc.
The only reason I brought it up because coin dealers talk about the intrinsic
value of bullion and there really is no intrinsic value - the value is extrinsic,
it is what people will pay for it. The same is similar for cards. Yet people
have no trouble accepting that cards are worthless, after all, they are just
cardboard, you can't eat them, you can't wear them, etc. I was just asking
why the situation is different with gold, and more importantly, if the reason
gold is dropping is exactly because people are asking themselves why
the situation is different with gold ( compared to stocks, thoroughbreds,
classic cars, etc. ) .


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 21:34
NJ Munk>(Munk):
Peter Munk on CNBC Squawk Box tomorrow. http://www.msnbc.com/news/54521.asp


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 21:31
Now anonymous lurking>(lurking):
Vronsky:

I think you may be a genius. Thanks for your 21:21


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 21:29
MURRAY GREED & FEAR INC.>(GREED & FEAR INC.):
Somewhere, a group is watching, waiting to pull the trigger. All the
small shorts are in the sheep pen, and what you will soon see is a
history repeat to the max.
I quit paying attention to any chart years ago, but the thing that has
never failed in predicting the future is human greed, second only to
human fear, and you will soon have a grandstand seat to both.
At this time, it will take less money than most realize to run gold
up rather quickly, and there are those watching right now that have
the capabilities to do so. Some of you know who did in 1993.
These shorts are ripe for the plucking. BELIEVE IT !!!!



Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 21:27
Poorboys Canada>(Canada):
Mike Sheller http://solar.uleth.ca/solar/www/swarm.html Today the 22.11 .My god look at this we can make the 21 century.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 21:25
Shek sborkowski@dmci.net>(sborkowski@dmci.net):
From Charles Crane of Key Asset Management advising their clients ( July newsletter ) about stock market strategy.
... a disciplined value investor must sell into strength when opportunities arise, even if there is no immediate and obvious alternative in which to invest the proceeds. In short, even though the sun is shining today, I know that nasy weather can kick up at the moment's notice, and I am keeping my raincoat on and my umbrella up.
Wouldn't you hate to see weather person talk about stock market when describing tommorow's weather!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 21:22
NJ gold>(gold):
A sight for sore eyes. http://www.ebn.co.uk/HTMFILES/MKTSCOMM.HTML-SSI


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 21:21
vronsky Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL Part - III (7 July 1997) >(Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL Part - III (7 July 1997) ):
JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK & HARD SPOT: Nippons To Dump U.S. Treasuries & Buy GOLD! This report displays the Bank of Japan's ( BOJ ) June 27, 1997 Balance Sheet and a chart of Foreign Central Bank Holdings of U.S. Treasury Bonds versus the S&P 500 Index.

International financial analyst, ORACLE, has expanded on initial findings of Barron’s Randall W. Forsyth ( Barron’s magazine ) and Internet’s Economist George S. Cole. The Land of the Rising Sun is plagued with financial difficulties, choking on U.S. T-Bond indigestion, exacerbated by a pittance gold position, and a must need to reduce excessive dollar exposure to stabilize Yen/Dollar parity. Due to the BOJ’s Balance Sheet and the chart of Foreign Central Bank Holdings of U.S. Treasuries, the website is a little slow to fully load - HOWEVER, I GUARANTEE YOUR PATIENCE WILL BE AMPLY REWARDED -- there is a starling revelation of the relationship of foreign T-Bond purchases and the speculative and relentless rise in the prices of Wall Street stocks.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle707.html


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 21:03
MoreGold @DOWN UNDER in more ways than one>(@DOWN UNDER in more ways than one):
Steve - Perth: Thanks for the articles.
I don't understand one thing though, why is the Australian Gov't out to kill off your Gold industry.
First they sell off 2/3 of the CB Gold that has been saved by your forfathers for $1.8 billion, which in large part causes Australian Gold shares to crash, handing Australian investers a $1.2 billion loss today alone.
Then they talk about imposing a 2.5% royalty on Gold mining.
Somehow I think theres going to be a lot of P-O'ed Australian miners paying visits to their local politicians ....


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 20:59
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
John 19:22 : I hate to respond to your comments since I know nothing
about baseball or card collecting. Please correct me if I misunderstood
your post. You're telling me ( all of Kitco included ) that I could take
1000 or 10,000 baseball cards with Ken Griffey, Jr. picture on it to a
dealer and exchange them for $20,000 or $200,000? Then this guy could
turn around and sell them for $75K or $750K. Also that there are 300
million of these cards available and with more being printed everyday.

Your point is that this market of Ken Griffey, Jr. rookie cards is just
like the gold market. Their value is decided by the perceptions of the
buyer and that these perceptions have no relation to the supply of
either.

Well, if I understand your point correctly - I have no answer.

By the way - Could you point me to the person that will let me short
sell these baseball cards? I see money laying on the ground I would
like to go pick it up.



Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 20:55
Chris Sun Sun 988@aol>(Sun 988@aol):
I understand above ground gold is about 120,000
metric tons. Does anybody have the knowledge about how much gold underground has been discovered and yet to be digged out? This probably will give us a better long term supply and demand picture.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 20:39
vronsky THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)>(THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)):
“Why has the U.S. - fountainhead of antigold sentiment - NOT SOLD any of its gold while encouraging its allies to sell” - Cole’s Market Insights poignant question:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 20:36
arden ardengold@msn.com>(ardengold@msn.com):
To all - This Martian ( see Steve Kaplan's page ) reopened a brokerage account this morning and bought CALLS on ABX. I intended to buy calls on the XAU, but these were too good to pass up. I just wanted you all to know that I do backup my words with my money, even though I am up to my eyeballs in a favorite gold stocks. For the record, at times like this, I have always been right and I have always been early!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 20:34
Lan Man @The numbers are in>(@The numbers are in):
From Steven Jon Kaplans Gold Mining Outlook:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html

As of July 1, 1997, released at 4 p.m. on July 7, 1997, the commitments show commercial insiders long 139,801 ( our favorite Martians ) , short 69,136; speculators long 5,230, short 72,241. The average historic ratio for commercials is 2:3 long to short; for speculators, 2:1 long to short. Therefore, commercials are much more long than usual, and speculators are much more short. These values have become amazingly more bullish over the past two weeks, and are now EXTREMELY BULLISH--and remember, this does not even include the enormous increase in open interest since July 1 when the commitments were tabulated.

Almost forgot, COMEX gold warehouse stocks declined by 2,932 ounces to 847,308 ounces.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 20:34
Miro @forget about short term but where will it end?>(@forget about short term but where will it end?):
Most of people are talking about gold from a short term point of view,
spikes, short trading, catch the upswing to bull market, etc. I am
trying to look at longer trend not so much making money in a short term
but preserving the money I have.
I do believe that history repeats, cycles in market are not dead, and
that gold still can play the role as long solid currency ( though some of
you say that cybercash and paper can do all of that ) . Now, with the
latest developments in stock market, dumping of gold by CBs, record
number of short positions, drop in US$, deflationary trends, reverse in
foreign money inflow into US treasury market, etc. one have to wonder:
Is it possible that some of the actions by the key players and policy
makers may have more destabilizing effect on financial markets than they
originally anticipated? What would be the point when things get really
out of hand and the only way out is significant meltdown and rebuilding
from the scratch?

Can anybody think in those terms? Am I totally out of my mind? Is it
totally unthinkable? Sorry but I don't take we are in the new era for
answer


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 20:31
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Why Australia has got problems. We have no policies...
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970708/feature/feature1.html
We all know it here, it is just that it is only coming out now in the press...


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 20:30
Chris Sun Sun 988@aol>(Sun 988@aol):
I understand above ground gold is about 120,000
metric tons. Does anybody have the knowledge about how much gold underground has been discovered and yet to be digged out? This probably will give us a better long term supply and demand picture.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 20:29
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Australian ( one i ) Reserve Bank shifting assets from one area to another
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970708/invest/invest6.html
Peter Costello, in his fairly typical arrogant manner, when interviewed the other day, said, we haven't sold ALL of the gold, anyway, there are plenty of people in the jewellery industry that want gold!!!!!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 20:26
RJ OOOOOWWWWW>(OOOOOWWWWW):
Most of my silver is worth more than I paid for it. Covered my gold Thursday. Only one thing to do, buy more silver here + sell gold here and anywhere above. I believe in $275 gold now.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 20:25
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Australian Gold Stocks take a Bath
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970708/market/markets4.html


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 20:17
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
Tomorrow morning may be the last time to join the KRY shuttle. We'll see, I guess. : )


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 20:06
Jack @home>(@home):
I have a feeling that silver will be under 4.00 per oz by the end of this week. So why was I buying another 1000 oz today? Small investors were folding today, had to wait in line behind sellers to buy at the local bullion dealer.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 20:05
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Elli @17:35: Gold is not required to maintain efficient trade in a modern economy. ............. Who on this site ever said it was?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 19:57
Miro @MoreGols is not off topic>(@MoreGols is not off topic):
MoreGold: Check out the black and white Martian panorama ..
I did and I did not see any sign of gold in that picture. That
should be a good sign - no more gold coming to market may help ;- )


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 19:53
Mike Sheller Silver Support (?)>(Silver Support (?)):
The long-term silver chart shows a rising support line coming in at roughly 4.09-4.15. This line connects the 1972 bottom and liftoff point, and the double bottoms of '90-92. This is the last-ditch major trendline under silver. No guarantees with these trendlines, but if silver goes below 4.09, it will likely test 3.50 once more. If it holds, we may have seen the worst.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 19:47
MoreGold @off topic>(@off topic):
Check out the black and white Martian panorama ...................................
http://mpfwww.arc.nasa.gov/ops/80881_full.jpg


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 19:45
Donald @Home>(@Home):
IDT: The news reported that the political left had won the election. I thought it might have some future implications on silver mining labor problems.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 19:37
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home):
Donald: I hear something on the news this morning about the top Mexican drug lord dying and that there was now a vacuum left and a power struggle might ensue. Not sure if that is in any way connected. Since drug trafficing and politics are interconnected there it may be related to the Bolsa today. In any event, the guy died reportedly while in surgery having plastic surgery to change his identity. And we thought we were having a bad day.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 19:32
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Jaack: I missed your point the Bosnia's, Northern Irelands, Sud Tyrol, Rwanda's go back 100's of years. They play no part in today's world. If the Ireland situation was settled or carrys on for another 1000 years it would no effect on anything other than the immediate participants.

One result of the new era of communication is the understanding that such regional issues are of no consequence as long as they are contained.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 19:31
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
Well as I stated on Fiday morning today became Black Monday for the precious metals. Gold, Silver & the XAU all got crushed. At this point I believe that the worst for Gold is over. Silver could still go lower as it really has not been going down with gold until recently and it did close very near it's lows, but even then the low is near. The XAU may not go down much more but I do not believe it will go up either, even if gold and silver do rally in the weeks ahead. The XAU is so over-vauled compared to Gold. Like ALOT! The XAU should be under 80 at a minimum. Now as far as gold I would never consider bottom picking it's too dangerious. I thought of buying Oct calls but the volitility premiums are so high I just could not justify it. So there is really nothing to do but wait until Gold has proven the low is in. For thous die-hard traders you could buy gold around on any weakness from here with a stop just under today's lows. I myself am not doing this.
What a day. COMEX started the trading day in a new building. I was wondering if they had the trading floor on CNBC today? Did anyone see a badge AUAG Well for what it's worth I came into today's session short silver. I was more than happy to close the trade out and take profits. It was the most profitable trading day of my life. I hope that no-one reading this was long coming into today's trading. I feel for you and know how it must be. I've had my share, afer all I went long stocks near the close on the friday before Black monday and was forced to sell on the open that monday as the dow opened up down 100. We all endure pain before we succeed, just try and learn from your mistakes and take advantage of the situation next time. Take Care.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 19:28
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MIRO: In a Bull Market they don't like to publicize the bears. Did you see Barton Biggs on CNBC today? He has seen the real world and a bunch of bear markets. He is now down to 53% stocks, 32% Bonds, and went to 15% cash today. He says the Bull is over. When he talks at least I listen. He is a good market player.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 19:26
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Lou: The investment guru's will change their tune once we stop going to their seminars and meetings. Imagine the feelings of the unfortunates who went to New Orleans a couple of months ago.
Anyone seen a claim from any of the guru's that they saw this collapse coming or were the few malcontents who predicted 250 here the only forward viewers of record?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 19:22
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
Elli - I concur, except to point out that there are STILL people on the Bre-X thread who believe there is gold.

The bottom is not in, and people who are buying right now are going against
the very tenet they claim to believe in: Don't buck the trend.

As far as there being a ready supply of baseball cards compared to gold,
this is just hogwash. They are both available in excess, and the number
of cards doesn't determine their value, it is people's perceptions of the
value of a particular card. For example, the '89 Ken Griffey, Jr. rookie card
from Upper Deck is $75 high Beckett and has been for about 6 years.
Generally a dealer would pay you about $20-$35 for one in near mint
condition, which is a reasonable price compared to what he would offer
you for any other Ken Griffey, Jr. rookie card ( nothing ) . This buy price is
also quite stable. This despite the fact that the dealer knows and the person buying it has got to know or will know when he goes to resell it that Upper Deck ran about 300,000,000 of these cards off the presses in 1989 and continued printing them in 1990 and 1991. Why do people pay $50 to $75 for a Ken Griffey, Jr.
card when they know it is readily available? Why would a dealer pay $20-$35
for a card which he knows there are millions of?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 19:21
Crushed Chicken The sky was falling>(The sky was falling):

The sky has fell......THE SKY HAS FELL and I'm one poor chicken.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 19:20
Donald @Home>(@Home):
ELLI: Typo in my last ( should be can't, damn computer problem! )
You have answered your own questions. It pays no interest because there is no risk that it will be inflated. You require interest on paper because there is risk that it will be inflated. We insure it precicely because it is valuable.

During the past 6000 years is has only been the last 64 that it had to be exchanged into paper money for purchasing the things you want. That is a political problem, not a problem with gold. All of us would dearly love to pay our bills with gold. All of the tradespeople would love to receive it in payment.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 19:18
Miro @Day on Dow - mood changing and spin doctors >(@Day on Dow - mood changing and spin doctors ):
It’s interesting to watch opinions about the solid market trend
changing by hours. Is this an indication of coming end?!
At least there is more stability in gold market - it goes down, down,
and down ;- )

10:38 AM EDT: The Dow was up 51 points, or 0.6 percent, at 7946
Monday is seeing ``a little bit of a follow-through, and the market
as been a rolling freight train,'' said Scott Bleier, chief investment
strategist at Prime Charter Ltd.

12:49 PM EDT: The Dow was up 25 points, or 0.3 percent, at 7920
After pushing the Dow up 223 points in the previous three sessions,
buyers picked up Monday where they left off before Friday's U.S.
Independence Day holiday. ``Everybody likes to jump on a winning
bandwagon,'' said Peter Coolidge, senior equity trader at Brean
Murray & Co.

2:40 PM EDT: The Dow industrials dipped 27 points to 7869.
We're seeing some profit-taking here, but for now it appears to be
contained to individual issues rather than the market as a whole,''
said Greg Nie, technical analyst at EVEREN Securities Inc.

5:08 PM EDT: The Dow industrials fell 37 points to close unofficially
at 7858
``The market's entitled to a little rest,'' said Al Goldman, market
analyst at A.G. Edwards and Sons. ``We've had a one-way trip up.''



Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 19:13
Jack The Boom is Predicated on Everyone Doing Well>(The Boom is Predicated on Everyone Doing Well):

The New Era is a lovely concept, but is it achievable in a world made up of Bosnia's, Northern Irelands, Sud Tyrol, Rwanda's and etc, etc.
Here in the USofA hardly no one trusts its government, who lets its firm's ( its owners ) roll around the world at the expense of the financial security of its own people.
No, I am not an Isolationist, but there have to be limits.
The Wall Street Bull will last as long as our government's true owners say it will, then keep an eye peeled in all directions. ( FOR YOUR OWN HEALTH ) .


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 19:05
Donald @Home>(@Home):
ELLI: Here is a short list of things civilization has used for 6000 years for the same purpose they are used for today. All of them remain essential for their same, original, uses. Iron, copper, stone, brick, mortar, rope, gold, silver, fire, clay, sand, water, leather, wood, paper. A computer can replace any of them.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 19:02
Lou 28212@msn.com>(28212@msn.com):
Could someone please direct me to the best site with longest most detailed chart for gold - much appreciated. And I have a question for all - not trying to be sarcastic - but for 10 years now I have been attending investment conferences, and the likes of Jim Dines etc., have been saying any day now that gold would jump in price because of the debt of central banks, that the currencies would crumble, you've heard it all before....so when's it going to happen? When are these guys going to admit they are wrong Any thoughts?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 19:01
MoreGold @CB's: I thought Austarlia sold 164 tons, no its' 184, oh well what's 20 tons between Martians ...>(@CB's: I thought Austarlia sold 164 tons, no its' 184, oh well what's 20 tons between Martians ...):
Gold, at new 12-year low, rapidly loses its luster with investors
6.31 p.m. EDT ( 2231 GMT ) July 7, 1997

NEW YORK ( AP ) — All that's gold does not glitter.

The precious metal's price fell to its lowest level in 12 years Monday, driven down by surprise Australian central bank selling that piled upon years of investor disappointment.

Gold fell $6.10 to close at $318.10 an ounce in New York, down a stunning 64 percent from its high of $875 in January 1980, when hoarding bars or coins was considered a shrewd hedge against runaway inflation and global unrest. It last was at this level in 1985.

Even with its stunning decline from levels above $400 an ounce as recently as early 1996, shoppers won't see bargains when searching for necklaces and rings, said Steve Spivack, a jewelry dealer in Manhattan's diamond district.

The price is not going to be 20 percent less if gold falls 20 percent, because you're not paying for the gold alone. There's also labor and profit margin,'' Spivack said.

He said the biggest discrepancies are found with intricate designs or jewelry made in the United States, both of which have higher labor costs.

Meantime, there have been deserters in the army of investors who had bet on gold.

I think people are throwing in the towel on gold,'' said Robert Brusca, chief economist at Nikko Securities International Inc. Just think if had invested in gold over the last 10 years instead of the stock market. It would've been a disaster.''

Indeed, that same $875 invested in stocks that make up the Standard & Poor's 500 Index would be worth about $7,100 now, not including the dividends those stocks paid.

The latest bad news for gold came Thursday, when Australia's central bank said it had sold two-thirds of its gold reserves, more than 184 tons, earlier this year for an estimated $1.8 billion.

The announcement meant more gold was on the open market, reducing the value of existing holdings, and sparked fears that other countries would follow suit. Gold plunged $7.10 an ounce Thursday, and did not trade Friday in New York because of the holiday weekend.

On Monday, the fallout expanded to other markets. Stocks of big gold producers fell heavily in active trading, with Newmont Mining Co. down $2.43 3/4 to $35.43 3/4, Placer Dome Inc. down $2.25 to $14, and Barrick Gold Corp. down $1.68 3/4 to $20.25.

Prices of other precious metals such as silver, platinum and palladium were led lower by gold's retreat.

Central banks hold an estimated 25 percent of the world's gold, and often use the metal to pay their bills to other countries. But many have been looking for investments with better returns.

Belgium, Canada and the Netherlands were selling gold reserves well before Australia, according to John Nutley if the Gold Institute, a Washington-based trade group.

A number of these central banks started swapping out of gold so they could earn some interest,'' he said. The concern is, who's going to be next?''

Another concern for gold investors is low inflation. When gold hit its peak in early 1980, U.S. inflation had just come off a year of rising 13.3 percent and was on its way to adding an additional 12.5 percent. With world oil prices still on the way up, no one was betting on inflation cooling off.

So far this year, consumer prices have risen at just a 1.4 percent annual rate.

Without the threat of cash investments being eroded by time, individuals lost the motivation to buy gold coins and bars.

Gold isn't easy to hang onto, either. It pays holders no interest and often is expensive to store safely.

According to Cole Fields Mineral Services, a London-based research firm, 187 tons worth of gold coins were in circulation in 1980, compared to just 69 tons today.

But some analysts believe gold could provide a good return to investors if inflation returns.

The prospects for gold are probably better over the next 10 years,'' Nikko Securities' Brusca said. The best of our inflation days are behind us, and that should be better for gold.''

Jewelers have been among the winners in gold's retreat.

The World Gold Council reported last month that world gold production surged 17 percent led by jewelry, which accounts for 45 percent of all output.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 18:58
elli elli@alphalog>(elli@alphalog):
to Donald: I will try to answer your question regarding hard to get
gold - easy to get paper:
Why would anyone want to have gold in the first place? It pays no
annual interest, it costs money to insure, store, if you want to
buy something with it,you would have to exchange it first into
paper money.
Gold hard to get You can buy all the gold you want to have,- with
PAPER MONEY.
It is not hard to get, if you truly want to have some for
some unthinkable reason. .


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 18:55
Prognosticator @Elliottwaves>(@Elliottwaves):
SILVER Making two different calculations using two different sets of data, the silver charts have given a downside target of 395 for the silver futures. I fear that the precious metals have further to go on the downside. Back testing projected targets have yielded very satisfactory results. Real time testing is now proceeding. This is one time that I hope that the projection is wrong. My data base only goes back to early 1993, so lower projections from earlier dates are possible.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 18:51
WW @New England>(@New England):
The argument does not have to do with New Era the fact that is coming up means we are close to a new era but not the New Era of the New Eraists, they are really in the existing/old era. The issue is not paper v. gold but simple Capitalism 101 Gold is under owned and over shorted on leverage/ Financials are over owned and over bought on leverage. Simple/ the New Era will indeed begin someday!!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 18:40
Jack elli>(elli):

Elli: You have great faith in the modern economy. Are you a believer of The New Era, the Wall Street Bull. Remember; they can't print gold and alchemy is not yet perfected. If you feel the way I think, buy paper stocks and hope you make a bundle.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 18:32
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Can anyone give me a reason for the euphoric reaction to the results of the Mexican election? I would have predicted a down day rather than a new top in the Bolsa.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 18:30
Miro @Just keep this in mind>(@Just keep this in mind):
Ouch, after I looked at my portfolio I feel the pain after today’s closing.
On the other hand, I think the following quote is really appropriate for what’s happening:

The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition,
to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that
future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born
in pain.



Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 18:25
nomercy Seasoned experts know better>(Seasoned experts know better):
...Carlyle Dunbar a columnist with Investor's Digest, in leading front page article, of the July 4 edition, ...gold is the ultimate currency he goes on to say, that in the larger picture, gold prices seem to pulling back toward the low of the 1987-1993 drop in prices ( obviously he wrote the column a few days prior to the plunge ..ed ) he continues, Such breakout-pullback events occur occasionally in markets, and offer a second oppurtunity for buying at an ebb point Most investors regard gold and gold mining stocks only as an investment in inflation-proofing a portfolio. But gold is a store of value and the ultimate currency. If the present world market and business expansion ends badly, many investors will want to own gold in some way...
..golds are getting to what Sir John Templeton calls the point of maximum pessimism


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 18:22
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home):
Orpailleur and Millhouse: Thanks for the clarification and to either of you the following question: Does the price supports for silver at 4.29 coincide with his projected support of 313 for gold? In other words, if we break price support of 313 gold to the downside, then we should expect the price support of 4.29 silver to break down as well and we are looking at the 200s for gold and 3.50 for silver. Do I have it?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 18:19
ACW (?):
Gold the political weapon?

What country that has been selling weapons and missiles to the enemies of the west, who's Gold and strategic metals are its principle export industries?

What country recently threatened to sell bonds and buy Gold?

What would bring both of these countries back in line.

The answer to these questions, would be a good reason to push Gold down to below $300 an oz.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 18:18
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
Puetz ( may I call you Steve? ) : I was happy you said deflationary psychology in your 1532 post. For as Opailleur and others keep telling, this is a Clinton/stock/bond/dollar bull phenomenon. Where are there any other signs of deflation? No fear anywhere. Credit spreads are thin and even the Sfr/DM spread is barely off the floor. The purpose of this move is to relieve the bagholders of their heavy bags.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 18:18
vronsky STEVE PUETZ LETTER (July 7, 1997)>(STEVE PUETZ LETTER (July 7, 1997)):
Warning sounds in London, Economic Mess in France, Recessionary Trend in Australia & Financial Crisis in Far-East, ALL BODE ILL FOR U.S. Stocks. Looming Crash heralds Gold & Silver bull market:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 18:17
Prognosticator @Elliottwaves>(@Elliottwaves):
SILVER Making two different calculations using two different sets of data, the silver charts have given a downside target of 395 for the silver futures. I fear that the precious metals have further to go on the downside. Back testing projected targets have yielded very satisfactory results. Real time testing is now proceeding. This is one time that I hope that the projection is wrong. My data base only goes back to early 1993, so lower projections from earlier dates are possible.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:59
WDL @ take heart>(@ take heart):
Group: many EXOGENOUS events are coming to the fore: Bosnian
commitment...Cambodia...the Middle East...Mexico....Washington campaign hearings...Japanese trade imbalance... ( to name a few ) ...
the worm is turning...AND I believe this bodes well for gold...Remember..
it's in the early morning hours before the sunrise the the night is most dark.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:57
Doc Duke Albuquirky>(Albuquirky):
roger: The answer to questions about any subject with a relatively
unique name, such as El Nino ( never mind how to get the ny out of
our keyboards ) , is to go to a web search engine. My favorite is
Alta Vista ( http://204.123.2.69/cgi-bin/query ) and present the problem
to it. The answer to the el nino query yielded 4000 hits, of which
the leading few are:

Secondary effects of El Nino
The Secondary Effects of el Niño-Southern Oscillation on the Corals of the Pacific. The corals in all regions of the Pacific are
affected by a...
http://www.wesleyan.edu/libr/scourse/elnino/2nd.htm - size 2K - 26.Jun.95 - English

NOAA/PMEL/TAO El Nino Theme Page - Current El Nino ( ENSO ) Forecasts
U.S.Dept of Commerce / NOAA / PMEL / TAO. This theme page demonstrates how El Nino related data from distributed
research institutes may be accessed...
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/el-nino/forecasts.html - size 3K - 4.Mar.97 - English

NOAA/PMEL/TAO El Nino Theme Page
U.S.Dept of Commerce / NOAA / PMEL / TAO Project Office. El Nino Theme Page: Impacts of El Nino and Benefits of El
Nino Predicton. Table of Contents....
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/el-nino/impacts.html - size 15K - 21.Jan.97 - English

IOS - El Nino information pages
The El Niño. How does it work, and how does it affect the coast of B.C.? The following are a series of short articles about the El
Niño...
http://www.ios.bc.ca/ios/sos/elnino/welcome.htm - size 3K - 21.May.97 - English

El Nino Working Group
WELCOME TO EL NIÑO HOMEPAGE FROM WESLEYAN UNIVERSITY!! Our goal is to provide a space where
information about el Niño can be obtained. Some..
http://www.wesleyan.edu/libr/scourse/elnino/elnino.htm - size 1K - 26.Jun.95 - English

Note that it even ( luckily ) gives one specialized enough to discuss
the effect on the coast of B.C.! Hope this helps.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:54
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
The combined speculative position in gold and silver futures hit 55,000 contracts short -- a record short-position. In view of activity this past week, the combined short could now be as high as 70,000 contracts.

Other large short positions in gold and silver were -- 43,000 short on January 19, 1997 and 38,500 contracts short on February 28, 1985. Both were just before large rallies began.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:52
Donald @Home>(@Home):
ELLI: Technically you are correct. The problem you have is human nature. In your computer just answer me one question. Who gets to program the computer? Paper would work just as good as gold if it was just as hard to get as gold.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:49
nomercy Patience is a virtue>(Patience is a virtue):
...Don't panic and be patient, Royal Oak Mines, Margaret Witte, tells Shareholders...and you'll be rewarded...expects gold to rebound...
Panic situations creates bargains...
http://www.newsalert.com/free/story?StoryId=Cm8bPWb8ZtJa3ntm3mJKZ&FQ=gold&Query=gold


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:46
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Lurker: Gold and silver are not collectibles, they are money. Please post your e-mail address so I can reply further.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:45
6pak Buyer beware @ Investor Responsible >(Buyer beware @ Investor Responsible ):
Bre-X suit targets brokers' NET advice. ( July 05 1997 )

http://www.canoe.ca/FP/jul5_brexsuitta.html


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:45
Orpailleur 100716.1305@compuserve.com>(100716.1305@compuserve.com):
IDT: My summary on Gold Eagle didn't focus enough on silver, sorry for this confusion, it should have been clearer in respect to this, but while summarizing 2 hours of lecture I couldn't get into each and every point. Checking back my notes, here's what Armstrong said precisely: Silver must first go down to $4.25, $3.25 or $2.83/oz. Only then it will be cleaned out for a rise which will take it to $18 after some difficulties at $10-12/oz.
In his latest writings, supports have moved to 4.29 and 3.50. He seems quite convinced that silver has to take out the support of 3.50 ( that is, going below this level ) in order to enter a true bull market where it has any chance to challenge the high of '80.
All: The present bear in gold looks quite ugly, indeed, when gold is expressed in US$. However, since the LMBA announcement in January we know that gold is used as a currency by some major economic agents, leading to daily transactions of several bln. Dollars in London. When LMBA announced these figures, they even ridiculized the 300 tons of gold the CB of the Netherlands just sold, stating that it was far less than one days business. The Aussie sale is even smaller, and follows the same reasoning of gold as a currency, yielding less than the US$. The difference with the Netherland's CB sale is the media coverage and the way this banal fact of Oz-sale is used to scare the hell out of the few goldbugs left over.
Back to Armstrong: he sees some support in gold at $313. If this support breaks, the bear is likely to last until '98, most likely June/July '98 with a low in the range of $250-275, or even an extreme low of $224-230. THAT IS, IN US$, once again. Now, lets take a look on the DM/US$ ratio: Given the uncertainties regarding the Euro, according to Armstrong, the DM/$ ratio, at present at 1.75, could break out to the upside at 1.92-2.00, and even up to 2.56. A simple calculation of the price of gold in DM/oz. at these extreme valuations of DM/US$ ( 2,56 ) and gold/oz ( $225/oz. ) , if they happen together, takes us to DM 576/oz. which is approximately the price of gold today.
We shouldn't forget that gold is a currency, the hardest one over long term. But if we want to see the hard facts, we have to take off our $-glasses.



Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:45
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SHEK: In 1932 they fought it by sending in the troops, under the command of General McArthur, to tear down the Hooverville that protesters had built on Anacostia Island in the Potomac River. They changed the price of gold from $20.67 to $35.00, doubling the monetary base. The money piled up in the banks. The banks were terrified to lend it to anyone, there were few qualified borrowers anyway. Reserves in the banks shot up to 86% at one point. That is, $86 on deposit for every $100 loaned out. Today it is less than $7. They tried price supports to keep farm prices from falling. They started the WPA, trying to get people back to work on road and bridge construction etc. That was an attempt to get some cash circulating. Everything they tried failed until the war came along and men went into the military services and war production got going.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:42
nomercy it's going to get better>(it's going to get better):
...some analysts said the price of gold has dropped so low that nearly 60 % of the world's gold miners are in the position of producing at a loss...
http://www.newsalert.com/free/story?StoryId=Cm8bPWb8ZtJa3ntG1nti&FQ=gold&Query=gold


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:39
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net):
JW--The thought is to buy the dips in an up trending market and sell the rallys in a down trending market. By most objective measurements gold and gold stocks are trending down.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:37
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Strad Master: my e-mail address is bpuetz@holli.com


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:35
Elli Elli@alphalog>(Elli@alphalog):
General comment to all: It is truly amazing with which tenacity
some of the gold speculators cling to the belief that the yellow
metal will make them somehow rich. It reminds me of the recent
speculative fever with which Bre-X shares were traded.
The believers maintained until the final end that gold is in them
hills around Busang. The were constantly dreaming new and different scenarios and rational ideas why they must be believed.--
Gold is not required to maintain efficient trade in a modern economy.



Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:28
Donald @Home>(@Home):
I think that the Dow-Gold ratio handled itself well today. Opened at 24.67 ounces, reached 25.06 ounces at about 10:30 NY time, did a screeching U-turn, and closed at 24.66 ounces. That strategy could have made you a tiny profit today. Hard to tell if 25.06 is the top of the Dow but it sure feels close about here.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:09
Shek sborkowski@dmci.net>(sborkowski@dmci.net):
Steve Puetz,
In a deflationary scenerio the US government has a lot to loose. In your opinion, how will they fight it?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:07
Bob @...acquire junior reserves or buy physical gold and close short positions>(@...acquire junior reserves or buy physical gold and close short positions):
Earl: I agree that its a zero-sum decision - you either buy gold or buy a junior's reserve and wait out the market. I suggested that the Big Boys step in to support gold prices - instead of buying cheap reserves - because the price is too low from a cost perspective. The industry could not afford a stable gold price range below average cost.

The decision is whether to blow the wallet on cheap acquisitions or to strategically blow-away the speculative shorts that now command the gold market.

I own BGO and I prefer to stall an acquisition of Cerro Casale at these prices in favour of shoring up gold prices. It's a shame to see one of the world's largest gold/copper finds hussled by a Big Boy for chump change as a result of recent CB inspired decline in the speculative ( monetary ) value of gold.

The bright side of the stroy is that if gold price drops much more BGO may become a copper play instead ;- )

( 5 billion pounds of copper at Cerro Casale. )

Cheers


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:00
nomercy greed is going to catch up to them>(greed is going to catch up to them):
..greed...the ultimate punishment...
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/cmxsf.htm


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 17:00
bw Gold:>(Gold:):
Forget inflation/deflation what we have here is panic. Panic is just what you need if you want to invest 50-100 billion dollars in the small gold market. The volume in the gold shares will tell the story. Some one is buying every share sold. Guess who? They place their orders under the market and make the market come to them. As GSC says when the stocks refuse to follow bullion down they will have to be content with what they have flushed. At that time they will stop selling the physicals. Of course by now they have quite a few customers selling for them! So I guess when they have bought most of the stocks it may be over. We are seeing a first class operation. Its not for nothing that these people have lots of dough ( and friends in high places ) . In any case I believe below 300 enough little players may be entering the long side ( cash only please ) to make downward progress difficult even for these guys. But then again, maybe not!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 16:49
jw jw@hope>(jw@hope):
All the stk mkt pundits advise buying the dips. we should follow their
advise about now


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 16:48
ezau swami@sag.tar>(swami@sag.tar):
Well, maybe this will cheer you up. My doleful contributions
can be used as a contra-indicator. ( I had a vision of gold
going up last week or so ) . Now, after being long for over
a year and a half and Abx saying their operating costs are
around $200/oz. I'm thinking I should pick up my long
position and stand aside and wait for the up trend to prove
out per the privateer letter. I'm glad I don't do this
for a living. I'd be in the poor house.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 16:38
bw Silver:>(Silver:):
ted butler: Well we got our bullish commitments of traders report in silver. As of the first the silver commercials were about as light net short as they have been in several years. Looks like this flush caught them too. If they have covered more here ( my guess is they are covering today ) silver should be in good shape.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 16:20
lurker san fran>(san fran):
Puetz ( sp? ) Surely you jest. Your last two statements are contradictory to each other as gold and silver ARE collectables almost as much as any other collectables. Are the Martians also landing next week


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 16:19
Strad Master Strad1@idt.net>(Strad1@idt.net):
STEVE PUETZ: Thanks for your explanation. It clears up a lot. Related to that, I have a specific question for you but don't want to pose it here. My e-mail is posted above. I'd appreciate it if either you'd post yours or, if you prefer, e-mail me so I can contact you directly. Many thanks.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 16:17
2weeks What_is_an_analyst?>(What_is_an_analyst?):
Down 6% ( PM stocks ) is _not_ a meltdown. The Dow was down 25% in a day, and regained itself ere long. What forces can bring back the price of gold? Who knows - if the other CBs do not sell ( which they may not ) , demand continues, and output drops, it is very reasonable to think that $400 may be reached before winter.

Nooone can predict the future. That is why they are not called predicters.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 16:17
roger roger.budgell@canada.cdev.com>(roger.budgell@canada.cdev.com):
trader ed : Is there a link or a place where i can find out more re the changing el nino. I live in Calgary,Ab and the last winter was unbearable. I would like to know to expect.

The last el nino brought us 20% interest rates, precious metals sky rocketted, house prices doubled, etc,etc,etc. Anyone care to pursue what will occur this time around. Trader ed the 'e' address is authenic so please feel free to provide me any info you may have.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 16:08
Puetz @ Deflation>(@ Deflation):
Strad Master: Rising bankruptcies, slower credit-growth, falling PPI, falling commodity prices, falling retail sales -- they are all sign of an emerging deflation. The deflationary process destroyers anyone with debt. That's the opposite of inflation -- which helps debtors.

The greatest bear markets will be in those areas that are the most leveraged today. Gold, silver, and mining shares are probably one of the areas of least leverage. In fact, after today, the majority of speculators may be cleaned out of the metals. Hence, they are in a bottoming process.

In general, the stock market is the most leveraged area. Look for a near-total wipe-out in stocks -- the DJIA will fall to 300 as dividends are cut, as earnings turn to losses, and as corporate bankruptcies climb.

Real estate is also heavily mortgaged. Commercial and residental prices will fall up to 90% from present levels.

Collectables will also fall in value. They have no value for day-to-day living -- which will be the struggle in the upcoming years.

Gold and silver coins will not be hurt be the collapsing credit structure. In fact, they should benefit as investors seek out safe haven for their money. For investors wanting to escape our collapsing financial structure, gold and silver will be the only alternative.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 16:07
MoreGold @Mine closings>(@Mine closings):
panda: I have been comenting for weeks about mine closings if the price dips below @330. and holds.
Already one mine closing in SA.
If the low prices hold, I take it to mean that the CB's are continuing
to liquidate Gold ( secrectly ) at the expense of miners.
Personally im happy to see a shakeout starting.
I would rather have this than Gold stagnating at 340. for many years.
IMHO, the CB's are the main manipulators of Gold and if they remove themselves from the equation, we can get back to the real supply/demand
market forces, which will take the price higher.
It's the old short term pain for long term gain.

Mooney, guess we Martians think alike...


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 16:00
Donald @Home>(@Home):
ALL: In the 1930's we entered a period of competing currency devaluations, mostly
done for trade purposes. When England devalued in 1931? ( can't remember the exact date )
there was the dollar, backed by gold, to take the role of the international trade currrency. We
have held that role since 1931 and still hold it.

My reason for bringing up this bit of history is to make the comparison to today. There is no
country with a substantial currency to take the international role today. If the dollar goes down
the tubes today, next week, or whenever, only gold or barter remains. That is why we are in a
much more dangerous situation than the 30's. International trade has become absolutely
essential to most of the world. Gold is the only world class currency left. Repeat ot 7:59 Post


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:58
yellowdog @hurting>(@hurting):
I guess that Fed letter that came out suggesting the all CB's sell all their gold had a few takers!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:53
yellowdog @hurting>(@hurting):
So this is what a 'crash' feels like. OUCH!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:51
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Bob: If the major hedgers begin to reverse course, it would seem to me that it would have major impact on some of the stocks awaiting takeover. BGO comes to mind most prominently. Cash used to rescue the market would not be available for aquisitions, exploration and such. ...... Although it could be argued that subsequent stock appreciation would again make aquisitions feasible. ..... Like everything related to GC, it's a tough call. JUst a thought.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:49
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Bob M: Remind me. What were the 2 major conflicts that might have erupted in the '70s?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:48
Strad Master Deflation?>(Deflation?):
STEVE PUETZ: I may have missed it in the past but would you mind encapsulating your views about what would happen to the economy and various investment vehicles ( metals, stocks, real estate, artistic collectables, etc. ) in the event of the deflation you envision. I'm sure many here would appreciate that information. Anyone else have comments, too?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:47
panda @?>(@?):
Per my previous post, has anyone read this?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/07/drfny_egm_1.html

Are there no comments from anyone on the CBs letting the mines go to 'ruin'?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:46
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
Mooney- the last time central banks sold in earnest in the 70s was a completely different situation than today. We were clearly in a wartime economy then ( military spending ) with 2 major conflicts potentially erupting, and most importantly,a powerless presidency that slashed our military and denegrated their morale. Today, the world is 180 degree turnaround nearly. The central banks know that their is going to be a massive debt liquidation and when there is, metals are the easiest asset for people to sell so thus the price drops when they need to raise funds. Did anyone stop to think that the buyers of these metals are probably individuals rathet than large firms or investors. A perfect scenario for them to get burned in the upcoming price drop as thery panic to raise funds to meet their bills. Then the central banks will move in and scoop up the gold at bargain basement prices. At that point is when they will consider relinking gold to currency at the lower level. The little guy always get burned
Puetz- anytime you can buy gold under a $1000 its a bargain? Thats been true since 1980...dream on!!!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:43
panda @>(@):
Thoughts on the LBMA anyone? How do they fit in here? I feel that we are caught in the battle between titans here. Comments?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:38
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Leonard @13:42: You have a triple since Dec. .... Consider that all of the good news is priced in. ..... Don't forget the old adage: Buy the rumor. Sell the news. ...... RYO '93, BGO Aug. '96.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:36
Tortfeasor Wow>(Wow):
It looks like the only thing up at this hour is soybeans, which has already had its total threshing last week so to speak. I just drove through the wheat and corn fields of Nebraska this past weekend. I can't help but wonder how those farmers are taking getting their butts kicked at harvest time with wheat and corn selling at the prices they are while all around them people with paper are making money without putting out much energy in the process. If the farmers quit producing, it would not take long for people to realize where real value is. Gold is real but wheat, corn and soybeans are more than real, verily essential; yet all around us we surrounded with paper experts; every day more people become experts as the DOW rises to the point where the wax on its wings will melt under the hot sun and the persons riding its precarious back will crash to earth with nothing but lifeless feathers and a hard earned lesson. Unfortunately, I have learned big time over the past several months. I think I am going to stick with hard product instead of paper gold in the future. At least Uncle Sam will eat some of this come tax time.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:32
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
DEFLATION continues to rear its ugly head. CRB index has crashed again today @ 232.18, off 3.39 points. That's the lowest level in over 2 years. It seems the precious metals are getting caught in this deflationary psychology. For gold and silver, all the signs of panic and capitulation are emerging.

The weekly sentiment poll in down to 20% bulls -- the lowest of the 1990s. Maybe it's an all-time low. Margin calls are flying. Speculators are giving up. Volume is heavy.

Watch for a gap-up opening tomorrow morning. If that happens, gold will be set up to make an island-reversal bottom. It has frequently done so in the past.

At the same time, the stock market is in the process of making a hook-reversal to the down-side today. After being up nearly 60 points early in the day, the DJIA is now down 65 points. The stock market investors may finally be recognizing the deflationary threat and the associated negative impact to earnings.

As George Cole has stated, it will probabbly take a down-turn in stocks to get gold to move higher. It's very possible those reversals are occurring today.

Under current financial conditions, anytime you can buy gold for under $1000, you have made a bargain deal. The shake-out today, once again, shows the dangers of buying on leverage. Those getting cleaned out of the market today are mostly speculators. I doubt that those who have purchased goin and silver coins ( and probably not leveraged ) are still in the market today.





Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:31
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
John @14:51: The money exiting gold & gold equities is but a tiny fraction of what's needed to fuel the general equities market. Buying KO would cost more than buying all the gold mining companies.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:30
Larryn larryn@ix.netcom.com>(larryn@ix.netcom.com):
Portfolio manager Radsch of Lexington Goldfund ( LEXMX ) says on CNBC that selling now is not smart. The faint-hearted are already out. He likes silver over gold. Silver down 28 cents. 16 of 17 commodities in the CRB index are down today. It is not just gold. 30 year US bond is up, rate down to 6.56. The market sees no inflation, but signs point toward possible deflation.

The depression in 1929-35 proved that a depression is a bad thing, so I'm sure that Rubin and Co will react eventually to prevent it by increased govt spending. This will in effect place a bottom on commodity prices due to dollar inflating.

Almost all gold funds are at yearly lows, which is to be expected.
http://www.eaglewing.com.

The Toronto Gold Index is down -380 ( very unusual ) and Johannesburg gold index is down -80 ( very unusual ) . London gold down -14.55 today ( also unusually large drop ) . Meanwhile, numbers point out an extremely oversold condition and we are ripe for a short term rally, probably in the next three days. However, I don't try to catch a falling knife; I wait until it sticks into the table and stops falling. Any such rally could be very short lived or it could be the big reversal. Your guess is as good as mine.



Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:27
Mooney @MoreGold@14:51>(@MoreGold@14:51):
MoreGold - Didn't I tell ya before; Mooney's are part Martian!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:15
Bob @...GSC>(@...GSC):
Thanks....afterall ( as we know ) , what's good for DeBeers and the diamond trade should also work for gold... if only the Big Boys decided to defedn their shareholders best interests.

I guess Peter Munk is more interested in his real estate holdings than the golden goose.

Cheers


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:15
panda @>(@):
What a divergence, Dow down 62 while bonds rallied. Yikes! Oh, and gold fell too.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:12
Bob A opinion>(opinion):
I guess the Aussies have stopped selling or they would have kept quiet


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 15:06
ACW (?):
If the XAU finishes off around -8.00, that is the equivilant of a Dow drop of -720 points.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:55
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net):
John: Cash.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:51
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

For the people getting out of gold and gold stocks today, where is that
money going? Is this really the end of the Dow bull?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:51
MoreGold @ ``It's very, very bad news. They are calling it down to below $300 (an ounce) and if it does go to that, there will be only three, four or maybe five mines in South Africa,'' said Leon Esterhuizen>(@ ``It's very, very bad news. They are calling it down to below $300 (an ounce) and if it does go to that, there will be only three, four or maybe five mines in South Africa,'' said Leon Esterhuizen):
Monday July 7 12:38 PM EDT

Gold sinks to 12-year low; jittery speculators rush to sell

NEW YORK ( Reuter ) - Gold sank to fresh 12-year lows Monday in a wave of selling by speculators frustrated at the
market's inability to hold its ground, and the price collapse is starting to take its toll on the mining industry.

In active trading, the August gold futures contract was off $5.30 to $319.90 an ounce on New York's Commodity
Exchange, a level unseen since 1985.

Gold has fallen 13 percent, or $50 an ounce, so far this year under continued selling by central banks.

The latest plunge came after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced Thursday that it had sold 167 metric tons of gold
from its reserves.

The sale of 60 percent of the Australian central bank's gold hoard sent an especially bearish signal to speculators because
Australia is the third largest producer -- at 289 tons last year -- after South Africa and the United States.

Market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, however, and traders are forecasting the price could slump to $300 or
lower.

In London, spot gold briefly dropped to $313.90 an ounce, compared with Friday's London close of $324.25/324.75
when the New York market was closed for the Independence Day holiday.

But a modicum of support was evident at $315.00 an ounce, and speculators who had bet on a bigger drop bought back
some of their gold.

As a result London gold was fixed barely changed at $318.00 an ounce vs. $318.75 during the Monday morning fixing
session.

``The New York market opened way below where it closed ( on Thursday ) , so the first thing people did was get out,''
said a London-based dealer. ``There is some support at $315, but it's hard to tell how much -- we haven't seen these
levels for 12 years.''

The stocks of mining companies were also hard hit, and the category was the worst performing group on the stock
exchange.

Barrick Gold Corp. fell $2.44, or 11 percent, to $19.50; Newmont Mining Corp. lost $2.25 to $35.625;Homestake
Mining Co. was off 62.5 cents to $12.375 and Echo Bay Mines lost 56 cents to $5.25.

The collapse began to take its toll on the mining industry when one South African mine was shut because prices are so
low. South Africa's East Rand Proprietary Mines said it would halt work at its Benoni Gold Mining Co. Ltd.

``It's very, very bad news. They are calling it down to below $300 ( an ounce ) and if it does go to that, there will be only
three, four or maybe five mines in South Africa,'' said Leon Esterhuizen, an analyst at Societe Generale Frankel Pollak.

But analysts were wary of predicting a solid rebound.

``It would take a Martian to be bullish at this point,'' said Andy Smith, who tracks precious metals for Union Bank of
Switzerland.

Some dealers say gold could fall to the 1985 low of $287.25, which they say could be reached shortly on fears that other
central banks might unload some of the 35,000 tons of gold that are held by government institutions around the globe.

Gold sank back in 1985 in tandem with a collapse in the price of oil.

Bullion had tracked oil higher, to reach a record $850 an ounce early in 1980, when it was seen as an investor refuge
from the inflation that had been triggered by the OPEC oil ``shocks'' of the 1970s.

...... Guess we must have some Martian heratige ......


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:50
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
This market remindes me of Barton Biggs quoting an old Japanese proverb in Barrons,

The fools are dancing but the bigger fools are watching





Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:46
2weeks In_perspective>(In_perspective):
PM stocks down an average of 7% across the board. Not quite a meltdown.
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/gldnslvrt.html?source=blq/usawww


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:37
Newoldperson canada>(canada):
Donald: BGO last 7.15 Can, -0.75, 12.26pm, volume about 530,000. See
http://webservices.pcquote.com/cgi-bin/trclient.exe


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:34
General futures players>(futures players):
To those unfortunate bulls who are long on gold contracts,
I quote the famous philosopher of our time, Mr. T:

Ah piddy da fools! Believe me, I learned the futures lesson
the hard way. At least with the physicals and stocks we can hold
onto them for the long haul ( Unless of course the companies go
totally bust. ) Whatever you do, don't sell now! If you have the
kahones ( which I don't ) , dollar-cost average at this point with
metals and/or their stocks, but at the least keep what you got,
save your cash, and look for a final bull confirmation before
getting back on the train.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:31
Mooney @Bart.Chart>(@Bart.Chart):
Bart - Silver is off your chart!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:28
NJ parrots>(parrots):
Tortfeasor : Your 10 :51. Can your man do a service call to help with some parrots on this site.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:27
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
This is a good one!
The only man who can change his mind is the man who has one.
------Edward Noyes Westcott.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:24
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Bema Gold selling at US$5.06, at or below book value. There are no Canadian quotes for Bema. Does anyone know why?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:24
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net):
Well, there's misery for all today. A lot of other real stuff is tanking this afternoon...take a look at a grain chart...Ouch!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:22
Mooney @Bob.M>(@Bob.M):
Bob - Re: - Your 13:15. WRONG! Each CB that has sold has done so for very personal reasons special to their own country's situation ( eg. Australia ) . When gold was going up in the Seventies for a number of years was it because the CB's were so omniscient that they were selling? ( ie. - Did they sell because they KNEW the price was going down? If so they made a big mistake at that time because the price kept going up! ) Give it some thought and you'll realise that you did engage your mind before you put your mouth in gear. ( Don't worry - Everybody does it sometimes, me included, like right now maybe? :- ) )


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:20
Bob A misery loves co.>(misery loves co.):
For what it's worth two letter writers, Dessauer and Leeb both recently recommended gold stks. Dessauer bought PDG and Leeb said he liked some of the mutual golds. Both b4 the crash last and this wk.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:13
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MIKE SHELLER: I too am surprised at silver. I had expected it would hold up better. The fundamentals are there. They are selling silver along with gold just in case.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:12
MoreGold @Think I should change my name ... >(@Think I should change my name ... ):
YOW!!! Silver 4.26 !!!
Dow is now down 6.
PM's may be doing bad but the dow doesn't exactly smell like spring flowers.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:10
NJ Parrots>(Parrots):
Great story-Tortfeasor 10:51. Rubin is the man and Greenspan the parrot.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:10
Lurker2 @July 7 close>(@July 7 close):

More fireworks in store or have the markets stabilized for the day?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 14:05
Donald @Home>(@Home):
So far today the worst Dow to Gold ratio has been 25.06 ounces.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 13:57
Front Stocks down worse ....>(Stocks down worse ....):

For those of you following the debackle today, Getchell Gold ( GGO ) is down over 13% and Orvana Minerals ( T.ORV ) is down over 12% . And they're the bigger companies as well. Vancouver looks like hell on the small caps! Ah well, think of all the shares we can buy when it actually starts going the other way. More bang for the buck eh! ( even if it's only worth 72 cents haha )


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 13:42
leonard rderkach@mb.sympatico.ca>(rderkach@mb.sympatico.ca):
anybody have any interest in Crystallex ( kry.t ) aabout the only gold stock
going up. Possibly tomorrow will be the day the 4th court ruling infavour
of kry and kry takes property away from Placer Dome. Have been watching and buying kry dec. it was 1.90 and now 7.15. If tomorrow the ven. court
gives the decision in favour of kry the stock only has one way to go...up


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 13:40
Coloma Kid burro@panama.gulf.net>(burro@panama.gulf.net):
It is most curious to me that today I heard Australia has dumped 167 metric tons of gold over the past 6 months. And those on this list
say don't question the banks - they know the price is going lower.
My dilemma - Who's buying and why? This whole thing doesn't pass the
stink test.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 13:40
George Cole bulls and bears>(bulls and bears):
This is how bear markets END, not how they begin. Prices fall at a modest pace for many months, then we get a final brutal selling climax to flush out the last of the longs. I reiterate than nobody knows where the bottom will be. But there is little doubt we will get there very soon. And believe it or not this brutal bear will be followed by a powerful bull.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 13:39
Japan interesting>(interesting):
Japan
TPX TOPIX INDEX ( TOKYO ) 1497.10 -18.07 -1.19
NKY NIKKEI 225 INDEX 19705.17 -262.83 -1.32
NEY NIKKEI 300 INDEX 289.71 -3.84 -1.31
NK5 NIKKEI 500 1334.22 -9.87 -.73
JSDA ASDAQ: STOCK INDEX 43.76 -.50 -1.13
TSMKOTC JAPAN STOCK MKT NIKKEI OTC 1195.26 -9.87 -.81
TSE2 TSE2 TOPIX 2ND SECT INDX 1807.08 -18.62 -1.02


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 13:30
George s. Cole volume>(volume):
We certainly are seeing enormous gold stock volume today. A necessary but not sufficient condition for a selling climax. But encouraging.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 13:24
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
Front:
a '73 ZL1!! WOW! I've only seen 1 - didn't get to ride it. Yes, a ZL1
is as golden as it gets. My grandfather used to own an Indian shop, you
can't count how many times I've wished he would of saved a couple of
them. I'll sell gold before I sell Mr. MAX.

Is it normal that the OZ's gold producers make public statements through
an outside organization? I'd be yelling, screaming, taking ads out in
paper, calling my senator, I'd be doing something if the central bank
cut my industry off at the knees. Yet, we hear nothing from them first
hand.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 13:21
panda @interesting>(@interesting):
Read the last paragraph. Very interesting!
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/07/drfny_egm_1.html


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 13:15
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
The reason the central banks have been dumping gold is that they know that the price of gold is going to drop subatantially lower and they are cashing in now. Look at info for what it is at face value, the cental bankers are in the know, dont try to analyze too deeply what they are doing.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 13:12
So'ham ( Gold's Production Costs)>(( Gold's Production Costs)):
To Selby ( Toronto ) : Belated thanks for your explanation. To add more confusion, today's ( 7/7/97 ) Australian Financial Review says, In Australia, which has the highest average gold production costs in the world at $US358/oz ...


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 13:10
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
GFD/kuston: In the recent past, someone posted a comment about the actions of market makers and how they adjust their book. To the effect that accumulating inventory is done by sharply reducing the price and inducing weak hands to sell. ... Shaking the tree, if you will. I believe it fits in with your comments this morning.

Also, after looking ( staring ) at the long term gold chart, I believe there is a strong case to be made that 320 will contain this downmove. Although it did hit 280 in 1985, that level was reached after coming down from 520. Such is not the case this time. To break 320 would wipe out a low of almost 20 years standing. Platinum and the Yen may provide some additional support as well. .... In short, I really do believe 320 is the bottom but only the foolish would be willing to bet on it.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 13:08
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
To All Blyvy Holders
Business Day announced today that Durban Deep,
Blyvoor and Buffels were reviewing the ratios for their
merger. It seems the Buffels shareholders blocked the
deal when the gold price fell. I assume the ratios will
be improved - they had been one DD for 1.3 buffels and
one DD for 5 blyvoor ( ADR is 3 Blyvoor ) . You may recall
that I said this rumour had been around for the past
few weeks.
A small victory in what has been generally speaking
a losing war.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 13:07
vronsky Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - III (7 July 1997) >(Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - III (7 July 1997) ):
JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK & HARD SPOT: To Dump U.S. Treasuries & Buy GOLD! ( PART - III ) . BOJ’s June 27 Balance Sheet & Foreign Central Bank Holdings of T-Bonds:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle707.html>http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle707.html

Oracle has expanded on initial findings of Barron’s Randall W. Forsyth and Internet’s Economist George S. Cole. Land of the Rising Sun plagued with financial difficulties, choking on T-Bond indigestion, exacerbated by a pittance gold position, must reduce excessive dollar exposure to stabilize Yen parity. Due to the BOJ’s Balance Sheet & chart of Foreign Central Bank Holdings of Treasuries, the website is a little slow to fully load - HOWEVER, I GUARANTEE YOUR PATIENCE WILL BE AMPLY REWARDED:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle707.html


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 13:06
Westboy @USA vs. Japan>(@USA vs. Japan):
I agree with those who have posted a possible connection between the current decline in gold prices to Hashimoto's comment to sell bonds and buy gold. We have some serious muscle flexing going on here between two of the world's most powerful financial countries. The economic war has begun.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 13:04
Mike Sheller SOUNDS good>(SOUNDS good):
REIFY: What's a bloody Bloody Amry? And how do I mix one?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 13:02
Mike Sheller incoming!!!>(incoming!!!):
2 WEEKS: Methinks you don't give the pagans enough credit. They KNEW the sun would wax again. Why do you think that that famous religious figure you mention resurrected at the Vernal Equinox. That is when the equally balanced forces of light and dark give way to the ascendancy of the light OVER the dark. Aries ain't called the lamb for nothing. Unfortunately, Saturn now conjuncting NYSE Moon is not doing for silver what it did the last time it did so in '68. Ya win some, ya lose some. The planets DO bring action, but it's often presumptuous to guess what kind. In any event, it is hoped that your sunlight low point analogy for gold is apt. Merry Christmas to you too! You should have more periods with time on your hands.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 12:55
KAP'NKEV kevin56@worldnet.att.net>(kevin56@worldnet.att.net):
Hold onto youre shorts, it don't get any better than this!!!
HI YA Gang.......IM BACK


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 12:41
GFD The Zinc Scenario>(The Zinc Scenario):
kuston: Your 02:30 post should be read by everyone! I have been thinking along the same lines myself over the last few days.

A while ago DA mentioned that when zinc slumped a while ago the drop was aggravated by a lot of inventory reduction in zinc even though the price was dropping. He speculated that even though dumping inventory would only worsen the price ( just like the Australians ) commerical holders of zinc basically decided to cut their inventory losses and clean up the books.

Suppose, as you point out, this plunge is an attempt to shake the tree of any above ground holdings of gold that could be used to meet BT obligations? Essentially, in this scenario the price will be deliberately driven down ( and kept down ) in the face of very bad news and CB propoganda ( demontisation ) to accomplish a couple of things:

Firstly to persuade large holders of bullion that they are being crucified on the cross of gold and it is high time that they cut their losses and go make money on the stock market like real men.

Secondly, I strongly suspect this will help bullion banks settle with various bullion depositors whose gold they have cheerfully lent out and now cannot get back. The spin would be something like this: We have insured your deposits at 370 ( or whatever ) . However, to claim this insurance you must give up your bullion. What we suggest you do is claim the insurance and take an ofsetting position in the futures market.

Everyone should remember that these prices are not necessarily harmful to BT. If this flushes out more cheap bullion for him, he might even go short himself on paper gold. And maybe already has.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 12:26
NJ Greenman>(Greenman):
Does anyone know if Greenspan is under a gag order ?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 12:15
George Cole stocks>(stocks):
Stocks not doing that well considering smash in gold. Another sign that time is running out for the stock bulls?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 11:59
Front TO Kuston, Roebear/Milhouse,GSC,,Aurophile>(TO Kuston, Roebear/Milhouse,GSC,,Aurophile):

Kuston:

VMAX's? Is a '73 Z1 Golden enough? ( :- )

Roebear & Milhouse:

Early last night ( roebear ) and this morning ( Milhouse ) you mentioned that people would not be moving to the new digital cameras. Of course, you and the others are correct for the cameras ( single shot ) items however, have you noticed how many video cameras there are out there now? Go to a wedding and you'll even find the pro photographers using videos since they can digitize the pictures and get them printed just like photos. I use one to make .JPG pictures and send them around the world as attachments to e-mail, without using an touch of Silver ( :- ) .

George S. Cole:

I agree with your post of 8:19 concerning the end of the bear if the market can hold after a re-test of the lowest low ( wherever that might be! ) . Would you expand on why you see the market going up then instead of possibly just going sideways and therefore not making it a great time to jump in please.

Aurophile:

What the hell are you doing up at 3 in the morning? Helping Roebear with his olives? ( :- )

TTFN



Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 11:51
George s. Cole Producer Cooperation>(Producer Cooperation):
Bob: Bravo! It's about time the big gold producers started to think about their shareholders first. The gold mining industry needs a major consolidation to deal with short sellers and CBs on a more even basis. Far too many little guys around that must produce or go belly up.

But even today the seniors could exert a lot of leverage if they began acting in concert instead of letting the CBs and shorts play them for suckers. Time for them to act like grown ups for a change. Their lengthy cooperation with the CBs has been a fools game that has cost shareholders dearly


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 11:50
Mooney @Reify>(@Reify):
Commodity-wise - What goes up must come down - and Vice-versa!
We are certainly getting the volatility that many here predicted would happen for the next few days at least. Certainly is more interesting than watching the paint dry! All do to normal market operations I would say. Some short covering, some liquidation of longs and much new speculation both pro and con. This is probably what the market needed to help restore it to a 'free market' once more!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 11:43
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
Blue Horse Shoe loves KRY, I think. We may see Tuesday or Thursday.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 11:36
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
It seems as if irrational exuberance and irrational pessimism are the by-words of the day. The game's afoot and the next few weeks will tell us the name of the game. Can someone turn lead into gold. Yes, one can do it atomically for about $17,000 a gram. Perhaps in a few weeks we will find that the game has a different name. Here's one for the rumor mill. A gold termite has evolved. It eats gold and eliminates paper dollars. When rumors are rampant what is the truth? Today the truth is Hollywood. Politics and the financial markets have become Hollywood. But when the movie is over we must face reality. In the end the law of supply and demand will dominate. What a difference a day makes!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 11:19
Reify @pressure too much?>(@pressure too much?):
After a couple of hefty bloody amrys, the mind becomes clearer, no?
Why are the CB's of the world announcing their sales publicly, and the US says nary a word. Could they possibly be selling to each other and trying to create an image to the world that just doesn't exist?
They succeeded in making the shorts in gold wealthy, but in the end, won't nature in its infinite wisdom correct all the wrongs? The change in direction when it comes will be amazing, no
What say you all ye wise old sages at the KITCO site?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 11:01
Reify @Good Show Tort>(@Good Show Tort):
On a day when gold bugs should be crawling into a hole, Tort gives us the uplift we all need. Keep up the good work ole boy!

P.S. To my last post- watch XOI, going up, this means the oils are getting warm when they heat up, we may see the catalyst that will change trends and maybe the heat will hit in these here parts of the world, I sure hope I'm wrong.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 10:58
Bob @...up $1.50 from London PM close of $318>(@...up $1.50 from London PM close of $318):
Is something happening ?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 10:54
Bob @...my broker called about gold....final contrary indicator>(@...my broker called about gold....final contrary indicator):
My friendly broker called and had few good words about gold price. He seems to think - as do many others - that the speculative shorts could not be whipsawed.

The shorts will be hammered once the senior miners with cash and credits band together and close out hedged short positions and begin to buy physical gold from weak hands.

That is all it takes to turn this Mama Bear into a Papa Bull. A couple Billion worth of physical and corresponding close-outs of hedged shorts will hammer the speculative shorts and turn this mother around.

Cheers.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 10:51
Tortfeasor Joke of the morning>(Joke of the morning):
I come back from vacation only to find myself broke and the gold market hopefully bottomed out. I must confess that I will pay more respect to the opinions of the chartists on this forum in the future than I have done in the past. Like the chicken in the following story, what's gold done to deserve this harsh treatment?

There was this quiet, conservative man who happened to
own a parrot. Unfortunately for the man, this parrot swore
like a sailor. He would swear for five minutes straight without
repeating himself. This bird's foul mouth was driving the man
crazy. One day, it just got to be too much.

The guy grabbed the bird by the neck, shook him really hard,
and yelled QUIT IT! But this just made the bird mad and
he would start swearing even more.

The guy finally got fed up and said, OK for you and locked
the bird in a kitchen cabinet. This only aggravated the parrot
who contined to claw and scratch the cabinet while he cursed even
louder than before with a stream of swearing that would make a
sailor blush.

At that point the guy became so mad that he threw the parrot
into the freezer!

For the first few seconds the bird started swearing at words
at the top of his lungs

He kicked and clawed and thrashed all about the place.
Then it suddenly became VERY quiet. At first the guy just waited,
but then he started to think that the bird might be hurt.

After a couple of minutes of silence, he became so worried
that he opened the freezer door. The bird calmly climbed on
the man's out-stretched arm and said,
Awfully sorry about all the trouble I gave you. I'll do my
best to improve my vocabulary from now on.

The man was astounded. He couldn't understand the transformation
that had come over the parrot.

Then the parrot said, By the way, what did the chicken do?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 10:45
2weeks_with_time_on_his_hands Break_out_the_champagne_boys>(Break_out_the_champagne_boys):
( Long-winded post follows. Be warned! ) It seemed like a good time to talk about a special time in all of our lives, that being the warm and wonderful holiday of Christmas. Now we all know, the date of Christmas has ( probably ) nothing to do with the birth of Yeshua Hamashiach ( mispelled Anglicization of the Hebrew name of a significant figure in the history of religion ) . It has to do with the response of the leaders of so-called organized religion to the great whoop-de-do and other forms of celebrating being enjoyed by the heathen at the time of the winter solstice. The need for a corresponding gala for Christendom led ( IMHO ) to our celebrating the birth of our Lord on December 25.

Now, as we all know, this is because the pagans did not know for sure that the sun would ever be back, as it gave the earth less and less of its time ( Northern Hemisphere-wise ) all the way until December 22 or so. Thus, when their sages began to notice that the days were getting longer ( starting on December 22-23 or so ) , it was a time for great relief. The culture would survive, the earth would not go dark and cold.

You see, to have chosen precious metals stocks as an investment, and to have lost nearly everything, does not discourage me. To get out of precious metals stocks only to learn that I had left at what turned out to be the bottom, that would bother me.

You see, Christmas, the darkest, coldest, most forlorn and lonely time of the year, is the time of greatest revelry. A curious Western custom, one that reflects a forward-looking mentality.

And we can all say, and tell our children and grandchildren, we were there for the great downward spike of the AM of 7/7/1997, when the day was short. And we lived to see the days get long once more.

Pickett's Charge has been rebuffed. Valley Forge has been endured. Winston Churchill is on the radio.

To Torfeasor, Cherokee, Auric, Aurophile, Earl, Eldorado, the lurkers, the abusers, the ranters and ravers, the soothsayers, and all others: Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year, to all of you.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 10:32
Reify @INTERESTING>(@INTERESTING):
Been busy watching the action. What's impressive here for me is the high volume in PDG and Abx early on, and blydy is up in a market like this,
WOW. GLG hardly moved price wise. This could possibly be the wash out spike action George S. had been telling us about. Hope I'm not just whistlin Dixie, y'all.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 10:24
MoreGold @MINE CLOSURES>(@MINE CLOSURES):
OK folks, as anticipated, the start of the mine closures - in SA.
( I wonder what kind of social harmony will occur when all these newly unemployed people hit the streets in S.A. ? )

Monday July 7 8:31 AM EDT
Gold extends its slide
By Brian Spoors

LONDON ( Reuter ) - New shock waves hit gold Monday following the disclosure last week that Australia had sold
bullion from state reserves, and in South Africa one mine was already being shut because the price has dropped so far.

The price of gold was fixed in London at $318.75, its lowest since December 1985 and down from Friday's London
close of $324.50.

The price collapse to 12-year lows -- down some $50, or about 13 percent, since January -- fuelled anger in the mining
industry as well as anxiety about the future of some mines.

South Africa's East Rand Proprietary Mines said it would halt work at its Benoni Gold Mining Co. Ltd as soon as
possible and put it on a care and maintenance basis because of the low price and losses at the mine. East Rand is a unit of
Randgold and Exploration Co. Ltd.

``It would take a Martian to be bullish at this point,'' said Andy Smith, precious metals analyst at Union Bank of
Switzerland.

The sale of 167 tons of gold by the Reserve Bank of Australia followed disposals earlier in the 1990s by the Belgian and
Dutch central banks.

It stampeded already-jittery investors into a sell-off, for fear that more of the 35,000 tons of gold owned by institutions
may be unloaded in the future.

The sale, which cleaned 60 percent of the Reserve Bank of Australia's gold from its vaults, sent an especially bearish
signal to the market because Australia is the world's third-largest producer -- at 289 tons last year -- after South Africa
and the United States.

Bullion dealers expectedinvestor selling to step up this week. The U.S. Independence Day holiday last Friday may have
only postponed some of the unloading, they said.

``Expect an orgy of selling over the next few weeks,'' one dealer said, adding that he felt this way despite a previous view
that the price was about as low as it could get this time round.

``Now we might go to under $300 but if we do, mortgage your house and get into the market,'' he said.

In industry reactions, Australian gold miners pressed the World Gold Council, a producer lobby group, to make a
statement criticizing the action of their country's central bank.

The WGC expressed deep concern, saying that the sale seemed to be ``motivated by narrow financial considerations.''

``For a leading gold producer to take unnecessary actions that prejudice the well-being of a key sector of its economy
suggests a lack of sensitivity to the factors impacting the market,'' it declared.

WGC chief executive officer E. M. Hood said the weak price would put additional pressure on member companies,
several of which were in the council's hardship category even before the latest price slide.

``We expect others to follow with prices at these levels,'' he said.

Stockbroker T. Hoare and Co.'s mining equities analyst, Roger Chaplin, calculated that many gold miners are already
suffering at prices around $320.

Yet some dealers see the market's likely downside target as far down as the 1985 low of $287.25 which they say could
be reached shortly.

Gold sank 12 years ago in tandem with a collapse in the price of oil. It had tracked oil higher, to reach a record $850 an
ounce early in 1980, at a time when it was seen as an investor refuge from the inflation triggered by the OPEC oil
``shocks'' of the 1970s.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 10:16
Bob @...Seniors trade at premium based on gold price>(@...Seniors trade at premium based on gold price):
Ali: The reason ABX may suffer more than, say, a junior miner, is because all senior producers trade at a premium to net asset value. Even though ABX ( as you state ) has hedged its production at about $400 two years out the fact is that the bulk of its reserves need to be depreciated due to the current contango prices that prevail in the spot and futures gold market. So the premiums paid for proven reserves will decline accordingly across the board for senior miners.

This is why I have been harping lately that shareholders of the ABX's of this world should be calling Investor Relations and lobbying the companies to buy physical gold and catch the short specs with their pants down. This would turn the Mother Bear into a PaPa Bull.

I don't expect to see a grassroots lobby effort from gold investors to have immediate results but I do predict that political lobbying by shareholders to encourage the Big Boys to buy gold will eventually filter the rumour mill and the markets will start to fear the inevitable power of the Big Boy cash cows in the paper Gold markets.

ABX need only close its open short positions ( $400 futures book ) at these prices and take profits without mining the gold !!

This is the point. The 'hedged' Big Boys only need to close positions as the price spirals southward to take profits without ever mining the gold gold. Neat, eh ?

Cheers


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 10:14
DBC 10 AM KST>(10 AM KST):

XAU off 8.16. My god its BLACK MONDAY!!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 10:08
Paul Smith fuji@idirect.com>(fuji@idirect.com):
George S. Cole

George, you stated I have been saying that a new gold bull will begin at approximately the same time as stocks peak and I still say this. Both of these trend changes should occur by the end of August.

Why August ? Why not September, October or November ?

It seems all bad news is disregarded and the bull continues on.

What 'bad news' do you foresee ? From what I read, Greenspan will probably once again hold on interest rates in August.

Paul



Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 10:07
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Sorry 317-318 not 337-338 .... wishfull thinking eh!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 10:06
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Gold actually having an upward rally at the moment in NY 337-338...


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 10:00
George Cole gold and stocks>(gold and stocks):
Bob: I certainly have made my share of bad calls as have most here with a few exceptions. But for the last several months, I have been saying that a new gold bull will begin at approximately the same time as stocks peak and I still say this. Both of these trend changes should occur by the end of August. We will soon know if I am right or wrong.

I don't think the recent drop in gold has anything to do with inflation/deflation. Just euphoria about paper, Greenspan and Rubin worship in lower Manhattan, CB selling, and cheap gold loans to short-sellers.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 09:57
Bob @....hooked on psychodelic market mantra>(@....hooked on psychodelic market mantra):
Who cares if gold price drops overnight ? The only price that matters is that which prevails to clear physical supply and demand - equilibrium.

The speculative 'bottom' focus on this thread misses the forest for the trees. The technical indicators may prove self-fulfilling but an exogenous event like the Japs or 'Big Boy' major miners going long big-time would whipsaw the price north like a bat outa hell.

We need fundamental demand-supply laws or commodity price supports to establish a stable gold price range. The CBs have signaled the demonetization of the yellow metal but the industrial and consumer demand still affords it a 'precious' value.

The speculators control the play and the investors have decided to sit on the side-lines waiting for the second coming.

I suggest that investors in ABX, HM, BHP, RTZ, start to lobby their companies to shore-up the gold price. The big global miners have the cash and credit leverage to turn this Mother Bear around ...all they need to do is go long to reverse the trend - preferably by acquiring physical from weak CBs.

The justification would be that the Big Boys could not produce gold profitably at sub300 levels after forward booked sales were satisfied. How many of you are prepared to have your gold company close down without a fight ?

The paper gold market is many multiples of the physical market. It is clear that the psychodelic market mantra of looking for a 'bottom' in gold price is distracting gold investors from the logic of fundamental demand-supply laws.

The price of gold is one that would prevail over a long-term as determined by the laws of demand and supply. Remove the speculative monetary jinx from gold price dynamics and gold price will resume an orderly dynamic akin to copper.

The gold paper overburden inflates and distorts the real or physical market flows and begs the question if the self-regulating organizations and global brokers that profit from trading securitized gold ( NY, Chicago, London metals exchanges ) have avoided consideration of the public interest generally, and gold investors, specifically, during this historic Paper Bull.

Afterall, if the paper gold leverage were not permitted to beyond a nominal multiple of physical flows the speculative incentive would flatten as few players would or could afford to enter the derivative market in gold. Gold would not be a counter currency play or a stk market harbinger as defacto messenger of inflation.

The Big Boys need to step up to the plate and relieve the pressure on gold price.

The worst thing that could happen is for good men to do nothing and 'hope' for the best outcome.

Long gold investors who own the Big Boys should contact Investor Relations and vote with your telephones and letters. The Big Boys need to use their collective cash and credits to shore-up gold and chase the short specs out of this macabre market.

Cheers


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 09:49
Lan Man No Quotes Avail.>(No Quotes Avail.):
Schwab indicates that trading has been halted on both ABX and NEM.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 09:45
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
George- you have been predicting the gold bottom for a long time now..and it hasnt arrived..gold is telling us that a massive deflation is acoming.gold is doing what it does best..a future indicator..other investment vehicles will follow it down eventually


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 09:41
Ali @watchingthespending>(@watchingthespending):
Bob M,you may be right in your last post,but I would like to add one observation,albeit a small one:We had our yearly Stampede here and there where maybe 2000 motorhomes and RV's parked here,which shows me that a lot of people have money and are SPENDING it. ( just not on gold ) What investment will these vehicles be in 20 years time?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 09:39
George Cole smart investing>(smart investing):
Wonder why the Austalian Reserve bank didn't buy S & P 500 index funds with the poceeds of their gold sale. Now that would really be smart investing! Just ask New Jersey Governor Christine Whitman.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 09:32
vronsky IS GOLD STILL A STORE OF VALUE?>(IS GOLD STILL A STORE OF VALUE?):
International market pundit Milhouse questions common-sense of Australia’s CB selling 2/3s of gold reserves at historically low prices. He foresees higher inflation & money supply - see Guest Guru Milhouse:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 09:31
George S. Cole The Bottom>(The Bottom):
Prediction: Whatever the bottom turns out to be -- $310, $300, $275, etc; -- the consensus ( including here at KITCO ) will be anticpating a much steeper drop.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 09:29
Ali @sunstillshines>(@sunstillshines):
With the gold falling and ABX having sold all their production for the next 2years at $400 plus,what reason is there, other than sentiment,for its shareprice to drop?What about the deal with chesbar in Venezuela and that possible huge development, even if a production is a few years away in this country and the low gold price.I think ABX is a steal and chesbar even more so.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 09:27
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
A major point that all the stock market bulls have overlooked in their irrational exuberance, is the long term damge this stock market has done to the economy. Stocks have literally siphoned off money that would normally circulate in the economy as everyone is maxing out their 401K and IRA deductions then using their plastic to support their spending habits. The dark side of stocks will be exposed when credit is overextended and the consumer can no longer borrow. Isnt it ironic that stocks rise when bad news on the economy comes out, little does it realize that the slow economy will ultimately cause its death..


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 09:20
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Bob M: You must have been looking at EARL's excellent 20 yr charts. If the bond chart can go up that high, then if the converse works, Gold can get down to the 125-137 level I called a week or so ago ( via a solid rumour via Perth ) when gold was up at 340. Platinum may also follow the same path, if it truly mirrors gold. Maybe the platinum play was a trick to the goldbugs, but failed. It was palladium that had the big surge, really. This is excitement plus. George Cole is right. 8500 here we come. But will the late 97/mid 98 stock correction come off, with the big surge to 10-12000 on the DOW According to Harry Schultz's UFO's, WHY NOT? It really scares you when you KNOW the general public ( who I deal with ) wouldn't have a CLUE about PE's etc.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 09:12
Steve - Perth @rampant copying & distributing Harry >(@rampant copying & distributing Harry ):
Latest from Harry Schultz:
UFO's have taken over. Unidentified Financial Order! That's what we have in the world today. But I think I have IDENTIFIED it! The reason today's markets have baffled the experts for several years, why key indexes have been a record levels of overheating without collapsing, why traditional indicators have failed, why no significant correction has occurred, is as follows: Stock markets, worldwide, have always been the domain of bankers, biz men, professional money managers, & a large number of individual investors who played by the rules of the game with respect to P/E & dividend ratios, book value, A/D lines, oversold/overbought situations. Then mutual funds gradually invaded the playing field & today DOMINATE it. But they're NOT in control. Why not? Because their rules say they MUST invest all but 5-10% of the money given them by Joe Public. Fundmen aren't allowed to be prudent or diversify. Who IS in charge then? The collective little guy. The people who put their savings, earning & borrowings into this fund Goliath. Their little people dont play by the rules because they DON'T EVEN KNOW THEM!!!!!!!!!!! Nor are they investing. They regard funds as savings banks with 20% annual return +/-.......bottom line: for now, DON'T FIGHT the fund momentum.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 09:11
MoreGold @options>(@options):
WW: Options is clearly the way to go at the moment. I bought options when AU was at 345. and taking a small loss at the moment. Had I bought the futures I would be in the dumps right now. Options are dirt cheap but it may still be too early to buy....


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 09:08
vronsky THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)>(THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)):
“Why has the U.S. - fountainhead of antigold sentiment - NOT SOLD any of its gold while encouraging its allies to sell” - Cole’s Market Insights poignant question:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 09:07
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
$200s here we come. An intermediate bottom will occur this week, but the long term bottom is still a long long way out..this drop has just begun...


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:47
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Bart Chart Restart! ( Just been corrected. )


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:44
Mooney @George>(@George):
Perhaps this weekend was the absolute low in sentiment, George, and is exactly what the market needed to put in the final lows. We'll soon see!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:40
Mooney @Speed>(@Speed):
Speed - Now I know how you got your handle! Beat me by 10 seconds! 'Course I took time to copy the URL.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:40
George S. Cole lessons>(lessons):
Two trading lessons from recent gold smash:

NEVER hold a long investment position in a market that cannot respond to good news. This has been true for gold since the bear began.

Negative sentiment is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a bottom in a major bear market. Gold sentiment has been quite negative for some months, but prices have continued to plunge. I suspect that sentiment today is worse than it has ever been, yet the nose-dive continues.



Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:39
JDM jdmcclu@ibm.net>(jdmcclu@ibm.net):
Gotta be a screwup. EBN still shows 317 spot.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:38
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Check out Bart's 24 hour Gold graph! http:///gold.graph.html


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:37
Speed what the ?>(what the ?):
What the h-e-double hockey sticks just happened on the New York open? Barts 24 hour graph shows gold straight up to 325?!!!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:32
Donald @Work>(@Work):
PANDA: If the Fed primes the pump how will those countries that hold dollars in reserve react? What will the reaction be to prices of imports into the US?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:32
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
George - Usually the same thing applies to short positions!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:29
George Cole the weekend>(the weekend):
After this weekend's traumatic events, I now understand why futures players have been very reluctant to hold long positions Saturday and Sunday.





Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:27
Quote here>(here):

Here is a bird's eye view. http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/index.html?source=DBCC


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:27
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Now that NY is about to open does everybody have butterflies this morning or is it just me?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:23
WW @New England>(@New England):
What does anyone think of option plays? Avoid the volatility but get the leverage.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:20
panda @>(@):
At what point does the Fed push the panic button on deflation? After all, this would make it a lot easier to 'prime the pump' without scaring the markets too much about inflation. In fact, perhaps the markets would, 'feel better' under this scenario, i.e. no cataclysmic crash. Perhaps a slow bear after an initial bull run?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:19
George Cole The Bottom>(The Bottom):
Looks like this is the final spike down down. Where the bottom is, nobody knows, but we probably will see it this week. However, as Bill Buckler points out, you can never be 100% sure of a bottom until after the fact. If this week's panic low can hold on a retest after the next bounce, time to say goodbye to the bear.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:18
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
escher - RE: your 1:12. You ask if there could be much more selling due to margin calls. Many, many futures players buy and/or sell on margin. To many that is the whole point of playing the futures market, huge leverage on your buck. Remember that when most Americans and Canadians last loked at there Comex Gold positions last Thursday morning Glol was about $330. Whether receiving a margin call or not ( many will ) theis sudden and enormous downdraft will scare the Bejesus out of many future players who are long and that is basically why I made my price prediction as low as I did last night, when many others were still sticking with $312-$315. Things can go one of two ways now. We may bottom today or tommorrow or we may go the other way and experience the second shoe dropping before we finally stabilize.
AAR - After seeing $330 on Thursday morning erode to ? on Monday morning there are more than likely going to be many panicky sales this morning at the Comex. It really is time to start the 'layered' purchase plan.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:09
geff @correction.com>(@correction.com):
Correction re:my 8:02 post--Should read I would rather see an established uptrend... Things are tough before the morning coffee.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:06
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home):
Mihouse: Judging from the action this morning, I have the tendency to agree. Anyone think we will get a bounce this week?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:02
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net):
Bill Buckler: Good Points. To put a finer point on my previous thought:
The mere presence of market panic doesn't seem to be a real good entry timing mechanism. I would rather seem an established trend reversal before getting long.

As a weekly reader of the Privateer, I was impressed by your historical presentation a few months ago of previous gold rallys and your point that there is often been plenty of time to get on board a decent rally. That seems to make sense and thats how I plan to play this next go around.

Keep up the fine work.

Regards,
Geff


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 08:00
Quote It worked!>(It worked!):

Re-07:54--Also gives mutual fund quotes.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 07:59
panda @uh oh>(@uh oh):
This is a curious thing, gold down and the Dollar goes down?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 07:59
Donald @Work>(@Work):
MILHOUSE: In the 1930's we entered a period of competing currency devaluations, mostly done for trade purposes. When England devalued in 1931? ( can't remember the exact date ) there was the dollar, backed by gold, to take the role of the international trade currrency. We have held that role since 1931 and still hold it.

My reason for bringing up this bit of history is to make the comparison to today. There is no country with a substantial currency to take the international role today. If the dollar goes down the tubes today, next week, or whenever, only gold or barter remains. That is why we are in a much more dangerous situation than the 30's. International trade has become absolutely essential to most of the world. Gold is the only world class currency left.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 07:58
Milhouse Silver>(Silver):

To : IDT and Roebear

Martin Armstrong has been bearish on silver for some time and has made a lot of money for his clients by shorting silver during the past 2 years. The quote that he expects silver to go to $18 once the bull market gets in gear is correct, but he believes that such a bull market will not get underway until sometime after Q1 98 and that there is a good chance we will see silver trading in the 3.25 - 3.50 area before it does. The fundamental weakness in the silver market over the past 2 years is self evident. There have been a number of concerted attempts by hedge funds to push the price up, but each attempted rally has failed dismally.

Regarding commercial demand for silver, I agree that digital cameras won't start taking a significant share of the market for another 12 months yet, but this is a short time frame when you consider the above ground stocks of silver.

BTW, M Armstrong believes that silver going to 3.25 would be the best thing for this market from a technical perspective. The silver chart currently has a double bottom at 3.50 from 1991 and 1993, and no market has ever rebounded to new highs after a double bottom ( don't ask me why - TA is a mystery to me ) .

BTW2, silver may not be a lousy investment at the moment, it's just a lousy trade. There is a big difference.

Regards, Milhouse


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 07:55
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Bill's chart ( that he mentioned at 7:14 ) of the Aussie Gold shares IS something else. Sometimes it really pays to be short! http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-ind.html


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 07:54
Quotes hope I did this right>(hope I did this right):

Here is a good site for stock quotes. When you get there, ignore the error message, scroll down. Then enter symbol, and click. Enjoy. http://qs.cnnfn.com/cgi-bin/stockquote


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 07:52
Billd Dollar>(Dollar):
The only things dropping faster than the dollar is the ECU and gold!!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 07:51
panda @>(@):
One mine down,
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/07/erndy_y00_2.html


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 07:50
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net):
Panda: Current decline rate puts us at $250 by sometime Wednesday, $0 per ounce in two weeks : ) Fasten your seat belt.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 07:46
panda @WOW!>(@WOW!):
Why I do I have this feeling that everyone ( stock, bond, cash,... ) is whistling past the grave yard? Gold down $9.05 and falling!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 07:45
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Morning ( evening ) all: Well its down almost 10 bucks and US soon to open. Will we see $299 tonight or tomorrow? I was quite surprised to see that my shares in Coolgardie Gold have not really gone down much. I guess at 7.5c a share there is not much room eh! The good thing is that in a stock like mine, speculators tend to keep it above water.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 07:35
Milhouse sas@hk.gin.net>(sas@hk.gin.net):

6Pak :

Thanks for your reponse to my article. A point which I did not make clearly enough in the article at Gold Eagle was that the change to the monetary system which occurred in 1971 was so fundamental as to make before and after comparisons inherently unreliable. There really is no precedent for the current situation and how gold will react in a modern day deflationary environment. What I am very sure of is that gold gains favour if there is a loss of confidence in the national currency caused by :

1. Inflation ( increasing money supply ) , or
2. A drop in the quality of the assets which back the currency ( primarily debt in the case of the US dollar )

I believe we are headed for the inflationary scenario because of the total lack of objective restraints on the ability of the Fed to create dollars. This weapon will be used to postpone the inevitable day of reckoning for several years, during which we are likely to witness a commodity boom beyond most people's imagination. If you start preparing for the deflationary outcome now you will miss out on this opportunity. Being 4 or 5 years ahead of your time is sometimes a disadvantage ( as those who became goldbugs in 1993 could testify ) .

Having said that, it is important not to be emotionally attached to any position. During the next few months we should start to see growing signs of economic weakness. Q2 GDP growth in the US should be very low, prices will remain flat and a significant correction will most likely happen in the stock market. The key thing to watch is how the Fed reacts to these events. When I wrote the article I stated that 1997 money supply ( M3 ) growth had thus far been maintained at the high 1996 rate of 7.4%. Actually, the figures just released indicate that M3 has grown by an annualised rate of 8.2% during the first 25 weeks of 1997. If the current trend continues we will see 1970's growth rates ( 11% ) within 18 months. These rates could be seen much earlier if the Fed perceives deflationary risk. The more indications of deflation we see, the more the Fed will open the monetary floodgates and the higher the rate of inflation that will eventuate as the illusion is maintained a bit longer.

I reiterate - there is NO LIMITATION on the amount of money which can be created.

Best regards, Milhouse


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 07:21
Bob A whipped>(whipped):
It's back to the drawing board for me. Ihave never been so wrong on a mkt. before. Fighting the governments of the world, the miners and shorters doesn't pay. I'll try to re-gain losses in SWC or is plat. next?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 07:14
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com):
geff ( Jul 7 6:37 ) There was blood on the streets on the U.S. stock market in the last half of 1974, not in 1975. Between December '74 and May '75, the Dow rose almost 50% ( 586 to 850 ) . No one believed it all the way up. Of course, 1975 was the year when it once again became legal for Americans to own gold. The $US gold price duly fell 28% over the course of the year.

Aussie Dollar falling even faster than U.S. Dollar overnight. Aussie Gold index down 93 points or 6.87% on July 7. Now that's some chart. Take a look at http://www.the-privateer.com/charts.html

I'm sure that Hashimoto is devastated by this fall in the Gold price. After all, he hasn't got very much and he says he is looking to buy some. It sure as hell is getting cheap in Yen terms, and he's losing even more on his $US holdings too.



Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 06:37
Gold watcher since '84. >(since '84. ):

I wonder what Ted thinks. we need him back.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 06:37
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net):
Regarding the current Blood in the streets and pervasive negative sentiment, let me say this about that: One could have observed the same enviornment in the stock market in 1975. The market's next bull move didn't get under way for another six years.

Golds current decline is celebrating its second year. For my money I am content to keep my powder dry until a sound uptrend in precious metals is established.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 06:25
Dax Gold Panic>(Gold Panic):
Any student of markets will appreciate the current atmosphere of panic selling, negative sentiment, and fear. There is blood in the streets, especially in gold equities. Particularly bullish is the widespread mention of downside targets. I think the $250 number bantered about Kitco is a great sign of a current bottom. Also, the fear has escalated, giving the impression that selling gold short constitutes a no brainer.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 06:08
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net):
Earl: People's acceptance of paper in 1985 makes sense. With Paul Volker wringing out inflation and Ronnie in the White House with FIRM beliefs in limited government, bonds were bound to rally after being killed by the last several administrations.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 05:46
Tw @home>(@home):
WW you are right about RYO with Kemess coming on their cap/reserve ratio makes them the cheapest and potential takeover.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 05:44
WW @NE>(@NE):
Gold down 6.2/S&p up .75. And so it goes as natural as a river flows.
Gold may go up sometime b/c supply/demand. As long as people accept paper for goods and services paper will have some rule even if there are crisis. Heard RYO, PGU and ECO possible takeover targets if much lower given reserves.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 05:42
Yogi Berra Quotes>(Berra Quotes):

It's deja vu all over again. I would like to thank everyone who made this day necessary.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 05:09
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Here is an overlay of gold and the bond. Both are monthly continuation futures charts. ..... I've drawn in a line that short circuits the 1980 gold spike. It was placed on the assumption that a substantial portion of that spike was an overreaction to events of the '70s. If gold had followed a curve similar to the blue line, the inverse correlation between bond and gold would look pretty good. Until 1985. Judging from the currency charts, the world began to embrace paper in a big way, in 1985.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 04:37
Goldbug23 @Armageddon>(@Armageddon):
EBN gold down 5.90 at 04:30 ET.
Is this a washout or what?
BT played with us!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 04:08
EBN 4 AM KST>(4 AM KST):

Gold at $318.75 ... Dollar @ 112.23 Yen ... European markets to open soon.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 03:56
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Here is an overlay of gold and platinum for the past 20 years. What was interesting is that the two have been virtually coincident on direction EXCEPT for the current period in '97. PL ( BLUE ) is moving postive but gold is diverging. The only time in 20 years Will it continue? ... N.B.: The PL chart has a 0.8 X multiplier for sizing.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 03:44
aurophile 4he'sajollygoodfellow>(4he'sajollygoodfellow):
theyare trying to blast the yen through 112. it's not a good idea to be nasty to bobby rubin, boy genius currency trader.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 03:32
aurophile 4he'sajollygoodfellow>(4he'sajollygoodfellow):
theyare trying to blast the yen through 112. it's not a good idea to be nasty to bobby rubin, boy genius currency trader.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 03:21
EBN Hourly update>(Hourly update):

3:00 Kitco time_ Gold cut losses by about $2. Yen is rising! ( I had incorrectly reported Yen was weak ) Dollar took large loss in Yen.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 03:12
aurophile watching@thecape>(watching@thecape):
we have liftoff in the yen.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 03:03
IF I WERE NEVADA I would protect my gold mining industry>(I would protect my gold mining industry):

Nevada do you hear me. According to the Constitution,
you cannot issue paper money but you can issue gold and
silver coin. I would take all precious metal production
and issue back to the companies gold coins 20% with a face
value of five times the gold content, I would keep the
other 80% in safe keeping as full backing for the coinage
which would then be exchanged equally for the US $ in
Nevada. Melting of the coinage would not be worthwhile
under these circumstances. Vistor's to your State will
take some coins back to their own place of abode and
probably find them accepted for full US $ value in their
own locals. ACT NEVADA BEFORE THEY DESTROY YOU.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 02:54
RJ This is the last, I promise>(This is the last, I promise):
Old men forget: yet all shall be forgot,
But he'll remember with advantages
What feats he did that day: then shall our names.
Familiar in his mouth as household words
Be in their flowing cups freshly remember'd.
This story shall the good man teach his son;
And Crispin Crispian shall ne'er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remember'd;
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition:
And gentlemen in England now a-bed
Shall think themselves accursed they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 02:51
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
Red Heifer news:
http://www.cdn-friends-icej.ca/isreport/redheifer.html


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 02:50
aurophile awake@midnight>(awake@midnight):
down to the base court where gold grows base...


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 02:47
Auric As I like it >(As I like it ):

Then again, maybe Lester Flatt and Earl Scruggs would better befit this market! Good night all. Off to bed-AWAY!!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 02:44
RJ Auric - Or perhaps this:>(Auric - Or perhaps this:):
Let me speak proudly:
We are but warriors for the working-day;
Our gayness and our gilt are all besmirch'd
With rainy marching in the painful field;
There's not a piece of feather in our host--
Good argument, I hope, we will not fly--
And time hath worn us into slovenry:
But, by the mass, our hearts are in the trim;


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 02:39
RJ Auric - Perhaps this from Henry V>(Auric - Perhaps this from Henry V):
By Jove, I am not covetous for gold,
Nor care I who doth feed upon my cost;
It yearns me not if men my garments wear;
Such outward things dwell not in my desires:
But if it be a sin to covet honour ….

Rather proclaim it, through my host,
That he which hath no stomach to this fight,
Let him depart; his passport shall be made
And crowns for convoy put into his purse:
We would not die in that man's company
That fears his fellowship to die with us


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 02:38
IF I WERE NEVADA I would protect my gold mining industry>(I would protect my gold mining industry):

Nevada do you hear me. According to the Constitution, you cannot issue paper money but you can issue gold and silver coin. I would take all precious metal production and issue back to the companies coins 20% with a face value of five times the gold content, I would keep the other 80% in safe keeping as full backing for the coinage which would then be exchanged equally for the US $ in Nevada. Melting of the coinage would not be worthwhile under these circumstances. Vistor's to your State will take some coins back to their own place of abode and probably find them accepted for full US $ value in their own locals. ACT NEVADA BEFORE THEY DESTROY YOU.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 02:34
Poorboys Canada>(Canada):
Poor Boys 10 Reasons WHEN TO BUY GOLD? 1.Add to positions just before you are committed to a mental institution,buy more during your stay,buy even more when pronounced competent. 2.Buy when everyone else is selling, you're more intelligent than all those losers. 3.Buy when you hear a rumour Soros is buying 4.Buy when the President and directors issue millions of options for themselves, but none for you, they wont let the stock fall. 5.Buy when the stock market crashes you will be rich everybody on earth will be poor. 6.Buy when the currency collapses but you will have to convert back to that currency to make any money? um did I say that right? 7.Buy when your parents talk about Gold day and night and you know their senile but you buy anyway. 8. Buy when you see butterflies after a 40 pounder of vodka. 9 Buy when the postman drops an extra welfare cheque by mistake. 10.Buy when your technical charts give that great buy signal yes we all know your right again.Now that's what I call poorboys.Happy trails


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 02:30
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
IMHO - I have been pondering the 100+ ton sale of gold by the central
bank of OZ all weekend. The midnight local time of the announcement
has been bothering me. From the few small details I have learned, I've
come up with the following prediction: We will hear of at least 1 more
100+ ton sale of gold by a central bank in the next month or two.
Until this weekend - I didn't really know/care if Big Trader was real or
not. BT made for great reading - I really enjoyed the posts. Today I
think BT was real and he is taking delievery of his gold. The problem
is that the sellers ( Austrialian in today's case ) don't have it.

BT claimed to be buying everything available since Febuary ( 6 months ago ) .
Then in June he implied he was taking delievery of it. Maybe he tried?
It wasn't there - just like the PL market they just changed the rules
alittle. Give the sellers a little more time. The problem is that this
is gold - a political metal. The world will react to a change in the
rules, PL it's not.

This gave the sellers a breather, so they go to their local central
banker and ask for some help. Since the D word is never acceptable
when talking about gold. The central bank of OZ must help, but it has
a few problems to resolve::
- Should they lease 80% of their gold holding?
- Should they announce they are bailing out naked future players?
- they could just claim they sold it and settle with the locals privately.

The story could of ended here, but it didn't.

The Central Bank of OZ made the anouncement of the sale at midnight local
time Then there was the huge short sell on the COMEX gold and silver floor just before a long weekend. Someone is doing unusual things in
this market. Like we say in the lab, where there's smoke, there's fire.
These unusual things are the smoke. Where is the fire? I figure it's BT.
I don't think the balance of BT's gold has been paid.

The 100+ tons is just a down payment. Now the problem is the balance
and that the local central bank doesn't have any more gold stuff. So,
where is the balance going to come from? The market might be a good
place - if you could convince everyone that gold was going to $250 you
might be able to pick up enough to settle with BT.
I figure the short sale was done by whoever is opposite of BT. If I'm
right here - then BT is real and there are other's who owe him the
physical. He did say he bought everything. Now that the blueprint for
the shorts has been shown I figure the everyone will follow it. Hence,
we will see another large central bank announcement of a sale of thier
gold holdings. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few of these within the
next few weeks. BT is waiting.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 02:18
Auric All The World Is A Stage>(All The World Is A Stage):

Hi RJ-Interesting times these are. This is worthy of Shakespeare. There are great struggles being played out in real time. I couldn't think of a better seat than front row here at Kitco.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 02:16
Jack Central Banks>(Central Banks):

Since the late 1987 gold high of $500+ to tonights price the CB's have lost well over $120 billion dollars even when P&I on direct gold sales and the interest earned on gold loans is considered.
Probably another $100 billion can be added; as the price manipulation has definately kept the price from going to at least $600 per ounce.
The untold damage that they have placed on the gold mining and the basic metals industry is another point to take into consideration.
All this to keep the credit czars, their maniulated stock markets and the foreign currency markets in vogue.
The crap will hit the fan and either we will be their servants, or .
Who runs the world's countries


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 02:04
RJ You have a good point.>(You have a good point.):
Mooney - I concede that there was some self contradiction in my trading advice and my subsequent silver purchase strategy. I have some clients who have more speculative blood than others, they like to be in the game. It was these clients who I bought silver for last week. We obviously have not reached a turn around in silver or gold. So much for the Asians doing a bit of bargain basement shopping. While gold still has downside left, silver is very oversold at this level. 4.40 support is very strong with a solid history, I’m gonna’ hafta’ buy some more. We’ll see the commercials step in and buy this week. Industrial users like cheap silver, they should stock up a bit. This will be a very interesting week. Platinum is holding very well and, in the face of extremely weak gold, it has held strong. All those who own platinum sleep well this evening. Not even the frenzied pacing of the gold owners in the upstairs apartment are keeping platinum owners up tonight.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 02:04
EBN hourly update >(hourly update ):

No major changes.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 02:03
prospector @gold creek>(@gold creek):
just when it's time to sell to finance the next program ...
well, I think I'll sleep on it..
Thanks for all the insights.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 01:39
Auric Fireworks on the 7th.>(Fireworks on the 7th.):

Aurophile @ 01:26--Agree. My guess is that Mr. Hashimoto sees it that way, as well.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 01:37
mark it's all over>(it's all over):
after over 3 years and lots of money the gold market has just about hit
bottom, why you may ask, because I just sold my futures contracts. Like all
bottoms its when you just can't take the pain any more.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 01:28
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
John 22:31 : 1 ) Gold is different then sportscards - 1 has a limited
supply 1 doesn't. '63 Ferrari GTO's - that's like gold, well its really
better then gold. '70 Jaguar XKE V12 that's more like gold. There will
always be a few who want them - but the prices mainly moves when the public
decide they want one.
I think #2 has been answered - gold is just 1 of many investment
vechiles. We talk about here because that is what we do here. If you
would like to learn about VMAXs - I can hook you up with the right
newsgroup.



Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 01:26
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
auric: you want gold hashimoto? here's some gold. plop.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 01:23
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
Nick: Those brilliant guys and gals at the RBA may do us all a favor by showing what will happen if all the rest start selling. there is 30,000 tonnes of gold sitting in central banks. i think they're stuck with it.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 01:21
Auric Home>(Home):

Someone asked if it would be fireworks or ho-hum. Are we witnessing a tit-for-tat tonight? Everything is going against Japan-lower gold, lower dollar,lower Nikkei. Is Greenspan sending them a message?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 01:17
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie):
OZ Gold Index down 5.44% today. Currently at 1294.7 -74.5
3 days ago 1428 down 133 pts overall for 9.3%
Approx $1.5billion wiped of stocks in 3 days.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 01:13
EBN On the hourly update>(On the hourly update):

Gold down $6.93, to $317.62. Nikkei down 275 or 1.4%. Yen @112.49, down 1.61Yen, a 1.4% drop.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 01:12
escher remote4@ibm.net>(remote4@ibm.net):
ugh 318, my gosh. One of the wire reports said that margin calls were increasing current selling. Could there be that much on margin, or is there any way to quantify this?


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 01:09
ACW \\\\\\\\\\\\\\>(\\\\\\\\\\\\\\):
Gold down $6.60 Silver down 5.50c. ( was 8.00c. )

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 01:06
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
This is one unbelievable chart.
http:///gold.graph.html


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 00:54
hhhhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhhhhhh>(hhhhhhhhhhhhhhh):



IMO The gold mrkt is now discounting the knowledge that cental banks are going to sell their gold. Shortly, I expect an announced gold sale to cause gold to rise at it means there is one less to make a sale. There were 20% bulls in gold at NY's Thursdays close; I can only wonder at what the % will be 1/2 hour into Mondays comex gold trading.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 00:39
Update Oops.Try this>(Oops.Try this):

http://www.teleport.com/~stobias/mars/gallery3.html


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 00:38
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Anyone who has been following my commentary for the last year or so, will have noted two things. 1 ) I am long term bullish and generally optimistic that Gold and Silver have good long term value at recent historical levels. 2 ) Although Aurophile may be right that only a few participants here have been outright short, ( I stated previously that that was against my religion ) , I have steadfastly maintained a cautious outlook since last summer when I said that if Gold broke $390 and especially $388 'Look out below. Since that time I have been ocassionally saying that the chart looks sick. Well, as everybody now knows, the chart STILL looks sick! However, I am now going out on a limb in the midst of the biggest debacle gold has seen for many years and declaring ( in the face of all wisdom to the contrary ) that we are soon to be at the absolute lows. I believe that the spike down will go to somewhere between $305.00 and $309.25 and then reverse.
I still stand behind my Thurs. July 3 post,
As some here have today mentioned, the spike down can continue
for few days, but it will be very testy on many market participants
nerves as to just when exactly to jump back aboard. The gold
market has really not seen such a sharp downward movement for
quite some time so the volatility we will now witness should be
very interesting indeed. As I now see it, if the market does not spike
back upwards immediately after finishing its sharp down move,
then the Gold market may consolidate for a brief time period and
may actually spike downwards again, which event should prove to
be the final blow-off. If, however, the price spikes back upwards
sometime next week then the bull has started.
I've been wrong before but it sure is fun taking a stab.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 00:37
Update NEWSFLASH>(NEWSFLASH):

Strange images from Pathfinder Http://www.teleport.com/~stobias/mars/gallery3.html


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 00:28
Savage why?>(why?):
VRONSKY: You were terribly ingracious to NotaGoldbug. Why are you so irritable and insecure that you must attack people in this public forum? If you are a bona fide publisher, you must expect people to question your opinions. In the past two weeks you have run ( at least ) 2 people from this site with your defensive invective. Stop being so thin skinned! Perhaps you offend many others here with your constant barrage of free advertisements; but most of us are gracious enough not to mention it. Do yourself ( and us ) a favor...and chill!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 00:20
Strad Master WHOA!>(WHOA!):
ALL: EBN Gold down $5.05!


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 00:17
Update @>(@):

EBN: Yen down to 112.60. Gold down $4.70 to $319.85. Nekkei down 1.1%.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 00:06
Strad Master Evil Omens>(Evil Omens):
ALL: There was an article in the LA Times today about how since the handover of Hong Kong there hasn't been a sunny day. In fact, it has rained non-stop and over 100 inches have fallen! A Buddhist shrine was washed away and a caretaker killed. Initially, at least, rain was considered a good sign as rain is thought to be associated with money but now this deluge has got the feng-shui practitioners thinking that maybe it isn't such a good thing after all.
Along the same lines, there was an article in US News and World Report about the birth in Israel of a pure red heifer. Those who know their Biblical scholarship will be aware of the significance of it - which is too long to go into here. The bottom line of the story, though, was that there hasn't been a pure red heifer born in Israel in some 2000 years of watching for it. According to the article, some of the more radical Orthodox are taking it as THE sign from God that the time has arrived to blow up the Mosques on Temple Mount. Other Rabbis have detected a few white whiskers which they claim invalidates it's purity ( in other words they are trying to diffuse the situation! ) Wouldn't THAT make for some intersting times? ( God help us all! ) As Cherokee says, flux is fluxing away and all it takes is for an unexpected event to push things over the edge.


Date: Mon Jul 07 1997 00:05
Lurker2 Re:Gold buyers>(Re:Gold buyers):

REB: Maybe analagous to the Tiger Fund with Palladium, except on a much grander scale? Who knows. That's no crazier than a lot of other recent market events.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 23:47
REB na>(na):
thoughts re Australia: Instead of seeing news that the RBA has sold gold, why didn't we see news that whoever was on the other side had bought? What occurs is that whoever that was likes the idea of a lower gold price, even though they just bought, because they intend to continue buying. Could RBA have sold to a broker?


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 23:45
Mr. Hashi Moto @peterlorre.com>(@peterlorre.com):

I think I put Gold on Diet. hahaha.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 23:41
Ali @wonderland>(@wonderland):
Hello all,since gold has arrived at a very sore point,lets look at bismuth.Who can give me some info how this metal trades at what price and what are the amounts bismuth trades in?thanks for any replies.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 23:39
Auric error checker>(error checker):

Oops. My last post should have been addressed to NJ.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 23:37
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net):
John ( hepcat ) : Your post was well stated and non-adversarial. I appreciate the change in tone. I am moving 12K out of a gold fund first thing in the a.m. I began with 15K. I am buying electronics, brokerage firms and more Stillwater Mining and my outlook is very short term. I believe gold will turn, but am not as avid as WW has said. I have a neighbor who is a silver numismatic dealer and his business is up 20% this past quarter. ( He also grows really good tomatoes ) . Bill Buckler has reported massive new coin and bullion purchases in Australia this past weekend by individuals. I tried to purchase a 1901 $10 liberty MS-63 from Blanchard and it was back-ordered for a week. So much for anecdotal evidence.

Most of the people here are arguing very good ideas. They are also well diversified with only a couple of self-proclaimed exceptions. Gold doesn't have to go up. It could go to $50 and park for years. I don't believe it will, for reasons stated by G. S. Cole, Vronsky, and Mr. Puetz. This is not an either/or argument. Make money any way you can, and argue for your point of view. If we can all keep our tempers under control then we can learn. Gold is obviously going down for the next few days and quite possibly way down. My goal is to preserve some capital and buy back in later and lower. No trend lasts forever. The business cycle hasn't been repealed. Let's see if George Cole isn't right about an August stock selloff.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 23:36
Auric Gold on a Diet?>(Gold on a Diet?):

Reb-Maybe ol' Hashimoto does need to have another one of them press conferences!


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 23:30
REB na>(na):
John: In response to your questions: I am one of those still betting on a turn around of the gold price.

I can visualize as you suggest that gold could go much lower and stay lower, if nothing ever goes wrong again with the administration of fiat money. I suspect that the fed's good track record since Paul Volcker took over ( and now Greenspan ) has much to do with the current decline. Fear of devaluation of the currency is something that a lot of people today have not experienced. This includes CB's like Australia that have decided they'd rather own debt of other countries than gold.

Is this an irreversible trend? We'll never know. The potential for abuse of fiat currency is something that will never go away.

Just as an aside to ponder how things could change - suppose Japan were to ally with China and the two were to become the mortal enemy of the USA. Would they expect the US continue to tax its citizens to send interest payments on the federal debt to them? In such a situation
gold might look like a more attractive asset to these countries than US debt. I'm not predicting such a thing, but it's an example of how gold could be a more popular asset than it is this evening. It's also an example of how human nature comes into play.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 23:14
Roebear @didIsaythat?>(@didIsaythat?):
BTW about my prediction 320/333. If I am right I was obviously sober and if I am wrong I was obviously not! I had the TA for that forecast but lost it along with the shaker of salt. Good night all.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 23:09
Roebear @Recoveringnicely>(@Recoveringnicely):
Lurker@: Thanks for the invite as long as there are no olives in Margaritas!


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 23:09
NJ dollar>(dollar):
Dollar is falling just as fast as gold. Take a look http://www.abn.com.sg/feeds/currency.html


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 23:06
Lurker2 I am not lurker>(I am not lurker):

Good charts of Gold in Dollars, Yens, and D Marks. Thanks, Cap'n. http://www.the-privateer.com/g-charts.html


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 23:04
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net):
Auric: I agree with your well taken point that there's less gold to go around than stocks. On the other hand, there are even less fine paintings and collectable numesmatics and these haven't held up so well during past recessions, although granted they have less industrial utility than gold. Upon further reflection, I am beginning to think the real wild card that could bid up gold could well be some sizeable government REALLY deciding to back their currency with the stuff. Who knows, maybe the gold Australia sold could be on its way the the Japanese equivilent of Fort Knox as we speak.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 23:00
Este on Mars Pathfinder Mission>(on Mars Pathfinder Mission):
Make sure to visit this incredible Site http://mpfwww.arc.nasa.gov/default.html. The best Postcards of the year. Congratulations NASA! ( I know this is not gold related but some of the recent posts show uncalled for tension and a bit of diversification could prove beneficial ) .


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 22:54
ark saltednut>(saltednut):
BOB @2151: Hmmmm, thanks I needed that. Some one will step
up to the plate. I think you are right.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 22:54
cherokee @they-knew-what-to-do!>(@they-knew-what-to-do!):
geff---

the billions and billions of $$$$ that your and my parents
have saved, is where the money will come from. the generation
before us knew how to save money. until their assets are
disseminated by their heirs, there will be a lot of old money
to buy into gold. my dad has been buying gold and silver coins
for 40 yrs. and still does to this day. the mentality needed
for people to frantically buy gold is just one small chaotic
event away. the flux-man cometh, and the bull run for gold will
leave most standing at the station. this market has confirmation
from all who say-sooth, that gold is dead.--- she sleeps only for
a while,-- awaiting a most noble moment--- for a noble metal. let the
games begin, the real goldbugs are, and always have been, ready.

cherokee!; ) biter of the coin from a non-pugilistic perspective!


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 22:51
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

I talked to a friend in the coin business today - he is not as big as Vollmer's
or Gaithersburg Coin Exchange for bullion in the U.S. but he does a fair amount of
business. I asked him if people were buying or selling gold coins over the last week, and especially over the weekend, and he said selling. He also said that
it has got to turn around soon and that he was in for the long term anyway so
he really didn't care what the price went to short term. He is quite comfortable regarding his income, which I'm sure mirrors the majority of people who contribute
here.
No matter what I post on this site, I am going to be attacked. I am not anti-gold.
I just want to raise two questions, so that I can be educated.
1. Why does the gold price necessarily have to turn around soon? What is it
about gold that makes its turn around an absolute, besides that historically it has always turned around? What makes gold different from, for example, baseball cards? Most people would have no trouble accepting the fact that the sportscard
market is not going to turn around soon and may never return to the levels that
it enjoyed 10 years ago. What about gold is so fundamentally different?
2. What about people who own gold is so fundamentally different that they
cannot even accept the fact that gold might be out of favor with the buying
public? Why is everything cast in terms of conspiracies, and manipulations, when the price of gold drops? Why do you want to invest in something which is
subject to so many outside forces? How can all your intelligence ( and some people at this site are obviously very intelligent ) be at all useful for something which
seemingly depends on whims? How do you get any enjoyment out of analyzing or predicting something which can disappoint you because of facts you didn't have
and never will have access to?
Everyone at this site talks about things going in cycles because
human nature doesn't change. Yet it appears to my untrained eyes that the people who are the most vociferous about this are the best examples of human nature not changing. I don't see anyone drawing a line in the sand and saying,
If gold gets to this price, then I will change my view. Even if it was an
outrageously ridiculous price, like $300. In a way I admire you for having such strength of convictions. But I wonder if it also indicates that you are well-enough off that it doesn't really matter if gold drops another twenty-five dollars.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 22:51
Lurker2 @>(@):

To all: If CBs have leased out more Gold than they possess, they must reimburse their gold creditors in cash. What's to say they won't pay them back at the official Government price at $35 per ounce? Any thoughts?


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 22:49
lurker San Fran>(San Fran):
Vronsky: Furthermore, James Grant is presently the laughing stock on Wall Street. His appearances on Wall Street Week damage his career more than help it. Anybody taking his advice is living in the poorhouse.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 22:44
lurker San Fran>(San Fran):
Vronsky: that post to NotaGoldbug was uncalled for. If people listened to your advice or those on your website, they would be broke a long long time ago. Face it your advice regarding the price of gold has been dead 100% wrong for over a year. I only hope you don't take your own advice seriously. Keep posting your website 5-10 times a day here because there still may be a few goldbugs with money left.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 22:42
Auric @Thoughts>(@Thoughts):

Geff @ 22:24-The total valuation of Gold and Gold Stocks is relatively small in comparison to Real Estate, Stocks or Bonds. It seems to me the problem for Gold has been one of Market allocation. Under deflation it wouldn't take a huge sum to chase Gold up. Maybe some one here has those figures and could post them.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 22:40
Speed time frame>(time frame):
Bob: You are making some great points. When are the mine owners going to do something and when will it be too late? At the current $1.00 per hour drop, we will hit $250 gold by Wednesday.



Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 22:39
panda @>(@):
How about an alternate scenario? The price of gold falls, so do the mining company shares. Who becomes a take-over target at really cheap prices? Who has the most cash? Who needs to increase reserves? Just a thought, nothing more.

If we get any more 'good news' on the disinflation front..... I find it real hard to believe that we are heading towards a deflation/depression. If we are, the shorts will have a hollow victory. The Dollar will never withstand a real deflation. Debt backed instruments will collapse. On the bright side? You'll at least have a fist full of TP. :- ) ) One less cost to worry about while contemplating life on 'the throne'.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 22:24
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net):
Just finished reading George Cole's recent gold eagle posting and would like to open this question to any and all: When the stock market crashes and home/real eatate prices decline and pepole are declaring bankrupcy as a result of over extended credit card accounts--Where are they going to get up the funds to drive gold prices up? Seriously. I don't get it.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 22:19
Scotty @silver.bug.too>(@silver.bug.too):
Can't help but jump in with all the silver talk going on.......Story time: about 7 years ago, I got a call from a fellow coin dealer saying that silver just tanked and this is a great time to get into some hard bullion. So, I said fine and bought some very pretty looking door-stops at $5.44 delivered in 100 oz Engelhards ( complete with cool serial numbers ) . To this day, I have the most expensive doorstops in town ( complete with cool serial numbers ) . My point? I've been waiting for the day I can sell and that day has not come. Of course, my advantage is that I can sit on this forever if I have to. But, a 7% bond would've done mighty fine compared to silver.

However, I've also been waiting for the day when I can change their duty title from door stop to sustinence provider or I tolya so.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 22:12
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
vronsky- had a little storm here this PM and right after the Steve Puetz letter part I and part II were both available. I guess the mistake I have been makin is RELOAD MUST BE DONE ON THE DIGEST PAGE AND NOT WHEN THE ARTICLE APPEARS. I knew I was SLOW!!, but I am learnin.
THANKS FOR YOUR FINE WORK!!!

$250-- DAMN

Tally Ho


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 22:12
TW @home>(@home):
Mike Chesser/good questions are you from South Carolina/ I went to school with a Mike Chesser back in'85 from said state.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 21:57
Bob @....after the forward supply is satisfied then what ?>(@....after the forward supply is satisfied then what ?):
The big gold miners have cash and cash credits sufficient to turn the price of gold around if they formed a marketing group ( Cartel ) much like DeBeers has formed within the diamond trade and let their wallets do the talking.

As the gold price tanks production costs exceed spot and miners who hedged complete their forward sales commitments what happens next ?

The miners will then need to decide to close substantial gold production or buy the metal at lower cost than they could produce it to stay in business.

The shorts could be hammered if an RTZ, BHP, HM, Barrick, or Placer pulls the trigger on a couple billion $US gold long contract ( Barrick alone has this kind of money in the kitty ) .

This is the event that gold needs to turn around. The big producers need to step up to the plate and take care of business before long - especially those ( HM ) that don't have a forward book.

Its the classic decision: make or buy or get out of the way.

The question remains...Are the senior producers interested in building shareholder value or to sit on the sidelines and let the shorts and CBs massacre their ( our ) assets ? After the forward sales are satisfied then what ?

BTW, although gold will continue to be sold by mineral miners who produce it as a byproduct ( Inco, Noranda ) this amount of gold is not sufficient to meet market demand.

Cheers.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 21:54
Test @Test>(@Test):

Test-EBN Gold down $3.30


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 21:30
NotaGoldbug... Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
Vronsky,

Ouch! My ears are burning! I figure I deserved that. I am humbled by your
and Grants prowis and will humbly remove myself from this site...


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 21:24
cherokee @warp-speed>(@warp-speed):
mike--

for currencies to escape manipulation from the taskmasters,
it must have boundaries, such as gold has. there is a finite
amount available, ratio of gold/people is absurdly small,
difficult to profitably mine, survived all recorded history
as a universal medium of exchange.

paper money has no boundaries except those perceived to
be needed by the moneymakers\moneychangers as it fits
THEIR needs. there is an infinite amount, ratio of paper/people
is absurdly large, very easy ( cheap ) to print, has failed throughout
history,-------- and will fail again.

the equal reaction due gold--for every action, there is an equal
and opposite reaction. ------is going to make such a bang as to
make the h-bomb pale in comparison.

let the short sellers continue till we reach 270oz. or better.
this benefits us. -------hello------this benefits us.
buy LOW, sell high? how much lower can gold go? silver?
what does your head vis-a-vis your gut tell you? will we
ever have such an opportunity again? i think not. we should
be jumping for joy! this is our day, with more to come. buy
low. buy low.

chaos and flux have teamed-up with el-nino' to manage the next
round of inclement weather to help the grain-train resume its'
trek up the mountain. our weather has been in a decidedly
un-settled pattern that is increasing in intensity. what is
next? more chaos for the weather, and more chaos for the
ones who tip the scales of life against the norm. flux is closer
than you-cat know.

cherokee!; ) holder of the license for the ssm, seeker of truth, and
slayer of the incendiary flotsam and jetsam of life.



Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 21:20
Lurker2 Kitco forum>(Kitco forum):

Nekkei down 249 or 1.2%. Yen down to 113.20 Yen/Dollar. Gold down. Mr. Hashimoto, how about another press conference?


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 21:20
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Bob M; I agree with $250. I made my calculations about Nov '96 and sold out most of my precious metals holdings based on the idea that $275 was a resonable guess at the average cost of production. The 250 is not in-- but in hindsight the selling at $370-380 looks good. Got some flak when in raised the issue here and elsewhere but all good natured.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 21:12
vronsky STEVE PUETZ LETTER (July 7, 1997)>(STEVE PUETZ LETTER (July 7, 1997)):
Warning sounds in London, Economic Mess in France, Recessionary Trend in Australia & Financial Crisis in Far-East, ALL BODE ILL FOR U.S. Stocks. Looming Crash heralds Gold & Silver bull market:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 21:05
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Few ridicule Mr Dow's 12,000 view:
http://www.brw.com.au/fs_feat9.htm
BOB M: Hi! Good to see you back. I would never have believed your 250 gold forecasts a few months ago, but after hearing it from my sources here, I have been seriously considering your overall scenarios.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:52
Auric @home>(@home):

BobM @ 20:26--First of all, ditto to Lurkers comment on your 20:02 post. My question is, what happens when Governments and CBs go all out to fight deflation? They haven't had to deal with this problem for a long time.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:51
vronsky CREDIBILITY? LOOK WHO IS TALKING!>(CREDIBILITY? LOOK WHO IS TALKING!):
Notagoldbug:

You question James Grant’s credibility? How presumptuous! Let’s consider what is credibility here:

James Grant goes by the name James Grant.
Notagoldbug hides behind one or more handles?

James Grant can be contacted through his publicly known email.
Notagoldbug hides his whereabouts.

James Grant is a veteran analyst known & acclaimed for his abilities -- on a national scale.
Notagoldbug boasts of his “fortune from Real Estate.” Who knows?

Notagoldbug has an un-named friend who lost “millions” - A fictitious person supporting your spurious argument. Is this your “credible” argument that James Grant does not know what he is doing? Gimme a break! And if indeed it were true, you broke a confidence of close friend “...this was between friends” AS YOU SAID. That’s some friendship! He confesses a very discreet failure in his business life, and you blab it all over the Internet. If that is how a “friend” is treated, God help me NOT be your enemy.

Furthermore, do you know of any analyst in any market during Wall Street’s 200 history, who has occasionally not been right in ALL his predictions -- OF COURSE, ...EXCEPTING YOUR INFALLIBLE SELF

And your last two sentences are pathetically transparent. We would all do better if you will sublimate your excess negative energies to more positive and constructive avenues. Why don’t you share more of your market wisdom and studies with us... or do you fear the risk of disapproval, rejection or criticism. Anyone can tear things down, but it takes great effort and dedication to construct.

No doubt you will be motivated to come back with another glib retort to the above, but frankly I do not have time nor inclination for useless, unproductive banter.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:49
Donald @Home>(@Home):
AL, BOB M., AURIC: Whoa! The No. 1 job of a Central Banker is to support the bond market of his host country. Wild swings in the gold and stock market make that difficult. Stock markets are on the wild side in US, UK, France, Germany, HK, and much of Asia. What is a Central Banker to do? You try to talk it down first. Greenspan tried. It Didn't work. Next step? Have a G7+1 meeting. You do, but Japan won't go along. It has a completely different problem from the rest of the world. Why should it?
Now the Central Bankers are forced to act on their own, every man for himself. Greenspan's next step? Stocks are too high, he is already worried what that could do to distrupt his main job, supporting bonds. He already told us that. He doesn't want $500 gold, but niether does he want $200 gold. That screws up his balance sheet and there is a run on the dollar. He has a number in his head for gold and he works to make it happen. Mabye a new margin requirement for all investments? Mabye intervention in the various important markets. Mabye a few personal calls to brokers to tone down their earnings estimates? Who knows. When you make the kinds of investment decisions you are about to make tomorrow you need to think, as best you can, like a Central Banker. Bob M. I can visualize your chart and agree with the shape. I can't accept the several years timeline. Things are moving to fast.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:48
Billd Gold down>(Gold down):
at 8:45 NY time...EBN has gold down $3.40!!! Oh Me...Oh My!!


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:37
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
The trick in the stock market is when to bail out and preserve a big chunk of profit and then buy gold strategically cwhen it is real cheap and let the world slide down around it. I dare to say that the biggest fortunes in gold will be made by the people that currently could care less about gold, but for some reason sell their paper and convert it to gold at the proper time. I know that this is a tough thing to do, but I firmly believe stocks have a long way to go up, unless a major war erupts. The only reason I have heard why stocks should go down is that they are overpriced, no reason of any substance. On the other hand, the only reason I have heard for gold to go up is it is underpriced. That is not enough to drive up a price, especially when just 20 years ago gold was $100 or so an ounce. To the average investor, $300 gold is still not cheap. Gold needs to take out its 1980 low of $250 or so to be viewed by the masses as cheap. Let us remember that the basic driving force of the human race is emotion.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:36
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
The trick in the stock market is when to bail out and preserve a big chunk of profit and then buy gold strategically cwhen it is real cheap and let the world slide down around it. I dare to say that the biggest fortunes in gold will be made by the people that currently could care less about gold, but for some reason sell their paper and convert it to gold at the proper time. I know that this is a tough thing to do, but I firmly believe stocks have a long way to go up, unless a major war erupts. The only reason I have heard why stocks should go down is that they are overpriced, no reason of any substance. On the other hand, the only reason I have heard for gold to go up is it is underpriced. That is not enough to drive up a price, especially when just 20 years ago gold was $100 or so an ounce. To the average investor, $300 gold is still not cheap. Gold needs to take out its 1980 low of $250 or so to be viewed by the masses as cheap. Let us remember that the basic driving force of the human race is emotion.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:32
Mike Sheller remember when?>(remember when?):
BOB M: Actually, same DID happen in '34, to some degree, when the populace's $20 gold pieces were rounded up in exchange for $20 paper. THEN the paper was devalued by a third. It ain't easy being a gold lover at hardly any time in history, is it?


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:28
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net):
EBN gold down 1.45 at the open.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:26
Mike Sheller a home is not just a house>(a home is not just a house):
BOB M: I agree wholeheartedly about purchasing power. That is the essence of my view of a gold standard as a means of taking currency manipulation out of the hands of a monopoly ( govt ) . I was just bemused at the thought of the government once again reneging on a face value instrument when it was embarrassingly inconvenient. If it were to happen to a gold coin, rather than a slip of paper, it would be morbidly ironic.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:25
Lurker Thanks BobM>(Thanks BobM):

BobM. Re 20:02: Very thoughtful post. I copied and saved that one.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:22
Lurker 100 quotes>(quotes):
GCQ7 H-325.80 L-321.00 Last 324.70


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:20
Mike Sheller elite meet greet & bleat>(elite meet greet & bleat):
Since it is obvious that at this hour on Sunday, only the elite are here to man the bunkers at Kitco, I offer this tidbit in light of some of the more literary concerns during the past, ugly, week...
From the great Maestro Ludwig Von Mises' Omnipotent Government, first published 1944, I quote:
All governments are firmly resolved not to relinquish inflation and credit expansion. They have all sold their souls to the devil of easy money. It is a great comfort to every administration to be able to make its citizens happy by spending. For public opinion will then attribute the resulting boom to its current rulers. The inevitable slump will occur later and burden their successors. It is the typical policy of apres nous le deluge. Lord Keynes ( here's the good part ) the champion of this policy, says: In the long run we are all dead.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:19
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
Mike Sheller- if the spot dropped to $38, that would be a tremendous increase in purchasing power! To me the crux of this whole discussion is purchasing power..if a 3 bedroom house is worth a $1000 or a million dollars, its value as a house is still the same..one has to look at the stock and debt markets as being completely overvalued, but, the people putting money in there havent realized it yet and it may take awhile longer...


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:12
Auric a scenario>(a scenario):

BobM-You may be correct. I also think it very possible gold could hit $600 on its route to $200 or lower. If we really get going on the deflation path, Governments and CBs will pull out all stops to fight it.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:11
Mike Sheller brother can you spare an Eagle? >(brother can you spare an Eagle? ):
BOB M: Tho I am one of those $1000 gold folk ( actually 2400 in 2003 ) yours is as valid a call as any. But how ironic it would be if we were to be refused the $50 face value of our Gold Eagles by the Treasury with gold trading at $38!


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:11
Jack Auric>(Auric):

Auric: ( 19:50 ) Never intended for that one to come up, didn't even know it existed; anyway notice who the badmouther's were.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:05
Donald @Home>(@Home):
LURKER: Fireworks to start, Ho-Hum to end. P.S. Everytime I make a prediction like this it is wrong!


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 20:02
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
I am afraid gentlemen, that we have not seen nothing yet on this gold drop. There is still plenty left to go. I believe $250-270 is coming. Gold has to hit a point where speculators and investors feel that the down side risk is negligible. The $250 level would spur a lot of buying and people willing to hold gold for awhile. A bull market in gold will not begin until stocks have peaked, and there is no sign in the world that they have. Stocks are exclusively a supply and demand relationship now, earnings, PEs, etc. are meaningless as long as more money chases fewer stocks, the price will rise. The stock bull could go on for many more years. I have to smile at all these predictions of $1000 an ounce gold, I have been hearing that for 17 years now, and as I have said before, $200 gold is far more likely than $1000 gold. When the stock frenzy does come to an end, deflation will hit the world economies like a hurricane and prices ( including gold will drop..only gold will not drop as far thus gaining in purchasing power ) The $50 face value on gold eagles will someday be relevant as their trading price. Dont get caught up in the belief of high priced gold, if it were going to happen, gold would have moved up gradually with stocks in the last several years. Gold has been signalling a massive deflation for some time now, only most people are reading the data incorrectly, gold is not underpriced, the rest of the debt laden paper world is vastly overpriced. Heed the warning!!


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 19:58
Mike Sheller with you >(with you ):
CMAX: Was I saying anything different? RETIRED: A number of large general mining companies bring out lots of Gold & Silver as the result of copper & other metal mining. A close associate did some promotion for ASARCO many years ago, and I believe they bring up more silver than anybody just as a byproduct of their less glamorous metals. I know a company like Sunshine Mining will stockpile silver when the price gets uncomfortably low for them. I can't say for sure if ASARCO sells at any price, but I would bet they do, now that you bring this up. It's a good insight.The question is what percent of supply of gold & silver is byproduct mining.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 19:55
ACW >():
This http works:

http://www.afr.com.au/content/970707/market/markets4.html


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 19:54
Donald @Home>(@Home):
RETIRED: You are absolutely right. I think that is even more true of silver.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 19:50
Auric @afr>(@afr):

Jack @ 19:38-Good article, Thanks. D.A.--Jack's article quoted Ted Arnold as saying gold will hit $250 before $450. Maybe he would be a taker for your wager!


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 19:45
Jack Try Again>(Try Again):

http://www.afr.com.au:80/content/970707/invest/invest6.html and then http://www.afr.com.au:80/content/970707/invest/invest5.html


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 19:40
Retired @ canadian miner>(@ canadian miner):
There has been a lot of discussion concerning the price of gold and mine closures. I worked for many years for a large base metals company and know that they mine a lot of gold as a byproduct of their other operations and will continue to put gold into the marketplace at any price.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 19:38
Jack So you think Goleta hits below the belt?>(So you think Goleta hits below the belt?):

From Austrialian Financial Review. http://www.afr.com.au:80/content/970707/invest/invest6.html>http://www.afr.com.au:80/content/970707/invest/invest6.html and http://www.afr.com.au:80/ content/970707/invest/invest5.html


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 19:37
Lurker @>(@):

Just for fun, Any prediction on the Far East markets tonight? Fireworks or ho-hum?


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 19:24
Donald @Home>(@Home):
GEORGE COLE: Read your report. Nice job, well said.
BILL BUCKLER: Yours is great too. I like the charts. Let me guess...Delphi 3 software using T-charts from Spain?

This site is great...IQ Power sending sparks sizzling across the planet!
Trading starts soon on the other side of the dateline...markets move on emotion, not fundamentals. I said that for myself as well as the rest of you. Enough said.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 19:02
NJ gold>(gold):
NotaGoldbug : Your 13:11

'My comment to Do nothing is very short term in relation to gold.. Unless your into short selling. I believe, and that may be what is getting my interest up in this site again, gold is at the crux of a very important move.. I’m basically a trader and short ABX currently. It looks very good that ABX will bottom in the next two weeks. This will be a good time to cover and go long. Each days data will tell me more.'

Would you please elaborate this statement. Are you basing the probability of a very important move in gold on any specific reason, or is it based on the all important feel of a good trader.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 18:56
vronsky COLE'S MARKET INSIGHTS>(COLE'S MARKET INSIGHTS):
It will be necessary for many to click RELOAD at the Gold Digest page to see George S. Cole's July 7, 1997 REPORT:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 18:52
vronsky THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)>(THE $85 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Fed’s 262 million oz. Gold at $325)):
“Why has the U.S. - fountainhead of antigold sentiment - NOT SOLD any of its gold while encouraging its allies to sell” - SEE Cole’s Market Insights poignant question:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 18:46
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com):
Shek ( Jul 6 9:13 - 9:27 ) Thank you very much. I should point out, though, that The Privateer comes out every two weeks, not once a month.

No-one seems to have picked up on the fact that buying of gold coin, bars, and jewellery was up tenfold on Friday, after the RBA annoucement. I find that most significant. As I said in the latest issue. commercial buyers don't buy coin, bars and jewellery. Individuals do that. Coin being bullion coin, of course ( Krands, Koalas, Eagles etc. ) .

Today's Australian Financial Review is a good place to sample Aussie reaction to the gold sale. The url is http://www.afr.com.au



Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 18:43
Mike Sheller NAILZ, NOTAGOLDBUG, ALL>(NAILZ, NOTAGOLDBUG, ALL):
NAILZ: It's what makes horseraces. Real estate, in certain locations, is going up now. The NYC area is heating up, and Manhattan is bubbling. Apartments are very interesting in certain areas. And by the way, those who do not learn from the past are bound to detrapolate. NOTAGOLDBUG: I must admit, despite my fondness for gold, and my escapades in corporate astrology ( some of which have been utterly spectacular and even scare ME ) various RE involvements have been the greatest financial blessing ( outside of our health and ability to work ) for the Shellers. ( My wife is in RE, so you know who to ask for insights here ( ( she's also an astrologer! ) ) The trick is, as you implied, to live one's life with a sense of adventure and fun, no matter what the times. What does it profit a man if he gains the world, but loses his soul? ( A great investor once said that ) .
ALL: Take Vronsky's advice. Judy Shelton is a monster. And she does it without a horoscope. Check her out. She is #1.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 18:39
Jack Last two paragraphs - interesting>(Last two paragraphs - interesting):

Read the last two paragraphs of this article http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/05/y0023_z00_4.html ,or check here at gold daily news.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 18:36
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NOTAGOLDBUG: Some of the rich didn't even know it was happening. They were pretty callous. I have a friend, now nearly 90, who was very rich. His father owned a car dealership, he had a Pierce-Arrow and all the women he wanted when he was at college during the Depression. Now he is nearly broke. He retired and sold the dealership for a small down payment to someone who looted it and took it into bankruptcy. He sees the world differently now and I think he is a much nicer man than when he was rich. Its better to get whatever you get from your own hard work. It means more to you than that which falls into your lap. My wife had a tougher childhood than I did. She had to walk along the railroad tracks looking for coal that had fallen off of trains. When you have experiences like those you see life differently. I lived next door to my grandfather. He helped us out from time to time. My father was fluent in several languages and stayed employed for three days a week as a linotype operator because he had that rare combination of language and typing skill. My mother was a farm girl, we always had chickens hanging from the clothes line, plenty of eggs, spent summer days like today going along the roadside picking wild grapes. That stuff brings families together, just as your father said.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 18:34
Lurker @>(@):

Roebear: LOL! You must come to the Kitco bash!


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 18:30
NotaGodbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
Vronsky:

James Grant has been a bull on gold, I believe sense 95 or so.. His is a
perma bear on the market.. I have a close friend who knows James
personally and on James’s recommendation ( this was between friends ) told
him to short he market big time in early 1995. Subsequently he lost,
and I’m not exaggerating, millions.. My friend could afford the loss but
I really don’t think Grant is a credible individual to quote.. He has been
wrong and that is all there is to it.. Do significant errors with regards to
recommendations mean anything Your comments are interesting
none the less..



Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 18:16
vronsky MONEY MELTDOWN by Judy Shelton>(MONEY MELTDOWN by Judy Shelton):
REF: Cmax ( to: Mike Sheller ( but no astrology ) ) - I could not agree with you more that any serious currency meldown can ONLY be remedied by GOLD BACKING OF PAPER MONEY. For serious research studentS who seek rationale for this considered opinion, may I suggest the most comprehensive and contempory work on this subject: MONEY MELTDOWN by Economist Judy Shelton. Ms Shelton is a former Senior Research Fellow at the Hoover Institute ( Stanford University ) . IMO there is NO better treatise on the subject. With a view to qualififying Ms Shelton's impeccable professional credentials, may I mention she is also the author of THE COMING SOVIET CRASH - which IN 1989 accurately pinpointed what happened in the soviet Union just one year later. Subsequently, the likes of Zbigniew Brzezinski and James Grant. Brzezinski recognized Ms Shelton as a brilliant international policy analyst. And James Grant's ( Editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer - and OFT Louis Rukeyser quest, who recently said most gold stocks are now a BUY ) review of her MONEY MELTDOWN was: An informed plea for sound money and solvent public finances from the woman who brilliantly foretold the bankruptcy of the Soviet Union. It is a MUST READ for those who hope to see the future international monetary scene clearly -- AND PROFIT BY IT!


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 18:15
6pak Deflation @ A Resolve is needed fast !>(Deflation @ A Resolve is needed fast !):
Additional point of view, regarding previous post this day.

A loss of gold reserves would immediately manifest itself in a loss of
currency, curtailment of economic activity and deflation.

In the early years of the paper system, the central banks maintained a
tight grip on money creation through regulation of the banking system.

Not so today: after eleven ( 11 ) years of deregulation, there have been
fundamental structural changes such as *disintermediation* of the credit
markets - a way of bypassing the formal banking system to create new
sources of money - and securitization of assets by banks - the bundling
of debt into investment packages to create securities such as
* mortgage-backed securities *

As a result, the links between money, economic activity, inflation and
gold have become much looser.

NO, the Conspiracy theory is not in effect, it is a simple fact, that
business, is taking care of business, exactly what they are expected to
do, look after the best interests of their respective share-holders.

Government, is expected to represent the interests of government.

Labour Unions, are expected to represent the interests of their members.

Average Joe, well, he can be expected to, be Quiet - Consume - and Die.

Jay Gould 1886:
I can hire one half the working class to kill the other half

The reality of deflation,is a sick economic system, and people will die.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 18:14
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
Donald:

The ABX/XAU relationship is very easy.. If ABX goes to US16.00 XAU will be
close to 80.. I have suggested 85,a while back, as my target for XAU and that still
stands..



Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 18:08
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
Donald,

The Indians were interesting people I respect their wisdom.. The great depression
was fascinating and yes my father ( now deceased ) was in the thick of it. Though he
held no hidden scars and really, looking back, had a lot of fun during those tough
times.. He lived in Detroit and always chuckled about prohibition and loosing
everything.. He mentioned that it brought the family much closer together.. I really
don’t know if we can prepare ourselves for catastrophic events such a the depression.
The next financial debacle will be different, I suppose, and something to talk about.

I had an old friend, an architect who died recently, that was very bitter about the
depression.. He attributed it to all the pain in his life.. He had graduated from
Princeton and just loathed the rich of that era.. Actually blaming them for the whole
mess.. Even on his death bead he was bitter. I tried in vain to tell him to let it go but
he clung to it like a blanket.. Why?
.





Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 18:05
Donald @Home>(@Home):
AUROPHILE: Doesn't ABX and PDG account for a very large part of the XAU? What is you feeling on that?


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 17:55
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):

To Aurophile:

I also have a last ditch target of US$16.00 for ABX. The next few weeks will
be very interesting indeed.. Thank you for Granville’s comments, he has been
hot lately and by the way very bullish on the overall market suggesting we
are in a new era.. What ever that means!? :D


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 17:41
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NOTAGOLDBUG: I do live it up, I have no complaints for myself. The indians had a feeling about the world that I like. They felt that you didn't own the land, you were only temporary custodian of it. Your duty as a good indian was to leave a place better than you found it. I was born during the Great Depression, I carry that invisible scar that never lets you forget how tough times were. I actually think that hard times are good for us. They were for me, but only in retrospect. I bet your father knows what I mean.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 17:33
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
fwiw dept.: Joe Granville is said to have predicted a gold meltdown last Monday. In a weekend report he is said to have predicted US$15 for Barrick and US$9 for Placer Dome. He's been hot for a year.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 17:31
Cmax to: Mike Sheller (but no astrology)>(to: Mike Sheller (but no astrology)):
All this talk about the impracticality of gold as a possible future currency, due to the impossibility of being able to buy a stick of gum or loaf of bread, is mute. Of course it can, using debit-cards that are linked to your gold deposit account. The electronic bytes do this for you, and without fractional banking ( a la e-gold ) . In a real currency meltdown, the ONLY way to restore stability FAST is with 100% gold backing. Period.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 17:28
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
Donald:

You may be right.. All my real-estate holdings are paid in full so I
personally don’t worry.. The only thing I owe on is my BMW and I figured that
it was poor judgement to put $50.000.00 into a auto.. By the way anyone here own
the new 5-series? Its a really fine auto! Makes me want to invest in
the company!

You talk as if the entire world is going to crumble.. I personally hope
your wrong. Such a fatalistic attitude.. Why worry so much You only
live once ( I think ) and at least for me at 45 I’m more than half way through.
So, live it up a little!

Anyone out there trading ABX I am watching this weakness to go long.
And the 1/17/97 $15.00 calls ( ABXAC ) will probably get more reasonable over
the next week or so.. There is very little premium in these now, but as the
stock moves towards the strike this will undoubtedly change.



Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 17:13
Donald @Home>(@Home):
CMAX: An earlier poster from Australia says a mining insider indicates that South Korea was the buyer.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 17:05
Cmax @Venezuela>(@Venezuela):
How is it in our modern world of “transparancy” of transactions that are so bandied about by our goverments, that Central Banks can sell billions of “public property” ( gold ) and not report as to who the buyers are Something here is backwards.

HHHH- Excellent observation:
If we were in a bull mrkt, the spin would have been, xyz central bank ( s ) bought gold 167 tons of Oz gold during the last 6 months.
Who says gold’s image is not intentionally manipulated, and is only reacting to market pressures of supply and demand? As usual, the meaning and sequence has been turned around and people get lost in their own !@#$....manipulation of gold’s image has caused it's poor perception, causing momentary lack of interest. Supply still remains much lower
than demand. This dangerous form of economic counter-publicity is ultimately selfdefeating.



Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 17:04
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NOTAGOLDBUG: That was the past. It is over, over, over. Real estate will be blown away when the stocks go. It won't be so apparent but most of the real estate you pass by on your way to wherever is leveraged to the moon. And the mortgages have been packaged into CMO's, pensions are infected with them. EVERYBODY is tapped out except a few goldbugs who see this whole 70 year crapshoot about to unravel. There is no real money anywhere. 55 Trillion in what will soon be worthless derivitaves. Banks, insurance companies, 300 year old companies like Barings, Sumitomo, Nomura are letting kid riverboat gamblers run their trading operations. The Savings & loan thing papered over with money out of the pockets of widows and orphans who trusted the banks. Every Tom, Dick & Harry took his lousy 2% money out of the banks as a result and put it in the Stock Market. A recent survey says 40% think their stocks are government insured, etc, etc, etc. One stumble like Penn Central or WT Grant in 1974, Continential Bank or any one of thousands brings the whole thing down.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 17:00
nailz NOTAGOLDBUG>(NOTAGOLDBUG):
Some of us are blessed ( cursed ) with a vision outside of today. Some omly see today or yesterday.... Look at the posts earlier today and you have peole discussing what will happen probably well into the next century and you have people talking about what is going on today....Others are discussing what happened 20 or 50 years ago.....There is a time and place for it all...When and where are the keys...

For instance, gold will go up sometime, but when ? Real estate will go up, but when ? Paper assets will be worthless someday, but when ? So, I say that some look at today, and some look at yesterday. Some look for tomorrow.....Suffice it to say, we may all be right in our thoughts....SOMEDAY.....

Oh my, oh my..... Should I extrapolate today or intrapolate DOES THE PAST TEACH OR CONFUSE


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 16:38
Roebear @Yeehahhhhh>(@Yeehahhhhh):
DUnald: ( HIC! ) Popeye, yew betcham didch I ever telll ye about HairliP
Awww nefer mind, need a feww more fer thet one! GOld to 320, then 333 Monday close ( hic ) .


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 16:34
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):

Mike Sheller & Donald:

My personal fortune has resulted from some lucky investments in real-estate.
When people say gold is a inflation hedge I look at my real-estate investments
sense 1980 many have gone up 2000% and gold has gone, no where. And many,
because they are commercial, keep paying while they keep growing in value.
Now, I still like to trade gold but I think it just basically stands on it’s own.. I keep
saying this but I really don’t think people hear it. Gold is just a commodity
subject to its own supply demand characteristics. The stigma that is attached
to it amazes me.. People get just fanatical about it. Humans, irregardless of their
intellect, are drawn to want to believe that gold has some value that goes beyond
its usefulness. It is also very hard to argue with someone who feels gold will
be the last bastion of hope, financially, someday.

I am not really real intellectual and possibly this saves me from thinking of all
the worst possible outcomes governments will have on their currencies. I just
don’t worry about it much.




Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 16:33
Roebear @HirsheeHoshimatowhatever>(@HirsheeHoshimatowhatever):
Mike: Ithaught theressomethin funnnegoein on here? Martinis? Ain't they fer brokers?


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 16:33
Donald @Home>(@Home):
ROEBEAR: I thought Olive went with Popeye? Couples today, I don't know it's coming to!


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 16:32
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):


To Donald..

Answering your comment:

My point is: can I get you to agree that the current day equivalent of doing nothing is taking physical delivery of metal?

That is just not my way.. I am to 20th century to believe that physical gold is a proper
vehicle for your idle cash. I could be wrong. I love real-estate, and if I was not trading
I would convert my trading account there. Gold just has no appeal to me other than
the warm feeling on gets when holding it.. This is an each to his own thing and if
you enjoy physical gold I would encourage you to buy.. I also do not like gold coins..
The premium, just because they are a coin, is to much.. Just my opinion again. I know
many think we will be using gold coins again to buy goods and services but when
that happens I hope my life is over.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 16:24
nailz TRASHMAN COMETH>(TRASHMAN COMETH):
DONALD and ALL........That is common where I live...In a small city of 50k and in the uppermiddle class neighborhood....The garbage man cometh on Thursday, preceeded on Wednesday afternood and several times on Thursday morning by people in pick up trucks scavaging. Haven't seen any in the cans though. They just go for the big stuff outside the can. You wouldn't believe some of the junk they will get....An old couch or chair won't last an hour....One took an old aluminum garbage can I was throwing away that had half the bottom rusted out of it.....


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 16:11
Paul funky wienerbean>(funky wienerbean):
on your couch pick-up story...we renovate and rent apts...so if somebody
is throwing out something that we can use..we stop and pick it up...if we
can fit it into our 95 LandCruiser...true and its hilarious to see their
faces...


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 16:09
Mike Sheller Only had Tee Martunis>(Only had Tee Martunis):
ROEBEAR: How many times do you have to be told, the olive goes in the Martini, not the Margarita.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 16:04
Mike Sheller don't turn your back>(don't turn your back):
While everyone had their eyes on the price of gold on Thursday, it seems that the 30 year bond peeped its head above our vaunted 113 level. If the uptrend continues Monday, then all the stockmarket bears had better have a few Margaritas, or Martinis, and settle back in the sun for a while. The Bond looks to be coming out of that Rhino triangle on the weekly chart, and if so, stox are going to be positively nauseating to them's what's been calling for imminent collapse. This could put a topping pattern forward into the late Fall!
When prices come out of a Rhino ( or most triangles ) they often do it on sharp upmove days, back to back. Thursday looked like Day ONE. If Monday is Day TWO, the bond will be running on stilts. Don't get in its way.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 15:57
Mike Sheller They can't print more land & houses either>(They can't print more land & houses either):
NOTAGOLDBUG: Have to agree with you on Real Estate. Am currently involved in an RE situation for rental. The numbers are too enticing. A 15-17% net return on cash invested, leading to equity doubled in under 6 years makes some of these potentials attractive come inflation or deflation. SEVERE deflation of equity would, of course, reduce that return - but would it crush it to less than a CD? Perhaps, but barely. Even the Great Depression RE deflation averaged around 30-50% in 3 years. On the other hand, with inflation the equity gets an additional boost. Alas there's risk in everything. A chunk here, a chunk there.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 15:46
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NOMERCY: Do you get Funky Winkerbean in your Sunday comic pages? Today there was a cartoon strip about just what your article ( Canoe-Delaney ) says. In the strip a young couple are tossing out their old couch. They leave it on the street for the trashman. They go back in the house and watch out the window as a passerby with a pickup truck grabs it. The punch line is If this is what it's like when times are good what's it going to be like when the bad times come?


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 15:42
George S. Cole forward selling>(forward selling):
Ted Butler: Right on my friend! The one good thing about the Australian gold sale is that it might make it more difficult for the OZ miners to sell forward. But no one mining firm can stop this by itself in the current bear market. It must be a joint undertaking by the many. The miners have not hung together on this issue and now they are hanging separately.



Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 15:33
nomercy do they know where we're headed>(do they know where we're headed):
...Canadians are still going broke as economy barrels ahead......it's a real conundrum... Tom Delaney, independent financial advisor, it's a real problem that economists have a tought time to put their finger on
http://www.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Bankruptcy-Conundrum.html


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 15:20
6pak No shortages @ Elite of the World>(No shortages @ Elite of the World):
Milhouse Is Gold still a store of value @ Gold-Eagle site.
Great article, but, not acceptable to my expectations of the future.

The talk on the street, suggests, the opposite result, to the very
thoughtful, and well presented article. Yes, using the exact reasons
presented in the article. Yes, gold is a store of value.

When a person, walks down the main streets of Canada, and one takes the
time to communicate to his fellow citizen, one is struck by the
confusion, and tired talk, of one's fellow citizen.

In the main, the talk is such: What the hell is going on, one works
long hours, contributes to family, and friends, as best one can, yet,
it gets worse, and worse. What is in store for his children, and their
children. Taxes, debts, retirement, fear, *money*

It comes down to *one* question: WHAT THE HELL, IS GOING ON ?

Referencing, Financial Times--The Gold Book--Pierre Lassonde. ( 1993 )

In 1990 the European economies were strong while the North American
economies were entering a recession.

If this scattered growth can be sustained, gold will probably continue
to trade mainly as a commodity with the price being set by jewelry
demand and economic growth. GOLD as an investment would remain unattract-
ive and the price would likely stabilize in a fairly narrow bracket of
US$ 350 to US$ 400 per ounce.

What if the growth can't be sustained? If the world sinks into true global deflation, the price of gold would rise dramatically as worthless
paper money is converted into a hard currency - GOLD.

The price to which gold would be propelled would depend on the magnitude
of the collapse. If it were restricted to only North America, gold would
react only modestly, perhaps reaching US$ 600 an ounce.

If the entire global economy slid into depression it could reach dramatic
new highs of over US$1,000 an ounce.

The economic plight is repeated in Canada, where the central bank has
squeezed out inflation but at a terrible cost to the economy.

North America faces three ( 3 ) possible economic scenarios - deflation -
growth without inflation - or more inflation.

The material referenced above, is presented by a person that represents
the gold interests, yes, he references inflation, also.

I have used his quotes' as per my take & feeling, to provide a deflationary position. I expect deflation, unfortunately, the Elite of the world, have not been able to stop, the future trials, of a consumer economy. We do have over production of consumer products. There are no shortages ! Only, a shortage of valuable cash, it is gone into debts, and retirement savings ( out of fear. ) The Consumer is BROKE, spiritually, emotionally.

Soooo, is it *Inflation* or *Deflation*, North American style, or World
style. I expect it has started in North America, and will be at the World
level by this time next year. ( 1930 - 25 % unemployment, 75 % working )
( unemployment amongst the Canadian youth is estimated at 25 % to 30 % )

Labour: human activity that provides the goods or services in an economy
;: the services performed by workers for wages as distinguishing from
those rendered by entrepreneurs for profits.
;: expenditure of physical or mental effort esp. when difficult or
compulsory.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 15:16
ted butler tedjbutler@aol.com>(tedjbutler@aol.com):
I kind of have to laugh at Aussie miner Joe Gutnick's outrage at the RBA's sale ( see nomercy's 12:19 url ) . Of all the bad things said about the sale ( most of which I agree with ) , let me say one good thing - it appears to be an honest transaction, i.e., it gets paid straight up for merchandise delivered straight up, as distinguished from the crooked leases and forward sales a lot of miners and CBs are involved in. One can at least monitor sales by CBs, try doing that with leases, which are just about impossible to track. If the people of Oz disagree with the sale, they'll make it known, if it was a lease they'd never know, which is the point. Gutnick admits in the article his company has sold over 2 million ozs forward and seems more concerned about the availability of the cash up front that forward selling generates than the low prices the whole loan/forward selling scam has generated ( I guess that means he favors short sales vs. long sales ) Just to put it perspective, the RBA sale is about 15% of the annual amount of gold dumped on the market as result of leases, according to the WGC.

If the hedging miners think these low prices are a problem, wait till prices explode - then they will truly be in a world of hurt.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 15:14
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NOTAGOLDBUG: OK, no more missionary work on you! You can't be converted! I like real estate too, I own my home and it is fully paid for. I wouldn't move for the world. Even though I think it is overpriced and a lousy investment. A thousand years of history says real estate is only worth 100 times the monthly rent. Most homes in America have a bigger ticket than that on them. When I was a kid, September, 1939, I remember when my father sold the house we lived in for $2000. The house is still there and doing fine. ( I didn't leave off any zeroes ) .


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 15:00
Roebear @HersheyonthewagonNot>(@HersheyonthewagonNot):
ALL: I don usually drink can you tell? But now I can blame it on gold!
( BBUURRPPPP! )


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 14:57
Roebear @HersheyondeNile>(@HersheyondeNile):
TO ALL: My compliments to No mercy, Front, the omnipresentandappreciated vronsky, IDT, Miro, NotaGoldbug, Mooney ( wish I was rich like U ) ,Ron ( nice post ) and the ineffable Mike Sheller for holding down the fort 4th of July weekend since noon. Now for anoudder Margarita at the pool ( hic )


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 14:34
Ron Pretty Indicator>(Pretty Indicator):
http://www.tiac.net/users/kaleberg/maria/maria.html


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 14:32
Mike Sheller rattling the change>(rattling the change):
Lest anyone think that I am among those who look forward to us citizens buying things with gold coins, please abandon that notion. The point of a return to a specie ( gold or silver or both ) standard is merely a natural curative for paper note mismanagement. It will come as surely as a pendulum swings because there will come a day when paper note mismanagement will not be repairable. Then, for a time, which may be decades, or hundreds of years, notes will be by law exchangeable for a specific commodity. This process will regulate both the value of the commodity ( within the limits of supply and demand ) and the value and quantity of the notes. Paper money, or token coin, or credit cards and kilobytes will still be used as convenient proxies for the gold in storage behind every decimal printed out on monitor and paper bill. Tha's all. It's really no big deal. It just takes enough people catching on and getting fed up, or having the roof fall in for a decade or two of chaos. Usually it's the latter. I'm the first to tell you this is not necessarily an INVESTMENT or SPECULATIVE concept. It is merely an historical one. But one would be well served to be long a tad of the shiny yello should the day arrive.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 14:21
Mike Sheller A B ZZZZZ>(A B ZZZZZ):
MOONEY: Early to bed ( most of the time ) and early to rise has made me at least healthy.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 13:39
Roebear @HersheyondeNile>(@HersheyondeNile):
Milhouse: I will second IDT's motion and ask for any additional reasons you have for silver going way down. I do not believe digital cameras will pose a threat to silver for 6-12 months minimum and even then not a sudden significant impact.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 13:29
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):


To Donald..

Answering your comment:

My point is: can I get you to agree that the current day equivalent of doing nothing is taking physical delivery of metal?

That is just not my way.. I am to 20th century to believe that physical gold is a proper
vehicle for your idle cash. I could be wrong. I love real-estate, and if I was not trading
I would convert my trading account there. Gold just has no appeal to me other than
the warm feeling on gets when holding it.. This is an each to his own thing and if
you enjoy physical gold I would encourage you to buy.. I also do not like gold coins..
The premium, just because they are a coin, is to much.. Just my opinion again. I know
many think we will be using gold coins again to buy goods and services but when
that happens I hope my life is over.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 13:15
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Front, my friend, If I am not so in reality, at least I am in spirit!


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 13:11
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
To Donald:

My comment to Do nothing is very short term in relation to gold..
Unless your into short selling. I believe, and that may be what is
getting my interest up in this site again, gold is at the crux of a
very important move.. I’m basically a trader and short ABX currently.
It looks very good that ABX will bottom in the next two weeks. This
will be a good time to cover and go long. Each days data will tell me
more.



Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 12:55
Miro @Bob - I check my calculation >(@Bob - I check my calculation ):
Oops, let that be a lesson for me thay shall not use your brain for
converting tons to ounces and calculating price - thay shall use a
calculator my brain is not calibrated for so many zeroes and slipped
three more of them in there :- (
Agreed, gold was a looser last year comparing to other investments. My
point was that the price of gold fluctuates less and holds its price
pretty well despite the dropping demand and heavy selling. High fliers
on stock market sometimes gain and loose 50% in a matter of days. This
means that gold comparing to other investment is still a good place to
put your money when things go wrong in financial market. If I thought
that things will be all well in coming years I would not be on this
forum - I would be on S&P unlimited forum ;- )


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 12:39
IDT IDT@the archive>(IDT@the archive):
Milhouse: If you look at Orpailleur's summary ( on Gold-Eagle ) of a May 97 speech by Martin Armstrong, founder of Princeton Economics, you will note that he prints a projection of $18 silver once the bull market gets in gear. This seems to be a direct contradiction of your post that he feels that silver is a lousy investment and will fall to $3.25. Can you clarify this for us? Has he changed his mind since May?


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 12:33
vronsky JAPAN BETWEEN ROCK & HARD SPOT: PART - III (July 7, 1997)>(JAPAN BETWEEN ROCK & HARD SPOT: PART - III (July 7, 1997)):
SORRY, this URL should work:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle707.html


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 12:29
vronsky Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - III (7 July 1997)>(Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - III (7 July 1997)):
JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK & HARD SPOT: To Dump U.S. Treasuries & Buy GOLD! ( PART - III ) . BOJ’s June 27 Balance Sheet & Foreign Central Bank Holdings of T-Bonds:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle707.html>http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle707.html
Oracle has expanded on initial findings of Barron’s Randall W. Forsyth and Internet’s Economist George S. Cole. Land of the Rising Sun plagued with financial difficulties, choking on T-Bond indigestion, exacerbated by a pittance gold position, must reduce excessive dollar exposure to stabilize Yen parity. Due to the BOJ’s Balance Sheet & chart of Foreign Central Bank Holdings of Treasuries, the website is a little slow to fully load - HOWEVER, I GUARANTEE YOUR PATIENCE WILL BE AMPLY REWARDED:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle707.html


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 12:21
Front To REB>(To REB):

I agree with Mooney...ALL rich guys think that way! I mean, just ask Mooney ! ( ;- )

TTFN


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 12:19
nomercy down but not out>(down but not out):
Joseph Gutnick's ( Australian mining entrepreneur ) reaction to RBA sale
http://www.newsalert.com/free/story?StoryId=Cm7X1qb8Zu1LemZi1ndK&FQ=gold&Query=gold


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 11:50
Front To Milhouse>(To Milhouse):

Milhouse:

You were absolutely correct sir, You did mention that the information was from Princton Economics. It was my error that I assumed you were associated with them in some manner. On the other hand, anyone who brings that type of accuracy to Kitco at least deserves the Prince of Kitco award ( :- ) ... Maybe Earl will take over being the King ( at least a stand in ) since he had it last. Thanks for the posts from Princeton and please keep them coming.

TTFN


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 11:37
Mooney @Mike.Sheller>(@Mike.Sheller):
Re: Your 6:40 - 'The time has come ( 'my friends' )
To talk of many things: ...'

BTW - Don't you even occasionally sleep in on Sunday?


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 11:25
Mooney @REB>(@REB):
Of Course They Do!


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 11:21
vronsky IS GOLD STILL A STORE OF VALUE?>(IS GOLD STILL A STORE OF VALUE?):
International market pundit Milhouse questions the common-sense of Australia’s CB selling 2/3s of its gold reserves at historically low prices. He foresees higher inflation & money supply - see Guest Guru Milhouse:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 11:17
nomercy angry producers>(angry producers):
Australian prime minister John Howard, is keynote speaker later on this month re: gold industry's annual conference...isn't he brave...or
http://www.theage.com.au/daily/970705/bus/bus6.html


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 11:06
REB na>(na):
Thoughts re gold price: The average cost of production seems to be around $300, give or take $50 or so, considering comments made here from various sources.

If I owned a lot of gold, I believe I would anticipate that exploration and mining would diminish greatly if price languishes for long in the area of $300 or below. ( Barring a technological breakthrough lowering mining costs ) . Which would mean that there would be no more new supply after a few years. I don't think I would want to sell below $300, as such a low price is not likely to be sustained. ( And this is without even considering the credit risk and/or inflation hazards related
to paper money. )

Do the owners of large hordes of gold think this way? I don't know.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 11:05
Shek sborkowski@dmci.net>(sborkowski@dmci.net):
From Yahoo news: ...Many Wall Streeters believe that the market, which is one of the most the reliable economic indicators, will stand up to the earnings challenge. After the earnings odyssey, they see smooth sailing for the market.
Blue skies of 1929 is here again.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 10:52
Donald @Home>(@Home):
NOTAGOLDBUG: Yesterday you suggested that often a good strategy is to do nothing. Let me counter that doing nothing in 1997 is a lot different than doing nothing before 1933. By that I mean when ( in my case, grandfather ) wanted to get out of the market and was concerned with the quality of other investments such as bonds or realestate he could cash in with beautiful St. Gaudens $20's or silver dollars. You can't do that today. As a poster said yesterday, a silver Maple Leaf still gets you a burger and fries Yes it gets you that, and a lot more. It gets you a safe investment and peace of mind. My point is: can I get you to agree that the current day equivalent of doing nothing is taking physical delivery of metal? Some of the posters here seem to be trying to get rich. Many though, I suspect, are just trying to maintain the same standard of living they have today. They only want to keep even.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 10:45
Mike Sheller confused say: bottom is up, top soon down>(confused say: bottom is up, top soon down):
CONFUSED: You don't sound so confused to me. Least you're not in denial. STEVE ( PERTH ) : Last time gold was 120 in '76 it was recovering fromcorrecting 50% from 200. It had run from $42 in 1972 to 200 in '75. Don't forget that gold was officially pegged at 32-42 dollars from 1934 to 1972. Amazing what free trade can do to a chunk of metal. $120 gold today would be the symptom of an aberration or tragedy far greater than the shenanigans of central banks and leased sales.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 10:25
Steve - Perth @reality bites the market>(@reality bites the market):
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970706/business/stories/stocks_53.html


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 10:13
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Some of Australia's top fund managers, Alan Beasley & Anton Tagliaferro of BNP says it is hard to find stocks that are worth buying now. It is increasingly difficult...we can't necessarily see where the value is coming from...all the good news has been factored into stock prices. I wonder if they have been looking at coal stocks lately


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 09:27
Shek sborkowski@dmci.net>(sborkowski@dmci.net):
Especially Bill Buckler's monthly electronic newsletter. Just finished reading the latest issue. Great insights!!!


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 09:21
Roebear @HersheyondeNile>(@HersheyondeNile):
For any new goldbugs lurking, Captain Bill has some great charts/ commentary on Gold Bottoms recently updated. Is it really different this time? Comments anyone? http://www.the-privateer.com/g-bottom/g-bottom.html


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 09:13
Shek sborkowski@dmci.net>(sborkowski@dmci.net):
It is my opinion that Bill Buckler's The Privateer should be required reading for all Kitco contributors and lurkers.
Thanks Bill.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 08:49
Speed @reading>(@reading):
Quantifying irrational exuberance:
The Wilshire Associates Equity Index -- which represents the combined
market value of all NYSE, American and Nasdaq issues -- ended the
week at $8.639 trillion, up $239.6 billion from last week. A year ago, the index stood at $6.498 trillion.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 08:47
bw Gunning the stops:>(Gunning the stops:):
If you have long term weekly charts, go back and examine the action just before the real big bull moves in any commodity. Just before the bull gets started there is often a sharp move down. This is caused by the strong hands gunning the stops. Most of the time you already have your position but cannot resist picking up some freebies for the long ride ahead. There are lots of ways to do it. Selling 10 physicals while at the same time buying 100 futures is the clasic. Perhaps the action we are seeing today in gold is the mother of all stop gunning.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 08:37
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepol.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepol.com.au):
EARL: Re: your excellent graph on 5th July, 11.42. Looking further back, gold actually fell below US$120 ( 1976 ) before hitting $800+ in 1980. I remember high in my final year of high school. The kids were raving about it on the upstairs balcony. So, it gold has been down there before, but not for a long time.

JOHN DISNEY: I believe the French Connection is a precious metal's company ( employee/s ) . Let's face it, we haven't really had a REAL depression for a long time either. 1990/91 was NOT a fully blown depression. At lunch today, some of my cronies were saying there is something in the wind, & it isn't good. Another stock broker was agreeing with me that there is something wrong, but he couldn't put his finger on it. In this week's Business Review Weekly in Australia, John McIntosh, one of Australia's more famous stockbrokers, says he owns very little in the way of shares, having sold after deciding that the market was too high FOUR MONTHS AGO!!! The warning signs are EVERYWHERE! All we need is the disaster now. But imagine, what WOULD happen if gold got down to $125 an ounce I hope it doesn't, but stranger things have happened.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 08:11
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Donald: Thanks for the posts and info. BTW, your 06:30, I'm taking your word for it and skipping church this AM.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 08:05
bw The sagacious central banks:>(The sagacious central banks:):
The central banks seem to be quite a player in the gold market these days. Back in the 1960s they were larger yet. The rage back then was paper gold I believe it was called sdrs. Seems there was not enough physical gold then and people needed to be soothed with paper gold. Funny they never explained why there was suddenly not enough gold but that is another story. Since there was no difference between paper gold and physical gold a central bank could settle its obligations with another central bank by delivering either. To prove that paper gold was as good as real gold the usa delivered a small amount of our physical gold, something like a few thousand ounces I believe. We figured others would be impressed by this action and would also deliver physical gold thus cementing the interchangability of the two forms of gold. Well the rest of the world was impressed. To this date no one has been as stupid. Including us.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 08:02
Roebear @HersheyondeNile>(@HersheyondeNile):
I suppose it is all very simple. Either we are really entering into a brave new world where a fundamental paradigm shift has left us goldbugs stacked in the archives with the buggy whip investors of yesteryear or this is just another wiggle on the ultimate 7,000 year gold chart. In which case its just a matter of which floor on the gold elevator you get off and whether you are riding that elevator for an up destination or down. I will admit, and I am new to pm/pm stocks, that this is the first time I have been caught for more than 5% in a change of trend without having reversed. Ah, that beguiling gold and seductive silver I may have become a ( AARRGH ) buy and hold investor, as the saying goes, involuntarily.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 07:39
confused pondering@home>(pondering@home):
My confusion eases not. Gold is the financial thread that has weaved throughout the warp and weft of history ( sorry about that! )
Why should everyone decide at the same time that gold's not worth mining. Or are we at the furtherest swing of the pendulum and about to swing on an exciting journey towards its opposite? Or am I a classic gold bug - now squashed and in severe denial?



Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 07:34
confused pondering@home>(pondering@home):
My confusion eases not. Gold is the financial thread that has weaved throughout the warp and weft of history ( sorry about that! )
Why should everyone decide at the same time that gold's not worth mining. Or are we at the furtherest swing of the pendulum and about to swing on an exciting journey towards its opposite? Or am I a classic gold bug - now squashed and in severe denial?



Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 07:12
Donald @Home>(@Home):
This from Taiwan: The account value of Taiwan central
bank's gold reserves has dropped by T$9.2 billion ( $330 million ) after sharp declines in the
price of the yellow metal in the past two months, the Economic Daily News said on Sunday. -
Jul 05 11:49 PM EDT


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 07:08
Donald @Home>(@Home):
This from Dubai: Gold's plunge to a 12-year price low has
stimulated retail turnover in Dubai's local jewellery and bullion markets but the main re-export
trade to India remained sluggish, traders in the Gulf emirate said on Sunday. - Jul 06 4:22 AM
EDT


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 06:49
Mike Sheller Midnite in Moscow>(Midnite in Moscow):
Russian gold has all been sold, stoled, or is still in the permafrost, down deep cold. In '90,91,92 every bigwig in the former USSR what could get their hands on a bar of aboveground shiny yello sent it packing out of the country. Russian mining industry is a basket case. Their current unravelling gangster society is still very inhospitable to foreign investment. Their strategic metal stashes are getting down to the bottom of the barrel. Fortunately, their Sevruga caviar is still very nice and an excellent value. Just make sure it's fresh!


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 06:42
George Cole Deflation>(Deflation):
Credit card companies tighening up:




July 6, 1997


Credit Industry Tightens Terms on Many Cards

By SAUL HANSELL

he last few years have been heaven for credit-card users, who have been inundated by
offers promising no annual fees, low-interest teaser rates, frequent-flier miles, bonus
points and assorted other goodies.

Well, the platinum parade is coming to an end.

Credit-card companies, bloody from brutal competition and a rise in the number of customers
defaulting on their bills, have started to raise fees and interest rates, limit credit lines and scale
back the most generous bonus programs.

The competitive battle led to an irrational balance in favor of the consumer, said Michael
Urkowitz, the executive vice president in charge of credit cards at Chase Manhattan Bank, the
nation's largest bank.

The pendulum is set to swing back, he said, as a banking and consumer-credit industry
rationalization cuts back some of the most lucrative card offers.

Seamus P. McMahon, a partner at the First Manhattan Consulting Group, said: The
credit-card industry is in the same position as the airline industry was three or four years ago.
The players have come to the conclusion that too often they are giving away the goods for far
less than their costs.

The pressure is on because losses from bad credit-card debt have reached 7 percent of total
balances, a higher level than even in the depths of the 1990-91 recession. Personal
bankruptcies are increasing at a 27 percent annual pace.

This business dipped further down into the barrel in terms of reaching people with marginal
ability and willingness to pay their debts, said William L. Hodges, the executive vice
president for marketing for the Discover Card, a unit of Morgan Stanley, Dean Witter,
Discover & Co.

Some evidence of the cutbacks is visible: Last week, Ford Motor Co. canceled a credit card,
with Citibank, that offered generous rebates on new cars. And Advanta, once a rapidly
growing credit-card company that has been hit with sharply higher losses, has recently raised
interest rates by two percentage points on most of its accounts and has imposed a raft of new
fees.

Much of the retreat, though, is so subtle that many consumers may not even notice a change.
Certainly there is no escape from those annoying early morning and dinner-hour phone calls
from credit-card solicitors.

But the number of credit-card mailings is already down sharply, and experts estimate that there
will be 25 percent fewer offers for credit cards than there were at the peak two years ago. And
the offers are not as lucrative as they once were.

For example, 75 percent of gold-card offers in the mail a year ago offered a low introductory
interest rate, according to BAI Global, which tracks card mailings. This year, only 58 percent
offer the teaser rates. But in a sign that card companies are still competing heavily for the best
customers, those who do get the rates will pay less -- 5.68 percent, against 6.58 percent a year
ago.

Similarly, card companies are trying to impose fees, but only on some customers. Being late
with one payment these days or going over a credit line by a single dollar can cost $20 at most
big card companies. Such nuisance fees increased by 55 percent last year, according to
Credit Card Management magazine.

Issuers are trying to come up with other unusual fees. Advanta wants to impose a $25 fee on
people who close their accounts. Last year, General Electric imposed a $25 fee on some card
holders if they always paid their bills in full to avoid interest charges.

The total cost of credit cards -- combining interest rates, annual fees and other nuisance fees --
started going up sharply last summer. It now represents 18.72 percent of card balances,
compared with 17.96 percent a year ago, according to a study of large card issuers by Moody's
Investors Services.

A similar reining in can be seen in what are known as co-branded programs -- cards linked to
companies like airlines, auto makers, gas stations and retail stores. Few cards were as good a
deal to consumers as the Ford program, now defunct, and the General Motors card it imitated.

Those awarded a rebate of 5 percent of all card purchases toward the price of a new car. The
credit card linked to Sunoco gas stations, for example, just lowered its rebate from 2 percent to
1 percent of purchases.

The new co-branded cards these days don't have the razzmatazz they had a couple of years
ago, said James J. Daly, the editor of Credit Card Management magazine.

In some cases, banks are canceling the programs entirely because they are losing money.

Some banks thought that any co-branded deal would make money, said Joseph Saunders,
president of the credit-card unit of Household International, which runs the GM card. They
didn't know what they were doing and they got hammered.

Credit-card issuers receive a fee from the stores where charges are made equal to about 1.25
percent of the purchase amount. Saunders said some issuers had set up bonus programs that
gave away rewards costing 1.5 percent of purchases or more.

If the card does not carry a fee, that is a recipe for losing money unless the card company has
the skill to aim the cards nearly exclusively at customers who allow unpaid balances to build
and pay hefty finance charges.

Household has been quick to adjust the terms of its cards when it concludes it is not making
money. It cut the rebate on the GM gold card, for example, from 10 percent to 5 percent last
year. And it is imposing annual fees on some card holders who do not actively use their
accounts.

Raising prices in credit cards is harder than in almost any other business because it can have
exactly the opposite of the intended effect. If an issuer simply increases the fee or interest rate
on a broad group of customers, the most creditworthy card holders will find better deals
elsewhere, leaving only those customers who have few alternatives, if any.

So instead of increasing its fee income substantially, the credit card company that
indiscriminately raised prices might instead be faced with unusually high losses for bad loans.

That is why the bigger, more sophisticated card companies are using their computers to analyze
each customer, raising prices for some people and lowering them for others. We are repricing
our accounts both up and down, said Urkowitz of Chase.

Similarly, many card issuers are constantly monitoring the payment performance and debt
levels of customers and increasing or decreasing their credit lines accordingly.

Some customers may get upset when their limits are cut, acknowledges Hodges of Discover,
but the practice still makes sense from the company's viewpoint. After all, people are
constantly moving up or down, getting in better or worse financial shape, he said.

The credit-card industry's current interest in raising prices and reducing risk is changing the
tactics that a consumer should use to get the best rate.

For the last few years, the best strategy was to flip from one low teaser rate to the next,
assuming the mail carrier would always bring another low-rate offer.

Now it is probably better for consumers to concentrate all their spending and borrowing with
one or two card companies, experts say. The more card holders appear to be profitable and
stable customers, the more likely their card companies will try to keep them.

The companies may not volunteer their best deals, however, so consumers should periodically
call their card companies to ask them to waive fees and lower their rates, experts say.

The customers on whom card companies make money are getting better and better terms,
said Eric K. Clemons, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
But the ones on whom they don't make money are getting terrible terms.


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Copyright 1997 The New York Times Company







Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 06:40
Mike Sheller looking far, far ahead>(looking far, far ahead):
Now that the gloom is so pervasive that even some goldbugs are mourning the demise of the shiny yello as either money, or a store of value, perhaps it's the time to speculate ( you'll pardon the expression ) on the return of a specie standard in the next century. While I realize most visitors to Kitco are a bit more short term oriented, IF the worst case financial fiasco were to happen, as some postulate here, AND the world was eventually forced back to a precious metal backing for currencies, notes, and electronic account balances, then would it not make sense for SILVER, not gold, to be a very important species of specie? Revaluing all that paper out there in the world in terms of the existing supply of gold would bring currencies, the US dollar for example, to tens of thousands of them per ounce. In terms of pure economics, this really would not change anything, as notes can be printed for any fraction of value so long as the amount of metal is available for transfer. But this would be a gargantuan embarrassment to governments, and really make it a pain for consumers who wanted to price a stick of gum in terms of a fraction of an ounce of gold. Silver, perhaps, might find revaluation under such a scenario, at over one hundred dollars per ounce, or more. Gold would return to transactional use between nations and large institutions, while silver would play a significant role in the general economy. More significant than even current die-hard silver bulls could imagine. I realize this is a worst case ( for the more greedily perverse among us, perhaps best case ) scenario. Nevertheless, it's always interesting to consider all possibilities.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 06:30
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Yes. All those things are going to happen. Better still, death has been cancelled as we are already in heaven there is no need for it.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 06:25
still confused myorke@merlin.net>(myorke@merlin.net):
So we think that it might be South Korea, Japan or Russia.I was under the impression that Russia had numerous AU mines. Perhaps they don't have the financial wherewithal to mine them and top up their coffers. If that's the case surely they wouldn't spend precious roubles on dumb old AU! And our friends in Japan have already threatened to dump US bonds and buy more AU. I suppose the reason that South Koreans are said to have purchased large stocks of gold is that they are probably the nearest that the western world has to a possible flash point ( apart from the bad news out of Israel ) .
Have increasingly complex derivative sales of AU meant that physical stocks are not there to cover any eventuality?
Or are we just about to enter the golden era of peace and civility, where it only rains at night and we spend all day watching pigs fly?


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 06:21
Donald @Home>(@Home):
This is from the Financial Times. South Korea: Seoul acts on financial
controls

Originally published: TUESDAY JUNE 17 1997

By John Burton in Seoul

The South Korean government yesterday agreed to curb the influence of
the powerful finance ministry by granting independence to the central bank
and transferring financial supervision to a new watchdog agency.

The controversial proposal could, however, still be blocked by parliament
and protests by civil servants worried about job losses.

The sweeping reorganisation of the government's financial powers reflects
recommendations two weeks ago by an independent presidential
commission on financial reform.

The creation of a single watchdog agency to replace three regulatory
bodies overseeing banks, securities and insurance companies was taken in
response to recent large corporate bankruptcies and corruption scandals
that revealed apparently lax financial supervision.

The sudden collapse of the Hanbo steel group in January under nearly
£3.6bn in debts caught authorities by surprise. A bribes-for-loans scandal
ensued that has led to the conviction of 11 senior businessmen and
officials. Eight more politicians were on trial yesterday in connection with
the scandal.

The single regulatory body, the Financial Supervisory Board, will report to
the prime minister instead of the finance ministry, which is now responsible
for such regulation along with the central bank, which has a lesser role.

Analysts said the new agency would improve co-ordination among
regulatory authorities, but some questioned its effectiveness. Efficient
financial supervision cannot be accomplished just by creating a new
regulatory body. A quality improvement in financial supervision is also
needed, said Mr Kim Hee-seong of the Hyundai Research Institute.

The reforms would also give the central bank its long-sought role of
responsibility for monetary policy, which has been subject to the political
influence of the finance ministry.

Analysts believe central bank independence would result in more
consistent financial policies, and make stable prices more likely through a
monetary policy freed from political imperatives such as economic growth
at the cost of inflation.

The central bank's trade union, worried about job losses, has threatened to
strike if the proposal is approved by parliament. Workers at the other
regulatory agencies made similar threats.

Parliamentary approval may be delayed, which would, in effect, kill the
reforms.

Parliament is to meet for the last time this month before a presidential
election in December.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 06:00
Donald @Home>(@Home):
I had not hear South Korea mentioned at all in the several days since the news broke. I am sure that yours is the first mention.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 05:53
Bas @Australia>(@Australia):
Joe Gutnick, chairman of a major Australian gold producer, said in a radio interview this morning that 85% of Australian gold sales had been to South Korea. He did not enlarge on this, but it bears thinking about. Perhaps someone out there can verify this.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 05:52
Donald @Home>(@Home):
CONFUSED: We are confused too. My best guess for the buyer is Japan. Buyers in 1996 were China and Russia. And Russia can't even pay its own miners.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 05:39
confused myorke@merlin.net.au>(myorke@merlin.net.au):
So who is buying all this gold that's been offloaded over the past 6 months or so? Surely the secret buyers who have been buying off the secret sellers must be EXPECTING to take a bath on their investment.Doesn't sound like smart investment thinking to me!
And if there is not much point in having AU in your vaults because it ain't worth much, why not sell the whole lot? I see that the Australian
proceeds of $2.1 Billion have gone into buying foreign currency rather than investing in local economy which really needs it.
I'm very confused with all of this!
Hi ho


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 04:31
Rhyme delisle@max-net.com>(delisle@max-net.com):
Panda:I'm with you on your 23:17 post.I got my 10 bucks and I'm
headed downtown ...


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 01:40
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Good night all like heck! Everybody called it a day, I've got the place to myself again. Kind of like one of those Ghost towns where they had a gold strike, gold petered out, everybody left. OOPS! Guess I shouldna said that! Just a little gallows humor folks, guess us longs will get spanked on Monday, maybe more, but it will all work out.


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 01:25
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Donald: Kaplan has got your Rip Van Winkle, see very long term outlook near end. He's also bullish for anyone who needs cheered up. Is he a permabull or don't he read the papers !; ) ) Good night all
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/


Date: Sun Jul 06 1997 00:15
Bob @...for nuclear war buffs>(@...for nuclear war buffs):
Report: World on Brink of War in 1995
July 5, 1997

OSLO, Norway ( AP ) - U.S. security experts believe the world was
on the brink of nuclear war when Russia mistook a harmless research
rocket for a NATO missile, a Norwegian newspaper reported.
The rocket was launched Jan. 25, 1995, from a civilian research
base on the Norwegian Arctic island of Andoya.
Although Russia had been informed of the plans, the launch
provoked great confusion - so much that Russian President Boris
Yeltsin said he consulted codes to be used when ordering a nuclear
strike.
``The Andoya alarm was the most serious in the history of
nuclear weapons,'' U.S. security expert Peter Pry was quoted by the
Bergens Tidene newspaper on Friday as saying. Pry, a former CIA
officer and now a Congressional adviser, addresses the incident in
his new book ``War Scare.''
The newspaper did not specify what sources Pry uses for his
assessment of the danger.
The rocket was part of a NASA-funded project to study the
Northern Lights. The rocket never came near Russian territory, and
fell into the Arctic Ocean as planned.
``The Russian military made all preparations for starting a
nuclear war except making the decision to launch,'' the newspaper
quoted Pry as saying.
Another researcher, David R. Markov of the U.S. Institute for
Defense Analysis, also called the incident extremely serious. ``The
general staff had been authorized to take all necessary steps, ''
he told the newspaper.
The U.S. Embassy was closed Friday for the Independence Day
holiday.

Goodnight


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